week ending Oct 31

 Fed lowers Main Street loan threshold in bid to boost interest— The Federal Reserve is lowering the minimum loan size for its middle-market business rescue program by more than half to make the program more available to smaller businesses. The central bank said Friday that small businesses seeking credit from the Main Street Lending Program can access loans as small as $100,000, down from the previous cutoff of $250,000, and that fees will be adjusted accordingly. The $600 billion program, which is funded by the Fed and the Treasury Department through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act, is available to businesses with fewer than 15,000 employees or less than $5 billion in annual revenue. The Fed started purchasing majority stakes in loans in early July, but interest in the program has been slow. To date, the Fed has purchased just 400 loans worth $3.7 billion — a fraction of the program’s size. This is the third time the Fed is lowering the minimum loan size of the program. The original cutoff was $1 million, which was then lowered to $500,000 and then later to $250,000. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had signaled before that another reduction may be a step too far. “The current facility would not work for much smaller loans,” Powell said at a congressional hearing last month. “We’d have to start a new facility that had much less protection for the taxpayer.” But the Fed has faced criticism from lawmakers, community groups and community bankers that Main Street was ill-suited for smaller businesses. Less than 15% of the Main Street loans that the Fed had purchased as of Oct. 8 were for less than $1 million. Effective Friday, lenders won’t be required to pay a transaction fee for loans meeting the program’s terms that are less than $250,000, which could encourage banks to originate these smaller loans. The Fed, through its special-purpose vehicle, will also pay lenders 50 basis points per year for servicing loans less than $250,000. Borrowers, meanwhile, will pay lenders an origination fee of up to 2% of the value of the loan. Borrowers taking out loans worth more than $250,000 pay lenders an origination fee of up to 1% of the amount of the loan. The Fed also issued an updated frequently-asked-questions document clarifying that loans made through the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program worth less than $2 million can be excluded from the calculation of total debt. The amount of a company's outstanding debt helps determine what loan size it qualifies for in the Main Street program.

 Congresswoman Katie Porter Says Fed Is Playing “Kingmaker on Wall Street” and “Appears Corrupt” --Pam Martens --In a letter to the Fed last Wednesday, Porter wrote that “using billions of taxpayer dollars to play kingmaker on Wall Street—effectively awarding billions of dollars to a handful of corporations—using a decision-making process that you have not made public, appears corrupt.”Porter was talking about several distinct issues. First, the Fed had stated that its corporate bond buying program would not include the debt of the Wall Street banks. Nonetheless, wrote Porter, the Fed “is using billions of taxpayer dollars to purchase the debt of banks like JPMorgan Chase.” The Fed is making those purchases by buying debt-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).Porter quotes from a September 21 Yale School of Management study titled “Despite Stated Exclusion, the Fed Is Buying Bank Debt.” The report notes that “a close review of its holdings reveals that by buying exchange traded funds, [the Federal Reserve] has indirectly bought $2 billion of bank bonds—over 15% of its total corporate bond holdings.”Porter is particularly critical of the fact that the Fed is using money from the pandemic stimulus legislation passed in the spring and known as the CARES Act to facilitate these corporate bond purchases. Porter writes: “Your decision to buy corporate debt with taxpayer dollars directly benefited Wall Street and the world’s richest corporate executives.”The CARES Act called for the Treasury Department to hand over $454 billion of taxpayers’ money to backstop any losses experienced by the Fed on its myriad lending facilities. The game plan was that the Fed would leverage up the $454 billion to approximately $4.54 trillion and buy up the sludge on Wall Street. For reasons as yet unexplained, the Treasury has not turned over the bulk of those funds to the Fed. Exactly what happened to the rest of the money is unknown. (See $340 Billion of the $454 Billion that Mnuchin Was to Turn Over to the Fed is Unaccounted For.)According to the H.4.1 data released by the Fed for the week ending Wednesday, October 21, the Fed has received the following amounts from the Treasury: $10 billion for the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; $37.5 billion for the Corporate Credit Facilities; $37.5 billion for the Main Street Lending Facilities; $17.5 billion for the Municipal Liquidity Facility; $10 billion for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility; and $1.5 billion for the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility – for a total of $114 billion.The CARES Act was signed into law on March 27 of this year. It’s now exactly seven months later and nobody can explain what’s happened to $340 billion that was allocated by Congress.Porter’s letter also expresses outrage that the Fed has appointed a Wall Street investment firm that is one of the largest purveyors of ETFs to manage the corporate bond buying programs. Porter writes that the Fed’s decision to “appoint the CEO of BlackRock to administer the largest corporate bailout in history has resulted in windfall profits for a few hand-selected corporations and eroded public faith in an institution that is foundational to our democracy. To begin to remedy these wrongs, I request that you immediately develop and implement stronger safeguards against conflicts of interest. The profits that BlackRock has made off the exchange-traded funds (ETF) market since your March 23 announcement that the Fed would begin to purchase ETFs that invest in bank debt are clear evidence that any current precautions are wholly insufficient.”

Chicago Fed: "Index suggests slower, but still above-average growth in September" - "Index suggests slower, but still above-average growth in September." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by some further moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.27 in September from +1.11 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in September, but three of the four categories decreased from August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +1.33 in September from +3.22 in August. [Download report]  The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.  For a broad historical context, here is the complete CFNAI historical series dating from March 1967.

Curb your enthusiasm: Rapid third-quarter GDP growth won’t mean the economy has healed – EPI - On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release data showing the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2020. GDP is the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, and this is the last major data release before the presidential election, so it would be a big deal even in normal years.But it’s obviously not a normal year, and the GDP data released on Thursday will be for a quarter following the single fastest contraction of GDP in history, when the economy shrank at an annualized rate of 31.4% in the second quarter of 2020 due to the COVID-19 shock. The third-quarter data will show historically fast GDP growth—it could conceivably even see growth at a 31.4% annualized rate, for example. Some might be tempted to take too much solace in this rapid growth, and if growth in the third quarter looks to match the pace of contraction in the second quarter, some might even be tempted to declare the economic crisis near-over.This post highlights some reasons to temper enthusiasm (some that overlap with points made in this excellent Vox post), even in the face of a very large third-quarter growth number. There are five main reasons that I detail further below:

• The enormous contraction of GDP in the second quarter means any growth in the third quarter is coming off of a significantly smaller base of GDP.
• The COVID-19 shock caused rapid contraction of the economy even in the first quarter of 2020—so it’s not just the record-setting contraction of the second quarter which needs to be clawed back.
• It’s not just the level of pre-shock GDP that needs restored to make labor markets healthy, it’s the level this GDP would be at if it had continued to grow at its pre-shock rate.
• Because the COVID-19 shock has been so centered in low-wage sectors, any given dollar value of GDP lost translates into far more people who have lost jobs.
• Third-quarter growth was driven by the momentum of economic reopening and occurred with the tailwind of the generous recovery measures included in the CARES Act. Neither of these boosts will help in the future absent radical policy change.

The second–quarter GDP disaster means growth going forward is off of a much smaller base U.S. GDP shrank at a 31.4% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2020 (this means the economy shrank by 9% in that quarter—if that same pace was sustained for an entire year, the economy would be 31.4% smaller than it started).  Concretely, 31.4% growth in the third quarter would still leave GDP that was about 2.5% smaller than it was before the second quarter COVID-19 shock hit.

BEA: Real GDP Increased at 33.1% Annualized Rate in Q3 - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 25, 2020....The increase in real GDP reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in federal government spending (reflecting fewer fees paid to administer the Paycheck Protection Program loans) and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.The increase in PCE reflected increases in services (led by health care as well as food services and accommodations) and goods (led by motor vehicles and parts as well as clothing and footwear). The increase in private inventory investment primarily reflected an increase in retail trade (led by motor vehicle dealers). The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by automotive vehicles, engines, and parts as well as capital goods). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in equipment (led by transportation equipment). The increase in residential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs. This graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).This graph is through Q3 2020, and real GDP is currently off 3.5% from the previous peak.  For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.The advance Q3 GDP report, at 33.1% annualized, was close to expectations.Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at 40.7% annualized rate in Q3, up from 33.2% decrease in Q2.  Residential investment (RI) increased at a 59.3% rate in Q3. Equipment investment increased at a 70.1% annualized rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 14.6% pace. 

Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 31.4%, Record High - The Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 33.1% (33.08% to two decimal places), a record increase from -31.4% (-31.38% to two decimal places) for the Q2 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 31.0%.Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 25, 2020.Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on the Second-Quarter 2020 GDP EstimateThe increase in third quarter GDP reflected continued efforts to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note. [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.17% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.01%.Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 17.7% below trend. A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.27%. All twelve recessions over this timeframe have begun at a higher level of current real YoY GDP.In summary, the Q3 GDP Advance Estimate of 33.1% was slightly better than expected, and a record gain for GDP.

U.S. economy posts record growth in third-quarter; COVID-19 scarring to last  (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at a historic pace in the third quarter as the government injected more than $3 trillion worth of pandemic relief which fueled consumer spending, but the deep scars from the COVID-19 recession could take a year or more to heal. The 33.1% annualized growth rate reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday, the last major economic scorecard before next Tuesday’s presidential election, did not ease the human tragedy inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic, with tens of millions of Americans still unemployed and more than 222,000 dead. The economy remains 3.5% below its level at the end of 2019 and incomes plunged in the third quarter. Nevertheless, with five days remaining to Election Day President Donald Trump, trailing in most national opinion polls, cheered the report. “Biggest and Best in the History of our Country, and not even close,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “So glad this great GDP number came out before November 3rd.” Trump’s Democratic challenger Joe Biden highlighted the lack of full recovery and the rapidly petering growth spurt. “We are in a deep hole and President Trump’s failure to act has meant that third-quarter growth wasn’t nearly enough to get us out of (it),” said Biden. “The recovery that is happening is helping those at the top, but leaving tens of millions of working families and small businesses behind.” According to Christopher Way, an associate professor of government at Cornell University, the report “will have absolutely zero effect on the election and it is economic performance in the first half of an election year that matters.” The rebound in gross domestic product followed a 31.4% rate of contraction in the second quarter, the deepest since the government started keeping records in 1947. On a year-on-year basis GDP jumped 7.4% last quarter after sinking 9.0% in the April-June period. The rebound reversed about two-thirds of the 10.1% drop in GDP in the first half. By comparison, the economy contracted 4% peak to trough during the 2007-09 Great Recession. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP expanding at a 31% rate in the July-September quarter. The economy plunged into recession in February. The government’s rescue package provided a lifeline for many businesses and the unemployed, juicing up consumer spending, which on its own contributed 76.3% to the surge in GDP. But government funding has been depleted with no deal in sight for another round of relief. New COVID-19 cases are spiraling across the country, forcing restrictions on businesses like restaurants and bars. “We still don’t have the level of GDP surpassing the pre-COVID level until fourth-quarter 2021 and closing the output gap will take even more time,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.

U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3 report, beating expectations - Coming off the worst quarter in history, the U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace ever in the third quarter as a nation battered by an unprecedented pandemic started to put itself back together, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Third-quarter gross domestic product, a measure of the total goods and services produced in the July-to-September period, expanded at a 33.1% annualized pace, according to the department's initial estimate for the period. The gain came after a 31.4% plunge in the second quarter and was better than the 32% estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The previous post-World War II record was the 16.7% burst in the first quarter of 1950. Markets reacted positively to the news, with Wall Street erasing a loss at the open and turning mostly positive. "It's obviously good news that the economy bounced back in the third quarter," said Eric Winograd, senior economist at AllianceBernstein. "There's still a lot of work to do here and the pace of improvement ... is going to slow. The stimulus programs that provided much of the economic lift last quarter have expired or are expiring. Fiscal support is diminishing. That is part of the reason that the pace of growth is going to slow from here." Increased consumption along with sold gains in business and residential investment as well as exports fueled the third-quarter rebound. Decreases in government spending following the expiration of the CARES Act rescue funding subtracted from GDP. The powerful growth pace came after states across the country shut down large swaths of activity in an effort to stem the spread of Covid-19, which the World Health Organization declared a pandemic on March 11. Some 228,000 people have died in the U.S. from the virus, which has infected nearly 9 million in the country. The economy has been in a technical recession since February, as first-quarter growth declined at a 5% pace. While the news on Q3 was good for the $21.2 trillion economy, the U.S. faces a tougher road ahead as coronavirus cases increase and worries grow over the health and economic impacts. Nearly half the 22 million jobs lost in March and April remain unfilled and the unemployment rate remains at 7.9%, more than double its pre-pandemic level as 12.6 million Americans are still out of work. The GDP release came just five days before Election Day, which culminates a heated battle between President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden.  "This is going to be seized upon by both ends of the political spectrum as either evidence of the strength of the post-lockdown economic rebound or a cursory warning that the gains could be short-lived," said James McCann, senior global economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments. "The reality is that the GDP numbers demonstrate that the U.S. economy did indeed rebound strongly as lockdown measures were lifted."

U.S. Economy Recovered Significant Ground in Record Third-Quarter GDP Rebound – WSJ - The economy grew at a record pace in the third quarter—increasing 7.4% over the prior quarter and at a 33.1% annual rate—recovering about two-thirds of the ground it lost earlier in the coronavirus pandemic. Gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—jumped as pent-up consumer demand and government support helped power spending after disruptions related to Covid-19 eased. The increase in growth, the biggest jump in records dating to 1947, followed a record decline earlier in the pandemic when the virus disrupted business activity across the country. That puts the economy about 3.5% smaller than at the end of last year, before the pandemic hit.“Record gains aren’t enough to get us out of the hole that Covid left us in,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said. She cited risks from a recent U.S. surge in infections as a potential economic headwind in the current fourth quarter, saying, “It’s hard to reopen an economy unless workers and consumers feel safe and healthy.”The third-quarter GDP increase followed a 9% quarter-to-quarter decline in the second quarter, or a 31.4% annualized drop, adjusted for inflation and seasonal fluctuations. U.S. GDP is normally reported at an annual rate, or as if the quarter’s pace of growth continued for a full year. But the pandemic triggered extreme swings in output—a severe drop followed by a quick rebound—making the annualized numbers misleading because no one expects second- or third-quarter numbers to continue for a full year.The Commerce Department’s GDP report provides the last major quantitative snapshot of the economy before Tuesday’s presidential election, with President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden offering contrasting views on what the growth figures mean.Mr. Trump said the increase was proof that the pandemic-induced economic collapse was turning a corner thanks to his administration. “Next year will be FANTASTIC!!!” Mr. Trump said in a tweet. “So glad this great GDP number came out before November 3rd.”Mr. Biden said many people won’t feel like they are better off following the growth figures. “The recovery is slowing if not stalling; and the recovery that is happening is helping those at the top, but leaving tens of millions of working families and small businesses behind,” he said. Recent data suggest improvement in the economy continued into the fourth quarter, though at a slower pace than the summer’s resurgence.Forecasters predict the economy will expand more slowly through the fourth quarter as the temporary jolt from the economy’s reopening and government stimulus fades, with unemployment expected to remain high this winter. They also project the economy will end 2020 smaller than a year earlier, but grow in 2021.

Record-breaking increase in GDP -  James_Hamilton - The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s the largest change ever recorded, even bigger than the -31.4% annual rate now reported for 2020:Q2. What do those numbers tell us?The first thing to note is that “annual rate” refers to what the growth rate would be if growth were to continue for a full year at the pace observed in the third quarter. It’s often helpful to think in terms of those units. But in this case, there is zero possibility that growth will continue at this pace. Real GDP in Q3 was actually 1.074 times as big as real GDP in Q2. The calculation 1.0744 ^ 4 = 1.331 is where the reported 33.1% number comes from.The second thing to note is that even if real GDP had fallen by 31% in Q2 and grown by 33% in Q3 (which they didn’t), that wouldn’t leave us ahead of where we started. Because real GDP was so much lower in Q2 than in Q1, 31% of Q1 GDP (the base used to calculate a growth rate in Q2) is a much bigger number than 33% of Q2 GDP (the base used to calculate a growth rate in Q3). A 30% drop followed by a 30% gain would actually leave us down on net by 9% (0.7 x 1.3 = 0.91). This is one of many reasons why many economists prefer to use logarithms rather than percent changes. The change in the log of real GDP in Q2 was -0.094 and the change in Q3 was 0.071. Adding those two changes together gives -0.023, which is the correct summary of the situation: real GDP was about 2.3% lower in Q3 than it had been in Q1. None of this should distract us from acknowledging just how remarkable both the Q2 and Q3 numbers are. One measure of how unusual they are is based on the standard deviation of quarterly changes in the log of real GDP over 1947:Q2 to 2019:Q4. An observation that is 5 standard deviations from the historical average, or a 5-sigma event, is sometimes called a “black swan” — something that is not at all expected, until you see one. The fall in real GDP in Q2 was an 11-sigma event, and the increase in Q3 was a 7-sigma event. Both extremely remarkable. But combined they leave us 4 sigmas short of where we were in Q1, which itself was already down from normal.These numbers bring the Econbrowser recession indicator index up to 100.0% for Q2. As we’ve done every quarter for the last 15 years, we wait for one quarter of data revisions and updates before calculating the value for the previous quarter. Thus the number posted today (100.0%) is an assessment of the situation of the economy in 2020:Q2. The index had already been up to 97.1 for 2020:Q1. There is no question that we should count 2020:Q1 and Q2 as part of the 12th postwar U.S. recession. We will wait until the Q4 GDP data release before calculating a value for Q3, though it’s quite clear now that unless the numbers get drastically revised, the recession could now be said to be over and we’ve begun the recovery phase. The COVID recession is a remarkable outlier not just in terms of the magnitude of the change in real GDP but also in terms of its composition. In all previous historical recessions, consumer spending on services was quite stable during the downturn. This time consumer services have been the biggest part of the story. By contrast, purchases of consumer durables usually take a bit hit in a recession. The decrease in Q2 was pretty minor, and Q3 saw a big boom that now puts durables way up relative to the start of the year. Money saved from restaurants and travel is showing up in spending on big-ticket items.

Q3 GDP: Investment - Investment has been weak for some time, and slumped in Q1, and fell off a cliff in Q2 along with the overall economy.  Investment bounced back in Q3, especially for residential investment and investment in equipment - but not for non-residential structures. The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy. In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue. Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern doesn't apply. The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories. Residential investment (RI) increased at a 59.3% annual rate in Q3.  Equipment investment increased at a 70.1% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 14.6% annual rate. The contribution to Q3 GDP from investment in private inventories was 6.6 percentage points. On a 3 quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is up solidly, equipment (green) is up, and nonresidential structures (blue) is down sharply. I'll post more on the components of non-residential investment once the supplemental data is released. The second graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP. Residential Investment as a percent of GDP increased in Q3.  RI as a percent of GDP is still close to previous lows, and I expected RI to continue to increase further in this cycle.   Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.The third graph shows non-residential investment in structures, equipment and "intellectual property products".   Investment in non-residential structures declined in Q3, and will probably be weak for some time (hotel occupancy is low, office and mall vacancy rates are rising).

Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly.  The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average. This data is as of Oct 25th.  The seven day average is down 64% from last year (36% of last year).mThe second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 24, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Note that dining is generally turning down in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York - but holding up in the southern states. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 22nd. Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $15 million last week (compared to usually around $150 million per week in the early Fall). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - prior to 2020).This data is through October 17th.Hotel occupancy is currently down 30.7% year-over-year.  This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of October 16th, gasoline supplied was off about 13.6% YoY (about 86.4% of last year). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities."  There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through October 23rd for the United States and several selected cities.  According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is still only about 56% of the January level. It is at 46% in Chicago, and 59% in Houston.   Here is some interesting data from Kastle Systems on office occupancy. This is just a screen shot. Here is the interactive data. This data is through October 21st. Currently Office Occupancy is 27% of normal, with a low of 15% in San Francisco, and a high of 41% in Dallas.Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).  This data is through Friday, October 23rd.

 Business Cycle Indicators, October 30th - Menzie Chinn - With the release of personal income and sales figures today, we see the continued deceleration in economic activity continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for October as of 10/30 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NFP observation for October is based on Bloomberg consensus as of 10/30. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (10/1 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations. Manufacturing and trade industry sales were essentially flat in August, while personal income ex.-transfers rose. That being said, real disposable personal income is down 8.7% relative to 2020M04 peak. Employment is slated to further decelerate, with the Bloomberg consensus increase at 600K, down from 850K two weeks ago.A lot of the dynamics at the monthly frequency are obscured at the quarterly, which was discussed by Jim yesterday in “Record breaking in GDP”. For instance the partial snapback in Q3 is probably dissipated at M05. Hence, it might be of interest to consider how monthly GDP moves relative to quarterly explicitly. Unfortunately, IHS- Markit hasn’t released its September figure. I use reported July and August figures and actual BEA advance Q3 to infer the September value.Figure 2: Quarterly GDP (blue bars), monthly GDP (black line), imputed September monthly GDP (red square), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2020Q3 advance release, IHS Markit October 1 release, and author’s calculations. Monthly GDP decelerates from 19% to 7% in July and August to (implied) 2% (SAAR) in September.All this reinforces my view that — with no fiscal recovery package in sight and Covid-19 infections/hospitalizations surging — we are in for continued deceleration. The V ends here…unless and until a new competent administration is installed.

Mitch McConnell just adjourned the Senate until November 9, ending the prospect of additional coronavirus relief until after the election - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday motioned for the Senate to adjourn until November 9.  Congress hasn't reached a deal on a new COVID-19 relief package in over five months. Most of the benefits in legislation worth $3 trillion enacted over the spring have been used.The move shuts down the Senate from doing any legislative business, including reaching a deal on additional coronavirus aid, until after voters have cast their ballots, and it comes on the heels of Monday's 52-48 vote to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the US Supreme Court.David Popp, a representative for McConnell, told Business Insider there was "nothing to add" to what he described as McConnell's "extensive remarks on the continued Democrat filibuster on COVID relief in the Senate." Alex Nguyen, a representative for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, referred Business Insider to a Saturday statement accusing Republicans of sidelining coronavirus talks while pushing forward with Barrett's confirmation process ahead of the election.

Pelosi presses Mnuchin for White House response on coronavirus aid - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday pressed the White House for a response to the Democrats' latest offer on emergency coronavirus relief, warning that Washington's failure to act quickly on another round of disaster aid will only heighten the health and economic fallout as the pandemic surges around the country.  “Your responses are critical for our negotiations to continue," Pelosi wrote in a letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin this week. "The President’s words that ‘after the election, we will get the best stimulus package you have ever seen’ only have meaning if he can get [Senate Majority Leader] Mitch McConnell to take his hand off the pause button and get Senate Republican Chairmen moving toward agreement with their House counterparts.”  The letter arrives just five days before Election Day, with both parties seeking to blame the other for the stalemate that has prevented an agreement on another multitrillion-dollar infusion of emergency funding to prop up struggling states, businesses, families and health care providers. A Morning Consult poll eeleased earlier this week found Americans blame Republicans and President Trump slightly more than Pelosi and the Democrats for not being able to strike a deal. Independent voters surveyed blamed the GOP, 43 percent to 34 percent. Pelosi and Mnuchin had been in exhaustive talks through September and much of October in search of an elusive bipartisan deal that could pass through both chambers of Congress and win Trump's signature. But the sides were in disagreement over both the size of the package — the White House had offered roughly $1.9 trillion, while Democrats sought $2.2 trillion — and specific language dictating how the money would be spent. As the impasse grew longer, Trump, who had initially urged Congress to vote on another aid package before Election Day, shifted tactics, vowing to resume negotiations only in the lame-duck session. “After the election, we’ll get the best stimulus package you’ve ever seen,” the president said Tuesday. But Congress is already facing a Dec. 11 deadline to fund the government and prevent a shutdown, legislation that will consume much of the post-election oxygen on Capitol Hill. And given the uncertainty of the election results, many lawmakers are dubious that the feuding parties will be able to put aside differences and unite behind another massive stimulus bill before 2021.

Dems, Pelosi 'show no evidence of compromising' on key issues in coronavirus relief: Kudlow  - Democrats “show no evidence of compromising on the very key issues” in the latest coronavirus relief bill, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told “America’s Newsroom” on Thursday as he provided an update on stimulus negotiations. Kudlow added that he believes that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is “stringing us along.” The negotiations on the next installment of coronavirus relief started back in July, the month where the extra $600 in federal weekly unemployment benefits expired. Pressure mounted in early August. Talks went dark for a while and then intensified in the middle of last month because layoffs loomed in October. The sides believed they had an opportunity to forge a deal before the election. A coalition of Democrats and Republicans pressured Pelosi to cut a smaller deal with the administration. Pelosi spoke nearly every day with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin for weeks. President Trump dithered about what he wanted. He said first no bill. The president attempted to end negotiations – but Mnuchin didn’t listen. Trump then declared he wanted to spend more than even Pelosi. Mnuchin went to Senate Republicans with a $1.8 trillion proposal. They flat-out rejected that.

Mnuchin Says He First Saw Pelosi’s Letter on Coronavirus Stimulus Negotiations ‘In the Press’ - Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday said that he first learned about a letter House speaker Nancy Pelosi sent to him regarding coronavirus stimulus talks “in the press.” “I woke up this morning and read @SpeakerPelosi ’s letter to me in the press,” Mnuchin said on Twitter. “Enclosed is my response. Her ALL OR NONE approach is hurting hard-working Americans who need help NOW!” Pelosi aides said they had sent the letter to Mnuchin shortly after midnight, though the treasury secretary said he first saw the letter when Politico’s morning newsletter Playbook published it just after 6 a.m., according to the Washington Post. The letter outlined a number of outstanding issues in the negotiations including state and local aid, school funding, child-care money, tax credits for working families, unemployment insurance aid and liability protections for businesses. Mnuchin’s letter said that because Pelosi had sent the letter “to my office at midnight and simultaneously released it to the press, I can unfortunately only conclude it is a political stunt.” He tweeted his letter one minute after sending it to Pelosi’s office. In the letter he mentioned that the pair had negotiated nearly every day over the past 45 days “in an attempt to reach a serious bipartisan compromise,” as coronavirus cases surged and the economy struggled. Pelosi’s office pushed back against Mnuchin’s response. “It is disappointing that the White House wasted time on this letter instead of meaningful responses to meet the needs of the American people,” Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill said.

Democrats, Trump Eye Coronavirus Stimulus Deal in Lame Duck Session - AFTER UNSUCCESSFUL attempts to reach a deal on a coronavirus stimulus package before the election, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled Thursday that she hopes to pass additional aid during the lame-duck session in Congress as cases again surge around the U.S. Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had been locked in a series of negotiations over the past few weeks with both parties expressing optimism and saying they made considerable progress. But prospects for a deal before Nov. 3 dimmed amid ongoing disagreements on several provisions like state and local aid, language surrounding expanded coronavirus testing and liability protections for businesses. cNow with the presidential race five days away, Pelosi said she's "confident" about Democratic nominee Joe Biden's chances and would want to give him a "clean slate" if he wins and assumes office in January. She detailed a busy agenda for a potential Biden administration and Democratic House, saying they'd focus on among other things infrastructure, a campaign finance reform bill that previously passed the House but stalled in the GOP-led Senate and lower costs for prescription drugs. But Pelosi emphasized that her caucus wouldn't accept just any bill in the lame-duck session which runs through the end of the year – even if Biden wins the White House. The California Democrat rebuffed a question about whether she'd accept a smaller, narrower bill before the end of the year with the likelihood of getting additional relief under a President Biden. "We're not talking size, we're talking quality. We are not going to take a small bill that has the bulk of reinforcing funds to the richest people in America while questioning the integrity of people on unemployment insurance," Pelosi said at her Thursday press conference, the last one before Tuesday's elections. "I want a bill for two reasons: The American people need real help. And second of all, we have plenty of work to do in a Joe Biden administration," she added. "We want to have as clean a slate as possible going into January." Discussions about a possible lame-duck deal come as the U.S. nears 9 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and a death toll of more than 228,000. Pelosi isn't the only one hoping for a deal in the near future. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly waffled on pursuing another virus relief package, also says he wants to strike a deal following the election, promising that "we'll get the best stimulus package you've ever seen." But the president has gone back and forth on another coronavirus package – first calling off bipartisan negotiations, then urging negotiators to pass a bill before the election and now saying that a stimulus deal will be reached in the lame-duck session, though it may no longer be one supported by both parties. Trump has recently predicted that Republicans will take back the House, but election prognosticators believe that Democrats are on track to not only keep their majority but also potentially expand it. [ READ: The Status of a Second $1,200 Stimulus Check – And What Americans Would Do With It ] "Once we get past the election, we're going to get it. It may be bipartisan, it may not have to be. Depending on if we win the House, it won't have to be. Right after the election, we'll get it one way or the other," Trump said in an interview for television host Jon Taffer's podcast.

Pelosi signals Covid deal possible before January - Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday she’s still hoping to clinch a massive coronavirus relief deal with the White House before the end of the year, despite predicting a sweeping Joe Biden victory next week that could deliver Democrats control of Washington in January. “I feel very confident that Joe Biden will be elected president on Tuesday,” Pelosi told reporters at her last weekly press conference before the Nov. 3 election. “We want to have as clean a slate as possible going into January.” Democrats have been unsuccessfully pushing a trillion-dollar-plus stimulus package for months. And while Pelosi has insisted she is getting closer to a deal with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, some of her own lawmakers are skeptical that President Donald Trump or the current GOP-controlled Senate would agree to a giant stimulus package in the wake of potentially big Election Day losses. But others have argued that Republicans might be more eager for a deal in the lame duck session if they’re losing the White House and possibly their Senate majority come January. Some Democrats have privately said in that case it would make more sense to wait until the new year, when Republicans have less negotiating power. Trump signaled his desire to sign a stimulus deal in the lame duck during a podcast interview that aired Thursday. But the president also predicted Republicans would win the House, making the path to a deal easier for him — something election forecasters and most in Washington don’t think is remotely likely. “We’re going to do a very big package as soon as the election is over,” Trump told podcast host Jon Taffer. “Right after the election we’re going to get it one way or the other, it will happen.”

White House makes clear, “We’re not going to control the pandemic” - In an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union” talk show, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows made clear that the Trump Administration has abandoned any efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. “We’re not going to control the pandemic,” Meadows said, instead claiming, “We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics, and other mitigation areas.” Meadows’ statement is the most explicit declaration to date that the White House is implementing a policy of “herd immunity,” allowing the disease to spread unchecked throughout the population. Last week, two unnamed White House officials told the press on background that the Trump Administration supports the Great Barrington Declaration, which calls for the abandonment of efforts to contain the disease, including the prohibition of large crowds and other “superspreader” events. But Meadows’ statement makes clear what this policy, cynically presented by its apologists as “protecting the elderly,” will be in practice: nothing will be done to stop the spread of the disease. Instead, those who fall severely ill are to rely on therapeutics, which have proven only marginally effective, and vaccines, which do not exist. That is, they will simply be allowed to fall sick, and the elderly will be allowed to die. After Meadows made these statements, CNN moderator Jake Tapper said, “We’re getting the hook from your team over there at the White House,” cutting the interview short. It can be surmised that Meadows, who did not seem to be fully in possession of himself, said too bluntly what the administration is actually doing.These comments come amid a massive resurgence of the pandemic in the United States. On Friday and Saturday, the US recorded a record 81,417 and 79,453 cases respectively. All over the country, hospitals are once again filling up, as epidemiologists warn that hundreds of thousands more people will die this fall and winter. The United States has had 8.89 million cases of COVID-19 and over 230,000 deaths.

U.S. hits 9 million Covid-19 cases less than a week before Election Day - The United States logged 9 million Covid-19 cases on Thursday just hours after reporting a single day record of 80,622 infections, the latest NBC News tally showed.It was the first time the U.S. crossed the 80,000-case threshold since the start of the pandemic and the third time in a week that a daily case record was broken, the data showed.The 996 Covid-19 fatalities reported Wednesday raised the national death toll to near 230,000, which is the most in the world, according to the Johns Hopkins University Covid-19 dashboard.The dire development came with Election Day less than a week away and as President Donald Trump insists repeatedly on the campaign trail that “we are rounding the turn” on the pandemic. Covid-19 infections have been spreading across the U.S. at the fastest rate since the crisis began even before the country hit the dismal benchmark of 9 million coronavirus infections.  In other coronavirus news:

• Black Americans have been hit especially hard economically by the crisis. Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law and adviser, added insult to injury by claiming falsely that Black Americans were still struggling on Trump's watch because they simply do not work hard enough.
• The Trump administration, which critics say was slow to respond to the pandemic, has gotten "woefully behind" instockpiling medical gloves as coronavirus cases have been surging again, experts told NBC News.
• Wisconsin, where the pandemic response has been paralyzed at times by political in-fighting, was running out of ICU beds and nurses to help infected patients, The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinelreported. The state has a new infection rate of 27.71 percent, one of the highest in the country.
• Major League Baseball has chastised Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner for breaking isolation and celebrating winning the World Series with his teammates after he tested positive for the coronavirus.
• A Long Island wedding and birthday bash turned into two Covid-19 “superspreader” events that infected more than 50 people and left nearly 300 in quarantine, New York officials said.
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a Covid-19 survivor, was under increasing pressure to impose new restrictions as the U.K. reported 100,000 new infections a day. France and Germany are already on lockdown as Europe has been hit by a second wave of Covid-19 cases.

Overnight the Pennsylvania reported its 200,000th coronavirus case.Minnesota, another state where Biden appears to be leading, also reported a record number of new cases with 2,872, the date showed. At least two Trump-friendly states also set records for Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, the data showed. Kansas recorded 3,369 cases, and South Dakota logged 1,270 cases.Ohio, a pivotal state that polls indicate could go either way, topped 3,000 new coronavirus cases for the first time, The Columbus Dispatch reported. "The virus is raging throughout the state of Ohio," Gov. Mike DeWine said. "There's no place to hide."

Pence's 'body man' among aides who tested positive for coronavirus: report -Vice President Mike Pence’s “body man” was among the aides who tested positive for COVID-19, CNN reported on Sunday.Zach Bauer, who serves as the vice president’s “body man,” was one of the staffers who tested positive earlier this week, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN. The duties of a body man include accompanying Pence throughout the day and night and assisting him with a variety of activities. At least five people in Pence’s circle have tested positive for coronavirus in recent days, sources told CNN, including chief of staff Marc Short, which the vice president’s office confirmed Saturday evening, andadviser Marty Obst, who is not a government employee."Today, Marc Short, Chief of Staff to the Vice President, tested positive for COVID-19, began quarantine and assisting in the contact tracing process," Pence's press secretary Devin O'Malley said in a statement Saturday. "Vice President Pence and Mrs. Pence both tested negative for COVID-19 today, and remain in good health.""While Vice President Pence is considered a close contact with Mr. Short, in consultation with the White House Medical Unit, the Vice President will maintain his schedule in accordance with the CDC guidelines for essential personnel," O'Malley said.Besides Short, Pence’s office has not identified the other aides who have tested positive in recent days or confirmed the total number of infected individuals in the office. The New York Times first reported the outbreak among Pence’s inner circle on Saturday.  The vice president and second lady Karen Pence tested negative for COVID-19 on Sunday, a White House official said, in addition to their negative tests on Saturday after the office reported Short’s infection.

Murphy says US would be 'better off' if Trump admin 'did nothing' on coronavirus - Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said the American people would be better off if President Trump and members of his administration did nothing to try and slow the spread of coronavirus across the country. "At this point, we would be better off if the Trump Administration just did NOTHING on #COVID19," Murphy said in a tweet Sunday. "The nation would be safer if the whole White House stayed in bed all day." The Democratic senator was reacting to comments made earlier Sunday by White House chief of staff Mark Meadows defending the president's handling of the pandemic that has taken more than 200,000 American lives. “So here’s what we have to do. We’re not going to control the pandemic. We are gonna control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigations,” Meadows said on CNN's "State of the Union." He added, "It is a contagious virus just like the flu." Meadows' remarks set off a firestorm of criticism on the left, with Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden pointing to them as evidence that Trump's team has "given up" on trying to defeat the virus. “White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows stunningly admitted this morning that the administration has given up on even trying to control this pandemic, that they’ve given up on their basic duty to protect the American people,” Biden said. “This wasn’t a slip by Meadows, it was a candid acknowledgment of what President Trump’s strategy has clearly been from the beginning of this crisis: to wave the white flag of defeat and hope that by ignoring it, the virus would simply go away." Murphy, a frequent Trump critic, suggested Trump has only made the pandemic worse and exposed more Americans to the deadly coronavirus than needed to be. "The mask shaming, the rallies, the unrealistic promises on vaccines," Murphy said. "It’s killing people."

House To Consider Authorizing 'Mother Of All Bombs' Sale To Israel - Israeli media is reporting that defense officials plan to soon obtain the "mother of all bombs" or a MOAB from the United States. The GBU-43/B Massive Ordinance Air Blast bomb (MOAB) is the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal, which over recent years has seen occasional use in Afghanistan against ISIS, Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists. It's especially brought in as a bunker-buster when smaller conventional munitions can't dislodge enemy combatants. Sales of the MOAB to Israel is expected to be put before the House on Friday in a bipartisan bill - part of the newly enacted policy of the US assisting Israeli in its "military edge" over Arab countries in the region. If passed it would pave the way for Israel eventually being able to obtain the massive weapon.Last week Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz met at the Pentagon and signed a joint declaration affirming Washington’s commitment to ensure Israel’s 'Qualitative Military Edge'. This after Israeli officials expressed concern that the latest US-brokered peace deals between Tel Aviv and Arab countries - so far including UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan - would open up their countries further to obtaining high-tech American military hardware. Friday's expected legislation is being spearheaded by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Rep. Brian Mast (D-FL), with Gottheimer putting out a statement saying the bill will "help shore-up Israel’s QME in the region and secure both of our countries from the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran."

Beijing Slaps Sanctions On Raytheon, Lockheed & Boeing In Retaliation For Taiwan Arms Sales -  As President Trump and VP Mike Pence (recent COVID-19 infections be damned) fan out across the country for a last-minute pre-Election Day push to get out the vote, Beijing is adding to its long-promised retaliation for TikTok, Hong Kong, the Xinjiang sanctions, all President Trump's COVID-19-related China bashing and - most importantly - Taiwan. After Beijing sanctioned Lockheed Martin over its involvement in "Torpedoes for Taiwan", the CCP is following up with more economic attacks on American defense contractors, guaranteeing that the Chinese response, and its attendant economic impact, will be elevated to an important talking point and - more importantly - another risk factor for already-uneasy markets, struggling to digest the political uncertainty combined with new record numbers of COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe.According to Reuters, Beijing has decided to impose sanctions on Boeing's defense unit, Raytheon and (again) Lockheed. The news was announced by Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian. He didn't elaborate on what the sanctions will entail.The sanctions come as the State Department approves the sale of three weapons systems to Taiwan, including sensors, missiles and artillery worth some $1.8 billion as the Trump Administration throws caution to the wind and goes all-in on beefing up Taiwan's defense capabilities, even as Beijing adopts increasingly belligerent rhetoric about the "red line" that is Taiwan."To safeguard our national interests, China decided to take necessary measures and levy sanctions on U.S. companies such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing Defence, and Raytheon, and those individuals and companies who behaved badly in the process of the arms sales," he said." Though it's not the "just war" China has promised, it's possible that US equities could take a hit if we hear more concrete details from the Chinese. Markets wobbled after China announced its last round of sanctions against Lockheed, though whatever Beijing did, it doesn't look like it had much immediate impact on Lockheed's bottom line, according to its latest earnings report, released roughly a week ago.

US Commander Provokes China: Troops Can Be Sent To Defend Japan's Senkaku Islands --Two weeks ago we detailed the latest flare-up in maritime tensions between Japan and China after Chinese ships intruded into the Japanese-claimed Senkaku Islands area in disputed East China Sea waters, staying for a record amount of time according to Japan's Defense Minister, who previously called the situation "intolerable".The stakes have now been raised as of early this week given the head of US forces in Japan has said the Pentagon could send American troops to defend the Senkaku Islands from future Chinese aggression.  Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) Escort Flotilla 1, Escort Flotilla 4, and the Royal Canadian Navy, in formation during Keen Sword 21."Our arrival today was simply to demonstrate the ability to move a few people but the same capability could be used to deploy combat troops to defend the Senkaku Islands or respond to other crisis and contingencies," Lt. Gen. Kevin Schneider said on Monday.He further went through a list of "malign activities" by Beijing in the region during his briefing from the deck of a Japanese destroyer.The occasion was the commencement of Keen Sword 21, a major ten day joint annual exercises between the US and Japanese navies. It involves almost ten thousand US troops and some 37,000 Japanese troops along with 170 aircraft and 20 ships, according to international reports.Here's how Japanese media presented US commander Schneider's provocative remarks:Schneider said the countries' ability to transport personnel "can and could be used to deliver combat troops to defend the Senkakus." Officials from Japan's Defense Ministry view his remarks as a warning to China, which has been stepping up its activities in waters near the Senkaku Islands.

Trump has list of top intelligence officials he'll fire if he wins reelection: report -President Trump plans to fire several top officials in the national security sphere should he win reelection in November, Axios reported Sunday.The president plans to fire Defense Secretary Mark Esper, CIA Director Gina Haspel and FBI Director Christopher Wray, two people familiar with his decisionmaking told the news outlet. White House officials declined to comment on personnel matters."We have no personnel announcements at this time nor would it be appropriate to speculate about changes after the election or in a 2nd term," White House spokesman Judd Deere told Axios.One source close to Haspel added that the CIA director is considering leaving on her own, telling Axios, "Since the beginning of DNI's push to declassify documents, and how strongly she feels about protecting sources connected to those materials, there have been rumblings around the agency that the director plans to depart the CIA regardless of who wins the election."A CIA spokesman told The Hill that “Director Haspel continues to proudly serve at CIA, and we’ll leave the election season speculation to others" in an emailed statement.News of Trump's latest possible targets for firing comes just days after The Washington Post reported that the president had recently discussedfiring Wray in conversations with White House advisers.  The Post reported last week that the president has grown incensed with Wray in recent weeks due to the FBI director's refusal to open a criminal investigation into Hunter Biden, a late-in-the-game announcement that would likely upend the presidential race.

Barrett confirmation stokes Democrats' fears over ObamaCare --Judge Amy Coney Barrett's expected confirmation to the Supreme Court on Monday has reignited Democrats’ fear of a 6-3 conservative majority court siding with GOP challengers in an upcoming lawsuit targeting ObamaCare. The high court is set to hear oral arguments in the case next month, with a ruling likely sometime in June. Court watchers say a number of outcomes are possible, with the most extreme scenario involving the court striking down the entire law. Invalidating the Affordable Care Act (ACA) would cause some 21 million Americans to lose health coverage, perhaps while the country is still in the grips of the coronavirus pandemic. It would also remove protections for 133 million people in the U.S. with preexisting conditions, and permit insurers to deny coverage or charge higher premiums based on a person’s health status. The political ground has shifted dramatically since the justices agreed in March to take up the challenge to ObamaCare. The country has gone from enjoying historically low jobless numbers and fewer than two dozen coronavirus cases to seeing millions of newly unemployed Americans lose job-based health coverage and more than 222,000 die from COVID-19. The makeup of the court itself has also changed in the wake of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, with President Trump putting forward a conservative replacement whose entrance to the court is all but certain to shift it further to the right.  “We all know that Amy Barrett presents a clear and present danger to the Affordable Care Act,” Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) told the crowd. “She’s already let it be known that she thinks Chief Justice Roberts made a mistake when he upheld the law, which means that if she had been sitting on that court, she would have struck down the Affordable Care Act then.” Top Republicans have sent mixed messages about how Barrett’s seating on the court might affect the GOP-led lawsuit against the Obama-era law. The Trump administration has backed the case, which will be argued before the court on Nov. 10. During Barrett’s confirmation hearings earlier this month, Senate Republicans went to great lengths to downplay the likelihood that her addition to the court would seal the law’s fate. “The left is also suggesting Judge Barrett's confirmation would be the demise of the Affordable Care Act and the protection for preexisting conditions. That's outrageous,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said during the hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee. “As a mother of seven, Judge Barrett clearly understands the importance of health care.”

The Reason Amy Coney Barrett May Have Been Chosen - Lauren Martinchek at Medium magazine has a brief article suggesting there is another reason why trump chose Amy to be the next SCOTUS Justice and why Republicans are in such a hurry to nominate her. It is an alarmist viewpoint; however, it does have a foundation to it and has merit for her to claim it. This may be old news to some readers.Pulling from the Washington Post, Beth Reinhard and Tom Hamburger lay the foundation from which Lauren lays out some of the detail.“Amy Coney Barrett was just three years out of law school, a 28-year-old associate at a boutique Washington law firm, when she was dispatched to Florida to help George W. Bush’s legal team rescue thousands of Republican absentee ballots.At issue were thousands of absentee ballot request forms in Martin County — just north of Palm Beach County, home of the notorious “butterfly ballot” — that had missing voter registration information.After county officials allowed the GOP to take the forms back and fill in the missing information, a Democratic voter sued, saying ballots cast by those voters should be tossed out. The county canvassing board, the Florida Republican Party and the Bush campaign argued that the votes should still count.As both parties brace for the possibility of another contested election that Trump has suggested could go to the high court, the previously unreported role of his Supreme Court nominee in the absentee ballot fight is more than a historical footnote. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh also played a role in Bush v. Gore, it js meaning that if Barrett is confirmed, three of the nine justices will have participated in litigation related to the only presidential contest to be decided by the high court.And then goes on to say;  Donald Trump does not care about whether or not someone chooses to get an abortion. He does not care about health insurance, or a companies ability to deny you coverage based on a pre-existing condition. At this point it feels almost trivial, even mundane to point out that all that motivates him is money, and the preservation of his own personal power. As we grow closer and closer to an election the President has already said he will take to the courts if necessary in order to ensure the outcome is in his favor. Can we really be surprised his selection for the Supreme Court is a woman who was on the frontlines giving him the blueprint on how to do it?For Donald Trump, there was only one litmus test Amy Coney Barrett needed to pass,  which she passed it at 28 years old,  and before she was even a Judge.

Amy Coney Barrett Confirmed to US Supreme Court in Senate Vote on Trump Pick – - Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation by the Senate Monday night was a touchstone accomplishment for President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans that solidifies a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court just eight days before the U.S. election. The Senate confirmed Barrett on a partisan 52-48 vote, and Justice Clarence Thomas administered the first of two required oaths to Barrett on the South Lawn of the White House a short time later with Trump looking on. Chief Justice John Roberts will administer the second oath in a private ceremony at the Supreme Court on Tuesday, letting Barrett begin work as a justice. Barrett may be asked to weigh in on cases that would determine the outcome of a close election, and is expected to vote on whether the Affordable Care Act is constitutional soon after she joins the court. “This is a momentous day for America, for the United States Constitution, and for the fair and impartial rule of law,” Trump said. Barrett, he said, “will make an oustanding justice on the highest court in our land.” Elevating the 48-year-old jurist helps fulfill a longstanding GOP goal of transforming the federal bench into a conservative legal bulwark. With the clearest anti-abortion record of any high court nominee in decades, Barrett’s appointment also is a major victory for Evangelical Christian groups that have loyally supported Republicans and are a crucial voting bloc for Trump as he heads into Election Day trailing Democrat Joe Biden. “It’s a privilege to be asked to serve my country in this office and I stand here tonight truly honored and humbled,” Barrett said. “This was a rigorous confirmation process, and I thank all of you, especially Leader McConnell and Chairman Graham, to help me navigate it,” referring to Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham, both facing re-election next week. She thanked White House staff and the Department of Justice for advising her in the confirmation process. She vowed to separate her personal political leanings from her judicial decisions. “It is the job of a judge to resist her policy preferences,” she said. “It would be a dereliction of duty to give in to them.” Trump and his GOP allies in the Senate pushed for a quick confirmation of Barrett, and it came just 38 days after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who for 27 years anchored the court’s liberal wing. Trump had said he wanted his replacement for Ginsburg in place to avoid a deadlocked court should the outcome of the presidential election depend on a ruling, as was the case in 2000.

 Trump escalates coup plotting with swearing-in of Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett - One week before the US presidential election, there is an expanding political conspiracy spearheaded by President Trump to hijack the election and maintain his grip on power regardless of the outcome of the vote. This effort reached a new stage Monday night with the swearing-in of the newest Supreme Court Justice, Amy Coney Barrett, whom Trump nominated in an effort to insure a Republican-dominated court that will rubber stamp his actions on and after Election Day. The installation of Barrett, staged before a floodlit White House and broadcast on cable television, was the latest in a series of fascistic spectacles intended to convey Trump’s determination to dominate the American political scene in defiance of the will of the people and the text of the Constitution. First came his speech accepting the Republican Party’s nomination for a second term as president, staged on the White House lawn and using the executive mansion as the backdrop for a partisan spectacle. Then came his return from Walter Reed Medical Center after his treatment for coronavirus, with the helicopter landing and Trump climbing the stairs to greet supporters from the White House balcony, a virtually scene-for-scene restaging of the Hitlerite documentary Triumph of the Will. Last night, Trump rushed to hold the swearing-in of Barrett before a hand-picked audience on the White House lawn only hours after the Senate confirmed her nomination by a 52-48 vote. In a blatantly partisan affair, the most right-wing justice on the court, Clarence Thomas, administered the oath of office. Thomas is also the last survivor on the court of the majority who stole the 2000 presidential election with the 5-4 Bush v. Gore decision. Trump’s remarks were a scripted tribute to the US Constitution as “the ultimate defense of American liberty.” The real sentiments of this would-be dictator were expressed earlier in the day in Pennsylvania, where he roared threats of violent retribution against the state’s Democratic governor if he should dare to interfere with the efforts of Trump’s fascistic supporters to intimidate voters. Referring to Democrat Tom Wolf, Trump said, “The governor counts the ballots, and we are watching you, governor, very closely in Philadelphia. A lot of bad things happen there with the counting of the votes. We are watching you, Governor Wolf, very closely. We’re watching you.” Later in his speech, Trump referred to his opponents as “globalists”—a frequent synonym for “Jews” in fascist discourse. Speaking like a mafia boss about his thugs, he said, “We have very nice people, they don’t want to do anything before the election. Very nice, very nice people.”

How the coronavirus made it nearly impossible to renounce U.S. citizenship - Aline, 59, a nursing assistant who lives in Bayonne, France, said she was shocked to receive a letter from her bank in February warning that her account would be closed if she could not provide a U.S. Social Security number. She’d had little to do with the United States since leaving California as a baby. When she tried to arrange an appointment to apply for one at the U.S. Embassy in Paris, she found that the service had been suspended during the novel coronavirus pandemic. Months later, after receiving another warning from her bank, she decided to renounce her U.S. citizenship. “I never thought of myself as an American,” she said. But neither the embassy nor other U.S. consulates in France would process her request. The service had ground to a halt worldwide. “It seems to me that the U.S. administration is doing everything to prevent us from renouncing U.S. citizenship,” she said. Aline is not alone. U.S. government data suggests that a record number of Americans are seeking to give up citizenship or permanent residency this year. But disruptions to consular services around the world have made it nearly impossible for some Americans to stop being American. “The hurdles have never been higher,” said Peter Spiro, an expert on dual citizenship at Temple University School of Law. AD The Washington Post spoke to a half-dozen U.S. citizens abroad who said pandemic-related restrictions had delayed their plans to give up their citizenship. The potential consequences: closed bank accounts, canceled loans and disrupted lives. Like Aline, most spoke on the condition that their full name remain private, as they were figuring out compliance with U.S. tax law. Many others did not want to publicize their plight at all. Fabien Lehagre, the leader of the Paris-based Association of Accidental Americans, said he was working with about 100 U.S. citizens who wished to renounce citizenship but were unable to — himself included. A State Department spokesperson, speaking on background because of department rules, said that cutbacks to consular services, which began in March, were meant “to protect our customers, our workforce and public health worldwide,” and that the department had begun a “phased resumption of routine consular services.”

ICE uses torture to pressure African asylum seekers to agree to deportation Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials in a privately run detention center in Mississippi have been accused of torturing asylum seekers from Africa in an effort to get them to sign their own deportation papers. This latest saga in the on-going grotesque war on immigrants carried out by the Trump administration was revealed last week by the Guardian, which followed up on an October 8 complaint filed by groups including the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) and Freedom for Immigrants (FFI) on behalf of eight asylum seekers. The report details a horrific situation in which ICE officials have engaged in an “brutal scramble” to get the asylum seekers out of the country before the presidential election on November 3. Detainees spoke of being choked, beaten, pepper sprayed, and threatened with even further violence unless they consented to being placed on charter flights back to their home countries. The asylum seekers from various African countries—particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon—have been unwilling to sign off on their own deportations, which is not surprising since the very reason for their coming to the US is to escape persecution in their own countries. Many of them in fact have asylum hearings pending. However, ICE has shrugged away even the pretense of respect for basic human rights and due process. The disgraceful treatment of African asylum seekers was brought to light this past year in part because of organized protests, including hunger strikes, by 40 Cameroonians detained in ICE’s Pine Prairie Facility in Louisiana. The detainees have spoken up about the appalling conditions in the detention center, the lack of protection against COVID-19, and the bullying and frankly illegal behavior of various immigration officials including a systematic attempt to dismiss identification documents or evidence and pressure asylum seekers to give up on their cases even before an appeal is heard. It is also now known that ICE has retaliated against the detainees for protesting by using force and subjecting them to long stretches of solitary confinement. The latest revelations are even more horrifying. One of the detainees, identified as DF in the complaint, said that on being asked by an ICE agent to sign his deportation order on September 28: “I refused... He pressed my neck into the floor. I said, ‘Please, I can’t breathe.’ I lost my blood circulation. Then they took me inside with my hands at my back where there were no cameras.” The place that DF was taken to is a punitive wing known as “Zulu” in the Adams county center, where reports indicate torture is carried out regularly without any restraints. Describing his experience in Zulu, DF stated: “They put me on my knees where they were torturing me and they said they were going to kill me. They took my arm and twisted it. They were putting their feet on my neck. While in Zulu, they did get my fingerprint on my deportation document and took my picture.” Another detainee, CA, said he was forced to the ground, sat on, handcuffed and pepper sprayed. “I was crying, ‘I can’t breathe,’ because they were forcefully on top of me pressing their body weight on top of me. My eyes were so hot ... I was dragged across the ground...The officers told me to open my eyes. I couldn’t. My legs and hands were handcuffed. They forcefully opened my palm. Some of my fingers were broken. They forced my fingerprint on to the paper.”

Trump Adviser Jared Kushner Says Black People Must 'Want to Be Successful' -  President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner said Black people must “want to be successful” in order for the administration’s policies to help them.“One thing we’ve seen in a lot of the Black community, which is mostly Democrat, is that President Trump’s policies are the policies that can help people break out of the problems that they’re complaining about,” Kushner said Monday on “Fox & Friends.” “But he can’t want them to be successful more than they want to be successful.”Kushner’s remarks drew criticism on Twitter, where Democrats said he was implying that many Black people don’t want to be successful. “Jared Kushner was born into wealth and he married into wealth. He’s never had to ‘want’ success, let alone earn it. All he’s had to do is be in the right place at the right time,” Representative Gerry Connolly, a Virginia Democrat, tweeted. “This is a breathtaking insult to the hardworking people who actually make this country great.” Trump’s campaign believes he’s drawing more Black support for his re-election than in his 2016 run, thanks to policies including a law he signed reducing prison sentences for nonviolent offenders, increased spending for historically Black colleges and universities and new tax benefits for investors in low-income communities. White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany issued a statement saying “internet trolls” had taken Kushner’s remarks out of context. “From criminal justice reform and record HBCU funding to record low Black unemployment and record high income increases, there is simply no disputing that President Trump accomplished what Democrats merely talked about,” McEnany said.Trump lost among Black voters by about 82 percentage points in 2016 but has closed the gap in support to about 71 points this year, according to an analysis of polling data FiveThirtyEight.com published last week. He’s improved particularly with Black men, cutting his disadvantage to 57 percentage points from 72 percentage points. “What you’re seeing throughout the country now is a groundswell of support in the Black community because they’re realizing that all the different bad things that the media and the Democrats have said about President Trump are not true and so they’re seeing that he’s actually delivered,” Kushner said. “President Trump may not always say the right things, but he does the right things. He says what’s on his mind and he gets results.”

Pelosi slams Trump for pledging to get 'husbands back to work': 'What century is he living in?' - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday blasted President Trump for pledging to get "husbands back to work" in his attempt to appeal to female voters during a campaign rally earlier this week. "What decade is he living in? What century is he living in? So completely removed from the realities of life. And that has caused death," Pelosi said during a press conference in the Capitol. Pelosi noted that nearly 1 million women — 865,000, according to government figures — left the workforce in September. That's four times the number of men, 216,000, who also dropped out of the workforce last month. During a campaign rally in Lansing, Mich., on Tuesday, Trump said he would help women's husbands get their jobs back as part of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. "Your husbands, they want to get back to work," Trump said. "We're getting your husbands back to work. And everybody wants it."  .. Polls have shown Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading Trump among female voters by double digits, particularly among college-educated suburban women. During a rally in Johnstown, Pa., earlier this month, Trump asked suburban women to "please like me." “They talk about the suburban women. And somebody said, ‘I don’t know if the suburban woman likes you.’ I said, ‘Why?’ ” Trump said. “They said, ‘They may not like the way you talk,’ but I’m about law and order. I’m about having you safe. I’m about having your suburban communities. I don’t want to build low-income housing next to your house.” “So can I ask you to do me a favor? Suburban women, will you please like me? I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?”

Postal Service awards $5 million contract to Postmaster DeJoy's former company, XPO -   Postmaster General Louis DeJoy's former company landed a $5 million highway-shipping contract last month with the United States Postal Service.  DeJoy continues to own a multimillion-dollar stake in XPO Logistics as of early October. The $5 million deal is the first regular contract for a postal route that XPO Logistics has signed with the USPS in more than a year. XPO's last highway contract with the USPS was in December and was temporary. The one before that was signed in July 2019. XPO's contract — to move mail for the next 18 months between Norfolk, Virginia, and Evansville, Indiana — has not been previously reported. The contract was negotiated in August and disclosed in mid-October as part of a quarterly update to a database of USPS suppliers.  The Postal Service will pay XPO $3.3 million annually to manage its route between the two cities, which are roughly 700 miles apart. The USPS database shows the contract has one of the highest annual rates out of more than 1,600 contracts the Postal Service initiated with outside firms in its most recent quarter, which is the first full quarter DeJoy has served as head of the agency.  DeJoy was a top executive of XPO before he left its board in 2018. He had joined XPO after selling it the company he founded, New Breed Logistics, in a 2014 deal valued at $615 million.  XPO still pays DeJoy about $2.3 million a year in rent and expenses for 220,000 square feet of office space he controls in his home state of North Carolina. XPO's lease agreements for DeJoy's properties run through 2025.

 Trump’s company billed the government at least $2.5 million. Here are the key charges. - President Trump has visited his own properties more than 280 times since he took office — hosting summits at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida, taking summer breaks at his club in Bedminster, N.J., and pausing international trips to visit his golf resorts in Scotland and Ireland. These visits brought the president to familiar places, full of friends, family and political supporters. They also brought his company money, from American taxpayers. The Washington Post has obtained federal spending records showing that — while Trump was visiting his properties — his company was benefiting from payments from the U.S. government. The total: at least $2.5 million in taxpayer funds. Much of that spending was triggered by Trump’s travel, or the travel of his family and aides. These were some of the notable charges: When Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago in April 2017, Trump hosted a formal dinner at the club — and, over dessert, told Xi that the United States had fired missiles into Syria, he said. Trump later said the dessert was: “The most beautiful piece of chocolate cake that you’ve ever seen.” Trump’s club later charged the government more than $7,000 for the 30-person dinner, including charges for wine, floral arrangements and decorative potted palm trees. The bill appears to include Trump’s own meal. Trump’s club in Bedminster, N.J., charges the Secret Service $17,000 a month, every month, from May to November each year. The reason: the Secret Service uses a cottage on the club grounds, near the cottages that Trump and his daughter Ivanka use. These rental charges — which are unusually high for homes in the area — continue whether Trump or his family are present or not. The reason: A former administration official said that, because Trump’s travels are unpredictable, the Secret Service needed to have a place reserved just in case. The records show that Trump’s adult children have driven business to their family company, by visiting Trump properties with their own Secret Service agents in tow. Agents followed Eric Trump to the company’s golf clubs in Scotland and Ireland, as the president’s son led tours for paying customers. Agents also accompanied Ivanka Trump on multiple trips to the Trump club in Bedminster. Those visits make the Secret Service a captive customer, required to rent rooms near the Trump family. Even when Bedminster was closed because of the coronavirus pandemic this spring, Trump’s company still charged for the agents’ rooms.  When Trump and Abe met at Mar-a-Lago, their first meeting was a brief one on the couch in Mar-a-Lago’s central living room. The two men shook hands for the press, and made brief remarks about what they hoped the summit would achieve. There was no food served. No private room to rent. Seemingly, nothing to charge for. But Mar-a-Lago still sent the government a bill. “Bilateral meeting,” the bill said. “Water.” The price was $3 each, including service charge. Taxpayers had effectively paid Trump’s company to serve him water.

Trump Tells Supporters He’s Iffy on a Peaceful Transfer of Power if He Loses the Election - President Donald Trump flirted with the possibility of an authoritarian power grab yet again Saturday, suggesting to supporters at a campaign rally that he may not commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the presidential election. Speaking in Circleville, Ohio, the commander in chief pondered why he should ensure a peaceful transition when he said the previous administration treated him so unfairly: “They ask me, ‘If you lose, will there be a friendly transition?’ Well, when I won, did they give me a friendly transition? They spied on my campaign, they did all this stuff. That was not a friendly transition.”   Trump has deflected the question before when asked by reporters, saying, “We’ll see what happens.” But he has not made the case for defying a transfer of power directly to supporters before. Vice President Mike Pence has joined the president in refusing to answer the question, dodging it at the vice presidential debate last week.  Former President Barack Obama’s administration offered assistance to Trump and his transition team in taking up residence in the White House after the 2016 election, as has been the norm for past presidencies. The two met in January 2017 to discuss the changeover.  In the same Ohio speech on Saturday, Trump complained extensively about television coverage, both his own now infamous 60 Minutes interview and what he said was an overemphasis on COVID-19 coverage. Trump walked out of his recent Q&A with correspondent Lesley Stahl but later posted the entire interview to his Facebook page.  He also mocked those who take the COVID-19 pandemic seriously and appeared to suggest it was all part of an electoral conspiracy against him, saying, “That’s all I hear about now. Turn on TV, ‘Covid, Covid, Covid Covid Covid.’ A plane goes down, 500 people dead, they don’t talk about it. ‘Covid Covid Covid Covid.’ By the way, on November 4th, you won’t hear about it anymore ... ‘Please don’t go and vote, Covid!’”

Americans Are Frantically Buying Military Gear Before the Election - Conflict is on America’s streets in 2020, and “tactical apparel” has become a lifestyle industry serving militarized law-enforcement agents and the freelance gunmen who emulate them. Less than two weeks before Election Day, orders are rolling in.Since last year, online purchases have driven a 20-fold jump in sales of goods like the $220 CM-6M gas mask -- resistant to bean-bag rounds -- for Mira Safety of Austin, Texas. “It doesn’t matter who gets elected,” founder Roman Zrazhevskiy said of his new customers. “They think that no matter who wins, Biden or Trump, there are going to be people who are upset about the result.” Not long ago -- perhaps a generation -- dressing like you’re going to war was for the veteran who never quite made it back from Vietnam or the angry young men who obsessed over gas masks and combat boots at the military surplus store. (Every American town seemed to have one, and only one.) A shift became apparent with this spring’s Black Lives Matter protests and bitterly resented pandemic lockdowns. Now the gear is everywhere, from camouflage-clad antifa supporters to right-wing extremists who appeared at Michigan’s capitol even after men were arrested in a plot to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer.In some suburban and rural settings, it’s become everyday wear. A retail chain called 5.11 Tactical, which traces its roots to a friend of President Donald Trump’s adult sons, is even trying to turn the survivalist look into a fashionable national brand. It’s racking up annual sales of almost $400 million with stores in places including Tulsa, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Army’s Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas. Across the country, gun and ammunition sales have surged as well. “It’s evidence of what many people have been expressing concern about for the last six months -- the stress associated with the pandemic, a frustration or anger about various government mitigation efforts and a belief that those efforts are infringing on their individual liberties,” said Elizabeth Neumann, a former assistant secretary for threat prevention at the Department of Homeland Security. Tactical gear speaks “to a form of militaristic patriotism, a way for them to find their identities,” said Neumann, who resigned this year over what she described as the Trump administration’s failure to address domestic threats. Half the orders at Gladiator Solutions come from civilians, a big change from years when law enforcement was the major customer, said Matt Materazo, founder of the Danville, California, company. “We’ve seen a big uptick coming out of New York, New Jersey, Illinois -- not just those states but Chicago, Manhattan, Queens and San Francisco,” he said. “We never did business with folks from San Francisco.” His biggest seller is a $220 body-armor plate meant to withstand bullets fired from an AK-47.

'Renminbi Diplomacy'- How China Bought The US Government- - In an explosive scoop, alternative news outlet Zero Hedge has laid bare how China’s state apparatchik clandestinely baited the family members of the Obama-era vice president and secretary of state into joint business ventures in order to surreptitiously influence the trade and economic policies of the US government favoring China’s geo-economic interests spanning the globe. Here are a few relevant excerpts from the investigative report authored by Christopher Balding, Associate Professor at Peking University HSBC School of Business Shenzhen, China, and also a Bloomberg contributor: “Hunter Biden partnered with the Chinese state. Entire investment partnership is Chinese state money from social security fund to China Development Bank. It is actually a subsidiary of the Bank of China. This is not remotely anything less than a Chinese state-funded play.“Though the entire size of the fund cannot be reconstructed, the Taiwanese cofounder who is now detained in China, reports it to be NOT $1-1.5 billion but $6.5 billion. This would make Hunters stake worth at a minimum at least $50 million if he was to sell it.“The believed Godfather arranging Hunter’s business ventures is a gentleman named Yang Jiechi. He is currently the CCP Director of Foreign Affairs leading strategist for America, Politburo member, one of the most powerful men in China, and Chinese President Xi Jingpin’s confidant.“He met regularly with Joe Biden during his stint as Chinese ambassador the US when Biden chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  Later he was Minister of Foreign Affairs when the investment partnership was made official in 2013. “Joe Biden’s foreign policy stance towards China (formerly hawkish), turned positive despite China’s country’s rising geopolitical assertiveness.” China is alleged to practice “debt-trap diplomacy” for buying entire governments through extending financial grants and loans, and what better way to buy the rival government of the United States than by financing the Biden campaign through bestowing financial largesse on the Biden and John Kerry families and other prominent former officials of the Obama-Biden administration.

Putin Defends Bidens, Becomes 'Visibly Irritated' When Asked About $3.5 Million Moscow Payment To Hunter -  Russian President Vladimir Putin defended Hunter Biden on Sunday, saying the saw 'nothing criminal' regarding his past business ties with Ukraine or Russia, according to Reuters. Putin's statement would seem to fly in the face of the MSM's latest conspiracy theory that he's somehow behind the release of Hunter Biden's alleged laptop contents, and you should believe that 'whether or not it's true.' It would also suggest that Putin never possessed, or hasn't read the New York Post's undisputed evidence that Hunter introduced a Burisma adviser to his father eight months before Joe Biden pressured Ukraine to fire their Prosecutor General, who was investigating Burisma at the time.Putin appeared less friendly towards Trump in remarks broadcast by Russian state TV on Sunday. In what may be seen by some analysts as an attempt to try to curry favour with the Biden camp, he took the time to knoc k down what he made clear he regarded as false allegations from Trump about the Bidens.“Yes, in Ukraine he (Hunter Biden) had or maybe still has a business, I don’t know. It doesn’t concern us. It concerns the Americans and the Ukrainians,” said Putin. -Reuters"But well yes he had at least one company, which he practically headed up, and judging from everything he made good money. I don’t see anything criminal about this, at least we don’t know anything about this (being criminal)," said the Russian leader - who leftists in America have spent four years insisting is extremely corrupt, and will now lionize as a paragon of truth.According to the report, Putin "reacted with visible irritation" over question regarding an alleged $3.5 million payment made to Hunter Biden the ex-Moscow Mayor's widow - responding that he knew nothing about a commercial relationship between Hunter and the woman who President Trump said was tied to Putin during last week's debate.

 Justice Department Cites Treatment of Hunter Biden Articles in Call to Change Law Protecting Online Platforms – WSJ  —The Justice Department said it was concerned that Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc. restricted access to recent New York Post stories about the son of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, telling lawmakers the department supported bipartisan interest in changing a law providing legal protections to online platforms.The department made the comments Tuesday in a letter to Capitol Hill leaders ahead of a high-profile Senate hearing Wednesday in which Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey will testify.The letter, signed by Stephen E. Boyd, the assistant attorney general for legislative affairs, said online platforms “hold tremendous power over information” and must “be honest and transparent with users about how they use that power. And when they are not, it is critical that they can be held accountable.”“For example, the decision by two social media companies to restrict access to news content of significant public interest from the New York Post, a widely distributed journalism publication, is quite concerning,” the department wrote.The letter didn’t mention Facebook, Twitter or the Biden family by name, but suggested the department didn’t believe such conduct is covered under the legal protections afforded online platforms and signaled a willingness to get involved in future litigation over the issue.The New York Post’s articles cited emails it said were written and received by Hunter Biden and had been provided by allies of President Trump, who trails the former vice president in polls. The Trump allies said they received the emails from a computer-repair person who found them on a laptop.One article included a copy of an email said to have been sent to Hunter Biden apparently describing a meeting between his father and an executive at Burisma Holdings, the Ukrainian gas company on whose board Hunter Biden served. Efforts by Mr. Trump to have Ukraine investigate the Bidens and Burisma led to the president’s impeachment by the House last year. The Biden campaign has said that Joe Biden engaged in no wrongdoing and that no such meeting took place.

Senate Committee Verifies Bobulinski Evidence On Bidens (So Why Is MSM Covering It Up?) The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee confirmed Wednesday the information exposed by former Hunter Biden business associate Tony Bobulinski that connects the former Vice President to companies and ventures in China. But you wouldn’t know it by following the main stream press. Bobulinski’s bombshell interview with Fox News host Tucker Carlson Tuesday, along with Carlson’s follow up exclusive on Wednesday, revealed that Democratic candidate Joe Biden was aware of his son’s business questionable overseas business dealings. It should be a huge story. After all, Joe Biden has publicly denied knowing about his son’s business ventures in China, Ukraine and other parts of the world. So why isn’t this story on the front page of every newspaper and covered by every cable network? How is it possible that the majority of main stream media outlets, newspapers and cable networks had no problem running unsubstantiated stories about President Donald Trump, his family and his businesses only to find out later – without corrections- that the information they published was bogus. Here, there is an eye witness to the Biden family operations: Bobulinski. He has come forward and shown his credibility. He has verified documents, photos, receipts from Hunter Biden’s hard drive that the FBI had obtained, along with President Trump’s friend and personal lawyer former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Why hasn’t the FBI done anything with this before the election? The bureau has had it for almost a year. Giuliani then did the only thing he could do – he turned over the documents to The New York Post. Those documents obtained from Hunter Biden’s laptop are the massive breadcrumbs to a real political scandal. These documents raise serious questions as to whether or not our possible future president really is compromised by foreign adversaries, or whether or not he was using his position in government to profit his family. Still, it’s only crickets from the main stream media. At the same time, big tech giants like Twitter, Google and Facebook are also working diligently to squash the story and keep the truth from the American people. Tucker Carlson had the highest ratings – historic ratings – at Fox News Tuesday night with more than 7 million viewers tuning in for the Bobulinski story. Yet, the Bobulinski interview wasn’t trending on Twitter, and in fact, it appeared that his story was non-existent on the other networks. 

7 Key Corruption Questions Joe Biden Must Answer After FBI Bombshell - On Thursday, a Department of Justice official confirmed that the FBI opened an ongoing criminal money-laundering investigation into Hunter Biden and his associates last year. Tim Murtaugh, communications director for President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign, urged the press to ask Democratic nominee Joe Biden seven important questions involving the corruption scandal. News of the FBI investigation came days after Tony Bobulinski, a former business partner with Hunter Biden, spilled the beans on Joe Biden’s involvement with his son’s business deals in China, Ukraine, and elsewhere in an hour-long interview with Fox News’ Tucker Carlson. Bobulinski first came forward before the final presidential debate, and a Senate committee has confirmed that his documents are genuine. Bobulinski came forward after Facebook and Twitter took unprecedented action to suppress a New York Post story about Hunter Biden’s emails, which first revealed Joe Biden’s involvement. As Murtaugh noted in the call with the press, Bobulinski claimed he had met face-to-face with Joe Biden twice, and he presented evidence that the Biden family made a concerted effort to keep Joe Biden’s involvement off the books and to ensure “plausible deniability.” The Biden campaign has not disputed the veracity of the emails or Bobulinski’s claims that he met with Joe Biden face-to-face. Instead, they pushed the narrative that the entire scandal is “Russian disinformation” or a distraction from the real issues in the campaign. Murtaugh noted that only The New York Times saw President Trump’s tax returns before running the story and that many media outlets ran with the story despite not having seen the documents, yet most of the legacy media seems intent on entirely ignoring Bobulinski and the Biden corruption scandal.  Given this background, Murtaugh posted seven questions to Biden:

1. Were you aware that Hunter and his associates have been under FBI investigation since last year?
2. Did you meet with Tony Bobulinski?
3. Have you ever met with any of your son’s business associates?
4. Are any of these emails not authentic?
5. Why did Rob Walker say Bobulinski could burn all of us?
6. Do you, Joe Biden, deny that you were making business decisions about this foreign business venture?
7. Were you, Joe Biden, in fact, a beneficiary… to receive a 10 percent stake in the deal [with a Chinese energy company]?

“It is not believable that Joe Biden was unaware that his son was under FBI investigation since last year,” Murtaugh argued. “Now that there is confirmation that an FBI investigation is ongoing… and a credible accusation that Joe Biden was involved, there is no legitimate reason to fail to cover this story.”

Twitter Capitulates- Reinstates NYPost Account After 16-Day Suspension - Following contentious Congressional testimony this week from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and a 22% drop on Friday, the social media giant finally decided to unlock the New York Post's account just days before the general election - after more than two weeks in Twitter jail for posting a negative article on the company's preferred candidate, Joe Biden. In a Friday afternoon thread, Twitter Safety wrote that their policies are 'living documents' which they're willing to 'update and adjust when we encounter new scenarios or receive important feedback from the public.'  The company says they're 'updating our practice of not retroactively overturning prior enforcement," and have decided to let the Post have their account back. In response, we’re updating our practice of not retroactively overturning prior enforcement.  Decisions made under policies that are subsequently changed & published can now be appealed if the account at issue is a driver of that change. We believe this is fair and appropriate. — Twitter Safety (@TwitterSafety) October 30, 2020

Glenn Greenwald Resigns from the Intercept Over Censorship of Article on Hunter and Joe Biden – Yves Smith -Glenn Greenwald resigned from the Intercept over its refusal to publish a story at odds with the prevailing narrative on the Hunter Biden laptop story, that it is a moshup of a nothingburger and a dastardly Russian plot. In Greenwald’s post on his departure, the Pulitzer Prize winning reporter not only describes how the Intercept has abandoned its founding mission of skeptical, hard-hitting, “no favorites” reporting and won’t even consider publishing the work of journalists who depart from good mainstream thinking. Greenwald also called out demonstrable Biden-flattering distortions in previous accounts published by the Intercept on l’affaire laptop.The Intercept has shamelessly tried to spin Greenwald’s resignation as that of an artiste refusing to submit to editing…..when Greenwald’s agreement with the Intercept, like his earlier contracts with Salon and the Guardian, effectively exempted him from editorial intervention, save for statements that could expose the publication to liability. If you read the e-mails between Greenwald and his editors over the article, which Greenwald also published, the editors never once asserted that Greenwald’s piece would create legal risk, nor do they respond to his demand that they specify inaccuracies that merit revision.¹Greenwald’s agreement also prohibited the Intercept from preventing Greenwald from running a piece elsewhere if they rejected it, yet his editors attempted to violate his contract a second time by insisting he could not run his article elsewhere. In a brief appearance on Tucker Carlson’s show, Greenwald hones in on the underlying issue, which is the intelligence community’s increasingly open intervention in US politics and the “liberal” media’s eager embrace of their propagandizing:To be quite honest, I’m amazed Greenwald is still standing. During the publication of the Snowden documents, it seemed entirely plausible that Greenwald would eventually get the Assange treatment; recall how he and Laura Poitras stayed out of the US and dared the intel state by entering the US to collect a journalism award. Recall also how Greenwald’s husband Daniel Miranda was detained at Heathrow and had all of his electronic gear taken from him; in response to Miranda’s complaint, the UK tried claiming that Miranda was engaged in terrorism.Greenwald more recently crossed swords with Jair Bolosonaro, the right wing president of Greenwald’s home country, Brazil, by exposing judicial corruption that facilitated the successful prosecution of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, which made him ineligible to run for re-election. The government indicted Greenwald on 126 counts of felony. From what I can tell, a judge has yet to approve the government’s charges, which means the case is not advancing. But that’s quite a sword of Damocles to have hanging over your head.I’m not surprised that things went sour at the Intercept. Greenwald in his talk to Tucker Carlson highlighted Silicon Valley as a key ally of the security state. The Intercept’s moneybags, eBay billionaire Pierre Omidyar, is a big Democratic party donor. I sincerely doubt the editors consulted with Omidyar in their defacto refusal to run Greenwald’s Biden piece or in the blowup that ensued. But the flip side is I doubt they had to….in classic working towards the Fuhrer behavior.Some were critical of Greenwald for leaving the Guardian and taking the Snowden archives with him…..and publication of their contents did dry up after he started the Intercept. The reason I’m not sure this development is as questionable as it looks is that Snowden has had plenty of access to the media, and he could have called out Greenwald if Snowden thought the Intercept was blocking the release of more documents.Nevertheless, the Intercept has gone in short order from regularly publishing important pieces to being a damp squib, save for Greenwald’s and Lee Fang’s pieces. I used to look pretty much daily at my RSS feed to look for new Intercept stories. I can’t recall doing that except by accident in the two years.

Glenn Greenwald Censored At The Intercept, Resigns- Long-time progressive journalist Glenn Greenwald has resigned from The Intercept, an organization he co-founded. Glenn resigned because the Intercepteditors did not want him to publish a story on the corrupt dealings of Hunter Biden and his father Joe, who may be the next president of the United States. (Though not for long, because the plan is to push Joe out due to his obvious dementia and install Kamala Harris, who has been Hillary's choice all along). Tim wants people to share his video discussing Greenwald's resignation, so I am doing so (video below). Heaven help us if Joe Biden is elected, says Tim, because then there will be little or no constraint on the behavior of ruthless authoritarians who have take over our media and most of our other "liberal" institutions.  Because the Biden corruption story threatens their plans to get rid of Trump, there has been close to total silence on the story in the mainstream corporate media. (You know who I'm talking about.) Fox News is reporting it, as are other conservative outlets like Ben Shapiro's Daily Caller , and that's about it.Controlling what information low or no awareness voters get to see—exercising total control of the narrative—is essential to achieving a fascist takeover of the United States (or totalitarian, Maoist, whatever you want to call it). The Greenwald resignation is just the latest chapter in this sad and oh-so-dangerous story. I've gotten e-mails over the last weeks and months since I've been writing about this ongoing powerful attempt to take away our freedom and destroy the Constitution. If these authoritarians are successful, they will have brought about the end of Western Civilization. If those emails I've received are representative, I have to say at this point that even people reading me don't have nearly the awareness required to acknowledge, let alone act upon, the threat we are under in 2020. Here's Glenn's resignation letter , which he published at substack. You can also find Matt Taibbi at substack. It seems sometimes in the United States that you can count the number of actual journalists with integrity on both hands and still have fingers left over.  All the other "journalists" we have are really fascist activists. But of course most people are confused about this, just as they are confused about everything else.

 Facebook deploying teams with advanced censorship tools in advance of the US election - The social media platform Facebook is preparing an aggressive program of censorship for the US presidential election next week. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, teams of Facebook employees have been formed to deploy specially developed software tools previously used to “calm election-related conflict” in “at-risk” countries. The Journal report, based on comments from anonymous sources, says that the “emergency measures include slowing the spread of viral content and lowering the bar for suppressing potentially inflammatory posts.” The methods have been used previously during civil unrest in Sri Lanka and Myanmar and are “part of a larger tool kit developed by Facebook to prepare for the U.S. election.” Among the other features of the censorship tools are “across-the-board slowing of the spread of posts as they start to go viral,” the ability to tweak “the news feed to change what types of content users see” and lowering “the threshold for detecting the types of content its software views as dangerous.” The Journal sources also said that Facebook “needs to be prepared for all possibilities” and use the tools to “alter what tens of millions of Americans see when they log onto the platform, diminishing their exposure to sensationalism, incitements to violence and misinformation, said the people familiar with the measures.” The Facebook app sign-in screen (pxfuel.com) Policy Communications Manager at Facebook, Andy Stone, responding to questions about the Journal report, issued a statement which said, “We’ve spent years building for safer, more secure elections. We’ve applied lessons from previous elections, hired experts, and built new teams with experience across different areas to prepare for various scenarios.” Among the preparations that Facebook has made for the 2020 elections is a deeper collaboration with the Democratic Party and its faction of the US intelligence apparatus. Among the pre-election censorship measures carried out by Facebook have been the shutdown of pages and groups accused without any proof of “trying to mislead Americans and amplify division.”

 A week before the US Presidential election, USPS management pushes forward unprecedented attacks on mail-in balloting With the US presidential election one week away, the United States Postal Service (USPS), led by GOP mega-donor Louis DeJoy, has ramped up the drive to privatization and to place a cloud over mail-in balloting. A day after Postmaster Louis DeJoy testified before Congress in August, promising that he would suspend sweeping changes until after the election, the USPS ordered its uniformed officers to halt their patrol duties, according to the Wall Street Journal. The USPS employs around 455 uniformed officers who conduct patrols meant to safeguard mail collection boxes, delivery vehicles and buildings against theft, as well as another 1,300 plainclothes detectives who collectively work to ensure the security of the mail. The order effectively makes the job of a postal worker more dangerous, lessening their security against theft and violence from petty criminals while reducing the integrity of the mail-in ballot, the primary means of voting in the 2020 election. Moreover, given President Donald Trump’s constant attacks on mail-in balloting as a supposed vehicle for massive fraud, his open appeals to right-wing militias, including connections to fascistic conspiracies to kidnap and murder state governors deemed too reluctant to lift lockdown measures, it is entirely possible that the purpose of such measures is to render mail-in balloting vulnerable to attacks by right-wing groups. The order comes after the centralization of USPS management around DeJoy on July 10th, which created a new Logistics and Operations organization led by DeJoy appointees which is responsible for mail processing and independent from existing area and district reporting structures. According to USPS officials, the Postal Service has already handled over 100 million ballots, a 162 percent increase from the 2016 election. USPS management is deliberately reducing the transparency of the ballot processing, putting into question the outcome of the election. At least five lawmakers have been denied visits to USPS facilities. Rep. Bill Pascrell, a New Jersey Democrat, visited a mail processing center in Kearny, New Jersey, after being refused entry last month, according to his staff. However, Pascrell alongside two other members of the New Jersey congressional delegation never got beyond the lobby. Postmaster DeJoy has donated over $1.2 million dollars to the Trump victory fund and millions more to the Republican Party. When he was president of New Breed Logistics, a private USPS contractor, he encouraged his employees to write fundraising checks to the GOP and gave bonuses to offset the costs. Trump’s continuous attacks on mail-in voting are made possible through the complicity of the Democratic Party. Louis DeJoy was elected unanimously through bipartisan consensus, by a Board of Governors composed of both Democrats and Republicans. The most recent three members were elected unanimously via the Senate, which is now composed of 43 Democrats. In the face of Trump’s unprecedented attacks on the constitutional right to vote, the Democrats remain impotent, offering nothing more than mere rhetoric.

DeJoy’s 57 Varieties of Cost Cutting: What’s in the new OIG report—and what’s not? - In response to several inquiries from members of Congress, the Office of Inspector General has issued a report on “Operational Changes to Mail Delivery.” The report discusses the Postal Service’s plan to eliminate 64 million work hours — the equivalent of 33,000 jobs — by implementing 57 cost-cutting initiatives. As discussed in this previous post, the plan represents one of the largest downsizing efforts in the 50-year history of the Postal Service. These 57 “Do It Now FY Strategies” include restrictions on overtime, late and extra trips from processing centers, and all the other cost-cutting measures that have caused the delivery delays we’ve seen since July. They also include numerous other changes to postal operations that have not received much, if any, attention. The report criticizes postal leadership on several counts. First, the Postal Service “did not complete a study or analysis of the impact the changes would make on mail service prior to implementation.” Second, “documentation and guidance to the field for these strategies was very limited and almost exclusively oral.” That caused “confusion and inconsistency” and “compounded the significant negative service impacts across the country.”  The IG also criticizes management for a third major failing: The Postal Service did not “fully respond” to questions and document requests from Congress and did not share information about the plan beyond what the Postmaster General was specifically asked in his testimony before the House and Senate. As a result, Congress was not informed of the existence of the Work Hour Reduction Plan and the “Do It Now FY Strategies” before or during the Postmaster General’s testimony to Congress. The plan is not mentioned at all in Senator Gary Peters “Failure to Deliver” report or his update report. It’s very likely that Congress has yet to receive a full accounting of the plan.

 Trump Sons Hint At 2024 Runs As President’s Polling Looks Dire -  Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son who helps run the Trump Organization as an executive vice president and has been one of his father’s most active surrogates this year, posted a photo of a “Don Jr. 2024” flag to instagram.Donald Trump Jr. wrote that it will “make liberal heads explode” and that “to whomever made [the sign] thanks for the compliment… but let’s get through 2020 with a big win first.”Eric Trump, also an executive vice president at the Trump Organization and a Trump campaign surrogate, liked a tweet on Saturday reading “Eric Trump 2024,” a move some commentators recognized as roughly equivalent to his brother’s instagram post.The hints come as their father faces an increasingly uphill reelection battle, trailing Democratic candidate Joe Biden by 8 points nationally in theRealClearPolitics average with just 10 days until the election and over 50 million votes already cast.Trump’s sons are far from the only Trump-allies dipping their toes into 2024 before the ink is dry on Trump’s reelection campaign, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visiting Iowa in July and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) makingfrequent trips to New Hampshire.Other potential 2024 GOP hopefuls have made their mark by vocally distancing themselves from Trump, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex) discussing the “future of conservatism after Trump” in July and recently warning a GOP “bloodbath” in November, and Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) savaging Trump in a town hall earlier this month. The 2024 GOP race promises to be crowded regardless of who wins in November, with dozens of Republican rising stars having their names floated. Vice PresidentMike Pence, Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are just a few of the dozens of names that have been mentioned in recent months.

 “Shadow” Lobbyists Run Rampant in the Swamp - America’s system for regulating political money is built on the idea of transparency. In the case of special interest lobbying, ever since the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) in 1938, the guiding principle of lobbying regulation in the US has been to balance the freedom to lobby against obligations to report on the nature of the lobbying activity. Since 1996, the governing legal framework for reporting at the federal level has been provided by the Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA). Donald Trump came into office in 2016 having popularised a number of novel election slogans, including “drain the swamp.” Few would say that he fulfilled that promise. But the issue behind the slogan continue to matter. The US federal lobbying industry is still dysfunctional and still very large in economic size and likely political influence. And the challenge that special interest influence presents is one that transcends partisan politics: swamp creatures include both Democrats and Republicans. In our new INET working paper “Shadow Lobbyists” we look closely at some core provisions of the LDA, namely those related to the rules for reporting. The LDA is not a strong framework: it only requires individuals to register and report their lobbying activities when 20% or more of their time is spent on lobbying. This provision has been nicknamed the ‘Daschle Rule’ in reference to the case of Tom Daschle, the ex-Democratic leader in the Senate who, after leaving the Congress in 2005, enjoyed a long career as an employee of firms with significant lobbying practices before eventually registering as a lobbyist in early 2016. On the Republican side, perhaps the most notable similar case is that of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who acted as a ‘Strategic Advisor’ for Freddie Mac – and reportedly received $1.6 million in compensation for this work – but was not registered as a lobbyist at any point.The cases of Daschle and Gingrich represent peak examples of the unregistered or ‘shadow’ lobbying activity that a range of commentators have argued is a potentially significant, unmeasured part of Washington’s lobbying industry. This is obviously a problem for transparency: we cannot keep accountable activities that we simply do not observe.Our study tests for meaningful financial evidence that shadow lobbying has indeed been going on in Washington. While we cannot see exactly what potential unregistered lobbyists are doing when they go to work for lobbying firms, statistical methods allow us to back out the financial implications of their presence. The guiding idea of our approach is to look at what happens to LDA-reported lobbying firm revenues when ex-Congressman and major ex-Congressional Staffers join or exit firms. Do lobbying revenues significantly increase when these potential unregistered lobbyists join a firm? And does any such revenue increase exceed what we would expect from people contributing 20% or less of their time to LDA-defined lobbying activities?

Barrett could cement court’s restrictive view of debt collection cases - There has been scant attention paid to the financial policy views of newly confirmed Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, but her ruling in a recent debt collection case has caught the interest of some banking law experts. As a federal appeal courts judge, Barrett wrote an opinion in 2019 suggesting that consumers must show concrete harm in order to sue debt collectors. “The bottom line of our opinion can be succinctly stated: no harm, no foul," Barrett wrote in the decision for Casillas v. Madison Ave. Associates Inc. Barrett, who was sworn in as a Supreme Court justice late Monday, had ruled that Paula Casillas lacked standing to claim a violation of the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act because she was not harmed when third-party collector Madison Ave. Associates did not provide written notice about a debt. "The only harm that Casillas claimed to have suffered ... was the receipt of an incomplete letter — and that is insufficient to establish federal jurisdiction," Barrett wrote in the decision. Her ruling cited the Supreme Court’s 2016 decision in Spokeo, Inc. v. Robins, in which the high court adopted a restrictive view of when Congress can impose penalties for procedural violations of statutes. “The bottom line of our opinion can be succinctly stated: no harm, no foul," now-Supreme Court Justice Barrett wrote in an earlier appeals court decision. But observers said Barrett's views on the legal bar for plaintiffs bringing debt collection cases could be significant if the issue comes again before the high court. Other jurists have argued that the standard laid out by Barrett and in the Spokeo case is too restrictive. “What’s at stake is just how wide open the courthouse door should be when it comes to bringing these consumer protection claims,” said Chris Odinet, a law professor at the University of Iowa. “Judge Barrett essentially followed that narrow view of Spokeo’s requirements for consumer harm, which other judges have argued actually ignores the broader harms that lie at the heart of these violations." In written questions from lawmakers prior to her confirmation, Barrett was asked whether her decision in the Casillas case reflected a deferential standard to corporations. "My decision for a unanimous panel in Casillas did not 'apply a more deferential standard to corporations than to pro se litigants,' " she wrote in response to the congressional inquiry. "The defendant in this case sent the plaintiff a debt-collection letter that described the process for verifying a debt but did not specify that the plaintiff had to communicate in writing to trigger the statutory protections." "The Supreme Court has emphasized that 'a bare procedural violation, divorced from any concrete harm' fails to 'satisfy the injury-in-fact requirement of Article III,' " she continued. Still, a different court, the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, had reach a different conclusion in a similar case than Barrett did in the 7th Circuit decision, meaning the issue could be looked at again by the high court. Some legal observers say Barrett has taken a more nuanced approach, sometimes siding with businesses and other times with consumers, depending on the facts. “Justice Barrett did not say that companies are shielded from liability for violating the FDCPA, merely that this particular plaintiff in this particular case was not the consumer to sue for this violation," said David Cohen, of counsel at Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe. “The issue at play in Casillas was not the question of whether the company violated the act, but whether this particular consumer was the right person to enforce that alleged violation. Justice Barrett’s opinion left open the ability of a different consumer who had suffered a concrete injury to sue.”

Agenda is full for ABA’s new chairman, but it all starts with COVID - James Edwards Jr. would prefer to spend his one-year appointment as chairman of the American Bankers Association pushing for regulatory reform or innovation — hallmarks of his recent predecessors’ terms. Instead, the third-generation Georgia banker steps into the high-profile role amid the throes of a pandemic that has reshaped society, whipsawed the U.S. economy and tested the banking industry’s mettle on numerous fronts. The last time a new ABA chairman faced a massive challenge was 2008, when Arthur Connelly, CEO of South Shore Bancorp in Massachusetts, began his term at the height of the financial crisis. Coronavirus "is the No. 1 thing affecting all of our lives,” Edwards said in an interview. “We’ve all adjusted to a very new reality.” Bankers' reponse to the coronavirus and its continued spread throughout the country topped Edwards’ list of priorities when he formally accepted his title last week during the ABA’s convention. The association’s flagship gathering, originally set to take place for Boston, was instead conducted virtually for the first time because of the virus.Edwards, CEO of United Bank Corp. and its $1.8 billion-asset United Bank unit in Griffin, Ga., said the ABA has not lost sight of industry challenges — anti-money-laundering reform, clarity on cannabis banking, rules and regulations for fintech and credit unions — but helping banks lead customers through the depths of the pandemic-induced tumult rises above all else. “Banks large and small stepped up in big ways” when virus outbreaks arrived last spring, Edwards said. “We really became economic first responders. That was incredibly helpful at a very scary time … and we need to continue to lead and get people through this.” The best example, he noted, was banks’ collective effort to handle the Paycheck Protection Program — the $659 billion emergency Small Business Administration lending response to the initial commercial shocks of the pandemic. United Bank, which covers rural areas of central Georgia and Atlanta’s outer suburbs, closed more than $150 million in PPP loans in a matter of weeks. In doing so, Edwards said, the bank drew from all corners of the its expertise and digital capabilities. Both, he said, have only accelerated in importance. “The PPP reminded or informed so many of our customers that, in this age, digital channels are so efficient,” and it reinforced that relationships with bankers “are vital,” Edwards said.

  Visa $5.3 billion Plaid deal triggers DOJ antitrust concerns - Visa’s $5.3 billion acquisition of Plaid has raised competition concerns at the U.S. Justice Department, which is nearing a decision about whether to sue to block the deal, according to two people familiar with the matter. Lawyers at the Justice Department’s antitrust division who are investigating the takeover are worried the deal could allow Visa to acquire a potential competitor, said the people. The division’s leadership hasn’t made a final decision about whether to sue. The Justice Department, Visa and Plaid declined to comment. Visa operates a network that facilitates payments between consumers and merchants around the world. Plaid connects a bevy of financial technology apps with the data sitting inside consumers’ bank accounts. Visa said in January it was seeking to purchase Plaid in a deal that was valued at $5.3 billion and the two companies hoped to close the transaction within three to six months. By July, the company acknowledged it needed more time to satisfy regulators’ concerns. “We certainly are expecting to close by the end of the calendar year and are doing everything we can to comply with any request from the regulators that are looking at it,” Chief Executive Al Kelly told analysts on a conference call in July. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier on the Justice Department’s concerns.

The Battle to Protect Airline Investors From Economic Reality Enters a New Phase -- The third quarter US airline financial results released in the past week further confirmed what this series first argued five months ago—the industry cannot prevent ruinous cash drains because, in the absence of bankruptcy filings, there is no way to shrink their cost structures enough to match the catastrophic coronavirus -driven revenue collapse.  [1] In the third quarter (historically the industry’s most profitable quarter), the Big 4 US airlines reported a GAAP net loss of $10.8 billion (versus $10.6 bn in the second quarter) and a GAAP operating loss of $12.3 bn (versus $10.5 bn in the second quarter.) As the table below shows, these carriers are still $17.5 billion below operating breakeven and $10 billion below cash breakeven.  After second quarter results were released, Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said that revenues would need to double in order for Southwest (the financially strongest carrier in the industry) to reach cash breakeven. Kelly illustrated the industry’s lack of improvement in the third quarter by saying Southwest still needed revenue to double in order to reach cash breakeven. [2]Although basic operating economics did not improve at all, these carriers did manage to reduce their cash burn from an atrocious $15 billion in the second quarter, to a somewhat less atrocious $10 billion in the third quarter, mostly due to one-off agreements with unions and suppliers to delay or discount current contractual obligations.Carrier cash drain measures should be taken with a sizeable grain of salt, since each carrier uses different components in their cash drain calculations, with some excluding debt repayments. One Wall Street analyst who constructed a more appropriate “apples-to-apples” measure found that United had understated cash drain by 56% ($1.2 bn in the 3Q) and Delta had an understatement of 144% ($3.4 bn in the 3Q). [3] Between taxpayer subsidies (out of the $50 billion CARES Act funding) and new debt instruments, these four carriers have raised $73 billion since the beginning of the crisis, accounting for all (or nearly all) of their claimed September 30^thliquidity. Thus current operations would not be possible without this magnitude of new funding. There is no evidence of anything that could drive $10-20 billion dollar revenue increases or cost savings anytime soon, and no one in the industry has even attempted to lay out a concrete program for achieving breakeven.

Heartland reworks AIM Bancshares deal to reflect Fed concerns - Heartland Financial USA in Dubuque, Iowa, has amended its merger agreement with AIM Bancshares in Levelland, Texas, to address concerns raised by the Federal Reserve. The $15.6 billion-asset Heartland said in a press release Monday that after discussions with the Fed the companies agreed “they could better serve the goals of the transaction and more easily address regulatory concerns if they adopted two sequential mergers.” Heartland, which agreed to buy AIM in February, did not disclose the specific issues raised by the Fed as part of its review of the transaction. Heartland said the first merger will involve the $1.9 billion-asset AIM merging into AimBank, which would then be absorbed by Heartland’s First Bank & Trust. The companies also agreed to adjust the cash component of the merger consideration to reflect an increase in AIM’s adjusted tangible common equity. Heartland said AIM’s adjustable tangible common equity rose because of gains in its available-for-sale securities and held-to-maturity securities portfolios and an increase in retained earnings. The new agreement also includes a holdback provision tied to certain litigation proceedings. Heartland disclosed in August that the closing of the deal would be delayed, in part because of pending litigation against AIM tied to the bankruptcy of one of its clients. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter.

Agencies formally propose rule to weaken role of guidance — Five financial regulators issued a proposed rulemaking to weaken the authority of supervisory guidance, codifying an announcement from 2018 that declared that guidance does not carry the force of law.Thursday’s rulemaking, previewed at a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board meeting earlier this month, was issued by the Federal Reserve, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, FDIC, National Credit Union Administration and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.“Unlike a law or regulation, supervisory guidance does not have the force and effect of law and the agencies do not take enforcement actions or issue supervisory criticisms based on non-compliance with supervisory guidance,” the agencies said in a joint press release. “Rather, supervisory guidance outlines supervisory expectations and priorities, or articulates views regarding appropriate practices for a given subject area.”The regulation builds off guidance from early in the Trump administration, when financial regulators first announced that supervisory guidance does not carry the force of law in the same way that a rulemaking does.The more formal rulemaking proposal, with public feedback due 60 days after being published in the Federal Register, codifies that position and addresses some lingering concerns from the banking industry.Shortly after the so-called guidance on guidance was published, the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute wrote a joint petition requesting that the policy eventually be solidified via rulemaking, as well as clarifying that certain bank rating downgrades and penalties — such as matters requiring attention, or MRAs — would only be affected by violations of regulation and not guidance.Thursday’s filing from the five financial regulators acknowledges the petition and its concerns from the ABA and the Bank Policy Institute several times, writing that “the agencies reiterate that examiners will not base supervisory criticisms on a ‘violation’ of or ‘non-compliance with’ supervisory guidance.”Regulators also stressed the value of guidance in certain instances, writing that “in some situations, examiners may reference (including in writing) supervisory guidance to provide examples of safe and sound conduct, appropriate consumer protection and risk management practices, and other actions for addressing compliance with laws or regulations.”

OCC clarifies who is 'true lender' in bank-nonbank partnerships— The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finalized its “true lender” rule Tuesday, capping the agency’s effort to address uncertainty about bank partnerships with nonbank financial institutions. The final rule, which is largely unchanged from its proposed version in July, applies a simple test to determine when a bank is the true lender in the context of a nonbank partnership. According to the OCC, a national bank is the true lender if, at the time of a loan’s origination, it is named as the lender in a loan agreement or if the bank funds the loan. That means the national bank is responsible for ensuring the loan complies with consumer protection laws, but it also means that state interest rate caps do not apply. Yet the OCC tweaked the proposal by saying that when one bank is named the lender in an agreement and another funds the loan, the former is considered the true lender. In a statement, acting Comptroller Brian Brooks said the final rule “provides regulatory certainty for the industry and clarifies that banks retain compliance obligations for loans they originate." "It supports healthy markets, promotes access to credit, and protects against harmful ‘rent-a-bank’ arrangements,” he said. But consumer advocates and some lawmakers immediately lashed out at the agency, saying the regulation enables unregulated nonbanks to use the cover of a bank partner to avoid consumer protections. “Today’s rule takes us back to the time 20 years ago, when payday lenders were evading state interest rate caps merely by putting a bank’s name on the paperwork,” said Lauren Saunders, associate director of the National Consumer Law Center. The OCC's rule comes as the agency and others have taken steps to address uncertainty about the effects of state interest rate caps on deals between banks and nonbank partners that cross state lines. Tuesday’s rule is the latest in a series that bank regulators have drafted and finalized over the past year to help banks maneuver around a controversial 2015 court decision, Madden v. Midland Funding, that limited banks’ ability to sell off loans. In May, a separate OCC rule confirmed that a loan's interest rate can remain legally intact even after the loan is acquired by a purchaser in a state with a lower rate cap. In a press release, the National Consumer Law Center suggested the OCC’s true lender rule would likely face litigation. The agency has already faced a legal challenge over its so-called valid-when-made rule. “The OCC has already been sued by state attorneys general for its first attempt to protect predatory rent-a-bank lenders, and I expect the agency will be sued once again over this rule, which far exceeds the OCC’s authority to take away states’ power to protect people from predatory lending,” Saunders said. Other consumer advocates blasted the OCC for finalizing the rule amid the COVID-19 pandemic. “We are in the midst of an unprecedented public health pandemic and a severe economic crisis,” said Lisa Stifler, state policy director of the Center for Responsible Lending. “It’s difficult to imagine a more inappropriate time to disrupt longstanding safeguards in place since the founding of this country that have played a fundamental role in protecting consumers from abusive financial practices."

 N.Y. regulator is first to issue climate guidance for banks, credit unions- The New York State Department of Financial Services is calling on financial institutions it supervises to begin taking account of the financial risks posed by increasingly frequent and severe climate events. In a letter to New York-regulated financial institutions, Superintendent of Financial Services Linda Lacewell outlined the agency's expectations, as well as the rationale behind them. The department is the first banking regulator in the U.S. to explicitly call for banks under its supervision to incorporate climate-related risks into their strategy, risk management and corporate governance. “Climate change is happening now, and we have to take steps to manage the financial risks now,” Lacewell said in a press release Thursday. “We want to ensure that every institution is managing its own individual risks from climate change, which is critical for the safety and soundness of the financial services industry. By working with the industry and engaging in a dialogue on this serious issue, we are creating a road map for a more sustainable future.” The department regulates a wide range of large banks, foreign subsidiaries and community financial institutions. They include Bank of New York Mellon, Goldman Sachs Bank USA, M&T Bank, New York Community Bank and Bank of China. It also supervises state-chartered credit unions such as Hudson Valley Credit Union, Muncipal Credit Union and AmeriCU. State and federal banking regulators have begun to speak out about the connection between serious weather events and the financial system, but until now they have stopped short of asking banks to stress test for climate risks.That idea, which has already been adopted by central bankers abroad, seemed to be gaining more traction this year when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a report outlining the systemic financial risks posed by climate change and some steps to address those risks. Among those steps, the CFTC subcommittee recommends that banking regulators work closely with the institutions they supervise to undertake climate risk stress testing pilots and explore potential opportunities to be had from a transition to a low-carbon economy. The New York regulator appears to be the first to take up the challenge. It cited the CFTC’s report in its letter when it called out the physical risks posed by greater flooding and storm surges in particular.

 Banks, PPP recipients caught in bind between two SBA rescue programs— Banks are urging Congress to address more confusion about the Paycheck Protection Program, this time as it relates to the impact of another coronavirus relief initiative. As lenders process PPP forgiveness applications, they are being hit with the surprise that a certain amount of PPP loans cannot be forgiven if a borrower also sought aid from the Small Business Administration’s preexisting Economic Injury Disaster Loans program. In addition to establishing the PPP, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act allowed the SBA to provide up to $10,000 of a borrower's EIDL financing upfront as a grant. However, borrowers receiving the advance must have it deducted from their PPP forgiveness and converted to a loan payable to the PPP lender. While SBA says this policy was clearly communicated through guidance, banks say they had no clue if a PPP borrower also had an EIDL advance. The SBA clarified the restrictions in an interim rule in June and updated guidelines in August, but that was well after banks started receiving a flood of PPP applications. The CARES Act was enacted in March. “What’s happening is the amount of forgiveness on PPP is reduced and basically the SBA is putting the amount of the EIDL [advance] that they originated directly with the borrower onto my balance sheet,” said Noah Wilcox, chairman of the Independent Community Bankers of America and CEO of the $278 million-asset Grand Rapids State Bank in Grand Rapids, Minn. “It doesn’t make any sense.” Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., the ranking member of the Senate Small Business Committee, has drafted legislation to repeal the requirement that SBA deduct the amount of any EIDL advance from a borrower’s PPP forgiveness amount. Banks are also urging the SBA to halt implementing the requirement to avoid the financial shock for small businesses already reeling from the pandemic. The EIDL program was originally authorized under the Small Business Act. The CARES Act expanded eligibility to allow EIDL loans for businesses with up to 500 employees, and established the EIDL advances that totaled $20 billion. Borrowers could seek an advance totaling $1,000 per employee, up to $10,000. “The advance is where people got confused, because if you applied for the EIDL program, you will get an emergency advance and anybody who applied under the CARES Act, regardless of whether you get approved or not, you get this emergency advance and it was up to $10,000,” said Margaret Rosenfeld, a partner at K&L Gates. “That advance never has to be paid back … except if you also got a PPP. If you got a PPP, that advance gets rolled into the calculation for forgiveness under that.” Because the PPP program was administered through banks and the EIDL program was administered by the SBA, banks say they weren’t able to alert their borrowers that the EIDL advances would be deducted from the amount of the PPP loan that could be forgiven because they didn’t know whether businesses were participating in both programs. “The PPP lenders had no idea if the borrower had an EIDL loan or would get an EIDL loan in the future. They are operating kind of blind, independently of each other,”

Small businesses need more aid to keep employees, SBA chief says - Small businesses need a new round of loans and aid from the government to keep employees working as the pandemic continues to spread, the head of the Small Business Administration said Tuesday. SBA Administrator Jovita Carranza said business owners have told her they need a renewal of the Paycheck Protection Program that was part of the last stimulus passed by Congress, but with changes that would help them expand. “They’ve told me that another round of PPP would be helpful, but with different dynamics,” Carranza said on Bloomberg Radio’s "Balance of Power." They say they need loans that could specifically be used for business growth they had planned before the pandemic. “They want to make sure they don’t lose ground or momentum in that particular area,” she said, adding that the funding would ideally support investment in things like square footage and machinery to keep growing. Democrats and the White House have been unable to reach a deal on another stimulus package for the U.S. economy, despite agreement on individual provisions like renewing the PPP. The program ended Aug. 8 with almost $134 billion in funds left over. President Trump and his aides suggested Tuesday that any virus relief legislation likely would have to wait until after the Nov. 3 U.S. election. Carranza recently visited small businesses and parts of the lending community in Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. She said many businesses have been able to keep employees and add extra necessities, thanks to the PPP, which distributed 5.2 million loans worth $525 billion. “They’ve been adaptable. They’ve been able to pivot some of their business plans and incorporate some of the PPP,” she said. Many restaurants have been able to retain employees and regular business hours while still abiding to guidelines with outdoor dining and curbside pickup, Carranza said. But she said she’s still particularly worried about them. “When the winter hits, I don’t know how many more curbside meals you can have,” she said.

BankThink: Executive order on diversity a predicament for banks - The recent executive order essentially banning diversity training in companies that have contracts with the federal government is forcing banks to wade into a highly partisan political debate. Historically, most banks have adopted a strategy of strict political neutrality. However, over the past few years and increasingly over the past few months, that neutrality has become difficult to maintain. And in some cases, it’s been nearly impossible to remain neutral. The executive order issued in September is a specific example where neutrality doesn’t work — it is a dangerous development that requires a specific and forceful response. Let’s face it, with all that has gone on in 2020 this is a fight that nobody saw coming and few, if any, wanted. The country overall is still grappling with a pandemic that has enormous health and economic consequences, participating in passionate discussions on racial and social justice, and staggering through one of the ugliest and most divisive election cycles in recent memory. Taken alone, each one of these issues would have significant implications for banks and their risk profiles. Together, they constitute an unprecedented trifecta of economic, operational and reputational risk that has challenged the resources and capabilities of many individual banks, as well as the entire industry. For the most part, the industry has responded well. Banks have ignored the inexplicable political dimensions of the coronavirus pandemic and focused on doing the things necessary to accommodate their customers, protect employees and strengthen their balance sheets. Many bankers have reaffirmed their commitment to diversity and inclusion, and have publicly supported the right to engage in peaceful protests. There have also been examples of banks using their codes of conduct appropriately to discipline employees who do something politically extreme that has the potential to blow back on the company’s reputation and brand. Throughout banks have been able to navigate these troubled waters and focus on specific and tactical responses to individual challenges rather than become bogged down with the underlying political considerations. This approach is not available to address the president’s executive order banning diversity training. The order is quite straightforward and unambiguous. It states that diversity training is divisive and “un-American,” and prohibits any company doing business with the government from implementing diversity training programs that provide any context — historical or otherwise — to explain the need and rationale for creating expanded opportunities for minority employees and communities. The program is administered by the Department of Labor and investigations are triggered by receiving a complaint from just about anybody — an employee, vendor, customer or even an unaffiliated third party. Companies found in violation of the order can lose their government contracts. While not all banks have explicit federal “contracts,” virtually all have some relationship with the federal government. It’s unclear whether this order applies to those relationships as well. Regardless, many banks have customers that conduct business with the federal government and significant penalties could impact the risk profiles of those customers. So, one way or another, many banks likely have some skin in this game.

Can credit unions keep up with COVID's evolving phishing threats? -With more credit union employees working from home than ever before, hackers are on the lookout for security weaknesses on home networks – often through email phishing schemes – that could compromise those institutions’ data. The National Credit Union Administration cautioned the industry early on in the pandemic about ongoing security risks, and the issue has taken on new relevance recently in the wake of more data breaches at retailers and October’s designation as Cybersecurity Awareness Month. The annual True Cost of Fraud report from Lexis Nexis also indicates fraud – and its impact on the financial services sector – has increased since the pandemic began. The monthly number of fraud attempts each month for the financial services sector has risen by 14% since last year, but the number of attempts that succeeded is up by 42%, according to the study, released earlier this month. The company’s research found that financial firms spend $3.64 for every dollar lost to fraud, a 12% increase from 2019. The 2020 Phishing Trends Report from Keepnet Labs found that 90% of all successful cyber attacks begin via email. That's backed up by Specops Software, a Sweden-based provider of password managment and authentication solutoins that works with many U.S. credit unions, which said more than half of all businesses have seen a rise in cybercrime since working from home became the norm. Specops cybersecurity expert Darren James said the finance sector, in particular, is reporting an increase in the number of phishing attacks since the pandemic began. Hackers are creating elaborate and convincing emails to fool employees, and concerned staffers sometimes let down their guard and click malicious links or download attachments. “When we were all in the same office, we could consult a colleague when we received a suspicious email, but working from home prevents people from asking for a second opinion or double-checking a strange request from the CEO,” James said. Passwords are often the weak link in cybersecurity because they are used everywhere, James said. Studies have shown that employees of financial companies need to remember an average of 69 passwords, so people often reuse them across multiple platforms. Credit unions should secure their Windows passwords by preventing employees from choosing weak and leaked passwords. Password-vulnerability scans from vendors can help a credit union understand internal weaknesses surrounding passwords, James said. They should also enable multi-factor authentication where possible and invest in security training and guidance for staff members on how to securely use their IT systems, James said.

 Credit unions want CECL changes, but NCUA's hands are tied - While many in the credit union industry continue to call for an exemption from the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s current expected credit losses plan, industry groups want the National Credit Union Administration to make changes to its proposed CECL phase-in rule that allow for additional flexibility. The agency approved a proposal in July that echoes similar action from federal bank regulators, giving credit unions a three-year phase-in period in the hopes of cushioning capital levels. Since then, NCUA Chairman Rodney Hood — along with other industry figures — has continued to call for credit unions to be made fully exempt from CECL requirements. In comment letters submitted to the regulator after the NCUA proposal was issued, credit union representatives acknowledged that the regulator is largely subject to FASB’s decisions on the standard, but still found plenty of ways the proposal could be improved. A key component of CECL is a provision that allows institutions under $10 million in assets to be exempted from following generally accepted accounting principles when determining loan loss reserves. But while only a relative few banks are that small, over 1,200 credit unions — nearly 25% of the entire industry — fall into that asset class. But that measure could still cause problems for some credit unions. For instance, some state-chartered institutions — even those under $10 million of assets — must establish methodologies for losses in accordance with GAAP, noted Stephen Nelson, VP of support for Utah’s Credit Unions. Because of that, he added, it is incumbent upon the federal regulator to work with state supervisory agencies on regulatory changes that can provide similar CECL relief for state-chartered CUs. For many credit unions under $10 million, wrote Nelson, “their loan losses are so far and few between, and their volume of loans is so small, that rigorous modeling is less effective than their regular daily monitoring of asset quality. In fact, $10 million may be too low of a limit — although I recognize that … NCUA is limited in that regard.” Some credit unions have also raised concerns surrounding the rule’s transition timing, including dates at which implementation begins. “We are concerned the language within the proposed rule fails to properly account for credit unions that have a non-calendar fiscal year,” wrote Rex Spivey, chief financial at State Employees’ Credit Union in North Carolina. “This directly impacts SECU, which as a state-chartered federally insured credit union, has a fiscal year end of June 30th. Other state-chartered credit unions may have fiscal years ending at other times.” Spivey added that CECL takes effect “for fiscal years beginning after Dec. 15, 2022, not calendar years. As such, the day-one impact occurs by reference to an entity’s fiscal year. Because credit union fiscal years can vary, the calendar day in 2023 when the impact comes into existence likewise varies. But while the exact date of the CECL implementation may differ from credit union to credit union, the regulatory impact to capital will not.” The League of Southeastern Credit Unions, which serves CUs in Alabama, Florida and Georgia, suggested allowing institutions to adopt the full day-one impact whenever they choose, so long as they do so before the implementation date, “rather than being required to phase-in the transition and to make accommodations for those credit unions that may transition from under the $10 million asset adoption threshold to above it,” wrote LSCU President Jared Ross. He added that league recommends NCUA explore raising the $10 million-asset threshold.

NCUA board OKs interagency guidance proposal - The National Credit Union Administration board on Wednesday approved the agency’s part in an interagency role on supervisory guidance, codifying measures the regulator took on its own years ago and another interagency statement from 2018. In the meeting, held virtually and livestreamed via the agency's website, NCUA Chairman Rodney Hood noted that the rule reiterates distinctions between regulation and guidance, while making clear that citations will only be issued for violations of law and regulation or noncompliance with other enforceable measures. He added that examiners may reference supervisory guidance in writing to provide examples of safety and soundness practices, consumer protection and risk management, but the interagency proposal clarifies that supervisory guidance on its own is not enforceable and does not carry the same weight as regulation or law. The proposed rule is not expected to provide any additional burden to credit unions in part because examiner guidance updated in 2013 differentiated between documents of resolution and examiner findings. The rule is not expected to impact NCUA’s ability to issue guidance in the future and board member Todd Harper said the proposal “will not substantively change” the regulator’s existing examination policies. Representatives for the regulator said during the meeting that the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and others have already voted to adopt the rule. NCUA had originally hoped to present it during its Oct. 15 board meeting, but the Sunshine Act requires agencies to make their agendas public at least seven days in advance and staff had not yet received confirmation that other agencies had approves the final version of the rule. Having received unanimous approval from the NCUA board, the proposal will now go forward for a 60-day comment period. In a separate closed-door meeting, the board was also scheduled to discuss a pair of personnel matters. Additional details were not immediately available. 

NCUA issues lifetime ban for embezzlement The National Credit Union Administration barred just one person from working in financial services in October. The agency said on Friday that it issued a prohibition notice against Schantol Collins, a former employee of the $129 million-asset Members Exchange Credit Union in Ridgeland, Miss. Collins pleaded guilty to embezzlement in the Circuit Court of Rankin County in Mississippi and was sentenced in January, according to the prohibition order. The prohibition order did not provide more details on the charges. In September, the regulator barred a former teller from working at any financial institution after she was accused of stealing more than $19,000. NCUA, which releases news about its prohibition orders each month, has issued about 30 so far this year, and is on track for its fewest bans in more than five years.

OCC announces initiative to expand credit access in Los Angeles - The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced a partnership with authorities and businesses in Los Angeles to facilitate initiatives improving access to the credit. The effort, announced Friday afternoon, is the first local offshoot of the OCC's Project REACh (“Roundtable for Economic Access and Change”) launched in July. The project is intended to bring together business leaders, government officials and community advocates to help improve financial services options for disadvantaged communities. The OCC said in a press release that “L.A. REACh" will "promote greater access to affordable housing, enhance small business financing, and create opportunities to reinvigorate area minority-owned financial institutions.” Kathryn Barger, chair of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, said in the press release that Project REACh and its local initiative in L.A. “will eliminate existing barriers that most disproportionately impact vulnerable populations, and open the doors to the free-market system that has brought so many out of poverty.” Acting Comptroller Brian Brooks, who has spearheaded the effort and cited the summer’s protests following the death of George Floyd as the motivation, said the aim of Project REACh is "to tear down barriers that keep our economy and financial system from providing the same full, fair, equal access to everyone." The broader efforts of Project REACh center around convening bankers, regulators, civil rights leaders and community advocates to discuss possible approaches to reforming the credit system, citing the tens of millions of Americans who lack credit scores or have otherwise been prevented from accessing much of the financial system. According to a factsheet published by the OCC, the project has three core goals: the creation of an “alternative credit scoring method,” expanding banks’ affordable housing portfolios “through low-cost transfer and renovation loans,” and addressing "structural barriers" that frequently prevent or discourage poor communities from using financial services.

What debt collectors can and can't do under CFPB rule - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a final debt collection rule on Friday that restricts how often collectors can call borrowers to seven calls per week but for the first time allows communications by voice mail, email and text messages. The CFPB established rules to allow the use of technologies developed after the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act passed in 1977. Consumers can opt out of such modern communications. “With the vast changes in communications since the FDCPA was passed more than four decades ago, it is important to provide clear rules of the road,” CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger said in a press release. “Our debt collection rulemaking provides limits on debt collectors and provides clear rights for consumers. With this modernized debt collection rule, consumers will have greater control when communicating with debt collectors.” Debt collectors are required to offer consumers “a reasonable and simple method” to opt out of communications sent to a specific email address or phone number, the CFPB said. If a debt collector uses electronic communications to reach a consumer, the consumer can use the same technology to submit a "cease communication" request or notify the debt collector that they refuse to pay the debt, the CFPB said. Consumer advocates have criticized the rule for opening the floodgates for collectors to bombard consumers with texts and emails. The 653-page final rule included significant changes from the CFPB's May proposal, which received 14,000 public comments.The rule provides a safe harbor to debt collectors that call consumers seven times a week or less by phone. But violating that limit may not automatically result in a penalty. The CFPB said other factors must be considered when a debt collector exceeds the seven-call cap, such as whether the calls “had the intent to annoy, abuse, or harass the person at the called number.” Still, when a collector exceeds the seven-call cap, it is grounds for a consumer to sue. Also notable is that the CFPB did not provide clarity to the industry about validation notices, which debt collectors are required to send to consumers notifying them of an outstanding debt. The notices are a critical piece of the debt collection process that can have an impact on a consumer's right to dispute the debt. The bureau said it is still doing qualitative testing on validation notices. “Much of the litigation in debt collection revolves around validation notices so for industry that is a big punt because it harms all stakeholders,” said Joann Needleman, an attorney at the law firm Clark Hill. In another win for collectors, the bureau dropped its so-called "meaningful involvement" requirement, under which an attorney who sends a letter using letterhead must actually be involved in the collection process.

Two consumer groups sue CFPB over payday rule - Public Citizen and the Center for Responsible Lending sued the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Thursday to overturn its 2020 payday lending rule, alleging the bureau violated the Administrative Procedure Act and the Dodd-Frank Act. The two consumer groups alleged in a lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia that the rule — which itself repealed most of the bureau’s 2017 payday rule — was not supported by evidence. The groups sued on behalf of the National Association for Latino Community Asset Builders, a nonprofit group of community and economic development organizations, saying the rule was based on “an invented evidentiary standard,” and failed to consider consumer protections mandated by Dodd-Frank. “This rule is a slap in the face to consumers and is particularly ill-timed when so many people are facing financial distress due to the pandemic,” said Rebecca Smullin, the Public Citizen attorney serving as lead counsel on the case. “The CFPB’s rule appears to be crafted solely to boost lenders’ profits, contrary to the consumer financial protection mission of the agency.” In July, CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger rescinded tough ability-to-repay underwriting standards in the 2017 payday rule but left intact payment provisions that have not yet gone into effect. Under the rule, lenders are prohibited from withdrawing funds from a consumer’s bank account after two consecutive failed attempts unless the consumer consents to further withdrawals. Consumer groups were expected to sue to repeal the payday rule arguing that the bureau spent five years developing consumer safeguards that were reversed by the Trump administration. The Administrative Procedure Act requires rigorous research and analysis, not just a policy disagreement, to change existing rules. “Reversing course, without any rational basis for doing so, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the economy, will only push struggling families closer to the brink,” said Will Corbett, litigation director at the Center for Responsible Lending.

OCC chief says agency is close to proposing new CRA scoring benchmarks— The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will soon propose a long-anticipated scoring framework to determine if a bank's Community Reinvestment Act activity meets minimum standards, said acting Comptroller Brian Brooks. The proposal, a follow-up to the OCC's sweeping CRA reform rule issued in May, is expected within the next 10 days, Brooks said. “In terms of starting our work, we now have a more or less completed draft of this document that is going through final internal review,” he said Monday during a virtual event hosted by the Women in Housing and Finance. “I would expect that's going to be released in the next week or 10 days, so that'll be up very soon.” The new scoring thresholds are the final major piece of the OCC’s effort to modernize the law, which the agency has undertaken without the backing of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Federal Reserve. The OCC's rule had deferred action on the scoring metrics for a later date, saying the agency required more information from the banking industry. The scoring thresholds will ultimately determine the performance standards for banks to achieve either “satisfactory” or “outstanding” CRA ratings. The regulatory filing will be a fully formed notice of proposed rulemaking, according to Brooks, as opposed to a more exploratory advance notice of proposed rulemaking. “I don’t believe in waiting,” Brooks said. “I want to get straight to the chase.” In its initial CRA reform proposal, released in December 2019, the OCC unveiled proposed benchmarks that would compare a bank’s CRA lending activity to its retail domestic lending activity in a given area. If a bank’s CRA lending constituted between 10% to 15% of its retail lending, it would achieve an “outstanding” rating, and a “satisfactory” rating if that percentage was between 5% and 10%. However, shortly after the proposed rule was released, in January, the OCC issued a request for information for additional bank-specific data to help regulators determine the appropriate scoring thresholds, and the benchmarks did not appear in the OCC's final rulemaking in May. Meanwhile, industry representatives have urged the three agencies to eventually come together on a joint final rule reforming the CRA. In late September, the Fed released a policy outline detailing its approach to modernizing the act, which featured substantial similarities as well as notable differences compared with the OCC’s approach.

BankThink Fed’s CRA plan does too much, and too little - The Federal Reserve’s proposed Community Reinvestment Act reform is a disappointment for not doing what it was supposed to do, and for doing something that it was never asked to. When regulatory efforts began, modernizing the 1977 CRA to account for digital and branchless banking was the simple goal, according to both the Treasury Department and the Fed. Instead, the Fed’s advance notice of proposed rulemaking tries to reinvent the CRA wheel. It should have merely adopted the 5% deposit reinvestment provision as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency did in its final CRA rule released in May. The OCC’s straightforward rule requires giant credit card companies and other branchless banks to define their assessment areas where they provide CRA benefits to include any geography sourcing 5% or more of their deposits. This is a critically needed improvement over the current practice of allowing such banks to benefit their headquartered states of Delaware, South Dakota and Utah that have banker-friendly laws. Most important, the 5% requirement is consistent with CRA’s purpose of reinvesting federally insured deposits back into their sourced communities, as its name implies. Also, there is little regulatory burden, since every branchless bank gets regular reports on the geographies sourcing its deposits, down to ZIP codes or even census tracts. The OCC-regulated megabanks like American Express will now be required to provide CRA loans, investments and services to benefit low- and moderate-income households in banking deserts and distressed neighborhoods in our big cities, by reinvesting the deposits from their affluent neighborhoods. However, the Fed’s proposal would allow its regulated giant branchless banks like Ally Financial and Goldman Sachs to place their CRA benefits anywhere with the (misguided) concept of a “national” assessment area. Why even have a CRA if these giant internet banks can place their CRA benefits wherever they would like? An even more bizarre Fed modernization idea is their suggestion of a loan-based assessment area for such banks. This is backward since banks should lend where they take deposits, not where they already lend. That could reinforce bad banking habits like redlining. In addition to not applying the 5% deposit solution, the Fed decided to totally reform a law that has been working fine for banks and communities since the 1995 reforms. Further, the Fed didn’t provide any proof that the current regs are not working, other than needing to be modernized and tuned up with some generally accepted improvements. The closest the Fed’s CRA proposal got to being right was by leaving most of the current exam procedures for small, special-purpose and strategic plan banks in place. There is absolutely no need for a total overhaul of CRA, based upon research of thousands of bank CRA exams since 1995. Modernizing and tuning it up with some needed improvements, like a laundry list of what counts for CRA credit, yes. But not a major overall.

CFPB fines Washington Federal $200,000 for HMDA errors - Washington Federal Bank in Seattle has agreed to pay a $200,000 fine to settle allegations by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that it reported inaccurate data about home loan applications. The CFPB said the unit of the $18 billion-asset Washington Federal submitted Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data in 2016 and 2017 that contained significant errors. The CFPB and other regulators use HMDA data to examine and identify fair-lending violations. Inaccurate data can make it hard for regulators and the public to root out discrimination in mortgage lending, the bureau said in a press release. Washington Federal reported HMDA data on 7,000 loans in 2016 and 2017. The bank currently is subject to a 2013 consent order based on previous findings by the CFPB that it violated HMDA and Regulation C. "The occurrence of errors in many different fields, rather than concentrated in one or two fields, indicates broad [compliance management system] failures and a lack of adequate resources, because the errors were not caught, and the errors cannot be directly attributed to one or two systemic failures," the bureau said in the order, which was released Tuesday. The bank’s HMDA errors in 2016 were caused by a lack of staff, insufficient training and ineffective quality control, the bureau said. In a review of 100 files, the CFPB found a 40% error rate in Washington Federal’s 2016 HMDA data. The 2017 HMDA errors are directly related to weaknesses in the bank’s compliance-management system, board and management oversight, monitoring, and policies and procedures, the CFPB said. The bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In addition to the $200,000 civil money penalty, the bank is required to develop and implement an effective compliance-management system to prevent future violations, the CFPB said.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 5.90%" --Note: This is as of October 18th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 5.90%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 5.92% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.90% as of October 18, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.0 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....“The share of loans in forbearance declined only slightly in the prior week, after two weeks of a flurry of borrowers exiting as they reached the six-month mark,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “There continues to be a steady improvement for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, but the forbearance share for Ginnie Mae, portfolio, and PLS loans all increased. This is further evidence of the unevenness in the current economic recovery. The housing market is booming, as shown by the extremely strong pace of home sales last week. However, many homeowners continue to struggle, as the pace of the job market’s improvement has waned.”...By stage, 25.02% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 73.14% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.84% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.10% to 0.11%."There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of October 27th. From Forbearance Numbers Rise Above 3 Million Once AgainIn the past week, we saw the number of mortgages in active forbearance rise by 31,000 (a 1% increase). This increase was driven by limited extension and removal activity, along with an increase in forbearance starts. There were 50,000 forbearance removals this week, the lowest of any week during the recovery, while the 89,000 extensions were the fewest we’ve seen in nine weeks. We also saw about 33,000 new forbearance plans begin.In total, forbearance plan starts are up 15% in October compared to the month prior, with the rise driven by borrowers reactivating previously expired plans. New forbearance activations are down 7% from September, while re-activations are up 50%. This is most likely in reaction to the large volume of plans than were removed early in the month.As of Oct. 27, the number of active forbearances has ticked back up over 3 million again for the first time since early October, representing approximately 5.7% of all active mortgages, up from 5.6% from last week. Together, they represent $619 billion in unpaid principal. Of the just over 3 million loans still in active forbearance, more than 80% have had their terms extended at some point since March. With 365,000 forbearance plans still set to expire in October, we could see increased levels of extension and removal activity in the coming weeks, so be sure to continue to monitor this blog for future findings.

 Residential Evictions Bearing Down on Many Tenants - Yves Smith --As we’ve been saying on several fronts, winter is coming, and that includes the January 1 expiration of the Presidential order barring residential evictions. If Trump loses next week’s election, he presumably wont’ extend it even the few weeks to the end of his term, and Biden has not made any noise about taking measures to keep people who’ve suffered income hits under Covid housed.  And if Team Dem’s fallback is a stimulus bill under Biden, good luck with that. It’s unlikely that citizens would get cash before early March, and even that charitably assumes the relief would be large enough to make up for months of no or inadequate income. Nolo provides a summary of each state’s eviction laws; you can see they are all short-trigger. And that’s before getting to the fact that the CDC eviction moratorium wasn’t comprehensive (for instance, it didn’t address month-to-month rentals) and that it calls on tenants to make attestations, which some landlords are challenging. From MarketWatch last week: The moratorium’s protections were not granted automatically to all tenants. Instead, renters essentially have to opt in by notifying their landlord with a signed affidavit that they cannot afford their full monthly rental payments….. Because renters need to be proactive to receive protection under the moratorium, those who don’t do so can still face eviction. Since the moratorium was first announced in early September, the country has seen nearly 9,500 eviction filings by private-equity firms and other corporate landlords, according to data from the Private Equity Stakeholder Project. These represent filings in just five states: Arizona, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida.And the number has trended up recently — in the week ending Oct. 16 there were nearly 2,000 eviction cases filed, which was nearly double the number from the previous two weeks. Even so, it appears that most renters in arrears are getting a stay of execution until January, where the prospects for landlords giving relief don’t look great. As the Wall Street Journal reports, a lot of tenants are already borrowing on their credit cards to try to keep from falling too far behind. Yet given the way Covid-19 has hit broad swathes of middle and lower income workers, such as restaurant and hotel employees, trainers, beauty salon operators and owners, it’s not clear how evicting landlords expect to find creditworthy replacements, even at lower rental levels. From the Journal: A large number of renters have been unable to pay some or even all of their rent since March, when the pandemic temporarily shut down most businesses. Many businesses remain closed or only partially open, pushing renters into unemployment and draining their savings…. A study of unemployed workers released last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia calculated outstanding rent debt would reach $7.2 billion before the close of 2020. Moody’s Analytics estimates that it could reach nearly $70 billion by year-end if there is no additional stimulus spending. The economic-research firm calculated that 12.8 million Americans would then owe an average of $5,400 from missed payments. Even the larger figure would be far less than what was lost when the $1.3 trillion subprime-mortgage bubble burst, leading to a national wave of defaults and foreclosures. But the tens of millions of people potentially caught in a web of home-rental debt and eviction would far exceed the 3.8 million homeowners who were foreclosed on in 2007-2010.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.7% year-over-year in August: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3 month average of June, July and August prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Increased to 5.7% in August: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.7% annual gain in August, up from 4.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.7%, up from 3.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.2% year-over-year gain, up from 4.1% in the previous month.Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in August. Phoenix led the way with a 9.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with an 8.5% increase and San Diego with a 7.6% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending August 2020 versus the year ending July 2020....The National Index posted a 1.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.1% before seasonal adjustment in August. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, while the 10-City and 20- City Composites both posted increases of 0.5%. In August, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.“Housing prices were strong in August,” . “The National Composite Index gained 5.7% relative to its level a year ago, well ahead of July’s 4.8% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 4.7% and 5.2%, respectively) also rose at an accelerating pace in August. The strength of the housing market was consistent nationally – all 19 cities for which we have August data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in August than they had done in the 12 months ended in July. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices. The National index is 20.1% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.0% (SA) in August.  The National index is up 62% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA). The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

 Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Annual growth in September as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate" - The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: August Case-Shiller Results and September Forecast: No Signs of Cooling: The remarkable surge in home prices continued into August as prices showed no signs of cooling down heading into the fall....By some measures, home prices are rising at a faster pace than they ever have – an incredible feat considering the market is rising from an already elevated level. The supply of for-sale homes, already extremely tight, has only become more constrained in recent months, and historically low mortgage rates continue to encourage many buyers to enter the market. This heightened competition for the few homes on the market has placed consistent, firm pressure on home prices for months now, and there are few signs that this will relent any time soon. While the path of the overall economy is likely to be most directly dictated by coronavirus-related and political developments in the coming months, recent trends suggest that the housing market – which has basically withstood every pandemic-related challenge to this point – will continue its strong momentum in the months to come. Annual growth in September as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, November 24.

FHFA House Price Index: Up 2.6% in August: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for August. Here is the opening of the press release: House prices rose nationwide in August, up 1.5 percent from the previous month, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 8.0 percent from August 2019 to August 2020. FHFA also revised its previously reported 1.0 percent price change for July 2020 to 1.1 percent.For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from July 2020 to August 2020 ranged from +0.9 percent in the East South Central division to +1.9 percent in the West South Central division. The 12-month changes ranged from +7.2 percent in the West North Central division to +9.7 percent in the Mountain division.“U.S. house prices posted a strong increase in August,” said Dr. Lynn Fisher, FHFA’s Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics. “Between July and August 2020, national prices increased by 1.5 percent, which represents the largest one-month price increase observed since the start of the index in 1991. This large month-over-month gain contributes to an already strong increase in prices over the summer. These price gains can be attributed to the historically low interest rate environment, rebounding housing demand, and continued supply constraints.” The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 23, 2020.... The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 80 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 24 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage applications to buy a home were flat compared to the prior week, but overall activity remains strong this fall. Applications jumped 24 percent compared to last year, and the average loan size reached another record high at $372,600. These results highlight just how strong the upper end of the market is right now, with outsized growth rates in the higher loan size categories. Furthermore, housing inventory shortages have pushed national home prices considerably higher on an annual basis,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associative Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Refinance activity has been somewhat volatile over the past few months but did increase almost 3 percent last week. With the 30-year fixed rate at MBA’s all-time survey low of 3.00 percent, conventional refinances rose 5 percent. However, the government refinance index decreased for the first time in a month, driven by a slowdown in VA refinance activity.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 3.00 percent from 3.02 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.The refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity.But with record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year.  The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

New Home Sales decreased to 959,000 Annual Rate in September--The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 959 thousand.  The previous three months were revised down, combined.Sales of new single-family houses in September 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 959,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.5 percent below the revised August rate of 994,000, but is 32.1 percent above the September 2019 estimate of 726,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.  This is the second highest sales rate since 2006 (just below last month). The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.  The months of supply increased in September to 3.6 months from 3.4 months in August. The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low was 3.4 months in August 2020.  This is below the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal). "The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 284,000. This represents a supply of 3.6 months at the current sales rate."  Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.  The inventory of completed homes for sale is low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is lower than normal.   The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In September 2020 (red column), 75 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 56 thousand homes were sold in September.  The all time high for September was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011.  This was below expectations of 1,025 thousand sales SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised down, combined..

A few Comments on September New Home Sales -- New home sales for September were reported at 959,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised down, combined. This was below consensus expectations, but was still the third highest sales rate since 2006 (behind July and August). Clearly low mortgages rates, low existing home supply, and low sales in March and April (due to the pandemic) have led to a strong increase in sales.  Favorable demographics (something I wrote about many times over the last decade) and a surging stock market have probably helped new home sales too.  Earlier: New Home Sales decreased to 959,000 Annual Rate in September.This graph shows new home sales for 2019 and 2020 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).  New home sales were up 32.1% year-over-year (YoY) in August.   Year-to-date (YTD) sales are up 16.9%. And on inventory: since new home sales are reported when the contract is signed - even if the home hasn't been started - new home sales are not limited by inventory (except if no lots are available).  Inventory for new home sales is important in that it means there will be more housing starts if inventory is low (like right now) - and fewer starts if inventory is too high (not now). Usually New Home Sales is a great leading indicator for the economy, however, currently the course of the economy will be determined by the course of the virus, and New Home Sales tell us nothing about the future of the pandemic.  Without the pandemic, I'd obviously be very positive about this report.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 2.2% in September - From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Falter 2.2% in September The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.2% to 130.0 in September. Year-over-year, contract signings rose 20.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....The Northeast PHSI grew 2.0% to 119.4 in September, a 27.7% increase from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index slid 3.2% to 120.5 last month, up 18.5% from September 2019.Pending home sales in the South decreased 3.0% to an index of 150.1 in September, up 19.6% from September 2019. The index in the West fell 2.6% in September to 116.8, up 19.3% from a year ago. This was below expectations for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

 HVS: Q3 2020 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates --The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2020. It is likely the results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic.  See note from Census below. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. he Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend. National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2020 were 6.4 percent for rental housing and 0.9 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.4 percent was 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2019 (6.8 percent) and 0.7 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter 2020 (5.7 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.9 percent was 0.5 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2019 (1.4 percent) and virtually unchanged from the rate in the second quarter 2020 (0.9 percent). The homeownership rate of 67.4 percent was 2.6 percentage points higher than the rate in the third quarter 2019 (64.8 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2020 (67.9 percent). "  The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st 1990, 2000 and 2010. The HVS homeownership rate decreased to 67.4% in Q3, from 67.9% in Q2..   It is likely the results in Q2 and Q3 were distorted by the pandemic.The HVS homeowner vacancy was unchanged at 0.9%.  Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. I'd put more weight on the decennial Census numbers.From Census:Due to the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), data collection operations for the CPS/HVS were affected during the third quarter of 2020, as in-person interviews were only allowed for portions of the sample in July (41 percent), August (53 percent), and September (100 percent). The remaining interviews were conducted over the telephone. If the Field Representative was unable to get contact information on the sample unit, the unit was made a Type A noninterview (no one home, refusal, etc). We are unable to determine the extent to which this data collection change affected our estimates.The rental vacancy rate increased to 6.4% in Q3.

Q3 2020 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate --The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report this morning. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 14.6% annual pace in Q3. This is the fourth consecutive quarterly decline (weakness started before the pandemic).Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration decreased sharply in Q3 compared to Q2, and was down 60% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices decreased in Q3, but was only down 5.9% year-over-year. Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 24% year-over-year in Q3 - and at a record low as a percent of GDP.   The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.Lodging investment decreased in Q3, and lodging investment was down 14% year-over-year. All three sectors - offices, malls, and hotels - are being hurt significantly by the pandemic. The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes).Even though investment in single family structures has increased from the bottom, single family investment is still low, and still below the bottom for previous recessions as a percent of GDP. I expect some further increases in single family investment. Investment in single family structures was $285 billion (SAAR) (about 1.3% of GDP).. Investment in multi-family structures increased in Q3. Investment in home improvement was at a $296 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q3 (about 1.4% of GDP).  Home improvement spending has been solid and might hold up during the pandemic. Note that Brokers' commissions increased sharply as existing home sales picked up in Q3.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30.7% Year-over-year From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 17 October: U.S. hotel occupancy was virtually flat from the previous week at 50.1%, according to the latest data from STR through 17 October.
11-17 October 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 50.1% (-30.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$97.69 (-28.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$48.91 (-50.3%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).So far there has been little business travel pickup that usually happens in the Fall. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 31.7% Year-over-year From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 24 October:U.S. weekly hotel occupancy fell back below the 50% mark, according to the latest data from STR through 24 October.
18-24 October 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 48.0% (-31.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$95.49 (-29.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$45.83 (-51.8%)
Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate, we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:This suggests no improvement over the last 6 weeks.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020). Seasonally we'd expect the occupancy rate to start declining. Note that there was little pickup in business travel that usually happens in the Fall.

Restaurants face a new wave of restrictions as U.S. cases hit record high -Restaurants are facing a new wave of restrictions, posing yet another obstacle in their attempts to stay afloat and recover from the coronavirus pandemic. New daily Covid-19 cases in the United States hit a record high of 88,521 on Thursday, according a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. "We're starting to find ourselves on a steep slope of the epidemic curve, so I think you're going to see cases accelerate," former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb said Friday on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "There's about 15 states where the positivity rate's above 10%, the reproduction number is greater than 1 in all 50 states right now." The positivity rate shows the percentage of tests for the coronavirus that come back positive, while the reproduction number is a way of gauging Covid-19's ability to spread. Both of these numbers suggest a rapid increase ahead. The surge in cases has led some areas of the country to reimpose tighter restrictions on dining. Indoor dining is once again banned at Chicago restaurants, starting Friday. In Denver, restaurant capacity has been slashed from 50% to 25% and last call for alcoholic drinks is now 10 p.m. In Europe, which is facing a second peak of infections, countrywide dining mandates are happening once again. France is reentering lockdown, which includes temporarily shuttering businesses considered nonessential, like bars and restaurants. Germany's eateries and bars will close for one month, starting Nov. 2, in a partial lockdown. While the pandemic has stretched on, restaurants and their out-of-work employees have been left waiting for another stimulus package from the federal government. Loans given to eateries through the Paycheck Protection Program have since run out, and September's unemployment rate of 7.9% means many consumers don't have the cash to spare on dining out. Chain restaurants are bouncing back more quickly than independent establishments, but the uncertainty around the surge of Covid-19 cases makes forecasting their recovery even more difficult. Starbucks, for example, said Thursday that 63% of its U.S. cafes have limited seating. The coffee chain expects to return to same-store sales growth by the end of its fiscal second quarter in March, but that forecast assumes that cafe seating and operating hours will near full capacity by that time. Some full-service restaurant companies, like Texas Roadhouse and Darden Restaurants, have tied their sales recovery directly to loosened dining restrictions. And cold weather means that many restaurants that have relied on patio dining will take a hit.

Consumer Confidence Decreases in October - The headline number of 100.9 was a decrease from the final reading of 101.3 for August. Today's number was above theInvesting.com consensus of 102.0.“Consumer confidence declined slightly in October, following a sharp improvement in September,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved while expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in the short-term outlook for jobs. There is little to suggest that consumers foresee the economy gaining momentum in the final months of 2020, especially with COVID-19 cases on the rise and unemployment still high.” Read more The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

Personal Income increased 0.9% in September, Spending increased 1.4% -- The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $170.3 billion (0.9 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $150.3 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $201.4 billion (1.4 percent). Real DPI increased 0.7 percent in September and Real PCE increased 1.2 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent (table 9). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. The September PCE price index increased 1.4 percent year-over-year and the September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.5 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2020 (2012 dollars).  The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was higher than expected,  and the increase in PCE was above expectations. Note the red line for Q3 (the quarterly level of PCE).   This is still 3.3% below the Q4 2019 level for PCE.

Personal income and spending both surprisingly continued to increase in September, plus a note on GDP - Yesterday the first estimate of Q3 GDP was reported. Since this report includes 2 long leading indicators, it gives us insight into what the economy might be like in the 2nd half of next year.  This morning personal income and spending for September was reported. Both real income and spending increased, which is positive – and surprising. On the spending side, below I show real personal spending (blue) in comparison with real retail sales (red), both scaled to 100 as of January of this year:  Both show similar trajectories, collapsing in April and rebounding since, including a further monthly increase from August to September. While real retail sales have exceeded their precession peak, the broader measure of real personal spending has still only recovered about 85% of its decline. .On the income side, here is a long term view of real personal income minus transfer payments (like unemployment insurance)(red, right scale) vs. real disposable personal income (blue, left scale): The former is one of the coincident economic series focused on by the NBER in declaring the beginning and end dates for recessions. Similarly to real personal income less transfer payments discussed above, it has rebounded by about 70% from its April bottom. Disposable income, however, increased sharply with the emergency Congressional stimulus, and remains elevated several percent above where it was just before the pandemic hit, as shown better in the close-up of the last two years shown below: The continuing improvement in spending, and the fact that income remains elevated, despite the failure of Congress (due almost 100% to the Senate) to extend any further stimulus, is the biggest surprise in the economic data over the past several months.

"A Lot Of Hoarding" - Americans Race To Supermarkets As Second Wave Arrives  - The outlook for the virus pandemic is worsening across the country, with more than twenty states reporting case numbers at or near record levels. As cases rise, so do anxieties among consumers who have already started panic hoarding for the second time this year as the COVID winter approaches.As the panic hoarding begins, food makers are prepared this time, unlike the first round that started in March, which resulted in widespread shortages of food products.  Bloomberg notes General Mills, Campbel Soup, Conagra Brands, and Stonyfield Farm have expanded internal and external product lines this summer to prepare for another panic wave of buying. "America's food-makers are determined not to get caught flatfooted again. Many companies left sales on the table this spring when they couldn't ramp up production fast enough for the dried pasta and canned soups that skittish consumers were stockpiling. Food producers used a calmer summer to assess the new grocery landscape and rework their strategies. Now, with Covid-19 cases climbing again and big holiday meals getting closer, investors are waiting to see whether it will be enough," Bloomberg said. According to Centricity Inc., a firm that tracks online search activity, panic hoarding for the second time this year is underway. They said demand for baking goods in the three weeks through Oct. 13 spiked 3,400% from a year earlier. "That's less than the 6,000% jump that preceded the first wave of pantry loading," said Centricity's chief executive officer Mike Brackett, adding that he expects this round will include other products besides canned goods and other staples.  "In the last three to four weeks, we've seen very drastic increases, similar to how we did with the first wave of the pandemic," Brackett said.  The second round of panic hoarding comes as new COVID-19 daily cases have been steadily increasing since September. Even though food companies are prepared, shortages will likely be seen at US supermarkets, and or buying limitations will be placed on items.

Walmart Reverses: Puts Guns/Ammo Back On Store Shelves - Having signaled their virtue (and scared half the population), WalMart has decided to reverse its decision and has decided Friday to begin returning firearms and ammunition to the sales floors of its U.S. stores after removing the products earlier in the week out of an abundance of caution following civil unrest.  “After civil unrest earlier this week resulted in damage to several of our stores, consistent with actions we took over the summer, we asked stores to move firearms and ammunition from the sales floor to a secure location in the back of the store in an abundance of caution. As the current incidents have remained geographically isolated, we have made the decision to begin returning these products to the sales floor today.” Perhaps they were just worried about the looting after all.

October Vehicle Sales Forecast: Unchanged Year-over-year - From Wards: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales & Inventory Forecast, October 2020 (pay content)  This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for October (Red). Sales have bounced back from the April low, and will likely be unchanged year-over-year in October. The Wards forecast of 16.8 million SAAR, would be up about 3% from September. This would put sales in 2020, through October, down about 17% compared to the same period in 2019.

Orders for Durable Goods Rose 1.9% in September - New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $4.3 billion or 1.9% to $237.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced. This increase, up five consecutive months, followed a 0.4% August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.4%. Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $3.0 billion or 4.1% to $76.8 billion.Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up four of the last five months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.3% to $245.0 billion. This followed a 0.3% August decrease. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5% to $82.0 billion. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down six of the last seven months, decreased $2.6 billion or 0.2% to $1,075.7 billion. This followed a 0.6% August decrease. Transportation equipment, down seven consecutive months, drove the decrease, $5.2 billion or 0.7% to $722.0 billion.

Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 1.9% in September - The Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders released today gives us a first look at the latest durable goods numbers. Here is the Bureau's summary on new orders:New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $232.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four consecutive months, followed an 11.7 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Machinery, also up four consecutive months, led the increase, $0.5 billion or 1.5 percent to $31.2 billion. Download full PDFThe latest new orders number at 1.9% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 0.5% estimate. The series is down 1.9% year-over-year (YoY). Ifwe exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.8% MoM, which was better than the Investing.com consensus of 0.4%. The core measure is up 1.7% YoY.If we exclude both transportation and defense for an even more fundamental "core", the latest number is up 3.0% MoM and up 5.4% YoY.  Core Capital Goods New Orders (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is an important gauge of business spending, often referred to as Core Capex. It is up 1.0% MoM and up 4.5% YoY. For a look at the big picture and an understanding of the relative size of the major components, here is an area chart of Durable Goods New Orders minus Transportation and Defense with those two components stacked on top. We've also included a dotted line to show the relative size of Core Capex.

October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Shows Expansion -- This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for October. The latest general business activity index came in at 19.8, up 6.2 from 13.6 in September. All figures are seasonally adjusted.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:Texas factory activity expanded in October for the fifth month in a row following a record contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose three points to 25.5, indicating a slight acceleration in output growth.Other measures of manufacturing activity also point to stronger growth this month. The new orders index advanced five points to 19.9, and the growth rate of orders index inched up to 14.3. The capacity utilization index rose from 17.5 to 23.0, while the shipments index was largely unchanged at 21.9.Expectations regarding future activity remained positive in October. The future production index held steady at 47.2, and the future general business activity index was unchanged at 28.4. Other measures of future manufacturing activity showed mixed movements but remained solidly in positive territory. Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator. The Dallas Fed on the TMOS importance: Texas is important to the nation’s manufacturing output. The state produced $159 billion in manufactured goods in 2008, roughly 9.5 percent of the country’s manufacturing output. Texas ranks second behind California in factory production and first as an exporter of manufactured goods.

Richmond Fed: "Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in October" -Earlier from the Richmond Fed: Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in October Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in October, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from 21 in September to 29 in October, its highest reading on record, buoyed by increases in the shipments and new orders indexes, while the third component—the employment index—was unchanged. Firms reported improving business conditions and growing backlogs of orders, overall. Manufacturers were optimistic that conditions would continue to improve in the coming months.Survey results indicated that many manufacturers continued to increase employment and wages in October. This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for October. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Note: October Employment Report Will Show a Decrease of 147,000 Temporary Census Workers --The Census Bureau released an update today on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers: As of the September reference week, there were 246,801 decennial Census temporary workers. As of the October reference week, October 11th - 17th, there were 99,490 temp workers.  That is a decrease of 147,311 temporary jobs.  In August, the employment report showed a gain of 238,000 temporary 2020 Census workers, boosting the headline number. In September, the employment report showed a decrease of 41,000 temporary 2020 Census workers, reducing the headline number. The October employment report will show a 147,311 decrease in temporary Census employment.

 Delta adds hundreds of passengers to no-fly list over mask policy violations | TheHill -The CEO of Delta Airlines reportedly revealed in a memo to employees that the carrier has added 460 people to its no-fly list for not wearing masks during flights.“Throughout the pandemic, we have focused our efforts on protecting our people, our customers and our communities,” Ed Bastian said in the memo, according to ABC News.“Wearing a mask is among the simplest and most effective actions we can take to reduce transmission, which is why Delta has long required them for our customers and our people,” he added. "As of this week, we’ve added 460 people to our no-fly list for refusing to comply with our mask requirement."Bastian reportedly alluded to rising COVID-19 cases across the country as further justification for the move. In August, a Delta plane returned to its gate when two passengers refused to wear masks. The passengers were removed from the plane. ABC News notes other recent incidents related to mask usage have resulted in flight delays and flight attendants being assaulted when requesting passengers comply with company policies. The airline industry has been hit particularly hard by the coronavirus pandemic. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby predicted earlier this month that airlines would not fully return to pre-pandemic levels of activity until 2024. In early October, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) called on airlines to hold off on furloughs, saying a relief bill would soon come with provisions made for airline workers.

San Francisco pauses planned reopenings after increase in cases, hospitalizations - San Francisco will pause its planned reopenings, which included greater capacity for indoor dining at restaurants and movie theaters, as Covid-19 cases continue to surge across the U.S., Mayor London Breed said. "We're beginning to see an increase in cases [and] hospitalizations. While this is not cause to move backward, we are going to pause some of the reopening scheduled for Nov 3," Breed said in a tweet. The city will not reopen its indoor pools, bowling alleys, and locker rooms and showers at gyms as originally planned, Breed said. Instead of reopening at increased capacity, indoor restaurants, movie theaters, museums, zoos, aquariums and places of worship will stay at 25%, she said.

 Despite COVID-19 spike, few individual behaviors are changing | Ipsos - Against the backdrop of a new daily high for COVID-19 cases in the U.S., the latest Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index finds that most behaviors around mask usage, dining in at restaurants, and visiting family and friends have held remarkably constant. There are signs that some may adapt their holiday plans, though, as traveling for the holidays is seen by a majority as risky behavior.

1. As concerns over the coronavirus remain high, there are few signs of individual behaviors changing.

• The number of Americans that have visited friends or relatives (49%), gone out to eat (42%), and self-quarantined (14%) is stable compared to the past few weeks.
• The same is true for Americans wearing masks (66%) or gloves (4%) at all times when leaving the home.
• With cases on the rise, slightly fewer say they are maintaining a distance of at least 6 feet from all people (47%, at all times) or have socially distanced (69%), compared to last week. However, these numbers are still in line with the overall trend and have not moved significantly week-to-week.
• A majority of Americans remain extremely or very concerned about the coronavirus, and about the possibility of cases rising in their area this fall and winter. However, there continues to be a significant difference in levels of concern by party affiliation.

2. Concerns are emerging about the holiday season, with some making adaptations to how they celebrate.

• Two-thirds say traveling for the upcoming holidays poses a large or moderate risk.
• More than half of Americans (54%) have begun to make plans about how they will celebrate the holiday season. More say they plan to celebrate at home with immediate family (30%) compared to those who plan to see family and friends like they normally do (18%).

3. A majority believe the federal government is making the country’s recovery from the pandemic worse, and a plurality say the government has gotten worse over time at handling the pandemic.

• Sixty-two percent believe the government is making America’s recovery worse, including more than one in three (35%) who say the government is making things much worse. This is similar to views held at the end of August, when 60% said the federal government was making things worse.
• When asked whether the federal government has gotten better or worse at handling the pandemic, compared to March or April, a plurality (46%) say worse. Just a quarter (26%) say the federal government has gotten better at handling things.
• Compared to all other entities, the federal government is the only one where Americans think they are worse at handling the pandemic now than in March or April. More say their local government, the CDC, their employer, and businesses in their area have all gotten better at handling the pandemic over time. Americans are evenly split when it comes to their state government (35% better, 32% worse).

Don’t Look Down! Estimating the Depth of State Covid Budget Holes -  Yves Smith - Today, the Journal probes another looming disaster stemming from the reluctance of either party to step up and spend enough, in this case, to salvage state and municipal budgets. Finger-pointing at the Republicans for their refusal, in the recent failed rescue talks, to include funding for state and local governments doesn’t properly apportion blame. A stimulus package, even if it denied additional funding to these bodies, would have still given them some help by boosting the incomes of citizens and businesses. That would have meant higher sales and income tax revenues than in the “no stimulus till at best March” mess we are in now. Remember that state and local governments have already cut headcounts. That’s only going to continue as the budget black holes get larger. Lower employment doesn’t just mean reduced services; it’s another part of the deflationary downdraft, since the lost incomes and spending of those government workers intensifies the funding stress. The ugly overview, from the Journal:Nationwide, the U.S. state budget shortfall from 2020 through 2022 could amount to about $434 billion, according to data from Moody’s Analytics, the economic analysis arm of Moody’s Corp. The estimates assume no additional fiscal stimulus from Washington, further coronavirus-fueled restrictions on business and travel, and extra costs for Medicaid amid high unemployment.That’s greater than the 2019 K-12 education budget for every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state roads and other transportation infrastructure, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers. States have established “rainy day” funds so they can ride out revenue shortfalls, since most are not allowed to borrow for general budget needs. However, these reserves were never envisages as needing to contend with a Covid-level deluge. And on top of that, some states hadn’t fully replenished them after dipping into them after the financial crisis. Again from the Journal:States are dependent on taxes for revenue—sales and income taxes make up more than 60% of the revenue states collect for general operating funds, according to the Urban Institute. Both types of taxes have been crushed by historic job losses and the steepest decline in consumer spending in six decades….States that earn big chunks of their revenue from hard-hit industries are hurting. Americans are commuting and traveling far less, and oil prices have tumbled, hitting energy industries in Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska. Tourism has dropped in Florida, Nevada and Hawaii, and casino closures hurt Rhode Island, New York and Illinois.Hawaii, for example, is expecting fewer than half the visitors it took in last year in 2020, and state officials forecast its general fund revenues won’t recover to pre-pandemic levels until its 2025 fiscal year….A nationwide decline in combined state revenue has happened after only two events in 90 years: following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.Annual state revenue fell following the Sept. 11 attacks and the bursting of the dot-com bubble around that time, but recovered within a year. During the recession that followed the 2008 crisis, state government revenue fell 9% over two years, according to Census Bureau data.This time the shortfall could reach 13% over two years, according to Moody’s Analytics projections. You can see how many states are in bad shape even after applying their full reserves to try to achieve 2019 revenue levels: The Journal doesn’t say what Moody’s assumptions about Covid are, but an aside about “the recent uptick in Covid cases” suggests that the rating agency built in a winter increase but not much more. So lockdowns and/or Covid restrictions extending well into 2021 do not seem to be part of the baseline scenario. That means the downside could be considerably worse than Moody’s anticipates now.

 Activist with ties to Ohio Republican legislators plotted to kidnap and kill Governor Mike DeWine - Local newspapers in Ohio have exposed a plot led by Republican activist Renea Turner to build a “posse” to kidnap and murder the state’s governor, Mike DeWine. Though DeWine is a Republican and a Trump supporter, he was evidently targeted for implementing mild restrictions to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed over 5,100 Ohioans. Turner confirmed in a Friday interview with Cleveland.com that she was trying to recruit people to place the governor under “house arrest.” The plan was revealed when an individual she attempted to recruit filed a police report last week. State police then visited Turner but did not make an arrest. As of this writing, not a single national news publication had reported the Ohio developments. Though it is not known how far advanced this particular plot was or how many people were involved, it comes just over two weeks after federal officials arrested over a dozen fascists who planned to kidnap and kill Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and also discussed targeting Virginia Governor Ralph Northam. Trump has made no secret of his plans to mobilize far-right supporters to invalidate the popular vote and attempt to remain in office. This strategy is focused particularly on battleground states like Ohio and Michigan. Turner is a Trump supporter who has connections to a group of Republican state legislators who have been calling for DeWine to be arrested for the damage to business interests caused by statewide lockdown measures. State Representative John Becker, one of this group, told the Dayton Daily News on Friday that he personally met with Turner two weeks ago. In a short video responding to the revelations, Becker said Turner was building a “posse” whose plan was to “arrest the governor at his home, put him on trial for tyranny and with the potential for that being either execution or exile.”

Joliet Police Sergeant Who Alleged Police Misconduct In Death Of Eric Lurry Has Been Arrested – CBS Chicago— A Joliet police sergeant who went public with allegations of police misconduct in the death of a suspect has been arrested, CBS 2 Investigator Dave Savini has learned.Sgt. Javier Esqueda was charged with two counts of official misconduct and was booked at the Kendall County Jail. Bond was set at $5,000 and Esqueda walked out of the facility on Wednesday afternoon.  The felony charges mean the Esqueda could fave five years in prison if he is found guilty.“I want justice for Eric Lurry,” Esqueda said on Wednesday. “I want officers in the country to come out and tell the truth.”“Something like this should not be happening if you are telling the truth.”Esqueda, 51, blew the whistle on the death of Lurry and had been stripped of his police powers and placed on administrative leave. Joliet police withheld the video of the arrest for five months.  He believes the police department was trying to cover up the arrest. “Yes, I do, 100 percent,” Esqueda told Savini this summer. “I did the right thing, I am a good honest cop.”There are calls to fire the two officers involved in Lurry’s death.Police Chief Alan Roechner said Esqueda’s “unauthorized access to video evidence that was involved in a criminal investigation” is what ultimately led to him being placed on administrative duty. In one video clip Sgt. Doug May slapped Lurry, called him a “bitch” then pinched his nose shut. The video also shows police hitting Lurry while he was in handcuffs and putting police baton into his mouth.

 Hunger and social misery soar in Washington D.C. during the pandemic -As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to cut a path of sickness through the population, numerous studies and investigations have revealed the growth of a far more pervasive and silent killer stalking the United States: hunger.According to a report published last month by the Food Research and Action Center (FRAC), the number of people in the US experiencing a persistent lack of food sometimes or often climbed above 29 million people in July. This number represents nearly 11 percent of the US population. This is a near quadrupling of the number of such people in 2018, when 8 million adults were in this category.The report states that in 38 states and the District of Columbia, 1 in 10 adults with child dependants find themselves without enough food to feed themselves and their family on a regular basis.“Food need is being driven by unemployment, particularly in service industries, e.g., Uber drivers, childcare workers, hospitality industry, including hotels and restaurants, home health care and school services,” a representative of the Falls Church Community Services Council in Northern Virginia told the World Socialist Web Site in an email. “Our recent clients now include people who were managing before the pandemic, but now can no longer afford rent, utilities and food.”Falls Church, located in the near-suburbs of Washington D.C., was named the wealthiest county in the United States, with a median income of $113,000 per household, its wealth largely attributable to the number of federal contractors stationed nearby. Last month, a report in the local ABC News affiliate WJLA noted that the Capital Area Food Bank, a supplier to over 450 charity organizations and groups in the area, found a nearly 300 percent surge in demand for its services. When contacted, Amanda Rogers, Communications Director for the Fairfax County Neighborhood and Community Services office, reported a surge of “residents who have never called or had a case open with CSP [Coordinated Services Planning] before.” This was nearly four times more than the average monthly new caller rate in fiscal year 2019. While the need is dire, the pandemic has restricted the ability of local charities to respond. According to the WJLA report, out of nearly 150 food banks in the D.C. area that partner with the Capital Area Food Bank, “only 45 are operational.”The Falls Church Community Services Council reported “a lack of volunteers willing to risk illness while making sure people get food.” This is especially noticeable as “the core of many food pantries’ volunteer bases are in the most vulnerable age group” for COVID-19. In addition to this, “Many stores [in spring] had placed limits on purchases of food as well as paper goods and cleaning supplies which some pantries provide.”In other words, a complete breakdown has occurred throughout charitable networks, affecting everything from personnel to supplies.

Texas 3-year-old fatally shoots self in chest at birthday party --A 3-year-old boy in Texas died on Saturday after finding a loaded gun that fell out of a family member's pocket and accidentally shooting himself in the chest, authorities said. The Montgomery County Sheriff's Office said in a press release that deputies responded to a 911 call for a welfare check in Porter, Texas, and found the child with a gunshot wound. The unnamed boy later died. Authorities said family members had gathered for the child's birthday party and were playing cards when they heard a gunshot and discovered the child. "The child was rushed to a nearest fire station where he succumbed to his wounds," according to the news release. It wasn't immediately clear if an investigation would be launched over the shooting, or whether the unnamed family member who was in possession of the firearm would face charges.

 US Marshals Find 45 Missing Children In Massive Human Trafficking Sting -A massive law enforcement operation in Ohio called Operation Autumn Hope has resulted in the arrest of 179 people under suspicion of human trafficking, and the rescue of 109 victims, 45 of whom were missing children. Some victims were as young as 14 or 15 years old. The victims were referred to social services, according to the Ohio Attorney General’s Office.Over 50 law enforcement agencies took part in the operation, which allowed officers to make arrests and rescues in different counties.In a three-day sting, Columbus police focused on the west side, Linden, Sullivant, and Parsons Avenues looking for victims of human trafficking. Undercover officers worked with uniformed officers who would make the arrests, according to 10TV. One arrest and rescue was even conducted during a traffic stop in nearby West Virginia. Peter Tobin, U.S. Marshal for the Southern District of Ohio thanked all the officers who helped out with the operation, and confidently said that their actions have made a difference in a lot of lives. Sgt. Dana Hess, director of the Central Ohio Human Trafficking Task Force, said that this operation highlights how many victims are out there. “These vulnerable members of our population usually slip through the cracks. This operation highlighted the vast number of potential victims and allowed law enforcement the opportunity to make contact and link them to services,” Hess said. Over the past five years, the US Marshal Service (USMS) has recovered missing children in 75% of the cases it has received. And of those recovered, 72% were recovered within 7 days. Since 2005, the USMS has recovered more than 2,000 missing children. The Justice for Victims of Trafficking Act of 2015 enhanced the U.S. Marshals’ authority to assist federal, state and local law enforcement with the recovery of missing, endangered or abducted children, regardless of whether a fugitive or sex offender was involved. The Marshals established a Missing Child Unit to oversee and manage the implementation of its enhanced authority under the act.

 12-year-old boy threatened with arrest after missing 90 minutes of Zoom class, Bay Area dad says - (KGO) -- A parent in the East Bay city says a letter he received from his son's middle school, threatening the boy's arrest for missing less than two hours of Zoom class, is total overkill. The school principal told ABC7 News, her administration had no choice but to send the letter, given new state guidelines around keeping better track of attendance as California public schools continue with mostly virtual learning. "This is our fourth child going through this middle school and out of the blue, we got a letter," explained Lafayette parent Mark Mastrov.  Mastrov received the letter after his seventh-grader missed exactly three 30-minute Zoom sessions, one day last month."He can become a truant of the state and he could be arrested," explained Mastrov, who said he immediately called an administrator at Stanley Middle School. "I said, 'Are you going to come and try to arrest my son at my home, or fine me for not getting him to his Zoom class perfectly, on time everyday?'"Like his classmates at Stanley, Merek Mastrov spends up to seven hours a day attending virtual school via Zoom. It's been more than a month since public school districts in the Bay Area opted to return to online classes and educators and parents are starting to recognize the negative consequences of distance learning.The letter from a Stanley administrator lists the three periods Merek missed and says, "When a student is absent without a valid excuse, the student is considered truant according to California law."And down below, the letter lists six possible consequences, including:"The pupil may be subject to arrest under Education Code Section 48264."The principal at Stanley Middle School told us the letter is the result of new state guidelines passed this past summer, CA Senate Bill 98, which requires districts to keep a closer eye on student attendance.Reached by phone, Principal Betsy Balmat told us, "The letter is part of our responsibility to the state for our student attendance review boards. As always, the schools have a responsibility to ensure students are engaged and learning."

Most Parents Worry Students Will Fall Behind Due to Coronavirus, Survey Finds | Education News -- MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS OF parents of students who receive at least some online instruction are concerned about their children falling behind in school.A Pew Research Center survey found that 32% of parents are very concerned and 36% of parents are somewhat concerned that their children will fall behind in school as a result of any disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.While parents of children learning at least partially online are concerned, so are parents of children learning in-person only. About one-third, 34%, are somewhat concerned, compared to 21% who are very concerned about their children falling behind in school because of the pandemic.While schools across the country continue to decide the best way to educate students and whether to open schools in person, a majority of parents of students are satisfied with the way their children's school has handled instruction so far this school year, whether in person or a mix of both.Fifty-four percent of parents of children receiving in-person only instruction are very satisfied and 36% are somewhat satisfied with the way schools have handled the situation. For parents of children receiving a combination of in-person and online education, 29% are very satisfied and 47% are somewhat satisfied.Despite the possibility of exposure to coronavirus in-person education poses, most parents of children receiving it are satisfied with steps schools have taken to prevent the spread of COVID-19, with 86% either very or somewhat satisfied.However, some parents are still worried about their children being exposed to the virus at school, with 20% saying they are very concerned and 42% saying they are somewhat concerned.

 Twenty-nine outbreaks reported in K-12 schools as COVID-19 rips through Michigan - The spread of COVID-19 through Michigan’s K-12 schools is rapidly accelerating, with the number of new outbreaks rising for the third week in a row, according to data released by the state yesterday. Last week, there were 29 separate outbreaks affecting 107 students, teachers and school workers, making it the most infectious week in Michigan since the school year began. The 29 new outbreaks last week are in addition to 70 other “ongoing” outbreaks, defined as outbreaks that have been reported more than a week ago, but which have at least one new associated case in the last 28 days. Altogether, the 99 total ongoing outbreaks have led to 482 reported cases of COVID-19 among students, teachers and staff. Family members and other community members not employed by schools are not counted. It must also be pointed out that Michigan defines an “outbreak” at school as “two (2) or more COVID-19 cases who may have shared exposure on school grounds and are from different households.” When only one case is discovered, the state does not report it as an outbreak or include it in school totals, thereby undercounting the spread of the pandemic and withholding vital knowledge of COVID-19 cases from parents, students and teachers.  For example, one student at Woodhaven High School in Brownstown, Michigan, was reported by the school district last week to have COVID-19, sending at least 30 teachers, students and staff into quarantine. The figures are published on the district’s website, but no outbreak will be recorded by the State of Michigan.  The 107 people infected in outbreaks at Michigan’s K-12 schools last week include 18 at preschools and elementary schools, another 18 at middle schools, and 71 at high schools. In their reporting of cases, the state does not say whether those infected are staff, students or teachers. The reported outbreaks took place in schools throughout the state, indicating the entrenched character of the pandemic, which has now spread to more rural areas. The largest outbreak last week has infected 10 people at Breitung Township Schools in Dickinson County, located in Michigan’s rural Upper Peninsula. The UP overall has been hit hard, with further outbreaks at schools in Gogebic, Houghton, and Marquette counties. The state’s Western counties were badly hit, especially Ottawa, with three separate outbreaks, as were Kent, Van Buren, and Allegan, with two outbreaks each. The county with the highest number of outbreaks in schools last week was Macomb County, in Metro Detroit, with four schools reporting outbreaks. Since reporting began in mid-September, 132 separate outbreaks have been reported at K-12 schools in Michigan, and the rate of spread is accelerating. Since the beginning of October, the weekly rate of outbreaks in the state’s schools has risen steadily from 18 per week to 29 per week at present.

 New York City workers and students reject school reopenings through mass absenteeism The massive opposition of New York City parents and students to Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio’s school reopening plan has found expression in high rates of absenteeism throughout the largest school district in the United States. According to newly released attendance data, only 26 percent of the city’s 1.1 million public school students are attending in-person classes. This figure represents a significant drop from the estimated 500,000 families the city Department of Education (DOE) officially counts as participating in its so-called “blended learning” models. These models bring students into school buildings between one and three days a week and are highly unsafe, exposing hundreds of thousands to possible infection from COVID-19. This mass absenteeism does not represent an organized movement. Rather, it reflects the spontaneous repudiation by the vast majority of working class families with school-aged children of the fraudulent claim advanced by city Democrats, and supported by the United Federation of Teachers (UFT), that schools can safely reopen with in-person classes in the midst of a pandemic. Even if one were to solely consider the 26 percent of students that are actually attending in-person classes along with the teaching staff currently reporting to school buildings, the 16,000 people currently receiving weekly tests in schools would only account for five percent of the in-person school population, well below the 10-20 percent to which the city committed. Additionally, the low positivity rate data within city schools recently touted by the Mayor omits nearly 400 DOE staff and students that tested positive before limited weekly testing began on October 9. Noemi Peña, a parent of a public school student, told the New York Times, “Parents in NYC voted and spoke with their feet.” This assessment coincides with descriptions by city educators of school buildings as “ghost towns,” particularly at middle and high schools. Despite confronting mass opposition from educators, parents and students, de Blasio has doubled down on his efforts to cast New York City as a model for other large urban districts throughout the country to reopen with in-person classes. Commenting Monday on the low numbers of students showing up to school buildings, de Blasio stated, “A lot more kids could be attending in person and we want to make sure that their families know.”

 18-year-old freshman at University of Dayton apparently dies from Covid-19 - An 18-year-old freshman at the University of Dayton in Ohio died Thursday “apparently due to complications from" coronavirus, school officials said. Michael Lang, a first-year student in the College of Arts and Sciences, died in LaGrange, Illinois, after a long hospitalization, the university said. It was not clear how long Lang had been hospitalized or whether he contracted the virus on or off campus. Lang was living on-campus before returning to his hometown and switching to remote learning on Sep. 13, the university said. Since students returned to campus on Aug. 8, the University of Dayton has seen spikes and declines in Covid-19 cases, forcing students to move between classroom and online instruction, the Chronicle of Higher Education reported. According to the University of Dayton’s Covid-19 dashboard, which has tracked Covid-19 cases since Aug. 10, the school reported 34 active people with the virus and a total of 1,417 cases, as of Monday morning. Lang isn’t the first college student to die from Covid-19 or related complications. Earlier in September, 20-year-old football player Jamain Stephens Jr. at California University of Pennsylvania passed away from Covid-19 complications, NBC Washington reported. And late last month, NBC News reported that Chad Dorill, a “healthy” sophomore at Appalachian State University died from coronavirus at age 19.

 Hospitals brace for more cyberattacks as coronavirus cases rise - Hospitals brace for more cyberattacks as coronavirus cases rise © The Hill illustration/Madeline Monroe Hospitals and health care institutions preparing for a fall wave of coronavirus cases are bracing for more cyberattacks after hackers seeking to take advantage of the pandemic launched several successful attacks this year that severely disrupted patient services. The attacks have been widespread around the world, hitting health care groups during the worst public health crisis in a century. Experts say the attacks have involved both cyber criminal groups and nation states looking to target COVID-19 research and sow chaos. “I’ve been describing this as a cyber gold rush, the bad guys of all shapes and sizes recognize that there is an opportunity here,” said Marc Rogers, executive director of cybersecurity at software group Okta who also helps lead the COVID-19 CTI League that tracks cyberattacks against health groups. The organization is made up of around 1,500 professionals in more than 80 countries from sectors including information technology, telecommunications and law enforcement who have volunteered their time to fight cyberattacks and track threats against health care groups and other critical sectors. “We see everything from emails that have no payload at all, through to complex new malware that has been specifically compiled to go after that target at that time,” Rogers said. Hackers have targeted governmental organizations such as the World Health Organization and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), as well as specific hospital chains. Other state-sponsored attacks backed by Russia, China and Iran have gone after groups involved in COVID-19 research. A recent attack on Pennsylvania-based hospital chain Universal Health Services (UHS) temporarily disabled systems in hundreds of hospitals in the U.S., potentially delaying treatment and possibly exposing the data of millions of customers. Some of the cyber incidents during the pandemic have been deadly, with a ransomware attack on a German hospital in September being linked to a woman’s death after the hospital was forced to turn away emergency patients due to its servers crashing. “There are hundreds of cases we have now seen where we can draw a direct line between the cyberattack and deaths,” said André Pienaar, whose firm helped form the Cyber Alliance to Defend Our Healthcare, a group of nearly 40 major cybersecurity companies that defend health organizations. Rogers, who helps lead the CTI League, told The Hill that around 51 percent of cyberattacks targeting health groups and other critical sectors during the pandemic have originated in the U.S. or Europe, but many are part of global campaigns that have infrastructure worldwide, making them difficult to track.

COVID-19 antibodies see drop in months following infection: study  Coronavirus antibodies dropped by nearly 26 percent in the three months following infection, according to a new REACT2 study.The research, published on Tuesday, surveyed a total of nearly 365,000 British adults from June through September. Almost 17,500 people in that group who tested positive for COVID-19 showed a decline in the presence of antibodies across all age groups.“We know seasonal colds can reinfect people every six months,” Wendy Barclay, head of the infectious disease department at Imperial College London, told Politico, noting that the coronavirus appears to follow a similar trend.  Rates at which the antibodies decreased over time varied, according to Politico. Cases in which the infected person was asymptomatic showed a rapid drop, while younger people had high levels of antibodies and a slower decline and older people had lower levels of antibodies from the beginning. “We don’t yet know what level of antibody is needed in a person’s blood to prevent reinfection,” Barclay said. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) backtracked on earlier guidance that said the coronavirus had a three-month window of immunity following infection.  "People can continue to test positive for up to 3 months after diagnosis and not be infectious to others. Contrary to media reporting today, this science does not imply a person is immune to reinfection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in the 3 months following infection,” the CDC said in a press release in August. Despite this, German virologist Christian Drosten believes that antigen testing could still be useful in combating COVID-19. "We could develop a working hypothesis in public health,” he said, according to Politico. “A negative result of [an] antigen test predicts a waning of infectability in a patient.”

NIH halts study of Eli Lilly antibody drug for treating hospitalized COVID-19 patients - Federal researchers have ended a study into the effectiveness of Eli Lilly's antibody treatment for hospitalized COVID-19 patients due to a lack of effectiveness. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), which is funding the study, announced late Monday that an independent monitoring board found little clinical benefit in the treatment and recommended that it be stopped. The study had been paused earlier this month due to a potential safety issue, but the NIAID said the monitoring board's decision was driven by lack of clinical benefit. The study was designed to evaluate Eli Lilly’s neutralizing antibody as a treatment for COVID-19 in hospitalized patients in combination with the antiviral drug remdesivir. It was being tested against a combination of remdesivir and a placebo. The agency said the larger trial will continue to study other experimental therapies compared to placebos in adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Eli Lilly said it will also continue testing its antibody drug in patients with mild to moderate cases, in people recently diagnosed with COVID-19 and as a way to prevent COVID-19 in residents and staff at long-term care facilities. The decision to end the study is not likely to impact the Food and Drug Administration's review of Eli Lilly's application for an emergency use authorization of the antibody drug, which was based on evidence it improved the condition of recently diagnosed high-risk patients with mild to moderate COVID-19. Monoclonal antibodies are lab-generated versions of one of the human body's main defenses against pathogens. AstraZeneca and Regeneron, among other companies, are also working on antibody treatments. The use of antibodies to treat COVID-19 made headlines recently after President Trump said he received an antibody cocktail from Regeneron and touted it as a "miracle" and a "cure." Trump ally and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) also said he was treated with Eli Lilly's antibody drug, along with remdesivir.

 Medical Xpress: Study finds over 80% of COVID-19 patients have vitamin D deficiency. Over 80 percent of 200 COVID-19 patients in a hospital in Spain have vitamin D deficiency, according to a new study published in the Endocrine Society's Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism. Vitamin D is a hormone the kidneys produce that controls blood calcium concentration and impacts the immune system. Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to a variety of health concerns, although research is still underway into why the hormone impacts other systems of the body. Many studies point to the beneficial effect of vitamin D on the immune system, especially regarding protection against infections. "One approach is to identify and treat vitamin D deficiency, especially in high-risk individuals such as the elderly, patients with comorbidities, and nursing home residents, who are the main target population for the COVID-19," said study co-author José L. Hernández, Ph.D., of the University of Cantabria in Santander, Spain. "Vitamin D treatment should be recommended in COVID-19 patients with low levels of vitamin D circulating in the blood since this approach might have beneficial effects in both the musculoskeletal and the immune system." The researchers found 80 percent of 216 COVID-19 patients at the Hospital Universitario Marqués de Valdecilla had vitamin D deficiency, and men had lower vitamin D levels than women. COVID-19 patients with lower vitamin D levels also had raised serum levels of inflammatory markers such as ferritin and D-dimer.

Some COVID-19 "long haulers" experience lasting skin problems - -  - Some patients with COVID-19 have persistent skin-related symptoms long after their initial infection has cleared, according to a new analysis. The findings point to another burden experienced by so-called "long haulers" who get better but don't seem to fully recover from COVID-19. For the analysis, researchers established an international registry for COVID-19 skin manifestations in April 2020, in collaboration with the International League of Dermatological Societies and the American Academy of Dermatology. Clinicians were contacted in June and August to update COVID-19 laboratory test results and the duration of patients' COVID-19 skin symptoms. The team defined long haulers as anyone with skin symptoms of COVID-19 that persisted for at least 60 days.The team evaluated almost 1,000 cases of patients with skin manifestations of COVID-19. Among 224 total suspected cases and 90 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 39 countries with information on symptom duration, the median duration of symptoms was 12 days. Rash-like morbilliform and urticarial eruptions lasted a median of seven days and four days, respectively, for patients with lab-confirmed COVID-19, with a maximum duration of 28 days. Papulosquamous eruptions, which are scaly papules and plaques, lasted a median of 20 days in lab-confirmed cases, with one confirmed long hauler eruption lasting 70 days. Pernio/chilblains, or redness and swelling of the feet and hands, commonly known as "COVID toes," lasted a median of 15 days in patients with suspected COVID-19 and 10 days in lab-confirmed cases. Notably, six patients with pernio/chilblains were long haulers with toe symptoms lasting at least 60 days, with two lab-confirmed patients with COVID toes lasting longer than 130 days."Our findings reveal a previously unreported subset of patients with long-standing skin symptoms from COVID-19, in particular those with COVID toes. This data adds to our knowledge about the long-term effects of COVID-19 in different organ systems. The skin is potentially a visible window into inflammation that could be going on in the body," said senior author Esther E. Freeman, MD, PhD, director of Global Health Dermatology at MGH. "We encourage clinicians taking care of patients with COVID-19 to ask about and evaluate any skin symptoms. Health care providers can enter information into our registry to further our understanding of the dermatologic effects of COVID-19."

Close to 17 percent of patients recovered from COVID-19 could still carry virus- --A new study in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, published by Elsevier, presents new data that address important questions pertaining to the containment of the coronavirus pandemic: When should COVID-19 quarantine really end and which continuing symptoms may be more indicative of a positive test in recovered patients?The study was conducted by the Fondazione Policlinico Universitario "Agostino Gemelli" IRCCS, Rome, Italy, where a multidisciplinary healthcare service was established for all patients who have recovered from COVID-19 to study what happens to them after recovery and to assess the impact of the virus on their bodies.Investigators report that close to 17 percent of patients considered fully recovered from COVID-19 tested positive for the virus in follow-up screening. Patients who continued to have respiratory symptoms, especially sore throat and rhinitis, were more likely to have a new positive test result. This suggests the persistence of these two symptoms should not be underestimated and should be adequately assessed in all patients considered recovered from COVID-19."Clinicians and researchers have focused on the acute phase of COVID-19, but continued monitoring after discharge for long-lasting effects is needed," explained lead investigator Francesco Landi, MD, PhD, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario "Agostino Gemelli" IRCCS, and Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy.

Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection' – BBC -- Levels of protective antibodies in people wane "quite rapidly" after coronavirus infection, say researchers. Antibodies are a key part of our immune defences and stop the virus from getting inside the body's cells. The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September. They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times. The news comes as figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK rose by 60% in the week of 16 October. The ONS figures suggest there have now been more than 60,000 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK. More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far. In the first round of testing, at the end of June and the beginning of July, about 60 in 1,000 people had detectable antibodies. But in the latest set of tests, in September, only 44 per 1,000 people were positive. It suggests the number of people with antibodies fell by more than a quarter between summer and autumn. "Immunity is waning quite rapidly, we're only three months after our first [round of tests] and we're already showing a 26% decline in antibodies," said Prof Helen Ward, one of the researchers. The fall was greater in those over 65, compared with younger age groups, and in those without symptoms compared with those with full-blown Covid-19. The number of healthcare workers with antibodies remained relatively high, which the researchers suggest may be due to regular exposure to the virus. Antibodies stick to the surface of the coronavirus to stop it invading our body's cells and attacking the rest of the immune system. Exactly what the antibody drop means for immunity is still uncertain. There are other parts of the immune system, such as T-cells, which may also play a role, directly killing infected host cells and calling to other immune cells to help out. However, the researchers warn antibodies tend to be highly predictive of who is protected. Prof Wendy Barclay said: "We can see the antibodies and we can see them declining and we know antibodies on their own are quite protective. "On the balance of evidence, I would say it would look as if immunity declines away at the same rate as antibodies decline away, and that this is an indication of waning immunity."

Large UK Study Delivers Big Blow to Covid Herd Immunity Thesis, Raises Concerns About Vaccine Strategies --Yves Smith --From early on, we’ve raised concerns about how much protection the much-awaited Covid vaccine would provide, since contracting the other common coronaviruses confers only limited immunity: on the short end, about six months for the common cold and on the long, 34 months for MERS.A new large-sacle study in the UK confirms these worries. Tests of over 350,000 people determined that the percentage with Covid antibodies has fallen in the last few months, which is alarmingly at odds with the fact that more people cumulatively have contracted the disease over time. The falloff in antibody levels is similar to that of the common cold, meaning consistent with being infected producing only short-term immunity. Needless to say, this result is at odds with the fantasy that merely having enough people get sick would solve the Covid problem eventually.Moreover, the study data also suggests that those who got asymptomatic cases had their antibody levels fall off faster than those who had more serious cases.These results are an early warning that antibody-based vaccines will only offer months of protection. Mind you, antibodies aren’t the only defense that the body mounts against Covid. In fact, some scientists were already warning that the focus by most Covid vaccine developers on antibody responses was misguided, and targeting T-cells was a safer bet. For instance, from Berkeley News last month, summarizing a paper in Vaccine: A better strategy is to take a lesson from one of the world’s best vaccines, the 82-year-old yellow fever vaccine, which stimulates a long-lasting, protective T-cell response. T-cells are immune cells that surveil the body continuously for decades, ready to react quickly if the yellow fever virus is detected again. “We know what really good vaccines look like for viral infections,” Hellerstein said. “While we are doing phase 2 trials, we need to look at the detailed response of T-cells, not just antibodies, and correlate these responses with who does well or not over the next several months. Then, I think, we will have a good sense of the laboratory features of vaccines that work. If we do that, we should be able to pick good ones.” Needless to say, the press reports on the so-called Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission findings from the Imperial College were sober. Some argued that the survey was less than ideal by not repeatedly testing the same individuals, but the results were so marked over a large population that it seems unlikely that the general conclusion is invalid. The researchers tested groups of 100,000 each round, chosen at random, from 314 “local authorities”. The first test period, from June 20 to July 13, found that 6.6% of the subjects had Covid 19 antibodies. The latest test, from September 15 to September 28, showed the level had dropped to 4.4%.

Just Some More Gibberish on Covid - “Of the 10 states with the highest rates of new coronavirus cases per capita according to a White House Coronavirus Task Force report this month, seven do not require residents to wear masks. Seven of 10 reside in the South and the other three are South and North Dakota and Wisconsin. Illinois is the only non-western or southern state in the next 10 states. Huffpost; In North Dakota, which now leads the nation in new coronavirus cases per capita, Republican Gov. Doug Burgum has refused to implement a mask mandate stating he prefers a “light touch of government.” Last week (10/19/20), Fargo became the first city in the state to institute a mask mandate after months of rising infections. Overwhelmed by the increase in cases, state health officials are now asking residents to conduct their own contact tracing if they test positive.”And what about younger people not dying at the same rate as older people? This morning in my email box was a briefing by The Health Care Cost Institute, The Impact of COVID-19 on Years of Life Lost. If you think being under 65 means contracting Covid is the same as catching a bad cold, guess again.“ Summary: Since April, 1.9 million excess years of life have been lost and 13% above historical average. Over the course of the pandemic, we found age and sex contributions to excess YLL have shifted. Deaths among adults 65 and older accounted for 80% of excess YLL in April but only 36% of excess YLL in June. Since April, working age adults 20-64 have accounted for 47% of excess YLL, and males 20 to 64 have contributed 34%.While most COVID deaths are individuals over the age of 65, COVID is also responsible for a significant share of deaths in other age groups. According to the Centers for Disease Control, about10% of all deaths among older adults from February 2020 to August 2020 have been due to COVID-19. In that same period, COVID also caused about 9% of deaths among those ages 45-64 and 5% of deaths among those 25-44 (CDC).The personal, social, and economic impacts of premature death can be difficult to quantify. Excess death rates provide a measure of the current burden of disease but cannot capture the long-term impact that, say, the death of a 40-year old married person with 3 children will have. Years of Life Lost (YLL) is a measure that captures both the immediate tragedy while also providing insight into the longer-term impacts of premature death on families, communities, and the economy. The calculation determines the number of forgone years that could have been spent contributing to society in roles such as spouses, parents, community members, and employees. For example, if a person dies at age 50, and life expectancy at age 50 is more 25 years, then the YLL is 25. In contrast, if a person dies at age 80 and life expectancy at 80 is 2 more years, then YLL is 2.” An aside, if you are wondering why the Social Security Trust Fund has improved; Covid death rate is one clear answer to its improvement. On Tuesday of this week, the US went past 9 million cases contracted. By November 3rd, the US should go past 240,000 deaths.

Masks Are a Distraction From the Pandemic Reality – WSJ -- A hallmark of Covid-19 pandemic policy has been the failure of political leaders and health officials to anticipate the unintended consequences of their actions. This tendency has haunted many decisions, from lockdowns that triggered enormous unemployment and increased alcohol and drug abuse, to school closures that are widening educational disparities between rich and poor families. Mask mandates may also have unintended consequences that outweigh the benefits.The public assumes that research performed since the beginning of the pandemic supports mask mandates. Policy makers and the media point to low-quality evidence, such as a study of Covid-19 positive hairstylists in Missouri or a Georgia summer camp with an outbreak. These anecdotes, while valuable, tell us nothing about the experience of other hairdressers or other summer camps that adopted similar or different masking practices. Also low-quality evidence: Videos of droplets spreading through air as people talk, a well-intended line of research that has stoked fears about regular human interactions. Rather, the highest-quality evidence so far is studies like the one published in June in Health Affairs, which found that U.S. states instituting mask mandates had a 2% reduction in growth rates of Covid-19 compared with states without these mandates. Because respiratory virus spread is exponential, modest reductions can translate into large differences over time. But these shifts in trajectory are distinct from the notion that mandating masks will bring the pandemic to an end. Based on evidence around the world, it should be clear that mask mandates won’t extinguish the virus.The most reasonable conclusion from the available scientific evidence is that community mask mandates have—at most—a small effect on the course of the pandemic. But you wouldn’t know that from watching cable news or sitting next to a mother being forced off an airplane because her small children aren’t able to keep a mask on.While mask-wearing has often been invoked in explanations for rising or falling Covid-19 case counts, the reality is that these trends reflect a basic human need to interact with one another. Claims that low mask compliance is responsible for rising case counts are also not supported by Gallup data, which show that the percentage of Americans reporting wearing masks has been high and relatively stable since June. Health officials and political leaders have assigned mask mandates a gravity unsupported by empirical research.

Utah’s hospitals prepare to ration care as a record number of coronavirus patients flood their ICUs -With new coronavirus cases shattering records on a daily basis, Utah’s hospitals are expected to begin rationing care in a week or two.That’s the prediction of Greg Bell, president of the Utah Hospital Association, who said administrators of the state’s hospitals confronted Gov. Gary Herbert on Thursday with a grim list: Criteria they propose doctors should use if they are forced to decide which patients can stay in overcrowded intensive care units.Under the criteria, which would require Herbert’s approval, patients who are getting worse despite receiving intensive care would be moved out first. In the event that two patients' conditions are equal, the young get priority over the old, since older patients are more likely to die.‘We told him, ‘It looks like we’re going to have to request those be activated if this trend continues,’" Bell recounted, “'and we see no reason why it won’t.'"Hospitalizations normally rise after the number of new cases increases, and Utah repeatedly set new records for daily case totals last week. At least two Utah hospitals have opened overflow ICUsthis month. The state’s hospitals can shift patients around to free up bed space, Bell said, and the state has long planned to open a field hospital at the Mountain America Expo Center in Sandy if necessary. But one of the defining features of intensive care is access to doctors and nurses with specialty training — and opening new beds does not mean those health care workers can staff them. Bell said it’s now all but inevitable that hospitals will need to enact their triage protocols, known as “crisis standards of care.”“I haven’t said, ‘It’s gonna happen’ — until [Thursday] night,” Bell said. “I told the governor, ‘It’s gonna happen. We’re going to be back here asking for crisis standards.’ ”

Utah governor said crowded hospitals ‘should cause us all alarm,’ as state breaks record for new cases --Gov. Gary Herbert warned that as the state experiences record-high coronavirus hospitalizations and case counts continue to climb, the health care system is at or near capacity. “It should cause us all alarm,” Herbert said, warning that “our hospitals are starting to fill up."The Utah Department of Health reported 1,543 new coronavirus cases on Thursday and 301 patients concurrently admitted to hospitals. On average, 296 patients have been receiving treatment in Utah hospitals each day for the past week — a record high. “For the first time as a physician, I’m scared to see what’s to come,” Eddie Stenehjem, infectious disease medical director for Intermountain Healthcare, said during Herbert’s monthly PBS Utah news conference. “I’m scared about the next few months that we will endure here in Utah unless something changes.”More than 700 Utahns have been reported hospitalized for coronavirus in the past two weeks — the highest number of any 14-day stretch since the pandemic began. In total, 4,880 patients have been hospitalized in Utah for COVID-19, an increase of 73 from Wednesday. State epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn said the state’s health care providers are exhausted, the public health system is strained and Utahns are afraid. “I just, I don’t know what to do any more,” Dunn said, shaking her head in exasperation. “I’m really not trying to scare anyone. I’m just trying to inform you of what’s going on and give you the facts of where we are in this pandemic."Stenehjem described hospital floors filled with COVID-19 patients who are suffering and lonely, cut off from the comfort of their family and friends. Many of them won’t survive the disease, he said, and some of those who do will grapple with the chronic conditions that the infection can leave behind.“I wish I could take all of you with me on these rounds,” he told reporters. “These rounds teach you the respect you need for this virus.”

Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota going into lockdown due to COVID-19 (AP) — The Oglala Sioux Tribe is locking down the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation on Friday, in response to a surging number of COVID-19 cases in the state. The lockdown begins at 10 p.m. and lasts until 6 a.m. Oct. 30. During that time, all non-critical travel is barred. The tribe said non-essential businesses should close to the public, and travel to non-essential work to or from the reservation should stop. The lockdown comes as the state surpassed 9,000 active coronavirus cases on Thursday and reported an all-time high of 973 new cases in one day. Thursday’s numbers also matched a record high of 14 deaths in one day.

Texas governor requests use of El Paso-area military hospital for non-COVID-19 patients as cases surge -Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Saturday requested to use a medical center at Fort Bliss for non-COVID-19 patients as coronavirus cases surge in the El Paso area. The request comes as COVID-19 cases have been increasing throughout Texas and the country.Abbott said Saturday that he had spoken to Dr. Robert Kadlec, assistant secretary for preparedness and response at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, to request use of William Beaumont Army Medical Center to free up beds at the region's hospitals, according to CBS El Paso affiliate KDBC-TV.Officials with the University Medical Center of El Paso said Saturday they are working to coordinate airlifting patients requiring critical care to other hospitals in the state. This will be a strictly voluntary decision by the patients and arrangements will be made to bring all patients home to El Paso, KDBC reported.  El Paso officials said 1,216 new COVID-19 cases were reported on Saturday, for a total of 10,911 active cases and 38,554 cumulative cases.El Paso officials said Saturday one person died, a woman in her 40s with underlying health conditions. There have been 572 deaths in El Paso due to COVID-19 since the pandemic began. As of Saturday, there were 715 people hospitalized in El Paso County due to COVID-19, including 199 in intensive care and 85 on ventilators.

New York surpasses half a million COVID-19 cases |- New York has reported more than half a million COVID-19 cases, becoming the fourth state in the U.S. to pass the bleak milestone after California, Florida and Texas.Reuters reported that New York has had 80 percent more cases in the last month than the preceding month and recorded over 2,000 in a single day twice recently. However, these numbers are far from the state’s record on April 10 when 12,847 cases were recorded.New York has reported more deaths – 33,000 – than any other state and has the second highest number of deaths per capita. Neighboring state New Jersey has had the most deaths more capita. Nearby interconnected states such as Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire have seen twice as many cases in the past four weeks than they did in the four weeks before, according to Reuters. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has taken a hardline stance in terms of limiting gathering sizes. He has released new mandates shutting down non-essential businesses in red zones and limiting the size of religious congregations, drawing the ire of business owners and religious leaders alike.  New Yorkers have begun to prepare for the second wave of coronavirus cases, as The New York Times reports that families have begun stockpiling medical supplies and the parents of over half of New York’s school children are choosing to keep them at home until at least November.

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Near 84,000 for Second Day in a Row -  The U.S. added nearly 84,000 coronavirus cases for the second-straight day, with new infections coming in barely below the daily record set the previous day. Saturday’s total of 83,718 new cases marks the second-highest single-day count after the record 83,757 infections logged Friday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. has reported nearly 8.58 million infections in total, with the death toll nearing 225,000. Epidemiologists anticipated an increase of cases in the fall as cooler weather brings Americans indoors, where there is a higher risk of transmission. But this surge is coming earlier than many expected.From September to October, Covid-19 cases have risen in all regions, but the rise has been particularly acute in the Midwest and the Rocky Mountains. At least seven states reported record one-day totals of new infections on Saturday. Illinois logged more than 6,100 cases, while Michigan reported nearly 3,500. Ohio recorded more than 2,800 infections, while Colorado and Oklahoma each reported more than 1,820 cases. New Mexico and Alaska also reported record one-day tallies.Similar to the surges the country saw in the spring and summer, the rising number of cases nationally has been accompanied by an uptick in hospitalizations. Hospitalizations in the U.S. approached 42,000 on Saturday, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project. It was the fourth straight day with more than 40,000 Covid-19 patients in hospitals.From September to October, there has been a big rise in new Covid-19 cases in several states, as well as a rise in hospitalizations resulting from the virus.Epidemiologists and public-health researchers have said a number of factors, from pandemic fatigue to the return of college students to campuses and more social gatherings, are contributing to the latest rise in U.S. cases. The recent increases are affecting broader swaths of the U.S. than the spring and summer surges, when outbreaks were heavily concentrated in a handful of states. Cases of Covid-19 are now growing both in places that have long had a high prevalence of the new coronavirus as well as new, less populous parts of the country that haven’t yet experienced it.

Czechs Impose Curfew; Warnings in U.S. Midwest: Virus Update - The Czech Republic imposed a nationwide curfew starting at 9 p.m. as of Wednesday to stem the record spread of the coronavirus. Retailers, with the exemption of pharmacies and petrol stations, must be closed on Sundays and after 8 p.m. on other days. The government also said that all employees in public and private sectors should work from home when possible. Illinois’s Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and intensive care use continue to increase and without a turnaround the state is on the path toward more than 11,000 virus deaths this year, Ngozi Ezike, the head of the department of public health, said at a press conference Monday. The state has reported 378,985 cases and 9,522 Covid-19 deaths. Its 7-day rolling positivity rate has climbed to 6.3%.“We have got to reverse the trend and slow the spread,” Governor J.B. Pritzker said at a daily press conference focused on Covid-19. He and Ezike have continued to push measures including social distancing, masks and washing hands to curb the statewide resurgence in cases and have expressed concerns about gatherings during the upcoming holiday season. Missouri, Kentucky, Utah, and South Dakota will be the next states to get “surge” virus testing sites as Covid-19 cases in the U.S. rise and federal officials push for “smart testing” strategies.Officials set up federal testing sites last week in North Carolina and Wisconsin and are ready to deploy eight more sites once they get states’ approvals, Brett Giroir, an assistant health secretary leading the administration’s testing efforts, told reporters Monday. He encouraged states to use rapid antigen tests to test those may not yet show symptoms. “We have to keep on with our testing ecosystem,” Giroir said, “particularly testing potentially asymptomatic infected individuals. There is no reason to believe that the viral load is any less” with asymptomatic people, he said.Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, “painted a pretty stark picture” of the dangers associated with rising cases in the Midwest during a weekend visit to Minnesota, Governor Tim Walz told reporters Monday. “She couldn’t have been clearer,” the Democratic governor said. “Her message was this: cases are rising across the upper Midwest and Minnesota is no exception. The infection rates in the upper Midwest, and she specifically stated on our eastern and western borders, are the highest infection rates on the planet right now.” Walz said Birx told him Minnesota and Illinois have the capacity to reverse the disease’s spread if they successfully impose mitigation strategies such as face-mask mandates and capacity limits at restaurants. Birx said other states are “going to burn, and it’s going to burn hot,” Walz said, without naming those areas.

Covid hospitalizations rising in 36 states as U.S. hits another record for average new cases - The average number of new daily cases of the coronavirus in the United States hit another record on Monday as 36 states reported worrying rises in the number of hospitalized patients. The average number of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 over the past seven days rose by at least 5% in 36 states as of Monday, according to a CNBC analysis of data from the Covid Tracking Project. Hospitalizations lag behind cases as it takes time for people to get diagnosed and become sick enough to require medical attention. However, epidemiologists point to hospitalizations as a more telling indicator of the severity of an outbreak than new cases, which can fluctuate based on testing. In Illinois, where Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced new business restrictions last week in four counties and Chicago, 2,638 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 as of Monday, according to data compiled by Covid Tracking Project, which tracks testing, hospitalization and other data on the outbreak. It's run by journalists at The Atlantic. That pushed their seven-day average up over 2,480, a more than 24% increase compared with a week ago, according to CNBC's analysis. In Texas, El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego issued a curfew on Sunday to protect "overwhelmed and exhausted" hospitals and workers. More than 5,200 people there were in hospitals with Covid-19 on Monday, Covid Tracking Project's data shows. The Lone Star state has had an average of about 4,970 Covid-19 patients in hospitals on any given day over the past week, up more than 18% compared with the previous week. "I think that the community and the country needs to realize that this is just the beginning of what could be a dark and tragic time over the next four to six weeks," Dr. Ogechika Alozie, chief medical officer of Del Sol Medical Center in El Paso, told CNBC's Shep Smith on Monday. The average number of hospitalized patients over the past seven days declined by 5% or more in just four states: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas and Maine, according to CNBC's analysis. "This is a harbinger of a very tough winter that's coming," Dr. Bill Schaffner, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University, said in a phone interview. "I think hospitals are going to be very, very stressed this fall and winter." While the number of hospitalized patients steadily marches upward, daily new cases skyrocket. Over the past seven days, the U.S. reported an average of 69,967 new cases every day, the highest seven-day average recorded yet, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. The seven-day average is up more than 19% compared with a week ago, according to CNBC's analysis. At the same time, the U.S. is testing more people than ever, according to the Covid Tracking Project. However, more testing cannot account for the rise in cases, health officials say, because the percent of tests that are positive has increased as well. About 6.3% of tests were positive on Monday based on a seven-day average, according to Johns Hopkins, up from 5.3% a week earlier.

October 26 COVID-19 Test Results; New US Record 7-Day Average Cases --The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 1,043,423 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 62,315 positive tests. Almost 18,500 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.0% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported. The dashed line is the July high.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.This is a new record 7-day average for the USA.

US sets a new record for average daily coronavirus cases | Meadows on pandemic response: 'We're not going to control it' --Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are rising sharply even as President Trump continues to downplay the pandemic. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said the administration has effectively given up on controlling the spread of the coronavirus, and more cities have begun reimposing restrictions. The US set a new record for average daily coronavirus cases The average new cases per day over a seven-day period was 68,954 on Sunday, according to the Covid Tracking Project, beating the previous record of 66,844 set on July 23. Big picture: The country has now passed the July peak, and there is no end in sight as the weather gets colder and more activity moves indoors, where the virus spreads more easily. It’s not just more testing: The president blamed the rise in cases on an increase in testing in a tweet Monday. However, hospitalizations are also rising, a sign that the rise in cases is not just because of more testing. There are more than 41,000 people hospitalized with coronavirus, up from around 30,000 at the end of September. The percentage of tests coming back positive is also rising, another sign of the rising spread of the virus. It is now at about 6 percent nationally and climbing, according to Johns Hopkins University data.  Read more here.  White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows attempted to clarify his remarks indicating that the Trump administration has given up on fighting the spread of the coronavirus, but then doubled down on them. "We're going to defeat the virus; we're not going to control it," Meadows told reporters outside the White House. "We will try to contain it as best we can, but ... we need to make sure that we have therapeutics and vaccines." Meadows was seeking to defend comments he made Sunday, when he told CNN "we’re not going to control the pandemic,” an extraordinary admission that the administration has essentially given up on fighting the spread of the coronavirus. The comment from Meadows runs counter to the rosy campaign trail message from President Trump that the country is "rounding the turn" on the pandemic, that the media is overreacting, and that there will soon be vaccines and therapeutics widely available. 

Coronavirus dashboard for October 27: The EU is now worse than the US (9 graphs)   Total US confirmed infections: 8,777,432*
Average US infections last 7 days: 71,833 (new record high)
Total US deaths: 226,695
Average US deaths last 7 days: 806 (vs. recent low of 689 11 days ago)
*I suspect the real number is about 15,000,000, or 4.5% of the total US population
The pandemic is once again raging out of control in parts of the country, and it is likely to be far worse over the winter months.  Let’s start today by comparing the US with the EU countries plus Canada. While in Canada the virus is still under control, on average, the EU is seeing nearly twice as many daily infections per capita as the United States:The EU is at parity with the US now in terms of deaths, and that can be expected to rise further as well: Here are new infections and deaths per capita for the US as a whole: Although the infection rate is worse than ever, because of either a change in the demographics of those infected (younger vs. old people) and/or better medical treatments, the death rate is nowhere near what it was early in the pandemic. The two worst States for both infections and deaths are North and South Dakota, shown below: Again, the death rate is nowhere near that of NY or NJ early in the pandemic. Turning to the bottom 10 US jurisdictions, the infection rate has recently been rising in all of them except for some Pacific islands and the three States of northern New England: The same is true of the bottom 10 US jurisdictions for deaths - although again this is not a “bad” death rate compared with earlier in the pandemic, or compared to other States and countries: Finally, New York is still in the bottom 10 for per capita infections, and California just above - but both show recent increases: In terms of deaths, New York is still doing well, and California is still slowly declining - although that may change with the recent uptick in infections there:

Hospitalizations Surge in Upper Midwest - WSJ.com - The number of people now hospitalized for Covid-19 in the U.S. has jumped 46% since the beginning of October, with a 12% rise in the last week alone, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project. Some 45,045 people are hospitalized across the U.S., a high not seen since mid-August. Between Oct. 1 and Oct. 28, hospitalizations have more than doubled in North Dakota, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. For the same time period, hospitalizations are up 77% in both Texas and New York.A number of factors are fueling the virus’s spread across the U.S.More rural communities that evaded surges in cases in the early months of the pandemic have been hit this fall.The U.S. reported nearly 79,000 new coronavirus cases for Wednesday, the second day in a row the total has come in over 70,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. In total, the nation has recorded more than 8.9 million confirmed coronavirus cases.Illinois reported more than 6,100 new cases for Wednesday, just below a record set Saturday. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Virginia also reported totals that were the second-highest since the pandemic began, according to Johns Hopkins data. The peaks in hospitalizations for earlier surges across the U.S. was about 58,000 people. The U.S. had a record number of reported cases on Wednesday, and typically Thursday through Saturday are peak days of the week, said Jeffrey Shaman, professor of environmental sciences at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.“This is the fall surge we have been worried about—we’ve had record high numbers of cases reported, and hospitalizations are beginning to climb,” said Dr. Shaman. “As the weather gets colder, drier and with less sunlight, people spend more time indoors and the virus may remain viable longer once expelled from an infectious host.”“I think this could be a very rough fall through winter,” he said. The increases in cases and hospitalizations are pushing some states and cities to step up restrictions on business, social and schooling activities.Nearly the entire state of Illinois has reintroduced mitigation efforts to stop the resurgence, with eight of the state’s 11 regions enforcing increased limitations for business, dining and social gatherings. Starting on Friday and in response to a growing positivity rate, Chicago restaurants will suspend indoor dining at the city’s restaurants and limit the size of gatherings to 25 people.In Denver, where the positivity rate is now over 7%, local officials said this week that restaurants and places of worship will be limited to 25% capacity, with similar limitations on workplaces and retail establishments. Denver public schools are also rolling back in-person learning for some elementary-age students.This week, Idaho’s Gov. Brad Little signed an order limiting the size of gatherings and mandating the use of facial coverings in long-term care facilities. And new restrictions are expected to be announced on Friday for Rhode Island, according to Gov. Gina Raimondo.

More than 40 states are reporting an increase in Covid-19 cases and many in the Midwest are seeing record hospitalizations - The US is adding an average of more than 74,000 new Covid-19 cases to the national total every day -- a record high in a pandemic that experts say is likely to worsen. The seven-day average is part of a fall surge that has brought the national case count to more than 8.8 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Four of the five highest number of cases in a single day were recorded in the last seven days, with the top two reported on Friday and Saturday. And 41 states are reporting at least 10% more cases compared to the week before. When it comes to the climbing metric, the US is "not in a good place," director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci said during a virtual Q&A on Wednesday. Health experts have pushed measures against the virus to bring the baseline of infections down before colder months drove them back up. But rising records of cases and hospitalizations are making up "a bad recipe for a tough time ahead," Fauci said. In the Midwest, residents are being impacted by the rising cases with spiking rates of hospitalizations. Indiana and Wisconsin reported their peak levels of coronavirus hospitalizations. And Kansas saw the most ICU hospitalizations of the virus in one day, the same day the state surpassed 1,000 deaths since the pandemic began. "Each one of these Kansans was someone's child, parent, or grandparent," Gov. Laura Kelly said in a release. "They were part of a community." On Wednesday, 13 states reported more hospitalization records, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Mask mandates may be a key strategy to lowering rates of hospitalization, according to the findings of a study from Vanderbilt School of Medicine. In hospitals where more than 75% of the patients came from counties that required masks, rates of hospitalizations did not rise between July and October, while hospitals with fewer than 25% of patients from those counties saw an increase over 200%. Other mitigation factors likely came into play, as areas with mask requirements are more likely to have residents who follow other mitigation strategies, the authors wrote.

Ohio adds 3,845 new COVID-19 cases, marking another record — Ohio once again shattered its daily record for new coronavirus cases on Friday as 3,845 more residents tested positive. Friday's new cases were 7.1% higher than the previous record of 3,590 new cases set Thursday, state Department of Health data shows. It marks the second time Ohio's newly reported cases have exceeded 3,000 a day and the 15th day above 2,000 cases. The new cases Friday also were 1,622 more than the three-week daily average of 2,223 new cases, according to the state health department. A total 1,629 Ohioans remained hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Friday, which is the highest number since the pandemic began in March. The total hospitalized on Friday represents a 6.1% increase, data shows. Of those 1,629 Ohioans in the hospital with coronavirus, 427 are in intensive care units and 226 are on ventilators, according to the state. Contributing to the new hospital record total, 169 more Ohioans were hospitalized Friday, which is above a three-week average of 127 new hospitalizations a day. Another 25 people were admitted to ICUs, which is above a three-week average of 20 new admissions a day, according to the state. The average rate at which Ohioans tested positive for the virus over the previous seven days rose to 6.2% on Wednesday, the most recent day for which data is available. July 25 was the last time Ohio's seven-day positive test rate was at 6.2%, according to the state. It was at its lowest of 2.7% on Sept. 24. So far, more than 4.4 million COVID-19 tests have been administered across the state. As Ohio's cases and the positive test rate continue to climb, it's unlikely the state is anywhere near its peak in the current COVID-19 wave, said Dr. Joseph Gastaldo, medical director of infectious diseases for OhioHealth. With fall and winter holidays fast approaching and people moving indoors because of cold weather, cases will probably continue to increase for a while, Gastaldo said. It's likely, he said, that Ohio's new cases and positive test rate won't peak until after the holidays. "It really depends on what the governor does and whether people are adhering to mitigation policies..."

US Coronavirus Cases Surpass 9 Million With No End in Sight— Covid-19 cases are rapidly increasing in more than 20 states in a dangerous surge one governor described as an “urgent crisis.”The United States, which reported its first known coronavirus case in Washington State 282 days ago, surpassed nine million total infections on Thursday, including more than half a million in the past week, as Covid-19 spiraled out of control in the lead-up to Election Day.Across the country, alarming signs suggested the worst was yet to come: The nation reported more cases on Thursday — at least 86,600 — than on any other single day. More than 20 states reported more cases over the past week than at any time during the pandemic. Patients were sent to field hospitals in El Paso and the Milwaukee suburbs. Growing outbreaks led to new restrictions on businesses in Chicago. Exactly zero states reported sustained declines in cases.“There is no way to sugarcoat it — we are facing an urgent crisis and there is an imminent risk to you, your family members, your friends, your neighbors,” said Gov. Tony Evers of Wisconsin, where hospitals have been strained, case numbers have exploded and more than 200 coronavirus deaths have been announced in the past week.With the presidential election days away, the country is now averaging more than 75,000 new cases daily, the worst stretch of the pandemic by that measure. Deaths, which lag behind cases, remain far below their spring levels but have ticked upward to about 780 each day. More cases have been identified in the United States than in any other country, though some nations have higher per capita infection rates.“This surge is larger than any other wave or surges that we’ve seen yet,” said Amanda Simanek, an epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee school of public health, who said she was especially worried to see case numbers spiking just as colder weather forces more people indoors, where the virus can spread easily. “This is the pattern that may continue to happen if we don’t suppress the infection down to levels that are manageable.”Recent data is almost uniformly grim.Coronavirus cases have surged in Wisconsin in October, straining hospitals in Milwaukee and other cities.Credit...Lauren Justice for The New York TimesTwenty-one states added more cases in the seven-day period ending Wednesday than in any other seven-day stretch of the pandemic. In parts of Idaho and Kansas, officials have warned that few hospital beds remained. In North Dakota, where more than 5 percent of the population has now tested positive, case numbers continue to soar, with a single-day record of more than 1,200 new infections on Thursday. As the country reached nine million cases, experts lamented opportunities lost that might have limited the spread.“I think it’s surprising how quickly it happened,” said Dr. Larry Chang, an infectious-disease expert at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. “I thought we would do a better job as a country getting organized and coming up with evidence-based national plans for mitigating this epidemic. So, while I’m not surprised we reached this number, it happened a lot faster than I thought it would.”

U.S. reports world record of more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases in single day (Reuters) - The United States set a new all-time high for coronavirus cases confirmed in a single 24-hour period on Friday, reporting just over 100,000 new infections to surpass the record total of 91,000 posted a day earlier, according to a Reuters tally. The daily caseload of 100,233 is also a world record for the global pandemic, surpassing the 97,894 cases reported by India on a single day in September. Five times over past ten days, the United States has exceeded its previous single-day record of 77,299 cases registered in July. The number of daily infections reported during past two days indicates that the nation is now reporting more than one new case every second. The spike comes just four days ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has killed nearly 230,000 people in the United States, has dominated the final stretch of the campaign. The United States crossed 9 million cumulative cases on Friday, representing nearly 3% of the population, according to a Reuters tally of publicly reported data. On Friday, 16 U.S. states reported their highest one-day coronavirus infections while thirteen states were at record levels of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. So far in October, 31 states have set records for increases in new cases, including five considered key in the Nov. 3 presidential election: Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. .

U.S. coronavirus cases cross nine million: Reuters tally (Reuters) - U.S. coronavirus cases crossed the 9 million mark on Friday, rising by 1 million in two weeks as the world’s worst-affected country faces a resurgence in the pandemic just ahead of elections. Cases are rising faster than ever before. The previous record for 1 million new cases was during a surge in infection in July and August - when it took 16 days. Now the country has recorded over 1 million cases in 14 days with no sign of the outbreak slowing. (Graphic: tmsnrt.rs/3jI3SCG) On Thursday, the United States reported a record 91,254 new cases. On average, over 77,000 cases are being reported every day in the last seven days, double the level seen two months ago. Hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients are hitting records in 21 out of 50 states. Deaths are also trending higher and have reached nearly 230,000. For every 10,000 people in the United States, over 272 coronavirus cases have been reported and about seven people have died, according to a Reuters analysis. In Europe there have been 127 cases and four deaths per 10,000 residents. Texas has surpassed California as the worst-affected state in the United States, with Florida in third place. Global coronavirus cases rose by more than 500,000 for the first time on Wednesday, a record one-day increase as countries across the Northern Hemisphere reported daily spikes. Many governments have started taking stronger measures to bring the spread of the virus under control. More than a half million lives could be lost to COVID-19 across the United States by the end of February, according to researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). U.S. President Donald Trump, who is seeking a second term on Tuesday, has been saying for weeks that the country is “rounding the turn,” even as new cases and hospitalizations soar. The United States performed 7.7 million coronavirus tests last week, of which 6.3% came back positive, compared with 5.4% the prior week, according to data from The COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer-run effort to track the outbreak. South Dakota led the nation with the highest positive test rate at 40%, followed by Idaho at 34% and Wyoming at 29%. A total of 14 states had a positive test rate of over 10%. According to a Reuters analysis, the South region comprises nearly 44% of all the cases in the United States, with nearly 4 million cases in the region alone, followed by the Midwest, West and Northeast.

18 Trump rallies have led to 30,000 COVID-19 cases: Stanford University study - A new study from Stanford University found that 18 of President Trump’s campaign rallies have led to over 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and likely led to over 700 deaths. Researchers examined rallies held between June 20 and Sept. 22, 2020, only three of which were held indoors. The researchers then compared spread of the virus in the counties that held the rallies to counties that were on similar case trajectories before the rallies occurred. The authors concluded that the rallies increased subsequent cases of COVID-19 by over 250 infections per 100,000 residents. They found that the events led to over 30,000 new cases in the country and likely resulted in over 700 deaths, but recognized that the deaths were “not necessarily among attendees.” “Our analysis strongly supports the warnings and recommendations of public health officials concerning the risk of COVID-19 transmission at large group gatherings, particularly when the degree of compliance with guidelines concerning the use of masks and social distancing is low,” the authors wrote in the paper. “The communities in which Trump rallies took place paid a high price in terms of disease and death. The study was published to preprint platform SSRN on Friday. In a statement to The Hill, the Trump campaign deputy national press secretary Courtney Parella said that, "Americans have the right to gather under the First Amendment to hear from the President of the United States." 'We take strong precautions for our campaign events, requiring every attendee to have their temperature checked, providing masks, they’re instructed to wear, and ensuring access to plenty of hand sanitizer," Parella said. "We also have signs at our events instructing attendees to wear their masks.” Biden campaign spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a statement to The Hill that Trump is “costing hundreds of lives and sparking thousands of cases with super spreader rallies that only serve his own ego.”  The study comes as the U.S. set a new single-day record for coronavirus cases on Friday, logging 97,080 new cases according to COVID Tracking Project, shattering the previous record of 88,521 on set Thursday. The president, however, has repeatedly dismissed the new surge in cases, claiming that the nation is “rounding the turn” on the pandemic. He has also blamed the media for the intense focus on COVID-19.

 First, coronavirus infections increased. Then, hospitalizations. Now, deaths are on the rise. - The Washington Post - Coronavirus infections soared this week to record levels, hospitalizations are up in almost every state, and now — predictably, but slowly — deaths are rising, too. The nation passed another milestone Friday with 9 million confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic, including more than 98,000 new cases, a daily record. More than 1,000 deaths in the United States from the novel coronavirus were reported each day Wednesday and Thursday, according to health data analyzed by The Washington Post, continuing an upward trend that began two weeks ago. All signs indicate that this isn’t a blip but rather a reflection of a massive surge in infections that, without a dramatic effort to reverse the trend, will drive up the death toll for weeks to come. At least 229,000 people in the United States have died of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. But the mortality numbers have become political fodder on the campaign trail. Depending on whom you listen to, the coronavirus just isn’t that deadly anymore. Or it’s killing people in droves. The truth is that mortality rates have improved, but the accelerating spread of the virus is driving up the absolute numbers of deaths.  Doctors have reported better outcomes thanks to improved techniques for treating patients and the use of the steroid dexamethasone and the antiviral remdesivir. In a widely reported study, researchers at NYU Langone Health found that the death rate among more than 5,000 patients in the system’s three hospitals dropped from 25.6 percent in March to 7.6 percent in August.Still, this remains a potentially deadly disease, and a large proportion of the population is still vulnerable to infection. With the number of infections hitting daily records, there is reason to expect that deaths will keeping rising until the spread of the virus is contained. Deaths lag infections by many weeks. In hard-hit North Dakota, daily infections have doubled since the end of September, while the average number of deaths from covid-19 is up 50 percent. In Indiana, cases are up 150 percent in that time, and deaths are up 93 percent.In Wisconsin, cases began spiking in early September, and deaths began to rise sharply at the end of the month. Of the 2,029 deaths there from the pandemic, more than half have occurred since Sept. 25.  President Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr. have in recent days said there has been an excessive focus on infections rather than deaths, which have not risen as quickly and remain lower than in the early days of the pandemic. “Do you ever notice, they don’t use the word ‘death’? They use the word ‘cases,’ ” the president said Tuesday in Omaha. He brought up his 14-year-old son. “Like, Barron Trump is a case. He has sniffles, he was sniffling. One Kleenex, that’s all he needed, and he was better. But he’s a case.”  The younger Trump posted a graph on his Instagram account, based on incomplete Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, that he claimed showed deaths dropping. “Why isn’t the ACTUAL data from the CDC being discussed? . . . [W]hile there have been increases in new cases per week, there has actually been a steady decrease in deaths per week,” Trump Jr. wrote. He echoed that argument in a television interview Thursday on Fox News, saying he asked himself why people weren’t talking about deaths, and deciding, “Oh, because the number is almost nothing. Because we’ve gotten control of this thing, we understand how it works.”

Covid Spikes in Europe, US Before Winter Is Here -Yves Smith -- We have said for some time that Covid-19 is in charge, that the state of the economy is much more of a function of perception of risks than of lockdowns. Studies of cellphone data show that on a widespread basis, people started curtailing their movements before lockdowns were imposed earlier this year. In places where restaurants are open for indoor dining, sitdown meals are still way down. Most people are still avoiding air travel despite mounting evidence that it’s not very risky. But the flip side is that we are also seeing, dramatically, that there’s been enough chafing at restrictions to produce alarming rises in Covid infection rates. Those that contend “Not to worry, death rates are lower” need to get a grip:  It’s too early to speak with any confidence of death rates from this spike, since deaths usually occur three to four weeks after symptom onset. And if hospitals become overwhelmed (and they are already near capacity in some parts of the US), some will not get great or any care. Having said that, medical professionals do know more than they did six months ago about how to treat serious cases.  Evidence is mounting of all sorts of serious Covid impairment, from “long Covid” to heart, kidney, and lung damage, including in the young.  It’s distressing to see infection rates spiking in many parts of Europe, including Italy, with its disastrously high Covid-19 toll of the spring, had gotten contagion rates way down. This chart is from the Wall Street Journal:  The per capita infection rate in Europe is now higher than in the US, even with our own spike underway. In France, it’s more than three times higher than America’s, too much of a difference to attribute to our lousy testing regime.  Not that things are going well here. See for instance Alabama, which looked flatish until the last two days. Most here blame the rise on football games: And worse, infection rates are rising before winter has set in. Winter means both more time inside with people in uncirculated/not well filtered air, and that indoor air is drier, which helps virus transmission.  And the most afflicted countries are responding with new curbs. From the Financial Times:  Italy said it would introduce the harshest public health restrictions since the end of its first national lockdown in May as new coronavirus cases hit a fresh daily record. Spain announced a nationwide curfew and triggered emergency powers after the country’s infection rate jumped by almost a third over the past week.  Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez said the nationwide curfew between 11pm and 6am would be imposed immediately, following requests by 10 of the country’s 17 regions.  Over in Sweden, Uppsala has gone into a voluntary lockdown.  Belgian whiplash: Meanwhile, Brussels inhabitants went from a few extra restrictions issued by the federal government Friday morning, to an effective standstill, including acur few between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. (effective today), issued by Brussels region premier Rudi Vervoort Saturday afternoon.  Sadly, people need to wrap their mind around acting as if Santa has delivered them a lump of coal, even for those whose finances are OK. Plan on tucking in with some favorite holiday cheer, and some good books, movies, and/or music. If you can sit before a fire, even better. Or as a Financial Times reader put it:  This is not that hard. Many countries in Asia have shown what needs to be done. Lock down for a month, test and track people methodically, wear masks, and limit mass gatherings. This goes a long way to getting the virus under control….  The insistence of protecting personal freedoms at all costs and ignoring the reality is leading all to pay a far heavier price than is necessary…

Sweden Refuses To Impose New Lockdown Measures, Saying People Have Suffered Enough -Health authorities in Sweden have refused to follow the rest of Europe by imposing new coronavirus lockdown measures on their population, arguing that those beset by loneliness and misery of being isolated have suffered enough. Despite Sweden mirroring other countries on the continent with rising coronavirus infections, the government has held firm in refusing to lockdown its population, weighing the untold misery and health impacts of isolation against the threat of COVID-19. Covid-19 Impact on the Podcast Sector“The elderly, they said, have suffered enough,” writes Fraser Nelson.“They have spent months being advised to avoid public transport, shopping malls and other parts of everyday life. And the result? Loneliness. Misery. This is more than unpleasant: it quickly translates into depression, mental health issues and mortality.“We cannot only think about infection control,” said Lena Hallengren, Sweden’s health minister, “we also need to think about public health.” An important distinction: "focus on Covid to the exclusion of other conditions and you risk lives.”Hallengren’s 21 page report also uncovered a “decline in mental health” that was “likely to worsen the longer the recommendations remain in place,” leading officials to lift lockdown restrictions that previously applied to over-70s.After deciding to take a “herd immunity” approach to COVID-19 at the start of the pandemic, Sweden was roundly condemned for not following the harsh lockdowns imposed by virtually every other major European country. However, as Newsweek acknowledged, Sweden’s COVID-19 death rate is lower than those of Spain, the UK and Italy, countries which all imposed draconian lockdowns.

Where Europe’s Second Wave Is Filling Up Hospitals — NYT (graphics)) Poland has turned its largest stadium into an emergency field hospital. The numbers of Covid-19 patients in Belgium and Britain have doubled in two weeks. And doctors and nurses in the Czech Republic are falling ill at an alarming rate.As new cases of the virus began to increase again across Europe last month, hospitals were initially spared the mass influx of patients they weathered earlier this spring. Some suggested that the virus had become less deadly, or that older, more vulnerable people would be shielded. But a second wave of serious illness is here, new data released on Thursday shows, making it clear that the pandemic is still dangerous and that adherence to control measures over the next few weeks will be crucial in preventing hospitals from becoming overrun for a second time this year. Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Hospital data for Europe includes 21 countries that report daily hospital occupancy data to the ECDC. Germany, the Netherlands and others are omitted. Spring peak is the highest value from March and April, except for Hungary where data collection began in May. Current patients in hospitals reflect the most recent available data.The number of Covid-19 patients in hospitals across the continent is still less than half of the peak in March and April, but it is rising steadily each week, according to data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. People across much of Europe — including larger countries like France, Italy, Poland and Spain — are now more likely to be hospitalized with Covid-19 than those in the United States. Hospitalization rates are a key measure of the pandemic’s severity. The rates rise and fall days or weeks behind the tallies of new infections. But infection figures depend heavily on each country’s testing capacity, while seriously ill people tend to enter hospitals whether they have been tested for the virus or not.Europe’s current wave of infection is due in part to the relative normalcy it experienced this summer. Unlike the United States, where the epidemic rose to a second peak in July and a third peak this month, travelers moved around Europe, college studentsreturned to campus and many large gatherings resumed, all while the virus kept spreading.Now hospitals are scrambling to prepare for an onrush of Covid-19 patients, at a time when bed and intensive care capacity will already be under strain during the winter flu season.In Poland, the government converted the country’s largest stadium into a temporary field hospital with room for 500 patients. Hospitals in France, especially in the Paris area, have started to postpone non-emergency surgeries, while others have called back staff on leave. More than one-fifth of Spain’s intensive care beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients, and in Madrid, that figure is closer to 40 percent.And in the Czech Republic — where the current hospitalization rate surpasses the worst period in Britain — physicians are worried about a shortage of staff. “In some regions, about 10 percent of the medical staff is either already infected or in quarantine,” said Petr Smejkal, the chief of infectious diseases and epidemiology at the Institute of Clinical and Experimental Medicine in Prague.

France Emerges as Covid-19 Epicenter as Cases Surge Across Europe - WSJ—France has emerged as the epicenter of the second wave of coronavirus infections now sweeping much of Europe, causing hospitals to brace for a surge of new patients and pushing the government to consider tough new restrictions in some places. The country saw daily cases top 50,000 over the weekend, while the seven-day average of new daily cases has increased by more than 50% over the past week, reaching 38,278 on Tuesday. That compares with a seven-day average of 69,967 cases in the U.S., whose population is around five times as big. On Tuesday, health authorities reported 523 new deaths, including 235 in nursing homes and other government facilities, the highest total death toll since April. In response, President Emmanuel Macron could implement tough new restrictions to confront Europe’s largest coronavirus outbreak, as previous measures appear to have been insufficient in containing the spread. Earlier this month, French authorities ordered a curfew from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. in the Paris region and nine other cities. The government is now considering earlier curfews in many parts of the country, as well as weekend lockdowns that would sharply curtail individuals’ movements in virus hot spots such as Paris, effectively confining them to home, according to a close presidential aide. Mr. Macron is meeting with members of his government on Tuesday and Wednesday morning to decide which measures to adopt, the person added. Mr. Macron will address the nation on Wednesday evening. The surge in infections in France comes amid a sharp rise this autumn in much of the Continent, reversing the gains Europe had won by last summer, when draconian, nationwide lockdowns in many European countries pushed infections down to a trickle. Now, European governments are struggling to respond to the second wave, loath to impose new lockdowns that would compound the economic pain the coronavirus pandemic has already inflicted on their countries, but concerned about the steady rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Jean-François Delfraissy, a doctor and immunology specialist who leads a scientific board advising the French government on how to tackle the pandemic, said this week that the actual number of new daily cases of infection in France is probably closer to 100,000 a day, and is likely to continue to increase. “The second wave could be worse than the first one,” Dr. Delfraissy said.

France Joins Germany In Reviving Nationwide Lockdown As COVID-19 Cases Soar Across Europe- Live --As expected, French President Emmanuel Macron announced during a briefing Wednesday evening that France would join Germany in announcing a new partial lockdown that would see schools remain open, while curfews, 'nonessential' business closures and restrictions on movement return.Per the new restrictions, all bars and restaurants across France will close, a measure that is infuriating the national hospitality industry.Will the announcement, which was telegraphed in advance by leaks to the press, rattle markets on Thursday, leading to a continuation of Wednesday's market turmoil?The restrictions will endure for at least a month, Macron said.As some Italians take to the streets to protest the most restrictive nationwide measures since the end of the lockdown, Italy has reported another daily record, with 24,991 new cases reported in the last 24 hours on Thursday. They also reported 205 new deaths.One commentator said the numbers mean another lockdown for Italy "just went from possible to likely" as we await an announcement from French President Emmanuel Macron. It's the second straight daily record for Italy, and the latest in what has been an almost unbroken string of record over the past 2 weeks.The northern region of Lombardy is again one of the hardest-hit areas, reporting 7,758 new cases, while Lazio reported 1,963. ICU patients increased by 126 to 1,536 as hospitalizations soared and the positivity rate was roughly 13%. The number dead increased by 205 to 37,905.Meanwhile, the AP has published a lengthy update on the situation in Europe, which included comments made by EU President von der Leyen after a pan-European meeting on Wednesday. She said Europe is "deep in the second wave" and that "I think that this year's Christmas will be a different Christmas."She added that the continent isn't just dealing with the virus, but also "coronavirus fatigue".“We’re dealing with the coronavirus- the virus itself - and also corona fatigue,” she said. "That is, people are becoming more and more fed up with the preventive measures."Deaths have also been on the rise in Europe, with the number dying increasing by 35% over the past week.More than 2 million new confirmed coronavirus cases have been reported globally in the past week, the WHO said, which is the shortest time ever for such a dramatic increase. Of these 46% of the new cases were reported in Europe.

The policy of “herd immunity” pushes Europe’s health care system toward the abyss - The limited measures announced by various European governments following record numbers of new coronavirus cases in multiple countries over the weekend cannot hide the disaster caused by their premature policy of resuming work and reopening schools. On Sunday, records were broken in Italy, France and Germany. There were 21,273 cases of COVID-19 detected in Italy. According to data reported by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for Infectious Diseases, there were 11,176 more cases in Germany than the day before. France recorded 52,010 cases, up from 45,000 the day before. In France, the milestone of one million cases since the beginning of the pandemic has been passed. The number of deaths attributable to the disease reached 116 on Sunday, bringing the total number of deaths since the beginning of the epidemic to 34,761. The test positivity rate continues to rise, reaching 17 percent, up from 16 percent the day before, and only 4.5 percent in early September. Spain reported more than 52,000 new cases this weekend, and a cumulative total of 361.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants diagnosed in the last 14 days. Confirmed cases are increasing across the peninsula and the Balearic Islands. On Friday, 231 additional deaths were recorded, bringing the official death toll to 34,752. The real figure, according to the Spanish press, is more than 55,000 deaths. The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on Saturday that it had recorded a new world record of coronavirus infections for the third consecutive day, with the Northern Hemisphere being particularly affected. According to WHO world statistics, 465,319 cases were confirmed on Saturday, compared to 449,720 on Friday and 437,247 on Thursday. Faced with the chaotic health situation in Europe, measures have been taken in several countries. Italy will close cinemas, theaters, gyms and swimming pools, while bars and restaurants will stop serving after 6 p.m. One of the most affected countries, Belgium, moved its curfew forward to 10 p.m. Cultural and sports activities have been banned since Monday.

With coronavirus exploding in Europe, hospitals calculate how long until they hit capacity - For Germany, the breaking point could come in December. France and Switzerland might crack by mid-November. Belgium could hit its limit by the end of the week. Europe, in the throes of a savage second wave of the pandemic, is on the verge of a medical crisis, with intensive care units quickly filling to the breaking point. Governments are finding that when confronted by the unforgiving reality of an exponentially spreading virus, even vast investments to expand hospital capacity can be washed away in days. Germany, Europe’s best-resourced nation, risks being swamped even after increasing its intensive care beds by a quarter over the summer. Belgium, which had doubled its intensive care capacity, is now preparing for decisions about which needy patient should get a bed. “This huge capacity we’ve built gave a false impression of security. It gave a higher buffer, but ultimately it only represents a week when you’re in an exponential phase,” In retrospect, the warning signs could be seen as early as July, when cases in Europe started ticking up again after the relaxation of spring lockdowns. In absolute terms, the numbers were still tiny.  Central European leaders — among the worst hit now, but back then largely untouched — gathered at the end of August for a triumphant conference to discuss the post-pandemic era. But the math for exponential growth is as simple as it is scary. When two coronavirus cases double to four, and four cases double to eight, it doesn’t take long for the numbers to reach the tens of thousands — and beyond.   Europe is now feeling the explosion. The continent reported 1.5 million cases over the past week, the highest yet during the pandemic, the World Health Organization’s Europe director, Hans Kluge, told an emergency meeting of health ministers on Thursday. Deaths rose by a third in seven days. Occupancy of intensive care units doubled in 17 days leading up to Oct. 25 in countries tracked by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. “Europe is at the epicenter of this pandemic once again,” Kluge said. A week ago, French intensive care beds were half full. Now, they are more than two-thirds occupied, with more than 3,100 covid-19 patients. When President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday announced a second national lockdown — something he and other European leaders have sought mightily to avoid — he warned that “at this stage, we know that whatever we do, nearly 9,000 patients will be in intensive care by mid-November, which is almost the entirety of French capacities.”

British PM says England will enter into second lock down  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Saturday that England will enter into a second lockdown after the United Kingdom (U.K.) surpassed 1 million coronavirus cases. The U.K.’s health department reported 21,915 cases on Saturday, bringing the nation’s total to 1,011,660 cases since the pandemic began. Johnson was originally expected to announce the measures on Monday, according to the British Times. Before Johnson's announcement Saturday evening, a senior government official told the news outlet earlier in the day that no final decision had been made yet, but added that “the data is really bad.”"We're seeing COVID-19 rising all over the country and hospitals are struggling to cope. There has been a shift in our position,” the source reportedly said. Under the new lockdown, non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues will be closed. Pubs, bars, and restaurants will only be open for takeout and delivery services. People can only leave their homes if they cannot work for home, for education, to get food and essential items, and for outdoor exercise and recreation with that person’s household or with one person for another household. People can also leave for medical reasons and to escape injury or harm, as well as to provide care for vulnerable people. Workplaces can also stay open where people cannot work from home, such as construction or manufacturing jobs. The shutdown will go into effect on Thursday after a vote in Parliament next week, Johnson said, and will remain in effect until the start of December.  The prime minister was hesitant to call for another lockdown as the U.K. economy is still recovering from the first lockdown in the spring. The measures come as both France and Germany announced lockdownson Wednesday as Europe experiences another wave of infections. The World Health Organization said on Thursday that Europe had once again become the epicenter of the pandemic.  There have been 10 million confirmed cases in the region since the pandemic began, according to the Associated Press.

Africa's confirmed COVID-19 cases pass 1.7 million – The number of confirmed cases in the African continent has reached 1,707,741, the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said on Sunday. The Africa CDC said in a statement that the death toll related to the pandemic stood at 41,145 as of Sunday afternoon.A total of 1,399,238 people infected with COVID-19 have recovered across the continent, the Africa CDC said.The most affected African countries in terms of the number of positive cases include South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia and Nigeria. The Southern Africa region is the most COVID-19 affected region both in terms of the number of confirmed positive cases as well as the number of deaths.

Ontario’s reckless reopening of workplaces and schools producing disastrous conditions in child care facilities Health authorities in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, reported record high new COVID-19 infections on successive days last weekend, with 978 new cases on Saturday and 1,042 Sunday. The seven-day rolling average of new cases also stood at an all-time high Sunday of 857. The dramatic resurgence of COVID-19 cases since the beginning of September is the direct result of the homicidal policy of “reopening” the economy and schools, so as to step up the wringing of profits from the working class. This policy, which prioritizes profits over human lives, is backed by the entire political establishment, beginning with the federal Liberal and Ontario Conservative governments, and it is being enforced by the trade unions. They have repeatedly denounced worker job action against potentially life-threatening conditions in unsafe factories and schools as “illegal.” The resurgent pandemic is taking a particularly harsh toll on child care workers. This low-paid, highly exploited section of workers is being placed in extreme danger by the ruling elite’s criminal policies. With virtually no safeguards to protect them from the virus, they come into close contact with large numbers of children, parents, and other relatives on a daily basis, exposing them to a high risk of infection. Big business views the provision of child care for worker-parents as pivotal to its drive to corral workers back on the job amid a raging pandemic. Even prior to the pandemic, the acute shortage of child care spaces and child care options was contributing to reduced employment participation rates. Statistics Canada found that in 2019, 7 percent of workers had reduced their hours due to the lack of affordable child care. Illustrating the scale of the demand for child care, nationally, nearly 1.5 million children were regularly receiving non-parental child care before the pandemic’s outbreak. Across Canada, most child care centres were closed when COVID-19 cases exploded in March and provincial governments were forced to order lockdowns. Parents were left at home with pre-K and other young children, some of whom began to attend school virtually. Some municipalities established child care centres for essential workers, but those who could kept their children away from day cares due to concerns about the spread of the virus. The refusal of the federal and provincial governments to offer adequate financial support to families left many parents to fend for themselves.

Chinese Authorities Scramble To Suppress Biggest COVID-19 Outbreak In Months - Chinese authorities are scrambling to suppress yet another outbreak in far-flung Xinjiang after a 17-year-old garment factory worker tested positive. Health authorities reported 137 new cases on Sunday, all of which were confirmed in Xinjiang Province, making this by far the largest new outbreak since the Spring. In keeping with Beijing's prescribed "wartime posture" approach, authorities last night launched a mass-testing campaign to try and test all 4.75 million residents in and around the city of Kashgar. A couple of weeks ago, authorities pulled off a similarly massive testing drive in Qingdao, a city in the eastern Shangdong Province. Thanks to sweeping smartphone-based mass surveillance/case-tracking, scapegoating and outright suppression of case numbers and deaths, China has managed to drive COVID-19 case numbers to almost zero. In Wuhan, locals travel to bars and concerts, sometimes, taking rapid COVID-19 tests, with their infection status logged on their smartphones in a way that can be examined by bouncers at the door. To further confuse the international community, along with the Chinese public, China's national health authorities have divided case classifications into imported vs. domestic and asymptomatic vs symptomatic. Here's how the 'official' tally of cases has evolved in recent weeks. The new cases, all classified as asymptomatic, were linked to a factory in Shufu county where the 17-year-old girl and her parents worked, according to the Xinjiang health commission, which held a press briefing on Sunday following an exhaustive investigation of the source of the outbreak by Beijing's NHC. As of Sunday afternoon more than 2.8 million samples had been collected in the area and the rest would be completed within two days, the city government said in a statement.

New Research Points To The People's Liberation Army Hospital In Wuhan As Origin For Global  Coronavirus Pandemic -- A paper published on Zenodo (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.4119263) by Dr. Steven Quay, M.D., PhD., head of two COVID-19 therapeutic programs at Atossa Therapeutics, illuminates new scientific observations and conclusions documenting that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic began at the General Hospital of Central Theater Command of People’s Liberation Army (PLA Hospital) in Wuhan, China, located at 627 Wulon Road, Wuchang District, Wuhan.  According to the paper, international biospecimen data repositories indicate as early as December 10, 2019 COVID patient records were being created by PLA personnel, weeks before the Chinese government informed the WHO of the pandemic.  The paper documents four patients from the PLA Hospital that have the earliest genetic signature of direct human-to-human coronavirus transmission. It also includes the patient whose coronavirus is genetically closest to a bat virus from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) that WIV scientists call “the closest relative of 2019-nCoV.”  The PLA Hospital is three kilometers from WIV and both are located on Line 2 of the Wuhan Metro System. The paper documents an analysis of the hospitals where the earliest COVID patients were seen, between December 1, 2019 to early January, and shows that all these hospitals were also located on the Metro Line 2.  This is the first paper in the world to observe that Line 2 is uniquely positioned to have been the worldwide human-to-human COVID pandemic conduit as it carries five percent of the population of Wuhan every day, allowing rapid spread throughout Wuhan and the entire Hubei Province; it includes the high-speed rail station, allowing rapid spread throughout China; and it terminates at the international airport station, allowing rapid spread throughout the world.  Line 2 also services the Hunan Seafood Market, previously suggested to be associated with the origin of the pandemic. The full paper can be read below (pdf link)

Doctors in South Korea call for flu vaccinations to be paused after 25 deaths --South Korean officials refused on Thursday to suspend a seasonal influenza inoculation effort, despite growing calls for a halt, including an appeal from a key group of doctors, after the deaths of at least 25 of those vaccinated. Healthauthorities said they found no direct links between the deaths and the vaccines. At least 22 of the dead, including a 17-year-old boy, were part of a campaign to inoculate 19 million teenagers and senior citizens for free, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said.“The number of deaths has increased, but our team sees low possibility that the deaths resulted from the shots,” the agency’s director, Jeong Eun-kyeong, told parliament.South Korea ordered a fifth more flu vaccines this year to ward off what it calls a “twindemic”, or the prospect that people with flu develop coronavirus complications and overburden hospitals in winter. “I understand and regret that people are concerned about the vaccine,” said health minister Park Neung-hoo, who confirmed the free programme would carry on. “We’re looking into the causes but will again thoroughly examine the entire process in which various government agencies are involved, from production to distribution.” Vaccine providers include domestic firms such as GC Pharma, SK Bioscience, Korea Vaccine and Boryung Biopharma Co Ltd, a unit of Boryung Pharm Co Ltd, along with France’s Sanofi. They supply both the free programme and paid services that together aim to vaccinate about 30 million people of a population of 52 million. Of the 25 dead, 10 received products from SK Bioscience, five each from Boryung and GC Pharma, one from Korea Vaccine and four from Sanofi. All four domestic firms declined to comment, while Sanofi did not immediately reply to requests for comment. It was not immediately clear if any of the vaccines made in South Korea were exported, or if those supplied by Sanofi were also being used elsewhere. The Korean Medical Association, an influential grouping of doctors, urged the government to temporarily halt all inoculation programmes to allay public concerns and ensure the vaccines were safe. Kim Chong-in, leader of the main opposition People Power party, wanted the programme halted until the causes of the deaths were verified. But health authorities have said a preliminary investigation into six deaths found no direct link to the vaccines, with no toxic substances uncovered.

 Dicamba Weed Killer Linked to Cancer Is Reapproved by EPA - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved the use of products containing the weedkiller dicambafor use on cotton and soybeans Tuesday. The EPA announcement means that two products that contain the herbicide found to cause cancer can be registered for five years. It also extended the use of a third product that also has dicamba in it, according to The Hill.  The EPA said that two canceled dicamba herbicides — XtendiMax and Engenia — will now have a five-year registration. The same five-year extension was granted to the herbicide Tavium. The EPA argued that it provides relief to farmers who were unsure how they would treat their dicamba-resistant cotton and soybean crops. "With today's decision, farmers now have the certainty they need to make plans for their 2021 growing season," said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in a statement. "After reviewing substantial amounts of new information, conducting scientific assessments based on the best available science, and carefully considering input from stakeholders we have reached a resolution that is good for our farmers and our environment."  The new rules around the three products are meant to address the concerns of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which struck down a 2018 registration of dicamba products, stating that the EPA "substantially understated" some of the risks associated with the chemical's use, as The Hill reported.  Also, a study earlier this year published in the International Journal of Epidemiology found that the chemical was linked to increased rates of liver and bile duct cancer. The EPA's new rules seek to mitigate the risk by increasing the required downwind buffer from 110 feet to 240 feet, and up to 310 feet in areas where endangered species are located. States can still impose their own restrictions on the herbicide, but they will have to work with the EPA and file the appropriate requests, according to the EPA's statement. Lobbying groups for big agriculture and industry insiders welcomed the decision.

Crop industry wants EPA to boost lab inspections for pesticide research - A dwindling number of Environmental Protection Agency lab inspectors for studies supporting pesticide re-approval is prompting industry calls for more government oversight. The EPA has just five inspectors tasked with evaluating the laboratory practices of hundreds of labs that conduct studies surrounding pesticide regulations, marking a steady decline over the past 25 years for the officials in charge of inspecting compliance with the agency’s Good Laboratory Practice Standards. Those standards were adopted decades ago after major issues in private lab testing were uncovered by investigators. Now, inspectors review reports deemed suspicious and carry out spot inspections that function much like an IRS audit and are seen as a way to prevent fraudulent research. CropLife America, a major industry group whose members include companies like Bayer CropScience, John Deere and PepsiCo., is among those pushing the EPA for more lab inspections. Proponents argue the lend legitimacy to industry lab results in the eyes of worldwide regulators. A lack of inspections, in turn, is seen as hurting the integrity of U.S. industry in a global marketplace. Under the Good Laboratory Practices (GLP) program, the EPA inspects the quality and integrity of data submitted in support of approving a pesticide. But some industry groups say the agency should augment its program. In a 2018 email to the EPA that was obtained by the Center for Biological Diversity and shared with The Hill, CropLife America’s senior director for regulatory policy expressed concern about the low staffing number for the program. “The GLP inspection and audit program is being starved of resources and personnel,” Ray McAllister wrote. “There are some 1400 laboratories, facilities, and field sites in the US participating in GLP research on pesticides,” he added in the email. “With current staffing of the audit and inspection program, keeping up with that number of facilities seems like an impossible task.” The EPA said the number of facilities in the U.S. is closer to 1,200.

First Asian giant hornet nest in US found in Whatcom County — The first Asian giant hornet nest in the United States was located in Whatcom County, the Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA)announced Friday morning. WSDA entomologists discovered the nest on private property in Blaine around 4 p.m. Thursday. The nest was found in the cavity of a tree near an area cleared for a residential home, the agency said.The department said two live hornets were captured in the area Wednesday. Two more live hornets were found in another trap Thursday when staff returned to the area to attach radio trackers to the previously trapped hornets in an attempt to follow the insects back to its nest. WSDA staff attached radio trackers to three of the hornets and followed one to the newly discovered nest.“Dozens” of hornets were seen entering and exiting the tree while a WSDA team was present. Asian giant hornets typically nest in the ground, but the department said the invasive insects occasionally nest in dead trees.The WSDA will attempt to eradicate the nest Saturday morning. Experts will seal up the entrance to the nest in the tree and then create a small opening and suck the bees and nest out using a vacuum that will extract them into a chamber. The property owner has given WSDA permission for the nest to be eradicated and for staff to remove the tree if necessary."Stopping this cold is very crucial because as everybody knows, manage pollination is a very key component of our agricultural commodities and the systems that we have in place to grow food here in the U.S. And so very important fight," said Sven Spichiger, an entomologist with WSDA, during a press conference Friday afternoon. The Asian giant hornet was first spotted in Washington state in 2019 and since then the WSDA has been on the hunt for the invasive species, which kills bees and takes the bee larvae to feed their own young.

Trump Administration To Remove Endangered Species Protections for Gray Wolves - The Trump administration announced on Thursday that gray wolves will no longer receive protection under the Endangered Species Act in the contiguous United States.Gray wolves were on the brink of extinction when they were one of the first animals to receive protections under the Endangered Species Act in 1975. Their numbers had dropped to nearly 1,000 as farmers hunted and poisoned them since the wolves posed a threat to livestock, according to The Guardian. Now, the U.S. Department of the Interior believes the gray wolf has rebounded well enough that its protections should be left to the states and to tribes."Today's action reflects the Trump Administration's continued commitment to species conservation based on the parameters of the law and the best scientific and commercial data available," said Secretary of the Interior David L. Bernhardt in a statement. "After more than 45 years as a listed species, the gray wolf has exceeded all conservation goals for recovery. Today's announcement simply reflects the determination that this species is neither a threatened nor endangered species based on the specific factors Congress has laid out in the law."In total, there are roughly 6,000 gray wolves living mostly in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. There are an estimated additional 1,800 present in other states in the West, according to The Washington Post.Biologists contend that the wolves' comeback is not complete since they occupy a small portion of the land they once roamed. Large swaths of land in Utah, Colorado and Maine that were once habitat for wolves are now completely devoid of them. Some critics see the move as a blatantly political maneuver by Trump to wrangle support in the upper Midwest, where polls show him trailing. "Wolves will be shot and killed because Donald Trump is desperate to gin up his voters in the Midwest," said Brett Hartl, chief political strategist at the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund, in a statement, as CNNreported. "Secretary Bernhardt's nakedly political theater announcing the end to wolf protections in a battleground state days before the election shows just how corrupt and self-serving the Trump administration is."The final rule will be officially published on Tuesday, Election Day, and then go into effect 60 days after that.

How Air Pollution, Food Delivery and Plastic Waste Are Connected - Researchers from the National University of Singapore (NUS) have discovered a link between air pollution, food delivery and plastic waste. In a study published in Nature Human Behavior, the researchers found that the more polluted air outside is, the more likely office employees are to use food delivery services. This, in turn, increases the waste produced from single-use food packaging and bags. "While we see more research on the impact plastic pollution is having on the natural environment, there has been less work trying to understand the human behaviour that drives plastic pollution," Alberto Salvo, one of the study's authors, said in an NUS news release. "This is where our study seeks to contribute – finding a strong causal link between air pollution and plastic waste through the demand for food delivery." The study surveyed the lunch choices of 251 office workers for 11 workdays each in three Chinese cities known for having levels of smog – Beijing, Shenyang and Shijiazhuang, the release explained. They also looked at data from an online food delivery platform with over 350,000 users. By comparing both datasets with air pollution data during the lunch hour, NUS researchers found that employees were 43% more likely to order food delivery when there was a 100 μg m–3 increase in particulate matter pollution (PM2.5), International Business Times (IBT) reported. By contrast, the general public was 7.2% more likely to use food delivery services with the same increase in air pollution. During the lunchtime periods surveyed by NUS researchers, PM2.5 levels were often well above the 24-hour U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 35 μg/m³, making pollution highly visible, the NUS release said. "Faced with smog or haze outside, a typical office worker at lunchtime can avoid exposure only by ordering food to be delivered to his or her doorstep," said NUS researcher Chu Junhong in the NUS release. In a second part of the study, office workers submitted photos of their lunches, which researchers used to quantify the amount of disposable plastic in different dining choices, explained an NUS Business School video. Not surprisingly, researchers found that delivered meals used more plastic than meals eaten in restaurants. The average delivered meal used an average of 2.8 single-use plastic items or an estimated 54 grams of plastic, the video explained. By comparison, the average restaurant meal used an average of 6.6 grams of plastic, usually in the form of chopstick sleeves or bottles.COVID-19 has exacerbated the problem by increasing the demand for delivered meals, which are usually packaged in plastic, the video explained.

Toxic algae bloom behind massive marine die-off in Russia's Kamchatka - A toxic algae bloom has been found to be responsible for the massive die-off of marine creatures off Russia's Kamchatka, Environment Minister Dmitry Kobylkin confirmed Friday, October 23, 2020. The mysterious pollution was first reported by local surfers in September, who suffered health issues and chemical burns. In mid-October, 95 percent of seabed animals have been found dead off the coast, leading to theories that it was caused by harmful, manmade chemicals. "It was the toxicity of the algae," Kobylkin said, noting that the die-off was not caused by a man-made disaster. He added that it was unclear why the algae bloom had led to so much damage to the waters around the peninsula, and authorities were still trying to identify what triggered the bloom, as well as the reduction in oxygen levels in the water. The pollution had affected a 40 km (25 miles) swath, scientists said. Environmental activists who visited the site said they discovered yellowish foam on the sea surface. A criminal case has been opened over the incident, in which the initial findings did not reveal higher-than-normal levels of manmade pollution, such as an oil spill. On Friday, the investigative committee confirmed in a statement that the mass death has been caused by toxic phytoplankton. Andrei Adiyanov, vice president of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained that after studying thousands of water samples, the presence of toxins from a single-celled organism called dinoflagellate was found. "We can say that the mass death of benthic aquatic organisms occurred as a result of exposure to toxins from a complex of species of the genus Karenia, a representative of dinoflagellates." Mikhail Kirpichnikov, head of Moscow State University’s department of bioengineering, said groupings of plankton were seen drifting northward toward Chukotka, before shifting to the south to the shores of Kamchatka. These microscopic organisms fed the toxic algae bloom.

 This New Artificial Beach in the Philippines Poses Health and Environmental Threat - A stretch of coastline in the Philippine capital, Manila has received backlash from environmentalists. The heavily polluted Manila Bay area, which had been slated for cleanup, has become the site of a controversial 500-meter (1,600-foot) stretch of white sand beach.The beach, however, is anything but clean, environmentalists say. "It's an illusion," said Lia Mai Torres, executive director of the Center for Environmental Concerns Philippines. "Just because it's white it doesn't mean it's clean."  The white sand is actually crushed dolomite sourced from a mine in Cebu, in central Philippines. Using sand made from dolomite rock in such a project is highly uncommon, experts say. The large majority of sand beaches worldwide are made up of quartz and feldspar, while dolomite sand is commonly used in road construction.  "I have never come across any beach nourishment with dolomite sand," said Arnaud Vander Velpen, who's the monitoring and innovation lead in UNEP/GRID-Geneva's Department on Sand Monitoring and Governance. While UNEP/GRID-Geneva generally supports finding alternative sources of sand so as not to disrupt ecosystems in rivers and oceans when extracting them, Vander Velpen stressed it was vital to use sand which closely matches the makeup of the native sand to protect beach fauna. "If you change the core characteristics of the native sand, the original sand, you need to do an environmental impact assessment (EIA) to find out how it's going to impact the ecosystem and nearby ecosystems," he told DW. But according to Torres, such an assessment was not done in Manila.  . A statement by the Institute of Biology said that using crushed dolomite did not address any of the rehabilitation phases and instead was "even more detrimental to the existing biodiversity as well as the communities in the area," pointing to the case of water birds. "The dumping of dolomite in Manila Bay has effectively covered part of the intertidal area used by the birds thereby reducing their habitat."  At peak migration season, Manila Bay is home to 90 aquatic bird species, including species of international conservation concern that are facing a very high extinction risk in the wild.

Major early-season winter storm brings heavy snow and record cold temperatures to U.S. - Widespread heavy snow falling across the central Rockies and central Plains is forecast to shift further south and develop into another major winter storm for the southern High Plains Monday into Tuesday, October 26 into 27, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The station in Potomac, Montana, recorded -33 °C (-29 °F) on Sunday morning, October 25 -- the lowest temperature at an official climate site in the U.S. this early in the season.

• More record cold temperatures are expected to engulf the affected regions over the next couple of days.
• An area of freezing rain and sleet is forecast to develop over portions of the southern Plains to start the week.

The new, early-season major winter storm across the central Rockies to the Plains is showing no sign of abating. It comes on the heels of another early-season winter storm which hit parts of the northern U.S. last week, breaking scores of snowfall records in Montana, Iowa, and Minnesota. Storm warnings, winter storm watches, and winter weather advisories have been issued from the central and southern Rockies into the Plains, as far south as West Texas and Oklahoma.  Heavy snow started in Washington State, northern Idaho, and Montana on Friday, October 23. Up to 63 cm (25 inches) of snow already fell southwest of Helena, Montana. This was the sixth heaviest two-day snowfall on record in the area.The Potomac station reported -33 °C (-29 °F) on Sunday morning-- the lowest temperature measured at an official climate site in the U.S. this early in the season in any year. The previous record low by October 25 was -28 °C (-20 °F) set in 1919, according to climatologist Brian Bretschneider.In Washington State, 19 cm (7.5 inches) of snow was recorded at the airport in Spokane, marking the city's snowiest October on record (since 1893). In Great Falls, 28 cm (11 inches) of snow fell, also marking the city's snowiest October on record.

 Montana records coldest temperature ever this early in the season in contiguous U.S. (videos) The station in Potomac, Montana reported a temperature of -33 °C (-29 °F) on Sunday morning, October 25, 2020-- the coldest ever temperature in the contiguous U.S. this early in the season, the National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed. "It's official," said NWS Missoula. "The coldest temperature this morning (October 25) in the contiguous United Staes occurred at Potomac, Montana." At Townsend, the low of -20.5 °C (-5 °F) set a daily record and also broke the previous one set in 1901. Other cold temperatures recorded were -26.1 °C (-15 °F) at Sula, -25 °C (-13 °F) at Ronan and -23.9 °C (-11 °F) at Melville. Hundreds of temperature and snow records were also observed from Texas to Montana after early-season winter storms hit parts of the northern U.S. On the same day, NWS Marquette recorded 20.3 cm (8.3 inches) of snow, breaking the old record of 7.9 cm (3.1 inches) set in 1976. Holter Dam registered the most snow on the ground in Montana at 48 cm (19 inches). "This recent snowfall also established a new monthly snowfall record for the month of October at our office."

Rare October ice storm hits Oklahoma, leaving more than 300 000 customers without power - (videos) A rare October ice storm hit Oklahoma on Tuesday, October 27, 2020, causing traffic chaos and leaving more than 300 000 customers without power. A state of emergency was declared for 47 counties. NWS offices in Norman and Tulsa have issued their first-ever ice storm warnings in October.  911 was flooded with calls on Tuesday as a potent winter storm -- named Billy by The Weather Channel -- coated trees with as much as 13 mm (0.5 inches) of ice, resulting in downed trees and powerlines, and disrupted traffic. Some locations in Oklahoma and Texas could see as much as 25 mm (1 inch) of total ice accretion before this event is over. As of 21:00 UTC, 309 000 customers across the state are still without power. More than half of them are in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area, where schools were closed today. The storm brought snow, ice and freezing temperatures from Montana to New Mexico over the past couple of days. It came on the heels of another early-season winter storm which hit parts of the northern U.S. last week, breaking scores of snowfall records in Montana, Iowa, and Minnesota. Areas of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will continue over the next couple of days from the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, with significant icing from northern Texas to central and western Oklahoma, NWS forecasters noted. The energetic cold upper low that is responsible for the recent widespread snowfall down the Rockies will deliver more snow from the southern Rockies into the High Plains through Wednesday. An additional 75 to 150 mm (3 to 6 inches) of snow can be expected over the southern High Plains, including Northwest New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle, with lesser amounts in the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, as the low lifts milder air northward from the western Gulf of Mexico, a swath of freezing rain and mixed precipitation is forecast to continue into early Wednesday morning from northern Texas to western/central Oklahoma.

Early-season snow and freezing temperatures hit Mexico's Chihuahua - The first snowfall of the season has arrived in Chihuahua, Mexico, on October 27, 2020, accompanied by rains and below-freezing temperatures as low as -8 °C (17.6 °F). According to meteorologists, the phenomenon was unusual for the month of October.While the Yucatan Peninsula was hit by Hurricane Zeta on Tuesday, Chihuahua was engulfed by the first snowfall of the season, along with rainfall and very low temperatures. Residents in the state posted photos and videos of heavy snow blanketing the roads.According to Meteorologia Mexico, some areas shivered through temperatures of -2 °C (28.4 °F) and -8 °C (F). Several activities were canceled or limited due to the heavy snow, rainfall, and cold temperatures, including the training session of a soccer team as a thick layer of snow covered a field in Juarez. Tiempo Severo Chihuahua noted that the rainfall in Juarez was part of a rare meteorological phenomenon, with below-freezing temperatures atypical for the month of October. Meanwhile, Las Cruces in New Mexico-- which is bordering Chihuahua-- measured up to 10 cm (4 inches) on Tuesday, October 27 -- its earliest snow on record, according to the National Weather Service.

Remnants of Hurricane "Epsilon" to bring heavy rain, high waves, and strong winds to UK and Ireland - (videos) The remains of Hurricane "Epsilon" are set to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the UK, prompting the Met Office to issue yellow weather warnings across parts of the west of England from Thursday to Friday, October 29 to 30, 2020. The system is merging with an explosively developing low in the North Atlantic, located south of Iceland, expected to cause major waves in the region. The remains of the ex-hurricane have been absorbed into a larger, developing extratropical storm. According to Severe Weather Europe (SWE), the system may peak at around 940 hPa on Tuesday, October 27. The wide channel of violent winds will form a massive windstorm and major waves spreading towards Ireland and the UK. Waves may reach up to 13 m (42 feet) to the south of the low's center, and will eventually push towards Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Scotland on Wednesday morning, October 28. "The new wave and surface low will approach western Europe by Thursday morning," SWE added. "It will bring another frontal system into Ireland and the UK, with mainly some more excessive and heavy rain besides the gusty winds. Some winds could be severe, especially across western Ireland." "Severe winds are expected to develop across the northern and western portions of the storm. As the pressure gradient strengthens against the surface high-pressure system over Greenland."

Tropical Storm Zeta To Intensify Into Hurricane Leading To More Gulf Coast Chaos - Tropical Storm Zeta formed in the Caribbean Sunday morning, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasting the storm could strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday as a midweek landfall is expected on the US Gulf Coast. Zeta could strike the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. More specifically, hurricane models, as of Sunday afternoon, predict storm surge, rainfall, and hurricane wind impacts could be seen from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. To remind readers, on June 1, day one of hurricane season, we said this season "could be above average, with 13 to 19 named storms." And to our surprise, Zeta is the 27th named storm, tying 2005 as the most active hurricane season on record. In early August, one month before La Nina was declared, we said the hurricane season is about to go "from bad to worse with La Nina odds up." By Sept. 10, the Climate Prediction Center confirmed La Nina, a weather pattern in the Northern Hemisphere that fuels more tropical activity. On Sunday afternoon, Zeta was located a few hundred miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and had maximum sustained winds of up to 40 mph. Here's NHC's 1700 ET Tropical Storm Zeta Outlook: In early October, Hurricane Delta forced offshore oil and gas production on the Gulf Coast to reduce output by nearly two-thirds. Now Zeta is headed for the same region.

 Hurricane "Zeta" makes landfall in Yucatan, heads toward U.S. Gulf Coast -- Hurricane "Zeta" made landfall along the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico near Ciudad Chemuyil around 04:00 UTC on October 27, 2020. The storm had estimated maximum winds of 130 km/h (80 mph), making it a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NHC forecasters expect tropical storm conditions to continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through this morning (LT). Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba today, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and make landfall late Wednesday or Wednesday night (LT/CDT) at or near hurricane strength. At the time of landfall, Zeta's center was located about 25 km (15 miles) NNE of Tulum, Mexico, and was moving NW at 20 km/h (13 mph). The storm brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Yucatan Peninsula, along with a storm surge 0.6 - 1.2 m (2 - 4 feet) above normal tides.By 09:00 UTC today, Zeta was located about 140 km (85 miles) ESE of Progreso, Mexico, and about 905 km (560 miles) S of the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Maximum sustained winds decreased to 110 km/h (70 mph) while minimum central pressure rose to 984 hPa (from 977 hPa at 04:00 UTC).

 Hurricane "Zeta" makes historic landfall in Louisiana, U.S. - Fast-moving Hurricane "Zeta" made landfall at its peak strength near Cocodrie in southeastern Louisiana at 21:00 UTC on October 28, 2020. Its maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph) at the time of landfall placed it on the upper edge of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and made it the strongest hurricane to make landfall anywhere in the continental US this late in the calendar year since the Halloween Hurricane of 1899. Zeta is also the record-setting 5^th named storm to make landfall in Louisiana in 2020, breaking the previous record of 4 Louisiana landfalling named stores set in 2002. ​  Zeta delivered a direct hit to New Orleans, Louisiana's largest city, brought heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge, leaving many low-lying areas underwater. Authorities reported at least 2 fatalities -- one person was electrocuted by downed power lines in New Orleans while another died in Biloxi, Mississippi, probably from drowning. Fast-moving Hurricane "Zeta" made landfall at its peak strength near Cocodrie in southeastern Louisiana at 21:00 UTC on October 28, 2020. Its maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph) at the time of landfall placed it on the upper edge of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and made it the strongest hurricane to make landfall anywhere in the continental US this late in the calendar year since the Halloween Hurricane of 1899. Zeta is also the record-setting 5th named storm to make landfall in Louisiana in 2020, breaking the previous record of 4 Louisiana landfalling named stores set in 2002. ​ Zeta delivered a direct hit to New Orleans, Louisiana's largest city, brought heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge, leaving many low-lying areas underwater. Authorities reported at least 2 fatalities -- one person was electrocuted by downed power lines in New Orleans while another died in Biloxi, Mississippi, probably from drowning. Zeta's effects combined with winter storm which hit the region over the weekend and into the week. Together, they left 507 000 customers without power in Louisiana, 322 000 in Oklahoma, 258 000 in Alabama, 233 000 in Mississippi, and 85 000 in Georgia -- more than 1.4 million customers. Power outages in Texas and Oklahoma were mostly caused by a record early ice-storm. Zeta is the record 11th named storm to make landfall in the continental US this season. The prior record for Atlantic named storms making landfall in the continental US was 9, set it 1916. Other named storms making landfall in the continental US this season are Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta, Delta. Zeta's maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph) at the time of landfall make it the strongest hurricane to make landfall anywhere in the continental US this late in the calendar year since the Halloween Hurricane of 1899 in South Carolina, also with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h. This is now the 6th Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the continental US so far this year, tying 2020 with 1886 and 1985 for the most continental US hurricane landfalls in a single hurricane season on record. Zeta is also the record-setting 5th named storm to make landfall in Louisiana in 2020, breaking the previous record of 4 Louisiana landfalling named stores set in 2002.

Zeta leaves over 2 million customers without power and at least three dead after battering Gulf Coast -  )More than 32 million people are under tropical storm warnings from the Gulf Coast to the mid-Atlantic Thursday morning as former Hurricane Zeta rushes northeast. Zeta made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm Wednesday before weakening to atropical storm, with sustained winds of 60 mph as of 5 a.m. ET Thursday. The storm has killed at least three people and cut power to more than 2 million utility customers across the South.As of 5 a.m. ET Thursday, Zeta's center was near the state line in northern Alabama and Georgia, about 65 miles to the west of the Metro Atlanta area lashing parts of both states with winds gusting over 70 mph. The storm was picking up momentum -- traveling at 39 mph -- and the National Hurricane Center says an even faster northeastward movement is expected later Thursday.  "On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move across portions of the southeastern US this morning, across the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight, it said Thursday morning. Zeta's fast advance means the system won't lose much energy, CNN meteorologist Michael Guy said. This will allow Zeta to keep tropical storm intensity with strong winds throughout its course to the Atlantic.Zeta is expected to bring strong gusty winds, isolated tornadoes and heavy rain with the potential to produce flash flooding overnight.Hurricane and storm surge warnings have been discontinued for all of Louisiana and the Mississippi coast, but coastal areas of Alabama have been warned the storm surge threat remains due to remnant winds left in the wake of the hurricane.At least 32.7 million people from the Gulf Coast toward the Carolinas were under Tropical Storm warnings Thusday morning. The last time metro Atlanta was under such a warning was October 2018 as Hurricane Michael passed over the region. As Zeta moved inland across the South, it caused substantial power outages across several states. More than 2 million utility customers were in the dark in Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi early Thursday, according to PowerOutage.US.

Zeta Knocks Out Power to 2.4 Million and Kills 3 People as It Races Across the South | The Weather Channel -  Zeta, which came ashore Wednesday in Louisiana as a strong Category 2 hurricane, wreaked havoc as it raced across the Southern U.S. Thursday morning. Now a tropical storm, Zeta ripped off roofs, knocked down power lines and trees and flooded streets as it roared through Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia early Thursday. Heavy rain and winds also pounded eastern Tennessee and the Carolinas.More than 2.4 million homes and businesses were without power across seven states as of 10 a.m., according to power outage.us. In Georgia alone, more than 870,000 customers had no electricity. Louisiana and Alabama were each more than 400,000. North Carolina and South Carolina both had more than 150,000 customers without electricity. At least three people died in the storm. In Louisiana, a 55-year-old man was electrocuted by low-hanging power lines in New Orleans. In Mississippi, an Alabama man taking video of the storm in Biloxi drowned at a marina, the Sun Herald reported. In Georgia, one person was reportedly killed when a tree fell through their house in Cherokee County, the AJC reported. The storm made landfall about 4 p.m. CDT Wednesday near Cocodrie in Terrebonne Parish and moved over New Orleans with howling winds and driving rain. Here's a look at some of the impacts of the storm state by state.Atlanta was under a tropical storm warning for the second time ever. Its first warning was in 2017 when Hurricane Irma roared into Florida as a deadly Category 4 storm. And Zeta delivered. The storm downed trees and power lines across northern Georgia. More than 1 million homes and businesses had their power knocked out. Several school districts either moved classes fully online or canceled classes all together Thursday. First responders had to rescue an Atlanta man pinned to his bed when a large tree fell into his bedroom. The man had minor injuries and was taken to a hospital, according to a fire department spokesman. The death in Cherokee County happened when a large oak tree uprooted and fell through the corner of a mobile home in Acworth, killing a man, In Gwinnett County, a fallen tree closed I-985 South between Buford Drive and I-85, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported. At least three counties, Cobb, Fulton and Rockdale, announced early voting would be delayed Thursday because of the storm, WXIA reported. They planned to open at 10 or 10:30 a.m. The six early voting sites in Douglas County were down because of power outages, WSB reported. "Zeta has left hazards like flooded roads, downed power lines and displaced wildlife in our communities that no one should take lightly. Now is not the time to go sight-seeing," Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards tweeted Thursday morning. "Everyone needs to remain vigilant, continue to listen to local officials and be safe." About 25 people had to be evacuate when Zeta caused part of an apartment building to collapse near Gretna, Louisiana, in Jefferson Parish, WDSU reported. One person was injured. One person was taken to the hospital after a roof collapsed on a building in New Orleans, Thursday morning, the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway Bridge was closed in both directions because of the severe weather, the state Department of Transportation announced. Video on WDSU from Grand Isle, a barrier island in Jefferson Parish, showed large homes with their roofs torn off, a crumpled gas station canopy and downed utility poles and wires. 

These hurricane evacuees were told to return to Lake Charles. They came home to unlivable conditions.  - In mid-October, a month and a half after Hurricane Laura pounded southwest Louisiana with the stiffest winds to hit the state in a century and a half, more than 1,300 evacuees who were taking refuge in government-provided hotels received a message: It was time to return home. The texts and letters slipped under the doors of hurricane victims in hotels in Louisiana and Texas were part of an effort by the state and federal government to get more evacuees back home to Lake Charles as the longer-term recovery effort from Laura and the lesser but still damaging Hurricane Delta continues. But for many of those evacuees, the messages were a source of consternation. Some suspected their homes were uninhabitable, and they were being told to travel several hours to go live in them, or to otherwise get the state to change its assessment and confirm the homes weren’t fit to occupy. Since then, 571 people have requested a “reassessment,” challenging the government’s initial classification that their homes had “minor or moderate” damage. A little over half have since had their status changed to “major damage” or “destroyed,” designations that allow the evacuee to return to a hotel provided by the state.  Gloria Jack, 73, a Hurricane Laura evacuee staying in a New Orleans hotel, received a letter in mid-October telling her to return home. Her daughter, Vanessa Field, accompanied her on the trek back to Lake Charles. They found ceiling tiles strewn about her apartment’s living room floor, after the double whammy of Laura and Delta caused much of the floor of the upstairs apartment to fall into Jack’s unit. The moldy stench throughout the two-story home was unbearable for longer than a minute a minute or two, even when wearing a mask. Thick black sludge oozed out from underneath the oven. The State Fire Marshal’s Office had determined the home was “livable” during an initial assessment, which triggered an abrupt conclusion to Jack’s two-month stay at the Marriott Hotel in New Orleans. She learned this from a letter slipped under the door to her room on the evening of Oct. 19, Jack said.  .“Ain’t nobody can go up in there. That smell is killing me,”

Vietnam Prepares to Evacuate 1.3 Million as Typhoon Molave Approaches  - Typhoon Molave is expected to make landfall in Vietnam on Wednesday with 90 mph winds and heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding and landslides, according to the U.S. Embassy and U.S. Consulate in Ho Chi Minh City. To prepare for the powerful storm that already tore through the Philippines, Vietnam is making plans to evacuate nearly 1.3 million people along the central coast, as Reuters reported.On Tuesday, hundreds of flights were grounded, and schools were closed as Molave churned over the South China Sea. When Molave hits Vietnam on Wednesday, it will be the fourth storm to strike the central region in October. Those successive storms have caused floods and landslides that killed 130 people. Many are still missing, according to the Sydney Morning Herald."This is a very strong typhoon that will impact a large area," said Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, as Reuters reported. Molave is moving over a part of the South China Sea with warm waters, which creates favorable conditions for the storm to strengthen, according toAccuWeather. Vietnam has a long coastline, which makes it particularly vulnerable to storms and coastal flooding. Phuc ordered boats to be brought ashore and for security forces to ready themselves for humanitarian efforts.  "Troops must deploy full force to support people, including mobilizing helicopters, tanks and other means of transportation if needed," he said in a statement, according to Reuters. The storm is expected to move over Vietnam quickly and weaken as it moves inland, but its heavy rainfall will likely trigger widespread flooding and weaken mountain slopes, which increases the risk for mudslides. AccuWeather predicts up to 16 inches of rain in areas of the country that have already experienced extreme rainfall and flooding since Oct. 11. People in low-lying areas, who are vulnerable to the winds and coastal flooding, will head for shelter inland, according to the AP. Typhoon Molave blew away from the Philippines on Monday, leaving flooding and a trail of destruction in its wake. There are 13 people missing in the Philippines, including a dozen fishermen who sailed out to sea over the weekend in violation of a no-sail order, according to the AP. The storm, which traveled south of Manila, displaced at least 25,000 villagers. Its heavy rains swamped farming villages and the winds downed trees and power lines,  "Villagers are now asking to be rescued because of the sudden wind which blew away roofs," he said, as Deutsche Welle reported.

Millions affected as Typhoon "Molave" hits central Vietnam - the country's worst storm in 20 years -- (videos) Typhoon "Molave" made landfall over Quang Nam and Quang Tri provinces in Vietnam's central region at 04:00 UTC (11:00 LT) on Wednesday, October 28, 2020, with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h (103 mph) -- a Category 2 hurricane equivalent. At least 2 people have been killed, 26 others are missing, and more than 1.7 million families were affected. The storm, which was described as the most powerful to hit Vietnam in the last 20 years, is worsening the current situation in the country as it is still suffering from major floods and landslides that took the lives of more than 150 people over the past weeks. On Tuesday, October 27, winds of up to 135 km/h (84 mph) battered the area between Thua Thien-Hue and Phu Yen provinces. The region has recorded 250 mm (10 inches) of rainfall since the evening. Gia Lai in the Central Highlands was also hit by heavy rains and strong winds.  More than 1.7 million families have been affected by power outages, according to the Central Power Corporation. The impacted provinces were Da Nang, Quang Tri, Thua Thien-Hue, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Kon Tum, Gia Lai, and Dak Lak. Hundreds of roofs were torn while several public works in Quang Ngai and Quang Nam were severely damaged. In Hoi An, many streets were inundated. At least two fatalities have been reported by the Vietnam News Agency-- both victims were killed by strong winds in separate incidents. In Binh Dinh, 26 fishermen went missing after two fishing boats sank while they were trying to seek shelter. The government has mobilized almost 250 000 personnel and 2 300 vehicles for search and rescue operations. "The people of Vietnam are tough, yet this is among the worst destruction ever seen in many areas," said Vietnam Red Cross Society president Nguyen Thi Xuan Thu. "The relentless storms and flooding are taking a devastating human toll, further destroying livelihoods and isolating millions of people." According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Molave was the most powerful storm to hit Vietnam in the last 20 years, warning that it's especially dangerous due to its speed, size, and strength.

Death toll jumps to 230 after Typhoon "Molave" strikes central Vietnam (videos) At least 230 people have lost their lives in flood and landslide events due to severe weather in central Vietnam this month, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said Friday, October 30, 2020. This included 14 confirmed fatalities from two major landslides triggered by Typhoon "Molave" after it made landfall on Wednesday morning, October 28.Molave, which was described as the country's worst storm in 20 years, triggered two major landslides-- one in Tra Leng and the other in Tra Van.In Tra Leng, 53 people were buried under the rubbles, of which six have been confirmed dead. 34 people survived, while 13 others remain missing. In Tra Van, 20 people were buried, resulting in eight fatalities and 12 people injured.  Rescue efforts are ongoing in the commune, despite difficulties in accessing the site due to other landslides in the area. Hundreds of police officers and soldiers have been deployed for the said operations. Ho Thi Hau, a 19-year old local, said she witnessed her relatives being hit by the mudslide. "I heard the sound of the ground exploding. When I ran out, I saw that half a hill had collapsed onto the village, burying all the houses and roads."Nguyen Thanh Son, a 56-year-old man who survived the Tra Leng landslide, said he saw "trees and soil tumbling down very quickly and powerfully." "I yelled for others to run away, but we couldn't escape. I was blasted to the front by the sheer force of water and rocks," he continued, adding that he witnessed the catastrophic scene right before his eyes, with other people screaming for help amongst the rubble."There was a girl who broke her leg and called out for help near me. I picked her up and out of the wreckage. Then I continued to help some other injured people to get out." However, his wife did not make it out alive.

Vietnam suffers through a “new normal” of extreme weather events Vietnam is being pummelled by ongoing tropical storms causing major flooding and landslides in its central regions. As of Monday morning, the death toll had reached 130 with 18 people missing, according to government figures. This was up from 119 fatalities on Saturday, with most occurring in the central provinces of Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue and Quang Nam. Close to a million people have been severely affected, with many in desperate need of shelter, food, clean drinking water and income support. According to the UN, as of last Thursday, at least 178,000 homes were currently under water. Flood levels eclipsed the 1979 record by 0.98 metres, hovering at 4.89 metres for several consecutive days in the province of Quang Binh. The amount of rain that fell between October 6 and 13 was two to six times higher than normal in some regions. Most of the hardest hit have been poor farmers. Agricultural damage has been extensive, with 1,500 hectares of rice fields and 7,800 hectares of other crops being either flooded or damaged. Close to a million head of cattle and poultry have also been killed or swept away. The government has stated that the damage caused has been “the worst in five years”. Several highways and local roads are blocked with rocks the size of cars, hampering rescue efforts. About a third of deaths have been of military personnel. In one instance, a team of 21 rescuers, most of them military officers, was sent to verify reports of 17 workers buried by a landslide at the Rao Trang 3 hydroelectric plant deep in the jungle. The workers were reportedly asleep when they were buried on October 12. The rescue team stopped at a ranger station for the night and were buried in a rocky landslide. Of the 13 deaths, 11 were from the military. Only four of the 17 workers at the dam have been recovered thus far and authorities have deployed more rescue forces to the scene. Days later, a barracks in Quang Tri was consumed by a mudslide in the early hours of the morning, killing 20 military personnel, likely the largest number of military casualties suffered in a period of peace, according to officials. Scientists believe flooding in central Vietnam is the result of a “new normal” of weather patterns driven by complex processes. On an international scale, the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDDR) reported recently a 75 percent increase in natural disasters in the last 20 years. Between 1980 and 1999, there were 4,212 major natural disasters. Between 2000 and 2019, 7,348 major disaster events were recorded costing 1.23 million lives, affecting 4.2 billion people and costing the global economy USD$2.97 trillion. The increase is largely attributed to climate related events such as floods, droughts and storms.

 More than 40 dead or missing after landslide hits San Salvador volcano, El Salvador - A large landslide triggered by heavy rains hit the northeastern flank of the San Salvador volcano in El Salvador late October 29 (LT), 2020.The slide hit the village of Los Angelitos on the slopes of the volcano, burying 60 homes and damaging 75. Los Angelitos is some 20 km (12 miles) north of the capital.The country's Civil Protection Agency said the landslide carved a route approximately 4 km (2.5 miles) in length through the village, sweeping mud, rocks and tree trunks in its path.At least 7 people have died and 35 others were suspected missing on October 30. The Environment Ministry said weather station in the area registered 140 mm (5.5 inches) of rain in 24 hours to October 30.

Exceptionally massive hail strikes Tripoli, Libya - possibly one of the largest on record --(videos) Libya's capital Tripoli was hit by a sudden storm on Tuesday, October 27, 2020, which generated exceptionally massive hail measuring more than 20 cm (8 inches) in diameter. Reports indicate that the hail could be one of the largest on record, along with the 2010 Dakota storm and the 2018 Argentina hail. Local reports said the sudden storm resulted in severe damage to properties as many trees were knocked down and hailstones struck several vehicles. The Libyan Port and Shipping Authority confirmed that the port of Tripoli sustained damage, including fallen containers in the squares and port basin. Libya's capital Tripoli was hit by a sudden storm on Tuesday, October 27, 2020, which generated exceptionally massive hail measuring more than 20 cm (8 inches) in diameter. Reports indicate that the hail could be one of the largest on record, along with the 2010 Dakota storm and the 2018 Argentina hail. Local reports said the sudden storm resulted in severe damage to properties as many trees were knocked down and hailstones struck several vehicles. The Libyan Port and Shipping Authority confirmed that the port of Tripoli sustained damage, including fallen containers in the squares and port basin. 

NJ DEP says don't jump to conclusions flood review  - A top environmental official pushed back against attacks from some activists who say the state won’t be doing enough to control development in flood-prone areas when it publishes an overhaul of climate regulations next year. Shawn LaTourette, deputy commissioner of the Department of Environmental Protection, said it’s too early to draw any conclusions about what regulations on climate adaptation and mitigation will say when they emerge from a current review, called Protecting Against Climate Threats (NJ PACT). LaTourette said in a recent interview with NJ Spotlight News, the regulations won’t be telling developers where they can and cannot build houses but will instead require them to assess how a proposed property would be affected by climate impacts such as sea-level rise or inland flooding. That prompted strong protests from some environmentalists who accused DEP of preparing to abandon its responsibilities to protect people and property from the expected ravages of climate change. Jumping to conclusions? But in a follow-up interview on Friday, LaTourette said the critics were wrong to conclude that the DEP would leave it up to an individual to decide whether it was safe to build a house in a particular location. “They have nothing to react to at this point,” he said. “For folks to jump to the conclusion that what we may propose to help ready our state to face this great risk, for folks to presuppose that whatever it is won’t be good enough, that’s not following the science.”

 California Begins Cutting Power To 361,000 Customers As Fire Risk Surges - Facing bone-crushing dryness and the strongest winds of the wildfire season, California's largest utility company, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) which filed for historic bankruptcy due to its role in previous infernos sweeping across the state has "de-energized certain electrical lines" in Northern California, which may result in what could be the largest mass blackout of the year. PG&E released a statement Sunday morning, informing customers that 361,000 homes and or businesses were part of the blackout, affecting 36 counties, mainly in Northern California, starting at 10:00 PST. Listed below are the counties affected by the planned blackouts: PG&E's initial projection of homes and businesses that would lose power on Sunday is down 105k from Friday's 466k estimate. The power company's primary reason to de-energize some of its power lines is that high winds are expected on Sunday, increasing the risk for trees and or limbs to fly into powerlines and potentially ignite fires in regions of low humidity and dry vegetation.  "This event looks particularly dangerous due to a combination of factors that we continue to track," said Scott Strenfel, PG&E's head of meteorology and fire science, who was quoted by Bloomberg. Strong winds and low humidity were expected throughout the day on Sunday, he said.The next round of blackouts, expected imminently, will be a devastating blow for the state, already battered by extreme weather this fire season, scorching more than 4 million acres so far. PG&E has preemptively cut power four times this season.  High wind gusts are expected for some regions in Northern California through Monday, tweeted The National Weather Service (NWS) Sacramento.

California braces for fire weather; PG&E cuts off power to some - Pacific Gas and Electric began cutting power to nearly 1 million people in Northern and Central California on Sunday amid what forecasters described as the most dangerous fire weather of the season.The utility institutes the so-called “public safety power shutoffs” ahead of certain weather conditions out of concern that a gust of wind could snap off a tree branch or damage a piece of equipment, creating a spark that could ignite dry brush and spread into a wildfire.A weather system is expected to bring strong, dry, north-northeast winds through the mountain passes up and down California — winds referred to as Diablos in Northern California and Santa Anas in the southern part of the state. Winds started to pick up in some northern areas Sunday afternoon and were expected to become most widespread and intense overnight into Monday, though critical conditions were expected to last well into Tuesday.“It’s definitely the strongest wind event of this fire season and probably the lowest humidity as well,” said Duane Dykema, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey. “So overall, these are the most dangerous and critical conditions we’ve seen this fire season.”By Sunday evening, PG&E had shut off power to about 225,000 customers and planned to cut electricity to roughly 136,000 more through the night, utility representatives said. That amounts to more than 900,000 people, assuming that each customer account represents two to three. Shutoffs were expected to continue through Monday into the late evening. PG&E initially said it might cut power to more than 460,000 customers, or more than 1.1 million people, but later said a combination of favorable changes in the weather forecast enabled it to avoid some shutoffs. The number of customers who were to lose power in Alameda County, for example, was reduced by more than half, from a projected 39,401 Saturday to 16,329 Sunday. PG&E’s equipment has already been blamed for starting some of the worst wildfires in state history, including the 2018 Camp fire, which led to the utilitypleading guilty to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter. PG&E has also agreed to pay billions of dollars to settle damage claims stemming from a series of deadly fires sparked by its power lines between 2015 and 2018. Most recently, PG&E said California investigators were looking at its equipment as a possible cause of the Zogg fire that started last month in Shasta County, killing four people and burning more than 56,000 acres in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

90,000 people told to evacuate because of wildfires in Southern California -  A wildfire that nearly quadrupled in size Monday, prompted tens of thousands of people to evacuate and caused two firefighters to suffer critical injuries may have been started by a power company's equipment. Southern California Edison said a power line may have played a role in the ignition of the Silverado Fire -- which has burned 7,200 acres near Irvine -- a report filed with California Public Utilities Commission shows. The initial safety incident report describes overhead electrical facilities in the area where authorities think the fire started, but notes there was no activity on the circuit. "We reported the incident despite seeing no activity on the nearby 12-kV circuit nor any downed power lines because it appears that a lashing wire attached to a telecommunications line may have contacted SCE's power line above it, possibly starting the fire," SCE spokesman Chris Abel told CNN. Because of the blaze and the new, 3,000-acre Blue Ridge Fire, Orange County Officials told 90,000 people to evacuate. Fire officials said 700 people are battling the two fires, and on Monday two of them were critically injured. The men suffered second- and third-degree burns while battling the Silverado Fire near Irvine, Orange County Fire Authority Chief Brian Fennessy told reporters.

 New California Fires Force More Than 90,000 to Evacuate -- California's devastating wildfire season raged on Monday as new blazes in Orange County injured two firefighters and forced around 90,800 people to flee their homes, The New York Times reported.The two firefighters suffered second and third degree burns over most of their bodies while battling the larger Silverado Fire and had to be intubated. They are 26 and 31 years old."They are gravely injured. Their families are with them," Orange County Fire Authority (OCFA) Fire Chief Brian Fennessy said, as USA TODAY reported. "We are giving them all the support we can."The Silverado Fire was first reported at 6:47 a.m. near Irvine, California, CBS Los Angeles (LA) reported. At first, it was only 10 acres, and firefighters hoped it could be limited to the brush in a less populated area of the city, USA TODAY reported. But the flames were fanned by strong winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour, with gusts up to 70 miles per hour. In three hours, it grew to 2,000 acres, CBSLA reported."The wind is crazy, my family has been through it in Malibu," evacuee Ruby Johnson told CBSLA. "It's a crazy thing, never had to experience it ourselves. You can replace clothes and things, but you can't replace your lives. I've got all the pictures and valuables, so we're ready to go."As of Monday evening, 500 firefighters were battling the blaze, which had spread to 7,200 acres and was zero percent contained, OCFA tweeted.The second fire of the day was the Blue Ridge Fire, which ignited just before 1 p.m., as CBSLA reported further. It broke out in the Chino Hills above Yorba Linda, according to USA TODAY. On its own, it prompted almost 5,000 evacuations, according to CBSLA. It seriously damaged at least one residence.By the end of the day, there were around 200 firefighters working on it and it was zero percent contained, OCFA tweeted. By late Monday night, it had spread to 6,600 acres.As with every extreme weather event during the 2020 hurricane and fire seasons, evacuations were complicated by the ongoing spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Fire evacuee Kelsey Brewer told USA TODAY how she and her three roommates had to make a plan for where they could safely shelter. They decided to head to the home of her girlfriend's mother because it was spacious and she lived there alone. "We literally talked about it this morning," Brewer said. "There's nowhere you can go to feel safe." And the nightmare is far from over for Southern California, as the arrival of the Santa Ana winds brings low moisture, National Weather Service Sacramento meteorologist Jim Mathews told USA TODAY. He said the weather conditions now were similar to those that had fueled destructive fires in the past, like the Kincade Fire in 2019 or the Camp Fire in 2018. "This is our severe weather season right now: fire weather," he told USA TODAY.

Firefighters critically injured as blazes burn in Irvine, Yorba Linda - Los Angeles Times - Orange County Monday was under siege from two wind-driven brush fires that forced 90,000 people from their homes, critically injuring two firefighters and leaving many others on edge. The Silverado fire in Irvine broke out shortly after 6:45 a.m. near Santiago Canyon and Silverado Canyon roads. The fire, which was burning in a hilly area above homes, had grown to 7,200 acres by 4:30 p.m., officials said. A second blaze, the Blue Ridge fire, had burned one home, threatened hundreds of others in Yorba Linda north of the 91 Freeway and scorched 6,600 acres by late Monday night. The injured firefighters, 26 and 31, were hurt battling the Silverado fire. Both were intubated after suffering second- and third-degree burns over half their bodies, Orange County Fire Authority Chief Brian Fennessy said. Additional details weren’t immediately available. Fennessy said he visited the injured firefighters and their family members at Orange County Global Medical Center. “They’re gravely injured,” he said. “We’re doing all we can for them.” A mandatory evacuation order was issued for about 70,000 residents in Irvine, including all homes north of Irvine Boulevard between Bake Parkway and Jamboree Road, officials said. Homes from Irvine Boulevard to Trabuco Road and from Jeffrey Road east to Portola High School were also evacuated. So far, no structures have been damaged or destroyed. Evacuation centers were set up at seven locations, including Los Olivos Community Center, Harvard Community Center, Village Church of Irvine and Las Lomas Community Center in Irvine, and many were at capacity by late morning, the city said. Highway 241 was shut down from Santiago Canyon Road to Highway 133. Portola Parkway was closed between the 241 and Jamboree Road, and Santiago Canyon Road was closed from the 241 to Live Oak Canyon Road. Monday evening, Southern California Edison said its equipment may have started the Silverado fire. In a report to the state Public Utilities Commission, Edison said it was investigating whether its electrical equipment caused the blaze. The brief report said it appeared that a “lashing wire” may have struck a primary conductor, and an investigation was underway.

Out-of-control Southern California wildfires force tens of thousands out of homes - - Crews tried to beat back two out-of-control wildfires in Southern California on Tuesday that have kept tens of thousands of people out of their homes even as another round of dangerous fire weather raises the risk for flames erupting across the state. Fierce winds that drove twin fires through brushy hills near cities in Orange County a day earlier were expected to pick back up, although not to the earlier extremes, according to the National Weather Service. Southern California Edison reported to regulators that it was investigating whether its equipment might have sparked the Silverado Fire near the city of Irvine. The utility said a wire that lashed a telecommunications line to a supporting cable may have struck a 12,000-volt conducting line above it. Edison was among the utilities in California that deliberately cut power to customers to prevent equipment from sparking wildfires after being knocked down or hit with debris in the winds. Utility equipment has been blamed for several destructive fires in recent years.Firefighters kept a close watch on shifting embers throughout the night, hoping to protect neighborhoods, CBS News correspondent Jonathan Vigliotti reports. Irvine residents had to evacuate after the fire broke out early Monday while a few miles away another blaze, the Blue Ridge Fire, sent people fleeing from the Yorba Linda area. One home was reported damaged. Forecasts call for Santa Ana winds topping 50 mph at times over much of Southern California with some of the strongest gusts howling through Orange County, where the major fires are. The winds were so strong Monday that firefighters had to ground their aircraft for much of the day in Irvine, though they got back up by the late afternoon. The winds toppled big rigs as firefighters appeared to struggle to stay on their feet, Vigliotti reported. At its peak, PG&E cut power to about 345,000 customers - an estimated 1 million people - in 34 counties. The nation's largest utility said it had restored power to more than 150,000 customers by Monday evening with electricity coming back at the other homes and buildings by Tuesday night after crews do inspections to make repairs and ensure equipment is safe.

As Colorado wildfires burn, fears that climate change is causing "multi-level emergency" mount -- The record-breaking forest fires burning in Colorado even as winter sets in are the latest sign climate warming is hitting the West hard, causing scientists to up their rhetoric and warn it is past time to move beyond planning and start aggressively acting.  “We’ve got to get motivated and stop turning the thermostat up. That is urgent, not a sci-fi thing. It is us turning up the thermostat. It does not readily turn down. The farther we turn it up, the worse it will get,” said Scott Denning, a Colorado State University atmospheric scientist.Colorado and the West face more hot days and temperatures will shoot higher, scientists say. The rising heat is depleting water and drying soil across the Colorado River Basin and other river basins.  Last week, federal authorities classified 97% of Colorado in severe to exceptional drought.Mega-fires including 2020’s Cameron Peak, East Troublesome and Pine Gulch are burning hotter and longer, with record destruction this year of 700,000 acres in Colorado and 6 million around the West. The smoke that exposed tens of millions of people to heavy particulates, health researchers say, will pose an even greater risk to public health in years to come.“We’re choking ourselves to death,” Commerce City teacher Renee Chacon, 35, concluded after closing windows against the latest billowing gray-brown barrage. Her sons suffer headaches and she went to a doctor with lethargy. Signs that the effects of climate warming are here and hurting Coloradans have kindled urgency within government agencies. Colorado Energy Office director Will Toor, at a recent climate forum, described “very significant impacts happening much earlier than expected.” Colorado Department of Natural Resources director Dan Gibbs, in an interview, said warming impacts over the next 30 years look “very troubling and, frankly, terrifying.”Politicians including presidential candidate Joe Biden and Senate hopeful John Hickenlooper now refer to “an existential threat” and call for a shift off the fossil fuels they’ve supported in the past.Yet efforts to help residents cope, and even draw down heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by re-greening farmland and cities, have barely begun. A Denver Post examination found a $4.2 billion backlog of forestry work identified by the Colorado State Forest Service as critical to protect people and property from fires. Owners of destroyed homes still typically rebuild on site, despite increased erosion and flooding. More people moving into fire-prone forests between now and 2040 likely will triple the size of a high-risk interface zone, according to a forest service report scheduled for publication next month.

 'Ghost Forests' Are an Eerie Sign of Sea-Level Rise (Yale podcast) Along the Atlantic coast, ghost forests provide haunting signs of sea-level rise. These stands of bleached and broken tree trunks are all that remain after salty water inundates a forest.Matt Kirwan is with the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. He says ghost forests are not a new phenomenon, but they're moving inland faster as seas rise."Eventually they'll fall apart and become stumps surrounded by marshland," he says. "And so when you see a ghost forest now, you're seeing where the marsh will be in the future."Marshes are valuable ecosystems, so in some ways, that's positive."Ghost forests are a surprising indicator of ecological resilience in coastal systems," Kirwan says. "They mark how marshes naturally migrate in response to sea-level rise."But that migration comes at a cost."Places that people have lived for hundreds of years are becoming too wet and too salty to grow crops on, in some cases," Kirwan says. "And of course, the forest resources are being lost. And in some cases, people are forced to move from their homes as the land becomes too flooded."So ghost forests have become eerie symbols of rapid change.

Trump to Remove Protections for Tongass National Forest, the 'Lungs of North America' - The Trump administration formalized its intention to open up Alaska's pristine Tongass National Forest, an intact temperate rainforest, to logging and development, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday.The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) first announced its intention to lift the forest's Roadless Rule last month, but it had to wait 30 days before entering its final decision into the federal register. The pre-publicationnotice posted Wednesday will enter the federal register Thursday and make it legal for companies to build roads and harvest timber from 9.3 million acres of the forest."While tropical rainforests are the lungs of the planet, the Tongass is the lungs of North America," Dominick DellaSala, chief scientist with the Earth Island Institute's Wild Heritage project, told The Washington Post. "It's America's last climate sanctuary."The Tongass National Forest is home to centuries-old western hemlock, cedar, and Sitka spruce trees. The forest teems with life and is noted for its rich biodiversity, including the largest-known concentration of bald eagles, according to The Guardian."The decision to rollback the Roadless Rule on the Tongass was made in spite of, not in support of, Southeast Alaskans and our communities," Southeast Alaska Conservation Council Executive Director Meredith Trainor said in a statement. "In making this decision, the Trump Administration and the sham rulemaking process they undertook in our region ignored economic realities, environmental imperatives, and worst of all, the will of the people who actually live here." In fact, in the public comment period, 96 percent of the comments were in favor of keeping the rule in place, according to The Guardian. The lifting of the rule also ignores the resolutions from six southeast Alaska tribes and six nearby city councils opposed to lifting protections.The AP reported that a large portion of the roadless areas are wildlife habitats, as well as ice fields and glaciers "that exist nowhere else in the National Forest system," according to the U.S. Forest Service. And yet, the USDA insists that the move to lift the Roadless Rule from the forest "can be made without major adverse impacts to the recreation, tourism, and fishing industries, while providing benefits to the timber and mining industries, increasing opportunities for community infrastructure, and eliminating unnecessary regulations," according to the AP.

 Earthquake off Turkey and Greece kills at least 26 – CNN ( CNN)At least 26 people were killed in Turkey and Greece when a powerful earthquake hit the Aegean Sea on Friday afternoon, sending buildings crashing down and triggering what authorities have called a "mini tsunami."Officials said 24 people were killed in coastal areas in Turkey's west, while two teenagers -- a boy and a girl -- died on the Greek island of Samos after a wall collapsed on them.In Turkey, at least 20 buildings in the city of Izmir alone were destroyed, Mayor Tunc Soyer told CNN Turk. Images showed vehicles crushed under the buildings and people digging through the rubble in search of survivors.At least 804 people have been injured in Turkey, said the country's disaster agency. Dozens were saved by rescue teams using diggers and helicopters to search for survivors.A total of 196 aftershocks have been recorded, 23 of which were over 4.0 magnitude, the agency added. Search and rescue operations continue in 17 buildings, four of which have collapsed, said Murat Kurum, Turkey's Environment and Urbanization Minister.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that among Turkey's injured, five people are being operated on and eight are in intensive careTV footage showed water flooding through the streets of Cesme and Seferihisar in parts of Turkey's wider Izmir province, as well as on the Greek island of Samos, in what officials described as a "mini tsunami." No tsunami warnings were issued. Bdil Gungor, who works as a journalist and runs a guesthouse in the Turkish town of Siğacik in Izmir province, said that the area was damaged more by the force of the water than the quake itself.Her guesthouse, in a 100-year-old building, had been inundated and fish were swimming inside it, she said. Shops in town have also been flooded and their goods damaged."Everybody is calm but shocked and we're wondering what will happen, if there's a second tsunami coming or not," Gungor said.

Sleeping giant' Arctic methane deposits starting to release, scientists find - n Scientists have found evidence that frozen methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean – known as the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle” – have started to be released over a large area of the continental slope off the East Siberian coast, the Guardian can reveal. High levels of the potent greenhouse gas have been detected down to a depth of 350 metres in the Laptev Sea near Russia, prompting concern among researchers that a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered that could accelerate the pace of global heating. The slope sediments in the Arctic contain a huge quantity of frozen methane and other gases – known as hydrates. Methane has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The United States Geological Survey has previously listed Arctic hydrate destabilisation as one of four most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change. The international team onboard the Russian research ship R/V Akademik Keldysh said most of the bubbles were currently dissolving in the water but methane levels at the surface were four to eight times what would normally be expected and this was venting into the atmosphere. “At this moment, there is unlikely to be any major impact on global warming, but the point is that this process has now been triggered. This East Siberian slope methane hydrate system has been perturbed and the process will be ongoing,” said the Swedish scientist Örjan Gustafsson, of Stockholm University, in a satellite call from the vessel. The scientists – who are part of a multi-year International Shelf Study Expedition – stressed their findings were preliminary. The scale of methane releases will not be confirmed until they return, analyse the data and have their studies published in a peer-reviewed journal. But the discovery of potentially destabilised slope frozen methane raises concerns that a new tipping point has been reached that could increase the speed of global heating.

Scientists Say Methane Release Is Starting in Arctic Ocean. How Concerned Should We Be? - Arctic Ocean sediments are full of frozen gases known as hydrates, and scientists have long been concerned about what will happen when and if the climate crisis induces them to thaw. That is because one of them ismethane, a greenhouse gas that has 80 times the warming impact of carbon dioxide over a 20 year period. In fact, the U.S. Geological Survey has listed Arctic hydrate destabilization as one of the four most serious triggers for even more rapid climate change.Now, scientists onboard the Russian research ship R/V Akademik Keldysh have told The Guardian that there is evidence this destabilization has already begun off Siberia's eastern coast."The discovery of actively releasing shelf slope hydrates is very important and unknown until now," vessel chief scientist Igor Semiletov of the Russian Academy of Sciences told The Guardian. "This is a new page."The international team of 60 researchers said Tuesday they were the first to observe methane release over a wide area of the continental slope off of Eastern Siberia. They observed bubbles being released from oceansediment at six different observation points over a 150 kilometer (approximately 93 miles) by 10 kilometer (approximately 6 miles) stretch of the slope. They also recorded methane concentrations of as much as 1,600 nanomoles per liter at a depth of around 300 meters (approximately 984 feet) on the slope of the Laptev Sea. That's 400 times higher a concentration than would be expected in normal circumstances.  While the methane bubbles are still being absorbed by the ocean, the researchers did measure methane concentrations near the surface that were four to eight times higher than normal, and said this methane would make it into the atmosphere. "At this moment, there is unlikely to be any major impact on global warming, but the point is that this process has now been triggered. This East Siberian slope methane hydrate system has been perturbed and the process will be ongoing," Swedish scientist Örjan Gustafsso of Stockholm University told The Guardian. This isn't the first alarming find that Semitelov's expedition has turned up. Last fall, they released images of a methane fountain bubbling up from the floor of the East Siberian Sea, The Moscow Times reported. However, the researchers urged caution in responding to their findings. They stressed that they needed to be confirmed once the expedition is over and the data can be reviewed and written up in a peer reviewed journal. Scientists who were not involved with the study responded with skepticism to The Guardian story, The Week reported. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather pointed to a major study of global methane emissions that relied on both satellite data and on-site observations and found that there was no increase in Arctic Ocean methane emissions as of 2017.

The Ozone Hole Over Antarctica Has Grown Much Deeper And Wider in 2020 The hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica has expanded to one of its greatest recorded sizes in recent years.In 2019, scientists revealed that the Antarctic ozone hole had hit its smallest annual peak since tracking began in 1982, but the 2020 update on this atmospheric anomaly – like other things this year – brings a sobering perspective."Our observations show that the 2020 ozone hole has grown rapidly since mid-August, and covers most of the Antarctic continent – with its size well above average," explains project manager Diego Loyola from the German Aerospace Center.New measurements from the European Space Agency's Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite show that the ozone hole reached its maximum size of around 25 million square kilometres (about 9.6 million square miles) on 2 October this year.That puts it in about the same ballpark as 2018 and 2015's ozone holes, which respectively recorded peaks of 22.9 and 25.6 million square kilometres."There is much variability in how far ozone hole events develop each year,"says atmospheric scientist Vincent-Henri Peuch from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. "The 2020 ozone hole resembles the one from 2018, which also was a quite large hole, and is definitely in the upper part of the pack of the last 15 years or so."As well as fluctuating from year to year, the ozone hole over Antarctica also shrinks and grows annually, with ozone concentrations inside the hole depleting when temperatures in the stratosphere become colder.When this happens - specifically, when polar stratosphere clouds form at temperatures below –78°C (–108.4°F) - chemical reactions destroy ozone molecules in the presence of solar radiation. "With the sunlight returning to the South Pole in the last weeks, we saw continued ozone depletion over the area," Peuch says. While we now know that human action on this front is helping us to fix the Antarctic ozone hole, the ongoing fluctuations from year to year show that the healing process will be long. A 2018 assessment by the World Meteorological Organisation found that ozone concentrations above Antarctica would return to relatively normal pre-1980s levels by about 2060. To realise that goal, we have to stick to the protocol and ride out the bumps, like the one we're seeing this year.

NASA Detects More Water and Ice on the Moon Than Previously Thought -A pair of studies released Monday confirmed not only the presence of water and ice on the moon, but that it is more abundant than scientists previously thought. Those twin discoveries boost the prospect of a sustainable lunar base that could harvest the moon's resources to help sustain itself, according to the BBC.Both studies were printed in Nature Astronomy. In the first study, a NASA telescope affixed to the fuselage of a 747 airplane flying at altitudes up to 45,000 feet detected the presence of water in a large crater visible from Earth. The telescope, called the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA), zeroed in on the moon's surface with remarkable clarity to determine the molecular composition of the moon's face, according to a NASA statement.Images from SOFIA allowed scientists to determine that a large portion of the hydrogen and oxygen combination they had previously noticed on a sunlit area of the moon are water, according to The New York Times."This discovery reveals that water might be distributed across the lunar surface and not limited to the cold shadowed places near the lunar poles," Paul Hertz, the director of NASA's astrophysics division, said during a news conference on Monday, as The New York Times reported. In the second study, the NASA scientists suggest that water might be more widespread than they initially thought since it is likely trapped in many of the moon's shadowy surfaces, according to The Verge. Those cold areas of the moon possibly shelter water in an area over 15,000 square miles, according to the study. The discovery is a boon to a potential lunar base since taking water to space is pricey, costing thousands of dollars per gallon. The discovery of water on the moon may mean that future astronauts will be able to hydrate and refuel their rockets, as The Washington Post reported. It also means they would be able to water plants, according to The Verge. "Anytime we don't need to pack water for our trip, we have an opportunity to take other useful items with us,"  Previous discoveries of water were found in craters in the moon's perpetually dark south. Temperatures there reach about -400 degrees Fahrenheit, making it impossible to reach the water with modern technology.

Visualizing All Of Earth's Satellites: Who Owns Our Orbit?  (infographics, tables) For centuries, humans have looked to space and the stars for answers. The fascination is more than philosophical - it’s coupled with the need to solve problems here on Earth.Today, as Visual Capitalist's Therese Wood details below, there are seemingly countless benefits and applications of space technology. Satellites, for instance, are becoming critical for everything from internet connectivity and precision agriculture, to border security and archaeological study. Right now, there are nearly 6,000 satellites circling our tiny planet. About 60% of those are defunct satellites - space junk - and roughly 40% are operational.As highlighted in the chart above, The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), determined that 2,666 operational satellites circled the globe in April of 2020.Over the coming decade, it’s estimated by Euroconsult that 990 satellites will be launched every year. This means by 2028, there could be 15,000 satellites in the skies.With SpaceX’s planned Starlink constellation of 12,000 satellites and Amazon’s proposed constellation in the works, the new space race continues its acceleration. Let’s take a closer look at who operates those satellites and how they apply their technology.

Exclusive: GM, Ford knew about climate change 50 years ago -- Monday, October 26, 2020 - Scientists at two of America's biggest automakers knew as early as the 1960s that car emissions caused climate change, a monthslong investigation by E&E News has found. The discoveries by General Motors and Ford Motor Co. preceded decades of political lobbying by the two car giants that undermined global attempts to reduce emissions while stalling U.S. efforts to make vehicles cleaner. Researchers at both automakers found strong evidence in the 1960s and '70s that human activity was warming the Earth. A primary culprit was the burning of fossil fuels, which released large quantities of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide that could trigger melting of polar ice sheets and other dire consequences. A GM scientist presented her findings to at least three high-level executives at the company, including a former chairman and CEO. It's unclear whether similar warnings reached the top brass at Ford. But in the following decades, both manufacturers largely failed to act on the knowledge that their products were heating the planet. Instead of shifting their business models away from fossil fuels, the companies invested heavily in gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. At the same time, the two carmakers privately donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to groups that cast doubt on the scientific consensus on global warming. It wasn't until 1996 that GM produced its first commercial electric vehicle, called the EV1. Ford released a compact electric pickup truck in 1998. More than 50 years after the automakers learned about climate change, the transportation sector is the leading source of planet-warming pollution in the United States. Cars and trucks account for the bulk of those emissions. This investigation is based on nearly five months of reporting by E&E News, including more than two dozen interviews with former GM and Ford employees, retired auto industry executives, academics, and environmentalists. Many of these details have not previously been reported. E&E News obtained hundreds of pages of documents on GM's corporate history from the General Motors Heritage Center and Wayne State University in Detroit. Documents on Ford's climate research were unearthed by the Center for International Environmental Law. The Climate Investigations Center provided additional material on both manufacturers. The investigation reveals striking parallels between two of the country's biggest automakers and Exxon Mobil Corp., one of the world's largest publicly traded oil and gas companies. Exxon privately knew about climate change in the late 1970s but publicly denied the scientific consensus for decades, according to 2015 reporting by InsideClimate News and the Los Angeles Times that spawned the hashtag #ExxonKnew and fueled a wave of climate litigation against the oil major. The findings by E&E News reveal that GM and Ford were "deeply and actively engaged" since the 1960s in understanding how their cars affected the climate, said Carroll Muffett, president and CEO of the Center for International Environmental Law. "We also know that certainly by the 1980s and 1990s, the auto industry was involved in efforts to undermine climate science and stop progress to address climate change," Muffett said. "But a different path was available."

Ford, GM scientists knew in 1960s that emissions caused climate change: report - Ford and General Motors have known about the effects of vehicular emissions on climate change since as early as the 1960s, E&E Newsreported Monday.Scientists at the companies made findings on the human and fossil fuel impacts of climate change in the 1960s and 1970s. At GM, the evidence was presented to at least three top executives, including a former chairman and CEO, according to an investigation by the news outlet.Still, the companies lobbied for decades against attempts to reduce emissions and did not move their businesses away from vehicles that were fossil fuel intensive during that period.Asked about the E&E News article, GM spokesman James Cain detailed actions the company is taking to address climate change, from supporting “modernizing” vehicle standards and working to power its manufacturing by 100 percent renewable energy by 2040. “General Motors takes the challenge of climate change seriously and recognizes the role of the transportation sector in contributing to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,” Cain said in an email to The Hill.“Our global commitment to improving fuel economy, reducing emissions and an all-electric, zero-emissions future is unwavering, regardless of the prevailing emissions standards in any region in which we operate,” he added. Ford spokesman John Cangany said in a statement that the company knows "that climate change is real and we are addressing it right now through meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, investment in electric vehicles and sustainable manufacturing."InsideClimate News and the Los Angeles Times in 2015 similarly reported that Exxon Mobil Corp. had long known the effect of fossil fuel emissions. That reporting has been followed by a series of lawsuits against the company. Exxon Mobil has called the lawsuits "baseless and without merit."In the 1960s, both Ford and GM employed scientists who had researched climate change, E&E reported.One researcher at GM was Ruth Annette Gabriel Reck, who told the news outlet that she presented her findings to Roger Bonham Smith, who became chairman and CEO of GM in 1981, and his successor Robert "Bob" Stempel. "We would sit down and they would look at the papers, and I would explain to them what they were looking at," she said. "They were aware of things that were going on."Meanwhile, both companies fought against policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. They were part of the Global Climate Coalition, which opposed emissions reductions attempts during the  George H.W. Bush administration, according to a list of members published by the Climate Investigations Center.

As Election Nears, Trump Makes a Final Push Against Climate Science - The New York Times — The Trump administration has recently removed the chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the nation’s premier scientific agency, installed new political staff who have questioned accepted facts about climate change and imposed stricter controls on communications at the agency.The moves threaten to stifle a major source of objective United States government information about climate change that underpins federal rules on greenhouse gas emissions and offer an indication of the direction the agency will take if President Trump wins re-election.An early sign of the shift came last month, when Erik Noble, a former White House policy adviser who had just been appointed NOAA’s chief of staff, removed Craig McLean, the agency’s acting chief scientist.Mr. McLean had sent some of the new political appointees a message that asked them to acknowledge the agency’s scientific integrity policy, which prohibits manipulating research or presenting ideologically driven findings.The request prompted a sharp response from Dr. Noble. “Respectfully, by what authority are you sending this to me?” he wrote, according to a person who received a copy of the exchange after it was circulated within NOAA.Mr. McLean answered that his role as acting chief scientist made him responsible for ensuring that the agency’s rules on scientific integrity were followed.The following morning, Dr. Noble responded. “You no longer serve as the acting chief scientist for NOAA,” he informed Mr. McLean, adding that a new chief scientist had already been appointed. “Thank you for your service.”It was not the first time NOAA had drawn the administration’s attention. Last year, the agency’s weather forecasters came under pressure for contradicting Mr. Trump’s false statements about the path of Hurricane Dorian.But in an administration where even uttering the words “climate change” is dangerous, NOAA has, so far, remained remarkably independent in its ability to conduct research about and publicly discuss changes to the Earth’s climate. It also still maintains numerous public websites that declare, in direct opposition to Mr. Trump, that climate change is occurring, is overwhelmingly caused by humans, and presents a serious threat to the United States.Replacing Mr. McLean, who remains at the agency, was Ryan Maue, a former researcher for the libertarian Cato Institute who has criticized climate scientists for what he has called unnecessarily dire predictions.Dr. Maue, a research meteorologist, and Dr. Noble were joined at NOAA by David Legates, a professor at the University of Delaware’s geography department who has questioned human-caused global warming. Dr. Legates was appointed to the position of deputy assistant secretary, a role that did not previously exist.Neil Jacobs, the NOAA administrator, was not involved in the hirings, according to two people familiar with the selection process.The agency did not respond to requests for comment and a request to make the new officials available for an interview.

War on NOAA? A Climate Denier’s Arrival Raises Fears the Agency's Climate Mission Is Under Attack --In the shadow of the Trump administration's dismissal of climate change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has continued to press on with its work measuring the breadth and pace of the climate crisis. So far in 2020, NOAA recorded the nation's hottest summer on record, the second-lowestArctic sea ice minimum and the greatest number of hurricanes hitting the U.S. coast since 1916. NOAA led a team that showed global warming is detectable at the bottom of the ocean. It funded work revealing the climate risks of coastal forest destruction. It helped develop a breakthrough method of measuring fossil fuel emissions in ambient air. But climate scientists are bracing for the potential disruption of NOAA's climate work with the appointment of two prominent climate science deniers and a former campaign official for President Donald Trump to top agency positions this fall.  One of the new hires, David Legates, a University of Delaware geography and climatology professor who works closely with anti-climate action advocacy groups like the Heartland Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute, has been especially critical of the agency that he will now help run. Dismissive of NOAA's data-gathering and models, Legates maintains there is no scientific consensus on the environmental hazard of carbon dioxide emissions. He is in a newly created top deputy position, where he will not face Senate confirmation, but will report directly to NOAA's administrator. "People are very alarmed and saddened about it, and it's spooking people on the inside," said Gretchen Goldman, research director for the Center for Science and Democracy at the Union of Concerned Scientists, which regularly surveys federal scientists on their perception of political interference. "We know from the scientific surveys that having a climate denier at the helm causes people in the agency to self-censor, even if they aren't told to change anything." The hiring of Legates and others comes just as NOAA is set to collaborate with more than a dozen other federal agencies on the next Congressionally mandated National Climate Assessment, due out in 2023. Work on the project kicked off in earnest on Oct. 15 when a call for authors was published in the Federal Register. The state-of-the-science synthesis of climate impacts and trends across the United States is meant to serve as a roadmap for policymakers.   Veterans of the process fear the new hires may presage a Trump administration effort to inject doubt about the scientific consensus into the climate assessment.  Foes of climate action hope that's the signal being sent.  "I hope it means that the administration, after three years of sitting on their hands, is actually going to reform the kind of junk science produced at NOAA," said Myron Ebell, a former Trump transition official who is energy and environment program director at the conservative think tank, the Competitive Enterprise Institute. "And I hope they will have a big impact on the way the next National Climate Assessment is put together."

Amy Coney Barrett: Over 70 Climate Journalists Challenge Nomination -  “Judge Coney Barrett has displayed a profound inability to understand the ecological crisis of our times, and in so doing she enables it.”

How Exxon Silences Staff Alarmed by the Climate Crisis, According to a Former Employee  - At a town hall meeting for Exxon employees earlier this year, one of the company’s trusted technical experts decided to raise the touchy subject of climate change. “Thank you for the opportunity to discuss this critical topic,” Enrique Rosero said during a Q&A at the event, according to a written version of his remarks. “The documented efforts of the industry lobby promoting obfuscation and denial were shortsighted and irresponsible, and our sponsorship of it, shameful. Yet, none of us here participated in those decisions.” The problem, as Rosero put it to the room, which included managers and executives, was the company’s unwillingness to move past the denial by taking measurable action to fix climate change. “We acknowledge the need to reduce our emissions, yet they are set to increase by at least 20 percent over the next five years,” he said. “In the end, wouldn’t you agree that this is a problem of behaviors and leadership—not science and technology?” Rosero said he saw some people nodding silently. But Tolu Ewherido, an Exxon vice president, responded, “I don’t hear a question in there,” according to an account in the Wall Street Journal. After that, according to Rosero, is when the backlash against him began. “There was an implication that I should have understood not to say anything,” he recently told VICE News. Each year, Exxon employees receive a ranking which helps determine their salary and job security at the company. Rosero provided VICE News documents showing that in previous years he’d been ranked among the top-third of employees. This year seemed to be no different. After meeting with his supervisor in April, Rosero was informed that he’d been doing great work and would again receive a high ranking. But when he was told his official ranking in July, months after the town hall, Rosero was surprised to learn he’d been downgraded to the lowest possible score. He was given the option of going on a three-month “Performance Improvement Plan,” or PIP, during which he would have to do regular meetings with his supervisor and could be fired at any time. Or, Rosero could resign. He left the company voluntarily in late July.

The US Is Missing a Chance to Tackle Climate Crisis and Pandemic Relief Together – Alexis Goldstein -- The pandemic crisis has exacerbated existing inequalities and has been an abject lesson in what happens when nations don’t prepare in advance for catastrophe. It has also led many to draw the comparison between this health crisis and the ongoing climate crisis — and the growing and urgent need to tackle climate change now before it spirals out of control.  The U.S., which continues to lead the world in COVID-19 infections, has taken the opposite approach — rolling back environmental protections, including many during the pandemic, giving tax breaks to polluters and withdrawing from the Paris climate accord. Even the ostensibly politically independent Federal Reserve is over-investing in fossil fuels in one of its economic response programs. By contrast, the European Union (EU) is taking these dual crises seriously, combining its pandemic response with work to also blunt the coming climate crisis.  In September, the European Commission (EC) — the governing body of the European Union — announced a massive new green bond program. As a part of its ongoing pandemic recovery, this coming January the EC will sell bonds in order to raise €750 billion (or $857 billion USD). This EU Recovery Fund will distribute its funds among the countries and sectors in the EU most impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. About 30 percent (€225 billion) of the bonds they plan to sell will be sustainable green bonds. These bonds will back projects related to tackling climate change. This will not only make the EU the largest issuer of “green bonds,” it will effectively double the size of the international market for sustainable financial products — as the total of all the green securities sold globally last year was $274.2 billion according to Bloomberg. One of the economic rescue programs the Fed has launched during the pandemic is one that buys the corporate debt of companies. But more than 10 percent of the Fed’s bond purchases are fossil fuel companies, even though fossil fuel firms only employ 2 percent of all workers employed by firms in the S&P 1500 stock market index. This is in spite of the terrible financial track record oil and gas companies have, and their history of polluting communities of color across the U.S., such as Marathon Petroleum in Detroit.European central bankers, meanwhile, are considering moving in the opposite, future-forward direction — by asking whether central banks should pursue market neutrality at all, given their responsibility to boost green industries that will help ensure a livable world in the face of accelerating climate change. In a talk to the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative, Lagarde pointed out that financial markets have “not priced in the massive risk that is out there” on climate change, and as a result, asked if central banks should change their approach. Lagarde said central banks need to think about the “excessive risks” they may be taking by relying on the same markets that have failed to acknowledge the long-term costs of climate change.

Biden Pledges Ambitious Climate Action. Here’s What He Could Actually Do. - The New York Times --— Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s $2 trillion plan to fight global warming is the most ambitious climate policy proposed by a leading presidential candidate, a political lightning rod spotlighted on Thursday night when the Democratic nominee acknowledged during a debate that it would “transition” the country “from the oil industry.”But no one knows better than Mr. Biden, the former vice president, that it almost surely will not be enacted, even if his party secures the White House and the Senate. Thirty-six years in the Senate and the searing experience of watching the Obama administration’s less ambitious climate plan die a decade ago have taught him the art of the possible.Still, a President Biden could have real impact: solar panels and wind turbines spread across the country’s mountains and prairies, electric charging stations nearly as ubiquitous as gas stations and a gradual decrease in the nation’s planet-warming greenhouse pollution.“The oil industry pollutes significantly,” Mr. Biden said at the final presidential debate, adding, “it has to be replaced by renewable energy over time.” Mr. Biden’s advisers insist that climate change is not just a political slogan. And on Capitol Hill, his team is already strategizing with Democratic leaders on how they can realistically turn at least some of those proposals into law. “There are three things we have to do — climate, economic equality and democracy,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York, who would become the majority leader if his party wins control of the Senate. “All three are vital, and climate is not going to be the caboose.” If Mr. Biden wins, he will face a dilemma he knows well — so much to do, and so little time. As a newly inaugurated vice president, he and Barack Obama dove first into passing an economic recovery bill in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, then focused on the Affordable Care Act. By the time Congress moved to climate change, the White House’s political capital was exhausted.  Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2010 forced the House to approve complicated legislation to cap carbon emissions, but that “cap and trade” bill never even came to a vote in the Senate. Its passage in the House helped sweep Democrats from power months later.  If Mr. Biden wins the White House but Republicans hold Senate control, Mr. Biden’s loftiest climate pledges will certainly die.  In that scenario, “All Biden can try to do is cobble back together the Obama environmental agenda,” said Douglas Brinkley, a historian who focuses on presidents’ environmental legacies. That would include, he said, rejoining the international Paris accords — the agreement between nations to fight climate change, which President Trump is withdrawing from — and reinstating Obama-era climate regulations. And with a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, even that could be thwarted.

UN-linked plan charts US course to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 - A United Nations-linked initiative is offering what it bills as a possible road map for the U.S. to tackle climate change under a potential new administration. The Zero Carbon Action Plan (ZCAP), crafted by roughly 100 individuals spanning academia and think tanks, would help the U.S. reach the goals of the Paris Climate Accord and hit net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The research found that a transition to almost entirely clean sources of energy would only cost 0.4 percent more of the U.S.’s gross domestic product (GDP) than sticking with fossil fuels, while creating 2.5 million new jobs by midcentury. “For less than one-half of 1 percent of GDP, we can fundamentally shift to a clean energy foundation for our economy — and realize incalculable benefits,” the group said in a release. ZCAP’s analysis relies on modeling that attempts to find “technologically and economically sound options [that] fit within the institutional framework of the U.S. federal system.” “We needed to have a package that was sustainable from a scientific perspective, economically effective and efficient, and politically attractive and viable,” said Dan Esty, a professor at Yale University who took a leading role in crafting the policy. “I think we’ve achieved that.” The plan calls for reducing the carbon footprint of the electricity sector by 60 percent by 2030 and ratcheting up from there. But while the proposal would end the use of coal, it does not fully transition away from fossil fuels, citing a need to rely on natural gas to help with the intermittency of renewable sources. “For purposes of maintaining electricity system reliability, a substantial fleet of gas-fired power generators needs to remain in place in 2050, roughly comparable to today's level of capacity. However, these generators will run much less often than they do at present, comprising only a few percent of total electricity generation,” the report states. The plan comes as several other plans to reach net-zero emissions have been produced. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s plan also calls for net-zero emissions, but would reach 100 percent clean energy for the electric sector by 2035. Plans from Democrats on the Select Committee on the Climate Crisis in each chamber have also been released. But the ZCAP authors, some of whom have close connections to the Biden campaign, are hopeful their ideas might be considered by a future administration. The ZCAP plan, like others, calls for electrification of vehicles and public transit to reduce emissions from the transportation sector as well as other efforts to reduce the impact of buildings and industry while reimagining land use to both reduce carbon output and find new ways to store it. But it also lays out specific actions at every level of government that must be taken over the next year, even down to a more local level where decisions about infrastructure, building codes and land use are made.

Poll: NJ voters strongly support investing in clean energy as part of pandemic recovery - – By a margin of more than two to one, New Jersey voters support investing in renewable energy projects like wind and solar — rather than building gas pipelines — to promote recovery from the economic damage resulting from COVID-19, the latest ReThink Energy NJ poll finds. Asked which form of infrastructure to invest in to spur economic recovery, 62% prefer to “create jobs, improve our health by reducing pollution, and ultimately save consumers money,” through renewable energy projects, while 30% prefer to create jobs through pipelines that “ensure a reliable supply of inexpensive natural gas.” The results are consistent with significantly strong preference for clean energy across the board. For example, when asked which is the energy source “most important to New Jersey’s energy future,” 47% choose solar and only 21% pick gas. When support for offshore wind is included, 58% choose clean energy over fossil fuels. The findings comes from RENJ’s annual “Attitudes on Clean Energy” public opinion survey conducted by the Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll. “Despite facing unprecedented challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, voter support for clean energy hasn’t waned and, in some respects, has become even stronger. And, when given a choice to base the state’s economic recovery on renewables or pipelines, clean energy was the clear winner by a two to one margin,” said Tom Gilbert, campaign director, ReThink Energy NJ and New Jersey Conservation Foundation.

Williams Mullen cashes in with environmentally-driven clients while fighting against key carbon initiative - In old Richmond, the downtown law firms were regarded by many as the paragon of virtue, a place for a respectable career and collegial praise. But something has changed, and “Exhibit A” is the shocking conflict of interest displayed by Williams Mullen in both simultaneously suing the state to stop action on carbon pollution and representing clients like Facebook, Lyft and Altria who want and advocate for bold action on climate change.This law firm’s effort to keep Virginia out of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative comes on the heels of a legislative session in which the commonwealth took long overdue steps toward combating the climate crisis.For example, the newly enacted Virginia Clean Economy Act includes tangible, actionable implications that will reduce emissions in the energy sector by 30 percent over the next 10 years. Its passage marks a turning point where addressing climate change in Virginia has become a bipartisan issue — one on which leaders at the legislative and executive branches agree with environmental and business leaders that action is needed to protect people and property from a changing climate.Likewise, those same voices support joining RGGI because it will increase the commonwealth’s traction in our climate fight, providing a platform on which to further drive down emissions, while driving down costs, creating jobs and boosting local economies.Driving down emissions is important to consumers and big businesses alike. According to new research just out from George Mason University, 78 percent of Virginians are interested in how global warming is impacting their local community. For businesses, it’s not just because they care about the environment — it’s because they are seeing economic implications from climate-change-induced events like hurricanes, flooding and wildfires. Science and data are increasingly fueling a solid business case for addressing climate change because it’s impacting corporate bottom lines. As a result, companies are making internal commitments to be a part of the solution.

 New Report Shows Banks Loaned $2.6 Trillion Linked to Biodiversity Loss in 2019 -The world's largest financial institutions loaned more than $2.6 trillion in 2019 to sectors driving the climate crisis and wildlife destruction, according to a new report from advocacy organization portfolio.earth. For some perspective, portfolio.earth notes that $2.6 trillion is more than the entire GDP of Canada. The paper, Bankrolling Extinction, found that the world's largest banks funded an acceleration toward mass extinction in 2019 without trying to limit their impact on ecosystems, Reuters reported.The top 10 banks implicated are Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Mizuho Financial, Wells Fargo, BNP Paribas, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, HSBC, SMBC Group and Barclays, The Guardian reported.The authors of the report note that not only do the banks lack an internal system to limit, monitor or measure the impact of their loans on biodiversity, but the current financial system rules protect the banks from any consequences. To determine how much money adversely affected the natural world, the researchers matched the loans and underwriting services from 50 large investment banks to areas the United Nations has identified as driving biodiversity loss, The Guardian reported. The most threatening sectors are food and agriculture, forestry, mining, fossil fuels, infrastructure, tourism, transportation and logistics. For example, Bankrolling Extinction stressed the outsized role that industrial agriculture plays in biodiversity loss, especially when tropical forests in the Amazon and Asia are cleared to make way for cattle ranches and commodity crops.Some banks have responded to pressure from investors and limited investments in Arctic drilling, coal and new oil exploration, The Guardian reported."Banks are starting to realize that if they invest in sectors that cause climate change, that will hurt their returns," Liz Gallagher, director of portfolio.earth, told Reuters. "Banks need to understand that the same holds true for destroying biodiversity."

Sunrise Movement rallies youth vote to 'flip' Texas for Dems The progressive group promoting the Green New Deal is rallying turnout for Democratic candidates in an unlikely place — Texas, the nation's leading producer of fossil fuels.

Utility CEOs Contribute Personal Money To Help Republicans in 2020 (lists, graphics, et al) CEOs at some of the country’s largest utilities have spent hundreds of thousands of their own dollars this cycle to help Republicans maintain control of the U.S. Senate and to buoy Republicans’ electoral prospects in the House, according to an Energy and Policy Institute analysis of federal campaign contributions.Utility political action committees (PACs) have also contributed more to Republican candidates running for federal positions and to the PACs that spend millions of dollars on the GOP’s behalf, according to the analysis. The utility PACs contributed to Republican candidates and PACs over Democratic candidates and PACs by about a 4:3 ratio.The contributions come at a time when Democrats are looking to pass national energy and climate policy that seeks to cut greenhouse gas emissions from power companies. Joe Biden has promised as part of his campaign to invest $2 trillion in clean energy research and to put the country on a path that would achieve a carbon-free power sector by 2035, and ultimately reach economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050. While some of the Biden campaign’s climate proposals can be accomplished through executive orders, other policies would likely depend on Democratic control of the Senate and House of Representatives. Senate Republicans hold a three-seat majority and will have to defend 23 seats this election, while Democrats are up for re-election in 12 states. Utility CEOs and board chairs have contributed $499,550 to various PACs that are working to elect Republican Senate and House candidates, compared to $65,900 to Democratic PACs, an 8:1 ratio.

CAMPAIGN 2020: Forget Trump-Biden. Electricity hinges on these races -- Wednesday, October 28, 2020 -- While President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden get much of the attention, the fate of the U.S. electricity mix will hinge in part on a different set of candidates. Voters in 10 states are casting ballots for electric utility regulators, the industry's overlooked power players. Those states — from Arizona to Georgia to Montana — don't normally rely on selections by governors or lawmakers. They empower everyday people to decide who will represent them on utility commissions. Candidates may or may not have legal or utility backgrounds. The result: Oversight of a transition from coal to renewables, the construction of long-distance power lines, and the future of electricity rates are on the ballot, at least indirectly. Some voters won't make it past higher-profile races to select utility regulators on Nov. 3. Yet the outcomes will shape state energy landscapes for years, regardless of who occupies the White House. "A president can declare war. And every time there's a war, invariably, you know, our finest youth come back in body bags," said John Schwegmann, a former Louisiana utility regulator who is seeking to regain that role. "Now, the Public Service Commission, they're not making decisions of that magnitude. But they are making decisions that are damn important to every resident of the state." Utility commission names vary, though the idea is broadly the same when it comes to electricity: Oversee power providers and make sure their decisions and rates of return are in the public interest. Economic fallout from COVID-19 is bringing new challenges, as commissions grapple with how to ensure that customers keep their electricity if they are out of work and can't pay their bills. And issues around climate change and energy justice are creeping into commission debates — even though such topics don't fall under the traditional purview of those bodies. This month, E&E News reached out to candidates in 10 states where state utility commission elections are being held in 2020. That tally includes Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota. It doesn't include Mississippi, where there's no Public Service Commission election this fall, or the contest for a seat on the Railroad Commission of Texas, whose oil and gas focus is different.

COVID-19 may stunt electricity demand for years - — Electricity demand is unlikely to return to normal levels even after the development of a coronavirus vaccine, according to a new report by scientists from Columbia University.As government lockdowns to contain the pandemic ease, electricity use in the United States will likely remain 1.6 to 4 percent lower than it was in 2018, according to the report. "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented changes in the ways people interact and approach economic activities," the paper reads. "Electricity demand has declined and usage patterns have been altered, changes that could remain even after the pandemic ends."The scientists predict shifts in both residential and commercial power use, not unlike those that followed the 2008 financial crisis.In the decade after that event, power demand grew by .5 percent, compared with 1.7 percent in the decade prior, as residents and businesses alike took advantage of new energy efficiency and solar technology."Experience from the global financial crisis suggests that load is unlikely to immediately revert to previous levels following the impact of COVID-19, and that load growth may be further dampened," the report said.

CenterPoint Energy asks for natural gas rate increase for completed pipeline upgrades — CenterPoint Energy is seeking a review of its natural gas rates for Southwestern Indiana in hopes of recovering costs from recently completed pipeline upgrades. The petition for a base rate review was filed with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission on Friday. Continuation of the utility's energy efficiency programs through 2025 and a program providing gas bill reductions for income-eligible customers for the months December through May also is included in the request, CenterPoint officials said. If approved, the increase would not go into effect until late summer 2121 and will not apply to customer electric rates. An average residential gas customer in Southwestern Indiana could see an increase of about $15 per month on their bill. The utility, formerly Vectren, last asked for a rate increase in 2006, said Richard Leger, vice president of natural gas distribution for Indiana and Ohio. The filing marks completion of a seven-year, $240 million gas system improvement plan that began in 2013. CenterPoint's 3,200-mile pipeline network serves more than 113,000 customers in nine Southwestern Indiana counties. More than 300 miles of steel and cast-iron distribution mains were replaced with new plastic mains, said Natalie Hedde, CenterPoint spokeswoman. The majority of the costs associated with the upgrade were recovered in real-time as the work progressed, an arrangement approved by the IURC following state law. Hedde said the petition filed Friday is for recovering the remaining 20 percent of the costs. "What we are recovering is a much smaller amount than we would otherwise," she said. Leger said the efficiency programs included in the rate review request have since 2013 enough natural gas to heat 46,000 homes. That is equivalent to about a 195,000 metric ton reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, he said. In addition, Leger said the pipeline upgrades have resulted in a 36 percent reduction of methane emissions.

New York State Must End Tax Breaks for Fossil Fuels | NRDC - Over the past several months, millions of people all across this country—from the heartland to the sea—have experienced the destruction of the climate crisis firsthand. People have lost their homes, businesses, and tragically, even loved ones. In the midst of a respiratory pandemic, they are struggling to breathe as smoke engulfs their communities. They are watching the floodwaters rise. They’re anxiously checking the weather and hoping they are out of the path of the next big storm. This is climate change. The impacts are here, and they’re only going to get worse if we don’t take swift, bold action. The fossil fuel industry is the primary source of harmful greenhouse gas emissions. So one place to start, to protect our planet, is to stop building or expanding fossil fuel infrastructure. Another place is to stop subsidizing this reckless industry. Every year, New York State spends $1.6 billion of taxpayer money on benefits for the oil and gas industry—the very industry that fuels the climate crisis. Yes, 1.6 billion with a “B.” This money is distributed in the form of outright tax breaks, credits, subsidies, and refunds that support all facets of the oil and gas industry, from fuel production to transportation to storage. The tax advantages that New York State doles out to the industry are impossible to justify, especially today, given the depleted state resources during the current economic downturn and the increasing ferocity of the climate crisis. These tax breaks are expensive. They’re unnecessary, and counterintuitively, only serve to prop up the very industry driving us into climate catastrophe—an industry that New York State is actively fighting against through the most aggressive climate law in the nation. New York State Senator Liz Krueger has introduced a bill that directly tackles the problem of New York’s continued subsidizing of the fossil fuel industry. The bill (S.2649C) requires the Governor, in consultation with the State Energy Planning Board—which oversees New York’s plan to build a clean energy system—to review all fossil fuel-related tax expenditures in New York State. It also requires the Governor and this Energy Planning Board to evaluate whether those tax breaks align with New York’s nation-leading climate goals.  Importantly, this report will make formal recommendations on current tax policy—including the modification or outright repeal of specific tax programs that benefit oil and gas companies. The bill takes it a step further, setting a five-year sunset period for all current and future fossil fuel-related tax expenditures. That means that within five years of the bill passing, all existing and future tax breaks to the fossil fuel industry will expire.

Green Power to Draw $11 Trillion Investment by 2050: BNEF - Green power is set to draw around $11 trillion of investment in the coming decades as the cost of renewables plummets and more of the world’s energy comes from electricity.That’s the latest analysis from BloombergNEF in its annual New Energy Outlook report. It’s further evidence of how cheap renewable power sources will continue to push aside fossil fuels in the energy mix.Despite the massive sum, BNEF said the pace of building out new renewables will need to increase further to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The projected increases in renewable energy and battery technology -- wind and solar will grow to 56% of global electricity in 2050 -- are set to cause emissions to peak in 2027 and then fall 0.7% annually until 2050, BNEF said. That would lead to a warming of 3.3 degrees Celsius by 2100, well short of the 6% annual emissions reduction needed to keep warming below 2 degrees and the 10% reduction required to achieve 1.5 degrees of warming.“The next ten years will be crucial for the energy transition,” Jon Moore, BNEF’s chief executive officer, said citing accelerated deployment of wind and solar and faster consumer uptake in electric vehicles as some of the crucial areas over that period. The only fossil fuel to increase its share of demand over the coming years will be gas. That’s largely driven by its use in heavy industry and to heat buildings. A key reason for the growth of gas to warm buildings is the weak economic argument for using heat pumps. BNEF doesn’t see cost parity with gas boilers until 2040. In the U.S., an abundance of cheap gas will delay the energy transition, but renewable power will still overtake the fuel by 2041. The future of oil demand will be shaped by the uptake of electric vehicles. BNEF sees primary oil consumption peaking in 2035 and then gradually declining.  Meanwhile, the thirst for oil in road transport tops out in 2031, according to BNEF. The fall will be sped up by EVs reaching price parity with traditional engines before 2025, at which point people will start buying plug-in cars at a faster rate, offsetting oil’s growth from aviation, shipping and petrochemicals. By 2050, some 65% of all passenger-vehicle kilometers will be made in electric vehicles. The current fleet of EVs is displacing 1 million barrels of oil a day.

Clean energy, infrastructure plan could bring 489,000 jobs to Ohio, Pa. - Farm and Dairy - A plan to revitalize the Ohio River Valley could bring nearly half a million jobs to Ohio and Pennsylvania over the next 10 years, according to new reports by an economic research group. Of those, more than 87,000 jobs would be in agriculture and land restoration and 233,000 in clean energy. ReImagine Appalachia asked The University of Massachusetts Amherst’s Political Economy Research Institute, or PERI, to assess what its plan to invest in clean energy, manufacturing, infrastructure, land restoration and agriculture would mean for the region in terms of jobs and economic impact. Hundreds of thousands jobs would be created, but it would require billions of dollars in federal funds to make them happen and about 28,000 workers in fossil fuels-based industries would likely lose their jobs as the industry contracted, the reports found. The institute released its full report on Ohio and a preliminary report on Pennsylvania during a press conference Oct. 20. A report on West Virginia impact is forthcoming.“These are short term infrastructure jobs that will put people back to work, getting them off the COVID bench, so to speak, while also laying the foundation for a more sustainable Appalachia going forward,” said Amanda Woodrum, a senior researcher with Policy Matters Ohio, a non-profit policy research institute. ReImagine Appalachia’s plan, released in July, lays out how to build and modernize infrastructure, repair the land and create jobs through public investment in Appalachia’s Ohio River Valley. Reimagine Appalachia is a coalition of more than 75 grassroots organizations from Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky. It calls for, among other things, encouraging regenerative agriculture practices, reviving the Civilian Conservation Corps, increasing clean energy use, expanding broadband, building a sustainable transportation system and creating “good union jobs.” Woodrum said the PERI reports operate under the assumption that there would be some sort of national climate change legislation or a federal stimulus package to invest federal dollars into the plan. Without that, none of this happens. The Ohio report budgeted $28.4 billion per year for investments in clean energy, manufacturing, energy efficiency upgrades and public infrastructure. That includes $3.5 billion a year to agriculture and land restoration, which would lead to 33,950 jobs. That includes regenerative agriculture, farmland conservation and plugging orphaned oil and gas wells. Those figures are for direct and indirect jobs that take place on site or within the supply chain, said Robert Pollin, one of the report’s authors. The overall investment in Pennsylvania would be about $34.3 billion per year. That includes $4.1 billion per year to create 34,480 jobs in land restoration and agriculture.

Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley: Ram to make electric pickup --  Get ready for an electric Ram pickup.Fiat Chrysler Automobiles CEO Mike Manley confirmed on Wednesday that Ram will join the rush to produce an electric truck, an area that promises robust competition with Ford, General Motors, Tesla, Rivian and Lordstown Motors already planning to launch their own models. Manley didn't provide any details, but his announcement during the company's third-quarter earnings conference call provided clarity to an area of intense speculation.“I do see that there will be an electrified Ram pickup in the marketplace, and I would ask you just to stay tuned for a little while, and we’ll tell you exactly when that will be," Manley said in answering an analyst's question on the topic.That statement highlights the pressure FCA is under to get an electric offering into the highly profitable pickup segment, an area crucial to the fortunes of the Detroit Three.Just three months ago, Manley was less specific.“Obviously, pickup trucks is a key franchise for us, and we’re not going to sit on the sideline if there is a danger that our position gets diluted going forward,” he said during the second-quarter earnings call. The news from Manley came in the same week GM announced a more than $100,000 price tag for its GMC Hummer electric pickup. Ford recently said it would build a new plant to produce an electric F-150.

When Going Green Backfires: Eco-Friendly Car Wiring in Newer Cars Apparently Attracts Rats  - When my father-in-law's beloved Volvo began running roughly, he brought it into the shop. The technicians discovered rats had been chewing through the wiring. This puzzled my father-in-law, as over the years he'd parked other cars in his driveway, and none of them had attracted rats to the wiring; why the Volvo? He subsequently learned that Volvo had switched over to an eco-friendly, biodegrable wire coating made from soy. As it turns out, this soy coating is apparently quite tasty to rodents. A Forbes article on the subject reveals that some owners of late-model cars made by Volvo, Honda, Mazda and Toyota have experienced the same problem. "The common denominator appears to be soy," the article states, noting that lawsuits have been filed. "Alas, no green deed goes unpunished."The article reveals that owners of the affected vehicles have been taking matters into their own hands:"[Volvo owner] JoAnn conducted an exhaustive Google search and discovered a new rat repellent: Coyote urine. She bought a supply of the Coyote formula from Home Depot for $24 -- plus shipping. Every night, JoAnn pours a little coyote piss around her tires. 'I dot my driveway with some too,' she says. She also places a Coyote urine-soaked sponge inside a tin pan near the car. She's not sure it's working yet and does not want to take her car in for any more repairs until she's rid of the rats once and for all." Any manufacturers reading this: Please consider my wife's suggestion, which is to offer in-car snakes as an option.

Exports of Used Cars Are a Pollution Problem, U.N. Warns - The New York Times— In recent decades, the United States and Europe have gone to considerable lengths to mandate cleaner, more efficient cars at home. But at the same time, they are shipping millions of their oldest and worst-polluting vehicles to poorer countries overseas in a largely unregulated trade that now poses serious health and environmental hazards, the United Nations warned on Monday. The report, by the United Nations Environment Program, is the most detailed look yet at the global trade in secondhand cars, which has historically attracted little scrutiny. Between 2015 and 2018, the report found, the United States, the European Union and Japan exported 14 million used passenger cars abroad, with 70 percent ending up in low-income countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. In theory, this trade can be beneficial: Once older cars are no longer desirable to buyers in wealthy nations, they can have a second life as an affordable transportation option in other countries. In countries like Kenya and Nigeria, more than 90 percent of cars bought today are secondhand imports.But in practice, the report found, many of the cars exported to low-income countries don’t meet even minimum standards for air pollution and are often unsafe to drive. There are few rules in place to govern the quality of the vehicles. In the Netherlands, investigators recently determined, some exported cars have had their pollution controls removed and harvested for the valuable metals they contain, before being shipped abroad.“What we found is not a pretty sight,” said Rob De Jong, an author of the report and head of the United Nations Environment Program’s Sustainable Mobility Unit. “Most of these vehicles are very old, very dirty, very inefficient and unsafe.” If left unsupervised, the global trade in used vehicles could have stark consequences for both climate change and public health in the decades ahead, the report’s authors said.Today, there are about 1 billion cars on the road globally. That number is projected to double by 2050, with much of the growth coming from sales of secondhand vehicles in lower-income countries. Transportation already accounts for one-quarter of humanity’s carbon-dioxide emissions, which are rapidly heating the planet. And in many African cities, cars and trucks have become a dominant source of outdoor air pollution, which already kills more than 3 million people worldwide each year.  A few countries have started taking steps to crack down on the oldest and dirtiest used cars: Kenya, a rapidly growing market, now accepts only imports of vehicles younger than 8 years old, mainly from Japan. As a result, its vehicle fleet is about one-third more fuel-efficient than that of neighboring Uganda, which only last year set an age limit of 15 years for its imported cars.But such restrictions are rare.

 Company plans biorefinery for zero-emission heating oil in Maine -  A research and development company that has spent nearly 20 years honing new ways to turn woody waste into commercially viable energy and chemicals says it is close to building a biorefinery in Maine that will produce zero-emission heating oil. Biofine Developments Northeast Inc. of Bangor said it has formed a partnership with New Hampshire-based wholesale energy supplier Sprague Resources LP to help produce and market a patented biofuel made from 100 percent ethyl levulinate, an organic chemical compound often referred to as EL. Biofine said it hopes to finalize the site of its first biorefinery within the next month and be operating by 2023. The plant would process 100 tons a day of cellulose-based waste, primarily from paper and lumber mills, to make 3 million gallons of heating oil a year. It also would produce a side stream of renewable chemical byproducts that can be sold. Biofine is working with Treadwell Franklin Infrastructure Capital, a developer and financier involved in other Maine ventures, to help it bring the project to commercial scale and raise $70 million from private investors. Those partnerships signal what could be a major development for Maine’s energy and forest product markets, as well as a new and unexpected tool in the state’s ambitious quest to slash greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change. Policy makers in Maine and across the Northeast are pushing homes and businesses to dump boilers and furnaces that run on oil in favor of efficient electric units, namely heat pumps. But if a 100 percent concentration of Biofine’s fuel – known as EL100 – can be made at competitive prices and widely distributed in the region, heating oil could become a locally produced, renewable energy source.

California Shifts $100M in Behind-the-Meter Battery Incentives to Low-Income Communities - Amid massive wildfires, rolling blackouts and the continued threat of large-scale grid outages, California is shifting more than $100 million of its $1.2 billion Self-Generation Incentive Program budget to help low-income communities install about 100 megawatts of stalled behind-the-meter battery projects. The shift won’t tap the $613 million in SGIP funds earmarked for low-income and medically vulnerable customers at highest risk of fire-prevention power outages. Instead, Thursday’s decision from the California Public Utilities Commission will shift $108.5 million from SGIP’s under-subscribed large-scale storage budget. That money will help fund some of the $306 million in projects in low-income and disadvantaged communities that applied for SGIP funds this year, applications that outstripped the existing $53 million “equity budget” available to them.That equity budget offers incentives of 85 cents per watt-hour for installations of up to 30 kilowatts of power capacity, more than SGIP's general incentive categories — a critical piece to making projects cost-effective. More broadly, SGIP funds have fueled much of the more than 400 megawatts of commercial and residential behind-the-meter batteries installed in California to date, according to Wood Mackenzie data.     The California Energy Storage Alliance (CESA) and storage vendors including Stem have pushed to fund waitlisted projects on the grounds that many are equally at threat of fire-prevention outages as those deemed eligible for the larger $613 million budget.

ELECTRICITY: Supercooled Ill. power lines could redefine the grid -- Thursday, October 29, 2020 -- Several miles north of downtown Chicago, crews are installing underground superconducting electric power cables to test a strategy for protecting the region's power grid against natural or man-made disasters.

Seneca Nation calls on solar developer to ‘cease and desist’ following bone discovery  --– The President of the Seneca Nation of Indians is asking the solar developer behind the Horseshoe solar array in Caledonia and Rush to “cease and desist” all activity so it can investigate whether a bone recovered during an archaeological investigation survey is human.In an Oct. 22 letter to Invenergy, the Chicago-based developer behind the 1,400-acre, 600,000-panel solar proposal, Rickey L. Armstrong Sr., President of the Seneca Nation of Indians, said the bone was found during the company’s Phase 1B cultural resources survey.“The integrity of our sacred sites must be protected at the eternal resting places of our ancestors, not simply plowed over in the pursuit of economic gain,” said Armstrong in a subsequent statement on Facebook. “First and foremost, it must be determined whether the bone that was discovered on site is a human bone. If so, and our experts believe that is the case, there is a possibility that other human remains may be exposed if work continues.”As part of its obligations under the state’s Article 10 process, which governs how large scale energy generation facilities, like Horseshoe Solar, are developed in New York, Invenergy is required to conduct studies into the presence of historically significant sites in the areas where it would construct its solar array. Invenergy hired Panamerican Consultants, an archaeological investigations firm with an office in Buffalo, to conduct the surveys.“It has come to the Seneca Nation’s attention that there is a possible discrepancy in the identification of a bone found during a Phase 1B cultural resources survey,” Armstrong wrote in his letter. “...It has been reported that the consultant who arrived on scene determined the bone to be human, only to reclassify it as heron.” Armstrong wants the company to stop what it’s doing until the origins of the bone can be definitively established.

Southeast Nebraska wind turbine breaks a day after installed — A wind turbine manufacturer is investigating its turbines after a blade broke off in southeast Nebraska. A spokesperson for EDF Renewables says a turbine fault error occurred at turbine 89 of the Milligan 1 Wind Farm on Thursday morning. Photos sent to News Channel Nebraska show a broken turbine blade with half of the blade dangling off of the other half. A witness says the turbine is located near the intersection of Highways 15 and 41 in Saline County. The EDF spokesperson says there were no injuries and no collateral damage related to the blade failure. The site perimeter is secured while the turbine manufacturer investigates. As a precaution, 33 turbines from this manufacturer have been shut down until the investigation is completed. The witness says the blade broke less than 24 hours after it was installed. It was not exceptionally windy on Thursday.

 MidAmerican enlists wind turbine maker Vestas to find 'root cause' of 4 blade failures  -MidAmerican Energy says it is working with wind turbine manufacturer Vestas to understand the "root cause" of four blade failures that have forced it to temporarily idle some generation over the past year. Most recently, on Oct. 15, MidAmerican was forced to halt 46 turbines at its Beaver Creek wind farm in Greene County, Iowa, after a blade broke away and fell into a harvested field. It was the fourth blade failure the utility has experienced since last October, and the second in the last two months. All four of the failures have involved blades manufactured by Vestas. According to MidAmerican, the broken blades were "exposed to a direct or nearby lightning strike." According to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), there are over 60,000 operating wind turbines in the United States today and no member of the public has ever been injured by a turbine. "These sorts of failures are exceedingly rare," AWEA spokesperson Sam Brock said in an email. Blade breakages are rare and turbines are safe, AWEA asserts, but MidAmerican says it is committed to finding the cause of the recent failures. Most of the Vestas turbines in MidAmerican's fleet have a nameplate capacity of 2 MW, meaning the most recent Iowa incident caused over 90 MW to be idled for some time. Of the 46 turbines idled two weeks ago, all have since been inspected and "most have been returned to service after confirming there was no damage to the blades. Some remain offline for blade repair or replacement," MidAmerican spokesperson Geoff Greenwood said in an email. "We are working with Vestas to monitor and manage this issue. We are also working to complete the root cause analyses of the most recent blade breaks and implement additional corrective measures to prevent these blade failures going forward," Greenwood said.

Falmouth wind turbines dismantling still a problem — After a decade of issues regarding the two wind turbines that stand at the wastewater treatment plant, the town is no closer to seeing them dismantled. The town has been working to find ways to either move the turbines for use elsewhere or dismantling and disposing of them completely. The state recently rejected the town’s request under a specific law that would have made it easier to dismantle the turbines without costing millions of more dollars. “We have a unique situation,” Town Counsel Frank Duffy told the Falmouth Select Board Monday. “All of the Massachusetts general laws provide for putting these things up. There's no provision in the law that really accommodates us for moving them or taking them down, other than multiple layers of procurement processes, each of which costs a significant amount of money.” When the two wind turbines, known as Wind 1 and Wind 2, were installed in 2010 and 2013, neighboring property owners filed multiple lawsuits to permanently shut them down, followed by years of legal battles and town debates. The Select Board voted in July 2017 not to operate the wind turbines in town and to explore other alternatives. In May 2018, Building Commissioner Rod Palmer requested that a plan be submitted regarding the disposal of the first wind turbine. On Monday, Jennifer Mullen, the town's finance director, said the town was pursuing different alternatives and working with an engineering firm, Weston and Sampson, to figure out a plan for the turbines. The town contracted the firm to perform an analysis on moving the turbines to another location still in Falmouth but away from neighbors, Mullen said. The town met with Joint Base Cape Cod about potentially hosting the turbines there, but there would be large up-front costs in order to do that.

 Coal Complaints Rule Seen as Last-Ditch Move to Help Industry (1) - A final rule on Tuesday from the Interior Department is changing how citizens can report complaints about polluting coal mines, in what critics see as another administration attempt to help the ailing industry.The announcement from the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement comes just a week before the presidential election, in which coal states like Pennsylvania and Ohio are likely to play a key role.The final rule concerning so-called “Ten-Day Notices” sets a new standard that the office said is meant to streamline how citizen complaints are handled. Several coal mining groups and a Wyoming regulator said they back the change, which fits with President Donald Trump’s bid to support the coal sector.Under the old rule, any person could notify the Office of Surface Mining about alleged mining violations, and the agency would then have to relay credible allegations to the state regulator. That started a 10-day clock for the state to either force a miner to fix the problem, or show good cause for not forcing action.In its proposed form, OSMRE’s rule would insert an additional layer that lets the agency informally contact a state before sending a 10-day notice. The text of the final rule (RIN:1029-AC77) wasn’t yet available.Speaking of the proposed rule, Peter Morgan, a senior attorney at the Sierra Club in Denver, said it creates a new, open-ended first step that would draw out the process and leave no paper trail, “so it would be hard for citizens to challenge.” In a Tuesday statement, OSMRE said direct coordination with the states lets the agency “determine if the states have already investigated the potential violation, which promotes sharing of resources, saves time, and eliminates duplicative efforts, resulting in a more effective implementation of the Surface Mine Control and Reclamation Act.”

EERC researching "rare earth elements" in lignite coal | Prairie Public Broadcasting --The University of North Dakota’s Energy and Environmental Research Center has been doing the study of what are called “rare earth” elements in lignite coal. Those elements are essential for such things as cell phones, batteries and other electronic devices. Currently, the US imports most of those elements from other countries, such as China. "We are seeing we have high concentrations in coals, and lignite in particular," said EERC CEO Charles Gorecki. "And it's just identifying where they are, and working on how you extract them, and get them to a processing plant." Gorecki said those rare earth elements are worth a lot of money -- far more than the coal. "That could be an industry for the future for North Dakota," Gorecki said. Gorecki said the elements are present in both the lignite coal as mined, and in the coal ash left over when the lignite is burned. He said at the same time, EERC is researching extracting graphene from lignite. "Graphene is a single layer of carbon molecules in a sheet," Gorecki said. "It's extraordinarily light, and extraordinarily strong." Gorecki said it could be used in aviation. And he said it, too, is very valuable. "Graphene is thousands of dollars per ton, compared with $10 per ton for coal," Gorecki said. Gorecki said extracting those elements could help keep the lignite industry viable in North Dakota. He said that, along with carbon capture technologies being developed, could mean lignite’s future could be very bright

Murray City votes to withdraw from nuclear power project - The Salt Lake Tribune -- The Murray City Council voted unanimously this week to back out of a first-of-its-kind nuclear power project that has the support of a number of Utah municipalities.It’s the fourth Utah city to exit the small modular nuclear reactor pursuit over the last few months amid pressure from opponents who have raised concerns about environmental and financial risks of the proposed 12-module plant, which would be located at Idaho National Laboratory in Idaho Falls and produce a total 720 megawatts of electricity. During the city’s Tuesday council meeting, Murray Power Manager Blaine Haacke outlined several advantages of the project, including the potential that it could fill the energy gap that will be left whenthe Hunter Power Plant in Castle Dale goes offline in the coming years. But he ultimately recommended that the council vote to back out of the project, saying there were too many risks involved in committing another $1.1 million to $1.4 million in taxpayer dollars, with an ultimate anticipated price tag to city residents of around $2.1 million.“I think there’s just enough stumbling blocks out there that I’m really concerned about,” Haacke told the council.The project’s projected costs have ballooned significantly, from $4.5 billion a few years ago to around $6 billion now. And he said there’s a chance that leadership or priority changes on the national level could affect federal appropriations toward the nuclear reactor plant.

NuScale Faces Questions on Nuclear Reactor Safety and Financing Its First Project - NuScale Power wants to build the first small modular nuclear reactor complex in the U.S. by decade's end and has pointed to recent federal safety approvals and a cost-sharing arrangement with its first prospective public utility customers as advancing that goal. But its reactor design faces significant safety questions that were not resolved by a Nuclear Energy Commission (NRC) review completed in August. Those include potential problems with the system that automatically shuts down its reactors in case of emergency, casting doubt on key safety claims from the Portland, Oregon-based company, critics say.The nature of NRC's review will leave the resolution of these key safety issues to be completed later this decade. This could prove problematic for NuScale’s first project, the 12-reactor Carbon Free Power Project (CFPP) in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Over the past two years, the project has seen expected costs double from $3 billion to $6.1 billion and its completion date moved from 2026 to 2030, putting pressure on parent company Fluor Corp. to keep further cost increases in check and secure financial backers for the project. NuScale won't complete key safety reviews for its reactor design until later this decade. These design changes and safety reviews will be the responsibility of the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS), the first customer for 213 megawatts of the 720 MW the CFPP will produce, under a combined construction and operating license process. This could open up the CFPP to technical and legal challenges after significant investments in the project have already been made, critics warn. UAMPS, a division of the Utah state government serving wholesale electric services to communities across the Intermountain West, has seen three cities vote to depart the 33-city consortium planning to agree to buy power from the CFPP in the past few months and is facing an October 31 deadline to commit to its role in the project. And while the Department of Energy has issued a $1.36 billion, 10-year cost-share pledge to UAMPS, that funding will require future congressional appropriations in order to become reality.  NuScale's situation underscores the challenges facing small modular reactor (SMR) companies developing a new generation of nuclear power plants. SMRs could provide zero-carbon power for U.S. utilities seeking to decarbonize their generation fleets while avoiding the multibillion-dollar price tags and construction and budget overrun problems that have doomed most of the large-scale reactors planned for the United States and continue to dog the sole remaining project now underway, Southern Company's Vogtle expansion.  Other U.S.-based SMR developers include Bill Gates-backed TerraPower and X-Energy, which have recently received financial support from DOE with the goal of building their first working units in the next seven years. Others include Hyperion Power Generation and Terrestrial Energy.  Many U.S. utilities committing to zero-carbon energy by midcentury have pointed to SMRs such as NuScale’s as an important round-the-clock addition to replace natural-gas-fired power plants to balance intermittent renewables. But those goals will depend on SMRs being ready for deployment within the next two decades and coming in at costs that can compete with falling prices for renewable energy backed by batteries, pumped hydropower, power-to-gas technologies and other forms of energy storage.

Ameren: Continued upgrades will extend nuclear plant's life - The Callaway Energy Center nuclear power plant is having and will have upgrades made to extend its operational life and increase efficiency through the next 24 or 44 years, according to Ameren Missouri officials. The power plant is also equipped to withstand what nature may throw at it during its lifetime, company officials said. The Callaway plant is currently licensed to operate through 2044, but Ameren Missouri plans to seek renewal of the license. The company has included the nuclear power production center as part of its strategy to cut its carbon emissions in half over the next 10 years and have net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Stephanie Banker, Ameren Missouri's vice president of nuclear engineering and support, said Monday the license renewal would extend the plant's life to 2064, 44 years from now and 80 years since the plant opened in December 1984. The plant is currently in its 24th planned refueling and maintenance outage, which happens every 18 months so fuel assemblies in the reactor can be replaced and other upgrades can be made. Barry Cox, Callaway site vice president, said work underway includes repairs and upgrades, including to the plant's main generator, that will enable the plant to operate through 2044. With an additional 800 workers brought in for the outage, the company is taking health precautions to protect workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has caused supply shortages that have affected other aspects of people's daily lives, but Cox said that has not been the case for the power plant; all nuclear fuel was delivered on time and was able to be put into the reactor vessel.

Cincinnati and Columbus lawsuit seek to overturn HB6 bailout tax - If state lawmakers and Gov. Mike DeWine won't repeal Ohio's $1.3 billion nuclear bailout, leaders in Cincinnati and Columbus say they'll take matters into their own hands.  Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley and Columbus City Attorney Zach Klein filed a lawsuit Tuesday alleging the fee, set to hit Ohioans' electric bills on Jan. 1, is an "unconstitutional tax" because it's based on a fraud. The lawsuit, filed in Franklin County Common Pleas Court, names FirstEnergy Corp.; Ohio Public Utilities Commission chairman Sam Randazzo and state Treasurer Robert Sprague. It seeks a court injunction to block the new fee. "The federal prosecutor called this the largest money laundering bribery scheme perpetrated on the state of Ohio," Cranley said. "There were bribes. They did give them to bad actors, and the only way they get paid is if Ohioans pay this tax. We need a restraining order from courts to stop it from being imposed." Without legal or legislative action, an 85-cent fee will be added to Ohioans' monthly residential electric bills to subsidize two nuclear plants in northern Ohio owned by Energy Harbor, which was previously called FirstEnergy Solutions.  In July, former Ohio Speaker Larry Householder and four others were arrested andlater indicted for racketeering. All defendants have pleaded not guilty.Householder is accused of accepting nearly $61 million in bribes from Company A, believed to be FirstEnergy Corp., and other businesses to win control of the Ohio House of Representatives, pass the $1.3 billion nuclear bailout and defend it. The federal investigation threw the Ohio Legislature into turmoil. Some lawmakers – mostly those who opposed the bailout in 2019 – pushed to repeal the legislation. Others defended the law, saying it saved Ohio's nuclear energy and jobs despite the now-tainted process.   When the fraud was revealed, Cranley said he thought the governor or the GOP-controlled Legislature would repeal it. But there was "no political will" and nothing has happened. DeWine says he supports starting over. However, legislators missed a deadline before the election to block the fees this January. Now, they will need even more votes to delay or stop the charges before the end of the year.So Cranley and Klein, both Democrats, decided to do something instead."We want the people of the state of Ohio to keep their money," said Klein, adding that Columbus residents are on the hook for about $25 million. The timing of the new fee couldn't be worse, the lawsuit alleges.   Because of the novel coronavirus and its ensuing economic crisis, nearly 100,000 ratepayers in the greater Columbus area and tens of thousands of ratepayers in Cincinnati have fallen behind on their utility bills. Utility companies are poised to resume service disconnections.   "Adding these new fees to Ohioans’ utility bills is unfair, unjust, unethical, and irresponsible, especially given that the country is in the midst of a pandemic, and, even more than that, winter is coming," according to the lawsuit.

 Two indicted along with Householder ready to cop pleas in HB 6 scandal - Two of the five people charged in the $60 million federal corruption scandal involving former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder struck plea deals with prosecutors Thursday.Juan Cespedes made his appearance electronically early Thursday afternoon before U.S. District Judge Timothy S. Black. Jeffrey Longstreth did the same about an hour later in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio.The two are now free to testify against the remaining trio of defendants: Householder, longtime lobbyist Neil Clark and former Ohio GOP Chairman Matt Borges.The five were charged in July with felony racketeering counts in what prosecutors ranked as among the largest public corruption scandals in state history. It centered on allegations that Householder and others used dark money from FirstEnergy and related entities to bankroll the campaigns of his supporters and block referendum efforts to overturn House Bill 6, the nuclear bailout law."There's a lot more shoes to drop and there's a lot of nervous people today. I don't know who they are, but they do," said Ohio Democratic Chairman David Pepper."It's no secret we believe the culture of corruption is absolutely overwhelming in Columbus now. Them turning state witness will lead to more information down the road about how far this plot went."Meanwhile, Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost said Thursday's development aids his civil litigation over the HB 6 mess. "Today’s guilty pleas by Longstreth & Cespedes move the HB6 racketeering scandal from allegation to admitted fact. The only remaining question: “who else?” My team, including a forensic accountant, is going through the first batch of documents in our civil racketeering lawsuit," the Republican said.

FirstEnergy fires CEO, two other executives for violating company policies — FirstEnergy has fired CEO Chuck Jones and two other executives for violating company policies and its code of conduct. "During the course of the company's previously disclosed internal review related to the government investigations, the Independent Review Committee of the Board determined that these executives violated certain FirstEnergy policies and its code of conduct," FirstEnergy said in a statement. The company has been tied to an alleged bribery scheme involving former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and the state's nuclear bailout bill.FirstEnergy has said it has done nothing wrong in connection with the investigation into Householder.The company also terminated its Senior Vice President of Product Development, Marketing, and Branding; and its Senior Vice President of External Affairs, effective immediately.FirstEnergy has appointed Steven Strah as acting Chief Executive Officer. To read the entire press release, click here.

FirstEnergy fires CEO Jones, two other executives amid nuclear bailout investigation - Cleveland Business Journal - FirstEnergy Corp., which has been the target of federal investigations related to a nuclear bailout law, said Thursday evening it has fired CEO Chuck Jones. Jones had been FirstEnergy’s CEO the last five years. The Akron, Ohio-based company (NYSE: FE) said in a statement that it also fired its senior vice president of product development, marketing and branding and its senior vice president of external affairs. The executives identified on the company’s website as holding those titles are Dennis Chack and Mike Dowling, respectively. The company said an internal review committee determined the three executives violated FirstEnergy’s policies and its code of conduct. Steven Strah, who was appointed president of the company in May, was appointed acting CEO, effective immediately. Also, Christopher Pappas, a retired CEO of Trinseo S.A. and a current member of First Energy’s board, was named executive director. He remains an independent member of the board and is not part of the management team, the company said. The moves came after two men — Juan Cespedes and Jeffrey Longstreth — on Thursday made plea deals with prosecutors in the $60 million corruption scandal involving former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. Cespedes was a lobbyist and Longstreth was an aide to Householder. Three other men have been charged in the case, including Householder, lobbyist Neil Clark, and former Ohio Republican Chairman Matt Borges. The five men have been accused in an alleged $60 million bribery and racketeering conspiracy to pass House Bill 6, the law that bailed out money-losing nuclear plants owned by a former FirstEnergy subsidiary, now known as Energy Harbor, and to keep a referendum of the law off the ballot in the fall of 2019. Energy Harbor filed for bankruptcy protection in March 2018 and completed its separation from FirstEnergy when it emerged from bankruptcy court in February, according to a company spokeswoman. FirstEnergy is alleged to have steered millions of dollars to a "dark money" group to back Householder and other political allies and cut short the referendum effort. Dark money groups do not have to disclose their donors. Jones has said that his company acted ethically in its support of H.B. 6 and was cooperating with the U.S. Justice Department investigation. Jones also said the former FirstEnergy Solutions, now Energy Harbor, "made its own decisions" about external affairs after appointing a new board of directors as part of its separation from parent FirstEnergy.

 FirstEnergy says it refuses to pay out stock incentives to fired CEO Charles Jones - cleveland.com — FirstEnergy Corp. said Friday that it refuses to pay out stock incentives to chief executive officer Charles Jones and two other officials who were fired just hours after a judge accepted the first guilty pleas in the House Bill 6 scandal. The Akron-based utility told the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that an independent review committee of the company’s board of directors would consider whether “any recoupment, reductions or forfeiture of other grants, awards and compensation may be warranted” against Jones and former officials Michael Dowling and Dennis Chack.The company dismissed the men Thursday night, shortly after two associates of former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder — Jeffrey Longstreth and Juan Cespedes — pleaded guilty to racketeering in U.S. District Court in Cincinnati. A sentencing date has not been set for them. In a statement, the company said an independent review committee of its board of directors found that Jones, Dowling and Chack “violated certain FirstEnergy policies and its code of conduct.” The company did not elaborate. No FirstEnergy employees, current or former, are charged with crimes related to the allegations levied by federal investigators. Authorities said in documents that the company and its affiliates paid $60 million in bribes to associates of Householder in exchange for a $1.3 billion legislative bailout of two nuclear plants, once owned by a subsidiary of FirstEnergy. The company has denied wrongdoing, and it said it is cooperating with investigators. In its notice to the SEC, FirstEnergy said that as a result of the firings, “each of the terminated executives forfeits or is otherwise ineligible to receive any grants, awards or compensation” regarding the company’s incentive programs. The programs involve several types of incentives, including stock options. It is unclear how much Jones and the others would lose. A company spokeswoman declined to comment. Documents filed earlier this month involving a lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Cleveland show Jones earned more than $70 million in salary and stocks since 2016. That includes $18 million in March, when he exercised an option and sold 407,466 shares of company stock for $44 a share, according to the documents. He had an annual base salary of more than $1.1 million since 2016.

FirstEnergy debt ratings downgraded after CEO fired - FirstEnergy's billions of dollars in debt was downgraded following the firing of CEO Chuck Jones over concerns of possible illicit activity tied to the $61 million Larry Householder bribery investigation. Fitch Ratings late Friday afternoon downgraded FirstEnergy debt to its BBB- classification from BBB, meaning it thinks the Akron utility's debt is now riskier following the firings of Jones and two other executives on Thursday. The ratings outlook was revised downward from Stable to Negative as well.  The prominent credit ratings agency said it cannot rule out that FirstEnergy or a subsidiary will be charged with criminal activity and if that happens, that could hurt the utility's financial performance. "The rating actions reflect the termination of three senior executives including former FirstEnergy CEO Charles E. Jones and two other senior executives and ongoing credit concerns regarding potential illicit activity at FirstEnergy in connection with an ongoing federal bribery/racketeering investigation," Fitch said in a release.  Fitch noted that the Department of Justice investigation led to criminal charges against former Ohio House Speaker Householder, four other men, and non-profit Generation Now over bribes connected to the passage of House Bill 6 that provides more than $1 billion in subsidies to two former FirstEnergy nuclear plants in Ohio. "While the indictment does not explicitly name FirstEnergy or its affiliates, pseudonyms referred to in the affidavit are widely-believed to refer to FirstEnergy, its corporate services subsidiary, FirstEnergy Service Company, and former subsidiary, Energy Harbor," Fitch said. Energy Harbor is the former FirstEnergy Solutions, the generation arm of the utility that was spun off of FirstEnergy in February at the conclusion of a lengthy Chapter 11 bankruptcy process. Energy Harbor owns the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear plants that benefit from the House Bill 6 subsidiaries. "While FirstEnergy and its subsidiaries have not been named in the DOJ investigation, future criminal charges against FirstEnergy and its corporate service subsidiary, FirstEnergy Service Company,  cannot be ruled out in light of pay-to-play allegations contained in the affidavit," Fitch said. "If FirstEnergy or FirstEnergy Service Company become targets of the criminal investigation and are ultimately convicted, FirstEnergy could be subject to fines and penalties, civil litigation and resulting financial pressure, reputational risk, regulatory and political challenges, higher cost of capital and erosion of confidence in management and the effectiveness of its corporate governance and internal controls."

Chevron to Divest Shale Assets in $735MM Deal -- EQT Corp. agreed to buy Chevron Corp.’s Appalachian shale assets for $735 million as the biggest producer of U.S. natural gas takes advantage of an industry slump to expand. The transaction is expected to close by the end of the year, EQT said in a statement on Tuesday. Chevron has been trying to unload its Appalachian gas holdings since late 2019, when it recorded an $11 billion writedown for that asset and others amid a swelling domestic gas glut and cratering prices for the furnace and power-plant fuel. The acquisition is the latest in a string of recent deals where shale drillers are seeking to add scale to cope with a plunge in commodity prices that has left much of the industry unprofitable. “This acquisition is a natural bolt-on extension of EQT’s dominant position in the core of the southwest Marcellus and supplements our already impressive asset base,” EQT Chief Executive Officer Toby Rice said in the statement. The Chevron assets include about 100 work-in-progress wells, with a net production capacity of 450 million cubic feet a day, EQT said. It will also give the shale explorer a 31% ownership interest in pipeline company Laurel Mountain Midstream. EQT indicated it may fund the deal with cash on hand, a revolving credit facility or a separately disclosed issuance of up to 23 million common shares. EQT fell in after-hours trading, dropping 3% to $15.67 at 7:59 p.m. in New York. Chevron fell 0.6%. EQT has also made a proposal to acquire rival CNX Resources Corp., people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News last week. No final decision had been made and EQT could opt to not proceed with a potential deal, they said. CNX fell 1.6% after the arrangement with Chevron was announced. EQT already is the largest supplier of U.S. gas, producing 44% more than its nearest competitor, Exxon Mobil Corp., according to figures compiled by the Natural Gas Supply Association. EQT pumped about 4 billion cubic feet a day as of the first quarter.

EQT to grow even bigger with $735 million deal for Chevron assets - EQT Corp. announced on Tuesday that it is buying Chevron’s Appalachian assets for $735 million in a deal that will make the largest natural gas producer in the country an even bigger force. Downtown-based EQT called the move “low risk” and a “strategic step,” having foreshadowed the industry’s consolidation during its earnings call last week. Chevron’s more than 500 producing wells that are part of the sales agreement, signed last week, will add about 11% to EQT’s production. The sale would also come with coveted infrastructure: two water pipelines that can handle fresh and produced water, a centralized water handling facility in West Virginia, and an interest in a natural gas gathering pipeline system operated by Williams Companies. These assets, which make it possible for wells to operate and for companies that operate them to sell their gas to the market, are increasingly important for drillers to control. EQT is raising money to partially fund the deal by issuing up to 23 million shares of its stock. The rest will come from cash and its revolving credit facility. The company also plans to sell up to $350 million in senior notes. In its stock offering, EQT said it expects the deal to close late in the fourth quarter. Chevron put its position in this region up for sale in December after several years of waning interest in Appalachia. It entered the area in 2011 with a $4.3 billion acquisition of Atlas Energy Inc. At one point, the California-based energy giant planned to build a regional headquarters here and even bought land in Moon to do so. But its Appalachian aspirations began to dim around 2014 as natural gas prices settled into a stubborn valley. In December, after writing down the value of its Appalachian assets by billions of dollars, Chevron said it was marketing nearly 900,000 acres in the region. The deal with EQT includes 335,000 Marcellus shale acres, 37% of which are in what EQT believes to be the core area of the play. It also comes with 400,000 undeveloped acres in the Utica shale. EQT’s CEO Toby Rice said in a statement that when the deal closes, the assets will be “in the right hands.”

Adelphia Gateway Natural Gas Pipeline Begins Construction in Eastern Pennsylvania - Natural Gas Intelligence -Given clearance by FERC and state regulators, Adelphia Gateway LLC has started pre-construction on its brownfield natural gas pipeline expansion project in eastern Pennsylvania.  Backed by New Jersey Resources Corp., the Adelphia project proposes converting part of an existing oil pipeline to natural gas to serve customers in the Greater Philadelphia area.  Adelphia, which received authorization earlier this month to start Phase I of construction, told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission last week that work had begun. The pipeline is slated to begin service next year.  “The project continues to work closely with local stakeholders and governments as activity gets underway,” the developer said this week. “Adelphia Gateway will conduct additional outreach to inform residents and businesses of construction activities in their areas.”Phase 1 includes construction in parts of Delaware, Chester, Bucks and Montgomery counties and includes converting a 50-mile segment of an existing 84-mile oil pipeline to deliver natural gas. The northern 34-mile segment of the pipeline, running from western Bucks County to the Martins Creek terminal in Northampton County, has delivered natural gas since 1996.Adelphia President Ginger Richman said the developer expects to “bring natural gas resources to families and businesses in the Greater Philadelphia area and play a role in getting the region’s economy back up and running.”Adelphia secured a certificate from FERC by a 2-1 vote in late 2019. The project recently received permits from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection that were needed to start construction.

PBF Energy to shut fuel-producing units at Paulsboro, New Jersey refinery: letter (Reuters) - PBF Energy will shut most refining units at its Paulsboro, New Jersey, refinery, the company's chief executive said in a letter to employees on Wednesday that cited the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on fuel demand. The company will cut 250 jobs at the refinery, which will now only produce partially refined feedstocks that will be sent to PBF’s nearby Delaware City, Delaware, refinery, CEO Tom Nimbley said in the letter, which was seen by Reuters. “PBF Energy, along with the entire oil industry, has been significantly, unexpectedly, and negatively impacted from the wellhead to the pump by the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily through demand destruction for transportation fuels related to lockdowns that throttled back the economy,” Nimbley said in the letter. It was sent to employees after the market close on Wednesday. PBF was not immediately available for comment. In a 2019 press release, PBF said it had 489 full-time workers at the refinery.

Shale continues to benefit US plastics firms in Appalachia region - Eagle Manufacturing Co., a maker of plastic safety products in Wellsburg, W.Va., was struggling with foreign competition in the early 2000s but was able to turn things around when shale gas and oil provided low energy costs and low-priced plastic resins as resin makers expanded. "It was tough to compete," former Eagle President and CEO Joe Eddy said Oct. 22 during the 2020 Global Plastics Summit. "The country lost a lot of jobs, but we decided to stay instead of moving our production to China. "We didn't move, and now we're more profitable than ever. We're more cost-effective and competitive, and China's labor rates are increasing," he said. Eagle was acquired in early 2018 by Justrite Manufacturing, with Eddy retiring in early 2019. He said shale continues to hold a lot of promise for manufacturing in the Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia area. "A manufacturer can build a plant in the midst of the largest market on top of feedstock and in a low-cost energy area," Eddy added. "The main thing is offering reduced energy costs and raw material costs to plastics processors." The Appalachia region of those three states has benefited from development of the Marcellus and Utica shale fields. The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) has allowed the development of feedstocks that previously couldn't be reached. As a result of shale development, the U.S. now is producing more energy than it did in the 1970s, according to Jerry James, president of energy firm Artex Oil Co. of Marietta, Ohio, and co-founder of Shale Crescent USA, an organization that's been promoting the region. "Wind and solar only make electricity, but [shale oil and gas] makes 5,000 products," he said.

Big Oil’s hopes are pinned on plastics. It won’t end well. – Vox - The fossil fuel industry has not been doing well lately. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, growth in global demand had slowed to 1 percent annually. Now, lockdowns and distancing to stop the spread of the coronavirus have decimated the industry. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released projections of rapid short-term decline in global demand, to the tune of 9 percent for oil, 8 percent for coal, and 5 percent for gas.  Depending on how long and severe the economic crisis proves to be, it will take years for demand to recover. Indeed, with electric vehicles cutting into oil demand by the end of the decade, it may never fully recover. Industry analysts like Carbon Tracker’s Kingsmill Bond are speculating that 2019 may turn out to be the peak of fossil fuel demand, and historically, in other industries, a peak in demand “tends to mark the beginning of a period of low prices and poor returns,” says Bond. But the industry has a response to this dire forecast, and it can be summarized in one word: plastics.  Overall, plastics represent a fairly small sliver of oil demand. Annually, the world consumes around 4,500 million tonnes (mt) of oil but only around 1,000mt of petrochemicals (oil and natural gas used to make chemical products), and of that 1,000mt, only about 350mt are plastics. (A tonne is a metric ton, about 1.1 US tons.)Nonetheless, plastics are commonly projected to be the biggest source of new demand for oil over coming decades — in some projections, the only real source. It is these projections that the industry is using to justify billions in new projects, as oil companies across the world shift investment toward petrochemicals. And Big Oil is working its hardest to make the projections come true: The New York Times recently ran an investigative piece revealing the industry’s plans to push more plastic, and plastic waste, into Kenya. Plastics are the thin reed upon which the industry is placing all its hopes.But a new report released in September by Carbon Tracker throws a big bucket of cold water on these hopes. It argues that, far from a reliable source of growth, plastics are uniquely vulnerable to disruption. They are coming under increasing scrutiny and regulation across the world. Huge consumer product companies like Unilever are phasing them out. And the public is turning against them.If existing solutions are fully implemented, growth in plastics could fall to zero. And if that happens, then there is no remaining source of net oil demand growth and 2019 will almost certainly prove to be the year of peak fossil fuels.

Plastic Continues to Capture Share of the US Pipe Market - US demand for pipe is forecast to reach $47.4 billion in 2024, with a particularly strong market performance expected for plastic pipe, as materials such as PVC and HDPE continue to gain share over other material types like metal in many applications due to such benefits as:

• corrosion resistance – key for such applications as sewers and buried pipe applications with acidic soils
• flexibility, which is important for trenchless installation
• low cost per linear foot due to their light weight

In addition, pipe replacement projects are expected to benefit suppliers of plastic pipe. Many communities are facing the replacement of aging water and sewer infrastructure, resulting in good growth for these sizable end markets for PVC and HDPE pipe.Plastic pipe demand is forecast to rise 3.5% per year through 2024, a faster rate than expected for overall pipe demand. Advances will be driven by increased water and sewer supply construction spending as urgency to update outdated infrastructure in the US continues to grow.Federal spending is expected to constitute a significant driver of growth in these applications, especially as local and state government face budget shortfalls due to the negative economic impact of COVID-19.One commonality between major water, sewer, and oil and gas transmission projects is pipeline size.Where plastic pipelines are replacing older infrastructure, these new plastic pipes are almost universally of a larger diameter than the ones they are replacing. As US water, sewer, and energy needs grow, so too does the diameter of pipes required to handle these needs adequately.As a result, the average diameter of plastic pipes is increasing, which will support growth in weight and value terms through 2024 and beyond.

Oil spill cleanup of Delaware Bay Coastline Intensifies Today With Additional Resources Deployed - The Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control and U.S. Coast Guard continued Thursday and Friday to spearhead a cleanup operation for the oil spill that has deposited blobs of oil called tar balls and oiled debris this week over a stretch of Delaware coastline extending from the upper Delaware Bay to the tip of the Atlantic Ocean. The cleanup operation intensified this morning with additional resources deployed by state and federal agencies and non-profit organizations. More than 125 environmental professionals from DNREC, the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT), the Coast Guard and its environmental contractor, and the Delaware Bay and River Cooperative are expected to be engaged Friday in removing oil found littering beaches and rafting around debris offshore. The Delaware Bay and River Cooperative, a non-profit funded by industry in the event of an oil spill, dispatched an oil skimming vessel to remove oily debris seen Thursday afloat in the Bay. Tri-State Bird Rescue of Newark continued to play a key role in the cleanup coalition, investigating reports of wildlife impacted by oil and treating captured sea gulls and other wildlife that has been oiled in the water. “We continue to mobilize our expert resources as the tides spread oil from the beaches back into the water and back on the beach,” said DNREC Secretary Shawn Garvin. “We are combing the beaches and, shovel by shovel, removing the tar balls and contaminated sand.” The crews are manually removing oil patties and tar balls are being found on various locations along the coast. Approximately 21 tons of oily sand and debris, filling 1 ½ dumpsters, was removed from the affected areas as of 7 p.m. Thursday. “We are grateful for our interagency collaboration with DelDOT and for the help from the Delaware Bay and River Cooperative enabling us take the cleanup onto the water,” Secretary Garvin said. The city of Lewes Thursday closed its beaches temporarily due to oil that had come ashore and posed a threat to people and pets alike who visit them. DNREC closed the 4-wheel drive surf fishing crossing at Delaware Beach Plum Island Preserve, overseen by Delaware State Parks, so cleanup operations will not be hampered by vehicles tracking oil onto the sand. While the oil spill cleanup continues, the Coast Guard and DNREC strongly advise the public not to handle any oily product found or attempt to assist affected wildlife along the shore, but to report these findings to DNREC’s environmental hotline at 800-662-8802 so the situations can be addressed by hazmat-trained professionals.

 Oil Spill Off Delaware Coast Affecting Less Than 1% Of Ocean City Beach Area, Officials Say — Cleanup efforts continued on the Delmarva Peninsula Tuesday more than a week after oil blobs first started washing ashore in the Delaware Bay. So far, roughly 55 tons of debris have been cleared. Still, currents continue to carry the oil south, with remnants now washing ashore in Ocean City, Maryland. “Over the course of the next four or five days, we’re going to have some issues,” Ocean City Mayor Rick Meehan said. “The good news is it affects less than 1% of the actual beach area.” Ocean City, Maryland Officials Monitoring Oil Spill Affecting Delaware Beaches Meehan said it’s a situation officials are closely monitoring. “The good news is if there is good news in something like this, is there are no toxic properties evident at this time, there are no harmful vapors and really isn’t any health hazard,” the mayor said. As for the environmental impact, Meehan said an upward of 66 birds have had some sort of interaction with the oil blobs, but in most cases, the birds were still able to fly. “We don’t see any real environmental issue at this time,” Meehan said. “But that’s why there’s such an extensive cleanup effort.” The cause of the spill is still unknown. The Coast Guard continues to investigate. “We are looking at all vessels that were in the area from a period of time before and even a period of time up to [the oil blobs] coming ashore,” Lieutenant Commander Coast Guard Frederick Pugh said.

Cleanup of oil spill from unknown source stretches into Ocean City - Cleanup of an oil spill from an unidentified source continues, extending into Ocean City, Maryland. The Maryland Department of the Environment has joined efforts to clean up oil and oil-drenched debris that has been washing ashore in Delaware and now Maryland since Oct. 19. Maryland’s department will work with the Delaware Department of Natural Resources under the guidance of the U.S. Coast Guard to help with the cleanup. The spilled oil has been washing ashore with high tide in “tar balls,” which range from coin- to pancake-sized, along with debris that has been drenched in oil. As of Tuesday, more than 65 tons of oil-covered sand and debris had been removed from Delaware beaches. Though many birds and fish have migrated from the area for the season, the Coast Guard said there have been reports of birds covered in oil. They have worked to clean the exposed birds and said that there did not appear to be any lasting impact on the animals. The spill prompted the closure of several beaches in Delaware and Maryland. Dewey Beach, Bethany Beach and Lewes have all closed their beaches as the cleanup efforts continue. “We’re not sure how long oily debris will continue to wash up with the tide,” said Shawn Garvin, secretary of the Delaware Department of Natural Resources, who was on scene surveying oil on the Delaware beaches on Wednesday. “Unfortunately, oil can be very persistent in the marine environment, but our environmental professionals are persistent, too,” Garvin said. “They’re out there, working up and down the coastline, getting it out of the sand as much as possible.” On Tuesday, a large beach cleanup was organized on South Bethany ahead of the arrival of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, who will begin a beach replenishment operation.

RI regulators approve natural gas rate hikes but push off bill impacts – State regulators have approved increases in natural gas rates proposed by National Grid, but, citing the continuing economic distress caused by the coronavirus crisis, they made the highly unusual decision to defer half of the bill impacts on ratepayers. “The COVID crisis and all its impacts have really clobbered Rhode Island,” Ronald Gerwatowski, chairman of the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission, said at a virtual meeting on Wednesday. “It’s a once-in-a-hundred-year crisis. I think this reality needs to be confronted.” The decision to defer some of the costs for gas used for heating and cooking comes after the commission approved an electric rate increase in September that was also requested by National Grid, the state’s dominant energy utility. At that time, commission members considered pushing off part of the burden, but decided against it because of uncertainty surrounding the pandemic and how long it would continue. However in the past weeks since the electric case was decided, infections have spiked and Gov. Gina Raimondo has spoken of possibly tightening restrictions once more. With the commission’s vote, instead of paying an additional $97 over the 12-month period starting Sunday, the typical homeowner will pay about $48. For qualifying low-income customers, the annual increase will be about $35. The monthly increases work out to $6.87 and $4.82, respectively, and come on top of an $11 increase in the monthly electric bill for the typical household. (The electric increase will remain in effect until March 31, when rates will likely come down, while the new gas rates will stay in place until Oct. 31, 2021.) By deferring collections for half of the $30.7-million increase that they approved for National Grid’s gas business, commission members didn’t reduce the amount that customers will ultimately pay. In fact, because the deferred costs will collect interest, ratepayers will end up paying more when the bill comes due.

Healey wades into debate over Weymouth gas compressor station –  Responding to a cadre of South Shore lawmakers who had asked her to intervene and address what they described as potential regulatory and civil rights violations impacting environmental justice communities, Attorney General Maura Healey said last week that her office will keep a close eye on a natural gas compressor station in Weymouth and is open to collaborating with lawmakers to change the permitting process for future projects. Last month, South Shore lawmakers who have long opposed the Weymouth project wrote to Healey with complaints that project operators and state agencies failed to provide sufficient notice to residents, particularly those in designated environmental justice communities, ahead of several important hearings and public comment periods.“In response to your concerns about public notices to environmental justice communities near the project, my team asked MassDEP to closely examine past public involvement practices with the facility and encouraged the agency to explore additional options for improvements going forward, including ensuring community responsive translation,” Healey wrote in her letter last week. “Public involvement by all communities, but especially environmental justice communities, is equally important. We understand that MassDEP intends to speak again with community leaders to solicit further feedback on what additional steps the agency could include in the current public involvement plan related to cleanup at the site to address any ongoing concerns.”Healey has previously called for Massachusetts to steer away from expanding natural gas infrastructure but has not vocally and directly opposed the compressor station that Enbridge sought and now controls in Weymouth. In her letter, however, Healey said she is “deeply concerned about the recent emergency natural gas releases at the facility,” and that her office has been in touch with federal regulators to discuss the issue.

Another lawsuit filed against bogged-down Mountain Valley Pipeline - Two endangered species of fish — the Roanoke logperch and the candy darter — could be pushed closer to extinction if a natural gas pipeline is allowed to invade their waters, according to a legal challenge filed Tuesday. A coalition of environmental groups asked a federal appeals court to review a biological opinion from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which found last month that construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline is not likely to jeopardize protected fish, bats and mussels. It was the latest in a string of lawsuits that have long delayed work on the 303-mile pipeline. Also on Tuesday, the Sierra Club and 10 other environmental and conservation groups asked the Fish and Wildlife Service to stay its approval, one of several needed for the project to move forward. In a letter seeking the stay, the groups contend that the biological opinion failed to adequately consider how fish would be affected by increased sedimentation caused by the steel pipe crossing hundreds of streams, or how the Indiana and northern long-eared bats would survive the clearing of forests they inhabit. “These imperiled species are highly vulnerable to precisely the impacts that the Project would inflict,” Elly Benson, a senior attorney with the Sierra Club, wrote in the letter. Work on the controversial pipeline was put on hold a year ago, after the same environmental groups filed a legal challenge to Fish and Wildlife’s first biological opinion, issued in 2017. After a nearly year-long review, the agency last month issued its second approval — which was again challenged Tuesday. Benson’s letter asked the agency to act on its request for a stay “as soon as possible,” as construction crews begin to mobilize along the pipeline’s route from northern West Virginia, through Southwest Virginia, to connect with an existing pipeline near the North Carolina line. A spokeswoman for the Fish and Wildlife Service would only say that the request and court papers were under review.

Environmental Justice Advocates Sound Alarm Over Eastern Shore Pipeline – Maryland Matters - The proposed Eastern Shore Pipeline Project, which would bring fracked natural gas from Delaware into Somerset County, runs primarily through low-income communities of color, a recent analysis by the Chesapeake Climate Action Network found. Out of the 40 census blocks surrounding the proposed pipeline route through Maryland, only four were not identified as potential environmental justice populations. There are especially large majority minority and low-income populations concentrated around Salisbury in Wicomico County, where the proposed pipeline project would begin. The study also found a large census tract with over 70% minority population and 24% of low-income residents adjacent to the proposed pipeline in Somerset County. The natural gas pipeline already exists in in Delaware and Wicomico County in Maryland, but this project would extend it from Wicomico to Somerset County, one of three counties in Maryland that do not have access to natural gas and have missed economic opportunities because of it, according to Daniel K. Thompson, executive director of the Somerset County Economic Development Commission. With an unemployment rate at 9.1% and the highest poverty rate in the state at 23.4%, Somerset County would greatly benefit from access to natural gas, as it would provide additional tax revenue, decrease local businesses’ energy costs and help create more jobs, Thompson said. Mountaire Farms, the chicken processing company that is waiting to invest an additional $5 million and add five to seven new jobs, as well as Somerset Crossing, a development project in Princess Anne that will create 75-100 new jobs, will benefit immediately after natural gas is made available in Somerset County, Thompson said. “Somerset County has many challenges such as high unemployment, high poverty rates, high energy cost, etc. Therefore, why should one of the most challenged counties in Maryland not have access to natural gas, when other counties enjoy the benefits?” he said. Environmentalists argue that expanding gas infrastructure is short-sighted, as companies like the Chesapeake Energy Corporation (not affiliated with Chesapeake Utilities Corporation, the pipeline company) filed for bankruptcy this summer and many more are expected to do so by the end of next year. Rather, electrifying buildings is a lower cost alternative compared to gas and leads to lower energy bills in the long-run, according to Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., an energy consulting firm.

Federal regulators order Atlantic Coast Pipeline to provide a plan for project wind-down, restoration - Almost four months after the cancellation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, federal regulators have ordered the project developers to provide a plan for what they intend to do with the facilities and the lands where the natural gas pipeline was supposed to be built. The order from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission applies to both the Atlantic Coast Pipeline and the Supply Header Project, a roughly 38-mile pipeline that was expected to connect the ACP with existing pipelines in Ohio and Pennsylvania. “In order for us to determine if additional commission authorizations are required in conjunction with cancellations, we will need more detail about your plans regarding the authorized facilities,” wrote Rich McGuire, director of FERC’s Division of Gas Environment and Engineering, in an Oct. 27 letter to Dominion Energy Transmission, Inc., the majority owner of the project. FERC has asked that the plan be filed within 60 days. Among the requested information is a schedule for final arrangements regarding the project’s different phases and restoration activities related to them, a description of how areas where construction has begun but no pipe has been installed will be restored and “a plan for the long-term restoration of disturbed rights-of-way.”The company will also be required to provide an update on the status of its discussions with affected landowners, including “preferences regarding treatment of pipeline segments that have already been installed,” “preferences for removal of felled trees that have not been cleared” and “preferences on how disturbed areas would be restored, depending on their land use type.” The cancellation of the planned 604-mile pipeline left in limbo many landowners who had granted easements for the project, whether willingly or not. Atlantic Coast Pipeline signed a range of easements with landowners along the project’s path. While some included clauses terminating the easement if the pipeline wasn’t built within a certain period of time or imposing other restrictive terms, others granted the developers broader rights on a permanent basis. Asked about how Dominion intends to approach easements that remain in force and whether it plans to relinquish those easements, Dominion spokesperson Aaron Ruby said in an email the company “will work with each landowner whose property has been disturbed to develop a plan for the right of way on their property” and will “evaluate each easement agreement on a case-by-case basis in consultation with each landowner.” “Our goal is to close out the project as efficiently as possible and with minimal environmental disturbance,” he wrote.

U.S. natgas hits near 2-yr high on higher demand view, storm threat (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed to their highest in nearly two years on Monday on forecasts for higher heating demand and concerns that Tropical Storm Zeta aiming at the U.S. Gulf Coast could disrupt production. Front-month gas futures rose 5.3 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $3.024 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices earlier rose to their highest since Jan. 25, 2019 at $3.080 per mmBtu. "We are seeing some very cold weather temperatures that will be coming across in the next week, so we are going to see some very strong demand," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. Data provider Refinitiv predicted 212 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, higher than the 30-year normal of 204 HDDs. HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses. Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 97 bcfd this week to 97.4 bcfd next week. Concerns that Tropical Storm Zeta, which was poised to turn into a hurricane as it approached the Gulf of Mexico, would disrupt oil and gas production, was also fuelling price gains, Flynn said. Zeta has already forced the closure of 16% of crude oil and 6% of natural gas production, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said. Chevron Corp has evacuated staff from its U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore facilities, while BP Plc and Equinor ASA withdrew workers and shut in offshore production ahead of the storm. U.S. output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was at 87.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Sunday, Refinitiv said.

US natural gas holds near 21-month high - US natural gas futures held near a 21-month high on Tuesday on rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a drop in output as another storm targets the Gulf Coast. Traders noted the front-month was weighed down by expectations higher prices in November will cause power generators to burn more coal and less gas to produce electricity. On their second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery fell 0.5 cent, or 0.2%, to settle at $3.019 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since January 2019. December futures, which will soon be the front-month, meanwhile, gained about six cents to settle at $3.31 per mmBtu, which would also be the highest close since January 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states was on track to drop to 85.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday, down about 2.9 bcfd over the last five days as Gulf Coast producers shut wells before Tropical Storm Zeta strengthens into a hurricane and hits eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said energy firms have already shut in about 1.5 bcfd, or 55%, of offshore gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

U.S. natgas futures slip from 21-month high as drop in crude prices weigh - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Wednesday from a 21-month high earlier in the week as a 5% drop in crude futures weighed on all energy markets. That price dip came despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and a drop in output as producers shut wells ahead of Hurricane Zeta, which is expected to smash into eastern Louisiana later Wednesday. On their last day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery fell 2.3 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.996 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since January 2019. December futures, which will soon be the front-month, meanwhile, lost about two cents to close at $3.29 per mmBtu, which would also be the highest since January 2019. Oil prices fell over 5% as surging coronavirus infections in the United States and Europe raised the specter of renewed lockdowns. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states dropped to 84.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday, down 3.8 bcfd over the last five days as Gulf Coast producers shut wells for Zeta. U.S. regulators said energy firms shut about 1.5 bcfd, or 55%, of offshore Gulf of Mexico gas production. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from an average of 97.7 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 7.4 bcfd so far in October. That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month in a row for the first time since February, when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to purchase more U.S. gas.

November Natural Gas Falls Short of $3 Mark as Cold Seen Moderating; Cash Strengthens -- Natural gas traders on Wednesday struggled with which side of the $3.00/MMBtu mark the prompt-month futures contract should roll off the board. With an uncertain weather outlook weighing heavily on the market, the November Nymex contract expired 2.3 cents lower at $2.996. December, which moves to the front of the curve on Thursday, fell 2.0 cents to $3.291. Spot gas prices were mixed as chilly air intensified across the country’s midsection. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 8.5 cents to $3.025. With weather becoming increasingly important given the fast approaching start of winter for the gas markets, the current cold blast was propping up demand as far south as Texas. Bespoke Weather Services said the morning forecast changes were mixed, but slightly colder overall. A “sneaky” trough swinging through the East early next week continued to move colder, although the warming in the wake of this feature is strong, according to the forecaster. This would lead to warmer changes in all of the eastern half of the nation in the back half of next week. “The crucial part of the forecast remains what comes as we move toward the middle third of November,” Bespoke said. There are signs of colder weather, which was reflected again in the midday weather models, but they are likely to be limited to the western half of the country, at least initially, according to the firm. Currently, below normal gas-weighted degree days are seen at the end of the 15-day outlook, but models are to be heavily scrutinized in case the western cold is able to spread eastward toward mid-month. “Confidence is below average for now,” Bespoke said. On the supply front, more offshore production was being shut-in as Category 2 Hurricane Zeta moved her way through the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).In the 4 p.m. CT update, the National Hurricane Center said Zeta was making landfall in southeastern Louisiana packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. On the forecast track, the storm was projected to make a second landfall along the Mississippi coast Wednesday evening, then move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.Before noon Wednesday, more than 66% of the oil and about 45% of the natural gas produced in the GOM had been shut-in, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Personnel had been evacuated from three nondynamically positioned rigs, and six dynamically positioned rigs had been moved out of the storm’s projected path.

US working natural gas volumes in underground storage rise by 29 Bcf: EIA — US natural gas storage volumes expanded well below market expectations last week, while a net withdrawal is anticipated for the week in progress, kicking off the heating season two weeks earlier than last year.Storage inventories increased by 29 Bcf to 3.955 Tcf for the week ended Oct. 23, the US Energy Information Administration reported the morning of Oct. 29. The injection was less than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 37 Bcf build. Responses to the survey ranged from an injection of 32 Bcf to 53 Bcf. The injection measured much less than the 89 Bcf build reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average gain of 67 Bcf, according to EIA data. Storage volumes now stand 285 Bcf, or 8%, more than the year-ago level of 3.670 Tcf and 289 Bcf, or 8%, more than the five-year average of 3.666 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub December contract shed 7 cents to $3.21/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report at 10:30 am ET. However, those declines shifted during the afternoon, with the prompt month back to $3.29/MMBtu. S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 29 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Oct. 30. The net withdrawal looks to occur two weeks earlier than the first draw last year as the surplus to the five-year average would shrink by a sizable 81 Bcf. The first pull of the year typically occurs during the first full week of November, according to EIA historical data. Hurricane Zeta smashed into Louisiana on Oct. 28, making it the fifth storm to strike the state this year. It crippled offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. Offshore output declined from 2.2 Bcf/d on Oct. 22 to 1 Bcf/d by Oct. 27 in anticipation of the storm. It fell to 294 MMcf/d in the storm's wake on Oct. 29. Zeta is weaker than the three major hurricanes that have pummeled the US Gulf Coast over the last two months during this historic season. Based on the initial offshore declines, the storm is likely to have a primarily bullish effect on prices at Henry Hub, according to Platts Analytics. Zeta set a record as the 11th named storm to make landfall in the Lower 48 in a single season. It is also the 27th named storm of the year, already tying the record-setting 2005, but with a full month remaining in the hurricane season. The sudden supply losses come just as the US begins to see the first signs of winter demand, easing the massive supply overhang that has built up through most of the summer. Colder weather across much of the country has increased residential and commercial demand by 7.4 Bcf/d for the week in progress.

Natural Gas Futures Rise from Dead as EIA Storage Data Scares Bears - Natural gas traders waking up with any neck pain on Friday may have a case of whiplash after Thursday’s wild ride in the futures market. The December Nymex contract, on the first day in the prompt-month position, plunged early to a $3.151 intraday low before screaming back higher to settle at $3.301, up a penny on the day. January closed six-tenths of a cent higher at $3.417. The same could not be said for spot gas, which traded Thursday for gas delivery through Saturday. Small losses were seen across most of the country, but big gains on the East Coast lifted NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. up 1.5 cents to $3.040.In a battle between bearish weather outlooks and tighter supply/demand balances, the December Nymex gas futures contract made a big entrance on its first day at the front of the curve. The contract traded in a nearly 20-cent range before settling near the high end.The early losses largely were because of further confirmation that after next week’s cold blasts, a warmer regime would settle over the United States, particularly in the higher demand regions like the Northeast. The midday Global Forecast System trended even milder for the Nov. 8-12 period, according to NatGasWeather.Production also started to come back after Hurricane Zeta, a Category 2 storm, made landfall Wednesday afternoon near Cocodrie, LA, about 75 miles southwest of New Orleans. Genscape Inc. said Thursday’s top-day estimates showed U.S. production up 1.4 Bcf/d to 84.9 Bcf/d. Analyst Josh Garcia noted that Wednesday’s production levels were already down day/day but then suffered a 1.7 Bcf/d downward revision to finish at 83.5 Bcf/d.“This is a drop of 3.2 Bcf/d day/day from Oct. 26’s production number of 86.7 Bcf/d,” Garcia said. In addition to Gulf of Mexico shut-ins, including about 45% of natural gas, Genscape estimated output declines this week in Texas, the Midcontinent and the New Mexico portion of the Permian. Gains on Thursday were centered in Texas (up 587 MMcf/d) and in the Permian New Mexico (up 787 MMcf/d), according to Garcia.“Gulf production is still depressed due to the hurricane, sitting at 148 MMcf/d” Thursday, he said.  “One place where production has not been hampered is the East, where it has been rising since early October due to stronger local economics.”Genscape estimated East region production at 32.9 Bcf/d for Thursday, up from the month-to-date average of 31.9 Bcf/d.On the bullish side, the latest government storage inventory report surprised the market when it reported a much smaller-than-expected 29 Bcf injection. Ahead of the report, injection estimates ranged from 17 Bcf to 46 Bcf, though many surveys had reached a consensus of a build in the upper 30s Bcf.

Weekly Natural Gas Prices Spike as Chilly Air Intensifies, Zeta Strikes - In an abbreviated week of spot trading influenced by colder weather and yet another hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), weekly cash prices surged. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the Oct. 26-29 period jumped 59.5 cents to $3.000. This week’s average only includes trades conducted through Thursday, the cutoff for gas delivery through the end of October.   Chilly air settled in across the country’s midsection, freezing the Upper Midwest and delivering below-average temperatures as far south as Texas. The cold blast boosted heating demand across large swaths of the Lower 48 and propped up spot gas prices. On the supply front, offshore production was shut-in as Category 2 Hurricane Zeta arrived in the GOM Wednesday. Zeta made landfall in southeastern Louisiana packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, before moving across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Ahead of its arrival, 45% of the natural gas produced in the GOM had been shut-in, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. The threat to supply provided additional cash price support. Weekly prices spiked in several regions, with hubs in Texas and the Northeast leading the way. El Paso Permian jumped $2.450 to average $2.535, whileWaha climbed $2.385 to $2.395. In the East, Algonquin Citygate advanced $2.335 to $4.275, and PNGTS bounced $1.700 to $5.000.  NatGasWeather said new blasts of cold could support demand early in the first week of November. The Energy Information Administration said that U.S. stocks rose by 29 Bcf for the week ending Oct. 23. Markets had anticipated a larger build of as much as 46 Bcf. NGI had projected a 42 Bcf injection.Bespoke Weather Services said the 29 Bcf number suggested that recently higher prices were not yet curbing demand. Prices could climb higher in coming weeks if Mother Nature cooperates with further blasts of unseasonably cold air later in November.For the week covered by EIA’s latest storage report, strong liquified natural gas (LNG) levels, with feed gas deliveries above 8 Bcf, helped drive demand and keep injections low.Total working gas in storage for the week rose to 3,955 Bcf. That was 285 Bcf above year-earlier levels and 289 Bcf above the five-year average, according to EIA. A week earlier, the surpluses to the year-ago and five-year average were well above 300 Bcf.Analysts said that, in addition to weather, rising demand for U.S. LNG exports to fuel heating needs in Asia and Europe could help soak up supply and support prices moving into winter. LNG feed gas volumes inched up further early Friday after topping 9.5 Bcf/d a day earlier, led by rising output at Sabine Pass — 4.1 Bcf/d — according to EBW Analytics Group. Lifted by the LNG momentum, futures finished the week on a high note. The December Nymex contract gained 5.3 cents day/day and settled at $3.354/MMBtu. January advanced 5.2 cents to $3.469.

 Opinion: Natural gas has less than a decade to figure out its carbon problem ---Over the past decade, natural gas has been lauded as North America’s transition fuel — the abundant, cheaper, cleaner way to pivot from coal to a future of low-carbon fuels and renewables. By the end of 2019, natural gas’ share of the fuels used to generate electricity had grown to 38 percent, up from 24 percent in 2010. That replacement of coal with natural gas helped utilities reduce carbon emissions by 4.6 billion metric tons between 2010 and 2018, Oliver Wyman calculations show — a monumental achievement at a time when power consumption was increasing. Oliver Wyman, an international consulting firm, estimates that coal will be eliminated from the mix of fuels used in power generation by 2031 — at the latest. The problem for natural gas: Coal is now being replaced by even cleaner, and in recent years, cheaper, renewable energy. Once that transition from coal is complete, if not before, all eyes will turn to natural gas as it takes on the mantle of the biggest carbon emitter still in use in power generation. And the calls to eliminate natural gas — an agenda that is already being pushed by some — will intensify.  When the per megawatt-hour lifetime cost of wind-generated electricity fell below the comparable cost of natural gas generation in 2019, these demands became achievable. The only hurdle left for renewables is creating enough storage for solar and wind energy, a necessity increasingly recognized by many producers and investors. While Oliver Wyman estimates that 2039 is the earliest comprehensive storage coverage for renewables can be developed, there could be enough storage by 2025 to start pushing natural gas out of the generation mix and into significant decline. By 2034, enough storage will likely have been built to allow utilities to rely almost entirely on renewables for power generation, except perhaps during extreme peaks in power usage, Oliver Wyman data show. The choices for natural gas Where does that leave natural gas? Natural gas and power generation are strongly linked. Natural gas is the largest fuel source for power generation, and power generation is also the largest use of natural gas, accounting for up to 62 percent of downstream gas use, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. If no action is taken to change natural gas’ current trajectory, renewables will dominate the generation mix across the United States and Canada by the end of the decade. This will narrow the share provided by natural gas to potentially less than 10 percent, according to our data. We estimate that such a dramatic reduction in natural gas’ share of the generation mix could cause the destruction of as much as $4.7 trillion of the industry’s value by 2050 — and that’s from well head to turbine. It shouldn’t be surprising as it’s a phenomenon already well underway in coal and beginning to be seen in oil assets.

DTE to spin off its natural gas pipeline, storage business - Detroit-based DTE Energy announced Tuesday that it plans to unload its natural gas pipeline and storage subsidiary, DTE Midstream, by spinning off the business to be its own publicly traded company. Midstream, which would keep its headquarters in Detroit, owns more than 2,300 miles of pipeline across the Midwest and Northeast and in Louisiana. DTE said the separation isn't expected to have any "adverse impact" on DTE customers or customer rates. DTE bought much of the Midstream pipeline in 2016 and 2019 deals valued at $1.3 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively. The pipeline deals were described at the time as efforts to further diversify DTE's business beyond electricity provision. When the Midstream transaction is done, DTE would get about 90% of its operating earnings from its core utility business versus 70% today. The transaction was hinted at earlier this month by Bloomberg News, which reported that other power companies have been retreating from the pipeline business after having bought natural gas infrastructure in past years in a search for growth. In a call Tuesday morning with Wall Street analysts, DTE executives said the Midstream spinoff will "unlock significant shareholder value." Asked why the utility chose to make Midstream its own publicly trade company rather than simply sell the business to someone, DTE President and CEO Jerry Norcia said the spinoff strategy makes the most sense for shareholders. Under the Midstream separation plan, DTE shareholders will retain their current shares of DTE Energy stock and get a pro-rata dividend of shares of the new Midstream stock via a tax-free transaction.

Environmental groups react to state hiring outside expert to review Line 5 tunnel project - Environmental groups are responding to news that the state will retain an outside expert to review the Line 5 tunnel project. Last month, environmental groups and engineers raised concerns about the state’s ability to review Enbridge’s Line 5 tunnel project - worrying they didn’t employ experts who could provide an adequate review of the project. The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy has since announced it will retain an international civil engineering firm to provide a technical review. David Holtz is with Oil and Water Don’t Mix, an environmental group opposed to the tunnel project and continued operation of the Line 5 pipeline. “It’s a good step,” he said. “It’s a positive step potentially but it’s still an open question whether it will have any real meaning.” Holtz said it’s good the state is taking a review of the pipeline tunnel seriously - but it’s unclear how much the consultant’s analysis will factor into a decision on whether to greenlight the project. “It’s great that they hired consultants, engineers, to fill the gap in their own expertise,” he said. “But that doesn’t take away from the fact that their major responsibility is still to protect the Great Lakes. Every day that pipeline is there they are not doing it.’ The firm hired by the state to review the tunnel project did not respond to our request for comment. Separately, an Administrative law judge ruled last week that the Michigan Public Service Commission will have the authority to review the tunnel project, something Enbridge Energy, which owns the pipeline, had argued against.

U.S. offshore energy producers brace for Hurricane Zeta impact  (Reuters) - Energy firms and ports along the U.S. Gulf Coast prepared on Tuesday for another test as Hurricane Zeta, the 11th hurricane of the season, entered the Gulf of Mexico. BP BP.L, Chevron CVX.N and Royal Dutch Shell RDSa.L, among others, evacuated 157 offshore facilities and sharply cut production from the offshore region. Pipeline operator Enbridge ENB.TO evacuated two platforms and removed workers from a Louisiana natural gas processing plant. Some oil producers were pulling staff for at least the sixth time since June, a process made more difficult by the COVID-19 pandemic with workers required to be tested for the virus before returning to work. Energy producers on Tuesday shut nearly half the region’s oil output, or 914,811 barrels per day (bpd), and 1.5 billion cubic feet per day, or more than half its natural gas output, the U.S. offshore energy regulator said. U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore oil production accounts for about 17% of total U.S. crude oil output and 5% of total U.S. dry natural gas production. Zeta’s winds decreased to 65 miles per hour (100 kph) after sweeping across the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday but are forecast to restrengthen to 85 mph as its churns over the central Gulf of Mexico, the NHC said in a mid-day update. On Monday, it became the 11th hurricane of the Atlantic season, which on average has six. A hurricane watch was issued for parts of Louisiana to the Mississippi-Alabama border by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Zeta could hit the U.S. coast on Wednesday at or near hurricane strength, the NHC said. Energy ports from Baton Rouge to Pascagoula were operating under advisories warning of the potential for gale force winds. A Louisiana deep water oil export port said it was implementing its inclement weather plan. U.S. crude futures gained 1.8% in Tuesday trading after falling more than 3% on Monday over fears of rising COVID-19 cases and increased crude supplies.

Zeta Almost Halves US GOM Oil Output - The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) estimates that around 49.45 percent of oil production and around 55.35 percent of natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has been shut-in due to Tropical Storm Zeta. Personnel have been evacuated from a total of 154 production platforms in the region, which is equivalent to 23.95 percent of the 643 manned platforms in the area, the BSEE highlighted. Personnel are also said to have been evacuated from three non-dynamically positioned rigs in the U.S. GOM, which is equivalent to 30 percent of the ten rigs of this type currently operating in the region. A total of nine dynamically positioned rigs have moved out of the hurricane’s projected path as a precaution. This number represents 56.25 percent of the 16 dynamically positioned rigs currently operating in the U.S. GOM. In a statement posted on its Twitter page, the National Hurricane Center stated that a life-threatening storm surge is expected later today as the tropical storm impacts the Northern Gulf Coast. The BSEE reported on Tuesday that, as of Monday, just under 15 percent of oil production and six percent of gas production had been taken offline in the U.S. GOM due to Tropical Storm Zeta. In addition to Zeta, several storms have affected U.S. GOM production this year including Hurricane Delta, Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Laura and Tropical Storm Cristobal. The BSEE describes the Gulf of Mexico U.S. Outer Continental Shelf region as a “major focus” of the oil and gas industry. The organization says its GOM region staff oversee nearly 1,884 facilities and about ​17,507 miles of active pipeline in the area. Since its establishment in 2011, the BSEE has been the lead federal agency charged with improving safety and ensuring environmental protection related to the offshore energy industry, primarily oil and natural gas, on the U.S. OCS, the organization’s website states.

Historic hurricane season wreaked havoc on offshore drillers -   Offshore oil companies faced the most disruption from the 2020 hurricane season in over a decade, according to a new report. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, the second most active on record, forced offshore oil producers to curtail about 110,000 barrels per day. That’s the most since the 2008 hurricane season, which saw curtailments of nearly 140,000 barrels of oil a day. Before this year, hurricanes temporarily halted production on an average of about 20,000 barrels of oil per day, according to S&P Global Platts, an energy research firm. The report comes as Tropical Storm Zeta is barreling toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, expected to make landfall in Louisiana as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Wednesday afternoon. Offshore oil and gas operators have evacuated personnel from 154 platforms as of Tuesday, nearly a quarter of all the platforms in operation in the Gulf of Mexico, and shut in about half of the oil production from the Gulf, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Zeta is the 27th named tropical storm this year, just shy of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season that saw 28 named storms and production curtailments of 220,000 oil barrels per day. Meteorologists ran out of traditional names for hurricanes this year, turning to the Greek alphabet. This year's particularly active hurricane season has wreaked havoc on offshore oil and gas companies, which must temporarily halt production, move rigs and secure platforms and evacuate workers via helicopter whenever a tropical storm approaches. Talos Energy said it has shut in production for 28 days in the third quarter because of Hurricanes Hanna, Laura, Marco, Sally and Beta. The Houston-based offshore producer during the fourth quarter shut in production during Hurricane Delta for a week, the company reported earlier this month. Talos CEO Tim Duncan said it saw an average of seven days of production downtime due to hurricanes over the past five years. “If you shut in production eight days a year because of hurricanes, that’s not a big deal,” Duncan said earlier this month. “If you do that for 30 days, that’s a bigger deal. It’s frustrating for us and it’s frustrating for our employees.” Offshore oil and gas companies may face more disruption to operations as climate change causes hurricanes to become more frequent and intense in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Tech Climate Center scientists warned that hurricanes may become stronger and stall over land due to warmer air and ocean waters. Warming ocean temperatures increase the strength of hurricanes.

Much Too Much - Distillate Glut Challenges U.S. Refiners But Offers Contango Opportunity --For the past several months, U.S. refineries have been producing more distillate than demand warrants, resulting in a glut of distillate fuels, especially ultra-low-sulfur diesel and jet fuel. The disconnect between supply and demand has been particularly stark in the Gulf Coast region, where just a couple of weeks ago distillate stocks sat 39% above their 10-year average after coming perilously close to tank tops in August. The culprit, of course, is COVID-19, or more specifically the effects of the pandemic on air travel and the broader economy. Demand for motor gasoline rebounded more quickly than demand for ULSD and jet fuel, and refineries churned out more gasoline to keep up, but that results in more distillate too. Now, finally, there are signs that distillate stocks may be easing back down. Today, we discuss the build-up in ULSD and jet fuel stockpiles, the ways they might revert to the norm, and the potential for storing distillate now and selling it at a higher price later.This blog is based on research from Morningstar Commodities. A copy of the original report is available here. The collapse in crude oil prices earlier this year and COVID-19’s negative effects on demand for refined products put an unprecedented squeeze on U.S. refiners — a topic we first discussed back in March in Strange Brew. The net result was a miserable second quarter for the refining sector. As we said in Where Are You Going, not only did refiners produce less diesel, motor gasoline, and jet fuel in the April-through-June period than any quarter in recent memory, their refining margins were sharply lower than the historical range — a one-two punch that hit their bottom lines hard.  Refiners’ troubles didn’t end there. Persistently high distillate inventories this year are compounding refiners' woes by weighing on product prices and constraining processing levels. Total U.S. distillate stocks have been at or near record territory since April, according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and only dropped below their seasonal 10-year high at the end of September. Total inventory of 172 MMbbl on October 2 was 44 MMbbl higher than this time last year, but down about 1 MMbbl per week from a peak of 180 MMbbl in early August. The 172 MMbbl in storage represented 48 days of supply based on implied demand of 3.6 MMb/d. Total U.S. working storage capacity for distillates is 218 MMbbl, according to an EIA survey from March 31, 2020, meaning that storage was 79% full as of October 2.

Louisiana Ballot Measure Could Slash Oil and Gas Property Taxes That the State Already Subsidizes -  Lake Charles recently made national news on its own, as one of the first U.S. cities ever hit by back-to-back hurricanes just six weeks apart. Hurricane Laura’s sustained 150 mph winds left the city in ruins in late August, and residents had barely begun to clear those debris when Hurricane Delta dropped more than 15 inches of water on Lake Charles in early October. Lake Charles and other communities across Southwest Louisiana facing as much as $12 billion in hurricane damages to homes and businesses, and another $1.6 billion in agricultural and timber losses. So a new tax break for the state’s dominant oil and gas sector might not seem logical. But a measure on this year’s ballot could change the state constitution in a way that ultimately exempts the industry from property taxes in perpetuity.  The measure, called Constitutional Amendment 5, would allow local governments to make deals with manufacturers for up-front property tax payments into municipal tax coffers, in return for waiving future payments on new or substantially enlarged manufacturing facilities, as long as a two-thirds supermajority of both houses of the state legislature approved the deal.  If voters approve the measure, Louisiana’s $73 billion oil and natural gas industry, which the state has already blessed with substantial property tax subsidies, stands to save billions more.

Complaint says Enbridge's new $2.6 billion pipeline is no longer necessary - A Minnesota Indigenous environmental group told state utility regulators Tuesday that Enbridge has been adding considerable capacity to its existing oil pipelines in recent years, making the company’s controversial new $2.6 billion pipeline unnecessary. Honor the Earth, in a filing, asked the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to investigate Enbridge’s capacity additions, saying the company made no mention of such moves during extensive hearings for the pipeline, a replacement for its deteriorating Line 3. “It is difficult to see how (the new Line 3) is in the public interest in light of the apparent fact that Enbridge has already achieved (the pipeline’s) capacity addition goals through other less impactful means,” Honor the Earth said in a PUC filing. Calgary-based Enbridge has been adding capacity to its “mainline” across Minnesota through various efficiency improvements. “There have been several initiatives that Enbridge has implemented in recent years to optimize its pipeline network to better meet customer demands,” the company said in a statement. “We’ve talked about these optimizations and efficiency-led capacity increases in a variety of public forums.” Tuesday’s PUC filing is the latest missive in the six-year battle over the new pipeline. The existing Line 3 is corroding and operating at only 51% of capacity. The PUC reapproved the $2.6 billion new Line 3 earlier this year, though Enbridge is still waiting on several other state and federal permits. A new Line 3 would add 375,000 barrels per day to Enbridge’s Minnesota oil flow. Before economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic shrunk oil demand earlier this year, the mainline was pumping 2.8 million barrels per day. The mainline’s volume is now down to just over 2.4 million barrels per day, about what was considered capacity during PUC hearings a few years ago over the new pipeline. Honor the Earth claims in its filing that Enbridge did not disclose to the PUC the roughly 400,000 barrels per day in capacity additions to the PUC. Enbridge said in its statement that the company has been “transparent” throughout the Line 3 review process. Honor the Earth in its filing also lodged a complaint about capacity expansion proposals on two of the six pipelines that currently run across northern Minnesota to the company’s terminal in Superior, Wis. Those proposals, for Line 4 and Line 67, are currently under review by Wisconsin natural resource regulators. Enbridge filings in Wisconsin indicate the company plans on boosting the two pipelines’ throughput to “maximum design capacity,” adding another 178,400 barrels per day in oil flowing across Minnesota to Superior. Honor the Earth in its complaint says Line 4 and Line 67 should be recertified in Minnesota if they are expanded.

 US Oil's Merger Mania Won't End Well For Energy  -- The long-awaited shale patch consolidation has arrived, sparking another bout of merger mania in the energy industry. It’s reminiscent of the one in the late 1990s, just as the Internet bubble was exploding. But don’t expect the stocks to rally this time. Parallels between tech in the 1990s and today are common. But there’s been little mention of what the energy sector went through at the same time and how it suddenly looks so familiar. History’s repeating itself as it appears energy can’t attract investors -- again. Then as now, the backdrop to energy’s M&A boom is a collapse in oil prices. The difference this time, however, is the deals are happening at a quarter of the traditional premiums. During this pandemic era, four deals have already emerged: Chevron’s takeover of Noble Energy, ConocoPhillips’s acquisition of Concho Resources, Pioneer Natural Resources’s purchase of Parsley Energy and Devon Energy’s merger with WPX Energy. This appears to be just the beginning as rumors circulate of more deals to come. The economy has structurally changed since 2000, which makes tech’s acceleration look real and lasting. That’s not so for the energy industry, which staged a comeback in the early part of the century as tech dropped. But this time around, the sector faces worsening supply dynamics and a demand hit from which it’s likely to take years to recover. Supply dynamics were not favorable even before the pandemic. The American shale boom and cheating on OPEC+ production quotas created an oversupplied oil market. Trade risk added to worries for shale producers, which were already treading water. Since 2017, the pain has become clearer. Oil rallies have seldom spilled over into energy stocks beyond a brief increase in valuations spurred by private equity in 2016. Add the impact of the U.S. presidential election, and the risks multiply. In the final presidential debate, Democratic challenger Joe Biden advocated for a transition from oil to renewable energy. A potential fracking ban on federal lands, which makes up parts of the crucial Permian basin, presents more danger. It’s worth noting that China, the second-largest oil consumer behind the U.S., is moving aggressively toward that green energy transition and is establishing itself as a leader in electrification. Oil prices have largely traded in a range for nearly five months. Seeing so much M&A activity at low premiums tells us that the industry expects stagnation to continue since drastic shifts in crude prices could endanger the deals. In the short-term, stimulus prospects and a Covid-19 vaccine will likely lift oil prices, accelerate the rotation into cyclicals and perhaps even sustain gains for a while. More deals also are likely, which could boost interest in the sector. But in the long-term, expect energy to revert back to its multi-year downtrend as investors keep buying growth, consolidation shrinks the industry and the rise of ESG investing weighs on oil stocks 

Why is Michael Bloomberg giving $2.6 million to elect a railroad commissioner in Texas? -Oil and gas companies burn off billions of cubic feet of natural gas into the atmosphere every year in Texas alone. It’s both wasteful — the gas could be used to power the state’s populous cities many times over — and a major source of climate-warming pollution. Nevertheless, the Texas Railroad Commission, the state agency that regulates the industry, has largely sanctioned the practice, rubber-stamping applications from companies that want to engage in unlimited flaring.An under-the-radar election for one of the commission’s three seats could change all that. On November 3, Democrat Chrysta Castañeda will face off against Republican Jim Wright, a South Texas businessman who runs an oilfield waste and recycling company. The odds are stacked against Castañeda: She’s running for a position that a Democrat hasn’t won in three decades. But with Democrats suddenly polling competitively up and down the ballot in Texas — not to mention a recent$2.6 million donation Castañeda’s campaign received from former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg — the oil and gas attorney from Dallas may have a fighting chance.If she wins, she may be in a position to get the commission to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in some of the largest oilfields in the country. For this reason, she calls the race “the most important climate election in the nation.”

Environmental groups sue EPA over 'failure' on industrial flare rules -  Ten environmental organizations, including Air Alliance Houston and Environment Texas, on Thursday filed a lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency, asserting that the agency has failed to bolster pollution rules for industrial sites. The suit claims that the EPA’s failure to update the standards for flaring, the practice of burning off excess gases to prevent more toxic pollution to escape, has increased emissions. The regulations target flaring at petrochemical facilities, gasoline terminals, natural gas processing plants, compressor stations and solid-waste landfills. The environmental groups say that operators don’t always conduct the practice correctly, leading to the release of gases that endanger public health and  that contribute to climate change. “Time and time again, EPA has admitted that flares operating under these outdated standards can release many times more toxic air pollutants into local communities than estimated,” said Adam Kron, senior attorney for the Environmental Integrity Project, the leading plaintiff in the suit, in a statement. “This can cause serious harm to public health.” The lawsuit claims that the EPA doesn't require operators to improve flaring procedures because the agency hasn't updated two key flaring pollution controls in decades; the Clean Air Act requires the agency review the rules once every eight years. The Environmental Integrity Project argues that the rules for flaring procedures have shown that they're not as effective as the EPA originally desired. For example, operators inject steam into flares to prevent smoking, but at times operators inject too much steam, which causes the flare to burn poorly and release toxic gases that should have been destroyed during combustion. A spokesperson for the EPA said the agency doesn't comment on pending litigation.

Colorado moves to ban routine natural gas flaring at oil wells - - Colorado may eliminate the practice of routinely burning off excess natural gas at oil wells, and the industry mainly supports the idea. The Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission proposes stopping permitted flaring of excess natural gas at wells and requiring companies to build gathering systems to capture the gas by early 2022. The percentage of gas flared in the state is second-lowest among major U.S. oil-producing states, according to the Colorado Oil & Gas Association. Major oil and gas producers told the COGCC they’ve invested in capturing the natural gas their oil wells produce, known as associated natural gas, instead of routinely burning it off. “We do not flare associated gas now and we will not flare associated gas in the future,” said Angela Zivkovich, health, safety and environment manager for Occidental Petroleum Corp. The Houston-based company (NYSE: OXY) is the largest oil and gas producer in the state. The COGCC commissioners have been taking testimony this week about flaring and other aspects of rule changes proposed as part of a larger overhaul of oil and gas regulation. The commission is slated to finalize flaring-related rule changes this week and then by mid-November formally vote on a broader package of rules changes. Smaller companies with oil wells outside the main oilfields of the Denver Julesburg Basin do flare excess gas. Oklahoma-based Sandridge Exploration & Production LLC, which operates oil wells in Jackson County in North Park, has burned off the majority of the natural gas its wells produce. It will have to build gathering systems unless the COGCC grants it a variance from the new rules. Flaring natural gas ballooned after 2009 as fracking and horizontal drilling drove a boom in oil well drilling in areas that didn’t have natural gas gathering infrastructure. Low natural gas prices that can make natural gas an unwanted byproduct of oil wells. Gas-gathering systems have mostly been built covering the Denver-Julesburg Basin, and natural gas flared as excess has become more rare. Routine flaring will go away entirely, but flaring will be allowed in emergencies, and some burning off of gas will be allowed. Nearly half the carbon dioxide produced by flaring at Colorado wells doesn’t come from burning off excess natural gas. It’s from enclosed burning of gas vapors produced by wells, according to a calculation of flaring data by the Audubon Society and wildlife group testifying at the hearing. They urged the COGCC to include enclosed combustion in the definition of flaring, saying it’s part of practices that produce the equivalent greenhouse gas pollution of 118,000 automobiles on Colorado roads.

INTERIOR: Grijalva warns 'business as usual' with Pendley risky -- Monday, October 26, 2020 -- House Natural Resources Chairman Raúl Grijalva is urging the Interior Department to slow down and "determine the consequences" of a federal judge's ruling striking down William Perry Pendley's 424-day tenure leading the Bureau of Land Management.

Trump reaches for oily lifeline – President Trump's campaign is making energy policy a prominent part of its closing swing state attacks against Joe Biden — especially in Pennsylvania, a state critical to Trump's reelection effort where he's trailing in the polls. Driving the news: Trump's efforts include a new ad in Pennsylvania alleging that his Democratic presidential rival would crush the state's gas industry, and his campaign has aggressively deployed surrogates talking about energy in recent days. Natural gas and oil are important industries in several competitive states. They include Pennsylvania, the nation's second-largest gas producer, as well as Ohio, which also has substantial gas production. Texas, the nation's largest oil-and-gas producer, hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee since 1976, but the race looks tight this year. The Trump campaign is seizing on Biden's remark in Thursday's debate that he would "transition away from the oil industry," though the former vice president said it would occur "over time" amid a move to renewables. They're also frequently alleging that Biden would seek to ban fracking. The claim inaccurately describes Biden's platform, which aims to end new oil-and-gas permitting on federal lands but doesn't seek a national ban. But his position has been unclear or appeared more aggressive multiple times, including a March debate with Sen. Bernie Sanders when Biden said, "No new fracking." His campaign later claimed it was only a reference to his existing stance about federal lands. Biden and his team have been looking to blunt the attacks over fracking and his line about the "transition" from oil. "I will not ban fracking. I said no fracking on federal land," Biden told an NBC affiliate while campaigning in Pennsylvania over the weekend, one of several denials that he'd seek a ban in recent days and weeks.  Fracking booms in Pennsylvania and Texas have been centered on private lands. But there's lots of production on federal acreage in western states like New Mexico and Colorado. Biden's claim about a transition from the oil industry is consistent with his longstanding plans to greatly accelerate adoption of carbon-free power and climate-friendly transportation. But his handling of the topic at the debate provided what Trump's campaign sees as a political opening, and the Biden campaign's aggressive response suggests they see some jeopardy.

Trump Weighs Executive Order to Show Support for Fracking – WSJ —President Trump is considering issuing an executive order mandating an economic analysis of fracking, according to senior administration officials, who say the initiative is aimed at highlighting his support for the energy industry in election battleground states such as Pennsylvania.The proposed order would ask government agencies to perform an analysis of fracking’s impact on the economy and trade and the consequences if the oil-and-gas extraction technique was banned, the officials said. It also would order those agencies to evaluate what more they can do to expand its use, possibly through land management or support of developing technology, they said.These people said details of the order were still under discussion, and a final decision on whether to even issue it hasn’t been made.White House spokesman Judd Deere declined comment on any potential executive action but said Mr. Trump “has prioritized all forms of domestic energy production which has led to America becoming energy independent.”If an order is issued, it would be unlikely to have any short-term impact on an energy industry struggling with an oil glut tied to the coronavirus pandemic.But the goal is to draw a political contrast between Mr. Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, his Democratic challenger in next Tuesday’s election. Mr. Biden has said he would oppose fracking on federal lands—a small part of U.S. production—but more broadly hascalled for the U.S. to move away from oil dependence to address the environmental harm of climate change. One aim of the proposed order would be to highlight the broader impact of fracking throughout a U.S.-based supply chain, especially in swing states critical to Mr. Trump’s victory, according to one of the senior officials and another person briefed on the plans.

Biden's energy plan would return US to 'state of dependence' on foreign nations: Brouillette - Fox Business --Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s energy plan would force the U.S. back into dependence on oil from the Middle East, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette argued Monday.Brouillette told Fox News Radio’s “The Brian Kilmeade Show" that the “amount of jobs lost would be enormous” under Biden's plan.During last week’s presidential debate, Biden said that he plans to “transition” away from the oil industry because “the oil industry pollutes significantly.”“It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time,” Biden continued.In three separate local news interviews in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania on Saturday, Biden stressed that he will not completely ban fracking, but would only ban fracking on federal land. Host Brian Kilmeade asked Brouillette on Monday, “Is it a big deal that Joe Biden wants to ban it and upon further review says just ban it on federal land?”“It’s an enormous deal,” Brouillette responded. “What it would do is move us back to dependence on foreign nations. It moves us back into a state of dependence on the Middle East.”The secretary added that Americans need to ask themselves the “fundamental question” if that’s “what we want to go back to?”During a 2019 Democratic primary debate, Biden was asked whether there would be "any place for fossil fuels, including coal and fracking, in a Biden administration?""No," Biden responded. "We would -- we would work it out. We would make sure it's eliminated and no more subsidies for either one of those, either -- any fossil fuel."Brouillette told Kilmeade that since Trump took office 2017, the U.S. has become a net exporter of energy and fracking had played an "enormous role" in that success. “His [President Trump's] goal at that point in time was to make us energy independent and that’s exactly what we’ve done,” Brouillette said.

North Dakota to Spend $16 Million in Pandemic Relief Funds on Fracking  - North Dakota has found a controversial use for federal coronavirus relief money: using it to fund fracking.  The state legislature voted Wednesday to reallocate $16 million in pandemic relief to pay $200,000 grants tooil companies to do fracking work on 80 incomplete wells, Inforum reported. "This is like a taxpayer bailout to the oil industry to get them to do something they would do anyway." leader of environmental group Dakota Resource Council Scott Skokos told InsideClimate News. "It's like corporate welfare at the highest level." The $16 million was part of a much larger $221 million in federal relief funds that the legislature voted to reallocate according to the budget approved by the North Dakota Emergency Commission Friday, Inforum and The Associated Press reported. The money was awarded to North Dakota via the CARES Act in March, but the state had not been able to spend it for its intended purpose, Inforum explained. Because there is a year-end deadline for the use of CARES funds, the state had to reassign it or lose it. However, the $16 million for fracking was the allocation that stirred controversy. That money had originally been intended to clean up abandoned oil and gas sites, InsideClimate News explained. But the approach of cold weather made the completion of the work by the end of the year impossible. The idea to use that money for fracking grants came from North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms. Helms argued that the grants would create jobs and revitalize the oil industry, which was hit hard by the drop in prices at the beginning of the pandemic, according to The Associated Press. Officials also said the grants would boost state revenue, which relies on oil money.But environmental groups and Democratic lawmakers criticized the decision. The Sierra Club called it "totally inappropriate," while lawmakers said the funds should go to more urgent needs. "We are at a point now where we are peaking every day as we try to battle this crisis, and I think any of the funds that we use need to be addressed to help us reduce the spread of this virus to help the lives and livelihoods of thousands of North Dakotans," Rep. Josh Boschee, D-Fargo, said, as Inforum reported. Skokos pointed to the irony of using money intended to clean up oil and gas wells to frack new ones. And he said the logic behind the decision was backwards. "They're giving taxpayer dollars to the oil industry to frack wells with the hope it will bring the state more taxpayer dollars," Skokos told InsideClimate News, "rather than taking the taxpayer dollars and actually using it to benefit taxpayers."

The $16 Million Was Supposed to Clean Up Old Oil Wells; Instead, It’s Going to Frack New Ones - North Dakota's top oil and gas regulator had a problem. With winter bearing down, his department had yet to spend $16 million in federal coronavirus relief funds earmarked for cleaning up abandoned oil and gas well sites across the state, and the arrival of cold weather would halt the work. If the money wasn't spent by the end of the year, the state would lose it. So Lynn Helms, director of the state's Department of Mineral Resources, proposed a different use for the funds: paying oil companies to hydraulically fracture new wells. The proposal landed in front of state lawmakers on Wednesday during a budget meeting that many members attended remotely, calling in from easy chairs and living rooms because of the state's surging coronavirus caseload. Despite pleas from some lawmakers that the money would be better spent helping nursing homes safely allow family visits or amplifying contact tracing, the committee approved Helms' request. Now North Dakota is poised to provide cash grants of up to $200,000 directly to any oil company that's ready to get to work. The state's oil development is stagnating along with the price of oil, which is too low to spur much fracking activity, and Helms said the grants will change that. They will more than pay for themselves with the additional tax revenues they'll generate, he said, and will help put back to work hundreds of people who once criss-crossed the western corner of the state, fracking oil wells. But state Rep. Joshua A. Boschee, a Democrat who voted against the proposal, said, "To divert funds away from addressing the public health needs of the citizens while this virus peaks is irresponsible." Scott Skokos, who heads the Dakota Resource Council, a local environmental group, said in an interview before the hearing that the repurposing of funds seemed to get things exactly backwards. Money that was supposed to clean up old oil wells will instead be used to bring new ones to life. And if the $16 million can't go toward that clean up because of the weather, he said, what about sending it directly to some of the state's residents who are struggling to pay bills or keep businesses open, as coronavirus cases rise to some of the highest levels in the country? "They're giving taxpayer dollars to the oil industry to frack wells with the hope it will bring the state more taxpayer dollars," Skokos said, "rather than taking the taxpayer dollars and actually using it to benefit taxpayers."M

 Brine, oil spilled in Mountrail County recovered Brine, oil spilled in Mountrail County recovered — An estimated 17,640 gallons of produced water and 4,200 gallons of oil spilled Tuesday, Oct. 27, at an oil well in Mountrail County, N.D., according to a news release from the state Department of Environmental Quality.Produced water, or brine, is a mixture of saltwater, oil and sometimes drilling fluids that is created during oil and gas production.Houston-based EOG Resources reported that the spill about 5 miles northwest of Parshall, N.D., occurred due to a valve failure. The company reports the spilled brine and oil were contained to the site of the well and have been recovered.Department officials will continue inspecting the site and monitoring remediation efforts, according to the release.

 County Lines- 25-barrel crude oil spill reported at HVI Cat Canyon facility - Roughly two dozen barrels of crude oil spilled from an oil facility on Zaca Station Road near Los Alamos on Tuesday, although the leakage was contained. The spill was reported shortly before 6 a.m. at an HVI Cat Canyon oil facility in the 5000 block of Zaca Station Road, according to Santa Barbara County Fire Capt. Daniel Bertucelli. A fire engine and captain from the County Fire Department's Oil and Gas Division responded to the incident. The spill occurred when a sample cock was left open and allowed leakage from about 25 barrels, which was captured in a secondary container and did not reach any waterways or sensitive environmental habitats, according to Bertucelli. Cleanup was expected to be completed by noon Tuesday. Notification to stage agencies was made at the scene, Bertucelli said, as the incident continues to be investigated.

Trump administration approves ConocoPhillips’ Willow oil project in National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska - Anchorage Daily News --The Trump administration on Tuesday approved ConocoPhillips' large oil project, called the Willow project, in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. The decision sets the stage for construction near a prized conservation area in a largely undeveloped region on the North Slope that has seen increased industry attention in recent years.The federal government’s record of decision was signed Monday by Interior Secretary David Bernhardt. It will allow up to three drill sites, a processing facility and gravel roads and pipelines.Two more drill sites and additional roads and pipelines, also proposed by ConocoPhillips, can be considered later, the federal Bureau of Land Management said.Conservation groups decried the proposal as a threat to the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, a wetland complex in the 23-million-acre reserve that supports migratory birds and calving grounds for the Teshekpuk Lake caribou herd.BLM said in a statement Tuesday that Willow could produce up to 160,000 barrels of oil daily. Over 30 years, about 600 million barrels could be produced, helping offset dwindling oil production and state revenues in Alaska, the agency said. Construction would produce more than 1,000 jobs and lead to more than 400 jobs during operations, BLM said. Willow, as well as the Pikka oil project that company Oil Search is pursuing, are large new discoveries in a region west of Prudhoe Bay. The federal government set aside the petroleum reserve nearly a century ago for its energy potential, but did not hold lease sales there for many years.

 Exxon announces U.S. job cuts, global workforce could see 15% reduction - Exxon said Thursday that it intends to reduce its U.S. staff by around 1,900 employees, with global workforce reductions potentially rising to as much as 15% as the energy giant continues to see its operations pressured by the coronavirus pandemic. The U.S. layoffs will occur through a mix of voluntary and involuntary programs. Exxon said the reduction is part of ongoing reorganization efforts aimed at improving efficiency and reducing costs. "These actions will improve the company's long-term cost competitiveness and ensure the company manages through the current unprecedented market conditions," a statement from the company said. "The impact of COVID-19 on the demand for ExxonMobil's products has increased the urgency of the ongoing efficiency work." Earlier in October Exxon said it was cutting its European operations by 1,600 positions through the end of 2021. An Exxon spokesperson said that the company is conducing country-by-country reviews, which could result in a 15% reduction in its global workforce. The company anticipates 14,000 contractors and employees to be affected by the already announced programs. As of the end of 2019 Exxon had a global workforce of 88,300, which included 13,300 contractors. The announcement comes as the oil and gas industry continues to feel the pain of the coronavirus pandemic. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, has recovered since plunging into negative territory for the time time on record in April, but the contract still trades at a deep discount to prior prices. On Thursday WTI traded around $36. As recently as January it traded north of $62 per barrel. Amid the decline in prices, energy companies have taken drastic measures to improve their balance sheets, including reducing staff and in some cases suspending dividends. Exxon has repeatedly said that its dividend remains a priority. On Wednesday the company maintained its fourth quarter dividend at 87 cents per share, although this was the first time since 1982 that it didn't raise its payout.

Exxon to cut 14,000 jobs as pandemic hits oil demand - Exxon Mobil said on Thursday it could cut its global workforce by about 15%, including deep white-collar staff reductions in the United States, as the COVID-19 pandemic batters energy demand and prices. Exxon and other oil producers have been slashing costs due to a collapse in oil demand and ill-timed bets on new projects. The top U.S. oil company earlier outlined more than $10 billion in budget cuts this year. [nL1N2HK2P2] “The impact of COVID-19 on the demand for Exxon Mobil’s products has increased the urgency of the ongoing efficiency work,” the company said in a statement. An estimated 14,000 employees globally, or 15%, could lose jobs, including contractors, spokesman Casey Norton said. The figure will include loses from restructurings, retirements and performance-based exits. Exxon had about 88,300 workers, including 13,300 contractors, at the end of last year. The company is not targeting a fixed number of jobs but does expect the result of its ongoing business review to eliminate about 15% of its current staffing. Exxon, which has struggled in recent years to regain footing after misplaced bets on shale gas and Russia exploration, lost nearly $1.7 billion in the first six months of the year. It is expected to report a record-setting third straight quarterly loss on Friday, and its third-quarter loss could reach $1.19 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES. Exxon said the 1,900 U.S. job cuts will come mainly from its Houston-area campus, the headquarters for its U.S. oil and gas businesses.

BP beats third-quarter estimates and swings back to profit on improving oil demand— Energy giant BP on Tuesday reported a small profit for the third quarter, beating analyst expectations as the company benefited from stronger oil prices and the absence of significant exploration write-offs. Third-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, came in at $100 million. That compared with a loss of $6.7 billion in the second quarter, and $2.3 billion profit for the third quarter of 2019. Analysts at Refinitiv had expected BP to report a third-quarter loss of $347 million. It announced a dividend of 5.25 cents per share for the quarter. BP said recovering oil and gas prices and demand had helped the firm swing back to profit in the third quarter. This was partly offset, however, by a "significantly lower oil trading result." Shares of BP rose more than 2% during early morning deals. The results come as energy market sentiment remains subdued, with an upsurge in global coronavirus cases hampering the prospects of oil demand growth. A wave of new Covid-19 infections has prompted some countries to impose fresh restrictions as winter looms. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded $40.70 a barrel on Tuesday morning, up around 0.6% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $38.78, up more than 0.5%. Both contracts slipped over 3% in the previous session. "Having set out our new strategy in detail, our priority is execution and, despite a challenging environment, we are doing just that — performing while transforming," Bernard Looney, chief executive officer of BP, said in a statement. Alongside its second-quarter earnings in August, the energy company announced a pivot to a new strategy, saying the move would help the firm shift to clean energy in line with its plan to become a net-zero-carbon company by 2050 or sooner. BP had said that, within 10 years, it planned to raise its annual low carbon investment 10-fold to around $5 billion a year. It also aimed to have developed around 50 gigawatts of net renewable generating capacity by 2030 – a 20-fold increase from 2019.

Equinor LNG Plant Could Be Down for a Year - Surveys of damage from a late-September fire at the Hammerfest LNG plant in northern Norway will require the facility to be closed for up to 12 months for repairs, Equinor reported Monday. “Safety is the first priority and we will not start the plant until we are sure that it can be done in a safe way,” remarked Andreas Sandvik, Hammerfest plant director, in a written statement emailed to Rigzone. “Therefore, we have worked systematically and thoroughly to survey the damage after the fire and assess the technical condition of the plant.” According to Equinor, the fire damaged the air intake on one of the plant’s five power turbines. Moreover, it pointed out that seawater from fire extinguishing operations damaged plant auxiliary systems such as electrical equipment and cables. The company noted the shutdown duration will hinge on delivery time for necessary equipment, along with restrictions tied to COVID-19. In an Oct. 2 written statement, Irene Rummelhoff, Equinor’s executive vice president of Marketing, Midstream and Processing, observed that “no one was injured in the fire or in fighting it.” Cautioning that much inspection work remains and a significant amount of uncertainty still exists, Sandvik noted Monday that Equinor’s “best estimate” is that it may take until Oct. 1, 2021, for Hammerfest LNG to resume production. “We will use the shutdown period to also carry out other maintenance and repair work planned for 2021,” Sandvik added. “This includes both ongoing maintenance and maintenance planned in a planned turnaround next spring.” Equinor, Norway’s Petroleum Safety Authority and the police have launched independent investigations of the fire, the company stated. “The fire at Hammerfest LNG was a serious incident,” concluded Grete B. Haaland, senior vice president for Equinor’s onshore facilities. “The various investigations into the incident will be important in order to identify measures that will prevent similar incidents from happening again.”

Brazils Navy creates commission to deal with marine pollution - (Xinhua) -- The Brazilian Navy has created a commission to monitor marine pollution from oil spills and other pollutants, according to a resolution published in Wednesday's edition of the Government Gazette. The so-called Scientific and Technical Commission for the Monitoring and Neutralization of Marine Pollution Impacts by Hydrocarbons and Other Pollutants in the Blue Amazon, will be coordinated by the navy's General Directorate of Nuclear and Technological Development. Blue Amazon is a political-strategic concept that encompasses Brazil's coastline and territorial waters, with the aim of making the population aware of the importance of maritime territory. The commission, the text explains, will act as an advisory body to the commander of the navy and other government agencies, to promote dialogue, leadership and coordination of measures to address marine pollution and events such as the 2019 oil spill. In September of last year, tons of oil washed ashore, polluting beaches, mangroves and other habitats along Brazil's northeast coast, as well as the coasts of the states of Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro to the south. The source of the spill was never determined. The commission is expected to recommend ways to improve prevention, surveillance and control of environmental disasters at sea and along the coast, to protect ecosystems, livelihoods and food sources.

 DA wants Transnet to account for crude oil spill into river - The DA are calling for Transnet to be held accountable for a catastrophic environmental disaster this week after a “pipeline theft incident” saw thousands of litres of crude oil spill into Durban's Umbilo river. DA shadow deputy minister for environmental affairs, forestry and fisheries Hannah Shameema Winkler said the party would ensure that eThekwini municipality and KwaZulu-Natal provincial authorities held Transnet to account. “An immediate investigation must be undertaken into the allegations of Transnet’s ailing pipeline infrastructure as the cause of the oil spill. An environmental assessment of the damage must be commissioned and a plan for the river’s rehabilitation drafted, in consultation with environmental experts, to save the Umbilo river.” It remains unclear when oil began spewing out of a Transnet pipeline in the Bellair area, south of Durban, but residents reported smelling oil in the area last week. On Tuesday a team from Transnet, environmentalists from the provincial department and activists visited the area to assess the spill. MEC for economic development, tourism and environmental affairs Nomusa Dube-Ncube said Transnet would be given 14 days to submit a report on how crude oil spilt into the river. Dube-Ncube, who was expected to revisit the scene on Saturday, said an instruction was given to remove all the oil-tainted litter in the mangrove area as this would become a source of secondary contamination. “Human settlements, water and sanitation raised concern of groundwater contamination which must be confirmed by geohydrology studies. A section 20 directive in terms of the National Water Act has been issued to address river cleanup measures for both surface and groundwater,” she said.Dube-Ncube appealed to communities to report suspicious tankers or trucks near Transnet pipelines as they were involved in illegal activities. “As reported extensively, this year alone there have been 80 incidents of the extraction of petroleum from pipelines and only one conviction in court a few weeks ago. Last year there were more than 100 incidents. In the last incident, more than 60,000 litres of crude oil were lost,” she said.

Oil spill from sunken ship to not affect environment: agency (CNA) Oil spillage from a freighter that sunk in waters off the coast of Kaohsiung on Friday are not expected to cause an environmental emergency, Taiwan's Ocean Conservation Administration (OCA) said Sunday. The Tuvalu-registered Seatran Ferry 12 lost power and sunk in open seas some 28 nautical miles southwest of Kaohsiung. Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) later managed to rescue five crewmen, but the five others on the ship were still missing as of Sunday afternoon. All the crew members are believed to be Thai citizens, according to the CGA. While the CGA is continuing its search for the missing crew, Deputy OCA Director-General Sung Hsin-chen (宋欣真) said the OCA has been monitoring the oil that leaked from the vessel. According to the OCA, the freighter in question had 36 metric tons of diesel oil and 500 kilograms of lubricating oil in storage. An OCA drone found that the sea surface affected by the leak from the sunken ship was estimated at about one kilometer by 50 meters as of 5 a.m. Saturday. By 1 p.m. the same day, the size of the slick caused by the leak had been significantly reduced, according to the OCA. Sung said the OCA ran an oil spill model that gives predictions of the movement of spilled oil and found that it is heading south-southwest away from the site of the sunken ship. Given the fact that diesel oil vaporizes easily, the OCA believed that the oil spill would not seriously affect the ecology of nearby waters, Sung said. Even so, the OCA is working closely with the CGA and other government agencies to monitor the oil slick and is doing its best to contain it to minimize its possible environmental impact. Meanwhile, the OCA said another ship that ran aground off Kaohsiung, the Chih Hai 8, is ready to be removed from the site after the ship's owner cleaned up the cargo ship's spilled oil.

Oil drops on rising virus cases, increasing Libyan output - Oil prices fell on Monday, extending last week's losses, as increasing coronavirus cases in the United States and Europe raised worries about energy demand, while Libya's fast growing production also weighed on prices. Brent was down $1.21, or 2.9%, to trade at $40.55 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $1.27, or 3.2%, to trade at $38.58 . Both contracts fell almost 2.5% last week. The United States reported its highest number yet of new coronavirus infections in two days through Saturday, while in France new cases hit a record of more than 50,000 on Sunday. Italy and Spain imposed fresh restrictions to curb the virus. The rising number of cases "not only highlight the risks posed by immediate transport restrictions, but also dampen long-term demand expectations," said Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg. On the supply side, Libya's National Oil Corp (NOC) said it had lifted force majeure on the El-Feel oilfield. NOC said on Friday Libyan production would reach 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in four weeks, a quicker ramp-up than many analysts had predicted. "In an environment where there are renewed worries over the demand outlook, the last thing the market needs right now is additional supply," said Warren Patterson, ING's head of commodities strategy. OPEC+, the group of producers including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, is also set to increase output by 2 million bpd in January 2021 after cutting production by a record amount earlier this year. "OPEC+ must not be careless and have to address the issue of the extra barrels appearing in the market, otherwise the days of relatively stable oil prices will be numbered," said oil broker PVM's Tamas Varga. Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated last week he may agree to extending OPEC+ oil production reductions. In the United States, energy companies increased their rig count by five to take the total to 287 in the week to Oct. 23, the most since May, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. The rig count is an indicator of future supply. Still, investors increased their net long positions in U.S. crude futures and options during the week through Oct. 20, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday.

Oil drops 3% as virus infections, Libyan oil output rebound (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 3% on Monday, extending last week’s losses as coronavirus cases continued to surge in the United States and Europe, while Libya’s rebound in crude production raised fears of oversupply.  The United States reported its highest number yet of new coronavirus infections in two days through Saturday, while in France new cases hit a record of more than 50,000 on Sunday. Italy and Spain imposed fresh restrictions to curb the virus. “It’s a dark Monday in the oil market,” y. “We have long warned that a ‘second wave’ of strict coronavirus restriction measures could be re-imposed, and it’s now happening for real.” Brent dropped $1.31, or 3.1%, to settle at $40.46 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $1.29, or 3.2%, to settle at $38.56 a barrel. Both contracts fell almost 2.5% last week. Libya’s National Oil Corp (NOC) on Monday ended force majeure on the remaining facilities closed by an eight-month blockade of oil exports by eastern forces. NOC said on Friday that Libyan production would reach 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in coming weeks, a quicker ramp-up than many analysts had predicted. That could complicate efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to restrict supply to cope with lackluster demand. “The last thing the market needs right now is additional supply,”

 Oil selloff pauses, but outlook shaky on surging coronavirus cases, supply woes - Oil prices eked out small gains on Tuesday after sharp losses, but sentiment remained subdued as a surge in global coronavirus cases hit prospects for crude demand while supply is rising. Brent crude was up 19 cents, or 0.5%, at $40.65 a barrel by 0324 GMT. U.S. oil gained 15 cents, or 0.4%, at $38.71 a barrel. Both contracts fell more than 3% on Monday. A lack of progress on agreeing a U.S. coronavirus relief package added to market gloom, although U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Monday she hoped a deal can be reached before the Nov. 3 elections. A wave of coronavirus infections sweeping across the United States, Russia, France and many other countries has undermined the global economic outlook, with record numbers of new cases forcing some countries to impose fresh restrictions as winter looms. "We think demand from this point onwards is really going to struggle to grow. COVID-19 restrictions are all part of that," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) commodities analyst Vivek Dhar. CBA expects U.S. oil to average $38 and Brent to average $41 in the fourth quarter this year. Prices got some support from a potential drop in U.S. production as oil companies began shutting offshore rigs with the approach of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday the worst is over for the crude market. But his comment contradicted an earlier remark from OPEC's secretary general, who said any oil market recovery may take longer than hoped as coronavirus infections rise around the world. Meanwhile, Libyan production is expected to reach 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming weeks, the country's national oil company said on Friday, a quicker return than many analysts had predicted. That is likely to complicate efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to restrict output to offset weak demand. OPEC+ – made up of OPEC and allies including Russia – is planning to increase production by 2 million bpd from the start of 2021 after record output cuts earlier this year. An analyst survey by Reuters ahead of data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday estimated that U.S. crude stocks rose in the week to Oct. 23, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell.

Oil Rises 2% on U.S. Gulf Shutdowns, Outlook Weak (Reuters) - Crude settled higher on Tuesday as companies shut down some U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production ahead of an approaching storm, although surging coronavirus infections and rising Libyan supply limited gains. Companies including BP , Chevron , Shell and Equinor ASA evacuated rigs or closed facilities. So far producers have shut 16%, or 294,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil output due to Zeta, which weakened to a tropical storm on Tuesday from a hurricane on Monday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. Brent crude closed up 75 cents, or 1.9%, at $41.21 per barrel by 1:22 EDT (1722 GMT). U.S. oil gained $1.01 cents, or 2.6%, to $39.57. Both contracts fell more than 3% on Monday. The storm-induced bump in prices may be short-lived, however, with demand expected to weaken anew with coronavirus cases rising. "We have a lot of weakness...no vaccine, no stimulus, and the very real possibility of a contested election in a couple days, and a stock market that won't react positively to that," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Libya's production should rebound to 1 million bpd in coming weeks, complicating efforts by other OPEC members and allies to restrict output. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, are planning to increase production by 2 million bpd from January after record output cuts this year. That would take overall reductions to roughly 5.7 million bpd - still an enormous amount by the standards of major oil producers, but it may not be enough to offset weak demand. Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking last Thursday, did not rule out extending the cuts for longer. "As the virus continues to spread, the odds of additional OPEC + production tends to diminish in helping to provide some balance to the market," . The latest weekly U.S. oil inventory figures, due later on Tuesday and on Wednesday, are expected to show rising supplies. Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude stocks to rise by about 1.1 million barrels.

WTI Extends Plunge After Big Crude Build, Production Rebound -  Oil prices were hammered overnight, accelerating after API reported an unexpectedly large crude build. European lockdown fears has ignited demand concerns and inventory data is suggesting that is already funneling into physical stores. API

• Crude +4.557mm (+1.2mm) - biggest build since May
• Cushing +136k
• Gasoline +2.252mm
• Distillates -5.333mm

DOE

• Crude +4.32mm (+1.2mm) - biggest build since May
• Cushing -422k
• Gasoline -892k (-400k exp)
• Distillates -4.491mm (-2mm exp)

Official DoE data confirmed API's reported larger than expected crude build but Gasoline saw a draw...  Bloomberg reports that total crude stockpiles, including both the commercial and strategic inventory, rose by 3.66 million barrels, with a 4.32 million barrel build in commercial inventories tempered by a further 658,000 barrels withdrawn from the SPR. That’s the first build in seven weeks and only the second since mid-July. Graphics Source: Bloomberg A busy storm season has left production-monitoring a thankless task and Zeta may make next week's data even worse... Another hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico helped produce a rise in prices yesterday, but the reaction appeared to be muted as forecasts began to show the storm would miss major production facilities.“A resurgence in COVID-19 cases in Europe and North America has stopped the recovery in demand in its tracks,” ANZ Research said in a note. “If market conditions worsen, (OPEC+) will have no choice but to delay the increase of quotas by a month or two at its meeting on December 1,” ANZ said.WTI was trading just above $37 ahead of the official EIA data and extended losses on the weak data...

Oil drops more than 5% to three-week low as coronavirus cases surge - Oil prices fell over 5% to a three-week low on Wednesday as surging coronavirus infections in the United States and Europe are leading to renewed lockdowns, fanning fears that the unsteady economic recovery will deteriorate. Brent futures fell $2.12, or 5.15%, to $39.08 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 5.5%, or $2.18, lower at $37.39 per barrel, its lowest level in three weeks. That puts both benchmarks on track for their lowest closes since Oct. 2. Crude price declines mirrored downturns in other risk-asset markets, as U.S. stock indexes were all lower, with the S&P 500 down 2.7%. The safe-haven U.S. dollar rose 0.5% on prospects of national lockdowns in Germany and France to fight the pandemic. The stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies, which traders said weighed on crude prices. The United States, Russia, France and other countries have registered record numbers of COVID-19 cases in recent days and European governments have introduced new curbs to try to rein in the fast-growing outbreaks. Adding pressure to oil prices, U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week as production surged in a record build, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. "Crude oil domestic production number is up a crazy amount – why would producers do that? That's not good, as it implies we will have a lot of crude oil for a long time coming out of the ground," said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. Traders said crude prices were also hit by fading prospects for a quick deal on a new U.S. stimulus, and increasing oil output from Libya. On Tuesday U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged that a coronavirus economic relief package was unlikely until after next Tuesday's election. Libya's production is expected to rebound to 1 million barrels per day in the coming weeks. All that bearish news, overshadowed the bullish shutdown of around half of U.S. offshore Gulf of Mexico production ahead of Hurricane Zeta, which is expected to slam into the Gulf Coast later Wednesday.

Oil prices post lowest finish in about 5 months as rising coronavirus cases underline demand fears - Oil futures declined Thursday to post their lowest settlement in roughly five months, as rising COVID-19 cases sparked tighter restrictions on activity in Europe and underlined worries about the outlook for the U.S. and global economic recovery. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery fell $1.22, or 3.3%, to settle at $36.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest settlement for a front-month contract since June 1, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Month to date, prices were lower by roughly 10%. December Brent crude , the global benchmark, lost $1.47, or 3.8%, at $37.65 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, with prices for the front-month contract finishing at their lowest since May 29. "Clearly this latest wave of COVID-19 will weigh somewhat on oil demand, and with ICE Brent now trading just below $40 [a barrel], OPEC+ will likely be under pressure to take action when they meet at the end of November," . For now, that means the OPEC+ alliance likely will roll over existing output cuts into 2021, forgoing a relaxation of curbs scheduled for January, he said, a move that would also help offset the surge in production by Libya. However, the U.S. presidential election remains a wild card, with a potential victory by Democratic challenger Joe Biden over President Donald Trump opening the way to a return to the Iranian nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions that could bring between 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil supply back on to the market, he said.  Oil fell sharply Thursday as France and Germany imposed tighter restrictions in response to the rising number of COVID-19 cases. The U.S. reported 79,000 new cases on Wednesday, the second day in a row that the figure topped 70,000, as several states reported a jump in infections, according to The Wall Street Journal (link). Oil traders looked past the production disruptions caused by Hurricane Zeta, which made landfall in Louisiana Wednesday as a Category 2 storm. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement on Thursday estimated that 84.8% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico had been shut-in by the storm, along with around 57.6% of natural-gas production.

Oil falls on demand concerns, posts second monthly decline (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday and posted a second consecutive monthly drop as rising COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States heightened concerns over the outlook for fuel consumption. Brent crude LCOc1 dropped 19 cents to settle at $37.46 a barrel, after touching a five-month low of $36.64 in the previous session. The front-month Brent contract expired on Friday and the January contract LCOc2 settled down 32 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 38 cents to settle at $35.79 a barrel, after dipping to its lowest since June on Thursday at $34.92. WTI fell 11% for the month, while Brent dropped 10%. Leaders in France and Germany have ordered their countries back into lockdown, as a massive second wave of coronavirus infections threatened to overwhelm Europe before the winter. The United States also faces a surge of cases, breaking its single-day record for new infections. “Many nations with high oil consumption across the world are seeing infection levels that they didn’t have even during the first wave,” said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Rystad Energy’s senior oil markets analyst. “These infection levels are destined to bite oil demand, as traffic will be curbed to a minimum during the coming lockdowns.” Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, had planned to raise output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January. However, top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia are in favor of maintaining the group’s current output reduction of about 7.7 million bpd into next year in the face of lockdowns in Europe and rising Libyan oil output. OPEC+ is scheduled to hold a policy meeting over Nov. 30 and Dec. 1. “The outcome has the potential to send oil prices $10/bbl in either direction,” PVM analysts said of the meeting. In the United States, the oil and natural gas rig count rose in October for the third straight month and drillers added the most rigs in a month since May 2018, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co BKR.N said on Friday. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Oct. 27 by 36,589 contracts to 287,723, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

Oil sinks to five-month low, posts worst week since April on demand concerns - Oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday, extending losses and on track for a second monthly fall, on growing concerns that the rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States could hurt fuel consumption. Brent crude slipped for a third day and settled 19 cents, or 0.5%, lower at $37.46 per barrel, after touching a five-month low in the previous session. December Brent contract expires on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 38 cents, or 1.1%, lower at a five month low of $35.79 per barrel. Prices had swung between parity and a more than 2% decline during Friday's session as the "market is anxious" over renewed lockdowns in Europe and U.S. elections next week, a Singapore-based oil trader said. OCBC's economist Howie Lee said: "Selling pressure is piling up again." "Numbers don't look good fundamentally and lockdowns not helping." The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are expected to raise their output by 2 million bpd in January as part of their production agreement. However, top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia are in favour of maintaining the group's output reduction of about 7.7 million bpd currently into next year amid lockdowns in Europe while Libya has resumed production. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 to set policy. "With a European slowdown jeopardising global consumption and the return of Libyan production, the onus must now fall on OPEC+ to reconsider their 2 million barrel per day production increases in January," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific, at OANDA in Singapore. Global coronavirus cases rose by a single-day record of half a million on Wednesday prompting governments across Europe to impose mobility restrictions again to curb the spread. While that has reduced mobility and fuel consumption within Europe, demand in the United States is holding up for now, RBC Capital's Mike Tran said in a note. "Global mobility is becoming increasingly polarized across regions this week," he said.

 Libya's ramped-up oil output throws another wrench at oil prices and OPEC's plans - A truce in Libya has busted open a renewed source of oil supply, further threatening the commodity's faltering recovery from its historic drop earlier this year. Libya's main warring factions signed a purportedly permanent truce last week, a month after a blockade on the country's oil exports by one faction in the country's six-year-long civil war was lifted. This has boosted the prospects of continuing normality for the OPEC member's oil production but raises questions about oil prices, which are already facing oversupply and anemic demand due to rising coronavirus cases globally and uncertainty ahead of a potentially deadlier winter.   Oil prices are still firmly in correction territory, with international benchmarkBrent crude down 33% year to date and stuck between $40 and $43 per barrel for several weeks.Libya's National Oil Corporation on Friday lifted force majeur on exports from two key ports, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, announcing that output would increase from a current 500,000 barrels per day to 800,000 in two weeks' time, and to 1 million barrels per day a month from now — much higher than analysts' estimates.   The balance between oil supply and demand is 'very fragile': JTD Energy ServicesAnd domestically, it's needed — the country's petroleum sector represents 95% of its export earnings and 60% of its GDP, according to OPEC. "The stabilizing political backdrop and the consequent rise in oil output and exports is a welcome development for the North African nation after years of wars, social and political division, and suffering," Tamas Varga, a senior analyst at PVM Oil associates, said in an email note Monday.   But it presents a threat for the bigger picture concerning OPEC and its oil-producing allies, Varga added. He said the group of oil producers and its allies, also known as OPEC+, "must not be careless and have to address the issue of the extra barrels appearing in the market otherwise the days of relatively stable oil prices will be numbered."    Unbridled by OPEC output restrictions imposed in April due to its long-running conflict, Libya's exports and outlook for output growth already appear to be weighing on markets. Brent crude was trading at $40.65 per barrel on Monday morning in London, down 2.68%. "The immediate catalyst for lower prices appears to be market expectation that Libya's production is going to recover back to pre-civil war levels of more than 1m b/d (barrels per day) in the next few weeks,"  A relentless second wave of coronavirus cases across Europe and the U.S. has stopped oil demand recovery in its tracks, but the fresh prospect of increased supply is further raising the stakes for OPEC+, analysts at ANZ bank said.

Satellite Images Show Iran Rebuilding Natanz Nuclear Centrifuge Site After Sabotage - Iran has launched a major construction project at its controversial Natanz nuclear facility according to satellite imagery featured Wednesday in the Associated Press. Allegedly an underground advanced centrifuge assembly plant is being reconstituted after it was previously destroyed by fire. A mystery blast and fire on July 2nd had disabled operations at the facility, which later in the summer Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization declared was an act of sabotage and not due to an accident. It's widely believed that Israeli intelligence was behind the sabotage to disable advanced centrifuge operations there. Recall that before and after the fire which caused severe damage, setting back the development of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges, there was a series of 'mystery' explosions and fires at various military and industrial sites across Iran, raising suspicions of a major Israeli or even US-backed covert campaign to destabilize the country's defense and nuclear energy infrastructure. While the White House exit from the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) and recent 'maximum pressure' campaign was aimed at derailing what Washington claims are Iran's nuclear ambitions, it appears to have done the opposite and strengthened Tehran's resolve, also while under crippling sanctions. As the AP underscores, the timing of the construction efforts couldn't be worse for the Trump White House: "The construction comes as the U.S. nears Election Day in a campaign pitting President Donald Trump, whose maximum pressure campaign against Iran has led Tehran to abandon all limits on its atomic program, and Joe Biden, who has expressed a willingness to return to the accord."

House To Consider Authorizing 'Mother Of All Bombs' Sale To Israel - Israeli media is reporting that defense officials plan to soon obtain the "mother of all bombs" or a MOAB from the United States. The GBU-43/B Massive Ordinance Air Blast bomb (MOAB) is the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal, which over recent years has seen occasional use in Afghanistan against ISIS, Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists. It's especially brought in as a bunker-buster when smaller conventional munitions can't dislodge enemy combatants. Sales of the MOAB to Israel is expected to be put before the House on Friday in a bipartisan bill - part of the newly enacted policy of the US assisting Israeli in its "military edge" over Arab countries in the region. If passed it would pave the way for Israel eventually being able to obtain the massive weapon.Last week Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz met at the Pentagon and signed a joint declaration affirming Washington’s commitment to ensure Israel’s 'Qualitative Military Edge'. This after Israeli officials expressed concern that the latest US-brokered peace deals between Tel Aviv and Arab countries - so far including UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan - would open up their countries further to obtaining high-tech American military hardware. Friday's expected legislation is being spearheaded by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Rep. Brian Mast (D-FL), with Gottheimer putting out a statement saying the bill will "help shore-up Israel’s QME in the region and secure both of our countries from the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran."

 Neo-Ottoman Nights Of Armenian-Azerbaijani War - Turkish Sultan-in-Chief Recep Tayyip Erdogan has come up with a justification for the deployment of Syrian militants to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone to support the war against Armenia. According to him, at least 2,000 fighters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are supporting Armenian forces there.During the meeting with the ruling Justice and Development Party parliamentary group, Erdogan claimed that during the phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin he allegedly told him that Turkish authorities “have identified, through intelligence sources, that there are some 2,000 PKK terrorists fighting for Armenia at the moment for $600. Mr. President said he was not aware of that.” “I have told Putin that if our red lines are crossed, we would not hesitate to take action,” he added. Apparently, these non-existent PKK and YPG members in Karabakh are to justify direct Turkish involvement in the conflict on the side of Azerbaijan and somehow neutralize the mounting evidence showing Turkish-backed al-Qaeda-linked militants moving to Karabakh. Meanwhile, the Armenian side revealed radar data confirming the involvement of the Turkish Air Force in the Armenian-Azerbaijani war. The released tracks show that Turkish warplanes deployed in Azerbaijan provide air cover for Bayraktar TB2 drones striking Armenian positions, while the Turkish aerial command post circulating in Turkish airspace, near the conflict zone, coordinates the entire aerial operation. The entire operation, according to Armenia, was planned and carried out with the deep involvement of Turkish military specialists. Under the pressure of evidence, the Azerbaijani side has already admitted the presence of Turkish specialists and military equipment on its territory. The last step towards reality would be to confirm that they are involved in combat. On October 28 and 29, forces of the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc were conducting intensive strikes on Shushi and Stepanakert, the largest towns in Nagorno-Karabakh. Several airstrikes even hit the maternity section of the hospital in Stepanakert. Some sources even speculated that these strikes were delivered by F-16 warplanes. On the other hand, the Armenian side demonstrated that it is not much better and shelled the Azerbaijani town of Barda killing at least 21 people and wounding 70 others. The Turkish-Azerbaijani shelling of settlements and towns in Nagorno-Karabakh is a logical result of its attempt to remove Armenians from the region. Therefore, their strikes are aimed not only at military targets, but also at civilian ones in order to displace the local population. Meanwhile, the Armenian retaliation in a similar manner rarely has real military goals, rather it helps Ankara and Baku to gain some ‘evidence’ to confirm its propaganda narrative about ‘Armenian terrorism’.

Russian Blitz In Syria Warns Turkey To Back Off In Caucasus In an unprecedented show of strength, Russian warplanes this week reportedly launched devastating attacks on a Turkish-backed militant stronghold in northern Syria, killing up to 100 fighters. It was a stunning blow to Ankara’s proxy military assets in the Arab country. The airstrikes marked the end of a seven-month ceasefire which Russia had negotiated with Turkey to maintain a de-escalation zone in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province. The Russian-brokered truce was seen as a brake on an offensive by the Syrian army to rout retreating militants in the border region with Turkey whom Ankara has sponsored during the nearly decade-long war in Syria.In the attacks this week, it was reportedly a joint operation between Syrian armed forces and their Russian ally. That suggests that Moscow is giving Damascus a green light to resume its offensive to reclaim all its territory from Turkish-backed rebels. The gloves are coming off again, it seems.The target was reportedly the main training camp of Islamist group Faylaq al Sham, which is also known as the Sham Legion. The Western media refer to the group as “moderate rebels” but it is in league with known terror affiliates, such as Ahrar al Sham and Jaysh al Islam. It is also associated with the Jihadist propaganda outfit, the so-called White Helmets.The Sham Legion is reportedly Turkey’s go-to Islamist group in Idlib through which it networks with other militants. It is therefore a lynchpin in Turkey’s illicit covert operations in Syria.For Russia and Syria to launch such a pulverizing blitz against an important Turkish asset can only be seen as an emphatic warning to Ankara.A warning over what? It doesn’t seem to have been triggered by anything happening in Syria of late. Rather, the shock-and-awe attack seems to have been Moscow’s way of telling Ankara to stop pushing aggression in the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Russia’s South Caucasus region.The eruption of the Azeri-Armenian war on September 27 over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory has been an alarming security concern for Russia. Hundreds if not thousands have been killed in the past four weeks in what is the worst episode of violence since the two sides ended a six-year war in 1994 which saw a death toll of some 30,000.

France recalls ambassador to Turkey over Turkish criticisms of law on Islam - Yesterday, the French Foreign Ministry announced that French Ambassador to Turkey Hervé Magro will be recalled to Paris for consultations, over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s criticisms of French President Emmanuel Macron. This exchange between two NATO member states points to the tensions tearing apart the trans-Atlantic alliance. The recalling of an ambassador is the most serious diplomatic gesture taken between states short of a complete breakdown of diplomatic relations and war. It comes as French and Turkish forces wage proxy wars against each other in a broad arc of conflicts from Libya to the eastern Mediterranean, Syria, and the Armenian-Azeri war in the Caucasus. Erdoğan criticized Macron’s planned “anti-separatist law,” the far-right proposal of Prime Minister Jean Castex’s new government, which would set up state control over Islam in France and impose oaths of loyalty to the state on political and social organizations. The draconian law would trample upon France’s 1905 secularism law, which forbids state interference in religious life. Amid an explosive resurgence of COVID-19 in France, officials are stirring up anti-Muslim and anti-Semitic hatred, denouncing halal and kosher foods in supermarkets. Amid public debate over this reactionary legislation, a young Chechen Islamist brutally murdered a schoolteacher, Samuel Paty, in Conflans-Sainte-Honorine for showing obscene caricatures of the prophet Mohamed to a class to discuss freedom of expression. As calls for boycotts of French goods spread from Kuwait, Qatar, and across the Muslim world, Erdoğan publicly criticized Macron. “What is the problem this individual called Macron has with Islam and with the Muslims?” Erdoğan asked during a speech in the central Turkish city of Kayseri on Saturday. “Macron needs mental treatment. … What else can be said to a head of state who does not understand freedom of belief and who behaves in this way to millions of people living in his country who are members of a different faith?” Erdoğan also implied that Macron, who is bitterly unpopular for his anti-worker social policies and his “herd immunity” policies in the COVID-19 pandemic, would lose the 2022 elections. He said, “You are constantly picking on Erdoğan. This will not earn you anything. There will be. … We will see your fate.” Speaking of Macron, Erdoğan added, “I don’t think he has a long way to go. Why? He has not achieved anything for France, and he should do for himself.” 

Foreign Investment Plummets During Pandemic, Except in China – WSJ - Foreign direct investment in China largely held steady during the first half of this year, even as investment inflows into the U.S. and European Union plummeted, in a fresh sign that the world’s second-largest economy has suffered less damage from the pandemic. Globally, the monthly average for new investments for the first half of the year was down almost half on the monthly average for the whole of 2019, the largest decline on record, the United Nations’s Conference on Trade and Development said Tuesday. But while foreign investment in the U.S. and European Union fell by 61% and 29% respectively, inflows to China were down by just 4%. China attracted foreign investment totaling $76 billion during the period, while the U.S. attracted $51 billion. The U.S. has long been the top global destination for businesses investing overseas, while China has long ranked second. Unctad said the modest nature of the decline in foreign investment to China was surprising. Back in March, when China was the epicenter of the pandemic with significant parts of its economy in lockdown, Unctad forecast that it would be the big loser, and expected global flows of investment to fall by 15% across 2020. However, China’s economy reopened in April just as the U.S. and Europe were in lockdown, and the country has since contained the virus with only localized and short-lived restrictions. By contrast, the U.S. and Europe have seen resurgences in infections that have slowed their recoveries. In the three months through September, China’s economy had already exceeded the levels of output recorded in the last quarter of 2019, according to data out last week. The resilience of foreign investment in China appears to confound earlier expectations that businesses would seek to reduce their reliance on the country as a key part of their supply chains. But James Zhan, Unctad’s director of investment and enterprise, said it was too early to reach that conclusion. “One of the main reasons for reconfiguration of global supply chains is to increase resilience, which requires backup plans and redundant capacities,” he said. “A more practical approach companies can take would be building additional production bases outside of China, which means new investment to other countries instead of divestment from China or moving production out of China.” Across all developed economies, inflows of foreign investment were down 75% in the first half from the 2019 monthly average to total just $98 billion, a level last seen in 1994. In some cases—such as the Netherlands and the U.K.—that decline took the form of a reduction in loans from the parent company to its overseas subsidiaries, which are counted as foreign investment.

US Commander Provokes China: Troops Can Be Sent To Defend Japan's Senkaku Islands --Two weeks ago we detailed the latest flare-up in maritime tensions between Japan and China after Chinese ships intruded into the Japanese-claimed Senkaku Islands area in disputed East China Sea waters, staying for a record amount of time according to Japan's Defense Minister, who previously called the situation "intolerable".The stakes have now been raised as of early this week given the head of US forces in Japan has said the Pentagon could send American troops to defend the Senkaku Islands from future Chinese aggression.  Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) Escort Flotilla 1, Escort Flotilla 4, and the Royal Canadian Navy, in formation during Keen Sword 21."Our arrival today was simply to demonstrate the ability to move a few people but the same capability could be used to deploy combat troops to defend the Senkaku Islands or respond to other crisis and contingencies," Lt. Gen. Kevin Schneider said on Monday.He further went through a list of "malign activities" by Beijing in the region during his briefing from the deck of a Japanese destroyer.The occasion was the commencement of Keen Sword 21, a major ten day joint annual exercises between the US and Japanese navies. It involves almost ten thousand US troops and some 37,000 Japanese troops along with 170 aircraft and 20 ships, according to international reports.Here's how Japanese media presented US commander Schneider's provocative remarks:Schneider said the countries' ability to transport personnel "can and could be used to deliver combat troops to defend the Senkakus." Officials from Japan's Defense Ministry view his remarks as a warning to China, which has been stepping up its activities in waters near the Senkaku Islands.

Pakistan's Exports Surging At The Fastest Rate in South Asia --With several major brands moving production to Pakistan amid the COVID19 pandemic, the country's exports have grown at a faster pace than those of Bangladesh and India, according to Bloomberg News. Pakistan's total textile shipments rose 7% in September, compared with New Delhi’s 6% and Dhaka’s 3.5%.  “Pakistan has seen orders shifting from multiple nations including China, India and Bangladesh,” said Shahid Sattar, secretary general at the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, in an interview with Bloomberg's Faseeh Mangi. “Garment manufacturers are operating near maximum capacity and many can’t take any orders for the next six months.” Bloomberg attributed Pakistan's export surge to Prime Minister Imran Khan’s administration  to be the first in South Asia  to ease the COVID19 lockdown after controlling the spread of the disease. It helped draw companies like Guess Inc., Hugo Boss AG, Target Corp. and Hanesbrands Inc.  Pakistan's benchmark stock index KSE-100 has soared 52% since March, beating runners-up Vietnam and India, and gaining twice as much as China, according to Bloomberg News. In spite of the rapid rise, the valuation of the KSE-100 listed companies is among the world's lowest with forward price-earnings multiple of just 7.4 times. Pakistan is heading for an IPO spree, with as many as 10 companies lining up to go public. With coronavirus spread contained, Pakistan economy is rebounding with V-shaped economic recovery.   Pakistanis have once again defied all foreign and domestic doomsayers, including media, activists and think tanks of all varieties. The nation's monthly Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) for July 2020 has returned to where it was a year ago in July 2019, according to data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.  Meanwhile, the number of daily new cases has declined from over 6,000 a day in June to around 500 a day now. There has also been dramatic reduction in hospital admissions and the need for intensive care. The LSMI output increased by 5.02% for July, 2020 compared to July, 2019 and 9.54% in June, 2020.  The recovery in manufacturing is quite broad, extending from cement production to fuel sales and growing demand for automobiles to home appliances, according to Bloomberg News.

How Different Flights Around the World Look During a Pandemic –WSJ video -- As airports and airlines around the world continue to operate in the midst of a global pandemic, not every flight and region has the same Covid-19 protocols. Three WSJ reporters flew to different regions around the world to look at how air travel has changed.

Apartment Prices Are Crashing In Major Cities Worldwide - Covid's effect on cities is starting to hit the price of rentals - and it's not just in the United States. Apartment prices in some of the richest cities in the world are starting to show the effects of an exodus out of crowded city areas in order to move to more spacious suburbs. A slowing ebb and flow of international students, combined with a younger generation growing disinterested in paying city-price premiums, are both helping the demand side of the rental equation dry up. Tim Lawless, Asia Pacific head of research for data provider CoreLogic Inc., told Bloomberg: “You’re daft if you aren’t negotiating lower rent right now. Supply is high and occupancy has fallen off a cliff.”' Renters across the country and renegotiating with their landlords. For example, Christine Chung just negotiated a 9% reduction in rent for the house she lives in in Sydney, Australia. In New York, Manhattan apartments are the "cheapest they've been since 2013". The number of listings in the city have tripled from a year ago and the city's median rent has fallen 11%. Studio rents have plunged even further, disproportionately. In San Francisco, the median monthly rent for a studio fell 31% in September from a year prior, to $2,285. This far outpaced the national average of a 0.5% drop. Rents have also plunged in Toronto, down 14.5% in Q3 compared to the year prior. Properties are staying on the market longer, as well. The average time for a property to stay on the market has risen to 26 days in August versus 14 days a year prior. Toronto also has a significant amount of new property supply hitting the market, as Airbnb operators move to longer term leases and new apartment projects are completed. Some sellers are "dumping units below market value" in anticipation of prices falling further, Bloomberg notes.  London is a city feeling the brunt of slowing international students and executives traveling. Rents in the city's priciest areas are down 8.1% year-to-date through September. 7 out of 10 respondents to a recent survey in London say they expect prices to continue to fall over the next three months. London West End appraiser Mark Wilson said: “Applicants are noticeably fewer. Rents are still a one-way bet in our view, and it’s south.” Singapore has also seen a drop in rental volumes as a result of a drop in expats in Asia. Rental volumes of private units were down 8% from a year prior and rents are 17% below their 2013 peak. Despite the country being in the midst of a recession, home sales (indicating a desire to move out of the city) are at the highest level in more than 2 years. As mentioned above, Sydney is experiencing record high vacancy rates, which spiked to 16% in May. These rates have stabilized to about 13% now, as compared to the 5% pre-pandemic. Sydney also suffers from a lack of international student travel.

A Global Rebound Could Be Determined by How Freely Households Spend – WSJ —Households around the world responded to the coronavirus pandemic and its related effects by sharply boosting their savings. What they do with that cash could help shape the global economic recovery. Saving rates in many countries soared last spring as governments pumped stimulus money into people’s pockets and consumers trimmed their spending because of business closures, infection fears or lower expenses while working from home. That left many consumers—particularly the middle-income and affluent—with less debt and more cash to burn as restrictions on activities are eased. If they open their wallets readily, that could unleash a wave of pent-up demand that spurs strong growth in the short term. But if they hold back, they would restrain the economic recovery initially but have fuel for more spending in the longer term. Data from some countries suggest the rapid rebound is partly happening: In the U.S., the personal saving rate—seasonally adjusted and annualized—rose to a record 33.6% in April when restrictions peaked, but fell to 14.1% in August. That is still well above the 8.3% rate in February, before the pandemic hit, suggesting that while households were spending more by late summer than in the spring, they hadn’t fully resumed their old habits. A look at some other saving rates around the world illustrates the challenge policy makers face in prodding consumers to loosen their purse strings. Japan’s government earlier this year handed out the equivalent of $950 to every resident. In an NLI Research Institute survey, half said they would put it aside for everyday household expenses—which could include saving—and a quarter said outright they would save it, according to a July report from the institute’s Naoko Kuga. “The fact is that it has been difficult to actually spend a lot of money,”. “Confidence is also fragile, and nobody knows how long it will be before we get a vaccine and learn to live with the virus, so saving a good amount of the income flow makes a lot of sense.” Household savings as a proportion of income in Australia jumped to 19.8% in the second quarter versus 3.6% in the final three months of last year, while in Canada the saving rate climbed to 28.2% in the second quarter, compared with 3.6% at the end of December. “Policy makers can try and encourage spending, but you can’t force spending,”

Melbourne Parties As 112-Day COVID-19 Lockdown Comes To An End -After 112 days and countless arrests, fines and protests, Australia's second-most-populous state is finally free from lockdown.The city of Melbourne, the capital and largest metro center of Australia's coronavirus-hammered Victoria state, exited lockdown on Wednesday, leaving businesses and residents to cope with the aftermath of months of forced closures for an virus that has so far killed fewer than 1,000 people in the entire country. One resident told the SCMP about going to "an end of lockdown party" at a popular bar in the city to ring in the end of lockdown. She said the vibe at the event was "electric" and everybody was "giddy" about the restrictions finally coming to an end.What began as a six-week stretch in lockdown ultimately left Melbourne's 5 million residents shut up inside for months, depriving them of the cultural attractions like bars, cafes and live music.Victoria premier Daniel Andrews said more than 16,000 shops, 5,800 cafes and 1,000 beauty salons reopened on Wednesday, though he acknowledged that the restrictions had taken their toll on the city and its economy.The lockdown comes to an end more than 2 months after Melbourne's 'peak' of more than 700 new daily cases in a day. Some restrictions remain in place: Gyms in the city won't be able to reopen until Nov. 8. Melbourne residents must also continue to comply with restrictions on movement that bar them from visiting towns outside the city, a measure that had led many to complain that Melbourne and Victoria had been "cut off" from the rest of Australia.

Watch- Furious Welshman Tears Down Sheeting Off Non-Essential Goods In COVID-Lockdown Protest - A video out of Wales shows a furious shopper in a branch of Tesco tearing away plastic sheeting used to cover “non-essential” goods while decrying a COVID lockdown that is robbing people of “basic human needs.” As we highlighted yesterday, photos began emerging of bedding and other supermarket items deemed “non-essential” being covered with plastic sheeting to prevent people in Wales from buying them.Now a new video has emerged of an irate Welshman tearing down similar sheeting in a branch of Tesco in Bangor last night.“Since when have clothes been exempt?, rip the f***ers off… kids’ f***ing clothes, it is a disgrace,” said 28-year-old Gwilym Owen as he tore away the sheeting.“All you need to do is don’t comply and take them off,” he added as he continued to remove the protective covering. After a member of security approached Owen, he responded, “‘Since when has clothing not been essential?”  At the end of the clip, other members of staff appear to try to take the cameraman’s phone away from him while he is recording. Owen subsequently explained his actions on Facebook, noting that he didn’t care about the backlash because he had “had enough” of the restrictions. ‘I heard supermarkets have put covers over ‘non essential’ things such as clothes. We’re heading into winter now and who would have thought clothes for children weren’t essential?’‘I’m sure there are people out there who can barely afford heating in their houses and now they want to stop people buying clothes in supermarkets.‘I don’t expect everyone to do what I’ve done here but I do expect everyone to know that denying the public clothing is nothing but immoral and inhuman.

Macron deploys 7K soldiers to protect against attacks - French President Emmanuel Macron announced Thursday that he would be sending 7,000 troops to protect schools and religious sites after a knife attack inside a Nice church left three people dead. According to The Associated Press, the French government has raised its security alert status to the highest threat level, with the president saying he would double the 3,000 troops currently deployed to protect schools and places of worship. Authorities said Thursday that an armed attacker was wounded and taken into custody after a confrontation with police outside Nice's Notre Dame Church, less than a mile from the location of a 2016 truck attack that killed dozens. “He cried ‘Allah Akbar!’ over and over, even after he was injured,” Nice Mayor Christian Estrosi said, referring to the attacker. “The meaning of his gesture left no doubt.” Police said one elderly victim was "nearly beheaded," according to the BBC. Two people were attacked inside the church, and the third person was mortally wounded just outside the building. Police have the area locked down as an investigation continues. Thursday’s attack is the third in France in the past two months that authorities have tied to Islamic extremists, including the Oct. 16 beheading of a French middle school teacher who showed his class caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad for a lesson on free speech. The caricatures were published by satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and cited by the men who gunned down the newspaper’s editorial meeting in 2015, leaving 12 dead. In September, an asylum-seeker in France attacked people with a butcher knife outside Charlie Hebdo’s former offices. Macron called the school teacher a "quiet hero" for standing against Islamist separatism and supporting free speech, and he has repeatedly defended Charlie Hebdo in the past over its cartoons. His defense of the teacher has been met with vocal opposition from Muslims in multiple countries.

Mother-of-two, 29, is threatened with prison and a £2,500 fine for refusing to send her children to school over fears she'll 'die from coronavirus'- A clinically vulnerable mother has been threatened with a three-month prison sentence and a £2,500 fine because she refused to send her children back to school amid coronavirus. Katy Simpson, 29, chose to keep her son Damien and daughter Alisha, both six, at their home in Redcar when schools returned last month. She told teachers at Galileo Academy Trust in North Yorkshire: 'If I get that virus I will die'. Ms Simpson has Type 1 diabetes, asthma and an under-active thyroid - which classes her as clinically vulnerable under NHS guidelines. She has barely left the house since lockdown was first introduced in March, and only to shop for food once a week. But unemployed Ms Simpson said she has no plans to return her son and daughter to school - despite the written warning. Ms Simpson said: 'There's no two ways about it, if I get that virus I will die. 'I'm a single mum and don't have my family around to help out with the kids. I can't take that risk. When there's cold or a flu about I always get it and I'm knocked for six. 'The virus has killed thousands of people and we're all getting locked down again and it looks like it's going to get worse.' She said staff at her children's school were not listening to her, adding that she was asked to go to meetings to explain why her children had not been sent in. But unemployed Ms Simpson said she has no plans to return her son and daughter to school - despite the written warning. Ms Simpson said: 'There's no two ways about it, if I get that virus I will die. 'I'm a single mum and don't have my family around to help out with the kids. I can't take that risk. When there's cold or a flu about I always get it and I'm knocked for six. 'The virus has killed thousands of people and we're all getting locked down again and it looks like it's going to get worse.' She said staff at her children's school were not listening to her, adding that she was asked to go to meetings to explain why her children had not been sent in.

Home Office 'urgently investigating' asylum-seeker pupil who joined school as 15-year-old but ‘is balding and looks 40’ -- THE Home Office is urgently investigating an asylum-seeker pupil who joined the school as a 15-year-old but "is balding and looks 40". It comes after worried parents reported their kids came home from school saying he looked far too old to be in Year 11.  The Sun Coventry City Council was forced to send a letter to parents after the pupil took his place in classes earlier this month.The letter sparked fear among parents that the male did not possess a birth certificate or passport for officials to prove his age before enrolling.  The Sun understands the Home Office is now looking into the situation "urgently".The guidelines in place for the age assessment process seek to balance ensuring children are given the right support, while stopping adults passing themselves off as kids.If there isn't any evidence to prove an age, Home Office staff will treat someone as an adult if their appearance and demeanour suggest they are over 25 and two officers independently come to the same conclusion.Anyone undergoing the verification process will be treated as a child until a decision is made.   A spokesperson said: "Our asylum system is broken and in drastic need of reform."We will seek to stop abuse of the system while ensuring it is compassionate towards those who need our help, welcoming people through safe and legal routes.”