Fed says it could begin 'gradual tapering process' by mid-November --Federal Reserve officials could begin reducing the extraordinary help they've been providing to the economy by as soon as mid-November, according to minutes from the central bank's September meeting released Wednesday. The meeting summary indicated members feel the Fed has come close to reaching its economic goals and soon could begin normalizing policy by reducing the pace of its monthly asset purchases. In a process known as tapering, the Fed would reduce the $120 billion a month in bond buys slowly. The minutes indicated the central bank probably would start by cutting $10 billion a month in Treasurys and $5 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities. The Fed is currently buying at least $80 billion in Treasurys and $40 billion in MBS. The target date to end the purchases should there be no disruptions would be mid-2022. The minutes noted "participants generally assessed that, provided that the economic recovery remained broadly on track, a gradual tapering process that concluded around the middle of next year would likely be appropriate." "Participants noted that if a decision to begin tapering purchases occurred at the next meeting, the process of tapering could commence with the monthly purchase calendars beginning in either mid-November or mid-December," the summary said. The Fed next meets Nov. 2-3. Starting the tapering process in November is on the aggressive side of market expectations. The minutes said members' estimates "were consistent with a gradual tapering of net purchases being completed in July of next year." "If they announce [tapering] in November, I don't see why they would wait. Just go ahead and get going," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. Jones said she was a bit surprised by a notation in the minutes that "several" members "preferred to proceed with a more rapid" tapering pace. "That would be pretty aggressive," she said. "There must be some outspoken people who are pretty concerned that they need to move even faster." St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is one such member, telling CNBC on Tuesday that he thinks tapering should be more aggressive in case the Fed needs to rate interest rates next year to combat persistent inflation. At the September policymaking session, the committee voted unanimously to hold the central bank's benchmark short-term borrowing rate at zero to 0.25%. The committee also released the summary of its economic expectations, including projections for GDP growth, inflation and unemployment. Members scaled back their GDP estimates for this year but upped their outlook for inflation, and indicated they expect unemployment to be lower than earlier estimates. In the "dot plot" of individual members' expectations for interest rates, the committee indicated it could begin raising interest rates as soon as 2022. Markets currently are pricing in the first rate hike for next September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Following the release of the minutes, traders increased the likelihood of a September hike to 65% from 62%. Officials, though, stressed that a tapering decision should not be seen as implying pending interest rate hikes. However, some members at the meeting showed concern that current inflation pressures might last longer than they had anticipated. Traders are pricing in a 46% chance of two rate hikes in 2022. "Most participants saw inflation risks as weighted to the upside.
FOMC Minutes: "the process of tapering could commence ... in either mid-November or mid-December" -- From the Fed: FOMC Minutes, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 21–22, 2021. Excerpt on asset purchases: A number of participants assessed that the standard of substantial further progress toward the goal of maximum employment had not yet been attained but that, if the economy proceeded roughly as they anticipated, it may soon be reached; a number of other participants indicated that they believed that the test of "substantial further progress" toward maximum employment had been met. Some of these participants also suggested that labor supply constraints were the main impediments to further improvement in labor market conditions rather than lack of demand. They noted that adding monetary policy accommodation at this time would not address such constraints or that the costs of continuing asset purchases might be beginning to exceed their benefits. All participants agreed that it would be appropriate for the current meeting's postmeeting statement to relay the Committee's judgment that, if progress continued broadly as expected, a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted. Participants also expressed their views on how slowing in the pace of purchases might proceed. In particular, participants commented on an illustrative path, developed by the staff and reflecting participants' discussions at the Committee's July meeting, that gave the speed and composition associated with a tapering of asset purchases. The path featured monthly reductions in the pace of asset purchases, by $10 billion in the case of Treasury securities and $5 billion in the case of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Participants generally commented that the illustrative path provided a straightforward and appropriate template that policymakers might follow, and a couple of participants observed that giving advance notice to the general public of a plan along these lines may reduce the risk of an adverse market reaction to a moderation in asset purchases. Several participants indicated that they preferred to proceed with a more rapid moderation of purchases than described in the illustrative examples. No decision to proceed with a moderation of asset purchases was made at the meeting, but participants generally assessed that, provided that the economic recovery remained broadly on track, a gradual tapering process that concluded around the middle of next year would likely be appropriate. Participants noted that if a decision to begin tapering purchases occurred at the next meeting, the process of tapering could commence with the monthly purchase calendars beginning in either mid-November or mid-December.
Fed Worried About Inflation Risk as It Firmed Up Tapering Plan – WSJ -- Federal Reserve officials last month worried that disrupted supply chains were raising the risks of more persistent inflation as they firmed up plans to reduce their bond-buying stimulus program next month and conclude it by the middle of next year.Minutes of their Sept. 21-22 Fed meeting, released Wednesday, revealed a stronger consensus over scaling back the $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities amid signs that higher inflation and strong demand could call for tighter monetary policy next year. The bond purchases have been a key piece of the Fed’s effort to stimulate growth since the coronavirus pandemic disrupted the U.S. economy last year.Under plans discussed last month, the Fed would reduce its purchases by $15 billion a month, divided proportionally between Treasury and mortgage bonds. Officials discussed starting the taper in mid-November; if they follow the schedule penciled out last month, purchases would conclude by June.That schedule for phasing out the Fed’s stimulus program is somewhat faster than investors had anticipated just a few months ago. It partly reflects how this year’s surge in inflation is lasting longer than central bank officials and private-sector economists anticipated.Officials don’t want to be in a position where they feel compelled to raise rates at a time when they are still fueling monetary stimulus by purchasing assets. The minutes said that several participants at last month’s meeting preferred to reduce the purchases even faster. Those officials have been eager to conclude their asset buying to get flexibility to raise rates next year, if needed, because they think inflation may continue to run above the Fed’s 2% target.The Fed cut its short-term benchmark rate to near zero when the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S. economy in March 2020.Officials debated last month when the Fed might need to lift rates from near zero. The minutes said an unspecified number of officials raised the possibility of beginning to raise rates by the end of next year because they expected the labor market and inflation to meet goals laid out by the Fed one year ago. Some of these officials thought inflation would remain elevated through next year. Another group was more optimistic that inflation would come down to the Fed’s 2% target on its own. These officials thought the economy was likely to warrant rates remaining at or near their current setting over the next two years. Raising rates too soon and too quickly, these officials said, could undermine the Fed’s recent commitments to keep inflation from drifting below its 2% goal.New projections released at the end of last month’s meeting showed half of the 18 officials that participated expected the economy to require an interest-rate increase by the end of 2022.
Bullard Sees Schrodinger's Inflation: "50% Probability It's Transitory, 50% It's Persistent" - Two days after the dam finally broke and Atlanta Fed president Bostic became the first to admit that inflation is not - contrary to what the bloviating career economists with employer-paid for debit cards say - transitory (not that "transitory" is now a dirty word as inflation isn't going away), today another Fed president "suddenly" had an "epiphany" - and pointed out what has been blindingly obvious to most normal humans.St. Louis President James Bullard said this year’s surge in inflation, which all central bankers had until recently said as temporary, may well persist amid a strong U.S. economy and tight labor market.“While I do think there is some probability that this will naturally dissipate over the next six months, I wouldn’t say that’s such a strong case that we can count on it,” Bullard said Thursday during a virtual discussion hosted by the Euro 50 Group.“I would put 50% probability on the dissipation story and 50% probability on the persistent story."Schrodinger would be so proud.Pointing to the latest core PCE print which came in at fresh 30 year highs, Bullard said that "this is concerning,” adding some gauges of inflation expectations have gone up sharply.And to think it only took these "smartest theoretical central planners in the room" one year to figure this out.And since collapsing the wave function of inflation could have catastrophic results if the price surge continues even as the Fed keeps injecting some ungodly sum of cash into the market, Bullard said he favored the Federal Open Market Committee beginning to scale back its market pandemic support next month by tapering asset purchases and completing the process by the end of the first quarter, faster than many of his colleagues prefer.In yesterday's FOMC minutes, we found that Fed officials largely unanimously agreed they should start reducing emergency pandemic support for the economy in mid-November or mid-December amid increasing concern over inflation. Bullard, however, wants a more rapid pace that is completed by the end of the first quarter to give policy makers the flexibility to raise rates sooner if needed to keep inflation in check. Of course, what he wants, is irrelevant as he does not vote on monetary policy this year.
The return of the bond market vigilantes - Desmond Lachman-- With growing signs that rising inflation is anything but transitory, as the Federal Reserve keeps assuring us, there are ominous signs that the bond market vigilantes might once again be saddling up. Indeed, over the last couple of months, 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields have risensharply to 1.6 percent, or to more than double their level last year. The continuation of the bond market sell-off could pose a serious challenge to the U.S. economic recovery by triggering the bursting of today’s “everything” asset price and credit market bubble. The latest run-up in long-term bond yields suggest that the markets are not nearly as sanguine as is the Fed about the inflation outlook. Whereas the Fed believes that inflation will soon return to its 2 percent inflation target and that there will be no need to raise interest rates until 2023 to keep inflation in check, the markets seem to be fretting that the Fed could soon fall behind the inflation curve.In seeming to be concerned about the inflation outlook, the markets seem to have in mind the many troubling tell-tale signs of future inflation. It is not only that world food prices have increased by over 30 percent. Or that ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter natural gas prices are skyrocketing and international oil prices have more than doubled over the past year to around $80 a barrel. It is also that a policy-induced rapid increase in domestic aggregate demand is running into global supply chain problems and domestic labor shortages that could last longer than U.S. economic policymakers expect. As if to underline this point, Asian producers are warning that the computer chip production problems plaguing the world automobile industry could last well into 2022 and perhaps 2023, while the world shipping industry is not expecting an early resolution of its problems that are clogging world ports and driving up world shipping costs at a disturbing rate.Meanwhile, average hourly earnings in the U.S. are rising at more than a 4.5 percent clip. They are doing so as job openings have now risen to a record 10.5 million job openings, which far exceeds the 7.7 million unemployed workers to which the Fed keeps referring. Should the bond market vigilantes sense that the Fed is going to remain slow in reacting to rising inflationary pressures, they must be expected to continue selling longer-dated U.S. Treasuries and driving up long-term interest rates. That in turn could trigger the bursting of the equity, housing and credit market bubbles both at home and abroad. This would seem to be especially the case considering that those bubbles have been premised on the assumption that long-term interest rates would stay at their currently low levels forever.All of this would imply that the Fed can ill afford to allow itself to fall behind the inflation curve. The more that the Fed is perceived to be unduly passive about inflation, the higher the bond vigilantes are likely to drive up long-term interest rates on the expectation of higher future inflation. And the higher that long-term interest rates rise, the greater is the chance that the “everything” bubble bursts, which could cause real stress in both the U.S. and world financial systems. This is particularly true given that today’s global “everything” asset price and credit market bubble is much more pervasive than was the 2006 U.S. housing and credit market bubble.
Quietly, the Fed Releases the Names of Banks that Got Billions in Emergency Repo Loans in 2019 -- By Pam Martens -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has quietly posted the names of the banks that grabbed billions of dollars under the Fed’s emergency repo loan operations that commenced on September 17, 2019 – months before there was a COVID-19 crisis anywhere in the world. The emergency repo loans were made via Open Market operations at the New York Fed. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010, the names of the banks, dollar amounts borrowed, interest rate and collateral posted must be made public “on the last day of the eighth calendar quarter following the calendar quarter in which the covered transaction was conducted.” Since the emergency repo loans were initiated in the third quarter of 2019, that meant eight quarters had passed and the public was entitled to the information for at least the month of September 2019. (The Fed has the power to release the information earlier if it chooses.) We asked the Fed yesterday for the data and were stunned to learn that it had already been quietly posted on the New York Fed’s website with no media outlet being any the wiser.The names of the banks and the eyebrow-raising amounts they borrowed from the New York Fed do not square with the official story at the time – that the liquidity crisis occurred because U.S. corporations withdrew large amounts from the banks in order to make quarterly tax payments. The fact that so many huge loans ended up going to foreign banks, as well as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Securities, suggests that this was a derivatives counterparty problem, potentially triggered by Deutsche Bank’s crisis at the time.Deutsche Bank is a major derivatives counterparty to Wall Street mega banks. It was having serious problems throughout 2019. Its attempt to merge with Commerzbank fell through in April 2019. It announced a plan to fire 18,000 workers in July 2019 and had plans to create a good bank/bad bank, isolating off toxic assets that it planned to sell. Deutsche Bank had incurred losses in three of the prior four years. Its share price had lost 90 percent of its value over the prior dozen years and was trading close to an historic low in September 2019. The Monday after the emergency repo loan operations began, Deutsche Bank announced that it would be moving clients and staff from its prime broker unit (that makes loans to hedge funds) to BNP Paribas along with its electronic trading operations. On September 17, 2019, the first day of emergency repo loan operations, Deutsche Bank borrowed $1.5 billion in a one-day loan. By September 24, Deutsche Bank had upped its one-day repo loans to $7 billion. By September 25, Deutsche Bank increased its one-day borrowing to $9 billion. On September 27, Deutsche Bank took a $3 billion 14-day term loan and rolled over $6 billion in a 3-day loan. By March 14, 2020,we reported that the Fed had pumped more than $9 trillion cumulatively in repo loans to unnamed banks.The current data for the last 14 days of September 2019 shows that Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities International (part of a Japanese financial firm) borrowed huge sums under the Fed’s 14-day term repo loans. Goldman Sachs had $29.6 billion in 14-day term repo loans outstanding by September 27, then took an additional $5 billion one-day repo loan on September 30. Nomura, by September 27, had $30 billion outstanding in 14-day term loans.On September 27, JPMorgan Securities had a total of $20 billion in 14-day term repo loans outstanding. On September 30, JPMorgan Securities took an additional $8 billion one day repo loan.On the first day of the emergency repo loan operations on September 17, the New York Fed provided a total of $53.15 billion in one-day repo loans. JPMorgan Securities was the largest borrower at $7.6 billion or 14 percent of the total. JPMorgan Chase, the parent organization, owns the largest depository bank in the United States. At that point in time, JPMorgan Chase held $1.6 trillion in deposits. Why would it need to borrow $7.6 billion from the New York Fed on the very first day the emergency repo loan operations opened?In addition to the $7.6 billion borrowed by JPMorgan Securities on the first day of repo operations on September 17, UBS Securities, a unit of the Swiss multinational investment bank UBS, borrowed $5.5 billion or 10 percent of the total offered that day.It’s long past the time for the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee to get to the bottom of what the financial panic that started on September 17, 2019 was all about.
The Dallas Fed Board Is Now Complicit in the Robert Kaplan Saga - Pam Martens - Last Wednesday, the Editorial Board of the Financial Times of London penned an editorial under a headline that read: “The Fed’s Trading Scandal Undermines Public Trust.” The editorial noted that the President of the Dallas Fed, Robert Kaplan, “held stakes over $1m each in 27 investments, and moved in and out of S&P 500 futures. The precise dates of his transactions are unknown as his form declaring financial interests merely gives ‘multiple’ as the timeframe.”Last Friday, this headline appeared at the Wall Street Journal: “Boston, Dallas Fed Banks Pledge Cooperation With Stock-Trading Probe.” But then the article revealed this:“The Dallas Fed has declined multiple requests to fully disclose Mr. Kaplan’s extensive trading activity. For example, Mr. Kaplan’s disclosures list ‘multiple’ for trades in stocks and other investments without specifying the dates of the transactions.” The financial disclosure form that Kaplan and every other Federal Reserve Bank President is required to file clearly indicates that the filer is required to give the month, day and year of each purchase and each sale. The form even provides an example of how it wants the date shown, e.g., 2/1/93. As a former CPA with Peat Marwick Mitchell and 22-year veteran of the trading powerhouse Goldman Sachs, Kaplan certainly knew, or should have known, that he was evading the prescribed rules of the Federal Reserve system when he substituted the word “multiple” for the specific dates of his trades. Kaplan didn’t do this just on his financial disclosure form for 2020, he did this on every financial disclosure form that he filed annually from 2015 through 2020. (See Kaplan’s 2015 through 2020 financial disclosure forms here.)And in each of those years Kaplan was, astonishingly, trading in S&P 500 futures contracts, an instrument used by hedge funds to make highly leveraged bets on the direction of the market.Every other Fed Bank President and every member of the Fed Board of Governors’ financial disclosure forms for 2020 that we reviewed listed the specific dates of each purchase and each sale. But Kaplan did not for six running years.Since at least 2017, Sharon Sweeney has served in the dual role as General Counsel and Ethics Officer at the Dallas Fed. Sweeney’s name appears under Kaplan’s on his financial disclosure form. Sweeney has a law degree. She should have been able to readily see that the form required specific dates and that Kaplan was evading this requirement.Two of the most widely read financial newspapers in the world have now called attention to the Dallas Fed’s failure to turn over the dates of Kaplan’s trades. It is impossible to ascertain if Kaplan was trading on inside information, or trading on market-moving information he gave to the press himself, without those dates. (SeeDallas Fed President Kaplan Was Making Bold, Market-Moving Statements to Media During 2020 Crisis; the Same Year He Traded Tens of Millions of Dollars in Stocks and S&P 500 Futures.)
Goldman Sachs trims US economic growth forecast - Economists for Goldman Sachs have lowered their forecasts for U.S. growth this year and next, citing a delayed recovery in consumer spending. In a report Sunday, economists forecasted gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 5.6 percent this year, down from the 5.7 percent previously estimated, according to Bloomberg. The report also projected GDP growth of 4 percent in 2022, compared to the previous 4.3 percent estimate. “After updating our estimates of the key growth impulses that drive our consumption forecast-reopening, fiscal stimulus, pent-up savings, and wealth effects and incorporating a longer-lasting virus drag on virus-sensitive consumer services spending, we now expect a more delayed recovery in consumer spending,” the economists wrote in Sunday's report. The new estimates come just days after the Labor Department released data showing U.S. employers added 194,000 jobs last month, falling significantly short of economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate fell sharply, to 4.8 percent, but it was overshadowed by job growth that had slowed for a second consecutive month following a surge in coronavirus cases over the summer. The weak job growth is proving challenging for President Biden and congressional Democrats as they attempt to sell their economic agenda to voters with the midterm elections just a year away.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 10th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 23.0% from the same day in 2019 (77.0% of 2019). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 9, 2021. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. The 7-day average for the US is down 6% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 7th. Movie ticket sales were at $159 million last week, down about 13% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through October 2nd. The occupancy rate was down 9.2% compared to the same week in 2019. The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019. But it is uncertain what will happen over the next couple of months with business travel. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of October 1st, gasoline supplied was down 0.3% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been six weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - and consumption is running close to 2019 levels now.This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities."This data is through October 9th for the United States and several selected cities. All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 116% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but data on New York subway usage is down sharply (next graph). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are close to 15 million subway turnstile entries per week - and moving up recently. This data is through Friday, October 8th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
Mounting problems for US and global economy - It was all going to be so easy, as simple as the flick of a switch. According to the high priests of “capitalist wisdom” around the world, once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted and society learned to “live with the virus”—no matter what the cost in terms of lives of workers and the impact on their children—the economy was going to spring back. Some 20 months into the pandemic, with the virtual obliteration of public health measures in country after country, the real situation is very different. The global economy is beset with a series of interconnected problems, which are worsening at a rapid pace. These include: global supply chain constrictions, ranging from computer chips to clothing and toys; rising inflation resulting from supply chain choking and higher energy prices; labour shortages due to the reluctance of workers to risk their health and that of their families and the ever-present threat of financial market turmoil. The situation in the US transportation system can only be described as chaotic. Tens of thousands of containers are held up in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on the west coast with as many as 60 ships lining up to berth and sometimes having to wait for as long as six weeks. On the east coast the New York Times reported that in the port of Savannah, Georgia, some 80,000 containers are piled up waiting to be delivered, 50 percent more than usual. Savannah is the third largest container port in the country after the Los Angeles-Long Beach complex and New York-New Jersey. In the California complex, where there are 13 private container terminals, private ownership creates problems in developing a unified plan for resolving the port situation as well as more broadly. As the Wall Street Journal reported: “Participants in each link in the US chain—shipping lines, port workers, truckers, warehouse operators, railways and retailers” blame others for the imbalances. All of them are “struggling with a shortage of workers.” The supply chain problems are not confined to the US. The New York Times has reported that in Germany, where one-in-four jobs depends on exports, the crisis in global supply chains is “weighing heavily on the economy” and some economists have even predicted a “bottleneck recession.” According to a survey conducted by the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce conducted in August more than 40 percent of companies said they had lost sales because of supply problems. Germany highlights another problem arising from the supply chain crisis. In line with the dictates of the capitalist market, supply shortages have led to rising prices, with the annual inflation rate in Germany hitting 4.1 percent in August, the highest in nearly 30 years. This has raised the prospect of stagflation—a slowing economy combined with higher inflation. This prospect is also emerging in the United States as the latest employment data show that non-farm payroll rose by only a seasonally adjusted 194,000 in September, down from the already low increase of 235,000 in August and far below the figure of 500,000 predicted by economists. Here again, “capitalist wisdom” was confounded. It had been claimed that federal support for unemployed workers had been “holding back” job applications and the ending of that support, coupled with the opening of schools, would see a rush for jobs when it ended at the start of the month. The Washington Post reported last Friday on the situation in the restaurant industry, which had been cited as a kind of bellwether for the rest of the economy. According to official data, food services and drink establishments added only 29,000 jobs in September after losing 24,700 jobs in August. Between January and July this sector added a monthly average of 197,000 jobs.
Trump tears into McConnell over debt ceiling deal with Democrats - -Former President Donald Trump on Saturday eviscerated Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for compromising with Senate Democrats on a temporary debt ceiling deal, his latest broadside against the top Republican in Washington as Trump continues to hint at a 2024 presidential run.Trump made the remarks at a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, at which Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Sen. Chuck Grassley also took the stage. “To think we had 11 Republicans go along with an extension. Headed up by Mitch McConnell, can you believe that?" Trump said about the debt ceiling deal. "And you know what it does? It gives the Democrats more time, two months, gives them more time to figure it out. They can now have two more months to figure it out how to screw us, OK." McConnell proposed a debt ceiling deal that initiated negotiations with Democrats, with theSenate voting 50-48 last week to extend the debt limit through early December. Eleven Senate Republicans, including McConnell, broke ranks to vote with all Democrats to overcome a filibuster so the measure could move forward.McConnell has blasted Trump's baseless claims of widespread election fraud, for which there is no evidence in the 2020 presidential election.Trump has gone after McConnell at several points this year amid icy tensions.The former President called McConnell a "dour, sullen and unsmiling political hack" after the Kentucky senator slammed Trump over his behavior on the day of the insurrection at the US Capitol and after.
Pelosi says proposal to take debt ceiling authority away from Congress 'has merit' -- Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Tuesday she thinks a bill that would transfer the authority to raise the debt limit from Congress to the Treasury secretary "has merit." Pelosi's support for shifting the near-annual responsibility of ensuring the U.S. doesn't default on its debts comes as a growing number of Democrats in recent weeks have endorsed abolishing the debt limit in its current form. House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) and Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) introduced a bill late last month that would vest the responsibility of raising the debt limit with the Treasury secretary. "I think it has merit," Pelosi said of the proposal at a press conference in the Capitol. The House is scheduled to vote later Tuesday to clear a short-term extension of the debt limit into early December, less than a week before the Oct. 18 deadline in which the Treasury Department estimated the U.S. could start defaulting on its obligations. The calls for reforming the debt limit came in response to Republicans' insistence in recent weeks that they would not vote to raise the debt limit because they want Democrats to use the budget reconciliation process, which is exempt from a Senate filibuster but is more time-consuming and requires specifying a number to raise the debt limit to, rather than suspending it for a period of time. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) ultimately agreed to supply enough GOP votes to advance a short-term measure to raise the debt limit, arguing it would provide enough time for Democrats to use reconciliation in the coming weeks for a long-term measure and vowing that Republicans wouldn't vote for another extension. Pelosi said late last month that she thinks the Boyle-Yarmuth proposal is an "excellent idea." But for now, Pelosi and other Democratic leaders are focused on ensuring that legislation to prevent a debt default next week reaches President Biden's desk. "In the meantime, we're going to pass a bill today to take us to December," Pelosi said.
House votes to lift debt ceiling, likely delaying default showdown until December -House lawmakers approved a $480 billion hike to the debt ceiling on Tuesday, averting a potentially catastrophic U.S. default for at least another two months and teeing up another showdown over a long-term solution. The Democrat-controlled House passed the measure in a 219-206 vote along party lines. The vote brought the House in sync with the Senate, which passed its own bill last week raising the debt limit by $480 billion. President Biden is expected to sign the bill. The resolution will allow the federal government to cover its debt obligations through Dec. 3. Democratic lawmakers will use the temporary reprieve to identify a long-term solution to raise the debt limit without Republican support. The debt ceiling bill’s passage followed a lengthy standoff on Capitol Hill. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and business leaders had warned of a potential economic catastrophe if Congress did not approve a hike before the government runs out of money on Oct. 18. Republican lawmakers pledged not to help Democrats raise the debt ceiling, arguing a hike would only facilitate Biden administration spending programs that they deem to be fiscally irresponsible. Biden and Democratic leaders have rejected that argument, asserting the hike ensures the U.S. government can cover debts it has already incurred. The standalone debt ceiling bill advanced to the House after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., offered to drop Republican opposition if Democrats agreed to raise the borrowing cap by a fixed dollar amount to avoid a default. McConnell was one of 11 GOP senators who voted to invoke cloture, clearing the 60-vote filibuster threshold and allowing Senate Democrats to pass the hike in a simple majority vote. McConnell was adamant that Democrats will need to use the budget reconciliation process to achieve a longer-term debt ceiling hike during their deliberations on Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending bill. Democrats say using budget reconciliation would be too complicated and risky.
Biden signs debt limit hike, but December standoff looms -President Joe Biden on Thursday signed into law a bill raising the nation's debt limit until early December, delaying the prospect of an unprecedented federal default that would cause economic disaster. The House passed the $480 billion increase in the country’s borrowing ceiling on Tuesday after the Senate approved it on a party-line vote last week. The eventual approval came after a protracted standoff with Senate Republicans, who derailed initial Democratic efforts with filibusters, delays that require 60 votes to halt. Ultimately, a handful of Senate Republicans agreed to join Democrats and voted to end GOP delays and move to a final vote on the legislation, but Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said Republicans will offer no support for another increase in December. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had warned that the U.S. would hit its borrowing limit Monday, an unprecedented situation that she and others cautioned could lead to economic catastrophe for a nation still reeling from a global pandemic. Routine government payments to Social Security beneficiaries, disabled veterans, and active-duty military personnel would potentially be delayed, and the economic fallout in the U.S. could ripple through global markets. The passage of the short-term debt ceiling increase ensures that, for now, the U.S. will continue to meet its obligations. But it sets up another potential cliff at the end of the year — at a time when lawmakers will also be working to pass a federal funding bill to avert a government shutdown. Republicans have said Democrats should use a budgetary maneuver to pass an increase in the debt limit without Republican support, like the process Democrats are using for Biden's massive climate change and social safety net plan. But Democrats have resisted that option. The clash between the two parties leaves Congress without a clear solution to avert the next default deadline in December, but the White House has emphasized it is still pursuing a bipartisan increase.
Is Joe Biden right that debt limit increase ‘has nothing to do with new spending’? -As a breach of the nation’s debt ceiling loomed earlier this month, President Joe Biden urged quick action by lawmakers.The nation’s debt ceiling approximates the credit limit on a credit card: It’s a dollar figure that constrains how much debt the federal government can carry at a given time in order to pay for its operations. The nation was poised to hit its limit on federal debt in mid-October, imperiling all kinds of federal payments, especially interest on government bonds, which could have triggered a national and international financial crisis.On Oct. 6, Biden urged Republicans not to use procedural maneuvers to block an increase in the debt ceiling, arguing that too much would be at risk if the United States defaulted on its debts."Let’s be clear," Biden said. "Raising the debt limit is paying our old debts. It has nothing to do with new spending or what may be coming this year or other years. It has nothing to do with my plans on infrastructure or Building Back Better, both of which are paid for but they’re not even in — in the queue right now."Biden had a point about the most direct causes of the need to raise the debt ceiling; in fact, Republicans who said the immediate debt ceiling increase was needed because of new programs proposed by Biden were incorrect. However, Biden left out some important context.Here’s where Biden is on solid footing: His new spending initiatives are not to blame for the immediate need to raise the debt ceiling. Neither his "human infrastructure" bill, which focuses on things like childcare, student aid, prescription drug prices and Medicare, nor his more traditional infrastructure bill addressing transportation and energy were the proximate cause of the debt limit increase he sought. "The president is correct that we are having to raise the debt limit because of past spending and revenue decisions," said Steve Ellis, president of Taxpayers for Common Sense. "The reason it has to be raised are for past decisions that are ongoing."In fact, since the bipartisan infrastructure bill hadn’t yet been passed by the House — and since the text of the human infrastructure bill hadn’t even been nailed down yet by negotiators — there was no spending from either bill that would have required an urgent increase in the debt ceiling.While Biden’s future infrastructure bills were not related to the immediate call to raise the debt ceiling, they could have an effect should they become law. If they are enacted, they would shift from theoretical plans to actual spending. This, in turn, would increase the fiscal pressure on the U.S. and add to the need to increase the debt ceiling in the future.
Democrats May Limit Social Programs In Reconciliation Bill — Democrats are facing torturous choices of which social programs to slash or get rid of altogether, as they will have to cut $1 trillion or even $2 trillion out of their signature social spending bill.While the topline numbers have gotten a lot of attention, there’s been little public discussion about what cutting the Build Back Better Act in half actually looks like: abandoning programs and reforms badly wanted by progressives and centrists alike.Do you give up on a child tax credit that helped cut the child poverty level in half, or the country’s first universal paid family leave program? Do you drop prekindergarten subsidies or expanding Medicare to cover vision, hearing, and dental? What if you can afford investments in green energy or expanding the Affordable Care Act but not both?After winning the White House and Congress, Democrats kicked off an ambitious plan to holistically reform America’s social safety net and tackle climate change with massive investments in green energy. The total price tag, including tax credits, was set at $3.5 trillion over 10 years. Now, they’re looking at something around half that.Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are pushing their party to drastically shrink the size of their Build Back Better Act. It’s not clear what the final number will be but guesses range from $1.5 trillion — Manchin’s proposal — to President Joe Biden’s counteroffer of somewhere over $2 trillion. One of the top Democratic priorities is universal paid family and medical leave, allowing people to take paid time off due to illness, having a baby, or looking after a sick family member. Estimates peg this at about $550 billion. (All numbers are projected costs over 10 years, which is how Congress calculates the price.) Take that policy and add a few hundred billion to move the country toward green energy, plus around $800 billion to make permanent the universal child tax credit, enacted on a temporary basis earlier this year, that is giving parents up to $3,600 per year for each child. At that point, you’ve pretty much hit your budget cap.But this hypothetical bill doesn’t include things like expanding the Affordable Care Act to provide health insurance to over 2 million people, long-term care for older adults, universal prekindergarten for 3- and 4-year-olds, funding for schools, and many other prized progressive ideas. To add any of these, you have to either take something else out or shrink it way down. Democrats have two choices: They can either cut out major planks of the bill or they can winnow each program down, making them skimpier and temporary to fit into the budget. If you only extend the child tax credit for five years and bet that in 2026 the government of the day will extend it again, that brings down the price tag substantially. But if you bet wrong, the tax credit ends. No estimates of what a $2 trillion plan would look like have come out of Congress, because the party is still fighting over the size of the bill. Sen. Bernie Sanders recently called on Manchin and Sinema to stop hiding behind numbers and say exactly what policies they want cut out of the bill. “We’ve got 48 senators who support $3.5 trillion. We’ve got two who don’t,” said Sanders. “It is wrong, it is really not playing fair, that one or two people think they should be able to stop what 48 members of the Democratic caucus want, what the American people want, what the president of the United States wants.”
Democrats' red line for Manchin: No climate cuts - A group of Senate Democrats yesterday dug in their heels against potential cuts to climate programs in the reconciliation package, as a stare down continues with West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and other moderates.“There isn’t a middle ground between a livable and unlivable world. We cannot pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill without the reconciliation package,” Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) said during a news conference with environmental groups and Sens. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). “We cannot slash climate funding in this package.”Among the provisions that need protecting, Markey said, are the Civilian Climate Corps, a green bank, proposals to toss out fossil fuel tax breaks and a list of other climate policies. The rallying cry, in short, was "no climate, no deal."The event, hosted by Evergreen Action and the Sunrise Movement, offered a warning shot of sorts, as the White House and top congressional Democrats negotiate the details of a reconciliation package with Manchin, chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).The rally came just a day after Budget Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a progressive who caucuses with Democrats, blasted Manchin at length for his “vague” demands in talks on President Biden’s signature bill (E&E Daily, Oct. 7).Markey was also particularly critical of any suggestion that natural gas be included in the package. “Let me be clear: Natural gas is not clean energy, and it is not climate action,” Markey told reporters.Biden is currently negotiating down from the $3.5 trillion topline spelled out in the House reconciliation bill, which has sparked fears among progressives that entire programs could get pulled, or that cuts could be imposed across the board for policies to address climate change and a huge variety of social issues (E&E Daily, Oct. 6).Manchin, meanwhile, is insisting on $1.5 trillion in overall spending and has said the tax provisions should be more inclusive of coal, natural gas and carbon capture, and should not end tax breaks for fossil fuels. He also has taken issue with the Clean Electricity Performance Program, or CEPP, the bill’s signature decarbonization policy for the power sector.
Biden faces pressure to pass infrastructure bills before climate summit - President Biden is facing pressure to get major infrastructure legislation across the finish line ahead of a global climate summit this month. Congress is currently working through both a bipartisan infrastructure bill that includes investments in an electric vehicle charging network and public transit and a Democrat-only “social infrastructure bill” that would spend heavily on clean energy. Summit participants are keeping a particularly close eye on the Democratic measure, which has much greater potential to deliver the kind of emissions cuts Biden has promised.Countries are expected to negotiate the future of climate action at the COP26 climate meeting in Glasgow, Scotland, where the U.S. will be working to restore its climate leadership after four years of inaction under the Trump administration. Passing the sweeping Democratic spending bill would give the U.S. more credibility and leverage in negotiations as it attempts to push other countries for more action. “It will definitely improve the hand that special envoy [John] Kerry can play at the COP negotiations in Glasgow if legislation has been passed — in fact either bill, but of course ideally both,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher, who worked on climate diplomacy in the Obama administration. “Although the Biden administration put in place a number of executive orders at the beginning of his presidency, those policies will only take the United States so far,” she said. “Legislation is really essential to be able to put the United States on track for achievement of the 2025 target and of course also the new target that President Biden announced in April for 2030.”Former President Obama committed the U.S. to reducing its emissions 26 to 28 percent by 2025 compared to 2005 levels. President Biden in April said he hoped the U.S. would cut its emissions to 50 to 52 percent of the 2005 level by 2030. As of 2019, U.S. emissions were down 12 percent from 2005 levels, and then dropped almost 10 percent in a single year during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the International Energy Agency has warned of a spike in global emissions this year as economies look to rebound. Democrats are saying the infrastructure bills will help reach Biden’s more ambitious goals. In an August “Dear Colleague” letter, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said the legislation would bring the U.S. on track to cut its emissions by about 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 — and with other executive and state actions, that number would reach 50 percent. A version of the Democrats' bill put forward in the House has a number of climate provisions, including clean energy tax credits, a fee on methane emissions from the oil and gas industry, and a program that would seek to shift the bulk of the country’s electric power to renewable energy through payments and fines to power providers. But the size, scope and timeline of the bill — currently carrying a $3.5 trillion price tag — are being cast in doubt amid qualms from conservative Democrats. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has not only raised issues with the size of the bill but also with some of its climate provisions, particularly the electricity program. Nevertheless, forces both inside and outside Congress have said they hope to have a deal across the finish line as the U.S. seeks to restore its climate credibility on the world stage in the coming weeks. “Glasgow is a matter of weeks away. We want the president to be able to go there with a plan to meet our emissions promises and standards,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said late last month.Climate hawk Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) echoed those comments in a press conference with colleagues and climate activists outside the Capitol.“We must act in Congress before Joe Biden goes to meet with the rest of the world,” he said.
Carbon tax push reappears amid Democrats' budget negotiations - Economists have been saying for years that it’s the best way to force emissions reductions. Companies from Exxon Mobil to Gap to Pepsico say they support it. But the concept of a national carbon tax has always struggled to get off the ground in Washington, where Republicans and Democrats alike are weary of raising costs on consumers - even if it is avoid catastrophic impacts on weather and sea level rise due to climate change.But with Democrats trying to figure out how to pay for their $1.8 trillion to $2.2 trillion budget, the concept is getting new life, with reports that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin, the moderate Democrat from West Virginia, have been involved in discussions around using a carbon tax to raise revenue.“It’s absolutely on the table,” said Brad Townsend, vice president for policy and outreach at the Center for Climate and Energy Solution. “There’s been a lot of conversation around this. It’s an open question whether the votes are there. But I believe Senator Manchin might be more receptive to it than is commonly perceived to be the case.”Manchin and Schumer’s offices did not respond to requests for comment. Pressure isn’t just coming from climate activists.An essay this week by a staffer at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank whose membership includes oil companies and prominent Republicans — former Exxon CEO and secretary of state Rex Tillerson was once chairman — said a carbon tax could be a way to maintain spending and reduce emissions without increasing in corporate taxes, which has divided Democrats.Recent analysis by the nonprofit Resources for the Future predicted that at $15 per ton carbon tax, increasing to $30 per ton in 2028, would reduce economy-wide emissions roughly 45 percent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. And combined with Democrats’ proposed subsidies for clean energy and electric vehicles, that would push emissions reduction over President Joe Biden’s goal of 50 percent by the end of the decade, said Joseph Majkut, director, Energy Security and Climate Change Program.“It is clear that a carbon tax could help break the apparent impasse, and the tax mechanism fits nicely in the budget process,” he wrote.
Democrats Haggle Over How to Trim Reconciliation Bill - - Democrats are negotiating how to pare down President Joe Biden’s sweeping $3.5 trillion social spending package, as centrist Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema call for a smaller price tag. “In order to pass both the Build Back Better Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill on time, it is essential that difficult decisions must be made very soon,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told members in a letter yesterday. Biden’s $3.5 trillion proposal would include climate change provisions, two years of tuition-free community college, and universal prekindergarten, among other items. Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat, has said repeatedly that he is not willing to support anything more than $1.5 trillion—pushing Democrats to cut the plan by more than half. Democratic leaders are considering how to cut costs, including moving up the expiration dates of new programs and setting stricter income parameters for who can qualify. But they are also weighing which priorities should be pursued and which can be removed altogether. Pelosi said in her letter Monday that “overwhelmingly, the guidance I am receiving from Members is to do fewer things well so that we can still have a transformative impact on families in the workplace and responsibly address the climate crisis.” Congressional Democrats have to be almost completely unified in the House, where they only hold a slim majority, and they cannot afford to lose any support in the evenly divided Senate. Pelosi said this morning that she is “very disappointed that we’re not going with the original $3.5 trillion, which was very transformative.” She emphasized her priorities are to focus on expanding health care access, addressing climate change, and childcare provisions. “We’re still talking about a couple of trillion dollars, but it’s much less,” she told reporters. To pass the bill over Republican opposition through the budget reconciliation process, Democrats have to be almost completely unified in the House, where they only hold a slim majority—and they cannot afford to lose any support in the evenly divided Senate. The talks also hold a bipartisan infrastructure package in the balance: Progressives in the House are refusing to support the bill, which passed the Senate earlier this year, until Senate Democrats move on the broader social spending measure. Pelosi has set a new deadline of October 31 for passing the bipartisan infrastructure bill. The legislation includes more than $550 billion in new spending for roads, bridges, airports, and broadband. She said this morning she’s optimistic “that we will get to where we need to be in a timely fashion.”
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggests Democrats could cut major pieces of Biden's economic plan - Democrats could slash entire pieces of President Joe Biden's economic plan to push it through Congress, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested Monday. Party leaders have acknowledged they will likely have to cut $1 trillion or more from their $3.5 trillion social safety net and climate proposal. Trying to pass legislation with a razor-thin majority and no Republican votes, Democrats have to appease centrists who have called for a smaller bill. The dilemma has left lawmakers deciding how to cut costs, either by scaling back programs or scrapping some altogether. On Monday night, Pelosi signaled her party could opt to remove some policies from the proposal entirely while keeping others fully intact. VIDEO01:30 President Biden seeking votes for economic agenda "In order to pass both the Build Back Better Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill on time, it is essential that difficult decisions must be made very soon," she wrote to House Democrats, referencing the two planks of Biden's agenda. She continued: "Overwhelmingly, the guidance I am receiving from Members is to do fewer things well so that we can still have a transformative impact on families in the workplace and responsibly address the climate crisis: a Build Back Better agenda for jobs and the planet For The Children!" Pelosi did not say which pieces of the proposal could get cut, though she implied climate policy would remain a priority. The decision to scrap any part of the plan could affect the benefits millions of Americans would see from the legislation for years to come. Asked Tuesday morning about whether Democrats would drop entire programs from the proposal, Pelosi responded, "We hope not." House Democrats have enough votes to pass $3.5 trillion spending package The plan as first outlined would expand child care, paid leave and Medicare. It would extend enhanced household tax credits, create universal pre-K and make two years of community college free. It would also encourage the adoption of green energy and the construction of climate-resilient buildings and infrastructure, through tax credits and other incentives. As Democrats try to pass the legislation in the coming weeks, any effort to cut costs will come with significant tradeoffs. Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Pelosi said an enhanced child tax credit, expanded child care and universal pre-K "really go together." The party has had to tread carefully to move forward with both planks of Biden's agenda. The House had to delay approval of the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill after progressives threatened to vote against it until the Senate takes up Democrats' bigger plan. Democrats aim to pass their larger bill through budget reconciliation, which allows legislation to get through the Senate with a simple majority. Still, the party cannot afford any defections in the Senate and can lose only three votes in the House. Cutting programs to win over centrists such as Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., could risk support from progressives. For instance, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has championed Medicare expansion.
Jayapal hits Pelosi over comments on shrinking reconciliation bill in fundraising email - Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal is fundraising by criticizing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for a Monday comment that Democrats will have to cut the price of their reconciliation bill by including fewer programs in it. Jayapal's campaign sent the email, first reported by Politico and confirmed by Fox News through the site Archive of Political Emails, Tuesday evening. It cited the Monday letter from Pelosi, D-Calif., and comments she made in a Tuesday press conference to warn supporters that the speaker might be willing to cave on major progressive priorities to pass Democrats' reconciliation bill. "Did you see what Nancy Pelosi said late last night?" the email subject line reads. "Democrats should NOT leave child care, paid leave, universal pre-K, community college, affordable housing, Medicare expansion, climate action, and a roadmap to citizenship for Dreamers behind," the Jayapal, D-Wash., campaign email continues. "So why is Speaker Pelosi suggesting we should allow a couple of conservative Democrats to leave behind popular cornerstone policies of the $3.5 trillion Build Back Better Act? We need to deliver." In the Monday letter in question, Pelosi said "difficult decisions" will have to be made on what to include in the reconciliation bill. "Overwhelmingly, the guidance I am receiving from Members is to do fewer things well so that we can still have a transformative impact," she said. Pelosi both expanded on that comment at a Tuesday press conference and appeared to partially walk it back. She said she is "very disappointed" that the bill won't be at the original $3.5 trillion price but that a scaled-down package can still be a major win for Democrats. But pushed on what programs exactly would be on the chopping block, Pelosi did not get into specifics and said it is simply a "discussion." Questioned further on what the first programs to get the ax might be, the speaker said she did not know before saying, "The timing would be reduced in many cases to make the costs lower." Shortening the duration of a program to make its cost seem artificially low – in hopes that a future Congress will reauthorize it – is a common budget trick in Congress. But it seems at odds with Pelosi's Monday missive in which she said members wanted to do "fewer things well."
Democrats' reconciliation bill breaks Biden's middle class tax pledge – Opinion - During the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris promised over 50 times that they would not raise any tax on any American making less than $400,000 per year. But now, Democrats are pushing a multi-trillion-dollar socialist reconciliation bill that violates the pledge.They claim it will cost nothing because it is “paid for” by tax increases that won’t harm the middle class or those making less than $400,000 per year. This is false. The legislation costs trillions of dollars over the next decade and will harm working families and many Americans making less than $400,000 per year.Working families are already seeing tightening budgets and higher prices under President Biden. Consumer prices have increased by 5.4 percent over the last 12 months, a rate significantly higher than when President Biden took office, when consumer prices had increased by just 1.4 percent in the past 12 months.Gasoline has increased by 42.1 percent in the past year, meat has increased 12.6 percent, and televisions have increased by 12.7 percent. Children’s footwear has increased 11.9 percent, bacon has increased by 19.3 percent, and fresh seafood has increased by 10.6 percent.While Americans making less than $400,000 are already feeling the effects of this inflation, Biden and Democrats have proposed multiple tax increases that will directly impact these families.For instance, Democrats want to raise the corporate tax rate so that our rate is higher than China and Europe. Corporations will not bear the cost of these tax increases but will pass it along to working families in the form of higher prices, fewer jobs and lower wages. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that 25 percent of the corporate tax falls on workers while the Tax Foundation estimates that 70 percent of this tax is borne by labor.The left-of-center Tax Policy Center concluded that Biden’s budget would result in higher taxes for 74.1 percent of middle income-quintile households. By 2031, the TPC found that 95 percent of this income group will see a tax increase due to the expiration of middle-class tax cuts and corporate tax increases. This means that workers will be hundreds of billions worse off from the tax hikes being pushed by Democrats. Similarly, a 2020 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that 31 percent of the corporate tax falls on consumers. The corporate tax increase will also erode the life savings of Americans that have their life savings invested in 401(k)s, IRAs and the stock market.Eighty to 100 million Americans have a 401(k), 46.4 million householdshave an individual retirement account and half of Generation-Zers and Millennials are invested in stocks. Democrats have also proposed a $97 billion tax increase on tobacco and reduced risk tobacco alternatives. This tax increase will overwhelmingly hit low- and middle-income Americans. According to JCT, 77.5 percent of this tax will be paid by those making less than $100,000 per year, while 94.3 percent will be paid by those making $200,000 per year.The Biden administration has proposed subjecting every account exceeding gross inflows and outflows of $600 to this proposal, while Senate Democrats have suggested a threshold of $10,000. Anyone with a job, a mortgage or a rent payment will get snooped on. The IRS would automatically seize and store the data, likely forever. Working families making less than $400,000 per year will be impacted by this proposal and will be the target of IRS targeting auditing and harassment.
Gottheimer tells Dems to stop blocking infrastructure bill, 'get shovels in the ground' -- House Problem Solvers Caucus Chairman Josh Gottheimer says in a Tuesday op-ed for NJ.com that the House of Representatives should pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill quickly to get "shovels in the ground" during negotiations on Democrats' reconciliation bill. The missive from Gottheimer, D-N.J., comes despite the fact that top congressional Democrats, progressives and even President Biden's White House are all moving forward with a strategy of holding onto the infrastructure bill until negotiations on Democrats' reconciliation bill are complete. In the NJ.com piece, Gottheimer blames "some" of his colleagues for holding up the infrastructure bill. "You can see why many of us want to vote on it as soon as possible, send the infrastructure bill to the president’s desk, and immediately get shovels in the ground and people to work," Gottheimer said on NJ.com. "But here’s the rub. Recently, despite broad popularity, some of my colleagues blocked a vote on the infrastructure package. They wanted us to wait on it until we vote on the reconciliation bill." He added on NJ.com: "But the details of that legislation are still up in the air and require considerable debate and negotiation in the House and with the Senate. Meanwhile, infrastructure was passed in August and is still sitting in the House awaiting a vote." Gottheimer said he supports passing a reconciliation bill, even if he disagrees with some Democrats on what it should look like. And in the op-ed he characterized these differences over what the reconciliation bill should look like as "small." That is perhaps a stretch given the fact progressives want a bill that is trillions of dollars more expensive than what Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is demanding with his $1.5 trillion topline. But he nevertheless argued that Democrats should take their time negotiating on reconciliation while pushing through the infrastructure bill now.
Pramila Jayapal says of reconciliation and infrastructure bills that Democrats "will get it done" - "The Takeout" - Progressive Caucus Chair Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal maintains that child care, Medicare expansion, prescription drug price limits, climate change, immigration, and affordable housing will remain in the slimmed-down social spending bill being negotiated between the White House and congressional Democrats. But she concedes some programs may have to be altered. "Those five priorities still need to be in any final bill," Jayapal told CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett in this week's episode of "The Takeout" podcast. She added, "You can significantly cut down on the price tag by funding some of these programs for a shorter period of time." Previously, the measure was projected to cost $3.5 trillion, but that number has been cut at the insistence of moderate Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. The support of the two moderates is needed to pass the the social spending bill in the Senate, while progressives are holding up the passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill in the House until there's a deal on the social spending bill. Recently both Manchin and Sinema have been confronted by progressive protesters in public. Jayapal, however, downplayed any intraparty squabbling. "It is, as you know, a bit of a messy process. I don't think we're in disarray. I don't think we're in drift. I think we're about delivering, and that will happen. We will get it done," Jayapal said of the negotiations. "We all play on the same team." Jayapal said she's open to means testing social spending bill programs and sees it as an area of agreement unity between moderates and progressives, if they can agree on an approach. "A lot of the ways in which we've done means testing in this country have been really ineffective. There are ...simple ways to ensure that the richest people do not get the benefits," Jayapal said, adding that she hopes both Manchin and Sinema will support these proposals, given how policies in the American Rescue Plan, passed earlier this year, were also means-tested.
Affordable housing becomes flashpoint in D.C. spending showdown — The fate of affordable housing funding and other homeowner assistance programs has become a key battleground as lawmakers debate the Biden administration's $3.5 trillion social policy agenda. Lawmakers in the House and Senate are weighing a number of measures that, taken together, would amount to a historic expansion of affordable housing. They include billions of dollars for two federal housing funds, as much as $100 billion for down payment assistance, and even a proposal to enable mortgage borrowers to build equity faster. But many of the proposals could face the chopping block as Democrats seek to pare back the Build Better Back Act by as much as $2 trillion to satisfy centrists whose support is crucial for passage.
Major climate program likely to be nixed from spending package: reports - A major program in the Democrats’ push to fight climate change is likely to be removed from their spending plan amid opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), according to multiple reports. Both The New York Times and CNN reported the likely cut on Friday night, with the Times citing congressional staffers and lobbyists familiar while CNN cited three congressional sources. The program in question is called the Clean Electricity Payment Program, which would incentivize utilities to shift toward clean sources of energy using a mix of grants and fines. The proposed measure aimed to cut emissions from U.S. electricity production by 80 percent before the end of the decade. It is considered one of the package’s most important provisions in the effort to mitigate climate change. Manchin has publicly stated his opposition to the program, saying that since the industry is already moving in that direction, it doesn’t make sense to pay them to do what they’re already doing. He’s also raised concerns about reliability. Reached for comment on Friday night, Manchin spokesperson Sam Runyon reiterated the concern in an email on Friday night. “Senator Manchin has clearly expressed his concerns about using tax payer dollars to pay private companies to do things they’re already doing. He continues to support efforts to combat climate change while protecting American energy independence and ensuring our energy reliability,” Runyon said. The Times reported on Friday that in response to Manchin’s declared opposition to the White House, White House staffers are now rewriting the bill without the clean electricity measure.
Pelosi Scolds Reporters, Says They Should ‘Do a Better Job Selling’ Massive Reconciliation Package --With the House and Senate in recess, and the progressive-spearheaded $3.5 trillion social spending package left hanging in the balance, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi scolded the media Tuesday for not doing more promotional messaging for the program. Asked whether Democrats have failed to effectively persuade the public that a massive influx of social spending is necessary, Pelosi turned the question around on the reporter. “Well I think you all could do a better job of selling it, to be very frank with you, because every time I come here I go through the list: medical leave, climate, the issues that are in there,” Pelosi said. In a “Dear Colleague” letter sent Monday evening, Pelosi expressed a willingness from her caucus to pare down the number of programs in the reconciliation bill to a small number of permanent policy changes. “Overwhelmingly, the guidance I am receiving from Members is to do fewer things well so that we can still have a transformative impact on families,” she wrote. Another alternative under Democratic consideration is to pass a bill including the party’s entire policy wishlist but with shorter lifespans that would lower the top line cost and force Republicans to vote against extending the programs when they run up against deadlines in the coming years. Senior Democrats told Politico that the White House has signaled an openness to this avenue. To persuade the public, Pelosi, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, and other prominent Democrats have repeated the talking point that the Build Back Better plan will cost “zero dollars” because it is effectively subsidized by steep tax hikes on high-earners. Given the circumstances of the pandemic, Psaki said during a press briefing Tuesday that the Biden administration believes now is an opportune time to push the reconciliation plan and its legislative priorities, including expanding childcare, healthcare, climate crisis mitigation, education, and others. Psaki acknowledged during the briefing that the final document is unlikely to cost $3.5 trillion and will be “less than that,” given the partisan gridlock over that issue. With Democrats holding a very slim governing majority in both chambers, Psaki ensured the press that this was “not a political assessment.” “It was more about the moment we’re coming out of now,” she said. While Democrats have a chance at advancing the reconciliation bill in the House where their margin is greater, obstacles are mounting in the evenly split Senate, where moderate senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have rejected the original plan’s price tag, mainly citing inflation concerns. The president wants to make a “fundamental change in our economy,” she stated, and the COVID crisis is “exactly the time to do that.” Psaki noted that if the Democrats don’t lobby for universal pre-k, climate change action, and the like while they have consolidated control, they may not have an opportunity to pass them in the future.
Agenda of Biden’s Build Back Better Bill -- The same as the American Rescue Plan Act and the Improving Medicare Coverage Act, no one is talking of the detail within the Build Back Better Agenda bill. This makes it very vulnerable to pseudo Senators like Krysten Sinema and Joe Manchin who are holding out for what ever reasons or just for spite.
- Lower Child Care Costs: The President’s plan would ensure that no middle-class family pays more than 7 percent of their income for high-quality child care up to age 5—and that working families most in need won’t pay anything—saving the average family $14,800 per year. President Biden will also make universal preschool a reality, partnering with states to offer every parent access to high-quality preschool for 3- and 4- year-olds in the setting of their choice. Fully implementing this investment is projected to benefit five million families and save the average American family $13,000 per year. And the Build Back Better Agenda would institute 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave, to help improve the health of new mothers and reduce wage loss.
- Lower Higher Education Costs: The Build Back Better Agenda would provide two years of free community college—boosting the earnings of low-wage high school graduates by nearly $6,000 per year. President Biden’s plan will also increase the maximum Pell Grant award by almost $1,500, and invest billions in subsidized tuition for low- and middle-income students at Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Tribal Colleges and Universities, and minority-serving institutions. The plan also invests in evidence-based strategies to strengthen completion and retention rates at institutions that serve high numbers of low-income students, particularly community colleges.
- Lower Prescription Drug Costs: Americans pay 2-3 times more for their prescription drugs than people in other wealthy countries, and nearly 1 in 4 Americans struggle to afford prescription drugs. President Biden’s plan will lower prescription drug costs for Americans by letting Medicare negotiate drug prices, so consumers are no longer at the whim of pharmaceutical companies.
- Lower Health Care Costs: The Build Back Better Agenda would reduce health insurance premiums, saving 9 million people an average of $50 per person per month, and add dental, vision, and hearing coverage to Medicare. By closing the Medicaid gap for low-income Americans, the President’s plan would help 4 million uninsured people gain coverage. President Biden’s agenda would also expand home care for older and disabled Americans, while improving the jobs and the pay of the home care workers who care for them.
- Lower Housing Costs: Driven by the largest shortfall of new housing units in 50 years, rents and housing prices continue to increase—with some 10.5 million renters paying more than half their incomes in rent. The Build Back Better Agenda will use tax credits and government financing to bolster affordable and resilient housing, supporting the construction or rehabilitation of more than two million homes.
- Tax Cuts for Families with Children: The American Rescue Plan increased the Child Tax Credit from $2,000 per child to $3,000 per child for children six and over and $3,600 for children under six. The Build Back Better Agenda will extend the Child Tax Credit expansion in the American Rescue Plan, providing nearly 40 million households. This tax cut is the single largest contributor of the plan cutting child poverty nearly in half.
- Tax Cuts for Workers Without Children: The President’s agenda extends the American Rescue Plan’s increase to the Earned-Income Tax Credit from $543 to $1,502. This will benefit roughly 17 million low-wage workers, including cashiers, cooks, delivery drivers, food preparation workers, and child care providers.
Kyrsten Sinema Won't Support a Reconciliation Bill Without Passing Infrastructure: Report - Senator Kyrsten Sinema has reportedly told her Democratic colleagues that she will not vote for a reconciliation package without passing the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Sinema made the statement during a virtual meeting with moderate members of the House of Representatives on Wednesday, according to Reuters.The Arizona lawmaker is a key vote in the 50-50 divided Senate. Democrats can't afford to lose her support or that of fellow moderate Joe Manchin as they work to pass President Joe Biden's multi-trillion dollar "Build Back Better" agenda. Both lawmakers have expressed concern over the price tag of the reconciliation bill, as well as several policies ranging from prescription drug pricing to climate change.Meanwhile, progressive Democrats are threatening to tank the infrastructure vote if it is brought to the floor before an agreement is reached on the "Build Back Better" package.The $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which Sinema helped broker, was passed by the Senate in August. The House originally set a September 27 deadline to vote on the bill, but the vote has been repeatedly pushed back.Sinema called the delay "deeply disappointing" and "inexcusable.""Over the course of this year, Democratic leaders have made conflicting promises that could not all be kept—and have, at times, pretended that differences of opinion within our own party did not exist, even when those disagreements were repeatedly made clear directly and publicly," she said in a statement.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday urged her caucus to start making decisions so that both bills can pass on time. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said the goal is to move the two pieces of legislation to Biden's desk by the end of October.
Key to Biden’s Climate Agenda Likely to Be Cut Because of Manchin Opposition -The West Virginia Democrat told the White House he is firmly against a clean electricity program that is the muscle behind the president’s plan to battle climate change. The most powerful part of President Biden’s climate agenda — a program to rapidly replace the nation’s coal- and gas-fired power plants with wind, solar and nuclear energy — will likely be dropped from the massive budget bill pending in Congress, according to Congressional staffers and lobbyists familiar with the matter.Senator Joe Manchin III, the Democrat from coal-rich West Virginia whose vote is crucial to the passage of the bill, has told the White House that he strongly opposes the clean electricity program, according to three of those people. As a result, White House staffers are now rewriting the legislation without that climate provision, and are trying to cobble together a mix of other policies that could also cut emissions. … The $150 billion clean electricity program was the muscle behind Mr. Biden’s ambitious climate agenda. It would reward utilities that switched from burning fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, and penalize those that do not.Experts have said that the policy would dramatically reduce the greenhouse gases that are heating the planet over the next decade and that it would be the strongest climate change policy ever enacted by the United States. …Mr. Manchin, who has personal financial ties to the coal industry, had initially intended to write the details of the program as the chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Mr. Manchin was considering a clean electricity program that would reward utilities for switching from coal to natural gas, which is less polluting but still emits carbon dioxide and can leak methane, another greenhouse gas. Mr. Manchin’s home state, West Virginia, is one of the nation’s top producers of coal and gas. But in recent days, Mr. Manchin indicated to the administration that he was now completely opposed to a clean electricity program, people familiar with the discussions said. …
Digital divide fix at risk as $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill stalls – CNET - As Democrats in Congress wrestle over President Joe Biden's multitrillion-dollar package targeting everything from roads to child care, hanging in the balance is a small but critical sliver of the infrastructure bill seen as a possible salve to our digital divide problem. For more than two weeks, Democrats have been at an impasse over two bills at the center of Biden's domestic agenda, leaving in limbo the fate of the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that the Senate passed in August. This legislation provides long-overdue funding to upgrade traditional infrastructure, such as roads, bridges and electrical grids. But also included in the bill is a proposal for $65 billion in federal funding for broadband investment. On one side of the debate are progressives in the House, led by Pramila Jayapal, a Democrat from Washington, who have been threatening to sink the legislation if a much larger "human infrastructure" bill -- which includes money for child care, paid leave, universal pre-K, community college, affordable housing, Medicare expansion and climate action -- is not passed via budget reconciliation in the Senate. On the other side are two moderate Senate Democrats -- Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona -- who say the $3.5 trillion price tag is too hefty. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California postponed a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill in late September, setting a new deadline of Oct. 31 in the hopes the two sides can compromise. Biden, who sees both pieces of legislation as essential to his Build Back Betterdomestic agenda, says it will happen."It doesn't matter whether it's in six minutes, six days or six weeks," Biden said after Pelosi canceled a vote on the infrastructure bill in September. "We're going to get it done."But broadband experts are bracing for the worst. Some fear that a stalemate that results in the House not voting on the bipartisan infrastructure bill will fritter away a once-in-a-generation opportunity to finally close the digital divide, an issue that has dogged policy makers for decades. "I think we get one shot at this," said Mark Buell, regional vice president, North America, of the Internet Society. The bipartisan infrastructure bill includes a commitment of $42 billion to deploy broadband where it doesn't yet exist. Where broadband is available, it promises another $14.2 billion to create a permanent $30-a-month-subsidy program to help low-income Americans afford service. The bill offers an additional $2.75 billion for digital equity and inclusion efforts, which could end digital redlining, the practice of internet service providers avoiding lower-income areas -- typically neighborhoods with large populations of people of color -- where they don't think they'll make money. "Out of crisis is opportunity," FCC acting chair Jessica Rosenworcel said in an interview with CNET last month. "With this crisis, we've ended the days where we talk about broadband as a 'nice-to-have.' Policymakers everywhere now understand it's a 'need-to-have' for everyone across this country."
Popularism and the Child Tax Credit -By Matt Bruenig -Ezra Klein did a piece last week about David Shor and so-called “popularism,” which was ultimately defined this way:Democrats should do a lot of polling to figure out which of their views are popular and which are not popular, and then they should talk about the popular stuff and shut up about the unpopular stuff.I thought Ezra did a good job with the piece and I left the piece mostly unshaken in my views about what messaging wins elections, which are ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. It’s an important topic that reminds me of a similar debate about what unions need to do to reinvigorate the labor movement. Winning elections and reinvigorating the labor movement are critical to social democracy. Both are hard to do. Both have a bunch of self-styled gurus claiming to know the secret sauce. And yet, after reading a ton of words about both, I really don’t know the answer and I am pretty skeptical of those that say they do.Although I don’t have much to say about the theory of “popularism,” I have recently had a run-in with its theoretician, the man himself, David Shor. In general, I am fond of Shor even if I am not so sure about the whole genre of election messaging theories. He got fired for some bullshit and he’s good with numbers. What’s not to like? Well, his opinion on the Child Tax Credit for one.At Yglesias’s Slow Boring newsletter, Shor argued that the Democrats should create a stricter income test for the monthly Child Tax Credit in order to make the benefit permanent. If we put aside certain policy confusions contained in the piece, the argument is fairly simple: if we have a fixed pot of money to work with, it would be better to use that money to make the CTC permanent (rather than just extending it a few years) instead of using that money to keep the benefit nearly universal, which it currently is.From a popularism perspective, the whole piece is very confusing.For starters, popularism is supposed to be about what you say not what you do. Popularism does not tell us to do popular things and not do unpopular things. It tells us to talk about popular things and not talk about unpopular things, all while doing whatever we want. In this sense, issue polling, no matter how scrupulously done, is simply irrelevant to the question at hand since the question is about policy and not about messaging.But even if you allow popularism to inform policy decisions, in this case, it seems like it would have reached the opposite conclusion than the one Shor did. In the piece, Shor says that a fully universal CTC polls at 49% while a CTC that phases out at $50k of income polls at 53% (4 points higher!). Normal people might look at these numbers and conclude that it doesn’t seem to matter very much whether you make the benefit universal or have a strict income test. But Shor knows better:The CTC with no income threshold — meaning it’s not means-tested at all — ranks in the 21st percentile of the nearly 200 issues Blue Rose Research has polled. Targeting the expanded CTC only to households making less than $50,000, however, ranks in the 60th percentile. That’s the difference between an issue Democrats will face attacks on and one they can feel comfortable talking about.
Sanders blames media for Americans not knowing details of Biden spending plan -Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) blamed the media, in part, for Americans not knowing what is in a sweeping social spending plan being negotiated by the White House and Congressional Democrats. Sanders, in a statement, said it is "absurd" that many Americans don't know what is in President Biden's plan and, while cautioning that there could be many reasons for that, launched a broadside against how the bill has been covered by the press. "The reality that the mainstream media has done an exceptionally poor job in covering what actually is in the legislation," Sanders said. "There have been endless stories about the politics of passing Build Back Better, the role of the president, the conflicts in the House and the Senate, the opposition of two senators, the size of the bill, etc. – but very limited coverage as to what the provisions of the bill are and the crises for working people that they address," he added. Sanders's statement comes as Democrats are struggling to break through on the spending plan, amid an intense focus on the price tag for the bill and weeks of high-profile Democratic squabbling over the still-being-negotiated legislation. Democrats want to use the spending bill to carry some of their biggest priorities including expanding Medicare and Medicaid, new child care and education benefits, combatting climate change and overhauling the tax code. The specifics of what Democrats will ultimately include are still in flux as they try to figure the size of the bill and what policies can unite their razor-thin majorities. While many of the ideas behind the spending bill are popular with voters, a CBS News poll released this week found that only 10 percent of Americans knew a lot about the specifics and 57 percent indicated they didn’t know any details about the multitrillion-dollar proposal. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) took a similar tack to Sanders earlier this week when asked about the CBS poll, telling reporters that "I think you all could do a better job of selling it, to be very frank with you." The CBS News poll found that the potential cost of the bill topped a list of what Americans had heard about the legislation. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they had heard about $3.5 trillion in spending compared to 40 percent who said they had heard about lowering drug prices under Medicare or expanding Medicare to cover hearing, vision and dental — two big priorities for Democrats. Democrats have been frustrated with the intense focus on the scope of the bill including what they will land on for a top-line number. Though House and Senate Democrats previously approved a budget that lets them pass a bill of up to $3.5 trillion on their own, bypassing a GOP filibuster, the final bill is increasingly expected to be significantly smaller.
Democrats Scramble to Keep Immigration Overhaul Alive - NYTimes — President Biden’s efforts to finally make progress on a comprehensive overhaul of the nation’s immigration system have been stalled by Republicans, blocked by courts and rejected for violating arcane Senate rules. Now, Democratic leaders are “seriously considering” a long-shot proposal intended to get around the political and procedural roadblocks by including language in the president’s sweeping social safety net package to provide temporary legal status to millions of undocumented immigrants, according to three congressional officials and several others familiar with the plans. They asked for anonymity to discuss the details of private negotiations. The proposal — which drops one of the president’s key demands to create a direct path to citizenship for the immigrants — faces a string of challenges before it could even be formally considered for inclusion in Mr. Biden’s bill. But the fact that Democrats are still trying to wrestle it into the legislation is a sign of how desperate they are to fulfill promises they made to a critical segment of the party’s electoral coalition. “This is a solution that gets us closer to our North Star of citizenship for 11 million,” said Kerri Talbot, the deputy director of the Immigration Hub, a pro-immigration group. “Lasting protections for 8 million people is nothing short of a breakthrough.” Under the plan, the immigration measures would be included in the social safety net bill that Democrats intend to pass unilaterally through a fast-track process known as budget reconciliation, which allows certain spending and tax bills to pass by a simple majority vote. Those measures would expand the Homeland Security secretary’s authority to grant a temporary status known as parole to those who are undocumented and have lived in the United States for a decade or more, shielding them from deportation. But the plan would have to pass muster with Elizabeth MacDonough, the Senate parliamentarian, who serves as the chamber’s arbiter of Senate rules that limit what can be included in Mr. Biden’s bill. She shot down previous attempts to include a path to citizenship in the reconciliation bill, saying the immigration plan was too vast and did not have enough of a direct impact on the budget. Those decisions have been cheered by Republicans, who have repeatedly criticized Democrats for trying to use an arcane budgetary maneuver to enact robust policy changes. Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, has accused the Democrats of pushing for “a sweeping amnesty with no effort to control the growing immigration crisis and the southern border.” But Democrats say they are still exploring what they can do to further the Biden agenda within the Byzantine rules of the Senate, including using the reconciliation process to bypass any Republican filibusters. Democrats say they remain committed to finding a way to pursue a path to citizenship, but believe the latest option would be a chance to more quickly help many immigrants in light of the parliamentarian’s rulings. They note it is only one of several options they have for trying to make changes to the immigration system through reconciliation. Significantly, the proposal would not put the millions of undocumented immigrants on a direct path to citizenship — the new measure alone would not entitle them to immediately get green cards. Immigrants currently eligible for a green card, such as the parents of adult U.S. citizens, would still be able to pursue citizenship under the plan. Supporters of the plan have argued that the watered-down proposal should satisfy the parliamentarian, who had criticized the size of earlier versions. The legislation would offer undocumented immigrants not just protection from deportation, but also the ability to obtain a work permit — a point that immigration advocates say should more clearly connect the provision to the federal budget, making it easier for the parliamentarian to allow it under the rules of reconciliation.
Biden to reimplement Trump's Remain in Mexico in November - The Biden administration told the courts late Thursday that it plans to reimplement the Trump-era "Remain in Mexico" policy in mid-November if it can get buy-in from the neighboring government. The move comes after an initial victory by Texas and Missouri in a suit that argued the Biden administration too hastily withdrew the policy, under which the U.S. transported 70,000 asylum-seekers to Mexico to await a determination in their case. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has appealed the case and is working on a memo to rescind the program anew, but it is still required to reimplement what was formally termed the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) “in good faith.” The announcement follows a series of meetings with high-level officials from the Mexican government. “Mexico is a sovereign nation that must make an independent decision to accept the return of individuals without status in Mexico as part of any reimplementation of MPP. Discussions with the Government of Mexico concerning when and how MPP will be reimplemented are ongoing,” DHS said in a statement Thursday. In the court filing the government writes that Mexico “has made clear that it has concerns about aspects of how MPP was previously implemented,” taking pains to stress that much of the program’s future implementation relies on securing Mexico’s blessing. In a call Thursday, DHS told multiple outlets that it would seek to curb some of the effects of the program as implemented under the Trump administration, which saw many migrants simply give up on their cases after lengthy waits in dangerous refugee camps along the border. DHS officials said it has a "general commitment" to deciding new asylum cases within six month and plans to construct “tent courts” near Laredo and Brownsville, Texas. It also plans to expand the types of asylum-seekers who will not be subjected to MPP, but the filing doesn’t provide details on who that would include, such as families with children. Mexico has argued that the sick, elderly, as well as those in the LGBT community, should be exempt from MPP.
Tucker Carlson mocks Buttigieg over paternity leave --Fox News host Tucker Carlson mocked Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on Thursday for taking paternity leave following the birth of his adopted twins. "Pete Buttigieg has been on leave from his job since August after adopting a child. Paternity leave, they call it. Trying to figure out how to breastfeed, no word on how that went," Carlson said on his primetime show.Buttigieg, who has been on leave since mid-August, announced in early September that he and his husband Chasten had welcomed adopted twins — Penelope Rose and Joseph August. The two, who have been married since 2018, havepreviously said they wanted to start a family. The comments from Carlson, whose employer has a six-week paternity leave policy, come as his own colleagues have praised the very policy he criticized. “Now I am pro-paternity. I used to mock people for taking paternity, I used to think it was a big ruse, but now, ya know, I wish I could take six weeks," fellow Fox News host Jesse Waters said in mid-April. Waters took time off following the birth of his third child.
A coronavirus pandemic reality check - Around the world, from North America to Asia, governments are abandoning all measures to stop the spread of COVID-19, reopening schools, workplaces and mass gatherings. To justify these measures, the media endlessly promotes the false claim that the coronavirus pandemic is effectively over.The reality is quite the opposite. In the past seven days, there have been more than 620,000 new cases recorded in the US and at least 10,000 official deaths as a result of the pandemic. Worldwide, the number of new cases grew by more than 2.8 million and nearly 48,000 human beings were added to the tally of the dead. As it has been since it first emerged, the virus continues to be a mortal threat for every person on the planet.Such figures did not stop the New York Times from publishing an opinion piece on Thursday by Paul Krugman entitled, “What if Things Are About to Get Better?” According to Krugman, the ongoing colossal loss of life should merely be viewed as the end of “the summer of our discontent,” as worded by the Times columnist. That nearly 86,000 people died in the US between June 21 and September 22, including more than 160 children, is of no consequence.Instead, Krugman argues that because of a relative drop in cases in the US and limited vaccine mandates by the federal government and various corporations, the population “can feel fairly safe going back to the office, going out to eat and—most important of all—sending their children to school.” Moreover, workers must overcome their “unwillingness” to “engage in risky activities” and simply accept reopenings and the tens of thousands the inevitable premature deaths they will cause.The Times piece also ignores the inconvenient fact that there is still no vaccine for children under 12, meaning that tens of millions of infants and school children are still vulnerable to the pandemic. Data from the American Academy of Pediatrics shows that hundreds of thousands of children are infected each week, alongside rising hospitalizations. The vast majority of these infections are caused by what Krugman views as “most important,” children being back in schools.There is also no consideration of the spread of the pandemic in other countries. Eastern Europe continues to be one of the hardest hit regions of the pandemic. Poland has suffered more than 11,000 new cases and 175 new deaths in the past week, both figures up 50 percent from the week before. Ukraine has had a similar spike, reporting more than 82,000 new cases and nearly 1,700 dead over the last seven days. In Romania, cases have jumped to 89,000 every seven days, a 28 percent increase, while deaths have climbed to 1,762 per week, a 49 percent increase.Even in Germany, often hailed as a model for Europe’s pandemic response, both new cases and deaths have risen by about 25 percent during the last seven days compared to the preceding seven days. Official figures of cases and deaths over the past week climbed to 68,000 and 400, respectively.One of the worst hit countries is Russia, where cases and deaths have spiked sharply in recent weeks. Daily new cases have been rising in the country since mid-September and are approaching the peak seen last December. As a result of this surge, there were a record 6,400 deaths reported in the country last week.
Ending COVID once and for all has to be a global fight -- The United States has now surpassed 700,000 deaths in the COVID-19 pandemic and the vast majority of the more recent fatalities occurredamong unvaccinated people. The challenge in the United States is no longer vaccine supply. Americans are now dying from a preventable illness due to a plague of misinformation and mistrust. At the same time many in under-resourced countries around the world are dying because they cannot access vaccines and COVID-19 therapeutics. This inequality in access represents a shared global public health threat. If we allow SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, to replicate globally, not only will countless lives be lost to a preventable illness, but we risk the emergence of a new variant that can circumvent current vaccine and therapeutic tools that offer protection from one of the world’s deadliest outbreaks in modern times.In the absence of a concerted global effort to ensure equal access to vaccines and therapeutics, we are enabling the virus to replicate, evolve and evade our current strategies of prevention and treatment. Two clear examples of this risk include the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including the B.1.351 beta variant, which can evade neutralization by one of the currently available monoclonal antibody treatments, and the B.1.621 mu variant that carries mutations that may help it circumvent vaccine and infection-induced immunity. These variants are warnings of what lies ahead if we perpetuate the inequity in access to prevention and treatment strategies that exist today. The same time the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention endorsed a recommendation that Americans over 65 and those with compromised immune systems were eligible for a third booster shot. The Director General of the World Health Organization, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, reacted strongly against the third dose plan, saying it will“make a mockery of vaccine equity” The reality is we don’t have to choose between booster shots here and initial shots there. A global pandemic requires a global solution and creating private-public partnerships between resource rich countries and biopharmaceutical companies can ensure increased vaccine and therapeutic production locally. The success of vaccines and therapeutics can no longer be measured just by safety and efficacy, but must also include access as well.Despite the research that has been done on the threat posed by new COVID variants, more emphasis remains on national communities in the West. This pandemic can take new forms as variants emerge, and sadly, while diseases don’t respect national borders, access to vaccines and therapeutics too often do. It is time to create a global public health network for a global challenge.Vaccines are being produced by commercial entities that are making billions of dollars. These companies have strongly opposed waiving the intellectual property restrictions (particularly, the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, or TRIPS) on sharing their formulas with other countries, even though the Biden administration has recommended they do so. COVID-19 is not going away and if history is any indicator of the future, more viruses are likely to emerge and once again threaten global public health. Over the past 20 years, we have witnessed the emergence and re-emergence of viruses with epidemic and pandemic potential including Ebola, Lassa virus, Influenza and three coronaviruses (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2). If we are to be fully prepared for future outbreaks, we need to recognize that an outbreak anywhere is a threat to lives everywhere. The only effective response will require equal access to vaccines, diagnostics, and therapeutics.
‘Waive the Patents’: Moderna Still Refuses to Share Covid-19 Vaccine Recipe --With Moderna already under fire globally for prioritizing the vaccination demands of rich countries in the ongoing fight against Covid-19, the chairman and co-founder reiterated Monday that the American company will not share its vaccine recipe.In an interview with The Associated Press, Moderna’s Noubar Afeyan claimed that appeals from the World Health Organization (WHO) and others to share the recipe assumed “that we couldn’t get enough capacity, but in fact we know we can.”“Within the next six to nine months, the most reliable way to make high-quality vaccines and in an efficient way is going to be if we make them,” Afeyan said, noting that Moderna “went from having zero production to having one billion doses in less than a year” and “we think we will be able to go from one to three billion” next year. “We think we are doing everything we can to help this pandemic,” added Afeyan, who is among the Moderna founders who were named to Forbes‘ list of the 400 richest people in the United States for the first time last week. Afeyan also said Moderna—which has received billions of dollars from the U.S. government for development and doses of its messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine—will continue to not enforce patent infringement during the pandemic, adding that “we didn’t have to do that.”“We think that was the right, responsible thing to do,” he said of the decision to not legally go after others making Covid-19 vaccines during the crisis. “We want that to be helping the world.” Critics of Moderna and other vaccine makers have argued that Big Pharma can help battle the pandemic by supporting patent waivers and widely sharing necessary information about vaccines and treatments to rapidly scale up production.
Dem Lawmakers Demand Moderna Share Vaccine Recipe To "Expand Global Access" - During an interview with the AP last week, Moderna Chairman Noubar Afeyan reaffirmed that Moderna wouldn't bring any patent infringement lawsuits against rival firms that infringe on Moderna's patent to produce copies of its mRNA COVID jab. But here's the catch: When the WHO pressed Moderna to share its vaccine formula with companies in emerging markets to help hasten the rollout of mRNA jabs, Afeyan refused, claiming that Moderna had analyzed whether it would be better to share the messenger RNA technology, and determined that it could expand production and deliver billions of additional doses in 2022."Within the next six to nine months, the most reliable way to make high-quality vaccines and in an efficient way is going to be if we make them," Afeyan said. While we wouldn't accuse a major pharmaceutical company of bending the truth to suit its own financial interests, we find it difficult to imagine how Moderna could possibly produce more jabs on its own, than by sharing its tech with other producers."We think we are doing everything we can to help this pandemic," Afeyan added. It's worth noting that Afeyan is among the Moderna founders who were named to Forbes' list of the 400 richest people in the US for the first time last week. Now, a cadre of progressive Dems are taking a break from the increasingly fraught intra-party negotiations over President Biden's domestic agenda to chide Moderna to do the right thing and share its recipe - before they push the federal government to use its overarching power to simply take Moderna's IP and share it with the world.Because according to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Moderna's contract with the federal government (which supplied the firm with billions of dollars to aide in development and distribution) may allow the government to access and share Moderna's COVID vaccine technology.In a letter to the Biden administration, lawmakers urged the president "to take bold steps to dramatically expand global COVID-19 vaccine access and manufacturing capabilities."The letter was signed by Senators Warren, Jeff Merkley, Tammy Baldwin, Brian Schatz, Tina Smith and Sherrod Brown and Representatives Pramila Jayapal, Jan Schakowsky, Lloyd Doggett, Mark Pocan, Maxine Waters and Raja Krishnamoorthi.Critics of Moderna and the rest of the big vax makers have argued that Big Pharma could more effectively combat COVID by widely sharing necessary information about how to produce, store and distribute them. However, what was once known as the "open vaccine" movement was kneecapped early on when Bill Gates declared himself the world's de fact COVID vaccine czar, and insisted that respecting Big Pharma's patent rights must be paramount.
Biden employer vaccine mandate could be finalized as early as next week— The Biden administration’s requirement that companies ensure workers are vaccinated or tested regularly for Covid could be finalized as early as next week, pending a final White House review, according to a person familiar with the process.The Labor Department said it had submitted the initial text of the rule, which would require employers with 100 or more workers to ensure that their employees are vaccinated or tested regularly, on late Tuesday to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). That review process generally takes one to two weeks, but given the urgency of the pandemic it is expected that the OMB will move quickly, the person said.Since President Joe Biden announced the plans on Sept. 10, White House officials and aides from the Labor Department have been discussing how to craft the requirement, administration officials have said. There have been dozens of questions for officials to resolve, including how employers will verify their workers are vaccinated, who will bear the cost of weekly testing, what type of test will be required, and how employees working from home will be handled. “Just last month, we said it was coming in weeks. That remains the case, and when it's out, that will be accurate,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday, when asked about the timing. “But also, there isn't a big historic precedent for this and we want to get it right, and the team at OSHA, the team at the Department of Labor wants to get it right, wants to be able to create some clarity for businesses around the country.”Once OMB concludes its review, the full regulation will be published in the Federal Register, where employers will be able to see for the first time the details of what will be required of them. Under law, OMB has 90 days to complete its review or ask for an extension, but Psaki and other administration officials have said since September that the mandate would be coming in a matter of weeks not months.
Navy releases guidance to discharge sailors refusing COVID-19 vaccine - All active-duty sailors who refuse to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by Nov. 28 will face discharge, according to new Navy guidance released Thursday.The guidance, which also sets a deadline for all Navy Reserve sailors to be fully vaccinated by Dec. 28, outlines the consequences for those who fail to comply. “Sailors must be prepared to execute their mission at all times, in places through out the world, including where vaccination rates are low and disease transmission is high,” according to the notice. “Immunizations are of paramount importance to protecting the health of the force and the warfighting readiness of the Fleet.”To meet the deadlines, active-duty sailors must receive their final dose of the vaccine by Nov. 14 while those in the Navy Reserve need their last shot by Dec. 14, giving individuals a two-week period for the dose to take full effect.Navy personnel are allowed to request a vaccine exemption for medical or religious reasons.The guidance follows Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s order in late August for all service members and military personnel to “immediately begin” getting the COVID-19 vaccine. Currently, about 94 percent of active-duty sailors and 89 percent of the total force are fully immunized against coronavirus, while 94 percent of the total force have received at least one shot, according to Navy figures released Wednesday. To separate sailors who refuse to comply with the mandatory policy, the Navy has formed the COVID Consolidated Disposition Authority (CCDA) to “ensure a fair and consistent process” in deciding how to handle a possible discharge. Naval Personnel head Vice Adm. John Nowell and Chief of Naval Reserve Vice Adm. John Mustin will oversee the new authority.
The U.S. will reopen its land borders for fully vaccinated travelers. — The Biden administration will lift travel restrictions at the borders with Canada and Mexico starting in November for fully vaccinated travelers, reopening the doors of the United States to tourists and separated family members who have been sealed out of the country during the pandemic.Foreign travelers who provide proof of vaccination and are looking to visit families or friends or shop in the United States will be allowed to enter, senior administration officials said on Tuesday, weeks after the administration said it would soon lift a similar sweeping restriction on foreigners traveling to the country from overseas.The lifting of the bans will effectively mark the reopening of the United States to travelers and tourism, signaling a new phase in the recovery from the pandemic after the country closed its borders for nearly 19 months.But the new requirements also indicate that the United States will welcome only visitors who are vaccinated. Unvaccinated travelers will continue to be banned from crossing the borders with Mexico or Canada, officials said. Those who were never banned from traveling across the land borders, including commercial drivers and students, will also need to show proof of vaccination when crossing starting in January, giving them some time to adjust to the new rules, officials said.The travel restrictions, imposed in March 2020, only applied to “nonessential travelers” — relatives looking to visit family members, or shoppers, whom border communities relied on for profits. Politicians representing such communities have pleaded with the Biden administration to lift the restrictions to provide a reprieve for suffering businesses. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Democrat of New York, said the restrictions had cost Erie County in her state at least $660 million annually.“This reopening will be welcome news to countless businesses, medical providers, families and loved ones that depend on travel across the northern border,” Ms. Gillibrand said. More than half of the 20.7 million people who visited the United States from Canada in 2019 traveled by crossing the land border, according to the U.S. Travel Association, a trade group. More than 15 million people visited the United States that year by crossing the land border with Mexico, roughly 85 percent of all of the visitors who entered legally from Mexico.
Two conservatives resign from Biden's Supreme Court commission - study proposals for reforming the Supreme Court. The departures Friday came from University of Virginia law professor Caleb Nelson, a former clerk to Justice Clarence Thomas, and Harvard Law professor Jack Goldsmith, former top official in the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel under President George W. Bush. Nelson confirmed to The Hill that he resigned, adding “it was an honor for me to be part of the Commission.” Goldsmith did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The White House expressed its appreciation for the professors' five-month tenure on the commission, but did not provide an explanation for the departures. “These two commissioners have chosen to bring their involvement to a close,” White House spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement. “We respect their decision and very much appreciate the significant contributions that they made during the last 5 months in terms of preparing for these deliberations.” The resignations came a day after the commission released preliminary findings that assessed the advantages and drawbacks of several court reform proposals. Although the commission did not take positions on the potential measures, the draft report sounded a note of caution about the risks associated with adding justices to the bench, a measure favored by some liberals. When the commission convened Friday, several liberal members criticized the draft discussion materials over its treatment of the court expansion proposal, according to excerpts of the meeting distributed by the progressive court reform advocacy group Demand Justice. Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe said the draft report “created the impression that although as a theoretical matter enlarging the court is a possibility, the arguments for it are swamped by the arguments against.”
Debate rages over Biden's proposed $600 IRS reporting requirement for bank accounts --Congress is out of town but the debate over Democrats' massive reconciliation spending bill continues, including over one provision that would require banks to report the inflows and outflows of any account with more than $600 in activity per year to the IRS. Biden highlighted the provision in a Sept. 16 speech, pushing the bill as a way to go after rich people and close the wealth gap. "It would ask just for two pieces of information from the banks of these folks – the amounts that come into their bank accounts and the amounts that go out of their bank accounts," Biden said. The president added that this is so they can "pay what they owe, what the existing tax code calls for." William Gale, senior fellow at Brookings Institution, supports the proposal because he says it would help make the tax system fair for all Americans, most of whom make their money from wages and have their taxes withheld by their employers. "It's basically like there's two systems of tax enforcement in place – for rank and file workers, middle class families, you know almost all their income is wages, and there's virtually no evasion on that," Gale said. "For high income households a much bigger proportion of their income is capital income, and the reporting is much more lenient on that and so the evasion rate is much higher." Gale also said that besides super rich individuals with massive capital income, owners of sole proprietorships, partnerships and farms also account for a large amount of unreported income that the IRS could go after. "Suppose you're a house painter," Gale said, using a contractor as an example of a business that could be a sole proprietorship. "They paint your house and charge you a thousand bucks. There's not withholding of taxes on that. There's no reporting. The homeowner doesn't report that payment to the government." "And so the house painter might report, ‘Well, I made $500,’ to the government and keep the other $500 as unreported income," Gale continued. "It helps them target, you know, rather than trying to guess where to look, it gives them a better sense where to look," Gale said of how the reporting requirement would help the IRS detect fraud and get more money without increasing taxes. Gale also said that the requirement would impose no burden on individual taxpayers and essentially no burden on banks, who do most of their business digitally and already alert customers of large transactions or even minor overdrafts. "It already sends the information to the individual via, ‘Here’s your checking account statement and here's your saving account statement,'" Gale said. "All it is, is adding another address to the address line." Gale dismissed privacy concerns of those who point out that the reporting requirement would be handing over inflow and outflow information of nearly every bank account in the United States. Any account used to pay rent, receive paychecks, buy groceries over the course of a year, or anything similar, would be subject to the $600 reporting requirement.
Biden's IRS proposal could mark the end of privacy in banking - President Biden’s tax compliance initiatives seek to close the ‘tax gap’ between taxes owed to the government and the taxes actually paid. To achieve this, financial institutions would have to provide information about the total outflows and inflows for all accounts holding $600 or more to the IRS. All of this sounds innocent enough, even laudable, when the IRS claims that this would add $700 billion in additional tax revenue over the next decade. But the IRS will only be able to handle all of this essential information if its aged IT systems are updated, which will inevitably cost billions. But the administration believes the investment to update the system and find sufficient, highly skilled personnel will bring quick returns. Biden’s proposal has the enthusiastic support of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who wrote a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Richard Neal (D-Mass.), chairman of the House of Ways and Means Committee, endorsing the idea. Never mind all that. The real result, given Biden’s $600 threshold, will be to flood the IRS with reporting on over 140 million bank accounts and to end financial privacy, given that the IRS cannot handle the tax returns it already receives. The Treasury notes that it already receives third party confirmation of wages, salaries and pensions when taxes are deducted at-source. In these cases, compliance rates are over 95 percent. That applies to over 50 percent of those in employment and to millions of pensioners. So why insist that financial institutions should report on all the accounts they manage? What is the point of burdening them with another layer of reporting? It looks as though the Treasury is cutting off the branch on which it is sitting. Such a requirement has nothing to do with tax evasion by complex partnerships or the cleverly constructed tax schemes for the well-off or for multinational companies. The additional avalanche of reports could simply get in the way. Some Democrats are trying to relieve banks of some of the burden by setting the threshold at a somewhat higher level, but still very low, perhaps $10,000. If so, they would do well to examine those in the lowest levels of income (although not all in these brackets will have a bank account). They would soon find that the $10,000 threshold easily catches individuals at the lowest federal poverty level of $12,880, and that over 80 percent of their income is spent on necessities such as housing, transportation, food, healthcare and education. The proposal gives the IRS extensive access to an individual’s account. It is difficult to know why the administration wants to know the contents of anyone’s grocery bill. But it is easy to see the temptation it would create for bureaucracies to interfere in your life. Maybe you are buying too much beef or sugary drinks. Maybe you are buying too much gas or making political donations they do not like. Furthermore, the IRS already requires information, not only about every employee or contractor, but also about anyone who pays or receives interest or makes capital gains. So what is the underlying reason for this extension of reporting? The next step could be to tap into the Automated Clearing House system, which has the image and the data for every check — physical or electronic — and covers routing numbers, accounts, amounts paid and the payee. All the bank has to do is to send a copy of whatever it sends to the ACH service, to the IRS. The temptation for the government could be to use the more precise data on patterns of expenditure, to interfere in people’s private affairs. Such big data is always valuable … for private companies as well.
Republicans unveil bill to block Biden's 'egregious' IRS bank-monitoring plan - House Republicans plan to unveil a bill on Friday to block the Biden administration's deeply controversial proposal to give the Internal Revenue Service additional scrutiny over most Americans' bank accounts in order to crack down on wealthy tax cheats. The GOP lawmakers' legislation – known as the Prohibiting IRS Financial Surveillance Act – would prevent the IRS from adopting any form of Biden's proposal by barring new reporting requirements for banks that would require them to disclose information on individuals' private accounts. The rule would not apply to an existing law that requires banks to report any transaction that exceeds $10,000 to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network – part of banks' anti-money laundering requirements. The bill from Rep. Drew Ferguson, R-Ga., would prohibit Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen from requiring financial institutions to report the in-flows and out-flows of any account they maintain, excluding any monitoring that exists under current law. It was co-sponsored by every Republican member of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, including ranking member Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas. "This IRS surveillance is an invasion of individual’s privacy and with Democrats' history of weaponizing the IRS for their own political gain, it's in every American's best interest that we prevent the use of private financial information for this type of egregious power play," Ferguson said in a statement to FOX Business. Biden's plan would force banks, credit unions and other financial institutions to annually report customers' account deposits and withdrawals of $600 or more to the IRS. While individual transactions would not be listed, the policy would apply to almost every Americans' bank account. The White House has estimated the policy, which would apply to bank, loan and investment accounts, could generate about $463 billion in additional revenue over the next decade. But the proposal has elicited a fierce backlash from banks who say it would increase compliance costs and add to the already existing burden the industry faces in turning over information to the government and from Republicans who say it amounts to the worst type of government overreach. "We should not allow the IRS to invade the privacy of Americans by snooping into their bank accounts," Ferguson said. "The Biden Administration and Congressional Democrats have clearly demonstrated their intent to instate a broad financial surveillance regime using Americans’ private financial information."
‘Unequivocally false’: Treasury says critics misrepresent IRS reporting plan | American Banker — The Treasury Department said opponents of a plan requiring that banks report more customer data to the Internal Revenue Service are peddling “misinformation.”The reporting proposal, staunchly opposed by banks, is currently under consideration as a revenue raiser amid Democratic efforts in Congress to pass an ambitious social spending package. It would require banks to submit two new data points to the IRS for certain accounts: aggregate annual inflows and outflows. But the Biden administration appears concerned that a centerpiece of its tax compliance policy — intended to help the IRS crack down on wealthier Americans who are not paying what they owe — is being misrepresented.
Bannon Faces Criminal Contempt Charge After Ignoring Subpoena From Pelosi's Jan. 6 Committee - Former Trump campaign chief and White House Chief Strategist (if only for a brief while) Steve Bannon is bracing for another round of criminal charges after refusing to participate in Nancy Pelosi's committee investigating the events of the Jan. 6 "storming of the Capitol" (as Pelosi's fond of describing it). Even though he had nothing to do with organizing the event or participating in it, Bannon was subpoenaed by Congress to appear before the select committee on Thursday.This decision not to show up, a clear message of contempt that Bannon's political fans will undoubtedly appreciate, could land him behind bars as the Dems are already pursuing criminal charges against the former Trump insider. The Jan. 6 committee has already set a vote for recommending criminal contempt charges. According to the AP, if the House votes to recommend the contempt charges against Bannon, the DoJ will likely decide to prosecute - though there's a chance it could pass. Bannon has - like many Trump insiders before him - cited executive privilege as his reason for ignoring the subpoena (although he wasn't working for the president at the time).On Thursday, the committee demanded Bannon turn over documents and testimony due to the fact that he was allegedly in touch with President Trump before the demonstration at the Capitol got out of hand.Bannon's lawyer said his client didn't appear at the hearing due at the insistence of President Trump.A second witness called for a deposition Thursday, former Defense Department official Kashyap Patel, also refused to appear, although Patel is still reportedly "engaging" with the committee, according to the AP's anonymous sourcces according to two people familiar with the confidential negotiations who were granted anonymity to discuss them. But Patel is still engaging with the committee, the people said. Members of the committee told the AP that they wouldn't stand by and tolerate Bannon's rebuke.“The Select Committee will not tolerate defiance of our subpoenas, so we must move forward with proceedings to refer Mr. Bannon for criminal contempt,” Thompson said in a statement.
UK police 'taking no further action' against Prince Andrew after review of abuse allegations -British authorities on Monday announced that they will not be taking any action against Prince Andrew, Duke of York, the second-oldest son of Queen Elizabeth II, following a review conducted after allegations of sexual abuse were made against him.In August, London's police commissioner, Cressida Dick, announced that the Metropolitan Police would be reviewing the case against Prince Andrew, who has been accused by Virginia Giuffre, an alleged victim of Jeffrey Epstein, of sexually abusing her when she was a minor.Giuffre filed a lawsuit against Andrew in August in New York, alleging that apart from sexual abuse, the prince also intentionally inflicted emotional distress on her.The Metropolitan Police said the “review has concluded and we are taking no further action,”according to The Associated Press.The police force said it would also not be taking action relating to allegations that Epstein associated Ghislaine Maxwell groomed and abused women in the U.K.A source close to the Duke told The Hill that "it comes as no surprise that the Met Police have confirmed that, after reviewed the sex assault claims against The Duke for a third time, they are taking no further action. Despite pressure from the media and claims of new evidence, the Met have concluded that the claims are not sufficient to warrant any further investigation. The Duke has always vigorously maintained his innocence and continues to do so."In September, lawyers for Giuffre said Andrew had been served with the lawsuit after London's High Court said it would ensure that the prince is served with the lawsuit. Lawyers had attempted to serve the lawsuit earlier by leaving it with security near Andrew's home, but his lawyers argued that it had not been properly served."The legal process has not yet been served but the High Court will now take steps to serve under the Convention unless service is arranged by agreement between the parties," the court said.
Mnuchin blocked Ivanka Trump's appointment to lead World Bank: report - President Donald Trump sought to name his daughter Ivanka to lead the World Bank in 2019, but Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin intervened to block the appointment, The Intercept reported Sunday. In January 2019, the physician and anthropologist Jim Yong Kim, who had led the World Bank since 2012, announced he would be stepping down from his role the following month, creating a frenzy to fill the coveted position.Kim's surprise departure presented Trump as president with the ability to reshape the leadership of the World Bank, as the international financial organization has traditionally been led by an American citizen.As the White House assembled a list of candidates, Ivanka Trump emerged as a favorite to her father, who told The Atlantic that she would have been an excellent choice because "she's very good with numbers."
The U.S. Banking System Is More Dangerous Today than in 1929, Thanks to the Fed’s Reg U and Swaps – Two Well-Kept Secrets from the Senate Banking Committee - Pam Martens - - Regulation U is a 1936 Federal Reserve rule, that is still in force today, that allows federally-insured, taxpayer backstopped commercial banks to make margin loans for speculating in stocks. Unlike 1936, however, Wall Street trading houses are today allowed to own their own federally-insured, taxpayer backstopped commercial banks. That has allowed a lot of mischief to occur in the making of margin loans for speculating in the stock market. .Following the 1929 stock market crash, 9,096 banks that were holding deposits for average Americans failed as a result of insolvency between 1930 and 1933. (See chart above.)Following a month-long run on the banks, Roosevelt declared a nationwide banking holiday that closed all banks in the United States. On March 9, 1933, Congress passed the Emergency Banking Act which allowed regulators to evaluate each bank before it was permitted to reopen. Thousands of banks were deemed insolvent and permanently closed.There was no federal deposit insurance on bank deposits at that time, meaning that depositors lost all of their money in many cases or were paid just pennies on the dollar.To restore the public’s confidence in the U.S. banking system, President Roosevelt signed into law the Banking Act of 1933, more popularly known as the Glass-Steagall Act after its authors Senator Carter Glass, a Democrat from Virginia, and House Rep Henry Steagall, a Democrat from Alabama. The legislation created federal deposit insurance for bank accounts for the first time in the U.S. while also banning these federally-insured banks from speculating in, or underwriting, stocks.This separation of insured banking from the casino culture of Wall Street was not controversial at the time. Years of Senate Banking hearings following the ’29 crash had informed the Congress of that era, as well as the public through bold newspaper headlines, that it was Wall Street speculators gambling with depositors’ money that had caused the stock market crash and insolvency of the banks.The Glass-Steagall Act protected the U.S. banking system for 66 years until its repeal during the Wall Street-friendly Bill Clinton administration in 1999. The momentum for its repeal came from the announcement in 1998 that Sandy Weill wanted to merge his trading firms, Salomon Brothers and Smith Barney (under the Travelers Group umbrella), with Citicorp, parent of the federally-insured Citibank commercial bank.Weill had a self-confessed personal motive for this merger, which created the so-called “universal bank,” Citigroup. Weill told his merger partner, John Reed of Citibank, that his motivation for the deal was: “We could be so rich,” according to Reed in an interview with Bill Moyers.
Fed’s supervisory approach should encourage bank innovation, Bowman says -The Federal Reserve is embarking on an initiative that will look at ways to modernize bank supervision as fintech innovation heats up and banking business models evolve, Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman said.The former community banker and Kansas state regulator said the central bank is conducting an internal review that will look at its existing supervisory practices to determine if its approaches need to change.Bowman's remarks earlier this week, prepared for a community banking conference, suggest the Fed is focused on ensuring that supervision evolves with rapid changes in the financial system. She also cited banks' response to competition from fintechs and increased use of data analytics in how products are delivered to consumers among the issues prompting the review.
Senate Banking Chair, Sherrod Brown, Gives Fed’s Quarles a Scathing Bon Voyage - Pam Martens - Yesterday was the last day that Randal Quarles served in the post as Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve. Senator Sherrod Brown, the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee that oversees the Federal Reserve, used the occasion to send a scorching letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell assessing Quarles’ performance in the job, which began on October 13, 2017. Brown wrote:“When Vice Chair Quarles was confirmed to his position, banking lobbyists cheered. Not only did he immediately set out a plan to shift post-crisis rules to benefitting industry interests over protecting working families, he dutifully continued his deregulatory efforts even as the economy was shaken by a global pandemic. I am deeply concerned about these efforts during a global economic crisis.” But it’s not just deregulation that has been a problem with Quarles and Powell at the helm of the Fed. The mega banks that Quarles was supposed to be supervising have grown exponentially more corrupt under this Vice Chair for Supervision. On September 16, 2019, the U.S. Department of Justice brought racketeering charges against three precious metals traders at JPMorgan Chase. It was the first time that Wall Street veterans could remember that traders of a major U.S. bank were charged under the RICO statute.One year later, on September 29, 2020, JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay criminal fines and admit to two felony counts of wire fraud for manipulating (spoofing) trading in the precious metals and U.S. Treasury markets. The charging document indicated that traders had engaged in “tens of thousands of instances of unlawful trading in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium…as well as thousands of instances of unlawful trading in U.S. Treasury futures contracts and in U.S. Treasury notes and bonds….”Those additional two felony counts brought JPMorgan Chase’s felony count to a total of five in the span of six years – all occurring under the tenure of Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon. Should the Federal Reserve have demanded that Dimon be removed from a leadership role at the bank? Not only should Quarles have demanded the removal of Dimon in 2020 but the Federal Reserve should have demanded his removal on March 15, 2013 when the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released a 300-page report on how Dimon had presided over the “London Whale” scandal. JPMorgan Chase is the largest federally-insured bank in the United States with more than $2 trillion in deposits. It is also the only U.S. bank with five felony counts; the only U.S. bank to have gambled in derivatives with depositors’ money and lost $6.2 billion; the only bank to have its precious metals trading desk labeled a racketeering enterprise by the U.S. Department of Justice; and the only U.S. bank that has allowed the same Chairman and CEO to continue to preside over this unprecedented crime spree. (See JPMorgan Chase’s rap sheet here.) Powell doesn’t seem to have a problem with Dimon. At a February 11, 2020 House Financial Services Committee hearing, Congresswoman Katie Porter held up a photo of Fed Chair Powell in black tie outside the mansion of billionaire Jeff Bezos, then CEO of Amazon. Porter said this: “Can you imagine how attending a lavish party at Jeff Bezos’ $23 million home, along with Jared and Ivanka and the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, might give off the sense to the public that you are not in fact immune from external pressures.” Both Quarles and Powell got rich at the Carlyle Group, a private equity fund with a string of bankruptcies and job losses. Both Quarles and Powell have millions of dollars managed by BlackRock in its iShares Exchange Traded Funds, according to their financial disclosure reports. But that conflict did not stop the Fed from giving a no-bid contract to BlackRock to manage its emergency corporate bond buying facilities, in which BlackRock was allowed to buy up its own ETFs.
Sidelining of Quarles complicates Fed's policymaking — With Gov. Randal Quarles no longer serving as the Federal Reserve Board's head of bank supervision, regulatory matters have been effectively sidelined until the Biden administration fills key leadership posts at the central bank, experts say.In addition to his role as a Fed governor, Quarles was confirmed by the Senate in 2017 to the newly created post of vice chair for supervision, but his term ended Wednesday and the administration has yet to name a successor.That could set up gridlock on bank regulatory matters. Up to now, Quarles chaired the Fed's powerful internal committee dealing with supervision, of which Govs. Lael Brainard and Michelle Bowman are also members. But a Fed spokesperson said earlier this week that the committee will operate without a chair temporarily.
Is modernizing National Bank Act the answer to fintech charter woes? — For years, federal regulators have struggled to set parameters for the inclusion of fintechs in the banking system. Some experts say the clearest-cut solution may be to revamp the National Bank Act.Policymakers looking to create specialized charters for nonbanks have shied away from the legislative process. But the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's special-purpose fintech charter, for example, which would bestow banking powers without the need to accept deposits, has been slowed by legal disputes.Most recently, the Biden administration is reportedly exploring the creation of a specialized charter for stablecoin issuers. But observers say that idea could similarly be held up by years of litigation unless Congress acted more decisively to authorize it.
Citigroup CEO defends executive bonuses tied to compliance fixes --Citigroup executives on Thursday found themselves in a familiar spot: defending their decisions about where to spend money and why, and explaining how those moves would ultimately improve shareholder returns.One year after leaders were hammered by analysts about how much it would cost to fix Citi’s latest risk management and internal control problems, new questions arose during the company’s third-quarter earnings call about a recently disclosed plan to pay bonuses to some of the top managers charged with fixing those shortcomings.Analysts questioned why the new plan does not outline specific goals, why it is not part of existing incentive programs and whether the dollars should instead go toward share buybacks.
Wells Fargo's latest regulatory stumble puts CEO in hot seat --Wells Fargo is facing a fresh round of questions about its ongoing regulatory troubles in the wake of a recent setback that fostered doubts about the bank’s progress in satisfying its regulators.During the bank’s third-quarter earnings call, analysts peppered CEO Charlie Scharf with queries about how quickly the bank may resolve regulatory actions over past consumer abuses. In September, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency hit Wells with a new $250 million penalty, citing continued problems in its home lending unit and violations of a 2018 consent order.
SEC rule meant to protect retail investors from pump-and-dump schemes ended up giving an edge to professionals -A new SEC rule created to protect investors from pump-and-dump schemes has had the unintended consequence of giving professional investors an edge over individual investors since it went into effect at the end of September.As most pump-and-dump operations take advantage of illiquid, over-the-counter securities that don't provide current financial information, the rule sought to prevent brokers from providing price quotations on securities that don't have up-to-date financials.Technological advancements related to the rule change "enable us to require that information in the OTC market be more timely, enabling investors to make better informed investment decisions, and reducing fraud in these markets where retail presence is significant and, unfortunately, pump-and-dump and other frauds are too common," former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton said last year.Of the more than 12,000 securities that trade on the OTC Markets, more than 2,000 of them are currently subject to the price-quotation limitation.But while the rule change might make it harder for schemers to inflate stock prices with false or misleading information and then dump shares on unwitting investors, it also makes it nearly impossible for retail investors to buy OTC securities of profitable, dividend-paying businesses that don't post updated financials.That has led to a drop in demand for many OTC securities, resulting in sharp declines in stock prices. Retail investors that hold an OTC stock that now falls under the new SEC rule are only left with the option of selling their security, not buying more.One OTC security that saw a big drop after the rule went into effect was Canandaigua National, an upstate New York community bank that is profitable and offers a 4% dividend yield. The stock, which barely traded hands even before the rule change, saw its price fall 27% virtually over night. "We find ourselves in a situation where there are real opportunities sitting in front of us, but we can't take advantage of them!" retired investor Dave Wetzel told The Wall Street Journal. But professional investors can still buy OTC stocks that fall under the SEC rule, which is meant to protect individual investors who may have access to less information.
Lawmakers clash over government's role in preserving cash --Despite the rapid advancement of digital payments, many people still rely on cash, leading to partisan disputes over the best way to ensure consumers who need paper bills can avoid being shut out of the financial system. "We have a lot of work to do on this issue, but we can't take a step back by removing access to cash," said Rep. Nikema Williams, D-Ga., during a House Financial Services Committee hearing Thursday on the underbanked and cash access called "Cashed Out: How a Cashless Economy Impacts Disadvantaged Communities and Peoples." The hearing's testimony fell largely along partisan lines, with Democrats advocating government action to either require businesses to accept cash or to create a direct relationship between consumers and the Federal Reserve to ensure universal access to the banking system. Republicans and conservative witnesses pushed for fintech competition and an easier route for private companies that provide digital financial services to receive banking licenses.
IMF warns of the danger to the financial system from 'disappearing' crypto coins and the instability of stablecoins - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning about the growing risks in the expanding cryptocurrency space, including fraud, excess speculation and potential "runs" on seemingly more stable assets, in a report on Tuesday.Crypto in all its forms, such as digital coins like bitcoin and stablecoins like the USDC, has been spreading around the globe. Nearly half of the world's central banks have looked into creating their own digital currencies, which would be centralized and be more secure than pure cryptocurrencies."Investor protection risks loom large for crypto assets and decentralized finance," the report said in the executive summary document.More than 16,000 tokens have been listed on various exchanges like Coinbase, Binance and Kraken over time, but only around 9,000 exist today, the report said. Some of these tokens were purely speculative and impacted solely by social media trends."Investors are - likely to face losses from tokens ceasing to exist-something that is less common in regulated securities markets," the IMF said.Some countries such as Argentina, Mexico and Thailand have stopped exchanges from offering tokens that display particular characteristics, the report said. Regulators around the world have stepped up their oversight of the crypto market, while some commercial banks have stopped their customers from transferring money to certain crypto exchanges.China's recent banning of all crypto mining and trading is the harshest example so far of the kind of pressure the sector can come under.Another factor the IMF emphasized was stablecoins, which are pegged to an underlying asset such as cash or bonds, were vulnerable to volatility and investor runs.A few months ago, investors saw the value of a decentralized finance token called titan, which was part of an algorithmic stablecoin project from Iron Finance, drop in hours from around $60 to a tiny fraction of a cent. Whale accounts unloaded their shares and triggered the equivalent of a bank run, as smaller traders rushed to recoup their money. The meltdown even caught billionaire Mark Cuban off guard. "I got hit like everyone else," he tweetedat the time."An investor run in one country can also lead to cross-border spillovers if large global crypto exchanges are involved. The concentrated ownership of stablecoins by market makers could also trigger wider contagion," the report said.Stablecoins have also come under fire on account of the composition of their reserves - the most prominent so far is the tether token, which claimed to be fully backed by US dollars, but is largely backed by short-term corporate debt.The IMF recommended countries collaborate to address the technological, legal, regulatory, and supervisory challenges that crypto assets can bring.
PNC’s chief executive warns of threat from stablecoins --Even as PNC Financial Services Group prepares to enable the trading of cryptocurrencies through its mobile app, CEO Bill Demchak warned Friday about various threats associated with stablecoins.In September, the $553.5 billion-asset company revealed that it was waiting for federal agencies to rule on how banks can handle cryptocurrency trading. The opportunity could blossom into a sizable source of fee income for banks that are still waiting for a rebound in loan growth and interest income.Stablecoins, which are often pegged to the U.S. dollar, have drawn particular attention from regulators because of their explosion in popularity. These assets are used by crypto traders to transfer the value of their more speculative holdings instantly on exchanges without cashing out into hard dollars. Demchak said on a call with analysts Friday that he’s wary about their reliability.
Credit unions want to get into crypto, but worry about regulatory roadblocks | Credit Union Journal -- Visions Federal Credit Union wants to offer cryptocurrency services, but is wary of making the leap without regulatory guidance from the National Credit Union Administration.“Having affirmation from [the] NCUA as to what is permissible will provide us the guidance to engage in these new opportunities,” said Cynthia Schroeder, senior vice president and chief information and innovation officer at the $5.4 billion-asset Visions.Visions, of Endicott, New York, is building its cryptocurrency strategy as the NCUA develops rules for cryptocurrency and its underlying blockchain technology. These rules can't come soon enough for the credit union. Other types of financial institutions have defined regulations already in place, but there is still time for credit unions to catch up. Visions is participating in a request-for-information process the NCUA began in July.
Deposit surge puts credit unions in regulatory bind --Consumers have been socking away much more in savings since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and that is putting pressure on credit unions’ ability to maintain capital at required levels. Total U.S. shares — deposits that also convey partial ownership in the credit union — rose 14.8% year over year to $1.71 trillion in the second quarter of 2021, according to data from the National Credit Union Administration. Those shares ideally are used to fund loans. Since loan demand is lagging, credit unions often have to put excess deposits into lower-yielding investments including federal funds, said Tim Scholten, president of the credit union and community bank consultancy Visible Progress.
Industry scrambles to prepare for CFPB debt collection rules -Banks, credit card companies and debt collectors pushed for an overhaul of federal debt collection rules, and they are poised to reap the benefits of unlimited contact with consumers by email and text messages.But with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's rules set to take effect Nov. 30, many creditors and collectors are scrambling to make changes that require a high degree of coordination with each other.Though the rules do not apply specifically to banks and other lenders seeking to collect debts, they do require technology changes and the sharing of information in order for third-party debt collectors to take advantage of certain "safe harbors" that will protect them from legal liability.
Freddie Mac to strengthen affordable housing program, investing more in low down payment mortgages -- Mortgage giant Freddie Mac plans to offer at least $3 billion in single-family affordable housing bonds in an effort to "support affordable homeownership and serve historically underserved markets," according to a press release. The initiative began in early October with $285 million in mortgage-backed securities for loans purchased through the Home Possible mortgage program, the company said. These mortgages allow low-income borrowers to buy a home for as little as 3% down.In addition to addressing issues of housing inequality by offering affordable housing options, the program "is also intended to give investors a vehicle to invest in underserved communities," according to Freddie Mac CEO Michael DeVito. Affording a mortgage down payment is the leading barrier to homeownership for potential homebuyers, according to Freddie Mac. But taking out a mortgage with low or no down payment comes with its downsides.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.62%" - Note: This is as of October 3rd. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.62%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 27 basis points from 2.89% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.62% as of October 3, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.3 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 17 basis points to 1.21%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 41 basis points to 2.94%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 35 basis points to 6.42%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 37 basis points relative to the prior week to 2.82%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 24 basis points to 2.69%. “Many borrowers reached the expiration of their forbearance term as we entered October. The pace of exits climbed to the fastest pace in over a year, and the share of loans in forbearance declined at the fastest rate since last October, dropping by 27 basis points. The decline was the largest for Ginnie Mae and portfolio/PLS loans,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Payment performance has remained steady for those who have exited forbearance and into a workout since 2020, with more than 85% of those borrowers current as of October. It also continues to be striking that so many homeowners in forbearance have continued to make their payments. Almost 16 percent of borrowers in forbearance as of October 3rd were current.” “Job growth was weaker than expected in September, reflecting the challenges from the Delta variant, ongoing supply-chain issues, and the resulting slowdowns in workplace and school re openings. However, the drop in the unemployment rate, rising wages, and abundant job openings will continue to help support the housing market, including helping borrowers exit forbearance successfully in the weeks ahead.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.04% to 0.05%."
Another Week of Significant Forbearance Declines -As expected, we saw another significant drop in the number of active forbearances this week, as the first wave of final plan expirations continues.According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, active plans fell by another 10%, for an overall reduction of 143,000 since last Tuesday – on top of last week’s 177,000 (-11%) drop.Once again, declines were seen across all investor classes, led by an 88,000 (-19%) plan drop among loans held in bank portfolios and private label securities. The number of homeowners in GSE and FHA/VA loans in forbearance saw matching 6% declines, for 22,000 and 33,000 reductions respectively. As of October 12, 1.25 million mortgage holders remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, representing 2.4% of all active mortgages, including 1.3% of GSE, 4% of FHA/VA and 3% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans.More than 450,000 homeowners have exited their forbearance plans over the past two weeks alone. With some 47,000 September month-end expirations still left to process and another 329K scheduled for review for extension or removal in October, the potential for further, substantial declines will continue into early November.
Homeowners exiting mortgage forbearance at fastest pace in the past year, data shows - The number of mortgages in active forbearance plans plummeted at the beginning of October, marking the largest weekly decline in the last 12 months, according to new data from Black Knight. This comes as a large number of forbearance plans were either marked for review or set for final expiration in September. The number of active forbearance plans dropped by 177,000 during the first week of October, Black Knight’s weekly forbearance report showed. This was led by a drop of 84,000 in FHA and VA loans, 50,000 among GSE loans — or loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — and 43,000 in privately backed loans. If your forbearance plan ended but you're struggling to resume your mortgage payment, a mortgage refinance could be right for you. By reducing your interest rate, you could save hundreds on your monthly payment. While the number of forbearances is dropping, 1.39 million homeowners, or 2.6% of all active mortgage holders, remain in mortgage forbearance, Black Knight’s data showed. But 180,000 of these forbearances had end review dates in September, and could soon exit in the coming weeks. Another 420,000 plans are also scheduled to be reviewed for extension or expire in October.But data shows that foreclosure activity is also increasing after the end of the latest foreclosure moratorium. Therefore, some plans could be exiting forbearance because their period has expired, rather than being financially ready to resume payments. Foreclosure filings increased 24% from August to September, and 102% annually in September, according to the latest foreclosure report from ATTOM data solutions. "So far the government and the mortgage industry have worked together to do an extraordinary job of preventing millions of unnecessary foreclosures using the foreclosure moratorium and mortgage forbearance program," Rick Sharga, executive vice president at RealtyTrac, an ATTOM company, said. "But there are hundreds of thousands of borrowers scheduled to exit forbearance in the next two months, and it’s possible that we might see a higher percentage of those borrowers default on their loans."
Mortgage Rates Highest in 6 Months; Refinance Activity Will Slow --Today, in the Newsletter: Mortgage Rates Highest in 6 Months. Mortgage News Daily reports that the most prevalent 30 year fixed rate is now at 3.17% for top tier scenarios. However, with the ten year yield over 1.6%, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 3.4% - so mortgage rates might move a little higher. On Friday, Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily wrote: Highest Rates in Months Despite Weak Jobs ReportHis article included this graph that shows ten year yield had been declining prior to the pandemic. Graham notes that rates increased early this year based on optimism around the vaccines and more fiscal spending. The decrease in rates mid-year was likely due to the delta variant and the unvaccinated. With COVID case rates falling again, interest rates are increasing.In January 2020 (pre-pandemic), the ten year yield was around 1.75% and 30 year mortgage rates were at about 3.6%, and it wouldn’t be surprising to return to those levels as COVID cases decline further (however we will probably see another COVID wave over the Winter). The general rule of thumb is refinance activity will be strong if current mortgage rates are 50bps lower than the maximum of the previous year (this is just a general rule - but it works pretty well).The following graph shows the MBA Refinance Index (Blue) and the change in mortgage rates (Red). The change is calculated as Maximum in Previous Year minus the current rate). When the red line is above 0.5% (more than 50bps decline in mortgage rates), then refinance activity generally picks up.Currently the maximum for the last year is 3.18%, and with current rates (today) at 3.17%, refinance activity will probably decline significantly (unless mortgage rates decline again).
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 8, 2021... The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates reached their highest level since June 2021, but application activity changed little this week. An increase in home purchase applications offset a slight decline in refinances,” . “The increase in purchase applications was welcome news, but was primarily driven by a 2 percent gain in conventional purchase applications, which kept the average loan size elevated.”, “The 30-year fixed rate reached 3.18 percent last week and has risen 15 basis points over the past month, resulting in an 11 percent drop in refinance applications during this time. Government refinance applications fell over 3 percent last week, driven by a decline in FHA refinances and an 8-basis point increase in the average FHA mortgage rate. We continue to expect weakening refinance activity as rates move higher and borrowers see less of a rate incentive.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.18 percent from 3.14 percent, with points increasing to 0.37 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With low rates, the index remains elevated - but the recent bump in rates has slowed activity.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index
Will House Prices Increase "a further 16% by the end of 2022"? - Bill McBride - Yesterday, Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker wrote a research note forecasting US house prices would increase a further 16% by the end of 2022: The Housing Shortage: Prices, Rents, and Deregulation. This caused quite a stir on twitter. Here is a brief excerpt from the note: Of all the shortages afflicting the US economy, the housing shortage might last the longest. Earlier this year, we argued that constrained supply and sustainably robust demand would keep the US housing market very tight, pushing up home prices and rents sharply. The boom since then has surpassed even our lofty expectations, with home prices now up 20% over the last year. …The supply-demand picture that has been the basis for our call for a multi-year boom in home prices remains intact. Housing inventories remain historically tight, while homes remain relatively affordable despite the recent price increases, and surveys of home buying intentions remain at healthy levels. Our model now projects that home prices will grow a further 16% by the end of 2022.First, this is a projection for the end of next year. The most recent Case-Shiller report was for July, so this projection is for 17 months. This forecast is for an average of about 0.9% per month, well below the 1.5% per month average over the last year.Here is what the forecast would look like: The Goldman forecast is based on low housing inventories and continuing strong demand. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac put out frequent economic forecast, including for house prices. They are forecasting the FHFA price index, as opposed to Case-Shiller, but the indexes are fairly close. Fannie Mae is currently forecasting house price growth will slow over the next several months, and will increase 5.1% in 2022 (Q4 over Q4). Freddie Mac is forecasting 5.3% growth in 2022. These forecast are for about 9% over the next 17 months - just over half the Goldman Sachs forecast. However, these forecasts expected a fairly sharp slowdown in price increases in Q3 and Q4 2021, and that hasn’t happened yet A far less optimistic forecast comes from CoreLogic:Home price gains are projected to slow to a 2.2% increase by August 2022, as ongoing affordability challenges deter some potential buyers.This model seems way too pessimistic. Conclusion: The Goldman Sachs forecast is based on two key factors: Housing inventories remaining “historically tight”, and Homes remaining “relatively affordable”. In addition, the Goldman Sachs forecast is for 17 months. If prices increase at 1.5% per month for the rest of 2021 (the same pace as in July), the Goldman forecast would be for about 7.7% in 2022 - not that far above other forecasts. Inventories are currently very tight, although we are seeing some divergence in markets across the country recently. On “affordability”, this is based on house prices and mortgage rates. Mortgage rateshave been increasing, and higher mortgage rates, combined with higher house prices, is making houses less “affordable”. Demand is driven by household formation. However data on household formation is released with a significant lag. Since both house prices and rents are rising rapidly, there is clearly strong household formation right now (even though population growth is slow). I discussed this in Household Formation Drives Housing Demand. Tight inventories, relatively low mortgage rates, and favorable demographics suggest further price increases ahead. But “a further 16% by the end of 2022” seems high.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 9.6% Compared to Same Week in 2019 - Note: Since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, CoStar is comparing to 2019.From CoStar: STR: Columbus Day Weekend Extends US Hotel Summer Performance: Lifted by the long Columbus Day weekend, U.S. hotel performance rose to a level similar to late summer, according to STR‘s latest data through October 9. October 3-9, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 63.9% (-9.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$134.63 (+2.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$86.02 (-7.4%)
*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). .The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019.Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel. However, this year, so far, business travel has been lighter than leisure travel in 2021.
Reis: Office and Mall Vacancy Rates Decreased Slightly in Q3 - Reis reported the office vacancy rate was at 18.2% in Q3, down from 18.5% in Q2, and up from 17.4% in Q3 2020. The previous quarter (back in Q2) saw the highest vacancy rate for offices since the early '90s (following the S&L crisis).The first graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual). The office vacancy rate was elevated prior to the pandemic, and moved up during the pandemic. Reis also reported that office effective rents increased slightly in Q3; this followed five consecutive quarter with declining rents. The second graph shows the regional and strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.4% in Q3, down from 10.5% in Q2, and unchanged from 10.4% in Q3 2020. For Regional malls, the vacancy rate was 11.2% in Q3, down from 11.5% in Q2, and up from 10.1% in Q3 2020. Reis reported that mall effective rents increased slightly in Q3, after stabilizing in Q2. This followed five consecutive quarters will declining rents.
Manhattan’s Empty Storefronts Multiply With Workers Staying Home - The number of empty storefronts is surging in midtown Manhattan, where an absence of tourists and office workers has hammered the retail industry during the pandemic. Nearly 30% of 311 storefronts were vacant in the retail corridors near Grand Central and Midtown East as of the end of September, roughly double the historical rate, according to a report Thursday from the Real Estate Board of New York.
Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in September -- On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.7% from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 13.9 percent from September 2020. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $625.4 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month, and 13.9 percent above September 2020. ... The July 2021 to August 2021 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent to up 0.9 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.6% in September. The stimulus checks boosted retail sales significantly in March and April.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 12.1% on a YoY basis.Sales in September were above expectations, and sales in July and August were revised up.
Retail sales rose in September, defying inflation and supply woes - Retail sales rose in September despite rising prices and supply shortages, according to data released Friday by the Census Bureau. Sales by retailers, including restaurants and bars, not adjusted for inflation totaled $625.4 billion in September, rising 0.7 percent from August’s revised total of $620.9 billion. The increase defied the expectations of economists, who projected sales to decline as supply chain snarls continue to raise prices. “Consumers returned to in-person with back-to-school shopping in September after the Delta variant caused them to pull back in August. Delays to shipping items bought online are motivating a return to in-person shopping,” wrote Yelena Maleyev, economist at Grant Thornton, in a Friday analysis. Stores that sell sports equipment, musical instruments, books and hobby products saw the biggest increase in September, with sales rising 3.7 percent last month after falling 3.3 percent in August. Superstores and other general merchandise sellers saw a 2 percent increase in sales last month, while online retail sales rose 0.6 percent after a sharp 5.7 percent-jump in August. Only electronics and appliance stores and health and personal care stores saw sales fall last month. Economists expected auto sales to continue to fall sharply as backlogs and chip shortages drastically reduced the supply of new cars and trucks on the market. While sales actually ticked higher by 0.5 percent, they fell when adjusted for inflation, Maleyev wrote. “We are emerging from the Delta-induced lull in the third quarter but now are facing much higher inflation and goods shortages, which will constrain spending for the fourth quarter,” Maleyev wrote. “Supply chain disruptions will not be resolved quickly as retailers scramble to stock up for Christmas.” Ports, transportation companies, factories and suppliers have struggled for months to meet growing demand unleashed by progress against the pandemic. While consumer spending has rebounded swiftly from the onset of COVID-19, the supply chain has yet to recover from layoffs and shutdowns from earlier in the pandemic and have faced more grueling setbacks thanks to the delta variant. The emergence of the delta surge in late July also shifted consumer spending in the U.S. away from services that had been limited by health concerns and back toward goods purchases popular amid shutdowns. “Stepping back from the month-to-month noise, it's important to appreciate here that we positively want spending on goods to weaken, relative to services, because the current situation ... is a deeply abnormal consequence of the pandemic,”
Nearly 40% of Americans seeing ‘serious financial problems’ in past few months - Nearly 40 percent of Americans say they’ve experienced serious financial problems over the past few months and almost 70 percent are worried about their children falling behind in school, according to a new national poll.After growing optimism over the summer that the worst of the pandemic had passed, the resurgence of the virus with the ultra-contagious Delta variant has brought the march back to normal to a halt in some cases — especially when it comes to households struggling with finances.The reports of economic struggles come even as 67 percent of households surveyed said they’d received financial help from the government in the past few months.And it’s not just pain in the pocketbook: People surveyed said they also worried about their children falling behind in school after a year of lockdown and a stop-and-start reopening of schools in some cases. A full 69 percent of households with children in grades K-12 last year report their children fell behind in learning because of the coronavirus. Of those, 36 percent said their children fell behind “a lot.” Feelings haven’t brightened for this school year: Of the households that said their children fell behind last year, 70 percent say it will be difficult for their children to catch up on what they missed, according to the poll.The poll, conducted by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in conjunction with NPR and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, surveyed 3,616 US adults from Aug. 2 to Sept. 7.“While Americans have widely received help from the government during the COVID-19 outbreak, millions are still having very serious problems with their finances, health care, and their children’s education,” said Robert J. Blendon, co-director of the survey and a Harvard public health professor.Meanwhile, not all households report they’ve felt serious pain: Among those with annual household incomes under $50,000, 59 percent said they’d faced serious financial problems. The figure falls to 18 percent when it comes to households with incomes over $50,000, according to the survey.
Pandemic Wiped Out Entire Savings Of 20% Of US Households - Over the weekend, we showed a staggering wealth distribution statistic cementing the US status as a banana republic: according to Fed data which breaks down the distribution of wealth according to income quintile (or 20% bucket) the middle 60% of US households by income saw their combined assets drop from 26.7% to 26.6% of national wealth as of June, the lowest in Federal Reserve data, while for the first time the super rich had a bigger share, at 27%.While especially true for the top 1%, it is all the rich that have benefited from the Fed's generous liquidity pump at the expense of the extinction of the US middle class - as the next chart shows, over the past 30 years, 10 percentage points of American wealth has shifted to the top 20% of earners, who now hold 70% of the total. The bottom 80% are left with less than 30%.But while we have extensively discussed the destructive impact of the Fed on the middle class - while enriching the top 1% - a view espoused recently by Stan Druckenmiller who in May called the Fed the single "greatest engine of wealth inequality" in history (to which we would also add the end of the gold standard under Nixon), some have asked what about the sub-middle class? After all one can argue (correctly) that the swing voter in the US is not in the top 1%, but rather in the bottom 50%.Well, as we previously pointed out, the bottom 50% own just 2% of all net worth, or a paltry $2.8 trillion. What is even more sad is that the wealth of the bottom 50% is virtually unchanged since 2006, while the net worth of the Top 1% has risen by 132% from $17.9 trillion to $41.5 trillion.But to get a sense of just how precarious the everyday existence of the lower classes is, consider the following stunning fact: Bloomberg reports that according to a poll of 3,616 adults aged 18 and older from NPR, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health released on Tuesday, for many Americans the Covid lockdowns - with nowhere to go and nothing to do - was a time to save. But for almost 20% of U.S. households, the pandemic wiped out their entire financial cushion. The share of respondents who said they lost all their savings jumped to 30% for those making less than $50,000 a year, the poll found. Black and Latino households were also harder hit.
Consumer prices rise more than expected as energy costs surge - Consumer prices increased slightly more than expected in September as food and energy price rises offset declines in used cars, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The consumer price index for all items rose 0.4% for the month, compared with the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate. On a year-over-year basis, prices increased 5.4% versus the estimate for 5.3% and the highest since January 1991. However, excluding volatile food and energy prices, the CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 4% year over year, against respective estimates for 0.3% and 4%. Gasoline prices rose another 1.2% for the month, bringing the annual increase to 42.1%. Fuel oil shot up 3.9%, for a 42.6% year over year surge. Food prices also showed notable gains for the month, with food at home rising 1.2%. Meat prices rose 3.3% just in September and increased 12.6% year over year. "Food and energy are more variable, but that's where the problem is," "Hopefully, we start solving our supply shortage problem. But when the dust settles, inflation is not going back to zero to 2 [percent] where it was for the last decade." Used car prices, which have been at the center of much of the inflation pressures in recent months, fell 0.7% for the month, pulling the 12-month increase down to 24.4%. However, the continued rise in prices even with the drop in vehicle costs could lend credence to the notion that inflation is more persistent than policymakers think. Airline fares tumbled 6.4% for the month after falling 9.1% in July. Shelter prices, which make up about a third of the CPI, increased 0.4% for the month and are up 3.2% for the 12-month period. Owners' equivalent rent or how much an owner of a property would have to pay to rent it, increased 0.4% as well, its largest monthly gain since June 2006. "This might just be an overshoot after a couple of relatively modest increases, but we can't rule out the idea that the fundamentals — rapid house price gains, more aggressive landlord pricing, low inventory, and faster wage growth — are pushing up the trend," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Apparel prices also declined 1.1% in September while transportation services dropped 0.5%. Both sectors have been rising consistently and still showed respective annual gains of 3.4% and 4.4%. Federal Reserve officials have called the current inflation run "transitory," and attribute it largely to supply chain and demand issues that they expect to subside in the months ahead. However, that view has been receiving substantial pushback lately. "This is one more data point to say, 'Fed, your trying to convince us that inflation is transitory is just not believable,'" Doll said. "If you know anybody who doesn't have to live somewhere, doesn't eat any food and doesn't use energy, then inflation is maybe not a particular problem. But come on." On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that the Fed and its global peers should be preparing contingency plans should inflation prove persistent. That would mean raising interest rates sooner than expected to control the price gains. Later in the day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC that he thinks the Fed should be more aggressive in withdrawing its economic support, and in particular its monthly bond purchases, should inflation prove a problem and require rate hikes next year. Also on Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the factors that have pushed inflation higher "will not be brief." JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday took the transitory side of the argument, saying that the current conditions will clear up and inflation won't be a factor in 2022.
BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in September, Core CPI increased 0.2% --From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.The indexes for food and shelter rose in September and together contributed more than half of the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase. The index for food rose 0.9 percent, with the index for food at home increasing 1.2 percent. The energy index increased 1.3 percent, with the gasoline index rising 1.2 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September, after increasing 0.1 percent in August. Along with the index for shelter, the indexes for new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance also rose in September. The indexes for airline fares, apparel, and used cars and trucks all declined over the month.The all items index rose 5.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, compared to a 5.3-percent rise for the period ending August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, the same increase as the period ending August. The energy index rose 24.8 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index increased 4.6 percent over that period.CPI was above expectations, and core CPI was below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
Continuing accelerated consumer inflation points to sharp slowdown, but no recession imminent- Inflation, along with the expiration of the emergency pandemic payments, is one of the two big threats to this expansion. This morning’s report on consumer inflation for September, at 0.4%, was certainly elevated compared with its typical pre-pandemic reading of 0.2%/month, but on the other hand was the third month in a row of sharp deceleration from springtime, during which inflation averaged 0.8%/month. Typically inflation has not been a concern unless inflation ex-gas (red) has been in excess of 3.0%. YoY it is now 4.1%, as it has been for 2 of the 3 prior months. Meanwhile YoY total inflation (blue) is 5.4%, slightly higher than the last 3 months: Just as importantly, one of the traditional “real” harbingers of a recession has been wages (more broadly, household income) failing to keep pace with inflation: Since April, on a YoY basis wages had failed to keep pace with inflation. In September, they eked out a 0.1% gain. In Absolute terms real wages have been more or less flat for over a year: This does not necessarily portend a recession, but it is certainly consistent with a sharp slowdown. Taking a somewhat more granular look at inflation, housing (shelter) is over 1/3 of the entire index, and reflects households’ biggest monthly expense. The bad news is that on a monthly basis both inflation in shelter (blue in the graph below) and rent increases (red), which had been within their normal ranges in August, are now both running hot (particularly with the expiration of the eviction moratorium): This has caused the YoY indexes to also turn up: This will bleed over into the general shelter inflation index, which has already been telegraphed for many months by price increases as measured by the FHFA and Case-Shiller Indexes. Turning to motor vehicles, new car prices (red) continued to increase at an elevated pace in September, while used car prices (blue) hit a wall in July and have decreased for two month is a row since then: On a YoY basis, used car prices, which had been up over 40%, are now up “only” 24%, while new car prices are now up nearly 10%: Finally, although I won’t bother with a graph, there have been renewed gas price pressures in the past several weeks, with prices up about $.10/gallon in that time. What is the conclusion from all of this? First of all, price pressures in these very important sectors of the consumer economy - housing, vehicles, and gas - are constraints going forward into 2022. As I wrote in connection with last month’s report, heightened inflation has gone on long enough now that I expect some damage to show up in consumer spending. It hasn’t yet, probably because in the aggregate personal savings is up over 20% since just before the pandemic began. That’s quite a cushion! Additionally, “real” wage earnings have generally kept pace with inflation, as opposed to declining, so that suggests that consumers can maintain at least a steady level of “real” spending - and it is spending that drives production and jobs. Secondly, there has been a real deceleration in inflation between the second quarter, during which consumer prices increased at an 8.4% annualized pace (red, monthly right scale vs. YoY, blue, left scale), and the third quarter, during which they increased at a 6.6% annualized pace: I expect inflation in both wages and consumer prices to decelerate further from here, with a very important caveat that inflation in rents is a wild card. To me this adds up to a sharp slowdown in the economy, but not enough evidence at this point - certainly not in the long or short leading indicators - to suggest a recession in the immediate future. Visit website
CPI Inflation in September --Menzie Chinn - Headline slightly above Bloomberg consensus (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and core at consensus (0.4%), but month-on-month inflation rates are down relative to peaks earlier in the year. Re-opening inflation rates are decreasing in importance, as energy rises. The inflation is becoming more broad-based. Figure 1: Month-on-month annualized inflation from CPI-all urban (blue), from personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator (black), chained CPI seasonally adjusted (brown), sticky price CPI (green), and 16% trimmed mean CPI (red). Chained CPI inflation seasonally adjusted by author. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.Note that the trimmed CPI inflation rates blipped upward signaling the inflation pressure was more broad based than in recent months.The sticky price inflation rate also rose, indicating that less frequently changed prices are also moving.Core inflation, also m/m: Figure 2: Month-on-month annualized inflation from CPI-all urban (blue), from personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator (black), chained CPI seasonally adjusted (brown), and sticky price CPI (green). Chained CPI inflation seasonally adjusted by author. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.Similar patterns pertain for core prices. So, with energy prices likely to be elevated (especially natural gas) and for food, it’s notable that core inflation (m/m) is up.The m/m inflation can’t be attributed to re-opening pressures cited for previous months, as shown in CEA’s figure below: Source: CEA.Inflation has persisted a bit more than anticipated earlier, as supply chain disruptions have pushed up prices. That being said, it’s important to remember when you hear that inflation has hit a 13 year high that characterization applies to the year-on-year comparison. Shorter horizons (like m/m) or 2 year horizon (to avoid base effects) yield different perspectives.Figure 3: CPI inflation rate, month-on-month (blue), quarter-on-quarter (tan), year-on-year (green), and 12 month growth rate (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.Finally, something that has been of concern is the housing component of the CPI. Inflation in owner occupied equivalent rent, and rent of primary residence has risen, and is likely to continue to rise, given how the indices are constructed (the CPI rent component has been lagging measures like Zillow’s rent index).Figure 4: Rent of primary resident component of CPI (purple) and owner occupied equivalent rent (teal), both m/m annualized. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER and author’s calculations.OER and rent constitute about 30% of the total weights in the CPI.Finally, it’s important to recall that the Fed targets average PCE inflation. PCE inflation is about 0.43 percentage points below CPI inflation from 2000 (both pre-pandemic and inclusive).
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI and Trimmed-mean CPI both increased 0.5% in September - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also increased 0.5% in September. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for September here. "Fuel oil and other fuels" were up 44% annualized. Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up 5.1% annualized in September. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.8%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.5%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 4.0%. Core PCE is for August and increased 3.6% year-over-year.
Cost of Living Adjustment increases 5.9% in 2022, Contribution Base increased to $147,000 -- With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2022. From Social Security: Social Security Announces 5.9 Percent Benefit Increase for 2022: Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for approximately 70 million Americans will increase 5.9 percent in 2022, the Social Security Administration announced today.The 5.9 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will begin with benefits payable to more than 64 million Social Security beneficiaries in January 2022. Increased payments to approximately 8 million SSI beneficiaries will begin on December 30, 2021. (Note: some people receive both Social Security and SSI benefits). The Social Security Act ties the annual COLA to the increase in the Consumer Price Index as determined by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.Some other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages. Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) will increase to $147,000 from $142,800.Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is a discussion from Social Security on the current calculation (5.9% increase) and a list of previous Cost-of-Living Adjustments. The contribution and benefit base will be $147,000 in 2022.The National Average Wage Index increased to $55,628.60 in 2020, up 2.83% from $54,099.99 in 2019 (used to calculate contribution base).
If You Are Worrying About Inflation Eroding Wages… Menzie Chinn - So far, the lower paid are seeing the biggest gains… Figure 1: Real average hourly earnings in private nonfarm payroll employment (black), in manufacturing (red), and in leisure and hospitality (teal), CPI deflated, in logs 2020M02=0.All series pertain to production/non-supervisory workers. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Sources: BLS via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.Real wages are all higher than at the last NBER peak. Leisure and hospitality real wages are noticeably higher, but are still only 2.9% higher than the 2014-19 trendline.
Producer Price Inflation Hits New Record High, Pricing Pressures Near '70s Peak -After CPI's "transitory"-narrative-busting rebound, analysts expected Producer Prices to accelerate even further into record territory and it did - jumping 0.5% MoM to a new record 8.6% YoY. Bothe prints were modestly below the expected levels (+0.6% MoM and +8.7% YoY respectively)... Core PPI also rose but less than expected. However, on a year over year basis, it was still a series high... Goods PPI dominated the surge in prices (40 percent of the broad-based advance can be attributed to a 2.8-percent jump in prices for final demand energy) while Services PPI rose only modestly (helped by a contraction in prices for transportation and storage)... More worrying is the pipeline for PPI is still signaling far more pain ahead... PPI Final Demand has a ways to go: Intermediate pricing pressures are nearing 1970s peaksAnd finally, companies are under the most pressure to pass these price increases on to customers as the CPI-PPI inflation gap reaches a new record...
Fertilizer Index Hits Record, Threatening Higher Food Prices - A gauge of North American fertilizer prices soared to a record high, driving up costs for farmers and threatening to worsen food inflation. The Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index rose 7.9% to $996.32 per short ton, soaring past its 2008 peak to set a new benchmark for the index that began in January 2002.
Nearly 80,000 shipping containers are piled high in the Port of Savannah, a report says, as the supply chain crisis shows no sign of stopping -The Port of Savannah, like other ports around the US, is approaching crisis point, according to a report by The New York Times. It has nearly 80,000 containers — 50% more than normal — stacked up, and the person that oversees the port says he's "never had the yard as full as this." About 700 containers have been left there for a month or more, per The Times. In September, 4,500 containers sat in the port for weeks, waiting to be collected by the trucks or boats that take them to their next destination, The Times reported.These issues have become common in ports around the world. After falling shipping demand in the first half of 2020, a surge at the end of that year led to delays, port traffic jams, and blockages across the supply chain. A lack of shipping containers and dock workers made it worse. Now, containers are getting jammed up in ports because of both rising demand and a continuing shortage of staff to unload them and take them to their destination. Around the world, other containers are stuck at sea on ships that are waiting to find a spot in port. Insider's Grace Kay reported earlier in October that nearly 500,000 shipping containers were stuck off the coast of Southern California.The traffic jam in Savannah shows no signs of easing up, Griff Lynch, who oversees the port and is executive director of the Georgia Ports Authority, said.He has had to force some ships to wait at sea for more than nine days, and recently had more than 20 ships in a queue, he said. "The supply chain is overwhelmed and inundated ... It's not sustainable at this point," he told The Times.The fact 4,500 containers sat for weeks in September was "bordering on ridiculous," he said. The immediate concern for the industry is dealing with supply chain issues ahead of the busy holiday shopping season. But experts say these issues are set to continue well into next year and beyond.
What America’s port crisis looks like up close: a traffic jam of containers and trucks. — Like toy blocks hurled from the heavens, nearly 80,000 shipping containers are stacked in various configurations at the Port of Savannah — 50 percent more than usual.The steel boxes are waiting for ships to carry them to their final destination, or for trucks to haul them to warehouses that are themselves stuffed to the rafters. Some 700 containers have been left at the port, on the banks of the Savannah River, by their owners for a month or more.“They’re not coming to get their freight,” complained Griff Lynch, the executive director of the Georgia Ports Authority. “We’ve never had the yard as full as this.”As he speaks, another vessel glides silently toward an open berth — the 1,207-foot-long Yang Ming Witness, its decks jammed with containers full of clothing, shoes, electronics and other stuff made in factories in Asia. Towering cranes soon pluck the thousands of boxes off the ship — more cargo that must be stashed somewhere.It has come to this in the Great Supply Chain Disruption: They are running out of places to put things at one of the largest ports in the United States. As major ports contend with a staggering pileup of cargo, what once seemed like a temporary phenomenon — a traffic jam that would eventually dissipate — is increasingly viewed as a new reality that could require a substantial refashioning of the world’s shipping infrastructure.
Ex-Walmart CEO: How Biden supply chain is a ‘mess from start to finish’ - Former Walmart president and CEO Bill Simon ripped the supply chain under President Joe Biden on Friday, calling it a "mess from start to finish." "I've never seen it like this, and I don't really think anybody living in this country has," Simon told FOX Business’ Dagen McDowell. "I mean, this is really unprecedented." Simon joined "Mornings with Maria" to react to Americans’ widespread criticism of Biden’s response to shipping challenges and rising consumer prices. The hashtag #EmptyShelvesJoe held its own as a top trend on Twitter Thursday evening. "There's a shortage of labor in our distribution system and there's a shortage of people to put [items] on the shelf," Simon explained. He suggested that Biden’s first step to overcoming supply chain disruptions is to address the ongoing worker shortage. "I don't think this gets solved until we alleviate the labor shortage that's out there and get people driving trucks and unloading at the docks and stocking shelves," Simon said. With shipping and inventory backlogs expected to carry into the holiday season, Simon believes giant retail stores will survive while small businesses could struggle to keep shelves stocked. "Smaller retailers just can’t get the product," he said. "They're just going to be left with nothing. It's going to be difficult for them."
Uber Freight chief says we've entered an era of supply chain 'Armageddon' - Uber Freight chief Lior Ron said on Thursday there is not a singular answer to solve the nation’s shipping crisis, arguing instead that a whole industry approach will be necessary. “It really requires the entire industry because we are facing just unprecedented times. We’re literally living in a shipping Armageddon,” Ron, the head of Uber Technologies’ logistics division, told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday. Uber Freight, like the company’s traditional ride sharing app, serves as a connection between available truckers and companies who need items shipped. But Ron told the outlet the industry needs more than Uber Freight’s million plus drivers to resolve the logjam. “We can definitely make a dent with technology — and we are — but it requires more,” Ron said. “Some of it also is about wages,” adding that family matters are also a factor. "It's harder for them to be on the road and there is a better alternative in driving closer to home and doing last-mile delivery. We ask them to do more and more and maybe they don't want to even have to go on the road because they have to be stuck in facilities or have health concerns," he said. America is changing faster than ever! Add Changing America to your Facebook or Twitter feed to stay on top of the news. Ron’s comments follow a plan by the Biden administration to relieve congestion at the nation’s shipping ports by working with companies to commit to operating facilities 24 hours per day. The White House announced Wednesday that Walmart, FedEx and UPS will work around the clock to address the supply chain bottlenecks. “The supply chain is essentially in the hands of the private sector, so we need the private sector to step up to help solve these problems. Three of the largest goods carriers in the country, Walmart, FedEx and UPS, will make commitments towards moving to 24/7, working during off peak hours,” a senior administration official previously told The Hill.
The Supply Chain Crisis: How We Got Here --Yves Smith - Advanced economies are in the throes of what can, without exaggeration, be called a global supply chain crisis. Car makers unable to meet demand and even in many cases produce full featured cars due to chip shortages. Shipping rates spiking then collapsing due to a lack of containers and truckers at ports. Petrol and food shortages in the UK. Warnings even in the US to buy Christmas gifts now because they might not be available later. And there are also increasing reports of shortfalls of drugs and medical supplies.The original sin is optimizing businesses for efficiency at the expense of having slack to contend with unexpected developments….anything from the factory of a key supplier blowing up to the macro-level disruption of Covid. More buffers means more resilience. Having them doesn’t mean all bad outcomes would have prevented. But we would have had fewer deficits and many would have resolved faster. In other words, companies around the world set out to increase collective tail risk in pursuit of profit.How did this result come about? A lot of commentators want to point to mechanisms like globalization or consolidation, as opposed to why did executives decide to pursue those fads? Having come in to the world of commerce at the tail end of the old regime, here are the management practices that produced companies with sprawling supply chains as important parts of their operations, as opposed to old industrial model of internal integration. I’ll try to lay these developments in rough time order, but they obviously overlap.
- Just in time manufacturing. In the later 1970s, the business press regularly described how Japanese and German manufacturers were eating the lunch of their sclerotic American competitors. Carmakers were Exhibit 1. The experts conceded that the foreign insurgents did have the good fortune to be operating out of newer plants, but a big part of the problem was outdated practices and bad relations with workers 1 (the success of the NUMMI, where Toyota took over the management of a plant with a reputed-to-be-terrible workforce and got it performing at over the median for quality standards for Toyota operations proved the problem was much more “bad management” than “bad unions.”
- Outsourcing. Electronic Data Systems pioneered in outsourcing before it was even called outsourcing, acting as a “facilities manager”for big corporate and government IT departments. EDS would often buy the data center, taking on the employees, and run the operation for a fee. Even though companies had been selectively outsourcing before (for instance, the legal department hiring outside law firms for litigation or other specialized or one-off work), the EDS approach was more radical, in essence taking over an entire, usually pretty large, and usually mission critical corporate function and entrusting it to outsiders. The fact that EDS was competent and much better at optimizing the use of then very price IBM computers than their customers were meant the deals were win-wins. I don’t recall ever reading of an EDS deal going bad; one assumes they either didn’t or EDS would do what it took to make amends.
- GE envy/imitation. During the Jack Welch era, the business press and management gurus held up GE a paragon of American manufacturing.3 One of the much-touted GE principles was not to be in a market unless they could be number one or number two. This rule became the fodder for many management consultant studies urging either divestitures or acquisitions to achieved the supposedly magical market position (never mind that market definitions are very fuzzy). Even though consolidation plays are hard to execute and seldom succeed (every study ever done has found that between 2/3 and 3/4 of all acquisitions fail, as in do not deliver value to the buyer), unless a deal was obvious misconceived, Wall Street would generally give a prospective buyer’s stock a pop.
- Concentrated supply networks. By the late 1980s, if not earlier, another managerial fad for manufacturers was to greatly thin their supplier networks. The claim was that having fewer suppliers would allow the buyer to invest in their supplier and forge deeper relationships. That never seemed to be the operative truth. Someone who becomes a large, as in overly large, customer to a business can push them around. I always assumed this fashion was primarily about extracting better prices or valuable non-price terms.
- Offshoring. For global manufacturers, this was hardly a new idea. Automakers had plants in foreign markets largely to serve customers in those markets. However, Mexican maquiladoras quickly became popular among American auto and parts makers and Japanese selling into the US market.
Biden announces 24/7 operation at Port of Los Angeles -- President Joe Biden announced Wednesday that the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, which handle 40 percent of US imports, would begin operating on a 24/7 basis, in an effort to expedite the movement of freight and overcome the supply chain crisis that threatens both the operation of US factories and the availability of goods for US consumers. Biden was flanked by transportation and warehousing industry officials and leaders of the Teamsters and International Longshore and Warehouse Union, as well as the AFL-CIO when he made the announcement. The use of the White House symbolized the intervention by the federal government in the privately owned shipping and warehouse industries, which has no precedent except for the issuance of strikebreaking injunctions under the Taft-Hartley Act. The immediate concern of the Biden administration is that the supply chain crisis will force more shutdowns of US factories, as well as drying up the supply of goods for sale by retailers in November and December, the Thanksgiving to Christmas period which is the most lucrative. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, speaking to CBS News Tuesday, warned that the supply chain was “very stressed” and that “close to 100 ships” were docked off Southern California waiting to unload. But she sought to downplay the immediate impact on consumers. “There may be isolated shortages of goods and services in the coming months. But there is an ample supply of goods. And I think there’s no reason for consumers to panic about the absence of goods that they’re going want to acquire at Christmas,” she said. The bottleneck at the Port of Los Angeles is only the most visible demonstration of a more far-ranging crisis in the shipping of goods, mainly from East Asia to the US market. The cargo ships, most of them loaded with thousands of 20-foot containers, are anchored off Los Angeles and Long Beach waiting their turn to dock and unload at the two ports. The Port of Long Beach carried out a test of the 24/7 operation three weeks ago at a single terminal. The pilot program is now being extended to both ports and every dock, increasing the number of hours of operation from 112 at each port—16 hours a day, seven days a week—to 168 hours, with round-the-clock loading and unloading of cargo. Neither the White House, the Port of Los Angeles, the shipping companies nor the ILWU has outlined what the conditions of labor will be during the longer operations. Contrary to initial press reports, there is no ban on 24/7 operations in the ILWU contract, but employers have declined to pay workers overtime rates for additional hours worked each day and on weekends. The ILWU contract provides for two eight-hour shifts daily, with voluntary two-hour overtime at the end of each shift, plus a five-hour “owl” shift each night, starting at 3:00 a.m. All overtime work, as well as the “owl” shift and weekend work, is paid at premium rates, so employers have refused to schedule work at those times. The union has not yet made public whether the overtime rates for additional hours worked will still apply with the new 24/7 schedule, only announcing that ILWU members will work all the additional hours on a voluntary basis. But given the record of the ILWU, in particular, and of the corporatist trade unions as a whole, the worst is to be expected.
Truckers Warn Federal Regulators Of Drug-Testing Bottlenecks -A shortage of available drug and alcohol testing clinics, personnel and equipment threaten to unfairly ban truck drivers from the road, according to the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association.In a letter sent to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration on Wednesday, OOIDA President and CEO Todd Spencer said that disruptions affecting FMCSA’s testing system are causing “significant challenges” for drivers.To remain compliant with federal drug and alcohol rules, drivers are required to submit to random testing. However, “increasingly, our association has experienced difficulties finding facilities to schedule and complete necessary tests for our members,” Spencer wrote to FMCSA Administrator Meera Joshi.“Drivers have reported to facilities that lack equipment, like drug testing specimen cups, due to the current broader shortages of plastics. In other instances, facilities don’t have qualified personnel to administer the test. From what we have heard from testing facilities, these disruptions are due to the continuing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.”Spencer explained that when drivers are notified they will be tested, they must immediately report to a testing site. But if issues at the collection site prevent the facility from completing the test, they cannot simply leave the site, even if a facility is unable to complete the required test. “This is because leaving the site could constitute a refusal, which has the same consequences as a positive test. As a result, a trucker would lose their ability to drive.” FMCSA has acknowledged the clash between required random drug testing and disruptions caused by the pandemic. Last year the agency issued a discretion determination notice giving carriers some leeway if they were unable to comply with certain testing requirements caused by the COVID-19 emergency. OOIDA did not immediately respond to comment on the extent to which its members have been stripped of their driving credentials, but it wants FMCSA to issue special guidelines or provide temporary relief to keep the problem from occurring. “FMCSA should also clarify what options are available to drivers when they encounter facilities that cannot complete tests,” Spencer stated.“Furthermore, FMCSA should ensure that all DOT staff responsible for administering the drug and alcohol testing program are aware of these issues and can recognize them when they are reported. At a minimum, FMCSA must alleviate potential confusion that drivers may face by improving communication about these complications."
Empire State Mfg Survey: Solid Growth in October - This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 19.8 was a decrease of 14.5 from the previous month's 34.3 . The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 27.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report.Business activity grew at a solid pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell fifteen points to 19.8, pointing to a slower pace of growth than last month. New orders and shipments increased, though by less than they did last month. The delivery times index inched up to a record high. Labor market indicators pointed to ongoing growth in employment and the average workweek. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes held near record highs. Looking ahead, firms were still very optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months. [Full report] Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:
What to know about Kentucky, Tennessee incentives for Ford's factories - Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee have said there was a lot of competition for Ford Motor Co.'s future, multibillion-dollar electric vehicle and battery manufacturing plants.Both their administrations managed to win those factories for their states — and offered several hundred million dollars in incentives as part of the deal.Here's what each state offered, and what they're getting in return: Kentucky's planned incentives haven't actually been provided yet, but Beshear's administration has offered a package that includes:
- A performance-based, forgivable loan of up to $250 million;
- Conveyance of the more than 1,500-acre site where Ford's future operation will be built;
- Up to $36 million devoted to workforce training initiatives.
Ford announced in late September that it plans to build twin battery manufacturing plants in Hardin County, Kentucky, that will power its future lines of electric vehicles. Beshear recently said of the talks that preceded the automaker's decision: "One of the reasons that Ford is so successful is they are very good negotiators. This was very competitive. They were looking across the country. But we’re really humbled. ... We’re not going to let them down." Tennessee's proposed incentives are even pricier than Kentucky's. They include:
- A $500 million grant to Ford and its business partner on these projects, South Korea-based SK Innovation;
- Plans to develop a new Tennessee College of Applied Technology location beside Ford's future manufacturing campus in the state.
The Tennessee Valley Authority also was part of the negotiations for the Ford project. TVA officials indicated the public utility offered discounted electricity and also plans to build infrastructure worth "hundreds of millions of dollars" to support Ford's future campus, The Commercial Appeal reported.More: Kentucky and Tennessee lavished incentives on Ford for new factories. Will it pay off?
Nearly 40% of Americans seeing ‘serious financial problems’ in past few months - Nearly 40 percent of Americans say they’ve experienced serious financial problems over the past few months and almost 70 percent are worried about their children falling behind in school, according to a new national poll.After growing optimism over the summer that the worst of the pandemic had passed, the resurgence of the virus with the ultra-contagious Delta variant has brought the march back to normal to a halt in some cases — especially when it comes to households struggling with finances.The reports of economic struggles come even as 67 percent of households surveyed said they’d received financial help from the government in the past few months.And it’s not just pain in the pocketbook: People surveyed said they also worried about their children falling behind in school after a year of lockdown and a stop-and-start reopening of schools in some cases. A full 69 percent of households with children in grades K-12 last year report their children fell behind in learning because of the coronavirus. Of those, 36 percent said their children fell behind “a lot.” Feelings haven’t brightened for this school year: Of the households that said their children fell behind last year, 70 percent say it will be difficult for their children to catch up on what they missed, according to the poll.The poll, conducted by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in conjunction with NPR and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, surveyed 3,616 US adults from Aug. 2 to Sept. 7.“While Americans have widely received help from the government during the COVID-19 outbreak, millions are still having very serious problems with their finances, health care, and their children’s education,” said Robert J. Blendon, co-director of the survey and a Harvard public health professor.Meanwhile, not all households report they’ve felt serious pain: Among those with annual household incomes under $50,000, 59 percent said they’d faced serious financial problems. The figure falls to 18 percent when it comes to households with incomes over $50,000, according to the survey.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 293,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending October 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 293,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 326,000 to 329,000. The 4-week moving average was 334,250, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 344,000 to 344,750.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 334,250.The previous week was revised up.Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,593,000 (SA) from 2,727,000 (SA) the previous week.Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.
The Number Of Americans On Benefits Crashes To Less Than 4 Million, Down 25 Million From Year Ago - For the first time since early March 2020, less than 300k Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week... California saw the biggest increase in claims along with Michigan while Florida and Tennessee saw the biggest drops... The number of people on pandemic benefits continues to plunge... As total claims falls back below 4 million for the first time since the pandemic...
BLS: Job Openings Decrease to 10.4 Million in August -- From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings declined to 10.4 million on the last business day of August following a series high in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 6.3 million while total separations were little changed at 6.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate increased to a series high of 2.9 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 0.9 percent.The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.This series started in December 2000.Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The huge spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings decreased in August to 10.439 million from 11.098 million in July. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 62% year-over-year. Quits were up 43% year-over-year to a new record high. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
Job Openings & Labor Turnover: August 2021 Update -The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through August, is now available. From the press release:The number of job openings declined to 10.4 million on the last business day of August following a series high in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 6.3 million while total separations were little changed at 6.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate increased to a series high of 2.9 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 0.9 percent. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, by four geographic regions, and by establishment size class. The first chart below shows four of the headline components of the overall series, which the BLS began tracking in December 2000. The time frame is quite limited compared to the main BLS data series in the monthly employment report, many of which go back to 1948, and the enormously popular Nonfarm Employment (PAYEMS) series goes back to 1939. Nevertheless, there are some clear JOLTS correlations with the most recent business cycle trends. The chart below shows the monthly data points four of the JOLTS series. They are quite volatile, hence the inclusion of six-month moving averages to help identify the trends. The moving average for openings was above the hires levels for over five years, as seen in the chart below. The openings MA dipped below the hires for a brief two months (May and June 2020), only to climb above once more in July 2020.For comparison, here is the monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary charted with JOLTS data: The chart above is based on the actual numbers in the JOLTS report. A better way to view the numbers is as a percent of Nonfarm Employment, which essentially gives us a population-adjusted version of the data. Here is that adjustment for four of the JOLTS series. Note that the vertical axis for each is optimized for the high-low range to facilitate an understanding of the individual trends. Based on the six-month moving averages, we can see that:
- The openings moving average is again above the hires levels.
- Hires are below their all-time high.
- Quits are at their all-time high.
- The Layoffs and Discharges series is below its pre-pandemic levels.
August JOLTS report: progress towards a new jobs equilibrium? -This morning’s JOLTS report covers August, which you may recall featured a disappointing jobs report (since revised somewhat higher ), during which the Delta wave was growing to its worst levels, and two months after a number of GOP-controlled States terminated enhanced unemployment benefits, on the theory that they were excessive and were coddling idle workers. Despite this, last month we did not see a big drop in unfilled job openings. This month we did - but we saw a big decline in actual hires, too.Job openings decreased 659,000 to 10.349 million (blue in the graph below), while actual hiring (red) also decreased 439,000 to 6.322 million:
Here are the month over month percentage changes for each of those metrics:
Meanwhile, voluntary quits rose to a new record of 4.270 million:
The record number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs (meaning they are not eligible for unemployment benefits) is testimony to the record robustness of the jobs market despite the cutoff of emergency benefits by many States.Layoffs and discharges (violet, right scale) declined by 322,000 to 1.343 million to yet another record low, while total separations (light blue, left scale) rose by 211,000 to 6.003 million, a level that was typical during the last two expansions:
Last month I wrote that “this is a market that continues to be out of equilibrium and is searching for a new one.” This month is evidence of some progress in that direction, given the decline in job openings. The record number of quits and the record low in layoffs and discharges indicates, however, that the market remains very tight and tilted in favor of labor over management (for the first time in over 20 years). But the sizable decline in actual hires belies the idea that, with a cutoff in benefits, employers will be hiring a new batch of needy potential workers.In other words, the termination of benefits has apparently not been effective at all in actually generating new employment. The inability to find child care, or concerns about the safety of jobs on offer, and possibly the amount of previous emergency benefits that have been saved and are providing a cushion, remain likely factors. A great deal continues to depend on the course of the Delta wave, which has not receded significantly at all along the northern (colder) frontier of States. I do not believe that a new equilibrium in the jobs market will be reached until the COVID pandemic recedes at least into a tolerable background status.
Why Record Numbers of Workers Are Quitting and Striking -On September 14, a young woman in Louisiana named Beth McGrath posted a selfie Facebook video of herself working at Walmart. Her body language shows a nervous energy as she works up the courage to speak on the intercom and announces her resignation to shoppers. “Everyone here is overworked and underpaid,” she begins, before going on to call out specific managers for inappropriate and abusive behavior. “I hope you don’t speak to your families the way you speak to us,” she said before ending with “f**k this job!” Perhaps McGrath was inspired by Shana Ragland in Lubbock, Texas, who nearly a year ago carried out a similarly public resignation in a TikTok video that she posted from the Walmart store where she worked. Ragland’s complaints were similar to McGrath’s as she accused managers of constantly disparaging workers. “I hope you don’t talk to your daughters the way you talk to me,” she said over the store intercom before signing off with, “F**k the managers, f**k this company.”The viral resignations of these two young women are bookending a year of volatility in the American workforce that economists have branded the Great Resignation. Women in particular are seen as leading the trend. The seriousness of the situation was confirmed by the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics reportshowing that a record 2.9 percent of the workforce quit their jobs in August, which is equivalent to 4.3 million resignations.If such a high rate of resignations were occurring at a time when jobs were plentiful, it might be seen as a sign of a booming economy where workers have their pick of offers. But the same labor report showed that job openings have also declined, suggesting that something else is going on. Anew Harris Poll of people with employment found that more than half of workers want to leave their jobs. Many cite uncaring employers and a lack of scheduling flexibility as reasons for wanting to quit. In other words, millions of American workers have simply had enough.So serious is the labor market upheaval that Jack Kelly, senior contributor to Forbes.com, a pro-corporate news outlet, has defined the trend as, “a sort of workers’ revolution and uprising against bad bosses and tone-deaf companies that refuse to pay well and take advantage of their staff.” In what might be a reference to viral videos like those of McGrath, Ragland, and the growing trend of #QuitMyJob posts, Kelly goes on to say, “The quitters are making a powerful, positive and self-affirming statement saying that they won’t take the abusive behavior any longer.”Still, some advisers suggest countering the worker rage with “bonding exercises” such as “Gratitude sharing,” and games. Others suggest increasing trust between workers and bosses or “exercis[ing] empathetic curiosity” with employees. But such superficial approaches entirely miss the point. The resignations ought to be viewed hand in hand with another powerful current that many economists are ignoring: a growing willingness by unionized workers to go on strike. The number of strikes and of striking workers might be far higher if more workers were unionized. Non-union workers like McGrath and Ragland hired by historically anti-unioncompanies like Walmart might have been able to organize their fellow workers instead of resorting to individual resignations. While viral social media posts of quitting are impactful in driving the conversation around worker dissatisfaction, they have little direct bearing on the lives of the workers and the colleagues they leave behind.
Building Back Better and the September Jobs Report - Dean Baker - If President Biden was designing a jobs report to advance his Build Back Better agenda, he could not have done better than the September jobs report. (No, he didn’t manipulate the data.) It shows the need for improving our caring infrastructure to make it possible for more women to work. It also shows the need to improve our infrastructure to limit supply chain disruptions.But before getting to these issues, it’s first important to dispel the idea that this was a bad jobs report. The September data showed a 0.4 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate, bringing it to 4.8 percent. Most analysts had predicted a drop of just 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points. We didn’t get the unemployment rate down to 4.8 percent following the Great Recession until January of 2016. And, this decline was due to workers getting jobs, not the unemployed dropping out of the labor market. The number of employed in the household survey increased by 526,000.The negative view of the September report is based on the weaker than expected job growth reported in the establishment survey. The increase of 194,000 in payroll jobs was well below the 400,000 to 500,000 job gain most analysts had expected. While that seems like a bad story, a closer look shows otherwise.The biggest contributor to the weak job growth story was the loss of 161,000 jobs in state and local government education. There is not an obvious explanation for this job loss (I’ll come back to this issue), but suppose that we didn’t see this sort of job loss in public sector education. Suppose that we instead regained more of the education jobs lost in the pandemic.The private sector added a healthy 317,000 jobs in September. If the public sector had added 100,000 jobs for the month, as many had expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics would have reported job growth of 417,000 in September, well within the generally expected range.So, the big question is why are we losing jobs in education instead of adding them? It’s hard to come up with a good story here. Some analysts have suggested the problem is with the seasonal adjustment. On an unadjusted basis, state and local education added 1,033,000 jobs in September. The argument is that the seasonal adjustment is inappropriate for this year, since the pandemic has altered the normal timing of the school year and employment patterns.But this argument really doesn’t fit. If we just look at the non-seasonally adjusted data, employment in public education is down 431,000 from the levels of September of 2019, a decline of 4.8 percent. Schools are back to in-class instruction pretty much everywhere. Unless we have seen a sharp rise in student-to- teacher ratios, or a large decline in support staff, this drop in employment from before the pandemic doesn’t make sense.Anyhow, we will need to sort out what is going on with employment in public schools, but if we set that issue aside for the moment, the jobs picture in the establishment survey looks pretty good. As noted earlier, the 317,000 private sector jobs added in the month was very much consistent with expectations. But an element of the picture that has not gotten nearly the attention it deserves is the increase in the length of the average workweek.The average workweek rose by 0.2 hours. This rise in average weekly hours, coupled with the rise in employment, led to a rise of 0.9 in the index of aggregate hours. This is the largest increase since March.A story that is consistent with a rise in hours, coupled with a limited increase in payroll employment, is that employers are having trouble getting the workers they need to meet the demand they are seeing. They adjust to this situation by working their existing workforce more hours….
Parsing the September Employment Release - Overall and private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment surprised on the downside — but the fact that private missed by a smaller amount suggests that the slowdown is a little less pronounced than indicated by the headline number. First consider private vs. total NFP, as well as private NFP hours: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (black), private nonfarm payroll employment (tan), and aggregate weekly hours of private nonfarm payroll employment (pink), all seasonally adjusted, in logs, 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.The slowdown was much less pronounced for private NFP, hinting at (the oft mentioned) problems with seasonal adjustment issues for government employment, particularly education-related.Furthermore, private hours continued to rise fairly smartly, at 6.2% m/m annualized (and at 3 month annualized changes). (h/t Jason Furman and Powell, who cites the advice of Steven Braun).Additional insight into the role of the government sector can be seen in a decomposition of net job losses relative to NBER peak month (2020M02):Figure 2: Employment relative to 2020M02 for manufacturing (blue), accommodations and food services (tan), government (green) and all other nonfarm payroll employment, in thousands, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.One of the widening bars is government employment. And accommodation and food services fails to shrink, indicating stalled recovery. That latter definitely points to the impact of the delta variant on high contact services consumption.Finally, wages continue to rise in nominal terms, possibly in real terms (we have September average hourly wages, but not September CPI). In any case, it’s important to remember that the average does not control for composition effects. A bit more information is provided by a disaggregated look at the extremes, i.e., manufacturing (goods producing) vs. high contact services (leisure and hospitality services). In all cases, these are production/non-supervisory numbers.Figure 3: Real average hourly earnings in private nonfarm payroll employment (black), in manufacturing (red), and in leisure and hospitality (teal), CPI deflated, in logs 2020M02=0. September observations deflate using Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 10/10. All series pertain to production/non-supervisory workers. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Sources: BLS via FRED, Cleveland Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.Clearly, leisure and hospitality services have surged far ahead of goods production, after suffering a big decline. That being said, real hourly earnings in leisure and hospitality are only 2.9% higher than 2014-19 trend. Another perspective on how real wages have evolved is gained by looking at actual levels (rather than normalized) of real wages. Figure 4: Real average hourly earnings in private nonfarm payroll employment (black), in manufacturing (red), and in leisure and hospitality (teal), 2014-19 log-linear trend (gray), all CPI deflated to 2020$. September observations deflate using Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 10/10. All series pertain to production/non-supervisory workers. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Sources: BLS via FRED, Cleveland Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.More on the implications of the release for assessing overall economic activity here. A comprehensive examination by Furman and Powellhere. See also Calculated Risk.
More women left the work force in September than the US economy added jobs - The Delta variant, a chaotic back-to-school season, and childcare issues have all led to yet another dismal month for women's employment. In September, hundreds of thousands of women dropped out of the labor force completely last month, while men came back. The US gained 194,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, below the estimate of 500,000. Women lost 26,000 jobs in September, according to the establishment survey of businesses run by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. "If you look in the economy, women are not coming back into the workforce in as strong of a way as we would want, or as the economy needs in order to continue to expand," Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told Insider. "And it's clear that the number one reason for that is that women are still struggling to find high quality, stable, affordable childcare."As seen in the below chart, while 182,000 men aged 20 and over entered the labor force in September, 309,000 women aged 20 and over left the labor force. That means that they weren't working or actively looking for work. Jasmine Tucker, director of research at the National Women's Law Center, told Insider that she's not surprised by this number, and in fact thought it could have been even higher.Tucker said with many schools not providing a remote learning option and concerns about the Delta variant, "that there were going to be another wave of labor force dropouts." She said it came as "no surprise that that was going to fall to women's shoulders to take on." In fact, September marked the biggest drop of labor force participation for women this year — and the National Women's Law Center notes that this is the biggest drop since September 2020. The following chart shows just how much labor force participation differs between men and women:
Even $70,000-Plus a Year Top Pay for a Service Tech Gets No Takers in This Job Market - Owen Palm, the CEO of 21st Century Equipment, a 16-dealership John Deere network that straddles the Nebraska, Wyoming and Colorado state borders, had hoped the end of the federal government's extra unemployment stipend, an added $300, would bring back prospective employees that had become desperately difficult to find. In Nebraska, the stipend ended in late May.In early October, Palm was still sweating the same problems."We were hoping things would loosen up a bit," he said. "Nebraska was one of the first states to terminate those extended benefits and we saw absolutely no movement in terms of available employees. It wasn't even a blip on the radar."Palm wasn't alone in hoping the nationwide labor shortage was a symptom of unemployment benefits. But now, a month after the national extended stipend ended and five months after some states, like Nebraska, began to end that stipend, there's no sign of want-to-be employees swarming out of the woodwork looking for jobs. It's affecting ag equipment manufacturers today and some are wondering how it's going to change the future of the industry.
Southwest Airlines cancels 1,800 flights, blaming weather and staffing -- Southwest Airlines canceled more than 1,800 flights this weekend, disrupting the travel plans of thousands of customers and stranding flight crews — the airline blamed the meltdown on a combination of bad weather, air traffic control issues and its own shortage of available staff. "I know this is incredibly difficult for all of you, and our Customers are not happy," Alan Kasher executive vice president of daily flight operations told staff in a note on Sunday, which was seen by CNBC. The airline said initial problems on bad weather and an "FAA-imposed air traffic management program" were to blame. "Although we were staffed for the weekend, we could not anticipate the significant disruption that was created from unexpected ATC issues and bad weather across our Florida stations," said Kasher. Other airlines canceled relatively few flights. Southwest did not comment on the disparity. The Federal Aviation Administration said there were a "few hours" of flight delays on Friday afternoon because of severe weather and staffing issues at Jacksonville Air Route Traffic Control Center, which controls airspace in five parts of Alabama, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina. "No FAA air traffic staffing shortages have been reported since Friday," the FAA said. "Some airlines continue to experience scheduling challenges due to aircraft and crews being out of place. Please contact the airlines for details about current flight schedules." Southwest's major destinations of Denver, Baltimore, Dallas Love Field and Chicago Midway were among the hardest hit by the cancellations on Sunday. Southwest apologized to travelers for long customer service waits. The airline said in a statement it expected to get close to normal operations by Sunday, but disruptions worsened. Southwest's Kasher acknowledged to employees in his note Sunday that some crew members didn't have hotel rooms last night and said disruptions can quickly snowball as flight crews hit contractual and federal working limits. "Right now, our [network operations center] Teams are working to protect our Crew network and prevent misconnects — both for our Crews and Customers — that would cause an even greater impact," he said. "And Teams are working to determine the best course of action to most quickly reset our network." The Dallas-based airline canceled 1,019 flights on Sunday, 28% of its schedule, after canceling 808 flights on Saturday, according to flight-tracking site FlightAware. American Airlines, which operates a large hub in Miami, in comparison, canceled 66 mainline flights, or 2% of its operation on Saturday and Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based Spirit Airlines canceled 32 flights, 4% of its schedule.
Southwest Airlines' flight cancellations continue on Monday : NPR - Southwest Airlines travelers are facing another day of disruptions. The carrier suspended hundreds of additional flights on Monday, after canceling and delayingthousands over the weekend — reportedly due to air traffic control issues and weather.The airline has canceled more than 360 flights and delayed another 1056 as of Monday afternoon eastern time, according to the online tracker FlightAware. Those canceled flights make up 10% of its schedule, as compared to 30% on Sunday. Southwest said over the weekend that the high volume of cancellations was causing longer-than-usual customer service wait times, and asked affected travelers to exploreself-service rebooking options online.The reason for the disruption depends on who you ask.Southwest blamed air traffic control issues and disruptive weather in a statement issued Sunday.That same day, however, the Federal Aviation Administration said that no FAA air traffic staffing shortages had been reported since Friday."Flight delays & cancellations occurred for a few hours Friday PM due to widespread severe weather, military training, & limited staffing in one area of the Jacksonville en route center," it tweeted. "Some airlines continue to experience scheduling challenges due to aircraft and crews being out of place." Henry Harteveldt, president and travel industry analyst at The Atmosphere Research Group, suggested two other possibilities to the Associated Press over the weekend. One is that Southwest scheduled more flights than it can handle, and operates a "point-to-point route network" that gives each delay a considerable ripple effect.He also suggested that some pilots are calling in sick or refusing to work in opposition to the COVID-19 vaccine mandate that Southwest announced earlier this month. Southwest executives and employees have denied that, even though the theory has been embraced by prominent conservatives including Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).The Southwest Airlines Pilots Association said on Sunday that "there are no work slowdowns or sickouts either related to the recent mandatory vaccine mandate or otherwise."It disputed the carrier's characterization of the reason for the weekend's disruptions."SWA has claimed that the immediate causes of this weekend's meltdown were staffing at Jacksonville Center and weather in the southeast U.S., but what was a minor temporary event for other carriers devastated Southwest Airlines because our operation has become brittle and subject to massive failures under the slightest pressure," the union said. "Our operation and our frontline employees have endured continuous andunending disruptions since the first time our airline made headlines in early June due to widespread IT failures."
Did Labor Action Over Vaccine Mandates Compel Southwest to Cancel Thousands of Flights? by Lambert Strether -- Betteridge would be pleased; from the evidence we have, the answer is no. Let’s start with what we know. From The Points Guy, “Southwest suffers operational meltdown as hundreds upon hundreds of flights canceled or delayed“: Southwest Airlines is suffering an operational meltdown this weekend as hundreds upon hundreds of flights have been delayed or canceled outright. The airline is blaming weather and an air traffic control issue from Friday for the domino effect of cancellations.Thousands of passengers have been stranded at airports, been forced to wait in long lines, or spent hours on hold trying to rebook their flights.Flight tracking company Flight Aware is reporting 27% of Sunday’s flights have already been canceled as of around 8 a.m. The airline had said that things might improve today, but so far it’s actually gotten a bit worse. According to Flight Aware, Saturday saw some 800 cancellations. Sunday morning it’s worse with more than 1,000 flights canceled. Seemingly driven by Twitter, right wing figure Alex Berenson (200,000 Twitter followers before he was banned) wrote “The revolt begins – at Southwest Airlines“: Pilots at Southwest appear to be sicking out in a rebellion against vaccine mandates that has crippled the airline since Friday. So, a pilot work stoppage at Southwest? After a few hours, Berenson’s claim leaped the Blue-Red barrier to #Resistance and #BLM figure Brooklyn Dad Defiant (918.4K followers), who tweeted: My sister just texted me and said she's stuck in Tucson because of Southwest Airlines cancelations. Apparently there is a "sickout" to protest vaccine mandates.Well. Obviously, I have priors on this story: I think the workers at the chokepoints in the supply chain (here, pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and ground personnel, for starters) have an enormous among of political power, should they decide to wield it to together. (See Kim Kelly’s On New Terrain.) So the possibility of a pilot work stoppage at Southwest pressed several of my buttons, and I immediately checked some labor accounts — Kim Kelly, Payday Report,Labor Notes, More Perfect Union, Strike Wave — to see what they had to say. Not a whisper. That tells me that it’s most likely that Berenson and Brooklyn Dad Defiant have hair trigger trouble on this story (although, speculating, for different reasons: Berenson from anti-vax, er, resistance sentiment; Brooklyn Dad from pro-vax tribalism plus hatred of unions). Also, if indeed there is a work stoppage, no spokespersons have emerged, or open letters issued, which strikes me as odd. Be that as it may, let’s run down the remainder of the story. First, it has to be said that Southwest’s public relations effort was especially clumsy. Here it is:
Deere workers reject UAW-backed concessions contract by 90 percent --Workers at agricultural equipment giant Deere and Company decisively rejected a concessions contract backed by the United Auto Workers union on Sunday by a 90 percent margin. The six-year deal was for 10,100 workers at Deere’s operations in Illinois, Iowa and Kansas.The results mark the first rejection of a UAW-backed contract at Deere in 35 years, according to workers, a humiliating repudiation of the UAW’s pro-company agreement. The UAW, while keeping workers on the job for now, announced Sunday night that it had set a strike deadline for midnight on Wednesday, October 13. Workers voted almost unanimously to authorize a strike last month. The margin of defeat was particularly high in the following locations:
- UAW Local 838 in Waterloo, Iowa, reported 2,518 voted “no” and 189 voted “yes,” a 93 percent margin. Waterloo is home to the largest operations by Deere in Iowa.
- At Deere’s facility in Dubuque, workers voted 1,174–97 against, a 92 percent margin.
- In Des Moines, the Iowa state capital, 595–61 against, a 90.7 percent margin.
- At Deere’s Harvester Works in East Moline, Illinois, workers voted 993–102 against, a 90.6 percent margin.
The deal would have included general wage increases averaging roughly 2 percent a year over six years, an effective cut to real wages. In addition, it would have eliminated pensions for workers hired after November 2021, creating an additional tier of workers on top of those previously accepted by the UAW in 1997. With Deere having already reported record profits for the year, and over $15 billion in profits in the course of the previous contract, workers rightly took the contract proposal as an insult. The overwhelming contract rejection is a powerful show of solidarity by Deere workers, expressing their determination to win genuine advances in their wages and benefits and reverse years of concessions enforced by the UAW. The vote was also the fifth rejection by autoworkers of a major contract proposal by the UAW in as many months. This includes three consecutive rejections at Volvo Trucks, and the rejection of a global agreement proposed by the UAW and the United Steelworkers at auto parts maker Dana Inc.
More than 10,000 John Deere workers on strike after failed UAW deal — More than 10,000 John Deere workers were on the picket line Thursday after their union was unable to hammer out a new contract with management of the tractor company.Workers at 14 Deere & Co. locations made good on their vow to go on strike at the stroke of midnight after "the company failed to present an agreement that met our members’ demands and needs,” The United Auto Workers union said in statement."Our members at John Deere strike for the ability to earn a decent living, retire with dignity and establish fair work rules," said Chuck Browning, vice president and director of the UAW's Agricultural Implement Department.Union workers overwhelmingly rejected a contract offer this week that would have delivered 5 percent raises to some workers and 6 percent to others.Now, the UAW said, workers will picket Deere around the clock until the two sides reach a contract. The union will provide members $275 a week in strike pay until the standoff is over.This is the first major strike in 35 years at John Deere, which is known for its iconic green and yellow farm equipment. And workers, many of whom have been toiling extra hours for months because of pandemic-related worker shortages, say they are fed up."The whole nation's going to be watching us," Chris Laursen, who works as a painter at Deere, told The Des Moines Register. “If we take a stand here for ourselves, our families, for basic human prosperity, it’s going to make a difference for the whole manufacturing industry. Let’s do it. Let’s not be intimidated.”Deere & Co. said it wants to keep talking."We are determined to reach an agreement with the UAW that would put every employee in a better economic position and continue to make them the highest paid employees in the agriculture and construction industries," Brad Morris, Deere vice president of labor relations, said in a statement obtained by the Register.But the company admitted in May that it was struggling to find enough qualified workers to meet its production needs.This year, another group of UAW-represented workers went on strike at a Volvo Trucks plant in Virginia and wound up with better pay and lower-cost health benefits after rejecting three tentative contract offers.The contracts under negotiation cover 14 Deere plants across the United States, including seven in Iowa, four in Illinois and one each in Kansas, Colorado and Georgia.The contract talks at the Moline, Illinois-based company hit a wall even as Deere was expecting to report record profits of $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion this year. The company has been reporting strong sales of its agricultural and construction equipment this year.The Deere production plants are an important contributors to the economy, so local officials hope any strike will be short-lived.
The strike wave in the United States heralds a new stage in the global class struggle -- At midnight on Wednesday, more than 10,000 John Deere agricultural equipment workers launched a strike in states throughout the US Midwest. While the United Auto Workers is still conspiring with corporate management to strangle the strike, it has no credibility with the rank and file. Last week, Deere workers rejected a concessions contract brought back by the UAW by over 90 percent. The rebellion of Deere workers is a major escalation of the strike movement that is sweeping across the United States: 500 distillery workers in Kentucky went on strike on September 11; 2,000 hospital workers in Buffalo, New York have been on strike since October 1; 1,400 Kellogg’s cereal workers in Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Tennessee walked out on October 5; and 2,000 Frontier telecom workers in California struck on October 6. More than 1,000 Warrior Met coal miners in Northern Alabama have been on strike since April. A series of more localized walkouts and protests indicate the breadth and depth of working class militancy: a walkout Tuesday morning of 185 workers at 28 group homes and day programs in Connecticut over poverty-level wages and benefits; sickouts to demand pay raises by dozens of school bus drivers in Bullitt County, Kentucky and Calvert County, Maryland this week; a two-day strike last week by 400 health care workers at McKenzie-Willamette Medical Center in Oregon; and a five-day strike last week of 350 health care workers in Antioch, California over staff shortages and working conditions. Tens of thousands of workers in other industries have approved strike action by overwhelming numbers, including 60,000 TV and film production workers in California who are set to strike beginning Sunday night; more than 40,000 Kaiser Permanente nurses and health care workers who have nearly unanimously authorized strike action across the West Coast; and 3,500 Dana Inc. auto parts workers. The Deere strike will encourage Dana workers to go out, as they have been working without a contract after massively repudiating a UAW-backed contract last month. Fueling the opposition of workers is accelerating inflation for consumer goods and services, which means a steady and sharp decline in the real wages of workers. Over the past 15 years, global central banks have provided limitless resources to bail out the banks and markets. The US Federal Reserve has increased its balance sheet from less than $1 trillion before the 2008 financial crash to nearly $8.5 trillion today by essentially printing money to buy up financial assets. This includes an increase of nearly $4 trillion since the beginning of the pandemic. The artificial inflation of financial assets and the wealth of the ruling class is now pouring into every section of the economy. The U.S. Labor Department reported yesterday that the consumer price index rose by 5.4 percent from a year earlier. Energy prices are surging globally, including a 64 percent increase in the price of crude oil so far this year and a doubling of natural gas prices over the past six months, both to seven-year highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said yesterday that it expects that households will see their heating bills increase by between 30 and 54 percent this winter over last. More broadly, expressed in the eruption of class struggle is anger that has built up over four decades of relentless assaults on living standards and the corresponding growth of staggering levels of social inequality. The already colossal wealth of US billionaires increased by $1.8 trillion during the pandemic to $4.8 trillion as of August of this year.
COVID-19 “spreads like wildfire” through Dana plants as UAW and USW conspire with auto parts maker against workers --Workers at Dana plants across the US report spikes in COVID cases at their plants. In Auburn Hills, Michigan, workers report that the COVID-19 situation is so bad that a mask mandate has been reinstated. A number of workers have tested positive at the plant, meaning the facility is likely already a source of community spread.Dana workers in Toledo, Ohio are also demanding the immediate shutdown of the plant due to the spread of COVID-19 and have threatened a walkout if steps are not taken to address the spread of the virus. Management recently threatened workers with mass firings if there is a walkout over COVID safety. One Toledo worker reports the deadly virus is “spreading like wildfire” and that the facility is understaffed because so many workers are out sick. The worker tells the WSWS that the company is punishing workers for taking unpaid COVID leave by putting others on lines they are not trained for, which is extremely dangerous. The worker said, “Dana needs to be shut down right now.”COVID-19 is spreading rapidly in many areas where Dana plants are located. In Oakland County, Michigan, where Dana’s plant Auburn Hills is located, cases are the highest since May, with 970 new cases reported October 8, 100 times higher than in July. Cases in Lucas County, Ohio (where Toledo is located) are 43.5 times higher than in the summer. Cases in Allen County, Ohio, home to Dana’s Lima plant, are the highest at any point in 2021 and 70 times higher than the summer. Allen County, Indiana, where Dana’s Fort Wayne plant is located, reported 274 new cases on October 8, comparable to the worst part of the surge of winter 2020-21. Case levels across Tennessee and Kentucky continue to remain very high. An average of 37 people die each day of COVID-19 in Kentucky, 49 each day in Tennessee. Cases are high because corporations have kept production running and because school districts are forcing children to return to school, even as more and more evidence emerges that the Delta variant can be deadly for children, with three children dying from COVID-19 every day across the US. On September 21, the United Steelworkers published an official statement pledging that negotiations on a the nationwide “global” agreement between the USW, the United Auto Workers and parts maker Dana would begin October 7 and “should be resolved by October 10.” Both dates have now passed, and sources tell usthat meetings have not even taken place on the global agreement. Workers are livid, telling the WSWS that the UAW and USW have told them “absolutely nothing,” as the old sweatshop contract is extended over and over again.This confirms that the UAW, USW and Dana are not “negotiating” but conspiring against Dana workers to impose the same deal workers’ rejected by 90 percent six weeks ago. As one Michigan Dana worker put it, “They’re stalling to help Dana.”
Alabama festival’s vaccine mandate spurs backlash, sparks push for law prohibiting any requirements - Fairhope’s film festival will return for its eighth edition next month, bringing back the four-day festival interrupted by the pandemic last year. Its comeback also came with a message for attendees posted on the festival’s website until early Tuesday: If you attend, you must show proof of vaccination. But the message has since been scrubbed after Fairhope resident Stephanie Durnin urged Fairhope city officials on Monday to consider revoking their festival sponsorship if the mandate wasn’t rescinded. Council members were unaware of the wording on the festival’s website. Durnin said she was acting as a concerned citizen and not as an activist when she publicly stated her concerns during a council meeting. She is the co-founder of Health Freedom Alabama – a grassroots organization that opposes vaccine mandates and is pushing for state legislative approval of a measure rejecting any vaccine mandate at the federal level. “I was not speaking for my capacity (as co-founder of Health Freedom Alabama),” said Durnin. “I saw an issue in my backyard with something the entire state worked hard on. I brought it to the council’s attention. I’m sure they will be compliant.” The festival, however, could keep the vaccination requirement in place under a loophole that Alabama event organizers and performers are using to maneuver SB267, which prohibits so-called vaccine passports or any efforts by businesses to deny services based on immunization status in Alabama. Festival planners throughout Alabama, in the months since SB267′s passage, have kept the vaccine requirements in place as an either/or situation. In other words, if a festival attendee cannot produce a proof of vaccination, then he or she can still attend if there is evidence of a recent negative COVID-19 test. The loophole is one that Health Freedom Alabama is attempting to close. The non-profit group recently announced state legislation in the form of HB31, which some supporters would like to see surface during the next special legislative session when lawmakers return to Montgomery to vote on reapportionment. That could take place within the next month. Any legislation that is voted on during a special session requires supermajority approval in both chambers of the Legislature.
New York’s Covid-19 Vaccine Mandate Needs Religious Exemption, Judge Rules – WSJ -A federal judge extended an order requiring New York state to allow religious exemptions from its Covid-19 vaccination mandate for healthcare workers, in a ruling that could help shape the legal landscape around government-required shots.In August, the New York State Department of Health said hospital and nursing-home workers would have to be vaccinated against Covid-19 within 30 days. Although there were provisions for medical exemptions, there were none based on religious beliefs, and when the mandate took effect last month, thousands of healthcare workers who refused vaccinations lost their jobs.On Tuesday, U.S. District Judge David Hurd in Utica, N.Y., ruled that the mandate conflicted with individuals’ federally-protected right to seek religious accommodation from their employers.Judge Hurd issued a preliminary injunction that extended a Sept. 14 restraining order, barring the state from sanctioning a healthcare facility that honored religious-exemption requests. The 27-page decision said that the health professionals are likely to succeed on their claims that the mandate violates their rights. For thousands of New York healthcare workers, the ruling ended weeks of living in limbo.“With this decision the court rightly recognized that yesterday’s ‘front line heroes’ in dealing with Covid cannot suddenly be treated as disease-carrying villains and kicked to the curb by the command of a state health bureaucracy,” said Christopher Ferrara, the lead attorney for the plaintiffs and special counsel to the Thomas More Society, a legal group that often advocates for conservative causes. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, said she would fight Tuesday’s decision. “My responsibility as governor is to protect the people of this state, and requiring healthcare workers to get vaccinated accomplishes that,” she said in a statement following the order.
A judge says New York must allow religious exemptions, for now, to its health care worker vaccine mandate. A federal judge ruled on Tuesday that New York State health officials must allow employers to grant religious exemptions to a Covid-19 vaccine mandate for health care workers while a lawsuit challenging the mandate makes its way through the courts.The judge’s order at least temporarily thwarts part of Gov. Kathy M. Hochul’s effort to require vaccination for all health care workers. It offers a reprieve for thousands of unvaccinated doctors, nurses and support workers who had applied for religious exemptions, and who would have been prevented from working beginning Tuesday if the judge had ruled for the state. The mandate remains in effect for all other health care workers.A lawyer for a group of workers who are suing the state over the mandate hailed the ruling.“With this decision, the court rightly recognized that yesterday’s ‘front line heroes’ in dealing with Covid cannot suddenly be treated as disease-carrying villains and kicked to the curb by the command of a state health bureaucracy,” said Christopher Ferrara of the Thomas More Society.Ms. Hochul, in a statement, indicated the state would appeal. “My responsibility as governor is to protect the people of this state, and requiring health care workers to get vaccinated accomplishes that,” Ms. Hochul said. “I stand behind this mandate, and I will fight this decision in court to keep New Yorkers safe.”Former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo issued the state’s first vaccine mandate for health workers in mid-August; it permitted religious exemptions.But when Ms. Hochul’s administration issued its own mandate later that month — to take effect this fall — it rescinded the exemptions. That prompted 17 health care workers to sue the state in federal court, on the ground that the mandate conflicted with their religious beliefs.Between the two governors’ orders, thousands of health care workers across the state had applied for or received a religious exemption.In his 27-page ruling, Judge David N. Hurd of the Northern District in Utica wrote that New York appeared to overreach by barring all religious accommodations in the mandate. He issued a preliminary injunction preventing the Department of Health from acting against any employer who grants religious exemptions, and wrote that the 17 health care workers were likely to succeed in their case.“The Department of Health is barred from interfering in any way with the granting of religious exemptions from Covid-19 vaccination going forward, or with the operation of exemptions already granted,” Judge Hurd wrote.
Vaccination-related employee departures at 25 hospitals, health systems --Amid health system and state COVID-19 vaccination requirements, workers have been fired for noncompliance, and some have resigned or quit. Here are stats from 26 organizations, announced since June: Note: This list was updated Oct. 11. It is not exhaustive.
- 1. Eighty-four employees had resigned from Lewiston-based Central Maine Healthcare as of Oct. 11 because of a state vaccination mandate, according to system spokesperson Ann Kim. More than 250 employees had no COVID-19 vaccination record with the system and 170 of them are in direct patient care roles at Central Maine Medical Center.
- 2. Syracuse, N.Y.-based St. Joseph's Health fired 78 workers for refusing to get vaccinated, according to syracuse.com. The terminated employees refused to get vaccinated by the state's Sept. 27 mandate deadline and remained unvaccinated after a suspension period.
- 3. About 400 employees unvaccinated against COVID-19 have quit their jobs at Detroit-based Henry Ford Health System, the Detroit Free Press, Bridge Michigan and Michigan Radio reported Oct. 5. The employees who left their jobs represent about 1 percent of Henry Ford's 33,000-person workforce.
- 4. Aurora, Colo.-based UCHealth fired more than 100 workers — including 54 in the Denver metropolitan area — who refused to get vaccinated, officials said Oct. 4, according to the Denver Post. System spokesperson Dan Weaver told the newspaper 119 — or less than 0.5 percent of the system's 26,500 employees statewide — did not get vaccinated or receive an exemption by the Oct. 1 mandate deadline.
- 5. A total of 1,400 employees of New Hyde Park, N.Y.-based Northwell Health either resigned or were terminated for refusing to get vaccinated against COVID-19, a spokesperson confirmed to Becker's Oct. 4. The departures represent less than 2 percent of Northwell's workforce.
- 6. Falls Church-based Inova Health System lost 89 workers for noncompliance with the system's Sept. 1 vaccine requirement, J. Stephen Jones, president and CEO of the system, told The Washington Post. This represents less than half of 1 percent of its 20,000-person workforce.
- 7. Seventy-two employees were terminated from Winchester-based Valley Health on Sept. 21, for noncompliance with the Sept. 7 vaccine requirement, health system officials told The Washington Post. About 300 of the system's 6,000 workers received a religious or medical exemption, officials said.
- 8. Upstate University Hospital in Syracuse, N.Y., suspended or fired 113 employees for refusing to get vaccinated by the state's mandate deadline Sept. 27, according to syracuse.com.
- 9. Thirty-eight unvaccinated employees at San Diego-based Scripps Health will be terminated through their voluntary resignation, based on failure to comply with California's mandate, according to Scripps President and CEO Chris Van Gorder. He told Becker's Scripps will rehire these workers at their full status and seniority if they become vaccination-compliant by Nov. 1.
- 10. St. Luke's University Health Network, a Bethlehem, Pa.-based system with 17,000 employees, saidSept. 28 that 68 full-time employees and 87 part-time/per diem employees refused to become vaccinated by the organization's Sept. 25 deadline and resigned.
- 11. Newark, Del.-based ChristianaCare fired about 150 employees, or the equivalent of fewer than 90 full-time employees, for not complying with its vaccination policy, Janice Nevin, MD, president and CEO, wrote in a blog post Sept. 27.
- 12. Fewer than 250 of New York City-based NewYork-Presbyterian's 48,000 team members failed to comply with the system's mandate and no longer work at the system as of Sept. 23, according to system spokesperson Alexandra Langan.
- 13. Winston-Salem, N.C.-based Novant Health fired about 175 employees for not complying with the system's COVID-19 vaccination program after an unpaid five-day suspension.
- 14. As of Sept. 23, 66 employees had left Brewer-based Northern Light Health because of the vaccination requirement, according to system spokesperson Karen Cashman.
- 15. As of Sept. 23, 58 of Portland-based MaineHealth's 23,000 staff members had resigned and cited the vaccination requirement as among the reasons for their decision, system spokesperson Caroline Cornish told Becker's.
- 16. Seventy-two unvaccinated workers were terminated from Winchester, Va.-based Valley Health.
- 17. About 60 employees resigned from their jobs at UNC Health, citing the Chapel Hill, N.C.-based system's vaccination requirement, system spokesperson Alan Wolf confirmed to Becker's Sept. 21.
- 18. By Sept. 15, the vaccination requirement deadline, Morehead, Ky.-based St. Claire HealthCare had fired 23 employees for noncompliance, hospital spokesperson Amy Riddle confirmed to Becker's.
- 19. Med Center Health in Bowling Green, Ky., said 180 staff members were terminated because of its vaccination requirement.
- 20. After a two-week unpaid suspension ending Sept. 14, 125 employees at IU Health left the Indianapolis-based organization after refusing to be vaccinated.
- 21. Eleven Olean (N.Y.) General Hospital workers resigned because of the state's vaccination mandate, which requires healthcare workers at hospitals and nursing homes to receive their first vaccine dose by Sept. 27.
- 22. Lewis County Health System, a single-hospital system in Lowville, N.Y., said it would temporarily close its maternity unit after 30 staff resigned over the state's vaccination mandate.
- 23. Tidelands Health fired one of its employees for not complying with the Georgetown, S.C.-based system's vaccination mandate.
- 24. Charleston-based Medical University of South Carolina Health fired five of its employees for not complying with its vaccination mandate.
- 25. West Orange, N.J.-based RWJBarnabas Health fired six workers for not complying with its vaccination mandate.
- 26. At Houston Methodist, 153 employees either resigned during a two-week suspension period or were terminated for noncompliance with its vaccination mandate.
Florida fines county $3.5M for violating vaccine mandate ban The Florida Department of Health issued its first fine to a county that allegedly violated the state’s ban on vaccine mandates, the department announced this week. Leon County, which includes the capital of Tallahassee, balked at the $3.5 million fine, claiming its vaccination requirement and subsequent firing of 14 employees were legal and accused Gov. Ron DeSantis of being political. "The governor’s position in this instance, unfortunately, appears to be less of a public health strategy and more about political strategy," Leon County Administrator Vincent Long said. DeSantis said Tuesday, "No one should lose their job because of COVID shots," while announcing the fine on Twitter. "We must protect the jobs of Floridians and preserve the ability of Floridians to make their own decisions regarding what shots to take." The state said the county had violated Florida's "vaccine passport" law, which prohibits businesses and governments from requiring people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination. "These are people that, presumably, have been serving throughout this whole time and now all of a sudden they’re basically getting kicked to the curb," DeSantis said in a news conference about the fired employees. The law can result in $5,000 per violation. "It is unacceptable that Leon County violated Florida law, infringed on current and former employees’ medical privacy, and fired loyal public servants because of their personal health decisions," DeSantis spokesperson Taryn Fenske said in a release. "Governor DeSantis will continue fighting for Floridians’ rights and the Florida Department of Health will continue to enforce the law."
The governor of Texas bars Covid vaccine mandates. - Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas issued a broad executive order on Monday that bars virtually any coronavirus vaccine mandate in the state.Mr. Abbott, a Republican, has been among the most vocal political leaders in the United States opposing vaccine mandates. His latest executive order includes private employers, which had been exempt from previous edicts against the mandates.“No entity in Texas can compel receipt of a Covid-19 vaccine by any individual, including an employee or a consumer, who objects to such vaccination for any reason of personal conscience, based on a religious belief, or for medical reasons, including prior recovery from Covid-19,” the order states. “I hereby suspend all relevant statutes to the extent necessary to enforce this prohibition.”The order acknowledges that “vaccines are strongly encouraged for those eligible to receive one, but must always be voluntary for Texans.” Shortly after that order was signed, Facebook, which employs more than 2,000 people in the state, said in a statement it was reviewing the order “and our company vaccine policy currently remains unchanged.” Courts in the United States have a long history of upholding vaccine mandates, Professor Ragavan said, in part, because people who oppose such mandates are not the only individuals whose rights the courts take into account. “I may choose not to get treatment for cancer, but when it’s a case of an infectious disease, your freedom has the ability to affect someone else.”The order may be hard to enforce because of its broad scope and timing, said Josh Blackman, a constitutional law professor at South Texas College of Law Houston. Companies that operate in multiple states will have to wrestle with whether it applies to them merely by having some operations in Texas, he said.Some businesses may face “severe financial risk” if they already have mandates in place, said Mr. Blackman.The order ratchets up an already deeply polarizing debate. On one side is President Biden, who has mandated shots for health care workers, federal contractors and the vast majority of federal workers, and has ordered all private employers with 100 workers or more to require their workers to be vaccinated or undergo frequent testing.
A Republican candidate for Texas governor cancels events after Covid exposure. - Allen West, the former Republican congressman who is challenging Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas for his seat, has suspended in-person events because he developed Covid symptoms after his wife tested positive for coronavirus on Friday.Mr. West, who is not vaccinated, said in a Twitter thread on Saturday that he was experiencing “a low grade fever and light body aches.” He said he was taking ivermectin, a drug used to treat parasites that health experts say is not effective against the virus, and hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug which the Food and Drug Administration has cautioned against using.Mr. West’s wife, Angela West, is vaccinated, he said.On Thursday, Mr. West spoke at a fund-raising event inside a yacht club near Houston, where, in photos posted online, almost no one could be seen wearing a mask. Mr. West did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday.
Big businesses are siding against Texas in mandate fight - The fight over vaccine mandates between the White House and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is putting businesses in the middle. But many are picking the White House’s preferred policy. American Airlines and Southwest Airlines, which are both based in the Lone Star State, say they will defy Abbott’s order that no business in the state can impose a vaccine mandate on employees or customers and comply with President Biden’s mandate that all companies with at least 100 employees require vaccines or weekly testing for employees. Other companies based in Texas have already imposed vaccine mandates and have given no indication they will change their positions in the wake of Abbott’s executive order. Texas-based Dell Technologies has required vaccinations or testing since January. A few major technology companies not based in Texas do have hubs in Austin, like Google and Facebook, and already require employees be vaccinated. Southwest downplayed any fight with the home-state governor, saying Biden’s order “superseded any state mandate or law.” The airline has ordered its thousands of employees to be vaccinated by Dec. 8. American Airlines also said it believes a federal mandate supersedes state laws. Witold Henisz, the Deloitte & Touche professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, said the conflicting orders are a “hassle.” He also said that most big corporations favor vaccine mandates, since it makes it easier for them to do business. That will put them on the side of Biden and against Abbott, even if they avoid advertising a political stance “The large companies — the airlines, the big retailers — they want to get to the point where it’s safe for their employees to come in. So they’re overall happy with the mandate, and this political appeal from Abbott is the last thing they wanted. It’s a hassle for them,” Henisz said. The Business Roundtable, which represents CEOs, warned against state and local governments getting in the way of companies keeping their workers safe.
Community Clinics Shouldered Much of the Vaccine Rollout. Many Haven’t Been Paid.Community clinics in California say they haven’t been paid for at least 1 million covid-19 vaccine doses given since January, creating a “massive cash flow problem” for some and complicating efforts to retain staff. Clinics in other states, including Michigan and Mississippi, are also awaiting payment. The delays stem from the distinct way federally qualified health centers are reimbursed for care under Medicaid, the joint federal-state program providing health coverage for low-income people. Some centers are not even billing for the shots because they say it’s too complicated. Clinics are owed tens of millions of dollars, at minimum, for shots they’ve given since the vaccines received emergency authorization. Of the roughly 70,000 doses administered by La ClÃnica de la Raza, an organization with more than 30 Bay Area locations, almost none of those costs have been reimbursed, chief financial officer Susan Moore said. And the clinics don’t expect to receive reimbursement for around half of those shots because they were administered to the community without collecting insurance information. The extra staff time and supplies were covered with grant money. The Biden administration has relied on the clinics to boost vaccination rates among racial and ethnic minorities and people living in poverty. Health centers have administered nearly 15 million vaccine doses, federal data shows, although it is unclear how many of those were given during a patient visit. Under federal law, the government pays health centers a set rate for patient visits, each potentially costing hundreds of dollars. Many state Medicaid agencies have said that if a patient receives a covid shot along with other care, the clinic’s cost to give the vaccine is covered as part of its normal payment rate. Troubles getting paid occur when the covid vaccination is the only service provided, officials say, such as during a mass immunization clinic. During large-scale vaccine events, “we’re usually administering vaccines without that broader service,” said Phillip Bergquist, chief operating officer of the Michigan Primary Care Association, which lobbies for health centers. Some states have told health centers they can bill Medicaid separately for each dose administered in that situation, such as at the Medicare payment level of approximately $40 per shot. But others, like Michigan and California, have endured a months-long process with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to devise a payment formula for how much it costs a clinic to give a shot.
Major Insurers Running Billions of Dollars Behind on Payments to Hospitals and Doctors - Anthem Blue Cross, the country’s second-biggest health insurance company, is behind on billions of dollars in payments owed to hospitals and doctors because of onerous new reimbursement rules, computer problems and mishandled claims, say hospital officials in multiple states.Anthem, like other big insurers, is using the covid-19 crisis as cover to institute “egregious” policies that harm patients and pinch hospital finances, said Molly Smith, group vice president at the American Hospital Association. “There’s this sense of ‘Everyone’s distracted. We can get this through,’” she said.Hospitals are also dealing with a spike in retroactive claims denials by UnitedHealthcare, the biggest health insurer, for emergency department care, AHA says.Disputes between insurers and hospitals are nothing new. But this fight sticks more patients in the middle, worried they’ll have to pay unresolved claims. Hospitals say it is hurting their finances as many cope with covid surges — even after the industry has received tens of billions of dollars in emergency assistance from the federal government.“We recognize there have been some challenges” to prompt payments caused by claims-processing changes and “a new set of dynamics” amid the pandemic, Anthem spokesperson Colin Manning said in an email. “We apologize for any delays or inconvenience this may have caused.”Virginia law requires insurers to pay claims within 40 days. In a Sept. 24 letter to state insurance regulators, VCU Health, a system that operates a large teaching hospital in Richmond associated with Virginia Commonwealth University, said Anthem owes it $385 million. More than 40% of the claims are more than 90 days old, VCU said.For all Virginia hospitals, Anthem’s late, unpaid claims amount to “hundreds of millions of dollars,” the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association said in a June 23 letter to state regulators.Nationwide, the payment delays “are creating an untenable situation,” the American Hospital Association said in a Sept. 9 letter to Anthem CEO Gail Boudreaux. “Patients are facing greater hurdles to accessing care; clinicians are burning out on unnecessary administrative tasks; and the system is straining to finance the personnel and supplies” needed to fight covid.Complaints about Anthem extend “from sea to shining sea, from New Hampshire to California,” AHA CEO Rick Pollack told KHN.Substantial payment delays can be seen on Anthem’s books. On June 30, 2019, before the pandemic, 43% of the insurer’s medical bills for that quarter were unpaid, according to regulatory filings. Two years later that figure had risen to 53% — a difference of $2.5 billion. Anthem profits were $4.6 billion in 2020 and $3.5 billion in the first half of 2021.
Behind the far-right, anti-vaccine demonstrations in New York City - On Monday, October 4, a right-wing demonstration was staged in New York City in opposition to the federal upholding of a citywide vaccine mandate covering approximately 150,000 Department of Education (DOE) workers. Several hundred people took part, marching five miles from the DOE headquarters in Downtown Brooklyn, across the Brooklyn Bridge to the Australian Consulate in midtown Manhattan. The protest is part of a string of far-right demonstrations in the city which have been seized upon to legitimize unpopular anti-vaccination and anti-science policies. The New York Times has largely been silent on the local right-wing rallies, instead focusing on the narrative that anti-vaccination sentiments are primarily associated with other, more conservative states in the country. The tabloid NYC news media on the other hand, particularly the New York Post of billionaire Rupert Murdoch, has aggressively attempted to present such protests as being representative of a mass movement in support of scrapping any and all life-saving measures against the pandemic, in the name of “freedom.” The purpose of this campaign is the further legitimization of anti-science and forcing the framework of political discourse toward the far right.A video circulated on social media of the October 4 march showed protesters violently flipping over a pop-up tent belonging to a mobile COVID testing unit near Union Square. Surrounding crowds can be heard booing the marchers as a police officer is seen passively standing by the scene, preventing angry onlookers from intervening against the violent provocation. The far-right Tea Party posted several videos of the event on its organization’s website, which featured shots of police and fire officers saluting and clapping for the demonstrators as they marched by. Unlike similar rallies since the summer, the October 4 event was explicitly organized in solidarity with far-right, anti-lockdown riots in Australia which began last month, and which have been heavily promoted by the Murdoch-owned press in his native country. The New York demonstrators waved Australian and American flags, shouting slogans opposing vaccinations and lockdowns in the US and overseas. There has been a legal battle against the implementation of vaccine mandates in the state of New York, with several lawsuits and actions being promoted to national attention. In all but a few instances, these were carried out by organizations closely associated with far-right and fascistic anti-lockdown, masking and vaccination groups within the orbit of the Republican Party on a local, state and national level.
Chicago Police Union Head Urges Members To Defy Vaccine Mandate, Warns Force To Shrink 50% This Weekend -The head of the Chicago police officers union on Tuesday called on its members to refuse to comply with the city’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, which is set to take effect on Friday.“Do not fill out the portal information,” Chicago Fraternal Order of Police President John Catanzara said in a video to officers posted on YouTube.“I’ve made my status very clear as far as the vaccine, but I do not believe the city has the authority to mandate that to anybody—let alone that information about your medical history.”According to Catanzara, the police union is preparing a lawsuit against the city if Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s administration attempts to enforce the mandate, which requires city workers to report their vaccine status by Friday or be placed on a “no-pay” status.“It’s safe to say that the city of Chicago will have a police force at 50 percent or less for this weekend coming up,” Catanzara said.The Epoch Times has contacted Lightfoot’s office for comment.“I can guarantee you that no-pay status will not last more than 30 days,” Catanzara said on Tuesday. “There’s no way they’re going to be able to sustain a police department workforce at 50 percent capacity or less for more than seven days without something budging.”
Chicago’s mayor and the city’s largest police union clash over vaccinations.--A clash between Mayor Lori Lightfoot of Chicago and the head of the city’s largest police union over coronavirus vaccinations intensified on Friday as the city filed a complaint against the union, arguing that it was threatening an illegal strike. City employees in Chicago are required to report their vaccination status by the end of Friday, but John Catanzara, the president of the Fraternal Order of Police in Chicago, has urged police officers to ignore the order and risk discipline or loss of pay. Employees who are not vaccinated will be subject to twice-weekly testing, but vaccinations are not required. Mr. Catanzara released a video on Tuesday predicting that Chicago police officers would not report to work because of the policy. He said that if a large number of police officers refuse to submit to testing or reporting their vaccination status to the city, “it’s safe to say the city of Chicago will have a police force at 50 percent or less for this weekend coming up.” “Whatever happens because of the manpower issue, that falls at the mayor’s doorstep,” he added. He escalated the dispute on Thursday, releasing another video that urged officers not to comply with any direct orders from their supervisors to provide their vaccination status in an online portal. But, on Friday, the police union said in a statement: “President John Catanzara has never engaged in, supported, or encouraged a work stoppage.” The police union also announced that it had filed its own legal request for the courts to hear the case. Ms. Lightfoot, who has often faced resistance from Mr. Catanzara since taking office in 2019, said in a statement on Friday that his actions threatened public safety. “As Chicago’s mayor, I cannot and will not stand idly by while the rhetoric of conspiracy theorists threatens the health and safety of Chicago’s residents and first responders,” Ms. Lightfoot said in a statement. “President Catanzara has time and again deliberately misled our police officers by lying about the requirements of the policy and falsely claiming that there will be no repercussions if officers are insubordinate and refuse to follow a city and department directive or order.” On Friday evening, a judge in Cook County ordered Mr. Catanzara to refrain from making additional statements on social media encouraging police officers to refuse to enter their vaccination status in the city portal. A strike from the police union is illegal under both state law and the union’s contract with the city, Ms. Lightfoot said.
62 percent of police deaths last year were COVID-19-related: analysis - COVID-19 accounted for more than 66 percent of all law enforcement deaths in the line of duty in 2020 and 2021, according to newly compiled statistics. The report from the Officer Down Memorial Page found that more law enforcement officers died from COVID-19 than from every other cause combined since the pandemic began in early 2020. In 2020, 245 officers died from COVID-19, more than from gunfire, automobile crashes and other illnesses. "It's taken a definite toll," Vernon Stanforth, sheriff in Fayette County, Ohio, and president of the National Sheriffs' Association, told ABC News. "Anytime there's a line of duty death there, it impacts the entire agency and the entire law enforcement community."So far in 2021, 228 law enforcement deaths have been recorded as a result of COVID-19 related illness, out of 356 deaths total. Patrick Montuore, the executive director of the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial, told Bay News 9 that the group had to create a special task force to determine whether officers "suffered from the effects of COVID based on their actions and duties." Montuore said last year's death toll was the highest in 50 years, adding that the "silent killer" of COVID-19 was still on the offensive. "It's climbing at a time when it should be decreasing with the knowledge, the expertise, the amount of training and education," he said, according to Bay News 9. However, The New York Times reported that despite the death toll from COVID-19, police unions are fighting vaccine mandates.
Phone Service in a Prison Environment - RE: The High Cost of Phone Calls in Prisons Generates $1.4 Billion a Year, Disproportionately Driving Women and People of Color Into Debt (businessinsider.com) It has been a while since I have tackled issues with the prison system in the US. Besides it being heavily skewed towards the color of a prisoner and the funding they possess to mount a defense; once convicted and imprisoned, the screwing over the prisoner increases. If they go to trial, the sentence is enhanced (the court does not like to work). Once at the prison, a prisoner’s family usually attempts to maintain contact either by phone or by visits if they can afford to do either. Family contact is an important factor in maintaining some degree of sanity besides having funds to buy snacks, other items, a small TV with a transparent case, and access to books.Typically, a prisoner is relocated a distance away from the last area of residence requiring a 2 to 4 hour trip. Long distance phone calls can be made using the prison’s negotiated commercial system which will charge by the minute. The prison negotiates the rate and will take a cut of the generated revenue. The economic beatings continue after sentencing and includes the family who must comply if they wish to maintain contact. Family contact is a vital part of reform. Many law abiding citizens have no problem spending an ~$35,000 per year to house a prisoner of which a majority percentage are minority. Yet, they will against better schools in areas needing them, job training, lower cost or no cost healthcare, subsidizing housing and food, etc. which do not come close to the cost of prisons. The potential there is too spend money which will increase the productivity of citizensIn the end, they still pay. Except now it is for housing prisoners. What is key to rehabilitation is maintaining contact with family through phone calls, visitations, letters, etc. Most of the time, prison is not forever and there neds to e a pace and person one can turn too.Prison phone contracts follow a “commission” model, where the phone service provider pays a commission (kickback) to the contracting government agency, such as a state prison system or county jail. The kickbacks inflate the costs of prison and jail phone calls, which are paid by the families of prisoners. Once in prison, it is all about milking the prisoner and the family which may come to visit them. The once per week 15 minute call a prisoner makes to his family costs $2.40 in Michigan which has negotiated rates and kickbacks from the the company. In the costly states of California and Illinois, the 15 minute call goes for $1.23 and $1.05. In backwards South Carolina, the 15 minute call goes for $.82.Prison phone calls in Michigan at twice the rate of all three states is still not as bad as McConnell’s Kentucky which charges a family $5.70 for 15 minutes of conversation. Michigan recoups ~$10 million annually from prisoner phone calls. Kentucky does not have an obvious kickback in place.Intrastate calls are unregulated as the result of the DC COA overruling laws allowing the FCC to regulate prison phone calls.
Most Americans haven't sent or received a personal letter in more than five years: poll - The majority of Americans polled in a new CBS News survey said they haven't sent a handwritten letter in the mail in over five years.Thirty-five percent of the 1,717 respondents in the poll, conducted between September 14-20, said it had been at least half a decade since they wrote a personal letter.The second-highest percentage of people polled, 31 percent, fell into the category of 12 months or less of not sending such letters. Sixteen percent of respondents said that it had been between one and five years since they'd mailed a personal letter, while 15 percent said they never had,according to poll results published by CBS News.The percentages were essentially the same as when respondents were asked when the last time was that they had received a letter, with 35 percent saying it was either over five years ago or within the past year.Older and younger people responded similarly when asked when they had written personal letters in recent years, however, those aged 18-44 were far more likely to have never sent a letter than their counterparts. Women were also found to be more recent letter writers.
COVID-19 cases soared among kids as they returned to school - September was the month many children returned back to school, and COVID-19 cases spiked among this age group at that time. In the last two weeks of September, there was a 6 percent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases among children, a worrying statistic as schools reopen and a vaccine for children under 12 is still pending approval, The New York Post reports, citing data from according to the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP). More than 6 million children have contracted the virus since the pandemic began. Between Sept. 3 and Sept. 30, 1.1 million children got COVID-19 – 20 percent of children’s COVID cases occurred around the time of school reopenings, according to AAP. Since July, there has been a steady increase in COVID-19 cases in children that went from about 38,000 cases in July 22 to 180,000 mid-August, The Wall Street Journalreported, citing the AAP. Children as young as 15 have succumbed to the virus, according to an NBC News report, and between Sept. 4 and Oct. 2, the number of children’s deaths totaled 41. While there are concerns about how children are contracting COVID-19, .01 percent of child cases of COVID-19 have ended in death in 2021, according to AAP. Between July and October of this year, the number of deaths from COVID-19 that were of children jumped from .06 percent to .09 percent, according to AAP. As Changing America previously reported, it was reported that children under the age of 12 make up 6 percent of hospitalizations and one-sixth of the county’s coronavirus cases in Maricopa County in Arizona in August. Children under the age of 18 make up about 40 percent of the population and more than 14,000 cases are among children in Tennessee.
Parent sues school district after child contracts COVID-19 — A parent has sued a southeastern Wisconsin school district after her son contracted COVID-19 from a classmate. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that Shannon Jensen filed the lawsuit in federal court against the Waukesha School District and school board on Oct. 5. Jensen is seeking an injunction ordering the district to comply with U.S. Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 guidelines.According to the lawsuit, the board in May removed a student mask requirement and other COVID-19 mitigation measures. One of Jensen’s son’s classmates came to school with symptoms in September and didn’t wear a mask. Jensen’s son was seated next to the sick student and was wearing a mask but still became infected. Jensen’s other two sons later tested positive as well.School Board President Joseph Como declined comment on the lawsuit.
Updates: COVID-19 cases in Ohio schools - Every Thursday afternoon, the Ohio Department of Health releases updated COVID-19 cases involving students and staff. The Department of Health says weekly case counts include full-time or part-time students and staff members who have tested positive or been diagnosed with COVID-19. Staff members include teachers, administrators, support staff, and coaches, the state says. In recent weeks, there has been a drop in reported cases within schools. In figures released Oct. 14, there were 4,796 new cases reported among students and 654 new cases among staff, down from the previous week when there were 5,986 new cases reported among students and 1,061 cases among staff. Cases are down from a peak of 8,524 the week prior and 1,191 cases among staff the week of Sept. 16.The four largest districts in the state — Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Toledo — were the only districts to report more than 100 new cases on Oct. 14. Toledo had the most with 165 cases between students and staff.The state of Ohio will next update its dashboard on Oct. 21. Northeast Ohio school COVID-19 cases: This chart provides a week-to-week look at student and staff COVID-19 cases in the 10 largest districts in the area.
Father of 10 dies, 12-year-old in ICU after major COVID-19 outbreak at Baltimore elementary-middle school --James Summers IV, a father of 10 children from Baltimore, Maryland died from COVID-19 on October 3. Summers caught the virus after his son, a student in Baltimore City Public Schools (BCPS), was exposed to COVID-19 at school and brought it home.The outbreak at Cherry Hill Elementary Middle School, which included at least 14 positive cases at the school in a 10-day period, also led to the hospitalization of a 12-year-old student in an intensive care unit (ICU). According to local news reports, the 12-year-old student, whose name is Janiya, has suffered acute kidney failure among other medical issues. “She ended up getting sick and the symptoms just got worse,” her mother, Jacorey Barney, told WBFF. “I honestly did not know that she was exposed until it was too late. We were already here at Johns Hopkins.”Another Cherry Hill parent, Tina Washington, reported to WBFF that three of her children, including a baby boy, have COVID-19 symptoms. “One of the teachers that my daughter said wasn’t coming to school was her homeroom teacher. And that probably was the teacher that had it... They’re waiting to the last minute to notify parents,” said Washington.Summers wrote in a Facebook post two days before his death, “My son is a 7th grade student who caught covid in the class for the lack of testing. He came home sick and affected my other nine kids. Now I am in the ICU unable to breathe for 3 week [sic] on my own and I am pissed. The school should be shut down.”Concerned Cherry Hill parents have repeated the demand for the shutdown of the school in the wake of the outbreak. In response, city schools spokesman Austin Riley rejected closures, telling WBFF, “So, what we’re doing right now is we are keeping our buildings open, but we will shut down grade levels, we will shut down classrooms.” Riley declared the city’s completely inadequate once weekly, voluntary testing and quarantine protocols as sufficient. “We have rolling groups of students that are going on and off quarantine. So, again, as we provide our weekly screenings to determine where the presence of COVID-19 may be in different classrooms, as we identify students that test positive or close contacts, they’re going on quarantine.”
More than 100 Florida educators and two dozen students have died of COVID-19 since reopening of schools in August - The Florida Education Association revealed this week, in its “Safe Schools Report,” an appalling increase in COVID-19 deaths and infections among educators and students in the state compared to the same period last year. According to the data, the number of Florida children who have died from COVID-19 currently stands at 24 compared to 10 last year. The number of active educator coronavirus deaths has already more than doubled from 46 last year to a staggering 102 thus far. The victims include teachers, bus drivers, custodians and school nurses. Additional information in the report testifies to the dangerous spread of the virus in schools. The number of confirmed Florida students and educators who have tested positive during the pandemic grew from 116,881 in 2020-2021 to 165,638 today. The number of full closings of school campuses has risen from 21 to 31. Meanwhile, the number of staff and students in quarantine for both respective school years rose 209 times, from 1,235 last year to 258,481 so far this year. Among those who have tragically succumbed to the virus is Greg Myers, a 64-year-old former support teacher from Crestview High School in Okaloosa County. Myers died last week after battling with COVID-19 complications for several weeks and being hospitalized in an intensive care unit (ICU). In mid-September, 24-year-old D’Anthony Dorsey, a marine biology teacher at Auburndale High School in Polk County died due to complications from the disease. Shortly before Dorsey’s death, his mother sent a message to WFLA News urging elected officials to reverse their stance on mask mandates in schools, which Governor Ron DeSantis and the Republican-controlled legislature have prohibited. His mother said Dorsey had no comorbidities and had been a long-time athlete. “He’s young and healthy and look what happened,” she said. COVID-19 has taken a particularly devastating toll on school staff in Polk County, with the region making up nearly a quarter of the state’s educator deaths. The FEA’s report added seven more Polk County Public Schools employees that have died from COVID-19 this past month, bringing the total to at least 16 known deaths from the virus since school began August 10. Despite the grim uptick in deaths, district officials have obstinately rebuffed calls for even a mask mandate on campuses. Like every local union in the state, the Polk County Education Association has not lifted a finger to mobilize educators to fight the homicidal mask policies, let alone shut down the campuses altogether and halt the spread of the disease.
Knoxville, Tennessee, schools ordered to enforce mask mandate as extremist groups weaponize their children - On Tuesday, U.S. District Judge J. Ronnie Greer ordered Knox County Schools (KCS) in Tennessee to continue enforcing a mask mandate he had ordered in September, while allowing exemptions with medical documentation and proof that the exemption was in place the previous school year. Following the initial ruling, which had only allowed two exemptions—autism and tracheotomies—the Knox County School Board had requested 60 additional medical exemptions in a list that was so extensive it would have essentially voided Judge Greer’s initial ruling if it had been accepted. In his latest ruling, the judge admonished the Knox County School Board for its “lack of foresight” at the previous hearing when it had an opportunity to weigh in on what a mask mandate should look like in the district. He noted that the board’s “cry of manifest injustice is therefore at best meritless and at worst disingenuous,” as the district had chosen not to offer a solution to meet reasonable accommodations guaranteed by the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA) when invited to by the court. Judge Greer’s September 24 order that masks must be worn in county public schools came as COVID-19 cases surged to unprecedented levels in East Tennessee as a result of the removal or curtailment of all mitigation measures. For example, KCS had removed all mitigation protocols in schools at the beginning of the school year. Moreover, on August 16, Tennessee’s Republican Governor Bill Lee had passed an executive order allowing parents to opt out of district mask mandates. The immediate occasion for Greer’s order was a filing of lawsuits by four families of children with special needs. The federal judge cited Section 504 of ADA, which protects children with disabilities from exclusion and unequal treatment in schools, saying that a mask mandate is a “reasonable accommodation” that allows students with disabilities to participate in the benefits of KCS’s services, programs or activities. In his ruling, the judge condemned the school board’s oversight of safety in schools, saying, “the accommodations currently in place against COVID-19 in Knox County Schools are too hazardously ineffective.” This is a huge understatement. According to testimony from the medical community, cases “skyrocketed” 600 percent within weeks of schools reopening, more than at any time during the pandemic. Judge Greer cast doubt on the veracity of KCS’s COVID-19 data tracking, stating, “from almost every angle, the record indicates that infections among school-age children in Knox County are charting an upward trajectory. Yet by the Knox County Board of Education’s own tally, the rate of infections is infinitesimal.”
The Hot New Back-to-School Accessory? An Air Quality Monitor. NYT -- When Lizzie Rothwell, an architect in Philadelphia, sent her son to third grade this fall, she stocked his blue L.L. Bean backpack with pencils, wide-ruled paper — and a portable carbon dioxide monitor.The device gave her a quick way to assess how much fresh air was flowing through the school. Low levels of CO2 would indicate that it was well-ventilated, reducing her son’s odds of catching the coronavirus.But she quickly discovered that during lunch, CO2 levels in the cafeteria rose to nearly double those recommended by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. She shared what she’d learned with the principal and asked if students could eat outside instead.“He expressed surprise that I had any data at all,” she said.Ms. Rothwell is one of a growing number of parents who are sneaking CO2 monitors into schools in a clandestine effort to make sure their children’s classrooms are safe. Aranet, which makes a monitor popular with parents, says orders have doubled since the new school year began.Some school systems have made the monitors part of their official pandemic precautions. New York City has distributed the devices to every public school, and the British government hasannounced plans to do likewise.But elsewhere, parents are taking matters into their own hands, sneaking in the monitors — which can cost a hundred dollars or more — in their children’s backpacks or pants pockets.Although the devices, which can be set to take readings every few minutes, work best when exposed to the open air, they can generate informative data as long as they are not completely sealed away, said Dr. Alex Huffman, an aerosol scientist at the University of Denver who has sent the monitors to school with his children. (He recommended leaving backpacks or pants pockets unzipped, or tucking the monitor into the mesh water-bottle pouch that is now standard on many backpacks.)
Texas school leader tells teachers to 'balance' Holocaust books with opposing views - A top administrator in Southlake, Texas, last week advised teachers that if they have a book about the Holocaust, they should have a book from an "opposing" perspective, NBC News reported, citing an audio recording. Gina Peddy, Carroll Independent School District's executive director of curriculum and instruction, made the comment during a training session on which books were allowed in classroom libraries. A staff member secretly recorded the meeting and shared it with NBC. "Just try to remember the concepts of [House Bill] 3979," Peddy said during the meeting, referring to a new Texas law that requires educators to present multiple viewpoints for "widely debated and currently controversial" issues, NBC reported. "And make sure that if you have a book on the Holocaust," Peddy continued, "that you have one that has an opposing, that has other perspectives.""How do you oppose the Holocaust?" one teacher asked. "Believe me, that's come up," Peddy said. Peddy also reassured teachers and told them not to worry. "We are in the middle of a political mess," she said in the recording. "And you are in the middle of a political mess. And so we just have to do the best that we can." “I do know that you feel like it’s putting you at risk,” she later said. “I do know that. But I also know that we’re going to do what’s best for our kids. And we’re going to stand behind you on this.” After the training session ended, a group of teachers gathered in a hallway to discuss what they heard. “I am offended as hell by somebody who says I should have an opposing view to the Holocaust in my library,” one teacher can be heard saying in the recording obtained by NBC News. “They don’t understand what they have done," another replied. "And they are going to lose incredible teachers, myself potentially being with them.” The meeting came in response to a parent's complaint after a fourth grade teacher kept an anti-racism book in her classroom. As a result, the school board voted to reprimand the teacher. The training came four days later, according to NBC.
After white students displayed Confederate flag at school, Black students suspended for planning protest -- Black students were suspended from their high school for planning a protest after another group of students came to school waving a Confederate flag. Last week, a group of students at Coosa High School in Rome, Ga., were filmed waving the Confederate flag and hurling racial slurs. Newsweek reported that the four students filmed were carrying the Confederate flag in favor of "farm day" on school spirit day, which led up to homecoming.They did not face any repercussions. In response, many students said the school did not do much to reprimand the students carrying the flag, and a protest was planned to bring awareness to the problem,CBS 46 Atlanta reported.. However, the school administration suspended several students who were planning the protest. Student protesters told CBS 46 that only Black students were suspended. "The administration is aware of tomorrow's planned protest," the administrator said over the intercom before the planned demonstration. "Police will be present here at school and if students insist on encouraging this kind of activity they will be disciplined for encouraging unrest." Two white students participating in the Friday protest were not suspended, even though they claimed to be as disruptive as the Black students, CBS reported.
As student violence surges, educators say mental health issues are 'absolutely through the roof' and draining teachers - At a Florida middle school, 87 students have gotten in physical fights since school began last month.At an Illinois high school, 70 students have been suspended for violent altercations, the superintendent said. At a New York high school, two students were cut during an altercation, causing parents to demand more safety agents.At a Kentucky lower school, a counselor said she has assessed 26 students ages eight through 10 for suicide risk since May.And it's only October. "We just confiscated a gun from a 10-year-old," Anna Fusco, president of the Broward Teachers Union in Florida, told Insider."First-graders slapped a teacher in the face, second-graders slapped a teacher in the face, middle schoolers corralled around a teacher and shoved her," she said. "Every single day I get a story from an educator."On Friday, the nation's largest teachers union said social media has "helped create a culture of fear and violence with educators as targets," in a letter addressed to Facebook, TikTok, and Twitter that was shared with The Wall Street Journal. Union leaders referenced the "devious lick" challenge that led students to vandalize and steal school property, as well as the "slap a teacher" challenge. TikTok removed hashtags and content related to devious lick in September. School staff members across the country told Insider they are seeing surges in student outbursts, from vandalism and verbal altercations to gun violence and slashing.Fusco said teachers have been trained on "how to handle a shooter when he comes in," but not on preventing violence long-term. "All our districts care about is getting the curriculum, pounding on the academics," she told Insider. "There's nowhere near the level of training that can really make a vast difference in a student."
Tennessee educators give full support to October 15 global school strike - The Tennessee Educators Rank-and-File Safety Committee stands in solidarity with parents, educators, and all workers striking on October 15 against unsafe conditions in schools in the United Kingdom and globally due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Parents and teachers all over the world must join together to fight the herd immunity strategy of the ruling elite which is killing thousands of people every day. As reported by the World Socialist Web Site, 164 children have died in the two months since schools in the US fully reopened for in-person learning. This amounts to an average of three school-aged children dying every day. Cases of COVID-19 are at or exceeding the numbers infected during the winter surge in the US, with upwards of 2,000 people dying from the virus every day.Despite the numbers of sick and dying, some state governors and legislatures in the South are doing away with state-mandated mitigation protocols in schools. Individual school districts are left to make their own decisions about what protections, if any, will be made available in schools to protect children, teachers, support personnel, and bus drivers. This has led to the politicization of the health and safety of our children. Individual families are taking school districts to court in order to protect children with special needs. Federal judges have ruled in favor of mask mandates in schools, but only the largest school districts have brought these cases to court. While schools are reopening and record cases of COVID-19 are flooding hospitals across the country, the teachers unions have remained silent about the mass death caused by the virus. Union leaders join the chorus of the Democratic Party to reopen schools “safely” even though material proof that this is not possible is amply provided on a daily basis.To add insult to injury, American Federation of Teachers (AFT) President Randi Weingarten held a public town hall with members of Open Schools USA, an organization that vehemently opposes masking in schools and the vaccination of children against COVID-19, and which seeks to defund public schools by siphoning off public money into private and charter schools. Not only is the president of the nation’s second largest teachers’ union unwilling to advocate for safe working conditions for her members, but she is legitimizing a right-wing, anti-scientific organization which would happily put public school teachers out of work and further endanger millions of children.
Without the right curriculum, educators are in for a post-pandemic slog - Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly 70 percent of educators complained that they didn’t have regular access to high-quality instructional materials, and many spent as much as 12 hours each week searching for materials or creating their own, time that could have been spent teaching. That’s a lost opportunity when reports have shown that improving the quality of curriculum is 40 times more cost-effective than class-size reduction at increasing student achievement.Several reasons are behind the lack of effective teaching materials. Teacher preparation institutions have been flagged for fomenting the misconception “that ‘authentic’ teaching occurs only when teachers create their own lessons … placing them in a barely tenable position, where they are forced to cobble together curricula for each class of each day, day after day, with inadequate expertise or support to do so well,” according to the Johns Hopkins Institute for Education. But another, more immediately curable cause is the lack of access to available and proven materials. It seems such an obvious precondition for student and teacher success, especially now when there is real appreciation for and optimism in a return to in-person teaching. But without quality instructional materials, our teachers are being set up for a post-pandemic slog that will increase stressors, push even more teachers out the door and poorly serve our children. While local districts ultimately manage curriculum adoptions, states can make it easier. What educators need now at the front end of the school year is easy access to materials aligned to individual state standards with a proven track record of success in improving learning. What all states need are examples pointing the way. At least three states are laying the foundation for student success with a strong emphasis on getting high-quality instructional programs into the hands of teachers as the pandemic recedes into the rearview mirror and the focus shifts to getting students back on grade level.Mississippi has established a clearinghouse of high-quality instructional materials and a pilot program to empower local educators in selecting quality curriculum. Nebraska offers its own version of a clearinghouse, which provides information on the selection of quality resources plus a map displaying a district-level look at which materials are in use across the state. And New Mexico has a detailed state website and implementation guide for high-quality materials along with educator reviews of adopted materials.These states couldn’t be more diverse in their politics and cultures, and yet they are united and in lockstep on that most American of principles: that children, wherever they live in the country, deserve an excellent public education. Armed with proven teaching materials, educators are a step closer to that goal.
COVID-19 outbreaks at NYU and Columbia trigger opposition to unsafe campus reopening -Over the last month, New York University (NYU) and Columbia University, two of the largest universities in New York City, have experienced significant outbreaks of the COVID-19 virus among students, faculty, and staff. Hundreds of people at both universities have contracted COVID-19 as a result of the profit-driven decisions of administrators to hold in-person instruction amidst the Delta variant-fueled resurgence of the deadly pandemic. Despite a high vaccination rate at NYU, the number of coronavirus cases at the university has steadily increased since the beginning of the fall semester. According to NYU’s weekly COVID-19 testing data, there have been at least 540 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the university community since August 30. This number is undoubtedly an underrepresentation of the true extent of the outbreak on campus. NYU’s reported case numbers are based on the university’s voluntary testing program and COVID-19 tests administered outside of the university. These outside tests are only counted by NYU if they are reported by students and staff to the university’s COVID-19 Prevention & Response Team. The available data is an exposure of the fallacy of the university’s guidelines for a “safe reopening.” The university’s “safety” policies are nothing more than pseudo-scientific nonsense, based on the lie that vaccination and mask mandates alone can prevent infection and end the pandemic. The strategy of mitigation, promoted by the Democratic Party, ultimately has the same result as the herd immunity strategy promoted by the far-right—the proliferation of COVID-19, dominated by the more transmissible and lethal Delta variant. NYU, with a student population of over 50,000, has abandoned any enforcement of social distancing inside and outside of NYU buildings and has eliminated its mandatory testing program for the vast majority of students, faculty and staff. Classes are being held at capacity—some with more than 100 students in attendance—and student-led organizations and clubs are allowed, even encouraged, to hold in-person events with dozens of attendees. The university has made little effort to warn students, faculty and staff of the extent of the outbreak on campus. Early findings in a study being conducted by chemistry professors at NYU’s College of Arts and Sciences indicate that the quality of air circulation in NYU classrooms is not adequate for preventing the spread of COVID-19. Levels of carbon dioxide in classrooms have been found to be higher than what is recommended by experts. A deceptive public memo from September 21, written by NYU Provost Katherine Fleming, Executive Vice President Martin Dorph and the Executive Leader of the university’s COVID-19 Response Team boasted that in early-September, “NYU administered nearly 3,500 tests and had a positivity rate of 1.39%. These results suggest that NYU’s test positivity remains low (by way of comparison, NYC’s rate is approximately 3%) and is in line with what we have seen at other universities.” Data from the official New York City COVID dashboard completely contradicts the claim that infection transmission levels at NYU have ever been at an acceptable level. In fact, through the entire month of September, Manhattan’s infection levels never sank below 120 positive cases per 100,000 residents. This figure is well beyond the 100 out of 100,000 threshold of “high” community transmission outlined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) guidelines.
UNC Chapel Hill cancels classes after student's death, report of attempted suicide - The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill canceled Tuesday's classes as police investigate a student's death and another attempted suicide over the weekend, WRAL reported. Instead, the students will have a wellness day on World Mental Health Day, according to a statement from university Chancellor Kevin Guskiewicz. "We are in the middle of a mental health crisis, both on our campus and across our nation, and we are aware that college-aged students carry an increased risk of suicide," he said. "This crisis has directly impacted members of our community — especially with the passing of two students on campus in the past month." Campus police responded to an attempted suicide early Sunday morning. And on Saturday, another student was reported dead in a residence hall. According to the National Institute of Mental Health, suicide is the leading cause of death among people age 15 to 34. Suicides have increased during the pandemic lockdowns, contributing to mental health crises worldwide.
PA State Universities See Largest Enrollment Decline In Decades— Pennsylvania's state university education system saw a historic drop in enrollment this school year, according to statistics released this week, with student numbers falling to their lowest point in more than 20 years. There are presently 93,704 students enrolled in the state's 14 universities, more than 2,000 less than last year and marking the 11th straight year of net enrollment decline across the state. The 2021-22 numbers are about more than just the pandemic, as the drop this year was not markedly different than it has been in the past several years. Some of the state's 14 universities saw declining enrollment, but others actually saw increases, ranging from the state's two smallest schools, Cheyney and Mansfield, seeing minuscule increases of 5 and 129, respectively, to larger schools like West Chester holding steady with an increase of 28. But the largest state school, Indiana University of Pennsylvania, saw a decline of more than 600 enrollees from 2020-21. Edinboro lost 126; Bloomsburg lost 259. Find out what's happening in Lower Southampton with free, real-time updates from Patch. Your email address Let's go! Not since 1989 have overall enrollment numbers been so low, the statistics from the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education indicate. In previous blog posts on the subject, System Chancellor Dan Greenstein has pointed to "the pandemic (as) an accelerant into hyperdrive" of a pattern which pre-existed 2020. Specifically, he points to "instructional modality, regional location, available student services, and credentialing type" as things changing the nature of student needs and driving current trends. "Responding to these shifts, universities and colleges across the country will undoubtedly accelerate the pace of transformation, even where responses are intended as short-term expediencies to navigate a hyper-competitive market for student enrollments," Greenstein writes. It's also unclear the extent of the impact of the state's plan to consolidate six of its universities may have on enrollment. The proposal calls for California, Clarion and Edinboro to integrate in the western part of the state; Bloomsburg, Lock Haven and Mansfield would combine in the eastern portion. The plan has sparked controversy and criticism, and at least one state senator has asked for a two-year moratorium on implementing it.
Kids ages 5-11 could start getting Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine next month. Here's what to know and how to get your child a shot. On Thursday, Pfizer formally requested that Food and Drug Administration authorize its COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use among kids ages 5 to 11. The move sets the stage for vaccines to become available for that group next month."With new cases in children in the US continuing to be at a high level, this submission is an important step in our ongoing effort against COVID-19," Pfizer wrote on Twitter.The FDA has tentatively scheduled a meeting on October 26 to review Pfizer's request.While adults and teenagers have been benefitting from vaccine protection for months, young kids have had few options beyond masks and social distancing in the face of the Delta variant and while returning to school in person. "Delta has made COVID a pediatric problem," said Dr. Andrew Pavia, pediatric infectious disease specialist at the University of Utah. But if all goes well and the government green-lights Pfizer's shot, here's what parents will need to know. Pavia has served on advisory groups that review and suggest improvements to the US vaccine safety system — "I've been under the hood," he said. The COVID-19 vaccine, he added, "isn't brand new — this isn't understudied."So far, Pfizer's vaccine has been administered to more than 230 million Americans and has proven safe in teenagers, Pavia explained. Another factor that should reassure parents is that the US has a robust reporting system for detecting vaccine safety issues and side effects. "It's been able to detect very rare side effects very effectively," Pavia said. He gave the example of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle."Myocarditis in women occurs with a frequency of about two to five per million, and our safety systems are good enough to pick something up that's that rare," Pavia said.
Merck’s Covid Pill Could Pose Serious Risks, Scientists Warn -Merck‘s announcement that its antiviral molnupiravir had halved hospitalizations in a trial of high-risk Covid-19 patients was met with enthusiasm on Friday, inspiring a vision of a world in which treating a Covid-19 infection could be as trivial as swallowing a few pills. Some scientists who have studied the drug warn, however, that the method it uses to kill the virus that causes Covid-19 carries potential dangers that could limit the drug’s usefulness.
Merck applies for emergency authorization for what would be the first pill to treat Covid. Merck said on Monday that it had submitted an application to the Food and Drug Administration to authorize what would be the first antiviral pill to treat Covid.Clearance for the drug, molnupiravir, would be a milestone in the fight against the coronavirus, experts said, because a convenient, relatively inexpensive treatment could reach many more high-risk people sick with Covid than the cumbersome antibody treatments currently being used.The Biden administration is preparing for an authorization that could come within weeks; the pill would likely to be allocated to states, as was the case with the vaccines. States could then distribute the pills how they wish, such as through pharmacies or doctors’ practices, senior administration officials said.If the pill wins authorization, tens of millions of Americans will most likely be eligible to take it if they get sick with Covid — many more than the supply could cover, at least initially. The federal government has placed an advance order for enough pills for 1.7 million Americans, at a price of about $700 per patient. That is about one-third the price that the government is paying for the monoclonal antibody treatments, which are generally given via intravenous infusion.Merck, which is developing the pill with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics of Miami, expects to be able to produce enough pills for 10 million people by the end of this year. Governments have raced to lock up supplies since the strong clinical trial results were released this month; Australia, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea have all announced agreements.An antiviral pill being developed by Pfizer and one from Atea Pharmaceuticals-Roche will report study results in the next months and, if effective, could expand supply.Merck’s pill is meant to be taken at home as four capsules twice a day for five days, for a total of 40 pills. It halved hospitalizations and deaths in a clinical trial that enrolled unvaccinated adults who had begun showing Covid symptoms within the previous five days and were at high risk for bad outcomes from the disease. Merck said it was seeking authorization for its pill to be given only to high-risk adults, which in the clinical trial was most commonly people over 60 or younger people with obesity, diabetes or heart disease.
Vaccines cut the risk of severe COVID-19 by at least 90% in a huge real-world study of 23 million people - Vaccines cut the risk of severe COVID-19 by at least 90% in people who are 50 or older, a real-world study of nearly 23 million people has found.The study, conducted by the French government-backed scientific organization Epi-Phare, found that five months after vaccination, people aged over 75 were 94% less likely to be hospitalized than unvaccinated people in the same age group.The reduction in risk for those aged 50 to 74 was even higher, at 97%, the study authors said in a press release published Monday."This means that those who are vaccinated are nine times less at risk of being hospitalized or dying from COVID-19 than those who have not been vaccinated," the epidemiologist Mahmoud Zureik, who oversaw the research, told Agence France-Presse, per The Guardian.The study, which used data from the French National Health Data System, is one of the largest of its kind, comprising a total of 22.6 million people — 7.2 million over 75 years old and 15.4 million people aged 50 to 74. It adds to a growing body of real-world research from the UK, US, and Israel that vaccines hold up against severe COVID-19 for at least five months.Zureik told Agence France-Presse that avoiding the most serious infections was "the main public health objective.""An epidemic without serious infections is no longer an epidemic," he said.Most people, 85.3%, in the over-75 age group had received Pfizer's COVID-19 shot. A smaller number received Moderna shots and AstraZeneca's shots, at 8.7% and 6.1% respectively.In the younger age group, 53.6% received Pfizer's vaccine, 39.2% AstraZeneca's, and 7.1% Moderna's. The cut off for the study was July 20, which means it only includes a month of data for the highly infectious Delta variant, which became dominant in France in June.Zureik told Agence France-Presse that this was "a very short period to evaluate the real impact of the vaccination on this variant," adding that the research was ongoing.
Pfizer's COVID-19 immunity protection diminishes after 2 months, and it can reach as low as 20% after 4 months: studies -- People who get Pfizer's two-shot vaccine may still catch COVID-19 in the months after they are fully vaccinated — though those infections may be so mild they fly entirely under the radar. Two new studies, published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, show that Pfizer's mRNA shots still remain effective in guarding against hospitalization and death for at least six months, though protection against milder disease as well as antibody levels can fall — or at least they did in the face of the Beta and Delta variants. The new findings affirm what Pfizer, Moderna, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have indicated in recent weeks — that the mRNA vaccines' ability to protect the body from coronavirus infection may wane over time, meriting a third shot. In the first study, researchers in Qatar (a highly inoculated countrywith more than 82% of people fully vaccinated) investigated more than 900,000 PCR tests of people vaccinated with Pfizer (the most popular shot there), and found that their protection against any infection started to decrease markedly about four months after their second jab. The researchers found that Pfizer's protection against infection was "negligible" just after a first dose, rising to 36.8% three weeks later. When people then received their second shot, their vaccine protection jumped to 77.5% within about four weeks, and protection against "any severe, critical, or fatal case of COVID-19 increased rapidly," the researchers said, reaching 96% or higher in the first two months that people were fully vaccinated.That strong protection against the worst things COVID-19 can do to a person persisted for at least half a year.
AstraZeneca says its COVID-19 drug cuts the risk of severe disease in half. It's the first antibody cocktail shown to both prevent and treat the disease in late-stage trials. - AstraZeneca's antibody drug cut the risk of severe COVID-19 by at least 50% in a late stage study, the company announced on Monday. The injection, called AZD7442, contains two different antibodiesdeveloped from the the blood of people who previously contracted COVID-19. It's the first drug of its kind shown to both prevent and treat COVID-19 in late-stage trials, the company said in a press release.The company has already requested Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval to use AZD7442 to prevent COVID-19, after late-stage trial results in August showed it reduced the risk of COVID-19 with symptoms by 77%.It would now discuss the latest data with health authorities, it said.The results come after Merck, the US pharmaceutical company, said on Monday it would ask the FDA to authorize its oral COVID-19 pill, which halved the risk of hospitalization or death in a trial. The latest AstraZeneca results, from the TACKLE trial, showed that the risk of severe COVID-19 or death was halved if people took the drug within seven days of COVID-19 symptoms, AstraZeneca said. Out of 407 people who got the drug, 18 developed severe COVID-19 or died — compared with 37 of 415 people who got a saline injection.
Boosters are most likely on the way for recipients of the Moderna and J. &. J. vaccines. -The federal government is expected to take a significant step this week toward offering booster doses to a much wider range of Americans as advisers to the Food and Drug Administration meet on Thursday and Friday to discuss recipients of the Johnson & Johnson and Moderna coronavirus vaccines.So far, regulators have authorized booster shots only for certain adults who received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine — a source of some frustration to the government’s medical advisers, who questioned at a meeting last month whether recipients of the other shots were being left out.But the Biden administration is eager to shore up the protection provided by all three vaccines. And federal officials have become increasingly worried in particular about the more than 15 million Americans who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is less effective than the others.On Thursday, the F.D.A.’s advisory panel of vaccine experts will discuss safety and efficacy data regarding booster shots for Moderna recipients. On Friday, the group will discuss Johnson & Johnson boosters. The agency typically issues decisions within a few days of advisory committee meetings.The expert committee will also hear an eagerly awaited presentation on Friday from scientists at the National Institutes of Health on the effectiveness of mixing different brands of vaccines.Dr. Peter Marks, the F.D.A.’s top vaccine regulator, suggested last week that federal officials favor extra shots for all three vaccines. “The data seem to demonstrate that booster shots seem necessary,” he said.The deliberations come as coronavirus cases across the United States are falling, with the seven-day average of daily new cases slipping below 100,000 for the first time since early August. Hospitalizations and deaths are also declining.
Moderna argues the F.D.A. should authorize a half-dose of its vaccine as a booster. The Food and Drug Administration set the stage Tuesday for a new round of decisions on which Americans should get coronavirusbooster shots, releasing a review of data suggesting that an additional half-dose of Moderna’s vaccine at least six months after the second dose increased antibody levels. But the agency did not take a position on whether an additional shot was necessary.An independent advisory panel of experts will examine the available data on both Moderna and Johnson & Johnson boosters in a two-day meeting later this week. Votes are scheduled on whether to recommend emergency authorization of boosters for both vaccines. While the panel’s votes are not binding, the F.D.A.typically follows them.In documents released Tuesday, Moderna argued that a third injection is needed because the potency of its vaccine wanes over time, with levels of neutralizing antibodies falling six to eight months after a second dose. The company also cited “real world evidence of reduced effectiveness against the Delta variant,” although the F.D.A. noted that the studies diverge on whether Moderna’s protection weakened over time against symptomatic infection or against the Delta variant.The company did not argue that a booster was necessary to prevent severe disease or hospitalization, but concentrated its arguments on preventing infection and mild to moderate disease.Moderna said the mean antibody level of participants in its study was 1.8 times higher after the booster than it was after the second shot. In another measurement, the booster raised neutralizing antibodies at least fourfold in 87.9 percent of people compared to after the second dose, thus narrowly failing to meet the agency’s requirement of 88.4 percent. In a document that Johnson & Johnson submitted to the F.D.A. ahead of this week’s meeting, the company argued that booster shots of its vaccine increased protection against Covid-19, including against severe forms of the disease, and increased the strength of the body’s immune response against virus variants. Johnson & Johnson said that a booster shot could be administered as early as two months after the first dose, but recommended doing so at least six months after, when it said recipients had been shown to have a more robust immune response.
An F.D.A. panel recommended a Moderna booster for many Americans. - A panel of independent medical experts on Thursday unanimously recommended Moderna booster shots for many of those who had received the company’s coronavirus vaccine, paving the way to sharply expand the number of people eligible for an additional shot in the United States.The advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration voted 19 to 0 in favor of emergency authorization of a half-dose booster, at least six months after the second dose. Those eligible for the extra shot would include people over 65 and other adults considered at high risk — the same groups now eligible for a Pfizer-BioNTech booster.The F.D.A. typically follows the panel’s advice, and should rule within days.The recommendations come as the nation is seeing a decline in coronavirus cases but still faces nearly 90,000 new infections and roughly 1,800 deaths per day. The Biden administration has cast booster shots as an additional tool in the battle against the pandemic, while acknowledging that controlling the disease’s spread depends upon vaccinating tens of millions of Americans for the first time.In a speech at the White House on Thursday, President Biden once again sought to rally businesses to support vaccination mandates that he said would help reduce the ranks of the unvaccinated in the United States, calling the number of people who have not gotten even a first shot “unacceptably high.”More than seven million people in the United States have already obtained booster doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, and more than a million have received third doses of Moderna’s, even though only those with immune deficiencies are officially eligible.On Friday, the same expert committee will meet to discuss and vote on whether the roughly 15 million people who received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine should also be eligible for booster doses. Its members are also supposed to discuss a new federal study that suggests those Americans might be better off getting a booster dose of the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines.If the F.D.A. quickly authorizes Moderna booster doses, and if the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention signs off after a meeting of its own committee of vaccine experts next week, people in the eligible groups could begin seeking out the shots soon after. In addition to people over 65, those groups include younger adults at high risk of severe Covid-19 or serious complications because of medical conditions or their jobs. To date, more than 103 million people in the United States have been fully vaccinated with Pfizer’s product, more than 69 million with Moderna’s and about 15 million with the Johnson & Johnson shot.
People who received a J.&J. vaccine may be better off with a Moderna or Pfizer booster, a study finds. - People who received a Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine may be better off with a booster shot from Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech, according to preliminary data from a federal clinical trial published on Wednesday.That finding, along with a mixed review by the Food and Drug Administration of the case made by Johnson & Johnson for an authorization of its booster, could lead to a heated debate about how and when to offer additional shots to the 15 million Americans who have received the single-dose vaccine.The agency’s panel of vaccine advisers will meet Thursday and Friday to vote on whether to recommend that the agency allow Moderna and Johnson & Johnson to offer booster shots.Despite the questions raised by the new data on the strength of Johnson & Johnson’s boosters, some experts anticipated that the agency would clear the shots anyway, since the effectiveness of the one-shot vaccine is lower than that of the two-dose mRNA vaccines made by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech. And the broader public may also be expecting the authorizations, given the Biden administration’s push for boosters from all brands.Once the agency authorized a booster from Pfizer-BioNTech last month, “the die was cast,” said John Moore, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine.The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are by far the most used in the United States, with more than 170 million people in the United States fully immunized with either one or the other vaccine. When Johnson & Johnson’s was authorized in February, public health experts were eager to deploy the “one-and-done” option, particularly in communities with poor access to health care. But the shot’s popularity plummeted when the F.D.A. later paused its use to investigate rare blood clotting cases.For those who have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, the timing of a booster authorization — of any brand — is still uncertain. The F.D.A. panel is set to vote Friday only on whether the agency should permit a second dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, a scenario the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s own vaccine advisory committee will discuss next week. If both agencies believe an additional dose should be offered, people could seek them out as early as next week.Whether the F.D.A. might authorize the mix-and-match approach, and how, is unclear. The strategy will be discussed at the agency panel’s meeting on Friday, but no vote will be taken. If regulators eventually believe there is enough scientific support for the approach, they would likely need to update the authorization language of the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines to allow for their use in people who initially received Johnson & Johnson’s.
Symptoms and Health Outcomes Among Survivors of COVID-19 Infection 1 Year After Discharge From Hospitals in Wuhan, China JAMA -- COVID-19 has spread rapidly into a global pandemic ever since the initial reports in December 2019 in China, which has caused millions of deaths.1 The disease affects multiple systems of the body in the acute phase, represented by acute pneumonia.2 With the increasing number of patients recovered, postinfection health consequences have been recognized.3-5 The first survivors in Wuhan, China, have now lived for 1 year, which provides an opportunity to address the long-term sequelae of COVID-19 in a large population sample.In this cohort study of 2433 patients who had been hospitalized with COVID-19, the most common symptoms at 1 year after discharge were fatigue, sweating, chest tightness, anxiety, and myalgia. Patients with severe disease had more postinfection symptoms and higher chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test scores. This study reported prolonged symptoms of COVID-19 and found that severe disease during hospitalization was a risk factor for more symptoms and higher chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test scores. All patients participated in telephone interviews using a series of questionnaires for evaluation of symptoms, along with a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) assessment test (CAT). Logistic regression models were used to evaluate risk factors for fatigue, dyspnea, symptom burden, or higher CAT scores. Results: Of 2433 patients at 1-year follow-up, 1205 (49.5%) were men and 680 (27.9%) were categorized into the severe disease group as defined by the World Health Organization guideline; the median (IQR) age was 60.0 (49.0-68.0) years. In total, 1095 patients (45.0%) reported at least 1 symptom. The most common symptoms included fatigue, sweating, chest tightness, anxiety, and myalgia. Older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02; P < .001), female sex (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.06-1.52; P = .008), and severe disease during hospital stay (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.18-1.74; P < .001) were associated with higher risks of fatigue. Older age (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; P < .001) and severe disease (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.14-1.99; P = .004) were associated with higher risks of having at least 3 symptoms. The median (IQR) CAT score was 2 (0-4), and a total of 161 patients (6.6%) had a CAT score of at least 10. Severe disease (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.31-2.58; P < .001) and coexisting cerebrovascular diseases (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.07-3.54; P = .03) were independent risk factors for CAT scores of at least 10.
How many people get 'long COVID?' More than half, researchers find - — More than half of the 236 million people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 worldwide since December 2019 will experience post-COVID symptoms — more commonly known as “long COVID” — up to six months after recovering, according to Penn State College of Medicine researchers. The research team said that governments, health care organizations and public health professionals should prepare for the large number of COVID-19 survivors who will need care for a variety of psychological and physical symptoms. During their illnesses, many patients with COVID-19 experience symptoms, such as tiredness, difficulty breathing, chest pain, sore joints and loss of taste or smell. Until recently, few studies have evaluated patients’ health after recovering from the coronavirus. To better understand the short- and long-term health effects of the virus, the researchers examined worldwide studies involving unvaccinated patients who recovered from COVID-19. According to the findings, adults, as well as children, can experience several adverse health issues for six months or longer after recovering from COVID-19. The researchers conducted a systematic review of 57 reports that included data from 250,351 unvaccinated adults and children who were diagnosed with COVID-19 from December 2019 through March 2021. Among those studied, 79% were hospitalized, and most patients (79%) lived in high-income countries. Patients’ median age was 54, and the majority of individuals (56%) were male.The researchers analyzed patients’ health post-COVID during three intervals at one month (short-term), two to five months (intermediate-term) and six or more months (long-term).According to the findings, survivors experienced an array of residual health issues associated with COVID-19. Generally, these complications affected a patient’s general well-being, their mobility or organ systems. Overall, one in two survivors experienced long-term COVID manifestations. The rates remained largely constant from one month through six or more months after their initial illness. The investigators noted several trends among survivors, such as:
- General well-being: More than half of all patients reported weight loss, fatigue, fever or pain.
- Mobility: Roughly one in five survivors experienced a decrease in mobility.
- Neurologic concerns: Nearly one in four survivors experienced difficulty concentrating.
- Mental health disorders: Nearly one in three patients were diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorders.
- Lung abnormalities: Six in ten survivors had chest imaging abnormality and more than a quarter of patients had difficulty breathing.
- Cardiovascular issues: Chest pain and palpitations were among the commonly reported conditions.
- Skin conditions: Nearly one in five patients experienced hair loss or rashes.
- Digestive issues: Stomach pain, lack of appetite, diarrhea and vomiting were among the commonly reported conditions.
“These findings confirm what many health care workers and COVID-19 survivors have been claiming, namely, that adverse health effects from COVID-19 can linger,” said co-lead investigator Vernon Chinchilli, chair of the Department of Public Health Sciences. "Although previous studies have examined the prevalence of long COVID symptoms among patients, this study examined a larger population, including people in high-, middle- and low-income countries, and examined many more symptoms. Therefore, we believe our findings are quite robust given the available data.”
Watch: Fauci Claims No "True Basis" In Concerns Over Long-Term COVID Vax Side Effects - Anthony Fauci declared Wednesday that there are is no “true basis” for concerns over potential long term side effects of COVID vaccines, despite there being no long term studies to take data from.While speaking on a virtual call in concert with CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky and U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, Fauci was asked by a caller if pilots have any ‘valid concerns’ after it was suggested that many are remaining unvaccinated to avoid potential long term side effects that may infringe on their ability to fly.“Pilots at American and Southwest Airlines in particular are arguing that some pilots may be reluctant to get vaccinated because of potential of career-ending side effects,” the caller stated, adding...“They’re concerned that there could be long-term side effects that could cause them to then lose their medical certification and also lose their jobs and their livelihoods. So is this a valid concern?” Fauci responded: “Well, right now on the basis of literally hundreds and hundreds of millions of vaccinations that we’ve had, the safety of these vaccines have been clearly established.” Or perhaps there just isn’t any empirical long term data yet? He continued, “The long-term effects that the people are apparently concerned about really have — I’m sure there is a very, very, very rare exception — but the long-term effects are really actually non-existent, in the sense of anything that has been a red flag on the part of the follow-up of these individuals.” “So although one, I guess, can theoretically say, ‘I’m concerned about a long-term effect,’ the fact of the safety and the follow-up over a considerable period of time, over a year as so many individuals, we have not really seen that. So we don’t really see any true basis in that concern.”
164 children killed by COVID-19 across the US over the past two months -The latest American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) report shows that 22 children died from COVID-19 across the US during the week ending October 7, bringing the country’s official pediatric death toll to 542 since May 2020. Coinciding with the bipartisan push to fully reopen schools this fall, 164 children have died from COVID-19 over the past two months alone, with an average of 20 child deaths each week or roughly three each day. The AAP report notes that last week there were 148,222 official COVID-19 infections among children in the US, a slight decline from the previous week but still as high as during the major surge of infections last winter. A closer look at the data shows that the only significant decline in cases occurred in the South, where cases dropped from an estimated 75,000 to 50,000 cases, still horrifically high numbers. Ongoing infection in children has had devastating reverberations for families, including child deaths as well as hospitalizations and deaths among family members. A recent study revealed that an estimated 140,000 children in the US have lost a caregiver to COVID-19 since the pandemic began, while the global figure stands at more than 1.56 million. The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that there is currently a seven-day average of 188 new pediatric hospitalizations for COVID-19 every day across the US. Additionally, in recent months there has been an acceleration of pediatric hospitalizations for Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome in children (MIS-C), a condition which causes major inflammation of different parts of the body, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes or gastrointestinal organs, and usually appears six to eight weeks after initial COVID-19 infection. The CDC reports that there have been 1,217 cases of MIS-C since June 2, raising the total number of cases to 5,217 since May 2020. To date, there have been 46 reported MIS-C deaths. Doctors have been warning about an increase in MIS-C cases following the ongoing explosion of infections among children since the summer months and in particular after schools fully reopened. Between July and August, the number of daily MIS-C cases nearly doubled, according to CDC data. The official figures make clear the immense impact of COVID-19 on children, but they are undoubtedly a significant undercount. There are entire states that either do not report age distribution of cases, hospitalizations, or deaths, or have changed the parameters of their reporting, effectively downplaying the impacts of the virus on children. According to the AAP, Texas, Alabama and Nebraska recently stopped reporting child COVID-19 cases in their state data. Michigan, Montana, New York (excluding New York City), Rhode Island, Utah and West Virginia do not report the age distribution of deaths in their state data. Any child deaths that have occurred in these states are not included in the AAP cumulative death toll.
Michigan reports a daily average of 4,205 COVID-19 cases(WJRT) - The daily average in Michigan is surging well over 4,000 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases as of Friday.The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services reported 8,409 new COVID-19 illnesses for Thursday and Friday for a total of 1,055,420. The daily average as of Friday is 4,205 newly confirmed cases.State health officials reported 82 deaths attributed to the coronavirus on Thursday through Friday, which increase Michigan’s total COVID-19 deaths to 21,313.Coronavirus diagnostic testing increased over 10,000 with 53,701 tests completed per day on Thursday. The percentage of positive tests remained similar to this weeks readings with 11.17%.The number of people hospitalized with confirmed or probable COVID-19 illnesses continued increasing. As of Friday, 1,930 patients were hospitalized with confirmed or probable COVID-19 illnesses, which is 73 more than Wednesday. Of those, 1,811 patients have confirmed COVID-19 cases.The numbers of COVID-19 patients in intensive care both increased this week. As of Friday, Michigan hospitals were treating 485 coronavirus patients in intensive care and 250 of them were on ventilators.Since Wednesday, there is one more COVID-19 patient in intensive care and nine more on ventilators.Michigan has distributed over 13.628 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, including 7.392 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, 5.549 million doses of the Moderna vaccine and 686,600 doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.Of those, 10,055,637 million doses of vaccine have been administered to 5.534 million people statewide. A total of 58.5% of Michiganders age 12 and older are fully vaccinated for COVID-19 while 68.4% have received at least one dose of vaccine. Here are totals for Mid-Michigan counties based on Michigan Department of Health and Human Services and local health department figures with the change from Wednesday:
Minnesota hospitals are nearing capacity as a virus surge batters the state. - Intensive care units are nearing capacity and health care workers are in short supply in Minnesota, as coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths all reach levels not seen since vaccines became widely available.All of the state’s counties are at high risk for community transmission, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. New daily cases have risen by 29 percent in the last two weeks and hospitalizations by 17 percent, according to a New York Times database. The state’s daily case average is at its highest level for 2021 and reached 2,932 on Monday, a dramatic increase since the summer, when it bottomed out at an average of 81 daily cases.While a monthslong increase driven by the Delta virus variant is waning in much of the country, Minnesota is just one of several Upper Midwestern and Mountain West states where the virus is surging. Cases are up and hospitals have been overwhelmed inNorth Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho, all of which have low vaccination rates. Some areas have had to ration care and send patients to distant hospitals for treatment.The Minnesota Department of Health said the state’s surge is overwhelming hospitals, with rural and metropolitan areas equally stretched.“Even before Covid cases started to rise in this latest surge, our hospitals were very full with patients needing care for other critical conditions,” Jan Malcolm, the state’s health commissioner,said in a news conference last week.According to a state health department database, 96 percent of I.C.U. beds in Minnesota are in use along with 93 percent of non-intensive care beds. Although beds are almost at capacity, the state is equipped with respirators to combat the surge, Ms. Malcolm said. The bigger issue now is a shortage of medical personnel, she said.“What’s important to understand is that this isn’t so much about the physical asset of a hospital bed or a ventilator, and those were big focuses earlier in the pandemic, but now this is really an issue of health care worker capacity,” Ms. Malcolm said. “There are actually fewer health care workers on the job today than there were last year due to the extreme stress and burnout that they have faced for over 18 months now.”
Russian COVID-19 deaths reach record highs while government does nothing - Coronavirus deaths in Russia are reaching all-time highs, as the federal government does nothing to control the pandemic. Over 970 people died in the country on Tuesday, surpassing the worst moments of the 2021 winter peak. According to the government agency Rosstat, 418,000 Russian citizens have now perished from COVID-19. The real numbers, however, are widely considered to be far higher. Ambulances with patients suspected of having coronavirus stand near a hospital in Kommunarka, outside Moscow, Russia on October 11, 2021. According to the latest numbers from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), Russia experienced a staggering 71.6 percent increase in mortality over the past 12 months, driven above all by the high mortality from COVID-19. Overall, between September 2020 and August 2021, 2.36 million people died in Russia, while only 1.4 million children were born. The natural population decline has now reached dimensions unseen in the country outside of war times. Meanwhile, daily confirmed cases continue to climb, and had reached more than 28,000 a day as of Tuesday. Nationwide, there has been a 16 percent increase in infections over the last seven days, and in 11 regions of the country that number is 30 percent. On October 12, the Ministry of Health said the situation was worst in Orenburg, Bashkortostan, and Tatarstan, which are east of Moscow and north of the border with Kazakhstan, respectively. Other areas are also being extremely hard hit. The republic of Mari El declared that it has no more hospital beds for COVID-19 patients, as did the city of Chelyabinsk. Hospitals in the Komi republic are 90 percent full, and in Vologda oblast 97 percent. In Voronezh, a local chemical plant has suspended its tests of jet rockets in order to furnish the region’s hospitals with oxygen. It delivered 42 tons of the life-saving resource to medical facilities last week alone. Still, more supplies are being shipped into the region. Three hundred and ten doctors and 800 medical personnel have been dispatched to Adiga, and another 780 hospital beds brought online. But health officials are warning that even this may not be enough to handle the surge. According to the head of Russia’s consumer protection agency, 605 schools in 25 regions and 117 childcare facilities in 22 regions are shuttered due to outbreaks. It is clear, however, when one reads local news outlets that these numbers are much higher.
Russian health care system strained as COVID-19 deaths, infections hit another daily record: report - Russian coronavirus deaths and infections hit another daily record on Friday — the second day in a row — as the country's health care system faces mounting strain, The Associated Press reported. Russia reported 999 deaths and 32,196 COVID-19 cases on Friday, according to the news outlet, beating the previous records of 986 deaths and 31,299 cases reported on Thursday. The country has reported 7.8 million coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic and more than 220,000 deaths, per data from the World Health Organization. Three countries have reported larger numbers of coronavirus cases: the United States, Brazil and India. All three, in addition to Mexico, have reported higher death tolls. The U.S. has seen a total of 44.3 million cases and more than 700,000 deaths, a milestone that was passed at the beginning of this month. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate that COVID-19 infections have started to trend downward nationwide in the U.S., though it remains unclear if the latest delta variant-driven wave will be the last one. Russia, which has repeatedly reported record numbers of COVID-19 deaths in recent weeks, has a low vaccination rate, with only 31 percent of its population fully inoculated, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. To combat the strain on health care systems, retired, vaccinated medical practitioners have been told that they could resume working again, Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said, according to the AP. The government has indicated that it will not be moving toward a nationwide lockdown, as was the case during the beginning of the pandemic. Officials say that Russia’s 85 regions will themselves determine what measures to take, though some health officials have warned against that. “If we don’t take measures to restrict social communications resulting in growing infections, we will face rising contagion,” Murashko said on Thursday, according to the AP.
Suicides At Bosnian Hospital Raise Concerns About Mental Health Struggles Of COVID-19 Patients - - A patient in the Bosnian city of Banja Luka has jumped from the fifth floor of a hospital building, making it the sixth suicide at the facility this year. With most of the patients jumping from floors where the hospital’s COVID-19 wards were situated, the multiple suicides have shone a spotlight on the possible mental-health crises faced by coronavirus patients in Bosnia, where the death toll from the pandemic is steadily rising. Renata Tamburic, the head of the COVID-19 department at the University Clinical Center of Republika Srpska (UCCRS) in Banja Luka, the largest city in the Serb-dominated part of the Balkan nation, said that the latest patient to take their own life was seriously ill with late-stage cancer and also suffering from pneumonia due to the coronavirus. Tamburic said that the patient's health deteriorated during the night of October 3-4 "and that the unpleasant event happened from a room used by the staff, in which the windows were not protected." The recent death was the hospital's second suicide in as many weeks and the sixth this year. In five of the incidents, people jumped from hospital windows in or where coronavirus wards were located; in the sixth case, the patient was found hanged in the toilet of a psychiatric ward. The hospital has not released their names. According to data from the U.S.-based Johns Hopkins University, Bosnia-Herzegovina has Europe's highest coronavirus mortality rate at 4.5 percent with 15 percent of the country's population fully vaccinated. Bosnia, like many other countries around the world, is grappling with vaccine refusal and vaccine hesitancy. Nebojsa, a 61-year-old man who requested that his surname be withheld due to privacy concerns, was receiving treatment in the COVID-19 ward on the fifth floor of the UCCRS hospital. "I was shocked because the windows were half-closed [and couldn't be opened] and they said it was so that no one would jump. Some of the patients [there] aren't doing well mentally," Nebojsa told RFE/RL's Balkans Service. While Nebojsa praised the hospital for its modern treatment and friendly staff, he said he had witnessed firsthand the mental toll treatment was taking on patients. "I saw a woman walking there and she couldn't find her room. Walking down that hallway, the hallway on the fifth floor is really long. I could see that she was not in the best mental state, as she couldn't find a way to her room," said Nebojsa, who was a patient at the hospital for 21 days in May. "They left the dead across the hall. I could see the [body] bags, the bags they left there. The doctor said, 'they died.' In eight days, seven people died. On the eighth day, eight more died, meaning a total of 15 people died," Nebojsa said, adding that he didn't think that the experience had affected him psychologically.
One in five of England’s most critically ill Covid patients are unvaccinated pregnant women, a study finds. - Unvaccinated pregnant women make up nearly 20 percent of the most critically ill Covid-19 patients in England, according to datareleased by the National Health Service on Monday.Since July, approximately one in five coronavirus patients who received an intensive lung-bypass treatment, or Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO), were unvaccinated and pregnant.“The disproportionate number of unvaccinated pregnant women in intensive care demonstrates that there is a significant risk of severe illness from Covid-19 in pregnancy,” said Dr. Edward Morris, president of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, in a statement on the N.H.S. website. The N.H.S. is now pleading with pregnant women to get vaccinated as soon as possible, pointing to mounting safety data that counters unfounded fears that the vaccine poses severe risks to their health.
British health officials say more than 40K may have gotten COVID-19 false negatives - Thousands of British citizens may have received false negatives and been incorrectly told they don't have the coronavirus after receiving negative PCR tests but positive rapid lateral flow device (LFD) exams, according to The Associated Press.The United Kingdom's National Health Service said about 400,000 samples had been processed through a now-suspended testing lab, but 43,000 people may have been given incorrect negative PCR test results between Sept. 8 and Oct. 12, The Guardian reported.The Immensa Health Clinic Ltd. lab in central England has been suspended by the U.K. Health Security Agency (UKHSA) after the false negatives amid widespread backlash from the country's residents.British health officials have also recommended that anyone who got a negative PCR test result there in the first two weeks of the month get retested, along with their close contacts."We have immediately suspended testing at this laboratory while we continue the investigation," Will Welfare, public health incident director, told Reuters. "There is no evidence of any faults with LFD or PCR test kits themselves, and the public should remain confident in using them and in other laboratory services currently provided."According to the BBC, the UKHSA has said it is working to determine the exact cause of the technical issues at the lab that resulted in false negative PCR results. An investigation is currently ongoing.This news comes as the U.K's Department of Health recorded 45,066 new infections in the last 24 hour period — the highest since July 20 this year,the Daily Mirror reported on Thursday.Close to 2.8 million people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the U.K. since the pandemic began. The country requires negative tests for both visitors and returning citizens to enter. However, the rules are set to change on Oct. 24, when fully vaccinated travelers from most countries can take quick lateral flow tests rather than a PCR test to enter its borders.
Northwest Territories grappling with Canada’s highest COVID-19 infection rate - The Northwest Territories (NWT) currently has the highest rate of active COVID-19 cases in Canada, with the equivalent of 740 cases per 100,000 people. This is more than one-and-a-half times the rate in Alberta, where hospitals have had to implement triage protocols, denying vitally needed care to some patients, due to an unprecedented explosion of infections and hospital admissions. While the NWT’s 356 active infections may seem small in comparison to Alberta’s 15,295, the difference in their respective populations means that the situation in the territory, which makes up much of Canada’s far north, is dire. The Northwest Territories has a population of just 45,500, almost half of whom, some 21,400 people, reside in its capital, Yellowknife. A nurse holds a phone while a patient affected with COVID-19 speaks with his family from the intensive care unit. (Image Credit: AP/Daniel Cole) NWT has now recorded nine total COVID-19 deaths, all of them since August, including two that were reported on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. The territory had largely escaped the ravages of COVID-19 until the country’s current Delta-driven fourth wave erupted in early August. Since the pandemic began in Canada in March 2020, the Northwest Territories has had 1,537 confirmed COVID-19 cases. Of these, close to 1,400 have been reported since mid-August 2021. This rapid increase in infections has been largely caused by an outbreak of the Delta variant in the Sahtu region, which subsequently spread to Yellowknife. On Sunday, NWT’s chief public health officer announced that an exposure to COVID-19 had occurred last week at the territory’s legislature building. This alone has resulted in six confirmed cases and two probable cases to date. Other outbreaks declared this week include one at the Inuvik homeless shelter and another at Diamond Jenness Secondary School, both in Hay River. Located in Yellowknife, the territory’s main hospital, Stanton Territorial Hospital, has just six ICU (intensive care) beds. By October 4, all six of these beds were occupied by patients suffering from COVID-19. The federal government sent oxygen concentrators from the national stockpile to the territory, after a public alert was issued by the NWT health authority that Stanton Territorial Hospital was struggling with oxygen supply issues. The federal government also requested that the Red Cross send health care workers to assist in the territory. Nurses, doctors and health care staff have since been deployed to work at the temporary shelter set up at the Yellowknife Arena in September to provide services to the city’s large “underhoused” population.
Hong Kong says it needs to increase vaccination rates before it opens its border. - Hong Kong’s chief executive said vaccination rates must rise before it considers loosening travel restrictions, putting the territory at odds with Asian countries that have started opening borders after almost two years of near isolation.The government’s main priority is to resume normal travel with mainland China and to limit deaths from the virus, the chief executive, Carrie Lam, said on Monday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Hong Kong remains firm on its cross-border policies, she said. Ms. Lam declined to say what percent would need to be inoculated to open up borders.Hong Kong has vaccinated 61 percent of its population with at least one dose, according to a New York Times database, falling short of the government’s target of inoculating 70 percent by the end of September.“I am duty bound to protect my people,” Ms. Lam said. “Any fatality or increase in fatality will cause a major concern in society.”Governments across Asia are abandoning some of the strictest measures against the virus almost two years into a pandemic that has devastated their economies. Hong Kong has refused to ease these restrictions, including keeping in place a 21-day quarantinefor travelers. The steps have helped the island have one of the lowest tallies of deaths and new cases in the world.“I’m sorry to say that we are still lagging behind,” she said in the interview. [The policies have frustrated residents who have had to endure the quarantines on arrival. Over the weekend, a tropical storm caused a flight to Hong Kong from London’s Heathrow Airport to divert to Manila. The trip should have taken 12 hours, but passengers were onboard the plane for 36 hours. They will still have to self-quarantine for the full three weeks.
China begins administering additional shots to older and high-risk people. - Chinese authorities are rolling out third shots of coronavirus vaccines for high-risk groups in at least 10 regions, according tostate media, as the country races to meet its goal of fully vaccinating 80 percent of its population by the end of the year.After a series of outbreaks of the Delta variant, Wang Huaqing, chief expert for China’s immunization program at the Chinese Center for Disease Control, recommended last month that additional shots be administered to people in frontline professions, including medical workers; people with weaker immune systems; those age 60 or older; and travelers going to countries deemed at high risk.Chinese health officials have said that further studies were still needed to determine whether the rest of the population would benefit from getting an additional shot.By Sunday, more than 40,000 people in Hubei, the province encompassing Wuhan where the virus first emerged, had received booster shots, according to state media reports. In the northeastern province of Heilongjiang, which had a flare-up of the Delta variant last month, local health officials said that people who got the booster shot would see their government-issued health codes upgraded to reflect their strengthened immune status.Last month, China announced that it had fully inoculated 1 billion people, or about 71 percent of its population of 1.4 billion. The country has administered 2.21 billion doses, more than twice that of India, which is ranked second for shots given, according to Our World in Data, which tracks vaccination figures. Despite its high vaccination rate, China has shown no signs of abandoning its “zero Covid” strategy, and has instead continued to employ a mix of stringent border controls, mass testing and snap lockdowns to tame outbreaks.
More microplastics are entering the ocean from disposable masks - The enormous surge of face-mask use since the beginning of the global lockdown in March 2020 has saved countless human lives, a crucial component to limiting the transmission of the novel coronavirus. But with 129 billion masks being consumed globally every month, disposal has become a major issue with implications on human, animal and ecological health. The problem becomes more acute as, according to a recent study by Concordia researchers, a single mask left exposed under natural conditions can release more than 1.5 million microplastics into the aqueous environment. In a new paper, Ph.D. student Zheng Wang and Chunjiang An, an assistant professor in the Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, investigate how disposable masks break down in a shoreline environment and the environmental implications that poses. They examine changes in chemical composition and strength degradation of the three different mask layers caused by UV exposure and sand abrasion. Shorelines, they write, are not only the main receptors of discarded masks; their unique environment also leads to further breakdown of masks into plastic particles. The study was published in the Journal of Hazardous Materials. The researchers simulated shoreline environment conditions on a set of masks and created a control group with which to compare. After 18 hours of weathering, the outer and inner layer of the masks exhibited noticeable damage to their fiber surfaces. Damage to the fibers in the middle layer, however, which are six times smaller than those in the outer and inner layers, was more severe: the surfaces had become abrasive, and fracturing had occurred. After 36 hours of exposure to UV rays, fibers in all three layers had fractured, creating miniscule fiber fragments, and particles started attaching themselves to the fibers. Their surfaces showed obvious signs of weathering, including cracks, flakes, grooves and pits. Damage was most severe in the middle layer, where all the fibers had broken into small fragments. These findings coincided with an observed increase in the number of microparticles released into the water after 18 hours of weathering. After 36 hours, the researchers observed the broken mask fibers easily entering the water, even to the naked eye, and millions of small particles existed in the sample water.
We need the government to fully enforce the Clean Water Act - dark ages. The images of the burning Cuyahoga River in Cleveland garnered national attention, but it wasn’t the only waterway in crisis. The Cuyahoga wasn’t even the only river to catch on fire. Things began to change for the better when the Clean Water Act passed 49 years ago in 1972. It was a groundbreaking, first-of-its-kind piece of environmental legislation. It set the floor for pollution standards, empowered citizens, and changed the course of America’s waterways. The law has led to many successes in restoring water quality. Thanks to the Clean Water Act and engaged citizens’ groups, the Willamette River, Hudson River, Lake Erie and many other water bodies across the country — while still facing great challenges — have all seen dramatic turnarounds. The Clean Water Act has given many of our lakes and rivers a chance to recuperate. But the recovery is not yet complete and gains are tenuous. Loopholes and emerging contaminants pose an ongoing risk. However, the greatest threat to our water is government inaction. As we approach the 50th anniversary of the Clean Water Act, it’s time for our government to do more to protect our right to drinkable, fishable, swimmable water. A great first step would be to fully — and finally — enforce the law it passed nearly a half century ago. If we are going to have clean water for the next 50 years and beyond, we need the government to lead. That’s because despite the Clean Water Act’s successes, our waterways are still facing very real problems. There are algae blooms in the Great Lakes, petrochemical runoff in Louisiana, cesspools of hog waste in the Carolinas, and plastic pollutionjust about everywhere in the country. Roughly half of all the waterways in the country are impaired. Millions of Americans are at risk from unsafe drinking water due to emerging contaminants, and, as a consequence, may suffer related health risks. It is far past time to fully implement the Clean Water Act and apply it to all waterways in the United States. EPA needs to implement clearer definitions, stronger pollution standards, meaningful deadlines and prioritized enforcement. The law must also address non-point source pollution. Issues like water scarcity, dams, diversions and more must be addressed to protect against marginalized and frontline communities. Moreover, the law needs to adapt to the realities of climate change. As we approach the UN climate change conference COP26 in November there’s no better way to show the world we are serious about a sustainable environment than by rigorously protecting our own country’s water.
Potential Federal Action Would Address Common and Harmful “Forever Chemicals” – Congress and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency may soon take serious regulatory action against a common but little-known family of man-made chemicals that has been sickening communities across the U.S for decades. In September, the EPA announced its intention to set its first standards for PFAS concentrations in industrial wastewater discharges. And in October, the federal agency agreed to respond within 90 days to a petition from North Carolina health and environmental justice groups asking that Chemours, a chemical company with a history of discharging PFAS into the Cape Fear River watershed, be required to test for impacts to human and environmental health.Separately, in July the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that would require the EPA to broadly regulate per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS. The Senate has not yet held a committee vote. Two representatives are also looking to include funding for fire departments to replace PFAS-laden supplies into the ongoing budget reconciliation process. If these changes become law, they could provide a sense of justice to those harmed by toxic PFAS exposure and prevent further persistence of PFAS in water and air.The PFAS Action Act, which passed the House 241-183, would require the EPA to establish drinking water limits for two common PFAS known as PFOA and PFOS — perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid, respectively. The agency would also be given five years to determine how many more varieties of PFAS need to be regulated. The chemical family would be classified as a “hazardous substance” under the Superfund program and PFOA and PFOS would be classified as “hazardous air pollutants” under the Clean Air Act. EPA would also be required to determine whether PFAS should be regulated under the Clean Water Act. If so, a limit would be set on the amount of PFAS that industrial sites can discharge.PFAS, also dubbed “forever chemicals,” are not currently regulated by the EPA, despite the danger they pose. A 2011 study using 10 years of blood serum data from a representative sample of United States residents found PFAS in the blood of more than 95% of participants. Research into the health impacts of PFAS is ongoing, but studies have found a “probable link” to ulcerative colitis and two varieties of cancer, among other conditions. Additional studies referenced by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the odorless, tasteless chemicals may raise cholesterol and cause changes in liver enzymes, among other health issues.
Where Does PFAS Pollution Come From? New Study Identifies Nearly 42,000 Potential Sources -- Is your drinking water contaminated with toxic forever chemicals?A new study published in a special issue of the American Water Works Association Water Science journal Tuesday found that there were nearly 42,000 potential sources of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) pollution that could contaminate surface water or drinking water in the U.S."It is critical that the EPA start regulating PFAS – now," lead study author and Environmental Working Group (EWG) senior scientist David Andrews, Ph.D. said in a press release announcing the research. "Every community in the U.S. is likely affected by PFAS contamination, but those living near or downstream from industrial facilities may be more at risk."PFAS are a class of chemicals often used in stain or water repellents, non-stick products and firefighting foam, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). They are known as forever chemicals because they do not break down over time and tend to persist and accumulate in the environment and the human body. They are also constantly turning up in more and more locations, from rain, to cosmetics to the air we breathe. The new study, which was conducted by EWG scientists, looked at potential sources of PFAS contamination based on public data from the EPA's Enforcement and Compliance History Online database. It found that the most common potential pollution sources were solid waste landfills, wastewater treatment plants, oil refineries and electroplaters and metal finishers. "The results from states like Michigan show there is a wide variety of sources of PFAS in surface water," Andrews said in the EWG release. "Many landfills and industrial sites release PFAS at detectable concentrations that may exceed state limits or health guidelines for PFAS in water."There is currently no national limit for PFAS contamination in water, according to the study authors, though the EPA says it is currently working on setting one. In the meantime, six states have set their own limits. However, research is continually showing health impacts from PFAS at lower and lower levels."For example, state guidelines for exposure to PFOA have decreased approximately three orders of magnitude from 7000 ng/L [nanograms per liter], set by Minnesota in 2002, to 8 ng/L, set by Michigan in 2020," the study authors wrote.Still, the latest research puts the safe concentration even lower, at 1 ng/L. Drinking PFAS-contaminated water at even low levels has been linked with health risks including immune suppression, cancer and reproductive or developmental problems, according to the EWG release.
This Year's E-Waste to Outweigh Great Wall of China - October 14th is International E-Waste Day, and the waste electrical and electronic equipment forum, or WEEE Forum, has published an alarming statistic. In 2021, human beings will discard an estimated 57.4 million tonnes (approximately 63.3 million U.S. tons) ofelectronic waste. That waste will outweigh the Great Wall of China, the world's heaviest human construction. This is why the WEEE Forum is calling for these items to be repaired or recycled instead of discarded. "This year's focus for International E-Waste Day is the crucial role each of us has in making circularity a reality for e-products," WEEE Forum Director General Pascal Leroy said in a statement. "This is more important than ever as our Governments go into COP26 to discuss global action to reduce carbon emissions. Every tonne of WEEE recycled avoids around 2 tonnes of CO2 emissions. If we all do the right thing with our e-waste we help to reduce harmful CO2 emissions." 2021's mountain of waste didn't grow out of nowhere. In 2019, humans generated 53.6 million tonnes (approximately 59.1 million tons), up 21 percent from 2014. If nothing changes, that number is supposed to hit 74 million tonnes (approximately 81.6 million tons) by 2030, meaning that e-waste is growing by about three to four percent every year. WEEE Forum attributes this growth to the growing consumption of electronics, smaller periods between new product releases and limited options for repairing broken items. One example of this cycle is the development and marketing of cell phones. "Fast mobile phone development, for example, has led to a market dependency on rapid replacement of older devices," Leroy told BBC News. In the U.S., around 151 million phones end up in landfills or incinerators every year, which amounts to 416,000 a day, WEEE Forum said. Overall, only 17.4 percent of electronic waste is properly recycled worldwide. This is a major waste both financially and ecologically. "A tonne of discarded mobile phones is richer in gold than a tonne of gold ore," Dr. Ruediger Kuehr, director of the UN's Sustainable Cycles (SCYCLE) Programme, said in a statement. "Embedded in 1 million cell phones, for example, are 24 kg of gold, 16,000 kg of copper, 350 kg of silver, and 14 kg of palladium — resources that could be recovered and returned to the production cycle. And if we fail to recycle these materials, new supplies need to be mined, harming the environment." Recovering these metals from electronic waste would also burn fewer greenhouse gas emissions than mining for new materials.
Could Chlorpyrifos Be Contributing to the Obesity Epidemic? --It is widely known that the controversial pesticide chlorpyrifos harms children's brains, yet despite this, it was not banned on food in the U.S. until August of this year.A little more than a week later, new science published in Nature Communications revealed the controversial pesticide could be contributing to another public health crisis."[I]ts use may contribute to the obesity epidemic," the study authors concluded. The new research builds on the recently discovered fact that adult humans have something called brown fat, a McMaster University press release explained. Previously, scientists thought only children and animals had this helpful type of fat."Brown fat is the metabolic furnace in our body, burning calories, unlike normal fat that is used to store them," senior study author Gregory Steinberg, professor of medicine and co-director of the Centre for Metabolism, Obesity, and Diabetes Research at McMaster, said in the release. "This generates heat and prevents calories from being deposited on our bodies as normal white fat. We know brown fat is activated during cold and when we eat."This internal calorie-burning process is known as diet-induced thermogenesis. However, if this process is slowed down, the body will store more calories, increasing the risk of obesity. A growing body of research has linked obesity to exposure to environmental toxins. University of California, Irvine professor Dr. Bruce Blumberg wrote a book in 2018 called The Obesogen Effect arguing that we are exposed to chemicals called obesogens that make it harder for us to lose weight. For example, endocrine disrupting chemicals interrupt the normal functioning of hormones, which are important for gaining or losing weight, as Blumberg explained in a 2018 paper. These chemicals can be present in many parts of our daily lives, including in herbicides, insecticides and fungicides. However, the study authors believe their paper is one of the first to consider how pesticides impact brown fat activity.
Bayer Loses Plot As Mexican Government Enforces Ban on GMO Imports - Mexico, the birthplace of modern corn, is no longer a welcome place for GMO corn. That is thanks to a presidential decree issued on December 31 that phases out the use of the “probably” carcinogenic herbicide glyphosate and bans the cultivation and importation of genetically modified (GM) corn. As NC reported in May, the German GMO giant Bayer at first was able to win a temporary reprieve from the government’s planned three-year phase out of the herbicide. But that decision was then overturned by Mexico’s Collegiate Court. Now, reality is dawning for Bayer and other GMO manufacturers as Mexican health regulators begin putting the new rules into practice. Last week, for the first time ever, those regulators rejected a GMO corn permit for future importation solicited by the German pharmaceutical and crop science giant. As Reuters reports, Bayer was furious, branding the decision as “unscientific”, a popular term of insult these days:“We are disappointed with the unscientific reasons that Cofepris used to deny the authorization,” the statement said, identifying the rejected corn variety as using its proprietary HT3 x SmartStax Pro technology…Bayer […] criticized what it described as continuous regulatory delays with Cofepris as well as the possibility of additional permit denials that could have a “devastating impact” on Mexican supply chains.The company said genetically modified crops including corn have undergone more safety tests than “any other crop in the history of agriculture” and have been judged safe for humans, animals and the environment. This is a curious statement coming from a company that faces thousands of lawsuits in multiple jurisdictions over allegations that Monsanto’s Roundup weed killer — now Bayer’s Roundup week killer — causes non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Bayer, now worth $46 billion — $20 billion less than what it paid for Monsanto in 2018 in a deal that ranks as one of the worst, if not the worst, corporate acquisition in history — continues to reject claims that Roundup causes cancer even as new lawsuits pile up against it. As Yves noted in May, the company “has not only not taken the product off the market or attempted to reformulate it, it hasn’t even toughened up the warnings on its labels, apparently believing that doing so would be an admission of guilt.” And now it’s hurling abuse at the Mexican government over its decision, guided primarily by the precautionary principle, to halt GMO imports. Industry lobby groups in Mexico have also blasted the ban, warning that if it is interpreted to include animal feed or other industrial uses, it could fuel food inflation in the country. This is no idle warning. Food prices in the country are already surging, after seven straight months of rising year-on-year food inflation. For the policy to pay off, the government’s support of Mexican producers, in particular small-scale farmers, will need to translate into swift, significant, sustainable production increases. Greenpeace insists it is possible and has published a report to help governmental agencies “gradually replace the use, acquisition, distribution, promotion and import of [glyphosate].”
The American Bumblebee Has Vanished From Eight States -The American bumblebee (Bombus pensylvanicus)—once abundant and found lazily floating around in grasslands, open prairies, and some urban areas throughout the United States—now face a rapidly declining population. According to a proposed rule released by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the species' population has dropped nearly 90 percent and could qualify for protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the Independent's Graeme Massie reports. Despite dwindling population numbers, the American bumblebee is not protected in any state or by federal law. American bumblebees are a vital pollinator for wildflowers and crops, and their decline could have severe consequences for the environment. The species has completely vanished from eight states, including Maine, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont, Idaho, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Oregon, Ben Turner reports for Live Science. The bumblebee species have declined by 99 percent in New York. In the Midwest and Southeast, population numbers have dropped by more than 50 percent.U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service officials first conducted a 90-day review of the American bumblebee—along with the Siuslaw hairy-necked tiger beetle and the Long Valley speckled dace—and found that the species should be further studied to determine whether they should be added to the Lists of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants, per the Independent. Depending on the results of a forthcoming year-long review, the American bumblebee could be legally protected under the ESA, which would provide rules and framework for saving the species from extinction, reports Live Science. Currently, only two bumblebee species, the rusty patched and Franklin's, receive ESA protection.The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's announcement came about after an August 2021 petition for protecting the American bumblebee under the ESA was filed by the Center for Biological Diversity and the Bombus Pollinator Association of Law Students, an Albany Law School student group. "This is an important first step in preventing the extinction of this fuzzy black-and-yellow beauty that was once a familiar sight," said petition co-author Jess Tyler, a Center for Biological Diversity scientist, in a statement. "To survive unchecked threats of disease, habitat loss, and pesticide poisoning, American bumblebees need the full protection of the Endangered Species Act right now."
Government Kills Wolf Pups Students Studied and Honored as Their Idaho High School Mascot - The federal government killed eight wolf pups that were being studied by students at Timberline High School in Boise, Idaho, prompting an outcry from conservationists, animal welfare advocates and the students themselves. The deaths were discovered when biologists tracking the pups' den discovered it empty in the spring, The Washington Post reported. Conservationists then checked a wolf "mortality list" from the Idaho Department of Fish and Game and discovered that the pups were killed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Wildlife Services."I understand a lot of people think wolves are dangerous animals," Timberline HIgh School student Michel Liao told The Washington Post. "But it was so shocking to see that federal agents were the ones to come into a pups' den to kill them, even though the pups didn't do anything."The discovery comes at a perilous time for Idaho's wolves. Gray wolves were stripped of their Endangered Species Act protections in the last days of the Trump administration. Since then, several states have taken aggressive stances towards managing their wolf populations, and Idaho is no exception. The state passed a bill in April allowing hunters and private contractors to kill up to 90 percent of its wolves.In response to the bill and the killings of the wolf pups, wildlife advocates sent a letter to the USDA in August urging it to halt the killing of wolf pups on public lands."There is nothing biologically sound or socially acceptable about killing wolf pups on federal lands, especially when wolves are under significant eradication pressure," the letter said. "Wolf pups pose no threat to domestic livestock — in Idaho, or anywhere in the Western United States."The Biden administration, however, defended the killing of the pups in an October 1 letter, arguing that they were necessary to protect livestock. They said that 108 livestock had been killed in the area, and that killing the young wolves would prompt adult wolves to relocate, reducing the overall number of killings needed to protect livestock."While we understand your objections, it is important that our management professionals have access to all available tools to effectively respond to wildlife depredation," USDA undersecretary of marketing and regulatory programs Jenny Lester Moffitt wrote in the letter. "As such, we cannot stop using any legal, humane management options, including the lethal removal of juvenile wolves."
Rodents the Size of St. Bernards Swarm an Exclusive Gated Community - WSJ—The lavish villas of Nordelta have for years hosted bucolic getaways for Argentina’s wealthy, protected in an enclave where industry titans and soccer stars seek escape from the torments of city life. Yet even an exclusive gated community can’t keep out the world’s biggest rodent. The capybaras living in Nordelta can reach 140 pounds. Picture a guinea pig the size of a St. Bernard with chompers like a beaver, an insatiable herbivore appetite and XXL-size droppings. They roam about in record numbers, munching on manicured lawns and scuffling with family pets. In August, a security camera caught a food-delivery worker getting knocked off his motorcycle after colliding with a capybara in a dark intersection. The furry, water-loving creatures were there first—Nordelta was built on their wetland habitat—prompting awkward efforts at detente with the colossal rodents. Neighbors are split, viewing them as either vermin or victim. “I’m not anti-capybara; I want to scratch their cute little bellies as much as anyone else,” said Gustavo Iglesias, a 62-year-old real-estate broker and longtime resident. “The problem is that their population is out of control, and people are too scared to do anything. No one wants to look like they’re opposed to nature.” Mr. Iglesias’s lakeside garden gets a daily serving of jumbo scat dumped by the two dozen or so capybaras that lounge in his yard, he said. That was bad, but the last straw was when his dog Lucho limped home with a bloody pair of deep gashes that looked like the handiwork of rodent incisors. The capybaras seem to enjoy the good life in Nordelta. They sunbathe and graze at man-made lagoons, protected from such natural predators as jaguars and caimans, the South American alligator. Residents who find the capybaras a nuisance aren’t sure what they can do. Hunting the rodents requires approval from environmental regulators. Dueling WhatsApp chat groups have formed in recent months—one pro-capybara, one against. Nordelta’s man-versus-nature saga is drawing national attention. Environmentalists tied to Argentina’s leftist government want the capybaras left undisturbed by the community’s affluent members. “I was outraged by the Nordelta residents complaining,” said Adrián Mazza, a 47-year-old tour guide at a national park. “It’s the humans that invaded the capybara’s territory.” Others said the rodents should be relocated, citing traffic accidents and the damage from capybaras chewing up lawns and palm trees.
Climate change is causing problems for puffins - Maine's population of rare Atlantic puffins took a hit this year, as the number of chicks to survive a tough summer plummeted.The state's coastal bays and the Gulf of Maine is among the fastest-warming large water bodies on the planet, making the puffins' fate a test-case for how climate change could disrupt marine ecosystems worldwide.The little clown-colored birds are abundant in Canada, but in the U.S. they were hunted to near extirpation by the early 1900s. Scientists and volunteers later helped them to re-establish several island colonies off Maine, where they now number around 3,000.Over the last decade, though, a series of "marine heatwaves" and intense storms upended their living conditions. This year was one of the worst yet, and the number of puffin chicks to live through the season plunged."In some cases it was significantly worse than we've seen in the past," said Linda Welch, a biologist with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.On one offshore island she watched closely, Petit Manan, Welch said 90% of the nesting puffins failed to raise a chick. "Many of the chicks that we classified as fledging, reaching the age where they leave their burrow and go to sea, the birds were kind of 40% to 50% smaller than we normally see," she said. "We were calling them 'micro-puffins.' " The birds faced a complex of challenges; nests were flooded by some of the heaviest rains in a hundred years, exposing chicks to cold and predators. That was especially hard on another rare bird that nests in the open, Artic tern. But it was tough for young puffins, too, who were being reared in burrows within the jumbled boulders that line the island's shores.And their parents had a hard time finding herring and other North Atlantic prey they usually dive for, which scientists think may have retreated to cooler waters too deep or far-off for the birds.The adult puffins ranged farther than usual in a foraging commute that scientists say limited their time to keep chicks w arm in their nests.
Harrowing photos show a 39-foot dead whale wedged on the bow of a tanker, graphically highlighting how ship strikes endanger the largest animals on Earth --A shocking image shows a dead 39-foot whale hanging limply over the bow of a Japanese tanker in the port of Mizushima, Japan.The Mizushima Coast Guard's Office confirmed to Insider that the whale found dead was a male Bryde whale, weighing five tons. Locals caught sight of the whale as the tanker pulled into the harbor in the western city of Kurashiki last month. The images were first published in Yomiuri Shimbun, which is one of Japan's five national newspapers.The ship's crew were reportedly unaware they had been dragging the whale with them as they sailed through the Pacific, according to Yomiuri Shimbun.A spokesperson from the Mizushima Coast Guard Department said this was the first time they had witnessed anything like this. They would be investigating to see how such an incident can be prevented in the future.The name of the ship was obscured in the photos distributed by the Coast Guard.Ship strikes are known to be one of the leading causes of death for endangered and vulnerable whale populations, according to World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).Michael Fishbach, executive director and co-founder of the Great Whale Conservancy, an environmental NGO based in North Carolina, told Insider that a dozen whales are killed by a ship for each one that is recorded."Because of the negative buoyancy of the whales, they just sink straight to the bottom after they die, except on rare occasions like this one, where the whales are struck in the center of their body, and you have a situation as you see in the above image."Fishbach told Insider: "There's no question that the number of whales killed by ships each year is in the 1000s each year."When discussing what needs to change to save these whales, Fishbach said a body designated by the industry that can approach the shipping companies with a "calm, combined effort" to put forward measures and changes "to put a stop to this."The whale specialist added that approximately 60% of the ships involved in whale strikes are container vessels.
Oceana Mission to Mexico Uncovers Invasive Species and Coral Diseases on Pristine Reefs -- In August, scientists from Oceana conducted the ocean conservation organization's first-ever expedition to investigate and document the condition of two reefs in the Gulf of Mexico using cutting-edge technology. Assessing the data, they're now reporting invasive species and deadly coral disease in Bajos del Norte, a pristine national park.The mission, called Project Alacranes, focused on Scorpion Reef (Arrecife Alacranes in Spanish) and the Bajos del Norte National Park. These two areas contain some of the greatest biodiversity in the Gulf. Ten scientists with various specialties monitored corals, mollusks, crustaceans, echinoderms, invertebrates and fish. In Bajos del Norte, the team found the reef "mostly healthy" but noted "previously undocumented threats" including invasive lionfish and deadly coral disease.Oceana's team explored seven sites in the area, covering over 7,500 square feet. They captured 29,352 photographs, which will help create 3D maps of the reef bottom so the team can continue their analyses out of the water. This is the first time such technology and methods have been used in Mexico. "We identified extraordinary seascapes, full of life, confirming the great value of this area," said Mariana Reyna, Oceana's expedition leader. "The presence of juvenile fish indicates that this reef is a vital place for the development of the species, that is, they need the conditions of this site to grow and migrate, or grow and fulfill their life cycle feeding other species." The scientists' "first stage" results showed brain and flower corals dead or with "very advanced lesions," aligning with potential Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease. Other coral diseases were also present, including yellow bands and black spots, as well as various levels of coral bleaching.None of these unfortunate phenomena were observed on a previous visit to Bajos del Norte in 2019 by a different group. The extent and speed of the corals' deterioration in the interim time is alarming, the scientists said.
Farmers in California abandoning their fields, U.S. - Farmers in California's San Joaquin Valley are abandoning their fields due to drought that resulted in water allotments cut by a third. Farmers in this region, reportedly the most productive agricultural region globally, grow 250 different crops on 17% of the irrigated land in the United States.As of October 12, 2021, 100% of the state is in some form of drought, with 93% in Severe to Exceptional drought conditions, 87% in Extreme to Exceptional, and 45% in Exceptional drought, according to U.S. Drought Monitor. "Our water supply has gotten even more limited. It's become less reliable and less predictable," said Joe Del Bosque, owner of Del Bosque Farms.1 Del Bosque said the drought, described by officials as megadrought, has forced him to change what he grows and how he operates his farm. "We've always known that a lack of water is a potential hardship for our farm. But to get to the point where it completely stops the farm — we never thought that would happen," said Del Bosque.
Nearly 6 million children are driven into severe hunger by the hot, dry shifts of a strong el Niño - Over the last year and a half, the 1-in-100-year Covid-19 pandemic drove millions of children into hunger. But every four to seven years, an El Niño causes weather patterns to shift across the tropics, leading to warmer temperatures and precipitation changes and widespread impacts on agriculture, infectious diseases, conflicts and more. During a single bad El Niño, nearly 6 million children are driven into undernutrition as a result, according to a study in Nature Communications. That’s at least 70 percent and perhaps up to three times the number of children who have gone hungry because of the pandemic.“It would have been very difficult to prepare the world for a pandemic that few saw coming, but we can’t say the same about El Niño events that have a potentially much greater impact on the long-term growth and health of children,” says Amir Jina, an author of the paper and assistant professor at the Harris School of Public Policy. “Scientists can forecast an approaching El Niño up to 6 months in advance, allowing the international community to intervene to prevent the worst impacts. Our study helps to quantify those impacts on child nutrition to guide global public investments in food insecure areas.”Jina and his coauthors, Jesse Anttila-Hughes and Gordon McCord, provide the first estimate of El Niño’s impacts on child nutrition throughout the global tropics. They do so by assembling data on more than a million children spanning four decades and all developing country regions, a dataset that represents about half of the more than 600 million-strong under-five population globally. Their analysis finds that warmer, drier El Niño conditions increase undernutrition in children across most of the tropics, where 20 percent of children are already deemed severely underweight by the World Health Organization (WHO). That percentage ticks up by 2.9 percent during El Niño years, affecting millions of children.In the case of the severe 2015 El Niño, the number of children at or below the WHO threshold for severely underweight jumped by nearly 6 percent—or an additional nearly 6 million children driven into hunger. While the children’s weight appears to recuperate with time, the shock on their nutrition at such a young age stunts their growth in later years.
2021 is expected to be another La Niña winter season --It’s time to gear up for a few more months of especially strange weather. Yesterday NOAA announced that La Niña conditions have been slowly brewing over the past month and have an 87 percent chance of continuing over December, January, and February. La Niña, simply put, is colder than normal sea-surface temperatures across the Pacific ocean and balances out the El Niño half of the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The Oscillation rotates between warm, or El Niño, conditions to cold, La Niña, conditions every two to seven years on average. La Niña occurs when super strong trade winds push warm water closer to Asia, bringing an upswing of cold water from deep below the ocean to the surface off the western side of the Americas, according to NOAA. Chilly waters push the jet stream northward, making for a warmer winter in the South and a cooler than normal one in the North. That could mean weather in the Americas could get just a little bit scary—including a boost in hurricane-favorable conditions that will last longer into the fall, a worsening of already dramatic droughts across the Southwest, and building the recipe for a cold and stormy winter in the Northern US, and possibly spurring tornado activity in other parts of the US come spring. The South, however, may have a warm and dry winter season. La Niña also arrived last fall before settling out in May, following two years of a “weak El Niño” season, according to Washington Post meteorologist Matthew Cappucci. Between this May and Thursday’s announcement, “neutral” conditions have been occurring across the globe. This year’s hurricane season has already been one for the record books with seven hurricanes, four of which are considered major. La Niña’s impact on hurricane season comes down to “wind shear,” or the change of wind speed and direction in relation to atmospheric height. More shear over the Atlantic is what ends the hurricane season, Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University told CNN. But, La Niña has an effect that increases shear, a measurable shift in wind speed, over the Pacific, which lowers vertical wind shear over the already tumultuous Atlantic ocean. According to Climate.gov, more hurricanes form in the deep tropics from easterly waves, which can make for trouble in the Caribbean and east coast of the US. “Last year is a great example of this, as we had six hurricanes and five major hurricanes in October-November,” Klotzbach said. “While we certainly don’t expect to see that much activity the remainder of this season, the development of La Niña does leave the window open for more late-season storm activity this year.” The effect that climate change may have on future El Niño and La Niña impacts is still up in the air, but experts say that there’s a chance extreme ENSO events may become more common, and some impacts, like coral bleaching and storm activity in the tropical Pacific during El Niño, have already been seen.
How La Niña may impact winter weather in the U.S. : NPR --La Niña will most likely be joining us for the winter again, according to federal forecasters.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced on Thursday that La Niña conditions have developed and are expected to continue, with an 87% chance that they will be in place from December to February.La Niña (translated from Spanish as "little girl") is not a storm, but a climate pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean every few years and can impact weather around the world.The U.S. is expected to feel its effects on temperature and precipitation, which could in turn have consequences for things such as hurricanes, tornadoes and droughts.Forecasters point out that this is actually the second La Niña winter in a row, a not-uncommon phenomenon that they call a "double-dip." The most recent period lasted from August 2020 to April 2021. (More below on what has happened since.)"Our scientists have been tracking the potential development of a La Niña since this summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold," Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. "La Niña also influences weather across the country during the winter, and it will influence our upcoming temperature and precipitation outlooks." NOAA will release its official winter outlook on Oct. 21. In the meantime, here's a primer on how La Niña works and what it could mean for different parts of the country.
Sudden drop in temperatures leads to early snow in parts of China (video) A sudden drop in temperatures recently have led to early snowfalls in some parts of China, surprising many people.Yijun County in Shaanxi ushered in the first snowfall of this autumn on Sunday morning, October 10, 2021.Other parts of Shaanxi, including Binzhou and Langxian counties, were also hit by surprising snowfalls.A snow shower that started to sweep the Greater Khingan Mountains on Saturday afternoon has disrupted traffic and caused power outages. Local authorities have initiated emergency plans to clear the accumulated snow and restore normal traffic and power in the affected areas.
Potent western storm shifts into the 4-corners and Plains, U.S. - Heavy snow and powerful winds in the Great Basin mountains, Rockies, and into the High Plains will create hazardous travel conditions, NWS warned on October 12, 2021. Severe storms developing in the Plains ahead of this front may have damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. An early-season heavy snow event is in progress across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, October 12, as a large area of low pressure continues to develop just to the south, NWS forecasters Kong and Oravec noted.1 Snow is expanding in coverage across these areas and is expected to become heavier as the day progresses. The low pressure system is forecast to intensify further through tonight as it tracks northeastward across central High Plains towards the northern Plains. The snow is expected to be quite heavy to the west of the storm track over the northern High Plains tonight. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are currently in effect where snowfall totals of 30 - 60 cm (1 to 2 feet) are possible. In addition, the heavy snow will be accompanied with very strong and gusty north to northwesterly winds during the height of the storm. This will likely result in blowing and drifting of the snow as the storm continues to intensify. By Wednesday, the heavy snow and high winds will likely spread further north into the western Dakotas and eastern Montana. This same system will also support increasing thunderstorm activity tonight into Wednesday across large portions of the Plains ahead of a strong cold front pushing eastward across these areas. Heavy rains, isolated flash flooding and the risk of severe weather will accompany these storms, with the greatest risk of severe weather and flash flooding across portions of the central to southern Plains. Additional heavy rains and the risk of Flash Flooding will push back into portions of the southern Plains Wednesday night into Thursday as moisture associated with currently Hurricane "Pamela" off the west coast of Mexico is transported northeastward into the above-mentioned frontal zone which is forecast to become stationary over the southern Plains at this time. While Pamela will likely weaken rapidly when it moves inland into western Mexico Wednesday, its associated moisture will have a longer-lived impact as it is transported northeast into the frontal zone across the southern Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, supporting the heavy rain and flash flooding potential.Much below-average temperatures are likely from the northern High Plains, westward through the Rockies and Great Basin, while much above-average temperatures will persist across nearly all of the central to eastern U.S.
In 2021, US on Pace for Most Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters Since Records Began --The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Tuesday in its latest monthlyreport that the United States endured 18 “billion-dollar weather and climate disasters” through the first nine months of 2021, putting this year on pace to be among the worst for such catastrophes.For decades, scientists have sounded the alarm that extreme weather would become more frequent and intense amid the fossil fuel-driven climate emergency. With 18 calamities costing at least $1 billion already on the books and three months to go, 2021 is second only to 2020, when there were 22 such events.Before it was surpassed last year, the previous annual record for billion-dollar disasters was 16—reached in 2011 and matched in 2017. While last year saw a greater number of billion-dollar disasters, 2021 is outpacing 2020 through September. Furthermore, although not all of the destruction has been calculated, this year’s events have already proven more expensive, causing $104.8 billion in damages compared with $100.4 billion in 2020. The costliest years to date are 2017 and 2005, when Hurricanes Harvey and Katrina devastated Houston and New Orleans, respectively. Communities across the nation have been ravaged by a variety of extreme weather events in 2021, which have resulted in the deaths of 538 people.Some of the most notable billion-dollar disasters that occurred between January and September include the winter storm that wrecked Texas’ isolated, deregulated, and fossil fuel-dependent power grid, causing dozens to freeze to death; relentless Western drought, heatwaves, andwildfires that have burned nearly 6.5 million acres to date and killed over two hundred people; and the highly destructive Hurricane Ida, which barreled into the Gulf Coast’s extensive petrochemical infrastructure, leaving dozens of oil spills in its wake, and also pummeled the Northeast, adding more casualties. Since NOAA started keeping such records in 1980, the U.S. has been hammered by 308 billion-dollar disasters, claiming 15,030 lives and costing roughly $2.1 trillion—with annual averages of just over seven events, 358 deaths, and approximately $50 billion in damages. The average number of annual billion-dollar disasters has skyrocketed from about three events nationwide per year in the 1980s to more than 12 events per year in the 2010s. The average number of annual deaths has also increased over the decades, from 287 per year in the 1980s to 522 per year in the 2010s. From 2016 to 2020—the five hottest years on record—there were more than 16 separate billion-dollar disasters per year, on average. Combined, the 81 events killed nearly 4,000 people, or more than a quarter of the death toll since 1980, and cost $640.3 billion, accounting for over 30% of the 40-year financial toll.According to their new analysis, the average time between billion-dollar disasters has declined from 82 days in the 1980s to just 18 days on average in the past five years (2016-2020).
Over 1.75 million people affected by floods, 17 000 homes collapsed in north China's Shanxi Province - (video) Continuous downpours affecting north China's Shanxi Province since the start of October have affected more than 1.75 million people and forced the evacuation of more than 120 000.In addition, floods damaged over 190 000 ha (469 500 acres) of crops and destroyed more than 17 000 houses, according to the provincial emergency management department.The Shanxi meteorological bureau said over 60 weather stations in the province reported record high accumulated precipitation from October 2 to 7, with some areas seeing 3 times the normal average rainfall. Levels of rivers have increased, including the Yellow River, China's second-longest river. Additionally, a dyke breach along the Fenhe River, a tributary of the Yellow River, caused severe flooding in Yuncheng.The floods further exacerbated China's major energy shortage as provincial authorities suspended output at 60 coal mines.
Storm Ballos dumps over a month's worth of rain in Greece capital - A large storm system dumped more than a month's worth of rain in the Greece capital of Athens on Thursday, prompting closures and flooding streets. In another Greek city, torrential rain led to a dramatic rescue when a bus tumbled into a large sinkhole. The storm, which began to impact the country on Thursday, was named Ballos by Greece’s National Meteorological Service. As an area of low pressure intensified over the Mediterranean Sea, it pulled moisture northward and into Greece, which led to heavy rain, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards. "Southeast Europe typically see storms like this during the late fall and winter months, so Storm Ballos arrived earlier than normal for the region and unloaded an impressive amount of rain,” Tyler Roys, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, said. He added that a storm system unleashed heavy rain and left the ground saturated just a few days earlier and additional rain quickly caused flash flooding. The previous storm, which was given the name Athena, caused destruction due to flooding in the fire-ravaged North Evia, according to Greek Reporter, a media outlet that covers Greece through a national lens.
Tropical Storm "Pamela" forms, forecast to impact Mexico as a major hurricane - Tropical Storm "Pamela" formed at 21:00 UTC on October 10, 2021, about 425 km (265 miles) SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico as the 16th named storm of the 2021 Pacific hurricane season.While there are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect, Pamela is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, October 13, and it could bring life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, NHC said.1Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or early Wednesday and could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be required for portions of this area early Monday.At 03:00 UTC on October 11, the center of Tropical Storm "Pamela" was located about 845 km (525 miles) SSE of the southern tip of Baja California. It had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), minimum central pressure of 1 002 hPa, and was moving WNW at 19 km/h (12 mph).Interests in southern Baja California del Sur, Sinaloa, Durango, and Nayarit should monitor the progress of Pamela. Watches could be issued for a portion of those states on Monday.A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night and an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico as a major hurricane on Wednesday.Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane "Pamela" - Life-threatening storm surge, dangerous winds, and threat of significant flash flooding and mudslides, Mexico - Pamela regained hurricane strength as its center came closer to the coast of Mexico on October 13, 2021. The system is forecast to make landfall on the west-central coast of Mexico this morning (LT) and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials, NHC said.Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to continue to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma later today or Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts.1As of 09:00 UTC on October 13, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa and a Tropical Storm Warning for North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata; South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes; Is las Marias.2At the time, the center of Hurricane "Pamela" was located about 130 km (80 miles) WSW of Mazatlan, Mexico. The system had maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph), minimum central pressure of 987 hPa, and was moving NE at 22 km/h (14 mph).A faster northeastward motion is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area later this morning and move inland over western Mexico later today.
Coffins Still Strewn Across Louisiana Town Six Weeks After Hurricane Ida - More than six weeks after Hurricane Ida made landfall on Southeast Louisiana, coffins are still strewn across the community of Ironton.Hurricane Ida's storm surge left the multiple-ton vaults strewn around the town, "like they were cardboard boxes," Rev. Haywood Johnson Jr. told the AP. The lingering coffins are a visceral illustration of the trauma and abandonment of small communities like Ironton after the massive storm. "Once you bury a relative, you expect that to be the permanent resting place," Rev. Johnson lamented. Louisiana recovering the dead after Hurricane Ida. youtu.beAs reported by The Associated Press:Families sometimes strap down graves or use sandbags to keep them in place ahead of a storm, said Arbie Goings, a task force member who is also a retired funeral director. When they do get displaced, identifying remains can be challenging, especially in cases of long dead people with fewer, if any, ways to match things like dental records or DNA.Some caskets have a little plastic tube — called a memory tube — screwed into its end where a funeral home can put identifying information, Goings said. In some cases, they've found the name at the foot of the casket or embroidered into a piece of cloth covering the bottom part of the person, he said.Often family members can give key identifying details. He recalled one case where they identified a woman's remains by the marbles her grandchildren put in her casket in honor of her love of the game.
Tropical Storm "Kompasu" drenches Luzon, leaving 9 people dead and 11 missing, Philippines -- Tropical Storm "Kompasu" -- known as Maring in the Philippines -- dropped heavy rains on the country's most populous island of Luzon over the past 2 days, leaving at least 9 people dead and 11 others missing. Kompasu is the 18th named storm of the 2021 Pacific typhoon season.The national disaster agency said it was verifying information from its regional units that reported 4 people killed in landslides in northern Benguet province and 5 killed in flash floods in Palawan, an island province in the country's southwest.Meanwhile, search and rescue operations are still in progreess for 11 people missing, mostly due to landslies.1"Eleven municipalities were flooded but the floods subsided this morning," Cagayan provincial information officer Rogelio Sending told AFP.2Major highways and bridges were flooded, Sending said, adding that the water was retreating Tuesday, October 12.At 06:00 UTC on October 12, the center of Tropical Storm "Kompasu" was located about 511 km (318 miles) southeast of Hong Kong. The storm had maximum 1- and 10-minute sustained winds of 100 km/h (65 mph), with gusts up to 150 km/h (90 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure was 975 hPa, and the system was moving west at 26 km/h (16 mph).Kompasu is expected to reach China's Hainan around 12:00 UTC on October 13 and move over it with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph). After hitting China, forecast track takes Kompasu toward northern Vietnam where landfall is expected early October 15 (UTC) with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph).
Shifting winds challenge crews fighting 15,000-acre Alisal Fire near Santa Barbara | KTLA --Shifting winds posed new challenges for firefighters battling a blaze in Southern California coastal mountains that threatened ranches and rural homes and kept a major highway shut down for days. The Alisal Fire charred more than 24 square miles (15,442 acres) of dense chaparral in the Santa Ynez Mountains west of Santa Barbara. Containment was just 5% Wednesday evening.While the scenic region along the Pacific shoreline is lightly populated, the blaze was a threat to more than 100 homes, ranches and other buildings, fire officials said.Fire crews were protecting Rancho del Cielo, which was once owned by Ronald and Nancy Reagan and was known as the Western White House during his presidency. The 688-acre (278-hectare) ranch where Reagan hosted world leaders sits atop the mountain range, above the flames feeding on dense chaparral and grasses.Based on staff reports from the ranch, the fire was about a half-mile (0.8 kilometers) away Wednesday evening, but that section of the blaze was not as active as others, said Jessica Jensen, vice president and chief of staff of the Young America’s Foundation, which now operates the ranch.“We are thankful that there has been no fire activity on the actual Reagan Ranch property. The Ranch, itself, is still in a very defensible position,” Jensen said in an email to The Associated Press.
Alisal Fire Within Half-Mile Of Ronald Reagan’s Santa Barbara Ranch – The Alisal Fire near Santa Barbara grew from 15,445 to 16,801 acres overnight into Thursday, with flames coming to within a half-mile of the historic Reagan Ranch there.“I would say that the burn line is between a quarter- and a half-mile from us at its closest point,” Andrew Coffin, Director of the Reagan Ranch, told Deadline on Thursday morning. Coffin, who remains on site, said his estimate was based on a visual evaluation and review of the published maps. The fabled ranch, which served as a “western White House” during Reagan’s presidency, is within the zone of the evacuation order issued by the Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Department, but Coffin and a four other staff members have stayed on to assist firefighters battling the blaze. The home now is owned and cared for by the conservative Young America’s Foundation.“We have remained on the Reagan property with the full knowledge of and in cooperation with fire personnel,” Coffin told Deadline. “Thankfully, they know well both the unique, historic nature of the Reagan property and the extensive resources we have on site, including robust water supplies & distribution and defensible open spaces around the Reagan home.” In fact, firefighting helicopters have been taking advantage of the property’s two lakes, snorkeling up water to fight the fire as it advanced. It’s a decided advantage, given that other airborne resources have had to fly more than 30 minutes to access water. Coffin says brush clearance has created 75 feet of clearance around the Reagan adobe — aside from two heritage oaks. Winds have been a concern throughout the firefight, but “both overnight, and especially now this morning, winds are very, very calm,” said Coffin. That’s good news, and it might continue to hold true, as an incident command statement predicts “light and mostly onshore winds expected on Thursday.” While onshore winds potentially could push the fire toward the ranch, the fact that they are light should mean firefighting aircraft — which have been grounded by high winds for much of the blaze — will be able to mitigate spread in the area.
Expanded Evacuations for Alisal Fire that Grows to 16,801 Acres The Alisal Fire stands at 16,801 acres burned and 5% containment. Evacuation order expands west, including Gaviota & Gaviota Beach. Highway 101 remains closed in both directions. Unknown time frame for reopening.On Wednesday, fire crews held the fire to the north along West Camino Cielo. They completed a successful burnout operation from Refugio Road to the Camino Cielo. The fire also slowed along its eastern flank in the younger fuels from the 2016 Sherpa Fire. Winds drove the fire westward forcing evacuations west of Arroyo Hondo to the intersection of California Highway 101 and Highway 1 towards Gaviota. The plan for today (Thursday), will be to halt the spread to the northeast above Refugio Canyon. Crews will continue to use aviation assets as conditions allow. On the western edge, firefighters will work on keeping the fire from crossing Hwy 101 at Gaviota. Focus will be on slowing the fire’s expansion to the west and re-opening Hwy 101. Crews continue to engage the Refugio area, as well as clearing downed trees along rail lines. Additional aircraft will amplify efforts beginning today. Winds are the primary force behind fire growth. Expect wind-swithes throughout the day. Northeast winds switch to westerly in the afternoon and back to northeast in the evening. Strong down sloping winds will continue to impact fire behavior over the next several evenings.
Air quality advisory in place for L.A., Orange counties due to heavy smoke from Alisal Fire --Heavy smoke from the Alisal Fire near Santa Barbara was moving southeast, prompting an air quality advisory for the region through Thursday afternoon.Areas of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties could experience poor air quality due to smoke from the wildfire, the South Coast Air Quality Management District warned.“The smoke will move further inland, and elevated AQI levels are expected in the entire South Coast Air Basin on Wednesday evening throughout Thursday afternoon,” AQMD officials said in an alert.Smokey conditions are expected along the Santa Barbara south coast and in coastal Ventura and L.A. county areas by Thursday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service. L.A. and Orange counties were both expected to see air quality levels that are unhealthy for sensitive groups.Breathing in fine particulate matter can lead to heart attacks, asthma aggravation, decreased lung function, coughing or difficulty breathing. It may also lead to premature death in people with heart or lung disease.Residents in affected areas were advised to close all windows and doors, and run their air conditioners or air purifiers.As of Thursday morning, the Alisal Fire had burned 16,801 acres and was just 5% contained after breaking out Monday on a ridge south of Solvang, along the south coast of Santa Barbara County.More than 1,300 firefighters were battling the blaze Thursday, planning to make water drops from aircraft all day to support crews defending structures on the ground.Shifting winds pose a challenge for firefighters as they work to contain the fire threatening more than 100 homes, ranches and other buildings.
25% of all critical infrastructure in the US is at risk of failure due to flooding, new report finds -As a massive investment to repair roads and adapt to climate change faces an uncertain fate in Congress, a new report finds much of the country's infrastructure is already at risk of being shut down by flooding. And as the planet heats up, the threat is expected to grow.Today, one-in-four pieces of all critical infrastructure in the US — including police and fire stations, hospitals, airports and wastewater treatment facilities — face substantial risk of being rendered inoperable by flooding, according to a new report released today by the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research and technology group that assesses the threat posed by flooding across the country.The report also found nearly 2 million miles of road — 23% of US roadways — are already at risk of becoming impassable due to flooding.To provide what First Street says is the fullest picture to date of community-level flood vulnerability, the researchers examined five categories across the Lower 48 and the District of Columbia: Critical infrastructure; social infrastructure, including museums, government buildings and schools; roads; commercial properties; and residential properties.The report used estimates of operational flood risk from official governing bodies to determine the amount of inundation it would take to knock different types of facilities or services offline. The researchers then overlaid the kinds of flood events that can be expected in an area at least once every two years to gauge community risk.First Street's past reports have focused on the unknown risk of flooding faced by US homeowners, and the inadequate flood insurance coverage many of them have or, often, don't have. Experts say comprehensive assessments like the new report are critical as the country weighs how to adapt to a climate-altered future. "Even if your home is safe and secure from a specific intensity of flooding, if flooding is becoming more common and destructive in your community, your property value may be threatened too," said Hamed Moftakhari, an assistant professor of environmental engineering at the University of Alabama, who was not involved with the First Street report.
One-quarter of critical infrastructure at risk of failure from flooding: research - A new risk assessment found that around 25 percent of all critical infrastructure in the U.S. is at risk of becoming inoperable due to flooding. For its report titled "The 3rd National Risk Assessment: Infrastructure on the Brink," nonprofit research group First Street Foundation looked at residential properties, roads, commercial properties, critical infrastructure and social infrastructure. According to the report, 25 percent — or 35,776 critical infrastructure facilities — are at risk of being affected by worsening flood events. By the year 2051, the number of critical infrastructure facilities at risk is estimated to rise to 37,786. The same report found that 14 percent of residential properties, 25 percent of roads and 20 percent of commercial properties are similarly at risk. "In the United States, many infrastructure discussions over the past 20 years have been centered around possible physical attacks, energy crises, and terrorism, but climate change has a higher probability of significant impact on the Nation’s infrastructure," the foundation wrote. "With an increasing number of flooding events making U.S. headlines, there is a greater awareness of the economic and human cost that flood-damaged infrastructure can produce," it added. Jeremy Porter of First Street Foundation told The Associated Press, "Our work aims to determine the amount of flooding that would render infrastructure either inoperable or inaccessible." "By applying research on depth thresholds and comparing them to flood data and probability metrics, we can determine roughly the extent of flooding that would cause a road to be impassable to cars, or a hospital to be shut down," he added. The report on the risks facing U.S. infrastructure comes out as Congress is stalled in passing a bipartisan infrastructure bill that includes $550 billion in funding for new investments into roads, bridges, broadband, water and rail. The bill also calls for $40 billion for the repair, replacement and rehabilitation of bridges. These investments would also address climate change and resilience. The Senate passed the bill in September and it has since been held up in the House as moderate and progressive Democrats spar over a separate reconciliation package that would spend big on climate change and drastically expand the country's social safety net. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has set an Oct. 31 deadline to vote on the infrastructure bill, while Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has said he hopes to have both bills to President Biden by that date.
Rural Alaska Has a Bridge Problem as Permafrost Thaws and Crossing River Ice Gets Riskier with Climate Change - America’s bridges are in rough shape. Of the nearly 620,000 bridges over roads, rivers and other waterways across the U.S., more than 43,500 of them, about 7%, are considered “structurally deficient.” In Alaska, bridges face a unique and growing set of problems as the planet warms.Permafrost, the frozen ground beneath large parts of the state, is thawing with the changing climate, and that’s shifting the soil and everything on it. Bridges are also increasingly crucial for rural residents who can no longer trust the stability of the rivers’ ice in spring and fall.The infrastructure bill making its way through Congress currently includes US$40 billion in new federal funds for bridgeconstruction, maintenance and repairs – the largest investment in bridges since construction of the interstate highway system started in the 1950s. In that funding is about$225 million to address 140 structurally deficient bridges throughout Alaska.Given the high cost to build and maintain bridges in rural Alaska, and the increasing risk to their structures as the climate warms, we believe the bill is a good start but hardly sufficient for a growing rural problem. Alaska is warming faster than any other U.S. state. As Alaska’s temperature rises, rivers and lakes are freezing later, thawing earlier and forming thinner ice. When the ice is unstable or unpredictable, people who rely on crossing the river are stuck and the risk of snowmobile fatalitiesrises. Rural residents often use rivers to travel between communities, either as icy roads in winter or waterways in summer, and they often have to cross rivers to hunt, gather traditional foods or reach health care facilities.Alaska has just over 1,600 bridges that are open to the public – the fourth-lowest total of any state, despite being the largest state by land area. Only about 44% of those bridges are considered to be in good shape. Building bridges here is an expensive, complex process, and they require long-term maintenance that gets complicated in rural areas. It’s a challenge with two important facets: one is structural, and the other human.From an engineering perspective, bridges are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. They are particularly sensitive to seasonal freezing effects, which can quickly change their mechanical properties and structural integrity.Alaska has some of the harshest conditions for infrastructure, with temperatures ranging from minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 62 Celsius) to 100 F (37.8 C). Snowfall can reach 81 feet (24.7 meters) per year in some areas, and an ice-rich permafrost underlies 80% of the state.One of the most important factors affecting the service life of a bridge is corrosion of the reinforcing steel. As permafrost thaws and water becomes liquid, it can accelerate corrosion and cause other types of damage.
Asteroid 2021 TE13 flew past Earth at 0.07 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2021 TE13 flew past Earth at a distance of 0.07 LD / 0.00018 AU (26 927 km / 16 732 miles) from the center of our planet at 09:53 UTC on October 12, 2021. This is the 101st known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the 7th so far this month. It is also the 31st closest asteroid flyby on record, sharing this place with 4 other asteroids.2021 TE13 belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and was first observed at Mt. Lemmon Survey, Arizona on October 13, 2021, one day after it made its close approach to Earth.The object has an estimated diameter between 3.7 and 8.3 m (12 - 27.2 feet).
Meteorite Crashes Into Sleeping Woman's Bed Canada - It was a clear night in Golden, British Columbia, and 66-year-old Ruth Hamilton was sound asleep in her home when she was startled awake by something truly out of this world. Hamilton was sleeping alone in her bed on the night of Sunday, Oct. 3, when she was jolted awake by the sound of an explosion and her dog barking. She immediately turned on the light, noticed a hole in the ceiling just above her bed and dialed 911. Shortly after dialing for help, she realized what had happened. “[I] flipped back the top pillow and there was a rock,” Hamilton told Global BC. The softball-sized rock turned out to be a meteorite that crashed through her house, landing just inches away from her head. Golden is situated in eastern British Columbia, about a four-hour drive west of Calgary. Fortunately, Hamilton was able to walk away unscathed, although she now has an almost unbelievable story to tell for the rest of her life. “It never touched me,” Hamilton told CTV News. “I had debris on my face from the drywall, but not a single scratch.” There have been tales of people being killed by meteorites throughout history, but there has only been one confirmed death due to a meteorite in the last 100 or so years. That incident occurred in Iraq in 1888, according to Phys.org. The chances of being hit by a meteorite are incredibly slim. In fact, a person is more likely to be struck by lightning multiple times in life than to have a meteorite hit a house just once.
CME impacts Earth, sparks G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm - Coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by M1.6 solar flare at 06:40 UTC on October 9, 2021, reached DSCOVR spacecraft at 01:48 UTC and Earth at 02:30 UTC on October 12, 2021. The impact sparked a G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm.In 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on October 12, solar wind conditions were indicative of mildly enhanced and disturbed conditions likely due to heliospheric current sheet (HCS) proximity and weak coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength weakened from an early peak of 12 nT to an average of 5 - 6 nT. The Bz component varied, but was predominantly directed southward. Solar wind speed at DSCOVR spacecraft rose sharply from 366 km/s at 01:42 UTC to 487 km/s at 01:48 UTC, signaling impact from October 9 CME.The CME reached Earth at around 02:30 UTC sparking G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm at 02:57 UTC and G2 - Moderate at 04:47 UTC. G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm potential impacts:
- Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
- Induced currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
- Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
- Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
- Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
CME influences are expected to wane on October 13, while weak isolated, positive polarity CH HSS influences may be noted, SWPC said.
Energy Crisis Sets Stage for Record Global Carbon Emissions - The energy crisis, the coming winter weather and the release of pent-up pandemic demand have sent nations scrambling to stockpile fossil fuels, a move that portends a rebound for global carbon dioxide emissions this year. The trajectory poses a new threat to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5° Celsius. China, India and other developing economies are driving the demand for coal, but even the U.S. is poised to increase its consumption of the dirtiest fossil fuel in almost a decade, according to a forecast from the International Energy Agency.
Enjoy It While You Can: Dropping Oxygen Will Eventually Suffocate Most Life on Earth -For now, life is flourishing on our oxygen-rich planet, but Earth wasn't always that way – and scientists have predicted that, in the future, the atmosphere will revert back to one that's rich in methane and low in oxygen.This probably won't happen for another billion years or so. But when the change comes, it's going to happen fairly rapidly, the study from earlier this year suggests.This shift will take the planet back to something like the state it was in before what's known as the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) around 2.4 billion years ago.What's more, the researchers behind the new study say that atmospheric oxygen is unlikely to be a permanent feature of habitable worlds in general, which has implications for our efforts to detect signs of life further out in the Universe."The model projects that a deoxygenation of the atmosphere, with atmospheric O2 dropping sharply to levels reminiscent of the Archaean Earth, will most probably be triggered before the inception of moist greenhouse conditions in Earth's climate system and before the extensive loss of surface water from the atmosphere," wrote the researchers in theirpublished paper.At that point it'll be the end of the road for human beings and most other life forms that rely on oxygen to get through the day, so let's hope we figure out how to get off the planet at some point within the next billion years.To reach their conclusions, the researchers ran detailed models of Earth's biosphere, factoring in changes in the brightness of the Sun and the corresponding drop in carbon dioxide levels, as the gas gets broken down by increasing levels of heat. Less carbon dioxide means fewer photosynthesizing organisms such as plants, which would result in less oxygen.Scientists have previously predicted that increased radiation from the Sun would wipe ocean waters off the face of our planet within about 2 billion years, but the new model – based on an average of just under 400,000 simulations – says the reduction in oxygen is going to kill off life first. "The drop in oxygen is very, very extreme," Earth scientist Chris Reinhard, from the Georgia Institute of Technology, told New Scientist earlier this year. "We're talking around a million times less oxygen than there is today."
Hey, Kids, Who Screwed the Climate? -- SPEAKING ABOUT POSTWAR Germany in the 1960s, Hannah Arendt pronounced upon what she considered the “well-known fallacy of the concept of collective guilt.” Popular at the time among German young people in particular, “the cry ‘We are all guilty’ that at first hearing sounded so very noble and tempting has actually only served to exculpate to a considerable degree those who actually were guilty,” Arendt said. “Where all are guilty, nobody is.”“It is only in a metaphorical sense,” Arendt went on to observe, “that we can say wefeel guilty for the sins of our fathers or our people or mankind, in short, for deeds we have not done, although the course of events may well make us pay for them.”Indeed, they well may. Witness, if you care to, the course of our rapidly unfolding and increasingly unstoppable climate catastrophe.Perhaps some readers’ sense of moral probity will be offended by the suggestion that “we”—that is, humans, and American humans especially—are in fact not “all guilty” of creating the climate emergency. Of course, on some technical, infinitesimal, ultimately meaningless level, each of us shares some guilt—insofar as we do things in our daily lives, like commute to work or heat our homes or eat a sandwich, that result in greenhouse gas emissions. But as Arendt knew, draping oneself in pious collective self-judgement only leads to “a phony sentimentality in which all real issues are obscured.”So it was immeasurably clarifying, an epiphany of sorts, when in 2015 a group of twenty-one young plaintiffs from around the United States—represented pro bono by attorneys with the nonprofit Our Children’s Trust and supported by top climate scientists, interfaith organizations, and legal experts—sued the federal government for its deliberate actions over the course of the past half-century, under every president and Congress since the Johnson administration, to promote and expand the national fossil-fuel energy system, thereby deepening and accelerating the climate crisis despite full knowledge of both the catastrophic consequences and of the existing alternatives at every step along the way, and thus violating the youth plaintiffs’ constitutional rights to “life, liberty, and property,” due process, and equal protection. As remedy, they asked the court to order the government to “cease their permitting, authorizing, and subsidizing of fossil fuels” and implement a “national plan so as to stabilize the climate system” for their generation and those to come.
U.N. Says It Can’t Rule on Climate Complaint by Greta Thunberg, Others – WSJ —A United Nations committee said it couldn’t rule on a complaint filed by a group of young climate activists, including Greta Thunberg, which alleged five nations were violating their children’s rights by failing to adequately fight climate change.In 2019, Ms. Thunberg and 14 other children sent a complaint to the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child stating that five nations—France, Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Turkey—weren’t doing enough to combat climate change and not upholding their obligations under international human rights law.On Monday, the U.N. committee said that the 15 children should file their claims via national courts first.“We struggled with the fact that although we entirely understood the significance and urgency of your complaint, we had to work within the limits of the legal powers given to us,” the U.N. committee wrote. However, it concluded that a s tate could be held responsible for the effect of its carbon emission on the rights of children both inside and outside its borders.In a statement, the law firms representing the activists, Hausfeld and Earthjustice, called the U.N. Committee’s decision not to hear the case “stunning” and said that there was “simply no time to file a climate change case in every state in the world.” Ms. Thunberg, now 18 years old, hasn’t publicly commented.The authors of the complaint, who were aged between eight and 17 at the time and represented by environmental lawyers, argued that the five nations had each pledged in the 2015 Paris Agreement to make efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. “None of the respondents has kept nor met that pledge, which in itself is inadequate to prevent human rights violations on a massive scale,” the activists’ lawyers wrote in 2019 to the U.N. committee. They argued that the five nations were violating the Convention on the Rights of the Child by denying their right to life, health and culture. The U.N. Committee, which is made up of 18 independent experts that monitor implementation of the Convention on the Rights of the Child, concluded it couldn’t rule on the issue before the states themselves.
Greta Thunberg Is 'Open' to Meeting Biden at the UN Climate Summit --Greta Thunberg is "open" to meeting with United States President Joe Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, though the young Swedish activist does not expect much from either the US leader or the make-or-break summit that runs October 31 to November 12.In an interview with the global media collaboration Covering Climate Now last Wednesday, Thunberg expressed surprise at the idea that Biden, or any world leader, might want to sit down with her at COP26, but said she was open to the possibility, if asked. "I guess that will depend on the situation," she said. "I don't see why these people want to meet with me, but yeah."A week before she entertained the question about whether she would meet with Biden, Thunberg had accused the US president and other world leaders of offering pretty words but no real action on climate, only "blah blah blah," in a speech to the Youth4Climate summit. That September 28 clip went viral. In the CCNow interview, conducted by NBC News, Reuters, and The Nation, she complained that youth climate activists "are not being taken seriously" by world leaders. "They're just saying, 'We listen to you,' and then they applaud us, and then they go on just like before."The suggestion that Biden has not only spoken strongly about the climate crisis but is also trying to pass the most ambitious climate legislation in US history does not impress Thunberg. The climate measures in the Democrats' spending plan now under ferocious negotiation in Washington have "been so much watered down by lobbyists," she said; "so we should not pretend that this would be a solution to the climate crisis." Biden's political problem—that as president in a democracy, he shares power with a legislative body where he faces unanimous Republican opposition that is determined to block his agenda—does not interest her. She judges by results only: "Emissions are still going up."
IEA says clean energy progress remains 'far too slow' - The International Energy Agency issued a sobering warning Wednesday, claiming that clean energy progress remained "far too slow to put global emissions into sustained decline towards net zero." The Paris-based organization made its remarks in an announcement accompanying the release of its World Energy Outlook 2021. The wide-ranging report's publication comes as the planet gears up for the COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow, Scotland, which will take place between Oct. 31 and Nov. 12. The IEA's report said that while electric vehicle sales achieved new records in 2020 and renewable sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic continued their rapid growth, "every data point showing the speed of change in energy can be countered by another showing the stubbornness of the status quo." Photovoltaic refers to a way of directly converting light from the sun into electricity. In a sign of how much work needs to be done, the WEO described how a "rapid but uneven economic recovery from last year's Covid‐induced recession" had put significant strains on the energy system. This had sparked "sharp price rises in natural gas, coal and electricity markets." "For all the advances being made by renewables and electric mobility, 2021 is seeing a large rebound in coal and oil use," the report continued. "Largely for this reason, it is also seeing the second‐largest annual increase in CO2 emissions in history." The report goes through a number of scenarios when it comes to looking at the years ahead. These include its Stated Policies Scenario, where "almost all of the net growth in energy demand to 2050 is met by low emissions sources." While the above sounds promising, the IEA cautions that this would leave yearly emissions at roughly today's levels. "As a result, global average temperatures are still rising when they hit 2.6 °C above pre‐industrial levels in 2100."
International Energy Agency: Nations need to 'give a clear and unmistakable signal' of clean energy commitment - The leader of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said ahead of an upcoming climate summit that nations need to “give a clear and unmistakable sign” of their commitment to clean energy. Fatih Birol, IEA’s executive director, made the comment in a statement announcing the release of the agency’s World Energy Outlook for 2021. Birol said the push for clean energy is running against the “stubborn incumbency of fossil fuels in our energy systems.” “Governments need to resolve this at COP26 by giving a clear and unmistakable signal that they are committed to rapidly scaling up the clean and resilient technologies of the future,” Birol said. “The social and economic benefits of accelerating clean energy transitions are huge, and the costs of inaction are immense.” According to the IEA’s report, renewable sources of energy like wind and solar continued to grow, and electric vehicles set new sales records despite the economic impacts of shutdowns caused by the coronavirus pandemic. However, the “rapid but uneven economic recovery” from the coronavirus-induced recession is now putting strains on the energy system, sparking sharp price increases in natural gas, coal and electricity markets. And despite the advances being made in renewable energy, there is a “large rebound” of coal and oil use, which is largely contributing to the second-largest annual increase in carbon dioxide in history. The report states that public spending on sustainable energy in the economic recovery has only resulted in one-third of what is needed to “jolt the energy system on a new set of rails.” The release of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook comes ahead of the COP26 meeting, which is being held from Oct. 31 to Nov. 12 in in Glasgow, Scotland.
How Two Bills in Congress Could Have a Major Impact on Climate Action - The New York Times — President Biden has framed this moment as the country’s best chance to save the planet.“The nation and the world are in peril,” he said weeks ago in Queens, where 11 people drowned in their basement apartments after floodwaters from Hurricane Ida devastated communities from Louisiana to New York. “And that’s not hyperbole. That is a fact. They’ve been warning us the extreme weather would get more extreme over the decade, and we’re living in it real time now.”Mr. Biden’s plan to try to fortify the United States against extreme weather — and cut the carbon dioxide emissions that are heating the Earth and fueling disasters — is embedded in two pieces of legislation pending on Capitol Hill. The future of both bills remains in question, with tension between moderate and progressive Democrats over the size and scope of many details.Together, they contain what would be the most significant climate action ever taken by the United States. Because Democrats could lose control of Congress after 2022 and Republicans have shown little interest in climate legislation, it could be years before another opportunity arises — a delay that scientists say the planet cannot afford.The climate provisions are designed to quickly transform energy and transportation, the country’s two largest sources of greenhouse gases, from systems that now mostly burn gas, oil and coal to sectors that run increasingly on clean energy from the sun, wind and nuclear power.The impact will touch a broad cross-section of American life, from the kinds of cars that Americans drive, to the types of crops grown by farmers, to the way homes are heated and buildings are constructed. One measure could shutter virtually all of the nation’s remaining coal plants, forcing sweeping change in communities dependent on mining but also, one study estimated, preventing as many as 50,000 premature deaths from pollution by 2030. And other measures would provide billions to replant in national forests, repair trails for hikers and clear brush to reduce the risk of wildfire.“Each time you let these opportunities slip through your fingers, you’re passing a much harder problem on to the next generation,” said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology and mother of four. “It’s a very hard thing to swallow that we are relegating children born today and not yet born to a future of dangerous climate impacts.”
Can the World’s Most Polluting Heavy Industries Decarbonize? - -know how to decarbonize energy production with renewable fuels and land transportation with electric vehicles. Blueprints for greening shipping and aircraft are being drawn up. But what about the big industrial processes? They look set to become decarbonization holdouts — the last and hardest CO2 emissions that we must eliminate if we are to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. In particular, how are we to green the three biggest globally-vital heavy industries: steel, cement, and ammonia, which together emit around a fifth of anthropogenic CO2?Our modern urban environments are largely constructed from concrete — which is made from cement — and steel. Most of our food is grown through the application of fertilizer made from ammonia. These most ubiquitous industrial materials are produced at huge expense of energy and carbon dioxide emissions. Their staid industries have prospered for over a century using largely unchanged manufacturing processes. But the urgent need to produce green ammonia, steel, and cement is starting to shake them up. Research is providing new options for fundamental changes to chemical processes. And in recent weeks, leading players have announced major initiatives in each of these three crunch industries.Two emerging technologies are advertising themselves as the “solutions” to decarbonizing problem industries. One is carbon capture and storage (CCS), which aims to capture stack CO2 emissions and bury them in geological structures such as old oilfields or salt mines. The other is “green hydrogen,” made by splitting water using renewable energy. Some see green hydrogen as the dream fuel of the future, powering everything from planes and power stations to homes and heavy industry.But both technologies face technical criticism and accusations of hype. CCS is accused of being designed more to prolong the future of fossil-fuel industries than to decarbonize the world’s economy. And even green hydrogen, which is essentially a conveyor of renewable energy, seems pointless for applications where the renewable energy can be used directly — by plugging in electric vehicles, for instance.Yet each may have a role in certain industries, industry analysts say. “Primary steel and ammonia production are sensible entry points for green hydrogen,” Falko Ueckerdt of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research told Yale Environment 360. Hydrogen is very efficient at fueling high-temperature industrial processes, for instance, so green hydrogen could sometimes be the real deal for heavy industries that currently require fossil fuels as part of the process (steel), already use hydrogen (fertilizer), or need the high temperatures hydrogen is good at producing (cement). Let’s take each of these industries. What do they need to decarbonize?
Industrial 'decarbonization' will require putting a price on carbon emissions, combined with mandatory carbon reductions -Louisiana industries could be charged major new taxes or fees based on their annual emissions of greenhouse gases, and be required to convince a panel of state agencies that they will comply with new emission reductions before getting permits for new or expanded facilities.Those are two of the major proposals included in a list of ways the state hopes to achieve “industrial decarbonization” — the removal of carbon dioxide and gases like methane and nitrogen oxide from emissions by heavy industry — as part of Gov. John Bel Edwards’ plan to reach “net zero” state carbon emissions by 2050.Reining in Louisiana's large industrial sector will be perhaps the most important part of the plan: Industry was responsible for 62% of the 217 million tons of greenhouse gases released statewide in 2018, according to LSU professor David Dismukes.The strategies being reviewed by Edwards’ Climate Initiatives Task Force are aimed at getting industrial facilities to do one of two things: reduce their existing carbon emissions to zero by changing their manufacturing processes, or capture and permanently store them so they don't enter the atmosphere, or both.The task force expects the effort to be a double-edged sword for the state’s industrial sector, posing both financial risks and opportunities for the companies and their employees — and to the state's economy — over the next 30 years as the U.S. seeks to avoid the worst effects of climate change."We'll need federal assistance equivalent to the effort to get a man on the moon," Flozell Daniels, president of the Foundation for Louisiana and a member of the task force, said Friday. “It’s important to first recognize that we’re at a level of crisis that requires an extraordinary response.”Daniels said any federal subsidy would have to be designed to support the present level of employment while also meeting the carbon goals.
Is Decarbonization Threatening Europe's Energy Security? -- The energy crisis that is unfolding across the globe could set the world back in terms of carbon emissions as coal and gas demand skyrockets. China will burn and import more coal this year than it did last year, seriously imperiling the nation’s own emissions pledges as well as the world’s chances of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.Achieving net-zero is going to require an extremely delicate balancing act as the world struggles to move away from fossil fuels while keeping the economy running smoothly.Later this month about 25,000 people are headed to Glasgow for the 26th annual United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), known as COP26. The UK, this year’s host of the Conference of the Parties, has asked participants to submit more ambitious targets for emissions reductions by 2030 in order to enable the possibility of achieving global net-zero emissions by mid-century. Conference leaders have also asked for increased monetary contribution to climate adaptation and mitigation funds, and have the stated goal of finalizing the regulatory framework for implementing and enforcing the pledges made in the 2015 Paris agreement.At the same time that the world ramps up for the latest and most robust global climate meeting, an energy crisis is unfolding in Europe and Asia which could set the world back in terms of carbon emissions, and which showcases just how difficult the road to decarbonization will be. As global economies have surged back to life in the post-pandemic era, demand for consumer goods and services has skyrocketed. While consumers have largely bounced back to business as usual, however, supply chains have not been able to keep up. In the energy sector, supply has simply been unable to keep up with demand, causing an energy crunch and severe price spikes in the European Union, China, and India, leading to massive disruptions of supply chains and industries around the globe. In Europe, the EU is trying to walk a tightrope act between getting enough natural gas from Moscow to stay afloat without seriously compromising their energy security and giving the Kremlin too much geopolitical power. India is seriously at risk of running out of coal, which accounts for 70% of the national energy mix. In China, many energy companies have simply stopped producing, as coal prices have skyrocketed but national price caps prevent energy companies from raising electricity prices accordingly, forcing them to either run at a deficit or shut down entirely. The energy crunch and resulting energy insecurity in these regions has highlighted the extent to which all of these governing bodies, which have made considerable climate pledges, are still reliant on fossil fuels. Indeed, China has now lightened its restrictions on coal mining for the last three months of the year in order to keep the lights on and keep supply chains in motion, meaning that China will burn and import more coal this year than it did last year, seriously imperling the nation’s own emissions pledges as well as the world’s chances of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. Achieving net-zero is going to require an extremely delicate balancing act as the world struggles to move away from fossil fuels while keeping the economy running smoothly. This current crunch is likely just one of many similar hiccups to come. However, if these bumps in the road continue to send energy-strapped countries back to coal, as this current snap has done, that spells out major trouble for the climate. The green transition likely won’t be easy or smooth, and will almost certainly continue to hurt consumers in the process, but the alternative is far worse.
Louisiana lands largest clean energy project in the world -- Louisiana has landed the largest clean energy carbon sequestration project in the world, Gov. John Bel Edwards and Air Products announced Thursday. Air Products said it will build a $4.5 billion complex in the capital region in Ascension large Parish to product "blue hydrogen," which uses natural gas to produce an alternative fuel with the carbon dioxide emissions captured and stored underground. "This represents an important step in our ongoing expansion into clean energy," Edwards said during a press conference. "It's the carbon sequestration effort to date. This is the largest project of its type anywhere in the world." Air Products, which supplies industrial gas, will build the facility near Burnside. "This will be a world class example of clean energy for the future," said Seifi Ghasemi, president, chief executive and chairman of Air Products. The project will create 170 new direct permanent jobs with a $15.9 million annual payroll as well as 2,000 construction jobs. Air Products already employs 300 at its existing 18 Louisiana facilities. "For us, it's like coming home again," Ghasemi said. "Our higher purpose as a company is to bring people together to develop innovative solutions to solve serious energy and environmental challenges facing the world." Earlier this month Edwards announced Louisiana has joined the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s “Race to Zero” campaign, a global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change. "There's an energy transition under way and we're powerless to stop it," Edwards said. "We're either going to take advantage of those opportunities or we're going to lose. No state is more impacted by climate change than Louisiana."
Financing, engineering setbacks plague North Dakota's $1B carbon capture project - The U.S. has seen lawmakers from both parties agree that carbon capture is one important way to rein in greenhouse gas emissions and rural communities are rallying around plans to retrofit large American coal power plants with the technology to save jobs. But one of the most high-profile carbon capture projects in the U.S., the $1 billion Project Tundra in North Dakota, is facing months of delays after its engineering contractor apparently pulled out in March. The Minnkota Power Cooperative Inc., which is spearheading the project at its 692-MW Milton R. Young coal-fired power plant, has acknowledged it is also having difficulty securing private-sector funding "It's not clear why investors would sink a billion dollars into any risky and controversial coal carbon capture proposal, much less one facing such major outstanding questions," said Joe Smyth, a research manager with the Energy and Policy Institute. The watchdog group obtained copies of reports the electric co-op filed with the U.S. Energy Department detailing Project Tundra's struggles. Minnkota received a $9.8 million grant from the DOE in 2019 for the front-end engineering work that has now been delayed by a year. The co-op said in its latest quarterly progress report to the DOE that it is talking with other potential construction contractors but that the process "is progressing slower than anticipated." Minnkota's former contractor Fluor Corp. could continue to work on Project Tundra in a more limited capacity and bring in additional partners, noted John Thompson, a technology and markets director for the Clean Air Task Force who monitors U.S. carbon capture projects. He said Fluor likely did not walk away from the contractor job over concerns with the technology but rather due to its corporatewide push away from fixed price to reimbursable contracts. "They're shifting their portfolio and have been pretty candid about that," Thompson said. "They're restructuring all their stuff to be less reliable on fixed contracts."
Mary Wildfire: Carbon capture won't solve the climate crisis - It’s become increasingly obvious that the climate crisis is not only real, it’s devastating and hitting hard sooner than expected. The number one cause is fossil fuels. Thus, calls to phase them out are becoming more numerous and louder; at the same time, the remaining fossil fuels are becoming more expensive and difficult to extract. Solar and wind power, on the other hand, are still getting cheaper. What’s the poor fossil fuel industry to do?Here in West Virginia, it’s mostly gas we’re talking about. The industry tried to ramp up exports but ran into problems with too few pipelines and glutted markets abroad. Creating a petrochemical complex to use the natural gas liquids also ran into glutted markets as well as environmental problems.So now there’s a new gambit. The idea is that we’ll keep burning fossil fuels, but we’ll capture the carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas, and bury it underground. But there are myriad problems, so this is not a genuine solution at all.Carbon capture and sequestration — CCS — has been waved around as a supposed solution for decades. It was the chief component of so-called “clean coal.” A number of pilot plants have been built, but like the Mountaineer plant, the one in West Virginia, they generally turn out to only capture a small percentage of the CO2 and eventually shut down because they’re too expensive. It takes 30% more coal to get the same power when running with CCS. And it doesn’t capture emissions from other parts of the supply chain, nor does it help with other pollutants. Actually, most of the CO2 captured so far has gone into EOR — enhanced oil recovery, where it is pumped into old oil wells to stimulate increased flow. Obviously, this is not a climate solution. Given the massive additional expense of CCS, how could the industry possibly compete with renewables if this became widespread or mandated? You can guess, right? Taxpayer subsidies will bail out the industry. We will pay the industry to build plants that (may) capture (some of) the carbon dioxide so they can keep going. But if these plants did become widespread, they would need a whole new network of pipelines to take the captured CO2 from the plants to sequestration sites — a network expected to be larger than the entire existing network of pipelines! Despite all these problems, the U.S. Department of Energy is now pushing a proposal to fund this gargantuan pipeline buildout, supported by senators Joe Manchin and Shelley Moore Capito. They talk about the pipeline jobs, but since there could be even more jobs if we finally got serious about transitioning to renewable energy, I suspect the real concern is for their campaign contributors.
EIA expects U.S. power use to rise in 2021 as economy recovers (Reuters) - U.S. power usage will rise about 3% in 2021 as the economy grows following last year's coronavirus hit to demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA projected power demand will climb to 3,915 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2021 and 3,929 billion kWh in 2022. That compares with a coronavirus-depressed 11-year low of 3,802 billion kWh in 2020 and an all-time high of 4,003 billion kWh reached in 2018. EIA projected 2021 power sales would rise to a record high 1,488 billion kWh for residential consumers, as ongoing COVID concerns keep more people working from home, 1,308 billion kWh for commercial customers and 977 billion kWh for industrials. That compares with a previous high of 1,469 billion kWh in 2018 for residential consumers and all-time highs of 1,382 billion kWh in 2018 for commercial customers and 1,064 billion kWh in 2000 for industrials. EIA said natural gas' share of power generation will slide from 39% in 2020 to 36% in 2021 and 35% in 2022 as gas prices rise. Coal's share will rise to 24% in 2021, from 20% in 2020, and contribute 23% in 2022. The percentage of nuclear generation will ease from 21% in 2020 to 20% in 2021 and 2022, while renewables will hold at 20% in 2021, the same as 2020, before rising to 22% in 2022. The EIA projected 2021 natural gas sales would rise to 13.37 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) for residential consumers, 9.32 bcfd for commercial customers and 22.81 bcfd for industrials, but fall to 29.83 bcfd for power generation. That compares with all-time highs of 14.36 bcfd in 1996 for residential consumers, 9.63 bcfd in 2018 for commercial customers, 23.80 bcfd in 1973 for industrials and 31.74 bcfd in2020 for power generation.
Biden administration planning massive expansion of offshore wind farms -Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and the department announced a series of next steps in the Biden administration's offshore wind push.Haaland said Wednesday that the U.S. could hold as many as seven lease sales by 2025 for companies who want to use oceans to develop wind energy offshore. These sales could happen in the Gulf of Maine, New York Bight, Central Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, as well as offshore of the Carolinas, California and Oregon, according to the Interior Department.Haaland said the department would also soon announce a final decision on whether to approve the country's second commercial-scale offshore wind farm, hinting at approval."In the coming weeks, we will announce a decision on South Fork Wind which could be — which will be — the second commercial wind farm in federal waters we've approved," The department in May approved the first commercial-scale offshore wind farm, called Vineyard Wind, which has to be constructed before it can start producing power. The Interior Department also said in a statement that its Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is working on new guidelines for identifying areas that could be used for offshore wind leasing. It will also consider how “innovative” lease stipulations including reporting requirements aimed at lessening conflicts with other ocean users, mechanisms for labor agreements and investing in the domestic supply chain. The news comes amid a push by the administration to exponentially grow the country’s current offshore wind capacity to 30,000 megawatts by 2030, which they say is enough to power more than 10 million homes. Currently, the U.S. has just two operational offshore wind farms that together represent 42 megawatts of offshore wind capacity. The news also comes as the Biden administration is pushing to grow clean energy at large to combat climate change.In particular, it’s hoping to do so with incentives baked into Democrats’ spending legislation, in addition to departmental actions that spur growth. But, with resistance from some conservative members of the caucus, it’s not clear how much will be accomplished legislatively.
Big Oil wants to be Big Wind. Can drillers be trusted? - There’s an active debate about the role fossil fuel companies should play in the renewable energy transition. Some experts say oil companies’ deep pockets and their decades of working offshore make them uniquely suited to build turbines at sea. Others are skeptical. They worry that offshore wind could be a token investment, something to burnish the companies’ reputations while they pour vast resources into oil and gas projects. Fossil fuel companies have “known for literal decades that the industry they were running was going to ruin the world,” said Mary Annaïse Heglar, a prominent climate writer and co-host of the “Hot Take” podcast and newsletter. “They try to present themselves as the solvers of climate change and not as the creators of climate change,” she said. Several big European oil companies have pledged to overhaul their businesses by midcentury. Shell and BP, for instance, say they will slowly reduce their oil production, ratchet up investments in renewable energy and offset or trap any remaining emissions. The Norwegian oil giant Equinor has pledged to increase its spending on renewables from 4 percent of its budget last year to 50 percent in 2030. But oil companies have dabbled in renewables before. BP famously rebranded as “Beyond Petroleum” in the early 2000s and launched a solar business, only to scrap it a few years later to focus more on its fossil fuels. Heglar questions why the public should believe their promises this time. “They’ve lost all credibility in my eyes. So I don’t understand how they can be trusted with wind energy,” she said.
Joe Biden Is the Robespierre of Renewables - In late 1973, an Arab-led oil embargo on several Western countries sent gas prices soaring, forcing Americans to ration their time behind the wheel. To conserve gasoline, a newly minted senator from Delaware voted in favor of capping the nation’s speed limit at 55 mph. Almost 50 years later, Joe Biden is overseeing a petroleum price crisis of his own making through his self-proclaimed “clean energy revolution.” As consumers face soaring gas prices, President Biden needs to pump the breaks on his punishing policies.According to the AAA, the national average gas price has recently hit a seven-year high of $3.24 per gallon. The rise is being felt across the country, in both the highest and lowest cost states. Texas often enjoys some of the lowest average gas prices in America, but drivers have faced roughly a $1 per gallon increase over the past year. Meanwhile in California, where Sacramento imposes the highest gas tax in the country, the state average is up by approximately $1.20.To make matters worse, increases in the price of gas are particularly regressive—meaning poorer families spend a greater share of their income on gas than their wealthier counterparts. Coupled with onerous zoning regulations in many parts of the country, which force lower income workers to live and commute from further afield, rising gas prices serve a punishing blow to household budgets.Unlike during the 1970s, when rapid political developments in the Middle East sent domestic prices soaring, the current price squeeze is the slow accumulation of Joe Biden’s near-sighted policies. Since taking office in January, the Biden administration has orchestrated a broad campaign to disincentivize domestic oil production. Some tactics were explicit, such as (unlawfully) banning public land and water leases for drilling, mulling emissions reporting mandates from public companies, and vowing to slash oil and gas industry subsidies. Other moves were more subtle, such as re-joining the Paris Climate Agreement and promising to pursue a net-zero emissions economy by 2050.Unsurprisingly, the campaign has drawn investors away from the oil industry. As Biden’s tenure goes on, the recovery of the industry’s investment is slowing and, despite high oil prices, investment remains less than three quarters of its pre-pandemic size. Meanwhile, due to the gap between global supply and demand of oil, late last month Goldman Sachs revised their end of year Brent crude forecast up from $80 to $90 a barrel. Despite the price surge, the Biden administration has so far refused to take up the issue on the home front. Deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre recently said that the White House was monitoring the situation, while the Department of Energy’s staff have walked back comments about tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Rather than supporting American workers, companies, and communities, Biden officials are seeking to outsource the opportunity by asking foreign producers to raise their production levels.
As turbines rise, small-scale fishermen have the most to lose - David Aripotch steers his trawler through the predawn darkness, past the outlines of multistory motor yachts, sleek pleasure boats and a U.S. Coast Guard cutter. When he was a boy, people told him to go into fishing. The harder you work, the more money you will make, they'd say. He isn’t so sure anymore. The twin diesel motors groan and the trawler pushes out beyond the harbor break into Long Island Sound. The ocean is calm. The summer sun rises in a cloudless sky. A large reel whines, and a 250-foot net unspools into the water. David Aripotch is 65, a weathered man with gray hair, just tall enough to see over the helm. He has been fishing for almost a half century, but he still gets excited every time the net is lifted from the ocean. It’s all the other things that eat at him. The federal fishing quotas that sometimes make him steam as far south as North Carolina to catch fish he can find off Long Island. The mind-boggling expenses of running a fishing boat: $5,000 a month for insurance, $30,000 for a new net, $60,000 for a paint job. Worst of all are the wind farms. “There's so many things going against you as a commercial fisherman in the United States,” he says. “And now these wind farms, it's almost like that's the final nail in the coffin.” 'They're all true depending on where you sit' Offshore wind is a critical component of President Biden’s climate strategy, but it has met fierce resistance from fishermen like Aripotch. They fear installing thousands of massive turbines in the ocean could displace them from their fishing grounds and sink their industry. Power Shift was produced through a partnership between WBUR and E&E News, whose five daily publications cover energy and the environment. The conflict is a vivid illustration of the tradeoffs involved in confronting climate change. Biden and other supporters say offshore wind can deliver a surge of clean electricity and slash greenhouse gas emissions. But many fishing captains worry the turbines could alter the ocean in unexpected and irreparable ways. Last month, a commercial fishing group filed a lawsuit challenging the federal permit issued to Vineyard Wind I, the country’s first planned development. Efforts are being made to address those concerns. In New York, one company sat down with local fishermen to discuss turbine placement. Developers working off New England will space their turbines one nautical mile apart to ease navigation. In fact, federal regulators selected many wind development areas specifically because they were less popular with fishermen.
World's 1st LNG-Fueled Wind-Assisted CO2 Carrier Ordered By Northern Lights - The Northern Lights joint venture has awarded contracts for the construction of two dedicated CO2 carriers to Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd.As part of the first phase of its CO2 transport and storage infrastructure development, Northern Lights is building two dedicated CO2 carriers, each with a cargo size of 265,000 cubic feet and a length of 425 feet. The ships will be built by Dalian Shipbuilding Industry and will be ready for delivery by mid-2024. The vessels are designed to transport liquid CO2 with purpose-built pressurized cargo tanks. The primary fuel for the ships will be LNG, keeping emissions low. Other innovative technologies, such as a wind-assisted propulsion system and air lubrication will be installed to reduce carbon intensity by around 34 percent compared to conventional systems. The ships are the first of their kind and will potentially set a new standard for CO2 shipping on coastal trading routes. Once in operation, the ships will load captured and liquefied CO2 from European emitters and transport it to the Northern Lights receiving terminal in Øygarden in western Norway. The CO2 volumes will be accurately measured and reported throughout the value chain. These will be independently verified, and the necessary documentation provided to regulators and customs officials.As for Northern Lights, it is developing an open and flexible infrastructure to transport CO2 from industrial emitters by ship to a receiving terminal in western Norway for intermediate storage, before being transported by pipeline for permanent storage in a geological reservoir 8,500 feet under the seabed. Operations are scheduled to start in 2024.
California to Ban Gas-Powered Leaf Blowers and Lawn Mowers - To address the high pollution of yard maintenance, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed a bill into law Saturday that will ban the sale of new gas-powered leaf-blowers, lawn mowers and other off-road engines as early as 2024, The Sacramento Bee reported."It's amazing how people react when they learn how much this equipment pollutes, and how much smog-forming and climate-changing emissions that small off-road engine equipment creates," Assemblyman Marc Berman (D-Menlo Park), who wrote the bill in question, told the Los Angeles Times. "This is a pretty modest approach to trying to limit the massive amounts of pollution that this equipment emits, not to mention the health impact on the workers who are using it constantly."The bill, AB-1346, will require all new small, off-road engines sold in the state to release zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2024, or as soon as the California Air Resources Board (CARB) decides the switch is possible. Portable, gas-powered generators will have to make the switch by 2028, or whenever CARB determines.The bill builds on Newsom's executive order of last year banning the sale of new gas-powered vehicles in the state by 2035. That order also included a transition to 100 percent zero-emission off-road vehicles and equipment by the same date, and the bill says legislation is necessary to reach this goal. California is the only state currently allowed to set its own air pollution regulations, The AP explained, but other states can follow its lead. There are more than 16.7 million small engines in the state, three million more than the total number of passenger cars. It first regulated their emissions in 1990, becoming the first government anywhere in the world to do so. However, vehicle emissions have improved much more than emissions from these smaller engines in the ensuing years.
California is banning gas-powered leaf blowers, lawn mowers, and weed trimmers — and offering rebates for switching to zero-emission tools - Gov. Gavin Newsom of California signed a bill into law on Saturday that would ban gas-powered lawn equipment, such as lawn mowers and leaf blowers, as soon as 2024.The bill, which adds a section to the air-pollution part of California's health and safety code, offers some rebates for switching to zero-emission electronic lawn tools. The bill's author told the Los Angeles Times the state was setting aside $30 million to help professional gardeners and landscapers switch to electric equipment.The bill says small off-road engines, which it describes as those "used primarily in lawn and garden equipment," emit lots of air pollution. Gas-powered chain saws, weed trimmers, and golf carts are also affected by the new law, the Times said."This is a pretty modest approach to trying to limit the massive amounts of pollution that this equipment emits, not to mention the health impact on the workers who are using it constantly," the author of the bill, Assemblyman Marc Berman, told the Times.There are more than 16.7 million small engines in California, 3 million more than the number of passenger cars on the road in the state, the Associated Press reported.The bill also stipulates that portable generators must be zero-emission by 2028.The law is set to come into force on January 1, 2024, or as soon as is feasible, whichever is later.
Europe's green transition has been 'management by chaos,' energy expert says - Europe's handling of the transition to a green economy has been "management by chaos" and high energy prices could persist until 2025, according to Johannes Benigni, chairman of analysis firm JBC Energy.Natural gas futures soared to 13-year highs on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with Europe in particular feeling the pinch due to global supply shortages and its reliance on imports. Oil has also rallied, and international benchmark Brent crude hovered just below $84 per barrel on Tuesday afternoon.Speaking to CNBC's "Street Signs Europe" on Tuesday. Benigni said that although there was some seasonality in natural gas prices, current demand pressures had exacerbated the problem.Benigni projected that natural gas is going to be at "very, very lofty highs" until 2025 and the spikes are not a "short-term phenomenon.""We are going to see that this market is under a lot of stress. As we talk right now, the prices are very hot in the pre-winter, and this is because of a lot of anxiety," he said. Benigni said that come November, Russia may release more natural gas supplies into the market. This will help European utilities to refill their inventories, but he warned that the trajectory through the winter would be highly weather-dependent."We are now at around 75% inventory fill. This is behind schedule. They need to go much higher. Of course, remember last year, we were at 96% and it was drawn down over a very long, cold winter to 30%," he said."That was essentially the starting point for the crisis right now, that they didn't manage to really refill their inventories that much, but this year, it is a different story altogether."Benigni highlighted a confluence of factors that will have implications throughout the energy supply chain, including a major energy crunch in Russia, a "gas-to-oil switching," and South American demand spiking due a lack of hydropower caused by droughts."We have suppliers that were simply having maintenance issues and they thought the market would not come back so quickly, so all of that takes time again to restart the engines on the production front," Benigni added.Energy companies worldwide are coming under increasing scrutiny to exit fossil fuels in order to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy.However, Benigni accused European leaders of mishandling the timing and implementation of the transition toward becoming reliant on renewables."If you want to get out of fossil fuels, you have to invest in natural gas. That sounds, maybe, counterproductive, but to be honest with you, if you want to get out of coal, you will only achieve the same thing the U.S. has done by investing in natural gas so that you can reduce the intensive carbon emissions from coal," he said."You need to give the investors security on investment, and that only
UK biomass emits more CO2 than coal – Ember -Burning biomass for power has been emitting more carbon dioxide in the UK than coal since 2019. Due to its lower energy density than fossil fuels, wood – the main source of biomass used for generating power in the UK – has to be burned in higher volumes than coal to produce the same amount of energy. This means that burning wood emits more carbon dioxide per kWh of electricity than coal.[1] Each year around 8 million tonnes of wood are burned in the UK to generate up to 12% of total UK electricity supply. Burning wood at this scale generates 15.6Mt of CO2 emissions each year [2] of which 13.3Mt alone comes from one power station – Drax, the world’s largest wood-burner.[3]Emissions from burning wood in the UK now far exceed those from burning coal (including coal used in steel production) which amounted to 10Mt in 2020.[4] This means that wood burning is now the second largest contributor to the power sector’s CO2emissions after fossil gas. However it is argued that all emissions released are offset by the growth of new trees to replace those harvested for burning. This is a widely held assumption that is shared by the EU and UK government, and is the reason wood is considered a ‘carbon neutral’ or emissions-free source of energy, making it exempt from carbon-taxation and eligible for significant public subsidy.[5] However, the reality of wood burning is far more complex than this simple assumption. A large and growing majority of scientific evidence shows that burning wood for power is often not carbon neutral – and in some circumstances can be a worse polluter than coal. The European Academies Sciences Advisory Council (EASAC) states that using woody biomass for power “is not effective in mitigating climate change and may even increase the risk of dangerous climate change.”[6] Drax’s CO2 emissions are so high that when compared with Europe’s coal fleet, the power plant is the third largest CO2 emitter. Only Belchatow in Poland (30.1 MtCO2/yr) and Neurath in Germany (18.1 MtCO2/yr) emit more CO2 than Drax.[7] Drax is by far the largest single CO2 emitter in the UK power sector with RWE’s Pembroke Gas Power Station coming in second with 4.3Mt CO2 emissions and is larger even than Port Talbot Steelworks’ annual emissions of 6.4Mt CO2.[8] Burning wood not only emits large amounts of CO2 but also releases significant amounts of particulate matter (PM) into the atmosphere. The scale of wood burning by Drax each year means that the power station is one of the top five emitters of PM10 air pollution in Europe putting it in the same company as some of Europe’s worst coal power plants.[9] Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is increasingly seen as a key tool in reaching net-zero by policy-makers. However, the ability of BECCS to generate negative emissions relies on the carbon-neutral status of burning wood for power. BECCS therefore carries with it exactly the same risks around carbon impacts as wood-burning currently does.
Energy crisis tests Biden’s clean electricity agenda - The Biden administration called yesterday for continued use of natural gas, illustrating the challenging political spot facing the White House as it navigates between a global energy crisis, protesters on the left and a push for a major clean energy package on Capitol Hill. Rising energy demand spurred by the pandemic recovery has sent natural gas and oil prices skyrocketing, raising fears about inflation and energy availability this winter. It’s also proving at least a temporary boom to fossil fuels, including coal, and is fueling Republican attacks as Biden’s efforts to tackle climate change remain at an impasse in Congress. “The rapid but uneven economic recovery from last year’s Covid-induced recession is putting major strains on parts of today’s energy system, sparking sharp price rises in natural gas, coal and electricity markets,” the International Energy Agency said in a report yesterday, adding that “for all the advances being made by renewables and electric mobility, 2021 is seeing a large rebound in coal and oil use.” Yet as climate activists protested outside the White House gates yesterday, calling on Biden to end fracking and stop all U.S. fossil fuel exports, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said there was a “need for the United States to continue to export natural gas.” Psaki’s comments came as she said Biden has asked his team “to continue to discuss what the options are that we can take to address these shortages.” She suggested there is a “range of options” the administration can consider but declined to specify any. The White House has also talked with U.S. oil and gas producers about helping to bring down prices, according to several news reports, but Psaki said she was unaware of any contact with oil and gas companies “around this particular issue.” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, who was reportedly part of White House talks this week on gas prices, said at a Financial Times virtual event last week that DOE was considering an emergency release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and reimposing a crude export ban. The administration later said the steps were only among potential “tools” available for addressing the price increases. The Energy Department referred questions to the White House.
Will industrial-scale bitcoin mining impact the environment? - CBS News - The opportunity to make big money is attracting huge investments to industrial-scale bitcoin mining, with thousands of supercomputer mining machines and enormous energy demand – so much energy that some companies are using power plants to fuel their operations. Critics fear that may have significant environmental consequences, reports CBS News meteorologist and climate specialist Jeff Berardelli. Yvonne Taylor's family has lived along the shores of Seneca Lake, an idyllic spot nestled in New York's picturesque Finger Lakes region, for seven generations. "We've got waterfalls, gorges, water to swim in, fresh water to drink, an abundance of agriculture, wine, tourism." But now, she says her piece of heaven is threatened. Taylor is a leader of Seneca Lake Guardian, an environmental watchdog engaged in a battle over a once-shuttered power plant. The plant, named Greenidge Generation, lay dormant for more than five years. It was converted from coal to natural gas and fired back up in 2017 by a private investment firm with the intent to supply power to the grid. Now, in addition to supplying power, the company has an industrial-scale bitcoin mining business on the property, an operation that's been growing. Recently, the number of mining machines has doubled from around 7,000 to over 15,000. According to an SEC filing by Greenidge Generation, in March the plant powered 19 megawatts of mining capacity. The document shows they expect that to more than quadruple by the end of 2022. Producing power requires millions of gallons of water to be drawn from Seneca Lake to help cool the process. That water is then permitted to be sent back into the lake, measurably warmer than it was when it came in. Some residents worry the potentially warmer water may disturb the balance of the ecosystem. Tina Hazlitt's family has owned a farm on Seneca Lake since 1852. "I feel like we are stewards of the land," she said. "Our roots run deep here." There's no evidence the warm water outflow is causing environmental damage now, but she fears for the future. "What Greenidge is doing threatens our lake and threatens our water," she said. "And for me, that threatens my grandchildren."
Will The Texas Electric Grid Be Able To Handle State’s Bitcoin Mining Rush? – CBS Dallas / Fort Worth – As China pushes out more than half of the world’s cryptocurrency miners, many are fleeing to Texas to cash in on the state’s cheap electricity. Off a rural two-lane road in Rockdale, Texas, sits the largest cryptocurrency mining operation in North America. The 100-acre Whinstone facility is made up of rows of buildings the length of nearly three football fields. Inside are more than 115,000 computer servers mining for Bitcoin. These high-powered servers are called “miners.” “Our job is to build the infrastructure for the backbone of Bitcoin in North America, and we are doing it every day,” said Whinstone CEO Chad Harris. Harris began building the massive facility 160 miles south of Dallas less than two years ago and is currently building four new buildings that will more than double its mining capacity. Whinstone is just one of several companies that have recently built large cryptocurrency mining facilities in rural Texas – leading some to dub the Lone Star State as the new Bitcoin mining capitol of the world. Bitcoin is not a physical coin. It’s a digital file that exists only on the internet. The process of making new Bitcoins is called “Bitcoin mining.” The way mining works is whenever someone buys or sells a Bitcoin, a new unique digital coin needs to be made. To do that, computers around the world race to solve a complex math problem. The computer that does it first produces the new Bitcoin and then is rewarded with Bitcoins for themselves. While Harris noted the local workforce and state tax incentives among his reasons for choosing to build his facility in Texas, he said the key to any large cryptocurrency mining operation is having enough electricity for all the high-powered computers. When in full operation, the Whinstone facility uses the same amount of electricity as 150,000 homes. The electricity it takes to produce a single Bitcoin is equivalent to amount used to power an average Texas home for 62 days. However, while many are pushing Texas to be a leader in the industry, Magnuson said he believes Texas is not ready for this rapid growth. “I think that we need a more thoughtful regulatory scheme,” he explained. “I don’t think we are prepared for this.” During February’s cold snap, the Texas electric grid was on the brink of disaster. Millions of Texans were left without power at a time when they needed it the most. Then when it heated up this summer, there were more forced outages. ERCOT has struggled to keep up with the state’s electricity needs. Now adding onto the grid are several new Bitcoin mining facilities – some highest energy consumption companies in the world. But instead of slowing down the rush, this past session, Texas lawmakers passed several bills enticing more cryptocurrency miners to come to the state. State Senator Angela Paxton, R-McKinney, who authored several of the cryptocurrency bills, said at first she was “very concerned” about the amount of energy these mining facilities were using but after learning more about how they operate, she said large Bitcoin mining facilities could actually help the Texas grid. In many cases, Bitcoin miners can make money when turning their power off by selling their electricity back to the grid when demand is high. However, Harris said that does not happen every time they are asked by ERCOT to power down. “There are times when we are voluntary turning off and we’re not making income at that time,” Harris explained. “We are a part of this community. If you behave correctly, you’ll be rewarded in many more ways than just profitability. Profitability is very important, but it also parallels with being a good corporate citizen.”.While Whinstone promises to power down when needed, there are no guarantees that every Bitcoin miner in the state will do the same.
War to attract Bitcoin miners pits Texas against New York, Kentucky - Wars are taking place between states to attract Bitcoin miners, and new data show that many of them are heading to New York, Kentucky, Georgia, and Texas. In the United States, Bitcoin’s hash rate is 19.9%, or the miner’s total computing power is in New York, 18.7% in Kentucky, 17.3% in Georgia, and 14% in Texas. It is the largest mining pool in North America and the fifth largest mining pool in the world. Mining pools allow one miner to combine its hash power with thousands of other miners around the world, from which there are dozens of choices. Nick Carter, co-founder of Castle, said: Island Ventures presented Foundry data at the Texas Blockchain Summit in Austin on Friday. “This is a much more efficient way to figure out where mining is taking place in the United States.” However, as Carter points out, not all US-based mining farms participate in the pool’s services, so the Foundry dataset takes into account all of the US mining hash rates. Not at all. Riot Blockchain, for example, is one of the largest publicly traded mining companies in the United States with a significant presence in Texas. Hash rates are not taken into account in this dataset as they do not use Foundry. This is part of the reason Texas’ mining presence is underestimated. The dataset captures only part of the domestic mining market, but shows a national trend reshaping the debate over the carbon footprint. Many of the top-ranked states are the epicenters of renewable energy, and the fact is that Bitcoin has already begun to re-story among skeptics that it is bad for the environment. Carter admits that the US mining industry is not completely renewable, but miners here say they are far better at choosing renewable energy and buying offsets. “The transition is definitely a net plus overall,” he said. “The move of the hash rate to the United States means that the carbon strength will be much lower.”
Ted Cruz says bitcoin will stabilize Texas electric grid—here’s why he’s wrong -Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) thinks he has found a way to stabilize Texas’ electric grid in case another deep freeze hits the state. He wants to use the power of bitcoin. “Because of the ability of bitcoin mining to turn on or off instantaneously, if you have a moment where you have a power shortage or a power crisis, whether it’s a freeze or some other natural disaster where power generation capacity goes down, that creates the capacity to instantaneously shift that energy to put it back on the grid,” Cruz told the Texas Blockchain Summit last week. There are a few reasons why what he said doesn’t add up. But let’s start with his assumptions. First, large bitcoin-mining operations use hundreds or thousands of powerful computers, which create a demand for power. If power plants can profitably mine bitcoin using the electricity they generate—and there are examples of that already—it stands to reason that bitcoin mining could create enough demand that investors would be enticed to build new power plants. Those plants could theoretically be tasked with providing power to the grid in cases of emergency. At first glance, the argument holds up. But if you dig into it, even just a bit, things quickly fall apart. For one, the blackouts during Texas’ February cold snaphappened because power companies failed to winterize their generators, whether they were natural gas, coal, nuclear, or wind. Lives were at stake, and yet the companies didn’t prepare for the worst. Unlike power plants that serve the grid, bitcoin mining isn’t critical infrastructure—no one dies if a crypto data center shuts down. Plus, bitcoin miners are in the game first and foremost for the money, and they would be loath to spend extra cash to winterize their operations. But let’s say the power stays on but demand surges. In that case, bitcoin miners would be unlikely to offer their generating capacity to the grid unless they were sufficiently compensated. Texas already has a system like that in place, offering generators a premium for bringing additional power online during shortages. During the February cold snap, wholesale electricity prices surged to $9,000 per MWh, the maximum allowed by law, leading to electricity bills as high as $10,000 for some people. That raises all sorts of ethical questions, of course—for one, should power companies sell people plans with hidden fees that surge in times of greatest need? Should people from other states have to shoulder the cost? But brushing those concerns aside, bitcoin miners would likely demand around $600 per MWh, far more than average Texas wholesale electricity rates, which were $22 per MWh last year though less than the $9,000 per MWh cap. Those $10,000 would drop to a much more palatable $670. All of this assumes, though, that bitcoin mining would spur sufficient demand to replace all of the power lost during the February cold snap, when Texas lost half its generating capacity, or 52.3 GW. At today’s prices, building extra capacity to make up for that sort of loss would cost around $50 billion.
Proposed cryptocurrency farm location draws protest - A company that supports cryptocurrency mining and wants to build a facility on property near Belvoir Elementary School is facing pushback from nearby residents and concerned parents. Compute North, a Minnesota-based firm that operates facilities in Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas is seeking the Pitt County Board of Commissioners’ approval to build a facility on approximately 20 acres of property off of Belvoir School Road north of Greenville. Commissioners, who just last month approved a change to the county zoning ordinance to allow Compute North to seek the special use permit, are scheduled to hold a public hearing and possibly vote on the matter Monday. Opposition has mounted since The Daily Reflector covered news about the zoning change and signs went up on property near the school announcing the special use permit hearing. About 40 people turned out Wednesday for an information session hosted by Compute North at Staton House Fire Department in response to the concerns. “It is bad enough that the county wants to bring in a business whose model is based completely on speculation and energy consumption, that will only employ 20 people, and that will diminish the bucolic appeal of our area, but to allow it to be built next to a school and so close to rural residential areas is unconscionable,” said a letter to commissioners from Molly Holdeman, whose child attends Belvoir School. The property Compute North wants to purchase is near the interchange of U.S. 264 bypass and N.C. 33 West. The company also plans to lease another 30 acres along N.C. 33 West. The properties are about three-tenths of a mile from the elementary school, said James Rhodes, Pitt County director of planning and development. Cryptocurrency mining requires large scale data processing facilities. The currency is created, or “mined,” by banks of data processors that solve complex computational puzzles. The commissioners last month amended its zoning rules to allow large-scale data processing facilities to operate at the request of Compute North. In its permit application, Compute North said it wants to build 89 modules on the site, along with a warehouse/office building, Rhodes said. The bulk of the buildings will be built along the property’s boundary with U.S. 264 Bypass, he said. It places the modules near an existing electric substation and distances them from the residential area. The modules are cooled by moving outside air through the units. A video on Compute North’s website shows between 12-14 fans on each structure. “The resulting loud hum can be heard well beyond the development standard of 100 feet from a residence,” Tamara Shusterman, a project opponent, wrote in a letter to the editor published in The Daily Reflector on Wednesday. “Imagine kids trying to learn with constant noise.”
This Pennsylvania Bitcoin miner just filed for a massive IPO – Fortune - Even when Bitcoin was selling at $47,000 in mid-September, “mining” the world’s leading cryptocurrency ranked as probably the most world’smost lucrative legal enterprise. The Bitcoin picture provided a business school-worthy case study in how the combination of soaring prices and barriers to entry were leading to astounding profitability for the entrenched players. By September, Bitcoin was selling for over four times the $11,000 it fetched a year earlier, when the industry was already making good money. But a crackdown in China and a severe shortage of the semiconductors used in mining computers rendered the industry a lotless competitive, handing a bigger share of the market, and far fatter profits, to the established producers that already had plenty of machines, and just kept minting coins.In the past month, Bitcoin’s gone on a tear, jumping 21% to $57,000 at mid-afternoon on October 15. The field that already dwarfed the profitability such high-margin stalwarts as luxury goods, software, snacks and running a dominant search engine is now even more richly rewarding. And no recent evidence is more revealing than the prospectus for an IPO just issued by a newcomer that plans, of all things, to generate Bitcoin burning waste coal in the wilds of Pennsylvania.On October 14, Stronghold Digital Mining officially launched its offering at a proposed price of $16 to $18 a share. The IPO would give Stronghold a market cap of around $1 billion, and raise roughly $100 million in fresh capital to grow the business. Stronghold moved incredibly fast in securing the facilities and financing to start mining big time, while the displaced Chinese producers are still mostly looking for new homes. Over time, the projected bonanza that lured Stronghold will wane as the uprooted resettle in Texas, Kazakhstan or Canada, and hungry startups build new, towering racks of ASIC miners. But for now, the results Stronghold foresees, and in the current boom look credible, stand as a thing of wonder.The waste coal industry rose in the 1980s as a vehicle for collecting and burning the black expanses scarring the Keystone State. Those piles consist of coal riddled with rock that plants dumped all over the Keystone State's countryside from the late 19th century to the 1970s. The business of refuse coal thrived, supported by subsidies from the state, and a requirement that utilities pay above-market rates to purchase their electricity. "Primary fuel providers” like Spence cleaned up about half the black hills polluting rivers and ground water. But the fracking boom that brought super-cheap natural gas, and energy deregulation that freed utilities from paying super-high rates to the waste coal producers, effectively killed the industry.By last year, around half of the waste coal plants in Pennsylvania had shut down, and the remaining ones were running at a fraction of their old capacity. But Beard and Spence saw a big opportunity. The facilities represented a lot of capital in the ground that was mostly idle, and the state was still providing substantial aid, both for collecting the waste coal, and generating electricity, though the aid still failed to make their electricity competitive in most periods. In the spring of this year, Beard and Spence launched Stronghold by purchasing a mostly-shuttered plant called Scrubgrass, on a 650 acre site about an hour’s drive from Youngstown, Ohio, and later clinched contracts on two more facilities.Today, just about any Bitcoin mine that’s up and running is extremely profitable. That’s because the coins are selling at multiple the cost of winning them. The dominant number on the expense line is electricity. Hence, miners are looking for places with cheap power, and those sources are plentiful, ranging from coal in Kazakhstan and Iran, natural gas in Alberta, Canada, and hydro in Quebec. Stronghold is forecasting that its electricity costs will be far below the industry average, making its margins tower above the norm.
U.S. leapfrogs China to become the world's #1 Bitcoin miner - The U.S. has become the world’s epicenter for Bitcoin mining after a crackdown in China effectively eliminated the practice in the former cradle of the industry. At the end of August, America accounted for 35.4% of the global hash rate, a measure of computing power used to extract the digital currency, according to a Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance study published on Wednesday. That’s more than double the activity seen in April. The surge in the country’s relative share has been driven by China’s move to whittle down the industry to control financial risk. In the early days of Bitcoin’s 2009 inception, the Asian nation was the base for the biggest miners tapping into cheap electricity from coal and hydro plants.Now, Beijing’s intensifying efforts to curb the cryptocurrency market, announced in May, is paying off. China’s observed share of Bitcoin mining has effectively hit zero, the Cambridge researchers found. That’s down from as high as a 75% in September 2019 when Cambridge started collecting data. It’s also a marked decrease from the 46% level notched in April just this year. There’s a strong possibility that covert mining is still happening in China, but routed through virtual private networks that make it appear the computers are operating in another country. Recent increases in the hash rate in Ireland and Germany are likely the result of miners using VPNs or proxy servers, according to the Cambridge research.Miners are seeking cheap electricity and welcoming governments to fuel the boom in the virtual currency that’s approaching record highs again. The token is up more than 370% in the past year to trade around $54,650 with a total market value of about $1 trillion.
China Coal Futures Surge to Record as Flood Swamps Mine Hub - Heavy rains and flooding expanded mine shutdowns in China’s biggest coal-producing region, sending prices to a record and hindering efforts by Beijing to boost energy supplies for winter. Floods have closed 60 of the 682 coal mines in Shanxi province, a region that has produced 30% of China’s supply of the fuel this year, adding to a worsening energy crisis that threatens the country’s economic growth.
India States Hit by Power Outages as Coal Supply Still Tight – Bloomberg - India’s energy crisis is starting to bite with states from Uttar Pradesh to Rajasthan and Kerala hit by blackouts over the weekend. In Rajasthan in northern India, there were rolling outages of as much as two hours in urban areas and four hours in rural areas, said Subodh Agarwal, the state’s additional chief secretary for energy. Rajasthan has been receiving less than half of its contracted volumes of coal from Coal India Ltd., he said. There were also power shortages in other states including Punjab and Jharkhand, according to government data. Maharashtra, home to the country’s financial capital Mumbai, had 11 gigawatts of capacity under outage on Friday, comprising 35% of its supply sources, for reasons including coal shortages, the data show.
Gov. Justice, family company agree to Monroe County stream restoration stipulations after feds say they violated cleanup agreement -West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice and a company controlled by his children have agreed to address environmental violations as urged by the feds after they went after him in federal court last month for again failing to comply with a consent order under which he pledged to address environmental violations.The U.S. Department of Justice, Gov. Justice and James C. Justice Companies Inc. proposed a consent order in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of West Virginia Wednesday by which the governor and his companies would agree to submit post-restoration reports to the federal Environmental Protection Agency and record deed restrictions to protect restored portions of property in Monroe County.The Department of Justice had said that Gov. Justice and his companies failed to comply with stream restoration-related requirements of a February 2016 consent decree that ordered them to submit a detailed restoration plan after alleging they violated federal and state water pollution laws by discharging pollutants along Turkey Creek in Monroe County.The feds, in conjunction with the state Department of Environmental Protection, asked U.S. District Judge David Faber in a filing last month to enforce the consent decree, saying that Justice and James C. Justice Companies Inc. had failed to submit post-restoration reports to the EPA and record deed restrictions to protect the property.In court filings Wednesday, Justice and James C. Justice Companies Inc. agreed to record deed restrictions within 30 days, and submit to the EPA an initial post-restoration monitoring report and additional post-restoration monitoring reports for 10 years, starting in April 2022.The Justice defendants agreed to pay $5,000 to the feds for court costs, including attorneys’ fees.Faber has yet to approve the proposed agreement.Justice and James C. Justice Companies Inc. had agreed to abide by the February 2016 consent order to resolve allegations filed in December 2015 that they violated the federal Clean Water Act by constructing 20 impoundments along a 1.5-mile stretch of Turkey Creek, and an unnamed tributary of the creek near McGlone, starting in 2011 that discharged unpermitted dredged or fill material.
Public Service Commission approves AEP's updated request to increase WV cost burden for coal-fired plant upgrades -Reaffirming a decision it had already made in August, the West Virginia Public Service Commission on Tuesday issued an order granting approval for environmental upgrades federally required to keep three in-state coal-fired plants operating past 2028.This time, though, West Virginia ratepayers will pay more to cover the cost.The commission granted the request from American Electric Power subsidiaries Appalachian Power and Wheeling Power to make the upgrades at the John Amos, Mountaineer and Mitchell coal-fired generating plants in Putnam, Mason and Marshall counties.Tuesday’s order was the result of Kentucky and Virginia utility regulators, which share jurisdiction of the plants, blocking the companies’ requests to stay compliant with federal wastewater rules on the grounds that their plans were uneconomic.The commission’s order approves West Virginia ratepayers picking up a burden of nearly $22 million per year from Virginia and Kentucky customers to pay for the wastewater treatment upgrades.Federal rules require the companies to shutter the plants in 2028, if they don’t make the upgrades.The commission’s original order in the case resulted in a rate increase that would add roughly 38 cents per month to the current bill of a residential customer who uses 1,000 kilowatt-hours per month.Any additional amount that results from Tuesday’s order will require the companies a further proceeding to recover the costs of implementing the upgrades, according to the commission.“Determining the path forward for these plants is a complex process, and we appreciate the Commission’s recognition of this, and its timely review of updated information in this case,” Appalachian Power spokesman Phil Moye said in an email. “We are evaluating the order and working to determine what other actions need to be taken to move forward.” The companies initially presented a $383.5 million cost estimate for environmental upgrades at all three plants. They later revised that estimate to $448.3 million and said it was subject to change.
Coal is 'king' as gas prices soar, Total CEO says — and it's backfiring on cleaner energy goals - urging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grapples with worsening gas shortages. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne on Wednesday stressed the need to achieve price stability, contending that lower gas prices will reduce the need to rely on the higher-polluting coal, but that the transition to cleaner energy has also created an imbalance in the market. "High pricing is not good news — of course immediately for my company results are better, but for customers" is it not, Pouyanne told CNBC's Hadley Gamble during a Russia Energy Week panel in Moscow. Replacing coal with gas "is good for climate change, but to do that, we need to have a lower price," the CEO said. "Because coal today is a king, because coal is cheaper than all the other sources of energy." Coal-produced electricity has shot up in Europe, and European coal futures have more than doubled since the start of the year. And the irony is clear, as this is happening just as Europe is trying to reduce its use of the polluting fuel. Gas prices in Europe, meanwhile, have nearly quadrupled since the start of the year. "So for us today prices are too high. We have to find stability, going back to something more normal," Pouyanne said. He added that this is not merely a European gas crisis, but a global one, stemming from both a "huge hike in demand for gas from China and Asia," as well as "more demand for gas because of energy transition, going from coal to gas, which is good for climate change." "So that is I think a lesson," Pouyanne said. "Another is that the more we put renewables in our electric system, we put in intermittent sources which depend on the weather." Pouyanne, like many other oil and gas company executives, has noted the risk of renewables that rely on weather. Brazil, which has increased its reliance on hydropower, saw less rain this year, while other parts of the world that have invested heavily in solar and wind power saw less sun and wind. BP CEO Bernard Looney, speaking on the same panel, echoed Pouyanne's concern. "I think that this crisis in Europe has reminded us that energy is part of the lifeblood of society and that energy use is only going in one direction — and that is upwards," Looney said. "We all understand that the sun doesn't shine at night and the wind doesn't always blow so we have that question of renewables' intermittency to deal with."
Volatile energy markets are here to stay, IEA warns -Energy prices around the world are at record highs as a power crunch hits Europe and Asia — and the International Energy Agency warned Wednesday that volatility is here to stay.In its annual report, the Paris-based agency said the world is underinvesting now for future energy consumption, which will make the transition to net-zero emissions unstable. "There is a looming risk of more turbulence for global energy markets," Fatih Birol, IEA's executive director, said in a statement. "We are not investing enough to meet... future energy needs, and the uncertainties are setting the stage for a volatile period ahead."The report pointed to policy and demand uncertainties, among other things, as reasons behind the current underinvestment. The perils of an energy complex that's mismatched on the supply and demand side is playing out now as the global economic recovery from Covid-19 continues. Energy demand has jumped as businesses reopen and consumers return to pre-pandemic activities, but supply has remained tight with producers reluctant to bring new production online.Oil prices are up more than 60% for 2021 after plunging to record lows in April 2020, while U.S. natural gas prices have more than doubled this year. In Europe, spot natural gas prices hit an all-time high this fall, while coal prices are also rising amid preparations for the winter heating season.Higher fuel costs will be passed along to consumers and businesses, potentially hitting the economic recovery."As events in 2021 show, consumers are vulnerable when prices rise sharply," the report said. "Volatility and price shocks cannot be discounted during the transition."The World Energy Outlook report outlines three possible scenarios ahead, in order to try and understand what the energy system will look like decades from now.
- Stated Policies Scenario: based on policies that have already been implemented;
- Announced Pledges Scenario: factors in targets that have been made but not yet reached. In this scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 2025;
- Net Zero Emissions by 2050: factors in what needs to be done to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The report noted that for the first time in its projections, oil demand is seen declining in each scenario, but the pace varies greatly. This in turn creates challenges for energy producers.
A century later, utilities still face billions in potential liabilities from obsolete manufactured gas plants | Utility Dive - Soon after moving into a new home in San Francisco's Marina District, Dan Clarke began stumbling across what he thought were peculiar black rocks in his yard. Clarke, who bought the house in 2000 after retiring, described the rocks as crumbly and fragile, ranging from peanut-sized to some that were larger than a softball. He didn't know what they were until a decade later, when he and several neighbors received a letter from their utility company, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), he told Utility Dive. The letter informed them that their properties were located around the sites of what used to be manufactured gas plants (MGPs) — historic facilities that more than a century ago produced gas for homes and businesses and, in many cases, according to experts, left behind residues from their operations. Regulators and toxicologists did not believe the sites posed a health concern, PG&E wrote, but the utility was conducting a program to survey these properties and confirm that belief. After receiving the letter, Clarke brought the utility a shoebox full of the black rocks he'd been finding in his backyard. PG&E tested the rocks and informed him that they contained chemicals well in excess of concentrations designated as hazardous by the Environmental Protection Agency, and they appeared to be a product of the old MGP, he said. "So at that point, we had confirmed contamination on the property — and literally on the surface of the yard," Clarke said. The former MGP site whose footprint Clarke's home is located on is one of 42 plants identified as having been owned or operated by PG&E, and the utility is not unique in this regard. Thousands of MGPs dotted the U.S. landscape in the 19th century, producing gas that was used for heating, lighting and cooking. Today's utilities have inherited many of these sites along with the responsibilities for addressing the wastes the plants left behind, which regulators say contain known or suspected carcinogens and other hazardous chemicals. Several utilities have made substantial progress on addressing the issue, experts say. But thanks to a variety of factors — including the complicated remediation processes involved, access issues and in some cases, lack of knowledge — utilities and other parties with MGP liabilities still face a significant amount of technically and logistically challenging work, at substantial cost, they note.
Conservation district raises concerns about potential loss of AMD cleanup funding - – Funding for abandoned mine cleanup may soon dry up. Local officials gathered at Kosta’s Restaurant in Ebensburg on Friday for a legislative breakfast hosted by the Cambria County Conservation District, where District Manager John Dryzal informed officials that the Surface Mine Reclamation Act was not reauthorized by Congress. He said the program expired at the end of September. The act had allowed for funds to be collected through the Abandoned Mine Reclamation Fund. “This is money that is collected to manage these (acid mine drainage) issues that need cleaning up,” he said. “We supported two world wars with the coal mining, and we’re left with the scars.” Dryzal said the grant money goes to projects that address health and safety concerns, which often includes fixing sinkholes left by collapsed mines, and clearing bony piles. “In the past, we’ve had several piles on fire and have needed to extinguish the piles,” he said. “These are the kind of projects that this funded.” Dryzal noted that there is language in the infrastructure bill that is currently being debated that would restart the program. “Our big concern is that failure to reauthorize this fee could jeopardize our future AMD projects,” he said. “... It’s a heavy lift for Pennsylvania. Us and Kentucky are the big states that really need the money. We’re the ones that have these big scars.”
Utility CEOs look to nuclear, burying lines as ways to address climate risk, ESG -S&P Global Market Intelligence - Along with renewable investments, the chief executives of some of nation's largest investor-owned utilities are looking to underground transmission lines, nuclear and carbon capture as strategies to mitigate climate risk and address environmental, social and governance concerns by investors. "I have long been a triple, bottom-line leader," PG&E Corp. CEO Patricia Poppe said during a panel discussion hosted Oct. 12 by S&P Global Ratings. "When I say that, I mean people, our planet and California's prosperity in the context of PG&E." Poppe, who took the reins of the San Francisco-headquartered utility in early January, said she visited Paradise, Calif., during her first day on the job. In June 2020, PG&E Corp. utility subsidiary Pacific Gas and Electric Co. pleaded guilty to 84 counts of manslaughter after its equipment ignited the 2018 Camp Fire that destroyed the town of Paradise in Butte County, Calif. Pacific Gas and Electric, known as PG&E, in July unveiled plans to bury about 10,000 miles of distribution lines to help prevent its power lines from triggering catastrophic and deadly wildfires, which also led to a $58 billion joint restructuring plan. Poppe noted that PG&E has already committed to underground lines in Paradise and other parts of Butte County. "I was able to see on that first day the efficiencies that we've gained in doing undergrounding more at scale than in the more traditional sense," Poppe said. "In this case, we were able to dramatically reduce the cost." "[A]nd then, when I learned that we spend $1.4 billion a year in expense managing vegetation ... and yet there is still 8 million trees within strike distance of our lines, I realized that we were on the wrong path," the CEO said, adding that "undergrounding becomes the obvious solution." Poppe said the capital program will allow PG&E to "spread the cost for customers, eliminate that vegetation management expense, or at least reduce it dramatically in the places where we do undergrounding, and have a more sustainable and safer energy delivery system." "I think it of it as sort of the perfect triple, bottom-line solution," Poppe said. "We're able to make an investment that makes the system safer and save our customers from high bills they can't afford and we get to save their trees. So we're protecting our planet for the long haul."
Dominion asks for state approval of plans to extend life of nuclear plants beyond 2050 - Dominion Energy is asking Virginia regulators to approve its plans to extend the federal licenses of its Surry and North Anna nuclear plants, as well as an estimated $3.9 billion in costs to keep the workhorse facilities running past 2050. Nuclear energy currently produces about a third of the electricity used by Dominion’s Virginia customers and is set to become even more critical as a source of baseload power as Virginia transitions away from fossil fuels under the Virginia Clean Economy Act. The nuclear units are responsible for 90 percent of Dominion’s carbon-free generation in Virginia, said Mark Sartrain, Dominion’s vice president of nuclear engineering and fleet support, in testimony to the Virginia State Corporation Commission last week. “As the company transitions away from certain fossil-fuel generating technologies to a more renewable portfolio, an underlying assumption of the company’s ability to comply with recent policy goals and mandates is that the nuclear generating units will continue to reliably serve customers well into the future,” Sartrain wrote. “The path to carbon-free generation depends on the continued service of the company’s nuclear fleet.” Under the Virginia Clean Economy Act and other 2020 legislation authorizing the state’s participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a carbon cap-and-trade market, Virginia’s electric utilities must source all of their non-nuclear energy from renewables by 2050. Federal regulators signed off on license extensions for the Surry units in May and are still reviewing North Anna’s extension applications, with a final decision expected in the second quarter of 2022. If the NRC grants North Anna’s extension, it will leave all four of the state’s nuclear units with an authorized lifespan of 80 years.
Extending Dominion's Millstone nuclear plant a 'critical' part of path to zero carbon, Connecticut finds | Utility Dive Connecticut has "multiple pathways" to achieving a 100% clean electricity system by 2040, but getting there will require wholesale market reforms alongside the addition of energy storage and demand management resources, according to the state's final 2020 Integrated Resources Plan (IRP). The Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) released the plan Thursday, which also calls for the state to "maintain historic deployment levels of distributed generation" and remove barriers to participation in clean energy programs for underserved communities. To begin implementation of the plan, DEEP also launched stakeholder processes to consider how its procurement authority can be used for energy storage, and to seek input on potential changes to the electric sector's greenhouse gas accounting methodology.The IRP is Connecticut's first analysis of how it can achieve a 100% clean electricity supply by 2040, a goal set by Gov. Ned Lamont, D, in 2019. Already, the system is heading towards more than 90% carbon-free status, according to the assessment.The goal is "achievable," DEEP Commissioner Katie Dykes said in a statement, with "continued focus on regional market reform, modernized transmission, and investment in efficiency, storage, and zero carbon renewables."The IRP found Connecticut ratepayers already support, through long-term contracts, more than 600,000 MWh/year of grid-scale renewables and more than 9 million MWh/year of nuclear resources. That's equivalent to almost 65% of the electricity delivered by the state's largest utilities, and puts them on pace to reach 92% clean electricity by 2025.Eversource, the largest energy provider in the region, said it was still reviewing the plan but looked forward to working with state officials to "lower costs for customers, improve reliability and advance clean energy." "The significant investments Connecticut has made over the years in robust clean energy and energy efficiency programs have already put the state on a strong path to achieving the 100% Zero Carbon Target," the IRP concluded. Some additional steps will be necessary, though, possibly including keeping Dominion Energy's Millstone nuclear plant online beyond its current contract."The retention of Millstone beyond 2029 is a critical factor in how much more and how quickly Connecticut needs to procure new clean energy additions," the IRP concluded.
1st executive to head to prison in doomed nuclear project (AP) — A former utility executive who lied to ratepayers and regulators costing billions of dollars after he found out a pair of nuclear reactors being built in South Carolina were hopelessly behind schedule will soon be heading to prison for two years.A state judge Monday accepted the negotiated sentence of former SCANA CEO Kevin Marsh. He is the first executive to go to prison over the project, which lasted nine years and never generated a watt of power.Marsh has cooperated with investigators, spending at least seven days talking to the FBI, prosecutors said. “A CEO for a Fortune 500 company is going to prison and is paying $5 million to the people of South Carolina,” state Attorney General Alan Wilson said outside the Spartanburg County courtroom.Under the agreement, Marsh is to report in early December to a federal prison in Butner, North Carolina, which includes a large hospital — rather than a state facility. He will serve the entire federal two-year federal sentence.South Carolina Circuit Judge Mark Hayes suspended a 10-year state sentence, but told Marsh he will have to serve it if he does not keep cooperating or fails to successfully serve three years of probation.Marsh isn’t the only executive facing legal problems. A second former SCANA executive and an official at Westinghouse Electric Co., the lead contractor to build two new reactors at the V.C. Summer plant north of Columbia, have also pleaded guilty. A second Westinghouse executive has been indicted and is awaiting trial.Prosecutors now are expected to turn their attention to Westinghouse. While Marsh lied about the lack of progress in the final years of construction of the reactors, Westinghouse knew of the problem long before and did not tell Marsh or other SCANA executives, U.S. Assistant Attorney Brook Andrews said at Marsh’s sentencing Thursday in federal court.
Macron Says Small Nuclear Reactors Will Be A Part Of His "France 2030" Energy Plan - Nuclear power is officially a part of President Emmanuel Macron's plan for France to become a green leader by 2030. The country is looking at the idea of building smaller nuclear reactors, according to a plan to become a leader in green hydrogen that was detailed this week."We must wage the battle of innovation and industrialisation at the same time," the French president told a gathering of business leaders and young entrepreneurs, unveiling plans to invest €30 billion ($35 billion) to "re-industrialise," Macron said in remarks, according to France 24. Widely seen as laying out his plan for reelection, Macron said that France was going to build "a low-carbon plane, a small modular reactor as well as two megafactories for the production of green hydrogen" by 2030. He called his plans "France 2030" and said they would offer benefits to smaller startup companies in the space. Speaking about ongoing supply chain shortages, he said: "We must rebuild a framework to ensure the productive independence of France and Europe. The winner takes it all." Macron seems to be adopting the attitude of countries like Finland and Japan, both of whom seem to be once again warming up to the idea of nuclear power. Finland, we noted today, is officially lobbying the EU for "sustainable" status for nuclear power.
Ohioans still paying massive coal plant subsidies under House Bill 6 - cleveland.com—While state lawmakers have repealed a controversial $1 billion-plus bailout of two Ohio nuclear power plants passed under House Bill 6, another part of the scandal-ridden law still on the books is expected to cost Ohio ratepayers even more money to subsidize two 1950s-era coal plants in Ohio and Indiana.And while some state lawmakers are pushing to eliminate the subsidies, which a recent study found could cost Ohioans a total of $1.8 billion by 2030, there currently isn’t enough support in the Republican-dominated state legislature to pass such a repeal.That’s even though they’ve repealed other parts of HB6 – including the nuclear bailout – as Republican ex-House Speaker Larry Householder and others were charged with using $60 million in FirstEnergy Corp. bribe money to get the bill passed.Millions of ratepayers in Ohio -- as well as six other states – pay money through their utility companies to cover debts for the Kyger Creek plant in Clifton, Ohio and the Clifty Creek plant in Madison, Indiana. Both plants are operated by the Ohio Valley Electric Corporation, which is owned by more than a dozen utility companies, including American Electric Power, Duke Energy, AES Ohio (formerly called Dayton Power & Light), and two subsidiaries of FirstEnergy Corp.The plants were built in the mid-1950s to provide power to a uranium enrichment plant in Southern Ohio. The enrichment plant closed in 2003, but OVEC decided to keep them running. To do so, OVEC spent more than $1.3 billion on “scrubbers” to reduce the plants’ sulfur emissions. In addition, the cost of generating power from the plants has been far higher than market prices, according to a study released last month by the Ohio Manufacturers Association. AEP, Duke, and AES Ohio customers have already been paying for years to help keep the plants in operation, under proposals approved by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. HB6 codified those subsidies into state law through 2030.The energy law also mandated that, starting in January 2020, FirstEnergy customers had to begin paying subsidies for the plants. Exactly how much each Ohio utility customer pays to subsidize the coal plants varies month to month, depending on the wholesale energy market and other factors. Duke Energy, AEP Ohio, and AES Ohio residential ratepayers currently pay an average of $1.30, $1.07, and $1.06 per month, respectively, according to officials with the respective companies. Bipartisan bills to repeal the OVEC subsidies have been introduced in both the Ohio House and Senate. While lawmakers have held a handful of hearings on each of the bills, House Majority Floor Leader Bill Seitz, a Cincinnati Republican who was a key supporter of HB6, said in an interview that neither has the support needed to pass the legislature and go to GOP Gov. Mike DeWine, who signed HB6 but now favors repealing and replacing the law. “They’ve introduced God knows how many bills -- none of them are going anywhere, in my humble opinion,” Seitz said.
FirstEnergy, DeWine’s office and others still far from full disclosure on HB 6 - Advocates, lawmakers, regulators and the public still can’t get all documents relevant to the state’s $60 million House Bill 6 scandal involving ousted Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, FirstEnergy and others. Barriers include protective orders, privilege and confidentiality claims, delays and other roadblocks.The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio “must first broadly investigate FirstEnergy in order to learn the facts for remedying any consumer harm,” said Merrilee Embs, spokesperson for Ohio Consumers’ Counsel Bruce Weston. “Ohioans are owed the facts by their state government. Unfortunately, in PUCO cases some facts can be hard to come by from FirstEnergy.”In broad terms, federal and state court cases allege that FirstEnergy, its affiliates, and others paid roughly $60 million to dark money groups to elect supporters of Householder, secure the passage of HB 6, and block a voter referendum to stop it. FirstEnergy has also admitted to paying millions of dollars to a company linked to Sam Randazzo, including $4.3 million shortly before he became chair of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio.HB 6’s nuclear subsidies and recession-proofing provisions have been repealed. However, other parts of the law still require Ohioans to pay roughly $233,000 per dayfor two 1950s-era coal plants, known as the OVEC plants. The law also gutted Ohio’s clean energy standards.Although FirstEnergy made some admissions this summer, the company is “still trying to sit on more details and information that seem really important for a lot of people to understand what potential penalties the company could still be facing going forward,” said Dave Anderson, policy and communications manager for the Energy and Policy Institute.“What we’ve seen to date suggests there’s a lot not to trust,” Anderson said.At the Public Utilities Commission, for example, FirstEnergy wants to block a mid-case appeal by the Office of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel on document production issues. Among other things, the Consumers’ Counsel wants copies of all documents from the investigation that led FirstEnergy to fire former CEO Chuck Jones and others. Those materials presumably include information about Randazzo. The requested documents could also reveal more about payments to Generation Now and other dark money groups that allegedly furthered Householder’s and FirstEnergy’s interests.The Consumers’ Counsel also wants documents FirstEnergy may have produced in civil court cases, such as shareholder lawsuits against the company. Some of those cases are on hold during the criminal case against Householder and others. In cases that are moving ahead, FirstEnergy has sought court orders to restrict who sees documents produced to various parties. In at least one case, opponents can’t evenshare the materials with lawyers in other cases against the company. So, the Consumers’ Counsel needs an order from the PUCO to get the documents. “What happened with FirstEnergy was systemic,” said Ashley Brown, a former PUCO commissioner who now heads the Harvard Electricity Policy Group at the Harvard Kennedy School. In his view, the PUCO should want to get its hands on all relevant materials, including whatever report justified FirstEnergy’s ouster of Jones and others.. Without it, regulatory agencies are “not credible.” Nor, he added, can future abuses be prevented without full disclosure of all facts.
Ohio Supreme Court: PUCO improperly approved FirstEnergy affiliate --Ohio's utility regulators shouldn't have approved an Akron-based FirstEnergy affiliate to help consumers shop for electricity, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled Thursday. In April 2020 the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio led by chairman Sam Randazzo approved FirstEnergy Advisors as a "competitive retail electric service provider" – essentially an energy broker and aggregator that shops for electricity for customers. More: Top state regulator paid millions for part-time work, FirstEnergy agreement shows These brokers are an alternative to purchasing energy directly from a distribution company like FirstEnergy's Ohio Edison. By bringing customers together, brokers can negotiate for better prices. The PUCO must approve all brokers to ensure they are separate from distribution companies and meet other requirements like "managerial, financial and technical fitness." The Ohio Consumers’ Counsel and the Northeast Ohio Public Energy Council opposed FirstEnergy Advisors' application, saying that the applicant shared a parent company, FirstEnergy Corp., and several executives with the distribution companies. A 2018 independent audit raised the same corporate-separation concerns with nuclear plant owner FirstEnergy Solutions, but the company emerged from bankruptcy as a separate entity: Energy Harbor. PUCO staff ultimately disagreed with consumer advocates, saying in a two-paragraph finding that FirstEnergy Advisors intended to comply with all commission rules and recommended that it be approved. The consumer advocates sued, bringing the case to the Ohio Supreme Court. On Thursday the Ohio Supreme Court ruled that the PUCO should not have approved FirstEnergy Advisors' application. “Rather than relying on the company’s stated intent, PUCO should have identified plans, procedures, and protocols FirstEnergy Advisors has in place that show the company is fit and capable of complying with all applicable commission rules and orders,” Justice Pat DeWine wrote in the unanimous decision. The Supreme Court sent the matter back to the PUCO for additional hearings. Consumer advocates could have the opportunity to raise their concerns there.
Looking out for Ohio’s energy workers - Senator Sherrod Brown - No matter how the energy sector evolves, Ohio workers will always be our greatest resource. It was mineworkers and steelworkers and other American workers in our great industrial unions who powered our economy and helped build our middle class.But for several decades now, a combination of market forces, foreign competition, government policy, and two economic crises in the span of a decade, have all contributed to decreasing coal employment and big changes in the energy sector. We can only expect those changes to continue, as our country fights climate change and innovates with new, renewable energy sources.We cannot allow the workers who powered our country to get left behind as we adopt new technology and grow the renewable energy sector – that’s why this week I introduced the American Energy Worker Opportunity Act, to look out for these workers.For too long, we’ve had politicians try to sell Ohio energy workers a fantasy that long-closed mines would reopen, instead of treating Ohioans with respect, and positioning workers to train, get new jobs, and thrive as the energy industry changes.My bill would provide critical resources and training opportunities to workers whose jobs are affected by the shrinking of the coal, oil, and gas sectors in the coming years. These resources include temporary wage replacements and assistance to maintain their health benefits and retirement contributions, and grants for education and training for themselves and their children, including a 4-year degree if they choose.This bill would also give these workers priority for jobs created in renewable energy projects funded through President Biden’s Build Back Better plan.
Does "other Minerals" Language In Ohio Deeds Include Oil And Gas? It Depends. - Earlier this year, Ohio's Court of Appeals for the Seventh District weighed in on the question of whether "other minerals" in a deed included oil and gas. The answer is, essentially, it depends.The presumption under Ohio law is that "other minerals" in deeds does include oil and gas, but that presumption can be overcome. In reaching that conclusion in O'Brandovich v. Hess Ohio Devs., LLC, the Court of Appeals walked through and provided the rationale behind the facts and outcomes of what it viewed as the major cases developing the presumption
- Detlor v. Holland
- Gordon v. Carter Oil, Co.
- Hardesty v. Harrison
- Jividen v. New Pittsburg Coal Co.
- Muffley v. M.B. Operating Co., Inc.
- Wiseman v. Cambria Products Co.
- Coldwell v. Moore
- Sheba v. Kautz; and
- Corso v. Miser
"It is clear from this line of cases that we are now to begin our analysis with a presumption that the phrase 'other minerals' includes oil and gas interests," the court noted. "With that in mind, it must then be determined if the deed demonstrates whether the parties intended to include oil and gas interests. If the deed is ambiguous, then the parties are permitted to introduce extrinsic evidence to demonstrate the parties' intent."When looking at the deed language to determine whether the presumption is overcome, the courts are to consider whether the instrument "includes language that may be relevant to the extraction of oil and gas." The Court of Appeals also noted, though, that "[i]f oil and gas was not commonly being produced at the time the deed was written, we cannot presume it was intended to include these minerals."The Court of Appeals explained that "[o]nce production [of oil and gas] in Ohio became fairly commonplace, however, we may expect some reference to oil and gas when using the general language 'other minerals.' This has come to mean that, in Ohio, we start with the presumption that the general phrase may include oil and gas rights so long as the language can be reasonably seen to include these minerals in some way and other language in the deed does not exclude these minerals."Ultimately, the Court of Appeals concluded the deed language before it was not ambiguous and did not overcome the presumption. Thus, in this case, "other minerals" did include oil and gas.
Old oil and gas sites are a climate menace. Meet the company that owns more of America’s decaying wells than any other. -- When a couple of Bloomberg Green reporters showed up at the Tri-Valley Wildlife Area in the rolling hills of southeast Ohio on a muggy June morning, the only sounds were birdsongs and the whirring of our infrared camera. We set out on foot and soon spotted the first of several rusty natural gas wells scattered across a broad meadow. Their storage tanks, half-covered with vines and brush, looked like the forgotten monuments of some lost civilization. There are hundreds of thousands of such decrepit oil and gas wells across the U.S., and for a long time few people paid them much mind. That changed over the past decade as scientists discovered the surprisingly large role they play in the climate crisis. Old wells tend to leak, and raw natural gas consists mostly of methane, which has far more planet-warming power than carbon dioxide. That morning in Ohio we pointed our camera at busted pipes, rusted joints, and broken valves, and we saw the otherwise invisible greenhouse gas jetting out. A sour smell lingered in the air. To Rusty Hutson, it smells like money.Hutson is the founder and chief executive officer of one of the strangest companies ever to hit the American oil patch and the reason for our four-day visit to the Appalachian region. While other oilmen focus on drilling the next gusher, Hutson buys used wells that generate just a trickle or nothing at all. Over the past four years his Diversified Energy Co. has amassed about 69,000 wells, eclipsing Exxon Mobil Corp. to become the largest well owner in the country. Investors love him. Since listing shares in 2017, Hutson’s company has outperformed almost every other U.S. oil and gas stock, swelling his personal stake to more than $30 million. But Diversified’s breakneck growth has alarmed some regulators, landowner groups, and industry insiders, not to mention environmental advocates. State laws require that every well be plugged with cement after it runs dry, an expensive and complicated chore. At the rate Diversified is paying dividends to shareholders, some worry there will be nothing left when the bills come due. If a company can’t meet its plugging obligations, that burden falls to the state, which means Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia could be stuck with a billion-dollar mess. “The model seems like it’s built on abandoning those assets,” says Ted Boettner, who’s studied abandoned wells at the Ohio River Valley Institute, a regional research organization. “It looks like a liability bomb that’s destined to explode.”Hutson says there’s no cause for worry. He claims to be able to squeeze more gas out of old wells than other companies can and keep them going longer. On average, he figures his wells have an additional 50 years in them, which means there’s no hurry to start socking away money to plug them. It also means they could be spouting pollution long past 2050, the target date set by PresidentJoe Biden for zeroing out emissions across the economy. State regulators say Diversified hasn’t broken any rules by building an empire of dying wells. Nor has it violated any restrictions on methane emissions, because none apply. Indeed, state and federal policies—from plugging regulations to tax subsidies—encourage companies to do exactly what Diversified is doing: Keep almost dead assets on life support as long as possible, no matter how much they may damage the planet.
A Tiny Alabama Company Owns More Gas Wells Than Exxon - A Birmingham-based oil and gas producer called Diversified Energy has built its business model on buying up old, low-producing gas wells which are spewing out methane, reporting from Bloomberg shows. The wells are largely not very productive—thousands of them were producing no usable gas at all at the time of purchase. But thanks to subsidies, tax incentives, legal loopholes, and an overall lack of regulation, the company has managed to beat out almost every other fossil fuel company stock in the U.S. The very existence of this company is a sign of the market’s complete inability to usher in meaningful climate action.It’s never been clearer that the world must stop coal, oil, and gas production. Even the International Energy Agency—which was founded by Henry Kissinger, not hippie climate activists—is calling for the end of fossil fuels. Free market believers, from those at the World Economic Forum to those inthe White House, say that companies can lead this transition.Yet for now, dirty energy still largely powers our world, so it’s still profitable, and it’s also heavily subsidized and poorly regulated by the U.S. and most other countries. It should be no surprise that corporations are still making a killing, but Diversified Energy is a particularly shocking example of how to legally game the system. The Bloomberg report found the company has amassed some 69,000 wells, more than name-brand companies like Exxon and Chevron, and what amounts to “about 1 in 5 wells across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.”Research shows that aging and abandoned oil and gas wells are among the dirtiest ones in the nation. Methane is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in terms of how much it heats up the planet. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found methane levels in the atmosphere haven’t been this high in at least 800,000 years and sounded the alarm about the risks it poses. The new Bloomberg report suggests that Diversified’s wells aren’t an exception to the old and abandoned well rule. “At 59% of the sites we visited, emissions were significant enough to cause our detector to sound a safety alarm, indicating that the concentration of methane near the instrument’s sensor exceeded 5,000 parts per million,” the authors wrote. “Normal air contains about 2 parts.” The fact that Diversified owns so many wells also creates a very dangerous situation. Should the company go under or otherwise not meet the obligations to plug the wells it owns, the states where it operates would be on the hook. Diversified claims it has cheap techniques to revive wells and plug them. But if it fails, it would leave states with a very costly project to clean up the mess.“The model seems like it’s built on abandoning those assets,” Ted Boettner, a researcher at the Ohio River Valley Institute who has looked at abandoned wells, told Bloomberg. “It looks like a liability bomb that’s destined to explode.”
EAP Seeks Permits for Three Wells in Columbiana County - EAP Ohio LLC, a division of Houston-based Encino Acquisition Partners, has applied for permits to drill three new wells in Columbiana County, according to data from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. The applications were filed Oct. 5 and target the Point Pleasant formation of the Utica shale play in Washington Township, ODNR data show. All three wells are intended for the Maskaluk well pad, according to ODNR. EAP has stepped up its drilling program in Columbiana County. In September, the energy company received five permits from ODNR, four to deepen existing wells and another to drill a new well at the Sevek pad in Washington Township. In 2018, the company purchased the remaining leaseholds of Chesapeake Energy Corp. when the Oklahoma City driller sold its position in the Utica. Columbiana County continues to be the most active region for energy exploration companies doing business in the northern tier of the Utica-Point Pleasant play.
Report: Drilling spills ruined wells and polluted streams in Westmoreland, across Pennsylvania - It has been more than four years since Edward and Alice Mioduski of Loyalhanna Township have been able to drink water from their well near Loyalhanna Lake.Drilling mud mixed with the mineral bentonite leaked from the hole that Sunoco Pipeline L.P. was boring underneath the lake in May 2017. It bled into the aquifer that their 95-foot-deep well had tapped into for decades. The crystal-clear water turned cloudy gray with little white blobs floating around.“Within a short time, it went to hell,” Alice Mioduski said. Now, they have a 1,500-gallon plastic tank in their backyard that provides water for showering and washing clothes — when it doesn’t freeze in the winter — paid for by Sunoco. A filtration system inside the house provides water for drinking and cooking. The damage to streams and water supplies by the leaks and lost fluids during construction of the 307-mile Mariner East II pipeline is outlined in a 64-page indictment handed down last week by a statewide investigating grand jury. Energy Transfer L.P. of Dallas, a successor to Sunoco Pipeline, was slapped with 48 criminal violations of the Clean Streams Law. Fluids that were to return to the surface and be dumped into a drill pit for reuse simply disappeared underground or bubbled up to the surface.The grand jury alleges Sunoco “criminally failed” to report and resolve the environmental hazards created by Mariner East II across the state. The energy giant is accused of failing to report environmental violations or underreporting those problems, permitting horizontal drilling where it did not have permits and having its drilling subcontractors use drilling fluids not permitted in Pennsylvania. The grand jury found Sunoco hired subcontractors for horizontal directional drilling who were not familiar with the state’s geology or regulations, and that those companies hired workers who were young and inexperienced. The Mioduskis want Sunoco to drill another well on their property rather than having to maintain a filtration system to remove the pollution from their existing well for what could be years and years. “We’re retired. We’re in our 70s. We just want to get our water back,” Ed Mioduski said. The Mioduskis were not alone in having their water supply impacted by the pipeline project. The state Department of Environmental Protection received 183 complaints about water supply issues from the drilling, according to the attorney general’s report.In some instances, those problems were created when high pressure used to force fluids into the bore hole while drilling beneath streams and lakes resulted in fractures in the rocks that allowed the fluids to flow into the aquifer used for well water. The fluids were to return to the surface and be dumped into a drill pit for treatment and reuse. Instead, they disappeared underground or bubbled up to the surface, according to the report.The attorney general’s criminal complaint alleges six offenses — one felony and five misdemeanors — with multiple counts that occurred between February 2017 and August 2021. Under state law, the company would only pay a fine and restitution if it is found guilty, Attorney General Josh Shapiro said. The state’s environmental regulations were not created for oversight of long linear industrial projects such as a statewide pipeline,
Pa. shale gas permits drop 28% month over month despite spiking prices | S&P Global Market Intelligence - Pennsylvania's largest shale gas producers — who have a history of increasing output to chase high futures prices only to register steep losses after glutting the market — continue to stick to low-growth, low-cost drilling plans even as natural gas prices surpass the $5/MMBtu mark. Permits for shale gas wells increased 7% in September compared to the same month in 2020, when spot prices hovered around $1.90/MMBtu, but dropped 28% from the prior month, according to permitting data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection accessed Oct. 6. Well permits are a leading indicator of drilling activity in the state, and four of the state's five biggest producers — EQT Corp., Chesapeake Energy Corp., Range Resources Corp. and Southwestern Energy Co. — kept the pace subdued. The top five producers accounted for only 51% of the permits pulled in September, down from 53% in August. Normally, the top five drillers account for roughly two-thirds of permits pulled each month. The only producer among the top five with a large year-over-year increase in permits was Cabot Oil & Gas, now named Coterra Energy Inc. after closing its merger with Cimarex Energy Co. on Oct. 1. Coterra told investors during its second-quarter earnings call that it planned to add wells to fill new pipeline capacity opening up as The Williams Companies Inc. brings the 580 MMcf/d Leidy South expansion of its Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC online in the northeast portion of the state. Unlike its peers, Coterra will enter 2022 with no gas production protected with hedges that would clip the upside of the potential revenue generated by high prices this winter. While the high prices at the benchmark Henry Hub are a sharp contrast from the rock-bottom revenues drillers eked out of the Marcellus Shale in years past, the curve of NYMEX futures prices drops off quickly when winter 2022 ends. Toby Rice, the head of EQT, the nation's largest gas producer by volume, has said repeatedly that he will not add more rigs and cash to the Pittsburgh producer's business plan until seeing prices above $3/MMBtu for two to three years in the future. Shale oil and gas exploration and production companies, or E&Ps, are looking beyond the high winter prices and biding their time, "While current $76.99 per barrel and $5.72/Mcf prices receive the attention, the more important prices for our companies are in the 12-month strip currently at $70.77/barrel and $3.97/Mcf," Pennsylvania's September data showed the shape of the Marcellus Shale play changing slightly as the big drillers stayed put and smaller, private producers focused on the liquids-rich window of the play in the southwest. Private equity-backed operator PennEnergy Resources LLC pulled six permits to drill in Butler County, Pa., just north of Pittsburgh, while family-owned driller Snyder Brothers Inc. pulled seven permits in its home of Armstrong County, Pa., just to the east of Butler County.
Pennsylvania Nuns Push Back Against Judge's Decision on TransCo Pipeline Lawsuit - A handful of Catholic nuns in Pennsylvania are not happy about the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co LLC’s decision to build a pipeline through Allentown, so much so that they filed a lawsuit claiming the pipeline “defiled the sacred nature of their property in eastern Pennsylvania.” A federal judge dismissed the lawsuit, but the nuns, who belong to the Adorers of the Blood of Christ order, are challenging the judge’s decision. According to the nuns, the construction of a “section of the Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline on their land in Lancaster County violates their religious practice under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act.” As a result, they are asking the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to look into the September ruling that dismissed their suit. The Adorers first filed their lawsuit against Transcontinental last year. They argued that the pipeline, “which was built and put into service in 2018, substantially burden(s) their exercise of religion.” The particular religious order, which first began work in Pennsylvania in 1925, believes in “protecting God’s creation by preserving the environment for future generations.” As a result, they “have been fighting climate change following a call by Pope Francis in a 2015 encyclical letter for the world’s then 1.2 billion Catholics to join the fight.” The lawsuit claimed the nuns are protected under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, “a statute whose goal is to protect religious exercise, to punitive damages.” However, on September 30, U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Schmehl said the nuns “filed their lawsuit in the wrong venue and his court lacked jurisdiction.” The judge stated: “The Natural Gas Act, which governs interstate natural gas pipelines, gives the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit exclusive jurisdiction over the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) certificates, such as the one it handed Transco in 2017 for the pipeline.” What does that mean? Well, it means the “sisters should have challenged the decision first by petitioning FERC and subsequently by filing their lawsuit in the D.C. Circuit rather than in a district court,” according to Schmehl. This wasn’t the first time that the judge has ruled on a case filed by the sisters. In fact, back in January, he ruled that Transcontinental owed the sisters almost $170,000 over a lawsuit filed in 2017 “over the condemnation of an acre of the sisters’ 24-acre tract for the pipeline.” While the Adorers have a problem with the environmental aspect of the pipeline, it is important to note that the “The Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline transports Marcellus shale gas from Pennsylvania to markets across the mid-Atlantic and southeastern states.”
The Rise Of Responsibly Sourced Natural Gas --Given everything that’s happened lately on the ESG front — with a lot more expected — it’s safe to say that while hydrocarbons will continue to play an important role in the global economy for the foreseeable future, the companies that produce, transport and process crude oil, natural gas and NGLs will need to work much harder to minimize and mitigate their impact on the environment. Traditional energy companies have been scrambling to respond to the full-court press by investors, lenders and others to rein in and offset their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition to establishing goals for slashing their GHGs, and taking steps to tighten their upstream, midstream, and downstream operations, they’ve offered and delivered “carbon-neutral” shipments of LNG, oil and LPG to overseas buyers, using “nature-based” carbon credits to offset their life-cycle emissions. Now, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, there’s a big push by U.S. gas distributors and other buyers to shift to gas that’s been produced, gathered, processed and transported as cleanly as humanly possible. Over the last year, concern about climate change has reached critical mass and the pressure is on the energy industry to figure out how it’s going to navigate the uncertain waters ahead. While some on the fringes are sure to disagree, it seems likely that natural gas will continue to play an important role in U.S. and global energy supply for at least the next couple of decades, and maybe longer. However, methane (CH4), the primary component of pipeline gas, may not be ideal — it not only produces carbon dioxide (CO2) when it’s consumed, it’s a very potent GHG on its own and releasing even small unburned quantities of it into the atmosphere can have deleterious effects. That said, natural gas burns much cleaner than coal, it’s abundantly available and relatively inexpensive, and, as the last couple of weeks showed, the world still needs cheap gas to fuel global economic growth (see To the Moon and Back). And, yes, as has been said many times, it’s a close-to-perfect “bridge fuel” to ease the transition from a hydrocarbon-driven world to one fueled more by wind, solar, hydrogen and other non-carbon energy sources. A lot of people say, well, maybe natural gas needs to remain a significant part of the energy mix in its current form and also, perhaps, as a feedstock for hydrogen production — at least until the Rolling Stones, U2, and maybe even the Red Hot Chili Peppers stop touring — but the least we can do in the interim is to minimize fugitive methane emissions or offset their potential global warming effect. That view has gained traction, not just among the environmentally minded slice of the general public but among many investors and lenders, as well as increasing numbers of energy-consuming companies and energy-producing ones. The ESG movement, which we discussed in depth in our five-part Paradise blog series, is already having a profound effect, with perhaps the biggest one being the push by companies of all stripes — including energy producers, midstreamers, refiners, and their many customers — to significantly reduce their GHG emissions by 2030 and aim for net-zero emissions by mid-century or so.
The Energy Information Administration expects US natural gas production to rise in 2021 and demand decline -The US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that natural gas production in the United States will rise in 2021 after falling last year due to the Corona virus destroying demand.The government agency added, in its monthly energy forecast report, that domestic gas demand will decline for the second consecutive year in 2021.And it expected that dry gas production will rise to 92.55 billion cubic feet per day in 2021 and to 96.41 billion cubic feet per day in 2022, from 91.49 billion cubic feet per day in 2020. This compares with an all-time high of 92.87 billion cubic feet per day in 2019.On the other hand, US gas futures rose today 8.5 cents, or 1.5%, to record at a settlement of $5.590 per million British thermal units, the highest closing since October 7.
US natural gas falls 4pc to 2-week low on mild weather, rising output - US natural gas futures fell 4pc to a two-week low on Monday on rising output and forecasts milder than normal weather will continue through late October. That mild weather will keep heating demand light and allow utilities to continue injecting more gas into storage than usual ahead of the winter. US utilities have already injected more gas into storage than usual over the past four weeks. Traders noted US gas futures were down even though gas prices in Europe were up about 5pc earlier in the day and US oil futures climbed to their highest since October 2014 on worries energy supplies could run short this winter. Last week, gas prices in Europe and Asia soared to record highs on worries Europe will not have enough gas in storage for the winter heating season and as Asia's demand for the fuel remains insatiable. Those worries boosted US gas prices to their highest since 2008 last week on expectations competition for gas from Europe and Asia would keep demand for US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. But there is a growing belief in the market that the United States will have more than enough gas for the winter after four weeks of bigger-than-usual storage builds and a lack of capacity to produce more LNG for export. Front-month gas futures fell 22.0 cents, or 4.0pc, to settle at $5.345 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Sept. 24. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average US gas demand, including exports, would rise from 84.9 bcfd this week to 86.1 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally cooler and more homes and businesses turn on their heaters. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv expected on Friday. With gas prices near $30 per mmBtu in Europe and $32 in Asia, versus under $6 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce. But no matter how high global prices rise, the United States only has capacity to turn about 10.5 bcfd of gas into LNG. Global markets will have to wait until later this year to get more from the United States when the sixth liquefaction train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass and Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana are expected to start producing LNG in test mode.
U.S. natgas gains 3% on cooler midday forecast, rising LNG feedgas (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained 3% on Tuesday after the midday forecast called for cooler weather and higher heating demand than expected earlier in the day. In addition, traders noted Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Maryland exited a three-week maintenance outage, which should boost the amount of gas LNG export plants consume. Demand for U.S. LNG remains high around the world. Gas prices in Europe, where the amount of gas in storage is extremely low going into the winter heating season, gained about 5% on Tuesday. Mild weather has allowed U.S. utilities to stockpile more gas than usual for four weeks in a row. Analysts expect utilities will keep adding large amounts of gas into storage in coming weeks with production mostly rising and the weather expected to remain warmer-than-normal through the end of October. Some traders, however, did note that output from Haynesville Shale was expected to decline on Tuesday. Looking ahead, analysts expect U.S. inventories will top 3.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls short of the 3.7 tcf five-year average. Elsewhere in the world, the situation is more dire. Many energy-intensive industries have already shut or limited operations in Europe and Asia because low stockpiles in Europe and strong demand in Asia have caused fuel shortages and boosted gas and oil prices to multi-year highs. In Europe, analysts say gas stockpiles are about 15% below normal for this time of year, raising fears there may not be enough fuel available to heat homes and businesses this winter if the weather is extremely cold. Front-month gas futures rose 16.0 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $5.505 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since Sept. 24.
Natural Gas Futures Stage Late Rally Despite Further Shrinking Expected in U.S. Storage Deficits - Traders struggled to put a fair price on natural gas futures Wednesday amid conflicting signals in the United States and overseas. After plunging to a $5.350/MMBtu intraday low, however, a cooler turn in the latest weather models lifted the November Nymex gas futures contract, which settled 8.5 cents higher day/day to $5.590. December climbed 9.0 cents to $5.753.Spot gas prices were a mixed bag amid some chilly weather on the West Coast and mild temperatures in most other regions. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 15.5 cents to $5.285.Volatility along the Nymex futures strip continued midweek, with a generally warm outlook in the United States portending a continuation of the stout storage injections experienced over the past month. After being poised to dip back into the red, prices strengthened late in the session as the midday run of the American model added demand to the long-range outlook. Prices subsequently soared to a $5.690 intraday high. After the midday runs trended chillier, adding some heating demand to the forecast, buyers stepped in and pushed the November contract higher. Bespoke noted that gas prices continued to climb post-settle after the European data set also shifted cooler. Though widespread cold has yet to show on U.S. weather maps, traders have been closely watching each run of the models. Bespoke said the coming pattern “is not exactly impressive, and this month remains on track to be one of, if not the warmest, October in our historical dataset. But, this is enough to push us to neutral, for now, as any additional demand adds overnight could easily send the market higher, even if it is not actually chilly anywhere.” Overall, light national demand is expected to continue in the near term as widespread highs of 60s to 80s rule most of the United States, according to NatGasWeather. There were some early season weather systems tracking through with rain and snow, the forecaster said, One system was exiting the Mountain West and tracking into the Midwest with highs of 30s to 50s.
-U.S. natgas up near 2% on lower than expected storage build (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained almost 2% on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build, lower output, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and higher global gas prices that will keep demand for those LNG exports strong. In addition, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said La Nina conditions have developed, which could mean a cold and wet winter for the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 81 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 8. That was much lower than the 94-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 50 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average increase of 79 bcf. Even though last week's storage build was smaller than expected, it was still bigger than usual for a fifth week in a row. Traders said the lower-than-expected storage build was due to low wind power generation last week, which caused power generators to burn more gas. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 3.369 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 4.9% below the five-year average of 3.543 tcf for this time of year. While utilities in Europe scramble to fill gas inventories before the winter heating season and governments around the world seek ways to control soaring prices, the situation in the United States is much calmer. Even with U.S. oil and gas prices near multi-year highs and expected to rise higher this winter, there is a growing belief in the market that the United States will have more than enough fuel for the winter. Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will top 3.5 tcf by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls short of the 3.7 tcf five-year average. In Europe, analysts say stockpiles are about 15% below normal for this time of year. Front-month gas futures rose 9.7 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $5.687 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That was the contract's highest close since Oct. 5 when it settled at $6.312, its highest since December 2008. U.S. GAS DEMAND Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Over the past few days, however, daily output fell to a four-week low of around 91.0 bcfd on lower production in the Haynesville shale. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 84.9 bcfd this week to 85.5 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally cooler and more homes and businesses turn on their heaters. With gas prices near $33 per mmBtu in Europe and Asia, versus around $6 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce. Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants had slipped from an average of 10.4 bcfd in September to 10.3 bcfd so far in October due to short-term work at some Gulf Coast plants and earlier maintenance at Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland. With the return of Cove Point on Tuesday, however, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a one-month high of 11.1 bcfd on Wednesday.
U.S. natgas falls near 5% on mild forecast, drop in global prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell almost 5% on Friday, following a 9% drop in global gas prices, on forecasts the weather in the United States will remain mostly mild through the end of October. That decline in U.S. prices came despite a slow but steady rise in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as utilities in Europe and Asia scramble to fill gas inventories before the winter heating season and forecasts for U.S. heating demand to increase in two weeks as the weather starts to cool. But no matter how high global prices rise, the United States was already close to producing LNG at full capacity. The storage situation in the United States, which is expected to have more than enough gas stockpiled for the winter, is much calmer. Even so, U.S. oil and gas prices have followed global prices higher in recent months and were currently trading at or near multi-year highs. Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will top 3.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls short of the 3.7 tcf five-year average. In Europe, analysts say stockpiles are about 15% below normal for this time of year. Front-month gas futures NGc1 fell 27.7 cents, or 4.9%, to settle at $5.410 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Oct. 11. For the week, the front-month fell almost 3%, putting it down for a second week in a row for the first time since August. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
Exports, Industrial Sector Seen Driving U.S. Natural Gas Demand This Winter - A growing industrial sector and record-high export activity are expected to be key drivers of increased U.S. natural gas demand this winter, according to a leading trade group. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are expected to grow by 16% over last winter, while pipeline exports to Mexico are expected to get an 18% boost, the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) said in its annual winter outlook released Thursday. Combined, the increases are expected to boost exports by 2.7 Bcf/d compared with last winter. Energy Venture Analysis (EVA), which prepared the report for NGSA, said LNG exports would remain a primary driver of domestic natural gas demand growth in this decade. The firm expects LNG feed gas deliveries to average 12.0 Bcf/d this winter, up 1.7 Bcf/d over last year. Industrial growth, meanwhile, is expected to grow by 1 Bcf/d this winter compared with last year as newbuild facilities and capacity expansions come online in natural gas-intensive sectors such as petrochemicals. According to the NGSA, 22 major gas-intensive projects are planned from 2021 to 2024. “The fundamentals in NGSA’s outlook show strong demand for natural gas at home and globally,” said NGSAA Chairman David Attwood, who is a vice president at ExxonMobil. Including exports, customer demand for U.S. natural gas is expected to increase to 111.9 Bcf/d compared with 110.9 Bcf/d last winter. However, the domestic market is predicted to shrink by 1.4 Bcf/d compared with last winter, driven by a decline in electric demand. NGSA expects the that market for natural gas will shrink by 2 Bcf due to “less temporary ‘economic switching’ to natural gas-fired power.” Meanwhile, weather is not expected to be a huge factor this year. The report’s authors predict this winter will be 1% colder than last year, meaning residential and commercial demand will likely stay the same. On the supply side, production is expected to grow by a modest 4%, reflecting an increased rig count and well completion rate. NGSA is predicting a 3.7 Bcf/d increase in natural gas production over last winter. Overall supply, which also takes into account storage and LNG and Canadian pipeline imports, is expected to average just over 99 Bcf/d this winter. NGSA is also predicting higher Henry Hub prices this winter compared with last year’s $3.09/MMBtu average. The trade group credited “a combination of strong economic growth, growing demand for natural gas, resurgent production, and decreased storage inventory,” for the forecast.
LNG Freight Rates Move Higher as Winter Nears in an Already Volatile Market - Friday kicked off the heating season across the Northern Hemisphere and liquefied natural gas (LNG) freight rates also started their annual ascent. This year could be different. Europe and Asia are locked in a fierce battle for cargoes as inventories remain low and prices have hit new records with benchmarks soaring above $30/MMBtu in both regions. After a lull in activity on the shipping market, things are heating up. Given the upside seen for LNG this winter, freight rates could double by the end of the month, according to some analysts. “As we see the fixing window move out into November, charterers are seeing freight for winter now being priced into these discussions,” shipbroker Fearnleys AS said in a note to clients. “There is also a lack of visibility on winter tonnage, adding to the firmer outlook.” In the run-up to this winter, the chartering market has been dominated by traders looking to lock in vessels for longer, according to shipbroker Braemar ACM. Charterers have aimed to cover their shipping length for the winter, keeping term rates strong and above spot freight levels. Rates spiked significantly last winter when Asian and European demand jumped amid colder-than-normal weather, forcing buyers to secure vessels at the last minute for higher prices. Vessels were tied up for longer stretches as they moved between the Atlantic and Pacific basins to meet the unexpected increase in demand. Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in its winter outlook that fears over a similar jump in rates this year have pushed term charter rates up 83% since March. Fearnleys said spot rates could move higher in the coming weeks as prompt sublet tonnage moves back into longer-term schedules and “interest for spot cargoes for late November/December mature.” Spark Commodities on Friday assessed spot freight rates for a 160,000 cubic meter LNG vessel in the Atlantic Basin at $64,000/day, up 17% from its previous assessment on Sept. 28. Spot rates in the Pacific Basin were up 12% over the same time to $70,500. The front month assessments were also up to $83,000/day in the Atlantic and $86,750 in the Pacific. Delays at the Panama Canal last winter also left fewer ships available to serve booming exports in the United States as global demand increased. The same could happen this year and ship-tracking data already shows U.S. exporters using a longer route around the Cape of Good Hope more often year-to-date to bypass the ongoing congestion as demand has remained strong. Both the sixth train at Sabine Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass LNG in Louisiana could begin commissioning before the year is over, further boosting U.S. exports and vessel demand in the Atlantic. For now, stable shipping rates have sweetened already lucrative LNG trades with prices booming. Shipowner Flex LNG Ltd. said in a recent presentation that a U.S. LNG cargo costs about $20 million at current rates, but is valued at $112 million in Europe and $128 million in Asia.
MidAmerican says soaring natural gas prices could raise winter heating bills -As temperatures begin to drop, MidAmerican Energy, Iowa's largest power provider, is warning thousands of residential natural gas customers their winter heating bills could jump 46% to 96% over last year's due to rising costs.Natural gas prices have more than doubled since this time last year because of reduced production and inventories and global demand, a news release from the Des Moines-based utility said Tuesday.The news affects MidAmerican Energy's 602,000 natural gas customers in Iowa. Geoff Greenwood, MidAmerican's spokesman, said it doesn't expect an increase in heating bills this winter for its 704,000 electric customers.The winter heating season typically runs from November through March. "People should brace themselves," said Stewart Glickman, energy equity analyst at CFRA Research, based in New York.Glickman said all types of heating fuels, including propane, will likely climb, although not at the pace of natural gas."On a percentage basis increase, natural gas is probably the worst case," he said.The COVID-19 pandemic probably had a role in the natural gas price increase, Glickman said. Companies stored less natural gas after the public health emergency shut down much of the country last year.Since then, though, the economy has picked up, both in the U.S. and globally, pushing energy prices higher, and the costs will trickle throughout the economy, from the gasoline pump to the grocery store, he said. "Those costs will get passed onto the customers," he said.
Gas heating bills could soar this winter in North Dakota - Montana-Dakota Utilities customers who use natural gas to heat their homes could end up paying on average $170 more than usual this winter due to rising natural gas prices, according to a projection from the company. Gas prices have increased globally in recent months, and the three members of the North Dakota Public Service Commission expect the trend will have a noticeable impact in the coming months on the heating bills of North Dakotans with gas furnaces. "Consumers need to prepare," Commissioner Brian Kroshus said. "It's going to potentially be a tough heating season." The U.S. Census Bureau estimates 40% of North Dakota homes have gas heat. MDU provides natural gas to about 115,000 customers in the state, including to homes in Bismarck and Mandan. North Dakota utilities such as MDU cannot profit on the cost of gas itself. They pass the price they pay for gas through to customers, and that cost is reflected on households' monthly statements in addition to a service charge and the volume of gas used. MDU says the gas supply has grown since 2020 but it has not met the demand, particularly from other countries seeking exports of liquefied natural gas from the United States. Drilling to bolster gas production has not kept pace with increased prices. That's playing out in natural gas-rich states such as Pennsylvania and Texas, and also in western North Dakota where gas is produced alongside oil in the Bakken. Oil prices are at a seven-year high, yet drilling is lagging for a number of reasons, including a shortage of frack crews, maintenance-related outages at processing plants and a focus by major producers on developing the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico.
Heating bills will jump as much as 54% because of natural gas prices -- With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter. Nearly half the homes in the U.S. use natural gas for heat, and they could pay an average $746 this winter, 30% more than a year ago. Those in the Midwest could get particularly pinched, with bills up an estimated 49%, and this could be the most expensive winter for natural-gas heated homes since 2008-09, according to the forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration The federal estimate issued Wednesday follows a forecast issued this week by the state's largest utility, We Energies. That analysis assumes "average" winter weather compared with the federal forecast which says the winter will be slightly colder than normal. That analysis done by We Energies "predicts the typical residential customer will pay $25 more a month this winter compared to last year," assuming an average winter weather. That would increase the typical residential customer's bill about 30% from $80 last winter to around $105. "This increase is mainly due to tight supplies as well as a worldwide increase in demand for natural gas," We Energies said in a statement that was released with its analysis. We Energies serves 1.1 million natural gas customers in Wisconsin. "This forecast matches what we sent out on Monday, that we expect the natural gas price spike will impact customer heating bills this winter," We Energies spokesman Brendan Conway said Wednesday. Wisconsin Public Service Corp., which along with We Energies is owned by WEC Energy Group, said the typical residential customer will pay $40 more a month this winter compared to last winter, assuming average weather conditions. m
Kansas natural gas utility nears deal to pass on $100M in cold snap costs to wholesale customers - Kansas’ largest natural gas utility is close to reaching a deal to recoup more than $100 million from large-scale customers that failed to provide enough natural gas during a February cold snap that forced power outages across the Midwest.During the worst of the cold snap, which saw average temperatures in Kansas City fall below 15 degrees for 10 days, natural gas prices shot up to record levels and utilities scrambled to keep customers’ heat on.In some cases, natural gas marketers, companies that use Kansas Gas Service’s distribution system to provide natural gas to wholesale or transportation customers, failed to get enough gas for their customers into the system, meaning KGS had to supply gas or risk running out for its residential customers.State regulations require that KGS assess penalties, but because of the extraordinary cost of natural gas — which rose by 200 times in a matter of days — KGS asked to waive some of those penalties. Late Friday, the utility company, customer advocates, several natural gas marketers and staff of the Kansas Corporation Commission filed a plan with Kansas regulators to assess $105 million in penalties to marketers, which they say reflects just the amount of gas those companies used.In a statement, KGS spokeswoman Dawn Tripp said the utility was “not seeking a windfall recovery” from the storm. The company is trying to recover its own costs without adversely affecting marketers.“With this settlement agreement, residential and commercial customers are not subsidizing transportation customers’ gas costs during Winter Storm Uri,” she said. KGS has requested to pass along about $451 million in excess natural gas and carrying costs from the deep freeze to its residential and small commercial customers over five, seven or 10 years, increasing the average residential customer’s bill by anywhere from about $5 to $11 per month.
The price of oil and gas is the highest since 2014. Here's how that may impact Louisiana - The price of crude oil closed above $80 a barrel Monday, the first time it has hit that mark since 2014. But the rising prices aren't having much of an impact on Louisiana's oil and gas industry.Drillers are still hesitant to spend money on new wells and worried that the price hikes are temporary. The offshore oil industry was stalled after the Biden Administration enacted a moratorium on new leases in January. But U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty of Lafayette issued a preliminary injunction this summer against the federal government, clearing the way for a lease sale to happen in November. There were 34 oil and gas wells on land in north Louisiana and nine offshore wells as of early October, according to a rig count by Baker Hughes, an oil industry service company. By comparison, there were 26 rigs on land and 12 offshore in October 2020. "There’s little evidence yet of upstream investment perking up from a 15-year low," according to a report by energy industry consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie. "The mood will change if prices remain at these higher levels well into 2022 and show signs of sustained recovery."Wood Mackenzie predicts that by 2022 the price of oil per barrel will drop down to $66, so the price spike is temporary. Jim Justiss, the owner of an independent oil and gas drilling company in Jena, is pulling the trigger on a few new oil wells. Justiss said he is somewhat nervous about a big uptick in the price of fuel over the winter because it could be too expensive for consumers and lead to a contraction in the economy."We plan on drilling more wells," said Justiss, CEO of Justiss Oil. "Things don't move as quickly as they once did because a lot of people went out of business or downsized."Justiss Oil shrank from 40 employees to 17 in the past few years as oil prices fell. "We were treading water at $40 a barrel," Justiss said. When prices hit $60 per barrel, the company starting laying out its plans for exploration. Even then, the business didn't get many calls for services or quotes on rigs. "But it seems to have picked up now at $80," he said. Louisiana has a long history of oil and gas drilling so it's a mature market. Higher prices means companies can take more risk and target smaller reservoirs. Service companies in Louisiana continue to file for bankruptcy and employment tied to the industry has remained down. Statewide, mining and logging had 30,000 jobs in August. Of that, 5,700 were tied to oil and gas extraction while the remainder was support businesses. That's up slightly from a record low of 28,100 workers in 2020, but a far cry from 37,200 jobs in August 2019.The last time oil prices hit $100 per barrel, in 2013, there were more than 55,000 oil and gas jobs in Louisiana. Companies are reaping higher profits from the price hikes but not investing back into the field.“It was one thing when the business was run by crazy wildcatters. Now the oil industry is run by MBAs,” Companies are leery right now of making the big investment in drilling new offshore wells, a process that can take as long as four years. “Everybody is secretly holding the line on production,” he said. Ironically, the run up in oil prices could lead to more investment in renewable energy, such as wind or solar power, and alternative fuels, such as nuclear energy. “Those start to look much better on a cost comparison when it all shakes out,”
'Forever Chemicals' raising questions about fracking -The oil and natural gas industry is one of the leading industries in Louisiana in terms of economic impact, taxes paid and people employed. But there is some new information about certain chemicals being used in the fracking process that has some concerned. Most have probably heard of Teflon and Scotch Guard; some even have some waterproof rain gear in their closet. Those products and more are known to have a manmade chemical compound known as PFAS or what's called "forever chemicals." But what many may not know is these chemicals are being used in the fracking process. "We just learned that these are being used recently," said John Pardue, LSU environmental engineering department director. "We don't really have standards written for how much we should allow. We don't have any regulations requiring companies to disclose what they are using or regulations for them to be responsible for cleaning it up many years into the future," said Pardue. Caddo Parish District 12 map on car hood A map of District 12 in Caddo Parish sits on a car hood as residents of Twilight Meadows subdivision talk in the background. So, how powerful are these chemicals? According to a paper by Physicians for Social Responsibility, 8 ounces could contaminate 8 billion gallons of water. So, if a 16- ounce bottle and a half of another one filled with those chemicals leaked into Cross Lake it would contaminate the entire lake. There are scores of fracking operations in North Louisiana. In Caddo Parish Commission District 12 there are close to 10 oil and gas operations that Commissioner Ken Epperson has identified on a map. One is just across the street from the Twilight Meadows subdivision in west Shreveport. Pinewave Energy of Fort Worth runs it. "The chemicals they put down in the ground, we have people on my particular street that use their well water," said Glenn Moore, a resident of the Western Hills subdivision in west Shreveport."I'm on my own well here. The city of Greenwood has water, but when you start talking about if something was to happen. That's what we have to have more information on," said David Cox, a Greenwood resident.
Fracking noise irritating Caddo residents - The search for oil and gas is ever present in the state of Louisiana. In parts of Caddo Parish that search, and the unwanted side effects that go along with drilling and fracking, are becoming more common for some neighborhoods. "I've had to wear earmuffs inside of my house, in my bed to just get a little quiet time," said Pat Sepulvado, a Twilight Meadows subdivision resident who lives off of Jefferson Paige Road in west Shreveport. "When you go to people for help, all they want to tell you is about the rights of the oil companies. What about our rights as citizens and people living in the neighborhood? We have rights too," said Sepulvado. "The gas drilling has increased significantly. ... I've received so many complaints from a number of my citizens," said Ken Epperson, Caddo Commission District 12 commissioner. There are close to 10 drilling sites just in his district that he knows of right now. "At 11 o'clock at night people are sleeping, and from 11 to 4 every other hour it would kick off for like five days in a row," said Cox. This area has seen a lot of drilling in the more rural areas in recent years, because of the Haynesville shale. But much of what is happening in Caddo Parish would hardly be considered rural. For example, a drilling site that started in April of this year was directly across the street from the Twilight Meadows subdivision. "Since they want to come into a populated area now where people are residing, I don't think it's fair that we don't have a say-so in what goes on in our community," said Glenn Moore, a Western Hills subdivision resident. The say-so comes from Baton Rouge. While the Legislature and federal government create the laws and standards, the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources is charged with regulation. "We have had to breathe dust for four months," said Sepulvado. "If it causes your house to vibrate, that's an issue," said Moore. Making it worse, many feel powerless and helpless to get answers. "I called Pinewave Energy and told them the dust was affecting my eyes. I went to a commissioner meeting to complain. I've called the city," said Sepulvado.
Plastic production is a fossil fuel problem -Cancer Alley snakes 85 miles along both banks of the Mississippi, forming a patchwork of sugarcane plantations and petrochemical complexes, the former with a legacy of slavery and soil degradation and the latter with a legacy of spills, explosions, and widespread pollution. As industry has closed in, breathing room has been hard to come by. Many people who live on the industrial fenceline are fearful for their lives. At one fenceline, in Welcome, St. James Parish, Louisiana, I met Sharon Lavigne, who recently won a Goldman Environmental Prize for her environmental justice activism. Lavigne founded a Christian faith–based activist organization, called RISE St. James, in 2018 to stand against a $1.25 billion plastic plant proposed by Chinese chemical company Wanhua. RISE spoke out. The plant was never constructed. Most recently, Lavigne has spoken out against the planned construction of a $9.4 billion plastic and petrochemical complex in Welcome, a predominantly African American community. So far, she and RISE have succeeded in staving off the completion of this latest industrial development—owned by FG LA LLC, a company related to major Taiwanese manufacturing conglomerate Formosa Plastics—to buy up land in St. James Parish, through an assortment of justice-seeking community actions and other campaigns. Formosa Plastics is the world’s fourth-largest producer of petrochemicals and plastic. Earlier this year, United Nations human rights experts called for an end to racism in Cancer Alley, a place where communities of color bear disproportionate risk to industrial hazards. This month, a new report on Formosa Plastics runs through the company’s messy environmental, economic, and legal track records. One of experts’ top recommendations: rescind Formosa’s permits in St. James, Louisiana; get the company out. Some may believe that, in a region already replete with chemicals, stopping Formosa—one plastic plant—would provide only trivial benefits to public health. In reality, such a victory would not only spare the residents of St. James from additional exposure to pollutants but would also be a win in the fight against climate change—another massive crisis we are now facing. Scientists agree we must now wean ourselves off substances that contribute to climate change when extracted, processed, and burned—namely, oil shales, bitumens, tar sands, coal, petroleum, natural gas, and heavy oils—and we must stop continued industrial development.
Shale Oil Production Back Near Pre-Pandemic Levels in U.S. Permian Region - Oil prices above $80 a barrel are once again spurring a revival of shale drilling in America’s biggest oil field, where production is expected to return to pre-pandemic highs within weeks. Only this time, the surge is being driven by private operators, rather than the publicly traded companies that fueled the previous booms. And they see little reason to slow things down.
First Fully Automated Land Rig Drills First Well - Nabors Industries has announced that the world’s first fully automated land drilling rig has reached total depth on its first well, which was for ExxonMobil in the Permian basin.XTO Energy, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil, contracted the rig to drill three horizontal wells on a test pad in Midland County, Texas, as part of its own research and development efforts and commitment to safe, efficient and responsible operations, Nabors highlighted. The first well was drilled to a total measured depth of 19,917 feet, Nabors revealed, adding that the companies do not plan to publish performance data and results.Dubbed PACE®-R801, the rig combines Nabors proprietary Smart Suite of automated drilling software with Canrig® robotics, Nabors outlined. The crew size on the PACE®-R801 is said to be similar to other Nabors rigs, albeit with changed duties. One driller is required to supervise the operations of the rig while others continue to perform essential tasks, such as service, maintenance, inspections and rig moves, Nabors highlighted. The asset has an unmanned rig floor that removes crews from red zone areas and delivers consistent, predictable drilling performance, the company noted.A video of the PACE®-R801 rig in operation can be seen below.“There’s nothing else in the world like the PACE-R801 concept rig,” Anthony Petrello, the chairman, president and chief executive officer of Nabors, said in a company statement.“Its combination of advanced automation, digitalization and robotics represents a trifecta solution for an industry pursuing the highest levels of safety, efficiency and environmental performance in order to attain ESG goals. Thank you to all our employees, partners and stakeholders that helped make this a reality,” he added.“Successfully drilling with the world’s first fully automated land drilling rig marks the culmination of a five-year engineering journey for Nabors. The experience and insights gained from this concept rig will be used to forge the next generation of Nabors technology and to continuously improve the digital, automation and robotics solutions we already have in the field,”
Have truck, will haggle. Unlikely pipeline foe takes on FERC - — The bane of the pipeline industry is hurtling down the interstate at 81 mph behind the wheel of a black Ford Super Duty pickup, haggling over his smartphone with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Meet Nate Laps, a former gas industry land agent who switched sides and now fights for landowners. He may well change how FERC and pipeline builders treat the people who live in the path of major energy projects. Laps, 38, is brawling with two multibillion-dollar natural gas companies — Cheniere Energy Inc. and Spire Inc. — along with FERC itself. Laps has bird-dogged Cheniere’s Midship pipeline through Oklahoma and Spire’s STL pipeline near St. Louis for years on behalf of his landowner clients. It’s no coincidence that both projects are in trouble with FERC for their treatment of landowners. He’s not a lawyer; he doesn’t have a college degree. He confronts the law firms and senior bureaucrats of the FERC pipeline world with a smash-mouth zeal. Sometimes he’s a happy warrior, chuckling over a tactical win. Other times he’s an avenger, brimming with outrage. "They condemn land for pennies on the dollar," he says. "And after they destroy the land, they try to walk away." He bounces his Ford from farm to farm along the pipeline routes with a drone in the flatbed, documenting damage he says inspectors missed and companies tried to conceal. On a recent Saturday, he put 1,000 miles on the Ford F-250. He’s inundated FERC with the drone photos, attached to sharply worded complaints on the letterhead of his three-person company, Central Land Consulting. He skips legalese in favor of words like "fraudulent" and "collusion." He’s even driven equipment out at night under floodlights to dig up debris buried by construction crews next to pipes. And he’s pressing FERC to shut down the pipelines until the companies fix his clients’ land. FERC hasn’t. The pipelines are still pumping gas. But Laps’ efforts appear to be changing how the agency treats landowners, said Carolyn Elefant, a former FERC lawyer who has been working with Laps on Spire and Midship. FERC issued two orders in March that "lit a fire" under the two companies, she said, and it wouldn’t have happened without Laps’ relentless documenting of the damage.
Chevron’s climate plan: Use wind and solar power to drill for oil - Earlier this year, Chevron faced a reckoning when 61 percent of the company’s shareholders backed a nonbinding resolution asking it to cut its emissions. The oil and gas giant had previously announced goals to make its operations less carbon-intensive, but at its annual general meeting in May, shareholders effectively crossed their arms and shook their heads, demanding that the company cut emissions from the use of its products, too. But even after the majority shareholder vote, Chevron is barely budging. On Monday, Chevron announced a new “aspiration” to reduce emissions from its upstream operations to net-zero by 2050, along with a separate target of reducing the carbon intensity of its products by 5 percent by 2028. That mouthful of words means the company plans to keep producing just as much oil as it always has, if not more, but emit less carbon per barrel. Activist shareholders were not impressed with the update. Shareholders voted for Chevron to reduce its so-called “scope 3 emissions,” the carbon released when customers burn its oil and gas in their cars and homes, which makes up about 90 percent of the company’s carbon footprint. The only way for Chevron to meaningfully reduce its scope 3 emissions would be to shift its business to produce different products that don’t emit carbon. Instead, the company is mostly doubling down on oil and gas, but committing to making its production processes cleaner, starting with its “upstream operations” — the industry term for activities associated with exploration and extraction. Chevron’s upstream operations include drilling for oil and natural gas, pumping it out, transporting it via pipeline, and in some cases, converting natural gas into a liquid. Most of the company’s upstream greenhouse gas emissions come from powering heavy machinery or from “flaring,” the practice of burning off excess gases that rise up out of wells. Ironically, Chevron plans to reduce upstream emissions in part by electrifying equipment and powering it with solar and wind farms. Instead of supporting an economy-wide transition to renewable electricity, which would lower emissions in an absolute sense, the plan aims to exploit renewables to produce more fossil fuels, potentially holding total emissions at a steady level. Chevron also plans to incorporate more carbon capture and storage technology into its operations, but the company has a poor track record on that front. Chevron’s Gorgon gas processing plant in Western Australia, which was supposed to be the largest carbon capture and storage project in the world, has so far failed to capture as much carbon as promised. And at the end of the day, none of these plans will make any difference for the climate if Chevron is still producing just as much oil and gas in 2050. Andrew Logan, director of oil and gas programs at Ceres, an investor advocacy group, said in a statement that the commitment was behind the times. “Net zero operational emissions targets are simply table stakes at this point — and a number of Chevron’s U.S. peers like ConocoPhillips made such a commitment some time ago,” he said.
Private Equity Funds Have Invested Billions In Fossil Fuels Since 2010 - These secretive investment companies have pumped billions of dollars into fossil fuel projects, buying up offshore platforms, building new pipelines and extending lifelines to coal power plants.As the oil and gas industry faces upheaval amid global price gyrations and catastrophic climate change, private equity firms — a class of investors with a hyper focus on maximizing profits — have stepped into the fray.Since 2010, the private equity industry has invested at least $1.1 trillion into the energy sector — double the combined market value of three of the world’s largest energy companies, Exxon, Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell — according to new research. The overwhelming majority of those investments was in fossil fuels, according to data from Pitchbook, a company that tracks investment, and a new analysis by the Private Equity Stakeholder Project, a nonprofit that pushes for more disclosure about private equity deals.Only about 12 percent of investment in the energy sector by private equity firms went into renewable power, like solar or wind, since 2010, though those investments have grown at a faster rate, according to Pitchbook data.Private equity investors are taking advantage of an oil industry facing heat from environmental groups, courts, and even their own shareholders to start shifting away from fossil fuels, the major force behind climate change. As a result, many oil companies have begun shedding some of their dirtiest assets, which have oftenended up in the hands of private equity-backed firms.By bottom-fishing for bargain prices — looking to pick up riskier, less desirable assets on the cheap — the buyers are keeping some of the most polluting wells, coal-burning plants and other inefficient properties in operation. That keeps greenhouse gases pumping into the atmosphere.At the same time banks, facing their own pressure to cut back on fossil fuel investments, have started to pull back from financing the industry, elevating the role of private equity.The fossil fuel investments have come at a time when climate experts, as well as the world’s most influential energy organization, the International Energy Agency, say that nations need to more aggressively move away from burning fossil fuels, said Alyssa Giachino of the Private Equity Stakeholder Project.“You see oil majors feeling the heat,” she said. “But private equity is quietly picking up the dregs, perpetuating operations of the least desirable assets.”In its report, the Private Equity Stakeholder Project examined the energy investments made by the top 10 private equity firms since 2010, including giants Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle. The report found that about 80 percent of current holdings are in oil, gas and coal. That was despite many of those firms touting their sustainable investments.Private equity firms have emerged as an increasingly powerful, yet secretive, investment force in recent decades. They typically assemble vast pools of money from wealthy or institutional investors in order to invest directly in companies, often those in distress and unable to raise capital in more traditional ways. Because the firms are required to disclose relatively limited information, it can be difficult to get a full view of their holdings or their climate or environmental practices.
Gretchen Whitmer’s Border War – WSJ --The Democratic Party’s hostility to oil and gas pipelines is now becoming an international problem, as Canada seeks a Biden Administration intervention over Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s attempt to shut down Enbridge Energy’s Line 5. Ottawa last week formally invoked the dispute-resolution article of a 1977 treaty governing transit pipelines between the two nations. The treaty states that, except in an emergency, natural disaster or pressing safety concern, “no public authority in the territory of either” the U.S. or Canada may take measures “which are intended to, or which would have the effect of, impeding, diverting, redirecting or interfering with in any way the transmission of hydrocarbon in transit.” Yet Ms. Whitmer is acting like she’s her own sovereign nation. She moved last year to revoke and terminate an easement that allows Line 5 to operate in a 4.5-mile stretch in the Straits of Mackinac and ordered Enbridge to shut down and “permanently decommission” the pipeline within 180 days. Enbridge has defied Ms. Whitmer and continued operations, saying her unilateral actions lack legal authority. The Governor is seeking an injunction to close the pipeline.If Ms. Whitmer prevails, she’ll disrupt a major energy supply chain that moves more than half a million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids a day throughout the Great Lakes region. In an amicus brief filed in federal court in May, Canada said residents of Quebec and Ontario rely on Line 5 to fuel their cars and heat their homes. The Toronto Pearson International Airport depends on it for jet fuel. Line 5 is a critical supplier for the Sarnia-Lambton Petrochemical and Refining Complex in Ontario, which employs more than 4,900 people. If the pipeline shuts down, “up to 400,000 barrels per day of oil originating from western Canada (much of it destined for the United States)” would be stranded, the Canadian government said. “The shutdown would cause massive revenue losses and potentially significant job losses in the energy sector in western Canada, just as it is struggling to recover from the impacts of covid-19,” Canada warned. “Thus, the economic impacts of a shutdown would be immediate and severe both for fuel users in the east and for producers in the west.” Ms. Whitmer said in a statement that she is “profoundly disappointed” in Canada’s invocation of the treaty. “Rather than taking steps to diversify energy supply and ensure resilience, Canada has channeled its efforts into defending an oil company with an abysmal environmental track record,” she said. Canada is seeking a bilateral negotiation, but if that fails the dispute could end up in arbitration. In an email Thursday, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said “we expect that both the U.S. and Canada will engage constructively in those negotiations,” adding that “in addition to being one of our closest allies, Canada remains a key U.S. partner in energy trade as well as efforts to address climate change and protect the environment.”
Michigan tribes to Biden: Enbridge Line 5 threatens our treaty rights - As Canada leans on an international treaty to keep oil flowing through Line 5, Michigan Native American tribal leaders want the Biden administration to acknowledge that the pipeline’s fate affects their treaty rights, too.In a press conference Tuesday, Bay Mills Indian Community President Whitney Gravelle called upon the Biden administration to make “a serious commitment” to uphold the rights of Michigan tribes as the federal government faces increasingly complex diplomatic issues regarding Line 5.Gravelle’s comments come a week after Canadainvoked a 1977 treaty governing cross-border pipelines in an attempt to block Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s efforts to shut down Line 5, which runs beneath the Straits of Mackinac. Canada argues that the treaty, part of which says that “no public authority” in either the U.S. or Canada can impede the flow of petroleum products through international pipelines, leaves Whitmer powerless to shut down Line 5.Lawyers for the state of Michigan dispute that interpretation, and a University of Michigan legal expert earlier told Bridge Michigan that other language in the 1977 treaty gives Michigan the power to regulate the pipeline.Calling efforts to keep Line 5 open a “direct attack on our sovereignty,” Gravelle argued at a virtual press conference Tuesday that “tribal nations’ treaty rights in this area predate and supersede any of Enbridge’s interests, including any rights the government of Canada or Enbridge may claim.”The Straits and much of Michigan’s landmass are protected by the 1836 Treaty of Washington, in which tribes ceded millions of acres to the U.S. government in exchange for permanent rights to hunt, fish and gather, among other rights. Michigan tribes have argued an oil spill from Line 5 could decimate fish populations, rendering their protected fishing rights meaningless.Enbridge is suing the state in hopes of keeping the pipeline open in response to Whitmer’s shutdown order. In a statement Tuesday, Enbridge spokesman Ryan Duffy said that Enbridge supports the tribes’ treaty rights, but declined to elaborate on whether those rights are germane to the Line 5 dispute.“We support the federal government upholding treaty rights,” Duffy said. “We support the restoration of treaty rights as well as the acknowledgment of historical reservation boundaries.”
The Mackinac Straits Corridor Authority discusses Enbridge Line 5 Pipeline Tunnel - Today, the Mackinac Straits Corridor Authority met with consultants and Michigan residents to consider the Enbridge Line 5 Pipeline Tunnel. If approved, the tunnel will enclose a replacement petroleum pipeline running through the Straits of Mackinac. The authority discussed a proposed tribal consultation policy, responded to a request for an internal investigation and touched on their achieved project milestones. M.S.C.A. and Enbridge officials are pushing forward even though some residents are disappointed with the project. “You cannot dispute these failures and faults in your whole plan,” John Paul, a Michigan resident opposed to the Line 5 Pipeline Tunnel, said. “Educate yourself to the whole story. Minnesota’s being polluted right this very moment, yet they’ll sit there and lie to you about how they’re going to produce documents. You can burn your documents. Actions speak, words lie. Paul is one of many Michigan residents who are unhappy with Enbridge’s plan. One attendee questioned Enbridge’s validity in light of recent misconduct claims. “You have a partner in Enbridge that I don’t think you can trust, and that you need to consider changing the paradigm,” Pat Egan, another Michigan resident unhappy with the Line 5 Tunnel project, said. “They were just fined $3.3 million in a project that they perverted in Northern Minnesota.”
Pipeline companies agree to $8.7 mln deal to settle spill claims -- Buckeye Pipe Line Co and West Shore Pipeline Co have agreed to pay nearly $9 million to settle allegations they violated the Oil Pollution Act and the Clean Water Act in connection with a 2010 oil spill near the city. The companies and state and federal officials on Wednesday agreed to a proposed consent decree in Chicago federal court to resolve claims arising from the December 2010 spill of more than 1,800 barrels of oil into wetlands near Lockport, a suburb of Chicago. The companies were accused of allowing injury to the Hine's emerald dragonfly, an endangered species, among other claims. Houston-based Buckeye and Lemont, Illinois-based West Shore do not admit to the allegations. The agreement is subject to final court approval.Line 257, a 3.5-mile crude-oil pipeline owned by West Shore and operated by Buckeye, leaked oil from an underground breach as it was being pumped from a terminal to a refinery, according to a complaint the Justice Department and the Illinois attorney general filed along with the consent decree.The spill resulted in the loss of more than 100 acres of wetland, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said in a statement.A Buckeye spokesperson said the company is pleased to have reached an agreement and "continues to work with the proper agencies and parties to ensure the ongoing ecological restoration of the affected site." Buckeye is represented by Gary Rovner of Foley & Lardner. West Shore did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Larry Starfield, an acting assistant administrator with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said the settlement "marks the culmination of a 10-year project to clean up the spill and prepare the site for restoration activities."
Line 3 did something rare for a pipeline that exports Canadian crude: It got built | CBC News -A phenomenon recently unfolded that represents a rarity in this era of vocal opposition to Canadian fossil-fuel projects.A major pipeline project exporting oil from Canada was just completed and it began operating with relatively little national attention.The Line 3 project attracted much less scrutiny than Keystone XL from American protesters, media and politicians.It didn't even appear to be the top pipeline story in Canada last week — that distinction likely belonged to Line 5, which is escalating as a political irritant between Canada and the U.S.Yet Line 3 was up and running on Oct. 1, adding 370,000 barrels per day in new exports from Alberta to Wisconsin, which is more than half the output the scrapped Keystone XL project was supposed to achieve.As a result, Canadian oil exports to the United States just reached one of their highest-ever weekly volumes, according to the latest U.S. numbers.However, the process of getting the pipeline built through Minnesota illustrated the risks of completing such a project in this era. The project's legacyIts legacy includes an environmental disaster, a controversial arrangement with police, and legal fights and protests that are ongoing. So was it a game-changer — either for Alberta's oil sector or for the climate?An energy economist at the University of Alberta doubts it will have a significant impact on either oilsands investment or on greenhouse gas emissions.Andrew Leach has a new paper out in the Alberta Law Review that suggests we're unlikely to see any brand new oil export pipelines ever built from Canada. This particular project by Alberta-based Enbridge involved changes to a line built in 1968 that had seen its capacity erode over time. The renovation restored that original capacity, installed a slightly wider pipe and altered parts of the route. Leach said the project is unlikely to prompt a flood of new investment in Alberta.
Enbridge, Columbus, and the last tar sands pipeline - By Winona LaDuke - It's somehow fitting irony as Indigenous Day approaches on Oct. 11 — once known by another name — that a new Columbus is about to pump oil through Line 3, the last tar sands pipeline. That is the colonial-like corporation Enbridge.Maybe President Joe Biden will think about this one and stop the dirty oil from burning our rivers and air. The Indian wars could be over. After all, no one needs this pipeline, plus it's the dirtiest and most expensive oil in the world to extract and produce. In one narrative, the Canadian corporation won. Columbus conquered anew, proof that might and money remain the rulers. Then, there's another. That's the Ballad of the Water Protectors — a movement born in the battles in northern Minnesota and North Dakota, a movement that will grow and transform the economy of the future. How do we know this?Well, no one wants to finance more tar sands. Other telling signs, and some new red flags, include:The Canadian oil industry estimated that a lack of pipeline capacity reduced the industry's income by tens of billions of dollars before the pandemic started. The tar sands industry couldn't afford to approve and build new extraction facilities during the curtailment, and now, in part due to the pandemic, it still can't.Uncertainty about Line 3 caused by Indigenous people and water protectors encouraged massive divestment from the tar sands by non-Canadian investors. Everybody from Shell Oil to the Koch brothers bailed out. Last month, my alma mater, Harvard University, began divestment of fossil fuels. Harvard wouldn't even divest from South Africa, those stubborn old dudes. This is, well, monumental.A recent joint report by the Indigenous Environmental Network and Oil Change International, found that Indigenous resistance alone has stopped or delayed greenhouse gas pollution equivalent to at least 25% of annual U.S. and Canadian emissions.As a result of low oil prices, reduced income and divestment, tar sands industry capital expenditures crashed. Almost all its capital spending over the past five years was used for maintenance of existing extraction facilities, not development of new facilities. Put another way, the pipeline opposition campaign stopped the tar sands industry dead in its tracks.We all just recently learned two more blatant things about Enbridge that should give everyone pause — especially our government leaders like Gov. Tim Walz and U.S. Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, whose cowardly silence makes them complicit in this egregious crime.First, after piercing an aquifer in January — an aquifer that is still bleeding 100,000 gallons of water a day — Enbridge covered it up for as long as it could until it was caught and fined $3.3 million by the Department of Natural Resources. This is the kind of people we are dealing with.We also learned the pipeline isn't even adequately insured. The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission required Enbridge to obtain $200 million of "environmental impairment liability" insurance, in addition to general corporate liability coverage of $900 million, and to include the state of Minnesota and several American Indian tribes as additional insureds on its policies. But Enbridge recently submitted a report to the Public Utilities Commission saying it will likely not be able to obtain this insurance "in the near future." This new investigation is likely to expose again into the future what a truly rotten idea the escrow account established by Enbridge and the PUC to militarize the north in the name of defending Line 3 really was. Did we learn something from our whippings?Approaching this day for uplifting Indigenous peoples, here's a suggestion. It's time to end conquest and begin survival. Code Red for the environment means that we need to move away from fossil fuels and to organic agriculture, and to local and efficient energy. Fortunately, tribal nations are leading the way in the north. It's time to quit acting like Columbus.
How the Line 3 Fight Will Continue Against the Completed Pipeline - In September, Enbridge, the Canadian company behind the contested Line 3 project spanning northern Minnesota, announced that tar sands oil would start moving through the pipeline by October 1. However, the Indigenous-led resistance that has fought the pipeline since it was proposed seven years ago doesn’t intend to stop now.On the same day that oil was slated to start moving, Jaike Spotted Wolf joined other Indigenous leaders like Winona LaDuke and Tara Houska on a Zoom call with attorney general Keith Ellison to talk pipeline issues. Photographer Ron Turney presented pictures of cyst-spotted fish to Ellison, which he discovered recently near a pipeline construction site where drilling fluid spilled this summer. Though nontoxic, the fine particles in drilling fluid can negatively impact aquatic life and Enbridge inadvertently released the stuff into wetlands 13 times this summer.Spotted Wolf is a member of the Three Affiliated Tribes (Mandan, Hidatsa, Sahnish) of North Dakota and a leader at Camp Migizi, one of the Indigenous-led resistance camps that cropped up when pipeline construction started. Since January, protestors who call themselves water protectors have traveled there to organize protests, live communally, and learn about decolonization. “The Line 3 fight is very much ingrained in climate protection, but is also about Indigenous sovereignty,” says Spotted Wolf.Camp Migizi was established on nine wooded acres within the Fond du Lac reservation, right next to a Line 3 construction site. During the summer, flood lights and heavy machinery operated through the night, a continual reminder to those sleeping in tents scattered around the property. “It was just constantly get up and go fight the pipeline,” says Spotted Wolf, who arrived in May. The pipeline replaces Enbridge’s old eroding Line 3, built in the 1950s and infamous for spilling 1.7 million gallons of crude oil near Grand Rapids in 1991. The new pipeline will have twice the operating capacity, upping the flow to 760,000 barrels carried from Alberta, Canada to Superior, Wisconsin and across treaty lands every day.Some projections estimate the pipeline will produce more greenhouse gases annually than Minnesota's total emissions across every sector. Like other nearby tribal nations, the Fond du Lac Band opposed Enbridge's pipeline replacement proposal. Eventually, Minnesota’s Public Utilities Commission presented Fond du Lac with the choice between having the old Line 3 removed from the reservation and the replacement laid in its place or for the replacement pipeline to run just south of the reservation in treaty territory where tribal members hunt, fish and gather. "All remaining options threaten the environment for all and livelihood of the Indigenous people of Minnesota," said tribal council Chair Kevin Dupuis Sr. at the time.
As Tar Sands Flow Through Line 3, Water Protectors Fight Trumped-Up Felonies -- After nearly seven years of resistance from Indigenous communities and allied climate activists, Canadian tar sands began flowing through Alberta-based Enbridge Energy’s Line 3 pipeline this month. Native Anishinaabe leaders have nevertheless vowed to continue their struggle against the pipeline, a 1,097-mile, 36-inch diameter expansion and replacement to a 1960s-era line now bringing nearly 1 million barrels of tar sands per day from Edmonton, Canada, to Superior, Wisconsin.The fight is shifting to Washington, D.C., this week as Indigenous communities and climate activists escalate pressure on the Biden administration to declare a climate emergency, stop all new fossil fuel projects, and crack down on existing production and extraction, including Line 3 and the Dakota Access Pipeline, during the “People vs. Fossil Fuels” mobilization. More than 500 Indigenous leaders and climate activists marched from Freedom Plaza to the White House on Monday, where at least 135 were arrested and blasted with sound weaponry after sitting-in at the White House fence.On Tuesday, Native leaders delivered nearly 1 million petitions to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers North Atlantic Division Office demanding Line 3 receive a full Environmental Impact Statement. Two Water Protectors climbed a flagpole outside the office and replaced its U.S. flag with a flag reading, “Consultation is not consent.” Native leaders willcontinue to risk arrest in D.C. throughout the week to call out President Joe Biden’s failure to stop the pipeline and respect Indigenous treaty rights.But one Water Protector from Minnesota who planned on attending this week’s events in D.C. is being forced to stay behind: Scout is one of more than 80 people facing at least 90 felony-level charges, with all but one stemming from protests against the pipeline over the course of the summer, according to the Line 3 legal support collective Pipeline Legal Action Network (PLAN). Scout, who asked to be identified with a pseudonym because of the legally sensitive nature of his case, is forbidden from traveling across state lines under the conditions of his release from a Northern Minnesota jail in June.Scout told Truthout that his charges may escalate even further, as the prosecuting attorney may seek to up his charge from felony second-degree assault to three charges of felony first-degree assault. The current second-degree charge stems from an alleged incident in July in which Scout allegedly drove through an Enbridge work site while scouting for drilling fluid spills called “frac outs” and sites where the company was actively drilling underneath water bodies. There at the work site, on a small dirt road, he says three Enbridge employees are alleging he swerved at them from behind the wheel of his SUV as they sat in two separate trucks. This, Scout says, simply never happened. About 20 minutes later, after he allegedly left the work site, he was pulled over by a sheriff’s deputy, who took down his driver’s license and insurance information but soon let him go.
Indigenous climate activists demand Biden end fossil fuel projects - The Washington Post - Casey Camp-Horinek, a tribal elder from White Eagle, Okla., and environmental ambassador for the Ponca Nation, marched in the front of a crowd of hundreds headed toward the White House on Monday and held up her fist.The 73-year-old — wearing a hat that said “Pipeline Fighter” — was among the leaders and members of Native American tribes from across the country who came to Washington for five days of protests that began Monday.The rallies are part of People vs. Fossil Fuels demonstrations by a coalition of groups known as Build Back Fossil Free, which is demanding that the Biden administration take more extreme actions to curb carbon-producing fossil fuel projects at a time when scientists say the world needs to sharply cut greenhouse gas emissions. The coalition’s name is a nod to President Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda.“We are going to put our bodies on the line there. If we have to be arrested in order to call attention to what the crisis is and that we need a climate emergency declared, we’ll do that,” Camp-Horinek said. “There’s been 500 years of people coming into a territory where all things were interdependent and functioning to a time of crisis, where even Biden’s great-grandchildren won’t survive if something doesn’t change.”At times, tensions rose between protesters and police outside the White House, but the demonstration was largely peaceful. People sang, danced and prayed, holding signs that said, “Water is alive,” alongside cardboard cutouts of fish and birds on Pennsylvania Avenue.U.S. Park Police warned the demonstrators three times that they would risk being arrested if they did not disperse. Most of them moved into Lafayette Square, but about 156 remained, Sgt. Roselyn Norment, a U.S. Park Police spokesperson, said in a statement. Police escorted those protesters to a nearby tent. They were issued citations for obstructing traffic and then released, Norment wrote.
Line 3 opponents deliver letter to White House - A group of Indigenous and environmental organizations based in Minnesota and nationwide delivered a letter to the White House Tuesday urging President Joe Biden to take action on Enbridge’s Line 3 oil pipeline.The 337-mile Line 3 pipeline began carrying oil on Oct. 1. The letter from pipeline opponents comes the day after more than 100 people received citations for blocking traffic during a rally outside the White House as part of the weeklong “People vs. Fossil Fuels” campaign.Local letter signers include Honor the Earth, MN350, TakeAction Minnesota and CAIR-Minnesota. Cleaning product company Seventh Generation, Earthjustice and Indigenous Environmental Network also signed on.“You have declared a code red climate emergency, stating that ‘the nation and the world are in peril.’ We agree,” the letter to Biden says. “It is past time to act in accordance with your declaration.”Pipeline opponents are pushing for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers — which issued a key permit for the project — to conduct its own environmental review, and to halt operation of the pipeline in the meantime.Opponents say the federal agency didn’t adequately consider the potential effects of leaks and the project’s effects on climate change; the U.S. Army Corps has argued its approval was the product of a yearslong process that met all review requirements.
Indigenous Leaders Among the 136 Arrested at White House Fossil Fuel Protest - On October 11, Indigenous People’s Day, 136 people, including many Indigenous leaders opposing fossil fuel projects, were arrested in front of the White House in Washington, D.C., while calling on President Biden to declare a climate emergency and to stop approving fossil fuel projects. The day marked the first in a five-day-long series of protests in the nation’s capitol organized by the Build Back Fossil Free coalition, which is made up of numerous environmental and social justice advocacy groups. Over the course of five days, thousands are expected to bring the message to Biden’s door that he must do more to protect the planet, and many demonstrators are coming prepared to participate in acts of civil disobedience, to make sure the President hears their message before next month’s COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland. These demonstrations, labeled People vs. Fossil Fuels, are being billed as a test for Biden. Pressure on Biden has been rising since he failed to acknowledge vocal, Indigenous-led protests to the Line 3 tar sands oil pipeline, which went online October 1 in Minnesota. As DeSmog recently reported, Indigenous peoples in North America have helped block at least eight major fossil fuel projects, from oil pipelines to LNG export terminals, keeping enormous volumes of carbon pollution out of the atmosphere. This morning, a few hundred activists marched from Freedom Square to the White House where Indigenous leaders spoke, mostly addressing President Biden, whom they called on to honor his campaign promises to protect the planet. “We are going to put our bodies on the line there. If we have to be arrested in order to call attention to what the crisis is and that we need a climate emergency declared, we’ll do that,” said Casey Camp Horinek, long-time activist and tribal elder and environmental ambassador for Ponca Nation, located in what’s now Oklahoma. “There’s been 500 years of people coming into a territory where all things were interdependent and functioning to a time of crisis, where even Biden’s great-grandchildren won’t survive if something doesn’t change.” “Joe Biden, you have been making false promises. You stopped Keystone XL — what about DAPL, Line 5, MVP?” Joye Braun, a member of the Cheyenne River Sioux and a national pipeline campaign organizer with the Indigenous Environmental Network, said following Horinek. “Biden has turned a fork tongue, and he needs to be held accountable to the promises he made to Indigenous nations when we helped elect him.” She added, “This is indigenous land. Indigenous peoples will be here for thousands of years. Biden, can you hear us now?” Both Horinek and Braun were among those arrested during a sit-in at the White House fence.
Northern Buys Stakes Across 400 Producing Wellbores - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc has announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to buy non-operated interests across over 400 producing wellbores for $154 million in cash, subject to typical closing adjustments. The wellbores are located primarily in Williams, McKenzie, Mountrail and Dunn Counties, ND, the company revealed, adding that it expects to fund the acquisition with cash on hand, operating free cash flow and borrowings under its revolving credit facility. The effective date for the transaction is October 1 and Northern anticipates closing the deal within 40 days. October production on the assets is expected to be greater than 4,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and average more than 4,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022. The assets, which are operated by multiple operators, include 65.9 net producing wells. Back in June, Northern Oil and Gas announced that it had entered into three definitive agreements to acquire non-operated interests across approximately 2,900 net acres located in the heart of Reeves County, Texas, and Lea and Eddy Counties, New Mexico, for a combined purchase price of $102.2 million. In April, the company revealed that that it had closed its previously announced acquisition of properties owned by Reliance Marcellus, LLC. When this deal was first announced in February, it was described as a transformational acquisition in the Marcellus shale.
North Dakota oil production sees slight uptick in August -New data shows that North Dakota's oil production rose slightly in August but didn't stray far from the level at which it seems to have plateaued this year. The state's oil output in August was 1.107 million barrels per day, a 2.8% increase over July production, according to figures released Wednesday by the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division. Production figures calculated by the state lag several months. Oil production this year hasn't strayed far from 1.1 million barrels per day as the industry slowly recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, which sent oil prices plummeting in 2020. Natural gas production increased to 2.96 billion cubic feet per day in August, also a 2.8% increase. Companies captured 92% of gas produced statewide, meeting the state's 91% target in place to reduce the amount of gas wastefully burned off in flares at well sites.
In this L.A. neighborhood surrounded by oil refineries, residents grapple with health issues— Magali Sanchez-Hall, 51, who's lived near Interstate 110 in the Wilmington neighborhood of Los Angeles for more than two decades, is used to the smell of rotting eggs wafting from the hundreds of oil wells operating in the neighborhood. She's used to her neighbors describing chronic coughs, skin rashes and cancer diagnoses, and to the asthma that affects her own family, who live only 1,500 feet from a refinery. "When people are getting sick with cancer or having asthma, they might think it's normal or blame genetics," she said. "We don't often look at the environment we're in and think — the chemicals we're breathing are the cause." Wilmington, a predominantly working-class and Latino immigrant community of more than 50,000 people, has some of the highest rates of asthma and cancer in the state, according to a report by the non-profit Communities for a Better Environment. It's surrounded by six oil refineries and wedged in by several freeways and the ports of L.A. and Long Beach. California, the seventh-largest oil-producing state in the U.S., has no rule or standard for the distance that active oil wells need to be from communities. For many Californians, especially Black and brown residents, acrid smells, noise and dirt from oil production is part of the neighborhood. At night, the sky is lit orange from refinery flares. In L.A. County, the industry employs about 37,000 people, according to a report by Capitol Matrix Consulting. More than 2 million California residents live within 2,500 feet of an operational oil and gas well and another 5 million — 14% of the state's population — are within 1 mile, according to an analysis by the non-profit FracTracker Alliance. Residents are especially vulnerable in L.A. County, which is home to the Inglewood Oil Field. The 1,000-acre site is one of the largest urban oil fields in the country. More than half a million people live within a quarter mile of active wells that release hazardous air pollutants like benzene, hydrogen sulfide, particulate matter and formaldehyde. Sanchez-Hall didn't understand the link between the nearby refineries and the health issues in her community until she left. She graduated college and pursued a masters degree at UCLA, where she took environmental law classes, and now advocates for clean air and energy in her neighborhood. "Now I understood why people were dying of cancer around me. We're not disposable people. There is a huge disadvantage because many of us don't know what's happening."
California’s Dirty Little Secret: Oil Wells in the Backyard -- As a child, Ashley Hernandez remembers pretending that the oil pumpjacks that loomed over her neighborhood were dinosaurs. The strange metal animals pecked rhythmically at the earth, sandwiched between homes, next to playgrounds, in the parking lots of grocery stores, sucking the oil from the sediments beneath her neighborhood of Wilmington in southern Los Angeles. Hernandez also remembers the nosebleeds. She would get them at night, and they were intense — not a trickle of blood, but so heavy that her mom would often tell her to try not to bleed through her pillows. The nosebleeds weren’t the only thing. Kids and teachers at her school would get cancer diagnoses — a lot. She remembers being scared of the noise that was made by the strange device that her mom would use at night — a nebulizer, to treat her asthma. Adults would tell her not to drink the tap water. And there were periodic warnings to stay inside because of explosions at nearby refineries. It wasn’t until she was in high school that Hernandez started to learn about the possible connections between the nosebleeds, the cancer, the asthma, the undrinkable water, and the oil. Despite California’s reputation as an environmentally friendly state, neighborhood drilling is a distinctly Californian phenomenon. Wilmington and the neighboring community of Carson are home to five oil refineries, as well as the Wilmington Oil Field — the third-most productive patch in the United States. More than 3,400 onshore wells have been drilled in the field since oil was first discovered there in 1932; today, the site pumps out 46,000 barrels per day from 1,550 active wells. Wilmington is also home to more than 50,000 residents, more than 90 percent of whom are people of color. Due to the impact of the oil and gas drilling and refining, census tracts in Wilmington are exposed to more pollution than 80 to 90 percent of the state of California. Meanwhile, predominantly white Palos Verdes — some 12 miles west of Wilmington, on the other side of Interstate 110 — is exposed to less pollution than 85 percent of the state. Hernandez herself grew up only 600 feet from a drilling site run by a subsidiary of Warren Resources. The site has 90 active oil wells that operate 24 hours a day. The wells are loud and emit noxious odors — sometimes the smells evoke rotten eggs, she explained, other times they’re sickly sweet. “A lot of our experiences on the front line are a physical attack on our body,” said Hernandez. Hernandez is one of millions of Californians affected by neighborhood drilling — the practice of exploring for oil right in the middle of communities, next to the places where people live, study, and seek medical care. The phenomenon disproportionately impacts low-income communities and communities of color, and creates an environmental health nightmare for those living in its shadow.
Unified Command responds to oil spill in San Diego, Orange counties – Authorities continued to respond to coastal oil spills in Orange County and San Diego County on Saturday as officials said the offshore recovery team had not seen floating oil in the water for three consecutive days. .. The leak was reported on the morning of October 2, a few miles off the coast of Huntington Beach, but some boaters reported that the water smelled something on Friday. The evaluation team was scheduled to check these locations in San Diego County for visible signs of oil. The beach at Encinitas remained open on Saturday, despite reports of tar balls being washed ashore. Unified Command said on Saturday that civilians could encounter tarballs when visiting the beaches of San Diego. “Oil contains dangerous chemicals and for safety reasons, do not handle tar balls or oil,” the command warned. “If a beach enthusiast encounters tarball, we recommend sending an email to tarballreports@wildlife.ca.gov,” the group said. “If it gets on your skin, wash it with soap and water or baby oil. Avoid using solvents, gasoline, kerosene, diesel fuel, or similar products on your skin.” More than 1,300 people are working on it, with a total of 5,544 gallons of crude oil being recovered by the vessel and 13.5 barrels of tarball being recovered on Friday. Approximately 232,500 pounds of oily debris was recovered from the coastline, three flights were scheduled for Saturday, and an 11,400-foot containment boom was strategically deployed. In Carlsbad, one of San Diego County’s largest sources of locally produced drinking water was carefully monitoring the potential impact of oil spills on the region. The Carlsbad Desalination Plant supplies 10% of San Diego County’s drinking water and produces 50 million gallons of desalination per day. As of Friday morning, Sachin Chawla, president of Poseidon Resources Channelside, said there were no signs of oil near the plant. Authorities are aware that tarballs have been washed away on the beaches of North County, Chaura said. But he said they were not a threat to the plants.
California pipeline likely damaged up to a year before spill - (AP) — An underwater oil pipeline off the Southern California coast was likely damaged by a ship’s anchor several months to a year before it ruptured and sent oil spewing into the ocean and then onto some of the area’s best-known beaches, investigators said Friday. Coast Guard Capt. Jason Neubauer, chief of the office of investigations and analysis, said after the first strike it’s possible other ships’ anchors subsequently struck the steel pipe that brings oil to shore from three platforms out at sea. Investigators previously said a large section of the pipe was bowed after being struck and dragged along the seabed. It remains unknown when the slender, 13-inch (33-centimeter) crack began leaking oil, and investigators will pour over a year of data on ship movements near the area of the break. No ships have been identified as suspects at this point.“We’re going to be looking at every vessel movement over that pipeline, and every close encroachment from the anchorages for the entire course of the year,” Neubauer said.The accident scene is outside the Long Beach-Los Angeles port complex that is the largest in the country and handles some 4,000 vessels a year. Many of them are from overseas and that could complicate the process of boarding ships of interest in the investigation to get information. The disclosure that the damage to the pipe could have occurred so long ago dramatically reshaped what was known about the leak that sent tens of thousands of gallons of crude into the Pacific. A search that initially appeared to focus on the hunt for one vessel now could send investigators to ports around the country to inspect many ships. It now appears many factors played a role in the pipe’s failure – possible repeated anchor strikes, stresses from being dragged along the seafloor and the corrosive forces of seawater.
U.S. Coast Guard monitoring San Diego coastline for signs of oil spill More than a week after an undersea pipeline leaked thousands of gallons of crude oil into the ocean, the beaches of Huntington Beach reopened Monday after water quality testing has shown no detectable amounts of oil toxins in the water. News 8 rode along Monday with the U.S. Coast Guard on one of their daily oversight missions in an MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter as they continued to monitor the San Diego coastline for any signs of oil spill remnants drifting south to our area. “We’re looking for areas of interest where oil may be congregating together,” said Commander Seth Parker of the U.S. Coast Guard. They’ve been monitoring closely for over a week since the oil spill was discovered in Orange County. Since last Thursday, they’ve had five shoreline assessment teams staged throughout San Diego County, ready to respond to any reports of oil slicks in the area. “Over the last four days, I would say we have not seen any on-water sheening,” said Parker. “That’s a tribute to all the response efforts.” As for San Diego county, they’re seeing about three tar balls per mile of beachline, which they say is minimal. “We’ve noticed very, very light,” said Parker. “Not really much more than what naturally occurs on the San Diego beaches.” If anyone sees tar balls wash up onshore, the Coast Guard is advising people not to touch them, but to report them instead by notifying Unified Command with an email message at tarballreports@wildlife.ca.gov. “It’s a petroleum-based product,” said Parker. “It’s a very hazardous substance that could irritate the skin and really cause a lot more damage to yourself and to the environment if handled without proper protective equipment.” All in all, our San Diego coastline has seen minimal impact so far, and Commander Seth Parker hopes it stays that way. “All the recovery efforts have been very successful to date and we’ve had very minimal impact,” said Parker.
New details emerge of attempted cover-up in investigation of Southern California oil spill - The investigation into the October 1 oil spill off of the coast of Southern California is now in its second week while cleanup efforts are still only in their earliest stages. Booms used to control the ingress of the oil slick into sensitive wetlands have mostly failed, putting many species of migratory birds and other wildlife at risk. According to official estimates, the spill led to up to 131,000 gallons of oil seeping into the Pacific Ocean. Oil has been spotted from the port city of Long Beach just south of Los Angeles all the way down to San Diego. Investigators now believe a ship’s anchor struck a portion of the 18-mile pipeline from where the spill originated, displacing it by 105 feet and ripping off a portion of the pipeline’s concrete casing. While this event by itself likely happened weeks and even months before the pipeline ruptured, it led to that section being dangerously exposed to future natural or manmade events ultimately leading to the 13-inch rupture last Friday causing the spill. However, the total length of the displaced pipeline was nearly 4,000 feet leading to questions about why the pipeline operators either never noticed or reported the issue.The pipeline ends at the BETA pump station in Long Beach and originates at the Elly oil rig owned by Amplify Energy Corporation. Based out of Houston, Texas, Amplify Energy owns approximately 1,000 oil wells and 1,500 natural gas wells across the US. The Beta Offshore company has been cited a total of 125 times for safety and environmental violations over the course of the last 40 years but has only paid a total of $85,000 in fines involving three particular safety incidents. Inspections of the sites, moreover, are typically carried out by third party outfits contracted by Amplify itself.Establishing a timeline of events around last week’s spill, investigators found that a low-pressure alarm went off on the Elly oil rig at 2:30 a.m. on Saturday morning, October 2. At 8:55 a.m. the same day, an employee at a firm used by Amplify Energy for crisis management reported an oil spill to federal authorities with the Office of Emergency Services.However, multiple reports of foul-smelling air had been made by residents of coastal Orange County the previous day and the first report of a spill did not originate from the rig operators but from a ship that reported a large oil slick on the surface of the water 4.5 nautical miles west of Huntington Beach at 6 p.m. on Friday.That same evening, satellite imagery which was used to further examine the spill showed a total surface area for the spill of 2.8 by 0.7 nautical miles. An emergency response command center comprised of federal and state environment authorities was then formed to investigate. However, it was already after dark by that time, hampering further investigations until the following morning.Richard Charter, a senior fellow for the Ocean Foundation, said to the Los Angeles Times of the timing of the response, “You don’t have pressure drop in a pipeline and not know about it. And that raises the question, ‘Why did the response kick in a day late?’ Somebody did nothing. You shouldn’t have to wait until the oil’s lapping up on the shoreline to find out that you’ve had an oil spill.”
Southern California oil spill now being investigated by state Department of Justice – California’s Department of Justice has launched an investigation into what caused the oil spill off the coast of Huntington Beach, with both civil and criminal charges possible, Attorney General Rob Bonta announced during a press conference Monday with U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla. “We are working in coordination with federal, state and local authorities to determine the cause of spill and what if anything could have been done to prevent or minimize this disaster,” Bonta said as he stood just off the sand of Huntington State Beach, with the outline of the oil platform connected to the damaged pipeline barely visible offshore through the afternoon haze. “If our laws were violated, we will hold those responsible accountable.” The news came the same day Huntington Beach reopened to visitors for the first time since a pipeline spill dumped up to 131,000 gallons of oil in the ocean off Orange County on Oct. 1 and 2, killing wildlife and hurting area businesses. City officials said Sunday that water quality tests showed “non-detectable” amounts of oil-associated toxins in ocean water. Padilla and Bonta said they were encouraged by what they saw during a flyover of the spil
Democrats Begin Scrutiny of Abandoned Offshore Oil Equipment - House Democrats began Thursday making the case for stricter regulation of thousands of abandoned wells, platforms and pipelines off the U.S. coasts following one of the biggest off-shore spills in California in nearly 30 years. A hearing by a sub panel of the House Natural Resources Committee comes as anger over oil fouling Huntington Beach has renewed demands for offshore oil drilling bans and led to bills mandating expensive leak detection equipment and new spill reporting requirements. “Stronger federal regulation of this offshore infrastructure is essential to reduce future spills and other impacts and protect taxpayers from shouldering the cleanup costs,” said Representative Alan Lowenthal, a California Democrat who chairs the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. It’s also leading to fresh scrutiny of aging offshore oil and gas infrastructure. Of 55,000 oil and gas wells drilled in federal waters off the U.S. coast, 59% or roughly 32,000, have been abandoned, according to prepared testimony by Donald F. Boesch, a University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science professor. In addition, 18,000 miles (29,000 kilometers) of decommissioned pipelines snake the ocean floor in the Gulf of Mexico “and we do not know where all of them are or the companies that put them in place,” Boesch said in his written testimony. One such pipeline, a 12-inch pipeline that still held oil, was damaged earlier this fall by Hurricane Ida, and created a miles long oil spill off the coast of Louisiana. “Leaving oil and gas infrastructure in place can be a ticking time bomb, with the potential for damage from storms, accidents and corrosion all leading to more costly decommissioning efforts,” said Rob Schuwerk, North American executive director of the Carbon Tracker Initiative, an independent financial think tank. Committee Republicans, for their part, asserted that the benefits of offshore oil and gas production include domestic energy security, jobs and federal revenue. And used the hearing as a chance to blast President Joe Biden for rising gasoline prices. “Joe Biden seems hell bent on creating his own energy crisis,” Representative Pete Stauber, a Minnesota Republican, said during the hearing. Decommissioning offshore oil and gas infrastructure could cost the industry as much as $50 billion, Schuwerk said in his written testimony, citing estimates from the Interior Department’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. While Interior Department rules require the removal of offshore oil and gas equipment, companies have been able to avoid permanently plugging old wells and federal rules do not require companies to provide adequate bonds to cover full decommissioning costs, according to committee Democrats.
What happens after an oil spill? -Marine oil spills have plagued the fossil fuels industry since the introduction of offshore extraction and transport. The current spill in Southern California is just the latest episode.Before touching upon the actions of spilled oil on impacted ecosystems, it is important to review its fate. First, oil is a mixture of both large and small carbon compounds; larger ones form relatively inert tar while the smaller ones tend to be more mobile. We also know that while oil and water do not mix, they do interact — immediately upon release oil begins to spread, disperse and evaporate; it also simultaneously degrades via the actions of both sunlight and bacteria. Thus, an oil spill breaks into smaller and smaller patches until it completely disperses. Toxic impacts to marine organisms may be most apparent near the point of release as the oil is most concentrated, and over time impacted ecosystems recover as it dissipates. This process, known as “weathering,” can be assisted by response techniques such as the use of booms, skimmers and detergent-based dispersants. However, ultimately it is the environment that “cleans up” a spill. Upon release, oil coats the organisms it comes in contact with. With birds and mammals, it can mat fur and feathers such that they no longer efficiently trap air. This results in a loss of both insulation and buoyancy, and often results in death due to hypothermia. Both birds and mammals may attempt to remove the oil through preening. However, the ingested oil can cause both vomiting and neurological effects in the short term, and tumor formation over time. Again, death is often the end result.Other marine organisms can also be significantly impacted by spilled oil. Plankton and algae, at the base of the marine food web, are often heavily impacted due to coating. Most invertebrates, such as clams and mussels, as well as fishes rely on external fertilization for reproduction. Thus, their reproductive cells and larvae are also directly subject to the toxicity of oil. In fact, they tend to be much more sensitive than adults and can be heavily impacted (thus they are referred to as “sensitive life stages”). This can result in reproductive failure and ultimately population declines that may last for years.Both invertebrates and fishes also take up the smaller carbon compounds by way of both ingestion and respiration (via their gills). Similar to birds and mammals this can lead to neurological effects and tumor formation over time. However, they are also capable of excreting residues. Thus, once an oil spill dissipates their tissue concentrations also tend to decline. This is important when considering seafood species and human consumption, and tissue levels are usually monitored over time to determine when they are again safe to eat.Humans are primarily affected by spilled oil in two ways: inhalation and skin contact. As mentioned above, the smaller carbon compounds which tend to be most toxic usually evaporate quickly. If inhaled, they can cause lung irritation, nausea and vomiting; if exposure persists over time, cancer risk may be elevated. Skin contact, usually from tar that washes ashore, can cause irritation and rash.Over time ecosystems can recover, as spilled oil dissipates and decimated populations recover. Bear in mind that petroleum has been present in our environment for millions of years via seeps and pools, a good example being the La Brea Tar Pits near Los Angeles, Calif.. The discovery of seeps likely led to the first use of oil by humans. It is possible that in areas rich in oil from natural seeps, such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Santa Barbara Channel, bacteria have evolved the capability of not only degrading oil but using it as an energy source. Otherwise, it would likely have accumulated over time. Thus, the good news is the environment is resilient and capable of recovering after a spill, though it may take time.
Report released on the Alaska LNG Project - In a new report, the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) detailed the significant environmental and climate benefits achieved by developing the Alaska LNG Project, which will utilise North Slope natural gas to replace high-emissions coal in heavily polluted Asian markets and substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy said, “Alaska has some of the world’s strictest environmental laws, and Alaska natural gas should be a key component of any realistic energy roadmap to a cleaner climate. This report documents the substantial climate benefits that clean-burning Alaska natural gas has for our environment here at home and around the world.” AGDC President Frank Richards added, “The world is increasingly focused on the climate impact of new high-volume, reliable energy projects. This timely assessment uses respected and transparent methodologies to quantify the value of replacing high-emissions energy sources in foreign markets with low-emissions Alaska LNG. The justification for Alaska LNG is compelling.” The report, Greenhouse Gas Lifecycle Assessment: Alaska LNG Project, documents how Alaska LNG reduces annual carbon dioxide equivalent emissions generated by a representative Asian regional coal supply chain by 77 million t, a 50% reduction. According to data from the US Environmental Protection Agency, eliminating 77 million t of carbon emissions is the annual equivalent of taking 19 coal-fired power plants offline or 16.8 million passenger cars off the road for a year, or eliminating the emissions generated by powering 9.3 million homes or the emissions from burning 8.7 billion gal. of gasoline. The report also compares Alaska LNG emissions to equivalent LNG projects in Louisiana and Australia that have undergone similar lifecycle analyses, and documents that the production and delivery of Alaska LNG provides 50% lower greenhouse gas intensity compared to these projects. Alaska LNG’s relative emissions efficiencies reflect Alaska’s close proximity to target Asian markets, which reduce round-trip shipping times by about a month, efficiencies resulting from shared facilities for North Slope oil production, the utilisation of a single pipeline and compressor system, and fewer gathering and boosting emissions required by the North Slope’s compact production footprint.
LNG Canada Construction Hits Halfway Point - Construction on the first phase of the Royal Dutch Shell plc-led liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility in British Columbia, known as LNG Canada, has hit the halfway point, with activity to accelerate in the coming months. In a notice posted on the LNG Canada website Wednesday, management said the project had “just surpassed the 50% completion mark,” adding things were “moving swiftly” toward commissioning and start-up.Management also noted the project has been able to reach major milestones “safely and on schedule” despite the Covid-19 pandemic. Those milestones include raising the roof on its LNG tank and the arrival of its main cryogenic heat exchanger and two precooler units.Looking ahead, the first liquefaction module is expected to arrive on-site in the next six-to-12 months, staff said in a video. “It’s going to be fast and furious from then on,” senior contract manager Spenser Heard said in the video.The first phase comprises two trains capable of producing 14 million tons/year combined. A second phase, which has not been sanctioned, could expand the facility by two additional trains.The project is expected to ship its first cargo around the middle of the decade.The LNG Canada consortium has recently been involved in a dispute with Canadian pipeline giant TC Energy Corp. over increased costs and delays on the TC-led Coastal GasLink system, which would supply feed gas to the facility. In August, TC Executive Vice President Tracy Robinson said discussions with LNG Canada were continuing. During the 2Q2021 earnings call, she said TC and its Coastal GasLink partners were focused on commercial conversations “as a mechanism” to resolve the disagreement. Around the same time, LNG Canada President Peter Zebedee said progress on Coastal GasLink was encouraging, but the consortium remained “concerned” about the increased cost estimates and schedule delay.Shell holds a 40% interest in LNG Canada. Its partners are Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Berhad, aka Petronas, with 25%, PetroChina Co. Ltd. and Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp. with 15% each, and Korea Gas Corp. with 5%.
Gasoline Suspected in Water Supply of Canada’s Northernmost Capital --Canada's northernmost capital has declared a local state of emergency because of suspected gasoline contamination in the water supply. Residents of Iqaluit, the capital of the Arctic territory of Nunavut, have been warned not to drink, boil or cook with the city's water. "Due to the possibility of petroleum hydrocarbons at the Iqaluit water treatment plant, the Department of Health is advising Iqalummiut not to consume tap water for drinking or cooking, until further notice," the territory's government wrote in a public health advisory published Tuesday. https://t.co/3hdvDvzWfl An investigation into the city's water supply began late last week, when residents complained that their tap water smelled like gasoline, The Guardian reported. At first, tests suggested the water was safe. But a more recent test conducted in Ottawa turned up evidence of microbes in the water. In a city council meeting Tuesday evening, chief administrative officer Amy Elgersma also said that staff had located "concentrated odors" in the city's water treatment plant, CBC News reported."We suspect there is some type of petroleum product that has entered the water system," Elgersma said at the meeting.Samples from the treatment plant have been sent in for testing, and results should be due in five business days. The health advisory said that the city's tap water could be used for laundry, cleaning and showers. However, pregnant women, newborns and infants should not bathe in the water, and it should not be added to infant formulae. Iqaluit Mayor Kenny Bell further warned that all residents were impacted, no matter how they received their water."It's everything. Any treated water," Bell told Nunatsiaq News.This means the city's more than 7,000 residents will all need alternative water sources, CBC News noted.This is occurring in a remote area where food and bottled water costs are extremely high, The Guardian reported. A liter bottle of water costs around $7.25 and a pack of a dozen smaller bottles costs $24."It is extremely expensive, everything is extremely expensive here," Bell told CBC North, as The Guardian reported. "Right now, we're in limbo because there is not enough jugs to fill with water to give to people."
Sharp surge in energy prices threatens economic recovery and is already slowing growth Energy prices are surging, and the economy is already feeling the pinch of higher fuel costs though it is far from stalling out. There is an unusual coincidence of much higher oil, natural gas and coal prices, combined with other rising commodities and supply chain disruptions. That perfect storm of shortages and higher prices begs the question of whether the economy could go into a serious tailspin or even a recession. Economists say, for now, the jump in prices is not the type of oil shock that will turn U.S. growth negative, but there will be economic consequences of higher energy costs, particularly in places like Europe where natural gas prices have skyrocketed. "Periods of trending oil prices tend not to be a problem," JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman said. "The periods of spiking oil prices tend to be what gets you into trouble. They tend to be largely supply driven, and they tend to have disruptive elements that are more broad in terms of their potential drags on growth." "We do have a rise in energy that will be a drag on fourth quarter growth," he added. "It's not at a point where we're warning about recession, but it's at the point where you have to worry about it hurting growth in a material way." American consumers have already been paying up for gasoline, and heating and electricity costs could rise more this winter. Oil prices are up more than 65% this year so far, while natural gas prices have jumped more than 112% since January. "We're looking at GDP growth in the 4% to 6% range ... We would have to see massive doubling and tripling of oil prices for it to have such a bad effect that we go ... to negative growth," . Since last October, gasoline prices have risen about $1.10 per gallon, and are now at $3.27 per gallon of unleaded, according to AAA. Oil prices were depressed and even turned negative when the pandemic shut down the economy in 2020. Now, forecasts for $100 oil are getting more common, as West Texas Intermediate oil futures trade above $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014. "What's different about this is normally it's oil that leads an energy crisis, but in this case it's the tail that's being wagged by natural gas, coal and renewables," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. "Oil is filling in to make up for the fact that [liquified natural gas] is maxed out and wind in Europe has been a lot lower than normal." Yergin said oil will likely remain under pressure, and within several months about 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day could be used as a substitute for natural gas in Europe and Asia, where supplies are short. Oil can be substituted for electricity generation and in some manufacturing. Citigroup forecasts a winter price shock that could see natural gas prices in Europe average over $30 per one million British thermal unit in the fourth quarter and over $32 in Asia. But Citi energy analysts also say if there is a very cold winter that could spike as high as $100 mmBtus, the equivalent of about a $580 barrel of oil. By comparison, U.S. natural gas futures are currently trading at $5.25 per mmBtu.
Sky’s the Limit for European Natural Gas Prices this Winter, Wood Mackenzie Says - European natural gas stockpiles could be completely drained over the next few months, leaving the continent wholly dependent on Russian pipeline imports if this winter turns out to be unseasonably cold in both Europe and Asia, according to an analysis from Wood Mackenzie. Colder winter weather across the globe could raise European heating demand to 20 billion cubic meters (Bcm) and redirect up to 10.5 Bcm of cargoes from the continent to Asia. Combined, that would be greater than the 29 Bcm Wood Mackenzie anticipates would be in European storage at the end of March. “There is a risk storage levels could drop to zero,” said Wood Mackenzie Vice President of Gas and LNG Research Massimo Di Odoardo. If that happens, Europe would have to rely on “timely approval” of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (NS2) or increased Russian flows through Ukraine to avoid demand curtailments, according to Di Odoardo. NS2 could deliver up to 12.5 Bcm through the winter, but it is so far unclear whether the project would move forward in time. Meanwhile, Russia has shown some reluctance to provide additional pipeline shipments via Ukraine. However, Wood Mackenzie noted President Vladimir Putin has promised to stabilize the market, which could result in increased volumes on that route. Goldman Sachs Commodities Research analysts led by Samantha Dart said the remarks by Putin and other Russian officials reiterated statements made over the past few months. “In our view, uncertainty remains regarding potential Russian gas flows to Northwest Europe this winter,” the analysts said in a recent note to clients. Goldman expects shipments from existing pipelines to normalize from reduced levels starting in November, and NS2 will come online this winter, adding 10 Bcm of supply to the continent. “We see symmetrical risks to both these assumptions, as the recent decline in flows to Europe could reflect the lack of enough supply to feed both European and Russian gas storage sites and with the potential for the NS2 pipeline to bring additional volumes once approved,” the analysts said. “Until there is greater clarity on Russia’s gas send-outs to Europe, we expect European Union gas prices to remain volatile and skewed to the upside given the need for industrial user gas demand rationing if Russian flows remain low in November and December.” Wood Mackenzie also expects prices to ease under normal weather conditions. The consultancy predicts European storage would reach a record low 78% of capacity, or 87 Bcm by the end of October. To meet demand, the continent would likely need around 58 Bcm of storage, leaving about 29 Bcm stockpiled by the end of March. That is below the five-year average, but “comfortably above” record lows, according to Wood Mackenzie. And while LNG imports are likely to be limited this winter as demand remains strong in Asia, rebounds in UK and Norwegian production as well as stronger exports from Algeria and Azerbaijan are forecast to increase pipeline supply compared to summer. Still, whether prices go up or down would depend largely on the weather. “The sky could be the limit for European gas prices this winter,” Wood Mackenzie said.
Nord Stream 2: Vladimir Putin accused of ‘choking’ gas supply to push up price - The UK has accused Russian president Vladimir Putin of “choking off” the supply of gas to Europe to increase energy prices and win approval for its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, the Times reports. It continues: “Ministers believe Russia is deliberately restricting gas exports as part of a strategy to force European Union nations into approving Nord Stream 2, a pipeline under the Baltic Sea.” UK prime minister Boris Johnson warned last night that approval of the pipeline by the EU would have “significant security implications”, the paper notes, and a No 10 spokesman said: “Although Nord Stream 2 will not directly impact the UK’s energy security, it could have serious implications for central and eastern European countries. Some European countries are nearly wholly dependent on Russian gas, which raises serious concerns about energy security.” US national security adviser Jake Sullivan – who met with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and other officials in Brussels yesterday – “said he would not speculate on whether Russia was manipulating gas prices”, reports Politico. “Russia has a history of using energy as a tool of coercion, as a political weapon,” Sullivan told journalists, adding: “Whether that’s what’s happening here now is something I will leave to others.” Speaking to the Financial Times, Fatih Birol – executive director of the International Energy Agency – urged Russia to prove it is a “reliable supplier” by helping alleviate the supply crunch. he said: “If Russia does what it indicated yesterday and increases the volumes to Europe, this would have a calming effect on the market…I don’t say they will do it but if they wish so, they have the capacity to do it.” Peter Apps – a writer on international affairs, globalisation, conflict and other issues – has a Reuters column on why “Europe’s gas crisis comes at perfect moment for Moscow”. Meanwhile, the UK has enough gas supply capacity to meet demand this winter, grid operator National Grid said in its winter gas outlook yesterday, reports Reuters. The gas outlook report comes after UK wholesale gas prices “exceeded £3 ($4) per therm for the first time this week, having surged by about 500% since the start of the year along with soaring global energy prices”, the newswire says. Ian Radley, director of gas system operations, said: “We have a positive gas supply margin in all of our supply and demand scenarios, and there is a positive storage position as we enter the winter.“ At the same time, the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) said the electricity system’s capacity should also cope with the winter, reports the Press Association. ESO boss Fintan Slye: “Margins are well within the reliability standard and, therefore, we are confident that there will be enough capacity available to keep Britain’s lights on.” However, the Guardian notes that the “risk of power cuts…has increased…with the key ‘margin’ figure falling to its lowest in five years”. The paper reports that the amount of reserve electricity supply that could be called upon was expected to be 6.6% of demand, but could fall as low as 4.2%. Reuters reports that “soaring gas prices are forecast to drive a switch to oil and put more energy suppliers in Britain out of business”. Business and energy secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has said that by decarbonising the UK’s power supply, the government would ensure that households are less vulnerable to swings in fossil fuel markets, the Press Association reports. Speaking at a conference organised by trade body Energy UK, he said: “Relying on homegrown power generation will protect consumers from gas price fluctuations…And it will, in the long run, bring down bills. We will use the wealth of Britain’s natural resources to deliver cleaner, cheaper power.”
Moscow’s EU envoy urges Europe to fix ties to avoid gas shortages - The Kremlin’s ambassador to the EU has called on Europe to mend ties with Moscow in order to avoid future gas shortages, but insisted that Russia had nothing to do with the recent jump in prices. Vladimir Chizhov, Russia’s permanent representative to the EU, said he expected Gazprom, the state-controlled exporter that supplies 35 per cent of European gas needs, to respond swiftly to instructions from president Vladimir Putin to adjust output.Action, which would help curb skyrocketing wholesale prices, was likely to come “sooner rather than later,” he said. Putin “gave some advice to Gazprom, to be more flexible. And something makes me think that Gazprom will listen,” Chizhov told the Financial Times.While rejecting assertions from European lawmakers that Russia had played a role in Europe’s gas crunch, Chizhov said Europe’s choice to treat Moscow as a geopolitical “adversary” had not helped.“The crux of the matter is only a matter of phraseology,” he said. “Change adversary to partner and things get resolved easier . . . when the EU finds enough political will to do this, they will know where to find us.” Natural gas prices in Europe have been surging, raising fears of a winter fuel crisis and putting the economic recovery in jeopardy. At one point last week spot gas prices reached nearly 10 times their level from the beginning of the year, before abruptly dropping after Putin hinted that Gazprom might increase supplies.Chizhov insisted Moscow had no interest in gas price surges. “This does not promote stability,” he said. “People will start looking around, turning back from gas to coal, which some are already doing.”Record high prices and low reserves have spooked EU governments fearful of a winter shortage and led to demands from some member states for Brussels to consider emergency remedies or new reforms. But energy commissioner Kadri Simson told the FT last week that the roots of the crisis were “not created here in Europe”.Cold winters in Europe and Asia drained gas in storage while the economic rebound from the pandemic has pushed up demand and lower wind speeds in Europe this summer have reduced renewable energy generation.Russian officials have said that regulatory approval to permit gas flows through the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany would help solve the crisis. Some analysts have suggested Moscow is exacerbating the price squeeze to force such an outcome. The US and many eastern EU states oppose the pipeline, which they say was designed to circumvent gas transit through Ukraine.Chizhov said the EU’s own energy policies had worsened the bloc’s woes as well as a reluctance among European energy companies to pay more to replenish their reserves. “All the problems that are arising have been created artificially. Primarily for political reasons,” he said. However, Klaus-Dieter Maubach, chief executive of German gas company Uniper, a Gazprom client, suggested last week that supplies were the issue. Uniper “would be happy if Gazprom . . . delivered more volumes to cool down the situation and lower the gas price,” he said at a conference in Russia.Chizhov also said the crisis had been aggravated by EU regulations that force Gazprom to supply a proportion of gas to Europe on the freely-traded spot market terms, rather than through long-term contracts, which Brussels has argued are uncompetitive. “Long-term contracts . . . provided security of supply and stability of volumes and prices. Then came this idea, emanating from Brussels, that the system should be changed,” he said.
Putin says Russia is not using gas as a weapon, stands ready to aid Europe -Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that his country is not using energy as a weapon a gainst Europe and that Russia stands ready to help the region as its energy crisis continues."We are not using any weapons," Putin told CNBC in Moscow on Wednesday, according to a translation. "Even during the hardest parts of the Cold War Russia regularly has fulfilled its contractual obligations and supplies gas to Europe," he said.Describing reports that Russia has withheld gas supplies to Europe, Putin called such accusations "politically motivated blather" and there was "nothing to support it [the idea] that we use energy as a kind of weapon." On the contrary, he said, Russia was "expanding its supplies to Europe."Putin's comments came as he participated in a panel moderated by CNBC's Hadley Gamble at Russian Energy Week, an annual event in Moscow which is now in its 20th year. Speaking ahead of the panel, which included the CEOs ofExxonMobil, BP, TotalEnergies and Mercedez-Benz, Putin said that Europe should "not deal in blame-shifting" over the energy crisis in the region and that European countries had not done enough to replenish gas reserves in the summer."Higher gas prices in Europe are a consequence of a deficit of energy and not vice versa and that's why we should not deal in blame shifting, this is what our partners are trying to do," he told delegates at the event."The European gas market does not look to be well-balanced and predictable" he said, with the main reason being, he added "that not everything in this market depends on the producers, no lesser role is played by the consumers of gas."Nonetheless, Russia said it was ready to meet its contractual supply obligations and to discuss additional actions and cooperation with its European partners, Putin said, stating that Russia had already increased its gas supplies to Europe by 15% so far this year.Putin laid the blame for Europe's gas shortages at its own door, as well as blaming a lack of renewable energy generation this summer and reduced supplies from other partners, including the U.S."You see the problem does not consist in us, it consists in the European side, because, first, we know that the wind farms did not work during summer because of the weather, everyone knows that. Moreover, the Europeans did not pump enough gas into their underground gas facilities ... and the supplies to Europe have decreased from other regions of the world."
Putin Blasts Accusations Russia Is Weaponizing Natural Gas As "Politically Motivated Blather" In Wednesday remarks aimed at Western press, President Vladimir Putin shot down accusations that Russia weaponizing its supplies of natural gas in order to pressure German regulators to quickly approve switching on the taps for the recently completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. He dismissed recent reports accusing the Kremlin of withholding gas supplies to Europe as "politically motivated blatherwith nothing to support it". The statements were given to CNBC in Moscow as part of the annual Russian Energy Week major industry event, with Putin bluntly saying in response, "We are not using any weapons." The Russian leader added that "Even during the hardest parts of the Cold War Russia regularly has fulfilled its contractual obligations and supplies gas to Europe," according to the US news network's translation. Last week as Nord Stream 2 critics led by US officials alleged that the Russia-to-Germany pipeline will essentially hold Europe's energy needs hostage to Russian geopolitical whims, Putin instead pointed to Europe's ongoing energy market "hysteria" and crisis as being fundamentally a result of the 'green transition' coupled with corresponding low investment in the extraction industries.In the Wednesday remarks he re-emphasized that there's "nothing to support it [the idea] that we use energy as a kind of weapon," but instead the reality is that Russia is busy "expanding its supplies to Europe." In support of this statement he alluded to state-run Gazprom actually increasing its natural gas flow to Europe by 15% over the first nine months of this year. He added that Russia stands ready to increase its supply if that's what Europe needs and asks for."Higher gas prices in Europe are a consequence of a deficit of energy and not vice versa and that’s why we should not deal in blame shifting, this is what our partners are trying to do," Putin said during the panel conversation. He again invoked Europe's green agenda as playing a big part in its energy costs soaring just ahead of winter:"You see the problem does not consist in us, it consists in the European side, because, first, we know that the wind farms did not work during summer because of the weather, everyone knows that. Moreover, the Europeans did not pump enough gas into their underground gas facilities... and the supplies to Europe have decreased from other regions of the world."
Why the UK is producing half its electricity from gas - Unplanned maintenance at nuclear plants and lower than average wind speeds mean the country is currently relying on gas-powered stations to generate about half its electricity. The eyewatering spike in the cost of gas is painful for domestic consumers and businesses.The wholesale price last week was 500% higher than it was at the start of the year. It's a global price of course, so all countries are affected. But when it comes to generating electricity some are better insulated against the impact.Let's start by looking at the UK.Data from the National Grid shows that at lunchtime on Monday 51% of electricity was generated using gas.Wind, solar and hydroelectric accounted for 25%, nuclear just under 12% and coal a little over 1%.We're burning a lot more gas now than last October, when it was used to generate 38% of electricity.The sharp rise has been just as prices have surged.We've had to turn to gas because the amount generated by nuclear has almost halved since this time last year - several reactors are currently offline because of unplanned maintenance.So how does the UK compare to Germany and France?Well, France is heavily reliant on nuclear energy, which generated 71% of its electricity at lunchtime on Monday.Gas accounted for just 10%, so the direct impact of the price spike on consumers is much lower.Germany turned off much of its nuclear capacity after the Fukushima accident, but replaced it with coal. The dirtiest of all the fossil fuels was used to generate 32% of its electricity at lunchtime.Such heavy use of coal comes with a huge climate cost.According to a report for the UK parliament, coal produces the equivalent of around 800g of carbon dioxide per kilowatt of energy.That's twice as much as gas.Dr Simon Cran-McGreehin, head of analysis at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said it would be wrong for the UK to follow Germany's lead and fire up coal plants."Coal just does not fit inside the carbon budgets that we have, nor the international commitments that we are signing up to," he told Sky News."And on the economics point it is cheaper than gas at the minute, but the lesson from the gas crisis is that fossil fuel prices are very volatile - so coal could become very expensive another time.
LNG Growth Said Creating Competitive Global Natural Gas Markets -Turbulence in natural gas pricing facing buyers across the globe is not a sign of an energy system breakdown but rather is a part of the ongoing creation of competitive markets, according to Carina Energy Consulting’s Sam Andrus. The United States is not only exporting LNG, “but also competitive markets,” Andrus said. “We have connected North America to global markets, and North America-based participants now have to take note of global markets.”LNG ships are “akin to pipelines. And a constraint in a pipeline is a disconnect in prices.” Still, “shipping is a pipeline without line pack,” and a tight market is going to be a reality “for some time until sufficient storage can be built in Asian markets.” Andrus highlighted the fact that Mexico lacked storage, hindering its development of pricing indexes. “Indexes work if traders are willing to trade at that spot. You don’t get trading unless you have an out, which is storage. This is a problem with Mexico. Storage is a key for competitive markets.”Mexico’s natural gas system operator Cenagas has said it is prioritizing the development of underground storage. Meanwhile, state utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) is assuming operatorship of the Altamira LNG terminal to ensure backup supply.As a global natural gas market forms, Henry Hub and the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) are emerging as the key global benchmarks. This is because of their levels of liquidity and the nearby storage options available, Andrus said.He stressed that “competition works,” and high Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) prices last winter stimulated supply and curtailed demand. Additionally, he said U.S. natural gas production would likely respond to price signals next year. “Producers will come back next year. This year, they are forced to sit on the sidelines. There just is no cash to ramp up significantly. As they get their balance sheet fixed, they will start to come back.”
PETRONAS Marine conducts first LNG bunkering operation in Sabah - PETRONAS has conducted its first LNG bunkering operation in Sabah via its dedicated LNG bunker vessel, MV Avenir Advantage. The LNG bunkering for HL Green, the world’s largest 180 000 t LNG-powered vessel, was carried out 12 nautical miles from Sandakan Port. The successful operation was an internal collaborative effort between PETRONAS Marine, PETRONAS Energy & Gas Trading Sdn Bhd and PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad, and their external partner Sabah Ports Sdn Bhd. The Sandakan Port is strategically positioned at the international maritime trade route between Australia and Asia’s leading manufacturing hubs such as Japan, South Korea and China, making it an ideal location for PETRONAS to provide LNG bunkering to the trading vessels plying this route. Commenting on the milestone, Head of PETRONAS Marine, Emry Mohd Tamrin said, “Along with our previous operations at Port Klang in Selangor and Sungai Udang Port in Melaka, this latest effort signifies a major step towards developing Malaysia as an LNG bunkering hub. It also further solidifies PETRONAS Marine’s presence as a one-stop marine solutions partner providing cost-competitive cleaner fuels and reliable services to meet the energy demands of its customers sustainably.” He added that this LNG bunkering solution underscores PETRONAS' efforts to drive greater use of LNG as a cleaner and economically competitive source of energy in the marine industry, as well as to support concerted efforts by the International Maritime Organization in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from shipping activities.
Asia LNG price soars on China power crunch, European demand - Asia liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices soared this week, as the world’s top buyer China faced an ongoing power crunch and low inventory in Europe drove up competition for the super-chilled fuel. The average LNG price for November delivery into Northeast Asia LNG-AS was estimated at about $37 per metric million British thermal units (mmBtu), up nearly 16% from the previous week, industry sources said. December delivery prices were estimated to be about $38 per mmBtu, they added. Price agency S&P Global Platts’ Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM), which is widely used as a benchmark in the spot market, had surged to a record high of $56.326 per mmBtu on Wednesday, before easing later in the week. “The market is still very bullish for winter and any piece of headline is driving up sentiment,” a Singapore-based trader said. Gazprom’s China-focused Amur gas processing plant in Russia’s Far East has halted operations after a fire early on Friday, a spokesman for the plant told Reuters. The broader implications were not immediately clear, but the plant plays an important part in Russian gas exports to China, which has been hit by electricity shortages that have led to power rationing across the country. Bangladesh bought on LNG cargo from Vitol for delivery in mid-October at $35.89 per mmBtu and another from Gunvor for late October delivery at $36.95 per mmBtu, which are the highest prices paid by the country for spot cargoes, an official of state-run Petrobangla said. Freight rates to ship LNG rose this week and are at multi-month highs as the increase in LNG demand has driven up the need for vessels to move supplies, sources said. Production issues at Sakhalin and Indonesia are also supporting prices, a Singapore-based source said. Pakistan may consider only relying on term supplies should current spot prices remain elevated, an industry source said.
Longboat Energy Strikes Oil, Starts Drilling For More - Longboat Energy, a company created by former Faroe Petroleum management, has struck oil in a well located in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and started drilling another. Longboat Energy said that it made a discovery at the Rødhette exploration well. Production license 901 where the well is located is operated by Var Energi with a 50 percent stake while partners Longboat and Concedo hold 20 percent each. Equinor holds the remaining 10 percent. The exploration well, designated 7122/6-3 S, encountered a 95-foot hydrocarbon column in the primary target in the Middle Jurassic Stø Formation. The top of the reservoir was reached close to prognosis containing high net-to-gross, moderate to good quality sandstone. Data acquisition indicates a gas column of around 60 feet in the well over an oil rim. Preliminary estimates by the operator place the size of the discovery between 9 and 12 mmboe recoverable. The well was drilled on time and on budget and will now be plugged and abandoned as planned. As the Rødhette volumes are at the lower end of pre-drill expectations, both existing discoveries and additional prospectivity in the area will be considered in the evaluation of the commercial development potential of Rødhette through existing regional infrastructure. The well was drilled around 18 miles north of the Goliat field. To get in on the action in a seven-well exploration program in Norway, the company entered into agreements with three separate companies structured as three farm-in transactions. Rødhette, already announced as a discovery was agreed as a farm-in with Var Energi. The second one, Egyptian Vulture, is operated by Equinor and spud last month. Longboat also announced the spud of the third well – Mugnetind – with the Maersk Integrator jack-up rig, located in production license 906, which is operated by Aker BP with a 60 percent stake. DNO and Longboat are partners and hold a 20 percent stake each. The Mugnetind prospect is estimated to contain gross mean prospective resources of 24 mmboe with further potential upside estimated at 47 mmboe. The chance of success associated with the Mugnetind prospect is 51 percent with the key risks being reservoir presence and quality. The well is expected to take approximately five to seven weeks to drill with an estimated net cost to Longboat of around $7 million.
As Western Oil Giants Cut Production, State-Owned Companies Step Up - — After years of pumping more oil and gas, Western energy giants like BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are slowing down production as they switch to renewable energy or cut costs after being bruised by the pandemic. But that doesn’t mean the world will have less oil. That’s because state-owned oil companies in the Middle East, North Africa and Latin America are taking advantage of the cutbacks by investor-owned oil companies by cranking up their production. This massive shift could reverse a decade-long trend of rising domestic oil and gas production that turned the United States into a net exporter of oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum products, and make America more dependent on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, authoritarian leaders and politically unstable countries. The push by governments to increase oil and gas production means it could take decades for global fossil fuel supplies to decline unless there is a sharp drop in demand for such fuels. President Biden has effectively accepted the idea that the United States will rely more on foreign oil, at least for the next few years. His administration has been calling on OPEC and its allies to boost production to help bring down rising oil and gasoline prices, even as it seeks to limit the growth of oil and gas production on federal lands and waters. The administration’s approach is a function of two conflicting priorities: Mr. Biden wants to get the world to move away from fossil fuels while protecting Americans from a spike in energy prices. In the short run, it is hard to achieve both goals because most people cannot easily replace internal-combustion engine cars, gas furnaces and other fossil fuel-based products with versions that run on electricity generated from wind turbines, solar panels and other renewable sources of energy. Western oil companies are also under pressure from investors and environmental activists who are demanding a rapid transition to clean energy. Some U.S. producers have said they are reluctant to invest more because they fear oil prices will fall again or because banks and investors are less willing to finance their operations. As a result, some are selling off parts of their fossil fuel empires or are simply spending less on new oil and gas fields. That has created a big opportunity for state-owned oil companies that are not under as much pressure to reduce emissions, though some are also investing in renewable energy. In fact, their political masters often want these oil companies to increase production to help pay down debt, finance government programs and create jobs. Saudi Aramco, the world’s leading oil producer, has announced that it plans to increase oil production capacity by at least a million barrels a day, to 13 million, by the 2030s. Aramco increased its exploration and production investments by $8 billion this year, to $35 billion. “We are capitalizing on the opportunity,” Aramco’s chief executive, Amin H. Nasser, recently told financial analysts. “Of course we are trying to benefit from the lack of investments by major players in the market.” Aramco not only has vast reserves but it can also produce oil much more cheaply than Western companies because its crude is relatively easy to pump out of the ground. So even if demand declines because of a rapid shift to electric cars and trucks, Aramco will most likely be able to pump oil for years or decades longer than many Western energy companies. “The state companies are going their own way,” said René Ortiz, a former OPEC secretary general and a former energy minister in Ecuador. “They don’t care about the political pressure worldwide to control emissions.” State-owned oil companies in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Libya, Argentina, Colombia and Brazil are also planning to increase production. Should oil and natural gas prices stay high or rise further, energy experts say, more oil-producing nations will be tempted to crank up supply.M
'Massive Floating Time Bomb': Decaying Tanker in Red Sea Holds 4x the Oil Spilled by Exxon Valdez - An abandoned supertanker holding more than one million barrels of crude oil has been slowly corroding off Yemen's coast, and a new study out Monday warns that the consequences of an "imminent" spill in the Red Sea could be graver than initially thought — cutting off access to clean water and food aid for millions of people in a matter of days and completely decimating the region's fishing stocks within three weeks."The possibility of a massive oil spill in the Red Sea is increasingly likely," write the authors of the peer-reviewed paper, published in the journal Nature Sustainability. "The Safer, a deteriorating oil tanker containing 1.1 million barrels of oil, has been deserted near the coast of Yemen since 2015 and threatens environmental catastrophe to a country presently in a humanitarian crisis."In their analysis of "the immediate public health impacts of a simulated spill," the scholars estimate that "all of Yemen's imported fuel through its key Red Sea ports would be disrupted and that the anticipated spill could disrupt clean-water supply equivalent to the daily use of 9.0–9.9 million people, food supply for 5.7–8.4 million people, and 93–100% of Yemen's Red Sea fisheries."The new study models the anticipated health effects of a spill — under various seasonal conditions and cleanup scenarios — over the course of three weeks.The researchers write that "ports and desalination plants, crucial for providing fuel, food, and water, stand to be disrupted by the spill. We estimate that two weeks after a spill, Yemen's key ports of Hudaydah and Salif will likely be directly impacted.""The spill and subsequent port closures will disrupt maritime transport across the Red Sea, rerouting many shipments around Africa," the paper says. "We expect fuel prices in Yemen to spike as a consequence."The daily clean water supply for an estimated 1.0-1.9 million people would be threatened if desalination plants are contaminated, while another eight million people could lose access to running water if the spill closes ports, causing fuel shortages that shut down fuel-powered pumps or water trucks.Moreover, hunger would be exacerbated by food aid disruptions and fishery closures."In the event of Yemen's Red Sea ports closing within two weeks of the spill, food aid will be disrupted for an estimated 5.7 (3.7–8.1) million people who currently require food assistance," according to researchers, who estimate that "if Aden's port also closes, a total of 8.4 (5.4–11.9) million people will not receive food aid."Within one week, two-thirds to 85% of Yemen's Red Sea fisheries would be jeopardized, and within three weeks, that figure would surge to 93% to 100%, "depending on the season," the paper states.The researchers "also estimate an increased risk of cardiovascular hospitalization from pollution ranging from 5.8 to 42.0% over the duration of the spill." "The public health impacts of a spill from the oil tanker Safer are expected to be catastrophic, particularly for Yemen," the scholars write.
Brent Crude Nears $85 As Global Energy Crisis Worsens - Oil prices extended Friday’s rally into Monday, with the U.S. benchmark topping $81 and trading just shy of $82 a barrel as Europe and Asia continue to struggle to secure energy supply for the winter.As of 8:21 a.m. EDT on Monday, the front-month WTI Crude contract traded at $81.75, up by 3.00%. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, was up 2.35% at $84.34.Oil extended the rally from last week, which saw the U.S. benchmark topping the $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014.China’s coal and power crisis worsened over the weekend, with coal futures in China closing at a new record high on Monday after sixty coal mines in the country’s top coal-producing region were forced to shut amid heavy rain, flooding, and landslides. The weather-related setbacks for Chinese coal production come at a time when the world’s second-largest economy is grappling with a shortage of coal supply and a power crisis, which threaten to slow economic growth.Europe’s natural gas prices rose on Monday, after the softness seen at the end of last week, following forecasts of colder weather. Gas prices in the UK and at the Dutch TTF hub, the European gas price benchmark, were off the record highs from last week. Yet, the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), cited by ING, shows that gas storage sites across Europe are just over 76 percent full at the moment, compared to a five-year average of nearly 91 percent.The tighter coal and natural gas markets globally raise the outlook for gas-to-oil switch, which is set to boost oil demand.Crude oil “started the week on a strong footing as the global power crunch continues to raise expectations for higher gas-to-oil switching demand at a time where OPEC+ maintains its modest pace of oil monthly oil production increases,” Saxo Bank’s strategy team said in note on Monday. “With WTI already trading at seven-year high, Brent may now target the 2018 high at $86.74,” the bank’s analysts added.
Oil trades above $80 a barrel, hitting a 7-year high -- U.S. oil prices hit a seven-year high Monday, marking an increase of more than 120 percent from just under a year ago.On Monday morning, American crude prices increased 2 percent to hit $81.50 a barrel, dropping slightly to $81.15 by midday before closing at $80.49, the first time since October 2014 that U.S. crude closed at more than $80 a barrel.An international natural-gas shortage could soon extend to the oil market, according to The Wall Street Journal. American natural-gas futures reached $6.31 per million British thermal units last Tuesday, the highest in nearly 13 years, and the shortage has affected households across Europe. If the shortage persists as temperatures turn colder, some power plants may rely on oil to make up for the shortfall, boosting the demand for crude oil. Shortly after taking office, President Biden signed a temporary freeze on leasing for new oil and gas drilling on federal lands, but over the summer a federal court placed a temporary injunction on the order. The administration is appealing the decision but has resumed leasing during the appeals process. The Energy Information Administrationsaid in March that the pause would likely not affect production until 2022.Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said at a Financial Times conference that the administration is considering further releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, according to the Journal, while earlier this year Biden called on the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries to step up production. OPEC announced in August that it would begin a series of coordinated supply increases in August, upping production by 400,000 barrels a day each month thereafter.In response to the European crunch, Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested increasing the supply of natural gas from Russia to Europe could ease the shortage. Russia recently put finishing touches on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a joint arrangement with German entities. The completion came after the U.S. eased sanctions on people and companies involved in its construction, arguing it could not prevent the pipeline’s construction without imposing sanctions on German officials as well.
Oil Bull Continues Run with WTI Closing Above $80 | Rigzone - West Texas Intermediate crude closed above $80 a barrel for the first time since late 2014 as a growing power crisis from Europe to Asia boosts demand for oil ahead of winter. U.S. crude futures advanced 1.5% on Monday in New York, while its global counterpart Brent rose closer to the $85-a-barrel mark. Prices of coal and natural gas have surged globally with stockpiles running low before the Northern Hemisphere winter, prompting some switching to oil products such as diesel and fuel oil. It is quickly tightening the market as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are sticking with their plan to only gradually roll back production cuts. The oil market’s price structure is flashing bullishness, with the difference between New York crude’s front two contracts hit the widest in more than two years, indicating shrinking supplies in the U.S. storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma. “There is definitely this fear of the supply side going to dry up,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index. Even OPEC adding back supply to the market is not “necessarily going to have a massive impact on cooling the price of oil. Oil to $90 is clearly in sight.” Crude futures have advanced about 20% since mid-August as the energy crisis has intensified. Saudi Aramco estimates the gas shortage has already increased oil demand by around 500,000 barrels a day, while Citigroup estimates it could reach about 1 million a day in a bullish case. Citi raised its Brent price estimate for this quarter to $85 a barrel, potentially increasing to as high as $90 at times, on “higher demand, lost supply, gas-to-oil switching and price contagion this winter,” according to a report. If prices continue to rise, the U.S. is likely to ask OPEC member states to pump more crude to help ease a surge the energy prices, said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit, in a Bloomberg Television interview. Over the past few months, the White House has been in communication with OPEC, pushing them to boost their output while stressing the importance of affordable energy. Prices: West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose $1.17 to settle at $80.52 a barrel in New York, the highest since 2014. Brent for December settlement climbed $1.26 to end the session at $83.65 a barrel. Various underlying oil market gauges are showing signs of strength. WTI crude’s nearest contract traded at the biggest premium to second-month futures since September 2019 on Monday, in a sign of tighter supplies. The so-called prompt spread has increased as more of the world attempts to substitute fuel oil for natural gas as quickly as possible.
Crude Futures Extend Higher Amid EU, China's Power Crisis - Following another explosive rally on Monday, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange wobbled in early trade Tuesday, with November West Texas Intermediate higher, trading near $81 per barrel (bbl), propelled by concerns over a quickly tightening global oil market as Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners stick with their agreement to gradually roll back production cuts next month, with global stockpiles of coal and natural gas running low before the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, November WTI futures were $0.41 higher near $80.96 bbl, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract advanced $0.30 to $83.93 bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures softened 0.31 cents to $2.5119 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures added 0.52 cents to $2.3831 gallon. WTI settled above $80 bbl on Monday for the first time since November 2014 as a growing power crisis in European Union and Asia boosted demand for gas-to-oil substitution. Bank of America commodity team estimates that in a sustained switching scenario, a global oil market supply deficit this winter could easily exceed 2 million bpd with top line demand pushed up by 1 to 2 million barrels per day (bpd), driven primarily by Asian fuel burning capacity. Despite promised production increases, market participants doubt the capacity of Russia's Gazprom to rapidly increase gas flows into both the EU and China, with the country's gas production in September having reached a decade-high. Furthermore, structural constraints including domestic storage needs and a fire at Gazprom's Urengoy processing facility have further undermined the outlook for increased gas exports. There are some signs that OPEC+ could increase production faster-than-expected this winter, with private surveys showing that countries that were unable to meet their quotas in the previous months, namely Kazakhstan, Nigeria, and Angola, compensated for supply shortfalls in September. According to private surveys, 23-nation coalition raised crude production by 650,000 bpd in September to 36.51 million bpd, driven by a rebound in Nigeria's output after resumption of loading activities at the Forcados terminal on Sept. 8. The Forcados terminal's export outlet was under force majeure in August, limiting supply. Even so, analysts estimate Nigeria is pumping almost 100,000 bpd less than its OPEC target as underinvestment restrains output.
OPEC trims 2021 demand forecast but says gas price surge could help - (Reuters) - OPEC has trimmed its world oil demand growth forecast for 2021 while maintaining its 2022 view, its monthly report showed on Wednesday, but it said surging natural gas prices could boost demand for oil products as end users switch. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) now expects oil demand to grow by 5.82 million barrels per day, (bpd), down from 5.96 million bpd in its previous forecast, saying that the downward revision was mainly driven by data for the first three quarters of the year. It maintained a growth forecast of 4.2 million bpd for next year. The group of oil-producing countries said, however, that natural gas prices at record highs could provide a potential boost to oil demand growth as industrial users switch to oil products instead. "Should this trend continue, fuels such as fuel oil, diesel, and naphtha could see support, driven by higher demand for power generation, refining and petrochemical use," OPEC said. European gas at the Dutch TTF hub on Wednesday stood at a crude oil equivalent of about $177 a barrel, based on the relative value of the same amount of energy from each source, Reuters calculations based on Eikon data showed – higher than the record high Brent crude price of $147 in 2008. Brent crude prices stood at about $83 a barrel by 1500 GMT. At an industry event on Tuesday Russian President Vladimir Putin said oil prices could reach $100 a barrel but added that OPEC+ was doing its utmost to stabilise the global market. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser last week put the demand boost from the gas-to-oil switch at about 500,000 bpd. OPEC+, an alliance between OPEC and other producers led by Russia, this month agreed to stick with its plan for a 400,000 bpd production increase for November as it gradually unwinds output cuts it made to support previously low prices. In its report, OPEC raised its forecast for 2021 demand for OPEC crude oil by 100,000 bpd to 27.8 million bpd and by another 100,000 bpd for 2022 to 28.8 million bpd. It said that OPEC's output in September rose by about 490,000 bpd to 27.33 million bpd, according to secondary sources. In a sign of a tightening oil market, OPEC said that OECD commercial oil inventories fell by 19.5 million barrels in August from the previous month to 2.855 billion barrels, according to preliminary data. This figure is 183 million barrels below the latest five-year average and 131 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average, OPEC said.
Oil prices settle mixed as IMF trims global growth outlook (Xinhua) -- Oil prices ended mixed on Tuesday as the International Monetary Fund ((IMF) cut its outlook for global growth. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November delivery added 12 cents to settle at 80.64 U.S. dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery decreased 23 cents to close at 83.42 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange.The above moves came as the IMF on Tuesday projected that the global economy would grow by 5.9 percent in 2021, down by 0.1 percentage point from July's forecast, according to the latest World Economic Outlook.Meanwhile, tight market situation brought about by robust demand and limited supply continue to lend buoyancy to oil prices.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, last week decided to step up its oil production only gradually."For as long as OPEC+ appears unwilling to counter this by expanding its oil production to a greater extent, this is unlikely to change, and oil prices are likely to continue rising," Carsten Fritsch, energy analyst at Commerzbank Research, said Tuesday in a note.
WTI Shrugs At Mixed Inventory Data: Crude Build, Gasoline Draw - Oil prices were flat today after accelerating up to multi-year highs late last week and early this week as OPEC sounded a cautious note on the strength of oil demand (trimming its forecast for 2021 demand growth to 5.8mm b/d, down from its previous projection of 5.96mm b/d), while EIA raised its price forecasts for 2022.“Despite positive assumptions on oil demand going into the final quarter of the year, supported by seasonal petrochemical and heating fuel demand as well as the potential of switching from natural gas to oil,” actual data on consumption earlier in the year was weaker than expected, OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat said in the report.It advised producers “to maintain a vigilant watch over market fundamentals.”However, the next leg one way or the other will likely be triggered by the latest inventory data as analysts expected a 3rd weekly build in a row for crude, throwing some cold water on the recovery/demand hype.API
- Crude +5.213mm (+900k exp)
- Cushing -2.275mm
- Gasoline -4.575mm (+600k exp)
- Distillates -2.707mm (-1.1mm exp)
A big build in crude stocks was offset from a market perspective by the big gasoline draw in the prior week...
$100 oil is 'quite possible,' Russia's Putin says- Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that oil prices could well reach $100 per barrel as demand for all energy commodities grows. Energy prices have soared across the board as economies reopen after months of Covid pandemic-induced lockdowns and supply remains tight. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, crossed $80 per barrel last week for the first time since November 2014. But Putin, leader of one of the world's biggest oil-producing nations, believes it can go even higher. When asked if WTI could reach $100 per barrel, he said, "That is quite possible." Speaking to CNBC's Hadley Gamble at an event in Moscow, Putin, however, said that Russia and other oil-producing countries are doing their utmost to bring some stabilization to the market. "Russia and our partners and OPEC+ group, I would say we are doing everything possible to make sure the oil market stabilizes. We are trying not to allow any shock peaks in prices. We certainly do not want to have that — it is not in our interests," he said, according to a translation. Earlier this month, OPEC and allied nonmember nations, known as OPEC+, decided to keep their stance by not stepping up production, despite pressure from other nations. The OPEC+ group is meeting regularly to discuss its policies amid a volatile energy market.
Oil Futures Ease on Weak Eurozone Industrials Ahead of CPI -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange declined in early trade Wednesday after data from European Union showed industrial production in the single-currency area fell sharply at the end of the third quarter, pressured by supply-chain bottlenecks and a record run in electricity prices, while investors turned cautious ahead of a key reading on U.S. inflation that could provide additional clues on the economy's growth rate in September.U.S. consumer price index for September will likely show rising energy and food costs have pushed up the headline inflation reading to 0.4% last month, a slightly faster pace than core CPI at 0.3%. Global supply shortages and surging commodity prices are seen lifting inflation across all sectors of the economy.Ahead of the data's release later Wednesday morning, U.S. dollar weakened 0.26% against a basket of foreign currencies to trade near 94.265, although failed to lift front-month West Texas Intermediate futures in overnight trading. November WTI declined $0.53 from a seven-year high $80.64 per barrel (bbl) settlement on Tuesday, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract for December delivery eased $0.56 to trade just below $83 bbl. NYMEX ULSD November contract fell 1.37 cents to $2.4964 gallon, and front-month RBOB eased 1.4 cents to $2.3689 gallon. Internationally, industrial production in the euro area slid 1.6% in August after a 1.5% surge in July pressured by supply-chain bottlenecks and record run in electricity prices, according to Eurostat data released early morning Wednesday. Details of the report show that production of capital goods fell 3.9%, durable consumer goods by 3.4%, intermediate goods by 1.5% and nondurable consumer goods by 0.8%, while production of energy rose by 0.5% in the month of August. The readings show supply and capacity constraints are weighing on factory output, so analysts expect more sluggishness to follow in the months ahead. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast, citing supply chain challenges and a persistent COVID-19 pandemic in parts of the global economy. "We're seeing major supply disruptions around the world that are also feeding inflationary pressures, which are quite high and financial risk taking also is increasing, which poses an additional risk to the outlook," IMF economist Gita Gopinath said in a releasing the assessment. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, labor shortages, production bottlenecks and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will shave 0.2% off U.S. growth this year for a 5.6% growth rate, with the investment bank projecting the U.S. economy to expand by 4% in 2022. Separately, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released their Monthly Oil Market Report this morning estimating global oil demand growth this year slowed to 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from 5.96 million bpd. The downward revision is mainly driven by lower-than-expected data for the first three quarters of this year, despite healthy oil demand assumptions for the fourth quarter, which OPEC assumes will be supported by a seasonal uptick in petrochemical and heating fuel demand and the potential switch from natural gas to petroleum products due to high gas prices.
WTI Slides After Biggest Crude Build Since March - Oil prices are higher this morning after a mixed picture from API (big crude build offset by big gasoline draw) and helped by comments from IEA that shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for crude. DOE:
- Crude +6.008mm (+900k exp)
- Cushing -1.968mm
- Gasoline -1.958mm (+600k exp)
- Distillates -24k (-1.1mm exp)
Crude stocks rose by the most since March last week - the 3rd weekly build in a row - but the draw in gasoline and distillates was modest...(see graphs) National crude inventories are now sitting at the highest since August. US Crude production continued to rebound, almost back to pre-IDA levels... WTI hovered around $81.20 ahead of the official DOE print but slid back below $81 on the big crude build...
Oil Futures Down In Steady Trading On OPEC Demand Concerns | Rigzone - Oil closed lower as traders assessed OPEC’s skepticism around the strength of crude demand even after prices hit the highest since 2014. Futures in New York fell 0.3% on Wednesday after trading little changed for most of the afternoon. OPEC revised down its estimate for 2021 global oil consumption in its monthly market report. The group said that while the spike in natural gas prices could boost petroleum use in some areas, such as power generation, it could potentially curb demand in other areas, such as refining. Meanwhile, the U.S. government boosted its crude price forecasts for next year by nearly $6 a barrel. While crude futures have shown some signs of fatigue, “the trend is still clearly bullish and requires a macro driver to turn the tide,” said Fawad Razaqzada, financial market analyst at ThinkMarkets. Crude has surged this year as a rebound in activity from the pandemic has boosted consumption, depleting inventories. In addition, shortages of natural gas and coal have driven rising demand for alternative power generation and heating fuels in Asia and Europe ahead of the winter. In fact, oil prices may even spike to over $100 a barrel because of fuel switching, according to Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch. However, in the near-term, West Texas Intermediate crude may see some selling pressure if prices fall below $79.30 a barrel. Any dips in price until crude hits the $76.50-a-barrel level will likely be viewed as a buying opportunity by traders, according to Razaqzada. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell 20 cents to settle at $80.44 a barrel in New York. Brent for December settlement dropped 24 cents to end the session at $83.18 a barrel. The Energy Information Administration boosted its forecast for annual average WTI and Brent prices in 2022 by $5.87 to $68.24/bbl and $71.91 a barrel, respectively, according to the agency’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Wednesday. The agency also warned that spending on energy for those households primarily using heating oil will rise 43% compared with last winter, according to its Winter Fuels Outlook report. Meanwhile, OPEC’s estimate for global oil demand growth this year was reduced to 5.8 million barrels a day, down from 5.96 million barrels a day previously. The change was due to lower consumption data in the first nine months of the year, while total fourth-quarter demand was revised up by 120,000 barrels a day to 99.82 million barrels a day.
IEA Says Gas Crisis Spilling Over Into Oil Markets - Shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for oil, deepening what was already a sizable supply deficit in crude markets, the International Energy Agency said. Crude has surged above $80 a barrel, the highest in three years, as traders anticipated that record gas prices would stimulate consumption of other fuels, particularly for power generation. That’s already happening and could add about 500,000 barrels a day to oil use on average over the coming six months, the IEA said on Thursday. “An acute shortage of natural gas, LNG and coal supplies stemming from the gathering global economic recovery has sparked a precipitous run-up in prices for energy supplies and is triggering a massive switch to oil products,” the IEA said. “Provisional August data already indicates that there is some unseasonably high demand for fuel oil, crude and middle distillates for power plants across a number of countries, including China.” The latest analysis from the agency, which advises industrialized countries on energy policy, shows how the acute shortage of natural gas is spilling over into other markets and the broader economy. The crisis is deepening the current oil-supply deficit, potentially disrupting OPEC’s careful plan to gradually revive idle production. It’s roiling energy-intensive industries and threatens to curb GDP growth and boost inflation. Brent crude rose 0.9% to $83.95 a barrel as of 9:21 a.m. in London, bringing the increase for the week to almost 2%. The IEA raised its estimate for demand growth this year by 300,000 barrels a day to 5.5 million barrels a day, and increased it slightly for 2022 to 3.3 million barrels a day. The effect of oil-gas switching will mostly be felt this quarter and next, the agency said. The gas crisis isn’t entirely a net positive for oil consumption. The increase in the IEA’s demand estimates was tempered by a weaker outlook for GDP resulting mainly from supply-chain issues and rising energy costs. “The surge in prices has swept through the entire global energy chain,” the IEA said. “Higher energy prices are also adding to inflationary pressures that, along with power outages, could lead to lower industrial activity and a slowdown in the economic recovery.” The agency noted that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies stuck to their plan to boost production by 400,000 barrels a day “despite calls from major consuming countries for a more substantial increase.” OPEC+ showed no signs of deviating from its plan. Speaking at Russian Energy Week in Moscow, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reiterated his commitment to a gradual and phased revival of idle supply. The crisis engulfing other energy markets shows what a good job the group has done in regulating oil, he said. Global oil production will rise by about 2.7 million barrels a day from September to the end of the year as OPEC+ continues to unwind its cuts and U.S. output recovers from the damage caused by Hurricane Ida, the IEA said. Even with those additions, the market will be in a supply deficit of about 700,000 barrels a day for the rest of this year, before flipping back into surplus in early 2022, the IEA said.
Oil prices climb on upgrade to IEA demand forecast (Reuters) - Oil prices rose by about 1% on Thursday after the International Energy Agency said that record natural gas prices would boost demand for oil and top oil producer Saudi Arabia dismissed calls for additional OPEC+ supply. Brent crude futures gained 89 cents, or 1.1%, to $84.07 a barrel by 1204 GMT after falling 0.3% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 87 cents, or 1.1%, to $81.31, more than recouping the previous day's 0.3% decline. Oil demand is set to jump by half a million barrels per day (bpd) as the power sector and heavy industries switch from other more expensive sources of energy, the IEA said, warning that the energy crunch could stoke inflation and slow the world's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. read more In its monthly report, the IEA increased its global oil demand growth forecast by 170,000 bpd to 5.5 million bpd for 2021 and by 210,000 bpd to 3.3 million bpd for 2022. The agency now expects total oil demand in 2022 to reach 99.6 million bpd, slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia dismissed calls for additional OPEC+ production increases, saying its efforts with allies are sufficient and serving to protect the oil market from the wild price swings seen in natural gas and coal markets. read more The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, have done a "remarkable" job acting as so-called regulator of the oil market, Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a forum in Moscow on Thursday. At its meeting earlier this month, OPEC+ stuck to its previous agreement to increase output by 400,000 bpd a month as it unwinds production cuts. A larger than expected fall in U.S. fuel stocks also boosted prices on Thursday. The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Wednesday that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 5.2 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 8, but gasoline inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels and distillate stocks declined by 2.7 million barrels, according to market sources who saw the API data.
Goldman Sachs says oil prices could be higher for much longer - Oil prices could stay at higher levels in the years to come as demand rebounds while supply remains tight, according to Goldman Sachs' head of energy research. Damien Courvalin, who is also a senior commodity strategist, said the market fundamentals warrant higher prices and that the bank's forecast for Brent crude is $85 per barrel for the next several years. "This is not a transient winter shock like it could be for gas. This is actually the beginning of a material repricing higher for oil," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Thursday. Goldman Sachs' base case is for Brent to hit $90 per barrel by the end of the year. U.S. crude futures were up 1.26% at $81.45 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude futures gained 1.24% to trade at $84.21 per barrel on Thursday afternoon in Asia. The oil market is in "the longest deficit we've seen in decades," and demand will continue to outstrip supply in winter, said Courvalin. The lack of upstream investment in oil supply while demand grows points to "sustained high prices" at least in the year ahead, he added. What's happening in the coal market — where prices are at record highs because supply shrank faster than demand — is a "warning sign" for oil, Courvalin said. Oil drilling activity hasn't recovered much on the supply side, while demand is growing, he said, describing the market as being in an "entrenched deficit." "We're facing potential multi-year deficits and the risk of significantly higher prices," he said. There needs to be a realization that the transition to cleaner energy will take a long time, and that calls to stop investing in hydrocarbon supply will only create "much higher energy prices in the coming years," he said. Despite oil futures climbing more than 60% this year and hitting multi-year highs, Courvalin said oil producers haven't increased supply. "Demand is rebounding further and we need to really start to see that investment," he said. Shale producers, however, are focused on returning cash to shareholders. "That's the key of the sustainability of higher prices," he said, adding that he sees oil demand hitting new record highs in 2022 and 2023. "The fundamentals actually very much support the view of higher prices than we've seen, pretty much since 2014," he said.
Oil Futures Gain as Demand Outlook Counters Inflation Worry-- In early trading during the last session of the week, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange are again rallying on shortages of natural gas and coal supplies globally that could add 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global oil demand over the coming months, while accelerating inflation signals out of China, European Union, and the United States capped market upside ahead of the release of key economic data domestically. China's producers price index rose 10.7% from a year earlier in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the biggest rise since the agency started compiling the data in 1996. That follows a 9.5% increase in August and 9% hike in July, suggesting consistent inflationary pressures from rising commodity prices and production curbs. Consumer inflation eased in September to 0.7% from 0.8% in August amid signs of weakening domestic demand and decline in volatile food prices. The divergence between the two inflation gauges presents a policy dilemma for Beijing that must balance propping up consumer demand against rising producer prices. Domestically, there are signs a tightening labor market is putting upward pressure on wages, as employers try to hang onto current employees or bring in new staff, adding to immediate inflationary pressures in the broader economy. In the latest employment report, U.S. Labor Department said wages increased by an average 19 cents to $30.85 in September, following large gains in the prior five months. Meanwhile, job growth has slowed notably during that month to just 194,000 compared with at least 450,000 new jobs expected. U.S. consumer price index -- a gauge for inflation -- rose 5.4% in September from a year earlier, the same rate as in June and July, and slightly higher than in August. The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, in September climbed 4% from a year earlier, the same rate as in August. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said in a recent interview that the case for inflation to dissipate over the next six months has weakened considerably, adding that current high levels of core CPI is "concerning." His comments were echoed by Philadelphia Federal Reserve official Patrick Harker who suggested the central bank to start tapering its $120 billion a month in asset purchases as early as next month. Federal Open Market Committee will next meet on Nov. 2-3, with consensus among officials growing for the central bank to make its tapering announcement.
Oil prices rise to three-year high on back of supply deficit forecasts – CNA - Oil prices settled at a three-year high above US$85 a barrel on Friday, boosted by forecasts of a supply deficit in the next few months as the easing of coronavirus-related travel restrictions spurs demand. Brent crude futures settled up 86 cents, or 1per cent, at US$84.86 a barrel. Front-month prices, which touched their highest level since October 2018 at US$85.10, hit a weekly rise of 3per cent, its sixth straight weekly gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 97 cents, or 1.2per cent, to US$82.28 a barrel. The was up 3.5per cent on the week in an eighth consecutive weekly rise. Demand has picked up with the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, with a further boost from power generators who have been turning away from expensive gas and coal to fuel oil and diesel. The White House said it will lift COVID-19 travel restrictions for fully vaccinated foreign nationals effective Nov. 8, which should boost jet fuel demand. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in oil stockpiles in the United States and the member countries of the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is expected to keep global supply tight. "It will take a trifecta of events to derail this oil price rally: OPEC+ unexpectedly boosts output, warm weather hits the Northern Hemisphere, and if the Biden administration taps the strategic petroleum reserves," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a sixth week in a row as soaring crude oil prices prompted drillers to return to the wellpad. The U.S. oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose 10 to 543 in the week to Oct. 15, its highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report on Friday. The International Energy Agency on Thursday said the energy crunch is expected to boost oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). That would result in a supply gap of around 700,000 bpd through the end of this year, until the Organization of the Petroleum Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, add more supply, as planned in January.
Oil futures finish higher, with prices up an 8th straight week - Oil prices extended their rise to multiyear highs on Friday, with U.S. and global benchmark crude scoring an eighth weekly gain in a row -- the longest such streak of gains for a front-month Brent contract in over two decades. Prices found support from expectations that global power producers will look to use oil, in place of natural gas and coal, amid shortages. Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, gave back Thursday's gain and then some, with prices down by nearly 5% Friday -- pulling prices lower for the week. "A massive shortage of coal and natural gas in Asia and Europe has left the power plants reluctantly having to choose crude oil over natural gas -- a pattern not seen for at least a decade," "This is a stark reversal of the foregone conclusion of natural gas being the preferred fuel for power generation worldwide," he said. "The current trend is so astonishing that energy analysts had even stopped modeling the possibility of using crude oil for power generation; yet here we are amidst this energy crisis." And "the increased oil demand from power producers further squeezes the already tight crude supplies," said Raj. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose 97 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $82.28 a barrel, with front-month prices marking their highest finish since Oct. 21, 2014, according to Dow Jones Market Data. December Brent, the global benchmark, rose 86 cents, or 1%, to $84.86 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe after hitting a session high above $85. Prices ended the session at their highest since Oct. 9, 2018. Brent crude saw a weekly rise of 3%, up an eighth week in a row. That was the longest weekly streak of gains since the week ended April 30, 1999, according to Dow Jones Market Data. WTI, the U.S. benchmark, was up about 3.7% for the week, also up an eighth straight week -- the longest weekly winning streak since the week ended Aug. 20, 2004. . "So long as coal and natural gas shortage persists in Europe and Asia, crude oil prices have nowhere else to go but up." Even if oil prices climb over $100, "crude oil would be more economical than [natural] gas, therefore exerting upward pressure to oil prices," he said. Oil prices surged Thursday after the International Energy Agency noted a "massive" switch to crude by power generators as natural gas, liquefied natural gas and coal supplies shortages drag on. Prices finished below the session's best levels after U.S. government data showed a third-straight weekly rise in domestic crude inventories, the biggest since March. On Friday, data from Baker Hughes (BKR) suggested that increases in U.S. oil production are ahead, with the number of active U.S. oil drilling rigs up 12 at 445 this week, climbing for a sixth consecutive week. Meanwhile, November gasoline edged up by 2.1% to $2.486 a gallon, gaining 5.1% for the week, while November heating oil added 0.5% to $2.574 a gallon, for a weekly rise of 4%. November natural gas declined by 4.9% to $5.41 per million British thermal units, sending prices down 2.8% for the week.
Saudi Arabia .. “Bikini” and dance parties on a beach in Jeddah - Saudi young woman Asma can now spend the weekend with her boyfriend at a beach on the Red Sea coast in Jeddah, and even dance with him to the tunes of music at a night party on the sand that provides a “fun” time for the goers. “I am glad that I can come to a nearby beach and enjoy my time with various games and activities,” the 32-year-old told AFP, who wore a blue shirt over her wet swimsuit. Asma, who has dyed part of her hair yellow, said the experience provides “the ultimate in fun…a dream that we come here for a beautiful weekend” in the city that she knows is the most open in the country. Since Mohammed bin Salman, son of Saudi King Salman, became crown prince in 2017, the wealthy kingdom has undergone radical economic, social and religious reforms. Women were allowed to drive, music concerts were allowed, and the ban on mixing between men and women was ended. The powers of the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice were reduced and the Mutawwa’in disappeared from the streets. But these changes were also accompanied by a crackdown on critics, journalists, and opponents, especially human rights activists. The “Pure Beach” beach in King Abdullah Economic City (about 125 km south of Jeddah in the west of the country), which opened last August, provides a new and only experience in the kingdom, which has been known for decades to be very conservative. By day, patrons use the beach with unrestricted turquoise water and white sand, with women allowed to wear bikinis, smoke shisha, and have pets. Dance parties on Pure Beach in King Abdullah Economic City After sunset, Western music blares loudly from a stage set in the sand. In front of the stage, two lovers were dancing quietly, not caring about those dancing around them, among them a young man dancing topless, and another dancing in a short blue dress. Beach officials are not sure of the existence of a marriage relationship between every couple of the visitors, but they confiscate mobile phones and put them in plastic stockings to preserve the “privacy” of the visitors of the place, according to an official at the place. Asma stressed that “life has become normal” in Saudi Arabia because “it was not like that before.”
Lebanon suffers 24-hour blackout, food poisoning, business closures amid fuel crisis -- Lebanon suffered a total power outage over the weekend, leaving its population of 6 million without centrally generated electricity for 24 hours. The state electricity company said in a statement that the shutdown of the country's two main power stations, due to fuel shortages, had "directly affected the stability of the power network and led to its complete outage, with no possibility of resuming operations in the meantime." Power returned late Sunday after the central bank granted the energy ministry $100 million in credit to buy fuel and keep its plants operating. Officials had warned the outage was likely to last several days. The crisis is creating a nightmare for the country's residents, but has been a long time in the making. Gas shortages might sound familiar — the U.K. and the rest of Europe are in the throes of a mounting fuel crisis, which has induced panic-buying and erratic behavior among many who had never imagined facing such shortages. But for Lebanon, the same problem has been a reality for months — it's just another battle in the long list of crises that have left the country with multiple daily power outages, a banking and economic crisis, food shortages, overwhelmed hospitals, and a spiraling currency relying on volatile black market exchange rates. Walking through the capital Beirut — a once-thriving city often called the "Paris of the Middle East" — at any time of day, one can see shopfronts closed or operating in darkness, with those lucky enough to have access to fuel relying on backup generators to keep the lights on. When the power is out, many shopkeepers will refuse to sell anything but water, as the volatile minute-by-minute changes in the value of the Lebanese lira mean the price of goods can shift from one period of power to the next. And hundreds of businesses destroyed in the devastating Beirut Port explosion of August 2020 are permanently gone. With little help from the state, gutted bars and other businesses with their entrances blown open and innards full of debris remain fixtures on streets all over the city. "It's catastrophic," Rabih Daou, a small grocery store owner in Beirut's Geitawy district, told CNBC in late September from his shop, darkened during one of the country's many daily power outages. He pointed to empty refrigerator shelves, where only one small fridge was running, holding a few dairy products. "We cannot buy a lot of things. We cannot buy cheese and ham, we have to buy them by small pieces, because we don't always have electricity, and the people are always afraid," he added.
US to give humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, Taliban say - The United States has agreed to provide humanitarian aid to a desperately poor Afghanistan on the brink of an economic disaster, but refused to give political recognition to the country’s new rulers, the Taliban said on Sunday. The statement came at the end of the first direct talks between the former foes since the chaotic withdrawal of US troops at the end of August. The US statement was less definitive, saying only that the two sides “discussed the United States’ provision of robust humanitarian assistance, directly to the Afghan people”. The talks came as the US and Britain warned their citizens on Sunday night to stay away from hotels in the capital, Kabul, particularly the well-known Serena. “US citizens who are at or near the Serena hotel should leave immediately,” the US State Department said, citing security threats in the area. In an update to its advice not to travel to Afghanistan, the UK Foreign Office said: “In light of the increased risks you are advised not to stay in hotels, particularly in Kabul (such as the Serena Hotel).” The Serena is the best-known luxury hotel in Kabul, popular with foreign visitors before the city fell to the Taliban eight weeks ago. Australian soldiers Sapper James Martin, Lance Corporal Stjepan Milosevic, and Private Robert were killed as they played cards at a patrol base north of Tarin Kowt in August 2012. The Taliban said the talks held in Doha, Qatar, “went well”, with Washington freeing up humanitarian aid to Afghanistan after agreeing not to link such assistance to formal recognition of the Taliban. The United States made it clear that the talks were in no way a preamble to recognition of the Taliban, which swept into power on 15 August after the US-allied government collapsed. State department spokesman Ned Price called the discussions “candid and professional”, with the US reiterating that the Taliban would be judged on their actions rather than their words.
Soaring Prices of Imported LNG Threaten Pakistan's Economic Recovery --Soaring LNG prices are adversely affecting Pakistan's balance of payments and threatening the nation's post-COVID economic recovery. Pakistan's trade deficit has widened to nearly $12 billion in July-September 2021 quarter, up more than 100% from the same period last year. The nation's heavy reliance on expensive imported energy has been the main cause of prior balance of payments crises that have forced it to seek IMF bailouts more than a dozen times in the last 70 years. The average LNG price for November delivery into Northeast Asia was estimated at about $32 per metric million British thermal units (mmBtu), up nearly 20 percent from the previous week, according to the Peninsula Qatar publication. Price agency S&P Global Platts said on Thursday that its Japan-Korea-Marker, which is widely used as a benchmark for spot LNG contracts, rose to $34.47 per mmBtu. Rising LNG prices have forced power generating companies in Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Middle East to start switching fuels pushing oil prices higher. US crude closed above $80 for the first time since late in 2014, bringing its climb since the end of last October to 125%, according to the Wall Street Journal. The key to Pakistan managing its current accounts lies in reducing reliance on imported energy and dramatically increasing its exports. Pakistan already faces climate change pressures forcing it to change its energy mix to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Malik Amin Aslam, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan's special assistant on climate change, said recently in an interview with CNN that his country is seeking to change its energy mix to favor green. He said Pakistan's 60% renewable energy target would to be based on solar, wind and hydro power projects, and 40% would come from hydrocarbon and nuclear which is also low-carbon. “Nuclear power has to be part of the country’s energy mix for future as a zero energy emission source for clean and green future,” he concluded
Beijing Is Trapped: China Producer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace In 26 Years - China’s factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in almost 26 years in September, adding to global inflation risks and putting pressure on local businesses to start passing on higher costs to consumers. The producer price index climbed 10.7% from a year earlier, the highest since November 1995, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Thursday, far higher than the 9.5% gain in August and hotter than the 10.5% expected.On the other hand, consumer prices rose 0.7% last month from a year earlier, lower than a 0.8% gain in the previous month., but Bloomberg notes that for now consumer inflation remains in check because of falling pork prices, even though the removal of most virus controls by the end of September may have helped to boost household spending.“The widened gap between PPI and CPI means greater pressure for upstream sectors to pass on rising costs to the downstream,” said Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategy research at China Renaissance Securities Hong Kong.And, as we previously warned, the situation is about to get much, much more serious. If the historical correlation between Coal prices and PPI holds, were may be soon looking at a tripling of China's PPI, which from 10.7% Y/Y in September, is about to soar to 30% or more. Needless to say, if Chinese PPI does hit 30%+, even if CPI somehow stay in the single digits, the results would be catastrophic: profit margins would collapse, the plunge in already thin cash flows would lead to even more defaults and supply chain bottlenecks, even as the scramble to obtain commodities "at any price" keeps pushing costs - and PPI - even higher.Meanwhile, if producers do try to pass on some of the costs and CPI spikes (the gap between CPI and PPI was already at record wide before the recent surge in coal prices) as it did in the early 90s...then Beijing will have social unrest on its hands.There are early signs that producers are starting to pass on higher costs to consumers: the largest soy sauce maker in the country said this week it plans to raise retail prices of its products. At least 13 companies listed on China’s A-share market have announced price hikes this year to address rising costs and tight supply, China Securities Journal reported Thursday.And all this is happening as China's property sector desperately needs a massive liquidity infusion which is - you guessed it - inflationary.And while China may be facing its first "galloping inflation" PPI print since the early 90s, it's only downhill from there, because as Citigroup wrote over the weekend, power cuts (with over 20 provinces, making up >2/3 of China’s GDP, have rolled out electricity-rationing measures since August) and contractionary PMI "seem to suggest China could enter into at least a short period of stagflation."
North Korea's Kim notes 'grim' economy while marking anniversary of ruling party -North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Sunday warned officials of his country's "grim" economic state during celebrations to mark the 76th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea. Reuters reported Kim told officials to concentrate on improving the living conditions of North Koreans, saying in a speech that the isolationist country faces "huge tasks for adjusting and developing the state economy." "The only way for dynamically pushing forward the unprecedented crucial work despite grim situation is for the entire Party to get united," he added. The North Korean leader reportedly cautioned officials against desiring privileges and said they "should always consider whether their work infringe upon the interests of the people or cause trouble to the people." The country marked the anniversary of the ruling party's founding with galas and fireworks shows, though Reuters noted that no military parades were reported to have been held. State-run media showed young people attending galas and laying flowers at statues of previous leaders. Earlier this year in April, Kim issued a similar warning, telling citizens that the country could face difficult times like it saw during the 1990s when it endured famines. Human Right Watch senior researcher Lina Yoon wrote a report in March detailing the food shortages that North Korea is currently facing. “There is barely any food going into the country from China for almost two months now,” one missionary who helps North Korans told Yoon. “There are so many more beggars, some people died from hunger in the border area and there’s no soap, toothpaste, or batteries.” Kim's warning on Sunday comes less than a week after Reuters reported that North Korea's most vulnerable are at risk of starvation brought on by the country's COVID-19 isolation and international sanctions. These warnings were made in a report from United Nations rights investigator Tomas Ojea Quintana seen by Reuters. Quintana recommended that U.N. sanctions on North Korea be lifted to relieve starvation risks. "Sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council should be reviewed and eased when necessary to both facilitate humanitarian and lifesaving assistance and to enable the promotion of the right to an adequate standard of living of ordinary citizens," Quintana wrote, according to Reuters.
Soaring food prices drive hunger around the world - The 2021 Global Hunger Index (GHI), published on Thursday, revealed soaring levels of hunger among the poor and working populations around the globe. The foreword stated that the report “points to a dire hunger situation, a result of the toxic cocktail of the climate crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and increasingly severe and protracted conflicts.” Rising food prices are a critical contributing factor in the growth of world hunger over the past year. Rapidly mounting inflation and the disruption of the supply chain networks of global capitalism are driving up the prices of all basic consumer goods. The U.S. Energy Information Authority reported that nearly half of all US households who use natural gas to heat their homes will pay an average of 30 to 50 percent more this winter for heating than last year. Real hourly earnings for American workers have fallen 1.9 percent since January. Workers in countries around the globe confront a similar situation, one that has become unlivable. Increasingly unable to pay rent, purchase adequate food, obtain fuel, they are being driven into struggle. They confront a social system, capitalism, that exploits them, overworks them, and then leaves them without the basic necessities of life. The producers of the world’s goods find themselves without the means of survival. Nowhere is this more palpable than with the skyrocketing levels of world hunger. The GHI report on hunger appears a week after the United Nations held a high-level event, Action in Support of Preventing and Ending Famine Now. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Director-General Qu Dongyu told the assembly, “Today we face unprecedented food crises on multiple fronts. Starvation and hunger-related deaths are a present reality. ... As we near the end of 2021, the situation has continued to deteriorate.” The report stated that hunger remained at “serious, alarming, or extremely alarming levels in nearly 50 countries” and noted that “after decades of decline, the global prevalence of undernourishment ... is increasing.” Three factors, according to the GHI, drive the rising levels of world hunger, which have driven 41 million people to “the very edge of famine”—“conflict, climate change, and the economic devastation brought on by Covid-19.” Fueled by inflation and the economic dislocation caused by the pandemic, world food prices are soaring. The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), which measures change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, reported in September that prices were 32.8 percent higher than they had been a year prior. The prices of the most basic staples rose even more sharply; wheat was up 41 percent and maize 38 percent from September 2020. These figures contain immense misery. According to an article published in Nature Food in July, three billion people could not afford a healthy diet before the pandemic. Soaring food prices, and rising prices of consumer goods generally, have markedly worsened the situation. While 43 percent of the world’s population could not afford a healthy diet prior to COVID-19, by the end of 2020 the numbers had risen to 50 percent. A 32 percent rise in the price of food has a profound impact on the poor. In underdeveloped countries, a majority of the population will spend somewhere from 40 to 60 percent of household income on food. The poorest 20 percent of the population in the United States spent from 30 to 40 percent of household income on food. Rising prices either mean an inability to pay rent and other expenses or cuts in the quality and overall calories of the food consumed.
The global supply chain nightmare is about to get worse - Computer chip shortages. Epic port congestion. And a serious lack of truck drivers. The world's delicate supply chains are under extreme stress.The supply chain nightmare is jacking up prices for consumers and slowing the global economic recovery. Unfortunately, Moody's Analytics warns supply chain disruptions "will get worse before they get better.""As the global economic recovery continues to gather steam, what is increasingly apparent is how it will be stymied by supply-chain disruptions that are now showing up at every corner," Moody's wrote in a Monday report. Indeed, the IMF downgraded its 2021 US growth forecast on Tuesday by one percentage point, the most for any G7 economy. The IMF cited supply chain disruptions and weakening consumption — which itself has been partially driven by supply chain bottlenecks such as a lack of new cars amid the computer chip shortage."Border controls and mobility restrictions, unavailability of a global vaccine pass, and pent-up demand from being stuck at home have combined for a perfect storm where global production will be hampered because deliveries are not made in time, costs and prices will rise and GDP growth worldwide will not be as robust as a result," Moody's wrote in the report. Moody's said the "weakest link" may be the shortage of truck drivers — an issue that has contributed to congestion at ports and caused gas stations in the United Kingdom to run dry. Unfortunately, Moody's warned there are "dark clouds ahead" because several factors make overcoming the supply constraints particularly challenging.First, the firm pointed to differences in how countries are fighting Covid, with China aiming for zero cases while the United States is "more willing to live with Covid-19 as an endemic disease.""This presents a serious challenge to harmonizing the rules and regulations by which transport workers move in and out of ports and hubs around the world," the analysts wrote.Secondly, Moody's cited the lack of a "concerted global effort to ensure the smooth operation" of the worldwide logistics and transportation network.Others are much more optimistic on the supply chain outlook.JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that these supply chain hiccups will fade quickly."This will not be an issue next year at all," Dimon said during a conference held by the Institute of International Finance, CNBC reported. "This is the worst part of it. I think great market systems will adjust for it like companies have."
Workers in Vietnam forced to work to maintain profits of US companies - A revealing article in the New York Times last month gave some insight into the way in which US corporations dictate the conditions under which the lives of workers around the globe are sacrificed for capitalist profit. “Retailers’ Latest Headache: Shutdowns at Their Vietnamese Suppliers,” by Sapna Maheshwari and Patricia Cohen, published on September 29, details how COVID shutdowns in the Southeast Asian country are affecting apparel and footwear supplies to US retailers as they head into their “all-important holiday season.” Vietnam is the second-biggest supplier of apparel and footwear to the US after China. The pandemic, however, has forced many Vietnamese factories to close or operate at reduced capacity. American firms are facing disruptions of supplies, along with higher prices from shortages, labour restrictions and skyrocketing shipping costs. One US retailer, Everlane, told the Times it was facing delays of four to eight weeks, depending on when factories it worked with in Vietnam had closed. Nike cut its sales forecast last month, citing the loss of 10 weeks of production since mid-July. Vietnam supplies 40 percent of Everlane’s stocks, along with brands such as Gap and Old Navy, while the country’s contract factories manufactured 51 percent of Nike’s footwear last year. Acutely concerned about the threat to profits, US businesses are ramping up political pressure in both Washington and Vietnam. Executives from 90 companies, including Nike and Fruit of the Loom, wrote to the Biden administration in August to accelerate vaccine donations, saying that “the health of our industry is directly dependent on the health of Vietnam’s industry.” The apparel industry employs about three million workers in the US. Steve Lamar, president of the American Apparel & Footwear Association told the Times some US companies had been setting up vaccination sites at their Vietnam suppliers to help administer COVID shots. They were, he openly admitted, trying to keep manufacturing going through a “three-in-one place” policy, “where workers eat, sleep and work at factories” [emphasis added]. Put bluntly, highly exploited Vietnamese sweatshop workers are being effectively imprisoned by the profit demands of US corporates.
New Zealand COVID-19 outbreak grows after restrictions eased - In the week since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that New Zealand would be “transitioning” away from its previous strategy of eliminating COVID-19, with more restrictions in Auckland to be lifted, the outbreak of the highly-infectious Delta variant has continued to rapidly expand. Medical staff test shoppers who volunteered at a pop-up community COVID-19 testing station at a supermarket carpark in Christchurch, New Zealand. (AP Photo/Mark Baker) On Sunday, 60 new cases were reported, the highest daily figure since September 1. This was followed by 35 on Monday and 43 today, bringing the total active cases to 469—an increase of 175 in the space of a week. With thousands of workers permitted to travel to and from Auckland, people have recently tested positive for the virus in the neighbouring Waikato and Northland regions, prompting the government to extend the “level 3” lockdown to those regions. The outbreak was initially detected on August 17 and the country went into a strict level 4 lockdown the next day. Since then, however, the lockdown has been lifted in most of the country, while in Auckland it was eased to “level 3” on September 22, allowing up to 300,000 people to return to workplaces. The media and the Labour Party-led government claim that the level 4 lockdown, among the strictest in the world, wasn’t working. This is a lie. The size of the outbreak shrank from a high point of 731 active cases on September 3, to just 202 cases on September 28, as the vast majority had recovered. Since then, however, the relaxation of restrictions has caused case numbers to more than double. The number of daily reported cases that were infectious in the community (i.e. not isolated at home) prior to being tested has also increased, from single figures prior to September 22, to between 20 and 31 in recent days. The total number of unlinked cases in the past 14 days (where the source of transmission is not known) stands at 74, compared with just seven on September 22. Amid this expanding outbreak, the government’s decision to abandon elimination has triggered alarm among public health experts, doctors, teachers and other workers, both in New Zealand and internationally. The decision was not based on scientific advice, but on the requirements of big business, which has demanded—via the corporate media and the opposition National Party—that the government reopen the schools and workplaces before it is safe to do so. Ardern yesterday backed down from her announcement a week earlier that the government planned to reopen schools in Auckland on October 18. Radio NZ reported on October 7 that the reopening threatened to provoke “a teacher backlash,” based on members’ feedback to the Post-Primary Teachers’ Association. The government has not decided on a new date for reopening. The Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Auckland region chairperson Michael Cabral-Tarry said “a good prerequisite [for schools reopening] might be 80 percent [of eligible people fully vaccinated] in those communities where Delta is still rampant.” The unions are also supporting a vaccine mandate for school staff. These measures would still leave many people unvaccinated, including all children aged under 12, and would not be sufficient to stop outbreaks.
Crews Are Abandoned on Ships in Record Numbers Without Pay, Food or a Way Home — An engineer stuck on a cargo ship abandoned in a Black Sea port has waited four years to get paid and go home. Off the coast of Somalia, a crew awaiting pay languishes on a pirate-trawled stretch of the Indian Ocean while their ship slowly takes on water. Another 14 seafarers, stuck on a cargo ship off the coast of Iran, have run out of food and fuel. Some contemplated suicide. “We cannot survive here,” said an engineer aboard the MV Aizdihar, abandoned off the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas. “Please help us.” He spoke via video earlier this year, his face drawn.The $14 trillion shipping industry, responsible for 90% of world trade, has left in its wake what appears to be a record number of cargo-ship castaways. Abandonment cases are counted when shipowners fail to pay crews two or more months in wages or don’t cover the cost to send crew members home, according to the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency.Last year, the number of such cases reported to the agency more than doubled to 85 from 40 in 2019. This year is on track to be worse.More than 1,000 seafarers are currently abandoned on container ships and bulk carriers, according to estimates by the International Transport Workers’ Federation, a labor union. The true toll is likely higher because many crew members are reluctant to speak out for fear of being blacklisted, according to interviews with seafarers on abandoned vessels, shipowners, agents, maritime organizations and union officials.Mohamed Arrachedi, the union’s Middle East coordinator, said he wakes up to dozens of WhatsApp messages from distraught sailors around the world: “It’s a global humanitarian crisis.”In the United Arab Emirates, one shipping company abandoned seven container ships in recent months, leaving behind dozens of crew members, each owed a year’s wages. A five-man crew marooned next to a Dubai tourist resort, living off little more than rice for 10 months, recently ended a four-year ordeal. Last year, a mostly Egyptian crew was abandoned in Sudan. The ship was then sold and manned by a mostly Sudanese crew who also were abandoned in Egypt. Three of them are still aboard, floating off the Suez Canal in their ninth month without pay. The surge in cases prompted three of the world’s largest seafaring nations—China, Indonesia and the Philippines—to propose in August the establishment of a seafarers’ mutual emergency fund to help abandoned crews. Trade disruptions caused by the pandemic and the nature of the competitive, lightly regulated global shipping industry has helped drive the increase in the number of stranded sailors. Industry consolidation has yielded a half dozen shipping firms that ferry a majority of the world’s containers, reaping record profits from ocean freight’s best-ever quarter in the final three months of 2020, according to New York-based investment manager, Blue Alpha Capital. These firms have driven out competitors helming smaller, more rundown ships. Struggling companies are often one delay or cancellation away from foundering. When debts pile up, or the cost of repairs becomes too high, some firms choose to abandon a ship or sell it for scrap.
Bolsonaro could face 11 criminal charges after pandemic probe, senator says - Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro could face 11 criminal charges after the country’s Senate investigated his response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to the senator in charge of the probe. Renan Calheiros said in a radio interview the probe will recommend charges such as genocide against the country's indigenous population, malfeasance, irregular use of public funds, violation of sanitary measures, incitement to crime and forgery of private documents, Reuters reported. Experts say Bolsonaro is unlikely to face the charges as they must be approved by the lower house, which most likely won’t happen. Along with Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro's sons and his former Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello will likely be charged, according to Calheiros. The report will be released to the Senate Tuesday with members voting on it Thursday, according to Reuters. Brazil is the second country in the world to reach 600,000 coronavirus deaths during the pandemic, with the country passing the milestone in October. Bolsonaro has refused to get vaccinated and continues to push unproven ways to cure the virus. When asked about the country’s death toll, Bolsonaro said he did not want to be “bored” with questions about it. Bolsonaro was previously infected with the virus and had to recently quarantine after his son tested positive for the virus.
Germany ends free coronavirus tests and reopens universities- Despite new infections continuing at a high level of about 8,000 per day on average, and virologists warning of a severe wave this autumn and winter, the federal and state governments are eliminating even the last protective measures against COVID-19. Significant steps are the ending of free coronavirus tests beginning this week and the reopening of universities in the winter semester of 2021/22. Officially, the reason given for abolishing free tests is to increase vaccination rates by putting pressure on the unvaccinated. In fact, this does not increase the vaccination rate, but rather systematically dismantles the infrastructure for combating the virus. A large number of testing centres across the country are now closing. The detection and tracing of infections is thus made more difficult and the ground is being prepared for the massive spread of the virus. On Monday, the Marburger Bund doctors’ union warned of new chains of infection developing because of the abolition of free coronavirus tests. “Paid coronavirus tests will lead to fewer people with symptoms getting tested in the future,” union President Susanne Johna told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND). “This is a gateway for further transmission of the virus.” The reopening of universities is also particularly threatening in this context. Just like the reopening of schools before, the return of nearly 3 million students to German universities will not be accompanied by increased safety measures. On the contrary, they will be further reduced. The specific regulations differ in detail from state to state and from university to university. However, the majority of courses are being held in person everywhere. At the universities where online options are still offered, these are only intended to supplement face-to-face courses. Compulsory testing applies only in the form of the inadequate 3G rule (vaccinated, recovered from COVID-19, tested) which, with the abolition of free tests, also represents a heavy financial burden for students. Distancing rules apply only at some universities, and even there it is almost impossible to comply with them. Even the requirement to wear a mask does not apply at most universities. The situation is particularly deadly due to the lack of air filtration. Exact figures on how many rooms are equipped with air filters often do not exist. In addition, facilities exist that are not designed to reduce viral loads. Hardly any universities provide information on whether and how many more new filters are to be installed.
Italy launches mandatory COVID-19 health pass - Italy on Friday launched one of the world's strictest anti-COVID-19 measures — a mandatory COVID-19 health pass or ‘Green pass’ – for its workers. The country is the first in Europe to mandate a "health pass" that requires everyone have proof that they have gotten at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, have recently recovered from an infection or have had a negative test in the last 48 hours if they want to go to work, according to Reuters. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi's Cabinet approved the rule in mid-September, making it mandatory on Oct. 15, according to the news outlet. The new rules also penalize those who do not have the pass. Workers who refuse to comply will be forced to take unpaid leave and risk fines of $1,760, The New York Times reported. In reaction to the measures taking effect, a handful of protests are taking place across the country. The New York Times reported that protesting workers in Trieste blocked some access to a busy port on Friday. The pass is already required in Italy for both tourists and nationals to enter museums, theaters, gyms and indoor restaurants, as well as to board trains, buses and domestic flights. Italy, one of the hardest-hit countries by the pandemic, has had more than 130,000 COVID-19 deaths. EuroNews reported that while more than 85 percent of Italians over the age of 12 have received one dose of the vaccine, up to 3 million unvaccinated workers are at risk of being denied access to their places of employment. An internal government document estimates that close to 15 percent of private and 8 percent of public sector workers do not have a Green Pass, Reuters said. Draghi's government has said the health pass is a measure put in place to ensure no further lockdowns in Italy.
Britain’s stumbling pandemic response cost thousands of lives, parliamentary report finds. - Britain’s initial response to the Covid-19 pandemic “ranks as one of the most important public health failures the United Kingdom has ever experienced,” a parliamentary inquiry has found, blaming the British government for “many thousands of deaths which could have been avoided.”In a highly critical, 151-page report, two committees of lawmakers wrote that the government’s failure to carry out widespread testing or swiftly impose lockdowns and other restrictions amounted to a pursuit of “herd immunity by infection” — accepting that many people would get the coronavirus and that the only option was to try to manage its spread.“It is now clear that this was the wrong policy, and that it led to a higher initial death toll than would have resulted from a more emphatic early policy,” the report concluded.Although many of its findings were already known, the report grew out of the first authoritative investigation of Britain’s pandemic response. The inquiry, led by lawmakers from Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s own Conservative Party, described a litany of failures by his government in the months after the first coronavirus cases were detected in Britain in January 2020.Britain has experienced one of the worst Covid-19 outbreaks among wealthy nations, with 162,000 deaths officially attributed to the disease. Like many Western democracies, at the outset of the pandemic it struggled to balance individual liberties with strict measures such as lockdowns, and suffered from mismanagement at the top levels of government.The country has tried to put those missteps behind it, racing ahead last winter and spring as one of the world leaders in vaccinations, with more than three-quarters of people 12 and older having nowreceived two doses of a Covid vaccine. As deaths declined from prior peaks, Britain cast off nearly all restrictions, and even though infections remain high, Mr. Johnson has tried to portray the country as having put the worst of the pandemic behind it. But as he struggles against a raft of new economic problems, the report renewed criticisms of his government’s handling of the virus. It does not require the government to act, but its findings are likely to influence the public debate for months to come. A full public inquiry promised by Mr. Johnson is not scheduled to begin until next year.
Britain's largest port, which handles nearly 40% of all containers, is facing a massive backlog of ships as it approaches its busiest time of year: the holiday season - The largest container port in the UK is taking steps to address increasing cargo congestion but may begin turning incoming ships away if the problem persists, according to ITV News.The Port of Felixstowe, which handles nearly 40% of all containers sent to and from the UK, is facing a massive backlog of ships as the site approaches its busiest time of year: the holiday season.According to ITV, the average shipping container that arrives at the port is currently spending more than nine days — two times the average "dwell time" of 2020 — sitting at Felixstowe.The logjam is in part, due to a shortage of drivers to operate heavy goods vehicles, known as HGV drivers, the outlet reported. The port's management is reportedly working to ease the traffic but could restrict access to incoming vessels if the situation continues to deteriorate.The HGV driver shortage has led to a major decrease in unloadings and reloadings of ships and has meant fewer containers are being collected. Haulers at the port told ITV they estimated collections in September were down 15% to 20%, leaving between 5,000 and 7,500 containers stacked at the port.As a result, the port has exceeded its "empty storage capacity," and has nearly 50,000 empty containers on site, according to the outlet.Major brand names are starting to be affected by the congestion, with IKEA telling ITV that is has faced "some challenges in returning containers" to the port, but has only seen "minimal impact" thus far. Nestle and General Foods also told the outlet they've felt the effects of the shortage. Some shipping companies have already had empty containers redirected to other UK ports, according to ITV, including Maersk, Evergreen Marine Corp, and CCMA-CGM. But import volume levels are still rising, and the port has reportedly started telling customers that it's "at capacity. The traffic comes as ports in California deal with similar record-breaking log jams. Last month, 56 cargo ships were stuck at anchor or in drift areas off of Los Angeles and Long Beach ports.
The UK and the Pandora papers: A cesspit of the super-rich -No one in the UK needed to be told that the Johnson government is beholden to the interests of the super-rich. Indeed, it is a government significantly made up of the rich and the super-rich. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has a reported personal wealth of £200 million, mostly in property. His wife has £430 million, mostly in shares in technology corporation Infosys, making her richer than the queen. Leader of the House of Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg’s hedge fund has brought him a personal fortune of well over £100 million. Some way behind, new Education Secretary Nadim Zahawi has an estimated property portfolio of £25 million. Health Secretary Sajid Javid clocks in at £8 million. What the Pandora papers add to this picture are the sordid details of the world in which such fortunes and ones vastly larger are made, hoarded and hidden with the UK at the centre of a network of legalised criminality. They confirm the utterly parasitic character of a ruling class which lives by looting the rest of society, to the tune of billions of pounds, while tossing chump change to its “elected representatives” for favours. Three major donors to the Conservative Party have come under particular scrutiny. Corporate lawyer and businessman Mohammed Amersi has donated £525,000 since 2018. His partner, Nadezhda Rodicheva, donated £250,000 in 2017 and 2018. The Pandora papers show that Amersi was working for Swedish telecoms company Telia during its involvement in one of Europe’s biggest corruption scandals, involving millions of pounds paid to Gulnara Karimova, daughter of the then president of Uzbekistan, through an offshore company to secure influence with the country’s mobile licensing regulator. Amersi handled the negotiations with Karimova’s offshore company. A Telia invoice for “success fees” for “Project Uzbekistan” records a payment of £500,000. BBC Panorama has seen internal Telia documents referring to a consultant named as “Mr XY” paid more than $65 million over six years, including between one and two million a year for “lavish corporate entertainment”. Former Telia executive Michaela Ahlberg told Panorama that the consultant was Amersi. In 2006, according to the Financial Times, Amersi was accused of seeking to “extort” $2 billion from a businessman on behalf of a Russian oligarch. In 2005, he received $4 million dollars for helping First National Holding acquire St Petersburg-based telecoms company PeterStar. The deal involved the “misappropriation” of Russian state assets, according to a Swiss arbitration tribunal. First National Holding was owned by Leonid Reiman, then Russia’s telecoms minister. Another donor exposed in the Pandora papers is Viktor Fedotov, a former oil executive, whose companies Aquind and Offshore Group Newcastle have donated £700,000 since 2016. His business partner at Aquind, Alexander Temerko, has also gifted £700,000. The papers show that Fedotov was a secret owner, through layers of offshore companies, of VNIIST, which several years ago made millions from an allegedly corrupt deal with Russian state-owned oil and gas pipeline company Transneft. VNIIST’s two other owners were Transneft executives.
Bank of England says crypto growth could create a systemic risk -- The cryptocurrency market is double the size of the subprime debt in the U.S. on the eve of the financial crisis and poses a threat unless urgently regulated, the Bank of England said. Crypto assets are now worth $2.3 trillion, about 200% more than at the start of the year. While that’s still a small part of the $250 trillion global financial system, it’s about twice the size of the $1.2 trillion subprime real estate debt market in 2008. “When something in the financial system is growing very fast, and growing in largely unregulated space, financial stability authorities have to sit up and take notice,” Deputy BOE Governor Jon Cunliffe said. “You don’t have to account for a large proportion of the financial sector to trigger financial stability problems,” BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said in a speech on Wednesday. “When something in the financial system is growing very fast, and growing in largely unregulated space, financial stability authorities have to sit up and take notice.”
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