global glass onion: week ending Oct 9

Jobs Report Keeps Fed Taper on Track for November – WSJ --Despite Friday’s disappointing September jobs report, Federal Reserve officials have signaled in recent weeks the gains are likely to satisfy the thresholds they have laid out to start reducing their bond buying at their policy meeting next month.In determining whether the economy had met its tests for beginning to scale back their easy-money policies, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had set a relatively low bar for the central bank to clear. “It wouldn’t take a knockout, great, superstrong employment report,” he said after the Fed’s Sept. 21-22 meeting, referring to the figures released by the Labor Department on Friday. Employers added 194,000 jobs in September, the report showed. That was below economists’ expectations, largely due to weaker hiring by state and local governments. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has dropped steadily, to 4.8% in September from 5.2% in August, partly reflecting a decline in the number of people who looked for work last month. .Altogether, that appears to be enough to keep the Fed on track to announce a taper after their Nov. 2-3 meeting.With the economy shutting down, the Fed cut its short-term benchmark rate to near zero when the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S. in March 2020. It has been purchasing at least $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds since June 2020 to provide additional stimulus.Officials said in December they would continue to buy bonds at that pace until they decide the economy has made “substantial further progress” toward their goals of reversing an employment shortfall—then of around 10 million jobs since the start of the pandemic—and moving inflation back to their 2% goal over time.Inflation has soared this year, to 4.3% in August using the Fed’s preferred gauge, with most of the gains reflecting squeezed supply chains, temporary shortages and a travel rebound associated with the reopening of the economy.That leaves the employment shortfall as the remaining hurdle for a taper. The economy has added around 4.9 million jobs this year through September—closing nearly half of the shortfall that existed in December. Mr. Powell said at the Sept. 22 news conference he was less interested in the pattern of month-to-month gains in hiring and more interested in seeing “accumulated progress.”“My own view would be that the substantial-further-progress test for employment is all but met,” Mr. Powell said. The central bank last month modified its postmeeting statement to signal that the taper “could come as soon as the next meeting,” Mr. Powell said.Even though the jobless rate remains higher than the pre-pandemic level of 3.5%, other measures—including job vacancies and wage growth—suggest the labor market is tight. The average hourly pay of private-sector workers climbed 4.6% in September, compared with a year earlier. Employers have raised wages to compete over a shrunken pool of workers.Until recently, it looked as if a bigger hurdle for the Fed to announce a taper next month might come from a failure by the White House and Congress to lift the federal debt limit. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned last week that she might exhaust emergency cash conservation steps later this month. Democrats struck a short-term agreement with Republican leaders that postpones any potential showdown until the year’s end.Fed officials have stressed in recent weeks that the bar to raise interest rates is different—and significantly higher—than the threshold for tapering asset purchases.

Fed trading controversy shows Powell has ‘failed as a leader’: Warren -— Sen. Elizabeth Warren sought to tie the controversy over trading by senior Federal Reserve officials with her opposition to another term for Fed Chair Jerome Powell.Last month, Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan announced their resignations as heads of the Federal Reserve banks of Boston and Dallas, respectively, over scrutiny of trades they made while privy to pandemic response plans. A Bloomberg News report has also raised questions about trading by Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida. Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, took to the Senate floor Tuesday to suggest that the scandal casts doubt on Powell's leadership abilities as President Biden considers whether to reappoint him.

Watch Senator Elizabeth Warren Explain in a 9-Minute Speech on the Senate Floor Today the “Culture of Corruption” at the Fed and How Powell Has “Failed as a Leader” -By Pam MartensAfter watching the video below, if you have further doubts, consider this: On August 7 of last year, Wall Street On Parade reported that Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, was having private phone calls with BlackRock CEO, Larry Fink, while BlackRock managed upwards of $25 million of Powell’s personal money and the Fed awarded three no-bid contracts to BlackRock for emergency lending facilities.One of those no-bid contracts allowed BlackRock to use Fed money to buy up corporate bonds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the secondary market, including BlackRock’s own ETFs. American taxpayers’ money was used to backstop losses in these bailout facilities. And while the individual stock-trading of Kaplan and Rosengren is indeed an outrage, it pales in comparison to what the New York Fed has been doing for decades.On October 30 of last year, Wall Street On Parade reported that the New York Fed signed a contract with JPMorgan Chase on December 31, 2008 to serve as the sole custodian of the Fed’s holdings of agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). The contract was updated on January 30, 2017 and continues to this day. As of last month, JPMorgan Chase was holding $2.4 trillion (principal amount) in MBS backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae that belongs to the Fed.During the term of that Fed contract, JPMorgan Chase has admitted to five felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice. But, apparently, in the Fed’s view, serial criminal activity is not a reason to shop for a new custodian for $2.4 trillion in Fed assets.

Closely Watched Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast for Third Quarter Cut by 63 Percent Since August - The closely watched Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for real GDP growth for the third quarter has been slashed by 63 percent since August 2 when the forecast was for 6.3 percent growth. The forecast now stands at a dismal 2.3 percent growth rate as of 7:30 a.m. (EDT) this morning. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast could be revised further today after the 10:00 a.m. release of the International Trade and ISM Nonmanufacturing Index. (The GDPNow update typically occurs within a few hours of a new data release.)The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is the seasonally adjusted annual rate. It comes with the following caveat:“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter….”The U.S. is a consumer-based economy with consumer spending representing approximately two-thirds of GDP growth. Taking the pulse of the consumer is thus an important gauge of what might be ahead for the U.S. economy.Weighing on a less than rosy consumer outlook is the growing awareness that COVID-19 is not going to “magically disappear” anytime soon; that wearing masks and social distancing are now a part of everyday life in America; that supply chain bottlenecks and rising commodity prices are pushing up inflation and raising prices to consumers; and that political gridlock in Washington is making all of the country’s problems worse.The mood of the consumer is darkening. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell further in September, after declines in both July and August. The Index now stands at 109.3 from a reading of 128.9 in June – a 15 percent drop. The latest report was released on September 28 and noted the following:“Consumer confidence dropped in September as the spread of the Delta variant continued to dampen optimism. Concerns about the state of the economy and short-term growth prospects deepened, while spending intentions for homes, autos, and major appliances all retreated again. Short-term inflation concerns eased somewhat, but remain elevated.” Adding to the loss of optimism is an alarming trend of low confidence in the major institutions in America. Gallup releases an annual poll of Americans’ confidence in major U.S. institutions. The latest poll was released on July 14. According to the latest Gallup poll, Americans who have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in America’s banks has fallen 5 points from 2020 to just 33 percent in the current poll. Since the mega banks in the U.S. effectively are the U.S. financial system, that poll number can be read to mean that two-thirds of Americans lack significant confidence in the U.S. financial system. Technology companies have lost ground as well, falling from 32 percent to 29 percent. (The revelations from the Facebook whistleblower, Frances Haugen, on Sunday evening’s Sixty Minutes, with more revelations scheduled for a hearing by the Senate Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Product Safety, and Data Security at 10 a.m. this morning, are likely to push that poll number lower in the next annual reading.) The Gallup poll shows that Big Business ranks even lower than banks and technology companies, with just an 18 percent confidence reading. And at the bottom of the heap is Congress, with just a 12 percent confidence rank. It’s pretty clear that if Congress stopped taking campaign money from Big Business, it would improve its ranking.

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Significant Downgrades - Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. […] The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts initially underestimating the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.

From BofA Merrill Lynch: We are taking down 3Q GDP tracking to 2% from 3.8% previously, reflecting a reassessment of equipment and inventories, and the likely soft retail sales data. [Oct 8 estimate]
From Goldman Sachs: Following today’s payroll miss and outright decline in education payrolls, we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by ¼pp to 3¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 8 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.3 percent on October 8 [Oct 8 estimate]

Business Cycle Indicators with NFP by Menzie Chinn - While there was a big downside NFP surprise (194K vs. Bloomberg consensus of 500K), the overall picture is not much altered: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from August release (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.There are reasons to believe that the September figures are perhaps distorted somewhat by seasonal issues (including school related), as well as real-world factors like the rise of the delta variant’s impact, to be discussed in the next post. For now, it’s useful to consider private employment, which experienced a smaller miss (317K actual vs. 455K consensus). Figure 2: Annualized growth rate of official private nonfarm payroll employment (blue), ADP private NFP (brown), and Bloomberg consensus (blue +). Growth rates calculated as log differences. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations. What is true is that growth seems to be decelerating. Current nowcasts for Q3 GDP are 1.4% (IHS-MarkIt), 1.3% (Atlanta Fed), and 3.25% (Goldman Sachs). As reported by CR, Merrill 2%.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 3rd.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. The 7-day average is down 23.1% from the same day in 2019 (76.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Note that the dashed line hit a pandemic high over the Labor Day weekend - probably due to leisure travel, but is now below pre-holiday levels. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 2, 2021. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday - but might be picking up a little again. The 7-day average for the US is down 7% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 30th. Movie ticket sales were at $50 million last week, down about 63% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). This data is through September 25th. The occupancy rate was down 11.0% compared to the same week in 2019. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of September 24th, gasoline supplied was up 2.7% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been six weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." .The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends. All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 116% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph).Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are close to 15 million subway turnstile entries per week - and moving up recently.This data is through Friday, October 1st. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

The 10 year-3 month Treasury Spread over 75 Years - For the past 50 years, inversion has preceded recession. Figure 1: Ten year-three month Treasury spread, % (blue). Three month is secondary market yield. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. The 1989 near inversion is the sole exception (false negative), although the 10yr-2yr does invert then. (Updating for my undergrad course — see notes here.) So if the US does go into a recession in the near future (as posited by this article), then this will be another case of a false negative reading from the 10yr-3mo spread.

Biden blames Mitch McConnell, Joe Manchin and others for debt problems - Days after he failed to gain enough support in his own party to approve two crucial pieces of his agenda, President Biden on Monday insisted he’s doing all he can as he blamed fellow Democrats and the Senate Republican leader for his legislative troubles. Following a White House address where he urged Senate Minority Leader to set aside a filibuster on raising the debt limit, admitting to reporters afterwards that he “can’t” guarantee the US won’t hit the debt ceiling, Biden was pressed on why he was unable to get key members of the Democratic Party on board with his infrastructure and social spending agenda last week. “I have been able to close a deal with 99 percent of my party — two people,” he said, appearing to reference Sens. Krysten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), who have both vowed to vote against Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package at its current price tag. “That’s still underway,” Biden said of negotiations. “I don’t think there’s been a president that has been able to close deals that has been in a position where he has only 50 votes in the Senate and a bare majority in the House,” Biden griped, despite heading into Friday’s visit to the House of Representatives knowing he needed to move those two senators to forge a deal. “It’s a process.” The president was pushed further and specifically asked if he was putting the blame “squarely on two US senators for his inability to close that deal.” “Look, I need 50 votes in the Senate. I have 48,” Biden replied.

McConnell 'respectfully' tells Biden it's time for Democrats to raise debt ceiling --Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is urging President Biden to lean on Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to get Democrats to raise the debt ceiling on their own. "I respectfully submit that it is time for you to engage directly with congressional Democrats on this matter," McConnell said of the debt ceiling in a letter to Biden. "Your lieutenants in Congress must understand that you do not want your unified Democratic government to sleepwalk toward an avoidable catastrophe when they have had nearly three months' notice to do their job," McConnell wrote. "Republicans' position is simple. We have no list of demands. For two and a half months, we have simply warned that since your party wishes to govern alone, it must handle the debt limit alone as well," McConnell added. McConnell's letter to Biden comes shortly before the president gives a speech on the need to raise the debt ceiling. Congress has until Oct. 18, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, to act or risk a historic default. Schumer, in a separate letter to Democrats on Monday, said Congress needs to act to raise the debt ceiling by the end of the week, but gave no details on the path forward. Republicans have twice blocked Democrats from raising the debt ceiling: once, to suspend the debt ceiling as part of a short-term government funding bill, and a second time when Schumer tried to bypass the 60-vote filibuster to set up a stand-alone bill to suspend the debt ceiling. McConnell and Biden have a decades-long relationship, including serving in the Senate together and cutting deals when Biden was vice president. McConnell — saying that their working relationship had included "strong disagreements" but also "mutual transparency and respectful candor" — told Biden in his letter that he was writing to warn that the United States was "sleepwalking toward significant and avoidable danger" on the debt ceiling fight. Republicans are trying to force Democrats to raise the debt ceiling on their own through reconciliation, a budget process that lets them bypass a filibuster. Republicans believe that will force Democrats to raise the debt ceiling to a specific number, rather than suspending it to a certain date, which would be a tougher political vote. Democrats have so far refused to put that option on the table.

Schumer forces debt limit vote to squeeze Republican resistance - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Monday that he’ll tee up another ill-fated vote on waiving the debt limit, attempting to shame Republicans for blocking action as the country nears the brink of default. The New York Democrat will set a vote later this week to fire up debate on a House-passed bill that would suspend the debt ceiling through the 2022 midterms. But to move forward, at least 10 Republicans would need to vote in support — a 60-vote threshold that the Senate has already failed to reach as GOP leaders insist on Democrats tackling the issue solo. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told President Joe Biden in a letter on Monday that it’s time for Biden to get moving on a one-party solution, stressing that Democrats have “had nearly three months’ notice to do their job.”Schumer’s latest push to squeeze the GOP with debt limit action this week runs up against a ticking clock. Democrats are betting that the needed Republican senators will eventually cave in order to stave off an unparalleled economic disaster, which could hit in as little as two weeks. But if the GOP refuses to fold, Democrats are running out of time to remedy the crisis on their own through a more limiting and time-consuming budget maneuver known as reconciliation.Another failed vote to lift the debt ceiling could worry economists and Wall Street investors, as the Treasury Department warns that the nation could deplete its borrowing ability by Oct. 18, or the so-called X Date.“Let me be clear about the task ahead of us: we must get a bill to the President’s desk dealing with the debt limit by the end of the week. Period,” Schumer said in a letter to colleagues on Monday morning, threatening to work through the weekend or cancel next week’s recess if legislation doesn’t end up in Biden’s hands.

Biden Calls Republicans 'Reckless' Over the Debt Limit Increase - — President Biden excoriated Republicans on Monday for blocking his party’s efforts to raise the debt ceiling weeks before a projected government default, calling their tactics “reckless” and “disgraceful” and warning they risked causing “a self-inflicted wound that takes our economy over a cliff.”Mr. Biden, trying to convey the risks to everyday Americans, warned that they could see the effects as early as this week if Senate Democrats were not able to vote to raise the debt limit. That cap dictates the amount of money the government can borrow to fulfill its financial obligations, including paying Social Security checks, salaries for military personnel and other bills.“As soon as this week, your savings and your pocketbook could be directly impacted by this Republican stunt,” Mr. Biden said, cautioning that a failed vote could rattle financial markets, sending stock prices lower and interest rates higher. “A meteor is headed for our economy.”Despite Mr. Biden’s attempts to blame Republicans for the impasse, Democrats are increasingly confronting the possibility that they may need to raise the debt limit through the one legislative path that Republicans have left open: a process known as budget reconciliation that bypasses a Senate filibuster. Mr. Biden and Democratic leaders have chafed at that approach, saying Republicans bear a share of responsibility for Washington’s ongoing budget deficits and must at least allow an up-or-down vote, as has been the case under previous presidents.Investors in U.S. government debt are already getting spooked:Yields for certain Treasury bonds that could be affected by a default spiked on Monday, as investors demanded higher interest payments to offset the risk.The Treasury Department has warned the United States will run out of money to pay all its bills by Oct. 18 if the borrowing cap is not raised, a situation that could force the government into default and wreak havoc on an American economy already shaken by the coronavirus. The dire stakes of the debt limit impasse add a level of seriousness to what has become a perennial exercise of political brinkmanshipin Washington. Mr. Biden and congressional Democrats say Republicans are putting the entire economy at risk by blocking a Senate vote that would raise the debt limit with just Democrat support. Republicans, who have allowed such votes to occur in the past, have twice blocked Democrats from taking up a bill and are trying to force the party to use reconciliation, which is a more complicated process that could take a week or more to come together. On Monday, the president said that he could not guarantee the limit would be raised.“That’s up to Mitch McConnell,” Mr. Biden said, referencing the senator of Kentucky and minority leader. “I don’t believe it. But can I guarantee it? If I could, I would, but I can’t.”

Senate Democrats float filibuster carveout for debt ceiling - Senate Democrats are discussing creating an exemption from the filibuster for the debt ceiling, even as they acknowledge that it’s unclear they have the support in their caucus for such a move. The idea was brought up during a closed-door caucus lunch on Tuesday, sources confirmed to The Hill, as Democrats try to figure out how to avoid a historic debt default. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who told reporters as recently as Monday that there were not active talks, confirmed to The Hill on Tuesday that Democrats are now discussing a filibuster carveout for the debt ceiling. “There are discussions,” he told The Hill, asked about the status of potential talks. Creating such an exemption would take total unity within the 50-member conference and Vice President Harris presiding to break a tie, a bar it’s not clear Democrats could meet. “We have very few options right now, so one of the options clearly is to have a narrow change in rules,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). Murphy, in an apparent reference to the dynamics with the caucus, added, “I don’t know where all my colleagues are.” Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) added that he personally supports changes to the 60-vote filibuster rule, but deferred to leadership about if he thought Democrats could win over Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), two opponents to changing the Senate’s filibuster that requires 60 votes for passing most legislation. “I’m telling you it’s urgent. We’ve got to get it done sooner rather than later,” Cardin added about the debt ceiling. Biden, asked about a carve out for the debt ceiling, told CNN that it was a “real possibility.”Democrats have been under growing pressure to nix the legislative filibuster with the stalemate with Republicans over how to raise the debt ceiling pouring new fuel into those calls. But Manchin indicated to reporters on Monday that he didn’t view gutting the filibuster as connected to the fight over the debt ceiling. “The filibuster has nothing to do with debt ceiling. Basically, we have other tools that we can use, and if we have to use them we should use them,” Manchin said on Monday. Asked about his Democratic colleagues floating creating an exemption from the filibuster for the debt ceiling, Manchin on Tuesday evening pointed to Senate leadership. “They got to work through it. Let the leaders work it out, they should work it out. They both know what this country needs,” Manchin told reporters on Tuesday.

Manchin open to debt hike through reconciliation, rules out nixing filibuster --Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said on Monday that Democrats should raise the debt ceiling through reconciliation if they have to, ruling out nixing the legislative filibuster to do so. “They shouldn’t rule out anything. We just can’t let the debt ceiling lapse. We just can’t,” Manchin told reporters, asked about Democratic leadership ruling out using reconciliation, a budget process that lets them bypass the filibuster, to increase the nation’s borrowing limit. Asked if he was saying Democratic leadership should raise the debt ceiling under reconciliation, Manchin added: “Whatever they have to do, absolutely.” Congress has until Oct. 18 to raise the country’s borrowing limit, according to a letter from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, or risk a historic default that would have widespread economic consequences. Asked if he would support nixing the the filibuster to raise the debt ceiling, Manchin instead pointed to reconciliation as one way they could raise the debt ceiling without GOP help. “The filibuster has nothing to do with debt ceiling. Basically, we have other tools that we can use and if we have to use them we should use them,” Manchin said. “Forget the filibuster, OK? We can prevent default ... there’s a way to do that. There’s a couple other tools that we have that we can use. Takes a little bit of time. It’s going to be a little bit of pain, long vote-a-ramas,” Manchin told reporters, referring to the marathon voting sessions that occur as part of the Senate considering a bill under the reconciliation rules. The White House and Senate GOP leadership are at a standoff over how to raise the debt ceiling.

Democrats insist they won't back down on debt ceiling - Senate Democrats on Tuesday insisted they would not back down to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in a high-stakes standoff over the federal debt limit. With just days to go before a potential debt default, which would be the first in U.S. history, Democrats emerged from a luncheon strategy meeting saying there was no way they'd use the lengthy budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling. The forceful opposition came from lawmakers like Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) who have made clear that Democrats, with their control of the White House and Congress, cannot let the debt limit deadline lapse. “We’re not doing it on reconciliation ... it's too complicated," Kaine said. Other Democrats said there simply isn’t enough time to go the budget reconciliation route. "It's impossible to do that now," said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. "There's too many pitfalls, it takes too long." Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Democrats were willing to use "every tool we can" but that there wasn't enough time to raise the debt ceiling through reconciliation. "There is not enough time. It will not work without Republican cooperation, and they are not giving us any cooperation," she said. McConnell for weeks has said Republicans will have no part in raising or suspending the debt ceiling and that Democrats must use the budget reconciliation process to create a special legislative vehicle that would raise the debt limit with only Democratic votes. But Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) says that could take two weeks — maybe even longer since just one senator could drag out the proceedings — and would require holding two lengthy vote-a-ramas, when senators can offer an unlimited number of amendments that require floor votes. “Reconciliation is a drawn-out, convoluted and risky process,” Schumer said on Tuesday. The entrenchment on both sides is making some members of each caucus nervous as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ramps up calls for Congress to raise or suspend the debt limit by Oct. 18 to avoid a financial catastrophe that could cripple the U.S. economy. Some Democratic senators are discussing the possibility of carving out a special exception to the filibuster that would allow the debt ceiling to be suspended with just 50 votes. That would require overruling the Senate parliamentarian and creating a new precedent — a controversial tactic known as the nuclear option. President Biden, asked if Democrats were considering a carveout for the debt ceiling, told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that it was a “real possibility.” But centrist Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) have made clear this year that they do not support gutting the Senate’s filibuster rule, which requires 60 votes for most legislation.

Democrats want McConnell's GOP to feel debt-ceiling pain - The White House and Democrats sought Monday to make Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) feel some political pain for the high-stakes poker game he is playing with Democrats over raising the debt ceiling. Weeks after McConnell telegraphed his strategy that Republicans will not lift a finger to extend the nation’s borrowing limit, Democrats engaged in a choreographed effort to convince voters that the GOP leader would be responsible for a debt default. President Biden took a starring role, using the bully pulpit to say the U.S. faced a real possibility of defaulting, and that McConnell would be to blame. He said McConnell’s actions were “dangerous,” the results of a default would be “dire” and that whether the U.S. made an Oct. 18 deadline set by the Treasury Department was “up to Mitch McConnell.” McConnell earlier had asked Biden “respectfully” to start pressing Democratic leaders to extend the nation’s borrowing limit, while noting that Biden himself opposed raising the debt limit under former President George W. Bush. McConnell left out that Democrats did not use the filibuster to block a debt-ceiling hike, as McConnell and the GOP have done. The GOP and McConnell say they are right not to waive the filibuster for the debt ceiling because Democrats are crafting a $3.5 trillion social spending bill that will be immune from the filibuster because of budget rules. As a result, they say Democrats should have to raise the debt ceiling on their own. Democrats counter that the debt ceiling needs to be hiked for past spending, much of it the result of the tax-cut law and spending bills signed by former President Trump. Yet if McConnell and Democrats are playing a high-stakes game of poker on the debt ceiling, many Republicans and a few Democrats see the GOP leader as holding the better cards and unlikely to fold. Republicans received a confidence boost in their strategy last week after Democrats pulled language to suspend the debt limit out of a short-term government funding bill that also provided $28 billion for disaster relief, side-stepping a potential government shutdown. While Democrats usually win political fights over government shutdowns, they didn’t have any appetite for sticking to their strategy of pairing the funding stopgap with the debt-limit suspension. Instead, they passed a clean bill to fund the government until December along with disaster relief and money for Afghan refugee resettlement, which Biden signed into law Thursday. Republicans saw the fight over Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) effort to pair the government funding package with a debt-limit measure as a victory and a prelude of what’s to come. After Schumer last week declared the prospect of raising the debt limit with only Democratic votes via the budget reconciliation process a “non-starter,” Republican leaders privately predicted he would soon be forced to change course.

Democrats delay debt ceiling vote to huddle on McConnell offer - Senate Democrats are delaying a vote on a bill to suspend the debt ceiling through 2022, after GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) offered a potential off ramp from the weeks-long fight. “They’re having a recess to discuss McConnell’s press release,” said Sen Mike Braun (R-Ind.) referring to Democrats. A member of GOP leadership confirmed that senators had been told they could leave the floor, where they had been voting on an unrelated nomination, for now. Democrats are huddling off the floor to discuss how to talk about McConnell’s offer, which would give them the option of raising the debt ceiling into December. “It’s not happening right now,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) of the cloture vote. A Senate Democratic leadership aide said the Senate would go into recess after the nomination vote so the caucus could meet, with the cloture vote happening after that absent an agreement by the Senate to call it off. The Senate was expected to vote on Wednesday to end debate on a bill to suspend the debt ceiling through December 2022. That bill would have been blocked by Republicans, who would have to provide 10 GOP votes to break a filibuster. Lawmakers have until Oct. 18 to raise the debt ceiling or risk a historic default. McConnell is offering to let Democrats pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling into December, setting up a potential end of the year cliff.M

White House cool to McConnell debt ceiling offer: 'We don't need to kick the can' -The White House on Wednesday gave a chilly reception to an offer from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to raise the debt-limit for two months to avoid a potential economic crisis. Press secretary Jen Psaki briefed reporters at the same time some Democratic senators signaled they would accept McConnell's offer. But Psaki argued a more immediate, long-term solution to raise the debt ceiling would be preferable to what few details were available about the compromise. "We could get this done today. We don't need to kick the can. We don't need to go through a cumbersome process that every day brings additional risks," Psaki said. "The preference would be just getting this done today so we can move on to more business for the American people, and that option is still on the table," Psaki continued. "If we're looking at the best options, why kick the can down the road a couple more weeks? Why create an additional layer of uncertainty? Why not just get it done now? That's what we're continuing to press for and that's our first choice." McConnell in a statement on Wednesday offered to vote to raise the debt limit to a certain number high enough to cover the nation’s financial obligations until December, at which point the ceiling would again have to be raised. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said accepting the offer would amount to “a temporary victory.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said McConnell had "caved," and Democrats would shift their focus to passing their agenda. Republicans had previously been united in opposition to voting to raise the debt ceiling, arguing Democrats should do it unilaterally through reconciliation. But Democrats had largely ruled out that route, setting up a standoff in the Senate. Lawmakers have until Oct. 18 to raise the debt ceiling or risk a historic default. President Biden met earlier Wednesday with business leaders to discuss the potential consequences on the economy should the nation default. “The Senate Republicans’ position, I find not only to be hypocritical, but dangerous and a bit disgraceful, especially as we’re crawling our way out of a pandemic that cost us 700,000 lives,” Biden said.

Senate votes to extend debt ceiling through early December - The Senate voted 50-48 Thursday evening to extend the nation's debt limit through early December after Democrats and Republicans reached a deal to avert economic disaster following weeks of partisan deadlock over the issue.The House will next have to approve the extension before it can be sent to President Joe Biden for his signature. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said late Thursday that the House will convene on Tuesday to vote on the bill.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced Thursday morning that a deal had been reached, paving the way for the final vote later in the day. An aide familiar with negotiations told CNN that the deal is to increase the ceiling by $480 billion, which is how much the Treasury Department told Congress it would need to get to December 3.The announcement came a day after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell publicly floated a debt ceiling proposal, which sparked negotiations between the two parties to reach an agreement.Both parties have made clear that the country must not default and that even coming close to it would likely bring catastrophic economic consequences. Yet while the debt limit extension stands to avert immediate economic disaster, it does not resolve the underlying partisan stalemate over the issue. It merely delays the fight until another day.

Senate passes short-term increase to the debt limit, House to vote on it next - The Senate on Thursday approved a bill to help the U.S. avoid a default on its debt in the next few weeks.In the most consequential vote of the night, 11 Republicans joined all 50 Democrats to provide the minimum 60 votes needed to end debate and move the bill to final passage, which required a simple majority.None of the Republicans who voted to end debate also then voted to pass the final bill. But for that, Democrats needed only 50 votes, because at least one Republican, Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina, was not present.The U.S. risks economic calamity if Congress doesn't raise or suspend the borrowing limit by Oct. 18, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned. Senators signed off on legislation Thursday that would keep the nation from reaching its debt limit until early December.The agreement allows the debt limit to increase by $480 billion, a sum the Treasury Department estimates will allow it to pay bills until Dec. 3. The current national debt is about $28.4 trillion and would be permitted to rise to about $28.8 trillion.The bill now moves to the House, where Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is expected to take up the legislation in the coming days.A spokesman for Pelosi's office did not respond to CNBC's request for guidance on when the House speaker plans to hold a vote on the Senate-passed bill.Still, the House is widely expected to approve the Senate's version of the bill and send it to President Joe Biden before the Oct. 18 drop-dead date.Congressional leaders reached a breakthrough after weeks of fruitless bickering on Wednesday, when Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., proposed extending the debt limit until December.The debt ceiling does not authorize new government spending, but allows the Treasury Department to pay for legislation Congress has already passed.

Schumer frustrates GOP, Manchin with fiery debt ceiling speech --Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) sparked anger among Senate Republicans after he railed against them just after they helped advance a short-term debt ceiling extension over a key hurdle. The speech from Schumer came after 11 GOP senators joined with all Democrats to end debate on the short-term debt hike. Republicans had worked for hours behind the scenes to try to arm-twist and lock down the at least 10 GOP votes needed to overcome the hurdle. The Senate passed the debt ceiling increase on a party-line, 50-48 vote. Schumer blasted the GOP debt ceiling strategy, accusing them of playing a "dangerous and risky partisan game" and saying Democrats were able to "pull our country back from the cliff's edge that Republicans tried to push us over." The remarks angered Republicans, who each voted against the short-term debt ceiling extension in the final vote where only a simple majority was needed. It also sparked pushback from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who could be seen with his hands over his face for part of Schumer's remarks. "I didn't think it was appropriate at this time, and we had a talk about that," Manchin told reporters as he left the Capitol for the night. "I'm sure Chuck's frustration was up, but that was not a way of taking it out." Manchin added that senators needed to "de-weaponize" and "stop playing politics." Manchin could be seen talking with Schumer as the Democratic leader sat at his desk after giving the speech. Senate GOP Whip John Thune (S.D.), one of 11 GOP senators who voted to end debate on the debt bill, and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) also both approached Schumer on the floor after his speech. Thune said he told Schumer that he was frustrated with the tone of the Democratic leader's speech. "I thought it was totally out of line. I just thought it was an incredibly partisan speech after we had just helped him solve a problem. ... I let him have it," Thune said. Romney, referring to Schumer's remarks, told reporters that "there’s a time to be graceful and there’s a time to be combative, and that was a time for grace." Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said he "heard a number of people" on the Senate floor calling Schumer's speech counterproductive. And Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) said Schumer's remarks were "unnecessarily partisan." Sen. Mike Rounds (S.D.), another GOP "yes" vote on the procedural hurdle, told CNN that he thought the comments from Schumer were a "classless speech."

Video: See what Manchin does while Schumer gives debt ceiling speech - CNN Video - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) criticized the speech Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) delivered after 10 GOP senators joined Democrats in voting toextend the nation's debt limit through early December.

McConnell vows GOP won't help raise debt ceiling in December after Schumer 'tantrum' - Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) warned President Biden on Friday that Republicans won't help raise the debt ceiling later this year, and stated that a recent speech by Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y) had "poisoned the well." "Last night, Republicans filled the leadership vacuum that has troubled the Senate since January. I write to inform you that I will not provide such assistance again if your all-Democrat government drifts into another avoidable crisis," McConnell wrote in the letter to Biden. The letter comes after 11 Republicans helped advance a short-term debt ceiling extension Thursday night, after a weeks-long standoff where McConnell and his conference said that Democrats would have to raise the debt ceiling on their own through a budget process known as reconciliation. But on Wednesday McConnell backtracked, offering to let Democrats pass a short-term extension that is expected to last into early December. Republicans say the move helps take pressure off of Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to change the legislative filibuster and pokes a hole in Democrats' argument that they don't have enough time to raise the debt ceiling on their own. McConnell's letter is a warning to Democrats, but also gives an early signal to his own members that he won't give Democrats the same offramp in December. The decision by McConnell this week to open the door to a short-term debt extension earned him an unusually intense level of criticism from the Senate GOP caucus, including behind-the-scenes breaks with members of his own leadership team. It also set off an hours-long, down-to-the-wire effort to lock down the 10 GOP votes that would be needed to help advance the debt ceiling extension, after conservatives including Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) insisted on it needing to overcome the 60-vote procedural hurdle. Republicans were further frustrated on Thursday night by Schumer, who railed against them right after 11 of them voted to advance the debt ceiling bill. Schumer blasted the GOP debt ceiling strategy, accusing them of playing a "dangerous and risky partisan game" and saying Democrats were able to "pull our country back from the cliff's edge that Republicans tried to push us over." The move angered several GOP senators as well as Manchin. Manchin and GOP Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and GOP Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) were among the senators who spoke to Schumer after the speech, with Thune telling reporters that "I let him have it." McConnell appeared to reference Manchin, who could be seen briefly with his hands over his face during Schumer's speech. "Last night, in a bizarre spectacle, Senator Schumer exploded in a rant that was so partisan, angry, and corrosive that even Democratic Senators were visibly embarrassed by him and for him. This tantrum encapsulated and escalated a pattern of angry incompetence from Senator Schumer," McConnell wrote. “I am writing to make it clear that in light of Senator Schumer’s hysterics and my grave concerns about the ways that another vast, reckless, partisan spending bill would hurt Americans and help China, I will not be a party to any future effort to mitigate the consequences of Democratic mismanagement," he added.

House to vote Tuesday on debt limit hike - The House will interrupt a scheduled recess next week to vote Tuesday on Senate-passed legislation to extend the debt limit into December. The House, which had been long scheduled to be out of session this week and next coinciding with the Columbus Day holiday, is expected to quickly resume its recess as soon as lawmakers clear the debt limit extension Tuesday night. The House was otherwise scheduled to be out of session until Oct. 19, which is the day after the Treasury Department has estimated the U.S. would default on its debts if Congress hasn’t acted by then. “The Speaker [Nancy Pelosi] and I have both spoken with Treasury Secretary Yellen, who said that if the House fails to act next week, the country will be unable to pay its bills. This cannot happen. Therefore, the House will convene on Tuesday, October 12, to pass this stopgap measure, and I expect we will complete our work that evening,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said in a statement. “It is egregious that our nation has been put in this spot, but we must take immediate action to address the debt limit and ensure the full faith and credit of the United States remains intact,” Hoyer continued. Earlier Thursday, the Senate passed a short-term debt limit extension in a vote that divided Republicans who had previously vowed to oppose any measure to prevent a default because they want Democrats to use the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process on their own. While the bill passed along party lines, 50-48, 11 Republicans voted with Democrats to overcome a procedural hurdle that required 60 votes. The House passed legislation twice in the last few weeks to suspend the debt limit into December 2022, first as part of a government funding bill and later as a stand-alone measure. The debt limit suspension was removed from the government funding bill last week so that lawmakers could prevent a shutdown on Oct. 1. House leaders sent members off for recess last Friday, after a tense week in which Democrats postponed a planned vote on the roughly $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. But with the debt limit impasse still unresolved when House members left town last week, Hoyer’s office advised that they would get 72 hours’ notice if they needed to act on legislation before their scheduled return on Oct. 19.

Biden Says Democrats Should Delay Infrastructure Vote Until Deal Reached Wall Street Journal —President Biden called on House Democrats to hold off on voting on a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure bill until after they reach an agreement on a separate social-policy and climate bill, moving to again delay final passage of a central piece of his own agenda in a bid to unify restive Democrats.Even as Mr. Biden endorsed progressives’ push to hold up a vote on the infrastructure bill, however, he acknowledged in a closed-door meeting with House Democrats on Friday that the price tag of the social-policy and climate bill would need to drop substantially below $3.5 trillion to closer to roughly $2 trillion, according to lawmakers and aides.The infrastructure bill “ain’t going to happen until we reach an agreement on the next piece of legislation,” Mr. Biden told House Democrats, according to a person familiar with his remarks. Exiting the meeting, Mr. Biden told reporters: “It doesn’t matter whether it’s in six minutes, six days or six weeks. We’re going to get it done.” The House took up a short-term extension of existing transportation programs, instead of the infrastructure bill, passing it 365-51 on Friday night.The presidential visit to Capitol Hill appeared to defuse, at least temporarily, a standoff between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party, who have feuded for weeks over Mr. Biden’s agenda. Progressives have threatened to block the infrastructure bill if it comes to the floor before Democrats have unified around a broader social-policy bill that includes initiatives on education, healthcare and climate. Centrists in turn have demanded a vote on infrastructure and raised concerns about the price of the social-policy and climate bill, including about its proposed tax increases.“I think he sent two practical realities: one is that we have to get to an agreement on reconciliation and it’s not going to be $3.5 [trillion] and two, that that’s going to be necessary to get an infrastructure bill across the finish line,” said Rep. Derek Kilmer (D., Wash.).The fraught intraparty negotiations are a reflection of the narrow majorities Democrats hold in Congress. Democrats can’t afford a single defection in the 50-50 Senate, and they can no lose no more than three votes in the House.They are pursuing a process called reconciliation to approve the social-policy and climate bill without GOP support in the Senate, where legislation would otherwise require 60 votes to advance. Republicans have called the social-policy proposal wasteful and potentially damaging to the economy.Democrats initially had set the social-policy and climate bill at $3.5 trillion, though Mr. Biden told House Democrats that negotiations with centrists would likely bring its cost in the range of roughly $2 trillion, according to lawmakers and aides. Lawmakers said Mr. Biden mentioned possible toplines from the bill ranging from $1.9 trillion to $2.3 trillion.“Even a smaller bill can make historic investments,” Mr. Biden told House Democrats, according to two people familiar with his remarks. “He said what we all know is true, that $3.5 [trillion] has to come down,” said Rep. Peter Welch (D., Vt.) “I was glad to hear him say this—that we can make progress with a lower number.”

Biden adviser: 'People will not get everything they want' in congressional negotiations -Cedric Richmond, President Biden's senior adviser and a former member of the House, told NBC News' Chuck Todd during Sunday's edition of Meet the Press that not everyone will be completely satisfied once Democrats are done haggling over the White House's hotly-contested legislative agenda. Todd's question revolved around some harsh words from Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who suggested she doesn't believe there's enough trust within the Democratic Party after House Speaker pushed back the deadline on a House vote for the Senate's bipartisan infrastructure bill. Sinema is among the more centrist Democratic lawmakers who do not believe that package should necessarily be tied to the more expensive and sweeping reconciliation bill the party is trying pass. Richmond didn't sound too worried about Sinema's warnings, instead chalking up the tension to a natural outcome for these situations. As all sides within the party look to iron out some sort of deal in the coming weeks, it's just reality that "people will be disappointed," Richmond said. "People will not get everything they want. That is the art of legislating." Ultimately, though, he said "the goal here is to get both bills, and we're going to fight until we get both bills."

Democrats will be 'disappointed' as party pares agenda, White House advisor says (Reuters) — Democrats will be disappointed as the party is forced to scale back President Joe Biden’s sweeping infrastructure and social agenda amid opposition from Republicans and some moderate members of his party, a senior White House advisor said on Sunday. “People will be disappointed. People will not get everything they want, that is the art of legislating, but the goal here is to get both bills, and we’re going to fight until we get both bills,” Cedric Richmond, director of the White House Office of Public Engagement, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” Richmond, a former member of the House of Representatives, spoke two days after Biden visited the Capitol on Friday to try to end a fight between moderates and progressives in his Democratic Party that has threatened the two bills that make up the core of his domestic agenda – an infrastructure bill and a multi-trillion-dollar social spending bill. A sweeping bill intended to bolster the social safety net and fight climate change will need to be pared from a $3.5 trillion goal, perhaps to closer to $2 trillion, Democrats said following Biden’s visit. Moderate Democrats, particularly Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, have refused to support the larger number. Manchin has said he could accept a bill closer to $1.5 trillion, while Sinema has not committed publicly to a number. After earlier agreeing at moderates’ urging to hold a House vote last week on a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that passed the Senate in an August bipartisan vote, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi canceled the vote at the urging of progressives who want both bills to move in unison. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Sunday the goal is to get both the infrastructure and social spending bills done in the next month. Congress also needs to act in the next month to prevent the federal government from a catastrophic debt default. The influential chair of the 95-member Congressional Progressive Caucus, Representative Pramila Jayapal, said on Sunday an acceptable range for the social spending bill would be somewhere between $1.5 trillion and $3.5 trillion. Moderate Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has said his top line for the package is $1.5 trillion, but Jayapal told CNN: “That’s not gonna happen. Because that’s too small to get our priorities in. So, it’s gonna be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 (trillion dollars).” Progressive Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, told ABC News Sunday that $3.5 trillion “should be a minimum. But I accept there is going to have to be give and take.”

Right-wing Democrats dictate cuts in Biden social policy - The Biden administration has responded to pressure from a right-wing minority among House and Senate Democrats by slashing its proposed social spending increase nearly in half. Biden delivered the news to a closed-door meeting of the House Democratic caucus Friday afternoon, telling them the overall cost of the reconciliation bill would come down from the $3.5 trillion proposed by the White House to between $1.9 trillion and $2.3 trillion, far closer to the $1.5 trillion ceiling backed by West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin. Manchin and Arizona Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema have opposed passage of the social spending legislation by means of the reconciliation procedure, which allows the Democrats to bypass a Republican filibuster in the closely divided Senate. The procedure can only be used on a spending bill, and only once in a fiscal year. The House Progressive Caucus, which comprises nearly half the 220 Democrats in the House of Representatives, has blocked passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill, approved in August by the Senate, until the two right-wing Senate Democrats reach agreement with the White House on the reconciliation package. Their opposition forced House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to push back a planned September 27 vote on the infrastructure bill, agreed to with another small right-wing faction of Democrats in the House, first until October 1, and then until October 31, a decision she announced in a letter made public Saturday. Biden made his in-person visit to the Capitol, his first since delivering a nationally televised address last April, to discuss the deadlock with the Democratic caucus. He brought something for both factions: a fig-leaf concession on procedure to the “progressives” and a near-total victory on substance to the right-wing. Biden endorsed Pelosi’s delay in the infrastructure vote, despite grumbling from some of the House right-wingers, explaining that it was necessary to reach a deal with Manchin and Sinema on the reconciliation bill so the two pieces of legislation could be passed “in tandem.” But he went much more than halfway towards Manchin on substance, giving him an effective veto over the top-line number. This cave-in to a small minority—two out of 50 Democrats in the Senate, eight out of 220 in the House—cannot be explained by parliamentary arithmetic in a closely divided Congress. The power of Manchin, Sinema and their counterparts in the House is explained by their voicing most clearly the demands of corporate America, particularly in their opposition to tax increases on the wealthy and big business, as well as any significant expansion of the social safety net.

White House adviser says there's no timeline on votes to pass Biden's agenda --Senior White House adviser Cedric Richmond told "Fox News Sunday" there is no prescribed timeline for passing key pieces of President Biden's legislative agenda, Politico reports. A vote on the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill was set to take place Thursday but was ultimately delayed indefinitely as lawmakers continue hashing out a deal on Biden's larger reconciliation package.Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for freeBiden on Friday said the two bills must remain linked, scuttling the hopes of moderates who hoped to pass the infrastructure bill on its own."[W]e’re not using an artificial timeline, and we’re not concerned with process,” Richmond said. “We’re concerned about delivering.”Richmond also told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday that Congress will continue working on both the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the soft-infrastructure reconciliation bill simultaneously."People will be disappointed. People will not get everything they want. That is the art of legislating," he warned on "Meet the Press."Of note: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) also told "Meet the Press" on Sunday that there's no clear deadline for passing the bills, reiterating that negotiations are a "long and complicated process. ... It's not going to happen overnight."

No clear target as US Democrats gear up to pare back infrastructure, social spending - Democrats in Congress have the task of paring back the White House's sweeping infrastructure and social agenda. But, they are yet to agree on a target size for their multi-trillion-dollar spending bill. The Democrats on Friday said they intended to bolster the social safety net and fight climate change will need to be trimmed from a $3.5 trillion goal to $2 trillion. Centrist Democrat Joe Manchin said his top cap for the package is $1.5 trillion. His fellow moderate Democrat Krysten Sinema hasn't stated a number. Biden, who travels to Michigan on Tuesday to rally support for the bill said that he will “work like hell” to get the legislative package passed. Michigan has a congressional delegation that in some ways represents the broad scope of the Democratic party, from moderate Representative Elissa Slotkin to progressive Representative Rashida Tlaib, a Reuters report reads. “People will not get everything they want, that is the art of legislating, but the goal here is to get both bills, and we’re going to fight until we get both bills,” Cedric Richmond, director of the White House Office of Public Engagement, told NBC. Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Manchin is pushing for sole jurisdiction in the Senate over the $150 billion Clean Electricity Performance Program, which would provide grants to utilities that increase their share of clean energy sources. “Natural gas is a fossil fuel. Natural gas is a terrible global warming gas … and it has no place in such a program, otherwise, it becomes a bill to subsidize fossil fuel when we want to subsidize renewable energy,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley.

Climate Advocates Voice Concerns Over Fossil Fuel Handouts in Stalled Infrastructure Legislation - “Blah, blah, blah … Build back better. Blah, blah, blah …” Greta Thunberg, the Swedish climate activist, said this week, taking a jab at President Biden’s signature legislative agenda, which is currently imperiled by disagreements within his own party. The pair of bills — a $1 trillion infrastructure package that passed the Senate with bipartisan support and the $3.5 trillion Build Back Better Act filled with social and climate program expansions — purports to take on climate change, but Thunberg dismissed the legislation in her comments during the opening session of the Youth4Climate event in Milan, Italy, on September 28. She added, “This is all we hear from our so-called leaders: Net zero by 2025. By 2050! Words that sound great, but so far have led to no action.” Where such action will come from depends on whom you ask. Many progressive American politicians support passing both the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Build Back Better Act as a move in the right direction on climate. However, critics say that funding in both proposals will let the fossil fuel industry off the hook and allow it to create new infrastructure that is incompatible with meaningful climate action.Five advocacy groups, for instance, wrote in a recent letter to Congressional Democratic leaders, “The inclusion of a carbon tax … gives a green light for the biggest climate scofflaws to pay to pollute and maintain a harmful status quo. We urge you to oppose a carbon tax and instead pursue other revenue streams to pay for critical infrastructure, such as eliminating fossil fuel subsidies.” Gov. Edwards is the type of “so-called leader” Thunberg was referring to in her speech about words but not action. On August 19, 2020, he issued an executive order on climate change, committing Louisiana to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Those plans heavily rely on approaches backed by the fossil fuel industry, a powerful lobby in the state, which include carbon capture and hydrogen fuel made from natural gas. Critics warn both will likely add to the problemof climate change.The Build Back Better Act and the infrastructure package do include billions of dollars in funding for climate resilience, allocating tens of billions for flood protection against wildfires and the development of new sources for drinking water in drought-stricken areas of the county, as well as funds to relocate communities in areas threatened by sea-level rise. However, critics warn the pair of bills also direct billions to the fossil fuel industry to create new infrastructure projects for carbon capture and hydrogen fuel made from natural gas, neither of which are commercially viable technologies. Instead, critics such as Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann say such approaches give oil, gas, and coal companies a lifeline instead of incentivizing a transition to renewable energy.“These tactics are straight out of The New Climate War that I write about: politicians using soothing promises of future technology that will magically fix the problem, as an excuse for ‘business as usual’ by carbon polluters,” Mann wrote via email. “The supposed ‘bi-partisan’ infrastructure package could potentially leave us worse off on climate through big giveaways to the fossil fuel industry in the form of subsidies — both direct and indirect — that actually increase the unfair advantage they have over clean energy producers.” He adds, “What we really need is for congress to pass the ‘Build Back Better’ reconciliation package, which supports meaningful climate action, with the climate provisions intact.” However, some advocacy groups including the Indigenous Environmental Network, Climate Justice Alliance, and Grassroots Global Justice Alliance have come out against both major pieces of legislation since they contend that each one includes some form of fossil fuel subsidies.

So How Far Will House Progressives Retreat to Get a Version of Biden’s “Build Back Better” Program -Yves Smith - Before we get to taking stock of where the effort to salvage Biden’s big legislative initiative stands, the “Build Back Better” label’s abject lameness signifies why negotiations among House progressives and moderates, the Senate, and the White House went off the rails. If the “back” part was openly “Back to the New Deal,” it might make a smidge of sense to the great unwashed public. But a grab bag of social and climate change programs, which is stuff many voters ought to like if explained properly, instead has such a flabby name that there’s good reason to wonder whether it’s a very pricey but largely empty box. And the focus in the press and even among many of the principals, on the price and not the content, has only reinforced this concern. Yes, the House progressives not only drew blood, but even got Joe Biden to trek to the House to pour oil on the water. However, the progressives are already retreating. Do not forget that the progressives already made the concession of agreeing to reduce the top line for the “Build Back Better” bill to $3.5 trillion over ten years, down from the original $6 trillion, in return for having the bill passed in tandem (via reconciliation) with the smaller, supposedly $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which represents only $550 billion in new spending. The Senate effectively reneged on both by sending only the infrastructure bill on and insisting it be passed on an up/down vote, no amendments. Even after Biden’s lèse-majesté appearance, he and Pelosi were not on the same page, with Biden trying to appear relaxed about the progressive revolt and saying the legislature could take all the time it needed to sort his bills out, versus Pelosi in wrangler mode, saying there would be a new vote within a month. Narrowly this is correct since at a minimum Congress would need another extension by then to transportation funding to prevent furloughs. Biden was also not too subtly for the moment backing the progressives as his best hope for getting his big deal through, while at the same time telling them to walk their ask way back, to less than half of the difference between their $3.5 trillion ask and Manchin’s $1.5 trillion bid. Per Politico:Biden sought to lower those expectations in the meeting Friday, where he discussed a price tag for the legislation between $1.9 trillion and $2.3 trillion, implying that it could win the backing from Senate moderates. Progressives, who had previously balked at the idea of a lower price tag, rallied around it afterward.The Sunday talk shows confirmed that the progressives were capitulating: Jayapal tries to maintain that she’s not negotiating against herself as she does precisely that. She’s abandoned the $3.5 trillion while trying to pretend that shifting the grounds of the negotiation from dollars to content is not to finesse a further retreat.Sanders has also conceded: AOC effectively admits that Manchin and Sinema hold the cards and follows the new line that the numbers could be finessed by shorter sunset periods for new programs:Wellie, this strategy won’t work so well for climate change programs, since private sector types will be more reluctant to commit resources to programs that might go poof in five years. And as in the assumption that any social spending program won’t be rolled back because it will become popular? It depends who the constituency is. A fair chunk of the new social social spending is directed at low income families, particularly an extension of annual tax credit for children. The Hill described it as “The largest anti-poverty program in a half century, a permanent expansion of this tax credit would increase after-tax income of the bottom quintile of families by 14.5 percent in 2022.” If you think if the Republicans ever get in charge that they won’t either let it die or mean-test it into a much smaller scheme, you are smoking something strong.

Biden indicates he would sign reconciliation bill with Hyde amendment - President Biden indicated Tuesday that he would sign Democrats’ reconciliation bill even if it included the Hyde amendment, a controversial provision that bars federal funds from being used for most abortions. “I’d sign it either way,” Biden told reporters Tuesday evening when asked if he would sign the bill if the Hyde amendment were included, a demand of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). The White House has said that Biden opposes the Hyde amendment. Manchin’s demand that the amendment be included in the reconciliation package has emerged as a new hurdle in negotiations over the bill. “Yeah, we’re not taking the Hyde amendment off. Hyde’s going to be on,” Manchin told National Review last week. “It has to be. It has to be. That’s dead on arrival if that’s gone.” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said she would not vote for a bill that includes the Hyde amendment. “The Hyde amendment is something that the majority of the country does not support,” Jayapal said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “One in four women have had an abortion and need to have reproductive care in a very, very important time, when those protections are being rolled back.” White House press secretary Jen Psaki reiterated Monday that Biden opposes the Hyde amendment, which prevents Medicaid and other federal programs from covering the costs of abortions, except in cases of rape, incest or when the pregnant person’s life is endangered. “I'm not going to negotiate the package from here, but, as you know, the president opposes the Hyde amendment,” Psaki told reporters on Monday when asked about Manchin’s demand. “That has not changed.” Democrats are currently locked in negotiations over the reconciliation package. Manchin has objected to the initial price tag of $3.5 trillion, and Biden has indicated that the overall cost will need to come down in order to appease the senator and other moderates.

Biden says infrastructure bills must pass at 'inflection point' for US - President Biden on Tuesday said the United States sat at an “inflection point” in terms of economic competitiveness, arguing passage of his agenda is necessary to ensure adversaries do not surpass the nation. Biden traveled to Michigan as negotiations with congressional Democrats inch along on passage of a bipartisan infrastructure bill and a larger package including investments in health care, education and climate-friendly industries. The president argued America had “taken our foot off the gas” on investing in infrastructure and education as he pitched his agenda to an audience of Democratic lawmakers in a critical swing state. “These bills are not about left versus right or moderate versus progressive or anything that pits Americans against one another,” Biden said in a speech at International Union of Operating Engineers Local 324 training facility in Howell, Mich. “These bills are about competitiveness versus complacency. They’re about opportunity versus decay. They’re about leading the world or continuing to let the world pass us by.” “To support these investments is to create a rising America,” Biden added, before offering a warning shot at opponents of his agenda. “To oppose these investments is to be complicit in America’s decline.” The president’s remarks came at a key juncture for his agenda. Congress must raise the debt ceiling in the coming days or risk defaulting, and Democrats are haggling over the details of a large reconciliation package in the hopes of passing that bill and an infrastructure bill containing $579 billion in new spending by the end of the month. Biden tried to cut through what he described as “hyperbole” in Washington about Democratic infighting over his agenda, while highlighting aspects of both bills, including money to make physical infrastructure more resilient, expand access to childcare, provide free prekindergarten and community college, and extend the child tax credit expansion. Biden also emphasized that the bills would be spread out over 10 years and insisted the larger package would be paid for by hiking taxes on the rich and corporations, seeking to counter Republican attacks against his “tax and spend” agenda. “The only thing we’ve been missing is the will from Washington to finally build an economy around you, an economy that gives you and your family a fighting chance to get ahead, gives our country a fighting chance to compete with the rest of the world,” Biden said. “We can’t get here thinking small.”Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, a Michigan native, argued in a statement that Biden's agenda would lead to higher taxes and "financial ruin for small businesses."

What Joe Manchin wants, decoded - The Washington Post -Liberal Democrats saw a small victory last week on top of delaying the vote on the bipartisan infrastructure plan: They drew out one of the holdouts on a separate spending bill — the one they most want and that will require only Democratic votes — to declare his top-line figure on the cost.Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) disclosed to members of his caucus that the number is $1.5 trillion, far below the $3.5 trillion the liberals wanted to spend.But the disagreement over top-line funding hides what could be a much bigger fight about the programs in the bill. We also learned about a memo, dated July 28 and first reported by Politico last week, from Manchin to Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), in which he outlined his priorities on the spending bill beyond the dollar figure. The specifics there and in his recent statements telegraph more difficulties ahead for Democrats.The memo, which you can see in full here, is a one-page, double-spaced list written in a rudimentary fashion, with a heavy dose of Senate jargon.It’s worth decoding six items on his list to understand what Manchin, whose vote is necessary to pass any party-line proposal in the 50-50 Senate, wants and doesn’t want. These also show us where it could be hardest to get to a final deal.

1. No new programs. “No additional handouts outs or transfer payments” is the line in the memo that sets up perhaps the biggest standoff to come for Democrats.Liberals have known since August that they might have to slash the overall cost of their proposal, and most expected they could just shorten the length of the ambitious programs they would authorize.
2. He wants the spending to be more targeted to benefit low-income Americans. “Needs based with means testing guardrails/formulas on new spending” is a jumble of bureaucrat speak, but those words formed the foundation of Manchin’s concerns about the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP) that he ultimately supported in March, a massive bill designed to help with the pandemic recovery that passed with only Democratic votes.
3. He wants to bolster his own control over energy regulations, “Sole ENR jurisdiction on any clean energy standard” might be the most insider of insider demands in the July 28 memo. Simply put, Manchin wants to be fully in control of any new mandates or regulations of the coal and energy industry that has fueled his state’s economy for more than a century. ENR stands for Energy and Natural Resources Committee — the panel whose chairman is none other than Manchin.
4. He’s on board with paying for the plan by raising taxes on the wealthy. “Offsets Conditions” is Manchin speak for taxes, the revenue Democrats want to raise to finance their sweeping plan. And on this, the senator from a rural state with high poverty is actually a bit closer to most of his Democratic colleagues than on the other proposals.
5. He wants Congress to step in on ‘easy money’ — but that’s not its job. He is demanding President Biden and Democratic leaders achieve something that is beyond their reach and that they are forbidden from doing: forcing the independent Federal Reserve to stop its policy of encouraging low interest rates, which started in the wake of the 2008 Wall Street implosion.
6. He left himself an escape hatch. Manchin put the last line of his memo in bold: “Senator Manchin does not guarantee that he will vote for the final reconciliation legislation if it exceeds the conditions outlined in this agreement.”

Manchin opens door to deal in range of $1.9T to $2.2T - Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Tuesday signaled he is open to a budget reconciliation bill in the ballpark of $1.9 trillion to $2.2 trillion, above the limit he set just last week of $1.5 trillion. Manchin and his fellow moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) are still far apart from liberals such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) who thought the upper chamber had a deal to spend $3.5 trillion on President Biden’s human infrastructure package, but the two sides are inching closer. “I’m not ruling anything out, but the bottom line is I want to make sure that we’re strategic and we do the right job and we don’t basically add more to the concerns we have right now,” Manchin told reporters Tuesday.It was a small departure from his position last week when he announced: “My top-line has been $1.5 [trillion].” He also told reporters last week that he doesn’t want “to change our whole society to an entitlement mentality.” Manchin’s comments last week sparked a backlash from progressives, though his Democratic Senate colleagues have been careful not to criticize him for fear of angering a key vote. But while Manchin has signaled some flexibility on the top-line number, there are a number of significant disagreements still to resolve with fellow Democrats. One major sticking point is his insistence that the reconciliation bill include the Hyde Amendment, which prohibits using federal funds for abortion expenses. Warren has criticized the Hyde Amendment as disproportionately affecting low-income women since it prohibits Medicaid from funding abortion. Another major difference is Manchin’s insistence that natural gas be eligible for grants under the $150 billion Clean Electricity Performance Program, a core component of the reconciliation bill’s attempt to combat climate change. Environmentalists and congressional Democrats have slammed electricity production from natural gas without the use of carbon-capture technology as wholly unproductive to the goal of stopping global warming. Manchin has also balked at a carbon tax, an idea being pushed hard by Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Chris Coons (D-Del.) and other Democrats. The West Virginia senator is worried it could be used to eliminate jobs in the coal industry, which historically has been a major employer in his state.

Sanders to Manchin, Sinema: 'Tell us what you want' in spending fight --Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Wednesday aired his frustration with moderate Democrats, arguing they should be more specific about what they want in a fight over a sweeping social spending plan. Sanders convened a press conference Wednesday to fire back at Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) after the centrist Democrat told reporters earlier in the day that $1.5 trillion was his top-line on the spending fight and warned against creating an "entitlement" society. "The time is long overdue for him to tell us with specificity, not generalities, we're beyond generalities... what he wants and what he does not want, and explain that to the people of West Virginia," Sanders told reporters. Sanders also made a similar demand of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), when a reporter asked about the moderate Democrat. Sanders noted that he had seen reports that Sinema was opposed to certain tax increases, but hadn't heard specifics from her. “Senator Sinema’s position is that she does not negotiate publicly. I don’t know what that means… Don’t know where she’s coming from," Sanders said. He added that he would make the same request of Sinema that he's making of Manchin: "Tell us what you want." But most of Sanders' nearly 15-minute press conference was focused on Manchin, who is on the opposite side of the Democratic caucus from Sanders. Though the two men are both on Schumer's leadership team, former aides have characterized them as having little working history or personal relationship Sanders, during the press conference, went through a laundry list of programs Democrats are hoping to include in their spending package including drug reforms, new childcare programs, paid family leave and expanding Medicare to cover hearing, vision and dental. "Does Senator Manchin really believe that seniors are not entitled to digest their food, and they're not entitled to hear and see properly? Is that really too much to ask?" Sanders asked. Sanders and Manchin are also deeply divided on the potential top-line for the Democratic spending package. Progressives wanted a bill of $6 trillion and viewed $3.5 trillion as a compromise. Manchin, however, told reporters on Wednesday morning that $1.5 trillion was his top-line for the spending bill. "My number has been $1.5. I've been very clear," he said. "I've been very clear when it comes to who we are as a society, who we are as a nation. ... I don't believe that we should turn our society into an entitlement society. I think we should still be a compassionate, rewarding society," Manchin said. But Sanders argued that most of the Senate Democratic caucus supported a $3.5 trillion top-line for their spending bill. "I'm not here to disparage Senator Manchin," Sanders said. "[But] we've got 48 senators who support $3.5 trillion. We have two people who don't." "It is wrong, it is really not playing fair, that one or two people think they should be able to stop what 48 members of the Democratic caucus wants, what the American people want, what the president of the United States wants," he said. "Two people do not have a right to sabotage what 48 want."

Dems fear chopping block for EJ, lead pipes, climate corps - When congressional Democrats and the Biden administration launched their multitrillion-dollar infrastructure push earlier this year, support grew quickly on Capitol Hill for the creation of a new Civilian Climate Corps. Modeled after the New Deal-era Civilian Conservation Corps, the green jobs placement and training program was widely embraced on both sides of the Capitol by Democrats of all political stripes, as well as President Biden. But despite its popularity, funding for the CCC and other programs remains an open question in the delicate reconciliation push. With the White House negotiating the broader reconciliation bill downward from its current $3.5 trillion price tag to a level acceptable to Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), sources close to the talks say Democrats are wrestling with how to best prioritize spending on climate given that the reconciliation package is expected to shrink by as much as a third — and possibly more. The reality of a smaller bill is prompting new scrutiny for the suite of policies under consideration for reconciliation. The CCC, environmental justice provisions and lead pipe mediation, among other proposals, could fall victim to Democratic priorities on climate deemed most essential — specifically, those that target emissions cuts. Backed by like-minded advocates, progressives initially called for more than $130 billion to launch the climate-focused jobs program. That lofty ask was scaled down to $30 billion last month (E&E Daily, Sept. 22). The House ultimately funded the CCC at $10 billion, and while the Senate is said to favor at least a $30 billion allocation, key supporters said yesterday that figure is likely to further shrink amid the haggling over the cost of the reconciliation package. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) acknowledged the dilemma yesterday. “Emissions reduction, obviously, is the goal we need to achieve for the sake of safety,” he told E&E News. “To be clear, I support a Civilian Climate Corps. It just doesn’t measurably reduce emissions.” Compounding matters is uncertainty over the Clean Electricity Payment Program (CEPP) — a central feature of meeting Biden’s emissions reductions goals — as well as a long-shot bid to institute a carbon pricing and border adjustment scheme. Amid the uncertainty over a topline, Democrats also fear that other environmental ambitions, including ambitious environmental justice funding targets and Biden’s goal to replace all lead pipes, may be on the chopping block as well. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY.) conceded yesterday Democrats would have to make a series of trade-offs to get the package passed. "Just about everyone will be disappointed in some things, just about everyone will be pleased with some things," he told reporters. “But we’ll get it done.”

Cutting the reconciliation bill to $1.5 trillion would support nearly 2 million fewer jobs per year - - EPI -Congress may have bought itself another month to negotiate over the Biden-Harris administration’s Build Back Better (BBB) agenda, but one thing is clear: Further reducing the scale and scope of the budget reconciliation package unequivocally means the legislation will support far fewer jobs and deliver fewer benefits to lift up working families and boost the economy as a whole.How much will such compromise cost the U.S. economy? We crunched the numbers to find out what compromising on the BBB plan will mean for every state and congressional district in the United States. If the budget reconciliation package is cut from $3.5 trillion to $1.5 trillion—as Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has called for—nearly 2 million fewer jobs per year would be supported.In a previous analysis, we showed that the BBB agenda—combining the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework and the proposed $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package—would support more than 4 million jobsannually. It would also make critical investments that would deliver relief to financially strained households, raise productivity, and dampen inflation pressures to enhance America’s long-term economic growth prospects. David Brooks, the center-right New York Times columnist, recently captured the significance of these initiatives when he wrote that these are “economic packages that serve moral and cultural purposes. They should be measured by their cultural impact, not merely by some wonky analysis. In real, tangible ways, they would redistribute dignity back downward.”Senators Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) are intent on scaling back Build Back Better’s purpose. While Sen. Sinema has not publicly staked a position outlining her objections, Sen. Manchin has telegraphed a top-line spending figure of $1.5 trillion as the maximum he would support.The $2 trillion gap left by Manchin’s proposal cuts far deeper than any of the policy specifics he proposes eliminating. Even if he succeeded in eliminating all climate-related funding in the BBB agenda budget resolution, for example, Manchin’s plan would still fall nearly $1.8 trillion short. Thus, for the purpose of our analysis, it makes most sense to assume that hewing to Sen. Manchin’s demands would mean a proportional cut across all of the BBB agenda’s individual initiatives (more on the methodologies used here and here).Besides delivering fewer tangible benefits to typical families, scaling back Build Back Better also severely compromises the package’s value as macroeconomic insurance against recovery waning in the coming years.Absent the Build Back Better package, there is no guarantee of robust growth once the provisions of the American Rescue Plan—enacted in March of this year—begin fading out in earnest in mid-2022. The U.S. economy is not out of the woods yet. In past instances, policymakers have too often erred on the side of withdrawing fiscal support too early, resulting in protracted recoveries and prolonged spells of elevated unemployment, which ultimately undercut America’s future economic potential. The BBB package would counter a potential slump and effectively support millions of jobs, especially if a host of plausible scenarios occur, including:

if private spending fails to sustain growth after the American Rescue Plan fades;
if the pandemic evolves and continues weighing on economic activity;
or if other unforeseen shocks to the economy emerge and threaten a robust recovery.

Scaling back the plan now, as Sens. Manchin and Sinema would like, will support millions fewer than the original package. In total, Sen. Manchin’s proposal would support nearly 1.9 million fewer jobs per year than the Build Back Better agenda. Full results for each state and congressional district can be downloaded hereand in the figures and table below.

Hidden in the Reconciliation Bill, a Mandate - Michael Smith on the Open Thread: “‘Found this interesting. Tucked in the reconciliation bill they want to mandate employers with 5+ employees to contribute up to 10% to an IRA. Failure to do so is ‘taxed’.” Hidden In The Reconciliation Bill: A Retirement Plan Mandate That Will Take Most People By Surprise, Forbes, Elizabeth Bauer, September 25, 2021 “Under the proposal, starting in 2023, employers with five or more employees would have to offer a retirement plan and automatically enroll employees, diverting 6% of their pay to a retirement account. An automatic escalation clause would increase the automatic contribution to 10% of pay by year five. The default plan would be a Roth IRA invested in a target-date fund, a mix of investments based on your expected retirement year.“For employers, it’s a mandate. They would have to offer the plans. Employees would be able to opt out.” I found this to be an interesting comment. It does raise a point in my mind.We have issues with retirement, Social Security needs a hit and health care needs a hit to make it equitable for all. Both Social Security and Medicare are successful government programs. Why not expand Medicare and transform it into Single Payer eliminating much of the commercial waste and fix the Social Security Trust Fund.Why feed Wall Street when they will take their cut, which they take now, with 401Ks. IRAs, etc.? Providing better Social Security at 2% more withholding for an employer and 2% for employee “could solve much of the retirement issue and another 1% or 2% for Medicare. Treasury Bills are far safer than a Wall Street which takes their profits regardless of an investment being profitable or not.We can not afford an increase in SS withholding or provide better healthcare for all; but, we can provide Wall Street charity? And it is a giveaway.Why feed Wall Street when they still owe us for 2008?

‘This Is a Battle Between What People Need & What Money Wants.’ How’s That Going to End? - I want to put three ideas together and see if they synergize for you. The first is the latest tale of how the rich have organized the world so that only they are guaranteed success in it: The Pandora Papers is a leak of almost 12 million documents that reveals hidden wealth, tax avoidance and, in some cases, money laundering by some of the world’s rich and powerful.The Pandora Papers leak includes 6.4 million documents, almost three million images, more than a million emails and almost half-a-million spreadsheets.Stories revealed so far include:

• the prominent Tory donor who was involved in one of Europe’s biggest corruption scandals
• the King of Jordan’s £70m spending spree on properties in the UK and US through secretly-owned companies
• Azerbaijan’s leading family’s hidden involvement in property deals in the UK worth more than £400m
• the Czech prime minister’s failure to declare an offshore investment company used to purchase two French villas for £12m
• how the family of Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta’s secretly owned a network of offshore companies for decades

The files expose how some of the most powerful people in the world – including more than 330 politicians from 90 countries – use secret offshore companies to hide their wealth.They all do it. They all help each other do it. And no one intends to stop doing it because that’s simply how they live. Things will work this way forever unless an outside force, like the French or Russian revolution, confiscates their property and redistributes it, making them live differently because they have no other choice.I don’t think this is a rant. I think these are simply facts. The second is this fine catch by David Sirota on the reporting around the $3.5 trillion dollar Reconciliation package now before Congress: Everything he says here is right, but the bottom line comes near the start. When corporate reporters explain this story, money and the use of it to corrupt is written entirely out of it. According to them, for example, the vulture capital industry doesn’t buy Josh Gotheimer. At most, it “influences” him. Yet the fact is obvious: “[The reconciliation bill] is a battle between what people need and what money wants.” And this fact is also obvious: “Money is written out of the story.”If all you watch is corporate media, the corruption of money will never be part of the tale. Which leads to this more general observation from the great George Carlin:The news media are … a sort of bulletin board and public relations firm for the ruling class—the people who run things. Those who decide what news you will or will not hear are paid by, and tolerated purely at the whim of, those who hold economic power. If the parent corporation doesn’t want you to know something, it won’t be on the news. Period. Or, at the very least, it will be slanted to suit them, and then rarely followed up.In this media age, the professional and scientific manipulation of mass opinion through advertising and PR is, with a single possible exception, the greatest evil visited on the world in the whole of the Twentieth Century.

Democrats can't pass the PRO Act, so its buried in the reconciliation bill - Union membership has been declining for decades as workers find better uses than union dues for their hard-earned dollars. But union bosses and their supporters are trying to change the law to force hard-working Americans into unions. How? Through the Protecting the Right to Organize Act (PRO Act), a bill that would expand the power of union leaders at the expense of workers. After sailing through the House, the PRO Act now appears stalled in the Senate and Democrats are trying to slip some PRO Act provisions into a massive reconciliation bill. American workers are wise to turn down union membership. Union pension plans are in trouble. In 2020, the Labor Department listed 121 union plans in critical status, defined as less than 65 percent funded, and 61 in endangered status, with less than 80 percent funded. Unions desperately need new workers to join, because they pay contributions for many years without withdrawing money. Most recently, Amazon workers in Alabama resoundingly rejected efforts by the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store International Union to organize their plant, with more than 70 percent of workers voting against the union. The union’s plan was in critical status between 2015 and 2019, and the Labor Department informed the plan’s administrators that it had to be reorganized by reducing benefits and increasing contributions. Union leaders and their allies on Capitol Hill believe the way to increase membership after decades of decline is to pass elements of the PRO Act through reconciliation. Unlike the PRO Act, which needs 60 votes in the Senate to enable it to move to President Biden’s desk for signature, the reconciliation bill, which deals with taxes and spending, needs only a simple majority. So via a massive reconciliation bill, congressional Democrats are trying to move some labor union provisions of the PRO Act by arguing they are actually revenue raisers. Proposed penalties from the PRO Act include fining employers that hold staff meetings at which union organizing is discussed, and creating new fines of $50,000 per firm for unfair labor practices. Such fines could put small firms out of business or discourage them from challenging union organizing. Tax provisions are also in the reconciliation bill. One proposal is a deduction for union dues of up to $250 a year. Such a deduction shifts the burden of funding unions to the taxpayer. Another is a tax credit of $4,500 for purchasing a car made with union labor, such as a car by Ford, GM, or Stellantis (the new Chrysler). This disadvantages non-union auto manufacturers such as Tesla, Toyota, and Honda.

Biden eyes a trim and slash approach for cutting down his reconciliation bill - The White House is seriously entertaining the idea of across-the-board haircuts to most items in President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion social spending package. But even if the trim-everything strategy is predominantly employed, some programs would likely still have to be cut out completely, according to several sources who either took part in White House discussions or were briefed on its thinking. Which ones remain a topic of intense internal party debate, as Democrats look to find the best path forward to quickly pass the massive social and climate spending bill. Congressional leaders have not publicly weighed in on this strategy, although Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately said this week her members prefer a less-is-more approach — funding fewer programs but for a longer amount of time. One source familiar with White House thinking said it’s premature to say whether the White House is leaning toward a smaller number of programs for a longer number of years or maintaining as many as possible at a lower cost or for a shorter period of time. And another said the White House has been careful not to show its hand. But to carve down the package from $3.5 trillion over ten years to an expected range of $1.9 trillion to $2.3 trillion likely will require a two-pronged approach: a trim and a slash. “There's a constituency for every almond in the package,” said a source familiar with ongoing negotiations. “Stripping them entirely, if they're things that members of Congress are excited about, isn't viable.” The debate over whether to create a bevy of new short-term programs or a handful of more lasting programs has quickly become one of the Democrats’ most urgent issues as they craft Biden’s package. Democrats have to weigh a host of important priorities against each other, among them: massive expansion of Medicare coverage, delivering Medicaid to lower-income states, paid family leave, and child care programs. And the administration is up against the clock as it moves to reach an agreement across competing factions of the party. Progressives generally want to preserve as many of the programs as possible within the reconciliation package — forcing a future Congress to extend popular programs later. But many others in the party, including senior House Democrats and several vulnerable members, have argued that would tee up a series of painful political cliffs. And if Republicans are in charge, they could simply let those programs lapse, erasing Biden’s legacy. "For President Biden’s legacy, it’s important to make these longer-term investments and not have short-term cliffs,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), who leads the centrist New Democrat Coalition.

Jayapal says progressives don't have "red line" for cost of reconciliation bill - — Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, the head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said in an interview with CBSN's Tanya Rivero on Thursday that she and her progressive colleagues do not have a "red line" on the price tag for President Biden's proposal to expand the nation's social safety net, as Democratic leaders continue to search for consensus on the package. "It all depends on what's in there. That's why we're not giving any red line numbers on price tag, because the way that we came up with $3.5 [trillion] originally was by saying, this is what we want to include," said Jayapal, a Democrat from Washington. Senate Democrats reached a deal this summer on the $3.5 trillion price tag for the social spending package, which includes Democrats' and Mr. Biden's plans to expand Medicare, for paid family leave, free community college and universal pre-K. But Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, both moderate Democrats, have pushed back on the topline figure, arguing it is too high. Their opposition has complicated passage of the president's plan in the evenly divided Senate, as Democrats need support from all of their members in the upper chamber for the package to pass. Democrats are using a budget tool called reconciliation to fast-track the sweeping plan, which enables Senate approval without any Republican support. Democrats' internal squabbling over the social spending measure reached a fever pitch last week, as the House prepared to vote on a more targeted $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that has already cleared the Senate. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi scheduled the vote on the infrastructure plan to appease moderate House Democrats who wanted it to pass immediately, but the vote was delayed after Jayapal and her caucus threatened to derail the legislation, as they want the larger package to pass the Senate first. Now, Democrats have returned to their original two-track strategy for moving both pieces of legislation, which make up Mr. Biden's domestic policy agenda, through Congress together. The president has spent the week holding virtual meetings with groups of House Democrats, Jayapal among them, and dispatched senior aides to Capitol Hill to meet with senators with hopes of brokering a deal on the details of the social spending plan. Mr. Biden also met with Manchin at the White House on Thursday, and has hit the road to pitch his economic agenda to the American people, visiting Michigan on Tuesday and Illinois on Thursday. While the president set a price range of $1.9 trillion to $2.2 trillion for the wide-ranging social safety net package, Jayapal said Democrats first need to agree on what programs will be included in the bill and how long they should be funded. "We would be willing to trim the number a little bit by cutting back the years for some of these programs, but we want to make sure our priorities as we've articulated them are all contained within the bill," she told CBSN.

Republicans rip direct SBA lending in Dems' reconciliation bill: 'Inefficient, costly and inequitable' - Republican lawmakers lambasted Democratic leaders on Wednesday for including a provision in their sweeping reconciliation bill that would allocate billions to the Small Business Administration for direct lending, slamming it as a "costly" way to get loans into the hands of small businesses. In a letter to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 15 GOP senators – led by Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina – sounded the alarm over the authorization of nearly $4.5 billion over the next decade for the SBA to issue directly the popular 7(a) loans and $2.8 billion for 504 loans in the Democrats' $3.5 trillion tax and spending bill. Under the measure, small business owners would be able to go straight to the SBA to access the capital, rather than to private lenders and banks. "We believe this would be an inefficient, costly and inequitable position to put both lenders and borrowers," the Republicans wrote in the letter, which is also addressed to the Democratic small business chairs. The GOP lawmakers cited the vast discrepancy between the issuance of Paycheck Protection Program loans, which were administered by banks and other private institutions, and Economic Injury Disaster Loans, which were handled by the SBA. For instance, in fiscal year 2020, the SBA approved 42,402 7(a) loans worth about $22.6 billion through 1,673 lending partners, in addition to about 12 million PPP loans worth about $800 billion through 5,467 different lenders. The Republicans lauded the partnership between the SBA and private lenders as "massively successful" in getting money to small businesses struggling due to the pandemic. But they pointed to the high rate of fraud in the SBA's direct handling of the EIDL loans: The SBA Inspector General recently uncovered $78.1 billion in potentially fraudulent EIDL activity; at the same time, the SBA had, as of mid-September, disbursed $290 billion in COVID-19 EIDL loans and grants – meaning the fraud rate could be as high as 30%. By comparison, the potential fraud rate for PPP loans is estimated to be about 4.6%. The senators noted that PPP loans hinged on banks, credit unions, fintech and other private-sector lenders, while the EIDL program was entirely government-run. "This misguided liberal plan would take taxes from small business owners, and then lend it back to them with interest," Scott said in a statement to FOX Business. "It makes no sense. The private sector is simply much more efficient at running these programs than big government. This is yet another part of the Democrats’ massive plan to put the government in control of virtually every aspect of American life."

While Americans Sleep, Our Corporate Overlords Make Progress Impossible --Ralph Nader: “Polarization” is the word most associated with the positions of the Republicans and Democrats in Congress. The mass media and the commentators never tire of this focus, in part because such clashes create the flashes conducive to daily coverage.Politicians from both parties exploit voters who don’t do their homework on voting records and let the lawmakers use the people’s sovereign power (remember the Constitution’s “We the People”) against them on behalf of the big corporate bosses.The quiet harmony between the two parties created by the omnipresent power of Big Business and other powerful single-issue lobbyists is often the status quo. That’s why there are so few changes in this country’s politics.In many cases, the similarities of both major parties are tied to the fundamental concentration of power by the few over the many. In short, the two parties regularly agree on anti-democratic abuses of power. Granted, there are always a few exceptions among the rank & file. Here are some areas of Republican and Democrat concurrence:

1. The Duopoly shares the same stage on a militaristic, imperial foreign policy and massive unaudited military budgets. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Pentagon budget was voted out of a House committee by the Democrats and the GOP with $24 billion MORE than what President Biden asked for from Congress. Neither party does much of anything to curtail the huge waste, fraud, and abuse of corporate military contractors, or the Pentagon’s violation of federal law since 1992 requiring annual auditable data on DOD spending be provided to Congress, the president, and the public.
2. Both Parties allow unconstitutional wars violating federal laws and international treaties that we signed onto long ago, including restrictions on the use of force under the United Nations Charter.
3. Both Parties ignore the burgeoning corporate welfare subsidies, handouts, giveaways, and bailouts turning oceans of inefficient, mismanaged, and coddled profit-glutted companies into tenured corporate welfare Kings.
4. Both Parties decline to crack down on the nationwide corporate crime spree. They don’t even like to use the phrase “corporate crime” or “corporate crime wave.” They prefer to delicately allude to “white-collar crime.”

House committee pledges response to Calif. oil spill - House Democrats are moving quickly to ready a legislative response to last week’s devastating oil spill off California’s southern coastline. Yesterday, House Natural Resources Chair Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) announced his panel would devote two days next week to addressing the causes and implications of the incident, where a major pipeline released more than 144,000 gallons of crude oil into the waters near Huntington Beach, immediately risking local wetland and wildlife. Next Wednesday, Grijalva will preside over a markup of two bills: H.R. 2643, the "Offshore Pipeline Safety Act," and H.R. 570, the "Offshore Accountability Act." The "Offshore Pipeline Safety Act," championed by Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Calif.), would require the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement to issue regulations to improve the oversight of offshore pipelines and ensure pipelines be outfitted with leak detection systems. The "Offshore Accountability Act," introduced by Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.), would require offshore drilling operators to report major safety failures to the Interior secretary, who then would be required to share this information with the public. The very next day, the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources will meet to hold a hearing on the “Impacts of Abandoned Offshore Oil and Gas Infrastructure and the Need for Stronger Federal Oversight.” A press release announcing the new scheduled events cites the Huntington Beach oil spill, as well as an April report from the Government Accountability Office that concluded BSSE suffers from insufficient oversight of both active and abandoned offshore oil and gas pipelines, as reasons for taking action now. “The oil and gas industry has ignored public health and the environment for decades, and what’s happening in Huntington Beach today will keep happening to more American communities until Congress steps in,” Grijalva said in a statement. “As long as the industry is given a free hand to operate with impunity and dodge responsibility for the mess they cause and leave behind, there will be more disasters. This Committee is moving quickly to protect our coastlines and the communities that rely on them by setting the standards the industry refuses to set for itself.” While it’s unlikely these steps will be bipartisan — Republicans frequently criticize Democrats for imposing what they consider too onerous regulations on the oil and gas sector — Grijalva and fellow House Democrats are determined to use this recent oil disaster as an opportunity to highlight the urgency of their agenda at a pivotal moment (E&E Daily, Oct. 5).

Senators Push for Offshore Oil-Drilling Ban in Budget Reconciliation -- Democratic senators from California and the Pacific Northwest are calling for a total ban on all new fossil fuel drilling off the West Coast. In a letter sent Wednesday to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, who chairs the Senate energy committee, the lawmakers call for using the budget reconciliation process to prohibit the federal government from leasing any more land for oil and gas exploration or production in the Pacific Ocean. A similar prohibition was included in the reconciliation bill approved by the House Natural Resources Committee. "Budget reconciliation provides us with an opportunity to construct the energy policy of the future and avoid the worst impacts of climate change," states the letter, signed by California Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Alex Padilla, Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell, and Oregon's Ron Wyden and Jeffrey Merkley. The demand comes days after a pipeline leak off the coast of Southern California saw more than 126,000 gallons of crude oil dumped into the Pacific, devastating wildlife and leading Gov. Gavin Newsom to declare a state of emergency. There are nearly 1,200 active oil wells off the coast of California alone, the Associated Press reported. The lawmakers' proposal would not impact their operations.

Why Does Congress Fight Over Childcare But Not F-35s? - Medea Benjamin - President Biden and the Democratic Congress are facing a crisis as the popular domestic agenda they ran on in the 2020 election is held hostage by two corporate Democratic Senators, fossil-fuelconsigliere Joe Manchin and payday-lender favorite Kyrsten Sinema.But the very week before the Dems’ $350 billion-per-year domestic package hit this wall of corporate money-bags, all but 38 House Democrats voted to hand over more than double that amount to the Pentagon. Senator Manchin has hypocritically described the domestic spending bill as “fiscal insanity,” but he has voted for a much larger Pentagon budget every year since 2016.Real fiscal insanity is what Congress does year after year, taking most of its discretionary spending off the table and handing it over to the Pentagon before even considering the country’s urgent domestic needs. Maintaining this pattern, Congress just splashed out $12 billion for 85 more F-35 warplanes, 6 more than Trump bought last year, without debating the relative merits of buying more F-35s vs. investing $12 billion in education, healthcare, clean energy or fighting poverty.The 2022 military spending bill (NDAA or National Defense Authorization Act) that passed the House on September 23 would hand a whopping $740 billion to the Pentagon and $38 billion to other departments (mainly the Department of Energy for nuclear weapons), for a total of $778 billion in military spending, a $37 billion increase over this year’s military budget. The Senate will soon debate its version of this bill—but don’t expect too much of a debate there either, as most senators are “yes men” when it comes to feeding the war machine.Two House amendments to make modest cuts both failed: one by Rep. Sara Jacobs to strip $24 billion that was added to Biden’s budget request by the House Armed Services Committee; and another by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for an across-the-board10% cut(with exceptions for military pay and healthcare).After adjusting for inflation, this enormous budget is comparable to the peak of Trump’s arms build-up in 2020, and is only 10% below th epost-WWII record set by Bush II in 2008 under cover of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It would give Joe Biden the dubious distinction of being the fourth post-Cold War U.S. president to militarily outspend every Cold War president, from Truman to Bush I.In effect, Biden and Congress are locking in the $100 billion per year arms build-up that Trump justified with his absurd claims that Obama’s record military spending had somehow depleted the military. As with Biden’s failure to quickly rejoin the JCPOA with Iran, the time to act on cutting the military budget and reinvesting in domestic priorities was in the first weeks and months of his administration. His inaction on these issues, like his deportation of thousands of desperate asylum seekers, suggests that he is happier to continue Trump’s ultra-hawkish policies than he will publicly admit.

92 legal scholars call on Harris to preside over Senate to include immigration in reconciliation - A group of legal scholars from around the country called on Vice President Harris and Senate Democratic leadership to include immigration protections in the reconciliation package, despite the Senate parliamentarian's ruling against the move. The 92 scholars called on Harris, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) not to "overrule" Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, whose rulings are non-binding, but for the presiding officer of the Senate to issue a ruling contrary to her advice. "As you know, the Vice President serves as Presiding Officer when she is in attendance, and the President pro tempore or his designate serves as Presiding Officer at other times," wrote the scholars. At issue is language that MacDonough ruled on Sept. 19 were incompatible with the rules of budget reconciliation bills. That language, if enacted into law, would have allowed the federal government to offer legal permanent residency to around 8 million undocumented immigrants and immigrants on humanitarian parole programs who are not currently eligible to apply for permanent residency. MacDonough said such a move would be a substantial change in policy, and would be extraneous to the strictly-budgetary requirements known as the Byrd Rule, limiting which provisions can be included in a reconciliation bill. "When determining whether a provision is extraneous, the Presiding Officer may rely on the Senate Parliamentarian for expert advice," wrote the scholars. "However, as past Parliamentarians have emphasized, the ultimate decision on a point of order lies with the Presiding Officer, subject to appeal to the full Senate." "The Presiding Officer therefore must exercise her own judgment in deciding whether a provision should be stricken from a budget reconciliation bill on Byrd Rule grounds," they added. Reconciliation would allow Democrats to sidestep a Republican filibuster, and many immigration advocates believe the current political climate grants a unique opportunity for reform on the issue, which might not repeat itself in years. While immigration provisions have not been at the center of intraparty debate on the reconciliation bill, groups of Democrats in the House and Senate have fought to include immigration in the bill. MacDonough has so far struck down two separate proposals to grant legal permanent residency through relatively vague memoranda, among other things arguing that a permanent status would have such non-budgetary impacts as to outweigh its budgetary effects. The scholars wrote that the parliamentarian cannot make a final authoritative determination on that point — that only the presiding officer or the full Senate on appeal can do so. To defeat any appeal to the presiding officer's ruling, Senate Democrats would need 51 votes, meaning Harris would have to be present and presiding over the Senate to cast the tie-breaking vote. And the scholars argue the budgetary effects of granting legal permanent residency status to millions of people would be more than substantial. "The outlay and revenue effects of extending LPR status to 8 million people are sweeping. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the budgetary effect of the LPR provisions would be $140 billion over the next 10 years — more than the entire effect of some statutes enacted through budget reconciliation in the past," they wrote.

Supreme Court remands border wall challenge following 'changed circumstances' under Biden - The Supreme Court has directed lower courts to reconsider earlier rulings freezing funding for building former President Trump's border wall in light of President Biden’s efforts to block its construction. The remand punts challenges to the border wall from the Sierra Club, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and others who previously scored court victories determining that Trump inappropriately designated military funding for construction of the wall.The high court vacated the earlier rulings “in light of the changed circumstances in this case,” siding with a Biden administration request that noted that the president on his inauguration day signed an order prohibiting border wall construction.At issue in the case was some $3.6 billion in funding that the Biden administration has since designated for 66 different military construction projects that had been deferred. Groups had challenged Trump’s use of an emergency declaration to divert the funds — something both a district court and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals found improper.But the decision tees up another stage of the battle for border wall challengers who argue Biden must remediate the damage from the construction of the wall. "Today’s order comes after the government conceded that the Trump wall was wasteful and destructive, and returns the case to the district court so that Sierra Club and the Southern Border Communities Coalition can seek relief for the damage the wall has already inflicted,” Dror Ladin, senior staff attorney at the ACLU’s National Security Project, said in a statement to The Hill. That ranges from removing the wall, which environmentalists argue disrupts wildlife corridors, to addressing damage from its construction, which saw builders plow through federal lands, including bulldozing protected Arizona saguaro cacti. But relitigating the case in the lower courts also gives the federal government a chance to push back on earlier court decisions that could limit executive power, particularly the president's ability to use emergency declarations.

Top State official quits post, calling Biden's use of Trump-era border policy 'inhumane' Senior legal adviser to the State Department Harold Koh resigned last week in protest of President Biden's continued use of the Trump-era policy Title 42, calling it "illegal" and "inhumane."Koh wrote in his Oct. 2 resignation letter that the use of Title 42 "raises significant concerns about whether the United States is living up to its binding obligations under international law," according to Politico, which first reported the resignation.In his letter, Koh wrote of how he has spent his legal career ensuring that the U.S. abides by its obligations under the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (CAT), a U.N.-reviewed human rights treaty of which the U.S. is a signatory.Koh wrote that he believes that Title 42 violates an article of CAT that prohibits a country from returning a person to a state where they have "substantial grounds for believing he would be in danger of being subjected to torture.”Under Title 42, migrants can be deported without allowing for asylum during public health emergencies. The Trump administration used an interpretation of this to expel migrants at the border, citing the risk of spreading COVID-19. The Biden administration has recently implemented this policy to deport thousands of Haitians who had crossed into the U.S. from Mexico."I believe this Administration’s current implementation of the Title 42 authority continues to violate our legal obligation not to expel or return ('refouler') individuals who fear persecution, death, or torture, especially migrants fleeing from Haiti," Koh wrote.

Blinken to hold meetings next week with UAE, Israeli foreign ministers -Secretary of State Antony Blinken is slated to hold meetings next week with foreign ministers from the United Arab Emirates and Israel, the State Department announced on Saturday.The State Department said in a statement that Blinken would be meeting with both Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and the UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan next Wednesday. Bilateral meetings will be held between the United States and each country and then there will be a trilateral meeting with all three representatives. “They will discuss progress made since the signing of the Abraham Accords last year, future opportunities for collaboration, and bilateral issues including regional security and stability,” the State Department said.The Trump administration helped broker a deal, known as the “Abraham Accords,” last year that normalized relations between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain. All three countries signed the agreement in September 2020. According to Reuters, Israel and Morocco established diplomatic ties in December 2020. Earlier this year, Sudan said that it would also formalize ties with Israel and sign the Abraham Accords. The deal was praised by then-candidate Biden in August 2020, though he claimed that the Obama administration, during which he served as vice president, had helped make inroads toward the success of that deal.

We Asked Vets Of The Soviet-Afghan War To Judge The U.S. Exit. Here’s What They Said— It has been more than a month since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Sergei Opalev is still trying to wrap his head around the chaotic end to America's 20-year war.It's not the defeat that confounds him — he understands that part all too well. Opalev served as a captain in the Soviet army as it was gradually humbled by Afghan mujahedeen fighters during a decade of war in the 1980s.The problem, he says, is how U.S. forces left."It's just a fact that if you want to evacuate a division, you need a week," says Opalev, who was among the last Soviet soldiers to withdraw from Afghanistan. "If you pull out an army of tens of thousands, you need a year."As the United States grapples with the fallout from its exit from Afghanistan, former soldiers who fought as part of the USSR's own losing military campaign see echoes in their experiences — similar searing loss — but also evidence of American miscalculation that casts the Soviet experience in a more flattering light.Moreover, perceptions of missteps in the U.S. withdrawal have played into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin's wider efforts to rehabilitate aspects of Soviet history.Take the final days of the Soviet pullout from Afghanistan in 1989. The pullout was once viewed as a moment of national humiliation, but Russian veterans say it now looks more impressive and orderly in comparison with America's hurried exit. Soviet state television coverage of the final day shows popular crooner Iosif Kobzon in the Afghan border town of Hairatan to entertain troops. Soldiers shine their boots in anticipation of reunions with family members.On Feb. 15, 1989, Lt. Gen. Boris Gromov (left), with his son, Maxim, walks across a bridge over the Amu Darya at Termez, Uzbekistan. When the Soviet Union completed its military withdrawal from Afghanistan, it was widely hailed as a much-anticipated end to a bloody quagmire, but public perceptions have changed. The footage culminates in this scene: On Feb. 15, 1989, the last tanks and trucks cross a bridge from northern Afghanistan into Uzbekistan, then a Soviet republic. They are followed by a lone figure on foot: Soviet Lt. Gen. Boris Gromov."I can say that not one soldier remains behind me," Gromov tells a Soviet reporter on the scene. Soon, the general is joined by his young son, and the two walk arm in arm into Soviet territory.The event was — of course — staged. Neither were Gromov's words entirely true: Several hundred Soviet troops were still missing in action. Yet, today, Opalev says he finds it an appropriate end to a decade of war."The main thing was that it was organized. From our perspective, the evacuation was done just right," he says. "We left civilian infrastructure but took every tank and machine gun with us." The Soviet retreat was necessary. It was also methodical. For reasons Opalev still can't understand, the American exit wasn't.

Biden and Xi agree to abide by Taiwan agreement - President Biden said on Tuesday that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping have agreed to abide by the status quo in light of recent military provocations carried out by China against the self-governing island. "I’ve spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree we will abide by the Taiwan agreement. That’s where we are and I made it clear that I don’t think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement," Biden told reporters. The Taiwan Relations Act, one of several planks undergirding the current diplomatic relationship between the U.S., China and Taiwan, was passed by Congress in 1979 in order to "maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific" by maintaining "friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations" between Washington and Taipei. The law maintains unofficial, nondiplomatic relations between Taiwan and the U.S., allowing for it to be treated as a foreign country without being officially recognized. It also hinged the establishment of future U.S.-China diplomatic relations on the understanding that Taiwan's future would be determined peacefully. Earlier this year, U.S. officials warned that China may attempt to annex Taiwan some time soon. On Monday, Taiwanese officials said the country was preparing for a possible war with China. The Taiwan Relations Act is purposefully vague but states that the U.S. "will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability." The nature and quantity of the defense provided by the U.S. is meant to be determined by Congress and the president. China has recently ramped up its rhetoric against the democratically governed island, which it claims sovereignty over. Taiwanese officials on Monday said China sent 52 military aircrafts into its airspace, marking the largest provocation from China yet. The State Department said on Sunday that it is "very concerned" about China's "provocative military activity near Taiwan" following recent intrusions into Taiwan's airspace.

Biden Sows Confusion By Claiming He Spoke To President Xi About The "Taiwan Agreement" --Amid what Taiwan's defense minister Chiu Kuo-cheng has just described as the worst tensions with China in 40 yearsfollowing four days of consecutive PLA jet incursions into contested airspace near Taiwan, President Biden apparently sought to defuse tensions in a prior call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Last month we warned that, for the people of Taiwan, it is officially "time to worry" about the prospect of an invasion, or another act of aggression, by Beijing to try and bring the independently governed island under the PROC's control - one of President Xi's loftiest geopolitical objectives as he prepares for an unprecedented third term as China's paramount leader. President Xi has been very clear with his rhetoric: Taiwan belongs to China (just like Hong Kong), and any foreign power that would meddle in the relationship (as the US is obligated to do, by treaty) could face the full military wrath of China.As a series of increasingly aggressive military drills ratchets up tensions between Beijing and Taipei, President Biden - preoccupied with the battle at home over his domestic agenda - threw reporters for a loop late Tuesday when he told them after a long day of stumping behind the domestic agenda that he had spoken to President Xi about Taiwan and that they had agreed to abide by the "Taiwan agreement"."I've spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree...we'll abide by the Taiwan agreement," he said. "We made it clear that I don't think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement."Reuters' Vincent Lee quickly pointed out that Biden appeared to be referencing a conversation from more than a month ago (not a recent call, as he seemed to imply) while also pointing out that there is no "Taiwan Agreement".

Biden & Xi To Hold Virtual Summit By Year's End As US-China Talks In Zurich Had 'Positive' Tone -After the close of Wednesday's high level US-China delegation talks which were held behind closed doors in a Zurich airport hotel, led by US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his Chinese counterpart, top diplomat Yang Jiechi, Bloombergreports that President Joe Biden plans to meet virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the end of the year, based on a senior admin official.This as the White House cited "more meaningful and substantive" discussions than previous meetings - a reference that had the last March Alaska summit in mind which devolved into a very public spat and name-calling. The Chinese side also positively noted "candid" and "in-depth discussions, with Chinese statement citing Yang to say "China attaches importance to Biden’s positive remarks recently and noted that the US said it doesn’t intend to contain China or engage in a new cold war." News of the planned virtual summit also comes just on the heels of Biden telling reporters that he and Xi previously agreed stick to the "Taiwan agreement" - in somewhat confusing remarks while standing on the White House lawn. This after a weekend which saw China deploy no less than 150 warplanes over four days to breach Taiwan's defense identification zone. The Sullivan-Yang talks reportedly went for six hours, with Axios citing an official who emphasized there was a noticeably"different tone than Anchorage" and also "not just the usual talking points". Here are more details per the report:

The official called the Zurich meeting the "most in-depth conversation" that the Biden administration has had with China, characterizing it as an important step in providing a "foundation" to avoid miscalculations that could cause competition to veer into conflict.
Sullivan raised issues in which the U.S. and China have a mutual interest in cooperating — like climate change — as well as concerns over Beijing's human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and military activities in the South China Sea, the official said.

US military analyst warns of danger of nuclear war with China - Retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, writing in the Guardian on Tuesday, issued a stark warning of the danger that the US could “stumble” into a nuclear war with China if conflict erupts between the two countries over Taiwan. In his comment, headlined, “The US must avoid war with China over Taiwan at all costs,” Davis declares: “The prevailing mood among Washington insiders is to fight if China attempts to conquer Taiwan. That would be a mistake.” “Before war comes to the Indo-Pacific and Washington faces pressure to fight a potentially existential war, American policymakers must face the cold, hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat—and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war,” he warns. Davis’s remarks undoubtedly reflect intense discussions taking place behind closed doors in Washington in political, intelligence and strategic circles over the preparations for war with China and the growing likelihood that Taiwan could be the trigger. In March, the outgoing head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson, warned that the US could be at war with China over Taiwan within six years and called for a doubling of his command’s budget. Davis argues that the US would almost certainly lose a conventional war with China over Taiwan “at the cost of large numbers of our jets being shot down, ships being sunk, and thousands of our service personnel killed.” To avoid defeat, he insists that the US should refuse to be drawn into such a conflict, even if it means China taking over the island. “Before war comes to the Indo-Pacific and Washington faces pressure to fight a potentially existential war, American policymakers must face the cold, hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat—and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war,” he warns.Davis’s remarks undoubtedly reflect intense discussions taking place behind closed doors in Washington in political, intelligence and strategic circles over the preparations for war with China and the growing likelihood that Taiwan could be the trigger.

Joe Biden Vows to Defend Senkaku Islands If Attacked by China -Joe Biden became the third American president to publicly pledge to defend the disputed Senkaku Islands on Monday, as Japan adapts to an alarming increase in Chinese government vessels in and around the islets in the East China Sea. After Biden became the first head of state to speak with Japan's new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, a readout carried by the White House called the U.S.-Japan alliance "the cornerstone of peace, security, and stability in the Indo-Pacific and around the world." Kishida, 64, told reporters in Tokyo on Tuesday that the U.S. president had offered "strong remarks on the U.S. commitment to defend Japan, including Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan security treaty," the clause that has, since the Obama administration, covered the Japan-controlled island chain which China also claims under the name Diaoyu. "We confirmed that we would work together toward the strengthening of the Japan-U.S. alliance and the free and open Indo-Pacific," Kishida added, also touching on common areas of concerns such as China and North Korea. In a separate statement about the 20-minute call, the Japanese Foreign Ministry said Biden had "reaffirmed the U.S.'s unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan including the application of Article V of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty to the Senkaku Islands." Kishida said the U.S.-Japan alliance would "continue to be the core of Japan's foreign and security policy under his cabinet," the ministry said. '

US submarine crashes into object in South China Sea, injuries reported -A U.S. nuclear-powered submarine collided with an underwater object while carrying out submerged operations in the Indo-Pacific region on Saturday, according to Navy information just released on Thursday. The U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet disclosed the incident in a press release on Thursday, five days after the incident involving the Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine USS Connecticut (SSN-22).The Pacific Fleet said the submarine was operating in international waters in the Indo-Pacific region, but did not describe a more precise location where the accident occurred. Fox News reporter Lucas Tomlinson tweeted, based on claims from unnamed U.S. officials, that the collision occurred somewhere in the South China Sea. “US Navy submarine hits unknown ‘object’ in South China Sea while submerged on Oct 2: US officials,” Tomlinson tweeted. “USS Connecticut now limping back to port with ‘no life threatening injuries’ aboard. No damage to nuclear reactor. US submarine did not collide with another sub, official says.”

Deep in the Data Void: China’s COVID-19 Disinformation Dominates Search Engine Results Since the earliest days of the pandemic, Chinese state officials and media outlets have disseminated conspiracy narratives claiming that COVID-19 originated at Fort Detrick—a U.S. army research facility in Maryland that has been the target of disinformation campaigns for more than four decades. But Chinese efforts to pump conspiracy narratives about the lab into the information bloodstream have accelerated in recent months in response the Biden administration’s renewed interest in the possibility that the virus leaked from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology. According to data collected on ASD’sHamilton 2.0 dashboard, Chinese government officials and state media outlets have posted more than 1,000 tweets, articles, and videos about Fort Detrick since May, flooding social media platforms with elaborate conspiracy theories that have been thoroughly debunked—and thus largely ignored—by credible media outlets.The amplification of conspiracy theories by Chinese state media and officials is not in itself remarkable, and Fort Detrick is far from Beijing’s only target of disinformation narratives about the origins of the virus. What is remarkable about the Fort Detrick narratives is their foothold in powerful, influential places: search engines. For people encountering the world of Fort Detrick conspiracies for the first time, turning to a search engine would be a common step in the search for information. Unfortunately, popular search engines could lead consumers directly to the very sources of Fort Detrick conspiracy theories. In August and September, Google News results for “Fort Detrick” were dominated by CGTN and the Global Times, two Chinese state-run outlets that are central to Beijing’s information operations. In late August, the frequency and volume of misleading stories about Fort Detrick reached enough of a peak to also dominate Google’s Top Stories feature. Searches on Bing News have not fared much better, with Global Times and China Daily appearing in top results. And on YouTube, four of the six top videos returned in a recent query for “Fort Detrick” were from Chinese state media channels. The other two results promoted Beijing-friendly talking points.

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh tests positive for Covid, days before new term begins - Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh has tested positive for the coronavirus, the court said Friday, just three days before its next term is set to begin. Kavanaugh, 56, is showing no symptoms of the virus, the court said. He has been fully vaccinated against Covid since January.As a precaution, Kavanaugh and his wife will not attend a Friday morning investiture ceremony, when the court will receive Justice Amy Coney Barrett's commission as the newest addition to the bench, according to a press release.On Wednesday, Kavanaugh participated in a three-mile charity road race in Washington.Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh crosses the finish line during the ACLI Capital Challenge 3 Mile Team Race in Anacostia Park on Wednesday, September 29, 2021.The court's statement did not indicate Kavanaugh's test result would affect the start of the new term Monday. The nine justices are set to hear oral arguments in person, 19 months after the pandemic forced their proceedings to be held virtually.A spokeswoman for the court did not immediately respond to a request for additional information. Covid poses a greater health threat to older adults. Stephen Breyer, the oldest member of the court, is 83. Three justices — Breyer, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito — are at least in their 70s. Barrett, at 49, is the youngest justice.All nine justices had been vaccinated against the virus by March. Kavanaugh took a Covid test Thursday in advance of Barrett's investiture ceremony, the court said. That evening, Kavanaugh was told he had tested positive.

Biden sued by Air Force officers who compare vaccine rule to death sentence - President Biden's vaccine mandate is being challenged in a lawsuit filed by four active-duty US Air Force officers, a Secret Service agent, a Border Patrol agent, and four other federal employees or contractors. The lawsuit claimed that "convicted serial killers who have been sentenced to death receive more respect" than citizens who are required to take vaccines.The lawsuit alleges that the vaccine mandate forces service members, federal employees, and federal employees to "inject themselves with: (1) a non-FDA approved product; (2) against their will; and (3) without informed consent." Plaintiffs seek a ruling that the vaccine mandates issued by Biden and the Department of Defense "violate the Fifth Amendment's guarantee of substantive due process" and "the equal protection component of the Fifth Amendment." (The Pfizer vaccine does have full FDA approval.)Plaintiffs also claim the mandate violates the Free Exercise and Establishment clauses of the First Amendment, the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and other US laws including "Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 by discriminating against Plaintiffs and service members, federal employees, and federal contractors on the basis of their religion or disability." Biden's order does allow exceptions for medical or religious reasons but exemptions reportedly may be difficult to obtain."There is perhaps no greater usurpation of fundamental constitutional rights than forcibly injecting a foreign substance into an American citizen," the lawsuit claims. "The rights of our nation's most heinous convicted serial killers who have been sentenced to death receive more respect than this—and often times, even while already strapped to the chair."

Confusion abounds as Biden rolls out scaled-back US booster campaign - Like millions of Americans across the country, Nicole from Brandon, Mississippi, is eager to receive her booster vaccine against Covid-19 — but the advice from her state health department has left the 38-year-old confused about whether she is eligible for another jab. “[They] told me that they were not scheduling boosters, only third shots,” she said, recounting her conversation with a health department employee. “I’m still not sure what guidelines or rules [they are] using at this time, she added. “It appears to be fluid at the moment.” Nicole, who used to work at a non-profit for diabetes sufferers, has since booked her next shot at a Walgreens pharmacy rather than the county health facility where she was originally vaccinated. The difference between a “booster shot” and a “third dose” is meaningless to the average American, but some officials use the latter term to describe an extra shot intended only for those with compromised immune systems. The terminological distinction is but one example of the confusion and chaos overshadowing the scaled-back booster campaign from Joe Biden’s administration. Weeks of mixed messaging from public health officials, leading scientists and the president himself have left Americans puzzled about whether they are eligible for boosters, while individual states have interpreted national guidelines differently. The US Centers for Disease Control recommended booster doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine on Friday for some people who were originally given that particular jab: those aged over 65, adults with medical conditions and workers in jobs with a high-risk of exposure to the virus. The eligible population comprises 60m Americans who received two doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer jab, according to Biden, 20m of whom he said can immediately receive boosters as they were vaccinated at least six months ago. However, those who received two jabs made by Moderna or one by Johnson & Johnson — comprising about 83m people — have been shut out of the booster drive because extra doses of these shots have not yet been authorised by regulators. When Biden announced the booster campaign on August 18, he said every American adult who had received two doses of BioNTech/Pfizer or Moderna would be eligible for a third jab within eight months of the second dose. But now the president, who received his own booster shot this week, is urging people to “wait their turn”. Some lawmakers are giving people conflicting advice. In West Virginia, governor Jim Justice is encouraging all adults who have been fully vaccinated with the BioNTech/Pfizer jab to receive a booster. “If you’re 18 or above, you will qualify in some way,” he said this week. “I would really highly encourage you to run to the fire again and get that booster shot.” Maryland’s governor Larry Hogan has similarly urged residents to have their boosters, saying more than 50,000 extra doses had already been administered. “If you received your second Pfizer dose at least six months ago, you should strongly consider getting a booster shot,” he said last week. Meanwhile, differing recommendations from the CDC, the Food and Drug Administration and the committees of scientists that advise these agencies have left some individuals unsure about whether they qualify.

IMCA sets New Medicare Age at 60 - 130+ House Democrats are co-sponsoring a bill by Pramila Jayapal, the Improving Medicare Coverage Act. The impact of which would drop the Medicare eligibility age to 60 years of age.All well and good, it is about time something is changing. Healthcare Insurance and medical costs are exceeding high in the US. Pricing of healthcare exceeds the actual cost of it. Today, sixty-year-olds can pay a penalties under the ACA for just being old. The ACA was designed to allow for such the same as for smokers. Oldsters are told they could get better coverage under Medicare which is true. It too comes with a price which I have written about Medicare costs.A recent Kaiser Family Foundation analysis found health care spending generally rises as people age. While under Medicare, costs decreases when people switch from private insurance to Medicare. Monthly costs average $770 for 65- to 69-year-olds under Medicare compared with $1061 for the younger group of 60- to 64-year-olds under employer-based insurance. What about the American Rescue Plan? The act lowers ACA insurance rates for all below 200% FPL. This is helpful for the lower income population. It is important to remember, healthcare insurance is a reflection of healthcare pricing plus 15-20% of the price. The cost of healthcare may remain the same and the price may still increase. As was pointed out in Again, Healthcare Cost Drivers Pharma, Doctors, and Hospitals, pricing increases were large part of healthcare. “Health care spending increased by $933.5 billion from 1996 to 2013. Service price and intensity alone accounted for more than 50% of the spending increase.” Pricing increases are a major part of the increasing Healthcare dynamics. The healthcare industry hopes to ameliorate negativity from pricing increases by claiming increasing value of the drugs due to new uses etc. thereby justifying the price increases even though there is little or no cost increases. To which I would say, most of these are older drugs and the costs of bringing them to market have been recouped at 5 years, And also add, increased usage provides greater profits too! Dropping Medicare eligibility age to 60 would be helpful for many if this was all they have to depend upon. There is the ACA which many can use if they can afford it. As I have said before in early commentary, Medicare is not as low cost as many think. Jayapal’s bill will change the Medicare pricing dynamics by making all enrollees with income below 200% FPL eligible for a new Medicare Assistance Program zeroing out premiums, coinsurance, and deductibles for Medicare Parts A (hospital) and B (physician and outpatient). It subsidizes Part D prescription drug coverage, the Part D premium, and prescription copays reducing the latter to single-digit dollar amounts. An important note along with providing less costly benefits for those below 200% FPL, the IMC Act removes the administration of healthcare benefits from state Medicaid programs. The federal government assumes 100% of costs now being shared with states.

Why America Needs a National Program of Paid Sick and Family Leave - Yves here. I haven’t seen much in the way of details as to how the proposed 12 week paid family leave program would work. Obviously this is subject to negotiation, but below are some main points from the initial draft, per Health Affairs: Biden’s American Families Plan proposes to phase in, over 10 years, 12 weeks of paid leave for: parents, including same-gender couples, caring for a newborn, adopted or foster child; workers addressing their own or a loved one’s serious illness; workers dealing with the effects of a family member’s military deployment or service-related injury; survivors of domestic violence or sexual assault; and workers grieving the loss of a loved one.The program would provide most workers—including the self-employed, part-time, and contract workers—a minimum of two-thirds of weekly wages or salary, up to $4,000 a month. Lower-wage workers would get up to 80 percent of pay. The benefit would be government funded and coordinated with existing state and employer-provided paid leave. (Twenty percent of private-sector workers currently have access to paid leave. The federal program would be a baseline that employers and states could choose to add to.)The White House estimates the program would cost $225 billion over 10 years….Biden proposes funding his paid leave program with general tax revenues—specifically through tax increases on upper-income families and corporations.Even if the government pays for the benefit, having employees leave, even for important and completely legitimate reasons, is disruptive, particularly is the employee has high developed skills or knowledge. So I can see employers trying to find ways to structure work relations so as to fall outside this requirement. For instance, how are staffers who serve less than half time treated?The White House website description of the plan is coy about the status of part-time employees. The only mention is in the problem description, not the solution:Low-wage and part-time workers, a majority of whom are women, are less likely to have access to paid sick days.Note employee/employer me would not have benefitted had this law been in place when I got my hip replacement. Like many of the self-employed, I take payroll only once a year, and that wasn’t in the quarter when I had my operation.Long-winded way of saying any the US is way behind global standards and needs to do better, but here as everywhere, how beneficial this family leave benefit proves to be will very much depend on details.

Does America Want a CHIPS for Buybacks Act? -The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is promoting the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Act, introduced in Congress in June 2020. An SIApress release describes the bill as “bipartisan legislation that would invest tens of billions of dollars in semiconductor manufacturing incentives and research initiatives over the next 5-10 years to strengthen and sustain American leadership in chip technology, which is essential to our country’s economy and national security.”On June 8, 2021, the Senate approved $52 billion for the CHIPS for America Act, dedicated to supporting the U.S. semiconductor industry over the next decade. As of this writing, the Act awaits approval in the House of Representatives. Our INET working paper “When the CHIPS are Down,” documents in some detail a curious paradox: Most of the SIA corporate members now lobbying for the CHIPS for America Act have squandered past support that the U.S. semiconductor industry has received from the U.S. government for decades by using their corporate cash to do buybacks to boost their own companies’ stock prices. Among the SIA corporate signatories of a letter to President Biden in February 2021, the five largest stock repurchasers—Intel, IBM, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and Broadcom—did a combined $249 billion in buybacks over the decade 2011-2020, equal to 71 percent of their profits and almost five times the subsidies over the next decade for which the SIA is lobbying.In addition, among the members of the Semiconductors in America Coalition (SIAC), formed specifically in May 2021 to lobby Congress for the passage of the CHIPS for America Act, are Apple, Microsoft, Cisco, and Google. These four firms spent a combined $633 billion on buybacks during 2011-2020. That is about 12 times the government subsidies provided under the CHIPS for America Act to support semiconductor fabrication in the United States in the upcoming decade. Do these companies need $52 billion in subsidies from U.S. taxpayers to give them incentives to invest in semiconductor fabs? The main purpose of these hundreds of billions of dollars in buybacks has been to give boosts to the stock prices of the repurchasing companies. As a result of buybacks, a company’s stock price increases a) if, as is typically the case, stock traders bid up the price when a company announces a repurchase program giving the CEO and CFO the authority (but not the obligation) to do a certain value of open-market repurchases (say, $10 billion) over a certain time period (say, three years); b) when, at the direction of the CFO, the actual execution of buybacks by the company’s broker on any particular day or series of days increases the market demand for the company’s shares; and c) if, with the release of the company’s quarterly financial report, the increase in the company’s earnings per share (EPS) because of the reduction in shares outstanding prompts stock traders to bid up the price of the company’s stock even more.

The Secret IRS Files: Trove of Never-Before-Seen Records Reveal How the Wealthiest Avoid Income Tax - In 2007, Jeff Bezos, then a multibillionaire and now the world’s richest man, did not pay a penny in federal income taxes. He achieved the feat again in 2011. In 2018, Tesla founder Elon Musk, the second-richest person in the world, also paid no federal income taxes. Michael Bloomberg managed to do the same in recent years. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn did it twice. George Soros paid no federal income tax three years in a row. ProPublica has obtained a vast trove of Internal Revenue Service data on the tax returns of thousands of the nation’s wealthiest people, covering more than 15 years. The data provides an unprecedented look inside the financial lives of America’s titans, including Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch and Mark Zuckerberg. It shows not just their income and taxes, but also their investments, stock trades, gambling winnings and even the results of audits. Taken together, it demolishes the cornerstone myth of the American tax system: that everyone pays their fair share and the richest Americans pay the most. The IRS records show that the wealthiest can — perfectly legally — pay income taxes that are only a tiny fraction of the hundreds of millions, if not billions, their fortunes grow each year. Many Americans live paycheck to paycheck, amassing little wealth and paying the federal government a percentage of their income that rises if they earn more. In recent years, the median American household earned about $70,000 annually and paid 14% in federal taxes. The highest income tax rate, 37%, kicked in this year, for couples, on earnings above $628,300. The confidential tax records obtained by ProPublica show that the ultrarich effectively sidestep this system. America’s billionaires avail themselves of tax-avoidance strategies beyond the reach of ordinary people. Their wealth derives from the skyrocketing value of their assets, like stock and property. Those gains are not defined by U.S. laws as taxable income unless and until the billionaires sell. To capture the financial reality of the richest Americans, ProPublica undertook an analysis that has never been done before. We compared how much in taxes the 25 richest Americans paid each year to how much Forbes estimated their wealth grew in that same time period. We’re going to call this their true tax rate. The results are stark. According to Forbes, those 25 people saw their worth rise a collective $401 billion from 2014 to 2018. They paid a total of $13.6 billion in federal income taxes in those five years, the IRS data shows. That’s a staggering sum, but it amounts to a true tax rate of only 3.4%. It’s a completely different picture for middle-class Americans, for example, wage earners in their early 40s who have amassed a typical amount of wealth for people their age. From 2014 to 2018, such households saw their net worth expand by about $65,000 after taxes on average, mostly due to the rise in value of their homes. But because the vast bulk of their earnings were salaries, their tax bills were almost as much, nearly $62,000, over that five-year period. No one among the 25 wealthiest avoided as much tax as Buffett, the grandfatherly centibillionaire. That’s perhaps surprising, given his public stance as an advocate of higher taxes for the rich. According to Forbes, his riches rose $24.3 billion between 2014 and 2018. Over those years, the data shows, Buffett reported paying $23.7 million in taxes. That works out to a true tax rate of 0.1%, or less than 10 cents for every $100 he added to his wealth. In the coming months, ProPublica will use the IRS data we have obtained to explore in detail how the ultrawealthy avoid taxes, exploit loopholes and escape scrutiny from federal auditors.

Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp hit by global outage, stock tanks - Facebook offered “sincere apologies” Monday afternoon as a sweeping outage of its site and various other properties, including Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, stretched for more than six hours and helped to wipe more than $50 billion off Facebook’s market cap — the stock’s worst day of trading in almost a year. The issues started around 11:45 a.m. ET, according to DownDetector, and hit users globally, taking out critical communications platforms that billions of people and businesses rely on everyday. Service began to return at around 6 p.m.While Facebook has yet to identify the root of the issue, cybersecurity experts said it does not appear to be a cyberattack and instead seems to be linked to internal issues with Facebook’s systems. As the outage stretched into the late afternoon, Facebook chief technology officer Mike Schroepfer issued an apology to users. “*Sincere* apologies to everyone impacted by outages of Facebook powered services right now,” he tweeted. “We are experiencing networking issues and teams are working as fast as possible to debug and restore as fast as possible.”Hours after Facebook’s family of apps began displaying error messages, the company’s security experts were still trying to identify the cause, The New York Times reported, citing an internal memo and employees briefed on the matter.Facebook’s global security operations center reportedly classified the outage as “a HIGH risk to the People, MODERATE risk to Assets and a HIGH risk to the Reputation of Facebook,” according to a company memo.As Facebook scrambled to solve the issue, investors ditched the stock, sending almost 5 percent lower to $326.23 per share. It was the stock’s biggest one-day plummet since Nov. 9, 2020. Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s personal wealth took a more than $6 billion hit on Monday, sending him below Microsoft founder Bill Gates to No. 5 on Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index. Zuckerberg is now worth about $121.6 billion, down from almost $140 billion just a couple weeks ago, according to Bloomberg. The outage also disrupted internal Facebook systems, including security, a company calendar and scheduling tools, The Times reported, adding that some Facebook employees weren’t even able to enter buildings due to the outage.

Senator Elizabeth Warren Puts the Heat on the SEC to Investigate Fed Officials for Insider Trading - In a publicly-released letter issued today to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, Senator Elizabeth Warren has put Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on notice that his plans to conduct a self-investigation of the Fed’s trading scandal isn’t going to fly with her. Warren is a member of the powerful Senate Banking Committee that oversees the Federal Reserve.Warren called on the SEC to “investigate trading in securities by high-level Federal Reserve officials and determine if any of these ethically questionable transactions may have violated insider trading rules.”Warren characterized the trading by Fed officials as reflecting “an attitude that personal profiteering is more important than the American people’s confidence in the Fed.”At one point in the letter, Warren sounded like she might be trying to flush out someone looking for a plea deal to avoid an orange jumpsuit. She invoked the possibility of a person engaging in insider trading serving time in prison. Warren wrote:“It is not clear why Chair Powell did not stop these activities, which corrode the trust and effectiveness of the Fed. The Fed officials’ trades clearly run afoul of Fed guidelines stating that officials should ‘avoid any dealings or other conduct that might convey even an appearance of conflict between their personal interests, the interests of the System, and the public interest.’ And, if they involved ‘purchasing or selling a security while in possession of material nonpublic information’ – which could have been the case given that Fed officials routinely are in possession of such information – they may have violated SEC’s insider trading rules. Such violations may subject individuals to civil penalties of ‘three times the amount of the profit gained or loss avoided’ and criminal penalties up to $5,000,000 and 20 years imprisonment.”Just this morning, Wall Street On Parade published an article in which we called on the Senate Banking Committee to conduct a hearing and take sworn testimony from the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Citigroup regarding their firms’ involvement in the trading by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, respectively. These banks are supervised by the Federal Reserve while also appearing to be centrally involved in the trading scandal swirling around the Federal Reserve Bank Presidents.A Senate Banking Committee hearing under oath would get some important, initial answers to the American people far more quickly than waiting for months, if not years, f or an SEC investigation to conclude. That information might be critical to helping President Biden decide if he wants to nominate Powell for another term as Fed Chair or if it’s time for a Fed house cleaning.

New Documents Show the Fed’s Trading Scandal Includes Two of the Wall Street Banks It Supervises: Goldman Sachs and Citigroup - Pam Martens --Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan had to give his “over $1 million” trades in a litany of individual stocks and his “over $1 million” transactions in S&P 500 futures to a licensed broker at a registered broker-dealer. The same thing applied to Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren in placing his $1000 to $50,000 trades 68 times in 2020 in individual stocks and publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).The safeguards that failed at the Dallas Fed and the Boston Fed to stop their Presidents from trading like hedge fund wannabes should not have failed at the SEC-regulated Wall Street broker-dealers that placed these trades. The accounts at the trading firms for these two men should have been coded to indicate that the men came into regular contact with sensitive, market moving information. The nature and level of their trading should have triggered the immediate involvement of the firms’ compliance departments and a halt to the trading. (See our earlier report on how a dozen legal safeguards failed, that should not have failed, to stop these men from humiliating the central bank of the United States around the world.)Newly unearthed documents now put Wall Street megabanks Goldman Sachs and Citigroup at the center of this trading scandal. Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are bank holding companies that are supervised by…wait for it…the Federal Reserve. (Their broker-dealer units are supervised by the SEC and other securities regulators.) The documents suggest that rather than functioning as an arms-length supervisor of the banks, some Fed officials have gotten cozy with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, receiving perks from these supervised entities.Goldman Sachs has been supervised by the Federal Reserve since it became a bank holding company on September 21, 2008, in order to access bailout funds from the Fed. Despite Goldman Sachs being a supervised entity, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan owned four proprietary products offered by Goldman Sachs since he has been at the Dallas Fed: the Goldman Sachs Financial Square Money Market Fund; the Goldman Sachs Medium Term Managed Corporate Bond Account, the Goldman Sachs Private Equity Fund 2000 (which does not publicly trade), and a cryptic investment called Exchange Place LP which is listed on Kaplan’s 2015 through 2020 financial disclosure forms in an amount of “over $1 million.”According to SEC filings, as of October 28, 2019, 1068 individuals had invested in Exchange Place LP to the tune of $2.1 billion. (It’s impossible to tell from the SEC filing if that is the amount sold just in 2019 or the aggregate amount sold since the product was originated in 2014.)Unlike typical investment offerings that are filed with the SEC, there is no prospectus or offering memorandum publicly available to provide a clue as to what this Goldman Sachs offering is all about. Other than our reporting today, it’s a black hole in terms of what the general public knows about it.The Dallas Fed has effectively denied that Exchange Place LP is a Goldman Sachs offering, stating in a press release last Monday that “Upon joining the Bank, Rob [Robert Kaplan, its President] systematically sold all of his personal holdings related to financial institutions over which the Federal Reserve had regulatory oversight or were otherwise restricted.”According to SEC filings, Exchange Place LP shares the headquarters address of Goldman Sachs. Its officers are employees of Goldman Sachs. Its phone number is Goldman Sachs’ phone number. You decide if it’s a Goldman Sachs’ offering.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan Was Gathering His Own Market Intelligence - Pam Martens -- Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is due to step down today after playing a central role in creating the worst trading scandal in the Federal Reserve’s 108-year history.Not only was Kaplan trading in and out of “over $1 million” positions in individual stocks but he was also engaging in “over $1 million” transactions in S&P 500 futures, an instrument used by hedge funds and day traders to make leveraged bets on the direction of the market. As Wall Street On Parade previously explained, a dozen legal safeguards had to fail to allow this to happen.The Dallas Fed has refused to say if Kaplan was shorting the market. It has also refused to provide the dates of Kaplan’s trades, despite the fact that the Dallas Fed’s own financial disclosure form requires Kaplan to provide that information. Other Fed Bank Presidents readily comply with providing the dates of their purchases and sells, as do all of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.On Wednesday, we sent an overnight letter to Thomas J. Falk, the Deputy Chair of the Dallas Fed Board of Directors, who is one of the three Dallas Fed Board Members appointed by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to represent the public. Falk is the retired former Chairman and CEO of Kimberly-Clark, thus we felt he could readily appreciate his fiduciary duty to comply with existing rules and regulations and fulfill the public’s right to know. We asked that Falk instruct staff at the Dallas Fed to comply with our previous requests for the dates of Kaplan’s transactions.Senator Elizabeth Warren has called on the Securities and Exchange Commission to open an investigation into insider trading by Fed officials. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren has also stepped down from his post after his trading in and out of stocks and REITs came under fire. Media questions are also being raised about one large trade done by the Federal Reserve Board’s Vice Chair, Richard Clarida, who sold between $1 million and $5 million in a bond fund and moved it into stock funds in February of 2020, on the eve of Fed Chairman Powell issuing a statement suggesting policy action from the Fed in response to the pandemic.But the trading by Rosengren and Clarida pales in comparison to a Fed Bank President repeatedly trading in “over $1 million” transactions in S&P 500 futures, as was done by Kaplan — not just in 2020 but since Kaplan joined the Dallas Fed in September of 2015. Traders on Wall Street are astonished that Kaplan hasn’t been perp walked in all this time. (See Kaplan’s 2015 through 2020 financial disclosure forms here.)

House Republican to SEC chair: Leave crypto rules to Congress — The top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee sparred with the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission over the regulation of digital assets, saying Congress should establish a framework for certain types of cryptocurrencies instead of the SEC.Under the Biden administration, financial regulators have sounded the alarm about stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to the value of real currency. But Republicans worry that regulators will overreach. Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., the panel's ranking member, accused SEC Chair Gary Gensler at a hearing Tuesday of making “contradictory public statements,” suggesting on one hand that Congress should write new laws for the crypto sector while on the other signaling that the SEC will act on its own.

Lax regulation of fintechs leaves consumers vulnerable to abuse | American Banker - A new regulatory regime in Washington — highlighted by the recent confirmation of a new director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and President Biden’s nomination of Saule Omarova as the next comptroller of the currency — faces a rapidly evolving financial services marketplace and, with it, a new set of challenges.In recent months, some leading fintechs have been tarnished by allegations of consumer harm.Just recently, one of these platforms enabled merchants to submit loan applications on consumers’ behalf — without the consumers’ knowledge or consent — and then approved such loans. This type of flagrant abuse is exactly what now-Sen. Elizabeth Warren warned against when she championed the creation of the CFPB, and it’s far from an isolated incident. Here’s why we’re likely to see even more consumer harm without action from policymakers.

Banks must hasten shift away from Libor or face consequences: Quarles -Banks must “pick up the pace” on shifting away from the Libor interest rate by Dec. 31 or prepare for regulatory consequences, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles said Tuesday.Starting Jan. 1, banks will no longer be allowed to make new loans using the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, which is being phased out globally after a rate-rigging scandal years ago. Legacy contracts can continue to refer to Libor until the middle of 2023. Speaking at an industry conference, Quarles said the Fed is prepared to use its “full panoply of supervisory tools” on banks that fail to move away from Libor. .

Fed moving forward with plans to test banks' climate risk: Brainard — Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard said Thursday that the central bank is moving forward with an exercise to measure the impact of climate change on financial institutions and markets. Subjecting banks to “scenario analysis” should help with risk identification and management as firms account for the physical risk of global warming, such as severe weather events, and the transition risk that will come from changing consumer behaviors and government policies, Brainard said in remarks at a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston conference on stress testing. “Although we should be humble about what the first generation of climate scenario analysis is likely to deliver, the challenges we face should not deter us from building the foundations now,” Brainard said.

OCC weighing rules on bank board diversity - — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is considering ways to lean on banks to add more women and minorities to their boards of directors, acting Comptroller Michael Hsu said Tuesday. Hsu said possible approaches range from recommending that institutions choose board members from a more diverse candidate pool, all the way to more prescriptive requirements. He also called on large banks to be more transparent about diversity in their senior ranks. “Ultimately, we need to shift cultural expectations so that diversity and inclusion are the norm, not some distant aspiration. For the financial sector, this starts with improving transparency about the diversity of large bank boards of directors and executive leadership,” Hsu said in remarks to a meeting of the Washington-based group Women in Housing & Finance.

OCC nominee faces rocky path to Senate confirmation - — It took the Biden administration nine months to settle on a nominee to run the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, passing over other candidates along the way. The process to get Saule Omarova approved by the Senate does not appear it will be any easier.To say that Omarova's nomination has stoked controversy is putting it lightly. Industry trade groups have all voiced public concerns about her views as an academic, suggesting some moderate Democrats may vote against the confirmation.Some question her chances of getting through the 50-50 Senate, based on criticism of past writings by the Cornell law professor that many view as outside the mainstream. Others say her prior government experience in the George W. Bush administration could attract bipartisan support to offset that opposition.

Senator Pat Toomey Launches a Red-Scare Campaign Against Biden’s Nominee to Head a Top Wall Street Bank Regulator - Pam Martens -- The ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, who was supposed to become the Chair of the Committee in a Trump coup d’état, is Republican Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, who has been serially funded and backed by Koch-funded front groups. Koch Industries ownsa big trading operation, so it is very much vested in what happens in terms of stricter regulations for Wall Street. The headline of yesterday’s email from the Senate Banking Committee read: “Brown Blasts Ranking Member Toomey for Red Scare Attacks On Saule Omarova,” along with this brief statement from Senator Brown: “Before today, I thought red scare McCarthyism was rightly relegated to the dustbin of history. Any American citizen who fled communist repression – whether it be FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams or OCC nominee Saule Omarova – should be lauded for their courage and conviction. I believe that my colleagues – from both sides of the aisle – will reject such character assassinations.” Naturally, our curiosity was piqued. What was Toomey up to this time in service to the Koch corporate machine. It turns out that Toomey had spent 11 minutes on the Senate floor yesterday bashing President Biden’s nominee, Saule Omarova, to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the federal regulator of national banks. The thrust of Toomey’s slurs is that Omarova is a radical Soviet sympathizer because she happens to have been born in the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic (now Kazakhstan) and attended Moscow State University on a Lenin Personal Academic Scholarship. That was more than three decades ago. Toomey now plans to dig up a paper on Marx that Omarova wrote in her early twenties and launch a full-scale red scare.It should be noted that Republicans were not throwing out commie scares when Omarova served in the George W. Bush administration in the Department of the Treasury as a special advisor on regulatory policy. What Toomey is doing now is simply being a toady for Wall Street interests that don’t want to see this corrupt system reformed because it could crimp Wall Street’s ability to continue looting and plundering the American people.Omarova has been on Wall Street’s watch list since 2013 when she blew the whistle on its stealth holdings of physical commodities in Senate hearings. See our report: Woman Who Helped Expose Wall Street Mega Banks’ Vast Holdings of Physical Commodities Is Nominated as a Top Bank Regulator.The OCC that Omarova would head supervises banks that operate across state lines. These include mega banks like JPMorgan Chase, which has more than 5,000 local bank branches across the country. This system is in radical need of overhaul because despite JPMorgan Chase’s five felony counts and unconscionable conduct since 2014, its prior regulators have allowed it to grow even larger and become more dangerous. In addition, the Federal Reserve has had to bail out these behemoth banks for the second time in 13 years as the banks’ crime sprees continue to disgrace the United States around the world. Just last October, Goldman Sachs and its Malaysian unit admitted to conspiring to pay $1.6 billion in bribes to government officials in Malaysia and Abu Dhabi in order to win lucrative deals.And now it appears that the central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, has climbed so far in bed with these Wall Street banks that two of the banks, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup’s Citibank, have facilitated scandalous trading activity on the part of Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, respectively.

Two dozen banks sidestep Texas law punishing gun, oil policies - More than two dozen banks have said they can continue working with Texas and its local governments in the wake of new state laws seeking to punish financial institutions that have policies aimed at the gun and fossil fuel industries. Barclays, TD Securities, Stifel Financial, Wells Fargo and Jefferies Financial Group are among those certifying that that they don’t run afoul of the new laws, according to letters to the state attorney general compiled by the Municipal Advisory Council of Texas, an industry association. The advisory council posted the letters on its website. The assertions signal that there are plenty ready to fill the breach left at least temporarily by Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, all of which have seen business grind to a halt in Texas since the new laws took effect in September.

Big banks face surtax in Washington state after court upholds 2019 law -Large banks operating in Washington state will have to pay more in taxes after a court upheld a state revenue-raising plan that specifically targets big financial institutions.In a unanimous opinion Thursday, the Washington Supreme Court rejected the argument, made by banking trade groups, that the 2019 tax law discriminates against out-of-state companies. The decision overturned the ruling of a trial court that sided with the industry groups.The two-year-old law imposes a surtax on certain financial institutions with an annual company-wide net income of at least $1 billion, whether they are based in Washington state or elsewhere. Industry groups had contended that the law was nonetheless aimed at out-of-state banks in violation of the portion of the U.S. Constitution that gives Congress the right to regulate commerce between the states.

California cracks down on nonbanks that charge overdraft fees - A new California law will limit the ability of nonbanks to charge overdraft fees by effectively banning the deposit of state public assistance funds into certain accounts that feature the charges. The law, signed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday, is likely to affect both payday lenders that offer debit cards and neobanks. It is aimed at broadening existing overdraft-fee limitations on prepaid cards. Supporters say the law will limit the ability of companies to exploit a loophole in a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rule that took effect in 2019 and restricted overdraft fees on prepaid cards.

USPS Begins Postal Banking Pilot Program - The American Prospect -David Dayen -The United States Postal Service (USPS) has taken the most dramatic step in a half-century to re-establish a postal banking system in America. In four pilot cities, customers can now cash payroll or business checks of up to $500 at post office locations, and have the money put onto a single-use gift card. The move puts the USPS in direct competition with the multibillion-dollar check-cashing industry, which operates storefronts to allow unbanked or underbanked residents to cash their paychecks.According to USPS spokesperson Tatiana Roy, the pilot launched on September 13 in four locations: Washington, D.C.; Falls Church, Virginia; Baltimore; and the Bronx, New York. To test the system, Prospect art director Jandos Rothstein visited a post office in Falls Church on Saturday and successfully cashed a business check onto a Visa gift card. “At first, [the postal worker] said she didn’t think she could take the check,” Rothstein said. “But she read the check into her scanner and it went through.” He didn’t need to show identification or endorse the check. The post office charged Rothstein a flat fee of $5.95, for any amount up to $500.Several larger check-cashing chains charge a percentage rate that comes out to $15 or more for a $500 check. Walmart charges between $4 and $8 for check cashing.A generic gift card, an existing product sold at post office locations, can be used like a bank debit card, either to take money out of an ATM (though that would, for now, incur fees), or pay for goods and services either online or at point-of-sale retail locations.Because the only innovation in the test pilot involves allowing gift cards to be purchased with a business or payroll check, no additional authority from Congress was required. Those who set up the product expansion are confident that it falls within their legal mandate. The test pilot is extremely limited—only one post office location in each pilot city is participating—but officials have floated ideas for how it could expand. The card could be reloadable rather than single-use, used to store multiple paychecks over time. USPS could keep track of the card value, accounting for a user’s balance in case it gets lost or stolen. Postal gift cards, currently branded for businesses like Barnes & Noble or Olive Garden as well as the generic Visa card, could be branded as coming specifically from USPS, with no-fee branded ATMs inside post office buildings. And other possibilities have been discussed, like bundling gift cards with a postal money order to pay bills, or making domestic money transfers from one post office to another. In other words, a few simple expansions would effectively make this product a postal bank account, the first since the original postal banking system shut down in 1967 after 56 years in operation. At its height, four million Americans had bank accounts at the post office.

Stock, Bond and Real Estate Prices Are All Uncomfortably High - An economist says the three major U.S. markets all show signs of severe overpricing. By Robert J. Shiller - The prices of stocks, bonds and real estate, the three major asset classes in the United States, are all extremely high. In fact, the three have never been this overpriced simultaneously in modern history.What we are experiencing isn’t caused by any single objective factor. It may be best explained as a result of a confluence of popular narratives that have together led to higher prices. Whether these markets will continue to rise over the short run is impossible to say.Clearly, this is a time for investors to be cautious. Beyond that, it is largely beyond our powers to predict.Consider this trifecta of high prices:

Stocks. Prices in the American market have been elevated for years, yet despite periodic interruptions, they have kept rising. A valuation measure that I helped create — the cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio — today is 37.1, the second highest it has been since my data begin in 1881. The average CAPE since 1881 is only 17.2. The ratio (defined as the real share price divided by the 10-year average of real earnings per share) peaked at 44.2 in December 1999, just before the collapse of the millennium stock market boom.
Bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield has been on a downtrend for 40 years, hitting a low of 0.52 percent in August 2020. Because bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, that implies a record high for bond prices as well. The yield is still low, and prices, on a historical basis, remain quite high.
Real estate. The S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which I helped develop, rose 17.7 percent, after correcting for inflation, in the year that ended in July. That’s the highest 12-month increase since these data begin in 1975. By this measure, real home prices nationally have gone up 71 percent since February 2012. Prices this high provide a strong incentive to build more houses — which could be expected eventually to bring prices down. The price-to-construction cost ratio (using the Engineering News Record Building Cost Index) is only slightly below the high reached at the peak of the housing bubble, just before the Great Recession of 2007-9.

There are many popular explanations for these prices, but none, in itself, is adequate….

Where CFPB will focus fair-lending probes under new chief - As Rohit Chopra gets set to take the helm of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, many expect fair lending to be high on his agenda. But his anti-discrimination efforts could diverge from that of his predecessors. Anti-redlining policies traditionally have been focused on mortgage lending. Analysts say housing will still be a priority, but the CFPB will likely also crack down on fair-lending violations for small-business loans governed by the Paycheck Protection Program. Meanwhile, fair-lending investigations and penalties targeting allegedly biased underwriting algorithms could be a jumping off point for the bureau to address potentially discriminatory practices in the use of artificial intelligence.

Fair-lending suit puts heat on Old National-First Midwest deal - Fair housing advocates are alleging mortgage discrimination by Old National Bancorp and pressuring the Federal Reserve to take a closer look at the company’s potential merger with First Midwest Bancorp. The Fair Housing Center of Central Indiana sued Old National in federal court on Thursday, alleging that only 1.6% of the bank’s 2,250 home loans in 2019 and 2020 across the Indianapolis market went to Black borrowers. Old National made just 37 loans to Black borrowers in the Indianapolis metropolitan statistical area over the two-year period, the fair housing nonprofit alleged. Four other lenders that the plaintiff identified as Old National’s peers offered home loans to Black borrowers at nearly four times the rate as the Evansville, Indiana-based bank, according to the lawsuit.

FHFA weighs cutting price-adjustment fees on Fannie and Freddie loans -The Federal Housing Finance Agency is considering reducing risk-based fees on loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that critics say have priced many qualified and first-time homebuyers out of the conventional mortgage market. Acting FHFA Director Sandra Thompson said Thursday that the agency is weighing changes to the loan-level price adjustments enacted in 2008 to help the government-sponsored enterprises manage risk. Mortgage lenders, Realtors and housing experts have urged the FHFA for years to eliminate the fees that raise the cost of a home loan for many borrowers.

Affordable housing advocate moves closer to top job at Ginnie Mae — President Biden’s nominee to lead Ginnie Mae pledged to lawmakers Thursday that if confirmed, she would do her part to expand access to credit and provide the critical capital and liquidity needed to finance affordable housing as the U.S. faces record-high demand for homes. Alanna McCargo, currently a senior advisor at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, told the Senate Banking Committee in a hearing to examine her nomination that while her role in slowing home price appreciation would be limited at Ginnie Mae, she would ensure that the agency would continue to be a reliable backstop to investors in mortgage-backed securities. That support in turn ensures that borrowers in government-backed programs are able to capture lower interest rates on home loans. “Far too many people do not get the opportunity to plant seeds of ownership because housing is grossly unaffordable, it’s impossible to save or they lack resources or don’t have parents who can help them get started,” McCargo said in prepared remarks to lawmakers. “Government mortgage programs help enable homeownership opportunity.”

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for August: "the longer borrowers remain in forbearance, the higher the post-forbearance non-performance rate" -- Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for August today. According to Black Knight, 4.00% of mortgage were delinquent in August, down from 4.14% of mortgages in July, and down from 6.88% in August 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.27% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.35% a year ago.This gives a total of 4.27% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Strong Equity Stakes Alone May Not Be Enough to Stave Off Foreclosure Starts, But Will Reduce Inflow of Distressed Properties Into Housing MarketGiven Black Knight’s recent analysis of the strong equity positions of borrowers in forbearance, even when adding 18 months of deferred payments to their debt loads, this month’s report explores the relationship between such equity positions and downstream foreclosure start rates and – ultimately – distressed liquidations.. the data suggests that the healthy stores of equity in the hands of homeowners currently in forbearance may not be sufficient on its own to ward off foreclosure activity. “Borrowers with limited equity were much more likely to be referred to foreclosure during the early stages of the Great Recession than those with strong equity positions. But foreclosure start rates on homeowners who were 120 or more days past due have been relatively similar regardless of equity stakes from 2010 on, with borrowers in the strongest positions only slightly less likely to be referred to foreclosure. So, while we may see some variation in foreclosure activity based on the equity levels of borrowers who are unable to return to making payments post-forbearance, those with strong equity won’t necessarily be immune to foreclosure referral.“The same data also shows that borrowers with strong equity stakes are more than 40% less likely to face the involuntary liquidation of their homes than borrowers with weaker equity positions, limiting both potential losses on such mortgages and distressed inflow into the housing market. Still, even among borrowers with 40% equity stakes who are referred to foreclosure, some 30% in recent years have lost their home to foreclosure sale, short sale, deed in lieu, etc. What the data doesn’t tell us is why so many people who could avoid involuntary liquidation by selling through traditional channels simply do not end up doing so. Here is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight: And on the current status of loans that have exited forbearance:

• Nearly 3.7M borrowers exited forbearance plans in 2020, with the largest volumes in July and October as early entrants reached the three- and six- month points in their plans
• Exit volumes tapered off in early 2021, but picked up with 338K exits in August, and are expected to rise in coming months as early plan entrants reach their final expirations
• Post-forbearance performance among those who've exited has varied, with borrowers who remained in plans longer – and exited later – having more trouble getting back to making payments
• A large share of recent exits remains in active loss mitigation, working through post-forbearance options, so it will be a few weeks before August/September exit performance trends become more discernible
• That said, a clear pattern has emerged: the longer borrowers remain in forbearance, the higher the post-forbearance non-performance rate, with the current high-water mark the 9% non-performance rate seen among July plan exits
• Non-performance rates among those borrowers facing final plan expirations in coming months will dictate the ultimate downstream impacts on both foreclosure activity as well as the broader housing market

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.89%" --Note: This is as of September 26th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.89%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 2.96% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.89% as of September 26, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.4 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 6 basis points to 1.38%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 7 basis points to 3.35%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 14 basis points to 6.77%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 5 basis points relative to the prior week to 3.19%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 13 basis points to 2.93%.“The share of loans in forbearance declined at a faster rate last week, dropping by 7 basis points, as exits increased and new requests and re-entries declined,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “While 1.4 million homeowners remained in forbearance as of September 26th , this number is expected to drop sharply over the next few weeks as many are reaching the 18-month expiration point of their forbearance terms. Most borrowers exiting forbearance through a workout are opting for a deferral plan, which allows them to resume their original payment, while moving the forborne amount to the end of the loan.” “Although call volume dropped in the last week of September, we expect that servicers will be very busy through October.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.05% to 0.04%."

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans "Largest Weekly Decline in 12 Months" -Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of October 5th.From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Largest Weekly Forbearance Decline in 12 Months: We’ve been waiting for a sizable drop in the number of active forbearance plans, given the large number of plans both marked for either review (for extension/removal) or final expiration in September.Well, this week has brought the first real signs of that. In fact, according to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, the population dropped by 11% since last Tuesday, marking the largest weekly decline in 12 months.The number of active forbearance plans fell by 177,000 this week with declines seen across all investor classes, led by an 84,000 plan drop among FHA/VA loans. Plans among GSE loans and those held in bank portfolios and private label securities also fell, seeing 50,000 (-11%) and 43,000 (-8%) declines respectively.As of October 5, 1.39 million mortgage holders remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, representing 2.6% of all active mortgages, including 1.4% of GSE, 4.3% of FHA/VA and 3.6% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans.Overall, forbearances have declined by 294,000 (-17%) over the past 30 days, the fastest monthly rate of improvement since October 2020. Plan exits surged then as the first wave of forbearance entrants reached their six-month mark. The folks who’d remained are now reaching the end of their allowable terms. There are still more than 180,000 plans with September month-end review dates. Keep in mind that this data only covers the last business day in that month and the first three in October. Additional exits are likely in coming weeks as well as servicers continue to work through the large volumes of expirations.

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 1, 2021. .. The Refinance Index decreased 10 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage applications to refinance dropped almost 10 percent last week to the lowest level in three months, as the 30-year fixed rate increased to 3.14 percent – the highest since July. Higher rates are reducing borrowers’ incentive to refinance, as declines were seen across all loan types,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity also fell, driven by a drop in conventional loan applications. Government purchase applications were up over 1 percent, but that was still not enough to bring down the average loan balance of $410,000. With home-price appreciation and sales prices remaining very elevated, applications for higher balance, conventional loans still dominate the mix of activity.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.14 percent from 3.10 percent, with points increasing to 0.35 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

The feared eviction ‘tsunami’ has not yet happened. Experts are conflicted on why. When the Supreme Court decided to strike down a federal ban on evictions in August, lawmakers and housing experts mentioned a slew of devastating metaphors — cliff, tsunami, tidal wave — to describe the national eviction crisis they saw coming. One month later, however, many of those same authorities find themselves wondering: Where is the cliff?In major metropolitan areas, the number of eviction filings has dropped or remained flat since the Supreme Court struck down the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention moratorium on Aug. 26, according to experts and data collected by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. In cities around the country, including Cleveland, Memphis, Charleston and Indianapolis, eviction filings are well below their pre-pandemic levels. Housing and eviction experts offered a mix of guesses about why a feared onslaught of evictions has not yet materialized, including that the wave could still be coming. The pace at which courts handle casesvaries widely across the country, and some courts may be severely backlogged. In some regions of the country, the federal eviction moratorium did little to slow filings amid the pandemic and, in other areas, protections are in place. Some tenants may have moved on their own to avoid eviction. Housing experts don’t believe the country has solved its eviction issues, and there are still places where evictions have risen since the ban ended. Filings have surpassed their pre-pandemic levels in Gainesville, Fla., and have come close in Cincinnati and Jacksonville, Fla. Still, the overall picture has confused experts who had grim warnings for the looming crisis once the federal ban was no longer in place. Those same experts are hesitant to say the wave won’t come. After all, the recent Pulse Survey data published by the Census Bureau suggests that some 3 million households have reported concerns of imminent eviction. “I think it’s too early to declare decisively that this isn’t happening,” said Peter Hepburn, a research fellow at the Eviction Lab, which tracks cases of eviction filings in 31 cities and a half-dozen states all around the country. “This may not take the form of a sudden spike in eviction cases all at once. It may be something that’s much more delayed and diffuse.”

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate Decreased Sharply in Q3 -- Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.7% in Q3 2021, down from 5.3% in Q2, and down from 5.1% in Q3 2020. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009, and bottomed at 4.1% in 2016. This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Reis is just for large cities. Reis also reported the asking rents were up 7.5% year-over-year, compared to up 1.2% in Q2.For some cities, asking rents were up significantly more, especially in areas like Phoenix (up over 20% YoY), and many cities in California and Florida.

CoreLogic: House Prices up 18.1% YoY in August, All-Time High YoY Increase - The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Record-High Repeat: U.S. Annual Home Price Growth Reaches a New All-Time High in August, CoreLogic Reports: Home prices rose to a fever pitch this summer, with annual price gains reaching another all-time high in August at 18.1%. Ongoing affordability challenges within the supply-constricted market have also been exacerbated by an influx in homebuying activity from investors. As the home purchase market continues to boom and buoy the post-pandemic economy, these market factors are unevenly affecting access for some buyers. This is reflected in a recent CoreLogic consumer survey, where 59% of consumers looking to purchase a home reported combined household earnings of at least six figures, compared to the 10% of consumers looking to purchase earning less than $50,000.“Home prices continue to escalate at a torrid pace as a broad spectrum of buyers drive demand for a limited supply of homes,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We expect to see the trend of strong price gains continue indefinitely with large amounts of capital chasing too few assets.” ..Nationally, home prices increased 18.1% in August 2021, compared to August 2020. This is the largest 12-month growth in the U.S. index since the series began (January 1976 – January 1977). On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.3% compared to July 2021....“Single-family detached homes continue to be in high demand,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “These properties offer more living space and distance from neighboring homes than that of attached properties. On average, detached homes have 28% more inside space compared to single-family attached properties and about twice as much space as apartments in multifamily structures.”

Homebuilder Comments in September: “Supply chain, supply chain, supply chain." Some homebuilder comments courtesy of Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!):Here is Rick’s summary of builder comments for various markets:

#Allentown builder: “Supply chain is broken. Our best answer is to provide orders to trade partners 3-4 months in advance so that we receive materials on time.”
#Austin builder: “Availability of windows has limited closings this year & availability of appliances has caused closings to slide to a later month. Availability of paint is stressing Q4 closings & causing even more bunching toward late in the year.”
#Austin builder: “No end in sight for labor & material issues. Told by logistics guy last week that his company believes it will take at least a year to get the supply chain back to working.”
#Bakersfield builder: “Garage doors are most problematic, with always long lead times & back orders.”
#Boise builder: “HVAC equipment & garage doors are hard to get. Lead times for windows are now 4 months. Sales slowed sharply in September. Up until recently houses sold within a week after we listed for sale. Now listed houses are sitting with very little sales traffic.””
#Dallas builder: “Supply chain has gotten much worse in last 60 days. Costs are out of control. Lack of labor is driving most of the cost issues. Need demand to drop before things will change. Labor costs continue climbing each month while quality continues decreasing.”
#Denver builder: “Not just cost, it's availability. No reliable schedule on cabinets right now. Other products are hit & miss. Every aspect of the supply chain is a mess right now. 70% of lumber cost decrease in Q3 was offset by cost increases from other trade categories.”
#FortWorth builder: “Seemingly every week we face a new allocation, shortage, or delayed delivery.”
#Greenville builder: “Windows have a 16-week lead time. I-joists & trusses have a 12-week lead time. Some appliances are back ordered 3 months. Paint materials are back ordered 4 weeks.”
#Houston builder: “Price plateau only sustained by ultra-low rates. If rates move up 50 bps, builders should get ready for very slow sales without significant help from commodity suppliers, manufacturers & labor. Unable to forecast or manage labor costs.”
#LosAngeles builder: “It sucks. While I'm sure certain costs have increased due to COVID-related matters, certain suppliers & subcontractors seem to be gouging.”
#Louisville builder: “Supply chain disruptions are a daily challenge even when issuing purchase orders months in advance. Don't see anything improving on these fronts.”
#Philadelphia builder: “Even though lumber has come down from being up by 400%, every other item in the house has increased.”
#Reno builder: “Unfortunately, we see lumber increasing again currently.”
#SaltLakeCity builder: “We stopped sales for 4 months. Now opening up some but limited & finding much more buyer resistance at higher prices.”
#SanAntonio builder: “Availability of labor & windows are more of a challenge than rising costs at this point.”
#SanDiego builder: “Cost & schedule mayhem. No other words for it.”

Housing and car sales, oh my! - Last month I wrote that typically it has taken at least a 20% decline in housing construction to be consistent with an oncoming recession, and that we weren’t there yet. As of the most recent housing permits report, single family permits were down 17% from their recent peak: One of the most persuasive fundamentals-based models of economic cycles, by Prof. Edward Leamer, with decades of proof ever since World War 2, posits that housing is the most leading harbinger, turning down about 7 quarters before a recession, followed by motor vehicles, followed by producer durable goods, followed by consumer durable goods. So, the most recent report on motor vehicle sales is not very encouraging. I have stopped following the private manufacturer reports, because most producers have cut back to quarterly rather than monthly reports, so the monthly numbers are mainly estimates. But the BEA issues its own report with a one month delay, and the most recent report for August, just released, showed a decline of over 10% for that month alone, and a total decline of 28% since April (blue in the graph below). Meanwhile, the more leading heavy trucks segment also declined 5% for the month, and a total decline of 19% since March (red): Outside of the 1970 recession, heavy truck sales have declined at least 23% (and usually much more than that) before a recession began. Light vehicle, including cars, have typically declined at least 10%. So heavy truck sales have not quite hit the point of being consistent with an oncoming recession, although cars and light trucks have. It is important to note that our current situation is sui genesis compared with the past 70 years, because there has been no significant increase in either short or long term interest rates. Demand remains intact. This is entirely a supply bottleneck, which has driven prices for finished goods higher. A close analogy would be the oil shocks of the 1970s, at least one of which was an artificially caused supply shortage (the Arab Oil Embargo). The big difference here is that there is no wage-price inflationary spiral, because there are no unions able to obtain automatic “cost of living” wage increases. We have seen compared with wages increase sharply in many places due to the pandemic, but with all emergency benefits ended, that has or shortly will almost certainly cease. If the supply shortages do not ease shortly, then the next thing to watch out for is whether more broad durable goods spending by both producers and consumers stalls. In particular real retail sales per capita has almost always turned negative YoY shortly before the onset of recessions in the past 70 years: By contrast, at present YoY real retail sales are up almost 10%: If that number were to suddenly plummet close to 0, I would be much more concerned that the supply bottleneck was on the verge of creating a recession.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 9.2% Compared to Same Week in 2019 - Note: Since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, CoStar is comparing to 2019. From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Performance Slides in Latest Weekly Data: U.S. hotel performance dipped from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Oct. 2.
26 September through 2 October 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 61.7% (-9.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$130.87 (+1.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$80.78 (-8.2%)
*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019. But it is uncertain what will happen over the next couple of months with business travel. Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel.

Inflation Bites! Rising Prices Are Eating Up Personal Income Gains - Personal income rose again in August, but once again rising prices ate up all the gains and then some.Economists and pundits talk about inflation as an academic exercise. They rarely reflect on the fact that rising prices have real impacts on real people.Personal income from all sources rose by 0.2% from July to August. This includes wages, stimulus payments, transfer payments (unemployment, Social Security benefits, etc.) along with income from other sources such as interest, dividends, and rental income, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.But when you factor in inflation, “real” personal income fell by 0.2%. When factoring out government transfer payments, “real” personal income dropped 0.3% and fell below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. So, while Americans saw more money in their wallets, they were able to buy less with those dollars. As WolfStreet put it, “It’s tough getting beaten up by the worst bout of inflation in 30 years.”The green line represents the pre-pandemic trend.This is the second month in a row real incomes have dropped.Many pundits in the mainstream blow off inflation by pointing out that wages rise along with prices. But as this data shows, wages rarely rise at the same pace as prices. That means inflation puts a significant squeeze on the pocketbook, at least in the short term. Consumers continue to spend as the economy emerges from the pandemic era, but half of the spending increase in August simply reflected rising prices. Overall, spending rose 0.8% month-on-month. But when you factor out inflation, spending was only up 0.4%.

Americans are paying the most for gas in seven years - Gas prices have steadily climbed higher this year, and Americans are now paying the most at the pump in seven years.The national average price for a gallon of gas stood at $3.22 on Wednesday,according to AAA, which is the highest since at least October 2014. In some places, consumers are paying much more.In California, the average price is more than a dollar higher at $4.42. In the state's Mono County, prices have topped $5. Rising gas prices comes on the heels of an oil rebound. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, traded around $77.60 per barrel Wednesday, after topping $79 in the prior session for the first time since November 2014. One year ago, a barrel of WTI fetched about $40.Gas prices approaching $5 a gallon are displayed in front of a Shell gas station on October 05, 2021 in San Rafael, California.Demand for petroleum products plummeted in 2020 as the pandemic shut economies worldwide, prompting producers to turn off the taps. Though demand has recovered as people hit the road and business activity picks up, supply has remained constrained. Producers have been slow to return barrels to the market, and Hurricane Ida exacerbated the supply and demand imbalance when it knocked production in the Gulf of Mexico offline.In the face of rising oil prices, some thought the coalition of oil-producing nations known as OPEC+ would opt to increase output. Instead, the group decided Monday to stick to a previously agreed upon schedule to return 400,000 barrels per day to the market in November.Higher oil prices translates to higher gas prices for consumers, and Americans are paying more than $1 per gallon more than this time last year.

Trade Deficit Increased to $73.3 Billion in August - From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.3 billion in August, up $2.9 billion from $70.3 billion in July, revised. August exports were $213.7 billion, $1.0 billion more than July exports. August imports were $287.0 billion, $4.0 billion more than July imports.Exports increased and imports increased in August.Exports are up 23% compared to August 2020; imports are up 21% compared to August 2020. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports),The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.

Just Keeps Getting Worse: Services Trade Surplus, the American Dream-Not-Come-True, Worst in 10 Years. Imports Worst Ever. Trade Deficit Worst Ever - Back when offshoring production by Corporate America to cheap countries was hailed as good for the overall economy, rather than just good for Corporate America, any fears about potentially exploding trade deficits were papered over with visions of the new American Dream: America was great at producing and selling high-value services – the financialization of everything, movies, software, business services, IT services, etc. Exports of these high-value services would make up for the imports of cheap goods. And trade would balance out.Today, we got another dose of just how spectacularly this strategy has failed. The overall trade deficit in goods and services hit a new all-time worst in August of $73 billion (seasonally adjusted), according to the Commerce Department today. The trade balance in services deteriorated to a surplus of only $16.1 billion, the lowest since 2011, while imports of goods reached the worst ever $239 billion, and exports of goods edged up to a record of $150 billion, thanks to $33 billion in exports of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, natural gas liquids, products from the petrochemical industry, and coal. Following the Financial Crisis, the overall trade deficit improved substantially, as imports plunged as consumers cut back on buying imported goods. That was the one major strength in the GDP formula for those months, as nearly everything else cratered. But it didn’t last long.During the Pandemic, the opposite happened: Consumer demand exploded, fueled by $4.5 trillion in monetary stimulus and $5 trillion in borrowed fiscal stimulus, for the most grotesquely overstimulated economy ever.It fired up imports of goods and boosted foreign manufacturers and caused the worst supply-chain problems and transportation chaos ever, but did little for what would really move the needle: US exports.Trade deficits are not a sign of a growing economy, and they’re not a sign of economic strength, but a sign of continued large-scale offshoring of production by Corporate America of consumer and industrial goods to cheap countries.Imports are a negative in the GDP calculation; exports are a positive. And GDP in Q2 was hit hard by the record trade deficit and disappointed expectations. The trade surplus in services (exports of services minus imports of services) in August fell to $16.1 billion, the lowest since December 2011, and was down 33% from the average month in 2019. And it was dwarfed by the immense trade deficit in goods (exports of goods minus imports of goods) of $89.4 billion. Exports of services, the product of American genius, ticked down to $64 billion in August, and imports of services rose to $47.9 billion. The difference between these exports and imports is the fizzling and small trade surplus in services:

Cargo ships anchored near Los Angeles and New York ports face a 4-week delay to dock, raising further fears over the global supply chain, a report says - Dozens of cargo ships anchored off the West coast could be waiting up to four weeks before they can dock, The Daily Mail reported.The backlog comes during a period of port staff shortages, which have been blamed on the national labor crunch. Increased demand for consumer goods has also played a significant role. The COVID-19 pandemic has put additional strain on supply chains. This is partly because social distancing and mandatory quarantines have hampered the ability of port staff to carry out their jobs, Insider previously reported. With record numbers of huge cargo ships stuck at key ports, consumers could face a shortage of items, including clothing, electronics, toys, and furniture, according to The Daily Mail."Global infrastructure was not designed to handle goods at such a rate," a logistics expert who spoke anonymously, told the outlet. Supply chains are the artery that feeds our entire ecosystem, the expert said. "The government needs to intervene to stop this crisis immediately, or face increased inflation and unemployment, and economic breakdown — or face an end to global trade," they added. As a result of ongoing delays, many retailers are being forced to find creative ways to overcome shortages and price hikes.The news comes amid concern from most Americans, who believe the ongoing supply chain crisis will upset their life plans, according to a study from Oracle, which was reported on by Insider's Grace Kay.

Supply chain crisis prompts Walmart and rivals to hire own ships -The Flying Buttress used to travel across oceans carrying essential commodities like grain to the furthest corners of the world. Now it bears a different treasure: "Paw Patrol" Towers, Batmobile Transformers and Baby Alive Lulu Achoo dolls. The dry bulk cargo ship has been drafted into the service of retail giant Walmart, which is chartering its own vessels in an effort to beat the global supply chain disruptions that threaten to torpedo the retail industry's make-or-break holiday season. The aim is to bypass log-jammed ports and secure scarce ship space at a time when COVID-19, as well as U.S.-China trade ructions, equipment shortages and extreme weather, have exposed the fragility of the globe-spanning supply lines we use for everything from food and fashion to drinks and diapers. More than 60 container ships carrying clothing, furniture and electronics worth billions of dollars are stuck outside Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals, waiting to unload, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California. Other big retail players, such as Target, Home Depot, Costco and Dollar Tree, have said they are chartering ships to deal with the pandemic-driven slowdown of sea networks that handle 90% of the world's trade. Or, as Steve Ferreira of shipping consultancy Ocean Audit describes the escalating concern: "Containergeddon." U.S. retailers' traditional lifeline from Asia is freezing up due to a resurgence of COVID-19 in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia plus a power-supply crunch in China. The supply snarls coincide with booming demand as consumers spend more on goods than going out, and the festive shopping frenzy nears. The biggest chains are taking matters into their own hands. In a typical year, Walmart would have moved those toys from China to Los Angeles in hundreds of 40-foot (12-meter) cargo boxes stacked like colorful Lego bricks on gigantic container vessels that serve multiple customers. But 2021 is far from typical. Incoming cargo at the Port of Los Angeles is up 30% from last year's record levels. Trucks and trains can't remove it fast enough, leading to logjams, said the port's Executive Director Gene Seroka, reflecting the surge in consumer demand. "It's like taking 10 lanes of freeway traffic and squeezing them into five," Seroka said. Chartered ships that offer valuable cargo space and can sidestep the container terminals play a critical role in this second pandemic holiday season, particularly for time-sensitive goods like Christmas sweaters that won't sell if they arrive too late. The Flying Buttress, for example, entered Los Angeles waters on Aug. 21. It got stuck in a queue outside the port before it bypassed clogged terminals and unloaded its goods at a separately operated bulk cargo dock nearby on Aug. 31, according to Refinitiv data and shipping records. During that voyage, Walmart circumvented the shortage of 40-foot containers typically used for global shipping by switching to bigger 53-foot containers that are almost exclusively used to move goods by truck and train within the United States. Other companies are also playing the shipping game including Home Depot which said it was "creatively working to obtain additional capacity." The home improvement retailer dodged the Los Angeles gridlock by sending its Great Profit charter ship nearly 125 miles (201.17 kilometers) south to the Port of San Diego. They're doing whatever it takes" to win in an overheated market, he said of retailers.

AAR: September Rail Carloads and Intermodal Down Compared to 2019 - From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Rail traffic in September 2021 was a mix of good and could-be-better, reflecting continuing broad supply chain issues and an economy that doesn’t appear sure where it’s going.U.S. intermodal volume in September 2021 was down 6.7% from last year and down 0.1% from September 2019. The smooth functioning of intermodal terminals depends on consistent freight outflows to make room for new freight inflows. Unfortunately, that’s not happening right now because of supply chain capacity constraints, with predicable impacts on intermodal. U.S. intermodal in 2021 through September was the second most ever, fractionally behind the first nine months of 2018.Total U.S. carloads in September were up 4.3% over last year, their seventh straight monthly gain This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2019, 2020 and 2021:U.S. railroads originated 1.17 million total carloads in September 2021, up 4.3% (47,858 carloads) over September 2020 but down 5.8% (71,773 carloads) from September 2019. Total carloads averaged 233,536 per week in September 2021. That’s more than in September 2020, but otherwise it’s the lowest weekly average for September in our data that go back to 1988.The second graph shows the six week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2019, 2020 and 2021: (using intermodal or shipping containers):U.S. railroads originated 1.33 million intermodal containers and trailers in September 2021, down 6.7% from September 2020 and down 0.1% from September 2019. The 6.7% decline in September follows a 3.3% decline in August, which in turn followed a year of monthly intermodal gains. Intermodal volume averaged 265,705 containers and trailers per week in September 2021, the fewest since February 2021 (when a freakishly severe winter storm in Texas and surrounding states decimated rail traffic) and, before that, since July 2020.

August Markit Services PMI: Slowest Rise in 9 Months - The September US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 54.9 percent, down 0.2 from the final August estimate of 55.1. Here is the opening from the latest press release: “The service sector showed further signs of struggling amid the COVID-19 Delta wave in September. While business activity is growing at a rate in line with the long-run average seen prior to the pandemic, this represents a marked downshifting from the spring and summer months. “High virus case numbers have not only subdued demand for many services, notably among consumers in the hospitality sector, the pandemic continues to hit the labor market both in terms of staff absences amid the spread of the virus and low labor market participation rates meaning it is difficult to fill vacancies. “With COVID-19 cases numbers appearing to have peaked early in September, the situation in terms of demand and labor supply should start to improve as we head into the fourth quarter; a sentiment supported by business optimism rising in the service sector to the highest since June and an unprecedented strong build-up of back orders.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

ISM® Services Index Increased to 61.9% in September - The September ISM® Services index was at 61.9%, up from 61.7% last month. The employment index decreased to 53.0%, from 53.7%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 61.9%, September 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business® “The Services PMI® registered 61.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 61.7 percent in August. The September reading indicates the 16th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 140 months. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 68.8 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from August’s reading of 69.6 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Prices Index registered 77.5 percent, up 2.1 percentage points from the August figure of 75.4 percent.”, “According to the Services PMI®, 17 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 16th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. The slight uptick in the rate of expansion in the month of September continued the current period of strong growth for the services sector. However, ongoing challenges with labor resources, logistics, and materials are affecting the continuity of supply.”This was above the consensus forecast, however the employment index decreased slightly to 53.0%, from 53.7% the previous month.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 326,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending October 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 326,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 362,000 to 364,000. The 4-week moving average was 344,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 340,000 to 340,500.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 344,000.The previous week was revised up. Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,714,000 (SA) from 2,811,000 (SA) the previous week. Note (released with a 2 week delay): There were an additional 647,690 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 1,059,248 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This was a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And threre were an additional 630,814 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 991,813.Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

ADP: Private Employment increased 568,000 in September --From ADP: - Private sector employment increased by 568,000 jobs from August to September according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual data of those who are on a company’s payroll, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis“The labor market recovery continues to make progress despite a marked slowdown from the 748,000 job pace in the second quarter,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve, setting the stage for solid job gains in the coming months.” This was well above the consensus forecast of 430,000 for this report.The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 460 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in September. The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.

ADP Signals Bigger Than Expected Jobs Gain In September - While initial jobless claims have been rising recently (dominated by California), analysts still expected ADP to show a pick up in new jobs to 430k (from 374k in August), and it did, smashing expectations with a 568k increase (after August's print was revised down from +374k to +340k). That is the biggest increase since June as we note this is happening as pandemic emergency benefits are removed from Americans. Jobs rose in every industry and across every size cohort with Services jobs dominating once again... Good-Producing jobs rose by 102k - the biggest monthly jump since September 2020... The data come ahead of Friday’s monthly employment report from the Labor Department, which is currently forecast to show the U.S. added 450,000 private payrolls in September. “The labor market recovery continues to make progress despite a marked slowdown from the 748,000 job pace in the second quarter,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve, setting the stage for solid job gains in the coming months. " This all suggests the taper is still on.

A Closer Look at Yesterday's ADP Employment Report - In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company's earliest published data in April 2002. This is quite a volatile series, so we've plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend. As we see in the chart above, the trend peaked 20 months before the last recession and went negative around the time that the NBER subsequently declared as the recession start. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought employment numbers down to levels we have never seen this century. ADP also gives us a breakdown of Total Nonfarm Private Employment into two categories: Goods Producing and Services. Here is the same chart style illustrating the two. The US is predominantly a services economy, so it comes as no surprise that Services employment has shown stronger jobs growth. The trend in Goods Producing jobs went negative over a year before the last recession. It makes sense that service-producing employment has plummeted during the pandemic for a couple of reasons - our economy is mostly supported by service-producing jobs, and during the pandemic, those same services were brought to a halt. For a sense of the relative size of Services over Goods Producing employment, the next chart shows the percentage of Services Jobs across the entire series. The latest data point is below the record high.There are a number of factors behind this trend. In addition to our increasing dependence on Services, Goods Production employment continues to be impacted by automation and offshoring.For a better sense of the components of the two Goods Producing and Service Providing cohorts, here is a snapshot of the five select industries tracked by ADP. The two things to note here are the relative sizes of the industries and the relative trends. Note that Construction and Manufacturing are Production industries whereas the other three are Service Providing. For a longer-term perspective on the Goods Producing and Service Providing employment, see our monthly analysis, Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing, which is based on data from the Department of Labor's monthly jobs report reaching back to 1939.

September Employment Report: 194 Thousand Jobs, 4.8% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 38,000, from +1,053,000 to +1,091,000, and the change for August was revised up by 131,000, from +235,000 to +366,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 169,000 higher than previously reported..The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In September, the year-over-year change was 5.7 million jobs. This was up significantly year-over-year.Total payrolls increased by 194 thousand in August. Private payrolls increased by 317 thousand.Payrolls for July and August were revised up 169 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession". The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was declined to 61.6% in September, from 61.7% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.7% from 58.5% (black line).The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate decreased in September to 4.8% from 5.2% in August.This was well below consensus expectations, however July and August were revised up by 169,000 combined.

US economy adds 194K jobs in September, missing estimates --U.S. employers hired fewer workers than expected last month as supplemental unemployment benefits expired. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 194,000 workers in September as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting the addition of 500,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to slip to 5.1%. The jobs gains in August were revised up to 366,000 from 235,000. "The labor market recovery continues to hit the brakes this month, but is far from completely stopping," said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor. "Despite the soft September report, there's still a case for optimism in the coming months, as we are beginning to look in the rearview mirror, and the peak of the Delta wave’s repercussions is behind us." President Biden addressed the report Friday and defended his record on the economy as "progress." "In total, the job creation in the first eight months of my administration is nearly five million jobs," Biden said. "Jobs up, wages up, unemployment down. That's progress." The September report was the first since the $300 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits expired on September 5. Economists are still assessing the impact of the Child Tax Credit, which pays families up to $3,600 per child per year. Also having an impact going forward will be the mandatory vaccine requirements being enforced by a growing number of companies. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (+74,000) were led by the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector (+43,000). Hiring in food services and drinking places was little changed for a second straight month after averaging a monthly gain of 197,000 from January through July. Professional and business services (+60,000), retail trade (+56,000), and transportation and warehousing (+47,000) also saw sizable gains. Both local government education (-144,000) and state government education (-17,000) lost jobs last month. The number workers reentering the labor force decreased by 198,000 last month to 2.3 million. The labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.6%, and was 1.7 percentage points below its February 2020 level. The rate has held between 61.4% and 61.7% since June 2020. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% in September and was up 4.6% year over year. Economists were expecting a 0.4% monthly increase and a 4.6% year over year gain. "After looking like almost a done deal, today’s jobs number has thrown expectations for tapering into disarray," said Principal Global Investors Chief Strategist Seema Shah, adding that the hotter-than-expected hourly wage growth presents the Fed with a "real conundrum."

America’s unemployed are sending a message: They’ll go back to work when they feel safe – and well-compensated -The anemic September employment report, with only 194,000 jobs added, illustrates the extent to which the recovery stalled as coronavirus cases surged last month, but it also signals something deeper: America’s unemployed are still struggling with child-care and health issues, and they are reluctant to return to jobs they see as unsafe or undercompensated.For months, economists predicted a surge in hiring in September as unemployment benefits expired for millions of workers and schools reopened across the country. Instead, last month marked the weakest hiring this year, and an alarming number of women had to stop working again to deal with unstable school and child-care situations. The numbers are striking: 309,000 women over age 20 dropped out of the labor force in September, meaning they quit work or halted their job searches. In contrast, 182,000 men joined the labor force, Labor Department data showed. The simplest explanation for the mediocre jobs gains in September is the rapidly spreading delta variant of the coronavirus. It zapped a lot of momentum from the recovery as people in many parts of the country became more hesitant to eat out and travel. A mere 2,100 jobs were added in hotels and just29,000 in restaurants.The delta surge also torpedoed the reopening of public schools and the return to in-person learning. Schools repeatedly faced outbreaks and concerns from staff members, including many bus drivers, who were hesitant to go back to driving vehicles teeming with children, as those under 12 can’t be vaccinated. “It’s been so unpredictable. In-person school has not been reliable, and working moms had to balance that with trying to have a career,” said Alicia Sasser Modestino, an economics professor at Northeastern University. “My 9-year-old woke up with sniffles and could not go to school today. I am living this in real time.”The September jobs report offered fresh evidence contradicting Republicans who have said that generous unemployment aid has been keeping people away from the workforce. Millions of people lost all aid or had it significantly scaled back at the start of September. But there was not an immediate wave of workers returning to jobs.The key takeaway from the jobs report is that this is an uneven and bumpy recovery. The reason the United States has roughly 11 million job openings and 7.7 million unemployed is more complex than many are willing to admit.The coronavirus continues to be a major factor in people’s hesitancy to return to work, but there is something deeper going on in 2021. Workers, especially low-wage workers, are revolting against years of poor pay and stressful conditions. It remains unclear how the Great Reassessment of work will play out going forward. For now, people are still hesitant to take the first jobs available to them, if they don’t believe they’re good jobs. And they are not reluctant to quit a situation they don’t like.“The big news out of the jobs report was the delta variant slowed things down. That disproportionately hit lower-wage workers,” said University of Michigan economist Betsey Stevenson. “But people are also thinking they can afford to wait for a better job — or a safe job — to come along.”

September jobs report: once again, two very different surveys net to a “relatively” disappointing gain --As I previously indicated, two items I was particularly watching for in this morning’s report were (1) manufacturing hours and payrolls - to see if that white-hot sector was holding up in the face of supply bottlenecks, and (2) whether there were continued gains in leisure and hospitality jobs, or whether Delta had caused those to stall. While this morning’s report came in well short of expectations, with the big positive revisions to previous months the 6 month average of monthly gains is still over 600,000. Here’s my synopsis of the report:

194,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 317,000, but government (mainly education) shed -123,000 jobs, having a great deal to do with haywire seasonal adjustments this year. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 526,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
The total number of employed is still -5,333,000, or -3.3% below its pre-pandemic peak. At this rate jobs have grown in the past 6 months (which have averaged 653,000 per month), it will take another 8 months for employment to completely recover.
U3 unemployment rate declined -0.4% to 4.8%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%.
U6 underemployment rate declined -0.3% to 8.5%, compared with the January 2020 low of 6.9%.
Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, rose 287,000 to 5.969 million, compared with 5.010 million in February 2020.
Those on temporary layoff decreased 128,000 to 1,124,000.
Permanent job losers declined -236,000 to 2,251,000.
July was revised upward by 38,000, while August was revised upward by 131,000, for a net gain of 169,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was unchanged at 40.4 hours.
Manufacturing jobs increased 26,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, manufacturing has still lost -343,000 jobs, or -2.8% of the total.
Construction jobs increased 22,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, -201,000 construction jobs have been lost, or -2.6% of the total.
Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 2,100. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 42,500 jobs have been *gained* in this sector, or +5.1%.
temporary jobs declined by -5,200. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have still been 256,800 jobs lost, or -8.7% of all temporary jobs.
the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less increased by 154,000 to 2,237,000, which is 155,000 higher than just before the pandemic hit.
Professional and business employment increased by 60,000, which is still -385,000, or about -1.8%, below its pre-pandemic peak.
Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.14 to $26.15, which is a 5.5% YoY gain. This continues to be excellent news, considering that a huge number of low-wage workers have finally been recalled to work.
the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by 0.5%, which is a loss of -2.8% since just before the pandemic.
the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 1.0%, which is a gain of 6.0% since just before the pandemic.
Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, gained 74,000 jobs, and is still -1,594,000, or -9.4% below their pre-pandemic peak.
Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments gained 29,000 jobs, and is still -930,400, or -7.6% below their pre-pandemic peak.
Full time jobs increased 591,000 in the household report.
Part time jobs increased declined -36,000 in the household report.
The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons declined by -1,000 to 4,468,000, which is an increase of 70,000 since before the pandemic began.

SUMMARY: Once again there were two very different reports: the establishment survey was relatively weak for the second month in a row (again strongly influenced by the seasonality of the education sector), while the household survey was very strong. In general there were weak gains across the board in all sectors of business hiring. Of the two areas I was most paying attention to, manufacturing hours were steady, and payrolls increased at their typical rate since the pandemic lockdowns ended. Meanwhile the food and beverage and wider leisure and hospitality sectors had their second month of very weak gains in a row, indicating a major impact from the Delta wave on consumer behavior. The most positive news was the continued strong increase in aggregate employee hours and wages, plus the second month in a row of very positive revisions to the prior two months’ data.On the household side of the report, full time jobs increased sharply, while part time jobs declined slightly, and total jobs increased over half a million for the second month in a row. Both the unemployment and underemployment rates declined sharply once again. On the other hand, those not in the labor force who nonetheless want a job now increased.I suspect that the more volatile household report is giving us a slightly leading signal vs. the establishment report, so I am discounting a little bit the mediocre job sector gains in the establishment report. At the same time, it is clear that the pandemic continues to have a big negative effect on services that involve indoor activities. All in all, a decent positive report - just not as good as most people were hoping for.

Comments on September Employment Report - McBride - The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well below expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised up significantly. The participation rate declined, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.8%. Leisure and hospitality gained 74 thousand jobs in September. In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 1.6 million jobs since February 2020. So leisure and hospitality has now added back about 80% of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 22 thousand, and manufacturing added 26 thousand jobs. State and Local education lost 161 thousand jobs, seasonally adjusted, versus expectations of a solid gain. This was a key contributor to the weak job report. Earlier: September Employment Report: 194 Thousand Jobs, 4.8% Unemployment Rate In September, the year-over-year employment change was 5.7 million jobs. This turned positive in April due to the sharp jobs losses in April 2020. This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today. (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg). This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In August, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 2.251 million from 2.487 million in August. These jobs will likely be the hardest to recover, so it is a positive that the number of permanent job losers is declining rapidly. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key as the economy recovers. The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in September to 81.6% from 81.8% in August, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 78.0% from 78.0% in August. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons was essentially unchanged in September at 4.468 million from 4.469 million in August. This is back close to pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 8.5% from 8.8% in August. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This measure was at 7.0% in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 2.683 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 3.179 million in August. This does not include all the people that left the labor force. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was well below expectations, however the previous two months were revised up by 169,000 combined. And the headline unemployment rate decreased to 4.8%. There was some good news - the decline in the unemployment rate, the decline in permanent job losers, and the decline in long term unemployed - however, there are still 5.0 million fewer jobs than prior to the recession, and overall this was a disappointing report, probably due to the sharp increase in COVID cases in September.

Fired for refusing a Covid vaccine? You likely can’t get unemployment benefits As businesses and lawmakers increasingly require workers to get a Covid-19 vaccine, thousands of holdouts are losing their jobs — and they likely can't collect unemployment benefits. However, there may be exceptions, depending on a worker's situation, according to employment experts. Some state legislatures are trying to change their rules altogether. "If you don't want to be vaccinated, don't have a religious or disability exemption, and you lose your job, chances are you will be found ineligible for unemployment compensation," The issue may soon affect many more people — about 46% of organizations plan to institute a vaccine mandate, according to survey published by Gartner, a consulting firm, last month. The U.S. Department of Labor is also soon expected to issue a rule mandating vaccines (or regular Covid testing) among businesses with at least 100 employees. The White House is also requiring vaccines for all federal workers, contractors who do work for the federal government and health-care workers at facilities receiving Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements. Earlier this year, 28% of employed Americans said they wouldn't get a Covid vaccine even if it costs them their job, according to the Society for Human Resource Management. (The group surveyed 1,000 people in January and February.) Workers qualify for unemployment benefits in cases of "eligible job separation," according to Anne Paxton, an attorney and policy director at the Unemployment Law Project, which represents individuals in appeals cases when their benefits have been denied. States somewhat differ in their definitions. In most, workers can collect benefits after they are laid off, quit a job for "good cause" or get fired for a reason other than "misconduct," Paxton said. However, a labor agency would likely deem refusal to comply with a vaccine mandate as "misconduct," she said. Losing one's job as a result would therefore likely disqualify a worker from benefits (if the refusal hadn't been for a medical or religious reason). Similarly, quitting to avoid a mandate would also likely not be viewed as "good cause."

Americans Fired for Ignoring Vax Mandates Using GoFundMe for Help - Many Americans who say they were fired for ignoring their employers' vaccine mandates are turning to GoFundMe for help, but don't regret it. President Joe Biden in September announced a sweeping vaccine mandate that would require everyone working for businesses with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or be tested weekly. Though the rules have yet to be finalized or implemented, many employers imposed mandates sooner. In some placed, like Maine and California, state-level mandates have been active for weeks. As a result, thousands of people have lost their jobs, from healthcare workers to airline staff. Those who feel the step was needed to boost vaccination rates welcomed the mandate, while others labeled it an authoritarian imposition. But ignoring vaccine mandates has left many without an income. Insider identified more than two dozen GoFundMe pages set up by people asking for financial aid to pay their bills or to launch legal challenges against their former employers. One of those asking for help is Stephanie Grandy, who worked as a registered nurse at Northern Light AR Gould Hospital in Maine until her contract was terminated on August 31. Insider has verified Grandy's employment history and the hospital did not respond to Insider's request for comment for this story. Grandy, a practising Messianic Jew, told Insider she declined the vaccine on religious and ethical grounds: "The Lord specifically told me not to take the shot," she said. "Then we learned they used aborted fetal cell lines in the research and development of the drugs. We believe abortion is murder. It would be a sin to take these drugs into our bodies."Fetal cell lines — cells grown using DNA from aborted fetuses — were used in the development of several mRNA vaccines, and during the production of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine. Many pro-life groups have shunned the vaccine as a result. The US-based Messianic Jewish Rabbinical Council encourages followers to get vaccinated and notes that "not all vaccines are created from fetal cell lines."While employed at Northern Light AR Gould Hospital Grandy had applied for a religious exemption under Maine law, but Gov. Janet Mills scrapped that exemption last month."Basically, you must get the shot, no exemptions," Grandy said of the new policy.But she said she doesn't regret the decision, and said many of her colleagues only got the vaccine to keep their jobs. "Nurses, CNAs [certified nursing assistants], housekeeping, and dietary staff I worked with did not want to take the shot, but most were forced to do so because there is literally no where else to work here," she said.

Evidence on the Effects of Work Requirements in Safety Net Programs - The US government responded to the Covid-19 pandemic with an unprecedented expansion of the social safety net. This effort is estimated to have kept 17 million people out of poverty in 2020 (Census Bureau 2021, Han et al. 2020). However, the unwinding of these temporary measures has reopened questions about the appropriate generosity of the social safety net. At the heart of these debates is whether unconditional government aid harms society by discouraging work. Because government resources are finite, policy design must contend with how to best target support to households in times of need. Existing economic research has documented both benefits and costs of government programmes that do not make aid conditional on work (Corman et al. 2018, Dahl and Gielen 2018, Mosley 2021). In the 1990s, economists theoretically analysed how imposing barriers to receiving benefits can have the effect of steering programme dollars to those who benefit the most because they will try the hardest to overcome the barriers (Nichols and Zeckhauser 1982, Besley and Coate 1992). But this conclusion requires certain assumptions that may not hold in practice, such as assuming that the barriers are no higher for low-income people than for high-income people. Until recently, there has been little research testing these assumptions, but recent advances have shown that the assumptions often fail to hold (Deshpande and Li 2019, Homonoff and Somerville forthcoming).This column looks at the impact of the reinstatement of work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in the US following a hiatus during the Great Recession. The authors find that work requirements do not appear to improve economic self-sufficiency, while substantially reducing benefits paid to programme recipients.

Facing compounding stressors, many American workers plan to change jobs in coming year - As the pandemic grinds on through a second year, many American workers are feeling the pressure, and many say they intend to leave their jobs within a year, according to a new survey from the American Psychological Association.Work stress related to low salaries, long hours and a lack of opportunity for growth and advancement has increased since the start of the pandemic. More than 4 in 10 workers said they plan to switch jobs in the coming year, which could impact many industries already facing a shortage of workers, particularly the hospitality and healthcare sectors.APA’s 2021 Work and Well-being survey was conducted online by The Harris Poll among more than 1,500 U.S. employees between July 26 and Aug. 4, 2021.Nearly 6 in 10 (59%) reported experiencing negative impacts of work-related stress. Low salaries (56%, up from 49% in 2019), long hours (54%, up from 46%) and lack of opportunity for growth or advancement (52%, up from 44%) were most commonly reported as having a very or somewhat significant impact on stress levels at work, according to the poll.More than 2 in 5 employees (44%) said that they intend to seek employment outside of their company or organization in the next year, up from around 1 in 3 (32%) in 2019. (APA did not conduct a similar survey in 2020.) But among some marginalized communities, the numbers were even more striking – 58% of Hispanic employees, 57% of Black employees, 56% of LGBTQ+ employees and 63% of workers with disabilities said that they intend to seek a job with another employer in the next year.“Stress at work can have broad negative consequences for employers and employees alike, including loss of productivity, high turnover, and repercussions for the employee’s physical and emotional health,” said Arthur C. Evans Jr., PhD., APA’s chief executive officer. “A workplace that pays attention to worker well-being is better positioned to recruit and retain engaged and productive staff.” Nearly six in ten workers (59%) said that they had experienced negative impacts of work-related stress in the prior month including a lack of interest, motivation or energy (26%), difficulty focusing (21%) or a lack of effort at work (19%). More than two-thirds of front-line workers (67%) reported experiencing negative impacts of work-related stress and more than 1 in 3 (35%) said they had felt fed up at work quite frequently or more often in the past 30 days.

1,400 Kellogg’s workers launch strike in the US, joining growing upsurge of workers’ struggles - Over 1,400 workers at food manufacturer Kellogg’s launched a strike at four locations across the US after their contract expired at midnight on Tuesday morning. The strike is at all four of the company’s cereal factories in the country, which make products such as Special K, Frosted Flakes and Rice Krispies. The workers are members of the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union (BCTGM). The four plants are in Battle Creek, Michigan, where the company’s global headquarters are located; Omaha, Nebraska; Lancaster, Pennsylvania; and Memphis, Tennessee. The Kellogg’s workers’ demands will be familiar to millions of workers across the country: the reversal of attacks on pay and benefits, as well as an end to a divisive two-tier wage structure and the brutal overtime regime which the company has imposed during the pandemic. Brian Leche, an electrician at the Battle Creek plant, told local news: “Some people at the plant don’t have a scheduled day for the entire year. We aren’t willing to accept that anymore.” Relentless overtime and efforts to cut labor costs are being imposed at workplaces all around the country and the world, as transnational corporations seek to insulate their profits from the impact of massive disruptions to global supply chains triggered by the pandemic. At Nabisco plants where workers went on strike last month, seven-day workweeks and 16 hours are also the norm. In the auto industry, workers at parts suppliers such as Dana Inc. and critical assembly plants such as Stellantis’ Sterling Heights Assembly Plant have been working mandated weekends throughout the entire year. In spite of the crisis in world production and the ongoing pandemic, corporations such as Kellogg’s continue to rake in profits. Kellogg’s latest quarterly financial report recorded an increase of 8.26 percent in net income year-on-year, for a total of $380 million. Its stock has risen nearly 15 percent from its low in March of 2020.

Five passengers on first post-COVID cruise from NYC test positive - At least five passengers on the first cruise out of New York City since the COVID-19 pandemic began have tested positive for the virus.The passengers were aboard the Crystal Symphony, en route to Bermuda, when their PCR tests came back positive, according to Crystal Cruises.The COVID-positive were transferred to quarantine hotels on Bermuda. The passengers and ship were then subjected to quarantine and retesting on the ship.The 781-foot vessel can carry 848 passengers,according to the company, which wouldn’t say how many were aboard.All guests were required to be vaccinated to board the cruise.They departed Sept. 24 from Manhattan’s Pier 88. The ship returned to New York on Friday — before turning around for another trip to Bermuda’s Royal Naval Dockyard. Fares for the Oct. 8 voyage start at $2,099.The Bermuda government didn’t immediately return requests for comment.

Americans are desperate to visit Hawaii – but apparently not enough to get vaccinated - If you’re an unvaccinated American headed to Hawaii, and you want to avoid quarantine, you’ll need to provide the state with a negative Covid test. Alternatively, you could attempt to fake out authorities – and get arrested for it. A pair from Los Angeles have apparently opted for the latter. A 33-year-old woman and 34-year-old man were recently arrested after allegedly faking negative Covid test results in hopes of dodging Hawaii’s travel requirements. According to a police statement last week, they uploaded false results into the state’s system, which flagged the documents and prompted an investigation. The travelers were arrested in Hawaii and sent back to California, with a court date pending.The pair are the latest to join in the strange tradition of falsifying Covid-related documents, an issue that appears to be particularly acute among travelers to Hawaii. It seems the prospect of a sun-kissed trip warrants skirting the law – but not going to Walgreens to get a free injection that could save your life.A Chicago-area woman who visited the state in August allegedly uploaded a false vaccine record in a bid to skip quarantine. One big tip-off: she spelled “Moderna” on the card as “Maderna”. The same month, another California duo, this time a father and son, were charged after allegedly attempting to pull off a similar maneuver. A couple from Florida also allegedly sought to escape a Hawaiian quarantine using fake vaccine cards – including cards for their children, who weren’t old enough to be vaccinated in the first place.An Illinois woman submitted a fake vaccine record to avoid Hawaii’s 10-day traveler quarantine, according to authorities, but there a glaring spelling error that led to her arrest: Moderna was misspelled “Maderna”.Photograph: APFalsifying the cards carries a penalty of up to $5,000 or a prison term of up to a year, Hawaii News Now reported.Stories like these are just the latest pandemic frustration for residents of Hawaii. In March 2020, the governor, David Ige, instituted a mandatory quarantine for visitors; by the end of the month, tourism had plummeted. But the islands have still faced an influx of remote workers and tourists whom residents accused of treating their home as a “playground” at a dangerous time. Even as restrictions have loosened over the summer, Ige urged visitors to stay away as cases and hospitalizations rose.Meanwhile, headaches over fake documentation continue across the US. False cards have also turned up on Amazon and Etsy; others accused of falsifying cards include a California bar owner, a CVS employee and Vermont state troopers. And last week, a Michigan nurse was arrested after allegedly selling vaccination cards for $150 to $200 each over Facebook Messenger.

Almost 1 in 5 health care workers quit their jobs during COVID-19: poll --Nearly 1 in 5 health care workers reported that they have quit their job during the COVID-19 pandemic. A poll of 1,000 health care workers, which was conducted Sept. 2-8 by Morning Consult, showed that 18 percent of medical workers polled quit their jobs during the pandemic. Additionally, 31 percent reported that they had at least thought about leaving their work. The workers cited issues like poor pay, pandemic-related safety fears and burnout as the reasons for their departure, according to Morning Consult.

Deadly auto crashes more likely during pandemic lockdown - – With fewer people on the road during the early days of the pandemic, more drivers were speeding and driving recklessly, resulting in more crashes being deadly, a new study found. Researchers at The Ohio State University conducted a detailed analysis of traffic in Franklin County, Ohio, which includes Columbus, from Feb. 1 to May 8, 2020 – the period right before and after COVID-19 stay-at-home orders were instituted by the state governor.While the total number of collisions declined after the lockdown, the proportion of those crashes that were incapacitating or fatal more than doubled, results showed.“More of the crashes that did occur were severe, not just because of less congestion, but also because of drivers who were speeding, and driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs,” said Jonathan Stiles, lead author of the study and a postdoctoral researcher ingeography at Ohio State. Pandemic driving also led to far fewer rear-end collisions and more single-vehicle crashes, findings revealed.The study was published this week in the journal Transportation Research Record and will appear in a special issue on COVID-19.

US police have killed more than 30,000 people since 1980 -- A new study published in The Lancet found that US law enforcement killed at least 30,800 people from 1980 to 2019. The study, conducted at the University of Washington School of Medicine’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, also found a sharp increase in police killings over the period covering almost 40 years. During the 1980s the mortality rate associated with police violence was 0.25 per 100,000. By the 2010s the rate jumped up to 0.34 per 100,000, an increase of 38.4 percent. Moreover, researchers discovered that more than half of fatal encounters with police in the United States went unreported at the same time. The study estimated 55 percent of deaths from police violence were not reported or were misclassified in official government databases between 1980 and 2018. These unreported killings represent more than 17,000 deaths at the hands of US police that were kept from public view over a period covering almost 40 years. However, this troubling statistic is still likely an underestimation of the real impact of police brutality. The new study provides a clearer picture of the issue of police violence in the United States. However, it does not fully account for the real social toll. What’s missing from this report is the untold number of victims that are brutalized by police but survive the physical and emotional scars bore by the victims and their families and the immeasurable suffering inflicted on families and communities that lose a loved one at the hands of police. To grasp the extent of underreporting of police-involved killings, researchers compared data from the US National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), a government database that collates all death certificates, to three common open-source databases on fatal police violence: Fatal Encounters, Mapping Police Violence and The Counted. Open-source databases collect information from news reports and public record requests, encompassing a wider range of incidents. The paper noted a Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study found that police killings accounted for 293,000 global deaths from 1980 to 2019. In 2019, the US accounted for 13.2 percent of the 8,770 global deaths at the hands of police, while only accounting for 4 percent of the world’s population. “The difference these practices have on loss of life is staggering: No one died from police violence in Norway in 2019, and three people were recorded to have died in England and Wales from police violence between 2018 and 2019,” the researchers wrote.

L.A. Sheriff Rejects County Vaccine Mandate for His Officers - The sheriff of Los Angeles County reiterated this week that he would not compel members of his staff to be inoculated against the coronavirus, in defiance of the county’s order that all of its 110,000 employees show proof of vaccination by Oct. 1.“No, I am not forcing anyone,” said Sheriff Alex Villanueva, after reading aloud a submitted question in a town hall-style eventstreamed live on Facebook on Wednesday. “The issue has become so politicized there are entire groups of employees that are willing to be fired and laid off rather than get vaccinated,” the sheriff said, adding that he could not afford to lose any staff over the county mandate.The L.A. County Sheriff’s Department has more than 10,000 officers and 8,000 civilian staff members. It has suffered at least 18 coronavirus outbreaks, accounting for 334 cases, according to aninvestigative report in the Los Angeles Times last month.The defiance of Sheriff Villanueva — a politically divisive figure — underlines the difficulty of trying to lift lagging vaccination rates among law enforcement officers across the country. In many cities, officials are worried about losing officers. The New York Police Department, the nation’s largest, said that 67 percent of its staff have had at least one dose. That’s despite a city mandate that went into effect last month that requires city workers to get vaccinated or submit to weekly testing. “I would be supportive of a vaccine mandate,” Dermot F. Shea, New York’s police commissioner, said on Thursday during a news conference with Mayor Bill DeBlasio.Other cities’ forces have far lower vaccination rates. Memphis andLouisville recently reported that fewer than half of its officers have been vaccinated.The Fraternal Order of Police, a national union that represents 356,000 officers, estimates that 724 officers have died from Covid-19 since the pandemic began.In Los Angeles, Hilda Solis, the chair of the county’s board of supervisors, signed an executive order in August directing all county employees to show proof of a coronavirus vaccination by Oct. 1. The order did not provide for a testing option as some other local governments have done.Sheriff Villanueva’s refusal to enforce that requirement is familiar. In July, when Los Angeles County became the first major county to revert to requiring masks for all people indoors in public spaces, he said that his officers would not be enforcing the mandate.“Forcing the vaccinated and those who already contracted Covid-19 to wear masks indoors is not backed by science,” Sheriff Villanuevawrote in a statement on his website, adding that his department “will not expend our limited resources and instead ask for voluntary compliance.”

New Hampshire GOP Lawmaker Claims COVID Vaccine Contains ‘Living Organism’ With Tentacles’ – A 79-year-old Republican New Hampshire state lawmaker has claimed the COVID vaccine contains "living organism with tentacles." It does not.Representative Ken Weyler, who has served in the state House for 30 years, recently sent his congressional colleagues a discredited, false report full of conspiracy theories, according to NHPR.The report said that COVID-19 deaths had been caused by plotters in Vatican City, Washington D.C. and London. It also claimed that COVID-19 vaccines include "living organism(s) with tentacles." Weyler has said he doesn't regard the federal government, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or infectious diseases expert Dr. Anthony Fauci as credible sources for accurate COVID-19 information.Weyler is unvaccinated. He has said he has no intention to get vaccinated because "I've had 25 years of flu shots. I believe I have antibodies."He is also chair of the House Finance Committee. In that role, he and other Republicansopposed his state's acceptance of $27 million in federal aid for boosting vaccination efforts. They said they didn't think the state needed the money. "They want everybody to get the shot. Why?" Weyler asked. "Are they getting paid off by Big Pharma? Is there something in the shot that's going to help them control us? There's lots of things I'm reading that make me very suspicious."

Anti-vaccine protesters tear down COVID-19 testing site in New York City -A group of people demonstrating against the coronavirus vaccine tore down a COVID-19 testing site in New York City during a protest Monday. Hundreds of demonstrators gathered to protest the coronavirus vaccine mandate for public school employees, according to a report from The Washington Post. According to a mandate issued by New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D), Monday marked the deadline for employees to receive at least one dose of the coronavirus vaccine or be forced to accept unpaid leave.Protesters marched in Brooklyn and Manhattan, chanting slogans through loud speakers such as "let us teach!" and "We the people will not comply," according to the Post. The protesters tore down a COVID-19 testing site and confronted a worker at the site, according to the paper. However, police said that there were no mass arrests on Tuesday. De Blasio (D) on Monday said 95 percent of employees have complied with the vaccine mandate. “Look, here’s my message to all of the mayors of America, here’s my message to all of the governors of America: Put these mandates in place. Put these incentives in place,” he said. “They work. Do it now. Save lives and ultimately save this country from a longer crisis that could hold us down for months or even years.”

Health workers get panic buttons as COVID deniers get violent -Hospitals in several states are ramping up security and even providing wearable panic buttons to staff amid a wave of violent attacks sparked by COVID-related misinformation, denialists, and conspiracy theorists.In a hospital in Branson, Missouri, as many as 400 staff members will have panic buttons added to their identification badges after assaults on staff members tripled amid the pandemic. Assaults rose from 40 in 2019 to 123 in 2020, the Associated Press reported. The numbers for 2021 have not been released. When pressed, the panic buttons will immediately alert hospital security and trigger a tracking system to locate the endangered worker.Jackie Gatz, vice president of safety and preparedness for the Missouri Hospital Association, told the AP that, in addition to panic buttons, hospitals are also adding extra security cameras and having security personnel wear body cameras. A hospital in Springfield, Missouri, added security dogs, as well as panic buttons. Gatz noted that staff are also receiving training on de-escalation and physical protection tactics, such as keeping a hospital bed between a nurse and an agitated person.In Idaho, health facilities are also beefing up security. COVID-related misinformation has spread like wildfire in the region, and patients have become belligerent."We've had reports of physical violence, verbal abuse, demands for alternative treatment that are not acceptable or approved. And those become very difficult conversations to have as the patient continues to decompensate," Brian Whitlock, president of the Idaho Hospital Association, told the AP.Kootenai Health, in northern Idaho, increased security after people got into disputes with staff over masking requirements and staged protests outside the hospital. "I mean, we had a protest outside the hospital against masks and vaccines a couple of weeks ago that the patients that were dying of COVID inside could see," Kootenai Health Chief of Staff Dr. Robert Scoggins said. "I think that was awful."Just two weeks ago, the Idaho health department activated "crisis standards of care" statewideamid a crushing wave of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.In Texas, health workers have also faced a spike in hostility and violence. In a press conference last month, the chief nursing executive for Methodist Healthcare System, Jane McCurley, said staff "have been cursed at, screamed at, threatened with bodily harm and even had knives pulled on them." McCurley spoke just days after a tense confrontation at a children's emergency department after a man refused to have his temperature screened before entering, according to The Texas Tribune. "It is escalating... It's just a handful at each facility who have been extremely abusive. But there is definitely an increasing number of occurrences every day."

Maryland man allegedly fatally shot his pharmacist brother for ‘killing people’ with the COVID vaccine, court records show - A Cumberland man allegedly killed his brother and sister-in-law in their Ellicott City home last week because his brother, a pharmacist, administered COVID-19 vaccines, according to charging documents filed Wednesday in a Howard County court. Jeffrey Burnham told his mother he had to confront his older brother, Brian Robinette, because he was poisoning people by administering the COVID-19 vaccine, telling his mother, “Brian knows something,” according to the new charging documents filed against Burnham. Burnham is being held without bond in Allegany County, where he is charged with stabbing Rebecca Reynolds, 83, to death inside her Cumberland home on Sept. 29. Police said he took her car and fled to Ellicott City, where a day later he killed Robinette, 58, and his wife Kelly Sue Robinette, 57. He faces first and second-degree murder charges in the couples’ deaths. Burnham, 46, was captured last week in West Virginia following an 18-hour search.

How America Screwed Up the Great School Reopening - Jay O’Neal, an eighth-grade social studies teacher in West Virginia, is an unusually jovial man, someone who punctuates every conversation with hearty laughter. But when he talks about the school year, his tone turns somber. “So far, this year has been worse than last year, which I never thought was going to be possible,” he told me. O’Neal has been teaching in person for the better part of the past year, and he believes pandemic-era schooling has reached a new low.In the midst of the fastest-accelerating surge yet, millions of students in the United States went back to school with few precautions or none at all. The result was painfully predictable. Nearly one million—925,000—kids tested positive for Covid-19 in a single four-week stretch, according to data published last week. A month into their school year, there have been as many Covid cases among Texas students as in all of last year. Most Covid outbreaks in Georgia are now in schools, public health officials say. Yet Florida has a new rule: If a student is exposed to Covid-19, parents decide whether they quarantine.While severe health effects for kids who contract Covid-19 remain rare, every case is an opportunity for a rare outcome—and the more contagious delta variant offers many more opportunities. Schools scrambling to respond to outbreaks have had to improvise sometimes chaotic solutions. And the unchecked transmission is already dramatically affecting kids’ education this year. Covid-19 has also created a “dire” shortage of teachers and school staff in the U.S.“The thing that is frustrating me and so many teachers this year,” O’Neal said, “is why are we not taking the mitigation strategies that we at least took last year?” His school has a mask mandate, but that’s about it. There’s no screening testing, no distancing, no vaccination requirements, no ventilation improvements. Last year, at least, the school offered virtual instruction, so classes were about half their normal size, but that’s no longer an option. “We’re basically pretending like everything is normal,” he said—yet in fact, this may be the worst part of the pandemic for kids.Since O’Neal’s school started two months ago, more than 50 students have already tested positive, with dozens of others quarantining after close contact; there are only about 480 kids in the school. O’Neal himself just came back last week after he contracted the virus, despite being fully vaccinated and wearing a mask religiously. Some of his students have had to quarantine multiple times, and he’s only seen them for two or three out of the past eight weeks. “You’re constantly trying to catch people up,” he said. Two out of eight teachers for eighth-grade classes are currently quarantining or sick with Covid-19, but there are no substitutes, so they’ve had to scramble to move students into different classrooms—creating further disruptions and infection risks.

10-year-old died of COVID after teacher made her ‘class nurse’: parents --A 10-year-old girl in Virginia has died of COVID-19 complications after she was potentially exposed to the virus while fulfilling her duties in school as the “class nurse,” her family claimed.Teresa Sperry, a fifth-grader at Hillpoint Elementary School, had been tasked by her teacher with escorting her sick classmates to the school nurse before she came down with a headache and nagging cough herself, CNN reported.“One of the things she told us before she got sick, was that her job was to be the ‘class nurse’ to take the sick kids from the class to the nurse’s office,” her father, Jeff Sperry, told the outlet.“And you have to understand my daughter, this is who she is, helping people is my daughter, it’s not something that she wouldn’t have wanted to do.” But her parents believe that it was her caring nature that ultimately led to her death.She was tested for strep throat and COVID-19, but was sent home to wait for the results, CNN reported.“Her lungs were perfect, beautiful. They didn’t seem concerned,” her mother, Nicole Sperry, told the outlet.But within a day, she stopped breathing and was brought to a local hospital before being transferred to Children’s Hospital of The King’s Daughters, where she died. After her death, her family was notified that she had tested positive for the virus.

‘My 12-year-old has to get vaccinated but a teacher doesn’t’? Fury as Gov. Newsom mandates shots for ALL California students from 7th to 12th grade – but exempts staff -Governor Gavin Newsom has been condemned for his 'wrong and cowardly' mandate which demands all California students from 7th to 12th grade get the COVID-19 vaccine but does not require their teachers to get the shot.Social media erupted in outrage Friday night as people pointed out the alarming difference between the rules for children and staff, with many accusing the governor of being influenced by the powerful teachers' unions.'Kids must get vaccine, but teacher don't have to. The lesson? Kids need a better union,' one person tweeted. Newsom announced Friday that all elementary through high school students will be required to get the shot once the vaccine is given final approval from the US government for different age groups.'We want to end this pandemic. We are all exhausted by it,' he said.The government has fully approved the COVID-19 vaccine for those 16 and over but only granted an emergency authorization for anyone 12 to 15. It is expected to grant full approval to the younger age group during the winter. Once federal regulators fully approve it for that group, the state will require students in seventh through 12th grades to get vaccinated in both public and private schools. Newsom said he expects that requirement to be in place by July 1.California will require the COVID-19 vaccine for students in kindergarten through sixth grades after it gets final federal approval for children 5 to 11. This makes California the first state to mandate COVID-19 vaccines for students and comes after it was first in the nation to roll out a vaccine mandate for teachers back on August 12.However, school staff currently have the freedom to either show proof of full vaccination or be tested at least once a week for the virus.Newsom's new mandate for students doesn't give children the option to undergo weekly testing instead of getting the vaccine. Several people took to social media to question why students and not teachers are being forced to be vaccinated and blasting the new rules as being caused by 'political union influence.'

Half of Ohio’s K-12 schools have reported COVID-19 cases this school year – Exactly half of Ohio’s K-12 schools, from the smallest private preschools to the largest public school districts, have reported a case of COVID-19 less than two months into the school year.New data from the Ohio Department of Health on Thursday shows 1,384 of the 2,767 K-12 schools it tracks (50%) have reported at least one coronavirus case among students and staff since opening in August or September.Schools reported 7,405 new cases to ODH for the week ending this past Sunday, bringing the school year total to 53,213. This week’s cases are slightly down from last week’s 7,564, which were down from 9,827 and 10,682 the two weeks before. At this point last academic year, schools had reported just 1,870 cases among 543 schools (about 20%); numbers so low because of stricter mitigation protocols and more remote learning. It took until early December for half of schools last year to report a case. The median number of cases among schools with at least one infection is 13 cases, while the median number for school districts is 48 cases. 45,281 (85%) of Ohio’s school cases are students and 7,932 (15%) are staff members, which include teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff. Last school year, students were roughly 2 in 3 cases, and staff were 1 in 3. Cincinnati Public Schools, a district of more than 34,000 students, leads the state in cases with 1,490, ahead of Columbus City Schools with 689 and South-Western City Schools with 586. Five Franklin County districts are in the top 10. 99.9% percent of Ohio’s public school students are in school five days a week, according to datatracked by the Ohio Department of Education. Only one school district is fully remote, and none are in a hybrid model.Just over 56% of students are in a district that requires masks for all students, and 13% learn where masks are required for some students. That leaves just over 3 in 10 Ohio public school students who go to school with masks optional.

POLITICO-Harvard poll: Most Americans support vaccine mandates for schoolkids - A majority of Americans now support requiring public school students aged 12 or older to be vaccinated against Covid-19 before they can attend classes in person, according to a POLITICO-Harvard survey that shows lingering divisions along partisan, racial and ethnic lines. Nearly three in four Democrats favor a vaccine mandate for the students while 59 percent of Republicans are opposed. Just over half of self-described independents also are against the mandates. That foretells sharp divisions across the country this fall and winter as local school districts weigh Covid-19 requirements. Overall support for a student vaccine mandate has ticked up slightly over the last few months as the Delta variant ignited a new wave of cases. “It’s an established principle that schools are able to mandate childhood vaccines. The question is whether Covid is different,” said Robert Blendon, a professor of health policy and political analysis at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who designed the poll. “Since decisions are being made geographically, Republican counties and states will be very reluctant to add Covid-19 to what children have to receive.” The findings come as pediatric cases of Covid-19 are surging across the country and local leaders debate whether to mandate shots for students. California this month said that Covid-19 vaccines will be added to the state’s list of immunizations required for school attendance, and some local districts and the state of Hawaii have started requiring teen athletes, band members and students in after-school programs to get shots. Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers in many parts of the country have proactively outlawed Covid-19 vaccine mandates for schoolchildren, and some GOP lawmakers in Congress on Thursday asked Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to uphold state authority to ban vaccine mandates in K-12 schools and colleges. All 50 states since the early 1980s have had vaccination requirements for students entering school that cover shots for conditions like measles, mumps and rubella. Forty-four states and the District of Columbia grant exemptions on religious grounds, and 15 allow exemptions for children whose parents object on moral or other grounds, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

NYC vaccine mandate for teachers overcomes latest legal challenge -- The New York City COVID-19 vaccine mandate for teachers overcame its latest legal challenge on Tuesday after its implementation on Monday. A request by multiple teachers and other employees to temporarily block the teacher vaccine mandate was denied by U.S. District Judge Mary Kay Vyskocil who said she couldn’t risk children’s lives to block the mandate, The Associated Press reported. She can not “ignore the harm that could take place if the schoolchildren were exposed to the risk of COVID.” “If the harm happens, it’s a harm that cannot be undone,” she added. Vyskocil said that along with the harm it could cause children, the lawsuit did not hold up the irreparable harm, likelihood of success or public interest requirements. The mandate for teachers to have at least one shot of the vaccine was put into place Monday, with New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) saying 95 percent of school employees complied with the mandates. “Look, here’s my message to all of the mayors of America, here’s my message to all of the governors of America: Put these mandates in place. Put these incentives in place,” he said. “They work. Do it now. Save lives and ultimately save this country from a longer crisis that could hold us down for months or even years.” Protesters went out Monday to protest the mandate, tearing down a COVID-19 testing site during the demonstration.

Newsom signs bill requiring California public schools to provide menstrual products - Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Friday signed a bill requiring California public schools to provide free menstrual products. The bill says all public high schools and colleges have to provide menstrual products to students in their restrooms starting in the 2022 school year, KTLA 5 reported. The bill expands on a law put into place in 2017 that required free menstrual products be provided in low-income schools. “Our biology doesn’t always send an advanced warning when we’re about to start menstruating, which often means we need to stop whatever we’re doing and deal with a period,” Democratic Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia, who sponsored the bill, said, according to the local outlet. “Just as toilet paper and paper towels are provided in virtually every public bathroom, so should menstrual products,” she added. The move follows multiple other states that have put laws into place to have schools give out free menstrual products. Washington state made the move to provide free menstrual products in school bathrooms in May. “This bill will help students maintain a safe and healthy standard of personal hygiene while at school, which is particularly important for students who struggle to afford the cost of paying for these products,” Gov. Jay Inslee (D) said at the time. A growing movement has been happening in the U.S. for affordable or free menstrual products.

California becomes first state to mandate high school ethnic studies course - California is now the first state to mandate that students take an ethnic studies course to graduate high school. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Friday signed into law Assembly Bill 101, which requires local education agencies and charter schools that serve students in grades nine through 12 to offer a one-semester ethnic studies class beginning in the 2025-2026 school year, the governor’s office said in a statement. The legislation also requires students to complete such a course beginning with the graduating class of 2029-2030. In a letter announcing the signing, Newsom said ethnic studies courses "enable students to learn their own stories, and those of their classmates" and "boost student achievement over the long run — especially among students of color." “America is shaped by our shared history, much of it painful and etched with woeful injustice,” he wrote. “Students deserve to see themselves in their studies, and they must understand our nation's full history if we expect them to one day build a more just society.” Friday’s signing comes after five years of scrutiny surrounding the bill. Newsom rejected a nearly identical version last year because he wanted the curriculum guide for ethnic studies to be more inclusive, according to the Los Angeles Times. The California Board of Education adopted a model curriculum for ethnic studies in March that focuses on African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans and Indigenous peoples, according to The Associated Press. The curriculum also reportedly includes lesson plans on Jewish Americans, Arab Americans, Sikh Americans and Armenian Americans. The California law comes amid a push by conservatives to limit the teaching of certain topics surrounding race, notably critical race theory. The theory, which was developed decades ago, examines the role that institutional racism played in the nation’s founding. Several states have either considered passing or passed legislation banning it.

State AG seeks meeting with TikTok CEO over 'Slap a Teacher' challenge -- Connecticut Attorney General William Tong (D) on Monday urged TikTok leadership to meet with teachers and parents in the state — and himself — to address the “Slap a Teacher” challenge on the app. "TikTok fails to control the spread of dangerous content. In CT, vandalism closed schools and the new “Slap a Teacher” challenge may put educators at risk. I am urging TikTok to come to CT to meet with educators and parents and commit to reforms that stop this reckless content," Tong tweeted. The challenge involves a student calmly approaching a teacher and slapping them. It was scheduled to begin in October, though it does not seem to have caught on yet to a significant extent.In South Carolina's Lancaster County, however, parents were warned about the challenge on Monday after an elementary school student appeared to have followed through with the dare,WYFF reported.“Unfortunately, the challenge that has been put out for this month is to slap or hit a staff member from behind,” the district told parents. "Sadly, we actually had an elementary student assault a teacher by striking her in the back of the head.”In a letter addressed to TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, Tong requested a meeting with him to discuss "the harmful impact TikTok is having on the mental and physical safety of young people in Connecticut." He pointed the September “Devious Licks” TikTok challenge in which students vandalized and stole public property, with many teens taking this dare to their schools.

A comment on the viral TikTok “Devious Licks” trend - “Devious Licks,” a recent trend on the social media platform TikTok, involves students in the US and elsewhere posting videos of either stolen school property or vandalized school bathrooms, or both. A “lick” in this context is another term for something stolen. The phenomenon, a form of backward and anti-social protest, no doubt reflects the anger and confusion of a portion of young people under conditions of a deadly pandemic and general political instability and crisis. The “Devious Licks” trend began in September as videos of students having stolen personal protective equipment ( PPE) from school—such as masks, hand sanitizer and tissues—were posted on social media. One student, for example, posted a video of himself unzipping his backpack and pulling out a hand sanitizer dispenser with the caption, “only a month into school and got this absolute devious lick.” In two days, the video was viewed over seven million times. Hundreds of copycat TikTok videos were posted in response, many trying to outdo the previous ones. Videos of students having stolen a microscope, computer or school street signage each reached two to three million views in under 24 hours. In addition, there have been multiple videos of bathrooms vandalized, with stall doors, mirrors, soap dispensers, sinks, toilets or urinals removed, broken or thrown across the room. The videos have generated an uproar in the media, cries for more severe punishment for those involved and the demand by politicians and school district officials that TikTok be “held accountable” and greater censorship imposed on the platform. School districts in nearly all 50 US states, plus locations in Canada and the UK, have reported being “hit” by the trend. Districts have responded by suspending and expelling students and imposing heightened security measures, including closing public restrooms for days at a time, tracking and limiting student restroom breaks and installing more cameras on campuses, especially near bathroom entrances. In addition, authorities have fined and charged numerous students, with arrests coming in various parts of the country. Students have also posted videos bringing to light the various security measures and responses by school officials. Videos on TikTok record angry messages from school administrators over loudspeakers threatening criminal charges or offering $100-$500 cash rewards to any student who turns informant. One student posted a video of a campus police officer entering a classroom to perform a random bag search to find any stolen items. The “Devious Licks” videos and the theft of PPE and other materials are not actions aimed at mobilizing students against the present conditions. On the contrary, they reflect to a considerable extent the pessimism and disorientation of those carrying out the various thefts. The actions may also express skepticism in regard to measures taken to mitigate the pandemic by those who have been influenced by the right-wing media campaign against lockdowns and masking, or by sentiments articulated by their parents. There isn’t a hint in the “Devious Licks” trend of any political ideology. However, is there the possibility of anarchistic moods developing among the youth in the US? Absolutely, given the repulsive state of political life, dominated by two parties of big business, profits, greed and war. The official atmosphere communicates itself to young people, generating alienation, bitterness, anger and even individualistic, semi-terroristic moods.

Four injured in Arlington, Texas high school shooting --At least four people were hurt Wednesday morning during a shooting at Timberview High School in Arlington, Texas. According to police, an 18-year-old student opened fire during a fight at the Dallas-area high school before fleeing and turning himself in to custody hours later. Arlington police said there was a fight between students on the second floor of the school when one of the students pulled out a firearm. Police identified the suspected student as Timothy George Simpkins. Officials say they have seen video of the fight, but not the shooting, and reassured parents that the shooting was “not a random act of violence” or someone attacking the school. Immediately after the shooting, armed police stormed the school of about 1,900 students, and initiated a manhunt across North Texas. As news of the incident spread, worried parents gathered at the Mansfield Independent School District Center for the Performing Arts, five miles from the high school, to be reunited with their children, who were driven over in buses. Police said Simpkins later arrived at the Arlington Police Department with an attorney, and was handcuffed in the parking lot. At a press conference Wednesday afternoon, Arlington Assistant Police Chief Kevin Kolbye said Simpkins is expected to be charged with three counts of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. Police also said that a .45-caliber handgun was recovered in the streets of Grand Prairie, two miles from the school. As of the time of this writing, police have not confirmed if the gun was involved in the shooting at Timberview, but say it is being sent in for ballistics testing. Kolbye reported a total of four people were hurt, including two students and two adults. A teenage female suffered minor injuries and was treated at the scene. A pregnant woman was also treated at the scene, and police reported a 25-year-old male employee at the school is in good condition. A 15-year-old male student is in critical condition and has been in surgery at Medical City Arlington. Wednesday’s shooting occurred just days after a shooting at a Houston charter school. A former student of a Houston public charter school shot and wounded the campus principal Friday before quickly surrendering to police. Texas’ deadliest shooting happened in 2018, when a 17-year-old student armed with a shotgun and a pistol opened fire at Santa Fe High School near Houston, killing 10 people, most of whom were students.

Department of Education: Florida missed deadline for $2.3B in federal aid After failing to submit a plan to the U.S. Department of Education (DOE) for how Florida would intend to use federal funding for its schools, the state will forgo $2.3 billion in COVID-19 relief money. On Monday, the DOE sent a letter informing Florida Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran that he had missed the deadline to submit a plan and obtain American Rescue Plan Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ARP ESSER) money. "The Department released the first two-thirds of each State’s allocation in March and required each State to submit its plan for spending its ARP ESSER funds by June. FDOE did not meet this deadline, nor did it meet the July and August submission timelines that were anticipated following conversations with your staff," Acting Assistant Secretary of the Office of Elementary and Secondary Education Ian Rosenblum said in the letter, according to The Washington Post. Rosenblum added that he had "repeatedly" been contacted by "parents, teachers, and superintendents from school districts in Florida" about the funding. Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) office responded to the letter saying that Florida school districts still have money from the first round of aid to use. "If you are willing to identify any of the specific school districts that have complained, we would be happy to provide you the specifics for those districts. We will continue to ensure their needs are met," DeSantis’s office said, per the Post. DeSantis's press secretary Christina Pushaw referred The Hill to the Florida Department of Education for comment on this decision. DeSantis has garnered attention with other COVID-19-related decisions that impact Florida schools such as banning mask mandates and making quarantining optional for children exposed to someone with the coronavirus.

Conflict Of Interest? AG Garland's Family Getting Rich Selling Critical Race Theory Materials To Schools - When it comes to conflicts of interest, Attorney General Merrick Garland appears to have a huge one.Merrick's daughter, Rebecca Garland, is married to the co-founder of an education resource company that pushes critical race theory - which angry parents across the country are protesting. Taking matters into his own hands, AG Garland tapped the FBI on Monday to huddle with local leaders to address a "disturbing spike in harassment, intimidation, and threats of violence" against teachers and school board members.As the Conservative Treehouse writes:Well, well, well… This is interesting. U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland recently instructed the FBI to begin investigating parents who confront school board administrators over Critical Race Theory indoctrination material. The U.S. Department of Justice issued a memorandum to the FBI instructing them to initiate investigations of any parent attending a local school board meeting who might be viewed as confrontational, intimidating or harassing.Attorney General Merrick Garland’s daughter is Rebecca Garland. In 2018 Rebecca Garland married Xan Tanner [LINK]. Mr. Xan Tanner is the current co-founder of a controversial education service company called Panorama Education. [LINKand LINK] Panorama Education is the “social learning” resource material provider to school districts and teachers that teach Critical Race Theory.

Elite Education Group International Stock Turns Volatile After The News - Elite Education Group International Limited (NASDAQ:EEIQ) has become a highly popular educations solutions provider to university students in China who want to pursue programs in the United States.Yesterday, the Elite Education stock came into focus after the company made an announcement with regards to an operations update for the latter half year period for the fiscal year that had ended on September 30, 2021. The Elite Education stock ended the day with gains of as much as 13.50% after the announcement had been made. Jianbo Zhang, the Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the company provided the key updates.He stated that Elite Education managed to record strong recruitment as well as enrolment numbers for the English Language Program for the Spring 2022 semester at the Miami University of Ohio campuses. The numbers were actually higher than the ones that had been recorded in the prior year period. Zhand went on to state that it was another indication that things were on the verge of going back to normal after the difficulties that had been faced by Elite Education during the coronavirus pandemic. Investors could consider adding the Elite Education stock on to their watch lists at this point.

Lowering this inequitable hurdle to affording college is a no-brainer --While colleges and universities contemplate how they will evolve as a consequence of the pandemic, we believe one change certainly needs to happen before students even enroll. It’s time to end the mysterious “verification” requirement to receive financial aid that places an undue and unnecessary burden on college applicants most at risk. Even if they’ve filled out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), most students and families probably haven’t heard of verification. The percentage of financial aid applicants required to take the arduous additional step to “verify” the accuracy of their FAFSA information by providing additional personal and financial records has hovered around 20 percent since 2018 (but has been as high as 38 percent). At the end of August, the Biden administration took a step in the wrong direction,saying the narrower verification standards put in place during the pandemic will be reversed next year. The burden isn’t spread equally. The verification rate is more than double — 44 percent compared to 18 percent for all FAFSA applicants last year — for the low-income applicants eligible for federal Pell Grants, theNational College Attainment Network (NCAN) estimated. Family income for most Pell recipients is $20,000 or less. By comparison, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) audits fewer than 1 percent of taxpayers at those income levels. A Washington Post investigationfound that students from predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods have been audited through verification disproportionately for more than a decade (students from majority Black neighborhoods face verification at a rate almost twice that in majority white neighborhoods, for example.) Even the tool created to funnel IRS data to the Education Department helps some families respond, but not others, such as those with the lowest incomes who aren’t required to file tax returns, those with missing returns in some years, and those who are undocumented. We understand and support the goal of verification — to ensure that too-limited financial aid dollars end up helping the right students. Verification saved taxpayers more than $400 million annually in misdirected Pell Grant funds. While that’s a lot, it’s also only about 1.5 percent of annual Pell Grants awarded. That sliver of savings, however, doesn’t reflect a widespread problem. NCAN found that Pell Grants either stayed the same or went up for most applicants whose FAFSA was audited. And any fair assessment of the costs and benefits also must consider the enormous opportunity cost overall to the country and the economy, including lost contributions to tax revenues, when students faced with another confusing, time-consuming step to get financial aid give up on their college dream. The Education Department estimates verification “melt” — or the failure to provide information to satisfy the audit — resulted in about32,000 students not getting federally subsidized aid in 2019-20. Given data showing financial aid applications already down amid the pandemic, particularly among low-income students, we can’t afford another hole in an already leaky pipeline to affordable higher education.

Tylenol Could Be Risky for Pregnant Women – A New Review of 25 Years of Research Finds Acetaminophen May Contribute to ADHD and Other Developmental Disorders in Children - A mounting body of evidence shows that the use of acetaminophen – widely known by its brand name Tylenol – during pregnancy may pose risks to the fetus and to early childhood development. That was the conclusion of a new review study on which I was a lead author. Acetaminophen, which has the chemical name paracetamol, is a go-to over-the-counter medication that is widely recommended by doctors to relieve pain and reduce fever.Our study, based on an assessment of 25 years of research in the areas of human epidemiology, animal and in-vitro studies, concludes that prenatal acetaminophen exposure may increase the risks of reproductive organs developing improperly. We identified a heightened risk ofneurodevelopmental disorders, primarily attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and related behaviors, but also autism spectrum disorder, as well as language delays and decreased IQ.In our consensus statement – a broad agreement by our multidisciplinary international panel of experts – published in Nature Reviews Endocrinology in September 2021, 91 clinicians and researchers are calling for caution and additional research. Acetaminophen is an active ingredient in over 600 prescription and over-the-counter medications. It is used by more than 50% of pregnant women worldwide and at least 65% of pregnant women in the U.S. Research suggests that acetaminophen is an endocrine disruptor and may interfere with the hormones essential for healthy neurological and reproductive development.Current guidance recommends acetaminophen as the pain reliever of choice during pregnancy, asother pain relievers such as ibuprofen and aspirin are not considered safe after midpregnancy.Rates of reproductive disorders and neurodevelopmental disorders, such as ADHD and autism spectrum disorder, have been increasing over the last 40 years.Over the same time period, the use of acetaminophen during pregnancy has gone up. We conclude that because acetaminophen is so commonly taken during pregnancy, if its use is responsible for even a small increase in individual risk, it could contribute substantially to these disorders in the overall population. The current near-ubiquitous use of acetaminophen during pregnancy is due in part to the widespread perception – even among doctors – that it has limited side effects and negligible risk. But a growing body of research suggests that the indiscriminate use of acetaminophen during pregnancy – especially for conditions such as chronic pain, low back pain and headaches – may be unwarranted and unsafe.

Largest trial of antibiotic amoxicillin for treating chest infections in children finds little effect - The largest randomised placebo-controlled trial of the antibiotic amoxicillin for treating chest infections in children - one of the most common acute illnesses treated in primary care in developed countries, has found it is little more effective at relieving symptoms than the use of no medication. The study, published in The Lancet and funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), was led by researchers from the University of Southampton and supported by centres at the Universities of Bristol, Oxford and Cardiff.Although viruses are believed to cause many of these infections in children, whether or not antibiotics are beneficial in treatment of chest infections in children is still debated. While research so far in adults has shown that antibiotics are not effective for uncomplicated chest infections until now, there has not been the same level of research in children.Researchers sought to test whether amoxicillin reduces the duration of moderately bad symptoms in children presenting with uncomplicated (non-pneumonic) lower respiratory tract chest infections in primary care. The trial recruited 432 children aged six months to twelve years-old with acute uncomplicated chest infections from primary care practices in England and Wales who were then randomly assigned to receive either amoxicillin or a placebo three times a day for seven days. Doctors or nurse-prescribers assessed symptoms at the start of the study and parents, with help from their children where possible, completed a daily symptom diary.Only a small, non-significant, difference in the duration of symptoms were reported between the two groups: children given the placebo had symptoms which were rated moderately bad or worse for around 6 days on average after seeing the doctor, and those given antibiotics got better only 13 per cent quicker.Furthermore, this was true even for the groups of children where the doctor heard sounds in the chest, the child had a fever, where the doctor rated the child as more unwell, the child coughed up phlegm or had a rattly chest, or the child was short of breath.

FDA authorizes new rapid COVID-19 test, says capacity will double --The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Monday authorized a new rapid, at-home COVID-19 test, in a move it said is expected to double the availability of such tests in the coming weeks. The FDA said it has authorized a coronavirus test from the company ACON Laboratories. It is not the first authorization of such a test, which can deliver results in as little as 15 minutes, but, amid supply shortages, the move could be key in boosting their availability. Jeff Shuren, a top FDA official, said the move "is expected to double rapid at-home testing capacity in the U.S. over the next several weeks." He said the company plans to produce more than 100 million tests per month by the end of the year and 200 million per month by February. The Biden administration has come under pressure to do more to boost rapid, at-home testing capacity, an area where experts have been pushing for more action for months. Rapid tests can, for example, help keep schools open safely. Several senators pressed Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra about the need to improve the availability of rapid tests at a hearing last week. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) noted that in Germany, rapid tests are available at grocery stores for less than $1, and in the United Kingdom, everyone in the country has access to 14 free rapid tests, compared to about $15 in the U.S. "Why are tests in the United States so much more expensive than in countries like Germany or the U.K. or India?" he asked.

Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine are highly effective against COVID-19 hospitalizations for at least six months - Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) are 90% effective against COVID-19 hospitalizations for all variants, including delta, for at least six months, confirms a new study from Kaiser Permanente and Pfizer published in The Lancet Effectiveness against all SARS-COV-2 infections declined over the study period, falling from 88% within one month after receiving two vaccine doses to 47% after six months. However, effectiveness against hospitalizations remained at 90% overall and for all variants. These findings are consistent with preliminary reports from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [1] and the Israel Ministry of Health [2] that found reductions of BNT162b2 against infection after approximately six months. The researchers say this study underscores the importance of improving COVID-19 vaccination rates worldwide and monitoring vaccine effectiveness to determine which populations should be prioritized to receive booster shots. “Our study confirms that vaccines are a critical tool for controlling the pandemic and remain highly effective in preventing severe disease and hospitalization, including from the delta and other variants of concern. Protection against infection does decline in the months following a second dose. While this study provides evidence that immunity wanes for all age groups that received the vaccine, the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has called for additional research to determine if booster shots should be made available to all age groups eligible for this vaccine. In line with the recent FDA [3] and CDC recommendations [4], considerations for booster shots should take global COVID-19 vaccine supply into account as people in many countries around the world have not yet received a primary vaccination series,”

Waning Immune Humoral Response to BNT162b2 Covid-19 Vaccine over 6 Months | NEJM - We conducted a 6-month longitudinal prospective study involving vaccinated health care workers who were tested monthly for the presence of anti-spike IgG and neutralizing antibodies. Linear mixed models were used to assess the dynamics of antibody levels and to determine predictors of antibody levels at 6 months.The study included 4868 participants, with 3808 being included in the linear mixed-model analyses. The level of IgG antibodies decreased at a consistent rate, whereas the neutralizing antibody level decreased rapidly for the first 3 months with a relatively slow decrease thereafter. Although IgG antibody levels were highly correlated with neutralizing antibody titers (Spearman’s rank correlation between 0.68 and 0.75), the regression relationship between the IgG and neutralizing antibody levels depended on the time since receipt of the second vaccine dose. Six months after receipt of the second dose, neutralizing antibody titers were substantially lower among men than among women (ratio of means, 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 0.75), lower among persons 65 years of age or older than among those 18 to less than 45 years of age (ratio of means, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.70), and lower among participants with immunosuppression than among those without immunosuppression (ratio of means, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Six months after receipt of the second dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine, humoral response was substantially decreased, especially among men, among persons 65 years of age or older, and among persons with immunosuppression.

Fourth person dies from rare blood-clotting syndrome after receiving J&J vaccine - A county in Washington on Tuesday confirmed that a woman died from blood-clotting complications after receiving Johnson & Johnson's single-dose COVID-19 vaccine. She is believed to be the fourth person to have died from such a complication.King County stated that a female resident in her late 30s had died from the "very rare" complication. The unnamed resident received her J&J shot Aug. 26."Her cause of death was determined to be thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS), a condition that has been identified as a rare but potentially serious adverse event in people who received the J&J vaccine," the county said in a statement.When reached for comment The Hill, Johnson & Johnson said in a statement:"The safety and well-being of every individual who receives a Johnson & Johnson product remains our top priority. Any adverse event report about individuals receiving Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot COVID-19 vaccine, as well as our own assessment of the report, is shared with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), European Medicines Agency, the World Health Organization (WHO) and other appropriate health authorities where our vaccine is authorized."The company added that it is in support of raising awareness of the signs of the rare side effect in order to "ensure they can be quickly identified and effectively treated.Earlier this year, administration of the J&J vaccine was briefly pausedwhile U.S. health officials reviewed the rare blood clotting complication. Such complications relating to the J&J vaccine appear to be more common in women than in men.Officials ultimately determined that the benefits offered by the J&J shot outweigh the risks and states resumed administering the vaccine in April.King County noted that women aged 18-49 are at a higher risk for complications than women aged over 50. However, regardless of age, the county added that the benefits still outweighed the risks of not getting inoculated.

Prescribed blood thinners can help reduce hospitalizations related to COVID-19 --The NIH has reported that many individuals with COVID-19 develop abnormal blood clots from high inflammation, which can lead to serious health complications and mortality. To find ways to decrease clotting related to COVID-19, researchers from the University of Minnesota and Basel University in Switzerland looked at reducing hospitalizations by using prescribed blood thinners.“We know that COVID-19 causes blood clots that can kill patients,” said lead author Sameh Hozayen, MD, MSC, an assistant professor of medicine at the U of M Medical School. “But, do blood thinners save lives in COVID-19? Blood thinners are medications prescribed to prevent blood clots in patients with a prior blood clot in their lungs or legs. They also prevent blood clots in the brain secondary to abnormal heart rhythms, like atrial fibrillation. Blood thinners are the standard of treatment in these diseases, which is why we looked at data to see if it impacted hospitalizations related to COVID-19.” “We already know that overwhelmed hospitals have a higher risk for death among their patients, so reducing hospitalization may have a positive impact during a COVID-19 surge,” Hozayen said. Published in Lancet’s Open Access EClinical Medicine, the study found that:

patients on blood thinners before having COVID-19 were admitted less often to the hospital, despite being older and having more chronic medical conditions than their peers;
blood thinners — regardless of if they are being used before being infected with COVID-19 or started when admitted to the hospital for treatment of COVID-19 — reduce deaths by almost half; and,
hospitalized COVID-19 patients benefit from blood thinners regardless of the type or dose of the medication used.

“Unfortunately, about half of patients who are being prescribed blood thinners for blood clots in their legs, lungs, abnormal heart rhythms or other reasons, do not take them. By increasing adherence for people already prescribed blood thinners, we can potentially reduce the bad effects of COVID-19,” Hozayen said. “At M Health Fairview and most centers around the world now, there are protocols for starting blood thinners when patients are first admitted to the hospital for COVID-19 — as it is a proven vital treatment option. Outside of COVID-19, the use of blood thinners is proven to be lifesaving for those with blood coagulations conditions.”

Convalescent plasma futile as treatment for critically ill COVID-19 patients - In the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the medical community turned to a century-old treatment: Take blood from recovered patients and give it to the sick. The hypothesis was that components in the so-called “convalescent plasma” that fought off the disease once could do it again, something that has worked in other diseases, such as Ebola.Today, an international research team, which included University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine physician-scientists and UPMC patients, effectively put an end to that practice with a clinical trial that concluded convalescent plasma is “futile” as a COVID-19 treatment for most critically ill patients. The results are published inJAMA concurrent with presentation at theEuropean Society of Intensive Care Medicine’s annual meeting.“There were biologically plausible reasons to turn to convalescent plasma early in the pandemic when hundreds of thousands of people were getting sick and treatments had yet to be discovered,” said co-lead author Bryan McVerry, M.D., associate professor ofpulmonary, allergy and critical care medicine at Pitt and a UPMC intensivist. “Unfortunately, it was either being administered outside of clinical trials or in trials that weren’t focused on critically ill patients, slowing our ability to see if it actually worked. Finally, with these results, we can put an end to using convalescent plasma for our sickest COVID-19 patients and focus on treatments that we know work, as well as developing and testing better ones.”The findings are the latest from REMAP-CAP (Randomised, Embedded, Multifactorial, Adaptive Platform Trial for Community-Acquired Pneumonia), which has enrolled thousands of patients in hundreds of hospitals around the world to quickly determine what COVID-19 treatments work best in which patients. To date, more than 400 UPMC patients have been enrolled. Among its discoveries, REMAP-CAP has shown thatinexpensive steroids are effective in helping critically ill patients, while blood thinners help the moderately ill.

Heart Damage Plagues Covid Survivors a Year After Infection, Study Shows- The cardiovascular complications of acute COVID-19 are well described; however, a comprehensive characterization of the post-acute cardiovascular manifestations of COVID-19 at one year has not been undertaken. Here we use the US Department of Veterans Affairs national healthcare databases to build a cohort of 151,195 people with COVID-19, 3,670,087 contemporary and 3,656,337 historical controls to estimate risks and 1-year burdens of a set of pre-specified incident cardiovascular outcomes. We show that beyond the first 30 days of infection, people with COVID-19 are at increased risk of incident cardiovascular disease spanning several categories including cerebrovascular disorders, dysrhythmias, ischemic and non-ischemic heart disease, pericarditis, myocarditis, heart failure, and thromboembolic disease. The risks and burdens were evident among those who were non-hospitalized during the acute phase of the infection and increased in a graded fashion according to care setting of the acute infection (non-hospitalized, hospitalized, and admitted to intensive care). Taken together, our results provide evidence that risk and 1-year burden of cardiovascular disease in survivors of acute COVID-19 are substantial. Care pathways of people who survived the acute episode of COVID-19 should include attention to cardiovascular health and disease.

COVID-19 survivors face increased risk of heart problems: study - People who battled COVID-19, including those who weren’t sick enough to be hospitalized, may face an increased risk of major heart problems one year after infection, according to a new report.Researchers at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System in Missouri found that COVID survivors who weren’t hospitalized had a 39 percent increased risk of developing heart failure in the first year compared to someone who never had the virus, Bloomberg reports.They also had a 119 percent increased risk of developing a potentially fatal blood clot and a 24 percent increased risk of having a stroke, the study found.The increased risks were even greater for those who were hospitalized with the virus, with a 482 percent chance of cardiac arrest, 270 percent for heart failure and an 855 percent chance of blood clots. Researchers at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System in Missouri found that COVID survivors had a 39 percent increased risk of developing heart…Almost one in seven patients who were admitted to an ICU with COVID were at an increased risk of suffering a major adverse cardiac event in the first year, the study showed.The study used data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs national health care database. The researchers compared data from 151,195 veterans who survived COVID to more than 3.6 million who did not contract the virus.“The aftereffects of COVID-19 are substantial,” said Ziyad Al-Aly, who led the research.“Governments and health systems must wake up to the reality that COVID will cast a tall shadow in the form of long COVID, and has devastating consequences. I am concerned that we are not taking this seriously enough.”Researchers and health experts are still studying the cause of heart damage in COVID survivors.

Incidence, co-occurrence, and evolution of long-COVID features: A 6-month retrospective cohort study of 273,618 survivors of COVID-19 - We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on linked electronic health records (EHRs) data from 81 million patients including 273,618 COVID-19 survivors. The incidence and co-occurrence within 6 months and in the 3 to 6 months after COVID-19 diagnosis were calculated for 9 core features of long-COVID (breathing difficulties/breathlessness, fatigue/malaise, chest/throat pain, headache, abdominal symptoms, myalgia, other pain, cognitive symptoms, and anxiety/depression). Their co-occurrence network was also analyzed. Comparison with a propensity score–matched cohort of patients diagnosed with influenza during the same time period was achieved using Kaplan–Meier analysis and the Cox proportional hazard model. The incidence of atopic dermatitis was used as a negative control. Among COVID-19 survivors (mean [SD] age: 46.3 [19.8], 55.6% female), 57.00% had one or more long-COVID feature recorded during the whole 6-month period (i.e., including the acute phase), and 36.55% between 3 and 6 months. The incidence of each feature was: abnormal breathing (18.71% in the 1- to 180-day period; 7.94% in the 90- to180-day period), fatigue/malaise (12.82%; 5.87%), chest/throat pain (12.60%; 5.71%), headache (8.67%; 4.63%), other pain (11.60%; 7.19%), abdominal symptoms (15.58%; 8.29%), myalgia (3.24%; 1.54%), cognitive symptoms (7.88%; 3.95%), and anxiety/depression (22.82%; 15.49%). All 9 features were more frequently reported after COVID-19 than after influenza (with an overall excess incidence of 16.60% and hazard ratios between 1.44 and 2.04, all p < 0.001), co-occurred more commonly, and formed a more interconnected network. Significant differences in incidence and co-occurrence were associated with sex, age, and illness severity. Besides the limitations inherent to EHR data, limitations of this study include that (i) the findings do not generalize to patients who have had COVID-19 but were not diagnosed, nor to patients who do not seek or receive medical attention when experiencing symptoms of long-COVID; (ii) the findings say nothing about the persistence of the clinical features; and (iii) the difference between cohorts might be affected by one cohort seeking or receiving more medical attention for their symptoms.

Long Covid: People Are Risking Their Health Going Back to the Office - When she first opened her eyes, Heather-Elizabeth Brown found herself in a hospital bed, surrounded by people coaching her through how to breathe. Initially, it struck her as bizarre that she was being encouraged to do something that’s usually automatic, but quickly realized how much effort she had to put into taking a single breath. It took a little longer for everything else to sink in.That’s because May 19th, 2020 — which Brown now refers to as her “rebirthday” — was when she emerged from a 31-day medically induced coma spent on a ventilator because of complications from Covid-19. “It’s very difficult to explain how surreal it is to wake up in another moment in life, on the other side of something,” Brown says, recalling the experience. For Brown, the end of her coma was the beginning of her life with long Covid — a staggering variety of physical and neurological symptoms and chronic health problems that last at least four weeks after a Covid-19 infection. Four weeks may not sound like the worst, but for Brown and others who were among the first to contract Covid in the spring of 2020, they’ve dealt with long Covid for a year and a half. Though it remains unclear how many people who contract Covid-19 end up with what was previously known as “long-haul” or “long-term” Covid, recent research from Oxford University and the National Institute for Health Researchestimates that 37 percent will end up experiencing at least one of their Covid symptoms three to six months after being infected.While the list of symptoms associated with long Covid continues to grow, some of the most common include extreme fatigue, cognitive difficulties referred to as “brain fog,” shortness of breath, headaches, joint and muscle pain, and sleep disruptions. Brown experiences many of those, along with additional long-term complications resulting from both her initial infection and subsequent intubation, including Covid-induced diabetes and high blood pressure, blood clots, and mobility issues. Like many people across the country, Brown, a full-time corporate trainer who also serves as a minister at theCitadel of Praise church in Detroit, was able to work remotely during the first part of the pandemic, but now is required to return to the office. Brown, for one, was lucky: her employer granted the workplace accommodations she requested — including a spot in a nearby parking garage, and permission to wear comfortable clothing to the office — that make it possible for her to perform the tasks required for her job. But even with those, her long Covid symptoms make it challenging to get through her commute, let alone a full workday.

Brazil's tragic ivermectin frenzy is a warning to the US, experts say - Many Brazilians used to spend about $30 a head on what they called the "kit COVID."It was a mix of vitamins and other pills that President Jair Bolsonaro touted as early treatments for COVID-19, well before vaccines became widely available to prevent and minimize coronavirus infections. Among the "kit" drugs were the malaria pill hydroxychloroquine and the antiparasitic tablet ivermectin. Brazilian authorities even at one point launched an app, calledTrateCov, (in English, an abbreviation of "treat COVID") which recommended the same seven "kit" drugs to all its users. (The evidence base for that protocol leaned heavily on data from Dr. Flávio Cadegiani, who's now a member of the FLCCC, a US-based ivermectin propaganda machine.) But Brazilians quickly discovered — through heart-wrenching personal experience — the limits of treating COVID-19 with ivermectin. Brazil suffered some of its worst death rates yet in late 2020 and early 2021, even in heavily ivermectin-dosed areas, as themore transmissible P1, or Gamma, variant spread quickly across the country."Look at what happened in Brazil," Natália Taschner, a Brazilian microbiologist and research scholar at Columbia University in New York, said. "Then wonder: If this drug worked, would Brazil be in such bad shape?"In July 2020, ivermectin was available for free to all residents of Itajaí, to the tune of about $826,000 in government spending. The mayor of Itajaí, the physician Volnei Morastoni, said at that timethat ivermectin was but "one more weapon in our war against the coronavirus." As infection rates soared, some people were taking excessively high doses of the medicine every day, hoping to stave off COVID-19, but in a few rare cases that move prompted liver failure.Other patients were unknowingly given the "kit" drugs by doctors in private hospitals instead of more standard treatments — and some of them died. Ivermectin "prescription practices didn't upend the tragedy of COVID here in Brazil in terms of preventing infections, preventing hospitalizations, and then preventing deaths," said Dr. Kevan Akrami, an infectious-disease and critical-care physician working in the northeastern city of Salvador. "Whether somebody was taking it or not didn't seem to have any impact on whether or not they got hospitalized or ended up dying from their COVID infection."

Merck announces promising new pill to treat COVID infections - On Friday morning, Merck, the pharmaceutical giant, announced significant positive results for their antiviral drug Molnupiravir (EIDD-2801) to treat people infected with early COVID-19 experiencing mild to moderate symptoms. According to the press release, their “oral antiviral” drug reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by around 50 percent. In fact, the phase three trial was stopped early on the recommendation by the independent data monitoring committee, in consultation with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), on these significant findings. The oversight committees are responsible for the conduct and integrity of such trials. If during a planned interim analysis of the data the review committee finds the drug to be efficacious, it can recommend stopping the trial, as not to further delay using these drugs that can benefit patients. The analysis showed that the COVID-19 pill reduced hospitalizations and death down from 14 percent in the group taking a placebo to 7 percent in those that were given the active ingredient. When the interim data was broken down further, the reduction in hospitalizations was only 39 percent. But more impressive was the reduction in deaths, from eight in the placebo group to zero taking the actual medication. The final analysis of all the data is anticipated shortly and peer-reviewed publication of the report will be important to ensure confidence in the process. But such a development is welcome news and an urgently-needed addition to the fight against the coronavirus. It is only an addition, however, and no substitute for an aggressive campaign to eradicate the virus using every possible public health measure, including lockdowns. Merck has indicated they have already proceeded with an application to the FDA to obtain emergency use authorization (EUA). Pending this approval, the positive findings mean that there is now, for the first time in the course of the pandemic, a COVID-19 treatment that can be administered by mouth. The pharmaceutical company expects to produce 10 million treatment courses by the end of the year and many more doses in 2022. In June 2021, the Biden administration signed an agreement with Merck for 1.7 million courses of treatment (one pill twice a day for five days) for a total price tag of $1.2 billion, or $700 for each course. The drug is expected to generate revenues up to $7 billion by year’s end. The company has said it has agreements with several governments but has not shared these details. As it stands, Molnupiravir will be catapulted into the profit stratosphere as one of the most lucrative drugs ever made.

Merck Charging US 40 Times What It Costs To Make Govt-Financed COVID Pill --Merck's new 'not Ivermectin' Covid-19 treatment, molnupiravir, costs $17.74 to produce - yet the company is charging the US government $712 for the treatment - a 40x markup, according to The Intercept, citing a report issued last week by the Harvard School of Public Health and King’s College Hospital in London.The pill, originally developed using US government funds as a possible treatment for Venezuelan equine encephalitis, cut the risk of hospitalization and death in half in a randomized trial of 775 adults with mild/moderate Covid who were considered at high risk for disease due to comorbidities such as obesity, diabetes and heart disease. The trial was stopped early so the company could apply for and emergency use authorization (EUA). The drug did not benefit patients who were already hospitalized with severe disease.News of the oral 'wonder drug' sent shares of Merck higher last week, as the company says it can deliver 10MM doses by the end of the year.Clearly, the pill could bring in massive profits to Merck and its partner on the drug, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics - which licensed the drug from Emory University in 2020 and then sold the worldwide rights to the drug to Merck for a sum which has not been disclosed.Meanwhile, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a division of the Department of Defense, funded development of the drug by Emory University to the tune of $10 million between 2013 and 2015, according to nonprofit group Knowledge Ecology International discovered.

Smoking highly likely to worsen COVID-19 severity and risk of associated death - Smoking is highly likely to worsen the severity of COVID-19 and the risk of dying from the infection, finds a large UK Biobank study published online in the respiratory journal Thorax. It is the first study of its kind to pool observational and genetic data on smoking and COVID-19 to strengthen the evidence base.The evidence on whether smoking is associated with a greater likelihood of more severe COVID-19 infection has been inconsistent, note the researchers. Several studies carried out early on in the pandemic reported a lower prevalence of active smokers among people admitted to hospital with COVID-19 than in the general population. But other population based studies have suggested that smoking is a risk factor for the infection. The researchers therefore drew on linked primary care records, COVID-19 test results, hospital admissions data and death certificates to look for associations between smoking and COVID-19 infection severity from January to August 2020 in 421,469 participants of the UK Biobank, all of whom had had their genetic make-up analysed when they agreed to take part in 2006-10. During the study period, 13446 (3.2%) people took a COVID-19 swab (PCR) test, 1649 (0.4%) of whom tested positive; 968 (0.2%) required admission to hospital; and 444 (0.1%) died as a result of their infection. Most (59%) participants had never smoked; over a third (37%) were former smokers; and only 4% were current smokers. Among current smokers, most (71%) were light or moderate smokers (1-19 cigarettes/day); only 29% were heavy smokers (20+/day). Compared with those who had never smoked, current smokers were 80% more likely to be admitted to hospital and significantly more likely to die from COVID-19.The researchers used Mendelian randomisation to assess whether a genetic predisposition to smoking and heavy smoking might have a role in COVID-19 severity among 281,105 of the original participants living in England. This revealed that a genetic predisposition to smoking was associated with a 45% higher risk of infection and a 60% higher risk of hospital admission for COVID-19. And it showed that a genetic predisposition to smoke more heavily was associated with a more than doubling in the risk of infection; a 5-fold increase in the risk of hospital admission; and a 10-fold increase in the risk of death from the virus.While the researchers acknowledge that they relied only on hospital COVID-19 test data rather than on more representative community data, they nevertheless point to the similarity of the findings in both sets of analyses.

COVID-19 may trigger hyperglycemia and worsen disease by harming fat cells -COVID-19 may bring high risks of severe disease and death in many patients by disrupting key metabolic signals and thereby triggering hyperglycemia, according to a new study from researchers at Weill Cornell Medicine and NewYork-Presbyterian. In the study, reported Sept. 15 in Cell Metabolism, the researchers found that hyperglycemia—having high blood sugar levels—is common in hospitalized COVID-19 patients and is strongly associated with worse outcomes. The researchers also found evidence suggesting that SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, can induce hyperglycemia by disrupting fat cells’ production of adiponectin, a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels. “We normally don’t think that fat cells are very active, but in fact they synthesize many protective proteins for your body—and it appears that SARS-CoV-2 may disable that protection in many patients,” Hyperglycemia, the core feature of diabetes, is associated with inflammation and weakened immunity against infections, and was recognized as a significant risk factor for severe COVID-19 early in the pandemic. However, doctors later began finding evidence that COVID-19 is associated with hyperglycemia in patients who have no history of diabetes. To better understand this important but mysterious aspect of COVID-19, Dr. James Lo and colleagues analyzed the records of 3,854 patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 in NewYork in the first few months of the pandemic in the United States. They found that a remarkably high proportion (49.7 percent) of these patients presented with hyperglycemia or developed it during their hospital stays. Hyperglycemia in these COVID-19 patients was also strikingly associated with worse outcomes. Compared to patients with normal blood sugar levels, the patients with hyperglycemia were 9 times more likely to develop severe lung dysfunction (acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS), 15 times more likely to be given mechanical ventilation, and 3 times more likely to die.

Stress of COVID-19 pandemic caused irregular menstrual cycles, study found -- Women and people who menstruate experienced irregularities in their menstrual cycle because of increased stress during the COVID-19 pandemic, a new Northwestern Medicine study has found. This is the first U.S. study to evaluate the impact of stress on peoples’ periods. The study surveyed more than 200 women and people who menstruate in the United States between July and August 2020 in order to better understand how stress during the COVID-19 pandemic influenced their menstrual cycles. More than half (54%) of the individuals in the study experienced changes in their menstrual cycle following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.Individuals who experienced higher levels of stress during the COVID-19 pandemic were more likely to experience heavier menstrual bleeding and a longer duration of their period, compared to individuals with moderate stress levels, the study found. The study, “Impact of Stress on Menstrual Cyclicity During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Survey Study,” was published September 28 in the Journal of Women’s Health. It provides a better understanding of how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted women’s mental and reproductive health, the study authors said.

COVID-19's latest odd side effect: 'Restless anal syndrome' - A newly published medical report by doctors in Japan has revealed a mysterious condition associated with the disease called “restless anal syndrome.” Its name is likened to the more commonly discussed restless legs syndrome (RLS) and describes exactly one 77-year-old patient’s afflictions.The man had only recently checked out of the Tokyo Medical University Hospital following a 21-day stay while ill with COVID-19. But despite having fully recovered from the virus, he returned to report uncomfortable new symptoms.He told physicians that he began suffering “deep anal discomfort” in the area between his anus and genitals, prompting him with the “essential urge to move” his bowels — which gave him no relief, according to their paper, available to read via “BMC Infectious Diseases.” As days passed, the patient observed that physical activity seemed to relieve his stressed anus, while lying low only increased his discomfort, which also spiked during the evening hours. A colonoscopy showed the man had internal hemorrhoids, but that didn’t explain his spasms. His nervous system also appeared to be in working order. COVID-19 is known for causing a shock wave of side effects, some of which are neurological, including loss of taste and smell, brain fog and numbness.That’s when doctors reckoned his awkward condition must be neurological, noting that his symptoms had manifested similar to RLS, which has been detected in at least two other recovered COVID-19 patients.The connection between the disease and RLS is not yet understood, said report author Dr. Itaru Nakamura. Nakamura’s patient, however, may be the first documented case of restless anal syndrome associated with COVID-19, he wrote.

For unvaccinated, reinfection by Covid-19 is likely - Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been much uncertainty about how long immunity lasts after someone who is unvaccinated is infected with SARS-CoV-2.Now a team of scientists led by faculty at Yale School of Public Health and the University of North Carolina at Charlotte have an answer. Strong protection following natural infection is short-lived. “Reinfection can reasonably happen in three months or less,” said Jeffrey Townsend, the Elihu Professor of Biostatistics at the Yale School of Public Health and a lead author of the study. “Therefore, those who have been naturally infected should get vaccinated. Previous infection alone can offer very little long-term protection against subsequent infections.”The study, published in the journal The Lancet Microbe, is the first to determine the likelihood of reinfection following natural infection and without vaccination. Townsend and his team analyzed known reinfection and immunological data from the close viral relatives of SARS-CoV-2 that cause “common colds” — along with immunological data from SARS-CoV-1 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. Leveraging evolutionary principles, the team was able to model the risk of COVID-19 reinfection over time.Reinfections can and have happened, even shortly after recovery. And they will become increasingly common as immunity wanes and new SARS-CoV-2 variants arise.“We tend to think about immunity as being immune or not immune. Our study cautions that we instead should be more focused on the risk of reinfection through time,” “As new variants arise, previous immune responses become less effective at combating the virus. Those who were naturally infected early in the pandemic are increasingly likely to become reinfected in the near future.”

The NYT’s Partisan Tale about COVID and the Unvaccinated is Rife with Sloppy Data Analysis - A widely shared article recently appeared in The New York Times’ “The Morning” newsletter titled “Red Covid,” authored by David Leonhardt. This article, presented as news reporting and not an opinion piece, argues that deaths from COVID-19 are “showing a partisan pattern,” with the worst impacts of the disease “increasingly concentrated in red America.” Given that this narrative perfectly flatters a liberal sense of superiority, it has predictably gained substantial traction on MSNBC and onTwitter. One particular claim in the Times' article caught my attention: that there is a clear and strong association on a county level between COVID deaths and support for Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Specifically, the article alleged that those counties which voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump had more than a four-fold greater mortality rate than those counties which decisively voted against Trump. If true, that would indeed be a striking observation.But, as is often the case with epidemiological observations, the question is more complicated than two variables. There are three analytic errors that can lead someone to make false conclusions from what appears to be a meaningful association between two variables: bias, confounding variables, and random statistical error. In this case, the Times’ analysis failed to discuss significant confounding variables. Age is a common confounder in public health research, and COVID-19 is no exception. The mortality burden of COVID-19 is not randomly distributed across age groups. Indeed, age appears to be the “strongest predictor of mortality” from COVID-19, with one’s risk of death increasing exponentially with age. According to CDC figures, the oldest populations experience a rate of death 570 times higher than that of the youngest populations. This is precisely why older populations were vaccinated first; we knew that prioritizing this population would have the most dramatic effect in curtailing hospitalizations and deaths. Yet the crude county-level analysis reported in The New York Times failed to adjust or account for age at all. Why is it especially important that we adjust for age when comparing COVID-19 mortality rates in “red” counties with “blue” counties? Because age is not randomly distributed geographically, nor is it randomly distributed on a partisan basis.Republican voters tend to be older than Democratic voters. And rural counties, where Trump won by the largest margins, have older populations than suburban and urban counties. So this means that age is clearly a third, unaccounted for factor that is associated with both the independent variable (a county’s political affiliation) and the dependent variable (COVID-19 fatality rate) in question. This makes it a significant confounder that could easily exaggerate or distort the measured effect and lead one to spurious conclusions. And all of this only accounts for one potential confounder (age). There are other potential confounders that should be addressed. For instance, the disparity in health outcomes between rural and urban populations likely means that people in counties that voted heavily for Trump have other comorbidities that place them at greater risk of death from COVID-19. And people who live in rural areas also experience significant disparities in health care access, with higher rates of uninsured,diminishing available health care facilities, and longer travel times to the nearest hospital.

COVID antibodies wane six months after second shot – except among one group. -An Israeli study conducted on 5,000 people indicates a steady waning of antibodies against the coronavirus six months after the second dose of the vaccine – except for one group: people who are overweight.The study was carried out on employees of Israel’s Sheba Medical Center at Tel Hashomer and published on Wednesday by The New England Journal of Medicine. “We’ve actually discovered from overweight people who have been vaccinated, whom we know are at increased risk of serious illness, that they surprisingly maintain a relatively high level of neutralizing antibodies over time,” Prof. Gili Regev-Yochay, who directs Sheba’s infectious disease unit. “What’s the significance of this? Of course, we need to clarify it. Are they really protected? That’s a very big question mark, and it could be that they’re not.”The aim of the study was to try to obtain a better understanding of the process in which the antibodies wane, and try to identify the precise threshold that distinguishes when someone is protected and when they are not.“Around the world, they are trying at the moment to identify the critical threshold of antibodies to prevent infection, illness, serious illness and even death. Identifying population groups under various thresholds, as was done in the study, will over time make it possible to estimate the level of risk of illness for every such group and thereby estimate the need, on one hand, for a booster shot, and on the other, for non-pharmacological means, such as quarantines or testing,” Regev-Yochay said.

Boosters, employer mandates drive increase in US vaccines - The number of Americans getting COVID-19 vaccines has steadily increased to a three-month high as seniors and people with medical conditions seek boosters, and government and employer mandates push more workers to take their first doses.Demand is expected to spike in a few weeks if regulators authorize the Pfizer vaccine for elementary school children, and some states are reopening mass vaccination clinics in anticipation.In Missouri, a mass vaccination site at a former Toys R Us store is set to open Monday. Virginia plans to roll out nine large vaccination centers over the next few weeks, including one at the Richmond International Raceway.Colorado opened four mass vaccination sites in mid-September, largely to deal with employer mandates, and officials saw a 38% increase in vaccinations statewide during the first week. The total number of doses being administered in the U.S. is climbing toward an average of 1 million per day, almost double the level from mid-July — but still far below last spring. The increase is mainly due to boosters, with nearly 10% of the nation’s over-65 population already getting third shots, but there are signs of increased demand from other groups as well.On Thursday, 1.1 million doses were given, including just over 306,000 to newly vaccinated people, said Dr. Cyrus Shahpar, the White House COVID-19 data director.Organizers of the effort to reach the roughly 67 million unvaccinated American adults say the rise in demand can be traced to approval of the Pfizer booster, mandates that have forced employees to choose between the shot and their jobs and sobering statistics that show nearly all COVID-19 deaths are among the unvaccinated.“We’re seeing people who need the shot to keep a job,” said Dr. Ricardo Gonzalez-Fisher, who runs a mobile vaccine clinic mostly for Latinos in Colorado.Last weekend, his clinic delivered 30 shots to people outside the Mexican Consulate in Denver. “On these days, 30 is a very good number,” he said.Virginia’s state vaccine coordinator, Dr. Danny Avula, said opening the large vaccination centers, will allow local health departments to focus on reaching underserved communities. “This should really help relieve the burden for our local providers,” he said.

‘The virus has become smarter’: COVID variants causing more severe disease, Canadian study shows - A newly published Canadian paper is sending out an unnerving message that may help nudge the vaccine hesitant: COVID-19 variants not only spread more easily than the original strain out of Wuhan, they’re capable of making people sicker. And none more so than Delta.The study, based on more than 212,000 cases of COVID-19 logged in Ontario between February and through to near the end of June, found higher risks of hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care and death with “variants of concerns,” or VOCs. those infected with Alpha, Beta or Gamma — variants renamed in May after Greek letters of the alphabet — were roughly 50 per cent more likely to be hospitalized or die than those who caught the debut strain.With Delta infections, the risk of hospitalization was 108 per cent higher, admission to intensive care was 235 per cent higher and death, 133 per cent higher.Of the total cases studied, only 2.8 per cent were “probable” Delta, which is now the dominant strain. People infected with the VOCs were, on average, younger and less likely to have underlying health conditions, “but nonetheless had higher crude risks of hospitalization and ICU admissions,” the authors wrote in a study published Tuesday by the Canadian Medical Association Journal. Given the relatively small number of Delta infections in the study, “it is remarkable that we detected a clear and significant elevated risk of uncommon, delayed outcomes, such as death,” they said.

New COVID vaccines may be needed next year, BioNTech CEO says - The scientist who helped develop the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine said a new version of the shot may be needed next year to protect against the virus.Dr. Ugur Sahin, BioNTech’s co-founder and CEO, said that while booster shots are effective against current strains, including the contagious Delta variant, there may be mutations that evade it in the future.“This year [a different vaccine] is completely unneeded. But by mid-next year, it could be a different situation,” Sahin told the Financial Times.The company’s booster shot uses the same formula as its original two-dose vaccine.But Sahin said next year could call for new formulas that are “tailored” to specifically target features of the new variants.“This virus will stay, and the virus will further adapt,” he told the outlet. “We have no reason to assume that the next-generation virus will be easier to handle for the immune system than the existing generation. This is a continuous evolution, and that evolution has just started.”BioNTech co-founder Dr. Ozlem Tureci, who is also Sahin’s wife, predicted last week that booster shots may be needed “every 12 to 18 months.” “For all these variants which are currently circulating, it seems that boosters alone, bringing the waning immune responses back to high levels, are suitable and do protect,” Tureci told CNBC. “However, we have to continue to screen because there might be variants upcoming for which this is not the case. And for this we have a second pillar, namely that we prepare ourselves to be quick and fast in the case that we need to adapt to a variant … And we are doing those dry runs, not alone, together with regulators, so that they are also prepared for the potential need to switch.”

Sweden, Denmark Restrict Use Of Moderna Jab Over Risk Of Heart Inflammation, Other Side Effects - As Dr. Fauci and other top public health officials in the US (along with their Big Pharma allies) continue to push for mandatory vaccinations for increasingly younger patients which could soon extend to babies as young as 6 months), health authorities in Sweden - which saw fewer excess deaths than its neighbors despite avoiding lockdowns during the initial wave of the COVID pandemic - have decided to stop giving the Moderna jab to anyone born in 1991 or later.The Swedes were joined a few hours later by health authorities in Denmark, who suspended use of Moderna's jab in patients aged 18 and younger. For context, the Modern jabs were found to be more likely to cause dangerous inflammation in the heart by at least one study - to patients born in 1991 (meaning anyone 30 and younger).“The Swedish Public Health Agency has decided to suspend the use of Moderna’s vaccine Spikevax, for everyone born 1991 and later, for precautionary reasons," it said in a statement."The cause is signals of an increased risk of side effects such as myocarditis and pericarditis. However, the risk of being affected is very small."But the Swedes aren't limiting use of all the mRNA jabs. Instead of the Moderna vaccine, the Swedish health agency says it's going to recommend the Pfizer jab for people in this age range instead, as those in the age range who have already received one Moderna jab will not be receiving a second (it's not clear whether they will be receiving a dose of Pfizer instead).

'Bridgerton' Emmy winner Marc Pilcher dead at 53 of COVID-19 - Hair and makeup artist Marc Pilcher died of COVID-19 on Sunday at the age of 53. He was double vaccinated and had no underlying health conditions, according to his agency Curtis Brown.“It is with the deepest of hearts we confirm that Marc Elliot Pilcher, Academy Award Nominee and Emmy Award winning hair and makeup designer/stylist, passed away after a battle with Covid-19 on Sunday 3rd October 2021,” his family told Variety in a statement via Curtis Brown.Pilcher recently scored the Creative Emmy for Outstanding Period And/Or Character Hairstyling on Sept. 11 for his work on Netflix’s “Bridgerton.”The designer had tested negative on several COVID-19 tests in order to make the trip to the ceremony; however, shortly after his return home, he fell sick.

How Many More Have to Die Because of COVID Lies? → Remember, if you are doubly or triplely vaccinated you won’t catch the Covid. Right? WRONG!! The latest lefty to succumb to the false assurances from Biden and his team of medical mediocrities is Academy Award Nominee and Emmy Award winning hair and makeup designer/stylist, Marc Elliot Pilcher. The dude was only 53.He was not grotesquely obese nor, according to the NY Post, afflicted with the co-morbidities that have been fatal to hundreds of thousands. Was it the maskless Emmy Ceremony that he attended recently that did him in (See Cristina’s post here)? The initial reports of his death by Covid were mute about his vaccination status. Now we know. A guy with two vaccines still got Covid.That is not how a genuine vaccine is supposed to work. If you take the vaccine for measles, polio or smallpox you do not get measles, polio or smallpox. But the number of people getting Covid notwithstanding having a couple of jabs is growing and it is alarming. Pilcher’s death should not be be treated as a statistical anomaly. Just look at the recent stories posted at Gateway Pundit highlighting the death or serious illness of vaccinated people:

Blacks, Latinos and Native Americans disproportionally killed by Covid-19 last year, study says -Covid-19 killed a disproportionate number of the country's Blacks, Latinos and Native Americans last year and exacerbated health disparities among the groups, a new study concludes.An estimated 477,200 more people died because of Covid-19 and other reasons from March to December 2020 compared to the same time in 2019, according to a study led by researchers with the National Cancer Institute published Monday in Annals of Internal Medicine.Overall deaths of male and female Blacks, Latinos and Native Americans were two to three times higher than those of white and Asian males and females during the assessed period when population per 100,000 people was accounted for, the study said.Of the 477,200 "excess deaths" last year, 351,400 people — or about 74 percent — died from Covid as the underlying cause, researchers said. The study said Black, Latino and Native American Covid-related deaths were "at least 2 times higher" than those of their white counterparts.The disparities were similar when the 61,200 deaths that weren't attributed to Covid were factored in, the study said. Deaths among Blacks and Native Americans were three to four times higher, and Latino deaths were nearly two times higher, compared to white populations, the study said..""These findings warn us that there is likely to be a severe widening of racial/ethnic disparities in all-cause mortality as longer-term data are released," she said. "Although vaccination rates accelerated rapidly during the spring of 2021, racial/ethnic inequities continue and will further drive mortality disparities if not addressed with urgency and cultural competence, as has been done by tribal communities."Blacks, Latinos and Native Americans also were dying at higher rates last year because of medical conditions like diabetes, heart disease and Alzheimer, although there were increases among all groups, according to the study."Although racial/ethnic differences in COVID-19 death rates have been profound, focusing on COVID-19 deaths alone may underestimate the extent of racial/ethnic disparities driven by the pandemic," researchers said.In total, 2.88 million people died in the time analyzed by the study last year. Researchers collected death certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and population estimates from the Census Bureau to reach their conclusions.The study listed structural inequities as factors that have led to the pandemic's negative effects on many communities of color."Racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 risk, hospitalization, and death have been attributed to structural and social determinants of health with established and deep roots in racism," the study said.

Over 173,000 children infected and 22 killed by COVID-19 in the US last week - On Monday, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) released its weekly report on COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths among children across the US. The results are once again horrific, with 173,469 children testing positive for COVID-19 and 22 dying from the virus last week. In total, some 5.9 million children have tested positive for COVID-19 and 520 have died in the US since the start of the pandemic.Since schools began reopening throughout the US in late July, more than 1,772,578 children have officially tested positive and 171 have died from COVID-19, as the highly transmissible Delta variant has spread rapidly in poorly-ventilated, overcrowded classrooms across the country.After more than 200,000 children officially tested positive over the previous five weeks, this figure decreased slightly last week. However, this is known to be a vast undercount of infections due to inadequate testing and various efforts by state governments to cover up cases.Underscoring the ongoing severity of the crisis, the number of child deaths last week increased from the weekly figure throughout the previous month and nearly set a record for the entire pandemic.Across the US and internationally, opposition is building among parents, educators and students to the homicidal school reopening policies that have infected millions of children and killed thousands worldwide. This was sharply expressed in the October 1 global school strike, with the central hashtag #SchoolStrike2021 trending for hours that day and used over 26,000 times in the week leading up to and including the strike.Contrary to the lies advanced by the Democratic Party and the teachers unions that children are only at risk of infection and death from COVID-19 in Republican-led states that have no mitigation measures whatsoever, pediatric infections, hospitalizations and deaths have approached or exceeded all-time highs throughout the US in recent weeks. Child deaths took place last week in Arizona, California, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.The South remains the geographic region with the most COVID-19 infections and deaths among children and the broader population due to lower vaccination rates and the complete lifting of all mitigation measures, with the brutal “herd immunity” strategy in full effect.

Over 140,000 US children have lost a parent or caregiver to COVID-19 - A study released Thursday in the journal Pediatrics found that “from April 1, 2020 through June 30, 2021, over 140,000 children in the US experienced the death of a parent or grandparent caregiver.” The results follow the July release of a study in The Lancet by the same lead author, Dr. Susan Hillis, which estimated that the same figure globally stood at 1.56 million children through the end of April 2021.These staggering figures underscore the immense scale of the tragedy that has swept across the globe during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the US, nearly one in four of the 621,656 deaths from COVID-19 by June 30 were those of parents or caregivers to children. The latest study notes, “the lives of these children are permanently changed by the deaths of their mothers, fathers, or grandparents who provided their homes, needs, and care,” adding, “Loss of parents is associated with mental health problems, shorter schooling, lower self-esteem, sexual risk behaviors, and risks of suicide, violence, sexual abuse, and exploitation. Loss of co-residing grandparents can impact psycho-social, practical, and/or financial support for grandchildren. After a caregiver’s death, family circumstances may change, and children may face housing instability, separations, and lack of nurturing support.” The level of trauma inflicted on an entire generation of young people is unfathomable. While the ruling elite and their media endlessly repeat the mantra that everyone must “learn to live with the virus,” in reality more and more families are being ripped apart as nearly 7,000 people continue to die from COVID-19 worldwide each day. Every child’s needless loss of a parent is a life-altering event, the vast majority of which have not been written on or covered by the corporate media. Some of those which have been covered offer a glimpse into the social crisis confronting these youth. In late August, five children from Yucaipa, California, were orphaned after both their parents, Davy and Daniel Macias, died from COVID-19 in the same week. Their entire family was infected with the virus during a vacation, with the children recovering but their parents becoming steadily more ill. The children, with the eldest only 7 years old, now live with their grandparents. Terry Seri, Daniel Macias’s sister-in-law, told local press that they “spend a lot of time at night looking for mom and dad.”

More pregnant women are being hospitalized due to COVID, Sharp doctor says – A Sharp HealthCare fetal medicine specialist says she’s seen a rise in the number of pregnant women hospitalized from COVID-19 as San Diego County reported Friday its first pregnant woman to die from the virus. Local public health officials say the woman, as well as her unborn child, died earlier this week after being hospitalized. Not much has been publicly shared about the woman due to privacy concerns, but officials said she was unvaccinated. More than 170 pregnant women nationwide have died of COVID-19 complications since the start of the pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Of those hospitalized, 97% have not been vaccinated against COVID, the CDC reported.“There is a significant increase in comparison to what we’re going through now with the delta surge to what we saw in the very beginning of the pandemic,” Dr. Joanna Adamczak of Sharp HealthCare told FOX 5.Adamczak said pregnant women already are in a high-risk group. Contracting COVID during pregnancy comes with the risk of premature birth, or death, she said. “Women are, in general, immunocompromised during pregnancy,” she said. “They have decreased lung capacity and all of that affects the mom.”

Kansas City Zoo Gorilla Recovering from COVID-19 - Kansas City Zoo announced in a press release that one of the western lowland gorillas recently carries a delta variant of COVID-19. It is estimated that the other five gorillas that make up the zoo’s army are also positive. The zoo has not yet received official test results. All gorillas show symptoms of the virus, but some have already returned to normal. The zoo says the rest of the troops continue to respond to treatment and improve. Gorilla care professionals first noticed that gorilla Charlie looked sick on September 22nd and began coughing on September 25th. The zoo veterinary health team began treatment immediately, but within a few days other gorillas began to show symptoms. Cough and loss of appetite are among the many cosmetic symptoms that animals have begun to exhibit All gorillas will be vaccinated with the Zoetis vaccine specially developed for animals. Studies have shown that vaccines are safe, according to the zoo. “As always, Kansas City Zoo’s top priorities are the health and safety of animals, guests and staff. As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, the zoo implemented a protocol. With susceptible animals. To keep the caregiver safe, “KC Zoo said in a press release. The zoo does not know how the gorilla was infected with the virus. They also say that visitors to the KC Zoo are not at risk of being infected with COVID-19 due to the visibility and design of their gorilla habitat.

October 5th COVID-19: 7-Day Average Cases Falls Below 100K, Lowest since August 3rd 00 The CDC is the source for all data. (see tables)According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 397,718,055, as of a week ago 391,152,574, or 0.94 million doses per day. For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID). 13 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 69.8%, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, and District of Columbia at 60.5%. The following 22 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Colorado at 59.8%, California, Minnesota, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, Ohio and North Carolina at 50.2%.Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Montana at 48.8%, Indiana at 48.7%, Missouri at 48.3% and Oklahoma at 48.1%. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Alaska held COVID-19 at bay but sudden delta spike is devastating -- Alaskan hospitals are becoming overwhelmed and rationing care as the delta variant and new COVID-19 cases run rampant in the state. Remote areas such as Tanacross had initially fended off the coronavirus pandemic by isolating its community early on, however, new variants have begun to reach the area.On Tuesday, the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS) announced three deaths of Alaska residents and 871 new COVID-19 cases in the state. Of the newly identified cases, 835 were residents and 36 were nonresidents.There are currently 194 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 who are hospitalized, however, hospitalizations are complicated by Alaska’s limited health care system. With its largest hospitals located in the state’s two major cities of Anchorage and Fairbanks, these hospitals are overwhelmed and residents located in more remote areas are left struggling to reach necessary medical care in critical cases.On Saturday, the state enacted its crisis standards of care for medical facilities in the state. “Today, due to the current surge in COVID-19 cases and a shortage of resources within some hospitals, the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS) activated the State’s crisis standards of care document, Patient Care Strategies for Scarce Resource Situations, for 20 Alaska health care facilities,” the DHSS said in a release.Major challenges facing Alaskan medical facilities at this time include limited renal replacement therapy (a type of dialysis for kidney failure) and a lack of staff trained to use it, limited oxygen supplies and equipment, a lack of needed medical and nonclinical staff, and problems transporting patients from rural communities to critical access hospitals.In Alaska, 58.3 percent of residents 12 and older have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus.

US: Doctors in Alaska making ‘difficult choices’ amid COVID surge -Although coronavirus cases have seen an overall decline in the United States in recent weeks, at least one state is experiencing a surge in new infections that has inundated its hospitals and forced medical workers to ration care.The state of Alaska has reported the highest per capita infection rate in the country over the last seven days, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The US is reporting a national average of 106,000 daily new infections, according to the CDC, a 13 percent drop from the previous week, but in Alaska, more than 6,000 new cases have been detected over the past week.Carissa Etienne, director of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), the Americas branch of the World Health Organization, warned on Wednesday that doctors in Alaska have been forced to make “difficult choices” amid the surge in cases.“In the state of Alaska, which today reports the US’s worst COVID outbreak, emergency rooms are overwhelmed with COVID patients and doctors face difficult choices about how to allocate hospital beds,” Etienne said during a regular news briefing. Local media reported that the new wave of infections is fuelled by the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant, as well as stagnated vaccination rates. According to the CDC, a bit more than 50 percent of the population in Alaska is fully vaccinated, below the national average of 56 percent.The COVID-19 surge is worsened by Alaska’s limited healthcare system that largely relies on hospitals in Anchorage, the biggest city.It is where the state’s largest hospital, Providence Alaska Medical Center, is overwhelmed with patients and was the first weeks ago to declare crisis-of-care protocols, meaning doctors are sometimes prioritising care based on who has the best odds of survival.Since then, 19 other healthcare facilities in Alaska, including Anchorage’s two other hospitals and Fairbanks Memorial, have also entered crisis care mode, something overtaxed facilities in other states have had to do, including Idaho and Wyoming.Medical workers “describe the emotions of: ‘You hear a code is happening, someone is passing away,'” said Jared Kosin, president and CEO of the Alaska State Hospital and Nursing Home Association.“That is devastating. You never want to lose a patient. But in the back of your mind, you’re thinking, ‘OK, another bed is now available that is critically needed.’ And how do you balance those emotions? It’s gut-wrenching.”

375 Michigan children infected with COVID-19 every day - A new report from the state of Michigan released Tuesday shows a steady rise in COVID-19 cases among children, with over 375 children under 12 years old becoming infected each day over the previous week. As of Friday, 35 children are now hospitalized with the virus across the state, more than double the number from one month ago. The report also makes an explicit warning about the dangers of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), stating, “Expect cases to rise in future” because “Higher community transmission is followed by higher incidence of MIS-C cases nationally.” MIS-C is a horrific condition observed in some children infected with COVID-19, in which “multiple organ systems become inflamed or dysfunctional,” as the report explains. At least 169 children and adolescents in Michigan alone have suffered MIS-C so far, the majority of them younger than 12. Over 70 percent of MIS-C patients have been sent to the ICU and five have died. Contrary to the claims of the Biden administration, children can catch COVID-19, suffer severe symptoms, and even die from the virus. Last week, 22 children died from COVID-19 in the US, bringing the nationwide pediatric death toll to 520. Michigan is one of several states that do not report the total number of child COVID-19 deaths, but among the victims was an 18-year-old student at Decatur High School, near Kalamazoo. Internationally, COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death among children in Brazil. Recent studies also indicate that roughly one in seven infected children develops Long COVID, suffering debilitating symptoms months after infection. Another study showed an average loss of two to seven IQ points in those who have recovered from COVID-19. For comparison, lead poisoning can cause a loss of two IQ points. In-person learning is not only putting children’s lives and health at risk; it is fueling the spread of the pandemic through communities throughout Michigan and nationally. The daily new case rate in Michigan has increased over 75 percent since schools fully reopened across the state one month ago, with the seven-day average going from 2,360 on September 7 to 4,175 on October 7. The new report shows that school-aged children (5-18 years old) saw a rapid rise in infections and hospitalizations over the same time period, larger than any other age group.

Fauci says he 'strongly suspects' that COVID-19 deaths will go down in the winter - Top infectious diseases expert Anthony Fauci said that he “strongly suspects” COVID-19 deaths will go down in the winter. During an interview with Greta Van Susteren to be aired on Sunday, Fauci was asked if he expected another surge of coronavirus cases due to the delta variant or other variants such as mu this winter. He responded that it would depend on how well the United States is able to vaccinate the millions of Americans who have not yet gotten a coronavirus shot. “Fortunately, right now, over the last few weeks, we've seen a turnaround in the slope in going down in both cases and hospitalizations. Deaths are still up, but it's really flattening, so it's a lagging indicator,” Fauci told Van Susteren. “I strongly suspect that you're going to start seeing the deaths go down similar to the hospitalizations; how quickly they go down and how thoroughly they go down is going to depend a lot on a number of circumstances, which will be influenced by things like the colder weather, people doing things indoors, how well they go by the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] guidelines of, when you have a lot of infection in the community, even though you're vaccinated, when you are not home but outside congregate settings in the public, wearing masks, I think would be very prudent,” he added. Experts are divided about whether this most recent COVID-19 surge of cases will be the last one. Data from the CDC indicates that nationwide COVID-19 cases are generally starting to trend downward, but only about 56 percent of the country’s total population has been fully vaccinated. Colder weather, with more people being situated inside, could make it difficult to predict how well COVID-19 cases get tamped down later in the fall and upcoming winter given that that environment has allowed the virus to spread previously. Leana Wen, public health professor at George Washington University and an emergency physician, told The Hill that some states are still grappling with the latest delta wave. “I'm very concerned about people becoming complacent because they think that the delta wave is passing us,” Wen said. “We have seen this happen before, where there is a rise in the number of cases, then a decline, and then people let down their guard. And as a result, we plateau at a very high level of cases. That's unacceptable.”

Somalia opens nation’s first public oxygen plant amid pandemic — Somalia has opened the country’s first public oxygen plant as the Horn of Africa nation with one of the world’s weakest health systems combats COVID-19. The oxygen plant was installed Thursday at a hospital in the capital, Mogadishu. It is expected to produce 1,000 cylinders of oxygen a week.The scarcity of medical oxygen has hurt response efforts across many African nations as the delta variant of the coronavirus now drives the bulk of infections on the continent of 1.3 billion people.“When we have people in the hospitals for COVID, the most important component is oxygen,” said Fawziya Abikar, Somalia’s health minister. “During the last months, we had a shortage of oxygen in all the city.” Another such plant will be donated soon, she said. This one was purchased by the Hormuud Salaam Foundation, the charitable arm of Hormuud Telecom. Insecurity in Somalia poses an added challenge to efforts to fight the pandemic. A COVID-19 ward recently set up at the hospital was partially destroyed weeks ago in an attack by the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab extremist group, which controls parts of Somalia and frequently targets the capital. Part of the work around the oxygen plant’s installation focused on repairing that damage. Somalia has one of the highest case fatality rates from COVID-19 in Africa, and few measures are enforced to slow the spread of the virus.The country has had nearly 20,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, but more infections are likely undetected because testing is not widespread. Just 1% of the country’s population of more than 15 million has been vaccinated.

A year later, 45% of COVID patients in Wuhan still have symptoms - Among thousands of the earliest survivors of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, nearly half had at least one persistent symptom a full year after being released from the hospital, according to a new study published in JAMA Network Open. The study followed up with 2,433 adult patients who had been hospitalized in one of two hospitals in Wuhan early on in the pandemic. Most had nonsevere cases, but a small number had severe COVID-19 and required intensive care. All of the patients were discharged between February 12 and April 10, 2020, and the study follow-up took place in March of 2021.Overall, 45 percent of the patients reported at least one symptom in that one-year follow-up. The most common symptoms were fatigue, sweating, chest tightness, anxiety, and myalgia (muscle pain). Having a severe case of COVID-19 increased the likelihood of long-lingering symptoms; 54 percent of the 680 severe cases reported at least one symptom after a year. But persistent symptoms were also common among the nonsevere cases, with 41.5 percent of 1,752 nonsevere cases reporting at least one symptom a year later.The data echo that of other studies, which have also found that it is not rare for people with milder cases of COVID-19 to experience persistent symptoms. A small Norwegian study published by Nature Medicine in June found 55 percent of 247 nonhospitalized patients with mild-to-moderate disease had persistent symptoms six months after testing positive. A UK study involving 273,618 COVID-19 patients noted that more than half of nonhospitalized patients reported features of long-COVID within a six-month follow-up period. That study was published earlier this week in PLOS Medicine.Researchers and medical experts have yet to fully understand why COVID-19 causes long-term symptoms and why symptoms strike some patients and not others. The authors of the latest study highlight the multisystem nature of the infectious disease."COVID-19 can affect multiple organs, which leads to both acute organ damage and long-term sequelae, with the latter effects gaining increasing concerns," they write. In particular, they note that fatigue was the most common persistent symptom identified—something backed up in other studies. Fatigue is common after acute lung injuries but could also be the consequence of multiple organ injuries. The researchers also highlighted that about 4 percent of patients still reported heart palpitations a year later, pointing to possible long-term damage to the cardiovascular system. Cardiovascular complications are a known risk of COVID-19, including inflammation of the heart muscle (myocarditis).

Coronavirus deaths in Russia surpass 900 a day for first time -Russia’s daily coronavirus death toll surpassed 900 on Wednesday for the first time in the pandemic, a record that comes amid the country’s low vaccination rate and the government’s reluctance to impose tough restrictions to control new cases.Russia’s state coronavirus task force reported 929 new deaths on Wednesday, the fourth time this month that daily COVID-19 deaths have reached record highs. The previous record, of 895 deaths, was registered Tuesday. Russia already has Europe’s highest death toll in the pandemic at over 212,000 people, but some official data suggests that is an undercount.The task force also reported 25,133 new confirmed cases Wednesday.The ise in infections and deaths began in late September. The Kremlin has blamed it on too few Russians getting vaccinated. As of Tuesday, almost 33% of Russia’s 146 million people had received at least one shot of a coronavirus vaccine, and 29% were fully vaccinated.Despite the surge, government officials rejected the idea of i mposing a lockdown and said regional authorities would take steps to stem the spread of the virus.

Brazil surges past 600K COVID-19 deaths - Brazil's Health Ministry on Friday said the country has climbed past 600,000 COVID-19 deaths, making the country the second in the world to reach that milestone. As of Friday, Brazil recorded 18,172 new coronavirus cases and 615 new deaths, according to Reuters. Brazil is the second country to reach the milestone of 600,000 COVID-19 deaths, after the United States. Earlier this month, the U.S. hit a grave milestone, surpassing 700,000 deaths linked to the coronavirus. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in the last seven days, the United States has seen a total of 9,948 deaths linked to COVID-19 and has reached more than 708,700 deaths. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been vocal about his disdain for vaccines and has boasted about his unvaccinated status in the past. In September, he was forced to isolate shortly after attending the United Nations General Assembly and one of his aides tested positive for coronavirus. He also called for those who have been vaccinated to no longer wear masks to protect themselves and others from the virus. “Whoever is against this proposal is because they don’t believe in science, because if they are vaccinated, there is no way the virus can be transmitted,” he said at the time. The Brazilian Health Ministry has reported that just 12 percent of the nation's citizens have been fully vaccinated.

Philippines overwhelmed by COVID-19 onslaught - Southeast Asia, home to more than 650 million people, has reportedly experienced the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the world in recent months. The Delta variant has devastated countries which have failed to contain the more contagious strain, amid delayed and chaotic vaccination rollouts. The region’s disaster has been compounded by the near-collapse of chronically underfunded healthcare systems and widespread losses of jobs and incomes. Popular disaffection is rising as millions of people, mostly impoverished, suffer the worsening impact on lives and livelihoods of the failure of capitalist governments, locally and around the globe, to protect them from COVID-19. Bloomberg’s Covid Resilience Ranking for September listed Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam in the bottom five countries worst hit. The Philippines fell to last place following a sharp decline over the course of 2021. The monthly snapshot—a pointer to where finance capital sees the virus being handled the most effectively and with the least social and economic upheaval—ranks 53 major economies on 12 data points related to virus containment, “the economy” and “opening up.” On October 6 the Philippines recorded 9,847 new cases with a 7-day average running at 12,455. Total cases have risen to over 2.6 million, with 115,328 active cases and a death toll of 38,937. Most of the deaths occurred during a spike in March–April, followed by the latest surge beginning in July. At its peak in mid-September, the 7-day average was running at 21,000 cases and 400 deaths. The death total is second-worst in Southeast Asia after Indonesia, which has registered 142,600 dead among a population of 273.5 million. The Philippines last month had the second-worst positive test rate in Bloomberg’s rankings, at 27 percent—only above Mexico. The government is however only testing the sickest patients for COVID and there are likely high levels of undetected community infections. According to the Philippine News Agency on October 5, the country has a total of just 77,410,640 doses. Fewer than 22 million people are fully vaccinated, in a population of 110 million. Spokesman Harry Roque stated the government was “not surprised” that the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations landed at the bottom the Bloomberg list, as richer countries get more vaccines.

Lead contamination found in blood of half of young kids in U.S. - About half of young children who were tested for lead had detectable levels of the toxic metal in their blood, according to a new study published in the peer-reviewed journal JAMA Pediatrics on Monday. While most of the kids had relatively smaller amounts, about 2% had a level that is considered high. The research tracked more than 1.1 million children under the age of 6 years who underwent lead testing from October 2018 through February 2020. The findings are likely to raise public health alarms in the U.S., especially amid concerns that lead exposure may be worsening during the pandemic, as well as new questions about the significance of lower levels of lead exposure. "The broad picture is: Kids have lead in the U.S.," "For lead there's no too low. We want zero." Kids get exposed to lead in their environment, often through lead paint in older homes. Other sources include lead pipes that bring water into houses and lead found in soil outdoors. There is no level of lead in blood that's known to be safe, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. Lead is known to cause likely irreversible damage to still-growing young children, including by harming the brain and nervous system and leading to issues with learning, behavior, hearing and speech. The new study is the first to examine low levels of lead in children's blood, enabled by more sensitive technology, said Harvey Kaufman, a co-author of the study. Kaufman is also senior medical director at Quest Diagnostics Inc., which performed the testing for the study. The researchers expected that some children would have detectable amounts of lead in their blood, "but we were surprised that it was half of all children who were tested," he said. The authors of the study also found connections between lead exposure and poverty, old housing and predominantly Black and Hispanic communities, which is broadly consistent with other lead research. "These findings confirm that we still have a long way to go to end childhood lead poisoning in the United States," wrote Philip Landrigan and David Bellinger in a corresponding editorial also published Monday in the journal, and "underscore the urgent need to eliminate all sources of lead exposure."

Newsom signs laws banning 'forever chemicals' in children's products, food packaging - California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed two laws on Tuesday banning the use of toxic “forever chemicals” in children’s products and disposable food packaging, as well as a package of bills to overhaul the state’s recycling operations, his office announced that evening. “California’s hallmark is solving problems through innovation, and we’re harnessing that spirit to reduce the waste filling our landfills and generating harmful pollutants driving the climate crisis,” Newsom said in a press statement. The pollutants driving the first two laws are perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a group of toxic compounds linked to kidney, liver, immunological, developmental and reproductive issues. These so-called “forever chemicals” are most known for contaminating waterways via firefighting foam, but they are also key ingredients in an array of household products like nonstick pans, toys, makeup, fast-food containers and waterproof apparel. One of the laws, introduced by Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D), prohibits the use of PFAS in children’s products, such as car seats and cribs, beginning on July 1, 2023, according to the governor’s office. “As a mother, it’s hard for me to think of a greater priority than the safety and well-being of my child,” said Friedman, in a news release from the Environmental Working Group (EWG). “PFAS have been linked to serious health problems, including hormone disruption, kidney and liver damage, thyroid disease and immune system disruption. Because PFAS coating on infant car seats and bedding wear off with time, the toxins can get into the dust that children might inhale, according to the EWG. The second PFAS-related law, proposed by Assemblyman Philip Ting (D), bans intentionally added PFAS from food packaging and requires cookware manufacturers to disclose the presence of PFAS and other chemicals on products and labels online — beginning on January 1, 2023. “PFAS chemicals have been a hidden threat to our health for far too long,” Ting said in a second EWG news release. “I applaud the governor for signing my bill, which allows us to target, as well as limit, some of the harmful toxins coming into contact with our food.” Despite the widely recognized risks of PFAS exposure, the Environmental Protection Agency has only established “health advisory levels” for the two most well-known compounds rather than regulate the more than 5,000 types of PFAS. States like California have therefore taken to enacting bits and pieces of legislation on their own. Although the House passed a bill in July that would require the EPA to set standards, companion legislation has yet to reach the Senate.

We’re Miscalculating the Cancer Risk From a Massive Class of Chemicals: MIT Study - Around the world, regulators have long relied on one compound to assess a community's lung cancer risk from a class of chemicals that we're exposed to while grilling burgers, waiting in traffic, and breathing in wood smoke from a fire.That compound—benzo(a)pyrene, a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)—however, only accounts for 11% of lung cancer risk associated with PAHs, MIT researchers found in a study published earlier this month inGeoHealth. Meanwhile, 17% of the PAH-linked cancer risk in the study came from the largely unregulated and under-studied breakdown products.People can be exposed to PAHs in a variety of ways, from smoking to eating grilled food to breathing in tailpipe or wildfire emissions. Workers in coal plants, or those who use coal products, are consideredespecially at-risk to PAH exposure.When people inhale PAH particles, the particles can travel deep into the lungs, causing cell mutations that can lead to lung cancer. Scientists are also concerned about exposure to PAHs through food and drinking water, as ingestion has been linked to birth defects and higher prevalence of developing breast, pancreatic, and colon cancers.Experts say this study provides further evidence that both regulators and scientists need to factor in a broader range of PAH compounds when assessing a community's cancer risks — and determining what pollution reduction projects to fund. As part of their work on a Superfund site in Maine, the MIT researchers examined global lung cancer risk from 16 PAH compounds and their degradation products — 48 altogether.Once they had developed a global atmospheric model for PAH concentrations and fine-tuned it against real-world pollutant measurements, the researchers used animal studies to assess the associated lung cancer risk from different PAH compounds. They also estimated lung cancer risks based on epidemiological studies that use benzo(a)pyrene as a proxy for overall PAH cancer risk.While they found that industrial regions in China, India, and Eastern Europe had the highest levels of lung cancer risk in both methods, animal experiments showed that changing benzo(a)pyrene emissions did not have a linear correlation with overall lung cancer risk from PAHs. For example, although simulated benzo(a)pyrene emissions were 3.5 times higher in Hong Kong than in India, the animal-based method predicted that Hong Kong residents are 12 times more likely to develop lung cancer, according to the paper.

Study links air pollution to nearly 6 million preterm births around the world - Air pollution likely contributed to almost 6 million premature births and almost 3 million underweight babies in 2019, according to a UC San Francisco and University of Washington global burden of disease study and meta-analysis that quantifies the effects of indoor and outdoor pollution around the world. The analysis, published September 28, 2021, in PLOS Medicine, is the most in-depth look yet at how air pollution affects several key indicators of pregnancy, including gestational age at birth, reduction in birth weight, low birth weight, and preterm birth. And it is the first global burden of disease study of these indicators to include the effects of indoor air pollution, mostly from cook stoves, which accounted for two-thirds of the measured effects.A growing body of evidence points to air pollution as a major cause of preterm birth and low birthweight. Preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal mortality worldwide, affecting more than 15 million infants every year. Children with low birthweight or who are born premature have higher rates of major illness throughout their lives. The World Health Organization estimates that more than 90 percent of the world’s population lives with polluted outdoor air, and half the global population is also exposed to indoor air pollution from burning coal, dung and wood inside the home.

Pittsburgh's air was unhealthy to breathe for 57 days in 2020 - —Air pollution in Pittsburgh reached unhealthy levels for 57 days—or nearly two months—in 2020, according to a new report.The report, published today by environmental and public interest advocacy groups Environment America, U.S. Public Interest Research Group (PIRG), and Frontier Group, tallied days that exceeded federal guidelines for ozone or particulate matter pollution in urban and rural areas across the U.S.Ozone and particulate matter pollution can trigger a host of respiratory and heart issues including heart attacks, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Particulate matter pollution is also linked to cancer, premature births, and autism. The Pittsburgh region has higher than average rates of asthma and certain types of cancer linked to air pollution.Most of the region's air pollution comes from traffic and a handful of industrial polluters."We found that unhealthy air pollution continues to be a problem for millions of Pennsylvanians across the Commonwealth," Zachary Barber, a clean air advocate with PennEnvironment, the Pennsylvania chapter of Environment America, told EHN. "Here in southwest Pennsylvania, many people are experiencing one or more days of unhealthy air quality every week." "For parents of kids with asthma, these were all days they had to be concerned about their kids being able to walk to school and play on the playground without having an asthma attack," he added. The report found widespread exposure to unhealthy levels of air pollution across the country. It estimates that 237.6 million Americans—more than 70% of the population—were exposed to more than a month of unhealthy air days in 2020.

Report: Central PA has worse air quality than Philly or Pittsburgh - It is no secret that Pennsylvania, or parts of it, has unhealthy air. The York County area, for instance, routinely is among the leaders in the state for poor air quality, tabulating the most number of days a year with unhealthy levels of ozone and particulate pollution.And a new study by environmental and public policy advocacy groups concludes that in 2020, central Pennsylvania led the state in the number of days with unhealthy air quality, with the York-Hanover area ranked fourth in registering the number of days with elevated levels of air pollution at 65.The study, conducted by the PennEnvironment Research and Policy Center and the Frontier Group, collated the number of days certain geographic areas had elevated amounts of ozone and particulates in the air — pollution that can be linked to a number of health issues, from increased cases of asthma, elevated cancer risk and dangerous cardio-vascular maladies. It found that Lancaster County registered the largest number of poor air quality days in the state in 2020, at 107. The Harrisburg-Carlisle area was second, at 97. Reading was third, at 82. For contrast, nearby Lebanon County ranked low, with a mere 26 days of unhealthy air. That county experienced zero days with elevated ozone and only 26 with elevated particulates in the air.The central Pennsylvania counties fared worse than the state's urban centers, the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington area, Pittsburgh and the New York-Newark-Jersey City area, which encompasses the northeastern corner of the commonwealth.“No area is immune to the human-caused effects of climate change,” state Rep. Carol Hill-Evans, D-York, said at a news conference Tuesday. "York County ranked 4th highest in the amount of degraded air quality days due to the level of pollution in the air. This is an unacceptable statistic, and even one degraded air quality day is too many.” Researchers reviewed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency air pollution records to determine which areas had the most number of days with unhealthy levels of ozone and particulate pollution, which comes primarily from burning fossil fuels and from wildfires. The report's authors wrote that climate change has exacerbated the problem. "Fossil fuel combustion is the primary human-caused source of air pollution – and the main driver of global warming, which threatens to make air quality even worse in the years to come," the report states. The report's authors call for reducing reliance on fossil fuels, increasing the use of renewable energy and electric vehicles and strengthening federal air quality standards.

What happened when the EPA stopped enforcing its rules? --At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic last year, the Environmental Protection Agency under the Trump Administration announced a policy that relaxed federal environmental monitoring and reporting requirements for polluting industries across the country. The March announcement meant that the agency, which is charged with enforcing the country’s environmental laws, wouldn’t likely seek penalties from facilities who failed to monitor or report regulatory violations due to the pandemic. By later in the spring, research was already showing a connection between elevated COVID-19 death rates and air pollution, and a national coalition of environmental justice organizations challenged the policy. Earlier this year, new research confirmed the coalition’s fears. The study, conducted by two American University scholars, found that counties with more industrial facilities that release toxic chemicals experienced increases in air pollution after the rollback of federal environmental enforcement. The study also found that increased pollution led to large and statistically significant increases in COVID-19 cases and deaths, and that the increased pollution exposure was more severe in those counties with a greater number of Black residents. Now, in an effort to address long-standing systemic environmental inequities as well as the implications of the 2020 EPA decision to relax enforcement of the country’s environmental protection laws, the House Committee on Natural Resources is leading an effort to hold congressional hearings that would publicly acknowledge and examine the effects of that decision. The ultimate goal is to promote legislative solutions that tackle the cumulative effects of environmental injustices that have been magnified in vulnerable communities during the public health crisis. “What just happened is an abject example of something that happens and has happened historically far too many times,” Democratic U.S. Representative and Committee on Natural Resources Chair Raúl M. Grijalva told Grist. “We need to codify into law the protections and the rights that communities will have moving forward.”

Almost one-in-three people globally will still be mainly using polluting cooking fuels in 2030, research shows Almost one-in-three people around the world will still be mainly using polluting cooking fuels and technologies– a major source of disease and environmental destruction and devastation – in 2030, new research warned. This rises to more than four-in-five in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of people mainly using polluting fuels is growing at an alarming rate.A new study, carried out by UK researchers and the World Health Organization (WHO), has estimated that just under 3 billion people worldwide – including more than one billion in Sub-Saharan Africa - will still mainly be using polluting fuels such as wood fuels and charcoal at the end of the decade.These ‘dirty’ fuels are a source of major health risks as they produce high levels of household air pollution – chronic exposure to which increases the risk of heart disease, pneumonia, lung cancer and strokes, amongst others. While the overall percentage of the global population mainly using polluting cooking fuels has been steadily decreasing since 1990, this trend is already showing signs of stagnation. Six in in ten people in rural areas are still reliant on biomass fuels such as wood and charcoal.Reports by the WHO and others have attributed household air pollution from these fuels to millions of deaths per year – comparable to the death toll from outdoor air pollution. At the same time, fuel collection is often tasked to women and children, reducing opportunities for education, or income generation.Polluting fuels are also an important cause of environmental degradation and climate change, with the black carbon from residential biomass cooking estimate to account for 25% of anthropogenic global black carbon emissions each year.The researchers insist the pivotal new study shows that, although progress has been made, the quest to deliver universal access to clean cooking by 2030 is “far off track”.

When the western US burns, the east also gets sick —While most of the largest U.S. wildfires occur in the Western U.S., almost three-quarters of the smoke-related deaths and visits to the emergency room for asthma occur east of the Rocky Mountains.Smoke exposure, whether from wildfires or local burning, contributes to health problems across the U.S., but the impacts vary by region. A new study finds that smoke contributes to a larger percentage of health problems in the West, but affects greater numbers of people in the East — possibly when they aren't even aware of the smoky air.The new study was published inGeoHealth, AGU’s journal investigating the intersection of human and planetary health for a sustainable future. In the West, where population density is generally lower and smoke concentrations are typically higher, smoke played a larger role in the number of asthma complaints and ER visits, contributing to more than 1% of annual visits in some years. In the East, with its high population density and lower smoke concentrations, there were a higher number of visits overall, even though a smaller percentage were related to smoke (0.3% to 0.6%).The researchers estimate that long-term smoke exposure results in about 6,300 extra deaths each year, with the highest numbers occurring in the most populous states. Only 1,700 of those deaths occurred in the West.Fires throw tremendous amounts of pollutants into the air, including toxic gases and soot. Smoke contains tiny particles smaller than 2.5 microns, called PM_2.5, that enter the lungs and contribute to multiple health problems. Short-term exposure to PM_2.5 from smoke is linked to respiratory health problems, like asthma attacks, and the long-term effects of PM_2.5 from smoke are not fully understood. Research on PM_2.5 from urban pollution suggests that exposure is linked to lung cancer, heart disease and an overall higher chance of death. "Large wildfires are projected to increase in frequency and burned area in the Western U.S. Because of that, and projected decreases in urban-sourced PM_2.5, fires are expected to become the dominant source of PM_2.5 in the U.S. by the end of the century," said atmospheric scientist and first author Katelyn O'Dell. O'Dell was formerly a graduate student at Colorado State University but is now a postdoctoral researcher at George Washington University. "We wanted to study the impacts of wildfire smoke specifically on health so we can better prepare for that future, when we expect to have more smoke in our lives."

You thought the U.S. fire season was bad. Russia’s is much worse. - In mid August, the leader of the Republic of Sakha, in Russia, told residents not to go outside, and to avoid breathing unfiltered air if at all possible. Wildfire smoke filled the streets of Yakutsk, reducing visibility to less than a block. Smoke spread to the North Pole for the first time ever. It spread across the Pacific Ocean. We don’t yet know how much land has been consumed by wildfires this season, that satellite data is still coming in. A report from Greenpeace, based on statistics from Russian fire services, estimates that 65,000 square miles have burned — more than six times the area burned in the United States so far this year. At their peak, in August, 190 blazes were spreading across Sakha and Chukotka, Russia’s farthest northeastern regions. In July and August, wildfires in northeastern Russia released 806 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,according to a new report from Copernicus, the European Union’s satellite program. “That’s more carbon than the emissions of the entire country of Germany, one of the largest economies in the world,” observed James MacCarthy, a mapping expert who keeps an eye on the state of the world’s woodlands for Global Forest Watch. “And you are looking at a trend that’s increasing.”That trend stems from the fact that the world is getting warmer, especially at the ends of the earth. In 2020, the Russian town of Verkhoyansk reached 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest daily maximum temperature ever recorded north of the Arctic Circle. It was part of an arctic heatwave that would have been “almost impossible” without human-caused climate change, according to a recent attribution paper in the journal Climatic Change. The normally cold and wet Siberian taiga — or boreal forest, as we call it in North America — broiled and dried out. But that was nothing compared to this year, when the temperature rocketed past last year’s record: Verkhoyansk hit 118 degrees Fahrenheit in June. Already dry vegetation went crisp. Then came the lighting. In the old days, lightning didn’t strike much north of the Arctic Circle — it simply lacked the warm air to rub up against cold clouds, the recipe for an electrical storm. But now, summers are bringing plenty of warm air to the Arctic, and lighting strikes there have tripled in the last decade.It’s no surprise that the combination of hot, dry forests and lightning is producing a lot of fires. Total carbon emissions from wildfires worldwide was 1.4 billion tons in August, about half as much as the monthly emissions from fossil fuels.

Biden to Restore Three National Monuments in Utah and New England - — President Biden is expected to announce on Friday that he will use his executive authority to restore sweeping environmental protections to three major national monuments that had been stripped away by former President Donald J. Trump, according to two people familiar with the matter. Mr. Biden will reinstate and slightly expand the original 1.3 million acre boundaries of Bears Ears National Monument, and restore the original 1.8 million acre boundaries of Grand Staircase-Escalante, two rugged and pristine expanses in Utah that are defined by red rock canyons, rich wildlife and archaeological treasures. He will also restore protections covering the Atlantic Ocean’s first marine monument, the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts, an expanse of sea canyons and underwater mountains off the New England coast. Mr. Trump had sharply reduced the size of all three national monuments at the urging of ranchers, the fishing industry and many Republican leaders, opening them to mining, drilling and development. “The president’s protection of these three national monuments is among a series of steps the administration has taken to restore protections to some of America’s most cherished lands and waters, many of which are sacred to tribal nations,” the Biden administration is expected to say on Friday, according to an advance statement viewed by The New York Times.

Biden Administration Defends Wildlife Services’ Killing of Wolf Pups in Idaho – In a letter yesterday, the Biden administration defended the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Wildlife Services’ actions in Idaho after the agency preemptively killed eight wolf pups from Idaho’s Timberline pack in response to complaints from a rancher grazing livestock on public lands.“We are shocked that the Biden administration condones the slaughter of weeks-old wolf pups on public lands at the behest of private livestock interests,” said Talasi Brooks of Western Watersheds Project. “Wolves–especially wolf pups–pose no significant threat to livestock.”Conservation groups learned that Wildlife Services started pursuing the pack in May when an agent killed the first three pups at the densite. The agency killed five more pups over the next two months. Conservation groups urged USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack to stop Wildlife Services from slaughtering weeks-old wolves on public lands. In yesterday’s letter, Secretary Vilsack rejected the request, responding that killing wolf pups is a “humane management option.”“The mission of Wildlife Services ‘to improve the coexistence of people and wildlife’, not killing defenseless puppies in their den, especially when there are so many effective nonlethal alternatives,” said Suzanne Asha Stone, director of the International Wildlife Coexistence Network based in Idaho. “We are deeply disappointed in this administration’s response.”High school students at Timberline High School in Boise were devastated when they learned that Wildlife Services killed the Timberline pack’s pups. The school adopted the pack as its mascot when the school was founded in 1998.“It’s disheartening to see the USDA justifying killing our pack’s innocent pups as ‘humane management.’ The data from Idaho’s Wood River Wolf Project study should’ve been enough to persuade politicians of the efficacy of nonlethal methods, yet the USDA and Biden administration continue to practice inaction”, said Michel Liao, Timberline High School student. “It’s this very passivity that’s allowing people to eradicate all the pups from Timberline High School’s wolf pack this year on our public lands. It must stop.” “We tell our students that science is key in wildlife management, yet scientific evidence tells us that killing or disturbing stable wolf packs leads to more livestock conflicts, not less and it undermines our native ecosystems,” said Dick Jordan, Timberline High School science advisor. “We expect more from the Biden administration and our Department of Agriculture. Killing wolf pups is not humane by any sense of the word. And doing so while Idaho is working to eradicate its wolf population is supporting the state’s new war on wolves.” Yet, the Secretary’s letter yesterday confirms that Wildlife Services will continue these unscientific and inhumane activities.

Bigleaf maple decline tied to hotter, drier summers in Washington state - As its name suggests, the bigleaf maple tree’s massive leaves are perhaps its most distinctive quality. A native to the Pacific Northwest’s wet westside forests, these towering trees can grow leaves up to 1.5 feet across — the largest of any maple.But since 2011, scientists, concerned hikers and residents have observed more stressed and dying bigleaf maple across urban and suburban neighborhoods as well as in forested areas. Often the leaves are the first to shrivel and die, eventually leaving some trees completely bare. While forest pathologists have ruled out several specific diseases, the overall cause of the tree’s decline has stumped experts for years.A new study led by the University of Washington, in collaboration with Washington Department of Natural Resources, has found that bigleaf maple die-off in Washington is linked to hotter, drier summers that predispose this species to decline. These conditions essentially weaken the tree’s immune system, making it easier to succumb to other stressors and diseases. The findings were published Sept. 16 in the journal Forest Ecology and Management.“These trees can tolerate a lot, but once you start throwing in other factors, particularly severe summer drought as in recent years, it stresses the trees and can lead to their death,” said co-author Patrick Tobin, associate professor in the UW School of Environmental and Forest Sciences. In addition to warmer, drier weather, the researchers found that bigleaf maple are more likely to decline near roads and other development — especially in hotter urban areas. Across multiple years and sites in Western Washington, they weren’t able to find any single pest or pathogen responsible for the mass decline; rather, all signs point to climate change and human development as the drivers behind the regional die-off.

In Cities, Dangerous Heat Exposure Has Tripled Since the 1980s, With the Poor Most at Risk - Extreme urban heat exposure has dramatically increased since the early 1980s, with the total exposure tripling over the past 35 years. Today, about 1.7 billion people, nearly one-quarter of the global population, live in urban areas where extreme heat exposure has risen, as we show in a new study released Oct. 4.Most reports on urban heat exposure are based on broad estimates that overlook millions of at-risk residents. We looked closer. Using satellite estimates of where every person on the planet lived each year from 1983 to 2016, we counted the number of days per year that people in over 13,000 urban areas were exposed to extreme heat.The story that emerges is one of rapidly increasing heat exposure, with poor and marginalized people particularly at risk.Nearly two-thirds of the global increase in urban exposure to extreme heat was in sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. This is in part because of climate change and the urban heat island effect – temperatures in urban areas are higher because of the materials used to build roads and buildings. But it is also because the number of people living in dense urban areas has rapidly increased. Urban populations have ballooned, from 2 billion people living in cities and towns in 1985 to 4.4 billion today. While the patterns vary from city to city, urban population growth has been fastest among African cities where governments did not plan or build infrastructure to meet the needs of new urban residents.

Disappearing Water in a Warming Climate: A Story in Four Visuals --Water scarcity will be the biggest climate-related threat to corporate assets like factories within the next few decades, according to a recent report – but it seems to have barely registered on investors' radar.Of course, the human cost of worsening scarcity is already fully apparent; about one out of every four people in world don't have access to safely managed drinking water at home, and in just a few years about two-thirds of the global population could face water shortages.A lack of water is triggering violent conflict in places like India's Northern Plains, and creating new migrants and refugees who may contribute to further shortages wherever they resettle. Sydney will endure shortfalls within 20 years if the city continues growing at its current rate, according to a recent estimate, while residents of San Jose, California, (the "Capital of Silicon Valley") are being threatened with penalties if they don't cut their water use by 15%. Kenya's drought has been declared a national disaster.The climate crisis is often cited for these deficits, which are aggravated by demand that grows in tandem with an expanding global population. Water scarcity may therefore be a lively topic of discussion at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) slated to begin later this month.The World Economic Forum has created a visualization of some of the most glaring instances of disappearing surface water around the world. The following are four excerpts.

Water Scarcity: Lake Mead: This U.S. reservoir supplies 90% of the water for an area of Nevada that's home to rapidly expanding Las Vegas. According to a recent government projection, there's a 66% chance it will hit a "critically low" elevation by 2025. In this and other excerpts, a satellite view from 1984 to 2019 is on the left, while an augmented view on the right features a red color representing surface water loss as of 2018.
Water Scarcity: The Aral Sea: Wedged between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, this was once the world's fourth-largest inland lake. But the rivers that traditionally fed it were diverted for irrigation, and climate change has intensified local water scarcity.
Water Scarcity: Lake Poopó: Once Bolivia's second-largest lake, it has now almost entirely disappeared. Excessive use of its water sources for irrigation is largely to blame, and a warming climate threatens to undermine its recovery. However, experts believe it can still be saved.
Water Scarcity: Lake Urmia: The water level of this lake in Iran has declined dramatically in the past couple of decades, and one studysuggested that about three-fifths of its loss of inflows between 1960 and 2010 resulted from climate change (efforts like reworking irrigation systems are now underway to help restore what was once a popular tourist destination).

Butterfly Count in UK Is Lowest on Record --The results from the UK's annual Big Butterfly Count were released Thursday, and they don't look good.The country recorded its lowest number of butterflies and day-flying moths on record since the count was initiated 12 years ago. "The facts are clear. Nature is in crisis and we need urgent action, not just to prevent further species losses but to rebuild biodiversity," Julie Williams, the CEO of environmental group Butterfly Conservation, which organizes the count, said in a statement.The Big Butterfly Count involves volunteers across the country counting the number of butterflies and moths that they observe in a 15-minute window, The Guardian explained. This year's count, which took place between 16 July and 8 August, actually saw a record number of counts submitted, at 150,000. However, the average number of insects spotted per count was its lowest ever recorded at nine butterflies or moths. In 2020, that number was 11 and in 2019, it was 16."More counts are undertaken and submitted year on year, but it seems that there are fewer butterflies and moths around to be counted," Butterfly Conservation senior surveys officer Dr. Zoë Randle said in a statement.In total, volunteers counted 1,238,405 moths and butterflies, down 14 percent from the year before, The Independent reported. Especially hard-hit species included the peacock butterfly, which saw its lowest numbers since 2012 and a drop of 63 percent, and the small tortoiseshell, which declined 32 percent for its third-worst summer ever.

Toxic algae blooms are getting worse, but oversight is lacking --Poisonous algae blooms are becoming more common in the US, threatening water supplies and public health. But so far, there are few state or federal guidelines, and local water managers could use some help, a UConn-led team of researchers reports in the September 30 issue ofNature Sustainability. A massive bloom of green-blue algae in Lake Erie in 2014 forced Toledo, Ohio to warn over half a million residents not to drink or even touch their tap water. It was one of the first times thatalgae blooms made national news, but it wouldn't be the last. Since then, Salem, Oregon; Lake Hodges in California; and Lake Oneida in New York have had massive blooms. The toxins produced by such blooms can cause numbness, dizziness, convulsions, liver damage and even death.. Some of these toxins, such as liver-damaging microcystins and cylindrospermopsin, can be managed with combinations of chlorine and activated carbon. Other algae toxins like anatoxins and saxitoxins, which target the nervous system, are not easily removed by conventional water treatments. And you can't boil them out of the water. So when a big algae bloom occurs in a reservoir, water managers can struggle to make sure the water is safe.Kirchhoff and other researchers from UConn and the University of Michigan surveyed public water managers across the United States who manage systems that draw from inland lakes. Such lakes, even extremely large ones such as Lake Erie, are warming and may become more prone to algae blooms due to climate change.More than half the water managers surveyed said their system had experienced a bloom of harmful algae at least once. Almost a third of the managers said they experienced them at least once a year, and 60% of those who'd had a bloom said they believed the problem was getting worse. Most water managers said they relied on their state agencies and professional associations for advice on how to handle harmful algae blooms in the water supply.Unfortunately, a lot of state agencies don't have that much to offer on the problem. States take their cues from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and currently EPA doesn't regulate algae toxins under the Safe Drinking Water Act. Through the Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Program, EPA did collect data from the treated water of a random sample of water systems across the US a few years ago, and the results showed limited occurrence of toxins in public water supplies.

WHO Endorses ‘Breakthrough’ Childhood Vaccine For Malaria - The fight against malaria, one of the world’s worst diseases for decades, is likely to get much easier as the World Health Organization has endorsed the wide use of a malaria vaccine developed by GlaxoSmithKline, the first ever to win such approval. The vaccine will be recommended for children in sub-Saharan Africa and other high-risk areas as a four-dose schedule starting at age 5 months.Malaria is a mosquitoborne infection caused by at least five species of thePlasmodium parasite. Most infections are from Plasmodium falciparum andPlasmodium vivax, with the former causing most cases in Africa. Early symptoms of malaria tend to be mild and include fever, headache, and chills, but P. falciparum malaria can lead to severe organ damage and death if left untreated, especially in younger children.Malaria cases and deaths have declined in recent decades, thanks to dedicated mosquito control and treatment programs. But there were still 229 million cases estimated worldwide in 2019, along with around 400,000 deaths—a toll second only to tuberculosis for a single infectious disease (covid-19 has since overtaken malaria and likely TB in the past two years). Precarious progress against malaria has been threatened further by the emergence of insecticide resistance among female Anopheles mosquitoes, the vectors of the disease. The continued threat of malaria has made the prospect of a childhood vaccine all the more tantalizing. But developing a vaccine against a complex organism like a parasite has proven to be much more difficult than it has been for simpler bacteria and viruses, and for decades, scientists have come up short. Until now, it seems. Despite the good news, GlaxoSmithKline’s vaccine, which is currently code-named RTS,S/AS01 but will be branded as Mosquirix, is only modestly effective. In the clinical trials evaluated for WHO approval, it was found to prevent around half of severe cases caused by P. falciparum malaria, compared to the control group. But this level of efficacy was only seen in the first year of vaccination, and by the fourth year, protection had waned to very low levels. At roughly 55% efficacy, the vaccine meets the bare minimum for WHO endorsement.

U.S. warns Mexico of massive sewage spill into the Rio Grande | KXAN Austin -– The U.S. Section of the International Boundary & Water Commission has notified Mexico about a major sewage spill into shared waters of the Rio Grande.Between 3 million and 6 million gallons per day – 150 million gallons since Aug. 15 – have been leaking from broken pipes in West El Paso into the Rio Grande. The effluent is going into the river to prevent it from getting to residential areas and businesses near Doniphan and Sunland Park drives. Sewage then is routed to canals in El Paso and into a treatment plant several miles downstream.“The water that is going into the Rio Grande is downstream of the location where Mexico gets the water under the (U.S.-Mexico) treaty. But, yes, sewage flows into the Rio Grande are entering the international reach of the river,” the IBWC said in a statement to Border Report.Sewage flows into rivers and other bodies of water can expose humans who wade or swim in them to dangerous pathogens and cause intestinal infections, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other health organizations.The Rio Grande cuts across El Paso and Juarez, Mexico, a city of 1.5 million people; many migrants who approach the border wall to enter the United States surreptitiously first must cross the river.The commission says Mexico has asked to be kept informed about the leakage and actions being taken to alleviate the problem. The U.S. Border Patrol has also been alerted.El Paso Water utility officials attribute the sewage leak to corrosion in their water pipes.“This is corrosion driven. It’s not just one break, it’s a series of breaks. The pipe is so badly corroded that we can’t fix it. When we go to fix it, we cause more damage than exists at present. So, we’re concentrating on replacement,” El Paso Water President and CEO John E. Balliew told the El Paso City Council this week.

14 percent of world's coral reefs destroyed in a decade: research -- A global analysis released on Tuesday found that 14 percent of the world's coral reefs were lost between 2009 and 2018, an amount greater than all the coral currently living in Australia's reefs.The report was released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and partners including the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN). In "Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2020," the GCRMN noted that coral reef populations had actually recovered somewhat following the first mass coral bleaching in 1998. In the decade that followed, reefs were able to recover to pre-1998 levels. However, a progressive loss of coral cover was observed between 2009 and 2018, according to the report. As the monitoring network noted, although coral reefs cover only 0.2 percent of the seafloor, they are responsible for supporting at least 25 percent of marine life. The value of products and services provided by coral reefs is estimated to be around $2.7 trillion per year. "Maintaining the integrity and resilience of coral reef ecosystems is essential for the wellbeing of tropical coastal communities worldwide, and a critical part of the solution for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," the GCRMN wrote in its report. Coral bleaching occurs when environmental conditions surrounding coral change. One example is when temperatures drastically rise or fall, coral will release symbiotic algae living inside their tissue, causing the coral to become white. Coral bleaching does not directly cause them to die, but does place a higher degree of stress on the organisms.

Italy breaks national 6-hour rainfall record with 496 mm (19.5 inches) (videos) --A weather station in Cairo Montenotte, Province of Savona in the NW Italian region of Liguria, recorded 496 mm (19.5 inches) of rain in just 6 hours on October 4, 2021, breaking the country's 6-hour rainfall record of 472 mm (18.6 inches) set in 2011. While rain was recorded across the country yesterday, the storm unloaded most of its power in the Savona area. Agenzia Regionale Protezione Ambiente Ligure (ARPAL) reported 1-hour rainfall totals of 145.2 mm (5.7 inches) in Cairo Montenotte, 178.2 mm (7 inches) in Urbe and 181 mm (7.1 inches) in Vicomorasso - a new national record. Furthermore, figures from ARPAL show the station at Rossiglione recorded more than 900 mm (35.4 inches) of rain in 24 hours.¹President of Liguria Giovanni Toti said the situation in the region was critical and that it could worsen, especially given the extreme levels of rainfall.The rain caused landslides and severe flooding, leading to road and highway closures, and temporarily halting trains between the Ligurian coastal towns of Savona and Turin.²Widespread flooding was reported in the Pontinvrea area where the Erro River overflowed, leaving the area underwater.³In addition to the Erro River in Pontinvrea, the Bormida River in Cairo Montenotte also overflew, as well as Letimbro in the city of Savona.Intense rain also hit other parts of Italy, especially the north, and a red alert for bad weather was declared in Piedmont, which borders Liguria to the northeast."A cold front loaded with rain and thunderstorms will affect Italy for several days this week," iLMeteo.it chief Antonio Sanò said, adding that more flooding can be expected in the north, especially in the Genoa area.⁴

Italy sets new European 12-hour rainfall record - A severe storm stalled over NW Italy on October 4, 2021, dumping record-breaking rain and causing floods and landslides. In addition, the storm produced more than half a million lightning strikes within 48 hours.The day started with 496 mm (19.5 inches) of rain in just 6 hours registered in Cairo Montenotte, Province of Savona, Liguria, breaking the country's 6-hour rainfall record of 472 mm (18.6 inches) set in 2011.¹In just 12 hours, the same storm system dropped 740.6 mm (29.1 inches) of rain in Rossiglione, 13 km (22 miles) E of Cairo Montenotte, in the Province of Genova, Liguria, setting a new European 12-hour rainfall record. That's more than half of the average rainfall the region gets in a year -- 1 270 mm (50 inches). Agenzia Regionale Protezione Ambiente Ligure (ARPAL) reported 1-hour rainfall totals of 145.2 mm (5.7 inches) in Cairo Montenotte, 178.2 mm (7 inches) in Urbe and 181 mm (7.1 inches) in Vicomorasso - a new national record. Furthermore, figures from ARPAL show the station at Rossiglione recorded more than 900 mm (35.4 inches) of rain in 24 hours.²All that rain caused numerous rivers to overflow and produced traffic-disrupting landslides. While authorities said they responded to many calls for help, including rescue operations, there are no reports of casualties.

Flash floods hit Marseille after 2 months' worth of rain overnight, France (videos) Flash floods hit parts of the city of Marseille in southern France on October 4, 2021, after 173 mm (6.8 inches) of rainfall fell overnight, with most of it in the space of 2 hours. The amount represents 2 months' worth of the city's average October rainfall. Travel was disrupted in the region and a number of train services were suspended.Meteo France warned of the risk of significant flooding along the banks of Huveaune River, which runs through Marseille, and urged locals to be vigilant as storms were expected to last into the night.Some of the residents living on the banks of the river in the Saint-Loup district were evacuated ahead of the storms.The worst affected were parts of eastern Marseille, including the areas of Valmante, Les Olives, La Valentine and La Pomme.Marseille Mayor Benoit Payan ordered residents to stay at home, amid concerns that further rainfall may intensify flooding.Heavy rains also hit central parts of the country on October 3, with 150 and 300 mm (5.9 - 11.8 inches) of rain in 24 hours over Cevennes, and up to 458.5 mm (18 inches) in Villefort, Lozere -- representing about 3 to 4 months of rain.

Flash flooding claims four lives in Alabama - Alabama saw heavy rains this week which triggered flash flooding in multiple communities, leaving entire areas only accessible via wading the waters or boat. The storm, which hit Wednesday through Thursday is reported to have claimed the lives of at least four people, including one child. Dozens of people were left stranded. The National Weather Service (NWS) reported rainfall having reached 13 inches and that more drenching rainfalls are to come. The flooding resulting from the heavy rains has affected communities across the state in various ways: along the coast, the rainfall proved too much for the underground network of pipes, causing sewage to leak out from the pipes; in East Brewton, the waters of Murder Creek broke through the doors of a Piggly Wiggly grocery store, leaving the surrounding community without their main source of food. The rising water levels forced the closure of schools and caused portions of roads to collapse. Moreover, the Birmingham-Hoover Metropolitan Area remained under a flash flood watch through Thursday. Heavy rain also affected the panhandle of Florida and other southern states, like Georgia, Tennessee and western South Carolina through Friday. As the flood waters swept away vehicles and other debris, a 4-year-old girl and an 18-year-old woman perished in separate incidents, according to Marshall County Coroner Cody Nugent, when their vehicles were overtaken by rushing waters in northeast Alabama. Search-and-rescue operatives also found the bodies of a couple, both 23, inside a car that had been swept away. “Normally it’s just a trickle. It was raging,” Shelby County Coroner Lina Evans said of the creek which swallowed their vehicle. Evans identified the victims as Myles Jared Butler and Latin Marie Hill of Hoover, a southern suburb of Birmingham. Some of the worst reported flooding hit the city of Pelham, just south of Hoover, where flood waters measured 40 inches. Eighty-two people were rescued from their homes, along with approximately 15 pulled from vehicles. More than 100 rescuers were on the scene, with 16 boats assisting in the rescues.

The price of living near the shore is already high. It’s about to go through the roof. - As FEMA prepares to remove subsidies from its flood insurance, a new assessment says 8 million homeowners in landlocked states are at risk of serious flooding because of climate change. — When Brian and Susan Gary settled down on this exclusive island spit a decade ago, climate scientists were already sounding an alarm: Global temperatures were warming, sea levels were rising and damaging floodwaters were creeping ever closer to homes. The Garys had joined 8 million Americans who moved to counties along the U.S. coast between 2000 and 2017, lured by the sun, the sea and heavily subsidized government flood insurance that made the cost of protecting their homes much less expensive, despite the risk of living in a flood zone near a vast body of water. But a reckoning is coming. On Friday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency will incorporate climate risk into the cost of flood insurance for the first time, dramatically increasing the price for some new home buyers. Next April, most current policyholders will see their premiums go up and continue to rise by 18 percent per year for the next 20 years.The price hike under a new assessment, Risk Rating 2.0, will more accurately reflect the threat of flooding in a changing climate, federal officials say.Most homeowners will see modest increases starting at $120 per year in addition to what they already pay, and a few will see their insurance costs decrease. But wealthy customers with high-value homes will see their costs skyrocket by as much as $12,000 for one year. About 3,200 property owners — mostly in Florida, Texas, New Jersey and New York — fall in that category.Like the climate threat, the cost increase will reach far beyond the coast. Homeowners in inland states such as Iowa, Missouri and Nebraska, where creeks, streams and rivers overflow during heavy rains, will also see price increases in their government-backed flood insurance.

Tropical Cyclone "Shaheen-Gulab" makes historic landfall in Oman - (videos) Tropical Cyclone "Shaheen-Gulab" made landfall between Al Masnaah and Al-Suwaiq, Oman, about 80 km (50 miles) WNW of the capital city of Muscat on October 3, 2021, with maximum sustained winds between 120 and 150 km/h (75 - 93 mph). Shaheen brought extremely heavy rains and waves up to 10 m (32 feet). Tropical cyclones have previously hit northern Oman, but none came as far west as this one.Schools have been closed, flights suspended and thousands of people evacuated from coastal areas in Oman ahead of the storm. However, three people, including one child, died due to landslides and flooding ahead of landfall.At least 6 people died in Iran, where infrastructure, including electrical facilities and roads, was damaged in Chabahar, Sistan-Baluchestan Province.¹Shaheen has brought torrential rains and flash flooding to a desert climate, in some cases dumping a year’s worth of rain or more in a single day.²Al Amarat in eastern Muscat received 136.6 mm (5.38 inches) of rain in the 24 hours to 12:00 UTC on October 3, while Muscat’s Seeb International Airport recorded 73 mm (2.87 inches) in the 24 hours to 15:00 UTC. The average October rainfall for Muscat is 0.8 millimeters (0.03 inches), and the average yearly rainfall is 89.7 mm (3.59 inches).Total rainfall brought by the cyclone was expected to reach more than 500 mm (20 inches) in parts of the region. While tropical cyclones have hit Oman previously, none came as far west as Shaheen-Gulab. Another unique thing about Shaheen is that it crossed the Gulf of Oman from northeast to southwest. All other cyclones affecting the northern coast of Oman arrived from the south rather than from the gulf itself.²

Shaheen pushes onshore as first tropical cyclone on record in far north Oman » Cyclone Shaheen made weather history on Sunday evening, October 3, as it came onshore between Al Masnaah and Al-Suwaiq, Oman, about 50 miles west-northwest of the capital city of Muscat. The cyclone weakened from minimal Category 1 strength just before landfall, arriving with top sustained winds of 63 to 73 mph,according to the state news agency. At least three deaths have been attributed to Shaheen, according to the Muscat Daily – a child who drowned in Al Amarat and two people killed in a mudslide in an industrial area of Muscat.Shaheen has brought torrential rains and flash flooding to a desert climate, in some cases dumping a year’s worth of rain or more in a single day. Al Amarat, on the east side of the city of Muscat, received 136.6 millimeters (5.38 inches) of rain in the 24 hours ending at 8 a.m. EDT Sunday. Muscat’s Seeb International Airport recorded 73 millimeters (2.87 inches) in the 24 hours ending at 11 a.m. EDT Sunday. The average October rainfall for Muscat is 0.8 millimeters (0.03 inches), and the average yearly rainfall is 89.7 millimeters (3.59 inches). Suwaiq, located near the coast in the strong right-front quadrant of Shaheen’s eyewall,recorded sustained winds of 52 mph at 12:08 p.m. EDT Sunday. Sustained winds of 36 mph and gusts to 51 mph were reported at Muscat International Airport at 5:50 a.m. Sunday as Shaheen approached.Activity came to a standstill across Oman as a two-day national holiday was decreed for Sunday and Monday with the approach of Shaheen. Shaheen is a relatively small tropical cyclone, its landfall well placed to keep the strongest winds away from the largest cities of northern Oman. The storm also dove toward the southwest sooner than predicted, reducing its time over the warm waters of the Gulf of Oman. Hurricane-force winds were limited to a radius of fewer than 20 miles from the center.Shaheen will weaken rapidly as it moves inland, but as its circulation pushes southwest, it will encounter the high terrain of the Al Hajar Mountains, which will squeeze out torrential rains. Oman’s National Multi Hazard Early Warning Center warned of the potential for Shaheen to bring 200 to 500 millimeters of rain (8 to 20 inches).The Joint Typhoon Warning Center used the name Cyclone Shaheen-Gulab for the storm, alluding to its origins in the Bay of Bengal a week ago as Cyclone Gulab. At least 20 deaths in India are being blamed on Gulab, which regrouped in the Arabian Sea on Thursday and was renamed Cyclone Shaheen by the India Meteorological Department.

4 000 homes uninhabitable after M6.0 earthquake hit Crete, Greece -Nearly 4 000 homes have been declared uninhabitable after shallow M6.0 (M5.8) earthquake hit Crete, Greece at 06:17 UTC on September 27, 2021.¹By Wednesday, October 6, engineering teams from the Ministry of Infrastructure had surveyed a total of 8 540 buildings, including 7 015 residences, of which 3 906 or 56% have been declared uninhabitable.In addition, 345 or 52% of business premises examined are unstable as well as over 4 in 5 or 82% of the sheds and farm buildings inspected.²From September 27 to October 7, EMSC registered a total of 375 earthquakes in the area affected by the M6.0, with 7 of them today.

Erupting Spanish volcano turns 'more aggressive': officials - An erupting volcano on a Spanish island off northwest Africa blew open two more fissures on its cone Friday that belched forth lava, with authorities reporting "intense" activity in the area. The new fissures, about 15 meters (50 feet) apart, sent streaks of fiery red and orange molten rock down toward the sea, parallel to an earlier flow that reached the Atlantic Ocean earlier this week. The volcano was "much more aggressive," almost two weeks after it erupted on the island of La Palma, said Miguel Ángel Morcuende, technical director of the Canary Islands' emergency volcano response department. Overnight, scientists recorded eight new earthquakes up to magnitude 3.5. The eruption was sending gas and ash up to 6,000 meters (almost 20,000 feet) into the air, officials said. The prompt evacuation of more than 6,000 people since the Sept. 19 eruption helped prevent casualties. A new area of solidified lava where the molten rock is flowing into the sea extends over more than 20 hectares (50 acres). Officials were monitoring air quality along the shoreline. Sulfur dioxide levels in the area rose but did not represent a health threat, La Palma's government said. However, it advised local residents to stay indoors. It also recommended that people on the island wear face masks and eye protection against heavy falls of volcanic ash. The volcano has so far emitted some 80 million cubic meters of molten rock, scientists estimate—more than double the amount in the island's last eruption, in 1971.The lava has so far destroyed or partially destroyed more than 1,000 buildings, including homes and farming infrastructure, and entombed around 709 hectares (1,750 acres).La Palma, home to about 85,000 people who live mostly from fruit farming and tourism, is part of the volcanic Canary Islands, an archipelago off northwest Africa that is part of Spain's territory.The island is roughly 35 kilometers (22 miles) long and 20 kilometers (12 miles) wide at its broadest point. Life has continued as usual on most of the island while the volcano is active.

Explosive activity at Cumbre Vieja with falling pyroclasts and volcanic bombs, La Palma - Today's activity at La Palma's Cumbre Vieja volcano, Canary Islands is explosive with falling pyroclasts and volcanic bombs, INVOLCAN reports. 1 045 buildings have been destroyed by lava since the start of the eruption.The total area affected by lava reached 413.38 ha (1 021 acres) with a perimeter of 36.3 km (22.5 miles) and a maximum width of 1 250 m (4 101 feet) on October 5.¹The lava platform (Fajana) now occupies an area of 32.7 ha (80 acres) and it keeps increasing.In addition, it's likely it will soon connect with the one created during the eruption in 1949, as illustrated in the image below, courtesy of Antonio Aretxabala.Several active centers are observed inside the main crater, as well as two others located on the northwest side of the cone. The partial crater collapse on October 3 located in the northwest of the side of the cone contributed to the production of very fluid lava.The height of the gas and ash column rose to 4.5 km (14 700 feet) on October 4.The seismicity has increased slightly and is occurring at deep levels of the Earth's crust, which suggests a new mouth could open. With only little more than two weeks of activity, the eruption is significantly bigger than the two previous eruptions on the island during the past 100 years, Dr. Tom Pfeiffer of Volcano Discovery noted.²"It was estimated that the eruption has so far emitted 250 000 tons of sulfur dioxide (SO₂). The plume has been hovering around the Canary Islands, North Africa, the Mediterranean, parts of it drifted over the Atlantic, even reaching the Caribbean to the west and the Arctic in the north."

Lava continues to erupt from multiple vents at Kilauea, sulfur dioxide emissions increase, Hawaii -- Lava continues to erupt from multiple vents along the floor and western wall of Kilauea's Halemaʻumaʻu crater since September 29, 2021. As of October 3, 2021, all lava activity is confined within Halemaʻumaʻu in Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park. Seismicity and volcanic gas emission rates remain elevated. Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission rates remain high and were approximately 14 750 tonnes per day on October 2, 2021, which is higher than the previous day. Seismicity is elevated but stable while summit tiltmeters continue to record deflationary tilt, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) noted in the latest update for the volcano.¹In 24 hours to 19:59 UTC on October 3, the lava lake level has risen over 1 m (3.3 feet). In total, the lava lake surface has risen approximately 27 m (89 feet) since the eruption started.The west vent continues to be the most vigorous source, with sustained lava fountain heights of 10 - 15 m (33 - 49 feet). The lava lake has risen to the base of the west vent, around which a cone is being built. Other vents including a 35 m (115 feet) long fissure continue to be active in the central and southern parts of the lake, with sustained lava fountain heights of 5 - 10 m (16 - 33 feet). Due to the location of vents, the lava lake is not level across its surface. As of October 3, the west end of the lake is 1 - 2 m (3.3 - 6.6 feet) higher than the east end, and the south end is approximately 1 meter (3.3 feet) higher than the north end. Localized and discontinuous crustal foundering continues (a process by which cool lava crust on the surface of the lava lake is overridden by less-dense liquid from below causing the crust to sink into the underlying lake lava). High levels of volcanic gas are the primary hazard of concern, as this hazard can have far-reaching effects downwind. Large amounts of volcanic gas - primarily water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) - are continuously released during the eruptions of Kīlauea Volcano. As SO2 is released from the summit, it reacts in the atmosphere to create the visible haze known as vog (volcanic smog) that has been observed downwind of Kīlauea. Vog creates the potential for airborne health hazards to residents and visitors, damages agricultural crops and other plants, and affects livestock. Additional hazards include Pele's hair and other lightweight volcanic glass fragments from the lava fountains that will fall downwind of the fissure vents and dust the ground within a few hundred meters of the vent (s). Strong winds may waft lighter particles to greater distances.

Major explosion at Stromboli volcano, significant amount of pyroclastic material, Italy --A major explosion took place at Stromboli volcano, Italy at 14:17 UTC on October 6, 2021. The explosion ejected a significant amount of coarse pyroclastic material that surpassed the crater terrace, affecting the area of Pizzo Sopra la Fossa and Sciara del Fuoco, and rolling all the way to the coastline.¹The eruption produced a cloud of ash that rapidly dispersed in the NE direction. In addition, a small lava overflow was observed in the North crater area.In conjunction with the major explosion, a seismic event far above average amplitude has been recorded.The average tremor size increased rapidly and 14:17 UTC and reached high values. No significant changes in soil deformation have been detected.

Asteroid 2021 TX flew past Earth at 0.1 LD -- A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2021 TX flew past Earth at 21:29 UTC on October 1, 2021, at a distance of 0.11 LD / 0.00028 AU (41 890 km / 26 030 miles) from the center of our planet. This is the 95^th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year.2021 TX was first observed at Pan-STARRS 2, Haleakala on October 2, 2021, one day after it made its close approach. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 1.5 and 3.4 m (4.9 - 11.1 feet).

The Earth is less bright than it used to be because there are fewer clouds in the air, a study found -- The Earth is bouncing back less light into space because its cloud coverage isn't what it used to be, a study found. This is due to the cloud coverage being reduced due to a fluctuation in ocean temperatures, the researchers said.Philip Goode, a researcher at New Jersey Institute of Technology, and a lead author on the study, described his findings to CNN."Off the west coast of the Americas, the low-lying clouds were burned away and more sunlight came in, so the way we saw it was, the reflectance of the Earth had dropped," he said. The study looked at a phenomenon called "earthshine." The same way that the moon bounces back the sunlight, which gives it that silver-gray look in the night sky, the Earth reflects about 30% of the sunlight, it receives which is why it looks like a blue marble from space. Scientists are able to measure the reflection of the Earth on the dark side of the moon, which is called earthshine. The Earth's shine on the moon has been more or less constant over the past 17 years. "We were sort of reluctant to do the last three years of data because it looked the same," Goode told CNN. But when Goode and his colleagues did look, "the reflectance had...gone down noticeably," he told CNN. So much so that the scientists at the Big Bear Solar Observatory in California, which has been monitoring the earthshine since the mid-90s, thought they had made a mistake."We redid it several times and it turns out it was correct," Goode said. The scientists found that the Earth's capacity to reflect sunlight — a measurable trait called its "albedo" — has gone down by 0.5 watts per square meter.That means the Earth is getting 0.5% more sunlight compared to levels in the first decade of the 2000s, per CNN, which is "climatologically significant," the scientists said in the study.The findings were published in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters on August 29. The scientists attribute the loss of albedo to there being fewer clouds in the atmosphere to bounce back the light into space.

Climate Change Is Melting Russia’s Permafrost—and Challenging Its Oil Economy – WSJ —Thawing earth once thought to be permanently frozen is springing to life and threatening a crucial chunk of Russia’s economy.The melting of the thick layer of the earth known as permafrost is a result of climate change, according to scientists and Russia government research. Two-thirds of the country sits on such soil, including much of its oil and gas infrastructure. Since 1976, Russia’s average temperature has risen 0.92 degree Fahrenheit per decade, or 2½ times the global pace, government data shows.Mines and plants are experiencing increasing corrosion leaks and cracks, stemming in large part from defrosting ground. In the pipeline industry, braces and other mechanisms, previously anchored into permafrost, often corrode, twist and bend when the earth below changes, according to ecologists and other researchers. Companies are pouring millions of dollars into reinforcing buildings, monitoring soil temperatures and installing high-tech cooling systems.The phenomenon was a contributor to the largest ever spill in the polar Arctic in spring 2020, when damage to a diesel fuel storage tank in remote Siberia caused 20,000 tons of fuel to leak.After the spill, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a national state of emergency and the country’s Prosecutor General ordered regional prosecutors to inspect all hazardous facilities built on permafrost. Russia’s Investigative Committee, the nation’s main investigations agency, later blamed the incident on negligence and poor maintenance. Officials at the Norilsk Nickel mining company that operates the installation—along with some government scientists and elected officials—said thawing permafrost caused the failure of posts supporting the basement where the storage tank lay.“In the near past, everybody believed that permafrost would have an impact on infrastructure by the end of the century. Now we know we don’t have much time,” said Vladimir Romanovsky, professor of geophysics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. “Oil, gas, villages—it’s all on the line.”Russian economic officials and scientists estimate that thawing permafrost could affect more than a fifth of Russian infrastructure. The economy stands to lose more than $68 billion by 2050, a government minister said in May. The government says that 40% of buildings and infrastructure facilities in permafrost-covered areas have already been damaged. Aging Russian buildings and equipment, much dating to the Cold War, don’t help matters. “We must be prepared for this,” said Mr. Putin during a nationwide address in June. Last month, he ordered the creation of a national permafrost monitoring system to analyze data from 140 stations.In Yakutsk, capital of the Northeast region of Yakutia, residents describe water pipes that regularly burst, creating fissures and holes in buildings. Roads buckle as moisture seeps in from below, leading to cracks in the asphalt. Trains run at slower speeds because of deformed tracks, local engineers said. Flooding was behind the resettlement of at least one waterlogged village from the basin of the remote Kolyma River. Across the countryside, the effect of permafrost is plain to see. Thawing ice has transformed farmland into swamps and rivers swell in springtime with up to 30% more runoff compared with the 1980s, local scientists said. In villages, locals who previously stored meat and other perishables in cellars dug deep into the ground now must use ordinary deep freezers because of waterlogged subsoil.

South Pole registers coldest winter on record -A weather station at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station registered record cold winter temperatures this season (April - September), averaging at -61.1 °C (-77.9 °F) and breaking the previous record set in 1976 at -60.6 °C (-77 °F). Weather records date back to 1957.The average temperature at the station was 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) colder than the most recent 30-year average.¹According to University of Wisconsin researcher Matthew Lazzara, an expert on observing the meteorology and climate of Antarctica, it was around -73.3 °C (-100 °F) at the station on numerous occasions this winter.²On September 30, the temperature at Russia’s Vostok Station dropped to -79.3 °C (-110.9 °C), just short of the world record for the lowest temperature in October, which is -80 °C (-112 °F). The all-time world record is -89.2 °C (-128.6 °F), registered at Vostok Station on July 21, 1983.³The extreme cold the region experienced this year pushed Antarctica's sea ice levels to their 5^th highest level on record.Additionally, according to a new paper by Zhu et al., a cooling trend dominates East Antarctica and West Antarctica, while a warming trend exists in the Antarctic Peninsula except during austral summer.^{4, 5}

Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for pioneering research in climate change and chaos theory - The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has awarded this year’s Nobel Prize in Physics for work on Earth’s climate and the theory of chaos and disordered systems. The first half of the prize was given jointly to Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann for their foundational work on our atmosphere and how humanity changes it. The second half of the prize was granted to Giorgio Parisi for his contributions toward understanding chaos theory, the underlying laws governing seemingly random phenomena.The connection between the two halves of the award is the “complexity of physical systems,” as explained in the prize’s scientific background. “[F]rom the largest scales experienced by humans” down to “microscopic structure and dynamics,” there are many processes that have numerous interacting parts that have proven difficult to describe mathematically. This year’s Nobel celebrates key milestones in understanding such systems, including modeling the links between weather and climate and understanding the underlying patterns in disordered molecular structures.The basic feature of complex systems is that even tiny changes in the initial conditions over time produce very different results. Small differences in the temperature, pressure or humidity, for example, can cause very different weather patterns to emerge. Early computer simulations that looked at this question were done in the 1960s by mathematician Edward Lorenz, who observed that weather models changed drastically when the initial conditions were rounded from 0.506127 to just 0.506. The results produced in each scenario were completely different.Lorenz summarized this as, “Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.” In popular culture, this is often referred to as the butterfly effect. The term was highlighted in a question asked by meteorologist Philip Merrilees in 1972, “Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?” Continuing the metaphor, is the tiny gust of wind from the flap of a butterfly’s wings one of the many interconnected events that ultimately leads to a tornado? Is the event part of a cascade that leads to large-scale alterations of a weather system? And if a tornado still formed without the wing flap, how would its trajectory change?

What’s the Least Bad Way to Cool the Planet? - How to cool the planet? The energy infrastructure that powers our civilization must be rebuilt, replacing fossil fuels with carbon-free sources such as solar or nuclear. But even then, zeroing out emissions will not cool the planet. This is a direct consequence of the single most important fact about climate change: Warming is proportional to the cumulative emissions over the industrial era. Eliminating emissions by about 2050 is a difficult but achievable goal. Suppose it is met. Average temperatures will stop increasing when emissions stop, but cooling will take thousands of years as greenhouse gases slowly dissipate from the atmosphere. Because the world will be a lot hotter by the time emissions reach zero, heat waves and storms will be worse than they are today. And while the heat will stop getting worse, sea level will continue to rise for centuries as polar ice melts in a warmer world. This July was the hottest month ever recorded, but it is likely to be one of the coolest Julys for centuries after emissions reach zero. Stopping emissions stops making the climate worse. But repairing the damage, insofar as repair is possible, will require more than emissions cuts. To cool the planet in this century, humans must either remove carbon from the air or use solar geoengineering, a temporary measure that may reduce peak temperatures, extreme storms and other climatic changes. Humans might make the planet Earth more reflective by adding tiny sulfuric acid droplets to the stratosphere from aircraft, whitening low-level clouds over the ocean by spraying sea salt into the air or by other interventions. Yes, this is what it comes down to: carbon removal or solar geoengineering or both. At least one of them is required to cool the planet this century. There are no other options. Carbon removal would no doubt trounce geoengineering in a straw poll of climate experts. Removal is riding a wave of support among centrist environmental groups, governments and industry. Solar geoengineering is seen as such a desperate gamble that it was dropped from the important “summary for policymakers” in the United Nations’ latest climate report. Yet if I were asked which method could cut midcentury temperatures with the least environmental risk, I would say geoengineering.

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Will Not Save The EARTH -Recently, carbon capture has been getting a lot of attention. It is a centerpiece of the oil and gas industry’s greenwashing efforts, the White House includes it as part of its climate agenda, and even some progressive media figures have promoted carbon capture and encouraged the left to embrace it as a so-called solution.But as attractive as it may sound in theory, there are many good reasons to reject this failed energy-intensive so-called solution. Carbon capture will lock us into decades more of fossil fuels, is not feasible at scale, and diverts money and political attention from the real, bold solutions we need. Here are five reasons embracing carbon capture is a fool’s errand.

1. Carbon Capture is an Expensive Failure. After billions of dollars in public and private investments over decades, there are no carbon capture success stories — only colossal failures. One of the largest was the Petra Nova coal plant in Texas, once the poster child for CO2 removal. But the plant consistently underperformed, before it finally closed for good last year. Another high-profile example — the San Juan Generating Station in New Mexico, touted as the largest capture project in the world — may already be headed to a similar fate.
2. Carbon Capture is Energy Intensive; Running a carbon capture system is incredibly energy-intensive — it essentially requires building a new power plant to run the system, which would create another new source of air and carbon pollution. That undermines the whole goal of capturing carbon in the first place. While our country emits roughly 5 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere every year, removing 1 billion tons of that through direct air capture would require nearly the entire electricity output of the United States.
3. Carbon Capture Actually Increases Emissions.A recent review of relevant research shows that due to the large amount of energy required to power carbon capture and the life cycle of fossil fuels, carbon capture in this country has actually put more CO2 into the atmosphere than it has removed.
4. Storage Presents Significant Risks. There are also other significant risks related to the disposal and storage of carbon. Well failure during injection or a blowout could result in a release of large amounts of CO2; storage locations can leak CO2, as they are located close to fossil fuel reservoirs, where oil and gas wellbores provide a pathway for CO2 to escape to the surface. Those storage leaks could contaminate groundwater and soil; and injection of CO2 could cause earthquakes, which have already been measured at injection sites.
5. Carbon Capture Trades Off with Other Critical Solutions.Wishful thinking about carbon capture isn’t just an ineffective response to the climate crisis — it’s dangerous. We have a small window where we can take the bold action needed to avert runaway climate chaos; counting on carbon capture’s effectiveness squanders the opportunity to enact actual emissions reductions (a phenomenon known as “mitigation deterrence”).

Vehicle emissions in Wisconsin declined temporarily during COVID-19 shutdowns -A new report from state environmental regulators found stay-at-home orders during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted noticeable declines in air pollution in Wisconsin last year. The reductions were short-lived, but long-term trends show air quality is improving across the state.A snapshot of preliminary data from a Milwaukee monitoring site along Interstate-94 showed a drop in daily peaks of pollutants like nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide from vehicle emissions, according to the latest report on Wisconsin air quality trends."That was where we saw the most significant reduction, and, honestly, it was pretty temporary," said Katie Praedel, air monitoring section chief for the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources.The DNR found nitrogen dioxide emissions, a forerunner of ozone pollution, dropped 14 percent at that one site compared to the same timeframe in 2019.Power plant and industry emissions didn't see a steep drop or any decline during stay-at-home orders. The findings are consistent with what one would expect to see from people traveling less during the pandemic, said Tracey Holloway, professor with the Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison."They did not see that much of a change in pollution from power plants and some industries, and that also is consistent because we're still using electricity," said Holloway. "We're still running our air conditioners and the kind of things that drive a lot of demand for electricity were still happening."

Midwest Carbon Express: Boone County farmers decry proposed pipeline --An informational meeting ended with a call for Boone County farmers to band together in refusing easement offers to make way for a proposed 2,000-mile carbon capture pipeline Monday.Summit Carbon Solutions wants to build a $4.5 billion pipeline that would permanently sequester biofuels plants' carbon emissions. Company officials tout the project's potential to create 14,000-17,000 jobs and sequester carbon equivalent to 2.6 million vehicles' emissions annually.But the company's representatives were met with resistance at both Monday's presentation, which was held at Boone's History Center and attended by about 50 of the area's residents, and at a meeting on the project in Ames last month, where many with land along the pipeline's proposed route took issue with the project. For Tom Kauffman, who owns land in Boone and Wright counties, the route would take the pipeline straight through his drainage tiles, which were installed in the last five years. "It's gonna screw up everything," he said outside the meeting.The pipeline, which has been dubbed the Midwest Carbon Express, would connect to 12 Iowa ethanol plants and pass through four other states: Nebraska, Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota. The company claims the pipeline would bring these plants down to net-zero emissions. The project would require land easements and potentially eminent domain, impacting many agricultural properties. Monday's meeting was one of the dozens planned to be held in the 30 Iowa counties the pipeline would pass through. Last month, the same presentation was given at the Gateway Conference Center in Ames to inform Story County stakeholders.Among residents' criticisms of the project Monday — which included safety and environmental concerns, as well as potential conflicts of interest involving appointees of former Gov. Terry Branstad — were farmers' fears that the project would be a repeat of the aftermath of the Dakota Access Pipeline, which left long-term impacts on agricultural land. Some of those impacted by the Dakota Access Pipeline, like Keith Puntenney of Boone, said they could be impacted by the Summit pipeline, too."You can't put topsoil back once you take it off," Puntenney said at Monday's meeting. "That's the problem. That's the problem with what's going on in here."

Civil Rights Groups in North Carolina Say ‘Biogas’ From Hog Waste Will Harm Communities of Color - - Two North Carolina civil rights organizations have asked the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to investigate the approval by state environmental regulators of a plan to produce “biogas” from vast waste lagoons at large industrial hog operations despite what they say is the likelihood that the project will increase air and water pollution. In a complaint filed Tuesday by the Southern Environmental Law Center, the Duplin County branch of the NAACP and the North Carolina Poor People’s Campaign alleged that degraded “groundwater, surface water and air quality” would disproportionately harm predominantly Black and Latinx residents in violation of both Title VI of the Civil Rights Act and state environmental laws. Duplin and Sampson Counties, where the four permitted swine facilities owned by Smithfield Foods Inc. are located, have the highest concentration of hog operations in the United States. A total of 9 million hogs are raised annually at 2,000 industrial hog operations “in the low-lying, flood-prone coastal plain of eastern North Carolina,” the complaint said. Blakely Hildebrand, an SELC attorney, said in an interview that the state Department of Environmental Quality not only failed to consider increased pollution from the biogas plan but also ignored long-standing environmental issues related to “usage of this very harmful lagoon and sprayfield system,” in which untreated hog urine and feces are stored in giant, open lagoons and periodically sprayed into the air and onto nearby fields as fertilizer. The $500 million plan to produce biogas from methane gas in hog waste is a joint venture between Smithfield Foods and Dominion Energy Inc., known as Align Renewable Natural Gas, or Align RNG, which began in 2018. Align RNG requires hog operators to install anaerobic digesters that cover the open-air waste lagoons and capture the methane. The methane is then transferred into a network of pipelines, processed at a central facility and ultimately sold as natural gas for heating homes and other uses.

Biomass is promoted as a carbon neutral fuel. But is burning wood a step in the wrong direction? - Thick dust has been filling the air and settling on homes in Debra David’s neighborhood of Hamlet, North Carolina, ever since a wood pellet plant started operating nearby in 2019.The 64-year-old said the pollution is badly affecting the health of the population, which has already been hit hard by Covid.“More people are having breathing problems and asthma problems than ever before,” David said. She started suffering from asthma for the first time two years ago and other people in Hamlet have been getting nosebleeds, which she also puts down to the dust.“The older people have it the worst,” she added. “They stay inside most of the time and when they do come out they struggle to breathe. They can’t sit out in their yards like they used to.”The plant, owned by Maryland-headquartered Enviva, the world’s largest biomass producer, is one of four the company operates in North Carolina, turning trees into wood pellets, most of which are exported to the UK, Europe and Japan to burn for energy.Biomass has been promoted as a carbon-neutral energy source by industry, some countries and lawmakers on the basis that the emissions released by burning wood can be offset by the carbon dioxide taken up by trees grown to replace those burned.Yet there remain serious doubts among many scientists about its carbon-neutral credentials, especially when wood pellets are made by cutting down whole trees, rather than using waste wood products. It can take as much as a century for trees to grow enough to offset the carbon released.Burning wood for energy is also inefficient – biomass has been found to release more carbon dioxide per unit of energy than coal or gas, according to a 2018 study and an open letter to the EU signed by nearly 800 scientists.

White House promotes faraway promise of green hydrogen - Long-haul trucks. Cargo ships. Steel mills and cement plants. The White House believes it can use green hydrogen to cut emissions in all of them. Much of the attention around climate policy has focused on reducing carbon dioxide from vehicles, power plants and airplanes. But the Biden administration is also promoting the elusive promise of using water and renewable energy to make a clean version of hydrogen for powering U.S. industry. White House climate adviser Gina McCarthy said recently that the fuel source, which is not commercially available, could become a key tool for reducing emissions. “We need to get more and more solutions to deploy, so green hydrogen is a big player in both the manufacturing and the heavy-duty vehicle sector right away,” McCarthy said on the “Madam Policy” podcast hosted by Bracewell LLP, a firm representing energy clients. Hydrogen is made by using electrolysis to separate it from oxygen molecules in water. But the process requires electricity, and 95 percent of all hydrogen produced today relies on fossil fuels. So-called green hydrogen would be made with renewable energy. The technology is promising, but it’s uncertain when, or if, it will be widely available. The International Energy Agency called on world leaders yesterday to invest more in hydrogen. If that happens, up to 62 percent of all hydrogen produced by 2050 could be green, compared to 35 percent that would be blue hydrogen — the kind made with natural gas and carbon capture technology.

Senate confirms eco-terrorist-linked Biden nominee who endorsed population control - The Senate confirmed President Biden’s embattled eco-terrorist-linked nominee who endorsed population control to lead the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). In a 50-45 party-line vote, Tracy Stone-Manning was confirmed as the director of BLM on Thursday evening. Stone-Manning’s nomination saw robust opposition from conservatives in Congress and outside the halls, with Adam Brandon, president of conservative and libertarian advocacy group FreedomWorks, saying it "should come as no surprise" Biden’s nominee holds her views "seeing as she collaborated with eco-terrorist groups with ties to Ted Kaczynski."Stone-Manning eventually lost support from major backers and former Democrat officials, including the Dallas Safari Club and former Obama-era BLM leaders.Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee chairman Joe Manchin, D-W.V., faced monumental pressure from both sides of the aisle on Stone-Manning’s confirmation, eventually announcing that he would vote for the embattled nominee.The White House stood by their pick to lead BLM throughout her nomination, calling Stone-Manning "exceptionally qualified" to lead the agency that oversees millions of acres of federal land. Stone-Manning’s bitter confirmation process was surrounded by controversy, primarily stemming from her links to a 1989 Earth First! tree-spiking plot in an Idaho forest.Tree spiking is a dangerous and violent eco-terrorism tactic where metal rods are inserted into trees to prevent them from being cut down. The metal rods damage saws that, in turn, have severely injured people, such as a mill worker whose jaw was split in two from an exploding saw. In 1993, Stone-Manning was granted legal immunity for her testimony that she retyped and sent an anonymous letter to the U.S. Forest Service on behalf of John P. Blount, her former roommate and friend, documents reveal. The letter told the Forest Service that 500 pounds of "spikes measuring 8 to 10 inches in length" had been jammed into the trees of an Idaho forest. "The sales were marked so that no workers would be injured and so that you a--holes know that they are spiked," read the letter obtained by Fox News. "The majority of the trees were spiked within the first ten feet, but many, many others were spiked as high as a hundred and fifty feet.""P.S., You bastards go in there anyway and a lot of people could get hurt," the note concluded.Stone-Manning also took heavy fire for her graduate thesis where she endorsed population control to protect the environment, writing that Americans needed to "breed fewer consuming humans." She also wrote that parents should stop having children after having two and created a sample advertisement that called a pictured child an "environmental hazard."

Marianne Williamson: Steven Donziger sentencing is meant to have a 'chilling effect' on environmentalists --Former presidential candidate and environmental activist Marianne Williamson said on Monday that the six-month prison sentence given to former environmental lawyer Steven Donziger last week is designed to have a "chilling effect" on environmentalists. Donziger, who successfully secured a $8.5 billion judgement against Texaco in 2011, was sentenced to six months in prison on Friday for contempt charges related to legal proceedings that began in Ecuador a decade ago. Donziger has already served more than two years in house arrest and supporters have decried the sentencing as retaliatory, which Williamson agreed with. "[U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska] is expressing the outrage of Chevron, and by extension all oil companies, at the audacity of Steven Donziger and by extension the entire environmentalist movement to challenge its hegemony," Williamson said. "It's meant to have a chilling effect on any of us in the environmental movement or just citizens of the planet who say this has got to stop," Williamson added. She accused Preska of speaking on behalf of Chevron, rather than on behalf of the U.S. justice system.

States, tribes, and NGOs hold polluters accountable in a ‘tidal wave’ of greenwashing lawsuits -- Last month, the Sauk-Suiattle Indian Tribe sued Seattle City Light, which calls itself the “nation’s greenest utility,” claiming that the public electric utility’s environmental claims were untruthful. Despite generating 80 percent of its electricity is from hydropower — which produces no direct greenhouse gas emissions — the utility’s hydroelectric dams on the Skagit River are harming fish populations, according to the lawsuit.“They are greenwashing, and they’re deceiving the public,” said Nino Maltos, chair of the Sauk-Suiattle tribe. “Their dams are killing off the fish that we rely on.”The tribe’s lawsuit follows a slew of other legal actions from consumers, advocacy groups, and states over alleged greenwashing — “a tidal wave” of cases, according to Zorka Milin, senior legal counsel for the international nonprofit Global Witness. Such cases tend to invoke a combination of state-level tort and consumer protection laws, which together can link deceptive advertising to financial, physical, or emotional harm. While the jury is still out on how successful these lawsuits can be, legal experts are hopeful that they can play a role in holding corporations accountable for discrepancies between their advertising and their business models.Most greenwashing lawsuits currently playing out in the court system involve fossil fuel companies. One of the first of these was kicked off by Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey, whose 2016 investigation into ExxonMobil led to a lawsuit in 2019. In the lawsuit, Healey claimed that Exxon’s advertisements “mislead Massachusetts consumers by falsely representing that ExxonMobil is a leader in developing clean energies.” Between 2010 and 2018, just 0.2 percent of the company’s capital expenditure went to clean energy, according to the nonprofit law firm ClientEarth.

White House proposes restoring key parts of National Environmental Policy Act, reversing Trump - The Washington Post - The White House proposed restoring parts of one of the nation’s bedrock environmental laws Wednesday, requiring agencies to conduct a climate analysis of major projects and give affected communities greater input into the process.If finalized, the move to change how the government reviews pipelines, highways and other projects under the National Environmental Policy Act would reverse a significant rollback by the Donald Trump administration. While the proposal won praise from environmentalists, it came under criticism from developers and could make it harder to upgrade the aging bridges and roads President Biden has pledged to rebuild.Brenda Mallory, who chairs the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said in a statement that the changes would not delay major projects because they would make it easier to forge a consensus on how they would be built. “The basic community safeguards we are proposing to restore would help ensure that American infrastructure gets built right the first time, and delivers real benefits — not harms — to people who live nearby,” she said. “Patching these holes in the environmental review process will help reduce conflict and litigation and help clear up some of the uncertainty that the previous administration’s rule caused.”Mallory added that the move would restore the law’s focus on climate change, a top diplomatic priority for Biden ahead of a United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, next month.In addition, the White House said the proposed rule would encourage agencies to study alternatives to projects that face opposition from affected communities, and it would clarify that the law’s requirements are “a floor, rather than a ceiling" when it comes to environmental reviews.

The Energy Transition Will Take Decades Not Years - This year’s global demand for all three fossil fuels has sent a message to overly enthusiastic proponents of the energy transition - hold your horses.Those who predicted last year the demise of oil, gas, and coal after the pandemic and those who said that peak oil demand was already behind us because lasting changes in consumer behavior would reduce the use of crude are now facing reality. Global oil demand is just a few months away from reaching pre-pandemic levels, while natural gas and coal demand have already exceeded the 2019 volumes.Sure, international airline travel is still struggling because of COVID-related travel restrictions in place in many countries. But economies are bouncing back, industries are growing, and the world needs a lot of energy, once again.And fossil fuels continue to supply most of that energy and will do so for years to come. Last year’s slump in fossil fuel consumption is being erased, and those who expected oil, gas, and coal demand to never return to pre-COVID levels now know they were wrong. Also wrong were all those who hoped the ‘build back greener’ policies that governments pledged last year would suddenly lead to solar, wind, biofuels, sustainable aviation fuels, and hydrogen displacing fossil fuel-generated energy overnight.Economies are recovering post-COVID, and consumer habits haven’t changed all that much: consumers still want a warm home, power, the latest tech gadgets, and to be able to freely travel and spend money.Apart from a share of renewables for power generation, solar and wind, for example, are not really providing the energy and all the stuff consumers buy. Fossil fuels do. And they will continue to do so for at least another decade until the energy transition - including in industries other than power generation - accelerates. The share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation continues to rise, but renewables are incapable of meeting the rebounding power demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in July.The IEA also says that if the world were to meet a net-zero target in 2050, it should stop investing in new oil, gas, and coal supply now. Yet, these days, both the most developed economies in Europe and the fastest-growing developing economies in Asia - China and India - are experiencing first-hand what undersupplied coal and gas markets mean: very high prices of energy commodities and power supply, and industries halting factories because of shortage of electricity or gas.

Upper Midwest renewable energy projects spark need for more power lines - Xcel Energy cut the size of the Crown Ridge II wind farm in South Dakota by one-third because of a growing problem on the Midwest's electricity grid: too much traffic. As more renewable energy is linked to the grid, transmission capacity is being strained. New projects are facing increasing costs — and longer waits — in connecting to the grid. Some, like Crown Ridge II, get downsized; others get canceled altogether."The grid is full today," More transmission, from big cross-country power lines to localized interconnections, is needed, particularly if aggressive government climate change goals are to be met, say clean energy analysts and power industry executives. A power line next door is a tough sell, even if it's transporting clean energy. One proposed high-voltage line — a $492 million conduit of wind power from Dubuque, Iowa, to Madison, Wis. — is mired in litigation, challenged by conservation groups. And a transmission build-out would be expensive, particularly if the U.S. moves to a high level "electrification," meaning abandoning fossil fuels for electricity-driven transportation and heating.With high electrification and net-zero carbon emissions,total U.S. transmission would need to triple by 2050 at a cost of about $2.4 trillion, according to a December 2020 study by Princeton University's Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment.The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which runs the grid in 15 states including Minnesota, has estimated that nearly $30 billion in investments would be needed in the base scenario of its current long-term transmission planning effort.Closer to home, Xcel this summer proposed a new Minnesota power line from Becker to southwestern Minnesota at an estimated cost of $528 million. Money for new transmission would ultimately come mostly from ratepayers. And utilities have an economic incentive to want more of it: Transmission gets built into their rate base, providing profits over time.

Report: Midwest states losing millions from efficiency rollbacks -- An Ohio bill would begin to restore energy efficiency programs gutted two years ago by House Bill 6, but a new report shows that ratepayers in Ohio and other states will continue to miss out on huge savings due to recent policy changes.The Midwest Energy Efficiency Alliance today released the report by Synapse Energy Economics that compares benefits before and after changes to state energy efficiency standards made over the last several years in Illinois, Iowa, Indiana and Ohio. The report also analyzed changes that had been proposed for Missouri and Wisconsin. Among the policy changes considered, HB 6 was the most recent and most severe.“When you remove energy efficiency, you’re removing a ton of net benefits to ratepayers, to state residents,” said Nick Dreher, policy director of MEEA. “You’re unnecessarily burdening residents or businesses with costs.”For Ohio, the MEEA report estimates that Ohioans missed out on roughly $980 million in net benefits for one program year. That figure includes savings on energy bills, as well as things like reduced capacity costs and avoided costs for transmission and distribution.When avoided health impacts and the social costs of carbon are factored in, Ohioans would have saved more than $2 billion for a single program year, according to the analysis.The report’s calculations of Ohio’s lost benefits are of the same order of magnitude asa separate analysis released earlier this year. The new report’s review of rollbacks in additional states reflects a broader trend in the Midwest over the past several years, said MEEA Executive Director Stacey Paradis.

Ohio startup aims to lower energy storage costs with molten salt - Cleantech advancements sometimes feature emerging concepts like artificial intelligence or carbon-based nanomaterials. But Euclid, Ohio, advanced materials startup Cratus is using a more familiar material: salt. Salts, highly heated until they’re practically liquid, are a critical piece of Cratus’ large-scale energy storage technologies. The startup is commercializing a high temperature molten salt thermal energy storage system that can be paired with any power or heat source, but it works particularly well with solar power and nuclear power generation, said founder Andy Sherman. Cratus’ system is in the testing phase, but the final product is expected to offer at least three-times cost savings over other long-duration energy storage. Their solution could cost about $200-250/kW hour of energy storage, compared with competitors like Tesla whose individual energy storage units are roughly estimated to cost $600/kW hour following a recent price cut.The units also are smaller than lithium-ion battery packs, non-toxic, can be safely transported, and work at higher heats than other systems, Sherman said.The thermal storage technology relies on phase-change materials: substances that release or absorb significant energy when they change states, such as moving from solid to liquid. Salt is stored in Cratus’ system, and serves as a phase change material that releases energy when it is heated at high temperatures with silicon alloys to create a slurry, or semi-liquid material.While molten salt already holds a good deal of energy, Cratus’ patent-pending materials could triple their energy storage capability. And its system can work under 30% higher temperatures than other storage systems, allowing Cratus systems to produce three times higher efficiency and output.

Bipartisan energy bill could reshape power production, climate change in North Carolina (7:47 podcast and transcript) Late last week, North Carolina lawmakers announced they had negotiated a bipartisan energy bill. House Bill 951 is the result of months of backroom talks between Gov. Roy Cooper, and democrat and republican leaders in the general assembly. What has emerged is one of those compromises that seems to make the politicians and negotiators happy, and plenty of other people unhappy. That said, there's some real changes that, if enacted, will likely impact how this state produces and pays for energy, and how that affects climate change in the coming decades. WUNC spoke with Elizabeth Ouzts about the bill and its impacts. She covers North Carolina's clean energy transition for the Energy News Network. This conversation has been edited for length.

Dickens County residents excited about bitcoin mining facility - Monday night at the Palace Theater in Spur, Argo Blockchain hosted a community informational program, to discuss the cryptocurrency mining facility it’s building in Dickens County. Executives say Dickens County is “bitcoin mining nirvana.” “It’s a very friendly place, you know it’s a great, welcoming jurisdiction, business friendly. The most important is that there’s low cost renewable power. So, there’s a lot of wind that’s being generated in the area, and there’s not a lot of local load to us it,” CEO Peter Wall said. Argo claims it uses renewable forms of energy to power its mining operation. Wall says the mine will be a 200 megawatt facility, using half the amount that powers the entire city of Lubbock. The facility will be located right next to the McAdoo Wind Farm’s Cottonwood Substation, which receives and distributes mostly renewable energy. Some Dickens County residents said they were excited when they heard the news, but needed to do some studying to learn more about bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining. It’s estimated to be a more than $100 million investment to the area and add 20 jobs. Spur mayor Louise Jones says the area needs the additional employment. “We don’t know what tomorrow’s gon’ bring, all we have is today. So, lets enjoy today and let them bring something good here to Spur, Texas,” Jones said. Spur Chamber of Commerce president Matthew McArthur says he hasn’t seen a downside to the project, noting he’s glad that someone is buying the electricity produced by the wind farms. “Well I was thrilled. We’ve got a great electrical grid with all the windmills. We’ve got an excellent school system. We were thrilled to have the jobs in and the property they’re building is going to be great as for as tax valuation. It’s going to take a lot of the weight off the taxpayers,” McArthur said.

CT landfill expansion plan faces opposition Trucks have been rolling across Connecticut to Putnam to dump incinerated waste from homes and businesses, and if the town and state get their way, the trucks will keep coming for years. On Oct. 13, citizens and activist groups will weigh in on whether WIN Waste Innovations can double the size of an existing landfill in Putnam, with a focus on any potential impact to underground aquifers. DEEP has a registration page online for people who wish to view the Wheelabrator Putnam hearing via Zoom. Wheelabrator Putnam takes in ash from “waste-to-energy” plants in Bridgeport and elsewhere, produced as a byproduct of burning garbage and debris to power steam turbines that pump electricity onto the New England grid. The facility produces about 300,000 gallons of wastewater daily that is treated before being released into the Quinebaug River, which flows south into the Shetucket and Thames rivers, emptying into Long Island Sound. WIN Waste wants to tack on an extra 68 acres to its existing ash “monofill” facility in Putnam, extending the life of the facility as long as three decades after 2024, when the initial landfill reaches its capacity of 9 million square yards of ash fill. At that point, it would be capped like any dump and put to new use, a solar farm being one option as the case with landfills in Hartford and Bethel over the past decade. The expanded landfill would include a pair of liners nearly two-and-a-half inches thick made of high-density polyethylene — like PVC a material used in piping but with vastly greater durability. Monitoring systems will be in place to detect any failure of the landfill liner, and that the aquifer below the site has some capacity to filter any “leachate” before entering the Quinebaug. The drainage area does not feed any private or public supplies of drinking water, according to the state Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Wheelabrator Bridgeport is the single biggest source of ash destined for Putnam, at about 190,000 tons annually. Another 330,000 tons arrives from the Wheelabrator Westchester plant in Peekskill, N.Y., and the Materials Innovation and Recycling Authority plant in Hartford, which is slated to shut down next summer. Wheelabrator Lisbon and a Covanta plant in Preston combine for nearly 130,000 tons more, with Plainfield Renewable Energy generating less than 13,000 tons from burning scrap wood to produce power.

US coal, solar surge on gas price spike as utilities hedge their short-term bets - Soaring U.S. natural gas prices have prompted power plant owners to evaluate whether to ramp up other sources of generation, such as coal, and provided a short-term boost for renewables. Rising demand as the U.S. economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic and tight supply exacerbated by Hurricane Ida in the Gulf Coast have driven Henry Hub natural gas prices to nearly double over the past four months and almost triple from a year ago, closing September at $5.87/MMBtu. With Europe facing a major supply crunch, industry observers have raised concerns that the fuel's prices will continue in the $5/MMBtu range in the U.S. this winter with the potential to hit $10/MMBtu if weather conditions change sharply. As a result, America's power mix in 2021 so far reflects lower gas use, a comeback year for coal, continued rapid expansion of solar and modest growth for wind. Natural gas generation was down 5.8% through the first seven months of 2021 compared with last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's most recent data. That decline came even as conventional hydroelectric generation shed 13.4% over the period stemming from extreme drought conditions across much of the Western United States — conditions that would seem ripe for more gas, not less. Instead, the country's coal generation jumped 30% through July, while solar output rose nearly 26% and wind power increased 8.4%. "Certainly, increasing gas prices are going to help pump demand for solar, no question," Kevin Smith, Lightsource BP Renewable Energy Investments Ltd.'s CEO of the Americas, said in an interview. "Stand-alone solar and solar with storage are extremely competitive right now against natural gas." The renewable energy venture of oil and gas giant BP PLC, with a U.S. solar portfolio of nearly 10,000 MW, is seeing some customers pivot toward solar based purely on price, especially in southeastern states lacking renewable energy mandates, Smith added.

Biden’s infrastructure bill spells disaster for W.Va. -West Virginians may not know it, but our economy could very well be devastated in a matter of months. President Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill – one that’s soon going before the House for a vote after it was delayed – has its finger on the trigger. This bill is bad news for the country, but especially for us. As the Mountain State continues to recover from the decline of coal, the environmental requirements of this activist bill threaten to devastate the economy of West Virginia and reverse the hard work of West Virginians to build a brighter future. The idea of a bill that focuses on rebuilding infrastructure, even non-traditional forms of infrastructure, sounds good on the surface to most. After all, we desperately need access to broadband and our roads are a travesty. But the bill’s careful reader encounters – lurking among the many other nasty surprises in its 2,700-pages –environmental activist-style energy requirements that’ll do nothing but ruin our state’s economy. The new clean electricity standard, hailed by Minnesota Senator Tina Smith as “the biggest change in our energy policy since the lights went on,” requires that, by 2030, 80 percent of all energy in the U.S. must come from renewable sources (i.e. solar, wind, etc.). This is why West Virginians voted for Trump in droves in 2016 and again in 2020 – in large part due to his promises to save coal. Since 2014, West Virginia has lost nearly a third of its remaining coal production jobs. This is devastating for a state whose economy and identity are based in coal. For mountaineers, “Coal is West Virginia” is still true even as coal has declined by 50 percent in the last decade. West Virginia is the nation’s fifth-largest energy producer, and second-largest coal producer, providing 5 percent of the nation’s energy. Even at a 20 year low for coal, West Virginia’s electric power grid is still more than nine-tenths fueled by coal. Asking a state this heavily dependent on coal to switch almost entirely to renewables in less than a decade is like demanding a freight train stop on a dime: It’s not going to happen, at least not without deadly consequences.

Infrastructure helps coal: Washington package could give industry shot in the arm — By all accounts, a lot is riding for West Virginia on the proposed $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which is still being negotiated in Washington. Besides the $3.5 billion of that money earmarked for state roads and bridges and other infrastructure needs, passage should also lead to more jobs in the area in an industry that needs a shot in the arm. “If the big infrastructure bill is passed, the metallurgical coal industry is largely going to be the catalyst behind that,” Steve Sarver, Chief Commercial Officer (CCO) of the Bluestone Corporation, said last week of the need for the coal. Bluestone and other coal mining operations are owned by West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice and his family. “We mine metallurgical coal to sell to people like U.S. Steel…to make steel to build bridges, to build roads,” he said. “Without the metallurgical coal industry, you could not have an infrastructure bill.” Sarver said the Justice companies have coke ovens in Birmingham, Ala., and “we’ve owned them for about two years now … and we send the coke to blast furnaces all over America.” Metallurgical coal is shipped to coke ovens which then produce the coke that is used to fire the blast furnaces that make steel, which will be used for roads and bridges and other projects as a result of the infrastructure bill. Gov. Jim Justice said Friday during his COVID pandemic briefing that the bipartisan infrastructure bill is “unbelievably important” to the state, and chastised Washington politicians for holding it hostage over the $3.5 trillion Build Back Better “social bill” the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party wants. “It’s typical nasty politics,” he said. But Justice said he is confident both bills will eventually pass, with a “watered down” version of the Build Back Better being reached in negotiations. “We need the infrastructure bill now,” he said.

Joe Manchin, America’s Climate Decider-in-Chief, Is a Coal Baron - Joe Manchin has never been this famous. People around the world now know that the West Virginia Democrat is the essential 50th vote in the U.S. Senate that president Joe Biden needs to pass his agenda into law. That includes Biden's climate agenda. Which doesn't bode well for defusing the climate emergency, given Manchin's longstanding opposition to ambitious climate action. It turns out that the Senator wielding this awesome power – America's climate decider-in-chief, one might call him – has a massive climate conflict of interest. Joe Manchin, investigative journalism has revealed, is a modern-day coal baron. Financial records detailed by reporter Alex Kotch for the Center for Media and Democracy and published in the Guardian show that Manchin makes roughly half a million dollars a year in dividends from millions of dollars of coal company stock he owns. The stock is held in Enersystems, Inc, a company Manchin started in 1988 and later gave to his son, Joseph, to run. Coal has been the primary driver of global warming since coal began fueling the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain 250 years ago. Today, the science is clear: coal must be phased out, starting immediately and around the world, to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. This is not a vision that gladdens a coal baron's heart. The idea of eliminating fossil fuels is "very, very disturbing," Manchin said in July when specifics of Biden's climate agenda surfaced. Behind the scenes, Manchin reportedly has objected to Biden's plan to penalize electric utilities that don't quit coal as fast as science dictates. The White House is not selling it this way, but the huge budget bill now under feverish negotiations on Capitol Hill is as much as anything a climate bill. Apparently keen to delay a vote on the bill – but not on the bipartisan infrastructure bill containing billions in subsidies for climate harming programs like making hydrogen from methane – Manchin asked on CNN, "What is the urgency?" of passing the larger bill. Like ExxonMobil, the senator appears to have jettisoned outright climate denial in favor of its more presentable, but no less lethal, cousin: climate delay. Soon Biden will join other world leaders at the COP26 UN climate summit in Glasgow, described as a "now or never" moment for efforts to preserve a livable planet. Biden and his international climate envoy, John Kerry, have been leaning on other nations, especially China, to step up their commitments. But Biden can only press that case successfully in Glasgow if Congress passes the budget bill, and with its climate provisions intact. That will depend in no small part on Manchin, who as the Democrats' 50th vote in the Senate now holds what amounts to veto power over U.S. climate policy. It's not illegal for Senator Manchin to own millions of dollars of coal stock – indeed, it illustrates the old saw that the real scandal in Washington is what's legal – but it certainly raises questions about his impartiality on climate policy. Should any lawmaker with such a sizable financial conflict of interest wield decisive influence over what the U.S. government does about a life-and-death issue like the climate emergency? Shouldn't there be public discussion about whether that lawmaker should recuse himself from such deliberations? In the realm of law, a judge who had anything like this level of financial conflict in a case would have to recuse and let a different judge handle the proceedings. The legal profession's code of ethics dictates this approach not only because a judge's financial interest would tempt them to rule in their own favor. It's also because the two parties litigating the case and the broader public could not have faith that justice had been done by a judge with such a conflict. Why shouldn't a similar standard apply to the American public's faith in government policy, especially when what's at stake is, you know, the future of life on Earth? Manchin could still vote for the budget bill; he just couldn't touch its climate provisions.

Toxic foam dumped into southern Illinois coal mine in unsuccessful attempt to extinguish underground fire - Operators of a southern Illinois coal mine dumped toxic foam deep underground in an unsuccessful attempt to extinguish a fire that idled production last month, according to documents obtained by the Chicago Tribune. The type of foam used by St. Louis-based Foresight Energy is being phased out in Illinois and 11 other states under laws that for the first time restrict unregulated chemicals known as PFAS—shorthand for perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances. PFAS are a growing concern worldwide because they remain in the environment forever, linger in the blood of exposed people for years and trigger several health problems, including cancer, liver damage and decreased fertility. inspectors determined the company had pumped more than 46,000 gallons of PFAS-laden foam into the mine, raising the possibility that nearby private wells and other sources of drinking water could be contaminated. Company officials also hired contractors to drill boreholes into the mine without a permit, records show. One of the boreholes is close to a creek where testing this month by the Illinois Environmental Protection detected high levels of PFAS. "Potential environmental impacts are tremendous, especially if the foam is not contained," said Melanie Benesh, an attorney for the Environmental Working Group, a nonprofit organization pushing to ban the chemicals. "PFAS can seep into groundwater where it won't break down. If the contaminated groundwater is a source of drinking water, then residents may be exposed to PFAS." Both the fire and Foresight's responses to it remained secret until a local environmental activist took pictures of foam that had drifted to above-ground ditches and farm fields near the mine entrance in Franklin County, about 270 miles southwest of Chicago. Portions of the mine are still smoldering, and federal mining regulators have blocked Foresight from resuming production. Emails show the Illinois EPA didn't begin looking into potential harm to people and wildlife until Sept. 1, more than three weeks after Foresight evacuated miners at Sugar Camp. Samples collected the next day had PFAS concentrations up to 16 times higher than state health guidelines, records show. Foresight's use of PFAS-laden foam came a month after federal and state regulators ordered a Louisiana-based contractor to switch to safer alternatives while putting out a fire that destroyed a chemical plant near Rockford. Nearly every American has PFAS in their blood, studies have found. The compounds are known largely for their use in products featuring the Teflon and Scotchgard brands, manufactured by DuPont and 3M, respectively. But dozens of related compounds are still widely used in firefighting foam, food packaging, stain- and water-resistant clothing, carpets and household products, among other things. Since opening in 2008, Sugar Camp has repeatedly shown up on the U.S. EPA's list of chronic violators of the federal Clean Water Act. The mine also is a major source of heat-trapping pollution scrambling the earth's climate. Burning Foresight's coal in power plants and factories released more carbon dioxide last year than the heat-trapping emissions from all 4.6 million automobiles registered in Illinois.

Electricity bills in Italy rise by almost 30 percent from Friday - &Households and businesses in Italy will be paying more for electricity and gas from Friday with another steep price rise at the start of the third quarter, despite government measures to limit the increase. Household electricity bills will rise by 29.8% for the typical family and gas bills will go up by 14.4%, Italy’s energy regulatory authority Arera confirmed in a press release on Tuesday evening. The new national tariffs come in from Friday, at the start of the fourth quarter of 2021 (October-December). The increase comes amid surging energy costs across Europe, and beyond. The price rise passed on to Italian consumers could’ve reached 45 percent, Arera said, if the government had not stepped in to cap the new rise in rates. The Italian government last week announced measures costing three billion euros aimed at limiting a steeper rise in energy prices for consumers. As well as keeping the cost to most families below 30 percent and 15 percent, the government measures will keep additional costs at zero for those least well-off, including households with an income under 8,265 euros, families with at least 4 dependent children with an income of less than 20,000 euros, those who receive a state pension or unemployment benefit, and people who are seriously ill, Italy is highly dependent on imports and consumes a large amount of gas. Some 40 percent of its primary energy consumption is gas, compared with about 15 percent in France, according to official statistics for both countries. Europe is facing soaring power prices as its economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, while natural gas reserves are at a worrying low level as winter approaches. Italian consumers are now paying some of the highest electricity prices in Europe, with the average cost already at 145.03 euros per mw/h (megawatt hour) according to newspaper Corriere della Sera. This means the cost is higher than in Portugal and in Spain, where electricity costs have soared to 141.71 euros per mw/h, reaching an all-time high on September 9th after significant price rises across much of Europe over the past 12 months.#160;

The Electricity Crisis Was Not Caused By A ‘Perfect Storm’ -Recent news from the global electricity sector looks grim. South Americans, heavily dependent on hydroelectricity, face drought-induced scarcity. Hard to believe in a continent laced by three enormous river systems. The alternatives for South American electricity users are an increased reliance on fossil fuels or turning off the lights (conservation). And unlike relatively inexpensive hydroelectricity, generating electricity with fossil fuels (apart from the ecological consequences) incurs fuel expense, which raises prices.The news emphasizes growing inflationary pressures. And this certainly feeds into that narrative. But there is a more worrisome problem for energy planners here. More droughts mean that hydro can no longer be considered a “firm” long-term resource for the electrical grid. Subtracting a major low-cost resource like hydro from a region’s energy mix and replacing it in any other fashion is an enormous financial undertaking. Just as countries are moving to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, one of the cleanest energy sources becomes scarcer.But there is a distinctly global flavor now to stories of electric utility infrastructure under duress not simply due to extreme weather. Failure of human ingenuity plays a part here. In Puerto Rico, the reorganized and semi-privatized electricity system, PREPA, experiences frequent blackouts. Yet customers seeking to install their own generation (and potentially resell power to the utility at critical times) can’t get the power company to hook them up. India faces an electricity shortage because power companies failed to restock coal inventories. Their executives expected a meaningful decline in coal prices which never materialized so they’re stuck. In the UK the windpower yield was below expectations and that dramatically pushed up power prices.But winter is coming—when the existing natural gas shortage pushes prices even higher. And then there is China. Electricity demand rose, coal usage increased, and coal prices went way up. But the government puts a ceiling on the price of electricity which causes generators to lose money on power sales in periods of rapidly escalating fuel prices like the present. So who wants to lose money on every KWH sold in the hope of making it up in volume? After experiencing blackouts and other usage reduction measures, the electric companies went to purchase more coal. However, world coal markets are now tight. One obvious short-term solution is a rapprochement with regional neighbor Australia despite a recent chilling in relations between the two governments. In many places, the price of natural gas determines the price of electricity. If global warming were not a pressing concern, natural gas would be the boiler fuel of choice. In its absence, they would burn coal or oil. Natural gas prices have more than doubled this year in the US and quadrupled in European markets. No doubt a combination of higher demand and more cautious development by petroleum companies has tightened the market. But Europe depends to a great extent on Russian supplied gas and there are indications that the Russians did not fill European storage facilities in order to manipulate scarcity to their advantage. The Europeans do have alternatives to Russian gas, such as pipelines from Algeria (which is not the most stable supplier). Morocco wants to sign a deal but it has a problem caused by the sometimes rebellious Polisario Front which claims to represent the western Sahara region. European countries could sign big gas deals with Israel and Cyprus but would face Turkish objections. As they say, it’s complicated.

China needs coal, and Australia has it. But something's standing in the way - The world's second-largest economy is facing a power shortage owing to a combination of factors. They include: extreme weather, surging demand for Chinese exports and a national push to reduce carbon emissions, as set out by President Xi Jinping.China is an industrial powerhouse and the planet's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide. The country generates most of its electricity by burning coal but the inventory of major power plants reached a 10-year low in August."While China unambiguously needs as much coal as it can get its hands on to avert a [fourth-quarter] slowdown due to the tyranny of rolling power shortages, geo-political tensions with Australia have waylaid the most convenient source of high-calorific coal from Down Under," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Asia and Oceania treasury department at Mizuho, in a note on Monday.Late last year, China stopped buying coal from Australia — which used to be the biggest exporter of the commodity to the country. It came as trade tensions between the two countries soared, after Australia backed a call for an international inquiry into China's handling of the coronavirus.As a result, China turned to Indonesia, Mongolia, Russia and other countries to try and make up for the shortfall. Last year, reports said that Indonesian coal miners signed a $1.5 billion supply deal with China.Indonesia is well positioned to benefit from the demand spill-over, but its ability to fulfil shipments may be a bottleneck, Varathan said.China faces risks in procuring coal quickly due to a variety of constraints including logistics and regulations. That implies a "stutter in economic activity and attendant kinks in regional supply chain may not be fully avoided," Varathan said.Already, some banks have downgraded China's growth prospects due to the power crunch.Many observers appear to be worried about a "significant degree of energy price shock," Varathan said.China's power shortage could lead to rise in prices for many export goods that could result in modest increase in consumer inflation in advanced economies, according to Kevin Xie, senior Asia economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.Restrictions on electricity supply will cut economic growth and exacerbate the slowdown caused by problems in China's residential construction sector, Xie said in a note last week."Energy intensive industries will be most affected by electricity rationing. The combined share of the industrial sector in affected provinces with power rationing is about 14% of Chinese GDP," he added. So far, policymakers in Beijing have not given any indication of whether China will resume importing Australian coal. Media reports last week said Indian firms snagged about 2 million tons of Australian coal at a discounted price that were sitting in Chinese warehouses.

German Coal Plant Runs Completely Out Of Coal. - German utility Steag halted its coal-fired power plant Bergkamen-A after it ran out of hard coal supplies amid an energy crunch globally and logistics challenges domestically, the company told Bloomberg on Friday.“We are short of hard coal,” Steag spokesman Daniel Muhlenfeld told Bloomberg via email.“There is a strong demand for coal per se and secondly, there is a strong demand for transport by barge. And since Bergkamen has no rail connection, there are no logistical alternatives available here,” Muhlenfeld said.Lignite and hard coal accounted for around 26 percent of Germany’s power generation in the first half of 2021, according to data from the German Association of Energy and Water Industries, BDEW.In recent weeks, utilities across Europe have fired up more coal-powered generation as natural gas prices continue to surge.Even the UK, which has pledged to phase out coal-fired power generation by October 2024, had to fire up earlier this month an old coal plant that was on standby in order to meet its electricity demand. The share of coal in Britain’s electricity mix during some periods in September—albeit below 3 percent—was more than double compared to the below-1-percent share in September 2020.Gas and power prices in Europe are at all-time highs, as Europe is low not only on natural gas supply as the heating season begins on October 1. Coal is also in short supply as some utilities are forced to switch to coal from gas due to the surging gas prices. Coal prices are also surging amid a tight global market supply with Chinese demand booming and with high EU carbon prices. Officials at Russian companies tell Bloomberg that European utilities are asking for coal. But Europe may not get much incremental coal supply anytime soon, as Russian coal exports are constrained just as gas deliveries are.

Things do not have to run out for their scarcity to become destabilizing -- Economic cornucopians who believe "innovation" and "substitution" will solve every constraint on resources needed for modern civilization use a clever piece of misdirection to deflect the arguments of those concerned about limits. These cornucopians say that the claim by the limits crowd that we will "run out" of resources we need to maintain the smooth functioning of our complex industrial society is nonsense. But that statement is straw man designed to avoid the real issue, an issue which we see in abundance all around us today, namely: Things do not have to run out for their scarcity to become destabilizing. This is a key argument among those concerned about limits and the effects of those limits on the stable functioning of modern society. We have not run out of fossil fuels but shortages are creating widespread problems in China and Europe. We are not running out of water in the world, but there is not enough of it in the right place to supply all the needs of those living in the American Southwest. That lack of water is leading to a reduction in geothermal power generation as well. And, drought in California is reducing the amount hydroelectric generation by a third so far this year. High natural gas prices in Europe are not only affecting those who burn the fuel for heat and transportation, but also those who use natural gas as a chemical feedstock. Two British fertilizer plants ceased operations because the high price of natural gas is making it too costly to produce nitrogen fertilizers. But there were knock-on effects of that closure which have imperiled the U.K. meat industry because the industry uses these plants' vast production of carbon dioxide—a byproduct of nitrogen fertilizer production—in stun guns to kill animals before slaughter and for cooling and packaging.The fertilizer plant closures have now spread to Belgium, Germany, Austria and Norway.But the effects of natural gas shortages go even further. Natural gas is used extensively in Britain and Europe for electricity generation and electricity prices are skyrocketing. The rising price of both electricity and heat has now resulted in the shutdown of a large portion of the Netherlands' greenhouse industry, a major supplier of fresh vegetables and flowers to Europe. Back in China, the energy crisis is shutting down factories and could lead to shortages of many manufactured goods worldwide. The problem is so acute that the Chinese government has ordered energy companies tosecure fuel supplies at all costs.Earlier this year the lack of computer chips became a big story as it endangered the production of practically all electronic devices. The worst hit sector seems to be the automotive industry which has seen its sales dipbecause it cannot produce as many cars with a shortage of specialized chips made for autos. Meanwhile, food prices have been rising for a number of reasons: poor harvests due to extreme weather, supply-chain problems, and worker shortages.With regard to workers, we have not run out of truck drivers; there are just not enough of them to meet demand in Europe. . Military personnel and tankers are now being pressed into service to deliver that fuel.We are seeing just how much the cornucopian view of the future depends on the smooth functioning of a tightly networked complex global system which is filled with fragilities—fragilities that the pandemic and the emerging scarcity of physical resources and labor are making all too visible. The long-term sustainability of that system is now being called into question across the board. And, it's not because anything is running out. The problems in the system are showing up long before that will ever happen.

Entergy faces $150,000 fine for nuclear plan violations, federal regulators say - A federal agency is proposing a $150,000 fine against Entergy Operations Inc. for three violations at its nuclear power plant in Louisiana. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission announced the fine Friday regarding Entergy’s River Bend Nuclear facility near St. Francisville. The agency found there was an exam proctor falsifying a test and submitting it, an operator failed to properly complete safety checks at the plant’s control building and a senior reactor operator gave an unauthorized employee an access key to a room with cybersecurity-related equipment inside. The alleged violations occurred between 2018 and 2020, the commission’s report said. Entergy has 60 days to dispute the fine or request a mediator to resolve the violations. It didn’t say whether it will do so.

Why California is shutting down its last nuclear plant -California is not keeping up with the energy demands of its residents. The California Independent System Operator issues flex alerts asking consumers to cut back on electricity usage and move electricity usage to off-peak hours, typically after 9 p.m. There were 5 flex alerts issued in 2020 and there have been 8 in 2021, according to CAISO records. On Friday, Sept. 10, the U.S. Department of Energy granted the state an emergency order to allow natural gas power plants to operate without pollution restrictions so that California can meet its energy obligations. The order is in effect until Nov. 9. At the same time, the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant, owned by Pacific Gas and Electric and located near Avila Beach in San Luis Obispo County, is in the middle of a decade-long decommissioning process that will take the state's last nuclear power plant offline. The regulatory licenses for reactor Unit 1 and Unit 2, which commenced operation in 1984 and 1985 will expire inNovember 2024 and August 2025, respectively.Diablo Canyon is the state's only operating nuclear power plant; three others are in various stages of being decommissioned. The plant provides about 9% of California's power, according to the California Energy Commission, compared with 37% from natural gas, 33% from renewables, 13.5% from hydropower, and 3% from coal. Nuclear power is clean energy, meaning that the generation of power does not emit any greenhouse gas emissions, which cause global warming and climate change. Constructing a new power plant does result in carbon emissions, but operating a plant that is already built does not. "The politics against nuclear power in California are more powerful and organized than the politics in favor of a climate policy," David Victor, professor of innovation and public policy at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UC San Diego, told CNBC.Diablo is located near several fault lines, cracks in the earth's crust that arepotential locations for earthquakes. Concerns about nuclear plants and earthquakes grew after the 2011 disaster at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan. In July 2013, the then on-site Nuclear Regulatory Commission inspector for Diablo Canyon, Michael Peck, issued a report questioning whether the nuclear power plant should be shuttered while further investigation was done on fault lines near the plant. .All of these discussions of safety are set against a backdrop of shifting sentiment about nuclear energy in the United States."Since Three Mile Island and then Chernobyl there has been a political swing against nuclear—since the late 1970s," Victor told CNBC. "Analysts call this 'dread risk' — a risk that some people assign to a technology merely because it exists. When people have a 'dread' mental model of risk it doesn't really matter what kind of objective analysis shows safety level. People fear it."

Can Nuclear Fusion Put the Brakes on Climate Change? - Let’s say that you’ve devoted your entire adult life to developing a carbon-free way to power a household for a year on the fuel of a single glass of water, and that you’ve had moments, even years, when you were pretty sure you would succeed. Let’s say also that you’re not crazy. This is a reasonable description of many of the physicists working in the field of nuclear fusion. In order to reach this goal, they had to find a way to heat matter to temperatures hotter than the center of the sun, so hot that atoms essentially melt into a cloud of charged particles known as plasma; they did that. They had to conceive of and build containers that could hold those plasmas; they did that, too, by making “bottles” out of strong magnetic fields. When those magnetic bottles leaked—because, as one scientist explained, trying to contain plasma in a magnetic bottle is like trying to wrap a jelly in twine—they had to devise further ingenious solutions, and, again and again, they did. Over decades, in the pursuit of nuclear fusion, scientists and engineers built giant metal doughnuts and Gehryesque twisted coils, they “pinched” plasmas with lasers, and they constructed fusion devices in garages. For thirty-six years, they have been planning and building an experimental fusion device in Provence. And yet commercially viable nuclear-fusion energy has always remained just a bit farther on. As the White Queen, in “Through the Looking Glass,” said to Alice, it is never jam today, it is always jam tomorrow. The accelerating climate crisis makes fusion’s elusiveness more than cutely maddening. Solar energy gets more efficient and affordable each year, but it’s not continuously available, and it still relies on gas power plants for distribution. The same is true for wind power. Conventional nuclear power has extremely well-known disadvantages. Carbon capture, which is like a toothbrush for the sky, is compelling, but after you capture a teraton or two of carbon there’s nowhere to put it. All these tools figure extensively in decarbonization plans laid out by groups like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but, according to those plans, even when combined with one another the tools are insufficient. Fusion remains the great clean-energy dream—or, depending on whom you ask, pipe dream.

State regulators made ‘utility-friendly’ edits to audit of coal plant bailout, emails show - Ohio Capital Journal --Documents show state utility regulators sought edits to draft versions of an audit they commissioned, prompting the removal of declarations that a ratepayer-funded bailout of two uneconomic coal plants was a bad deal for Ohio electric customers.Staff at the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, which sets customers’ water and electric rates, asked an auditor it hired to use a “milder tone and intensity” when describing bailouts of coal fired power plants funded residential and industrial electricity users.Starting in 2014, PUCO began the process of approving requests from three utility companies — American Electric Power, Duke Energy, and Dayton Power and Light Co. (now known as AES) — to charge their customers “riders” on monthly bills to pay for the coal plant bailouts through 2024. The utilities are some of the largest shareholders of a cooperative called the Ohio Valley Electric Corp., which owns the plants. PUCO ordered the audit, an oversight mechanism, as part of the deal.In 2019, Ohio lawmakers codified the bailouts, expanded them to all residential and industrial utility customers statewide, and extended them through 2030 in House Bill 6. That legislation is now at the center of a federal bribery case that has yielded guilty pleas of a lobbyist, a powerful political operative, adark money nonprofit, and utility company FirstEnergy Corp. The former House speaker has been indicted on one count of racketeering, though he maintains his innocence. Facts proffered by FirstEnergy in its guilty plea implicate the former PUCO chairman of bribery as well, though he has not been charged with a crime and maintains his innocence.Since HB 6 was implemented in January 2020, Ohio ratepayers have spent $166 million bailing out the plants, one of which is in Madison, Indiana, the other in Cheshire, Ohio. The PUCO-commissioned audit ultimately concluded the plants “cost customers more than the cost of energy and capacity.”In another email, one of the auditors tells PUCO she’ll delete another sentence referencing the conclusion that “the OVEC contract overall is not in the best interest of AEP Ohio ratepayers.”In the publicly released version of the audit, no such sentence appears, even though the stated objective of the audit is to “investigate whether the AEP Ohio’s actions were in the best interest of its retail payers.”

Independent audit needed into possible FirstEnergy interference in agencies led by Sam Randazzo: editorial - By Editorial Board, cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer --An outside look-see at the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio when it was led by Sam Randazzo, a regulator paid millions by FirstEnergy Corp. in what prosecutors assert was a scheme to deliver legislative and regulatory benefits to the Akron-based firm, is essential if regulators want to ensure consumer confidence in how the state oversees electric, gas and telephone companies.Also needing independent review is a related agency, the Ohio Power Siting Board, whose curious actions under now-departed Randazzo dealing with a proposed wind energy plant in Lake Erie, off Cleveland, also call for a deeper look.In late August, state Rep. Jeff Crossman, a Parma Democrat, called on the current PUCO chair, Jenifer French, a former Franklin County Common Pleas judge,to order such an outside investigation. She should do so without further delay.Randazzo, who stepped down from both posts last November, has not been charged with any wrongdoing. But in fairness to all concerned, the PUCO’s actions or inactions under Randazzo vis-à-vis FirstEnergy (the Illuminating, Ohio Edison and Toledo Edison companies) deserve a review by outsiders. Given the nature of any bureaucracy, an in-house review would likely inspire little public confidence.A “Statement of Facts” attached to FirstEnergy’s July 22, 2021 Deferred Prosecution Agreement with the Justice Department asserts that on or about Jan. 2, 2019, FirstEnergy wired $4.33 million to a firm solely owned by Randazzo, who is identified as “Public Official B, “in return for Public Official B performing official action in his capacity as PUCO Chairman to further FirstEnergy Corp.’s interests.”About a month later, on Feb. 4, 2019, Gov. Mike DeWine nominated Randazzo to chair the PUCO. Randazzo resigned from the PUCO last fall after federal agents searched his Columbus residence. That search in turn came four months after a federal grand jury, in July 2020, indicted five Statehouse figures, including then-House Speaker Larry Householder, a Perry County Republican, for alleged corruption in winning passage of the nuclear power plant bailout, House Bill 6, sought by FirstEnergy. DeWine signed HB 6 into law. (Many provisions of HB 6 -- but not all -- have since been repealed by Ohio lawmakers.)

Austin Master Services Responds to Concerns About Martins Ferry Facility - Austin Master Services spokesman Christopher Martin says the Martins Ferry frack waste processing facility has made $2 million in improvements and is apprising the city’s fire department of its emergency response plans.Martin released the information on the heels of local residents expressing concern about the facility, which processes radioactive waste from the natural gas and oil fracking industry. Martin said the waste processed at the building, which once was part of Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel, arrives there wet.“It is important to know that all waste that arrives at our facility is wet — this means that the material must go through a process similar to the local wastewater treatment facility. Water is removed from the material through various steps and then dried. Once it is dried our team prepares the material for removal to a landfill or a radioactive waste facility,” he said.“I must clarify one very big fact that is being misconstrued — Austin Master Services does not create waste at the facility. The material we receive includes brine, wet sand, sludge, dry solids, debris, and filters.”Members of the Concerned Ohio River Residents have expressed worries about the facility receiving past citations from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources regarding handling of waste at the facility. ODNR has cited the company for having overflowing bins and having waste stored directly on the floor. One of CORR’s main concerns has been protecting the city’s drinking water from any possible contamination of the aquifer the city water treatment plant draws from. CORR is concerned that Austin Master and the waste it receives could impact the underground well fields. It also has pointed out the facility is located within the city’s Source Water Protection Area. Martin said Austin Master Services is complying with ODNR regulations regarding containment of waste.

State prosecutors abruptly halt pipeline probe announcement | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette — Pennsylvania’s attorney general abruptly canceled a news conference Monday at which he was apparently poised to announce criminal charges against the developer of a pipeline network that transports natural gas liquids across southern Pennsylvania.Attorney General Josh Shapiro had scheduled an event at Marsh Creek State Park in Downingtown, where Sunoco Pipeline LP spilled more than 8,000 gallons of drilling fluid last year. The spill, during construction of the troubled Mariner East 2 pipeline, fouled wetlands, a stream and part of a 535-acre lake.Mr. Shapiro’s office had billed it as a “major environmental crimes case,” and a YouTube page set up to carry the announcement was headlined “AG Shapiro Charges Mariner East Developer With Environmental Crimes.” But the page was quickly yanked down, and the state’s top prosecutor postponed the news conference a little more than 20 minutes before it was scheduled to begin.Mr. Shapiro’s office said it had received “new information” on Monday morning, adding: “We must do our due diligence and review. We will have more to say on this shortly.”The statement did not elaborate, and Mr. Shapiro’s spokesperson had nothing more to add later Monday. Messages seeking comment were sent to Sunoco and its owner, Dallas-based pipeline giant Energy Transfer.The August 2020 spill at Marsh Creek was among a series of incidents that has plagued Mariner East since construction began in 2017, making it one of the most penalized projects in state history.The company has paid more than $16.4 million in fines for polluting waterways and drinking water wells, including a $12.6 million fine in 2018 that was one of the largest ever imposed by the state Department of Environmental Protection. State regulators have periodically shut down construction.But environmental activists and homeowners who assert their water has been fouled say that fines and periodic shutdown orders have not forced Sunoco to clean up its act. They have been demanding revocation of Mariner East’s permits.

Charges Against PA Pipelines - --Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro announced criminal charges on Tuesday, 10/5, against the developer of gas pipelines in the state. The news conference was held at Marsh Creek State Park in Downingtown which was the site of an August 2020 gas spill from the Sunoco Pipeline LP. Energy Transfer, Sunoco's parent company, faces 48 criminal counts. They are accused of releasing industrial waste at 22 sites in 11 counties. Shapiro says the charges are for "illegal behavior that related to the construction of the Mariner East 2 pipeline that polluted our lakes, our rivers and our water wells and put Pennsylvania’s safety at risk." The Mariner East 2 pipeline transports propane, ethane and butane from the enormous Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale gas fields in Western Pennsylvania to refineries and export terminals in Marcus Hook, PA. "There is a duty to protect our air and water, and when companies harm these vital resources through negligence - it is a crime," AG Shapiro said. "By charging them, we can both seek to hold them criminally accountable and send a clear message to others about how seriously we take protecting the environment and public health."

Pipeline Developer Charged Due to Drinking Water Contamination in Pennsylvania -Pennsylvania’s attorney general filed criminal charges against the developer of a pipeline that takes natural gas liquids from the Marcellus Shale gas field to an export terminal near Philadelphia.According to Attorney General Josh Shapiro, Sunoco Pipeline LP, owned by Energy Transfer, spilled thousands of gallons of drilling fluid in Pennsylvania in 2020, reported CBS Pittsburgh. Energy Transfer faces 48 criminal charges, most of them for releasing industrial waste at 22 sites in 11 counties across the state, contaminating the drinking water of at least 150 families statewide.“There is a duty to protect our air and water, and when companies harm these vital resources through negligence — it is a crime,” said AG Shapiro in a press release. “By charging them, we can both seek to hold them criminally accountable and send a clear message to others about how seriously we take protecting the environment and public health.”The spill occurred during construction of the Mariner East 2 pipeline, impacting wetlands, a stream and part of a 535-acre lake, reported CBS Pittsburgh. The Mariner East 2 Pipeline project crosses 17 counties in the southern tier of Pennsylvania. According to the AG press release, Energy Transfer received permits that allowed horizontal directional drilling as the construction method, repeatedly allowed thousands of gallons of drilling fluid to escape underground. The multibillion-dollar pipeline project has been under critical watch; A statewide grand jury subpoenaed the company for documents relating to the release of drilling fluids and effects on water supplies.One resident found that testing revealed that she had high concentrations of E. coli and fecal coliform in her water. According to Energy Transfer in a recent earnings report, the attorney general has been looking at “alleged criminal misconduct involving the construction and related activities of the Mariner East pipelines.”

Pa. attorney general announces criminal charges against Mariner East pipeline owner for leaks Pennsylvania's attorney general filed criminal charges Tuesday against the developer of a problem-plagued pipeline that takes natural gas liquids from the Marcellus Shale gas field to an export terminal near Philadelphia. Attorney General Josh Shapiro announced the case at a news conference at Marsh Creek State Park in Downingtown, where Sunoco Pipeline LP spilled thousands of gallons of drilling fluid last year. The spill, during construction of the troubled Mariner East 2 pipeline, fouled wetlands, a stream and part of a 535-acre lake. "The case I am here to announce today began through a referral by the district attorneys in Chester, Delaware and Berks Counties," Shapiro said. "And it's important to note that while we are here in Chester County, this has had a broad impact across our commonwealth. From Washington and Westmoreland Counties in western Pennsylvania, to Blair and Huntingdon and Cumberland, all the way to Berks and Delaware, and of course, right here in Chester County and southeastern Pennsylvania." Energy Transfer, Sunoco's owner, faces 48 criminal charges, most of them for releasing industrial waste at 22 sites in 11 counties across the state. Shapiro said Energy Transfer contaminated the drinking water of at least 150 families statewide. The charges are for “illegal behavior that related to the construction of the Mariner East 2 pipeline that polluted our lakes, our rivers and our water wells and put Pennsylvania’s safety at risk,” said Shapiro, speaking with Marsh Creek Lake behind him. Messages were sent to Energy Transfer seeking comment. The multibillion-dollar pipeline project has been the focus of criminal probes. At one point, a statewide investigating grand jury subpoenaed the company for documents relating to the inadvertent release of drilling fluids and effects on water supplies. The August 2020 spill at Marsh Creek was among a series of episodes that has plagued Mariner East since construction began in 2017, making it one of the most penalized projects in state history. The company has paid more than $16.4 million in fines for polluting waterways and drinking water wells, including a $12.6 million fine in 2018 that was one of the largest ever imposed by the state Department of Environmental Protection. State regulators have periodically shut down construction. But environmental activists and homeowners who assert their water has been fouled say that fines and periodic shutdown orders have not forced Sunoco to clean up its act. They have been demanding revocation of Mariner East’s permits. “...This company has no respect for Pennsylvania’s laws, our communities, and our shared natural resources,” said PennFuture President and CEO Jacquelyn Bonomo. “This is a company that has routinely contaminated drinking water supplies, fouled our wetlands, streams and lakes, and has been fined more than $16 million for its repeated failures to operate safely and within the bounds of Pennsylvania law." "The Mariner East Pipeline has been a constant source of sinkholes, drinking water contamination, and drilling mud spills for the families in its path and we join the Attorney General in calling on the DEP to review their regulations and asking the legislature to pass meaningful legislation to hold polluters accountable," Parzen said. "Our families and neighbors have simply waited too long for justice for their poisoned land and water."

The Mariner East pipeline has spilled thousands of gallons of drilling fluid, contaminating land and water across Pennsylvania. Now the developer faces criminal charges. - The corporate developer of a multibillion-dollar pipeline system that takes natural gas liquids from the Marcellus Shale gas field to an export terminal near Philadelphia was charged criminally on Tuesday after a grand jury concluded that it flouted Pennsylvania environmental laws and fouled waterways and residential water supplies across hundreds of miles.Attorney General Josh Shapiro announced the sprawling case at a news conference at Marsh Creek State Park in Downingtown, where Sunoco Pipeline LP spilled thousands of gallons of drilling fluid last year. The spill, during construction of the troubled Mariner East 2 pipeline, contaminated wetlands, a stream and part of a 535-acre lake.Energy Transfer, Sunoco’s owner, faces 48 criminal charges, most of them for illegally releasing industrial waste at 22 sites in 11 counties across the state. A felony count accuses the operator of willfully failing to report spills to state environmental regulators.Shapiro said Energy Transfer ruined the drinking water of at least 150 families statewide, releasing a grand jury report that includes testimony from numerous residents who accused Energy Transfer of denying responsibility for the contamination and then refusing to help.The Texas-based pipeline giant was charged for “illegal behavior that related to the construction of the Mariner East 2 pipeline that polluted our lakes, our rivers and our water wells and put Pennsylvania’s safety at risk,” said Shapiro, speaking with Marsh Creek Lake behind him.Messages were sent to Energy Transfer seeking comment. The company has previously said it intends to defend itself.The company faces a fine if convicted, which Shapiro said was not a sufficient punishment. He called on state lawmakers to toughen penalties on corporate violators, and said the state Department of Environmental Protection — which spent freely on outside lawyers for its own employees during the attorney general’s investigation — failed to conduct appropriate oversight.Residents who live near the pipeline and some state lawmakers said Mariner East should be shut down entirely in light of the criminal charges, but the administration of Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has long ignored such calls to pull the plug. There was no immediate comment from Wolf’s DEP. The August 2020 spill at Marsh Creek was among a series of mishaps that has plagued Mariner East since construction began in 2017. Early reports put the spill at 8,100 gallons, but the grand jury heard evidence the actual loss was up to 28,000 gallons. Parts of the lake are still off-limits.

Adorers of Blood of Christ lose court battle challenging natural gas pipeline - A religious order that has been challenging construction of a natural gas transmission line through its Pennsylvania property for years expressed disappointment that a federal court judge dismissed their lawsuit rooted in religious freedom claims.Attorney Dwight Yoder, representing the Adorers of the Blood of Christ, said the dismissal of the lawsuit by U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Schmehl was not surprising, given the judge’s similar decisions in earlier claims against construction the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline and its builder, Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co.The lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania in Reading was grounded in the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, or RFRA. The Adorers had sought a trial to present evidence about the practice of their faith and their belief that as Christians they are called to protect creation from desecratio“The courts have consistently sided with the fossil fuel companies in these decisions, and we respectfully disagree with the judge,” Yoder told Catholic News Service Oct. 1, the morning following Schmehl’s ruling. “We think the Religious Freedom Restoration Act was adopted by Congress and Congress gave specific instructions. It’s supposed to trump and preempt other federal laws,” Yoder said. “Congress instructed the judiciary to apply that law to protect religious liberty. In this case that’s not what’s happening here. They’re protecting fossil fuel companies. We disagree with the court’s analysis.”

PA Landowners Get Class Action OK’d Against EQT re Gas Storage -- In July 2018, a group of 100+ southwestern Pennsylvania landowners sued EQT for failure to pay them rental fees for storing natural gas under their properties (see100+ PA Landowners Sue EQT re Gas Storage Field Payments). In July 2019, that same group filed a request in U.S. District Court to upgrade the lawsuit to class action status, potentially including thousands of affected landowners (see PA Landowners Seek Class Action Against EQT re Gas Storage). Good news (for the landowners): The judge in the case agrees with their petition and is upgrading the case to class action status.

Owners Alleging EQT Mooches Gas Storage Get Class Status -- A Pennsylvania federal judge agreed with more than 100 Pennsylvania landowners that a class action is the best way to resolve their claims that EQT Corp. has improperly stored natural gas beneath their homes without paying them. In an order Wednesday, U. S. District Judge Cathy Bissoon said she is prepared to certify the group of landowners once they and EQT hash out some final details about who qualifies as a class member. The judge said the evidence shows EQT was aware they needed to secure land-use rights to store gas in the caverns beneath the landowners' property and compensate landowners accordingly,. . .

Seneca Resources seeks certification for Appalachian production - Pennsylvania natural gas producer Seneca Resources Co. recently announced it entered into an agreement with Project Canary, a company aiding the oil and gas industry to operate cleaner and more efficiently, to obtain an independent responsibly sourced gas (RSG) certification for approximately 300 million cubic feet per day of the company’s Appalachian production. Project Canary’s certification process focuses on air, land, water, and community impacts and analyzes more than 600 unique operational and environmental, social, and governance (ESG)-related data points. The certification process will cover nearly one-third of Seneca’s natural gas production. “Sustainability, continuous innovation, and best-in-class environmental performance are embedded in our guiding principles and culture,” David Bauer, National Fuel president and CEO, said. “Seneca’s commitment with Project Canary seeks to independently verify our existing operational practices and further strengthen the Company’s ESG commitments. We are excited to work towards independent validation of our leading operational and environmental practices, many of which are standard across our Appalachia assets.” Seneca plans to install continuous monitoring devices at three well-pad locations to provide real-time, site-level emissions data. Seneca is the exploration and production segment of National Fuel Gas Co. and produces natural gas and oil reserves in the Appalachian Region, including the Marcellus and Utica Shale.

Should oil and gas companies be exempt from Pennsylvania's hazardous waste laws? - Environmental Health News —In the wake of growing concerns over the oil and gas industry's handling of radioactive waste, activists and policymakers are working to change laws that exempt the industry from safety regulations.For decades, national environmental organizations have tried unsuccessfully to close federal loopholes that exempt the oil and gas industry's radioactive waste—which has been linked to elevated cancer rates—from regulation. Industry and government reports indicate that these exemptions persist because the cost of treating the waste as hazardous would be tremendous.Meanwhile, other industries that generate radioactive waste—like nuclear energy, research, and pharmaceutical industries—are meticulously regulated by multiple federal agencies."Radioactive wastes generated by these industries are regulated differently depending on the particular sources of radiation involved and risks posed from exposure, contamination, and accident potential," Aaron Flyer, an environmental lawyer in Washington, D.C. who is a former nuclear engineer, told EHN."The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) doesn't get involved unless you're operating under an NRC license," Flyer explained. "The oil and gas industry isn't generating radioactive materials for commercial use or disposing of [waste] regulated under the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, which would require an NRC license, even though their operations pick up naturally occurring radioactive materials—it's just incidental to their operations."In Pennsylvania, these legislative loopholes have resulted in radioactive oil and gas waste at municipal landfills and sewage treatment plants that aren't equipped to handle it, being intentionally spread on roadways and farmland, and contaminating waterways used for drinking water, fishing, and swimming.Now, amid growing concerns about potential cancer risk associated with that waste, community advocates and some policymakers in Pennsylvania are trying to close loopholes at the state level—while also trying to prevent neighboring states from bearing the burden as a result."We've blindly trusted this industry for the past decade and we're seeing worse health impacts and weakened water quality. It's time for elected officials to start protecting us," Veronica Coptis, executive director of the nonprofit Center for Coalfield Justice, told EHN.Pennsylvania legislators have introduced three bills that would close the state's loopholes, and the Center for Coalfield Justice is collecting signatures for a petition supporting that legislation.

After PennEast is canceled, what is the status of this Lehigh Valley pipeline project? - - Thr PennEast Pipeline is canceled, but another natural gas pipeline project touching the Lehigh Valley is proceeding as planned. First proposed in 2017, two years after PennEast, Adelphia Gateway LLC is repurposing an existing pipeline and adding new facilities between the Martins Creek Terminal in Lower Mount Bethel Township and Marcus Hook Industrial Complex in Delaware County. It “is independent of PennEast and is not impacted by the recent decision,” a spokeswoman told lehighvalleylive.com last week. PennEast announced Sept. 27 it “has ceased all further development” of a brand-new 120-mile pipeline linking Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale natural gas-production region to Mercer County, New Jersey. The decision came in the face of continued resistance on the New Jersey portion of the line. Adelphia Gateway is a subsidiary of NJR Pipeline Co., which itself is owned by New Jersey Resources Corp.The project repurposes an 84-mile-long, 18-inch-diameter pipeline built in the 1970s to carry oil, so that it can transport natural gas, and also includes use of a 4.4-mile-long, 20-inch-diameter natural gas line terminating at Martins Creek.Adelphia bought these former Interstate Energy lines from Talen Generation LLC for $189 million and is building $143 million worth of new facilities, for a total estimated project cost of $332 million. The project is designed to tie-in to existing pipelines and carry natural gas for domestic use, Adelphia Gateway says. The new facilities include two 5,625-horsepower compressor stations, one outside Quakertown in West Rockhill Township, Bucks County, and another at Marcus Hook in Lower Chisester Township, Delaware County. Adelphia last December told FERC it is building an additional 3,000-horsepower compressor at Marcus Hook to deliver natural gas to South Jersey Gas Co.

NJ gas pipeline station linked to climate change concerns — Federal officials have tied a certain, yet undefined concern over climate change impact to a proposal to develop and upgrade natural gas compressor stations in North Jersey. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) staff said in an environmental impact statement that compressor station upgrades along the Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company's 300 Line in New Jersey and Pennsylvania would not result in significant environmental impacts, "with the exception of climate change." The pipeline project as proposed would develop a new electric-driven compressor turbine facility in a former quarry near the Monksville Reservoir in West Milford. Turbine upgrades are also planned at existing stations in Wantage and Pennsylvania. All three would pump 115,000 dekatherms of natural gas each day into Westchester County, New York, to end a Con Edison moratorium on new gas connections.Residents, municipal governing bodies and environmental nonprofits in New Jersey have contested the project due to concerns over ground and surface water impacts, air quality, safety, fracking and climate change, among other issues.

Plugging abandoned oil and gas wells could help save the environment – and jobs - CBS ---It is estimated there may be a few hundred thousand abandoned wells in Pennsylvania — some located in the woods, along riverbanks, in people's yards and even inside their homes. These wells are left behind — orphaned to the state — after their owners, often oil and gas companies, go bankrupt or when the wells fall into disrepair. Once in state hands, it is the government's responsibility to plug the wells when they break. The EPA estimates there may be over 2 million abandoned wells across the nation. In early June, we followed Don Cornell of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to an emergency call in the town of Bradford to plug a leaking well in someone's backyard. "This old oil and gas well came in because the landowner had a complaint. He noticed he had a puddle of oil in his backyard," explained Cornell.Cornell says most of the wells that they deal with are from the early 1900s; there is no current owner and the companies are long gone or went bankrupt. "They didn't take care of the wells back when they were first drilled and walked away," he said."I've been in this position now for almost 11 years and I'm still amazed with what we come across, where the wells are in streams in the river — islands on the Allegheny River, there's wells there," Cornell said. Even inside people's houses?"Yep. In basements and foundations, they're just everywhere. And their driveways, when they don't know about it until one day oil start seeping up through their driveway."Leaking wells are not only a local environmental hazard — they can also be a big contributor to warming the climate. Dr. Tony Ingraffea, a Cornell University professor and expert in this field, says many of these wells leak methane — a greenhouse gas much more potent than carbon dioxide."Especially during the first 10 years, that methane molecule traps 100 times [the heat] that carbon dioxide does," Ingraffea explained. That's why he says says there is an urgency to plugging these wells: "Turn down methane and you get an immediate response." A new study by Ted Boettner of the Ohio Valley River Institute, a clean energy group, finds that plugging abandoned wells in the four-state area of Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and Pennsylvania alone could create over 15,000 jobs per year over 20 years.But in Boettner's view, the problem is just too big and money from the federal government can go a long way to help."In 2018 states only spent about $53 million. Plugging orphan wells, if you look at the entire problem, that number could be about over $60 billion around this country, just dealing with the orphan wells," he said. "So states are really struggling to deal with this problem. And this is a good example where the federal government can come in and provide some investment and get people back to work in jobs that they want to have."

As Massachusetts envisions a fossil fuel-free future, gas companies are quietly investing billions in pipelines - More than 21,000 miles of aging gas pipelines lie under the streets in Massachusetts, nearly enough to encircle the earth. When researchers began discovering about a decade ago that tens of thousands of leaks across that vast network discharged tons of hazardous methane into the air, the Legislature went to work. A law was passed, and in short order, gas companies embarked on a massive, years-long upgrade. Since then, the gas companies have slogged through a slow, expensive process of digging up pipes and replacing them with new ones meant to last more than half a century. Costs soared. And something else happened: The state passed a climate law that effectively called for the end of natural gas. Now, a detailed analysis of the cost and effectiveness of the program, to be released Monday, is raising questions among some experts about whether the program should be modified or even scrapped, potentially allowing money to flow to other climate-related needs. “The question people need to ask is: The world has changed; does this program really make sense any more given climate change, the fact that we’re moving toward a low-carbon economy, and that the Commonwealth has very aggressive climate mandates?” said Dorie Seavey, an economist who conducted the study on behalf of the advocacy group Gas Leaks Allies, a coalition of scientists, activists, and environmental organizations working to reduce methane emissions from natural gas. Seavey’s report analyzed records that gas companies are required to file to the state listing repairs they make under the program and the cost. The report found that the price tag of the pipeline replacement program has ballooned to $20 billion, an amount rivaling the Big Dig. According to the report, the program incentivizes replacing pipes over making repairs, which typically cost less and don’t last as long.

Advocates say they're being ignored in future-of-gas talks - As Massachusetts gas companies start legally mandated investigations into their role in a clean energy future, advocates are concerned that stakeholder voices calling for aggressive decarbonization, environmental justice, and a fair transition for fossil fuel workers are being shut out at a crucial moment in the process. While the gas companies contend they are committed to soliciting and incorporating stakeholder feedback, advocates say the utilities are failing to fully engage with their concerns. At the same time, the state has rejected advocates’ requests for increased oversight from regulators. “It’s important for our perspective to be at the center of this and right now it feels like we’re much more of an audience,” said Debbie New, a participant in the Gas Leaks Allies coalition. “When questions about labor, equity, health, or safety are asked, we are told they will consider them later, rather than making them integral to the process.” In June 2020, Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey asked the state’s department of public utilities to open an investigation into the future of the natural gas industry as the state moves toward its goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The department launched the investigation in October of that year with the stated goal of developing “a regulatory and policy roadmap to guide the evolution of the gas distribution industry.” Only a handful of states have taken similar actions. Colorado announced a similar investigation on the same day as Massachusetts; New York and California began proceedings earlier in 2020.

Over town objections, $100M Charlton natural gas pipeline and facility slated for final approval -- A pipeline and natural gas liquidation plant proposed in Charlton was recommended for approval on Sept. 20 and will go up for a final vote before the Massachusetts Energy Facilities Siting Board next week, according to a notice on Mass.gov. Northeast Energy Center, LLC, which is registered to Philadelphia energy infrastructure company Liberty Energy Trust, is proposing construction of a liquefied natural gas facility and pipeline in Charlton. The project will cost $100 million, including the cost of land acquisition, according to the siting board's tentative decision report. The plant would liquefy pipeline natural gas, store the LNG, and load tanker trucks. It would be capable of storing 2 million gallons of LNG and producing up to 250,000 gallons per day, according to the siting board’s tentative decision. . In a letter on Sept. 24, the Charlton Planning Board expressed disappointment with the siting board’s tentative decision as it would exempt the project from zoning bylaws and exclude the town from formally reviewing the project.

Judge rules against Bullitt County landowners who sought review of LG&E pipeline decision - A judge quashed an effort by Bullitt County property owners who wanted a fresh look at a decision that let Louisville Gas & Electric Co. condemn land for a proposed natural gas pipeline. The group, whose land lies along the pipeline route, had argued that Bullitt Circuit Judge Rodney Burress had not considered whether the line will “primarily benefit” bourbon maker Jim Beam, which operates a plant in Clermont.But that’s not what Kentucky law requires, Burress wrote in rulings filed in late September. Instead, he noted, the law simply requires a utility to show that there is a public use.Buress concluded that the project “would undoubtedly serve a broader public purpose in addition to greatly benefitting Jim Beam.”The judge also wrote that the property owners “have yet to provide any evidence to counter the fact that 9,500 customers need reliable gas service and an additional 451 have been denied service.” And Burress dismissed other arguments made by landowners, concluding that there was nothing new that hadn’t already been considered in his original condemnation ruling in May. Among them was a “smoking gun” allegedly related to the pipeline route that the judge said wasn’t part of the eminent domain lawsuits.

Liberty Utilities seeks PUC OK for 20-year natural gas contract - Liberty Utilities on Wednesday made its case before the Public Utilities Commission to bring more natural gas to New Hampshire. At issue is a proposed 20-year contract between Liberty Utilities and the Tennessee Gas Pipeline, which would bring 40,000 dekatherms of natural gas per day to the state, a 20 to 25 percent increase to the company’s current capacity. The Conservation Law Foundation opposes the plan, arguing that Liberty has failed to consider lower cost alternatives. The contract needs approval from the PUC before it can be finalized. The Tennessee Gas Pipeline plan follows a few other failed proposals that Liberty put forward to procure more natural gas, a move the company says is necessary to meet customer demand and ensure reliability. Projects that Liberty has previously put forward but were later abandoned include the Northeast Energy Direct and Granite Bridge pipelines. Both of those projects were much larger and more costly than the agreement with Tennessee Gas Pipeline, which wouldn’t require new construction but would involve repairs and upgrades to existing infrastructure totaling $45 million. At the hearing, Liberty called on two of the company’s employees to testify about their role in preparing the agreement with Tennessee Gas Pipeline, including Liberty attorney Michael Sheehan, who called the pipeline a great solution for increasing natural gas capacity cheaply. The Conservation Law Foundation called one witness, David Hill, a managing consultant for a Vermont-based clean-energy consulting group called Energy Futures Group Inc. Hill testified that Liberty failed to consider alternatives that could reduce the need for natural gas, such as increasing energy efficiency or electrification. Hill has also testified that Liberty did not analyze the environmental impacts of pipeline updates as required by New Hampshire statute.

‘Completely out of the norm’: Central Virginia counties protest Chickahominy Pipeline plan — Louisa County asked the Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC) on Sept. 27 to reject a company’s request that they be exempted from regulatory oversight on their plan to build a sprawling natural gas pipeline across five counties in central Virginia. As 8News previously reported that Chickahominy Pipeline, LLC petitioned the State Corporation Commission on Sept. 3 to issue a judgment releasing the company from oversight on its proposed pipeline. But in their new filing, Louisa County asked the SCC to reject Chickahominy Pipeline’s argument, saying the company should be subjected to state regulations on public utilities. Frustration with CPLLC among Louisa County’s board of supervisors was spurred on by concerns raised by residents and unresponsive company representatives. At a meeting of the Louisa County Board of Supervisors on Sept. 20, several residents came forward during a public comment period to voice their opposition to the pipeline, which would cross most of the county. “My big concern is that the state has set the goal of being through with any kind of fossil fuel energy generation by 2050,” said Steve Lucas. Company No-Show The Board of Supervisors had been in contact with CPLLC and had intended to hear from the company before filing a response with the SCC. Louisa County acquired maps of the pipeline’s proposed path through Encompass Energy, the company contracted to complete surveys of the land the pipeline would cross. Those maps were included as public exhibits for the meeting on Sept. 20, shown below.

Dominion Energy to sell Questar Pipeline to Southwest Gas for $1.9B - Richmond-based Dominion Energy Inc. has reached an agreement to sell its Questar Pipeline subsidiary to Las Vegas-based Southwest Gas Holdings Inc. for $1.975 billion, the Fortune 500 utility announced Tuesday. The all-cash deal includes the assumption of $430 million of debt. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter. Questar Pipeline is an interstate natural gas pipeline business that provides natural gas transportation and underground storage services in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado. The company owns and operates 1,867 miles of natural gas pipeline. It transports gas for delivery to markets in the West and Midwest, including southern Idaho. Southwest Gas Holdings Inc. provides natural gas service to more than 2 million customers in Arizona, Nevada and portions of California. Dominion began divesting its natural gas holdings in November 2020, when the utility sold the majority of its gas transmission and storage assets to Berkshire Hathaway Energy for approximately $2.7 billion in cash. In July 2020, Dominion’s then-CEO, Thomas F. Farrell II, who died in April, said that the company was taking the action as part of a “narrowing of focus,” repositioning Dominion strategically with a pure-play focus on its “state-regulated, sustainability-focused utilities” business. The Questar Pipeline sale was originally part of the Berkshire Hathaway deal, but that portion of the transaction was terminated in July. Dominion chalked up the termination decision to ongoing uncertainty associated with achieving clearance from the Federal Trade Commission under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976. Proceeds from the Questar Pipelines sale will be used to reduce parent-level debt, including retiring a 364-day term loan Dominion entered into in July, which Dominion used to repay a $1.3 billion transaction deposit made by Berkshire Hathaway Energy, according to a news release from Dominion.

Local advocates push against the possibility of Memphis's natural gas plants - Local environmental advocates want to make sure Memphis Light, Gas and Water is considering the potentially existential threat of climate change while the city-owned utility is bidding out its power supply. The Chickasaw branch of the Sierra Club wrote MLGW leadership and Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland a letter that raises issues with a key piece of Memphis' planned electricity strategy — natural gas. If Memphis were to leave the Tennessee Valley Authority and be on its own for its electricity supply, MLGW would rely on what could be several natural gas plants for much of the city's power and much of the reliability. MLGW is also seeking bids on renewable energy and battery storage. That planned reliance on natural gas is not what the Sierra Club would like to see. "...Beyond the existential threat posed by climate change and the moral imperative to address it, MLGW has a duty to consider the financial implications of a climate-constrained future and the potential impact of a fossil fuel-heavy portfolio on its ratepayers," the Sierra Club wrote. embedded: Sierra Club - MLGW by The Commercial Appeal on Scribd

Natural Gas Futures ‘Pressing Higher’ on Euro Gains Despite Mild Weather Domestically - Natural gas futures recovered most of their losses from late last week in early trading Monday, rising double digits as analysts continued to see indications of domestic prices responding to conditions in overseas markets. After settling 24.8-cents lower on Friday, the November Nymex contract was up 21.7 cents to $5.836/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. Rallying prices in after hours trading early Monday appeared to coincide with a move higher in European prices, according to Bespoke Weather Services.“Things continue to be volatile, and if you blink, you likely miss a move,” Bespoke said. “Our stance remains ‘slightly bearish,’ but keeping in mind that there can, and likely will be, wild moves in both directions until we reach the time when the bearish weather pattern starts taking on more importance in price action, which may not occur for another week or so.”The firm lowered its projected gas-weighted degree day total for October as a whole based on weekend changes in the weather data, a result of new days rolling into the back end of the projection period that “remain very warm/low demand.”The forecast showed nearer term demand gains, but only as a result of higher expected cooling demand, “something which will become meaningless in another week to 10 days at most,” Bespoke said. “Putting it all together, it remains a very bearish weather pattern.” EBW Analytics Group analysts similarly observed warming trends in the weekend weather data, with “enough rare mid-October cooling demand” in the forecast to “fully offset” losses in heating demand nationally. However, despite an “extreme pattern” the overall net increase demand remained “relatively modest.Elsewhere, in the domestic market, the EBW analysts noted continued weakness in liquefied natural gas feed gas demand. “Still, European gas markets are a key barometer for Nymex gas: this morning’s” Dutch Title Transfer Facility (aka TTF) “front-month’s gain of 7.2% contributed to the Nymex November contract’s increase,” the analysts said. “The November contract is pressing higher this morning, but very weak short-term fundamentals remain a key source of downward pressure that could help lead a highly volatile market lower.”

U.S. natgas rises on higher demand, soaring global prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained over 2% on Monday on forecasts power generators will burn more of the fuel this week than previously expected and as record global gas prices keep demand for more U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. Even though the weather is expected to remain milder than normal on average across the United States through mid October, lingering pockets of heat were still expected to keep air conditioners humming in some parts of the country this week. Front-month gas futures rose 14.7 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $5.766 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Earlier in the day the contract was up about 7%, putting it on track for its highest close since February 2014. Global demand for coal and gas has exceeded pre-COVID-19 highs with oil not far behind, dealing a setback to hopes the pandemic would spur a faster transition to clean energy from fossil fuels. Gas prices around the world have soared to all-time highs for several days in a row as low stockpiles in Europe and insatiable demand in Asia cause the two regions to compete for spare LNG cargoes. Prices in Europe jumped over 80% in September, rising for a seventh month in a row, as the amount of gas in storage in some European countries fell to dangerously low levels ahead of the winter heating season. The world's top commodity trading houses, meanwhile, are being told by brokers and exchanges to deposit hundreds of millions of dollars in extra funds to cover their exposure to soaring gas prices. Analysts have said that stockpiles in some European countries were over 20% below normal for this time of year. In the United States, meanwhile, inventories were expected to reach about 3.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the end of October. Analysts said that should be enough for the U.S. winter heating season even though that amount would fall short of the 3.7 tcf five-year (2016-2020) average for that time of year. Belief that the United States will have enough gas in storage for this winter and a lack of capacity to export more LNG has kept U.S. prices from rocketing along with Europe and Asia, but pipeline constraints and competition for expensive LNG exports will boost prices to multi-year highs this winter in California and New England. Data provider Refinitiv projected that U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from an average of 85.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 83.6 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv expected on Friday.

NatGas Price Explodes Higher Closing at $6.31, Highest in 12 Yrs -- Natural gas futures jumped to the highest settlement price in 12 years–$6.31/MMBtu–as global gas supply shortages stoke concerns about U.S. shortages coming this winter. Spot prices for physically traded gas also jumped yesterday. The NGI Spot Gas National Avg. was up another 32.0 cents to $5.970. Overall production dipped a bit yesterday helping to feed the fears. From NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index: Natural gas futures broke through $6.000/MMBtu for the second time this week as U.S. production took a notable step down on Tuesday at the same time global supply concerns roiled the domestic market. The November Nymex gas futures contract surged 54.6 cents to settle at $6.312. December gas finished at $6.432, up 52.6 cents on the day. Spot gas prices also continued to mount hefty increases despite a generally mild weather pattern in place across the country. Stubbornly strong power burns lifted NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. up another 32.0 cents Tuesday to $5.970. Though the domestic supply picture has vastly improved over the past month, several maintenance events — common during the shoulder season — resulted in a steep decline in output across the country. Wood Mackenzie said top day production data showed production falling around 1.7 Bcf/d day/day to 91.2 Bcf/d early Tuesday. North Louisiana led the declines as production slid about 335 MMcf/d along the Tennessee Gas and Gulf South pipelines. Wood Mackenzie analyst Laura Munder said Gulf South began maintenance Tuesday at Carthage Junction, which is expected to impact upstream expansion receipts, and at the Magasco Compressor Stations, which would impact West 30 from Magasco to South TX (Delivery). Both maintenance events are expected to continue until Friday. Tennessee does not have planned maintenance underway, “but the drop is localized at one gathering system interconnect, so it is likely unreported field work,” according to Munder. In the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin, Transwestern Pipeline began annual testing at the WT-1 Compressor Station in Carlsbad, reducing capacity from around 630 MMcf/d to about 280 MMcf/d until Friday. Overall Rockies production was down about 300 MMcf/d, with the largest drop in the Denver-Julesburg Basin along Colorado Interstate Gas. Munder said there is no associated maintenance with the production cut. From Bloomberg: Natural gas futures jumped to the highest settlement price in 12 years in New York as global gas supply shortages stoke concerns for U.S. shortages. As the northern hemisphere heads into winter-heating season, low U.S. auxiliary supplies have sparked concerns about potential shortages as demand for the furnace fuel ramps up. Gas futures rose 9.5% to close settle at $6.312 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since December 2008. Traders and brokers are “definitely considering that there’s a high potential for the market to have to move into what we would call gas-rationing pricing which simply is that you basically have to preserve gas in your inventories to meet deliverability needs,” said Nina Fahy, head of North American natural gas analysis at research firm Energy Aspects Ltd. Many are bracing for a brutally cold winter to deplete U.S. supply, despite mild weather forecasts for the winter season.

U.S. worries about winter prices as global natural gas shortage nears borders - Regional natural gas markets in the United States are seeing prices for this winter surge along with global record highs — suggesting that the energy bills causing headaches in Europe and Asia will hit the world’s top gas producer before long. Gas prices in Europe and Asia have more than tripled this year, causing manufacturers to curtail activity from Spain to Britain and sparking power crises in China.The United States has been shielded from that global crunch because it has plenty of gas supply, most of which stays in the country since U.S. export capacity is still relatively small. The benchmark U.S. natural gas contract has been rallying, lately hitting seven-year highs, but its $5.62 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) price is a far cry from the $30-plus being paid in Europe and Asia.

U.S. natgas volatility jumps to a record as prices soar worldwide -- Volatility in U.S. natural gas futures hit a record Tuesday as an energy crunch in major world markets pushed up prices globally. - Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia are at record highs as major markets such as China struggle to find enough fuel to meet demand, which has bounced back from the coronavirus-induced slowdown faster than anticipated. In Europe, prices have risen more than 500% this year on concerns that current low levels of storage will be insufficient for the winter. That has fed through US natural gas futures, which recently closed at a 12-year high of $6.31 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). While this is still a far cry from prices in Europe and Asia where natural gas is five times more expensive, the market has become increasingly volatile as competition increases for limited US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. In the United States, implied volatility – a measure of expected volatility in the market – hit an all-time high of 122.5% on Tuesday, topping the prior record of 117.5% in November 2018. Wild moves are caused by merchant commodity firms, hedge funds and other major investors in the market who find themselves exposed to unexpected price rallies. Companies that place misdirected bets on the markets are sometimes forced to move positions quickly to cover their losses, further exacerbating volatility. There have been no recent reports of the hedge fund failing, but Stater, which invested in gas, has reportedly lost about $130 million. In contrast, commodity giant Endurand has posted bigger returns due to rising prices. The natural gas market is experiencing a series of wild swings as power shortages in Asia and Europe have triggered panic to secure supplies. Competition between Europe and Asia for limited LNG cargo and other energy supplies has led manufacturers to reduce activities in Europe and lead to a power crisis in China. Global gas prices have hit a record high of around $40 per mmBtu in Europe and $35 in Asia. The last time volatility soared so aggressively was in November 2018, the volume of gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) reached a record 1.6 million contracts.

U.S. natgas drops near 10% as output rises, extreme volatility continues (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped over 10% on Wednesday after soaring to a 12-year high in the prior session as extreme volatility for energy prices around the world continues. Analysts said U.S. futures rose on Tuesday as soaring global gas prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports high. They said it dropped on Wednesday as the market shifted focus back to the situation in the United States where output is growing and utilities likely added more gas than usual to stockpiles for a fourth week in a row last week. Since the middle of August, global gas prices have repeatedly hit fresh record highs as Europe worries it may not have enough gas in storage for the winter and insatiable demand for the fuel in Asia caused utilities around the world to compete for available LNG cargoes. Front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 63.7 cents, or 10.1%, to settle at $5.675 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That was the biggest daily percentage drop since September 2020. Weeks of rapid changes in U.S. gas futures boosted implied volatility, used as a determinant of an option's premium, to an all-time high on Tuesday. Analysts have said gas stockpiles in some European countries were more than 20% below normal for this time of year. In the United States, meanwhile, inventories were expected to reach about 3.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the end of October. Analysts said that should be enough for the U.S. winter heating season even though that amount would fall short of the 3.7 tcf five-year (2016-2020) average for that time of year. Belief that the United States will have enough gas in storage for this winter and a lack of capacity to produce more LNG for export has kept U.S. prices from rocketing to the record levels seen in Europe and Asia. However, pipeline constraints and competition for expensive LNG were expected to boost prices to multi-year highs in California and New England this winter. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 91.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With gas prices at or near record highs of $46 per mmBtu in Europe and $35 in Asia, versus just over $6 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce. Data provider Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slipped from an average of 10.4 bcfd in September to 10.0 bcfd so far in October with short-term upsets at a few Gulf Coast plants and Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland expected to remain shut for another week of planned maintenance. But no matter how high global prices rise, the United States only has the capacity to turn about 10.5 bcfd of gas into LNG. Global markets will have to wait until later this year to get more from the United States when the sixth liquefaction train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass and Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana are expected to start producing LNG in test mode.

US gas storage fields see largest injection of current season: EIA | S&P Global Platts --US natural gas storage volumes in the week ended Oct. 1 increased by the largest build of the current injection season, the Energy Information Administration reported Oct. 7. NoStorage fields injected 118 Bcf which proved more than the 111 Bcf build expected by a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts. The build reported in the EIA's Weekly Storage Report was more than the five-year average of 81 Bcf and last year's 75 Bcf injection in the corresponding week. It was also the largest injection of the year so far. US storage volumes now stand at 2.811 Tcf, which is 532 Bcf, or 14%, less than the year-ago level of 3.820 Tcf and 172 Bcf, or 5%, less than the five-year average of 3.464 Tcf. The Midwest region continued to stockpile volumes, adding 37 Bcf for the week ended Oct. 1. Storage injections in the Midwest have picked up even more to begin October as the region attempts to close the deficit to last year in the final month leading up to the winter withdrawal season. Midwest inventories sit at 971 Bcf, slightly below the five-year average. Injections have climbed to an average of 4.3 Bcf/d to start the month, which is more than double the rate witnessed last October, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. The uptick in injections appears unrelated to demand as power burns are tracking relatively in line with where they were last month. However, the region has sharply reduced outbound flows to Eastern Canada this month, with throughput averaging 1.3 Bcf/d to begin October, 500 MMcf/d lower than last month. The NYMEX Henry Hub November contract added 7 cents to $5.74/MMBtu during late afternoon trading on Oct. 7. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 67 Bcf build for the week ending Oct. 8. This would measure 12 Bcf less than the five-year average. LNG exports have decline during the week in progress. Total US feedgas deliveries have remained below 10 Bcf/d since Oct. 5 driven mainly by Freeport LNG, according to Platts Analytics. Feedgas deliveries to Freeport dropped from over 2 Bcf/d to just 1 Bcf/d on Oct. 5, rebounding above 1.5 Bcf/d on Oct. 6. The declines were likely due to operations at the export facility as both the feeder pipelines, NGPL and Gulf South, saw roughly 50% reductions each on the day. Despite global LNG prices reaching new all-time highs, US feedgas this October has averaged just 10 Bcf/d, more than 2 Bcf/d below the max capacity. The lower utilization rates of US export facilities this month has been due to fall maintenance activities on both the pipeline and export facility side. Roughly 2 Bcf/d of upside for LNG feedgas demand remains for the back half of the month as Freeport and Cove Point return to full operations, while Sabine Pass Train 6 ramps up commissioning. The strong demand globally for US LNG cargoes this winter is driving an LNG feedgas forecast of 12.3 Bcf/d from November 2021 through March 2022 as US export facilities are likely to be at or near 100% utilized. This should keep upward pressure on Henry Hub prices this winter.

Natural Gas Futures Unchanged Despite Wild Intraday Swings Following EIA Data -- With European natural gas prices continuing to sell off and U.S. fundamentals remaining firmly in bear territory following the government’s latest storage report, futures prices slid early. The November Nymex contract touched a $5.393/MMBtu intraday low but popped quite a bit given little change in the global backdrop, settling Thursday at $5.677, up two-tenths of a cent day/day. Spot gas prices took another nosedive, sending NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. down 27 cents to $5.445. With pleasant fall weather expected to stick around for another few weeks at least — and storage inventories set to swell further because of it — there’s not a lot to get excited about in the domestic market. This was made clear on Thursday after the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data indicated that inventories are quickly closing the gap on the five-year average. The EIA reported a stunning 118 Bcf injection for the week ending Oct. 1, coming in about 10 Bcf higher than market consensus and above even the highest estimate ahead of the report. Projections in a Bloomberg survey ranged from builds of 101 Bcf up to 114 Bcf, with a median 105 Bcf injection. A Wall Street Journal poll included injections as low as 84 Bcf, but the average still landed at a stout 102 Bcf. Reuters’ poll was wider, with high-side estimates hitting 115 Bcf and the median injection coming in at 104 Bcf. NGI modeled a 114 Bcf injection. For comparison, the EIA recorded a 75 Bcf injection in the same week last year, while the five-year average build is 81 Bcf. The EIA’s 118 Bcf figure was the second in a row that surprised to the upside. Participants on The Desk’s online chat Enelyst attributed the hefty injection — the largest for the reference week in a decade — to strong wind generation that grabbed some market share from gas. Bespoke Weather Services chief analyst Brian Lovern called the 118 Bcf injection “a very ugly number” in terms of supply/demand balances. Using recent balances and extrapolating forward, he said the market is on pace now to reach the five-year average in terms of end-of-season storage levels, above 3.7 Tcf. Broken down by region, the South Central region posted a plump 41 Bcf increase in storage inventories, including 21 Bcf in nonsalt facilities and 20 Bcf in salts, according to EIA. The Midwest added 37 Bcf to stocks, and the East added 31 Bcf. Inventories in the Mountain and Pacific regions each climbed by 5 Bcf. Total working gas in storage as of Oct. 1 stood at 3,288 Bcf, which is still 532 Bcf below year-ago levels and 176 Bcf below the five-year average, EIA said. Despite the clearly bearish storage data, prices bounced off lows not long after the EIA report was released. This could be because a strong injection figure was expected. It also could be because tighter conditions are expected next week. However, traders also may have been hesitant to send prices much lower given the tight supply backdrop overseas and likelihood of robust export demand in the coming months.

Exxon Sees $700MM Windfall from Gas Rally | Rigzone Exxon Mobil Corp. said higher global natural gas prices will increase third-quarter profit by about $700 million, a sum that should help the oil giant reduce its debt pile. Gas, for years a laggard to more profitable crude, will probably be the biggest uplift to earnings compared with the prior quarter, the Irving, Texas-based driller said in a regulatory filing Thursday. Surging demand for the fuel has elevated prices from Britain to Beijing. Europe in particular is suffering an acute shortage and faces stiff competition from Asia for supplies as countries work to amass reserves before winter descends on the northern hemisphere in a matter of weeks. Exxon’s profit uplift from gas is likely to be a leading indicator for Big Oil earnings, with Royal Dutch Shell Plc also well-placed to gain from higher prices for the fuel. The extra cash will help Exxon whittle away its borrowings, which rose to a record high last year due to the pandemic-induced crash in oil prices. Higher oil prices will increase earnings by about $400 million, the company said. Wider refining margins and reduced downtime for maintenance work will add $600 million. Chemicals, which enjoyed record second-quarter profits, will see a $300 million decline in earnings, Exxon said.

Natural gas prices are skyrocketing around the world. Here's why the U.S. may not suffer as much - A global energy crunch is sending natural gas prices soaring in the U.K., Europe and Asia, hitting record highs. However, experts say the stratospheric prices seen in Europe are unlikely to carry over to the States.Much will ultimately depend on what the winter weather brings. But the U.S. is better positioned heading into the colder months, given that it's the world's largest natural gas producer and that inventory levels are not as depleted as they are in Europe."We're at a unique point in time now where just all energy prices are going up," Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities, equity derivatives and cross-asset quantitative investment strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said last week on CNBC's "The Exchange." "The U.S. is much more insulated from this global energy trend than the rest of the world," he added.That's not to say U.S. prices won't be volatile. Natural gas futures settled at their highest level since December 2008 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the contract traded as high as $6.466 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Natural gas for November delivery has since eased from that level, but it's still on track for the seventh straight week of gains. The contract currently trades around $5.63 per MMBtu, which is more than double where prices were at the beginning of the year. But the moves abroad are far more extreme. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that in Europe prices are up fivefold, while in the U.S. and Asia prices are about 1.5 times higher. In Europe, the price spike in natural gas is equivalent to if oil were trading around $200 per barrel."The importance of these moves on inflation, growth and external accounts are not to be underestimated," the firm wrote in a note to clients. "These price moves are a big deal."Coal and oil prices are also jumping. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, topped $80 per barrel on Friday for the first time since November 2014. International benchmark Brent crude, meanwhile, traded at its highest level since 2018. Analysts say that elevated natural gas prices could even prompt utilities to swap the fuel for oil.

US Natural Gas Drilling Activity Steady as Oil Patch Expands Further - The U.S. natural gas rig count finished flat at 99 for the week ended Friday (Oct. 8), while continued expansion in the oil patch lifted the combined domestic tally five units higher to finish at 533, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). A net gain of five oil-directed rigs in the United States for the week put the combined domestic tally at nearly double the 269 rigs active in the year-earlier period. Land drilling increased by seven week/week to offset a two-rig decline in offshore drilling. Horizontal rigs increased by nine, offsetting a four-rig decline in vertical units, according to the BKR numbers, which are based partly on data from Enverus. The Canadian rig count climbed two units week/week to end at 167, up from 80 at this time last year. Four natural gas-directed rigs were added there, partially offset by a two-rig decline in oil-directed drilling. Broken down by play, the Permian led with a three-rig increase for the week, bringing its total to 266 rigs, more than twice the 130 rigs running there a year ago. Elsewhere among plays, the Eagle Ford and Marcellus shales each added a rig to their respective totals, while one rig exited in the Utica Shale. In the state-by-state breakdown, Texas saw a net increase of four rigs, while West Virginia added two. California and Oklahoma each added a rig week/week, while Louisiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania each dropped one rig, according to BKR. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its updated International Energy Outlook earlier in the week, and the report predicts continued growth in world energy demand and global oil and natural gas production through 2050. The agency predicted a nearly 50% increase in global energy use from 2020 to 2050. This is primarily a result of projected economic and population growth for nations outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), particularly in non-OECD Asia.

Electric fracturing is catching on, but environmentalists are not impressed--Low-carbon hydraulic fracturing is gaining traction across the U.S. But since it still extracts the very oil and gas that fossil-fuel critics want the world to stop consuming altogether, not everyone’s convinced.The process of fracturing shale rock formations under high pressure by blasting water, sand and chemicals deep underground is an inherently dirty business. Once a typical shale well is drilled, a frack fleet descends on the site, hooking up a series of giant diesel pumps that can run uninterrupted overnight. At any one time, there can be upwards of 220 such fleets working across the U.S.In response to the attention of environmentalists and investors scrutinizing its ESG—or environmental, social and governance—credentials, the industry is increasingly touting electric or low-diesel machines that are replacing conventional diesel fleets. The number of U.S. frack fleets running on electricity or a mixture of diesel and natural gas skyrocketed to more than 100 in September—comprising about 45% of the country’s working fleets. That’s more than three times the 30 or so in use before Covid-19, according to Joseph Triepke, partner at energy research firm Lium LLC. He estimates e-fracking or dual fracking fleets will make up about 55% of active fleets next year.The new systems, which started to gain traction in 2019, not only offer lower emissions but also potential fuel-cost savings for operators. But critics say whatever emissions are being eliminated during the fracking process itself are still dwarfed by those created when the oil and gas that’s extracted ends up being burned. Plus there’s the inconvenient truth that fracking is still fracking. The loud and messy process has been accused of contaminating water supplies and causing earth tremors, though advocates argue the fuel it extracts can help the U.S. move away from dirtier coal.Switching to electric-powered frack fleets “doesn’t really matter in the overall scheme of things, if you look at the emissions associated with the lifecycle of natural gas,” said Arvind Ravikumar, a research associate professor of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering department at the University of Texas at Austin. “This would be like buying a plane ticket to go from New York to Tokyo, but then wringing your hands over whether you should take the stairs at the airport or the escalators. It really doesn’t make a difference.”

The oil and gas industry is using Louisiana’s climate task force to push carbon capture -- Louisiana is facing dangerous effects of climate change more acutely than ever: Sunny-day flooding is making coastal roads impassable, stronger hurricanes are demolishing homes, and intense heat is killing vulnerable residents during prolonged power outages. A 23-member task force assembled by the Democratic governor last summer is meant to chart a path to reduce Louisiana’s contributions to climate change. But the oil, gas, and chemicals industries are using the group to push for policies to extend the state’s dependence on fossil fuels—particularly through carbon capture, use, and sequestration. The technology involves capturing carbon dioxide, or CO2, from industrial facilities before it enters the atmosphere and piping it deep underground to be stored or used to increase production of oil and gas wells. The state’s unwavering support of the oil, gas, and chemical industries has made it difficult to reduce emissions, fund coastal restoration, or address extreme weather. The energy sector has immense power in the Republican-controlled legislature, which would need to approve any plan put forth by the task force. At least four industry appointees serve on the task force, including a corporate lobbyist, two trade group representatives and a power company executive. The Speaker of the House designated the lobbyist, who works for oil and gas company BHP Group. An administrative team supporting the task force expected leaders of the House and Senate to designate other lawmakers to represent them, according to internal emails obtained by Southerly and WWNO. Gov. John Bel Edwards has said the long-term goal is to cut Louisiana’s greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2050, meaning the oil and gas industry could thrive as long as it found ways to offset or capture its emissions. Many Louisiana officials insist the industry must be core to the state’s economy. But Logan Atkinson Burke, the executive director of the power consumer advocacy group, Alliance for Affordable Energy, disagrees. “For 20 years our poverty rate has remained around 20%,” Burke said. “To lift up this particular industry and say, ‘we have to protect that at all costs,’ and not ‘we have to protect Louisianans at all costs’ has felt upside down for me.”

Henry Hub physical flows hit 13-year highs amid rising LNG exports. --Henry Hub has long been the center of the universe for the Lower 48 natural gas market, but what it represents has changed dramatically since its inception, particularly over the past decade. It has gone from being a benchmark pricing location for a vibrant producing region, to being situated in the fastest-growing demand region and a key hub for wheeling feedgas supply to the proliferating LNG export facilities in Louisiana — all with little change to its infrastructure. As this occurred, the gas price at Henry has gone from being among the lowest in the country to one of the most premium. Physical volumes exchanged at the hub, which have always been dwarfed by financial trades there (and still are), have climbed in recent years and are now at the highest levels since 2008. Moreover, the inflows are concentrated on just a couple of pipelines, and those key interconnects are at risk of becoming constrained. In today’s RBN blog, we provide an update on the shifting gas flows at Henry Hub. The last time physical flows at Henry Hub were this high, in the 2008-09 time frame, Gulf of Mexico offshore natural gas production was well over 6 Bcf/d; the Haynesville Shale in western Louisiana was still in its early stages of growth and volumes had just started to take off; the Marcellus Shale in Appalachia was still in its infancy; and all the offshore and onshore supply converging on the pipeline network in Louisiana, including Henry Hub, was flowing northbound to serve the gas-thirsty Northeast markets. Now, offshore production is less than half of what it was then, but Haynesville production hit a record 13.4 Bcf/d in September, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The same pipelines that used to flow north now bring 3-5 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica gas supply into Louisiana, mostly via Perryville Hub in northeastern Louisiana — and, yes, Henry Hub in the southeast — to meet growing demand along the Gulf Coast, primarily feedgas for LNG exports. The Henry Hub pricing location in Vermilion Parish, LA, has been used as the basis for domestic gas deals for decades and is the delivery mechanism for the third-largest commodity futures trading instrument in the world — the CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures contract (behind only WTI and Brent crude). In recent years, it also served as the benchmark for the first wave of U.S. LNG export contracts. (We delved into the formation, evolution, and rationale for the benchmark trading location in our Henry the Hub, I Am I Am blog series, and we highly recommend you revisit those blogs to learn how the hub works.) But the physical infrastructure at the hub has changed little over the decades, and, despite its industry benchmark status and highly liquid futures contract, physical gas flows utilizing those assets were not the driving force there. In fact, physical trade volumes at Henry historically were driven less by physical flows and more by Intra-Hub Transfers (IHT), a “behind-the-scenes” accounting mechanism that gives counterparties the ability to exchange gas there through title transfers, without any physical movement of gas.

Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale Set for November | Rigzone - The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has announced that it will hold an oil and gas lease sale for the Gulf of Mexico on November 17, in compliance with an order from a U.S. District Court. Lease Sale 257 will include approximately 15,135 unleased blocks located from three to 231 miles offshore in the Gulf of Mexico with water depths ranging from nine to more than 11,115 feet, BOEM highlighted. The latest lease sale, which is scheduled to be livestreamed from New Orleans, will be the eighth offshore sale under the 2017-2022 Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing Program, BOEM noted. Some blocks are excluded from the sale, BOEM outlined, including those subject to the congressional moratorium established by the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006, blocks adjacent to or beyond the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone in the area known as the northern portion of the Eastern Gap and whole blocks and partial blocks within the boundaries of the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary. BOEM noted that it will include lease stipulations to protect biologically sensitive resources, mitigate potential adverse effects on protected species and avoid potential conflicts between oil and gas development and other activities and users in the Gulf of Mexico. Fiscal terms include a 12.5 percent royalty rate for leases in less than 656 feet of water depth and a royalty rate of 18.75 percent for all other leases issued pursuant to the sale, BOEM revealed. The organization said it will be accepting bids by mail only for the lease sale and highlighted that it reserves the right to reject bids received.

With Biden administration, Everglades oil drilling plan may face challenge --A Texas company’s plans to drill for oil in the Everglades may have a tougher time winning approval, now that an administration that’s skeptical of fossil fuels has taken over in Washington.Burnett Oil Co. has proposed drilling at two sites in Big Cypress National Preserve, important Florida panther habitat that sprawls across both sides of Alligator Alley. Although oil drilling has taken place there on a modest scale since the 1970s, the potential expansion has generated intense opposition from environmentalists.They hope to find an ally in President Joe Biden, who has taken steps toreduce the use of fossil fuels and has attempted to impose a moratorium on new oil and gas leases on federal land.“If the Biden administration permits this project to proceed, this would be the first and only new industrial oil development allowed to be built inside a national park unit anywhere in the country since he took office,” said Melissa Abdo, regional director of the National Parks Conservation Association.“It would run completely counter to the administration’s climate goals. We have every hope and expectation that Interior Secretary [Deb] Haaland will listen to the many voices, including indigenous ones, speaking up in opposition to this alarming proposal.”Drivers experience Big Cypress as a 30-mile blur of trees along both sides of Alligator Alley. But behind the fences that keep wildlife off the interstate stands important habitat for the Florida panther, red-cockaded woodpecker, black bear, alligator and many other species. The preserve is a popular destination for hunting, fishing, hiking and bird watching.Burnett Oil, which did not respond to requests for comment, did exploratory seismic work during the Trump administration, using sound waves to look for oil. The work had been approved during the Obama administration.Since these initial operations, a new administration has taken over and begun to implement policies less friendly to the oil industry. Biden announced a moratorium on new oil and gas leases on federal land and began to implement tougher policies to fight climate change, which is largely driven by fossil fuels. The lease moratorium was rescinded this summer pending a court challenge, and the oil drilling proposal for Big Cypress would not have been affected anyway, since the mineral rights are in private hands. But environmentalists say they hope an administration concerned about climate change will take a critical look at the idea of extracting more oil from the Everglades.

Risk of oil spills may rise as climate change creates more monster storms -Hurricane Ida left a trail of destruction after slamming into the Gulf Coast, but offshore the Category 4 storm left something else in its wake: oil spills. Oil spills aren’t uncommon with strong storms, but as climate change pushes up sea levels and creates stronger storms with more moisture, offshore refineries are going to need greater and greater protections. The Gulf of Mexico is “particularly vulnerable” because of the prevalence of storms, the low-lying geography, sea-level rise, receding shorelines and the presence of oil facilities, Christopher Vaccaro, a spokesman for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told ABC News. Since offshore drilling began in the region in 1942, about 6,000 oil and gas structures have been installed in the Gulf of Mexico. On Sept. 4, the day before Ida made landfall in Louisiana, the Coast Guard announced that cleanup crews already were responding to a large oil spill at an offshore drilling about 2 miles south of Port Fourchon, Louisiana. The oil, which came from an underwater pipeline, appeared in satellite images to drift east for dozens of miles. More than 100 birds were found to be soaked in crude oil, according to the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, and the Coast Guard began investigating nearly 350 reports of oil spills as a result of the storm. “We’ve seen the damage that hurricanes do in regions that have offshore drilling and oil production and refining,” “And we can expect that to continue.” One of the many destructive results of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the 8 million gallons of oil spilled as a result of the Category 5 storm. And more similar storms are expected. Warming temperatures will increase the number of strong storms as well as the amount of moisture in them, wreaking havoc on infrastructure both onshore and offshore. Warmer sea temperatures allow the storm systems to intensify, while the increased moisture means to more rainfall and storm surge. The record-setting 2020 hurricane season already has been rivaled in 2021 — with more than two months left in the season. “It seems pretty clear now that we can expect an increase in the frequency and intensity of storms,” Savitz said. “We’re seeing that happening … and it’s only going to continue to get worse.”

General Honore: Oil companies with abandoned wells should pay cost of clean up -A respected voice in Washington DC held a press conference Tuesday outside the Petroleum Club in Lafayette. Retired Lt. General Russell Honore wants oil and gas corporations to pay for oil wells left abandoned. The general says the impact is a concern not just for Louisiana but the entire world; a natural resource that runs the engines of the world has now become one of our greatest burdens. He says in Louisiana there are over 4000 abandoned oil wells and the cost to plug these orphan wells will cost over $500M. That’s money tax payers should not have to pay. He says let the oil and gas companies pay. “Delusion is not a solution to pollution. You can’t just dump oil in the ocean and think it’s going to go away. If you think I’m lying, these fishermen will show you dead spots where oil has seeped out of pipelines and abandoned wells. The other thing we got to get straight in America. The general previously served as commander of joint task force for Hurricane Katrina, coordinating military relief efforts in the wake of the storm, and more recently, he led the task force to review U.S. Capitol Security in the wake of the January 6 insurrection. “Without the ocean we are going to have struggle and its going fast.”

Oil spill reported at Texas City Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery - - A crude oil leak at a Texas City refinery has forced the closure of at least one road in the area.It happened at the Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery Wednesday morning.The leak was isolated to the refinery complex and was blamed on the failure of a pump seal at the facility, according to Bruce Clawson, interim director of Homeland Security for Texas City. No injuries were reported.Loop 197 from 4th Avenue South to FM 519 is closed to non-essential traffic due to the response to the spill.The Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery has a refining capacity of 593,000 barrels of oil per day,according to company documents. It wasn't clear how much oil had spilled Wednesday morning, but video from SkyEye showed a large amount of fluid spewing from a large tank at the site."The refinery has deployed air monitoring in the community as a precaution, and there is no indication of risk to the community," Marathon Petroleum Corporation communications manager Jamal Kheiry said in a statement. "Cleanup is underway, and regulatory notifications have been made."Kheiry also said an investigation is planned to determine what caused the spill.

Oil spill at Texas refinery causes road closures as emergency crews work to contain spread - Emergency crews are working to contain the damage from an oil spill at a refinery in Texas, where dramatic video footage shows a deluge of crude gushing out the side of a massive storage tank.The spill on Wednesday morning led to road closures as investigators descended to the Texas City refinery of Marathon Petroleum on Wednesday morning.Aerial footage from ABC 13 shows the area around the tanker in Galveston Bay saturated in the brownish-black crude oil while witness accounts posted to Facebook said the air surrounding the site “smelled horrible”.The leak comes less than a week after a leak in an oil pipeline off the coast of California spilt up to 144,000 gallons of crude oil into the Pacific Ocean.A pump seal failure at the storage facility lead to the leak, which was isolated to the refinery complex, Bruce Clawson, interim director of Homeland Security for Texas City, told ABC 13 News. Authorities blocked non-essential traffic on the nearby Loop 197 as emergency crews worked to contain the spill, but there was no shelter in place order issued. No injuries have been reported.Marathon Petroleum spokesman Jamal T Kheiry said in a statement an investigation would begin to determine the cause of the spill.“The refinery has deployed air monitoring in the community as a precaution, and there is no indication of risk to the community," the statement said. "Cleanup is underway, and regulatory notifications have been made.”

Marathon Texas Refinery Works to Contain Day-Old Oil Leak --Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s huge oil refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast continues to try to contain a crude leak more than 24 hours after crude began gushing from a storage tank on site, a regulatory filing from the company showed.The crude release at the Galveston Bay facility in Texas City began early Wednesday after a valve flange on the tank failed and oil began pouring into the tank’s containment dike, the filing with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality showed. Marathon is emptying the tank as quickly as possible to minimize pollution. The company said there were no injuries.Energy research and consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie estimated the crude tank’s capacity is 400,000 barrels. Marathon declined to discuss the size of the tank.The leak at the 593,000 barrel-a-day refinery is being contained within an earth dike and foam is being applied to reduce vapors. Equipment to remove the oil for processing and disposal is being deployed. Cleanup is underway and the crude spill remains on-site.Crude oil released from the storage tank remains contained on-site, and there has been “no indication of risk to the community,” spokesman Jamal T. Kheiry said in an emailed statement on Thursday. The company still doesn’t have an estimate on how much oil has been lost, he added.Shares of Marathon, the largest independent U.S. refiner, rose as much as 2.4% at 11:56 a.m. in New York. The incident started at 7:30 a.m. local time on Wednesday and is expected to be over by 7:30 p.m. Thursday, the filing showed. It estimated the leakage at 5,000 pounds of volatile organic compounds. A road running by the site was closed because of odors emanating from the spill, Bruce Clawson, emergency manager for Texas City, said Wednesday.

'Another Day, Another Catastrophic Oil Spill': Leak in Texas Fuels Calls to 'Keep It in the Ground' --A crude oil spill at a Marathon Petroleum refinery in Texas City outside of Houston on Wednesday — just the latest in a series of recent leaks — sparked fresh calls for rapidly phasing out fossil fuels and transitioning to 100% renewable energy."The crazy thing is to expect that this won't keep on happening every damn day until we just keep the oil in the ground. #KeepItInTheGround," tweeted Nathaniel Stinnett, executive director of Environmental Voter Project, with footage of the scene at the Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery.ABC 13 reports that Bruce Clawson, interim director of Homeland Security for Texas City, said the failure of a pump seal at the facility caused oil to pour out of the side of a tank. No one was injured but the incident led to road closures, according to Chron.Both Clawson and Marathon Petroleum spokesperson Jamal T. Kheiry said the spill is contained to the facility, which has a refining capacity of 593,000 barrels of oil per day."The refinery has deployed air monitoring in the community as a precaution, and there is no indication of risk to the community," Kheiry said in a statement. "Cleanup is underway, and regulatory notifications have been made." The incident in Texas City comes just days after one of the worst oil spills in Southern California's history—which also drew attention to national fossil fuel policies and practices."Fossil fuels pollute. First the California spill, now this," Northwest Progressive Institute tweeted Wednesday, linking to a report on the situation in Texas. "We must transition to a renewable energy future as fast as we can. That's why we need climate investments in the #BuildBackBetter bill."Democratic lawmakers and the White House are still negotiating the details of the Build Back Better bill. The climate and social safety net package, which is set to include several parts of President Joe Biden's agenda, has been held up by opposition from two right-wing Democrats.While welcoming the president and congressional Democrats' efforts to enact climate legislation via the budget reconciliation process, progressive campaigners have also called out the Biden administration for moving forward with fossil fuel leases for public lands and waters.Friends of the Earth Action echoed that criticism in a tweet about Texas, declaring, "Another day, another catastrophic oil spill that will massively harm local wildlife and environment."The Biden administration "claims to care about the climate crisis — yet it continues to open up public lands and waters to Big Oil," the group said. "This is why that cannot continue."

Abandoned oil well leaks throw one West Texas rancher into a battle over her land’s future - In the Permian Basin, thousands of oil and gas wells fill the landscape, and today some of that aging equipment is bursting and leading to uncontrolled leaks. Just this summer, one of these aged wells began leaking and spewing toxic water — more than 20 years after it was filled with concrete and abandoned — throwing one rancher into a bureaucratic nightmare filled with more questions than answers..“No one wants to discuss what it looks like when an oil well or an oil field dies,” Ashley Watt said, sitting in her home on her 22,000-acre ranch in Crane County.She hadn’t really thought about it before either. But over the last year, she’s come face-to-face with a long list of problems spawned from the aging oilfield dotting the horizon of her property. “Here’s some of it on the left and there’s another one over that hill,” she said.As we pushed through scrub brush, an acrid smell filled the air. Then, Watt pointed out a large black glob. “It is crude oil basically mixed with sand and just dried over time to create an oil-sandstone.”Corroding debris from companies lined her dirt roads. Pumpjacks, pipelines emerged from the ground. And dead mesquite leftover from past accidents filled the scenery where cows should be grazing.One after another, Watt pointed out scars left from the industry — sometimes pulling out a drone to get a better look at the landscape. Watt has had to pull dead wildlife out of multiples pools of crude left open at the base of pumpjacks — like this dead bird.“You want to see a gas leak before it’s treated…It’s like literally just a dead circle where everything is dead.”Walking up to an exposed pool of crude, Watt spotted something. “Oh here’s a dead bird. Look on the other side, laying right in there.”It’s a distressing sight, but Watt said it’s nothing compared to the existential threat a nearly 70-year-old oil well called “Estes #24” is causing her.The well was acquired by Chevron decades ago and by 1995 the oil company plugged and abandoned the Estes, filling it with cement to prevent it from leaking. But in early June, the well was discovered spewing toxic water believed to be from past oil production. “With the Estes #24 blowing out at the surface, that’s pretty much been my life,” Watt said.

Aerial and satellite imagery can find methane leaks. Will EPA bake the tech into new rules? - Methane emissions are a major driver of climate change, with a short-term global warming impact that’s about 80 times stronger than that of carbon dioxide. In the U.S., about a third of these methane emissions come from the oil and natural gas industries — and many of those leaks can be cost-effectively prevented, if they can be detected. New aircraft- and satellite-based technologies can dramatically expand the scope of methane-leak detection. Many oil and gas companies are already using them to reduce losses of a moneymaking resource — methane is the chief constituent ingredient of natural gas, after all. And methane is far more harmful to the climate when it’s leaked than when it’s burned to produce electricity, or even when it’s flared as a waste byproduct of oil drilling. In the next few weeks, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is set to release draft rules that will dramatically expand the agency’s role in regulating methane emissions across the oil and gas industry. One big question for industry insiders and climate activists is whether the EPA will build the latest leak-detection technologies into these rules. Will the agency drive the industry to embrace the technologies’ full capabilities? And if it does, how can it avoid costly or confusing requirements that could lead to legal challenges? The EPA took up these issues at a two-day virtual workshop in August, where independent researchers and oil and gas engineers agreed that a combination of ground- and air-based detection technology can dramatically improve visibility into methane leaks. In some cases, the data they provide can inform mitigation strategies that can quickly earn back their cost by preventing losses of the natural gas these companies make money by selling. Basing regulations on novel technologies poses risks, however. Regulations must undergo stringent technical vetting, and they’re vulnerable to legal challenges. But the methane-detection methods now being used fail to catch anywhere from one-third to one-half of the industry’s total methane emissions, according to the latest data. That means any rules that don’t integrate these new technologies may well miss a golden opportunity to address what scientists say is one of the most effective ways to combat climate change. “At least in the data we see, traditional technologies might not be enough” to achieve the major methane emission reductions called for by groups like the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency, said Matthew Johnson, an emissions expert and professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada. “We’d better be considering multiple technologies to find the one or two that work together,” he said. “That’s essential.”

United Energy to take possession of Wagoner County pipeline - Plano, Texas-based United Energy has agreed to buy a natural gas pipeline in Wagoner County, Oklahoma, formerly owned by Red Fork Energy, the company announced in a release Tuesday

California oil spill stokes concern for Great Lakes — The California oil spill that has contaminated miles of coastline is renewing concerns about the potential of an oil leak from Line 5, which runs under the Straits of Mackinac. An anchor strike is suspected to have caused the spill in California and the pipeline through the straits has dealt with an anchor strike before in 2018. Daniel Macfarlane, an associate professor at Western Michigan University’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, fears it could happen again. “An anchor strike is not just a risk, it’s already happened so it’s probably more a matter of time,” Macfarlane said. Enbridge, a Canadian company, also owns the pipeline that spilled oil into the Kalamazoo River in 2010. The disaster was the second biggest inland oil spill in U.S. history. “With Line 6B in the Kalamazoo River, that was over a million gallons and took Enbridge close to a day to discover it even had a spill,” Macfarlane said. Line 5 is much older than the California pipeline and Macfarlane says a major spill there would be even more catastrophic. Macfarlane, who is Canadian, says the pipeline provides very little energy to Michigan and little economic benefit. “It’s essentially just moving fossil fuels from Canada to another part of Canada with Michigan bearing the risk,” Macfarlane said. Macfarlane says the location of the pipeline would mean an oil spill would quickly flow in multiple directions. “A University of Michigan study a few years ago said up to 700 miles of coastline could be impacted by an oil spill from Line 5,” Macfarlane said. The company wants to build a tunnel to house the pipeline which would better protect it from anchor strikes. A lawsuit challenging a 2018 decision to create a Mackinac Straits Corridor Authority that would enter into a tunnel agreement was upheld by the appeals court. The second lawsuit brought by Attorney General Dana Nessel is seeking to void an easement where the pipe was built and remains in litigation.

Hoping to avoid Enbridge Line 5 shutdown, Canada asks U.S. to negotiate --The Canadian government wants a federal judge to halt Michigan’s efforts to shut down the Line 5 pipeline until Canadian and U.S. diplomats can talk it out.On Monday, a lawyer for the Canadian government alerted U.S. District Court Judge Janet Neff that Canada has officially invoked a 1977 treaty, part of which says that “no public authority” in either the U.S. or Canada can impede the flow of petroleum products through international pipelines like Line 5. Canadian officials argue that the treaty leaves Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer powerless to stop Canadian oil giant Enbridge Energy from operating Line 5, despite Whitmer’s order last winter for Enbridge to stop transporting petroleum products through the Straits of Mackinac by this past May (an order Enbridge has defied).Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a statement she's "profoundly disappointed" in the Canadian government. She called on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to reverse the decision to invoke the treaty and expressed confidence that Michigan will prevail in court. Michigan is, and will remain, a strong partner with Canada on a range of issues," Whitmer said. "However, I will not remain silent when the fate of the Great Lakes and Michigan hangs in the balance." Michigan and Enbridge are locked in legal battle over the shutdown order, awaiting a decision from Neff on whether the case will continue in federal or state court.Canadian officials have repeatedly argued that legal proceedings should pause until the U.S. and Canada have a chance to negotiate the pipeline’s fate — an argument opposed by attorneys for the state who noted that Canada had yet to launch a formal negotiation process.That changed Monday. In a letter to the judge, Canadian counsel Gordon D. Giffin said the country’s officials had used “diplomatic channels” to present U.S. officials an official request for negotiations.“Canada respectfully submits that with the triggering of the Treaty’s dispute settlement process, the Court should hold proceedings relating to Michigan’s Line 5 shutdown order in abeyance while the Article IX process is ongoing,” Giffin wrote.In a statement Monday, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel said she is “disappointed” by Canada’s letter, saying it provides “no legal basis for delaying consideration of our case.”“Neither the Treaty nor the dispute resolution process are relevant to the question now pending before the Court: whether the federal court has jurisdiction over the State’s suit against Enbridge,” Nessel said. “It is our position that the court can and should promptly rule on our motion to remand the case to state court.”

Editorial: Clock keeps ticking on Line 5 pipeline - Oil spills, in and of themselves, are bad news. They’re bad for the environment, as the petrochemicals foul waters, wildlife and human habitat. They’re bad for business, especially ones relying on a clean natural resources. But bad spills can still prompt good responses. Swift action. Effective clean-ups. Transparency on behalf of the responsible party. Unfortunately, this last pipeline rupture in California was not that. The 140,000 gallon spill came from a 17-mile long, 40-year-old pipeline owned by Amplify Energy Corp. An anchor strike from the influx in COVID-19-related cargo shipping traffic in Huntington Beach likely caused the 13-inch long gash in the pipe, according to preliminary reports. Divers Tuesday found a piece of the pipe bent and dragged 105 feet, according to USA Today. But beyond the strike itself, news now tells us what we’ve come to expect — revelations of botched responses. Yes, the company had an automated leak detection system and a 24/7-staffed control room. Yes, an alarm should have been triggered and people notified. Yes, the first report came by way of a bystanding ship that noticed the sheen. Yes, Amplify did get a low-pressure, “possible failure” alarm on the pipe. No, they did not shut it down until three hours later. No they did not inform the National Response Center for more than six hours. Yes, the Coast Guard was told about the spill from bystanding ships reporting the sheen, but no it did not investigate until nearly 12 hours later. In Michigan, we have our own stories, including the 840,000 gallon spill (nearly seven times the amount spilled in California) into the Kalamazoo River system via Enbridge’s 6B pipeline. Crude pumped for 17 hours before the response. Afterward, federal reports rapped Enbridge for knowing its 41-year old pipeline was in bad shape, and its own Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration for not doing its job. Enbridge’s Line 5 in Michigan was built in 1953. It too has seen anchor strikes and gaps in its required protective coating. What to do with it — whether to shut it down outright or run it through a utility tunnel under the lakebed — has effectively left it in stasis, operating and aging. No pipeline can operate indefinitely, no matter what some may posit about 68-year-old pipelines “built to last.” Even with supposed fail-safes, errors happen. But it’s the responses to these errors that eat away confidence in the ability to make good on a bad spill. Parties, now federal, state and private and nonprofit, need to quit stalling and resolve what to do with this aging infrastructure that puts 20 percent of the world’s fresh water supply at risk — before the spill.

Oil flows through Line 3, but cleanup work remains at site of ruptured aquifer – Forced by state regulators, Enbridge has launched a major cleanup effort in Clearwater County to repair the aquifer crews punctured during construction in January. Artesian groundwater has been welling up for more than eight months near this rural community, wasting at least 24 million gallons and threatening to dry out two rare and protected wetland areas nearby called fens. The breach is a significant blunder on one of the largest construction projects in the state's recent history, but it's been largely out of public view given the location and the fact the company failed to tell regulators about it for several months. The state Department of Natural Resources (DNR) revealed the problem only last month when it ordered Enbridge to pay $3.3 million for the damage and gave it 30 days to stop the uncontrolled flow of water. Enbridge now faces an Oct. 15 deadline to essentially cork the artesian well it created. Its plan is to drill a new well to pump out some of the water and then inject tons of grout into the ground to try to seal it. Outraged environmental groups, scientists and Ojibwe bands who opposed the pipeline dismissed the state's enforcement action as too little, too late. They say the rupture is exactly the sort of problem they warned would happen in Minnesota's watery landscape. White Earth tribal lawyer Frank Bibeau argued in court documents that the DNR would have learned about the rupture much earlier if it had held the requested public hearing before expanding Enbridge's water appropriation permit by nearly 10 times. "DNR is either unwilling or incapable of stopping Enbridge environmental destruction … at any price," Bibeau wrote in the motion seeking an injunction to stop the DNR from allowing Enbridge to appropriate water. Others say state regulators should have stopped Line 3 work when Enbridge was found to be out of compliance, and they don't understand how Enbridge was allowed to start the oil flowing. At a news conference Wednesday, White Earth Nation Chairman Michael Fairbanks decried Line 3's overall impacts, including the aquifer breach, and said he feels like pleas to lawmakers and regulators have fallen on deaf ears. "Please come up and see this and come look at this devastation to nimaamaa-aki, Mother Earth," Fairbanks said. "The damage has been done now." The ruptured aquifer is about a mile from the fens on Deep and Steenerson lakes. Unlike bogs fed by rain water, the calcareous fens — high in calcium — are fed by groundwater and the aquifer's loss of pressure could destroy them. They're home to threatened plants such as the hairy fimbry and the small white lady's slipper. "They are among the rarest freshwater ecosystems, and we are only just beginning to learn all the secrets that these beautiful little places hold," said Laura Triplett, chair of the geology department at Gustavus Adolphus College. The pierced aquifer is not the only accident along the Line 3 construction route. In August, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency disclosed at least 28 documented spills creating at least 10,000 gallons of muck. Aerial footage of the area around the rupture site shows a large area with pooled water and mud, and a road and staging area built of wood planks for equipment. Jeff Broberg, a professional geologist who directs the Minnesota Well Owners Organization, said the aquifer each day is losing enough water to fill 4 acres one foot deep, based on state estimates. "It's a lot of water," he said.

Revealed: pipeline company paid Minnesota police for arresting and surveilling protesters - The Canadian company Enbridge has reimbursed US police $2.4m for arresting and surveilling hundreds of demonstrators who oppose construction of its Line 3 pipeline, according to documents the Guardian obtained through a public records request.Enbridge has paid for officer training, police surveillance of demonstrators, officer wages, overtime, benefits, meals, hotels and equipment. Enbridge is replacing the Line 3 pipeline through Minnesota to carry oil from Alberta to the tip of Lake Superior in Wisconsin. The new pipeline carries a heavy oil called bitumen, doubles the capacity of the original to 760,000 barrels a day and carves a new route through pristine wetlands. A report by the climate action group MN350 says the expanded pipeline will emit the equivalent greenhouse gases of 50 coal power plants. The project was meant to be completed and start functioning on Friday.Police have arrested more than 900 demonstrators opposing Line 3 and its impact on climate and Indigenous rights, according to the Pipeline Legal Action Network. It’s common for protesters opposing pipeline construction to face private security hired by companies, as they did during demonstrations against the Dakota Access pipeline. But in Minnesota, a financial agreement with a foreign company has given public police forces an incentive to arrest demonstrators.The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, which regulates pipelines, decided rural police should not have to pay for increased strain from Line 3 protests. As a condition of granting Line 3 permits, the commission required Enbridge to set up an escrow account to reimburse police for responding to demonstrations.Enbridge told the Guardian an independent account manager allocates the funds, and police decide when protesters are breaking the law. But records obtained by the Guardian show the company meets daily with police to discuss intelligence gathering and patrols. And when Enbridge wants protesters removed, it calls police or sends letters. “Our police are beholden to a foreign company,” Tara Houska, founder of the Indigenous frontline group Giniw Collective, told the Guardian. “They are working hand in hand with big oil. They are actively working for a company. Their duty is owed to the state of Minnesota and to the tribal citizens of Minnesota.” “It’s a very clear violation of the public’s trust,” she added.

Oil Pipeline Protesters Are Building Trauma Support Centers --After the media spotlight faded and police forced oil pipeline protesters to pack up and leave in 2016, the struggle that began at the Standing Rock encampment in Sioux County, North Dakota was far from over. More than 800 Water Protectors had been arrested at the Oceti Sakowin resistance camp, where indigenous people and their supporters gathered to oppose the construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline. While the resistance has led to a temporary shutdown of the pipeline and triggered an environmental review, many of those who came to Standing Rock left traumatized, facing large medical bills and lengthy court battles. Timothy Cominghay, an indigenous volunteer who provided legal support for Standing Rock defendants, said he witnessed the effects of the trauma they had endured. “I've seen the end of these campaigns. People go home and die. People drink themselves to death. People go home and kill themselves,” he told Motherboard. “And, you know, on the other side, instead of going home and dying, they go to the next campaign. They carry all this pain and fear and trauma that they experienced with them and that just poisons that campaign before it even begins.” The next campaign has already begun. In Minnesota, more than 800 people have been arrested while resisting the Line 3 pipeline, an expansion to a 1960s-era oil line that crosses through Native treaty lands to bring roughly 760,000 gallons of tar sands oil per day from Edmonton in Alberta, Canada, to Superior, Wisconsin. Despite ongoing frontline resistance, the new pipeline became fully operational on October 1. The fight isn’t over, however, and supporters like Cominghay and are now building long-term support for pipeline resistors experiencing trauma at the Welcome Water Protectors Center, a Anishinaabe Akiing space resting on 1855 treaty territory on the Mississippi River that is run by Winona Laduke and other Water Protectors along with Honor the Earth. Over the past year or so, it has served as a publicly-facing Anishinaabe Akiing cultural and community center that helps guide new pipeline resistors in the struggle against Line 3. Now, the Center is reorganizing to provide the Water Protectors with peer-to-peer counseling, community, and a space for healing, said Cominghay.

Northern Oil inks $154M deal for North Dakota oil properties - Northern Oil and Gas on Thursday announced it will buy further interests in a fleet of oil wells in North Dakota for $154 million, its third significant acquisition in the past eight months. The seller in the latest deal is Texas-based Comstock Resources, which is controlled by the owner of the Dallas Cowboys football team, Jerry Jones. With the three acquisitions, Northern Oil is spending $382.2 million on new properties. The Minnetonka-based company also said Thursday it plans to increase its dividend — which was initiated in May — by 33% during the third quarter to 6 cents a common share. Northern is acquiring further interests in about 400 oil wells, which are operated by multiple companies. Northern holds existing ownership positions in 84% of those. Production from the new North Dakota properties is 4,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Northern Oil, which invests in leases and drilling projects, has branched out beyond its traditional turf of North Dakota this year. "This is our third major transaction this year in as many basins," Adam Dirlam, Northern's chief operating officer, said in a statement. In June, it announced deals totaling $102.2 million in the Permian basin, the nation's largest producer of shale oil. Those deals, which involved multiple sellers, cover 2,900 acres in New Mexico and Texas with expected production of 3,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day during 2021's second half.

Proposed Williams County pipeline to connect to Dakota Access - Kinder Morgan is planning a short pipeline in Williams County to connect to the Dakota Access Pipeline.A subsidiary of the company, Hiland Crude, is proposing a 2.9-mile pipeline beginning at its Epping Station to transport oil "to existing pipeline infrastructure where the product can be delivered to various mid-continent markets," according to an application the company filed with the North Dakota Public Service Commission.Kinder Morgan told the Tribune the pipeline will connect to Dakota Access, which runs from the Bakken oil fields of western North Dakota to Illinois. Dakota Access ends at an oil hub, and from there oil can be transported via other pipelines to places such as the Gulf Coast.The proposed Williams County pipeline would be 8 inches in diameter and made of steel. It's expected to transport 30,000 barrels of oil per day, though it would have the capacity to carry as much as 63,000 barrels per day, according to the application.The project is estimated to cost $5.4 million.

More than 9,000 gallons of brine spill near Williston - An estimated 9,240 gallons of produced water spilled Sunday, Oct. 3, at a saltwater disposal facility in Williams County, North Dakota, according to a news release from the state Department of Environmental Quality. Produced water, or brine, is a mixture of saltwater, oil and sometimes drilling fluids that is created during oil and gas production. Texas-based Oasis Petroleum reported the spill about five miles southeast of Williston occurred due to an equipment failure, though the cause of the spill is still under investigation. About 85 gallons of brine is estimated to have run off into a nearby agricultural field. Department officials will continue inspecting the site and monitoring remediation efforts, according to the release.

Oil washes ashore in Southern California as 126,000 gallons from spill threaten wildlife - Officials warned of an “environmental catastrophe” on Sunday after more than 120,000 gallons of oil leaked from a rig and washed up on beaches south of Los Angeles, threatening wildlife and closing popular shores.Authorities said Sunday afternoon that the heavy crude oil did not appear to be leaking anymore, but that the cause and timeline remained under investigation. The oil spill, a few miles offshore from Newport Beach and Huntington Beach, was first reported Saturday and leaked about 126,000 gallons spanning 13 square miles, officials said. The emergency sent people scrambling to contain the fallout and protect sensitive habitats.“This oil spill constitutes one of the most devastating situations that our community has dealt with in decades,” Huntington Beach Mayor Pro Tem Kim Carr said during a news conference on Sunday. She said authorities are looking at how to hold accountable the responsible parties and warned there will be “a lot more hitting our shores over the next few days.” Huntington Beach said it has deployed more than 2,000 feet of floating barriers called “booms” at seven wetland spots in an effort to contain the spill. But oil still “infiltrated” and caused damage in a wetlands area called Talbert Marsh, which is home to many bird species, according to Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley. The county is building a sand berm to keep the oil from intruding further, Foley said on Sunday.The damage to wildlife is still emerging. While Foley said dead birds and fish started to wash ashore, other officials said they could only confirm that one duck was “oiled” and is getting veterinary care. “We’re hoping we have minimal impact, but we’re preparing for the worst,” said Christian Corbo, a lieutenant at the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.Authorities said the oil came from Platform Elly, a pipeline operated by Beta Offshore, a Long Beach unit of Houston’s Amplify Energy. Speaking Sunday alongside officials from the responding agencies, Amplify Energy chief executive Martyn Willsher said that the company is investigating the spill and that divers are at a potential source site of the leak.He said the pipeline has been “meticulously maintained” throughout the ownership by Amplify and was “suctioned at both ends” to prevent more leaking. “Everything is shut down,” Willsher said. “Our employees live and work in these communities, and we’re all deeply impacted and concerned about the impact,” the executive said, adding, “We will do everything in our power to ensure that this is recovered as quickly as possible.”Huntington State Beach was closed, while the final day of a popular air show that drew 1.5 million visitors to area shores Saturday was canceled. Meanwhile, the city of Huntington Beach also closed much of its ocean and shoreline, officials said. Orange County Health Officer Clayton Chau urged people against swimming or even gathering on the affected beaches and warned that vapors from the oil spill could spread on the wind. Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) sent a letter to President Biden seeking major disaster declaration for Orange County, while local leaders said the booms aimed at containment could stay in place for weeks or months.

Massive oil spill hits Orange County beaches, killing birds, marine life, California - (videos) A massive oil slick originating from a pipeline leak hit the beaches of Orange County, California over the weekend, raising grave wildlife and environmental concerns.Residents of Newport Beach started reporting the smell of gas Friday afternoon (LT), October 1, 2021, prompting the city's police department to issue a community advisory about 19:45 LT, saying they are checking it out.¹The alarm was raised 24 hours later, when Orange County officials said they are dealing with a massive oil spill, with potentially catastrophic consequences.The leak is reportedly linked to a pipeline connected to a 41-year-old platform named Elly, located about 13.8 km (8.6 miles) off the coast.According to the president and chief executive of Houston-based Amplify Energy Corp., parent company of the pipeline’s operator, the potential source of the oil leak is located about 7.2 km (4.5 miles) off the coast, somewhere along the 28.1 km (17.5 miles) long pipeline to shore.As of October 3, the oil slick plume was ~10.7 km (6.6 miles) long, running from the Huntington Beach Pier down into Newport Beach, the City of Huntington Beach said in a news release. "At this time, due to the toxicity created by the spill, the City is asking that all individuals remain clear of the beach and avoid coming into contact with oiled areas."²In partnership with the Orange County Health Care Agency, the City made the decision to close the ocean and shoreline in Huntington Beach between the Santa Ana River Jetty and Seapoint Street.³At this time, it is unclear as to how long the ocean and shoreline closure will be in effect, or how long the oil spill clean-up efforts will take.Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley, whose district includes Huntington Beach, said Saturday oil has already washed up on the Huntington Beach beachfront. "We’ve started to find dead birds and fish washing up on the shore."On Monday, October 4, Folley said a wider area from the Huntington Beach Surf City all the way to Dana Point Harbor is impacted.⁴"Fisheries in the impacted area are now closed to give time to investigate any impacts to fish in the impacted area. Avoid fishing off piers, bridges, boats and docks, too.""While the overall clean-up efforts are being led by the Coast Guard, here in Huntington Beach, our local response efforts have been focused on two main priorities: protecting the health and safety of our residents and visitors; and preventing an ecological disaster by mitigating the oil spill impacts on our precious coastline and wetlands," city authorities said.Oil has also infiltrated Talbert Marsh, a 10 ha (25 acres) ecological reserve in Huntington Beach that is home to dozens of species of birds.⁵The oil will likely continue to encroach on Orange County beaches in the next few days, officials said.

An oil spill off the California coast destroyed a wildlife habitat and caused dead birds and fish to wash up on Huntington Beach, officials say - A swath of the Southern California coast is covered with oil after 3,000 barrels' worth gushed into the Pacific Ocean -- devastating some of the local wildlife, officials said.A pipeline breach occurred about 5 miles off the coast of Huntington Beach, Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley said Sunday."We've started to find dead birds and fish washing up on the shore," Foley said. "The oil has infiltrated the entirety of the (Talbert) Wetlands. There's significant impacts to wildlife there," she said. "These are wetlands that we've been working with the Army Corps of Engineers, with the Land Trust, with all the community wildlife partners to make sure to create this beautiful, natural habitat for decades. And now in just a day, it's completely destroyed."A total of 1,218 gallons of oily water mixture have been recovered from the spill, the United States Coast Guard said in a statement."This response is currently a 24/7 operation and response efforts are scheduled to continue until federal and state officials determine that the response to the crude oil spill is complete," the USCG statement read. It said that one oiled Ruddy duck has been collected and is receiving veterinary care and other reports of oiled wildlife are being investigated. The National Transportation Safety Board announced on Twitter that it's sending investigators to gather information and assess the source of the oil spill. The oil has spread between Huntington Beach and Newport Beach, officials said. The pipeline is owned by the Houston-based oil and gas company Amplify Energy, its president and CEO Martyn Willsher said at a news conference Sunday afternoon. "We are fully committed to being out here until this incident is fully concluded," Willsher said, adding the company is working with numerous local, state and federal agencies on recovery efforts. An oil sheen was first reported to the US Cost Guard shortly after 9 a.m. Saturday morning, the Coast Guard said in a press release. "It's probably been leaking longer than we know," Foley told CNN Sunday. Willsher said his company notified the Coast Guard Saturday morning when employees were conducting a line inspection and they noticed a sheen in the water.The spill -- equal to about 126,000 gallons of post-production crude -- is a "potential ecological disaster," Huntington Beach Mayor Kim Carr said Saturday. As of Sunday morning, "the leak has not been completely stopped," the city of Huntington Beach said in a press release. It said preliminary patching has been completed to repair the oil spill site, and additional repair efforts will be attempted. "Currently, the oil slick plume measures an estimated 5.8 nautical miles long, and runs from the Huntington Beach Pier down into Newport Beach," the press release said. "The oil has already infiltrated many of our wetlands in Huntington Beach in the Talbert area, and we want to do everything we can to prevent it from intruding into that area even further," Foley said.

Why did it take so long to identify Orange County oil spill? - Los Angeles Times - TK Brimer, who has owned the surf shop just steps from the sand on West Coast Highway for more than 40 years, is used to the unique odors that sometimes drift from the nearby coastline. But the aroma that hung outside his shop at 6:30 p.m. Friday evening was unique, he said. Around that time, the Newport Beach Police Department’s phones started ringing with residents throughout the city reporting the smell of gas. Police received enough inquiries that the department sent out a community advisory about 7:45 p.m. saying authorities were checking it out. But it was not until 24 hours later that authorities raised alarms that the Orange County coast was dealing with a massive oil spill with potentially catastrophic consequences. The time it took to determine the scope of the leak — more than 126,000 gallons of crude flowing from an oil platform off the coast — has sparked questions from residents and others about how the early hours of the crisis were handled. They also wonder why federal and local agencies were offering a much less dire assessment of the situation through Saturday evening. The oil slick is believed to have originated from a pipeline leak, pouring 126,000 gallons into the coastal waters and seeping into the Talbert Marsh At sunrise Sunday, oil was on the sand in some parts of Huntington Beach with slicks visible in the ocean as well. On Sunday evening, officials said they still didn’t know when the leak began or even whether it had been fully plugged. They said the leak is linked to a pipeline connected to Elly, a 41-year-old platform 8.6 miles offshore. The potential source of the oil leak is about 4.5 miles off the coast, somewhere along the 17.5-mile pipeline to shore, where crude is eventually delivered to a local refinery, Sometime Saturday morning, Amplify Energy notified the U.S. Coast Guard that an oil spill had occurred, after the company observed an oily sheen in the water. The Coast Guard said it received an initial report of an oil sheen at 9:10 a.m.

California Democrats blast offshore drilling in oil spill's wake --Several California Democrats are calling for limiting or halting offshore drilling in the wake of a major oil spill off the state’s coast this weekend. The 126,000 gallon spill prompted beach closures and reached coastal wetlands that are home to migratory birds. In the wake of the spill, Democrats rebuked offshore drilling and the oil industry, and House Democrats’ campaign arm used it to slam one area Republican. The new spotlight on the drilling, meanwhile, comes as Congress weighs a proposal to limit the practice as part of major infrastructure legislation. “The oil spill off the coast of Orange County reiterates the perils of offshore drilling,” Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) said in a statement. “This spill highlights why we must also take action to prevent future spills, including passing the West Coast Ocean Protection Act. Our bill would permanently ban oil and gas drilling in federal waters off the coast of California, Oregon and Washington,” she added. The state’s junior senator, Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), tweeted that the practice should end. “We’ve seen time and time again how damaging offshore oil spills are to our coastal ecosystems as well as to our economy. We have the power to prevent future spills—that’s why I’m committed to ending offshore oil drilling,” Padilla wrote. The spill came from a pipeline off the southern California coast and impacted areas including Huntington Beach and Newport Beach. It falls near a district represented by Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, who last year flipped a seat that was previously held by Democrat Harley Rouda. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released a statement criticizing Steel in the wake of the spill. “Orange County voters deserve to enjoy their beaches without fear of hospitalization. Michelle Steel’s toxic relationship with the fossil fuel industry is harming tourism, killing local wildlife, and endangering OC beachgoers,” said a statement from Adrian Eng-Gastelum, a spokesperson for the group.

Officials look to ship anchor striking pipeline as possible cause of California oil spill Authorities on Monday said they are looking into the possibility that a ship's anchor damaged a pipeline and caused the massive oil spill that started over the weekend and has affected multiple Southern California beaches.The oil spill is one of the largest in recent California history, with at least 126,000 gallons of crude leaking out into the coastline. Miles of beaches in Orange County could potentially be closed down for weeks as cleanup operations continue.Martyn Willsher, CEO of Amplify Energy, which operates the affected pipeline, said an anchor striking the pipeline is “one of the distinct possibilities," according to The Associated Press.Coast Guard Lt. Cmdr. Jeannie Shaye concurred with this, saying, "We’re looking into if it could have been an anchor from a ship, but that’s in the assessment phase right now." According to Willsher, divers have examined more than 8,000 feet of the pipeline and are concentrating on “one area of significant interest.” Soon after the oil spill began, workers moved to shut off the pipeline and retrieve as much of the oil as possible. However, by Sunday morning, Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley shared on Twitter that the spill had had "significant ecological impacts" on Huntington Beach. "We’ve started to find dead birds & fish washing up on the shore," Foley tweeted. As the AP noted, Orange County district attorney Todd Spitzer has said that he has tasked investigators with determining whether he could bring state charges for the spill. Spitzer also said Amplify divers should not be permitted to be near the pipeline without independent authority from him.

California Democrats blast offshore drilling in oil spill's wake -Several California Democrats are calling for limiting or halting offshore drilling in the wake of a major oil spill off the state’s coast this weekend. The 126,000 gallon spill prompted beach closures and reached coastal wetlands that are home to migratory birds. In the wake of the spill, Democrats rebuked offshore drilling and the oil industry, and House Democrats’ campaign arm used it to slam one area Republican. The new spotlight on the drilling, meanwhile, comes as Congress weighs a proposal to limit the practice as part of major infrastructure legislation. “The oil spill off the coast of Orange County reiterates the perils of offshore drilling,” Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) said in a statement. “This spill highlights why we must also take action to prevent future spills, including passing the West Coast Ocean Protection Act. Our bill would permanently ban oil and gas drilling in federal waters off the coast of California, Oregon and Washington,” she added. The state’s junior senator, Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), tweeted that the practice should end. “We’ve seen time and time again how damaging offshore oil spills are to our coastal ecosystems as well as to our economy. We have the power to prevent future spills—that’s why I’m committed to ending offshore oil drilling,” Padilla wrote. The spill came from a pipeline off the southern California coast and impacted areas including Huntington Beach and Newport Beach. It falls near a district represented by Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, who last year flipped a seat that was previously held by Democrat Harley Rouda. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released a statement criticizing Steel in the wake of the spill. “Orange County voters deserve to enjoy their beaches without fear of hospitalization. Michelle Steel’s toxic relationship with the fossil fuel industry is harming tourism, killing local wildlife, and endangering OC beachgoers,” said a statement from Adrian Eng-Gastelum, a spokesperson for the group. Steel spokesperson Danielle Stewart pushed back on the criticism in an email to The Hill. "While Michelle has spent the weekend engaged with local leaders, keeping the public informed on this crisis, and requesting a major disaster declaration from a silent Biden Administration, DCCC staffers inside the Beltway are doing what they do best — sending political emails just to score points off of a tragedy in Orange County — pathetic," Stewart said. In the aftermath of the spill, the lawmaker called on the White House for a disaster declaration. Asked whether the Biden administration is considering an emergency declaration, press secretary Jen Psaki deferred to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). “That would really be something typically that is requested by the governor and granted by FEMA, so I don’t have any updates on that,” she said.

Oil spill in California provides ammunition for anti-pipeline activists - The Washington Post — A large oil spill continued to spread across the coastal waters of Southern California on Monday, shutting down miles of beaches, closing the region’s busiest leisure port, threatening wetlands and wildlife, and raising fresh questions about the safety of U.S. pipelines.Federal and state officials opened a criminal investigation and said they were eyeing a ship anchor as a possible cause of the pipeline leak, which spread ribbons of sheen across some 13 square miles and was sending clumps of oil onto the shore. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) declared a state of emergency in Orange County to support the emergency response to the spill.Coast Guard Capt. Rebecca Ore called it “a complex, dynamic and evolving situation” as oil continues to flow south.“I know these beaches are incredibly important not just to the residents and citizens of Southern California, but to much of the country,” she said. “I know it’s a very tough situation to see the impacts.” On Monday, crews in hazmat suits raked up oil-soiled sand and dumped it into plastic bags, while others erected sand barriers to prevent petroleum from flowing into nearby marshes. Portions of the Talbert wetlands across from Huntington Beach were coated with sludge. The accident, which local officials as of Monday night estimated had poured as much as 144,000 gallons of oil into the waters and onto the shorelines of Newport Beach and Huntington Beach, also underscores the murky nature of who bears responsibility for pipeline accidents when the costs are far reaching.The issue of pipeline safety comes as climate activists are seeking to block new projects across the United States. Build Back Fossil Free, a coalition of climate and other activists, plans to protest outside the White House next week to call on President Biden to declare a climate emergency and block all new fossil fuel projects.“The oil spill demonstrates exactly why it’s so important for the Biden administration to act now on fossil fuels,” said Jamie Henn, one of the protest organizers, “rather than relying on long-term targets and a slow transition.”

Five things to know about the California oil spill - An oil spill off the coast of Southern California has sent up to 144,000 gallons from an oceanic pipeline into the sea, closing beaches and serving as a reminder of how U.S. energy sources can be calamitous to the environment. The spill isn’t as large or as devastating as others in recent history, but it’s had significant attention because of its proximity to millions of people. The spill comes from to an underwater pipeline connected to an offshore drilling platform called Elly. It’s not far from California’s Huntington Beach, though oil from the spill spread to beaches near a few cities in the region. Elly and the pipeline are operated by Beta Offshore Operating Co., which is a subsidiary of Amplify Energy. At the end of 2019, Amplify had 230 employees. A statement from the company on Monday said that Beta told the Coast Guard about the spill after noticing it on Friday. According to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, Beta has received 53 warnings and 72 severe citations for violations of its safety or environmental standards. It’s unclear what caused the pipeline to spew oil into the Pacific, though one possibility under investigation is whether the pipeline was struck by an anchor. “We’re looking into if it could have been an anchor from a ship, but that’s in the assessment phase right now,” Coast Guard Lt. Cmdr. Jeannie Shaye said on Monday. Amplify CEO Martyn Willsher similarly called an anchor “one of the distinct possibilities.” The spill is expected to impact wildlife and the economy. It has hit Huntington Beach’s Talbert Marsh — an area where 80 bird species have been counted. Some birds had been found covered in oil, but local news reported Monday that initial assessments showed fewer affected birds than originally expected. It’s also affecting beaches, prompting closures. “It settles into the sand, so people are stepping in it. It’s not attractive, it smells,” Steven Rosansky, president and CEO of the Newport Beach Chamber of Commerce, told The Hill in an interview on Monday. It’s also expected to hit the local economy given the importance of tourism in the region. California’s Department of Fish and Wildlife also halted fishing operations in the spill’s vicinity. Politicians and advocates who oppose offshore drilling in California and elsewhere say the spill shows why more should be done to either restrict or ban offshore drilling. The state’s two senators and several members of its congressional delegation are among the critics. “We have the power to prevent future spills—that’s why I’m committed to ending offshore oil drilling,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) said in a statement on Monday. Many environmental advocates say such drilling should be off limits. “Offshore drilling remains dirty and dangerous,” said Diane Hoskins, a campaign director for Oceana. “Unfortunately, this is not a surprising outcome because when they drill they spill.” It’s also happening as House Democrats are pushing to end offshore drilling in the Pacific Ocean — as well as in the Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A portion of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation proposal drafted by the House Natural Resources Committee seeks to do just that. While the event is considered a major spill, it’s not nearly as large as other infamous spills like the Deepwater Horizon spill in 2010 or the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989. Those spills released 134 million and 11 million gallons of oil, respectively, into the ocean. ]. It’s also not the area’s first spill. In 1990, the oil tanker American Trader spilled almost 417,000 gallons of oil near Huntington Beach, Calif. In that incident, the ship’s own anchor struck the cargo tank.

No more oil leaking, efforts continue to contain spill and find cause - Officials said no more oil is leaking into the waters off Huntington Beach, but weather and ocean flows will be key as they try to contain the spill that has already spread down as far as Dana Point.Officials with Amplify Energy, which operates the offshore oil rig believed to be the source of the leak, and with the U.S. Coast Guard said in response to a question they’re looking into a ship’s anchor striking and rupturing a pipeline as a possible cause of the spill of at least 126,000 gallons of oil.“That is one of the distinct possibilities,” Amplify CEO Martyn Willsher said Monday, Oct. 4.Willsher said the company hasn’t yet pinpointed the origin of the spill, but its divers have inspected 8,000 feet of pipeline and found an “area of interest.”Asked whether one of the many cargo ships at anchor waiting to enter the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach could have caused damage to the pipeline, Willsher said it’s a possibility that is part of the ongoing investigation. Port officials deferred questions to the Coast Guard.There are hundreds of ships out in the anchorage and the precise location of where those vessels were located, relative to the incident, is being assessed, U.S. Coast Guard Capt. Rebecca Ore said. Reports about a possible oil spill were left on a federal hotline Friday night, according to government records.The reports also came hours before officials warned people not to go in the ocean, as the slick grew to an estimated 126,000 gallons and threatened environmental harm to much of Orange County’s 42-mile coastline. The U.S. Coast Guard contacted county and Huntington Beach officials around 9 a.m. on Saturday, saying they had received reports about oil in the water off the Huntington Beach coast. By 12:15 p.m., the Coast Guard reported to those officials that the oil slick they were responding to was around 13 miles long.

Some oil from the California spill breaks up in ocean currents — Some of the crude oil that spilled from a pipeline into the waters off Southern California has been breaking up naturally in ocean currents, a Coast Guard official said Wednesday as authorities sought to determine the scope of the damage. Coast Guard Petty Officer Steve Strohmaier said some of the oil has been pushed to the south by currents. Storms earlier in the week may also have helped disperse the oil, which he said could make it more challenging to skim as it spreads out. "Most of this oil is separating and starting to float further south," he said while accompanying reporters aboard a boat to the scene of the spill. "The biggest problem is the uncertainty, the amount that leaked into the water. We are at this point unsure of the total amount that leaked out." The pipeline operator, Amplify Energy Corp., has publicly pegged the maximum amount of the spill at 126,000 gallons of heavy crude. But the company told federal investigators with the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration that initial measurements put the total only around 29,400 gallons. Federal officials also found that the pipeline owner did not quickly shut down operations after a safety system alerted to a possible spill. Questions remained about the timeline of the weekend spill, which fouled beaches and a protected marshland, potentially closing them for weeks along with commercial and recreational fishing in a major hit to the local economy. Some reports of a possible spill, a petroleum smell and an oily sheen on the waters off Huntington Beach came in Friday night but weren't corroborated and the pipeline's operator, Amplify Energy Corp., didn't report a spill until the next morning, authorities said. An alarm went off in a company control room at 2:30 a.m. Saturday that pressure had dropped in the pipeline, indicating a possible leak but Amplify waited until 6:01 a.m. to shut down the pipeline, according to preliminary findings of an investigation into the spill. The Houston-based company took another three hours to notify the U.S. Coast Guard's National Response Center for oil spills, investigators said, further slowing the response to an accident for which Amplify workers spent years preparing.

Southern California deals with fallout from massive oil spill as new details emerge - The Southern California oil spill, which has caused an environmental catastrophe on the coastline of Orange County, has made it abundantly clear that America’s infrastructure is obsolete and in urgent need of repair. The Elly oil rig, where the spill originated, and its accompanying pipes are over 40 years old, with oil production beginning as early as January 1981. Since then, the pipes have not been replaced, updated or reinforced.Amplify Energy Corp., the Houston-based energy company that owns the Elly oil rig, was in the process of upgrading some of its old, dilapidated oil pipes before the incident occurred, but there have been reports that oil leaks have occurred as far back as 1999 and again in 2014.These dangerously managed oil rigs and the crumbling infrastructure attached to them are riddled along the US coastline and have been ignored and left to deteriorate by their corporate owners. Near to the Elly rig is the Eureka oil rig which has had numerous problems in the past as well. Furthermore, the latest disaster recalls the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, which released 206 million gallons of oil and caused incalculable damage throughout the Gulf Coast region.Environmental advocates such as Miyoko Sakashita with the Center for Biological Diversity have advocated for the decommission of many of these outdated and heavily corroded oil lines as early as 2018, citing safety concerns and lack of oversight. As these warnings indicate, the volatility of the Elly oil rig is only the tip of the iceberg.Moreover, the unwillingness of oil owners to upgrade crumbling infrastructure has been aided and abetted by government regulators who, if not entirely ignoring safety regulations,issue slap-on-the-wrist fines allowing the companies to continue their hazardous operations. In fact, Beta Operating, the local company managing the Elly oil rig where the leak originated, has had a long history of violating federal safety regulations and compliance warnings. According to data released by the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), Beta Operating has been issued 125 noncompliance violations in total. The fact that this company can continue to operate despite the number of violations it has been issued has shown that the BSEE is not a serious institution that will prevent oil spills or enforce the safety and wellbeing of the population and natural habitats.

Surfers sidelined as California races to clean up oil spill - The Jakarta Post - Beaches normally thronged with the bronzed torsos of surfers are deserted as California races to clean up a huge oil spill. Up to 131,000 gallons of crude could have leaked into the Pacific Ocean on the west coast of the United States when a pipeline ruptured at the weekend. Authorities are investigating whether a ship's anchor could have ripped open the pipe, dragging it more than 100 feet (30 meters) along the seafloor. A 15-mile (24-kilometer) stretch of coast has been closed to the public -- including some prime surfing spots that are usually packed with boarders. "It's weird to see no surfing out there for miles. It's very strange," said Shawna Sakal, manager of a surf store just yards from Huntington Beach pier. "There's always people surfing, they're doing it year-round. The ocean is full of surfers, especially on the north and south side of the pier." Huntington Beach revolves around surfing. Equipment rental and sales stores jostle for space with surf schools. But almost all of them are now shuttered. For the tight-knit community of surfers, that's tough. "We have a bunch of friends that just surf, so sometimes we don't even text each other," said 18-year-old Jake McNerney. "We'll just see each other out there." More than 300 personnel are involved in the emergency response to the spill, which has been traced to a pipeline near Long Beach. Dozens of container ships are anchored off the harbor there -- one of the world's busiest container ports -- waiting for a berth in a pandemic-sparked shipping logjam. The Los Angeles Times cited a federal investigator as saying a misplaced anchor from one of these ships was the most likely cause of the pipeline's rupture. Officials said almost 5,000 gallons of crude have been recovered so far, and more than a dozen birds covered in oil have been rescued.

Oil tarballs wash up on San Diego beaches — Oceanside Lifeguards found several tar balls on the beach Wednesday night and reported them to the US Coast Guard and CA Wildlife Agencies. According to the county, tar balls were also spotted in Carlsbad. Crews fanned out along the southern California coast Friday. The Unified Command, which is made up of several different local, state and federal agencies, said they're continuing to do everything they can to prevent the oil from Huntington Beach from becoming a big problem in San Diego. The state installed boom barriers to prevent oil from seeping into the Agua Hedionda Lagoon --which proves intake water for the Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant. According to officials at the plant, as of Friday afternoon, there were no signs of any oil. The following statement was released by Poseidon Water and the San Diego County Water Authority Thursday: “The Carlsbad Desalination Plant continues to operate normally with no oil detected at the site, and there are no plans to shut it down. If operational changes are required, the Water Authority could shift water deliveries to ensure continued water service to its member agencies countywide. Per State of California requirements in the facility’s drinking water permit, the desalination plant will shut down if the hydrocarbon concentration of source seawater reaches 300 parts per billion. Meanwhile, according to Oceanside officials, Shoreline Cleaning Assessment Teams (SCAT) continue to examine Oceanside beaches. An environmental cleanup team will take care of any traces of tar balls. Officials said they have preemptively deployed cabling in case they need to boom off the Oceanside Harbor inlet. At this time, the city hasn't determined if the tar balls are from the spill or from natural means, which sometimes occurs. The sheen they are observing from fly-overs is still at least five miles offshore and to the north of San Onofre.

OC oil spill: More results of tar balls found on local beaches possibly due to oil leak— San Diego County officials confirmed tar balls were found at Mission Beach Friday, possibly due to the massive oil spill in Orange County.Unified Command operations announced more than 900 people were assigned Friday to shoreline cleanup assessment teams, looking for tar balls and signs of oil from the leak. The discovery comes a day after tar balls were found Thursday at North County beaches.Crews have been collecting tar balls along the shoreline of Carlsbad while keeping a keen eye out for any possible oil sheen that might demand a more robust cleanup effort. Across the river mouth opening at the Agua Hedionda Lagoon, an oil boom skimmer has been deployed to attempt to keep surface oil from entering the delicate lagoon ecosystem. According to the South California Response Team, to date, 5,544 total gallons of crude oil and 13 barrels of tar balls were recovered.County officials say lifeguards will continue to watch out for oil deposits while teams will take water, soil and air samples for testing in the coming days. The county is also advising residents to exercise caution if encountering tar balls on the beach. “Based on increased reports of tar balls washing ashore on North County beaches, the County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agency is advising residents to exercise caution at local beaches and to avoid contact if tar balls are seen,” the county said on their website.If contact occurs, the body area should be thoroughly cleaned with soap and water or other skin-safe cleaners.“Do not use degreasers, cleaning solutions or solvents as they may damage the skin further,” the county advised. “If a significant rash or other reaction occurs, consult your primary care provider.”

Coast Guard: California oil leak likely caused by damage that happened months ago -- The underwater pipeline that caused a major oil spill off the coast of Southern California was likely damaged by a ship’s anchor months before it leaked, the Coast Guard said. Coast Guard Capt. Jason Neubauer, chief of the office of investigation and analysis, said during a news conference on Friday that his office received video evidence indicating the pipeline likely had been damaged “several months to a year ago.” “This event could be multiple incidents and strikes of the pipeline after that initial event that we’re pretty confident occurred several months to a year ago,” Neubauer said. Video released Thursday shows that the damaged portion of the pipeline has a 13-inch crack and marine growth, Neubauer said. The pipeline was intact in October 2020, Neubauer said, but has since been dragged 105 feet. The pipeline had previously been encased in concrete, which was intact a year ago. “There was probably an initiating incident of some kind of anchor drag over that section, but since that time, there’s been significant growth,” Neubauer said. “That has refocused the ... time frame of our investigation to at least several months to a year ago.” Neubauer said that an investigation is underway regarding vessel movement over the pipeline over the past year. He also said authorities are examining a “heavy weather event” that occurred Jan. 24 and Jan. 25 and could have made it harder for vessels to anchor.Beta Offshore, which operates the pipeline, said last Saturday that it first observed and notified the Coast Guard of an "oil sheen" four miles off the coast of Southern California. Officials originally estimated that the amount of oil spill could have been up to 144,000 gallons. However, authorities said Thursday that it may have been under 30,000 gallons, CBS Los Angeles reported. The Associated Press reported Thursday that authorities were looking into a massive cargo ship that was anchored near the pipeline before it ruptured.

California pipeline likely damaged up to a year before spill (AP) — An underwater oil pipeline off the Southern California coast was likely damaged by a ship’s anchor several months to a year before it ruptured and sent oil spewing into the ocean and then onto some of the area’s best-known beaches, investigators said Friday. Coast Guard Capt. Jason Neubauer, chief of the office of investigations and analysis, said after the first strike it’s possible other ships’ anchors subsequently struck the steel pipe that brings oil to shore from three platforms out at sea. Investigators previously said a large section of the pipe was bowed after being struck and dragged along the seabed. It remains unknown when the slender, 13-inch (33-centimeter) crack began leaking oil, and investigators will pour over a year of data on ship movements near the area of the break. No ships have been identified as suspects at this point. The accident scene is outside the Long Beach-Los Angeles port complex that is the largest in the country and handles some 4,000 vessels a year. Many of them are from overseas and that could complicate the process of boarding ships of interest in the investigation to get information. The disclosure that the damage to the pipe could have occurred so long ago dramatically reshaped what was known about the leak that sent tens of thousands of gallons of crude into the Pacific. A search that initially appeared to focus on the hunt for one vessel now could send investigators to ports around the country to inspect many ships. It now appears many factors played a role in the pipe’s failure – possible repeated anchor strikes, stresses from being dragged along the seafloor and the corrosive forces of seawater. Neubauer said investigators have narrowed their search to large cargo vessels that would be powerful enough to move a 4,000-foot (1,219-meter) section of pipeline 105 feet (32 meters) across the ocean floor. Investigators believe the initial anchor strike occurred sometime after a survey of the pipeline a year ago that showed the line was in its original location. The extended timeline was partly based on visible marine growth on the damaged length of the pipe that was revealed in an underwater survey. The Coast Guard previously released vide of the rupture spot and a wider view of the bowed pipe. A crack suggests the pipe, which was installed in 1980, perhaps withstood an initial impact, but had been weakened over time by corrosion and became more prone to fail, Neubauer said a debris field is visible on the seafloor near the break. Investigators will now remove that section of the pipe for lab analysis. It wasn’t clear how long the investigation would take. Anchor strikes on pipelines are relatively rare, but have caused problems in the past. An Associated Press review of more than 10,000 reports submitted to federal regulators found at least 17 accidents on pipelines carrying crude oil or other hazardous liquids have been linked to anchor strikes or suspected anchor strikes since 1986. According to federal records, in some cases an anchor strike is never conclusively proven, such as 2012 leak from an ExxonMobil pipeline in Louisiana’s shallow Barataria Bay, where a direct strike by a barge or other boat also were considered possibilities. In others the evidence of an anchor strike was obvious. During 1992’s Hurricane Andrew, a 30,000-pound (13,607-kilogram) anchor was dragged by a drifting drilling rig over a Texaco pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico, causing a dent that broke open when the line was later re-started.

The only way to eliminate the risk of catastrophic oil spills is to stop drilling - Fossil fuel companies continue to profit from pumping oil while polluting our water and air. Our coastlines take a huge hit when oil is spilled, as we’re seeing in Southern California right now. Despite the long history of oil disasters, including recent spills in Santa Barbara, San Francisco Bay, and now Huntington Beach, there is still no federal or state plan for a just transition away from an extractive fossil fuel economy. We need federal action to shut down offshore oil drilling and phase out extraction altogether. When the Trump administration threatened to open federal waters off the U.S. coastline to new oil leases, people protested in droves. We knew then and we know now: When we drill, we spill. No amount of so-called safeguards from oil companies and regulators can fix this dirty and dysfunctional industry. We successfully fended off Trump’s new offshore drilling leases, yet our government still allows new ocean drilling through existing leases. Amplify Energy — owner of the offshore oil pipeline that just leaked more than 140,000 gallons of crude oil in Southern California’s coastal waters — has plans to “initiate new drilling” in the same general areas within the next three months. Oil companies get permits to drill and transport oil while promising to operate safely and then, inevitably, they fail. There is no way to eliminate the risk of catastrophic spills. Valves will leak, pipelines will corrode or be severed, well casings will blow — the list goes on. The only way to prevent oil disasters is to stop drilling. The public has no means to challenge oil companies with a history of safety and environmental violations that directly threaten our livelihoods and quality of life. Most offshore drilling infrastructure in California is at least four decades old, and there is no transparency into how the industry plans to fix their aged pipelines. We can only sit back and wait for disaster to strike. Then we watch in anguish as our fisheries and ecosystems, and our own health and economy, pay the price. This latest spill is just the most visible environmental impact of oil drilling. It is heartbreaking to see dolphins swimming through black goop, oiled birds collapsing on the shoreline, dead fish washing up and beaches emptied of surfers, swimmers and children building sandcastles. And we can’t even see the impact on the plankton, the tiny plants and animals that float in the ocean waters and are the basis of marine food webs that sustain fish, mammals, birds, and of course people. Agencies will try to calculate the cost of the damage, but they will not be able to account for all of it, nor for how long the devastation will last. Amplify’s spilled oil has already traveled about 50 miles, making it as far south as Oceanside in San Diego County. Impacts from the worst oil spill in American history, the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico, were still being discovered 10 years after the spill. The oil spread farther, sank deeper and was lethal to more habitats than anyone expected — the same is happening with this spill, too.Why are we prioritizing the profits of one industry over the health and safety of all? Oil from California’s offshore waters makes up only one-tenth of 1 percent of all the oil pumped in the U.S. every day. Is this really worth the damage we must suffer?

Could Fossil Fuel Companies Ever Be Tried for Crimes Against Humanity? -- Someone does something wrong, and is held accountable for it. It’s a pleasant notion, one with no bearing whatsoever on the world of the super-rich, whose various plunderings, deceptions, and general anti-humanity behaviors have gone and will continue to go unpunished. But does it have to be this way? Might we one day see an oil exec slumped on the stand, eyes silently begging the jury for mercy? Might we watch that exec whimper piteously as the cuffs are secured? I’m not talking accounting fraud, I’m talking Crimes Against Humanity. Could the fossil fuel companies be tried for them? For at least a decade now, advocates within the international law community have been talking about ecocide as a crime against humanity. Groups like the Center for International Environmental Law and the Stop Ecocide Foundation have been working on the legal strategy and building up the factual basis: e.g., what Exxon knew and when they knew it. These kinds of things are necessary for bringing a case.Recently, the Stop Ecocide Foundation empaneled a number of leading international law experts, who provided a technically credible and well-thought-out definition of ecocide that would include deliberate, reckless acts committed knowing that the acts are substantially likely to cause severe and widespread or long-term damage. The definition is part of a proposal to amend the Rome Statute, which is the treaty that sets out the crimes that can be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court. Two-thirds of the member countries will have to vote in favor of the amendment, although any one country can recommend it. Vanuatu has publicly supported adding ecocide as the fifth international crime as has France, so it’s very possible a country will formally recommend it, and the members will have a debate about it. (That said, it’s important to note that the US is not a party to the Rome Statute.) One of the major advantages of the crimes-against-humanity framework is that it would reinforce the moral line crossed by fossil fuel companies that have promoted their products while undermining climate science. Attaching the label of ecocide can build momentum for other advocacy against the fossil fuel companies—actions in domestic courts by the victims of hurricanes, wildfires and flooding increasingly shown to be exacerbated by fossil fuel-induced climate change, or by getting contributions to some kind of international fund to support the victims of climate change, as an alternative to being prosecuted. If you build up enough credibility for a potential prosecution, the companies may look for some political way out. As ever, companies want to avoid being declared responsible.

Gas Crisis Hits Food as Giant Dutch Greenhouses Go Dark - Skyrocketing power prices are forcing the vast network of Dutch glasshouses -- the continent’s biggest -- to go dark or scale back, threatening to cut supplies at Europe’s fruit and vegetable stalls and flower shops. Although small, the Netherlands is the world’s second-largest exporter of food by value, thanks in part to its high-yielding glasshouses that span some 10,000 hectares (25,000 acres)-- about the size of Paris. They grow vegetables like tomatoes, cucumbers and bell peppers and flowers including orchids, tulips and chrysanthemums -- making the country one of Europe’s key suppliers of fresh produce and a huge hub for the floral trade. In 2020, Dutch exports of greenhouse produce amounted to 9.2 billion euros ($10.7 billion). But heating these sprawling glass structures uses up to 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year, or about 8.2% of the country’s overall consumption of the fuel. Europe’s soaring energy prices are having a “massive impact” on the sector, said Cindy van Rijswick, a senior analyst at Rabobank. That’s driving some producers to cut back on lighting, end the growing season early or plan to start later next spring. “These are drastic measures that reduce production and yield and have major economic consequences for the companies,” according to industry association Glastuinbouw Nederland. “We cannot rule out whether consumers will also pay more for their vegetables, flowers and plants.” Any fruit and vegetable shortages could further stoke food inflation, with a United Nations index of world prices hovering near a decade high. Grain harvests were hit by bad weather, shipping costs are soaring and worker shortages abound from farms to restaurants. The energy crunch could exacerbate those problems -- rippling through not just greenhouses, but also costs for fertilizers spread to boost crop yields.

France pushing to strengthen EU’s energy independence as gas prices soar - France is pushing the EU to reduce its energy dependency on foreign countries as gas prices soar across the continent. The EU has been grappling with higher energy costs in recent weeks, prompting governments in Spain, Italy, Greece, and France to take drastic actions to soften the impact on consumers. The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, has risen almost 400% since the start of the year. Energy experts foresee further gas price spikes as the winter season approaches. Euro zone finance ministers on Monday discussed the issue together for the first time at a meeting in Luxembourg. "We don't want to be dependent on the supplies coming from foreign [countries]," French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told reporters on Monday. The EU receives most of its natural gas supplies from Russia. In 2020, Moscow accounted for 43.4% of the EU's natural gas stock, followed by Norway at 20%. Russia is likely to provide further natural gas to the bloc after Gazprom recently completed construction on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a politically charged project designed to deliver more gas to the EU via Germany. Russia's state-owned energy giant started filling the pipeline with gas for tests on Monday. Gazprom is awaiting approval from German regulators to open the taps. "It is crucial to diversify energy supply and reduce European dependency on gas-exporting countries as fast as possible," Le Maire said in a letter last week. When asked if the EU was too reliant on gas from Russia, Europe's Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said this issue would be raised in discussions "for sure." He also said the debate among euro zone finance ministers would include: "How can we address [and] strengthen our independence, address costs of procurement [and] different ways of storage." Some national EU governments, namely Spain, have asked for a European response to the spike in energy prices. The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, was due to put forward new ideas on how the bloc could tackle the issue together this week. This announcement has been postponed, however.

Britain deploys its army to deliver fuel as panic buying and shortages continue - — British soldiers have begun delivering fuel in the U.K., as panic buying of gasoline continues in some parts of the country. Around 200 military personnel are to be deployed as part of Operation Escalin, a strategy devised by the British government to help ease fuel supply constraints caused by a major shortage of truck drivers. Photographs Monday morning showed soldiers in combat fatigues at a BP refinery in Hemel Hempstead, England. Army tanker drivers have been on standby since last week. The government's Reserve Tanker Fleet — driven by civilians — was deployed Tuesday to deliver gasoline. Panic buying of gasoline in the U.K. in recent weeks has caused long lines outside fuel stations, many of which have been left completely dry. While the situation has begun to improve in most parts of the country, shortages remain acute in London and England's southeast. The U.K. has an estimated shortage of 100,000 truck drivers, which has disrupted the delivery of fuel, food and goods around the country. Brexit, regulatory changes and the Covid-19 pandemic are among the issues contributing to the issue. As well as utilizing the army, the government has taken steps such as suspending competition laws for the fuel industry and granting thousands of temporary visas to truck drivers, to attempt to ease the sector's logistical challenges. "The whole episode begs the question of why the U.K., once again, seems to be getting hit harder than other economies," he said. "In my opinion, the panic and hysteria in the U.K. partly reflects a growing lack of confidence by the public in the government's ability to manage the economy and fix problems when they arise."

Gas price surges to a record high in Europe on supply concerns — Natural gas contracts hit new highs in Europe on Tuesday, as soaring prices continue to put pressure on the region's energy sector ahead of the winter period. November contracts at the Dutch TTF hub — a European benchmark for natural gas — were trading at around 118 euros per megawatt hour (MWH) just after midday in London. The front-month contract was up almost 19% on the day, setting a new record high, and has risen almost 400% since the start of the year. In the U.K. — which has been hit particularly hard by the surging cost of wholesale natural gas — prices for November rose 14% to £2.79 per therm on Tuesday. Meanwhile, British wholesale gas for immediate delivery rose by 23% to £2.50 per therm. Soaring wholesale prices have partially been caused by a surge in demand, particularly from Asia, as economies emerge from Covid-19 induced lockdowns. A cold European winter and spring also meant supplies had already been heavily depleted by the summer. Meanwhile, falling domestic production, adverse U.S. weather conditions and essential maintenance works have created a tight gas market and made restocking gas supplies ahead of the coming winter difficult across the region. Stress tests for the energy sector? Several British energy suppliers have collapsed amid the gas price crisis. September alone saw nine companies cease trading, according to reports. In a normal year, between five and eight companies exit the U.K. market, according to U.K. Business Minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Speaking to CNBC's "Street Signs Europe" on Tuesday, Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy — which recently absorbed more than half a million customers from collapsed competitor Avro — said many companies had failed to weather the crisis because they were "buying short and selling long." "Octopus was able to hedge its supplies," he said. "Today we've got over 3 million [customers], so you really can hedge up to scale. I think those [failed] companies were hoping that if prices fell, they could scoop up customers with a bargain, if they rose then they'd be able to batten down the hatches and see through the crisis. This crisis is so great no one could weather it if they weren't hedged."

Asian LNG Price Soars to Record High - Asian liquefied natural gas prices surged to a record high as global competition for the super-chilled fuel intensified amid low inventories and coal shortages. The Japan-Korea Marker, North Asia’s benchmark for spot LNG shipments, surged to $34.47 per million British thermal units, the highest on records going back to 2009, according to price reporting agency S&P Global Platts. European gas prices, which Asian rates have closely followed this year, also broke records on Thursday. Prices for the heating and power-generation fuel are surging around the world as utilities rush to restock lower-than-average inventories ahead of winter in the northern hemisphere, while alternatives -- like coal -- are also in short supply. Export constraints from Norway to Malaysia, coupled with robust Asian demand, have left little of the fuel available. The price rally for the super-chilled fuel brought its cost close to $190 a barrel of oil equivalent. That’s more than twice the level international benchmark Brent crude is trading on Thursday. Unlike previous record-breaking price spikes, this one is happening while temperatures are still relatively mild, illustrating the extent of the supply crunch. Frigid winter weather could send Asian LNG prices surging threefold from current levels, according to Citigroup Inc. “Lower temperature forecasts than average in China and South Korea have led to greater end-user buying interest,” Roe said. China’s state-owned importers are boosting efforts to secure LNG for the winter, putting them in direct competition with gas-starved Europe for exports. The country’s power crunch has triggered electricity curbs in at least 20 regions and could get much worse if a La Nina climate pattern brings colder-than-normal temperatures over winter. “Competition with Europe will persist,” said Robert Ryan, chief commodity and energy strategist at BCA Research. “Asia successfully pulled cargoes over last winter by hiking prices to $32 levels and may well have to do that now to attract supply. There’s also the possibility that this still isn’t enough and governments in China and elsewhere could start ordering factories to shut down to conserve power.” Traders expect China to continue spot LNG purchases over the next few weeks, which will likely push prices even higher as the market continues to tighten.

EU Politicians Panic As Natgas Prices Explode 40% Overnight --Europe's power crunch is roiling energy markets Wednesday as Dutch and U.K. natural gas futures jumped 60% in just two days, hitting record highs along with soaring power prices. Front-month Dutch natgas futures rose an astonishing 40% today to a record 162.125 euros per megawatt-hour after a 20% move higher on Tuesday. U.K. natgas futures surged 39% today, hitting 40 dollars. For context, the EU NatGas prices are equivalent to $250 oil..."This is just ridiculous," Tom Marzec-Manser, an analyst at ICIS, told Bloomberg."Almost impossible to even justify or qualify how and why it's moving so fast and so high."E.U. politicians are in panic mode to protect consumers and businesses from rising natgas and power prices. The European Union's energy chief Kadri Simson said a revision on energy regulations could happen by the end of the year to prevent soaring energy costs from derailing the economic recovery. As we've already seen, soaring natgas prices have resulted infertilizer manufacturers limiting or halt operations from the U.K. to Germany, which has disrupted food supply chains. Ahead of winter, E.U.'s natgas stockpiles are at their lowest seasonal levels in more than a decade. The continent is super reliant on Russian natgas, which flows have declined in recent months. It's also unclear when new supplies through Nord Stream 2, the new controversial pipeline from Russia, may begin - at this point, it's too late for fresh supplies as the restocking period was a month ago. There are discussions E.U. politicians may certify the Russian pipeline early next year. Again, that would be during the winter season and too late to alleviate shortages and higher prices. Europe is in for one harsh winter. But don't worry. Governments are likely to subsidize energy costs for households and even businesses to thwart a winter of discontent. After all, politicians only have one job: Get re-elected. Meanwhile, the electricity crisis continues to roil Asian markets as Chinese buyers are paying top dollar for natgas as Beijing ordered energy firms to secure supplies at all costs.

European natural gas prices soar 60% in two days as EU sounds alarm - -European gas prices surged again, bringing their gains over just two days to 60%, as the impact of soaring energy costs rippled through equity and bond markets and the European Union sounded the alarm. Dutch and UK gas futures continue to hit fresh records along with rising power prices. Rocketing energy costs are stoking inflationary pressures and fueling concern that economic growth will slow, prompting a slump in European stocks. “It looks like a classic short squeeze to me,” said Ronald Smith, a senior analyst at BCS Global Markets, who expects the latest spike to be short-lived. “I expect we’re going to see some traders going bankrupt and liquidating their positions.” Global gas and coal markets have tightened just as the heating season starts in the northern hemisphere, with limited supply failing to catch up with recovering demand. Colder weather is forecast for Europe next week, with temperatures across the mainland set to drop below normal levels. Several European countries including France and Spain have called on the EU to take urgent action to cushion the blow of sky-high gas prices. The bloc’s energy chief, Kadri Simson, has pledged a revision to market rules by the end of the year to prevent surging costs from stifling the economic recovery. “This price shock cannot be underestimated,” Simson told members of the European Parliament during a debate on the crisis. “It is hurting our citizens and in particular the most vulnerable households, weakening competitiveness and adding to inflationary pressure.” With the gas crisis worsening by the day, some energy-intensive companies have shuttered operations because they’re becoming too expensive to run. With Europe’s stockpiles at their lowest seasonal level in more than a decade, deliveries from Russia limited and global competition for liquefied natural gas intense, the squeeze will only worsen as winter approaches. Front-month Dutch gas jumped as much as 40% to a record 162.125 euros a megawatt-hour after closing up 20% the day before. It traded at 131.10 euros as of 1:01 p.m. in Amsterdam. The UK equivalent rose as much as 39%, hitting an unprecedented 407.82 pence a therm, before easing back to 335.81 pence.

Nat gas goes parabolic, again. It’s giving us the chills.- Whoosh. There’s been a further surge in UK gas prices, as this Bloomberg chart shows: No-one is expecting much relief in the short term, with the cost to suppliers of buying for delivery in three months from now spiking too. Here’s the chart showing what traders expect to happen further into the winter months:While the surge might be more dramatic in the UK, it’s not confined to it. ViaAndreas Steno Larsen:Further afield, we’ve seen power shortages in China and India reportedly has just four days’-worth coal supplies left. It looks set to be a long, cold, lonely winter. Unless you’re long smog.

With Europe In Chaos, Putin Says Russia Ready To Help Stabilize Gas Market --With European gas prices exploding overnight, and soaring as much as 40% today alone...... with day-ahead electricity prices across continental Europe hitting record highs - Germany is above €300 per MWh. In Spain, it surged to €288 per MWh, that's ~550% above the 2010-2020 price average, and so on...... prices abruptly reversed course after a glimmer of hope emerged out of the biggest European supplier, Russia, moments ago when Vladimir Putin spoke at an energy meeting in Moscow saying Russia is ready to help stabilize energy markets, adding that contrary to insinuations from Brussels, Gazprom has never refused to increase supplies to customers and Gazprom supplies to Europe may reach record highs.Putin did not miss the opportunity to mock Europe's catastrophic handling of energy needs, saying that the gas crisis shows European authorities made mistakes. Of course, what he is referring to here is the inexplicable delay in the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which is so absolutely critical for Europe's energy needs.And while Putin said that Russia has increased supplies to Europe, adding that Gazprom is increasing gas transit via Ukraine’s gas transportation system, and most likely will exceed its contract liabilities, a quick look at the actual flows of Russian gas into Germany's Mallnow via the Yamal-Europe pipeline show s that there is much to be desired.

Russia offered to pump more gas to Europe. But analysts doubt that's ever going to happen— Winter isn't even upon us yet and Europe is already experiencing a gas market crisis with bumper demand and limited supply, prompting a squeeze on prices in the region. So when Russian President Vladimir Putin stepped in on Wednesday, offering to increase Russia's gas supplies to Europe, regional gas prices (up a staggering 500% so far this year) fell and markets breathed a sigh of relief. Market analysts quickly suspected that the offer to increase supplies to Europe was likely intended to put pressure on Germany to certify the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline (which will take Russian gas supplies to Germany via the Baltic Sea) for use, as Russia is waiting on Germany's energy regulator to authorize the $11 billion pipeline, a process that could take several months. Experts warned that Russia's offer demonstrated that Europe is increasingly vulnerable to Moscow's ability to turn on — and off, more importantly — gas supplies as and when it wants. While Russia's apparent largesse might have offered gas markets some respite, analysts have since noted that Russia might not even be able to deliver on promises to supply more. "Comments from Mr. Putin appear to have provided some comfort to the market. However, whether these additional gas supplies depend on a quick approval of Nord Stream 2 or not may not be the main issue," Adeline Van Houtte, Europe analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note Thursday. "Currently, the Russian domestic gas market remains tight, with its inventories running low, output already near its peak and winter looming in Russia as well, limiting gas export capacity," she said. "There is also little sign that Gazprom — the Russian gas export pipeline monopoly, which supplies 35% of European gas needs — is attempting to pump more gas to Europe's spot buyers via existing routes, and overall given its small room for manoeuver, it is unlikely that Gazprom could deliver more than around 190bcm (billion cubic meters) to Europe this year," she said, warning it meant "European prices are unlikely to cool substantially in 2021." Mike Fulwood, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, expressed doubts that Russia is able to supply more gas to Europe too, noting that production is already at record levels. "Russia's been faced with the same demand pressures" as elsewhere, he noted. "It was [a] very cold winter in Russia last winter, and Russian production is actually at record levels," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." "It's well up on last year of course when demand was down, but it's also up on 2019 levels, and they've been having to refill their own storage as well, which was depleted badly because of the cold weather." "So it's extremely doubtful whether they could supply more gas, whatever the route," he added.

U.S. was right — Europe has become a 'hostage' to Russia over energy, analysts warn - - After Russia rode to Europe's rescue and offered to increase gas supplies to the region amid soaring prices, experts said one thing had become abundantly clear: Europe is now largely at Russia's mercy when it comes to energy, just as the U.S. had warned. Natural gas contracts hit new highs in Europe this week — and regional benchmark prices are up almost 500% so far this year — with heightened demand and a squeeze in supply putting pressure on the energy sector as the weather turns colder. Prices seesawed on Wednesday, hitting new highs before retreating after Russian President Vladimir Putin stepped in, offering an increase in Russia's gas supplies to Europe. Market analysts said the move showed that Europe was increasingly vulnerable to Russia, which is waiting for Germany to certify the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project which will bring more Russian gas to Europe via the Baltic Sea. The $11 billion pipeline has now been completed much to the annoyance of the U.S. which has long-opposed the project, warning for years during its construction that it compromises Europe's energy security and that Russia could seek to use energy supplies as leverage over the region. The Obama and Trump administrations galvanized bipartisan opinion against the pipeline and President Joe Biden too announced sanctions against companies involved in the project, but these were waived in May in what was seen as an attempt by the U.S. to rebuild ties with Germany. 'Energy blackmail' "[It's] crystal clear that Russia has Europe (the EU and U.K.) in an energy headlock, and Europe (and the U.K.) are too weak to call it out and do anything about it," he said, calling it a form of "energy blackmail." "Europe is cowering as it fears [that] as it heads into winter Russia will further turn the screws (of energy pipelines off) and allow it to freeze until it gets its way and NS2 is certified." Putin used a televised government meeting on Wednesday to offer an increase in supplies to Europe. He also chided the region for canceling many of its long-term gas contracts in exchange for spot deals, saying the Kremlin was ready to negotiate new long-term contracts for gas sales. Many experts believe that Russia has withheld gas supplies to Europe on purpose, in a bid to speed up Germany's certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Russia has refuted this, however, with Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov denying on Wednesday that Russia has had any role in Europe's energy crisis. Nonetheless, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted on Wednesday that the expected German certification of the controversial pipeline could help cool prices.

Oil Prices Jump As OPEC+ Holds Firm On 400,000 Bpd Production Hike - Oil prices jumped early on Monday after reports started to emerge that the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ alliance recommended to the ministers to stick to the current plan and ease the cuts by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November. As of 9:21 a.m. EDT, just after a very short JMMC meeting ended and ahead of the full ministerial OPEC+ meeting, Brent Crude returned to $80 per barrel it had briefly hit last Tuesday. Brent was trading at $80.80, up by 1.85%. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, reached its highest level since the 2014 price crashed and traded at a more-than-seven-year high of $77.05, up by 1.75%. The favored option for the OPEC+ group is to stick to the plan and increase the collective output by 400,000 bpd in November, the JMMC meeting decided, as per sources who spoke to media. That’s the basic minimum the market was expecting. OPEC+ decided in the middle of July that it would start returning 400,000 bpd to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts. The group agreed to extend the existing deal from April 2020 through the end of December 2022. Recent price strength and expected higher oil demand in the winter due to gas-to-oil switching with record-high natural gas prices in Asia and Europe had some observers and oil-consuming nations, including the U.S., to call on OPEC+ for a higher increase in production. The JMMC, which recommends preferred action to the ministers, favors the plan as-is: easing the cuts by 400,000 bpd next month. Earlier reports had indicated that an 800,000-bpd supply increase in November with no increase in December was also on the table. At the end of the JMMC meeting and just ahead of the ministerial meeting, sources said, as carried by Amena Bakr, Deputy Bureau Chief and Chief Opec Correspondent at Energy Intelligence: “Look past your noses, there’s an oversupply expected in 2022. Easing by the planned 400k is the favored option so far.”

OPEC+ sticks to plan for gradual output hike, oil price roars higher - OPEC+ agreed on Monday to stick to an existing pact to hike oil output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, despite consumer calls for more crude and surging prices that threaten an economic recovery from the pandemic. Brent crude advanced $1.98, or 2.5%, to settle at $81.26 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $1.74, or 2.29%, to end the day at $77.62 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allies, known as OPEC+, have been under pressure from big consumers, such as the United States and India, to add extra supplies after oil prices climbed 50% this year. OPEC+ ministers "reconfirmed the production adjustment plan" previously agreed for adding 400,000 bpd in November, the group said in a statement issued after their online ministerial talks. Brent crude roared above $81 a barrel on the news that the group would not adjust its plan, sending prices back to three-year highs and adding to inflationary pressures in the global economy. "There are calls for more of a production increase by OPEC+," an OPEC+ source had told Reuters ahead of Monday's ministerial talks. "We are scared of the fourth wave of corona, no one wants to make any big moves." The group had agreed in July to boost output by 400,000 bpd a month until at least April 2022 to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts, already much reduced from curbs that were in place during the worst of the pandemic. A senior aide to U.S. President Joe Biden met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia on a range of issues last week, saying oil was "of concern". India, another big oil consumer, has pushed for more supply.

WTI settled at its highest level since 2014 -Oil futures rallied on Monday, with WTI settling at its highest level since 2014, after OPEC and its allies maintained its current agreement to gradually raise crude oil production each month. The agreement to “gradually” raise production comes at a time when demand appears set to make a full recovery by 2022. On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, reaffirmed its July decision and will raise overall oil production monthly by 400,000 barrels a day in November. At the July meeting, OPEC+ said it would raise its overall production by 400,000 barrels a day starting in August until it fully phased out the production cuts it put in place last year. November West Texas Intermediate crude climbed by $1.74, or 2.3%, to settle at $77.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with front-month prices ending at their highest since Nov. 11, 2014, according to Dow Jones Market Data. December Brent added $1.98 or 2.5%, to settle at $81.26 a barrel – the highest finish since Oct. 16, 2018. November RBOB climbed by 2.6% to $2.309 a gallon, the highest front-month finish since Aug. 30. November heating oil tacked on 2.3% to $2.437 a gallon, marking the highest settlement since Oct. 2018. Over the past couple of weeks, demand for natural gas has shifted to demand for crude oil, as crude is relatively more competitive. This combined with a boost in demand and OPEC+’s decision to rollover the output cuts has boosted WTI to its highest level in seven years. There is concern that the decision by the cartel and its allies to “slowly” bring back production will not be enough to keep up with the increase in demand. Should this occur, there is the possibility that OPEC+ will decide to increase output to meet the global shortage, as they are set to meet once a month. OPEC+ ministers will meet again on November 4th. Vitol’s CEO Russell Hardy said the company expects the price of oil to have fallen to about $75/barrel by this time next year. He told the Energy Intelligence Forum he expects oil demand levels to return to pre-pandemic levels by the summer of 2022. He said "we are 2.5-3 million bpd behind 2019 oil demand levels, the vast bulk of that is jet fuel". According to Bloomberg, European gasoline arrivals in the U.S. increased by 42% to an eight month week high in the week ending September 30th. Total gasoline arrivals in the U.S. increased to 443,000 bpd, the highest since the week ending August 5th. It is up from 313,000 bpd in the previous week. Eleven tankers discharged a total of 2.97 million barrels on the East Coast and one arrived with 128,000 barrels on the Gulf Coast. The U.S. received 684,000 barrels of diesel from Europe during the week, up from 643,000 barrels in the previous week. The head of energy research at Goldman Sachs Group, Damien Courvalin, said he sees an extra 650,000 bpd of crude demand later this year as utilities dealing with high natural gas prices switch to oil.

Oil analysts predict a prolonged rally as OPEC resists calls to ramp up supply — Oil prices climbed to multi-year highs shortly after a group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers opted against a big supply boost. Now energy analysts believe crude prices could be poised to rally toward $100 a barrel. OPEC and non-OPEC partners, a group collectively referred to as OPEC+, said Monday that it would stick to its existing pact for a gradual increase in oil supply. OPEC+ said it had "reconfirmed the production adjustment plan" in a statement published online shortly after relatively swift ministerial talks. This referred to its previously agreed decision to add 400,000 barrels per day to the market for the month of November. The group's decision on production policy had been widely expected, although some had hoped pressure from the U.S. and India to tame soaring oil prices might have been enough to persuade the group to offer more supply. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $81.74 a barrel on Tuesday morning, up more than 0.5% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $77.92, roughly 0.4% higher. Brent futures gained 2.5% to close at $81.26 on Monday, notching its highest settle for three years. WTI rose 2.3% to end the previous session at $77.62, reaching its highest settle in almost seven years. Both oil contracts are up around 60% since the start of the year. "The market is full of confidence," Tamas Varga, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note on Tuesday. "The question is whether this optimism is justified or not." Oil rigs work on platforms in Gaoyu Lake in Gaoyou in east China's Jiangsu province Friday, Sept. 17, 2021. Barcroft Media | Getty Images OPEC+ agreed in July to raise output by 400,000 barrels a month until at least April 2022 in order to phase out 5.8 million barrels per day of existing output cuts. The recovery in global oil demand from the coronavirus pandemic has been quicker than many expected, while global supply has been disrupted by hurricane outages and low investment. While Brent trading above $80 "might feel toppy," Varga said prices are "only seen uncomfortably high until the first cold spell arrives in the Northern Hemisphere, creating additional demand and triggering a fresh bout of buying." In the short term, Varga said the current backdrop suggests "there is still room on the upside."

OPEC+ Raises November Oil Production Quota To 39.7 Million Bpd -- The required crude oil production from OPEC and its non-OPEC allies led by Russia is39.694 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, OPEC said after the OPEC+ group decided to stick to the plan to ease the collective cuts by 400,000 bpd next month.During a short and uneventful meeting on Monday, the ministers of the OPEC+ coalition decided to proceed with increasing the group’s overall production by 400,000 bpd—the minimum the market was expecting.As per the decision, the ten OPEC members bound by the pact should produce no more than 24.047 million bpd in November, while the non-OPEC producers will see their collective quota at 15.647 million bpd.The two leaders of the OPEC+ group, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will each have a ceiling of production of 9.913 million bpd. Saudi Arabia is sticking to the deal, while Russia’s case is more curious.Official Russian data doesn’t discriminate between crude oil and condensate production, but condensates are excluded from Russia’s OPEC+ quota.Bloomberg estimates put Russian crude and condensate production in September at 10.7 million bpd. If condensate production was around 880,000 bpd, this would put Russian crude oil output at 9.83 million bpd, which would be 130,000 bpd above quota, as per Bloomberg calculations.Analysts say that Russia may have reached its capacity to produce oil, while several OPEC members of the pact such as Angola, and at times, Nigeria, have struggled to pump to quotas over the past few months. This is one of the key reasons for the over-100-percent compliance with the total cuts.The OPEC+ group of producers raised their compliance with the production cuts to 116 percent in August, up from 109 percent compliance in July, sources from the alliance told Reuters in September. Despite the higher production, OPEC was actually pumping at some 10 percent below its overall quota for the 10 members bound by the OPEC+ pact in August, due to outages and technical difficulties in countries such as Nigeria and Angola, Bloomberg noted last month.

Oil prices could hit an 'off the charts spike,' says strategist -Oil prices could experience an "off the charts spike" as winter approaches and OPEC and its allies stick to their earlier pact on oil output, a strategist told CNBC.OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with their allies including Russia — have been under pressure from top consumers, such as the United States and India, to add extra supplies after oil prices surged 50% this year.However, the oil cartel agreed on Monday to stick to an existing pact to hike oil output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, shrugging off calls to pump more oil. John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, said the decision by OPEC+ was a "very prudent course of action" until one considers the ongoing energy crises and possible supply disruptions."What I think [is] more concerning to everyone out there … what happens during the winter? Are we going to have another Arctic freeze?" Driscoll told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday. He pointed to the shortage of fuel in the U.K. — with long queues of cars waiting to buy gas, as well as "fist fights." In the U.K., people have been panic buying fuel, causing shortages, as well as straining the fuel supply chains. "When you get into winter, what you really have to worry about is this non-discretionary demand," Driscoll said. Non-discretionary demand refers to essential spending for daily goods and services.Driscoll said what's especially worrying is a thin inventory, or if there's "any kind of supply chain glitch."

Oil Continues Rise With Energy Switching Expectations - Oil extended its rally from a seven-year high a day after OPEC+’s decision to keep its supply agreement in place as energy prices spike stoking concerns that more petroleum products will be used in power generation. U.S. crude futures advanced 1.7% Tuesday, heading closer to the key, psychological $80-a-barrel level. At an OPEC+ meeting on Monday, Saudi Arabia and its partners opted for only a modest output increase of 400,000 barrels a day for November. U.S natural gas futures jumped to a 12-year high as global as global shortages of that fuel fanned fears of a shortage in the U.S ahead of winter in the northern hemisphere. “There is no room for error in the system,” “If we get a cold winter these prices could go up dramatically.” Both the U.S. and global crude benchmarks have surged this month with rising energy prices stoking fear of inflation forcing consumers to pay more for everything from gasoline to heating, food and plastics. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast that power generation could add an extra 650,000 barrels a day to oil demand this winter due to high gas prices. Underlying oil market gauges are also showing signs of strength. West Texas Intermediate crude’s so-called Dec.-Red-Dec. spread, a favored trade of the world’s hedge funds, topped $7.50 a barrel this week, the strongest on a rolling basis since 2019. West Texas Intermediate advanced $1.31 to settle at $78.93 a barrel in New York. Brent climbed $1.30 to settle at $82.56 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Meanwhile, in the U.S., analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate a crude stockpile rise of 700,000 barrels last week. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will release inventory data later Tuesday, while the U.S. government will release its weekly tally on Wednesday.

Oil Futures Again Rally on OPEC+ Resolve; WTI at 7-Year High -- Oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied for the second consecutive session Tuesday following Monday's decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners to maintain a policy of measured monthly production increases, lifting the U.S. crude benchmark to a seven-year high and the international crude benchmark to a three-year high settlement amid signs of accelerated demand growth this winter from gas-to-oil power generation in the European Union and China. Oil futures were also given a boost from a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. service activity in September -- the biggest component of the country's economic growth -- which rose by 1.2% from the previous month to 61.9, according to the data released Tuesday morning by the Institute of Supply Management. The reading came firmly above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. The better-than-expected performance in services also follows a solid reading for domestic manufacturing industries, with goods-producing industries recording a 1.2% advance last month to 61.1%. Demand appears to far outweigh supply for goods and services in an economy that is overwise slowing. The Federal Reserve of Atlanta GDPNow model estimates economic growth in the third quarter slowed to 1.3% from a 6.5% growth rate for the June-September period. Tuesday afternoon, oil traders also positioned ahead of the weekly release of inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute followed by the official report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Analysts estimate U.S. commercial crude oil inventories remained unchanged from the previous week, although estimates ranged from a decrease of 3.1 million barrels (bbl) to an increase of 2.5 million bbl. On the session, NYMEX November West Texas Intermediate futures jumped $1.31 bbl to settle a tad below $79 bbl at $78.93, and ICE December Brent contract rallied to $82.56 bbl, adding $1.30 bbl in afternoon trade. NYMEX November ULSD futures advanced 5.70 cents or 2.7% to $2.4936 gallon and front-month RBOB futures surged 4.94 cents to $2.3579 gallon. Tuesday's higher settlements were once again underpinned by the decision from OPEC+ coalition not to raise production above 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November despite a deepening energy crisis in Europe and Asia that could dent growth rates in those regions. Faced with record-high gas prices and fuel shortages, Eurozone industrial growth slowed sharply in September to the lowest reading since the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. In China, widespread power outages have already prompted government officials to roll out various electricity rationing measures to conserve fuel ahead of the peak winter demand season. Saudi Arabia's national oil company Aramco estimates that gas-to-oil switching in global power generation this winter will lead to 500,000 bpd in access demand for petroleum products this winter. Economists at Goldman Sachs see excess demand this winter for gas-to-oil switching at 645,000 bpd.

WTI Dips After API Reports 2nd Straight Week Of (Unexpected) Crude Inventory Builds - Oil prices extended their gains today (WTI at hits highest since 2014 and Brent at three year highs), after the OPEC+ group of producers agreed yesterday to stick to its planned output increase rather than raising it further."The market is realizing we are going to be undersupplied for the next couple of months and OPEC seems to be happy with that situation," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.Additionally, rocketing global natural gas prices, which may incentivize some power generators to switch from gas to oil, mean crude prices are likely to remain supported even though there could be a short-term pullback, said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy."I think there will be some profit-taking ... but we are going into winter with very high natural gas prices," Cunningham said, adding that he expects Brent will find support around $80 and WTI in the mid-$70s.Saudi Aramco said on Monday that they see switching from Natural Gas to Crude Oil of 500,000 bpd. Who can blame them...All eyes on tonight's API data (and tomorrow's DOE data) to reassure traders that demand continues to outstrip supply... API

Crude +951k (-300k exp)
Cushing +1.999mm
Gasoline +3.682mm
Distillates +345k

After last week's surprise inventory builds across the crude complex, analysts expected a modest 300k barrel draw this week but again they were wrong as API reported a small crude build (and builds for Gasoline and Distillates)

WTI Holds Losses After Surprise Crude, Gasoline Inventory Builds Oil prices are tumbling this morning, pressured by the broad weakness in stocks, a surprise build in crude stocks reported by API, and some positive headlines from Putin over the EU gas situation which may remove some upward pressure on oil prices from rotation.Some downward pressure came from the API's figures showing signs of slowing fuel demand and all eyes are on the official data to see if that is confirmed. DOE

Crude +2.345mm (-300k exp)
Cushing +1.548mm
Gasoline +3.256mm
Distillates -396k

Official DOE data showed a big crude build last week, confirming API's data, for the second straight week of rising inventories - not what the market expected from 'recovery'. Gasoline stocks also jumped higher...Crude production is rebounding finally from Hurricane Ida's impact, though remains below pre-Ida levels...

WTI Slides From 7-year High on Bearish APIs, Saudi OSP Cut -- With the U.S. dollar rapidly strengthening and equity futures in retreat, crude and refined products futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange fell in early trade Wednesday after preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute showed across-the-board builds occurred in U.S. crude and petroleum inventories last week, while Saudi Arabia's decision to cut nearly all of its November crude prices for Asia, European and U.S.-bound cargoes have further weighed on the market. Saudi national oil company, Aramco, trimmed its official selling price for the flagship Arab Light crude bound for Asia to $1.30 per barrel (bbl), down 0.40 cents from October. Aramco also cut prices for crude bound to Northwest Europe and the United States after keeping them unchanged in October. Extra light to North West Europe was down $1 bbl to a negative $1.80 bbl against Oman/Dubai average. U.S. buyers received a modest discount of 0.10 cents per bbl from October's $2.40 bbl. The price moves might give global refiners an incentive to increase crude liftings in November as OPEC+ gradually raises its production targets, which might suggest the physical oil market is not as tight as some analysts have thought. On Monday, OPEC and Russia-led partners agreed to increase crude production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, sticking to their plans to keep easing their cuts in measured steps. Separately, API data released Tuesday afternoon show U.S. commercial crude oil supplies rose 951,000 bbl in the week-ended Oct. 1, missing calls for stocks to remain unchanged. Data show stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub increased 1.999 million bbl. Gasoline stockpiles posted a build of 3.682 million bbl in the week ended Oct. 1, missing estimates for a 200,000 bbl decrease. API data show distillate inventories added 345,000 bbl compared with an expected 1.1 million bbl draw. U.S. diesel demand, often seen as a proxy for economic activity, increased 2% in the week ended Oct. 1, according to DTN's Refined Fuels Demand data, while gaining 5.9% relative to the same week in 2019. On a seven-day moving average basis, U.S. diesel demand is now 6.3% higher than the same seasonal period in 2019. In early trading, NYMEX November West Texas Intermediate futures slid from a $78.53 bbl seven-year high settlement to trade near $77.80 bbl, and ICE December Brent contract declined more than $1 to $81.50 bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures fell more than 2 cents to $2.4710 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures declined about 2.5 cents to $2.3336 gallon.

Oil prices dive on increasing U.S. crude inventories- Oil declined by the most in two weeks in the wake of growing U.S. inventories and after Russia signaled it is ready to help ease a global energy crisis.Futures in New York slid 1.9% on Wednesday and extended declines late in the session after the Financial Times reported that the U.S. is raising the prospect of releasing emergency oil reserves. Prices were weaker with U.S. government data showing growing crude stockpiles and amid Russian President Vladimir Putin’s indications that the country will ramp up gas exports to stabilize energy markets.Oil closed at the highest since 2014 on Tuesday as surging natural gas prices spur greater demand for crude and oil products ahead of winter, while OPEC+ continues to only drip-feed additional supply into the market. In the days leading up to the group’s Monday meeting, the Biden administration had made a push for producers to boost crude output amid intensifying fears about tightening global energy supplies.U.S. energy secretary Jennifer Granholm raised the prospect of releasing crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve and said that “all tools are on the table,” the Financial Times reported, citing comments made at an energy summit on Wednesday. Granholm did not rule out a crude oil export ban, the FT said.West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell $1.50 to settle at $77.43 a barrel in New York.Brent for December settlement dropped $1.48 to end the session at $81.08 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.Exports from Russia’s Gazprom PJSC to Europe in the first nine months of the year were close to all-time highs, according to the company. If that pace is sustained for the rest of 2021, it would be a record year, Putin said at an energy meeting on Wednesday. Lower-than-anticipated supplies from Russia, the region’s largest supplier, have been a major cause of the crisis, according to some European officials.

Oil Extends Losses As White House Considers Releasing Emergency Reserves, Ban Exports --WTI Crude prices have tumbled from almost $79.50 overnight to barely above $77 as inventories were seen rising for the second week, Russian President Vladimir Puttin offered to placate Europe's natural gas pain (removing a pillar of support for oil from gas-to-crude rotation), and now The FT reports that US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm has raised the prospect of releasing crude oil from the government’s strategic petroleum reserve, declaring that “all tools are on the table” as the Biden administration confronts a politically perilous surge in the price of gasoline.“It’s a tool that’s under consideration,” Granholm said of a release of crude supplies from the national strategic petroleum reserve, which analysts say could calm oil markets and bring prices down.“SPR [releases] came on the table a nanosecond after Jake Sullivan was rebuffed in Riyadh and the administration realised shale producers wouldn’t be able to increase production quickly enough,” said Bob McNally, head of Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to the George W Bush White House.Granholm also did not rule out a ban on crude oil exports.“That’s a tool that we have not used, but it is a tool as well,” she told the FT Energy Transition Strategies Summit on Wednesday.WTI extended its losses on this latest news...

Oil Throttles Back As Supply Concerns Ease | Rigzone - Oil declined by the most in two weeks in the wake of growing U.S. inventories and after Russia signaled it is ready to help ease a global energy crisis. Futures in New York slid 1.9% on Wednesday and extended declines late in the session after the Financial Times reported that the U.S. is raising the prospect of releasing emergency oil reserves. Prices were weaker with U.S. government data showing growing crude stockpiles and amid Russian President Vladimir Putin’s indications that the country will ramp up gas exports to stabilize energy markets. “The consideration of tapping reserves in the U.S. is likely to signal that we are not going to see oil prices get out of hand,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. Oil closed at the highest since 2014 on Tuesday as surging natural gas prices spur greater demand for crude and oil products ahead of winter, while OPEC+ continues to only drip-feed additional supply into the market. In the days leading up to the group’s Monday meeting, the Biden administration had made a push for producers to boost crude output amid intensifying fears about tightening global energy supplies. U.S. energy secretary Jennifer Granholm raised the prospect of releasing crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve and said that “all tools are on the table,” the Financial Times reported, citing comments made at an energy summit on Wednesday. Granholm did not rule out a crude oil export ban, the FT said. Prices: West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell $1.50 to settle at $77.43 a barrel in New York. Brent for December settlement dropped $1.48 to end the session at $81.08 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Exports from Russia’s Gazprom PJSC to Europe in the first nine months of the year were close to all-time highs, according to the company. If that pace is sustained for the rest of 2021, it would be a record year, Putin said at an energy meeting on Wednesday. Lower-than-anticipated supplies from Russia, the region’s largest supplier, have been a major cause of the crisis, according to some European officials.

Oil Drops The Most In Two Weeks As Concerns Over Energy Crunch Ease - Worry over the impending global energy crunch, which had replaced the long-standing worry over Covid as the primary influence of crude trading of late, seemed to ease somewhat on Wednesday and to the detriment of oil prices, which declined by the most in two weeks. West Texas Intermediate fell $1.50 to settle at $77.43 per barrel, while Brent dropped $1.48 to end the session at $81.08 per barrel. The declines occurred after media reported that the U.S. was raising the prospect of releasing emergency oil reserves as a signal that country will not let prices get out of hand, and also after The American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. oil inventories actually rose by 951,000 barrels in the week to October 1. According to the API, gasoline inventories also rose by 3.682 million barrels in the week while stockpiles of distillate fuel, including diesel fuel and heating oil, climbed 345,000 barrels. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated on Wednesday that his country will ramp up gas exports to stabilize energy markets (some European officials cite lower output from the former Soviet Union as a major cause of the energy crunch in that part of the world). But concern over the crunch is hardly over, and as in the previous session many analysts were still mulling over the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) decision on Monday to maintain its planned output increase rather than boosting it. ANZ said in a note, “The [OPEC+] increase was well below what the market was expecting, considering the energy crunch across the globe; not surprisingly, there is speculation that OPEC will be forced to move before the next scheduled meeting if demand continues to surge.” For the record, OPEC staying on course rather than turning on the taps was said to be the result of the cartel's fear that the fourth wave of Covid could impact demand recovery (even though global numbers show the virus to be in retreat). Meanwhile, John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, became the latest analyst to predict that oil could soon reach $100 per barrel: on Wednesday he told media that OPEC's move was "a very prudent course of action" but then added, “What I think [is] more concerning to everyone out there … what happens during the winter? Are we going to have another Arctic freeze? "I think, given all the uncertainty over weather and climate change, we could be in for a wild ride here.

Crude Oil Eases As US Mulls Strategic Reserve Sales - Oil prices extended losses from the previous session on Thursday, as the United States said it was considering selling oil from its strategic reserves and as Russia said it was ready to stabilise the natural gas market. Brent crude prices were down 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $80.92 a barrel by 1306 GMT, after touching a session low of $79.08. WTI crude futures fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $77.13 a barrel, having hit a session low of $74.96. Both contracts fell about 2% on Wednesday. "The crude market might be less tight should the United States tap the strategic crude reserves and if Russia manages to send more natural gas to Europe, this might result in less substitution from natural gas to crude," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Wednesday that the administration is considering tapping the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to cool a surge in gasoline prices, the Financial Times reported. Goldman Sachs said a likely SPR release, which could be up to 60 million barrels, only posed a $3 downside risk to its $90/bbl year-end Brent price forecast. A larger-than-expected fall in US crude inventories last week also weighed on prices. Stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels, the US Energy Information Administration said, against expectations for a modest dip of 418,000 barrels. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia was boosting gas supplies to Europe, including via Ukraine, in response to the energy crunch and stands ready to stabilise the market amid surging prices. Such a move could help cool off record high gas prices. Analysts say as winter approaches those gas prices could have an impact on the already tight crude market as some users switch to oil. Earlier this week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to stick to its plan to raise output by 400,000 bpd in November, sending crude prices to multi-year highs. OPEC+'s decision was partly driven by concern that demand and prices could weaken, sources close to the group told Reuters.

Oil Gains After US DOE Walks Back Plans for SPR Release -- Reversing earlier losses, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Thursday's session higher, lifting the U.S. crude benchmark above $78 barrel (bbl) after the U.S. Department of Energy said it was not planning to release crude from its emergency reserves or ban exports of crude oil to rein in surging fuel prices. Thursday's statement contradicted comments made by U.S. Secretary Jennifer Granholm on Wednesday who said the federal government has several tools to cool off rallying energy prices, including a potential release of oil from strategic petroleum reserves and an export ban. Market observers were quick to point out that a ban on U.S. crude exports would only stymie production growth, further exacerbating concerns over supply shortages. Meanwhile, plans to release emergency supplies from SPR -- the world's largest emergency stockpiles of crude -- is simply not considered "at his time," according to reports. The news came shortly after Goldman Sachs estimated that if the DOE released oil from the SPR in response to higher prices, it would likely be limited to just 60 million bbl -- posing a $3 downside risk to its $90 bbl Brent forecast. The SPR contained 617.8 million bbl of oil last week -- roughly equal to about a month of U.S. petroleum products demand. Immediately following the news, oil prices moved on the offensive, lifting both benchmark crudes towards the multiyear highs reached earlier this week. At settlement, NYMEX November West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $0.87 to $78.30 bbl after trading as much as 2% lower earlier during the session, and ICE December Brent contract added $0.87 to finish a tad below $82 bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures gained 1.76 cents to $2.4596 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures moved up 2.62 cents for a $2.3344 gallon settlement. The oil complex came under pressure after Russia's President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday suggested Moscow would increase gas flow into the European Union to mitigate the energy crisis there. European gas prices hit new record highs this week amid depleted inventories and lower-than-expected output from renewable energy. In Europe, natural gas prices are now trading at the equivalent of $230 bbl in oil terms -- up more than 130% since the beginning of September and more than eight times higher than the same time last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Service. In broader markets, stocks on Wall Street rallied and the dollar index softened against a basket of foreign currencies after U.S. unemployment claims fell for the first time in over a month last week, easing some concerns over slowing improvement in the labor market. Department of Labor reported 326,000 Americans applied for first-time unemployment benefits last week, down 38,000 from the previous week's revised levels, while the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits for consecutive weeks fell by 97,000 to 2.714 million. The data came at a time when most pandemic-related programs that extended unemployment benefits have ended, and amid hopes that declining COVID cases would spark a round of aggressive hiring during the fall.

WTI Cracks Above $80 as Markets Assess Supply Shortfall - Bolstered by a retreat in the U.S. dollar index triggered by a weaker-than-expected September employment report, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange accelerated gains in afternoon trade Friday, lifting the U.S. crude benchmark above $80 per barrel (bbl). The gains came as market participants assess a deepening supply shortfall for the global oil market amid depleted inventories in the European Union and Asia and accelerated gas-to-oil switching. The U.S. economy added a disappointing 194,000 new jobs in September, the lowest monthly job growth rate this year and well below estimates for 450,000 filled positions. The job growth in August was revised higher by 131,000 to 366,000, while July's employment figures topped 1.091 million. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows COVID-19 cases plateaued around mid-September and sustained a downtrend into early October. September's employment report is unlikely to change Federal Reserve plans to begin slowing the pace of $120 billion monthly asset purchases sometime later this year, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicating the central bank doesn't need a "knock-out or super-strong employment report" to start tapering. On Friday, major stock indices on Wall Street finished mixed, and the U.S. dollar declined 0.15% against a basket of foreign currencies to settle at 94.079, offering support for the November West Texas Intermediate contract that settled the session at a $79.35-per-bbl seven-year high on the spot continuous chart, paring an advance to an $80.11 intrasession high. International benchmark Brent crude advanced $0.44 to $82.39, while gaining more than $3 per bbl on the week. NYMEX November ULSD futures moved up 1.41 cents to $2.4737 gallon, and front-month RBOB futures rallied 3.18 cents or 1.5% to a $2.3662-per-gallon settlement. Oil futures were bolstered earlier in the week by a decision from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led producers not to raise output above previously agreed to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month despite fuel shortages across major economies and excess demand growth from gas-to-oil switching. Bank of America commodity research estimates that in a sustained switching scenario, the oil deficit this winter could easily exceed 2 million bpd, with top-line demand pushed up by 1 million to 2 million bpd mainly from Asian fuel burning capacity, particularly in Japan. In Europe, one of the principal concerns is the reliability of Russian gas supplies which President Vladimir Putin said would reach new record highs this winter. Analysts were quick to point out that Russian gas exports alone cannot solve Europe's energy crisis brought by lower-than-expected output from renewable energy sources and depleted inventories. Russia's gas production reached a decade-high in September, and domestic demand remains exceptionally robust heading into what forecasters say would be a "cold and snowy" winter. It remains unclear if Gazprom in fact has the capacity to rapidly boost gas exports.

WTI Breaks $80 As Oil Completes Seventh Weekly Gain - U.S. crude futures topped $80 a barrel for the first time since November 2014 as a global energy crisis boosts demand at a time when OPEC+ producers are keeping supplies tight. Futures in New York rose 1.3% on Friday, popping above the key, psychological level before pulling back. This week brought many indications that supplies will remain constrained: Saudi Aramco said a global natural gas shortage was already boosting oil demand for power generation and heating, and the U.S. Energy Department said that it had no plans “at this time” to tap the nation’s oil reserves. A weakening of the dollar on the back of worse-than-expected U.S. labor market data on Friday also boosted the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. The U.S. benchmark posted a seventh straight weekly gain, the longest stretch of advances since December. The economic recovery from the pandemic, along with supply disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, had already tightened the market before rising natural gas prices spurred additional demand for oil products like diesel and fuel oil. The decision by OPEC producers and their allies to only modestly increase output in November threatens to further constrain supplies. Meanwhile, various underlying oil market gauges are also showing signs of strength. West Texas Intermediate crude’s nearest contract traded at the biggest premium to second-month futures since August in a sign of rising demand and tight supplies. The so-called prompt spread has increased as more of the world attempts to substitute fuel oil for natural gas as quickly as possible. “They don’t need to buy it a month from now, they needed it yesterday,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. “It’s a panic buyer’s situation.” West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery climbed $1.05 to settle at $79.35 a barrel in New York. Brent for December settlement rose 44 cents to settle at $82.39 a barrel. Meanwhile, China is still facing power outages and Beijing has ordered its state-owned firms to secure energy supplies for winter at all costs. Chinese fuel oil futures jumped almost 10% on Friday as local markets resumed after a week-long national holiday.

U.S. oil futures post a nearly 5% weekly climb after touching highs above $80 a barrel - West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose $1.05, or 1.3%, to settle at $79.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a high of $80.11.Front-month contract prices for the U.S. benchmark finished at their highest since Oct. 31, 2014, according to Dow Jones Market Data. They settled up 4.6% for the week. December Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.39 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, up 4.9% for the week. It marked fifth straight weekly climb.Both WTI and Brent crude marked their seventh weekly gain in a row. November natural gas fell by 11 cents, or 2%, to settle at $5.565 per million British thermal units, leaving it down 1% for the week after bouts of volatility. Prices have still more than doubled year to date. More broadly, there are three reasons why U.S. oil prices traded around their highest levels since 2014.The first is oil production “restraint” by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has been “very conservative in adding to production for fear of another COVID-driven slowdown,” The second is the “recovering economy,” with the U.S. doing better than the rest of the world, with its oil consumption now back to the level it was before the pandemic.And third, “U.S. shale production growth has not been fast enough to return to 2019 levels as investment in new wells is slower,” said Williams. Exploration and production shareholders “want a more immediate return on their investment.” Data from Baker Hughes on Friday, however, showed a fifth straight weekly rise in the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil, up 5 at 433 this week, implying an upcoming increase in output.Earlier this week WTI crude prices pulled back after marking their highest settlement since October 2014 on Tuesday, after the Financial Times reported that U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm hinted at a possible tapping of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and said she hadn’t ruled out a ban on crude exports. Oil reversed back to the upside though on Thursday after a news report that the Energy Department had said it had no plans “at this time” to tap the SPR.“All the same, the idea of releasing strategic oil reserves will probably not be off the table entirely if oil prices continue to rise,” “In view of the current robust demand, which is likely to be additionally boosted by the switch from gas to oil, plus the restrictive OPEC+ production policy, the oil market will remain tight until year’s end,” Meanwhile, soaring natural-gas prices were seen adding to demand for crude, as gas-fired power plants, particularly in Asia, and other gas users switch to oil. Meanwhile, OPEC+ earlier this week stuck to its plans to increase crude production in monthly increments of 400,000 barrels a day, defying pressure to relax existing output curbs more quickly.As a result, Commerzbank raised its forecast for Brent crude prices in the current quarter to $85 a barrel from its previous forecast of $75, and lifted its first-quarter 2022 estimate to $75 a barrel from $70, Fritsch said. Round out action on Nymex Friday, November gasoline tacked on 1.4% to $2.366 a gallon, ending 5.2% higher for the week, while November heating oil added 0.6% to $2.474 a gallon, for a 3.8% weekly climb.

Iraq elections held as Washington’s puppet state nears collapse -Iraq’s elections for its 329-seat parliament that will choose the president and prime minister-typically after months of horse trading between the multiple political blocs—are set for October 10. Voter turnout is expected to be lower than the 44 percent of the 25 million eligible voters that cast their ballot in the 2018 elections as calls to boycott the elections grow. The elections take place amid increasing hostility towards the political setup established after the 2003 US-led invasion and overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime, simmering protests over endemic corruption, the terrible social and economic conditions and water and power outages. These conditions are exacerbated by low oil prices, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the fallout from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, Washington’s man in Baghdad who lacks both popular support and a political base, is seeking a second term as prime minister in Saturday’s elections that have been brought forward to appease protesters. The former intelligence officer became prime minister in May 2020. He did so after months-long mass protests, starting in October 2019 against inequality, poverty, corruption, the sectarian-ethnic political system and its rival external backers Washington and Tehran, that swept across Baghdad and Iraq’s southern region, brought down the government of Adil Abdul-Mahdi. The government sought to put down the protests, the largest since 2003 and known as the Tishreen (October) movement, with lethal force. It deployed the security forces and paramilitary groups to shoot down more than 600 protestors, further inflaming tensions until the pandemic and the accompanying restrictions emptied the streets. The repression has continued under al-Kadhimi, with militias affiliated to the various political parties assassinating 34 political activists, local leaders and outspoken journalists and critics, including Hisham al-Hashimi, a critic of Iraq’s militias. After three decades of US-led wars, the outbreak of a third world war, which would be fought with nuclear weapons, is an imminent and concrete danger. Key demands of the youthful and largely leaderless protest movement included early elections based on new legislation that would overturn Iraq’s sectarian political system and an investigation into the killings by the security forces. Neither these nor any social demands have been met.

Taiwan preparing for possible war with China --Taiwan is preparing for potential war with China following a series of increasingly aggressive military activity from Beijing, with Taipei’s foreign minister warning that should the nation attack, it would “suffer tremendously.” China on Monday sent 52 military aircraft into Taiwan’s airspace, the largest military provocation seen yet. In anticipation of further aggression, the self-ruled island is preparing to repel any strike and has asked Australia to increase intelligence sharing and security cooperation, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told the Australian Broadcast Corporation's "China Tonight." “The defense of Taiwan is in our own hands, and we are absolutely committed to that,” Wu told ABC's Stan Grant in an interview to be broadcast Monday. “I’m sure that if China is going to launch an attack against Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well.” China, which claims that Taiwan is part of its territory, in the past week has stepped up its saber rattling against the island to press it to back down and accept Chinese rule. Taipei, meanwhile, maintains it is a sovereign country separate from Beijing. China’s latest show of force follows a similar move on Friday, when it sent 38 military aircraft into Taiwan's air defense identification zone — at the time the largest number of aircraft it had sent in a single day — and 30 warplanes on Saturday. In response, the State Department said Sunday that the U.S. is “very concerned” about China's “provocative military activity near Taiwan” and urged Beijing “to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion” against the island.

Pakistan's Denim Exports to US Soared 62% in First Six Months of 2021 - Pakistan exported $38 million worth of denim clothing to the United States in July, 2021. This figure represents 140% growth over July, 2020. Mexico's denim exports grew 58% while those of Bangladesh grew 24% in this period, according to the US Office of Textiles and Apparel. Among the top Asian suppliers, Pakistan's exports to US jumped 62.16% year to date to $188.94 million. Bangladesh’s exports increased 42.82% to $362.38 million in this period while shipments from China were up 13.28% to $192.49 million. Pakistan’s textiles and clothing exports are expected to rise in the coming months as the US moves orders out of China and other neighboring Asian countries. The focus on more value addition and new textile policy of the country will support the organic growth in exports. The depreciation of PKR has also boosted textile exports.The monthly average of apparel exports from Pakistan was $565.60 million in H1 2021, which is expected to rise by 13.44% in H2 2021 to reach $641.60 million, according to a report in Fiber2Fashion. The US, the UK, Germany, Spain and France were the top importers of Pakistani apparel in H1 and accounted for approximately 68.27% of total apparel exports of the country, according to Fibre2Fashion’s market analysis tool TexPro.Pakistan's textile and garment exports jumped 22.94% to reach $15.4 billion in Fiscal Year 2020-21 (July 2020-June 2021), according to data from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. At the same time, the country's technology exports surged 47% to set a new record of $2.12 billion for the last fiscal year that ended in June 2021. Pharmaceutical exports also saw 25.3% growth to $241 million in the first 11months of FY 2021, indicating Pakistan's export diversification with higher value added goods and services.

Sri Lankan teachers take nationwide action, defying government bans On October 6, thousands of striking Sri Lankan teachers and principals demonstrated across the island, including in the war-ravaged North and East, as part of their campaign for higher wages. For the past three months about 250,000 government school teachers have been involved in an online teaching strike to demand decent salaries. The protests, which coincided with National Teachers Day, were held in 300 education divisions and involved over 200 teachers at each location in spite of minimal efforts by the teachers’ unions to organise the events. Teachers gathered at public places in the morning, chanting slogans against the government and holding placards such as, “Happy teachers’ day but teachers are unhappy, pay the salaries entitled to teachers, save free education” and “Stop the victimisation of teachers.” Two weeks ago, Public Security Minister Sarath Weerasekara threatened to “suppress the teachers’ strike in the way we destroyed terrorism.” Reacting to Wednesday’s protests, he declared that the government’s response to the strikers had been “too mild” and that “severe action” would be taken in the future. Dozens of teachers were arrested at earlier protests. The Rajapakse government deployed its henchmen in several areas on Wednesday to intimidate the protesting teachers. Health officials and police attempted to disrupt a demonstration at the Dehiattakandiya education division in the Eastern province, accusing teachers of violating COVID-19 social distancing regulations. The government, working in conjunction with the media, is also attempting to whip up public sentiment against the teachers, declaring that their wage demands are “unjustified during the pandemic” and falsely claiming that “the education of children has collapsed because of the strike.”

Right-wing “herd immunity” advocate becomes premier of Australia’s largest state - Dominic Perrottet, a right-wing figure closely associated with the corporate drive to lift all lockdowns and COVID-19 safety restrictions, was yesterday installed as the premier of New South Wales (NSW). Perrottet overwhelmingly won Tuesday’s party room ballot to determine the leader of the Liberal Party, and consequently, of its coalition government with the Nationals. The result means that amid the country’s worst coronavirus outbreak, the plans to lift the NSW lockdown and fully reopen the economy, beginning next Monday, will be overseen by a representative of the Liberals’ hard right faction who has opposed any imposts on private profit, including public health measures, throughout the pandemic. It has often been said that the real content of a political crisis becomes apparent by what emerges out of it. Such is the case with Perrottet’s elevation and accompanying wholesale change in the leadership of the state government. Gladys Berejiklian announced her sudden resignation as premier last Friday, after the state’s Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) told her it would be issuing a public statement naming her as a subject of investigation. Her forced removal has largely been presented in the media as the outcome solely of the allegations against her. But as Berejiklian herself noted, the substantive accusations against her had been known publicly since last October. They hinge on the fact that she did not disclose a personal relationship with Darryl Macguire, a former Liberal MP who has since been accused of corruption. That more was involved in Berejiklian’s ouster was indicated by the rapid departure of other senior figures in her government. Nationals leader and deputy premier John Barrilaro announced on Monday he was quitting politics, citing the stresses of public life. Andrew Constance, a cabinet minister, declared that he was leaving state politics to seek pre-selection for a federal electorate. In effect, the government’s senior leadership stepped down within 48 hours. The upheaval was clearly linked to factional conflicts within the government, with senior figures leaking against one another to the media for months. More fundamentally, however, as statements from Perrottet have made clear, the cleanout is bound up with a broader shift from limited measures aimed at mitigating the worst effects of the pandemic, to a “let it rip” policy that allows the unfettered spread of COVID so that full profit-making activities can resume.

‘A perfect storm’: supply chain crisis could blow world economy off course It was all going so well. Successful vaccination programmes were driving the post-pandemic recovery of the global economy, stock markets were back at record highs, and prices were rising just enough to make deflation fears a thing of the past. But a supply crunch that initially put a question mark over the availability of luxury cars or whether there would be enough PlayStations under our Christmas trees is instead morphing into a full-blown crisis featuring a shortage of energy, labour and transport from Liverpool to Los Angeles, and from Qingdao to Queensland. All the problems are in one way or another tangled up in the surge of post-pandemic consumer demand, but taken together they threaten what one leading economist calls a “stagflationary wind” that could blow the global economy off course. Mohamed El-Erian, and adviser to the insurance giant Allianz and president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, says this week’s surprise fall in factory output in China was a clear warning that the world economy could slump while prices were still rising quickly, a doomsday double whammy that almost sank the UK in the 1970s. “The supply chain problems are much more persistent than most policymakers expected, although companies are less surprised,” he said. “Governments are having to rethink quickly because the three elements – supply side, transport, labour – are coming together to blow a stagflationary wind through the global economy.” Energy shortages are providing the starkest illustration of the problem, with increasing numbers of petrol stations in the UK running out of fuel, and cities in northern China having to ration power and force factories in the world’s number one manufacturing nation to shutter just when pre-Christmas demand is reaching a peak in the west. Both countries have been caught out by not having enough reserves amid a scramble throughout the world for natural gas and for oil, which has almost doubled in price in 12 months to nearly $80 a barrel. Along with ongoing Covid-related restrictions in some large manufacturing countries such as Vietnam, and a well-documented shortage of components such as computer chips, factories are simply not producing enough.British car production dropped by 27% year on year in August as a lack of semiconductors and led to a big drop in the number of vehicles exported to Australia, the US and China. On Thursday, Volkswagen, Ford and Opel maker Stellantis announced fresh temporary closures in Germany because of the chip problem. Opel is closing a plant until 2022 – the longest such stoppage so far.In Japan, an index of stocks of finished goods has dropped to levels not even seen in the wake of 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster.But even if they could get their hands on more sources of energy and materials, and factories could make more goods, it would still cost more to ship things. Drewry’s shipping index, which measures the cost of containers, is up 291%compared with a year ago. On some busy routes, such as from China to Europe’s biggest port Rotterdam, the cost of shipping a container has risen sixfold in the past year. The problems don’t end when the goods arrive at a port, with labour shortages presenting a final problem in the increasingly tortuous journey of products to their final destination. A lack of truck drivers in many parts of Europe, partly because of disputes over conditions and partly because of ongoing Covid restrictions, is causing delays.

The Global Supply Chain Crisis Could Last Until 2023 - Global central bankers have been out and about continuing to promote a narrative that inflation is "transitory." We've seen it from the likes of Powell, Lagarde, Bailey, and Kuroda. Logically, these monetary wonks are right, inflation caused by supply chain bottlenecks will resolve itself, but these officials have yet to provide a timeline because they don't know.For more insight on when global supply chain bottlenecks will subside, Dubai's DP World, one of the biggest international port operators, Chairman and CEO Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem spoke with Bloomberg TV at the Dubai Expo 2020 on Friday and said disruptions could last for another two years. "The global supply chain was in crisis at the beginning of the pandemic," Bin Sulayem said. "Maybe in 2023 we'll see an easing."He pointed to skyrocketing container rates and said price increases are due to shortages and the accumulated delays. "Freight rates will continue to increase, and the shipping lines are having an amazing time," he added. For some context on DP World's operations, it manages the Port of Jebel Ali, also known as Mina Jebel Ali, a deep port located in Jebel Ali, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The port is the world's ninth busiest port. The world's largest shipping line, A.P. Moller-Maersk, recently warned bottlenecks might last longer than expected, and some shippers have pledged to cap spot rates. DHL and UPS have also warned supply chain disorder will not only persist into next year but could leave a permanent scar. Since the crisis was created by surging demand putting strain on container capacity, suppliers, and logistics companies as they struggled to deliver goods, the easiest way to break this vicious cycle is for consumer demand growth to wane. That solution is something countries aren't willing to embark on because it will disrupt their economic recoveries from the virus pandemic lows. Mohamed El-Erian, former PIMCO CEO and chief economic adviser at Allianz, believe that these disruptions "will be with us for a while," prompting producer prices to continue soaring around the world that eventually push up consumer prices. El-Erian warns supply-side troubles could last for one to two years, if not more, which translates into stagflationary winds for the global economy unfamiliar to those who did not live through the 1970s.

‘Pandora Papers’ points to major tax evasion by global financial oligarchy = On October 3, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) in coordination with 600 journalists from 117 countries, began publishing the “Pandora Papers” a series of articles based off of 11.9 million leaked financial services files—totaling nearly three terabytes of data—from 14 companies that provide tax evasion and money laundering services to the financial oligarchy. The ICIJ claims to have “uncovered financial secrets of 35 current and former world leaders, more than 330 politicians and public officials in 91 countries and territories, and a global lineup of fugitives, con artists and murderers.” Included in this list are 130 Forbes billionaires, as well as celebrities, athletes and royalty. Just 100 of the billionaires identified in the Pandora Papers had a combined fortune of more than $600 billion in 2021. Some 150 news outlets participated in the investigation, including the Washington Post, the BBC, the Guardian, Radio France Morocco’s Le Deskand Ecuador’s Diario El Universo. The ICIJ analysis identified 956 companies specializing in offshore tax havens with ties to 336 “high-level politicians and public officials, including country leaders, cabinet ministers, ambassadors and others.” The ICIJ found that “more than two-thirds” of the companies identified were “set up in the British Virgin Islands.” This is the third major exposé on the dealings of the international bourgeoisie published by the ICIJ. In 2016 the ICIJ published the Panama Papers and in 2017 the Paradise Papers. The latter actually contained more files, 13.4 million compared to 11.9 million, however the amount of data contained in the Pandora Papers is more than the Panama or Paradise leaks. Whereas the Panama Papers dealt primarily with with Panamanian corporate service provider Mossack Fonseca, the Pandora Papers encompass records from 14 financial-services companies operating throughout the world, including in Switzerland, Belize and the United Kingdom. The leak also demonstrates the key role US states such as South Dakota, Florida, Nevada and Delaware have assumed in the global tax avoidance scheme. The files were analyzed for nearly two years, and include private emails, secret contracts, bank statements, passports and confidential spreadsheets exposing the intricate money laundering schemes employed by princes, kings, prime ministers, presidents the world over employ in order to protect their ill-gotten wealth and pass it on to their heirs. Among the tools examined by the ICIJ were the use of trusts by the bourgeoisie to ensure that their property remains in their family, tax free, for generations. However, like the previous exposures by the ICIJ, there is a startling gap between the financial details revealed concerning those who are official enemies of US imperialism, compared to Americans. Of the 336 politicians identified in the leaks, none are from the United States, while 19 Russian politicians and 38 Ukrainian politicians were identified. The lack of US politicians named is even more noticeable considering the ICIJ found over $1 billion held in US-based trusts, integral tools for tax avoidance and money laundering. The ICIJ worked with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) in producing the report. According to ICIJ, more than “75 journalists” from OCCRP’s network helped comb through the data. The OCCRP is supported by grants from the United States Agency for International Development, the US State Department, Google Ideas as well as George Soros’s Open Society Foundations. In a comment from Russia’s RT, Kit Klarenberg asked, “Could the CIA be behind the leak of the Pandora Papers, given their curious lack of focus on US nationals?” Likewise, the editor of the Chinese-based Global Times, Hu Zijin, suggested that US and Western “intelligence agencies” were involved in the leaks, writing on Twitter that “They are creating new tools for their political intervention in developing counties.”

IMF cuts global economic forecast as pandemic ‘hobbles’ growth --The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned the world economy remains “hobbled” by the Covid-19 pandemic as she revealed her organisation has revised down its forecast for global growth this year. Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said the most serious obstacle to a full recovery was the vaccine divide between rich and poor nations and warned the global economy could suffer a cumulative $5.3tn loss over the next five years unless it was closed. Speaking ahead of the IMF’s annual meeting next week, Georgieva called on rich countries to make good immediately on their pledges to share stockpiles of vaccines with developing countries. “We face a global recovery that remains hobbled by the pandemic and its impact,” she said. “We are unable to walk forward properly – it is like walking with stones in our shoes! “The most immediate obstacle is the ‘great vaccination divide’ – too many countries with too little access to vaccines, leaving too many people unprotected from Covid.” In July, the IMF predicted 6% growth for the global economy in 2021, but Georgieva said this would be scaled back in new forecasts to be published in next week’s World Economic Outlook. After a summer hit by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising inflationary pressures, the IMF chief said momentum in the US and China – the world’s two biggest economies – was slowing. Although next week’s outlook will still predict a strong bounceback from the decline in global output seen in 2020, Georgieva said “the risks and obstacles to a balanced global recovery have become even more pronounced: the stones in our shoes have become more painful”. Low-income nations were being hit by a combination of limited access to vaccines and a lack of the policy firepower deployed by rich nations to cope with the economic impact of the virus. Georgieva said the divergence in economic fortunes was becoming “more persistent”, adding that while output in advanced economies was projected to return to pre-pandemic trends by 2022, it would take many more years for emerging and developing countries to recover. “We can still reach the targets put forward by the IMF, with the World Bank, World Health Organization and World Trade Organization, to vaccinate at least 40% of people in every country by the end of this year, and 70% by the first half of 2022,” the IMF managing director said. “But we need a bigger push. We must sharply increase delivery of doses to the developing world. Richer nations must deliver on their donation pledges immediately. And, together, we must boost vaccine production and distribution capabilities; and remove trade restrictions on medical materials. “In addition to vaccines, we must also close a $20bn gap in grant financing for testing, tracing, and therapeutics. If we don’t, large parts of the world will remain unvaccinated, and the human tragedy will continue. That would hold the recovery back. We could see global GDP losses rise to $5.3tn over the next five years.”

Inflation Is Back With a Vengeance in Latin America --As prices for many vital goods and services surge across the globe, central bankers in most advanced economies refuse to take their foot off the gas, even as inflation gets stickier. But things are very different in emerging economies. Last year many emerging economy central banks slashed rates to extreme lows as economic activity ground to a standstill and inflation crumbled. But now many of them are frantically hiking them again as inflation returns with a vengeance, largely on the back of forces that are global in scope. They include low inventories, supply chain shocks, soaring shipping costs, labour shortages, extreme weather events, surging demand for certain commodities and consumer goods, and the huge monetary and fiscal stimulus programs still under way in most advanced economies.Latin America’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, have respectively raised rates five times and three times so far this year. There’s likely to be more to come. Although rising commodity prices are largely welcome in the resource-rich region, most countries would rather avoid a return to runaway inflation, especially given the current weakness of their economies. In Brazil and Mexico anybody over the age of 35 can remember what life was like under high — or in Brazil’s case hyper- — inflation. They don’t want to go through it again. Mexico’s inflation rate averaged 23.54 percent between 1964 and 2021, reaching an all time high of 179% in February of 1988. A few years later, as the Tequila Crisis raged, rates briefly surged above 50%. In both crises the impact on the middle and lower classes was brutal and long lasting (graphic courtesy of Trading Economics). Brazil’s inflation rate surged to a record hyper-inflationary high of 6,821% in April of 1990 — higher than Venezuela’s current rate. Like Mexico, it suffered another sharp resurgence in the mid-nineties. In Brazil today inflation rates have tripled over the past year, from 3.1% in August 2020 to an anualized 9.7% in August 2021, its highest level since 2016. In September, the IPCA-15 consumer-price index — a mid-month predictor of the official inflation rate — surged by 1.14% over the month. If the indicator rings true, Brazil will soon report its highest reading for the month of September since 1994. That was when the country had just launched a new currency, the Brazilian Real, after being ravaged by its second bout of hyperinflation in seven years.

European Investment Scammers Allegedly Laundered Their Money through Scotland -- Just before New Year, with a touch of fanfare, police and prosecutors in Ukraine posted a video online. The film, backed by a dramatic, upbeat soundtrack, showed a garage door slowly opening to reveal first a Lamborghini and then a dozen or so other luxury cars. Housed in a shining modern curved-roof structure with slate-grey cladding sat a Rolls-Royce, a Bentley, a Range Rover, a Mercedes, a Porsche and a BMW. These vehicles, according to the title of the YouTube film, were the frozen assets of a group alleged to be involved in an online investment scam which turned over 10 million euros a month between 2017 and 2020. Bavarian investigators had already identified hundreds of victims in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Britain. Now their Ukrainian colleagues were also chasing the proceeds of this alleged crime. Their investigations, openDemocracy can reveal, led them to Scotland. According to submissions for an asset freeze in August this year, Ukrainian investigators had pinpointed bank accounts where 35.9 million euros from the alleged fraud scheme were “accumulated”. These accounts were held in the name of a Scottish limited partnership or SLP, a type of shell company that Transparency International has described as “the go-to money laundering vehicle for criminals in former Soviet States”. Ukrainian prosecutors were, in effect, alleging a UK firm was used to launder the profits of a scam that targeted people in Britain and Europe. The UK entity, Remini Consulting, is named in Ukrainian prosecutorial filings as having paid half a million euros for a Rolls-Royce. Those filings also claimed the entity transferred money from the alleged scam to other British firms, including another SLP and a London limited company. The investigation into fraud and money laundering continues in Ukraine. On Monday, 4 October, law enforcement arrested a third suspect in the city of Dnipro, and reported that pre-trial investigation into one of two other suspects, originally arrested in March, had been completed. For the two men arrested earlier this year, bail has been set at a total of 325 million hryvnya, or roughly eight million pounds. A fourth suspect is currently wanted on an international warrant, prosecutors reported. Ukrainian authorities did not name any suspects in the case. The owners of the frozen property, which included a downtown office block in Kyiv, have successfully contested some aspects of the asset freeze.

Hundreds of healthy pigs slaughtered amid UK shortage of abattoir workers --The slaughter of healthy pigs has begun on British farms, with farmers forced to kill animals to make space and ensure the continued welfare of their livestock, amid an ongoing shortage of workers at slaughterhouses. Pig farmers have been warning for several weeks that labour shortages at abattoirs have led to a backlog of as many as 120,000 pigs left stranded on farms long after they should have gone to slaughter. The meat industry is one of many sectors of the UK economy grappling with labour shortages linked to Brexit and the pandemic, while a lack of delivery workers and drivers has affected supply chains. About 600 pigs have been killed at farms across the country, according to Zoe Davies, the chief executive of the National Pigs Association, who said that culling had begun at a “handful” of farms. Industry experts said the carcasses would most likely be turned into biodiesel and other non-food products, because they cannot be classed as fit for consumption. The majority of pigs slaughtered on farm are expected to be taken to the UK’s rendering plants. Rendering separates fat from meat and bones, and the products can then be used for pet food and animal feed. However, because the pigs will die on farm and not in slaughterhouses, as is the norm, they cannot be approved for human consumption and so will not enter the food chain. “We have moved to stage two,” Davies said. “Stage one was contingency planning and putting pigs in temporary accommodation. Stage two, we have not got any more space and pigs are growing, there are more on farm that we can manage. “You either stop mating sows, which some farmers are doing, or you thin out pigs so the welfare of those on farm isn’t negatively impacted. We shouldn’t have to be here and we shouldn’t be doing this at all.” Animals ready for slaughter but stuck on farms require feeding and housing, causing financial difficulties for farmers. Meanwhile, large pigs which are overdue for slaughter often grow by about 1kg a day, becoming too large for slaughterhouses to handle.

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Saturday, October 9, 2021

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