The Fed Is Subsidizing the Money Market Funds Operated by Larry Fink’s BlackRock as BlackRock Manages a Big Part of Jerome Powell’s Wealth - Pam Martens - Last year, during the financial crisis, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell held five confidential phone calls with BlackRock’s Chairman and CEO Larry Fink. The first call on March 19 lasted 30 minutes; there were two calls in April, one on April 3 and one on April 9, both lasting 15 minutes. A phone call between Powell and Fink on May 13 lasted 30 minutes; and one on November 20 lasted 10 minutes.That’s a total of 100 minutes that the Chairman of the central bank of the United States spent on the phone with the man who heads the company that is also managing a large portion of Powell’s wealth through its iShares Exchange Traded Funds. The dates and times of the phone calls come from Powell’spublicly-released daily calendars.Powell’s phone calls with Fink continued this year. On February 5, Powell held a 30-minute phone call with Fink. On March 1 of this year, there was a bizarre hour-long virtual meeting between Fink and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and Fed staff. (Powell’s daily calendars are only currently available through August of this year.)There is the growing impression that Fink is functioning in a consultant capacity to the Federal Reserve while his company, BlackRock, also manages a significant part of Powell’s wealth. See our earlier report: BlackRock Authored the Bailout Plan Before There Was a Crisis – Now It’s Been Hired by three Central Banks to Implement the Plan.The Fed also gave BlackRock three no-bid contracts in 2020 to manage the Fed’s corporate bond buying programs. Under those contracts, BlackRock was allowed to buy up its own Exchange Traded Funds.Now we are learning from Crane Repo Data, that a big chunk of the Fed’s overly-generous Reverse Repo operations have landed in BlackRock money market funds. Crane Repo Data reports that as of September 30, BlackRock Liquid FedFund money market held $84 billion of the Fed’s Reverse Repos while its BlackRock Liquid T-Fund held $65 billion.The Fed announced on June 16 that it was going to begin paying 0.05 percent interest on its overnight Reverse Repos. Its previous rate had been a big, round zero. That one-day rate of 0.05 percent is incredibly high considering that the six-month Treasury bill is yielding the exact same 0.05 percent, as of this morning.At the time of the Fed’s announcement in June, Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar wrote this:“…the Fed made a policy error: it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it ‘unduly’ high – as one money fund manager put it, ‘yesterday we could not even get a basis point a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.’ ” You could call it a “dream come true” or you could also call it the Fed subsidizing privately-owned money market funds.
Federal Reserve bans stock trading by top officials - The US Federal Reserve on Thursday banned individual stock purchases by top officials at the central bank and unveiled a broad set of other restrictions on their investing activities roughly six weeks after reports of active trading by some senior policymakers triggered an ethics uproar. The new rules will limit the types of financial securities the Fed’s top officials can own, including an outright ban on purchases of individual stocks or holding individual bonds. It also requires advance notice and approval of any transactions, and stipulates investments be held for at least a year. “These tough new rules raise the bar high in order to assure the public we serve that all of our senior officials maintain a single-minded focus on the public mission of the Federal Reserve,” Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell said a statement. In a press release, the Fed said the new rules were meant to “help guard against even the appearance of any conflict of interest in the timing of investment decisions.” The new rules come after two of the 12 regional Federal Reserve bank presidents resigned after reports of their active trading during 2020, when the Fed launched a massive effort to fight the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
A Forensic Look at Jerome Powell’s “Pants on Fire” Explanation for His $1 Million to $5 Million Stock Sale - Pam Martens - On Monday, October 18, the fearless Robert Kuttner at theAmerican Prospect, broke the news that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had sold between $1 million and $5 million of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund on October 1, 2020, the same day that Powell had been on four phone calls with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who was coordinating the White House response to the financial crisis resulting from the pandemic.The story went viral and forced the Federal Reserve to offer a preposterously lame excuse for what was obviously a desire by Powell to reduce his exposure to the stock market, despite his having access to more insider information than any other human on the planet.The same day that Kuttner’s story ran, Mike Derby, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, wrote that a Fed representative had characterized the large Vanguard sale as “for family expenses.”The very next day, Rachel Siegel, reporting for the Washington Post, flatly stated that the sale was for “family expenses,” while also suggesting that Kuttner’s article was an attack job on Powell’s record.To further cement that contrived message in the minds of Fed watchers, the following day, October 20, the international wire service, Reuters, via their reporter, Howard Schneider, again quoted a Fed spokesperson stating that the Vanguard sale was to “cover Powell’s family expenses.”A man with no mortgage on a home with 6.5 baths, who is making over $200,000 a year as Fed Chair, and still needs $1 million to $5 million to cover “family expenses,” is perhaps too elitist to work for the American people at a time when millions of Americans can’t afford rent on a one-bedroom apartment.Any rookie financial advisor on Wall Street could spend 10 minutes looking at Powell’s financial disclosure form and immediately realize that the story the Fed put out was completely lacking in credibility. Even a first-year financial advisor knows that if a family genuinely needs to get their hands on cash, they would be told by their financial advisor to first look to their cheapest source of funds. In Powell’s case, the first place to look would be money already sitting in (wait for it) cash. Per the table below, Jerome Powell’s financial disclosure form lists seven line items described as “Cash Account.” They tally up to a range of $952,002 to $1,980,000.Powell owns a home in Chevy Chase, Maryland that Zillow puts at a value of $4.7 million. Public records show it has no mortgage on it. Powell and his wife are familiar with how easy it is to take out a home equity loan because they previously had a $600,000 home equity line of credit on a previous home they owned in Chevy Chase. The home equity line was with the Chevy Chase Savings Bank.If Powell still needed more funds (although one certainly has to question what on earth they would be for), his financial disclosure form shows on line 1.10 that he owned $1 million to $5 million in the Goldman Sachs Short Duration Tax Free Fund. If Powell’s true motive was not to reduce his exposure to the stock market (based on troubling concerns he had learned as Fed Chairman) then that would have been the fund to sell since short-term instruments have a lot less capital gains embedded in them than do long-term holdings of stocks following a raging bull market.
Another Fed Bank President’s Financial Disclosures Fail the Smell Test - Pam Martens - Private Banks operated by the mega Wall Street banks have an unseemly reputation. So when we opened Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s financial disclosure forms and saw that he had a financial relationship with Morgan Stanley’s Private Bank, a red flag went up immediately. Citibank’s Private Bank was previously the subject of an investigation by the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. The late Senator Carl Levin, explained how private banks work. Levin stated:“Once a person becomes a client of a private bank, the bank’s primary goal generally has been to service that client, and servicing a private bank client almost always means using services that are also the tools of money laundering: secret trusts, offshore accounts, secret name accounts, and shell companies called private investment corporations. These private investment corporations, or PICs, are designed for the purpose of holding and hiding a person’s assets. The assets could be real property, money, stock, art, or other valuables. In 2019, the New York Times revealed how higher ups at JPMorgan Chase’s Private Bank continued to retain sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein as a client, even after he pled guilty to soliciting sex from a minor and was jailed.McClatchy newspapers noted in 2016 that “the Panama Papers are full of examples of the wealth-management and ‘private banking’ divisions of U.S. and global banks working with customers to hide their assets elsewhere. Banks listed in the documents – including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Merrill Lynch and SunTrust – declined to comment.”Morgan Stanley is a bank holding company that is supervised by the Federal Reserve. Officials in the Federal Reserve System should be keeping an arms-length relationship with any supervised entity to avoid the appearance of conflicts-of-interest, or worse.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic spent the bulk of his professional career as a professor and administrator at the University of Southern California prior to joining the Atlanta Fed on June 5, 2017. That’s not the career profile one would expect to find at Morgan Stanley’s Private Bank – which caters to the rich and imposes commission penalties on its private bank wealth advisors if they accept client households having less than $5 million in assets under management with Morgan Stanley, according toreporting at AdvisorHub.Despite the high asset hurdle to get in the door at Morgan Stanley’s Private Bank, Bostic’s 2017 financial disclosure form listed two accounts at the selective bank – one with zero to $1,000 in assets and another with $1,001 to $50,000 in assets. This raises the obvious question: why did Morgan Stanley bend its asset requirement so dramatically for Bostic?By the time Bostic filed his 2020 financial disclosure form, his two accounts at Morgan Stanley’s Private Bank had grown to four accounts: three accounts showing zero to $1,000 in assets and one account with $1,001 to $50,000 in assets. Why would Morgan Stanley’s Private Bank have opened two additional accounts for Bostic with no assets in them, or less than $1,000?Morgan Stanley’s Private Bank describes itself as follows on its website: “An exclusive boutique leveraging the Firm’s global financial resources and delivering bespoke [custom], comprehensive solutions to individuals and families of significant means.” The web page adds that you can “expect a higher standard of care”; have access to “exclusive client events”; receive “personalized attention” and “exclusive offers from 60+ premium brands….”How could any Federal Reserve official think it would pass the smell test to be receiving, or become eligible to receive, exclusive perks not available to the general public from a supervised entity of the Federal Reserve?
10-Year Yield Jumped to 1.66% as Fed’s Waller Got Hawkish, Shredded Inflation Indexes that Strip out Food, Energy & Outliers, Put Faster Taper & Sooner Rate Hikes on Table - Wolf Richter -The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.66% at the moment, the highest since mid-May, after Christopher Waller – President Trump’s December appointment to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors – said in a speechtoday, “If monthly prints of inflation continue to run high through the remainder of this year, a more aggressive policy response than just tapering may well be warranted in 2022.”Waller supports tapering the Fed’s asset purchases “following our meeting in November,” but this whole business about “a more aggressive policy response than just tapering” in 2022 – he put on the table are a faster pace of tapering and rate hikes that would come earlier in 2022 – jostled some nerves in bond land. QE was specifically designed to push down long-term yields, such as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates; and it succeeded superbly. Tapering QE is going to remove a massive buying force – the relentless bid – from the market. And the market is toying with those prospects. At the short end of the Treasury spectrum – from the one-month to one-year yields – not much has changed, all of it below 0.11% today, effectively controlled by the Fed’s grip on that end of the market through its policy rates and trading activities, including the target range for the federal funds rate of 0% to 0.25%, its repo rate of 0.25%, its reverse repo rate of 0.05% – implemented in April to prevent short-term yields from dipping below 0% – and its Interest On Excess Reserves (IOER) of 0.15%.But the 2-year yield has doubled over the past month to 0.41% today, and for the past week has been the highest since March 2020.Mr. Waller, the new man at the Fed, carefully repeated the official line of his boss that inflation may be temporary and might settle down at 2% on its own somehow and then went about to shred this line. He is “greatly concerned about the upside risk that elevated inflation will not prove temporary,” he said. And he said:“Bottlenecks have been worse and are lasting longer than I and most forecasters expected, and an important question that no one knows the answer to is how long these supply problems will persist.“Through our business contacts, we continue to hear stories about bottlenecks at almost every stage of production and distribution—for example, plants that shut down because of a shortage of one or more crucial inputs; a poor cotton crop in the United States due to weather, which is driving up prices; and clogged ports and trucker shortages.“Meanwhile, wage gains have been strong. That apparently has not made its way into prices yet, but how long before it becomes a factor driving inflation?While at the shredder, he also shredded some of the often-cited inflation measures that make inflation appear lower by stripping out food, energy, and the outliers – the price spikes in used vehicles or gasoline or new vehicles or whatever.He specifically pointed at “core” inflation measures that strip out food and energy; and at the “trimmed mean CPI” by the Cleveland Fed and the “trimmed mean PCE” index by the Dallas Fed that strip out any outliers.“A way of manipulating the data,” he called these efforts.
Ugly 20Y Auction Sees Biggest Tail On Record Despite Jump In Foreign Demand --After last week's solid auctions, traders were optimistically eyeing today's 20Y auction - in the form of a 19-Yyear 10-Month reopening - as some speculated that just because this may be the last fully-sized, $24BN auction before the Treasury starts shrinking the notional next month, demand would be stellar. It wasn't.Stopping at 2.100%, more than 30bps above the September 1.795% high yield, the auction not only had the highest yield since June, but tailed dramatically to the 2.075% When Issued, the biggest tail in the 20Y auction history (which, of course, is not that long since the first auction was just last May).The ugliness spread to the bid to cover, which slumped to 2.25 from 2.36, well below the six auction average of 2.36 and also the lowest since May.The internals were not quite as bad with Indirects (i.e., foreigners) rising to 64.8% the highest since July 2020 and the second highest on record, and with Directs taking down 15.6% or a drop from last month's 18.9%, Dealers were left holding 19.6% of the auction the most since July.
Beige Book Hints That US Has Passed "Peak Shortage" - October's Beige Book was headline by the utterly useless comment that "economic activity grew at a modest to moderate rate" that has come to reflect the snoozey name of the report. However, this report had more than its share of issues including most districts seeing "significantly elevated prices", "low supply of workers" amid high demand, and high worker turnover.Somehow the use of the word "shortage" declined in October...Have we really seen "peak shortage"?As The Fed details below: Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate rate, according to the majority of Federal Reserve Districts. Several Districts noted, however, that the pace of growth slowed this period, constrained by supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and uncertainty around the Delta variant of COVID-19. A majority of Districts indicated positive growth in consumer spending; however, auto sales were widely reported as declining due to low inventory levels and rising prices. Travel and tourism activity varied by District with some seeing continued or strengthening leisure travel while others saw declines that coincided with rises in COVID cases and the start of the school year. Manufacturing grew moderately to robustly in most parts of the country, as did trucking and freight. Growth in nonmanufacturing activity ranged from slight to moderate for most Districts. Loan demand was generally reported as flat to modest this period. Residential real estate activity was unchanged or slowed slightly but the market remained healthy, overall. Reports on nonresidential real estate varied across Districts and market segments. Agriculture conditions were mixed and energy markets were little changed, on balance. Outlooks for near-term economic activity remained positive, overall, but some Districts noted increased uncertainty and more cautious optimism than in previous months. Employment increased at a modest to moderate rate in recent weeks, as demand for workers was high, but labor growth was dampened by a low supply of workers. Transportation and technology firms saw particularly low labor supply, while many retail, hospitality, and manufacturing firms cut hours or production because they did not have enough workers. Firms reported high turnover, as workers left for other jobs or retired. Child-care issues and vaccine mandates were widely cited as contributing to the problem, along with COVID-related absences. Many firms offered increased training to expand the candidate pool. In some cases, firms increased automation to help offset labor shortages. The majority of Districts reported robust wage growth. Firms reported increasing starting wages to attract talent and increasing wages for existing workers to retain them. Many also offered signing and retention bonuses, flexible work schedules, or increased vacation time to incentivize workers to remain in their positions.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October - Menzie Chinn - Here is a graph of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, including industrial production, which missed expectations (actual -1.3% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, m/m not annualized): Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from August release (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations. Industrial production was hit partly by after-effects of Hurricane Ida, and also (in manufacturing) by the reductions in auto production. Figure 2: Industrial production (red), and manufacturing production (teal), both in logs, 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. Manufacturing also missed expectations, at -0.7% vs. +0.1% m/m not annualized. That’s two consecutive months of declines for both industrial and manufacturing production. Figure 3: Manufacturing production (teal), and auto and light duty vehicle production (pink), both in logs, 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. We are lagging on measures of real manufacturing and trade industry sales (last observation is July). It might be tempting to infer August numbers from some related series, e.g., retail sales ex.-food services. Figure 4: Manufacturing and trade industries sales (black), retail sales ex.-food deflated by CPI-all (tan), deflated by PPI-finished goods (green), all in logs, 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. Clearly the linkage between manufacturing and trade sales and retail sales is loose, so it’s not clear what one can say about the former series. Summing up, the recovery has clearly slowed down in September.
GDP Forecasts -by Menzie Chinn - The October Wall Street Journal survey of economists, now quarterly, is out. A substantial downshift in the forecasted level of GDP is apparent. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), November 2020 WSJ survey mean (red), July 2021 survey mean (blue), and October 2021 survey mean (green). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, WSJ (various surveys), NBER, and author’s calculations. In early November 2020, the average forecast was for a slow closing of the output gap (using potential GDP as estimated by the CBO in July of this year). By July, optimism had built, implying a zero output gap by mid-2021. As of the October survey, the closing of the output gap had been pushed back to mid-2022 (For an alternative view of the “output gap”, see this post). Figure 2: GDP (bold black), October 2021 WSJ survey mean (green), Survey of Professional Forecasters August survey mean (blue). FT-IGM September survey median (sky blue square), IMF World Economic Outlook October forecast (pink triangle). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, FT-IGM survey, IMF, WSJ (various surveys), NBER, and author’s calculations. Certainly, the short term outlook does seem a bit lackluster, as indicated by monthly metrics (e.g., industrial production, in this post), and by GDP nowcasts (as of today, IHS-MarkIt is at 1.4% q/q SAAR for Q3). The IMF remains noticeably more optimistic than the average WSJ survey respondent, looking more like the Survey of Professional Forecasters prediction.
Recession before the Leaves Fall? - Menzie Chinn - From Blanchflower and Bryson: It seems to us that there is every likelihood that the US is entered recession at the end of 2021. The most compelling evidence is from the Conference Board expectations data for the eight biggest states. Well, that’s certainly provocative. Here’s the abstract:Economic shocks are notoriously difficult to predict but recent research suggests qualitative metrics about economic actors’ expectations are predictive of downturns. We show consumer expectations indices from both the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict economic downturns up to 18 months in advance in the United States, both at national and at state-level. All the recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10 and sometimes many more point drops in these expectations indices. A single monthly rise of at least 0.3 percentage points in the unemployment rate also predicts recession, as does two consecutive months of employment rate declines. The economic situation in 2021 is exceptional, however, since unprecedented direct government intervention in the labor market through furlough-type arrangements has enabled employment rates to recover quickly from the huge downturn in 2020. However, downward movements in consumer expectations in the last six months suggest the economy in the United States is entering recession now (Autumn 2021) even though employment and wage growth figures suggest otherwise. The figure below combines Blanchflower and Bryson’s Chart 2 (on top) with my plot (over the same sample period) of the 10yr-3mo term spread and spread adjusted by the NY Fed’s 10 year term premium (at bottom). Figure 1: Top -Blanchflower and Bryson (2021) Chart 2, of Univ. of Mich. Expectations Index (red dashed line) and Conference Board Sentiment Index (green line); Bottom – 10yr-3mo US Treasury term spread, % (blue line), and term spread adjusted by estimated term premium (brown line); NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Blanchflower and Bryson (2021), and Federal Reserve Board, NBER, and author’s calculations. There is indeed a sharp drop in the two sentiment indexes. On the other hand, the term spread does not signal an incipient recession. To formalize this point, let’s examine the predictions of each indicator, individually and combined, using a 12 month horizon, over the 1978-2019 period (so excludes recession information for 2020). I only test the Michigan sentiment index as I don’t have access to the time series for the Conference Board measure.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 17th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 21.4% from the same day in 2019 (78.6% of 2019). (Dashed line) Note that the dashed line hit a pandemic high over the Labor Day weekend - probably due to leisure travel, but is now at pre-holiday levels. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 16, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday - but might be picking up a little again. The 7-day average for the US is down 8% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 14th. Movie ticket sales were at $147 million last week, down about 12% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through October 2nd. The occupancy rate was down 9.6% compared to the same week in 2019. The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019. Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel. However, this year, so far, business travel has been lighter than leisure travel in 2021. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of October 8th, gasoline supplied was down 1.8% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been six weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - and consumption is running close to 2019 levels now. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through October 15th for the United States and several selected cities. All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 117% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but New York subway usage is down sharply (next graph).This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are under 15 million subway turnstile entries per week, but mostly moving up recently.This data is through Friday, October 15th.Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
Bad Biden Foreign Policy - I have posted on this previously, but not for awhile. The main meme is that for reasons I mostly do not get, Biden has been carrying over a lot of bad Trump foreign policies. Some of them I understand for political reasons, even when they damage the US and world economies. But others seem to be just plain stupid. I am not sure who in his admin are behind these failures: SecState Blinken? NSA Sullivan? Of course in the end this stuff comes down to Biden himself, someone with much greater foreign policy experience than those two or anybody else in the admin. So failures really come down to him.The worst, although it gets little news attention, is Iran. Biden ran on getting back into the Obama-negotiated nuclear JCPOA deal. He should have done so quickly. Yes, there were timing details to negotiate, but apparently those were negotiated. Somehow somebody decided that they should push for crap that Trump wanted but which was dumped when the deal was originally negotiated with great effort, stuff like missile restrictions and Iran support for groups abroad. Anybody who knew anything about this, like me, knew that this stuff was still non-negotiable. So why on earth Blinken et al insisted on Iran caving on any of this was utterly insane and stupid. They could have gotten this deal early, and it would not have triggered anywhere near the negative response the pullout from Afghanistan got (which I supported, but there was no way that was going to happen without a lot of bad publicity and damage in the polls, which has happened). He could have done this cleanly early with minimal fuss. But, no, and now it looks not to be done anywhere in the foreseeable future, and Iran has now accumulated nearly enough U fuel to make a bomb. And I read the admin is now looking to Israel for advice on this? This is a serious and massive failure on Biden’s part. I do not agree with Hannity that he is outright senile, but this border line there, really seriously awful and stupid.Another is the trade issue. Yeah, this is complicated, and I get that Biden is being domestically political. So Obama and Biden negotiated the anti-China TTP, but Trump pulled out, and Hillary would have also, under domestic pressure. Now China is asking to join this actually existing trade group, with the US unbelievably stupidly out. So indeed many in the Dem Party are protectionist, especially those associated with AFL-CIO. And Biden is very close to this faction. But steel tariffs hurt autoworkers in Ohio, with the shutdown at Lordstown partly due to Trump’s steel tariffs. But the idiot workers there still supported Trump for standing up for them or whatever. So in OH it is steel producing Youngstown and Cleveland versus auto producing Lordstown, Akron, and Toledo, but no way any of them will not support protectionism and Trump. So why does Biden support this idiocy? I think in the end it is Pennsylvania, his home state, which is the ultimate steel producing state, with no autos. So, in political terms understandable given what a key state his original home is. There is much more unfortunately.
Biden Tells House Progressives Free Community College Nixed from Reconciliation Bill: Report -President Biden told House progressives on Tuesday that his proposal for free community college would not be included in the final reconciliation package being hammered out by Democrats, multiple sources told CNN.Additionally, Biden said the current child tax credit will be extended by one year instead of being made permanent, and will be means-tested as proposed by Senator Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.). Proposed funding for home-care services for the elderly will also be reduced from $400 billion to below $250 billion.A key priority for congressional progressives — an expansion of Medicare to include vision, dental, and hearing services — will remain in the reconciliation bill, Biden reportedly said.The Biden administration initially proposed a $3.5 trillion spending package earlier this year to be passed in the Senate via budget-reconciliation rules, meaning the package would need support of a simple majority. However, Democrats need all 50 of their Senators to support the bill, and Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have expressed opposition to various components of the package and to the overall price tag.Biden conceded on Friday that the plan would likely cost less and hinted that free community college could be dropped from the package.“To be honest with you, we’re probably not going to get $3.5 trillion this year; we’re going to get something less than that,” Biden said at a child care center in Hartford, Conn., adding later, “I don’t know that I can get it done, but I also had proposed free community college.”
Congress Drafts $725 Billion Defense Budget Amid Talk Reconciliation Bill Is Fiscal Danger – THe United States Congress is on track to spend more than $7 trillion over the next 10 years on the Pentagon, just as it did the previous 10 years. How will we pay for it? Shut up, Commie. We don't ask questions like that around here. That kind of talk is reserved for spending on childcare, or paid parental and sick leave, or responding to the climate crisis. There's a bipartisan deal, extensively haggled upon, to spend $1 trillion on so-called "hard infrastructure" projects over the next decade—roads, bridges, trains. There's another bill, short-handed as "the reconciliation bill," which has the support only of congressional Democrats, and which originally aimed to spend $3.5 trillion on those "care infrastructure" initiatives above—childcare, paid leave—and others. (As usual, Democrats are now working overtime negotiating amongst themselves to make the bill worse.) The hard-infrastructure bill is paid for primarily with wishful accounting. The reconciliation bill is paid for, at least in significant part, with tax hikes on the rich and corporations. But it's the latter bill that apparently poses a grave threat to the fiscal health of the American nation. And as usual, we never even pretend to discuss how we're going to pay for more bombs and bullets and planes that don't work. Swipe that credit card! Is it because we always talk about the defense budget on a single-year basis? The proposed outlay for 2022, newly unveiled in the Senate defense appropriations bill, is $725 billion—$10 billion above what the Pentagon asked for. This is not the first time, by a long shot, that Congress has gone divorced-parent-at-Christmas when it comes to funding the Department of Defense. (Or, perhaps more precisely, funding projects that will bring jobs to this or that congressional district, or forking contracts over to defense contractors who lobby and pay campaign bills.) But the Democratic reconciliation package is almost exclusively referred to as "the $3.5 trillion bill." Rarely are the specific contents discussed—for instance, which programs is Senator Joe Manchin looking to cut and why?—but more to the point, it is never referred to as costing $350 billion a year. Again, we're talking less than half the defense budget.It's hard not to keep one eye on the Manufacturing Consent meter here, because we in the mass media are undoubtedly playing our role. Whether or not you subscribe to the existence—or even possibility—of Objective Journalism, it is simply a fact that nearly everyone involved in national politics at the moment is working to frame this discussion in clear terms: incredibly high levels of military spending are cast as not merely normal, but almost baked into our national priorities. Bringing the United States social-safety net in line with over advanced democracies is cast as a free-spending lefty wishlist. Yes, the current proposals to expand the social-safety net are new, but there has been a systematic failure, accidental or not, to present these proposals in full context.
Progressives see budget deal getting close after Biden meeting - Progressive lawmakers emerged Tuesday from a meeting at the White House saying President Biden has taken charge of the negotiations over his sweeping domestic agenda, is offering specific spending recommendations — and has boosted the Democrats' hopes of winning an agreement in the coming weeks. To create a sense of urgency, Biden is urging lawmakers to put their differences aside and get a bill to his desk before he and other top Democrats head to Glasgow for an international summit on climate change, a gathering that begins on Oct. 31. "I felt that we're closer to a deal than I've ever felt before. I felt the president was engaged in the details of the negotiation in a way he hasn't been before,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), one of nine House progressives who huddled with Biden in the Oval Office. The comments came amid a busy day at the White House, where Biden was toiling to salvage his economic agenda. The president met separately with a pair of centrist senators — Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) — who have resisted his economic plans, then hosted the larger group of progressives before rounding out the day with moderates of both chambers. Vice President Harris and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also participated. The hands-on approach appeared to bear fruit. Manchin, returning from the White House, announced that he was set to launch focused talks with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sinema and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) in an effort to break the months-long impasse that’s threatened to tank the massive social benefits package at the heart of Biden’s domestic policy wish list. Manchin, who wants a much smaller spending package than Sanders and the progressives are pushing, predicted the negotiators could finalize a framework deal by the end of the week. “If they come up with a framework, I think we're good to go,” Khanna said. “The hope is to get it before Glasgow.” There remains some internal disagreement over how to cut the costs that Manchin and the moderates are demanding. Some Democrats want to limit the scope of the benefits package in order to focus on the party’s top priorities and fund them at length — ”to do fewer things better,” in the words of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). Yet Khanna said his takeaway from the Biden meeting was just the opposite, predicting the scope would resemble that contained in the $3.5 trillion “family” benefits package initially championed by Biden. He said it would include a Medicare expansion, to include dental, vision and hearing benefits; an expansion of ObamaCare benefits; child care; universal preschool; paid family leave; and elder care. In a further sign of progress, liberals said they’re ready to accept the elimination of certain benefits they’d championed in the initial $3.5 trillion package. Khanna said the Clean Electricity Performance Program, which is designed to slash utility emissions, is out of the package. He also indicated that liberals are ready to accept means-testing on the child tax credit — though the $60,000 threshold floated by Manchin is a “non-starter,” he said. And Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) confirmed that Biden’s push for free community college would also be cut from the bill, though “there will be something for higher education.” A Democratic source familiar with the progressives meeting confirmed that Biden was working off a piece of paper in the Oval Office meeting, rattling off specific dollar amounts for different parts of his Build Back Better package. For example, Biden said he was eyeing $350 billion for child care and universal pre-kindergarten, two of progressives’ top priorities.
Manchin, Sanders to seek deal on Biden agenda -- Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are seeking to reach a deal on a path forward for President Biden’s economic agenda by the end of the week. The negotiation between the Senate’s most important centrist and leading progressive was described as a “breakthrough” by one Democratic senator amid stalemated talks over a Senate-passed infrastructure bill and a larger social spending package being crafted in the House and Senate. “We’ve made breakthroughs,” the Democratic senator said, describing a sense of optimism shared by multiple Senate Democrats after a lunch meeting where Manchin said he would work directly with Sanders. “Universally there was a desire to get this done by the end of this week,” said a Democratic senator who participated in the meeting and noted that Manchin indicted he will try to reach agreement with Sanders on a framework for the reconciliation package by week’s end. Manchin and Sanders met for the second time this week Tuesday evening just off the Senate floor, a sign that they’re working quickly to get a deal as soon as possible. “I think this thing has dragged on for a very long time and the American people want it to be resolved,” Sanders said after the meeting, adding he and Manchin will meet again this week. “I think there’s a strong feeling within the caucus that we either fish or cut bait to get this thing done or we don’t get it done but that it does not continue to drag on forever,” he said. Sanders and Manchin over the weekend had seemed to be at each other’s throats, with Sanders writing an op-ed in a West Virginia newspaper decrying Manchin’s position on the economic negotiations. The Sanders op-ed in the Charleston Gazette-Mail argued that giving Medicare the power to negotiate lower prescription drugs and expanding Medicare benefits — something that Manchin has expressed opposition to — would help West Virginians. “Poll after poll shows overwhelming support for this legislation. Yet, the political problem we face is that in a 50-50 Senate we need every Democratic senator to vote ‘yes.’ We now have only 48. Two Democratic senators remain in opposition, including Sen. Joe Manchin,” Sanders wrote in a jab at his colleague. That triggered a furious response from Manchin, who is known to dislike interventions by other politicians in his home state. He hit back in a tweet accusing Sanders of wanting “to throw more money on an already overheated economy while 52 other senators have grave concerns about this approach” and dismissed Sanders as an “out-of-stater.” But on Monday, Sanders and Manchin posed for some awkward photos outside the Capitol after they met and spoke to reporters about their efforts to overcome their differences.
Jayapal vows passage of infrastructure, reconciliation bills --Leader of the House Progressive Caucus Pramila Jayapal vowed this week that both the bipartisan infrastructure package and the massive, hotly debated reconciliation bill, otherwise known as the “human infrastructure” package, will pass in Congress — but stopped short of providing a timeline. During MSNBC’s “The Rachel Maddow Show” on Monday, Jayapal (D-Wash.) revealed it was “great to spend time” with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) to discuss the bill, after the two — and several others — have gone back and forth over the price tag of the reconciliation package for weeks. The ongoing negotiations have delayed the passage of the infrastructure bill, causing frustration on both sides of the aisle. However, Jayapal, who has been leading the charge for the progressives, promised both pieces of legislation will pass. “We’re going to get them both done. We are going to get them done. It is a messy process. Democracy is not always easy. Negotiation is not always easy,” she said. “There are differences. Everybody knows there are differences. We have to bridge them, and we got to come together because, at the end of the day, we have to deliver both these bills, the infrastructure bill and Build Back Better Act, to the president’s desk.” “I have always been happy to talk to anybody. It was great to spend time with Senator Manchin today. I’m not going to get into the details of what we talked about. I think it is important for us to be talking to each other,” she added. Jayapal’s comments came hours after Manchin and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) stood shoulder to shoulder and smiling outside the Capitol. “We’re talking,” Manchin said, a statement Sanders repeated. When asked if they would reach agreement on the final form of the bill by this weekend, Sanders again stated: “We’re talking.” Moments earlier, Sanders told reporters: “I think there is a general feeling that negotiations have been going on for month after month after month, and that it is time that we had — we brought this thing to a head as soon as we possibly can. And I would hope that we’re gonna see some real action in the next — within the next week or so.”
Democrats at odds with Manchin over child tax credit provision --Sen. Joe Manchin’s position on the child tax credit has proved an obstacle for Democrats as they craft their social spending package, with both progressives and fellow moderates taking issue with the West Virginia Democrat’s stance. Manchin said that he wants there to be work requirements for the credit. He has also indicated he thinks there should be “means testing” to lower the income limits for the expanded credit. Democratic lawmakers and left-leaning groups say Manchin’s proposal could weaken the tax credit’s ability to reduce child poverty and help families cover critical expenses. “I think that this talk about means testing for what is essentially a tax cut is wrongheaded. The expanded child tax credit is a tax cut,” Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) told reporters Tuesday. The coronavirus relief law President Biden signed in March included a one-year expansion of the child tax credit. Now, Democrats are pushing to extend the expansion as part of their multitrillion-dollar package that is expected to include funding for child care, education, health care and climate. Previously, taxpayers had to have had at least $2,500 in earned income to be eligible to get any credit, and the credit amount gradually increased above that threshold. As a result, an estimated 27 million children received no credit or a partial credit because they were part of low-income families. Biden’s relief law made the lowest-income families eligible for the full credit amount — a concept known as full refundability. The coronavirus relief law increased the maximum credit amount from $2,000 per child to $3,600 for each child under age 6 and $3,000 for each child ages 6 to 17. In addition, the measure directed the IRS to create a program under which the agency makes monthly advance payments so that families receive portions of the credit in installments. The White House and congressional Democrats view the full refundability portion of the expansion as particularly critical for helping low-income families. Both Biden and the House Ways and Means Committee have proposed as part of the social spending package making the credit fully available permanently for the lowest-income families, while extending other parts of the expansion through 2025. In contrast, Manchin in recent weeks has suggested that taxpayers should be working or pursuing their education in order to qualify for the child tax credit. The senator’s interest in a work requirement has received renewed attention in recent days after Axios reported on Sunday that Manchin told the White House that this is his priority. “There’s no work requirements whatsoever. There’s no education requirements whatsoever for better skill sets,” Manchin said on CNN last month. “Don’t you think if we’re going to help the children, that the people should make some effort?”
Budget trade-offs come into focus as Democrats seek consensus - Some of the trade-offs Democrats are likely to make as they pare back a partisan spending and tax package they're aiming to pass through the filibuster-proof reconciliation process began to crystallize Tuesday. A proposal to subsidize two years of free community college is likely out. Tax credits expanded in the March coronavirus relief law to help families pay for health insurance and raising children won’t be extended for as long as most members wanted. A key proposal for pushing utility companies to switch to renewable energy sources needs to reworked or replaced to appease Sen. Joe Manchin III, D-W.Va. These are all ways the package is likely to change as Democrats prepare to cut what was once envisioned to be a $3.5 trillion package down to around $2 trillion, according to several Democrats who attended negotiating meetings Tuesday at the White House. Democrats hope to reach agreement this week on an updated "framework." The public airing of specific potential cuts and trims represented a step toward that goal after Democrats spent weeks debating the best strategy for dropping the price tag. Progressives want to keep most programs in the bill but fund them for shorter periods. Many moderates want to fund fewer programs but make them permanent or long enough to be fully implemented and gain traction with the public. President Joe Biden, who has been hosting meetings with key lawmakers at the White House in an effort to identify a compromise package in the $2 trillion ballpark, leaned more toward progressives’ approach as he talked to lawmakers about potential cuts. “I think he is with us that we need to invest in as many of those transformational areas as possible, even if it means for some of them a shorter amount of time,” Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal of Washington said after members of her caucus talked with Biden. After meeting with key centrist holdouts Manchin and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in the morning, Biden offered compromise scenarios for various provisions in two afternoon group meetings. He first met with Jayapal and eight other House progressives, followed by a group of eight moderates, three senators and five House members. Four of the five House moderates were members of the New Democrat Coalition, including its chairwoman, Suzan DelBene of Washington. The coalition has argued that a smaller package should focus on long-term certainty for a handful of priority programs. That approach got a boost earlier Tuesday from House Majority Steny H. Hoyer, who said, “My own view is we ought to do fewer things better.” But with Biden pushing to trim more programs rather than cut them completely from the package, New Democrats acknowledged they’ll have to settle for creating fiscal cliffs that aren’t ideal for creating lasting policy. “If that's what we have to do to get a bill moving forward, we'll continue working on making some of these programs more permanent,” Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., one of the coalition’s vice chairs, said. The New Democrats had previously suggested prioritizing four areas, two of which are now vulnerable to cuts. The coalition wanted to extend a costly but popular expansion of the child tax credit enacted in the March coronavirus relief law through at least 2025, as in the House bill. Progressives supported that too, but now Democrats are discussing extending it through 2023, or even earlier. “I don't think it will be as many years as we want,” Jayapal said. “There was some pushback on having it be too short, so we'll see where that ends up.” New Democrats also wanted to permanently extend the March law’s expansion of premium tax credits for purchasing health insurance and providing broader access to Medicaid in states that did not expand the program. Bera said the health insurance subsidies won’t be made permanent, but he’s not sure about the Medicaid program. The only common priority New Democrats shared with the Congressional Progressive Caucus was going big on climate programs that aim to reduce carbon emissions. Both sides are still fighting for that, mainly against Manchin, whose opposition to a $150 billion "clean electricity performance program" has Democrats looking at how else they can get to Biden’s goal of cutting carbon emissions in half by 2030. “As encouraged as I am on the other aspects of the deal, I am concerned that we're not where we need to be on climate,” Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., said. Huffman, who attended the progressives’ meeting, said he argued that Democrats shouldn’t cut the clean energy program from the package “without a herculean effort to try to make it work for Sen. Manchin.” He said he even floated the idea of creating a separate program for energy producers in West Virginia to accommodate Manchin’s interest in carbon capture technology for the coal and natural gas industries that dominate his state. Huffman declined to say how the White House received that idea, but one thing Biden and progressives agreed on is that the bill needs to produce emission reductions that will meet his 50 percent target.
Manchin climate stance threatens to shatter infrastructure bargain -- Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) refusal to support the centerpiece of President Biden’s climate agenda puts the Democrats’ entire infrastructure and social spending agenda at risk. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) two-track strategy for passing Biden’s agenda was based on the expectation that Manchin would give ground to progressives in exchange for their support of the hard infrastructure bill that he and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) negotiated with Republicans. But Manchin’s infrastructure bill, including billions of dollars in new money for West Virginia’s needs — such as the Appalachian Development Highway System — has passed the Senate and he’s still not signing on to the climate investments that are a key demand of progressive Democrats. His staunch opposition to a $150 billion clean electricity plan that was supposed to be the backbone of Biden’s transition to clean energy puts what was supposed to be a grand bargain between moderate and progressive Democrats in danger. Without Manchin, Democratic leaders likely won’t have the votes in the Senate to pass the $2 trillion to $3 trillion social spending package through reconciliation. But gutting the bill’s climate provisions risks Democrats losing the votes of progressives in the Senate for the reconciliation bill and in the House for the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) says his fellow Democrats are growing increasingly nervous. They know the longer talks drag on, the more likely that disagreements will become entrenched. “The longer we wait, the less likely that we’re going to produce a product that the American people are anxious to receive,” Durbin warned, emphasizing that his colleagues are feeling “anxious.” Durbin said he was disappointed that Manchin has seemingly knocked one of the key climate reforms out of the bill. “I support the clean electricity approach and I’m sorry that Sen. Manchin’s opposed to it,” he said. Durbin acknowledged Monday that failure to pass legislation to significantly slash the emissions of global warming gasses would be seen as a major failure. Manchin on Monday pushed back against criticism from fellow Democrats that he’s holding up Biden’s agenda by not reciprocating the support progressives gave to his bipartisan infrastructure bill this summer. He argued that he and Sinema aren’t the only obstacles to Biden’s most ambitious proposals, noting that there is universal opposition from Republicans. “There are 52 senators who don’t agree, OK? And there are 52 senators who don’t agree, and there are two who want to work something out if possible, in the most rational, reasonable way,” he said. Manchin also raised doubts about meeting an Oct. 31 deadline for getting a deal worked out, telling reporters: “I don’t know how that would happen.” Progressives led by Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) have warned for months they would not support a massive budget reconciliation package if it did not include bold reforms to cut carbon emissions. “At the end of the day, we’re going to have a deal and it’s going to be good enough on climate or it won’t go,” Whitehouse said last month. Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) is now warning she won’t support the reconciliation bill unless it includes major environmental reform. “The Build Back Better budget must meaningfully address climate change. I’m open to different approaches, but I cannot support a bill that won’t get us where we need to be on emissions. There are 50 Democratic senators. Every one of us is needed get this passed,” she tweeted. A Democratic senator on Monday evening said Manchin’s firm opposition to the clean electricity program is imperiling the whole dual-track strategy because progressives made clear during the debate on the bipartisan infrastructure package that they expected major climate provisions to pass later in the year. “It’s a real risk. We’re all very frustrated and we’re all very nervous about it,” the senator said of the danger that both the hard infrastructure and the budget reconciliation bill may go nowhere. “It’s proving very hard to get all the key players in the room to hammer it out, in part because of Manchin’s desire for a strategic pause. He doesn’t want to work it out. It’s a big problem.” Whitehouse on Monday said if the clean electricity program is out of the bill, it will have to be replaced with other reforms that would have as much impact.
Manchin Obstructs Climate Progress as His Family Is Hit by “Unbelievable” Storms - West Virginia conservative Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin is obstructing a key climate proposal in the Build Back Better Act, sparking outrage among progressives and climate advocates who say that this is the Democrats’ last chance to meet emissions targets set by international agreements and President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Manchin’s cousin-in-law has said that the senator’s opposition to climate progress will affect his own family.According to the New York Times, it’s likely that the clean electricity program known as the Clean Energy Performance Program, or CEPP, will be cut from the bill due to Manchin’s opposition. Manchin chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and is in charge ofcrafting the climate portion of the bill.Manchin has been hinting at wanting to water down the CEPP during negotiations, but killing it outright is a new position from the senator, one that lines up with his status as a coal baron and with the campaign his fossil fuel lobbyist friends have waged against climate action.The CEPP would drive down emissions over the next decades by rewarding utilities for using clean energy sources like wind and solar and punishing utilities that don’t meet certain benchmarks. It would lead to an emissions reduction of about 82 percent of 2005 levels by the end of the decade, on track with Biden’s emissions reduction goals. It would also be the nation’s first federal policy aimed specifically at reducing greenhouse emissions.Because the CEPP falls under reconciliation, which requires only a simple majority to pass the Senate, it is likely the Democrats’ only chance at passing meaningful climate legislation before the 2022 midterm elections — when early projections say that Democrats couldlose control of Congress. As the New York Times reported on Sunday, Manchin’s obstruction could directly affect his own family. Manchin’s hometown of Farmington has been affected by overwhelming rains and flooding over the past years. The storms are likely worsening due to the climate crisis, which can create more precipitation in places like Farmington, a small town surrounded by a creek on three sides.“These last few years here in West Virginia, we’ve had unbelievable amounts of rain,” Jim Hall, who is married to Manchin’s cousin, told theNew York Times. “We’ve seriously considered not staying.” Hall recalled a 2017 flood when he and his wife had to be rescued from inside their home. He also spoke about having to help his neighbors — Manchin’s sister and brother-in-law — clear out their basement to prepare for storms.That Manchin’s radical and climate-denying obstruction could harm his own family is ironic considering he often cites workers in his home stateas a reason to oppose climate legislation. But coal actually plays a relatively small role in his state’s economy, and it’s unlikely that he actually cares about coal workers, since he has rejected a plan to subsidize coal workers’ incomes while they shift away from the dying industry.The climate crisis will also affect other residents in West Virginia, many of whom don’t have the resources to move when climate disasters hit their neighborhoods. While West Virginia officials are struggling to protect residents from the worsening effects of the climate crisis, Manchin is collecting lobbyist funds.Progressive lawmakers have expressed frustration over Manchin’s obstruction of the CEPP. “We cannot advance legislation that makes the climate crisis worse,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) on Twitter. “The Exxon-designed ‘bipartisan’ infrastructure plan worsens emissions, but pairing it w/clean energy in Build Back Better neutralizes BIF’s harm and lets us tackle the climate crisis. We cannot afford to gut it.”Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Michigan) also spoke out against Manchin and conservative Democrats, saying, “The most frustrating challenge in Congress right now is the fact that some would rather do nothing.”
Manchin pushback alters White House climate strategy - The Washington Post - The White House is scrambling to salvage a key proposal to reduce carbon emissions and deliver on President Biden’s ambitious climate agenda, as pushback from Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) creates new headaches for the administration entering international talks next month.The fight revolves around the Clean Energy Performance Program, which Democrats have proposed as a way to reward utilities that increase their clean energy supply by 4 percent each year, while penalizing those that don’t. Lawmakers have included it as part of a tax-and-spending package that aims to advance Biden’s broader economic vision.But the emissions-reduction program has drawn fierce public and private opposition from Manchin, whose home state of West Virginia depends heavily on coal. The standoff has jeopardized Biden’s pledge to halve emissions by 2030, inspiring a new flurry of last-minute policy proposals just two weeks before the president and other world leaders are set to convene the most important global climate talks in a quarter century.One of the newer ideas under consideration would establish a voluntary emissions trading system among aluminum, steel, concrete and chemicals manufacturers that would provide federal funding to help companies curb pollution, according to two people close to the negotiations.But it remains unclear how exactly the program would be structured, and whether it would be sufficient to satisfy Democratic lawmakers who have demanded aggressive climate action, added the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private discussions. Some in the party have taken the opposite approach from Manchin, fearing they risk squandering a generational opportunity to respond to the dire growing consequences of a steadily warming planet. The tense talks have added to the high political stakes for Biden as he prepares to travel to Glasgow, Scotland, for a United Nations climate summit next month. The Sierra Club, an environmental group, stressed in a statement Saturday that Democrats needed to preserve the CEPP, as it is known, or deliver investments in “other climate priorities to close the emissions gap and meet the president’s international climate goals in the coming days and weeks as the U.N. climate negotiations near.” Even the president’s top envoy for climate, former secretary of state John F. Kerry, delivered a stark warning this week, stressing that a failure to adopt climate legislation promptly could undermine the United States at a time when it hopes to encourage other countries to take action. Biden, however, dismissed the comments Friday evening as “a little hyperbole,” adding, “It’d be good to have agreement on the climate piece, but we’re going to get the climate piece.” The uncertainty around climate change reflects only part of the challenge facing the president’s economic agenda, which remains mired in political disputes among Democrats on Capitol Hill. From its current $3.5 trillion price tag to the proposed tax increases that would help finance it, the party’s liberal and centrist factions remain at odds over its size and scope, preventing lawmakers from forging ahead since their legislative ambitions require unanimity to prevail.
Joe Manchin Campaign Donors Include Energy Industry, GOP Backers – Bloomberg - Senator Joe Manchin raked in hundreds of thousands of dollars from donors in the energy industry in the third quarter, including some from contributors who normally back Republicans, according to his latest filing with the Federal Election Commission.Manchin is opposed to environmental provisions, as well as the ultimate price tag, in the Democrats’ proposed $3.5 trillion spending bill that addresses a wide range of the party’s policy priorities. His home state of West Virginia is the second-biggest U.S. coal producer after Wyoming.The White House and Democratic congressional leaders are discussing how to scale back the social-spending measure to win the votes of Manchin and another holdout Senate Democrat, Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema.
Democrats' landmark climate proposal teeters - The Democrats’ central climate plan in the $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package is hanging by a thread as lawmakers return from a weeklong recess that failed to cool tense deliberations on major aspects of President Biden’s agenda. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) delivered a wobbling blow to the $150 billion Clean Electricity Payment Program late last week, according to multiple media reports and E&E News sources. A source familiar with negotiations described the CEPP on Friday night as being on "life support," confirming to E&E News that "Manchin said it’s off the table," with the White House now "working on alternatives" to reduce emissions. White House and congressional aides are now scrambling to develop policies or make changes to the CEPP to get Manchin aboard. Adding to the tension is the administration’s attempts to secure global greenhouse gas reductions at the upcoming COP26 conference. "I think it’d be good to have an agreement on the climate piece, but we’re going to get the climate piece," Biden told reporters during brief remarks at the White House on Friday. For now, the CEPP isn’t all the way dead — yet. Manchin has for weeks publicly spelled out his opposition. He’s raised concerns about paying utilities to deploy clean energy when many are already doing so. He’s also worried about electric reliability as the grid continues to depend more on renewables. “This shouldn’t be viewed as unexpected,” said Paul Bledsoe, a strategic adviser with the Progressive Policy Institute. “We knew that the CEPP was going to be a hard sell in the Senate for a variety of reasons.” Another source familiar with negotiations said the CEPP is not totally off the table yet and that negotiators are continuing to seek a version of the policy that Manchin could accept. That could mean a variety of changes to the plan drawn up last month by the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Negotiators could, for instance, tweak the annual clean energy deployment targets, currently at 4 percent, or raise the emissions intensity benchmark to allow for more fossil fuels with carbon capture. Another possibility is that negotiators try to find a way to get more emissions reductions without the CEPP, from clean energy tax policies or a carbon pricing proposal supported by Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and other members of his committee.
Democrats Weigh Carbon Tax After Manchin Rejects Key Climate Provision - The New York Times — Some House and Senate Democrats, smarting from a move by Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, to kill a major element of President Biden’s climate plan, are switching to Plan B: a tax on carbon dioxide pollution. A carbon tax, in which polluting industries would pay a fee for every ton of carbon dioxide they emit, is seen by economists as the most effective way to cut the fossil fuel emissions that are heating the planet. The almost certain demise of the clean electricity program at the heart of Mr. Biden’s agenda — which comes as scientists say forceful policies are needed to avert climate change’s most devastating impacts — has prompted outrage among many Democrats and has led several to say now is the moment for a carbon tax. “I’ve had a carbon pricing bill in my desk for the last three years just waiting for the time,” said Senator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. “What has been striking is the number of senators who’ve come to me about this since early fall — after Louisiana got clobbered with storms, the East Coast flooding, the Bootleg wildfires here in my own state,” said Mr. Wyden, speaking by telephone on Saturday from Oregon. “Now there are a number of senators, key moderate senators, who’ve said they’re open to this. And a lot of House folks who have said they would support it if the Senate sends it over.” But a carbon tax can be politically explosive. Industries could pass along their higher costs, leaving President Biden and fellow Democrats vulnerable to claims that they are raising taxes on the middle class, at a moment when inflation and energy prices are rising. Environmental justice advocates say a carbon tax permits companies to continue polluting, albeit at a higher cost, which disproportionately harms low-income communities. And it is unclear if Mr. Manchin, whose vote is crucial to Mr. Biden’s legislative agenda, would support a carbon tax. As a result, the White House is scrambling to come up with alternatives to replace the $150 billion clean electricity program that had been the centerpiece of Mr. Biden’s climate agenda until just days ago, when Mr. Manchin indicated he strongly opposed it. That program would have rewarded utilities that stopped burning fossil fuels in favor of wind, solar and nuclear energy, and penalized those that did not. It was intended to push the nation’s electricity sector to generate 80 percent of its power from clean energy sources by 2030, from 40 percent now. As they seek alternatives, White House officials are also weighing a voluntary version of a cap-and-trade program, which would create a market for polluters to buy and sell allowances for a certain amount of emissions. They are also considering adding to the $300 billion in clean energy tax incentives and credits that remain in the bill, while looking for ways to salvage some parts of the clean electricity program. A White House official said on Saturday that staff members were still engaging with members of Congress and had not yet agreed to a final version of climate provisions. The cut to the climate change program could be among the first consequential decisions in what will very likely be a painful process for Democrats as they pare their ambitious $3.5 trillion domestic policy package. Mr. Manchin and another Democrat, Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, have said they cannot support that spending level. Over the next two weeks, the White House will negotiate with Democrats over cuts to dozens of programs, as lawmakers try to whittle the original bill to about $2 trillion. Mr. Biden suggested on Friday that one of his agenda’s signature items — two years of free community college — was also on the chopping block, and progressive lawmakers worried about whether plans to provide paid family leave and expand Medicare to include vision, dental and hearing benefits could survive.
Manchin, Tester voice opposition to carbon tax --Two Democratic senators on Tuesday expressed opposition to including a carbon tax in the massive social spending plan as Democrats scramble to make good on their pledge to combat climate change. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Tuesday poured cold water on the renewed chatter of including a carbon tax. Asked about a carbon tax, which would effectively place a fee on carbon dioxide and methane emissions, Manchin said the idea was not under discussion. "We're not — the carbon tax is not on the board at all right now," Manchin told reporters. Pressed if he could get behind a carbon tax, Manchin reiterated that it was "not on the board." Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.), another red-state Democrat, said he also wasn’t supportive of a carbon tax. “I’m not a big fan of the carbon tax. I just don’t think it works the way it was explained to me,” Tester said. A carbon tax has strong supporters within the Senate Democratic Conference but Manchin has long been skeptical of the idea, telling reporters in September, when it was last floated, that "any type of a tax is going to be passed on to the people.” But it jumped back into the spotlight as Democrats scramble for alternatives after Manchin closed the door on including in their spending package the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP), which incentivizes companies toward clean energy sources. “If the CEPP has fallen out of the package, that makes the methane and carbon pollution fees even more critical as a pathway to safety,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) told The Hill this week. Because Democrats are using reconciliation, a budget process, to pass the bill without GOP support, any ideas need total unity from all 50 Senate Democrats.
Democrat Plans Plunge Deeper Into Chaos After Sinema Opposes Tax Hikes; May Leave Top Rates Unchanged -Senate Democrats are starting to freak out over Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's opposition to tax increases - a crucial component of their attempt to pass over $4.5 trillion between two spending packages.Sinema is one of two moderate Democrats - the other being Sen. Joe Manchin (WV) holding up their party's spending agenda over their refusal to support the massive spending legislation. According to the Wall Street Journal, Sinema has told lobbyists that she won't stand for significant increases in taxes on businesses, high-income individuals, or capital gains - pushing Democrats to 'more seriously plan for a bill that doesn't include those major revenue increases."While the Journal reports that Sinema is opposed to a wide swath of tax increases as described above, CNBC's Kayla Tausche reports that the Arizona moderate has told 'outside groups' that her topline figures are 24% corporate taxes, no increase to the carried interest tax, and a ceiling of 39.6% as the top individual tax bracket. It's unclear exactly where Sinema stands, however Dow Jones reported a short while ago that congressional Democrats are now considering leaving top tax rates unchanged. That said, going after tax cheats with a beefed-up IRS, and tightening the net on US companies' ability to earn money abroad, are still on the table.Democrats had been hoping to pay for the entirety of their social policy and climate bill, now expected to cost around $2 trillion over a decade, with revenue from tax increases and government savings. In the House, Democrats have proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 26.5% from 21%, moving the top individual rate to 39.6% from 37% and increasing the top capital-gains rate to 28.8% from 23.8%. Their plan would also add a 3% surtax on income above $5 million. -WSJ"I know some folks want to take away rate increases, it makes getting there using more interesting ideas—I want to get there but I’ve got a long way to go," said Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), a member of the Senate Finance Committee. Meanwhile, coastal Democrats are still trying to find a way to hook up their rich constituents with a SALT cap modification, according to Bloomberg.The scaled-back spending package Democrats are wrangling over in Washington could still include a measure to expand or temporarily remove the cap on the federal deduction on state and local taxes. House Ways and Means Committee Chair Richard Neal said addressing the $10,000 limit imposed by Republicans in their 2017 tax overhaul is still on the table. “Yes, it has to be,” Neal said when asked about it Wednesday."The strong consensus amongst the overwhelming majority of the members of the New York and New Jersey delegation is that some relief in terms of SALT should be part of this legislation," said Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), a member of Democratic leadership.Democrats had previously entertained a two-year repeal of SALT, which would cost roughly $180 billion, however leadership is already struggling with how cut the top-line spending on the $3.5 trillion social spending package to win support from Sinema and Manchin - who won't likely support a giant handout to wealthy Americans that would reduce revenues to pay for the legislation.
'More than one way': Dems mull options for climate program - Lawmakers are in a new phase of negotiations on the climate provisions of the reconciliation bill, as they attempt to come up with ideas to replace the flailing Clean Electricity Performance Program. The crucial question for Democrats now is how to slash greenhouse gas emissions enough to meet President Biden’s climate targets in a world where the CEPP, as currently conceived, is all but declared dead. That could mean a new system of state block grants with emissions reduction incentives, according to lawmakers and sources familiar with negotiations. It could mean an overhauled version of the CEPP. It could mean Democrats don’t write a new program for the power sector and instead seek the emissions reductions they need elsewhere, potentially via a carbon tax. Or it could mean they simply expand other programs already in the House reconciliation package to complement a package of clean energy tax proposals. “We’re truly in an idea generation phase. Everybody is focused on the emission reduction goals,” Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), one of the CEPP’s architects, told reporters yesterday. “I think we all still really believe that if you get emissions reductions in the power sector and then you electrify transportation and heating and cooling and buildings, that you get that multiplier effect that’s so powerful,” Smith said. “But there’s more than one way to skin this cat.” While lawmakers were still largely loathe yesterday to get into specifics on what proposals were being floated to replace the CEPP, Democrats for the first time started to articulate more details about what might be on the negotiating table. There also appeared to be some more movement in discussing the issue internally, rather than just inside the White House, and trying to find consensus across both chambers. Smith huddled virtually yesterday with the Congressional Progressive Caucus, at the invitation of Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), to discuss CEPP alternatives. Jayapal, in turn, described herself as being in “close contact” and in “close coordination” with Smith. Smith ticked off a list of potential options for replacing the CEPP, including an economywide carbon tax, a fee on industrial emissions, additional investments in transmission and potential policies targeted at decarbonizing high-emissions industrial processes, like cement production. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has at this point ruled out both the CEPP and a carbon tax, but Smith insisted there still could be a way to adapt the performance program to his liking.
The Democrats Have a Lot of Cutting to Do - The New York Times –(see graphic) As Democrats in Congress debate how to pare back their big social spending bill — to a total budget increase of less than $2 trillion over a decade — they have even further to go than it may appear.The Congressional Budget Office has said it is “unclear when” it will provide official estimates for the entire proposal written by the House last month. So we’ve turned to what several budget experts say are the best available estimates of the cost of everything in the bill, compiled by Don Schneider, an economist at Cornerstone Macro. The figures, detailed in the tables below, show that lawmakers’ starting point is far higher than the $3.5 trillion number they had used to describe the package initially.All the new spending and new tax cuts and credits in the bill add up to closer to $4.7 trillion over a decade, the result of an ambitious agenda and some optimistic thinking about the pricetag. The target number President Biden discussed with lawmakers this week would be less than half as much, an effort to win the votes of reluctant centrist Democrats. Lawmakers have also proposed a series of tax increases and spending cuts to substantially offset those costs.Wherever possible, Mr. Schneider used numbers from the official scorekeepers — the C.B.O. or the Joint Committee on Taxation. Some of the other figures were provided by House committee fact sheets or were estimated based on official scores of similar legislation.Mr. Schneider was a Republican congressional staffer before taking his current job, and he personally has concerns about the budgetary effects of the legislation. But he said his estimates were not intended to exaggerate the costs of the bill, but to help investors understand the possible effects of the legislation.“I’m serving market participants,” he said. “This is my best guess of what it is.”Democratic leaders have signaled that programs to help children and families will be a major focus of the legislation, and the House bill includes a number of such policies. The child tax credit was written as a near-universal policy of monthly payments to parents with children for four additional years. A program would subsidize child care for families that use it. Another would help states establish pre-kindergarten classes in public schools. The legislation would expand the Family and Medical Leave Act to provide paid leave to workers when they need to miss work because of childbirth or family illness.Together, these proposals could use up the entire White House budget for the bill: $1.9 trillion, according to the estimates. To reduce the cost, Democrats could pare the number of family programs, or make them temporary. They could also make policy changes to reduce their generosity, such as capping eligibility for some programs at a lower income threshold. Senator Joe Manchin, a centrist Democrat whose vote is required to support the package, has requested income cutoffs and work requirements for some of the family programs. Paid leave could be narrowed by reducing the number of weeks workers are paid for medical leave.Some progressive lawmakers strongly prefer trimming the package by preserving more policies but shortening their timeline, a bid to demonstrate their value and encourage their renewal. Other Democrats prefer selecting a few key programs and making them permanent — to make them harder to kill. In meetings with Democratic lawmakers Tuesday, President Biden said the child tax credit might need to be extended for only one year, not the four imagined by the House bill. But he vowed to preserve the pre-K funding. Mr. Manchin has said Democrats should select just one of the family policies, rather than including them all.
Joe Manchin Fights to Keep Subsidies for Fossil Fuel Industry - A PACKAGE OF legislation that represents a last chance to avoid severe climate crisis impacts was dramatically defanged late last week by conservative West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. Manchin, whose vote is key to any possibility of passing the already diminished $3.5 trillion reconciliation package into law, said he will not support its most meaningful climate provision. The Clean Electricity Performance Program would have sped up the transition to renewable energy from coal and natural gas by offering power utilities money to make the switch and charging them fines if they failed to do so. With the cornerstone of President Joe Biden’s climate policy all but dead, Democrats are pushing to get Manchin on board for a suite of tax credits that would incentivize renewables. Manchin has signaled that he’ll only sign on to wind and solar credits if Democrats chip away yet another key provision of Biden’s agenda: the elimination of fossil fuel industry subsidies. “The climate provisions of this package keep on shrinking.” Manchin’s proposed policies would effectively mean that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions won through incentivized renewable production could be canceled out by continued government-incentivized fossil fuel production. The fossil fuel industry subsidies on the table for elimination total $121 billion over the next decade. “The climate provisions of this package keep on shrinking,” said Lukas Ross, a program manager focused on the federal budget at the environmental advocacy group Friends of the Earth. “If subsidy repeal is no longer part of the discussion, a lot of progressives won’t feel compelled to help carry this over the finish line.” Progressive Democrats have signaled that the subsidy eliminations remain key. “Repealing these subsidies would finally establish a level playing field for renewable energy and go a long way towards tackling the climate crisis,” Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., told The Intercept. “It’s a top priority.”
Manchin, Sanders get heated behind closed doors on reconciliation bill - Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) squabbled behind closed doors Wednesday, with Manchin using a raised-fist goose egg to tell his colleague he can live without any of President Biden's social spending plan, Axios has learned. Why it matters: The disagreement, recounted to Axios by two senators in the room, underscores how far apart two key members remain as the Democratic Party tries to meet its deadline for reaching an agreement on a budget reconciliation framework by Friday. It also shows that despite the "kumbaya meeting" between Manchin and Sanders on Monday — after which they posed together for photos — the two remain sharply divided. Manchin's comfort level with zero as a final number — and his willingness to threaten Sanders with it publicly at Wednesday's lunch for Senate committee chairs — reveals a stark reality for Democratic negotiators: Manchin can control the final dollar amount. Spokespersons for both Manchin and Sanders declined comment. Driving the news: Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), chairman of a Senate Appropriations subcommittee, described the incident as "a difference in opinion." "Joe said, 'I'm comfortable with nothing,' Bernie said, 'We need to do three-and-a-half [trillion dollars].' The truth is both of them are in different spots." Manchin said, "I'm comfortable with zero," forming a "zero" with his thumb and index finger, Tester reiterated, saying he believes the West Virginia Democrat can live with himself if the Senate doesn't pass any of the president's $2 trillion to $3.5 trillion package. Another witness, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said, "There was a vigorous, 10-minute discussion. Bernie said, '$6 trillion.'" "[Manchin] said, 'We shouldn't do it at all,'" Coons recalled, himself making the goose-egg symbol as he recounted the conversation. He said Manchin continued, "This will contribute to inflation. We've already passed the American Rescue Plan. We should just pass the infrastructure bill and, you know, pause for six months." Overall, Coons said, there was "significant progress" in the meeting about identifying the core issues remaining. He said the parties also forged ahead with "figuring out which of our different committee chairs and caucus leaders have a role in getting those issues closed, and trying to get people to be to be direct." Coons is chairman of the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations. Between the lines: Despite the senators' private bickering, both Tester and Coons said they're hopeful Democrats will strike an agreement on a top-line figure for the package by the end of Thursday. Manchin isn't as optimistic. "This is not gonna happen anytime soon, guys," he said Thursday afternoon.
Manchin: Negotiators to miss Friday target for deal on reconciliation bill - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he does not believe negotiators will be able to meet a goal laid out earlier in the week by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to reach a deal on the framework of the budget reconciliation package by Friday. “This is not going to happen anytime soon, guys,” Manchin told reporters Thursday afternoon. Manchin, who doesn’t want to spend much more than the $1.5 trillion on the social spending package, said there’s still a massive amount of work to be done. “There’s a lot of work to do, everybody’s working hard, everybody’s communicating, working hard. A lot of meetings going on,” he said. Asked if the talks will drag past Friday, despite an effort by Schumer to get a framework deal wrapped up this week, Manchin said, “I believe so, yes.” He added that it will take longer than this week to reach a deal but stated, "I believe they’re making good progress.” “There’s a lot of details. Until you see the text and the fine print, it’s pretty hard to make final decisions, until you actually see,” he said, adding that he wants to make sure “the text matches the intent.” Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) seemed puzzled that some Democrats think getting a framework deal by Friday is even possible. “Where did you come up with tomorrow?” he asked. “It must be an aspiration.”
SCOOP: Manchin Tells Associates He’s Considering Leaving the Democratic Party and Has an Exit Plan -- In recent days, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party if President Joe Biden and Democrats on Capitol Hill do not agree to his demand to cut the size of the social infrastructure bill from $3.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion, according to people who have heard Manchin discuss this. Manchin has said that if this were to happen, he would declare himself an “American Independent.” And he has devised a detailed exit strategy for his departure. Manchin has been in the center of a wild rush of negotiations with his fellow Democrats and the White House over a possible compromise regarding Biden’s ambitious Build Back Better package, and Manchin’s opposition to key provisions—including Medicare and Medicaid expansion, an expanded child tax credit, and measures to address climate change—has been an obstacle that the Democrats have yet to overcome. As these talks have proceeded, Manchin has discussed bolting from the Democratic Party—perhaps to place pressure on Biden and Democrats in these negotiations. He told associates that he has a two-step plan for exiting the party. First, he would send a letter to Sen. Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, removing himself from the Democratic leadership of the Senate. (He is vice chair of the Senate Democrats’ policy and communications committee.) Manchin hopes that would send a signal. He would then wait and see if that move had any impact on the negotiations. After about a week, he said, he would change his voter registration from Democrat to independent. Manchin told associates that he was prepared to initiate his exit plan earlier this week and had mentioned the possibility to Biden. It is unclear whether in this scenario Manchin would end up caucusing with the Democrats, which would allow them to continue to control the Senate, or side with the Republicans and place the Senate in GOP hands. In either event, he would hold great sway over this half of Congress. Without Manchin’s vote, the Democrats cannot pass the package in the 50–50 Senate. And a vote on this measure is key to House passage of the $1 trillion bipartisan road-bridges-and-broadband infrastructure bill the Senate approved in August. (Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona Democrat, has also been a problem for the party.) Manchin has met with Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the chair of the Senate Budget Committee, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and a variety of his fellow Senate Democrats this week in an effort to strike a deal. Through it all, he has insisted that $1.75 trillion is his top and final offer, and he has constantly said no to proposed programs that almost every other congressional Democrat supports. He has told his fellow Democrats that if they don’t accept his position, they risk getting nothing.
Biden accepts shredding of his social welfare/climate bill - The social welfare legislation touted by Bernie Sanders, House “progressives” and their pseudo-left supporters as proof that major reforms could be enacted through the Democratic Party has turned into an object lesson on precisely the opposite. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden held a series of closed-door meetings with congressional Democrats in which he announced that the price tag for his “Build Back Better” budget bill would be cut from $3.5 trillion over 10 years to between $1.75 trillion and $1.9 trillion. Even this drastically reduced figure depends on the sufferance of the most right-wing, unabashed lackeys of big business in the Democratic Party, particularly Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona. Weeks ago, Manchin declared that he would support only $1.5 trillion over 10 years and has since reiterated his opposition to any climate control measures at odds with the profit interests of the fossil fuel industry, as well as demands that any social welfare programs be means tested and include work requirements. Manchin, a multi-millionaire coal company owner and recipient of millions in energy industry campaign donations, has been joined by Sinema, a former Green Party activist now lavishly funded by the finance industry. She has told lobbyists she opposes any increases in taxes on corporations or the wealthy and opposes the original bill’s provision for Medicare to negotiate reductions in drug prices with the pharmaceutical corporations. Big Pharma has mobilized 1,500 lobbyists and spent hundreds of millions of dollars to prevent Medicare from having the ability to negotiate drug prices. According to the most recent Federal Election Commission reports in the third quarter, Manchin and Sinema together raised more than $400,000 from lobbyists and others in the influence industry as well as corporate and trade group political action committees. This is despite the fact that neither is running for reelection in 2022. In all, Manchin raised nearly $1.6 million from July 1 to September 30, almost as much as he raised in the third quarter of 2018, when he was locked in a tight Senate race. This does not count the more than $200,000 raised by Manchin’s leadership PAC in July and August. Sinema raised $1.1 million, including more than $125,000 from corporate and trade group PACs, lobbyists and others in the influence industry. The gutted bill that Biden outlined on Tuesday, which Sanders and company are seeking to sell as “the most consequential piece of legislation for working people” since the New Deal, is far more Manchin’s legislation than Biden’s. The justification given by Biden, Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and their fake left allies in the Democratic Socialists of America and similar organizations for taking orders from Manchin and Sinema is the need to secure all 50 Democratic votes in the Senate to pass the budget bill in the evenly divided chamber, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote. The fact is, however, these politicians, and their right-wing counterparts in the House Democratic caucus, call the shots because they most directly express the ruthless policies of the corporate-financial elite. The real authors of the Democrats’ social agenda, assuming the entire plan does not collapse in the coming days and weeks, are the corporate oligarchs who control both parties of American capitalism. They have no intention of ceding voluntarily to the demands of working people for decent wages, working conditions and living standards in the midst of a pandemic that has already killed, officially, nearly 750,000 people in the US. Nor are they prepared to accept any significant expansion of social programs.
Two "Surprising Elements" In The Rapidly Changing Build Back Better Act --Media reports of yesterday’s White House meetings with centrist and progressive Democratic lawmakers suggest that progress is being made on whittling down the size of the Build Back Better Act (BBBA) from $3.5 trillion to around $2 trillion/10 years, in line with what Goldman predicted would end up being the final total. As expected, it appears that the discussions are focused primarily on reducing the number of years that some policies last, rather than omitting them from the package entirely, though both strategies appear to be in play. Indeed, most of the reported changes line up with the illustrative scenario for a $2 trillion package that we recently laid out citing Goldman forecasts.That said, this morning Goldman's political economic Alec Phillips notes that there are some surprising elements to what is being reported:
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A very short child tax credit extension: Discussions appear to be focused on a 1- or 2-year extension of the expanded child tax credit. This is surprising in light of the importance that progressives have placed on the provision. That said, would reduce the cost of the bill by $275-$400bn. The House-proposed BBBA would have extended it for 4 years, through 2025, lining up the expiration with the expiration of the 2017 personal tax cuts. Coming just after the 2024 election, it would have also potentially made further extension an issue in the next presidential election. A 1-2 year extension suggests that Democrats might instead be focused on making this more of an issue ahead of the midterm election, instead. It also raises the possibility that Democrats will propose a further extension next year in separate legislation once the reconciliation bill has been enacted.
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A (much?) lower amount of health spending: There are competing reports on the status of health spending in the talks. Bloomberg reports that discussions center on keeping total health spending in the bill to around $250bn. By the latest count, total spending in the current House-proposed version would be around $1 trillion over ten years. By contrast, CNN reports that the Medicaid expansion of home care benefits would be limited to $250bn. This would actually be an increase, as the House-proposed version includes $190bn for the new benefit (though advocates have said that the proposal might not work with less than $250bn). Goldman expects that neither report reflects what is likely to be in the final version of the bill, and that health spending is greater than $250bn overall but that the Medicaid home care portion is less than $250bn.
And while things may finally be moving again, keep an eye on Manchin: earlier today CNN reported that he won’t say if he’ll back $1.9T price tag, which is north of his number. “Everyone is throwing things back and forth. We’re considering everything and trying to find a pathway forward,” he said and didn’t want to weigh in on emerging deal... US Distillates inventories are at their lowest since April 2020 and Gasoline stocks at their lowest since Nov 2019.US Crude production dropped modestly last week and remains below pre-Ida levels... While crude output remains below pre-Ida levels, drilling activity continues to surge amid rising oil and gas prices. U.S. drillers have deployed an additional 46 rigs over the past six weeks, bringing the Baker Hughes rig count to 543 for the week ended Oct. 15. This should support production in the coming months. WTI traded down to a $80 handle briefly this morning but rallied up near $82 ahead of the official inventory data and extended gains on the across the board inventory draws..
What If Democrats Fail to Enhance the ACA? - As the extent to which Senators Manchin, Sinema, and other corporate Democrats will eviscerate the original outline of the Build Back Better bill sinks in, it’s time to consider the once-unthinkable: what if Democrats fail to extend the enhanced ACA marketplace subsidies enacted in the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) in March? And what if — which was always uncertain — they fail to plug the coverage gap in states that have refused to expand Medicaid? ARPA removed the income cap on eligibility for subsidies (formerly 400% of the Federal Poverty Level) and reduced the percentage of income required to pay for a benchmark silver plan at every income level. Under ARPA, benchmark silver coverage enhanced with strong Cost Sharing Reduction (CSR) is free at incomes up to 150% FPL and capped at 8.5% of income (with no CSR) at incomes over 400% FPL. High-CSR coverage is also free to anyone who received any unemployment insurance income in 2021. The enhanced subsidies turbo-charged a huge enrollment surge of 2.8 million during an emergency Special Enrollment Period running from February 15 – August 15 this year. Marketplace enrollment in August 2021 was 15% higher than in August 2020 and 22% higher than the previous August high, in 2016. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects making the ARPA subsidies permanent will further increase marketplace enrollment by 3.4 million. The Build Back Better bill would make the ARPA subsidy scale permanent, extend the unemployment benefit for four years, and provide free coverage to those in the ACA’s “coverage gap”: the failure to offer subsidized insurance of any kind to people with incomes below 100% FPL in the twelve states (including Florida and Texas) that have refused to enact the ACA Medicaid expansion (which the Supreme Court made optional for states in a 2012 decision). BBB would first offer free marketplace coverage to people in the gap, and then, beginning in 2025, stand up a federal Medicaid-like program to cover them. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that extending the ARPA subsidy scale would cost $209 billion over 10 years; extending the unemployment benefit for four years would cost $10 billion; and closing the coverage gap would cost $323 billion. That’s a lot of money, and Democrats are currently struggling to halve the $3.5 trillion in planned spending over 10 years outlined in the BBB framework. Closing the coverage gap is a huge moral imperative for Democrats. It’s also very expensive. As for the ARPA subsidy enhancements: they brought the ACA marketplace much closer to providing the “affordable” coverage promised in the ACA’s name. But the marketplace was at least minimally functional (and stable) pre-ARPA, and Democrats have to carve a lot of pounds of flesh out of their original plans. In recent online chat, friends and I speculated that Democrats almost have to preserve ARPA’s extension of ACA premium subsidies beyond the former 400% FPL income ceiling. That helps wealthier people, but it would seem to be a political imperative. Besides the sub-100% FPL coverage gap, the enormous individual market premiums to which people with incomes above 400% FPL were subject was the ACA’s most egregious flaw, and those high premiums were Republicans’ most effective bludgeon in their demonization of the law. Almost two thirds of the coverage gains anticipated by CBO if ARPA subsidies are extended would be among people with incomes above 200% FPL. As for the rest of the ARPA enhancements . . . there’s going to be a lot of pain in BBB cuts, possibly including here. Suppose, bleakly, that Democrats do shrink legislative enhancement of the ACA to killing the “subsidy cliff” (capping benchmark silver premiums as a percentage of income at all income levels) and nothing more — no subsidy boosts at lower income levels, no program for those in the coverage gap. The Biden administration, if willing to act aggressively, could mitigate some of damage, taking various measures to reduce uninsurance and underinsurance. They very likely won’t, but they could. Below are three measures that would have substantial impact.
The Pitfalls of Cost Sharing in Healthcare - The Incidental Economist - (video w/ Dr Aaron Carroll) Cost-sharing is the practice of making individuals responsible for part of their health insurance costs beyond the monthly premiums they pay for health insurance – think things like deductibles and copayments. The practice is meant to inspire more thoughtful choices among consumers when it comes to healthcare decisions. However, the choices it inspires can often be more harmful than good. This video was adapted from a column Aaron wrote for the Upshot. Links to sources can be found there.
Top Dem Senator Reveals Third Attempt to Nest Amnesty for Millions of Illegal Immigrants in Reconciliation Bill --On Wednesday Democratic senator Bob Menendez revealed the third proposal under his party’s consideration to nest amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants in the budget reconciliation bill pending in the chamber after earlier attempts failed. Democrats have tried a few angles to incorporate an amnesty provision into the reconciliation package, the first two of which Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough rejected. She denied the first proposal to provide a pathway to citizenship for certain groups of illegal aliens, arguing that it is a “tremendous and enduring policy change that dwarfs its budgetary impact.” MacDonough also dismissed the second plan, which involved modifying an immigration registry that outlines a process for immigrants who have resided in the U.S. since before January 1, 1972, to apply for a green card. Democrats asked to change the immigration registry date to 2010, to make a total of 6.7 million people eligible for permanent residency. Menendez told Axios on Wednesday that the Democrats have moved on to “Plan C,” which would expand temporary legal status and work permits. “We haven’t finalized it yet as we speak, but ‘Plan C’ would probably be a parole option that would give about 8 million of the 11 million undocumented immigrants who meet certain requirements the ability to work lawfully, to have a status that would last five years and would be renewable for another five years, that would protect them from deportation, that would allow them to travel domestically and internationally . . . that could also potentially gain access to healthcare coverage,” the senator said. “I hope she will find her way to say yes this time, but we will not accept no as an answer at the end of the day,” he added. Progressive Democrats are using the reconciliation process, which evades a Senate filibuster and can pass legislation with just a simple majority of 50 votes, to embed a number of their priorities into the budget plan, including amnesty, climate change, child care, health care, education, etc. Menendez said that the reconciliation avenue is “the only pathway for some broad-based pathway toward some type of status for undocumented immigrants in the country.” “And without reconciliation and without Republican support in an evenly divided Senate, I don’t see how that pathway would be possible,” he told Axios. “That’s why we’re putting so much effort into this.”
Mayorkas tests positive for COVID-19 breakthrough case - Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas tested positive for a COVID-19 breakthrough case on Tuesday, according to a statement from a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spokeswoman. Mayorkas was tested for the virus as part of routine pre-travel protocols, according to the statement from Marsha Espinosa, assistant secretary of public affairs at DHS. He had been preparing to travel to Colombia with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, according to CNN, which first reported the news. Mayorkas is experiencing mild congestion and will continue to work from home. Espinosa said the department is currently conducting contact tracing. “Secretary Mayorkas tested positive this morning for the COVID-19 virus after taking a test as part of routine pre-travel protocols. Secretary Mayorkas is experiencing only mild congestion; he is fully vaccinated and will isolate and work at home per CDC protocols and medical advice. Contact tracing is underway,” Espinosa said in a statement.
Officials Double Down on “Let ‘Er Rip” Strategy, Placing Undue Faith in Vaccines as Regions With High Vaccinations Suffer Infection Spikes -- Yves Smith - Again and again, all over the world, we’ve seen public health officials all too willing to relax Covid restrictions too early, resulting in an eventual spike in infections and hospitalizations. As we’ll explain, regulators are repeating the same experiment and expecting different outcomes, The classic example was the May CDC “Mission Accomplished” policy change of telling the fully vaccinated they could go about unmasked, even as Delta had become the dominant strain, had viral loads 1000x that of the wild type, and not surprisingly also had a much higher unmitigated R0. Yet at the same time, the CDC also told state and local authorities to not report cases among the vaccinated ex hospitalizations. The CDC backpedaled on both policies thanks to the summer surge. But considerable damage was done thanks to many of the middle and upper middle class vaccinated still seeing non-mask wearing as a perverse declaration of virtue, that they are doing so to show they are shot up, disregarding the new CDC guidance for the vaccinated to mask up indoors. Damien Contandriopoulo in The Year Public Health Lost Its Soul explained how we got here: Most jurisdictions in Western countries adopted “balanced-containment” strategies regarding COVID. This approach is characterized by the ambition to balance, on the one hand, the number of coronavirus infections, hospitalizations and deaths and, on the other hand, the economic and social disruptions caused by strict infection control measures such as lockdowns… Economic actors impacted by lockdowns and infection control measures successfully convinced many governments to slowly push the balance of the containment strategies toward looser infection control measures and the acceptance of higher infection rates. In the meantime – and unsurprisingly – the balanced-containment strategies were also shown to be deeply inequitable. Both the incidence and relative risk of death from COVID were highly correlated with income, social status and racialized status… GM has repeatedly pointed out that trying to manage Covid simply to keep it from overwhelming hospitals was tantamount to accepting large-scale deaths and morbidity, particularly since virtually no one is thinking about the likely scenario that Covid will be with us for decades, and even properly vaccinated individuals statistically will get infected multiple times. His less forgiving assessment of the official response: As I have noted several times before, what is happening right now is due to the fundamental political economic conflict that dealing with the pandemic requires setting extremely dangerous precedents threatening the foundations of the current order — paying people not to work and canceling debts, none of which can be allowed to even be contemplated. So mass death it is instead. But a big reason why the medical establishment has gone along with the current plan is that properly dealing with the pandemic also threatened the foundations of the current order in healthcare (we will never know how many people exactly died because someone infected with COVID decided not to seek care out of fear of the hospital bills; as an aside, I also see very few stories about COVID hospital bills in the media, which makes one wonder whether that is a taboo topic), and also that properly dealing with it never fit within the philosophical framework of the system. It isn’t just cold calculation — people have been brought up in this environment, it has fundamentally shaped their thinking, and the Hippocratic Oath (which explicitly talks about prevention being the prime objective) is just something they gave as an obligation. When your view healthcare as a service and part of a transaction, it is natural to manage up to hospital capacity, even though that should be an absolutely abhorrent idea if healthCARE was the objective.
Catholic Troops Can Refuse COVID Vaccine, Archbishop Declares -Catholic U.S. troops should be allowed to refuse the COVID-19 vaccine based solely on conscientious objection and regardless of whether abortion-related tissue was used in its creation or testing, the archbishop for the military declared in a new statement supporting service members who are seeking religious exemptions. “No one should be forced to receive a COVID-19 vaccine if it would violate the sanctity of his or her conscience,” said Archbishop for the Military Services Timothy P. Broglio, in a statement released Tuesday.Broglio previously has supported President Joe Biden’s mandatory vaccination order for U.S. troops, citing the church’s guidance that permits Catholics to receive even vaccines derived from fetal tissue, when no other vaccine option is available. In his new statement, the archbishop said that while he still encourages followers and troops to get vaccinated, some troops have questioned if the church’s permission to get vaccinated outweighed their own conscious objections to it.“It does not,” Broglio wrote. The Archdiocese for the Military Services, created by the church in 1985, claims responsibility for 1.8 million service members and their families at 220 installations. Broglio was appointed by Pope Benedict XVI in 2007. In August, Broglio was quoted by Catholic News Agency, a publication of Eternal Word Television Network, supporting the Pentagon’s then-forthcoming vaccine mandates, saying the church, including Pope Francis, “had recognized the morality of the vaccine.” But, the article added, “The archbishop said that while a person could object from the mandatory vaccine due to their personal conscience, ‘even that should be formed by the teaching of the Church.’” Broglio’s Tuesday letter appears to formalize that exemption. It begins with an explanation of how the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines that were tested using an “abortion-derived cell line” are still not considered sinful by the Catholic church because it is “remote material cooperation with evil.” “The Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith examined these moral concerns and judged that receiving these vaccines ‘does not constitute formal cooperation with the abortion,’ and is therefore not sinful,” Broglio’s letter reads.
If TSA agents won't get jabbed, why not re-examine the whole show? - Heading home for the holidays? Prepare for massive security delays, thanks to a coming shortage of TSA agents.Only 40 percent of Transportation Security Administration workers are vaccinated, ahead of the looming deadline for all federal workers to be vaccinated — Nov. 22, just three days before Thanksgiving.“This is shaping up to be a miserable Thanksgiving holiday . . . for airline passengers,” industry analyst Henry Harteveldt warned The Post. “Prepare for doomsday and be pleasantly surprised if it’s better than that.”With most COVID restrictions ended, 52 percent of Americans plan to travel over Turkey Day, up from the normal 33 percent, according to a recent survey by Price Waterhouse Coopers. And 40 percent of travelers intend to fly.Fine, the TSA is looking at a contingency plan, with managers filling unvaccinated agents’ shifts, but that’s plainly not enough to replace up to 60 percent of the frontline workforce.Sen. Chuck Schumer suggests solving the issue with dogs. Right.After two decades of America taking off its shoes and getting felt up; after endless tests wherein agents fail to spot knives and explosives; after (per the Government Accountability Office) at least 16 people involved in terrorist plots have flown dozens of US flights with the TSA stopping not a one . . . How about a re-examination of the whole TSA dog-and-pony show? Israel does the same job far differently, and faster — by focusing on suspicious passengers and behavior. It’s long past time for America to rethink this security theater.
On Covid-19 booster shots, the FDA has overstepped its role – STAT -Booster shots for all adults six months after being vaccinated against Covid-19 are safe, effective, and badly needed. The United Kingdom and the European Unionhave authorized them for all adults. Israel won’t let anyone enter the country without one.In the U.S., however, the FDA authorized a booster dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine only for individuals over age 65, those who face elevated risk due to their health conditions, or who work in jobs that put them at higher risk of infection. In imposing these limits, the FDA overstepped its role for vaccine approvals. The FDA fully approved the Pfizer vaccine — granting it a biologics license application — in August. The FDA’s role in approving the Pfizer Covid-19 booster is to review safety and efficacy. Its job does not include balancing “public” costs against benefits, nor deciding who gets priority to receive vaccines. Congress assigned the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as the lead agency for public health policy for infectious diseases with input from the National Institutes of Health. The safety of the Pfizer Covid-19 booster is similar to the first two doses. Millions of booster shots have been delivered, in the U.S. and elsewhere. There is no increased risk for myocarditis (an inflammation of the heart muscle that is the most important side effect)with a third dose versus a second, and that risk is meaningful only for young men. Even for them, however, the risk is very low and vastly outweighed by the risks of Covid-19 infection. The FDA recognized this safety profile when it authorized booster shots for those in “at risk” groups. The evidence for effectiveness is still emerging, but what is known today is ample. Results from Israel indicate that a booster dose greatly lowers the risk of severe illness. Boosters also prevent infection. This reduces the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. It isn’t yet clear how long protection from boosters will last, but the world can’t wait to find out. The waning effectiveness seen in multiple studies in Israel,in the U.S., and elsewhere implies that serious illness and death among recipients of the Pfizer vaccine will increase without boosters. The evidence that booster shots are needed is overwhelming. Israel provides the best data because it vaccinated its populace with the Pfizer vaccine early and has excellent population data. Six months after vaccination, the country saw sharply lower protectionagainst infection. A major booster campaign turned the tide against a surge in infections, hospitalization, and death due to the highly infectious Delta variant. The risk of Covid-19-related hospitalization, which was near zero soon after vaccination, has also risen sharply — up tenfold since early this year. The roughly 98% protection found early on is now down to 77% in one recent study, and low- to mid-80s in others.The FDA, in judging who most needs a booster, is arrogating powers it does not have. If approval for those over 65 is a “no-brainer,” as the FDA’s top vaccine official, Peter Marks stated, and reduces the Covid-19 risk for them and health care workers, so too for everyone else. Safety is the same. Efficacy is the same. Younger people face lower absolute risk from Covid-19 but deciding on vaccine priority is not the FDA’s role.
NIH Bat Coronavirus Grant Report Was Submitted More Than Two Years Late -The unusual timing of a bat coronavirus grant report suggests that an earlier version may have been revised. A PROGRESS REPORT detailing controversial U.S.-funded research into bat coronaviruses in China was filed more than two years after it was due and long after the corresponding grant had concluded. The U.S.-based nonprofit the EcoHealth Alliance submitted the report to its funder, the National Institutes of Health, in September 2020, while the group was engulfed in controversy surrounding its work with partners in China. The Intercept obtained the report, along with the grant proposal and other documents, through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.Scientists consulted by The Intercept described the late date as highly unusual and said it merited an explanation, given the controversy surrounding the EcoHealth Alliance’s work at the time that the report was submitted. The scientists spoke under the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic with the NIH, the world’s leading funder of biomedical research.The annual report described the group’s work from June 2017 to May 2018, which involved creating new viruses using different parts of existing bat coronaviruses and inserting them into humanized mice in a lab in Wuhan, China. The work was overseen by the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is headed by Anthony Fauci.Neither the NIH nor the EcoHealth Alliance offered an explanation for the date of the report or responded to questions from The Intercept about whether another version of the report had been submitted on time and, if so, in what ways that version may have been altered. The Intercept is seeking any missing progress reports, among other documents, through ongoing litigation against the NIH.
Turkey to expel US envoy and nine others, Erdogan says - (Reuters) -Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that he had told his foreign ministry to expel the ambassadors of the United States and nine other Western countries for demanding the release of philanthropist Osman Kavala. Seven of the ambassadors represent Turkey's NATO allies and the expulsions, if carried out, would open the deepest rift with the West in Erdogan's 19 years in power. Kavala, a contributor to numerous civil society groups, has been in prison for four years, charged with financing nationwide protests in 2013 and with involvement in a failed coup in 2016. He has remained in detention while his latest trial continues, and denies the charges. In a joint statement on Oct. 18, the ambassadors of Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Finland, New Zealand and the United States called for a just and speedy resolution to Kavala's case, and for his "urgent release". They were summoned by the foreign ministry, which called the statement irresponsible. "I gave the necessary order to our foreign minister and said what must be done: These 10 ambassadors must be declared persona non grata (undesirable) at once. You will sort it out immediately," Erdogan said in a speech in the northwestern city of Eskisehir. "They will know and understand Turkey. The day they do not know and understand Turkey, they will leave," he said to cheers from the crowd. The U.S., and French embassies and the White House and U.S. State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Erdogan has said previously that he plans to meet U.S. President Joe Biden at summit of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies in Rome next weekend. Norway said its embassy had not received any notification from Turkish authorities. "Our ambassador has not done anything that warrants an expulsion," said the ministry's chief spokesperson, Trude Maaseide, adding that Turkey was well aware of Norway's views.
Republicans block vote on Democratic voting reform bill - Senate Republicans blocked a vote on the Democratic Party-sponsored “Freedom to Vote Act” on Wednesday. The motion to move the bill to a floor debate was defeated by a margin of 51 to 49, with Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer voting “no,” a maneuver designed to allow the bill to be brought back for a vote later this year. As expected, no Republicans voted for the measure, which required 60 votes to end the filibuster. The defeat of the “Freedom to Vote Act” marks the third time congressional Democrats have failed to pass a voting rights reform bill this year. The bill was doomed to fail. Senate Republicans have remained resolute in blocking a vote on all Democratic voting bills. This Republican resistance in Congress comes at the same time that Republican-controlled state legislatures around the country are passing laws making it more difficult for Americans to vote, and in some cases strengthening the authority of the state government to impose partisan control over local voting procedures. The latest legislative defeat is a striking exposure of the political bankruptcy of the Democratic Party. Faced with the biggest assault on voting rights since Jim Crow, the Democrats have refused to mount any serious attempt to defend the most basic of democratic rights. The “Freedom to Vote Act” itself is a pared-back version of the “For the People Act,” the Democrats’ more expansive voting reform bill, which was defeated twice over the summer. Senate Democrats and the Biden administration have made no serious effort to amend or eliminate the filibuster, thereby allowing the Democrats to pass legislation to protect the right to vote by a simple majority. As on virtually all policy issues, they have bowed to right-wing Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who vehemently defends the filibuster. In fact, Manchin is carrying out in full the logic of the endless appeals of Biden and the Democratic leadership for “unity” and “bipartisanship” with their Republican “colleagues,” the vast majority of whom continue to support Donald Trump, promote the lie of a “stolen election” and oppose any investigation of the attempted coup of January 6. The feckless and duplicitous stance of the Democratic Party has only encouraged the Republicans to intensify their attack on voting rights at the state and local level. At the same time, the Democratic leadership has capitulated to the demands of Manchin that any voting rights bill be designed to appeal to Republican lawmakers. The resulting “Freedom to Vote Act” removed many provisions that were included in the earlier bill regarding campaign finance and electoral redistricting. It also caved in to the Republicans on the enactment of state voter ID measures, which are designed to block working-class and minority voters from going to the polls. Despite Manchin’s claims that he could win 10 Republican votes for the “Freedom to Vote Act,” not a single Republican voted to end the filibuster and bring the measure up for a floor vote.
Rep. Jordan rips into Merrick Garland for feds’ ‘snitch line’ on parents -- Rep. Jim Jordan ripped into the Department of Justice and Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday, accusing him of creating a “snitch line on parents” with a controversial memo directing the FBI to investigate parent protests against local schools. “Mr. Chairman, the chairman just said the Trump DOJ was political, went after their opponents. Are you kidding me?” Jordan (R-Ohio), the House Judiciary Committee’s ranking member, opened, referring to opening comments from the committee’s chairman, Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY). “Three weeks ago, the National School Board Association writes President Biden asking him to involve the FBI in local school board matters. Five days later, the attorney general of the United States does just that — does exactly what a political organization asked to be done. Five days,” Jordan emphasized. “Republicans on this committee have sent the attorney general 13 letters in the last six months,” Jordan said. “Eight of the letters, we’ve got nothing — they just gave us the finger. “Folks all around the country, they tell me, for the first time they are afraid of their government. “Where’s the dedicated lines of communication on violent crime in our cities — violent crime, that is, went up in every major urban area where Democrats have defunded the police out. Can’t do that, can’t do that. The Justice Department’s gonna go after parents who object to some racist hate America curriculum,” Jordan said. “Nope, can’t focus on the southern border, where 1.7 million illegal encounters have happened this year alone, a record … but the Department of Justice, they’re going to open up a snitch line on parents.” Democrats brought Garland before the Judiciary Committee to defend the Department of Justice’s investigation into the Jan. 6 riot.
43 members of Congress have violated a law designed to stop insider trading and prevent conflicts-of-interest - Insider and several other news organizations have this year identified 43 members of Congress who've failed to properly report their financial trades as mandated by the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act of 2012, also known as the STOCK Act. Congress passed the law in 2012 to combat insider trading and conflicts of interest among their own members and force lawmakers to be more transparent about their personal financial dealings. A key provision of the law mandates that lawmakers publicly — and quickly — disclose any stock trade made by themselves, a spouse, or a dependent child. But many members of Congress have not fully complied with the law. They offer excuses including ignorance of the law, clerical errors, and mistakes by an accountant. While lawmakers who violate the STOCK Act face a fine, the penalty is usually small — $200 is the standard amount — or waived by House or Senate ethics officials. Ethics watchdogs and even some members of Congress have called for stricter penalties or even a ban on federal lawmakers from trading individual stocks, although neither has come to pass. Here are the lawmakers who have this year violated the STOCK Act — to one extent or another — during 2021:
House Select Committee on January 6 coup attempt votes to hold Stephen Bannon in criminal contempt - In a unanimous vote Tuesday evening, the House Select Committee investigating former President Donald Trump’s January 6 coup attempt voted to refer former Trump White House Special Advisor Stephen Bannon to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for prosecution for defying a congressional subpoena from the committee. “We believe Mr. Bannon has information relevant to our probe, and we’ll use the tools at our disposal to get that information,” said Chairman Bennie Thompson (Democrat from Mississippi). Thompson added that while Bannon is “willing to be a martyr to the disgraceful cause of whitewashing what happened on January 6,” the committee “won’t be deterred. We won’t be distracted. And we won’t be delayed.” Bannon has thus far refused to provide any documentation or appear before the committee. Through his lawyer, Robert Costello, Bannon has claimed that Trump is invoking “executive privilege” on any communications or documents sought by the committee, preventing him from cooperating with its investigation. In her remarks Tuesday night, the vice chair of the committee, Wyoming Republican Liz Cheney, reviewed Bannon’s “substantial advance knowledge of the plans for January 6.” She said Bannon “likely had an important role in formulating those plans.” While Thompson failed even to utter the name of the former president, it was left to the right-wing war hawk and daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney to point to the direct collaboration between Bannon and Trump in the lead-up to the attack on the U.S. Capitol. “Mr. Bannon was in the war room at the Willard [Hotel] on January 6,” said Cheney. “He also appears to have detailed knowledge regarding the president’s efforts to sell millions of Americans the fraud that the election was stolen. In the words of many who participated in the January 6 attack, the violence that day was in direct response to President Trump’s repeated claims—from election night through January 6—that he had won the election.” Commenting on Bannon’s and Trump’s attempts to invoke “executive privilege” to prevent Bannon from testifying, Cheney said, “Mr. Bannon’s and Mr. Trump’s privilege arguments do appear to reveal one thing, however: They suggest that President Trump was personally involved in the planning and execution of January 6. And we will get to the bottom of that.”
US billionaire wealth increased 70 percent since the start of the pandemic - The wealth of US billionaires has increased by a massive $2.1 trillion, or 70 percent, since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, while tens of millions of working people have faced unemployment and illness, and 724,000 have died from COVID-19. Additionally, the list of American billionaires grew by 131 individuals—going from 614 to 745—during the same period. According to an analysis of Forbes data about US billionaires by Americans for Tax Fairness (ATF) and the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) Program on Inequality, the wealth of the richest people in the country increased from “just short of $3 trillion at the start of the COVID crisis on March 18, 2020, to over $5 trillion on October 15 of this year,” and this wealth is “two-thirds more than the $3 trillion in wealth held by the bottom 50 percent of U.S. households estimated by the Federal Reserve Board.” In an accompanying press release, the ATF and IPS state that the “great good fortune of these billionaires over the past 19 months” is in stark contrast with the “89 million Americans [who] have lost jobs, over 44.9 million [who] have been sickened by the virus” and the nearly three-quarters of a million who have died from it. The billionaire who increased his wealth the most is Elon Musk. The wealth of the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX grew by an incredible 751 percent during the pandemic, from $24.6 billion to $209.4 billion. Musk became the wealthiest individual in the country, beating out Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, who went from $113 billion to $192 billion, or a 70 percent increase over the 19-month period. Other top billionaires who increased their wealth significantly during the pandemic include the founders of Google (now Alphabet, Inc.) Larry Page and Sergey Brin, who saw their fortunes rise by 137.2 percent to $120.7 billion and 136.9 percent to $116.2 billion, respectively. Phil Knight, founder and chairman emeritus of Nike, Inc., nearly doubled his wealth since March 2020 from $29.5 billion to $57.9 billion. A further analysis of the Forbes data shows that 12 percent of US billionaires are women, including Alice Walton of the Walmart empire with a personal fortune of $64.5 billion, up from $54.4 billion, and MacKenzie Scott, the former wife of Jeff Bezos, who increased her wealth by 54 percent this year from $36 billion to $55.5 billion. There are five billionaires in their twenties, including Sam Bankman, the 29-year-old CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, who was not previously on the Forbes list until this year, when he amassed $22.5 billion. California has the largest number of billionaires in the US with 196. There are 182 billionaires in the finance and investment business and 142 in the technology industries. The next highest number is in the fashion and retail sector with 52 billionaires, with the Walton family members and Phil Knight at the top of the list, followed by Leonard Lauder (Estee Lauder), John Menard, Jr. (Menards) and Hank and Doug Meijer (Meijer), each with more than $10 billion in their fortunes.
Treasury narrows IRS reporting plan. Banks and GOP are unmoved. -- Democrats launched an attempt Tuesday to strike a compromise over a highly contentious bank reporting measure, but critics of the plan do not appear to be giving an inch. The Treasury Department and Democratic senators officially announced a modified proposal to require banks to submit customer account flow information to the Internal Revenue Service. The plan is seen as a way to catch tax evaders and raise revenue for President Biden's Build Back Better agenda. The revisions include raising the reporting threshold to $10,000 in annual account flows from $600, and exempting wages and federal benefits such as Social Security from the calculation of the threshold, according to a Treasury fact sheet.
Banks' fight against IRS reporting may hinge on centrist Democrats - — As Democrats try to advance a proposal to enlist banks in a crackdown on tax evaders, the party’s centrists could play a pivotal role in determining the plan’s fate. But where moderates will come down on the measure is still somewhat of a mystery. The proposal requiring banks to report account inflow and outflow information on their customers to the Internal Revenue Service is meant to raise tax revenue to help pay for President Biden's $3.5 trillion social policy package.
The Wall Street Journal and New York Times Censor Yet Another Major News Story on the Fed and the Mega Banks It Supervises --Pam Martens -On October 13, Wall Street On Parade broke the story that the Federal Reserve had quietly released the names of the mega banks that had grabbed tens of billions of dollars of repo loans under the Fed’s emergency repo loan operations that began on September 17, 2019 – months before there was a COVID-19 case in the United States or anywhere else in the world.Repos (repurchase agreements) are a short-term form of borrowing where corporations, banks, securities firms and money market mutual funds secure loans from each other by providing safe forms of collateral such as Treasury securities. Repos are supposed to function without the assistance of the Federal Reserve. But on September 17, 2019, the oversized demand for the repos and the lack of available funds to meet the demand drove the overnight interest rate on repo loans to an unprecedented 10 percent at one point. Typically, the overnight repo rate trades in line with the Federal Funds rate, which was at that time targeted at 2 to 2.25 percent by the Fed.The newly released data from the Fed showed that three of the largest borrowers during the repo crisis of September 2019 were the trading units of Nomura (a Japanese firm), Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. The Fed had been heavily criticized after a government audit of its secret loans during the 2008 financial crisis revealed that tens of billions of dollars went to foreign banks. Why was a Japanese firm at the top of the list this time around? Why were U.S. mega banks Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan on the list at all? Fed Chair Jerome Powell had consistently testified to Congress that these banks, which the Fed supervises, were well capitalized and a “source of strength” heading into the pandemic.There had been major speculation by corporate media in the fall of 2019 when the Fed launched these emergency repo loans as to which financial institutions might be in trouble. One would have thought that the same corporate media would have been anxious to learn the names of the banks that borrowed and share the breaking news with their readers. Imagine our surprise when the story was censored by every major business media outlet.On Friday, we emailed the business editors of the Wall Street Journal and New York Times, asking why they would fail to publish such an important story. We gave them more than 48 hours to respond. There was no response. This latest censorship is part of a pattern. Just yesterday, the fearless Robert Kuttner atAmerican Prospect broke the story that Fed Chair “Jerome Powell Sold More Than a Million Dollars of Stock as the Market Was Tanking.” While other media outlets likeYahoo! Finance, Fox Business, the Daily Beast, and Seeking Alpha headlined the story from American Prospect, the Wall Street Journal mentioned the breaking news in the 15th paragraph of a story that carried a headline about Senator Elizabeth Warren and the Fed. The New York Times didn’t run the breaking news at all.
Regulators offer more clarity on Libor transition as deadline nears -— The federal banking agencies in coordination with state regulators released guidance Wednesday that offers a clearer picture of how they will supervise the use of new benchmarks in place of the London interbank offered rate. In an interagency statement, the regulators said banks must conduct the "due diligence necessary" to ensure that whichever benchmark they choose to replace Libor is appropriate for their firm’s risk profile and products. Although the Alternative Reference Rates Committee — a U.S. group of market participants convened by the Federal Reserve — recommended the Secured Overnight Financing Rate to replace Libor, the banking agencies have said firms are free to choose a substitute benchmark that meets their needs.
Modernize regulation or risk an '80s-style economic crisis | American Banker - The post office’s recent announcement that it was entering the banking business is a stark reminder of how we seem to have forgotten the causes of the second worst economic decade in the country’s history — the 1980s. Forty years later, we are about to recreate the events that caused it.In the 1980s and early 1990s, about 3,000 federally insured financial institutions failed; 1,600 of them were banks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had nearly tripled, short-term interest rates topped 12%, inflation hit double digits, and the price of oil collapsed from a high of $111 to $26 a barrel. But perhaps most disruptive was the shifting ground under bankers’ feet created by competition from the increasing popularity of mutual and money market funds.Those funds attracted huge amounts of what otherwise would have been insured bank deposits. That was because money market funds were not banks and were not subject to Regulation Q, which limited banks and savings institutions to paying 5.5% on deposits. Consumers naturally flocked to an instrument that was able to pay 12% or more. As a result, the money market fund industry doubled in size in those years, growing from $66 billion to $122 billion, causing massive disintermediation and liquidity crises at banks at a time when the economy was already quite challenging.At the same time, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Treasury Department and state regulators bickered over brokered deposits, the regulation of funds, bank capital, the chartering of new banks and when and how to close failing institutions. Some of those intramural disputes actually ended up in court, causing further uncertainty in financial markets. It feels like we are approaching a similar inflection point of competitive chaos. As William M. Isaac, former chairman of the FDIC, and I explained in our American Banker article on July 14, 2021, there is already a substantial economic bubble being driven by government largesse, low interest rates, a ballooning Fed balance sheet, excess liquidity and increasing leverage. And the competitive landscape is also shifting again, threatening to pop that bubble.The role of money market funds today is being played by technology companies. Armed with great new financial ideas, products and delivery channels, fintechs are rapidly realigning the competitive dynamics in financial markets. Most of these new players are not prudentially regulated and naturally want to avoid such oversight while enjoying the benefits of operating in the financial services market. But crypto companies are now testing their ability to function as payment mechanisms, accept what banks would call deposits and make loans. Crypto exchanges are acquiring trust charters and a range of fintech companies are seeking to acquire bank charters. If that is to the benefit of consumers, that process is a good one. Yet, more than a decade into this experiment, neither Congress nor the regulators have come to a consensus about whether or how they should be regulated.And then there is the government itself trying to compete with banks. The Federal Reserve is evaluating the benefits of issuing a central bank digital currency, a product that by the Fed's own admission is fraught with security challenges and could significantly dislodge banks from their roles as financial intermediaries.Finally, the post office has just begun to offer paycheck-cashing services at several East Coast locations. In short, the government, or in this case, an entity underwritten by the government, wants to be a low-cost payday lender. This is ironic on many levels, but particularly given the post office’s financial history and recent performance relative to the need in the banking business for stability and durability.
Biden Nominee For Top Banking Regulator Facing Growing Resistance In Senate --Unsurprisingly, some influential Senate Democrats are getting cold feet about the prospect of President Biden nominating Saule Omarova to lead the OCC. The Cornell law professor educated in the USSR who has proposed that the Fed take over most retail banking activities from the private sector (which a Fedcoin - or ZuckCoin - just might help it to do) while wholeheartedly supporting the progressives' "Green New Deal" agenda.This has, understandably, made many in both Congress, and the industry she is about to regulate, uncomfortable. As we have reported, Omarova has previously favorably compared the USSR to the US - at least when it comes to the "gender pay gap"."Until I came to the US, I couldn’t imagine that things like gender pay gap still existed in today’s world. Say what you will about old USSR, there was no gender pay gap there. Market doesn’t always ‘know best,’" Omarova tweeted in 2019, adding (after receiving harsh criticism) "I never claimed women and men were treated absolutely equally in every facet of Soviet life. But people’s salaries were set (by the state) in a gender-blind manner. And all women got very generous maternity benefits. Both things are still a pipe dream in our society!"Additionally, as the Wall Street Journal editorial board notes, "Ms. Omarova thinks asset prices, pay scales, capital and credit should be dictated by the federal government. In two papers, she has advocated expanding the Federal Reserve’s mandate to include the price levels of “systemically important financial assets” as well as worker wages. As they like to say at the modern university, from each according to her ability to each according to her needs."In a recent paper “The People’s Ledger,” she proposed that the Federal Reserve take over consumer bank deposits, “effectively ‘end banking,’ as we know it,” and become “the ultimate public platform for generating, modulating, and allocating financial resources in a modern economy.” She’d also like the U.S. to create a central bank digital currency—as Venezuela and China are doing—to “redesign our financial system & turn Fed’s balance sheet into a true ‘People’s Ledger,’” she tweeted this summer. What could possibly go wrong? –WSJ
How climate risk is already creeping into banking policy -— How the Biden administration’s focus on climate risk will affect regulators’ oversight of the U.S. financial system is, slowly but surely, coming into view. In May, the administration directed federal agencies to paint a picture of the country’s economic vulnerabilities related to climate change and craft policies to address them. The goal was to mitigate risks to homeowners, consumers, businesses and workers, the financial system, and the federal government. Just last week, the White House issued a fact sheet detailing six core pillars of its approach to combating climate risk. Those pillars include boosting the financial system’s resilience, protecting citizens’ savings and pensions, making the government’s procurement practices greener, incorporating climate risk in underwriting of government-backed mortgages, and building more resilient infrastructure. The administration’s directives have mobilized agencies to act, but in some cases Biden-appointed regulators were already moving aggressively to address climate-related risks. Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Board Gov. Lael Brainard said the central bank will subject financial institutions to “scenario analysis” of their climate-related risks, a process that the Fed says is distinct from traditional stress tests. In July, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced the appointment of Darrin Benhart as the agency’s Climate Change Risk Officer, and said the OCC was joining the international Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. An upcoming report by the Financial Stability Oversight Council may put more flesh on the bone about how regulators will view climate risks in bank supervision. Meanwhile, some agencies have already moved ahead more aggressively. For example, the Securities and Exchange Commission is working on a rule to require publicly traded companies to issue disclosures about their impact on and risks from climate change. Many bankers, including those at many of the country’s largest institutions, have acknowledged the looming business risks from extreme weather events, a societal transition to cleaner energy sources and other consequences of a rapidly heating planet. At the same time, many financiers remain leery of climate regulations that could burden them with significant new disclosure requirements, tie their hands when lending to certain industries or even increase capital requirements. It is certain that the Biden administration will remain on a path to try to blunt the impact of climate change on the U.S. economy. What follows is a breakdown of the biggest anticipated policy moves on the horizon for banks and other financial institutions.
Facebook's digital wallet raises privacy concerns - Facebook's Novi wallet is taking its first steps amid a lot of drama, including threats from politicians targeting the app and the affiliated Diem stablecoin.If the seemingly endless parade of bad publicity — including an outage that shut off Facebook payments and a whistleblower testifying before Congress — makes it harder for Novi to expand beyond its first steps, Facebook's financial services business could fail to gain the consumer trust it needs. "It will be interesting to watch adoption rates for Novi given that Facebook continues to underestimate the importance of trust," said Tim Sloane, vice president of payments innovation at Mercator.
Five U.S. Senators Tell Zuckerberg that Facebook Can’t Be Trusted and to Back Off His Crypto Plans - Pam Martens -- Today, five Democratic Senators, including the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Sherrod Brown, sent a scorching letter to Mark Zuckerberg, Chairman and CEO of Facebook, telling him that Facebook “cannot be trusted to manage a payment system or digital currency when its existing ability to manage risks and keep consumers safe has proven wholly insufficient.” The letter demanded that Zuckerberg back off plans to launch a cryptocurrency and digital wallet. The letter was authored by Senators Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut), Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), and Tina Smith (D-Minnesota). The Senators wrote: “Given the scope of the scandals surrounding your company, we write to voice our strongest opposition to Facebook’s revived effort to launch a cryptocurrency and digital wallet, now branded ‘Diem’ and ‘Novi,’ respectively. In October 2019, Senators Schatz and Brown wrote to members of the Diem Association’s predecessor, the Libra Association, and expressed deep concerns about the risks the project posed to consumers and the financial system. Facebook subsequently shelved Libra amid regulatory scrutiny, but you did not address our concerns before resuming this endeavor.”The Senators also reminded Zuckerberg that Facebook has a history of “moving fast and breaking things” and “misleading Congress in order to do so.” For context on today’s letter to Zuckerberg, see our earlier report on Zuckerberg’s plan for the Libra digital currency: “Senator Compares Facebook’s Libra Association to Spectre in James Bond Movie.”
New York orders crypto lenders to close operations in state -New York’s attorney general ordered two unlicensed cryptocurrency lending platforms to cease operating in the state as authorities continue to clamp down on crypto firms over fraud concerns. The names of the companies were not disclosed. In an order, the Office of the Attorney General said it had evidence that the platforms were illegally selling or offering security products without being registered with the state as a broker-dealer. They have 10 days to close up shop in New York. In a separate order, the state AG required three other unnamed crypto platforms to submit detailed explanations of their business models, including the nature of any lending and deposit products. Responses must be returned by Nov. 1.
Minority-owned credit unions object to key element of NCUA capital plan - A recent rule change proposed by the National Credit Union Administration could hurt minority-owned credit unions and their members.At its September board meeting, the NCUA issued a proposal to exempt secondary capitalprovided by U.S. government entities — including the Treasury Department’s Emergency Capital Investment Program — from the agency’s pending subordinated debt rule.Credit unions applauded the overall proposal because it would give them another potential source of secondary capital. But one provision in it is causing some credit unions grief.
FHFA will make desktop home appraisals a permanent option - Home appraisals conducted without the physical presence of an appraiser will be allowed permanently on loans bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, starting in early 2022. Sandra Thompson, the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, announced the change Monday. It's designed to allow banks and mortgage lenders to use so-called desktop appraisals in lieu of in-person home valuations. The change makes permanent a provisional measure that Fannie and Freddie instituted during the pandemic.
Looming tenant crisis another test of CFPB’s authority -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, now with a new director, is poised to target mortgage servicers that don't do right by homeowners facing economic hardship. But it also has an eye on landlords that mistreat tenants. Just as the agency is concerned about what will happen to borrowers when their pandemic assistance ends, the CFPB is focused on a looming crisis for low-income renters after a nationwide eviction moratorium expired. Although the bureau's authority to pursue landlords is under debate, observers believe the agency could attempt certain enforcement tactics, such as investigating mistreatment of renters by debt collectors or asset managers with residential management portfolios.
Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in September -- Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below). Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus. From Black Knight: Black Knight: Foreclosure Starts Reverse Course in September, Pulling Back Despite Moratoria Expiration; Delinquency Rate Falls Below 4% for First Time Since Start of Pandemic• The national delinquency rate fell to 3.91% in September – the first time it’s been below 4% in 18 months – marking a 2.3% decline from August and 41.3% from the same time last year
• What would have been stronger improvement was partially offset by delinquencies rising by 7,800 in FEMA-declared disaster areas in hurricane-impacted Louisiana and by 11,000 in the state as a whole
• Foreclosure starts also dipped in September after seeing a noticeable rise in August in the wake of the federal foreclosure moratoria expiration
• September’s 3,900 foreclosure starts was the third lowest monthly total on record and within 6% of the record low set back in April of this year
• likewise, the number of active foreclosures fell in September as well, hitting yet another all-time low
• With nearly 400,000 mortgage holders having exited forbearance plans in just the first two weeks of October alone, it will be essential to track foreclosure metrics closely in the coming months
• Some 1.2 million homeowners remain 90 or more days past due on their mortgages but are not yet in foreclosure, including those who are still in active forbearance plans
According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 2.3% in September compared to August, and decreased 41% year-over-year.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 4.6% in September and were down 25% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.91% in September, down from 4.00% in August. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in September to 0.26%, from 0.27% in August.The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 1,474,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 46,000 properties year-over-year.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.28%" - Note: This is as of October 10th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.28%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 34 basis points from 2.62% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.28% as of October 10, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 16 basis points to 1.05%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 17 basis points to 2.77%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 108 basis points to 5.34%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 25 basis points relative to the prior week to 2.57%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 53 basis points to 2.16%. “Forbearance exits continued at an even more robust pace, resulting in a 34 basis-point decline in the overall forbearance rate. The decline was apparent across all servicer types and investor types,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “There was a substantial drop of over 1 percentage point in the forbearance rate for portfolio and PLS loans, which includes loans held for investment purposes, loans serviced for private investors, and government loans that were bought out of Ginnie Mae pools for the purposes of modifying them and then re-securitizing them into Ginnie Mae pools.” Added Fratantoni, “We are now down to 1.1 million homeowners in forbearance from a peak of 4.3 million homeowners in June 2020. Positive employment and wage prospects, continued home-price appreciation, and the availability of multiple loan workout options are factors that will smooth many homeowners’ transition out of forbearance.”. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.05% to 0.04%."
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 6.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 15, 2021.... The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Refinance applications declined for the fourth week as rates increased, bringing the refinance index to its lowest level since July 2021. The 30-year fixed rate has increased 20 basis points over the past month and reached 3.23 percent last week – the highest since April 2021. The 15-year fixed rate increased to 2.54 percent, which is the highest since July,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity declined and was 12 percent lower than a year ago, within the annual comparison range that it has been over the past six weeks. Insufficient housing supply and elevated home-price growth continue to limit options for would-be buyers.”... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.23 percent from 3.18 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With relatively low rates, the index remains somewhat elevated - but the recent bump in rates has slowed activity. The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 12% year-over-year unadjusted. Note: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now difficult since purchase activity was strong in the second half of 2020.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.29 million in September From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascend 7.0% in September: Existing-home sales rebounded in September after seeing sales wane the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed increases on a month-over-month basis. From a year-over-year timeframe, one region held steady while the three others each reported a decline in sales.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.29 million in September. However, sales decreased 2.3% from a year ago (6.44 million in September 2020)....Total housing inventory at the end of September amounted to 1.27 million units, down 0.8% from August and down 13.0% from one year ago (1.46 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.4-month supply at the present sales pace, down 7.7% from August and down from 2.7 months in September 2020.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in September (6.29 million SAAR) were up 7.0% from last month, and were 2.3% below the September 2020 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.27 million in September from 1.28 million in August.Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 13.0% year-over-year in September compared to September 2020.Months of supply was decreased to 2.4 months in September from 2.6 months in August.
Median House Price Growth Decelerated for Fourth Consecutive Month -Today, in the Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.29 million in September. Excerpt:On prices, the NAR reported: The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $352,800, up 13.3% from September 2020 ($311,500), as prices rose in each region.Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices), but this is the fourth consecutive month with a deceleration in the median price. The NAR reported median prices were up 23.6% YoY in May, 23.4% in June, 17.8% in July, 14.9% in August and 13.3% in September. This deceleration will probably show up in Case-Shiller and the FHFA indexes very soon.The graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021. This was the second month this year with sales down year-over-year. This should continue through the rest of the year, since sales averaged 6.7million SAAR over the last three months of 2020
Fear of Rising Mortgage Rates Meets Fizzling Pandemic-Frenzy? Prices of Existing Homes Fall for 3rd Month. But, But, But… | Wolf Street By Wolf Richter Sales of existing homes of all types – single-family houses, condos, and co-ops – were down 2.3% year-over-year in September, the second month in a row of year-over-year declines, and were down 6.5% from the peak in October last year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors today. But compared to the prior month, sales rose 7.0% to a “seasonally adjusted annual rate” of sales of 6.29 million homes (historic data in the chart viaYCharts). Year-over-year, single-family house sales fell, condo & co-op sales rose. Sales of single-family houses, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.59 million houses, were down 3.1% year-over-year, the third month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the biggest year-over-year decline since May 2020, and down 7.0% from the peak frenzy in October last year.Condo sales, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 700,000 condos, were still up 4.5% from last year, but it was the smallest year-over-year gain since June 2020.The chart below of year-over-year percentage changes in total sales shows the blistering boom in home sales last year and earlier this year, and how this boom in sales has now lost steam: Fear of higher mortgage rates. There is a well-established phenomenon at work. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in mid-August came with a rate of 2.87%, and at the end of September with a rate of 3.01%. In the latest reporting week, released today, the rate rose to 3.09%.During the early phases of rising-rates, such as now, buyers try to lock in a rate before they rise even more, which leads to a rush in home sales that then turns into a decline as rates rise further. But even with this rush, sales were still down 2.3% from a year ago.This will be particularly interesting this time around since prices have shot up so far so fast last year and earlier this year that even small increases from the record-low mortgage rates will put even more affordability pressures on the market, and sap some demand.The median price fell for the third month in a row in September from August, to $352,800 for all types of existing homes combined.Declining prices in September are not unusual. But last year, seasonally was totally upended when prices spiked no matter what, as you can see in the chart below. Reverting to seasonality is the first step back from craziness toward what is now called “normalization” or “deceleration.”This price decline further reduced the year-over-year price gains for all homes combined to 13.3%, down from a year-over-year gain of 23.6% during peak-frenzy in May.Maybe Zillow, when it decided to stop buying houses for its flipping business, saw something in its massive pile of data: algo-driven house flipping is a lot harder when the frenzy is gone, and when it bought many of those homes at peak prices (historic data via YCharts):
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.555 Million Annual Rate in September --From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privately‐owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,555,000. This is 1.6 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,580,000, but is 7.4 percent above the September 2020 rate of 1,448,000. Single‐family housing starts in September were at a rate of 1,080,000; this is virtually unchanged from the revised August figure of 1,080,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 467,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,589,000. This is 7.7 percent below the revised August rate of 1,721,000, but is virtually unchanged from the September 2020 rate of 1,589,000. Single‐family authorizations in September were at a rate of 1,041,000; this is 0.9 percent below the revised August figure of 1,050,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 498,000 in September. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in September compared to August. Multi-family starts were up 38% year-over-year in September. Single-family starts (red) were unchanged in September, and were down 2% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high).Total housing starts in September were below expectations, and starts in July and August were revised down, combined.
New housing construction for September shows a big decline on the surface -This morning’s report on September housing permits and starts looks very negative on the surface, but on closer examination shows continuing stabilization in new home construction, following the general stabilization of mortgage rates this year.Housing starts (violet in the graphs below) decreased -1.6% m/m, and total permits (blue) decreased a whopping 7.7%(!), but only after a downwardly revised 5.6% increase in August. The less volatile single-family permits (red) decreased -0.9%. As a result, the overall trend for all three metrics for the past several months is a slight decrease:For the past several months I have noted that the YoY comparisons were going to become much more challenging, given the boom in construction late last year. Indeed this has been the case, with total permits unchanged, single family permits down -7.1%, but housing starts *up* 7.4%: The YoY increase in starts is noteworthy because it highlights an unusual event which has taken place over the past year; namely, a record number of permits were issued for houses that were not promptly started. Take another look at the first graph above, and note the sharp divergence between the violet line (starts) and the other two last winter. Single family permits increased 30% in the 2nd half of last year, and total permits over 20%, but actual starts only increased a little over 10%. The below graph shows the % by which permits have exceeded starts, averaged by quarter. Before this quarter, the *least* % by which permits exceed starts in the previous year was 6.8%, so I have subtracted that to norm it at zero. Simply put, the below graph indicates that this yearlong divergenace between early 2020 and early 2021 was the biggest of the past decade: This year single family permits have declined almost -18% and total permits over -15%, but the three month average of starts has declined only -2.1% from 1599/month to 1566/month. In other words, the actual on-the-ground economic activity in housing construction hasn’t declined much at all, most likely because housing materials at reasonable prices constrained the actual building of houses authorized by permits. This suggests much less of a real economic downdraft than would otherwise be the case.And the evidence from mortgage rates is that housing should be (and is) stabilizing. Here is the raw mortgage interest rate number (gold), left scale vs. the absolute number of single family permits (right scale): In the past 5 months rates have stabilized between the 2.75%-3.05%, and housing can be expected to resume a moderate increasing trend in response. This is also shown when we compare the YoY% changes in mortgage rates (inverted) and single family housing permits over the past 10+ years: Mortgage rates have only increased 0.24% YoY, so for all intents and purposes have been flat YoY for the past 3 months. In sum, this continues to suggest that the economy, which tends to follow housing with a 1 year+ lag, after a period of cooling early next year, will also stabilize later on.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 7.67% in August --The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for September new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.589M was down 7.7% from the August reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.680M. Here is the opening of this morning's monthly report, including a note regarding revisions: Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,589,000. This is 7.7 percent (±0.9 percent) below the revised August rate of 1,721,000, but is virtually unchanged from (±1.1 percent)* the September 2020 rate of 1,589,000. Single‐family authorizations in September were at a rate of 1,041,000; this is 0.9 percent (±0.8 percent) below the revised August figure of 1,050,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 498,000 in September. [link to report] Here is the complete historical series, which dates from 1960. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included. Here is the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates show substantial growth in the US population since 1960. Here is a chart of housing starts as a percent of the population. We've added a linear regression through the monthly data to highlight the trend.
Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974 by Bill McBride --From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privately owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,555,000. This is 1.6 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,580,000, but is 7.4 percent above the September 2020 rate of 1,448,000. Single‐family housing starts in September were at a rate of 1,080,000; this is virtually unchanged from the revised August figure of 1,080,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 467,000. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble). The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968. Total housing starts in September were below expectations, and starts in July and August were revised down, combined. The third graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2020 (blue) and 2021 (red). Starts were up 7.4% in September compared to September 2020. The year-over-year comparison are more difficult at end of 2021. In 2020, starts were off to a strong start before the pandemic, and with low interest rates, and little competing existing home inventory, starts finished 2020 strong. The fourth graph shows starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 712 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This is the highest level since 2007.For single family, most of these homes a re already sold (Census counts sales when contract is signed). The reason there are so many homes is probably due to construction delays. Since most of these are already sold, it is unlikely this is “overbuilding”, or that this will impact prices. Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are are 714 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Census will release data next year on the length of time from start to completion, and that will probably show long delays in 2021. In 2020, it took an average of 6.8 months from start to completion for single family homes, and 15.4 months for buildings with 2 or more units.Combined, there are 1.426 million units under construction. This is the most since 1974. Below is a graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. Starts have picked up, but completions (red) have turned down - due to the construction delays. The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer than for multi-family. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. The recent gap between starts and completions is due to the construction delays.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 80 in October --of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 80, up from 76 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From the NAHB: Strong Demand Boosts Builder Confidence Despite Supply Chain Disruptions:Strong consumer demand helped push builder confidence higher in October despite growing affordability challenges stemming from rising material prices and shortages. Builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes moved four points higher to 80 in October, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.“Although demand and home sales remain strong, builders continue to grapple with ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages that are delaying completion times and putting upward pressure on building material and home prices,” “Builders are getting increasingly concerned about affordability hurdles ahead for most buyers,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Building material price increases and bottlenecks persist and interest rates are expected to rise in coming months as the Fed begins to taper its purchase of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed debt. ...All three major HMI indices posted gains in October. The index gauging current sales conditions rose five points to 87, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months posted a three-point gain to 84 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers moved four points higher to 65.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Midwest rose one point to 69, the Northeast held steady at 72, the South and West each remained unchanged at 80 and 83, respectively.
This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was above the consensus forecast, and a strong reading.
AIA: "Demand for design services continues to increase" in September - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Demand for design services continues to increase: Architecture firms continue to report increasing demand for design services in September, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for September was 56.6, which is up from August’s score of 55.6. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings from the prior month. During September, scoring for both the new project inquiries and design contracts moderated slightly, but remained in positive territory, posting scores of 61.8 and 54.7 respectively.“The ABI scores over the last eight months continue to be among the highest ever seen in the immediate post-recession periods that have been captured throughout the index’s history,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “However, it’s unlikely that revenue increases at architecture firms can sustain this pace. Given that growth in both new design contracts and project inquiries have moderated in recent months, we expect to see a similar path for the ABI.”...
• Regional averages: Midwest (57.7); South (57.0); West (56.0); Northeast (51.5)
• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (58.8); commercial/industrial (58.1); multi-family residential (56.1); institutional (53.5)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 56.6 in September, up from 55.6 in August. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.This index had been below 50 for eleven consecutive months, but has been solidly positive for the last eight months. The eleven months of decline represented a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 (This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months), however we might see a pickup in CRE investment in Q4 2021 and in 2022.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 10% Compared to Same Week in 2019 - Note: Since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, CoStar is comparing to 2019. From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Reaches Highest Level Since Mid-August: U.S. hotel occupancy reached its highest level since mid-August, while room rates dipped from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through October 16.
October 10-16, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 65.0% (-10%)
• verage daily rate (ADR): $134.03 (-1.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $87.15 (-11.3%)
Week-over-week demand growth came almost exclusively from the Sunday ahead of Columbus Day. Overall for the three-day holiday weekend (8-10 October), occupancy reached 72% as compared with 75% in 2019. *Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019.Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel. However, this year, so far, business travel has been lighter than leisure travel in 2021.
Home heating sticker shock: The cost of natural gas is up 180% – CNN - Americans should brace for sticker shock on home heating costs as temperatures drop this fall and winter.Prices for natural gas, the most common way to heat homes and a leading fuel source for generating electricity, have surged more than 180% over the past 12 months to $5.90 per million British thermal units. Natural gas hasn't been this expensive since February 2014.The risk is that an early winter or extremely cold fall temperatures will force households to crank up the heat. That would further shrink the nation's below-average stockpiles of natural gas and could lift prices even higher. "If we get an early frost, it could get ugly. It could get ugly fast," The natural gas spike is exacerbating the United States' first brush with inflation in more than a dozen years. Families are already dealing with surging prices on everything from used cars andgasoline to bacon.The inflation surge is forcing the Federal Reserve to consider curtailing its ongoing support of the economy and leading some moderate lawmakers to question the need for the White House's ambitious spending plans. Meanwhile the energy crunch is making global investors nervous about economic growth and high prices. "This would be bad enough even in normal times. But now there is this general fear about inflation," said Robert McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.About half of US households use natural gas for home and water heating, according to the US Energy Information Administration.The American Gas Association, which represents natural gas utilities like Con Edison, noted that "natural gas utility customers are not paying the day-to-day prices for natural gas that we see in the headlines," spokesperson Jake Rubin said in a statement.That's because, AGA stressed, its members buy gas through long-term contracts that lock in prices and shield customers from some of the volatility. Rubin added that utilities augment winter supplies with storage of gas purchased months earlier.
Michigan residents unlikely to see natural gas prices soar as high as elsewhere, experts say - Michigan residents face plenty of variables in this furnace-running season, both from the weather and the power bills they’ll face to heat their homes – but the odds may be in their favor. National energy officials this week said winter heating bills are expected to skyrocket, for some homes by more than 50 percent. However, experts said Michigan’s natural gas storage capacity, market practices and even untapped reserves position the state better than most others, even heading into a forecasted rollercoaster La Ninã winter. Environmental advocates nationwide and in Michigan said they hope painfully high natural gas prices becomes motivation homeowners need to replace gas furnaces and other appliances with electric versions. That would reduce overall residential use of the fossil fuel, encourage faster renewable energy development and better confront greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, they argue. “We really need to push a lot of the natural gas people that are on it to electric, so this might actually be doing it,” said Jan O’Connell of Sierra Club’s Michigan Chapter. However, natural gas prices in the Great Lakes state may not crescendo quite as much as predicted elsewhere. That’s largely because Michigan boasts more natural gas storage capacity than anywhere else in the nation, which state officials said allows utilities to physically hedge against national prices. It’s the unique geological features of the state that allow companies to store underground natural gas which can be released when demand spikes during cold snaps. “Michigan has the most storage in the United States for natural gas. So, we are really well positioned to be insulated from any price spike due to weather or supply shortages,” said Nora Quilico, sales forecasting manager for the Michigan Public Service Commission. “Our two major utilities – which serve like 90 percent of the customers in Michigan – DTE and Consumers Energy, get over 50 percent of their winter requirements from storage.” That means the reserves can absorb the financial shock of spiked demand when extremely cold weather lures homeowners to crank up their thermostats.
Largest Cities Had Some of the Lowest U.S. Inflation Rates in September – WSJ -The consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 5.4% in September from a year earlier. Rising energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and an increase in spending have led to higher inflation across the country. While prices rose across the board for the year ended last month, the degree of change varied among different geographic regions and populations. Among the metropolitan areas surveyed, the largest and most urban places had some of the lowest price increases. Chicago saw an increase of 4.5%, and in the New York City area there was a 3.8% increase. The Northeast region’s rate was nearly a percentage point below the overall national level.To measure prices, the CPI focuses on what urban consumers pay for a hypothetical basket of goods and services. Those items are weighted to reflect the relative importance of components for a consumer living in a U.S. city. Rent accounts for 7.9% of the basket, while private transportation, including new and used vehicles and gasoline, makes up 14.1%. In the New York City area’s weighting, rent represents 12.1% of the basket, and private transportation is 9.2%. The design of the baskets for how people in cities spend their money, and how much income they spend on eating out or renting a car, is based on information from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys of urban consumers. We used the surveys to compare how residents in rural areas, central cities and other urban areas budgeted their money, and we found that some of the spending categories with big differences between urban and rural areas also had big price increases, according to the CPI. The Consumer Expenditure Surveys define urban areas as the central city and attached locations inside a metropolitan statistical area, as well as other places with 2,500 or more people.Rural consumers’ mean expenditures on gasolineand used cars and trucks were well above those of urban-area consumers in 2020. Households outside urban areas spent 37% more than the U.S. average on used cars and trucks, while spending in central cities was 9% lower than the average. The spending category saw one of the largest price increases in September’s CPI, up 24.4% compared with a year earlier.On the other hand, rent, a heavyweight in central-city consumers’ budgets, saw some of the smallest price increases in September. Consumers spent less and saved more as they lived through the Covid-19 pandemic, and stay-at-home orders altered spending habits last year. Apparel spending was down 24% in 2020, and spending on food away from home was 33% lower, according to the Consumer Expenditure Surveys. In 2021, as cities start to go back to their usual activities, price increases in those categories are likely to affect urban consumers more. In September, indexes for food away from home rose 4.7% from the same period a year earlier, compared with a 4.5% increase for food at home.
Biden administration's mishandling of supply chain crisis feeds inflation - As Americans took to social media to post pictures of bare Dunkin’ Donuts shelves, sold-out milk at big-box stores and other signs of an America in trouble, we learned that Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has been on paternity leave since August. Buttigieg was always going to be a lightweight transportation chief. He got the job as a reward for dropping out of the presidential race and throwing his support to Joe Biden — and also because he said he likes trains, having gotten engaged at a train station.My 5-year-old likes trains, too. Yet just because he can say “Choo choo!” with enthusiasm doesn’t mean he can oversee the country’s transportation system. When the country is having supply-chain problems, the transportation secretary’s skills and experience, let alone availability, become rather, uh, indispensable.Buttigieg can take a two-month paternity leave, but the guy who runs the pizza shop down the block can’t just disappear for two months without putting someone else in charge. Someone has to make the calzone.The public didn’t even learn about Buttigieg’s break at the start, but only after transportation-related problems exploded around us. Who’s running the shop? Anyone?This is all in keeping with the way a distracted, carefree, ideological Biden administration has operated the whole time. In September, the president took a weekend beach trip as the disaster on our southern border blew up and 14,000 Haitian migrants camped out under a bridge in Del Rio, Texas. As the US pullout from Afghanistan turned into an unmitigated disaster, the president disappeared — surfacing later to claim it was an enormous “success.”Now, as Americans start to worry about stocking their cupboards and buying Christmas presents, Biden goes more than a week refusing to take any questions. Sorry, but this is unacceptable, no matter who’s president.Maybe we should’ve known: After all, Biden hid in his basement for much of his presidential campaign, and his aides routinely called early “lids,” telling the press the candidate would be unavailable for the day.
Supply Chain Shortages and Inflation: How Bad Will the Disruption Become? - by Yves Smith - As William Gibson famously said, “The future is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed.“ And that appears to go double for our current supply chain crisis. It’s hit key sectors, above all autos, hard, but others seems to oddly unaffected.1However, these problems are likely to both become more severe and persist longer than they should due to the poor responses of our elites. Some of these disruptions are due to things outside US control, like chip makers being whipsawed by carmakers who slashed orders then wanting to go back to their old levels double plus quick when the chipmakers are plenty busy thanks to electronics company orders, and widespread power outages in China.On the one hand, Biden Administration officials have urged consumers to buy earlier for Christmas (particularly toys because China). Worse, the UK is suffering food shortages and citizens have been warned they might not be able to procure a Christmas dinner. Americans are feeling the pinch because two of the categories they buy most often, food and gas, are seeing big spikes. From Bloomberg:Consumers around the world are about to get socked with even higher prices on everyday items, companies from food giant Unilever Plc to lubricant maker WD-40 Co. warned this week as they grapple with supply difficulties.The maker of Dove soap and Magnum ice-cream bars jacked up prices by more than 4% on average last quarter, the biggest jump since 2012, and signaled elevated pricing will continue into next year. A similar refrain came from Nestle SA, Procter & Gamble Co. and Danone SA, whose products dominate supermarket aisles and kitchen cupboards.“We’re in for at least another 12 months of inflationary pressures,” Unilever CEO Alan Jope said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We are in a once-in-two-decades inflationary environment.”Read this part carefully:Companies are facing a dire mix of supply-chain challenges, as well as higher costs for energy, raw materials, packaging and shipping. While most consumer-goods makers reporting results this week expressed confidence that they’ll be able to limit the long-term hit to profitability, that means the pain passes to consumers, upping the squeeze on pockets as Christmas approaches.Ahem, “long-term hit to profitability”? Analysts don’t care about long term. This is code for they are passing through their price increases close to, if not entirely. And that’s disgraceful given that corporate profit share has been at a record share of GDP for years, more than double the level in the early 2000s.
In 'Deep Ship'? Biden Weighs National Guard To Address Record Number Of Vessels Off Los Angeles -It's becoming impossible to ignore just how unprepared the Biden administration is in tackling the current shipping crisis and its impact on domestic supply chains and state economies. A significant backlog of container ships continues to pile up at Los Angeles and Long Beach ports, even though President Biden issued a directive last week to keep both ports, which account for 40% of all shipping containers entering the U.S., operating on a 24/7 basis. Now the administration is so desperate that they're weighing the use of the National Guard to alleviate stretched supply chains so that Americans will hopefully get their consumer goods before the holidays, according to AP News. With a record 97 container ships at anchor across the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, congestion at the nation's top ports worsens. To alleviate bottlenecks threatening the holiday shopping season, the White House released a directive last week advising both ports to operate on a 24/7 basis to counter the backlog. For some context, the ports typically have 17 ships at anchor in pre-pandemic times, so with 97, it only suggests Biden's plan is "too little too late," explained one U.S. importer of toys. The administration is searching for other ideas to alleviate port congestion. According to WaPo, citing three sources, Biden's team has explored whether deploying the National Guard at the ports would quell overwhelmed supply chains. One source said the administration has not considered activating the National Guard at a federal level but could soon deploy Guardsmen on a state level. They may take a page out from the U.K. when they deployed troops to resolve gas shortages last month. What's likely to happen are Guardsmen with licenses to operate heavy machinery or trucks could be deployed.Much of the port congestion is due to the relentless, fiscally stimulated demand for (made in China) products by Americans, all thanks to the government handing out hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus checks. Labor shortages at ports have also been another issue, which originated when the Biden administration began paying people more money to sit on their couches than work. A.P. notes that a trade group representing clothing manufacturers has requested the National Guard or even naval ports to unload cargo.
LA Area Port Traffic: Solid Imports, Weak Exports in September -Incoming port traffic is backed up significantly in the LA area with numerous ships at anchor waiting to unload. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 0.4% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending in August. Outbound traffic was down 2.0% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. 2021 started off incredibly strong for imports - and with the backlog of ships, will probably continue strong. Imports were down 4% YoY in September (recovered last year following the early months of the pandemic), and exports were down 23% YoY.
The Port of LA has just seen cargoes hit record highs -- Regular readers will know that we’re not at all convinced that enough is being done to emphasise the role high demand is playing in the supply chain logjams that are making headlines pretty much every day right now.With that in mind, we’d like to point you to the latest news from the Port of Los Angeles:The Port of Los Angeles processed 903,865 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in September, the busiest September ever in the Port’s 114-year history. Year to date, overall cargo volume stands at 8,176,917 TEUs, an increase of 26% compared to 2020.Yes, that’s right, during September, with several Covid restrictions still in place, the port managed to process a record amount of cargo.The news comes after President Joe Biden said the port would open 24/7 in the run-up to Christmas. We’re not hedging our bets that this will have a drastic improvement in unblocking the US’s clogged up supply chains.What Biden’s big idea may well do, however, is add to the sense of chagrin felt by workers at the port and other parts of the logistics chain. This could worsen the labour shortages that have been a factor in the supply chain snags seen in the US and in Europe. Workers could refuse to take the longer hours, only exacerbating the logjam.It’s no surprise then that Gene Seroka, the port’s CEO, paid special attention his own workforce in the press release.But, of note, he also paid tribute to the railways too:Despite the global supply chain challenges, the Port of Los Angeles and its partners continue to deliver record amounts of cargo. This is made possible by the extraordinary effort of our longshore workers, truck drivers, terminal operators and so many others on the waterfront and in our region’s warehouses. I’m grateful to all of them. Of particular note is the great work by BNSF and Union Pacific, which have reduced the rail backlog in half in the last month and by two-thirds over the last two months. We’ve got more work to do but we’ve made significant progress due to the collaborative efforts with our Class 1 railroads.We think this is the right call, not only because workers could threaten to walk out.What ought not to be forgotten is the extent to which the logistics industry have been under pressure, having to essentially play catch-up for what’s now an 18 month stretch. They have to do so in workplaces where restrictions limit the number of staff that can come in each shift. Many workers have also had to spend time off after either catching Covid or coming into contact with those who have. That record cargoes have been processed in such conditions is remarkable.Yet, as the holiday season ebbs into the New Year and the US economy continues to re-open, it’s not hard to imagine that we’ll see a slow decline in demand for durables begin to set in. After that . . . well, prices should follow suit.
"People Are Hoarding" - Supermarkets Are The Next Supply Chain Crunch As Food Shortages Persist --It's been 19 months since the virus pandemic began, and supply chain disruptions continue, making it more difficult for customers to find their favorite item at supermarkets nationwide. Simultaneously, the psychology of empty store shelves and President Biden's inability to normalize supply chains forced some people to panic hoard this fall as uncertainty about food supplies mount.Chris Jones, Senior Vice President of Government Affairs & Counsel of the National Grocers Association, told Today, "shopping early for the holidays is a wise strategy, especially under current conditions." "There's plenty of food in the supply chain, but certain items may be harder to get at certain times due to a nationwide shortage of labor impacting manufacturers, shippers and retailers. Additionally, lack of enforcement of antitrust laws in the grocery marketplace have allowed dominant retailers to secure more favorable terms and ample supplies of high-demand goods while leaving many smaller retailers with limited selections or, in some cases, bare shelves," Jones said. In a separate report, USA Today listed items that customers are having trouble finding at grocery stores.
- Ben & Jerry flavors
- Carbonated drinks
- Chicken
- Coffee
- Diapers
- Fish sticks
- Frozen meals
- Heinz ketchup packets
- Marie Callender's pot pies
- McCormick Gourmet spices
- Rice Krispie Treats
- Sour Patch Kids
- Toilet paper
Persistent disruptions in supply chains continue to upended daily life as supplies of essential goods at grocery stores continue to dwindle. "I never imagined that we'd be here in October 2021 talking about supply-chain problems, but it's a reality," Vivek Sankaran, CEO of supermarket chain Albertsons Cos., told Bloomberg. "Any given day, you're going to have something missing in our stores, and it's across categories."
India Breaks the Diaper Monopolists. Why Won’t Americans Step Up? - Bloomberg reports diaper costs were up 14% year-over-year since last January and show no sign of slowing down. That same story article details a man spending $300 per month keeping the tuchases of his twin 3-year-old grandkids dry. The New York Timesreports about a man who walked out with diapers and without paying after his bank card was declined. When his photo was circulated by the store, they were criticized and he was heralded as a folk hero.The reason for diaper inflation is arguably more greed than global supply chain woes. Specifically, a duopoly by Kimberly-Clark and Procter & Gamble controls about 70% of all diapers. It doesn’t matter if people buy Huggies, Pampers, Luvs, or Pull-Ups; the funds all flow to the same two businesses.A formerly illiterate Indian weaver developed a business model to break the diaper duopoly keeping baby tushies clean and their parent’s pocketbooks solvent. Naturally, the disposable diaper businesses blame the price increase on increasing material costs (never mind their stock buybacks) but, just as naturally, a quick glance at those material costs makes those claims iffy. It’s not that costs haven’t gone up but, rather, material costs are like when you change a diaper and find there isn’t much there. The core ingredient in diapers is a product called fluffy pulp, which is essentially fluffed up tree fibers, plus a small amount of plastic that goes around it and, sometimes, a “super absorbent layer” which is more marketing gimmick than anything. Fluffy pulp is widely available on Alibaba from China for $850 per ton which Google tells me yields 907,185 grams of pulp. At 13-25 grams per diaper, the cost of the active ingredient per diaper ranges from $.012 – $.023 at today’s presumably inflated prices. Amazon says Size 2 Pampers are a bestseller. They charge $53.44 for 234 diapers, labeled a one-month supply (a higher estimate than others; diaper banks typically give families 50 diapers per month). At the prices listed above, the material cost for pulp would range from $2.85 to $5.48 plus the plastic to wrap it, ship it, and profit margin. That is, material costs may drive down profit margins slightly but they aren’t what’s driving up diaper prices. Obviously, those companies could absorb the material price fluctuations rather than causing them to leak into people’s food budgets. A more sustainable answer might be to leverage an innovation created by Arunachalam Murugananthamis, India’s Pad Man. You can see his invention in the Academy Award winning Netflix documentary Period. End of Sentence.(available free on YouTube) or the Bollywood blockbuster Pad Man. I also wrote a case about himand we spent time talking.Realizing Indian women would never purchase menstrual pads even if they could afford them, which they couldn’t, Murugananthamis invented a business model and the machinery to encourage the use of pads around India and other developing nations. He sells women-owned businesses micro-factory equipment they use to create pads they then sell or barter to local women. The pads allow girls to remain in school after their menses — when, not long ago, they would’ve been relegated to menstrual huts or fields — and women to own a small business gaining independence from men.
Industrial Production Decreased 1.3 Percent in September --From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production fell 1.3 percent in September after moving down 0.1 percent in August; output was previously reported to have risen 0.4 percent in August. In September, manufacturing output decreased 0.7 percent: The production of motor vehicles and parts fell 7.2 percent, as shortages of semiconductors continued to hobble operations, while factory output elsewhere declined 0.3 percent. The output of utilities dropped 3.6 percent, as demand for cooling subsided after a warmer-than-usual August. Mining production fell 2.3 percent.The lingering effects of Hurricane Ida more than accounted for the drop in mining in September; they also contributed 0.3 percentage point to the drop in manufacturing. Overall, about 0.6 percentage point of the drop in total industrial production resulted from the impact of the hurricane.Despite the decrease in September, total industrial production rose 4.3 percent at an annual rate for the third quarter as a whole, its fifth consecutive quarter with a gain of at least 4 percent.At 100.0 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in September was 4.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 1.0 percentage point in September to 75.2 percent, a rate that is 4.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, but below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 75.2% is 4.4% below the average from 1972 to 2020. This was well below consensus expectations.The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production decreased in September to 100.0. This is 1.3% below the February 2020 level.The change in industrial production was well below consensus expectations.
Hit by Shortages, Vehicle & Parts Production Plunged to Lowest since Lockdown. Oil & Gas Has New Script ,by Wolf Richter --Industrial production – manufacturing output, oil-and-gas extraction, mining, and gas and electric utilities – fell 1.3% in September from August, pushed down by production of motor vehicles and parts, which plunged 7.2% for the month, and by oil and gas extraction, which fell 3.8%. Manufacturing of motor vehicles and parts has been hobbled all year by supply semiconductor shortages that have led to rotating shutdowns of parts manufacturing operations and assembly plants. The shortages continued to get worse – despite assurances earlier this year that they would be over with by Q4.The manufacturing production index for motor vehicles and parts, adjusted for inflation, dropped to a value of 85.4. Beyond the collapse of production during the lockdown, it was the lowest output value since 2013 and was back where it had been in 2006: Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing started hitting new highs in 2014 on an annual basis and continued to grow and peaked in 2018, before dipping in 2019 and plunging in 2020. This year promises to be rough too. Unlike the Great Recession collapse of production of motor vehicles and parts – which was driven by a collapse in demand that caused GM and Chrysler and many component makers to file for bankruptcy – the drop in production this year was driven by supply shortages. The drop in production, amid strong demand, has caused inventories at auto dealers to be essentially depleted.In an effort to keep their plants running, automakers have built large numbers of nearly finished vehicles that are missing a part of two and were put on storage lots until those parts arrive. Then the finished vehicles are shipped to dealers. In Q3, GM shipped over 68,000 of those vehicles to dealers.Production of these unfinished vehicles sent into storage is included in these production figures. But they cannot be sold until they’re finished, and sales in September of new vehicles have continued their supply-driven multi-month plunge:Oil and gas extraction dropped 3.8% in September from August, and was down 0.7% year-over-year, as producers along the Gulf Coast got slammed by Hurricane Ida, which raged from late August to early September, and shut down production temporarily.The shale oil and gas industry bloodied and wiped out investors after hundreds of bankruptcies and debt restructurings during the oil bust from 2015 through 2020, following years when the only thing that mattered were production increases, no matter what the losses. This relentless surge in production caused oil and gas prices to collapse, and companies with them.What’s left of the industry has tightened up, as burned investors have gotten careful, and the flood of money into the industry has slowed. Production has slowed too, as the highly fragmented shale oil-and-gas industry is now focused on keeping production down to levels that allow prices of oil and gas to rise. And they have risen big time.Oil and gas extraction has been booming for years. From 2006 through September – a period over which the production index of motor vehicles and parts has remained flat – the oil and gas extraction index has surged by 117%, despite the 10.8% drop over the past two years:
September industrial production turns down, but no major cause for concern - Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. This morning’s report for September was negative, and August was revised downward, taking total production back below pre-pandemic levels. Total production decreased -1.3% in September, and the manufacturing component decreased -0.8%. The August reading for each was revised downward by -0.3%. Nothing particularly special about that; in fact the manufacturing component was a little weak compared with most recent months. Additionally, the July numbers were revised slightly (not significantly) higher and lower for each, respectively. As a result, manufacturing is now only 0.4% above February 2020, and total production is down -1.3% compared with just before the pandemic: Needless to say, this is very much at odds with the continuing very positive ISM manufacturing index readings which we have gotten every month this year. The Fed regional manufacturing indexes as well as the Chicago PMI also remain positive, so I am not terribly concerned about one poor month (which needless to say may also be revised!).This morning’s report is probably going to prompt some scary downward revisions to forecasts of Q3 GDP, which will be released one week from Thursday. But when we look at quarter-over-quarter numbers, industrial production is still up 1.1% from Q2 of this year. In the below graph, I’ve subtracted that number so that it norms to zero, to compare that increase with the past 30+ years:As you can see, while it isn’t the strongest reading, it is higher than most quarters during the 3 expansions since 1989, and is nowhere near recessionary. So, while we’re almost certainly going to see a sharp *deceleration* from the blockbuster last several quarters in q/q GDP next week, in absolute terms I do not see any particular cause for concern.
October Philly Fed Mfg Index: "Current Indicators Remain Positive" - The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to the direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 23.8, up 4.2 from last month's 30.7. The 3-month moving average came in at 24.6, up from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 24.2, up 4.2 from the previous month's 20.The 23.8 headline number came in below the 25 forecast at Investing.com.Here is the introduction from the survey:Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for general activity declined, the new orders index improved, and the shipments index held steady. Both price indexes remained elevated. The survey’s future indexes suggest that the surveyed firms remained generally optimistic about growth over the next six months. (Full Report)The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the two 21st century recessions. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average, which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see periods of contraction in 2011, 2012, and 2015, and a shallower contraction in 2013. The contraction due to COVID-19 is clear in 2020.
Jobless claims show renewed downward trend; still some slack in continued claims 0 Jobless claims show renewed downward trend; still some slack in continued claims -- Jobless claims declined 6,000 this week to 290,000, yet another pandemic low. The 4 week average also declined 15,250 to 319,750, also another pandemic low: With the exception of the last few years of the last expansion, this level of weekly initial claims would be very low for any point in the last 50 years, and the 4 week average would be average for late in an expansion: Continuing claims declined 124,000 to 2,481,000, also a new pandemic low: This level would also be normal for the middle of the last few expansions: Except for the last 2.5 years of the last expansion, continuing claims never dropped meaningfully below 2,000,000 at any point since the 1974 oil embargo. Finally, here is the YoY% change of continuing claims: Based on the YoY change, it appears that the complete nationwide phase-out of all emergency pandemic benefits last month may be a cause for the decline in continued claims since then. With this week’s confirming data, it appears that we have begun a renewed downward trend. Layoffs are at levels typically seen after very sustained expansions. But there is still some slack in workers who have not yet found new jobs, as evidenced in continuing claims. I suspect we will continue to see that number decrease. The one big surprise is that all of this is happening while we still have about 80,000 new cases, and over 1600 deaths, of COVID daily.
The Amazing Explosion of New Businesses Continues as Americans Strike Out on their Own --Wolf Richter: New business formations, based on applications for an Employer Identification Number (EIN) with the IRS, exploded in June and July last year, then zigzagged up and down, and then this year exploded again and remained far above the historical range.In September, 431,381 EIN applications were filed with the IRS, 49% above September 2019, and at the same red-hot level as September last year, according to data released by the Census Bureau today. For the first nine months of the year, EIN applications were up by 58% from the same period in 2019:The historic high level of new business formations every month is part of the bizarre puzzle that this economy has become: The strange phenomenon of labor shortages, the enormous stimulus payments that went out, the federal unemployment payments that are now ending, the $800 billion in forgivable PPP loans that went to just about everyone last year and earlier this year, the 3.2 million people who still haven’t returned to the labor force….Last year and earlier this year, there were suspicions that EIN applications were spiking because fraudsters were creating businesses to get their hands on these forgivable PPP loans. But an EIN wasn’t required for PPP loans. Businesses had to have been around for a while to qualify. And the PPP ended in May. Yet business applications have continued to be sky-high every month since then.The Census Bureau removed from these EIN numbers those applications that were unrelated to typical business formations, such as for tax liens, estates, trusts, etc.Most new businesses will create a job for the owner and maybe for a few other people and never become large employers. Using the information in the EIN application, the Census Bureau categorizes businesses with a high likelihood of creating a significant payroll as “High-Propensity of Planned Wages” business applications (HBA).In September, there were 145,628 EIN applications by businesses that the Census Bureau deemed to be HBAs, up 31% from September 2019. In the first nine months of this year, there were 1.40 million of these business applications, up 41% from the same period in 2019:
Chokepoint democracy: Workers capitalize on global system weak spots - For the first time in a very long time, workers in a variety of industries are showing renewed political and economic power as a variety of causes have created a labor shortage. Strikes are spreading across the United States and include workers in (not surprisingly) health care, manufacturing (farm implements, food), food service, public transit, building trades, and coal mining. Perhaps the most visible strikers are the 60,000 who produce television shows and films who say they will walk off their jobs within the next week. (See here, here and here.) Others strikers around the world include delivery drivers in Britain and Brazil who have already struck or seem about to. Working conditions and pay are not the only issues. Italian port workers went on strike to protest mandatory vaccination requirements that include the use of a "Green Pass" to verify vaccination status. It's rumored that Southwest Airlines' operations were disrupted recently by a "sick out" by pilots to protest mandatory vaccination. While the world may lament the loss of new episodes of their favorites TV shows, what will grasp their attention far more is if the food, fuel and manufactured goods they rely on flow more slowly or stop arriving altogether for a time. The "just-in-time" inventory systems utilized by the world's manufacturers and retailers to reduce the cost of holding and storing inventory seemed like a good idea at the time they were implemented. Now, these systems are looking increasingly foolish and costly in the face of breakdowns in the world's far-flung supply chains. All of this adds up to increased power for workers along supply chains for critical goods. Like the coal miners of past, these workers have leverage against employers and government alike. One little known reason for this leverage is that large corporate makers of key supplies have concentrated manufacturing among a few large suppliers and/or in one country or region. Any disruption among those large suppliers or in a critical country or region (say, due to bad weather or a pandemic) can lead to worldwide shortages as has happened with both semiconductors and medical supplies and equipment. Those workers toiling where production and delivery occur are increasingly finding that they can exert greater control over their work environment and pay if they act in concert. Don't be surprised if many, many more workers across the world start to understand this power and initiate a new era that I've dubbed chokepoint democracy.'
The John Deere Strike: Organized Labor’s Turning Point? by Yves Smith --There’s a lot of excitement, at least among those of the pro-worker persuasion, about employees rejecting poorly paid jobs and oppressive bosses via not taking up open positions or demanding change via strikes. A partial list: Volvo. Kellogg’s. Frito-Lay. Nabisco. Alabama coal miners. Health care staffers in New York and Massachusetts, along with bus drivers and telecom workers. Even though they are highly visible signs that the serfs are rebelling, these labor actions are still a strong of one offs, By contrast, the pending strike at John Deere has the potential to be a turning point, a seminal event on the order of Reagan breaking the air traffic controllers’ union. The reason the John Deere strike could be a turning point, as we’ll explain further, is that the workers there hold an exceptionally strong set of cards, the most important being a hefty strike fund and many if not most workers also having ample savings. By contrast, Deere is plenty vulnerable.But first we’ll take a mini detour to explain how rule by extractive MBAs has so hollowed out companies that the combination of Covid-induced supply chain stresses and uppity workers is more than their fragile operations can readily tolerate. […Now to Deere. Deere is oddly acting as if it needs to win some sort of popularity contest, when what matters is getting on a better footing with plant workers. A Deere PR salvo succeeded in getting the Washington Post to act as its mouthpiece in misrepresenting worker earnings at $60,000. They are actually typically $40,000. The biggest lie Deere told in coming up with this figure is acting as if its factory hands work 2200 hours a year. They never do due to regular and long shutdowns.Jalopnik described how Deere plays games with mainly unattainable incentives, much like the driver who hangs a carrot in front of his horse, just out of reach:Deere did hedge that the wage figures it released were based on “CIPP 120 percent.” CIPP stands for Continuous Improvement Pay Plan, which is a team-based incentive pay program that only sees workers gaining wages based on an entir e department’s productivity when compared to quotas set by the company.The quota is upped every six months, Furman reports, whether or not those quotas have been met. And even if you do get close — by hitting 115 percent of your CIPP quota — your money doesn’t go to you. It goes into a reserve fund. If your department doesn’t hit quota six months from now, Deere can take money out of that reserve fund. And if you’re a low-level employee, you’re not getting CIPP money at all.(And yes, when pandemic-related supply chain issues slowed down production causing many to miss CIPP targets, Deere didn’t budge, and workers lost pay.)
Why are cops afraid of vaccines? - Oh look. The city and the police department are suing each other. So let’s talk about the police. What is the most important activity performed by the police? The reason for the roll calls and the paperwork. What does everyone, including the police themselves, agree that police are supposed to do? Fight crime, right? This crime-fighting business involves danger, does it not? Puts police in perilous situations. Running into a dark alley where there might be a bad guy with a gun. Charging up the dark stairs of a six-flat. Going into the foul, overheated apartment of some crazy person who might come at you with a razor. A dangerous job. If I say, “Chicago cops put their lives on the line every day,” I don’t expect John Catanzara to jump onto YouTube to insist, “No we don’t!” So what’s with the vaccine hesitancy? You’ll run into a burning building but won’t get the shots that soon every 5-year-old will need in order to go to school? You let the city tell you what kind of hat to wear, but helping fight the plague that has killed 700,000 Americans is a bridge too far. Why? OK, I know the answer: Chicago cops don’t want to be told to take the vaccine because they’re Red State white bread Trumpies huddled in their walled enclaves in Blue State multicultural Chicago. Not taking the vaccine is the middle finger to science and authority that, being cops, they just can’t deny themselves. It’s their William Wallace cry of freedom. COVID denialism is holy writ liturgy established by their fearful leader in early 2020, and it now has become a cargo cult show of loyalty and faith until his triumphant return. But shouldn’t professionalism at some point kick in? Shouldn’t the serve-and-protect thing take over? I just read the Chicago Police Code of Conduct — somebody should — and refusing the vaccine violates about six different bullet points. It doesn’t directly say, “Take the damn vaccine.” But close. Is this issue really that complicated? “Serve and protect,” right? It’s on the cars. And if you are puffing your hot COVID breath in the face of the senior citizen you’re helping to the ambulance, well, you’re kinda falling down on the protecting part, yes? Here’s the kicker. Not only does taking the vaccine serve and protect the public, but it is a lifesaver for the police themselves. Consider two risks affecting cops: bullets and COVID. Five times as many officers, nationwide, have died of COVID since the pandemic began than have been shot to death. Were the choice getting the vaccine or wearing a bulletproof vest, if only one could be chosen, the rational cop would go for the vaccine every time. “The rational cop.” Ah, ahahahahaha. I crack myself up sometimes.
The removal of Jefferson’s statue is a gift to the political right - New York City will remove from City Hall a nearly two-hundred-year-old statue of Thomas Jefferson, allegedly on the grounds that the author of the immortal phrase, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,” owned slaves.The removal of the Jefferson statue was ratified unanimously Monday afternoon at a hastily scheduled hearing of an 11-person committee called the Public Design Commission. The hitherto obscure committee is hand-picked and appointed by Mayor Bill de Blasio. The so-called “hearing” was a sham. The decision had already been taken. A wooden crate had even been constructed especially for the purpose of remanding Jefferson to the New York Historical Society “on long term loan,” an Orwellian expression for mothballing. The Commission did not formally commit to that destination at its Monday hearing, and there are also calls to junk the sculpture outright. “I think it should be put in storage somewhere, destroyed or whatever,” said Democratic State Assemblyman Charles Barron in testimony to the commission. The Jefferson statue, which has stood at New York City Hall since 1834, is the original plaster model used for the bronze sculpture Thomas Jefferson in the Capitol Rotunda, in Washington D.C., created by the world-renowned French sculptor, David D’Angers (1788-1856). Both statues were donated to the American people by Uriah Phillips Levy (1792-1862), the country’s first Jewish naval officer. With his gifts, Levy wished to recognize Jefferson, who had died seven years earlier, for his role in preventing the establishment of a state religion in the young republic.It must be stressed that this is not an attack on Jefferson the individual, who has been dead for 195 years and will not be disturbed by the machination of de Blasio and the New York Democrats. It is an attack on the principles that Jefferson represented, above all else the Declaration of Independence’s proclamation of universal human equality. In this sense, the attack on Jefferson only undermines the foundations on which the defense of democracy depends in the face of the growing threat of fascism, while simultaneously providing political cover for Trump and the Republican Party, who posture as the defenders of the legacy of 1776, even as they plot democracy’s overthrow.
Oklahoma woman convicted of manslaughter, sentenced to four years in prison for miscarriage -On October 5 an Oklahoma woman was found guilty of first-degree manslaughter of a non-viable fetus, after suffering a miscarriage at 17 weeks, and sentenced to four years in prison. Brittney Poolaw, 21, was charged with manslaughter on March 17, 2020 after she went to the Comanche County Hospital to seek help. She has remained incarcerated since her arrest over 18 months ago, not being able to pay the $20,000 bail set by the court. The fetus tested positive for methamphetamine, amphetamine, and another drug in the liver and brain, according to an obstetrician-gynecologist. According to the US National Institute of Health’s National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), research indicates methamphetamine is associated with significant pregnancy complications such as “increased rates of premature delivery [and] placental abruption (separation of the placental lining from the uterus).” However, the doctor who did the autopsy on the fetus says the drugs may not have killed the fetus. A medical examiner found a congenital abnormality, placental abruption and chorioamnionitis, where bacteria infect the membranes that surround the fetus, and did not list the use of controlled substances as the cause of the miscarriage. Notably, Oklahoma’s murder and manslaughter laws do not apply to miscarriages that occur before 20 weeks, nor does Oklahoma law outlaw abortions. Medical viability of a fetus, where its survival rate is above 50 percent, is at around 25-26 weeks, according to the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology, while the Supreme Court in Roe v.Wade established legal viability at 28 weeks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defines fetuses delivered before 20 weeks as miscarriages. In direct contradiction to the medical and legal facts, prosecutors nonetheless filed manslaughter charges against Poolaw. The jury found her guilty after less than three hours of deliberation. The detective in the case stated that “when she found out she was pregnant she didn’t know if she wanted the baby or not. She said she wasn’t familiar with how or where to get an abortion.” It is unknown whether or not Poolaw in fact took methamphetamine in order to induce an abortion, and her own statement to police indicated she was unsure whether or not she wanted to keep the pregnancy.
Front-line health care worker shortage due to vax mandates, burnout -- Hospital staffing shortages due to COVID-19 vaccination disputes have continued across the U.S. this month, leaving patients untreated amid surges of the virus’ delta variant. Health care workers against vaccine mandates have stood their ground, despite the fact that millions of Americans have been safely vaccinated against coronavirus with a Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson shot at the hands of colleagues in their field. In upstate New York, several maternity staff members resigned from Lewis County General Hospital, worsening an existing shortage and forcing the hospital to stop delivering babies and potentially curtail services in five other departments. “The number of resignations received leaves us no choice but to pause delivering babies at Lewis County General Hospital,” CEO Gerald Cayer said at a September news conference. “It is my hope that the (state) Department of Health will work with us in pausing the service rather than closing the maternity department.” “Essential health services are not at risk because of the mandate,” Cayer added. “The mandate ensures we will have a healthy workforce and we are not responsible for (causing COVID-19) transmission in or out of our facilities.” More than 150 Houston Methodist hospital system workers were fired or resigned in June over a vaccine mandate after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order banning any entity from implementing mandates in the state, according to Houston Public Media. Jennifer Bridges, a registered nurse in Houston who said she didn’t have confidence in the vaccine’s safety, has pledged to take the matter to the U.S. Supreme Court if necessary.In Michigan, approximately 400 workers walked off the job at Henry Ford Health System at the beginning of the month rather than take a required COVID-19 vaccine, according to the Detroit Free Press and an additional 1,900 workers received exemptions from the health system’s vaccine requirement.
New York City Retirees Refusing to Eat the Medicare Advantage Dogfood - Droves of city government retirees are preparing to pay thousands annually to keep their existing health insurance rather than taking a chance on a new cost-cutting plan. All of the city’s quarter-million retirees and their dependents will be automatically enrolled in the new health insurance program, known as the Retiree Health Alliance, unless they opt out by the end of October, under a deal struck by Mayor Bill de Blasio and municipal labor unions to save on spiraling health care costs. Two lawsuits to be heard in court Wednesday — one filed by frustrated city government retirees — seek to block the move. The switch to the Alliance, a partnership created by EmblemHealth and Empire Blue Cross Blue Shield, is set to take effect Jan. 1. It moves retirees from traditional government-administered Medicare into a privately run system known as Medicare Advantage. For the first time, retired city workers will have to obtain prior authorization from their insurer for a host of procedures and equipment, instead of getting coverage automatically. Since New York Focus and THE CITY broke the news of the planned shift in April, retirees have voiced concerns that the new plan will saddle them with barriers to care, smaller networks and higher out-of-pocket costs. They say they haven’t received assurances that all aspects of their care will be covered under the new plan — even after repeated calls to a hotline set up by the Alliance. Those with health problems that require expensive treatments are especially worried. In an online survey conducted by the Organization of Public Service Retirees, a group formed in opposition to the Medicare Advantage proposal, 226 of 880 respondents said that they had called the hotline and been given incomplete or inaccurate information. Some 148 said they had called multiple times and been given contradictory information. Only 30 respondents said that they had been given clear and accurate information. “I’ve called at least five to ten times and nobody knew what to tell me,” said Lainie Kitt, who worked for the New York City Housing Authority for 30 years, and is currently being treated for mycosis fungoides, a form of lymphoma. “I get a different answer every time.”
New York City judge STOPS Long Island father from visiting his three-year-old daughter in Manhattan unless he gets the shot or has weekly COVID-19 tests -- A Long Island father is being refused the right to see his three-year-old daughter by a judge's ruling unless he gets the COVID-19 vaccine. The father, who has yet to be identified, is in a custody dispute with the child's mother, and until recently saw his daughter every other weekend. But Judge Matthew Cooper ruled he will be banned from seeing her unless he either gets the jab, or submits to weekly COVID testing. 'Here, in-person parental access by defendant is not in the child's best interests, and there are exceptional circumstances that support its suspension,' wrote Cooper, who is presiding over the pair's divorce and custody dispute. 'The dangers of voluntarily remaining unvaccinated during access with a child while the COVID-19 virus remains a threat to children's health and safety cannot be understated,' Cooper added. The family was not named in the ruling.
Alabama school district warns of food shortages, asks for parent help after deliveries fail Alexander City Schools has asked parents to start feeding their children breakfast at home or to send them to school with a snack because the district has not received food deliveries from their vendors. “We have taken action to open accounts with other vendors in an attempt to diversify our supply options,” officials said in a Facebook post on Saturday. “This is a situation that is frustrating for you as a parent, and for us as well as our ability to feed our students is being greatly impacted.”Alexander City had 2,870 students last school year, with 65% enrolled in free- and reduced-price meals, according to data from the Alabama State Department of Education.Alabama schools continue to face food shortages as the pandemic impacts the workforce needed to serve and deliver meals, as well as supplies of food and packaging materials. Every school district in the state is currently facing these shortages to varying degrees, according to the department of education.The United States Department of Agriculture announced Sept. 29 that it will invest $1.5 billion this year to help schools feed students. However, information on how those funds will be allocated has not yet been given to states. “As with all funding received, once directives and guidance is provided by USDA, we will follow those guidelines and disburse the funds quickly,” said Anjelice Lowe, Child Nutrition Programs Director for the department of education.Unlike in other states, Alabama still has food distributors servicing schools, according to Lowe. She says the department will “exhaust all efforts” before closing a school due to shortages.But some districts, including Dothan City Schools, have advised parents to prepare f or a possible shift to remote learning due to their food supply.
California public schools face massive budget cuts due to COVID-19 pandemic - School districts across California are confronting the prospect of mass layoffs due to budget shortfalls accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding formulas are based on average daily attendance. While Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom has repeatedly bragged that public schools in the state have remained open, enrollment has fallen precipitously and chronic absenteeism in California schools has skyrocketed due to the pandemic, pushing districts to the point of collapse. Statewide enrollment in K-12 education declined by 160,000 in the 2020-21 school year, or nearly three percent. This translates to millions of dollars cut to already strained school districts and the possibility of mass layoffs for chronically understaffed schools. In September, Newsom staged a visit to Melrose Leadership Academy in Oakland to brag about his COVID-19 strategy. He stated, “We implemented the most robust school reopening and safety strategy in the entire country, and now California’s students are back in the classroom and schools are remaining open at nation-leading rates.” Despite Newsom’s assurances, Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) reported 23 cases of students contracting COVID-19, four staff cases, and four classes fully quarantining in the last week alone. Chronic absenteeism has skyrocketed compared to pre-pandemic figures, with OUSD reporting a rate of 37 percent chronically absent among K-5 students, compared to 14 percent before the pandemic. Three years ago, OUSD initiated the “Citywide Plan” which closed several schools and cut tens of millions of dollars from the budget. Now, with declining attendance, the budget shortfall will be greater, with a deficit of $58 million projected for the 2022-23 school year. San Francisco Unified School District (SFUSD) also faces budget shortfalls as a result of a 6.6 percent decline in enrollment. A projected $100 million shortfall may result in the loss of 1,000 jobs. SFUSD also faces chronic absenteeism, with African American, Pacific Islander, and homeless students particularly hard hit. Students who do attend school risk their health; since August 16, when schools reopened in San Francisco, 393 students and staff have become infected with COVID-19. The two largest California school districts are also in crisis. Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) has lost 27,000 students since last year and presently has 893 active COVID-19 cases. Enrollment at San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD) is down by 7,500 students in the last four years.
Texas boy dies after COVID-19 infection turned into severe gangrene --Ten-year-old Zyrin Foots from Huntsville, Texas died on October 13 after contracting COVID-19. He was one of the more than 5,000 US children since the beginning of the pandemic to develop Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children or MIS-C, a condition only found among children who are exposed to the deadly coronavirus. The effects of MIS-C are horrific. The child’s brain, kidneys, eyes and other organs swell up and malfunction. “Children with MIS-C may have fever and various symptoms, including abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired,” writes the Texas Department of State Health Services. For Zyrin, the inflammation was worst in his heart. As blood ceased to flow through his arms and legs, he developed a severe case of gangrene, rotting the flesh on all four of his limbs. He was placed on life support on September 30, but continued to deteriorate. Photos on the family’s GoFundMe page show that the gangrene in Zyrin’s legs became extremely severe, with multiple gaping wounds that appear to be several inches across. Zyrin’s mother Amber faced an unfathomable decision: either have doctors amputate her son’s arms and legs, winning Zyrin a 25 percent chance of survival as a quadruple amputee; or allow him to be taken off life support. Amber had already lost one child. As her sister Ashley Engmann explained in a fund appeal, “Amber was in an accident 8 years ago. She was hit by a truck when she was 6 months pregnant, lost her 3rd son, Zekiah, and nearly died. She was in a coma for 4 months and took a couple of years to recover. Zyrin is her eldest son. Her second son, Zaiden, is the only one left. I am reaching out because we have no way of paying for everything that is to come. My sister is permanently disabled and there isn’t any life insurance.”
Parents Are Suing Schools for Throwing Their Kids in a ‘COVID Snakepit’ Vice Parents are suing school districts that don’t have mask mandates, claiming that their policies are putting kids at risk and even directly contributing to them contracting COVID-19. And in true Wisconsin fashion, two parents in the Badger State are doing so with the help of a brewery and its super PAC. Gina Kildahl, whose son attends elementary school in Fall Creek, filed a lawsuit on Monday alleging that the school’s “reckless refusal to implement reasonable COVID-19 measures” led to her 7-year-old son getting infected already this school year, even though he was wearing a mask. The lawsuit claims that by not requiring all students to wear masks, Kildahl’s local school board “threw students into a COVID-19 snakepit.” Kildahl’s lawsuit follows one filed last week by Shannon Jensen, whose children attend schools in a district near Milwaukee. Neither of the districts being sued requires masks. In March, the conservative Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down an emergency order from Democratic Gov. Tony Evers that included a statewide mask mandate; Evers said in August he had no plans to issue another one. While schools in some of Wisconsin’s largest, more liberal cities such as Milwaukee and Madison now require masks, the decision has been left up to local governments and school boards, which means that more conservative areas are less likely to require masks. More than 57 percent of the state is fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Wisconsin managed to avoid the worst of the Delta variant earlier this summer, but hospitalizations have still increased to levels not seen since vaccines became widely available. The lawsuits, if successful, would force school districts to implement masking requirements in accordance with recommendations from the CDC. Jensen’s lawsuit says her oldest son contracted COVID-19 after a student he sat next to came to school two consecutive days while being symptomatic and maskless. The School District of Waukesha’s “refusal to implement reasonable Covid-19 mitigation strategies, not only affected our immediate family, but if we had been notified sooner of my oldest son's close contact with someone who was diagnosed with Covid-19, we could have prevented possible further community spread of the virus,” the lawsuit says.
Videos capture extent of student brawls at Queens high school - They’re reading, writing, and roughhousing at a highly regarded Queens high school — according to more than a dozen videos of students brawling in hallways, the cafeteria and outside, insiders confirmed. The 14 clips of wild fistfights at or near Benjamin Cardozo High School on 223rd Street feature both girls and boys. Crowds of noisy classmates surround the combatants, egging them on.“Fight! Fight!” a boy is heard shouting as two girls face off, before finally swinging at each other in a frenzy.In one fight close to the nearby playground of PS 213, video shows a teen thrown to the ground, trying to shield his head from further kicks and blows.Footage in front of shops on Springfield Avenue near Horace Harding Expressway shows a boy knocked flat onto his back, motionless.Fight videos were taken down from the Instagram account @cardozohighschoolfights after The Post asked the NYPD about them. Two showing fights that happened off-site remain online, including one warning of “graphic or violent content.”
More than 20K public school staffers across NY aren't fully certified - More than 20,000 public school employees across the state — including nearly 4,000 city staffers —are currently working without being fully certified, The Post has learned. The New York State Department of Education initiated a new program last year that temporarily relaxed certification requirements to account for coronavirus disruptions. NYSED’s Emergency COVID-19 Certificate allows applicants to “work in New York State public schools or districts for two years while taking and passing the required exam(s) for the certificate or extension sought,” according to the agency’s website. Previously, aspiring educators and other employees had to complete their certification entirely before working with students. NYSED officials stressed Wednesday that participants in the program only lack completion of certification exams and have satisfied all other prerequisites. The arrangement was extended last month for an additional year to September of 2022. According to NYSED, 21,033 teachers have sought the accommodation since May 2020 and the number continues to grow. Of those, 3,727 were reported to the state as working in city Department of Education schools last year.
Texas official tells “terrified” educators that they must teach “opposing views” on the Holocaust - On October 8 at a meeting with teachers to discuss the implications of Texas’ recently passed right-wing attack on freedom of speech and thought in schools, an official with the Carroll Independent School District (ISD) in the Dallas-area town of Southlake, responding to a teacher’s statement that “we’re all just really terrified,” provided educators with an example of how they should seek to conform with state bill HB3979.“Make sure that if, if you have a book on the Holocaust, that you have one that has an opposing, that has other perspectives,” she advised. The audience, clearly stunned, gasped. One teacher countered, “How do you oppose the Holocaust?! What?!” Gina Peddy, the executive director of Curriculum and Instruction, then warned, “Believe me. That’s come up.” She added that alongside Carroll ISD, which serves about 7,745 students in a well-to-do area of a much larger metroplex, other districts were facing the same thing.After Peddy’s remarks hit the media and provoked outrage, the superintendent posted a statement on the ISD’s Facebook page saying that the curriculum director’s statement was not meant to “convey that the Holocaust was anything less than a terrible event.” But another spokesperson for the district, Karen Fitzgerald, told NBC News that administrators were just trying to help teachers “provide balanced perspectives not just during classroom instruction, but in the books that are available to students in class during free time.” While insisting that Carroll ISD would not mandate the removal of certain books, she said that educators who are unsure about a specific title should consult with administrators about “appropriate next steps.”Despite the administration’s attempts to downplay the implications of Peddy’s remarks, what the curriculum director said on October 8 exposes the far-right character of the assault on public education spearheaded by the Republican Party, which is taking advantage of the Democratic Party’s racialization of the school system—also politically rotten and dangerous—to legitimize fascist views.
Pediatric groups declare national emergency over children's mental health - A group of pediatric organizations have declared a national emergency in children's mental health coinciding with alarming new emergency room statistics released Tuesday. The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry (AACAP) and Children's Hospital Association urged lawmakers in a statement to act swiftly to address the crisis."Children's mental health is suffering," AAP President Lee Savio Beers said in the statement. "Young people have endured so much throughout this pandemic and while much of the attention is often placed on its physical health consequences, we cannot overlook the escalating mental health crisis facing our patients. Today's declaration is an urgent call to policymakers at all levels of government — we must treat this mental health crisis like the emergency it is." The statement from the pediatric organizations draws on statistics from March through October 2020, which showed that the percentage of emergency room visits for mental health emergencies among children ages 5-11 rose by 24 percent — and by 31 percent for children ages 12-17. The same study showed a more than 50 percent increase in emergency room visits for suspected suicide attempts among girls between the ages of 12-17. "We were concerned about children's emotional and behavioral health even before the pandemic," AACAP President Gabrielle Carlson said in the statement. "The ongoing public health emergency has made a bad situation worse. We are caring for young people with soaring rates of depression, anxiety, trauma, loneliness, and suicidality that will have lasting impacts on them, their families, their communities, and all of our futures. We cannot sit idly by. This is a national emergency, and the time for swift and deliberate action is now."
Biden Tells House Progressives Free Community College Nixed from Reconciliation Bill: Report -President Biden told House progressives on Tuesday that his proposal for free community college would not be included in the final reconciliation package being hammered out by Democrats, multiple sources told CNN.Additionally, Biden said the current child tax credit will be extended by one year instead of being made permanent, and will be means-tested as proposed by Senator Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.). Proposed funding for home-care services for the elderly will also be reduced from $400 billion to below $250 billion.A key priority for congressional progressives — an expansion of Medicare to include vision, dental, and hearing services — will remain in the reconciliation bill, Biden reportedly said.The Biden administration initially proposed a $3.5 trillion spending package earlier this year to be passed in the Senate via budget-reconciliation rules, meaning the package would need support of a simple majority. However, Democrats need all 50 of their Senators to support the bill, and Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have expressed opposition to various components of the package and to the overall price tag.Biden conceded on Friday that the plan would likely cost less and hinted that free community college could be dropped from the package.“To be honest with you, we’re probably not going to get $3.5 trillion this year; we’re going to get something less than that,” Biden said at a child care center in Hartford, Conn., adding later, “I don’t know that I can get it done, but I also had proposed free community college.”
Chicago museum fires all of its mostly white female, financially well-off docents for lack of diversity: report - The Art Institute of Chicago fired all of its trained volunteers and guides last month, who were mostly older white women, to diversify its team. “We were surprised, we were disappointed,” Gigi Vaffis, president of the docent council, said in an interview with radio station WBEZ of the firings. “There is an army of very highly skilled docents that are willing and ready and able to continue with arts education.” The Art Institute used to have more than 100 docents, 82 of whom were active, until an executive director of learning and engagement, Veronica Stein, sent an email on Sept. 3 firing them all, the Wall Street Journal reported.. Docents are trained volunteers who lead tours of museums, and at the Art Institute, they averaged 15 years of unpaid service. The firings were apparently sparked by the fact that most of the docent staff was composed of older white, financially well-off women, the outlet reported. Stein said that the museum needed to take a new path “in a way that allows community members of all income levels to participate, responds to issues of class and income equity, and does not require financial flexibility.” The fired docents were offered a two-year free pass to the museum as gratitude for their previous service. The institute is one of America’s oldest and largest museums, with its docent program launching in 1961 as part of an initiative of the Woman’s Board and the Junior League of Chicago. NYC Fentanyl Deaths Up 55% During Pandemic - New York City residents have increasingly succumbed to overdoses on synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. These deaths have soared by more than 55 percent in the 12 months ending March, compared to the same period the year before.That means 1,778 died of this cause in the city by March 2021, compared with 1,145 by March 2020, based on estimates from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that account for missing data. The period aligns with the months of severe measures imposed by the city and state to curb the spread of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus.Deaths involving synthetic opioids accounted for nearly 80 percent of fatal drug overdoses in the city.The city has struggled with an opioid epidemic for years, responding by expanding access to treatment, drugs such as methadone and buprenorphine that make withdrawal easier, as well as overdose reversal drug naloxone. The state recently decriminalized possession or sale of hypodermic needles and syringes. It then ordered the NYPD to stop intervening when they see somebody with a needle, “even when it contains residue of a controlled substance,” the order said, according to the New York Post.
Aspirin lowers risk of COVID: New findings support preliminary Israeli trial - The treatment reduced the risk of reaching mechanical ventilation by 44%. ICU admissions were lower by 43%, and an overall in-hospital mortality saw a 47% decrease. Over-the-counter aspirin could protect the lungs of COVID-19 patients and minimize the need for mechanical ventilation, according to new research at the George Washington University. The team investigated more than 400 COVID patients from hospitals across the United States who take aspirin unrelated to their COVID disease, and found that the treatment reduced the risk of several parameters by almost half: reaching mechanical ventilation by 44%, ICU admissions by 43%, and overall in-hospital mortality by 47%. “As we learned about the connection between blood clots and COVID-19, we knew that aspirin – used to prevent stroke and heart attack – could be important for COVID-19 patients,” said Dr. Jonathan Chow of the study team. “Our research found an association between low-dose aspirin and decreased severity of COVID-19 and death.” Low dose aspirin is a common treatment for anyone suffering from blood clotting issues or in danger of stroke, including most people who had a heart attack or a myocardial infarction. Although affecting the respiratory system, the coronavirus has been associated with small blood vessel clotting, causing tiny blockages in the pulmonary blood system, leading to ARDS - acute respiratory distress syndrome. Israeli researchers reached similar results in a preliminary trial at the Barzilai Medical Center in March. In addition to its effect on blood clots, they found that aspirin carried immunological benefits and that the group taking it was 29% less likely to become infected with the virus in the first place. “Aspirin is low cost, easily accessible and millions are already using it to treat their health conditions,” said Chow. “Finding this association is a huge win for those looking to reduce risk from some of the most devastating effects of COVID-19.”
Sex of the fetus influences the mother’s response to Covid-19 infection, new research shows – STAT - In April 2020, as SARS-CoV-2 was first beginning to spread through New England, researchers at two hospitals in Boston — Massachusetts General and Brigham and Women’s — began attending deliveries in the Covid units to collect blood and placenta samples from pregnant patients who’d caught the dangerous new infectious disease. That biorepository, which has since grown to house samples from more than 1,000 people, including dozens who received either the Moderna or Pfizer Covid shots, is now helping to answer important questions about the response to the vaccines and coronavirus infection during pregnancy.In two studies published Tuesday in Science Translational Medicine, the Boston-based research teams found that pregnant and lactating women mount robust antibody responses to both vaccination and infection. The encouraging data also came with some twists that offer intriguing new clues to one of the pandemic’s enduring mysteries: why Covid-19 hits male adults, children, and infants harder than females.“What’s striking here is that the mothers who are carrying male babies have much lower levels of antibodies to the coronavirus,” said Akiko Iwasaki, a virologist and immunologist at Yale University who was not involved in the study. “What’s interesting about that is it means that the sex of the baby can dictate how the mother responds to a viral infection.”Since the earliest days of the pandemic, epidemiological studies have pointed to sex differences in Covid-19 patients; males get more severely ill and die more often than females. For the past year and a half, scientists like Iwasaki have been trying to tease out why that is. Last August, her team published a study showing that men and women mount very different immune responses. Males’ defenses tend to have a slow ramp-up, but then produce more pro-inflammatory molecules, which can lead to a dangerous over-reactionknown as a “cytokine storm.”In one of the new studies, the Boston researchers examined maternal blood, cord blood, and the placentas from 38 pregnant Covid patients. The placenta is the life support system for a fetus, providing oxygen and nutrients; it grows from the developing embryo’s cells, not the mother’s. The researchers found that in response to Covid infection, male placentas switched on more pro-inflammatory immune activation genes than placentas supporting female fetuses.“The mechanism must be very different, but this is all sort of consistent with what we found in adults,” said Iwasaki. “So this may be a sort of male-intrinsic response to the virus.”
New Delta descendant may be more infectious than its ancestor | Financial Times - Scientists are anxiously tracking a descendant of the Delta coronavirus, which is responsible for a growing proportion of Covid-19 cases in the UK, and could be more infectious than the original Delta variant, they say. This AY.4.2 subvariant has only recently been recognised by virologists who follow the genetic evolution of Delta but it already accounts for almost 10 per cent of UK cases. Its prevalence is increasing rapidly, though not as fast as the original Delta variant when it reached Britain from India early this year.Two experts — Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridge, and Francois Balloux, director of the University College London Genetics Institute — said AY.4.2 seemed to be 10 to 15 per cent more transmissible than the original Delta variant, which has come to dominate Covid cases around the world.If the preliminary evidence is confirmed, AY.4.2 may be the most infectious coronavirus strain since the pandemic started, said Balloux. “But we have to be careful at this stage,” he added. “Britain is the only country in which it has taken off in this way and I still would not rule out its growth being a chance demographic event. AY.4.2 “is likely to be elevated to the rank of ‘Variant under Investigation’,” Balloux said, at which point the World Health Organization would assign it a Greek letter under its naming system.Some commentators in the US linked the emergence of AY.4.2 with the very high levels of Covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK — far above those recorded elsewhere in western Europe.The UK on Monday announced a daily total of 49,156 people testing positive for Covid, the largest number since July. The average over the past seven days was 16 per cent higher than the previous week.“We will obviously keep a close watch on cases,” said the prime minister’s spokesperson. “We always knew the coming months would be challenging . . .The vaccination programme will continue to be our first line of defence, along with new treatments, testing and public health advice.”Scott Gottlieb, former US Food and Drug Administration commissioner, tweeted on Sunday: “We need urgent research to figure out if this ‘delta plus’ is more transmissible, has partial immune evasion.”UK experts said research was already under way. Barrett added: “While it [AY.4.2] may make things more difficult, it doesn’t by itself explain the recent high UK caseload.”Coronavirus is more prevalent in Britain mainly because of reduced emphasis on measures such as mask-wearing, social distancing, ventilation and working from home than in neighbouring countries.Use of the phrase “Delta plus” has caused much confusion and should be avoided, Barrett added. Commentators have already applied the term to previous descendants of Delta with mutations different from those on AY.4.2. AY.4.2 is one of 45 sub-lineages descending from Delta that have been recorded around the world. It carries two characteristic mutations in the spike protein with which the virus infects human cells, called Y145H and A222V.
COVID-19: New, infectious strain of Delta variant detected in the US -- A new sub-lineage of the highly contagious Delta variant that is spreading throughout the UK has been detected in the United States, health officials said Wednesday. AY.4.2 is being closely monitored in the UK after British health officials revealed that the new variant — reported to be 10 to 15 percent more transmissible that Delta — had been linked to a growing number of COVID-19 infections there. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, confirmed during a COVID-19 briefing Wednesday that AY.4.2 has been found in the US. Walensky said the new variant, which she acknowledge has “drawn some attention in recent days,” has not been linked to any clusters within the country. “We have, on occasion, identified this sub-lineage here in the United States, but not with recent increased frequency or clustering to date,” Walensky said. “At this time, there is no evidence that the sub-lineage AY.4.2 impacts the effectiveness of our current vaccines or therapeutics and we will continue to follow.”
Politics is derailing a crucial debate over the immunity you get from recovering from Covid-19 — Among scientists, there’s little debate: People who get sick with Covid-19 develop at least some protection against being infected in the future. But exactly how much protection they have, and how long it lasts, are the subjects of the country’s latest Covid-19 controversy. For the past month, university employees, professional athletes, and conservative lawmakers across the country have argued they should be exempted from increasingly strict vaccine mandates because, scientifically speaking, they don’t need them: They’re already protected by their body’s own immune response. This debate, however, is decidedly different from other political fights that have undermined the U.S. coronavirus response. Unlike the conspiracy-riddled arguments about hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin, the concept of natural immunity has a rational basis and data to support it. Like the other debates, though, it has devolved into partisan bickering, highlighting how the state of American politics has ruined the country’s scientific process and made nuanced debates all but impossible. “It’s hard to know where the data will finally land, and it’s hard to know where the shouting will land,” said Wendy Parmet, a Northeastern University law professor who has written extensively about the legality of government-imposed quarantines and vaccine mandates. “People on the right scream, so people on the left say no. We’re in this horrible, awful feedback loop of vitriol right now.” There’s still no scientific consensus about the exact strength or durability of the natural immunity a person gains when they recover from Covid-19, or how much it varies from person to another. In August, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a study showing that vaccine-derived immunity is more powerful than immunity derived from a previous coronavirus infection. Unvaccinated people who’ve previously had Covid-19 are twice as likely to be re-infected with the virus compared to those who are vaccinated and were previously sick, according to the data. It prompted Rochelle Walensky, the agency’s director, to plead with Americans: “If you have had Covid-19 before, please still get vaccinated.” Increasingly, though, researchers are acknowledging that the protection from natural immunity can be potent. Later in August, a study in Israel showed that people who have recovered from Covid-19 get symptomatic breakthrough infections 27 times less often than people who’ve been vaccinated, though experts cautioned that it is not conclusive, and could fail to account for external factors like underlying health conditions. It’s a basic principle of immunology that becoming sick with an infectious disease gives the body protection against the same disease in the future. People who have recovered from Covid-19 and therefore view vaccines as unnecessary should be taken seriously, not treated as conspiracists, he said.
Prior Covid Infection Is As Effective At Preventing The Virus As Vaccination, U.K. Study Suggests -People who previously contracted Covid-19 have about the same level of protection against getting the disease as those fully inoculated with two key vaccines, according to the findings of a study published Monday which adds to a growing and sometimes contradictory body of research on natural immunity. The study published by the U.K.’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) looked at more than 8,000 positive coronavirus tests across Britain between May and August, when delta was the dominant variant. During this time, people who had previously recovered from Covid-19 were about 71% less likely to contract it a second time, the analysis found. This represents about the same level of protection the study found was offered by two doses of the vaccines made by Pfizer and AstraZeneca, which have been prominently used in Europe’s inoculation drive. Two doses of the Pfizer vaccine reduced the risk of contracting Covid-19 by around 73% compared to 62% for AstraZeneca’s vaccine. The overlap in confidence intervals meant there “was no evidence” that full vaccination was any more effective in preventing Covid-19 than previous natural infection, the researchers concluded. The study, which has not been peer reviewed, found previous infection was similarly effective at preventing symptomatic Covid-19, but did not delve into the differences between natural infection and vaccines in staving off severe disease.
Without Covid-19 jab, ‘reinfection may occur every 16 months’ -- As Covid-19 infections surge in England, people are increasingly reporting catching Sars-CoV-2 for a second or even third time.New analysis has suggested that unvaccinated individuals should expect to be reinfected with Covid-19 every 16 months, on average.With winter approaching, scientists are warning that such reinfections could add to the burden on the NHS, some calling for the vaccination programme to be extended to all schoolchildren, including two doses for teenagers.“If you’ve got high-level prevalence, and frequent exposure to the virus, as you have in schools, you are going to see more and more people getting reinfected despite having been double vaccinated,” said Stephen Griffin, associate professor of virology at the University of Leeds.This time last year, the assumption was that although reinfections could occur this was relatively uncommon, with only two dozen or so recorded worldwide.We now know that natural immunity to Sars-CoV-2 begins to dwindle over time. One Danish study suggested that the under-65s had about 80% protection for at least six months, while the over-65s had only 47% protection.The arrival of the Delta variant has further complicated the situation.“Certainly in the healthcare workers that we’ve been studying, there are many people who had moderately decent levels of antibodies who have been, in some cases, previously infected and double-dose vaccinated, who have gone down with symptomatic infections,” said Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London.“I think it is far more common than the kinds of numbers we were used to before.”ONS data published on 6 October says that among 20,262 Britons who tested positive for Covid-19 between July 2020 and September 2021, there were 296 reinfections – defined as a new positive test 120 days or more after an initial first positive test – with an average (median) time of 203 days between positive tests.However, the reinfection risk appears to have been higher since May 2021 when Delta took over as the predominant variant.Further data from the US, where various states have now started tracking and reporting on reinfection rates, supports the idea there is a substantially higher risk of re-infection with Delta.In Oklahoma, which has a population of about 3.9 million, there were 5,229 reinfections reported during September (equivalent to a reinfection rate of 1,152 per 100,000) and reinfections have risen 350% since May.The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines reinfection as a lab-confirmed case of Covid-19 occurring 90 days or more after a previously lab-confirmed case.Dr Nisreen Alwan, associate professor in public health, at the University of Southampton, said: “With rising levels of Sars-CoV-2 infections in the UK, many of us are personally aware of children and adults who got reinfected, sometimes after a relatively short period from their first infection. “We still don’t know much about the risk factors for reinfection but the theoretical assumption that once all the young get it the pandemic will be over is becoming increasingly unlikely.”
Study: Evidence for Biological Age Acceleration and Telomere Shortening in COVID-19 Survivors MedRxIv. ABSTRACT: Introduction & Background: the SARS-CoV-2 infection determines the COVID19 syndrome characterized, in the worst cases, by severe respiratory distress, pulmonary and cardiac fibrosis, inflammatory cytokines release, and immunosuppression. This condition has led to the death of about 2.15% of the total infected world population so far. Among survivors, the presence of the so-called persistent post-COVID19 syndrome (PPCS) is a common finding. In patients who survived the SARS-CoV-2 infection, overt PPCS presents one or more symptoms such as fatigue, dyspnea, memory loss, sleep disorders, and difficulty concentrating. The pathophysiology of PPCS is currently poorly understood, and whether epigenetic mechanisms are involved in this process is unexplored. In this study, a cohort of 117 COVID19 survivors (post-COVID19) and 144 non-infected volunteers (COVID19-free) were analyzed using pyrosequencing of defined CpG islands previously identified as suitable for biological age determination. Besides, telomere length (TL) and ACE2 and DPP-4 receptor expression were determined. The results show a consistent biological age increase in the post-COVID19 population (58,44 ± 14,66 ChronoAge Vs. 67,18 ± 10,86 BioAge, P<0,0001), determining a DeltaAge acceleration of 10,45 ± 7,29 years (+5.25 years above range of normality) compared to 3,68 ± 8,17 years for the COVID19-free population (P<0,0001). A significant telomere shortening parallels this finding in the post-COVID19 cohort compared to COVID19-free subjects (post-COVID19 TL: 3,03 ± 2,39 Kb vs. COVID19-free: 10,67 ± 11,69 Kb; P<0,0001). Additionally, ACE2 expression was decreased in post-COVID19 patients compare to COVID19-free, while DPP-4 did not change. Conclusion In light of these observations, we hypothesize that some epigenetic alterations are associated with the post-COVID19 condition, particularly in the youngers (<60 years). Although the consequences of such modifications on the long-term clinical outcome remain unclear, this finding might help indicating a direction to investigate the pathophysiology at the onset of the persistent post-COVID19 syndrome.
Why “living with the virus” is a bankrupt strategy for fighting COVID-19 – We are holding a forum October 24 with leading scientists to discuss what is required to bring an end to the coronavirus pandemic. This requires a full-on political struggle against the policy pursued by the ruling elite all over the world, now under the rubric of “living with the virus,” although this was described last year as attaining “herd immunity.”The more primitive form of the “herd immunity” argument, put forward by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, British Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former US president Trump, is that nothing should be done to fight the virus that in any way interferes with, or even inconveniences, the profit-making of the capitalist class.A slightly more sophisticated argument has emerged in the wake of the development of multiple, highly effective vaccines, which goes something like this: the combination of the natural immunity conferred by contracting and surviving COVID-19 and the immunity conveyed by vaccination will make enough of the population immune that the virus will lack sufficient hosts to propagate itself. SARS-CoV-2 will then die a natural death.This ignores several inconvenient, but fully proven, scientific facts about the nature of SARS-CoV-2, and particularly the Delta variant—to say nothing of possible new variants—and the experiences derived from more than 18 months of efforts to combat the pandemic.Above all, there is the stark realization that it may not be possible to achieve the threshold for ending the pandemic despite a high level of population immunity from previous infections and vaccinations. The modeling done by Dr. Malgorzata Gasperowicz shows that a strategy based on vaccination only will lead to continued community transmission, because the transmissibility of the Delta variant is much greater than for the previous variants.This is being objectively verified now in real-world experience. Ireland has fully vaccinated 90 percent of its adult population, which means population immunity from COVID vaccines is at 75 percent.However, Ireland is seeing a rise in cases of COVID among the elderly. Professor Kingston Mills, an immunologist at Trinity College Dublin, told the Irish Times that breakthrough infections were occurring among those who received their doses more than six months ago. The current seven-day average is spiking again, with more than 1,600 infections per day.Additionally, data from SeroTracker, a global SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence dashboard built by researchers from Canada and the UK, found that by March 3, 2021, the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland ranged from 22.3 to 34.6 percent. Even taking into account that some survivors of COVID-19 were later vaccinated, so there is an overlap between infection totals and vaccination totals, the immunity in the population from both sources combined is considerable.Britain, of course, is being ravaged by the latest surge in COVID-19, accounting in the recent period for more daily cases than France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined.
FDA Approves Moderna, J&J Boosters And Releases Guidelines For "Mix And Match" -In defiance of recommendations from its own advisory panel, which said last week that the Moderna jab provides enough lasting protection to not necessitate a booster shot, the FDA has once again ignored "the science" and bowed to Biden Administration policy priorities by officially approving booster doses for the Moderna and J&J jabs.Those jabs will now join the Pfizer vaccine, which has already received booster emergency approval from the FDA.Furthermore, the FDA has also approved the mixing of vaccines for patients seeking booster shots, meaning somebody who originally got the Pfizer jab can get a Moderna booster and vice versa."Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration took action to expand the use of a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccines in eligible populations. The agency is amending the emergency use authorizations (EUA) for COVID-19 vaccines to allow for the use of a single booster dose..." the FDA said in a statement announcing the news.The FDA laid out a few small ground rules for the administration of booster doses, including the timeline and other factors.For starters, the use of a single booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine may be administered at least 6 months after completion of the primary series to individuals:
- 65 years of age and older
- 18 through 64 years of age at high risk of severe COVID-19
- 18 through 64 years of age with frequent institutional or occupational exposure toSARS-CoV-2
As for the J&J jab, the FDA said "the use of a single booster dose of the Janssen (Johnson and Johnson) COVID-19 Vaccine may be administered at least 2 months after completion of the single-dose primary regimen to individuals 18 years of age and older.And, adding more clarity to its Pfizer booster EUA, the FDA said a single booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 jab "may be administered at least 6 months after completion of the primary series to individuals 18 through 64 years of age with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2."The news is fantastic for Moderna, which previously faced the prospect that its jab might not be approved for booster doses, resulting in a major threat to the company's bottom line. The announcement will also expand the pool of patients eligible to get the jab by many millions.
Pfizer: Booster shot 95.6% effective against Delta variant - Fully vaccinated people who received a booster dose of Pfizer's shot in a large trial were at much lower risk of catching COVID-19, the company said Thursday.This group was at a 95.6% lower risk of catching COVID-19 than fully vaccinated people who received a dummy vaccine, called a placebo, instead of the booster, the company said.It reported no safety concerns from the trial."These are the first efficacy results from any randomized, controlled COVID-19 vaccine booster trial," Pfizer said in the press release, adding that it planned to submit the data to health authorities.The results were from a late stage trial of more than 10,000 people aged 16 or older. Pfizer Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla said in the statement: "These results provide further evidence of the benefits of boosters as we aim to keep people well-protected against this disease."Pfizer's vaccine is already authorized as a booster in the US and UK for people at high risk of COVID-19.To get the 95.6% figure, the researchers compared how many people in the booster group got COVID-19 with the number of people in the placebo group that caught the virus.
Comparing three Covid-19 vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna, J&J --This story was last updated on Oct. 20.Scientific teams around the world have developed successful Covid-19 vaccines in incredibly short order. In a feat that even a couple of years ago would have seemed completely out of reach, vaccines to protect against the new disease were being used before the first anniversary of the disclosure that a new threat existed. This is truly extraordinary. In the United States, three vaccines are available. Two — those from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson — have emergency use authorizations, which are green lights from the Food and Drug Administration to be put into use, even though they have not yet been fully licensed. In August 2021, the FDA gave full approval to the vaccine developed by the partnership of Pfizer and German manufacturer BioNTech for people 16 and older. This vaccine is used in younger teens under an EUA and is expected to be available for children five and older by the first week of November.The Pfizer shot first received emergency authorization in mid-December, followed closely by the one developed by Moderna with assistance from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.In late February came a third. Janssen Pharmaceuticals, the vaccine division of Johnson & Johnson, secured an emergency use authorization for its one-dose vaccine. The vaccine was seen as a potential game-changer. It doesn’t require the fussy cold-chain needed to keep the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines from spoiling. It is cheaper, both on a per-dose basis and because only one dose is needed. Plus it was thought a one-and-done option might entice some people who couldn’t easily get two doses to roll up their sleeves.But since the J&J vaccine’s arrival on the scene there have been a number of challenges. A production snafu in the hands of a contract production company contaminated 15 million doses, which had to be destroyed. And in mid-April, the FDA and CDC recommended states pause use of the vaccine as they investigate whether the vaccine triggers a rare but serious side effect — the development of diffuse blood clots, even though the few individuals who developed the condition had low platelet levels. What follows is a head-to-head comparison of the vaccines developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, by Moderna, and by J&J. This article will be updated as developments occur.
Early data suggest side effects after Covid booster similar to second dose -- People who’ve received a third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine are reporting rates of side effects similar to those after the second dose, according to data released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The new report, published in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, relies on submissions from thousands of people who received third shots of the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna after such doses were authorized for people with compromised immune systems. People submitted their reactions to v-safe, the CDC’s smartphone-based surveillance network. Among more than 12,500 people who completed surveys after each shot, 79.4% of people reported local reactions (including itching, pain, or redness at the injection site), while 74.1% reported systemic reactions (mostly fatigue, muscle aches, and headaches), typically the day after the shot. That compared to 77.6% and 76.5% of the people who reported local or systemic reactions, respectively, after their second shot.Overall, among more than 22,000 v-safe registrants who’ve received third doses, “no unexpected patterns of adverse reactions were observed,” the report says. As of Sept. 19, some 2.2 million people in the United States had received additional doses of the Covid-19 vaccines. The report focuses on the more common, less worrisome side effects of the mRNA vaccines, and doesn’t mention the very rare, but more serious events like anaphylaxis. Some vaccine side effects occur so infrequently that even studies of thousands of people don’t detect them; it’s only after the shots are administered into millions of arms that a connection becomes clear.But the new data provide at least an early hint that in terms of immediate reactions, it doesn’t seem as if third shots cause more of a kick than the second shots did. Gathering such data is important as the government authorizes boosters for wider populations. Last week, the CDC recommended boosters for people 65 and older, adults with certain underlying health issues, and those who work places or living sites place them at higher risk of coronavirus exposure. So far, those recommendations only apply for people who received the Pfizer vaccine as their initial series, but boosters for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson shots are expected to eventually be authorized.“These initial findings indicate no unexpected patterns of adverse reactions after an additional dose of Covid-19 vaccines; most of these adverse reactions were mild or moderate,” the authors wrote in the new report.
Nebraska Doctors Now Legally Able To Prescribe Ivermectin & Hydroxychloroquine - Throughout this pandemic, doctors have been barred from prescribing hydroxychloroquine & ivermectin for patients with COVID. Nebraska state Attorney General Doug Peterson issued his “official opinion” claiming that doctors in the state can now prescribe the two medications off-label, so long as patients give their informed consent. Peterson’s opinion came after a request by Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services CEO Dannette Smith. Smith asked the office to take a closer look at whether doctors could face disciplinary legal action for prescribing either of the two drugs. A 48-page document was released by Peterson’s office detailing research and data that suggests hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin have minor or no side effects when treating COVID-19 patients. This correlates with a lot of other data that has been collected about the two drugs since their inception. For example, ivermectin has been used to treat several human diseases, and doses have been administered billions of times. We are talking ivermectin human intended ivermectin, not the veterinary version. The 48-page document explains that there is no available data to justify filing disciplinary actions against physicians simply because they prescribe ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine to prevent or treat COVID. As mentioned, doctors must obtain the patient’s informed consent to do so. Ivermectin has long been used as an anti-parasite medicine whose discovery won the scientists who uncovered it the Nobel Prize in 2015 for its impacts in ridding large parts of the globe of parasitic diseases. Since 2012, numerous in-vitro and in-vivo studies began to report highly potent antiviral effects of ivermectin against a diverse array of viruses. The drug became more well known for it’s controversy during COVID. Governments have cast doubt over it, and mainstream media has long called it a horse ‘de-wormer’ when discussing its use to treat COVID. Interestingly,Merck’s new COVID treatment, mulnapiravir, is a medication also used to treat horses. Dr. Louis Safranek, an infectious disease specialist in Nebraska, has been prescribing ivermectin during COVID. He said that more than 500 of his patients have successfully dealt with COVID thanks to the drug.
The FDA's War Against The Truth On Ivermectin -On July 28, the Wall Street Journal ran our article “Why Is the FDA Attacking a Safe, Effective Drug?”In it, we outlined the potential value of the antiparasitic drug ivermectin for Covid-19, and we questioned the FDA’s vigorous attack on ivermectin. Many people praised us and many criticized us. We had clearly covered a sensitive subject. It didn’t help that one of the studies we referenced was retracted the day our article was published. Within hours of learning that fact, we sent a mea culpa to the Journal’s editors. They acted quickly, adding a note at the end of the electronic version and publishing our letter. It’s important to address two criticisms of our work. The first is that we exaggerated the FDA’s warning on ivermectin. The second is that Merck’s stance on ivermectin proved that even the company that developed ivermectin thought that it doesn’t work for Covid-19.First, we didn’t exaggerate the FDA’s warning on ivermectin.Instead, the agency changed its website after our article was published, probably to reflect the points we made.Second, Merck had two incentives to downplay ivermectin’s usefulness against the novel coronavirus.We’ll explain both points more fully.Ivermectin was developed and marketed by Merck & Co. while one of us (Hooper) worked there years ago. Dr. William C. Campbell and Professor Satoshi Omura were awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine. They earned it for discovering and developing avermectin. Later Campbell and some associates modified avermectin to create ivermectin. Merck & Co. has donated four billion doses of ivermectin to prevent river blindness and other diseases in areas of the world, such as Africa, where parasites are common. The ten doctors who are in the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance call ivermectin “one of the safest, low-cost, and widely available drugs in the history of medicine.” Ivermectin is on the WHO’s List of Essential Medicines and ivermectin has been used safely in pregnant women, children, and infants.Ivermectin is an antiparasitic, but it has shown, in cell cultures in laboratories, the ability to destroy 21 viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the cause of Covid-19. Further, ivermectin has demonstrated its potential in clinical trials for the treatment of Covid-19 and in large-scale population studies for the prevention of Covid-19.Contradicting these positive results, the FDA issued a special statement warning that “you should not use ivermectin to treat or prevent Covid-19.” The FDA’s warning, which included language such as, “serious harm,” “hospitalized,” “dangerous,” “very dangerous,” “seizures,” “coma and even death,” and “highly toxic,” might suggest that the FDA was warning against pills laced with poison. In fact, the FDA had already approved the drug years ago as a safe and effective anti-parasitic. Why would it suddenly become dangerous if used to treat Covid-19? Further, the FDA claimed, with no scientific basis, that ivermectin is not an antiviral, notwithstanding its proven antiviral activity.
The Confusing Message About Ivermectin --Since the early days of the pandemic, one drug that has been used to solve the "COVID-19 puzzle" has been the object of scorn from the left-leaning mainstream media since it doesn't involve the use of expensive, experimental vaccines brought to the world by Big Pharma. This has become particularly evident since Joe Rogan brought his use of ivermectin during his experience with COVID-19 to the forefront, creating a sh!tstorm of criticism from the mainstream media which gleefully refers to ivermectin as "horse paste" or "horse dewormer". In this posting, I want to provide a bit of interesting trivia about ivermectin which actually appears on the website of the National Institutes for Health of which Fauci's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) is a part, one of 27 Institutes or Centers which make up the NIH.Let's open with this information on ivermectin from the NIH website regarding the use of the "wonder drug" in humans: "There are few drugs that can seriously lay claim to the title of ‘Wonder drug’, penicillin and aspirin being two that have perhaps had greatest beneficial impact on the health and wellbeing of Mankind. But ivermectin can also be considered alongside those worthy contenders, based on its versatility, safety and the beneficial impact that it has had, and continues to have, worldwide—especially on hundreds of millions of the world’s poorest people. Several extensive reports, including reviews authored by us, have been published detailing the events behind the discovery, development and commercialization of the avermectins and ivermectin (22,23-dihydroavermectin B), as well as the donation of ivermectin and its use in combating Onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis. However, none have concentrated in detail on the interacting sequence of events involved in the passage of the drug into human use....Ivermectin proved to be even more of a ‘Wonder drug’ in human health, improving the nutrition, general health and wellbeing of billions of people worldwide ever since it was first used to treat Onchocerciasis in humans in 1988. It proved ideal in many ways, being highly effective and broad-spectrum, safe, well tolerated and could be easily administered (a single, annual oral dose). It is used to treat a variety of internal nematode infections, including Onchocerciasis, Strongyloidiasis, Ascariasis, cutaneous larva migrans, filariases, Gnathostomiasis and Trichuriasis, as well as for oral treatment of ectoparasitic infections, such as Pediculosis (lice infestation) and scabies (mite infestation). Ivermectin is the essential mainstay of two global disease elimination campaigns that should soon rid the world of two of its most disfiguring and devastating diseases, Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic filariasis, which blight the lives of billions of the poor and disadvantaged throughout the tropics. It is likely that, throughout the next decade, well over 200 million people will be taking the drug annually or semi-annually, via innovative globally-coordinated Mass Drug Administration (MDA) programmes."In reading the entire article, ivermectin has successfully been used in humans for nearly three decades and, since 1988, has not just been used as "horse paste".With that in mind, let's now look at with this tweet from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration from August 2021:
Children could be dangerous carriers of virus Harvard Gazette. - By tudying 110 children aged two weeks to 21 years who tested positive for COVID-19 at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) or urgent care clinics, researchers confirmed earlier findings that infants, children and adolescents are equally capable of carrying high levels of live, replicating SARS-CoV-2 in their respiratory secretions. The researchers at Harvard-affiliated MGH and colleagues from Brigham and Women’s Hospital and the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT and Harvard then showed that these high levels of virus correspond with live, infectious virus, and that levels are highest early in the illness in both symptomatic and asymptomatic children. They found no correlation between the age of the children and the amount of their viral load. The researchers published additional data on several features of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in children in the Journal of Infectious Diseases. “There had been the question about whether the high viral load in children correlated with the live virus. We’ve been able to provide a definitive answer that these high viral loads are infectious,” says Lael Yonker, pediatric pulmonologist at MGH and co-first author with Julie Boucau, senior research scientist at MGH and the Ragon Institute. Reassuringly, they also found that viral load had no correlation to severity of disease in the kids themselves, but concerns remain for them and those around them: “Children can carry the virus and infect other people,” says Yonker. Students and teachers have returned to classrooms, but many questions remain about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children. Most children are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic when they develop COVID-19, giving the misconception that children are less infectious. Studying the virologic features of SARS-CoV-2 in children with COVID-19, and how SARS-CoV-2 infection differs between children and adults, is an essential component for establishing effective public health policies, not only to ensure safety within the school but also for controlling the pandemic, says Yonker. As COVID-19 variants continue to emerge, infected children are potential “reservoirs” for the evolution of new variants as well as potential spreaders of current variants, she says. “Kids with COVID-19, even if asymptomatic, are infectious and can harbor SARS-CoV-2 variants. Variants could potentially impact both the severity of the disease and the efficacy of vaccines, as we are seeing with the Delta variant. When we cultured the live virus, we found a wide variety of genetic variants,” adds Yonker. “New variants have the potential to be more contagious and also make kids sicker.”’
White House Details Plan To "Quickly" Vaccinate 28 Million Children Age 5-11 --The Biden administration on Wednesday unveiled its plan to 'quickly' vaccinate roughly 28 million children age 5-11, pending authorization from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The jab - which doesn't prevent transmission of Covid-19 will be available at pediatricians, local pharmacies, and possibly even at schools, according to the White House, which expects FDA authorization of the Pfizer shot for children - the least likely to fall seriously ill or die from the virus, in a matter of weeks, according to the Associated Press.Federal regulators will meet over the next two weeks to weigh the benefits of giving shots to kids, after lengthy studies meant to ensure the safety of the vaccines.Within hours of formal approval, expected after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisory meeting scheduled for Nov. 2-3, doses will begin shipping to providers across the country, along with smaller needles necessary for injecting young kids, and within days will be ready to go into the arms of kids on a wide scale. –AP According to the announcement, the White House has secured enough to supply more than 25,000 doses for pediatricians and primary care physicians who have already signed up to deliver the vaccine, while the country now has enough Pfizer vaccine to jab roughly 28 million kids who will soon be eligible, meaning this won't be a slow roll-out like we saw 10 months ago when doses and capacity issues meant adults had to wait.Meanwhile, the White House is rolling out an 'advertising' campaign to convince parents and kids that the vaccine is safe and effective. According to the report, "the administration believes trusted messengers — educators, doctors, and community leaders — will be vital to encouraging vaccinations.""COVID has also disrupted our kids lives. It’s made school harder, it’s disrupted their ability to see friends and family, it’s made youth sports more challenging," said surgeon general Dr. Vivek Murthy in a Wednesday statement to NBC. "Getting our kids vaccinated, we have the prospect of protecting them, but also getting all of those activities back that are so important to our children.
Coronavirus continues to surge in Northwestern US --Coronavirus cases remain high across the United States, including more than 78,000 new cases a day and close to 1,300 daily deaths. Cases have, in particular, been surging in Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Oregon and Washington since August, with a corresponding rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Similar to the growth in cases nationally, Northwest US has been hit by a combination of the emergence of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the reckless policies of school and workplace reopenings by the Biden administration. There were less than 750 new cases per day in the region as a whole at the beginning of July, and now the five states collectively report more than 5,600 new cases a day, a more than seven-fold increase. There have been more than 1,000 new cases each day reported in Idaho since September 12, a sharp rise which follows a nadir at the beginning of July when cases dropped below 70 a day. Daily deaths also stand at about 20 a day, a record exceeding the daily death tolls suffered last winter. The state also continues to set record-high hospitalizations, with a daily average of 661 on October 14 and a peak starting in September that reached 761 the first week of October. The New York Times has reported that Idaho officials have activated “crisis standards of care,” allowing packed facilities to ration treatment. “We are being absolutely crushed by COVID,” Chris Roth, the president and chief executive of St. Luke’s Health System, a network of hospitals across Idaho. Sandee Gehrke, the chief operating officer for St. Luke’s Health System, reports, “We are out of actual hospital beds.” With a vaccination rate of just 42 percent across the state, some of Idaho’s coronavirus vaccines are expiring because they have sat unused for so long. Idaho’s Republican Governor Brad Little has refused to set mask mandates in the state since the start of the pandemic. In addition, amidst the current crisis, Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin tried to ban local mask mandates the first week of October. Montana has seen higher seven-day averages this month than in January of 2021. The week of October 11 had the highest number of cases reported in a single day, 2,200. Hospitals in Montana reached a new high of 510 patients with COVID-19, four more than the previous high in November 2020. Hospitals in Bozeman and Helena reached capacity multiple times over the past month.
17 Covid-related Deaths at Ruby Hospital in One Weekend - The number of new daily Covid-19 cases in West Virginia continues to slowly decline. DHHR reported 9,033 active cases as of yesterday, down from over 25,000 a month ago.Hospitalizations are also beginning to drop, down to 746 yesterday, compared with over one-thousand last month. However, we are not out of the woods yet. Consider the news out of J.W. Ruby Memorial Hospital in Morgantown over the weekend. Seventeen individuals died from complications of Covid-19.WVU Medicine reports 15 of the individuals who died were not vaccinated. One had been vaccinated and officials were uncertain about the 17th. The youngest was 21, while the oldest was in their seventies. Five of those who died were only in their fifties. According to DHHR figures, 4,134 West Virginians have died from Covid.Of course, behind these statistics are real people, men and women with families, friends, careers, memories and, for the younger victims, still hopes and dreams for the future.Dr. Alison Wilson, who leads Ruby Hospital’s ICU, Critical Care and Trauma Institute, said on Talkline Monday she is confident that many of the deaths at Ruby this past weekend could have been prevented if the individuals had been vaccinated.“It’s become a real tragic scene to see young families bringing teenage and younger children into the hospital to say goodbye to their mother or their father,” Wilson said.Sadly, health experts and political leaders still must beg people to get vaccinated. The rate of individuals getting shots in West Virginia continues to slowly decline. Only 58 percent of West Virginians 12+ are fully vaccinated.“The vaccine definitely helps your body to mount an immediate response to fight it off,” Wilson said.But tens of thousands of West Virginians are choosing to either ignore the medical advice or rely on their natural immunity to protect them. Last week, a caller to Talkline referenced two studies—one from theCleveland Clinic and another from Israel—that touted the benefits of natural immunity.It is true that both studies referenced the power of the human immune system post-infection to fight off another round of the virus. However, in both instances, health experts still said that getting the vaccine was safer and more effective than risking getting Covid to build up natural immunity.The Cleveland Clinic made a point of putting their research in context. “More research is needed. We do not know how long the immune system will protect itself against re-infection after Covid-19. It is safe to receive the Covid-19 vaccine even if you have previously tested positive and we recommend all those who are eligible receive it.” [Emphasis added].As I have written before, we have reached an impasse on vaccines. Most individuals who are resisting the shot are not likely to change their mind. However, as the disturbing number of deaths this past weekend at Ruby Memorial Hospital demonstrates, that decision comes with a risk, especially for individuals who have co-morbidities.
Coronavirus dashboard for October 20: as the Delta downtrend slows, is any State closing in on “herd immunity”? - Here’s a look at the past 6 months for both cases and deaths per 100,000: As of today, cases are finally down more than 50% from the Delta peak, at just over 80,000. But as you can see, they are still well above their 11,300 minimum in late June. Deaths are still just under 1700, an elevated number that is the highest since early March. Here’s a close-up of the past 8 weeks: I am showing you so you can see that the lack of reporting on Columbus Day, to also in some States the day after as well, caused an anomalous decline those two days, followed by a spike, and then an anomalous bigger decline today as last Tuesday’s spike left the average. You can also see that many States don’t bother to report on the weekends anymore causes a flattening of those two days’ readings compared with trend. The next few days will reveal if there remains a true downward trend or not. Here is what the four Census regions of the country look like over the past 12 months: Note that the winter wave began at the beginning of October last year. There has been no such increase so far this month. If cases either trend downward or even sideways for another couple of weeks, we will be lower this year than last year heading into winter. Whether vaccinations + the Delta wave mute any winter wave (when people head indoors for social gatherings) this year is the big question over the next few months. I have also been curious as to which States have been the closest to or furthest away from either “herd immunity” or “endemic Covid.” While I haven’t looked at all of them, I have compared the most extreme cases. Those States with the most vaccinations tend to have had a low to moderate number of total infections (yes, that included NY and NJ). The two jurisdictions (omitting PR and various island territories) with the most vaccinations are DC and VT: DC has 62% fully vaccinated, plus 10% partially so. VT has 71% fully plus 8% partially vaccinated. Only 9% of the population of DC has had a confirmed infection, and 6% of Vermont (both excellent number for the US). If we figure that the total number of actual cases is 2.2x the confirmed count, that gives us a 20% infection rate for DC, and a 13% infection rate for VT. If we randomly assign those among fully, partially, and un-vaccinated people, that gives us the following: DC: 64% immune,* plus 14% with some resistance, for a total of 78%, with 22% sitting ducks.VT: 73% immune,* plus 10% with some resistance, for a total of 83%, with 17% sitting ducks.*=obviously not totally so At the other extreme, the two States with the highest number of confirmed cases are TN and ND, both with 18.5% confirmed infection rates (suggesting that 41% of their populations have actually been infected. TN has 47% fully, plus 7% partially vaccinated. ND has 45% fully, plus another 7% partially vaccinated: That gives us: TN: 50% immune, plus 24% with some resistance, for a total of 74%, with 26% sitting ducks.ND: 48% immune, plus 25% with some resistance, for a total of 73%, with 27% sitting ducks. While there aren’t any States that have managed both low vaccination and low infection rates, there is one (small!) State which has both a very high vaccination rate and a very high previous infection rate: Rhode Island. RI has 70% fully, and another 7% partially vaccinated. It also has a 16.5% confirmed infection rate, the 8th highest rate in the entire country, for a “real” number of 36%: That gives us 73% immune, plus 12% with some resistance, for a total of 85%, with only 15% still sitting ducks (2% better than VT, 7% better than DC, and over 10% better than either TN or ND. Once 5-11-year-olds are able to be vaccinated, that (hopefully) should add about another 8% to the totals of fully vaccinated. That would put both RI and VT over 90% either immune or with some resistance. That’s a point by which we should expect to see what an endemic COVID, if not “herd immunity” looks like.
42% of COVID Infections in RI Are in the Vaccinated – Ten Deaths Reported in Past 3 Days. - In the past week, both the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) and the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) Advisory Committee approved the use of third, ‘booster’ doses of the Moderna and J&J COVID vaccines. This follows the approval last month of a booster dose of the Pfizer COVID vaccine. It’s a tremendous relief that total COVID infections in the country over the past few weeks are declining, including a small decrease in Rhode Island. However, the pandemic is far from over. Every state is still at a High, Very High, or Extreme Risk of infection. More than 1,500 people are dying every day from COVID - the equivalent of 15 fully loaded airliners crashing daily. Every day more than 75,000 new infections are reported (with the actual number certainly much higher) – the equivalent of everyone in Rhode Island becoming infected every two weeks. Rhode Island is reporting 247 new cases a day – 10 people every hour – with the actual numbers again likely much higher. New hospital admissions for COVID are up to 97 this week from 78 last week.Vaccination alone is not a magic shield. Last week 42% of COVID infections in Rhode Island were in vaccinated individuals, up from 39% the prior week. Even more concerning may be COVID deaths. Two weeks ago 50% of COVID deaths in Rhode Island (5/10) were in vaccinated individuals. Last week all 5/5 COVID deaths in the state were in the vaccinated.In the past three days, Rhode Island has suffered 10 deaths, according to the RI Department of Health. It is unknown if any of those individuals who died were vaccinated. Though we pride ourselves on the quality of our healthcare, the sad fact is the U.S. has both the highest total number of COVID infections, and COVID deaths, in the world.What are we doing wrong?
School reopenings in Manaus, Brazil gave rise to COVID’s Gamma variant, study shows - As schools reopen around the world, their role as vectors for the spread of the novel coronavirus is becoming increasingly clear, with growing numbers of children infected and dying. In the United States, after schools reopened, the first week of September registered a 240 percent increase in cases in children compared to the end of July. In the last two months, 164 children died from COVID-19 in the US, an average of almost three deaths per day. In Brazil, children and young people up to the age of 19 accounted for 2.5 percent of cases and 0.6 percent of COVID-19 deaths in December 2020. At the end of August of this year, one month after the largest school reopenings since the pandemic began, these numbers increased to 17 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. Brazil has recorded the deaths of 2,398 children and young people up to the age of 19 from COVID-19, the highest number in the world. This is occurring despite several studies published in the world’s leading scientific journals having warned about the role of schools and children as vectors for the transmission of the virus. This criminal experiment with human life — particularly that of children, the most vulnerable sector of society, which should be best protected amid a pandemic that is still out of control — is a condemnation of the entire world ruling elite. It has refused to implement measures widely known to science in order to secure its profit interests. A study published in the Journal of Public Health Policy at the end of August shed further light on the role of schools in the dynamics of the pandemic. Led by researcher Lucas Ferrante, from the renowned National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), the study “How Brazil’s President turned the country into a global epicenter of COVID-19” showed that the reopening of schools in Manaus, capital of the state of Amazonas, in September of last year gave rise to the more contagious Gamma variant, which triggered the second wave in March-April of this year and has been responsible for two-thirds of the more than 600,000 recorded COVID-19 deaths in Brazil. Manaus can be considered the world’s largest open-air laboratory for the novel coronavirus. On two occasions, the city was the symbol of the negligent and criminal response of the Brazilian ruling elite to the pandemic, expressed most viciously by fascistic President Jair Bolsonaro and his local ally, Governor Wilson Lima. In the first wave, in April-May 2020, Manaus shocked the world after being the first Brazilian city to start burying COVID-19 dead in mass graves. In the second wave, in January of this year, the world watched in horror as patients died from lack of oxygen , while the federal government pressured the city to use hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin on COVID-19 patients, two medicines that science had already exposed as useless.
An estimated 115,000 health workers have died from Covid-19 - Some 115,000 health care workers died from Covid-19 from January 2020 to May of this year, according to a new World Health Organization estimate, as the agency pushed once again for efforts to address vaccine inequity. Globally, 2 in 5 health care workers are fully vaccinated, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a briefing Thursday. But, he added, “that average masks huge differences across regions and economic groupings.” In most high-income countries, more than 80% of health care workers are fully vaccinated, Tedros said. But in Africa, the rate is less than 1 in 10. “The backbone of every health system is its workforce — the people who deliver the services on which we rely at some point in our lives,” Tedros said. “The pandemic is a powerful demonstration of just how much we rely on health workers and how vulnerable we all are when the people who protect our health are themselves unprotected.” The 115,000 figure comes from a working paper that has a broader estimate of 80,000 to 180,000 health care worker deaths through May 2021. The numbers are based on the total reported death toll at that point of 3.45 million, which is an underestimate given that some deaths are not reported. The current death toll stands at 4.92 million. Tedros called for countries to prioritize health care workers in their vaccination rollouts, but the clear message underlying the WHO’s updated data Thursday was that there remain massive disparities in vaccine access globally. The WHO has called for countries to postpone the delivery of booster shots until supply improves in countries that have had limited deliveries. “More than 10 months since the first vaccines were approved, the fact that millions of health care workers still haven’t been vaccinated is an indictment on the countries and companies that control the global supply of vaccines,” Tedros said. He added that high- and upper-middle-income countries have now administered almost half as many booster shots as the total number of shots low income countries have administered. And he urged the countries headed to the G20 summit later this month in Rome to tackle vaccine inequity. WHO officials estimate that Western countries have hundreds of millions of doses sitting unused, swathes of which face upcoming expiration dates. They’re urging countries to find ways to transfer their vaccines and switch delivery contracts to move their excess supplies to other countries.
Offshoot of Covid Delta variant on the rise in England -A newly detected coronavirus variant is on the rise in England, with the virus believed to be an offshoot of Delta.According to a briefing from the UK Health Security Agency, released on Friday, “a Delta sublineage newly designated as AY.4.2 is noted to be expanding in England”, with the body adding that the variant is being monitored and assessed.The report states that in the week beginning 27 September – the last week for which complete sequencing data was available – AY.4.2 accounted for about 6% of sequenced coronavirus cases and is “on an increasing trajectory”.AY.4.2 contains two mutations in its spike protein, called A222V and Y145H. The spike protein sits on the outside of the coronavirus and helps the virus to enter cells.However, Ravi Gupta, a professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, told the Guardian these mutations were not of particular concern. “A222V has been seen in other lineages of Delta,” he said. “It doesn’t have a really large effect on the virus.”Gupta added similar mutations to Y145H had been seen in the Alpha variant and other variants. While these appear to have an effect on the binding between antibodies and the virus, Gupta said the effect was, at most, modest. “But in my mind, these are not really significant mutations,” he said. “We need to look further at what the non-spike mutations are.” In the past, new Covid variants have fuelled large surges in the number of cases – the Alpha variant played a key role in rising cases last winter, while the Delta variant took off and led to sharp increases in the spring. Daily Covid cases in England are rising once again: 39,624 new Covid cases were reported on Saturday, the highest figure since late July. According to the Financial Times, Dr Jeffrey Barrett, the director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridge, and Prof Francois Balloux, the director of the University College London Genetics Institute, have suggested AY.4.2 could be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant. However, they urged caution. “Britain is the only country in which it has taken off in this way and I still would not rule out its growth being a chance demographic event,” Balloux told the FT. “Its potential higher transmissibility could at this stage only explain a tiny fraction of additional cases,” he said. “It’s around 10% frequency [now], and assuming it may be 10% more transmissible, that would only explain an additional 1% extra infections [every five or so days].” Gupta said the focus on a new variant was missing the point, noting a number of other important factors including the slow rollout of jabs to older children. According to official figures, vaccination rates among 12- to 15-year-olds were about three times lower in England than Scotland. “We shouldn’t be blaming the virus for what is going on in the UK,” said Gupta. “It is because we have fundamentally failed to control transmission, and that is because kids are vulnerable, they have not been vaccinated, they are back at school, they are spreading virus among themselves and they are feeding it into their families.”
Britain falls behind Europe on Covid-19 as surge sparks call for probe into Delta Plus mutation - Surging cases in the UK have left the country behind the rest of Europe with former US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Scott Gottlieb calling for "urgent research" into a mutation of the Delta variant known as Delta Plus. Britain reported 45,140 new cases on Sunday (Oct 17), the highest daily jump since mid-July, around when Prime Minister Boris Johnson authorised the removal of most Covid-19-related restrictions in what was dubbed "Freedom Day". Weekly deaths from the virus topped 800 for each of the past six weeks, higher than in other major western European nations, according to Bloomberg’s tracker. The UK also has lagged in rolling out the vaccines to adolescents amid concerns that some side effects undermined the net benefit of the shots given children are less likely to become seriously ill. The delay meant most older children weren't offered a vaccine until the school year had started. Prevalence of Covid-19 is growing among those aged 17 and younger, the latest React-1 study led by Imperial College London found last week. The reproduction rate in that age group was 1.18, meaning that on average every 10 young people infected are passing it on to about 12 others. The Delta plus strain Dr Gottlieb highlighted includes the K417N mutation, which has also stoked concern because that’s also harboured by the Beta variant that’s associated with an increased risk of reinfection. "We need urgent research to figure out if this Delta Plus is more transmissible, has partial immune evasion," Dr Gottlieb said in a tweet on Sunday. "There's no clear indication that it's considerably more transmissible, but we should work to more quickly characterise these and other new variants. We have the tools." British researchers said in late June that there is no evidence yet to suggest the additional mutation is more worrisome. A German paper earlier this month found while both Delta and Delta Plus infect lung cells more efficiently than the original coronavirus strain, Delta Plus does not appear to be significantly more dangerous than Delta. In England, the percentage of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending Oct 9, with an estimated 890,000 people having Covid-19, or about 1 in 60, according to the Office for National Statistics. To date, Britain has recorded almost 140,000 Covid-19-related fatalities. "At the moment the UK has a higher level of Covid-19 than most other comparable countries, this is seen not just in positive tests but in hospital admissions and deaths," Dr Jim Naismith, a professor at the University of Oxford, wrote in a statement published by the Science Media Centre on Oct 15. Each death "represents a tragedy", he said.
“Fifth wave” of COVID-19 underway in France - Following a continuous fall in cases since mid-August, the last seven-day period has seen an increase of 11.5 percent in new COVID-19 cases in France. After the seven-day average for cases reached a low of 4,172 on October 9 it has since risen to 4,647. On Tuesday, the total number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 rose for the first time in two months by 15 to 6,483. As of October 17, France’s estimated R0 reproduction rate was 1.05. In the last week, over 200 people have died from the virus, taking the total number of deaths from COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic to over 118,000. Across Europe the death toll is now over 1.27 million, according to worldometers.info. In early September, the Pasteur Institute warned that winter conditions will lead to a renewed surge of the virus in France and a peak of hospitalizations exceeding those witnessed in 2020. This calculation was based on assuming that vaccine efficacy does not diminish over time and does not consider the impact of new variants. Even before the onset in France of cold weather, which typically favors the spread of respiratory viruses, COVID-19’s resurgence is well underway. Without immediate measures to curb the spread of the virus, within a few weeks daily cases will once again be in the tens of thousands. The rise in cases, despite increasing levels of vaccination in the population, expose the government’s lie that vaccines alone can contain and end the pandemic. As of October 17, 67.4 percent of the population are fully protected, and 75.5 percent have received one dose. While vaccination is a necessary measure to protect the population from severe infection and reduce transmission, it is not sufficient by itself to stop the virus. It is highly likely conditions in France will resemble those in the UK within a matter of weeks. Both countries have fully vaccinated around 67 percent of their populations. In the UK, over the last week, average daily cases were 44,251 and nearly 1,000 people died. The recent decision of the Macron government to remove masks in schools will only further drive the acceleration in infections. Last week, 1180 school classes were closed due to positive COVID cases.The government’s decision to end free testing on October 15 is set to artificially lower the true level of infection in France in coming weeks. Encouraging people to avoid testing, even when they are symptomatic, will lead to people infected with the virus continuing to go to work, commute and socialize, endangering all those they contact.
Putin Orders All Workers Home For One Week Amid Record COVID Surge --Cities across Russia appear to be heading into lockdown again, despite the Sputnik V vaccine having been the world's first to have rolled out last year, and with at this point an estimated one-third of the population being fully vaccinated. Yet this week has witnessed new daily record highs as confirmed coronavirus cases surge once again. Tuesday witnessed the highest single-day death toll thus far in the pandemic, with 1,038 deaths from the virus recorded, according to the AP. President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday an almost unprecedented order for all workers across the nation to stay home for one week. In some hard-hit cities, the mandate could reach up to two weeks. However, authorities have stopped short of imposing a full-fledged national lockdown. During Wednesday statements, Russian health authorities reported 34,073 new coronavirus cases over the prior 24 hours, a new daily high.The work stoppage plan was initially proposed by Putin's Cabinet - which the president is now backing - to take effect October 30, and going through the first week of November."Our task today is to protect life and health of our citizens and minimize the consequences of the dangerous infection," Putin said in a video call with officials Wednesday, The Associated Press reported. "To achieve that, it's necessary to first of all slow the pace of contagion and mobilize additional reserves of the health care system, which is currently working under a high strain," he added.Putin further expressed frustrations with the course the pandemic is taking, after the vaccine has long been available to all seeking it: "I can't understand what's going on," he said. "We have a reliable and efficient vaccine. The vaccine really reduces the risks of illness, grave complications and death.""There are only two ways to get over this period — to get sick or to receive a vaccine," Putin said. "It's better to get the vaccine, why wait for the illness and its grave consequences? Please be responsible and take the necessary measures to protect yourself, your health and your close ones."
Escalating COVID crisis overwhelms Papua New Guinea hospitals - Amid an escalating COVID-19 crisis in Papua New Guinea (PNG), the south-west Pacific’s largest and most populous island nation, the fragile health system and its hospitals are being overwhelmed by the number of cases. Radio New Zealand reported on October 11 that since PNG’s first reported case of the Delta variant, the virus had been largely left to “fester and spread.” The capital Port Moresby is undergoing a third wave of the pandemic, while a health disaster is unfolding around the country, including in the heavily-populated Highlands region. Meanwhile, less than 1 percent of the population of nearly 9 million is fully vaccinated, the lowest vaccine coverage in the Western Pacific. The government largely kept the coronavirus at bay for all of last year, through tight border closures. The Delta strain was first detected on July 10, after the captain of a Philippines ship tested positive, and underwent isolation at the Port Moresby General Hospital. Health professionals warned that the combination of very-low testing rates, a high percentage of positive tests and an extremely slow vaccine rollout provided a “recipe for a major spread.” Health authorities scaled back the limited testing regime, on the pretext that it would allow them to “shift focus” to vaccinating vulnerable sections of the population. Consequently, the official statistics drastically understate the reality of what is happening. What health data is available shows a sharp spike in cases from April through June, and another this month, with 3,935 active cases since September 28. On 14 October, 412 new cases were reported, with a seven-day average of 306 cases. The country has officially recorded a total of 24,041 cases and 266 deaths. The health system has long suffered from shortages of drugs, lack of funding, crumbling infrastructure and a severe lack of health workers. Shortly after a sit-in during March 2020, by 600 Port Moresby nurses protesting inadequate personal protective equipment, over 4,000 nurses were ready to strike nationwide over the lack of preparation for a coronavirus outbreak. However, the PNG Nurses Association called off the stoppage at the last minute. With the hospital system now swamped, clinicians warn that the situation is much worse than officials admit, with provinces seeing far more cases than the National Control Centre records. Port Moresby General Hospital is reporting positive COVID testing rates of 60 percent and is scaling down its services due to the surge in patients.
Phthalates in Food Packaging Lead to 100,000 Deaths in U.S. Each Year, Study Finds --A new study has found that chemicals known as phthalates (PFAS) found in plastic food packaging and other consumer goods are killing 91,000 to 107,000 older adults in the U.S. each year. The study, published in Environmental Pollution on Oct.12, 2021, outlines the dangers of phthalates in food packaging, although these chemicals are also found in shampoos, nail polish, creams, and even baby lotions.The researchers found that adults aged 55 to 64 with the highest exposure to phthalates are more likely to die from all causes, particularly cardiovascular disease, compared to their counterparts with lower exposure. They found that 90,761 to 107,283 people in this age group with heightened exposure had died.Those deaths have a great economic impact, too, at an estimated $39.9 to $47.1 billion in lost economic productivity.To come to these findings, the team analyzed urine samples of over 5,000 U.S. adults that participated in the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Survey, with a special focus on people ages 55 to 64 in order to compare their results with previous studies. "Our research suggests that the toll of this chemical on society is much greater than we first thought," "The evidence is undeniably clear that limiting exposure to toxic phthalates can help safeguard Americans' physical and financial wellbeing." Phthalates, also known as plasticizers, are a group of chemicals that make plastic more durable. These chemicals are somewhat restricted for use in toys, but monitoring of these chemicals in food packaging or personal care items is minimal. Many people ingest or breathe in phthalates, because they are found in everything from flooring to personal care products to plastic packages on food.
New York reports a record 15 cases of a rare disease linked to rat urine in 2021, as vermin complaints flood in - Rats have been terrorizing New Yorkers even more than usual this year, teaming up in clan warfare during the food-scarce days of strict Covid lockdowns and harassing sidewalk diners once the city began opening up.And this year, more New Yorkers have been falling seriously ill from a rare but potentially fatal bacterial disease called leptospirosis, which is spread through exposure to rats, and specifically through contact with rat urine or contaminated water. Last month, the city's health department reported 14 cases of leptospirosis – an unusually high number since just New York has documented a total of 57 cases in the 15 years since 2006 – and alerted healthcare providers to be on the lookout for symptoms. Of the first 14 cases, 13 people were hospitalized with acute renal and hepatic failure, and one person died as a result of an infection, the alert said.Rats have been terrorizing New Yorkers even more than usual this year, teaming up in clan warfare during the food-scarce days of strict Covid lockdowns and harassing sidewalk diners once the city began opening up.And this year, more New Yorkers have been falling seriously ill from a rare but potentially fatal bacterial disease called leptospirosis, which is spread through exposure to rats, and specifically through contact with rat urine or contaminated water. Last month, the city's health department reported 14 cases of leptospirosis – an unusually high number since just New York has documented a total of 57 cases in the 15 years since 2006 – and alerted healthcare providers to be on the lookout for symptoms. Of the first 14 cases, 13 people were hospitalized with acute renal and hepatic failure, and one person died as a result of an infection, the alert said. A few months later, New York issued a veterinary medical alert when dogs started falling ill, some of which were believed to have slurped contaminated water in standing puddles while taking walks during the unusually warm winter.
‘Flesh-Eating’ STD that causes ‘Beefy Red’ sores is spreading in UK - A once-rare flesh-eating sexually transmitted disease that causes “beefy red” ulcers is spreading across the UK, according to a report Friday.Cases of donovanosis — which causes thick sores that damage genital tissue — have been steadily growing in the region since 2016, and cases are expected to rise, according to data and experts cited by Birmingham Live.“Figures suggest that donovanosis — which was previously thought to be restricted to places including India, Brazil and New Guinea — is becoming more common on these shores,” Dr. Datta, of MyHealthCare Clinic in London, told the outlet.Health officials reported 30 cases of the STD in the UK in 2019, but more infections in the past two years could pose a public-health risk, she warned.The STD is generally transmitted through unprotected sex, but in rare cases, it can be spread through non-sexual skin-on-skin contact and to newborn babies through their moms. Symptoms include “bulging red bumps,” “damaged skin” and “loss of genital tissue color,” according to Healthline.com.The STD is more common in parts of India, Papua New Guinea, central Australia and the Caribbean and southern Africa, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Long-term treatment, including with antibiotics, are needed to cure the disease.
Tuberculosis, Like Covid, Spreads by Breathing, Scientists Report - Upending centuries of medical dogma, a team of South African researchers has found that breathing may be a bigger contributor to the spread of tuberculosis than coughing, the signature symptom. As much as 90 percent of TB bacteria released from an infected person may be carried in tiny droplets, called aerosols, that are expelled when a person exhales deeply, the researchers estimated. The findings were presented on Tuesday at a scientific conference held online. The report echoes an important finding of the Covid pandemic: The coronavirus, too, spreads in aerosols carried aloft, particularly in indoor spaces — a route of transmission that was widely underappreciated as the pandemic began to unfold. TB is caused by a bacterium called Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which usually attacks the lungs. It is the world’s deadliest infectious disease after Covid-19, claiming more than 1.5 million lives last year — the first increase in a decade, according to a report published last week by the World Health Organization. As the Covid pandemic disrupted access to health care and supply chains around the globe, 5.8 million people were diagnosed with TB in 2020. But the W.H.O. estimates that about 10 million people were infected. Many may unwittingly be spreading the disease to others. “Our model would suggest that, actually, aerosol generation and TB generation can happen independent of symptoms,” said Ryan Dinkele, a graduate student at the University of Cape Town who presented the results. The finding helps explain why tightly packed indoor spaces, like prisons, often are breeding grounds for TB, as they are for Covid. And the research suggests that some of the methods used to limit coronavirus transmission — masks, open windows or doors, and being outdoors as much as possible — are important in curtailing TB. “Those of us who are TB people look at Covid and say, ‘Wow, it’s just a sped up version of TB,’” said Dr. Robert Horsburgh, an epidemiologist at Boston University who was not involved in the work. Researchers previously believed that most TB transmission occurred when an infected person coughed, spraying droplets containing the bacteria into the air. Some bacteria were thought to be released when a person breathed, but much less than by coughing. The new finding does not change that understanding: A single cough can expel more bacteria than a single breath. But if an infected person breathes 22,000 times per day while coughing up to 500 times, then coughing accounts for as little as 7 percent of the total bacteria emitted by an infected patient, Mr. Dinkele said. On a crowded bus or at school or work, where people sit in confined spaces for hours, “just simply breathing would contribute more infectious aerosols than coughing would,” Mr. Dinkele said.
More Lead-Tainted Water in Michigan Draws Attention to Nation’s Aging Pipes - NY Times — During the three years that officials have known about dangerous amounts of lead flowing from faucets in Benton Harbor, Mich., they have sent out notices, distributed filters and tried to improve water treatment. But the problems persisted, and some residents said they never heard about the risks of the toxic water coming from their taps.Now, in scenes reminiscent of the water crisis in Flint, Mich., state officials have told Benton Harbor residents not to drink, cook or brush their teeth with tap water. Elected officials came to town Thursday promising help. And so many cars have turned out for bottled water giveaways that traffic has been snarled, a rarity in a place with 9,100 residents.“It’s horrible to watch, to see my city like this,” Rosetta Valentine, 63, said as she directed traffic at a water distribution site where some people lined up nearly an hour before the event started.Residents of Benton Harbor see parallels between their plight and the water crisis that unfolded less than three hours up the highway in Flint, also a majority-Black city, where a change in the water source in 2014 led to residents drinking contaminated water despite repeated assurances that it was safe. In Benton Harbor, where thousands of homes are connected to the water system by lead pipes, efforts to bring down problematic lead readings by using corrosion controls have so far failed, and officials have recently grown concerned that lead-removing filters given to residents since 2019 might not work. The problems in Benton Harbor and Flint are extreme examples of a broader, national failure of water infrastructure that experts say requires massive and immediate investment to solve. Across the country, in cities like Chicago, Pittsburgh and Clarksburg, W.Va., Americans are drinking dangerous quantities of brain-damaging lead as agencies struggle to modernize water treatment plants and launch efforts to replace the lead service lines that connect buildings to the water system. Health officials say there is no safe level of lead exposure. “We’ve basically just been living off our great-grandparents’ and grandparents’ investments in our water infrastructure and not been dealing with these festering problems,” said Erik D. Olson of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an advocacy group that pressed for faster action to address the contamination in Benton Harbor. He added that the lead problem was just part of “this ticking time bomb we have underground of lead pipes, of water mains that are bursting.” President Biden has made replacing lead pipes a priority, and the infrastructure bill currently languishing in Congress would set aside billions of dollars to address that and other problems with the country’s water systems. But amid uncertainty about whether that bill and an expansive domestic policy package will pass, and about how much money would eventually make it to small communities like this one, the prospect of congressional help feels remote to many in Benton Harbor.“It’s too distant and they’re going to do what they do anyway — I can’t sit here and sweat that,”
‘We look at this and see a catastrophe in the making,’ says researcher about Pennsylvania’s forests -Pennsylvania forests are facing looming threats that could catastrophically change the state’s landscape. Two academics, Ryan Utz, an assistant professor of water resources at Chatham University, and Walter Carson, an associate professor of plant community ecology at the University of Pittsburgh, are researching the causes, the solutions and what could be on the horizon.“To most people, including many of the people that come and visit this campus, it looks like a green Eden, and natural rejuvenating place, but to ecologists like us, we look at this and see a catastrophe in the making and in progress,” Utz says, referencing the suburban forest at Chatham University’s Eden Hall campus in Richland Township. The team is studying invasive species, such as the Emerald Ash Borer. Carson says what is really threatening the urban forests is, “exotic plant invaders.”“They come in here and often leave their enemies behind, and they begin to spread throughout our understories. Forests get the double whammy of both too many invaders, many species, and too many deer.” Japanese stiltgrass is another invasive species the researchers are seeing in this facility and all throughout the Appalachian.“It just forms a carpet of invasive grass under the forest,” Utz says. “It effectively out-competes a lot of other species, including the young trees that are supposed to replace the tall canopy that we have here right now.”The young trees, both researchers agree, are in serious danger if there isn’t something done to address this growing threat. “What’s a little bit more alarming to us is these invasive shrubs that move in, and many people that just casually enjoy the forests don’t even realize that they’re invasive species,” says Utz. “But they can have just as much of an impact, if not more of an impact, in conjunction with the problem of too many deer.”There can also be indirect effects that damage the ecosystem, such as invasive shrubs providing more cover for small mammals, which then eat more young trees and seeds.Without these seeds and young trees, the forest is unable to regenerate its next generation of trees. “Between the invasive species and also over-browsing by deer,” Carson says, “those regenerating saplings are often gone.” The deer don’t want to eat many of the invasive species – either because they don’t taste good and don’t have the nutrients the animals need. Carson says addressing the exotic invasive species and the deer population is a tough needle to thread. “We have decades and decades of over browsing,” he says. “We also have decades and decades of invasive species. So how do you walk in and combat that problem?”
California Records Driest Year Since 1924 - California recorded its driest year in a century amid a period of above-average wildfires, extreme heat and extended droughts. The 12-month period from Oct. 1 through Sept. 30 when surface-water supply is tracked, known as a water year, was the second driest on record based on precipitation and runoff, according to the California Department of Water Resources. Only in 1924 was there even less rain and snowfall in a year.California and other parts of the American West are suffering through one of the worst droughts on record. Dry weather, warmer temperatures, reduced snowmelt and population growth have all contributed to drought conditions, which have put added strains on water resources. “Extreme conditions that once were rare are occurring with increased frequency,” the California Department of Water Resources said in a report. “California’s climate is transitioning to a warmer setting in which historical relationships among temperature, precipitation, and runoff are changing.”Most of California is experiencing extreme or exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, which publishes a map of drought conditions that is updated weekly. Almost half the state falls in the worst category.Gov. Gavin Newsom has asked Californians to cut their water use by 15% in light of the conditions. The state is home to about 70,000 farms and ranches, with a combined output of about $50 billion a year. Many farmers have had to scramble to find enough water.Droughts are part of a natural cycle of water. But the drought currently gripping the Western U.S. has climate scientists concerned that the cycle may be shifting. This has major implications for farmers and the communities they surround. Photo illustration: Carter McCall/WSJSeveral heat waves over the summer blistered California, as well as other parts of the West. High temperatures, combined with the drought, left vegetation, branches and downed trees tinder-dry and easily combustible, accelerating the speed at which fires can spread. As of Oct. 6, 7,883 fires have burned through more than 2.48 million acres in California, according to the most recent state and federal data. The five-year average over that same period is 7,312 fires and more than 1.2 million acres.As winter approaches, there is little indication that weather patterns are going to change significantly.The weather phenomenon La Niña is expected to alter the U.S. winter for a second year in a row, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. La Niña winters, which are generally drier and warmer in parts of the U.S., could have a particularly devastating effect on the Southwest if dry weather continues to strain the region.
Newsom expands California drought emergency statewide --Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) issued a proclamation on Tuesday evening expanding California’s drought emergency to include the entire state, following the second driest year ever recorded.The governor’s proclamation now includes eight countries that had previously been exempt from the state of emergency: Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Diego, San Francisco and Ventura. With the possibility of a third consecutive year of drought on the horizon, the extended proclamation now requires local water supplies to enact water shortage contingency plans that reflect local conditions, according to the governor’s office. “As the western U.S. faces a potential third year of drought, it’s critical that Californians across the state redouble our efforts to save water in every way possible,” Newsom said in a statement. The proclamation empowers the State Water Resources Control Board to prohibit wasteful water practices, such as the use of drinking water to clean sidewalks and driveways, a news release from his office explained. Meanwhile, the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services will now be able to provide funding to support emergency response teams and deliver water for public health and safety under the California Disaster Assistance Act, according to the news release. Newsom urged residents to bolster their water conservation efforts, following up on a July executive order in which he called upon Californians to reduce water use by 15 percent compared to 2020. By August, the state had only reduced urban water use by 5 percent compared to the previous year, according to the State Water Resources Control Board. Tuesday’s proclamation comes following California’s second driest “water year” in history, rivaled only by 1924. The U.S. Geological Survey defines the “water year” as the 12-month period from Oct. 1 through Sept. 30. August 2021 also marked the driest and hottest August on record since reporting began, the governor’s office said. “With historic investments and urgent action, the state is moving to protect our communities, businesses and ecosystems from the immediate impacts of the drought emergency while building long-term water resilience to help the state meet the challenge of climate change impacts making droughts more common and more severe,” Newsom said.
"Prepare For The Worst" - Caribou Coffee Panic Hoards Arabica Beans Amid Global Deficit --US restaurant chain Caribou Coffee Co. is panic hoarding coffee beans as a global supply deficit grips the world and fuels inflation. "We continue to increase safety stock on key items," CEO John Butcher told Bloomberg. Besides coffee beans, he said the company is loading up on cups, lids, packaging, chocolate, and anything that comes to mind as supply chains remain snarled. Butcher said, "my gut tells me to hope for the best and to prepare for the worst. I personally don't see any reason to believe that supply-chain disruptions are going to go away anytime soon.""Everybody is in the same boat: They're hopeful that things will improve by the end of 2022. But for now, we have to prepare as though they won't," he said. Caribou, now part of Panera Brands, has approximately 450 US locations and plans to expand its franchising program in 2022. However, an emerging global supply deficit of arabica coffee beans (something we first warned in March and later explained in May), disruptions of logistical networks around the world, caused by container shortages and port congestion, will continue to elevate coffee prices higher for longer.Arabica coffee prices have soared to fresh decade highs this week, as news of the global supply deficit paints a grim outlook for 2022. Some of the deficit originated in Brazil, one of the world's top coffee producers, as droughts and frosts crushed crops. "We believe in a deficit of around four million bags, other analysts see it as high as seven million bags," Carlos Mera, head of Rabobank's commodities desk, wrote, adding that exports from Brazil and other top producing countries are slowing. If Caribou is panic buying coffee beans, imagine what Starbucks are other larger chains have been doing...
Multiple landfalling atmospheric rivers aim U.S. West Coast A series of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) will impact the western United States, and British Columbia, this week into early next week, bringing excessive rainfall, strong winds, and mountain snow. This could lead to flash floods and dangerous debris flows in regions devastated by recent wildfires.
- AR 4/AR 5 conditions (based on the Ralph et al. 2019 AR Scale) are expected in coastal southern Oregon in association with the first and second ARs through Friday, October 22.1
- The strongest AR is forecasted to make landfall across Central and Northern California on Saturday, October 23 potentially bringing AR 4/AR 5 conditions to the San Francisco Bay Area.
- Inland penetration of this AR may bring AR 2/AR 3 conditions to portions of the interior western US.
- Another landfalling AR is forecasted to impact the US West Coast on October 26 - 27.
- The first two ARs are forecasted to produce 50 to 100 mm (2 - 5 inches) of rainfall in portions of Northern California and southern Oregon.
- The fourth AR is forecasted to bring widespread precipitation to much of the western US, with the heaviest precipitation amounts in Northern California.
- Significant snowfall accumulations are also possible in the Sierra Nevada in association with the fourth AR.
- Portions of Northern California may receive more than 250 mm (10 inches) of total precipitation over the next 7 days.
A rapidly deepening cyclone in the northeast Pacific responsible for the development of an atmospheric river aimed at the West Coast and coastal British Columbia is set to produce unsettled weather that will arrive in the Pacific Northwest later today, NWS forecaster Mullinax noted.2The bouts of rain are a sight for sore eyes in the drought-stricken areas of the Northwest with beneficial rainfall totals ranging between 50 - 100 mm (2 to 5 inches) in the higher elevations of Northern California and southwestern Oregon.However, locally heavy rainfall rates atop burn-scarred areas could lead to flash flooding, rapid runoff, and debris flows in these locations.Slight Risks for Excessive Rainfall have been issued for a handful of areas in Northern California and far southwestern Oregon along with Flash Flood Watches in parts of the northern Sierra Nevada.As the upper low associated with this Pacific storm moves ashore Thursday night, snow levels will drop throughout the night and into Friday as it also aids in pushing precipitation farther inland.Despite the falling snow levels, snow totals will generally be light with the lone exceptions being the highest peaks of mountain ranges that include the northern Sierra Nevada, the Shastas, and the Cascades.As the storm system pushes into the northern Rockies and gradually weakens, the next Pacific low pressure system is hot on its heels as it ushers in more unsettled weather into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
Giant hailstones pummel Queensland, likely the largest seen in Australia since records began -- Severe thunderstorms hit parts of Queensland, Australia on October 18 and 19, 2021, bringing heavy rain, giant hailstones, and tornadoes. The largest hail was reported in Bloomsbury and Yalboroo, north of Mackay in North Queensland on October 19.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Shane Kennedy said they've seen some convincing images of hail up against a tape measure of 16 cm (6.29 inches). The Australian record is around 14 cm (5.5 inches) mark, Kennedy said, adding that it looks like they have a new Australian record for hail.1Hail that size has a terminal velocity of well over 100 km\h (62 mph).The world record for the largest hail is 23.59 cm (9.29 inches) recorded in 2018 in the town of Villa Carlos Paz, Argentina.2 This is the same system that brought wild weather, including two tornadoes in the Darling Downs region on October 18.
Unseasonal heavy rainfall leaves 88 people dead in Nepal, 31 others missing --Unseasonal post-monsoon rainfall affecting Nepal from October 17 - 20, 2021, has left at least 88 people dead and 30 others missing. In addition, 23 people have been reported injured.The worst affected were the eastern and western parts of the country, according to the Meteorological Forecast Division.According to Phanindra Mani Pokharel, spokesperson for the Ministry of Home Affairs, the number of casualties might increase.Pokharel said 20 of the country's 77 districts have been affected, 20 homes destroyed, along with paddy ready for harvest on hundreds of acres of land.1Traffic has been severely impacted after several bridges collapsed and highways closed. Destruction of the paddy crop is a major setback for Nepal's overall economy as paddy alone contributes around 7% to the national gross domestic product and is the major income source for more than half of the population.2 According to Nepali Airlines officials, at least 100 domestic flights scheduled for an operation to and from the capital, Kathmandu were suspended today.This is the highest number of flight suspensions recorded in a single day in recent times as air carriers could not operate services to various hilly as well as plain areas due to incessant rains and bad weather conditions.2 The death toll rose to 88 on Thursday, October 21, up from 48 reported on Wednesday.3
At least 26 dead as floods and landslides hit Kerala, India -At least 26 people have been killed in Kerala, India over the past couple of days after floods and landslides caused by heavy rains destroyed roads and homes and cut off many towns and villages. Heavy rains began on October 11, intensified late October 15, and continued through the weekend. On Monday, October 18, officials reported 11 fatalities in the Idukki district and another 14 In Kottyam, most of them due to landslides. Kerala's chief minister said thousands of people have been evacuated, adding that they opened more than 180 relief camps.1 The swelling waters in the Manimala River, locally known as Manimalayar, wreaked havoc on its banks as the eastern parts of the Kottayam district bore the brunt of heavy rain in the last couple of days, ONmanorama reports.2 The water level in the river, which cuts through South and Central Kerala, rose by 7 m (23 feet) in five hours in the heavy rains that occurred on Saturday. Old-timers in the region aver that this could be the first time that the water level rose to such a height in the river. In a 24 hour period to October 12, Karipur recorded 255 mm (10 inches) of rain, Kozhikode 216 mm (8.5 inches), and Kannur 166 mm (6.5 inches). The rain continued across the state, worsening over the last 2 days with Kochi recording 129 mm (5 inches) of rain in 24 hours to October 17 and Valparai 101 mm (3.9 inches) in 24 hours to October 18.3 According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), heavy rains were caused by a low pressure area over the SE Arabian Sea and Kerala.
Record-breaking rains leave at least 54 dead, 5 missing in Uttarakhand, India - (videos) Heavy rains triggered by two simultaneous low-pressure systems -- one over the Arabian Sea and the other over the Bay of Bengal regions -- caused severe floods and landslides in parts of the Indian state of Uttarakhand, since Sunday, October 17, 2021. Massive damage was reported across the state. According to updated figures released by the state government on October 20, at least 54 people have been killed and 5 remain missing. Most of the fatalities -- 28, were reported in the worst affected Nainital district. The heaviest rains were registered in the Kumaon district where two weather stations received the heaviest rainfall for any 24-hour period since records began. In 24 hours to Tuesday evening, October 19 (LT), IMD's weather station in Mukteshwar received record-breaking 340.8 mm (13.4 inches) while Pantnagar recorded 403.2 mm (15.8 inches) of rain, Dehradun Meteorological Centre Director Bikram Singh said.1 The previous record for rain over a 24-hour period at the Mukteshwar station, established in 1897, was 254.5 mm (10 inches), recorded on September 18, 1914. The previous 24-hour record for the Pantnagar station, established in 1962, is 228 mm (8.9 inches) set on July 10, 1990. The floods destroyed roads and bridges, and submerged many homes, with some of them crushed by rocks swept into them by landslides.2Indian Army and the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) are still conducting rescue and relief operations. The rains reduced significantly on October 20 and the state is likely to remain dry for the rest of the week, the India Meteorological Center (IMD) said.
China floods: Nearly 2 million displaced in Shanxi province --More than 1.76 million people have been affected by severe flooding in China's northern Shanxi province, according to local media. Torrential rain last week led to houses collapsing and triggered landslides across more than 70 districts and cities in the province. Heavy rainfall is hampering rescue efforts, officials said. The flooding comes less than three months after extreme rains in Henan province left more than 300 dead. In neighbouring Hebei province, a bus fell into a flooded river. State media said three people had died, and 11 of the 51 on board were missing. In Shanxi, China's Meteorological Administration also told local media that heavy and prolonged rainfall and storms had hampered rescue efforts. Shanxi is also home to a number of ancient monuments which are at major risk from the severe rainfall. More than 120,000 people have been urgently transferred and resettled, and 17,000 homes have collapsed across Shanxi province, authorities told the Xinhua news agency. Four police officers died as a result of a landslide, according to the state-run Global Times, although information about other casualties has not been released. The Shanxi flooding may have been worse than the floods in Henan earlier this year, it added. Shanxi's provincial capital Taiyuan saw average rainfall of around 185.6mm last week, compared with the 25mm it saw in October between 1981 and 2010. Global Times spoke to a resident from Ji county on the Yellow River. "This year, the level of the Yellow River is particularly high," she told the paper. "Some houses in rural areas collapsed in the flood, but people were relocated in advance."Rescuers in Taiyuan reportedly used megaphones to tell stranded people: "Hold the children above your head, the elderly and women are given priority to go ashore. Don't panic, everyone will be rescued." Shanxi is a major coal-producing province and the government was forced to halt operations at mines and chemical factories as a result of the rain. China is already facing an energy shortage which has caused power cuts. The government has been limiting electricity usage at ports and factories. The local government said it had suspended output at 60 coal mines, 372 non-coal mines and 14 dangerous chemical factories in the province. Operations had already been stopped at 27 other coal mines on 4 October.
How Much Plastic Is Floating in the Mediterranean? --Its densely populated coastline combined with its limited connection to the Atlantic Ocean makes the Mediterranean Sea a hot spot for plastic pollution.But how much plastic is actually floating in the sea, and where does it end up? A new study published inFrontiers in Marine Science this month used a model to determine that there are around 3,760 metric tons (approximately 4,144.7 U.S. tons) of plastic in the Mediterranean."The present study was among the first attempts, where simulated distributions of plastics were compared with existing observations in the Mediterranean," study lead author Dr. Kostas Tsiaras of the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research told EcoWatch in an email. "The developed model showed a reasonable skill in reproducing the observed distributions of plastics in the marine environment and thus can be used to assess the current status of plastic pollution in the Mediterranean."Scientists already know that plastic pollution in the Mediterranean is a major problem. In 2018, WWF warnedthat the body of water famous for its beaches and seafood risked becoming a "sea of plastic," which made up 95 percent of the trash polluting its waters and beaches. This has serious consequences for the region'smarine life and human communities."Marine organisms are known to ingest or get entangled with plastic litter, with the consequences sometimes being fatal," Tsiaras said, pointing to a 2019 study of toothed-whale strandings in Greece. The study looked at 34 strandings and discovered plastic in nine of the marine mammals' stomachs, determining that it was likely fatal in three instances. Another study from 2018 found that more than a third of the sperm whales found dead in the eastern Mediterranean since 2001 were killed by plastic.Another major concern is the way that microplastics may be ingested by smaller animals and microorganisms, then work their way up the marine food web to larger and larger animals, including humans."Microplastics enter also the human diet through seafood, the most likely pathways being mussels, clams and small pelagic fish, which are commonly consumed without removing digestive tracts, where microplastics are concentrated," Tsiaras explained.
Watch: Japan's Largest Active Volcano Violently Erupts; Warnings Issued Japan's largest active volcano violently erupted on Wednesday, prompting the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to warn about lava flows and falling rocks. JMA issued a level 3 on a scale of 5 alerts for Mount Aso, a popular destination on the main southern island of Kyushu. A level 3 means "do not approach the volcano" and urged tourists and residents to avoid entering the danger zone due to the risk of falling rocks and pyroclastic flows about half a mile around the volcano. Around 1143 local time (0243GMT), a column of ash discharged more than 2.1 miles into the atmosphere. There have been no reports of casualties, but officials told local media outlets that authorities are searching for hikers who had been trapped or injured."Caution is warranted even in far-away areas downwind, as the wind may carry not just ash but also pebbles," JMA official Tomoaki Ozaki told reporters, warning that toxic gases may also have been emitted.Mount Aso had a minor eruption in 2019, while Japan's most devastating volcanic disaster in nine decades killed 63 people on Mount Ontake in September 2014.Japan is one of the most volcanically active countries globally, sitting on the "Ring of Fire," where quakes and volcanic eruptions are common. Another problem area in the world is the ongoing volcanic eruption on La Palma, one of Spain's Canary Islands, off northwestern Africa, for over a month.
Powerful phreatic explosion at Mount Asosan, Alert Level raised, Japan - (videos) A powerful phreatic explosion took place at Asosan's Nakadake crater at 02:43 UTC (14:43 JST) on October 20, 2021, prompting the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to raise the Alert Level from 2 to 3 at 02:48 UTC. The eruption came one week after volcanic tremors detected under the volcano suggested hot water and magma are moving underground. While there were no reports of injuries, the eruption produced pyroclastic flows that streamed about 1.3 km (0.8 miles) west of the crater and ejected large volcanic rocks nearly 1 km (0.62 miles) to the south.1 Ash cloud reached a height of 3.5 km (11 500 feet) above the crater. Local police have confirmed that 11 people who were climbing the volcano have come down and are safe. JMA is urging people to refrain from entering the danger zone in Aso City, Takamori Town, and Minamioso Village. The 24 km (14.9 miles) wide Asosan caldera was formed during four major explosive eruptions from 300 000 to 90 000 years ago. These produced voluminous pyroclastic flows that covered much of Kyushu.The last of these, the Aso-4 eruption, produced more than 600 km3 (144 mi3) of airfall tephra and pyroclastic-flow deposits.A group of 17 central cones was constructed in the middle of th e caldera, one of which, Nakadake, is one of Japan's most active volcanoes. It was the location of Japan's first documented historical eruption in 553 AD.
High-level eruption at Manam volcano, ash to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l., P.N.G. (satellite videos) A powerful eruption started at Manam volcano, Papua New Guinea at around 22:40 UTC on October 19, 2021, ejecting ash up to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) above sea level. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red. At 00:00 UTC on October 20, ash was reported rising up to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l., with another plume to 10.6 km (35 000 feet) a.s.l.1 A series of high-level eruptions were reported at the volcano beginning on December 8, 2018, and lasting through January 24, 2019:
Asteroid 2021 UL flew past Earth at 0.09 LDA newly-discovered asteroid designated 2021 UL flew past Earth at a distance of 0.09 LD / 0.00024 AU (35 900 km / 22 300 miles) from the center of our planet at 12:13 UTC on October 16, 2021. This is the 107th known asteroid to flyby Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the 13th so far this month. The object was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona on October 16, on the same day of its close approach. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 2.3 and 5.2 m (7.5 - 17 feet).
The climate disaster is here - The world has already heated up by around 1.2C, on average, since the preindustrial era, pushing humanity beyond almost all historical boundaries. Cranking up the temperature of the entire globe this much within little more than a century is, in fact, extraordinary, with the oceans alone absorbing the heat equivalent of five Hiroshima atomic bombs dropping into the water every second.Until now, human civilization has operated within a narrow, stable band of temperature. Through the burning of fossil fuels, we have now unmoored ourselves from our past, as if we have transplanted ourselves onto another planet. The last time it was hotter than now was at least 125,000 years ago, while the atmosphere has more heat-trapping carbon dioxide in it than any time in the past two million years, perhaps more.Since 1970, the Earth’s temperature has raced upwards faster than in any comparable period. The oceans have heated up at a rate not seen in at least 11,000 years. “We are conducting an unprecedented experiment with our planet,” said Hayhoe. “The temperature has only moved a few tenths of a degree for us until now, just small wiggles in the road. But now we are hitting a curve we’ve never seen before.”No one is entirely sure how this horrifying experiment will end but humans like defined goals and so, in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, nearly 200 countries agreed to limit the global temperature rise to “well below” 2C, with an aspirational goal to keep it to 1.5C. The latter target was fought for by smaller, poorer nations, aware that an existential threat of unlivable heatwaves, floods and drought hinged upon this ostensibly small increment. “The difference between 1.5C and 2C is a death sentence for the Maldives,” said Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, president of the country, to world leaders at the United Nations in September. There is no huge chasm after a 1.49C rise, we are tumbling down a painful, worsening rocky slope rather than about to suddenly hit a sheer cliff edge – but by most standards the world’s governments are currently failing to avert a grim fate. “We are on a catastrophic path,” said António Guterres, secretary general of the UN. “We can either save our world or condemn humanity to a hellish future.”
Joe Biden Is in No Position to Lecture the World on Climate Change --“Nothing would fundamentally change,” Joe Biden reassured donors at a fundraising event at the Carlyle Hotel in Manhattan in June 2019, amid the backdrop of his presidential primary bid. So far he has kept his word.It has now been nearly a year since Biden entered the White House. During his first week in office, he rejoined the Paris Agreement, vowed to stop oil and gas drilling on public lands, and committed to passing a historic infrastructure package that would create millions of well-paid union jobs.It was no Green New Deal, but the US administration appeared to have at least listened to the Left’s demands. Sunrise Movement climate activists, Bernie Sanders and other progressive groups were reportedly given a seat at the table to negotiate the administration’s agenda. Biden established new climate offices – an international one led by the former secretary of state, John Kerry, and a domestic one led by Gina McCarthy. In April, he even hosted world leaders to announce a new US target to reduce emissions by 50-52% from 2005 levels by 2030. And soon, Biden will head to the UN climate change conference, COP26, in Glasgow, Scotland, with nearly his entire cabinet in tow, to lecture the world on the need to transition to green energy as soon as possible to limit global warming to 1.5℃.He is departing from a city lined with climate activists demanding that the administration revoke the permit for Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline, which will transport oil from Canada to the US, and declare a climate emergency (which he has the authority to do without congressional approval). And he leaves a congress whittling down his signature legislation ahead of an impending 31 October deadline set by house speaker Nancy Pelosi. (The White House denied this deadline on Tuesday.)“Biden is going into COP26 still without any climate laws on the book,” Kate Aronoff, climate reporter at The New Republic and author of ‘Overheated’, told me last week.“There was a lot of hopeful rhetoric at the start of the administration, and it’s true that the Biden White House has some of the most ambitious climate pledges and commitments of any Democratic administration to date, but there’s still nothing there.” So what is Biden’s climate legacy thus far – and what can he unilaterally do? I’ve been speaking to experts over the past week and have found a deep frustration at not just the lack of congressional action or political will, but at a failure by Biden to directly confront the US’s deeply entrenched fossil fuel industry.
Leaks Show Attempts to Weaken UN Climate Report, Greenpeace Says - Australia, Saudi Arabia and Japan were among countries that have tried to make changes to an upcoming UN climate report outlining ways to curb global warming, environmental organization Greenpeace reported on Thursday, citing a major leak of documents.The documents seen by Greenpeace's Unearthed team consist of comments made by governments and other interested bodies on the draft report of an internationally composed working group of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report is due to be released next year.Although most of the comments submitted to the IPCC by national governments were intended to improve the report, several major coal, oil, beef and animal feed-producing nations pressed for changes to suit their economic interests, Unearthed reported.The attempts at lobbying were brought to light just days before the COP26 climate negotiations open in Glasgow, Scotland. The conference is seen by many as crucial in determining whether human-made global warming will cause irreparable damage to the planet.In one comment seen by Unearthed, a senior official from Australia questioned the report's finding, considered as incontrovertible by scientists, that phasing out coal-fired power stations was a significant step toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming. Australia derives a large part of its national income from coal exports.Major beef and animal feed producers Brazil and Argentina lobbied the IPCC team to remove mention of plant-based diets and reduction of meat and dairy consumption as being beneficial to the climate, Unearthed said.The leaked comments showed Saudi Arabia, Iran, Australia, Japan and OPEC, a group of petroleum exporting countries, all arguing that carbon capture and storage could be used to prevent greenhouse gas emissions from industrial sites rather than stopping CO2 production at the source. This goes against research saying that previously employed methods of keeping CO2 out of the atmosphere have been largely unsuccessful. OPEC is particularly against phasing out fossil fuels and, according to the leaks, told the report authors to cut the sentence: "More efforts are required to actively phase out all fossil fuels in the energy sector, rather than relying on fuel switching alone."
Fossil fuel production 'dangerously out of sync' with global climate targets, UN warns - — As world leaders prepare for one of the most important climate summits ever held, U.N.-backed research shows governments are collectively planning to extract far more fossil fuels than would be consistent with global climate targets. The United Nations Environment Programme's annual production gap report, published on Wednesday, found governments were on track to produce more than twice the levels of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be needed to keep rising global temperatures to below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Ahead of the COP26 climate summit in just over a week, politicians and business leaders are under immense pressure to meet the demands of the climate emergency by delivering on promises made as part of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. The Paris climate accord aims to limit global heating to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably to limit warming to the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. While every fraction of a degree matters, the aspirational goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius is regarded as particularly important because beyond this level, so-called tipping points become more likely. The UNEP's report finds most major oil and gas producers are planning on increasing production out to 2030 and beyond, while several major coal producers are also planning on continuing or increasing production. By the end of the decade, government's production plans and projections were forecast to lead to around 240% more coal, 57% more oil and 71% more gas than would be consistent with limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The findings reaffirm the yawning gap between meaningful climate action and the rhetoric of policymakers and business leaders publicly touting their commitment to the so-called "energy transition." Burning fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, is the chief driver of the climate crisis. Yet, despite a flurry of net-zero emission goals and increased pledges of many countries, some of the largest oil, gas and coal producers have failed to outline how they plan to drastically scale down fossil fuel use. The world's leading climate scientists warned in early August that limiting global heating to close to 1.5 degrees Celsius or even 2 degrees Celsius would be beyond reach in the next two decades without immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Manchin Seeks to Gut Key Climate Provision From Infrastructure Bill as West Virginia Suffers Worsening Floods --Climate change is driving increasing flooding in West Virginia, overwhelming aging infrastructure and dumping raw sewage into waterways, The New York Times;reports, and West Virginians will suffer disproportionately as climate change continues to worsen. Meanwhile, their Senator, Democrat Joe Manchin has told the White House he strongly opposes a key, though relatively inexpensive, provision of the Build Back Better Act, according to reports from numerous outlets. The Clean Energy Performance Program, to which Manchin objects, incentivizes utilities to increase the amount of clean energy they supply to their customers. Manchin's opposition puts the inclusion of the CEPP in the final legislation into serious jeopardy, and the reports were met with harsh condemnation from climate advocates."This is absolutely the most important climate policy in the package," climate and energy policy expert Leah Stokes told The New York Times. "We fundamentally need it to meet our climate goals. That's just the reality. And now we can't. So this is pretty sad."Manchin has expressed concern about the overall cost of the bill, which is paid for by closing tax loopholes and increasing rates on wealthy individuals and corporations, but the CEPP costs just $150 billion out of the initial $3.5 trillion proposal. Manchin, who once shot a bullet through climate legislation in a TV ad, pulled down more than $400,000 of his $1.6 million Q3 fundraising haul from the oil and gas industry.
As Manchin Blocks Climate Plan, His State Can’t Hold Back Floods - The New York Times — In Senator Joe Manchin’s hometown, a flood-prone hamlet of about 200 homes that hugs a curve on a shallow creek, the rain is getting worse.Those storms swell the river, called Buffalo Creek, inundating homes along its banks. They burst the streams that spill down the hills on either side of this former coal-mining town, pushing water into basements. They saturate the ground, seeping into Farmington’s aging pipes and overwhelming its sewage treatment system.Climate change is warming the air, allowing it to hold more moisture, which causes more frequent and intense rainfall. And no state in the contiguous United States is more exposed to flood damage than West Virginia, according to data released last week.From the porch of his riverfront house, Jim Hall, who is married to Mr. Manchin’s cousin, recounted how rescue workers got him and his wife out of their house with a rope during a flood in 2017. He described helping his neighbors, Mr. Manchin’s sister and brother-in-law, clear out their basement when a storm would come. He calls local officials when he smells raw sewage in the river.“These last few years here in West Virginia, we’ve had unbelievable amounts of rain,” Mr. Hall said. “We’ve seriously considered not staying.”Mr. Manchin, a Democrat whose vote is crucial to passing his party’s climate legislation, is opposed to its most important provision that would compel utilities to stop burning oil, coal and gas and instead use solar, wind and nuclear energy, which do not emit the carbon dioxide that is heating the planet. Last week, the senator made his opposition clear to the Biden administration, which is now scrambling to come up with alternatives he would accept.Mr. Manchin has rejected any plan to move the country away from fossil fuels because he said it would harm West Virginia, a top producer of coal and gas. Mr. Manchin’s own finances are tied to coal: he founded a family coal brokerage that paid him half a million dollars in dividends last year.But when it comes to climate, there’s also an economic toll from inaction.The new data shows that Mr. Manchin’s constituents stand to suffer disproportionately as climate change intensifies. Unlike those in other flood-exposed states, most residents in mountainous West Virginia have little room to relocate from the waterways that increasingly threaten their safety.
Key to Biden's Climate Agenda Like to Be Cut Because of Manchin - The New York Times — The most powerful part of President Biden’s climate agenda — a program to rapidly replace the nation’s coal- and gas-fired power plants with wind, solar and nuclear energy — will likely be dropped from the massive budget bill pending in Congress, according to congressional staffers and lobbyists familiar with the matter. Senator Joe Manchin III, the Democrat from coal-rich West Virginia whose vote is crucial to passage of the bill, has told the White House that he strongly opposes the clean electricity program, according to three of those people. As a result, White House staffers are now rewriting the legislation without that climate provision, and are trying to cobble together a mix of other policies that could also cut emissions. A White House spokesman, Vedant Patel, declined to comment on the specifics of the bill, saying, “the White House is laser focused on advancing the president’s climate goals and positioning the United States to meet its emission targets in a way that grows domestic industries and good jobs.” A spokeswoman for Mr. Manchin, Sam Runyon, wrote in an email, “Senator Manchin has clearly expressed his concerns about using taxpayer dollars to pay private companies to do things they’re already doing. He continues to support efforts to combat climate change while protecting American energy independence and ensuring our energy reliability.” West Virginia’s other senator, Republican Shelley Moore Capito, said she was “vehemently opposed” to the clean electricity program because it is “designed to ultimately eliminate coal and natural gas from our electricity mix, and would be absolutely devastating for my state.” The $150 billion clean electricity program was the muscle behind Mr. Biden’s ambitious climate agenda. It would reward utilities that switched from burning fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, and penalize those that do not. Experts have said that the policy over the next decade would drastically reduce the greenhouse gases that are heating the planet and that it would be the strongest climate change policy ever enacted by the United States. “This is absolutely the most important climate policy in the package,” said Leah Stokes, an expert on climate policy, who has been advising Senate Democrats on how to craft the program. “We fundamentally need it to meet our climate goals. That’s just the reality. And now we can’t. So this is pretty sad.” The setback also means that President Biden will have a weakened hand when he travels to Glasgow in two weeks for a major United Nations climate change summit. He had hoped to point to the clean electricity program as evidence that the United States, which is historically the largest emitter of planet-warming pollution, was serious about changing course and leading a global effort to fight climate change. Mr. Biden has vowed that the United States will cut its emissions 50 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. The rest of the world remains deeply wary of the country’s commitment to tackling global warming after four years in which former President Donald J. Trump openly mocked the science of climate change and enacted policies that encouraged more drilling and burning of fossil fuels. “This will create a huge problem for the White House in Glasgow,”
Manchin's pushback against key climate policy leaves WV coal industry satisfied, climate advocates wanting answers - U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin’s pushback against what advocates say is the most critical climate measure in a social services and climate budget bill that includes much of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda has West Virginia environmentalists on edge. West Virginia’s Democrat senior senator has questioned the need for the proposed Clean Electricity Performance Program, a $150 billion plan that would authorize grants for electricity providers that increase clean electricity use by 4% or more annually from 2023 through 2030 and penalties for those that don’t.Manchin, who has extensive financial coal industry ties, has told the White House that he strongly opposes the program, The New York Times reported Friday evening. Manchin spokeswoman Sam Runyon emphasized the senator’s unhappiness with the program when asked for comment. Climate advocates have identified the Clean Electricity Performance Program as the policy in the proposed $3.5 trillion, 10-year budget bill that would enable the most progress toward the immediate and large-scale reduction in greenhouse gas emissions needed to avoid the most devastating, irreversible effects of climate change.Manchin’s support is crucial in an evenly divided Senate and his chairmanship of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.Program proponents predict its direct pay incentive would keep ratepayers from bearing the cost of the energy transition.In a letter addressed to Manchin on Friday, before The New York Times report, the West Virginia Climate Alliance — a coalition of 18 environmental, faith-based, civil rights and civic organizations — endorsed the Clean Electricity Performance Program and warned the senator that the nation’s transition to clean energy will “simply not happen fast enough” if the program is not enacted.The Climate Alliance argued that West Virginia, the nation’s second-largest coal producer behind Wyoming, would benefit disproportionately from the program.“[I]f Senator Manchin now wants to scrap the CEPP, it is incumbent on him to propose alternative means of achieving a 45% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions,” Climate Alliance co-founder Perry Bryant said in an email.That’s the percentage from 2010 levels by which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has indicated emissions must decline by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and stave off the worst effects of a warming world.“Senator Manchin can change this trajectory,” West Virginia Environmental Council Vice President Sandra Fallon said in a statement. “We urge him to seize this historic opportunity and put the U.S. on a path to real climate solutions.”Manchin has made $4.35 million since 2012 from stock he owns in Enersystems Inc., the Fairmont-based coal brokerage he founded in 1988, according to his U.S. Senate financial disclosures.“We’re eager, as the rest of the nation is, to find out specifically what Senator Manchin is thinking of, if it’s not the Clean Electricity Performance Program, that he thinks makes sense or [if it] won’t work, what does he believe will work?” said West Virginia Rivers Coalition Executive Director Angie Rosser, one of the Climate Alliance members who signed the alliance’s letter to Manchin.“Nobody says it better than Senator Manchin when he insists we need to ‘innovate, not eliminate,’” West Virginia Coal Association President Chris Hamilton said in an email, echoing Manchin’s energy policy mantra opposed to cutting fossil fuels from the nation’s resource portfolio.Hamilton said he supports Manchin’s emphasis on carbon emission control technologies. United Mine Workers of America spokesman Phil Smith expressed support for Manchin’s stance on the Clean Electricity Performance Program.“We have long said there needs to be a real pathway for the application of carbon capture and storage for coal included in any energy transition plan, both in terms of providing time for the technology to be installed at power plants and providing adequate incentives for utilities to want to install it,” Smith said in an email. “Neither of those objectives are included in the CEPP that is before the Senate right now.”Smith said the program fails to meet the labor union’s energy transition goals of creating new, well-paying union jobs for members who already have lost a coal industry job and providing an economic bridge for members who might lose their jobs to learn new skills, without falling into poverty.
A small part of the economy of a small state is poised to shape the future of the world - The Washington Post - Coal and West Virginia are inextricably linked, a tie that the state’s visitor’s bureau touts. But the industry has been in decline, a function of economic shifts like the decreased cost of natural gas. The increasingly obvious effects of climate change — warming that is heavily a function of greenhouse gases emitted from burning coal to generate electricity — has meant that the industry also faces increasing political and social pressure. While the state is home to only one-half of 1 percent of the country’s population, it also has 2 percent of the country’s senators. As the Democratic Party tries to put together a package of policies that will advance President Biden’s agenda, one of those two senators, Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), has reportedly made clear that West Virginia’s coal industry will continue to be protected — even though burning coal contributes to global warming and even though it employs only about 0.008 percent of the country. The proposal championed by Biden includes a policy that would encourage electricity generators to transition away from burning fossil fuels like coal. According to the New York Times, Manchin has insisted that the Democratic legislation drop the clean-energy transition effort. (His argument, it seems, is that the government doesn’t need to hasten a shift that’s already underway.) Biden, eager for a policy victory, is apparently poised to acquiesce. It’s useful to remember just how small a part of the American economy the coal industry represents, much less the industry in West Virginia. In 2020, more than a quarter of coal industry jobs in the United States were in the state, according to the Energy Information Administration, but it amounted to only a bit over 11,000 people. This isn’t just miners, this is the whole industry: “all employees engaged in production, preparation, processing, development, maintenance, repair shop, or yard work at mining operations, including office workers.” And all of them combined add up to less than half of the student body at West Virginia University.Even in West Virginia itself, the mining industry makes up only a relatively small part of employment. In August, there were about 40,000 unemployed people, twice the number of jobs in the mining and logging industry overall. Mining and logging jobs make up only 3 percent of employment in the state, less than every other industry besides information technology. There are seven times as many government employees in West Virginia as in mining and logging.No senator wants to sign off on a policy that’s been framed (justifiably) as leading inexorably if slowly to the destruction of an industry in a state. I’m regularly reminded of 2009 research that showed how politicians are rewarded more for cleaning up disasters than for preventing them. In this case, Manchin is essentially casting the situation as a choice between disasters: forcing 11,000 West Virginians to seek new employment or continuing to contribute to global warming at a slowly eroding rate.
West Virginia Republicans slam Illinois Dem Casten for calling their state 'irrelevant part' of US economy - West Virginia Republicans are speaking out after an Illinois Democrat said their entire state is "an irrelevant part" of the national economy. Rep. Sean Casten, D-Ill., took the jab against the Mountain State in a comment to Politico on Monday while pushing the progressive Democrats’ Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP). Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., sent progressives scrambling to rework the climate agenda in the $3.5 trillion spending bill after he told the White House over the weekend that he would not support the program, spurring ire from progressives like Casten. "If you came and said to me, 'We will pass the CEPP as written but we will exempt West Virginia from it,’ I would take that deal," Casten told Politico. "Do I think that's possible? I mean, probably not, but that would be acceptable, right?" "Because West Virginia is an irrelevant part of our economy," he continued. Casten claimed in a lengthy Twitter thread on Sunday that nixing the CEPP from the multitrillion-dollar proposal would be the country deciding "that climate change isn't a problem" and that the proposal is the "most impactful part of the Build Back Better Act from a climate perspective." Rep. Carol Miller, R-W.Va., torched Casten’s comment as "the latest example of how out of touch Washington Democrats are with hardworking families in West Virginia and across the country." "This isn’t just about West Virginia, this is about every community that’s being left behind and forced to pay the bill for radical socialist policies," Miller told FOX Business in a Monday email statement. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., urged Manchin to keep up what he is doing on the legislative front. "West Virginia is home to hardworking, God fearing Americans," Mooney told FOX Business in an email statement. "For generations West Virginia coal has powered this nation." "I urge Sen. Manchin to continue to stand up for a commonsense, all-of-the-above energy approach," he continued. West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican, blasted Casten for the shot in a Monday tweet, warning the plan "would devastate West Virginia’s economy – and in turn destroy communities and families." "But according to [Casten], that’s okay because ‘West Virginia is an irrelevant part of our economy,’" she wrote. The CEPP would pay out $150 billion to energy companies to ramp up their increase of renewable sources while fining companies that do not.
Manchin Cashes in on Coal as West Virginians Struggle to Pay Their Bills --West Virginia senator Joe Manchin's objection to a key climate provision of Democrat's infrastructure legislation would benefit many of his most valued constituents. West Virginians, on the other hand, are suffering under the strain of skyrocketing costs of coal- and gas-powered electricity.Coal mining, oil and gas, and gas pipeline companies gave more to Manchin during the current election cycle — Manchin is not up for reelection until 2024 — than any other member of Congress, The Guardian reports.Oil and gas companies (their employees and PACs) from outside West Virginia have poured more than 10 times more into Manchin's campaign coffers this cycle than all in-state contributors combined, according to the Charleston Gazette-Mail.Manchin has also pulled down $4.35 million in personal income since 2012 from stock he owns in Enersystems, the coal brokerage he founded in 1988. Manchin's son controls the company, and its stock comprises a majority of Manchin's personal assets. Coal accounts for 89% of West Virginia's electricity generation, more than four times higher than the national average. For Felisha Chase, of Charleston, the cost of coal-power is steep. With power bills twice the cost of her mortgage payment, she's still paying off last winter's electricity bill."It does feel wrong when your electric bill is more than your mortgage," Chase told CNN. "Around here the old adage is 'coal keeps the lights on.' Anyone struggling to keep their electric on knows it's more than the lights."
Where does mercurial Sinema really stand on green issues? - In 2019, a handful of Arizona environmentalists were excited to land a meeting with their state’s new Democratic senator, Kyrsten Sinema, to ask her to back a bill protecting land around the Grand Canyon. But they left the meeting in Phoenix somewhat confused. Sinema had the details of the bill down cold and told them she’d sponsor the legislation, but she ended their meeting quickly without offering any other insight on her environmental views. “If we had known it would only be five minutes, we would have cut the chit-chat. … It was brief but cordial,” said Sandy Bahr, the longtime director of the Arizona chapter of the Sierra Club who participated in the session. Indeed, Sinema’s views were so opaque that the Sierra Club declined to endorse her in the 2018 Senate race. Bahr said it was the only time she had met with Sinema since she was elected to the Senate, despite knowing her for close to 20 years and the senator being the swing vote on the president’s climate agenda. “I wish she would just share what she’s thinking,” added Bahr. The Phoenix meet-up is just one example of how the centrist Democrat, who has been the focus of intense speculation as one of two decisive votes on President Biden’s domestic agenda in the Senate, approaches environmental issues. A one-time member of the Green Party and an outspoken progressive who has since tacked away from those beginnings, she now prefers to focus on land, conservation and energy legislation impacting Arizona. She tends to be well-versed in policies ahead of meetings, hearings and votes, and often does not reveal her views until she is ready. Sinema’s idiosyncratic approach has frustrated progressives and green activists. Many in the nation’s capital continue to wonder what climate positions she might ultimately support in Biden’s budget reconciliation package. Unlike Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has publicly threatened to scuttle a major climate push for months over new emissions regulations, the Arizona senator has never publicly supported nor fully ruled out a Clean Electricity Performance Program or a carbon tax. Her lack of transparency has made Sinema one of the most powerful figures on Capitol Hill, a freshman senator playing an outsize role in shaping what may be the most significant climate law ever written. Earlier this week, she traveled to the White House for a one-on-one meeting with Biden. Sinema’s intentions have also become something of Rorschach test. Greens continue to believe she will back strong climate action, while opponents say she could still buck her party. “I think she does want to do something about climate. Obviously, we absolutely fervently hope and expect for her to be there to support the climate provisions, and also the final package that can get passed and signed by the president as fast as possible, because we’re really out of time when it comes to the climate crisis,” said Tiernan Sittenfeld, senior vice president for government affairs for the League of Conservation Voters, who said her view is based on private conversations with the senator as well as her staff.
North Dakota Approves First Class VI Carbon Capture, Storage Project - North Dakota’s regulatory framework for geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is leading the nation again as the North Dakota Industrial Commission approved the first Class VI well in North Dakota on Oct. 19. North Dakota was the first state to receive primacy of Class VI wells from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2018, followed only by Wyoming in 2020. Orders written by the Department of Mineral Resources (DMR), and signed on Oct. 19 by the Commission, approved Red Trail Energy LLC (RTE) to geologically store CO2 from the RTE ethanol facility located near Richardton. Orders signed also determine the financial responsibilities and approve of the amalgamation of the storage reservoir pore space required to operate the facility. The RTE facility currently emits an average of 180,000 metric tons of high-purity CO2 annually from the fermentation process during ethanol production. This approval allows RTE to commercially capture (dehydrate and compress) and inject the 180,000-metric-ton-per-year CO2 stream into the Broom Creek Formation on RTE property for permanent geologic CO2 storage. “We commend Red Trail Energy for their innovative and rigorous work to submit an application that sets the standard for future carbon capture applications,” the Commission said. “Red Trail’s work with the Energy & Environmental Research Center has resulted in a project that assures that carbon dioxide can be safely stored for generations.” The North Dakota Industrial Commission is made up of Gov. Doug Burgum, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem and Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring. Wells are categorized in different classes by the EPA. A Class VI well is used to inject CO2 into deep rock formations for long-term storage—also referred to as geologic sequestration. Geologic carbon sequestration is a method of securing carbon dioxide in deep geologic formations to reduce or eliminate its release to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide can be captured from stationary sources such as power plants and other large industrial facilities, compressed to a fluid state, and injected deep underground into permeable and porous geologic strata in which it will remain isolated. The geologic formation in which the gas is stored must be overlain by another layer of impermeable rock to seal in the injected CO2. “North Dakota researchers began evaluating the state’s resources 18 years ago, and North Dakota policymakers began developing the legal and regulatory framework for Class VI geological storage 12 years ago, DMR Director Lynn Helms said. “The approval of the RTE permits marks a significant milestone in the economic development of North Dakota’s abundant geological resources.”
Financing, engineering setbacks plague North Dakota's $1B carbon capture project | S&P Global Market Intelligence - The U.S. has seen lawmakers from both parties agree that carbon capture is one important way to rein in greenhouse gas emissions and rural communities are rallying around plans to retrofit large American coal power plants with the technology to save jobs.But one of the most high-profile carbon capture projects in the U.S., the $1 billion Project Tundra in North Dakota, is facing months of delays after its engineering contractor apparently pulled out in March. The Minnkota Power Cooperative Inc., which is spearheading the project at its 692-MW Milton R. Young coal-fired power plant, has acknowledged it is also having difficulty securing private-sector funding"It's not clear why investors would sink a billion dollars into any risky and controversial coal carbon capture proposal, much less one facing such major outstanding questions," said Joe Smyth, a research manager with the Energy and Policy Institute. The watchdog group obtained copies of reports the electric co-op filed with the U.S. Energy Department detailing Project Tundra's struggles.Minnkota received a $9.8 million grant from the DOE in 2019 for the front-end engineering work that has now been delayed by a year. The co-op said in its latest quarterly progress report to the DOE that it is talking with other potential construction contractors but that the process "is progressing slower than anticipated."Minnkota's former contractor Fluor Corp. could continue to work on Project Tundra in a more limited capacity and bring in additional partners, noted John Thompson, a technology and markets director for the Clean Air Task Force who monitors U.S. carbon capture projects. He said Fluor likely did not walk away from the contractor job over concerns with the technology but rather due to its corporatewide push away from fixed price to reimbursable contracts."They're shifting their portfolio and have been pretty candid about that," Thompson said. "They're restructuring all their stuff to be less reliable on fixed contracts."Neither Minnkota Power nor Fluor responded to requests for comment.In all, Project Tundra received $43 million in initial DOE grants under former President Donald Trump. The electric co-op said earlier this year it is seeking a $700 million DOE loan guarantee and expects to tap into a new $250 million state loan program designed specifically for Project Tundra that was signed into law in May.Private-sector support has been harder to secure, however. Stacey Dahl, a senior manager of external affairs for Minnkota, described the project's finance challenges at an event Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., held with The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO David Solomon in Bismarck on Sept. 9."We paired with a multi-national bank that had a real interest in this project," Dahl told Solomon. "And it wasn't long into that relationship that the parent company made the decision that [it would make] no more investment in coal. No more relationships with coal…even if it's supposed to have a technological solution."Goldman Sachs Environmental Policy Framework prohibits the investment firm from financing new coal-fired generation anywhere in the world unless it is outfitted with carbon capture and storage or some other technology that eliminates all or most climate-warming emissions. Solomon offered to put Dahl in touch with someone at his company but cautioned that new financing opportunities could be hard to come by."The reality that I think we all have to accept is that the institutional capital world is done with coal," Solomon said. " I just don't think [it] is going backward on this."
Company announces first-of-a-kind $3B renewable hydrogen project - A new partnership led by a veteran fossil fuel executive announced plans today to build what could be the country’s biggest hub for renewable hydrogen, even as billions in potential public funds for the technology face an uncertain fate in Congress. The Mississippi Clean Hydrogen Hub, as it’s known, would use newly constructed arrays of solar panels to generate electricity, which in turn would power electrolyzers that split hydrogen from water molecules. The zero-carbon hydrogen would be stored in underground salt caverns — also to be newly built — then piped or trucked away to serve as fuel for fuel-cell vehicles or be blended into natural gas systems. Jackson-based Hy Stor Energy LP, which will direct construction of what will be the firm’s first major project, is leading the plan. Its chief executive, Laura Luce, is an expert on natural gas storage and former executive for Spire, NGS Energy and Enron North America. Hy Stor is working with Connor Clark & Lunn, an energy infrastructure firm that will serve as the financing partner. The jungle of new clean hydrogen infrastructure envisioned by developers echoes the "hub" concept that federal lawmakers and Energy Department officials have said they want to build. Jose Bermudez, a France-based energy analyst for hydrogen and alternative fuels at the International Energy Agency, wrote in an email that the Mississippi project was "definitively a significant announcement and likely the largest in the USA" of its kind — at least for now. Luce predicted her company’s plans in Mississippi would become "the blueprint for future green hydrogen projects,” revitalizing local economies while contributing to the energy transition. Yet it’s unclear whether the plans will fully materialize.
'No commercial case for green hydrogen' yet: Siemens Energy CEO - The CEO of Siemens Energy has spoken of the challenges facing the green hydrogen sector, telling CNBC that there was "no commercial case" for it at this moment in time. In comments made during a discussion at CNBC's Sustainable Future Forum on Tuesday, Christian Bruch outlined several areas that would need attention in order for green hydrogen to gain momentum. "We need to define boundary conditions which make this technology and these cases commercially viable," Bruch, who was speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, said. "And we need an environment, obviously, of cheap electricity and in this regard, abundant renewable energy available to do this." This was not there yet, he argued. Hydrogen can be produced in a number of ways. One method includes using electrolysis, with an electric current splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen. If the electricity used in this process comes from a renewable source such as wind or solar then some call it green or renewable hydrogen. While there is excitement about the potential of green hydrogen in some quarters, it's currently expensive to produce. Indeed, National Grid describes grey hydrogen as being the "most common form of hydrogen production" today. This grey hydrogen, it says, "is created from natural gas, or methane, using steam methane reformation but without capturing the greenhouse gases made in the process." In his remarks, Bruch also stressed the importance of building up an industry to support the commercialization of green hydrogen. Technical systems and an operational knowledge built up over 10 to 15 years were crucial, he explained, noting that this was what one normally saw in the power industry. "This is all still to come to make it … a commercial system," Bruch said. "So the biggest problem is [that] under the current boundary conditions there is not yet a commercial case for green hydrogen." Another participant in Tuesday's discussion was Marco Alverà, the CEO of Italian energy infrastructure giant Snam. Among other things, he talked about the importance of establishing a framework to encourage the development of more sustainable industry.
Analyzing the impact of biodiesel and it causing a potential issue --Farmer and Agricultural Economist Michael Smith, “Farmers need more space for cropsto meet mounting demand”- AgResource | Reuters - Dan Basse of AgResource Co. analyzes the impacts of biodiesel and is throwing up a potential issue. Reuters interviewed an agronomist who is closely watching the budget reconciliations and the spending of a $350 billion yearly budget for the next 10 years at the federal level. Soyoil use is front and center in agriculture and global agricultural economics.Joe Biden’s climate agenda is set to trigger a boom in soyoil use, reinforcing a worldwide picture of rising consumption of staple crops driven by China for other uses. As told by Dan Basse, president of consultancy AgResource Co, the GrainCom conference in Geneva. At the same time, THE combined global yields of major grain crops appear to have levelled out in the past five years.Soyoil is superior to mining crude as the carbon captured by the soy is stored as a lipid. It is then pressed, purified, and burned. Essentially it is returning the same captured carbon back into the atmosphere. The soy plant itself is left to composting and turning into soil. However, farming method also need to be front and center to support such demand.Conventional tillage would not allow a zero sum carbon offset. By some measures, tillage could throw another 30% of carbon dioxide into the air by aerating soil microbes. Tillage also leaves damp soil bare to dry out, which in turn requires more water to grow a crop. Such tillage would increase the need to pump irrigation water or haul tanks onto a field exacerbating the carbon issue. Erosion is also an issue as good topsoil and soil inputs (fertilizers) wash out easily into streams and rivers. On one hand, we start offsetting the dirty oil and gas mining. While on the other hand, we lock 40 million additional acres into a monocropped landscape having the potential to be carbon neutral The infrastructure and methods will need some work to support such a venture.
Sustainable jet fuel targets could push food prices higher, Ryanair CEO O'Leary warns - The CEO of Ryanair has acknowledged the need for ambitious sustainable aviation fuel targets while also expressing concerns about how food prices could be affected. During a discussion at CNBC's Sustainable Future Forum on Wednesday, Michael O'Leary said his firm was investing "a lot of money" with Trinity College Dublin on research into sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF. In April, the two organizations launched a sustainable aviation research center backed by a 1.5 million euro ($1.75 million) donation from the airline. As well as focusing on SAF, the center will look at noise mapping and zero-carbon propulsion systems for aircraft. Ryanair has itself set a target of powering 12.5% of its flights with SAF by the year 2030. But speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, O'Leary said he thought it was "a very ambitious target – I'm not sure we'll get there." He went on to articulate his feelings about the wider effects of increasing SAF usage. "I do worry over the longer term, though, on sustainable aviation fuels … what's that going to do to food prices going forward?""I think we're going to reach a point in the next 10 or 20 years where there will be challenges posed not just for the airline industry, but for industry in general, around sustainable aviation fuels where it may have an upward impact on food prices." Although the European Union Aviation Safety Agency says there's "not a single internationally agreed definition" of sustainable aviation fuel, the overarching idea is that it can be used to reduce an aircraft's emissions. Aircraft-maker Airbus describes sustainable aviation fuels as being "made from renewable raw material," for example, "crops based or used cooking oil and animal fat." Despite his concerns, O'Leary said he was certain that ambitious targets needed to be put in place."The European Union has set a target of 5% of sustainable aviation fuel by 2030," he said. "We think we can do better than that – I think we'll get to 10%.""Whether we can get to 12 and a half percent, I'm not sure, but I know if we don't invest in the research and that technology now, we certainly won't get there."According to the International Energy Agency, carbon dioxide emissions from aviation "have risen rapidly over the past two decades," hitting almost 1 metric gigaton in 2019. This, it notes, equates to "about 2.8% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion."Elsewhere, the World Wildlife Fund describes aviation as "one of the fastest-growing sources of the greenhouse gas emissions driving global climate change." It adds that air travel is the most carbon intensive activity an individual can do.As concerns about sustainability and the environment mount, discussions about aviation have increasingly focused on how new innovations and ideas could reduce the sector's environmental footprint.
The crossroads of the energy transition and rural communities - Sarah Conley-Ballew knew she wanted a Nissan Leaf. She and others from a group of electric vehicle enthusiasts in her area took an informational field trip to the closest dealership that carried them. It was in Columbus, about 70 miles or so away from her home in Athens County, Ohio. After the visit, they each kept an eye on the inventory of Leafs as they arrived. When it came to be Conley-Ballew’s turn to buy, she knew it wasn’t going to be easy. “In order to get this Nissan Leaf back to Athens County, for each of us, it was like an odyssey,” she said. “The upper limit on the Leaf I got is 70 miles. I basically ended up 20 minutes from home and had to call a tow truck.” The Nissan Leaf is one of the most affordable electric vehicles on the market. The base model costs around $30,000. The range for them now is double what it was when Conley-Ballew was in the market several years ago. But the process to get an electric vehicle home to rural Athens County was not an easy one, even for a highly motivated person like Conley-Ballew. She’s the director for the sustainable energy program with Rural Action, a nonprofit based in southeast Ohio focused on building Appalachian Ohio’s economy in environmentally, socially and economically sustainable ways. “If you’re casually interested in electric vehicles, it’s incredibly difficult,” she said. This is what the energy transition looks like in rural areas. It’s not easy for those who already buy into all the benefits renewables, electric vehicles and energy efficiency have to offer. For those who are less willing, or less able, it could be impossible, at least without help.
With trash plant at death's door, is it time for state leadership? --When the trash-to-energy plant in Hartford’s South Meadows broke down in November 2018, garbage started piling up inside the facility’s two cavernous storage areas. And kept piling up. And piled up some more.The refuse was accumulating because operators could not hire enough trucks and drivers to haul it to out-of-state landfills.By January 2019, the facility was jammed floor-to-roof with thousands of tons of trash, and officials were days away from a lose-lose decision: either start storing garbage outside in the parking lot, or tell towns not to send any more trash.“Thank God we didn’t have a fire.”What saved the day was getting the plant repaired, partially in January and fully in March of 2019, so it could again burn garbage. The catastrophic breakdown in 2018-19 was neither the first nor the last time the aging and failing plant went on the fritz, but it was the most serious failure.Was it a harbinger, a dress rehearsal for a major trash calamity? It’s possible. Bad as it was, the 2018-19 breakdown did not trigger a sense of urgency to address what many insiders consider an impending crisis in the state’s solid waste management system, said MIRA ad hoc board member Thomas Swarr, a retired United Technologies engineer who lives in Hartford. “Is the plan to sit back and wait for a complete disaster, with trash piling up in the streets, before anybody does anything?” Swarr said.After years-long efforts to upgrade the plant with either private or public funds failed, the MIRA board voted late last year to shut the plant down by July 1, 2022, and truck about 500,000 tons of trash a year to out-of-state landfills. With the approximately 400,000 tons already being shipped out of state, more than a third of the state’s 2.4 million tons of garbage will be buried in another state. Hundreds of thousands of tons of construction and demolition debris, which is not counted or treated as municipal solid waste, also are shipped to out of state landfills by private contractors. Though he couldn’t line up enough trucks in 2018, Kirk was “cautiously optimistic” he could do it this time. He appears to have been right. Kirk told town officials during an online meeting on Oct. 14 that he’s received enough bids to transport and bury MIRA’s trash, possibly as far away as Alabama or Michigan. But even with an agreement, Kirk is still not out of the woods. There is the matter of keeping the plant going until June 30. “It’s held together with duct tape and chicken wire,” said Swarr, “and could fail catastrophically.” And there is the challenge of keeping the skilled plant operators on staff through the closing date. Facing the prospect of unemployment, they could jump to other jobs.
Dutch company agrees to spend $50 million to upgrade pollution controls at Iowa, Texas plants --A Dutch chemical company has reached an agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to invest $50 million in six U.S. manufacturing plants, including one in eastern Iowa, to resolve alleged state and federal clean air violations.The EPA said three LyondellBasell Industries' U.S. subsidiaries have agreed to upgrade operations at six petrochemical manufacturing facilities. One is in Clinton and the others are in Texas.Lyondell also will pay a $3.4 million civil penalty.The settlement, which the EPA and the U.S. Department of Justice announced this week, will eliminate thousands of tons of air pollution from industrial flares used to burn off waste gases at the facilities, the agencies say. According to a complaint filed against LyondellBasell, its companies failed to properly operate and monitor their industrial flares, resulting in excess emissions of air pollution. Well-operated flares should burn nearly all harmful waste gases, leaving only water and carbon dioxide.The agreement requires Lyondell to minimize the amount of waste gas it burns and increase the proportion of the gases the flares destroy, the EPA said.“This settlement will require LyondellBasell to install pollution control and emissions monitoring equipment at six facilities in Texas and Iowa, reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and other harmful gases by thousands of tons per year,” Larry Starfield, acting assistant administrator for the EPA’s office of enforcement and compliance assurance, said in a statement.“Those controls, plus a requirement for fence line monitoring of benzene emissions, will result in significant benefits for the local communities in Texas and Iowa,” Starfield said.The settlement is expected to reduce emissions of ozone-forming volatile organic compounds by almost 2,700 tons per year and emissions of toxic air pollutants, including benzene, by nearly 400 tons per year, the EPA said. The pollutants can cause significant harm to public health, the EPA said. For example, chronic exposure to benzene, which the federal government has classified as a carcinogen, can cause leukemia and adverse reproductive effects in women, among other health consequences, the EPA said.
Boosting transmission between East, West grids will lower costs: NREL - Adding transmission capacity between the Eastern and Western interconnections would reduce costs by allowing wind, solar and natural gas-fired generation to flow more freely across broad regions, according to a recently published study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Increasing transfer capacity between the two grids could produce $2.50 in benefits for every dollar spent on the new transmission facilities, NREL said Monday. "The ability to transfer [wind and solar] across regions could be incredibly valuable — whether that's in periods of power system stress, like extreme weather, or during a typical day when we want to take advantage of the best available resources," Josh Novacheck, NREL senior research engineer and technical lead for the study, said. Seven high-voltage links allow only 1,320 MW to move between the Eastern and Western interconnections, according to a pre-print version of the study published late last month in the journal IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. The interconnection facilities are aging rapidly, so replacing and upgrading them presents an opportunity for modernizing the U.S. electric grid, according to Greg Brinkman, NREL senior research engineer and co-author of the study. The study, first released a year ago, comes as the Biden administration, Congress and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission are considering ways to increase transmission development, which could help renewable energy facilities in remote areas reach major population centers. Divided by a seam that runs from Montana to New Mexico, the Eastern Interconnection hosts 700,000 MW of generating capacity and the Western Interconnection has about 250,000 MW, according to the report. In a multi-year research effort, NREL and its partners explored four options for bolstering the links between the U.S.'s two major interconnections, which largely operate independently of each other. The study found that increasing transmission capacity made the power system more flexible, allowing electric supply and demand to be balanced with less overall installed capacity. The researchers didn't include increased grid resilience as a benefit of adding transmission capacity so the gains from building more links between the interconnections could be higher, according to Brinkman. The study can help decision-makers evaluate ways to strengthen the grid, according to NREL. The study was finished in 2019, but the Department of Energy in October that year decided not to release it, according to a lawsuit filed by the Center for Biological Diversity in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. DOE political appointees feared the report could hurt the prospects for coal-fired generation, which the Trump administration supported, according to the environmental group.
Oil industry helped handpick members of Texas' power grid advisory group - Oil and gas industry groups provided a list of names to the Railroad Commission for appointment to a council formed in response to the February power crisis. All four of the industry's top choices were selected. Oil and gas industry groups had a heavy hand in choosing representatives to serve on a council intended to ensure energy and electricity operations continue during extreme weather conditions, emails provided to The Texas Tribune and confirmed by the Texas Railroad Commission show. The council, recently formalized by the Texas Legislature in the aftermath of the power crisis earlier this year is supposed to ensure the energy and electric industries meet “high priority human needs” and “address critical infrastructure concerns” — responsibilities lawmakers assigned to it after the previous, informal group failed to ensure natural gas suppliers could transport enough fuel to power plants during the February winter storm. The lack of fuel ultimately forced more electricity offline, lengthening the crisis for Texans, millions of whom lost power, heat and, at times, safe drinking water during the dayslong blackouts. The power outages, primarily caused by the inability of power plants to operate in the extreme cold, caused the deaths of as many as 700 people, according to a BuzzFeed analysis, and caused an estimated $86 billion to $129 billion in economic damage, according to The Perryman Group, a Texas economic firm.In response, lawmakers beefed up the Texas Energy Reliability Council in Senate Bill 3, a sweeping piece of legislation passed in the aftermath of the storm. The overhaul included formalizing the previously loose group of industry representatives into a 25-member council with regulators to head it, requiring the council to “foster communication and planning” to ensure energy and electricity are prepared to meet Texans’ needs, and assigning it a biennial report on the stability of the state’s electricity supply.The revamped council, known as TERC, is composed of electricity, energy and environmental regulators, as well as five participants each from the natural gas supply chain and the electric industry. Those industry representatives are appointed by state regulators, including the Railroad Commission.An email provided to the Tribune shows that the Texas Oil and Gas Association, one of the most influential oil and gas industry groups in Texas, provided a list of names to the Railroad Commission’s executive director for appointment to the council in August. The Railroad Commission of Texas regulates the oil and gas industry.Two months later, all four of the industry groups’ top choices were confirmed to the council by regulators.
COVID Contributes to Narragansett Electric Rate Increase; Old Leak-Prone Pipes Still in Use — Get ready to add higher Rhode Island heating bills to the list of knock-on effects from the coronavirus pandemic. Natural gas (methane) prices could increase nearly 7 percent this year for customers of National Grid, which operates in Rhode Island as the Narragansett Electric Co. According to an Oct. 13 Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission (PUC) hearing, the changes will raise average annual heating costs from $1,368 to $1,462 and could impact 7,700 customers heading into winter.According to Nathan Kocon, principal analyst for the Rhode Island jurisdiction at National Grid, the largest factor contributing to increased rates is the pandemic-related deferral of cost increases, as requested in Docket No. 5040 last year. According to Ryan Scheib, senior analyst at National Grid, 80-85 percent of low-income customers receive a 25 percent discount on gas service. These customers will continue to receive discounted gas rates.Amendments to National Grid’s distribution adjustment charge (DAC) will mark an average annual bill increase of $43.29, or 3.2 percent. Additional changes to gas cost recovery (GCR) factors will increase bills another $50.09, or 3.6 percent. The pandemic has likewise prevented the changeover of old gas pipes to newly installed residential pipes.According to Alan Nault, PUC’s chief regulatory analyst, National Grid anticipated installing 56 miles of replacement pipelines across the state and abandoning 62 miles of old lines. While 57 miles of pipeline were installed — just surpassing the target — Nault said only 30 miles were abandoned.During pipeline replacement, new mains are laid down and “at some point, the company then transfers customers over from the old main to the new main,” Nault said. Once every customer on a street has had their service transferred to the new main, the old — potentially leak-prone — pipeline can be abandoned.The process is typically swift but, according to Kocon, safety precautions and customer hesitancy surrounding COVID-19 has limited customer interaction and created delays in hooking up new mains.
Annual U.S. coal-fired electricity generation will increase for the first time since 2014 – EIA - We expect 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The U.S. electric power sector has been generating more electricity from coal-fired power plants this year as a result of significantly higher natural gas prices and relatively stable coal prices. This year, 2021, will yield the first year-over-year increase in coal generation in the United States since 2014.Coal and natural gas have been the two largest sources of electricity generation in the United States. In many areas of the country, these two fuels compete to supply electricity based on their relative costs. U.S. natural gas prices have been more volatile than coal prices, so the cost of natural gas often determines the relative share of generation provided by natural gas and coal.Because natural gas-fired power plants convert fuel to electricity more efficiently than coal-fired plants, natural gas-fired generation can have an economic advantage even if natural gas prices are slightly higher than coal prices. Between 2015 and 2020, the cost of natural gas delivered to electric generators remained relatively low and stable. This year, however, natural gas prices have been much higher than in recent years. The year-to-date delivered cost of natural gas to U.S. power plants has averaged $4.93 per million British thermal units (Btu), more than double last year’s price.The overall decline in U.S. electricity demand in 2020 and record-low natural gas prices led coal plants to significantly reduce the percentage of time that they generated power. In 2020, the utilization rate (known as thecapacity factor) of U.S. coal-fired generators averaged 40%. Before 2010, coal capacity factors routinely averaged 70% or more. This year’s higher natural gas prices have increased the average coal capacity factor to about 51%, which is almost the 2018 average. Although rising natural gas prices have resulted in more U.S. coal-fired generation than last year, this increase in coal generation will most likely not continue. The electric power sector has retired about 30% of its generating capacity at coal plants since 2010, and no new coal-fired capacity has come online in the United States since 2013. In addition, coal stocks at U.S. power plants are relatively low, and production at operating coal mines has not been increasing as rapidly as the recent increase in coal demand. For 2022, we forecast that U.S. coal-fired generation will decline about 5% in response to continuing retirements of generating capacity at coal power plants and slightly lower natural gas prices.
Coal Generation In UK Jumps As Wind Speed Drops -Coal met some 3 percent of the UK’s electricity demand on Friday morning, reaching its highest level of Britain’s power generation in one month, amid lower wind speeds this week and an outage at a gas-powered plant, Bloomberg reports. The last time the UK generated 3 percent of its electricity from coal was in early September when low wind generation reduced renewable power supply and triggered the massive spikes in UK wholesale electricity prices. Over the past week, gas has consistently accounted for the largest share of the UK’s electricity generation, according to data from National Grid ESO. For example, on Wednesday, gas produced 44.8 percent of Britain’s electricity, more than wind with 19.2 percent and nuclear with 12.6 percent.Surging natural gas prices and warm and still weather in September forced the UK to fire up an old coal plant that was on standby in order to meet its electricity demand. The UK has pledged to phase out coal-fired power generation by October 2024. UK power company Drax could have its last two coal-fired plants in the countryoperating beyond the 2022 deadline it had set for closure if the UK government asks it to keep them operational amid the energy crisis in the country and the whole of Europe. “If the government wants us to rethink our plans, we need to talk to them in the next few months,” Drax’s chief executive Will Gardiner told the Financial Times at the end of September. Last week, the UK government committed to decarbonizing the country’s electricity system by 2035. “While gas generation continues to play a critical role in keeping the UK electricity system secure and stable, the development of clean energy technologies means it will be used less frequently in the future,” the UK government said.
Faced with a power crisis, China may have ‘little choice’ but to ramp up coal consumption - China may have to set aside its ambitious plans to cut carbon emissions — at least in the short term — in order to tide over its worsening power crisis, said analysts."Like other markets in Asia and Europe, China must perform a balancing act between the immediate need to keep the lights on — via more coal — and showing its commitment to increasingly ambitious decarbonisation targets," said Gavin Thompson, Asia-Pacific vice chair at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie."But the short-term reality is that China and many others have little choice but to increase coal consumption to meet power demand," Thomson wrote in a report.Power cuts of varying extent have been reported in 20 provinces across China since mid-August. Several factors contributed to the power crunch, including a shortage of coal supplies, tougher government mandates to reduce emissions and greater demand from manufacturers.The energy crisis caused production halts at many factories in China — and prompted major banks to cut their GDP forecasts for the world's second-largest economy. Chinese President Xi Jinping announced last year that China's carbon emissions would begin to decline by 2030, and the country will reach carbon neutrality by 2060. That means China will balance its carbon emissions by removing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere, resulting in a zero net release of carbon dioxide.To meet those goals, China introduced a "dual-control" policy that requires provinces to limit energy use and cut energy intensity — defined as the amount of energy used per unit of GDP.In mid-August, China's economic planning agency announced that 20 provinces failed to meet at least one of the two targets in the first half of 2021.Last month, the agency updated the "dual-control" policy with more stringent measures — and that partially contributed to widespread power rationing across the county.Strictly implementing those targets would slash China's economic growth by between 1 and 3 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2021 and first quarter of 2022, Barclays Research estimated. So, Chinese authorities are likely to relax the two targets this year, economists at Barclays said."With three months left before year end, we think it will be very difficult to achieve the 'dual-control' target this year," they wrote in a report."We think the government is likely to adopt a more flexible approach to its targets especially given already slowing growth and a potential for a colder-than-usual winter," they said.China, the world's top carbon emitter, is heavily reliant on coal for power generation.In January to August this year, coal accounted for 62% of the country's total power generation, according to estimates by Barclays. That was followed by hydropower at 14%, as well as national gas and oil at 10%, the British bank said.Chinese government officials have reportedly urged top state-owned energy companies to secure energy supplies for winter at all costs.
Coal waste piles might be a bright spot in W.Va. economic future - — A product needed to produce a high number of electronic gadgets we use every day is in short supply and high demand. But West Virginia has mountains of what are called “rare earth elements” if researchers can come up with a way to tap the stream economically. The elements are in every computer, TV, or cell phone we use. Currently the largest percentage of those materials are produced and processed in China. The dependence on China makes the vital product unreliable, but Dr. John Deskins with WVU’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research gets excited when he explained one of the largest sources of rare earth elements are contained in old coal waste piles which dot the landscape of West Virginia and a few other Appalachian states. “These piles and tons of coal waste we’ve been producing for over 100 years have rare earths in them,” Deskins said in a recent appearing on MetroNews Talkline. The key is finding a way to extract them cheaply. So far, it’s so expensive, the venture isn’t worth the cost. However, research engineers at WVU are working on it. The research has Deskins excited. “This is an economic opportunity we’re working on. This could be a real boost to West Virginia and it’s something other places can’t replicate. It’s not like California or New York can copy this. It’s only available in West Virginia and a few other places. It could be a great boost,” he explained. Despite his difficulty containing his enthusiasm, Deskins noted it’s part of the long view of West Virginia’s economy. “This isn’t something we’re going to do tomorrow,” he said. However, the optimism also came with a second benefit–the cleanup of old coal waste piles across the state. “Not only can it boost our economy, but the engineering process will help us clean up these coal waste disposal sites so it’s a win-win and it makes me excited. You can probably hear it in my voice,” he said.
Economists pan Ohio coal subsidies - Part of a corrupt law, they’re still on the books - Coal subsidies passed in 2019 as part of a historically corrupt energy law are of no help to the state’s economy, the vast majority of a panel of academic economists said in a survey that was released Monday.Of the 22 economists responding, 21 disagreed with the proposition that “subsidies for coal plants paid for through state-mandated rate increases such as those in (House Bill 6) have economic benefits that outweigh their costs,” according to Scioto Analysis, which conducted the survey. The remaining economist was uncertain.House Bill 6 is a package of measures that included $1 billion to prop up nuclear power plants in Northern Ohio, a $102-million-a-year subsidy to Akron-based FirstEnergy, and rules that gutted renewable energy standards. It also included $233,000 a day in subsidies for two 66-year-old coal plants — including one that isn’t even in Ohio.In the summer of 2020, federal agents arrested then-House Speaker Larry Householder, R-Glenford, and four associates on charges that they funneled $61 million from FirstEnergy through dark money groups and into an effort to elect lawmakers who would support Householder for speaker and pass HB 6. Two have pleaded guilty and a third died by suicide. Householder has pleaded not guilty.Sam Randazzo, Gov. Mike DeWine’s appointee to chair the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, was also forced to resign after it was revealed that he received a $4 million payment from FirstEnergy just as he was about to assume his post running the state’s utility regulator.When he announced the indictments, U.S. Attorney David M. DeVillers said it was “likely the largest bribery and money-laundering scheme ever in the state of Ohio.” Some of the major provisions in HB 6 are no longer effective. FirstEnergy successor company Energy Harbor, which owns the nuclear power plants, no longer wants those subsidies because of how they’re treated under federal rules. And early this year, FirstEnergy agreed to forego the huge subsidy it was receiving as part of the law.But the coal subsidy, worth $153,000,000 so far to the companies that own the plants, is still on the books. That’s so even after the Capital Journal reported that the Randazzo-run PUCO censored an auditof the program, removing statements such as, “keeping the plants running does not seem to be in the best interests of the ratepayers.” The economists participating in this week’s survey said the subsidy isn’t good for the Ohio economy, either.
Consumer Watchdog Calls For A Shake-Up At Ohio's Utility Commission | WOSU News -The state's legal representative for Ohio's residential utility consumers said recent decisions by the Ohio Supreme Court underline the need for changes at the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio.Over the course of the last three years, the Ohio Supreme Court has issued three rulings that determined the PUCO erred in a decision involving FirstEnergy.The office of the Ohio Consumers' Counsel (OCC), a plaintiff in two of those court challenges, said PUCO made decisions that benefited FirstEnergy over consumers. That's why the OCC, which argues on behalf of state consumers in utility-related issues, said the PUCO should have at least one commissioner on the panel who represents ratepayers. "We've been warning that the PUCO is too cozy with the utilities that it regulates. So reform of the PUCO is needed to achieve the missing balance with consumers," said J.P. Blackwood, acting manager for the OCC public affairs department.In 2019, the court ordered that the PUCO immediately remove FirstEnergy's distribution modernization rider (DMR) from its rate plan for consumers. The ruling said the PUCO's decision to allow for the DMR was unlawful and the conditions placed on the rider were not sufficient enough to protect ratepayers."Utility companies can be expected to respond to financial motivations, but not if the commission awards them money up-front with no meaningful conditions attached," Justice Michael P. Donnelly wrote in the 2019 decision.Then in 2020, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled that the PUCO did not cite any language from law to justify its related to FirstEnergy's "significantly excessive earnings test," also known as SEET.This test determines if a utility company charged customers too much on electric bills. If the test finds "significantly excessive earnings" then customers could get a refund. The PUCO decided not to include revenue from the distribution modernization rider in the SEET.The latest ruling happened Thursday, when the Ohio Supreme Court found that the PUCO did not do enough to make sure FirstEnergy would not violate corporate separation policies when it created an affiliate that advised people on which electric company to choose.Meanwhile, FirstEnergy has admitted to bribing the last PUCO chair with $4 million for favorable treatment.
Texts detail how Ohio regulator gave FirstEnergy inside help (AP) — Newly surfaced texts between FirstEnergy Corp. executives detail a series of favors delivered to the company by Ohio’s top utility regulator, a man under scrutiny in an ongoing federal corruption probe.Akron-based FirstEnergy had a friend on the inside in early 2020: Sam Randazzo, chair of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. Randazzo resigned last November after an FBI search of his home and revelations that top FirstEnergy executives had approved paying him $4.3 million, weeks before his appointment as Ohio’s top utility regulator in 2019.The March 2020 texts between the two executives — who have since been fired — represent a new peek into the specifics of what Randazzo did on the company’s behalf. CEO Chuck Jones and senior vice president Dennis Chack wrote that Randazzo’s help included overruling utilities commission staff and commissioners on a revenue guarantee in a now-tainted 2019 energy bill. Randazzo also helped with “burning” an updated audit report on FirstEnergy charging customers $456 million — charges later deemed improper by the state Supreme Court. The customer charges were intended for grid modernization, but instead, FirstEnergy used the money to create a lending pool that its subsidiary electric companies, including those outside Ohio, could draw from.
Editorial: Reform Ohio's PUCO | Toledo Blade editorial -Even before the corruption debacle that is Ohio House Bill 6, most consumers could smell a rat when it came to the way the state’s Public Utilities Commission practiced oversight of FirstEnergy.For years the state’s utility regulatory agency has repeatedly rubber stamped questionable rate hikes and failed to hold the Akron-based energy company accountable for soaking its customers.And then came HB 6, the 2019 $61 million bailout of Akron-based FirstEnergy’s two nuclear power plants, which was revealed to be the result of a complicated bribery scheme that has led to federal charges against the former state House Speaker, former Ohio Republican Party chairman and lobbyist Matt Borges, and others.Then-PUCO Chairman Sam Randazzo, a former FirstEnergy consultant, took a $4 million payout from the energy company. He abruptly resigned from the PUCO last November, not long after the FBI searched his home.And even beyond the HB 6 scandal, the evidence just keeps piling up that the PUCO has not been looking out for Ohio energy consumers, particularly where FirstEnergy is concerned. In the last three years the state Supreme Court has ruled three times that PUCO decisions involving FirstEnergy were incorrect.Now the office of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, which was a plaintiff in two of those cases, is arguing for systemic change at the state’s utility oversight board so that consumers have a seat at the table -- literally. The OCC is arguing that at least one PUCO commissioner should be a ratepayer representative.Ohio’s needs to shift gears on public utility regulation or the skipping record will just keep playing the same old bars of music. Appointing individuals with ties to utility companies pretty much guarantees outcomes favorable to utilities. While familiarity with the industry is a good qualification, that doesn’t mean that individuals with industry ties suit the board best. If the board is called public, the public should determine those on the board.Changing the PUCO into a consumer watchdog means undoing years of a culture where utilities simply rode roughshod over consumers and regulators. State authorities should consider electing members of the oversight board, much as Ohio voters now elect the state board of education. Designating at least one commissioner seat -- if not several -- explicitly for a ratepayer representative is another good idea.Ideally EVERY member of the PUCO would consider themselves a consumer representative who takes seriously the responsibility of looking out for Ohio’s utility ratepayers. That’s the point of having a state regulatory board with the authority to oversee the utility companies that operate with little competition in Ohio.It’s time for Ohio to reform the way the PUCO commissioners are chosen to ensure the commission is working for Ohio ratepayers, not the companies collecting the rates.
Chesapeake Utilities completes RNG pipeline project - Chesapeake Utilities Corporation announced that construction of its Noble Road Landfill Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) pipeline project has been completed. The Company's subsidiary, Aspire Energy of Ohio, constructed the 33.1-mile pipeline, which will transport RNG generated from the Noble Road Landfill in Shiloh, Ohio, to Aspire Energy's pipeline system, displacing conventionally produced natural gas. In conjunction with this expansion, Aspire Energy also upgraded an existing compressor station and installed two new metering and regulation sites. Chesapeake Utilities invested $7.3 million in the project, which was constructed in just over a six-month period. Throughput of the RNG is expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Company expects to generate gross margin of $0.1 million in 2021; $0.75 million annually in 2022 through 2025; and $1 million in 2026 and thereafter. Aspire Energy partnered with OPAL Fuels, an emerging leader in the production and distribution of RNG, and Rumpke Waste & Recycling, one of the nation's largest privately-owned residential and commercial waste and recycling firms. Rumpke will extract and capture waste methane from the Noble Road Landfill, and OPAL Fuels will utilize its new, state-of-the-art facility to remove carbon dioxide and other components from the methane, purifying the biogas to pipeline quality standards. In addition to supplying Aspire Energy's customers, the RNG will be dispensed into fueling stations to fuel compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles also via OPAL Fuels. "At Chesapeake Utilities, we've made a strategic decision to actively support the sustainability efforts of the communities we serve. Included in that commitment is an active engagement in environmental stewardship and the development and supply of lower carbon energy sources, like RNG," said Jeff Householder, president and chief executive officer of Chesapeake Utilities Corporation. "The Noble Road pipeline represents the first of many RNG projects under development that will deliver energy that contributes to a sustainable future. Transporting RNG from the landfill through our pipeline system provides a path to markets that supports the economics of the biogas production and significantly reduces total carbon emissions. The outcome of this collaborative project is a win for customers, the local community and the environment." The Noble Road project will capture and transport quantities of renewable natural gas equivalent to 6.9 million gasoline gas equivalents (GGE) per year, enough to fuel 725 biofuel trucks.
'All of this is going to be gone': Residents worried about pipeline approved for Delaware, Union counties | 10tv.com — Andrea Yagoda starts every day the same way. She walks the trail her husband built on their 28-acre property behind their home in Delaware. The property straddles both Delaware and Union Counties – two counties that will eventually have a new natural gas pipeline.Now a retired lawyer, Yagoda traded the city life in New York for more space and quiet in central Ohio in 1978. “All of this is going to be gone,” she said while pointing to a tree line along that trail behind her home.She said in June of 2020 she got a notice about a proposed 16-mile pipeline, called theColumbia Gas Northern Loop Project.Yagoda explained the project will wipe out many of the trees on her property.Earlier this month, Ohio's Power Siting Board approved the plan.It will run through both counties, crossing Route 42 and the Scioto River, down to Glacier Ridge Metro Park. According to Columbia Gas of Ohio, existing lines can't keep up with the demand for this growing area. "My question was directly to the radius of harm if there was a problem with the pipeline and I think everyone has a right to know that because that's placing us in danger," she said. "I asked four times they would not answer that question."“Whenever we put any kind of a natural gas pipeline in the safety of our communities is paramount to anything else,” said Parisi. "Typically with this size of pipe that we will be building, you know, we'll have a right of way that ultimately runs the extent of the pipe. We'll have people out there monitoring the pipeline on a fairly regular basis to ensure that we don't have any issues or corrosion."
‘Orphaned’ wells are a problem in Pa., and there are many – -The number of abandoned oil and gas wells that exist in the United States is the subject of a new report by the Environmental Defense Fund. Researchers found more than 81,000 documented wells have been left unplugged by former owners, which far exceeds the previous estimate of 56,000.There are 8,840 abandoned and unplugged wells documented in Western Pennsylvania, according to the report.The report found regional clusters of orphan wells in the Appalachian region and south central states like Kentucky, Oklahoma and Texas. Oklahoma had the greatest concentration of wells.“It’s almost a visual history lesson of oil and gas development in the United States,” said Adam Peltz, a senior attorney at the Environmental Defense Fund. When a well dries up, the Oil and Gas Act of 1984 requires the owners and operators to plug them upon abandonment and report that information to the Department of Environmental Protection.Orphan wells have no legal or financial owner and as a result become wards of the state. They are orphaned often when their owner fails to properly decommission the well, leaving the burden on government agencies like the department of environmental protection. These aren’t just holes in the ground. Orphan wells are a source of climate warming methane emissions. The EPA estimates that emissions from all inactive, unplugged wells ranges from 7 to 20 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year in the form of methane. The Environmental Defense Fund compares this to emissions from 1.5 million to 4.3 million cars.“It’s a meaningful source of short term climate warming. That’s a problem for everyone,” Peltz said.Orphan wells have also been known to contaminate air, water and soil.“Their mere presence can lower property values,” Peltz added.
DEP denies PennEnergy Resources' request to draw millions of gallons of water per day from Big Sewickley Creek A decision by state environmental regulators to deny an energy company’s request to draw up to 3 million gallons of water a day from Big Sewickley Creek and one of its tributaries for fracking is being lauded as an important step toward protecting the waterway’s ecosystem.PennEnergy Resources’ application in June to draw water from the creek for natural gas drilling was met by resistance from a local state lawmaker whose district includes portions of the waterway. The company’s request included Big Sewickley and the North Fork Big Sewickley Creek tributary.Members of the Big Sewickley Creek Watershed Association also raised concerns that drawing so much water from the creek could be harmful to wildlife because the creek already experiences low levels during dry periods.They said any water drawn from the creek could permanently affect the existing habitat. The water drawn from the creeks would be used for hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” a technique used to extract oil and gas from bedrock by injecting a high-pressure mixture of water, sand or gravel and chemicals.State Rep. Bob Matzie, D-16th, said while he supports natural gas extraction, he called on PennEnergy to find an alternative source for the water it needs. He sent a letter to state environmental officials in July asking them to reject the application.Matzie said even if the company appeals the decision and it is overturned, PennEnergy should abandon its plan, “not because it’s the most sound business decision, but because it’s the right thing to do.”PennEnergy has 30 days to appeal the DEP’s decision. Company officials did not respond to messages seeking comment about the application denial or whether they plan to file an appeal.Dakota Raap, a fisheries biologist for the state Fish and Boat Commission, said in an email to the Tribune-Review that the agency notified the DEP that Big Sewickley Creek supports a stocked trout population and both it and the North Fork tributary are home to the Southern Redbelly Dace, which is a threatened species in Pennsylvania.In its Oct. 13 letter denying PennEnergy’s application, DEP officials noted, among other things, that the company failed to provide enough information about how the reduction in water levels caused by the withdrawal will affect the threatened fish species or the wetlands that have been identified in the area.A number of the items identified by the DEP as deficient in PennEnergy’s application are related to the equipment and processes used to draw water from the creek. Also among the seven deficiencies noted in PennEnergy’s application was a failure to provide “enough information to determine if the proposed project has a substantial risk to the environment.”To date, PennEnergy has not satisfied this application requirement,” DEP officials wrote in their letter to PennEnergy, a copy of which was obtained by the Trib.
Court: Town must turn over emails to gas pipeline builder --A judge on Friday ordered the release of emails between officials in a Philadelphia suburb and the developer of a natural gas pipeline that was charged with environmental crimes related to construction of the multi-billion-dollar project.Officials in Middletown Township have been refusing to produce the records for nearly a year, claiming they were exempt from disclosure under the state’s open records law. Energy Transfer, the owner of the Mariner East pipeline system, also opposed their release. A Delaware County judge ruled Friday that the records are public, and ordered the township to turn them over to the owners of a 124-unit apartment complex along the pipeline route.Energy Transfer subsidiary Sunoco Pipeline LP, which has been installing two new pipelines to take natural gas liquids from the Marcellus Shale gas field in western Pennsylvania to an export terminal near Philadelphia, seized private property at Glen Riddle Station Apartments for the pipeline project.Glen Riddle’s owners say pipeline construction has threatened the health and safety of the residents. The pipeline’s route splits the apartment complex in half.
Pennsylvania Court Orders Release of Emails by Energy Transfer Regarding ME Pipeline - The Delaware County Court of Common Pleas in Pennsylvania last week ordered the public release of emails between Energy Transfer LP, which is expanding the Mariner East (ME) natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline system, and officials in a county township. Since 2016 ME has carried increasing NGL volumes from processing facilities in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays eastward to Energy Transfer’s Marcus Hook Industrial Complex, an NGL hub on the Delaware River near Philadelphia. The pipeline system, which traverses Pennsylvania and extends into Ohio and West Virginia, will be able to move 280,000-300,000 b/d of LPG and 70,000 b/d of ethane eastward by the end of this year, according to a Sept. 2021 investor presentation on Energy Transfer’s website. The pipeline project has faced numerous regulatory, legal and construction setbacks.The recent Delaware County court order corresponds to a request under Pennsylvania’s right-to-know law for emails between Energy Transfer/Sunoco LP and officials with Middletown Township. In late May a water main break that occurred during ME construction left residents of the Glen Riddle Station Apartments without water. The incident also prompted subsequent questions from the apartment complex owner about whether the water was safe to drink after service was restored. The township had claimed it was exempt from releasing the emails in question, but the court earlier this month ruled otherwise.“From Day One, we believed the public had a right to know what discussions and agreements took place between Energy Transfer/Sunoco and Middletown Township,” said Glen Riddle Station owner spokesperson Stephen Iacobucci. The township’s council for some reason he said, “didn’t want the public to know about these dealings. We thank the court for agreeing with us, and we look forward to examining exactly what happened to allow Sunoco to do what it has done to our community. “It is our hope that Middletown Township won’t waste more taxpayer money with a frivolous appeal of this sound decision and allows the public its rightful opportunity to examine what are clearly public documents.”
Neighbors in Penn-Trafford protesting against drilling site — Protesters from Penn-Trafford were in front of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection office in Pittsburgh afraid a fracking site will create a ghost town. The well pad is along First Street in Trafford. A sign on the property has the Apex Energy LLC company on it. Advertisement “The courts and the Penn Township leaders and our regulators say this is only temporary, it’s not with all those wells,” neighbor Larry Irr said. The group said 2,823 residents live within 1 mile of the proposed fracking site, and more than 900 live within half a mile. “I don’t want this well pad to be built because it’s simply too many people, too close to people,” neighbor Gillian Graber said. “We have definitive evidence that’s affirmed by the attorney general that this will be harmful to our residents.” Graber went inside the DEP building to deliver a letter requesting a public hearing and listing the concerns from the residents, which includes quality of life and negative impacts on their air, land and water. “We would like to see, No. 1, a policy change at a larger level,” Graber said. “But we would like to see it start with this particular well pad, for them to deny it.” Pittsburgh’s Action News 4 requested a comment from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and the company applying for the permit to use this well pad.
Senators: Activists slowing gas pipelines --Heating costs are expected to rise this winter and three state senators placed the blame squarely on environmental activists that are slowing the natural gas industry by blocking the permitting process which allows natural gas to be transported from wells to consumers.“That extreme left wing is calling for a moratorium on all natural gas industry activities,” said Camera Bartalotta, R-Washington, in her opening statements at a press event Wednesday. Also at the podium at the State Capitol were Gene Yaw, R-Loyalsock and John Yudichak, I-Jim Thorpe, along with representatives of trade unions.“Activists are working day and night to stop the progression on all levels with frivolous lawsuits,”she added.Bartalotta stated that she was speaking as a “concerned citizen who was sick and tired of watching other lawmakers prioritize partisan politics over the well-being of the residents of this state, our country and our globe.”According to statistics from the Energy Information Administration cited by Bartalotta, retail energy prices are starting the winter at multi-year highs. Households are projected to see heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter. Propane is up 54%, with heating oil at 43%, followed by natural gas at 30% and electricity at 6%. Nearly half of the nation’s homes are heated by natural gas, Bartalotta said.“Today, we’re responding to the ill-conceived attacks on this industry and how they are contributing to a devastating global energy crisis,” Bartalotta said. She said that the greatest threat to the affordable, clean natural gas energy is “not a lack of natural resource, a shortage of capable workers or an unwillingness to adhere to environmental regulations. The real threat comes from lawmakers and environmental extremists who do not understand or appreciate how important the oil and gas industry is in our daily lives.” Bartalotta stated that permits in the southwestern part of the state which should take as little as 14 days to be processed are now taking anywhere from 100 days to up to 18 to 24 months. “No one with hundreds of millions of dollars in capital investment is going to wait that long for a return on their investment. They will go elsewhere,” Bartalotta said.
Hearing takes place regarding proposed Longview Power expansion - — The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection held a hearing Tuesday focused on a proposed expansion of a natural gas-fired power facility in Monongalia County. The forum focused on a $1.1 billion expansion of the Longview Power facility, which currently a 700 megawatt plant and employs 150 full-time workers. The power produced at Longview is distributed through PJM Interconnection across a 13-state region serving 65 million people. Longview Power is seeking an air quality permit for the expansion. Shane Ferguson, a representative of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union, argued for the expansion, saying the facility would attract young electricians looking for their first jobs. “It’s a lifelong career for a lot of apprentices,” he said. “We have apprentices that are now journeymen who started their career on the original project on that site.” Bryan Raber with the Plumbers and Pipefitters Union said the project would result in the creation of hundreds of construction jobs and other positions supporting workers. “The project is a huge job creator for the local workers,” he said. ” With the owner’s written commitment to hire local union construction workers and a payroll during construction of over $110 million, it would not only benefit the workers and their families but the community.” Residents of the Cheat Lake area spoke against the proposal; Duane Nichols said the state should reject the permit application because of the facility’s proposed location near Monongalia County hospitals and schools. “The location puts it in a special category and that any measure of environmental quality and environmental justice would disqualify it on that basis,” he said. Betsy Lawson talked about the current effects of fossil fuel burning in her community, including how acid rain has affected forests near her home. “Every day, I walk along Sugar Grove Road and many of the trees I see are sick or dead,” she said. “Adding more pollution does not just affect the Fort Martin community, but the entire eastern seaboard.” James Kotcon, the chairman of the West Virginia Sierra Club Conservation Committee, said the expansion would add a fossil fuel facility to the state during a time when West Virginia should be embracing renewable energy generation. “Any new facility like this is planning to run for many many years,” he said. “We simply can’t tolerate that if we’re going to protect our climate.”
Manchin campaign finances show oil and gas industry dwarfing in-state and renewable energy contributions --Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., dismissed fellow Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., as an “out-of-stater” in a statement Friday on Twitter for penning an op-ed in the Charleston Gazette-Mail urging Manchin to support President Joe Biden’s plans to invest trillions in health and child care, fighting climate change and other priorities.But a specific category of out-of-staters accounted for more than 10 times as much in Manchin campaign contributions than in-state sources did from July 1 through Sept. 30.Employees and political action committees for out-of-state oil and gas companies — most of which are based in Texas — dwarfed contributions from in-state individuals and political action committees by more than tenfold, according to the senator’s newly filed quarterly campaign finance report.Manchin for West Virginia, the senator’s campaign committee, reported drawing just under $1.6 million in contributions in the quarter, leaving it with $5.38 million in cash on hand.More than a quarter of that roughly $1.6 million came from the oil and gas industry. Just over $30,000 came from individuals and political action committees in West Virginia.The quarterly campaign finance report lands with Manchin at the center of the national political universe for withholding a key vote in the evenly divided Senate for Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget bill, aimed at strengthening the nation’s social safety net. Manchin has drawn intense scrutiny from climate advocates for his pushback against what they say is the most critical measure in the budget bill to address the climate crisis. That’s the Clean Electricity Performance Program, a $150 billion program that would authorize grants for electricity providers that increase clean electricity use by 4% or more annually from 2023 through 2030 and penalties for those that don’t. Manchin has made $4.35 million since 2012 from stock he owns in Enersystems Inc., the Fairmont-based coal brokerage he founded in 1988, according to his U.S. Senate financial disclosures. He has denied that his vested coal interests have influenced his policymaking that affects the coal industry. But he has declined to divest his holdings, saying his ownership is held in a blind trust and, therefore, avoids a conflict of interest.The Manchin campaign’s more than $400,000 in campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry are nearly 10 times as much as the campaign received from renewable energy and conservation organizations. Manchin’s campaign committee received $74,600 from employees and the political action committee for the Texas-based midstream energy company Energy Transfer, whose CEO, Kelcy Warren, contributed $10 million to Donald Trump super PAC America First Action in August 2020.
Thousands of Oil, Gas Wells Need to Be Capped. How Congress Can Help - West Virginia has thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells that need to be capped. The state Department of Environmental Protection has identified more than 4,000, some of them more than a century old.The wells contaminate soil and groundwater and release methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas that’s 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.According to federal estimates, the methane released from these wells annually is equivalent to burning as much oil as the nation produces in a day.A bipartisan infrastructure bill the U.S. Senate approved over the summer would provide about $4.7 billion to cap these problem wells.The House of Representatives has not yet voted on the legislation. It’s tied up because lawmakers are still negotiating the size and scope of President Joe Biden’s jobs plan.Ted Boettner, senior researcher at the Ohio River Valley Institute, says the bill would benefit West Virginia’s economy and environment.“This infrastructure bill offers an enormous opportunity for the state of West Virginia and Appalachia as a whole to plug thousands of wells and put thousands of people to work,” he said, “and address climate change.”But is the state’s inventory of orphaned oil and gas in the state accurate? Boettner said the actual number could be staggering.“The real answer to that question is we don’t exactly know,” he said, “because we’ve never tried to go out and document all of them.”Some wells are so old, there’s no documentation of their existence. The state has limited resources to track the ones it knows about, much less find others.“In West Virginia, there could be hundreds of thousands of them,” Boettner said. “So it’s really just the tip of the iceberg.”Orphaned wells can be costly to fix. Boettner says on average, it costs $55,000 to cap a well, usually with concrete. Depth is a major factor driving the cost.Horizontally drilled wells, like those used to produce oil and gas through hydraulic fracturing, could cost as much as $250,000 each.While the state has a program to deal with abandoned wells, it’s small relative to the size of the problem.In the long term, Boettner calls for the creation of a program for oil and gas wells similar to the Abandoned Mine Lands fund. The fund is supported by a tax on coal production.A fee on oil and gas extraction could support a fund to cap oil and gas wells, he says. For now, West Virginia will need to rely on the help that’s in the infrastructure bill.
Climate choir goes to Richmond to protest pipeline - (audio) A "climate emergency choir" performed in Richmond on Monday to ask Governor Northam to put an end to the Mountain Valley Pipeline and demand solutions to climate change. WMRA's Randi B. Hagi reports. Listen Listening... 4:37More than 60 people from the Harrisonburg area marched through downtown Richmond on Monday, singing hymns and protest songs. As they went, they delivered letters to Governor Ralph Northam's office and other public officials, asking for the declaration of a climate emergency and a stop to construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline.(Group walking and singing) The singers' march culminated on the plaza outside the state capitol building, where organizer Earl Martin, flanked by several small children, read out their letter to the governor.EARL MARTIN: We come this morning as tillers of the Earth, as carpenters, students, teachers, homemakers, engineers, pastors, parents, and children. Many of us are Mennonites and are friends of Mennonites. Many of us are from Harrisonburg. But we come from diverse places. We come with the deepest convictions and yearnings for our human family. As is our tradition, we come singing hymns of hope, singing songs of the sacredness of the Earth. Singing songs of courage and faith. Indeed, we believe we are singing for our very lives.The pipeline has aroused criticism and opposition for years. If completed, it'll carry natural gas from northern West Virginia to a compressor station in Pittsylvania County, Virginia. According to an April press release from the project, approximately 80% of the actual pipeline work is done, and about half of its path has been 'fully restored.'The singers' march culminated on the plaza outside the state capitol building. Activists who spoke on Monday honed in on the pollution caused by the pipeline's construction, potential leaks, and the burning of the fossil fuel it would transport.
Pipeline protesters interrupt Jill Biden’s speech at McAuliffe campaign rally (WRIC) — Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin – the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, respectively – both brought out big names on October 15 to rally their supporters ahead of the Nov. 2 election.It’s just another sign of an election that’s ramping up, with a recent Nexstar/Emerson College pollshowing that the two are virtually tied. That’s a big shift from early in the race, when McAuliffe held a steady 5 percent lead over Youngkin. At McAuliffe’s rally, one of the marquee speakers was Dr. Jill Biden, who was featured prominently in campaign materials surrounding the event. But her speech was briefly interrupted by protesters carrying banners reading “Reject pipelines protect the future.”McAuliffe has made green energy a key part of his platform, but his involvement in promoting the Mountain Valley Pipeline sparked protests at the time – and those protests have continued in the intervening years as the project slowly advances.Ultimately, the disruption lasted only a few minutes, as police escorted the protesters from the rally.“You gotta love democracy!” Dr. Biden quipped, before continuing with her prepared remarks.
In Virginia, momentum grows for grassroots group mobilized against now-canceled gas plant - — After leading efforts to block a 1,100-megawatt natural gas plant in their rural backyard this summer, it would be understandable if a local grassroots group opted to close up shop. No more exhausting marathon meetings. No more sifting for key nuggets in piles of arcane documents. And no more scrambling for donations to sustain their endeavor. The thought of such liberation was tempting after two-plus years of doggedness, said La’Veesha Allen Rollins and Wanda Roberts, co-directors of Concerned Citizens of Charles City County, or C5. But the group is not about to quit — not with three more equally consequential energy issues looming in their county. The first two are the proposed 1,650-megawatt Chickahominy Power Plant and its accompanying 83-mile natural gas pipeline. A third is a request by the local landfill to enlarge its footprint. The dump collaborates with a third party to capture enough gas to generate electricity for roughly 2,000 homes. “We’re the voice,” said Roberts, seated in a room near the sanctuary of Cedar Grove Baptist Church in Providence Forge, C5’s in-person hub. “I can’t walk away from this. That’s not an option anymore. We’re too heavily invested.” From a facing table, Allen Rollins nodded vigorously. “We’re putting in all this work and effort to do right by the community,” she said about their disappointment with local officials’ nonresponsiveness. “We’re not getting paid for it. The people who are getting paid to do it aren’t doing it.” Fending off polluting infrastructure isn’t the co-directors’ only goal. They want C5 to become a go-to organization that sets an agenda for community well-being. Achievements can be as small as purchasing basketballs and water bottles for underfunded school athletic teams and as expansive as hiring professionals to conduct baseline air, water and soil studies near proposed energy projects. “We want to empower our residents,” Allen Rollins said. “Nobody wants to feel helpless. Nobody should lose their home or health because somebody is developing something.” C5, with a core of six members and thousands of individual and group supporters, has no doubt that developers of the pair of gas plants targeted their county because they figured nobody would complain. The energy overtures have a strong whiff of environmental racism as close to half of the roughly 7,000 residents are Black and 7% are Native American.
Dominion Energy gave $200k to secretive PAC attacking Youngkin from the right - Big-league political influencer Dominion Energy donated $200,000 to a secretive PAC attacking GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin, a new filing shows.The money from Dominion’s PAC went to Accountability Virginia PAC in Washington, according to a public filing this weekend by Dominion with the Virginia Department of Elections.The political news outlet Axios reported in late September that the Accountability Virginia operation has ties to Democratic activists and is funding an ad campaign in which the Democrats pose as conservatives “to drive a wedge between the Republican candidate for Virginia governor and his core voters.”The ads on Facebook, Instagram, Google and Snapchat target rural areas of the state that support Youngkin, and the ads question his commitment to the Second Amendment, Axios reported.Dominion gave $200,000 between July and September to the PAC running the ads.Youngkin’s campaign said Democrats are desperate.“Forty year politician Terry McAuliffe and the Democratic party are running scared, so they’ve done what all politicians do — call in their special interest cronies to dump obscene amounts of money into shadowy organizations in order to protect their entrenched interests,” Youngkin spokeswoman Macaulay Porter said by email for this story. “Glenn Youngkin is winning on his message of being an outsider running against politics as usual, so it’s no surprise that desperation has set in for the ruling-class that sees their power slipping away.”Dominion spokesman Rayhan Daudani said by email: “There is nothing secretive about any of our company’s political donations. They are disclosed monthly on the company website. We give in a bipartisan, transparent manner as our voluntary disclosures demonstrate and will continue to do so.”He declined to answer why the company preferred McAuliffe over Youngkin in the Executive Mansion. The election is Nov. 2, and early voting is ongoing.Dominion this summer took an active role in the race for attorney general,injecting $200,000 into a political operation that was helping run Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring’s primary campaignagainst challenger Del. Jay Jones, D-Norfolk. Herring faces Del. Jason Miyares, R-Virginia Beach, in the general election.Dominion also gave $100,000 this summer to Hala Ayala, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, who had previously promised not to take campaign money from the regulated utility. That was followed by more donations from Dominion to Ayala.
As state law requires steep emissions cuts, utilities face an urgent quandary: to build or not to build new gas pipelines? - The Boston Globe -After acquiring Columbia Gas of Massachusetts last year, Eversource reviewed the safety and reliability of its new pipelines and discovered what the utility considered a significant red flag: One community in western Springfield was uniquely vulnerable to a mishap or natural disaster, with 58,000 customers reliant on just one pipeline vital to warming their homes.Officials at Columbia Gas had been well aware of the vulnerability and spent years seeking to build backup pipelines in the area, but local protests against the proposals and other events stymied its plans.Now, Eversource is floating a similarly controversial project that would create one of the largest new pipelines in the state in recent years, a plan that could cost ratepayers as much as $33 million and perpetuate the use of a fossil fuel that a new state law aims to eliminate.
Locals Fear Health Risks After Suspected Oil Spill During Construction of Coney Island Ferry Landing --After Coney Islanders believe they spotted an oil sheen on the waters of Coney Island Creek, local residents and elected officials are once again asking various government agencies to look into the safety of the peninsula’s incoming ferry landing now that dredging has begun.“We are asking for a robust assessment from the city, the state and the federal government,” said Assembly Member Mathylde Frontus, who organized an October 13 press conference on the gruesome discovery. “We want them to monitor the air quality here that we are breathing, we want them to test this water and we want to know what are the effects of the dredging.”On October 5, two separate Coney Island residents took photos of what they believed were oil slicks on the creek at Kaiser Park, where the city’s Economic Development Corporation (EDC) is building a new ferry landing. The next day, Frontus gave those photos to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Coast Guard. (The public can contact the state Department of Environmental Conservation Spills Hotline at 1-800-457-7632 to report any suspicious sediment.) and Coney Island residents raised their shared concern of the health impacts associated with the current construction of a ferry landing on Coney Island Creek. Photo by Jessica Parks“We had someone out here with a drone…There were oil sheens right where the construction rig was,” Ida Sanoff, the executive director of the National Resources Protective Association and a Coney Island resident, told the community. “On that same morning, a scientist who runs local educational programs down here took those pictures in this immediate area where the work was being done, also showing an oil spill.” Both DEC and the Coast Guard inspected the site on October 6 and 7, but their contradictory responses have raised alarm bells in the community. At the October 13 announcement, Frontus shared with the crowd a text message from a representative with the Coast Guard, who suspected the contamination was caused by dredging. Meanwhile, DEC has claimed otherwise, saying it could be from multiple sources.
Spire warns of potential natural gas shortage - — One of our region's main sources of natural gas may soon be shut off at the tap after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to issue a stay of the Spire STL Pipeline. The U.S. Court of Appeals unanimously voted that the 2018 approval of the 65-mile pipeline was unlawful, but Spire attorney Sean Jamieson wants to make one thing clear to customers. “The pipeline is still operating,” said Jamieson. While the Environmental Defense Fund argues the decision will protect ratepayers, Jamieson said that’s only the case if the pipeline stays online. “If this pipeline continues to operate the expectation is that there would be normalized gas prices for residents here in eastern Missouri,” said Jamieson. That’s why the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission gave Spire a 90-day emergency permit, but it expires Dec. 13. “There is a real risk for gas outages without this pipeline,” said Jamieson. In the past, 90% of natural gas in the St. Louis region came from the southern United States, and the Spire pipeline reduced that need, but unlike your thermostat, Jamieson said it can’t simply be turned back up. “When it was given up the market, other people who need access to that pipeline reserved that extra capacity,” said Jamieson. “Today, we can’t go back and get that capacity because it’s reserved by somebody else who needs it.” That’s why Jamieson believes it’s time for FERC to step in. “Keeping this infrastructure in service for this winter, at least through December is an emergency,” said Jamieson. In the meantime, he believes the federal agency should simply listen to the state utility commission. “The state utility commission, who is in the best position to decide the needs and to weigh the benefits and importance to eastern Missouri businesses and residents, has already made the conclusion that this pipeline is essential,” said Jamieson.
Northern Natural Gas seeks eminent domain over property-owner holdouts in Lincoln County - An Omaha-based natural gas company has negotiated easements with most landowners in its eastern South Dakota project area, including those it filed suit against in federal court. Northern Natural Gas Co. filed a condemnation suit against the owners of 19 tracts of land last month in Lincoln and Union counties, but since then, all but four have negotiated easements. The company's project includes abandoning 79 miles of pipeline and facilities that were installed in the 1940s and 1950s from South Sioux City to Sioux Falls. The old pipeline would be replaced with 82 miles of new pipeline as well as various above-ground facilities. But when some landowners didn't want to grant easements, the company filed condemnation suits, armed with the power of eminent domaine from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which certified the project. The project started this spring and the company was seeking three types of easements for pipelines, pipeline facilities and temporary works space. The project was scheduled to be completed by Nov. 1, 2022, but when holdouts threatened to delay its completion, Northern Natural went to court. In a statement, company spokesman Mike Loeffler said that Northern has negotiated easements with 195 property owners in South Dakota and Nebraska, with only the four remaining. "Northern strongly favors good faith negotiations and will continue efforts to reach agreement with these landowners," Loeffler said. Clint Sargent, a lawyer who represents Norman French, a Lincoln County landowner who has not agreed to grant an easement to Northern, said he couldn't talk about the specifics of the case, because it involves ongoing litigation. French has two tracts of land on which Northern is seeking eminent domain. But generally, Sargent said, eminent domain cases involving projects with certification from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have more room for litigation. Unlike eminent domain under state laws that specify certain rights, FERC does not have the same specified laws, leaving more room to fight over the details.
US contracts for natural gas fall about 8%, ignoring a jump in prices in Europe (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures fell nearly 8 percent to a three-week low on Monday on forecasts of mild weather and ignoring a 10 percent jump in European gas prices after Russian gas giant Gazprom failed to secure additional fuel to Europe. In the past few weeks, US gas prices have risen to their highest levels since 2008 on expectations that record global gas prices will keep demand for US liquefied exports strong, while utilities in Europe and Asia are scrambling to refill stocks ahead of the winter heating season. But whatever the scale of the increase in global prices, US LNG export plants are already running near full capacity and won’t be able to produce more LNG until later this year. And US gas stocks, unlike those in Europe, provide more than enough fuel for the winter heating season. Analysts expect US gas stocks to exceed 3.5 trillion cubic feet by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they say will be a comfortable level although below the five-year average of 3.7 trillion cubic feet. In Europe, analysts say stocks are down 15 percent from their usual levels at this time of year. US gas contracts for November delivery ended the trading session down 42.1 cents, or 7.8%, to settle at 4.989 per million British thermal units, the lowest closing level since September 23. With gas prices near $36 per million British thermal units in Europe and $34 in Asia versus about $5 in the United States, traders say buyers around the world will continue to buy all the LNG the United States can produce.
Natural gas futures drop below $ 5 as mild weather prevails through early November – Natural gas futures extended their losses on Monday as cold weather remained largely absent from long-term forecasts. Despite rising global prices, the November Nymex gas futures contract plunged 42.1 cents to settle at $ 4.989 / MMBtu. December fell 36.4 cents to $ 5.236. Although it is still weeks away from winter, even brief puffs of cold air have been hard to come by. Weather patterns over the weekend shifted, but overall maintained a bearish outlook until early November. A brief cold front is expected to sweep the Great Lakes and the northeast next weekend, but temperatures are expected to warm up fairly quickly. “We suspected that there was more risk on the downside than on the upside, given a very poor climate and sufficient storage,” said Bespoke Weather Services. However, the magnitude of Monday’s price change was “a bit surprising”, according to the firm, given that there was no significant weather change from Friday. Additionally, “we’re still only in the middle of the third of October at this point in the game.” Certain global factors could have favored a rise in gas prices in the United States. European gas prices jumped on Monday after Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC failed to book larger volumes at auction, saying November allocations reflect contract volumes. Without additional gas flows from Russia, the supply outlook in Europe remains worrying and likely means prices would need to rise even more than current levels in order to attract more liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the winter . “At least Gazprom should have obtained additional gas to sell in the spot market, most likely at a significant mark-up.” Yawger noted that the real problem is the Russian-built Nord Stream 2 pipeline that carries gas to Germany. The pipeline is already flowing and volumes are expected to increase as the system goes into service. However, significant regulatory hurdles remain for the ailing system. Chief among them is the need to comply with European Union rules requiring that ownership of transmission assets and natural gas supplies be separated. The rule could prove to be complicated for Gazprom’s integrated structure. “Russian President Putin has said that if Europeans want more gas, all they have to do is approve the pipe,” Yawger said. “Until that happens, expect European gas prices to remain at extremely high levels.” Despite the drama overseas, the offer on European gas prices did nothing to prevent Nymex futures from collapsing on Monday, with sales picking up after noon. The November contract fell to an intraday low of $ 4.962 before jumping a bit to settle not far above that level. Bespoke said it was still too early to fully detach from the situation in Europe, but each warmer week in the United States brings the market closer to such detachment. The lower 48 supplies are “just not at risk the way they are over there” unless an extremely cold winter with sustained cold. “In the absence of this, there is not much that global issues can have until we increase LNG export capacity,” Lovern said. In addition, the longer the hot weather lasts, the better the condition of the storage inventory in the United States will be when the cold air arrives.
U.S. natgas futures edge up on cooler midday forecast (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up almost 2% on Wednesday on midday forecasts calling for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders noted that prices fell to a near four-week low earlier in the day on early forecasts calling for the weather to remain warmer than usual over the next two weeks. Even with the cooler midday forecast, however, the U.S. weather is still expected to remain a milder than normal through early November. Two weeks ago, U.S. gas prices soared to their highest since 2008 on expectations global competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) would keep demand for U.S. exports strong. But after weeks of mild weather, U.S. prices dropped about 25% amid growing belief that the United States will have more than enough gas in storage for the winter heating season. Around the world, however, gas prices have soared to record highs as utilities scramble for more gas to refill dangerously low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia. High prices and energy shortages have already caused some industries to shut or curtail manufacturing activities in both regions. But no matter how high global prices rise, U.S. LNG export plants were already operating near full capacity and will not be able to produce much more LNG until later in the year. Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will approach 3.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls short of the 3.7 tcf five-year average. In Europe, analysts say stockpiles are about 15% below normal for this time of year. Front-month gas futures rose 8.2 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $5.170 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Weather forecaster AccuWeather said a beast of a bomb cyclone - similar to a strong hurricane - will take shape just off the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The storm will likely bring dangerous and damaging impacts up and down the West Coast, but the precipitation it will deliver to parts of the drought-parched West is greatly needed. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 85.7 bcfd this week to 87.9 bcfd next week as more homes and businesses turn on their heaters with a seasonal cooling of the weather. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv expected on Tuesday. With gas prices near $32 per mmBtu in Europe and $35 in Asia, versus just $5 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce. Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in October, the same as in September, but was expected to rise in coming weeks as more liquefaction trains exit maintenance outages. But the United States only has capacity to turn about 10.5 bcfd of gas into LNG.
U.S. natgas eases on big storage build, lower demand forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Thursday on a slightly bigger-than-expected storage build, an easing of gas prices in Europe and forecasts for lower U.S. demand next week than previously expected. That price decline occurred despite forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand this week and record gas prices in Asia that will keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. Even with the cooler forecast, the U.S. weather was still expected to remain milder than normal through early November. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 15, the sixth week in a row that inventory builds were bigger than usual. That was a little higher than the 90-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 49 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average increase of 69 bcf. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 3.461 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which would be 4.2% below the five-year average of 3.612 tcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures fell 5.5 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $5.115 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Around the world, however, gas prices were still at or near record highs as utilities scramble for more fuel to refill dangerously low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia. High prices and energy shortages have already caused power cuts in Asia and some industries in both Europe and Asia to shut or curtail manufacturing activities. But no matter how high global gas prices rise, U.S. LNG export plants were already operating near full capacity and will not be able to produce much more LNG until later in the year. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to an average of 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 86.1 bcfd this week to 87.6 bcfd next week as more homes and businesses turn on their heaters due to seasonal cooling. With gas prices near $31 per mmBtu in Europe and $36 in Asia, versus just $5 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce. Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in October, the same as in September, but was expected to rise in coming weeks as more liquefaction trains exit maintenance outages. But the United States only has capacity to turn about 10.5 bcfd of gas into LNG.
-U.S. natgas up 3% on forecasts cooler weather will boost heating (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Friday on forecasts for demand to rise as the weather turns seasonally cooler and on a slight increase in global gas prices that should keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) strong. Even though the forecasts called for temperatures to decline with the approach of winter, those forecasts also predicted the weather would remain milder than normal through at least early November, keeping heating demand lower than usual for this time of year. Front-month gas futures rose 16.5 cents, or 3.2%, to settle at $5.280 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Oct. 15. For the week, however, the contract fell about 2%, putting it down for a third week in a row for the first time since March. In early October, U.S. gas prices soared to their highest level since 2008 on expectations global competition for LNG would keep demand for U.S. exports strong. But after weeks of mild weather, U.S. prices were down about 18% from that high amid a growing belief in the market that the United States will have more than enough gas in storage for the winter heating season. Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will reach 3.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls short of the 3.7 tcf five-year average. U.S. stockpiles were currently about 4% below the five-year (2016-2020) average for this time of year. In Europe, analysts say stockpiles were about 15% below normal. Around the world, however, gas prices were still at or near record highs as utilities scramble to refill dangerously low gas inventories in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia. Shortages of coal, gas and oil have already caused power blackouts in China and several businesses in Europe and Asia to shut or curtail manufacturing activities. With gas prices near $30 per mmBtu in Europe and $33 in Asia, versus just $5 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce.
Weekly Natural Gas Prices Extend Downward Slide Amid Benign Weather Conditions -- Weekly natural gas cash prices gave up ground amid mild temperatures and light demand across much of the Lower 48. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the October 18-22 period shed 38.5 cents to $4.850. That followed a 34.5-cent drop the previous week. Conditions were comfortable across most of the country for a majority of the trading week, particularly early on, with highs in the 70s as far north as the Dakotas and Minnesota on Monday and Tuesday. Spot prices tumbled each of the first two trading days of the week, extending losses from the prior week, as widespread highs of 60s to 80s dampened demand. Losses were also pronounced on the East and West coasts on Tuesday, with prices tumbling 50.0 cents or more at several locations that day. While cash regained some momentum as the week wore on amid sporadic weather systems, weekly prices finished the period in the red. As the trading week closed, Malin was down 38.5 cents to $5.070, while Algonquin Citygate was off 66.0 cents to $4.590 and Katy was down 41.5 cents to $4.810. Hampered by forecasts for benign weather, the November Nymex contract, while volatile, ultimately dipped lower for the week. It settled at $5.280/MMBtu on Friday, down 2.4% from the prior week’s finish. Forecasters anticipated continued modest demand in the week ahead. “We remain in a low demand regime, with any variability just able to bring demand closer to normal at times,” Bespoke Weather Services said. “The Pacific side of the pattern currently remains hostile toward any true cold air delivery into the U.S, though it grows less hostile as we reach early November,” suggesting a return to stronger demand next month. Futures plummeted more than 40.0 cents on Monday, led lower by the forecasts for protracted shoulder season weather. While futures struggled to fully recoup the steep early loss through the rest of the week, the downward pressure eased alongside expectations for strong demand this winter. With supplies depleted in Europe and parts of Asia, demand for U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) held above 10 Bcf/d during the week and were expected to mount in coming weeks, providing some price support.
What Higher Gas Prices Mean for US Shale This Winter --We are heading into winter months with record high natural gas prices as strong demand recovery and unplanned supply outages have led to tighter markets. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest gas market report, such tensions are a reminder that security of supply remains a major concern only a year after a record drop in demand left markets oversupplied.But what does this mean for the U.S. natural gas market? Last week, Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) Chairman David Attwood said he expects U.S. shale producers to be actively involved in the response to the highest natural gas prices in nearly a decade.“I firmly believe the market works,” Attwood told media following the release of NGSA’s Annual Winter Outlook. “There is no doubt the market is giving strong signals for production to increase. That supply is there and will come and meet the demand.”In its winter outlook, NGSA said it expects a “gradual production recovery” and increase in rig counts during the winter months to offset rising demand.On the supply side, the outlook expects an increase in production this winter, with the daily average up 4% or 3.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) above last year winter, putting downward pressure on prices.“These are very interesting times in the gas market,” said Amber McCullagh, director of intelligence at Enverus, adding that September was the most volatile month in terms of gas prices in the post-shale era with the exception of cold winters“Right now, gas storage inventories are more than 200 Bcf below the 5-year average…Certainly the U.S. is in a better situation than Europe, but we don’t have a buffer in terms of average storage inventories like we did over the last 5 years,” McCullagh said, speaking at Enevrus’s natural gas outlook webinar last week.McCullagh also noted that gas prices are likely to stay elevated into 2022. If the winter is mild—which is unlikely—gas prices could dip into the mid $4/MMBtu range. However, in a cold winter scenario, prices could soar up to $10/MMBtu or higher. (Figure 1)
Gas utilities navigate energy transition while facing greater climate oversight | S&P Global Market Intelligence - Natural gas utilities in the U.S. are working to find their niche in the clean energy transition amid increasing scrutiny as national, state and federal regulators tackle emissions in the industry through new rules and stricter project reviews. For instance, utilities have announced at least 26 hydrogen pilot projects in the past year as the industry works out how to make and transport the gas, as well as help customers migrate to the low-carbon fuel. Subsidiaries of utility holding company Sempra lead the way with 12 projects, ahead of a number of other major utilities with one or two projects each, according to a review by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Most of the projects are in West and East Coast states with ambitious climate targets and more than half involve hydrogen production, particularly green hydrogen. Several projects also seek to understand hydrogen's impact on end-use appliances or explore using the fuel for power generation. Pilot projects ensure that "when we go to our regulators or other stakeholders to make a very large investment, we've got them familiar with this technology and the application of it," said Kim Heiting, senior vice president of operations and chief marketing officer at Oregon utility operator Northwest Natural Holding Co. The pilots will help utilities overcome challenges posed by the shift to hydrogen before they commit to hugely expensive full-scale rollouts. These pilots form gas utilities' contribution to larger efforts to curb climate change, both in the U.S. and globally. Recently, 24 countries decided to join the U.S. and the European Union in a Sept. 17 pledge to slash global methane emissions by at least 30% below 2020 levels by the end of the decade with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C, according to an Oct. 11 news release. Seven countries — Argentina, Ghana, Indonesia, Iraq, Italy, Mexico and the United Kingdom — had shown support for the pledge at the U.S.-led Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate. With the 24 additional countries, nine of the top 20 methane emitters will now be part of the pledge, representing about a third of global methane emissions and about two-thirds of the world economy. Back in the U.S., Colorado regulators have set in motion an overhaul of natural gas utility regulations — advancing an ongoing inquiry into the gas grid's future in the state as policymakers work to meet ambitious climate goals. The Colorado Public Utilities Commission recently proposed substantial revisions to the state's gas utility regulations that aim to reduce the sector's greenhouse gas emissions and align infrastructure planning with statewide emissions reductions goals. (21R-0449G) The proposed rulemaking kicks off a yearlong process of soliciting feedback from gas distributors and other stakeholders. The outcome of that process stands to determine the trajectory of gas use in homes, workplaces and industrial facilities in Colorado, one of several states reviewing the fuel's role in a decarbonized future. The rulemaking also ties together several proceedings and "will be comprehensive and at the forefront of the evolution of the gas utility industry," the PUC said in an Oct. 1 filing.
BPPJ calls 60-day halt to nighttime fracking in urban areas – Oil and gas companies developing natural gas wells close to residential areas will have to hold off their nighttime fracking operations while parish officials tweak the noise ordinance. The Bossier Police Jury on Wednesday afternoon placed a 60-day moratorium on fracking between the hours of 10 p.m. and 7 a.m. It’s effective within 3,000 feet of platted subdivisions located within the jurisdiction of the Bossier City, Benton and Haughton metropolitan planning commissions. The moratorium will not impact oil and gas operations in the more rural areas of the parish. The move is in response to complaints from residents in a south Bossier neighborhood where noise from an oil and gas company’s fracking exceeded the parish noise ordinance, parish attorney Patrick Jackson said. Jackson called the company a “very good operator,” which did its best to comply with the ordinance. But it couldn’t. Noise studies are required, and one was done at the south Bossier site. “There were just some anomalies, and it didn’t prove out,” parish engineer Eric Hudson said. Like most parishes in northwest Louisiana, Bossier Parish worked with the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association during the initial development of the Haynesville Shale to put ordinances in place governing operations. Bossier’s noise ordinance was modeled after the city of Fort Worth that had years of experience with the Barnett Shale, Jackson said. So, Jackson is confident in Bossier’s laws regarding oil and gas related activities. But since more than a decade has passed, Jackson said changes are needed as the science surrounding fracking operations has changed.
EIA DPR: NatGas & Oil Production Slowly Increases Again in Nov. --Six of the seven largest shale plays in the U.S. will see a slight increase in both natural gas and oil production in November according to the latest monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Marcellus/Utica, collectively lumped together as “Appalachia” in the report, will see an estimated increase of 41 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day) in production next month–something of a disappointment. The M-U’s chief rival, the Haynesville, will see explosive growth, an increase of 135 MMcf/d. The oil-based Permian will see an increase in natgas production of 78 MMcf/d. The increase in production for all major plays except the Anadarko (located mainly located in Oklahoma), is no mystery given the ongoing high price gas is now fetching. The cumulative increase across all plays is estimated to be 257 MMcf/d next month–roughly a quarter of a billion cubic feet. M-U gas production is forecast to hit 34.9 MMcf/d in October, still down compared to 35.6 MMcf/d last December, but we’re getting there. Be patient. Most of the increase in oil production will come in the Permian, estimated to add another 62,000 barrels of oil production per day in November. Given prices through the roof (nearly $83/bbl as of yesterday), you would think oil drilling would see explosive growth too. An additional 62,000 barrels per day added to the Permians current 4.826 million barrels per day is a relative drop in the drum. Our Three Favorite Charts Below are the three charts the EIA doesn’t include in the official PDF of the report (for whatever reason). We think these are the three best charts they issue each month. Below is the one chart we obsess over each month–our favorite chart produced by EIA. It shows estimates for total production in the coming month. We also like the following chart which shows drilled but uncompleted (DUC) numbers. Notice the story the chart below tells: New drilling in all plays has slowed down and producers are finishing already-drilled wells at a faster clip. Sooner or later we’ll run out of DUCs to complete.
Permian Oil Production Near Pre-Covid Record Numbers - Oil output in America’s most prolific shale patch is getting closer to levels seen before the pandemic-driven market crash, as crude prices surge. While total production in the U.S. is still lagging, the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is increasing output to an average of 4.826 million barrels a day in October, according to a U.S. government report Monday. That’s close to a revised 4.913 million barrel-a-day record set in March 2020, just before the pandemic unleashed widespread demand destruction globally, triggering production shutdowns and bankruptcies across the country. Production has been rising with benchmark U.S. crude prices now at seven-year highs, underpinned by a severe supply deficit. Oil futures in New York surpassed $80 a barrel this month for the first time since 2014. The Permian has low breakeven production costs, high rates of productivity, and so is best positioned to recover even though total U.S. crude production is still down. Private drillers in the basin have been seeking to capitalize on the surge in oil prices, ramping up volumes steadily, while public companies are under shareholder pressure to keep spending in check. In other shale plays, however, the recovery has been slow. The backlog of oil wells that have already been drilled and are waiting to be fracked, known as DUCs, has been shrinking since the middle of last year. In the Bakken of North Dakota, where the shale boom began, and in the Eagle Ford of southern Texas, the number of DUCs are at their lowest on record. Production in the Bakken is expected to be 26% short of its historical high, output in the Eagle Ford will be 37% below its record volume, according to data from the Department of Energy report on Monday.
Drilling and completion improvements support Permian Basin hydrocarbon production --The Permian Basin, which spans western Texas and eastern New Mexico, represents the most prolific hydrocarbon production region in the United States. They accounted for about 30% of U.S. crude oil production and 14% of U.S. natural gas production (measured as gross withdrawals) in 2020. Technology innovations, such as longer lateral wells and multi-well pad drilling, has helped reduce costs and increase productivity in developing oil and natural gas resources in the Permian Basin.The Delaware Basin and Midland Basin are parts of the greater Permian Basin and contain multiple stacked reservoirs. As of June 2021, the Delaware Basin had 17,450 producing wells and the Midland Basin had 27,540 producing wells, which have been installed since January 2011, according to data from Enverus. In June 2021,horizontal wells accounted for 84% of the producing wells in the Delaware Basin and 86% of the producing wells in the Midland Basin.Operators continue to drill longer horizontal segments, or laterals, for wells in the stacked reservoirs of the Delaware Basin and Midland Basin. The share of wells with 11,000-foot or longer lateral segments increased from less than 1% in 2014 to around 20% in 2021 across the entire Permian Basin. Currently, exploration and production companies operating in the Permian Basin are successfully testing laterals of more than 15,000 feet. In the first half of 2021, Midland wells averaged lateral lengths of 10,000 feet, while Delaware wells averaged lateral lengths of 8,700 feet. Although well lateral length is still increasing, proppant and fluid use has not changed significantly since 2017. Multi-well pad drilling allows multiple wells to be drilled from a single drill site, or pad. Drilling multiple wells from a single pad increases reservoir penetration with minimal surface disturbance, but it also poses challenges for well spacing optimization, the risk of wellbore collision during drilling, and production interference during simultaneous hydraulic fracturing. In the first half of 2021, 25% of pads in the Midland Basin and Delaware Basin contained at least nine wells, according to data from Enverus.
Oil Prices Could Explode As U.S.' Largest Storage Hub Nears Empty - Back in April 2020, the landlocked West Texas Intermediate crude oil price briefly crashed into negative territory - a stunning turn of events that cost traders massive losses - when the spot oil market found itself with an unprecedented glut as there was literally too much oil to be stored, and as such those traders who were assigned delivery would pay others just to take the physical oil off their hands. Well, in just a few weeks we may see the opposite scenario: no physical oil at all in the largest US commercial storage facility, leading to what may be a superspike in the price of oil. In a note predicting the near-term dynamics of the oil market, JPMorgan's commodity Natasha Kaneva writes that in a world of pervasive nat gas and coal shortages which are forcing the power sector to increasingly turn to oil (boosting demand by 750bkd during winter and drawing inventory by 2.1mmb/d in Nov and Dec), Cushing oil storage - which just dropped to 31.2mm barrels, the lowest since 2018... ... may be just weeks from being "effectively out of crude." The bank's conclusion: "if nothing were to change in the Cushing balance over the next two months, we might expect front WTI spreads to spike to record highs—a “super backwardation” scenario." Before we get into the meat of the note, first some background which as usual these days, begins with Europe's catastrophic handling of its energy needs. As JPM notes, the heating season of 2021/2022 is opening with record high global gas prices even as cold winter weather has yet to arrive. Such are the quirks of the natural gas market that, when/if cold winter arrives, demand for gas tends to outpace any source of supply. In the US alone, in a given week in winter, natural gas demand can surge by 50-70 bcf, if not more, with limited response from supply. The situation is so dire at the moment that - JPMorgan observes - "finding even 1 bcf of spare capacity is becoming increasingly difficult."
Michigan selected for new Coast Guard center to study freshwater oil spills -- Michigan has been chosen as the site of a new Coast Guard National Center of Expertise that will study the impact of freshwater oil spills with the aim of improving effective emergency responses.U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, announced that the center will be located at two sites within Michigan: Lake Superior State University in Sault Ste. Marie, where its supervisor would be located, and another site at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor. Peters worked to designate $4.5 million in federal funding, including $3 million in the year-end spending package last year for the center after getting a bill passed to establish it. Former President Donald Trump signed the legislation in 2018.The legislation followed a hearing in 2017 where the then-commandant of the Coast Guard told Peters that the agency was not prepared for an oil spill in the Great Lakes, as existing technologies for responding to oil spills are designed for salt-water environments.Peters’ legislative language directed the center to be located at an institution that has aquatic research facilities and expertise in Great Lakes ecology. It also had to be near "critical" crude oil pipeline infrastructure "on and connecting the Great Lakes" such as submerged pipelines.The center is expected to focus on scientific or technological gaps in responses to past freshwater oil spills and will be tasked with testing, developing and researching equipment and techniques for responding to oil spills in the Great Lakes and training first responders.
Protesters enter Enbridge property, force shutdown of Straits oil pipeline -A group protesting the continued operation of Canadian oil transportation giant Enbridge's Line 5 pipelines in the Straits of Mackinac released videos on social media Tuesday showing its members entering Enbridge property and closing an emergency shutoff valve to temporarily stop the controversial pipelines' oil and natural gas liquids flows.Enbridge spokesman Ryan Duffy decried the action, stating it was illegal and put the protesters and others in danger. Members of the protester group contacted Enbridge to inform the company of what they were about to do Tuesday, and Duffy said Enbridge personnel shut down the pipeline's flows from its control center, "out of an abundance of caution to protect communities, first responders, and the protesters."Resist Line 3 Media Collective, a grassroots group that opposed construction of that connected Enbridge pipeline from western Canada to Superior, Wisconsin — and whose members were arrested by the hundreds at protests of that line — highlighted Tuesday's action in Michigan on the group's social media platforms. A group spokesman, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the protest in Michigan was done by "autonomous people," adding, "The action is not directly affiliated with us; we are just hoping to amplify it."According to a news release from the Resist Line 3 group, a "Michigan Water Protector" closed the shutoff valve on the 68-year-old Line 5 pipeline "in accordance with Gov. Whitmer's order." Duffy said the valve shutdown occurred on a Lower Peninsula segment of the pipeline, in rural Tuscola County, near Vassar.Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced last November she would be revoking Enbridge's 1954 easement from the state to use the lake bottom for its pipelines, citing "Enbridge’s persistent and incurable violations of the easement’s terms and conditions," and the potential dangers of an oil spill to Michigan's environment and economy.Enbridge in May continued to operate Line 5 in defiance of Whitmer's shutdown deadline, stating both publicly and in court that Michigan doesn't have the legal authority to regulate interstate oil and gas pipelines. Michigan is seeking to remand the federal case back to Michigan courts.The Canadian government earlier this month invoked a 1977 pipelines treaty with the U.S., seeking to halt U.S. District Court proceedings on a potential Line 5 shutdown and calling for bilateral negotiations between the two countries to resolve any disputes. A Twitter post from Release Line 3 quoted the valve turner as saying, "I know my life is in danger from the risk of a spill and from the contributions to climate change."
Protesters alone at Enbridge site for an hour due to delayed response -- Law enforcement officials did not arrive Tuesday at an Enbridge facility where protesters were tampering with a safety valve until all individuals had already left the scene — more than an hour after protesters notified police and the company of their plans.The demonstrators remained alone and unencumbered at an Enbridge valve facility in the thumb region Tuesday for at least an hour because of a law enforcement delay, according to the protesters' livestream of the event. During that time, a protester shimmied under the fence protecting the Tuscola County valve facility and used a plumber's wrench to turn a bolt he said would shut off the line. The work was accompanied by a live musician with a microphone and electric guitar. Enbridge said it shut the line down upon receiving the call to its emergency line. Even absent a call from protesters, the company's control center — which monitors the line 24/7 — would have registered any changes to valve status and been "alerted immediately," Enbridge spokesman Ryan Duffy said Wednesday.Protesters placed two calls at the start of their break-in at the Tuscola County Enbridge site: One to 911 at 12:06 p.m. Tuesday and a second almost immediately afterward to an Enbridge emergency line. Enbridge never called 911 after receiving the call to its emergency line that alerted the company to protesters' location and plans, according to the results of a public records request. The company, instead, maintains it called the sheriff department directly. The lone 911 call to Tuscola County dispatch regarding the threat against Line 5 Tuesday came from the protesters themselves who notified dispatchers that they intended to shut down Line 5. The protesters did not say where they were located and hung up as a dispatcher began to ask their location, leading law enforcement to scramble to determine which location was under threat. "There was confusion about where the call originated, was it even in the area," said Tuscola County Prosecutor Mark Reene. He said there also was "concern about what exactly was happening" and what sort of police resources might be needed to address the threat.
Coast Guard: California oil spill likely 25,000 gallons -(AP) — The amount of crude oil spilled in an offshore pipeline leak in Southern California is believed to be close to 25,000 gallons, or only about one-fifth of what officials initially feared, a Coast Guard official said Thursday. The leak off the coast of Orange County was previously estimated to be at least 25,000 gallons (94,635 liters) and no more than 132,000 gallons (499,674 liters). The final count for the spill will likely be closer to the lower figure, which correlates with the amount of oiling seen on the California shore, Coast Guard Capt. Rebecca Ore said Thursday. "We have a high degree of confidence that the spill amount is approximately 588 barrels," she told reporters. "That number may potentially adjust a small degree." Workers in protective gear continue to comb the sand for oil washing ashore. Roy Kim, an environmental scientist with California's Office of Spill Prevention and Response, said the size of tar balls being collected on coastal beaches has diminished from the early days after the spill. He said teams have been dispatched from Bolsa Chica State Beach in Huntington Beach to La Jolla in San Diego County. The spill off Huntington Beach was confirmed on Oct. 2, a day after residents reported a petroleum smell in the area. Coast Guard officials said it came from a pipeline owned by Houston-based Amplify Energy that shuttles crude from offshore platforms to the coast. Officials have said the cause remains under investigation, and they believe the pipeline was likely damaged by a ship's anchor several months to a year before it ruptured. Huntington city and state beaches as well as the shoreline in neighboring Newport Beach were shut down until Monday.
California Oil Spill Update: Dolphin Found Stranded On Cabrillo Beach – – The Unified Command provided an update on the Huntington Beach Oil Spill efforts Friday. While reports from trained officials and personnel claim that significant strides are being made, some concerning aftereffects have been found. The Pacific Marine Mammal Center was called to respond to reports of a stranded dolphin on Cabrillo Beach Thursday morning. The dolphin, a juvenile northern right whale dolphin, was humanely euthanized after what officials called a difficult decision. A necropsy completed shortly after found no oil inside nor outside of the dolphin, but continued investigation will look into the cause of death. Dozens of birds have died in the aftermath of the oil spill, while many have also been rescued and cleaned before returned to their habitat. Unified Command reports that of the 32 they’ve captured in the Costa Mesa area, 24 have been cleaned while eight have gone through rehabilitation for their release. Since October 5, no free-floating oil has been found on the surface of the water and all public beaches in Orange County, San Diego as well as most of Los Angeles are open. Tarball size has gradually reduced in size as days go by and they are more widely dispersed since the leak has been contained. Unified Command has reduced the use of overflights in recent days, focusing more on the use of smaller and more environmentally friendly drones to assess more sensitive areas, to reduce further environmental impact. While continued efforts are underway, Unified Command’s public health assessment unit will continue to run water and sediment sampling – reporting no abnormalities thus far. They will however conclude their testing of air have reached normal levels and are well within the common background levels.
Aging equipment, spills test ties between oil, California (AP) - Hoping to recover a lost anchor chain, a work boat dragged a grappling hook along the seabed near an oil platform off the Southern California coast. But it hooked something else -- a pipeline carrying crude oil from the towering rig to shore. Once snagged, the 197-foot (60-meter) boat dragged the pipeline until it snapped on one of the drilling platform's legs. The gushing oil created a slick that ran for miles along the Ventura County coast northwest of Los Angeles. The May 1991 accident provides a snapshot of the environmental dangers and trade-offs that come with the network of oil platforms and pipelines off Southern California's world-famous coastline. The uneasy relationship is being tested again after a leaking undersea pipeline off Huntington Beach fouled beaches and killed seabirds and fish this month. In the latest case, investigators believe it's likely a cargo ship's massive anchor struck and dragged the 16-inch (41- centimeter) pipeline up to a year ago. It's suspected the damage led to the pipeline cracking and spilling about 25,000 gallons (94,635 liters) of crude.The incident has renewed calls to end drilling in coastal waters and comes amid a societal reckoning over climate change and continued reliance on fossil fuels. It's also raising questions about the soundness of old equipment, limits on government safety oversight, how willing companies are to make needed investments in repairs and whether it makes sense to have drilling rigs and pipelines near one of the world's busiest port complexes.The latest spill involved a pipeline that serves a cluster of three oil platforms several miles off the coast, south of Los Angeles. Original owner Shell Oil began operating the "Beta Unit" in 1980 and anticipated the operation would last about 35 years, "at which time the platform and other offshore facilities will be removed and the wells sealed." They are now operating into a fourth decade.
California oil spill that shut down beaches was about 25,000 gallons – CNN - When crude oil leaked into the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Southern California earlier this month, the amount spilled was about 25,000 gallons, officials said Friday. "We have a high degree of confidence that the spill amount is approximately 588 barrels of oil," US Coast Guard spokesperson Amy Stork said. "This is consistent with NOAA scientific data, overflight observations and shoreline assessment team findings." The amount, equal to about 25,000 gallons, is more than five times lower than the previously estimated 131,000 gallons. The spill was caused by a leak in a pipeline operated by Houston-based Amplify Energy that is connected to an oil rig. Investigators believe the crack in the pipeline, which was likely caused by a ship's anchor dragging along the ocean floor, might have begun as long as a year ago. The California Department of Justice announced Monday that it is working with federal, state, and local authorities to determine the exact cause of the spill. Earlier this week, the city of Huntington Beach reopened its shoreline after water testing results came back with non-detectable amounts of oil-associated toxins in ocean water. On a website dedicated to the response to the spill, the city said water quality will be tested twice a week for at least two more weeks. The Oiled Wildlife Network reported that as of Thursday 84 birds were recovered, 53 of which were found dead. Fourteen dead fish were found, the group said. The pipeline was intact in October 2020 before it was deflected or deviated by 105 feet, eventually leading to damage to its casing and a 13-inch crack, Jason Neubauer, chief of the office of investigations and analysis for the US Coast Guard, said last week. Video released by the Coast Guard showed marine growth on the damaged portion of the pipeline, which was initially enclosed in concrete. Neubauer explained the linear fracture on the pipeline could have been a crack, which got gradually worse over time. "This event could be multiple incidents and strikes on the pipeline after the initial event, that we're pretty confident occurred several months to a year ago," Neubauer said.
FBI joins investigation into California oil spill - The FBI has joined the investigation into the oil spill off the coast of Orange County, which the Coast Guard said was much smaller than earlier estimates, officials said Thursday. Multiple state and federal investigative agencies are already examining whether any criminal violations occurred with the pipeline leak, which spilled into the waters off Huntington Beach nearly two weeks ago. Officials have not yet served any search warrants in connection with the investigation, Laura Eimiller, an FBI spokeswoman, said. Officials initially estimated as much as 144,000 gallons of oil was spilled into the ocean but later revised that number to between 24,696 and 131,000 gallons. On Thursday, U.S. Coast Guard Lt Cmdr. Scott Carr said the agency is confident the number of gallons leaked is around 25,000, based on scientific data and years of handling such spills. The Coast Guard’s criminal investigative unit, the California attorney general’s office and the Orange County district attorney’s office are all already conducting a criminal inquiry. The FBI is now assisting with the criminal investigation, which among other things is examining whether there was a negligent discharge of oil into navigable waters. An oil sheen was first spotted the evening of Oct. 2 by a vessel 4½ miles off Huntington Beach and then detected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A federal agency that oversees pipelines has already initiated an inquiry and requested documentation from Amplify Energy, the parent company of Beta Offshore, which operates the pipeline linked to platforms off the coast. But so far, no investigative agency has acknowledged serving search warrants or subpoenas on the oil company or any shipping company. At least two vessels that were near the pipeline Oct. 2 have been boarded by Coast Guard investigators to determine whether they could have been involved. Both have since been cleared.
Ship owner, operator of interest in California oil spill - -- The U.S. Coast Guard has designated the Mediterranean Shipping Company and others as parties of interest in an investigation into a vessel that was determined to be the source of an offshore pipeline leak in Southern California. Coast Guard and National Transportation Safety Board marine casualty investigators boarded a container ship, MSC DANIT, on Saturday in the Port of Long Beach that was involved in a January anchor-dragging incident discovered to be the source of the spill off Huntington Beach on Oct. 2, according to Lt. Cmdr. Braden Rostad. The designation announced in a statement on Saturday names ship operator Mediterranean Shipping Company S.A. and ship owner Dordellas Finance Corporation. It provides the owner and operator of MSC DANIT the opportunity to be represented by counsel, to examine and cross-examine witnesses and to call witnesses relevant to the investigation, the statement said. An investigation into the spill, which includes multiple pipeline scenarios and additional vessels, is ongoing.
Coast Guard says a ship's anchor dragged California oil pipeline that later leaked - Investigators believe a 1,200-foot cargo ship dragging anchor in rough seas caught an underwater oil pipeline and pulled it across the seafloor, months before a leak from the line fouled the Southern California coastline with crude. A team of federal investigators trying to chase down the cause of the spill boarded the Panama-registered MSC DANIT just hours after the massive ship arrived this weekend off the Port of Long Beach, the same area where the leak was discovered in early October. During a prior visit by the ship during a heavy storm in January, investigators believe its anchor dragged for an unknown distance before striking the 16-inch steel pipe, Coast Guard Lt. j.g. SondraKay Kneen said Sunday. The impact would have knocked an inch-thick concrete casing off the pipe and pulled it more than 100 feet, bending but not breaking the line, Kneen said. Still undetermined is whether the impact caused the October leak, or if the line was hit by something else at a later date or failed due to a preexisting problem, Kneen said. "We're still looking at multiple vessels and scenarios," she said. The Coast Guard on Saturday designated the owner and operator as parties of interest in its investigation into the spill, estimated to have released about 25,000 gallons of crude into the water, killing birds, fish and mammals. The accident just a few miles off Huntington Beach in Orange County fouled beaches and wetlands and led to temporary closures for cleanup work . While not as bad as initially feared, it has reignited the debate over offshore drilling in federal waters in the Pacific, where hundreds of miles of pipelines were installed decades ago. The DANIT's operator, MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, is headquartered in Switzerland and has a fleet of 600 vessels and more than 100,000 workers, according to the company. MSC representatives did not immediately respond to email messages seeking comment. A security guard reached by telephone at the company's headquarters in Geneva said it was closed until Monday. The vessel's owner, identified by the Coast Guard as Dordellas Finance Corporation, could not be reached for comment. The DANIT arrived in Long Beach this weekend after voyaging from China, according to marine traffic monitoring websites. The investigation into what caused the spill could lead to criminal charges or civil penalties, but none have been announced yet, and Kneen said the probe could continue for months.
Coast Guard names "parties in interest" in anchor-dragging incident that damaged pipeline ahead of oil spill - CBS News -The Coast Guard on Saturday named both the owner and operator of a vessel as "parties in interest" believed to be connected to a massive oil spill along the southern California coastline earlier this month. Coast Guard Lieutenant (junior grade) SondraKay Kneen said Sunday that investigators believe a ship's anchor dragged for an unknown distance before striking an undersea pipeline in January. On Saturday, the Coast Guard designated the MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, S.A. (MSC), the operator of the vessel, and Dordellas Finance Corporation, the owner of the vessel, as "parties in interest" to the marine casualty investigation. This designation means they have the opportunity to be represented by counsel to examine and cross-examine witnesses and to call relevant witnesses. The Coast Guard said in a statement that members of the Coast Guard and National Transportation Safety Board marine casualty investigators boarded the container ship MSC DANIT in the Port of Long Beach. Prior to Saturday's visit, Lieutenant Commander Braden Rostad, Chief of Investigations, Sector Los Angeles-Long Beach determined that the Mediterranean Shipping Company DANIT had dragged an anchor in proximity to a 16-inch steel pipeline during a heavy weather event that impacted the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.The pipeline has been determined to be the source of the October 2, 2021 oil spill. The Coast Guard said last week that a ship's anchor likely hooked and damaged the underwater pipeline, which now has a linear 13-inch fracture. The last time the pipeline had been inspected was October 2020. Since then, it has been dragged more than 100 miles. About 26,000 gallons of crude oil is believed to have leaked into the Pacific Ocean near Huntington Beach. Beaches were closed in the area until last week, and more than four dozen animals, mostly birds and fish, have been found dead since the spill, though not all were visibly oiled, according to the Oiled Wildlife Care Network.
Regulators underestimated scope of California oil spill - LA Times -- Regulators scrutinizing plans for an oil pipeline off the Orange County coast in the 1970s examined the potential damage in the event of a ship anchor strike but downplayed the risks, concluding that a resulting spill would be minor, according to documents reviewed by The Times.Regulators predicted in 1978 that a leak would result in a spill of only 50 barrels of oil, records show. That’s less than a tenth of the minimum amount of oil that leaked in waters off the Orange County coast this month in an accident investigators believe was caused when a cargo ship waiting to enter the port dropped its anchor and hit the pipeline. Experts in oil pipeline construction now say the regulators badly underestimated the potential disaster from an anchor strike and missed an opportunity that might have prompted additional safeguards and prevented the major oil spill that fouled a long stretch of Orange County beaches.“Their presentations were fatally flawed…. In no scenario could you come up with 50 barrels,” said Richard Kuprewicz, the president of Accufacts Inc., who specializes in gas and liquid pipeline investigations. “If there was more frank discussion of what could possibly occur it probably would have initiated discussions on what actions to take, because the risks were severely understated.” Officials investigating the spill say an anchor probably snagged the pipeline at a point shortly after it starts its run on top of the seabed, weakening its structure and eventually causing a gash that spilled at least 588 barrels of oil. Investigators are homing in on ships that anchored in the area in January, when high winds could have caused a ship to drift and its anchor to drag across the line. A Times review of federal data shows that anchor strikes have caused pipeline ruptures that resulted in hazardous liquids spills only 17 times since 1986, but they sometimes caused devastating damage. A spill off the Texas coast in 1988 was more than 26 times the size of this month’s in California waters. Three years ago, a barge moving through the waters between the upper and lower peninsulas of Michigan accidentally dropped its anchor and dragged the 12,000-pound device along the lake bed, severing two of the six underwater cables that supply power to Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and damaging a third, spilling about 800 gallons of dielectric mineral oil, the National Transportation Safety Board found in a 2019 report. Officials estimated that the cost to repair the cables alone was $100 million. The anchor also struck and dented, but didn’t rupture, the controversial Line 5 pipeline, which carries oil from western to eastern Canada underneath the Great Lakes. Though anchor strikes are rare, severe weather is associated with their occurrence. Hurricanes in particular have wreaked havoc on underwater infrastructure, stirring up winds forceful enough to blow even large container ships off course, break the moorings of offshore platforms and leave both dragging heavy anchors across the seafloor.
Company behind O.C. oil spill received millions in federal relief - The energy company at the center of a massive oil spill off the Orange County coast has received roughly $31 million in federal relief since 2016, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) said during a congressional subcommittee hearing on Monday.Oil and gas companies pay royalties to the government in exchange for leases on federal property. The government sometimes reduces the amount of those royalties.Beta Offshore, a subsidiary of Amplify Energy, received a $20-million “end of life” royalty discount for two years starting in July 2016 because its wells were close to being tapped dry and were no longer producing as much oil, Porter said.The company operates the ruptured San Pedro Bay Pipeline, which sent an estimated 25,000 gallons of oil into the waters off Orange County this month.In June 2020, Beta Offshore received another royalty discount, this time because it planned to drill four new wells, Porter said.The “special case” discount granted by the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement will cut the company’s royalty payment by roughly $11 million on drilling operations off the Orange County coast through 2022.The discount would enable the company to generate additional revenue of about $7 million per year, Amplify officials have predicted.The company also received a $5.5-million Paycheck Protection Program loan in 2020 that was later forgiven.“These subsidies and so many others are reasons that oil wells like the ones behind this leak are still active,” Porter said. “Getting rid of the subsidies is the first step to get rid of the problem.”Monday’s hearing of the House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources and the Natural Resources Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations was called to discuss the effects of this month’s oil spill on the environment and local economy.Porter said during the hearing that she received the information about the royalty relief from the Department of the Interior when she inquired about the type of subsidies Beta Offshore received from the federal government.Subsidies to fossil fuel producers are not uncommon, experts say.
California oil spill: cargo ship dragged pipeline months before spill -- Investigators believe a 1,200-foot cargo ship dragging anchor in rough seas caught an underwater oil pipeline and pulled it across the seafloor, months before a leak from the line fouled the Southern California coastline with crude.A team of federal investigators trying to chase down the cause of the spill boarded the Panama-registered MSC DANIT just hours after the massive ship arrived this weekend off the Port of Long Beach, the same area where the leak was discovered in early October.During a prior visit by the ship during a heavy storm in January, investigators believe its anchor dragged for an unknown distance before striking the 16-inch steel pipe, Coast Guard Lt. j.g. SondraKay Kneen said Sunday.The impact would have knocked an inch-thick concrete casing off the pipe and pulled it more than 100 feet , bending but not breaking the line, Kneen said.Still undetermined is whether the impact caused the October leak, or if the line was hit by something else at a later date or failed due to a preexisting problem, Kneen said.“We're still looking at multiple vessels and scenarios,” she said.The Coast Guard on Saturday designated the owner and operator as parties of interest in its investigation into the spill, estimated to have released about 25,000 gallons of crude into the water, killing birds, fish and mammals.The accident just a few miles off Los Angeles' Huntington Beach fouled beaches and wetlands and led to temporary closures for cleanup work . While not as bad as initially feared, it has reignited the debate over offshore drilling in federal waters in the Pacific, where hundreds of miles of pipelines were installed decades ago.The DANIT's operator, MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, is headquartered in Switzerland and has a fleet of 600 vessels and more than 100,000 workers, according to the company. MSC representatives did not immediately respond to email messages seeking comment. The vessel's owner, identified by the Coast Guard as Dordellas Finance Corporation, could not be reached for comment. The DANIT arrived in Long Beach this weekend after voyaging from China, according to marine traffic monitoring websites. The investigation into what caused the spill could lead to criminal charges or civil penalties, but none have been announced yet, and Kneen said the probe could continue for months.
Officials hold hearing on Orange County oil spill | KTLA (news video) A congressional field hearing is being held in Irvine Monday to discuss the effects of a massive oil leak off the Orange County coast earlier this month. U.S. Reps. Katie Porter, Alan Lowenthal and Mike Levin are attending the hearing, which began at 9 a.m.The hearing comes two days after investigators from the U.S. Coast Guard boarded a cargo vessel in Long Beach that could be tied to the ruptured pipeline, which spilled an estimated 25,000 gallons of oil.Chris Wolfe and Christina Pascucci report for the KTLA 5 Morning News on Oct. 18, 2021.
Oil Spill Cleanup Progresses in Both Orange and San Diego Counties - Crews worked throughout the weekend to remove remaining tar balls and assess beaches for further treatment. Workers removed all boom in Orange and San Diego counties with the exception of Talbert Marsh. All public beaches in Orange County and San Diego County are open.“The amount of tar balls continue to decline and segments of beach are recommended for no further clean-up activities,” said Capt. Rebecca Ore, federal on-scene coordinator for the response. The Oiled Wildlife Care Network, in cooperation with the UC, released 10 animals after proper cleaning and rehabilitation.“Onshore seafood sampling has been conducted and offshore testing is expected to start on October 24. Data collected and subsequent analysis of those samples will be used to evaluate seafood safety for fisheries in the areas affected by the Southern California spill. The Director of California’s Department of Fish and Wildlife will reopen them upon recommendation by the CalEPA’s Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment,” said Lt. Christian Corbo, state on-scene coordinator for the response.Boat decontamination sites in Huntington Beach, Long Beach and Newport Beach continue to operate. For more information or to report located tar balls, visitwww.SoCalSpillResponse.com/tarballs. To report oiled wildlife, call 1-877-823-6926. The investigation regarding the cause of the spill continues:
New proposal would create California oil drilling buffers - — The Newsom administration on Thursday took the first step toward banning new oil and gas wells within 3,200 feet of homes, schools and healthcare facilities, and requiring emissions monitoring of existing wells within those buffer zones, a move urged by environmental and public health advocates who say the toxins, odors and hazards from oil fields disproportionately affect Latino and Black communities. The proposed state regulation is expected to affect more than 2 million residents who live within health and safety zones, as well as thousands of existing wells in the urban oil fields of Los Angeles County and in Kern County, the heart of California oil country. Still, the new restrictions would probably not go into effect until 2023 because of the state’s arduous process of crafting new regulations, and portions could be changed along the way. The proposal is expected to face an aggressive challenge from California’s billion-dollar oil industry. Gov. Gavin Newsom said the driving force behind the regulation is the public health risk linked to oil and gas production, with studies showing increased risks for cancer and adverse health effects for pregnant women and newborn babies, along with incidence of asthma and other ailments. “This is about public health, public safety, clean air, clean water,” Newsom said at a press conference at the Wilmington Boys & Girls Club, which neighbors one of many oil wells in Southern California. “This is about our kids and our grandkids and our future. A greener, cleaner, brighter, more resilient future is in our grasp.”
California moves to ban oil wells within 3,200 feet of homes and schools - California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday proposed a statewide 3,200-foot buffer zone to separate homes, schools, hospitals and other populated areas from oil and gas wells. The draft rule, released by the state's oil regulator California Geologic Energy Management Division (CalGEM), would not ban existing wells within those areas but would require new pollution controls. California is the seventh-largest oil-producing state in the country but has no rule or standard for the distance that active wells need to be from communities. More than 2 million state residents live within 2,500 feet of an operational oil and gas well, and another 5 million, or 14% of the California's population, are within 1 mile, according to an analysis by the non-profit FracTracker Alliance. People who live near oil and gas drilling sites are at greater risk of preterm births, asthma, respiratory disease and cancer, research shows. Oil drilling disproportionately affects Black and Latino residents in major oil fields like Los Angeles County and Kern County. The new restrictions could take a couple years to go into effect and will likely face pushback from the state's oil and gas industry. The Western States Petroleum Association and the State Building and Construction Trades Council have opposed a statewide mandate to impose setbacks, arguing that buffer zones will raise fuel costs and harm workers. "Our reliance on fossil fuels has resulted in more kids getting asthma, more children born with birth defects, and more communities exposed to toxic, dangerous chemicals," Newsom said in a statement. "California is taking a significant step to protect the more than two million residents who live within a half-mile of oil drilling sites, many in low-income and communities of color." Environmental advocacy groups have long urged the governor to instate a 2,500-foot setback between fossil fuel operations and communities, as well as place an immediate moratorium on all new oil and gas permits in those zones. Legislation to ban fracking and instate a buffer zone failed this year in a state committee vote. Other oil producing states like Colorado, Pennsylvania and Texas have imposed some form of setback between properties and oil operations. If adopted, California's 3,200-foot setback would be the largest in the country. Newsom initially directed regulators to study buffer zones around oil wells in 2019, but they didn't meet the December 2020 deadline to release that information. "The largest statewide buffer zone in the country is a huge victory for frontline communities that have fought for health protections for years," Kassie Siegel, director of the Center for Biological Diversity's Climate Law Institute, said in a statement.
Enbridge fails to meet aquifer cleanup deadline - Enbridge has failed to meet the Oct. 15 deadline for cleaning up the site of an aquifer ruptured during construction of its controversial Line 3 oil pipeline, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) reported Friday. Meanwhile, the DNR is investigating two other sites where the company may have caused additional groundwater damage, the agency said in a statement. The DNR did not identify the locations of the other sites. State regulators will require compensation for the loss of groundwater during the additional time it takes to stop the groundwater flow, the DNR said. And Enbridge also will be held accountable for any other violations. While working on the pipeline in January, crews from the Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge dug too deeply and punctured an artesian aquifer near Clearbrook, Minn. The damage caused the aquifer to leak at least 24 million gallons of groundwater, threatening to dry up a nearby rare and delicate wetland area called a calcareous fen. The DNR learned about the leak in June after independent construction monitors reported water pooling in the pipeline trench. On Sept. 16, the department ordered Enbridge to pay $3.32 million for failing to follow environmental laws. "Enbridge is fully cooperating with the Minnesota DNR in correcting uncontrolled groundwater flows at Clearbrook, and is working with the DNR as two other locations are being evaluated," company spokeswoman Juli Kellner said by e-mail Saturday. Kellner did not give the locations of the two other sites but stressed they are not at Clearbrook. Winona LaDuke, who heads the Honor the Earth Indigenous environmental group, called the company's failure to meet the deadline alarming. "If Enbridge can't meet basic safety requirements, they should not be allowed to operate a pipeline," she said. "This is a deep concern, that they can't fix a problem they made. It doesn't bode well for the future." Oil started flowing through the pipeline Oct. 1. Strongly opposed by environmental groups and some Ojibwe bands, the line carries a thick Canadian crude across northern Minnesota to the company's terminal in Superior, Wis. Under the DNR's order, Enbridge put $2.75 million into escrow for restoration and damage to the fen. Enbridge could recover some of the escrow deposit if remediation costs less — or pay more if costs run higher.
To Stop Line 3 Across Minnesota, an Indigenous Tribe Is Asserting the Legal Rights of Wild Rice - Late last month, Enbridge Energy announced that it had completed construction of its Line 3 oil pipeline replacement across Minnesota, despite strenuous opposition from Native American tribes and environmental activists. But a permit issued to Enbridge for construction of the pipeline is being challenged in the White Earth Nation tribal court, in an unconventional case that asserts the legal rights of Manoomin, or wild rice, to “exist, flourish, regenerate and evolve.” The plant, which “grows on water,” is the lead plaintiff in the case, joined by the White Earth Band of Ojibwe and others. The case is the first rights of nature enforcement action filed in a tribal court and is notable because the plaintiffs claim that acts taken by the state of Minnesota on non-reservation land have impinged on the rights of Manoomin, which are protected under a 2018 White Earth Nation tribal law. Rights of nature laws have taken root in more than 30 Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities across the country in, among other states, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Globally, rights of nature legislation, judicial rulings and constitutional amendments have emerged in Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, India, New Zealand, Ecuador and Uganda, among other countries. Proponents of the laws argue that if non-human entities like corporations, trusts and governments have legal rights, elements of nature ought to have unique rights, too, with selected humans acting as their legal guardians. The proponents contend that current environmental protection law treats nature as human property that can be damaged and destroyed, which has resulted in an ecological crisis facing the planet. By giving nature legal rights, they say, humans can begin to change direction toward a more sustainable future. Doing so will require humans to change their relationship with the environment, the proponents say, moving away from exploiting it toward an interdependent relationship, in which humans come to see themselves as an intrinsic part of nature. Those ideas are rooted in Indigenous world views and the incorporation of rights of nature laws into western legal systems is seen by some advocates as a shift towards a more pluralistic legal system.
More oil trains will run through Minnesota, Twin Cities - A new Canadian railroad venture is sparking a significant increase of 15 to 20 oil trains that run through Minnesota each month. Canadian Pacific Railway's specialized new Canadian crude cargoes run on its main line, which bisects the Twin Cities. And the Canadian rail giant's recent deal to purchase a major U.S. railroad will likely make its new oil service even more appealing to shippers. Oil-by-rail has stoked safety concerns in Minnesota and elsewhere since 2013 when an oil train in Quebec caught fire and exploded, killing 47 people.Since then, several more oil trains in North America have derailed and spilled, some catching fire. Canadian Pacific declined to say how many of the new oil trains it's currently running. But during a conference call with analysts in July, the railroad's chief marketing officer said he expects "business to ramp up to 15 to 20 trains per month during the third quarter," which ended Sept. 30. Their destination: Port Arthur, Texas. Canadian Pacific and the company behind the new Alberta, Canada, rail venture, USD Partners, say they're using a new technology that makes shipping oil safe enough it need not be categorized as a flammable hazardous cargo. But the venture and USD's claims have some skeptics. "There are a lot of problems with this proposal and the complete lack of transparency around it," said Frank Hornstein, the Minneapolis DFLer who heads the Minnesota House's Transportation Finance and Policy Committee. Most Canadian crude bound for the United States — by far Canada's biggest oil export market — travels on pipelines, particularly Enbridge's corridor of six lines across Minnesota. Enbridge recently completed a $3 billion-plus pipeline to replace Line 3, which was corroding and able to operate only at 50% of capacity. One of Enbridge's arguments for the controversial pipeline was that without it, the number of oil trains in Minnesota would multiply, said Laura Triplett, a geology and environmental studies professor at Gustavus Adolphus College. "Now we are getting more trains anyway," she said.
Additional pipeline capacity from Canada to the United States could displace some crude oil by rail -- On October 1, 2021, the Enbridge Inc. Line 3 replacement pipeline became fully operational, delivering crude oil from Edmonton, Alberta, to Superior, Wisconsin. The pipeline’s start comes seven years after the announcement of the Line 3 replacement project, which was designed to restore the pipeline’s capacity to 760,000 barrels per day (b/d), from about half that amount, and improve its safety. Because the Line 3 replacement project increases the capacity for U.S. crude oil imports by pipeline from Canada, it could displace some crude oil currently shipped by rail. This change could increase Western Canada Select (WCS) crude oil prices and narrow the price spread between WCS and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which has at times widened significantly as a result of a lack of pipeline capacity. In addition, the expanded capacity could facilitate the expected growth in Canada’s crude oil production through 2022.Enbridge’s Line 3 originally became operational in 1968 but, due to corrosion, transported decreasing amounts of crude oil over time. The replacement project was proposed in 2014, but litigation over the replacement pipeline’s approval,particularly in Minnesota, delayed its opening. Line 3, which along with Lines 1, 2B, and 4 make up Enbridge’s Mainline, spans 1,097 miles, with the U.S. replacement segment running 13 miles through the northeast corner of North Dakota, 337 miles through Minnesota, and 14 miles through Wisconsin (highlighted line in Figure 1).The Wisconsin and North Dakota portions of the project were completed in 2018 and 2020, respectively.The new line will increase pipeline import capacity into the U.S. Midwest and through to the Gulf Coast. From Superior, Wisconsin, one possible path of southern flows will be down Enbridge’s Line 6 and Mustang pipelines to Patoka, Illinois, where it can connect to several pipelines (not all pictured), including Marathon’s Capline pipeline when that project is completed, expected in early 2022. The Capline pipeline previously delivered 1.2 million b/d of mostly imported crude oil from St. James, Louisiana, north to Patoka, but has been idled for several years because domestic crude oil has displaced imports of light crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast. The pipeline is currently undergoing a reversal that will carry light crude oil produced in the Bakken region and heavy crude oil produced in Canada from Patoka to St. James. Another way to transport crude oil from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast is via the Flanagan South and Spearhead pipelines that extend from Pontiac, Illinois, to Cushing, Oklahoma. From Cushing, crude oil can flow to Gulf Coast refiners via several pipelines, including TC Energy’s Marketlinkpipeline and the Seaway pipeline.
Judge sides with company in royalties dispute with state (AP) — A judge has sided with a Houston-based energy company in a dispute with North Dakota involving oil and natural gas royalties, a decision that could affect several other drillers that allegedly owe the state millions of dollars in payments, the biggest portion of which is meant to support public education. Northwest District Court Judge Robin Schmidt’s ruling Wednesday stems from a lawsuit Newfield Exploration filed against the state after the Department of Trust Lands conducted an audit in 2016 that claimed the company was underpaying royalties to the agency that leases rights for grazing and oil, coal and gravel production from state lands. The agency manages several state trust funds including a fund that benefits public schools. Schmidt’s ruling follows a trial last week in Watford City. She wrote that the state’s claim of a breach of contract with the company was in question because the state failed to provide “any contract or lease ... that allows this court to meaningfully review the contract obligations and whether a breach has occurred.” The state Supreme Court sided with the Board of University and School Lands, referred to as the Land Board, two years ago in the debate that started with the lawsuit filed by Newfield in 2018 after the state determined that companies were taking improper deductions. The case was sent back to the lower court. Land Commissioner Jodi Smith said the five-member Land Board, led by Republican Gov. Doug Burgum, may decide at its next meeting on Oct. 28 whether to appeal the recent lower court decision to the state’s high court. North Dakota Petroleum Council President Ron Ness said Schmidt’s ruling has “huge ramifications” for the energy industry, and the more than two dozen operators that are in similar situation as Newfield.
North Dakota can claim pipeline policing costs as damages (AP) — North Dakota can continue to pursue reimbursement from the federal government of the millions of dollars spent policing protests against the Dakota Access oil pipeline, a judge has ruled.U.S. District Court Judge Daniel Traynor on Tuesday denied the federal government’s motion to dismiss North Dakota’s attempt to recover more than $38 million from the monthslong pipeline protests five years ago.The federal government argued North Dakota’s emergency response expenses are not “money damages” for “injury or loss of property.” Traynor, who is based in Bismarck and nominated for the judgeship by former President Donald Trump, ruled the state’s claim of damages is permissible. The state filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in 2019. North Dakota Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem has long argued that the Corps allowed and sometimes encouraged protesters to illegally camp without a federal permit. The Corps has said protesters weren’t evicted due to free speech reasons.
North Dakota on brink of more radioactive oil waste disposal options - North Dakota's oil industry could soon have a second option for disposing of radioactive waste within the state, and a regulator sees potential for more facilities. The North Dakota Industrial Commission recently permitted a second well slated for McKenzie County in which oil field waste would be mixed with saltwater into a slurry and injected deep underground. State Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms anticipates the other three core Bakken counties -- Williams, Mountrail and Dunn -- could each have a well down the road. “That would round us out pretty well and put us in a situation where much of our TENORM waste could be dealt with very economically and dealt with here in-state in an extremely safe manner,” he said, using the acronym for technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive material. About 100,000 tons of radioactive oil field waste is produced in the state each year. Until the first slurry well started operating near Watford City in April, it was all trucked to other states for disposal in landfills or, more rarely, dumped illegally. North Dakota did not have any options for disposal within the state. The waste stems from soil, water and rocks that naturally contain low levels of radiation underground. When those materials are brought up to the earth’s surface during oil production, radiation can become concentrated in filter socks used to strain oil field fluids, in sludge at the bottom of storage tanks and in scale that forms in well pipes. The well recently approved by regulators still needs to secure a radioactive material license from the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality to take in such waste. It’s slated to be built north of Alexander by a company called GMJS Services.
Biden administration lets stand a judgment thwarting Willow, a ConocoPhillips drilling project in Arctic - - Conservation groups are cheering the Biden administration’s decision not to appeal a judgment that reversed approval for Willow, the ConocoPhillips’ plan to develop five drilling sites in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason ruled in August that the Trump administration didn’t adequately consider greenhouse gas emissions or the impact on polar bears when it approved the plan.The Biden administration initially defended the Willow approval, but Tuesday was the deadline for an appeal and the government didn’t file one. Nor did ConocoPhillips.Jeremy Lieb, an attorney in the Anchorage office of Earthjustice, said Willow doesn’t fit with the Biden administration’s climate goals.“We’re pleased to see that the administration has recognized that at this point and is not continuing to defend the plan in court on appeal,” he said.Willow is a big priority for U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski. The Biden administration’s initial defense of the project was seen as an overture to her, as she is one of the few Senate Republicans who might vote for some of Biden’s priorities.Interior Department spokeswoman Melissa Schwartz didn’t say why the government didn’t file an appeal.“The matter has now been remanded to the BLM,” she said in an email. “In light of the court’s decision, we are reviewing to determine next steps.”If the Bureau of Land Management decides to do another environmental review to comply with the judge’s order, environmental groups hope the agency scraps the project or imposes more restrictions.A ConocoPhillips spokeswoman says the company remains committed to the project.“ConocoPhillips is not appealing the court’s earlier decision because we believe the best path forward is to engage directly with the relevant agencies to address the matters described in the decision,” she said by email Thursday.
Quebec Premier Calls for Banning Hydrocarbon Production, LNG Exports -- Foreshadowed for years, French Canada said it plans to ban fossil fuel production by rejecting exploration and production development and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. “The government of Quebec has taken a decision to renounce, definitively, extraction of hydrocarbons in its territory,” said Premier Fancois Legault. He announced the move in an annual State of the Province address to the province’s National Assembly. Legault described the planned production prohibition as a recipe for prosperity in an emerging age of international consensus on preventing drastic climate change by cutting fossil fuel carbon emissions blamed for global warming. The premier predicted energy transition to electricity would grow government-owned Hydro Quebec’s zero-emission power dams as a supplier of Canadian markets and exporter to New England states and New York. “It is necessary to bet on our trump cards in profoundly transforming our economy,” said Legault. Hydro Quebec will not be the only winner, he added. Hydroelectric dams “enable us to attract investment because, in future, enterprises that want to produce goods without emitting greenhouse gases are going to find in Quebec an incomparable land of opportunity,” he said. Legault’s cabinet recently rejected the proposed Energie Saguenay terminal and Gazoduq pipeline for LNG exports. Quebec also played a role in the 2017 demise of TC Energy Corp.’s C$16 billion ($12.8 billion) Energy East plan for a cross-country oil pipeline. Quebec has no oil or gas output. A 2018 ban on hydraulic fracturing used in unconventional production ruled that the Utica Shale formation, which extends into the province, was off limits. The announced exclusion would stop short of ending large-scale Quebec oil and gas refining, distribution and retailing. No interference was announced against top Quebec investor-owned enterprises. They include 525,000-customer gas distributor Énergir, Valero Energy Co. and Suncor Energy Co. refineries with capacity for 372,000 b/d of oil. Also excluded would be the , Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. parent company’s motor fuel and convenience store chain. Would-be explorer Ressources Utica, based in Quebec City, protested the announcement. Company President Mario Levesque said allowing production would “enrich Quebec and create high quality jobs while contributing to reducing the greenhouse gases associated with importing natural gas from the United States and Western Canada.” The firm had anticipated the prohibition decision by filing a lawsuit in August to seek compensation for losing supply development prospects in exploration and production authorizations granted by previous provincial administrations. The Quebec fossil fuel production prohibition would exclude oil and gas supply developers from a 594,896 square-mile jurisdiction. The region is estimated to be 2.2 times the size of Texas and 1.4% bigger than Alaska.
Keep it in the Ground: Québec declares end to fossil fuel extraction in province - Climate campaigners are welcoming Québec Premier François Legault’s Tuesday announcement that his government has decided to put an end to any further fossil fuel extraction in the province. “This is excellent news,” said Patrick Bonin, climate and energy campaigner at Greenpeace Canada, in a statement.Legault’s announcement—that the government “decided to definitively renounce the extraction of hydrocarbons on its territory”—came during the premier’s speech to a new parliamentary session in which he covered a range of topics from the healthcare system to “national cohesion” to a Covid-19 recovery plan.Calling the development “a wise decision,” Bonin added that the government “should not compensate oil and gas companies, which are largely responsible for the current climate crisis.”“Closing the door on fossil fuel extraction is a huge victory, made possible by relentless opposition from citizens to both shale gas and conventional oil and gas exploitation,” he added. “In Canada and around the world, the pressure to end the expansion of oil and gas production will only continue to grow.”Alice-Anne Simard, director general of Nature Québec, similarly said in a statement that the announcement was “thanks to the millions of people and hundreds of groups who mobilized for decades against oil and gas drilling.” “We will now work,” she added, “to ensure that this intention leads to the passage of strong legislation by the end of the parliamentary session.”“Canada and the other countries present at COP 26 should be inspired by the audacity of Québec,” he said, “and announce measures as ambitious as this one.”The province’s recent moves to reject the fossil fuel industry have already prompted legal action.According to reporting by The Globe and Mail last month, one suit was filed in August by Utica Resources, which is seeking “an unspecified amount” for lost profits. The company, according to the paper, “alleges the government acted illegally and with political motives in refusing the company’s application for an exploratory drilling license on the Galt project near the town of Gaspé.”That “legal salvo,” The Globe and Mail added, “underscores that governments around the world planning to leave their fossil-fuel resources in the ground risk battles with stakeholders as they pursue such policy shifts.”
Environmental groups applaud Quebec's ban on fossil fuel exploration - In a groundbreaking move, Quebec Premier François Legault announced the province will “definitively renounce the extraction of hydrocarbons on its territory” during a speech outlining his government's priorities in the National Assembly on Tuesday.The news comes just two weeks before the start of the COP26 UN climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland, and is being hailed by environmental activists as a bold new step toward reducing fossil fuel production.“Excellent news,” tweeted Geneviève Paul, executive director of the Centre québécois du droit de l'environnement. “We applaud the leadership of the Quebec government, and let's remember that this can be done without compensating the companies concerned.”“The Quebec government will end the extraction of oil and gas in the province,” Environmental Defence national climate program manager Dale Marshall wrote on Twitter. “Quebec has oil and gas reserves and companies have licences, so this is a big deal. What will the feds do to stop oil and gas expansion?”“Closing the door on fossil fuel extraction is a huge victory, made possible by relentless opposition from citizens to both shale gas and conventional oil and gas exploitation,” Greenpeace Canada climate campaigner Patrick Bonin said in a release. “In Canada and around the world, the pressure to end the expansion of oil and gas production will only continue to grow.”The ban on fossil fuel extraction comes after three oil and gas companies sued the Quebec government over environmental laws preventing them from drilling on previously approved leases.Fossil fuel companies in Quebec have received permits in previous years to drill for oil and gas in the province, though no new permits have been issued since Legault took office, the Globe and Mail reports. Quebec is not known for fossil fuel extraction, but has the second-largest oil-refining capacity in the country after Alberta, with refineries that handle 20 per cent of all gasoline produced in Canada.
Offshore oil and gas regulator lays charges against Cenovus Energy for 2018 spill off Newfoundland - - Canada's offshore oil and gas regulator has laid three charges against a Cenovus Energy Inc. subsidiary stemming from a huge oil spill off the coast of Newfoundland in 2018. The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board says the charges against Husky Oil Operations Inc. include allegations that the company, taken over by Cenovus earlier this year, didn't move fast enough to stop work that could cause pollution, that it resumed work without ensuring it could be done safely, and that it violated a law that prohibits any spills in the offshore area. The leak of 250,000 litres of oil, water and gas from the SeaRose production vessel is considered the largest in the province's history. The spill in the White Rose oilfield, which sits about 350 kilometres off the coast of St. John's, N.L., happened while the company was preparing to restart production during a fierce storm. A Husky report said that an initial leak happened during a 20-minute stretch while crews were troubleshooting a drop in flowline pressure, and a retest led to a second release lasting about 15 minutes. The first court appearance for the charges is scheduled for Nov. 23 at Provincial Court in St. John's, NL.
Husky Energy charged over 2018 oil spill - Calgary-based Husky Energy, part of Cenovus, is facing three charges for a 250,000-litre oil spill in the White Rose field in the Atlantic Ocean, about 350 km southeast of St. John’s in Newfoundland.The industry regulator, Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) has laid charges against Husky for allegedly not ensuring work that was likely to cause pollution ceased without delay, resuming work before ensuring it was safe to do so without pollution, and causing or permitting a spill in the offshore area.The largest oil spill in the history of Newfoundland and Labrador took place in November 2018 after a leak in a flowline to the SeaRose floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit. The incident occurred while Husky was preparing to recommence production, which had previously been suspended due to bad weather.The first appearance is scheduled for November 23, 2021, at Provincial Court in St. John’s. The C-NLOPB said it would not be commenting any further since regulatory charges have been laid.
Mexico Moves To Seize American Assets -- Under cover of darkness, according to a person familiar with the matter, Mexican National Guard troops sealed the front gates of the Monterra Energy fuel terminal in Tuxpan, Veracruz, last month. The facility was closed by order of Mexico’s energy regulator. Monterra Energy is owned by the American global investment firm KKR. Its Tuxpan terminal stores gasoline imported from refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The fuel is destined for service stations in Mexico, which are owned and operated by a variety of companies. According to the Mexican newspaper Reforma, the Tuxpan terminal is part of roughly $500 million that companies have invested in gasoline and diesel storage facilities in Mexico. This includes terminals run by IEnova, a subsidiary of San Diego-based Sempra Energy, and Indiana-based Bulkmatic. Reforma reports that both companies have had storage terminals closed recently by Mexican authorities. Monterra told me it has complied with all regulations but that the energy regulator isn’t answering its calls and the terminal remains closed.There’s trouble brewing between Mexico and the U.S., and I’m not talking about immigration. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s desire to put the state in full control of the energy industry, as it was in the 1970s, is running head-first into treaty obligations on trade and investment. The arbitrary closing of private gasoline-storage facilities is a fraction of the problem. Constitutional amendments proposed by AMLO, as the president is known, and sent to Congress for approval in a bill last month are labeled electricity reform. Yet while “reform” normally suggests improvement, this legislation, if passed, will take Mexico, and North American integration, backward.The bill modifies Articles 25, 27 and 28 of the Mexican Constitution. Article 27 would be amended to establish “that the strategic area of electricity belongs exclusively” to the state and consists “of generating, conducting, transforming, distributing and supplying electrical energy.”Private companies would still be allowed to operate under the new law, but they would have to sell to the state-owned federal electricity company, or CFE, which would set prices as a monopsony and would run a monopoly in selling to users. The CFE would be in charge of dispatching supply and guaranteed a minimum 54% of the market.
Offshore oil and gas regulator lays charges against Cenovus Energy for 2018 spill off Newfoundland - - Canada's offshore oil and gas regulator has laid three charges against a Cenovus Energy Inc. subsidiary stemming from a huge oil spill off the coast of Newfoundland in 2018. The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board says the charges against Husky Oil Operations Inc. include allegations that the company, taken over by Cenovus earlier this year, didn't move fast enough to stop work that could cause pollution, that it resumed work without ensuring it could be done safely, and that it violated a law that prohibits any spills in the offshore area. The leak of 250,000 litres of oil, water and gas from the SeaRose production vessel is considered the largest in the province's history. The spill in the White Rose oilfield, which sits about 350 kilometres off the coast of St. John's, N.L., happened while the company was preparing to restart production during a fierce storm. A Husky report said that an initial leak happened during a 20-minute stretch while crews were troubleshooting a drop in flowline pressure, and a retest led to a second release lasting about 15 minutes. The first court appearance for the charges is scheduled for Nov. 23 at Provincial Court in St. John's, NL.
Russia chooses not to raise natural gas supplies to Europe despite Putin's pledge to help - Russia has opted against sending more natural gas supplies to Europe, curbing hopes that Moscow may ease its grip on the market shortly after President Vladimir Putin said the country would be prepared to help.Highly anticipated auction results on Monday showed Russia's state gas giant Gazprom had not booked additional gas transit capacity for November either through the Ukrainian pipeline system or lines into western Europe via Poland. Gazprom booked only 30 million cubic meters per day on the Yamal-Europe route of 86.5 million cubic meters per day available for November, an amount comparable to that booked in September, and has not booked any volumes via Ukraine. The auction results are regarded as a key signal to the market of upcoming volumes because they take place two to three weeks prior to the month in which natural gas flows. Energy analysts say the results show Russia is in little hurry to boost supplies to the region and provides further evidence that the Kremlin is seeking to allow a smooth start-up of commercial flows via Nord Stream 2 — a contentious natural gas pipeline designed to deliver Russian gas directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea. It comes shortly after Putin had suggested the country could provide additional supply to Europe at a time when millions of households are facing soaring winter energy bills. Speaking to CNBC's Hadley Gamble at Russian Energy Week on Oct. 13, the Russian president also dismissed suggestions the country was using gas as a geopolitical weapon as "politically motivated blather." Offer of more gas 'conditional on Nord Stream 2' Russia is Europe's largest gas supplier, providing around 43% of the European Union's gas imports last year, according to data compiled by Eurostat. However, Russia's natural gas flows to Europe have been volatile since the end of September, adding to market anxiety and skyrocketing prices. EU lawmakers and the head of Ukraine's state energy company Naftogaz have previously accused Gazprom of deliberately withholding additional volumes of gas to Europe and deepening the region's energy crisis.
China Seeks Long-Term U.S. LNG Supply Amid Energy Crisis --Several Chinese energy giants have intensified discussions with U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters to secure long-term supply deals in light of record spot prices in Asia, rising demand, and the specter of power shortages, Reutersreported on Friday, quoting industry sources.China and many other energy importers in Asia are scrambling to procure gas and coal supplies ahead of the winter amid a global energy crunch. The higher demand after the pandemic and the muted supply response have sent China’s coal futuresand Asia’s LNG spot prices to record highs in recent days.Threatened with power outages, China is now looking to secure long-term U.S. LNG supplies, despite the tense bilateral relations and the trade spat.Long-term deals would also protect buyers from spikes in spot LNG prices, which the market is seeing these days.According to Reuters’ sources, at least five major Chinese energy firms, including China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) and Sinopec, are in advanced discussions for long-term LNG deliveries with American suppliers including Cheniere Energy and Venture Global.The talks between the Chinese and U.S. firms have intensified since the spot Asian LNG price hit $15 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in August, setting a record for that time of the year.Spot prices have more than doubled since then as Asian buyers rush to stock up on gas ahead of the winter heating season. Last week, Asian LNG prices exceeded the psychological threshold of$50/mmBtu. The $56.326/mmBtu price of the Platts benchmark Japan Korea Marker (JKM) for November was an all-time high at which a cargo of LNG traded in the Asian market. This week, the average spot price of LNG for November delivery into Northeast Asia was at around $38.50/mmBtu, industry sources told Reuters on Friday. The average price for the week was $1.50/mmBtu higher compared to last week, amid firm demand from China.
EIA projects non-OECD Asia to become the largest importers of natural gas by 2050 --In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021), we project that non-OECD countries in Asia will collectively become the largest importers of natural gas by 2050. In 2020, the countries of OECD Europe were collectively the largest importers of natural gas, followed by Japan and South Korea combined, and then non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India.All of these groups of countries import natural gas because their consumption exceeds their domestic supply. We project that continued economic growth in non-OECD Asia, led primarily by China and India, will more than double net imports of natural gas into the region by 2050. To meet the natural gas needs of these growing economies, we project that global natural gas production will increase steadily along with exports from the three largest natural gas producers: the United States, Russia, and the Middle East.In our IEO2021 Reference case, the United States, Russia, and the Middle East continue to expand natural gas production through 2050, and the United States remains the largest natural gas producer worldwide, producing almost 43 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2050 compared with 34 Tcf in 2020. The United States, Russia, and the Middle East all have large proven reserves of both natural gas and oil as well as the processing and transportation infrastructure to support production increases. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and transportation vessels create an outlet for natural gas produced in the United States and the Middle East to reach markets in Asia and Europe.We project that Russia, in particular, will show the largest growth in net exports, more than doubling over the projection period to remain the largest net exporter of natural gas by 2050, at more than 14 Tcf. Close proximity to Europe and Asia will facilitate growth in Russia’s net natural gas exports through established pipeline infrastructure, potential future pipeline additions, and liquefied natural gas exports. During the next 10 years, we project that the United States will see its most rapid period of growth; net exports of U.S. natural gas nearly double as the United States expands its LNG infrastructure and produces natural gas at high volumes.
Nigeria's Delta attempts cleanup after decades of oil spills, gas flaring - Nigeria's Delta region was once an ecological paradise, rich with unique wildlife. But years of oil production have had a devastating impact on the area, with oil spills and gas flaring wreaking havoc on local communities and the landscape. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and although it remains the country's biggest source of revenue, the biproducts of illegal oil exploration and a powerful oil industry continue to heavily impact local inhabitants. Oil spills have disfigured some of the local ecosystems and economies. Parts of the Delta region's landscape have been drenched in the ink-black slick of oil waste, which has led to the disappearance of wildlife, vegetation and fish, as well as the contamination of water bodies. Gas flares, an old and wasteful practice of burning off the natural gas associated with oil extraction, as well as the oil spills, are contributing to climate change. Both have had a highly destructive impact on the livelihoods of local communities. Fish farmer Christiana Eluozu, 68, is one of two million Nigerians living within 4km of a gas flare. She has lived in her village of Idu for over 40 years, but said for the last three years she hasn't been able to catch any fish due to the gas flare nearby. "Whenever it rains the river water becomes thick and very dark, so that when we cast our net there has been no fish these past years," Eluozo said. An area that was once populated by wildlife including elephants, antelope, leopards and buffalos, is now sparse and barren. "You can see the gas has damaged the roof of my house, everywhere is black - you can see - because of the dark rain" Eluozo said, looking up at the crater in her broken roof. In 2020, thousands of gas flares at oil production sites worldwide burned an estimated 142 billion cubic meters of gas according to the World Bank (World Bank's Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership). Remedial work Each cubic meter of associated gas flared results in about 2.5 kilograms of CO2 equivalent emissions, it is about 400 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions annually. The Nigerian government has promised to end gas flaring by 2030. A cleanup operation of the region's River State was launched by the government in 2019. Despite criticism of the operation, with reports that three years on residents still do not have access to proper drinking water, Nigeria's Environmental Ministry insists that the government is making headway.
One Bank Crunches The Numbers On Oil Supply/Demand Dynamics, Reaches A Shocking Conclusion -With oil prices surging amid a broader global energy crisis, many are hoping that this particular price spike is truly transitory as incremental supply - whether from OPEC+ or shale - kicks in and resets the market lower. But maybe not so fast: as Morgan Stanley's chief commodity strategist Martijn Rats writes, on current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand. And as prices search for the level at which demand erosion kicks in, he is increasing his Q1 2022 Brent forecast to $95/bbl, while also lifting his long-term forecast from $60 to $70/bbl.As hinted by the bold text above, the note from the Morgan Stanley commodity strategist (available to pro zero hedge subs in the usual place) focuses on arguably the two key drivers in the oil market: peak demand and peak supply. As Rats explains, while tThe planet puts boundaries on the amount of carbon that can safely be emitted - and therefore, oil consumption needs to peak - this is such a well-telegraphed prospect that it has solicited its own counter-response already:low investment (especially in conjunction with ESG pressures to curb fossil fuels). The question has therefore become: which will actually peak first? Supply? Or demand?According to MS, the second scenario would materialize if demand were to decline very sharply, say along the trajectory of the IEA’s ‘Net Zero by 2050’ study. This assumes that oil demand falls by ~29% between 2019 and 2030, driven by technological improvements, a change in end-user behaviour and other factors (recent event have shown just how much of a pipe dream this is). The sum of all oil future oil demand in this scenario amounts to ~700-900 bn barrels, roughly half the estimate of proved oil reserves in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy of 1.7 trillion barrels.As the window of opportunity to monetize these resources closes, this could incentivize the major producing countries to increase output quickly,unleashing competition for market share. As shown in the next chart, most OPEC countries have a much greater share of the world’s oil reserves than of the world’s oil production. Therefore, their the need to take market share could be especially strong.
Oil Prices Pull Back as U.S. Factory Data Intensifies Demand Concerns (Reuters) -Oil prices pulled back after touching multi-year highs on Monday, trading mixed as U.S. industrial output for September fell, tempering early enthusiasm about demand. Production at U.S. factories fell by the most in seven months in September as an ongoing global shortage of semiconductors depressed motor vehicle output, further evidence that supply constraints were hampering economic growth. “The oil market started off with a lot of exuberance, but weak data on U.S. industrial production caused people to lose confidence in demand, and China released data that intensified those worries,” Brent crude oil futures were down 62 cents or 0.7% at $82.26 a barrel by 2:30 p.m. EST (18:30 GMT) after hitting $86.04, their highest since October 2018. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were 12 cents higher, or 0.1%, at $82.40 a barrel, after hitting $83.87, their highest since October 2014. Both contracts rose by at least 3% last week. Weaker industrial data was compounded by rising production expectations on Monday, further weighing on market sentiment. U.S. production from shale basins is expected to rise in November, according to a monthly U.S. report on Monday. Oil output from the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico was expected to rise 62,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.8 million bpd next month, the Energy Information Administration said in its drilling productivity report. Total oil output from seven major shale formations was expected to rise 76,000 bpd to 8.29 million bpd in the month. The early push higher on Monday came as market participants looked to easing restrictions after the COVID-19 pandemic and a colder winter in the northern hemisphere to boost demand. “Easing restrictions around the world are likely to help the recovery in fuel consumption,” analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note, adding gas-to-oil switching for power generation alone could boost demand by as much as 450,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Cold temperatures in the northern hemisphere are also expected to worsen an oil supply deficit,
Crude Up But Paired Gains After US Industrial Weakness Reported - Rigzone - Oil paired gains on Monday as U.S. industrial production fell below expectations in September. Oil eased off of multiyear highs with U.S. industrial data showing signs of weakness while traders assessed an ongoing natural gas crisis. Futures in New York closed 0.2% higher on Monday. U.S. September industrial production fell 1.3%, below estimates. Still, a shortage of natural gas is creating extra demand for oil products like fuel oil and diesel from the power generation sector, keeping oil prices propped up. Plus, the OPEC+ alliance is still only adding incremental, monthly supplies, and some members aren’t expected to meet current output targets. “If these negative trends continue, it implies that industrial demand for energy may be weaker than expected in the future,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Both the U.S. and global benchmark crudes are trading above $80 a barrel as shortages of natural gas and coal have driven rising demand for alternative power generation and heating fuels in Asia and Europe ahead of the winter. Brent futures earlier hit the highest intraday level since 2018, while West Texas Intermediate crude neared a seven-year high. Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies once again failed to pump enough oil to meet their output targets, exacerbating the supply deficit as the world recovers from the pandemic. The group cut its production 15% deeper than planned in September, compared with 16% in August and 9% in July. This reflects the inability of some members -- including Angola, Nigeria and Azerbaijan -- to raise output to agreed volumes due to a lack of investment, exploration and other issues. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose 16 cents to settle at $82.44 a barrel in New York after earlier hitting $83.87 a barrel, the highest intraday level since October 2014. Brent for December settlement dropped 53 cents to end the session at $84.33 a barrel. Gazprom PSJC, Europe’s biggest natural gas supplier, doesn’t plan to send more gas via key transit routes through Ukraine next month, according to the results of several auctions on Monday. This comes after Russian President Vladamir Putin said that the country was ready to deliver all the natural gas Europe needed, using the energy crisis to capitalize on the country’s position as a natural gas supplier.
U.S. oil, natural-gas prices settle higher as traders weigh news on Russian natural-gas supplies -- U.S. crude-oil futures climbed on Tuesday to log another settlement at their highest in about seven years, and natural-gas prices finished higher, reclaiming the $5 level after losing nearly 8% on Monday. Russia indicated that it may not provide additional natural gas to European consumers amid an energy crunch in the region, unless it gets regulatory approval to start shipments through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. Renewed worries about natural-gas supplies likely fed expectations that the energy market would need to boost demand for oil, analysts said. It looks like Russia may not increase natural gas shipments to Europe, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. The Russians are "in no hurry whatsoever to comply" with demands from the European Union, he said. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose 52 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $82.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest finish for a front-month contract since Oct. 13, 2014, according to FactSet data. November natural gas added 10 cents, or 2%, to settle at $5.088 per million British thermal units after losing 7.8% on Monday.
Oil remains near multiyear highs as energy crunch continues - Oil futures rose on Tuesday and were near multiyear highs as an energy supply crunch continued across the globe, while falling temperatures in China revived concerns over whether the world’s biggest energy consumer can meet domestic heating needs. The Brent crude benchmark rose 75 cents to settle at $85.08 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 52 cents to settle at $82.96 a barrel. Prices have been climbing the last two months. Since the start of September, Brent has risen by about 19%, while WTI has gained around 21%. “Supply-demand balances show that the market is experiencing a supply deficit, which is spurring deep inventory draws and driving prices upwards,” said Louise Dickson, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy. “This market tightness is expected to extend into most of 2022, and crude oil demand will only catch up with crude supply by the fourth quarter of next year.” With temperatures falling as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches and heating demand increasing, prices of oil, coal and natural gas are likely to remain elevated, traders and analysts said. Colder weather already has started to grip China, with close to freezing temperatures forecast for northern areas, according to AccuWeather.com. The rising coal and natural gas prices in Asia are expected to cause some end-users to switch to lower-cost oil as an alternative. However, the power crunch that is sending prices higher is also hurting Chinese economic growth, which fell to its lowest level in a year, official data showed on Monday. China’s daily crude oil processing rate also fell last month, dropping to the lowest level since May of last year. In Brazil, state-run oil company Petrobras confirmed it will not be able to meet “atypical demand” from fuel distributors in November that has surpassed its production capacity, raising fears of supply shortages in the country.
WTI Holds Gains After 4th Straight Weekly Crude Build, Product Draws - Oil prices managed to hold on to gains today as supply concerns continued and falling temperatures in China revived concerns over whether the world's biggest energy consumer can meet domestic heating needs (and Russia suggesting that it may not provide additional natural gas to European consumers amid an energy crunch in the region didn't help the bear case across the energy complex). The global benchmark Brent closed above $85 a barrel for the first time since October 2018.“Crude price volatility is here to stay as demand uncertainty remains elevated over the short-term,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp.“There is a lot of noise in all this morning’s headlines, but given the relentless winning streak, oil prices are ripe for significant rounds of profit-taking.”U.S. crude stockpiles likely rose last week (for the 4th straight week), while distillate and gasoline stocks were expected to fall according to Reuters' survey. API
- Crude +3.294mm (+2.25mm exp)
- Cushing -2.5mm
- Gasoline -3.5mm (-2.2mm exp)
- Distillates -3.0mm (-2.4mm exp)
Crude inventories rose for the 4th straight week (slightly more than expected)...WTI traded up to just below $83 intraday but was hovering around $82.25 ahead of the print and inched higher despite the crude build as product draws dominated.
Oil Futures Down on Large Crude Build, Slowing Growth Outlook -- In pre-inventory trade Wednesday, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange shifted lower after preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a much larger-than-expected build in domestic crude oil inventories. Adding pressure is myriad economic indicators from major global economies suggesting sharply decelerating growth in the fourth quarter to rising commodity prices and shortages of labor. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased 3.294 million barrels (bbl) in the week ended Oct. 15, according to the data published by API, well above calls for an increase of 700,000 bbl. Should the build be confirmed in the U.S. Energy Information Administration report due out 10:30 a.m. ET, this would mark the fourth consecutive weekly increase in domestic crude oil inventories since mid-September. API also showed stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub fell 2.5 million bbl. API reported gasoline stockpiles declined 3.5 million bbl in the week reviewed, more than three times estimates for 1.1 million bbl draw, while distillate inventories dropped 3.0 million bbl, more than three times an expected decline of 900,000 bbl. DTN Refined Fuel data for the week ended Oct. 8 showed demand for motor gasoline in the U.S. decreased 0.1% in the reviewed week and diesel consumption declined 1.0%. EIA data for the same week showed total domestic gasoline demand down 2.7% compared to the same week in 2019 and weakening seasonally after being down 1.6% from 2019 levels in the prior week. Diesel demand was up 5.2% relative to the same week in 2019, weakening after being up 5.9% compared to 2019 levels. Near 8:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for November delivery fell $0.85 to $82.11 bbl ahead of expiration Wednesday afternoon, and next-month delivery December WTI narrowed its discount to $0.56 bbl. The December ICE Brent futures dropped below $85 bbl in overnight trade to $84.29 bbl. November RBOB futures on NYMEX fell 2.45 cents to $2.4510 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures declined 2.65 cents to $2.5342 gallon. The oil complex also came under selling pressure from the International Monetary Fund's downward revision Tuesday to Asia's global growth estimate. IMF trimmed its Asia's outlook by 1.1% this year to 6.5%, citing supply chain issues and growing tally in new COVID-19 infections.
Oil Prices Dip As China Considers Market Intervention - Oil prices dropped early on Wednesday after China said it was considering an intervention on the domestic coal market to reduce the record prices down to a “reasonable range.” As of 7:56 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, before the weekly EIA inventory report, WTI Crude prices were down 1.11% at $82.04, and Brent Crude was trading down by 0.96% to $84.26. Oil prices continued to fall from the multi-year highs reached early this past Monday, when WTI Crude hit the highest level since October 2014 at $83.73, and theinternational benchmark briefly jumped above $86 per barrel at $86.04, which was the highest price since October 2018.The key trigger of the price retreat early on Wednesday came from China, where the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said that the government wasconsidering an intervention to reduce the price of coal whose recent “increase has completely deviated from the fundamentals of supply and demand.“The heating season is approaching and the price is still showing a further irrational upward trend,” Reuters quoted the commission as saying.The possible Chinese intervention sent the key Chinese coal futures plunging early on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the most actively traded coal futures in China had hit a fresh record-high after the energy crisis worsened because of colder weather in recent days.A Chinese intervention to bring coal prices down could “reverse the fuel switch to oil,” analysts at Commerzbank told Reuters.Oil prices were also weighed down by profit-taking and a fourth straight week ofU.S. crude oil inventory builds as estimated on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API). The build last week was estimated at 3.294 million barrels, above analyst expectations of a 2.233-million-barrel build. Still, the API report was not entirely bearish for market sentiment because gasoline and distillate inventories, as well as crude stocks at the Cushing hub, were estimated to have dropped last week.
WTI Spikes Into Green After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws - Oil prices are lower this morning after API reported a bigger than expected crude build (admittedly offset by considerable draws at Cushing and in products) and China reportedly readies itself to unleash measures aimed at stabilizing its power supplies for the winter.“The heating season is approaching and the price is still showing a further irrational upward trend,” Reuters quoted the commission as saying. A Chinese intervention to bring coal prices down could “reverse the fuel switch to oil,” analysts at Commerzbank told Reuters.“Crude price volatility is here to stay as demand uncertainty remains elevated over the short-term,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp.“There is a lot of noise in all this morning’s headlines, but given the relentless winning streak, oil prices are ripe for significant rounds of profit-taking.”But all algo eyes will be on crude stocks to see if the official data confirms the big build from API. DOE
- Crude -431k (+2.25mm exp)
- Cushing -2.32mm
- Gasoline -5.368mm (-2.2mm exp)
- Distillates -3.913mm (-2.4mm exp) - biggest draw since March 2021
Despite a notable build reported by API, official data confirms a modest crude draw of 431k barrels last week with major draws at Cushing and in gasoline and distillates...
Oil prices hit seven-year high on surprise drop in U.S. stockpiles -- Oil reversed its early course to settle higher after an EIA report showed a decline in US crude inventories. Oil hit a fresh high after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected drop in crude stockpiles, allaying concerns that higher prices would blunt demand. Futures in New York rose 1.3% to a fresh seven-year high, after earlier falling as much as 1.2% on Wednesday. Domestic crude inventories fell 431,000 barrels last week, according to an Energy Information Administration report. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.29 million-barrel weekly gain on Tuesday. “This is just a sign of an economic recovery that continues and the essential nature of crude oil-related products and the role they play in this recovery,” said Rob Thummel, a portfolio manager at Tortoise, a firm that manages roughly $8 billion in energy-related assets. “The concerns about demand destruction really aren’t evident.” Oil has rallied as an energy crunch -- prompted by coal and natural gas shortages -- coincided with rebounding demand from economies recovering from the pandemic. Wall Street has been steadily upping its estimates for oil prices in recent weeks. BNP Paribas was the latest bank to do so, raising its forecast by $8 a barrel to $80.50 a barrel. The U.S. report also showed strong draws from refined-product inventories with distillate and gasoline demand rising despite higher consumer prices. Gasoline inventories fell 5.37 million barrels to the lowest since November 2019. Measured by the four-week average, gasoline demand is at the highest since 2007 for this time of year. Prices: West Texas Intermediate for November delivery, which expires Wednesday, rose 91 cents to $83.87 a barrel in New York. The more active December contract rose 98 cents to $83.42 a barrel. Brent for December settlement rose 74 cents to $85.82 a barrel. Elsewhere, China is studying ways to intervene in the coal market to reign in rising prices that are threatening energy security and economic growth. The nation’s energy watchdog hosted a Tuesday meeting with refiners after oil prices soared.
Oil dives, forecast of mild US winter spurs retreat from multi-year highs - Oil tumbled on Thursday as a forecast for a warm U.S. winter put the brakes on a rally that drove prices to a three-year high above US$86 a barrel early in the session on tight supply and a global energy crunch. Winter weather in much of the United States is expected to be warmer than average, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released Thursday morning. "The report, indicating drier and warmer conditions across the southern and eastern U.S., is putting pressure on the complex," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Brent crude fell US$1.21 to US$84.61, after reaching a session high of US$86.10, highest since October 2018. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 92 cents to US$82.50. Prices had rallied on Wednesday when the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported tighter crude and fuel inventories, with crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub falling to a three-year low. [EIA/S] "Traders who had set US$86 as their selling threshold took the opportunity to already pocket some profit," said Louise Dickson of Rystad Energy. "Oil prices took a dive as a result." The price of Brent has risen over 60per cent this year, supported by a slow ramp-up in supply by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies known collectively as OPEC+, and a global coal and gas crunch that has driven power generators to switch to oil. Oil also came under pressure from a drop in coal and natural gas prices. In China, coal fell 11per cent, extending losses this week since Beijing signalled it might intervene to cool the market. "With coal and gas prices easing and with the relative strength index technical indicators still in overbought territory, the odds of a sharp, but material fall in oil prices are rising," said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA. Still, some analysts are calling for oil to rally further as OPEC+ is likely to stick to its plan for gradual output increases while demand is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels. Rystad said the outlook was bullish for the rest of the year and Giovanni Staunovo of Swiss bank UBS said in a report he expected Brent to trade at US$90 in December and March.7:32 PM
Oil Down as Consumers Fight Back, Putin Says OPEC+ to Produce More - Crude markets settled with their biggest loss in two weeks on Thursday after Russian President Vladimir Putin said the OPEC+ cartel which includes Moscow might put out more barrels than it has announced.Oil prices were also down as China, India and other consumers fought back against high energy prices which they said could ruin their economies with runaway inflation.Adding to the pressure on energy markets were expectations that much of the United States will have a warmer-than-average winter, following a downgrade to cold conditions by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Natural gas prices fell almost 1% on the day after weekly storage levels rose slightly more than expected, another indication of warmer weather and less use for heating this fall.In Putin’s case, he surprised markets by announcing that the OPEC+ was increasing oil output “a bit more than agreed”. That was in contrast to what most in the 23-nation oil producing alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, have been saying.Officially, at its meeting in early October, OPEC+ said it will not add more than the 400,000 barrels per day increase it had committed to previously, despite a global supply squeeze that has sent prices to seven-year highs.“Not all countries are able to significantly raise oil production,” Putin said, implying that Russia might be the exception. Besides him, Iraq's Oil Minister has also said that Baghdad has the capacity to pump more.The OPEC+ arrangement, in place since 2015, has worked largely due to the cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest oil producers, aside from the United States, which has lost its number one ranking since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.The Moscow-Riyadh pact has not been without its problems, however. A disagreement between the two on production led to a brief collapse of OPEC+’s working order before the pandemic, sparking a global supply glut that sent U.S. crude prices into negative territory the first time ever.In Thursday’s session, U.S. crude’s West Texas Intermediate benchmark settled down 92 cents, or 1.1%, at $82.50 per barrel — its biggest one-day drop since Oct. 6. WTI fell to as low as $80.81 earlier. On Wednesday, it hit a high of $84.25, marking a seven-year peak.London-traded Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, settled down $1.21, or 1.4%, at $84.61. Brent hit a three-year high of $86.09 on Tuesday.
Oil climbs on tight U.S. supply even as coal, gas crunch eases - Oil prices resumed their climb on Friday on continued tightness in U.S. supply, but were headed for a flat finish on the week as coal and gas prices eased, curbing fuel-switching which had stoked demand for oil products for power.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled $1.26, or 1.5%, higher at $83.76 per barrel.Brent crude futures climbed 92 cents, or 1.09%, to settle at $85.53 per barrel, recouping some of the previous session's $1.21 slump. Brent touched a three-year high of $86.10 on Thursday but was on track to end the week unchanged.The market hit multi-year highs earlier in the week on worries about coal and gas shortages in China, India and Europe, which spurred fuel-switching to diesel and fuel oil for power."Weaker natural gas and coal prices would have taken away some of the support for the oil market," ING commodities strategists said in a note.U.S. crude was headed for a 0.5% rise for the week, holding not far off a seven-year high hit earlier in the week as investors eye low crude stocks at the major Cushing storage location in Oklahoma."There are clear concerns over the inventory drain that we are seeing at the WTI delivery hub, Cushing," ING analysts said.U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed crude stocks at Cushing fell to 31.2 million barrels, their lowest level since October 2018, despite refinery crude runs having fallen in the week to Oct. 15.Royal Bank of Canada analysts said some steam had come out of the market as investors were shifting their focus away from soaring front month crude prices. "Some investors are also trimming risk across various energies, with the rationale being that energy crisis euphoria has peaked," RBC analyst Michael Tran said in a note, adding "these are not necessarily our views."
NYMEX WTI Tops $83 on Tight Cushing Stocks, Lower Rig Count (DTN) -- Bolstered by a weakening U.S. Dollar Index, nearby delivery month West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied in market-on-close trade Friday. Both benchmarks rose 1.5% after industry data from Baker Hughes reported the first decline in the number of operating oil rigs in the United States since the week ended Sept. 10, underscoring a laggard recovery in domestic production despite elevated price levels. U.S. crude oil production remained about 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) below pre-Hurricane Ida levels in the most recent week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, with domestic operators unexpectedly reducing output once again almost two months after Ida's landfall along the Louisiana coastline. The unexpected drop in domestic production coincides with the decline in the number of oil-targeted rigs in the U.S., often seen as a proxy for future output. Baker Hughes reported domestic operators decommissioned two oil rigs during the week ended Oct. 22, bringing the total number of operating rigs to 443, well below pre-pandemic rig counts of nearly 700. Meanwhile, crude oil stored at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub, the delivery point for WTI, fell by another 2.3 million barrels (bbl) through Oct. 15 to 31.2 million bbl, the lowest since October 2018, according to EIA's latest weekly report. Given the current supply deficit, the result is likely one where U.S. crude inventories will continue to grind lower in coming weeks, supporting WTI futures. Goldman Sachs estimates the fourth quarter supply deficit on the global oil market could be as high as 4.5 million bpd or 5% of the worldwide consumption. "This is a big hole to fill even with the production increases that we have penciled in going from now to the end of this year," said Jeff Currie, head of Goldman Sachs's Commodity Research and Global Investment Research Division. "Maybe we can get that deficit whittled down to 2 million bpd, but we will be at a critical operating level of inventory by the year end" he added. On the session, NYMEX WTI futures for December delivery rallied $1.26 to $83.76 bbl, while the December ICE Brent futures gained $0.92 to $85.53 bbl. November RBOB futures on NYMEX gained 0.20 cents to $2.4821 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures declined 1.02 cents to $2.5389 gallon. Friday's gains in the crude complex came on the back of a softer U.S. Dollar Index that declined 0.17% against the basket of foreign currencies to finish the session at 93.595. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday during virtual press conference that he is now somewhat more concerned about higher inflation and the central bank would watch carefully for signs that households and businesses were expecting sustained price pressures to continue. "Supply-side constraints have gotten worse. The risks are clearly now to longer and more-persistent bottlenecks, and thus to higher inflation." 7:32 PM
U.S. oil futures score the longest weekly winning streak on record - Oil futures climbed on Friday, with U.S. prices tallying a record streak of weekly gains, up nine weeks in a row, on the back of easing travel restrictions, a slow recovery in U.S. crude production and expectations for higher energy demand for the holidays. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose $1.26, or 1.5%, to settle at $83.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices for the front-month contract saw a 2.6% weekly rise. That marked a ninth weekly climb in a row for the U.S. crude benchmark, the longest-ever weekly winning streak for front-month WTI contracts, based on records going back to April 1983, according to Dow Jones Market Data. December Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 92 cents, or 1.1%, at $85.53 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for a 0.9% weekly advance. WTI earlier this week closed at a seven-year high, while Brent has traded at its highest in three years. “Oil continued its three-month rally of almost 30% as COVID peaked and the U.S. opened up travel to vaccinated travelers,” “We expect oil to continue its rally as we head into November and colder weather triggers more demand for heating oil, and the holidays drive incremental gasoline demand.” They expect oil to trade in the $80-$100 range in 2022, citing “incremental demand related to international travel and incremental demand from fuel switching, as global natural-gas prices trade at the energy equivalent rate of $180 barrel,” Crude pulled back Thursday as natural-gas prices retreated following weekly U.S. data that showed a larger-than-expected climb in domestic storage of the fuel. News that China would make moves to roll back record coal prices also put some pressure on oil in early Wednesday dealings, before data showing a surprise fall in U.S. crude stockpiles lifted prices for that session. Global oil inventory levels “remain tight as demand growth remains firm but production growth lags,” said Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at IHS Markit, told MarketWatch. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries and their allies are “sticking with planned monthly increases of 400,000 [barrels per day] while U.S. production actually fell last week and has only been recovering from the pandemic at a slow pace.” Data from Baker Hughes on Friday also suggested a potential decline in oil production, with the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil posting their first weekly decline in seven weeks, down two at 443 this week. The wide price spread between the current front-month WTI December contract and the December 2022 indicates a supply shortage.
Climate policies could spark an 'even worse' energy crisis, Saudi finance minister says - Saudi Arabia's finance minister has told CNBC that an "even worse" energy crisis could be triggered if the world is not careful with its climate policies. "If we are not careful about what we are doing to achieve our targets, we may end up having [a] very serious energy crisis like what we are seeing now, and it could be even worse in the future," said Mohammed al-Jadaan, though he noted that climate policies are "very important." Gas prices across Europe and elsewhere have surged because of a number of factors including increased demand, low inventories and a lack of wind power generation. Speaking to CNBC's Hadley Gamble Wednesday in an exclusive interview, Finance Minister al-Jadaan called for balance, saying he would like to see developments in new technologies for capturing, reusing and recycling carbon alongside investment in renewable energy sources. "I think we will be a lot safer in both climate change and energy security" if the right balance is struck, said al-Jadaan. It comes as Saudi Arabia attempts to diversify its economy away from reliance on hydrocarbons, although the majority of its revenues still come from oil. Brent and U.S. crude benchmarks have both risen more than 65% this year, and are hovering around multi-year highs. Al-Jadaan said the kingdom doesn't want oil prices too high or low. "I don't want a price that is too low, which then will cripple investments and cause a serious energy crisis," he said. He added that "unintended consequences" of policies focusing on renewables in places like Europe had helped cause gas prices to soar. A "balanced" oil price is one that is good for producers and allows them to continue investing in supply, but does not derail the world's recovery from a "very devastating Covid-19 crisis," he said.
How Much Oil Can OPEC Realistically Add? –** Two weeks ago, in a short and terse affair that did nothing to address the spill-over from overheating gas markets, OPEC+ confirmed that it would stick to its July agreement to boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month until at least April 2022 to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts.The group agreed in July to boost output by 400,000 bpd a month until at least April 2022 to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts–already much lower compared to the huge curbs that were in place during the worst of the pandemic.The organization has lately come under pressure to ramp up production at a faster clip from several quarters, including the Biden administration so as to ease supply shortages and rein in spiraling oil prices. OPEC+ is scared of spoiling the oil price party by making any sudden or big moves with last year's oil price collapse still fresh on its mind.But maybe we have been overestimating how much power the cartel has to jack up production on the fly.According to a recent report, at the moment, just a handful of OPEC members are capable of meeting higher production quotas compared to their current clips.Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects has told Reuters that only Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Azerbaijan are in a position to boost their production to meet set OPEC quotas, while the other eight members are likely to struggle due to sharp declines in production and years of underinvestment.According to the report, Africa's oil giants Nigeria and Angola are the hardest hit, with the pair having pumped an average of 276kbpd below their quotas for more than a year now.The two nations have a combined OPEC quota of 2.83 million bpd according to Refinitiv data, but Nigeria has failed to meet its quota since July last year and Angola since September 2020. In Nigeria, five onshore export terminals run by oil majors with an average production clip of 900,000 bpd handled 20% less oil in July than the same time last year despite relaxed quotas. The declines are due to lower production from all the onshore fields that feed the five terminals.Indeed, it could take at least two quarters before most companies can work through their maintenance backlogs which covers everything from servicing wells to replacing valves, pumps, and pipeline sections. Many companies have also fallen behind on plans to do supplementary drilling to keep production stable.
Israel Approves $1.5 Billion Budget For Potential Attack On Iran -- According to a report from Israel’s Channel 12, the Israeli government approved a $1.5 billion budget to prepare for a potential attack on Iran.The extra funds would be used to purchase additional aircraft, surveillance drones, and the munitions needed to strike Iran’s underground nuclear facilities. The report said about $620 million would come from the 2022 military budget, and the rest of the funds would come from this year’s budget.For years, Israel has been seeking bunker-busting bombs that could penetrate Iran’s underground facilities. If they did acquire the munitions, Israel would also need bombers capable of carrying them, something it currently doesn’t have.The US tested a new 5,000-pound bunker buster earlier this month, which Israeli media interpreted as a possible message to Iran.In July, it was reported that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) requested additional funds for next year’s budget to prepare for operations against Iran. Throughout the year, IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi has repeatedly said the IDF is"accelerating" plans to strike Iran, and Israeli politicians have constantly been threatening the Islamic Republic.Israel frequently carries out covert attacks against Iran’s civilian nuclear program, but the IDF planning suggests an overt operation could happen in the future. The US has joined Israel in issuing threats against Iran.Last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted at military action against Iran alongside Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. Blinken said if diplomacy with Iran fails, the US will turn to "other options."Lapid made clear that one of Blinken’s "options" was military action. "I would like to start by repeating what the Secretary of State just said. Yes, other options are going to be on the table if diplomacy fails. And by saying other options, I think everybody understands here … what is it that we mean," Lapid said.
US Base In Eastern Syria Comes Under Rare Drone & Ground Attack - Late into the evening local time on Wednesday, a remote American military outpost in eastern Syria came under attack by unknown militants. So far the Pentagon is indicating that there are no American casualties or injuries during what appears to have been a sophisticated assault, given the presence of foreign drones overhead along with reported ground fire.It happened at the al-Tanf base in Syria's far eastern desert along the Iraqi border, which has had a significant US presence since at least 2016. Tanf is the furthermost southerly US garrison in that region, given that most American forward operating bases are in Syria's northeast. The Associated Press has cited a US defense official who gave the following sparse details:The official said the attack appeared to include at least one drone strike and possibly groundfire. It was not yet clear who carried out the attack.US and coalition troops are based at the al-Tanf garrison to train local Syrian opposition forces on patrols to counter Islamic State militants.Additionally, "The official said there was no information on whether local forces were injured or killed in the attack." Reports suggest the UAV may have been a suicide drone.
Syria secretly stole $100 million from UN donations by manipulating currency exchange rates, report says - The Syrian government has diverted $100 million worth of UN aid donations by manipulating the value of its currency, according to a new analysis.President Bashar al-Assad's oppressive regime has been subject to harsh sanctions for years, meaning the government can't generate revenue through trade with the likes of the US, UK, and EU. Millions of dollars in Syrian government assets have been frozen in banks located in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East. As a result, the Syrian central bank has turned to illicit means to generate capital, researchers from the Center for Strategic and International Studies said as part of a study conducted with the Operations & Policy Center and the Center for Operational Analysis and Research.The UN funnels millions in aid to Syria each year for poverty relief, but according to an analysis of 779 public UN contracts, Syria has since 2019 made the UN use the central bank's official exchange rate of between 2,500 and 1,500 Syrian pounds to one US dollar, CSIS said.The unofficial — and less lucrative — rate, used by traders and on the black market, is 3,500 Syrian pounds to the dollar.This means that 50% of foreign aid sent to Syria by the UN in 2020 was lost to the government, the researchers said.According to the report, the Syrian government has made a total of $100 million from this scheme since 2019. The bodies targeted by the Syrian regime included the UN's office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs, the World Food Programme, the UN Development Programme, and UNICEF, according to to the Guardian.
Afghanistan's economy could shrink by 30% following Taliban takeover, IMF says - Afghanistan's gross domestic product could see a contraction of up to 30% following the Taliban takeover, the IMF said in its latest regional economic report. Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, said the country's situation was deteriorating, even before Kabul fell. "They were facing more than one shock — drought, Covid," he told CNBC's Hadley Gamble. "Therefore, what we foresee and fear is a sharp contraction." The report also noted that non-humanitarian aid has been halted, foreign assets mostly frozen and Afghan banks have been crippled by cash shortages after the Taliban returned to power. "These shocks could cause a 20–30 percent output contraction, with falling imports, a depreciating Afghani, and accelerating inflation," the report said. "The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis." Additionally, "the turmoil is fueling a surge in Afghan refugees" that could burden public resources in refugee-hosting countries, pressure the labor market and create social tensions, the IMF said, highlighting the need for assistance from the international community. The G-20 last week pledged to help tackle the crisis in Afghanistan. Azour said the IMF welcomes the international community's scaled-up humanitarian aid, and said there should be a focus on education and health services. The International Monetary Fund also incrementally raised its outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region. It expects real GDP to grow 4.1% in 2021 and 2022, up 0.1 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points respectively from its April projection. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, real GDP is expected to grow 4.3% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022. But the recoveries remain "divergent" and will be shaped by several factors including Covid-19 vaccination rates and high oil prices, the IMF predicts.
Taliban beheaded Afghanistan volleyball player: coach - An Afghan volleyball player on the girls’ national team was beheaded by the Taliban — with gruesome photos of her severed head posted on social media, according to her coach. Mahjabin Hakimi, one of the best players in the Kabul Municipality Volleyball Club, was slaughtered in the capital city of Kabul as troops searched for female sports players, her coach told the Persian Independent. She was killed earlier this month, but her death remained mostly hidden because her family had been threatened not to talk, claimed the coach, using a pseudonym, Suraya Afzali, due to safety fears. Images of Hakimi’s severed neck were published on Afghan social media, according to the paper, which did not say how old she was. Mahjabin Hakimi was slaughtered in capital Kabul as Taliban troops searched for female sports players. Conflicting reports online suggested that happened earlier, with an apparent death certificate suggesting she was killed Aug. 13 — the final days of the Taliban’s insurgency before seizing Kabul. However, the Payk Investigative Journalism Center said its sources also confirmed that Hakimi “was ‘beheaded’ by the Taliban in Kabul.” The governing group has yet to comment, Payk Media said. Afzali told the Persian Independent that she was speaking out to highlight the risk that female sports players face, with only two of the women’s national volleyball team having managed to flee the country. “All the players of the volleyball team and the rest of the women athletes are in a bad situation and in despair and fear,” she told the paper. “Everyone has been forced to flee and live in unknown places.” One of the players who escaped, Zahra Fayazi, told the BBC last month that at least one of the players had been killed. “We don’t want this to repeat for our other players,” she told the broadcaster from her new home in the UK. “Many of our players who are from provinces were threatened many times by their relatives who are Taliban and Taliban followers.
China Home Prices Drop For The First Time Since 2015 As Existing Home Sales Crash 63% - Two weeks after we reported that China's property market just suffered "catastrophic" property sales in September which invoked Goldman's "hard landing" scenario and which saw total sales of 759.6b yuan plunge 36.2% from September 2020 (and 17.7% lower from the same period in 2019), deepening a downward spiral that started in July with transaction volume of residential properties in Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou declining 30% y/y, while Shanghai fell 45%, the freeze in China's property market is starting to manifest in prices for what Goldman has dubbed the world's largest asset class.Overnight, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s home prices fell for the first time in six years as the property slump deepens in the world’s second-largest economy. New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, slid 0.08% in September from August, the first drop since April 2015. Values in the secondary market declined 0.19%, down for a second month.Some more details from Goldman: Average housing prices in the primary market edged down 0.5% mom annualized in September, the first sequential decline since April 2015. Property prices in tier 1 cities rose 1.3% mom annualized in September after seasonal adjustments, moderating from 3.2% in August. Price appreciation in tier 2 cities also slowed to 1.9% mom annualized in September from 5.8% in August. Property prices in tier 3 cities fell further by 1.5% mom annualized in September following a decline of 1.0% in August and prices in tier 4 cities dropped 7.5% mom annualized in September (vs. -2.3% in August).
China drafts law to punish parents for children's bad behavior --Parents in China whose young children exhibit "very bad behavior" or commit crimes could face punishment under proposed new legislation.In the draft of the family education promotion law, guardians will be reprimanded and ordered to go through family education guidance programs if prosecutors find very bad or criminal behavior in children under their care."There are many reasons for adolescents to misbehave, and the lack of or inappropriate family education is the major cause," said Zang Tiewei, spokesman of the Legislative Affairs Commission under the National People's Congress (NPC), China's rubber-stamp parliament.The draft family education promotion law, which will be reviewed at the NPC Standing Committee session this week, also urges parents to arrange time for their children to rest, play, and exercise.Beijing has exercised a more assertive paternal hand this year, from tackling the addiction of youngsters to online games -- deemed a form of "spiritual opium" -- toclamping down on "blind" worship of internet celebrities. In recent months, the Education Ministry has limited gaming hours for minors, allowing them to play online games for one hour on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday only.
DC Comics Superheroes Fight Injustice in Indian Occupied Kashmir -- DC Comics latest movie release "Injustice" is inspired by a video game titled "Injustice: God Among Us". It shows superheroes destroying military equipment in Indian Occupied Kashmir with the narrator describing a government which has “waged war against its own people.”In the DC Comics film, Superman is determined to avenge the villain Joker’s grave crimes, which include killing Superman’s partner Lois Lane and their unborn child. The Justice League, including Batman and Wonder Woman among other superheroes, try to get Superman to restrain himself. Depiction of Kashmir as “disputed” and the fictional superheroes’ destroying military equipment have drawn a strong angry reaction in India, with Indians on social media venting against the United States: “America is literally always butting its nose in another’s nations business”. “So now comic writers write politics of world that they don’t know? I think not, this is a well planned deliberate attempt to showcase supremacy subtly to the young consumers who have no idea. It’s a no brainer who are behind such activities”
Putin orders Russians to stop work for a week amid record Covid daily deaths - Russians have been told to take a paid week off work in order to try to combat the Covid-19 crisis in the country, as the number of daily deaths from the virus hit its highest level since the start of the pandemic. On Wednesday, the Kremlin announced that, "in order to prevent further spread of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) and to protect public health, the President has announced that October 30 to November 7, 2021, inclusive, will be paid non-working days." The Kremlin said it recommended that the measure be implemented across Russia. To date, the country's separate regions have largely been in control of designating their own Covid rules and restrictions throughout the public health crisis. At a meeting with the government Wednesday, Putin told officials, "We know that, unfortunately, this problem is also escalating, and that it is impossible to overlook it." He announced he supports the proposal for a week of paid, nonworking days from Oct. 30, and for this to start earlier in regions particularly badly affected by Covid cases. The move comes as Russia, which has been one of the hardest-hit countries by Covid, battles a rising death toll. On Thursday, it reported a record high 36,339 new infections and 1,036 fatalities. To date, there have been 227,389 Covid deaths in Russia and it has recorded more than 8.1 million infections. Russia's daily cases and death toll have been creeping up for weeks now, largely because a significant proportion of the population remains unvaccinated. Covid vaccines are proven to greatly reduce the risk of severe infection, hospitalization and death. On Wednesday, Putin once again implored Russian citizens to take up the vaccines, stating that: "we are seeing the dangerous consequences of the low vaccination levels in our country. I repeat once again: vaccination really reduces the risks of severe illness or serious complications after, and the threat of death … I also once again urge all citizens to get vaccinated. This is about protecting yourself, about your safety, even your life, your relatives' health." There are also concerns about waning immunity in those who are fully vaccinated, as clinical data shows immunity provided by Covid vaccines wanes after around six months. Another worry is the discovery of a mutation of the delta variant — currently the dominant strain worldwide — that is being identified in increasing numbers in the U.K., which is also seeing a dramatic spike in cases. Although the mutation has been found in Russia, it's too early to tell if it is having an impact on rising infection numbers. Russia's deputy prime minister, Tatyana Golikova, presented the country's epidemiological situation to Putin and the government on Wednesday, noting that it "is becoming more complicated."
Moscow to shut shops, schools as COVID-19 deaths soar - Authorities in Moscow on Thursday announced plans to shut restaurants, cinemas and non-food stores and introduce other restrictions later this month, as Russia registered the highest daily numbers of new coronavirus infections and deaths since the start of the pandemic. The government coronavirus task force reported 36,339 new confirmed infections and 1,036 deaths in the past 24 hours. That brought Russia’s death toll to 227,389, by far the highest in Europe. President Vladimir Putin has voiced consternation about vaccine hesitancy and sought to urge more to come forward for jabs. Putin on Wednesday responded to rising contagion and deaths by ordering Russians to stay off work from Oct. 30 to Nov. 7, and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin followed up Thursday by introducing a slew of restrictions in the capital. All non-food stores, gyms, cinemas and other entertainment venues in the Russian capital will be shut from Oct. 28 to Nov. 7. Restaurants and cafes will only be allowed to deliver takeaway orders, and schools and kindergartens will also be closed during that period. Access to museums, theaters, concert halls and other venues will be limited to holders of digital codes proving vaccination or past illness, a practice that will also remain in place after Nov. 7 per the Cabinet’s advice. Most state organizations and private businesses except for those operating key infrastructure and a few others will halt work in the 11-day period, the mayor added. Earlier this week, Sobyanin said unvaccinated people over 60 will be required to stay home except for brief walks and open-air exercise. He also told businesses to keep at least a third of their employees working remotely for three months starting Oct. 25. “The situation in Moscow is developing according to the worst-case scenario,” Sobyanin wrote on his blog, adding that the number of infections in the capital is nearing all-time highs.
Gas crisis, labor shortages and supply chain chaos: Post-Brexit Britain faces a difficult winter The U.K. has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic to find itself faced with an onslaught of new economic crises that have left the country in "a precarious position," experts have warned. A perfect storm of labor shortages, skyrocketing natural gas prices and global supply chain constraints have put the country in prime position for a difficult winter. Rising demand as economies reopen has created similar problems all over the world, but economists argue that Brexit has exacerbated these issues for Britain. A lack of workers is affecting a slew of industries across the country. Britain has an estimated shortage of 100,000 truck drivers, which haulage organizations have largely attributed to a post-Brexit exodus of EU nationals. The lack of truck drivers has disrupted deliveries, leading to empty store shelves, backlogs at ports and dry gas stations, which sparked a panic buying frenzy in September that lasted weeks. Other sectors have also warned of deepening labor shortages that are expected to damage the availability and price of goods in the runup to Christmas. Britain's National Pig Association has warned that up to 120,000 pigs face being culled within weeks because of a lack of butchers and abattoir workers. In a statement on Friday, the vice president of the U.K.'s National Union of Farmers said labor shortages across the food supply chain remained acute, while the CEO of the U.K. Warehousing Association said in September that industries including warehousing, engineering and transport were all experiencing severe worker shortages. At the end of September, the Confederation of British Industry — which represents 190,000 businesses — said its latest data showed 70% of companies were planning pay rises in a bid to tackle labor shortages. The U.K. government has issued thousands of temporary visas for truck drivers, butchers and agricultural workers, but some critics have argued that this is insufficient to lure foreign workers. Risk to future growth Riccardo Crescenzi, a professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics, expressed some skepticism about the solutions being offered by the government. "Offering three-month [visas] might not work while the rest of the EU is booming because of the injection of resources allowed for its recovery plan," he told CNBC in a phone call. "And there is not really an unemployment problem in the U.K., so I struggle to see where drivers would come from in the domestic economy." Crescenzi said it was hard to know if the issues were temporary. "Some of these shortages could become structural, and this is a problem that can seriously constrain future growth."
UK Goes Full-On Big Brother, Employs Facial Recognition Technology to Expedite School Lunch Queues - As the Financial Times reported, nine schools in the Scottish region of North Ayrshire have started using facial recognition systems as a form of contactless payment in cashless canteens (cafeterias in the US). The BBC later reported that two schools in England were also piloting the system. At a time when many schools in the UK are facing crippling budget cuts, this speaks volumes about the local councils’ educational priorities. In response to the revelations, the Information Commissioner’s Office issued a weak-tea statement, encouraging schools to “carefully consider the necessity and proportionality of collecting biometric data before they do so.”A statement from children’s digital rights group Defend Digital Me packed a meatier punch: “Biometrics should never be used for children in educational settings — no ifs, no buts. It’s not necessary. Just ban it.”In its defence, North Ayrshire council said it had sent out a flyer explaining the technology to the children’s parents ahead of the enrollment. That flyer included this lovely little nugget: “With Facial Recognition, pupils simply select their meal, look at the camera and go, making for a faster lunch service whilst removing any contact at the point of sale.”Apparently a whopping 97% of the school children or their parents consented to be enrolled in the pilot scheme. It seems that the council believes that preteens and teenagers are adequately equipped to decide for themselves whether or not the installation of facial recognition technologies in the school canteen infringes their privacy. Similar facial recognition systems have been in use in the United States for years, though usually as a security measure. In the case of the schools in Ayrshire, this is all about ease, speed and efficiency. Or so we are told.
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