week ending Oct 30

Markets could be challenged in the week ahead as the Fed prepares to reverse easy policy-The Federal Reserve is expected to take its first major step away from the easy policy it put in place to fight the pandemic, a milestone on the road back toward normal.The Fed's two-day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday is the big event for markets in the week ahead. The central bank is widely expected to announce that it will begin to unwind its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases and end the program entirely by the middle of next year.Economic data will also be important, with the October jobs report on Friday. There are dozens of earnings expected, including pharmaceuticals like Pfizerand Moderna, as well as a host of travel, energy, insurance, and tech companies.The Bank of England also meets Thursday, and it is expected to raise interest rates. The move comes after rate hikes by South Korea, Norway and others."The Fed is part of a global move to remove accommodation, and the market drives right past that," Bleakley Advisory Group CIO Peter Boockvar said. "In a way, the stock market is playing a game of chicken, with this inflation move and interest rates and the response from central banks."Inflation has been running at a 30-year high. Core PCE inflation — which is the Fed's preferred gauge —jumped 3.6% in September on a year-over-year basis, the same as in August.

Narrowing Yield Gap in Treasurys Signals Worries Over Fed, Growth – WSJ - The gap between yields on shorter- and longer-term Treasurys narrowed at month’s end, reflecting the tension between investors’ expectations that interest rates will climb and their concerns about the prospects for longer-term growth.Yields on longer-term Treasurys, which tend to fall when investors expect cooling economic growth, have retreated since approaching their 2021 highs earlier in October. The slide came after new data showed tepid growth and lingering inflationary pressures, intensifying some investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve will hasten interest-rate increases, slowing the economy.Yields on shorter-term Treasurys, meanwhile, have continued to rise. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tends to climb when investors expect rates to rise, settled at new yearly highs throughout the past week. It finished Friday’s session at 0.491%.“The market is trying to figure out what the long-term outlook is here for both Fed policy and inflation,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab. “Those two things are getting investors rather muddled.”Short-term government bond yields across the world have climbed in recent weeks after governments and central banks signaled tighter monetary policy. The Bank of Canada brought an end to its broad-based emergency-income benefits for households and businesses earlier this month, while the Bank of England has signaled that it is increasingly likely to raise interest rates in the near future, making it among the most hawkish of major developed market central banks.The U.S. central bank is set to begin winding down its $120 billion-a-month bond-purchase program in November, sooner than some investors had anticipated. Analysts expect officials won’t raise rates before finishing that process.Fed officials have said that much of the recent pickup in inflation is temporary and expect it to moderate in the years ahead. Investors and analysts also generally expect inflation to cool as businesses increase the supply of goods to meet consumer demand and supply-chain pressures ease from a return to more-normal spending patterns.

 UST Yield Curve Tumbles To 18-Month Lows Amid Policy Error Panic --“In stark contrast with the mindset of corporate leaders who are dealing daily with the reality of higher and persistent inflationary pressures, the transitory concept has managed to retain an almost mystical hold on the thinking of many policy makers,” El-Erian wrote in an Oct. 25 op-ed in Bloomberg. “The longer this persists, the greater the risk of a historic policy error whose negative implications could last for years and extend well beyond the U.S.,” he argued.It would appear from the accelerating flattening of the yield curve, that the market is believing El-Erian's narrative.Expectations for rate-hikes are being pulled forward by the market... Pushing 2Y Yields above 50bps for the first time since March 2020...And as rate-hikes are increasingly priced in, the long-end of the curve is tumbling...Crushing the yield curve to its flattest in 18 months...We give the last word to El-Erian, who said he fears that Fed officials will double down on the transitory narrative rather than cast it aside, raising the probability of the central bank “having to slam on the monetary policy brakes down the road—the ‘handbrake turn.'”“A delayed and partial response initially, followed by big catch-up tightening—would constitute the biggest monetary policy mistake in more than 40 years,” El-Erian argued, adding that it would “unnecessarily undermine America’s economic and financial well-being” while also sending “avoidable waves of instability throughout the global economy.”His warning comes as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - the Fed’s policy-setting body - will hold its next two-day meeting on November 2 and 3.

Bond Market Dares Fed to Defy It After Bloody Week for Investors - Bloomberg

• Short-rates surge globally as central banks reset expectations
• Growing wagers that Fed will move up first rate hike to June

Bond traders are looking to the Federal Reserve to support the hawkish shift that just drove parts of the global bond market to one of its wildest weeks in decades.  In a span of a few days, the view that some major central banks will be slow to raise rates shattered into pieces. Short-term yields from Canada to Australia jumped the most since the 1990s, catching even some of the best money managers flat footed, as policy makers shifted gears to move more firmly against inflation once seen as likely to be transitory. At the same time, long-term rates slid -- a signal that aggressive policy moves are likely to slow the pace of economic growth. The capitulation of some central banks has emboldened U.S. traders, who are betting the Fed will start backing away from its mantra that the acceleration in consumer-price gains would be a short-lived side effect of the Covid pandemic. And as traders shift their attention away from officials in Ottawa and Sydney and more acutely back toward those in Washington DC, they’re now pricing in an almost 90% of chance that the Fed will make its first quarter-point hike in June. “The markets are certainly testing the limits of central banks,” Wells Fargo Asset Management’s George Bory said on Bloomberg Television.

Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Measure Hits Another 30-Year High as Reckless Money-Printing Continues by Wolf Richter --While the Fed is still printing $120 billion a month and repressing short-term rates to near 0% in the most monstrously overstimulated economy. The lowest lowball inflation measure that the US government releases, the PCE price index without food and energy rose by 3.64% in September, compared to a year ago, the hottest inflation reading since May 1991.This “core PCE” is the inflation measure that the Fed uses for its official inflation target of a “symmetrical” 2%. The reason it uses this measure is because it is the lowest lowball inflation measure the government publishes, and it understates actual inflation even more than other indices the government publishes. For example, CPI-U inflation in September was 5.4%and CPI-W was 5.9%, which themselves understate actual inflation.Food and energy, precisely what regular people spend a lot of their money on, are excluded from the Fed’s inflation measure because prices of food and energy jump up and down a lot and create even more volatility in the inflation index.But the regular headline PCE price index – we’ll get to it in a moment – has been running higher over the years than core PCE. Since 2012, when both index values were set to 100, the headline PCE index increased 1.5% faster than core PCE index.The close-up of core PCE, covering the past 10 years, shows a little more closely what is happening on a year-over-year basis. On a month-to-month basis, the core PCE index rose 0.21%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. Month-to-month readings are volatile. But when they’re bunched together in a long-term view, the dynamics emerge. Note the volatility in the 1970s, as inflation was rising, leading to year-over-year core PCE to exceed 10% in early 1975 and 9% in 1980. In between there were years paved with false hopes that this thing would go away on its own, but it didn’t, and interest rates were far higher already, and the Fed wasn’t doing QE: The headline PCE price index, including food and energy, jumped by 0.32% for the month, and by 4.38% from a year ago, the hottest PCE inflation since January 1991:This inflation surge is happening while the Fed is still recklessly printing $120 billion a month, having amassed $8.6 trillion in assets, nearly half of it – $4.2 trillion – in the past 20 months to repress long-term interest rates and inflate asset prices. And it’s still repressing short-term interest rates to near-zero. With these policies, the Fed is energetically throwing enormous amounts of fuel into the world for further inflation

PCE Price Index: September Headline at 4.4% YoY - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for September was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.32% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 4.38% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 3.64%, above the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017, 2019, and 2020. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit: "The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate.'The index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted. For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.

The Bright Side of Higher Inflation - Stephanie Kelton - Yes, global supply chains are a mess. Yes, consumers are frustrated, paying through the nose for new and used vehicles, petrol, housing, and even blue paint. Yes, people are worried about getting ahold of the latest iPhone, a pair of Nike or Adidastennis shoes, a Microsoft XBox Series X, or any number of popular toys in time for the holidays. And, yes, employers are complaining too, desperate to hire preschool teachers, construction workers, truck drivers, hotel and restaurant workers, and evendog walkers. But there’s a bright side to the frustration and the pain associated with higher inflation. Almost exactly 10 years ago, headlines were screaming, “Double-dip Recession!”CNN, The Economist, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and just about every other major news outlet cautioned that the fragile economic recovery from from the Great Recession was faltering. Larry Summers joined a chorus of voices, warning of a “1-in-3 chance” that the U.S. was entering a double-dip recession. (Yes, it’s a familiar prediction). Others put the odds closer to 50-50. The smell of contraction was in the air.While the US was technically in its second year of an economic recovery, the unemployment rate appeared stuck at around 9 percent going into the fall of 2011. Job growth had slowed to the point that it was barely keeping pace with population growth. The boost that came from the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (which had been far too small to begin with) was fading fast, and there was little appetite for another round of fiscal support among lawmakers, as concerns over rising debt levels and the fiscal deficit took hold. It was basically one-and-done on the fiscal side, and then everything fell to poor Ben Bernanke, who tried to explain to Congress why the Fed wasn’t capable of restoring the labor market to full health. Testifying before Congress on June 7, 2012, Bernanke put it bluntly:“Monetary policy is not a panacea. It is not the ideal tool.”What was needed, he explained, was more robust support in the form of fiscal policy:"I would feel much more comfortable if Congress would take some of this burden from us and address these issues.”He didn’t get the help he was seeking. In fact, what got was exactly the opposite.

Senate Democrats propose penalties for Federal Reserve officials who don't follow ethics code --Senate Democrats unveiled legislation that would impose penalties on senior officials at the Federal Reserve who trade individual stocks as the central bank faces immense scrutiny over a recent scandal involving stock trades made by senior staff. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), chair of the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committees, joined Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in introducing the bill on Wednesday.Under the proposed legislation, the government would put into law ethics rules recently announced by the central bank that bar top Federal Reserve officials from trading individual stocks. Officials would still be able to invest in diversified mutual funds, investment trusts, and U.S. treasuries, however.The legislation also seeks to require presidents, vice presidents, and directors at the regional Fed banks to make the same public annual and periodic financial disclosures as Fed governors, a summary of the bill released the senators said.The bill states that those who violate those requirements would be subject to civil penalties of at least 10 percent of the value of the investment that was purchased or sold.The legislation comes after the central bank has weathered a wave of criticism in recent weeks after reports emerged of stock trades made by leaders at the Fed's banks in Dallas and Boston last year.At the time, a report from The Wall Street Journal found that Dallas President Robert Kaplan had traded stocks in a number of companies, including Apple Inc., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Amazon.com Inc. Some of his trades reportedly reached well into the seven-figure range. The report also detailed multiple real estate investments made by Boston President Eric Rosengren. Though both said then that their actions complied with ethics rules, theylater announced retirement last month after vowing to divest their assets to avoid the appearance of any conflict of interest.

Powell Calls Sen. Brown to talk Fed ethics, trading curbs -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called Sherrod Brown, the head of the Senate panel that oversees the central bank, this week to discuss Powell’s sweeping proposal to limit securities trading by senior Fed officials, as well as Brown’s new legislation on the subject. “He called me to just give me an update on what they’re doing, what I’m doing on the ethics thing,” Brown, an Ohio Democrat, said in a brief interview Thursday. “I like what he’s been saying, I like what we’re doing, and I think it needs to be codified.” Jerome Powell.Aaron P. Bernstein/Bloomberg Brown announced his own legislation on Wednesday to crack down on securities trading by senior government officials. He said the call didn’t change his view on whether Powell should get appointed to a second term as fed chief — something he hasn’t publicly revealed.

Yellen defends Powell’s regulatory record despite past doubts -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s record on regulating the financial system amid attacks by progressives seeking to deny him a second term — even though in the past she’s expressed some misgivings about rulemaking under his watch. While declining to say how she’s advised President Biden on his decision over whether to reappoint Powell, Yellen told CNN’s “State of the Union” that financial rules had “markedly strengthened” under Powell’s term, as they did during her time at the Fed and under her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. As the pandemic added stress to the financial markets, “the core of our financial system did very well because of the improvements in capital liquidity, risk management, stress testing,” Yellen said. “And those improvements have stayed in place during the Powell regime.”

 Plunge In Export Shipments Sparks US GDP Downgrades, Economy On Verge Of Contraction -US economic data took a double hit this morning with a contraction in durable goods orders and perhaps even more notably, the US merchandise-trade deficit widened to a fresh record in September as exports retreated for the first time in seven months.The goods trade deficit increased by $8.1bn in September (mom sa), much more than expected, to $96.3 billion. It appears the container ship crisis is starting to blowback into the economy as the value of imports rose 0.5% to $238.4 billion, spurred by a 3.6% increase in the value of capital-goods shipments, while exports fell 4.7% from a record high in August to $142.2 billion, driven by a 9.9% decline in the value of outward shipments of industrial supplies and a 3.6% drop in capital goods.This prompted Goldman Sachs to reduce their Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.5pp to 2.75% (qoq ar) ahead of tomorrow's advance release.But, at a time when the Wall Street banks are scratching their heads for credible explanations why they are keeping (or raising) their year-end S&P targets at a time when economic growth is in freefall and inflation is soaring (read: stagflation), an unexpected source of honesty has emerged - the Atlanta Fed, which now sees the US on the verge of contraction.In its latest GDPNow forecast published moments ago, the Atlanta Fed slashed its estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 to just 0.2%, down from 1.2% on October 15, from 6% about two months ago, and down from 14% back in May.

BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.0% Annualized Rate in Q3 -From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent. ...The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.The advance Q3 GDP report, with 2.0% annualized growth, was below expectations.

U.S. GDP Growth Slows to 2% in 3rd Quarter – CFO -- The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at the slowest rate since the pandemic recovery began in the spring, reflecting the impact of the delta variant and supply-chain constraints.The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product rose at a 2.0% annualized pace in the third quarter, below economists’ forecasts of a 2.8% increase. It was the smallest gain since the 31.2% pandemic-fueled plunge in the second quarter of 2020.GDP grew 6.7% in the second quarter of this year, which preceded the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus.According to MarketWatch, economists attribute the slowdown in the third quarter to fading government support for the economy, supply-chain bottlenecks, and the surge in cases of delta variant.“Overall, this is a big disappointment given that the consensus expectation at the start of the quarter in July was for a 7.0% gain and even our own bearish 3.5% forecast proved to be too optimistic,” wrote Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. But economists expect strong consumer demand and an easing pandemic to boost growth in the coming months.“The third quarter was grim but it has little to say about the fourth quarter. The October-December quarter will be very different; spending on services is already rebounding as delta subsides,” Growth in the third quarter was led by a pickup in inventories. But with supply-chain disruptions making it hard for U.S. stores and factories to get the products and parts they need, spending on goods fell 2.4% in the third quarter, led by a steep drop in sales of cars and other long-lasting manufactured goods.Spending at hotels and restaurants rose, indicating that the direct damage from the delta variant was relatively modest and has begun to fade. U.S. hotel occupancy was at 65% for the week ended Oct. 16, the highest level since mid-August.“As delta cases continue to subside, there may be more growth in the fourth quarter as consumers will be more willing to spend on services involving in-person interactions,”

U.S. Economy Slowed in Third Quarter as Delta Variant Surged - Economic growth slowed sharply over the summer, the government reported Thursday, reflecting the resurgent pandemic’s impact in keeping consumers at home and the supply-chain bottlenecks that led to empty shelves and higher prices.The outlook for the rest of the year is mixed: The pandemic’s grip is easing. The supply-chain issues, by and large, are not.Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew 0.5 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said. That was down from 1.6 percent in the second quarter and represented the weakest growth since the recovery from the pandemic began in the spring.As recently as July, economists predicted that the recovery would gain steam in the second half of the year as widespread vaccination allowed students to return to schools, workers to return to jobs and consumers to return to restaurants and hotels.“At the time, the recovery looked on track, and it looked like it was going to pick up,” recalled Ben Herzon, executive director of IHS Markit, a forecasting firm. “Based on how things were looking, it could only get better.”But that was before the spread of the Delta variant led to a new wave of coronavirus cases across much of the country, and before the full impact of global supply-chain snarls became clear. The good news for the economy is that the direct damage done by the Delta variant was relatively modest and has begun to fade. Spending at hotels and restaurants rose in the third quarter, although more slowly than earlier in the year. More recent data from OpenTable, the restaurant-reservation app, and the Transportation Security Administration suggest that dining and air travel have begun to rebound as virus cases have fallen.The bigger factor in the summer slowdown was the supply-chain issues that have made it hard for U.S. stores and factories to get the products and parts they need. Spending on goods fell 2.4 percent in the third quarter, adjusted for inflation, led by a steep drop in sales of cars and other long-lasting manufactured goods.Economists always expected goods spending to fall somewhat as the effect of government aid checks sent out earlier this year waned and as pandemic-driven shifts in spending patterns began to return to normal. But they said the big drop in the third quarter almost certainly reflected supply-chain problems. Falling auto sales — a result of a global microchip shortage that has crimped car production — accounted for about 90 percent of the overall decline in goods spending.Automakers said this week that they expected the chip shortage to improve gradually. But there is little sign that broader supply chain problems will disappear anytime soon.“In some places, things may be getting worse before they get better, in some areas they may be stabilizing before they get better,” said Robert Rosener, senior U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. “It’s a very mixed picture, but there’s nothing that’s signaling immediate relief.”Most forecasters expect G.D.P. growth to pick up somewhat in the final three months of the year, but few expect a strong enough rebound to make up for the third quarter’s disappointing results.

GDP Slows Sharply in Third Quarter Due to Supply Chain Pressures By DEAN BAKER -GDP grew at just a 2.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter as supply chain issues hampered growth in several key areas. Durable goods consumption contracted at a 26.2 percent annual rate, knocking 2.7 percentage points off the quarter’s growth. Equipment investment fell at a 3.2 percent annual rate, while housing construction dropped at a 7.7 percent annual rate, knocking 0.18 percentage points and 0.38 percentage points off the quarter’s growth, respectively. Even with Third-Quarter Declines, Vehicle Consumption Is Still Far Above Pre-Pandemic Levels. The drop in third-quarter car sales accounted for 2.39 percentage points of the hit to GDP from durables. However, car sales are still 4.3 percent above the year-round average for 2020. This means that the supply chain problems are stemming from extraordinary demand, which will fade in the quarters ahead, not an inability to supply a normal quantity of vehicles.Housing Is Also Above Pre-Pandemic Levels, In Spite of Third Quarter Decline Even with the 7.7 percent drop in housing construction, which followed a drop of 11.7 percent in the second quarter, output in the sector was still more than 10 percent above the 2019 average. It will likely remain somewhere near the current level in future quarters, after jumping sharply due to low interest rates at the start of the pandemic.In spite of concerns about the spread of the delta variant, services grew at a solid 7.9 percent annual rate following growth of 11.5 percent in the second quarter. However, service consumption is still 1.6 percent below its pre-pandemic level. Recreation services and transportation, which is largely commuting expenses, account for the bulk of this drop. The category of food services and accommodations rose at a 12.4 percent annual rate in the quarter (in spite of delta) adding 0.54 percentage points to growth. Real restaurant sales are actually above pre-pandemic levels. This was all due to growth in non-farm inventories, which added 2.14 percentage points to growth. Farm inventories continued a fall that began in the third quarter of 2015. The drop in non-farm inventories presumably is the result of both relatively low prices over this period and weather conditions. It is important to realize that inventories still declined at a $77.7 billion annual rate in the third quarter, but this was still a positive for GDP since it was much slower than the $168.5 billion rate of decline in the second quarter. As inventories stop shrinking and start to rebuild, they will be a big positive for growth in future quarters.Declines in equipment investment and structures largely offset an increase of 12.2 percent in investment in intellectual products. The rise in investment in intellectual products was the fourth consecutive double-digit increase. The 3.2 percent decline in equipment investment is likely due to supply chain problems, as it had been growing at double-digit rates for the last four quarters and orders remain high. The drop in structure investment is due to less demand for office and retail space, which is likely to be a permanent feature of the post-pandemic world.A rise in the trade deficit, due to a 2.5 percent drop in exports and a 6.1 percent rise in imports, slowed growth by 1.14 percentage points in the quarter. The rise in imports was all on the service side, which rose at a 44.4 percent annual rate. This was largely US travel abroad, which was up more than 50 percent from the second quarter rate but still less than 60 percent of pre-pandemic level. Foreign travel in the US fell slightly in the quarter and is still just over 30 percent of pre-pandemic levels.The saving rate was 8.9 percent in the quarter, which is well above the 7.5 percent average for the three years before the pandemic. This means that we are still not seeing the story pushed by inflation hawks that people would be spending down the savings they had accumulated during the period where large sectors of the economy were shut down, and they were getting the pandemic checks from the government.

Marred by Inflation, Inventory Shortages, and Record Trade Deficit, GDP Growth in Q3 Reverts to Decade Normal - The US economy, as measured by GDP, adjusted for inflation, grew by an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q3 from Q2. This is far below the pandemic growth rates of the past four quarters. But hey, those were special. In the decade from 2010 through 2019, annual GDP growth averaged 2.3% and never reached 3% in any single year. So 2.0% is in that normal range for the US economy.But Q3 wasn’t normal. It was marred by rampant inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain chaos that led to a continued drop in inventories (a negative for GDP) and caused manufacturers, industrial companies, and retailers – particularly in the huge auto industry – to run out of product for consumers to buy. And it was further marred by a huge record massive blistering trade deficit, which is a negative for GDP.To show the detail of that 2.0% annualized GDP growth in the chart below, I have truncated the two historic outliers, the 31.2% plunge in Q2 2020 and the 33.8% spike in Q3 2020:Compared to Q3 2020, GDP still soared by 4.9% from Q3 a year ago – outside of Q2, the highest year-over-year growth rate since Q2 2000.Real GDP, expressed in “chained 2012 dollars,” in Q3 rose to a new record of a “seasonally adjusted annual rate” of $19.5 trillion:Inflation ate everyone’s lunch: The BEA’s PCE price index, which relates to consumer spending, increased by an annualized rate of 5.3% in Q3, down from an annualized rate of 6.5% in Q2, which had been the highest since 1982.The broad Price Index for Gross Domestic Purchases, the BEA’s inflation measure that roughly parallels its inflation adjustments to GDP, rose by an annualized rate of 5.4% in Q3, down from an increase of 5.8% in the prior quarter. Both were the highest since 1982.Consumer spending – after the stimulus-powered gigantic gains in Q1 and Q2 – edged up by only 0.4% in Q3 from Q2, which amounts to an annualized growth rate of 1.6%, to an annual rate of $13.72 trillion in chained 2012 dollars, a new record.Consumers had trouble outspending the rampant price increases. And with some products, such as new vehicles, they had trouble finding something to buy, as inventories had been depleted. Inventories at auto dealers collapsed, and new vehicle sales plunged.Consumer spending accounted for 70.5% of total GDP, the second time ever that it was above 70%, Q2 having been the first time. This shows to what extent stimulus has powered consumer spending. The Trade Deficit in goods and services, oh my, fueled by imports, which are fueled by consumer spending on imported goods, sharply worsened to a new worst. Exports add to GDP, imports lower GDP. The balance (exports minus imports), or “net exports,” worsened by $67 billion, or by 5.4%, to a record worst of -$1.31 trillion annual rate (in 2012 dollars). This 50-year chart is an indictment of globalization over the past three decades by Corporate America: Gross private domestic investment rose by 2.8%, after two quarters of declines, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $3.6 trillion. This category includes the major sub-categories “change in private inventories” and “fixed private investment.”Inventories continued to drop amid widespread shortages of materials, components, and finished products across the economy, but most catastrophically in the auto industry, which has been waylaid by the semiconductor shortages, and inventories of new vehicles at auto dealers have collapsed. Auto dealer inventories normally account for over one-third of total retailer inventories, and they move the needle, but many other retailers too where in short supply.A drop in private inventories lowers GDP. An increase adds to GDP. Private inventories dropped by $78 billion annualized, or by 2.8%, in Q3 from Q2, to $2.78 trillion, a level first seen in Q1 2018:

GDP growth: is this as good as it gets? - The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in the third quarter, slightly below the average growth rate of 2.25% that we saw during the previous economic expansion. Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2021:Q3, with the 2009:3-2019:4 average (2.25%) in red. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of GDP from the previous quarter. The new data put the Econbrowser recession indicator index at 0.3%, historically a very low value and signalling an unambiguous continuation of the economic expansion. The number posted today (0.3%) is an assessment of the situation of the economy in the previous quarter (namely 2021:Q2). We use the one-quarter lag to allow for data revisions and to gain better precision. This index provides the basis for an automatic procedure that we have been implementing for 15 years for assigning dates for the first and last quarters of economic recessions. As we announced on January 28, the COVID recession ended in the second quarter of 2020. The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee subsequently made the same announcement on July 19. GDP-based recession indicator index. The plotted value for each date is based solely on the GDP numbers that were publicly available as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2021:Q2 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions represent the NBER’s dates for recessions, which dates were not used in any way in constructing the index. By Q2, the level of GDP had recovered to the value reached in 2019:Q4 before the COVID recession began. But if we hoped to return to the trend line associated with the previous expansion (shown in red in the graph below), we’d need to see growth for Q3 of over 4%, not 2%, and we’d have to maintain that pace for a full year. 100 times the natural logarithm of the level of real GDP, 1990:Q1 to 2021:Q3, normalized at 2019:Q4 = 100. A movement on the vertical axis of 1 unit corresponds to a 1% change in the level of real GDP. Blue line extrapolates the trend from the 1991-2000 expansion, green from the 2001-2007 expansion, and red from the 2010-2019 expansion. But the expectation that we’ll recover to the previous trend once a recession is over doesn’t have much support in the data. Economic recessions seem to have permanent effects on the level of GDP. There is often above-average growth in the first few quarters of expansion (the recovery phase in a “V” shape). But once the level of GDP is back to its pre-recession value, trend growth becomes the norm. We also see in the above graph that the average growth rates during expansions (which determine the slopes of the lines) seem to be falling over time. Big factors in those falling average growth rates are slower growth of the labor force and productivity. In terms of the individual components of GDP, a key reason that the economy grew at only a 2% rate in Q3 is slower growth in consumption spending. Purchases of automobiles were a big factor in this. An important cause is difficulties car manufacturers are having in acquiring the computer chips required to put together the modern car. Another disappointment was new home construction, which made a negative contribution to the Q3 growth rate. We’ve seen plenty of stimulus for more residential fixed investment with low interest rates and dramatically rising house prices. Some analysts are also blaming sluggish new home construction in part on supply-side problems. Inventory changes were an even bigger factor in the GDP numbers. If inventory investment had not made a positive contribution, GDP in Q3 would actually have declined relative to Q2. To understand what this means, it’s important to remember the way that inventories enter the GDP accounts. The change in inventories during a quarter is referred to as inventory investment. If inventories end up higher than they started out, inventory investment is positive, and if inventories are lower than they started out, inventory investment is negative. Inventory investment was sharply negative in Q2 of this year (namely -$174B at a quarterly rate). Inventory investment was still negative in Q3 (namely, -$68B), but not as negative as in Q2. Thus inventory investment was $106B higher in Q3 than it had been in Q2 (-68 – (-174) = +106). This alone accounts for essentially all of the increase in GDP between Q2 and Q3.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 24th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 21.0% from the same day in 2019 (79.0% of 2019). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 23, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday - but might be picking up a little again. The 7-day average for the US is down 7% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 21st. Movie ticket sales were at $136 million last week, down about 14% from the median for the week. Dune will be included in the numbers next week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through October 16th. The occupancy rate was down 10.0% compared to the same week in 2019. The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019. Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel. However, this year, so far, business travel has been lighter than leisure travel in 2021. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of October 15th, gasoline supplied was up slightly compared to the same week in 2019. This was the 7th week so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - and consumption is running close to 2019 levels now. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities. This data is through October 23rd for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 115% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but New York subway usage is down sharply (next graph). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. This data is through Friday, October 15th. He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".

Manchin backs raising debt ceiling with reconciliation if GOP balks - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Democrats should use arcane budget rules to raise the debt ceiling if they can't get a deal with Republicans. Manchin, speaking at an Economic Club of Washington, D.C., event, first floated that the debt ceiling could be raised through the 14th Amendment, which says the public debt "shall not be questioned." "The debt limit should be the 14th Amendment. The president has the right to make that decision. We have the right to override if we think he went too far. That to me is the simplest," Manchin said at the event. But Manchin added that if Democrats can't get GOP support for that idea, then Democrats should use arcane budget rules known as reconciliation to raise the debt ceiling. "If we can't do it, and they don't agree on that, Democrats have the responsibility, being the majority party right now, to do it through reconciliation," Manchin said. Manchin's comments come after Congress approved a short-term debt limit hike that raises the nation's borrowing limit through roughly Dec. 3. Eleven Republicans helped pass the short-term hike, but Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned in a letter to President Biden that Republicans wouldn't help again later this year after he faced fierce pushback from conservatives and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) angered Republicans by giving a fiery floor speech after the vote. "Last night, Republicans filled the leadership vacuum that has troubled the Senate since January. I write to inform you that I will not provide such assistance again if your all-Democrat government drifts into another avoidable crisis," McConnell wrote in the letter to Biden. The standoff over the debt ceiling has sparked new pressure among Democrats to change the legislative filibuster to provide an exception for bills related to the debt limit. Biden indicated that the filibuster discussion could come to a head if Republicans blocked a debt hike later this year. “I think you’re going to see ... an awful lot of Democrats being ready to say ... we’re going to end the filibuster," he said. But Manchin reiterated on Tuesday that he doesn't support changing the filibuster, saying that it "makes no sense to me at all" to abandon the rule requiring 60 votes for most legislation. Manchin shutting down Sanders on Medicare expansion Manchin jokes on party affiliation: 'I don't know where in the hell I... If Democrats can't get Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to support an exemption from the filibuster for the debt ceiling, they could raise the debt ceiling on their own through reconciliation, a process that allows them to bypass the 60-vote hurdle.

Biden says US will go to war with China to defend Taiwan --US President Biden bluntly declared at a Town Hall meeting on Thursday that the US was committed to going to war against China in defence of Taiwan. The statement is another provocative step that undermines the basis of US-China diplomatic relations and intensifies the already acute tensions between the two countries. Biden was asked from the audience what he would do to keep up with China militarily and “can you vow to protect Taiwan,” to which he replied “yes and yes.” He dismissed the suggestion that China would overtake the US militarily, declaring that the world “knows we have the most powerful military in the history of the world.”The meeting’s moderator, Anderson Cooper, clearly aware that Biden’s unconditional military support for Taiwan represented a fundamental shift in US policy, sought to clarify the comments leading to the following exchange:

• Cooper: So, are you saying that the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense if —
• Biden: Yes.
• Cooper: — China attacked?
• Biden: Yes, we have a commitment to do that.

The White House subsequently sought to play down the remarks, declaring that Biden was not announcing a policy change. “[W]e will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defence and we will continue to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo,” it said.Biden did not, however, simply misspeak. As the most senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for 12 years, Biden is fully aware of the diplomatic implications and potential dangers of unequivocal military backing for Taiwan.The establishment of US diplomatic relations with China in 1979, following President Nixon’s trip to Beijing in 1972, was premised on the so-called One China policy whereby Washington de facto recognised Beijing as the legitimate government of all China including Taiwan. The US severed diplomatic ties and ended its military pact with Taipei and withdrew all military forces from the island.

Russian hackers launched a massive, ongoing wave of cyber attacks against the US, report says Russia launched another massive cyber-attacking operation against the US even after Biden confronted Putin about previous attacks, The New York Times reported Monday. According to the report, the attacks are ongoing. Tom Burt, a top Microsoft security executive, said in a statement Sunday that a group of hackers had been linked to some 23,000 attacks this year on more than 600 organizations. The group had previously been linked to Russia's intelligence services. Microsoft said the hackers targeted providers of cloud software services, of which they are a prominent example. It could represents a renewed attempt by Russia to gain access to sensitive information held by government agencies, think tanks, and private corporations, the New York Times said. Microsoft refers to the group of hackers as Nobellium, but they are more widely known as Cozy Bear, which Dutch intelligence agencies in 2016 identified as a branch of Russia's SVR foreign-intelligence service. Burt said the group had started focusing its attacks on technology firms that provide and manage internet cloud services. Microsoft suspects that the group will try to "piggyback" on any access those firms have to other companies' IT systems, and thereby gain access to them as well.

Manchin shutting down Sanders on Medicare expansion -Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday shut down one of Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders's (I-Vt.) biggest priorities, expanding Medicare, which Manchin warned would undermine the solvency of the broader program. Sanders insisted in a tweet Saturday that his proposal to expand Medicare to cover dental, hearing and vision must be included in a budget reconciliation package that is likely to come in well below the $3.5 trillion price tag Democratic leaders initially envisioned. But Manchin on Monday threw cold water on Sanders’s push to expand Medicare, warning the program faces insolvency in 2026. “My big concern right now is the 2026 deadline [for] Medicare insolvency and if no one’s concerned about that, I’ve got people — that’s a lifeline. Medicare and Social Security is a lifeline for people back in West Virginia, most people around the country,” Manchin warned. “You’ve got to stabilize that first before you look at basically expansion. So if we’re not being fiscally responsible, that’s a concern,” he added. That’s going to cause a problem with Sanders, whose vote is also essential to getting the budget reconciliation bill passed through the 50-50 Senate. “The expansion of Medicare to cover dental, hearing and vision is one of the most popular and important provisions in the entire reconciliation bill. It’s what the American people want. It’s not coming out,” Sanders tweeted over the weekend. But Medicare’s board of trustees warned in a report to Congress at the end of August that the estimated depletion date for Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund is 2026. Furthermore, spending on Medicare is expected to rise from 4 percent of gross domestic product to 6.2 percent by 2045. Manchin raised Medicare’s dim fiscal future as a major concern and a big reason not to expand it now, when the federal budget deficit is expected to hit $3 trillion for this year alone, according to the Congressional Budget Office. “I’ve always said that I believe that government should be your best partner, but it shouldn’t be your provider. We have a moral obligation to provide to those who have incapacities such as physical or mental. But everyone else should be able to help and chip in and all that. So that’s my mindset,” he said. Manchin also raised concern about a proposal being pushed by Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) to create a new Medicaid-style program to extend health insurance benefits to low-income people in states that didn’t expand Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act. Manchin said he felt the proposal would be unfair to states such as West Virginia that expanded Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act but have to pick up 10 percent of the added cost of expanding the program.

Biden Meets With Manchin and Schumer to Iron Out Spending Bill - NYTimes— President Biden huddled with key Democrats on Sunday to iron out crucial spending and tax provisions as they raced to wrap up their expansive social safety net legislation before his appearance at a U.N. climate summit next week. Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California said Democrats were close to completing the bill, displaying confidence that the negotiations over issues like paid leave, tax increases and Medicare benefits that have bedeviled the party for months would soon end. “We have 90 percent of the bill agreed to and written. We just have some of the last decisions to be made,” Ms. Pelosi said on CNN’s “State of the Union,” adding that she hoped to pass an infrastructure bill that had already cleared the Senate and have a deal in hand on the social policy bill by the end of the week. “We’re pretty much there now.” Her comments came as Mr. Biden met with Senators Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, one of the critical centrist holdouts on the budget bill. The White House called the breakfast at Mr. Biden’s Wilmington home a “productive discussion.” For weeks, intraparty divisions over the scope and size of their marquee domestic policy plan have delayed an agreement on how to trim the initial $3.5 trillion blueprint Democrats passed this year. In order to bypass united Republican opposition and pass the final bill, Democrats are using an arcane budget process known as reconciliation, which shields fiscal legislation from a filibuster but would require every Senate Democrat to unite behind the plan in the evenly divided chamber. The party’s margins in the House are not much more forgiving. Facing opposition over the $3.5 trillion price tag, White House and party leaders are coalescing around a cost of up to $2 trillion over 10 years. They have spent days negotiating primarily with Mr. Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat of Arizona and another centrist holdout. House Democratic leaders hope to advance both a compromise reconciliation package and the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package. Liberals have so far balked at voting on the bipartisan deal until the more expansive domestic policy package — which is expected to address climate change, public education and health care — is agreed upon. But Democrats are facing a new sense of urgency to finish the legislation before Mr. Biden’s trip to a major United Nations climate change conference, where he hopes to point to the bill as proof that the United States is serious about leading the effort to fight global warming. Democrats are also increasingly eager to deliver the bipartisan legislation to Mr. Biden’s desk before elections for governor in Virginia and New Jersey on Nov. 2, to show voters the party is making good on its promise to deliver sweeping social change. And a number of transportation programs will lapse at the end of the month without congressional action on either a stopgap extension or passage of the infrastructure bill, leading to possible furloughs. The legislation is expected to include a one-year extension of payments to most families with children, first approved as part of the $1.9 trillion pandemic relief plan, as well as an increase in funds for Pell grants, support for home and elder care, and billions of dollars for affordable housing. It would also provide tax incentives to encourage use of wind, solar and other clean energy. While aides cautioned that details were in flux, the plan is also expected to address a cap on how much taxpayers can deduct in state and local taxes, a key priority for Mr. Schumer and other lawmakers who represent higher-income residents of high-tax states affected by the limit. But negotiators on Sunday were still haggling over a number of outstanding pieces, including the details of a federal paid family and medical leave program — already cut to four weeks from 12 weeks — Medicaid expansion and a push to expand Medicare benefits to include dental, vision and hearing. With Mr. Manchin pushing for a $1.5 trillion price tag, Democratic officials are urging for him to accept more spending in order to avoid dropping other programs.

Manchin says framework 'should' be possible this week --Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Monday that he believed Democrats "should" be able to get a deal on a framework agreement for President Biden's social spending bill this week. "Having it finished with all the t's and the i's and everything you know crossed and dotted that will be difficult from the Senate side because we have an awful lot of text to go through, but as far as conceptually we should, I really believe," Manchin told reporters on Monday. Manchin added that Democrats "should be" able to reach a deal on a framework this week, adding that "it really should be" finished. Manchin's comments come after he met on Sunday with Biden and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) in Delaware as Democratic leadership and the White House race to lock down a deal in a matter of days. Biden wants a framework agreement worked out before he goes to a climate summit in Scotland, telling lawmakers last week that he wants to be able to tout it as an accomplishment. Democrats initially passed a budget resolution earlier this year that would let them pass a bill of up to $3.5 trillion without GOP support. But Democrats are dramatically scaling down the size of the legislation as they try to figure out a way to win over all 50 members of the Senate Democratic Caucus and nearly every House Democrat. Manchin said that his top-line figure was still at $1.5 trillion but that talks are ongoing. "We're all working in good faith. I've been talking to everybody as you know. I think we've got a good understanding of each other better than we ever have," he said. Even as Manchin predicted that Democrats should be able to come to a deal on the broad outlines this week, he raised concerns about several key provisions on Monday that are considered key priorities for many of his Democratic colleagues. "I'm not going to talk about what's in and what's out right now because there's an awful lot of moving parts. But there's a lot of concerns we have on a lot of different things," Manchin said. Manchin said he wasn't yet on board with a plan to expand Medicare to cover vision, hearing and dental. "We have a moral obligation to provide for those who have incapacity ... everyone else should be able to help and chip in, so that's my mind set," Manchin said. Pressed again on expanding Medicare to cover the new benefits, Manchin added that "it's not fiscally responsible ... I want to make sure we shore up everything." Biden previously acknowledged that it is a "reach" to get the Medicare expansion into the spending bill but that Democrats were discussing a voucher to help cover some dental costs. Manchin's stance puts him at odds with Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who drew a red line over the weekend against removing Medicare expansion.

Manchin says he's open to tax targeting billionaires --Manchin says he's open to tax targeting billionaires 0 seconds of 23 secondsVolume 90% Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) signaled on Monday that he's open to a tax targeting billionaires as Democrats scramble to figure out how to pay for their sweeping social spending bill. "I'm open to any type of thing that makes people pay, that's not paying now. So people don't report income like you and I do, earned income, there has to be a way for them to pay their fair share," Manchin told reporters when asked about supporting a billionaire tax. Manchin added that while there were different approaches among Democrats, he supported "everyone basically paying their fair share of taxes." Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) is working on a so-called billionaire tax that would place an annual tax on unrealized capital gains. The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that the proposal would affect people with $1 billion in assets or $100 million in income for three consecutive years. “I think what's under consideration is a proposal that Senator Wyden and the Senate Finance Committee have been looking at that would impose a tax on unrealized capital gains, on liquid assets held by extremely wealthy individuals, billionaires. I wouldn't call that a wealth tax,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNN on Sunday. “But it would help get at capital gains, which are an extraordinarily large part of the incomes of the wealthiest individuals, and right now escape taxation, until they're realized, and often they're unrealized in the death benefit from a so-called step up of basis,” she added. Democrats are racing to come up with a plan on how to fund their package, which is central to Biden’s legislative agenda and includes key investments in child and health care, among other initiatives. The idea of a billionaire tax appears to be gaining momentum as Democrats tried to figure out a way around Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's (D-Ariz.) opposition to raising tax rates. Democrats had planned to pay for part of their plan by increasing taxes on high-income earners and corporations. But President Biden acknowledged last week during a CNN town hall that the idea appeared increasingly out of reach. "I don't think we're going to be able to get the vote," he said.

Senate negotiators homing in on proposal to tax billionaires -Democratic Senate negotiators are homing in on a final proposal to tax the nation’s wealthiest individuals and families as a principal source of revenue for a major human infrastructure spending bill. The proposal would apply only to taxpayers who have more than $1 billion in assets or who earn $100 million in income for three consecutive years, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. It would apply to around 700 taxpayers and is projected to raise hundreds of billions of dollars. “In a package that’s supposed to be about giving everybody a shot to get ahead, it would be a big mistake, from both a policy and a political perspective, not to ask billionaires to pay a fair share,” said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) in a statement Monday. “The Billionaires Income Tax is about fairness and showing the American people taxes aren’t mandatory for them and optional for the wealthiest people in the country,” Wyden said. “No working person in this country thinks it’s right that billionaires can pay no taxes for years on end, and sometimes never at all.” Senate Democrats initially wanted to raise revenue to pay for their budget reconciliation package by raising the corporate tax rate and marginal income tax rates on wealthy Americans in the top income tax bracket. But plans to raise the corporate tax rate and marginal income tax rates were shelved because of opposition from Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). Under the emerging alternative Senate Democratic proposal, tradable assets, such as stocks, would be marked to market every year. That means billionaires would have to pay taxes on gains and take deductions on losses for tradable assets on an annual basis, regardless of whether they sell those assets.Nontraded assets, such as real estate holdings, trophy artwork or ownership stakes in closely held business ventures, would be subject to capital gains taxes when they are sold as well as a “deferral recapture amount.” That means billionaires would have to pay interest on the taxes deferred during the time the asset is held before being sold.

Elon Musk rips Democrats' billionaire tax plan - Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk ripped the Democratic proposal for an annual tax on billionaires’ investment gains on Monday as lawmakers consider the tax as a way to fund the party’s multitrillion-dollar reconciliation package. Musk, who as of Monday had the highest net worth on Forbes’s list of billionaires, replied to a tweet featuring a photo of an email template constituents can send to their lawmakers to oppose the tax. The letter, which is meant to be addressed to a congressional lawmaker, says, “I expect you to oppose the Wyden proposal to tax unrealized capital gains.” “I anticipate that any new unrealized capital gains taxes will slowly make their way down to middle class retirement investments over the next several years. It will start with billionaires, then eventually millionaires, then the modest investments will get hit possibly within a decade,” the letter adds. Musk appeared to agree with the contents of the letter, replying in a tweet, “Exactly. Eventually, they run out of other people’s money and then they come for you.” In a separate tweet on Monday, Musk responded to an account that wrote, “I’d rather let @elonmusk allocate capital than Janet Yellen.” “Who is best at capital allocation — government or entrepreneurs — is indeed what it comes down to,” Musk tweeted in reply. “The tricksters will conflate capital allocation with consumption,” he added.

Biden, Schumer, Manchin huddle, but still no budget deal (AP) — Pivotal Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin appears to be on board with White House proposals for new taxes on billionaires and certain corporations to help pay for President Joe Biden’s scaled-back social services and climate change package. Biden huddled with the conservative West Virginia Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer at the president’s Delaware home Sunday as they work on resolving the disputes between centrists and progressives that have stalled the Democrats’ wide-ranging bill. A person who requested anonymity to discuss Manchin’s position told The Associated Press the senator is agreeable to the White House’s new approach on the tax proposals. What had been a sweeping $3.5 trillion plan is now being eyed as $1.75 trillion package. That’s within a range that could still climb considerably higher, according to a second person who requested anonymity to discuss the private talks. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that even at “half” the original $3.5 trillion proposed, Biden’s signature domestic initiative would be larger than any other legislative package with big investments in health care, child care and strategies to tackle climate change. “It is less than what was projected to begin with, but it’s still bigger than anything we have ever done in terms of addressing the needs of America’s working families,” Pelosi said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Democrats are working intensely to try again to wrap up talks on the measure so the president can spotlight his administration’s achievements to world leaders at two overseas summits on the economy and climate change that get underway this week. Biden met with Manchin and Schumer, D-N.Y., at the president’s home in Wilmington after Democrats missed last week’s deadline to resolve disputes. Biden has said he’d like to see a $2 trillion package and they are trying again this upcoming week to reach agreement. It’s unclear what level of the new taxes Manchin would support, but he generally backs the White House proposals, according to the person who requested anonymity to discuss Manchin’s position. Neither person requesting anonymity was authorized to discuss the negotiations by name. The White House said the breakfast meeting was a “productive discussion” about the president’s agenda. The talks appeared to last for hours, but no decisions were announced. The Democrats “continued to make progress,” the White House said in its post-meeting statement. Resolving the revenue side is key as the Democrats insist the new spending will be fully paid for by the various taxes. Manchin and another Democrat, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, have almost on their own halted Biden’s proposal from advancing. With Republican opposition and an evenly split 50-50 Senate, Biden has no votes to spare and the two Democratic senators have insisted on reducing the size of the enormous package and pressed for other changes.

Hoyer says deal is imminent, as early as Tuesday - House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) predicted Tuesday that a long-sought Democratic agreement on President Biden's domestic policy agenda is imminent, saying a deal could be announced as soon as Tuesday afternoon. "The president's working very hard on this, and the Speaker's been working very hard on it," Hoyer said during a press call. "And so there's a lot of work that's been done and I think it could come together relatively quickly in the next few hours." Such a timeline appears highly optimistic — some lawmakers said improbable — given the number of sticking points remaining as Democratic leaders race to secure a deal on a social spending package at the center of Biden's economic policy agenda. Outstanding disagreements between liberals and moderates over a Medicare expansion, paid family leave benefits and climate initiatives have all prolonged the debate and threatened to alienate one faction or another, jeopardizing Biden's top domestic priority. Some lawmakers said it will likely take a week to iron out those differences. "We're close. We're really close. And I think if we can just take another week and finalize all these details and get the language done on both the bills, I think we'll be in good shape," said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), head of the Progressive Caucus. Hoyer's comments came shortly after House Democrats huddled in the Capitol basement, where party leaders briefed lawmakers on the latest developments in the scramble to secure a deal on the social benefits package. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told lawmakers that roughly 90 percent of the package is finalized. And she urged members of all stripes to "embrace" the emerging agreement, even if it doesn't meet their every ideal. “No bill is everything," she said. "We cannot miss this opportunity.” While there is no real deadline for securing an agreement, there is a growing sense of urgency to get it done. The president is leaving Washington Thursday for Europe, where a global climate summit is set to begin on Oct. 31, and Democrats are racing to win a deal before then so the president can tout America's commitment to the issue on the world stage.

Dozens of Democrats call for spending bill to pass 'climate test' - More than 60 congressional Democrats are calling for the party's massive spending bill, which is still under negotiation, to pass a “climate test” with strong emissions reductions ahead of a major global climate conference in Scotland. “Before COP26, it is critical to secure agreement from all relevant parties on a Build Back Better deal that meets the ‘climate test’ by achieving the scientifically-necessary emissions reduction goal while creating good union jobs and advancing environmental, racial, and economic justice,” wrote the lawmakers in a letter to President Biden that was led by Sens. Ed Markey (Mass.) and Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and Rep. Ilhan Omar (Minn.). Their climate test includes delivering “measurable emissions reductions," while the letter specifically raised concerns about the potential exclusion of a Clean Electricity Performance Program — which would have sought to shift the country’s electric production to mostly clean energy sources through a mix of grants and fines on power providers. The lawmakers said that if this program is not included in the final deal, “we will need your unwavering support for significant additional investments in climate priorities to close the resulting emissions gap.” They also called for the inclusion of several programs — many of which were previously proposed as part of the deal, including expanding access to “union-built” electric vehicles, creating a conservation jobs program called the Civilian Climate Corps and getting rid of fossil fuel subsidies. The letter comes amid reports that Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va) opposition to the clean electricity program is expected to result in its exclusion from Democrats’ spending bill. With the Senate's 50-50 split, Democrats can't afford to lose a single vote to get their bill across the finish line. In the wake of that news, many Democrats have pledged to look for alternatives and continue to bolster climate action. Biden, during a CNN town hall on Thursday night, said that nothing had been formally agreed to, but if the electricity program is out, he said he’ll look for other ways to make the climate investment. “The negotiation is….if we don't do it in terms of the electric grid piece, what we'll do is give me that $150 billion. I’m going to add it to be able to do other things that allow me to do things that don't directly affect the electric grid in the way that there's a penalty but allow me to spend the money to set new technologies in place,” he said, according to a transcript of the event. There is pressure on Washington to get the deal done ahead of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, where countries will negotiate the future of climate action, in order to show that the U.S. is serious about its own commitments. .

White House plans for $500B for climate in Democratic spending bill - Democrats are poised to spend at least $500 billion on climate in their spending package — indicating a smaller top-line cut than other programs in the reconciliation bill. During The Hill’s A More Perfect Union event on Tuesday, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain alluded to the figure, saying, “We have a proposal in the reconciliation bill, in the Build Back Better bill, to make a historic investment in climate change.” “More than $500 billion over 10 years. Just to put that in perspective, the entire Department of Energy over the next 10 years is going to spend $450 billion. We’re talking about an investment in climate change larger than the entire Department of Energy. We just now have to go get that done. I think we’re making a lot of progress in that regard,” he said. Two sources confirmed to The Hill that the White House was telling lawmakers that the climate provisions will probably cost more than $500 billion, saying that an Axios report on the topic was accurate. That report also listed a number of climate provisions expected to be in the bill, including grants, loans and tax credits for industrial decarbonization, expanded rooftop solar and electrification for houses, expanded grants and loans for clean energy and efficiency at rural electric co-ops, and expanded grants and loans to help agriculture shift toward clean energy. The news comes as Democrats inch closer to an agreement on the climate portion of their package, with senators indicating that they believe they have a pathway that includes a fee on methane emissions. But it also followed a cut to a different key program that sought to decarbonize the electric sector through grants and fines to power providers amid opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

Congress eyes $235B in clean energy subsidies. Here they are - Congress has a long-standing aversion to climate policy. Cap and trade saw a spectacular death in 2010. A plan to pay utilities for selling more clean electricity was axed this month. And proposals to tax carbon dioxide emissions never had a chance. But there is one major exception to lawmakers’ reluctance to tackle greenhouse gases: clean energy subsidies. Congress passed the first production tax credit for wind in 1992. The PTC has been extended 13 times since then. Solar energy and carbon capture have long-standing incentives as well. Now, lawmakers appear poised to double down. The reconciliation package contains roughly $235 billion in incentives for everything from wind and solar to emerging technologies like green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels. By contrast, the economic stimulus package passed in 2009 offered $90 billion in clean energy spending. President Biden’s climate agenda is now riding on the passage of tax incentives, especially after the Clean Electricity Performance Program was stripped from the bill in the face of opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). For longtime climate watchers, it is a familiar scene. “Fundamentally, our country has proceeded with tax incentives and regulation,” said Julio Friedmann, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “It may take awhile to get the regulation in place, but we can get started with the tax credits.” Tax incentives are not a substitute for an economywide carbon price or a clean electricity standard, he continued. “But it is a proven way to accelerate CO2 removal and reduction.” The particulars of the package remain fluid, but here’s a breakdown based on the bill that was marked up in the House Ways and Means Committee in September.

Manchin signals opposition to EV charging station spending - Electric vehicle infrastructure spending in the Democratic reconciliation package may be the next policy targeted by Sen. Joe Manchin for a potential rollback, according to comments this morning during an appearance at the Economic Club of Washington. Manchin’s remarks happened as leaders look to finalize a framework with the West Virginia Democrat in the coming days on a massive reconciliation package focused on climate and social infrastructure provisions. But like his opposition to a $150 billion Clean Electricity Performance Program, meant to reward utilities that embrace renewables, Manchin said he does not agree that the federal government’s role should be supporting private-sector EV infrastructure buildouts. “They talked about electric vehicles spending, $80 million building charging stations,” Manchin said. “I said I’m having a hard time with that. I don’t remember the federal government building filling stations when Henry Ford invented the Model T.” As written in the House’s reconciliation plan, the package would send tens of billions of dollars through the departments of Transportation and Energy to help develop the electric vehicle supply chain and charging infrastructure. Funding for similar programs is included in the bipartisan infrastructure package, backed by Manchin, although not at the same levels as the reconciliation effort. Manchin has also been at the center of the debate over whether a methane fee on oil and gas operators can make the final reconciliation cut, in addition to a host of other clean energy tax incentives. Following his appearance this morning, Manchin argued that the fee could be an effort “to punish for the sake of punishing.” “With a lot of the things they are talking about with methane, I’m understanding from the people that produce natural gas and the methane, they can’t get pipelines approved,” Manchin told reporters. “So the environmentalists can’t have it one way and then say, ‘We can do this [fee] and fine you for this because we want you to do this.’ It doesn’t make any sense at all.” Manchin’s opposition has put the fee on the edge of elimination from the package. He did, however, suggest negotiations continue on that front. Environment and Public Works Committee Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.), a major backer of the fee, agreed with that assessment. "Those negotiations continue literally as we speak and will likely continue throughout the day,” Carper said today. “We had a good start on those conversations yesterday. Methane fee is very much on the table."

Senators weigh future of methane fee in spending bill - The future of another key climate provision, a fee on methane emissions from oil and gas development, is being negotiated on Capitol Hill. Leaving a meeting of Senate committee chairs with jurisdiction over climate provisions, Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) said he hopes the fee will be included in a massive spending bill Democrats are negotiating. “My hope is going to be in,” said Carper, who chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. “We’ve negotiated a methane fee. We’ve tried to do it in a way that Sen. [Joe] Manchin [D-W.Va.] and his folks will be more receptive of it, and we’re still talking,” he added, saying in the meeting that lawmakers discussed a “broad range” of climate provisions. His comments came after Reuters reported, citing two anonymous sources, that the methane fee was likely out of the multitrillion-dollar human infrastructure package. But Manchin, the centrist West Virginia Democrat who chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, told reporters that nothing had been agreed to. Also seen leaving the Democratic meeting were Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.), Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (Ore.), Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), and Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Gary Peters (Mich.). According to Schumer’s office, the methane fee is expected to be responsible for about 9 percent of the climate benefits from both the Democratic human and climate infrastructure package and the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Energy companies boost lobbying amid reconciliation fight - Fossil fuel companies, electric utilities and other industries significantly increased their spending on lobbying federal officials as debates over President Biden and congressional Democrats’ climate change agenda heated up. While Democrats crafted their proposals like the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP), fees for oil and natural gas companies’ methane emissions, and new incentives to buy electric vehicles, the energy industry and its allies were doubling down on their efforts to stop or otherwise influence the policies, according to lobbying disclosures due last week that detailed activity between July and September. The disclosures showed increases in spending by groups like the American Gas Association, the National Mining Association and the American Petroleum Institute — organizations that have been harshly critical of parts of the "Build Back Better Act," the Democrats’ budget reconciliation package that was initially targeted to be $3.5 trillion but will soon be pared back. The American Gas Association increased its lobbying spending 67 percent over the same quarter last year to $550,000, while the National Mining Association had a 91 percent hike to $530,000 and the American Petroleum Institute spent $1.25 million, a 4 percent boost. All disclosed lobbying on some portions of the Democrats’ climate and environmental agenda. NMA is not only focused on policies affecting coal. House Democrats are also pushing mining law reforms as part of reconciliation. It’s unclear whether that effort remains alive (E&E Daily, Oct. 6). API said its lobbying included pushing for carbon pricing and direct regulation of methane emissions. “We continue to work to defeat a punitive and duplicative natural gas tax and other misguided efforts to restrict the affordable, reliable energy needed to fuel America’s economic recovery,” said spokesperson Bethany Aronhalt Williams. Some of the biggest spending increases among energy companies came from Koch Industries Inc., with an 82 percent increase to $3.25 million; Marathon Petroleum Corp., which boosted spending 134 percent to $820,000; ConocoPhillips Co.’s 59 percent increase to $620,000; and BP PLC’s $1.17 million spending, a 31 percent increase. Lobbying by Marathon, a fuel refiner, focused on issues including the renewable fuel standard, sustainable aviation fuels and potential expansions to the master limited partnership structure, said spokesperson Jamal Kheiry, who noted that the third quarter of 2020 saw an “unusual lack of legislative activity.” Capitol Tax Partners, a lobbying firm working for Marathon, said in its quarterly disclosure that its advocacy for the refiner included the reconciliation bill and the “Clean Energy for America Act,” S. 1298, the Senate Democrats’ proposal to overhaul clean energy tax incentives. Jean Su, director of the energy justice program at the Center for Biological Diversity, said the fossil fuel industry deserves blame for the difficulty Democrats are having in passing their climate proposals amid opposition mainly from Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). “The fossil fuel lobby’s grimy fingerprints are all over yet another congressional deadlock on meaningful climate action,” Su told E&E News in a statement.

Natural gas associations urge Congress to withdraw new natural gas tax - The American Gas Association (AGA), American Petroleum institute (API), Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA), and Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA) have reiterated calls for Congress to withdraw a new tax on natural gas – described as a ‘methane fee’ –from the proposed budget reconciliation bill. “Make no mistake, our industry supports methane emissions regulations that are safe, effective, and protect energy reliability. EPA is expected to propose significant new federal methane emissions regulations any day now, yet the new tax under consideration in Congress would apply regardless of compliance with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations. This tax on natural gas is not about reducing emissions – it’s about forcing American families, regardless of their income level, to help fund the reconciliation package through higher utility bills,” said Amy Andryszak, President and CEO of INGAA. “We must continue to drive down methane emissions without adding new burdens on American families and businesses. With one-third of households already facing challenges affording their energy needs, Congress should not add a new tax on natural gas. Our analysis indicates that the proposed tax could increase natural gas bills from 12% to 34%, depending on the variation of the proposal assessed,” added Karen Harbert, President and CEO of AGA. “This is nothing more than a tax on natural gas at a time when policymakers should be focused on solutions that support affordable, reliable energy while reducing emissions. The direct regulation of methane by the EPA is the most impactful way to build on the downward trend of methane emission rates in key producing regions rather than a duplicative and punitive natural gas tax that would only hurt American consumers and undermine the economic recovery,” continued Frank Macchiarola, API Senior Vice President of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs. “Natural gas and petroleum together account for nearly 70% of energy consumption in the US. These new taxes will not only impose a burden on industry and consumers generally, they are specifically designed to impose a new burden on small businesses. This costly policy will send both jobs and greenhouse gas emissions to other countries,” concluded Barry Russell, President and CEO of IPAA. (3)

Democrats likely to ditch U.S. methane fee amid opposition, sources say - A Democratic proposal to impose a methane fee on U.S. oil and gas producers is not likely to be included in the party’s massive spending bill in Congress amid opposition within its own ranks, two sources familiar with the negotiations said on Oct. 25. The proposal to tax oil and gas producers for methane emissions above a certain threshold faces opposition from U.S. Senator Joe Manchin, who represents natural gas-producing West Virginia, along with Democrats from oil-producer Texas, the sources said. The fee, supported by the White House, is part of a broader effort by Democratic President Joe Biden to curb the greenhouse-gas methane, considered the biggest cause of climate change after CO₂. Biden is hoping to finalize the framework of a broad spending package that expands the nation’s social safety net and seeks to tackle climate change before he leaves for the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Scotland on Oct. 28. The EPA is expected to announce new rules this week to reduce methane emissions. The U.S. recently announced a Global Methane Pledge with the EU to cut methane emissions 30% by 2030. Under a plan approved by the House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee in September, oil and natural gas producers would have to pay $1,500 for each metric ton of methane they emit above specific intensity thresholds. Democrats hold narrow majorities in the House and Senate. Republican critics have said the fee would raise costs associated with heating homes and fueling cars, while Democrats argued it would reduce greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global warming. The American Petroleum Institute industry group lobbied to kill the methane fee being discussed in Congress, which it called duplicative and punitive. The group said it broadly supports the EPA’s efforts to regulate methane from existing oil and gas operations.

Methane fee teeters as Dems keep haggling - A proposal to impose a methane fee for oil and gas producers is on shaky ground for survival in the congressional Democrats’ social spending bill. It’s the latest climate priority at risk of getting scrapped as negotiations over the reconciliation package continue and as negotiators begin to contend with the reality of making difficult choices to satisfy Sen. Joe Manchin’s demands for both a lower price tag and policy concessions.After nixing what many considered the centerpiece of the reconciliation bill’s climate provisions — the $150 billion Clean Electricity Performance Program, or CEPP — the West Virginia Democrat now appears to be expressing concern about the proposal to charge oil and gas facilities for methane emissions that exceed certain levels.Manchin met yesterday afternoon to discuss the climate portion of the reconciliation package with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.), Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Senate Agriculture Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).“My hope is, it’s going to be in,” Carper, whose committee has jurisdiction over the methane fee, told reporters following the meeting. “We negotiated a methane fee, we tried to do it in a way that Sen. Manchin and his folks would be more receptive of, and we’re still talking about it and continuing to work through it.”The methane fee was a tough sell from the beginning for moderates, particularly those who represent oil and gas interests, with Republicans labeling it as a natural gas tax and questioning whether costs would be passed on to consumers.As written by the House Energy and Commerce Committee, the fee — calculated via a complex formula — would be assessed on individual oil and gas facilities that report methane emissions under the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program.Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas), who represents parts of Houston, raised concerns about the proposal during the committee’s markup of its reconciliation package last month, though she ultimately voted for it (E&E Daily, Sept. 14).Manchin, for his part, did not say after the meeting yesterday whether he opposes the methane fee but earlier in the day did reiterate his broader view that climate policy should focus on the carrot and not the stick. “We’re working on climate, basically, credits and trying to help people with incentives,” Manchin told reporters. “You’re not going to be able to penalize yourself, you’re not going to be able to regulate to a cleaner environment.”

Biden spending plan set to include at least $500B for climate – The White House is privately telling lawmakers the climate portion of President Biden's roughly $2 trillion social spending plan is "mostly settled" and will likely cost more than $500 billion, two sources familiar with the talks tell Axios. A price tag of $500 billion to $555 billion is a huge number and, if it holds, would likely be the single biggest component of the sweeping package. It also isn't far off from the roughly $600 billion proposed when the bill was expected to cost $3.5 trillion. The significant investment underscores the level of commitment Democrats are making to climate change mitigation. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), a key progressive involved in the Senate's climate talks, also told Axios the bill will cost at least $500 billion. "Everything else is getting a massive haircut, but this isn't," Schatz said. "This will be, just as a matter of fact, the biggest climate bill in human history. At least half a trillion dollars. That's a pretty good story to tell at the Conference of Parties (COP26)," he added. The 2021 United Nations climate conference convenes next week in Glasgow, Scotland, and President Biden is attending. As Axios' Andrew Freedman notes, having a big climate portion is essential for getting the broader social safety net expansion passed in the House. Given climate is a key priority among progressives, a $500-billion-plus price tag should help. The remainder of the climate section still under negotiation focuses on how to spread around the $150 billion initially slated for the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP). That program was nixed due to opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). He chairs the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, which will determine how to spend the leftover funds. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, told Axios he expects negotiators will devote that money to energy transmission and storage. The White House hosted roughly a dozen climate advocacy group leaders on Monday to discuss this section of the bill, a source familiar with the meeting told Axios. Details: The following provisions are expected to be included in the bill, according to a source familiar with the negotiations:

• New grants and loans to support industrial sector decarbonization, in addition to expanding relevant tax credits to support this goal.
• Manufacturing credits to help grow domestic supply chains for solar, offshore, and onshore wind. Some of those credits will be targeted to the auto and energy communities.
• Expanding access to rooftop solar and home electrification.
• Expanding grants and loans to rural co-ops to boost clean energy and energy efficiency.
• Expanding grants and loans in the agriculture sectors to help them shift to clean energy providers with fewer greenhouse gas emissions.

Democrats say they have path to deal on climate provisions in spending bill -Senate Democrats working on the climate provisions of the budget reconciliation package think they have a path to a deal that will include a methane fee and believe they will get buy-in from centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Democratic senators on Tuesday expressed optimism about nailing down an agreement on the bill’s climate provisions after several Democratic committee chairmen held a meeting on the issue at the Capitol on Monday evening. But while the methane fee is expected to be a part of the final package, a proposal to tax carbon emissions is viewed as much less likely. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Tuesday announced he feels confident that negotiators will be able to put together a “robust” package of climate proposals. “There’s going to be a very strong, robust climate package. And our goal is to meet the president’s goal, and there are different ways to get there,” he said. Democrats involved in the climate talks say the provisions will focus on investing in clean energy instead of punishing polluters, though the methane fee will be included as well. “There’s an amount of money that the administration thinks will reduce emissions to a level they think is important for us to achieve and a level of investment in infrastructure and [research and development],” said a senator who attended Monday’s meeting. The senator said money for energy efficient infrastructure, research and development, and tax credits for clean and renewable energy production would be packaged along with the methane fee. The carbon fee will be negotiated at a later date, possibly on the basis of legislation that passes the House, although House Democrats have so far shown less appetite for passing a carbon pricing plan than some key players in the Senate such as Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Gary Peters (D-Mich.), said Manchin, a key vote, was “very open to the conversation.” Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Tom Carper (D-Del.), said that “we’ve had an ongoing conversation with a number of our colleagues, including with Sen. Manchin’s staff,” about the methane fee. Carper argued a methane fee would take a major step toward meeting President Biden’s climate goals. Senate Commerce Committee Chairwoman Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said she expects “there will be something there” on a methane fee. Another Democratic senator briefed on the negotiations said the climate provisions are moving ahead on two tracks with the methane fee on a trajectory to being included in the final package and a carbon tax on a much less certain path. “The thing to pay attention to is we’ve been told is there will be two iterations. One is the climate spending piece, which is going on right now. ... And once that’s settled, there will be a separate emissions review,” and that will be the chance to add a carbon tax, said the lawmaker. The senator said negotiators are already counting revenue produced by the methane fee to pay for spending the Environment and Public Works Committee is counting on being included in the package to incentivize renewable energy production. If the methane fee is yanked out of the package at the last moment, the Environment and Public Works (EPW) panel “would have to find other revenues.” A third Democratic senator briefed on the talks confirmed that the methane fee is expected to be part of the final package. The source also said the climate provisions are going to be separated into two buckets, with the first package focused on tax breaks for clean and renewable energy sources, investments in clean energy infrastructure and research and development, and the methane fee. The first bucket will also include legislation to establish the Civilian Climate Corps, a priority of Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.). The second bucket will include more controversial proposals that have yet to be worked out — such as carbon pricing and a border adjustment fee for carbon intensive imports — and its future is much less certain.

Sanders faces difficult choice on slimmed-down budget bill - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is facing a gut-wrenching decision about whether to sign off on a whittled-down budget reconciliation package that is expected to fall short of his goal to expand Medicare and empower the federal government to negotiate lower prescription drug prices. Sanders has urged his party to be as bold as it was in the 1930s when President Franklin D. Roosevelt dramatically expanded the size and role of the federal government, but the package that is emerging after weeks of fitful negotiations won’t come close to that ambitious call to action. Getting Sanders, the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, on board with the scaled-down reconciliation bill is imperative for Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who can’t afford a single defection within his caucus in the 50-50 Senate. If Sanders agrees to the deal, other progressive Democrats in the House and Senate are likely to follow his lead and swallow their disappointment that the legislation no longer includes a clean electricity program and 12 weeks of paid family leave. Sanders is also viewed as the key to unlocking progressive votes in the House for a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which has been stuck in limbo while liberals wait for a deal they can accept with centrist Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in the upper chamber. But he won’t be thrilled to embrace the emerging deal based on the current trajectory of the talks. Over the past several weeks, the package has moved further and further from his ideals. “I think it will be a very bitter drink, if it goes down at all. There are certain red lines that have been crossed as far as Sanders is concerned,” said Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, who has held several fellowships in the Senate. “Everybody has been concerned about whether or not Manchin and Sinema would support this. The question now is whether Bernie Sanders will support it,” he said. Sanders initially wanted to spend $6 trillion on legislation that he viewed as a historic opportunity to address massive wealth disparities, expand Medicare benefits and lower the cost of prescription drugs. He finally agreed to a $3.5 trillion spending target after intense negotiations with Schumer and Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), a prominent moderate, on the budget panel. The legislation is now expected to top out between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion and won’t expand Medicare or lower prescription drug costs in the way Sanders envisioned. Negotiators are discussing leaving out Sanders’s proposal to expand Medicare to cover dental benefits and limiting Medicare’s power to negotiate lower prices for only a handful of drugs, instead of the broad spectrum of medications that Sanders wanted covered. The legislation is now expected to provide only four weeks of family and medical paid leave. Free community college, another top Sanders priority, is also on the chopping block. Sanders has made clear for months that expanded Medicare and lower prescription drug prices are his top two priorities, and both are close to getting watered down or pushed off the table entirely.Sanders has loudly called out the pharmaceutical industry for pouring millions of dollars into the fight to defeat prescription drug reform. He has also called out Manchin and Sinema publicly and battled Manchin behind closed doors in Democratic meetings.

Sanders draws red lines on Medicare expansion, drug pricing plan in spending bill - Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said on Tuesday that a deal on President Biden’s spending bill must expand Medicare and include a plan to lower the cost of prescription drugs. “Bottom line is that any reconciliation bill must include serious negotiations on the part of Medicare with the pharmaceutical industry, lower the cost of prescription drugs. That's what the American people want,” Sanders said. He added that a “serious reconciliation bill must include expanding Medicare to cover dental, hearing aids and eyeglasses.” Sanders’s decision to draw red lines, while speaking with reporters on Capitol Hill, underscores the headache facing Democratic leadership as they try to reach a deal that can unify their various factions. Sanders warned in a tweet over the weekend that the Medicare expansion provision couldn’t be dropped. But Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), speaking to reporters on Monday, reiterated he doesn’t support expanding Medicare amid concerns about the program's solvency. “My big concern right now is the 2026 deadline [for] Medicare insolvency and if no one’s concerned about that, I’ve got people — that’s a lifeline. Medicare and Social Security is a lifeline for people back in West Virginia, most people around the country,” Manchin warned. “You’ve got to stabilize that first before you look at basically expansion. So if we’re not being fiscally responsible, that’s a concern,” he added. Sanders declined to comment on Monday about Manchin’s comments. President Biden has warned that getting a deal that includes expanding Medicare to cover hearing, vision and dental would be a “reach.” In addition to potentially dropping Sanders’s plan to expand the benefits covered by Medicare, negotiators are discussing limiting Medicare’s power to negotiate lower prices for only a handful of drugs, instead of the broad spectrum of medications that Sanders wanted covered. The broader plan is opposed by a group of moderates, including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).

Schumer: Medicare, prescription drugs hold up final deal - Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) told reporters Tuesday that negotiators still haven’t reached agreement on language to expand Medicare benefits and lower the price of prescription drugs, two major pieces of their agenda, but insisted “a final deal is within reach.” Schumer signaled to reporters that Democrats are much closer to agreement on climate provisions, which he promised would make a “robust” contribution to addressing global warming. But he acknowledged that two of Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) top priorities, expanding Medicare and cutting the cost of prescription drugs, remain unresolved. The other holdups are a disagreement over creating a Medicaid-type program to expand health care coverage in states that opted out of expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, the length of a national paid family leave program and a proposal to empower the IRS to broadly review banking activity to find unreported tax obligations. “I believe that we will get this done and we will get it done soon,” Schumer said after a caucus meeting. “No one ever said that passing transformational legislation like this would be easy, but we are on track to get it done. “There is universal consensus in our caucus that we have to come to agreement despite the differences in views on many issues,” he added. “I believe a final deal is within reach.” Schumer said negotiators are making good progress on the climate provisions, despite a recent decision to drop the $150 billion Clean Electricity Performance Program, which was a top priority of progressives who want to tackle carbon emissions. “There’s going to be a very strong, robust climate package, and our goal is to meet the president’s goal, and there are different ways to get there,” he said. But he acknowledged that the dispute between Sanders and Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) over expanding Medicare benefits and empowering the federal government to negotiate lower prescription drug prices remains unresolved.

Progressives scramble to save top priorities from chopping block --Progressives are scrambling to save top priorities that risk being scaled down or axed from President Biden’s social spending plan as Democratic leadership and the White House race to get a deal. Democratic leadership is hoping liberals will embrace the bill, even though it’s substantially smaller than the $6 trillion originally envisioned by the left or even the $3.5 trillion approved under a budget resolution earlier this year. Liberal lawmakers are warning that Democrats need to make good on promises they made to voters, who delivered the party its first trifecta in roughly a decade during the 2020 election. “What we’re seeing now is a real clash. A, on one hand people want real change ... on the other hand, you’re seeing the powerful special interests saying sorry we want the status quo,” said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).   Though Democrats feel like they are on the cusp of clinching a deal on a framework for the spending bill, including a top-line number, many of progressives’ biggest priorities are still in flux. Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) warned this week that there couldn’t be a deal without progressive sign-off. “We’re pushing as hard as we can to get as much as we can,” she said. “Nobody should take progressive votes for granted. There is no deal until everything is agreed to by everybody.” Democrats are engaged in intense behind-the-scenes negotiations as they try to figure out a way to keep top progressive priorities in the bill, even if it’s smaller than they originally envisioned. Democrats, after closed-door caucus meetings on Tuesday, said that they were still ironing out paid family leave, climate change provisions and a tax targeting billionaires. Democrats are still trying to win over support from moderates for expansions of Medicaid and Medicare, with the party viewing the bill as its best shot in years to enact sweeping health care legislation. Sanders is drawing a red line around including expanding Medicare to cover hearing, vision and dental and giving Medicare the ability to negotiate lower drug prices. “Bottom line is that any reconciliation bill must include serious negotiations on the part of Medicare with the pharmaceutical industry, lower the cost of prescription drugs. That’s what the American people want,” Sanders said. He added that a “serious reconciliation bill must include expanding Medicare to cover dental, hearing aids and eyeglasses.” Progressive senators also say they are still in talks with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to try to get a Medicare drug negotiation plan. The House included a broad plan in its draft of the bill, but it has sparked pushback from moderates in both chambers. Progressives have already seen some key priorities sidelined, including higher corporate tax rates and the Clean Electricity Performance Program, which incentivizes companies toward clean energy sources. Paid family and medical leave could also be on the chopping block, after Biden already pared it down last week from the original 12 proposed weeks to just four weeks. Jayapal acknowledged on Tuesday that paid leave “does not look like it’s in a good place.” But Democrats are also increasingly feeling bullish that they will be able to get a deal on the climate provisions, including having a fee for methane emissions. “There’s going to be a very strong, robust climate package. And our goal is to meet the president’s goal and there are different ways to get there,” said Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). Democratic leaders are already preparing their rank and file to accept a compromise as the best they can get with their threadbare majorities in the House and Senate. “We are on the verge of something major, transformative, historic and bigger than anything else,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told Democrats during a closed-door caucus meeting in the Capitol on Tuesday morning, according to a source in the room. “Embrace it for what it is,” Pelosi said. “No bill is everything. We cannot miss this opportunity.”  Yet Pelosi and Jayapal appeared to offer different standards for what would be enough for House Democrats to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Dem hopes for infrastructure vote hit brick wall - Democratic leaders scrambling for an infrastructure vote this week to boost two Democratic gubernatorial candidates hit a brick wall Tuesday, when the head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus said liberals will oppose the popular public works bill until a larger benefits package is finalized. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) emerged from an hourlong meeting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) amplifying her long-held position: Progressives won’t support the bipartisan infrastructure bill, known as the BIF, before there’s agreement on every detail of the social spending package at the heart of President Biden’s domestic policy agenda. “Let’s vote both of them out at the same time, and I would even be willing to vote the BIF and then three hours later the reconciliation bill as long as we have full agreement from everybody — everyone on the House side, everyone on the Senate side,” Jayapal told reporters. Jayapal’s entrenched position is a stark repudiation of those Democrats seeking a quick infrastructure vote whenever negotiators reach agreement on a “framework” governing the larger social spending bill. And it’s sure to aggravate those lawmakers arguing that a victory on infrastructure will lend a jolt of momentum before next week’s elections. Recent polls show both the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races tightening, with Democrat Terry McAuliffe now essentially tied with Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia. National Democratic leaders are increasingly worried that a Republican upset in either state would deflate the base, energize the right and cripple the agenda of Biden, whose approval numbers are already underwater. Infrastructure spending is a popular issue with broad appeal across party lines, and a growing number of Democrats view the enactment of an enormous, $1.2 trillion bipartisan public works bill as an effective strategy for helping both campaigns at the eleventh hour. “A Congress that can get something done is going to make you feel better about where the country's going. A Democratic president who’s successful makes you win,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D), Virginia’s former lieutenant governor. “I think Terry could live without it. But of course it would help.” Passage of the infrastructure bill will “send a strong message to Virginia voters that voting for Democrats is gonna yield results,” added centrist Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), who has campaigned with McAuliffe.

Manchin loses sight of the power of Biden agenda - Beckley Register-Herald editorial - President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better agenda holds a cornucopia of programs, investments and promise that West Virginia – its cities and citizens – desperately need to create jobs, lower taxes, reduce everyday costs for working families and lift many of them out of poverty.Unfortunately, the Democrats are having to pare back the socially progressive bill by nearly half, from $3.5 trillion to $2 trillion, because, to a large degree, a stubborn and shortsighted Sen. Joe Manchin lost his focus on drafting public policy that would have benefited the working class and shored up a fraying network of support for the elderly and the young while remaking an economy back home suffering from the continued decline of the coal industry.It was going to be a supercharged investment in West Virginia and its people like this state has never known.Now, from all appearances, we will only get half measures – if that. And as such, West Virginia, no matter all that it has done to build this country, will remain stuck in its assigned spot near the back of the line – coughing on the last fumes of carbon extraction – thanks to Joe. You do not have to travel far in West Virginia to see the financial strain that high costs for health care and child care have placed on working West Virginians, to say nothing of the grinding effects of generational poverty on those who are barely scratching out a life, one meal at a time.The programs in Biden’s plan are investments in ordinary people, not tax breaks for the rich that Republicans favor. This is no trickle-down theory that fails to materialize, but instead a plan that provides direct investments in opportunities for families to become more stable economically, to improve their educational standing, to find their financial footing – all to be better positioned to deal with the challenges and responsibilities of the daily grind.There are programs to make community college free – an idea even Republicans in the West Virginia Legislature have already approved. If the full plan would go through, seniors would get free dental, hearing and vision coverage, and Medicare would be able to negotiate prescription drug costs. In addition, the Biden plan would speak directly to those in West Virginia who are struggling to make ends meet by lowering the costs of child care, providing for universal preschool and allowing 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave.There is an extension of the health care tax credits and of the Child Tax Credit expansion that already has lifted millions around the country out of poverty. There is also a plank to permanently extend the American Rescue Plan’s increase to the Earned-Income Tax Credit that has benefited millions of those – cooks, cashiers, servers and selfless child care providers – who have kept our country up and running during a pandemic that has dragged on for a year and a half, now.Creation of the Rural Partnership Program, part of the Biden plan, would give West Virginia communities the tools necessary to attract high-paying jobs and long-term job growth. In addition, there would be job training for careers in construction, clean energy and health care, among others, while addressing the increased demand for teachers, pre-school through high school. There is more, much more, as you would expect from a multi-trillion-dollar bill that promises to retool the U.S. economy unlike anything since the New Deal of the 1930s. The Build Back Better legislation offers a once-in-a-generation chance for states like West Virginia to reboot. And yet Joe is turning his back on it and, by extension, on us.The irony, of course, is that because of Manchin’s intransigence, the bill and its impact will be sapped of its strength, virtually assuring that West Virginia will remain reliant on federal handouts – cemented at least for the next generation toward the back of the pack. The senator is wrong on this one – grievously so.

White House eyes new climate change strategies in Biden bill - The White House is zeroing in on a package of clean energy strategies for President Joe Biden’s big domestic policy bill that officials believe could reach similar greenhouse gas emission reduction goals as an initial proposal that was quashed by opposition from a centrist Democrat. The Biden administration discussed the proposals Monday at the White House with the leaders of about a dozen environmental and justice groups, according to a senior administration official who requested anonymity to share the plans. A new approach was needed after coal-state Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., rejected the White House’s earlier clean energy plan. The emerging proposals would expand grants and loans in the agriculture and industrial sectors to help them shift to clean energy providers with fewer greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming, the official said. There would also be new, refundable home improvement tax credits for tapping solar and other renewable energy sources. The official said momentum was building as the group coalesced around the new ideas. The new strategies come as the president and Democrats in Congress are struggling to wrap up talks on Biden’s now-scaled-back package of at least $1.75 trillion in social services and climate change investments before he departs later this week for two global summits overseas.  A cornerstone of Biden’s climate change strategy had been a clean energy plan that would have rewarded power providers that use clean sources and penalized those that don’t. But that approach had to be scrapped when Manchin objected. With Republicans fully opposed to Biden’s big package, the president needs the support of all Democrats in the 50-50 split Senate, with no votes to spare. The senior administration official said the administration was not wedded to one clean-energy strategy as a “silver bullet.” Instead, officials are coalescing around a new package of strategies that could potentially achieve similar emission reduction goals without adding new costs to the overall package. A plan backed by Democrats offers tax credits and spending to boost renewable power such as wind and solar and sharply increase the number of electric vehicles. Advocates think the plan, plus executive branch action such as a pending Environmental Protection Agency rule to curb methane emissions, and action by states, should be enough to meet or nearly meet Biden’s goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, compared with 2005 levels. Biden said at a town hall last week that he expects to spend the $150 billion that had been targeted for the clean-energy program on climate programs. Advocates say the money would most likely be used as block grants to states to pursue their own emissions cuts. It’s unclear if the new proposals would be acceptable to Manchin, whose home state is a leading producer of coal and natural gas. He has preferred an approach that does not favor one industry over the other as coal begins to be phased out for cleaner energy sources. The new strategies appear to use more incentives to encourage clean energy use rather than penalties for failing to make the transition, which could help win over Manchin. But climate change advocates have argued that penalties are needed to get industries to more quickly turn to cleaner sources as the world races to confront the dire threats of climate change. A major fight emerged in recent days over a proposal to include a so-called “methane fee” in the budget package. The fee would be imposed on energy companies that leak methane pollution during oil and gas production. Methane, the main component of natural gas, is a leading cause of global warming, especially in the short term. We negotiated a methane fee, we tried to do it in a way that Sen. Manchin and his folks would be more receptive of, and we’re still talking about it and continuing to work through it,” Sen. Tom Carper, D-Del., told reporters Monday. Manchin said Tuesday he is talking to Carper and others about the methane fee, but does not want to “punish” energy companies “just for the sake of punishing” them. Some House Democrats from Texas also oppose the methane fee, saying it could cost thousands of jobs in the energy industry and increase energy costs for Americans. Supporters called the fee a common-sense provision that only kicks in when methane pollution exceeds agreed-upon targets. The fee would give the oil and gas industry a financial incentive to capture methane rather than burn or “flare” excess gas produced at well sites, supporters say.

White House sets climate spending at up to $555B – - The White House has told allies in Congress that climate change programs in Democrats' spending bill will range between $500 billion and $555 billion, according to four sources familiar with the negotiations. While the package will exclude Democrats' proposed system of payments and penalties to push power companies to increase renewable energy, the plan being developed will allow President Joe Biden to head to the global climate talks next week in Glasgow, Scotland with a framework for the largest-ever U.S. investment in fighting climate change. "We continue to engage with Congress on this incredibly important topic and see the ball move forward. We feel that the conversations have been accelerating in the right direction," a senior administration official said in a Tuesday call with reporters that did not discuss the topline climate figures. Passing legislation would help Biden make good on his pledge to cut U.S. planet-warming emissions 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels this decade. While the climate total is less than the $600 billion in Democrats' original $3.5 trillion plan, it comes at a crucial moment for Biden, who is eager to demonstrate U.S. leadership on climate change. Democrats have worried that the U.S. delegation would arrive at the United Nations talks with no domestic agreement on how to address climate change, a failure that would damage the nation's credibility on climate while giving other countries an excuse to do less. That scenario seemed likely after Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) objection to a $150 billion proposal to advance clean power threw the climate package into a tailspin. "Our goal has always been send the president to Glasgow with a very strong position," Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) told reporters. It remains to be seen, however, whether Democrats and the White House can agree on an overall framework for the broader social spending plan. Those talks are ongoing, though climate hawks in Congress believe having that structure in place before Glasgow would be enough for Biden to credibly back up his climate vows. "You need to be able to convince other countries the U.S. is on track," Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told POLITICO. "How much we can provide that assurance will depend on these negotiations in Congress." One person familiar with the negotiations said new initiatives to replace the clean power program Manchin opposed include grants, loans and tax credits to speed decarbonization of industrial sectors like steel, cement and aluminum. Other provisions include manufacturing credits to buoy domestic solar and wind energy supply chains, with those investments targeted toward communities with automobile and energy production histories; expanding grants and loans for rural electric cooperatives to foster more clean energy additions; and increasing agricultural grants and loans to encourage clean energy adoption.

Climate spending in reconciliation could near $600B - The climate section of Democrats’ social spending package is starting to come into focus, but major question marks remain as lawmakers try to iron out the specifics before President Biden heads to Scotland for U.N. climate talks.While lawmakers are still negotiating top-line spending, the climate change provisions of the reconciliation package are likely to total more than $500 billion, a benchmark first reported by Axios last night.A source in the advocacy community familiar with negotiations confirmed to E&E News that the number is “closer to $600 billion,” accounting for environmental justice provisions and water infrastructure language.Meanwhile, yet another climate proposal — the carbon border adjustment — is all but dead, according to Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), a key advocate for the policy. Democrats are also still haggling over the methane fee opposed by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and moderate Texas House Democrats, with oil and gas groups and Republicans ramping up a lobbying campaign against it.It makes for a mixed picture, as the package — expected to fall between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion in total spending — begins to solidify. Climate could ultimately make up the biggest single chunk of the bill, representing a historic investment in emissions reduction, but the mandate and pricing policies that would ensure those reductions are falling from Democrats’ grasp.“We’ve got a whole second round of negotiation on emissions that begins once we get this deal,” Whitehouse said yesterday. “Once we get the framework on topline spending, there’s a closing negotiation on emissions.” Democratic leaders have been hoping to secure a deal on the broad contours of a reconciliation package this week, which could potentially allow a House vote on the bipartisan infrastructure package, including a five-year reauthorization of surface transportation programs.But the timing is up in the air, despite Democrats’ insistence that they will have something to back up Biden’s emissions targets when he heads to United Nations climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland, next month, with a range of other outstanding issues for negotiators to deal with, from health care to new taxes on corporations and the rich.Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.) said yesterday he has a temporary reauthorization measure ready to go if Congress does not reach a deal on both measures by Sunday when transportation programs expire.For now, the exact total climate spending, according to lawmakers and sources familiar with negotiations, is still a moving target. It would include a suite of clean energy tax incentives, but it’s not clear how much that would cost or how it would be structured, amid an ongoing public spat between Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Chair Richard Neal (D-Mass.).

Biden calls on Democrats to embrace his framework for a social policy and climate bill. - President Biden pleaded with House Democrats on Thursday to embrace his “framework” for a $1.85 trillion economic and environmental bill, saying its fate would help determine that of his presidency and his party’s hold on Congress, and its success would restore the nation’s standing on the world stage. But the president’s appeal appeared to have failed to break the logjam among Democrats. Crucial details of the legislation remained in flux, and progressives declared they would not bow to pressure to quickly throw their support behind a separate $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package that has already passed the Senate. By Thursday night, House leaders had scrapped plans for a vote on the public works measure, and the chamber approved a short-term extension of transportation programs through early December, a sign that passage of both the infrastructure bill and the domestic policy plan may be far off. It was a setback after an audacious gamble by Mr. Biden, who had delayed his departure for a trip to Europe to try to nail down an accord on his domestic agenda. He used a morning meeting at the Capitol to attempt to rally House Democrats around the emerging deal. “We have a framework that will get 50 votes in the United States Senate,” Mr. Biden told the group, according to a person familiar with his private remarks. “I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that the House and Senate majorities and my presidency will be determined by what happens in the next week.” Later, in public remarks at the White House, Mr. Biden hailed the plan as “historic.” “No one got everything they wanted, including me,” he said in the East Room before departing on a trip to Rome. “But that’s what compromise is. That’s consensus. And that’s what I ran on.” House leaders hoped the framework would be enough to persuade the chamber’s most liberal members that Congress was on the verge of passing a truly progressive package — and that those liberals, in turn, would join more moderate and conservative Democrats to send the infrastructure bill to the president for his signature. “We badly need a vote on both of these measures,” Mr. Biden privately told lawmakers on Thursday morning, according to the person familiar with his remarks. But liberals were still unsatisfied with a plan that was clearly unfinished — and that omitted many of their cherished priorities. “What I would say is you have the outline of a very significant piece of legislation — I want us to make it better,” said Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent and Budget Committee chairman. The change of course on holding an infrastructure vote on Thursday was a sign that the last-minute visit by Mr. Biden had not been enough to assuage progressives worried about the fate of the economic and environmental bill. “Members of our caucus will not vote for the infrastructure bill without the Build Back Better Act,” Representative Pramila Jayapal, Democrat of Washington and the chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said in a statement that endorsed the president’s outline. “We will work immediately to finalize and pass both pieces of legislation through the House together.” Two crucial holdouts, Senators Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, had yet to publicly commit to voting for the social policy legislation.

Crucial Elements of Spending Plan Remain in Flux After Biden’s Appeal to Democrats - The New York Times - President Biden went to the Capitol to lobby for a revised social spending and climate package, telling Democrats in private, “We badly need a vote.” The plan leaves out several major proposals, including paid family leave and lowering drug costs. Oct. 28, 2021 President Biden rolled out his $1.85 trillion framework for an environment and social policy plan with great fanfare on Thursday, pitching it as a package that could unite his fractious party. But in reality, the proposal was more of an outline of a bill whose major components and key details were still being hammered out. Even after directing members to an early version of the plan’s legislative text, Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California suggested there were additional changes to come, including her desire to add back a proposed federal paid family and medical leave program that Mr. Biden omitted. White House officials and top Democrats also continued to negotiate over a costly tax provision, a plan to lower the cost of prescription drugs, and a proposal to allow the Internal Revenue Service access to bank account information to help crack down on tax cheats, among other components that could have a large impact on the size and shape of the plan. For instance, a fact sheet released by the White House omitted a provision that is a top priority of lawmakers from New York, New Jersey and other high-tax jurisdictions that would lift the cap on how much in state and local taxes people can deduct from their federal taxes. Lawmakers from those states have warned that they could not support the bill without its inclusion. Representative Richard E. Neal of Massachusetts, the chairman of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, said that it was likely that the final measure would, in fact, include the so-called SALT provision, which is likely to cost hundreds of billions of dollars and would amount to a large tax cut for upper-middle-class people. Mr. Biden’s outline also did not include the bank reporting provision, after Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, a crucial swing vote, expressed concerns about it, but an administration official said the White House was still working with him to win his approval for adding it to package. Negotiators were optimistic about reaching a deal on the measure, which is estimated to generate substantial sums to pay for the broader legislation. And an intensive set of talks continued on prescription drug pricing after Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and centrists in the House effectively rejected a proposal to allow Medicare to negotiate the price of medications. A narrower provision Ms. Sinema had been discussing with White House officials — which would have limited drug price negotiations to a small subset of outpatient medications like chemotherapy drugs that had passed their period of patent exclusivity — was left out of Mr. Biden’s announcement on Thursday. But Democrats were toiling to restore it. “The prescription drug deal on the table isn’t everything I want, but it’s not a fig leaf,” Senator Chris Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, wrote on Twitter. “It’s likely $100B in cuts to drug company profits with the money to be used to cut out of pocket costs for seniors in half.” Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent and Budget Committee chairman, also vowed to keep pressing for a broader expansion of Medicare, after his initial proposal to add hearing, vision and dental benefits was cut back to only cover hearing.

Merkley, Warren and Markey sound alarm over 'dirty' hydrogen provision in climate deal - A trio of Democratic senators are sounding an alarm over what they say is an effort to add language to the budget reconciliation bill that would create new incentives for hydrogen produced from fossil fuels, which they fear would undercut the broader goals of climate legislation. “As policymakers, we must be attentive to the reality that not all hydrogen is clean and reject efforts to further subsidize dirty hydrogen in the Build Back Better Act,” Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.) wrote in a letter to Democratic leaders released Wednesday afternoon. They argued that while hydrogen has been touted as a “zero-emission” alternative energy source, “recent peer reviewed science has found that fossil fuel-based hydrogen might have greater greenhouse gas impacts than traditional fossil fuels.” The lawmakers acknowledged that hydrogen might someday be an important source of clean energy but asserted the technology isn’t ready yet. “There’s just one problem: Current hydrogen production is not at all ‘clean.’ In fact, 94 percent of hydrogen produced in the [United States] comes from fossil fuels,” the lawmakers wrote in the letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). A group of House progressives also signed the letter, including Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) and Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.). They noted that so-called green hydrogen, which is made by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen molecules and is therefore considered 100 percent renewable, accounts for less than 0.02 percent of global hydrogen production. They warned that blue hydrogen, which is produced from splitting natural gas into hydrogen and carbon dioxide, pollutes the atmosphere as much as or more than traditional fossil fuels. “Blue hydrogen production may result in higher methane emissions than natural gas, diesel, oil, and coal,” they wrote. “This is an extremely important finding because ‘we cannot achieve the Paris Agreement targets without immediately reducing methane,’ according to a United Nations report published this year.” The lawmakers also warned that hydrogen harvested from a process known as steam methane reformation emits nitrogen oxides, particulates and carbon monoxide, which have all been linked to negative health effects. “The expansion of fossil-fuel based hydrogen would inevitably harm disproportionately low-income communities and communities of color because these are the same communities which have carried the weight of fossil fuel pollution for generations,” they wrote. A group of environmental organizations, including Food & Water Watch, 350.org, Alliance for Affordable Energy, Chesapeake Climate Action Network, Earthjustice, Friends of the Earth, Ocean Conservancy and the Sierra Club, also endorsed the letter.

Liberals defy Pelosi, say they'll block infrastructure bill - Liberals on Thursday vowed to block a popular infrastructure bill — a central piece of President Biden’s domestic agenda — just hours after the president urged their support and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced plans to bring the bipartisan proposal to the House floor for a vote the same day. The move by dozens of members in the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) was hardly a departure of tactics: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who chairs the group, has said for months that liberals would oppose the infrastructure bill until there was a concrete agreement with Democratic centrists on a larger social spending package. Still, their decision to hold that line constitutes a remarkable escalation of the high-stakes power struggle between Pelosi and the progressive members of her own caucus, who said they simply can’t back the infrastructure bill without greater assurances that a larger social spending bill will contain their priorities. In an exceptional interaction Thursday, Pelosi walked into a strategic meeting of the CPC, only to leave a short time later without speaking to the group. Jayapal emerged not long afterwards to explain the group’s position. With a number of issues still unresolved in the social spending bill — and parts of the text yet to be written — Jayapal said liberals are sticking with their initial strategy, even if it means bucking leadership to delay the vote on the bipartisan infrastructure framework, often referred to as the BIF, until next week. “There are ... too many 'no' votes for the BIF to pass today. However, we are committed to staying here until we get this Build Back Better Act done, get the legislative text,” Jayapal said after huddling in the basement of the Capitol with other members of the CPC. Shortly after the Progressive Caucus meeting ended, Democratic leaders posted 1,684 pages of legislative text, reflecting Biden's priorities, to the Rules Committee's website. And Pelosi quickly leaned on that development to argue that the liberals' concerns should be satisfied — a suggestion that the Speaker intends to plow ahead with Thursday's vote and dare the liberals to sink it. "People have said, 'I want to see text.' The text is up," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol. Yet the published language Pelosi was referring to, posted just before she took the stage, does not include the policy areas where divisions remain and negotiations continue. It's those final, unresolved provisions that the liberals are waiting to see — an argument Jayapal amplified several times on Thursday. "We understand that it's 90 percent written; that 10 percent should just hopefully be very quick," she said. But extending an olive branch to Biden and leaders, Jayapal said the CPC later Thursday will back a resolution endorsing Biden’s $1.75 trillion framework, which was rolled out by the White House Thursday morning. “With the framework that is there, we can endorse that in principle, but we do need to have the legislative text and we will vote both bills through together,” she added. Other liberals delivered similar praise for the policy, even as they broke with leadership on timing and strategy. “The investments that have been outlined are the things that CPC have been fighting for. They exist because we have held the line — of course we endorse them,” progressive Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) told The Hill. “We have full support for the Build Back Better Act.” In another concession, Jayapal also softened the stipulations surrounding their support for infrastructure, saying they would no longer require the Senate to vote on the social benefits bill beforehand, but would trust Biden's assurances that all 50 senators are on board. "We are not asking for it to be passed in the Senate," she said. "He is our president. He told us that he believes he has the commitment to get this done in the Senate. And we are going to believe the president of the United States."

Democrats release text of budget reconciliation package - Congressional Democrats released details this afternoon of how they’ll spend $550 billion for climate programs in President Biden’s emerging budget reconciliation package as well as other environmental policies. The 1,600-page package spells out $1.7 trillion in spending across a host of domestic priorities. The House Rules Committee is taking up the bill this afternoon, but floor action has yet to be scheduled. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said changes could still emerge to a bill that has been under intense negotiation for months. She said those revisions would eventually come in a manager’s package. “For those who have said they want to see text, it is there for you. Let’s see what consensus emerges,” said the speaker without offering a timeline for passage. Pelosi released the bill after President Biden visited Capitol Hill earlier today to outline a framework for the reconciliation plan. He urged Democrats to get behind it and the pending bipartisan, Senate-passed infrastructure bill (Greenwire, Oct. 28). Biden is now traveling to Europe, where he will attend the COP 26 climate conference and wants to tout momentum behind both bills, which have major provisions aimed at curbing emissions and building resilience. A vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, passed over the summer by the Senate, was still on the House schedule today. But Pelosi this afternoon declined to say whether there would be a vote amid opposition from some progressives who have argued it should move in tandem with the broader budget package.House Natural Resources Committee leaders were trumpeting provisions on energy and the environment that have survived the talks, including:

• A provision blocking fossil fuel leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
• A provision blocking offshore drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
• A total of $6 billion for coastal and Great Lakes restoration and climate resilience projects.
• $1 billion for hardrock mining cleanup and other reforms.
• A provision requiring the Interior Department to hold offshore wind lease sales in federal waters around the eastern Gulf of Mexico and off the coasts of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida.
• A provision increasing oil and gas royalty rates and fees.

What's in Democrats' new $1.75 trillion social spending and climate bill? - CBS News– After protracted negotiations between congressional Democrats and President Biden over the details of his domestic policy agenda, the White House on Thursday rolled out a revamped framework that aims to expand the nation's social safety net and combat climate change. The cost of the package has been whittled down from its original $3.5 trillion price tag to $1.75 trillion over a decade. Despite the drop in cost, it is opposed by Republicans, so Democrats are trying to enact the plan through a budgetary process called reconciliation, which would allow it to clear the Senate solely with Democratic support. Democratic leaders have spent weeks haggling with their colleagues over the size and scope of the package, working to bridge the gaps between a pair of moderate Democratic Senators, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, and progressives in the House. But after releasing the trimmed-down framework, President Biden expressed confidence it would win support from all Democrats. Whether the plan does, indeed, garner the backing from all corners of the Democratic Party remains to be seen, as cut from the framework were key priorities for some lawmakers. Here are some of the major items in the framework for the bill, according to the White House, as well as some initiatives that have been dropped over the course of talks. This list will be updated as negotiations continue.

• Fighting climate change. Combating climate change and slowing the rate at which Earth warms will mean transitioning away from fossil fuels, the major source of greenhouse gas emissions. The new framework unveiled by the White House contains $555 billion for climate and clean energy investments. The legislation would provide tax credits to Americans buying new electric vehicles that could provide up to $12,500 in incentives to some families to drop gas-guzzling vehicles. New tax incentives designed to encourage the installation of solar panels on American homes will also be offered. Manchin objected to a $150 billion "clean electricity performance program" contained in the original proposal, which would pay utility companies that increase their renewable energy supplies by 4% per year and fine companies that don't hit this benchmark. He has argued that companies are already doing this, so there's no need to incentivize them to augment their use of renewables.
• Child care and universal pre-K. Mr. Biden's framework includes $400 billion for child care and preschool through programs funded for six years. In addition to expanding access to universal preschool for all 3- and 4-year-olds, the plan also limits child care costs for some families to no more than 7% of income. Parents must adhere to work requirements to qualify.
• Medicare expansion. This heavily debated provision would expand Medicare to cover hearing services, but the framework eliminated a proposal for Medicare to also include dental and vision benefits, a key priority for Senator Bernie Sanders. Manchin believes the program's solvency should be addressed before it is expanded.
• Extended child tax credit .Democrats expanded the child tax credit for 2021 in their $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief plan and wanted to extend it through 2025. But Mr. Biden's updated framework extends the child tax credit for one year, for 2022, which the White House said will provide more than 35 million households up to $3,600 in tax cuts per child. Under the enhancement, families receive $3,600 per child under age 6, and $3,000 per child ages 6 to 18. Most families receive monthly payments of either $250 or $300 per child.
• Housing, health care and immigration provisions. Mr. Biden's framework includes $150 billion to build or improve more than 1 million new affording housing units and help with rental and down payment assistance. It also makes investments in maternal health, community violence initiatives, Native communities and supply chain resilience.For health care, the plan would lower premiums by an average of $600 per person for more than 9 million Americans who purchase insurance through the Affordable Care Act's marketplace, and provide coverage for up to 4 million Americans who are currently uninsured.

What got cut from the bill:

• Two free years of community college. While Mr. Biden's domestic policy proposal initially included two years of free community college for all students regardless of income, the plan was dropped from the framework unveiled by the White House.
• Cutting prescription drug prices A key provision in a bill from House Democrats was aimed at helping to slash prescription drug prices. Americans on average pay two to three times as much as people in other countries for prescription drugs, according to the White House. Among other things, the legislation would have allowed Medicare to negotiate drug prices, but the new framework did not include this proposal. Medicare is currently prohibited by law from negotiating for the best deal.
• Paid family and medical leave Mr. Biden initially proposed 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave, but the benefit was then scaled down to four weeks during negotiations. In the end, though, paid family leave was cut out entirely of the compromise proposal put forth by the White House.This is likely to rankle some Senate Democrats, who had been pushing hard for its inclusion.

National paid family and medical leave reportedly cut from US reconciliation package – as it happened

• Democrats’ proposal to establish a national paid family and medical leave program has likely been cut from the reconciliation package, according to multiple reports. If the proposal is eliminated, it will almost certainly outrage advocates who have noted that the US woefully trails its peer nations when it comes to providing paid leave to its citizens.
• Centrist Senator Joe Manchin voiced criticism of Democrats’ proposed tax on billionaires to help pay for the reconciliation package. “I don’t like it. I don’t like the connotation that we’re targeting different people,” Manchin said of the proposal, which would impact only 700 US taxpayers.
• Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats are “within arm’s length” of a deal on the reconciliation package.“We are hopeful that we can come to a framework agreement by the end of today,” the Democratic leader said this morning. But as Manchin’s comments demonstrate, there are several important outstanding issues about what to include in the bill and how to pay for it.
• House speaker Nancy Pelosi has scheduled a rules committee hearing tomorrow to discuss the Build Back Better agenda. The hearing seems to be Pelosi’s attempt to advance the negotiations, as Democrats look to finalize the deal before Joe Biden leaves for Europe tomorrow.

Democrats seek tweaks to $1.75T framework --Democrats are working to see how bendable the White House's framework for the social-spending package is. Lawmakers are hoping to make adjustments to the framework released Thursday in areas that include health care, climate and paid family leave. But it could be a challenge given the positions of moderate Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), as well as a desire from the Biden administration to promptly enact both the Democratic-only spending package and a Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill. “No one got everything they wanted, including me, but that’s what compromise is,” Biden said Thursday in a speech at the White House about the framework. The framework released Thursday still includes items such as universal pre-school and clean energy incentives. But it scales back and eliminates some of Biden and Democratic lawmakers’ spending and tax priorities, reducing the size of the package to $1.75 trillion, plus an additional $100 billion for immigration reforms that meet Senate budget rules. The changes are designed to address the concerns of Manchin and Sinema, who opposed the $3.5 trillion top-line number that Democrats had previously been eyeing. No Republicans are expected to vote for the package, meaning that every Senate Democrat and nearly every House Democrat will need to back it for it to pass. The framework comes at a time when Biden’s approval rating is underwater, and Democrats are trying to show that they can govern. Democrats are seeking to act quickly on the spending package. A source familiar with the administration’s thinking poured cold water on the idea of significantly altering the framework given the urgency of moving the social-spending bill and the infrastructure bill. The administration is getting to a point where it feels that there is a choice between the framework and nothing, the source said. At the same time, the White House will still push for Biden’s agenda items that were left out of the framework during the rest of the president’s time in office, the source said. Democratic lawmakers have broadly been positive about the framework and are eyeing votes on the social-spending package and the infrastructure bill as soon as next week. Still, lawmakers are trying to see if they can manage to fit some of their agenda items into the downsized package. “We have endorsed the framework, I just want to be clear about that. We have also said that we would welcome anything that is additive that people are able to negotiate that will get 50 votes in the Senate,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. The House Rules Committee on Thursday released legislative text that’s in line with the framework, but committee chairman Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) noted that the text isn’t final. “Most of it is a real bill, [but] there's gotta be some tweaks,” One key addition that many Democrats are still pushing for is including provisions to lower the cost of prescription drugs.

Chaotic day ends with progressives blocking infrastructure vote - After a wild day on Capitol Hill that featured a rare presidential lobbying effort, the release of a massive social spending bill and a delayed floor vote, President Biden heads to a global climate summit without a major environmental victory and with Democrats still searching for legislative success. It was a deflating moment in the monthslong effort to pass both a bipartisan infrastructure package and a partisan social spending bill with an eye-opening total price tag of $2.7 trillion. Nonetheless, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) insisted that matters were on track. “The good news is that most Members who were not prepared for a yes vote today have expressed their commitment to support the” bipartisan infrastructure package, she said in a “Dear Colleague” letter last night. The biggest problem for the party at the moment is that a sizable portion of progressive Democrats aren’t backing off their demand that the infrastructure bill move in tandem with the social spending bill. Assurances from President Biden and Pelosi that both would be passed did not move them. The Congressional Progressive Caucus, a collection of about 100 House members, announced yesterday that it would continue withholding votes for the infrastructure bill until it can move in tandem with the just-released budget reconciliation package, which the group said it would support. “We will work immediately to finalize and pass both pieces of legislation through the House together,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the co-chair of the CPC. House Democratic leaders had hoped to clear the Senate-passed infrastructure bill yesterday after releasing the text of a $1.7 billion budget reconciliation package (E&E News PM, Oct. 28).Biden himself traveled to Capitol Hill to urge action on both bills before heading to Europe, where he is expected to participate in COP 26 climate talks in coming days. Both bills contain major climate provisions (Greenwire, Oct. 28).The progressives’ intransigence forced Congress to again pass a 30-day extension of current surface transportation programs that otherwise expire Sunday. Biden is expected to sign it into law. Democrats had hoped the latest in a series of extensions would not be needed as the programs would be reauthorized for five years in the infrastructure bill.

The Reconciliation Bill’s Gutting Is What Happens When Your Party Is Addicted to Corporate Money - The almost complete destruction of Democrats’ agenda in the reconciliation bill suggests that, despite some rhetoric to the contrary, the party is still intent on fulfilling Joe Biden’s promise to donors that “nothing would fundamentally change.”Democratic Party leaders on Thursday united around a plan to halve their economic agenda, which had already been nearly halved a few months ago. The full loaf is really a quarter loaf, but at this point, it’s actually less than that, because they also slashed promised regulatory and tax provisions that might have reduced medicine prices, provided workers some paid leave, and made billionaires start paying taxes.In the coming days, we will learn more of the granular details in the 1,600-plus-page bill — but the overall agreement amid a flood of industry campaign cash is an illuminating moment: it reveals the outer limits of possibility for corporate politics, and the human costs of those politics.In general, the reason the Democratic Party always sounds so helplessly incoherent is because its lawmakers are trying to simultaneously appease their corporate donors and look like they are fulfilling their public promises to fix problems created by those corporate donors.In most cases, this is impossible. You cannot protect pharmaceutical and fossil fuel industry donors and also reduce the price of medicine and solve the climate crisis. If you try to pretend you can do both, the donors always eventually win out. So you end up talking in circles, complaining accurately about the problems while doing nothing to solve them, and then portraying marginal victories as huge wins to voters who must wonder why their lives aren’t improving.The so-called Build Back Better legislation embodies this conundrum. There are laudable provisions in the framework released by the White House, such as anexpansion of Medicaid, universal pre-K, subsidized child care, the extension of the child tax credit, tougher penalties for employers who violate labor laws, andspending on clean energy programs. These are significant steps beyond the incrementalism and corporatism of the Obama presidency.However, the deal also seems designed to honor the one campaign promise that President Joe Biden appears most intent on fulfilling: the pledge to his donors that “nothing would fundamentally change” in our economy when he is president.Ultimately, Democrats’ reconciliation bill was stripped of most provisions to alter the structure of the economy to try to make it more fair and less ecocidal.While there are certainly a few decent tax measures in the legislation, business donors and their lobbyists convinced Democrats to remove more far-reaching proposals to force the rich and corporate America to significantly sacrifice or pitch in more.Gone from the current bill is paid family leave, free community college, and a plan to allow Medicare to negotiate lower prices for prescription drugs — the latter of which polls showed was the single most popular proposal in the entire bill. They also limited a robust expansion of Medicare benefits, while funneling more money into subsidies that prop up the corporate health insurance industry (and, obviously, there’s no longer even scant mention of Biden’s promised public health insurance option or lowering the Medicare age).Oh, and they excised the truly vital climate measures at the very moment thatscientists are warning of an impending ecological disaster — and even after Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said passing a full climate agenda was absolutely necessary for the survival of future generations.As the bill is reviewed, we will inevitably learn of some genuinely grotesque giveaways added into the package — we can already see how its authorstransformed a much-needed methane fee into a fossil fuel subsidy and slipped in abailout for profitable microchip corporations that have offshored jobs and put their profits into stock buybacks that enrich executives.There’s also a good chance that, while Democrats plead poverty on funding other programs to help low-income families, they will also move to make sure wealthy homeowners in affluent coastal congressional districts get wildly regressive new tax breaks they don’t need, and then claim the giveaway is really all about helping the middle class (it’s not).After weeks of inexplicably refusing to make clear demands about what they wanted in the reconciliation bill, the Congressional Progressive Caucus promptlysurrendered Thursday (with only a performative process objection) — and they capitulated even though it’s not clear their party leaders are completely finished shredding the bill. Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, the monsters who have rampaged through Washington and helped their donors whittle the bill down this far, haven’t actually endorsed the deal yet — so there may be still more pounds of flesh.But the crime here is in what this framework already lacks.If this was one of many pieces of legislation, then perhaps we could rest assured that all the urgently needed provisions left on the cutting room floor would be quickly taken up, debated, and passed. But because Democrats have refused to eliminate the filibuster, this reconciliation bill likely represents the last best hope for major legislation in Biden’s first term.

Affordable housing is critical infrastructure — its funding doesn't show it -"It’s fascinating that we can target investment to corporate America, but when it comes to everyday folks who are struggling to make ends meet, we don’t have any money,” I told members of the House Financial Services Committee. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) invited me to testify during the hearing “Building Back Better: Examining the Need for Investments in America's Housing and Financial Infrastructure,” but the conversation shifted from the nation’s housing crisis to gripes about cost. I explained that this was our opportunity to invest in the very communities that were on the frontlines during the pandemic who ensured so many of us could be comfortable in our own homes; that the cost must meet the scale of the problem. And yet, here we are. Currently, Congressional leaders are negotiating what critical programs should be cut from the Build Back Better Act to appease the interests of just two senators, and housing is on the chopping block — despite the impact housing has on all other parts of the legislation. As it currently stands, the bill would provide critical investments in affordable housing, including new resources for public housing, housing for seniors and people with disabilities, and a historic boost to rental assistance that would allow up to 1.7 million people to afford safe and stable housing. The bill would support hundreds of thousands of first-generation homebuyers, who are disproportionately people of color, with down payment assistance, helping to close the racial wealth gap. It would also invest in community-led projects that create shared amenities, generate local economic activity, and ensure more people than ever live in communities of opportunity. Research shows that these long-overdue investments would improve overall health and safety, improve life outcomes for children, increase economic stability and transform communities . Like air to breathe and food to eat, safe shelter is a basic human need. It is not surprising then that the proposals are popular among voters across party lines. A recent poll by the Morning Consult and Politico found that 70 percent of voters supported affordable housing investments, stronger levels of support than other Build Back Better priorities. These programs are at risk, however, because leaders in Washington fail to understand how critical housing is to every aspect of our lives. They view housing as simply a supply issue, ignoring how housing policies have shaped the physical landscape of inequality through segregation, disinvestment and exclusion and have inhibited millions from accessing past infrastructure investments.

US budget reconciliation bill aims to recapture unused green cards, backlogged Indians to benefit if passed - Times of India -On cards, in the US budget reconciliation bill (or the draft Build Back Better Act) that was released recently, is a proposal for recapturing unused family and employment-based green card numbers that were unused from 1992 through 2021. If this proposal does go through, it will help thousands of backlogged skilled Indians, who have a waiting period of 84 years to get an employment-based green card, as per a study by Cato Institute. However, the final outcome of this proposal is still uncertain as it needs to pass both in the House and the Senate. A recent tweet by Dr Pranav Singh touched a chord among the Indian diaspora in the US. He has returned to India and his sentiments relating to the broken US immigration system resonated with many. He tweeted, “As a US critical care physician, if I decided to leave in the midst of a pandemic to come back to India, this is the number one reason. Systemic racism is entrenched in the US immigration system and Indians are the most marginalised legal immigrants due to segregationist country caps,”His tweet added that “My wife who is the only endocrinologist in our rural Iowa hospital will be a loss to her patients and community. No one seems to care, so neither do we now.” The last sentence was typed in bold expressing his anguish. TOI has also interacted with several others, who have either returned home to India or have migrated to neighbouring Canada, which provides a smoother path for permanent residency (similar to a US green card) and an easier pathway to citizenship. According to the Niskanen Center, a Washington based, policy think-tank, there are an estimated 4 million people waiting for family-based green cards and around one million stuck in the employment-based green card backlog. Annually the US sets aside only 1.40 lakh green cards for employment-based applicants and there is a 7% per country cap. Given the heavy influx of Indians in the US – majority of them holding an H-1B visa, this restrictive policy poses challenges and has resulted in a massive backlog for them in the employment- based category. However, the criticism that Indians will benefit at the cost of those from other nationalities is unfounded. In his post, Jeremy L. Neufeld, immigration policy analyst at Niskanen Center points out, “…Nothing being considered changes the per country caps. So, as far as recapture is concerned, only 7% of the recaptured visas can go to Indians. Whatever one’s opinions on the per-country caps, they will remain in place and ensure diversity for recipients of recaptured green cards.” The Build Back Better Act also contains proposals that would allow foreign nationals to pay supplemental fees to skip the green card queues. Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, states, “I am pleased that the Build Back Better Act legislation released in the US House of Representatives will finally provide relief for the over 1.2 million high-skilled workers stuck in the employment-based green card backlog,” His statement adds, “Democrats have heard these workers’ heart-breaking stories of decades-long green card queues and children being forced to self-deport, and are now taking action…” In addition, the draft Build Back Better Act amends the Immigration and Nationality Act registry cut-off date to allow individuals who entered the U.S. prior to January 1, 2010 to apply for green cards. However, given that the Senate Parliamentarian did not agree with earlier immigration proposals being included in a spending bill, the Indian diaspora isn’t cheering yet and has adopted a wait and watch approach.

Journalists Misread Delayed Poll as Sticker Shock on Biden Bill - Last week, a Gallup poll reported that Americans had reverted to a long-time pattern of preferring fewer, rather than more, government efforts to deal with the nation’s problems. Many in the media misinterpreted the poll to mean the public has soured on President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better bill—in part because of the timing of the poll, and in part because they didn’t recognize a peculiar characteristic of public opinion. The Gallup poll reported that a majority of Americans, 52%, now feel that “the government is doing too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses,” while only 43% “want the government to do more to solve the country’s problems.” These figures are almost the reverse of last year’s numbers, when Gallup found 54% of Americans wanting government to do more, while 41% felt it was doing too much. This year’s poll was conducted September 1–17, during the very same period that a Fox Newspoll (9/12–15/21) and a Pew poll (9/13–19/21) found large margins of support (by 17 and 24 points, respectively) for the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion reconciliation package. On the surface, the Fox and Pew polls, as well as other polls about the same time, seem to undermine Gallup’s findings. Results of the Gallup poll, however, were not released until a month later (10/14/21), giving the false impression that it was a more recent development in public opinion. Reaction in the media was swift. No fewer than four journalists from the Washington Post alone—Catherine Rampell (10/14/21), Philip Bump (10/15/21), Dan Balz (10/16/21) and Henry Olsen (10/18/21)—cited the poll as evidence that Biden’s Build Back Better legislation was now in trouble. Rampell wrote, for example: “Inconvenient but true: Americans want government to do less. Not more. Democrats cannot afford to just hand-wave this problem away.”And Bump argued that: those advocating for Biden to leverage his mandate to go big on spending need to recognize that the mandate has eroded, and that the large group of independents is skeptical of Biden and the broad strokes of his policy agenda, even if they endorse the specifics. The New York Times editorial board (10/16/21) lamented the poll result as evidence that support for the reconciliation package had declined: But it ought not to be dictated by the results of the latest public policy poll. Democrats must consider public opinion, of course, but they were ultimately elected to enact laws they regard as necessary. They must act in the public interest, not in the interest of public opinion. CNN‘s Chris Cillizza (10/14/21) announced bluntly that this was “bad news for Joe Biden.” Several conservative and right-wing media picked up on the CNN story, one site upping the ante with the headline that the Gallup poll was “VERY Bad News for Democrats.”

Democrats Need to Sell the Reconciliation Package -With the finish line in sight (if still stubbornly out of reach) for the Democrats’ massive social-programs and economic development bill, the party now faces the challenge of focusing the attention of its key constituencies and the public on what remains in the package, not on what was cut in the exhausting legislative maneuvering.To meet the objections primarily of Democratic Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, party leaders underwent a grueling process of shrinking the bill roughly in half—from about $3.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion in spending over 10 years. That forced Democrats to jettison or severely scale back a daunting list of priorities, including free community college, Medicare dental benefits, higher tax rates on the wealthy and corporations, paid family leave, and a system to pressure utilities to accelerate their transition from fossil fuels to renewable-energy sources.Manchin and Sinema have infuriated not only liberals but also a broad range of Democratic officials by dragging out the talks and repeatedly insisting that ideas supported by virtually everyone else in the party (such as the clean-electricity provisions, paid family leave, and higher personal and corporate tax rates) be removed because of their personal objections. Even after President Joe Biden unveiled the “framework agreement” yesterday morning, Manchin’s and Sinema’s striking refusal to explicitly declare that they would support it forced yet another postponement of the vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill that House liberals have said they will not advance without an ironclad commitment from the two on the broader budget package.To the extent that the public has heard of the budget bill at all, the message for the past two months has been dominated by this brutal game of legislative Survivor, with sponsors and advocates of each doomed program loudly bemoaning its demise and the outsize influence of the two senators forcing the cuts. But as painful as the process has been, Democrats generally remain optimistic that they can come together soon around Biden’s framework agreement. If and when they do, they will have the opportunity to begin highlighting the key elements that survived—including universal pre-K, expanded health-care subsidies, and massive investments in green energy. That is, if they can avoid replicating the bitter postmortems that occurred after similar resistance from a handful of center-right Democratic senators forced the removal of some progressive priorities from the Affordable Care Act in 2010, particularly a public option to compete with private insurance companies. In its reduced form, the reconciliation bill no longer justifies the frequent comparisons to the New Deal and Great Society that were common at the larger price tag (and which Biden reportedly repeated at his meeting with House Democrats yesterday). But even after all of the accommodations to Manchin and Sinema, the final bill will still represent the biggest concentration of new and expanded federal initiatives since President Lyndon B. Johnson passed those Great Society programs in the mid-1960s. Counting down from $3.5 trillion leaves Democrats telling a story of loss, but counting up to $1.75 trillion allows Democrats to highlight a substantial list of long-standing party priorities that will move into law.

 “Democrats Introduce Plan To Fix Social Security, The Way We Fixed the Cat” - Commenter and Social Security Expert Dale Coberly assesses the latest plan coming out of Washington DC “Congress has a new plan to fix Social Security. How it would change benefits,” CNBC in the House. Dale was one of the creators of the Northwest Plan which was accepted as a solution by Congressman DeFazio and Social Security’s Karen P. Glenn, Deputy Chief Actuary, Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration in an email from DeFazio’s office.Today, Dale explains why many of the points or changes proposed in the House plan may be bad ideas as depicted in the CNBC article. The Democrats have been so successful lately demonstrating how to turn a winning position into a losing one, they thought they’d try it out with Social Security. Leave Social Security Alone has been a winning position for Democrats since 1936, despite their occasional efforts in the past to join the latest Republican stampede to fix Social Security by cutting benefits.Now they may have found a way to boot their advantage and lose by winning. The following is taken from an article in CNBC Life Changes ( Congress has a new plan to fix Social Security. How it would change benefits ). My comments follow each paragraph.. House Democrats are reintroducing a Social Security reform bill popular with their party. This time, it features some changes aimed at attracting more support from Republicans. note: “attracting more support from Republicans.” That should tell you something is up that won’t turn out good for Social Security or the people who depend on it. [that’s you, even if you don’t know it yet.]The bill, known as the Social Security 2100 Act, is being brought forward by Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., chairman of the House Ways and Means subcommittee on Social Security. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., appeared with Larson on Tuesday to announce the reintroduction of the bill.All good people as far as I know. Maybe not as smart as Roosevelt, but they mean well.Neal urged lawmakers to offset the concentration of wealth, which has become more prevalent in the U.S., by embracing this Social Security proposal and extending the expanded child tax credit.“We have this rare moment to accomplish seismic achievements, and this is the time to do it,” he said.Beware of seismic achievements; this has been the Republican “Don’t miss this once in a lifetime opportunity” sales pitch for their last eight attempts to kill Social Security by saving it. or (when the wind changed) to save Social Security by killing it: “it’s socialism,” “you’ll never get a penny back,” “It’s going broke,” “it is broke, flat bust,” “it’s going broke (again),” “The stock market will make everyone rich,” “Greedy old people are stealing from the young,” etc.The new version of the bill, called Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust, follows the Social Security Administration’s latest estimates that the trust funds that support the program will be depleted in just 13 years. At that time, in 2034, only 78% of promised benefits will be payable.The bill proposes extending that date to 2038 to give Congress more time to come up with a long-term solution to the program’s solvency issues. I think what this means is that Larson’s bill will not solve the program’s “solvency issues” but just push them back four years. In any case the Trust Fund was never intended to “support the program.” Social Security is “supported” by the payroll tax. The temporarily largeTrust Fund was created to enable the boomers to pay for their own retirement, just all previous generations have done, but because of the unusual size of the boomer generation could not be done by the normal pay as you go financing. There is no mention in this article that 100% of promised benefits could be paid for by raising the payoll tax 2% each for the worker and the employer. Even though polls have shown that workers would rather raise the tax than “change”Social Security. There is no solvency issue if we just pay for what we need, just as our parents and grandparents didThis new bill combines Biden’s proposals with House Ways and Means initiatives to expand and enhance Social Security benefits, he said. Biden seems to be another good man. But he would not be the first Democratic President who advocated doing something that would hurt Social Security and the people who depend on it.

 U.S. in Talks to Pay Hundreds of Millions to Families Separated at Border – WSJ --The Biden administration is in talks to offer immigrant families that were separated during the Trump administration around $450,000 a person in compensation, according to people familiar with the matter, as several agencies work to resolve lawsuits filed on behalf of parents and children who say the government subjected them to lasting psychological trauma.The U.S. Departments of Justice, Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services are considering payments that could amount to close to $1 million a family, though the final numbers could shift, the people familiar with the matter said. Most of the families that crossed the border illegally from Mexico to seek asylum in the U.S. included one parent and one child, the people said. Many families would likely get smaller payouts, depending on their circumstances, the people said.The American Civil Liberties Union, which represents families in one of the lawsuits, has identified about 5,500 children separated at the border over the course of the Trump administration, citing figures provided to it by the government. The number of families eligible under the potential settlement is expected to be smaller, the people said, as government officials aren’t sure how many will come forward. Around 940 claims have so far been filed by the families, the people said.The total potential payout could be $1 billion or more.As part of a so-called zero-tolerance enforcement policy, immigration agents separated thousands of children, ranging from infants to teenagers, from their parents at the southern border in 2018 after they had crossed illegally from Mexico to seek asylum in the U.S. In some cases families were forcefully broken up with no provisions to track and later reunite them, government investigations found. The lawsuits allege some of the children suffered from a range of ailments, including heat exhaustion and malnutrition, and were kept in freezing cold rooms and provided little medical attention.Many of the lawsuits describe lasting mental-health problems for the children from the trauma of the months without their parents in harsh conditions, including anxiety, a fear of strangers and nightmares. The lawsuits seek a range of payouts, with the average demand being roughly $3.4 million per family, some of the people said.

White House lifts ban on international travel amid rising global COVID-19 cases -Earlier this month, the White House announced that the COVID-19 restrictions placed into effect in March 2020 that effectively barred international travel to the United States would be lifted on November 8, 2021, to all fully vaccinated foreign visitors. White House spokesman Kevin Munoz confirmed the lifting of the ban on Twitter after the pronouncement, writing on October 15 that “the US’ new travel policy that requires vaccination for foreign travelers to the United States will begin on November 8. This announcement and date apply to both international air travel and land travel.” For all practical purposes, the announcement ushers in a complete end to any mitigation attempts to check the spread of the virus and inaugurates the concept of allowing the virus to become endemic like the influenza virus. The call for the shift in policy was undoubtedly coordinated to coincide with the decline in recent cases and hospitalizations, which garnered national attention. Last month more than 1,700 people were dying each day. The healthcare systems from the South through the mid-West into the mountain regions were inundated with patients. Some states were enacting crisis standards of care that limited emergency healthcare measures to those deemed to have best chance of surviving. More than 11 million people were infected in the last wave. More than 120,000 died. Still, daily new cases remain above 60,000 per day, and more than 1,200 people are dying each day from COVID. Presently, more than 46 million have reportedly been infected, and more than three-quarter million have perished. Yet, the lobbying groups representing airlines have been clamoring incessantly for months for lifting these bans. Nicholas Calio, president of Airlines for America, the lobbying group for the major US carriers, cheered Biden’s decision, adding “The full reopening of international travel is also critical to reviving economies around the globe,” In an attempt to cover for the deranged policy that will further the global transmission of the coronavirus, the Biden administration is promising that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will require airlines to collect and pass on information on passengers to aid contact tracing.

Business lobby calls for administration to 'pump the brakes' on vaccine mandate -The Biden administration’s looming vaccine-or-test mandate has unsettled several business groups, who are calling for the rule to be postponed until after the holidays. These business groups, representing sectors ranging from retail to trucking, scheduled meetings with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) this week to discuss their concerns about the federal requirements. Groups worry that the mandate will lead to bulk resignations and add to industries’ struggles. Businesses are already experiencing a shortage of workers in the lead-up to the holiday season. But many public health officials have supported vaccine mandates, saying they might be the country’s best bet to end the pandemic. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) was tasked with drafting the rule announced by President Biden last month that requires employers with at least 100 employees to mandate vaccines or weekly testing. Employers could face penalties up to $14,000 per violation. OSHA issued a written rule to the OMB earlier this month for review, and the office booked meetings with dozens of interest groups and individuals over the past two weeks, including the National Retail Federation. The National Retail Federation, which has dedicated millions of dollars to vaccine incentives, has “serious questions” about the forthcoming rule, particularly its “one size fits all” approach, Edwin Egee, vice president of government relations and workforce development, said. “We’re really concerned how that’s going to impact us,” Egee said. “There’re already over a million vacant positions in the retail industry, and this is not going to help that, especially as we’re going to try to hire up more as we move into the holiday season.” Egee said he is urging the White House to “pump the brakes a little” with an at least 90-day implementation period. The longer timeline would allow officials to see how COVID-19 trends go and to address “the complexities” of the requirements, including mapping out the logistics of weekly testing for unvaccinated employees, he said. “Simply imposing this mandate on all employers, regardless of their facilities, regardless of the style of their operations, it could be really problematic potentially ... as retailers move into the holiday season,” he said. The American Trucking Associations also called for the implementation period to extend at least 90 days in a letter sent to the OMB last week, citing that the industry could lose up to 37 percent of drivers with retirements, resignations and job changes. “Even if the ultimate goal is something we all agree on — increasing vaccination protections and defeating the COVID-19 Pandemic — it is vital that public health measures first do no harm,” Chris Spear, the association’s president and CEO, wrote in the letter obtained by The Hill. The labor market has already been affected by shortages as the quits rate reached a record high of 2.9 percent in August when millions of Americans left their jobs voluntarily.

Texas AG sues White House over vaccine mandate -Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) filed a federal lawsuit against the Biden administration over the vaccine mandate for federal contractors. The complaint asks a federal court in Galveston to declare the vaccine mandate unlawful, and to issue preliminary and permanent injunctive relief barring the mandate from being enforced. The lawsuit says the administration is “using subterfuge to accomplish what they cannot achieve directly—universal compliance with their vaccine mandates, regardless of individual preferences, healthcare needs, or religious beliefs.” “Defendants effectively claim for themselves a general police power to control American life, infringing on states’ sovereignty and usurping the powers reserved to the states under the Constitution,” the suit continues. Texas is the latest GOP state in the past couple of days to sue the Biden administration over the mandate for federal contractors. The mandate will require all federal workers and contractors to be vaccinated against COVID-19, with no option for testing. The measure is expected to take effect Dec. 8. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) filed a lawsuit in a Tampa federal court on Thursday seeking a preliminary nationwide injunction. Earlier on Friday, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) filed a separate lawsuit challenging the mandate. Kemp is being joined by state leaders from Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, South Carolina, Utah and West Virginia. Texas has notably taken a hard stance against vaccine and mask mandates. Its governor, Greg Abbott (R), has also banned local governments from mandating masks, sparking months of legal battles between the state and local officials.

Kemp, other GOP governors to sue Biden administration over vaccine mandate Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will file a lawsuit in federal court challenging the Biden administration's vaccine mandate for federal contractors, his office announced Friday. Kemp and Attorney General Chris Carr (R) were joined on the complaint by leaders from Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, South Carolina, Utah, and West Virginia. It comes on the heels of a similar lawsuit filed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Thursday. "In addition to being an unlawful and unconstitutional overreach, this vaccine mandate on federal contractors will only further divide Americans and hamstring our economy," Kemp said in a statement. The policy is scheduled to take effect Dec. 8, and will require all federal workers and contractors to be vaccinated against COVID-19, without a testing option. The plaintiffs are asking the court for an injunction blocking the administration and federal agencies from enforcing the mandate on any contractor based in their respective states. Both Kemp and Carr face reelection next year, and Kemp is likely to face a Trump-backed challenger after he ran afoul of the former president by certifying the 2020 election results. "We will challenge this heavy-handed directive that not only serves as a clear violation of law but also places immense burden on our state," Carr said in a statement. Shortly after Biden announced the mandate in September, Kemp said he intended to sue to stop it. Health experts have praised mandates as an effective way to get people vaccinated, and the White House has fully leaned into them as a way to turn the tide of the pandemic, after initially steering clear of federal intervention. On Wednesday, White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients said the purpose of the mandates isn't to punish people, and noted the deadlines for federal employees and contractors "are not cliffs." Zients said federal employers and contractors will be expected to educate, counsel and accommodate their unvaccinated workers to persuade them to receive the shot before terminating them.

Attorneys general in 10 GOP states join fight against Biden administration's vaccine mandate --Ten attorneys general in states with GOP governors shave joined the fight to push back against a Biden administration vaccine mandate for federal contractors, arguing that it is “unconstitutional, unlawful, and unwise.” The lawsuit filed by the Attorneys Generals from the states of Missouri, Nebraska Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming called a vaccine mandate issued by the Biden administration to require federal contractors to get the COVID-19 shot by Dec. 8 a “power grab.” The lawsuit alleged that the requirement was an unlawful usurpation of the states’ police powers, violated the Tenth Amendment and was “non consistent” with procurement law, among other concerns. “If the federal government attempts to unconstitutionally exert its will and force federal contractors to mandate vaccinations, the workforce and businesses could be decimated, further exacerbating the supply chain and workforce crises,” Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt said in a statement. “The federal government should not be mandating vaccinations, and that’s why we filed suit today – to halt this illegal, unconstitutional action.” “The ramifications of the federal contractor vaccine mandate are significant,” Nebraska Attorney General Douglas Peterson said in a statement. “It will impact countless employees, exacerbate existing workforce shortages, and create economic instability. Most importantly, it puts individual employees who happened to work for federal contractors out of a job if they simply make the personal choice not to be vaccinated.” A White House official told McClatchy, responding to legal challenges waged by Missouri and Florida, that President Biden “has authority to protect the federal workforce and promote efficiency in federal contracting in this way,” arguing that federal procurement law is not violated by the vaccine mandate. The Hill has reached out to the White House for comment. The lawsuit follows legal challenges to the federal contractor vaccine mandate that have been waged by several other states including Georgia, Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, South Carolina, Utah, West Virginia, Texas and Florida.

NIH Director Shredded Over Risky Research In Wuhan After CNN Interview Goes Sideways --While most corporate media outlets are throwing softballs at Dr. Anthony Fauci over revelations that the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded risky gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China, Fauci's 'boss' - NIH Director Francis Collins - wasn't so lucky. In a blistering Sunday night interview, CNN's Pamela Brown (credit where it's due) absolutely grilled Collins over the NIH's funding of New York-based nonprofit, EcoHealth alliance, which performed textbook Gain of Function research - genetically engineering bat coronaviruses so they can infect humans. Last week the NIH admitted that EcoHealth violated the terms of a grant by failing to report their achievement (which EcoHealth denies), sending both Fauci and Collins into full damage control over the weekend. Now, the official story is that while EcoHealth violated their contract, and are allegedly 'in trouble' for failing to report their achievement, the NIH and NIAID (Collins and Fauci) maintain that the research still wasn't risky enough to qualify for enhanced oversight. CNN's Brown didn't let Collins get away with his carefully crafted talking points - repeatedly pressing him over what else the NIH may be funding that they don't know about, and asking why the American people should trust them after last week's revelation. Breaking down the interview is Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin - who in March revealed in his book: "Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century" that the (NIH) "had funded a number of projects that involved WIV scientists, including much of the Wuhan lab's work with bat coronaviruses." In April, Rogin revealed that in 2018, diplomats with the US State Department warned over safety issues at Wuhan labs studying bat COVID. In short - few journalists are as qualified as Rogin to opine on what's going on.

Bipartisan legislators demand answers from Fauci on 'cruel' puppy experiments --A bipartisan letter demands answers from the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and President Biden's chief medical adviser. The White Coat Waste Project, the nonprofit organization that first pointed out that U.S. taxpayers were being used to fund the controversial Wuhan Institute of Virology, have now turned its sights on Anthony Fauci on another animal-testing-related matter — infecting dozens of beagles with disease-causing parasites to test an experimental drug on them. House members, most of whom are Republicans, want Fauci to explain himself in response to allegations brought on by the White Coat Waste Project that involve drugging puppies. According to the White Coat Waste Project, the Food and Drug Administration does not require drugs to be tested on dogs, so the group is asking why the need for such testing. White Coat Waste claims that 44 beagle puppies were used in a Tunisia, North Africa, laboratory, and some of the dogs had their vocal cords removed, allegedly so scientists could work without incessant barking. Leading the effort is Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), writing a letter to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) saying the cordectomies are “cruel” and a “reprehensible misuse of taxpayer funds.” "Our investigators show that Fauci’s NIH division shipped part of a $375,800 grant to a lab in Tunisia to drug beagles and lock their heads in mesh cages filled with hungry sand flies so that the insects could eat them alive," White Coat Waste told Changing America. "They also locked beagles alone in cages in the desert overnight for nine consecutive nights to use them as bait to attract infectious sand flies."

Birx tells Congress that election ‘distracted’ Trump team from pandemic response, more than 130,000 died unnecessarily - The Washington Post - The Trump administration was “distracted” by last year’s election and ignored recommendations to curb the pandemic, the White House’s former coronavirus response coordinator told congressional investigators this month.“I felt like the White House had gotten somewhat complacent through the campaign season,” said Deborah Birx, who President Donald Trump chose to steer his government’s virus response, according to interview excerpts released by the House select subcommittee on the pandemic.Birx, who sat for interviews with the subcommittee on Oct. 12 and 13, also detailed advice that she said the White House ignored late last year, including more aggressively testing younger Americans, expanding access to virus treatments and better distributing vaccine doses in long-term care facilities.More than 130,000 American lives could have been saved with swifter action and better coordinated public health messages after the virus’s first wave, Birx told investigators.Advertisement“I believe if we had fully implemented the mask mandates, the reduction in indoor dining, the getting friends and family to understand the risk of gathering in private homes, and we had increased testing, that we probably could have decreased fatalities into the 30-percent-less to 40-percent-less range,” Birx said.More than 735,000 Americans have died of coronavirus-related complications since the pandemic began, including more than 300,000 since President Biden took office.Birx earlier this year told reporters about the difficulty of responding to the pandemic during an election year. Asked to elaborate on her prior comments, Birx told the subcommittee that some officials “were actively campaigning and not as present in the White House as previously.”The election year “just took people’s time away from and distracted them away from the pandemic in my personal opinion,” Birx said. She did not name the officials..

Trump aides, House members helped plan January 6 attack on Congress -- Two right-wing activists who participated in planning and organizing the January 6 rally at the White House that preceded the attack on Congress have told a House Select Committee and Rolling Stone magazine that at least a dozen members of Congress, their staff, and several top White House aides were involved in the preparations. The “stunning series of allegations,” as Rolling Stone described it, has been met by a wall of silence in the corporate media, and a similar blackout from leading Democrats, including President Biden—whose election victory was the target of the January 6 attack—as well as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose offices were ransacked and staff terrorized by the fascist attackers. With the White House in the background, President Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Washington, Jan. 6, 2021 Rolling Stone said that the two insiders “detailed explosive allegations that multiple members of Congress were intimately involved in planning both Trump’s efforts to overturn his election loss and the Jan. 6 events that turned violent.” The magazine’s report would, if proven true, serve as the basis for expulsion from Congress and trial on serious felony charges of such Republican representatives as Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar of Arizona, Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Mo Brooks of Alabama, Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina, and Louie Gohmert of Texas. Gosar in particular allegedly promised planners of the attack on Congress that Trump would issue a full pardon for anyone charged with a crime as a result of the events of January 6, a clear indication that both he and those he was speaking to were aware that what was coming was not a peaceful protest, but some form of criminal assault on the US Capitol. The two sources named Thomas Van Flein, Gosar’s chief of staff, as a participant in conversations about a “blanket pardon” for those involved in the upcoming events. Van Flein is one of those named in the House Select Committee’s request for documents and communications from within the Trump administration about the events of January 6. In addition to the two participants in the preparation of the January 6 attack who spoke to the committee and to Rolling Stone, a third participant spoke only to the magazine, and reportedly confirmed the account of the other two. Rolling Stone reported: “While there have been prior indications that members of Congress were involved, this is also the first account detailing their purported role and its scope. The two sources also claim they interacted with members of Trump’s team, including former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who they describe as having had an opportunity to prevent the violence.” The two organizers identified long-time Trump aide Katrina Pierson, a participant in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns, as the main go-between between the president’s inner circle and the groups preparing action in the streets. “Katrina was like our go-to girl,” one told Rolling Stone. “She was like our primary advocate.” Pierson was a speaker at the January 6 rally outside the White House. According to the report, “Both sources also describe Trump’s White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, as someone who played a major role in the conversations surrounding the protests on Jan. 6.” Meadows was subpoenaed by the House Select Committee along with top Trump counselor Stephen Bannon “Meadows was 100 percent made aware of what was going on,” one activist told Rolling Stone. “He’s also like a regular figure in these really tiny groups of national organizers.”

Democrats say GOP lawmakers implicated in Jan. 6 should be expelled --Democratic lawmakers are renewing calls to expel any member of Congress implicated in the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol following reporting that witnesses recently informed congressional investigators of their coordination with lawmakers. A Sunday story from Rolling Ston didn’t directly tie lawmakers to the violent assault, but two sources who spoke to the outlet instead detailed multiple meetings with members of Congress to coordinate contesting the election results and plan the rallies that preceded the attack. The sources reportedly have met with the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. They outlined “dozens” of planning briefings, adding that those who either participated or sent top staffers include GOP Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Paul Gosar (Ariz.), Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Mo Brooks (Ala.), Madison Cawthorn (N.C.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.) and Louie Gohmert (Texas.). The sources also told the magazine that Mark Meadows, former President Trump’s chief of staff, played a significant role in discussions regarding the protests ahead of Jan. 6. Many of the GOP lawmakers listed in the piece have denied involvement, but the report led to a flood of calls from their Democratic colleagues to remove from office anyone found to be involved in the attack. “Any member of Congress who helped plot a terrorist attack on our nation’s Capitol must be expelled,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) wrote on Twitter. “This was a terror attack. 138 injured, almost 10 dead. Those responsible remain a danger to our democracy, our country, and human life in the vicinity of our Capitol and beyond,” she added.

Trump looks to block 770 pages of records from Jan. 6 panel: court records -Former President Trump is looking to withhold 770 pages of documents from the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, according to court documents filed by the National Archives. In a court document filed Saturday, John Laster, who runs the White House Liaison Division at the National Archives, says the former president is looking to withhold a variety of files, including records from senior advisers, schedules, call logs and daily presidential diaries. The filings came in response to a lawsuit Trump filed earlier this month seeking to block the Jan. 6 panel from obtaining records from his administration. The panel asked the National Archives in August to turn over a long list of records from the former president’s time in office as well as from the aftermath of the attack. But Trump is arguing that the committee has not demonstrated a legislative purpose for the documents that would override his assertion of executive privilege. The White House has said it would not assert executive privilege to block the panel from accessing the records. In a letter to the National Archives on Monday, White House counsel Dana Remus said Trump’s claim of executive privilege is “not justified.” In his document, Laster lays out three batches of documents that Trump is asserting privilege over. The first batch of 46 records includes daily presidential diaries, drafts of speeches and remarks, and three handwritten notes from former Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows regarding Jan. 6.The second batch of records, which contains 656 pages of documents, includes pages of binders containing talking points from former White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany regarding election fraud and the 2020 election. This batch also includes a draft of Trump’s speech for the Save America rally that preceded the riot and a “draft Executive Order on the top of election integrity.”Additionally, Trump is asserting privilege over a third batch of 68 records, which includes a draft proclamation honoring the Capitol Police and officers Brian Sicknick and Howard Liebengood, who died after the Jan. 6 riot. The third batch also contains records relating to a potential lawsuit against states that President Biden won in 2020 and a document concerning the “security of the 2020 presidential election and ordering various actions.”

Donald Trump Jr. sells T-shirts mocking Alec Baldwin's fatal shooting | TheHill Donald Trump Jr. is selling T-shirts on his web site that mock the fatal shooting on Alec Baldwin's movie set. The T-shirts promoted on his website include the tagline "guns don't kill people, Alec Baldwin kills people." The shirts retail for $27.99 and appeared online after Baldwin accidentally fired a prop gun on a movie set that killed cinematographer Halyna Hutchins and injured director Joel Souza, Insider reported. Trump also took to his Instagram to share a meme that said, “Let’s all watch Alec Baldwin blame the gun" with the caption, "It’s only a matter of time." Baldwin parodied former President Trump for years on "Saturday Night Live," feuding with the wider Trump family throughout the Republican's presidency. Donald Trump Jr. since the fatal shooting has been regularly sharing memes of Baldwin on his Instagram page. Last week he posted a meme with the caption, "That look when an anti gun nut kills more people with a gun than your extensive firearm collection ever has."

Trump campaign sells 'Let's Go Brandon' T-shirts - The Trump campaign team sent out an email Thursday offering "Let's Go Brandon" T-shirts in return for any campaign donation of $45 or more. The email reads in part: "You’ve probably heard it being chanted anywhere patriotic Americans get together. Well now, President Trumphas put America’s favorite new phrase on a custom shirt. That’s right. President Trump has just authorized the release of his brand-new, limited-edition 'LET’S GO BRANDON' shirts." The email goes on to say that the T-shirt is in "high demand," and is stated in the email as being "low stock." The email advertises it by stating, "Whether you’re at a concert, football game, or just out for a walk in the park, you’re probably going to hear someone say 'LET’S GO BRANDON.' Now you can have a shirt to match."The viral phrase "let's go Brandon" first came into popularity at a NASCAR race in Alabama,according to ABC 4. It was initially used in reference to NASCAR driver Brandon Brown, but when people chant or type "Brandon," they are not usually actually cheering for the NASCAR racer, according to ABC 4. The phrase went viral after Brown was interviewed by Kelli Stavas. In the background of the interview, the crowd in the stands was chanting a political statement: "f--- Joe Biden," ABC 4 reports. That was not what Kelli Stavas heard, however, according to ABC 4. “As you can hear the chants from the crowd — ‘Let’s go, Brandon,'” Stavas incorrectly stated while speaking with Brown, ABC 4 reports. Since then, the meme has taken off, spreading across social media and being mentioned by high-ranking politicians.

Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen says it's cheaper to run 'hateful' ads on the platform than other kind of adverts. 'We are literally subsidizing hate.' - Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen told British lawmakers Monday that placing "hateful, angry, divisive" ads on the company's platform worked out cheaper than placing other kinds of adverts.Haugen, who worked on Facebook's civic integrity team before departing the company in May, appeared at a parliamentary select committee meeting about three weeks after she testified in front of the US Congress. She said that ads on Facebook were priced "partially based on the likelihood that people like them, reshare them, do other things to interact with them — click through on a link.""An ad that gets more engagement is a cheaper ad," she said. This made it "substantially" cheaper to run an "angry, hateful, divisive ad than it is to run a compassionate, empathetic ad," she said."We have seen that over and over again in Facebook's research it is easier to provoke people to anger than to empathy or compassion. And so we are literally subsidizing hate on these platforms," she said.Haugen repeated what she told US lawmakers during her senate hearing earlier this month: that she thinks engagement-based ranking on Facebook — optimizing content for what will get the most interaction from users — drives a lot of safety problems on the platform.

Wall Street Journal Provides New Evidence of Facebook Politically-Driven Intervention in Content by Yves Smith --The Wall Street Journal just published a detailed story substantiating what many have suspected of Facebook, that it’s been censoring right-wing content. Admittedly, this finding is in “dog bites man: terrain. Gizmodo had ascertained that through an analysis of “Trending Topics” in May 2016, meaning well before the Trump win led Democratic/establishment screeching about Russian influence and clamping down on opinion suddenly deemed responsible and necessary.However, Facebook operates on the premise that it can tell howlers to Congress and the public and large, and no one heretofore has been able to disprove its self-serving and dubious claims. So lifting the veil on Facebook’s process, such as it is, for booting content and providers from its platform serves to restrict its ability to prevaricate. It could even lead to a sensible policy or two.The Journal story relies on internal chats and focuses on Breitbart as an object of Facebook restrictions. The picture is not pretty. Facebook appears to lack any clear-cut policies, which means employees views and arguments held way too much sway. Fox also gets hated-on by Facebook staffers, but there’s no indication in this story that there’s any smoking gun as far as Fox is concerned.It’s no surprise that Facebook’s efforts at moderation are a train wreck. This tiny site has highly experienced moderators make considerable effort to keep the discussion civil and informative. Moderation does not scale.And that’s before the wee problem of Facebook having what sure sounds like unduly fuzzy objectives. I find it hard to understand, save its presumably huge legal budget, why Facebook has put itself in the position of intervening in content as much as it does. This degree of control over content makes it hard for Facebook to deny that it’s a publisher, as opposed to a platform.It’s puzzling that Facebook hasn’t attempted to stare down the thought police and banned content and sites only that peddled hate speech (as in the kind that could be successfully prosecuted) and exhortations to commit violence. Cracking down on misinformation? Seriously? After two plus years of Russiagate fabrications? As Lambert points out, the discussion among scientists on Covid aerosol transmission would have been expunged under the “misinformation” standard because both the CDC and WHO rejected it.In fact, the Journal story both points out how Breitbart and other conservative sites were down-metered, yet also suggests they were treated too timidly because revenues:

 Facebook's new smart glasses may be impressive, but they also raise serious privacy and security concerns - Facebook's smart glasses ambitions are in the news again. The company has launched a worldwide project dubbed Ego4D to research new uses for smart glasses.In September, Facebook unveiled its Ray-Ban Stories glasses, which have two cameras and three microphones built in. The glasses capture audio and video so wearers can record their experiences and interactions.The research project aims to add augmented reality features to smart glasses using artificial intelligence technologies that could provide wearers with a wealth of information, including the ability to get answers to questions like "Where did I leave my keys?"Facebook's vision also includes a future where the glasses can "know who's saying what when and who's paying attention to whom."Several other technology companies like Google, Microsoft, Snap,Vuzix, and Lenovo have also been experimenting with versions of augmented or mixed reality glasses. Augmented reality glasses can display useful information within the lenses, providing an electronically enhanced view of the world. For example, smart glasses could draw a line over the road to show you the next turn or let you see a restaurant's Yelp rating as you look at its sign.However, some of the information that augmented reality glasses give their users could include identifying people in the glasses' field of view and displaying personal information about them. It was not too long ago that Google introduced Google Glass, only to face apublic backlash for simply recording people. Compared to being recorded by smartphones in public, being recorded by smart glassesfeels to people like a greater invasion of privacy.As a researcher who studies computer security and privacy, I believe it's important for technology companies to proceed with caution and consider the security and privacy risks of augmented reality.

Biden’s Nominee Omarova Has a Published Plan to Move All Bank Deposits to the Fed and Let the New York Fed Short Stocks -- This month, the Vanderbilt Law Review published a 69-page paper by Saule Omarova, President Biden’s nominee to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal regulator of the largest banks in the country that operate across state lines. The paper is titled “The People’s Ledger: How to Democratize Money and Finance the Economy.” The paper, in all seriousness, proposes the following:

• (1) Moving all commercial bank deposits from commercial banks to so-called FedAccounts at the Federal Reserve;
• (2) Allowing the Fed, in “extreme and rare circumstances, when the Fed is unable to control inflation by raising interest rates,” to confiscate deposits from these FedAccounts in order to tighten monetary policy;
• (3) Allowing the most Wall Street-conflicted regional Fed bank in the country, the New York Fed, when there are “rises in market value at rates suggestive of a bubble trend,” such as with technology stocks today, to “short these securities, thereby putting downward pressure on their prices”;
• (4) Eliminate the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) that insures bank deposits;
• (5) Consolidate all bank regulatory functions at the OCC – which Omarova has been nominated to head.

Republican Senator Pat Toomey has been running a Red Scare campaign against Omarova, who was born in the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic (now Kazakhstan) and attended Moscow State University on a Lenin Personal Academic Scholarship. The real threat that Omarova poses to U.S. financial stability, that Democrats should be calling out, is that she wants to further concentrate all major aspects of the U.S. banking system in the hands of the Federal Reserve, a captured regulator whose 12 regional bank tentacles are, literally, owned by the banks. (See These Are the Banks that Own the New York Fed and Its Money Button.) Omarova offers not one scintilla of a suggestion about restructuring the Fed so that it is not owned by or controlled by the banks.In her paper, Omarova characterizes the current relationship between the Fed and the banks as the Fed running a “franchisor ledger” to assist its franchisee-banks. But as the Fed’s secret $29 trillion bailout of the mega banks on Wall Street and their foreign derivative counterparties proved following the financial crash in 2008, it’s actually the banks that are cracking the whip and the Fed amicably doing their bidding. That means that the mega banks are the franchisor and they’ve shifted their faux bank examinations and faux stress tests to the Fed, for appearances sake.This point is further demonstrated by the fact that during the Fed’s 2007-2010 bailouts, most of the Fed’s emergency lending programs were farmed out in no-bid contracts to the very banks being bailed out. JPMorgan Chase, a five-count felon, continues to havea contract with the Fed to serve as custodian of more than $2 trillion of the Fed’s agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS).As further proof as to who owns whom, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has outsourced its major functions to the privately-owned New York Fed, whose largest private shareholders are the mega banks, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of New York Mellon.

IRS reporting plan appears doomed after more Democrats oppose it — Banks moved closer to a legislative victory Thursday after more Democrats came out against a plan to require financial institutions to report account activity to the Internal Revenue Service and a draft framework of President Biden's social spending proposal did not include the proposal. Analysts and industry lobbyists warned that the spending package is still in flux and neither chamber of Congress has voted. But the chances of the IRS reporting plan being included dimmed further after 21 House Democrats told congressional leaders that it was “overly broad and raises significant privacy concerns.” “We have little information about how the IRS plans to protect or use this massive trove of data,” they wrote in a letter dated Wednesday to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Richard Neal, D-Mass. The lawmakers included Reps. Josh Gotteimer, D-N.J., Luis Correa, D-Calif., Stephanie Murphy, D-Fla., Al Lawson, D-Fla., and Carolyn Bourdeaux, D-Ga.

IRS reporting plan ‘on life support,’ but banks not celebrating just yet — A Biden administration plan that would force banks to report customer account flows to the Internal Revenue Service appeared to lose steam Wednesday, one day after Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., signaled opposition, but industry representatives said they were not ready to declare victory.After Manchin's comments, some news outlets reported that the IRS reporting plan was dead. But industry sources and subsequent reports said the Treasury Department was attempting to narrow the proposal's scope dramatically to preserve its chances.The plan is seen as a key way to crack down on tax cheats and raise revenue to pay for President Biden's social spending package making its way through Congress. But banks, many lawmakers and other critics say it would be a compliance nightmare and allow the government to snoop on citizens' private finances.

CFPB’s Chopra fills two key leadership posts at agency -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced the hiring of two former Obama administration officials as the agency's supervision and enforcement chiefs.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra on Friday named Lorelei Salas, who was director of strategic enforcement in the Department of Labor from 2007 to 2011, as assistant director for supervision policy and acting assistant director for supervision examinations. The bureau also made official the appointment of Eric Halperin, a former civil rights official at the Justice Department in the Obama administration, as assistant director for the bureau's office of enforcement.

New CFPB chief vows tough oversight of big tech, large banks -The nominee to lead the U.S.’s top swaps regulator has a warning for lawmakers: Crypto misconduct the agency has already exposed is “the tip of the iceberg” and it likely needs more authority to police the white-hot market. Rostin Behnam, the Biden administration’s pick to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said the explosive growth of digital tokens means Congress might have to step in to ensure the watchdog has the tools it needs to crack down.The CFTC has closely scrutinized the industry since green-lighting Bitcoin futures in 2017. But its powers are mostly limited to overseeing derivatives.

CFPB chief warns of big tech's deeper incursion into financial sector Regulators across the government need to respond to the expanding reach of the largest technology companies, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra said Thursday.“Every single government agency is being impacted by how big tech companies are infiltrating sectors of the economy,” Chopra, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, said in perhaps his strongest comments about the technology sector since taking the helm of the CFPB on Oct. 12.One day after he testified in the House, Chopra addressed a whole host of topics and took some hostile questioning from Republican senators. He brought up consumer issues regarding student loan servicers, military service members and an upcoming rule on small-business data collection.

Crypto crackdown is ‘tip of the iceberg’ as CFTC seeks more powers --Rohit Chopra sought common ground with House lawmakers in his first congressional hearing as Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director, and the strategy generally seemed to work. Chopra, a Democrat who was sworn in on Oct. 12, focused on topics with bipartisan appeal: the bureau's enforcement efforts aimed at large companies, ways it may try to help small businesses (including small financial companies) and the importance of strong relationships between banks and customers. His peace offering appeared to be well received by Republicans and Democrats. During the four-hour hearing Wednesday, lawmakers avoided using the kind of fiery rhetoric that they've aimed at his predecessors in the past.

Ex-Wells Fargo advisor arrested in New Jersey on client-fraud charges -A former Wells Fargo investment advisor stole nearly $3 million from clients and used the money for personal expenses and to buy gold coins, federal prosecutors said. Kenneth A. Welsh was arrested at his home in River Edge, New Jersey, Thursday morning on charges that he misappropriated funds from the accounts of five investors between 2016 and 2021. Welsh, who worked for Wells Fargo in nearby Fairfield, was fired in June when his conduct was discovered. He is scheduled to appear in court later today. A lawyer for him couldn’t immediately be identified. Welsh faces as much as 20 years in prison if convicted. He is also facing a parallel lawsuit by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Emergency Room Doctors’ Lobbyist Admits to Large-Scale Medicare Billing Fraud by Members, Criminal Corporate Practice of Medicine by PE Firms - Yves Smith - Financial journalist Maureen Tkacik, who did a terrific in-depth story on the Boeing 737 Max debacle when that was a hot story, has an important find in her latest piece: Wall Street Is Pressing ER Docs To Fleece Patients. She’s found a smoking gun that private equity firms are misusing doctors’ license numbers to at a minimum bill without their oversight and review and potentially useing them to submit bogus charges (for services not rendered or by billing work done by a non-MD as performed by the physician). Even merely submitting bills on behalf of the MD without his oversight and participation is the corporate practice of medicine, which is also illegal in many states. Oh, and anyone who can document that this is happening (as in provide documentary evidence of Medicare billing abuses) would be able to file a False Claims Act suit, also known as qui tam. That is a private action to recover funds defrauded from the government. Successful qui tam plaintiffs get a portion of the recovery, the percentage depending on how valuable and difficult to unearth their information was. Medicare fraud is much easier to prove than many other abuses, and the government loves going after it. So frustrated bean counters and supervisors in hospitals, look sharp! Dogooderism could be much more rewarding. For those of you who are new to the nasty intersection of private equity and health industry grifting, private equity firms have been buying up specialist groups in hospitals like emergency room doctors and then managing the staffing and the billing. This development has greatly increased the frequency and severity of the abuse known as “surprise billing,” where formerly hospitals, and now more aggressive private equity firms, make sure to include out-of-network providers so as to jack up the charges.. Now to Tkacik:…the major professional organization representing emergency physicians just admitted that private equity greed may be leaving the ER doctors vulnerable to criminal fraud charges.The admission came in a document the board of the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) circulated to its roughly 400-member council in advance of its annual conference, which began earlier this week in Boston. Robert McNamara, a Temple University medical school professor who has been working for decades to galvanize ER doctors in opposition to the “corporate practice of medicine,” had proposed a resolution that would essentially force all ER staffing companies seeking to do business with ACEP to periodically furnish their physicians with data on the services and procedures the company had billed for under their license numbers.Buried in the middle of the otherwise mundane memo on past resolutions, the board addressed McNamara’s proposal…“ACEP engaged outside counsel to advise on whether securing regular reporting of billing in a physician’s name could inadvertently subject that physician to potential liability under the False Claims Act [emphasis added], since provision of this information could now leave them considered to be ‘knowing,’” they wrote.In other words: emergency room doctors are better off not knowing what their private equity overlords are billing under their license numbers, because they are less likely to go to jail for Medicare fraud if they didn’t actually know they were committing it. This admission is especially eye-opening coming from ACEP, an organization that has evolved over the past several decades into a willing mouthpiece for the private equity industry that controls most of the biggest ER staffing firms and has pushed the aggressive billing practices for which they have become notorious.

Mortgage servicer hit with OCC order for poor risk controls — One of the nation’s largest mortgage servicers was issued a consent order on Tuesday by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, citing inadequate risk management controls commensurate with the bank’s size. Cenlar FSB, a New Jersey-based national bank with $1.1 billion of assets and a little over 3,000 employees, is the country’s largest mortgage sub-servicer, meaning it performs servicing functions on behalf of financial institution clients. Cenlar is also the nation's second largest servicer. Cenlar's “internal controls and risk management practices do not support the current risk profile and size of the Bank’s mortgage sub-servicing portfolio," the OCC said in its order.

DOJ vows more redlining cases after Trustmark settlement -- Attorney General Merrick Garland unveiled an interagency initiative to combat redlining and announced a settlement with Trustmark National Bank in Jackson, Mississippi, of federal allegations of lending discrimination.The Justice Department, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency allege that the $17 billion-asset Trustmark discriminated against Black and Hispanic borrowers in Memphis, Tennessee, and discouraged prospective minority applicants from applying for home loans, officials said at a news conference Friday. They also say the bank avoided locating branches or hiring loan officers in minority communities.Under the settlement — shared with reporters before it was to be filed officially later in the day — Trustmark agreed to pay a $5 million penalty and invest $3.85 million in a loan subsidy fund to increase mortgage credit in affected communities.

Fannie Mae reports dramatic capital gains in 3Q -Fannie Mae in the third quarter more than doubled its net worth compared to a year ago, which is likely to be helpful as it potentially faces new regulatory goals and the need todisclose more about its capital position. The government-sponsored enterprise’s net worth for the quarter was $42.2 billion, up from $20.7 billion during the same period last year and $37.3 billion during the previous three months. (Fannie switched to hedge accounting in 2021, so previous results should be considered only roughly comparable given that they were calculated using a different methodology aimed at smoothing out quarterly swings in the market value that otherwise have disparate effects on securities and financial instruments used to manage their risks.)Fannie’s gain in net worth follows a banner year for the mortgage industry that may be difficult to match, although some forecasts — like those of Fannie’s competitor, Freddie Mac — are relatively optimistic. Fannie’s latest earnings numbers remained strong but got closer to historic norms, reporting a third-quarter net income of $4.8 billion, compared to $4.2 billion a year ago and $7.2 billion during the previous three-month period.

FHFA proposes new disclosure requirements for Fannie and Freddie -— The Federal Housing Finance Agency is proposing public disclosure requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that would closely align with international standards for large banks. Under the proposed requirements, the government-sponsored enterprises would have to disclose risk management, corporate governance and regulatory capital information to market participants on a quarterly basis, in order to provide more transparency into each company’s business practices. “These additional public disclosure requirements are intended to promote market discipline and prudent risk management practices at the Enterprises,” Sandra Thompson, the acting director of the FHFA, said in a statement. “These changes also will provide market participants with more information to assess an Enterprise’s risks and capital adequacy.”

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in September - Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 1.46%, down from 1.62% in August. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 3.04% in September 2020.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus. This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed. Also - for multifamily - delinquencies were at 0.12%, unchanged from 0.12% in August, and down from the peak of 0.20% in April 2021.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.21%" --Note: This is as of October 17th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.21%:: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 2.28% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.21% as of October 17, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 5 basis points to 1.00%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 5 basis points to 2.72%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 13 basis points to 5.21%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 8 basis points relative to the prior week to 2.49%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 5 basis points to 2.11%.“Following two weeks of rapid declines, the share of loans in forbearance dropped again, but at a reduced rate. As reported in the past, many servicers process forbearance exits at the beginning of the month, therefore it is not surprising to see the pace of exits slow again mid-month,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The composition of loans in forbearance is evolving. More than 25% of loans in forbearance are now made up of new forbearance requests and re-entries, while many other homeowners who have reached the end of 18-month terms are successfully exiting into deferrals or modifications.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. The number of forbearance plans is decreasing rapidly recently since many homeowners have reached the end of the 18-month term.The MBA notes: "By stage, 15.3% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 74.8% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 9.9% are forbearance re-entries."

 MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 22, 2021.... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 26 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent lower than the same week one year ago. ““Mortgage rates increased again last week, as the 30-year fixed rate reached 3.30 percent and the 15- year fixed rate rose to 2.59 percent – the highest for both in eight months. The increase in rates triggered the fifth straight decrease in refinance activity to the slowest weekly pace since January 2020. Higher rates continue to reduce borrowers’ incentive to refinance,” “Purchase applications picked up slightly, and the average loan size rose to its highest level in three weeks, as growth in the higher price segments continues to dominate purchase activity. Both new and existing-home sales last month were at their strongest sales pace since early 2021, but first-time home buyers are accounting for a declining share of activity. Home prices are still growing at a rapid clip, even if monthly growth rates are showing signs of moderation, and this is constraining sales in many markets, and particularly for first-timers.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.30 percent from 3.23 percent, with points decreasing to 0.34 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With relatively low rates, the index remains somewhat elevated - but the recent bump in rates has slowed activity to the lowest level since January 2020.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 9% year-over-year unadjusted. Note: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now difficult since purchase activity was strong in the second half of 2020.

30 Year Mortgage Rates "Highest Since April" at 3.27% --From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Highest Rates Since April, But There's a Catch Over the past 30 days, interest rates have risen sharply. This is true for both mortgage rates and bond market benchmarks like 10yr Treasury yields. ... Translation: at the beginning of the month, traders only saw a small chance of the first rate hike happening in September and no chance for June. Fast forward 3 weeks and September is seen as 100% likely and June is up to about a 60% chance. [30 year fixed 3.27%]This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30 year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) since 2010. Go to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods. 30 year mortgage rates are moving up, but still historically very low.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.8% year-over-year in August -- S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3 month average of June, July and August prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: Annual Home Price Gains Remained High in August According To S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.8% annual gain in August, remaining the same as the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 18.6%, down from 19.2% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted a 19.7% year-over-year gain, down from 20.0% in the previous month.Phoenix, San Diego, and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in August. Phoenix led the way with a 33.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 26.2% increase and Tampa with a 25.9% increase. Eight of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending August 2021 versus the year ending July 2021....Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.2% month-over-month increase in August, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.4%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively. In August, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.“Every one of our city and composite indices stands at its all-time high, and year-over-year price growth continues to be very strong, although moderating somewhat from last month’s levels.“In August 2021, the National Composite Index rose 19.84% from year-ago levels, marginally ahead of July’s 19.75% increase. This slowing acceleration was also evident in our 10- and 20-City Composites, which rose 18.6% and 19.7% respectively, modestly less than their rates of gain in July. Price gains were once again broadly distributed, as all 20 cities rose, although in most cases at a slower rate than had been the case a month ago. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The National index is 45% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.4% (SA) in August. The National index is up 96% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.The Composite 10 SA is up 18.6% compared to July 2020. The Composite 20 SA is up 19.7% year-over-year.The National index SA is up 19.8% year-over-year. Price increases were slightly below expectations.

Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: September Price Growth Will Remain Strong --The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released this morning. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow Research: August 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Beginning to Ease Off the Gas: House price growth through August sustained July’s unprecedented velocity, but autumn’s reports indicate that the market is easing off the gas pedal....Compared to August, homes took a little bit longer to sell in September and the for-sale inventory inched higher. In other words, though extraordinary market conditions pushed house prices skyward between the Spring of 2020 and the Summer of 2021, the latest signs indicate that the market is relenting. And while house price appreciation will remain elevated for the next several months, further acceleration is unlikely. Monthly growth in September as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from August in both the 10- and 20-city indices, and slow in the national index. Annual growth in September is expected to accelerate in the 20-city and national index, and slow in the 10-city index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, November 30.The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 20.2% in September, up from 19.8% in August.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 2.3% in September -From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dip 2.3% in September: Pending home sales dipped in September, retreating slightly following a previous month of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw contract activity decline month-over-month and year-over-year, with the Northeast weathering the largest yearly drop.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, decreased 2.3% to 116.7 in September. Year-over-year, signings decreased 8.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI fell 3.2% to 93.1 in September, an 18.5% decline from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index dropped 3.5% to 111.4 last month, down 5.8% from September 2020.Pending home sales transactions in the South decreased 1.8% to an index of 139.1 in September, down 5.8% from September 2020. The index in the West declined 1.4% in September to 105.3, down 7.2% from a year prior.This was below expectations of a 0.5% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

New Home Sales Increase to 800,000 Annual Rate in September - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 800 thousand. The previous three months were revised down significantly. Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 14.0 percent above the revised August rate of 702,000, but is 17.6 percent below the September 2020 estimate of 971,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in September to 5.7 months from 6.5 months in August.The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. This is in the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 379,000. This represents a supply of 5.7 months at the current sales rate"The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In September 2021 (red column), 65 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 77 thousand homes were sold in September.The all time high for September was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011. This was above expectations of 760 thousand SAAR, however sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly..

New Home Sales: Record 106 thousand homes have not been started - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 800 thousand. The previous three months were revised down significantly. Although the new home sales rate for September, at 800,000 on a seasonally adjusted annua l rate basis (SAAR), was above consensus expectations of 760,000 SAAR for September, sales were still down 17.6% year-over-year - since sales increased sharply following the early months of the pandemic. Also, sales in June, July and August were revised down. Sales, year to date in 2021, are 1.0% below sales in 2020, and new home sales in 2021 will finish below sales in 2020 - since sales in 2020 finished strong. This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will likely be down year-over-year for the remainder of 2021 - since the selling season was delayed in 2020. The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 36 thousand in September, just above the record low of 33 thousand in March, April, May and July 2021. That is about 0.5 months of completed supply (just above the record low).The inventory of new homes under construction is at 3.6 months - slightly above the normal level.However, a record 106 thousand homes have not been started - about 1.6 months of supply - almost double the normal level. And on prices, f rom the Census Bureau: The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2021 was $408,800. The average sales price was $451,700. The following graph shows the median and average new home prices. During the housing bust, the builders had to build smaller and less expensive homes to compete with all the distressed sales. When housing started to recovery - with limited finished lots in recovering areas - builders moved to higher price points to maximize profits. Prices picked up during the pandemic, and really picked up recently.The average price in September 2021 was $451,700 up 12% year-over-year. The median price was a record $308,800, up 19% year-over-year. The last graph shows the percent of new homes sold by price.Very few new homes sold were under $200K in September 2021 (about 1.5% of all homes). This is down from 56% in 2002. In general, the under $200K bracket is going away. There has been a sharp increase in the percent of homes over $400K since the beginning of the pandemic. Under half of new homes (about 43% in September) in the U.S., are in the $200K to $400K range. The fastest growing price segments over the last 2 years have been the $400K plus ranges (about 55% of new homes are now over $400K - a record percentage). Although new home sales will be down year-over-year in 2021, a key reason is builders have limited sales, and delayed starts, due to supply chain constraints and uncertain costs. This is also why there are a record number of homes “not started”. Some costs have fallen recently, and the supply chain issues should resolve in time.

House Construction Costs Spike Most since 1979 amid Materials Shortages. Unfinished Houses Pile Up, Total Inventory Highest since 2008. Prices Spike as Lower End DiesShortages of windows and glazing have been reported for months. A survey of homebuilders, conducted by Burns Real Estate Consulting and released last week, found that 63% of the current construction delays of homebuilders are due to the shortage of windows. Lead times that were normally 2-3 weeks reached 4-15 weeks and for some products extending to 20-45 weeks.Further up the pipeline, there is a glass shortage. When exploding demand that started last year hit labor shortages and material shortages at glass manufacturers, they were unable to run at full capacity and were unable to meet that demand. They started prioritizing what they make and put their customers on allocation.This has affected all kinds of glass products, glassware, light fixtures, glass-doors, shower partitions, windows, and even WOLF STREET beer mugs, whose production has been “deprioritized” – it uses a lot of glass and is a low-margin product for the manufacturer – since the end of May, triggering the infamous WOLF STREET beer mug shortage.Window manufacturers that buy glass and manufacture window frames and glass-doors are running into their own problems. “Window manufacturing – even in the most automated facilities – is very labor intensive, which makes the industry even more susceptible to labor shortages,” Burns Consulting said in the note, pointing at PGT Innovations [PGTI] and Cornerstone [CNR], which both blamed labor shortages in their earnings calls.The supply of resin, which is used in the production of vinyl, which is used as cladding for some window frames, was disrupted when the Big Freeze hit Texas and the Gulf Coast. According to Burns, lead times for vinyl have expanded to 4-15 weeks, with some window manufacturers seeing 20-45 weeks. Manufacturers switched to alternate products for window frames, such as wood and aluminum, but they’re running into aluminum shortages….Construction companies are trying to sort their way through this with alternate materials in order to avoid pausing a project because of shortages of all kinds, including some petroleum-derived insulation materials (due to the Big Freeze), steel beams, roofing materials, copper wiring, plumbing fixtures…Builders have encountered shortages of a whole slew of appliances, making it difficult to deliver a competed house. And costs are surging across the board.The index for construction costs of singled-family houses spiked 11.8% year-over-year in September, unrelenting in this range over the past four months, and the most since 1979, according to data by the Commerce Department today. The index is up 17.6% from September 2019. Thisexcludes the cost of land and other non-construction costs:

U.S. consumers likely to pay more for propane heating during the upcoming winter - EIA - In our October Winter Fuels Outlook, we expect U.S. households that primarily heat with propane will spend more this heating season (October through March) than during the past several winters because of higher propane prices and slightly colder temperatures compared with last winter. About 5% of all U.S. households use propane as their primary space heating fuel. At least 14% of homes in Vermont, New Hampshire, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana use propane as their primary heating fuel. We forecast seasonal expenditures for the average household that uses propane as its primary space heating fuel will be $2,012 in the Northeast, $1,805 in the Midwest, and $1,643 in the South this winter. These forecasts are 47% more in the Northeast, 69% more in the Midwest, and 43% more in the South compared with last winter. Higher retail propane prices are the main contributors to these increases. Heading into the winter heating season, propane inventory levels are low, and wholesale prices are high, which is driving up retail prices. As of October 13, the wholesale propane spot price at the Mont Belvieu hub near Houston, Texas, was $1.42 per gallon (gal), up 90 cents/gal from the same time in 2020 and the highest level since February 2014, when especially cold weather and distribution bottlenecks led to significant price increases in the Midwest. Wholesale propane price increases have been driven by relatively high global demand, relatively flat U.S. propane production, and lower global production. These factors have contributed to relatively low propane inventories, which measured 71.7 million barrels on October 8 (including propylene at refineries), or 21% below the previous five-year average. Another factor is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast for a slightly colder winter this year compared with last winter. Cold weather can affect household heating expenditures in two ways. First, it raises the amount of energy required to keep a house at a specific temperature, which increases demand. Second, very cold weather events have the potential to cause supply disruptions. High propane demand and low propane supply situations can be more acute when fuel inventories are already low.

Struggling families about to take another hit: Home heating costs projected to soar -The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently projected that the cost of home heating for households will increase by 30 percent compared to last year, a level we have not seen since 2014. Energy costs have been low in recent years, allowing households to reallocate funds to other necessities. This winter, the higher prices will come as a shock to families that have become used to lower prices.The cost of home heating varies widely depending on whether the household uses electricity, natural gas, or delivered fuels such as fuel oil or propane. The bad news is the cost of all fuels is expected to rise this winter, with natural gas and delivered fuels to see the biggest increase. Last year, a home that used natural gas paid about $573 in heating costs during the winter months. This year EIA estimates they will pay about $746. Heating oil costs will increase from $1,210 to $1,734, electricity from $1,192 to $1,268 and propane from $1,368 to $2,012. For low-income families, the price increase is significant and could cause many to have to choose between heating their home this winter and paying for food, medicine and other essentials. About 29 percent of Americans who were surveyed had to reduce or forego expenses for basic household necessities to pay an energy bill in the last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey. And that was before natural gas prices started to rise. The many reasons for these increased prices are out of the hands of consumers — and even the utilities that serve them. The supply of natural gas is down considerably due to increased demand for natural gas last summer by electric utilities, increased exports of natural gas, shortages in Europe, and rising demand for all fuels as a result of the improving economy. This is in addition to supply disruptions causing gas wells to shut down in the Gulf as a result of Hurricane Ida. With so many factors placing a strain on the supply, there is no one solution to increase supply and thereby lower prices.

 Rents Spiked 10% to 25% in Half the Cities in October: How it’ll Push Up CPI Next Year, Ridiculing Fed’s “Transitory” Inflation - In 16 of the 100 largest cities, the median asking rent of a one-bedroom apartment spiked by 20% to 25% in October. In 40 of those 100 cities, rents spiked by 15% to 25%. And in 50 of those 100 cities – in half of them! – rents spiked by 10% to 25%.But there were only 11 cities where rents declined at all by any amount.In total, across the 100 largest markets, the median asking rent for 1-BR apartments increased by 11% in October compared to October 2020, and by 11.8% compared to March 2020, according to data in Zumper’s National Rent Report.These are advertised rents (“asking rents”) for apartments listed at various rental listing services, including Multiple Listing Service. They’re not actual rents that tenants have been paying for months or years. They do not include rents for single-family houses; just apartments.Asking rents show the current pricing of the market, as landlords see it. Actual deals negotiated between landlord and tenant may differ and may include incentives (one-month free, free parking, etc.), and the effective rents of signed leases could be lower. If a landlord gets too ambitious in their asking rents, tenants don’t bite, and landlord have to cut asking rents – which happened massively and with humorous effect in Newark, NJ, as we’ll see in a moment.Asking rents are a price tag. “Median” means that half of the apartments are listed at higher rents, and half are listed at lower rents, and the range on both sides can be big.Changes in asking rents reflect the underlying dynamics of the rental market. And these market dynamics differ dramatically from city to city, as we’ll see in a moment. Rents in New York City spiked, but not in San Francisco, were rents lumbered along multi-year lows and are still down 25% from the peak. As bizarre as it seems, the red-hot surge of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index this year to 5.4% in September, which matched June, and both were the highest since July and August 2008 (5.6% and 5.4%), with all four being the highest since early 1991 – well, this red-hot 5.4% CPI washeld down by the housing components, which account for one-third of total CPI and are exclusively based on rents.The two CPI housing components are “rent” and “owner’s equivalent of rent.” They’re based on large-scale surveys of tenants and homeowners. These surveys ask tenants about their actual rent, including in rent-controlled apartments, and they ask homeowners what they think their home would rent for.Over the past few months, the soaring “asking rents” have started to filter into those two CPI rent measures, and in September, CPI rent (red) increased to 2.4% (from 1.8% in the spring) and CPI “owner’s equivalent of rent” (green) rose to 2.9% (from 2.0% in the spring):

Over $22B worth of cargo is stuck on container ships off California -There was fleeting hope that Southern California port congestion had turned the corner. The number of container ships waiting offshore dipped to the low 60s and high 50s from a record high of 73 on Sept. 19, trans-Pacific spot rates plateaued, the Biden administration unveiled aspirations for 24/7 port ops, and electricity shortages curbed Chinese factory output. The reality is that the port congestion crisis in Southern California is not getting any better.The time ships are stuck waiting offshore continues to lengthen. There are simply too many vessels arriving with too much cargo for terminals, trucks, trains and warehouses to handle.The number of ships at anchor or in holding patterns is once again at record levels. According to the Marine Exchange of Southern California, 79 container ships were waiting off Los Angeles and Long Beach on Thursday, yet another all-time record.Marine Exchange data shows that ships waiting offshore on Thursday — including the 79 container ships as well as six additional cargo vessels carrying containers — had aggregate capacity of 597,250 twenty-foot equivalent units. To put that in perspective, that is 28% more than the Port of Los Angeles imported during the entire month of September and 70% of the combined Los Angles/Long Beach port complex’s September imports.Assuming ships are at capacity, how much cargo value is out there in the “floating warehouse”? What’s in each box, and its value, varies dramatically — it can be worth a few thousand dollars or several hundred thousand dollars. But Port of Los Angeles stats provide a good guide.The total customs value of the Port of Los Angeles’ containerized imports in 2020 was $211.9 billion. Given that imports totaled 4,827,040 TEUs, this equates to an average of $43,899 per import TEU. (Several other sources also estimated average cargo value at around $40,000 per TEU.) This suggests that the cargo currently waiting off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on Thursday is worth around $26.2 billion, more than the annual revenues of McDonald’s or the GDP of Iceland.

Los Angeles’ average anchorage-to-berth wait time hits record-high 13 days There was fleeting hope that Southern California port congestion had turned the corner. The number of container ships waiting offshore dipped to the low 60s and high 50s from a record high of 73 on Sept. 19, trans-Pacific spot rates plateaued, the Biden administration unveiled aspirations for 24/7 port ops, and electricity shortages curbed Chinese factory output. The reality is that the port congestion crisis in Southern California is not getting any better. The time ships are stuck waiting offshore continues to lengthen. There are simply too many vessels arriving with too much cargo for terminals, trucks, trains and warehouses to handle. The number of ships at anchor or in holding patterns is once again at record levels. According to the Marine Exchange of Southern California, 79 container ships were waiting off Los Angeles and Long Beach on Thursday, yet another all-time record. Chart: American Shipper based on data from Marine Exchange of Southern California. Data bi-monthly April-Nov 2020; daily Dec 2020-present Massive value of cargo stuck offshore Marine Exchange data shows that ships waiting offshore on Thursday — including the 79 container ships as well as six additional cargo vessels carrying containers — had aggregate capacity of 597,250 twenty-foot equivalent units. To put that in perspective, that is 28% more than the Port of Los Angeles imported during the entire month of September and 70% of the combined Los Angles/Long Beach port complex’s September imports. Assuming ships are at capacity, how much cargo value is out there in the “floating warehouse”? What’s in each box, and its value, varies dramatically — it can be worth a few thousand dollars or several hundred thousand dollars. But Port of Los Angeles stats provide a good guide. The total customs value of the Port of Los Angeles’ containerized imports in 2020 was $211.9 billion. Given that imports totaled 4,827,040 TEUs, this equates to an average of $43,899 per import TEU. (Several other sources also estimated average cargo value at around $40,000 per TEU.) This suggests that the cargo currently waiting off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on Thursday is worth around $26.2 billion, more than the annual revenues of McDonald’s or the GDP of Iceland. Imports trapped on ships for over a month Data from the Signal platform shows that wait time from anchorage to a berth in Los Angeles rose to an all-time high 13 days on Wednesday, up 65% from the beginning of September.

Ports Of Los Angeles, Long Beach To Fine Shipping Companies For Staying Too Long In Marine Terminals -Shipping companies at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach will soon be fined if their containers stay in marine terminals for too long, officials announced on Monday.Officials at San Pedro Bay Ports said in a statement that the fines are being imposed in an effort to “improve cargo movement amid congestion and record volume.”Starting on Nov. 1, the ports will charge shipping companies that fall into one of two categories: containers scheduled to move by truck and containers moving by rail.In the case of containers scheduled to move by truck, shipping companies will be charged for every container that stays in marine terminals for nine days or longer. For those moving by rail, shipping companies will be charged if the container stays for three days or more. Companies will incur a fine of $100 per container, which will increase in $100 increments per container per day.The fees collected will be re-invested into programs aimed at enhancing efficiency accelerating cargo velocity, and addressing congestion impacts throughout the San Pedro Bay, officials said.

Shippers Find New Supply-Chain Hurdles at Alternate Ports - When Flexport Inc. learned in the past month that an ocean carrier planned to shift cargo from the congested operations at the Port of Los Angeles to little Port Hueneme some 80 miles up the California coast, the freight forwarder found that trucking companies weren’t ready to go along with the changing direction of the imports. “We talked to trucking carriers throughout the market in L.A. and Oakland and the sense was that they could not support the volume if it moved through Port Hueneme,” said Jason Parker, the company’s head of trucking. The San Francisco-based company shifted gears, pulling 200 containers from the ocean booking and instead routing many of them to Los Angeles despite a likely longer wait there to offload goods. “The two-week delay coming to Los Angeles versus the Hueneme routing was going to cause less headache for the customers,” Mr. Parker said. The choice highlighted how shippers looking to avoid bottlenecks at major gateways by diverting goods through alternate ports face tough tradeoffs and new questions. How do they get furniture, clothing, toys and other items to stores and warehouses that are far from their established supply lines and have modest transport connections to other parts of the country? Smaller ports don’t have dozens of ships stacked up off the coast waiting for berth space, as do Los Angeles and the neighboring Port of Long Beach, Calif. The sites have drawn long looks from shippers and freight forwarders, and even brought them chartered ships from the growing number of retailers who are hiring vessels to get around the backups to get goods in stores for the holidays. But most don’t have enough dock workers to unload cargo or a steady supply of truckers or warehouse space to handle a big jump in cargo volumes, said Anthony Hatch, a rail transportation analyst and principal at ABH Consulting.

Bernstein’s Beat: Throughput at the Ports | The White House --Figure 1 shows inflation-adjusted goods and services purchases, pre- and post-pandemic, with both series indexed to 100 in February 2020. Though we expect the gap between these two series to diminish as COVID fades and as people rebalance their spending more evenly between goods and services, it remains wide.One implication of this shift in demand is an increase in the pressure on the supply chains that move these goods, both globally and domestically. This has, of course, been well-documented, with one prominent example being the congestion at the ports. However, one factor that has not been adequately understood is that, while the ports are clearly constrained, they are actually moving more containers in and out than in any year since 2000. As shown in Figure 2, they are moving about 19 percent more containers than in either of the previous two pre-pandemic years of 2018 and 2019.In other words, while supply constraints clearly persist, they are not due to less “throughput” at the ports. To the contrary, hard-working port employees have increased the rate at which they are moving containers. The rest of the supply chain—warehousing, trucking, and rail—simply has not been able to fully adjust thus far to the rapid and persistent uptick in demand for goods. CEA will continue to track this gap in demand between goods and services, one which we expect to close as COVID fades and more people re-engage with in-person services. It is also possible, though unknowable at this early juncture, that there has been a structural, more long-lasting shift in consumer demands. If so, such a shift would have broader implications for the future industrial and occupational structure of work.

A Simple Piece of Steel and Wheels Is Holding Up the Global Supply Chain – WSJ --Transportation executives wrestling with the supply-chain gridlock that is frustrating U.S. importers say the ability to clear the bottlenecks rests largely on a simple piece of steel and wheels that has long been an afterthought in global shipping.The trucking trailers, known as chassis and used to ferry containers from dockside terminals, have grown more difficult to find at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif., officials said, as a flood of imports has swamped the facilities and tied up equipment needed to keep goods moving.Executives close to the operations around the ports say unraveling the gridlock at the coast, including the backup of more than 70 container ships anchored offshore and waiting for berth space, won’t be possible without solving equipment problems, such as the chassis shortage, that have hamstrung operations.“The chassis are the biggest issue” in problems that stretch from the docks at the neighboring Los Angeles and Long Beach ports to warehouses deeper into California and intermodal rail yards in the Midwest, said Matt Schrap, chief executive of the Harbor Trucking Association, which represents port truckers in Southern California.The reason container ships are backed up outside the country’s biggest container seaport complex, according to Mr. Schrap and other officials: because dockworkers can’t unload ships quickly because terminals are full of boxes that truckers can’t pick up because they can’t find a chassis.There are roughly 115,000 chassis at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, according to DCLI, a major chassis provider. A little more than half of the frames are privately owned or leased. Truckers can lease the remaining 57,000 chassis from a common pool supplied by DCLI and two other providers. Normally, there are enough trailers to handle the thousands of containers moving through the ports. But executives say the unrelenting heavy flow of imports that began in the middle of 2020, coupled with labor shortages at warehouses and other cargo-handling facilities, has resulted in the frames being away from the ports for long stretches, crimping the ability of operators to turn around the equipment to carry new boxes.

 US Durable Goods Orders Slide In September | ZeroHedge --After four straight months of improvement, analysts expected US durable goods orders to drop 1.1% MoM in preliminary September data, but while they were correct on direction, the amplitude was not as significant with orders sliding 0.4% MoM (though notably August data was revised significantly lower from +1.8% to +1.3% MoM)...The 14.4% year-over-year rise in orders is the weakest since Feb 2021.Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders tumbled 4.2% MoM (as Defense orders surged 28.4% MoM)... However, there are some sliver linings in the data.Orders placed with U.S. factories for business equipment rose in September for a seventh straight month, pointing to ongoing strength in capital investment.Additionally, the value of core capital goods orders, a proxy of business investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, rose 0.8% after a revised 0.5% increase a month earlier.

Real Disposable Income Per Capita Inches Down in September - With the release of this morning's report on September's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -1.34% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -1.65% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.11% nominal and -0.23% real changes. The year-over-year metrics are 1.98% nominal and -2.29% real.Post-Great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021.The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 111% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 40%.

Wages see biggest three-month jump in 20 years -Americans’ wages saw the biggest three-month jump in 20 years in the latest quarter ending in September, according to available federal records, The Associated Press reported. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that wages increased 1.5 percent from the last quarter and benefit costs rose 0.9 percent. In comparison, wages for workers had increased 0.9 percent in the quarter ending in June and benefit costs rose during that time at 0.4 percent. Among the groups that saw the highest rise in pay included retail employees, at 5.9 percent compared to last year, and hotel, restaurant and bar employees, at 8.1 percent, according to the AP. Overall, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that workers’ pay increased 4.6 percent over the span of a year ending in the previous month, while benefit costs were up 2.6 percent. Data from the Commerce Department suggests that employees will be able to enjoy the wage increases they have witnessed recently, as inflation was mostly flat last month. However, personal incomes decreased by 1 percent. Federal unemployment benefits that expired last month could further impact those numbers for October. The data comes as industries, especially within the service sector, have been competing for workers who are demanding better pay and benefits amid the pandemic. Businesses like McDonald’s and Starbucks have been raising their wages in an effort to lure more employees as they seek to tackle renewed demand that has been unleashed by the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine and federal aid. Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported a dismal job report, saying that 194,000 jobs had been added in September in comparison to the approximately 500,000 jobs that economists were anticipating.

 Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 281,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending October 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 290,000 to 291,000. The 4-week moving average was 299,250, a decrease of 20,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 319,750 to 320,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Iowans who are fired for refusing COVID-19 vaccine will be granted unemployment benefits --Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds on Friday signed a bill that allows state residents to obtain unemployment benefits if they are fired for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine. Reynolds, who has previously opposed other government vaccine mandates, said in a statement that "no Iowan should be forced to lose their job or livelihood over the COVID-19 vaccine," according to The Associated Press. The Iowa Legislature passed the bill in a one-day special session Thursday with a 68-27 vote. The governor also announced Friday that she will join nine other states in suing the Biden administration over its vaccine requirement for workers, the Des Moines Register reported. Reynolds is vaccinated and has encouraged Iowans to get the vaccine, but has stated she believes getting the shot should be a personal choice. Nearly 7,000 Iowans have died as a result of the coronavirus, and Iowa is currently 23rd in the country for percentage of its residents fully vaccinated at 55.4 percent, the AP noted.

Raytheon CEO expecting to lose 'several thousand people' due to vaccine mandate -U.S. aerospace and defense company Raytheon Technologies expects to lose "thousand of employees" due to its coronavirus vaccine mandates, according to CEO Greg Hayes, reports Reuters. Hayes spoke with CNBC Tuesday and told the outlet that the company is developing a plan to replace the expected loss of unvaccinated workers, according to Reuters. Reuters reports that the company of 125,000 has said it is going to comply with President Biden's vaccine mandate and insist all workers be fully vaccinated by mid-December, which the company views as a means to bolster business.“Higher vaccination rates will continue to build confidence in the safety of air travel going forward,” Neil Mitchell, the company's chief financial officer, said, according to the Washington Post. However, Reuters reports that the Tomahawk-missile manufacturer's CEO said during a post-earnings conference call that he expects the federal government's vaccine mandate to cause "some disruption" to the supply chain.This echoes concerns that have been brought up by other industry groups that have warned that the Biden administration's vaccine mandate will worsen the country's supply chain problems amid the holiday season. Other business groups are asking Biden to delay the vaccine mandates for private companies until the holiday season has passed, as business have only until Dec. 8 to comply. The companies are asking for the implementation to be paused until no earlier than late January. Biden maintains that the mandates are necessary in order to turn the corner on the pandemic and continues to encourage businesses to issue the requirement, saying earlier this month, "These requirements work… more people are getting vaccinated. More lives are being saved."

Don't expect all of your pilots, flight attendants, or airport workers to be vaccinated this holiday travel season despite Biden's vaccine mandates -- The US airline industry is still reeling from President Joe Biden's executive order mandating vaccines for federal contractors, including airlines. And despite recently announced vaccine mandates from some major airlines, travelers should be prepared to fly on airlines without vaccinated staff. American Airlines and Southwest Airlines both announced vaccine mandates for workers in early October, only to backpedal a few weeks later.Southwest initially proposed placing unvaccinated workers on unpaid leave after December 8 but has since scrapped that plan, saying even those unvaccinated and without an approved exemption won't be fired after the deadline passes. "Employees who file for accommodation by the November 24 internal deadline will continue working past the December 8 federal deadline, while following all COVID mask and distancing guidelines, IF they have not received a final decision regarding their accommodation request by that date," a Southwest spokesperson told Insider, adding that the strategy accounts for both a worker's "effort to comply" and the time it takes to review an exemption. American, for its part, is indicating that it will not immediately terminate or ground unvaccinated flight attendants without exemptions, according to the union representing 28,000 American flights attendants in an October 18 update. Both airlines did not say how many workers remain unvaccinated or what will happen to those who remain unvaccinated without an exemption through the deadline.

Police across US refuse COVID-19 vaccines -- Across the US, police are refusing to comply with COVID-19 vaccine mandates, with many quitting their jobs or filing lawsuits rather than receive a vaccine. In August, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot mandated that all city employees not fully vaccinated by October 15 had to undergo COVID-19 testing twice a week. Each unvaccinated employee is required to submit a test every three to four days, on their own time and at their own expense. The testing option is available only until the end of this year. After December 31, city employees must be fully vaccinated, unless they have received an approved medical or religious exemption. The mayoral mandate sparked opposition among Chicago’s police. Nearly one-third of Chicago’s 13,000-member police department has so far refused to register their vaccination status, putting them on track for dismissal. City officials report that 21 police have been officially removed from active duty so far. John Cantanzara, head of Chicago’s largest police union, called for the union’s approximately 11,000 members to defy the city’s requirement to report vaccination status. After the city announced the vaccine mandate in August, Cantanzara compared it to Nazi Germany, telling the Sun-Times, “This ain’t Nazi Germany. … ‘Step into the ... showers, the pills won’t hurt you.’” He said up to half of Chicago’s police force would take unpaid leave rather than report their vaccine status. “It is the city’s clear attempt to force officers to ‘Chicken Little, the sky is falling’ into compliance,” he said last week. “Do not fall for it. Hold the line.”

Man arrested after vehicle runs into vaccine mandate protesters in California -- A California man was arrested Saturday after police said he drove a Jeep Wrangler into a crowd of people protesting COVID-19 vaccine mandates in Palmdale, according to the Los Angeles Times. Police said William Aslaksen, 64, was arrested about 90 minutes after the afternoon incident, the Times reported. One woman was injured, according to the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department. The woman, who was in her 40s but not identified by police, was taken to the hospital with non-life-threatening injuries. Aslaksen was held on $50,000 bail, according to the Times. He is set to appear in court on Tuesday in Antelope Valley. A witness told police that the man disagreed with the protesters and intentionally drove toward the crowd and then drove away, police said, according to the Times.

Gun violence rates in United States rose by 30% during COVID-19 pandemic Gun violence rates in the United States were 30% higher during the COVID-19 pandemic (1st March 2020 to 31st March 2021), compared to the year before, according to a study published in Scientific Reports. The authors compared the 13-month pandemic period from 1st March 2020 through 31st March 2021 with the 13-month pre-pandemic period from 1st February 2019 through 29th February 2020. They found 92,731 gun violence events resulting in injury or death in the U.S. across the whole study period. There were 38,919 gun-related incidents during the pre-pandemic period, compared to 51,063 incidents during the pandemic period – a 31.2% increase. During the pre-pandemic period, 16,687 gun-related deaths and 32,348 injuries were reported, compared to 21,504 deaths and 43,288 injuries during the pandemic period. Twenty-eight states showed a significantly higher risk of gun violence during the pandemic compared to the year before the pandemic. Only Alaska showed a lower risk of gun violence during the pandemic. The authors speculate that an increase in depressive symptoms during the pandemic and associated fire-arm related suicides, as well as increased access to firearms following an increase in gun purchases between March and June 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019 (based on higher numbers of background checks), may be among the reasons for the observed increase in gun violence rates. The findings suggest that while stay-at-home orders and social distancing measures are vital to containing the spread of COVID-19, awareness of the unintended social and economic stressors and state-specific steps to mitigate gun violence are also needed.

Massachusetts extends school mask mandate through mid-January --Mask requirements at most Massachusetts public schools will be extended until Jan. 15, 2022, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education announced Tuesday.“Masks remain a simple and effective measure to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and keep students in school safely,” the state's Department of Elementary and Secondary Education commissioner, Jeffrey Riley, said in a statement.Under the mandate, which was previously extended to Nov. 1 in August, students aged five and older in all grades, as well as staff, are required to wear a mask indoors, except when eating, drinking, or on a mask break, the press release said. Visitors are also required to wear a mask, regardless of vaccination status. Students may be exempt from the requirement if they have medical or behavioral reasons.

White House Knew About Letter That Compared Parents to Domestic Terrorists - The country's largest school board association collaborated with the Biden White House before sending a controversial letter calling on the FBI to investigate parents as potential domestic terrorists, according to previously unreported emails. The emails, obtained by Parents Defending Education through public records requests and reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon, reveal that the National School Board Association's president and CEO sent the letter to Biden on Sept. 29 without approval from the organization's board. The letter said that the acts of some parents at school board meetings across the country could be considered "a form of domestic terrorism and hate crimes." The emails also show that the White House asked the association for examples of threats against school board members days before Attorney General Merrick Garland created a task force of officials from the FBI and the Justice Department to determine how to prosecute alleged crimes at school board meetings. The letter makes clear that the White House was aware of the letter before it was released, while raising questions about whether the White House colluded with the association on the letter to prompt federal action. The letter has sparked allegations that the Biden administration is trying to stifle dissent among parents who oppose mask mandates and the teaching of critical race theory at America's schools. School board meetings have become battlegrounds for factions of parents torn on those issues. Parents in some districts have organized recall efforts to remove school board members who support mandates or radical curricula. The emails also show that members of the National School Board Association's board of directors voiced frustration that officials sent out the letter without their approval. One director at the association said that the letter had "reawakened hostilities" that were just beginning to subside.

Garland Defends Decision to Mobilize FBI Against Threats to School Board Members - Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday defended his decision to mobilize the FBI to work with state and local law enforcement in addressing rising threats of violence against school board members during testimony before Congress. "Parents have been complaining about the education of their children and about school boards since there were such things as school boards and public education," Garland said, facing a deluge of criticism from Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee who accused him of opening a "snitch line on parents." "This is totally protected by the First Amendment," he said. "True threats of violence are not protected by the First Amendment. Those are the things we are worried about here. Those are the only things we are worried about here. We are not investigating peaceful protests or parent involvement in school board meetings. There is no precedent for doing that and we would never do that. We are only concerned about violence and threats of violence against school administrators, teachers, staff." The criticism from Republicans comes in the wake of a memorandum the attorney general issued earlier this month that tasked the FBI and U.S. attorneys' offices to meet in the next 30 days with federal, state and local law enforcement leaders to outline strategies for addressing a spike in harassment, intimidation and threats of violence against school board members across the country.

Ohio school boards terminate membership with NSBA for labeling parents 'domestic terrorists' --The Ohio School Boards Association severed ties with the National School Boards Association after the national group sent a letter to President Biden requesting assistance from federal law enforcement at school board meetings. "OSBA believes strongly in the value of parental and community discussion at school board meetings, and we reject the labeling of parents as domestic terrorists," OSBA Chief Executive Rick Lewis and OSBA President Robert Heard Sr. said in a letter to the NSBA Tuesday. "There is tremendous value in allowing and encouraging the public to have meaningful input into the decision-making process. However, that participation should not come at the expense of interfering with the board’s ability to conduct its business or subjecting individual board members to threats of violence, abuse, or harassment. That said, dealing with such interference should be dealt with at the local level, not by federal officials." The NSBA sent a letter to Biden at the end of September saying that threats at school board meetings have increased in recent days, and requested assistance from federal officials. The letter included language linking parents to domestic terrorists. The letter came after numerous viral videos of school board meetings where parents spoke out against critical race theory curriculum being implemented in schools across the country. The governing board of the Pennsylvania School Boards Association also cut ties with the national organization last week over the letter. The Missouri School Board Association board of directors also cut ties with NSBA on Monday.

Missouri school board group leaves national association after letter compares parents to 'domestic terrorists'— The Missouri School Boards’ Association withdrew from its national organization over a controversial letter sent to the White House. The six-page letter from the National School Boards’ Association (NSBA) compared parents who act out at school board meetings to “domestic terrorists.” This comes as two heated topics, critical race theory (CRT) and mask mandates, take center stage nationwide. In Missouri, the state’s school board association (MSBA) said this letter does not follow local control. “To have a letter that is being interpreted as defining parents in a negative light was horrible — was just shocking,” executive director for MSBA Melissa Randol said Wednesday. “I immediately contacted the NSBA expressing our great disappointment with this and hoping they misspoke.” Before the letter was sent to the White House last month, NSBA represented 49 states. Missouri has now joined Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Louisiana in withdrawing its membership. “In terms of services to our member districts, there will not be a loss of any direct services to them,” Randol said. The letter asked for federal law enforcement to respond to the growing number of threats directed at school board members. “I want to emphasize throughout Missouri, anyway, it’s been very rare for the outburst to be actual threats,” Randol said. “Most of them, it’s just passion.” NSBA has since apologized, saying there was no justification for some of the letter’s language.

About Those Domestic-Terrorist Parents – WSJ Editorial Board --It took a few weeks, but the National School Boards Association has apologized for sending aletter to President Biden suggesting that “threats and acts of violence” at school board meetings might be “domestic terrorism.” The NSBA now admits there was “no justification for some of the language included in the letter,” which could have parents investigated under the Patriot Act for trying to influence what their children are taught.The retraction comes after tremendous blowback. First came parents at school board meetings with T-shirts saying “Parents are not domestic terrorists.” Then 21 state school board associations distanced themselves from the letter. The Ohio, Missouri and Pennsylvania state associations cut ties altogether.It turns out that when Chip Slaven, the NSBA interim executive director and CEO, and president Viola Garcia sent the letter, they did so without consulting their own board. But according to one of Mr. Slaven’s emails, they did work with White House staff.The NSBA has owned up to its mistake, but what about the Biden Administration? Days after the NSBA letter was sent, Attorney General Merrick Garland directed the FBI and U.S. Attorneys to intervene—without spelling out the federal authority or hard evidence for what the AG called a “disturbing spike in harassment, intimidation, and threats of violence.” This directive still stands.Education Secretary Miguel Cardona announced on Oct. 13 that he appointed Ms. Garcia to the National Assessment Governing Board, which oversees the standardized tests known as “the Nation’s Report Card.” This appointment stands too, even after Ms. Garcia’s organization had to apologize for her letter.Time for Mr. Garland to formally rescind his memo, calling off the FBI, and for Mr. Cardona to consider the message he is sending by elevating Ms. Garcia after she’s shown such poor, partisan judgment.

Moms protest over letter calling parents at school board meetings 'domestic terrorists' (7News) — A group of moms is really ticked off at the National School Boards Association over a letter it sent last month to President Biden comparing parental behavior at school board meetings to domestic terrorism. In Alexandria, Virginia Wednesday Moms For America protested the request by the NSBA to have the FBI investigate parents at some school districts in front of the NSBA headquarters.“What did the NSBA do? They called the parents domestic terrorists. Here is another parallel. The Chinese Communist Party and the NSBA do not want parents to be part of the educational system. They want to keep the education system their own indoctrination mill,” adds Xi Van Fleet, a Loudoun County mother.The NSBA lists 30 reference articles in its letter and Moms for America President Kimberly Fletcher believes many of the articles listed do not prove NSBA’s assumption that some parents’ actions are comparable to domestic terrorists including an arrest at a school board meeting in Illinois.“I happened to be at that school board meeting. Just a fluke. Our Vice President lives in Illinois. It was her school board meeting. She said hey, you are here do you want to come. So, I did. The man who was arrested at that school board meeting was arrested for no other reason whatsoever than the fact he wasn’t wearing a mask,"s said Fletcher.

Virginia woman says FBI staked out school board meeting --A Virginia mother said federal agents infiltrated her local school board meeting after she and other parents protested the Department of Justice for asking the FBI to go after people who disrupt school board meetings.Acrimony between some parents and school officials in Washington DC’s affluent suburbs has been simmering since a parent was forcefully arrested in June after claiming inclusive school policies led to the rape of his daughter.The tensions recently came to a boil when national school board leaders told the White House that disruptive parents should be treated as domestic terrorists, and the DOJ involved the FBI in the issue.“Maybe he [Garland] should mobilize the FBI into who’s threatening my family,” mother Stacy Langton told Fox News Wednesday, after her viral anti-porn speech at a September Fairfax County School Board meeting further inflamed tensions.In September, Langton criticized high school library books that contained sexual content involving children.Langton’s mic was cut after she read graphic passages from the books and railed against board members, saying “pornography is offensive to all people, it is offensive to common decency,” clips of the exchange showed.“There are children in the audience here,” one board member said.“This board is in violation of the law … this board should be charged accordingly,” Langton shouted to rousing applause from many supporters in the audience, who then chanted “go to jail.” The district later said it would remove the books to assess their content.

Garland Refuses to Rescind Memo Asking FBI to Probe School Board Threats - Attorney General Merrick Garland for the second time in as many weeks defended his decision to mobilize the FBI to work with local and state law enforcement to address the rise of harassment and threats of violence against school board members. Under increasing pressure from Republicans who have called on Garland to retract the directive, the attorney general once again clarified that the memorandum he issued earlier this month is directed at "concerns about violence, threats of violence, other criminal conduct.""That's all it's about. And all it asks is for federal law enforcement to consult with, meet with local law enforcement to assess the circumstances, strategize about what may or may not be necessary to provide federal assistance, if it is necessary," he said.The criticism from Republicans comes in the wake of a memorandum that tasked the FBI and U.S. attorneys' offices to meet in the next 30 days with federal, state and local law enforcement leaders to outline strategies for addressing a spike in harassment, intimidation and threats of violence against school board members across the country.The attorney general's directive came five days after the National School Boards Association wrote a letter to President Joe Biden asking for federal assistance in responding to the mounting threats and violence that they likened to "domestic terrorism" against school board members related to their decisions on COVID-19 school safety policies, critical race theory and more.During last week's hearing before the House Judiciary Committee, Republican ranking member Jim Jordan of Ohio hammered Garland for what he characterized as establishing "a snitch line on parents."The attorney general rejected the characterization that he was labeling parents as domestic terrorists and trying to silence their concerns – sentiments he reiterated Wednesday. Instead, he said, this is the process the Justice Department follows when it addresses similar situations of mounting violent threats against members of Congress and others. Garland also refuted Republican claims that he coaxed the school board association into writing the letter asking for help or worked in any way with the White House to address the matter in short order.

Teacher suspended for 'terrorist' comments to Muslim student -- A New Jersey assistant teacher has been suspended for allegedly telling an Arab American high school student “we don’t negotiate with terrorists” when he asked for more time to complete an assignment. Mohammed Zubi, 17, claims the incident happened at Ridgefield Memorial High School last Wednesday when he raised his hand during his math class to ask for additional time. The senior student, who is Muslim, told CNN the unnamed teaching assistant immediately hit back with the terrorist remark. “I’m looking around, at a loss for words, completely shocked,” Zubi said, adding the remark was loud enough for the entire class to hear. Zubi said he turned to the girl sitting behind him to confirm he’d heard the assistant teacher correctly.The staffer then approached him a few minutes later saying he hadn’t meant it like that, according to Zubi.“In my head I’m just like, what other way could he have meant that?” Zubi said. The student, who only returned to school Monday in the wake of the alleged incident, is demanding a public apology.

Georgia schools now account for almost 60% of all new Covid 19 cases -- — Almost 60% of all new COVID-19 cases are now in Georgia's K-12 schools, the state's top epidemiologist said Tuesday. Cherie Drenzek, state epidemiologist for the Georgia Department of Public Health, said the highly contagious delta variant is responsible for the surge. “The delta variant began spreading in Georgia around July 4,” Drenzek told a virtual meeting of the state’s Board of Public Health. “There has been an exponential increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths over the last 60 days.” Subscribe Image: Georgia Department of Public Health According to Monday’s COVID totals provided by the state Department of Public Health, more than 1.1 million Georgians have contracted coronavirus since the pandemic began in March 2020. A total of 20,705 Georgians have died, and there have been more than 76,000 hospitalizations. According to data provided by Drenzek to the board, there has been a 20-fold increase in cases; a 13-fold increase in hospitalizations; and a 17-fold increase in COVID deaths since July 1. However, both Gov. Brian Kemp’s office and Drenzek said state data has begun to Dr. R. Chris Rustin, director of the department’s Division of Health Protection, said as of Tuesday, more than 10 million vaccine doses have been administered in Georgia, with 4.7 million Georgians, or 45% of the state’s population, being fully vaccinated. About 5.4 million of the state’s residents, or 53%, have received at least one vaccine dose. Rustin also said Georgia is offering 136 sites for monoclonal antibody treatments, commonly known as Regeneron infusion. Rustin said preliminary data shows monoclonal antibody therapy is effective mostly early in treatment. “You have to get it early on,” Rustin said, who added the state Department of Public Health is collaborating with the Department of Community Health to support the existing sites across the state. “It’s important to stress this is not a substitute for vaccines,” Rustin said. The treatment, according to the Southeast Georgia Health System, helps the immune system stop COVID-19 from spreading in people with mild to moderate symptoms. The antibodies are synthetic proteins that are manufactured in a lab.

Tennessee health officials and teachers union ignore rising COVID-19 death rate among educators - Tennessee teachers and school employees are dying of COVID-19 at an increasing rate but local school districts, the state government and teachers unions have put little effort into publicly reporting who is dying and why. This was among the conclusions of a recent story, “COVID death toll among Tennessee public school employees rises,” by the Tennessee Lookout, an online publication comprised of veteran journalists previously employed by some of the state’s largest daily newspapers. Between the reopening of Tennessee’s schools this year—some systems as early as August—and October 22, at least 27 employees had died of COVID-19, the publication reported. That includes three in Rutherford County, one of the fastest growing counties in Tennessee, adjacent to Nashville/Davidson County, the state’s capital. “It’s a toll that steadily climbed as the school year got underway,” the Lookout reported. “In August, seven Tennessee public school employees died after contracting COVID. Fourteen employees died in September. Thus far in October, the Lookout has confirmed the deaths of five more public school employees.” As of October 22, there had been nearly 1.3 million confirmed COVID-19 cases in the state and 16,1585 deaths. The American Academy of Pediatrics reported COVID-19 cases among children peaked nationwide in September. Between the weeks of September 2 and September 30, over 1.1 million cases were reported among children. The Tennessee Department of Health reported 205,000 cases among children 5 to 18 years old as of October 15, with the highest spike in cases happening in the second half of this year, according to Action 5 News. And as of October 5, 20 children have died of COVID-19 in the state.

Liberty University threatened to punish students who reported being raped with conduct violations: report -Liberty University threatened to punish students who came forward with reports of being raped for violating the school’s code of conduct, according to a new report published Monday by ProPublica.ProPublica spoke to more than 50 former students and staffers at Liberty University and reviewed records from more than a dozen cases, which accused the school of discouraging and dismissing students who came forward with allegations of rape, reporting that in some cases they said they were threatened with punishment for breaking the school’s moral code, known as the Liberty Way.Three students who spoke to ProPublica said they were asked to sign forms upon reporting their rape incidents recognizing that they could be penalized for breaking the school’s ethics code. Potential infractions at the evangelical university included underage drinking and premarital sex.Two former students told the news outlet that they were penalized after reporting their assaults: one said she was fined $500 for alcohol consumption and was ordered to attend counseling. She said she was required to pay the fine or else she would not receive her transcript.Other students who said they were raped and spoke with the news outlet said they were advised to not report their incident, and some students claimed that university police officers dissuaded them from filing charges.A number of students told ProPublica that they spoke to staff members about their assaults but the university faculty ultimately remained silent, despite being legally required to report the conversations to the Title IX office.

Colleges see largest two-year enrollment decline in 50 years amid pandemic -Since the coronavirus pandemic began, colleges have seen their largest two-year decline in enrollment in 50 years, according to a study from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC).The report found undergraduate enrollment dropped 6.5 percent from its pre-pandemic level two years ago.In the last year alone, with COVID-19 restrictions continuing at universities around the U.S., enrollment numbers for undergraduates have fallen 3.2 percent.“Enrollments are not getting better; they’re still getting worse,” Doug Shapiro, executive director of the NSCRC, told CNBC. “Far from filling the hole of last year’s enrollment declines, we are still digging it deeper,” he added.Enrollment among freshmen in college has gone down the most among White and Black students, at a decline of 8.6 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively.Meanwhile, freshman Latino and Asian students also saw declines in enrollment, but at the lower rates of 3.4 percent and 1.8 percent.“As you go down the selectivity scale, the overall declines start to grow,” Shapiro said. “Community colleges remain the most adversely affected sector, experiencing a 14.1% total enrollment decline since fall 2019.” For freshmen, the drop-off over the same time period is even steeper, at 20.8 percent.

 Harvard graduate student workers to begin three-day strike October 27 - Graduate student workers at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, are set to begin a three-day strike Wednesday, October 27. The strike coincides with midterms and with freshman parents weekend at Harvard College, the main undergraduate school at Harvard. The main issues of contention are pay raises, third-party arbitration for harassment grievances and the demand by the Harvard Graduate Students Union-United Auto Workers (HGSU-UAW) for “agency fees” if a bargaining unit member declines to join the union. Strikers will include undergraduate and graduate teaching fellows, teaching assistants and course assistants, as well as graduate research assistants, who will cease grading, instruction and research. Workers voted overwhelmingly to authorize a strike in a September vote, with 91.7 percent, or 1,860 members, voting in favor of authorizing a strike. It is unclear how many members will participate in a strike; the last strike, which lasted most of December 2019, saw thousands of participants among the approximately 4,000 members at the time. Both the HGSU-UAW and the university administration have declared their desire to avoid a strike. Harvard President Lawrence Bacow told the Harvard Crimson, the student-run campus newspaper, last week, “We’ve made progress on many issues, and I certainly don’t think a strike is needed in order to come to agreement.” He continued, “It’s my hope and expectation that we will reach an agreement without a strike.” HGSU President Brandon Mancilla said, “We’re still committed to reaching an agreement with the University before [the strike deadline].” Nevertheless, unless the HGSU-UAW announces a last-minute deal, thousands of graduate workers strike on October 27, which is also the day of the next bargaining session.

Smoking's Long Decline Is Over – WSJ --The decadeslong decline in U.S. cigarette sales halted last year as people in lockdown lit up more frequently and health concerns around e-cigarettes caused some vapers to switch back to cigarettes.Before the pandemic, U.S. cigarette unit sales had been falling at an accelerating rate, hitting 5.5% in 2019, as smokers quit or switched to alternatives like e-cigarettes. The pandemic put the brakes on that slide. In 2020, the U.S. cigarette industry’s unit sales were flat compared to the previous year, according to data released Thursday by Marlboro maker Altria Group Inc.People had more opportunities to smoke because they spent more time at home and had more money to spend on cigarettes because they spent less on gas, travel and entertainment, Altria said. They drank more liquor, too, buoying spirits makers.At the same time, some e-cigarette users turned back to combustible cigarettes because of increased e-cigarette taxes, bans on flavored vaping products and confusion about the health effects of vaping, consumers and industry officials say. Altria on Thursday didn’t offer a projection for cigarette sales in 2021, saying it would depend in part on the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine and how consumers’ behavior changes after they are vaccinated. U.S. cigarette sales were even stronger last year than they were in 2015, when gas prices dropped sharply, allowing consumers more discretionary spending, and many people switched back to cigarettes after trying first-generation vaping devices. Those early products didn’t deliver nicotine effectively enough to satisfy some addicted cigarette smokers. But e-cigarette sales took off again in 2017, spurred by the popularity of a new vaporizer called Juul. E-cigarette sales were booming in the fall of 2019 when the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, investigating an outbreak of a mysterious lung illness, warned consumers not to use any vaping products. Sales took a nosedive. The illness later was linked to vitamin E oil in marijuana vaping products, but the public’s perception of e-cigarette safety hasn’t rebounded and neither have sales.

Adding SNAP benefits for older adults in Medicare, Medicaid can reduce hospital visits, healthcare costs – Food insecurity among older adults takes a toll on the nutrition and health of those affected. According todata from 2019, 5.2 million people age 60 and above in the U.S. were food insecure – equaling 7.1% of that population – and that number has likely grown during the COVID-19 pandemic. Older adults facing food insecurity are more likely to have chronic health conditions like depression, asthma, diabetes, congestive heart failure and heart attack. Only 48% of older adults who qualify for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides benefits to supplement budgets to purchase healthy and nutritious foods, are enrolled in the program. A study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine shows the importance of older adults taking advantage of this nutrition benefit, as it is associated with fewer hospital visits and lower healthcare costs. The study used a unique circumstance to better evaluate the association between SNAP participation and healthcare use and cost. In 2017, Benefits Data Trust – a national nonprofit dedicated to helping people access essential public benefits and services – was contracted by the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services to help people age 65 and over who were dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid enroll in SNAP. BDT provided outreach to these individuals by mail, a telephone-based screening, and – if the person chose to enroll in SNAP – the nonprofit would aid in filing an application. This circumstance allowed for previously unavailable linkages among data sets related to SNAP outreach, SNAP participation, and health care use and cost. Researchers used data from BDT’s outreach to more than 115,000 people age 65 and older in North Carolina between 2016 and 2020 who were dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid, and were eligible for SNAP but not enrolled. Almost 5,100 of those who received outreach about SNAP benefits enrolled in the program. SNAP enrollment was associated with a decrease in inpatient hospitalizations, emergency department visits, long-term care admissions, as well as fewer dollars in Medicaid payments per person per year.

Long-term COVID-19 side-effects may include memory loss, brain fog: research A recent study found that long-term COVID-19 patients may experience side effects scientists have dubbed "brain fog" months after their diagnosis.Memory loss and other cognitive dysfunctions are often considered part of the brain fog, according to the Mount Sinai Health System's study that was released on Friday. The study, which was published by the JAMA Network Open, included 740 patients who got COVID-19 and tested participants' memory using the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test, which provides participants with a series of words to determine how many they are able to recall. Other methods like the Number Span test were also used to determine how many numbers participants could recall after seeing them on a screen.The study did not specify if people who participated were vaccinated. Testing began in April 2020, before vaccines were available, and continued into May 2021. About one-fourth of patients had cognitive deficits related to memory encoding, or storing sensory experiences as memories, and 23 percent had trouble with memory recall, or accessing and retrieving memories that were already stored. On average, the study's participants were about 7.6 months past their initial COVID-19 diagnosis. They were also relatively young, with an average age of 49. However, a "substantial proportion" of patients in the study still showed cognitive dysfunction months after recovering from COVID-19 despite the coronavirus's known impact on older populations in particular. The study found that other side effects that were common for COVID-19 long-haulers included difficulty with processing speed, executive functioning, and category fluency. Hospitalized patients were significantly more likely to struggle with some of these side effects like attention and memory recall than their non-hospitalized counterparts, the study also found. Other lingering side effects included trouble breathing, abdominal issues, fatigue, pain, anxiety and depression, according to USA Today.

1 in 4 COVID patients hospitalized while vitamin D deficient die – Israeli study - Times of Israel - Hospitalized COVID-19 patients are far more likely to die or to end up in severe or critical condition if they are vitamin D-deficient, Israeli researchers have found.In a study conducted in a Galilee hospital, 26 percent of vitamin D-deficient coronavirus patients died, while among other patients the figure was at 3%.“This is a very, very significant discrepancy, which represents a big clue that starting the disease with very low vitamin D leads to increased mortality and more severity,” Dr. Amir Bashkin, endocrinologist and part of the research team, told The Times of Israel.For much of the pandemic, many scientists have suggested that the so-called sunshine vitamin may help people fight the disease. The new study represents one of the most compelling pieces of supporting research yet.“In short, after conducting this study I would say to people that during this pandemic, you certainly want to make sure that you have adequate vitamin D, because if you contract the coronavirus it will help you,” said Dr. Amiel Dror, who led the research.He analyzed data on 1,176 patients admitted to the Galilee Medical Center, 253 of whom had vitamin D levels on record, for a study that has been published online but not yet been peer-reviewed. Half of those with recorded levels were vitamin D-deficient. “We were very interested to see just what a big difference this made, with these patients some 14 times more likely, on average, to end up in severe or critical condition,” said Dror, who, like Bashkin, is a physician at Galilee Medical Center, as well as a researcher at Bar Ilan University.Numerous studies have been conducted on the association between vitamin D levels and the SARS-CoV-2 infection, and they have produced mixed results. Most of them measured vitamin D levels once patients were already sick, which can complicate interpretation of the results.

New study finds no risk of pregnancy loss from COVID-19 vaccination - A new study published in The New England Journal of Medicine has found no correlation between COVID-19 vaccinations and risk of first-trimester miscarriages, providing further evidence of the safety of COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy.The study analyzed several national health registries in Norway to compare the proportion of vaccinated women who experienced a miscarriage during the first trimester and women who were still pregnant at the end of the first trimester.“Our study found no evidence of an increased risk for early pregnancy loss after COVID-19 vaccination and adds to the findings from other reports supporting COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy,” write the study authors, which includes co-author Dr. Deshayne Fell, an Associate Professor in the School of Epidemiology and Public Health in the University of Ottawa’s Faculty of Medicine and a Scientist at the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO) Research Institute.“The findings are reassuring for women who were vaccinated early in pregnancy and support the growing evidence that COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy is safe.”Dr. Fell, currently leading an Ontario study on the effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines, and the international team behind the study found no relationship between the type of vaccine received and miscarriage. In Norway, the vaccines used included Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca.“It is important that pregnant women are vaccinated since they have a higher risk of hospitalizations and COVID-19-complications, and their infants are at higher risk of being born too early. Also, vaccination during pregnancy is likely to provide protection to the newborn infant against COVID-19 infection in the first months after birth,” the study authors write.

Pregnant women pass fewer coronavirus antibodies to unborn boys than girls: study -It's one of the pandemic's most persistent mysteries: Why are men and boys more vulnerable to severe COVID-19 than women and girls?A new study from Boston-based researchers suggests it may have to do with innate differences in their immune responses.The study looked at 38 women who were infected with the coronavirus during pregnancy, half of whom were carrying baby boys. Most of the women had mild or moderate COVID-19. The researchers measured the levels of antibodies in the expectant mothers' blood, and the fetuses' antibody levels using placenta tissue and blood samples from the umbilical cords.The results showed that the women pregnant with baby boys had fewer antibodies than those carrying girls. Additionally, pregnant women seemed to pass along fewer coronavirus antibodies to male fetuses than to females."There's obviously some crosstalk that's happening between the fetus and mother's immune system," Andrea Edlow, a maternal-fetal medicine specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital who co-led the study, told Insider.The findings may hint at broader differences in how men and women respond to COVID-19. Male fetuses seemed to develop an inflammatory response to the virus that wasn't detected among female fetuses. Edlow said that inflammation may be interfering with a mother's ability to pass coronavirus antibodies to her unborn baby boy.The recent study found that in the placentas of women carrying male babies, there was an over-expression of interferon stimulated genes, which promote inflammation. But those same genes were under-expressed in the placentas o f women with female fetuses."Those types of responses have been shown to be important in protecting the placenta and the fetus against infection when the mom has a viral infection," Edlow said. But she added that "it can also spill over into a harmful impact if it becomes too much."Researchers have observed a similarly heightened immune response among men with COVID-19. A 2020 study found that infected men had higher levels of cytokines — proteins that can promote inflammation — than women with COVID-19. That could make them more vulnerable to severe disease.

Poor immune response in many double- vaccinated blood cancer patients - More than half of double vaccinated blood cancer patients have been left with little protection against COVID-19, new research has found. Data from the SOAP-02 trial, published today in a letter to Cancer Cell, examines the level of immune protection following the delayed Pfizer vaccine boost in 159 participants, 128 of whom were cancer patients. Although administering the second dose increased rates of seroconversion (development of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2) in blood cancer patients from <20% following a single dose, 57% of double-vaccinated blood cancer patients still failed to mount an immune response to SARS-CoV-2 spike. The data highlight the continued vulnerabilities of blood cancer patients to COVID-19. In the absence of protection typically offered by vaccination, the authors argue that the study shows the importance of continuing public health measures to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and the urgency of the booster programme, particularly at a time of very high transmissions of the delta-variant in the U.K. Solid cancer patients, such as those with breast, urological or skin cancers, also showed poor responses to single-dose vaccination, with just 38% seroconversion rates. However, unlike their blood cancer counterparts, these patients showed strong responses to a second vaccine dose given at either 3 weeks or 12 weeks. While previous studies have argued that delaying the second jab in healthy controls improved the immune response that developed, this new study shows this was not the case for cancer patients. Because the authors’ findings have shown that the response to the first dose of vaccine was poor among patients with solid tumours, delaying the second vaccine dose extends the time period over which cancer patients as a whole remained extremely vulnerable. The trial is led by a cross-institutional collaboration between King’s College London and the Francis Crick Institute, with support from Cancer Research UK. The SOAP-02 trial assessed 159 individuals at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, including 31 controls, 72 solid cancer and 56 number blood cancer patients, and their responses following completion of the 2-dose COVID-19 Pfizer-BioNTech SARS-CoV-2 vaccine schedule. The study examined the production of antibodies (seroconversion) and their function (virus neutralisation); as well T cell responses following the delayed (12 week versus 3 week) second dose of the vaccine. Assessment of the rates of patients achieving both seroconversion and a good T cell responses highlighted the unfavourable situation of blood cancer patients with only 36% achieving antibody and T cell responses compared to 78% of solid cancer patients and 88% of healthy controls.

COVID-19 vaccination strongly protected 12- to 18-year-olds during Delta - Two new studies report that COVID-19 vaccination strongly protects against both infection and serious illness, respectively among adolescents age 12 to 18. Both studies covered periods when the highly contagious Delta variant was the predominant circulating strain. A CDC-supported study, led by Boston Children’s Hospital and published in the Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) on October 19, focused on severe COVID-19 disease requiring hospitalization. It found that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine were 93 percent effective at preventing COVID-19 hospitalization. The investigation used a case-control design. The cases were 179 vaccine-eligible patients hospitalized for COVID-19, ages 12-18 years; the 285 controls, matched for age, tested negative for COVID-19 or had asymptomatic infections and were hospitalized for other reasons. All patients were hospitalized in 16 U.S. states from June 1, 2021 to September 30, 2021, a period when pediatric hospitalizations were surging, especially in the southern U.S. where 61 percent of the cases were enrolled. Of the 179 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, only 3 percent were vaccinated, versus 33 percent of controls. Of the adolescents hospitalized for COVID-19, 43 percent were admitted to an intensive care unit, 16 percent required life support, and two died. All patients requiring ICU care or life support, including the two who died, were unvaccinated. Of the 3 percent of vaccinated adolescents hospitalized for COVID-19, none developed critical illness.

Moderna says COVID-19 vaccine safe, effective in kids 6 to 11 --Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine generated a strong immune response in children and was generally well tolerated, the company announcedMonday.In its study, Moderna determined that children aged 6 to 11 years old, who were vaccinated with two 50 microgram doses, had 1.5 times higher antibody levels than those observed among vaccinated young adults. The dosage used for the children is half of the 100 micrograms used for the initial two adult shots, but the same amount authorized for the booster shot. With the vaccine, these children showed a "robust neutralizing antibody response" and a "favorable safety profile" consistent with adolescent and adult response, the company noted. Most adverse events were considered mild or moderate, with the most prevalent symptoms being fatigue, headache, fever and injection site pain. The ongoing trial included more than 4,700 participants between the ages of 6 and 11 who will be monitored for a year after their second shot.

FDA panel could pave way for coronavirus vaccines for kids - A key Food and Drug Administration (FDA) expert advisory panel on Tuesday could pave the way for children as young as five to get vaccinated against the coronavirus. The panel is poised to weigh the evidence and provide the FDA with a recommendation to inform its decision on whether to authorize the vaccine from Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech for children. An estimated 28 million children would be eligible to receive the vaccine. Extending vaccine eligibility to children younger than 12 has been a major goal of public health officials and eagerly awaited by many pediatricians and families. The FDA has been under pressure for months to move quickly to authorize vaccines for younger children, one of the final barriers to overcome in the country's historic vaccination campaign. Pfizer's vaccine is already authorized for adolescents over 12 years old, and approved for anyone over 18, but many parents have been waiting anxiously for the ability to protect younger children, especially as the delta variant has proved far more contagious and dangerous for them. Pfizer submitted data to the FDA in late September, and formally asked for emergency use authorization earlier this month. An agency review of the data published late Friday found that the benefits of the vaccine "clearly outweigh the risks," indicating that FDA scientists have a favorable view of the evidence. A decision by agency regulators is expected in the days following the meeting; a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) panel is scheduled to meet Nov. 2 and 3 to recommend how the vaccines should be used. If the panel gives favorable recommendations and CDC Director Rochelle Walensky accepts them, the vaccination campaign would begin. "It would be good to start getting that vaccine in the children's arms as quickly as possible, because kids remain the last big unvaccinated reservoir of infection in the country, apart from adults who choose for various reasons not to take the vaccine," said Philip Landrigan, a pediatrician and professor at Boston College. Although the mortality rate and risk of severe COVID-19 is substantially lower in children than in adults, experts said parents shouldn't hesitate to vaccinate their children as soon as possible. More than 600 kids have died since the start of the pandemic In addition, schools across the country reopened just as the highly contagious delta variant became the dominant strain, which has changed the calculus.

Mandates likely work to increase vaccine uptake - Though almost 190 million people in the United States are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, that’s less than 60% of the country’s population. To increase that number, the federal government set in motion requirements that businesses with 100-plus employees mandate the vaccine. Some headlines decried such a move, saying it would hamper, not help the effort. But new research from a University of Pennsylvania team shows that such fears are unfounded. Rather than causing a backlash, the mandates strengthen vaccination intentions, results the researchers published in the journal Scientific Reports.. “Our experiments show very clearly that these requirements do not have any negative effects on vaccination intentions,” says Dolores Albarracín, the Alexandra Heyman Nash Penn Integrates Knowledge University Professor with appointments in the Annenberg School for Communication and the School of Nursing. “And, actually, they have positive effects across various ethnic groups and for people who have a tendency to oppose anything seemingly forced on them,” what’s known as psychological reactance, she says.

Mortality study reinforces safety of COVID-19 vaccinations — COVID-19 vaccine recipients had lower non-COVID-19 death rates than people who weren’t vaccinated, according to Kaiser Permanente research published October 22 in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. “Despite numerous studies showing the safety of COVID-19 vaccines, some people have remained hesitant to get vaccinated,” said lead author Stanley Xu, PhD, of the Kaiser Permanente Southern California Department of Research & Evaluation. “This study provides reassurance that the vaccines are very safe, and, in fact, people who received COVID-19 vaccines in the United States had a lower death rate than those who didn’t, even if you don’t count COVID deaths.” To determine mortality risk associated with COVID-19 vaccination, researchers evaluated the electronic health records of 6.4 million COVID-19 vaccine recipients compared to 4.6 million unvaccinated people with similar demographics and geographic locations from December 14, 2020, through July 31, 2021. The study looked at only non-COVID-19-related deaths to avoid masking any safety concerns regarding COVID-19 vaccine-related death with the protective effects of COVID-19 vaccine. The study population included members of 7 Vaccine Safety Datalink sites: Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Kaiser Permanente Northwest, Kaiser Permanente Washington, HealthPartners in Minnesota, and Marshfield Clinic in Wisconsin. The Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines require 2 doses for full vaccination, while the Johnson & Johnson adenoviral vector vaccine requires only one dose. The 1-dose and 2-dose vaccines had different comparison groups due to differences in when the vaccines were available and potential differences in the demographics of people who chose the 1- or 2-dose vaccines. All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, race, ethnicity, and Vaccine Safety Datalink site.

• Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine recipients had a mortality rate of 4.2 deaths per 1,000 vaccinated people per year after first dose, and 3.5 deaths after second dose.
  • The unvaccinated comparison group had a mortality rate of 11.1 deaths per 1,000 people per year.
• Moderna COVID-19 vaccine recipients had 3.7 deaths per 1,000 people per year after the first dose, and 3.4 deaths after the second dose.
  • The unvaccinated comparison group had a mortality rate of 11.1 deaths per 1,000 people per year.
• Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine recipients had 8.4 deaths per 1,000 people per year.
  • The unvaccinated comparison group had a mortality rate of 14.7 deaths per 1,000 people per year.

Pfizer COVID Vaccine Antibodies May Disappear in 7 Months, Study Says - Antibody levels may wane after 7 months for people who got the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, according to a new study published on the bioRxiv preprint server. In the study, which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed or formally published in a medical journal, researchers analyzed blood samples from 46 healthy young or middle-aged adults after receiving two doses, and then 6 months after the second dose. "Our study shows vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine induces high levels of neutralizing antibodies against the original vaccine strain, but these levels drop by nearly 10-fold by 7 months," the researchers told Reuters. In about half of the adults, neutralizing antibodies were undetectable at 6 months after the second dose, particularly against coronavirus variants such as Delta, Beta, and Mu. Neutralizing antibodies only make up part of the body's immune defense against the virus, Reuters noted, but they are still "critically important" in protecting against coronavirus infections. "These findings suggest that administering a booster dose at around 6 to 7 months following the initial immunization will likely enhance protection," the study authors wrote. BioNTech said a new vaccine formula will likely be needed by mid-2022 to protect against future mutations of the virus, according to the Financial Times. "This year, [a different vaccine] is completely unneeded, but by mid-next year, it could be a different situation," Ugur Sahin, MD, co-founder and CEO of BioNTech, told the news outlet. Current variants, namely the Delta variant, are more contagious than the original coronavirus strain but not different enough to evade current vaccines, he said. But new strains may be able to evade boosters. "This virus will stay, and the virus will further adapt," Sahin said. "This is a continuous evolution, and that evolution has just started."

Vaccinated just as likely to spread delta variant within household as unvaccinated: study - People who have received COVID-19 vaccinations are able to spread the delta variant within their household despite their vaccination status just as easily as unvaccinated individuals, a new study published on Friday shows. According to the study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal, people who contracted COVID-19 had a similar viral load regardless of whether they had been vaccinated. The study further found that 25 percent of vaccinated household contacts contracted COVID-19. while 38 percent of unvaccinated individuals were diagnosed with the disease. Researchers examined 621 symptomatic participants in the United Kingdom over a year. “Although vaccines remain highly effective at preventing severe disease and deaths from COVID-19, our findings suggest that vaccination is not sufficient to prevent transmission of the delta variant in household settings with prolonged exposures,” the study said. In contrast, researchers noted that the vaccination was more effective at curbing transmission of the alpha variant within the household, at between 40 and 50 percent. “Increasing population immunity via booster programmes and vaccination of teenagers will help to increase the currently limited effect of vaccination on transmission, but our analysis suggests that direct protection of individuals at risk of severe outcomes, via vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions, will remain central to containing the burden of disease caused by the delta variant,” the researchers wrote. The study comes as the United States has started to see a nationwide decline in COVID-19 cases, though it remains unclear if this decline will be permanent or if a resurgence of cases could come back in the winter. Earlier this month, former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb predicted that the “pandemic phase” of the COVID-19 will end with the approval of antiviral pills and COVID-19 vaccines for children and that the U.S. would soon transition into an “endemic” phase instead as Americans learn to live with the virus.

Horse hyperimmune antibody may help the fight against COVID-19, study finds -A study conducted by a consortium of Brazilian researchers has demonstrated that a hyperimmune serum consisting of purified antibody fragments produced in horses may be an efficient approach to combat COVID-19. Tests conducted in hamsters improved the animal clinical conditions. The neutralizing activity of the sera developed by the scientists has been proved to be high against the P.1 (Gamma) and P.2 variants. The results have been published in iScience.The research opens up the possibility for the development of passive immunization or treatment against SARS-CoV-2 infection. "By using the trimeric spike protein of SARS-COV-2 to immunize horses, a cocktail of purified IgG fragments (F(ab')₂) showing very high neutralizing activity was developed. This might be a useful countermeasure against COVID-19, with the added advantages of being an affordable alternative that can be produced in horse serum production facilities available worldwide," says Professor Leda Castilho, from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, who coordinates the laboratory that produces the recombinant spike protein used for horse hyperimmunization.The scientists are confident of the efficiency of the new product. "The main finding in our study is that the equine hyperimmune globulins antibodies developed against the spike protein of the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 had high neutralizing action against the new variants of the virus, such as the gamma strain. The polyclonal nature explains this high potency, which can be tailored now by using a combination of mutant spike protein from different variants as antigens," says Professor Jerson L. Silva, from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, and coordinator of the study.Equine immunization is a well-known and easily scalable technology proven to generate high titers of neutralizing antibodies, and has been used to treat many diseases, such as rabies, tetanus, and snake envenomation. Since equine antivenom products are routinely produced in both high and low-income countries, the Brazilian strategy could be easily reproduced in any part of the world and could be rapidly tested as a therapy or passive immunization tool for COVID-19.

India's Experience with Ivermectin - Back in May 2021, a fascinating article appeared on the World Health Organization's website. Given a recent comment offered by a reader regarding my recent posting on the confusion surrounding the use of ivermectin as a solution to the COVID-19 pandemic , I felt that this information was particularly pertinent. Here is the article: (embedded) Here is the key sentence in the article: "Those with symptoms are tested and given medicine kits and information on quarantining and isolation, both at home and in hospitals." While the article does mention that people without COVID-19 were urged to get vaccinated to prevent transmission of the virus, it is interesting to note that those who were tested because they were showing symptoms of COVID-19 were given "medicine kits". Anarticle on MSN (Microsoft Network) dated May 12, 2021 which is sourced from The Indian Express, an Indian media company which publishes newspapers in a selection of major Indian cities, provides us with two of the contents of these kits as shown on this screen capture: Here is the original article from The Indian Express: Here are some quotes from the news article with my bolds: "A year after the country’s first Covid-19 cluster, with 5 cases, was reported in Agra district, the Uttar Pradesh government has claimed that it was the first state to have introduced a large-scale “prophylactic and therapeutic” use of Ivermectin and added that the drug helped the state to maintain a lower fatality and positivity rate as compared to other states. Citing the results from Agra in the month of May and June last year, following which the use of Ivermectin, a medicine to treat parasitic ailments, along with Doxycycline was introduced as a protocol across the state for both prophylactic as well as treatment purposes, the state Health Department said it would conduct a controlled study once the second wave of the pandemic subsides... Uttar Pradesh was the first state in the country to introduce large-scale prophylactic and therapeutic use of Ivermectin. In May-June 2020, a team at Agra, led by Dr Anshul Pareek, administered Ivermectin to all RRT team members in the district on an experimental basis. It was observed that none of them developed Covid-19 despite being in daily contact with patients who had tested positive for the virus,” Uttar Pradesh State Surveillance Officer Vikssendu Agrawal said. Claiming that timely introduction of Ivermectin since the first wave has helped the state maintain a relatively low positivity rate despite its high population density, he said, “Despite being the state with the largest population base and a high population density, we have maintained a relatively low positivity rate and cases per million of population”. He said that apart from aggressive contact tracing and surveillance, the lower positivity and fatality rates may be attributed to the large-scale use of Ivermectin use in the state, adding that the drug has recently been introduced in the National Protocol for Covid treatment and management.

Antidepressant Fluvoxamine Significantly Reduces Covid-19 Hospitalization – WSJ - A widely available antidepressant holds promise as a treatment for Covid-19, according to a new study. Covid-19 patients who received fluvoxamine were significantly less likely to require hospitalization than those who didn’t, in the largest clinical trial evaluating the antidepressant’s effect on Covid-19 to date. Fluvoxamine belongs to a class of antidepressants called selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, or SSRIs. It is commonly used to treat obsessive compulsive disorder and is also prescribed for depression. In use for decades, fluvoxamine has been shown to be safe and costs about $4 for a 10-day course, said Edward Mills, one of the study’s lead researchers and a professor of health sciences at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario. He said fluvoxamine’s low cost and wide availability make it a compelling alternative to other Covid-19 therapies including monoclonal antibody treatments, which are costly and require an infusion. Another treatment, Merck & Co. and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP’s experimentalmolnupiravir pill, will cost the U.S. government around $700 per course in the U.S.“For both poor countries and even wealthy countries, it’s a great option,” Dr. Mills said of fluvoxamine.Past research suggests that fluvoxamine has anti-inflammatory properties, though scientists are still unsure of exactly how it works against Covid-19, said Dr. Mills. The drug may help blunt the out-of-control inflammation that can cause severe disease in Covid-19, he said.Other antidepressants, such as fluoxetine, which has the brand name Prozac, may have similar benefits against Covid-19, but that’s still being studied, he said. Dr. Mills says he and his colleagues are starting a trial looking at the effect of fluoxetine and inhaled steroids on Covid-19.For their trial of fluvoxamine, Dr. Mills and his colleagues looked at 1,497 patients in Brazil who had Covid-19 and at least one known risk factor for severe disease, such as diabetes, heart disease, lung disease, or being 50 years old or older. Researchers gave around half the patients fluvoxamine twice a day over 10 days while the other half received a placebo, and compared rates of hospitalization between the two groups.Patients were considered hospitalized if they went to a specialized Covid-19 emergency center for Covid-19 symptoms and had to be monitored there for more than six hours, or if they were admitted to a hospital with Covid-19 symptoms. The study didn’t enroll patients who had been vaccinated for Covid-19.The researchers found that patients who received fluvoxamine were 32% less likely to be hospitalized than those in the placebo group. Among patients who stuck to the regimen closely and reported taking the drug or placebo for at least eight days of the 10-day course, there was an even bigger difference—a 66% reduction in hospitalization and 91% reduction in death rates.

 Ohio records more deaths than births for first time in state history - Ohio recorded more deaths than births for the first time in history last year, with more than 10,000 more people dying than were born in the state in 2020. The Columbus Dispatch reported on Monday that around 143,661 Ohioans died in 2020, while about 129,313 were born. This trend appears to have continued so far this year, with 107,462 deaths and 100,781 births recorded. Deaths have never surpassed births in the 112 years since the Buckeye State began compiling data, according to the Dispatch. One expert who spoke to the Dispatch said that this unprecedented development was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. "It doesn't surprise me at all," the medical director of infectious diseases for OhioHealth, Joseph Gastaldo, told the newspaper. "It's COVID, clearly." Ohio Department of Health Director Bruce Vanderhoff declined to speak with the newspaper, though he noted in a prepared statement that the gap between births and deaths in the state has been narrowing for many years. The Dispatch noted that birth rates in Ohio actually fell by four percent in 2020, defying expectations of a pandemic birth boom. About half of U.S. states saw death rates exceed birth rates in 2020, the newspaper noted, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia.Alabama also saw its death rate surpass its birth rate for the first time."This past year, 2020, is going to be the first year that we know of in the history of our state where we actually had more deaths than births. Our state literally shrunk in 2020 based on the numbers that we have managed to put together and actually by quite a bit,"

 A record 26 children died from COVID-19 in the US last week - A record 26 children died from COVID-19 across the United States last week, according to the latest data from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) released Monday. More than a third of all US child deaths from COVID-19, or 234 of the 584 total reported deaths, have taken place in the past three months, directly coinciding with the mass surge in cases among children due to the reopening of schools. Reported deaths often lag behind infections and are a stark indicator of the ongoing devastating impacts of the pandemic on children and families. In the past three months since schools began reopening for the fall semester, over 2.1 million children were officially infected with COVID-19. Despite a slight decrease in infections this past week by 12,800 cases, mass infection continues among children, with over 100,000 weekly cases reported for the past 11 weeks straight. The AAP report reveals deeply alarming levels of infection and death among children, yet there are still significant limitations of the data presented. Texas, Alabama and Nebraska have halted their reporting of child COVID-19 cases, while Michigan, Montana, New York (excluding New York City), Rhode Island, Utah and West Virginia do not report the age distribution of deaths and are thus excluded from the AAP cumulative death toll. Additionally, only 24 states including New York City report pediatric hospitalization data. Furthermore, nowhere in the US does there exist robust testing of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases among youth or real contact tracing measures to identify cases and the breadth of community spread. The entire AAP report must be scrutinized as only a distorted image of the dark reality of the impacts of COVID-19 on children. The latest AAP data makes clear that both the Republicans and Democrats bear responsibility for the social crime being committed against young people across the US. The majority of child deaths in the latest AAP report, or 14 out of 26, occurred in Democrat-led states, while the Western and Northeastern regions of the US, comprised mostly of Democrat-led states, have seen the largest increases in pediatric COVID-19 infections. Both political parties are pursuing policies of “herd immunity,” or letting the virus rip through society, despite the posturing of Democrats and their backers in the trade unions that limited mitigation measures will stop the spread of the virus. The mainstream media is facilitating these policies by downplaying the severity of COVID-19 among children and the broader population, while pushing the narrative that the virus will inevitably become endemic. In an effort to downplay the deadly impacts of COVID-19 on children, there has been a full media blackout regarding the record number of child deaths this week and the ongoing mass infections among young people. The deaths of a child between the ages of zero and 17 in Kansas and a school-aged child in Minnesota are the only instances of minimal coverage in the major state news outlets of the 26 child deaths that took place last week. Notably, neither the six child deaths in Texas nor the three child deaths in Indiana have yet to receive any media coverage.

 Coronavirus dashboard for October 27: whither the winter wave, and the trajectory of endemic COVID + The Delta wave, which rolled in like a tsunami, continues to roll out like a tsunami as well. New cases are down almost 60% from their peak (at a still awful 67,000), while deaths, after some noise from data dumps, are down under 1500: Since deaths follow cases with roughly a 3 week lag or so, the current decline in cases suggests a decline in deaths below 1000/day in about 3 weeks. Here is what the trajectory of the Delta wave looks like regionally: Note that the Northeast and Midwest peaked later than the South and West. Delta burned through the dry tinder particularly quickly in the South (where said dry tinder was easily available), but is consuming the dry tinder more slowly in the more heavily vaccinated portions of the country - but it is still so infectious that it is able to ignite said dry tinder). Last year the winter wave began by October 1, as case counts of roughly 20,000 per day doubled to about 40,000 per day during the month. By contrast, this October cases have continued to decline and are now lower YoY. But we *may* be beginning to see this year’s winter outbreak, as cases in the Mountain States plus South Dakota are on an uptrend again, after about a week where *no* States were in an uptrend: This could be just noise at this point, but it bears watching. Finally, over the weekend I wrote that I expected waves from here on in to decline by about 1/3 to 1/2 of each prior wave, due to an increased % of vaccinated people, plus and increased % of those previously infected. As part of the FDA approval for children, we got a very useful update on seroprevalence, i.e., what % of the population has been infected, whether “confirmed” or not. Via CNN, here is what Dr. Fiona Havers, a viral disease specialist with the CDC, said: The seroprevalence of Covid-19 antibodies among children ages 5 to 11 appeared to increase from about 13% in November to December last year to 42% in May to June of this year, according to data that Havers presented to the VRBPAC members Tuesday. "Investigators also use seroprevalence to estimate the cumulative number of infections and compare that with the number of reported cases by age. Overall, for the general population, the jurisdiction-level infections-to-case ratio had a median of 2.4, with a range of 2.0 to 3.9," Havers said. "For children, the infections-to-case ratio was substantially higher, with a median of 6.2 cases per every one infection, with a range of 4.7 to 8.9," Havers said. "These seroprevalence data suggest that infections in children are less likely to be reported compared with adults. But children are at least as likely as adults to be infected with SARS-CoV-2." That is is an important reason why I think any winter wave will not be as bad as either Delta or last winter. Which is a way of introducing today’s final graph, showing those fully and partially vaccinated, plus the total # of infections: As of today, 67% of the entire US population has received at least one shot, and 58% have been fully vaccinated. About 14% have had *confirmed* infections. If the real number of infections is 2.4x that %, that amounts to about 34% of the total population having been infected. If we figure that infection + one shot is the equivalent of being fully vaccinated, and that infection on average gives resistance equivalent to one shot, then we get the following: 61% essentially immune. Equals 17% with some resistance. That leaves only 22% of the population as sitting ducks, right now.

COVID-19 surge spreads across Europe - Official propaganda of the end of the pandemic notwithstanding, the spread of COVID-19 in Europe is taking on ever more dramatic forms. Every day, about 220,000 people become infected with the virus and almost 3,000 die. Last week, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported a 7 percent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Europe. The WHO pointed to uneven vaccination rates across the continent and stressed that the development poses a significant threat. Significantly, according to the WHO, Europe was the only region of the world where the number of daily reported cases is rising. The situation is particularly acute in Eastern Europe. Yesterday, 1,064 people died of COVID-19 and 37,141 new cases were recorded in Russia. Experts assume that the number of unreported cases is far higher. In Ukraine (614 dead yesterday, 23,785 cases) and Romania (356 dead, 15,410 new cases), more people are dying now of COVID-19 than ever before in the pandemic. Yesterday, with overflowing emergency wards threatening to swamp the hospital system, Ukraine announced a two-week shutdown of schools in high-infection areas, including in the capital, Kiev. Only 6.8 million of Ukraine’s 41 million population, and less than one in four of Bulgaria’s population, are fully vaccinated. The situation in the Baltic States is also out of control. The cabinet in Latvia was forced to impose a night curfew and a month-long lockdown on Wednesday. Earlier, according to the health authority in Riga, there had been 1,400 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days—a record since the beginning of the pandemic. In many hospitals, intensive care units are already fully occupied, said Health Minister Daniels Pavluts. In the rest of Europe, the trend is moving in a similar direction. In Poland, the number of new infections is currently doubling from week to week. “If this situation continues, it will break through all the forecasts we have had so far,” warned Poland’s Health Minister Adam Niedzielski in Warsaw on Wednesday. Great Britain currently has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 cases, with about 50,000 new infections daily and around 200 deaths each day. In France, Italy and Spain, where cases had remained comparatively low after a surge in cases and deaths in the late summer, the number of daily new infections has again begun to rise after hitting a low October 10-15 of 4,203, 2,456 and 1,464, respectively. Germany has also recorded another drastic increase. For several days now, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has been reporting an increasing number of new daily infections; on Friday, there were almost 20,000. The seven-day incidence was 95.1 per 100,000 inhabitants, the highest level since mid-May. In its current weekly report, the RKI warns that the increase in the number of cases will accelerate as autumn and winter progress. Across much of Europe, the situation is worse than it was at the same time last year, when hundreds of thousands died of COVID-19 during the winter. Now a similar scenario is looming. The WHO warned in early September of 236,000 additional COVID-19 deaths by December 1. Nevertheless, the European governments did nothing to halt the spread of the virus and avert mass deaths. On the contrary: they opened schools and businesses and almost completely dismantled remaining protection measures such as mask mandates and school mitigation procedures. The current mass infections and deaths are a direct result of these policies.

Leaked Government Report Finds Vaccine Passports Could Actually Increase Spread Of COVID --A leaked government report has found that vaccine passports could actually exacerbate the spread of COVID because they would encourage people to visit smaller, more poorly ventilated venues. According to the report, compiled by the the Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport [DCMS], introducing the scheme could actually have the opposite intended effect. “If certification displaces some fans from structured and well ventilated sports stadia, this could lead to them attending unstructured and poorly ventilated pubs instead, where they will have access to more alcohol than if there were in the stadia,” states the report. “Evidence from the Euros showed spikes in cases associated with pubs even when England were playing abroad.” “The policy would also slash turnover for the organisers of events required to use vaccine passports, and necessitate the hiring of thousands of new stewards which may be hard to deliver,” reports the Telegraph. After Scotland tried to introduce vaccine passports, the process was called an “unmitigated disaster,” with staff at nightclubs receiving abuse and the technology repeatedly failing. Many venues decided to close early and lost 40% of their footfall, illustrating once again how the scheme will put innumerable nightclubs that operate on a profit margin of 15% out of business for good. Another example of how vaccine passports are largely useless is the fact that providing a negative test is no longer being offered as an option, despite the fact that the vaccinated can still transmit the virus.

A global tragedy: Up to 180,000 health care workers have died from COVID-19 - In the latest in a series of statistics showing the disastrous social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported that as many as 180,000 health care workers have died from the ongoing pandemic worldwide. “Between 80,000 to 180,000 health and care workers could have died from Covid-19 in the period between January 2020 to May 2021,” the WHO stated. These workers are among the approximately 15 million people worldwide who have died from the pandemic, according to “excess death” statistics published by the Economist. Health care workers, who have been battling the pandemic for close to two years, are approaching exhaustion. Speaking to the Guardian, Annette Kennedy, president of the International Council of Nurses, said that of the tens of thousands who lost their lives, many did so “many needlessly, many we could have saved.” “It’s a shocking indictment of governments,” she said. “It’s a shocking indictment of their lack of duty of care to protect healthcare workers who have paid the ultimate sacrifice with their lives.” She added, “They are now burnt out, they are devastated, they are physically and mentally exhausted. And there is a prediction that 10% of them will leave within a very short time.” With health care workers near the breaking point, COVID-19 cases are once again surging around the world, driven by massive outbreaks in Eastern Europe and the United Kingdom. The UK recorded 51,000 daily new cases Thursday, the highest level since January, and cases are rapidly approaching the all-time record of 67,775. Despite widespread vaccination, the daily death toll has risen, hitting an average of 130 deaths per day. One in 55 people tested positive for COVID-19 in England in the week beginning October 6, according to the Office for National Statistics, up from one in 60 the prior week. Among children ages 5-14, the number of daily new cases has surged to the highest level ever recorded. Young people between the ages of 11 and 16 had the highest test positivity rates, followed by children between the ages of 2 and 10. But the country worst affected on the entire Eurasian landmass is Russia, which registered 36,000 cases Thursday, the highest level ever, while the daily death toll has reached over 1,000. In the United States, the long-time global epicenter of the pandemic, another 1,626 people died Thursday, bringing the official US death toll to 755,497. But the real death toll, including unreported deaths, is more than 1.1 million, according to figures from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

China to start vaccinating children as young as 3 against COVID-19 --China plans to begin administering COVID-19 vaccines to children as young as 3 years old. Authorities in at least five provinces in China announced in recent days that vaccines would be made available and required for children ages 3 to 11, according to The Associated Press, making it one of very few countries that are currently vaccinating at such a young age.The U.S. and European countries have currently authorized vaccines for children as young as 12, though efforts to extend that to younger children are ongoing. Cuba, however, has authorized vaccines for children as young as 2, the AP reported. China has taken a zero-tolerance policy in terms of handling outbreaks, and 76 percent of its population is fully vaccinated.Four new cases were reported in Gansu province, which relies heavily on tourism. As a result, authorities closed all tourist sites there on Monday.Another 19 cases were reported in Inner Mongolia, where residents have since been ordered to remain inside, according to the wire service. As China prepares for the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February, concerns have increased about travelers bringing the highly contagious delta variant to the country, which has already banned foreign spectators. In preparation, China has begun administering booster shots ahead of the games.Questions about how protective China’s most widely used vaccines, which include shots from Sinopharm and Sinovac, are against the delta variant remain unanswered, though officials insist that they are, the AP added.

 COVID-19 cases, deaths surge in Russia as thousands of children show “acute” symptoms - As daily cases and deaths in Russia surge to 36,446 and 1,106 respectively, the Russian health minister Mikhail Murashko revealed on Tuesday that almost 60,000 children are currently getting treatment for COVID-19. Out of these, half show “acute” symptoms. Overall, there are now over 268,000 patients with active infections, and nearly 90 percent of hospital beds are filled. Murashko called the load on the health care system “colossal.” Without providing detailed numbers, one of the chief medical experts of the health ministry, Vladimir Chulanov, earlier stated that the number of hospitalized children has increased several fold over the past year. As of last week, over 600 children were hospitalized in Moscow alone. A doctor at the city hospital No. 52, Mariyana Lysenko, declared on Monday that, overall, close to 80 percent of patients in their hospital are in severe condition, and that they now had to create additional beds for children, who were being admitted at a rapidly growing rate. One hospital in St. Petersburg reported earlier this month that it was admitting an average of 85 infected children every single day. On average, only one out of four of those admitted was in a condition to be discharged that same day. Consequences from the disease can be severe even for many children who initially suffer a relatively mild course of the disease. Virologist Evgeny Timakov told the radio station Vesti FM on Monday that about 13 percent, that is more than every eighth child in Russia that has been infected, suffers from Long COVID. Even before the Kremlin reopened schools in September, the health minister acknowledged that half a million children had been infected with COVID-19 over the preceding year and a half. Horrific numbers about child infections have also been revealed in neighboring Ukraine, another center of the new surge. According to the country’s health ministry, over 154,000 children have been infected with the virus during the pandemic, with almost 29,000 currently ill and hundreds hospitalized. Forty-two children have died from COVID-19. Against this background, the “workfree week” that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced last week for October 30-November 7 will do far too little, far too late. In the Moscow region, the “workfree week” will start on Thursday, and in many other regions, including the second largest city, St. Petersburg, it will start on Saturday. Only a couple regions have imposed it earlier this week.

 Why are COVID-19 Cases Rising in the UK? - The United Kingdom has fared relatively well with its COVID-19 vaccine program, but it has recently seen case numbers jump.The number of daily cases surpassed 50,000 on Oct. 19. The7-day average stands at around 45,000 cases, according to official figures. This is up from 28,000 in mid-September. In the United Kingdom, schools have a mid-term break in the fall. With schools out for break right now, experts are divided on what the COVID-19 picture will look like over the next few weeks.Although some predict that case numbers could drop as the chain of transmission would be broken with families on vacation, some believe mixing with other populations could fuel another surge.Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious diseases specialist with the University of California, San Francisco, said the decreases in cases just over the past week support the first argument.“[I]t is possible that less mingling in schools during the holiday break is leading to that trend. However, with mitigation procedures in schools (such as testing), more transmission usually occurs in the community than in schools,” she said.That means the surge cannot be attributed to children alone.The recent upward trend in United Kingdom cases can likely be explained by a combination of factors.One factor may be related to waning immunity from vaccines.The United Kingdom was one of the first countries to roll out vaccines, administering them as early as December 2020. About 70 percent of the population had received their first dose by July 1.Data from Israel shows that vaccine immunity may wane after about 5 to 6 months, though that does not mean the vaccines provide no protection. They appear to provide less protection compared to when the initial dose was administered.The country has since ramped up its booster program, inoculating over 7 million people.However, despite an enthusiastic start to mass immunization, vaccination progress has stalled. September and the first 2 weeks of October, in particular, saw a loss of momentum, with relatively few people over 12 years old being vaccinated.Suboptimal vaccination coverage among children could also be contributing to the surge.

Mother’s occupational exposure to cleaning products and disinfectants could cause asthma in future children - New analysis of data collected in the large international RHINESSA and RHINEstudies, raises concern for adverse health effects of cleaning products and disinfectants, even in the next generation. A study led by UiB researchers have found that childhood asthma was more common if the mother had worked in a job with exposure to cleaning products and disinfectants before conception of the child. This may raise our awareness of how we use disinfectants and cleaning products in these times of pandemia. "Many future mothers are exposed to potent chemicals at work, but potential offspring health effects are hardly investigated, professor", says Professor Cecilie Svanes."However, emerging research suggests that parents’ chemical exposures before conception might influence the health in future offspring", she continues. The authors of this paper investigated 3318 offspring-mother pairs, the offspring participated in the RHINESSA study and the mothers participated in the RHINE study. Adult offspring gave information about their childhood onset asthma and other health aspects, and the mothers had informed about all their previous jobs. Jobs with exposure to cleaning agents and disinfectants included cleaners, nurses and other health care workers, cooks, etc. The analyses revealed that if mother had started working with such exposure years before the conception of her child, the child had 71% more asthma and/or wheeze. If she had begun such work after the child was born, no increase in asthma risk could be found. These findings suggest that cleaning agents and disinfectants might induce changes in the mother that are transferred to future offspring and influence their health.. Many women had quit exposed jobs many years before conception of the child, thus, the mechanism most likely involves influence on the germ cells (eggs). This study is quite unique, as very few studies allow for detailed investigation of parent’s job exposures in relation to offspring health outcomes. Considering health effects of cleaning agents directly on the person who is exposed, that is a very different story – a solid literature now shows how such compounds with their irritants and sometimes allergens, may harm the airways. But no previous study has investigated the effects of such exposure, years before conception, on future offspring.

Walmart Recalls Aromatherapy Spray Due To Presence Of Rare And Deadly Bacteria -- The next time a new pandemic is needed to trigger trillions more in QE, a perfect delivery mechanism is already available.Walmart has voluntarily recalled 3,900 bottles of an aromatherapy spray sold in 55 stores across 18 states after it identified a "rare and dangerous" bacteria in the product that has now been linked to four illnesses and two deaths, abc news reports. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Friday that it had identified the bacteria Burkholderia pseudomallei in the aromatherapy spray. The bacteria in question is a soil-dwelling bacterium endemic in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, particularly in Thailand and northern Australia, which infects humans and other animals and causes the disease melioidosis. According to Nature, "the high associated mortality rate, wide availability in the environment in endemic areas, intrinsic resistance to many antibiotics and the potential for aerosol spread has made this organism a potential bioterror agent." The spray, “Better Homes & Gardens Lavender & Chamomile Essential Oil Infused Aromatherapy Room Spray with Gemstones," and manufactured by Flora Classique, was found Oct. 6 in the home of a Georgia resident who became ill with melioidosis in late July, according to the CDC.

Millions of USED nitrile gloves – some stained with blood – are being redyed then shipped to the US amid spike in demand caused by COVID - Tens of millions of dirty, used, and counterfeit nitrile gloves - some of them stained with blood - have been shipped to the United States from Thailand in recent months as fraudsters look to take advantage of the surge in demand for medical equipment due to the COVID-19 pandemic.An investigation conducted by CNN has found that Thai companies are repackaging used gloves and reselling them worldwide, including in the US, where federal authorities are only beginning to understand the scope of the crisis.Earlier this year, Thai law enforcement agencies raided warehouses of companies who sold reused nitrile gloves abroad. Workers at the warehouses used dye to color the used gloves and laundry dryers to dry them after washing.In February and March, a US company warned the Biden administration that it had received shipments with visibly soiled gloves from a company based in Thailand.The warning was issued to both Customs and Border Protection as well as the Food and Drug Administration.Despite the warnings, the counterfeit shipments continued to be imported into the country as recently as July, according to CNN.

Air pollution in St. Louis helps coronavirus spread faster - The coronavirus spreads faster in areas with poor air quality, according to new research from Washington University. Researchers analyzed data on environmental, socioeconomic and health factors from a dozen U.S. cities, including St. Louis. They found that long-term exposure to microscopic air pollution and population density were both linked to faster coronavirus transmission — especially among communities of color. Black people and Latinos are more likely to live in areas with poor air quality, highlighting a potential reason why these groups have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic. Roughly one-third the size of a red blood cell, microscopic particles known as PM 2.5 penetrate deep into the lungs and cause a wide variety of illnesses. The dust-like pollution also reshapes the cells in our bodies, causing them to produce proteins that act as doorways. That allows the coronavirus to invade the cells. By creating more doorways for the virus to enter and attack cells, air pollution can increase the severity of COVID-19, said Rajan Chakrabarty, a Washington University aerosol scientist. “The communities that have been chronically exposed to high levels of air pollution have become extremely susceptible to this virus,” Chakrabarty said. A growing number of studies have found a link between air pollution and COVID-19 deaths. People who breathe polluted air have a nearly 10% higher risk of dying from the disease, based on some estimates. Compared to white Americans, Black people and Latinos across the U.S. are exposed to higher-than- average levels of air pollution from nearly every source, including power plants, construction and agriculture. They are also two to three times as likely to die of COVID-19 than white people.

EPA finds chemical contaminating NC river more toxic than previously assessed - A new assessment from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on chemicals known as “GenX” chemicals that have been found in a North Carolina river show they are more toxic than a Trump-era assessment found. The new toxicity assessment from the EPA says it’s safe for people to ingest less of the chemical than previously thought. It’s now safe to ingest “GenX” chemicals at a level of only three-millionths of a milligram per kilogram of body weight each day. A 2018 draft report from the agency said it was safe to ingest eight-hundred-thousandths of a milligram per kilogram of body weight. The new report states that in animal studies, GenX chemicals have shown impacts on the liver, kidneys and immune system as well as offspring development and have an “association” with cancer. Using animal studies, the 2018 draft found health impacts in the kidneys, blood, immune system and fetal development and said the data was “suggestive” of cancer. GenX chemicals have been found in North Carolina’s Cape Fear River, which has been a drinking water source for the Wilmington, N.C., area.EPA Administrator Michael Regan was formerly the head of North Carolina’s Department of Environmental Quality and secured anagreement with a company called Chemours over the contamination that required it to stop discharging its wastewater in the area. Chemours spokesperson Cassie Olszewski provided a statement to The Hill saying the company was "unaware" of data that would support the agency's conclusion, but that it was reviewing the technical info it released.

California city declares emergency over noxious smell - The city of Carson, Calif., declared a local emergency on Monday over a strong noxious smell that has been present in the area for weeks, the Los Angeles Times reported.Residents say the odor, which has been described as that of vomit, flatulence, rotting eggs and body odor, has caused them health issues. Among the problems reported are incidences of headaches and nausea. The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has recommended that residents avoid prolonged outdoor time during certain hours and that residents monitor their pets for side effects, including lethargy and trouble breathing. The smell, coming from the Dominguez Channel, has reportedly been overpowering the town since Oct. 3. The odor is reportedly stemming from hydrogen sulfide gas in decaying material in the channel, noted CBS Los Angeles.So far, residents say not much has been done to address the issue. Carson Mayor Lula Davis-Holmes said the emergency declaration will help get the governor's office on board with helping with management efforts.

Climate change lowers nutrition, increases toxicity at base of food web – Climate change impacts on freshwater systems can lower nutrition and increase toxicity at the base of the food web, according to research from Dartmouth College and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. The research, published in Scientific Reports, focused on the effects of warming water temperatures and browning—a discoloration of water caused by increased dissolved organic matter—using controlled outdoor environments known as mesocosms.Under the expected climate scenario of more warming, changing precipitation patterns, and higher levels of dissolved organic matter, the study looked at the fate of nutritious polyunsaturated fatty acids and toxic methylmercury in the food chain. The research found that a combination of warmer, browner water resulted in the higher transfer of methylmercury from water to phytoplankton at the base of food web. Lower concentrations of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids in phytoplankton were also observed.
Long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids—such as omega-3 and omega-6—support the growth and survival of animal and plant life by providing energy and by regulating immune systems. Methylmercury is a form of mercury that is easily absorbed by living organisms and acts a potent neurotoxin. Phytoplankton are the main suppliers of polyunsaturated fatty acids in aquatic ecosystems. According to the study, the less nutritious phytoplankton that result from browning and warmer water cause higher-level organisms—such as zooplankton, fish, other wildlife, and humans—to be exposed to more methylmercury as they consume more to achieve fatty acid quotas.

Pollution Causing Food Scarcity, Death for Florida Manatees -- Manatees are majestic creatures, and their presence near Florida brings a lot of awe from locals and tourists alike. But worsening pollution from agricultural runoff, wastewater and other pollutants is causing one of their primary food sources — seagrass — to run scarce.By October 2021 alone, nearly 1,000 manatees have died from food scarcity. This year's total is slated to double 2020's rate of manatee mortalities, which hit 593. These numbers are especially worrying compared to the previous 5-year average of 146 deaths.Continued pollution runoff and dumping is creating algal blooms on the surface of the water. This prevents sunlight from reaching the seagrass, which needs light to live and grow. Without it, the seagrass dies off, and the manatees are left with less and less food for their own survival. Already, about 58% of seagrass has died off in the Indian River Lagoon.Seagrasses are species of flowering marine plants with long, green leaves. They are one of the most productive and valuable ecosystems in the world. Seagrass produces oxygen and provides habitat and food for a variety of wildlife. Impressively, seagrass also captures over 80 million metric tons of carbon annually. But continued pollution from human activities is causing seagrass to die off at a rate of about two football fields per hour, according to Smithsonian Ocean.Food scarcity isn't the only threat to manatees, either. These creatures are often killed by boat strikes, waters that become too cold, and toxic red algal blooms. With winter just around the corner, experts are concerned to see even higher numbers of manatee deaths before year's end. "The cold hard fact is: Florida is at a water quality and climate crossroads, and manatees are our canary in the coal mine," J.P. Brooker, Florida director for the Ocean Conservancy, said in The Invading Sea. "They are dying off in record numbers because we humans have made Florida waters inhospitable to them. It's not just our manatees at risk, it's a coast-wide ecological problem."

Biden Endangered Species Act Reforms Rollback Seen as Blow to Farms, Ranches -- The Biden administration issued a proposal to rescind several regulatory changes to the Endangered Species Act finalized by the Trump administration, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service announced on Tuesday. In August 2019, the Trump administration finalized three rules. Most notably, the USFWS removed its blanket rule in the ESA that automatically grants the same protections for threatened species that are available for endangered species. The final rules did not affect protections for species currently listed as threatened but instead receive protections tailored to species' individual conservation needs. "The Endangered Species Act is one of the most important conservation tools in America and provides a safety net for species that are at risk of going extinct," Assistant Secretary for Fish and Wildlife and Parks Shannon Estenoz said in a news release. "If finalized, today's proposed actions will bring the implementation of the act back into alignment with its original intent and purpose -- protecting and recovering America's biological heritage for future generations." Farmers and ranchers across the country face challenges in managing their land when critical habitats are present. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said in a statement that turning back ESA reforms will hurt farmers and ranchers. "AFBF is now equally disappointed that in the space of three weeks, the Biden administration has proposed three different changes to these regulations, signaling a return to complicated and burdensome rules that do little to advance conservation goals," he said in a statement. ‘

Hidden costs of global illegal wildlife trade - An international team of experts, including researchers from the University of Adelaide, has highlighted that the illegal and unsustainable global wildlife trade has bigger ramifications on our everyday lives than you might think. In a paper published in Biological Conservation, the team of researchers investigated the many ways in which the trade negatively impacts species, ecosystems, and society – including people’s health, crime and our economies. “The trade in wild vertebrates alone is estimated to involve a quarter of terrestrial (land) species, while the trade in ocean life, invertebrates, plants, and fungi remains considerably overlooked and poorly documented. “As a threat to targeted species, the trade represents one of the five major drivers of biodiversity loss and extinction at global scale. “But these effects are just the tip of the iceberg.” In their paper the researchers also describe the incidental effects of wildlife harvesting on other species. These include disrupted interactions between species and ecosystem structure, altering species composition, functioning, and services – such as seed dispersal, pollination and carbon storage. Many species also provide habitat for others and their loss results in habitat depletion. The trade can further result in deliberate or accidental introduction of predators and pests in previously predator-free areas. This has an estimated cost of US$162.7 billion a year, and can cause havoc on the native systems through the spread of disease, and in extreme cases cause the extinction of native species. The paper also discusses impacts for human health. Dr Stringham said: “Two-thirds of emerging infectious disease outbreaks affecting humans, many leading to pandemics, have zoonotic origins, and of these, the majority originate in wildlife.”

 Honeybees use social distancing to protect themselves against parasites.Honeybees increase social distancing when their hive is under threat from a parasite, finds a new study led by an international team involving researchers at UCL and the University of Sassari, Italy. The study, published in Science Advances, demonstrated that honeybee colonies respond to infestation from a harmful mite by modifying the use of space and the interactions between nestmates to increase the social distance between young and old bees. Co-author Dr. Alessandro Cini (UCL Center for Biodiversity & Environment Research, UCL Biosciences) said: "Here we have provided the first evidence that honeybees modify their social interactions and how they move around their hive in response to a common parasite."Honeybees are a social animal, as they benefit from dividing up responsibilities and interactions such as mutual grooming, but when those social activities can increase the risk of infection, the bees appear to have evolved to balance the risks and benefits by adopting social distancing."Among animals, examples of social distancing have been found in very different species separated by millions of years of evolution: from baboons that are less likely to clean individuals with gastrointestinal infections to ants infected with a pathogenic fungus that relegate themselves to the suburbs of anthill society.  The new study evaluated if the presence of the ectoparasite mite Varroa destructor in honeybee colonies induced changes in social organization that could reduce the spread of the parasite in the hive. Among the stress factors that affect honeybees, the Varroa mite is one of the main enemies as it causes a number of harmful effects on bees at individual and colony level, including virus transmission.

Heavy rain, snow, and high winds in the West, severe thunderstorms shift to the East, U.S. - A strong storm off the Pacific Northwest will continue directing a stream of heavy rain, high elevation snow and gusty to high winds over much of central and northern California, the Sierra Nevadas and the Great Basin Monday, October 25, 2021. Thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage are possible over parts of the southern and central Appalachians into the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic region today. "Evacuations were ordered, roads were closed and hundreds of thousands of people were without electricity Sunday night as a powerful storm roared across parts of California and the Pacific," Jan Wesner Childs of TWC reports.1 According to PowerOutage.us, 400 000 customers were reported without power across three western states on Sunday -- 175 000 in California, 179 000 in Washington, and 28 000 in Oregon. By 08:00 UTC on October 25, the total number dropped to 213 800 -- 149 600 in California and 64 200 in Washington. Heavy rains resulted in flash floods and several landslides, including one in the Dixie Fire burn scar that shut down Highway 70 near Tobin in Plumas County. Sacramento broke its all-time one-day rainfall record on October 24 with 134.6 mm (5.3 inches). The previous record of 134.1 mm (5.28 inches) was set in 1880. 10.2 mm (4.02 inches) of rain was recorded in downtown San Francisco on the same day, making it the city's wettest October day ever -- the previous October rainfall record was 6.2 mm (2.48 inches) set on October 13, 2009. This was also the 4th wettest day ever in San Francisco since records began. A strong storm just west of the Pacific Northwest Coast will impact the West Coast over the next several days, NWS forecaster Ziegenfelder noted at 20:06 UTC on October 23.2 Strong onshore flow will stream moisture into Northern/Central California, producing heavy rain and snow over parts of California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a High Risk of excessive rainfall over the Sierra Nevada Mountains through Monday morning. Significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding flash is expected with the storm, with some areas that normally do not experience flash flooding flooded. Heavy snow is also forecast for the Sierra Nevada Mountains through late Monday afternoon. The excessive rainfall threat lessens to a Slight Risk over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains with a Marginal Risk over other parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and parts of the Southern California Coast from Monday into Tuesday morning. The excessive rainfall threat for California ends on Tuesday, October 26. Moreover, rain and highest elevation snow will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Intermountain Region and continue into Monday. On Monday, after the front passes, the snow levels will lower over the Northwest portion of the country. On Tuesday, rain and higher elevation snow move into the Rockies, with rain developing over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains by Tuesday evening.

Atmospheric river unleashes record rainfall, flooding in California - A historic atmospheric river drenched central and northern California Sunday with record-setting rains. The high-impact event dented the region’s drought and quelled the fire season but triggered flooding and mudslides.Up to a half-foot of rain fell at low elevations and over a foot in the mountains. Both San Francisco and Sacramento established new rainfall records for October, just after enduring a historic shortage of precipitation.At the highest elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada, multiple feet of snow fell, a crucial addition to water resources in the drought-plagued region.Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow swaths of exceptionally moist air, sometimes sourced from the tropics, that can produce excessive amounts of precipitation. This river was rated a level 5 out of 5 in the San Francisco Bay area by the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes in La Jolla, Calif.The parent “bomb cyclone,” the rapidly intensifying ocean storm that drove the atmospheric river into the West Coast, proved the most intense on record offshore the Pacific Northwest. It had a minimum air pressure reminiscent of Superstorm Sandy in 2012, bringing hurricane-force winds over the open ocean waters and 50 to 80 mph gusts along the coast from Seattle to San Francisco.Two people were killed near Seattle when a falling tree crushed their car. The combination of wind and rain left up to 170,000 customers without power in California on Sunday; that number had diminished to around 115,000 on Monday morning. More than 150,000 customers lost power around Seattle.The atmospheric river was winding down in intensity Monday while sinking south toward Southern California, but a look at the long-range pattern suggests the likelihood of continued atmospheric river events in the coming weeks. The atmospheric river drenching the West Coast unleashed record rainfall and moisture that brought deluges and flooding to the rain-starved region. Sacramento ended a record 212-day-long streak last Monday, reversing course and suddenly experiencing its wettest day on record on Sunday — a whopping 5.44 inches of rain fell in 24 hours, equating to what would ordinarily fall in two and a half months.In downtown San Francisco, 4.02 inches of rain fell Sunday, its wettest October day on record and fourth wettest day of any month in records dating to the 1849 during the Gold Rush.San Francisco International Airport also recorded 4.02 inches of rain on Sunday, bringing its monthly total to 5.5 inches, or roughly 10 times the average for the month. No measurable rain fell there between April and September.Just north of San Francisco, in Marin County, several locations in the coastal mountain range saw over a foot of rain. Mt. Tamalpais registered 16.55 inches since Saturday and nearly 27 inches since the middle of last week. The Marin County fire department tweeted that it responded to 650 weather-related calls between Sunday and Monday, including three water rescues, 20 vehicle accidents, 163 downed trees and 185 public assists for flooding issues.In Nevada, Reno received 2.82 inches of rain between Sunday and Monday, an October record. Here are some other select totals from California:

'Bomb Cylone' Dumps Historic Rain on California, Brings Flooding and Landslide Risks - A Category 5 "bomb cyclone" dumped historic amounts of precipitation across much of Northern California Sunday, creating dangerous flooding and landslide conditions in the region scarred by recent wildfires.The "atmospheric river" dumped more than 5.35 inches of rain on Sacramento on Sunday, the most in a 24-hour period since record keeping began during the Rutherford B. Hayes administration (1877). Other locations at higher elevations were expected to see even more precipitation, and as much as 2 feet of snow were expected in the Sierra Nevada.Flooding was reported across the Bay Area. Climate change, caused by the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels, not only worsens extreme precipitation events by increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, it also worsens the risks of landslides in areas incinerated by climate-supercharged wildfires.State police closed a stretch of State Route 70 in two counties after multiple landslides in the Dixie Fire burn scar, and the NWS issued flash flood warnings for both Dixie and Caldor Fire burn scars. Numerous locations across the state were under evacuation orders because of the potential for mudslides in fire scars."If you are in the vicinity of a recent burn scar and haven't already, prepare now for likely debris flows," the Sacramento weather service tweeted. "If you are told to evacuate by local officials, or you feel threatened, do not hesitate to do so. If it is too late to evacuate, get to higher ground."The historic rainfall will not undo the massive drought, made more severe by climate change, the state faces. "Even with 5 inches of rain in Sacramento, our deficits are immense," Jeffrey Mount, a geologist and water expert at the Public Policy Institute of California told the Sacramento Bee. "We're basically missing two years of 'precip' in this basin. It's not a drought buster."

A 'bomb cyclone' is battering much of California - A "bomb cyclone" in the Pacific is dumping extreme rain and several feet of snow on California. The wild weather follows a summer of extreme drought and wildfires, and it could bring flooding, mudslides and debris flow to the parched and wildfire-scarred Golden State.The term "bomb cyclone" refers to the rapid intensification process — "bombogenesis" — that forms it. Such storms occur when pressure in the central region of the storm descend by at least 24 millibars (an atmospheric pressure measurement) in 24 hours, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The bomb cyclone has merged with a Category 5 "atmospheric river" — giant flowing trains of moist air in the sky. Atmospheric rivers, like hurricanes andtornadoes, are rated based on their potential for damage; a Category 5 is the strongest, or "most hazardous," bringing the chance for gusty winds, flooding, debris flow and mudslides, according to the California Department of Water Resources. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Sacramento issued numerous warnings on Sunday (Oct. 24) concerning extreme rainfall, flooding and debris flows. In some regions, rainfall may reach into the double digits in inches."Lots of rain on the radar this morning," the NWS stated on Twitter just before 7 a.m. PDT (10 a.m. EDT or 1400 GMT). "That won't be changing, heavy rain and strong winds are expected for today. Debris flows possible on recent burn scars and roadway flooding will be likely."Flash flood watches are in effect for most of Central and Northern California, The Washington Post reported. Last week, Sacramento received its first rainfall since March 19, ending a 220-day streak without a drop. Now, the region is forecast to receive more than half a foot of rain.The Pacific Northwest and Northern California may see near-tornado or hurricane-force winds gust up to 60 mph (97 km/h), along with waves crashing on the shoreline at up to 20 feet (6 meters) high. The Bay Area is expected to face a deluge at least through Monday (Oct. 25); Oakland may experience record water levels in an atmospheric column (known as Precipitable WATer value or PWAT); and 5 to 8 inches (12 to 20 centimeters) of rain may fall in the Sierra Nevada mountain range. Regions that previously faced severe wildfire, such as those hit by the Dixie and Caldor fires, are already receiving reports of debris flows, and flash floods are possible in regions of Sacramento that had fires as long ago as 2018, according to the NWS.It's unusual for a storm like this to happen so early in the season, according to the Washington Post. That left emergency responders little time to plan, as they were still battling the wildfires that had plagued California for much of 2021.Those fires also raise the risk of catastrophic flooding and mudslides. That's because after a fire, soil that would normally soak up rainfall can be as water-repellant as pavement, according to NWS. As that water tumbles downhill, it can also fuel erosion and pick up ash, sand, silt, rocks and burned vegetation, according to NWS. Wildfire burns begin to heal once regrowth happens. But "the early timing of such a major storm means that the 2021 burn scars have had very little opportunity yet for vegetation recovery," Amy East, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Santa Cruz, wrote in an email to the Washington Post. "The Dixie Fire is still smoldering, and that area is showing only the very beginning of plant regrowth."

California faces flash flood watches amid 'Bomb Cyclone' and 'Atmospheric River' - A “bomb cyclone” and an “atmospheric river” brought more than half a foot of rain when they slammed California's Bay Area on Sunday. The region also received warnings of high winds, flash floods and heavy snow in the Sierra Nevadas, according to The New York Times. Experts also warned that some areas burned by recent wildfires could be subject to mudslides, according to the National Weather Service for the San Francisco Bay Area. Some parts of San Mateo county were under evacuation orders because of the potential for flash flooding. At least 66,000 people in the Bay Area were without power on Sunday and over 3,000 people were working on restoration efforts, J.D. Guidi, a spokesman for Pacific Gas and Electric, told the Times. Additionally, over 130 flights were delayed and 52 were canceled at San Francisco International Airport as of Sunday morning, Cathy Morrison, an airport official, told the Times.An atmospheric river happens when concentrated moisture extends over the ocean and the lowest layer of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, the bomb cyclone, a storm that gathers strength very quickly, was expected to push the atmospheric river south, Sean Miller, a California meteorologist, explained to the Times. Just last week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) extended California's drought emergency statewide and called on Californians to conserve more water as reservoirs run low during the state's second driest year. In addition to the drought, California has faced a particularly difficult year for wildfires, as six million acres have been burned in the state since the beginning of this year, the Times reported.Reports from earlier this month said about one in every eight acres of the state had been burned by wildfires in the past decade.

The dangers of a California megaflood - The ongoing record breaking rainfall in California, which started on Saturday, raises the danger of a potential megaflood. While California suffers many devastating natural disasters, such as earthquakes, as well as wildfires and droughts—which have repeatedly broken records in recent years under the influence of man-made climate change—among the worst natural disasters to hit the western United States in the last 160 years was the Great Flood of 1862. Lithograph of K Street in the city of Sacramento, California—during the Great Flood of 1862 Set off by a series of storms that inundated much of the land from Oregon to San Diego, the agriculturally rich Central Valley became a vast inland sea, 300 miles long and 20 miles wide. The state capital in Sacramento was under water for six months, forcing the government to relocate to San Francisco. One-third of California’s state property was destroyed, along with one in every eight private homes. Thousands of people died, possibly up to 1 percent of California’s entire population. And while floods of this magnitude used to happen every 200 years or so, models generated by Daniel Swain and researchers at UCLA’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences found that they will now happen roughly every 65 years, due to the effects of climate change. Swain also predicts a 20 percent increase in the intensity of megastorms, meaning the next one could be far more devastating. Worryingly, the period leading up to the Great Flood of 1862 was similar to today. The state was emerging from two decades of severe drought. Farmers and ranchers had been praying for a wet winter. At first, it looked like they would get what they wanted. The storms began in November, 1861, with weeks of snow at high elevations. But then it started to rain. In California, it rained for 43 straight days, starting on Christmas Eve. Entire communities were swept away. Transportation, mail and communication across the state were disrupted for a month. California’s new governor, Leland Stanford, had to take a rowboat to get to his inauguration. In Nevada, the Carson Valley became a lake. In Idaho, the Boise River swelled to two miles wide, washing away portions of the Oregon Trail. The Colorado and Gila Rivers flooded in New Mexico Territory, turning Fort Yuma into an island.

NY, NJ issue states of emergency ahead of nor'easter -New York and New Jersey both issued a state of emergency on Monday ahead of a nor'easter that descended on the region Tuesday morning. "I am proactively declaring a State of Emergency to ensure we can provide the necessary resources to respond to this storm and protect lives and property in regions where the forecast is calling for significant rainfall," New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) said in a release on Monday"I am encouraging New Yorkers to prepare now for inclement weather expected over the coming days and urging commuters to take precaution ahead of heavy rainfall expected tomorrow morning," she added.New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) also declared a state of emergency in all 21 counties of the state.“The anticipated Nor’easter storm is forecasted to bring significant flash flooding, coastal flooding, and wind gusts across New Jersey,” Murphy said. “Residents should stay off the roads, remain vigilant, and follow all safety protocols.”According to Hochul's offices, the region could see more than four inches of rain and several areas could experience more than an inch of rain per hour, creating a flash flooding risk.In New Jersey, flash flood warnings have been issued for Newark, Jersey City and Paterson until 10:30 a.m. According to the National Weather Service, strong winds along the coastal region of the area should be expected into Wednesday with moderate coastal flooding possible during high tide on Tuesday.The New York Times reported that storm drain in midtown Manhattan were struggling to keep up with the heavy rains Tuesday morning, creating large puddles on the streets.

First nor'easter of the season hits Northeast, leaving more than 597 000 customers without power, U.S. -A rapidly intensifying coastal storm affecting parts of the Northeast U.S. since October 25, 2021, brought strong winds and flooding rains, from New Jersey into most of southern New England. This is the first nor'easter of the season, with the worst effects forecast to hit New England late October 26 through October 27.Parts of New Jersey received up to 125 mm (5 inches) of rain by 11:00 LT on October 26. Central Park in New York City received 68.58 mm (2.7 inches) of rain by 13:00 LT while Islip on Long Island received 66.04 mm (2.6 inches).Strong winds brought by the storm left more than 29 000 customers without power in Massachusetts by 23:59 LT on October 26 (03:59 UTC, October 27).As the storm continued intensifying, the number of customers without power in Massachusetts rose to 189 000 by 08:25 UTC (up from 150 000 at 08:00 UTC), 21 620 in Maine, and 9 030 in New Hampshire.The number rose to more than 587 000 by 16:00 UTC -- 492 000 in Massachusetts, 82 000 in Rhode Island, and 13 000 in Connecticut.The Nor'easter responsible for producing flash flooding and powerful winds across much of the Northeast will begin to wane in strength and impact today as the surface low moves out into the North Atlantic, NWS forecaster Kebede noted at 07:00 UTC today. Additional rainfall amounts will be marginal, but winds will remain strong until this evening when the surface pressure gradient weakens. Wind advisories, high wind warnings and flood watches remain in effect for parts of southern New England. Autumn-like temperatures will return to the East Coast for the next several days in the wake of the departing Nor'easter as well as the arrival of high pressure over the Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast.

Nor’easter Brings Hurricane-Force Winds to Massachusetts - — Hurricane-force winds from an early-season nor’easter swept through coastal New England on Wednesday, a day after battering the New York City area, sending trees crashing onto power lines and cutting electricity to hundreds of thousands of households. The winds, which gusted to 94 miles per hour on Martha’s Vineyard in the pre-dawn hours, picked up a small aircraft at the New Bedford Regional Airport, lifting it over a fence and onto a roadway, and peeled the roof off an apartment building in Quincy, Mass., snapping the eight-inch bolts that held it down. “Something extreme happened in order to cause this much damage,” James Marathas, the executive director of the Quincy Housing Authority, told Channel 7 News in Boston. Scores of Massachusetts communities canceled school for the day, and subway and commuter rail service was delayed while employees removed debris and fallen trees from the tracks. At 7 p.m., more than 400,000 customers in Massachusetts, nearly 50,000 in Rhode Island and about 3,000 in Connecticut were without power, according to PowerOutage.us, which aggregates data from utilities across the country. The Weather Service in Boston warned coastal residents, “For your safety indoors, stay away from windows!” It said the Nantucket area had experienced a bomb cyclone, an explosive deepening of pressure that can lead to powerful wind gusts. Overnight winds surpassed any recorded this year, said M.L. Baron, who operates a weather station in Fairhaven, Mass. Had it occurred during the winter, the storm would have been a “catastrophic blizzard,” he said, setting back the region for weeks. Still, he said, coastal areas saw “the damage and destruction hurricane-force winds can deliver.” Shortly before 5 a.m., Mr. Baron listened as two men on a boat docked near New Bedford called the Coast Guard for a rescue because the dock had disintegrated and live power lines were in the water around them. “They were trapped, they couldn’t get off the boat,” he said, until rescuers carried them safely to land. Coastal communities were buffeted by winds overnight, and residents awoke to widespread power outages and downed trees. The fire department in Duxbury, Mass., reported receiving 90 distress calls overnight, and warned residents against trying to navigate the roads. In Cohasset, Mass., winds smashed the press box at a high school football stadium to splinters. A tree was uprooted on Boston’s historic Beacon Hill, peeling the brick-paved sidewalk like a ribbon. Timothy Cox, the Fair Haven harbor master, spent Wednesday afternoon retrieving boats that had broken from their moorings and come to rest on land. National Grid, an energy provider for New York, Rhode Island and Massachusetts, dispatched 2,400 field personnel to repair damaged wires, poles and transmission lines, the company said in a statement, describing “significant impact to our system” that could last days in some places. The same storm struck the New York City area on Tuesday with heavy rain, strong winds and the threat of flash floods, although the region was largely spared the type of deadly weather brought by the remnants of Hurricane Ida last month.

'Hurricane-force' nor'easter smashes Northeast, cuts power to more than half a million -Later Tuesday night, peak wind gusts as high as 87 mph were reported at Scituate, Massachusetts. Additionally, gusts of 83 mph were recorded in Wellfleet, Massachusetts. Video footage captured by Clement showed powerful winds blasting coastal New England areas in what looked like scenes straight out of a hurricane. Powerful winds blasted the coast of Massachusetts, as a nor’easter moved through the region on Oct. 26, bringing with it heavy rain and rough surf. Nor'easters are often associated with snow, but this week's storm featured only rain, although it still had the defining quality to make it a nor'easter -- the direction of the wind. Some of the strongest winds blew from the northeast which churned up rough seas along the coast and localized power outages across the region. According to M.L. Baron, a weather station operator in Massachusetts, this nor’easter could have been a “catastrophic blizzard” had it occurred during the winter. Speaking with The New York Times, Baron said a winterized version of this storm would have set the region back for weeks. Even still, Baron said “the damage and destruction hurricane-force winds can deliver” from the storm have left widespread damage in his area of Fairhaven. In nearby Duxbury, the local fire department received 90 distress calls on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, The New York Times reported, largely due to downed trees and power lines."This storm really rivaled some of the hurricane impacts that we’ve had across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. "I’m a New Englander and we’re used to big storms in New England, but this was an impressive storm." In New Bedford, Massachusetts, a parked plane found itself relocated to the middle a road after strong winds picked up the aircraft from New Bedford Regional Airport. According to social media reports, the plane was damaged after smashing against a tree and being carried over the airport's fence. Wind gusts of over 100 mph were recorded in the nearby town of Duxbury, while the highest gust of the day was reported in the Cape Cod town of Truro, which reached 113 mph. These gusts rivaled the wind readings atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire, which stands at an elevation of 6,267 feet. The observatory on Mount Washington is known to be one of the windiest spots in the U.S. when a major storm passes overhead. Wind gusts overnight Tuesday peaked at a blustery 81 mph. Later Tuesday night, peak wind gusts as high as 87 mph were reported at Scituate, Massachusetts. Additionally, gusts of 83 mph were recorded in Wellfleet, Massachusetts. On Tuesday, the storm underwent a process called "bombogenesis," which occurs when a storm's central pressure drops by at least 0.71 of an inch of mercury (24 millibars) within 24 hours. The storm just barely met the criteria on Tuesday, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Isaac Longely. The East Coast bomb cyclone was not as powerful as the one that bombarded California with over a foot of rain and hurricane-force winds, but it was still enough to cause disruptions and power outages across the region. Over 490,000 were without power in Massachusetts early Wednesday, according to PowerOutage.us. An additional 92,000 customers were without power in Rhode Island. . Elsewhere in the Northeast, the rain and wind were more disruptive. A month's worth of rain fell at Islip, New York, on Tuesday with 3.98 inches of water reported at the airport. Typically, 3.97 inches of rain falls in Islip in all of October. This broke the old record daily rainfall set in 1981 of 1.50 inches.

Plymouth Homeowners Scramble For Emergency Supplies After Damage From Nor’easter –— Once the worst of the Nor’easter was over in Plymouth on Wednesday, homeowners were on the move, hoping to get supplies that many discovered are now sold out. Generators, gasoline, and chainsaws are all in high demand right now. One of the only places with power on the South Shore was a local gas station, where people were filling up and taking a break from the damage back home. “We lost some siding of the house, and we lost a couple trees around the house,” said Kholoud Swenson, a Plymouth resident. There is already a nationwide supply shortage from the pandemic. Add to that everybody needing gasoline for their generators, and there was a 20-minute wait time just to get gas. People in Plymouth said the storm turned out way worse than they expected. “You know what, I think I underestimated it,” said Patrick Gorse. “I knew it was going to be windy. I just wasn’t expecting to wake up to a tree in my driveway.” The damage sent many people to the shop, trying to get materials and chainsaw repairs as the storm raged on. But to get a generator, it was too late. “Generators were virtually out. I think I have one left,” said Scott Morrison, owner of Morrison’s Power Equipment. “Availability this year has been hard to get anyway, so we didn’t start with a lot. But those are gone.” Morrison’s Power Equipment shop was hard at work fixing chainsaws. They can only sell the limited supply they have available. “Finished goods has been tough. They come in drips and drabs,” said Morrison. “You’ll place an order for maybe 50 units, various models. And you might get two of this one, three of that one, and a bunch on back order.” For those at home who have generators, experts recommend you keep them away from your doors or garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.

‘No gas stations anywhere’: Residents on the hunt for fuel as power outages grip South Shore, Cape Cod – (WHDH) - Power outages are not only leaving neighborhoods in the dark in Massachusetts; they are also causing major problems at gas stations. People on the South Shore waited in long lines Wednesday as they looked to fill up their vehicles. Strong winds had toppled trees which in turn brought power lines down and left many gas stations in the dark. Lines leading into a gas station in Hanover stretched down the road. In Hingham, some drivers came as far away as the Cape to fill up. “We came from down in the Cape, Hyannis, Barnstable County,” one man said. “Complete power outage, trees down, there’s no gas stations anywhere. There’s nothing along Route 3 coming up in Plymouth. So we tried maybe 15 different stops, and just because of the weather and everything there’s nothing. The lines are ridiculous, everything’s closed.” Gov. Charlie Baker said during a press conference Wednesday that the power will be restored and there is no need to panic. He urged drivers to take only the fuel they need to get by for the next couple of days. “If you don’t need to fill it all the way up, fill it halfway up, or three quarters way up, so whoever is behind you has an opportunity to fill up as well,” he said. “When we talk about a multi-day event, we are not talking about many multiple days. We’re talking about taking a few days to clean up.”

Cape Cod power outage: Shelter opens as storm damage clean begins— As utility workers took rain-soaked chainsaws to thetrunks of toppled trees across Cape Cod on Wednesday, local, county and state officials, representatives from Eversource and meteorologist Frank O’Laughlin were camped out in the Multi-Agency Coordination Center (MACC) planning the region’s emergency response to an ongoing storm that has left more than 150,000 Cape and Islands customers without power. On Wednesday at 6 p.m. a shelter was opened at Barnstable Intermediate School, 895 Falmouth Road, Hyannis. Pets allowed. As the nor'easter moved toward the Cape Tuesday night, some team members, including Barnstable County Emergency Preparedness Specialist William "Chip" Reilly, worked from the MACC room — located in the old chapel at the former Barnstable County jail off Route 6A in Barnstable Village — overnight.Others, including Sean O’Brien, Barnstable County’s emergency preparedness coordinator and director of the county department of health and environment, arrived before dawn. “The roads were pretty rough,” O’Brien said.As gusts rattled the windows in his office Wednesday afternoon, O’Brien compared the storm lashing the eastern half of the state to 2013’s Winter Storm Nemo “without the snow.” That storm, which made landfall in the dead of winter, caused widespread power outages that lasted as long as a week for some customers.“We’re looking at such a heavy load of power outages,” O’Brien said. “The benefit is that the temperatures are not cold.” O’Brien, who had just finished a conference call with leadership from all of the Cape’s towns, said that the MACC team has been focused on prioritizing the region’s most pressing needs as the storm continues to blow.“Eversource is out in all the towns,” he said. “What they’re trying to do is cut and clear, and once all those things are done, they’re going to start working on power restoration. Long-term care facilities. Hospitals. Public safety buildings. Those are our priorities, get them up and running.” “Our biggest thing right now is trying to get power back to people if possible," O'Brien said. But if folks do need some assistance in terms of a shelter they should contact their town officials.William Hinkle, director of media relations for Eversource, said Wednesday morning that restoring power to the Cape and Islands will be a multi-day effort. O’Brien urged Cape residents to stay off of the roads as long as possible.“Folks are out there trying to restore power,” he said. "We do not know how long it will take because we’re still in the middle of it. We have to wait until the winds die down."As of 4 p.m. Wednesday, 72% of Eversource's electric customers on the Cape and Martha's Vineyard were without power, or 144,692 customers, according to Eversource's online outage map. The extent of the outages showed a slight improvement from the 77% of customers who didn't have power Wednesday morning in the region.On the Cape, all Eversource customers in Provincetown were without power late Wednesday afternoon, followed by Bourne at 98%, Falmouth at 94%, Sandwich at 91% and Orleans at 91%.Here's a breakdown of total outages and percentage of customers without power by town on the Cape and Martha's Vineyard as of 4 p.m.:

Hurricane Rick hits Mexico's southern Pacific coast – (AP) — A compact Hurricane Rick roared ashore along Mexico's southern Pacific coast early Monday with 105 mph (165 kmh) winds and heavy rain amid warnings of potential flash floods in the coastal mountains.The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Rick made landfall as a Category 2 storm about 15 miles (25 kms) east of the port of Lazaro Cardenas around 5 a.m. local time. Later Monday morning, Rick was 40 miles (65 km) north of Lazaro Cardenas, moving north at 9 mph (15 kmh).Forecasters said the storm was relatively compact, with hurricane force winds extending out only 15 miles (30 kilometers) from the eye, but they said its winds and rain could still cause problems in around the larger resort of Acapulco to the east. The storm's maximum sustained winds had decreased to 80 mph (130 kmh).The center warned that Rick could produce flash floods and mudslides in the mountainous terrain on the coast.“During its passage over land, it will cause intense to torrential rains and possible mudslides and flooding, as well as rising levels in streams and rivers, in the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco,” Mexico’s National Water Commission said in a statement.Authorities in Lazaro Cardenas said they had opened six emergency shelters for people who might want to leave low-lying areas. Zihuatanejo opened a shelter at the municipal auditorium.The state of Guerrero, where Zihuatanejo and Acapulco are located, said rains and wind had already knocked over some trees and damaged a road.

Massive floods hit Catania after entire year's worth of rain in just 2 days, Italy - (videos) Massive flooding hit Italy's port city of Catania over the past couple of days after the city received its average yearly rainfall in just about 48 hours. Massive damage was reported across the city, at least 2 people have been killed and one remains missing. The rains were brought by a non-tropical low pressure area, located just south of Sicily, which consolidated into a Medistorm "Gloria" on October 26.A weather station at ​Lentini, Sicily received 275.4 mm (10.8 inches) on October 24, with a maximum hourly intensity at 153.4 mm (6.03 inches).In 24 hours to October 25, 312.2 mm (12.29 inches) of rain was recorded at a weather station at Linguaglossa and 279.8 mm (11.01 inches) at Lentini.The rains continued over the next day, surpassing the yearly average of 586 mm (23.1 inches) in about 48 hours.On October 26, Catania's streets and squares were turned into cascading 'rivers' due to the flooding, which caused massive damage in addition to the loss of life.¹At least 2 people have died in severe flash flooding that ensued, which prompted residents to evacuate and several businesses to shut down in an emergency. Footages circulating on social media showed water streaming on the streets in Catania, turning the roads into rivers as motor vehicles floated and garbage littered into the water.² Gloria has continued to drift slowly to the east since it formed on October 26; however, it is expected to turn toward the west or west-northwest soon, according to Mediterranean Cyclone Center."The models continue to insist upon a Sicily landfall, though uncertainty remains for Gloria's track afterwards. The GFS and CMC have come into agreement on a slower track to landfall, followed by a slow and erratic motion near or over Sicily. The Euro agrees but is faster to landfall."Therefore, the most likely outcome is dissipation over Sicily through land interaction. The GFS and Euro now agree that Gloria or Gloria's remnant low will return to the Ionian Sea and dissipate while tracking southeast, and the track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for intensification over the next few days, and the intensity forecast has been raised slightly, following the GFS output. If landfall occurs sooner, Gloria's peak will be lower."

Malaise haunts New Orleans after Hurricane Ida, pandemic: Will crisis of confidence ease? - George Williams can trace his New Orleans roots to the city’s first decades, in the early 1700s. He’s always lived here and thought he always would.But the 55-year-old game designer and tour guide says he knew exactly when it was time to leave his beloved hometown. A few days after Hurricane Ida, sweltering in a powerless apartment, he used a solar battery to charge his phone and saw four more storms parked out in the Gulf of Mexico.“That was the moment I said, ‘F--k it,’” Williams recalled. He packed up his cat and a few belongings and moved to Cincinnati, where he had a few friends. He’s landed a better-paying job. His internet service is “screaming” fast and far cheaper than what he had in New Orleans. He’s not planning to come back, except for visits and special events like marching in Krewe du Vieux. “Personally, I can’t live there anymore,” Williams said. “I would like to be somewhere with proper medical care, basic infrastructure, people who wear masks. These things are important to me as I grow older.”How common is Williams’ experience? It’s hard, if not impossible, to say how many people are choosing to abandon south Louisiana after Ida. But there’s ample anecdotal evidence that the storm and its aftermath, along with a raft of other factors, have caused some people to rethink their devotion to New Orleans.Real data that would help answer the question are a ways off. Allison Plyer, chief demographer at The Data Center, which tracks and analyzes demographic and economic metrics, said it might not be until March 2023 that the Census Bureau will be able to estimate how many people migrated into and out of the New Orleans region after Ida.The University of New Orleans' annual Quality of Life poll, which usually lands in November, might shed some light on the mood of the citizenry. But it has been canceled this year because of the pandemic, director Ed Chervenak said. He said it will be conducted next spring.But go anywhere around the city and its environs, or on the internet, and conversations about a post-Ida malaise are hard to avoid. Mayor LaToya Cantrell, campaigning for a second term she is expected to win easily on Nov. 13, even acknowledged it in a recent interview.

Giant lava fountains, very violent activity after partial cone collapse at Cumbre Vieja, La Palma - A partial cone collapse at Cumbre Vieja volcano at 08:25 UTC on October 25, 2021, exposed giant lava fountains with large emissions of gasses, ash, and lava. This was followed by very violent explosive activity starting around 13:30 UTC and the opening of a new vent with an impressive lava overflow at 14:00 UTC. The events were preceded by a significant increase in intermediate and deep seismicity on October 24, with an increase in magnitudes in the intermediate zone. 274 earthquakes have been located in 24 hours to 08:00 UTC today. 24 of these were felt by the population. 110 had a magnitude equal to or greater than 3.0 mbLg and 4 of them had a magnitude of 4.0 mbLg. Only 3 quakes have been located at depths around 30 km (18 miles), with the rest located at shallower depths of around 12 km (7.4 miles). The amplitude of the volcanic tremor signal has increased considerably, with numerous intensification pulses. Giant lava fountains were observed after a partial cone collapse at 10:25 UTC on October 25, followed by a large emission of gases, ash and lava. The volcano entered a phase of very violent explosive activity in the central went around 13:30 UTC. A new vent has opened at 13:45 UTC and was followed by an impressive lava overflow at 14:00 UTC. Events described above are chronicled in the videos below:

Asteroid 2021 UA1 flew past Earth at just 0.02 LD - 3rd closest on record -- A newly-discovered asteroid designated as 2021 UA1 flew past Earth at a very close distance of just 0.02 LD / 0.0000630 AU (9 424 km / 5 856 miles) from the center of our planet at 03:07 UTC on October 25, 2021. This is about 3 000 km (1 800 miles) from the surface. This is now the third closest known asteroid to fly by Earth on record. Interestingly, the first two positions hold asteroids that flew past us just last year -- 2021 VT4 on November 13 and 2020 QG on August 16. Since the start of the year, our sky surveys have discovered 110 known asteroids whose orbit takes them within 1 lunar distance from us. 2021 UA1 was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona on October 25, on the same day of its close approach. The object belongs to the Aten group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 1.2 and 2.6 m (3.9 - 8.5 feet).

Major, long-duration X1.0 solar flare erupts from AR 2887, Earth-directed CME produced - (videos) A major, long-duration solar flare measuring X1.0 at its peak erupted from geoeffective Active Region 2887 at 15:35 UTC on October 28, 2021. The event started at 15:17 and ended at 15:48 UTC.The event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 263 km/s. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event.Additionally, a Type IV Radio emission was registered at 15:32 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu at 16:35 UTC - an enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact. A fast, asymmetric Halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 15:48 UTC, with CME impact at Earth expected early to mid October 30.

Greenhouse gas concentrations hit record last year, UN says Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere hit a record high last year despite temporary declines during the pandemic.Greenhouse gas concentrations grew at a faster pace than the annual average from 2011 through 2020, according to the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Greenhouse Gas Bulletin published Monday.Specifically, levels of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, surged to 149 percent of the pre-industrial level or the levels before 1750, when humans “started disrupting Earth’s natural equilibrium.”Methane was 262 percent of that level while nitrous oxide was at 123 percent, a WMO press release about the report explained. Despite stay-at-home orders and the impacts of COVID-19 contributing to a temporary reduction in these gases, the pandemic did not have "any discernible impact" on the levels of gas in the atmosphere or their growth rates, the release added. The WMO warned that these emissions will cause increased global temperatures as well as more extreme weather patterns ranging from intense heat to rising sea levels. This report came as the United Nations climate office also announced that the world remains off target for its goal of cutting emissions in an international effort to reduce global warming, The Associated Press reported. Both of these looming warnings come as representatives from all over the world prepare to gather next week for the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland.

Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in Atmosphere Reached Record Highs Last Year: UN Warns World Is 'Way Off Track' - Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere reached record levels in the atmosphere in 2020 despite a temporary decline in new emissions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Nations said on Monday.The news contained in the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) comes as world leaders prepare to attend the United Nations climate change conference, or COP26. The summit will aim to coordinate global efforts to combat global warming caused by human-made emissions."The 'Greenhouse Gas Bulletin' contains a stark, scientific message for climate change negotiators at COP26," said WMO chief Petteri Taalas."At the current rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, we will see a temperature increase by the end of this century far in excess of the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius [2.7 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit] above pre-industrial levels," he said. "We are way off track." Climate experts agree that increases beyond this level will exacerbate the already more frequent extreme weather situations that Earth has been experiencing over past years, including floods, drought, hurricanes and prolonged heat waves."The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3 to 5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2 to 3°C warmer and sea level was 10 to 20 meters (33 to 66 feet) higher than now. But there weren't 7.8 billion people then," said Taalas.Sea level rise and harm to ocean ecosystems represent further effects of climate change.Concentrations of CO2 — the gas responsible for some 66% of the global warming effect — in the atmosphere reached 413.2 parts per million in 2020, up 2.5 ppm over the previous year. This is 149% of pre-industrial levels from 1750, the WMO said.Averages of methane, the second-most-significant greenhouse gas, reached a new high of 1,889 parts per billion, up 11 ppb on the year before. That represents 262% more than emissions prior to 1750. Some 60% of methane emissions come from human activity, including agriculture and landfills.The third-most-important climate-damaging gas, nitrous oxide, reached 333.2 ppb, up 1.2 ppb. That is 123% of pre-industrial levels.The report also emphasized that because CO2 persists in the atmosphere for a long time, the global temperature will stay elevated for some time even if humankind succeeds in reducing emissions to net zero in the near future.

Release of EPA methane rules expected this week -- EPA is preparing to release two new draft rules this week that could dramatically reduce the role that oil and gas production plays in driving climate change. The methane proposals for new and existing petroleum infrastructure would apply to production, processing, storage and transmission — a much broader swath of the oil industry than was regulated under President Trump. One of the proposals being reviewed by the White House yesterday applies to older, leakier facilities that experts say supply the majority of oil and gas methane. Environmentalists have been pushing EPA for a decade to clamp down on oil and gas methane, and now they anticipate the White House could go beyond the Obama-era new source rule, which covers only infrastructure built after 2015. They point to technological advancements in the last five years that make finding and repairing natural gas leaks cheaper and easier for a wider range of operations, including small producers. “We’ll be interested to see if EPA incorporates some of the new technologies and approaches that have emerged over the last few years,” said Rosalie Winn, an attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund. “That can enable even more frequent monitoring. And we’ll also be looking for more comprehensive coverage, including the more than half a million so-called marginal wells in the United States.” Greens are hoping for a much tougher rule than the new source standard implemented under President Obama. His administration required the use of low-emissions equipment and twice-yearly or quarterly inspections of equipment to find leakage, but climate advocates say monthly inspections would drive greater emissions reductions. The Obama administration set a goal of curbing oil and gas methane emissions by between 40 and 45 percent compared with 2012 levels by 2025. But the Clean Air Task Force estimates that the Obama-era new source rule would only deliver a reduction of 22 percent, even if it were expanded to existing infrastructure. CATF and the Environmental Defense Fund argue that reductions of 65 percent are possible through aggressive regulation of both new and existing oil and gas sources. President Biden, who is preparing to leave Thursday for a European trip that includes an appearance next week at the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, known as COP 26, has not made a specific emissions reduction commitment for the U.S. petroleum sector. But greens say his pledge to cut overall emissions between 50 and 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 hinges on strong new rules for oil and gas production.

Methane emissions in eastern Mass. are 6 times higher than state estimates, study says -A new study finds that emissions of methane — a potent greenhouse gas — from natural gas infrastructure in eastern Massachusetts are about six times higher than state estimates. The study also reports that methane emissions have not decreased over the past eight years, despite state efforts to fix leaks.The research, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) on Monday, comes just weeks after a report by the advocacy group Gas Leaks Allies found that the state program to replace leaking gas pipes is likely to cost more than $20 billion over its lifetime, while barely managing to keep up with new leaks emerging each year."We may be playing a bit of Whack-A-Mole in the case of pipeline leakage," says methane study co-author Lucy Hutyra, a professor of Earth and Environment at Boston University. "We're certainly fixing leaks, but unfortunately, new leaks are coming in as fast as we're fixing them." But the study also suggests that pipeline leakage is only part of the problem — "end users" such as household appliances, furnaces and buildings are leaking more natural gas than previously known."This data is very sobering. It means that we're effectively undercounting and underestimating the amount of emissions, and this is a real challenge," says Rev. Mariama White-Hammond, Boston's Chief of Environment, Energy, and Open Space. "If we're not clear about the scope of the problem, then we're going to undershoot on the solution."Methane is the largest component of natural gas, which heats about half the homes in Massachusetts and supplies about 70% of the region's energy needs. The gas leaks undermine the climate benefits achieved when homes and buildings switch from coal and oil heat to natural gas."The reason that natural gas is better than coal is that, if you burn it efficiently, you're going to put out less molecules of CO2. But if you leak it, in addition to burning it, you're going to undercut that greenhouse benefit," says lead study author Maryann Sargent, a research scientist at Harvard.At the rate eastern Mass. is leaking natural gas, says Sargent, "the impact is equivalent to that of coal."This finding could influence not only how gas leaks are targeted, says Sargent, but also how the state measures progress toward its goal of reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050."Massachusetts, along with a lot of a lot of other states, has set some strong climate goals," Sargent says. "In order to achieve these goals, we need ways to monitor our emissions to see if the policies are actually having their intended impact." Although carbon dioxide is the most prevalent greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere, methane is far better at trapping heat, making it an important target for emissions reduction. According to the Conservation Law Foundation, 28% of Massachusetts' greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to either leaking or burning natural gas. Methane leaks also kill trees, and can explode in contained spaces.

Elon Musk says 'do not worry too much' about methane, a gas that accounts for 20% of global greenhouse emissions - Elon Musk endorsed a carbon tax at Tesla's annual shareholder meeting on Thursday, a position he's held since 2015, even though implementing one could impact his spaceflight ambitions.Earlier this year, Musk said he suggested the policy to the Biden administration but was told it was too "politically difficult.""Can there be a carbon tax? I mean, what the hell?" Musk told shareholders, adding that while the tax would benefit Tesla, it would ultimately hurt SpaceX.He added that people should not "worry too much about methane," the gas responsible for 20% of global greenhouse emissions. According to the EPA, methane is 25 times as strong as carbon dioxide when it comes to trapping heat in the atmosphere.It's also the gas used to fuel SpaceX's Starship rocket, which Musk hopes to send to Mars. In January, Tesla announced plans to drill near a Texas launchpad for natural gas."Methane quickly breaks down into CO2," Musk said. "Methane is not a stable molecule, CO2 is extremely stable."Methane emissions occur during "all phases of drilling and production,"according to the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Recent research suggests methane released from oil and gas facilities issignificantly higher than the government's current estimate.However, when methane is used as rocket fuel, it burns with liquid oxygen and releases carbon dioxide and water vapor into the atmosphere. That means SpaceX's Raptor engine would only directly contribute to methane emissions through potential leakage.Significantly reducing methane emissions would "have a rapid and significant effect on atmospheric warming potential," the EPA says. According to the agency's Global Methane Initiative, methane concentrations in the atmosphere have doubled over the last two centuries.

Plastics Could Release More Emissions Than Coal by 2030, Study Finds - Plastic has infiltrated every aspect of our lives and planet, with microplastics in our tea bags and even plastic pollution found in some of the most remote parts of the world. It's no secret that our reliance on these fossil fuel-based products and packages is damaging Earth, but a new report from Beyond Plastics shows just how detrimental plastic can be.The report, The New Coal: Plastics and Climate Change, says that plastic is on its way to outpacing coal plants in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, plastic could have a larger carbon footprint than coal by the end of the decade."As of 2020, the U.S. plastics industry is responsible for at least 232 million tons of CO2e gas emissions per year," the report highlighted. "This amount is equivalent to the average emissions from 116 average-sized (500-megawatt) coal-fired power plants."But the report, which measures 10 stages of plastics and their emissions, says this is a conservative estimate, and emissions are likely much higher than this. While Beyond Plastics estimates the emissions forhydrofracking, "chemical recycling," and municipal waste incineration, it recognizes lack of data for some components, such as the emissions released by plastics in water."This report represents the floor, not the ceiling, of the U.S. plastics industry's climate impact," said Jim Vallette, president of Material Research and author of the report. "Federal agencies do not yet count many releases because current regulations do not require the industry to report them. For example, no agency tracks how much greenhouse gas is released when plastic trash is burned in cement kilns, nor when methane leaks from a gas processing plant, nor when fracked gas is exported from Texas to make single-use plastics in India." According to the study, if plastic were a country, it would produce the fifth-most greenhouse gases in the world, falling just behind China, the U.S., India and Russia. A 2019 study shows that plastics account for 3.8% of global emissions, nearly double the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by the aviation industry. Currently, coal is the largest contributor to human-caused climate change. Now, experts say plastic could surpass coal's emissions by 2030.

Eminent domain a looming question with proposed carbon capture pipelines - Summit Carbon Solutions has begun work on obtaining easements in North Iowa for its proposed Midwest Carbon Express pipeline, but what options do landowners who don't want to participate have if the project proceeds? This is one concern raised by Paul Gogerty, a landowner from Osage who has land in Hardin County that would be impacted by the pipeline. Gogerty expressed concerns regarding Summit Carbon's potential use of eminent domain, which would allow the company to build the pipeline on land, potentially without consent from the landowner. Eminent domain is when a government body can acquire private property for public use, with compensation for affected landowners. The Midwest Carbon Express is a proposed carbon emissions pipeline from Summit Carbon Solutions that, if built, would be the longest such pipeline in the world, according to Summit Carbon, spanning five states and totaling over 2,000 miles. The proposed route of the project will span 705.3 miles in Iowa, 27.38 of which is in Cerro Gordo County, according to Summit Carbon Solutions. The project will also run through parts of Hancock, Floyd, Franklin and Wright counties. Summit Carbon could be granted the right of eminent domain as a private business and not a government entity. That would come from the Iowa Utilities Board, which is given that authority under Iowa Code. The IUB’s statutes allow the board to grant the power of eminent domain to any “person” who successfully applies for a generating plant certificate, electric line franchise, or pipeline permit, according to the IUB's website. The person does not have to be a public utility as defined by law, but the project must serve a public purpose. Gogerty, who admits he's generally in favor of the project, has become worried that landowners won't have any say in discussions over the pipeline. "To me it is a bit of an overreach to grant that type of power to one group of private individuals at the expense of the landowner," Gogerty said. "What it does is it takes the landowner's ability to walk away from the deal; if you want to walk away, you can't."

Company behind second Iowa CO2 pipeline holding informational meetings - Texas-based Navigator CO2 Ventures will hold informational meetings about its proposed carbon capture pipeline with residents and landowners in three dozen Iowa counties beginning in November, the state utilities board said Wednesday. Navigator CO2's announcement of meetings on its carbon capture and sequestration project comes shortly after Summit Carbon Solutions concluded its series of meetings on a similar project. Navigator says the Heartland Greenway project will capture carbon dioxide from ethanol, fertilizer and other industrial plants in five states, including Iowa, compress it under pressure into a liquid and then transport it through a 1,300-mile pipeline to Illinois where it will be sequestered permanently, deep underground. The company plans eventually to capture about 15 million metric tons annually of the greenhouse gas, a major contributor to climate change, from 20 points in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota. Navigator says that 5,000 miles of carbon dioxide pipelines are now operational, and the development of new carbon capture and sequestration projects "have the ability to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by almost one-fifth and lower the cost of addressing climate change by 70%." Navigator has estimated the project will cost at least $2 billion and create about 8,000 construction jobs and about 80 permanent positions along the pipeline route. Summit Carbon Solutions, a company owned by Bruce Rastetter's Summit Agricultural Group in Alden, is targeting the same industries and using similar technology. It wrapped up a series of meetings in mid-October, outlining its plans to build a $4.5 billion carbon sequestration pipeline system. Altogether, Summit's pipeline would extend 2,000 miles, about 710 miles of it in Iowa. Some farmers and landowners at the Summit meetings said they oppose having the project run through their farmland and the pipeline developer's possible use of eminent domain, which could force unwilling landowners to sell right-of-way access.

High stakes and wide open future for carbon removal discussed at WV climate webinar- - Julio Friedmann, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, went biblical to describe the extreme wildfires, flooding and freezing devastating the country more and more as the climate crisis intensifies. “We’re having our family stroll through the Book of Revelation this year,” Friedmann said. But Friedmann and other panelists looked ahead more than around during a webinar hosted by the nonprofit West Virginia Center on Climate Change Tuesday night on carbon dioxide removal solutions. They are keenly aware that failing to decarbonize at an unprecedented scale in the years to come will result in even more apocalyptic climate impacts. “If you don’t think this is hard, you’re not paying attention,” Friedmann said. The future of carbon removal, though, is wide open and could see West Virginia play a key, job-creating role in decarbonization efforts. “We’re going to need to make a bunch of stuff here,” Friedmann said. Carbon management and removal are poised to become the largest markets in history, Friedmann said. Friedmann noted that some 100 countries have net-zero emissions goals and alluded to a March report from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a London-based energy and climate analysis nonprofit, that more than a fifth of the world’s largest 2,000 publicly traded companies have made a net-zero commitment. Friedmann presented a PowerPoint slide that called carbon capture, use and storage technology “mature, cost effective technology for CO2 reduction & removal.” But carbon capture, use and storage technology, which gathers and compresses carbon from emission sources for reuse or underground storage so it will not reenter the atmosphere, has been too uneconomical to be widely deployed. It has also faced criticism from some clean energy advocates fearing that it could be used to justify lingering fossil fuel dependence. The Global CCS Institute, a think tank that aims to accelerate carbon capture and storage deployment, reported earlier this year that there were 26 operating CCS facilities worldwide, with 34 in early or advanced development. Friedmann, though, cited U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports from recent years including carbon capture and storage technologies as a critical component of decarbonization models. Politicians representing constituencies like West Virginia — Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., most prominent among them as Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee chairman — have embraced developing carbon capture, use and storage technologies as a way to keep coal in the energy mix. The bipartisan infrastructure bill that passed the Senate in August would authorize more than $12 billion for carbon capture technologies, a provision taken from Manchin’s Energy Infrastructure Act that served as legislative text for key portions of the bill.

Latest National Climate Plans Still Fall Far Short, U.N. Report Warns - The New York Times— The latest plans by the nations of the world to tackle climate change over the next decade fall far short of what’s needed to avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures, according to a United Nations report released Tuesday. In the run-up to a major U.N. climate summit in Glasgow next week, a number of governments have updated their pledges under the Paris climate agreement to do more to curb their planet-warming emissions between now and 2030. They include Argentina, Britain, Canada, the European Union, South Africa and the United States.But those new pledges, the report found, would collectively produce just one-seventh of the additional emissions cuts needed this decade to help limit total global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels. That’s the threshold beyond which scientists say the dangers of global warming — such as deadly heat waves, water shortages, crop failures and ecosystem collapse — grow immensely. (The world has already warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times.)And that assumes every country actually follows through on its promises. The report found that many governments still haven’t put in place policies or laws to achieve their stated near-term goals.“The world has to wake up to the imminent peril we face as a species,” Inger Andersen, the executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, said in a statement. “To stand a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, we have eight years to almost halve greenhouse gas emissions: eight years to make the plans, put in place the policies, implement them and ultimately deliver the cuts. The clock is ticking loudly.”The report estimates that even if countries achieve their newest round of near-term climate promises, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, the world would be on track to warm roughly 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, compared with preindustrial levels. That broadly aligns with what outside analyses have found.That much warming would drastically increase the risk of heat waves, droughts, flooding and wildfires across the globe in the years to come, scientists have warned. The United Nations Secretary General António Guterres recently called such an outcome “catastrophic.”In Glasgow, world leaders are expected to discuss accelerating efforts to tackle climate change. But the latest analysis suggests that progress so far has been uneven.

Would the Real Climate Change Hypocrite Please Stand Up! - ExxonMobil has not backed away from its commitment to carbon taxes contrary to what media reports built around the comments of one lobbyist suggest. In fact, the oil and gas company remains committed to combating climate change by creating market incentives that will supposedly cut a path toward “net zero emissions” in its recent reports and its public comments. That path will come at a hefty price for American consumers, American families, and businesses without making any discernable impact on climate, according to recent studies from free market-oriented outfits. But there are no indications that Exxon is prepared to reverse course on its anti-carbon proposals. That much is made clear in Exxon’s 2021 “Energy and Carbon Summary” where the company details new emissions reductions objectives in line with the goals of the U.N.’s Paris Climate Agreement in its 2021 “Energy and Carbon Summary.” That’s pretty green. But it’s not good enough for the Climate Leadership Council (CLC), a nonprofit environmental advocacy group that includes former government officials and business leaders who favor carbon taxes. Since an Exxon lobbyist in Washington D.C. contradicted the official company line during an exchange with an undercover agent of Greenpeace, the CLC recently moved to suspend the company’s membership in the council and in Americans for Carbon Dividends, the council’s advocacy arm. That seems a tad extreme since Exxon is no less than a founding member of the CLC. Moreover, the company has actually been out be in front of other energy companies in expressing support for placing what Darren Woods, its chairman and CEO, describes as a “price on carbon emissions.” No one who favors anti-carbon initiatives really likes to say taxes and no one reporting on the dispute between Exxon and green activists typically takes a deep dive into how much carbon taxes will cost American consumers; most especially those low income Americans who pay a higher percentage of their income on energy. But a leaked list of what Democrats on the U.S. Senate Finance Committee call “carbon pricing” within the proposed $3.5 trillion reconciliation package now gestating on Capitol Hill provides critical insight. The Senate Democrats are looking at “a per-ton tax on carbon dioxide of leading fossil fuels (e.g., coal, oil, natural gas) upon extraction, starting at $15 per ton and escalating over time…” and “a tax per ton of carbon dioxide emissions assessed on major industrial emitters (e.g. steel, cement chemicals)…” and “a per-barrel tax on crude oil,” according to the document. An analysis of these proposals from the American Energy Alliance, a free market consumer advocacy group, finds that the carbon tax options Senate Democrats are exploring would result in higher energy prices across the board for American families and businesses. But the American Energy Alliance also makes the critical point that carbon taxes would most directly impact low-income Americans.

Third Point Has Big Shell Stake, Urges Energy Giant to Break Up – WSJ - Daniel Loeb’s Third Point LLC has taken a large stake in Royal Dutch Shell and is urging the oil giant to separate into two companies to retain and attract investors as many flee stocks seen as environmentally unfriendly.The activist is the latest to pressure a major oil company to change its strategic direction, as the firms face calls to reduce fossil fuel investments and pivot to renewable energy amid concerns about climate change. Upstart hedge fund Engine No. 1 waged a successful campaign to win seats on the board of Exxon Mobil Corp. in May.Third Point’s stake is worth well over $500 million, making the hedge fund one of Shell’s largest investors, people familiar with the matter said. In a letter to its investors Wednesday that was viewed by The Wall Street Journal, the activist said Shell should consider creating two stand-alone companies: one with legacy businesses such as refining that would provide steady cash flow and another that houses renewables and other units requiring substantial investment. It reasons that doing so would clarify the company’s strategy and appeal to different sets of investors who have been making competing demands of the Anglo-Dutch company.Among the major oil companies, Shell has been faster-moving than peers such as Exxon. when it comes to remaking its business and reducing emissions. It isn’t clear whether Shell will be receptive to the idea of separating into two companies. Third Point said in the letter the two sides have been in early discussions.Shell has a market value of nearly $200 billion, according to S&P Capital IQ. Third Point, which says in the letter that Shell is trading at a discount to its peers despite having a better collection of businesses, estimates that a new company including Shell’s liquefied natural gas, renewables and marketing businesses could have the same enterprise value as the company in its current form. The role of climate change in investment decisions has taken center stage this year, as many institutional investors pare holdings in pollution-heavy industries and activists urge companies to remake themselves faster. In May, a Dutch court ruled that Shell must cut its emissions by 45% by 2030. Shell has said it plans to appeal the decision. Earlier this year, the company laid out plans to accelerate its shift to low-carbon energy by reducing its oil production and investing more in areas including biofuels and electric-vehicle-charging infrastructure. Shell agreed to sell its assets in the Permian basin to ConocoPhillips in September for $9.5 billion.

Fixing our supply chains is necessary for the clean energy transition - We don't typically have to think about supply chains. Packages almost magically appear at our doorstep with the click of a button, and grocery store shelves are usually full. But recent shortages of cars, electronics, paper and other products due to the global pandemic, shipping challenges and other factors disrupting the flow of goods around the world are now topics of dinner conversation. This supply chain predicament didn't happen overnight and is complicated by trade relations with China, most notably a recent U.S. ban on solar panels containing certain raw material produced in China's Xinjiang region, based on evidence of forced labor that the People's Republic of China has not acknowledged. Under this withhold release order, U.S. Customs and Border Protection is inspecting and barring the release of some imported panels at the border. The challenging work of tracing components back to the raw materials to ensure products are free of these substances in turn makes it hard for developers to arrange for and price new solar projects. China controls most of the supply chain, including 96-98% of solar ingot and wafer production, which are both needed for solar panel production. The U.S. can produce substantial amounts of the polysilicon used to make ingots and wafers, but tariffs effectively block exports of U.S. polysilicon to China, limiting market access. China put these tariffs in place after the U.S. instituted antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD), on Chinese solar cells and modules. In 2018, the U.S. added tariffs on imports of cells and modules from all countries to encourage U.S. manufacturing, and companies have filed a petition to extend these tariffs under Section 201 of the 1974 Trade Act. Additionally, a group of U.S. solar companies has asked the government to examine the Chinese AD/CVD, claiming that manufacturers are unfairly going around these orders by sending panels through Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. These “solar trade wars” fuel geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty but have done little to change our dependence on imports or the risks that come with them. We're expecting staggering growth in demand for solar energy in the U.S. and worldwide in the upcoming decade, and we need to move quickly to reduce carbon emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change. To support this growth and meet our clean energy goals, we need a resilient and sustainable solar supply chain that mitigates risk and keeps costs low over the long term. This requires proactive policies to harness new investment and expand the capacity to manufacture critical solar components at home.

The U.S. is turning green. What will this climate plan cost and who will pay? -Wall Street Journal -The bill for climate change is coming due, and it will be big. Businesses, investors and the U.S. government are planning to turn the country carbon neutral in the coming 30 years. They are also trying to limit and pay the cost of the climate change that has already occurred. The U.S. is joining nearly 200 countries at the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland. Washington and the private sector are expected to pledge to spend trillions of dollars to reduce carbon emissions. The bill would be shared among the federal and state governments, businesses and consumers. Banks and investors are committing to shift funding away from fossil-fuel producers and to businesses that will help reduce carbon emissions. There would be job losses and new jobs created. The total bill could require tens of trillions in investments, though estimates like these are inherently speculative. The biggest and most measurable cost would be to generate and deliver all of the country’s electricity using renewable resources. The bill would range from $7.8 trillion to $13.9 trillion over the next 30 years, according to a team of energy researchers at Princeton University. As a portion of the U.S. economy, the estimated costs to transform the electrical power system top out at just above 5% of the country’s annual economic output. That is well below the 10% of GDP that was spent on the power system as recently as 2008. Job losses will be offset by gains, though the new jobs would mostly be in different places and require different skills. The Princeton researchers calculated the cost of a complete and partial shift to renewable energy by 2050. The other big cost would be to replace fossil-fuel-powered cars and trucks with electric vehicles, to make buildings more efficient and to heat and cool them with electricity rather than gas or oil. That price is harder to estimate and trickier to pay for. Cars and trucks wear out, so replacing them with electric vehicles over time could be effectively free, if the prices for the vehicles are comparable. Replacing gas and oil heating and cooling systems with electricity would likely saddle owners with real costs. Billions are being invested in research on technologies such as battery storage, green hydrogen and carbon capture that could change the overall cost of the transition away from fossil fuels.

Wrong side of the law. Right side of history: the activists arrested in the name of the planet - The Guardian - From grassroots campaigners to Hollywood actors, 21 climate rebels tell their stories. Tap on each activist to read their story

Joe Manchin pushes for climate cuts even as West Virginia battered by crisis - The Guardian - A drive through West Virginia’s countryside – which is still enthusiastically Donald Trump country – reveals a patchwork of communities battered by the climate crisis and barely held together by deteriorating infrastructure. Yet Manchin – balking at a $3.5tn price tag of Biden’s reconciliation bill – is busy trying to strip out many of the policies that would try to tackle these crises that are so seriously affecting many of his fellow West Virginians. West Virginia, a landlocked state, leads the nation in the number of the infrastructure facilities – hospitals, fire stations, water treatment plants, power stations – located on land prone to severe flooding. It even beats out Louisiana and Florida. Of course, the climate crisis is seeing flood events hit record levels across the US. Beyond the inspiration for John Denver’s hit song, West Virginia’s country roads are actually a source of fear and frustration for residents. Nearly half of the roads in the state are routinely battered by severe flooding. When power outages – some of the longest and most frequent in the nation – hit the state, they are often lethal, a reality made clear when a single flood event in 2016 took out power for over half of the state’s homes and killed 23 people in 12 hours. Earlier this year, tens of thousands of people were left without power for more than two weeks in freezing temperatures when ice storms felled trees on to power lines across the state and closed roads. But, for many West Virginians the reality of flooding and infrastructure failure are more insidious than isolated events. For Jill Hess, it’s trying to make it back to Fairmont, her home town and the birthplace of Joe Manchin, every time there’s talk of a storm. For the past five years, Hess made it a priority to see to it that her mother, Sue Hess, who was surviving on oxygen concentrators, wasn’t stranded powerless and alone. “Every time it would rain or snow she would really go into panic mode.” Jill said that growing up, outages weren’t frequent. But as her mother grew older and weaker, so has the power grid. Despite spending over a billion dollars trying to prevent the grid from failing, the frequency and duration of outages have steadily increased as the temperature of the Earth has risen, causing places like West Virginia to experience increased storm activity. “I can’t tell you how many times she would say, ‘I need you to be ready and available if anything happens because we have a severe thunderstorm warning coming through.’” Jill would hop in her car to drive towards her mother, dependent on oxygen machines, in Fairmont. But with storms in West Virginia come road closures, shutting down the most direct route to any given place. Adding 15 minutes to be rerouted around a mountain felt like 15 hours to Jill knowing her mother was running out of oxygen.

Democrats scramble to give Biden a climate win ahead of COP26 summit- Negotiations over the climate provisions in the Democrats’ spending bill have accelerated and are focused on a package of measures that could replicate the emissions reductions of a clean energy plan dropped from the draft legislation. The new proposals would expand grants and loans in the agriculture and industrial sectors to help them shift to clean energy providers with fewer emissions, according to a senior Biden administration official who requested anonymity to share the plans. The White House discussed the proposals Monday with leaders of environmental and justice groups, according to the official. The new strategies appear to rely on incentives to encourage clean energy use rather than penalties for failing to make the transition, which could help win over West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin who holds a swing vote. “We’re working. Hopefully in a very positive direction,” Manchin said Tuesday of the state of negotiations over the multi-trillion-dollar social spending bill Democrats plan to move in coordination with a bipartisan infrastructure measure that’s already passed the Senate. Democrats are racing to finalize something tangible for President Joe Biden to present when he heads to the United Nations climate summit that begins Sunday in Glasgow, Scotland. Tax credits for electric vehicles remain under discussion, as is an expansion of breaks for renewable energy while the fate of a fee on methane is still under discussion, according to Senators who met on the Capitol Monday night. A major priority for the White Houses, an expansion of a tax credit for electric vehicles, remains in the bill, though discussion about the details of it are continuing, Senator Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, said as he emerged from the session in the Capitol with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Manchin and other senators. Democrats have proposed various tweaks to the $7,500 credit, including increasing its value for autos made by unionized plants and using American-made parts. A tax credit for hydrogen was also discussed at the meeting, Peters said. Energy companies and others are increasingly looking at hydrogen as a possible carbon-free fuel, for cars, trucks and ships as well as heating buildings. The cost of producing it, however, remains a barrier.)

Biden uses massive 85-car motorcade to wind through Rome - creating MASSIVE carbon footprint before chatting about environmental issues with the Pope and flying to Scotland for climate change conference -- President Joe Biden criss-crossed Rome in a presidential motorcade that ran to 85 cars – to kick off a trip that will conclude with a climate summit in Glasgow. The president always travels with a sizable contingent of aides, military officials, and medical officials. But this time, his retinue was padded even further for his audience with Pope Francis – his fourth. While in Rome, an old city with many narrow roads, Biden's motorcade was extended by Italian COVID-19 restrictions which limit passengers to four people per vehicle. Biden travels in 'the Beast' almost wherever he goes, and his motorcade typically includes a second fully armored presidential limo. It also includes special communications vehicles, an ambulance, police escorts, and vehicles containing armed agents – along with vans carrying photographers and press who shadow the president wherever he travels. An audience with the pope is one that aides clamor to join in every administration, and Biden's was no exception. The manifest provided by the White House showed Biden led a party of a dozen people, including the first lady, White House physician Dr. Kevin O'Connor, security advisor Jake Sullivan, and senior advisor Mike Donilon. The president was accompanied by senior officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, among others. And all the big shots translated to even more cars. A pool reporter traveling with the president cited the 85-car figure. A Washington Post journalist in Rome tweeted out video of the extended motorcade. It was difficult to quantify the carbon footprint of the fleet, although many of the vehicles are gas-guzzlers topped by the Beast's reported 244-horsepower engine, which must lug a Cadillac with eight-inch plating.

Indigenous Groups Officially Excluded From COP26, Continue Calling for Action -- Indigenous groups from around the world are preparing to travel to Glasgow for COP26 to call for climate action and demand a greater say in negotiations, the Arizona Republic reports.However, despite being among the least culpable and most harmed by the climate crisis, they will not be fully credentialed while they seek to influence the important discussions already dogged by problems of inequitable access.Since being elected as a tribal leader 15 years ago, Fawn Sharp, now the vice president of the Quinault Indian Nation in what is now Washington state, has seen the impacts of climate change, including rising sea levels, and shrinking glaciers and ocean acidification which are decimating salmon numbers — a crisis for tribes across the continent.Andrea Carmen, a member of the Pascua Yaqui Tribe, the former co-chair of the UN's Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform Facilitative Working Group, and executive director of the International Indian Treaty Council has been fighting for a seat at the international table since COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009. She, along with other Indigenous rights activists, were able to get two references to Indigenous rights in the final draft of the Paris Agreement despite no Indigenous people being in the room where it happened."We called for our rights and knowledge to be respected, not just because of the impacts we were experiencing," Carmen told the Republic, "but also we are convinced that our knowledge, our ancestral knowledge and practices had a lot to contribute to these discussions."Native activists have demanded the Biden Administration take stronger action to protect their land and water resources from fossil fuel extraction and pipelines, including the Enbridge Line 3 tar sands oil pipeline.

Dispossession, Forced Relocation Of Indigenous People Left Tribes Exposed To Ravages Of Climate Crisis, Study Confirms: A major research project published Thursday in Science confirmed and quantified what Indigenous peoples have long believed to be true: ethnic cleansing by European settlers and the U.S. government forced tribes onto marginal lands, resulting in Indigenous peoples across what is now the U.S. being disproportionately exposed to the climate crisis. Researchers assembled and assessed the historic lands and dispossession of 380 tribes spanning a period from the 1500s through the 19th century. The total land holdings were obliterated. White settlers dispossessed Indigenous tribes of 98.9% of their total lands. Today, federally- or state-recognized tribes hold just 2.6% of their historical lands. “Whether it’s within the U.S. context or in other parts of the world," Kyle Whyte, an author of the study, environmental justice professor at the University of Michigan, and a member of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation, told Grist, "Indigenous people are calling for recognition that the reason why they are often facing more severe climate threats than other populations is because of the impact of land dispossession.” Forced relocation hundreds of miles from their ancestral homes also exposed tribes to extreme weather far beyond what their historical lands experienced. Possibly the most extreme, the Hopi reservation in what is now northeastern Arizona endures 57 days above 100°F per year, compared to just 2 days per year on their historic lands which included higher elevations. More extreme heat harms human health, drives up energy costs. “In the past, we used to go to the high country, where we had our summer camps. That’s where we would cool off,” Nikki Cooley, co-manager of the Tribes & Climate Change Program at Northern Arizona University and a citizen of the Diné (Navajo) Nation, in what is now northern Arizona. “We don’t have that, because all of the high-elevation communities are off the reservation.” While legislation currently being negotiated in Congress includes $216 million for tribal climate resilience and adaptation, of which $130 million would help Indigenous communities leave dangerous areas, the study's authors say giving the land back would go further to reparing the unknowable historic harms — echoing a long chorus of calls by the LANDBACK movement. “There are really meaningful, deep connections that people have to place,” Paul Berne Burow, one of the paper’s authors and a doctoral student at Yale, said. “Returning dispossessed lands is one of the best things that can be done to begin to address these inequalities.”

Forced Relocation Left Native Americans More Exposed to Climate Threats, Data Show - The New York Times— Centuries of land loss and forced relocation have left Native Americans significantly more exposed to the effects of climate change, new data show, adding to the debate over how to address climate change and racial inequity in the United States. The findings, which took seven years to compile and were published Thursday in the journal Science, mark the first time that researchers have been able to quantify on a large scale what Native Americans have long believed to be true: That European settlers, and later the United States government, pushed Indigenous peoples onto marginal lands. “Historic land dispossession is a huge factor contributing to extreme climate change vulnerability for tribes,” said Kyle Whyte, one of the study’s authors, who is a University of Michigan professor and a member of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation. The new data comes as the United States suffers through increasingly severe heat waves, drought, wildfires and other disasters made worse by a warming planet. By demonstrating that government actions have made Native Americans more exposed to climate change, the authors argue, the data strengthens the case for trying to make up for that damage, however imperfectly. “This is not just a story of the past harms,” said Justin Farrell, a Yale University professor and another of the study’s authors. “We have to think about ways to recompense for this history.” To measure the effects of forced migration on climate exposure, the authors assembled a database showing the historical land bases and land loss of 380 individual tribes, based on data from tribal nations’ own records, land cession treaties and other federal archives. Most of the data spanned the period from the 1500s to the 1800s. The authors then compared the amount of land tribes used to have with each tribe’s present-day reservations. In total, the amount of land shrank by 98.9 percent. In many cases, no comparison was possible: Of the 380 tribes they examined, 160 have no federally or state-recognized land base today. But for the remaining 220 tribes, the authors found that their present-day lands, on average, are just 2.6 percent the size of their historical lands — an average reduction of 83,131 square miles. In addition to occupying far less land, most tribes were pushed far from their historical lands. The average distance between historical and current lands was 239 kilometers (149 miles); one tribe, the Kickapoo, moved 1,366 kilometers (849 miles). Not only were tribes pushed onto smaller lands far from their original territory; those lands also have less hospitable climates. The authors measured exposure to extreme heat by tabulating the average annual number of days above 100 degrees Fahrenheit between 1971 and 2000 across each tribe’s present-day lands, and then doing the same for historical lands. They found that overall, present lands experience two additional days of extreme heat each year. But for some tribes, the difference is far greater. The Mojave tribe, whose current land is along the Colorado River, experiences an average of 117 days above 100 degrees or 62 more than on its historical lands. The Hopi reservation, in Northeast Arizona, recorded 57 days above 100 degrees on average, compared with just two days on their historical lands, which included higher ground. The Chemehuevi, along the California and Arizona border, experienced an average of 84 days of extreme heat each year, 29 days more than on their historical lands, which likewise included higher ground.

Former N.J. Superfund site will become solar energy field, officials say - A former federal Superfund site will now be the source of clean solar energy and generate revenue for a town it had polluted, officials said. A groundbreaking Wednesday at the GEMS landfill in Gloucester Township kicked off the transformation of the former dump into a 25-acre solar panel field. The panels will sit on top of hulking hills of dirt and other sources of pollution remediation. When completed, the site will produce up to 4.5 megawatts of electricity and offset 4,313 metric tons of carbon dioxide, officials said. None of it will be used to power homes and businesses in Gloucester Township, a sprawling municipality in Camden County, eight miles from Philadelphia. The juice will be sold into a grid run by Atlantic City Electric, which supplies power to towns largely to the south and east. . “What this once was was unusable. We’re taking a polluted site and turning it into a positive project.”

More than half of 2022's solar projects threatened by spiking costs, new report finds -- Surging solar costs, driven my raw material price increases and supply chain constraints, could delay or even cancel more than half of 2022's expected utility-scale solar buildout, according to a new report from energy consultancy Rystad Energy. Next year's forecasts stand at 90 gigawatts of new utility-scale solar worldwide, and the firm said Tuesday that 56% of those projects are at risk amid the surge in prices. The spike means developers might try to negotiate higher power purchase agreements, or else absorb the costs themselves, leading to lower margins. All told, the cost for photovoltaic modules has risen nearly 50% from under $0.20 per watt peak (Wp) in 2020 to between $0.26 and $0.28/Wp during the second half of 2021, according to Rystad. Watt peak measures maximum output. A portion of the surging cost is thanks to the jump in polysilicon, which is a key component in solar systems. Rystad said that prices for the material are up 300% since July 2020. IHS Markit estimates a slightly smaller increase, saying polysilicon prices are up more than 200% between October 2020 and today. And it's not just polysilicon. Other components of solar systems including silver, copper, aluminum and glass are also increasing. Demand for raw materials is jumping as the world emerges from lockdown, pushing prices higher as supply remains tight. "The utility solar industry is facing one of its toughest challenges just days ahead of COP26," said David Dixon, senior renewables analyst at Rystad Energy. "The current bottlenecks are not expected to be relieved within the next 12 months, meaning developers and offtakers will have to decide whether to reduce their margins, delay projects or increase offtake prices to get projects to financial close," he added.

$2.35 billion tidal lagoon project with underwater turbines planned for UK - Plans for a £1.7 billion ($2.35 billion) project in the U.K. incorporating technologies including underwater turbines, floating solar power and battery storage have been announced, with those behind the development hoping it will generate thousands of jobs. The Blue Eden project, as it's known, would be located on the waterfront of Swansea, a coastal city in southwest Wales. In an announcement Monday, Swansea Council said the project had been made possible through private sector funding. It is being led by a tech firm called DST Innovations and other business partners. DST Innovations is headquartered in Wales. Support is also coming from Swansea Council and Associated British Ports. Delivery of Blue Eden would take place in three phases across a period of 12 years. A key element would be "a newly designed tidal lagoon" with "underwater turbines generating 320 megawatts of renewable energy." Other plans for the project include: A plant focused on producing batteries for renewable energy storage; a floating solar array spanning 72,000 square meters; around 150 "floating" homes; and a battery facility that would store the energy produced by the project, using it to power operations. It's envisaged that Blue Eden would also be home to an oceanic and climate change research center.

A melting glacier could mean a chance for Alaska's biggest hydroelectric project to expand - The Dixon Glacier, on the other side of Kachemak Bay from Fitz Creek, is rapidly receding. That’s true for glaciers around Alaska, and the world. But what’s special about Dixon is it sits just a few miles from Bradley Lake, a source of hydropower that supplies the railbelt with about 10% of its energy needs. And as the glacier keeps retreating, the Alaska Energy Authority, which owns the project, says it can expand the project’s capacity using the water coming off the glacier. “If you’re talking in terms of geologic time scales, it’s definitely rapidly retreating,” said Bretwood Higman, a Seldovia-based geologist. “I mean, it’s something that, if you went and visited the glacier two years in a row and stood right next to it, it’d be pretty obvious it was different.” Dixon Glacier has receded enough in the last five years so that there’s now an exposed stream on state land. It’s appealing to the Alaska Energy Authority, which has been eyeing ways to expand the 120-megawatt Bradley Lake project. Bradley Lake is the largest hydroelectric facility in Alaska and sends power to utilities across the railbelt. Its power is also cheaper than other sources, at 4 cents per kilowatt hour. Alaska Energy Authority Executive Director Curtis Thayer said diverting water from Dixon could bolster the project’s capacity by 50%. “If Bradley can produce — now it produces 10 — but if it could produce 15 or 16 percent of renewable on the Railbelt, that’s huge,” Thayer said. The corporation recently wrapped up another expansion project, a three-year effort to divert runoff from Battle Creek into Bradley Lake. That project grew the production capacity of the facility by 10%. Higman said, in a broad sense, energy providers can anticipate changes in the amount of water that becomes available for hydropower projects as glaciers continue to melt. And he said it could be valuable for them to anticipate how that changing landscape might affect their portfolios. “Bradley’s already a critical part of our power infrastructure,” he said. “And it would be really nice to know how we might expect that to change as we’re doing things like developing wind that might be balanced against Bradley.”

Environmental lawsuit challenges NC biogas production from hog waste - A complaint about pollutants from hog farms filed last month with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency alleges that the N.C. Department of Environmental Quality’s issuing of biogas permits to four hog farms will have a disproportionate impact on communities of color in the surrounding area. North Carolina environmental and civil rights advocacy groups argue that if the biogas operations are allowed to operate, pollutants from the operations will affect the communities of color surrounding the hog farms. Biogas production is both a side business for hog farmers and a treatment option to reduce methane emissions from hog waste, said Mahmoud Sharara, assistant professor in the biological and agricultural engineering department at N.C. State University.Farmers collect hog waste, treat the waste to produce biogas and sell that biogas as renewable natural gas to bidders.Blakely Hildebrand, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center, called Smithfield Foods’ biogas practices “primitive” and “harmful” to the surrounding communities. “The (hog) industry should not be moving backwards and creating more harm for communities,” she said. “It’s time that these communities are protected from the pollution from these hog operations.”In March, the DEQ issued biogas permits to four hog farms, all owned by Smithfield Foods, according to a press release from DEQ. Jim Monroe, a Smithfield spokesperson, said he does not think the biogas practices are harmful.“Turning methane from hog farms into clean energy is an innovative, sustainable practice and an absolute win for North Carolina, the communities where Smithfield operates and the environment,” he said.Monroe cited North Carolina’s Clean Energy Plan as evidence that biogas production has great potential to reduce methane emissions. Ordered by Gov. Roy Cooper, the DEQ produced the plan to outline and recommend clean energy technologies to address climate change and transition to a clean energy economy, according to the plan.Instead of allowing methane from livestock waste to enter the atmosphere, biogas production can capture methane and convert it into carbon dioxide, reducing the global warming impact, the plan reads. Methane is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide. The SELC filed its complaint on behalf of the Duplin County branch of the North Carolina Conference of the NAACP and the North Carolina Poor People’s Campaign on Sept. 27.

Gas price spike puts green hydrogen at cost parity with fossil fuels -Green hydrogen in Europe, produced by electrolysis of water powered by renewable electricity, is already competitive with hydrogen produced from fossil fuels in the current natural gas market environment, leading companies in the sector said. Tight gas supplies have sent European prices soaring in recent weeks, feeding into the costs of producing hydrogen by steam methane reforming, so-called grey hydrogen. Norway's Aker Clean Hydrogen said in a results statement Oct. 22 that the cost of hydrogen production from its projects under development in Norway were now competitive with grey hydrogen production. "We have made further progress to make hydrogen affordable," Aker Clean Hydrogen CEO Knut Nyborg said in a statement. "Some of our Norwegian projects under development show hydrogen cost levels of $3.5-$4.5/kg," Nyborg said. "In the current market environment, with very high gas prices, this matches the cost levels for grey hydrogen." S&P Global Platts assessed the cost of producing hydrogen from unabated fossil fuels at Eur4.93/kg ($5.74/kg) Oct. 21, including capex and carbon. CEO of electrolyzer producer ITM Power Graham Cooley told S&P Global Platts that power purchase agreements locking in lower prices for renewable electricity were making renewable hydrogen production cost-competitive with fossil fuel-derived production. "The cost of green hydrogen is now lower than the cost of grey hydrogen in most places around the world, because of the increase in the cost of natural gas," Cooley said in an interview Oct. 21. "If you link an electrolyzer to a PPA with a wind farm, [the power price] doesn't fluctuate at all, for the whole of the duration of the PPA." Conventional hydrogen producers are unlikely to be directly exposed to the sharp rise in natural gas prices, though any sustained rise in prices will be passed through in the longer term.

Australia and the Middle East could lead exports of ‘green’ hydrogen, new report says - Australia and the Middle East have the greatest potential to be major exporters of "green" hydrogen in the coming years, according to an analysis by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.Green hydrogen is produced using renewable energy instead of fossil fuels. It can be used as a clean power source for sectors such as manufacturing and transportation — but it is expensive to produce and difficult to transport.Still, an expected surge in demand for low-carbon hydrogen — which includes green hydrogen — has prompted several countries to announce plans to build hydrogen exporting capabilities. Nearly 60% of such projects are in Australia and the Middle East, Wood Mackenzie said in a report.Both Australia and the Middle East are near potential major importers in Northeast Asia and Europe, said Prakash Sharma, the consultancy's head of markets and transitions in Asia-Pacific."The proximity is going to help ... Australia is close to the Northeast Asian market but also Middle East could go anywhere in both directions — it could go to Europe and it could also potentially go to the Northeast Asia market," Sharma told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Thursday. The main question is which market can overcome the cost and challenges oftransporting hydrogen, especially over long distances, he added.

Commercial flights that fly 'entirely on hydrogen' planned for 2024 - Plans to operate commercial hydrogen-electric flights between London and Rotterdam have been announced, with those behind the project hoping it will take to the skies in 2024. In a statement Wednesday, aviation firm ZeroAvia said it was developing a 19-seater aircraft that would "fly entirely on hydrogen." A partnership between ZeroAvia, airport company Royal Schiphol Group, Rotterdam The Hague Innovation Airport Foundation and Rotterdam the Hague Airport has been established to work on the initiative. "The deal sets a solid timeline for the launch of the first zero emission commercial passenger flights between the UK and the Netherlands, and potentially the first international commercial operation in the world," ZeroAvia said. The company added that both itself and Royal Schiphol Group were in what it described as "advanced partnership talks with airlines to agree on an operator for the planned route." According to the International Energy Agency, carbon dioxide emissions from aviation "have risen rapidly over the past two decades," hitting almost 1 metric gigaton in 2019. This, it notes, equates to "about 2.8% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion."

For landmark new climate law in North Carolina, ‘technical’ concerns linger - At first blush, North Carolina’s new bipartisan energy law is straightforward and far-reaching — directing regulators to make hefty pollution cuts from Duke Energy power plants in the next decade and whittle them down to near-zero by midcentury.But many believe the law contains errors and ambiguities that could at best lead to lengthy court battles — and at worst give Duke the reins to build a raft of fossil gas plants in place of solar and wind farms.From Cooper to legislative leaders to Duke, nearly everyone involved in crafting the compromise insists there is no question that regulators — not the utility — will control how the targets are met. But lawmakers declined to amend the bill to make that clearer as it moved rapidly through the legislature this month, and they remain iffy on whether a technical corrections bill — a clean-up mechanism that typically comes at the end of the legislative session — will include changes to the law formally known as House Bill 951. “I don’t know about a technical corrections bill,” Cooper said at a ceremony when he signed the legislation, flanked by Republican and Democrat leaders from both chambers of the General Assembly. “What I believe would happen is that we would all need to agree on any such thing. I’m open to talking to these four leaders about that if it’s necessary.” A rewrite of a heavily criticized measure that squeaked out of the House this summer, House Bill 951 cements into law the goals of the state’s Clean Energy Plan, a 2019 document crafted by the Cooper administration after months of public meetings and stakeholder input.The statute aims to cut pollution from Duke’s power plants 70% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. By 2050, the company must cut its emissions by at least 95% and offset the rest by planting trees or taking other actions to achieve full carbon neutrality.Tasked with taking “all reasonable steps” to achieve the reductions is the North Carolina Utilities Commission, a seven-member panel composed of six Cooper appointees, with a seventh awaiting confirmation from the General Assembly.Critics blanch at the language that comes next, which first directs the commission to, “develop a plan, no later than December 31, 2022, with the electric public utilities, including stakeholder input, for the utilities to achieve the authorized reduction goals…” Five lines later, the law says that the Carbon Plan, “shall be reviewed every two years and may be adjusted as necessary, in the determination of the Commission and the electric public utilities.”At best, the text leaves to the beholder how much control Duke utilities have over the formulation and the tweaking of the plan. At worst, it gives Duke authority equal to its regulator.“It’s inartful drafting,” admitted Sen. Julie Mayfield, an Asheville Democrat who helped negotiate the compromise and co-directs the environmental advocacy group MountainTrue. “And it’s groups that don’t trust Duke, understandably, reading this with an eye toward how Duke can twist this to their advantage.” Duke has demonstrated a clear preference for building new fossil fuel gas plants and minimizing renewables. Early this year, the company presented two scenarios to the commission for reducing its pollution 70% by 2030. Both 15-year plans forecast over 6 gigawatts of new gas plants, and they were up to 20% more costly than the company’s preferred course of reducing its emissions by 60%.

PJM, market monitor urge FERC to reject SOO Green proposal, saying it will upend the capacity market - The PJM Interconnection and its independent market monitor urged the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to dismiss a complaint by the developers of the $2.5 billion SOO Green interstate transmission project, saying the developers are trying to upend the grid operator's capacity rules for generating resources outside its footprint. SOO Green's proposal would "subvert" the PJM's capacity market, hurting grid reliability and lowering capacity prices by crowding out resources that meet the grid operator's capacity requirements, Monitoring Analytics said in a FERC filing Monday. The Natural Resources Defense Council supported SOO Green's complaint, which the advocacy group said would boost market competition by supporting innovative technology. SOO Green's complaint filed last month is its second attempt to get FERC to help pave the way for a 350-mile underground, direct-current power line that could transfer 2,100 MW between the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) and PJM (EL21-103). SOO Green in June argued that PJM's process for considering merchant transmission lines was flawed and was delaying the power line, which would follow Canadian Pacific railroad rights of way between Mason City, Iowa, and Yorkville, Illinois (EL21-85). In the most recent complaint, SOO Green said PJM's rules for capacity outside its footprint block market entry and stifle competition without providing significant reliability benefits. Currently, external resources can participate in PJM's capacity market only if the grid operator can directly dispatch them. Under SOO Green's proposal, PJM would send a dispatch signal to the transmission line, which in turn would draw power from MISO's system, but not from any specific generating source. Resources in MISO that use SOO Green's "controllable" high-voltage direct current line would be eligible to bid in PJM's capacity auctions. Monitoring Analytics said the proposal would strip away rules designed to make sure external generating resources actually provide their capacity when the grid operator needs it.

Extreme weather is causing longer power outages. States and utilities can’t agree on solutions - The Washington Post— Every time a storm lashes the Carolina coast, the power lines on Tonye Gray’s street go down, cutting her lights and air conditioning. After Hurricane Florence in 2018, Gray went three days with no way to refrigerate medicine for her multiple sclerosis or pump the floodwater out of her basement. What you need to know about the U.N. climate summit — and why it matters “Florence was hell,” said Gray, 61, a marketing account manager and Wilmington native who finds herself increasingly frustrated by the city’s vulnerability. “We’ve had storms long enough in Wilmington and this particular area that all power lines should have been underground by now. We know we’re going to get hit.” Across the nation, severe weather fueled by climate change is pushing aging electrical systems past their limits, often with deadly results. Last year, the average American home endured more than eight hours without power, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration — more than double the outage time five years ago. Advertisement This year alone, a wave of abnormally severe winter storms caused a disastrous power failure in Texas, leaving millions of homes in the dark, sometimes for days, and at least 200 dead. Power outages caused by Hurricane Ida contributed to at least 14 deaths in Louisiana, as some of the poorest parts of the state suffered through weeks of 90-degree heat without air conditioning. [Lights Out: Living without power in the wake of Hurricane Ida] As storms grow fiercer and more frequent, environmental groups are pushing states to completely reimagine the electrical grid, incorporating more batteries, renewable energy sources and localized systems known as “microgrids,” which they say could reduce the incidence of wide-scale outages. Utility companies have proposed their own storm-proofing measures, including burying power lines underground. But state regulators largely have rejected these ideas, citing pressure to keep energy rates affordable. Of $15.7 billion in grid improvements under consideration last year, regulators approved only $3.4 billion, according to a national survey by the NC Clean Energy Technology Center — about one-fifth. After a weather disaster, “everybody’s standing around saying, ‘Why didn’t you spend more to keep the lights on?’ ” Ted Thomas, chairman of the Arkansas Public Service Commission, said in an interview with The Washington Post. “But when you try to spend more when the system is working, it’s a tough sell.” A major impediment is the failure by state regulators and the utility industry to consider the consequences of a more volatile climate — and to come up with better tools to prepare for it. For example, a Berkeley Lab study last year of outages caused by major weather events in six states found that neither state officials nor utility executives attempted to calculate the social and economic costs of longer and more frequent outages, such as food spoilage, business closures, supply chain disruptions and medical problems. “There is no question that climatic changes are happening that directly affect the operation of the power grid,” said Justin Gundlach, a senior attorney at the Institute for Policy Integrity, a think tank at New York University Law School. “What you still haven’t seen … is a [state] commission saying: 'Isn’t climate the through line in all of this? Let’s examine it in an open-ended way. Let’s figure out where the information takes us and make some decisions.’ ”

China's energy crisis - Why is the country on the edge of the abyss - China, which in recent years has been among the world's leading powers, is faced with a problem that is more characteristic of third world countries. Power shortages have recently become so severe that factories across China are closing, and the problem is especially acute in industrial centers in the northeast of the country as winter approaches. What exactly caused such a large-scale energy crisis that brought the Celestial Empire to the brink of an abyss, and can this have consequences for the rest of the world?

Energy crisis 2021: How bad is it, and how long will it last? - Trying to bounce back from Covid, the world has run headlong into an energy crisis. The last spike of this magnitude popped the 2008 bubble. Crude oil is up 65% this year to $83 per barrel. Gasoline, above $3 per gallon in most of the country, is more costly than any time since 2014, with inventories at the lowest level in five years. Meanwhile natural gas, which provides more than 30% of all U.S. electricity and a lot of wintertime heating, has more than doubled this year to $5 per million Btu. Even coal is exploding, with China and India mining as fast as possible. The price of U.S. coal is up 400% this year to $270 per ton. The situation is considerably worse in Europe, where electricity prices have quintupled and natgas prices have surged to $30/mm Btu—the energy equivalent of paying $180 for a barrel of oil. All this is feeding into the inflation loop, pushing up the prices for energy-intensive metals like nickel, steel, silicon. Fertilizer, mostly made from natural gas, has ramped past 2008 record highs to nearly $1,000 a ton, obliterating the $300 to $450/ton range of the past few years. China announced this week it would halt fertilizer exports. Copper, perhaps the most vital raw material in building out a wind and solar industry, is near a record at $4.50 per pound. We’ll have to deal with inflation after surviving the challenge of not freezing to death this winter. “Only some form of government intervention that mandates large-scale power cuts and rationing to certain sectors can curb gas demand and temper gas prices materially this winter,” It starts with central banks persisting with artificially low interest rates and a flood of cheap money despite record levels of consumer spending and a 30% surge in Chinese exports—all of which is straining against pandemic-constricted supply chains. Add to that Russia not flowing nearly as much gas into Europe as expected (perhaps as a passive-aggressive tactic to force approval of Nord Stream 2). But the roots go deeper. The ESG and carbon divestment craze has so demonized fossil fuels (and nuclear power) that institutional investors and governments have cut them out of portfolios entirely, and have instead been flowing capital to more socially acceptable low-carbon alternatives. Blackrock announced last year it would no longer finance fossil fuel development (though it still owns a lot). Wall Street gurus like Jim Cramer have called the oil industry “uninvestable” and “a perma-short.” But the problem is, renewable energy hasn’t proven sufficiently scalable to pick up the slack. In July, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, renewable energy sources (excluding hydropower) provided just under 10% of total electricity generation (gas was 42%). Has it gone too far too fast? Germans now regret shuttering their fleet of nuclear power plants over the past decade, while some Dutch are second-guessing closing down Europe’s biggest gas field at Groningen. Meanwhile, North Sea gas drilling has slowed, and onshore fracking has been banned in the U.K.

Low-Income Housing in NY Burns Fossil Fuels More Than Other States, Study Finds -- Low-income households in New York still rely heavily on fossil fuels, a trend linked to adverse health outcomes, a new study finds. The report published this month examined data around heating in low-income housing. It found that in New York, 84 percent of those residences relied on piped natural gas, propane or fuel oil. That represents the highest percentage of the four states studied, which also included California, Massachusetts and Colorado, and is well over the national average of 54 percent of low-income households that use fossil fuels for heating. The report was prepared by RMI, a nonprofit group that promotes clean energy, which noted multiple long- and short-term health effects from burning fossil fuels in homes. For instance, children who live in homes with gas stoves are 42 percent more likely to develop asthma than children who live with electric stoves. It also showed that burning fuels in buildings negatively impacts neighborhood air quality—an issue made worse in environmental justice areas, where pollution from highways, peaker plants and waste transfer facilities already wreaks havoc. Another study this year by Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health—and later visualized by RMI—found that in 2017 (the year with the most recent available data) 1,940 New Yorkers died prematurely due to particulate matter that can be linked to burning fossil fuels in buildings. That represents the highest number of deaths of all 50 states and is linked to more than $21 billion in health costs. The majority, or 75 percent of those deaths and health costs, were directly related to residential, not commercial, buildings.

Consumer advocates, environmental groups call for reconsideration of power rate increase — Groups opposed to efforts by Appalachian Power and Wheeling Power to keep three of its power plants operational over the next 19 years want a do-over of a state regulator’s decision to support those plans.West Virginia Citizen Action Group, Solar United Neighbors, and Energy Efficient West Virginia filed a petition for reconsideration Friday with the West Virginia Public Service Commission.The groups are requesting the PSC reconsider its order issued Oct. 12 approving a plan by Appalachian Power and Wheeling Power to make environmental improvements to the Amos Power Plant in Putnam County, the Mountaineer Power Plant in Mason County, and the Mitchell Power Plant.The improvements would keep the three plants operating until at least 2040.The companies are seeking a 3.3 percent increase for West Virginia ratepayers to help subsidize environmental improvements at the three plants after regulatory agencies in Kentucky and Virginia declined requests to help shoulder the financial burden for the improvements. The improvements include changing how plants dispose of coal ash (CCR) and how wastewater is discharged from plants (ELG).The PSC would still need to approve the rate increases, though the surcharge increase for Mitchell was approved in August in an earlier PSC decision.Attorneys for West Virginia Citizen Action Group, Solar United Neighbors, and Energy Efficient West Virginia allege that the power companies didn’t provide adequate public notice of the fee increases.

Ameren is mining Bitcoin — and controversy — near one of its coal-fired power plants -In farmland near the banks of the Mississippi River, the state’s largest electric utility has stuffed a shipping container full of high-powered computers, in the shadow of one of its coal-fired power plants. The project, launched quietly this year at Ameren Corp.’s Sioux Energy Center here, is a controversial experiment: Ameren built the data center to guzzle energy from the electric grid and help its power plants avoid ramping their production down and back up again, which wastes energy and stresses the plants. But the company needed something for the computers to work on. So Ameren devised a task for the servers: “Mine” for Bitcoin, the polarizing digital currency now on a Wall Street tear. The work is novel. Experts are unaware of other regulated U.S. utilities mining cryptocurrencies. Ameren said the company believes it is “one of, if not the first in the country” to perform the activity. If successful, the experiment could cut power plants’ carbon emissions and make Ameren millions, both from more efficient operations and from the bitcoins themselves. The company has already collected more than 20 bitcoins, valued, as of Friday, at more than $60,000 apiece. But critics are disconcerted. They worry the data center is a ploy to artificially heighten demand for struggling coal plants, allowing them to run more than is justified. They argue that the venture will burn more coal and pollute more, not less, all while missing opportunities to use that same energy to power other technologies, such as battery storage or electric vehicle charging stations. Meanwhile, state watchdogs who police utility spending and consumer impacts want to ensure that ratepayers remain off the hook for costs tied to “speculative commodities, like virtual currencies.” “Should a public utility be dabbling in cryptocurrency?” asked local Sierra Club official Andy Knott. “This seems like a bizarre activity for a monopoly public utility.”

State legislators visit Beckley as part of Coal Communities Workgroup listening tour | WVNS — The Coal Communities Workgroup completed another stop on their listening tour at Woodrow Wilson High School in Beckley.The goal of the tour is to get feedback from residents in coal communities about how the West Virginia Legislature should spend federal funding including an incoming $38.9 billion to revitalize coal communities in Southern West Virginia. Delegate Ed Evans, D-McDowell, said the money should be used to improve and build infrastructure that will bring people back to the state.“Southern West Virginia has a chance to bring in money that will mean infrastructure, in some areas that means clean drinking water for the first time or sewers for the first time,” Evans said.Evans said federal funding could be life-changing for Southern West Virginia which ranked number one of the 25 coal communities identified by the federal government. He said the investment into infrastructure and the interests of the residents in the area can bring back businesses and boost the population.

Court ruling upholds Georgia Power plans for coal ash - – The Georgia Court of Appeals has upheld a lower court decision allowing Georgia Power to collect from customers $525 million in coal ash pond closure costs. Be in the know the moment news happens Subscribe to Daily and Breaking News Alerts Email Address Monday’s ruling came in an appeal filed by the state chapter of the Sierra Club. Georgia Power has committed to spending nearly $9 billion in the coming decades on a plan to close all 29 of its ash ponds located at 11 coal-burning power plants across the state, a cost estimate that has been revised upward at least twice from the $7.6 billion the Atlanta-based utility proposed during its 2019 rate case. Subscribe The state Public Service Commission voted to allow Georgia Power to recover a portion of those costs from ratepayers after lawyers for the utility argued the closure plan complies with federal regulations for ash ponds as well as the more stringent requirements of the Georgia Environmental Protection Division (EPD). “We continue to strongly disagree with any claims to the contrary, ” Georgia Power wrote Tuesday in a prepared response to Monday’s ruling. “Additionally, the issue of cost recovery was thoroughly discussed and evaluated through Georgia’s open and transparent regulatory process with the Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC), with the PSC’s decision affirmed by the Superior Court of Fulton County and, with Monday’s decision, by the Court of Appeals of Georgia.” Coal ash contains contaminants including mercury, cadmium and arsenic that can pollute groundwater and drinking water as well as air. Georgia Power plans to excavate and remove the ash from 19 ponds and close the other 10 ponds in place. Thus far, the EPD has held public hearings on closure plans for ash ponds at Plant Hammond near Rome and Plant Bowen near Cartersville. The state agency has yet to act on proposed permits requested by Georgia Power. Nearly all of those who spoke during the public hearings urged the EPD to reject the permits and require Georgia Power to excavate all of the ponds and remove the ash rather than close them in place. They argued that storing toxic coal ash in unlined pits could lead to contamination of nearby streams and groundwater supplies.

Fire and toxic foam ravage Sugar Camp coal plant in Franklin County --Within a matter of weeks, the people of the small village of Macedonia have seen fire, the release of toxic extinguishing foam, devastating environmental impacts, and hundreds out of work in the region. And this occurred all at the behest of a company that had already declared bankruptcy, knew the risks and kept digging for coal, according to critics and environmental experts. The fire within the Sugar Camp coal mine has been burning since about the middle of August. To extinguish it, operators dumped 46,000 gallons of toxic foam into the mine. Environmental experts say a foam that contains a group of chemicals known as PFAS was used unsuccessfully in an attempt to extinguish the fire may have devastating impacts on local water sources for years to come. They say this foam is particularly toxic and detrimental to the health of humans and wildlife. About 400 employees were reportedly out of work as officials work to contain the disaster, according to an Oct. 5 report by WFCN news. As of publication, Foresight Energy, the company that owns and operates the mine, did not respond to requests for comment on the matter. Twenty days after the Illinois EPA learned of the use of PFAS and received reports that it was detected on a nearby creek on September 21, following a review of inspection observations and water sample results, the Illinois EPA initiated an enforcement action, according to Kim Biggs, the IEPA’s public information officer. The Illinois EPA did so by issuing a violation notice to Sugar Camp Energy LLC pursuant to the Illinois Environmental Protection Act (EPAct), she said. “The violation notice alleges violations of several provisions of the EPAct and associated regulations and recommends actions to address the allegations,” Biggs said. “These recommendations include the immediate cessation of all releases from the transfer and storage of firefighting foam concentrate, the expeditious clean up and removal of any spilled firefighting foam concentrate, and the routine inspection of firefighting foam containers for leaks when received and used at the mine.”

Georgia nuclear reactors delayed again as costs mount (AP) — Georgia Power Co. is pushing back the startup date for its two new nuclear reactors near Augusta, saying it’s still redoing sloppy construction work and that contractors still aren’t meeting deadlines. The unit of Atlanta-based Southern Co. now says the third reactor at Plant Vogtle won’t start generating electricity until sometime between July and September of next year. Previously the company said it would start in June at the latest. The fourth reactor won’t come online until sometime between April and June of 2023. The delay will mean more costs for a project already estimated to exceed $27.8 billion overall. Georgia Power, which owns 46% of the project, had already estimated it would spend $9.2 billion, with another $3.2 billion in financing costs. Besides Georgia Power, most electrical cooperatives and municipal utilities in Georgia own shares of the plants. Also obligated to buy power from Vogtle are Florida’s Jacksonville Electric Authority and some cooperatives and municipal utilities in Alabama. Southern said Thursday that it would release a new estimate of Vogtle’s costs along with quarterly earnings next week. But the amount could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. When Georgia Power announced a delay of three to four months in July, the combined additional cost to all owners was around $1 billion. Southern recorded its entire share of the July costs as a loss to shareholders, but could still ask ratepayers to pay. The delay could also push back when customers will begin paying a larger share of the plant’s costs. The Georgia Public Service Commission plans to vote next month on what could be a $224 million rate increase to pay for $2.1 billion in construction costs on Unit 3. What would be roughly a 3% rate increase for residential customers, or $3.78 a month on a bill of $122.73, is supposed to take effect after Unit 3 goes into commercial operation. Some consumers have asked the five-member elected Public Service Commission to delay the Vogtle rate increase, citing two other upcoming Georgia Power rate increases. Georgia Power’s 2.6 million customers have already paid more than $3.5 billion toward the cost of Vogtle units 3 and 4 under an arrangement that’s supposed to hold down borrowing costs. Public Service Commission staff members earlier estimated that the typical customer will have paid $854 in financing costs alone by the time the Vogtle reactors are finished. In August, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission released the results of a special inspection that said two sets of electrical cables that are supposed to provide redundancy in Unit 3 weren’t properly separated. Earlier, Georgia Power had to repair a leak in Unit 3′s spent fuel pool.

NextEra's failure to upgrade Seabrook plant jeopardizes planned $1B transmission line, Avangrid warns -To protect its revenue, NextEra Energy Resources is blocking the New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) line, a transmission project designed to import hydro power from Canada, by failing to agree to upgrade a circuit breaker at the Seabrook nuclear plant in New Hampshire, according to Avangrid and NECEC Transmission, the companies developing the power line. NextEra has no obligation to make the upgrade at its 1,250-MW power plant, but is willing to do so if Avangrid agrees to adequate terms for the work, the Juno Beach, Fla.-based company said Friday in a filing at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which is trying to resolve the dispute. FERC's decision in the case has regional and national implications in the fight to cut greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER). "If NextEra and other generating-owning utilities are given the opportunity to delay and obstruct these projects, the communities that they serve, and the entire New England region's ratepayers, will suffer," the department said. The issue centers on the $1 billion NECEC project, a proposed 145-mile power line in Maine that is designed to deliver 9.45 million MWh a year from Hydro-Québec to Massachusetts utilities. The 320-kV, direct current project grew out of a request for proposals by Massachusetts regulators to bring renewable energy to the state. ISO New England (ISO-NE) determined that NextEra needs to upgrade a circuit breaker at its Seabrook nuclear plant to allow the NECEC line to safely interconnect to the grid. The Seabrook generating station is a "merchant" plant that gets all its revenue from sales in the ISO-NE markets. Avangrid and its subsidiary NECEC Transmission a year ago filed a complaint at FERC arguing NextEra was slow-walking the upgrade project because the power from Canada will reduce NextEra's revenue in ISO-NE's power markets (EL21-6).FERC last month decided it needed to hold hearings to help it resolve the complaint. FERC also opened a review of ISO-NE's rules for requiring grid upgrades to accommodate planned transmission facilities like the NECEC project (EL21-94).Avangrid has agreed to pay for a new circuit breaker, but NextEra is refusing to do the work "under reasonable terms," Avangrid said Friday in a brief filed at FERC. "There is evidence suggesting that NextEra has intentionally positioned its breaker to be a gating item for market entry," Avangrid said. "NextEra cannot and should not be allowed to block new market entry for its own financial benefit."

Ohio’s Sammis coal plant, saved by House Bill 6, now set to close in 2028 - cleveland.com — The Sammis coal power plant along the Ohio River in Jefferson County will close its remaining units at the end of 2028, owner Energy Harbor notified state officials in a letter earlier this month.The Oct. 12 letter, sent to the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, didn’t explicitly state why the plant was shutting down. However, the letter noted that new federal wastewater pollution discharge limits for coal power plants go into effect at the end of 2025.Energy Harbor already closed four of the plant’s seven units last year; the remaining three units will close Dec. 31, 2028, according to the letter. A copy of the letter was provided to cleveland.com by the Sierra Club, which obtained it from the Ohio EPA.Ohio EPA spokesman James Lee confirmed to cleveland.com that the agency received the letter. Cleveland.com has reached out to Energy Harbor for comment.Three years ago, Energy Harbor -- then a FirstEnergy Corp. subsidiary called FirstEnergy Solutions -- announced plans to fully close the 61-year-old power plant by 2022. But those plans were reversed in 2019 with the passage of the scandal-ridden House Bill 6.HB6 didn’t directly subsidize the Sammis plant, but Energy Harbor CEO John Judge said the bill’s $1 billion-plus bailout of the company’s two Ohio nuclear power plans would allow the company to be “economically healthy” enough to keep the Sammis plant running.

PUCO staffer pushed to soften criticism of coal-plant customer charges in state-commissioned audit - (PUCO AEP correspondence embedded) Public Utilities Commission of Ohio staffer Mahila Christopher directed an independent auditor conducting an audit of AEP Ohio's customer charges to subsidize two aging coal power plants that she should use a "milder tone and intensity of language" in the audit, including deleting a statement that "keeping the plants running does not seem to be in the best interests of the ratepayers.” (Ohio Consumers' Counsel) COLUMBUS, Ohio — A staffer with Ohio’s utility watchdog recommended an independent auditor last year to change language from a draft audit report critical of American Electric Power’s ratepayer subsidies of two coal-fired power plants, emails show. Public Utilities Commission of Ohio staffer Mahila Christopher, directed the audit firm to use a “milder tone and intensity” in its report about the AEP subsidies. Critics say it’s evidence that commission staff is overly friendly with the big utility companies they oversee, though spokespeople for the PUCO and AEP say parts of the draft audit were deleted because they went beyond what the audit was supposed to examine.

 Chesapeake Utilities Completes $7.3 Million RNG Pipeline Project in Ohio - Chesapeake Utilities Corp. announced Oct. 14 that construction of its Noble Road Landfill Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) pipeline project has been completed. The company’s subsidiary, Aspire Energy of Ohio, constructed the 33.1-mile pipeline, which will transport RNG generated from the Noble Road Landfill in Shiloh, Ohio, to Aspire Energy’s pipeline system, displacing conventionally produced natural gas. In conjunction with this expansion, Aspire Energy also upgraded an existing compressor station and installed two new metering and regulation sites. Chesapeake Utilities invested $7.3 million in the project, which was constructed in just over a six-month period. Throughput of the RNG is expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2021. The company expects to generate gross margin of $0.1 million in 2021; $0.75 million annually in 2022 through 2025; and $1 million in 2026 and thereafter. Aspire Energy partnered with OPAL Fuels, an emerging leader in the production and distribution of RNG, and Rumpke Waste & Recycling, one of the nation’s largest privately-owned residential and commercial waste and recycling firms. Rumpke will extract and capture waste methane from the Noble Road Landfill, and OPAL Fuels will utilize its new, state-of-the-art facility to remove carbon dioxide and other components from the methane, purifying the biogas to pipeline quality standards. In addition to supplying Aspire Energy’s customers, the RNG will be dispensed into fueling stations to fuel compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles also via OPAL Fuels.

Legislators hear of water woes from pipeline neighbors - — “All I want is good water,” said military veteran and Johnstown, Cambria County, resident Ron Shawley.  Shawley told three elected officials, reporters and the public, during Wednesday morning’s event at the state Capitol Rotunda, about living 20 feet from a pipeline. Shawley blamed Mariner East pipeline builder Sunoco/Energy Transfer for fouling his drinking water during ongoing pipeline construction at the event, “Standing for the Right to Clean Water: Stories from the Mariner East Pipeline Project.”“I was led to believe that this gas company would take care of me,” Shawley said.Shawley claims that the pipeline builder went off-course while digging and laying pipe and hit his well.“If you work with us, we will work with you,” he said he was told by the pipeline builder.Shawley, and two others who spoke at the rally, hail from across the state and live nearby to pipeline construction. They have refused to sign non-disclosure agreements. Shawley was told that if he signed he would give up his right to speak with politicians or the media.The Johnstown resident called for Gov. Tom Wolf to put a stop to construction since the governor “must certainly know what is going on” with at least 150 wells fouled statewide.The 1930s era active pipeline right-of-way stretches 350 miles from Marcellus shale deposits in Ohio, West Virginia and across the breadth of Pennsylvania, to the Marcus Hook Refinery in Delaware County. The pipeline is designed for the shipment of the by-product of fracking for overseas production of plastics. The three elected officials called for the Department of Environmental Protection and Wolf to pull the ME2 DEP permits until what they say are damaged wells are restored, and for fellow legislators to enact tougher laws.The representatives called for adherence to the state Constitution, which guarantees clean water and air.Also noted by the public officials was Attorney General Josh Shapiro’s lodging of 48 counts of environmental crimes following a grand jury investigation. Sunoco/ET could only be fined, with no criminal time served, if convicted.

Philadelphia Gas Works’ Natural Gas Pricing Called Anti-Competitive by District Energy Supplier - Natural Gas Intelligence - Vicinity Energy, which specializes in district energy systems for buildings and campuses, has filed a formal complaint with Pennsylvania regulators alleging that Philadelphia Gas Works (PGW) has anti-competitive natural gas pricing. Headquartered in Boston, Vicinity has 19 district energy systems nationwide. District energy entails producing thermal energy at a central facility and transporting it to buildings via underground piping. Vicinity said Monday its complaint, filed with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC). alleges that PGW’s gas pricing is “anti-competitive and designed to make district energy steam…significantly more expensive for customers.” Vicinity said its existing contract with PGW, first executed in 1996, expires at the end of next year. It said it has helped to ensure its customers in Philadelphia’s city center receive “clean, reliable and affordable steam service.” Under a new contract offer made last February, PGW would continue to transport gas to Vicinity’s Grays Ferry combined heat and power (CHP) plant in South Philadelphia. However, the price would be hiked by more than 1,000%, Vicinity said. It also noted that it purchases the natural gas from third-party suppliers. “In its formal complaint to the PUC, Vicinity contests the drastic increase in the cost to transport gas through PGW’s pipelines and claims it is anti-competitive, unreasonable and an attempt to impose significant anti-competitive pressure on Vicinity’s mission critical energy services,” the company said. As “PGW’s largest customer,” Vicinity said it consumes gas at the CHP plant to generate electricity and steam. The electricity is supplied to the PJM Interconnection LLC’s electric grid. The steam is used to heat and cool buildings and provide for critical processes such as sterilizing labs and surgical equipment in hospitals. “Because the steam is a byproduct of the CHP process, it is a clean, low-carbon and efficient alternative to directly consuming gas onsite in individual buildings,” said Vicinity. Vicinity also maintains PGW’s new contract offer would cause it to shift from firm gas delivery to interruptible supply scenario. “If permitted, this provides PGW with the ability to suspend the supply of gas to Vicinity at any time, which would interrupt the co-generation of electricity and steam in its plant,” said Vicinity. “While Vicinity Energy has backup options (including dual-fuel steam generators, portable steam generators and fuel oil reserves) and system redundancies, interruptible supply is unacceptable to Vicinity and the needs of its customers, including major hospitals, research labs, universities and government buildings.” Vicinity said it has repeatedly sought to resolve the dispute and outreach efforts continue. However, it claimed that a “huge divide” remains between both parties as PGW has refused to “provide any justification or substantiation of their proposed increases.”

House Bill 2581 is changing the way oil and gas is being valued in the Mountain State | WTRF - The valuation of oil and gas wells is changing in West Virginia.On Tuesday night, those property owners were invited to a presentation by the Ohio County Commissioners to hear from the state’s acting deputy tax commissioner.House Bill 2581, which was passed by both the house and senate and signed by Governor Justice earlier this year, was the focus of discussion.The house bill changes the way oil and gas in the Mountain state is being valued. This change in valuation affects the oil and gas producers as well as the property owners who own their mineral rights.Both the property owners and producers are worried about an increase in their tax billsAt this point, according to the Ohio County Assessor’s Office, property owners are mostly frustrated because they don’t understand how the minerals on their property are being valued by the state of West Virginia.The legislative rule-making committee is currently taking property owners comments under advisement before publically releasing just how this tax valuation will look.For those people who want to express their concerns, Winter encourages them to go to www.wvsos.com.

WV landowners want property back from the ACP - Jeff Mills enjoys growing Christmas trees across from his front yard. A few cows live on a hill behind his house. But in 2015, he got some unwelcome news. Mills learned that his 290-acre property was in the path of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline project, a natural gas pipeline planned to stretch hundreds of miles from West Virginia to North Carolina. An offshoot from the larger pipeline was supposed to run near the side of the Mills’ house. Mills didn’t want the pipeline on his property. But ACP had the power — called eminent domain — to take it anyway. Federal regulators gave ACP that power as part of their approval of the project. So Mills, like many, said he agreed to negotiate. But in July 2020, companies Dominion Energy and Duke Energy announced they were canceling the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. Now, Mills and other landowners face a different question: What’s next for the land that used to be theirs? In Doddridge County, the Mills’ property remains physically untouched, though contractors had already started clearing trees nearby when news of the pipeline’s cancellation broke. But there’s still an orange banner in one tree and a wooden stake in the ground, constant reminders that this swath of property doesn’t belong to him anymore. And it’s the uncertainty of what could happen to that easement that Mills says he’s nervous about. “A different company, a different pipeline … it’s not over,” Mills said. When Dominion Energy proposed the 600-mile ACP in 2015, the company said it was needed to diversify the region’s energy mix as more coal-fired plants retire. Construction began in 2017, after the project was approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. But after years of legal battles — mostly from environmental groups arguing FERC had overlooked impacts on climate change, and on local water systems and utilities — the companies pulled the plug on both the main pipeline and the smaller Supply Header pipeline, the offshoot that was going to run across the Mills property in Doddridge County. “At that point, a lot of times people throw in the towel,” said Megan Gibson, an attorney who advocates for landowners with the Washington, D.C.- based Niskanen Center. “‘We’re done, we won, the pipeline’s dead.’ For landowners, that’s obviously not true.” Among the three states, FERC documents say the proposed pipeline would’ve crossed more than 2,600 easements, covering nearly 4,300 acres of land — all of which Duke and Dominion now own the rights to. In Doddridge County, gravel covers land where developers were working on a canceled pipeline. Photo by Emily Allen. Some landowners have miles of the pipeline already installed on their properties. Contractors for Duke and Dominion also cleared trees along more than 110 miles across West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina, leaving about half of the felled trees on the property. “Even if there’s nothing visible out on the land, there’s a public record out at the courthouse that restricts that landowner’s rights and that property’s value,” Howell said. “The easements all prohibit building a structure. That means if you want to put a barn there, you cannot. If you want to put a house or shed there, you cannot. And the company has the right to come onto the property to do what they want.”

Pipeline's efforts to unmask critics by subpoena met with silence from Facebook - Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC does not appear to have found a friend in Facebook. The company building a natural gas pipeline through Southwest Virginia filed a subpoena in a civil case, asking Facebook to reveal the identities of the people who set up its Appalachians Against Pipelines page anonymously. Two months later, it is still waiting for a reply. At a hearing last week in Roanoke’s federal court, attorney Seth Land said the company has not heard back from Facebook. He declined to elaborate after the hearing, referring questions to a company spokeswoman. “As a matter of policy, we do not share detailed information regarding litigation strategy,” Natalie Cox wrote in an email. Mountain Valley contends in court papers that it needs to know the names, emails and phone numbers of those who manage the Appalachians Against Pipelines Facebook page to address “serious safety issues” raised by protesters at a construction site. The company asked for the records as it tries to determine what role the anti-pipeline group played in encouraging opponents to show up Aug. 11 at the Bent Mountain property of John Coles and Theresa “Red” Terry. Mountain Valley says the protesters risked the safety of themselves and pipeline workers by standing within 50 feet of loaded explosives that were being using to blast a path through bedrock for the buried pipeline. It is seeking an injunction that would require observers to maintain a safe distance in the future. Issued Aug. 20, the subpoena asked that Facebook respond by Sept. 17. While Mountain Valley says it needs the information to ensure public safety, others counter that the subpoena is nothing more than an effort to unmask and intimidate the company’s anonymous critics. “MVP is harassing grassroots political opponents by seeking personal information about activists working to protect those harmed by an unnecessary and dangerous fracked gas project,” Appalachians Against Pipelines said in a statement. A representative for the group said last week that it has received no communications from Facebook about the subpoena. An attorney for the Electronic Frontier Foundation — a San Francisco-based nonprofit that advocates for privacy and free speech on the internet — has said it has concerns about a company seeking to unmask its critics without good cause. If Mountain Valley is to get the information it wants, it would have to show a legitimate need that outweighs the right of Appalachians Against Pipelines organizers to remain unidentified, according to Bennet Kelley, a lawyer who runs the Internet Law Center in Santa Monica, California. “Anonymous speech has long been protected speech, going back to the Federalist Papers,” Kelley said, referring to the writings of America’s founders, who used the pen name “Publius” in newspaper pieces to avoid retaliation for their support of the U.S. Constitution.

Pipeline protesters face judge in Montgomery County (WDBJ) - Opponents of the Mountain Valley Pipeline who were arrested during a protest in August were in court Monday.Ten defendants were convicted of misdemeanors and fined, but they won’t be spending time in jail.In their agreement with prosecutors, each of the defendants was found guilty of a single misdemeanor, obstructing free passage of others.“I’m disappointed that the governments that are supposed to protect us are instead punishing us,” said Peatmoss Ellis, one of the defendants. “We’re here today out of love and concern for the future and the future generations to come.”They were charged during an August 9 protest on Cove Hollow Road, an action that blocked pipeline construction crews for several hours.Their civil disobedience, they said, was an act of conscience fueled by their concern about climate change.“We’re going through a climate disaster and people must take decisive action,” said Alex Williams. “I know that I was on the right side of history,” added Jim Steitz. “The people building this pipeline will not be able to say that.” Mountain Valley Pipeline spokesperson Natalie Cox released the following statement Monday evening.“While we respect the opinions of those who oppose the MVP project and natural gas infrastructure in general, there is no excuse for the unlawful actions taken by these activists,” she wrote in an email. “We believe there is common ground for all Virginians – and, indeed, all Americans – to reject the kind of attention-seeking, criminal behavior promoted by certain project opponents such as those engaged in these types of activities.”Each of the ten defendants received a suspended jail sentence and a fine of $150.They are prohibited from going on MVP property or easements for 12 months, and the judge ordered them to stay out of Montgomery County for a year.

Franklin County landowners settle lawsuit against Mountain Valley Pipeline -Six Franklin County landowners whose property was swamped by muddy runoff from the Mountain Valley Pipeline three years ago have settled their lawsuit against the company.Terms of the settlement were not disclosed in a brief order filed in Roanoke’s federal court.Brought in May 2018, the lawsuit sought damages for three couples who live a short distance from Cahas Mountain Road, which was buried in about eight inches of mud that washed from a construction site during heavy rains.The runoff continued downhill to land owned by Wendell and Mary Flora, leaving a blanket of sediment and muddy water that covered hayfields and made its way into nearly streams, the lawsuit alleged. Glenn and Linda Frith and Michael and Frances Hurt, who live less than half a mile away, claimed they suffered similar harm from erosion caused by a several-day storm that started May 15, 2018.The lawsuit accused Mountain Valley of creating a nuisance, damaging property that it had not acquired through eminent domain and trespassing by virtue of the soil, water and mud that it allowed to invade its neighbors’ land.Total damages exceeded $9,000 and were likely to increase with future rains, according to documents filed at the time by Isak Howell, an attorney for the nonprofit law firm of Appalachian Mountain Advocates.Mountain Valley spokeswoman Natalie Cox declined to comment Monday, saying the settlement was confidential. Howell also declined to comment. What happened on Cahas Mountain Road — which was closed for a day while bulldozers removed the mud from the rural highway — was one of the more publicly visible examples of environmental damage caused by building a massive pipeline on the steep slopes of Southwest Virginia.In the days before the rainfall started, regulators received calls from citizens who were concerned that heavy equipment being used to remove downed trees and clear a 125-foot-wide swath for the buried pipeline was exposing the land to potential runoff problems.After the storm, Virginia’s Department of Environmental Quality ordered that construction in the area be halted until proper erosion control measures were established. Although work was allowed to resume several days later, DEQ later cited Mountain Valley for hundreds of other infractions along the pipeline’s 107-mile route through six Virginia counties.About $2.5 million in fines have been imposed by DEQ and its counterpart in West Virginia, where the natural gas pipeline starts.

Activists Want Regulators to Consider Environmental and Racial Justice Implications of the Mountain Valley Pipeline - State officials are about to make a key decision that could have environmental ramifications for generations to come. But, the decision could also have racial justice implications. In the next few weeks, the State Water Control Board will vote on whether to grant certification to the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which would carry fracked natural gas 300 miles from northern West Virginia to Southside Virginia. Environmentalists are raising concerns about water quality, but social justice advocates are also speaking out. Kidest Gebre at Virginia Interfaith Power and Light says the proposal would perpetuate patterns of environmental racism. "The Southgate compressor station, the Lambert compressor station, is sited near a community that's an African American community as well as there's an African American family living right next to the proposed compressor station," Gebre says. "So that makes it an environmental racism and an environmental injustice concern." Harry Godfrey at Virginia Advanced Energy Economy says it's important to ask questions about how views about race influence decisions about infrastructure. "Where were right-of-ways established 10, 20, 50 or 100 years ago? And if you had a society that said these communities are not as important as those communities you can get into these scenarios where we bake in infrastructure decisions that can lead to inequitable outcomes," says Godfrey. Members of the Water Control Board will be hearing from advocates for and against the pipeline as they approach a final decision later this year.

 Williams Leveraging Natural Gas Footprint to Advance RSG, RNG and Zero-Carbon Initiatives - The natural gas industry may no longer equivocate about whether to responsibly produce and transport lower carbon fuel, as customers are lining up in North America and abroad, according to a Williams executive. At the LDC Natural Gas Forum held earlier in October in New Orleans, Williams’ Angela John shared the midstream infrastructure giant’s strategy to capture opportunities from low- and net-zero carbon fuels. John joined Williams earlier this year as Business Development director for the company’s New Energy Ventures unit. Certifying supply as differentiated or responsibly sourced gas (RSG) is gaining momentum, offering companies a big opportunity, John said.“RSG gives us a great opportunity” to demonstrate “authenticity,” as the company has committed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. “RSG can be a proof point for our climate commitment progress as well,” she told the audience.Energy initiatives are expanding within the framework of environmental, social and governance (ESG). Using differentiated gas demonstrates those commitments to the all-important investor community too. There are various ways to certify gas, which when done well, provides transparency across the “full value chain,” John said. It also ensures “our social licence to operate…We need to solidify natural gas’ place in the clean energy future.”

New York State Denies Permit for New Astoria Power Plant - The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) on Wednesday denied a controversial proposal for a new, fracked gas power plant in Astoria—a victory for environmental activists who say the project is not in line with the state’s energy emission goals. In 2020, Astoria Gas Turbine Power, LLC—a subsidiary of the energy company NRG—applied for a Clean Air Act Title V air permit as part of its plans to build a fossil fuel–fired turbine generator in the northwest Queens neighborhood. The plant would replace a 50-year-old high-polluting “peaker plant” with a more modern fracked gas facility, according to NRG, which also said the company plans to eventually switch the plant to generate renewable energy. But DEC said that the project was not in line with the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, which was signed into law in 2019 and aims to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions by 85 percent by 2050. The agency told City Limits in August that at that time, NRG had not provided sufficient evidence that the project would comply with the CLCPA, but public comment on the proposal was still open for two and half more weeks. In all, DEC said it received more than 6,600 comments about the plan, which inspired multiple protest rallies by environmental groups and community organizers. Approximately 85 percent of those public comments were in opposition to the proposal, according to the state. “The proposed project would be inconsistent with or would interfere with the statewide greenhouse gas emissions limits established in the Climate Act,” said the DEC in a statement Wednesday. “Astoria NRG failed to demonstrate the need or justification for the proposed project notwithstanding this inconsistency.” The decision earned praise from Gov. Kathy Hochul, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and environmental groups. “Climate change is the greatest challenge of our time, and we owe it to future generations to meet our nation-leading climate and emissions reduction goals,” said Hochul in a statement, adding that she “applauded” the DEC’s decision.

DEC denies natural gas power plants based on its climate law, a first for New York — The state Department of Environmental Conservation denied two proposed natural gas power plants by citing New York's new climate law, signaling a precedent-setting moment for a state with aggressive environmental goals. "Both would be inconsistent with New York’s nation-leading climate law, and are not justified or needed for grid reliability," DEC Commissioner Basil Seggos said in a tweet Wednesday. "We must shift to a renewable future." The denial of the two proposed plants, Astoria Gas Turbine Power in Queens and Danskammer Energy Center in Newburgh, marked a milestone in the implementation of the state's Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act. The proposed plants would "interfere with the statewide greenhouse gas emissions limits established in the Climate Act," Seggos said in a statement. The state is seeking to bring greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below the 1990 levels by 2030, and 85 percent below the 1990 levels by 2050, according to its climate law. The energy plant proposals conflict with more long-term goals of the state's climate law, according to the denial letter from DEC. "Constructing and operating a new fossil fuel-fired power plant accomplishes the exact opposite and perpetuates a reliance on fossil fuels," the letter to Astoria Gas said. The decision was celebrated by environmental advocates, who were looking toward the permit renewals as a test of how the state would implement its climate law. "This is a major victory and a first interpretation," said Roger Downs, conservation director of the Sierra Club Atlantic chapter. Downs was speaking at an Assembly hearing on how "proof of work" cryptocurrency mining at coal plants in the state comports with the climate act. At the hearing, DEC and the Public Service Commission declined to attend, Chair Steve Englebright said. He harangued the agencies for not showing up. The permit denial was announced minutes before the hearing in Albany.

Federal Govt. to Investigate North BK Pipeline Approval Process -- For more than a year, Brooklyn activists have been fighting against the completion of National Grid’s North Brooklyn natural gas pipeline, arguing that its construction discriminated against communities of color.Now, after filing a federal civil rights complaint in August, the groups opposing the pipeline have got the attention of the United States Environmental Protection Agency.The EPA said it will investigate the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation’s actions in approving the pipeline following the complaint filed by Brownsville Green Justice, the Ocean Hill-Brownsville Coalition of Young Professionals, Mi Casa Resiste, and the Indigenous Kinship Collective.The complaint says that DEC was aware of National Grid’s alleged violations during the construction of the pipeline — which runs through predominantly communities of color — which allegedly included failing to notify community members of the project and bypassing critical safety and health regulations.Despite these issues, the complaint alleges that DEC failed to conduct the appropriate environmental reviews and allowed the project to proceed, adding that it would not have given its approval if the project been planned in predominantly white communities.Phases 1-4 of the pipeline are completed and currently transporting fracked gas through the Brownsville, Ocean Hill, Bushwick, East Williamsburg and Williamsburg neighborhoods. The Greenpoint portion of the pipeline and project has been halted.The EPA said in a letter that it would investigate why DEC failed to conduct an environmental review of the entire pipeline and only issued a “negative declaration” declaring no adverse impact for a small subsection of the project, and it would also look into why DEC failed to properly engage and consult impacted communities in the review process.The EPA also said that it would refer investigation of National Grid and the Department of Public Service, which are also named in the complaint, for consideration to the Departments of Justice, Transportation, and Energy.

Natural Gas Issues Could Impact New England This Winter - — Federal energy regulators predict natural gas may be in short supply for New England this winter. New England electric generators are more dependent on natural gas than any other fuel, with about 52 percent of generation produced by natural gas facilities. According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s annual assessment of winter energy markets and reliability, in extreme winter conditions the region’s commercial and industrial sectors may have to curtail activities and there may be outages in the natural gas and electric sectors. But the report notes there should be ample fuel supplies to produce enough power to meet demand under expected conditions. The report does say greater exports of liquified natural gas into the global market, reduced reserves and limited pipeline capacity could negatively impact New England. Due to limited pipeline capacity, New England relies on LNG to bolster the fuel supply during peak winter months, but now will be competing for those supplies with the global market, particularly East Asia and Europe, according to federal regulators. During the winter months natural gas use for heating is a higher priority on pipelines as providers enter into long-term firm transmission contrasts with operators, but most power generators do not and that also impacts prices, regulators noted. They also said there is little storage capacity in New England which also impacts prices and system reliability. Natural gas prices have doubled from what they were a year ago in much of the country, according to the assessment, but at the Algonquin Citygate hub near Boston, the price is four times higher than last year heading into the winter.

Massachusetts Regulators Approve New LNG Import Facility - Alternatives to the new Mass. LNG facility, such as expanding interstate natural gas pipelines, are more harmful to the environment, EFSB's Andre Gibeau said.

West Milford NJ: Passaic County postpones opposition to compressor — County commissioners again pushed pause on plans to oppose a pipeline company's proposal to construct a new natural gas compressor station near the Monksville Reservoir. Despite receiving dozens of letters and public comments in opposition to the Tennessee Gas Pipeline's East 300 Upgrade Project this year, Commissioner Director Pat Lepore said he unilaterally pulled the resolution to give supportive stakeholders an opportunity to "state their case" at the commission's Nov. 9 meeting. "I just wanted to be fair with them and let them prepare," Lepore said. "They come. They make their case. They're open to questions from the board, and the board makes a decision at that time." Pending Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval, the East 300 Upgrade Project would push more gas through North Jersey to feed Consolidated Edison's connections in New York State. The project involves compressor station upgrades in Wantage and Pennsylvania. The West Milford station would be new. This spring, West Milford resident Terry Duffy was among the county commissioners who voiced their objections to the project — namely the proposed 19,000-horsepower compressor proposed for a former quarry in West Milford. A resolution in opposition was created. Commissioners, however, pulled the resolution, declining to take a stance as officials in West Milford negotiated with pipeline officials regarding safety assurances, insurance and compensation. The town was one of several where construction of an affiliated pipeline loop a decade earlier destabilized hillsides and silted waterbodies. West Milford, Wantage and other area residents have opposed the East 300 Upgrade primarily over fears of air pollution, water contamination, noise and environmental impacts associated with the gas' end use. Pipeline officials have said the proposed compressor turbine in West Milford will be electric-driven and produce little noise or emissions. They also said new gas hookups fueled by the new compressors may displace some more highly-polluting heating oil systems.

AES wants customers to pay extra as Eagle Valley power plant sits offline for 6 months - Just days shy of its three-year anniversary in April, AES Indiana’s Eagle Valley natural gas plant conked out — the result of human and technical error. Six months later, it is still offline as the utility works to repair the issues.To make up for the shortfall, AES Indiana, formerly Indianapolis Power & Light, had to buy roughly $1.2 million worth of power from the grid. And, now, AES wants you — the customer — to pay for it.The company has officially asked state regulators to raise bills to cover that cost. That would mean customers would pay more for a power plant they already have been paying for despite sitting idle.AES is asking to pass along the full $1.2 million. That means customers would pay roughly an extra $1 per month over six months. The utility, in its filings to the state utility regulatory commission,wrote that it "took appropriate steps to mitigate the duration and costs of the outage” and therefore, the regulators should allow the costs incurred from this incident to land on customers’ bills.Consumer advocates and environmental groups, however, are pushing back. “It’s like paying for a mortgage while you can’t live in your house,” said Kerwin Olson, executive director of the Citizens Action Coalition. “Customers are basically paying the mortgage for Eagle Valley while the plant isn’t running." And now, he said, those same customers are being asked to pay for the hotel they’re being forced to stay in.Indiana regulators held a technical conference on Thursday and have also scheduled an evidentiary hearing for Nov. 12, both to help the commission better understand the situation and the information in support and opposition of the request. A decision in this case likely is expected near the end of November, according to a spokeswoman with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission.

Eversource Gas asks for $33 million for a second pipeline in Springfield; doesn’t plan to change its property tax views - While still owing millions of dollars in property taxes to municipalities in Massachusetts, Eversource is asking for roughly $33 million to install a secondary natural gas pipeline in Springfield and Longmeadow that will be funded, if approved, by ratepayers. In addition to the outstanding taxes owed by the energy giant, there has been growing opposition to the pipeline from residents stating health and safety concerns in addition to questions regarding who will pay the project’s multi-million dollar price tag. “Just step back and look at the safety record for natural gas,” said William Akley, president of the Gas Business at Eversource. “It is by far one of the safest means of energy available.” “It certainly not as safe as renewable energy,” said Verne McArthur, Springfield Climate Justice Coalition member. “We had an explosion here in Springfield, I think 8 or 10 years ago when it was Columbia gas. They blew up Lawrence. There was just a fire in Marshfield, which burned for 9 hours because of Eversource’s confusion over the location of the shutoff valves.” Almost exactly 1 year ago on Oct. 9, 2020, Eversource purchased the former Columbia Gas of Massachusetts for $1.1 billion. Eversource reported full-year 2020 earnings of $1.205 billion, up from the previous year’s earnings of $909.1 million. This included after-tax costs of Columbia Gas’ Massachusetts operations, which includes facilities in Springfield, Brockton and Lawrence.

FERC's Glick urges power plant owners to line up fuel supplies as gas prices soar - Increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are contributing to rising U.S. natural gas prices by decreasing domestic supply, which could have a major effect on New England’s energy markets this winter, according to FERC staff.Average forward natural gas prices across U.S. trading hubs for the upcoming winter have more than doubled from a year ago, to $5.63 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), with prices more than quadrupling, to $18.18/MMbtu, at the Algonquin hub near Boston, FERC staff said Thursday in its annual winter energy market and reliability assessment.Although regions across the country have reserve margins of at least 26%, FERC Chairman Richard Glick warned that that metric of adequate power supply may no longer be valid in the face of extreme weather, which can knock large numbers of power plants offline.With natural gas prices climbing across the United States, during FERC's monthly meeting, Glick urged generators with capacity obligations to arrange fuel contracts and start the winter with sufficient fuel supplies.All planning regions across the U.S. expect to have more than enough generation capacity to meet their needs, but fuel supplies could be a problem, according to FERC staff."Fuel availability remains critical to reliability of the bulk power system this winter," a FERC staffer said during the commission’s monthly meeting. "Regions with high levels of natural gas generation may experience scarcity of natural gas supplies, especially in the Northeast."FERC staff said natural gas demand is expected to average 111 billion cubic feet a day (Bcfd) this winter, up 2.5% from the same period last winter. The increase is mainly driven by a 21% jump in LNG gross exports, they said.The warning about high natural gas prices this winter comes as the Industrial Energy Consumers of America, a trade group for manufacturers, is urging the Department of Energy to limit LNG exports to keep gas prices in check this winter.During the meeting, Glick asked FERC staff members to what extent LNG exports were affecting domestic natural gas prices. Expectations for rising LNG exports are already reflected in forward natural gas prices, they said. Also, the price risk from selling LNG to other countries is limited to how much the U.S. can export, according to staff. The U.S. currently can export 10.8 Bcfd, but with two LNG facilities preparing to come online, exports could reach 12.3 Bcfd this winter, staff said at the meeting. In New England, soaring natural gas prices are partly driven by the region’s limited natural gas pipeline capacity and competition for LNG cargoes in light of rising worldwide energy prices, FERC staff said."New England's dependence on natural gas and rising global LNG demand are expected to have a significant impact on New England natural gas markets" staff said.Extremely cold temperatures in New England present challenges for natural gas supply, electricity markets and electric reliability, according to FERC staff.Although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a warmer-than-normal winter for most of the U.S., and reserve margins appear adequate, cold snaps can affect power supply, Glick said."The reality is that reserve margins aren't necessarily guarantors of reliable operation," Glick said, pointing to mid-February blackouts in Texas and other states.Glick said he is bothered that generators in ISO New England (ISO-NE) get capacity payments but don’t necessarily take steps to make sure they have enough fuel for the coldest winter days, even under the grid operator's pay-for-performance capacity framework. Local natural gas utilities typically contract for firm pipeline deliveries, but natural gas power plants in New England generally don’t use firm contacts, which can limit their deliveries in the winter, staff said. FERC’s report indicates the U.S. is facing gas scarcity, according to Commissioner James Danly. At the same time, FERC has delayed approving natural gas projects and injected uncertainty into the natural gas sector, he said."It seems to be fashionable to ignore what you would call the reliability consequences of the increased penetration of intermittents into the electric system, but those consequences are real, and when paired with gas scarcity, it really does not bode well for the stability of the electric system," Danly said.

FERC Projects $5.63 Henry Hub Natural Gas Price for Winter - Despite projecting higher-than-average temperatures across much of the United States this winter that would typically dampen gas-fired power demand, FERC last week predicted rising natural gas prices for the period. Winter Futures Prices A newly released Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report, “2021-2022 Winter Energy Market and Reliability Assessment,” anticipates an average Henry Hub futures price of $5.63/MMBtu for November through February 2022. The price forecast represents a $2.85, or 103%, increase from the winter 2020-2021 settled futures price, FERC said in the report. Among various hubs, FERC stated that it expects the highest winter 2021-2022 futures prices at the Algonquin Citygate hub near Boston: $18.18 — a sharp increase from $4.20 last winter. The Commission report cited limited New England pipeline capacity and stiffening global competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes as key factors driving its Algonquin price projection. “High expected natural gas prices in New England this winter could incentivize more LNG imports into the region,” FERC researchers said. The FERC outlook predicted U.S. natural gas production to average 94 Bcf/d this winter — a 3.2 Bcf/d increase from the corresponding period in 2020-2021. In terms of average winter demand, the report assumed a 2.5% year/year increase to 111 Bcf/d. “This forecasted demand increase primarily is due to an anticipated increase of 21% in LNG exports relative to last winter,” FERC stated. The Commission expects rising seasonal gas demand across the commercial, residential and industrial/other sectors. Not all of FERC’s winter gas projections point upward, however. Researchers are projecting an 8% decline in power burn against the winter 2020-2021 figure. Moreover, it cited the recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that gas storage inventories will begin winter 2021-2022 at 3,572 Bcf, 5% below the five-year average. More dramatically, propane storage levels are poised to start the season 20% below the five-year average, FERC added.

Lower 48 Natural Gas Giant EQT Posts Sharp 3Q Loss, but Dealmaking to Cut Transport Costs -- EQT Corp., which on Thursday reported a larger year/year loss for the third quarter, said that it expects a pair of 2021 deals to lower its firm gas transportation costs by about 5 cents/Mcfe going forward. In one deal, EQT reached an agreement to sell down up to 525 million Dth/d firm transportation capacity on its Mountain Valley Pipeline to an undisclosed entity, while retaining Southeast market access. The second transaction would allow EQT to increase gas deliveries to Rockies and Midwest markets via a new firm capacity deal on the Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) EQT, which now boasts 930 million Dth/d of firm REX transportation, said it would enjoy a “significantly discounted reservation rate” on REX capacity through March 2025.The nation’s largest U.S. natural gas producer attributed the 3Q2021 loss to a one-time charge related to hedging. In other words, EQT made a bad bet on the direction of natural gas prices during the quarter. Other quarterly losses included depreciation and depletion increases, along with higher transportation and processing expenses.“Our reasons for hedging 2022 production at the levels we did while continuing to keep 2023 exposure open is simple,” said CEO Toby Z. Rice. “We believe that regaining our investment grade rating and reducing absolute debt levels best positions EQT shareholders to fully capture the thematic long-term tailwinds in the commodity.” The Pittsburgh-based independent is not alone in reporting a missed hedging opportunity for the third quarter. Royal Dutch Shell plc also revealed that ithad been stung during the period by a hedging strategy with limited spot gas market exposure. EQT’s executive team had also faced scrutiny over its hedging strategy in July. According to EQT, increased sales of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGL) and oil, higher investment income and a higher income tax benefit partially offset the most recent quarterly loss.“Since we last reported in July, we’ve seen a fundamental shift in the natural gas market,” said Rice. “Current world events demonstrate the critical importance that natural gas will play in our energy future. EQT reported $1.784 billion in natural gas, NGL and oil revenue, or 495 Bcfe total, for 3Q2021. It attributed the $1.185 billion improvement from 3Q2020 to a 129 Bcfe increase in volumes for the period — but at a consistent $2.33 average realized price for both reporting periods. For the third quarter, total operating costs were $1.25/Mcfe, with a year-to-date well cost of $680/lateral foot in the southwestern portion of the Marcellus in Pennsylvania. It also had $297 million in capital expenditures, up $49 million year/year, as well as $99 million in FCF, which was up $52 million. In addition, EQT had $48 million in net cash from operating activities, which was down $136 million year/year.

Rising U.S. natural gas prices aren’t just a supply issue but a policy one - Natural gas prices in the United States and across the globe are forecast to reach highs this winter not seen since before the shale revolution changed the dynamics of U.S. energy markets. And while it’s true that demand is currently outpacing supply, that’s not because the country has suddenly run out of natural gas. As USA Today reports: “Are we going to run out of natural gas? Not anytime soon. [Tortoise Capital’s Rob] Thummel called the U.S. the Saudi Arabia of natural gas and estimated that the nation has a 100-year supply underground. But what about the infrastructure needed to transport natural gas? That’s in short supply. Basically, the U.S. doesn’t have enough export facilities, pipelines and storage to quickly increase capacity, Thummel, said. What’s more, he added, investors have rewarded energy companies in recent years for returning cash to shareholders rather than investing in new production. This confluence of events is undermining access to the fuel used to run your furnace.” In fact, Potential Gas Committee’s recent biennial analysis of U.S. natural gas reserves found the United States has nearly 3,368 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas: “The Atlantic Area ranks as the country’s richest resource area with 39 percent of total U.S. gas resources, followed by the Mid-Continent with 18 percent, the Rocky Mountains with 17 percent, and the Gulf Coast (including the Gulf of Mexico) with 16 percent.” According to PGC, most of the nation’s natural gas resources can be found in the Atlantic Area of the country, home to the prolific Marcellus and Utica shales

Volatile Natural Gas Markets Forecast for 18 Months or Longer, Along with More U.S. LNG Export Projects - The U.S. natural gas markets are going to see big swings for at least the next year and a half, with production volumes exiting this year at about the same rate as when the year began, according to an IHS Markit expert. HH IHS Markit’s Jack Weixel, senior director of the Gas, Power and Energy Futures practice, offered his take about the swings in the global market, as well as the outlook for U.S. pipeline infrastructure growth, at the recent LDC Natural Gas Forums conference in New Orleans. “I think that volatility is here to stay for a minimum of 18 months,” he told the audience. Domestic gas production this year has been “stagnant…We’re going to basically exit 2021 at the same volumes that we entered it…It takes producers some time to ramp,” and activity has remained sluggish. “You really need to have stability of supply — and growing supply — to meet this growing demand,” Weixel said. “It’s one of the very unique things about this market.” The price volatility going forward “may not all be weatherization issues” like the shocking Winter Storm Uri last February “because I think that’s being resolved in a lot of places. But certainly, where there are fuel shortages, you will see price spikes.” Lower 48 liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility expansions are set to continue on the Gulf Coast to help supply thirsty overseas markets. IHS Markit, mirroring other analyst forecasts, predicts the Calcasieu Pass LNG facility in Louisiana will be online by year’s end. The TransCameron pipeline that feeds the project was cleared by federal regulators earlier this year to enter service. “We’re actually already seeing flows to Calcasieu Pass,” Weixel said. “We can see the justification for more buildout, certainly, to these Gulf Coast facilities as global demand increases…at least through the end of 2024.” A massive amount of gas is still to be unearthed in the Lower 48. Moving it to end users, though, is no longer a sure thing. “It’s becoming increasingly more challenging to build pipelines in this country in general,” Weixel said. “There’s a new kind of political reality…Things are changing.” Meanwhile, gas pipeline projects proposed or underway in the Lower 48 are dwindling. “In 2017, we saw a peak of 24.2 Bcf/d of new pipeline and 2,100 line miles,” he said of the Lower 48. “But since then, we haven’t hit that peak yet in either capacity additions or line miles.” Projects led by exploration and production (E&P) companies have dried up, in parallel with their cutbacks in capital expenditures and new development. “There wasn’t going to be as much coming out of the ground, so they didn’t invest as much transportation to get it to different places,” Weixel said of the E&Ps. “But I think you also have to recognize that there’s more sophisticated activist engagement” by investors keen to enact environmental, social and governance initiatives. “You also have to recognize the cultural shift toward a ‘green’ movement…Those things are…important, and I think they’ll become more important as we go forward.” To date this year, U.S. pipeline expansions still have exceeded 2020 levels and “are approaching 2019 levels.” By year’s end, around 11 Bcf/d net pipe expansions are expected, along with 1,500 new line miles.

 Energy crisis makes multi-year contracts fashionable again --U.S. manufacturers and other large energy users are starting to lock in natural gas and power costs for at least three years or longer to buffer against price surges this winter, a practice that went out of vogue with the shale boom. With gas prices more than doubling from a year earlier during the annual shopping season for winter fuel, many factories are securing prices until 2024 to help mitigate impending surges, according to consultancy and fuel procurement firm Unified Energy Services LLC. Some are contracting power and gas even later into this decade to guard against near-term and longer-term shocks. That industrial consumers are getting into long-term energy contracts again shows just how seriously companies are taking Europe’s energy crisis. The U.S. is more reliant on natural gas than ever, and Europe’s energy crunch could have spillover effects. Normally U.S. natural gas companies could offset an international supply crunch, but domestic producers aren’t likely to expand because they’re under pressure to better manage their own cash after years of low returns. “If we have a harsh winter, we could have prices we’ve never seen before,” Unified Energy Services LLC Chief Executive Officer Michael Harris said. New England gas is already trading at about $20 per million British thermal units for January, quadruple the U.S. benchmark, and Harris says it could easily jump to $200 if the region has to compete with Europe for imports. When consumers contract gas and power for years, they pay an average price that buffers against price spikes. Right now U.S. gas prices are plummeting in April 2022 so the risk may be limited. Harris works with lot of manufacturers backed by private-equity firms and they are trying to cap energy bills as they face surging costs for other raw materials, he said.

U.S. natgas jumps nearly 12% on cooler forecasts, short covering (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared almost 12% to a near three-week high on Monday on expectations liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will rise and forecasts calling for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. This month has already seen record volatility with futures soaring to their highest close since 2008 on Oct. 6 before collapsing 25% by the middle of last week. But no matter how high U.S. futures have climbed, global gas was still trading about six times over U.S. prices, keeping demand for U.S. LNG exports strong as utilities around the world scramble to refill stockpiles ahead of the winter heating season and meet current energy shortfalls causing power blackouts in China. Front-month gas futures for November delivery rose 61.8 cents, or 11.7%, to settle at $5.898 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That was their biggest daily percentage increase since September 2020 and was the contract's highest close since Oct. 5 when it settled at its highest since December 2008. In addition to the November contract, which expires on Wednesday, prices for the rest of the winter futures (December-March) also gained over 10% on Monday. Over the past three weeks, speculators have cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges to their lowest since July 2020 on growing expectations the United States will have more than enough gas in storage for the winter, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will reach 3.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls short of the 3.7 tcf five-year average. U.S. stockpiles were currently about 4% below the five-year (2016-2020) average for this time of year. In Europe, analysts say stockpiles were about 15% below normal. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to an average of 92.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 89.4 bcfd this week to 91.6 bcfd next week as more homes and businesses turn on their heaters. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected on Friday. Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in October, the same as in September, but was expected to rise in coming weeks as some liquefaction trains exit maintenance outages.

U.S. natgas jumps over 5% to three-week high on cooler forecasts U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 5% to a three-week high on Wednesday in extremely volatile trade ahead of the front-month’s contract expiration on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price increase came despite a slow rise in U.S. output and a 5% drop in European gas prices after Russian President Vladimir Putin told Kremlin-controlled energy giant Gazprom to start pumping gas into European gas storage once Russia finishes filling its own stocks, which may happen by Nov. 8. Gas prices around the world have soared to record highs over the past couple of months as utilities scramble for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to refill low stockpiles in Europe and meet rising demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. U.S. futures followed those global gas prices higher – reaching a 12-year high in early October – on expectations demand for U.S. LNG exports would remain strong. But gas remains much cheaper in the United States than in Europe or Asia, where the fuel was trading about five times higher than in the United States. That’s because the United States has more than enough gas in storage for the winter and ample production to meet domestic and export demand. In addition, U.S. export plants were already producing LNG near full capacity so no matter how high global prices rise, the United States could not export much more of the super-cooled fuel. U.S. stockpiles were currently about 4% below the five-year (2016-2020) average for this time of year. In Europe, analysts say stockpiles were about 15% below normal. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery rose 32.0 cents, or 5.4%, to settle at $6.202 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That was the contract’s highest close since Oct. 5, when it settled at its highest since December 2008. The December contract, which will soon be the front-month, was up 20 cents to $6.20 per mmBtu. The spread between the December and November futures has been on a wild ride this month, rising from 14-cent premium for the December contract at the start of the month to a 30-cent premium for the December contract on Oct. 20 before the November contract soared on its last day to close at a small premium over December on Wednesday. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 92.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 90.7 bcfd this week to 92.7 bcfd next week as more homes and businesses turn on their heaters. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected on Tuesday.

November Natural Gas Expires at $6.20 on Colder Forecasts; Cash Gains Continue -- That roar heard throughout the U.S. gas market on Thursday was that of natural gas futures, which went out like a lion Wednesday as yet another shift in the latest weather data led to continued volatility. The prompt month rolled off the board at $6.202, up 32.0 cents on the day. The December contract, which moves to the front of the curve on Thursday, climbed 19.5 cents to $6.198. Spot gas prices also rallied in the wake of powerful storms that hit the West and East coasts. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. jumped 23.5 cents to $5.785. Despite Wednesday’s positive expiration for the November futures contract, gains did not come easy. Forecasts called for mostly mild conditions through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. NatGasWeather said the lack of widespread freezing low temperatures or highs in the 90s would do little to bolster demand. November futures plunged to a $5.770 intraday low before rebounding on the latest weather model runs. NatGasWeather said the Global Forecast System trended a little chillier overnight for next week and then continued to add demand in the midday run. This pushes the Nov. 1-7 outlook toward the bullish side, according to the forecaster, as lows of teens to 30s were set to increase in coverage over the northern United States and down the Plains. “The pattern Nov. 8-11 still favors national demand easing to lighter levels,” NatGasWeather said. “However, as we’ve been mentioning, the theme going back to last week has been for seemingly bearish/mild days in the 12- to 15-day period to add demand as they roll into forecast days 6-11.” This could continue to occur as the upper pattern favors ways in which colder Canadian air can sneakily slide into the Midwest and interior Northeast for the Nov. 8-12 period. The forecaster also noted that there would be stronger cold shots into Europe in the coming couple of weeks, resulting in a drawdown of storage that already is precariously light ahead of winter. Rystad Energy noted that even with milder-than-normal temperatures over the past week, storage levels in Europe have started to decline. Analysts noted a 0.5% drop week/week in inventories. “An earlier start of withdrawals compared to previous years may limit downside to easing Title Transfer Facility prices,” Rystad senior analyst Wei Xiong said.

EIA Reports Ho-Hum 87 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Storage; Futures Still Sharply Lower -- The Energy Information Administration (EIA) delivered no surprises on Thursday, reporting an on-target 87 Bcf injection into storage inventories for the week ending Oct. 22. Natural gas futures were already sharply lower ahead of the EIA report on returning production and stronger wind generation. The November Nymex contract was down 30.0 cents to around $5.900/MMBtu just ahead of the report. As the print crossed trading desks, the prompt month slipped to around $5.870 and by 11 a.m. ET was at $5.846, off 35.2 cents from Wednesday’s close. Bespoke Weather Services said the 87 Bcf injection once again reflected loose supply/demand balances versus the five-year average. This is a common theme outside of a week earlier in a month that featured very low wind, according to the forecaster. [Plan Ahead: NGI’s Forward Look forward curves deliver affordable, robust natural gas futures pricing with curves going out 10 years at 70 locations. Learn more. ] Analysts appeared to have a good handle on the EIA figure. Ahead of the report, a Bloomberg survey showed injection estimates ranging from 77 Bcf to 94 Bcf, with a median injection of 88 Bcf. The same range was seen in a larger Reuters poll of 17 analysts, in which a median injection of 86 Bcf was produced. The same range of projections in a Wall Street Journal survey averaged at a 85 Bcf injection. NGI modeled a much larger 94 Bcf increase in stocks. For reference, EIA recorded a 32 Bcf increase last year and the five-year average is a 62 Bcf build. Broken down by region, the South Central led with a 36 Bcf increase in storage inventories, including a 21 Bcf build in salt facilities and a 15 Bcf addition to nonsalts, according to EIA. Midwest stocks rose by 25 Bcf, and East stocks increased by 23 Bcf. Pacific and Mountain inventories were up by the single digits. Total working gas in storage as of Oct. 22 was 3,548 Bcf, which is 403 Bcf below year-ago levels and 126 Bcf below the five-year average, EIA said. Looking ahead to next week’s EIA report, Bespoke said early indications pointed to a 65 Bcf injection, which also would be loose to the five-year average. “All of this simply means we will need more cold in order to sustain these price levels or move higher.”

Domestic, Global Factors Drag Natural Gas Futures Below $5.50; Cash Recedes Further -- Natural gas futures extended a dramatic sell-off at the close of the week as global gas prices continued to slide and a mid-November warm-up was forecast for the Lower 48 following a bout of early-month cold. With production rising further and storage improvements continuing, the December Nymex contract tumbled 35.6 cents to $5.426/MMBtu. January slid 34.2 cents to $5.529. Spot gas, which traded Friday for gas delivery on Monday, also faltered again. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 31.0 cents to $5.080. After Thursday’s 41.6-cent plunge at the front of the Nymex curve, futures’ early slide was a bit surprising. However, U.S. prices took their cue from Europe, where Dutch Title Transfer Facility prices stumbled for a second day on growing optimism that Russia would begin sending more gas to Europe in early November. The continued declines occurred in the face of an increasingly chillier outlook regarding the upcoming cold shot targeting the eastern United States. This is in response to a brief ridge spike up into northwest Canada, according to Bespoke Weather Services. However, as this feature collapses and Pacific flow returns, temperatures should moderate and evolve back warmer than normal, first in the middle of the nation, then spreading into the East. “We would not rule out some risk of another colder turn toward the end of the month, however, as the look of the pattern is one that suggests volatility may well be the rule, as opposed to warm or cold having the ability to ‘lock in,’ for now,” Bespoke said. The projected volatility in the November weather pattern could mean storage injections continue beyond the end of the traditional injection season. Some small builds are likely in the coming weeks as mild weather is set to bookend the early November blast of cold. The continued restocking ahead of winter would bode well for supplies that struggled to reach historical levels throughout the summer but gained considerable traction in the past two months. On Thursday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported another stout increase in inventories, this time a plump 87 Bcf for the week ending Oct. 22. The print was in line with estimates and well above the five-year average 62 Bcf injection for the period. Total Lower 48 working gas in underground storage ended the week at 3,548 Bcf, 3.4% below the five-year average of 3,674 Bcf, according to EIA. Wood Mackenzie said the latest EIA print implied 1.1 Bcf/d of looseness in the market when adjusting for degree days and normal seasonality. Wind generation came in slightly below normal for the week.

U.S. natgas falls over 6% on drop in European prices, rising output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 6% on Friday to a one-week low, pressured by rising U.S. output and sinking global gas prices after Russia said it would send more fuel to Europe, factors that offset support from rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for colder weather and soaring heating demand. Gas prices in Europe slid more than 11% for a second day in a row after Russian President Vladimir Putin this week told Kremlin-controlled energy giant Gazprom to start pumping gas into European storage once Russia finishes filling its own stocks, which may happen by Nov. 8. Since the summer, global gas prices have soared to record highs as utilities scrambled for LNG cargoes to refill low stockpiles in Europe and meet rising demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. U.S. futures also climbed, reaching a 12-year high in early October on a strong demand outlook for U.S. LNG exports. In Europe and Asia, gas was trading about four times higher than U.S. prices because the United States has more than enough gas in storage for winter and ample production to meet domestic and export demand. Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will top 3.6 tcf by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls shy of the five-year average of 3.7 tcf. U.S. stockpiles were currently about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. In Europe, analysts said stockpiles were about 15% below normal. After falling almost 7% on Thursday, gas futures fell 35.6 cents, or 6.2%, on Friday to settle at $5.426 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since Oct. 22. For the week, the contract was up about 3% after falling about 6% during the prior three weeks. For the month, the contract was down about 8% after rising about 90% during the prior six months. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 92.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to reach 93.9 bcfd on Friday, its highest since July, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 90.0 bcfd this week to 93.1 bcfd next week and 101.8 bcfd in two weeks as more homes and businesses crank up their heaters. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv projected on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 10.5 bcfd so far in October, up from 10.4 bcfd in September. On a daily basis, however, feedgas to LNG export plants was on track to reach 11.9 bcfd on Friday, its highest level since May, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv.

Gas utilities make fewer leak repairs in 2020 as monitoring technology improved - Leak repairs by large U.S. gas utilities dropped 6.6% in 2020 compared to 2019, as companies reaped the benefits of better technology and earlier pipeline repair and replacement. The number of repairs declined to 457,838, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis of federal data from natural gas utilities with at least 5,000 miles of distribution mains and service lines. It was the first year-over-year drop in the group's repair activity recorded in the available data since 2017. For instance, CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp., which repaired the most leaks in 2020 and operated the largest system in the group, saw repair activity decline from 58,087 leaks in 2019 to 56,392 leaks in 2020, a 2.9% reduction. The company said a significant contributor was likely its experience using Picarro Inc.'s vehicle-mounted leak detection technology. Because the method is more efficient and sensitive than traditional detection methods, CenterPoint identified more leaks during its initial cycle of surveys in recent years, CenterPoint Energy Inc. spokesperson Ross Corson said. As the company completes additional survey cycles, it expects to identify fewer leaks due to the burst of leak repair activity in the first cycle, Corson explained. The data appeared to bear that out. CenterPoint reported an 11.4% increase in leak repairs in 2019. It posted a 2.9% decline in repairs in 2020, the year it went through a second cycle of Picarro surveys. The data covers CenterPoint's footprint across Arkansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Texas. The company recently deployed Picarro technology in its Ohio and Indiana service territories, which it acquired in 2019. It was unclear to what extent COVID-19 lockdowns played a role in the decline in repair activity. Gas utilities have generally reported that system integrity work continued at pace in 2020, supported by the federal designation of utility employees as essential workers and industry efforts at the state and local level to ensure access to service territories.

Zurik: State hopes to have oil tank warning rule passed by end of the year - Eight months after an explosion of an oil tank in Southwest Louisiana killed a teenage girl, a state agency hopes to have a new rule in place soon that could prevent another child from being injured or killed. The proposed rule to add warning signage and fencing around the tanks was proposed following the February 28 death of Zalee Day Smith in Ragley, La. The rule changes, proposed by the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources’ Office of Conservation, would apply to tank batteries located within a city, close to a highway, home, school or church, like the one that killed Smith. The safety measures would include forcing companies to build a fence at least four feet high around the tank site with a lock attached. The rule also states hatches not used for pressure relief are to be sealed and warning signage to be placed next to the tank or ladder. The Office of Conservation held a public hearing and allowed letters to be submitted about the rule change. Three letters were received in support of the changes, no comments were submitted against the rules.

Texas adds 2,900 oil exploration and production jobs in September - Oil exploration and production companies in Texas added 2,900 jobs in September as the industry continues to recover from the pandemic-driven oil bust. Since employment reached a low a year ago, the state’s upstream sector has recovered 23,600 jobs, more than a third of the 60,000 jobs lost during the pandemic. The state has 181,100 drilling and extraction workers, about 18 percent fewer than the 220,300 before the pandemic began in January 2020, according to data from the Texas Workforce Commission and analyzed by the Texas Oil and Gas Association, an industry trade group. Texas’ oil and gas industry has added jobs for five consecutive months since April, and August upstream employment was 15 percent higher than the same period a year earlier, TXOGA said. “These jobs are not only among the highest paying jobs in Texas, these workers also play a direct role in our nation's energy security and our pursuit of a cleaner, stronger, better future," TXOGA President Todd Staples said. "We need policies that encourage continued domestic production to meet increased demand here and around the globe. More production means more jobs and more economic opportunities for Texans." Oil companies laid off tens of thousands of workers statewide last year after oil demand and prices plunged amid economic lockdowns and travel restrictions. Over the past 10 months, however, jobs have steadily returned to the oil patch amid growing crude demand as vaccines have helped businesses reopen and boosted travel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, was trading at $84.85 a barrel on Monday morning, up from $48 a barrel in January. Texas oil and gas companies posted 8,703 new job listings in September, according to the Texas Independent Producers & Royalty Owners Association. Houston had the most job listings: 3,070; followed by Midland with 477 and Odessa with 473. Some of the companies with the most job postings include Halliburton with 669, Baker Hughes with 601 and National Oilwell Varco with 590, according to the trade association. Job postings include maintenance and repair workers, tractor-trailer truck drivers and retail sales people. Oil executives and trade groups expect their industry will enjoy a multi-year boom as petroleum demand recovers from the pandemic and exceeds supplies after years of under-investment in new wells.

Matador Profits Soar On Higher Oil, Natural Gas Production, Prices Matador Resources Co. nearly doubled its third quarter earnings versus the same period last year, citing improved commodity prices and operational efficiency. The Dallas-based independent operates primarily in the Permian Basin’s Delaware sub-basin, which accounted for 93% of total production in 3Q2011. Matador also operates in the Eagle Ford and Haynesville/Cotton Valley shale plays.For the fourth quarter, Matador expects to complete nine new wells at its Greater Stebbins Area in Eddy County, NM, which should be turned to sales late in the period.At the Stateline asset, also in Eddy County, Matador plans to complete 11 wells that are part of a grouping dubbed the Voni wells. These should be turned to sales starting in mid-February 2022, Foran said. “Although we expect higher-than-usual production volumes to be shut in while we complete these new wells during the fourth quarter…this production should be deferred for only a short time, and these fourth quarter completion operations should set us up for a great start to 2022.”At Matador’s Rodney Robinson leasehold in Lea County, NM, Matador expects to drill nine wells by year-end.

Altus Midstream deal with private equity could signal more midstream targets | S&P Global Market Intelligence --The announcement of a planned merger between Altus Midstream Co. and a private equity-backed company marked the sort of deal-making that small oil and gas midstream companies might pursue as the giants of the sector feel investor pressure to return money to shareholders instead of buying companies and assets, according to industry experts.The all-stock deal between Altus and the parent company of EagleClaw Midstream, BCP Raptor Holdco LP, announced Oct. 21, would create the biggest natural gas processor in the Delaware Basin, with an estimated enterprise value of $9 billion.The development came at a time when midstream corporate M&A has been less active than consolidation among exploration and production companies. Midstream transactions in recent years have been insufficient to shrink the sector to the size that experts say it should be."We have just been hearing about it for years, and then we never get anything too big," Miller/Howard Investments Inc. portfolio manager John Cusick said in an interview. "But maybe this is a way for some of the smaller ones to build some scale by taking some [private equity] assets on. It could be an interesting way to get bigger."A widening split between small and large pipeline companies has not stimulated sectorwide consolidation. Meanwhile, obstacles to M&A for smaller midstream companies include a limited ability to issue equity and difficulty in buying other publicly traded companies, according to Cusick.The Altus deal is a type of transaction that has been used to help smaller midstream companies to stay afloat. Going public by merging with an existing company has been an option for private equity-backed midstream platforms in search of an exit, CBRE Clarion Securities portfolio manager Hinds Howard said in an email.

Lengthy lawsuit over land: City takes next steps in million-dollar dispute for Kaw Lake pipeline — The city could be on the hook to pay millions for one of the final pieces of the Kaw Lake water pipeline puzzle.By next summer, the city of Enid could go to a jury trial in order to settle an eminent domain dispute for the first time, officials said, rather than pay a Garfield County landowner $2.755 million recently awarded as just compensation for his property.The award would be the largest the city’s ever had to pay to acquire a condemned property under eminent domain.However, city officials disagree with the amount, which is almost entirely made up of costs from a lease terminated during the city’s lawsuit that court-appointed commissioners determined last June. “We don’t think that award’s correct,” City Manager Jerald Gilbert said Thursday, so the city intends to go to mediation with the property owner over the amount — if that attempt fails, then go to jury trial. In order to build a 50-foot stretch located around the middle of the planned 70-mile-long raw water pipeline, attorneys for the city have been attempting to invoke eminent domain to acquire a perpetual land easement and a temporary easement northeast of Garber. Landowner Robert Anderson, an Enid resident, had refused to grant the city right of way to his 120-acre property, so the city filed a petition to condemn the property in district court a year ago. In May 2019 — a month after Anderson entered his lease agreement — he was sent a letter by Gilbert offering him $4,782.55 for the easements, rounded up to $4,800. The city’s land services agent Steve Smith then contacted Anderson two months later with the easement request, again offering $120 per rod for 39.85 rods. Anderson’s son, former state Sen. Patrick Anderson, who has been representing him in court, said the city has repeatedly ignored his father’s requests to find an alternate path for the pipeline segment.“Instead, the city of Enid chose to be a bully and force its way across my father’s property through the process of eminent domain,” Anderson said. The city’s legal actions during the condemnation lawsuit resulted in an award amount much higher than original offers, according to both the Andersons and June’s final report from condemnation commissioners. Robert Anderson had initially been offered $4,800 for the parcel located on his 160 acres, but this amount ballooned to $2.755 million after a solar farm company already leasing Anderson’s property for future construction canceled its agreement, rather than also be sued in condemnation.Three phases of electrical lines cross the property, but no pipelines of gas or any other kind are located anywhere on Anderson’s acreage, which he has owned for 50 years.“He wants it to remain that way,” Patrick Anderson said. “It was uniquely situated and uniquely attracted to solar farm use.”

U.S. stockpiles in Cushing reaching historically worrying levels - Stockpiles at the biggest U.S. crude depot are quickly approaching critically low levels. The last time that happened, crude cost more than $100 a barrel. The storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, require a minimum level of oil to maintain normal operations, which traders generally believe is around 20 million barrels. Unusually for this time of year, stockpiles declined more than 4 million barrels over the past two weeks to 31 million and are expected to keep dropping rapidly due to the world’s insatiable demand for U.S. light sweet crude. It’s a stunning reversal from last year when the pandemic prompted a glut of oil so big that traders resorted to storing it in tankers at sea. The drawdown, driven by a rapid demand recovery, has been exacerbated by an energy crisis that has sent European and Asian buyers on the hunt for cheaper barrels. Over the coming weeks, stockpiles are likely to fall further to the operational low, traders at some of the biggest oil merchants in the world said, prompting the market to turn even more bullish. “Crude oil could justifiably trade to the next level higher on the storage drought at Cushing alone,” “Forget about fuel switching, whether OPEC+ adds additional barrels, or dollar weakness: if Cushing continues to slide, it could get ugly quickly.” The rapid depletion of Cushing signals just how tight global oil supplies are and threatens to drive prices even higher from their current levels. Surging oil prices are already driving costs up for road fuel, freight activity and air travel and stoking inflation just as many countries are only just recovering from the pandemic-driven economic slump. At the current rate of draws it could be just weeks away from Cushing being effectively out of crude, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Natasha Kaneva said in a report. Demand for Cushing oil surged because it was the cheapest in the world and stockpiles declined very quickly, according to a senior trader at one of the biggest U.S. crude exporters. Demand for U.S. barrels is higher than ever, the person added, noting that South Korea will have bought the most U.S. crude in their history in November. Asian buyers, including India and Taiwan, are still in the market to purchase U.S. crude cargoes loading in early November, according to traders, highlighting the rush to secure supplies. The global energy crisis has made the light, sweet, crude from Cushing more attractive on the global market because it has less sulfur than some other types of oil that must be processed through units at refineries called hydrocrackers. Hydrocrackers rely on hydrogen usually generated from natural gas — the cost of which has surged to record highs in parts of Europe and Asia recently. So far, there are no signs of a slowdown. Inventories at Cushing fell by a further 1.9 million barrels between Friday and Tuesday, traders said, citing data from Wood Mackenzie.

 Banks loosen purse strings for shale drillers amid oil rally --Banks are gradually offering more credit to U.S. shale oil and natural gas producers as the industry recovers from last year’s contraction and energy prices rally. So-called borrowing bases will increase as much as 20% during the imminent round of talks between drillers and lenders, according to most respondents in a survey conducted by law firm Haynes & Boone LLP. The findings indicate a continued improvement after the dire conditions experienced in the oil and gas sector last year, when the pandemic and global gluts led to a slump in energy prices and prompted banks to cut back on lending. The previous Haynes & Boone survey, published in April, indicated borrowing bases would remain flat or rise 10%. Lending against crude and gas reserves, a key source of capital for explorers, typically sees semi-annual retederminations, in which bankers reassess their commitments. To take one recent example, HighPeak Energy Inc., a Texas producer, disclosed Monday in a filing that its borrowing based was raised to $195 million from $125 million. Almost two-thirds of respondents in the Haynes & Boone survey also said they expect public equity markets to reopen for E&P companies next year, after being largely shut to them since 2018.

Berkshire Hathaway Gas Pipeline Was Behind Massive Methane Plume in U.S. - - A pipeline operator owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Energy spewed a powerful plume of greenhouse gas in Oklahoma last week with the same heat-trapping ability as the annual emissions from thousands of cars. Northern Natural Gas estimates it released about 21.8 million cubic feet of natural gas over approximately three hours while fixing a leak in its pipeline that stretches across the U.S. The discharge was one of the worst emission releases seen in the country this year, and had the same short-term climate-warming impact as the annual emissions from more than 7,700 U.S. vehicles. “In performing Northern Natural Gas’ integrity management program to ensure safe and reliable pipeline operations, a very small leak was discovered on a pipeline and was repaired Oct. 22,” company representative Mike Loeffler said in an email after Bloomberg inquired about it. “To enable the minor repair, a small amount of natural gas was released from a section of Northern Natural Gas’ pipeline facilities near the Kansas-Oklahoma border.” Methane, which is the primary component of natural gas, has more than 80 times the warming impact of carbon dioxide over the short term and halting intentional releases and accidental leaks of the gas could do more to slow climate change than almost any other single measure. About 75% of methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry can be cut by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency.

Protest exposes Line 5 security risk - The Mining Gazette --The protest at a Line 5 pumping station in Michigan’s Thumb appears to have been frivolous — a dozen or so young activists mostly hanging out in a parking lot listening to music — but it exposes serious security risks for the petroleum pipeline. A group calling itself “Up Hell’s Creek Camp” descended on the pumping station and were left alone there for more than an hour by both the operator, Enbridge Inc., and local authorities in Tuscola County. One of the group shimmied under a locked, chain-link gate with a pipe wrench, which he applied to a fixture that may or may not have been a shut-off valve — Enbridge isn’t saying — while the rest of the bunch, mostly teens and young adults, watched from the lot. One of them played an electric guitar and sang. When they arrived, they alerted both Enbridge and the Tuscola County sheriff of their intentions and began a social media live-stream. Sheriff deputies were initially uncertain where to find the site, while Enbridge temporarily shut down the pipeline and says all appropriate steps were taken to secure the line. The pipeline has an automatic shut-down system in case of tampering. By the time the Tuscola officers arrived, the protesters were gone. A few apparently were stopped in their vehicles and questioned, but there’s no indication anyone was arrested or charged. The sheriff’s department has not returned phone calls from The Detroit News.It’s not what actually happened Wednesday, but what might have happened that is worrisome. Line 5 carries 540,000 barrels of petroleum products a day from Canada through Michigan.And yet this pumping station was so loosely secured that it was breached by an unsophisticated band of kids.Imagine the damage that could have been done by a more malicious group intent on disrupting the pipeline’s flow, or even destroying it.Enbridge is embroiled in a legal fight with the Whitmer administration over the section of Line 5 that runs beneath the Straits of Mackinac. The governor wants to shut it down; Enbridge wants to encase it in a concrete tunnel deep below the lakebed.The dispute moved to the U.S. State Department after Canada filed a treaty complaint.Enbridge doesn’t help its case by being so careless with security. It should know Line 5 is a target, and should have better safeguards in place at all of the facilities along the pipeline.It certainly should respond with more urgency when a threat is telegraphed in advance, as was the case Tuesday.Likewise, law enforcement in communities that host Line 5 infrastructure should have emergency response plans in place to deal with threats. Given the animosity toward Line 5, anything can happen at any time. The Woodstock nature of Tuesday’s protest may be amusing. But next time, the pipeline attackers might not be so mellow.

FBI joins investigation into Line 5 tampering that led to shutdown - Authorities confirmed Friday the FBI joined an investigation into a Line 5 tampering incident involving protestors in Tuscola County that shut down the controversial pipeline Tuesday. Federal investigators will assist the local sheriff’s team to track down participants in the livestreamed trespassing incident. No arrests have yet been made in the probe. “Detectives are investigating and attempting to locate those who were involved. Basically, nobody was at the scene when officers arrived,” said Undersheriff Robert Baxter from Tuscola County.Environmental activist group Up Hell’s Creek on Tuesday staged a protest at a valve site along the Line 5 pipeline route near Vassar, where an unidentified and masked person crawled under a security fence and used a pipe wrench to crank closed a safety valve. The group called both 911 and Enbridge before trying to shut down the pipeline. Enbridge officials said they shut down the petrochemical pipeline because of the “reckless and dangerous” interference and for the safety of the public, first responders and the protestors themselves.The undersheriff said there is no continued safety risk to the community and there was no release from the pipeline.Special Agent Mara R. Schneider of the FBI’s Detroit Division confirmed the agency will assist in the investigation at the request of the sheriff’s office.“The FBI routinely offers assistance to our law enforcement partners, to provide additional manpower and specialized resources, if they become necessary,” she said.. Lillian Ellis, 28, of Highland Park, a nonbinary transgender person who goes by peatmoss, took part in the Tuesday demonstration and said the protestors would prefer FBI investigators spend their time and resources looking into cases of missing and murdered Indigenous women and children tied to pipelines in other states. “I’m not surprised. The role of the FBI is often to protect capital and capital interests,” peatmoss said, even when those assets are owned by Canadian companies like Enbridge.The protestors said they tried to interrupt the pipeline in solidarity with Indigenous communities that have for years called for the infrastructure to be shut down. Those calls were spurred by fossil fuels impacts on the climate crisis and a four-mile underwater segment that sits on the Great Lakes bottomlands through the Straits of Mackinac. Longtime Line 5 opponents and tribal leaders this week said they could not condone the protestors’ activity and believed Line 5 would be shut down through legal channels. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer last year ordered Enbridge to shut down the flow through the underwater section of the pipeline by May 12 and Attorney General Dana Nessel sued to enforce the order. Enbridge has refused to comply while the matter works through the courts. Whitmer spokesman Bobby Leddy said it would not be appropriate for the governor to comment on the active investigation. Enbridge intends to build a tunnel through the bedrock beneath the straits to replace the underwater segment of the more than 600-mile-long pipeline that transports crude and liquid natural gas from Wisconsin through both of Michigan’s peninsulas and ending in Sarnia, Ontario. The tunnel plan remains under state consideration.

 Crestwood Expanding in Williston, Permian with $1.8B Oasis Midstream Takeover -Crestwood Equity Partners LP said Tuesday it has agreed to pay $1.8 billion in equity and cash, including debt, for Oasis Midstream Partners LP, expanding its foothold in two of the Lower 48’s prized oil basins. The deal expands Crestwood’s midstream footprint in the Williston Basin and the Permian Basin’s Delaware sub-basin. The firms said the combination would bring together “significant” crude oil, produced water, and natural gas gathering and processing asset. The announcement coincided with the reporting of Crestwood’s third quarter earnings results. During a conference call to discuss results, Crestwood general partner CEO Robert Phillips said the acquisition would position the Houston company “as a top three midstream company” in the Williston’s Bakken Shale. He noted that natural gas capture rates are improving in the Bakken, “which bodes well for increased gathering and processing volumes in the future…” The transaction, slated to close in early 2022, would largely be equity-financed, with about 33.8 million newly issued Crestwood common units and $160 million cash. Phillips said the deal “enhances our competitive position in the Williston and Delaware basins…and substantially expands the long-term contract acreage and inventory dedications of our gathering and processing portfolio. “Importantly, we are completing this transaction during a period when macro oil and gas fundamentals are exceptionally supportive of upstream development and there is increasing demand for midstream infrastructure and services.” CFO Robert Halpin concurred. He told analysts “the outlook for 2022 in light of the commodity price environment is very favorable. We continue to see uptick in rigs across every basin in which we operate to varying degrees… “We continue to see increases in completion activity expectations from our producers” in the Bakken, Powder River Basin (PRB) and in the Delaware, “and we think all of that is going to add to the outlook for ‘22 and beyond going forward.” Crestwood and Oasis are both master limited partnerships. Oasis Midstream was formed by sponsor Oasis Petroleum Inc., a Houston-based independent exploration and production company that operates primarily in the Williston’s Bakken Shale. “The combination of Crestwood and Oasis Midstream creates a midstream leader well positioned with size, scale and a diversified customer base,”

 Landowners say shortcomings apparent in North Dakota's abandoned oil well plugging program – A landowners group says cleanup of some abandoned oil wells the state sought to plug using federal coronavirus relief money is incomplete, and costs at times far exceeded what's considered typical. The Northwest Landowners Association released a report on the abandoned well plugging program Tuesday after sifting through numerous publicly available documents and other records obtained from the state. “While well-intentioned, this program mostly leaves the landowner and North Dakota taxpayers holding the bag,” Chairman Troy Coons said.The North Dakota Oil and Gas Division set out last year to plug hundreds of abandoned wells and reclaim the sites, aiming to put them back into agricultural use and employ hundreds, if not thousands, of oil workers. Numerous workers in the oil patch lost jobs last year or had their hours cut after the coronavirus pandemic hit and sent oil prices plummeting.State leaders designated $66 million in federal CARES Act funding for plugging abandoned wells, $16 million of which appeared unlikely to be spent by the deadline so was ultimately redirected to reimburse companies for the cost of acquiring water used in the fracking process. Officials authorized another $6 million to finish cleanup work this year. Those efforts are ongoing.

350 gallons of oil spill into Milwaukie creek — A cleanup effort is underway after an oil spill dumped gallons of oil into Kellogg Creek and Kellogg Lake in Milwaukie. The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) and Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) are working to contain the spill and rescue any impacted wildlife. An oil containment boom — a temporary floating barrier — and absorbents have been deployed on the lake and river to contain and capture the oil. One duck was rescued covered in oil; another duck that was rescued died. Ray Hoy, the acting state-on-scene coordinator for the Oregon DEQ, said officials have seen at least a half dozen other wildlife that had been oiled. . "When they do see them, they try to contain and collect them. However, birds fly and move about pretty quickly, so they're difficult to catch." The spill was first reported on October 13, a day after a fire broke out in the rear of D&C Motor Company's service shop on Southeast McLoughlin Boulevard. Security camera footage the motor company shared with KGW shows a man wearing a gray hooded sweatshirt walking in and out of the shed that contains the oil drum. In the video, the man is seen walking out with a tray that is smoking, but it's unclear what is on that tray. Moments later, he brings the tray back into the shed and the shed starts to release heavy smoke. Fire investigators said they can't call the fire arson because they don't see the man physically light the fire, but lose control of it. The Clackamas County Sheriff's Office is investigating it as reckless burning. The fire damaged five cars and ruptured the oil drum. A spokesperson for D&C Motor Company said that the oil drum could hold 350 gallons, but said the drum wasn't completely full. They're not sure how much oil spilled into the creek. Clackamas Fire said a good portion of it burnt in the fire or was contained to the parking lot. The remaining oil washed down into a storm drain, then into a catch basin, eventually making its way to Kellogg Creek.

OC oil spill opens window on systemic failures — Amplify Energy’s 3-1/2 hour delay in shutting down its pipeline after a low pressure alarm was just the first indication of systemic failures contributing to California’s most recent offshore oil spill. Signs of the spill were reported to the Coast Guard even earlier, as numerous residents either smelled the odor, or saw an oil slick as early as 6:30 p.m. on Oct. 1. But Amplify’s operational failure was enabled by governmental failure at every level, from local to national, as quickly became evident. On Oct. 6, Capital and Main reported that the City of Long Beach had signed a 20-year lease with Amplify on a pumping station in June 2020 “that could extend the pipeline’s life through 2040,” when it would be more than 60 years old — about double the initial expected lifetime, according to Kristen Monsell, oceans legal director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “A lot of platforms and pipelines when they were constructed in the ’60s, ’70s and ’80s, the oil companies said their expected lifespans is 30 years, and were already well past that for most of these new platforms and pipelines,” Monsell told Random Lengths News. “It’s high time to shut it all down, and start decommissioning it all.” In fact, the 1985 environmental impact report for the Plains All American Pipeline that ruptured in 2015 “determined that the risk of a spill more than doubles as the pipeline aged from 20 to 40 years,” Monsel wrote on Oct. 8, when CBD filed a notice of intent to sue the Joe Biden administration if it fails to “reexamine the offshore oil industry’s threat to California’s endangered species and their habitats,” in light of the oil spill as well as well new information not previously considered, as called for in the Endangered Species Act. This was but one of a series of actions CBD has been involved in trying to hold the Biden administration to his campaign promises of vigorous action to combat catastrophic climate change. The Biden administration’s inconsistent actions reflect a deeper pattern of systemic failures, primarily with respect to flawed environmental analyses under the Donald Trump administration, and the Biden administration’s failure to re-examine them. Two leading examples are the Willow Master Development Plan in the Western Arctic, which would have resulted in up to 250 wells producing an estimated 590 million barrels of oil over 30 years, and Lease Sale 257, the largest off-shore lease sale in history, covering 80 million acres of the Gulf of Mexico, projected to produce up to 1.1 billion barrels of oil and 4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas over the next 50 years. Both were approved under Trump, using a modeling approach that ludicrously concluded that not drilling for massive quantities of oil would result in more greenhouse gases. After a court rejected this approach in the Arctic case in mid-August, the Biden administration announced it would reexamine the Trump plan. But it has since scheduled Lease Sale 257 for Nov. 17, despite being sued to stop by CBD and others.

Democrats hope to hold Big Oil 'accountable' - Democrats are gearing up for what could be a showdown with Big Oil during a congressional hearing Thursday. Executives from Exxon Mobil, BP, Chevron and Shell, as well as two major industry groups, will testify before the House Oversight and Reform Committee in a hearing on what Democrats have dubbed a “disinformation campaign” to prevent climate action. It comes after a long-term effort from lawmakers to get major energy firms to testify on Capitol Hill in recent months. Expected to testify are Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods, BP America Chairman David Lawler, Chevron CEO Michael Wirth, Shell Oil Company President Gretchen Watkins, American Petroleum Institute (API) President Mike Sommers and Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne Clark. Committee Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) told The Hill in a Wednesday interview that she’s hoping to get “accountability” from the witnesses. “It was only when climate change became undeniable that the fossil fuel industry began an organized, concerted, billion-dollar campaign to greenwash their role in the crisis,” Maloney said. “We intend to hold them accountable and hope that they’ll be part of the solution, instead of part of the problem,” she added. The chairwoman also described a continuing investigation, saying the event would be “the first of several hearings that we’re planning.” The hearing comes amid some tension between the witnesses and the committee, as the hearing’s advisory said that the witnesses “failed to adequately comply” with requests for documents. Maloney elaborated on the accusation Wednesday, telling The Hill that “a lot of the documents that they gave us are already out there available to the public.” “We asked specifically for internal communications of key executives, including CEOs, which we have not received, and we also asked specific questions about how much money they’re paying to front groups and the PR firms they hired to peddle ... misinformation.” The witnesses have said they are providing documents to the committee, although they did not provide specifics when presented with Maloney’s comments. A spokesperson for Exxon said it has “been in communication with committee staff for months and have cooperated with the request for documents.” A spokesperson for Shell said the company “delivered to the Committee thousands of pages of documents that speak directly to Shell’s position on climate change over several decades, our strong support for the Paris Agreement, and our efforts to be an industry leader in the transition to a lower-carbon future.” Representatives for both BP and the API sounded similar notes, stating that they were working with the committee and have provided “thousands” of pages of documents. Lawmakers, including Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), the leader of the panel’s Environment Subcommittee, have repeatedly invoked a 1994 hearing with tobacco executives, after which executives were probed for potentially lying. “For the first time in history, the industry will have to answer to Congress and the American public for lying about the realities of the climate crisis and the environmental damage caused by their products,” Khanna told The Hill in a statement Tuesday. “Finally, Big Oil will have to tell the truth about their continued practices of deception through third party organizations and shadow groups,” he added. “It’s my hope that our committee’s hearing will set up the fossil fuel industry’s Big Tobacco moment.”

Lawmakers study Big Tobacco perjury before Big Oil showdown - In April 1994, seven top tobacco CEOs testified to Congress that they didn’t believe nicotine was addictive. Two years later, they were all under federal investigation for potentially lying under oath and no longer leading their embattled cigarette companies. Democrats believe the oil industry and trade association leaders appearing tomorrow at a high-profile hearing on climate change disinformation could meet a similar fate. “The evidence is so incontrovertible that they’re going to really have a strong choice,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), whose Oversight subcommittee is hosting the event. “Do they risk coming close to the line, to committing perjury, and go the way of the tobacco executives? Or do they do a full mea culpa and admit all of the wrongdoing and commit to change?” But the political landscape today could make it harder for Khanna and Oversight and Reform Committee Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) to have the same swift impact as their counterparts did nearly three decades ago, according to congressional experts. Maloney and Khanna, whose perjury warning came during a call this week with the political action group Our Revolution, will face challenges from the unusual nature of the event. While they plan to preside over the hearing from behind the imposing dais of the hearing room, no witnesses will be seated at the table below them. Because of remote hearing rules instituted at the beginning of the pandemic, the heads of Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., BP America Inc., Shell Oil Co., the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce will all testify remotely. That’s despite the fact that API and the Chamber are both based in Washington (E&E Daily, Oct. 25). Democrats had initially asked the officials to appear in person. But Republicans on the committee objected, accusingthe majority of treating the executives differently than other recent witnesses “simply because Democrats do not like them or want a photo opportunity.”

'This hearing is the start': Fossil fuel execs to testify - Four top oil executives will appear before the House Oversight Committee this week in a landmark moment for environmental activists who have spent years calling for investigations of the industry.The witnesses, who are appearing voluntarily at the hearing Thursday and offering virtual testimony, are some of the biggest names in the industry. Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Darren Woods, BP America Inc. CEO David Lawler, Chevron Corp. CEO Michael Wirth and Shell Oil Co. President Gretchen Watkins will testify alongside American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers and U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne Clark.“What we hope to get out of it is to stop the funding through third-party groups of climate disinformation,” said Environment Subcommittee Chair Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who is leading the inquiry with full committee Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.).The committee said in a news release that the companies have not fully complied with the request for documents and communications that lawmakers sent last month (Greenwire, Sept. 16). But Khanna said the panel has been “inundated with experts, researchers, third-party groups ever since we announced the hearing.”“The documents we’re going to continue to pursue,” Khanna said in an interview Friday. “But there is so much evidence that is of concern that they would be very hard-pressed to be evasive.”The hearing marks a major moment in an investigation Khanna has been pursuing for months, in hopes of going after Big Oil the same way Congress targeted the tobacco industry in the 1990s.Public attention was raised this summer when Greenpeace U.K. released a video showing Exxon lobbyist Keith McCoy discussing the company’s influence strategy with an activist he believed to be a headhunter from a Middle East energy fund (E&E Daily, July 1).McCoy has since parted ways with the company, but the sting video reverberated (Energywire, Sept. 28). The Oversight panel has sought closed-door testimony from the former Exxon lobbyist, and the incident got the company suspended from the Climate Leadership Council, a group that advocates carbon pricing with support from major businesses.Notably, McCoy said in the video that Exxon supports a carbon tax as a "talking point" but does not really believe Congress would ever enact the policy. He also said Exxon funded "shadow groups" to cast doubt on climate science.Khanna acknowledged that the committee is still pursuing an interview with McCoy, but he stressed that the hearing is only the beginning of his inquiry. “The important thing to realize is that this hearing is the start of the investigation, not the end, not the culmination, just like the tobacco hearings,” Khanna said.

Oil Executives Grilled Over Industry’s Role in Climate Disinformation - At a heated hearing on Thursday, Democrats had some big questions for the chief executives of Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP and Shell: Would they pledge to stop lobbying against efforts to reduce emissions? And were they willing to tell their powerful trade groups to stop working against electric vehicles? None of the executives agreed. Instead, the leaders of the four major oil and gas companies touted their support for a transition to clean energy and said they had never engaged in campaigns to mislead the public on the role of fossil fuel emissions in global warming. All four acknowledged that the burning of their products was driving climate change, but also told lawmakers that fossil fuels are not about to disappear. “Oil and gas will continue to be necessary for the foreseeable future,” said Darren Woods, C.E.O. of Exxon Mobil. “We currently do not have the adequate alternative energy sources.” Democrats responded with forceful language in the more than six-hour hearing. “Some of us actually have to live the future that you all are setting on fire for us,” Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York told the executives. Democrats had hoped to recapture the drama of the tobacco hearings of the 1990s, where lawmakers put the C.E.O.s of cigarette companies on the hot seat and each executive told the country that smoking was not addictive. There was shouting, shaming, and one demonstration involving a jar of M&Ms to make the point that the companies were investing relatively little in renewables, about 1 percent of their total capital expenditure, according to the International Energy Agency. But the executives — Mr. Woods of Exxon Mobil, Gretchen Watkins of Shell, Michael K. Wirth of Chevron and David Lawler of BP — seemed to have learned from the tobacco hearings as well, sticking to their scripts, emphasizing their concerns over global warming and citing their internal targets for cutting emissions. The four executives, as well as Suzanne Clark from the United States Chamber of Commerce and Mike Sommers from the industry group American Petroleum Institute, appeared on video screens, not in person, out of concerns over the pandemic. Republicans on the House Committee on Oversight and Reform questioned the premise of the hearings, calling it a distraction from more important problems facing the nation and said the oil executives should be thanked for decades of keeping homes warm and lights blazing. “I’ll tell you what’s frustrating, is a member of Congress telling American oil and gas companies to reduce production,” said Representative Jim Jordan, Republican of Ohio, adding that he felt those companies should instead be commended for increasing production. “God bless Chevron,” he said. The hearing marked the first time oil executives were pressed publicly to answer questions, under oath, about whether their companies misled the public about the reality of climate change by obscuring the scientific consensus: that the burning of fossil fuels is raising Earth’s temperature and sea levels with devastating consequences worldwide, including intensifying storms, worsening drought and deadlier wildfires. It came as President Biden urged lawmakers to vote to approve a $1.85 trillion climate and social policy package. On Monday Mr. Biden will speak to world leaders at a United Nations summit in Glasgow to make the case that the United States is cutting emissions, and to urge other nations to do more.

Oil companies downplay early climate knowledge under fire from Dems - Leaders of the U.S. oil industry refused to concede that their companies had ever misled the public about the link between burning fossil fuels and global warming during a tense House hearing on Thursday. The hearing before the House Oversight and Reform Committee was billed as “Fueling the Climate Crisis: Exposing Big Oil’s Disinformation Campaign to Prevent Climate Action,” and Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) set the tone early. "I want each of you to affirm that your organization will no longer spend any money either directly or indirectly to oppose efforts to reduce emissions and address climate change," she said. The executives did not directly say they would do so, and Maloney accused one of them of filibustering. She soon moved on after declaring none of them were willing to take her “pledge.” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), chair of the House Oversight Committee’s environmental subcommittee, repeatedly pressed Exxon CEO Darren Woods on statements by then-CEO Lee Raymond in 2002, in which he denied a link between fossil fuel combustion and climate change. These comments, Khanna noted, came decades after 1978 internal reports from Exxon scientists warning of such a link. While Woods acknowledged the connection between burning fossil fuels and warmer temperatures, he maintained Raymond’s comments had been consistent with then-current science despite the internal research. Meanwhile, he also claimed that the company didn't have any "unique" understanding of climate science. "I am not aware of any unique understanding that we had on the science. We engaged with the broader community and worked with them to advance our own understanding and as time passed and scientific understanding evolved, so did our position," he said. Numerous ongoing lawsuits and news reports have alleged that the companies knew about climate change for decades, but took a contrary position in public. BP America Chairman David Lawler stated that his company was aware as early as the 1980s of reports of climate change, but said there was "debate." “There was a lot of science, there was a lot of debate that was published during that time period, but I would say that BP focused on the landmark IPCC study in 1996,” Lawler said, referring to the United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The BP and Exxon executives testified alongside top brass from Shell, Chevron and key lobbying groups the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Chamber of Commerce. Maloney announced at the end of the hearing that she would be issuing subpoenas to the oil interests, which she said failed to provide requested financial documents and internal communications. “I do not take this step lightly,” she said. “We need to get to the bottom of the oil industry’s disinformation campaign, and with these subpoenas, we will.” The Small Businesses Behind Every F-35

After historic hearing, panel to issue subpoenas to oil companies - House Oversight and Reform Chair Carolyn Maloney said yesterday that she intends to subpoena four major oil companies and two trade organizations for documents and communications as part of her committee’s investigation into climate misinformation. The subpoenas, expected to be formally issued in the coming days, would be a major step, extending the reach of a congressional probe of the fossil fuel industry that could last well into next year. “I see no choice but to continue our committee’s investigation until we see the truth,” Maloney (D-N.Y.) said at the end of a high-profile hearing with Big Oil executives and trade groups. Democrats had requested a massive trove of internal documents from Exxon Mobil Corp., BP America Inc., Shell Oil Co., Chevron Corp., the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, whose top executives appeared before the committee virtually and offered hours of testimony yesterday. The committee initially requested documents by Sept. 30 (Greenwire, Sept. 16). When the companies did not fully comply, Maloney said, they were warned that the panel would take further action if they did not produce sufficient paper ahead of yesterday’s hearing. “Unfortunately, none of the six entities can produce the substantial portion of the key documents the committee requested,” Maloney said. “Instead, they produced reams of other documents, many of which were publicly available.” The companies, Maloney said, offered up thousands of pages — but not the kind of behind-closed-doors information about climate science and misinformation funding that Democrats had been looking for. “One entity sent in 1,500 pages printed from their own website, available publicly, along with 4,000 pages of newsletters filled with industry press releases,” Maloney said. “Others sent us thousands of pages of publicly available annual reports and the companies’ postings on Facebook and LinkedIn.”

How decades of disinformation about fossil fuels halted U.S. climate policy -- In April, President Biden unveiled the United States' most ambitious plan ever to cut emissions that drive climate change, and he urged other nations to follow. Now, days before Biden prepares for a pivotal climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, the White House's keystone legislative plan to tackle climate disruption appears to be dead, sunk by West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin.It's the most recent in a string of defeats to aggressive climate action that stretches back more than 25 years.The U.S. has contributed more heat-trapping pollution than any country over time and has been the prime driver of global climate change. The national debate about how to address the problem has raged for decades, but progress toward a solution has been slow. Whenever presidents or Congress have introduced measures to slash emissions to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change, they've been repeatedly derailed.In 1997, the Senate unanimously adopted a resolution opposing the first international treaty to cut greenhouse gases. A sweeping 2009 bill to reduce emissions never came to a vote in the Senate because it did not have enough support and was doomed to fail. In2017, President Donald Trump announced the U.S. would withdraw from the 2015 Paris climate accord, the only country to reject the agreement.The same headwinds have stopped nearly every effort, including Biden's, to make systemic cuts to emissions: a powerful fossil fuel lobby that has spent vast sums of money to influence lawmakers while simultaneously sowing public doubt about the science of climate change.On Thursday, House Democrats will look into what they describe as the oil industry's decades of disinformationand misrepresentation to delay climate action. They have called executives from Exxon Mobil, BP America, Chevron Corp. and Shell Oil to testify. The meeting, Democrats say, is modeled on a historic hearing more than 25 years ago that held the tobacco industry to account for misleading the public about the harmful effects of smoking.Two names likely to come up at the hearing are Charles and David Koch, the conservative petrochemical magnates. They have poured millions of dollars into efforts to discredit the science of climate change. The brothers have given over $145 million to climate-change-denying think tanks and advocacy groups between 1997 and 2018. The Kochs were joined in their efforts by Exxon, which has given nearly $37 million over the same time to spread climate misinformation. A senior Exxon lobbyist in Washington was caught on tape in June describing the company's campaign to cloud the science. "Did we aggressively fight against some of the science? Yes," said Keith McCoy in a sting operation by Greenpeace U.K. "Did we hide our science? Absolutely not. Did we join some of these 'shadow groups' to work against some of the early efforts? Yes, that's true. But there's nothing illegal about that. You know, we were looking out for our investments. We were looking out for our shareholders."

The U.S. oil supply is still out of balance -Robert Rapier -You may find it curious that the price of oil is still above $80 a barrel. This is also why gasoline prices are at the highest levels since 2014. But, there is a good explanation for it. In January 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic began to sweep across the U.S., domestic oil production was 12.8 million barrels per day (BPD). Production remained at that level for a couple of months despite the double-whammy of a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and growing demand destruction as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the situation was untenable. The price of oil eventually fell to zero and then kept going. That forced some producers into bankruptcy, resulting in the largest short-term oil production drop in U.S. history. Production declined all the way to 9.7 million BPD in May 2020 (which was the month after oil prices went negative), but has since bounced back to 11.3 million BPD. Meanwhile, U.S. oil demand has jumped back above 21.8 million BPD, which is where it was prior to the Covid-induced plunge. This loss of supply and recovery of demand is the biggest reason we have $80/bbl oil today when it was only $60/bbl just before the pandemic. The loss of supply has caused the U.S. to lose its briefly-held status as a net exporter of petroleum and petroleum products. That number had trended down from a high of 13 million BPD of imports in 2005 all the way to over a million BPD of exports in 2020. Now we have returned to net importer status, most recently importing a net average of 1.3 million BPD over the past four weeks. But there are some signs that help may be on the way. In January 2020 there were nearly 700 rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. By the summer of 2020, that number had fallen below 200. The rig count has steadily recovered over the past year to reach 445 — the highest level since the pandemic started. The downside is that it can take months at a minimum for new drilling activity to turn into oil production. So don’t rush out and buy that gas guzzler just yet.

A Cold Winter Could Double Natural Gas Prices And Send Oil To $100 - Crude oil could hit $100 per barrel if the winter turns out cold, one analyst has warned, adding that natural gas prices could double from current levels. BMO Capital Markets oil and gas research managing director Randy Ollenberg told Bloomberg that "We're in a really weather-sensitive situation here where we could see natural gas prices really, even, double from here if we get some really cold weather and we could see crude oil prices break through US$100.""There could be some pretty significant increases in pricing here if we do get some really cold weather early – so, in December," Ollenberg said. "We're talking about cold weather in Europe and Asia, that's really where it's critical."However, if the weather turns out to be mild during the winter, prices will correct during the first quarter of next year, the analyst also said.Ollenberg is not alone in this bullish outlook. In a separate interview with Bloomberg, Ira Epstein from asset manager Linn and Associates said he expectedWest Texas Intermediate to hit $90 by the end of the year on strong demand for oil coupled with not enough new supply.The sentiment was echoed by Goldman Sachs, too. The investment bank, which earlier this month revised up its price forecast for Brent to $90 per barrel by year-end, now says it could top $90 per barrel. The bank cited utilities' switch from gas to oil as a factor for this revision as it could potentially add 1 million bpd to global demand for oil."While not our base-case, such persistence would pose upside risk to our $90/bbl year-end Brent price forecast," Goldman analysts said, adding there was further space for oil to grow, too. "We would need prices to rise to $110 /bbl to stifle demand enough to balance the market deficit we currently see in 1Q22 given our expectation that OPEC+ continues on the current path of +0.4 mb/d per month increases in quotas."

Energy cannibalism is happening so fast that the collapse of the oil industry will derail renewables - French scientists warn that the oil industry is collapsing so fast it will derail renewables, Nafeez Ahmed wrote in Byline Times. In just 13 years, a team of French government energy scientists found that global oil production could enter "a terminal and exponential decline, accompanied by the overall collapse of the global oil and gas industries over the next three decades.' This collapse could derail any effort to transition in time for green energy to fill the gap, leaving a world of nearly 8 billion people in some form of economic collapse that will be impossible to escape.It's not that the earth doesn't have plenty of fossil fuels locked below the surface to exploit. But, the oil industry has to use more and more energy to extract additional sources of oil and gas. The low-hanging fruit of easily accessible oil exploitation is long gone with the exception of Arabia. The industry is finding extraction more brutal to remove energy from oil reserves miles below the ocean surface, exploiting the world's carbon sinks such as the Amazon and the Congo, and the risky extraction from thawing permafrost and drilling in the Arctic ocean. “The oil industry is increasingly eating itself to stay alive. The oil and gas industries are consuming more and more energy exponentially to keep extracting oil and gas. That's why they've entered a downwards spiral of increasing production costs, 'diminishing profits, rising debt, and irreversible economic decline.”The transition to green energy requires massive amounts of carbon to build the infrastructure and for the installation of the technology. If the oil industry collapses, it will jeopardize the transition. The key to understanding all this is in how the new study, published in Elsevier’s Applied Energy journal, applies the concept of ‘Energy Return On Investment’ (EROI).Pioneered by systems ecologist Professor Charles Hall (whom I worked with on my book Failing States, Collapsing Systems) EROI measures how much energy you must use to extract energy for a given resource or technology. The metric works as a simple ratio that estimates the quantity of energy you can get out for every single unit of energy that’s put in. So obviously, the higher the ratio the better, because it means you can get more bang for your buck.Their research found that 15.5% – more than a tenth – of the energy produced from oil worldwide is already necessary to keep producing all the oil.Yet this is getting worse, not better. Since the production of the easiest-to-get conventional oil slowed down and plateaued around fifteen years ago, we’re increasingly relying on forms of difficult-to-extract unconventional oil that uses greater amounts of energy for more complex techniques like fracking.By 2024 – within the next four years – the amount of energy we are using for global oil production is going to increase to 25% of energy production. In other words, the world will be using a quarter of the energy produced from oil just to keep producing that oil.But instead of getting more efficient, fossil fuel technologies are getting less efficient – which is why the quantity of energy we need to keep producing oil is exponentially increasing.By 2050, fully half of the energy extracted from global oil reserves will need to be put back into new extraction to keep producing oil. The authors have an interesting name for this self-defeating phenomenon: they call it, “energy cannibalism.”

Canadian oil producers eye new pipeline route to Gulf Coast as Marathon reverses Capline conduit - Canadian oil producers may soon enjoy higher prices for the crude they sell into the U.S. as a major south-to-north pipeline is in the final stages of a reversal — an under-appreciated event that could lift the prospects of the domestic oil industry. Ohio-based Marathon Pipelines LLC filed tariffs for transportation of crude oil on its Capline pipeline from Patoka, Ill. to St. James, Louisiana for rates effective Oct. 25, according to RBN Energy, an energy markets consultancy. Capline was the largest south-to-north flowing pipeline in the United States with a capacity of 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, but owner Marathon Petroleum has been working to reverse the flow since 2017, which would allow both heavy and light oil to flow from a storage hub in the U.S. Midwest to a major refining centre on the Gulf Coast. The company website notes that the reversal will be completed this year. “They’re doing line fill right now,” analyst Randy Ollenberger said of the Capline, adding that he expected the pipeline to shrink Western Canada Select discounts relative to West Texas Intermediate oil prices to US$10 per barrel. A barrel of WCS traded up 1.67 per cent Thursday to US$67.08, which implies a US$15.50 per barrel discount relative to the WTI price of US$82.58 per barrel. “We don’t know who has contracts on the Capline, but we do think that everybody benefits in the sense that the spread comes in. You don’t have to be physically shipping on the Capline to benefit,” Ollenberger said, adding that he expects to see the impact of the line on the bottomlines of Canadian producers in the second quarter of 2022. Oil producers contacted by the Financial Post said they expected the project would improve the returns of their barrels. “I’m excited about it. I think the Capline reversal would certainly be a positive for Canadian producers and improve pipeline optionality, specifically for the heavier producers, but it’ll de-weight the entire pipeline system in Canada,” Grant Fagerheim, president and CEO of Whitecap Resources Inc., told the Financial Post, referring to problems where Canadian oil exports have exceeded pipeline capacity in the past. Fagerheim said he would look at using the Capline to move more of his company’s oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast, adding the option of delivering oil to either the U.S. Midwest or the U.S. Gulf Coast provides some “insurance” for the oilpatch by providing a diversity of markets. To use the Capline, Canadian oil producers will need to ship their crude on Enbridge Inc.’s Mainline pipeline system to the U.S. Midwest, and then switch to the Enbridge’s Southern Access pipeline connected to the Patoka oil storage hub, which provides direct access to the Capline and a straight shot to the refineries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. The Capline reversal is coming into service in tandem with Enbridge’s 760,000-bpd Line 3 replacement project, which the Calgary-based pipeline giant completed in September and is now fully operational. The Capline rates range from $1.75 per barrel for shippers committing to move more than 100,000 barrels per day on the line to $3.75 per barrel on a spot basis. For years, Canadian oil producers sold the majority of their barrels to refiners in the U.S. Midwest. TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline was proposed as a way to reduce the dependence on that market by taking 830,000 bpd directly to the U.S. Gulf Coast, which is home to the world’s largest concentration of heavy oil refineries.

Alberta Probing Funding Sources of Oilsands Foes - Opposition to Canadian oil and gas pipelines has grown into an international environmental protest industry from a modest 2008 beginning as “The Tar Sands Campaign,” according to an Alberta government inquiry into foreign funding of home-grown fossil fuel foes.The 657-page Report of the Public Inquiry Into Anti-Alberta Energy Campaigns found that C$1.28 billion ($1 billion) in documented cross-border support for the resistance movement is “likely understated” given slack disclosure rules.Inquiry commissioner J. Stephens Allan wrote that the two-year, C$3.5million ($2.8 million) investigation detected no illegal activity. However, he stressed that campaigning nonprofit groups and charities contend with far fewer regulations than oil and gas pipeline companies.“The movement and the organizations that are part of it appear to function much like an industry unto themselves, attracting various sources of funding and employing large personnel and capital to promote their objectives,” said Allan.“Many of them have had a history of moving from cause to cause, from salmon farming, to forestry, to water, to oil and gas, to agriculture. There is no doubt these are all important issues to humanity, but these organizations sustain and grow themselves and their management with brilliant marketing campaigns.” The report and a supplementary analysis by Deloitte Forensic Inc. traced links among 16 U.S. foundations and 31 Canadian organizations, using 2000-2018 tax returns to map money trails. Foreign aid to the Canadian groups over the 19-year period ranged from C$76,979-$429 million ($61,583-$343 million), the investigation found. The use of cross-border cash earmarked for Canadian environmental activities remains a mystery. “I was ultimately not able to trace with precision the quantum of foreign funding applied to anti-Alberta energy campaigns,” said Allan. “This is due in large part to the fungible nature of money — once funds are deployed to an organization in some manner, they are deployed to advance the mission and campaigns of the organization, which are often varied and complex, and cannot be readily traced to any particular activity or initiative.”

Expropriation of oil and gas companies: Quebec must respect its own legislation and pay fair value -The government of Quebec has just announced its intention to expropriate the rights of companies which, in good faith and strongly encouraged by the government, have over the decades invested several hundred million dollars in Quebec. These investments notably led to the discovery of the Utica Shale, a huge gas field that could meet Quebec's consumption needs for more than a hundred years and whose value of gas is calculated in the hundreds of billions of dollars.The Hydrocarbon Act makes it clear that the rights are real property rights as described in the Chapter H-4.2. Division II. 15. The exploration, production and storage rights conferred by a licence and the right to produce brine conferred by an authorization are immovable real rights. Further, the laws of Quebec are clear on expropriation. Here are extracts from the Civil Code of Quebec and the Expropriation Act:

• 952. The owner cannot be forced to cede his property, except by means of expropriation made in accordance with the law for a cause of public utility and in return for fair and prior compensation.
• 58. Compensation is set on the basis of the value of the expropriated property and the damage directly caused by the expropriation.

 TotalEnergies CEO says gas price spike unlikely to be sustained | Reuters - The chief executive of French company TotalEnergies said on Saturday the recent gas price spike had been caused by a strong demand rebound post COVID-19 and prices were likely to stabilise after winter. “I don’t think it (gas price hike) is sustainable. Gas prices could come back after winter time,” Patrick Pouyanne said, speaking at the Saudi Green Initiative Forum. Excluding oil and gas was not the right approach to energy transition, he said, arguing that a lack of investment in hydrocarbons could itself create a crisis. “Where is the right balance between the energy of the present and building the future? Yes, we need to invest more and more in decarbonised energy, but at the same time we need the people of this planet to receive reliable, affordable energy,” he said. “If we don’t invest enough, we have crisis.”

U.S. LNG Shipments Are Falling at Just the Wrong Time - Production issues at two of the largest U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminals threaten to reduce shipments just as an energy crisis hits Europe and Asia, where buyers are desperately trying to rebuild depleted inventories ahead of winter. Freeport LNG is experiencing a wax buildup in its pipelines due to impurities in the gas it receives, said people with direct knowledge who asked not to be identified. As a result, LNG shipments from the Texas export terminal will be reduced for the remainder of October through November, the people said. Freeport officials declined to comment.

“Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year” – IMF blog - An unprecedented combination of factors is roiling world energy markets, rekindling the memories of the 1970s energy crisis and complicating an already uncertain outlook for inflation and the global economy.Energy futures indicate that prices are likely to moderate in the coming months. Spot prices for natural gas have more than quadrupled to record levels in Europe and Asia, and the persistence and global dimension of these price spikes are unprecedented. Typically, such moves are seasonal and localized. Asian prices, for example, saw a similar jump last year but those didn’t spill over with an associated similar rise in Europe. Our expectation is that these prices will revert to more normal levels early next year when heating demand ebbs and supplies adjust. However, if prices stay high as they have been, this could begin to be a drag on global growth.Meanwhile, ripple effects are being felt in coal and oil markets. Brent crude oil prices, the global benchmark, recently reached a seven-year high above $85 per barrel, as more buyers sought alternatives for heating and power generation amid already tight supplies. Coal, the nearest substitute, is in high demand as power plants turn to it more. This has pushed prices to the highest level since 2001, driving a rise in European carbon emission permit costs.Given this backdrop, it helps to look back to the start of the pandemic, when restrictions halted many activities across the global economy. This caused a collapse of energy consumption, leading energy companies to slash investment. However, consumption of natural gas rebounded fast—driven by industrial production, which accounts for about 20 percent of final natural gas consumption—boosting demand at a time when supplies were relatively low.Energy supply, in fact, has reacted slowly to price signals due to labor shortages, maintenance backlogs, longer lead times for new projects, and lackluster interest from investors in fossil fuel energy companies. Natural gas production in the United States, for example, remains below precrisis levels. Production in the Netherlands and Norway is also down. And Europe’s biggest supplier, Russia, has recently slowed its shipments to the continent.Weather has also exacerbated gas market imbalances. The Northern Hemisphere’s severe winter cold and summer heat boosted heating and cooling demand. Meanwhile, renewable power generation has been reduced in the United States and Brazil by droughts, which curbed hydropower output as reservoirs ran low, and in Northern Europe by below-average wind generation this summer and fall.

 Energy crisis divides European nations before emergency meeting --European Union energy ministers are set for another spat over how to cushion consumers and companies from soaring power and natural gas prices, with political and legal constraints leaving little room for immediate action. At an emergency meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday, the ministers will discuss how the EU could complement measures already taken by member states and what could be done in the medium term to prevent future price shocks. Several countries are calling for the EU to come up with new intervention tools, but a group of nations including Austria, Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands are poised to argue that the hike is temporary and should not lead to hasty changes to the bloc’s energy laws and its ambitious climate reforms, according to a new joint statement. “As the price spikes have global drivers, we should be very careful before interfering in the design of internal energy markets,” the countries, which also include Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Luxembourg and Latvia, said in the document shared with other governments before the ministerial meeting. The unprecedented energy crisis has become one of the hottest issues as the 27-nation bloc heads into the winter season, with households facing double-digit increases in electricity bills and some industrial giants curtailing production. Tuesday’s gathering follows a discussion last week about the crisis at a summit with EU leaders, who brushed off calls by some countries for quick fixes to the bloc’s laws and the Green Deal strategy to make the economy sustainable. Most countries have already cut taxes or approved subsidies to help households and companies, and there are few remaining tools that are technically possible and politically palatable. “I don’t see a lot of margin for maneuver for countries to come up with something concrete and new,” said Maximo Miccinilli, head of energy and climate at FleishmanHillard EU. “Is this council going to be a game changer for these negotiations? My answer is no -- it will be about preparing for the mid-term.” With varying energy sources and industrial strengths, countries in the bloc differ on how to blunt the impact of the crisis. Nations including Spain and Greece have called for creating a common platform to purchase natural gas. France is urging a review of the power market design and Poland wants immediate changes to the EU carbon market to curb speculation.

Is there an "energy crisis"? Not really — fossil fuels are collapsing, and it's high time - Carl Pope - The Economist calls it "The Energy Shock." Forbes and the Wall Street Journal go further, resurrecting a term from the 1970s: "Energy Crisis." The media is hyperventilating. But what is going on, really? I'd describe it as the first fossil fuel collapse of the clean energy transition, or even as proof that cleaner and faster means cheaper and stable energy." That's quite different from the Economist subhead, which pushes the idea there are "grave problems with the transition to clean energy." What does the evidence show? First, renewable wind and solar increased their contribution to global energy supply by a record 8% in 2021, providing 8,300 TeraWatt hours (TWH) of clean, cheap power. Wind generation globally grew by 17%, in spite of poor winds in parts of Europe. Overall, renewable power delivered 30% of the world's electrons in the first year of pandemic recovery. This clean energy growth occurred despite the fact that governments provide $600 billion per year to subsidize the use of fossil fuels. This new wind and solar power was cheaper than coal and gas in virtually every case. Indeed, the only major exceptions — meaning economies where fossil fuel generation is still cheaper than renewables — are Russia and Mexico (cheap gas), along with Japan and Indonesia (cheap coal). Current spikes in energy prices are primarily the result of market manipulation, which is hampering an adequate response to rapid economic recovery from the pandemic. We've seen this play before. A similar set of price spikes followed the 2008 financial crisis: Oil prices jumped by 68%, seaborne coal by 88% and U.S. natural gas by 33%. Indeed, volatile prices that jump up and down dramatically are normal for fossil fuels. For the last 15 years, the Brent oil price index and the U.S. Henry Hub gas benchmark have both varied year to year by more than 20% — and the Newcastle index for exported coal has leaped by a shocking 47% in an average year. Unlike fossil fuel energy, renewable power displays intrinsic price stability. Even a partial market share for renewables reduces an economy's vulnerability to fossil-fuel price volatility, and the larger that share grows, the greater the buffer. Electric utilities in Sweden, because of that country's large renewable power share, don't much care about the price of gas. The biggest single factor in the market failure we see at the moment is manipulation: The consortium of oil-producing nations known as OPEC+ has withheld crude oil, while Russia has restricted exports of natural gas. Massive pre-pandemic losses on shale gas and oil has deterred investors, understandably enough, from renewing their commitment to rapidly depleting shale wells. Energy markets overall are inadequately designed and lack buffers against volatility caused by factors like these.

Russia close to using natural gas as weapon in Europe’s gas crunch -- U.S. President Joe Biden’s global energy security adviser said on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is getting close to using natural gas as a political tool if Russia is holding back fuel exports to Europe as it suffers an energy crunch. “I think we are getting close to that line if Russia indeed has the gas to supply and it chooses not to, and it will only do so if Europe accedes to other demands that are completely unrelated,” Amos Hochstein, Biden’s adviser, told reporters, when asked if Putin was using gas as a weapon. Hochstein said gas prices in Europe have been driven higher not just by events in the region but also by a dry season in China that has reduced energy output from hydropower and increased global competition for natural gas. Still, while several factors have led to the European gas crisis, Russia is best placed to come to the aid of Europe, he said. “There is no doubt in my mind, and the (International Energy Agency) has itself validated, that the only supplier that can really make a big difference for European energy security at the moment for this winter is Russia,” Hochstein said. Russia can increase upstream production of gas, and should do it quickly through existing pipelines, he said. Putin has rejected suggestions that Moscow was squeezing supplies for political motives, saying it will increase flow as much as partners ask. Putin has blamed record high prices on the EU’s energy policy and said Russia can boost supplies to Europe once its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline gets approved. Yuriy Vitrenko, the head of Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz, this month said Russia was trying to blackmail Europe into certifying its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by keeping fuel supplies low. The pipeline, which Washington opposes because it would circumvent Ukraine, is finished but needs approvals from Germany to start delivering Russian gas under the Baltic Sea to Europe. Approvals from Germany and the European Commission for Nord Stream 2 will likely take until March, so if Russia says it can quickly boost gas flow through Nord Stream 2, it should be able to do so now through existing pipelines, Hochstein said. “You can’t have it both ways,” Hochstein said.

What’s Behind Saudi Arabia’s Pivot To Natural Gas? - Saudi Aramco’s request for bids from local and international companies to build out a water desalination plant project in the Jafurah shale gas field brings back into focus the Kingdom’s claims to be at the forefront of the global energy transition towards cleaner energy through the reduction of carbon emissions. As with many of its biggest claims regarding its oil industry – analyzed most recently here – this claim regarding its drive towards cleaner energy is also extremely misleading, and would also appear to align with the country’s alleged attempts to lobby the UN to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia announced with much fanfare early in 2020 that it is to spend at least US$110 billion on the Jafurah gas project, with the intention being that it would become the world’s third-largest gas producer by 2030, after the U.S., and Russia, and a net exporter of gas by that time. As even Aramco has noticed that Saudi Arabia does not have abundant freshwater supplies - its chief executive officer, Amin Nasser, keenly observed early on that ‘we are not rich with water’ – the company will use seawater instead for the fracking process, hence the new contracts for a desalination plant. According to the Saudis, the Jafurah field has an estimated 200 trillion cubic feet of gas (TcF), a figure that should be taken in the context of all other Saudi energy reserves estimates but let us pretend for the purposes of debate that it is true. In the meantime, Aramco has natural gas reserves supposedly of 319.5 trillion cubic feet (TcF), according to figures released in 2019. This number had bewilderingly increased from the previous 302.3 TcF just a year before and even more bewilderingly just a couple of years before it had been 233.8 TcF. Nonetheless, again, for the purposes of this debate, let us pretend that this figure is true as well. The plan is for Aramco to start production from Jafurah in 2024 and to reach 2.2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day of gas by 2036. In 2018, just before the hike in gas reserves estimates and without Jafurah in production, Aramco produced around 8.9 Bcf/d of natural gas. With this amount of gas being produced and used in Saudi Arabia’s energy mix at that time, it was still the case that from 2015 to 2018 the amount of highly polluting fuel oil that the Kingdom used in domestic power generation increased from 400,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd, Richard Bronze, a cross-energy analyst for global energy consultancy, Energy Aspects, in London, told OilPrice.com. This supposed move to gas, in turn, was part of Saudi Arabia’s broader drive to pretend that it was moving towards a cleaner energy program. A key part of this was its statements that it was also aiming for compliance with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) global sulfur cap for marine fuel being cut to 0.5 percent from 3.5 percent, the target date for which was the end of 2020. Despite the comments around that time from Saudi Aramco’s senior vice president of downstream operations, Abdulazziz al-Judaimi, that the company’s fully-owned refining assets were already 85 percent IMO-compliant, Saudi Arabia was one of the very few places in the world that actually imported fuel oil at that point, according to Bronze. This meant that it could legitimately – sort of – state that it was decreasing its own production of the dirty fuel oil product.

Exxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects - Exxon Mobil Corp.’s remade board of directors is debating whether to continue with several major oil and gas projects as the company reconsiders its investment strategy in a fast-changing energy landscape, according to people familiar with the matter. Members of the board—which includes three directors successfully nominated by an activist investor in May and two other new members—have expressed concerns about certain projects, including a $30 billion liquefied natural gas development in Mozambique and another multibillion-dollar gas project in Vietnam, the people said. Oil and gas prices are at multiyear highs, and the world is experiencing a shortage of fossil fuels as economies emerge from the pandemic. But it takes years for such energy megaprojects to produce additional supplies, and more years after that for the investments to pay off. Exxon board members are weighing the fate of future projects as the company is facing pressure from investors to restrain fossil-fuel investment to limit carbon emissions and return more cash to shareholders. Environmentalists and some government officials are also pressuring the company to produce less oil and gas. The discussions are taking place as part of a review of the oil company’s five-year spending plan, on which the board is set to vote at the end of this month, the people said. It isn’t clear whether the board will make a final call on the Mozambique or Vietnam projects during the current review, according to the people. Both projects face potential political obstacles, and some Exxon board members have expressed concerns about whether they would return the billions in upfront investment they would require, some of the people said. The board meetings have been cordial, the people said. As part of the review, Exxon is analyzing the expected carbon emissions from each project and how they would affect the company’s ability to meet pledges to reduce emissions, people familiar with the matter said. The annual projected emissions from the Mozambique and Vietnam projects were among the highest in Exxon’s planned pipeline of oil and gas projects, according to a pre-pandemic internal analysis by Exxon, which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Norton said the analysis of projected carbon emissions the Journal viewed was several years old and didn’t include the impact of Exxon’s most recent emission reduction plans and other post-Covid-19 changes. The discussions over the projects represent a new dynamic for Exxon’s board, said people familiar with the matter. Engine No. 1, the hedge fund that led a campaign that replaced three Exxon board members earlier this year, argued Exxon was investing in low-return projects and lacked a coherent strategy to chart a transition to lower-carbon fuels amid growing concerns about climate change. The activist was successful in part because it was able to win support from some of the company’s largest investors, including BlackRock Inc. and Vanguard Group. The asset managers said one of the reasons they supported the Engine candidates was that Exxon’s board lacked energy expertise and independence. The Mozambique project, called Rovuma, would tap vast reserves of natural gas off the coast of the southern African country, then chill them to a liquid state at an onshore plant to be exported around the world. It is one of the largest projects in Exxon’s portfolio, and its proximity to India could give Exxon an opportunity to export gas to a fast-growing market. But Mozambique lacks infrastructure and is fighting an Islamic State-linked insurgency that has claimed more than 3,000 lives. TotalEnergies SE halted construction of a $20 billion gas project there in March after violence erupted near its construction site. Exxon spent $2.8 billion to acquire a stake in the Rovuma project but has delayed a final investment decision for several years.

Saudis have ‘huge concern’ over falling global oil supply capacity Saudi Aramco said oil-output capacity across the world is dropping quickly and companies need to invest more in production. It’s a “huge concern,” Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said in an interview in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital. “The spare capacity is shrinking.” His comments come with crude prices having soared 70% this year to around $85 a barrel. Many major consumers, including the U.S., Japan and India, have called on producers to pump more. The supply deficit in oil markets could worsen in 2022 if the coronavirus pandemic eases and more people fly, he said. “If there’s aviation pick up next year, that spare capacity will be depleted,” he said. “It’s now getting to a situation where there’s limited supply -- whatever is left that’s spare is declining rapidly.” Several oil and gas traders have criticized governments and climate activists for calling on companies to stop investing in fossil fuels, saying that will cause shortages of energy in the coming decade. Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, is investing billions of dollars to raise its daily capacity to 13 million barrels from 12 million. It expects to complete the project by 2027. Many Wall Street banks and OPEC+ members doubt there will be supply shortages next year. JPMorgan Chase & Co. has said oil markets will shift to a supply surplus of 1 million barrels by March from a deficit of around 1.5 million barrels now. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister told Bloomberg on Saturday there could be a “huge uplift” in crude inventories in 2022. “We still have Covid,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, justifying OPEC+’s refusal to ease deep supply cuts it began last year any faster. “We still have jet fuel limited in terms of growth. If you do more now, you’re accelerating the problem.” The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are increasing daily output by 400,000 barrels each month. The 23-nation group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, next meets on Nov. 4 to decide whether to change strategy.

Peak Oil Demand Forecasts Turn Sour As Demand Keeps Growing -In the mind of many a news consumer, oil is on its way out. So is coal. So is gas, although that one might stick around for a little longer. We are, after all, moving into a new era of clean energy, and while it will take us some time to get there, it’s our only option for a future. And fossil fuels have no place in that future.The latest oil, gas, and coal price rally, therefore, must have come as a shock to that hypothetical news consumer. It turns out, this rally said, that news does not always reflect reality. Neither do oil and gas price forecasts. Remember when there was a gas glut, as recently as last year? Everyone said it would persist, keeping prices low. But it didn’t. The glut ended quite suddenly this year.Predicting oil—or, apparently, gas—prices is a notoriously uncertain business. This, however, is not stopping hundreds if not thousands of people from doing it on a daily basis, with varying degrees of success. Right now, most forecasters seem to expect prices to continue rising because there are simply too many factors working to support them.Over the longer term, predicting oil prices becomes even more challenging. Right now, it is especially challenging because few forecasters appear to have anticipated the current rally, and now a flurry of revisions are being made, according to a New York Times report. The revisions are not about average oil prices this year and next, however. They concern peak oil demand: one of the few necessary conditions for every net-zero scenario.The dominant narrative is that the renewable energy rush will kill off oil demand growth in a few years, a decade at most. Yet this narrative never foresaw the current rally for some reason. It never factored in the possibility of a surge in the demand for coal, not just in the usual place—emerging economies—but in countries such as the United States, where coal consumption is on track to rise for the first time since 2014. The energy crunch this year disrupted a lot of narratives.

Wall Street projects a “higher for longer” era for oil prices --Could the era of cheap oil supply be gone for good? That’s the conclusion of some of the biggest commodities desks on Wall Street, where banks have been lifting their long-term price forecasts, often by $10 or more. While the U.S. shale boom brought about a “lower-for-longer” mantra, the market is now fixated on climate change and the dwindling appetite to invest in fossil fuels. Instead of growing supply, companies are under pressure to limit their spending, causing a structural under-investment in new production that — the argument goes — will keep oil prices higher for longer. “My advice to clients is that you want to stay long oil until you know where that equilibrium price is” that brings new supplies online, said Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “We know it’s above these levels because we haven’t had a big uptick in capex and investment.” The notion of a supply gap is nothing new. Since prices crashed in 2014, analysts have talked up the potential for demand to outstrip production as a result of underinvestment. But the rout in energy prices from Covid-19, combined with pressing environmental concerns, offer reason to think this time is different. The number of oil and gas drilling rigs globally may have recovered from the lows of when oil prices turned negative last year, but they are still down more than 30% on the start of 2020. Current figures are about as low as they were in 2016, according to Baker Hughes Co., despite headline crude prices being near a seven-year high. Among the banks seeing higher prices for longer, Goldman says $85 for 2023. Morgan Stanley bumped what it calls its long-term forecast up by $10 to $70 this week, while BNP Paribas sees crude at almost $80 in 2023. Other banks including RBC Capital Markets have talked up the prospect of oil being at the start of a structural bull run. Such estimates imply that a commodity vital to the global economy has become structurally more expensive. Oil price expectations underpin hundreds of billions of dollars of equity valuations for major international oil companies like Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc. There’s an ever-dwindling appetite to lend on the part of investors too. In the last week alone, the largest French banks said they would curb the financing of the shale oil and gas industry from early next year. Ecuador recently had to double the amount of banks that could provide it with credit guarantees as financial institutions shunned crude harvested from the Amazon.

Oil prices soar, bullish hedge funds hold their nerve: Kemp - (Reuters) - Petroleum futures and options saw another influx of hedge fund inflows last week as renewed bullishness about output restrictions overcame concerns about the already-high level of prices. Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 10 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts in the week to Oct. 19 (https://tmsnrt.rs/3EbVOVf). Funds have been net buyers in seven of the last eight weeks, adding a total of 188 million barrels to their positions since Aug. 24, according to records compiled by exchanges and regulators. The most recent week saw buying in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+23 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (+8 million) and European gas oil (+9 million), but sales of Brent (-24 million) and U.S. heating oil (-7 million). Most of the increase came from creation of new bullish long positions (+11 million barrels), which outnumbered the establishment of new bearish shorts (+1 million), indicating funds still expect prices to rise further. Portfolio managers have amassed a net long position of 865 million barrels across all six contracts (77th percentile for all weeks since 2013) with long positions outnumbering shorts by almost 7:1 (86th percentile). Bullish long-short ratios are led by middle distillates (97th percentile) and crude (79th percentile) while gasoline is less stretched (72nd percentile). The distribution is not surprising, since distillates are best placed to benefit most from strong demand from the manufacturing and freight transport sectors, as well as any fuel-switching this winter as a result of record high gas prices in Europe and Asia. Portfolio managers remain bullish about the potential for price increases even though crude oil prices have already climbed significantly. Front-month Brent futures have risen by more than 22% over the last two months, a rate of increase in the 95th percentile for all similar periods since 1993. But traders expect producers will continue to restrict output, leaving it lagging growth in consumption, lowering oil inventories even further in the months ahead.

A Global Oil Shortage Is Inevitable -Chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis and the pressure on oil and gas companies to curb emissions and even “keep it in the ground” will likely lead to peak global oil production earlier than previously expected, analysts say. This would be a welcome development for green energy advocates, net-zero agendas, and the planet if it weren’t for one simple fact: oil demand is rebounding from the pandemic-driven slump and will set a new average annual record as soon as next year. The energy transition and the various government plans for net-zero emissions have prompted analysts to forecast that peak oil demand would occur earlier than expected just a few years ago. However, as current investment trends in oil and gas stand, global oil supply could peak sooner than global oil demand, opening a supply gap that would lead to increased volatility on the oil market, with spikes in prices, and, potentially, structurally higher oil prices by the middle of this decade and beyond. “On current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand,” Morgan Stanley’s research department wrote in a note this week carried by Reuters. “The planet puts boundaries on the amount of carbon that can safely be emitted. Therefore, oil consumption needs to peak,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said. The problem with the world is that oil consumption – wishful thinking, investor pressure, and all – is not peaking. Nor will it peak until the end of this decade at the earliest, according to most estimates. OPEC expects global oil demand to continue to grow into the mid-2030s to 108 million barrels per day (bpd), after which it is set to plateau until 2045, as per the cartel’s latest annual outlook. Some other analysts expect peak demand at some point in the late 2020s. Investment in new supply, however, is severely lagging global oil demand growth. Demand is growing again after the 2020 COVID crisis and, contrary to some expectations from early 2020 that the world’s oil consumption would never return to pre-pandemic levels, demand is currently just a few months away from hitting and exceeding those levels. Supply, on the other hand, looks constrained beyond the OPEC+ deal horizon. New investment last year slumped to a decade-and-a-half low. Last year, global upstream investment sank to a 15-year low of $350 billion, according to estimates by Wood Mackenzie from earlier this year. Investment is not expected to materially pick up this year, either, despite $80 oil. That’s because supermajors stick to capital discipline and pledge net-zero emission targets, part of which some of them plan to reach by curbing investment and developments in non-core little-profitable new oil projects. U.S. shale, for its part, is not rushing this time to “drill themselves into oblivion,” as Harold Hamm said in 2017, as American producers look to finally reward shareholders after years of plowing cash flows into drilling and chasing production growth. Considering that oil demand will still grow, at least for a few more years, underinvestment in new supply would be a major problem in the medium and long term. Despite the energy transition, demand will not just vanish, and new supply will be needed for years to come to replace declining production and reserves. The oil industry will need massive investments over the next 25 years in order to meet demand, according to OPEC. The industry will need cumulative long-term upstream, midstream, and downstream oil-related investments of $11.8 trillion by 2045, OPEC says.

WTI Crude Climbs to $85 a Barrel for the First Time Since 2014 (Bloomberg) -- West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $85 a barrel for the first time since 2014, another landmark in a global energy crunch that has seen prices soar.Oil has jumped in recent weeks as natural gas prices hit records. The surge in gas could add at least 1 million barrels a day to oil demand, according to Goldman Sachs, which sees global consumption on the cusp of returning to pre-pandemic levels. That comes as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are adding back output only gradually into a market where stockpiles are steadily declining. The advance in oil prices is the latest leg higher in a surge in broader energy costs that is adding inflationary pressure to the global e conomy as policymakers begin to taper stimulus. WTI futures rose as much as 1.5% to $85.04 a barrel at 8:23 a.m New York time. Brent also extended gains.

Oil prices reach multi-year highs on tight supply - Oil prices reached multi-year highs on Monday before steadying, as tight global supply and strengthening fuel demand in the United States and beyond supported prices. Brent crude futures gained 46 cents to settle at US$85.99 a barrel. The contract reached a session high of US$86.70 a barrel, its highest level since October 2018. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were unchanged at US$83.76 a barrel after reaching US$85.41 a barrel, the highest since October 2014. Both benchmarks have climbed by around 20per cent since the start of September. U.S. crude has risen for nine straight weeks, while Brent has risen for seven. "The global energy supply crunch continues to show its teeth, as oil prices extend their upward march this week, a result of traders pricing in the ongoing rise in fuel demand – which amid limited supply response is depleting global stockpiles," said Louise Dickson, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy. Goldman Sachs said a strong rebound in global oil demand could push Brent crude prices above its year-end forecast of US$90 a barrel. The bank estimated gas-to-oil switching could contribute at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to oil demand. After more than a year of depressed fuel demand, gasoline and distillate consumption is back in line with five-year averages in the United States, the world's largest fuel consumer. Oil prices have also been bolstered by worries over coal and gas shortages in China, India and Europe, which spurred fuel switching to diesel and fuel oil for power. "The reason we're seeing strength today is many fold, but amongst them is fuel switching," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. In India, refiners' crude oil throughput in September edged higher from the previous month, government data showed on Friday, as refineries boosted output to meet surging demand.

Oil Settles Flat On Iran Discussions - Oil erased gains after hitting $85 a barrel for the first time since 2014 with traders focused on upcoming talks between Iran and the European Union that may lead to a revival of a 2015 nuclear deal. Futures in New York ended Monday’s session unchanged after earlier rising as much as 2%. Iran and the European Union will hold discussions in Brussels on Wednesday, the Islamic Republic’s lead negotiator said. The meeting is a prelude to the resumption of broader talks in Vienna on how to revive the pact that gave Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. The U.S. special envoy for Iran said talks were at a “critical phase,” and a period of “more intense diplomacy” to end the standoff was approaching. “As long as they are talking, there is a chance a deal gets done,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. Still, over the past 12 months oil has more than doubled there appears to be little end in sight for the rally. Wall Street has been steadily upping its views of the market, expecting prices to trade higher for longer. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says consumption is on the cusp of returning to pre-Covid levels, while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been restrained in easing the draconian supply cuts imposed in 2020 to salvage prices. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg Television over the weekend that producers shouldn’t take the rise in prices for granted because the coronavirus pandemic could still hit demand. OPEC+ is raising daily production by 400,000 barrels each month, and has resisted pressure to do more. The oil market’s tightness has been exacerbated by some members failing to reach their output quotas. Meanwhile, Russia expects OPEC+ to increase its output by 400,000 barrels per day at its Nov. 4 meeting, as previously agreed, Reuters reported, citing Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Prices: WTI for December delivery was unchanged, settling at $83.76 a barrel in New York. Brent for December settlement rose 46 cents to end the session at $85.99 a barrel. Despite weaker headline futures prices, the oil market’s structure remained strong. West Texas Intermediate crude for immediate delivery traded more than a dollar higher than the next month on Monday as traders pay premium prices to secure supplies, a bullish structure known as backwardation. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the biggest storage hub in the U.S., are rapidly shrinking, and supplies fell another 2.84 million barrels last week, according to traders, citing Wood Mackenzie data.

Oil Futures Wobble with Growth Concerns in Focus, USD Slips - Nearby month oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange moved mixed in early trade Tuesday, with all contracts erasing some of their early week gains as traders balance concerns over slowing economic growth undermined by rising inflation and flare-up in COVID-19 infections in Asia and parts of the European Union against prospects of tightening the global oil market in the fourth quarter. U.S. economic growth likely slowed to 2.7% in the third quarter from 6.7% expansion seen from April-July period, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. A combination of a tight labor market, disrupted supply chains, and spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus are all seen weighing on economic activity in the final months of the year and into early 2022. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank is less optimistic on third-quarter growth, estimating gross domestic product gained a mere 0.5%, down from a 1.2% expansion rate seen on Oct. 15. While Thursday's third quarter GDP release will likely disappoint, the deeper forces that have pressured growth this fall have accelerated further in the final months of the year. New outbreaks of COVID-19 infections in China and Russia coupled with a record run in natural gas and coal prices stands to exacerbate risk of global stagflation. Next, investors will turn their focus to consumer confidence index for October, to be released by the Conference Board at 10 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for consumer's outlook to have eroded further this month after plunging to a near decade-low at the end of the summer. The Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board is expected to drop to 108.3 in October from September's 109.3. The U.S. Dollar Index, which gauges the greenback's value against a bundle of foreign currencies, reversed lower in early hours Tuesday after nearly touching 94-level in overnight trade. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for December delivery gained $0.24 to trade at $84 per barrel (bbl), and the international crude benchmark Brent contract traded little changed at $86.11 bbl. NYMEX November RBOB advanced 1.43 cents to $2.5305 gallon and front-month ULSD futures edged up to $2.5684 gallon. Earlier in the week, oil futures found limited support from comments by Saudi oil minister Prince Abdul-Aziz bin Salman who indicated OPEC+ should stick to their policy of measured production increases next month, adding that global demand recovery is far from complete. "We are not out of the woods. We need a careful approach. This crisis is contained but not necessarily over,"

Oil benchmarks settle at highest since 2014 on short supply (Reuters) -Oil prices edged up to their highest since 2014 on Tuesday, supported by a global supply shortage and strong demand in the United States, the world's biggest consumer. The rally came ahead of U.S. inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Analysts expect the latest weekly U.S. oil inventory data to show a 1.9 million-barrel build in crude stocks. Brent futures rose 41 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $86.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended 89 cents, or 1.1%, higher at $84.65. Those were the highest closes for both global benchmarks since October 2014. "The energy crunch is still nowhere close to subsiding, so we expect prevailing strength in oil prices in November and December as supply lags demand and as OPEC+ stays on the sidelines," said Louise Dickson, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy. OPEC+, comprising of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, is currently raising production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month, but has pushed back against calls to boost output faster in response to the surge in prices. "Crude prices continue to rise and pleas to OPEC to increase production continue to fall on deaf ears. The only thing that will get OPEC+ motivated is if private U.S. operators signal, they will increase production," said Edward Moya, senior market analysts at OANDA, noting "a jump to $90 oil seems likely." Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said Brent was likely to push above its year-end forecast of $90 a barrel, while Larry Fink, chief executive of the world's largest asset manager BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), said there was a high probability of oil reaching $100. With oil and gas prices at multi-year highs, U.S. shale producers are poised to deliver the strongest earnings since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, so long as they did not lock in sales tied to much lower prices. While China's red-hot power and coal markets have cooled somewhat after government intervention, energy prices remain elevated worldwide as temperatures fall with the onset of the northern winter. Gasoline and distillate consumption in the United States is back in line with five-year averages after more than a year of depressed demand, and the market will be closely watching U.S. inventory levels.

WTI Dips After Unexpected Crude Inventory Build -Oil prices rebounded from weakness yesterday afternoon with WTI testing back above $84.50 ahead of tonight's API inventory data to seven year highs."There is little that can tilt oil prices away from their upwards momentum on the short term, as the only real supply source of significance is OPEC+, and there doesn't seem to be much mood for policy change on that front for the moment," said Louise Dickson, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, in daily market commentary."There are only two offramps to the current bout of oil price volatility and one is OPEC+ taking supply action, but the group has repeatedly said it does not plan on altering its strategy," said Dickson. There's also the chance that "another round of COVID-19 breakouts and lockdowns could again dim the demand outlook," she said. "But it seems to be a last resort strategy for many economies that are tired of repeating the unpopular economy-damaging process."So all eyes on stocks and supplies...API

• Crude +2.318mm (-100k exp)
• Cushing -3.734mm - biggest draw since January 2021
• Gasoline +530k (-2.7mm exp)
• Distillates +986k (-2mm exp)

Last week saw a surprise crude inventory build (and product builds) but offset by a huge draw at Cushing...

Oil Futures Fall After Bearish APIs With USD Rangebound -- Nearby delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange fell sharply in early trade Wednesday, sending U.S. crude benchmark as much as 1.5% lower after the American Petroleum Institute reported across-the-board builds occurred in domestic crude and petroleum product supplies last week, while the U.S. dollar index moved mixed ahead of the release of the key economic data. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for December delivery dropped more than $1 to $83.61 per barrel (bbl) after topping $85 bbl earlier this week, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract declined $0.94 to trade near $85.44 bbl. NYMEX November RBOB retreated 3.68 cents or 1.5% to $2.48 gallon and the front-month ULSD contact dropped 3.60 cents to $2.5413 gallon. Oil complex came under selling pressure on Wednesday after industry data from the API reported U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased 2.318 million bbl in the week ended Oct. 22, more than four times calls for a 500,000 bbl build. Unexpected build was accompanied by builds in gasoline and distillate fuels stocks that increased by a combined 1.5 million bbl in the reviewed week. DTN Refined Fuels Demand data showed gasoline demand in the United States increased 1.1% through the week ended Oct. 22, while down just 0.5% against the comparable pre-COVID level in 2019. Diesel demand surged 3.5% from the prior week last week and strengthened 6.9% relative to the same week in 2019. Crude stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub -- the biggest U.S. crude depot, meanwhile, plunged by a massive 3.73 million bbl after declining by more than 4 million bbl in the prior two weeks. If realized, the drawdown would press Cushing stockpiles below 30 million bbl for the first time since October 2018 when inventories fell to near operational low levels. Minimum operational capacity at the storage tanks in Cushing are estimated between 16 million and 22 million bbl. Historically, Cushing inventories have been seen as a good barometer for how tight the physical market is, while heavily affecting WTI's market structure, with the six-month calendar spread widening to $7.23 bbl at settlement Tuesday -- near Friday's $7.32 bbl better than eight-year high. Analysts suggest that global shortages of natural gas in European Union and Asia have made the light, sweet crude from Cushing more attractive on the global market because it contains less sulfur than some other types of crude oil that must be processed through units at refineries called hydrocrackers. Hydrocrackers rely on hydrogen usually generated from natural gas -- the cost of which has surged to record highs in parts of Europe and Asia recently. Natural gas prices surged to record highs in the EU and Asia amid depleted inventories, lower-than-expected output from renewable energy sources, and swift reopening of economies. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies summarized this confluence of factors, noting it creates "this perfect storm." Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate global oil demand has already jumped to 99 million bpd this month and will soon top pre-COVID levels, with excess demand from gas-to-oil switching in power generation contributing to at least 500,000 bpd of that consumption. Should winter 2022 prove colder-than-expected, this would most certainly lead to big price spikes for natural gas and coal that would quickly spill over into the oil complex.

WTI Holds Losses After Big Crude Build, Cushing Stocks Plunge --Oil prices tumbled overnight following a surprise crude build reported by API, but WTI has rebounded this morning after tagging a $82 handle to top $84. "There is little that can tilt oil prices away from their upwards momentum on the short term, as the only real supply source of significance is OPEC+, and there doesn't seem to be much mood for policy change on that front for the moment," said Louise Dickson, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, in daily market commentary."There are only two offramps to the current bout of oil price volatility and one is OPEC+ taking supply action, but the group has repeatedly said it does not plan on altering its strategy," said Dickson. There's also the chance that "another round of COVID-19 breakouts and lockdowns could again dim the demand outlook," she said. "But it seems to be a last resort strategy for many economies that are tired of repeating the unpopular economy-damaging process."All eyes will be on the crude data as well as Cushing's offsets as refiners “are drawing down on Cushing at a pretty incredible pace right now,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. “We’re getting close to empty.” DOE

• Crude +4.27mm (-100k exp)
• Cushing -3.899mm - biggest draw since January 2021
• Gasoline -1.99mm (-2.7mm exp)
• Distillates -432k (-2mm exp)

Crude stocks rose far more than expected and more than API reported last week, but products saw inventories fall and Cushing stocks plunged...

Oil drops more than 2% as U.S. stockpiles rise sharply --Oil prices fell on Wednesday after U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose more than expected, even as fuel inventories dropped and tanks at the nation’s largest storage hub emptied further. The bigger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stocks gave some investors an impetus to unload long positions after strong gains in recent weeks brought both the Brent and U.S. crude benchmarks to multi-year highs. Brent oil futures ended down $1.82, or 2.1%, to $84.58 a barrel, after closing at a seven-year high on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down $1.99, or 2.4%, to $82.66 a barrel. “We’ve had a reasonable pullback on profit-taking more than anything, but still $80 for (WTI) is a strong number,” said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. Both benchmarks closed on Friday with a seventh straight weekly gain as major producers hold back supply and demand rebounds after the easing of pandemic restrictions. Crude oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels last week, according to the U.S. Energy Department, more than the expected 1.9 million-barrel gain. Gasoline stocks dropped by 2 million barrels, lowering them to levels not seen in nearly four years, as U.S. consumers grapple with rising prices to fill their vehicles’ tanks. Storage at the WTI delivery hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, is more depleted than at any point in the past three years, with prices for longer-dated futures contracts pointing to supplies staying at those levels for months. Oil has advanced of late on the expectation that nations like China and India will respond to shortages in coal and natural gas by switching to crude-derived products for power generation and heating. Such demand could boost overall crude consumption by more than half a million barrels of oil a day.

Oil Futures Sink on Iranian JCPOA Talks, US Growth Outlook -- Nearby delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange extended heavy losses into early trade Thursday, sending the front-month West Texas Intermediate contract below $82 per barrel (bbl) amid prospects for the potential return of Iranian crude oil exports on the global market after Tehran agreed to restart nuclear talks with Western powers next month, and a weaker-than-expected demand recovery in the United States and Asia under pressure from a sharp slowdown of economic growth. The U.S. economy's post-pandemic recovery likely slowed markedly in the three months ending in September, with global supply chain disruptions, rising inflation, and a resurgent Delta wave of infections seen limiting that growth. Economists forecast U.S. gross domestic product expanded at 2.7% in the third quarter, down from a 6.7% growth rate seen from the April-to-June period. If confirmed in data to be published Thursday morning from the U.S. Department of Commerce, that would mark the weakest growth rate since the U.S. economy suffered a historic contraction in the second quarter 2020. The Federal Reserve most recent Summary of Economic Projections showed that policymakers have already revised their 2021 full-year growth forecast to 5.9%, down from 7% seen earlier this year. Inflation in the third quarter spiked well above the Fed's target range of 2% despite fading base effects of the pandemic and government stimulus, weakening the case for "transitory" inflation. Unusually strong demand for consumer goods coupled with a tight labor market have driven inflation to a 13-year high 5.4% in September. "The risk is clearly now to longer and more-persistent bottlenecks, and thus to higher inflation," said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in his congressional testimony earlier this month, adding that supply-chain bottlenecks weren't improving. U.S. consumers are now paying an average of $3.29 gallon for gasoline, the highest level in seven years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Oil complex came under selling pressure on Wednesday amid a one-two punch of potential increase in Iranian crude oil exports after Tehran announced its return to nuclear talks and larger-than-expected build in U.S. commercial crude supplies last week, indicating the market might be not as tight as previously thought. Commercial crude oil supplies spiked 4.3 million bbl in the week ended Oct. 22, showed data from U.S. Energy Information Administration, well above calls for a 500,000 bbl increase. Larger-than-expected build came on the back of subdued refining activity and sluggish fuel demand. While the headline crude build was bearish, another large drop in Cushing inventories -- the delivery point for WTI futures, was drawn down to 27 million bbl -- the lowest since stock level since October 2018. Total petroleum products increased 4.4 million bbl last week. Meanwhile, Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri-Kani, said Wednesday that Iran will restart nuclear discussions before the end of November, opening the door for potential lifting of U.S. sanctions on its crude exports. Talks between the country and world powers to restore the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action had been suspended in June ahead of Iranian presidential elections. Tehran doesn't disclose its crude export data, but assessments based on shipping data suggest a fall from about 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to as low as 200,000 bpd. "Iran will return to its pre-sanction crude production level as soon as U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted," said Iranian oil minister Javad Owji earlier this month.

WTI Futures Back On Rise Again Oil eked out a gain with OPEC and its allies expecting a tighter global oil market in the fourth quarter. Futures in New York closed higher by 0.2% on Thursday, erasing earlier losses. World oil inventories will decline by an average of 1.1 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, according to a person familiar with preliminary figures evaluated by the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee. That compares with a forecast reduction of 670,000 barrels a day. Fuel demand will be slightly higher and supply from outside OPEC+ a little lower than previously anticipated, the data show. Meanwhile, stockpiles at the biggest U.S. storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, continue to rapidly shrink. Supplies fell another 1.81 million barrels last week, according to traders citing Wood Mackenzie data. Crude has eased off of multiyear highs in recent days yet still remains elevated. European natural gas prices dropped after President Vladamir Putin signaled that Russia will send extra gas to the continent next month. Plus, Iran and the European Union agreed to restart negotiations on a revival of the 2015 nuclear accord, signaling a greater prospect of Iranian barrels coming back to the market. Still, by the end of the year, stockpiles in developed economies will stand 158 million barrels below average, a bigger deficit than the 106 million projected a month ago, the figures evaluated by the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee show. The committee will report to OPEC+ ministers, who meet on Nov. 4, to consider another production increase. The group has found itself increasingly under pressure from governments worldwide to further boost supply. Earlier this month, Nigeria and joined Saudi Arabia said that the group must resist pressure to raise oil production faster until the coronavirus pandemic abates. Traders believe the cartel will stay the course, in fear of making the same mistakes of overproduction in March of 2020. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose 15 cents to settle at $82.81 a barrel in New York. Brent for December settlement fell 26 cents to settle at $84.32 a barrel. Meanwhile, the U.S. is pushing for higher production as oil prices remain elevated. U.S. Senior Advisor for Global Energy Security Amos Hochstein said the global economy is facing an energy crisis at the IEF Special Gas Market Dialogue. This comes as the White House has attempted to pressure OPEC+ to increase output as demand for crude rebounds due to the global economic recovery and gasoline prices increase.

Oil prices rebound, edge up ahead of next week's Opec meeting --US crude prices settled higher on Friday, turning positive after an early decline, supported by expectations that Opec+ would maintain production cuts.However, Brent and US crude oil benchmarks both declined on the week after reaching multi-year highs on Monday.Brent crude rose 6 cents to settle at $84.38, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 76 cents, or 0.9%, to $83.57. "While more Iranian supply may come online, it looks like Opec+ is unlikely to raise production which is giving strength to the market today," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York.Prices have been pressured since Wednesday by a report that US crude stocks rose by 4.3 million barrels in the latest week. Iran has said talks on reviving the international deal on its nuclear programme will restart by the end of November, bringing it a step closer to boosting oil exports.Crude has surged in 2021 as economies recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, but prices are on track to fall this week, with Brent facing its first weekly decline in about two monthsUS energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a 15th month in row in October as oil prices soared to fresh seven-year highs, spurred by rising oil prices to its highest since count April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.Exxon and Chevron are looking to add drilling rigs in the Permian basin after sharply cutting crews and output in the region last year, the companies said Friday. Chevron said it will add two drilling rigs and two completion crews this quarter.On Thursday, Algeria said a crude output increase by Opec+ in December should not exceed 400,000 barrels per day because of market uncertainties and risks. The alliance, which is gradually unwinding last year's record output cuts, meets on 4 November. British and European gas prices continued to fall on Friday after Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia could start pumping gas into European storage.

U.S. oil prices end longest-ever streak of weekly gains as natural gas retreats - Oil futures declined on Friday, with U.S. prices ending a streak of nine consecutive weekly gains -- the longest on record -- as rising domestic crude inventories, the potential for revived Iran nuclear talks, and a retreat by natural-gas futures dragged crude prices further away from multiyear highs.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together known as OPEC+, "reduced inventories to relatively low levels at a time when economic growth and oil demand were robust," he said. That, combined with the loss of oil production and refinery output in the U.S. due to Hurricane Ida, which reached the U.S. Gulf Coast in late August, tightened markets, he said. However, "it seems likely that even without renewed outbreaks of COVID, supply will outpace demand early in the New Year," For now, traders awaited the latest decision on oil production by OPEC+ at its meeting on Thursday. At its meeting in early October, the group decided to keep its current plan in place to gradually raise output each month by 400,000 barrels a day. On Friday, West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose 76 cents, or 0.9%, to $83.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark suffered a 0.2% weekly fall, ending a nine-week streak of gains, the longest ever for front-month contracts, based on records data back to April 1983, according to Dow Jones Market Data.For the month, WTI crude was up more than 11% after settling earlier this week at a more than seven-year high. December Brent crude , the global benchmark, tacked on 6 cents, or nearly 0.1%, at $84.38 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. The front-month contract, which expired at the end of the session, fell 1.3% for the week, but climbed 7.5% for the month. January Brent , the most actively traded contract, rose 6 cents, or almost 0.1%, to $83.72 a barrel."The sharp rise in U.S. crude oil stocks and the expectation of nuclear talks being resumed with Iran have temporarily eased concerns about supply to some extent, leading to profit-taking," . "This does nothing to change the tight market situation, however. The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude inventories rose 4.3 million barrels last week.Also Wednesday, Iran indicated that it plans to resume talks on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known as the Iran nuclear deal, which could pave the way for the removal of U.S. sanctions that were reimposed by the Trump administration after it pulled Washington out of the agreement in 2018.Futures for the petroleum products finished Friday on a mixed note, with the November contracts expiring at the end of the session. November gasoline added 1.1% to $2.462 a gallon, down 0.8% for the week, but up over 9% for the month. November heating oil fell 0.8% at $2.496 a gallon, ending 1.7% lower for the week, but notching a monthly climb of 6.6%.Despite the rise in overall U.S. crude inventories last week, supplies in Cushing, Okla., the delivery hub for Nymex futures, continued to fall and were on pace to empty tanks by the end of the year, analysts said.In other Nymex trading, natural-gas futures turned lower for the week after falling sharply Friday and Thursday on news Russian President Vladimir Putin told Gazprom to ship more natural-gas westward to European customers.It is weather that will determine the next move in natural gas "as a cold start to the winter draw season could see prices continue to grind higher on bullish supply concerns, while more moderate temperatures will see stockpiles continue to rebuild in the weeks ahead," said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.December natural gas lost 6.2% to $5.426 per million British thermal units, with front-month contract prices down 0.6% for the week, losing 7.5% for the month.

Crude Achieves 11% Monthly Gain As China Scrambles To Solve Its Energy Crunch - Yet more evidence that demand is outpacing global supply occurred on Friday as oil posted further gains as well as an 11 percent monthly gain – with analysts noting that even more demand recovery is ahead in the weeks and months ahead. West Texas Intermediate rose 76 cents to settle at $83.57 per barrel, while Brent for December settlement climbed 6 cents to $84.38 per barrel (the more active January contract added 6 cents to end the session at $83.72 per barrel). Pierre Breber, chief financial officer at Chevron Corp, pointed out that as commuting and air travel picks up, there's "strong demand across our products with more recovery expected" during the current quarter. Also, as analysts continue to debate the possibility that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies will increase output to lessen the severity of the expected energy crunch this winter, Chevron and Exxon Mobil Corp.'s better-than-expected earnings reported on Friday also suggested the possibility of increased output. Chevron in fact reported its highest quarterly profit in eight years, with net income of $6.11 billion, or $3.19 per share, compared with a loss of $207 million, or 12 cents per share, a year ago. But the majority opinion is that OPEC is the key to alleviating the crude shortages, and Bloomberg on Friday noted that "Behind closed doors an intense campaign is being waged to convince OPEC+ to speed up its output increases," with "the U.S., India, Japan, and other consuming countries are putting the strongest diplomatic pressure on the cartel in years." However, OPEC de facto leader Saudi Arabia has so far refused to comply, stating that its current monthly 400,000 barrel per day (bpd) additions are enough at a time when the pandemic is retreating but could experience flare-ups that would impact demand. This view was shared by Alexander Novak, deputy prime minister of Russia: he earlier told media, "Demand [for oil] can decline as there is still uncertainty." Still, even the height of the Delta variant did nothing to dent demand, which may be why China reportedly canvased independent and state oil refiners last week for solutions to its energy shortage, which is already causing diesel to be rationed ahead of winter. The National Development and Reform Commission asked questions such as whether refiners can raise processing rates to produce more fuel, whether they can import more diesel and gasoline, and if they can obtain crude at a reasonable price. China's crude stockpiles were at 919 million barrels as of October 24, or 59 percent of the nation's storage capacity.

 EIG shortlisted as possible buyer for Aramco gas pipelines - sources - (Reuters) – U.S.-based energy investor EIG has been shortlisted as a potential buyer of Saudi Aramco’s gas pipelines, part of a sale that could exceed $17 billion and is likely to be completed later this year, three sources familiar with the matter said.Aramco is looking to sell a significant minority stake in its gas pipelines, other sources have previously said.In addition to EIG, private equity firms such Apollo could also be potential buyers, two of the sources said.EIG, Aramco and Apollo did not immediately respond to requests from Reuters for comment.

11 killed, more than a dozen wounded in Iraq attack: report An attack in Iraq resulted in 11 dead and more than a dozen wounded, security sources told AFP. A local security source told AFP it is believed the Islamic State group attacked a village in eastern Iraq, killing 11 and injuring 13. Another source said the village was where many security service members lived. Both the sources told AFP most of the villagers were part of the Bani Tamim tribe. One of the sources stated the village has been secured and a search is out for those who attacked the village. The attack follows an Islamic State group bombing in Uganda that killed at least one person Saturday. Iraq said the group had been defeated in 2017 but a 2021 UN report stated there were 10,000 active Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria. Two other attacks by the Islamic State group occurred in Iraq in recent months, according to AFP. The country said earlier in October it had arrested the financial overseer of the Islamic State group, Sami Jasim.

Turkey extends Syria and Iraq military missions by two years --Turkey’s parliament has extended the military’s mandate to launch cross-border operations in Syria and Iraq by two more years. The motion was first approved in 2013 to support the international campaign against ISIL (ISIS) and has since been renewed annually. However, Tuesday’s decision marked the first time that the motion was extended by two years, giving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a longer mandate to pursue campaigns against Kurdish fighters in the restive region. It also marked the first time the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) voted against the measure, ahead of an important general election due by June 2023. “You don’t tell us what it is about. You say [it will be valid] for two years and tell us to vote for it. Why?” CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu asked Erdogan in an address to his party members in parliament. The CHP party voted against the deployment of Turkish forces in Iraq in 2003, but had otherwise backed Erdogan in his various international campaigns. The new motion allows the military to carry out cross-border operations against groups deemed by Ankara as “terrorist organisations”.

ISIS bride convicted in Germany of 'crimes against humanity' --A German court has convicted the wife of an ISIS fighter for "crimes against humanity and attempted war crimes" in the death of a 5-year-old Yazidi girl, The Washington Post reports.Jennifer Wenisch, a 30-year-old German citizen, has been sentenced to 10 years in jail after a Munich court ruled that she did not intervene when her husband left the girl chained in the desert heat to die of thirst, the Post said. Wenisch travelled to Syria in 2014 to join ISIS and later married Iraqi national and ISIS fighter Taha al-Jumailly. The Post reported that Wenisch and her husband bought the child and her mother as domestic slaves to take care of their house in Fallujah in 2015. After the child fell ill and wet the bed, Wenisch's husband chained her in the hot sun outside their home and left her to die of thirst. The child's mother testified at the trial for over 11 days and recalled being "forced to witness the child's death." Her husband is currently on trial in Frankfurt and is awaiting his own verdict, the BBC added.The court said Wenisch, as a member of ISIS, assisted in the "destruction of the Yazidi religion" and "enslavement of the Yazidi people."

Turkey threatens to expel US, NATO ambassadors - Relations between Turkey and several of its major NATO allies, including the United States, Germany and France, are close to the breaking point after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ordered the foreign ministry to declare 10 ambassadors to Turkey persona non grata. Erdoğan was thereby threatening to expel the ambassadors of Canada, France, Finland, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the United States. Most are NATO allies of Turkey. However, on October 18, their ambassadors had signed a joint statement titled “Statement on Four Years of Osman Kavala’s Detention.” Yesterday, the US Embassy in Turkey issued an official statement on Twitter to ease tensions. Retweeted by all other embassies, it stated: “In response to questions regarding the Statement of October 18, the United States notes that it maintains compliance with Article 41 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic relations.” This article specifies that ambassadors “have a duty not to interfere in the internal affairs” of the state where they work. Last night, after a cabinet meeting, Erdoğan also sought to ease tensions, declaring: “Our aim is not to cause a crisis but to protect the interests of our country. We believe they [ambassadors] will be more careful in their statements now. With the statement they made today, they turned back from slandering our judiciary.” Osman Kavala, owner of the Kavala Group, is a millionaire businessman. His companies reportedly have ties to NATO, the Turkish Armed Forces and the Istanbul Police Department. He participates in several foundations, including the Open Society Foundation of American-Hungarian billionaire George Soros. In their statement, the 10 ambassadors had declared: “The continuing delays in his trial, including by merging different cases and creating new ones after a previous acquittal, cast a shadow over respect for democracy, the rule of law and transparency in the Turkish judiciary system,” before adding that they “believe a just and speedy resolution to his case must be in line with Turkey’s international obligations and domestic laws. Noting the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights on the matter, we call for Turkey to secure his urgent release.”

Around the tracks: Vehicle makers lower annual forecasts amid parts shortage -A global semiconductor shortage affected vehicle makers over Q3 as they struggled to maintain production to meet firm demand. Makers such as Japan's Toyota Motor lowered its output by 400,000 vehicles over September and October, thereby also reducing its production forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2022, to 9 million vehicles from 9.30 million vehicles. Chip production hubs, such as those based in Malaysia, are slowly restoring output affected by the coronavirus, especially as the country lifted interstate and international travel restrictions for residents fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Despite attempts to restore manufacturing activity, the chip shortage is likely to remain well into 2022. Domestic vehicle makers took a hit in Q3 as makers such as General Motors, which saw sales of 446,997 vehicles in the US during the three-month period, down nearly one-third from the year before. Market sources foresee a drop in new car sales in Q4 even though local demand is strong, citing low inventory. In both July and August, passenger car registrations in the European Union fell after they posted growth from March to June amid the global semiconductor shortage. Year on year, July's new registrations dropped 23.2% to 823,949 units while August decreased 19.1% to reach 622,993 units. Amid the lower sales, the IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI stood at 58.6 in September, contracting from 61.4 in August and marking its lowest reading since February.

Global car industry to grind to a halt within weeks amid ‘catastrophic’ Chinese magnesium shortage - The world’s largest carmakers and other users of aluminium could be forced to halt production within weeks amid a “catastrophic” shortage of magnesium across Europe.Magnesium is a key material used in the production of aluminium alloys, which are used in everything from car parts to building materials and food packaging.China has a near-monopoly on global magnesium manufacturing, accounting for 87 per cent of production, but the Chinese government’s efforts to reduce domestic power consumption amid rising energy prices have slowed output to a trickle since September 20.In Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, the world’s main magnesium production hubs, 25 plants had to shut down and five further plants slashed production by 50 per cent as a result of the power cuts.Europe is expected to run out of magnesium stockpiles by the end of November.On Friday, a group of 12 European industry associations representing cars, metals, packaging and other sectors issued a joint statement warning of the “catastrophic impact” of the production cuts, which they said had already resulted in an “international supply crisis of unprecedented magnitude”.The statement called for urgent action from the EU Commission and national governments to work with China to stave off the “imminent risk of Europe-wide production shutdowns”.“Without urgent action by the European Union, this issue, if not resolved, threatens thousands of businesses across Europe, their entire supply chains and the millions of jobs that rely on them,” the letter said. The Financial Times reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned her fellow leaders at their summit in Brussels on Thursday about the potential crisis unless China restarts its magnesium smelters.Diplomats told the paper her concerns were echoed by Prime Minister Andrej Babis of the Czech Republic, which also has a large auto industry.“We are raising this issue with our Chinese counterparts in order to address immediate shortages and are assessing long-term solutions to tackle this strategic dependency,” the European Commission said in a statement.Car manufacturers have already been hit with delays this year due to a shortage of semiconductors, but the focus is now shifting to magnesium. “A magnesium shortage could trigger a shortage of [usable] aluminium, which in turn could also hit car production,” BofA Securities analysts told clients last week, according to the Financial Times. “We stress at this point that such a scenario is not yet included in our estimates. The issue has just emerged and no carmaker has yet warned about it.”

Loonie Soars After Bank of Canada Ends QE Early, Accelerates Rate Hike Timing To Mid-2022 --While nobody expected the Bank of Canada to hike rates today despite soaring inflation, the BOC did surprise most most traders when it announced it is ending its bond buying stimulus program, and accelerated the potential timing of future interest rate increases amid worries that supply disruptions are driving up inflation. In a policy statement on Wednesday, Canadian central bankers led by Governor Tiff Macklem announced they would stop growing holdings of Canadian government bonds, ending a quantitative easing program that has poured hundreds of billions into the financial system since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, to wit: "The Bank is ending quantitative easing (QE) and moving into the reinvestment phase, during which it will purchase Government of Canada bonds solely to replace maturing bonds." Then again, one look at the BOC's balance sheet makes one wonder just how long this QE halt will survive... The Bank of Canada will release details of how it will implement the “reinvestment phase’’ of bond purchases in a market notice at 10:30 a.m. That will be a situation where it acquires bonds only to offset maturities, keeping overall holdings and stimulus constant. Most recently, weekly bond purchases had been C$2 billion. BOC head Macklem will also provide more insight into his policy decision at an 11 a.m. press conference.In any case, the BOC also signaled it could be ready to hike borrowing costs as early as April, as supply constraints limit the economy’s ability to grow without fueling inflation. Macklem maintained his pledge not to raise the benchmark overnight policy rate until the recovery is complete, but officials now believe that will happen in the “middle quarters’’ of 2022, bringing it forward from the second half of next year as previously thought.

Europe scales back new bank capital proposal to boost recovery -The European Union plans to soften the blow to banks from new capital rules, arguing that an easier stance ensures lenders can keep funding the economy as it recovers from the shock of the pandemic. In its implementation of the global banking standards known as Basel III, the European Commission will include flexibility on several issues banks had lobbied for while stopping short of meeting the industry’s key demand of retaining significant freedom to assess the riskiness of their own loans, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg. On average, banks will see their capital requirements rise by less than previous predictions. Global regulators spent a decade after the financial crisis forcing banks to boost their equity reserves to avoid a repeat of the 2008 credit crunch and the ensuing bailouts by taxpayers. European lenders still face a bigger jump in required capital levels than their more profitable U.S. peers, as the full weight of the Basel accords finalized in 2017 is phased in by the EU this decade.

Whistleblower tells UK lawmakers Facebook worsens online hate - Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen told British lawmakers Monday the social media platform exacerbates online hate, with the company failing to allocate adequate resources to combat the issue. “Unquestionably, it’s making hate worse,” Haugen told a parliamentary committee. Her testimony follows an appearance before a Senate Commerce subcommittee earlier this month. Her United Kingdom appearance coincided with the publication of dozens of reports based on internal Facebook documents taken by Haugen before she left the company. During Monday’s committee meeting in the U.K., Haugen underscored accusations that Facebook doesn’t prioritize safety by referencing the company’s plans to ramp up hiring for its “metaverse.” Facebook said last week it is planning to hire up to 10,000 workers in Europe to build the plan for the virtual and augmented reality realm. “I was like, ‘Wow, do you know what we could have done with safety if we had 10,000 more engineers?’ It would be amazing,” she said. Haugen worked on Facebook’s civic integrity team. She’s previously said the company decided to dissolve the team after the 2020 election, before the deadly riot at the Capitol that was based around misinformation about the election results. Facebook has pushed back on the claim, stating it “did not disband Civic Integrity,” but rather “integrated it into a larger Central Integrity Team.”

 Re-Imposing COVID Restrictions Would Cost UK Up To £18 Billion -Boris Johnson has been warned that any move to re-impose COVID restrictions would last until at least March 2022 and would cost the economy up to £18 billion pounds. Public health technocrats, leftists and the media have been fearmongering about rising case numbers over the last week in an effort to pressure the government into putting measures, including mask mandates and ‘work from home’ orders, back into place. This despite the fact that around half of the recorded cases are as a result of children returning to school and being mass tested. Although COVID cases have dropped over the past four days, alarmists are still trying to lobby for new restrictions. A report compiled by the Cabinet Office’s COVID-19 task force and the Treasury warns the British Prime Minister that any ‘Plan B’ to bring back measures would last until at least March 2022. “An internal Treasury impact assessment seen by Playbook warned that moving to Plan B would cost the economy between £11 billion and £18 billion in the period up until March 2022 — or more than £800 million per week. The document warns the main hit will be on businesses as millions of people go back to working from home.” The analysis also found that introducing vaccine passports would only cut transmission of the virus by 1-5 per cent but would cost businesses in the events sector between £1.4 billion and £2.3 billion.

“Want to See a Modern Country Commit Suicide? Take a Hard Look at Britain” - by Yves SmithThe title above comes from a post by the consultant and writer Umair Haque, on post-Brexit Britain as a failing state. And as an aside, I miss the days of the old econoblogopshere, where a piece substantially about another writer’s post would often elicit friendly back-and-forth with the author and other interested bloggers, as well upon occasion, acrimonious jousts. But everyone wound up better informed from these exchanges.Now before those of you on the other side of the pond get all riled up, this website has pointed often to the many indicators of America’s decline, such as decline across the board on social welfare indicators, such as lifespan, childhood poverty, percentage imprisoned, births out of wedlock, and our appalling brought-to-you-by-Big-Pharma opioid crisis. We’re slipped well down in global rankings of average height, a result of declining nutritions. And even our average educational attainment is illusory. We have very high levels among older age groups. It’s collapsed among the young…thanks to higher education price gouging.But what is happening in the UK is instructive, and may be predictive for the US. The UK is further down the neoliberal path than we are in terms of the decay of its once-vaunted civil service, the privatization of government functions, and the hollowing out of industry.We predicted that Brexit would result in a 10% reduction in UK standards of living, measured as real GDP per capita, in ten years. Brexit is eating slowly through already weak British institutions, like termites boring into an already-rotting foundation. And the damage is accelerating. Brits are much tougher than Americans, but the underplaying of how bad things are getting is more likely due to many businesses having been cowed by the Government into quiet acquiescence. We wondered why more companies weren’t either complaining to the press and to their MPs about the destructive way Brexit was being implemented, such as Boris Johnson opting for the hardest of hard Brexit, and rejecting a one-year extension of the transition period, which would have allowed exporters and importers more time to prepare. We were told that word had gone out that anyone who nay-sayed the Government would be punished. Sounds awfully Mafia-like for Oxbridge twats, but still… First to Haque, then some additional sightings. His entire piece is very much worth reading, butthis is the guts of his argument: Get this: Britain now has Potemkin supermarkets. Brits can’t get food…. so supermarkets have resorted to putting cardboard pictures of food on the shelves….Why on earth can’t Britain get…food? I’m sure you’ve already guessed the answer: Brexit. Let’s keep going with what a breathtaking disaster Brexit has made of Britain.If you think that pic’s bad, click this one. That’s a giant…sea…of raw sewage, aka sh*t. Why is it floating in the waterway? Because recently Britain’s conservative MPs decided to make it perfectly OK to dump raw sewage in rivers and creeks and lakes and the ocean. Why did they do that? Probably because they can’t get the chemicals needed to purify water anymore…because they come from (wait for it) Europe….Shall we keep going. Doctors in Britain still can’t run blood tests properly. Why not? Because they can’t enough vials — the country’s run short. But what exactly can a doctor do without running blood tests? Not much. Why did Britain run out of blood vials?Because of Brexit, of course. Which has made importing things somewhere from incredibly difficult to practically impossible.Let’s stop and take stock. Brits can’t get food. Raw sewage floats down rivers because the chemicals needed to treat water are in short supply. Doctors can’t run blood tests. I’ve chosen those three examples for a reason. Those are three of the most basic goods and services in society: food, water, healthcare.Let me put that in more formal terms: Brits are living through a catastrophic plunge in living standards. It’s the kind of catastrophic plunge which has little modern parallel. Cardboard cutouts of food? Not being able to treat water? You’d have to go back to the Weimar Republic to encounter such levels of ruin. In modernity, the only remotely close parallel is the debt crises that Latin American and Asian countries used to suffer — which caused massive shutdowns in basic public services, and led to failed systems for basics, just like Britain’s experiencing now.