Can the Federal Reserve stamp out US inflation without causing a recession? In a speech delivered less than a week after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018, chair Jay Powell acknowledged the historic challenge confronting the US central bank: tame the highest inflation in 40 years without causing a “hard landing” with painful job losses and a sharp economic contraction.“No one expects that bringing about a soft landing will be straightforward in the current context,” he cautioned last month. “Monetary policy is often said to be a blunt instrument, not capable of surgical precision.”Powell punctuated his warnings with optimism about the US economy’s ability to handle tighter monetary policy, but his comments underscore just how difficult the task ahead will be for the central bank as it charts a new course after two years of unprecedented support.He also poured fuel on an intensifying debate over the magnitude of the collateral damage from rate rises on the US economy. “Recession risks are no doubt elevated,” . “In terms of addressing inflationary concerns, the Fed is facing the biggest challenge it has faced in decades.” Fears the Fed will struggle to moderate inflation while simultaneously sustaining an economic expansion have been stoked by the central bank’s spotty record in successfully engineering a slowdown without causing unintended economic harm. In six of the past eight campaigns to rein in inflation since the 1970s, when the Fed raised interest rates to or above a “neutral” rate that neither aids nor constrains growth, a recession followed soon after, Even before the coronavirus pandemic hammered businesses and consumers, the economy was already slowing down, Perli said, as borrowing costs crimped demand for housing and other big-ticket items and businesses were forced to rethink hiring plans. Compounding concerns is the enormity of the inflation problem the Fed must now grapple with, which intensified in March as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. New Covid-19 lockdowns in China that have further gummed up supply chains also risk pushing prices higher. “There’s generally a narrow path for achieving a soft landing, and the path looks extraordinarily narrow now given how far the economy is away from the Fed’s targets and how far policy is away from neutral at the moment,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, who forecasts a recession in 2023. For most of past year, the Fed advocated a gradual scaling back of the pandemic stimulus it injected into the economy on the assumption that inflation would be “transitory” and moderate over time. But as price pressures ballooned and spilled into a broad range of sectors, the Fed was forced to pivot, signalling in recent months increasingly aggressive policy that economists fear could go overboard.“When you wait too long and you tighten aggressively, then you could hurt the people that are being hurt most by high prices,” The Fed is now expected to implement at least one half-point interest rate increase this year — a tool it has not used in more than two decades — as part of its efforts to bring the benchmark policy rate closer to neutral, which officials estimate to be roughly 2.4 per cent. It will also soon begin rapidly reducing the size of its $9tn balance sheet at an expected pace of up to $95bn a month.Not all economists believe a recession is a foregone conclusion, however. Like Powell, other top officials maintain confidence in the Fed’s ability to execute a soft landing.Lael Brainard, a governor tapped to be the next vice-chair, on Tuesday said the strength of the labour market, coupled with “significant underlying economic momentum”, bodes well for such an outcome.A shift in consumer spending away from goods and back into services as well as the waning of pandemic-era fiscal stimulus are also expected to take the heat off inflation, said Julia Coronado, a former Fed economist now at MacroPolicy Perspectives. She said the US central bank was “not doing all the work here”.
No end in sight for spiking prices? Enter the ‘peak inflation’ crowd - Consumer prices have soared to their highest level in four decades, but if some of the world’s largest banks are calling it right, the inflation fever that has gripped the country could be breaking. In recent days, economic forecasters at Deutsche Bank, UBS and Bank of America, among others, have said that the March inflation number — an 8.5 percent surge over last year — may be the worst of it. The predictions of “peak inflation” could comfort the White House, which has struggled under the political fallout of the consumer price hikes and faces the potential loss of Congress in this year’s elections. Republicans are trying to pin the dismal numbers on Democrats, and they may have a winning issue: Voters, whose paycheck gains are mostly being wiped out by inflation, have consistently told pollsters that price increases are a top concern and given President Joe Biden low marks for his handling of the economy. Among the banks’ reasons for optimism: Used car prices, which propelled much of the inflation last year, have begun to fall. Supply chain snags should finally fade as the post-Covid economy develops, they say. And the Federal Reserve is poised to aggressively tackle the issue by jacking up interest rates in the coming months. “Barring further severe disruptions, the March release is likely to be the peak in terms of year-over-year rates for both headline and core given that the base effects from last year’s surge in used car prices will begin rolling off in the April data,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note to clients this week. Headline inflation refers to all price increases, while the core number excludes volatile food and energy costs. Skeptics say we’ve seen this movie before. When inflation started raging last year, both Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Biden played down the phenomenon as “transitory.” That wasn’t the case. The persistence of the virus pandemic, Russia’s shocking attack on Ukraine, and a still gaping mismatch between available workers and open jobs have continued to boost prices on everything from housing to food and fuel, stoking uncertainty about the future. Oil surged after the inflation numbers were released Tuesday, and housing costs haven’t even fully worked their way into the data. “We have been at this juncture before where subtle shifts within the data make it appear that the level of inflation has reached its peak for the cycle only to keep marching higher,” . “Going forward, the greater concern is really around how entrenched inflation has become as Americans continue to worry about rising prices.” The March figure was the highest since the early days of Ronald Reagan’s administration when then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker and the central bank engaged in a scorched earth rate-hike campaign to break inflation during the oil-price shock years, even though it meant sparking a long, painful recession. Today’s grim inflation numbers have Democrats and their interest groups and economists worried that ever-rising prices will cost them both houses of Congress.
Quarles: Fed needs vice chair to 'take the heat' on divisive policies --With the prospect of adding a new vice chair for supervision this year growing more remote by the day, the Federal Reserve Board could soon find itself in an undesirable position: having to wade into politically choppy waters.Randal Quarles, the first — and thus far only — person to hold the title of vice chair for supervision, said the role serves as a first line of defense for the rest of the Fed board when it comes to responsibility for the Fed's regulatory policy. Without someone serving in that role, any partisan political attacks that arise from regulatory choices the Fed makes fall on the board more broadly rather than on the vice chair for supervision.“It's one of the main roles of this job,” Quarles told American Banker in an interview. “The Fed has always had these responsibilities, it's always had an operational framework for [supervision and regulation], but as these issues have become less purely technical and become much more partisan, there needs to be a point person who has this specific expertise on the Fed board and the political imprimatur to take the heat" on controversial issues.
Biden will nominate Michael Barr as Fed’s banking supervisor - President Joe Biden will nominate Michael Barr, a Treasury Department veteran and one of the architects of the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, as the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision. “Michael brings the expertise and experience necessary for this important position at a critical time for our economy and families across the country,” Biden said in a statement released Friday by the White House. Barr’s nomination must be approved by the Senate. The president settled on Barr this week, according to people familiar with the matter. Sarah Bloom Raskin, his previous choice, withdrew from consideration on March 15 after it became clear she didn’t have the votes for confirmation in the evenly divided Senate.
Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of April 10th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 9.5% from the same day in 2019 (90.5% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel has been moving sideways over the last month, off about 10% from 2019. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through April 9, 2022. Dining was mostly moving sideways but declined during the winter wave of COVID and is now increasing. The 7-day average for the US is down 1% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through April 7th. Movie ticket sales were at $101 million last week, down about 52% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through April 2nd. The occupancy rate was down 6.4% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is just below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through April 9th for the United States and several selected cities. All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 125% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 39% of normal. This data is through Friday, April 8th.
<Financial warfare: will there be a backlash against the dollar? | Financial Times --This is the second part of a series on the weaponisation of finance. Two weeks after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa held a phone call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. On the same day, European leaders meeting in Versailles warned democracy itself was at stake. Yet Ramaphosa struck a very different tone. “Thanking His Excellency President Vladimir Putin for taking my call today, so I could gain an understanding of the situation that was unfolding between Russia and Ukraine,” he wrote on Twitter. Ramaphosa, who has blamed Nato expansion for the war, said Putin “appreciated our balanced approach”. The South African president is not alone in pursuing a “balanced” position to the war. “We will not take sides. We will continue being neutral and help with whatever is possible,” Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro said after Russia invaded Ukraine. Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador also declined to join the sanctions being imposed on Russia. “We are not going to take any sort of economic reprisal because we want to have good relations with all the governments in the world,” he said. And, then, there is China: an increasingly close ally of Russia. The world’s second-largest economy has scrupulously declined to criticise the invasion of Ukraine. It might seem that most of the world is united in condemnation of the war in Ukraine, but while there is a western-led coalition against Russia, there is no global coalition. This could have important implications for the future of international finance as countries around the world respond to the dramatic move by the US and its allies to freeze Russia’s foreign currency reserves. “The sanctions have been earth-shattering,” admits John Smith, who used to be the leading sanctions official at the US Treasury department and now co-heads the national security practice at Morrison & Foerster, a law firm. “They’ve broken the mould.” The power of the sanctions on Russia is based on the dominance of the US dollar, which is the most widely-used currency in trade, financial transactions and central bank reserves. Yet by explicitly weaponising the dollar in this way, the US and its allies risk provoking a backlash that could undermine the US currency and sunder the global financial system into rival blocks that could leave everyone worse off.
Are we witnessing the beginning of de-dollarization? -- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not comparable to any other invasion in history due to its geoeconomic significance. Both Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of commodities such as crude, natural gas, iron and steel, wheat, and edible oils that have a direct impact on the inflation levels in major world economies. While economists were concerned about a significant drop in consumption levels arising from COVID-19-related lockdowns and suppression of demand sending crude prices to $0 per barrel two years ago, now they are concerned about the exact opposite — skyrocketing crude prices touching more than $130 per barrel and natural gas hitting $5.7 per metric million British thermal units (MMBtu). There were also price increases on wheat, edible oils and other commodities with the potential to directly impact the average Joe not just in the U.S. and Western world but in the global south, where inflation shocks are even more acute. Adding fuel to fire, the U.S. chose the worst possible weapon to deter Russia — economic sanctions. By sanctioning Russia, the world’s third-largest producer of crude and largest supplier of wheat, the U.S. has set off dynamite that could burst into a recession in the next six months, as several economists have predicted. However, the long-term challenge for the U.S. will be to keep the crown on the U.S. dollar’s head as the leading global reserve/fiat currency. The unilateral sanctions of the West against Russia had the unintended consequence of raising inflation levels in Europe, East Africa and South Asia, which were the largest importers of Russian wheat and energy. Given that seeking alternatives and establishing substitute supply chains takes time and capital, most economies are establishing different mechanisms to circumvent the sanctions. These range from using barter trade to trading in their own currencies over the dollar. The latter is igniting a debate on the use of the dollar for global trade. Not necessarily among America’s steadfast allies but more so with countries that are on the fence about America’s global interventions. Countries such as Brazil, China, South Africa and India that are part of the BRICS grouping make up more than 24 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP) and 16 percent of world trade. Similarly, in Africa, which makes up 3 percent of global GDP and is predicted to grow six times in size by 2050, many countries will likely reconsider dollar trade. Developing nations and emerging markets economies cannot easily absorb inflation shocks. In a few of these economies, rising inflation levels could lead to a balance of payment crisis and even the toppling of their respective governments. Hence, it is natural for these economies to seek ways to circumvent America’s sanctions. Even Europe, one that is part of the Western alliance, has sought ruble-euro trade arrangements to prevent any disruptions in Russian gas supply. From Europe’s standpoint, in particular from Italy’s and Germany’s, Russian gas keeps factories running and homes lit. Without Russian gas, their economies would come to a standstill. Therefore, it is with an urgency that they establish alternative mechanisms.
10yr-3mo Term Spreads and Probit Model Recession Forecasts: Germany, UK, Canada vs. US by Menzie Chinn - For the US, Germany, UK and Canada:
- Figure 1: Estimated probability of recession for indicated months based on 10 year-3 month spread lagged 12 months for US (black), Germany (brown), UK (green) and Canada (red). Recession probability from probit model. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, OECD, NBER, and author’s calculations. Of course, most of the concern has arisen due to inversion of the 10yr-2yr spread (e.g., Deutsche Bank) As noted in Chinn and Kucko (2015), the 10yr-3mo spread has had more predictive power. However, one can see the divergence in predictions in the US case in Figure 2 below (compared against Germany, UK, and Canada).
- Figure 2: Estimated probability of recession for indicated months based on 10 year-3 month Treasury spread lagged 12 months US (blue), for 10 year-2 year spread (brown). Recession probability from probit model. NBER defined recession dates peak-to-trough shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, OECD, NBER, and author’s calculations.I didn’t have ready access to 2 year government bond yields for the other three countries (snapshot for several G-20 countries as of March, see here), so here are the estimates based on 10 year-3 month spreads. Keep in mind, Chinn and Kucko (2015) find the spread works well for US and Germany in the 1990’s and 2000’s, less well for the other countries examined.
- Figure 3: Estimated probability of recession for indicated months based on 10 year-3 month spread lagged 12 months for Germany (blue). 3 month yield is interbank rate. Recession probability from probit model. ECRI defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: OECD via FRED, ECRI, and author’s calculations.
- Figure 4: Estimated probability of recession for indicated months based on 10 year-3 month spread lagged 12 months for United Kingdom (blue). 3 month yield is interbank rate. Recession probability from probit model. ECRI defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: OECD via FRED, ECRI, and author’s calculations
- Figure 5: Estimated probability of recession for indicated months based on 10 year-3 month spread lagged 12 months for Canada (blue). 3 month yield is interbank rate. Recession probability from probit model. ECRI defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: OECD via FRED, ECRI, and author’s calculations.
How well do the models fit? One can see that depending on the threshold used, the German model misses one recent recession (i.e., false negative), and UK model would have given one false positive. And the Canadian model would have signalled the last two recessions with only a very low threshold. The McFadden pseudo-R-squareds are 0.21, 0.33, and 0.37 for Germany, UK, and Canada respectively. The corresponding figure for the US is 0.26, 1960-2022M03 (0.23 for 10yr-2yr, 1976M06-2022M03).While the current fad is to focus on the 10yr-2yr spread (for the US, see discussion here), Engstrom and Sharpe (March 2022) argue this spread has no incremental predictive power over the near term forward spread (6 month forward 3 month yield minus 3 month yield). Miller (2019) examines many combinations of spreads, and finds for the 1984-2018 period, the highest AUROC (ratio of predicted positives to true positives) at the 12 month horizon is the 10yr-Fed funds and 5yr-Fed funds, followed closely by the10yr-3mo spread.
Manchin on inflation: Biden administration ‘failed to act fast enough’ -Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) blamed the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve for rising inflation on Tuesday after Labor Department data found that inflation had increased by 8.5 percent over the past 12 months. “The Federal Reserve and the Administration failed to act fast enough, and today’s data is a snapshot in time of the consequences being felt across the country,” Manchin said in a statement. “Instead of acting boldly, our elected leaders and the Federal Reserve continue to respond with half-measures and rhetorical failures searching for where to lay the blame. The American people deserve the truth about why record inflation is happening and what must be done to control it,” he added.The Labor Department said on Tuesday that its consumer price index, which tracks inflation,increased by 1.2 percent in March and 8.5 percent over the past 12 months. Manchin called the data a “chilling story about how these taxes on Americans are completely out of control,” and one that is eating away at incomes and savings.Food prices rose 8.8 percent over the past 12 months and 1 percent in March alone, while gasoline prices were up 48 percent on the year after an 18.3 percent increase in March, according to the Labor Department data. The Labor Department figures are bad news for Democrats and Biden ahead of this fall’s midterm elections. Republicans have seized on rising prices to argue for a change in leadership.Manchin has been raising concerns about inflation for months, but his remarks may be used by the GOP in attacks on Democrats.Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), the top Republican on the Budget Committee, said that “if you want inflation to go down, Americans will have to change leadership.” “If the Biden administration truly wants to find the cause of record high inflation, all they have to do is look in the mirror. These dramatic, record-setting increases in inflation weren’t caused by Vladimir Putin, but by the bad choices of President Biden and the Democrats who control Congress,” he said. Manchin’s statement is also another red flag for nascent Democratic hopes of reviving a sweeping social and climate spending bill heading toward the summer by paring it down to something that the White House and Senate Democrats hope their red-state colleagues could support. Though inflation was already increasing, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has helped fuel an increase in prices on a range of items and services including food, gasoline and shelter. But the March data also found prices increasing broadly and in areas relatively insulated from the war.The White House has blamed the increased cost, particularly on gasoline and energy prices, on Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling it “Putin’s price hike.” Manchin has long pointed to inflation as one of his primary concerns about passing a larger Build Back Better package.
The new White House rule: Do not talk about Joe Manchin -The fate of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda may hinge on his administration’s ability to do one simple thing: Shut up. Four months after Biden’s Build Back Better plan collapsed amid a bitter back-and-forth with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), the White House is taking a final shot at resuscitating its social spending bill — and this time it’s vowing a sharply different approach to the negotiations. Top Biden officials are keeping their ambitions vague. They’re steering clear of firm deadlines. Most importantly, they’re trying as hard as possible to just not talk about it at all. “I would quite explicitly not comment on the conversations that are happening,” Brian Deese, Biden’s National Economic Council director, told reporters at a recent event hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. “I don’t think that has served anyone particularly well.” The administration-wide gag order imposed over the last several weeks is a marked shift from earlier efforts to hype Biden’s expansive policy vision — and a tacit acknowledgment that the White House has learned its lesson. The administration and its allies spent months last year trying to pressure Manchin into supporting a $1.7 trillion climate and social spending package, only to see the negotiations blow up in December. Now Manchin is signaling he’s willing to deal again, and Democrats are all but begging him to write the legislation himself. “This is really up to Joe,” one person familiar with the party dynamics said of senior Democrats’ attitude. “It’s basically going to be the Manchin reconciliation bill when all is said and done.”
Political brawl looms over nuclear cruise missile Biden plans to scrap -- A rare victory for arms control advocates in President Joe Biden’s nuclear plans will be clawed back if defense hawks on Capitol Hill have their way in the coming months. A fight is already brewing in Congress over the Biden administration’s decision to defund a new nuclear-tipped sea-launched cruise missile authorized by former President Donald Trump. Republicans are opposing the move, arguing Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Mark Milley and other top officers’ endorsement of the program shows that Biden is defying the advice of top military commanders on U.S. nuclear deterrence. “One way or another, we need to overturn that decision,” Rep. Doug Lamborn of Colorado told POLITICO. Lamborn is the top Republican on the House Armed Services Strategic Forces panel, which oversees the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Whether to continue funding for the program or to allow the administration to shutter it is expected to feature prominently in a debate over the size and scope of the nuclear arsenal when the House and Senate Armed Services Committees consider their annual defense policy bills. If Congress injects funding to keep the nuclear cruise missile alive, it would be yet another blow to advocates who had high hopes for restrained nuclear policy and defense spending with Biden in the White House. The Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2021 that the new cruise missile and its warhead would cost $10 billion through 2030, though the nonpartisan scorekeeper conceded the figure is “highly uncertain.”M
Haley says Biden should ‘put the hammer’ on Germany over Russian energy imports --Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley urged the Biden administration to ramp up pressure on Germany over its reliance on Russian energy during an interview with Fox News on Wednesday. “I think that it’s time to really put the hammer on Germany and say, ‘you know what? You got us into this by getting all cozy with Russia,’” Haley said on “The Guy Benson Show.”She also called for the Biden administration to directly sanction Russian energy companies.Shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany did halt the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, however it continues to rely heavily on Russia for domestic energy needs.Germany has also been more hesitant than other U.S. allies to back stiff sanctions against Moscow, initially opposing blocking Russia from the SWIFT international payments system.Haley said there is more Germany — along with the rest of Europe — should be doing to end dependence on Russian oil and natural gas.“They could do it, we could help them do it, we should be doubling down on that,” she said.
America Keeps Eyepoking India and China for Failing to Fall into Line on Russia; Arrogance Looking More and More Like Impotence by Yves Smith I’m using an OilPrice post, India’s Russian Dealings Have Left Biden’s Geopolitical Oil Strategy In Tatters, as a point of departure for a mini-rant about the arrogance and rank incompetence of America’s elites, as demonstrated by our predictably unsuccessful efforts to bully both China and India into saying bad things about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and backing the US, most importantly by joining its sanctions war. I am at a loss to understand why the US thinks throwing more force behind a clearly failed diplomatic strategy is a bright idea. Pushing China has simply made it more obvious and easier to explain to interested audiences (many!) why the US needs to stop trying to dictate the policies of other countries, most of all really big ones with nukes.As for India, the US has been at best a fair weather friend. It is particularly insulting for the US to carry on to India about democratic values when we engage in nation-breaking and have counted autocrats like the Saudi royals and a very long revolving door list of authoritarians (past stars include Manuel Noreiga, Honsai Mubarak, Rwanda’s Paul Kagame, Ethiopia’s Hailemariam Desalegn) as allies.With both countries, the US has tried at least twice (three times with China if you count the recent China-EU teleconference with Xi) to get China to side with the West against Russia, pushing China into “What about ‘no’ don’t you understand?” terrain. Rather than hewing to the convention of having summits only after groundwork was laid so that at least nothing visibly bad happens, Team Biden set out to pick a fight with China at their first get together, in Alaska in March 2021, with the US springing new sanctions on China the day before the session.This humble blog was featuring at least once a week examples of Biden Administration continuing its eyepoking of China in our Links before the war broke out.Then in March, Jake Sullivan was set to meet with Yang Jiechi in Rome and threatened China with sanctions. The pretext was disinformation in the form of a Financial Times story claiming that Russia had asked to buy weapons from China (this was clearly absurd because by the time the war had started would be way too late; Russia would have needed to procure and integrate equipment months prior).1 Needless to say, Yang didn’t give any ground.So not taking no as an answer, Biden had the cheek to call Xi that very same week and ask for China’s help. Xi effectively said this wasn’t his problem: “He who puts the bell on the tiger is the one to take it off.” Biden also said he very much wanted better relations with China and gave lip service to the one-China policy in the chat. That allowed Xi to say he took that statement very seriously: What about all these American officials who were promoting a “wrong understanding” about Taiwan?EU leaders and Xi then had a regularly scheduled EU-China teleconference. Chinese officials had signaled before the meeting that Xi was interested in EU-China relations, not Ukraine, so of course the EU officials started the conversation off with Ukraine. Xi again deflected the Western pressure. I’m not double checking the dates, but my recollection is that it was shortly after the EU-Xi talk that the US announced new sanctions against China, mainly against officials accused of oppressing Uighurs. And we’ve just had the off the charts provocation of Nancy Pelosi, third in line to become President, going to Taiwan. Recall that trip has been postponed rather than cancelled. China has stated that there will be consequences if that trip happens. Could China stop it with a pre-emptive air strike, talking out all of Taiwan’s air traffic control and putting nice big holes in all the runways international planes use? Is it possible for China to jam air traffic control in Taiwan and the handoff towers next out on her route? Or would Chinese planes dare to dog Pelosi’s and prevent it from landing as planned? With India, the US keep acting as if they need us when India clearly needs Russian fertilizer and fuel more. And as a sometimes ally, we in theory should at least make a show of being respectful to India, when we instead keep bludgeoning and bullying them. That’s hard to take generally, but even more so given the presumed and probably actual colonial/racist attitudes.
Putin claims Russia ‘had no other choice’ except to invade Ukraine - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday said his country “had no other choice” but to invade Ukraine, calling it “the right decision.” The isolated Russian leader’s remarks, which were translated by the state-owned media outlet RT, were described as discussing the “ongoing military operations in Ukraine,” which Putin called an “an obvious thing, it was unavoidable, the only question was one of timing.”Putin reiterated his claims that Russia’s invasion was to “help people, saving them from Nazism,” a propaganda argument employed to invoke the former Soviet Union’s military victories in World War II. Russia’s attacks on Ukraine are allegedly responsible for destroying a Holocaust memorial site in Kyiv, and global leaders have accused Russian forces of carrying out war crimes, including targeting civilians for extrajudicial killings and raping both women and children. Putin, in his remarks reported by RT, said “we have no doubts [our] goals will be achieved. We are not going to be isolated,” referring to the U.S.-led campaign of global sanctions.
Biden's oil and gas policy falls short on climate goals, House Democrats say - Democrats on the U.S. House Natural Resources Committee on Thursday encouraged President Joe Biden to take stronger action to limit oil and gas production, while Republicans said reducing domestic production would only increase global emissions from overseas suppliers. In a hearing less than a week after the U.S. Interior Department released a report that called for fiscal updates to the federal oil and gas leasing programs but offered little to lessen the industry’s climate impacts, Democrats said the administration left a critical gap that would hamper efforts to meet Biden’s climate commitments. Rep. Alan Lowenthal, a California Democrat who chairs the Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee, said the proposals, which include raising rates for royalties and bonding, were welcome but insufficient. “These changes are long overdue,” Lowenthal said. “But a glaring omission of the report was any discussion on the emissions that result from oil and gas drilling on public lands. In my view, this was a missed opportunity, and it’s a critical issue that we must address.” Lowenthal said the report’s recommendations were “minor reforms” that would not put the U.S. on a path to meeting its climate pledges. He and full committee Chairman Raúl Grijalva, (D-Ariz.), said the administration could use its existing authority to reduce emissions more significantly from federal lands. Environmental activists have asked Biden to permanently ban oil and gas leasing on federal lands, saying it was a necessary step to reach the administration’s lofty climate goals. “I cannot help but feel misled, disheartened and disappointed when I witness actions such as the Department of Interior taking steps to lease more public lands to oil and gas,” Jade Begay, the climate justice campaign director with the Native American advocacy group NDN Collective and a member of the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council, testified at the hearing.
Biden's shift from climate to oil rattles greens --- President Joe Biden’s focus on trying to ease the pain at the gas pump has left his green supporters dispirited and divided over whether his bold promises to drive a transition to clean energy and fight climate change may be slipping away. A year ago, environmentalists were ecstatic when Biden touted climate change as one of the top four issues for his administration, along with battling the pandemic, rebuilding the economy and fighting racism. Now, the White House is preoccupied with taming inflation and keeping the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his war in Ukraine — a conflict that helped drive U.S. retail gasoline prices to record levels above $4.30 a gallon last month. Green advocates are torn. Biden’s sagging poll numbers are an ominous sign for the upcoming elections that look likely to see Democrats lose control of Congress, and climate advocates understand that assuaging voters’ anxiety over inflation — and the energy prices stoking it — could improve their political outlook. But the strategy of pushing for oil companies to increase production, releasing barrels from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the newly announced boost for corn-based ethanol seem to show the administration scrambling for a strategy and undermining its ambitious goal to move off fossil fuels — a move that a U.N. scientific body said last week needed to begin happening by 2025. “It’s not even so much that I think the administration is recommitting to oil and gas, it’s that nobody can tell what they’re trying to do,” said Justin Guay, director of global climate strategy at the environmental group Sunrise Project. “They’re not telling a coherent story.” The pressure on Biden to respond to the immediate crisis was underscored Tuesday when the Labor Department said inflation jumped 8.5 percent in March from a year earlier— the biggest increase since December 1981. Energy prices surged by 18.3 percent in March and accounted for over half that increase. Some green advocates close to the White House see addressing that as the most urgent priority. David Kieve, president of Environmental Defense Fund Action, said Biden’s emphasis on taming gasoline prices and pocketbook issues was sound, and he credited the administration for not forgetting his longer-term climate promises in the process.
House climate committee hearing on efficiency delves into pipeline policy, gas bans, China and Putin -- The Biden administration must champion additional incentives to help improve energy efficiency, meet climate goals and ensure an equitable transition to a clean energy economy, advocates told lawmakers on Thursday during a hearing of the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis. Democrats are considering a slimmed-down version of the Build Back Better reconciliation package, which they previously failed to advance in the Senate. An energy-focused version could include efficiency tax credits and the bipartisan Hope for Homes Act, which would provide training for energy-saving retrofits for home builders and contractors. But the hearing ultimately shifted away from efficiency and towards global events, domestic gas policy and how to manage international foes like Russia and China."There's not a member of this committee that doesn't support energy efficiency. It's good for the consumer and it's good for the environment," Rep. Kelly Armstrong, R-N.D., said during Thursday's hearing. Armstrong then used his time to make the case for additional natural gas infrastructure and to oppose "mandates" that might force consumers to choose electric appliances over gas-powered versions. That opened the door for American Public Gas Association President and CEO Dave Schryver, a witness in the hearing, to make the case for greater inclusion of gas appliances in the Energy Star efficiency program, and for local governments to not ban new gas hookups. "If politicians force fuel switching on natural gas customers, those households will not only face higher energy bills but will also have to shoulder the additional cost of expensive new appliances and potential electrical system upgrades to support them," Schryver said. Alliance to Save Energy President Paula Glover and other witnesses, however, continued to press for greater electrification. Energy efficiency investments made since 1980 help consumers avoid approximately $800 billion per year in energy costs today, she said. "That is the power of efficiency. This is achieved by investments that secure the building envelope, equipment standards, building codes, building design, and establishing policies that prioritize efficiency as a primary part of U.S. domestic policy," Glover said. Glover asked lawmakers to extend the 25C tax credit to assist homeowners in purchasing energy efficiency equipment or making other energy-saving upgrades, along with the 45L credit for home builders who build more energy-efficient homes, and strengthen and expand the 179D deduction for efficiency improvements in commercial buildings. And the bipartisan Hope for Homes Act would help provide training and support to home building companies and stipends for contractors to undertake training and education about residential energy systems, Darnell Johnson, vice chair of the Building Performance Association and CEO and President of Urban Efficiency Group, told lawmakers. "To address climate change, America’s homes must use energy more efficiently." But Ranking Member Garret Graves, La., questioned why the United States would spend more to save energy and reduce emissions when other countries are not doing the same. He cited rising emissions in China, and fears that a lack of gas infrastructure in the U.S. could lead to dependence on Russian supplies. "How does the United States move forward with some of these actors like Russia and China and others who just don't care?" Graves asked.
Biden labels Russian atrocities in Ukraine 'genocide' - President Joe Biden on Tuesday for the first time labeled Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine genocide.Speaking in Menlo, Iowa, about his Build a Better America agenda and efforts to lower energy prices, the president said a family’s financial situation in the U.S. should not be dependent on another leader’s attacks “half a world away,” in remarks likely aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin.“Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide a half a world away,” Biden said.The president doubled down later Tuesday, telling reporters that his use of “genocide” was intentional.“It’s become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of being Ukrainian. The evidence is mounting. It looks different than last week,” the president said before departing Iowa. “More evidence is coming out, literally, of the horrible things that the Russians have done in Ukraine. And we’re gonna only learn more and more about the devastation, and we’ll let the lawyers decide internationally whether or not it qualifies, but it sure seems that way to me.”
Zelensky praises Biden after he says Putin committing genocide --Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised President Biden on Tuesday after the U.S. leader said Russian President Vladimir Putin is committing genocide in Ukraine.“True words of a true leader @POTUS. Calling things by their names is essential to stand up to evil. We are grateful for US assistance provided so far and we urgently need more heavy weapons to prevent further Russian atrocities,” Zelensky wrote on Twitter.The message came hours after Biden, while delivering remarks in Menlo, Iowa, accused Putin of committing genocide in Ukraine.“I’m doing everything within my power by executive orders to bring down the price and address the Putin price hike,” Biden said. “Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide half a world away.”The president later doubled down on his claim during an exchange with reporters but noted that his lawyers would ultimately determine if Putin is committing genocide in Ukraine.“It’s become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of being Ukrainian,” Biden said. “The evidence is mounting.”
Biden approval rating at lowest point in CBS News poll - President Biden’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point in the latest CBS News and YouGov poll. Biden’s approval rating ticked down to 42 percent in early April, according to the poll, whichCBS News said is its lowest yet. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they disapprove of the way Biden is handling his job as president. The president’s latest approval rating is down slightly from February and March, when 43 percent said they approved of how Biden was handling his job. In January and November, 44 percent gave Biden positive marks, and in August, his approval rating as tracked by CBS News and YouGov was 50 percent. By comparison, he had a 62 percent approval rating in March 2021. Respondents in the new survey gave the president the worst marks for his handling of inflation, which has skyrocketed in recent months and is affecting Americans at grocery stores and gas pumps. Thirty-one percent of respondents said they approve of the way Biden is handling inflation, while 69 percent said they disapprove of it. Biden also received low marks when it came to his handling of the economy generally. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they approve of his management of the economy, compared to 63 percent who said they disapprove. The president also saw low approval numbers on his handling of immigration and crime, with 38 percent and 39 percent giving him positive marks, respectively.
The Memo: Democrats face nightmare scenario, ‘biblical disaster’ --Democrats are facing a nightmare scenario with about six months to go before the midterm elections. Inflation, immigration, the war in Ukraine and the still-lingering COVID-19 pandemic make for a dreadful political atmosphere for President Biden’s party. The problems are compounded by Biden’s weak approval numbers and the historical pattern whereby a president’s party typically loses seats in the first midterms of his tenure. Some Democrats believe a turnaround is still possible, or at least that losses can be kept modest. But others, granted anonymity to speak candidly, sound a louder alarm. “I think this is going to be a biblical disaster,” said one such Democratic strategist, who did not wish to be named. “This is the reality we are in as Democrats and no one wants to face it.” In 1994, with Clinton in the White House, Democrats lost a net 54 House seats. In 2010, under Obama, they lost 63 seats. An increasingly gerrymandered Congress makes that kind of wipeout hard to see this year. But around Washington, virtually no one expects Democrats to retain their slim House majority. One useful point of comparison is 1982, when inflation was rampant as it is now and Republicans lost a net 26 House seats with President Reagan in the White House. The vulnerabilities for Biden’s party are clear and specific. New data released Tuesday showed inflation at 8.5 percent, the highest figure since 1981. On immigration, the Department of Homeland Security has said that it is preparing for an influx of as many as 18,000 immigrants per day later this year. The astronomical number could be reached late this summer, given that the administration is scheduled to abandon the use of Title 42 in late May. The controversial Trump-era measure had been used to deny entry during the pandemic to migrants, including asylum-seekers — purportedly on public health grounds. Biden is between a rock and a hard place on Title 42. It is widely seen on the left as an anti-migrant measure masquerading as a public health policy. But its proposed removal has drawn opposition from several Democratic senators in competitive races this fall, including Sens. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and Maggie Hassan (N.H.). Their resistance is testament to the political potency of immigration. Biden’s efforts aimed at rebuffing the Russian invasion of Ukraine have won widespread praise as he has galvanized a Western alliance against the Kremlin. But that praise has not translated into any kind of significant polling boost for the president. Ukraine, for all the heroics of its people, still faces deep disparities in military firepower against Russia. A long war of attrition could also prolong the economic pain for Americans, particularly when it comes to gas and grocery prices. As if all that were not enough, COVID-19 has killed almost 1 million Americans, inflicted economic and psychological harm, and transformed the contours of daily life. And it’s not over yet. Philadelphia announced on Monday that it would reimpose an indoor mask mandate as infections rise once again. In addition to all those factors, an internal debate is going on within Democratic ranks about whether the party’s messaging has gone awry, or whether the key problem is one of substance rather than spin. . Biden’s approval rating as of Tuesday was 42.2 percent, according to the weighted average maintained by data and polling site FiveThirtyEight. Many Democrats complain that their party’s message has lacked clarity and failed to connect with the realities of voters’ lives. They also fear that a prolonged period of Capitol Hill infighting over legislation late last year damaged the party’s fortunes.
Why the latest rise in COVID-19 cases is being treated differently - COVID-19 cases are showing signs of rising again, even as many Americans are eager to move on. Washington, D.C., has been hit with a string of high-profile cases in Congress and the administration, and cases in the city overall are on the rise. New York and other areas in the Northeast are also seeing increases, with Philadelphia announcing on Monday that it will reintroduce a requirement that people wear masks in indoor public places. But there are important ways that any coming spike in COVID-19 cases, fueled by a subvariant of omicron known as BA.2, is likely to be less damaging than previous surges, experts say. And that may lead the nation to treat a new rise in cases different. First, it is not clear how steep any spike will be. While there are now upticks in the Northeast, there are not yet signs of the massive spike that hit over the winter. That omicron variant-fueled spike already infected many people, helping provide them some immunity against the current outbreak, in addition to the immunity provided by vaccines and booster shots. Second, people who are vaccinated and boosted still have strong protection against severe illness, even if it is possible they will get a milder infection. A new treatment, the Pfizer pill known as Paxlovid, cuts the risk of hospitalization or death by about 90 percent for people who do get infected. That combination of vaccines, booster shots and treatments means that even if cases rise, the hope is that hospitalizations and deaths will not rise by as sharp a degree. The White House is counting on booster shots and treatments to fight any new increase for the moment, rather than blunter tools like mask mandates or business closures. “We don’t have to let it dictate our lives anymore,” Ashish Jha, the new White House COVID-19 response coordinator, said on MSNBC on Monday. “If you’re vaccinated, boosted, you’re going to be highly protected. We have a lot of therapy now that’s widely available now for people who are at all higher risk, so even if you have a breakthrough infection, you can get treatments. That means that the virus should not control our lives anymore.”
Media charlatan Ashish Jha takes the helm of Biden’s COVID-19 response team amid BA.2 surge - On Monday, Dr. Ashish Jha took over for multimillionaire Jeff Zients as the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, under conditions in which the Omicron BA.2 subvariant is now dominant across the US and is causing a new surge of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations in a growing number of states. Data from the New York Times shows that COVID-19 cases are rising in 26 states, Washington D.C. and two territories, while the nationwide seven-day average of daily new cases has increased by 3 percent in the past week to 31,105. The states with the largest increase in new cases include Rhode Island (up 68 percent), New Jersey (67 percent) and New York (up 60 percent in the past two weeks), as BA.2 became dominant in the Northeast two weeks ago. In New York, 1,060 people are now hospitalized due to COVID-19, up 27 percent from a week ago. Over the past three months, there has been a concerted, bipartisan effort to do away with all remaining mitigation measures to slow the spread of COVID-19, cover up data and restrict access to testing. Uninsured Americans no longer have access to free testing, which is now at its lowest level since July 2021. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the likely number of daily new cases in the US now stands at close to 317,000, roughly 10 times the official number of infections. As the WSWS noted on the selection of Dr. Jha to replace Zients, “Jha was chosen because he is a ‘household name’ who over the past two years has been brought onto the broadcast news shows on a near-daily basis to issue soporifics and disarm the population to the immense dangers posed by the pandemic.” Right on cue, Jha spent his first hour on the job Monday appearing on three of the broadcast news morning shows that have interviewed him dozens of times before: NBC’s Today, CBS Mornings, and MSNBC’s Morning Joe. In each appearance, Jha downplayed the dangers of BA.2 and covered up the catastrophic record of the Biden administration, which has allowed at least 570,000 Americans to die from COVID-19. He also voiced his support for the unscientific masking guidelines issued by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in late February, which now belatedly recommend masking in a given county only once hospitals begin to reach capacity. On NBC’s Today, when asked about BA.2 and the likelihood of another surge of infections, Jha replied, “I am not overly concerned right now. Case numbers are rising. We were expecting this, because we saw this in Europe a few weeks ago. But the good news is we’re coming off of very low infection numbers.” He reiterated, “I don’t think this is a moment where we have to be excessively concerned.”
Elite D.C. appears to be getting pummeled with Covid – Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Attorney General Merrick Garland on Wednesday revealed they had tested positive for Covid-19, becoming the latest D.C. figures to contract the virus in what is taking on signs of a new wave pummeling the capital city.By Wednesday afternoon, the spread of the virus had gotten further inside the White House and seemingly closer to the president, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ communications director, Jamal Simmons, announcing that he too had become infected. Simmons “was in close contact to the Vice President as defined by CDC guidance,” the VP’s office said, adding that Harris would both follow CDC guidelines and “plans to continue with her public schedule.” Simmons had been at a White House event the day before celebrating the passage of the Affordable Care Act. While there, he was seen shaking hands and talking to former President Barack Obama, who recently tested positive for Covid-19. Both were mask-less.The news of the infections rippled through D.C. Scores of reporters and elected officials have revealed — privately and publicly — in recent days that they have Covid. It’s touched Congress, the White House and major newsrooms. It’s impacted going-away parties and insider gatherings. It’s cast a shadow over the functions of President Joe Biden as well, though the White House says he remains virus-free and has not yet had what is deemed to be a close contact.The origins of the wave are unclear. But signs point to a few events that have likely contributed to the spread. Raimondo’s announcement, for one, comes days after she was a featured speaker at the annual Gridiron Club dinner in Washington, D.C., an event that saw a who’s who of Beltway officials and journalists in attendance. Garland also attended the Gridiron dinner and spoke maskless at a press conference on Wednesday, before his positive test was announced.Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff (Calif.) and Joaquin Castro (Texas)announced Tuesday that they had contracted Covid after attending the dinner Saturday night as well. Both Reps. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) andScott Peters (D-Cali.) announced on Wednesday that they, too, had tested positive, though neither attended the dinner.Those are just the individuals who have announced. Privately, a number of members of the press corps have also come down with Covid after attending the festivities — sparking industry-wide chatter about the evening amounting to a quasi super-spreader event and raising questions about whether the White House Correspondents Association dinner will actually go on as planned in a few weeks.
Ag Secretary tests positive for Covid-19 - Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack tested positive for Covid-19 on Friday ahead of scheduled travel to Denver. He is experiencing mild symptoms. He is fully vaccinated and boosted, according to a statement from the department, and the secretary’s office is conducting contact tracing and notifying those with whom he may have been a close contact in accordance with CDC guidance. The secretary met with Mexican officials while on official travel in Mexico on Monday and Tuesday this week. Per USDA, Vilsack tested negative at the time of his departure and after his return. Out of an abundance of caution, the Mexican government has been informed of this positive test. “Secretary Vilsack will isolate in accordance with CDC guidelines and will return to the office after testing negative for the virus,” USDA said in a statement. “During that time, he will continue his official duties.”
Senate punts $10 billion in Covid aid until after Easter amid stalemate over border policy - Multiple senators confirmed Thursday that they are delaying voting on a bill to pour $10 billion more into pandemic programs until after their two-week spring break, a decision top administration health officials have said further threatens the country’s ability to fight the virus and prepare for potential surges and variants. The move came days after Senate Republicans stopped the legislation from advancing because they weren’t guaranteed an amendment vote on reinstating Title 42, the Trump-era policy that allows for the expulsion of migrants at the border during the pandemic. “The Republicans are playing politics with the health of the American people,” charged Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). “Blocking Covid protection money is a ticking time bomb for public health. So Democrats will come back and try to get the money we need, but this is not a good day for the health of the world.” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who spent the last several weeks negotiating the Covid deal on behalf of Republicans, shot back that Republicans are ready to approve the bill once Democrats grant them amendment votes. “As soon as we have an amendment process, we can get onto the bill and proceed,” he said. “Once we have that, I think we’ll have well more than 60 votes. But until then, we obviously can’t move forward.” So far, Democratic leaders have refused, calling Title 42 “extraneous” and a “distraction.” “We had an agreement on getting this package done, not on doing a bunch of sidebar issues,” Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the Senate’s top health care appropriator, told reporters. “We need therapeutics, we need tests for a new variant, we need to get this done.” Democrats had grudgingly settled for a far smaller Covid aid package than they wanted and that federal officials and public health advocates say is needed. The $10 billion, which includes no money for the global vaccination campaign or Covid services for the uninsured, is less than half of what the White House asked Congress to provide, and is only expected to last a few months before Covid programs would need an additional infusion of cash.
Bus with migrants sent by Texas governor arrives in DC -A bus carrying migrants from Texas arrived in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday morning after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) last week announced plans to send them from his state’s southern border to the nation’s capital.Fox News anchor John Roberts tweeted a picture of the bus parked outside the building that houses the network’s bureau on Capitol Hill and that of several other news outlets on Wednesday morning.Abbott said during a press conference last week the migrants would be voluntarily sent to Washington so that President Biden could “immediately address the needs of the people that they are allowing to come across our border.”Abbott also ordered the state to charter flights to transport migrants to the nation’s capital after they have been processed by the Department of Homeland Security, The Texas Tribunereported.The Biden administration earlier this month rescinded Title 42, a Trump-era immigration rule that prevented people seeking asylum from getting an immediate hearing if they were coming from a country with a communicable disease, such as the coronavirus. Title 42’s recension is effective May 23.The White House last week dismissed Abbott’s plans to send migrants to Washington as a “publicity stunt.”“I’m not aware of what authority the governor would be doing that under,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters. “I think it’s pretty clear this is a publicity stunt. His own office admits that a migrant would need to voluntarily be transported, and he can’t compel them to because, again, enforcement of our country’s immigration laws lies with the federal government, not a state.”
Migrant bus to Washington ups stakes in GOP-Biden border fight - Temperatures in the immigration fight between Republicans and President Biden rose Wednesday after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott sent a bus of migrants to Washington in an effort to bring issues at the southern border to the White House’s doorstep. The Biden administration called the move a “publicity stunt,” a term that White House press secretary Jen Psaki reiterated on Wednesday when asked about the bus’s arrival. Psaki also appeared to mock Abbott’s intentions. “These are all migrants who have been processed by CBP [Customs and Border Protection] and are free to travel, so, it’s nice that the state of Texas is helping them get to their final destination,” Psaki told reporters, adding that the passengers were awaiting outcomes of immigration proceedings. Abbott directed his state’s Division of Emergency Management to bring migrants in Texas to the nation’s capital last week in response to the Biden administration’s move to wind down Title 42, a sweeping border restriction policy implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. When asked if the White House has been in touch with the migrants who arrived in Washington on Wednesday, Psaki said that since they were all in immigration proceedings, they had been in touch with other federal entities. Fox News aired live footage of dozens of migrants exiting the bus and walking around the city around 8:15 a.m. on Wednesday, with Abbott raising tensions even further when he announced the first bus had dropped people off near the Capitol, on the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue. “Biden refuses to come see the mess he’s made at the border. So Texas is bringing the border to him,” Abbott said.
Virginia GOP official resigns after he called for Pentagon chief to be lynched -- The Republican chairman of a Virginia electoral board has stepped down after a racially charged Facebook post he made about Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and others came to light last week. David Dietrich, the former chairman of the Electoral Board in Hampton, resigned Saturday — two days after his social media posting was discovered and prompted Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and other GOP lawmakers to call for his removal. In a post from February 2021, Dietrich targeted Austin and retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré — both Black men — in a post, using the N-word and calling for “a good public lynching.” The ranting post was written shortly after Austin ordered a stand-down across the Defense Department to address extremism in the ranks, a decision made following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of President Trump. Dietrich’s post said that Austin’s decision was meant to “remove conservative, freedom-loving Americans” from the military. Dietrich also targeted Honoré, who House Speaker Navy Pelosi (D-Calif.) appointed to conduct a review of the Capitol’s security failures during the insurrection. “Even in light of those truly irresponsible, mean-spirited, indeed, wicked comments, [Austin is] going to be focused on leading the department forward and trying to continue to set an example going forward. That’s where his head is,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Tuesday when asked about the Pentagon chief’s reaction.
Top intel official had inappropriate relationship, misused email, Pentagon probe found - A top Pentagon intelligence official responsible for some of the most sensitive portfolios engaged in inappropriate conduct with a female subordinate and improperly used his personal email for official business, a newly released investigation by the DoD inspector general alleges.Garry Reid, a retired military officer and career civil servant, was recently relieved of his duties as director of defense intelligence for counterintelligence, law enforcement and security, according to two people with knowledge of the situation.But a third person said he continues to work in the Pentagon as of this week.A Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment, citing Reid’s personal privacy. And Reid, reached by POLITICO, said he could not discuss the matter without prior approval from the Pentagon press office and did not respond to direct questions about his current employment status.Reid, 63, has been carrying out a series of high-profile tasks since the IG investigation was completed in April 2020 after at least four anonymous complaints dating back to 2019.Reid, who has worked at the Pentagon for 15 years, led the Afghanistan Crisis Action Group created during the chaotic U.S. military withdrawal last year.The group was responsible for screening and resettling Afghans who worked with American troops and are in danger of being punished or killed by the Taliban or other terrorist groups.Reid’s office was also responsible for improving the screening of military recruits for extremist behavior after dozens of veterans were implicated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.The prospect that radical elements are hiding inside the military has forced the Pentagon to develop new training and enhance the legal tools at its disposal to spot soldiers who may be supporting violent groups such as white supremacists or otherwise violating their oath to the Constitution.The IG probe investigated Reid’s relationship with two female subordinates, including allegations of inappropriate hugging and kissing, commuting to work and exercising with one of them, and holding frequent private meetings and lunches that further gave the appearance they were having an intimate relationship.“We concluded that Mr. Reid’s overall course of conduct with [the first] subordinate … created a widespread perception of an inappropriate relationship and favoritism,” the IG concluded.
‘All over Hunter Biden’: Republicans lay plans for their own investigation, despite the DOJ probe - - It’s not every day that a House minority calls its investigative shots months before a likely takeover of power. Then again, Hunter Biden is no ordinary oversight target. Top House Republicans are vowing to dig into the overseas business dealings of the president’s son if they claim the majority next year, as is expected — picking a battle with the Justice Department and Democratic lawmakers centered around some of the same themes that defined the Trump administration’s tempestuous relationship with Congress. The younger Biden’s connections to a Chinese energy company are already under the DOJ’s microscope, with a grand jury hearing testimony earlier this year as part of an investigation into his tax dealings and possible violations of foreign lobbying laws. But a federal inquiry isn’t deterring Republicans from pursuing broader allegations against Hunter Biden. The House GOP’s eagerness promises to test whether next year’s likely new majority can conduct legitimate oversight without falling down a rabbit hole of politically motivated allegations that have a murky provenance. Russian disinformation touching on Hunter Biden’s business dealings, for example, emerged during former President Donald Trump’s first impeachment. “The House Oversight Committee is going to be all over Hunter Biden,” said Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), who is slated to become chair of that powerful panel if Republicans win the majority in November. “We’re going to focus on Hunter Biden not for political reasons,” Comer added, “but because we feel he’s a national security threat.” While there’s a broad recognition on Capitol Hill that Hunter Biden’s financial moves are worthy of further investigation, the House GOP is all but telegraphing a do-over of the party’s 2020 election cycle efforts. And it has signoff from the chamber’s top Republican. “I know the grand jury is looking now, but I think there’s a real need to understand what was always said, what other countries are paying him in the process,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said in a brief interview Tuesday. “I think it is definitely something we should look at.” Comer said he hopes DOJ doesn’t indict Hunter Biden before Republicans come into power because it would give him a reason to ignore a congressional subpoena, setting up a high-profile fight with DOJ. And on Tuesday, House Republicans on the Oversight panel previewed their push by seeking a subpoena for the presidential son at a committee hearing centering on electric vehicles. Rep. James Comer speaks at a House hearing. “The House Oversight Committee is going to be all over Hunter Biden,” said Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), who is slated to become chair of that powerful panel if Republicans win the majority in November. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images In recent years, GOP lawmakers indulged a number of questionably sourced claims about Hunter Biden’s work with foreign companies that critics said were more intended to politically damage his father than to pursue genuine conflicts of interest. No evidence has emerged to show or suggest that Hunter Biden’s business deals have affected his father’s decision-making as president, though new reports about financial details found on a laptop that he left with a Delaware repair shop have resurrected Republican interest in finding smoking-gun proof.
Psaki: Fox News feeds Doocy questions that makes him look like a 'stupid son of a...' White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Thursday that the questions posed by Peter Doocy, the Fox News correspondent who serves as her regular briefing room foil, are fed to him by his network. She suggested that those questions make Doocy come off as a “stupid son of a bitch,” a reference to President Joe Biden’s hot-mic remark from an exchange with the Fox News reporter earlier this year. Psaki offered no evidence to support her claim about the provenance of Doocy’s questions.The remark from the White House’s top spokesperson came toward the conclusion of her on-stage interview with “Pod Save America,” when podcast co-host Dan Pfeiffer slipped in a question about Doocy.“Is he a stupid son of a bitch, or does he just play a stupid son of a bitch on TV?” Pfeiffer asked.The live audience laughed, and Psaki paused before answering the question about the reporter who’s known for needling the president and his sparring with the press secretary in the briefing room.“Well, he works for a network that provides people with questions that — nothing person to any individual, including Peter Doocy — but might make anyone sound like a stupid son of a bitch,” Psaki said.A Fox News spokesperson, in an emailed statement, said the network does not feed Doocy questions.
Musk sued over delay in Twitter stake disclosure -Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is facing a lawsuit from former Twitter shareholders who claim he failed to disclose his stake in the social media platform in orderly time, which prevented them from profiting from the rise in stock prices. Musk purchased a 9.2 percent stake in Twitter, becoming the social media company’s largest shareholder. He reportedly has denied a position on the board but was offered a position. In a class-action lawsuit filed in Manhattan federal court, plaintiff and stockholder Marc Bain Rasella said he is suing on behalf of all Twitter shareholders who held stock between March 24, when Musk passed the 5 percent ownership threshold in the social media company, and April 1. According to a copy of the lawsuit uploaded by NPR, Musk was required to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission within 10 days after passing the 5 percent ownership threshold, but he did not do so until April 4. After his announcement on April 4, Twitter shares rose 27 percent from April 1, and those who bought out of the stock “missed the resulting share price increase,” according to the lawsuit. “The members of the class [action lawsuit] are so numerous that joinder of all members is impracticable,” said Rasella, claiming “hundreds or thousands” of people were involved in the lawsuit. Rasella said he is seeking financial relief in the lawsuit that will be determined at trial.
Elon Musk makes bid to buy Twitter - Billionaire Elon Musk made an offer to buy Twitter for $43 billion, in the latest move in the saga since the Tesla CEO acquired a 9.2 percent stake in the company. Musk, in a letter to Twitter Chairman Bret Taylordisclosed in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Wednesday, said he would purchase the company in its entirety for $54.20 a share. More than money: Musk, during an interview at the TED 2022 conference, said the bid to buy Twitter is not a way to “make money,” but rather part of an effort to change the platform to be an “inclusive arena for free speech.” “What I’m saying is this is not a way to sort of make money. My strong intuitive sense is that having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important to the future of civilization. I don’t care about the economics at all,” Musk said. Republican lawmakers cheered Musk’s offer to buy the company and his plan to focus on free speech. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a fierce defender of former President Trump, said he would like to see Twitter accept the billionaire’s offer. “This is the public square today, these social — these big tech platforms. This is where we have debate in our culture and in our country today. “So, let’s have someone in charge who actually respects the First Amendment and free speech,” Jordan said on Fox Business.Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), a conservative firebrand, echoed Jordan’s sentiments, saying that Musk understands that “free speech is worth fighting for.” Read more about the offer here.
Twitter adopts 'poison pill' defense in Musk takeover bid - -- Twitter said Friday that its board of directors has unanimously adopted a “poison pill” defense in response to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s proposal to buy the company for more than $43 billion and take it private. The move would allow existing Twitter shareholders — except for Musk — to buy additional shares at a discount, thereby diluting Musk's stake in the company and making it harder for him to corral a majority of shareholder votes in favor of the acquisition. Twitter’s plan would take effect if Musk’s roughly 9% stake grows to 15% or more. The poison pill injects another twist into a melodrama surrounding the possibility of the world’s richest person taking over a social media platform he described Thursday as the world's “de facto town square.” Twitter said its plan would reduce the likelihood that any one person can gain control of the company without either paying shareholders a premium or giving the board more time to evaluate an offer. Such defenses, formally called shareholder rights plans, are used to prevent the hostile takeover of a corporation by making any acquisition prohibitively expensive for the bidder. Even if it discourages his takeover attempt, Musk could still take over the company by waging a "proxy fight" in which shareholders vote to retain or dismiss the company's current directors. Twitter said its plan doesn’t prevent the board from negotiating or accepting an acquisition proposal if it’s in the company’s best interests. “They’re gearing up for a battle here with Musk," said Daniel Ives, an analyst for Wedbush Securities. “They also have to give themselves time to try to find another potential buyer." Musk has offered to buy the company outright for more than $43 billion, saying it “needs to be transformed as a private company” in order to build trust with its users and do better at serving what he calls the “societal imperative” of free speech. “Having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important to the future of civilization," he said during an onstage interview at a TED event Thursday, just hours after his bid was announced. With about 82 million Twitter followers, Musk is both a prolific user of the platform and a vocal critic of the measures it has taken to restrict accounts that spread misinformation or amplify violent rhetoric and hate speech. He said Thursday he's opposed to permanent user bans — the most famous of which is Twitter's suspension of former President Donald Trump's account after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
Twitter Re-Ban of Scott Ritter, Kafkaesque Support of Impersonator, Is All About Anti-Russia Propaganda - by Yves Smith -- Scott Ritter has the misfortune to be articulate, well-reasoned, and tenacious in staking our officialdom-offending views. That has put him on Twitter’s permanent shit list. We’ll recap his current must-read article on Consortium News describing in painful detail why his second ban this month is on obviously fabricated charges. And to add insult to injury, Twitter has allowed a Scott Ritter impersonator to set up shop, despite that clearly violating Twitter’s own policies as well as identity theft laws in New York, where Ritter lives, and California, where Twitter is headquartered. Ritter is far from the only once-prominent Twitter voice to be suspended for wrong-think on Ukraine: Glenn Greenwald@ggreenwald Apr 13, 2022"Content moderation" is the Orwellian euphemism which corporate journalists and liberals (excuse the redundancy) have created for the term "censorship." And even though it would require discovery to prove it to the “preponderance of evidence” standard, Twitter’s posture as Enforcer of the Narrative sure makes it walk and talk like a state actor. Ritter’s view of the war has been decisively opposed to the version pumped out by the press: Russia is winning and will win decisively. He’s been overly bullish on the timetable, but has given detailed accounts of how Russia has engaged in classic “maneuver warfare” to shape the battlefield and dictate the nature and timing of the engagement. He’s also stressed that media employees and supposed military experts who’ve never seen a day of combat keep projecting US methods onto Russia and thus completely misconstruing what is going on. Russia has not gone the US route of taking out electricity, cell towers, the Internet, and railroads at the onset. Nor has it bombed cities into rubble, which it could easily have done. It has instead gone easy on civilians, taken more military losses, and has prosecuted the war in a more step-by-step, grinding manner, slowly but systematically destroying Ukraine’s ability to wage war while avoiding its cities as much as possible. Russia follows Clausewitz, and Clausewitz argued the fastest path to victory was destroying armies, not cities. That all was well enough tolerated for a while. But then Ritter tweeted on Bucha, and Twitter being Twitter, he was limited to his bottom line: The Ukrainian National Police committed numerous crimes against humanity in Bucha. Biden, in seeking to shift blame for the Bucha murders onto Russia, is guilty of aiding and abetting these crimes. Congratulations America… we’ve created yet another Presidential war criminal!” As Ritter explained in his current Consortium News piece, he had support for that provocative statement. We’ll take the liberty of quoting at length, on the assumption that he wants others to see his work:
White House in no hurry to confirm top bank regulators — The White House appears unlikely to nominate full-time leadership to some of the nation’s top federal banking regulators in the near future, raising precedential questions about governance and the future role of Senate confirmation in financial supervision.In control of the executive government for nearly 16 months, the Biden administration has not secured Senate confirmation for any key leaders among the three prudential bank regulators — the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The OCC, regulator of nationally chartered banks, has been without a Senate-confirmed leader for nearly two years and has been led by acting Comptroller Michael Hsu since May 2021. At the FDIC, which supervises state-chartered banks, acting Chairman Martin Gruenberg has served since February after the departure of the agency's Trump-appointed, Senate-confirmed chair. And the Federal Reserve, which supervises banks at the holding company level, has been without a vice chair of supervision since October, when the term of former Gov. Randal Quarles expired. (Even Jerome Powell, the Trump-appointed chair of the Federal Reserve, is currently leading the agency on an expired term as chair pro tempore.)
CFPB says TransUnion, former executive repeatedly broke law -Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra followed through Tuesday on a recent warning that he would penalize individual executives at companies suspected of repeated violations.The CFPB announced a lawsuit against the credit bureau TransUnion for allegedly violatinga 2017 order to stop misleading customers about the credit reporting and monitoring services the Chicago company offers and to disclose recurring charges for them.The suit also names John Danaher, a former top executive at TransUnion’s Interactive unit, which was responsible for selling the products to consumers.
News Blackout: On the First Day of the Fed’s Money Market Fund Bailouts, JPMorgan Funds Borrowed $8.97 Billion – 32 Percent of the Total - On Thursday, March 31, the Federal Reserve released the names of the Wall Street trading houses and the amounts they had borrowed under three of the Fed’s emergency bailout programs. The data included the Fed’s repo loans for the first quarter of 2020 — the Fed is releasing the repo loan information after a two-year lag on a quarter-by-quarter basis, thus obfuscating a clear snapshot for the life of the program; the Fed’sPrimary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF); and the Fed’s Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility(MMLF). The Fed also released on March 31 thetransaction details for its Commercial Paper Funding Facility but that essentially just showed which commercial paper had become toxic on Wall Street while the other three programs illustrated which units of the mega global banks had become illiquid and needed Fed bailouts stretching over many months.As we have previously reported, the Fed’s release of the repo loan transaction data was met with a complete news blackout by mainstream media. That news blackout continued with the release of the quarterly data on March 31. The news blackout has extended as well to the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. Bloomberg Law did publish a superficial article on the Primary Dealer Credit Facility but it put the information behind a paywall.The reason for this news blackout may have something to do with mainstream media’s God-like worship of the Fed and its love fest with Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase. As it turns out, units of JPMorgan Chase were among the largest borrowers under the Fed’s repo loans, its Primary Dealer Credit Facility and its Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, despite Dimon’s perpetual bragging about his bank’s “fortress balance sheet.”The hard, cold reality that Dimon was forced to rely on the Fed for multiple bailouts in 2019 and 2020 does not correlate with the financial guru status that mainstream media outlets have been showering on Dimon for more than a decade (see here, here, andhere) despite the bank racking up five felony counts under Dimon’s “stewardship,” which should have been a screaming siren call to the Fed, which supervises JPMorgan Chase.We have now had time to analyze the Fed’s needlessly labyrinthine transaction data for its Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. It shows that 10 of JPMorgan’s money market funds needed to tap liquidity from the Fed on its first day of operation, March 23, 2020. In fact, on that very first day of operation of the MMLF facility, JPMorgan’s money market funds borrowed a staggering $8.97 billion, or 32 percent of the $27.15 billion in funds loaned that day by the Fed’s MMLF.JPMorgan money market funds’ liquidity problem on March 23, 2020 appears to have centered on JPMorgan’s tax-free money market funds holding billions of dollars in New York City’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (MTA’s) short-term revenue notes. Those were prominent among the instruments submitted as collateral to the Fed for loans from the MMLF. The MTA notes apparently could not be sold by JPMorgan to meet redemption requests without causing the money market fund to break the buck. Money market mutual funds are expected to trade at a stable $1.00 per share. It is known as “breaking the buck” when money market funds trade for less than $1.00 per share. This occurred at several money market funds during the financial crisis of 2008 and increased the panic occurring at the time. Exactly why JPMorgan’s money market funds held so much money in one municipal issuer’s notes should warrant the attention of its regulators.
JPMorgan Chase Has Sunk $84 Billion Into Buying Back Its Stock Over Past 5 Years; Now Its Stock Is Sinking -By Pam and Russ Martens:JPMorgan Chase’s publicly-traded shares closed out 2021 with a share price of $158.35. At the closing bell yesterday, shares of JPMorgan Chase were at $127.30, a year-to-date price decline of 19.6 percent. That’s dramatically worse than its peer bank, Wells Fargo, and modestly worse than another peer bank, Bank of America.That performance is shocking because the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, is paid like a rock star by his Board, treated like a financial wizard by the business press, and perpetually brags about his bank’s “fortress balance sheet” in his musings to Congress and shareholders.But the share price performance is not shocking if one considers that one of the artificial props under the share price for the past five years has been Dimon’s crony Board of Directors authorizing giant share buybacks of the stock. According to YCharts (give the chart time to load) since January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2021 – a span of five years – JPMorgan Chase has spent a total of $84.312 billion buying back its own stock. In eight of those quarters, it spent more than $5 billion buying back its own shares.What may have contributed to the drop in the bank’s share price in the first quarter of this year is the fact that, according to its recent quarterly earnings report (8-K), it spent only a net $1.7 billion buying back its stock in the current quarter. It notes in the same report, however, that “The Firm’s Board of Directors has authorized a new common equity share repurchase program of $30 billion, effective May 1, 2022.”When the largest bank in the United States has to spend tens of billions of dollars buying back its own stock over long stretches of time and its share price sinks when it’s not able to do that, maybe regulators need to open the gates at this so-called “fortress” bank and look for rotten timber.There’s plenty of reasons for regulators and Congress to be concerned. JPMorgan Chase is the only bank in the United States to have been charged with five felony counts since 2014 by the U.S. Department of Justice, admitting to all of them. It is the only federally-insured bank in the United States to have made more than a hundred billion dollars in gambles in exotic derivatives in London – using deposits from its insured bank – and lose $6.2 billion of depositors’ money. The matter, which became known as the London Whale scandal in 2012, was so alarming that the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations conducted an extensive investigation over nine months and issued a 300-page report. JPMorgan Chase has also been judged by a federal government repository to have the riskiest profile among its peer banks.
After Blowing $328 Billion on Share Buybacks since 2017, JPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo, Citi, Goldman Sachs Stocks Drop to 2017 Levels -- by Wolf Richter - Of the big five banks and bank holding companies in the US by total assets – JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs Group – four reported Q1 earnings so far, and BofA will do so next week. Those earnings reports were marked by a sharp decline in revenues and net income, with all kinds of complications in between. And as a group their shares continued their jagged decline that started in November last year. The WOLF STREET index of the big five banks’ market capitalization has plunged 23.5% since its recent peak in October 2021 (data via YCharts): This debacle occurred amid enormous share buybacks. These banks have been regularly featured among the largest share buyback queens in the US, except during the pandemic, when they halted the practice for three quarters. In the five years from 2017 through 2021, the five banks have incinerated, wasted, and destroyed $328 billion in cash on repurchasing their own shares to prop up their stocks, and now their stocks have nothing to show for it (data via YCharts): Q1 was crappy as IPOs imploded, mortgage activity fizzled, other stuff happened. JPMorgan Chase kicked off the quarterly banking show on Wednesday morning when it reported that its net income plunged by 42% to $8.3 billion in Q1 compared to Q1 last year. Revenues fell 5% to $30.7 billion, on a 35% plunge in revenues in its investment banking division. Over the two trading days since the earnings release on Wednesday morning, JP Morgan’s shares tanked 4.1% and are down 25% from their 52-week high in January. In preparation for rate-hike-induced financial stress on borrowers, it set aside $902 million for loan loss reserves, compared to a $5.2-billion benefit a year ago from releasing loan loss reserves it had set up during the pandemic. And it booked $582 million in net charge-offs, bringing the total credit costs to $1.5 billion. During the earnings call, CEO Jamie Dimon said that the bank sees “significant geopolitical and economic challenges ahead due to high inflation, supply chain issues, and the war in Ukraine.” Goldman Sachs reported that revenues plunged 27% in Q1, to $12.9 billion, and net income plunged by 42% to $3.9 billion. Goldman Sachs share were down just a tad on Thursday, and are down 24.5% from their 52-week high in early November. Investment banking revenue plunged by 36% to $2.4 billion. It set aside $561 million for credit losses, compared to a benefit of $70 million a year earlier. Asset management revenue collapsed by 88% to $546 million, “primarily reflecting net losses in Equity investments and significantly lower net revenues in Lending and debt investments.” But at its consumer and wealth management division, revenues grew by 21% to $2.10 billion. And its global market revenues ticked up 4% to $7.87 billion. And yes, given the turmoil in the commodities markets, currency markets, and bond markets, revenues at FICC (Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities) jumped 21% to $4.71 billion. “The rapidly evolving market environment had a significant effect on client activity as risk intermediation came to the fore and equity issuance came to a near standstill,” the earnings release said.
Former Trump official Mick Mulvaney joins crypto firm as advisor -Mick Mulvaney, who worked as acting White House chief of staff for former President Donald Trump, has joined the crypto compliance firm Astra Protocol as a strategic advisor. Astra provides DeFi, or decentralized finance, platforms with software to comply with government regulations, such as know-your-customer requirements — identity verification standards designed to prevent fraud, money laundering and terrorism financing. Mulvaney told Bloomberg that for the last several months he’s been mostly focused on connecting the Astra team to potential investors to aid their capital raising efforts. But eventually he plans to leverage his government expertise to help the Zurich-based firm navigate U.S. regulations. He’ll also provide guidance on filling senior leadership positions.
Goldman women pick big lawsuit over arbitration, but many abstain -Hundreds of women who’ve worked for Goldman Sachs Group were given a choice: remain in one of Wall Street’s biggest gender discrimination lawsuits, or leave for the more secretive system of arbitration. Almost everyone who’s responded wants to stay in court. But about half of the group didn’t respond at all, which means they’re leaving the lawsuit. According to a court filing from the plaintiffs, 339 of the 349 women who responded chose to remain in the class-action lawsuit and reject arbitration. But the 344 women who didn’t respond won’t be members of a class that also includes more than 1,000 other Goldman women.
As Treasury Yields Spiked, Junk Bonds Did the Opposite: Still Maniacally Chasing Yield in Riskiest La-La Land By Wolf Richter -- The yields of US Treasuries have spiked in recent months to multi-year highs, and mortgage rates have spiked, and yields of investment-grade corporate bonds have spiked, and bond funds have served up losses to their investors, and investors in conservative long-term bond funds have taken the biggest hit – for example, the price of the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF [TLT] has plunged 27% since July 2020 – and all kinds of mayhem has broken loose in the bond market.Except in junk bonds, and especially in the riskiest sections of the junk bond market, where a maniacal chase for yield continues to rage as yield-chasers don’t think that the Fed’s tightening applies to junk bonds, when in fact it applies to junk bonds a lot more than investment grade corporate bonds or Treasury securities because it will tighten financial conditions – that’s the Fed’s expressed goal – which will make it more difficult for many of these junk-rated companies to issue new debt to service and pay off existing debts, which is what keeps these companies that make up the riskier end of the spectrum from defaulting on their existing debts.The two-year Treasury yield jumped to 2.53% by Friday, the highest since the 2018 rate-hike phase, and before then the highest since July 2008 as the Financial Crisis was beginning to fully blossom. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 2.72% on Friday, the highest since the February-December 2018 era, and before then the highest since 2014, at the end of the Taper Tantrum: Now inflation is nearly three times the Fed’s target and has turned into a political bitch for the White House, and the Fed is under pressure to bring it back down, which it won’t succeed in doing for a long while. But instead, the Fed will chase it higher with too-slow rate hikes and too timid Quantitative Tightening, after having committed policy error after policy error for the past two years, and after having exacerbated these policy errors starting in January 2021, when the Fed began to blow off this surging inflation. So now, there won’t be a Powell pivot to lower rates. Those rates will keep going higher, too slowly, and everyone knows it. High Grade AA-rated corporate bond yields have been rising too, but since mid-March more slowly than the equivalent Treasury yield, a sign of some yield chasing, with the average yield rising to 3.37%. During the Financial Crisis, when the 10-year Treasury yield maxed out at 4.2%, the average AA-rated yield maxed out at 8%, as financial conditions were tightening even for these companies. Single-B rated junk bonds, however, rose only modestly since September 2021, and fell since mid-March 2022, while Treasury yields were spiking. On March 15, they’d reached 6.72%. At the end of last week, they were down to 6.48%, which remains historically very low.And this yield is still below the rate of CPI inflation! Investors are taking huge risks for still negative, but less negative, real yields.B-rated bonds are mid-level junk bonds, considered “highly speculative.” That category is riskier than BB-rated junk bonds (“non-investment grade speculative”), according to my cheat sheet for corporate bond credit ratings.CCC-or-below-rated junk bonds comprise the highest risk category of companies, those whose cash flow isn’t nearly enough to cover debt payments, and with big losses – companies are borrowing on borrowed time, so to speak. This category of bonds ranges from “substantial risk” for CCC-rated bonds to “Default imminent with little prospect for recovery” for C-rated bonds. The next step down is D for default, according to my corporate bond credit ratings guide.The average CCC-or-below-rated bond yield also fell from mid-March (10.36%) to 10.11% currently. Over this period, as Treasury yields spiked, the spread to Treasury yields narrowed by 81 basis points, a sign that this end of the market is in total la-la land.
Banks are wrong to oppose CFPB data collection for small-business loans | American Banker -As Americans took to the streets to protest the police killings of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and others, major banks and lenders were among the corporations that pledged tens of billions of dollars to new initiatives aimed at bridging racial economic inequality particularly for African Americans.These high-profile public commitments were welcome news. But now, not quite two years later, key actors in the banking and lending industries are fighting to thwart regulations that will help close the racial wealth divide.We currently collect no public demographic data on lending to small businesses by banks, credit unions or any other institutions. And banks are fighting to keep it that way, lobbying for narrow and ineffective rulemaking by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under Section 1071 of the Dodd-Frank reforms passed n 2010.
Bankers fear CFPB will lower cap on credit card late fees - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is expected to seek to lower the cap on credit card late charges to safeguard cardholders from excessive fees imposed by issuers and from the effects of inflation. Such a move would dovetail with CFPB Director Rohit Chopra's pledge to crack down on what he calls “junk fees,” or charges that he says don't correlate with the underlying costs of products or services. Last month Chopra criticized credit card issuers for collecting $12 billion of late fees in 2020. In supporting a reduction in late fees, the CFPB cited the need to improve competition and reduce costs for subprime borrowers that pay a disproportionate share of penalties.
Scammers are targeting Gen Z and dealing a blow to banks --Recent research uncovering a spike in fraud targeting Gen Z gives banks a glimpse of the future, as people 25 and younger become a larger chunk of their customer bases.This generation's lack of awareness of fraud schemes make them an easy prey to fraudsters in some ways, according to Tamas Kadar, co-founder and chief executive of SEON, a fraud prevention company based in London. But the young also have tendencies and knowledge that help protect them. Kadar’s company released a report last month that looked specifically at the fraud trends affecting Generation Z, defined by institutions like Pew Research as people born during or after 1997. Past research has typically focused on older people as fraud victims.
States take different paths on small-business loan disclosures --Small businesses in Virginia and Utah will soon get clearer disclosures about the money they borrow from merchant advance companies. But the disclosures will be lacking one number: the annual percentage rate they will pay for each loan. That won’t be the case in New York and California, where lawmakers are requiring nonbank business lenders to disclose APRs. The divergent paths in the states — and future fights in more statehouses — are the result of opposing lobbying efforts by lenders and a debate over whether APRs make sense for some types of business loans.
If the fair-lending vigilantes catch you, it’s your own fault | American Banker - Practicing fair lending, and fair banking more broadly, must be a 24/7 job regardless of the political climate. This must also be the case with fair-lending enforcement.This, unfortunately, was not the case under the Trump administration. The best proof is the Biden administration’s much celebrated TrustMark redlining and racial discrimination case, which should have been filed by the Department of Justice and other regulators four years earlier.Banks and their regulators were comfortable with the Trump deregulatory environment, but this was not the case with community groups. They responded with what can best be called fair-lending vigilantism.
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey; Higher Mortgage Rates to Slow Purchase Originations Growth and Refinances - Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 8, 2022. ... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 62 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates across all loan types continued to move higher, with the 30-year fixed rate exceeding the 5-percent mark to 5.13 percent – the highest since November 2018. Refinance activity as a result declined to the slowest weekly pace since 2019,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Higher rates are increasing borrower interest in ARMs. Their share of applications last week was at 7.4 percent, which was the highest share since June 2019. In a promising sign of strong purchase demand amidst affordability challenges, both conventional and government purchase applications increased.” Given the faster than expected increase in mortgage rates, and the likelihood of more aggressive actions from the Federal Reserve to curb inflation, MBA’s April 2022 forecast now calls for mortgage originations to total $2.58 trillion in 2022 – a 35.5 percent decline from 2021. Purchase originations are still forecasted to reach a record $1.72 trillion this year – a 4 percent increase from 2021. Refinance originations are now expected to fall 64 percent to $841 billion. ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.13 percent from 4.90 percent, with points increasing to 0.63 from 0.53 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Second Home Markets and FHFA Changes as of April 1st --- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Second Home Markets and FHFA Changes as of April 1st - A brief excerpt: Earlier this year the FHFA announced “Targeted Increases to Enterprise Pricing Framework”. Effective April 1st (just over a week ago), these higher fees applied to certain high balance loans, and to second home loans (for Fannie and Freddie). Excerpt: ... In April, upfront fees for high balance loans will increase between 0.25 percent and 0.75 percent, tiered by loan-to-value ratio. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refer to these mortgages as high balance loans and super conforming loans, respectively.For second home loans, upfront fees will increase between 1.125 percent and 3.875 percent, tiered by loan-to-value ratio. With the pandemic, there was a surge in second home buying. One of the second home markets I’ve been tracking is South Lake Tahoe.The following graph is for single family homes in South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through March 2022, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data....This will be interesting to watch over the next several months, but so far there isn't any evidence of a second home slowdown in these numbers.There is more in the article.
Apartment Vacancy Rate Declined in Q1 - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Apartment Vacancy Rate Declined in Q1 - A brief excerpt: Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.7% in Q1 2022, down from 4.8% in Q4, and down from a pandemic peak of 5.4% in both Q1 and Q2 2021. This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Reis is just for large cities.Reis also reported the effective rents were up 2.5% in Q1 compared to Q4, and up 15.6% year-over-year. ...Effective rents declined significantly in the early stages of the pandemic, and even with the recent surge in rents, rents are only up 5.9% annualized over the last 2 years. So, a large portion of the rent increase over the last year was just making up for the previous declines.For some cities, effective rents were up significantly more, especially in some cities like Albuquerque, Jacksonville and Phoenix. Other sunbelt areas like Las Vegas, Florida, and Southern California also saw huge rent increases.There is more in the article.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 4.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019 - From CoStar: STR: US Hotels Grow Rates, but Occupancy Still Lags 2019 Levels - U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through April 9.
April 3-9, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 66.4% (-4.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $150.45 (+10.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $99.93 (+5.4%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is just above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).
LA Area Port Traffic: Record March Inbound Traffic - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic was up 0.2% in March compared to the rolling 12 months ending in February. Outbound traffic was down 1.4% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 3% YoY in March, and exports were down 14% YoY. This was record inbound traffic for the month of March.
Retail Sales Increased 0.5% in March --On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.5% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 6.9 percent from March 2021. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $665.7 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent from the previous month, and 6.9 percent above March 2021. ... The January 2022 to February 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.3 percent to up 0.8 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 0.3% in March. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.4% on a YoY basis. Sales growth in March was slightly below expectations, however, sales in January and February were revised up, combined.
Consumer Price Index: March Headline at 8.54% - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.54%, up from 7.87% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.47%, up from 6.41% the previous month. Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The gasoline index rose 18.3 percent in March and accounted for over half of the all items monthly increase; other energy component indexes also increased. The food index rose 1.0 percent and the food at home index rose 1.5 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in March following a 0.5-percent increase the prior month. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in the increase, with a broad set of other indexes also contributing, including those for airline fares, household furnishings and operations, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance. In contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 3.8 percent over the month. The all items index continued to accelerate, rising 8.5 percent for the 12 months ending March, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.5 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 32.0 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 8.8 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1981. . Read more Investing.com was looking for a 1.2% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.5% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 8.4% for Headline and 6.6% for Core. The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
U.S. inflation jumped 8.5 percent in past year, highest since 1981 - Inflation soared over the past year at its fastest pace in more than 40 years, with costs for food, gasoline, housing and other necessities squeezing American consumers and wiping out the pay raises that many people have received. The Labor Department said Tuesday that its consumer price index jumped 8.5 percent in March from 12 months earlier — the biggest year-over-year increase since December 1981. Prices have been driven up by bottlenecked supply chains, robust consumer demand and disruptions to global food and energy markets worsened by Russia’s war against Ukraine. The government’s report also showed that inflation rose 1.2 percent from February to March, up from a 0.8 percent increase from January to February. The March inflation numbers were the first to capture the full surge in gasoline prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Moscow’s brutal attacks have triggered far-reaching Western sanctions against the Russian economy and have disrupted global food and energy markets. According to AAA, the average price of a gallon of gasoline — $4.10 — is up 43 percent from a year ago, though it has fallen back in the past couple of weeks. The escalation of energy prices has led to higher transportation costs for the shipment of goods and components across the economy, which, in turn, has contributed to higher prices for consumers. The latest evidence of accelerating prices will solidify expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates aggressively in the coming months to try to slow borrowing and spending and tame inflation. The financial markets now foresee much steeper rate hikes this year than Fed officials had signaled as recently as last month.
WHOOSH, Dollar’s Purchasing Power Goes to Heck as Services Inflation Takes Off, Food Spikes, Energy Explodes, But Used Cars Finally Stall - by Wolf Richter - The Consumer Price Index today – a measure of how fast the dollar and everything denominated in dollars, including labor, lost its purchasing power – is a horror show, the likes of which the majority of Americans have never experienced in their lives. Reality on the ground is even worse for many people because CPI is slow to pick up the red-hot housing inflation as we’ll see in a moment, and because CPI structurally is skewed to represent the inflation felt by higher-income households, while lower income households, as Fed governor Lael Brainard pointed out last week, face higher inflation and feel it much more. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) spiked by 1.2% in March from February, and by 8.5% from a year ago, the worst since 1981, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. But in 1981, the Fed was effectively cracking down on inflation with double-digit policy interest rates, and inflation was on the way down. Now inflation is spiking, and the Fed is still repressing short-term interest rates to near 0%, and it still holds $8.9 trillion in assets on its balance sheet as a result of years of money printing, including $4.8 trillion that it printed over the past two years to repress long-term interest rates and to produce the biggest wealth disparity ever. And now we’re surprised by this spike in inflation? There is no period in history that compares to this period, not even the 1970s because the Fed wasn’t printing money in the 1970s. Consumer price inflation is not a sign of anything positive, but a sign of the loss of the purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar, including the purchasing power of labor. And it’s cumulative, month after month, year after year. In March, the purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 dropped to a new record low of $58.80, which explains why the mood of Americans has curdled: The CPI for services – which includes housing costs – jumped by 0.7% in March from February, the third jump in a row of this magnitude, and by 5.1% compared to March last year, the worst services inflation since 1991. Given how slow the CPI is in picking up the surging housing costs, this portion of the CPI will continue to get worse, even as prices of gasoline and used cars might come down some.
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.5% in March The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in March. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also increased 0.5% in March. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Used Cars" were down 37% annualized in March, and this will likely show further declines in coming months. Motor fuel was up 648% annualized in March! Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up around 5% to 6% annualized in March. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.9%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 6.1%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.5%. Core PCE is for February and increased 5.4% year-over-year.
Inflation Nightmare Keeps Getting Worse: Producer Prices Break Out. Inflationary Mindset Rules by Wolf Richter - The Producer Price Index for Final Demand spiked by 1.4% in March from February, and by 11.2% from a year ago, both the biggest and worst spikes in the year-over-year data going back to 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said today. After having been stuck at around 10% for four months in a row, producer price inflation has now broken out – to use a stock trading term.The PPI Final Demand tracks the input prices for consumer-facing industries whose selling prices are picked up in future months by the Consumer Price Index which yesterday, WHOOSH, already hit 8.5%. The PPI Final Demand shows what’s in store for the CPI in future months. And there is no “softening” in store, and it’s the PPI for services that has now started to spike.For the past 15 months, producer prices have soared relentlessly. Five months in a row of double-digit producer price inflation is quite something. And the breakout today is remarkable.Without the volatile food and energy costs, the core PPI spiked by 1.0% in March from February and by 9.2% year-over-year, the highest in the data, having relentlessly pushed higher since late 2020: And services! The Producer Price Index for Final Demand Services spiked by 0.9% in March from February and by 8.7% year-over-year, the highest in the data going back to 2010. What companies all along the supply chains have figured out is that they can pass on cost increases to the next company and to consumers. And consumers have been playing along eagerly, having switched from being fairly astute buyers and price shoppers to paying whatever. This is the inflationary mindset that has taken over.
March consumer inflation part 1: real wages decline sharply - The March consumer inflation report was particularly important, and particularly bad. So much so that I am going to divide my comments into two separate posts. First, the news on real wages was terrible. While nominally nonsupervisory wages rose 0.4% in March, since inflation rose 1.2%, “real” wages declined -0.8% in March alone. On a YoY basis, real wages were down -1.8%: Aside from the outset of the pandemic during April and May 2020, this is the worst number since 2011, and one of the 4 worst months since 1991. Further, on an absolute scale, real wages were the lowest since March 2020; they were also down -1.6% since July 2020: Finally, real aggregate payrolls are only up 1.5% YoY, and only up 0.3% in the past 7 months. Since real aggregate payrolls turning negative YoY is frequently something that happens shortly before recessions (and likely is a causative agent), although there are some false positives, this is also not good news: We really need real wages to turn up. But the signs are not good that inflation may abate in the absence of the Fed slamming on the brakes. I’ll discuss that separately in part 2 of this update.
Gas prices are up nearly 50% from a year ago, forcing some Uber, Lyft drivers off the road - When Sergio Avedian, 55, started driving full time for Uber and Lyft in 2016, he used to make $3,000 a week."Now, it's impossible to make that kind of money," he said.Coming out of the pandemic, demand for rides is high but inflation and therising price of gasoline has made it harder for drivers to earn what they once did."Gas prices pretty much crippled all drivers," said Chris Gerace, contributor at The Rideshare Guy, a blog aimed at helping rideshare drivers earn more money. Nearly half of rideshare workers, including Uber and Lyft drivers, as well as food deliverers for companies like Grubhub, DoorDash and Uber Eats, quit or drive less because of the recent spike in gas prices, according to The Rideshare Guy's own poll. I hope that it's only a temporary thing but as time goes on, we are going to have another segment of drivers say 'I can't do this anymore,'" Gerace said.The Consumer Price Index, which measures the prices Americans must pay for goods and services, is up 8.5% from a year ago — notching a fresh high in March. However, gas prices jumped 18.3% for the month, boosted by the war in Ukraine and the pressure that is putting on supply."Gas prices alone accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in the CPI, and over the past year, gas prices are up 48%," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. Although the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline fell slightly to $4.10 after the White House announced several stopgap measures, it is still significantly higher than the $2.86 seen one year ago, according to data from AAA.
AFBF: Egg Prices Higher This Easter, But Not Due to Bird Flu -- Consumers are paying more for eggs right now, but inventory is still higher than during the last major outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, according to an American Farm Bureau Federation analysis. As of Wednesday afternoon, USDA's website reports 24.95 million commercial and backyard birds have been confirmed with bird flu and depopulated since February in now 26 states. Missing from USDA's numbers is a flock of 1.7 million egg-laying hens from a farm in Dixon County, Nebraska, that state officials reported on Wednesday. It's the largest affected farm so far in Nebraska. Post Holdings, owner of Michael Foods, reported the flock had tested positive. Michael Foods processes liquid eggs for other food processors and food-service providers. Post Holdings said the operation accounted for about 4% of the company's supply. Along with another 390,000 Minnesota turkeys confirmed with HPAI that haven't been posted on USDA's list, the number of commercial and backyard losses is easily approaching 27 million domestic birds. Just under 18.5 million birds that have been tested positive for HPAI and euthanized are egg-laying chickens. Egg prices, adjusted for inflation, are nearly 15% higher than they were during the same period in 2015 during the last major HPAI outbreak. According to USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service, there were 38% more eggs available in the two-week run-up to Easter than in 2015. Eggs are more expensive, though not as high as they got in 2020 when COVID-19 disrupted the industry. "Today's pricing suggests that the market doesn't necessarily believe the industry has HPAI contained quite yet," AFBF noted. CoBank had analyzed the impact of the current outbreak in late March but cited that the number of layers was already down about 7 million birds compared to pre-COVID numbers. That would lead to higher prices going into Easter. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…) Regardless, the latest number of flocks and birds infected by highly pathogenic avian influenza show this year's outbreak of HPAI cases is actually outpacing the 2014-15 outbreak, AFBF stated. An analysis by AFBF's Market Intel showed more than 600 detections of HPAI among wild birds in 31 states. AFBF's analysis through April 7 also showed 158 outbreaks among commercial or backyard farms in 25 states. That number has since bumped up to 170 commercial or backyard farms hit with HPAI in 26 states.As AFBF pointed out, the spread of avian influenza has raised concerns that this year's outbreak could be as bad as 2014-15 when 43 million chickens and another 7.4 million turkeys were depopulated. The 2014-15 avian influenza outbreak is considered the largest and most expensive foreign animal disease in U.S. history, causing roughly $1.6 billion in losses by producers and another $1 billion spent by USDA to manage the depopulation and disposal of birds, as well as provide indemnities to producers.
Inflation Nightmare Keeps Getting Worse: Producer Prices Break Out. Inflationary Mindset Rules by Wolf Richter - The Producer Price Index for Final Demand spiked by 1.4% in March from February, and by 11.2% from a year ago, both the biggest and worst spikes in the year-over-year data going back to 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said today. After having been stuck at around 10% for four months in a row, producer price inflation has now broken out – to use a stock trading term.The PPI Final Demand tracks the input prices for consumer-facing industries whose selling prices are picked up in future months by the Consumer Price Index which yesterday, WHOOSH, already hit 8.5%. The PPI Final Demand shows what’s in store for the CPI in future months. And there is no “softening” in store, and it’s the PPI for services that has now started to spike.For the past 15 months, producer prices have soared relentlessly. Five months in a row of double-digit producer price inflation is quite something. And the breakout today is remarkable.Without the volatile food and energy costs, the core PPI spiked by 1.0% in March from February and by 9.2% year-over-year, the highest in the data, having relentlessly pushed higher since late 2020: And services! The Producer Price Index for Final Demand Services spiked by 0.9% in March from February and by 8.7% year-over-year, the highest in the data going back to 2010. What companies all along the supply chains have figured out is that they can pass on cost increases to the next company and to consumers. And consumers have been playing along eagerly, having switched from being fairly astute buyers and price shoppers to paying whatever. This is the inflationary mindset that has taken over.
Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices, Supply in Light of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict - Nitrogen fertilizer prices are high and likely will go higher due to repercussions from the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Herein, we trace the evolution of nitrogen price increases, making the case that increases up until recent months resulted from responses to the Covid pandemic, general price inflation, and policies in Europe to move away from fossil fuels. The Ukraine-Russia conflict will intensify nitrogen price and supply concerns. North American fertilizer companies have faced scrutiny as a culprit in rising nitrogen fertilizer prices. While it is true that North American fertilizer companies likely will have a good income year in 2022, a range of global market factors are contributing to higher fertilizer prices. Fertilizer prices have been rising since 2020, reaching extremely high levels in the fall of 2021 (see Figure 1). According to the Agricultural Marketing Service, farmer-paid prices for anhydrous ammonia were $487 per ton in 2020, increasing to $746 per ton by July 2021. The price continued to grow, reaching over $1,000 per ton in October 2021. Illinois ammonia prices continued to increase to $1,498 on February 10 and $1,503 on February 24, the day Russia invaded Ukraine. On March 23, the ammonia price was $1,516 per ton, increasing little from the reference point before the invasion. Through October 2021, ammonia price increases were explained reasonably well by increases in corn and natural gas prices, with corn prices having more impact than natural gas prices. Corn represents the crop with the single highest nitrogen use in North America (soybeans generally do not need additional nitrogen fertilizers, while wheat and other grasses would use nitrogen). As a result, increases in corn prices may signal increased demand for nitrogen fertilizers that pushes fertilizer prices higher.Natural gas is the major variable input in producing nitrogen fertilizers in North America and Europe. Other research has found that the relationship between nitrogen fertilizer and corn prices strengthens in the biofuels era. Up through October, farmer-paid prices can be attributed to the typical factors that cause corn and natural gas price rises. There are high correlations between corn, natural gas, ammonia prices, and most commodities, including crude oil. Up through October 2021, commodity price increases were responses to disruptions caused by the Covid pandemic and resulting price inflation.
Parents struggle to find baby formula amid widespread shortages and rationing -The supply of baby formula — one of the most important products for new parents — is so constrained right now that retailers are limiting the number of products consumers are allowed to purchase in order to preserve their inventories. Drugstore chains Walgreens and CVS Health, and department store Target have recently put limits on how many baby formula products consumers can purchase at one time. A spokesperson for Walgreens told CBS MoneyWatch it is limiting customers to three infant and toddler formula products per transaction, citing "increased demand and various supplier issues." CVS Health also said it has imposed a limit of three baby formula products per purchase in stores and online, until it can procure sufficient supply from its vendors. And a spokesperson for Target confirmed it has product limitations in place. At Target.com, consumers can only purchase four pieces of a given baby formula product at a time. Prices of baby formula, which three-quarters of babies in the U.S. receive within their first six months, have also spiked. The average cost of the most popular baby formula products is up as much as 18% over the last 12 months. Supply-chain snarls related to COVID-19 are contributing to the shortage of formula around the U.S. They include manufacturers having more difficulty procuring key ingredients, packaging hangups and labor shortages, with those factors combining to affect production and distribution. In addition, a major baby formula recall in January exacerbated shortages. At retailers across the U.S., 29% of the top-selling baby formula products were out of stock as of the week of March 13, according to an analysis by Datasembly, which tracked baby formula stock at more than 11,000 stores. That's up sharply from 11% in November. "This is a shocking number that you don't see for other categories," Ben Reich, CEO of Datasembly told CBS MoneyWatch.
Industrial Production Increased 0.9 Percent in March --From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Total industrial production advanced 0.9 percent in March and rose at an annual rate of 8.1 percent for the first quarter. Manufacturing output gained 0.9 percent in March; the output of motor vehicles and parts jumped 7.8 percent, while factory output elsewhere moved up 0.4 percent. The index for utilities increased 0.4 percent, and the index for mining advanced 1.7 percent. At 104.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in March was 5.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization climbed to 78.3 percent, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2021) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.1% below the average from 1972 to 2020. This was above consensus expectations. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in March to 104.6. This is above the February 2020 level. The change in industrial production was above consensus expectations.
Fed’s industrial output gauge reaches 101-year high - The Federal Reserve’s monthly gauge of industrial activity reached its highest level in more than 100 years of the index’s history, according to data released by the central bank Friday, thanks to a jump in automobile production. The Fed’s index for industrial production rose to 104.6 in March, an increase of 0.9 percent, despite supply chain disruptions and shortages driven by the war in Ukraine. The index measures how much industrial output has increased or decreased compared to the average in a specific year — currently 2017. That means industrial production last month was equal to 104.6 percent of its 2017 level, the highest level since the Fed began calculating the index in 1919. “The strong performance of the industrial sector should give gross domestic product growth in the first quarter a needed boost especially with consumption hampered by elevated inflation,” A surprisingly strong boost to industrial production is a welcome sign for the U.S. economy as rising prices for oil, gas, commodity crops, minerals and other key resources deepen supply chain backlogs across the world. COVID-19 shutdowns in China and enhanced inspections for trucks entering Texas from Mexico have also added pressure to supply chains amid the highest annual inflation in more than 40 years. Economists have grown increasingly concerned the Fed may need to raise interest rates to levels high enough to severely slow the economy in order to curb inflation. “The void in global and domestic demand, especially in energy and raw production materials as a result of the war in Ukraine, might have given American producers the opportunities to increase production,” Domestic automobile production rose 7.8 percent, the largest increase among manufacturing industries, and mining posted the largest gain among commodity producers with a 1.7 percent increase. “The total number of vehicles produced in March reached 9.75 million, the highest since January last year. But auto production remained subdued compared to pre-pandemic levels as manufacturers continued to face a shortage of chips,” TAGS
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 185,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending April 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 185,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 166,000 to 167,000. The 4-week moving average was 172,250, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 170,000 to 170,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin vetoes 26 Democratic bills – Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin vetoed 26 bills — including some that passed with broad bipartisan support — as he took action on more than 800 bills the divided legislature sent him during its regular session.None of the vetoed bills were sponsored by Republicans, a point Democrats quickly seized on, criticizing the first-term governor as excessively partisan.“It’s not clear to me why the governor thinks that he’s got the monopoly of what’s right for Virginia when these bills have already been vetted by bipartisan majorities,” said Democratic Sen. Scott Surovell, who sponsored two bills Youngkin vetoed.Youngkin’s veto total was higher than any other governor in his first year in office since Republican Jim Gilmore, who had 37 in 1998, according to an accounting by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project. Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam, who preceded Youngkin, was close with 20.Democratic Sen. Adam Ebbin, who sponsored nine of the vetoed bills, said he sees those vetoes as retaliation against him for leading a Democratic charge to block the nomination of former Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler to be Youngkin’s secretary of natural and historic resources.The General Assembly will have a chance to override the vetoes when it reconvenes later this month. Doing so would take a 2/3 vote in both chambers. The vetoed measures span a wide range of policy areas. A few of the highlights include:
- — A bill that would have prohibited high school student athletes from receiving compensation in exchange for the use of their name, image, or likeness.
- — A bill that would have prohibited heavy truck operators from using cruise control or compression-release engine breaks while driving in active snow, sleet or freezing rain. The measure was aimed at preventing a repeat of the snowy traffic logjams on Interstate 95 in January. Youngkin said the bill would impose burdens on the trucking industry and interstate transportation without any demonstrable benefit.
- — A measure that would set a three-year statute of limitations on the collection of medical debt. In his veto statement, Youngkin said he was committed to reducing the burden of medical debt but thought the legislation would “inadvertently” capture other forms of debt.
- — A measure that would have prohibited insurers from including a surcharge on the insurance premiums of tobacco users. “Requiring non-tobacco users to cover the increased healthcare costs associated with tobacco use is not a policy I can support,” Youngkin said.
Patrick Lyoya’s mother says she is ‘surprised and astonished’ her son was killed in America --The mother of Patrick Lyoya, who was fatally shot by police in Grand Rapids, Mich., earlier this month, said during a Thursday afternoon press conference that she was “surprised and astonished” her son was killed in the U.S.In the press conference recorded by local ABC affiliate WZZM, Dorcas Lyoya appeared with her family and national civil rights attorney Ben Crump to call for charges to be filed against the officer responsible for the fatal shooting.Dorcas Lyoya, who emigrated from the Republic of Congo to the U.S. in 2014 with her family, was visibly crying during the press conference. She said Patrick, 26, was her “beloved” first-born son, and explained she and her family fled their home country because of war and believed they had come to a safe place in America.“I’m surprised and astonished to see that it was here my son was killed with a bullet,” she said, according to a translator at the press conference. “And for that, I need justice for my son.”Patrick Lyoya was stopped by a Grand Rapids Police Department officer around 8:11 a.m. on April 4 for an issue with his license plate. According to videos released by police on Wednesday, Lyoya immediately got out of the car to talk to the officer, who asked for identification.Lyoya could be seen in video footage telling a passenger to retrieve his license, then closing the door of his car without getting it and stepping away from the vehicle. The footage shows that when the officer moved to intercept him, Lyoya ran.After a brief pursuit, the officer could be seen bringing Lyoya to the ground, where there was a brief struggle and the officer appeared to miss two times with his taser and told Lyoya to stop grabbing the taser. Eventually, the video showed the officer firing a single shot into the back of Lyoya’s head.
Woman who falsely accused Black teen of stealing her phone pleads guilty to hate crime - A woman who falsely accused a Black teenager of stealing her cellular phone at a New York hotel in a 2020 incident that went viral has pleaded guilty to a hate crime. Prosecutors said on Monday that Miya Ponsetto has pleaded guilty to unlawful imprisonment in the second degree as a hate crime related to the incident, adding the charge can be reduced if Ponsetto stays out of trouble for two years. In December 2020, a viral video showed Ponsetto harassing and tackling Keyon Harrold Jr., the son of jazz musician Keyon Harrold, in the lobby of the Arlo SoHo Hotel, accusing him of stealing her phone. NBC News reported that Ponsetto left the phone in an Uber, and it was later returned to her. Ponsetto was arrested in her home state of California days after the incident after the New York Police Department (NYPD) released surveillance video footage in an effort to locate her. The Harrold family filed a lawsuit against Ponsetto last March alleging that the now 23-year-old woman racially profiled the teen. Ponestto, who was dubbed by social media users as “SoHo Karen,” has repeatedly denied that she racially profiled Harrold Jr. “Ms. Ponsetto displayed outrageous behavior. As a Black man, I have personally experienced racial profiling countless times in my life and I sympathize with the young man victimized in this incident,” Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg Jr. said in a statement. “This plea ensures appropriate accountability for Ms. Ponsetto by addressing underlying causes for her behavior and ensuring this conduct does not reoccur.”
University of Texas Student Who Lost High School Valedictorian Title After School Said It Miscalculated Her Grades Now Expected to Graduate with Hardly Any Loan Debt - A Texas student, who thought she graduated No. 1 in her high school senior class four years ago until officials realized they made an error in calculating the rankings and dropped her to the third spot, is preparing to leave college with almost no loan debt. She walks away with the financial blessing thanks to a GoFundMe campaign that raised tens of thousands of dollars to replace the state benefit she lost by not being the valedictorian at her high school in suburban Dallas. WFAA reports Destiny Brannon raised $40,000 from her crowdfunding effort that she began in 2018 when she discovered she would have to pay for her first year of tuition at the University of Texas at Austin. As a graduating DeSoto High School senior, Brannon had been relying on a Texas state law that states if a student graduates with valedictorian honors from a high school accredited by the Texas Education Agency, their first-year tuition at a public college or university will be waived. However, after the commencement ceremony where she received the valedictorian recognition and gave the class speech, the young scholar was informed the district had miscalculated the class end of the year transcripts and her actual position landed her in third place. At the time she said, “It’s embarrassing, because I got so much publicity from them on being valedictorian, only to be told that’s a mistake.” Embarrassment aside, she was no longer eligible for the state’s scholarship assistance that would have helped allay the costs for her freshman year at the university which was (at the time) $25,134. Brannon’s mother believed the school revised the rankings criteria in retaliation to Brannon’s graduation speech which criticized the school’s “subpar teachers” and the district’s prioritization of athletics over academics.
Student loan forgiveness is welfare for middle and upper classes -The Democrats are hellbent to transfer money to a section of their voting base: Relatively young liberal arts college graduates, many of whom belong to the upper and middle classes. The numerous student loan pauses, as well as demands to fully forgive student loans, have little to do with the pandemic and everything to do with a political goal ahead of the 2022 midterms. After all, if the economy is as strong as White House press secretary Jen Psaki constantly insists, why would the college-educated need a sixth pause in payments or full bailout? Should President Biden take the next step and issue blanket student loan forgiveness, as many in his party are loudly demanding, there would be severe economic impacts at the expense of working taxpayers — including minority and blue-collar workers, who would be forced to foot the massive bill. Contrary to the picture painted by left-wingers of greedy banksters taking advantage of impressionable young students, 92 percent of student loan debt is held by the federal government — not by private banks. Most of these loans offer an interest amnesty until after graduation. Furthermore, the richest 40 percent of the American public holds 60 percent of the student loan debt. By 2019, over half of student loan debt was held by those with master’s or doctorate degrees; in other words, those who are typically in the best financial position to pay off their loans are the ones benefiting from the successive student loan repayment pauses. The student loan pauses have cost taxpayers $120 billion so far — and the latest one will tack on another $17 billion. If student loan debt were fully forgiven, there would be an almost $2 trillion bailout. If widespread student loan forgiveness materializes, efforts to limit it from those earning over a certain amount would not work as intended. New graduates often work at lower-wage jobs or internships for the time being; future large-salary earners would see their loans wiped away. In time, most of those who would receive debt forgiveness would earn more — much more — than their high school diploma counterparts. Overall, those with college degrees earn $900,000 more over their lifetimes than those with just high school diplomas. For those with graduate degrees, the gap is even more stark: Men in that cohort earn $1.5 million more, and women earn $1.1 million more over their working years. The largest share of the benefits flows most heavily to those who generally need it the least.
Bad Mouthing the Holders of Student Loans - Angry Bear -- Tough Guy, senator Mitch McConnell making political hay over President Joe Biden extending a student loan moratorium for a few more months. The mistake Joe is making or has made is not deciding what to do. It is getting late in the game of politics.Here is senator Mitch McConnell.“I think in this country, it’s important to remind people that we ought to pay our debts,” McConnell opined. “We all pay our debts. And with regard to extending the moratorium, quoting Larry Summers again, he said it’s exactly the wrong thing to do in the middle of this over-heated economy producing this rampant inflation.”You already know my thoughts on why inflation is so high. Lets take a moment and review who Mitch McConnell and “Dana Perino” are referring to on repaying student loans. Dana did mention we are still in the midst of a Covid pandemic.Mitch is not noticing, the largest amount of debt per person is with people 40 years and older. It is not the youngsters . . .Literally, the people having these loans have been penalized by a system which has no relief on a loan similar to what a new pickup truck costs in 2020 or $39,000. In many cases of bankruptcy, you have a chance to keep your vehicle and lose your debt. If late on a payment old GMAC would hit you with a late fee of $30. The car payment did not double and neither did the loan balance. Most have tried to pay back the original loan amounts.Let me break this down a little further.Slightly more than half of the student loan holders who are 35 years old or older, hold 62% of the total loan debt. Greater than half of that debt is the result of penalties, interest on penalties, consolidation fees, and other fees. Lets, take this a step further and look at older versus younger borrowers. The total dollar amount is $489.3 million. Fifty-four percent of the borrows are 50 years or older and are holding 78% of the total amount. This again is well beyond the original principal and includes everything I mentioned above inflating the total.A more complete picture can be seen below. I had updated Alan Collinge’s of Student Loan Justice Org. data. There are fewer young people than older people holding debt. The likelihood of collecting the 1+ trillion dollars are slim. The penalties being exacted on this population hurt their productivity to contribute more to the economy.This is more of Republicans turning up the heat for an election. Mitch McConnell and Republicans could care less about student loan debt or having an educated constituency.
STDs are surging. The funding to fight them is not. - Gonorrhea and syphilis cases reached record levels during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to data released Tuesday from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. The latest figures — part of an ongoing upward trend — follow Congress’ decision last month to provide far less funding to sexual health clinics that provide free and subsidized testing for sexually transmitted diseases, education, contraception and other services than providers say is needed to reverse the current course. Gonorrhea cases increased 10 percent in 2020, and syphilis infections were up 7 percent. Congenital syphilis, which had all but disappeared in the U.S. at the beginning of the century, increased 15 percent in 2020, contributing to at least 149 stillbirths and infant deaths that year. And while the new report shows that chlamydia cases declined 13 percent in 2020, top health officials believe that reflects a drop in screenings for the frequently asymptomatic disease, not an actual reduction in the number of infections. CDC officials told reporters on a call Tuesday that their not-yet-released preliminary data from 2021 indicate the situation has worsened, with higher rates of syphilis and congenital syphilis than in 2020. “STDs had already been increasing for quite some time, but Covid-19 exacerbated the factors that contribute to it in many ways,” Leandro Mena, the CDC’s director of STD Prevention, told POLITICO in a separate phone interview. “We have had more than a decade of decreasing public health funding that’s caused a dropoff in STD screening, prevention, education and other health services. We’ve also been dealing with an increase in substance use that has been linked to less safe sexual practices.” While most STDs are preventable and curable if patients are diagnosed and given medication in time, people who go untreated could see severe and potentially fatal consequences — a rising risk during the Covid-19 pandemic, when many clinics paused in-person testing and millions lost their health insurance.
‘Increasingly poisoned’ drug supply contributing to surge in Northeast Ohio overdose deaths, officials say – A spike in overdose deaths in early December prompted Cuyahoga County Medical Examiner Dr. Thomas Gilson to issue a public health alert for the second consecutive month.At least eight people died of suspected drug overdoses in the county on Dec. 2. A month earlier, Gilson issued a public health alert after 12 people died from suspected overdoses between Nov. 6-7.“Much like a month ago, yesterday’s overdose cluster is very concerning.” Gilson said in a Dec. 3 statement. “Again, the public needs to be aware that using street drugs in and around Cuyahoga County is deadly. “Resources are available to lessen the dangers, but the simple fact is there is only one sure way to avoid these tragic ends. Get yourself into treatment before it is too late.”
People at risk of future heart disease and stroke may be at greater risk for severe COVID-19 - New research to be presented at this year's European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases (ECCMID) in Lisbon, Portugal (23–26 April), suggests that people with elevated risk of developing a stroke or heart attack over the next 10 years (but without existing cardiovascular disease [CVD]) who contract COVID-19, are nearly three times as likely to be hospitalized and require treatment in intensive care, and six times as likely to die from COVID-19, compared to those at low cardiovascular risk. The study was conducted using data from the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, and included information on almost a million adults from across England. The researchers say the findings emphasize the importance of COVID-19 vaccination and investing in strategies to improve cardiovascular health that could reduce the severity of COVID-19 across the population. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, chronic health conditions such as CVD have been associated with the most severe outcomes including hospitalizations and deaths. CVD includes coronary heart disease (angina and heart attack), stroke, and transient ischemic attacks (mini-strokes). However, people at raised cardiovascular risk, but without existing CVD, have not been identified as a risk group for severe COVID-19. For this study, researchers used the electronic medical records of 949,973 adults (aged 40–84 years) registered at GP practices across England to calculate the incidence and risk of COVID-19 (based on laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2) as well as severe COVID-19 (defined as death, intensive care unit [ICU] admission and hospitalization) among adults at raised and low cardiovascular risk. To estimate a person's risk of future CVD, researchers calculated a score called "QRISK3" that combines a range of factors including body mass index, smoking history, blood pressure, cholesterol, age, social deprivation and ethnicity. Those estimated to have a 10% or higher chance of a heart attack or stroke within the next 10 years were classed as at "raised risk," and those with less than a 10% chance, at "low risk."
New study shows COVID-19 can cause brain inflammation and small bleeds -- A new study published in Nature Communications has offered the most comprehensive investigation to date into the effects of COVID-19 on the brain using nonhuman primates. The study found SARS-CoV-2 infection, regardless of disease severity, can lead to neuroinflammation and small bleeds which may account for many of the neurological symptoms reported by patients. The study was led by Tracey Fischer from the Tulane National Primate Research Center. Recognizing the potential future need to develop nonhuman primate models for COVID-19 Fischer’s research began early in pandemic. The team’s initial work revealed SARS-CoV-2 infections caused microhemorrhages in the brain. These preliminary findings came so early in the pandemic that experts not affiliated with the work were skeptical. At that point those neurological symptoms had not yet been detected in human patients. “You see the pathology, and it’s so distinct and so profound,” Fischer said. “I’ve been looking at the central nervous system for decades, so long that you know when something doesn’t appear normal and appears to be in line with the infection.” Fischer and her team spent an additional year validating those initial findings, as other researchers began to find evidence of similar neurological symptoms in humans. Control animals were studied and research protocols were refined in order to affirm those initially detected brain changes were directly linked to the coronavirus infection. Alongside the small bleeds, the researchers found severe widespread brain inflammation and neuron damage. Fischer said the neurological damage was not linked to the severity of respiratory disease. This means many animals displayed only mild COVID-19 symptoms yet still experienced neurological damage.
Glasses and risk of COVID-19 transmission – analysis of the Virus Watch Community Cohort study. MedRxIv - Respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, can infect the eyes or pass into the nose via the nasolacrimal duct. The importance of transmission via the eyes is unknown but might plausibly be reduced in those who wear glasses. Previous studies have mainly focussed on protective eyewear in healthcare settings. Participants from the Virus Watch prospective community cohort study in England and Wales responded to a questionnaire on the use of glasses and contact lenses. This included frequency of use, purpose, and likelihood of wearing a mask with glasses. Infection was confirmed through data linkage with Second Generation Surveillance System (Pillar 1 and Pillar 2), weekly questionnaires to self-report positive polymerase chain reaction or lateral flow results, and, for a subgroup, monthly capillary blood testing for antibodies (nucleocapsid and spike). A multivariable logistic regression model, controlling for age, sex, income and occupation, was used to identify odds of infection depending on the frequency and purpose of using glasses or contact lenses.19,166 Virus Watch participants responded to the questionnaire, with 13,681 (71.3%, CI 70.7-72.0) reporting they wore glasses. A multivariable logistic regression model showed a 15% lower odds of infection for those who reported using glasses always for general use (OR 0.85, 95% 0.77-0.95, p = 0.002) compared to those who never wore glasses. The protective effect was reduced in those who said that wearing glasses interfered with mask wearing. No protective effect was seen for contact lens wearers. People who wear glasses have a moderate reduction in risk of COVID-19 infection highlighting the importance of the eye as a route of infection. Eye protection may make a valuable contribution to the reduction of transmission in community and healthcare settings.
High rate of BA.1, BA.1.1 and BA.2 in triple vaccinated - Booster vaccine doses offer protection against severe COVID-19 caused by omicron but are less effective against infection. Characteristics such as serological correlates of protection, viral abundance and clearance of omicron infections in triple vaccinated individuals are scarce. We conducted a 4-week twice-weekly SARS-CoV-2 qPCR screening shortly after an mRNA vaccine booster in 375 healthcare workers. Anti-Spike IgG levels and neutralization titers were determined at study start. qPCR-positive participants were sampled repeatedly for two weeks and monitored for symptoms. In total 82 (cumulative incidence 22%) omicron infections were detected, divided between BA.1, BA.1.1 and BA.2. Only 10% of infected participants remained asymptomatic. Viral load peaked at day 3 and live virus could be detected for up to 9 days after first PCR-positive sample. Presence of symptoms correlated to elevated viral load (p<0.0001), but despite resolution of symptoms most participants showed Ct levels <30 at day 9. While post-booster antibody titers were similar in those with and without subsequent breakthrough infection (p>0.05), high antibody titers were linked to reduced viral load (p<0.01) and time to viral clearance (p<0.01). No significant differences were observed for viral load and time to viral clearance between BA.1, BA.1.1 and BA.2 infected individuals. Conclusion: We report high incidence of omicron infections despite recent booster vaccination in triple vaccinated individuals. Vaccine-induced antibody titres seem to play a limited role in risk of omicron infection. High viral load and secretion of live virus for up to nine days may increase transmission in a triple vaccinated population.
Pfizer says it will apply soon for kids’ booster shot Pfizer and BioNTech said Thursday that a third dose of their COVID-19 vaccine in children ages 5-11 produced a “high” immune response, and that they will apply for authorization for a booster dose in the age group soon. Pfizer said in a news release that a third dose of the vaccine in those 5-11 produced a 36-fold increase in levels of neutralizing antibodies against the omicron variant, compared to two doses. Antibody levels against the original version of the virus increased by six-fold. “These data reinforce the potential function of a third dose of the vaccine in maintaining high levels of protection against the virus in this age group,” Pfizer said. The company plans to submit a request to the Food and Drug Administration for authorization for a booster dose in children 5-11 “in the coming days.” News of a possible booster for children 5-11 comes as there are still no doses at all authorized for children under five, though Pfizer has previously said it expects results in April from trials for that age group. The booster dose for children 5-11 “was well tolerated with no new safety signals observed,” Pfizer said. Read more here.
New study examines parent hesitancy toward COVID-19 vaccines for children - A study published last month in Parent Education and Counseling outlines that the main drivers of parent hesitancy regarding child COVID-19 vaccination include perceived safety and efficacy of the vaccines and lower severity of illness in children. Many vaccine-hesitant parents may be open to vaccination in the future and welcome additional discussion and data, the researchers found. Data for the study were collected from February 2021 through May 2021 from parents living in six geographically diverse locations. The COVID-19 Exposure and Family Impact Survey assessed perceived susceptibility and severity to adverse outcomes from the pandemic. Semi-structured interviews assessed perceptions about benefits and risks of vaccinating children. Results were based on 50 parents of 106 children, newborn-17 years; half were Spanish-speaking and half English-speaking. Among participants, 62% were hesitant about vaccinating their children against COVID-19. Efficacy and safety were the main themes that emerged as some parents perceived them as benefits while others perceived them as risks to vaccination. Parent hesitancy often relied on social media, and was influenced by narrative accounts of vaccination experiences. Many parents cited the lower risk of negative outcomes from COVID-19 among children, when compared with adults. Some also cited inaccurate and constantly changing information about COVID-19 vaccines.
Health care expert Gregory Travis speaks on the impacts of COVID-19 on children, misinformation and the cover-up of data - In this sweeping interview, health care expert and data analyst Gregory Travis exposes the lies and misinformation that have been spread about COVID-19, in particular its impacts on children. He also documents the steady erosion of data tracking over the past year, which qualitatively deepened during the Omicron surge this winter. The video is broken up into nine distinct chapters focused on different aspects of these themes.
Food insecurity doubled likelihood of foregoing or delaying medical care during first year of COVID-19 pandemic in U.S. - Individuals experiencing food insecurity—a household’s lack of consistent access to adequate food resources—in the U.S. during the first year of the pandemic were more than twice as likely to forego or delay medical care due to cost concerns compared to food-secure households, according to a survey led by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Conducted in December 2020, the survey also found that racial and ethnic minority groups and lower-income individuals were significantly more likely to face food insecurity compared to whites and higher-income individuals. The findings were published online April 13 in the American Journal of Public Health. For their study, the researchers conducted a nationally representative online survey of 8,481 adults aged 18 and older between December 15 and December 21, 2020. The researchers found that nearly one in five adults—18.8 percent—reported experiencing food insecurity at some point during the previous 30 days. Of those experiencing food insecurity, nearly 3 in 10 (27.4 percent) reported delaying or foregoing medical care in the last month. In addition to delaying any medical care during the prior month, individuals with food insecurity were also two to three times more likely to have delayed or foregone specific types of care during the first nine months of the pandemic, including skipping a treatment or test recommended by a doctor, not going to a recommended follow-up visit, and not filling a prescription. The link between food insecurity and foregoing medical treatment is well documented. This study is thought to be the first to investigate this relationship during the pandemic.
Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions What is the expected trend in COVID-19 mortality if US states were to lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs) at different times over the remainder of 2022? A key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission. Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs. In this simulation modeling study, lifting NPIs was likely to result in rebounding epidemics regardless of the delay in lifting. The degree of population-level immunity was associated with the size of the rebounding peak in incident deaths. This simulation study found no path to the end of the COVID-19 pandemic that avoided difficult trade-offs between prolonged NPIs and increased COVID-19 mortality following their removal.
FDA authorizes 1st breath test for COVID-19 infection --The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday issued an emergency use authorization for what it said is the first device that can detect COVID-19 in breath samples. The InspectIR COVID-19 Breathalyzer is about the size of a piece of carry-on luggage, the FDA said, and can be used in doctor's offices, hospitals and mobile testing sites. The test, which can provide results in less than three minutes, must be carried out under the supervision of a licensed health care provider. Dr. Jeff Shuren, director of the FDA's Center for Devices and Radiological Health, called the device "yet another example of the rapid innovation occurring with diagnostic tests for COVID-19." The FDA said the device was 91.2% accurate at identifying positive test samples and 99.3% accurate at identifying negative test samples. "InspectIR expects to be able to produce approximately 100 instruments per week, which can each be used to evaluate approximately 160 samples per day," the agency said. "At this level of production, testing capacity using the InspectIR COVID-19 Breathalyzer is expected to increase by approximately 64,000 samples per month."
Fauci Predicts Fall Coronavirus Surge as BA.2, or ‘Stealth Omicron,’ Sends Infections Creeping Up -Leading infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci this week predicted that a fall coronavirussurge is likely as cases in the U.S. start creeping up due to the highly transmissible BA.2 variant. Fauci told Bloomberg TV that he believes "it is likely that we will see a surge in the fall." "I would think that we should expect that we are going to see some increase in cases as you get to the colder weather in the fall," he said. He added that he would not be surprised if coronavirus cases increase over the next couple of weeks. His comments come as the average of new daily cases across the U.S. is already rising slightly. The trend is not unexpected now that BA.2, or “stealth omicron,” is the dominant strain spreading in the U.S. and worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. The daily average of infections is up to about 26,600 as of Wednesday, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s a small increase from an average of 24,800 new cases reported on March 29. The mild uptick comes after months of downward trends since the omicron wave peaked at over 800,000 daily cases on average in mid-January. Now, the majority of states are reporting increasing infections, including New York, Maine, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Washington and Oregon. The average of daily deaths from the coronavirus continues to decline, however, dropping to numbers not seen since last summer. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky acknowledged earlier this week that some areas are seeing increasing infections and hospitalizations. “If we look more closely at the local level, we find a handful of counties where we are seeing increases in both cases and markers of more severe disease, like hospitalizations and in-patient bed capacity, which have resulted in an increased COVID-19 community level in some areas,” she said at a press briefing.
U.S. Sewer Data Warns of a New Bump in Covid Cases After Lull - A wastewater network that monitors for Covid-19 trends is warning that cases are once again rising in many parts of the U.S., according to an analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data by Bloomberg. More than a third of the CDC’s wastewater sample sites across the U.S. showed rising Covid-19 trends in the period ending March 1 to March 10, though reported cases have stayed near a recent low. The number of sites with rising signals of Covid-19 cases is nearly twice what it was during the Feb. 1 to Feb. 10 period, when the wave of omicron-variant cases was fading rapidly.
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Increase as BA.2, or ‘Stealth Omicron,’ Spreads -Coronavirus cases in the U.S. are increasing, a trend that leading infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci said was “not unexpected” given that mitigation measures like mask wearing have largely fallen by the wayside. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. is averaging nearly 28,200 new infections per day. That’s up from an average of 24,800 new cases on March 29. Still, it’s just a fraction of the average peak of more than 800,000 new infections reported in mid-January during the omicron wave. Deaths appear to be ticking slightly upward as well. As of April 8, the average was 516 deaths per day, according to CDC data. That’s up from an average of 472 reported just one day prior. Fauci said the increase in cases is a concern but that it wasn’t surprising given the highly transmissible BA.2 variant is spreading and mitigation measures have been dropped. “This is not unexpected, that you're going to see an uptick when you pull back on the mitigation methods,” Fauci said on ABC’s “This Week.” He said that officials are watching the situation ”very, very carefully,” adding that he does not believe that deaths and hospitalizations will rise in a comparable way. Fauci also emphasized that CDC guidance says “that if we do start seeing an uptick, particularly of hospitalizations, we may need to revert back to being more careful and having more utilizations of masks indoors.” But it remains to be seen whether jurisdictions will respond to rising cases by reimplementing masking measures.
COVID-19 cases rising in Northeast, partly fueled by BA.2, experts say - ABC News -- As COVID-19 cases continue to tick up in the United States, the Northeast appears to be fueling the increase.Four of the five states with the highest seven-day case rates per 100,000 are in the Northeast. In the 10 states with the highest seven-day rates, seven are Northeastern, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Rhode Island currently has the highest seven-day case rate at 172.4 cases per 100,000 people. This is nearly three times higher than the national rate of 59.4 cases per 100,000 people. As of Friday, the Ocean State has also seen its average daily number of cases increase 53% over a two-week period from 170 per day to 260 per day, CDC data shows. Other Northeastern states seeing increases include Vermont, New York, New Jersey, Maine and Connecticut. In particular, New York and New Jersey have seen their average daily cases increase by 64%, the CDC data shows. Experts said one of the reasons for the rise in cases is the spread of BA.2, a subvariant of the original omicron variant that is more transmissible. In the Northeast, BA.2 accounts for more than 84% of COVID-19 cases that have undergone genomic sequencing, more than any other region in the country, according to the CDC. Dr. Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist with the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told ABC News that early evidence suggests people who were infected with the original omicron variant during the previous wave may now have some immunity against BA.2. He suggested states that were able to have better control of cases earlier may currently be more vulnerable to infections. "States that did a good job controlling infections with mandates, most in the Northeast and West, are more susceptible now with BA.2," he said.
Philadelphia brings back mask mandate as covid cases rise - Public health officials in Philadelphia announced on Monday that the city’s indoor mask mandate would return beginning April 18 ascoronavirus cases there rise, making it the first major U.S. city to reinstate a mask mandate this spring.“Our city remains open,” Mayor Jim Kenney said in a statement. “We can still go about our daily lives and visit the people and places we love while masking in indoor public spaces. I’m optimistic that this step will help us control the case rate.”The return to indoor masking comes just over a month after Philadelphia dropped its mask mandate — a move undertaken by many other cities and counties that had similar restrictions in place at the start of 2022. Most of those restrictions lifted after a significant dip in cases after the omicron surge peaked in January.Cases in some places — including the District and Philadelphia — appear to be modestly rising again, driven in part by the spread of the BA. 2 variant, which has become dominant in the United States. Although cases are ticking up, the numbers remain far lower than they were during the omicron surge in January.Philadelphia has a set of criteria that determine when covid restrictions will go into place. On Monday, officials announced that the city had moved from the “all clear” level to “level 2,” which requires residents to wear masks in indoor public spaces.The mask mandate will be lifted again when the city meets the criteria to return to the “all clear” level, officials said.Although an indoor mask mandate is not recommended in Philadelphia by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s standards, local officials defended reverting to a higher level of caution on Monday. “The decisions that we’re making here in Philly have to do with local conditions, and the CDC has been clear in messaging… that local conditions do matter,” Health Commissioner Cheryl Bettigole said at a news conference on Monday.
Covid in DC: What to know about the risks of Omicron and BA.2 - The speaker of the House is in quarantine. Cabinet secretaries are working from home. The Gridiron dinner was a superspreader event, and the West Wing is a hot spot. The surge of Covid-19 infections in Washington this week has many wondering: Is it safe enough to hold indoor, public events again? Are we returning to normal or throwing caution to the wind after more than two years of isolation? The answer, like much else throughout the coronavirus pandemic, is complicated because it depends on individuals’ personal risk thresholds. And no public outing bears zero risk — especially a formal event like the Gridiron dinner, held inside a hotel basement — with variants as transmissible as Omicron and its sibling, BA.2, circulating widely. “A tuxedo does not prevent infection,” Omicron BA.2 is the dominant variant of Covid-19 in the U.S and spreads through the air the same way other coronavirus variants have since late 2019, when the pandemic began, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. It’s proven to be far more infectious than the original strain. “It’s probably that there’s more of it being released into the air, or it takes exposure to less of it to get infected, or it evades the immune system better,” Marr said of BA.2. While this strain is more transmissible than its predecessors, it’s associated with less severe disease and comes at a time when the country has plenty of vaccines, drugs and other therapeutics to combat it. Being fully vaccinated and up to date on booster shots remains the best way to protect yourself from a severe case of Covid. But with the amount of time that has passed since many people were originally immunized and then boosted, plus the evolution of the virus since its late 2019 debut, the vaccines aren’t preventing infection as well as they once did. Still, the vaccines continue to perform well, preventing the worst outcomes — ending up in the hospital, on a ventilator and death — which many infectious disease experts say should be the goal of the U.S. vaccination effort. “This Omicron and its son of Omicron, BA.2, are so highly contagious that they can still infect you despite the fact that you have been vaccinated and boosted,” Schaffner said. “For the average person, that means you will have few symptoms or perhaps no symptoms at all. You will not get seriously ill.”
Coronavirus dashboard for April 13: watching the BA.2 “bump” - The BA.2 “bump” is upon us (and hopefully a “bump” is all it is). Let’s take a look at where we stand. Cases bottomed 8 days ago at 28,378. As of yesterday they had increased to 32,835: Hospitalizations have continued to decline, and at 9859 are the lowest since March 2020 when the pandemic was just beginning: Deaths are at 527, just above their 10 month low of 498 the previous day. Only in June and July 2021 have deaths been lower than this. The below graph shows the long term view of both deaths (bold line) and cases (thin line), scaled separately: Each successive wave has been *relatively* less lethal (i.e., deaths vs. cases) than the previous one, with the exception (slightly) of Delta last summer. Note there was a slight increase - a “bump” in Topol’s terminology - last April, during Alpha, that was focused on Michigan. I suspect this is because ever increasing percentages of the population have been vaccinated and/or infected, priming the body’s immune system for a better response. The CDC reported yesterday that as of last week BA.2 accounted for 86% of all new infections: Regionally, in the Northwest and Southwest BA.2 is 88% of new cases; in the upper Midwest it is 84%; in New England it is 90%; and in NY and NJ it is 92%: Here’s what the level of new cases looks like broken down by Census Region: As you can see, cases are rising in every region (except for the South, where the last few days’ increase is due to a data dump by Texas - otherwise it is still decreasing). Cases started increasing in the Northeast first, 4 weeks ago, and that region has the biggest increase. Because BA.2 started earlier and has been furthest along in the Northeast, and because in Europe BA.2 cases have typically peaked once BA.2 in the country reached 90% of all cases, here is a more detailed breakdown of the Northeastern States over the past 8 weeks: So far there is no sign of BA.2 peaking in any of those States. Since in European countries the turnaround tended to occur quickly, as in within a week, hopefully we will start to see signs of a peak in some Northeastern States shortly.
COVID Numbers New York: BA2 Subvariants Fuel Community Spread – Two omicron subvariants of the highly transmissible BA.2 strain are fueling "significant community spread" in parts of New York, state health officials say, calling their data the first charting such subvariant transmission rates in the U.S.The emergence of subvariants BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 both sublineages of the BA.2, strain that some have described as the most contagious version of COVID yet, comes as that parent subvariant intensifies its already-dominant grip on America and New York, where data shows it's circulating at a faster rate than nationally.New York state data puts BA.2's prevalence at 80.6% of COVID infections, thoughrecently updated reports from the CDC suggest its share could be even higher. And early findings indicate the subvariants could be up to 27% higher than BA.2, which was said to be up to 60% more contagious than the original omicron strain that overtook the globe, leading to unprecedented case rates earlier this year.Over the last few weeks, state health officials say they've been focusing on higher than average infection rates in Central New York, and they believe the highly contagious subvariants are fueling viral spread in that region. For the month of March, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 rose to collectively comprise more than 70% prevalence in Central New York and more than 20% prevalence in the neighboring Finger Lakes region, the state said in an advisory issued Wednesday. Data for April indicate that levels in Central New York are now above 90%. While the evidence indicates the region is facing the most extensive subvariant-linked community spread in the U.S., health officials say there's no proof of increased disease severity linked to those strains. The data is continually assessed, though.
Governor DeWine sick with COVID-19 - Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced on Friday afternoon that he has been diagnosed with COVID-19 by his personal physician. Gov. DeWine has been experiencing mild symptoms such as a runny nose, head ache, body aches, and a sore throat, according to a media release from the governor’s office. Early this evening, Gov. DeWine received a monoclonal antibody treatment. To follow CDC COVID-19 diagnosis protocol, he is in quarantine. However, First Lady Fran DeWine is experiencing no symptoms and has tested negative, the media release said. Both Gov. DeWine and Mrs. DeWine are fully vaccinated, each having received the two-dose vaccination and a booster shot, the release concluded.
Ohio reports 4,808 new COVID-19 cases in past week — The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday reported 4,808 new COVID-19 cases for the past week, an increase of nearly 1,000 over the 3,828 new cases reported last week. Ohio averaged about 687 new coronavirus infections over the past seven days, but despite the increase this week, numbers are still in line with a trend since early March where cases per day have been well under 1,000. New infections haven’t been this low since July 2021. Pfizer wants approval for COVID booster for kids 5-11 This is the fifth release of weekly cases since ODH switched from daily reporting. The change coincided with new infections continuing at a low level after the omicron variant wave. Hospitalization, death and vaccine reporting are also weekly now. The 317 hospitalizations reported by ODH in the past seven days (about 45 per day) are 60 more than last week. 100 more Ohioans died of COVID-19 in the past week, a decline from 124 deaths last week and 249 deaths two weeks ago. 100 deaths are the fewest reported in a week since Ohio reported 75 one week in mid-August. *Ohio Department of Health reports weekly, on Thursdays. 7,161 Ohioans started the COVID-19 vaccination process in the past seven days, per ODH data. Another 8,804 finished vaccination by getting their second dose. Around 6 in 10 Ohioans are partially or fully vaccinated.
New omicron variant combines BA.2 with original BA.1 strain. Should California be worried about omicron XE? - Even as the highly transmissible BA.2 omicron subvariant extends its dominance across the U.S., including the western region that incorporates California, a new coronavirus mashup combining BA.2 and the original omicron strain is gaining attention.Omicron XE, which was first detected in the United Kingdom, has been found in the U.S. and, most recently, in Japan. While much is still unknown about the subvariant and what effect it will have on COVID-19’s spread, here’s what we know so far.The XE variant is what experts call a “recombinant” of the BA.1 and BA.2 variants. Its name derives from the “X” prefix assigned for recombinants, said Stacia Wyman, senior genomics scientist at the Innovative Genomics Institute at UC Berkeley.The coronavirus group of viruses make recombinants “pretty readily,” according to Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences. However, whether the recombinant can be detected depends on whether the two parent strains are sufficiently different, she said.Wyman said the XE subvariant likely arose from a person infected with both the BA.1 and BA.2 versions of the virus. “When the virus was replicating, there was an error and the two viruses combined,” she explained. “Then the combined virus replicates and is spread to other people.”The first part of XE’s genome sequence is BA.1, “and then changes into BA.2 for the rest of the genome,” she said. The S gene, or spike protein — which latches onto healthy cells and causes infection — comes from BA.2. However, Wyman said it’s not known yet if someone with a previous BA.2 infection would have some resulting protection from XE.
COVID far from becoming endemic: WHO --COVID-19 is far from becoming an endemic disease and could still trigger large epidemics around the globe, the World Health Organization said Thursday. WHO emergencies director Michael Ryan said it was also wrong to think that if COVID-19 did settle down and become endemic, that would mean the end of the problem. "I certainly do not believe we've reached anything close to an endemic situation with this virus," Ryan told a live question-and-answer session on the WHO's social media channels. He said it had not settled down into any seasonal pattern or transmission pattern, and was "still quite volatile, still capable of causing huge epidemics. "That is not an endemic disease yet." He cited tuberculosis and malaria as endemic diseases that still killed millions of people per year. "Don't believe that endemic equals it's over, it's mild or not a problem. That's not the case at all," Ryan said. WHO's COVID-19 technical lead Maria Van Kerkhove, who herself has caught the disease and is isolating in the United States, said the virus was circulating at a high level, causing "huge amounts of death and devastation". "We're still in the middle of this pandemic. We all wish that we weren't. But we are not in an endemic stage." Ryan explained that often, once-epidemic diseases settle down into an endemic pattern, focusing on a particular section of the population. He said they could often settle into becoming childhood diseases, such as measles and diphtheria, because "as new children are born, they are susceptible". But if vaccination levels drop, as has happened with measles, epidemics can break out again.
Bangor wastewater has among the highest levels of COVID-19 in the country -Wastewater testing shows a significant spike in COVID-19 in Bangor, with the city reporting among the highest virus concentrations among U.S. samples measured through the same testing method in the past six weeks.COVID-19 levels in the wastewater in Maine’s third-largest city are still lower than they were in January and early February during the winter omicron spike. But the rise is another indication that the virus may again be on the rise in Maine, as the state’s top public health official warned last week. It comes as the more contagious “stealth omicron” variant has become the dominant strain here over the past month. Most Maine counties have seen an increase in COVID-19 concentration in the wastewater the past two weeks, according to data from Biobot, a firm that tracks measurements in Maine and other states. That fits with a national trend. After dropping precipitously since late December, average effective virus concentrations in wastewater across the U.S. have picked up again in the past two weeks, Biobot data suggest. But the Bangor area saw the most significant jump of Maine municipalities last week, with the effective concentration of virus in the wastewater nearly doubling to reach its highest level since early February.
Ontario COVID-19 news: what is wastewater surveillance telling us? -With a lack of PCR testing available in Ontario, public health officials have pivoted to using other data sources to determine how the province is managing the spread of COVID-19. Part of that process is an analysis of infection in wastewater—information typically presented to the public in the form of a graph showing an upward or downward curve. The data provides a snapshot of community spread within a population—how much of the virus is found in a particular region or area. The wastewater signal is quite stable, Edwards said, but it depends on elements such as quantity of rainwater in the sample, who is using the toilet in each area, and what else is being mixed in the system. Another challenge is that there may be solid materials within the sample other than human feces, which is where the virus is found. This can include dirt, other organic compounds and animal excrement. However, with regular and duplicate sampling, experts say they are able to calculate the concentration of the virus within wastewater with strong accuracy. According to the wastewater data provided by the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, the province is currently experiencing a rise in COVID-19 infection. On their dashboard, a graph titled “province-wide COVID-19 Wastewater Signal” shows a significant upwards trajectory, with the standardized concentration of the virus returning to levels last seen around the Christmas holidays. covid wastewater A regional breakdown shows that same spike in all public health units – indicating the spread of COVID-19 during the sixth wave is not limited by geography. “What we're seeing in all jurisdictions across Ontario is the wastewater signal is going way up,” Dr. Lawrence Goodridge, a professor of food microbiology at the University of Guelph and another team leader for Ontario’s wastewater surveillance initiative, told CTV News Toronto. “(This) means that the amount of virus, the concentration of virus in the wastewater is increasing…that there's lots of people that are infected.” However, Goodridge notes that while wastewater data is accurate at determining virus concentration on a population level, it can’t tell us how many people are actually sick with COVID-19.
Saskatoon wastewater study shows huge jump in COVID-19 viral load - The latest wastewater study from the University of Saskatchewan shows a massive spike in Saskatoon's COVID-19 viral load, signalling the start of a new wave of infections. On Monday, researchers released their latest report, showing a 742 per cent increase in viral load taken from sewage samples in the city. Toxicology professor John Giesy said these latest numbers come after COVID surges in Ontario and Quebec, as well as the UK and China, all driven by the more-infectious BA-2 subvariant of Omicron. "Naively, or at least optimistically, based on the downward trajectory of the data for our three cities, I had hoped that our trend would be different, but alas it is not," read an email from Guesy. "As you can see, the data for all three cities that we monitor is not good." The samples are an average of three readings taken at the water treatment plant last week and help the healthcare system predict cases leading into the future. The study also found a 250 per cent increase in North Battleford's wastewater data and a 56 per cent increase in Prince Albert's viral load. The spike in wastewater numbers comes after several weeks of lower numbers. As a result, Giesy had predicted that the city's numbers would continue to decline. Giesy now says the situation is too fluid to predict what will happen from week to week, but said this latest information is very troubling. "What seems apparent is that there will continue to people infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the cities we monitor in here in Sask and there will continue to be pressure on the health care system for some months to come," he wrote.
Shanghai Reports 26,330 COVID-19 Cases, a New Record High – Shanghai Health Commission reported a total of 1,189 locally transmitted COVID-19 cases and 25,141 local asymptomatic cases this morning, Wednesday, April 13. That makes a total of 26,330 cases reported in Shanghai, a record high. The number is 2,988 more than the 23,342 reported yesterday, and 243 more than the 26,087 reported on Monday, the previous record high. Of the 1,189 local cases reported today, 867 tested positive while already quarantined in centralized isolation as close contacts of previous cases; 23 were converted from an asymptomatic case already in centralized isolation; while 299 tested positive while being screened as a part of risk groups (which basically constitutes the whole city by now). Of the 25,141 asymptomatic cases, 24,500 tested positive while already quarantined in centralized isolation as close contacts of previous cases, while 641 tested positive while being screened as a part of risk groups. That makes a total of 940 cases reported while not previously quarantined in centralized isolation, 582 more than the 358 reported yesterday, but 424 less than the record high of 1,364 reported on Sunday, April 3. The 299 local cases not previously quarantined in centralized isolation were in the following areas:
Shanghai Cases Exceed 26,000 Again as Covid Zero Resolve Holds - -- Shanghai posted a new daily record for Covid-19 cases, as much of the city remains under some kind of movement restrictions with ongoing disruptions to food and manufacturing supply chains. The city of 25 million saw 26,330 new infections on Tuesday, China Central Television said early Wednesday. That’s up from the 23,342 reported for Monday, and the previous all-time high of 26,087 on Sunday,as officials struggle to tame what has become China’s most significant virus crisis since the pandemic began. While curbs have been eased in some areas, the majority of the city remains under a tight lockdown that bars even outside exercise or shopping for essential items. Frustration is palpable, with food shortages continuing and access to non-Covid medical care impacted. Some residents have been confined to their apartment blocks for weeks, long before the official lockdown began on March 28 with an initial shutdown of the eastern half of the city. It was extended to all of Shanghai a few days later.
Evidence of PFAS in organic pasta sauces - Four popular organic pasta sauces have detectable levels of fluorine, an indicator of toxic PFAS, according to a new report from Mamavation.Partnering with EHN.org, the environmental wellness blog and communityMamavation tested 55 sauces and found levels of fluorine ranging from 10 parts per million (ppm) up to 21 ppm in four of the sauces: 365 Whole Foods Organic Tomato Basil Pasta Sauce, Muir Glen Organic Italian Herb Pasta Sauce, Organicville Italian Herb Pasta Sauce, and Trader Joe's Organic Tomato Basil Marinara. EHN.org partially funded the testing and Pete Myers, chief scientist of Environmental Health Sciences, which publishes Environmental Health News, reviewed the findings. While the testing doesn’t prove per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are in the sauces, fluorine is a strong indicator of the “forever chemicals”— which have been linked to everything from cancer to birth defects to lower vaccine effectiveness.The new investigation is the latest from Mamavation, which previously found fluorine in everyday products such as yoga pants and leggings and clean beauty brands' makeup.PFAS has been found in food before: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 2019reported PFAS in several types of food, including meats, seafood, and grocery store chocolate cake.However, Mamavation found evidence of the chemicals in brands that are marketed as organic. It's unclear how PFAS make it into certain foods, but due to widespread use of PFAS across industries, the chemicals can contaminate consumer goods though manufacturing lubricants and coatings, misidentified raw materials, pesticides, personal protective equipment, and plastic packaging.
Companies, not FDA, approve most chemicals in food - Roughly 99 percent of chemicals added to food since 2000 were approved for use by the chemical and food industry — not federal regulators — according to a new analysis from the Environmental Working Group.The analysis takes aim at a little-known loophole in laws governing the Food and Drug Administration that allows chemicals that are “generally recognized as safe” by their manufacturers to avoid FDA oversight. Originally intended to cover widely used ingredients like flour, vinegar and sugar, the loophole, known as GRAS, has been stretched over time to include human-made compounds that manufacturers say are safe for use in food.Under GRAS, manufacturers determine new chemicals are safe to put in the food supply and then choose whether or not to tell FDA about the decisions, often leaving FDA in the dark about compounds being added to food.GRAS is not the only regulatory option available to companies. They can also file something called a “food additive petition” with FDA asking the agency for permission to add a chemical to food. That process involves a rigorous agency review of the science showing a chemical’s safety and a notice posted in the Federal Register about FDA decisions.But when the Environmental Working Group reviewed petitions and GRAS notifications filed since 2000, they found the overwhelming majority of chemicals — some 756 out of 766 — were added to the food supply via GRAS, not through the more stringent petition process.“This is just a process that is fundamentally broken,” EWG legislative attorney Melanie Benesh, who conducted the review, told E&E News. “It is frankly terrifying that for over 20 years nearly 99 percent of new chemicals have been added to our food supply it has been industry deciding what is safe, not FDA.” EWG’s analysis doesn’t show the full picture of chemicals added to the food supply without FDA review because the environmental health nonprofit could not track how often companies choose not to notify FDA of new chemicals they determine are safe. Some of the chemicals “recognized as safe” by industry are considered harmful by health authorities. Take for example butylated hydroxyanisole, known as BHA, which the European Union classifies as an endocrine disrupter and the National Toxicology Program calls “reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen.” Still, it is used in a variety of foods, including potato chips and preserved meats, thanks to the GRAS process. “It is shocking to most people that the food industry is by and large deciding what is safe for chemicals we feed to our children every day,” Benesh said.
Our food system isn't ready for the climate crisis - The climate breakdown is already threatening many of our favorite foods. In Asia, rice fields are being flooded with saltwater; cyclones have wiped out vanilla crops in Madagascar; in Central America higher temperatures ripen coffee too quickly; drought in sub–Saharan Africa is withering chickpea crops; and rising ocean acidity is killing oysters and scallops in American waters. All our food systems – agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture – are buckling under the stress of rising temperatures, wildfires, droughts, and floods. Even in the best-case scenario, global heating is expected to make the earth less suitable for the crops that provide most of our calories. If no action is taken to curtail the climate crisis, crop losses will be devastating. Nature has a simple way to adapt to different climates: genetic diversity. Even if some plants react poorly to higher temperatures or less rainfall, other varieties can not only survive – but thrive, giving humans more options on what to grow and eat. But the powerful food industry had other ideas and over the past century, humans have increasingly relied on fewer and fewer crop varieties that can be mass produced and shipped around the world. “The line between abundance and disaster is becoming thinner and thinner and the public is unaware and unconcerned,” writes Dan Saladino in his book Eating to Extinction.. The story of the humble banana, one of the cheapest, most popular and most traded fruits globally, shows us why diversity is so crucial.[...] We made similar mistakes with virtually all industrially farmed foods - optimizing yields and profits while sacrificing diversity. Yet diversity boosts the overall resilience in our food systems against new climate and environmental changes that can ruin crops and drive the emergence of new or more aggressive pathogens. It’s what enabled humans to produce food and thrive at high altitudes and in the desert, but rather than learn from the past, we’ve put all our eggs in a few genetic baskets. This is why a single pathogen, Panama 4, could wipe out the banana industry as we know it. It’s been detected in every continent including most recently Latin America, the world’s top banana export region, where entire communities depend on the Cavendish for their livelihoods. “It’s history repeating itself,” said banana breeder Fernando Garcia-Bastidas.
EPA: Breathing formaldehyde causes cancer - Defying pressure from industry members and Republican lawmakers, EPA has released a long-delayed and highly contentious draft assessment finding formaldehyde is carcinogenic to humans when inhaled. Issued through EPA’s gold-standard Integrated Risk Information System, the draft upholds what public health experts have long argued: That formaldehyde inhalation can result in a range of health effects, including nasal cancers and myeloid leukemia. The draft ties formaldehyde to EPA’s strongest cancer classification, with the agency finding the chemical can lead to head and neck tumors, among other severe health risks.In an interview this morning with E&E News, Samantha Jones, a senior EPA toxicologist, emphasized the science and research underpinning the draft. “We feel like we’ve been able to go through a pretty rigorous process,” said Jones, the associate director for assessment science in the Office of Research and Development’s Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment. “It shows you the objectivity and how EPA pulled the data together.” Formaldehyde, a colorless and strong-smelling chemical employed in a range of uses including home-building projects, is already classified as a human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The IRIS draft assessment spells out in great detail how researchers arrived at their conclusions, using a systematic review process and “a pretty large evidence base,” Jones said. In addition to cancer findings, EPA said formaldehyde is linked to various noncancer health effects, “including sensory irritation, decreased pulmonary function, and increased prevalence of asthma symptoms,” along with an increase in allergic responses for humans. Implications are notable for children, who may be more vulnerable.
48,000 birds to be killed due to avian flu outbreak in Barron County (WEAU) - An outbreak of avian flu in Barron County means that thousands of birds will have to be killed. The Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection said Saturday that the bird flu was detected in a commercial poultry flock on a turkey farm in Barron County.As a result, 48,000 birds will be killed in an effort to limit the spread of the disease, which has been detected among four flocks in Wisconsin. On April 7, the DATCP issued an order suspending poultry shows and exhibits through May 31 and asked owners to use mitigation measures, including moving birds indoors.The first detection of the bird flu in Wisconsin was in Jefferson County last month. Minnesota has also had several bird flu cases among commercial flocks, prompting the state legislature there to pass $1 million in emergency funding to help combat the virus.Zoos and wildlife centers in Wisconsin are taking precautions, including limiting handlers of birds to animal care staff only.Prices for eggs and poultry are rising as a result of the outbreak.
Poultry farmers asked to keep birds indoors after deadly bird flu detected --Poultry farmers in Saskatchewan—particularly ones with small flocks—are being encouraged to keep their birds indoors after agriculture officials say a highly pathogenic type of bird flu was detected in a goose. The province says in a news release that the Canadian Food Inspection Agency confirmed the H5 strain of avian influenza was detected in a wild snow goose that was found near Elrose, a community about 250 km northwest of Regina. The news release says small flocks are considered high-risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza because they are commonly allowed access to outdoor pens or are free-range. It says that means there's a high probability of contact with wild birds or areas visited by wild birds that may be contaminated with the virus. Saskatchewan's agriculture ministry says the last time highly pathogenic avian influenza was found in the province in either commercial poultry or wild birds was in 2007. Small flock owners are encouraged to confine their birds indoors if at all possible during this high-risk period of wild bird migration, the ministry says.
2 bald eagles in Maine test positive for avian flu - Two American bald eagles tested positive for the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Maine, the United States Department of Agriculture has confirmed. Both cases were detected on April 6. One was in Lincoln County and the other was in York County. Two bald eagles also tested positive for the disease in neighboring Vermont. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers the risk to the general public from the virus to be low, but the virus can be deadly to domestic and commercial poultry and backyard birds. H5N1 avian influenza is carried by flying wild waterfowl like ducks, geese and shorebirds. While it does not sicken wild fowl, it causes severe symptoms in domestic fowl including chickens, turkeys, ducks, pheasants, geese and guinea fowl. Since first being identified in a Knox County small backyard flock of chickens, the virus has been responsible for the death of more than 600 chickens and other poultry birds in Maine, either directly or because the birds were humanely euthanized to prevent the spread of the disease.
Great horned owls, Canadian geese first wild birds positive for avian flu in Wyoming - — The Wyoming Game and Fish Department said in a news release Monday that five cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have been confirmed in wild birds in the state, and is asking for the public’s help in monitoring the outbreak. Two great horned owls from Park County, one Canadian goose from Bighorn County and two Canadian geese from Fremont County have tested positive for the virus. The detection of the disease in the wild birds comes about two weeks after HPAI was identified in domestic flocks in Johnson County amid a national outbreak. Since that March 29 detection in the flock of 39 birds in Johnson County, HPAI has been identified in domestic flocks in Park County (flock of 40 birds on March 30), Fremont County (flock of 47 birds on April 1), Sheridan County (flock of 45 birds on April 5) and again in Park County (flock of 100 birds on April 6), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.“We expected to see HPAI in wild birds after it was identified in domestic flocks in Wyoming,” said Hank Edwards, Wildlife Health Laboratory supervisor. “Game and Fish is relying on reports from the public to learn more about the distribution in our state — especially from hunters and people who spend a lot of time outdoors.”Anyone who finds clusters of three or more dead wild birds — waterfowl, grouse, turkeys and raptors — are encouraged to contact their regional Game and Fish office.
Raptors are taking major hit from bird flu --Bird flu is infecting and killing great horned owls and bald eagles in unprecedented numbers, according to Dr. Victoria Hall, executive director of the Raptor Center at the University of Minnesota."Entire families of owls are dying, parents and chicks," she said in a recent phone interview. In raptors, this virus is about 90 to 100% fatal, she said. Eagles and owls prey on ducks, a potential source of infection. The virus is carried on talons to the nest, where it infects babies. Owls can pass the virus in their feces and respiratory secretions for days before showing signs of illness. Shed by ducks, the virus can linger in wet, cool environments, infecting birds after the waterfowl move on. "By the time we see the infected birds they're in extreme neurologic condition. They are having severe seizures. The kindest thing we can do is euthanasia," Hall told me. The virus is being found all over the state and country right now. It's very unusual to have an outbreak this widespread, this much infected wildlife in so many geographic locations, Hall said. "It's truly unprecedented." In 2015 bird flu killed 9 million chickens and turkeys in Minnesota. Dr. Pat Redig, cofounder of the Raptor Center, was testing every raptor that came into the center, Hall said. Redig also was doing massive testing of ducks in the wild. He did not find a single positive result, she said. "We know that the current virus came in with migratory waterfowl," Hall said. "Historically, we've seen transmission continue until hot weather in the summer months, when some of the migratory birds move on." The center is not accepting dead birds anymore, she explained, because the virus security risk is so high. The staff wants to keep the center's education birds safe, and to be able to keep accepting other ill or injured birds at this time. "It's really rare for this virus to go to people, but this time the chance is not zero. We're giving a whole lot of advanced guidance to people,"
Avian flu killing waterfowl, raptors in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Dakotas - The new strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza that has forced the destruction of nearly 25 million domestic poultry across the U.S. is also spreading rapidly among wild bird populations in Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas. The disease appears to have spread north quickly from states like North Carolina and Florida, riding in infected, migrating birds, especially waterfowl. Minnesota already has seen multiple cases of Canada geese, mallard ducks and bald eagles with the disease, starting in late March and increasing this week. In North and South Dakota, Iowa and Missouri, snow geese have died by the dozens. Snowy owls, hawks, swans, crows, vultures, cormorants, pelicans and other waterfowl have also perished, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. More than 40 species of wild birds in 30 states have tested positive so far. The Minnesota DNR confirms that several waterfowl, including mallards like these, have died in recent days from the current strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza.Contributed / U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service “This strain (of avian influenza) really seems to be devastating for wild birds, especially waterfowl and the critters that eat waterfowl," said Michelle Carstensen, wildlife health group leader and wildlife veterinarian for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. Carstensen said wildlife health experts across the country and into Canada are getting daily reports on dead birds as the migration moves north. As of Thursday, Minnesota has seen 24 confirmed cases in wildlife in 10 counties. “We don’t know yet what it is about this H5N1 strain that is making it spread in wildlife so fast. Back in 2015, when H5N2 really hit the poultry industry in Minnesota, we looked hard all across the state and just didn’t find any. We found it in one bird, a Cooper's Hawk. ... This is clearly a whole different situation now," Carstensen said. “This is a big wildlife health issue. … What impact it might have on wildlife populations, like will it reduce the goose population, we don’t know yet. It’s just getting started.”
Avian flu confirmed at sixth Wayne County commercial poultry farm - The avian flu continues to spread here in Eastern Carolina with it confirmed at yet another commercial poultry operation. The state Department of Agriculture says Wayne County has seen its sixth confirmed farm with the virus. Nearly 90,000 chickens had to be destroyed at that location. So far, three commercial turkey and three commercial chicken operations have been found to have the virus in Wayne County this month. There’s also been an outbreak at three other commercial turkey farms in neighboring Johnston County. The state says to date, 371,352 chickens and 110,213 turkeys have been euthanized in the two counties because of the bird flu. Ten days ago, state ag officials announced that poultry shows and public sales have been suspended until further notice.
Avian flu case prompts killing of 1.7 million hens in northeast Nebraska --State and federal agriculture authorities announced Wednesday that Nebraska’s sixth case of avian flu had been found on a hen farm in Dixon County. The case was found among a flock of 1.7 million egg-laying hens in a northeast Nebraska county that are now in the process of being killed, according to a release from the Nebraska and U.S. Departments of Agriculture as well as the Plant Health Inspection Service. It’s the largest flock in the state that has been impacted by highly pathogenic avian influenza, also known as HPAI.With the latest report, HPAI cases around the state have now caused the killing of about 2.7 million birds, including about 970,000 broiler chickens in Butler County, and dozens of other chickens or waterfowl in Merrick, Holt, and Scotts Bluff counties.Millions of birds have also been killed in Iowa in recent months because of bird flu cases found there. Omaha’s Henry Doorly Zoo and Aquarium has also taken precautions to protect its bird populations. Per USDA policy, NDA is also establishing a 6.2-mile control zone around the Dixon County hen farm.HPAI is a highly contagious virus among birds that spreads — through nasal and eye secretions as well as manure, or through contact with contaminated equipment, clothing, or shoes — from flock to flock. The virus can be also transmitted through wild birds without them becoming sick.
Hundreds of Birds Found Dead of Bird Flu at Suburban Lake, Experts Fear Bigger Outbreak – Hundreds of birds have been found dead at a suburban Chicago lake, according to wildlife officials, marking the first major avian flu outbreak in the Great Lakes region this year as experts fear hundreds more could soon be found.More than 200 animals were found on Baker's Lake in the Barrington area, far northwest of Chicago. The lake, according to the Forest Preserves of Cook County, is known for bird watching and "is home to one of the most significant heron rookeries in the Midwest."“This is the same flu that is causing massive die offs in our poultry industry through out north America," said Chris Anchor, wildlife biologist for the Forest Preserve District of Cook County.The outbreak is the first seen in the Great Lakes Region, though the virus has been impacting birds across the Midwest for the last couple months.Millions of turkeys and chickens at commercial farms in numerous states have been killed this year due to avian influenza. Late last month, the virus was confirmed in wild birds found in three southeastern Michigan counties, according to the state Department of Natural Resources.Chicago-area zoos recently pulled dozens of their birds from outdoor exhibits amid the spread of this year’s highly transmissible strain of the bird flu.Two smaller outbreaks were also reported in Illinois so far this year, affecting backyard flocks in McLean and Carol counties.
Horrifying map reveals 5,000 new viruses lurking under ocean -Researchers have completed an analysis of ocean water from all over the globe and found thousands of previously undiscovered viruses. The study focused on RNA viruses, like COVID, which can replicate themselves much faster than DNA viruses. These viruses also lack a “genetic bar code” because they do not house their evolutionary information in DNA. “Without this bar code, trying to distinguish different species of virus in the wild can be challenging,” the study wrote. The team zeroed in on plankton, which can move any direction in water regardless of currents. Because of their mobility, plankton are critical to underwater ecosystems and food chains – they are also major carriers of RNA viruses. To identify viruses, the researchers flagged a specific enzyme known to make viruses replicate. The RNA viruses have very slight differences in the genetic coding of this enzyme – 44,000 different genes that can contribute to the replication process were found. They sought to then isolate the genes of samples, and determine their connection. “The more similar two genes were, the more likely viruses with those genes were closely related,” giving researchers a glimpse into the early history of viruses on Earth. The study also discovered five new phyla for RNA viruses. Phylum is the fourth broadest organizational category for organisms.Organisms within the same phylum are related in some biological fashion – for example, all vertebrates are in the phylum Chordate.
Dangerous Portuguese man o' war blow into Florida, South Carolina beaches --As spring break revelers flocked to beaches in South Florida and South Carolina recently, so did the dangerous Portuguese man o’ war. Purple flags flew across Treasure Coast, South Florida and South Carolina beaches indicating dangerous marine life in the water. Lifeguards flew the purple flag at beaches earlier this year to warn of Portuguese men o’ war.The Portuguese man o’ war, related to a jellyfish, fires barbs loaded with toxin when something brushes against their tentacles. The cells still fire even if the animal is dead and washed-up on shore.“These animals are some of the most toxic animals in the world,” said Tony McEwan, Curator and Marine Biologist at the University of Hawaii’s Waikiki Aquarium. “They’re not very maneuverable animals, so their prey has to be immobilized very quickly.”Tentacles trail from a bubble/float with a sail. The animal was so named because it looked like an 18th-century Portuguese warship under sail. The float can be a gossamer blue, pink or violet up to 6 inches long and sits 6 inches above the waterline. They look pretty, but don’t touch.“The Portuguese man o’ war is not going to kill you but, it’s going to be painful, and it’s going to be uncomfortable and very itchy for a while,” said McEwan then added the toxin could be fatal to someone with an allergy. “Then it slowly, slowly dissipates.”Venomous barbs paralyze a fish that brushed against the tentacles. The man o’ war then pulls the fish into its stomach.McEwan recommends staying out of the water if men o’ war are present. Consider wearing shoes while beachcombing. The tentacles stretch well beyond the float, normally up to 3 feet but can grow to 100 feet long, according to NOAA. Keep them away from dogs’ curious noses and tongues too.
New approach can predict pollution from cooking emissions --Organic aerosols—such as those released in cooking—may stay in the atmosphere for several days, because of nanostructures formed by fatty acids as they are released into the air. By identifying the processes which control how these aerosols are transformed in the atmosphere, scientists will be able to better understand and predict their impact on the environment and the climate. Experts at the Universities of Birmingham and Bath have used instruments at the Diamond Light Source and the Central Laser Facility, both based at the Harwell Campus in Oxford, to probe the behavior of thin films of oleic acid—an unsaturated fatty acid commonly released when cooking. In the study, published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, they were able to analyze the particular molecular properties that control how rapidly aerosol emissions can be broken down in the atmosphere. Then, using a theoretical model combined with experimental data the team was able to predict the amount of time aerosols generated from cooking may hang around in the environment. These types of aerosols have long been associated with poor air quality in urban areas, but their impact on human-made climate change is hard to gauge. That's because of the diverse range of molecules found within aerosols, and their varying interactions with the environment. By identifying the nanostructure of molecules emitted during cooking that slows down the break-up of organic aerosols, it becomes possible to model how they are transported and dispersed into the atmosphere. "Cooking aerosols account for up to 10 per cent of particulate matter (PM) emissions in the UK. Finding accurate ways to predict their behavior will give us much more precise ways to also assess their contribution to climate change." "we're increasingly finding out how molecules like these fatty acids from cooking can organize themselves into bilayers and other regular shapes and stacks within aerosol droplets that float in the air, and how this completely changes how fast they degrade, how long they persist in the atmosphere, and how they affect pollution and weather."
Microplastics and pollution combine to become much more toxic: Study - Microplastics can pick up pollution in their travels and pose an even greater threat to human health, according to a new study.In the ocean, for example, toxic compounds can hitch a ride on plastic and make the material 10 times more toxic than it would normally be, according to the research published earlier this year in Chemosphere.Although the dangers of both microplastics and harmful compounds have been studied individually, few researchers have look at their combined effect. This study is also unique in that the researchers tested these polluted plastic particles on human cells—most previous research has focused on the impacts on marine life.Microplastics are tiny plastic particles formed when larger pieces of plastic degrade over time—and they are ubiquitous, found everywhere from Mount Everest to theMariana Trench. They can act as magnets for environmental pollution, transforming them into potentially toxic particles, Andrey Rubin, a Ph.D. Student at Tel Aviv University and first author of the study, told EHN.Previous research has found they can accumulate an array of harmful chemicals, including heavy metals, polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) and perfluoroalkyl substances(PFAS).The microplastics can then funnel these compounds into the bodies of marine organisms, which studies have shown can lead to neurotoxicity, an altered immune response, a reduced growth rate, and death. From there, the tainted microplastics can continue to make their way up the food chain, inadvertently exposing humans.Rubin and co-author Ines Zuker, a professor of Mechanical Engineering at Tel Aviv University, tested what would happen when human cells found along the intestinal tract were exposed to a pollution-plastic mixture containing one type of microplastic known as microbeads and triclosan, an antimicrobial ingredient that was banned in the U.S. in 2016, primarily due to health concerns.Triclosan, formerly found in mouthwash and hand sanitizer, is an endocrine disruptorthat has also been linked to an increase in allergies in children. Even so, “it still exists in some products,” explained Rubin. “A year ago, we saw triclosan in a toothpaste, which is sold here in Israel.”
Pacific Gas & Electric to pay $55 million over massive wildfires (AP) — Pacific Gas & Electric, the nation’s largest utility, has agreed to pay more than $55 million to avoid criminal prosecution for two major wildfires sparked by its aging Northern California power lines and submit to five years of oversight in an attempt to prevent more deadly blazes. The company didn’t acknowledge any wrongdoing in the settlement announced Monday with prosecutors in six counties ravaged by last year’s Dixie fire and the 2019 Kincade fire. The utility still faces criminal charges for a 2020 wildfire in Shasta County that killed four people. The civil settlements are designed to accelerate payments to hundreds of people whose homes were destroyed so they can start rebuilding more quickly than those who suffered devastating losses in 2017 and 2018 blazes ignited by PG&E’s equipment. Those fires prompted the utility to negotiate settlements that included $13.5 billion earmarked for victims — money that still hasn’t been completely distributed. The deal also thrusts the utility back into five years of independent oversight, similar to the supervision PG&E faced during its criminal probation after it was convicted of misconduct that contributed to a natural gas explosion that killed eight people in 2010. Sonoma County District Attorney Jill Ravitch said that oversight was the biggest accomplishment to come from the settlement. “We have limited tools and criminal law to deal with corporations and what we were able to do here was to get a five-year agreement that they will be overseen, that there will be an independent monitor, and that they will have to meet certain benchmarks,” she said Monday. PG&E will have to underwrite the federal monitor’s costs, up to $15 million annually, in addition to the $55 million in other payments and penalties that the utility expects to incur in the settlement. As part of their settlement, Sonoma County prosecutors agreed to drop 33 criminal charges filed last year that accused PG&E of inadvertently injuring six firefighters and endangering public health with smoke and ash from the Kincade fire that began in October 2019. All told, PG&E has been blamed for more than 30 wildfires since 2017 that wiped out more than 23,000 homes and businesses and killed more than 100 people. PG&E’s federal probation ended in late January, raising worries from the federal judge who tried to force the utility to reduce fire risks by requiring more maintenance and reporting. U.S. District Judge William Alsup warned that PG&E remained a “continuing menace to California” and urged state prosecutors to try to rein in the company that provides power to 16 million people.
Research finds pandemic adversely impacts already stressed national forests --Many human experiences were uniquely altered during the COVID-19 pandemic including a significant rise in the number of people seeking outdoor recreation options during quarantine. In a series of studies looking at this trend, researchers at the University of New Hampshire found a dramatic increase during the pandemic of visitors to the parks and protected areas of New England that resulted in significant social, situational and ecological impacts on people's behavior, decision making and experience quality. "At the height of the pandemic, in the summer of 2020, outdoor recreation visitation within New England national forests increased by more than 60%, or approximately two million visitors, a majority of which came from out of state," said Michael Ferguson, assistant professor of recreation management and policy. "While it was great to see so many people rediscovering the outdoors and taking advantage of recreation opportunities, it also raised questions and concerns about these already overwhelmed natural resources." The extensive suite of research, which includes a study recently published in the journal Society and Natural Resources, assesses the status of the so-called outdoor renaissance at the peak of the pandemic by examining visitation increases and shifts in behavior and decision making at the White Mountain National Forest and the Green Mountain National Forest. While the pandemic fueled visitation issues, these national forests were already seeing significant problems as early as 2017, including social (crowding and conflict), situational (site access and litter) and ecological (snowpack and ticks). During the summer of 2020, resource managers at the White Mountain National Forest commissioned the researchers to take a closer look at these concerns. The results of this study, published in the Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, found never-before-seen visitation numbers resulting in even more pervasive recreation challenges including long traffic lines, lack of parking, trail congestion and unprecedented instances of overcrowding and discord.
Interior to reverse key Indian Affairs policy in place since 1975 - Interior Secretary Deb Haaland on Thursday announced she will reverse a 1975 policy giving the Bureau of Indian Affairs final authority over tribal water plans. In the 1975 memo, then-Secretary Rogers Morton gave Bureau of Indian Affairs superintendents and local authorities veto power over any new ordinances or codes regulating tribal water use. In the announcement, Haaland described the memo as an unnecessary extra procedural hurdle that has created decades of confusion in relations between tribes and the federal government. The majority of tribal constitutions include no requirement for secretarial approval, and those that do still have the option to amend them to remove those requirements. “If we are to truly support Tribal self-determination, we cannot be afraid to review and correct actions of the past that were designed to create obstacles for Tribal nations. The ‘Morton moratorium’ is inconsistent with the Department’s commitment to upholding Tribal self-determination and the federal trust responsibility to support Tribal sovereignty,” Haaland said in a statement. “Today’s action underscores our efforts to move forward in this new era.” Haaland, the first Native American Cabinet secretary, has taken a number of actions since her confirmation to strengthen tribal sovereignty and address the history of U.S.-tribal relations. In February, she announced the agency would use funds from the bipartisan infrastructure law to pay out $1.7 billon in water rights settlements to tribes. “Water is a sacred resource, and water rights are crucial to ensuring the health, safety and empowerment of Tribal communities,” she said.
Biden administration announces $46M in climate funding for Indigenous communities --Researchers have found that the near-total loss of historical lands leaves Indigenous people in the U.S. more vulnerable to climate change. Its disproportionate impact, including reduced access to traditional foods, decreased water quality and exposure to health hazards, severely exacerbates socioeconomic inequities. The new funding, made available through President Biden's infrastructure package, will be available for efforts that include ...
- Initiatives that address and strengthen climate resilience and adaptation
- Ocean and coastal management
- Community-driven relocation
"As the effects of climate change continue to intensify, Indigenous communities are facing unique climate-related challenges that pose existential threats to Tribal economies, infrastructure, lives and livelihoods," Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement."Coastal communities are facing flooding, erosion, permafrost subsidence, sea level rise, and storm surges, while inland communities are facing worsening drought and extreme heat," she added. The federal government's investments "will help bolster community resilience, replace aging infrastructure, and provide support needed for climate-related community-driven relocation and adaptation." 40% of federally recognized U.S. tribes live in Alaska Native communities, where the accelerated rate of rising temperatures, melting sea ice and thawing permafrost have taken a toll on critical infrastructure and traditions, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Backed-up pipes, stinky yards: Climate change is wrecking septic tanks - Lewis Lawrence likes to refer to the coastal middle peninsula of Virginia as suffering from a “soggy socks” problem. Flooding is so persistent that people often can’t walk around without getting their feet wet. Over two decades, Lawrence, the executive director of the Middle Peninsula Planning District, has watched the effects of that problem grow, as rising waters and intensifying rains that flood the backyard render underground septic systems ineffective. When that happens smelly, unhealthy wastewater backs up into homes. Local companies, he said, call the Middle Peninsula the “septic repair capital of the East Coast.” “That’s all you need to know,” he added. “And it’s only going to get worse.” As climate change intensifies, septic failures are emerging as a vexing issue for local governments. For decades, flushing a toilet and making wastewater disappear was a convenience that didn't warrant a second thought. No longer. From Miami to Minnesota, septic systems are failing, posing threats to clean water, ecosystems and public health. Advertisement About 20 percent of U.S. households rely on septic, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Many systems are clustered in coastal areas that are experiencing relative sea-level rise, including around Boston and New York. Nearly half of New England homes depend on them. Florida hosts 2.6 million systems. Of the 120,000 in Miami-Dade County, more than half of them fail to work properly at some point during the year, helping to fuel deadly algae blooms in Biscayne Bay, home to the nation’s only underwater national park. The cost to convert those systems into a central sewer plant would be more than $4 billion. The issue is complex, merging common climate themes. Solutions are expensive, beyond the ability of localities to fund them. Permitting standards that were created when rainfall and sea-level rise were relatively constant have become inadequate. Low-income and disadvantaged people who settled in areas with poor soils likely to compromise systems are disproportionately affected. Maintenance requirements are piecemeal nationwide. And while it’s clear that septic failures are increasing, the full scope of the problem remains elusive because data, particularly for the most vulnerable aging systems, are difficult to compile.
Memphis may have the sweetest water in the world, but toxic waste could ruin it all – Hundreds of feet below the city of Memphis, Tennessee, an enormous collection of freshwater – known as the Memphis Sand Aquifer – provides drinking water for at least a million residents. Memphis, the largest US city to rely 100% on groundwater, is said to have the sweetest water in the world. When it rains or snow, water is filtered through the earth. It eventually arrives in the Memphis Sand Aquifer, which spans eight states and is larger than Lake Ontario. This means over time surface pollution can seep into the aquifer, which provides drinking water to West Tennesseans. Across South Memphis, a cluster of low-income, mostly Black neighborhoods, there are a staggering number of toxic waste sites: 33 in all. These sites pose a dual threat: they risk contaminating the aquifer, and above ground, they endanger the lives of residents with noxious emissions. Residents say enough is enough. This isn’t the first time residents in South Memphis have taken a stand against being treated like a dumping ground. In 2020, the community successfully rallied against the construction of the Byhalia crude oil pipeline, which would have exposed residents and the aquifer to the risk of oil leaks or spills. Today, Justin Pearson, president of Memphis Community Against Pollution, is hoping to use that momentum to tackle a new threat: the transportation and storage of millions of tons of toxic waste across their community. Justin Pearson says “Our society has yet to reckon with the reality that every life matters.” Last July, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) announced plans to move 3.5m cubic yards of coal ash from its Allen plant to the South Shelby landfill near the Tennessee-Mississippi border. Illustration of the Allen fossil plant. Coal ash is the leftover dust and sludge from burning coal for electricity that commingles heavy metals and radioactive materials at levels far above those naturally found in coal bedrock and in amounts dangerous to human health. It is often cheaply stored in wet ponds near these facilities to prevent the feather-light dust from becoming airborne and flying away. Map showing coal ash ponds on either side of the Allen plant. Tennessee has known about the dangers of coal ash: in 2008, TVA’s Kingston Fossil Plant, 400 miles east of Memphis, spilled more than 6bn gallons of coal ash across rural Tennessee. Map of Tennessee, showing Kingston plant in eastern half of the state. Illustration of Kingston plant. In 2015, new federal guidance forced coal companies to test the groundwater near their coal ash sites. That’s when TVA discovered high levels of contaminants in the shallow aquifer overtop the Memphis Sand Aquifer. Arsenic had formed a plume – 300 times above safe levels – in the shallow aquifer, above fissures in the Memphis Sand aquifer, endangering the entire region’s drinking water supply.
Reading and Understanding Court Decisions --This week at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Justice Amy Barrett acknowledged expected court decisions on reproductive rights and gun control would be seen through a political lens and may lead to division. The Justice urged people to read the decisions and understand their decisions are based on law and their interpretation of the Constitution. Justice Amy Barrett;” judges, or Justices in this instance, are not deciding cases to impose a ‘policy result,’ but are making their best effort to determine what the law and the Constitution require.In a nation splintered by partisanship and wracked by incivility, Barrett in her remarks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library appeared to acknowledge court decisions on reproductive rights and gun control would be seen through a political lens and lead to division.Justice Barrett ‘urged’ Americans to ‘read the opinion’ and consider the court’s reasoning before making judgments about the outcome.“With divisive Supreme Court rulings coming, Barrett says: ‘Read the opinion’ (yahoo.com) I was wondering what was driving all the noise coming from a recent 5-4 SCOTUS decision with Chief Justice John Roberts joining Justices Kagan, Sotomayer, and Breyer in dissent. So with connecting all the dots, hopefully you are seeing what I am seeing. To my left is an abbreviated article detailing the recent SCOTUS decision as provided by Steve Vladeck on Twitter. (if you click on the image, it will enlarge and be readable)Short version is; SCOTUS blocked a stay by a US District Court which was blocking the discharge of pollutants into navigable waters. Allowing states to determine such was a part of the Trump administration issued rule interpreting the Clean Water Act to allow such. The US District Court disagreed with the state. SCOTUS in a 5-4 decision blocked the US District Court.Lets read “the rest of the story” of what Justice Amy Barrett had to say about SCOTUS decisions at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
At least 23 injured after a large tornado and gigantic hail hit Salado, Texas - At least 23 people were injured after a large tornado swept through the village of Salado, Texas on Tuesday, April 12, 2022, destroying or damaging 15 – 20 homes. Salado is located in Bell County, between Waco and Austin. “There’s not much left. Large trees are uprooted and overturned and stripped. Buildings really reduced to rubble in many locations. Power lines, power poles, are scattered all over the place. It’s pretty devastating,” Bell County Judge David Blackburn said. The tornado was on the ground for about 11 km (7 miles). 12 of those injured were transported to hospitals and one person was critically injured, Blackburn said. Meteorologists said the tornado that hit Salado might have been at least EF-3 or stronger. The same supercell also dumped gigantic hail – up to 14 cm (5.5 inches) in diameter, a very rare occurrence anywhere in the world.
Blizzard blasts North Dakota for a 3rd straight day before moving out - Much of North Dakota remained shut down on Thursday as a slow-moving blizzard pounded the state for a third straight day, but the end of the record-breaking storm was in sight. A blizzard warning that had encompassed much of the state since Monday expired Thursday evening, after another day of howling winds blowing around snow that totaled 2 feet or more in some areas. "There is a light at the end of the tunnel," National Weather Service Meteorologist Jeff Schild said. Friday's forecast called for only "patchy blowing snow" statewide, and for partly sunny skies and winds of 10-20 mph in the Bismarck-Mandan area. That compares with winds gusting in excess of 50 mph late Wednesday. To the west, gusts reached as high as 63 mph in Hettinger, according to weather service reports. "They were some of the highest wind gusts that have been reported during the storm," Schild said. "It got pretty ugly." The storm that started in the Pacific Northwest rolled over the Rockies and blasted into the Northern Plains early Tuesday. Bismarck got 10 inches of snow on Tuesday alone, shattering the city's April 12 record of 3 inches set in 1991, and the city narrowly missed another record on Wednesday. The storm also left a trail of snowfall records from the Pacific Northwest to Montana, according to AccuWeather. Billings, Montana, on Tuesday had its snowiest April day in 67 years. Bismarck as of early Thursday had received a storm total of 17.5 inches of snow -- coincidentally the exact same amount as during the devastating April 1997 blizzard. A bit more snow fell throughout the day Thursday, but less than an inch of accumulation was expected in southern North Dakota, with 2-3 more inches in the north, according to the National Weather Service. Fargo, which had escaped the blizzard, was expected to get an inch or two of snow. Other storm totals as of Thursday afternoon included 17 inches in Williston, 18 in Watford City, 18.4 in Dickinson, 22 in Glen Ullin and McClusky, 22.5 in New Salem, 24 in Richardton and Hazen, 26 in Dunn Center, 26.5 in Hebron and 36 in Minot.
Cold Weather, Snow Affecting Spring Planting Progress Throughout the US - Spring is about to lose some of its momentum. It has been chillier in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest recently, but areas of the Plains and Eastern Corn Belt down to the Gulf Coast have been hitting higher temperature readings during the past week. That continues ahead of a large storm system moving into the Plains on April 12, but the effects will be short. The warmth ahead of the system is in stark contrast to the cold behind the system moving in from the Canadian Prairies to the Northern Plains. The temperature difference between the two air masses of 50 to 60 degrees is what is fueling an incredible spring storm that will leave areas from Montana to Ontario with 1 to 2 feet of snow and produce strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall from the eastern Plains eastward. The system will wrap cold, Canadian air from the northwest across the northern half of the country. But that will not be the only system to talk about. Another will move out of the West and eastward this weekend into early next week. Models are still deciding on where to put the precipitation, but it could mean a mix of rain and snow for the Northern and Central Plains through the Midwest, possibly even south of the Ohio River. That system will pull the colder air south through the rest of the country for several days next week. The cold could produce some frosty mornings in the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi River Valleys. Soft red winter wheat, which may have become more advanced during the last few weeks in southern Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee, could be in line for temperatures to get into the 20s Fahrenheit on a couple of mornings. That is still to be determined, and if it does occur, could produce some frost damage for wheat. According to the USDA's Crop Progress Report released on April 11, this area of the country has yet to plant much, if any of its corn. And with the forecast, producers may be holding off a bit longer as well. Planting progress is already a little bit behind for most of the country outside of Texas and North Carolina, but we may see those numbers fall farther behind with the upcoming cold. Wet ground already along and east of the Mississippi River will have a harder time draining with the colder conditions. And soils that were just starting to get into the optimum range for corn planting are likely to see those numbers slipping a bit during the coming days. Back across the Central and Southern Plains, the cold anomalies will not be as severe, but temperatures will still fall to or slightly below freezing across Nebraska, Colorado, and western Kansas through early next week. Some frost damage may occur in these parts as well. But farther north, where the heavy snow falls, the cold that comes will be maximized. Cold begets cold and the snow will only enhance the cold that is coming from farther north. This will mean that the sudden heavy snowpack takes longer to melt. That is a good thing for reducing flooding risks of the 1- to 2-inch equivalent of liquid stored in the snowpack, but producers hoping to do more spring wheat planting or fieldwork will have a more limited time in which to do so.
More Fertilizers Look to Set Price Records as 2022 Planting Season Begins -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to march higher and higher, according to locations tracked by DTN for the first week of April 2022. All fertilizers were higher once again compared to last month. Leading the way higher was urea. The nitrogen fertilizer was 14% more expensive compared to last month and had an average price of $1,031/ton, which is an all-time high price in the DTN data set. DAP was 13% higher compared the prior month with an average price of $1,040/ton, an all-time high price. MAP was 11% more expensive looking back a month with an average price of $1,056/ton. Potash was also up a considerable amount. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more. Potash was 6% more expensive compared to last month and had an average price of $875/ton. The remaining four fertilizers were slightly higher compared to the previous month. 10-34-0 had an average price of $901/ton, anhydrous $1,534/ton (all-time high), UAN28 $629/ton (all-time high) and UAN32 $729/ton (all-time high). On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $1.12/lb.N, anhydrous $0.94/lb.N, UAN28 $1.12/lb.N and UAN32 $1.14/lb.N. In recent weeks, DAP moved to an all-time high price in our data set. This now puts five fertilizers (DAP, urea, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32) at all-time high price levels. MAP has an average price of $1,056/ton for the first week of April 2022. The all-time high price for this phosphorus fertilizer was set the first week of November 2008 at $1,079/ton, so we are only $23/ton away from setting a new all-time high price for MAP. What about potash? The fertilizer's average price currently is $875/ton. The all-time high price for potash is $896/ton, also set the first week of November 2008; so we are just $21/ton away from a new high for potash
High Fertilizer Prices: Members of Congress Urge Biden to Act -- Nearly 100 members of Congress sent a letter to President Joe Biden earlier this week about the rising cost of fertilizer, encouraging the administration to review all available options to lower the cost of nutrients.Higher fertilizer prices pose a challenge to farmers as they see input prices continue to rise and squeeze their profitability. The skyrocketing nutrient prices could also cause food prices to increase. The group specifically asked the Biden administration to review all options to lower the cost of fertilizer, including, but not limited to, eliminating the cross-border vaccine mandate for transporters of essential commerce and urging USDA to use its existing authority under the food supply chain and pandemic response resources to provide support for farmers facing financial difficulties. In March, several ag groups sent their own letter to President Biden, requesting the administration work with the Canadian government to ease supply chain issues (https://www.dtnpf.com/…). That letter also addressed the cross-border vaccine mandate. Over 1 million short tons of fertilizer cross the U.S.-Canada border by truck every year, according to The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). USDA announced in March several initiatives to address the rising fertilizer prices, including investing $250 million in a grant program for new fertilizer production Other items the group of members of Congress thought would ease the effects of rising fertilizer price included ensuring agricultural minerals like phosphorus and potash are part of the Department of the Interior's crucial mission, increasing U.S. gas production, and approving pending export permits at the Department of Energy liquefied natural gas. "Quickly undertaking such measures is the most immediate -- and perhaps only -- near-term opportunity to partially remedy the high costs of fertilizer hurting American farmers and, ultimately, American consumers," the members of Congress stated in the letter. Fertilizer prices have climbed since December 2020 on several different supply issues, from weather to phosphorus tariffs to higher natural gas prices. Fertilizer prices have increased over the last month or so as the Russia-Ukraine war has continued.
Tropical Cyclone “Megi” (Agaton) death toll rises to 137 - At least 137 people have been killed in floods and landslides after Tropical Cyclone “Megi” moved over the central Philippines from April 10 to 12, 2022. At least 28 others are still missing, according to official reports. Megi made its first landfall over the Eastern Visayas at around midnight UTC on April 10 as a tropical depression and intensified into a tropical storm while moving WNW over the coastal waters of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.1 According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) report issued on April 15 at 00:00 UTC, at least 137 people have been killed and another 28 are still missing.2 323 306 people were displaced in 1 033 evacuation centers. A total of 676 areas in Region 5, Region 6, Region 8, Region 10, Region 11, Region 12, CARAGA and BARMM experienced flooding. 114 other related incidents were reported, most of which were rain-induced landslides. Power outages were reported in 75 cities of which only 11 got their power restored by April 15. 9 622 homes were damaged, of which 570 totally. 6 439 ha (15 911 acres) of crops were damaged. Megi – known as Agaton in the Philippines – is the second named storm of the 2022 Pacific typhoon season and the first to hit the country.
More than 300 people killed after catastrophic floods and landslides hit Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa - The Watchers –At least 306 people have been killed in severe floods and landslides affecting South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province, particularly the city of Durban, since April 10, 2022. There are still many people missing and the death toll is expected to continue rising.
- The city of Durban suffered the heaviest rains in more than 60 years, resulting in catastrophic floods and landslides.
- South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa described the event as ‘a catastrophe of enormous proportions.’
- The entire province of KwaZulu-Natal has been declared a disaster area.
- Some officials are labeling the floods as the worst in the country’s history.
The rains were brought by Subtropical Depression “Issa” – officially named by RSMC La Reunion at 12:00 UTC on April 12.“Following a weekend of widespread rainfall over much of the country this past weekend, the cut-off low system responsible for the inclement weather began moving eastwards over KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape overnight,” the South African Weather Service said April 12, adding that whilst impact-based warnings were indeed issued in a timely manner, it appears that the exceptionally heavy rainfall overnight and this morning exceeded even the expectations of the southern African meteorological community at large.1At 16:00 LT on April 11, a Level 5 warning was issued for the coast and adjacent interior of KwaZulu-Natal. This was subsequently escalated to a Level 8 warning at 20:00 LT. However, following reports of further impacts and persistent, heavy rainfall, SAWS has upgraded the heavy rain warning to an Orange Level 9 for the remainder of April 12.“Overnight rainfall reports from KwaZulu-Natal have underscored the particularly heavy and extreme nature of the rainfall, with some 24-hour falls exceeding 200 mm (7.8 inches),” SAWC said.More noteworthy, is that a few stations even reported 300 mm (11.8 inches) or more.A selection of the highest overnight rainfall measured in KwaZulu-Natal includes King Shaka International Airport (225 mm / 8.85 inches), Margate (311 mm / 12.2 inches), Mount Edgecombe (307 mm / 12 inches), Port Edward (188 mm / 7.4 inches) as well as Virginia airport (Durban north) with 304 mm / 11.9 inches. “Such rainfall is of the order of values normally associated with tropical cyclones; however, SAWS must strongly emphasize that this system is not tropical in nature, nor is it a tropical cyclone.”Another 100 mm (4 inches) fell along the southeastern coast of South Africa in 6 hours to 12:00 UTC on April 13, as reported by RSMC La Reunion. However, the rains continued falling over the region through the rest of the day as Issa slowly drifted away from the coastline.
South African president points to climate change after fatal flooding -South African President Cyril Ramaphosa blamed climate change for fatal flooding that killed hundreds in his country on Tuesday. “This disaster is part of climate change. It is telling us that climate change is serious, it is here,” Ramaphosa said, according to The Associated Press. “We no longer can postpone what we need to do, and the measures we need to take to deal with climate change.” KwaZulu-Natal province was hit with a devastating flood that killed more than 300 people and destroyed homes, roads and other buildings. On Wednesday, the death toll rose to 306 as Ramaphosa vowed to support those who have lost their homes and loved ones, according to Reuters.Some areas have already recovered electricity and water services after the flood knocked out power stations. The South Africa Weather Services has warned of ongoing flooding risk in Kwazulu-Natal and other provinces as winds and rains continue through the upcoming Easter weekend.
Climate change caused more rain during 2020 hurricanes: study -Climate change is responsible for making hurricanes that occurred during 2020 wetter. The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications, found that human-caused climate change led to a 5 percent increase in rainfall in all named storms and an 8 percent increase in rainfall during hurricane-strength storms. Author Kevin Reed noted in a statement that more rain during hurricanes can make them more dangerous. “Hurricanes are devastating events, and storms that produce more frequent hourly rain are even more dangerous in producing damage flooding, storm surge, and destruction in its path,” Reed said. “Our findings indicate that environmental changes caused by humans are signaling more and quicker rainfall, which have direct consequences for coastal communities and sometimes outlying areas,” he added. The researchers used modeling that compared a simulation of the actual world to simulations of a world without human interference in the climate system. The 2020 season had 30 named storms, those with winds of at least 39 miles per hour, which isthe most on record. So far, climate change has been responsible for more than 1 degree Celsius of warming. Global leaders have said limiting the warming to about 1.5 degrees is necessary to curb its most damaging effects.
NOAA Reports March 2022, Year-to-Date Rank as Earth’s 5th Warmest - Antarctic Sea Ice Coverage Shrank to Near-Record Low --March continued the planet’s exceedingly warm start to 2022, ranking as the fifth-warmest March in 143 years.The year so far ranks as the fifth-warmest globally since 1880, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Below are more highlights from NOAA’s latest monthly global climate report:The average global land and ocean-surface temperature for March was 1.71 degrees F (0.95 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 54.9 degrees (12.7 degrees C), ranking as the fifth-warmest March in the global climate record.March 2022 also was the 46th consecutive March and the 447th consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average.Looking regionally, Oceania had its fourth-warmest March on record while Asia had its ninth-warmest. North America, South America, Europe and Africa all had above-average March temperatures, but none of the continents saw a top-15 warm March.For 2022 so far, the global land and ocean surface temperature averaged 1.58 degrees F (0.88 of a degree C), making it the fifth-warmest year to date on record.Asia also had its fifth warmest year-to-date temperature on record, while South America, Europe, the Caribbean region and Oceania each saw a January-through-March temperature ranked among the nine warmest on record. Africa and North America also were warmer than average, but saw their coolest year to date since 2012 and 2014, respectively.A map of the world plotted with some of the most significant climate events that occurred during March 2022. Please see the story below as well as more details in the report summary from NOAA NCEI at http://bit.ly/Global202203offsite link. (NOAA/NCEI) Download Image. Other notable climate events in the March report
- Sea ice was scant at the poles: Antarctic sea ice coverage (extent) was just 1.09 million square miles, the second-smallest extent for March in the 44-year record. Only March of 2017 had a smaller sea ice extent. Across the Arctic, sea ice extent averaged 5.63 million square miles — the ninth-smallest for March since records began in 1979.
- A busy month for the tropics: Nine tropical storms formed globally in March, tying as the second-highest number of tropical storms in March — behind March of 1994 which had a total of 10. Only three of the nine tropical storms reached cyclone (hurricane) strength, which is below normal for the month.
New 2022 world’s lowest temperature set on April 14 at the Vostok Station, Antarctica - A new 2022 world’s lowest temperature was set on April 14 at the Vostok Station (3 420 m / 11 220 feet) in Antarctica. The temperature dropped to -76.8 °C (-106.2 °F), a rare temperature for mid-April, said climatologist Maximiliano Herrera.
Elevated volcanic unrest at Mt. Ruapehu, CO2 output now 2nd highest ever recorded, New Zealand - Elevated levels of volcanic unrest continue at New Zealand’s Ruapehu volcano. This is primarily manifested as strong volcanic tremor, slowly rising Crater Lake temperatures, and high gas outputs. These changes indicate magma may now be driving the unrest, increasing the chances of further activity. The Volcanic Alert Level remains at Level 2. Over the past seven days, the elevated volcanic unrest has continued, increasing to heightened levels. The tremor levels remain elevated but have declined from the peak reached on April 6 and 7. An airborne gas flight completed yesterday has confirmed an increase in gas output through the Crater Lake, in particular of CO2, which is now at the 2nd highest ever recorded value.1 The Crater Lake (Te Wai ā-moe) temperature is now 38 °C (100 °F) and modeling suggests that about ~280 MW of heat is required to sustain this lake temperature. “Temperature and heat input remain within the typical range for a heating cycle. The crater lake remains a battleship grey color with upwellings at the northern vents area and a small overflow. Sulfur slicks are present on the lake surface,” said GNS Duty Volcanologist Brad Scott. The sustained nature of the volcanic unrest now differs from those typically seen during the start of a heating phase. The volcanic tremor signals and elevated gas output are now more indicative of processes being driven by magma interacting with the geothermal system at depth in the volcano. “The most likely outcome of this unrest episode is no eruptive activity occurs, as no eruptions have followed unrest in the past 15 years,” Scott said, adding that there is also a possibility of a single or multiple eruptions that could impact the summit area and generate lahars into some catchments draining off the volcano, especially the Whangaehu Valley. “The size of these eruptions, if they did occur, would probably be like the September 2007 event.” “The chances of a prolonged and larger eruption, such as occurred in 1995-96 with wider ashfall impacts, is possible but remains very unlikely. Such an eruption would most likely only follow a sequence of smaller eruptions,” Scott concluded.
Asteroid 2022 GQ5 flew past Earth at just 0.05 LD - the second closest of the year - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 GQ5 flew past Earth at a distance of just 0.05 LD / 0.00013 AU (19 447 km / 12 084 miles) at 16:20 UTC on April 8, 2022. This is the 50th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the second closest of the year after 2022 FD1. 2022 GQ5 was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona on April 8 – on the same day it made its close approach. The object belongs to the Apollo class of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 1.2 and 2.7 m (3.9 – 8.8 feet).
CME hits Earth, sparking G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm - (video, graphics) A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by a large filament eruption at 05:21 UTC on April 11, 2022 reached Earth around midnight UTC on April 14, sparking G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm. In 24 hours to 12:30 UTC on April 14, the solar wind environment sampled by the DSCOVR satellite showed continued influence from yesterday’s CME prior to the arrival of the April 11 full halo CME around midnight UTC on April 14.1 Total field strength peaked at 11 nT and the Bz component underwent numerous southward deviations after the arrival of this CME. A maximum southward deviation of -8 nT was so far observed. Wind speeds decreased to around 420 km/s, then increased again with today’s CME. Phi also switched from mostly positive to mostly negative with this CME. RTSW April 14, 2022 The 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1 420 pfu at 13:50 UTC on April 13 while the 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at low to moderate levels and the 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through April 16. The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels until the arrival of April 11. Geomagnetic K-index of 4 threshold was reached at 06:54 UTC on April 14, followed by K-index of 5 (G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm) at 11:59 UTC and K-index of 6 (G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm) at 16:30 UTC.G2 geomagnetic storm potential impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
How Extreme Weather Has Created a Disaster for School Infrastructure - When last summer’s devastating flood put the town of Waverly, Tenn., underwater, Richard Rye was standing on the roof of the junior high school. The junior high school where, if it had not been a Saturday morning, entire classrooms of kids would have been submerged in five feet of water as a rising swell pushed through the building, ripping heavy doors off their hinges and turning hallways into rivers, desks bobbing in the current like paper cups. Rye and a bus mechanic had loaded a truck bed full of sandbags and were beginning to place them around the perimeter of the elementary and junior high buildings. The strength of the water threatened Rye’s balance and felt, he remembers, “like a tsunami.” That’s when Rye, along with a few others who were at the campus, opened a supply closet, got a ladder and climbed to the roof. Rye, the director of schools for Humphreys County, stood on that roof for hours and watched first neighboring Waverly Elementary and then Waverly Junior High School, buildings that housed 1,100 total students on any given weekday, fill with water. All he could think was: What am I going to do? The flood proved catastrophic, dumping at least 17 inches on the area, damaging more than 600 homes and killing 20 people, including three students: a second-grader, a high school freshman and a high school sophomore. But the gravity of what Rye faced in its aftermath made it worse still. Put the children back in the flood basin? If not that, then where? It’s a question more school officials will need to answer in the coming years. In January the U.S. Government Accountability Office released areport on the impacts of weather and climate disasters on schools, finding that “Over one-half of public school districts [are] in counties that experienced presidentially-declared major disasters from 2017 to 2019. These school districts included over two-thirds of all students across the country.” It’s a big number that is likely not big enough; the country has seen only larger and more widespread climate catastrophesin the years following the report. The year 2020 holds the record for the most “billion-dollar” weather and climate disasters since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information began keeping track. The second highest year was 2021.In the West, wildfires are turning schools to ash-paste; in the South, floods are the ever-present threat. It’s a threat that is growing larger, yet is often overlooked, especially in rural communities. There, it’s not just hurricanes washing away neighborhoods, but inland flooding, a phenomenon that happens when smaller bodies of water become overwhelmed by increasing precipitation. A 2017 report by the Pew Charitable Trusts found that nearly 6,500 public schools are in counties at a high risk of flooding, and that number is rapidly multiplying; a study published in Nature in January found that the nation’s flood risk will jump 26 percent in the next three decades.The country’s public school infrastructure is no match for apocalyptic weather, and little is being done to prepare. Inaction on the part of school boards and administrators has already had negative consequences. The lack of investment and planning around educational facilities has meant that extreme-weather events routinely shutter buildings and keep kids out of school, which disturbs their grades, mental health and stability of their communities. There’s no question that schools are being affected. But how we can make sure they survive?
‘We’ve been trying warn you’: NASA climate scientist breaks down in emotional speech - In an emotional speech last week in Los Angeles, Nasa scientist Peter Kalmus implored people to listen to the dire warnings of climate change experts.“We’re going to lose everything,” Kalmus said in a video of the moment. “And we’re not joking, we’re not lying, we’re not exaggerating.”Dr Kalmus, a climate scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, was participating in a protest organized by Scientist Rebellion as part of a global day of action by scientists around the world. His protest in LA involved scientists chaining themselves to the doors of a JPMorgan Chase building.“I’m here because scientists are not being listened to. I’m willing to take a risk for this gorgeous planet,” Dr Kalmus said while chained to the door. He then started to cry as he added: “For my sons.”“This is for all of the kids of the world, all of the young people, all of the future people,” Dr Kalmus said later. “This is so much bigger than any of us.” Dr Kalmus tweeted the next day that he and other protestors had been arrested and linked to an essay he penned for The Guardian reiterating the urgency of addressing the climate crisis.“It’s time for all of us to stand up, and take risks, and make sacrifices for this beautiful planet that gives us life, that gives us everything,” Dr Kalmus said in the video.The protest occurred at Chase in protest of the bank’s fossil fuel financing, the Scientist Rebellion group said.
Louisiana plans Supreme Court plea over social cost of carbon - Louisiana’s Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry said today that he plans to ask the Supreme Court to stop the Biden administration from using a key metric in climate regulation. In a short order earlier today, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals denied a request from Louisiana and other states that had asked for a full-court rehearing of a ruling that allowed the administration to resume use of interim social cost of greenhouse gas estimates (Greenwire,, March 31). “We are disappointed in the 5th Circuit’s decision and we will appeal to the Supreme Court,” Landry’s office wrote in an emailed statement. “Attorney General Landry will continue fighting the Biden Administration’s attempts to inject the government into the everyday lives of Americans.” Earlier this year, Judge James Cain Jr. of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana stopped the administration from using its interim social cost metric after finding that it led to increased regulatory costs for states. The formula helps regulators put a dollar value on a metric ton of greenhouse gas emissions. A higher estimate helps undergird more aggressive climate action. During the Trump administration, the government reduced the social cost of carbon to as low as $1 per metric ton, down from $51 under former President Barack Obama. The Biden administration had restored the estimates to Obama-era levels, adjusted for inflation, and planned to unveil final values this year. After Cain, a Trump appointee, blocked the social cost metric, the Biden administration appealed the ruling to the 5th Circuit and asked for emergency relief from the lower court’s injunction. The 5th Circuit agreed, finding that Louisiana and other state challengers had raised “merely hypothetical” claims against the harm of using the metric and likely lacked standing to bring their case. A separate coalition of states, led by Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt (R), launched a similar challenge that was rejected last year by the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri. That case is currently before the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
California Ran on Nearly 100% Clean Energy This Month - California, which aims to have a carbon-free power grid within 25 years, got a short glimpse of that possibility earlier this month. The state’s main grid ran on more than 97% renewable energy at 3:39 p.m. on Sunday April 3, breaking a previous record of 96.4% that was set just a week earlier, the California Independent System Operator said Thursday in a statement.
Wind Power Passed Coal, Nuclear For First Time in U.S. - Wind turbines in the U.S. produced more electricity than coal or nuclear plants on March 29 for the first time on record, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday. That made wind the second-biggest source of electricity that day, behind only natural gas and narrowly ahead of nuclear. Wind farm capacity has increased rapidly in the U.S. over the past 15 years and is widely seen as an important weapon in the push to decarbonize the power grid and the fight against climate change. However, due to the natural variation in wind speeds leading to different amounts of power generation, the EIA doesn’t expect wind to surpass coal or nuclear for an entire month in 2022 or 2023. The EIA data go back to 2018 and don’t include Alaska or Hawaii.
Stripe, Alphabet, Meta Join to Fund Carbon Removal - Some of the world's largest companies will spend $925 million buying offsets from startups that remove carbon dioxide from the air.The Frontier fund, a public-benefit corporation owned by Stripe Inc., has also received funding from Alphabet Inc., Shopify Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and McKinsey & Co. Inc. It will help fledgling carbon-removal companies scale up and reduce the cost of withdrawing each ton of CO₂ from the air, which would benefit all companies in the world looking to buy high-quality offsets.
The Catch-22 of the US military’s climate plans - Military chiefs have been increasingly candid about what the ever-worsening spiral of heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and floods means for US missions, bases and installations (the catch-all term for camps, posts and stations).A 2019 Department of Defense study of 79 installations found two-thirds were at risk of ongoing flooding and half threatened by wildfires or drought. Among those incidents was $500m flooding damage at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. Months earlier, Hurricane Florence roared through Camp Lejeune in North Carolina, leaving $3.5bn damages in its wake.In its recently-published strategy to cut emissions, the US Army describes climate risks as “broad, significant and urgent”, and highlights impacts on supply chains, infrastructure, and the safety of soldiers and their families.“The time to address climate change is now,” wrote Army Secretary Christine Wormuth.The Army says it will cut its emissions by installing renewable power micro-grids across all bases by 2035, and ensure that its non-tactical fleet – those not involved in combat – is fully electric the same year.The military branch already has 950 renewable energy sites up and running, including a solar field at Kentucky’s Fort Knox, and arguably the largest battery storage system in the US at Fort Carson in Colorado. New training will be rolled out so troops are “ready to operate in a climate-altered world”.The Air Force is expected to release its climate action plan later this year, along with the US Navy and Marine Corps which are coordinating on a strategy. President Joe Biden has pledged a “whole-of-government” approach to cutting domestic emissions in half by 2030 (from 2005 levels), and setting the country on a path to net-zero by 2050.It won’t be an easy lift. If it were a country, the US military would be the 47th largest emitter globally, landing between the annual domestic emissions of Peru and Portugal based on fuel use alone, a 2019 study found. In 2017, the military was purchasing more than 269,000 barrels of oil a day. And as yet, there’s no viable alternative for jet fuel, which makes up the bulk of US military emissions.
EJ advocates plan to monitor Biden's progress - The Biden administration has promoted its signature environmental justice initiative as a linchpin of its equity agenda, but few people outside Washington seem to have any idea what it is, three prominent activists said yesterday. “I have not met many elected officials in my state or in many others who have ever heard of it,” said Peggy Shepard, executive director of New York environmental justice group We Act for Environmental Justice. Shepard and two other top activists — Beverly Wright and Bob Bullard — yesterday announced their own shadow initiative to “compliment” and “supplement” President Joe Biden’s agenda. Their new three-pronged plan — backed by the Bezos Earth Fund — would track and monitor the federal government’s effort to invest 40 percent of climate-related benefits in areas long inflicted by environmental racism. A virtual press conference yesterday from Wright and Bullard suggested the advocates are concerned with the administration’s implementation of Justice40, and other environmental justice initiatives throughout the government. “We’ve seen in the past many situations where good projects ended up having bad results,” said Wright, founder of the Louisiana-based Deep South Center for Environmental Justice. “We don’t want to see that happening at this time.”
Biden climate adviser pushes back on departure rumors National climate adviser Gina McCarthy is pushing back on reports that she will soon depart her White House post. Late Thursday she tweeted, “Reports that I have resigned from my position as President Biden’s National Climate Advisor are simply inaccurate.” “We’ve made great progress these past 14 months, but we have much more work to do — and I remain excited about the opportunities ahead,” McCarthy added. However, it was not reported that she resigned. Instead, multiple news outlets reported that she was planning to step down. Reuters, which first reported on the potential exit, noted that she could leave as soon as next month. E&E News reported that she would leave in the coming months. Asked for comment on Thursday, White House spokesperson Vedant Patel said via email, ”We have no personnel announcements to make.” “Gina and her entire team continue to be laser focused on delivering on President Biden’s clean energy agenda,” he added. Sources said there has been talk about the possibility McCarthy could leave her position, but they did not have direct knowledge of any plans or timing of any departure. One source said that while they had heard rumors that her exit was a possibility, they don’t expect her to leave before November. It is not particularly unusual for White House officials to leave after more than a year of service, though most are likely to try to stay at least until after the November midterm elections. White House press secretary Jen Psaki, for instance, has said she plans to leave her role this year. News outlets including The Hill reported earlier this month that Psaki plans to leave her job in the spring and will eventually take a role at MSNBC. McCarthy, who was appointed at the start of the Biden administration to be the White House’s domestic “climate czar,” has spearheaded a number of efforts on climate change.
Inside a legal doctrine that could derail Biden climate regs - EPA’s fuel economy rule. A metric that underpins major climate regulations. The next power plant emissions rule.These are just three Biden-era regulations and policies subject to courtroom challenges driven by a long-dormant legal doctrine seen by conservatives as a winning argument against aggressive federal climate action.“All the cool kids are now citing the major questions doctrine,” said Kevin Poloncarz, a partner at the firm Covington & Burling LLP, during a recent discussion hosted by the American Council on Renewable Energy.The doctrine — which says Congress must speak clearly if it wishes to allow a federal agency to address matters of “vast economic and political significance” — has been invoked by Republican state attorneys general and conservative groups in challenges to EPA’s vehicle emissions rule and the social cost of carbon, a metric federal regulators use in cost-benefit analyses.And during Feb. 28 oral arguments in the blockbuster Supreme Court climate case West Virginia v. EPA, the justices sought to understand how the doctrine might be applied in a challenge to emissions rules for existing power plants.They took some of their cues from a friend of the court brief filed by the America First Policy Institute, a nonprofit founded by former Trump administration officials, that said the justices should take the opportunity to more clearly define the major questions doctrine.“When it’s not possible for whatever reason to get major legislation, there’s a strong temptation to address those major questions instead through the pen and the phone,” said Jonathan Berry, a partner at the firm Boyden Gray & Associates, who authored the amicus brief.The filing criticized a recent decision by the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that briefly revived the Biden administration’s Covid-19 vaccine-or-test requirement for large employers. In that decision, the 6th Circuit referred to the major questions doctrine as “undefined” and “seldom used.”The Supreme Court later reversed the 6th Circuit’s decision in an order that leaned heavily on the doctrine — raising concerns among environmental lawyers that the justices would embrace major questions challenges against EPA’s power plant rule and other climate regulations (Greenwire, Jan. 14).The brief from the America First Policy Institute argues that EPA cannot impose rules — like the Obama-era Clean Power Plan — that would force an industry to shift to new technology and away from fossil fuels, rather than focusing on changes at individual power plants.
Clean energy sector eyes window for passing federal tax breaks amid challenge of high energy prices --Clean energy stakeholders see a window in the next few months for Congress to pass broad clean energy tax breaks amid high energy prices and an ever-narrowing legislative calendar. Failing to approve the proposed tax breaks will likely result in "delayed and canceled projects and a slowing, or even reversal, of onshoring our domestic supply chains," Leah Rubin Shen, Advanced Energy Economy's federal policy director, said via email. "Those are the real-world implications if this doesn’t get approved — fewer wind and solar projects built, slowed efforts at decarbonizing our grid and transportation system, all while China continues to dominate the supply of technologies, like solar panels and lithium-ion batteries, critical to building a clean energy future," she continued. The Senate has been focusing recently on the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to be an associate justice on the U.S. Supreme Court, along with several other matters. Now that Jackson has been confirmed, renewable energy advocates are hoping to see movement this month on a budget reconciliation bill and its clean energy tax breaks, which include new credits for storage and transmission along with updated incentives for wind and solar, among other energy measures. But is such an expectation realistic, Gregory Wetstone, president and CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy, asked a Senate staffer and a House staffer on a panel Wetstone moderated at ACORE's March 24 policy forum. In addition, how do various cross-pressures — such as the war in Ukraine spurring increased attention to natural gas and Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Joe Manchin, D-W. Va., signaling support for an all-of-the-above energy strategy — affect the prospects for getting the tax breaks enacted? "The events in Europe are ... spurring additional desire to move on the energy package," said Bobby Andres, a senior policy adviser for Chairman Ron Wyden, D-Ore., on the Senate Finance Committee. The budget reconciliation package that was put together last fall and into December by the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee was designed to tackle climate issues, but those design choices can also help address energy costs and spur energy development, Andres noted. "There are plenty of issues, we still have to resolve with the package writ large," Andres said. "But I think we're still extremely optimistic about the path forward for passing this package, and in preserving the bulk of what we had in December," he said. "In terms of timing ... Congress can move, especially the Senate, can move, as quickly or slowly as there is political will," he added.
Biden pitches new action to lessen gas prices --President Biden formally announced a waiver on Tuesday that will allow the sale of fuel with higher ethanol content to be sold during the summer months, an action he said would help lower soaring gas prices. Current regulations prevent the fuel from being sold between June and September due to concerns about its effect on smog and other forms of air pollution. Advocates have said the regulations in question were written for fuels that are 10 percent ethanol rather than the type known as E15, which is 15 percent ethanol. Administration officials, announcing the decision Monday night, projected it would save the average family 10 cents a gallon, a figure Biden also cited in his remarks Tuesday afternoon.“Homegrown biofuels have a role to play right now … as we work to get prices under control and reduce the costs for families,” the president said in Iowa on Tuesday, during a speech at POET Bioprocessing in Menlo, next to a giant pile of cornmeal. In his remarks, Biden emphasized the role of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the energy market, blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin for the recent surge in fuel prices. “I’m doing everything within my power by executive orders to bring down the price and address the Putin price hike,” the president said.“Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide half a world away,” he said, also describing Putin’s actions as “genocide” for the first time. Biden appeared at the event alongside Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa), who is among vulnerable Democrats in Congress in the impending midterm election cycle. The speech represented the latest effort by the Biden administration to address growing concerns about inflation and heightened gas prices in particular. Fuel prices, already spiking earlier this year, have ballooned further as Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the global market. Gas prices averaged about $4.10 per gallon nationwide as of Tuesday, according to AAA. Labor Department data released Tuesday showed that consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in March and 8.5 percent over the past year.
EPA denies requests for biofuel blending exemptions - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Thursday rejected 36 requests for exemptions from biofuels blending requirements for gasoline. Oil refiners are required to blend a certain amount of ethanol or other biofuels into what eventually becomes gasoline. But small refiners can request exemptions if this would cause it significant hardships. Of the 36 petitions that were denied, however, the EPA said it will allow 31 of them to meet the 2018 requirements, for which they had asked to be exempt, through an “ alternate compliance approach.”This means that these refineries will not have to purchase or use additional blending credits in order to meet their obligations. The agency said it would give the refineries this authority because of “extenuating circumstances” including the fact that there had previously been exemptions granted. The EPA’s decision on Thursday did not allow for any exceptions to move forward, but the agency said it is still considering several additional exemption requests.In December, the agency had proposed denying 65 petitions. The blending requirements were created by Congress in 2005 in what is known as the renewable fuel standard (RFS) program. It is meant to cut the releases of planet-warming gases from U.S. gasoline usage. However, some studies have called climate benefits from ethanol usage into question, citing emissions from changes in land that is used to grow the corn that makes the fuel.
Praj Industries developing binder to blend ethanol with diesel : Biofuels Digest - In India, The Hindu Business Line reports that Praj Industries Ltd. is in collaboration with the Pune-based Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI), and is developing a binder that will help blend ethanol with diesel, the company’s top official has said. According to The Hindu Business Line, Praj is collaborating with ARAI, setting up three plants to use cellulosic feedstock and the project (binder) is in the testing phase currently.
Wealthy nations responsible for 74 percent of ecological harm: study - Wealthy nations are responsible for nearly three-quarters of ecological damage worldwide,according to research published in the journal Lancet Planetary Health. Researchers assigned responsibility by calculating fair shares of resources, subtracted from nations’ actual use of resources.They found the U.S. led with 27 percent of excess resource use, followed by the European Union with 25 percent. China, which is the overall largest emitter of greenhouse gases worldwide, was responsible for 15 percent of excess material use, according to the research. Meanwhile, nations in regions like the Caribbean and the Middle East, as well as low-income African and Latin American nations, collectively only comprised 8 percent of excess resource use. “These results indicate that rich countries owe an ecological debt to the rest of the world, and should lead the way in repairing the damages they have caused,” lead author Jason Hickel, a professor at the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology in Barcelona, told The Hill in an email. “The first step is that they need to bring their resource use back within sustainable levels, which will require a 70% reduction on average from existing levels.” The study covered ecological damage other than climate change, but Hickel noted that the team had done prior research indicating similar breakdowns in responsibility. “When it comes to both of these crises, rich countries are overwhelmingly responsible for the problem and need to take the lead in addressing it,” he said. Asked what an international plan to address these disparities would look like, Hickel called European Union legislation to cap resource use “a big step.” “But we also need the US on board, as well as Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and other rich countries, if we want to see real change,” he said.
Poorer countries fall further behind on green COVID recovery spending - The gap is expanding for planned renewable energy spending on the COVID-19 recovery between wealthier and lower-income nations, with less wealthy countries constrained by the cost of commodities like fuel and food, according to a report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The report found that advanced-economy governments are on track to spend $370 billion on renewables by next year, which tracks with what the IEA says is necessary to reach net zero emissions by 2050. However, those governments dedicated more than 10 times the financial resources to the issue as emerging and developing economies, according to the IEA. In emerging and developing nations, government spending on renewable energy is on track for about $52 billion by 2023, or less than 25 percent of the trajectory necessary for the zero-emissions goals. Many of these governments, the report notes, have been forced to focus their financial resources on counteracting rising food and fuel prices, meaning they will likely stay low in the months ahead. “Countries where clean energy is at the heart of recovery plans are keeping alive the possibility of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, but challenging financial and economic conditions have undermined public resources in much of the rest of the world,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. “International cooperation will be essential to change these clean energy investment trends, especially in emerging and developing economies where the need is greatest.” The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent spikes in fuel prices have compelled governments to focus on reducing energy costs. Governmental affordability support for energy has increased to about $270 billion since the beginning of winter 2021 in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the report states that these efforts have not included many of the strategies that could do the most good for reducing fossil fuel demand, such as public transport expansion and heat pump installation.
Covid-19 boost in green spending still not enough, IEA says - The world’s wealthiest countries are rapidly boosting spending on clean energy, but lower-income nations are struggling to do the same, with higher food and fuel prices bearing down on their already limited finances. The widening gap could challenge the global goal of zeroing out planet-warming emissions by 2050, the target needed to prevent the worst impacts of climate change, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. Countries have allocated a total of $710 billion to clean energy through their Covid-19 stimulus packages, a 50 percent increase since last October, according to the IEA’s Sustainable Recovery Tracker. Those measures include support for solar, wind and other renewable power projects; prevention of methane leaks and investment in carbon capture technology; financing for electric vehicle chargers or the electrification of bus fleets; just transition funds to support a shift away from fossil fuels; and energy efficiency improvements for schools.More than half of the total amount, $370 billion, is earmarked by developed economies for use by the end of 2023. In contrast, lower-income countries are planning to spend around $52 billion on sustainable recovery measures.The total is roughly 40 percent more than was spent on green investments in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. But it still accounts for just 4 percent of the $18.2 trillion governments have agreed to put toward Covid-19 economic recovery measures since the start of the pandemic, the IEA report says.A separate study on the Group of 20 — the European Union and 19 countries that contribute the most to climate pollution — found that just 6 percent of the spending in their Covid-19 recovery plans since 2020 went to green investments (Climatewire, March 8).In a June 2020 report, the IEA said that $1 trillion in annual clean energy spending would be needed by 2023 to put the world on track for net-zero emissions by 2050. Emerging and developing countries will need to account for two-thirds of that investment by the end of this decade, according to the agency.Today’s report tracks progress countries are making toward that targeted spending level by looking at energy-related policies, public spending and their impacts. The report notes that developed countries are close to spending what they need to in order to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. But as the world’s largest emitters historically, experts say they also have a responsibility to support developing countries’ transition to clean energy and limit the impacts of global warming.
Pumped storage is having a moment. Will it shift renewables? - A massive clean energy project that doesn’t rely on wind or solar could help solve some of California’s electricity challenges — if it can get built.Nine years after first proposing the San Vicente Energy Storage Facility, the city of San Diego and the San Diego County Water Authority announced in January that they were in talks with a private developer to advance the hydroelectric pumped storage project, which would be constructed northeast of the city.The development is an example of what the hydropower industry hopes will be a tipping point for one of the oldest sources of renewable energy, even as some analysts and environmentalists remain skeptical of whether the challenges for water power can be overcome.“The hydro industry is really trying to showcase the fact that we’re part of the solution for climate change,” said Leonard Greene, head of government affairs and communications at FirstLight Power Resources Inc., which operates traditional hydroelectric and pumped storage projects in New England.Although the days of sprawling new hydroelectric dams on American rivers may be over, observers see a growing interest in new pumped storage facilities and other hydropower projects that may pose less significant environmental threats while providing benefits to the power grid. Consisting of two reservoirs at different elevations, pumped storage projects use water and gravity to generate power as well as store electricity, which can be released as needed to help balance the power grid.The trend comes as industry leaders and environmental groups alike are pushing for reforms to the hydropower permitting process that could make it easier to advance certain potentially lower-impact hydropower projects (Greenwire, April 4).Representing a growing share of the hydropower projects proposed or under development, pumped storage facilities act similarly to a giant battery, but they can store energy for longer than the batteries that exist today. Many of the major projects under consideration, including the one proposed in San Diego, are closed-loop.That means they aren’t connected to an existing free-flowing waterway, “potentially minimizing aquatic and terrestrial impacts,” according to a Department of Energy report from 2020.All told, 63 gigawatts’ worth of new pumped storage projects have been proposed to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission over the last three years, an amount that’s roughly three times the existing pumped hydropower capacity under FERC’s jurisdiction, according to ClearView Energy Partners LLC in a research note last month. FERC is charged with approving and regulating new, nonfederal hydroelectric dams.
Are highway rights of way an answer to power siting dilemma? - Could a key to unlocking a cleaner, more durable power grid and furthering the adoption of electric vehicles be found in vacant strips of land alongside highways and interstates?The answer may be yes, and it’s a concept that’s gaining momentum across the country, according to a feasibility study done for the Minnesota Department of Transportation.The study, released yesterday, was led by the Ray, an Atlanta-based transportation nonprofit, and Seattle-based NGI Consulting, and shows multiple benefits for co-locating high-voltage, direct current (HVDC) transmission and broadband underground along highway rights of wayThe analysis focused on Minnesota but was expanded to include a broader set of findings that outline the “national” benefits of using existing highway rights of way for siting transmission and communication infrastructure. Among the benefits identified: more than $1 billion in societal value from faster grid decarbonization that would be possible per interregional transmission project.The study also said underground HVDC transmission can be built at a cost comparable, on a capacity basis, to much of the 345-kilovolt alternating current (AC) transmission that has been built across the country. It’s a view not shared universally in the transmission industry, and cost is often cited as an obstacle to burying high-voltage power lines. But transmission developers in the United States and Europe, including SOO Green HVDC Link LLC, a project being developed in the Midwest, are already siting HVDC lines underground in existing transportation rights of way. And the Biden administration has helped with guidance and funding to help states embrace the concept of using rail and highway easements.
Is your electric utility blocking climate action? --American electric utilities often talk a good game when it comes to climate change. But many are working to keep the country hooked on fossil fuels.A new report from the London-based think tank InfluenceMapfinds that nearly half of the U.S.’s 25 largest investor-owned power utilities are working to delay the transition away from coal, oil, and gas — whether through direct lobbying at the state or federal level, public messaging, or their funding of campaigns and political parties. The report brands 11 of the 25 utilities as “laggards” and links many of them to the absence of strong climate legislation in their home states.Kendra Haven, U.S. program director for InfluenceMap and one of the report’s authors, said that electric utilities’ actions are obstructing urgently needed progress toward the country’s climate targets. In 2019, power generation accounted for 25 percent of the U.S.’s climate pollution. Decarbonizing the sector “needs to happen to meet the U.S.’s contribution to the Paris Agreement,” Haven told Grist. To gauge each utility’s stance on climate action and its impact on state and federal policy, Haven and her coauthors combed through hundreds of publicly available documents and recordings, ranging from social media posts to testimonials given at state hearings. Although four utilities — including Edison International and PG&E, both headquartered in California — were broadly supportive of state and federal climate policy, the majority showed either “mixed” or “negative” engagement. Their tactics included directly appealing to policymakers to keep fossil fuels as part of their states’ energy mixes and threatening legal action against cities’ proposed renewable energy standards. Many utilities have also mounted astroturf campaigns — corporate-backed efforts that create the appearance of grassroots public support — to cast fossil fuels in a positive light.Among the worst utilities named in the report were CenterPoint Energy in Texas, Southern Company in Georgia, and FirstEnergy Corporation in Ohio, all of which have recently worked to undermine climate policy at the state and federal level. Last year, for example, CenterPoint Energy and Southern Company bothsupported state bills to prevent cities from banning gas appliances in new buildings. Other utilities, like the California-based Sempra Energy, have advocated at the city and county levelagainst municipal building electrification proposals. One reason for this opposition may be that many of the power utilities named in the report also have natural gas distribution arms that deliver gas directly to customers for heating and cooking.
Texas Power Plant Files for Bankruptcy to Address Winter Storm Lawsuits, Debt -- A Texas natural gas-fired power plant filed for bankruptcy on Monday to sell itself in court after it struggled to address more than a hundred lawsuits stemming from an extreme winter storm last year. Ector County Energy Center LLC, a 330-megawatt power plant in Ector County, Texas, is facing 113 lawsuits after winter storm Uri caused a massive blackout in the state in February 2021. One...
OSHA officials admit to shredding documents in Tennessee Valley Authority coal ash case – Tennessee Lookout - For two months, teams of workers had been toiling around the clock to clean up a colossal spill of toxic coal ash unleashed in East Tennessee when a containment wall buckled, loosing millions of tons of the sludge across the landscape. They were working unprotected, secure in the knowledge they were safe because the Tennessee Valley Authority repeatedly told them so. But now, an alarm was raised: The coal ash was radioactive, and the workers were in grave danger, warned a complaint filed in February 2009 with the U.S. Occupational Health and Safety Administration, which oversees workplace conditions. “Employees are working in hazardous conditions at this (Tennessee Valley Authority) spill … overexposure to radiation, overexposure to arsenic, workers without respirators,” the February 2009 complaint said. By rule, the agency should have shut down the TVA work site and launched an investigation. Instead, OSHA passed along the complaint to TVA. Two months later, TVA told OSHA there was nothing to worry about: all the workers had been masked and protected as required by federal law, but no longer needed the precautions. It was a lie. Officials with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration admit they shredded documents regarding the safety of workers involved in the cleanup of a massive coal ash spill in 2009–but say the shredding was legal under the agency’s policies. Now, at least 54 of those workers who cleaned up TVA’s massive spill of radioactive coal ash in Kingston, Tennessee, are dead. Hundreds more are sick. Sickened workers and survivors of the dead are suing Jacobs Engineering, the global contractor TVA put in charge of the disaster clean-up, in U.S. District Court. In the years following the completion of the clean up, OSHA twice said the agency never received a complaint about worker safety at the Kingston site. Now, after an investigation by the Tennessee Lookout, the agency is admitting it shredded the file — after workers began filing formal complaints of unexplained illnesses. OSHA says the destruction was legal under its policies and denies the agency was bound by an EPA order on the Kingston spill that required all records be retained through December 2018.
New study shows increase in black lung disease in coal miners – Higher levels of silica dust can be found in the lung tissue of contemporary coal miners compared to the lung tissue in previous generations of coal miners, according to a new study in the Annals of the American Thoracic Society. The study helps explain the recent increase in severe pneumoconiosis – often referred to as black lung disease – concentrated in central Appalachia (West Virginia, Virginia and Kentucky) miners. The study, “Pathology and Mineralogy Demonstrate Respirable Crystalline Silica is a Major Cause of Severe Pneumoconiosis in U.S. Coal Miners”, is unique in that it compares the lung tissue of the current generation of coal miners to lung tissue collected from miners from previous generations.Silica is a naturally occurring substance that is ubiquitous in the earth’s mantle. Over ninety percent of rocks contain silica. While safe in rock formations, breathing in silica dust is highly toxic and prolonged exposure to silica dust can lead to severe lung disease. From 1970 to 2005, the rate of black lung cases among coal miners had been declining, largely due to improved occupational health practices required by federal regulations. However, since 2005, black lung cases in general have seen a three-fold increase and long-term coal miners have seen a 10-fold increase in black lung cases. The study conducted by Robert Cohen, MD – director of the Mining Education and Research Center at the University of Illinois, Chicago (UIC) – and colleagues provides strong evidence that silica is a major cause for the previously unexplained rise in black lung cases.The change in silica exposure among coal miners is likely explained by changing mining practices initially adopted in the 1950s, as the coal industry started using powerful mechanized coal extraction devices. The powerful coal mining machinery enabled companies to extract large swaths of rock above and below the coal seams, which is much easier than mining focused on narrow veins of coal. This resulted in the generation of more silica dust.In addition to providing an explanation, the study helps mine owners and federal regulators to better understand steps that must be taken to prevent future cases of black lung. “Reducing coal miner exposure to silica dust is essential to prevent further black lung cases,” said Dr. Cohen, clinical professor of environmental and occupational health sciences at UIC. “This study provides clear, actionable evidence for the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) to establish specific silica dust exposure limits to protect coal miners from the known dangers of black lung disease.”
State says Claxton playground is safe after worries about coal ash - The Tennessee Department of Health has declared Kid's Palace, a playground in the Claxton community, does not pose a health risk to children who play there.The playground has been at the center of controversy after it was learned that bottom ash was used as fill in the construction of the playground. Coal ash is the byproduct of burning coal to produce electricity, and contains a multitude of elements that could pose a threat to human health if a person was exposed enough to it.Anderson County closed the park in mid-February after Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation staffers discovered damage to the liner that separates the playground's surface from the fill below that includes coal ash. The park was reopened in early Marchafter repairs were made.
U.S. warns energy firms of a rapidly advancing hacking threat - - The Department of Energy and U.S. intelligence agencies are warning the energy sector of a newly discovered “custom-made” malware targeting the systems that control electricity and natural gas infrastructure.Yesterday’s joint alert called on energy companies to beef up their defenses against a new method of attack capable of gaining “full system access.” The alert is the latest in a series of intelligence warnings that Russia’s state-backed hackers are hard at work updating their old methods and coming up with new tools for entering, disrupting and destroying energy industry equipment.While the alert didn’t say which nation developed the new malware, the news comes on the heels of a major Russian incursion into one of Ukraine’s regional electricity grids. The Ukrainian government said Tuesday it had thwarted an attempt by an elite Russian hacking team known as “Sandworm” to damage industrial control systems (ICS) that run high-voltage substations. If the attack had succeeded, it likely would have temporarily shut off power to 2 million people (Energywire, April 13). The joint alert yesterday from DOE, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the FBI and the National Security Agency said the new malware is able to conduct “highly automated” attacks on energy infrastructure. And researchers say it could open the door to “lower-skilled” hackers who aren’t able to fully map out an electricity or gas system.The tool has a wide range of uses, according to experts: from initial infiltration and reconnaissance of industrial systems to manipulation and disruption of grid equipment. The hacking tool can also compromise Windows-based engineering workstations, according to the government report.Cybersecurity firms Dragos Inc. and Mandiant also published separate reports analyzing the malware yesterday.“We note that the activity is consistent with Russia’s historical interest in ICS,” said Nathan Brubaker, director of analysis at Mandiant. Mandiant’s report says the new hacking tool “poses the greatest threat to Ukraine, NATO member states, and other states actively responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”Mandiant experts named the threat “Incontroller” and called it an “exceptionally rare and dangerous” strain of malware. Brubaker compared this malware to Triton, the malware that led to a partial shutdown of a petrochemical and refining complex in Saudi Arabia. Like the Triton malware, hackers could use Incontroller to disable safety systems in a network while reprogramming other systems. Experts say that combination can have destructive outcomes.“This could cause impacts to human safety, the environment, or damage to equipment, depending on the physical constraints of the process and facility design,” Mandiant experts wrote in their report. In a separate report, Dragos named the malware “Pipedream.” “It can disrupt, degrade, and potentially destroy industrial environments and processes,” Dragos said in its analysis. The malware was developed to target ICS systems, including supervisory control and data acquisition systems that often operate pipelines.
Canfield fire chief, officials discuss concerns over plans to build school near ethane pipeline --- There's a pipeline that's been running through parts of the Valley for eight years, but now some parents and residents in Canfield are now sharing their concerns about the pipeline after Canfield Local School District's announcement to build its new K-8 school compound on a property that contains an eight-inch Highly Volatile Liquid (HVL) pipeline. The transmission line runs across the former 300-acre Red Gate Farm at the corner of Leffingwell and Palmyra Roads, which was annexed into the city of Canfield in 2017. This location for the proposed school site was recently announced as part of a development agreement that provided the district with 100 acres for the new school compound. The concern from residents is based on what flows through the pipeline – ethane – a colorless, odorless gas that is used in the making of plastics. According to the Chemical Safety Information from the World Health Organization, ethane is listed as a highly volatile liquid and an extremely flammable gas, which if released, can displace oxygen, can produce a vapor cloud, and large fireball combustion. Ethane is listed as a hazardous substance by the U.S. Department of Transportation, American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists, and National Fire Protection Association, which rates substances as fire and/or explosive hazards.The pipeline is part of the Mariner West pipeline, a 400-mile ethane pipeline that starts near Pittsburgh and runs through part of Columbiana County and across Mahoning County and continues on to Ontario.In February, the Canfield Local School District shared its vision for the location of the K-8 compound with the public, which shows the proposed building approximately 200 feet from the existing Mariner West pipeline. On April 5, Canfield Fire Chief Don Hutchinson sent a letter to Canfield Local Schools Superintendent Joe Knoll, after speaking with the US. Department of Transportation, the federal agency that regulates pipelines in the U.S. In the letter, Hutchinson wrote “my review of the regulations suggest that placement of the school and related facilities would be in a 'high consequence area' and … “The proposed placement of the school facilities has raised a significant safety concern for me, as it should for the school administration.”According to Chief Hutchinson, he has been speaking with the operator of the ethane pipeline that runs through Canfield and the township and said an immediate evacuation for “an isolated leak is 330 feet in all directions” would be needed, which coincides with the DOT Office of Pipeline Safety distance for High Consequence Areas, based on product and size piping and the pounds per square inch for 300 feet. Richard Kuprewicz, president of Accufacts, Inc. out of Redmond, WA., specializes in investigations on pipelines for safety, construction, and risk management, recommends an evacuation radius of at least a half-mile, or 2,640 feet if a vapor cloud were to form from a leak, crack or rupture. Kuprewicz said an 8-inch ethane pipeline leak could cause damage to nearby buildings, but rupture would be more destructive.Canfield Local Schools Superintendent Joe Knoll said that the Canfield Local Board of Education and his office have been spending the last few months reviewing pipeline data and having discussions with the pipeline operator and the local fire department. “There are a lot of safety measures that the pipeline operators have in place,” Knoll said, “Which is good for us in a school setting.”
Oil and gas production expected to increase in Guernsey County - Industry experts expect to see an increase in oil and gas production in the Utica Shale region including Guernsey County this year due to a rising demand resulting from global issues and domestic usage. Guernsey County currently has 300 Utica shale well permits and the most active producers in the county are Ascent Resources with 130 permits, Southwestern Energy with 69 and Utica Resources with 31. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources reports 24 wells — 23 productive and 1 exploratory — were drilled in Guernsey County in 2019, the latest year for which statistics are available. The average well depth was 19,918 feet with an estimated footage drilled of 478,029. The most recent horizontal shale production statistics for Guernsey County from 2019 totaled 13,556,178 barrels of oil and 91,078,704 Mcf of gas. "The industry in Guernsey County is strong, and it's active," said Mike Chadsey of the Ohio Oil & Gas Association after a recent roundtable discussion attended by Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose at the Cambridge Country Club. "It's because what's happening globally. "Some of the opportunities and challenges happening right now are allowing us to put (drilling) units together...get leases together and go out and drill to lift that commodity out of the ground. You will see increased activity here in Guernsey County this year, and beyond this year." There are 12 drilling rigs currently in operation in the Utica region across southeast Ohio. According to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, more than 275,000 gas wells had been drilled statewide as of 2019 with 2.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas production. The most recent statistics available also show 55,921 oil wells have produced 27 million barrels of crude oil. "I think it's strong," said LaRose of Ohio's oil and gas industry "Ohio has done smart things to be a welcoming state when it comes to energy, and there's good reason for that. All you need to do is look to Europe right now." "Shutting off Russia's oil supply, you are going to have to make that up somewhere and that's where you are seeing some renewed interest in the western part of the Utica shale formation because it's more rich in oil deposits," said George Brown of OOGEEP. "The great thing about Guernsey County is the entire natural gas ecosystem that goes along with it (oil)." Ohio is home to four oil refineries, which can produce nearly 600,000 barrels of crude oil daily, according to the Ohio Oil & Gas Energy Education Program. That's enough oil to produce 11.4 millions gallons of gasoline per day. The rate at which oil and gas production will increase in Guernsey County this year will depend on several variables, according to local officials. "It will probably depended producer to producer based on what their plans are...their access to capital and what their drilling units look like, but I would say we will see increased activity this year," said Chadsey. "Our people can't turn on a dime. You do have to get a permit, get your hands on a rig, a crew and all that stuff, so it will probably be a slow ramp up but I think we will continue to see more activity and excitement about that activity here in Guernsey County." The county continues to be on the western edge of the Utica shale play in what is referred to as the oil window. Brown said there are two-overlaying issues that will slow production in Guernsey and other counties nearby when it come to oil and gas. "One is the certainty in the planning that needs to go into the preparation process for exploration," he said. "It takes time. It can take up to a year, if not more, to get a rig in place and get it in the process of exploration. An atmosphere that is more encouraging of domestic, made in Ohio energy is important. "And two, building out the critical energy infrastructure to get that product to meet its market. There are currently five pipeline proposals that have either been canceled or opposed that would haven taken the gas and oil coming from Ohio and other parts of the basin to end users either on the east coast of the United State or down south to meet the needs.
One Less Way for Ohio Landowners to Challenge Royalty Severances - The National Law Review - On February 15, 2022, the Ohio Supreme Court issued a significant decision in Peppertree Farms, L.L.C. v. Thonen establishing that, unless expressly stated otherwise, an oil and gas royalty interest retained in a deed executed prior to 1925 is not limited to the lifetime of the grantor. In so holding, the Ohio Supreme Court cut off one of the only grounds, other than the Dormant Minerals Act and Marketable Title Act, for landowners to quiet title and eliminate past oil and gas severances. Ohio follows a legal tradition under which the default rules of English “common law” were adopted and then adapted by statute to form the basis of our legal system. At common law, a conveyance of real property had to include “words of inheritance” (i.e., an express statement that the royalty interest would last in perpetuity and be inheritable) or the interest being conveyed would be limited to the lifetime of the grantee (a life estate). Additional complications arose when a grantor sought to retain an interest by deed. If the grantor was retaining a right which had already been conveyed to him in perpetuity, then the retention qualified as a “technical exception” of a pre-existing right and additional words of inheritance were not required. However, if the grantor was creating and then retaining a new right, the retention qualified as a “technical reservation” and was limited to a life estate. As new modes of production and corresponding property rights were discovered, it became unclear exactly what rights pre-existed a severance and the whole system of distinctions fell apart. In 1925, the General Assembly passed a law establishing that all future conveyances of real property were presumed perpetual unless stated otherwise. While eliminating this issue as to future deeds, the General Assembly did not settle the issue as to deeds executed before 1925 or clarify whether the retention of an oil and gas royalty was a “technical exception” or “technical reservation.” In the Peppertree Farms case, Plaintiffs Peppertree Farms, Jay Moore and Amy Moore (collectively, “Peppertree”) sought to quiet title to certain lands in Monroe County, Ohio, against a severed oil and gas royalty interest (the “Royalty Interest”) originally retained by the grantor under a 1921 deed. In addition to a claim for extinguished under Ohio’s Marketable Title Act, Peppertree asserted that the Royalty Interest did not include words of inheritance and was therefore a newly created right which terminated upon the death of the grantor under the 1921 deed. Conversely, the defendant royalty owners (“Royalty Owners”) argued that the Royalty Interest was a pre-existing right which the grantor already held, and therefore could retain, in perpetuity without words of inheritance. While Peppertree was able to convince both the trial and appellate court that the Royalty Interest was a newly created interest which was limited to a life estate, it was unsuccessful with the Ohio Supreme Court. Reasoning that a royalty was nothing more than the retention of part of the right to receive the proceeds of oil and gas production, the Court ultimately found that the Royalty Interest was a “technical exception” which survived the lifetime of the grantor. As a result, Peppertree was limited to its claims for extinguishment under the Marketable Title Act and Ohio surface owners lost another means to challenge ancient royalty reservations.
Fighting Off A Petrochemical Future in the Ohio River Valley - - It was 2007, and the fracking industry was just beginning to take hold in southwest Pennsylvania. The then-fledgling industry was not really on Vanessa Lynch’s radar; between raising a daughter and working full-time as a therapist, she had her hands full. Things got even busier when she had her son in April 2009 and he began suffering from frightening wheezing spells when he was 6 months old, requiring periodic medical attention. “Honestly, I really had very little understanding of what was going on in the region,” she says.Just before her daughter was set to start kindergarten, Lynch and her family moved half an hour away to Indiana Township to be close to a good school and have more space to play outside. The neighborhood had everything the growing family could hope for, with a park to play soccer and softball and a creek for summertime wading.A couple of years later, however, she learned via a neighbor’s Facebook post that the fracking industry had quietly placed a gas drilling site in her community, just above the local park. Infuriated and inspired to act, in 2018, Lynch joined up with the local chapter of the national environmental advocacy group Moms Clean Air Force, where she now works as a part-time organizer.Lynch and her fellow organizers were not able to shut down the well pad, but they did win more protective ordinances for the township, shielding approximately 85% of its land from future drilling.Now, though, there’s another threat lurking at Lynch’s door: a plastics manufacturing plant that Shell Oil is constructing just an hour away, on the banks of the Ohio River.Shell’s ethane-cracker plant, which it began building in 2017, is set to open later this year, but the company has not yet announced a firm date and did not respond to a request for comment. The first facility of its kind in Appalachia, it will use extreme heat to “crack” ethane, a byproduct of fracked gas, into ethylene, a building block for manufacturing plastic.The facility will produce more than 1 million tons of plastic pellets per year, which will be used to make products ranging from phone cases to auto parts. As it does, the facility will spew hundreds of tons of dangerous compounds into the air while also emitting planet-heating pollution. And it will be fed by the fracked gas from thousands of wells peppered across Appalachian communities—communities like Lynch’s.
Amid Hopes and Fears, a Plastics Boom in Appalachia Is On Hold - Yale E360 - Retired and newly married, Karen Gdula was asleep when, just before 5 a.m., an explosion shook her rural western Pennsylvania home. The roar was so loud that some of her neighbors thought it was a plane crash. But when she and her husband saw a fireball stretching above the tops of the towering pine trees across the street, they knew exactly what had happened. The Revolution Pipeline, running right behind Ivy Lane in Center Township, about 25 miles northwest of Pittsburgh, had come into service only days before, carrying gas from the fracking wells that are everywhere in the region. No one was hurt, but the explosion flattened a home three doors down from Gdula’s and toppled six giant electrical transmission towers. Now, Revolution is back in service, and another pipeline has come to Ivy Lane, too. It’s called Line N, and it feeds gas to the vast, $6 billion petrochemical plant Shell is building five miles away in Monaca, right on the Ohio River. That plant, called an “ethane cracker,” will soon turn ethane — a byproduct of fracking — into 1.6 million tons of raw plastic a year.Five years ago, the flood of ethane coming from the Ohio River Valley’s fracking wells got the plastic industry — petrochemical firms that are often subsidiaries of big fossil fuel producers — dreaming about a new generation of massive plants in the region. Companies envisioned building as many as four more ethane crackers like Shell’s in Appalachia, and state and local officials from both parties embraced the idea.That vision is now foundering. Obstacles including global overproduction of plastic, local opposition to pipelines that feed such facilities, and public concern about the tidal wave of waste choking oceans and landscapes mean that even the region’s second proposed ethane cracker may never materialize. Additional plants look even less likely. The question mark over the industry’s once-grand hopes for Appalachia reflects larger doubts about its plans for dramatically Driving oil and gas companies’ plastic production ambitions is the understanding that action on climate change may soon reduce demand for their fuels. Plastic is central to their hopes of keeping profits flowing, so they’ve been pouring money into building new plants and expanding old ones, on track to double 2016 global plastic production levels by 2036. Fracking has made the United States a major player in this international buildout. The American Chemistry Council, an industry association, says companies are investing more than $200 billion in U.S. chemical projects using fracked ingredients. Most of that growth has happened on the Gulf Coast, the country’s long-standing petrochemical hub.
Gas company to explore State Game Lands in Tioga County — The Pennsylvania Board of Game Commissioners recently approved an agreement that will allow a Texas-based energy company to develop oil and gas interests on State Game Lands in Tioga County.The agreement between the Game Commission and Seneca Resources Company will result in a $730,500 bonus payment, and royalties paid to the commission over the 10-year term of the agreement. That money will be added to the Game Fund, the commission says.Seneca Resources will explore about 409 acres of State Game Lands 313 in Delmar and Chatham townships, according to the agreement.The main tract is located in Delmar Township, less than three miles northwest of Wellsboro. The second tract is just north of Little Marsh. The third tract lies between US 6 and and Marsh Creek.Although the gamelands is in a mostly rural setting, it's right next to a railroad that supplies the local natural gas industry, according to the Game Commission.Seneca Resources, which has an eastern division based in Pittsburgh, operates approximately 900 deep, unconventional Marcellus and Uitca shale wells in Pennsylvania
Public health in Pennsylvania ignored during fracking rush: Report - In a rush to reap the economic benefits of fracking, the Pennsylvania Department of Health (DOH), the state General Assembly and three governors ignored or gave underwhelming responses to public health concerns, according to a new white paperfrom the nonprofit Environmental Health Project.“[I]t is clear that, to date, many members of the General Assembly, the Governor’s Office, and the DOH have failed to make a good faith effort to understand and address the health risks and resulting health impacts of shale gas development,” the paper, entitled "Pennsylvania's Shale Gas Boom: How Policy Decisions Failed to Protect Public Health and What We Can Do to Correct It," states.Environmental Health Project, a health organization focused on how shale gas drilling and its byproducts impact communities, collected health data from Pennsylvania residents living near shale wells, which now number more than 13,000 in permits, to make up for what it describes as inaction by the state.“Since we have been doing this for 10 years, it seemed like time to reflect on the comprehensive narrative on how we got to where we are today,” said EHP Executive Director Alison L. Steele.Research has linked increased risk of infant mortality, low birth rates, depression, and hospitalizations for skin and urinary issues to live near fracking wells. The findings come a year after Environmental Health News’ “Fractured” investigation, which found that Western Pennsylvania families near fracking are exposed to harmful chemicals, and regulations fail to protect communities' mental, physical, and social health. The report traces much of the systematic neglect to Act 13, passed in 2012 under Republican Gov. Tom Corbett. The law established some fundamentals for shale drilling in Pennsylvania. It enabled the state to preempt some local environmental laws and zoning authority in order to establish uniform statewide standards for shale gas well development. Act 13 also created the “impact fee,” an annual per-well fee paid by the operator. Pennsylvania is the only state to tax drill operators in this way; the 33 other oil producing states tax profits. While the fees generated about $150 million to $200 million a year, the report states that, “It has been estimated that a severance tax, either instead of or in addition to an impact fee, would have provided the state with billions of dollars in revenue over the first decade of the shale boom.”
Dr. Oz's First-Class Flip-Flop On Fracking - Mehmet Oz, the celebrity TV surgeon better known as Dr. Oz, used to write and tweet about the health benefits ofcoconut oil,lavender oil,CBD oil,MCT oil, avocado and olive oil.He also appeared to be a strong opponent of fracking, warning his readersinmultiplearticles about the potential health risks associated with one of the more controversial fossil fuel extracting technologies.Hydraulic fracturing, better known as “fracking,” involves pumping a pressurized mixture of water, sand and chemicals into underground rock formations to release oil and natural gas.In 2014, an Ohio man asked Oz and Dr. Mike Roizen, then the chief medical officer at the Cleveland Clinic Wellness Institute, whether it was true that fracking is polluting air and groundwater and threatening public health.Oz and Roizen replied that it was “a fact” that the process pumps “toxic chemicals” deep into the ground.“We wonder how eager the leaders of the natural gas industry would be to drink well water from a farm next to one of their drilling sites,” Oz and Roizen wrote in ahealth and wellnessQ&A, adding that in Pennsylvania, “there are multiple reports of air and water contamination, possibly from hydraulic fracturing sites, causing folks breathing problems, rashes, headaches, nosebleeds, numbness, nausea and vomiting.”But now that Oz is a GOP Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, he is apparently less concerned about fracking’s possible health effects on his potential constituents and more interested in preserving an industry active in the state.“Back off Biden! Give us freedom to frack!” Oz said Wednesday in a rambling TikTokvideo while pumping gas somewhere in the Keystone State.
The climate war we cannot afford to lose - Martins Ferry Times Leader - Dear Editor, Dr. Svitlana Krakovska, a Ukrainian climate scientist and member of the International Panel on Climate Change recently said, “Human induced climate change and the war on Ukraine have the same roots, fossil fuels, and our dependence on them,” Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels from Russia is “funding the war” in Ukraine. Russia, the second largest producer of natural gas, has been accused of using the resource in a geopolitical way against European countries dependent on its gas. Europe views the worsening situation in Ukraine as justification to double up its investments in renewable energy and cut Europe’s demand for natural gas. The IEA and EU leaders want to fast-track permitting for wind and solar projects, revisit decisions to phase out nuclear energy, and double the rate of conversions from natural gas boilers to electric heat pumps in buildings.”However, oil and gas companies in the U.S., along with many politicians including Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Bill Johnson of CD 6 Ohio, are using the war to rationalize more drilling and fracking in the U.S., basically, ignoring the real war at our doorstep; the war for a livable planet. Natural Resource Chair Raul Grijalva (D-Arizona) said in a recent op-ed, “Doubling down on fossil fuels is a false solution that only perpetuates the problems that got us here in the first place.”The newly released UN Climate Report clearly shows we are losing the battle against climate change. UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteras said “the evidence detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is unlike anything he has ever seen, an “atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.”Make no mistake, we all are witnessing a war; a war waged on our planet by the fossil fuel industry and those who benefit financially from these industries. Like most wars, money is needed to fund this endeavor. Federal taxpayer-funded grants, subsidies, and tax incentives help fuel the climate crisis by providing financial incentives for continued extraction. “Conservative estimates put U.S. direct subsidies to the fossil fuel industry at roughly $20 billion per year, with 20 percent currently allocated to coal and 80 percent to natural gas and crude oil.”Just like a conventional war, propaganda and lies are used to mold public opinion.“The fossil fuel industry has perpetrated a multi-decade, multibillion dollar disinformation propaganda and lobbying campaign to delay climate action by confusing the public and policymakers about the climate crisis and its solutions.”It is difficult to win a war when the cards are stacked against you, but the war for a livable planet is one we cannot afford to lose. It is time to demand renewable energy and stop subsidizing the companies responsible for the destruction of our planet. As Dr. Svitlana Krakovska of Ukraine said, “We will not surrender in Ukraine, and we hope the world will not surrender in building a climate-resilient future.” --Randi Jeannine Pokladnik
New York shows the challenges of phasing out fossil fuels, even in blue states - In December, when the New York City Council voted to ban natural gas use in new buildings, environmentalists in the Big Apple barely stopped to celebrate. Instead, they set their sights on a bigger target: making New York the first state in the country to phase out gas use in new buildings, a significant source of air pollution and planet-warming emissions. But the environmentalists suffered a setback last week, when the New York State Legislature omitted a building electrification measure from the state budget, delivering a victory to industry groups that argued the bill would raise utility bills. While climate activists pledged to keep pushing for the measure, the ongoing battle underscores the challenges that advocates face in seeking to curb fossil fuel use, even in blue states like New York that have set aggressive climate goals. The stakes are high. In 2019, lawmakers approved a landmark bill committing the state to cut its greenhouse gas emissions 40 percent by 2030 and at least 85 percent by 2050. Energy used for heating, cooling and lighting in buildings accounts for about 60 percent of emissions in New York. Dan Zarrilli, the former chief climate policy adviser to former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D), said that New York risks missing its climate targets if new buildings are allowed to use gas appliances such as furnaces and stoves, rather than electric appliances such as heat pumps and induction cooktops. “We can’t keep installing new fossil fuel infrastructure if we hope to meet our goals,” Zarrilli told The Climate 202. “You know, when you’re in a hole, you’ve got to stop digging.” Karen Harbert, president and chief executive of the American Gas Association, a trade group, disagreed. “It would be a mistake to prevent homes and businesses in New York from signing up for natural gas service,” Harbert said in a statement. “I doubt New Yorkers will be happy about their policymakers raising their bills on a whim that will not achieve their environmental goals and forecloses on future emissions reduction opportunities.” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) included a ban on gas use in new construction by 2027 in her executive budget for the next fiscal year. But the measure was absent from the final budget deal announced last week. Alex Beauchamp, Northeast region director for Food & Water Watch, said he thinks that Hochul bears some responsibility for the outcome in addition to State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie. “Governor Hochul probably shares a part of the blame,” Beauchamp said. “This is clearly a governor who, if she had pushed, could have gotten this done and for whatever reason didn't feel the need to push on it.”
FERC approves MVP waterbody crossings - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved changes to the way waterbodies will be crossed in certain routes of the Mountain Valley Pipeline.FERC issued an order late Friday that approved, with conditions, MVP's request to use underground trenchless boring methods to cross 183 waterbodies and wetlands at 120 locations instead of an open-cut dry crossings approach to pipeline construction.However, MVP is asking the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for approval to use open-cut methods to cross five waterbodies, according to the FERC filing. The Army Corps will decide on those requests separately.The FERC order also avoids a wetland and waterbody and allows MVP, when construction resumes, to work 24 hours a day at eight crossings using the trenchless method.The approval was needed because MVP, a 303-mile pipeline through West Virginia and Virginia to carry Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas, was no longer able to use a previous Army Corps of Engineers Nationwide Permit 12 approval that called for open-cut waterbody crossings. That Nationwide Permit 12 had been spiked by the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in November 2020, which required MVP to change the method.MVP is being built and will be operated and partially owned by Canonsburg-based Equitrans Midstream Corp. (NYSE: ETRN)."This is another important step forward in MVP's project completion and, as a critical infrastructure project, is essential for our nation's energy security, reliability, and ability to transition to a lower-carbon future," said MVP spokeswoman Natalie Cox.The approval doesn't immediately mean MVP can resume construction. It has, in the past three months, lost two key approvals — also from U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals decisions — and it will need to regain them and a U.S. Army Corp of Engineers go-ahead before construction can begin.A condition on FERC's approval "prohibits Mountain Valley from commencing construction activities associated with the Amendment Project until it receives authorization from the Corps to complete its proposed open-cut crossings."It's not clear how the approval will move the project forward immediately. While the pipeline had been, as late as early January, been expected to be completed by the end of the summer, Equitrans this year announced that it wouldn't happen due to the circuit court rulings. And it has yet to announce a new timeline. "This approval does not allow for new construction on the delayed pipeline, and key outstanding permits from the Forest Service, the FWS (Fish and Wildlife Service), and the Army Corps of Engineers must still be replenished," said Rob Rains, an analyst with Washington Analysis. "After this FERC approval, we maintain that the pipeline will most likely get competed, but we still also believe that there is no quick path forward, and that the project must thread the needle of receiving all its permits and dealing with litigation at the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals."
After losing several permits, Mountain Valley Pipeline wins one for stream boring - After running into a series of roadblocks this year, Mountain Valley Pipeline has won approval to bore under about 180 streams and wetlands it must cross to complete the natural gas pipeline. In a unanimous order Friday afternoon, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorized what is essentially one piece of the construction that remains unfinished due to adverse court rulings. FERC amended its 2017 certificate – perhaps the most important approval among more than a dozen federal and state permits – to allow Mountain Valley to tunnel below some water bodies, rather than digging a trench along their bottoms to bury a 42-inch diameter pipe using what’s called an open-cut process. Mountain Valley still lacks authorizations from other agencies to ford the remaining streams and wetlands by open cut, and to pass through the Jefferson National Forest. Also unresolved is the project’s impact on endangered species. The pipeline, which cuts through Southwest Virginia, nonetheless applauded FERC’s order. In its 72-page order Friday, FERC found that boring under water bodies would cause less environmental damage than the open-cut method. The commission had initially approved the method in 2017 for nearly 1,000 crossings, but those plans ran into legal challenges from environmental groups. “Today’s order amending Mountain Valley’s certificate will almost certainly represent an improvement over the status quo,” FERC Chairman Richard Glick and member Allison Clements wrote in a concurring opinion. Glick and Clements have previously voiced concerns about FERC “putting the cart before the horse” by approving work on the pipeline before the developer had obtained all of its required permits from other agencies. “Those concerns may be heightened when, as here, the permits and authorizations needed to develop the project have been vacated – several times – by the courts,” the opinion stated. But this case is different, Glick and Clements concluded, for three reasons. First, the amendment will actually reduce environmental damage. Second, no additional land would have to be taken by eminent domain for the “almost entirely constructed” pipeline. And thirdly, they wrote, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals struck down a permit for the pipeline to pass through the national forest, in part, because the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management did not first consider FERC’s environmental analysis of boring under streams.
FERC approval boosts outlook for Mountain Valley pipeline, but hurdles remain The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved Mountain Valley Pipeline's request to change water crossing methods in a decision that cleared one obstacle for the long-delayed natural gas pipeline project. Not rThe commission's order April 8 amended the original Mountain Valley permit issued in October 2017 to allow the project developer to bore under wetlands and water bodies along more than 70 miles of the pipeline route instead of using the previously approved open-cut method (CP16-10, CP21-57). "Mountain Valley's usage of trenchless waterbody crossings will result in fewer environmental impacts than the crossing method that the commission approved under the original certificate, meaning that today's order amending Mountain Valley's certificate will almost certainly represent an improvement over the status quo," FERC Commissioner Richard Glick and fellow Democratic Commissioner Allison Clements wrote in a concurring statement. The 2-Bcf/d, 304-mile gas pipeline project is almost complete, but litigation and permitting challenges delayed work on the final pieces. The FERC authorization was conditional pending new approvals from the US Fish and Wildlife Service under the Endangered Species Act, forest crossing authorizations from the US Forest Service and US Bureau of Land Management, and a water crossing permit by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Mountain Valley Pipeline proposed the alternative water crossing method in February 2021 after a court setback over stream crossing authorizations for the project. Clements and Glick said the April 8 approval did not authorize any route changes and would not affect any new landowners, "which helps to mitigate our longstanding concerns over the prospect of private property being condemned long before construction begins on a project that may never be fully approved." FERC unanimously approved Mountain Valley's alternative water crossing method at a time when the commission's Democratic majority has faced criticism over the FERC approach to permitting natural gas infrastructure. The criticism from lawmakers and industry has intensified as Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in European demand for US gas. The Mountain Valley developer described the FERC approval as a welcome development for the project that would connect Appalachian gas to downstream markets. "This is another important step forward in MVP's project completion and, as a critical infrastructure project, is essential for our nation's energy security, reliability, and ability to transition to a lower-carbon future," spokesperson Natalie Cox said in an April 11 email. Analysts at ClearView Energy Partners said the authorization was "very constructive to the project's outlook," though "hurdles remain." "FERC's order does not put MVP back into the field with new construction authorizations, but we do think it represents substantial evidence of federal regulatory support for the project,"
The United States ended the winter with the least natural gas in storage in three years - Increased heating demand for natural gas this past winter resulted in more withdrawals from U.S. natural gas storage than normal. By the end of March, the least amount of natural gas was held in U.S underground storage in the Lower 48 states since 2019.In January, temperatures across the country were colder than normal, which increased residential, commercial, and electric power demand for natural gas. More heating demand and record-high liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports resulted in above-average withdrawals from working natural gas storage despite increased natural gas production.Working natural gas in underground storage facilities in the Lower 48 states totaled 1,387 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of March 31, 2022. Inventories were 17% lower than the previous five-year average (2017–21) for that time of year, according to our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. Temperatures were relatively mild across the United States from October through mid-January. Net withdrawals from underground storage facilities in the Lower 48 states during January totaled 991 Bcf—the most natural gas withdrawn from storage during any January since 2012. In January 2022, population-weighted heating degree days (a measure of how cold weather is) were 9% higher than the previous 10-year average, which led to higher-than-normal withdrawals in January.
Natural Gas Rallies as Much More Supply Needed to Avoid Winter Crunch; Cash Up -- It was off to the races for natural gas futures prices Monday as a bump in production did little to assuage growing concerns about supply later this year, especially in light of the latest weather data. With chilly weather seen boosting demand for most of this month, the May Nymex futures contract exploded 36.5 cents higher to $6.643/MMBtu. June futures settled at $6.723, up 36.7cents. Spot gas prices also strengthened, with hefty increases on the West Coast. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. jumped 21.0 cents to $6.205. Amid increasing worries that gas producers had yet to respond to higher prices, output finally took a notable step higher on Monday. Bloomberg estimates showed production reaching 96.4 Bcf. At the same time, liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas demand was little changed at around 12.6 Bcf, according to NGI data. LNG was tracking well below highs in the 14 Bcf range earlier this month and throughout much of March. Bespoke Weather Services questioned whether these bearish factors would be enough to turn the tide in sentiment and allow prices to stage a meaningful pullback. “That is a tough guess.” After such a strong price move higher since the middle of March, a break in the rally, even if temporary, would not be a big surprise, according to Bespoke. Alternatively, the market may want to see proof in upcoming government inventory data that balances have loosened enough to at least “tone down” the level of concern regarding storage levels. In order to start making some improvement in storage levels, however, the weather needs to cooperate. Instead, Bespoke said the coming 12 days are seen as a bit cooler in the eastern half of the country. This would push the projected total April gas-weighted degree day count up above 420, well above April 2021 but under 2020 levels. Although more widespread warmth continues to get kicked down the road, EBW Analytics Group pointed out Canadian imports have remained strong. Exports to Mexico also have edged lower seasonally, providing at least some short-term relief in balances. The firm said once milder spring air takes hold across the country, storage deficits may begin to recede by late April. This could help turn back recently irrepressible bullish momentum. Longer term, however, the end-of-October storage outlook has fallen to 3,450 Bcf, down 150 Bcf the past month.
-U.S. natgas futures hit 13-year high on coming cold (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up to a 13-year high on Tuesday with a sharp drop in U.S. output and expectations freezing weather in Alberta, Canada, will boost heating demand as it moves into the United States next week. Chicago, which gets some gas from Alberta, has already seen next-day gas prices rise to their highest since the February freeze in 2021. That price spike came even though the Windy City weather was still about five degrees warmer than normal at 63 degrees Fahrenheit (17.2 Celsius). After rising almost 5% earlier in the session along with a 7% jump in crude futures, traders said U.S. gas prices pulled back after midday forecasts called for less cold weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. front-month gas futures rose 3.7 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $6.680 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since November 2008 for a second day in a row. U.S. gas futures have already soared about 78% so far this year with much higher prices in Europe keeping demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) near record highs as several countries try to wean themselves off Russian gas after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Analysts said that in addition to high global LNG demand, U.S. prices were rising on domestic concerns, including growing worries that cooler weather in April will keep heating demand high enough to prevent utilities from injecting much gas into storage. U.S. gas stockpiles were currently around 17% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. In the spot market, gas prices for Tuesday at the AECO hub in Alberta rose to their highest since March 2014 as homes and businesses crank up their heaters to escape a spring freeze. AccuWeather forecast high temperatures in Calgary, the biggest city in the province, would remain below freezing for much of this week. That compares with a normal high of around 51 F in the city at this time of year. Traders noted that Alberta's cold, expected to reach the United States next week, would reduce gas exports from Canada. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, however, preliminary data showed output was on track to drop 1.9 bcfd to 93.4 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Appalachia. That would be the biggest daily decline since freezing weather shut wells in early February. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid from a record 12.9 bcfd in March to 12.3 bcfd so far in April due mostly to declines at Freeport LNG's facility in Texas and Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. The amount of feedgas flowing to Sabine Pass on Tuesday was on track to fall to a preliminary 3.2 bcfd, the lowest since October 2021.
U.S. natgas futures soar 5% to 13-year high on rising spot prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a fresh 13-year high on Wednesday on a drop in daily output, a rise in daily feedgas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for unusual cold in Alberta, Canada and unusual heat in the U.S. Mid Atlantic region. Next-day prices in Pennsylvania jumped to their highest since the February freeze in 2021 as some consumers dusted off their air conditioners for the first time this year to escape a brief hot spell. Traders noted U.S. futures rose even though the latest forecasts called for less cold and lower-than-expected heating demand in the United States over the next two weeks. U.S. front-month gas futures rose 31.7 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $6.997 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since November 2008, for a third day in a row. U.S. gas futures have already soared about 89% so far this year with much higher prices in Europe keeping demand for U.S. LNG near record highs as several countries try to wean themselves off Russian gas after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. One of the more surprising observations about the recent U.S. price run-up was that while U.S. gas prices have soared about 51% over the past month, European gas, currently trading around $33 per mmBtu, fell about 7% because Russia keeps sending supplies via pipeline and LNG vessels keep delivering cargoes. Analysts said that in addition to high global LNG demand, U.S. prices were rising on domestic concerns including growing worries that cool weather in April could keep heating demand high enough to prevent utilities from injecting much gas into storage. U.S. gas stockpiles were currently around 17% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid from a record 12.9 bcfd in March to 12.4 bcfd so far in April due mostly to declines at Freeport LNG's facility in Texas. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. On a daily basis preliminary data showed feedgas was on track to rise from 11.5 bcfd on Tuesday to 12.5 bcfd on Wednesday.
US natural gas storage rises 15 Bcf, lifting stocks to 1.397 Tcf as deficit grows | S&P Global Commodity Insights -- US natural gas storage activity flipped back to net injections in the first week of April with an undersized addition to stocks widening the deficit and provoking a bullish reaction in the Henry Hub gas futures market. The US Energy Information Administration April 14 announced a 15 Bcf injection to US storage for the week ending April 8—its second reported build of the season, following a one-week hiatus for injections. The build was 5 Bcf more than what was anticipated by an S&P Global Commodity Insights survey of analysts that called for a 10 Bcf addition to stocks in the first week of April. The modest injection lifted US working gas inventories to 1.397 Tcf in the week ended April 8. The storage deficit widened during the week with stocks falling to 439 Bcf, or about 24%, below the year-ago level of 1.836 Tcf and 303 Bcf, or 18%, below the five-year average of 1.7 Tcf, EIA data showed. Immediately following the EIA storage report's release, NYMEX Henry Hub prompt-month futures gained about 15-20 cents, trading at historic levels as high as $7.25/MMBtu, data from the CME group showed. The resumption of net injections to gas storage has done little to cool bullish sentiment in the futures and forwards markets as lingering, cool spring weather exacerbates this season's abiding inventory deficit—promising to fuel additional storage demand during the upcoming summer months. OutlookFor the week ending April 23, temperatures are forecast to remain well below average across the Upper Midwest, throughout the Mississippi River Valley, and along the Eastern Seaboard, according to a six- to 10-day outlook the US National Weather Service published April 13. A regional weather forecast published by S&P Global shows average temperatures across the Midcontinent market area remaining nearly 9 degrees Fahrenheit below normal over the next seven days. In the Northeast—another key heating market—temperatures are expected to average about 2 F below normal. In both regions, heating demand is expected to outpace seasonal averages. For the reporting weeks ending April 15 and April 22, S&P Global's gas supply-demand model is currently predicting injections of 45 Bcf and 42 Bcf, respectively. Assuming that forecast is correct, US inventories would widen their gap to the five-year average to 311 Bcf—potentially making for the largest storage deficit yet this season. Depleted inventories will ultimately require compensatory injection demand to reach pre-winter levels anywhere close to normal this year, which on average amounts to more than 3.6 Tcf by early November, EIA data shows. This summer, though, utilities and storage traders looking to replenish US stocks will be forced to compete with potentially record export demand.
Natural Gas Prices Soar to Fresh Highs After EIA Storage Data Confirms Tight Balances - Natural gas futures finished off the short holiday week with another huge leap higher after the latest inventory data confirmed a sluggish start to the injection season. The May Nymex gas futures contract settled Thursday at $7.300, up 30.3 cents on the day. June futures raced 32.7 cents higher to $7.423. Momentum continued in the spot gas market as well ahead of a chilly weather pattern seen continuing until the last week of April. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 28.0 cents to $6.805. Trading action on Thursday began much like it has on most days this week, with futures prices up at the open as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to provide a volatile backdrop for an increasingly bullish long-term outlook for U.S. gas. Though global gas prices softened ahead of the long Easter weekend, a quick reversal could quickly occur in the event Russia halts gas shipments to Europe. Russian President Putin has demanded payment for his country’s gas supplies in rubles, threatening to halt shipments to buyers that fail to comply. [Want today’s Henry Hub, Houston Ship Channel and Chicago Citygate prices? Check out NGI’s daily natural gas price snapshot now.] A look at March flows, however, indicates that Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports increased by 19% year/year to 3.1 million tons last month, according to shipbroker Banchero Costa. Shipments from the country were also 25% higher than they were in March 2020. Nevertheless, the potential for a stop in Russian gas flows to Europe has kept the market on edge. Against that backdrop, concerns are growing that the Lower 48 could have supply issues of its own next winter. The lingering heating demand, combined with a failure of production to break out of its months-long range, have set up a tall order for the gas market to ensure adequate supply at the end of October. The latest government inventory data confirmed that trend. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a 15 Bcf injection for the week ending April 8, in line with expectations but far under historical norms. During the same week last year, the EIA said stocks rose by 55 Bcf, while the five-year average build is 33 Bcf. The South Central recorded the largest increase in stocks, which were up by a net 28 Bcf, according to EIA. This included a 15 Bcf build in nonsalt facilities and a 13 Bcf build in salts. Pacific inventories added a modest 4 Bcf. However, the continued bursts of cold resulted in yet another drawdown in East and Midwest inventories, which fell by 12 Bcf and 3 Bcf, respectively. Total working gas in storage as of April 8 was 1,397 Bcf, which is 439 Bcf below stocks at this time last year and 303 Bcf below the five-year average, EIA said.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices To Spike As Exports Boom --Europe is determined to wean itself off Russian natural gas following Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, and U.S. LNG is one of the major alternatives. Europe recently had to reconsider its emissions-cutting ambitions in light of the danger of an unprecedented energy crunch. U.S. natural gas producers are only too happy to help. Cue worries about a domestic shortage.European Union governments have been discussing for weeks ways to cut their reliance on Russian oil and gas.There have been claims that the EU can make it through the summer even if gas imports from Russia are cut because there is enough gas in storage. Still, Brussels has stopped short of imposing an embargo on Russian gas, with Germany admitting it cannot afford one.There have been plans to reduce the overwhelming dependence on Russian gas by urgently finding alternative suppliers, including pipeline gas from North Africa and Central Asia, and liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the United States. And the United States has been eager to help.President Biden pledged an additional 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas exports to the European Union this year in the form of LNG, while the EU pledged to create the demand for 50 billion cubic meters annually of U.S. LNG “until at least 2030”.Before the mutual pledges, Europe had already become the largest buyer of U.S. LNG at the start of this year, taking in a record 12.5 billion cubic meters in the form of the super-chilled fuel. But there is a problem. Demand, especially from Europe, is set to rise sharply this year: Wood Mac expects European LNG to add 25 metric tons by the end of 2022. Global supply, on the other hand, is seen adding 17 million tons.The signs of this imbalance are already visible in the United States. Last week, natural gas priceshit the highest level in 13 years, and while some analysts blamed it on the coal price rally, record LNG exports certainly contributed to the trend.Natural gas prices are “sensitive to any near-term supply concerns created by events like a ban on Russia coal exports, abnormally cold weather,” Tortoise portfolio manager Rob Thummel told MarketWatch last week. But perhaps more importantly, U.S. natural gas stocks have fallen.For the week ending April 1, the Energy Information Administration reported that national natural gas stocks were 17 percent below the five-year seasonal average. The agency noted that stocks of working gas were within the five-year average, and yet prices continued to rise.Reuters’ John Kemp noted in a recent column that U.S. natural gas stocks ended the winter of 2021-2022 at a three-year low of 1.382 trillion cubic feet. Working stocks, he also reported, were 19 percent below the pre-pandemic five-year average for the start of April. And all that was because of higher exports.
The Enduring Myth of America’s “Molecules of Freedom” More than six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an unprecedented scramble to reduce the West’s reliance on Russian oil, a narrative about America’s newfound position as a leading fossil fuel producer (and provider) has taken firmer hold of the country’s imagination. To some, it’s almost as though fracking has saved American democracy.This pairing of ideas is hardly new. For decades, the United States has been chasing the dragon of “energy independence” as core to its international interests. It was true the last time the country was dealing with high gas prices, in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis. Back then, the U.S. was the one being sanctioned—by the Arab members of OPEC for American support of Israel during the Arab–Israeli war. The shock of high gas prices and rationing prompted the U.S. government in 1975 to put a ban on U.S. companies exporting oil and gas. That ban remained in place until 2015 when President Obama, after an intense amount of lobbying pressure from the petroleum industry during the heady days of the fracking boom, lifted it.By then, interests had flipped, and now exporting fracked oil and gas was positioned as helping the domestic goal of energy independence. All of a sudden, there were plenty of fossil fuels to go around. If we could be global suppliers of the world’s oil and gas, the story went, we would have more power over world events. “They told people here [in Appalachia], whose sons were off fighting in Iraq, that it was their patriotic duty to lease their land for fracking. That this was how we would get out of Iraq and avoid the next war in the Middle East,” says Heaven Sensky, a fracking lease-holder in Southwestern Pennsylvania who now works with the nonprofit Coalfield Justice to hold fracking companies accountable for their impact on communities. The truth, however, is that the “drill, baby, drill” playbook that has driven domestic policy for more than a decade has failed to deliver the promised energy security. Americans are just as dependent on and impacted by the global energy market as any other country, and now the country’s position as an oil and gas exporter is helping push America toward an escalating energy confrontation with its Cold War foe—with the help of frackers eager to “rescue” Europe by snatching away Russia’s customers.As the old saying goes, if we’re fooled twice, shame on us.It’s hard to overstate the hype that surrounded fracking, and the bipartisan support it enjoyed, in America throughout the 2010s. In Obama’s 2012 State of the Union address, he declared that fracking could unlock enough natural gas from under America’s soil to supply cheap domestic energy for a hundred years. Fracking also offered the promise of escaping the seeming inevitability of Rust Belt decline. Obama predicted that it would create 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade, and in 2016, then-presidential candidate Ted Cruz proclaimed that the industry would create “millions of millions of new high-paying [manufacturing] jobs.” What’s more, because methane combustion emits about half as many pounds of carbon dioxide per million BTU of energy as does coal, shale gas was also widely touted as a “bridge fuel” to renewable energy.
Higher Natural Gas Prices Boost Haynesville Production to Record Highs in 2021, Says EIA - After years of declines, dry natural gas production from the Haynesville Shale reached record highs in the second half of 2021 as prices rose, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The government agency said Haynesville gas production climbed to around 12 Bcf/d by the end of 2021, up from around 10 Bcf/d at the start of the year. Output from the East Texas/Northwest Louisiana play remains strong so far this year as well, with producers adding 17 rigs in the Haynesville since January, according to Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). For the week ending April 8, BKR data showed that there were 64 natural gas-directed rigs operating in the Haynesville, representing 45% of natural gas-directed rigs currently operating in the United States. “Producers tend to increase or decrease the number of drilling rigs in operation as natural gas prices fluctuate,” said EIA researcher Katy Fleury. To that end, Henry Hub natural gas prices have risen sharply over the past year, from around $2.500/MMBtu in January 2021 to $6.56 on April 12, according to NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index. Fleury noted that the number of natural gas-directed rigs in the Haynesville has steadily increased since the second half of 2020, reaching an average of 46 rigs in 2021. This growth follows a sustained decline in production from mid-2012 through 2016 because of the Haynesville’s relatively higher cost to produce. “At depths of 10,500 ft. to 13,500 ft., wells in the Haynesville are deeper than in other plays, and drilling costs tend to be higher,” Fleury said. “By comparison, wells in the Marcellus Shale in the Appalachian Basin are shallower, between 4,000 ft. and 8,500 ft.” Years of relatively low natural gas prices meant it was less economical to drill deeper wells, according to Fleury. However, because natural gas prices have increased since mid-2020, producers have an incentive to increase the number of rigs in operation and use those rigs to drill deeper wells. To be sure, the Haynesville accounted for 13% of all U.S. dry gas production in February, EIA said. Pipeline takeaway capacity out of the Haynesville has also increased in recent years, allowing producers to reach industrial demand centers and liquefied natural gas terminals on the Gulf Coast, according to EIA. EIA’s latest Drilling Productivity Report shows Haynesville output climbing 173 MMcf/d month/month in April. Operators are drawing down their backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells in order to boost production, though the number of drilled but uncompleted wells in the Haynesville was flat from January to February at 369. The Haynesville is the third-largest shale gas-producing play in the United States, according to the agency. The Marcellus – mainly in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio – takes the top spot, averaging 31.7 Bcf/d in 2021. The Permian Basin of West Texas/Southeast New Mexico is the second largest producing basin, averaging 12.4 Bcf/d last year. Altogether, the Marcellus, the Permian and the Haynesville account for 52% of U.S. dry natural gas production, EIA said.
Natural gas-fired generation peaked in 2020 amid growing renewable energy production: IEEFA Natural gas-fired power production likely peaked in 2020 and will gradually be driven lower by higher gas prices and competition from growing amounts of wind and solar capacity, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Finance, a nonprofit group that supports moving away from fossil fuels. Any increased U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to help Europe shift away from Russian purchases would put upward pressure on domestic gas prices, making renewable energy in the U.S. even more competitive compared with gas-fired generation, Seth Feaster, IEEFA energy data analyst, said Tuesday during a webinar on the organization's U.S. 2022 Power Sector Outlook. However, IEEFA doesn't expect the conflict in Ukraine will in any "significant degree" affect the long-term transition toward renewable energy and battery storage in the U.S. power sector, according to Dennis Wamsted, an editor and energy analyst with IEEFA.IEEFA expects wind, solar and hydroelectric generation will make up a third of U.S. power production by 2027, up from about 19% in December, according to its report. "The transition has just started," Wamsted said. "We do believe that the takeoff is right now."The recent increase in gas prices and concerns about methane emissions from gas production and distribution are adding to the challenges facing gas-fired generation, which hit a record high in 2020 of 1.47 billion MWh, according to IEEFA."The soaring cost of fossil fuels and unexpected disruptions in energy security are now supercharging what was already a torrid pace of growth in solar, wind and battery storage projects," IEEFA said in the report.The utility sector is speeding up its exit from coal-fired generation, Wamsted said, pointing to recently announced plans by Georgia Power, the Tennessee Valley Authority and Duke Energy to retire their coal fleets by 2035.Since the U.S. coal fleet peaked in 2012 at 317 GW, about 100 GW has retired and another 100 GW is set to shutter by the end of this decade, partly driven by federal coal ash and water discharge regulations, according to Wamsted.About three-quarters of the generation expected to come online in the next three years is wind, solar and batteries, IEEFA estimated, based on Energy Information Administration data.At least 19,000 MW of offshore wind is under development along the East Coast, with about half of the capacity slated to be online by 2028, according to IEEFA. That capacity will displace fossil-fueled generation in the eastern power markets run by ISO New England, New York Independent System Operator and the PJM Interconnection, Wamsted said.Some of IEEFA's findings were echoed by the EIA's short-term energy outlook issued Tuesday.The agency expects the share of U.S. electricity generation from wind and solar farms will grow to 22% this year and to 23% in 2023, up from 20% last year. Driven by the expected increase in renewable generation, gas-fired generation falls to 35% of U.S. power production this year and in 2023, down from a 37% share in 2021.
Export-Import Bank plan may affect U.S. LNG, renewables -The board of the Export–Import Bank of the United States yesterday approved a new tool meant to support domestic export projects, opening financing options to facilities associated with liquefied natural gas, renewables and energy storage. The initiative will provide access to the agency’s “existing medium- and long-term loans and loan guarantees to American manufacturing projects that export,” according to a statement from the Ex-Im Bank, the nation’s official export credit agency.Advocacy groups for the U.S. LNG sector quickly welcomed the plan, saying it could help projects overcome funding challenges and support thousands of jobs. Environmentalists expressed concern that new LNG financing could take money away from renewable energy. The new tool will be available to all sectors, the Ex-Im Bank said, provided that projects meet environmental laws and other requirements. “The Make More in America Initiative will create new financing opportunities that spur manufacturing in the United States, support American jobs and boost America’s ability to compete with countries like China,” Reta Jo Lewis, the Ex-Im Bank’s president and chair, said in a statement yesterday. LNG has been in the spotlight in recent weeks as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupts global energy markets. The United States moved to ban oil, LNG and coal imports from Russia. European countries also are seeking to reduce their dependence on Russian energy. Observers have said Russia’s actions present a business opportunity for the U.S. gas industry. More than a dozen LNG projects have been federally approved but not yet built. That suggests the U.S. industry could roughly double its exports without a major regulatory approval (Energywire, March 9).The new bank initiative incentivizes applications in “environmentally beneficial, small business and transformational export transactions,” according to the Ex-Im Bank’s statement, which listed energy storage and renewable energy, in addition to semiconductors, biotech and biomedical products.While the Ex-Im Bank’s release didn’t specifically mention LNG, industry advocate LNG Allies said U.S. LNG export projects are “clearly” environmentally beneficial, saying they “mostly displace coal use in foreign power projects” or dirtier Russian gas. “U.S. LNG exports are both environmentally beneficial and transformational, two adjectives the release specifically uses to call out projects they would be supporting,” said Charlie Riedl, executive director of the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas, in an email.
USA Refinery Run Rate Very High for April - In this week’s preview of what to watch in oil and gas markets, Rigzone’s regular energy prognosticators take a look at the U.S. refinery run rate, Strategic Petroleum Reserve release destinations, growth in the context of pandemic recovery and more. Read on below to find out the specifics. Rigzone: What developments/trends will you be on the lookout for this week?
- Tom Seng, Director – School of Energy Economics, Policy and Commerce, University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business: The EU has proven too dependent on Russian oil and natural gas to initiate any boycotts at this time. The market will have to look to the additional, non-energy sanctions against Russia for any impact on resolving the Ukrainian crisis. U.S. refiners running at 92.5 percent is a very high level for April, a month normally reserved for maintenance and ‘turn-around’ ahead of the summer driving demand season. Will we see a significant reduction in capacity over the next 30-60 days? And, have the Western nations ‘pulled all the rabbits out of their hats’ in terms of increasing global oil supplies? It would seem so.
- Hillary Stevenson, Director, Industry Relations at oil and gas data firm Validere: Will be watching to see where U.S. SPR releases are headed. It is likely that some purchases will head to foreign destinations due to the cheaper waterborne transit, as the Jones Act would require U.S. flagged vessels to carry barrels to other U.S. ports. The DOE noted that any bid submitted in the SPR sale should not be ‘contingent’ on receiving a Jones Act waiver or vessel.
- John Stilwell, Principal-in-Charge, Energy – Power and Utilities, Grant Thornton LLP: Short- and long-term negative impacts to growth in the context of the pandemic recovery continues to be the theme. The widespread impact of the war in Ukraine will continue to be factor that the world will continue to monitor. The question is: Can the West remain united against Russia with the underlying stress to energy markets, supply chain and macroeconomic pressures?
U.S. crude output will rise at slower-than-expected pace, EIA says — U.S. crude output will grow at a more diminished pace than previously expected as shale producers grapple with higher production and labor costs amid rampant inflation. Production in 2022 is now expected to average 12.01 million barrels a day compared to the previous forecast of 12.03 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration. The revisions come as the Biden Administration struggles to contain surging inflation stoked by rising energy costs. Oil skyrocketed above $100 as the war in Ukraine has limited Russian crude exports into the global market while OPEC and its allies struggle to meet production targets. Meanwhile, many publicly traded oil producers in the U.S. have increased production at a more moderate pace compared with previous price booms as investors pressure them to boost returns. For 2023, the EIA expects production to rise by 940,000 barrels a day to average 12.95 million, compared to its previous forecast for a rise of 960,000 barrels a day. Oil demand is expected to rise 800,000 barrels a day to 20.58 million versus an increase of 870,000.
Shell's 13-year journey from discovery to first oil shows why U.S. output remains flat — Questioned by U.S. lawmakers this week, chief executives from the nation’s biggest oil companies took great pains to explain why they haven’t raised production fast enough to tame skyrocketing energy prices. For Shell Plc’s highest-ranking U.S. manager, Gretchen Watkins, the answer was 1,600 miles (2,600 kilometers) southwest of Capitol Hill, floating in a shipyard near Corpus Christi, Texas. As Democratic lawmakers grilled Watkins and other executives about high gasoline prices, hundreds of workers in red and tan coveralls were putting the finishing touches on the Vito offshore oil platform. The 20-story production facility that weighs as much as a battleship is expected to begin pumping the equivalent of up to 100,000 barrels daily from beneath the Gulf of Mexico later this year. By then, the multibillion-dollar project will have taken 13 years to evolve from the initial discovery of the Vito oilfield to production, underscoring the challenges of bringing offshore crude to market. Unlike shale wells that cost $10 million or $15 million to drill and mere months to yield oil, offshore projects cost billions and rarely come online in less than a decade. This difference in business models explains why it’s so difficult for oil giants such as Shell to quickly ramp up production when geopolitical disruptions like Russia’s war in Ukraine upend markets. With crude fetching more than $100 a barrel, and retail gasoline prices soaring, politicians and consumer advocates want to know why the oil industry isn’t pumping faster.
How Shell’s new Gulf platform will make money at almost any oil price - Shell’s new multibillion-dollar offshore oil platform is parked outside Corpus Christi for its finishing touches. The thwack of compressed air set a rhythm as workers readied the semi-submersible facility for launch offshore Louisiana in June. Slated to produce oil by year-end, the new platform aims to be among the world’s most efficient. It's part of a new wave of reinvented offshore platforms engineered to be smaller, less-energy intensive and more sustainable. Nicknamed Vito, the hub got its start in the years after the oil bust of 2014-16, as oil majors started devising ways to make pared down versions of platforms to reduce costs. Now that’s even more important as the energy transition accelerates and pressure mounts on producers to cut emissions.While Shell isn't revealing the project’s cost, the company said it has cut Vito’s cost by 70 percent from its initial design, helping it to remain profitable even if crude falls to near $35 a barrel. And though oil now hovers around $100, prices are unlikely to stay elevated, said Kurt Shallenberger, Shell’s project manager for Vito.“You don’t design for a single cycle,” he said, referring to the booms and busts of the market.Vito will operate in a 4,000-foot deep Gulf field some 150 miles southeast of New Orleans. Shell owns more than 63 percent of the project, set to produce 100,000 barrels of oil a day, while Norway-based Equinor owns the remaining 36.9 percent.
Baker's US Natural Gas Tally Rises as Drilling Activity Focused in Texas -The U.S. natural gas rig count rose two units to 143 for the week ended Thursday (April 14), matching a two-rig increase in oil-directed drilling for the period, the latest figures from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR) show. The combined U.S. rig count climbed to 693 for the week, up 254 units from its year-earlier total of 439. Land drilling increased by five rigs, partially offset by the departure of one rig from inland waters. The Gulf of Mexico count held steady at 12 rigs. [Want to know how global LNG demand impacts North American fundamentals? To find out, subscribe to LNG Insight.] Five directional rigs were added, with total vertical rigs declining by one, according to the BKR numbers, which are based in part on data from Enverus. In Canada, four oil-directed rigs and four natural gas-directed rigs exited during the week, dropping the Canadian count eight units to 103. That’s up from 56 in the year-earlier period. Broken down by major drilling region, the Eagle Ford Shale led with an increase of three rigs, raising its count to 60, versus 33 in the year-ago period. The Permian Basin added two rigs for the period, while the Barnett Shale and Cana Woodford each added one rig to their respective totals. Counting by state, Texas gained four rigs week/week, raising its total to 346. West Virginia added two rigs, offsetting a two-rig decline in Pennsylvania. Oklahoma and Alaska added one rig each, while Louisiana and New Mexico each dropped one rig week/week, the BKR data show.
Oil flowing from Permian on heels of COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine conflict - A crude oil pipeline shipping oil from the Permian Basin to export markets along the Gulf Coast reported last week it was moving about half a million barrels a day across Texas to the Corpus Christi area throughout 2022 so far. EPIC Crude Holdings first built the pipeline in 2017 to stretch 700 miles from the Permian Basin in southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the coast in southeast Texas. The 30-inch line extends from Orla, Texas in the Permian to the Port of Corpus Christi, serving operators in the Permian’s Delaware and Midland sub-basins and the Eagle Ford Basin in southern Texas. The pipeline has a capacity of 600,000 barrels per day, and storage of 7.5 million barrels throughout its network of terminals throughout Texas in Orla, Pecos, Crane, Wink, Midland, Hobson and Gardendale. EPIC Chief Executive Officer Brian Freed said the system was intended and continue to take advantage of heavy ongoing growth in Permian Basin oil production. "Our crude volume throughput proves EPIC’s strategic importance for customers to provide safe and reliable crude oil transport out of the Delaware, Midland and Eagle Ford basins into the Corpus Christi market,” Freed said. Along with shipping large quantities of fossil fuels to market in recent months, the Permian was also the site of billions of dollars in land and asset sales this year, as energy companies sought to capitalize on growing fuel demands via expansive oil and gas deposits in the region. The latest was a $624 million sale of a Permian-focused subsidiary of Denver-based midstream company 3Bear Energy to Delek Logistics of Tennessee. Included in the sale were all of 3Bear’s assets in the region which include about 350,000 acres, 485 miles of pipelines, 88 million cubic feet per day of natural gas processing capacity, 120,000 barrels of crude oil storage capacity and 200,000 barrels per day of water disposal.
Record Permian Well Drilling Permits Point to Growing U.S. Oil Supply -— Drilling permits for new wells have spiked to unprecedented levels in the Permian Basin, signaling crude oil suppliers in America are finally responding to higher prices, according to Rystad Energy. A total of 904 horizontal drilling permits were awarded last month in the shale patch that lies beneath Texas and New Mexico, an all-time-high, Rystad said. The four-week average of 210 approved permits for the week ending April 3 was also a record. “This is a clear signal that operators in the basin are kicking into high gear on their development plans, positioning for a significant ramp-up of activity level,” Artem Abramov, Rystad Energy’s head of shale research, said in a note to clients. The move “foreshadows a significant increase in supply capacity from early 2023,” he added. The world is counting on the U.S. to increase crude production after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted supplies and sent oil prices rallying. Texas wildcatters have been saying that higher costs on labor and equipment and investors’ pressure to keep spending under control limits their ability to expand production.
As Oil Giants Turn to Bitcoin Mining, Some Spin Burning Fossil Fuels for Cryptocurrency as a Climate Solution -Flaring — or the burning of stranded natural gas directly at an oil well — is one of the drilling industry’s most notorious problems, often condemned as a pointlessly polluting waste of billions of dollars and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas.In early March, oil giant ExxonMobil signed up to meet the World Bank’s “zero routine flaring by 2030” goal (a plan that — when you look just a bit closer — doesn’t entirely eliminate flaring but instead reduces “absolute flaring and methane emissions” by 60 to 70 percent.)How does ExxonMobil plan to reach that goal? In part, it turns out, by burning stranded natural gas directly at its oil wells — not in towering flares, but down in mobile cryptocurrency mines.Using the energy-intensive process of crypto mining to fight pollution is the latest in a wave of claimed climate “solutions” whose environmental benefits seem to only appear if you squint at them from very specific angles — like “low carbon” oil, measured not by the oil’s actual carbon content but by how much more carbon was spent to obtain it.Critics point out that replacing flaring with mining crypto could become a way for fossil fuel producers to spin money directly from energy, polluting the climate without heating people’s homes or transporting people from place to place in the process. “In terms of productive value, I would say there is none,” Jacob Silverman, a staff writer at the New Republic, said in a recent interview. “The main value of cryptocurrency is as a tool for speculation. People are trying to get rich.”That, of course, includes oil drillers. “This is the best gift the oil and gas industry could’ve gotten,” Adam Ortolf, a crypto mining executive, told CNBC. “They were leaving a lot of hydrocarbons on the table, but now, they’re no longer limited by geography to sell energy.” Using crypto mining to sponge up unused natural gas could carry environmental benefits, for example, if you compare that option against flaring that gas and using other supplies of natural gas to mine that same crypto. But, in reality, there are a lot of other moving pieces at play, including calls for cryptocurrency to start lowering its energy demand.Bitcoin, in fact, has grown so energy intensive that tech industry insiders have begun openly discussing the ways that it’s causing a “climate crisis.”“A single ledger in bitcoin consumes enough energy to power your house for almost a day,” Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger told Bloomberg in mid-February. “That’s a climate crisis.”“If we produce a technology that consumes that much energy,” he added, “wow, that’s not okay.”Meanwhile, oil giants like Exxon have begun increasingly eying cryptocurrency mining — which could directly connect the world’s biggest producers of fossil fuels to an industry with an ever-expanding appetite for energy. A pilot project in North Dakota’s Bakken shale has already allowed ExxonMobil to steer up to 18 million cubic feet of gas a month into bitcoin mining ventures in 2021, Bloomberg reported last week, adding that the oil giant is considering expanding cryptocurrency mining pilots into Alaska, Germany, the Qua Iboe Terminal in Nigeria, the Vaca Muerta shale in Argentina, and Guyana — a small South American country that ExxonMobil pushed into the ranks of the top ten gas-flaring countries in 2020. AnExxon is hardly alone. ConocoPhillips has also launched a Bakken shale pilot program. The two are founding members of the OOC Oil & Gas Blockchain Consortium, whose members also include Chevron, Equinor, Hess, Pioneer, and others. Russia also recently announced that it would accept bitcoin as payment for fossil fuels and crypto mining companies have described talks with officials from Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers.
Texas shale oil fields face worst fire risk in almost a decade — Some of the worst fire conditions in a decade are going to sweep across Texas and the southern Great Plains, threatening key shale-oil fields, slaughterhouses and farms. Dry gusting winds and low humidity will create extreme fire weather from Kansas to West Texas, including Midland and Odessa, the U.S. Storm Prediction Center said. “This is one of the higher- end fire weather patterns we have seen in the last decade or so,” said Nick Nauslar, a government fire weather forecaster. Tuesday “is going to be a big day.” “ The central Plains and the western U.S. have been suffering from drought for months, leaving wheat crops parched of no rain. Ranchers may not have enough feed for their livestock. Almost 85% of Texas is in drought and more than 75% of Oklahoma is parched, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. With grasses dried out and ready to burn, the warm dry winds could catch any flames in the area and send them spreading wildly. “It is a pretty good recipe for big fires and critical fire weather conditions,” Nauslar said. A powerful early spring storm is raking the southern U.S. with dry gusting winds, while dropping heavy snow. Blizzards across Montana may bring as much as 23 inches (58 centimeters) of snow. Red flag fire warnings cover parts of seven states from Arizona to Nebraska. In addition to the fire risks and snow by the foot, the storm could also touch off severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and damaging hail. This causes billions of dollars in damages each year from Minnesota to Louisiana.
Fire Conditions Put Kansas to West Texas at Risk - Some of the worst fire conditions in a decade are going to sweep across Texas and the southern Great Plains, threatening key shale-oil fields, slaughterhouses and farms. Dry gusting winds and low humidity will create extreme fire weather from Kansas to West Texas, including Midland and Odessa, the U.S. Storm Prediction Center said. “This is one of the higher- end fire weather patterns we have seen in the last decade or so,” said Nick Nauslar, a government fire weather forecaster. Tuesday “is going to be a big day.” 2:06am CDT #SPC Day1 #FireWX Extremely Critical: parts of west texas and oklahoma into kansas. https://t.co/OIGmMBh3Nz pic.twitter.com/3WuneEgoof — NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) April 12, 2022 The central Plains and the western U.S. have been suffering from drought for months, leaving wheat crops parched of no rain. Ranchers may not have enough feed for their livestock. Almost 85% of Texas is in drought and more than 75% of Oklahoma is parched, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. With grasses dried out and ready to burn, the warm dry winds could catch any flames in the area and send them spreading wildly. “It is a pretty good recipe for big fires and critical fire weather conditions,” Nauslar said. A powerful early spring storm is raking the southern U.S. with dry gusting winds, while dropping heavy snow. Blizzards across Montana may bring as much as 23 inches (58 centimeters) of snow. Red flag fire warnings cover parts of seven states from Arizona to Nebraska. In addition to the fire risks and snow by the foot, the storm could also touch off severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and damaging hail. This causes billions of dollars in damages each year from Minnesota to Louisiana.
Abandoned oil and gas wells spread out through New Mexico's Permian, San Juan basins - When oil and gas wells are shut down and abandoned, dangers to local communities and the environment linger. Both of New Mexico’s oil-producing regions: the Permian Basin in the southeast and San Juan Basin in the northwest have scores of inactive wells, per a recent study by the New Mexico Wilderness Alliance, and could be running afoul of state law. The Albuquerque-based environmental group, citing its own data on alleged inactive wells, called on the federal Bureau of Land Management to audit inactive oil and gas wells on federally-leased public land. The group hoped the audit would show if the wells identified in the Alliance’s study were in compliance, or not, with regulations. About 6,000 wells across the state were identified as not having produced oil or gas in the last year, per the study, including 2,600 on federal land. The study pointed to 100 wells it said hadn’t produced in 15 years. “Orphaned” wells with no active owner on file, wells that have expired approvals for temporary abandonment, and others with abandonment authorizations were listed in the study. In the Permian, the wells in question were scattered throughout Eddy, Lea and Chaves counties. In total, there were 68 orphaned wells and 16 wells with expired abandonment approvals, per the study. There were also 124 oil and gas leases provided to companies, accounting for 55,792 acres, in the area the study alleged were in violation of abandonment regulations at other facilities in the region.
A Hollow Boom for New Mexico -Our weak president threatens both America’s honor and freedom itself by pandering to dictators, limp Europeans and climate hoaxers in his drive to destroy the oil and gas industry with high gas prices. He and other politicians need to get out of the way of American oil and gas companies so they can get to work and drill, drill, drill us to energy independence.At least, that’s what some politicians and lobbying groups are saying. But numbers more complex than the gas station bottom line tell a decidedly different story, one corroborated by economists both in New Mexico and farther afield — and by oil and gas producers themselves.Producers have thousands of unused federal drilling permits — 1,040 in New Mexico alone. There are so many that President Joe Biden has threatened fines for not using them. Drilling rig counts haven’t followed increases in prices. Oilfield jobs in New Mexico are still down more than 20% since the COVID-19-triggered market collapse in March 2020. And perhaps most telling, in a survey of oil and gas producers conducted by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank a month after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the majority of producers said they had no plans to dramatically increase production in the next year.Oil and gas demand shot up in recent months for myriad reasons: Countries around the world have left COVID-19 lockdowns; those people are buying more stuff; companies have begun hiring as lockdowns end; OPEC hasn’t increased production as expected; and, yes, Russia started an unprovoked war in Ukraine, triggering widespread boycotts of Russian fuels and roiling international markets.Despite all of these triggers, in the U.S. — and particularly in New Mexico — oil and gas production hasn’t increased at the same pace as demand. Neither has oilfield hiring. And neither has the drill count. That leads to high prices for everything from gas to guavas — or anything else that needs to be transported — and that means turbulent financial markets and big profits for oil and gas companies. “They’ve done fairly well for themselves, let’s just say,” “There’s a lot more oil in the ground at $100 a barrel than there is at $10.” In other words, if oil prices go up, production will follow, as it becomes economically feasible to drill expensive, hard-to-reach deposits. It’s conventional wisdom that has held true for most of the past 50 years. But that isn’t happening with the current boom. In fact, oil production in New Mexico has leveled off as gas prices — and prices of everything else — have risen over the past six months. “Going back 150 years … there have been very few time periods where we’ve had stable oil prices.”
Rudolph, Arizona residents beat back SRP — Homeowners of a small Arizona town are celebrating a monumental victory Tuesday against the state’s second largest power company.The Arizona Corporation Commission voted 4-1 to reject a proposal by Salt River Project (SRP) to expand a gas power plant just outside the community of Randolph.The small, rural town sits about 60 miles southeast of Phoenix. Black farmworkers, denied opportunities to own land in existing cities, founded the community in the 1920s.As described by NBC News, the unincorporated community is economically depressed and prone to noise and pollution.About two dozen Randolph residents stood alongside environmental advocates Tuesday outside the Arizona Corporation Commission Phoenix facility to ask regulators to deny the proposed expansion of an SRP gas power plant on the outskirts of town.“It is a very inhumane act to allow 28 turbines to operate in our community,” said Mary Turner, a Randolph resident.Randolph homeowners argued that expanding the natural gas plant would only worsen existing problems.“The current system in place has failed the community of Randolph. Many residents have fled their homes for days to avoid vapors, odors, particulates,” said resident Jeff Jordan.During Tuesday’s hearing, commissioners voted 4-1 in favor of the town of Randolph.“I do not believe it is wise to put further pressure on this community to relocate. Their history is important,” said Commissioner Anna Tovar. ACC Commissioner Sandra Kennedy argued SRP rushed the planning process and did not collaborate enough with the Randolph community. SRP’s board approved the expansion in September of last year.
Biden admin restarts oil leases on federal land - The Biden administration announced today it will resume oil and gas leasing on federal lands under a revised program that includes a royalty rate hike to 18.75 percent.On Monday, the Bureau of Land Management will issue final environmental assessments and lease sale notices on 173 parcels covering 144,000 acres. The sales will incorporate many of the recommended reforms outlined in a November 2021 federal report, including analyzing the estimated greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change and an increased royalty rate “to ensure fair return for the American taxpayer,” the Interior Department said.Interior said the reformed review process included “tribal consultation and broad community input” and resulted in whittling down the leasing area by 80 percent. “How we manage our public lands and waters says everything about what we value as a nation. For too long, the federal oil and gas leasing programs have prioritized the wants of extractive industries above local communities, the natural environment, the impact on our air and water, the needs of Tribal Nations, and, moreover, other uses of our shared public lands,” said Secretary Deb Haaland in a statement. “Today, we begin to reset how and what we consider to be the highest and best use of Americans’ resources for the benefit of all current and future generations.”President Joe Biden froze new oil and gas leasing shortly after taking office in January 2021. A federal judge overturned that moratorium last year, and Interior in 2021 conducted the first sale of the Biden era in the Gulf of Mexico (Energywire, June 16, 2021).The November report on the federal oil program called for an update to a royalty minimum set in 1920, as well as potentially new fees and tougher bonds. The minimum royalty rate is currently set at 12.5 percent (Energywire, Feb. 1).The White House has proposed a rulemaking for the federal leasing program, including a look at royalties, fees and bonding.The planned oil and gas lease sales announcement angered environmentalists, who blasted the Biden administration for not taking adequate action to address climate change.“The Biden administration’s claim that it must hold these lease sales is pure fiction and a reckless failure of climate leadership,” Randi Spivak, public lands director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement.The leasing plan did not impress the oil and gas industry. “While we’re glad to see BLM is finally going to announce a sale, the extreme reduction of acreage by 80 percent, after a year and a quarter without a single sale, is unwarranted and does nothing to show that the administration takes high energy prices seriously,” said Kathleen Sgamma, president of the Denver-based Western Energy Alliance.
U.S. Upstream M&A Going Strong With $14Bn In First Quarter Of 2022 - As the U.S. M&A market marched into the new year, $14 billion in deals were announced during the first quarter of 2022, Enverus, an energy data analytics company, said. The $6 billion transacted in January 2022 was the strongest M&A market launch in five years. However, the last significant transaction occurred in early March before a spike in commodity prices temporarily halted the activity. “All the factors that kept upstream deals resilient in 2021 carried over into the new year,” said Andrew Dittmar, director at Enverus. “That included a need for inventory by public companies, ready private sellers, and favorable pricing. However, the volatility in energy prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stalled nearly all deals in March.” Overall, deals were most active in the Rockies region – more than 50 percent of the total first quarter of 2022 value-driven, particularly by buyer interest in North Dakota’s Williston Basin and Colorado’s DJ Basin. The always consistent Permian Basin captured a bit under 30 percent of deal value and one big deal in the Marcellus drove the roughly 20 percent of value allocated to the Eastern region. A lack of deals in the previously active Haynesville and a continued slow pace in the Eagle Ford meant transactions in Ark-La-Tex and the Gulf Coast were sparse. Private company exits remained a primary theme accounting for four of the five largest deals of the quarter. Chesapeake continued its buildout of core gas-focused inventory in the northeast Marcellus by acquiring private Chief Oil & Gas and associated Tug Hill interests in a $2.6 billion transaction. While that deal was more focused on building inventory runway and Chesapeake was willing to pay for it, other buyers like Earthstone Energy in the Midland Basin and PDC Energy in the DJ Basin sought acquisitions that could be purchased solely for the value of existing production while still adding future drilling locations.
Manchin floats ‘rebranded’ Keystone XL pipeline in visit to Canada -Swing vote Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) floated the idea of a “rebranded” or “rerouted” Keystone XL pipeline during a visit to Canada on Tuesday. “The brand of the XL pipeline is probably gone,” Manchin told reporters when asked about the chances of a revival of the never-completed vessel. “Can it be rebranded, can it be rerouted, can it be these different things?”He added that it’s not clear whether the Biden administration “is going to entertain that” but added that “they’d be foolish not to.”During his first day in office, President Biden killed a key border-crossing permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have transported Canadian tar sands oil to the U.S. In the years prior, the vessel had become a flashpoint in the environmental movement, as advocates raised concerns about the carbon intensity of the tar sands oil it would deliver, as well as tribal opposition. Proponents, meanwhile, have invoked energy security and construction jobs. Manchin’s latest comments also follow a Wall Street Journal report which said that the administration was looking for ways to import more Canadian oil after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove up fuel prices. Republicans, meanwhile, have ramped up their criticisms of the Keystone decision in recent weeks amid the high prices, even though the pipeline was only about 8 percent completed upon its cancellation last year.The company behind the pipeline, TC Energy, said in 2020 that the vessel would not have delivered oil until 2023.In the meantime, the U.S. has continued to import a significant amount of Canadian oil — which makes up more than half of the country’s oil imports.
Oil Worker Shortage Hits Canada --There is a shortage of oil and gas workers in Canada, according to the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC). “After years of sector instability and a recession, many workers pivoted to careers outside the oil and gas industry,” a CAOEC spokesperson told Rigzone. “In some cases, workers moved back home to other jurisdictions such as central Canada and Eastern Canada,” the spokesperson added. When asked about a solution to the problem, the CAOEC representative said Canadians “need to hear our good news story and ESG achievements”. “Signals of long-term recovery and positive messaging from leaders would help potential workers understand the many options and career prospects available in Canada’s energy sector,” the spokesperson added. According to a release in August 2021 by Statistics Canada, the country’s statistical office, the Canadian oil and gas industry employed over 72,800 workers in 2019. This was said to be down from approximately 89,600 workers in 2012, “when jobs in the industry peaked”. Last month, Hunter Kornfeind, the leader of Rapidan Energy Group’s U.S. crude production forecasting and analysis, noted that labor availability was tight and in short supply following the downturn due to Covid and said the U.S. oil and gas industry was not immune from those macro challenges. “The shortage is likely primarily due to workers not returning to the industry following the recession and crash in crude prices in 2020,” Kornfeind told Rigzone back in March. According to the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association’s latest state of energy report, which was published in February, the U.S. oil and gas industry supported a total of 832,869 direct jobs in 2021. This figure was said to represent a net decline of 55,214 direct jobs compared to 2020.
Quebec passes law banning oil and gas production -- Questerre is sitting on an estimated Utica shale gas resource of some 6 trillion ft3 in Quebec's St Lawrence Lowlands. The government of Quebec passed Bill 21 on April 12, effectively banning oil and gas production in the eastern Canadian province and agreeing to provide C$100mn (US$79.5mn) in compensation to the industry, much less than the C$500mn requested.“We are incredibly disappointed that the government of Quebec has chosen to proceed with this legislation,” Questerre Energy CEO Michael Binnion said April 14. “By blocking the development of its natural gas resources with zero-emissions technology for export, Quebec is missing an important opportunity to work with other nations to provide secure, reliable energy for our European allies.”Quebec premier Francois Legault promised last year to ban oil and gas production in the province and followed through in February, when Bill 21 was tabled in the National Assembly.Questerre is sitting on an estimated Utica shale gas resource of some 6 trillion ft3 in Quebec’s St Lawrence Lowlands. That resource is now effectively stranded. Denying Questerre and other companies the opportunity to develop Quebec’s natural resources, Binnion said, leaves the province “highly dependent” on imported natural gas, oil and petroleum products. And it does nothing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Quebec or elsewhere.Bill 21 was passed by the National Assembly, and has received royal assent from the province’s lieutenant governor. It will come into force, in whole in part, at the government’s discretion following the finalisation of associated regulations, including the proposed compensation programme.“As we wait for Bill 21 to come into force, we will be assessing our legal options to preserve the rights of our shareholders,” Binnion said.
Extinction Rebellion Occupies Shell Headquarters In London - Environmental group Extinction Rebellion (XR) has occupied the London headquarters of oil supermajor Shell to demand a meeting with CEO Ben Van Beurden. Namely, three people have glued themselves to the reception desk and others are glued to the entrances outside. Outside the building, around one hundred people – members of XR’s whistleblowing platform TruthTeller – used placards with the name of an individual Shell employee and the words “Please Join Us.” This was an invite to Shell’s employees to share insider information about the company’s planet-damaging activities. Another group positioned a fireman’s trampoline below the office windows bearing the message: “Jump Ship.” TruthTeller also handed out flyers to Shell employees inviting them to join Extinction Rebellion, while there’s still time with a message to “switch to the right side of history before Shell turns toxic on your CV.” The flyer also invited staff to speak up and raise issues with corporate policy and behavior with colleagues and management, post-XR material on internal notice boards and common spaces, or anonymously share details about any of Shell’s climate-damaging plans via its online secure whistleblowing platform. A ‘nice touch’ so to speak was XR offering to fund several career coaching sessions for staff thinking of leaving Shell and moving to companies specializing in renewables. “As everyone knows, the fossil fuel industry’s social license is fast expiring. In a few short years, it will make the tobacco industry seem like an ethical choice. We’re here to help employees at Shell and all planet-damaging companies to either speak up internally, share insider information via TruthTeller, or jump ship – before it’s too late,” Zoe Blackler, coordinator of XR’s TruthTeller said.
‘There is nothing else out there’: why Europe is hooked on Russian gas -As outrage over the war in Ukraine grows, European leaders are under mounting pressure to expand sanctions against Russia and end the EU’s decades-long dependence on the country’s oil and gas once and for all. But an analysis of the top 10 global producers shows just how difficult it would be to remove Russian gas from the European energy mix without imposing stringent curbs on industrial consumption that could crush economic growth.The EU imports about 30 per cent of its oil and 40 per cent of its gas from Russia, paying Moscow roughly $850mn a day at current prices to keep the hydrocarbons flowing. Weaning Europe off Russian oil would be challenging. Getting rid of Russian gas would be harder. Gazprom, Russia’s biggest gas producer and monopoly exporter, towers over the global gas market. It produced 540bn cubic metres last year, more than BP, Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco combined, according to data from consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Of that, 331bn cubic metres were consumed in Russia and 168bn were piped to Europe. Giles Farrer, head of gas research at Wood Mackenzie, said replacing that volume would be “impossible” since production at most gas projects around the world was already running at close to maximum levels. “There is nothing else out there.” Unlike in the oil industry, where big producers such as Saudi Arabia have historically held back additional capacity to help balance the market in the event of a disruption to global supplies, the gas industry has tended to operate at or close to capacity. Gas is also less fungible than oil, since moving it from the point of production to the point of consumption requires a pipeline or liquefaction facility and therefore a bigger upfront investment, said Farrer. As a result, countries with significant gas reserves, such as Russia, have tended to develop large domestic markets before building export capacity. The Iranian national oil company, the largest gas producer after Gazprom, produced 291bn cubic metres in 2021. But 280bn of that was consumed in Iran, according to Wood Mackenzie’s data. The easing of sanctions on Iran in the event of a nuclear deal could reopen the possibility of broader international access to Iranian gas but would require new export facilities, which would take years to build. Other than Russia, the only suppliers of piped gas to Europe are Norway, Azerbaijan, Libya and Algeria, where state-owned Sonatrach sent 34bn cubic metres via pipelines to Spain and Italy last year. Algeria could increase that supply if it can resolve a diplomatic spat with Morocco that has blocked one of its routes to Spain since November, but it would first need to boost production and satisfy growing domestic demand, “If they can produce the gas and if it’s not consumed domestically in Algeria, there is spare export capacity,” “The trouble is bringing on the upstream in Algeria quickly.”
Climate questions mount as U.S. rushes LNG to Europe - — The promise and peril of America’s natural gas boom is readily apparent near the mouth of the Sabine River, where refinery stacks and lumbering gas tankers tower over a coastal plain of sweeping marshes pocked by hurricane damage. This ribbon of water, which separates Texas from Louisiana, is the beating heart of the U.S. liquefied natural gas industry. Last week, two tankers the length of three football fields were docked at a terminal on the Louisiana bank. One, bound for Poland, is capable of carrying enough gas to meet the country’s demand for an entire day. The other, recently returned from Asia, could fuel New York state for more than 24 hours. Two miles up river, on the Texas shore, a thicket of roughly 40 cranes marked the location where 4,000 workers were busy building a new $10 billion export terminal. Nearby, road crews were rerouting Texas Highway 87 to clear space for a third facility in development. The U.S. LNG industry has grown rapidly since the country shipped its first cargo in 2016. In December, America edged out Qatar to become the top LNG exporter in the world. Now, with Russia waging war in Ukraine and Asia’s growing economies hungry for energy, the world is demanding even more American LNG. President Joe Biden has promised to send more American shipments to Europe, as part of an E.U. effort to slash Russian gas imports to the continent by two-thirds. “When I was in office, we often talked about the importance of energy security, and its relation to national security,” said Dan Brouillette, who served as Energy secretary in the Trump administration and now leads Sempra Infrastructure, which operates one LNG terminal in Louisiana and is developing a second along the Sabine. “So to the extent that we can deepen ties with our European allies, with our Asian allies around energy, it’s good for them, it’s good for us and, I think, frankly, it’s good for the world.” Asia long has served as the top destination for American LNG, but recent months have seen U.S. shipments rerouted to Europe en masse. American LNG exports to Europe surged to 13.2 million metric tons during the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 143 percent over the same time period last year, according to Rystad Energy. But boosting U.S. shipments even more will be no easy task. The seven existing LNG export terminals today are almost maxed out. It is also unclear how long Asian customers will continue to forgo U.S. shipments. Asian buyers hold many of the long-term supply contracts with American exporters but recently have elected to send cargoes to Europe, where they can fetch a higher price (Climatewire, April 1). New export capacity, meanwhile, remains years away. Golden Pass, the $10 billion project being built here, is the only new terminal in advanced construction. About a dozen expansions and new projects have received federal permits but have yet to secure financing.
5 things to know about liquefied natural gas and its role in the Ukraine crisis --The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put a spotlight on the production and trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a key part of Russia’s energy leverage in Europe. Before the invasion, Russia was Europe’s third largest supplier of LNG after the U.S. and Qatar, accounting for 20 percent of imports, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In March, following the invasion, the Biden administration announced a deal to increase LNG exports to the EU to cover about one-third of imports from Russia. The U.S. already led in LNG exports to Europe in 2021, providing 26 percent of its imports. The U.S. export of these resources to Europe were on the rise even before the Russian invasion. They saw an increase of 3.4 billion to 6.5 billion cubic feet a day between November 2021 and January 2022. Russia is “a fairly new player” in the LNG industry, Cahill said, but already has two major projects. The first, the Yamal LNG project, is set to carry 16.5 million metric tons of LNG from the port of Sabetta on Russia’s Yamal Peninsula. The second, Arctic LNG 2, was set to launch in 2023 with a projected production capacity of nearly 20 million metric tons. However, a number of international investors pulled out of the project after Russia invaded Ukraine, including the government of Italy, which froze its share of the financing. Japan and France followed suit shortly afterward. Despite the U.S. stepping up LNG imports to Europe, experts said at a certain point there’s not much more that can be done on the supply side. “The United States is exporting every molecule of natural gas we possibly can,” Samantha Gross, director of the Brookings Institution’s Energy Security and Climate Initiative, told The Hill. “Our LNG facilities that we have are going full out … not because any politician told them to but because high prices encourage that.” The administration’s vow to increase exports to Europe, she said, may run up against the fact that “producers are producing everything they can and selling it to the market where they have contracts in the market where they’re getting the best price,” she said. As a result, she said, to meet commitments to increase supply to Europe, there may “have to be some arm-twisting, and maybe encouraging buyers and other countries should reduce their demand,” she said. “There’s not a ton of extra LNG capacity just sitting there waiting to supply Europe.” With a finite supply of American LNG to export, some of the extra sent to Europe will be diverted from Asia. “If you have a cold winter next year in Northeast Asia, places like China, Japan and South Korea, the gas demand will be strong and those LNG cargoes will be needed there,” Cahill said. Many of the buyers in Asia have long-term contracts that allow diversion to other markets. However, “if the buyers need those [imports], they’re going to stay in Asia, and to bid them away from Asia towards Europe, they’ll need very high prices,” Cahill said. Advocates for renewable energy have called the Ukraine crisis, and the corresponding spike in gas prices, a further incentive to transition off of fossil fuels. However, many of them have been dissatisfied with the emphasis on natural gas, which is predominantly methane, one of the most damaging greenhouse gases. Methane is about 25 times more effective at trapping heat in earth’s atmosphere as carbon dioxide, and many advocates have pointed to cutting methane as a quicker way to reduce emissions.
The European Union Demand Response to High Natural Gas Prices - European gas markets are in turmoil. Supplies from Russia in the first quarter of 2022 (289 terawatt hours) were 30% lower than the same period of 2021 (408 TWh). Policymakers in both Russia and the European Union are discussing the possibility of a complete stop to Russian gas flows to the EU. Markets are extremely nervous, resulting in a six-fold gas price increase in the first quarter of 2022 compared to one year earlier (Figure 1).High EU gas prices (and benign global market conditions) saw the EU import 305 TWh of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 170 TWh a year previously (see tracker). But high prices have not only lured new gas supply into Europe. They have also encouraged consumers to reduce gas demand significantly. We estimate a 7% drop in Q1 2022 compared to Q1 2021 (1402 TWh versus 1507 TWh; see Annex 1). This can only partly be explained by milder weather.Anecdotal evidence suggests high prices have led industrial companies to reduce natural gas consumption, but it is not clear by how much. National and sectoral natural gas demand data is not made available in a timely manner, and we can offer only partial evidence (see below) suggesting EU industrial gas demand has fallen by around a fifth.Gas-to-coal switching in the EU power sector has not contributed to reduced demand as gas-fired generation was actually up by 4TWh in Q1 2022 compared to 2021, because of lower nuclear and hydro production (Figure 2).This implies that household and other gas demand (including services and non-individual household heat generation) in Q1 2022 was about 5% lower than one year previously (Figure 3). If the goal is to replace Russian gas entirely, this is a promising start, as Russia invaded Ukraine near the end of the first quarter of 2022 and so far, the EU and its members have not introduced strong energy-saving policies. On the contrary, national policies in response to rising energy prices have focussed on cutting taxes, boosting demand. We showed previously that with stronger policies, savings of roughly 20% of total demand could be achieved. Our industrial reduction estimate is based on data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) (Figure 4, Annex 2). This shows in Q1 2022, weekly industrial demand for natural gas in Italy was 0.25TWh/week below 2021 levels; in Belgium, it was 0.3 TWh/week lower; in Luxembourg 0.1 TWh/week lower; and in the Netherlands 1.3 TWh/week lower. In total, these demand reductions suggest a 20% drop compared to 2021 levels. As industrial demand comprises 25% of EU total demand, a 20% annual reduction in industry demand across all countries would result in a 5% reduction in total gas demand. Data available for the UK show a weekly drop of 0.35 TWh/week. A shift in trade flows further highlights declining demand from EU industry for natural gas over the past few months. One of the factors in decreasing EU industrial gas consumption is that energy-intensive products are exported less and/or imported more when natural gas and electricity prices are high (Figure 5). Natural gas is the key input for production of chemicals and ammonia. In December 2021, EU ammonia imports amounted to €250 million compared to €96 million in June 2021 (Figure 3). Some of this effect is driven by prices but not all. We estimate a 27% increase in ammonia imports in December compared to June. Imports of aluminium, for which electricity is a key input to production, have also responded to high power prices. In December 2021, EU aluminium imports were worth €2 billion, while in December 2020 they were €1.2 billion. Accounting for price effects, we estimate a 35% increase in physical imports. Iron and steel imports grew throughout the second half of 2021, and were approximately €2 billion higher in October compared to June, but in November they dropped off.
Europe turns to Middle East, Mediterranean to reduce its dependence on Russian gas – As the war in Ukraine rages on, leaders of European countries, notably Germany, have come to realize that they made a serious mistake by becoming so dependent on Russian energy. Currently, Europe depends on Russia for roughly 40 percent of its natural gas needs, and European leaders have vowed to reduce their dependence by two-thirds. So, European countries are feverishly trying to secure supplies from the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Energy security has become one of Europe’s top priorities, putting on the back burner the fight to contain climate change and global warming. Of course, the gas and oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members were the first countries which European leaders requested to cover the energy shortfall to be created by a future removal of Russian gas and oil from the scene. However, GCC countries say that they are unable to significantly increase their hydrocarbon exports to Europe, due to production constraints and the fact that most of their future production is locked in long-term contracts with their clients in Asia. In the past few weeks, Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom sent senior representatives to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are major hydrocarbon producers, asking them to increase energy supplies, but their requests fell on deaf ears. Qatar was the only country that offered some help when it diverted to Britain and Belgium six LNG tankers that were originally destined for Asia and indicated that it would increase its gas production to cover part of the shortage. The emirate of Qatar currently supplies about 30 per cent of its liquefied gas to the European Union, but none of this goes to Germany, because it does not have LNG terminals. To correct this situation, Germany is fast-tracking the construction of two LNG terminals, but these will become operational in three years’ time.
OMV Petrom ceased importing Russian crude oil --OMV Petrom, the largest energy company in Romania, no longer buys crude oil from Russia for consumption at the Romanian refinery, company officials officials told Economica.net. Even if it is going to be more expensive, OMV Petrom will seek to buy crude oil from other sources. By its decision, OMV Petrom follows a trend of an informal ban on Russian oil that will probably soon become formal in Europe - after such a ban was enacted in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. While sanctions on Russian natural gas are unlikely at this point because of the economic damage they would cause, Europe could better withstand an embargo on Russian oil. "We have chosen not to process crude oil from Russia. We bring non-Russian crude oil, it may originate from ex-Soviet republics - but not Russia. We also look to North or West Africa [for oil supplies]. We also have the offer of crude oil from Kazakhstan on the table. But all purchases are made through our London office (OMV Trading), which looks at all options for purchases," said Radu Căprău, a member of Petrom's management responsible for refining and marketing. "Russian oil would have been delivered at a discount, but we are not buying. It is our way of sanctioning Russia. It was our decision and that of the OMV group, they are going in the same direction as well," the official explained.
Asian LNG prices dip as European gas maintains premium --Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell this week as China imposed COVID-19 lockdowns, while European gas prices rose, maintaining their premium to attract cargoes to the region amid risks of Russian gas supply cuts. The average LNG price for May delivery into north-east Asia was estimated at around $33.00 per metric million British thermal units (mmBtu), down $2.00 from the previous week, industry sources said. The May Dutch gas price at the TTF hub, the European gas benchmark, is around $34.50/mmBtu, still at a premium to Asian spot LNG to attract cargoes. The European gas market remains concerned that flows of Russian gas, which accounts for some 40% of its supplies, could stop later this month amid a stand-off over a demand for payment in roubles and worries over possible sanctions. Europe continues to dominate U.S. LNG exports, which rose nearly 16% last month to a record high, according to preliminary Refinitiv data. Europe last month took about 65% of U.S. exports, with about 12% going to Asia. Analysts said more U.S. LNG exports are needed, with European inventories about a quarter full, below the five-year average of about 34% for this time of year. With U.S. LNG plants producing LNG at full capacity, most of the additional gas going to Europe would have to come from exports intended for other parts of the world, analysts said. Two U.S. companies have said they will add production capacity. New Fortress Energy Inc proposes to build an offshore LNG export project, while Sempra Energy has agreed to increase the capacity of its Cameron LNG Phase 2 project. In Asia, China’s spot LNG import quotes were pegged at $30.44/mmBtu for May arrivals, compared to $35.13/mmBtu a week earlier, according to the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange. Chinese authorities on Tuesday extended a lockdown in Shanghai to cover all of the financial centre’s 26 million people. Japan has delayed the restart of a 870 megawatt nuclear reactor which was supposed to come back online on May 22, and some other outages have been prolonged, analysts said. “Japanese utilities also seem to have significantly lower storage inventories at the end of March compared to last year,” Stocks would have to increase by up to 800,000 tonnes in the next three months to reach the same level as June 2021, he added. “Japan’s LNG demand is looking higher than previously thought, which will come at the expense of gas availability to other parts of the world. Japan also said on Friday it would ban coal imports from Russia in a broad escalation of sanctions, which could lead to more LNG buying.
Ukraine calls on commodity traders to stop handling Russian oil -- The Ukrainian government has called on some of the world’s largest energy traders to stop handling Russian crude, of which the companies have discharged more than 20mn barrels since the outbreak of war. Vitol, Trafigura, Glencore and Gunvor have continued to lift large volumes of Russian crude and products including diesel, according to ship tracking and port data. Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, wrote to the four companies at the end of March demanding that they stop trading Russian hydrocarbons immediately since export revenues are funding Moscow’s purchase of weapons and missiles. “The fact is that traders are trading and they are helping Russia to receive this blood money,” Ustenko told the Financial Times. “They are in this cycle of financing war crimes and genocide against Ukrainian citizens.” Russian exports of crude oil, refined products and gas to Europe alone are estimated to be providing Moscow with $850mn a day and have led Russia to a record current-account surplus, according to data from the Bruegel and the International Institute of Finance think-tanks. Images of civilian deaths have prompted Ukrainian leaders to accuse Russia of war crimes, a claim Moscow denies. While Russian oil and gas are not directly under EU sanctions, refiners, insurers, banks and shipping companies are “self-sanctioning” because of the risk of breaches or of tarnishing their reputations. Oil traders have a lower profile than energy companies such as BP and Shell, which have powerful marketing businesses that also trade Russian oil. However, they form an essential part of the infrastructure that allows commodities to flow around the world. Between the start of the war in Ukraine and the end of March, Glencore, Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor discharged 33 tankers carrying roughly 20mn barrels of crude and oil products loaded at Russian ports, according to an analysis of Refinitiv data by Global Witness, a lobby group, reviewed by the Financial Times. The figures include oil produced in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan but shipped from Russian ports. At the FT Commodities Global Summit last month, the bosses of the world’s biggest commodity traders said they have frozen investments and stopped taking new business in Russia but planned to keep fulfilling their obligations to take oil under legally binding long-term contracts, which have not been placed under sanctions. Asked for comment on Ustenko’s letter, all the trading companies said they unequivocally condemned the war in Ukraine. In a statement, Vitol said it would not enter into any new Russian oil transactions and “intends to cease trading Russian origin crude oil and product, unless directed otherwise”. “Volumes of oil will diminish significantly in the second quarter as current-term contractual obligations decline, and we anticipate this will be completed by end of 2022,” it said. Vitol said it was working with its consortium partner to find a “mutually acceptable solution” for the stake it holds in Vostok, a giant Arctic oil project being developed by Rosneft, the state-backed Russian oil producer. Trafigura said it was purchasing lower volumes of Russian oil than before the invasion. “We are not developing any new oil and gas business in Russia,” it added. Gunvor said it was legally obliged to fulfil existing trading contracts, which are not hit with sanctions. “No new business is being conducted,” it said. Glencore said it would not enter any new trading business in respect of Russian commodities. At least 2.5mn of Russia’s 4.6mn barrels a day of crude exports in 2021 were sold under long-term contracts with 1.4mn b/d of those sent to Europe, according to research by JPMorgan. Russian crude exports dropped to 3.1mn b/d in the second half of March, down from 3.5mn b/d in the first half of the month, data from commodity analysis group Kpler show. However, the traders have not disclosed the volume of oil they must take under their contracts. Under some Russian contracts, traders are legally bound to lift volumes nominated by the seller.
Eni Makes Oil And Gas Discoveries In Egypt Western Desert - Italian oil major Eni has made new oil and gas discoveries in the Meleiha concessions in Egypt’s Western Desert, for approximately 8,500 barrels per day of oil equivalent. Eni said that these discoveries have already been connected and tied into production, in line with the infrastructure-led exploration strategy, allowing to maximize exploration opportunities nearby existing infrastructures. The results were obtained through Nada E Deep 1X well, which encountered 195 feet of net hydrocarbon pay in the Cretaceous-Jurassic Alam El Bueib and Khatatba formations, Meleiha SE Deep 1X well, which found 100 feet of net hydrocarbon pay in the Cretaceous-Jurassic sands of the Matruh and Khatatba formations, and Emry Deep 21 well, which encountered 115 feet of net hydrocarbon pay in the massive Cretaceous sandstones of Alam El Bueib. These results, added to the discoveries of 2021 for a total of 8 exploration wells, give a 75 percent of success rate, confirming the potential of the area. Other exploration activities in the concession are ongoing with promising indications. With these discoveries, Eni, through AGIBA – a joint venture between Eni and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, continues to successfully pursue its near field strategy in the mature basin of the Western Desert, aimed at maximizing production by containing development costs and minimizing time to market. Eni also renewed its commitment to the Western Desert with the recent acquisition of two exploration blocks with the planning in 2022 of a new high-resolution 3D seismic survey in the Meleiha concession, also aimed at investigating the gas potential of the area, in line with the energy transition goals. This week, Eni and the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company agreed to maximize Egypt’s gas production and LNG exports. Eni said that the agreement aims to promote Egyptian gas export to Europe, and specifically to Italy, in the context of the transition to a low carbon economy.
UN unveils plan to prevent stricken oil tanker disaster off Yemen coast -- Critical funding and timely action are needed to prevent a decaying tanker anchored close to Yemen’s coastline from sparking a major oil spill, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for the country said on Friday in New York. David Gressly outlined plans to address the threat posed by the FSO Safer, described as a time bomb sitting off Yemen’s Red Sea coast. The 45-year-old floating storage and offloading (FSO) facility holds 1.1 million barrels of oil, or four times the amount of the Exxon Valdez – the tanker that caused one of the greatest environmental disasters in United States’ history. It is at imminent risk of spilling a massive amount of oil due to leakages or an explosion. “If it were to happen, the spill would unleash a massive ecological and humanitarian catastrophe centered on a country already decimated by more than seven years of war,” said Mr. Gressly. The FSO Safer has been moored some 4.8 nautical miles south west of the Ras Issa peninsula on Yemen’s west coast for more than 30 years. Production, offloading and maintenance ceased in 2015 due to the conflict between a pro-Government Saudi-led coalition, and Houthi rebels, and the vessel is now beyond repair. Mr. Gressly warned that a significant spill would have devastating consequences for Yemen and beyond. Some 200,000 livelihoods in the already war and crisis-wracked country could be instantly wiped out, and families would be exposed to life-threatening toxins. “A major oil spill would likely close, at least temporarily, the ports of Hudaydah and Saleef,” he added, referring to critical entry points for food, fuel and supplies. The disaster would have a severe environmental impact on water, reefs and life-supporting mangroves. Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia are also at risk. Clean-up alone would cost $20 billion. “That does not count the cost of environmental damage across the Red Sea. Or the billions that could be lost due to disruptions to shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is also a passageway to the Suez Canal,” Mr. Gressly told journalists.
UN seeks $80 million to prevent ′imminent′ Yemen oil spill = The United Nations is seeking nearly $80 million from donor nations for an emergency operation to remove a million barrels of crude oil from a tanker anchored off the coast of war-ravaged Yemen and avert a catastrophic oil spill in the Red Sea. FSO Safer is a 45-year-old vessel that was sold to Yemen in the 1980s and has been used as a floating oil storage platform. It has 1.1 million barrels of crude oil on board. Since 2015 the tanker has been moored off the Yemeni port city of Hodeida — held by Houthi rebels — without being serviced. UN warns of ecological 'time bomb' David Gressly, the UN resident and humanitarian coordinator for Yemen, said on Friday that the tanker is "a time bomb" because a major oil spill "would unleash a massive ecological and humanitarian catastrophe centered on a country already decimated by more than seven years of war.'' "Without funding over the next six weeks or so the project will not begin on time, and this time bomb will continue to tick,'' he added. There are fears that the tanker could explode or leak causing a major environmental disaster in the Red Sea and beyond. Following years of talks, the United Nations and Yemen's Houthi rebels signed off on a memorandum of understanding in March this year, authorizing a four-month emergency operation to tackle the immediate risk which involves transferring oil on the Safer tanker to another vessel. The MOU, in the long term, urges replacing the tanker with another vessel within 18 months.
DOE grants exploration contract for Cotabato Basin -The Department of Energy (DOE) has issued a petroleum service contract to SK Liguasan Oil and Gas Corporation (SKLOGC) to develop the Cotabato Basin, which includes the Liguasan Marsh. According to a Manila Standard report, Energy Sec. Alfonso Cusi confirmed the signing of Service Contract (SC) 77 last week. Cusi had endorsed the contract to the Office of the President for final approval, which then allowed the DOE to proceed with the awarding of SC77 “provided that SKLOGC shall submit an undertaking stating, among others, that it shall abide by the final decision of the Supreme Court relative to tax assumption provisions of other existing [petroleum service contracts].” SC77 covers a 72,000-hectare petroleum-prospective area in the onshore Cotabato Basin, which sits on a 1.2-million hectare area in Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao, and North and South Cotabato. Together, the four provinces comprised most of the old Cotabato province during the American colonial and postwar periods. SKLOGC was the challenger for the nominated Area 9 of the Philippine Conventional Energy Contracting Program (PCECP) that was launched by the DOE in 2018 to “encourage stakeholders to invest, explore, develop and produce Philippine indigenous energy resources.” SKLOGC was able to identify 22 sites within the SC77 area to have the potential for oil and gas deposits.
Nigeria Records $1.86bn Oil Export To India In Q4 = India has remained one of the largest export markets for Nigeria, as report showed Nigeria exported crude oil worth N774.5 billion or ($1.86 billion) to India in the fourth quarter of 2021. According to Nigeria Bureau of Statistics(NBS) report, crude oil was followed by exports of liquefied natural gas at N89.8 billion and liquefied petroleum gas otherwise known as cooking gas at N6.7 billion to India. India remains one of the largest export markets for Nigeria and accounted for 15.2 per cent of total exports in the quarter, amounting to N874.9 billion, it said. The NBS said Spain ranked second in the fourth quarter, with exports to the European country valued at N789.2 billion. Crude oil was the largest exported commodity to Spain worth N624 billion in the quarter. Nigeria exported liquefied natural gas worth N159.8 billion to Spain in the fourth quarter, it said. ADVERTISEMENT Also, Nigeria exported crude oil worth N383.6 billion to the Netherlands in the same quarter, according to NBS. Nigeria is Africa’s largest crude exporter. Oil exports account for more than 90 per cent of the country’s foreign exchange earnings and 70 per cent of government revenue, according to the International Monetary Fund. YOU MAYLIKE
India's fuel demand rose 4.2 per cent in March: Oil ministry data -- India's fuel demand rose 4.2% in March compared with the same month last year, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry showed on Monday. Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, totalled 19.41 million tonnes. Sales of gasoline, or petrol, were 6.2% higher from a year earlier at 2.91 million tonnes. Cooking gas or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales increased 9.9% to 2.48 million tonnes, while naphtha sales fell 13.2% to 1.11 million tonnes. Sales of bitumen, used for making roads, were 11.6% lower, while fuel oil use advanced 14.4% in March.
Petrol, diesel prices hiked by 80 paise; total increase now stands at Rs 9.20 per litre --Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre each, taking the total increase in rates in the last two weeks to Rs 9.20 per litre. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 104.61 per litre as against Rs 103.81 previously, while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 95.07 per litre to Rs 95.87, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending upon the incidence of local taxation. This is the 13th increase in prices since the ending of a four-and-half-month long hiatus in rate revision on March 22. In all, petrol and diesel prices have gone up by Rs 9.20 per litre.
IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast - The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand this year after China reimposed lockdowns to contain the spread of a resurgent coronavirus. With the weaker demand outlook and the massive release of emergency oil reserves by IEA members, the agency now sees global markets in balance for much of the year. Crude prices have already lost most of their gains since Russia’s attack on Ukraine, to trade near $100 a barrel in New York on Wednesday. “We’re seeing now that economic forecasters are continuing to downgrade their outlook for the world economy, and obviously this will have an impact on oil demand,” Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s markets and industry division, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The market does look more balanced.” The Paris-based agency, which advises most major economies, lowered projections for world fuel consumption this year by 260,000 barrels a day, with a particularly steep reduction of 925,000 a day for China in April. Still, global demand remains on track to increase this year. The IEA also dialed back estimates for the loss of Russian supplies from an international boycott over its military aggression. Production in April may be 1.5 million barrels a day lower than the prior month -- roughly half the drop that was previously expected. Those losses may still double in May, the IEA said. Oil surged well above $100 a barrel following Russia’s attack on its neighbor. While prices have eased, they are still high enough to stoke inflationary pressures and exacerbate a cost-of-living crisis for millions of consumers. To counter this, IEA members announced last week that they will deploy 240 million barrels from emergency reserves, the biggest stockpile release in the agency’s history. China’s Outbreak “Prices are now back to near pre-invasion levels, but remain troublingly high and are a serious threat for the global economic outlook,” the IEA said. World oil consumption will expand by 1.9 million barrels a day to average 99.4 million a day this year, according to the IEA. “Oil demand is still recovering from Covid,” said Bosoni. “The aviation sector is recovering, there’s pent-up demand, so we are expecting growth. But obviously downside risk if the economic outlook deteriorates.”
Crude oil futures tumble on concerns over China COVID-19 spread, SPR release -Crude oil futures tumbled in mid-morning trade in Asia April 11 due to growing concerns over China's battle against a COVID-19 surge and the oil reserve release from consuming nations. At 10:21 am Singapore time (0221 GMT), the ICE June Brent futures contract was down $2.75/b (2.68%) from the previous close to $100.03/b, while the NYMEX May light sweet crude contract fell $2.76/b (2.81%) at $95.50/b. "Oil price gains still feel limited amid China's COVID-19 concerns and global recession worries in the face of more hawkish central bank policies," said SPI Asset Management Managing Partner Stephen Innes in an April 11 note, adding that the emergency oil reserve release by the International Energy Agency also weighed on prices. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases continued to grow in Shanghai, currently the epicenter of the outbreak in China. There were 914 symptomatic cases and 25,173 asymptomatic cases in the city as of April 10, the local government said on its official WeChat account April 11, making for a fresh record high of 26,087 cases in total. In a grim portent for oil demand in the world's second largest oil consumer, authorities in other cities, including Ningbo and Beijing, have begun implementing limited restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, according to media reports. The latest developments will add to growing worries over the outlook for oil, coming after the US, followed by the IEA, announced over the last two weeks oil reserve releases totaling around 240 million barrels over the next six months. Dubai crude swaps were lower in mid-morning trade in Asia April 11 from the previous close, though intermonth spreads were higher. The June Dubai swap was pegged at $94.74/b at 10 am Singapore time (0200 GMT), down 58 cents/b (0.61%) from the April 8 Asian market close. The May-June Dubai swap intermonth spread was pegged at 87 cents/b at 10 am, up 8 cents/b over the same period, and the June-July spread was pegged at 71 cents/b, up 13 cents/b. The June Brent/Dubai EFS was pegged at $5.83/b, down 43 cents/b.
Oil drops, Brent crude falls below $100 as China lockdowns spark demand fears - Oil prices slid Monday, falling to the lowest level since February and building on two straight weeks of declines as lockdowns in China sparked demand fears. International benchmark Brent crude fell 4.18% to end the session at $98.48 per barrel, the first settle under $100 since March 16. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 4.04% to settle at $94.29. During the session the contract traded as low as $92.93, a price not seen since Feb. 25. "The spread of Covid in China is the most bearish item affecting the market," China is the world's largest oil importer, and the Shanghai area consumes roughly 4% of the country's crude, according to Lipow. The potential hit to demand comes as the supply side of the equation has been front and center given Russia's role as a key oil and gas producer and exporter. Last week the International Energy Agency announced that its member countries would release 120 million barrels from emergency stockpiles, of which 60 million barrels would be from the U.S. The announcement followed the Biden administration saying it would release 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to alleviate soaring prices. WTI fell 1% last week while Brent declined 1.5%, with both contracts posting their fourth negative week in the last five. Oil prices have been on a roller-coaster ride since Russia invaded Ukraine. WTI briefly traded as high as $130.50 on March 7, the highest level since July 2008. The contract has fallen nearly 30% since. Brent meantime spiked to $139.13 in March. Part of the move is thanks to fears over what a disruption in Russian supply would mean for an already tight market. The IEA previously predicted that three million barrels per day of Russian oil output was at risk. Traders also attributed oil's wild swings to non-energy market participants exchanging contracts as a way to hedge against inflation, among other things. Still, Wall Street firms were quick to point out that tapping emergency oil stockpiles will alleviate the price spike in the near-term, but doesn't address the fundamental issues in the market. "[S]ome of the market tightness caused by the self-sanctioning of Russian crude buyers — either in fear of future sanctions or for reputational reasons — should ease," UBS wrote in regards to the emergency releases. "But it will not fix the the oil market's structural imbalance resulting from years of underinvestment at a time of recovering global demand," the firm added.
Oil Slides on Lockdowns, Announced Releases From Reserves -- Oil futures settled Monday's session with sharp losses spearheaded by tightening lockdowns of China's largest cities and flagging fuel demand on the back of the largest COVID-19 outbreak since beginning of the pandemic, as well as announced reserve releases from the International Energy Agency and the United States that eased concerns over near-term supply shortages on the global market. China's producer price index, which measures factory inflation, increased 8.3% on annual basis, according to the government data released Monday, threatening to exacerbate rising prices for manufactured goods worldwide. China's consumer price index, which tracks the cost of everyday goods and services, also rose above expectations, albeit by a modest 1.5%, year-on-year, compared with 0.9% in February. Rising prices for everyday goods and services highlight rising challenges for the world's second largest economy that is struggling to control the latest COVID-19 outbreak. China's Premier Li Keqiang warned Monday that China will have to step up imports of food to replenish its stockpiles in the coming months, which is going to put additional pressure on global inflation. "Economic pressures are increasing. Because of lockdowns, food prices are going to rise further," he added. The World Bank slashed China's 2022 growth forecast, estimating gross domestic product would grow 5% this year, down sharply from last year's 8.1% expansion rate. That's also lower than China's official target of about 5.5%. China's largest COVID-19 outbreak since the beginning of the pandemic continues to spread despite extended lockdown of Shanghai's 25 million people, with restrictions weighing on its economy and straining global supply chains. Cases of COVID-19 in Shanghai have surged to 130,000 as of Monday, raising fears that the lockdown of China's largest city would continue. The lockdowns are prompting canceled flights and movement restrictions that could cut 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil demand, according to estimates from Commerzbank. Underlining recent gains for the oil complex, Russia's crude production is expected to suffer a heavy blow from the Western sanctions that have already shaved off between 4% and 5% from Russian oil production, according to Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. On the session, NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures fell below $95 barrel (bbl), down $3.97 from Friday's settlement to $94.259 bbl, and the ICE June Brent contract declined $4.30 to $98.48 bbl. NYMEX May RBOB futures fell 12.85 cents to $3.0031 gallon and NYMEX front-month ULSD dropped 4.99 cents to $3.2677 gallon.
Oil Gains After OPEC, EIA Lower Global Supply Outlook -- Oil futures rallied in afternoon trade Tuesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the U.S. Energy Information Administration downgraded the global supply outlook through 2023, driven by sharp revisions to Russian oil production, which has been hammered by the sanctions levied by Western governments since Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. In its Short-term Energy Outlook released Tuesday afternoon, EIA forecast Russian oil production would fall by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from February through the end of 2023. Russia's oil production averaged 11.23 million bpd in March, according to OPEC's secondary sources, some 500,000 bpd below February's output rate. Private surveys, however, peg Russian output a tad above 10 million bpd. Such a staggering loss of Russian barrels is bound to weigh on the global supply outlook in the near-term while further supporting oil prices. Accelerated growth in U.S. oil production, seen at 12 million bpd this year, could only partially offset the expected decline in Russia's output. On the demand side, OPEC and EIA sharply cut global fuel consumption through 2023, citing renewed weakness across developing countries and the COVID outbreak in China. OPEC shaved 500,000 bpd off global demand projections for this year for demand growth of 3.7 million bpd, mostly reflecting the downward revision in world economic growth expectations. EIA made a more aggressive call on demand destruction, cutting 2022 consumption expectations by 810,000 bpd from the previous month's outlook. The sharp revisions in the outlooks come against a backdrop of surging inflation in the United States and elsewhere. The Department of Labor reported Tuesday morning that the U.S. consumer price index climbed 1.2% from February to March, bringing the annualized rate of inflation to the highest level since 1982 at 8.5%. Rising consumer prices have been unrelenting, with six straight months of inflation above 6%, which is well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Internationally, China's producer price index, which measures factory inflation, increased 8.3% on an annual basis, according to government data released on Monday, threatening to exacerbate rising prices for manufactured goods worldwide. China's Premier Li Keqiang warned on Monday that China would have to step up imports of food to replenish its stockpiles in coming months, which is going to put additional pressure on global inflation. On the session, NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $6.31 to $100.60 bbl, and the ICE June Brent contract rallied $6.16 to $104.64 bbl. NYMEX May RBOB gained 15.07 cents to $3.1538 gallon, and May ULSD jumped 19.67 cents to $3.4644 gallon.
OPEC tells EU that Russia oil crisis is beyond its control— OPEC’s top diplomat told European Union officials that the current crisis in global oil markets caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is beyond the group’s control. Russian oil supply losses stemming from current and future sanctions or a boycott by customers could potentially exceed 7 million barrels a day, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said on Monday. That would be far beyond the group’s capacity to replace, he told EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson, who had asserted the cartel’s responsibility to balance the market. Simson said that the oil-producers group could tap its existing spare output capacity to assist in the crisis, according to an OPEC document seen by Bloomberg. Barkindo said that markets are being swayed by political factors rather than supply and demand, leaving little for the organization to do. “These crises have compounded to create a highly volatile market,” Barkindo said, according to the text of his opening remarks. “I must point out, however, that these are non-fundamental factors that are totally out of our control at OPEC.” Oil prices continue to trade near $100 a barrel as many refiners shun Russian supplies following the attack on its neighbor. The price rally has bolstered fuels like diesel, adding to the inflationary pressures and cost-of-living crisis hitting many consumers. OPEC nations such as Saudi Arabia have rebuffed calls from major consumers like the U.S. to fill in the gap left by Russia. Besides their view of the market, the kingdom and its allies may have other reasons for holding back. Riyadh jointly leads an alliance of global producers with Moscow known as OPEC+, and may also be keen to preserve its political ties with the Kremlin, which have helped the Saudis lessen their reliance on the U.S.
Oil settles up on Shanghai lockdown easing, Russian production cuts (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as lockdowns eased in Shanghai and as Russian oil and gas condensate production fell to 2020 lows and OPEC warned it would be impossible to replace potential supply losses from Russia. Brent crude futures rose $6.16, or 6.3%, to settle at $104.64 a barrel by 1:48 p.m. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $6.31, or 6.7%, to settle at $100.60. On Monday, both benchmarks fell about 4%. Shanghai said more than 7,000 residential units had been classified as lower-risk areas after reporting no new infections for 14 days. Districts have been announcing which compounds can be opened up. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned it would be impossible to replace 7 million bpd of Russian oil and other liquids exports lost in the event of sanctions or voluntary actions. Russian oil and gas condensate production fell below 10 million barrels per day (bpd) on Monday to its lowest since July 2020, two sources familiar with data said on Tuesday, as sanctions and logistical constraints hampered trade. Sources said Russia’s average oil output fell more than 6% to 10.32 million bpd on April 1-11 from 11.01 million in March. The European Union has yet to embargo Russian oil, but some foreign ministers said the option is on the table. “The oil market is still vulnerable to a major shock if Russian energy is sanctioned, and that risk remains on the table,” wrote Edward Moya, a senior market analyst with OANDA. OPEC on Tuesday lowered its Russian liquids production forecast by 530,000 bpd for 2022, but also cut its forecast for growth in world oil demand, citing the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, soaring crude prices and resurgence of the pandemic in China. Indian Oil Corp (IOC), which bought Russian Urals in previous tenders, has removed the grade from its latest crude tender. U.S. President Joe Biden told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday that buying more oil from Russia was not in India’s interest. IEA member nations are planning to release 240 million barrels over the next six months from May in an effort to calm the market. While the release will ease immediate tightness, analysts suggested it will not solve the structural deficit, and stocks will need to be replenished.
Oil Futures Extend Gains Despite Large Crude Supply Build - -- Oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange drifted higher in midmorning trade Wednesday despite weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing commercial oil stocks spiked well above expectations during the week ended April 8 as refiners surprisingly reduced run rates and demand for distillate fuels eroded to the lowest level since the holiday week of July 4, 2021, underscoring continued demand destruction from slowing economy and rattled supply chains. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories jumped by 9.4 million barrels (bbl) from the previous week to 421.8 million bbl, and are now about 13% below the five-year average, the EIA said. The massive build was bearish against market expectations of a 600,000 bbl gain and 7.757 million bbl build reported by the American Petroleum Institute. Oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, rose by 450,000 bbl from the previous week to 26.3 million bbl. The larger-than-expected build came as domestic refiners slashed run rates 2.5% from the previous week to 90%, compared with analyst estimates for a 0.3% increase. In the week reviewed, refiners processed 15.5 million barrels per day (bpd), which was 424,000 bpd less than the previous week's average. U.S. crude oil production was unchanged at 11.8 million bpd, according to the EIA. In the gasoline complex, commercial inventories fell by 3.6 million bbl to 233.1 million bbl, compared with analyst estimates for inventories to decrease by 600,000 bbl from the previous week. Gasoline demand in the U.S. gained for the second consecutive week through April 8, up by 174,000 bpd to 8.736 million bpd. Distillate stocks rose fell by 2.9 million bbl from the previous week to 111.4 million bbl, and are now about 17% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Analysts expected distillates inventories would be unchanged from the previous week. Demand for distillate fuels continued lower for the third consecutive week through April 8, falling by 163,000 bpd last week to 10-month low 3.484 million bpd. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million bpd, up by 1.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million bpd, down by 2.3% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million bpd over the past four weeks, down by 0.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 23.1% compared with the same four-week period last year. Near 11:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate May futures climbed $2.21 to $102.87 bbl, and international benchmark Brent crude rallied $2.67 to $107.30 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures advanced 9.02 cents to $3.2425 gallon and the front-month ULSD futures added 8.91 cents to $3.5531 gallon.
Oil prices up over 3% despite big U.S. crude stock build --Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors grew more discouraged about peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, feeding worries about tight supplies even after U.S. crude stocks rose by more than 9 million barrels in the most recent week. Brent crude advanced $4.14, or 3.96%, to $108.78. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 3.63%, or $3.65, higher at $104.25 per barrel. The gains came a day after both benchmarks climbed more than 6%. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine derailed peace talks and said Moscow would continue what it calls a "special military operation." U.S. President Joe Biden accused Russia of genocide. The developments reinforced the view "the Ukraine-Russia situation will not be de-escalating any time soon," "The downside for oil prices is limited." The oil market's retreat from late March peaks came partly because buyers are unclear about the extent of potential disruptions to Russian supply. On Monday, Russian oil and gas condensate production fell below 10 million barrels per day (bpd), lowest since July 2020. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday lowered its expectations for worldwide demand and said it anticipated rising global production could offset Russian oil output losses. The IEA said it expects Russian output to drop 1.5 million bpd in April, growing to close to 3 million bpd in May. The White House is releasing 180 million barrels from U.S. reserves over six months, part of a release of 240 million barrels from members of the International Energy Agency. U.S. production is expected to keep rising from 11.8 million bpd now to about 12 million in 2022. Exports of refined products reached an all-time record, as heavy overseas demand caused U.S. stockpiles to fall. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has said it would be impossible to replace expected supply losses from Russia and it would not pump more crude. Reports this week of a partial easing of some of China's tight COVID-19 lockdown measures also underpinned oil prices on the basis they could boost demand. However, weak economic data from China and Japan limited gains. China's crude oil imports slipped 14% from a year earlier, extending a two-month slide in the world's top crude importer. Japan reported its biggest monthly fall in core machinery orders in nearly two years. OPEC on Tuesday cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth, citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, inflation and resurgence of the pandemic in China. OPEC expects global demand to grow by 3.67 million bpd in 2022, down 480,000 bpd from its previous forecast.
Oil rises on news EU may phase in a ban on Russian oil imports --Oil prices settled higher on Thursday after an early decline as investors covered short positions ahead of the long weekend and on news that the European Union might phase in a ban on Russian oil imports. Brent futures settled up $2.92, or 2.68%, at $111.70 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures closed $2.70 or 2.59% higher at $106.95 a barrel. Both contracts recorded their first weekly gain in April. For several weeks, prices have been the most volatile since June 2020. The New York Times reported that the European Union was moving toward adopting a phased-in ban of Russian oil, to give Germany and other countries time to arrange alternative suppliers. A phased-in ban would force European buyers "to seek alternative sources, some of which in the near term is being met by Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, but in the future, more supplies coming out of the ground will be required," Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston said. The International Energy Agency had warned on Wednesday that roughly 3 million barrels per day of Russian oil could be shut in from May onwards due to sanctions or buyers voluntarily shunning Russian cargoes. Major global trading houses are planning to curtail crude and fuel purchases from Russia's state-controlled oil companies in May, Reuters reported. Russia's Energy Ministry said it was limiting access to its statistics on oil and gas production and exports. "The big question is going to be, how many people are going to want to be short oil going into the long weekend?" Traders also adjusted their position on Thursday as U.S. May crude options expire on Thursday. U.S. oil production forecasts are being revised upwards despite labor and supply chain constraints as higher prices spur more drilling and well completion activity, according to industry experts. U.S. oil rigs rose by two to 548 this week, their highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a report. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. oil stocks rose by more than 9 million barrels last week, driven partly by releases from strategic reserves. Analysts in a Reuters poll had anticipated just an 863,000-barrel build. However, on the demand side, Chinese refiners are set to cut crude throughput this month by about 6%, a scale last seen in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic two years ago, to ease bulging fuel inventories during recent lockdowns, industry sources and analysts said.
Oil up Almost 9% on Week as Supply Scare Hijacks Trade-- Any selloff in oil is only proving to be a buy-back opportunity amid one of the greatest energy markets volatility ever. Crude prices jumped almost 3% on the day and nearly 9% on the week as the market was hijacked once again by a supply scare on news that the European Union might phase in a ban on Russian oil imports. Gains in oil were limited earlier in the day as Chinese refiners appeared set to cut crude throughput this month by about 6%. The reduction would be a scale last seen in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic two years ago, industry sources and analysts said. But news of the proposed EU ban on Russian oil prompted buyers to swoop in on more lots of crude futures and convinced some shorts to cover their positions as well ahead of the Good Friday holiday, which meant a longer weekend for U.S. markets. “Heading into the long weekend, oil was vulnerable to some profit-taking, but a major pullback is still unwarranted given the supply situation and as economic slowdown concerns are still far from happening,” said Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA. Global crude benchmark Brent settled up $2.92, or 2.7%, on the day at $111.70 per barrel. For the week, Brent rose 8.7%, after two back-to-back weekly losses that left it down by 13%. New York-traded U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, finished Thursday’s trade up $2.70, or 2.6%, at $106.95. For the week, WTI rose 8.8%, after the 13% tumble over two previous weeks. The New York Times reported that the European Union was moving toward adopting a phased-in ban of Russian oil, to give Germany and other countries time to arrange alternative suppliers. A phased-in ban would force European buyers "to seek alternative sources, some of which in the near term is being met by Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, but in the future, more supplies coming out of the ground will be required,"
Oil Bounces Back for Weekly Gain as EU Moves Towards Russian Oil Ban - Oil notched a weekly gain as traders weighed a global supply deficit, a potential ban on Russian oil from the European Union, and and China’s latest virus lockdowns. West Texas Intermediate settled near $107, rising 8.8% for the week. Oil rallied Thursday afternoon after a report that the European Union is moving toward adopting a phased-in ban on Russian oil. President Vladimir Putin vowed to continue the invasion of Ukraine earlier this week, pointing to a prolonged disruption of Russia’s energy exports. Additionally, the International Energy Agency said in a report that OPEC+ members provided only 10% of their promised supply increases last month. In the U.S., crude stockpiles jumped more than 9 million barrels last week, with over a third of the build attributed to the shift of strategic oil reserves to commercial inventories. At the same time, most stocks of refined products fell, prompting a spike in so-called crack spreads -- the rough profit from turning crude into fuel. “Traders realize a good portion of that came from the Strategic Reserve which now sets at 20 year inventory lows,” said Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President of Trading, BOK Financial. “Crude storage remains 60.45 million barrels below the five-year average which should keep the buyers active on extreme sell offs.” The oil market has seen a tumultuous period of trading since Russia invaded its neighbor in late February. A recent reserve release by the U.S. and its allies, along with a virus resurgence in China, has weighed on prices in the past few weeks. Yet there are some signs of easing Covid restrictions and China’s central bank is expected to take measures to help bolster a faltering economy. “Government energy intervention, the perceived self-shunning of Russian crude and the erratic buying patterns in recent weeks have all altered the near-term path,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Tran said. Trading looks “volatile and sloppy over the near term as the market digests the onslaught of 240 million barrels of crude unleashed from strategic reserves.” WTI for May delivery rose $2.70 to settle at $106.95 in New York. Brent for June settlement rose $2.92 to settle at $111.70 a barrel. To be sure, the market is still in the grips of a liquidity crunch sparked by surging volatility after a spike toward $140. Open interest in WTI futures fell to the lowest since 2016 on Wednesday, while traders are using options strategies as a way of effectively raising cash in the face of limited sources of capital. Elsewhere, Kazakhstan expects its main oil-export route via Russia to restore full operations in late April, the country’s energy minister said. The nation said it remains concerned about the possible impact of Western sanctions or shipping issues on the flow of crude.
Russian Oil Continues To Flow To India And China - It has been exactly six weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine, with no end in sight to one of humanity's biggest existential crises in modern times. In response to Russia's unprovoked and unjustified war, the United States and the West have hit the rogue nation with a plethora of sanctions, with the latest announced just days ago mostly targeting Russia's financial sector.But so far, Russia's pivotal energy sector has largely been spared. With the exception of Lithuania and Poland as well as self-sanctioning by refiners and bankers, no country has yet to announce a ban on Russia's energy products. So far, Russian oil and gas exports to the EU remain largely unchanged since only the Baltic States have announced a 100% ban on Russian energy imports. Poland, a major thoroughfare for Russian energy supplies, has also been more proactive than most after it took steps to block Russian coal imports and announced steps to halt Russian oil imports by year-end. Poland--home to the ~1.3mb/d Druzhba pipeline that carries Russian crude to several points in Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic--directly consumes ~330kb/d of Russian crude and imports ~9.4mt of Russian thermal coal in 2020, accounting for ~5% of Russian exports. The EU currently gets about 40% of its natural gas from Russia, which powers everything from household heating to factory production, and makes up around 25% of the bloc's total energy consumption. The flow of "bloody money" to Russia must stop, Kyiv's mayor has said as the West prepares new sanctions on Moscow after dead civilians were found lining the streets of a Ukrainian town seized from Russian invaders. Since Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine, turning their assault on the south and east, grim images from the town of Bucha near Kyiv, including a mass grave and bound bodies of people shot at close range, have prompted international outrage. Unfortunately, a ban on Russian oil and gas by the U.S. and the EU might not be as damaging to Russia as the west hopes, with the presence of heavily discounted Urals proving too irresistible for some. India has never been a big buyer of Russian crude despite needing to import 80% of its needs. In a typical year, India imports just 2-5% of its crude from Russia, roughly the same proportion as the United States did before it announced a 100% ban on Russian energy commodities. Indeed, India imported only 12 million barrels of Russian crude in 2021, with the majority of its oil coming from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Nigeria. But reports have now emerged of a "significant uptick" in Russian oil deliveries bound for India.And, it could be all about the money.According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Urals crude from Russia is being offered at record discounts. Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, has told CNBC that a couple of commodity trading firms--such as Glencore and Vitol--were offering discounts of $30 and $25 per barrel, respectively, two weeks ago for the Urals blend. Urals is the main blend exported by Russia.The experts say simple economics is the reason why White House pressure to curb purchases of crude oil from Russia have fallen on deaf ears in Delhi.
U.S. Shakes Finger At India For Russian Oil Imports The U.S. has warned India that it was not in its interest to continue importing crude oil from Russia, media reported, citing government officials and White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki.According to a Reuters report that cited unnamed White House officials, during a video call on Monday, the U.S. president had expressed concerns about India's position in the world if it continued relying on Russian energy imports.The same official noted that India had concerns about the increasingly closer ties between Moscow and its regional rival, Beijing.Al Jazeera, meanwhile, cited White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki as saying President Biden had told Prime Minister Modi that the U.S. could help India diversify its energy suppliers."The president … conveyed that we are here to help them diversify their means of importing oil. The imports from the United States are already significant, much bigger than the imports that they get from Russia," Psaki said, adding, "The president conveyed very clearly that it is not in their interests to increase that."However, per the Reuters report, the U.S. president had stopped short of actually asking India to stop buying Russian crude. The External Affairs Minister in New Delhi, meanwhile, brushed off any concern about India's Russian oil purchases, saying that "Probably our total purchases for the month would be less than what Europe does in an afternoon."Indeed, an Economic Times report cited Press Secretary Psaki as saying that Russian oil accounts for about 1 to 2 percent of total Indian oil imports. U.S. imports, by comparison, constitute a tenth of the total.An official White House readout of the call between President Biden and Prime Minister Modi did not mention oil imports at all, with the only reference to the war in Ukraine made with regard to global food security.
India’s Russian Dealings Have Left Biden’s Geopolitical Oil Strategy In Tatters -- Up until recently, Washington thought India could finally and definitively be brought on to its side in the evolving power struggle between the U.S. and its allies on the one hand, and China and its allies (including Russia) on the other. However, a series of quick-fire developments have derailed this optimism, leaving a key part of the U.S. broader Middle Eastern and Asia Pacific military, economic, and hydrocarbons strategy in tatters.The latest example of India not playing the vital role that had been envisioned for it by the U.S. are the plethora of oil deals being done by India with Russia, despite the obvious opposition to such activities from Washington.When the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, ‘nuclear deal’) with Iran in May 2018, a key concept in the White House was to use this hard-line stance on Iran to parlay into broader and deeper relationships with other Arab states that had become increasingly alarmed by Iran’s efforts to destabilise the region, as analysed in depth inmy new book on the global oil markets. This was to be achieved in large part through a series of bilateral agreements – later formalised into the ‘relationship normalisation deals’ – to be done between Israel (a power more than equal to Iran in the region, tacitly backed up by the even bigger power of the U.S.) and those Arab states that Washington believed were open to becoming unequivocal allies of the U.S. These included the UAE, in which the U.S. has its Al-Dhafra Air Base, plus Patriot missiles, to help intercept any air assaults by the Iranian-backed Houthis or anyone else. They also included Bahrain (as a proxy for Saudi Arabia, and home to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, and the Fifth Fleet), and Morocco (a crucially-positioned ally to the U.S. in its counterterrorism efforts, so much so that Washington designated it ‘a Major Non-NATO Ally’ in 2004) and Sudan (also regarded as a potentially important centre for counterterrorism activities by the U.S.).For the Middle Eastern contingent in these deals there was the added incentive for the U.S. that oil flows from these countries could be used in the short-term to counterbalance the net loss of oil to the markets that resulted from new sanctions on Iranian oil flows.Medium-term as well, thought Washington, by investing more money into both the UAE and Bahrain – with more oil-rich countries then encouraged to also sign relationship normalisation deals – they would see significant boosts in their oil production to allow the U.S. to reduce its relationship with non-cooperative Middle Eastern countries.Longer-term, the U.S. planned to be so self-sufficient in oil and gas that it only has to deal with countries that also offer it political allegiance in its struggle to retain its number one global superpower spot in the face of China’s advances. In any event, all of this was to be done whilst ensuring that the price of oil did not stay for any extended periods above the US$75-80 per barrel level at which it starts to cause economic trouble for the U.S. and political trouble for the sitting president at the time, as also analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets.
After buying cheap Russian oil, India is now setting sights on its coal --India's hunger for coal is growing. Even as the world shuns Russian goods, the Asian giant is setting its sights on Russian coal – after already buying up its discounted oil. The European Commission last week proposed banning Russian coal as part of a new round of sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, India's coal imports from Russia jumped in March to highs not seen in more than two years, according to data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler. Coal imports from Russia were at 1.04 million tonnes, the highest level since January 2020, Kpler's Matthew Boyle, lead dry bulk analyst, told CNBC in an email. As much as two-thirds of March's volume came from Russia's Far East ports, likely after the war began in late February. "Markets suspect that India and China may boost coal imports from Russia, offsetting some of the impact of a formalised EU ban on Russian coal imports," Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities research at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note last week. Last week, India said it planned to double imports of Russian coking coal, used to make steel. "The EU ban on Russian coal imports comes at a time when the international coal market is already very tight, with correspondingly high prices," said Rystad Energy in a note. "A surge in coal demand in Asia, as countries try to minimize imports of expensive natural gas, has sent coal prices soaring in the past year."
Shipping Russian Oil Gets Costlier -Daily earnings for tankers shipping oil from Russia’s Baltic ports are soaring as shipowners continue to exercise caution about hauling the country’s crude. It now costs more than $348,000 a day to charter an oil tanker from the port of Primorsk to northwest Europe. That’s the highest since at least 2008, according to data from the Baltic Exchange in London. The increase is another sign of the discounts Russian producers will have to apply to their supplies in order to find buyers. Russian Urals crude was offered at almost $35 a barrel below the Dated Brent benchmark price last week, at a time when tanker earnings were about $100,000 a day lower than they are now. Assuming a freight cost of about $7 a barrel, it means producers would receive a discount of more than $40. Rates for cargoes from Russia have been spiking since the war broke out. Most owners have steered clear of dealing with Russian cargoes and ports, as a raft of self-sanctioning sweeps over the oil industry, pushing up costs. For smaller Aframax ships, which carry about 700,000 barrels of oil, the situation has been compounded by Russia’s Sovcomflot PJSC being the largest owner of such vessels. With traders staying away from Russian entities, the availability of smaller ships has decreased. Additional costs have also been mounting. London insurers recently extended their list of areas where underwriters can charge extra premiums to all Russian waters. At the start of the conflict those so-called Listed Areas included only parts of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, but now additional costs are filtering through to other export ports. Last week, ships entering the Black Sea were almost uninsurable as underwriters were asking for as much as 10% of the value of a ship’s hull to cover a voyage.
UK Prime Minster Boris Johnson stakes his claim as Europe’s top warmonger - UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev Saturday in an unannounced visit that was weeks in planning. For Johnson, representing NATO powers funnelling staggering amounts of lethal weaponry to Ukraine, the visit was a sickening photo op designed to present him as Europe’s most fervent warmonger. A compliant media led their front pages with celebrations of the visit. The Sunday Times ran a photo of Johnson and Zelensky with a menacing armed guard behind them below a headline reading, “BROTHERS IN ARMS”. Johnson also calculated that the trip into a war zone would divert attention from a government mired in crisis, which has overseen over 190,000 COVID deaths and is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police over parties held during pandemic lockdowns. Millions of workers are facing a cost-of-living crisis and what the governor of the Bank and England described as a “historic shock” to their incomes. Even as Johnson left for Kiev, Chancellor Rishi Sunak faced political oblivion as a result of the non-domiciliary, non-UK-taxpaying, status of his wife, who is from one of India’s richest families. How desperate Johnson was to get to Kiev was detailed in the Mail on Sunday which noted, “Last month, it was reported that the Prime Minister had asked officials to examine the practicality and value of the trip to the Ukrainian capital for talks with his Ukrainian counterpart… At the time, security officials were said to be ‘having kittens’ at the prospect of Mr Johnson travelling to a war zone. But a Whitehall source said the Prime Minister ‘wants to go’ if it can be made to work.” No matter what, the dangerous trip went ahead. It followed Friday’s visit by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, alongside EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. The Ukrainian defence ministry tweeted, “We welcome Boris Johnson in Kyiv, the first G7 leader to arrive in Ukraine since the beginning of the large-scale war. We are strengthening our union of democracies. Be brave, like Boris. Be brave, like Ukraine.” Johnson set the militarist agenda for his visit the previous day with a Downing Street press conference alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The UK prime minister made another dig at Germany’s reliance on Russian energy supplies, stating, “We cannot transform our respective energy systems overnight, but we also know that Putin’s war will not end overnight. That’s why Britain and Germany have joined dozens of allies to supply Ukraine with defensive weapons. Last week, the UK convened a donor conference which raised weapons and equipment for Ukraine worth over £1.5 billion—or 2.5 million items of military kit.”
Refugees are choosing to return to war-torn Ukraine exhausted by the 'hunger and homelessness' inflicted by the long wait for UK visas - Insider spoke to three families returning to Ukraine because of the UK visa backlog. They said they could not afford housing in Europe while waiting for their visas to be approved. Just 2.8% of the Homes for Ukraine visa applicants have arrived in the UK, per the Home Office. Natalia Kulish, 34, had an agonizing choice to make. She could stay in Poland with her two children, facing homelessness if the family's visas to the UK took much longer to be issued. Or she could return to war-torn Ukraine, reuniting her children with their father but putting them at risk of being bombed. Kulish chose the latter, and she's one of several families of refugees who have reluctantly decided to turn back to Ukraine instead of waiting indefinitely for the Home Office to process their paperwork. Kulish fled Dnipro, in western Ukraine, with her children — Mariia, 11, and Luke, 4 — on March 16. They traveled to Warsaw, where a Polish man agreed to temporarily house them in his apartment while they waited for their visas to be issued. They applied for the Homes for Ukraine program — in which people and organizations in the UK can be matched with individuals fleeing Ukraine and offer them a place to live — on March 18, the day it launched. Kulish was told she could expect to receive a visa within four days, she told Insider. The Kulish family then planned to fly to the UK to start a new life with a sponsor family in Hampshire, England, or so they hoped. Two weeks passed, and the visa had still not been issued. By this point, Kulish and her family were no longer able to stay in the one-bedroom Warsaw apartment. "In Warsaw, there were a lot of people who came from Ukraine, and there was no opportunity to rent housing at an affordable price," she told Insider. Facing the possibility of homelessness, Kulish decided to return to her home in Ukraine on April 2. Back in Dnipro, Kulish said, "the nights pass anxiously" as she and her children listen to sirens blare and wait impatiently for their visas to be approved. On Thursday night, another family returned to their home in a war zone.
Vessel Sunk at Mariupol Port - The Dominican Republic flagged vessel Azburg was fired upon and sunk by Russian armed forces at the port of Mariupol on April 4, according to Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Security Threat Assessment (MSTA). The MSTA, which highlighted that the vessel was struck by two missile shells a day earlier, also noted that, on April 10, Russian state media claimed that a patrol vessel of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet opened fire on and damaged the Turkish owned, Maltese flagged bulk carrier Apache in the Sea of Azov. “The Russian state media, which is an inherently unreliable source, claimed that the vessel was trying to evacuate leaders of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion from Mariupol’s waterfront,” the MSTA stated. “Apache’s intermittent AIS signal provides no indication on whether she attempted to enter Mariupol. In addition, NATO advises that there is a persistent threat of drifting mines in the Southwest Black Sea. The report follows the deactivation of a fourth unsophisticated drifting mine near the Island of Kefken in the Southwest Black Sea,” the MSTA added. In its previous MSTA, Dryad Global outlined that a total of three mines had been identified and neutralized within the north and western Black Sea. Mines that had been discovered were understood to be old Soviet-era contact mines of low sophistication, the MSTA highlighted. “Whilst Ukraine and Russia dispute responsibility for the presence of sea mines, coastal states are conducting mine surveillance activity and seeking to ensure safe passage,” the previous MSTA noted.
Ukraine accuses Russia of chemical weapons attack in Mariupol - Ukrainian forces and officials have accused Russia of dropping chemical weapons on the port city of Mariupol, causing troops and civilians alike to develop respiratory illnesses. “Russian occupation forces used a poisonous substance of unknown origin against Ukrainian military and civilians in the city of Mariupol, which was dropped from an enemy [unmanned aerial vehicle],” the Azoz Regiment, a unit of the National Guard of Ukraine, posted to Telegram on Monday. “The victims have respiratory failure, vestibulo-atactic syndrome.” The Pentagon could not confirm the social media reports that Russian forces had deployed a potential chemical weapon, but said it is aware of the claims. “These reports, if true, are deeply concerning and reflective of concerns that we have had about Russia’s potential to use a variety of riot control agents, including tear gas mixed with chemical agents, in Ukraine,” press secretary John Kirby said in a statement, adding that the Defense Department will continue to monitor the situation closely. Ukrainian officials also reported the attack over social media. “ATTENTION! Chemical weapons are used against Ukrainian defenders in #Mariupol! russia openly crosses all boundaries of humanity and openly declares it,” Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs, wrote on Twitter. The reports, if accurate, would mark an escalation in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since it began on Feb. 24.
Why prosecuting Russian war crimes in Ukraine could be complicated - - The Russian military, in retreat after defeat in the cities around Ukraine’s capital, left behind such horror that war crimes investigators are likely to be kept busy for months, if not years. Bodies were strewn across the northern countryside, including Bucha, where city officials said at least 400 civilians were killed, with more than 260 buried in mass graves. Dozens were found on the streets outside their homes, their hands bound, with some shot in the head. In Mariupol, Russian forces allegedly fired indiscriminately and used bombs to level an art school where some 400 civilians were sheltering. WHO has verified 64 attacks on health facilities. War is cruel, but international humanitarian law experts say the atrocities emerging from Ukraine are not how modern conflict is supposed to look. The International Criminal Court prosecutor has already started an investigation and the French Interior Ministry of Justice has sent doctors and more than a dozen crime scene investigators to Ukraine to collect evidence for possible war crimes charges. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other leaders have said what the Russians are doing in Ukraine amounts to war crimes. Last month, the U.S. embassy in Kyiv called it a war crime to attack a nuclear plant. Now, the United States, Ukraine and the United Kingdom are investigating reports of alleged chemical attacks in Mariupol, bolstering evidence of possible war crimes if confirmed. “What is happening in Bucha is outrageous and everyone sees it,” President Joe Biden said last week amid the Bucha revelations. “It is a war crime.” But war crimes cases are notoriously difficult to prove and prosecute. Even with the right evidence and eyewitness accounts, the murder of civilians by Russian forces may not present a clear cut case. The international legal basis for prosecution is not universally accepted, and context, intent and often geopolitics matter. War crimes have often been too slippery to stick, with obvious offenders sometimes escaping conviction. And because of these complications, the accused can wait decades to face any form of justice. Here’s a look at the challenges facing prosecutors in search of justice in Ukraine. To understand what makes a war crime, it’s important to know the laws of war. Those rules, collectively known as international humanitarian law, stem from international treaties that have aimed to find the balance between military necessity and the protection of human life. Our general understanding of what makes a war crime is essentially whether there have been “grave” breaches of the Geneva Conventions, which were established in the aftermath of World War II to ensure that civilians caught in the midst of war and combatants who could no longer fight were protected. A grave breach would include wilful killing, serious injury and torture, as well as legal and humanitarian failings, such as depriving a prisoner of war to a fair trial, excessive demolition to populated urban centers and taking hostages. And while a war crime is an egregious violation that goes against the agreed upon principles of warfare, experts note the legal definition has been elusive in prosecution. While targeting civilians in a conflict zone would constitute a war crime, civilians dying as part of an armed conflict may fall short of that bar. Legal scholars note proportionality also falls into war crimes consideration: that while civilian casualties can and do happen in conflict, there is an obligation by combatants to ensure the toll is not excessive in relation to the military advantage anticipated. “Very often, militaries will make arguments that they were primarily going against military targets, that they didn’t expect that the incidental loss of civilian life would be so high, there was an intelligence error or technical mistake, or that there was information on combatants and fighters being present,” said Ioannis Kalpouzos, a Harvard law professor and co-founder of the Global Legal Action Network. “This information is not necessarily easy to disprove and has led to significant difficulties in bringing such cases [to the courts].” A case that’s been elevated could land at the ICC, which examines allegations in three core areas: genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. What separates a war crime from these other gross violations is that the offense has to have happened during an armed conflict — not its causes or post-war fallout — and that the acts in question are directly correlated to the war.
Putin and Lukashenko describe Bucha killings as ‘fake’ and ‘staged by Englishmen’ – Russian President Vladimir Putin called the mass killing of civilians in Bucha “fake” and praised Russia’s “noble” war against Ukraine during a visit to eastern Russia with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Tuesday. “When it comes to Bucha … it’s the exact same fake as in Syria,” Putin said, in reference to Russian claims from 2018 that the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian war was staged by foreign agents. Bucha was “a psychological operation staged by Englishmen,” Lukashenko added.After Russian troops partially withdrew from Bucha, a town outside of Kyiv, earlier this month, authorities discovered roads lined with civilians apparently tied up and shot at close range, as well as mass graves of local residents. Russia has repeatedly denied it was responsible, but numerous media outlets have independently shown that it was unlikely the scenes were staged by Ukraine. The Russian president was on a joint visit with the Belarusian premier to the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s far east to celebrate “Space Day” and discuss the two countries’ space industries.
Russia installs new general as it prepares next move -- Western nations along with Ukraine are bracing for more brutality following Russia’s reported appointment of a new general to oversee the Kremlin’s attack on the former Soviet country. Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov, 60, who had commanded Russia’s southern military district, led crushing military operations in Ukraine’s Donbas region and in Syria, which resulted in the massacres of tens of thousands of civilians – a brutal past that U.S. officials say may show its face in Ukraine in the coming weeks. The newly installed general comes as the Kremlin, now 46 days into its invasion, appears to have switched focus to the eastern part of Ukraine following failed attempts to topple the government in Kyiv. “He and other senior Russian leaders . . . have shown clearly in the past their disregard for avoiding civilian harm, their utter disregard in many ways for the laws of war, laws of armed conflict, and the brutality with which they conduct their operations,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said of Dvornikov on Monday. “I think, sadly, we can all expect that the same brutal tactics, that same disregard for civilian life and civilian infrastructure, will probably continue as they now focus in a more geographically confined area in the Donbas.” Known as the “Butcher of Syria,” Dvornikov was the first head of Russia’s military operations in the country after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops there in September 2015 to back Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In Syria, Dvornikov was part of a military campaign that bombed and razed densely populated neighborhoods in Aleppo, the country’s largest city, in which chemical weapons were used and banned cluster munitions were dropped by both the Russian and Syrian militaries. Since 2016, Dvornikov has been the commander of Russia’s southern military district, responsible for the fighting in Donbas prior to the current invasion of Ukraine which began on Feb. 24. A violent turn:Still, Dvornikov’s reputation has top U.S. officials worried that the war will take a particularly violent turn and become far worse than what’s already been seen.
Key Russian warship suffers explosion - Ukrainian forces on Thursday claimed to have struck the Moskva, seriously damaging what’s known as the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The heavily damaged ship appears to be another blow to Moscow, which has struggled in its invasion of Ukraine that began Feb. 24. Maksym Marchenko, the governor of the Odesa region, said two Neptune missiles struck the ship, according to The Associated Press. Russia later acknowledged that the entire crew of the Moskva — which can carry 500 sailors — was forced to evacuate due to an overnight fire. Russia’s Defense Ministry did not mention an attack, only that ammunition on board detonated as a result of a fire, “seriously” damaging the ship. Russia’s defense ministry later said that the Moskva sunk while it was being towed to port, according to the BBC. Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said the U.S. can’t confirm that the ship was hit by a Ukrainian missile. However, he said Washington believes there was a “significant explosion” on the ship that caused a fire. Kirby said that Washington further assesses that “at least some” of the crew had been evacuated from the ship and were placed aboard other ships. After failing to take the capital of Kyiv, Kremlin forces have retreated from much of the north and are now trying to regroup for a renewed offensive in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for more weapons from the U.S. and NATO to help force back the Russian invasion. The Biden administration responded to that call on Wednesday when it announced another $800 million in military aid to the country.
Nations brace for new Russian general with brutal past - in the coming weeks. The newly installed general comes as the Kremlin, now 46 days into its invasion, appears to have switched focus to the eastern part of Ukraine following failed attempts to topple the government in Kyiv. “He and other senior Russian leaders … have shown clearly in the past their disregard for avoiding civilian harm, their utter disregard in many ways for the laws of war, laws of armed conflict, and the brutality with which they conduct their operations,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said of Dvornikov on Monday. “I think, sadly, we can all expect that the same brutal tactics, that same disregard for civilian life and civilian infrastructure, will probably continue as they now focus in a more geographically confined area in the Donbas.” Known as the “Butcher of Syria,” Dvornikov was the first head of Russia’s military operations in the country after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops there in September 2015 to back Syrian President Bashar Assad. In Syria, Dvornikov was part of a military campaign that bombed and razed densely populated neighborhoods in Aleppo, the country’s largest city, in which chemical weapons were used and banned cluster munitions were dropped by both the Russian and Syrian militaries.
Russia is poised for a bond default that could unleash years of courtroom chaos. A debt expert breaks down what happens next. -Russia has come closer to a default on its foreign-currency bonds than at any time since 1918, after the US Treasury banned the government from making dollar payments using American banks.Russia failed to make $650 million of bond payments on Monday. Instead, it transferred the money to its National Settlement Depository in rubles, despite the contracts demanding payment in dollars.A default would likely unleash a long and complex battle between bondholders and the Russian state, although the Ukraine war and Western sanctions complicate matters.Those bondholders are not just swashbuckling hedge funds. Retail investors are exposed to Russian debt — often through giant firms such as BlackRock — as are pension funds. Asset-manager capitalism is being tested by war.Mitu Gulati, a law professor at the University of Virginia, is a world expert on sovereign debt. He told Insider the situation is a "giant mess" that could result in years of "litigation chaos." Here, he gives his thoughts on what might happen next. The interview has been edited for clarity.
Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin insists Russia had 'no choice' but to invade Ukraine as he announces lunar probe -Russia "had no other choice" than to invade Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has said. In a rare public appearance since his forces invaded Ukraine in February, Russia's president said the "special military operation" was launched to protect civilians in the predominately Russian-speaking Donbas.Thwarted in his apparent ambition to overrun the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Mr Putin is now building up forces for a new offensive in the eastern Donbas region, and insisted that his campaign would continue until it achieved its goals.He also announced Russia would launch a lunar probe later this year.On a visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome spaceport in Russia's Far East on the 61st anniversary of Yuri Gagarin becoming the first man in space, Mr Putin recalled Soviet successes and said sanctions would not slow it down.Inflation and rising food and petrol prices in the West would also begin to put pressure on politicians there, he said - adding that "time" would put everything in its proper place.One of his few remaining allies, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, was with Mr Putin as he promised to work more closely with Belarus on space infrastructure and technology.The Russian leader's public appearances have been limited recently.Addressing the war in public for the first time since his forces retreated from northern Ukraine, he said Russia had to fight and defend the Russian speakers of eastern Ukraine.Asked by space agency workers if the operation in Ukraine would achieve its goals, Mr Putin said: "Absolutely. I don't have any doubt at all.""Its goals are absolutely clear and noble," the president said. "There is no doubt that the goals will be achieved." Speaking about the West's crippling sanctions imposed on Russia over the invasion, he added: "That Blitzkrieg on which our foes were counting did not work."The penalties include restrictions on scientific funding and cooperation.Once the offensive began on 24 February, Mr Putin mostly confined himself to TV appearances, which he has used to praise the Russian military and claim everything was going to plan, despite ample evidence to the contrary. Last Friday, he laid a wreath at the funeral of the ultranationalist Russian politician, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, reportedly accompanied by an aide carrying Russia's nuclear weapons codes, or its so-called "nuclear football".
Vladimir Putin Says He Was Forced To Invade Ukraine: 'No Other Choice' - Russian President Vladimir Putin has said his country had "no other choice" but to invade Ukraine and that what he has called a "special military operation" was aimed at saving people in the Donbas region.Thousands of people have been killed and more than four million have fled as refugees since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February, prompting sweeping Western sanctions and accusations of genocide and other war crimes, which Russia has denied.Putin made his remarks while attending an awards ceremony at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the far east of the country on Tuesday morning. He went on to defend Russia's goals in Ukraine."Its goals are absolutely clear and noble," the Russian president said. Putin said that "we had no other choice" except to take military action against Ukraine and "there is no doubt that we will achieve our goals.""On the one hand, we are helping and saving people, and on the other, we are simply taking measures to ensure the security of Russia itself," Putin said.His comments come amid specific concerns for the city of Mariupol, with Russian forces apparently poised to launch a major offensive. The governments of the U.K. and Australia have said they are investigating unconfirmed reports that Russian forces may have used chemical agents in attacks on Mariupol.In his remarks on Tuesday, Putin went on to say: "They were deliberately fostering these neo-Nazi grassroots, and their clash with the Russian forces was inevitable."They were simply biding their time for an attack, and the ensuing events demonstrated how deep these roots go. The neo-Nazism became a fact of life for our neighboring country. It was a matter of time," the Russian president said.Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas region have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014 and the Russian government recognized the self-proclaimed People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk before launching its invasion on February 24.
Russian students are turning in teachers who don’t back the war— When Irina Gen’s students in western Russia asked why a European sports competition had barred them from attending, the 55-year-old teacher let loose with a tirade against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia's war in Ukraine. “So long as Russia doesn’t behave itself in a civilized way, this will go on forever,” she fumed, adding that she endorsed the European ban. Russia “wanted to get to Kyiv, to overthrow Zelensky and the government. This is a sovereign state,” she said. “There’s a sovereign government there.” Little did she know that her students were recording her outburst and that a copy would make its way to law enforcement, who opened a criminal investigation March 30 under a new national law banning false information about the military. Gen is one of at least four teachers recently turned in by students or parents for antiwar speech, in some of the starkest examples of the government’s quest to identify and punish individuals who criticize the invasion.
China Is Accelerating Its Nuclear Buildup Over Rising Fears of U.S. Conflict - Beijing believes U.S. could turn to nuclear weapons in a war; Ukraine invasion underscores the value of a robust arsenal. China has accelerated an expansion of its nuclear arsenal because of a change in its assessment of the threat posed by the U.S., people with knowledge of the Chinese leadership’s thinking say, shedding new light on a buildup that is raising tension between the two countries. The Chinese nuclear effort long predates Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the U.S.’s wariness about getting directly involved in the war there has likely reinforced Beijing’s decision to put greater emphasis on developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent, some of these people say. Chinese leaders see a stronger nuclear arsenal as a way to deter the U.S. from getting directly involved in a potential conflict over Taiwan.
Shanghai’s Tesla Factory Could Be Shuttered Until Mid-May -With all of the chaos taking place in Shanghai as a result of a new round of mysteriously overbearing Covid lockdowns, there has been very little attention paid to Tesla's current plant shut down and the effect it may have on the company's operating results. But analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research is forcing that issue into the spotlight, writing in a note to clients on Monday that on the ground contacts are telling his firm that Shanghai may be closed for a prolonged amount of time. "In discussions last evening with one of our on-the-ground contacts in China, we were told TSLA’s Shanghai plant will be down until 'at least' mid-May (and not fully-ramped up until 'late 3Q22’ – yes, you heard that right)," Johnson wrote. He continued: "More specifically, our Shanghai contact says due to TSLA’s plant: (a) being a non critical factory (i.e., not food, medicine and military), and (b) mixing people from multiple districts, which is strictly forbidden because then every district would have to go on lockdown, it will not be given priority vs. other more critical plants." Johnson told clients he did not think that the closure had been priced into the company's stock or models: "More to the above, in our conversations this evening, our contact, who is a supplier to TSLA, expressed their view that it will take 2-to-3 days to fully re-ramp the factory for each day it is closed. Consequently, in short, with the Street modeling TSLA’s sales/EPS growing from $17.8bn/$2.72 in 1Q22 to $19.597bn/$2.50 in 2Q22, we DO NOT believe this news is priced in (our contact believes TSLA could lose money in 2Q22 vs. the current Consensus est. that they will deliver $2.50/shr in EPS [or $2.873bn in net income])." GLJ's contact in China, when asked if the factory will close longer than just through the end of April, said: "Yes, it will shut for a minimum of 4-6 more weeks and most likely at least June 1 absent recession of the Dynamic Zero Covid policy. I also expect re-ramp to take 2-3 days for every day the factory is closed. So a closure through May won’t have Shanghai back to full production until late Q3. It’s a non critical factory (food, medicine and military) and mixing people from multiple districts is strictly forbidden because then every district would have to go on lockdown. My best case estimate for Q1 production is 190k. And that’s based on a mid May open. I fully expect the quarter to come on around 160k and be a loss.”
US calls for nonessential staff at Shanghai Consulate to leave amid COVID spike -The State Department has called for the “voluntary departure” of nonessential U.S. Consulate General Shanghai employees and their families as COVID-19 cases in the area surge. An announcement posted Monday by the U.S. Mission to China said the decision was “due to the surge in COVID-19 cases and impact of restrictions related to the implementation of public health response measures.” It noted that the voluntary authorization for the employees and their relatives to leave was issued on Friday. “While the Consulate General remains closed to the public due to local COVID-19 control measures, it will remain staffed and continue to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in need,” the announcement added. Shanghai has issued harsh coronavirus-related lockdowns that have left residents frustrated and struggling to access necessities such as food, according to multiple reports. Now, more than 25 million people in the city have been forced to remain indoors after a complete lockdown was implemented on April 5 as part of China’s “zero tolerance” COVID-19 strategy. Video footage posted to social media showed residents in the city screaming out of their high-rise apartments, anxious to leave the severe lockdown. On Monday, officials announced that areas would loosen the lockdown to allow for “appropriate activity” in neighborhoods without COVID-19 cases. But Shanghai reported more than 25,000 new COVID-19 asymptomatic infections on Sunday,according to Reuters.
Speculating About the Botched Shanghai Lockdown by Yves Smith - From the tea leaves I can read, China has no intention of backing down on its zero Covid policy. Since Covid containment and lockdowns are the responsibility of municipal and regional governments, the slow implementation of the lockdown, which has led to an embarrassing and potentially dangerous num and even worse, Shanghai citizens suffering unnecessarily due to a failure to organize adequate food provision and emergency medical care to the quarantined is a huge administrative failure. But it is Shanghai’s failure. And that raises the interesting question of what the Xi regime will do about it. Shanghai is so big and so West-connected that it was hard to imagine word of what was happening not getting out. For instance, via -email last week: Wife has been in touch with multiple of her old classmates in Shanghai. This is apparently not going well at all in Shanghai. Many of her friends are reporting all kinds of elderly family members starving and dying of medical neglect in their homes. If you are going to have a lockdown you should provide food and care, this is apparently not being done at all. She has shown me dozens of videos of random people having meltdowns in the street. Unlike last year, the PLA is nowhere to be found to arrest them. The angst is growing exponentially by the hour. It does not help that the leaders of Shanghai have been caught on film living it up in Beijing and other places. My wife informs me that Xi has hated these leaders for a long time. And this may very well be used for their execution. Yesterday, in Links, Lambert featured several tweets about Shanghai, including some by Eric Feigl-Ding, including of hungry Shanghai citizens arguing with police and the police admitting they didn’t have good answers, particularly about where to get food even if they were let loose.
Xi stands by zero-COVID approach despite public anger: ‘Persistence is victory’ Chinese President Xi Jinping said the country will stick to its zero-COVID-19 approach despite the backlash it has received from sweeping lockdowns in its industrial hub Shanghai. China has been aiming to have no COVID-19 cases by completely shutting down areas when even a small number of cases are detected, even as most countries employ strategies to live with the virus. “Persistence is victory. It is necessary to adhere to the people first and life first,” Xi said, according to state media outlet Xinhua News Agency. “It is necessary to overcome paralyzing thoughts, war weariness, fluke mentality, and slack mentality, improve scientific and precise prevention and control skills, improve various emergency plans, strictly implement normalized prevention and control measures, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development in view of the new characteristics of virus mutation,” he added. The comments come as millions in Shanghai were locked in their homes for weeks due to COVID-19, with only some allowed out on Tuesday. However, those who were allowed outside were restricted to their own neighborhoods. China has been censoring complaints from citizens in the city who have been running out of food during the lockdowns. China was reporting a seven-day average of nearly 25,000 cases of COVID-19 nationwide as of Wednesday, after going months with hundreds or fewer cases per day.
Financial Times Screeches at China’s “Propaganda” for Sticking to Zero Covid Policy by Yves Smith --It’s sobering to see multiple examples every day in the press that those in the West who fancy themselves as in charge have lost their minds, drunk on arrogance and provincialism. Today’s example is a new story in the Financial Times that berates China (although as you will see “berates” is too mild a word) for daring to stick to its zero Covid policy. Worse, the pink paper depicts China’s policy as “propaganda” as opposed to “policy”.You can see I am not making this up: […]It’s painful to have to make obvious points: since when does the UK have a vote on how China conducts its internal affairs? And the health of its citizens is an internal affair. The fact that all sorts of Western companies located manufacturing operations their or contract for essential components or inputs was a business decision. In the early 2000s, I though it was crazy for any non-Chinese company to invest in China due to the risk of expropriation (which actually has happened quite a lot, just not in the way I envisaged, via intellectual property theft). So for US and European companies and their media lackeys go into a meltdown over their excessive commercial exposure to a country that does not prioritize profit the way they do is rich.Now it would be one thing if the Financial Times has a factual anchor, say that the number of infections in Shanghai made it pretty much mathematically impossible, to get Covid back down to a really low level, and hence Chinese officials were fighting a clearly losing battle. In fact, the one bit of hard information the article contained potentially showed the reverse, that the Shanghai lockdowns were starting to tamp down on the infection trajectory:And it mentions that new infections on Wednesday, 27,719, were only slightly higher than the Tuesday count of 26,330The article itself is largely a flabby whinge with anecdata about how the lockdowns are too costly:On Thursday, China’s official Xinhua news agency published an article warning that the country’s medical system risked “breaking down” in the event of a mass Covid outbreak. It echoed President Xi Jinping’s comments on Wednesday calling for citizens to “overcome complacency” in “response to the virus’s mutation”….Beijing’s decision to enhance its lockdown measures to fight the spread of the highly infectious but milder Omicron variant stands in marked contrast to most of the rest of the world, which is learning to live with the virus.Ah, but what about the subhead, “Healthcare official says Beijing’s coronavirus prevention policy is ‘not viable’”? That “healthcare official” is a single unnamed nobody:The official, who did not want to be named, said: “From a medical standpoint, I don’t think the zero-Covid policy is viable any more. Shanghai is running out of medical professionals to measure test results and beds to accommodate patients.
Thailand risks 50,000 daily cases after Songkran Festival super-spreader --Last Thursday, the Thai Public Health Ministry forecast a surge of 50,000 cases following the opening of the annual Songkran festival the previous day. This acknowledgement is all the more damning, given that the government is in the process of officially declaring COVID-19 to be “endemic”—a code word for letting it rip through the population. The Public Health Ministry report estimates that the daily number of patients suffering lung inflammation could reach 3,000, with about 900 requiring ventilation and as many as 150 dying each day. These numbers could almost double, it stated, if current health precautions were only sparingly implemented. The Songkran festival, which marks the Thai New Year, risks worsening the spread of COVID as large numbers of people travel and take part in social gatherings. Of particular concern are the dangers to unvaccinated sections of the population, including both the elderly and children. Dr. Sumanee Wacharasint, director of the Bureau of Risk Communication and Health Behaviour Development, reported last Wednesday that only 34.6 percent of the population has received their booster shot, including 37.2 percent of the elderly. For the 5–11 age group, less than 50 percent were reported to have received their first vaccine dose and less than 2 percent their second. Only seven of the 77 provinces have achieved a 70 percent target of booster shots for the elderly, including Samut Prakan, Nonthaburi, Maha Sarakham, Nan, Phuket, Lamphun and Chainat. The Royal College of Physicians, the Preventive Medicine Association of Thailand, the Thai Society of Critical Care Medicine, the Thoracic Society of Thailand and the Infectious Disease Association of Thailand are all urging the population to get booster shots ahead of the expected surge in infections. The government is doing the opposite. It is lulling people into a false sense of security by announcing the implementation by July of its unscientific program of declaring COVID-19 “endemic,” along with the dismantling of COVID public health restrictions. Daily cases are currently at all-time highs with 26,081 cases reported last Thursday morning along with 91 deaths. The Worldometer ranks Thailand 10th in terms of cases, while the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) classifies it as “very high” risk.
Coronavirus pandemic pushed 77M into ‘extreme poverty’: UN --The coronavirus pandemic pushed 77 million people into extreme poverty last year, according to a new report from the United Nations (U.N.) released on Tuesday.The 208-page report from the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs also says 1 in 5 developing countries will not see a gross domestic product return to 2019 levels within the next year. Debt has also increased, and the poorest developing countries are paying about 14 percent of revenue on average to pay it off, compared to 3.5 percent for developed countries. U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed said in a statement that the findings were “alarming” for the world.“There is no excuse for inaction at this defining moment of collective responsibility, to ensure hundreds of millions of people are lifted out of hunger and poverty,” Mohammed said. “We must invest in access for decent and green jobs, social protection, healthcare and education leaving no one behind.” After more than two years of the pandemic, the novel coronavirus is still raging across the globe despite some relief in the U.S., with Hong Kong battling off a deadly new wave of COVID-19. The pandemic has exposed disparities and erected barriers beyond the economy, including in the health care system. Wealthier countries, including the U.S. and China, have vaccinated most of their populations, while lower-income countries are still struggling with low vaccination rates. The World Health Organization has repeatedly urged countries to ship more vaccines to lower-income countries, saying that achieving a global vaccination rate of 70 percent would likely end the pandemic. Tuesday’s U.N. report said the ongoing war in Ukraine will also exacerbate high energy prices and supply chain disruptions, which will only worsen the financial outlook for developing countries.
Biometric Surveillance Systems Are Being Hastily Rolled Out Across the West, With Next to No Public Debate --The Chinese Communist Party’s widespread use of facial recognition programs and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to track, monitor and, where possible, evaluate the behavior of members of the public has received ample attention from Western media in the past few years. Myriad reports, some overblown, have been published on China’s creeping introduction of a Social Credit System. By contrast, far less attention has been paid to the increasing use of many of the same highly intrusive technologies by so-called “liberal democracies” in the West. In 2019, IHS Markit released a report showing that while China may be leading the way when it comes to using surveillance cameras to monitor its population, it is far from an outlier. According to the report, the United States had almost as many surveillance cameras as China, with roughly one for every 4.6 people (compared with China’s one for every 4.1). The UK was not far behind with one for every 6.5. The report also forecast that by 2021 there would be more than one billion surveillance cameras on the planet watching us. Now the EU is on the verge of building one of the largest facial recognition systems on planet Earth, as reports the recent Wired UK article, Europe Is Building a Huge, International Facial Recognition System: The expansion of facial recognition across Europe is included in wider plans to “modernize” policing across the continent, and it comes under the Prüm II data-sharing proposals. The details were first announced in December, but criticism from European data regulators has gotten louder in recent weeks, as the full impact of the plans have been understood. “What you are creating is the most extensive biometric surveillance infrastructure that I think we will ever have seen in the world,” says Ella Jakubowska, a policy adviser at the civil rights NGO European Digital Rights (EDRi). Documents obtained by EDRi under freedom of information laws and shared with WIRED reveal how nations pushed for facial recognition to be included in the international policing agreement.
Pakistan’s embattled PM ousted in no-confidence vote(AP) — Pakistan’s political opposition ousted the country’s embattled prime minister in a no confidence vote on Saturday, which they won after several of Imran Khan’s allies and a key coalition party deserted him. The combined opposition that spans the political spectrum from the left to the radically religious will form the new government, with the head of one of the largest parties, the Pakistani Muslim League, taking over as prime minister. Anticipating his loss, Khan, who charged his opposition colluded with the United States to unseat him, has called on his supporters to stage rallies nationwide on Sunday. Khan’s options are limited and should he see a big turnout in his support, he may try to keep the momentum of street protests as a way to pressure Parliament to hold early elections. Khan earlier had tried to sidestep the vote by dissolving Parliament and calling early elections but a Supreme Court ruling ordered the vote to go ahead. In an impassioned speech Friday, Khan doubled down on his accusations that his opponents colluded with the United States to unseat him over his foreign policy choices, which often seemed to favor China and Russia and defied the U.S. Khan said Washington opposed his Feb. 24 meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin hours after tanks rolled into Ukraine, launching a devastating war in the heart of Europe. The U.S. State Department has denied any involvement in Pakistan’s internal politics. Deputy State Department spokeswoman Jalina Porter told reporters on Friday there was “absolutely no truth to these allegations.” Still, Khan urged his supporters to take to the streets, particularly the youth who have been the backbone of his support since the former cricket star turned conservative Islamist politician came to power in 2018. He said they needed to protect Pakistan’s sovereignty and oppose U.S. dictations. “You have to come out to protect your own future. It is you who have to protect your democracy, your sovereignty and your independence. … This is your duty,” he said. “I will not accept an imposed government.” Khan’s options are limited and should he see a big turnout in support, he may try to keep the momentum of street protests as a way to pressure Parliament to dissolve and go to early elections. The no-confidence vote loss for Khan may bring to power some unlikely partners. Among them is a radically religious party that runs scores of religious schools. The Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam, or Assembly of Clerics, teaches a deeply conservative brand of Islam in its schools. Many of Afghanistan’s Taliban and Pakistan’s own homegrown violent Taliban graduated from JUI schools.
Victor Orbán wins fourth election victory, remains Hungarian prime minister --Victor Orbán remains head of the Hungarian government. His right-wing Fidesz party won the parliamentary elections on Sunday for the fourth time in a row.With 53 percent of the vote, Fidesz did much better than predicted, winning 135 of 199 parliamentary seats, and retaining a two-thirds majority in parliament. The opposition alliance “Hungary in Unity,” a coalition of six parties, fell far short of expectations with 35 percent.Also represented in parliament is the ultra-right party “Our Homeland,” which achieved 6 percent of the vote. And one mandate goes to the representative of the German minority. Voter turnout was around 70 percent, the same as in the last election four years ago.Orbán is not popular. He is responsible for countless social attacks and has built up an authoritarian system of rule over the past twelve years, restricting democratic rights and bringing the press into line.The class nature of his government has been particularly evident during the coronavirus pandemic, during which 45,510 people have died from the virus in Hungary. In relation to the size of population, only Bulgaria has more deaths in the EU.The health system is in a disastrous state. For this reason, the government banned doctors, nurses, and other hospital staff from giving press interviews as early as 2020. Critical journalists are not allowed to enter public hospitals. According to the European Health Care Systems Index (EHCI), Hungary ranks 33 out of 35 countries. At the beginning of March, the government lifted all coronavirus protections. At the same time, there has been no serious vaccination campaign. By the end of March, only 64.2 percent of the population in Hungary had been vaccinated twice.
Macron, neo-fascist Le Pen advance to runoff in French presidential election - In yesterday’s French presidential election, in a replay of the first round of the 2017 elections, outgoing President Emmanuel Macron and neo-fascist candidate Marine Le Pen advanced to the final round of the presidential contest on April 24. According to initial estimates last night, they received 27.4 percent and 24.0 percent of the vote, respectively. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the former Socialist Party official who was the candidate of the Unsubmissive France (LFI) party, obtained 21.6 percent of the vote.Mélenchon’s campaign manager, Manuel Bompard, issued a statement overnight calling Mélenchon’s vote “an extraordinary result,” but conceding, “unhappily, this will not be sufficient to qualify for the second round.”If these figures prove correct, it would be the third time, after the 2002 and 2017 elections, that a neo-fascist candidate advances to the runoff of the French presidential elections. The fact that voters are being presented yet again with a poisoned choice between Le Pen and the right-wing “president of the rich” exposes the political bankruptcy of the organizations that the ruling establishment falsely promotes as the “left.” They proved incapable of defeating either a despised outgoing president or a neo-fascist.The election confirmed the collapse of what were France’s dominant electoral parties in the era after the May 1968 French general strike. Valérie Pécresse of the right-wing The Republicans (LR), the latest incarnation of the Gaullists, and Socialist Party (PS) candidate Anne Hidalgo, representing France’s two main parties of government from 1968 to 2017, took 4.7 and 1.8 percent, respectively. Green candidate Yannick Jadot took 4.5 percent, and Stalinist French Communist Party (PCF) candidate Fabien Roussel 2.4 percent of the vote. All these candidates are now eliminated.Far-right journalist Eric Zemmour, who has been convicted of inciting racial hatred and is close to sections of the officer corps that agitated for a military coup after the COVID-19 pandemic began, took 7 percent of the vote.
What the French election reveals about young Euroskeptics – Are the oldies saving French President Emmanuel Macron? In stark contrast to Euroskeptic older voters pushing for Brexit in the U.K., it is the more elderly contingent in France who seem to have rallied behind the liberal pro-EU incumbent, while many younger voters backed radical left-winger Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen on the far right. The fact that Le Pen has, in the past, openly campaigned for the idea of France leaving the European Union and Mélenchon never hid his Euroskeptic leanings begs the question whether France’s youth has lost trust in the European project. A closer look at the age group breakdown of the first-round results, however, reveals a more nuanced picture. Here are eight charts that help explain voting behavior in the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday by age groups and what it means for the runoff election on April 24.
Students occupy Sorbonne University as anger mounts at French elections - On Wednesday afternoon, hundreds of students occupied the eastern wing of the Sorbonne University in the center of Paris. Students began the occupation after the Sorbonne administration took the anti-democratic decision to shut down an anti-fascist meeting and tried to lock out the students. The occupation is an initial expression of opposition to the dead end of the French presidential elections, which has become a contest between the “president of the rich” Emmanuel Macron and neo-fascist candidate Marine Le Pen. In May 1968, a general strike that brought the capitalist state to its knees was triggered by a violent police assault on students occupying the same historic university building. Now, meetings are being organized at several French universities for students to decide on what action to take in the coming days. The occupation arose from an anti-fascist meeting that was scheduled to be held in the university’s courtyard at 1:00 p.m. on Wednesday. Students taking part in the occupation told the WSWS that as people gathered to attend the meeting, the administration announced the meeting was not allowed to go ahead. Security guards then blocked off all entrances to the university, denying entry to hundreds of students. In response, those students who had managed to enter the Sorbonne building held a general assembly in a lecture hall. There it was decided by those present to initiate an occupation of the main building on campus. After the occupation began, large numbers of students outside the building continued to try to enter throughout the afternoon but were continuously blocked by security guards. By early evening, around 300 students remained in the eastern wing of the Sorbonne and began receiving supplies from supporters locked outside.
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