Fed's Mester casts doubt on the need for 'shock' interest rate hikes ahead --Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Friday she's in favor of raising interest rates quickly to bring down inflation, but not so quickly as to disrupt the economic recovery.That means a strong likelihood of backing a 50 basis point rate hike at the next Fed meeting and perhaps a few more after, but not going to 75 basis points, as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard suggested earlier this week. A basis point is 0.01 percentage points."My own view is we don't need to go there at this point," Mester said on CNBC's "Closing Bell" when asked by host Sara Eisen about the 75-basis-point move. "I'd rather be more deliberative and more intentional about what we're planning to do."Mester said she would like to see the Fed get its benchmark overnight borrowing rate to 2.5% by the end of this year, a rate that she and many Fed officials see as being "neutral," or neither stimulating nor repressing growth.The fed funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight borrowing, while also serving as a benchmark for many forms of consumer debt. It currently is set in a range between 0.25%-0.5%, following a quarter-percentage point increase in March."I would support at this point where the economy is a 50 basis point rise and maybe a few more to get to that 2.5% level by the end of the year," Mester said. "I think that's a better path. ... I kind of favor this methodical approach, rather than a shock of a 75 basis point [increase]. I don't think it's needed for what we're trying to do with our policy." Her comments mesh with what Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday.Though the statements from both officials also were in line with recent Fed communications, they coincided with a fresh round of selling on Wall Street in both stocks and bonds.Mester called the Fed's policy pivot from the historically high levels of accommodation during the pandemic era "the great recalibration of monetary policy.""We are trying to let the markets know where we see the economy going and why monetary policy needs to move off of that real extraordinary level of accommodation that was needed at the start of the pandemic," she said."Of course, our goal is to do that in a way that sustains the expansion and sustains healthy labor markets," Mester added.
Fed Chair Powell Telegraphs the Perfect Storm for Wall Street’s Megabanks: Rapid Rate Hikes Hitting $234 Trillion in Derivatives - By Pam and Russ Martens - The Federal Reserve (the Fed) sets monetary policy, including control of the benchmark short-term interest rate known as the Federal Funds rate, or in Wall Street jargon, the “Fed Funds” rate. This is a key rate because it signals the rate at which overnight loans are made between financial institutions and the direction of interest rates in general. Unfortunately, over time, the Fed has also been granted a supervisory role by Congress over Wall Street’s megabanks alongside its ability to bail them out when its crony brand of supervision fails.The convulsions the stock market experienced last Thursday and Friday, that investors will continue to witness in the days ahead, are inextricably tied to the failure of Congress to strip the Fed of a supervisory role over these global megabanks.There is no better snapshot of the Fed’s failure as a banking supervisor than this one fact that is called out every quarter in the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’sReport on Bank Trading and Derivative Activities. Table 14 of this report (see page 19) shows that the 25 largest bank holding companies in the U.S. are sitting on $234trillion notional (face amount) in derivatives but just five bank holding companies are responsible for $200.18 trillion of that exposure or 86 percent of the total. Those mega bank holding companies are: JPMorgan Chase (ticker JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC).The table also clearly shows that the most dangerous form of these derivatives – the same credit derivatives that blew up Wall Street in 2008 – are also concentrated at those same five bank holding companies. But here’s what this quarterly report – or any other federal supervisory report – does not tell the public. It does not provide the names of the financial institutions that are on the other side of those derivative bets. To ferret out those names, one has to do independent research and watch stock market action. (More on that in a moment.) Last Thursday, the delicate dance that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been doing with Wall Street’s ticking derivatives time bombs, out-of-control inflation, and the Fed’s tardiness in raising rates spilled out during a panel discussion moderated by CNBC news anchor Sara Eisen. The exchange that sent the stock market plunging went as follows between Eisen and Powell:
- Eisen: “The market has three 50 basis point hikes coming at the next three meetings as of this morning. Is that reasonable?”
- Powell: “So, I try not to comment on specific market pricing for things, but I will just say this: at our last meeting – and this was in the minutes of the meeting – many on the committee thought it would be appropriate for there to be one or more 50 basis point hikes.”
- Eisen: “Were you one of those people?”
- Powell: “I don’t disclose my own path. I try to lead the Committee. So, I think markets are processing what we’re saying; they’re reacting appropriately – generally. But I wouldn’t want to bless any particular market pricing. The thing I want to say, though, is we really are committed to using our tools to get 2 percent inflation back and I think, for example, if you look at the last tightening cycle, which was a two-year string of 25 basis point hikes from 2004 to 2006, inflation was a little over 3 percent. So inflation’s much higher now and our policy rate is still more accommodative than it was then. So it is appropriate in my view to be moving more quickly.“And I also think there’s something in the idea of front-end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. So that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table certainly.“We make these decisions at the meeting and we’ll make them meeting by meeting but I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.”
You can watch the full exchange at this link. The above back and forth between Eisen and Powell begins at 9:33 on the video.The mega banks that are known to have the bulk of the derivative exposure were hit hard in the selloff on Friday, as was the German global bank, Deutsche Bank, which is known to be a counterparty to derivatives on Wall Street.
Treasury tax season provides preview of Fed’s balance sheet unwind - The Treasury’s latest tax collection may preview how the shrinking of the Federal Reserve’s $9 trillion balance sheet, or quantitative tightening, will unfold for the markets and global liquidity. The influx of personal tax receipts pushed the amount of cash in the Treasury’s account at the central bank to $908 billion as of April 20, the most since May 2021, data show. The Treasury General Account, or TGA, operates like the government’s checking account at the Fed. When Treasury increases its cash balance, that’s on the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet, so as that goes up, it drains reserves from the system, and vice versa.As a result, outstanding bank reserve balances dropped by $466 billion in the week ended April 20, the largest weekly decline on record, Fed data show. “Even if the boost to TGA (and hence drain to reserves) was likely a one-off factor associated with year-end tax payments, some of which should now reverse, the medium-term trajectory remains clear: QT is likely to make the outlook for global liquidity for the rest of this year look much more like Q1 than like the spring break markets had been afforded in recent weeks,” Citigroup global markets strategist Matt King wrote in a note to clients. The Fed is expected to announce its plans for the balance sheet after unveiling more details in the minutes of the March gathering, likely next week. But it’s just as important how market players — including the Treasury — will respond to the Fed’s moves, and that remains a major unknown.One potential scenario is that it will be felt most acutely as a reduction in bank deposits and reserves, which could put upward pressure on repurchase agreement rates and borrowing benchmarks linked to them, like the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. That would mean an additional tightening of overall financial conditions in addition to the increase in the main fed funds rate target that the central bank intends to continue boosting. It could also hurt liquidity as well as create dislocations — and potentially trading opportunities — in different parts of the U.S. rates market, like futures and swap spreads.Meanwhile, if the Treasury chooses to lean more heavily on issuance of bills rather than longer-term debt to plug the funding gap that will emerge from the Fed stepping back, the amount of excess cash in short-term markets — much of which is currently parked at the central bank’s reverse repo facility — could dwindle. That could also potentially exert upward pressure across short-term interest rates.
BankThink: How the Fed's actions post-crisis have worsened inequality - There are a lot of ways to assess the extent to which the Federal Reserve has exacerbated economic inequality. Some opinions lean toward the polemical or even conspiratorial, while I chose a more analytical approach in my recent book, “Engine of Inequality.” The business journalist Christopher Leonard brings a unique perspective to this critical question — by focusing on the personal — in his new book, “The Lords of Easy Money.” Leonard’s book examines how the central bank’s policy of quantitative easing after the financial crisis worsened economic inequality in the U.S. It largely focuses on Tom Hoenig, who was then the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, opposing this monetary policy that pumped billions into the economy and encouraged bankers and others to make more risky loans. Leonard’s book is not only a compelling read, but also an important contribution to understanding what the Fed did over the last two cataclysmic crises and why those who needed the most help instead got the worst of it. To be sure, Leonard’s more personal approach unfortunately omits another important angle: the political. Thus, we don’t know if Leonard’s terrific insights might also tell us what needs to be done in light of this book’s revelations to right economic inequality in this country. As with any tale premised on the personal, “The Lords of Easy Money” relies on internal thoughts and scenes that Leonard could not have observed. The book opens with a compelling, but surely somewhat fictional, description of Hoenig waking up in a Washington, D.C., hotel room, dressing and presumably squaring his shoulders to gird for battle opposing quantitative easing in 2010. As captivating as some of these details may be, it’s not entirely clear that it adds much to our understanding of the effects of Fed policy. Does one need to read about the time Hoenig spent in his youth working at his father’s plumbing-supply company to appreciate the important insights he has brought over the years to the Federal Open Market Committee?
Senate advances Brainard to final confirmation vote - The Senate on Monday advanced President Biden’s nominee to serve as the Federal Reserve Board’s number two, teeing her up for final confirmation votes as soon as this week. Senators voted 54-40 to end debate on Lael Brainard’s nomination to be Fed vice chair, with several Republicans crossing party lines to support her nomination. Brainard, a Democrat, has served on the Fed board since 2014 after a stint with the Treasury Department during the Obama administration. Biden nominated her to serve as the Fed’s number two in November, defying pressure from progressives to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell with Brainard. If confirmed, Brainard would be just the second woman to serve as Fed vice chair since the modern central bank was established in 1914. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was the first woman to serve as Fed vice chair, the first woman to serve as Fed chief and the first woman to lead Treasury. The Senate appears to be on track to confirm Brainard and four of Biden’s five nominees to the Fed as soon as the end of the week. Along with Brainard, the Senate is expected to confirm Powell for another term as Fed chair and Davidson College professor Philip Jefferson to serve as a Fed governor. Lisa Cook, an economics professor at Michigan State University and a former member of the Obama White House Council of Economic Advisors, has received resounding support from Democratic lawmakers and academic economists. But Republican lawmakers have unanimously opposed her nomination to be a member of the Fed board, arguing her research and advocacy are out of line with the Fed’s mandate.Senators also voted 50-49 last week to advance Cook’s nomination to the full chamber after the Senate Banking Committee deadlocked on whether to support her confirmation. While a nominee must usually be approved by a Senate committee before a confirmation vote, Senate Democrats and Republicans struck a deal to allow either party leader to bring up nominees for votes in the Senate even if the committee deadlocks. If all Republicans attend Cook’s final confirmation vote and unite against her, she will need the unanimous support of all Senate Democrats and a tiebreaking vote from Vice President Harris to join the central bank.
Senate confirms Lael Brainard as Fed vice chair - The U.S. Senate on Tuesday confirmed Lael Brainard to be the Federal Reserve's next vice chair, a long-awaited step in her ascent to the highest ranks of the nation's central bank that cements her position as a key deputy to Chair Jerome Powell. Though the vote came down to a close 52-43 margin, her confirmation was unsurprising. Brainard won support from Democrats and a handful of Republicans, including Wyoming Sen. Cynthia Lummis. The vote proved tighter than expected because both Sens. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., and Ron Wyden, D-Ore., tested positive for Covid-19 and were unable to offer their formal support. VIDEO00:50 Senate confirms Lael Brainard as Federal Reserve vice chair Brainard's promotion, expected for weeks, is unlikely to change the Fed's plan to increase short-term interest rates. She has served on the central bank's board for years. Brainard, Powell and other central bank officials have promised over the past few months to hike interest rates and otherwise pull back on monetary stimulus to stop prices from rising at their current pace.
Manchin praises Barr as nominee for Fed bank supervision post - Joe Manchin, a key Democrat in the U.S. Senate, said he’s spoken to Michael Barr, President Joe Biden’s choice to be the U.S. Federal Reserve chief banking supervisor, and so far doesn’t see a problem with his nomination. “Michael Barr seems to be very solid,” Manchin told reporters. “I’ve talked to him one time; I’m going to meet with him.” The West Virginian, whose vote is critical in the 50-50 Senate, opposed Sarah Bloom Raskin, Biden’s first pick for the job, over her advocacy for climate regulations. She then withdrew her name from consideration.
Fed nominees to wait until ailing Democrats return, Brown says - Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown said Wednesday that the Senate would wait to confirm President Biden’s Federal Reserve picks until the return of Democrats recovering from the coronavirus. Brown, an Ohio Democrat, blocked votes this week on a second term for Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve and the nomination of Philip Jefferson to the Fed’s board of governors after top Banking Republican Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania refused on Tuesday to postpone a procedural vote on the nomination of Lisa Cook as a governor. Efforts to combat inflation are popping up in different ways on Capitol Hill as the House and Senate return following a two-week recess. Brown said there is “no doubt” all three will eventually be confirmed. He added that he had offered to allow votes on Powell and Jefferson, who have broad bipartisan support, if Toomey would have extended the courtesy of delaying the Cook vote until Democrats ill with COVID-19 could attend, “and not try and nick her and hit her like he’s done,” but Toomey refused. “I just look at their pattern of behavior on these Fed noms,” he said, referring to Senate Republicans. “They’ve done all they can to criticize, undermine, to try to damage their reputations and it’s outrageous.” Toomey said Tuesday that Democrats had refused to offer Republicans a similar courtesy when one of their senators was sick with COVID-19 and they were trying to confirm Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve. He took umbrage at Brown’s suggestion that it might have something to do with Cook being a Black woman. Shelton was not confirmed. “Naysayers,” Brown said in a speech Tuesday, “absurdly claim that Lisa Cook doesn’t meet the standards for this position, standards that seem to apply only to certain nominees who happen to be women, particularly Black women.” Democrats this week are short the votes of Sens. Ron Wyden of Oregon and Connecticut’s Chris Murphy as well as the tiebreaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris because of positive COVID-19 test results. All three would be needed to confirm Cook given uniform GOP opposition in the 50-50 Senate.
Toomey's quest to end Fed 'mission creep' could have bipartisan legs Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., wants to reform the Federal Reserve Banks if it’s the last thing he does as an elected official. And he very well may succeed. The ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee, who will not seek reelection this fall, has made it a priority for his final months in office to rein in what he describes as “mission creep” within the Fed’s 12 regional banks. To counter what he and other conservatives see as a budding partisan streak among reserve bank presidents and researchers, Toomey has called for Congress to consider several changes to how the institutions operate and how their leaders are chosen. He outlined his grievances and proposed solutions earlier this month, even floating the idea of doing away with the regional banks altogether.
PCE Price Index: March Headline at 6.59% YoY - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for March was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.87% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.59% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 6.47%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017, 2019, and 2020. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit:"The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." Read the August 2020 statement hereThe index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted. bFor a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.
U.S. economy unexpectedly shrinks by 1.4% annualized in Q1 - The U.S. economy shrank by a 1.4-percent annualized rate in the first quarter of 2022 as the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and tapering government spending hit consumers and business, government data showed on Thursday.That was the first decline since the pandemic recession nearly two years ago.The result was far worse than the mild increase analysts had expected. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the economy growing at a rate of 1.1 percent.The slump in output reflected a wider trade deficit and moderate pace of inventory accumulation.The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points next Wednesday, and soon start trimming its asset holdings. The U.S. central bank raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in March, the first rate hike in more than three years, as it fights inflation. Annual consumer prices increased in March at their quickest pace in 40 years.Concerns remain that the Fed could aggressively tighten monetary policy and tip the economy into recession over the next 18 months. The U.S. housing market is already showing signs of slowing, with the 30-year fixed mortgage shooting above 5 percent.
BEA: Real GDP decreased at 1.4% Annualized Rate in Q1 --From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 6.9 percent....The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased. PCE increased at a 2.7% rate, and residential investment increased at a 2.1% rate. Change in private inventories and trade were a huge drag in Q1. The advance Q1 GDP report, with 1.4% annualized decline, was below expectations.
Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -1.4%, Worse Than Forecast --The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -1.4% (-1.41% to two decimal places), a decrease from 6.9% (6.89% to two decimal places) for the Q4 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 1.1%.Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 6.9 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 26, 2022. [Full Release]Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.18% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.31%. Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 14.6% below trend.A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.29%. All twelve recessions over this timeframe have begun at a lower level of current real YoY GDP.
G.D.P. Report Shows the U.S. Economy Shrank, Masking a Broader Recovery - The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of the year, but strong consumer spending and continued business investment suggested that the recovery remained resilient. Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, declined 0.4 percent in the first quarter, or 1.4 percent on an annualized basis, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was down sharply from the 1.7 percent growth (6.9 percent annualized) in the final three months of 2021, and was the weakest quarter since the early days of the pandemic. The decline was mostly a result of the two most volatile components of the quarterly reports: inventories and international trade. Lower government spending was also a drag on growth. Measures of underlying demand showed solid growth. Most important, consumer spending, the engine of the U.S. economy, grew 0.7 percent in the first quarter despite the Omicron wave of the coronavirus, which restrained spending on restaurants, travel and similar services in January. “Consumer spending is the aircraft carrier in the middle of the ocean — it just keeps plowing ahead,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo. In the first quarter, slower growth in inventories shaved close to a percentage point off G.D.P. growth. Companies raced to build up inventories in late 2021 to make sure supply-chain disruptions didn’t leave them with bare shelves during the holiday season. That meant they didn’t have to do as much restocking as usual in the new year. The ballooning trade deficit, meanwhile, took more than three percentage points away from G.D.P. growth in the first quarter. Imports, which are subtracted from gross domestic product because they are produced abroad, have soared in recent months as U.S. consumers have kept spending. But exports, which add to G.D.P., have lagged in part because of weaker economic growth abroad. A measure of underlying growth, which strips out the effects of inventories and trade, rose 0.6 percent in the first quarter, adjusted for inflation. That represented a modest acceleration from the end of last year. “The moral of the story is that the Omicron wave, the war in Ukraine and new lockdowns in China were more costly for growth abroad than they were at home,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton. “Domestic spending was remarkably resilient. It actually accelerated.”
GDP Sunk by Trade Deficit Shitshow (Result of Globalization), Drop in Government Spending. Consumers Held up Despite Raging Inflation by Wolf Richter - Consumers hung in there in Q1, and despite raging inflation, their spending grew at a normal pre-pandemic rate. Private investment grew, inventories recovered some, government consumption expenditures and investments fell again, and then there was the – excuse the technical jargon – shitshow that the trade deficit has become.All put together, GDP, adjusted for raging inflation and seasonality, the so-called “real” GDP, fell by 0.4% in Q1 2022, from Q4 2021, which translates into an annualized rate of -1.4%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysistoday, following the mega-growth in Q4 of +6.9% annualized.For a better view of the details, I truncated the two historic outliers, the 31.2% plunge in Q2 2020 and the 33.8% spike in Q3 2020 (annualized): The shitshow that the Trade Deficit in goods & services has become worsened by $192 billion, adjusted for raging inflation (via 2012 dollars) and annualized, the second-worst ever in dollar terms, behind only Q3 2020. Exports add to GDP, imports subtract from GDP. The so-called Net Exports (exports minus imports) has been a negative on GDP for decades, with exports rising moderately but imports soaring as Corporate America is globalizing production and importing more and more, from Walmart to Apple. Many overseas vendors are now selling directly to US consumers via Amazon and other third-party platforms. During the pandemic, consumers splurged on goods, many of them imported, and the trade deficit exploded. The WOLF STREET dictum that “Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight Line” may have to be revised: So, compare that $192-billion worsening of net exports, which is subtracted from GDP, to the overall decline in GDP $70 billion! The chart above shows what the overstimulated pandemic boom in consumer spending on goods, many of them imported, has done to the trade deficit, which was already in terrible shape – and it hit GDP good and hard. It’s an indictment of globalization over the past three decades, committed by our heroes: Corporate America, lobbyists, and governments over the decades. Raging-inflation adjusted: The Price Index for Gross Domestic Purchases, the BEA’s inflation measure that is part of the GDP report and roughly parallels its inflation adjustments to GDP, spiked by an annualized rate of 7.8% in Q1, the worst since Q2 1981: Consumer spending rose by an annual rate of 2.7% in Q1, adjusted for raging inflation. This was back in the normal growth range that prevailed between the Great Recession and the pandemic, and shows that consumers are making a mighty effort to outspend this raging inflation. Consumer spending as a percent of total GDP, at 70.5% in Q1, was higher than normal (in the 68% to 69% range) as other factors in GDP, particularly the trade deficit and government spending worsened. Gross private domestic investment rose 2.3% (annualized), after the large spike in Q4. This includes fixed investments, such as nonresidential structures, equipment, intellectual property, and residential structures. And it includes “change in private inventories” (more in a moment). Government consumption and investment declined 2.7% (annualized), the second quarter in a row of declines, with spending by the federal government falling by 5.9%, and spending by state and local governments declining by 0.8%. Government consumption and investment does not include transfer payments to consumers and companies, such as stimulus payments, unemployment payments, Social Security payments; nor does it include government salaries, and other direct payments to consumers. Those payments enter GDP when consumers and businesses spend or invest this money.
Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated -First things first: yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession. I’ve been expecting weakness to show up by now ever since last summer; so here it is. But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even adjusted for inflation, were positive. The three big negatives were a big decline in exports vs. imports, followed in about equal measure by a decline in inventories and a downturn in defense production by the government. The inventory adjustment is temporary. So, most likely, was the downturn in defense production. We’ll see about exports and imports (supply chain issues!). But there are two components of GDP which are helpful in finding out what lies ahead: real residential fixed investment (housing) and proprietors income (a proxy for business profits). Both of these have long and good track records as helping forecast the economy one year in advance. Here, the news was mixed, but a little more positive than negative. Proprietors income (blue in the graph below) rose 1.2% nominally. Since unit labor costs have averaged an increase of 0.9% per quarter over the last year, they probably rose to a new high on an adjusted basis as well. This generally rises and falls with corporate profits (red), although it is not quite so leading. But since the latter won’t be reported for at least another month, it is a good placeholder: So, this was a positive. The news was more mixed in housing. Real private residential fixed investment rose slightly: Further, both nominal and real residential fixed investment as a share of GDP (the actual measurement that is part of the long leading indicators) also rose for the quarter: So far, so good. The problem is that recessions have typically happened on average 7 quarters after the last peak in this measure. And even with the improvement in Q1, this measure is still below its peak of one year ago. So real residential investment is still a negative for forecasting purposes. In addition to the above two long leading components of GDP, real money supply for March was reported on Tuesday, and the news wasn’t good there, either. Recessions have typically occurred one year or more after real M1 turns negative, or real M2 is up by less than 2.5% from one year previous. Here’s what they look like through March: Real M1 is up 2.4% YoY, and has deteriorated rapidly, although it is still a positive. Real M2 is also up less than 2.5%, which means it is consistent with an oncoming recession. All in all, the picture continues to deteriorate, even though the profits component held up in Q1.
Why did U.S. real GDP fall? by James_Hamilton - The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter. What does this portend? Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2022:Q1, with the historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of GDP from the previous quarter. The new data left the Econbrowser recession indicator index at 1.2%, signaling very clearly that the economic expansion continued at least through the end of last year. This is not a predictive measure, but rather is an assessment of the situation of the economy in the previous quarter (namely 2021:Q4). We use the one-quarter lag to allow for data revisions (more on which below) and to gain better precision. This index provides the basis for an automatic procedure that we have been implementing for 15 years for assigning dates for the start and end points of economic recessions. We would declare a recession to have started if the index rises above 67%.Some may wonder whether a withdrawal of fiscal stimulus could be a factor in the negative GDP growth. I’m skeptical of that possibility. The blue line in the graph below shows personal income excluding taxes and transfer payments, while the red adds transfer payments and subtracts taxes. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act in March 2020 and the American Rescue Plan Act in March 2021 produced huge surges in disposable personal income, with total transfer payments exceeding personal taxes collected. Taxes net of transfers are now back near historical levels. It’s hard to look at this graph and conclude that the stimulus efforts associated with the red line have been the main driver of consumption spending in green. Indeed, the growth of U.S. consumption spending was stronger in 2022:Q1 than it had been in 2021:Q4.Blue: personal income (PINCOME) plus contributions for government social insurance (A061RC1Q027SBEA) minus government social benefits to persons (A063RC1Q027SBEA). Red: personal income minus personal taxes (W055RC1Q027SBEA). Green: personal outlays (A068RC1Q027SBEA). All data quarterly in billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates, from FRED. For details see BEA Table 2.1.Others may worry about the Fed’s intended interest-rate hikes. We’ve only seen 25 basis points of these so far in the fed funds rate, but anticipation of more to come has already p roduced a 200-basis-point increase in 30-year mortgage rates since the start of the year. But if you borrow at the current 5% rate and see the price of your house go up 17%, as it did last year, it’s still hugely profitable to buy a home. Granted, it’s not clear how long those house price increases will extend into the future. But historically the series plotted below changes pretty slowly. To be sure, as the Fed continues its tightening cycle in an effort to control inflation, the cycle often ends in a recession. But we’re way too early in the cycle for that to be showing up now, and again, residential fixed investment was slightly stronger in Q1 than Q4. High oil prices are another headwind for the economy. These often send consumer sentiment falling, and the current episode is no exception. However, the current indications are that oil prices will end up lower and consumer sentiment higher in April than they were in March. Top panel: real price of oil (WTI divided by CPI) in 2022 dollars. Bottom panel: University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment. Monthly, 1978:M1 to 2022:M3. A key place that sinking sentiment would historically show up is in purchases of consumer durables, particularly autos. The quarter-over-quarter growth in these was actually stronger than that of GDP. Inventories of autos have been so low due to supply-chain problems that it seems unlikely that this will be a big source of quarter-over-quarter declines. Lots of room for production gains from restocking even if consumer purchases are anemic.
A Few Comments on Q1 GDP and Investment --Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2021 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 6.9 percent....The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased.The advance Q1 GDP report, at -1.4% annualized, was below expectations, primarily due to a negative impact from trade and a decrease in inventories. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 2.7% annualized rate in Q1.The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So, the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern didn't apply.The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.Residential investment (RI) increased at a 2.1% annual rate in Q1. Equipment investment increased at a 15.3% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures increased at a 9.2% annual rate. The contribution to Q1 GDP from investment in private inventories was -0.84 percentage points.On a 3-quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is unchanged, equipment (green) is up, and nonresidential structures (blue) is still down.I'll post more on the components of non-residential investment once the supplemental data is released.
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. Note: Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of April 24th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 12.6% from the same day in 2019 (87.4% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel has been moving sideways over the last month, off about 10% from 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through April 21st. Movie ticket sales were at $145 million last week, down about 20% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through April 16th. The occupancy rate was down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 37% of normal. This data is through Friday, April 22nd.
Voters see inflation as top issue facing the country: poll - Inflation topped the list of issues facing the country that voters are most concerned about in a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill on Monday. Thirty-three percent of voters polled said price increases and inflation were the top issues facing the country. Another 28 percent said the economy and jobs were top issues, while 22 percent named the coronavirus. Seventeen percent of voters said crime and drugs were a top issue. The poll also found that 60 percent of respondents called inflation “a very serious issue,” while 73 percent said they were personally impacted by the issue. “America is a bundle of fears today and at the top of that list is fear if inflation, edging out nuclear weapons as a fear that’s broad and deep in nature,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey. “We have not had rampant inflation for 50 years so most are unfamiliar with it and how to react,” he continued. “They mostly blame Biden’s policies not Putin for the surge.” Democrats have struggled to combat Republican messaging on inflation, and the poll shows the Biden administration appears to lack voters’ confidence on the issue. Fifty-five percent of voters said they were not confident in the Biden administration’s ability combat rising costs, while 56 percent said the same about the federal reserve. The Biden administration has blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for rising gas prices, but polling shows Americans do not appear to be buying the message. Manchin meets with bipartisan group on climate change Shares of company behind Trump’s Truth Social fall after Musk’s Twitter deal Forty-eight percent said they blamed President Biden for the surge in prices, while 24 percent said they blamed Putin. Another 16 percent said they blamed the Federal Reserve.
Defense Secretary Austin admits the US is a party to Ukraine war - On Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin traveled to Ukraine, where Austin effectively stated that the United States is a party to the Ukraine war. After meeting with Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelensky, Austin declared in prepared remarks, “our focus in the meeting was to talk about those things that would enable us to win the current fight and also build for tomorrow.” In using the first-person plural to describe both the United States and Ukraine as engaged in a “fight” against Russia, Austin effectively admitted—for the first time by a US official—that the United States is a combatant in the war. This statement is especially striking given the declaration by Biden in March that “Direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III, something we must strive to prevent.” Combining the statements of Austin that “we” are engaged in a “fight” against Russia, and Biden’s declaration that a war between the US and Russia would mean “World War III,” it is impossible to avoid the conclusion that the proxy war between the US and Russia over Ukraine threatens to rapidly spiral into a world war. Austin then said, “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” Austin’s statement echoed the declaration by US Army Europe Commander Ben Hodges that the US should aim for “breaking the back of Russia.” A recent New York Times editorial also invoked the prospect of “bringing Russia to its knees.” Commenting on the statements by Austin, the New York Times’ David Sanger wrote, There is a second risk: that if Mr. Putin believes that his conventional military forces are being strangled, he will turn to stepped-up cyberattacks on Western infrastructure, chemical weapons or his arsenal of tactical, “battlefield” nuclear weapons. It is a possibility that was barely conceivable eight weeks ago, but is regularly discussed today. “Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setback they’ve faced so far militarily, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons,” William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, warned earlier this month. In other words, the Biden administration is consciously leading the population of Ukraine, Russia, the US and the world down a path that risks nuclear war. Yet there is no public discussion of the implications of these policies, nor has the Biden administration alerted the population about the vast danger posed by its escalation of the war. Rather, for months it has systematically worked to chloroform public opinion about the dangers of nuclear war. Thus, Biden recently declared, “I don’t think he [Putin] is remotely contemplating using nuclear weapons.”
Biden massively expands US war with Russia-- On Thursday, US President Joe Biden called on Congress to approve $20 billion in weapons shipments for the US war with Russia as part of a $33 billion spending package. To date, the United States has sent $3.7 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine, meaning that Biden is proposing to expand US involvement in the conflict by a factor of six. This would mark a quantitative turning point in the war, massively expanding the US intervention just as the war is rapidly spiraling out of control and metastasizing into a continent-wide conflict. The announcement is part of a major escalation of US involvement in the war, in which US officials are more and more openly admitting that the United States is effectively at war with Russia. Earlier this week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin described the meeting of US officials with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by saying, “our focus in the meeting was to talk about those things that would enable us to win the current fight.” Austin then said, “We want to see Russia weakened.” On Sunday, in an interview with CBS, former US Army Europe Commander Ben Hodges declared, “You know, we’re not just observers cheering for Ukraine here.” The United States, Hodges said, should declare, “We want to win.” He concluded, “that means… finally breaking the back of Russia’s ability to project power outside of Russia.” Biden’s address, which was intended for a far broader audience than the remarks of Austin or Hodges, was characterized by shameless, bare-faced lies, contradicting the statements of his own defense secretary. Let’s be blunt. Biden’s war with Russia has nothing to do with the Ukrainian people, who are being used as cannon fodder by the kleptocratic regime in Kiev at the behest of its Washington paymasters. The United Sates instigated the war by encircling Russia with troops, tanks and nuclear weapons, expanding NATO’s borders 400 miles to the East over the course of decades, and backing Ukrainian plans to retake Crimea, which Russia claims as its territory. Washington’s aims are nothing less than the overthrow of the Russian government and the total subordination of Russia to imperialism, which Biden admitted when he declared last month that Putin “cannot remain in power.” Following Biden’s remarks, the president was asked by a journalist, “How worried are you by a growing number of Russian comments in the media and amongst some of their officials painting this conflict as actually already a conflict between NATO, the US and Russia? And they’re painting in very alarmist terms, talking of nuclear weapons, saying it’s a life-or-death struggle, et cetera. “And just separately—well, connected to that: Lavrov himself says it’s already a proxy war—not a direct war but a proxy war. So are either of those two things true?” To this, Biden replied, “They’re not true,” adding, “I think it’s more of a reflection not of the truth but of [Russia’s] failure.” It is the policy of the US media to insist that claims the administration chooses to deny at a given moment are “Russian.” In this case, however, these were not merely “Russian” comments, but statements by Biden’s own defense secretary, as well as the undeniable reality visible to anyone who is not willfully deluding himself.
In Ukraine, Use the Weapon the Russians Can’t Match -- It’s nowhere near as expensive as it sounds, and much more humane: offer every Russian soldier who defects $100,000 and the right to settle in any EU/North American country of their choice. It might not work, especially if Russia uses deadly force against soldiers who lay down their arms or violent reprisals against their families back home. But if a large enough portion of their troops accept the offer, the Russian war effort would be crippled.Of course, Putin will claim that this is an inducement to the worst sort of betrayal, selling out your country’s fundamental values and interests in exchange for a bribe. If this were really what’s at stake in the war, he’d be right. But if not just a few, but thousands, including whole units, opt for the deal, it sends the message that Putin’s war aims are hollow. Of course, defectors can send that message directly as well, for instance through social media, and it would take a much higher level of repression than today’s to block it.Too expensive? Way cheaper than war in every way. As an upper bound, consider that if 100,000 troops defect—which would likely end the war on the spot—the cost would come to $10 billion, far less than what will be spent on arms and lost through death and destruction. Note that this is a weapon only the West can wield, since Russia can neither afford such largesse, nor would settlement in Russia be as attractive.
Four Republicans, four Democrats vote ‘no’ on bill urging Biden to confiscate assets from sanctioned oligarchs - Eight House lawmakers voted against a largely symbolic bill on Wednesday that urges President Biden to confiscate assets from sanctioned Russian oligarchs and use the funds to support Ukraine. The legislation, dubbed the Asset Seizure for Ukraine Reconstruction Act, passed in a 417-8 vote. The lawmakers who voted against the bill are among the most liberal and most conservative members of the House. Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas) voted against the bill. The Hill reached out to the lawmakers for more information on why they did not support the legislation. The bill, which is nonbinding, urges Biden to seize and confiscate assets belonging to foreign individuals whose wealth was in part acquired “through corruption linked to or political support for the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin and with respect to which the President has imposed sanctions.” Assets that have a value higher than $2 million and belong to Russian energy companies or foreign individuals whose wealth is tied to the Kremlin would be subject to the bill. Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), a sponsor of the bill, said the legislation would confiscate luxury villas, yachts and airplanes belonging to Russian oligarchs and companies that have been sanctioned by the U.S. According to the bill, the U.S. would then hold, use, administer, liquidate or sell the seized assets. The bill urges the liquidated funds to be used “for the benefit of the people of Ukraine,” including post-conflict reconstruction in the country, humanitarian aid, assistance for Ukrainian security forces, and support for refugees and refugee settlement in the U.S. and other countries.M
Biden's new pick for US ambassador to Saudi Arabia will be considered an insult by MBS, ex-official says, as US-Saudi relations hit new low - --President Joe Biden's pick for US ambassador to Saudi Arabia will likely be considered a disappointment or even an insult to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a former US official told Insider.Last Friday, Biden nominated Michael Ratney to the post following the departure of Gen. John Abizaid, a former head of US Central Command, from Riyadh last year.The nomination comes at a low point in US-Saudi relations, with Biden clearly distancing himself from the country and Crown Prince Mohammed — also known as MBS — reportedly trying to punish him back.David Schenker, who served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs at the State Department from 2019 to January 2021, told Insider of Ratney: "He's a very capable diplomat, he served in positions of importance, requited himself well, and is held in high regard.""But we've seen a lot of stresses in the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia and this is not going to help." Historically, most US ambassadors to Saudi Arabia have been political appointees with deep military ties, like Abizaid.Other former recent ambassadors include Joseph Westphal, the former under secretary of the US Army, and James Smith, a former executive with the Raytheon arms manufacturer.But Ratney, a widely respected, Arabic-speaking diplomat, is the first foreign-service officer to be in line for the post since Charles Freeman in 1989.
4 issues to watch as Dems eye reconciliation return - Democrats are coming back today from a two-week recess with a last-gasp chance at finding consensus on a budget reconciliation package that could funnel hundreds of billions for clean energy technology to combat climate change.Lawmakers are working under a tight time frame. Most Senate Democrats are eyeing Memorial Day as the target date for striking a new deal. Negotiations follow a series of Earth Day-inspired calls for action, including a rally in Washington over the weekend led by environmental groups. “It’s time to close the deal and get this done,” the executives of those groups wrote President Joe Biden. Pivotal to that deal is Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who in December single-handedly put the reconciliation package on hold as he said he would not support the House-passed version of the bill as currently written. Manchin has dropped hints that he could be open to a deal. Earlier this year, he said he supported the $555 billion in clean energy-related spending included in the bill (Greenwire, Jan. 4).But the political landscape has continued to change in the wrong direction for Democrats. The president’s popularity has been going down as energy prices move up, prompting Manchin to demand more fossil fuel production (Greenwire, April 18). Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who last week wrote an op-ed urging Democrats to do more ahead of the election, said yesterday that some sort of package needed to be passed. “Yes, we need to do climate change. Yes, we need to do prescription drugs,” she said on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” while arguing that Democrats’ plans do tackle inflation by taxing large corporations. Here’s a breakdown of some of the outstanding energy and environment issues and how recent events could shape how they move forward:
- 1. The taxes. Central to this month’s negotiations on climate is nearly $325 billion in clean energy tax breaks. The House-passed bill contained a 10-year extension of renewable and energy storage tax credits, a nuclear production tax credit, extension and expansion of the carbon capture credit, and billions in tax breaks for clean energy manufacturing.
- 2. Methane fee Senate Democrats negotiated with Manchin for weeks on a proposed fee on methane emissions before the West Virginia Democrat announced his opposition to the full package in December.Methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas and an important component of any plan to reduce emissions. But if “Build Back Better” is to be brought back to life, the provision is on uncertain ground.Before the legislation passed the House last year, Democratic leadership struck a deal with Manchin and oil patch lawmakers to pair the fee with millions in subsidies to help oil and gas companies reduce methane pollution.The U.S. Methane Emissions Reduction Action Program would assess a fee on methane emissions starting at $900 per ton and also offer $775 billion in grants and loans to the industry. It was a tough pill to swallow for progressives, who want to see all subsidies and tax breaks for oil and gas eliminated (E&E Daily, Dec. 10, 2021).
- 3. Oil and gas leasingThe political conversation about oil and gas leasing has only accelerated in recent days with the Biden administration’s announcement of an onshore federal lease sale and increased royalties.That could impact how Democrats proceed in talks on the reconciliation package, particularly amid high gas prices spurred by the war in Ukraine (Greenwire, April 18).
- 4. The offsets. Key to any deal, according to Manchin’s demands, is that the package is fully paid for across the 10-year budget window and helps to drive revenues to chip away at the national deficit.Democrats appeared to reach a consensus on the pay-fors in December, with the bulk of the offsets stemming from a minimum 15 percent tax on both domestic and international companies. Those two policies alone would raise approximately $600 billion — enough to cover the bill’s climate price tag.Since then, Manchin has reiterated his desire to see the corporate tax brought up to 25 percent, compared to the existing 21 percent rate instituted by Republicans under their last reconciliation bill in 2017. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), however, has balked at such a change.
Manchin Explores Possible Energy, Climate Package With GOP – Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is exploring an energy and climate package aimed at winning enough Republican support to skirt the partisan budget reconciliation process that has held hostage hundreds of billions of dollars in potential spending on related priorities. If I can find something bipartisan, we don’t need reconciliation,” Manchin, of West Virginia, said in an interview on Monday.
Manchin opens the door to striking a climate deal with the GOP and backing a watered-down version of Biden's big bill -- Congress is back in session and Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia is putting himself in a familiar place: Near the center of the Democratic agenda. Alongside Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Manchin convened a meeting on climate initiatives in an effort to see whether a bipartisan deal can be cut with Republicans. NBC News first reported the gathering."If I can find something bipartisan, we don't need reconciliation," referring to the legislative strategy Democrats have been using for over a year allowing them to bypass the 60-vote threshold to end a potential filibuster, he told Bloomberg. He later told Capitol Hill reporters that one area of shared interest could be overhauling the federal oil and gas leasing program."It's urgent to find out if there is a pathway, if there is anyway that we can find a pathway in a bipartisan, bicameral way," Manchin said.Sam Runyon, a spokesperson for Manchin, said the meeting "was an effort to gauge bipartisan interest in a path forward that addresses our nation's climate and energy security needs head on."The gathering included Manchin, Murkowski, Democratic Sens. Mark Warner of Virginia, John Hickenlooper of Colorado, Tom Carper of Delaware, Mark Warner of Virginia, Mark Kelly of Arizona, and GOP Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, per a person familiar with the gathering. At least one Democratic House lawmaker, Rep. Ro Khanna of California, joined as well."Passing a bold climate bill is my highest priority," Khanna, a top progressive, said in a statement to Insider. "I was pleased to participate with colleagues on finding a way forward."The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the meeting.
Manchin meets with bipartisan group on climate change - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), the Senate’s key swing vote, met with lawmakers from across the ideological spectrum Monday evening as part of a new push for bipartisan climate change legislation. Manchin spokesperson Sam Runyon told The Hill via email that the meeting was “an effort to gauge bipartisan interest in a path forward that addressed our nation’s climate and energy security needs head on.”The meeting was first reported by NBC News, which said that Manchin and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) organized the meeting.Murkowski spokesperson Hannah Ray described the meeting as “a high-level discussion on energy and climate” in an email to The Hill. A source familiar confirmed to The Hill that the other attendees were Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif) and Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Tom Carper (D-Del.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.)The source said that there have been additional Republicans involved. The meeting comes after Manchin in December effectively killed a massive bill that would have advanced the Biden administration’s climate and social spending agenda by announcing that he would not support it.In the months since, he has expressed support for some of that legislation’s climate provisions, particularly its clean energy tax credits. Democrats have been expected to try to negotiate a slimmed-down bill that advances their agenda through a process called budget reconciliation that requires only 50 votes to pass. A source told The Hill that the latest meeting doesn’t mean Manchin won’t also support a reconciliation measure and that the matters are separate.
'Last chance': Greens push climate compromise with Manchin - Environmental groups are blitzing Capitol Hill this week to press Democrats to seize their last best chance to pass party-line legislation to tame climate change.Even though climate advocates have dramatically scaled back their expectations from the early days of the Biden administration, the effort is aimed at salvaging the core clean energy components of the Build Back Better bill that Sen. Joe Manchin quashed in December.Last year, environmental groups had supported the full breadth of President Joe Biden’s agenda, viewing it as consistent with the “Green New Deal” strategy to link environmental action with related investments in education, health care and affordable housing.Now, many environmentalists say it’s time to toss in the towel on some of the progressives’ social policies in order to secure a narrower deal on Manchin’s terms.“We have no doubt this is the last chance to get reconciliation done,” said Christy Goldfuss, senior vice president for energy and environment policy with the Center for American Progress. “We are talking years if not another decade before we get another opportunity. It’s either going to come together now around that framework that Manchin has said he has agreed to, or it’s over. We feel the finality of this across the climate movement.”The West Virginia centrist, who chairs the powerful Energy Committee, recently reopened the door to a smaller reconciliation package by publicly outlining a framework to address climate change using tax breaks for a bevy of clean energy technologies while also rolling back Republicans’ 2017 tax cuts and reforming prescription drug pricing.But Manchin is also pressing Biden to restart new offshore oil and gas lease sales and expedite exports of natural gas to increase U.S. energy security and lower inflated energy prices caused by supply chain constraints and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Green organizations are inclined to accept a trade-off for legislation that helps speed the growth of clean energy that offers a short-term boost for fossil fuels in order to reach a deal by Memorial Day, fearing that any chance for climate action will be stymied if Republicans win control of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections.
Manchin stirs the pot while other Dems try to resuscitate their party-line vision -Just because Joe Manchin is launching bipartisan talks on an energy and climate change package doesn’t mean he’s throwing in the towel on Democrats’ long-sought party-line social spending and tax bill. The West Virginia Democrat reiterated Tuesday, the day after he and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) organized a meeting with several fellow Democrats and one GOP colleague on energy and climate, that he sees a party-line bill this year as a way to reform the tax code. Manchin’s remarks followed a Tuesday morning meeting with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to discuss strategies for combating rising inflation. While Manchin isn’t ready to torpedo all prospects for a party-line bill this year the way he quashed the $1.7 trillion package once called “Build Back Better,” he flatly rejected any effort to set a new timeline for reaching an agreement. Some of his Democratic colleagues, meanwhile, are already talking of Memorial Day as a deadline to shape a new bill that can be steered past a filibuster using the budgetary maneuver known as reconciliation. “Reconciliation for me is about getting inflation under control, paying down this debt, getting a handle on what’s going on” through tax reform, Manchin told reporters after meeting with Schumer. The gregarious centrist, whose vote is essential for anything to pass the 50-50 Senate, said his bipartisan energy discussions did not mean climate change provisions would be left out of any reconciliation bill that can advance. “No, no, no,” he said, adding climate would be a “big factor” as lawmakers assemble party-line legislation. Earlier, Manchin told POLITICO the bipartisan group’s first meeting went well but that “we’re just starting.” Senators who attended, he added, are “just seeing if there’s a commonality to make sure we have reliable energy and also be able to go down the path to address the climate issues we’re all concerned about.”
Poll: Manchin’s popularity skyrocketed over past year -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is among the most popular senators in the country after seeing his favorability skyrocket back home over the past year, according to an analysis of survey data released Monday. Morning Consult found that, even as Manchin has faced backlash from progressives nationally, about 57 percent of West Virginia voters viewed him favorably in surveys conducted from January through March. His popularity jumped 17 points — more than any other senator — compared to the same period last year. The poll found that Manchin’s popularity particularly grew among independent and Republican voters in West Virginia, while it dropped among Democrats. Manchin, a moderate, has frequently staked out positions that have found him at odds with the White House and progressive leaders on issues such as expanding the social safety net. The senator has identified inflation as his primary concern when lawmakers have discussed large-scale spending proposals and has often worked to scale back proposals. At the top of the popularity rankings, Morning Consult found that Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) were all viewed favorably by 62 percent of their respective states’ voters. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was viewed least favorably, with 60 percent of Kentucky voters saying they disapprove of the job he’s doing.
Paxlovid: Biden administration secures 20 million courses of Covid-19 antiviral pill - The Biden administration has secured the purchase of 20 million treatment courses of Paxlovid, Pfizer's antiviral Covid-19 pill, a senior administration official told CNN on Monday.The administration will work with the manufacturer to accelerate production and delivery of the new drug to pharmacies across the country, the official told reporters. A tranche of 100,000 courses will initially be available to pharmacies per quarter while demand and uptake are monitored.Paxlovid combines a new antiviral drug named nirmatrelvir and an older one called ritonavir and is administered as three pills given twice a day for five days. Data released by Pfizer late last year showed the treatment cut the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% if given to high-risk adults within a few days of their first symptoms."Paxlovid first became authorized by the FDA at the end of December. And there were very, very few pills around. The administration worked incredibly hard to both increase production and acquisition, and the good news is we've made really substantial progress," White House Covid-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha said on NPR on Monday."Now we've got to turn those pills into prescriptions and into the things that patients can get so that they can get better if they get infected. We have a big set of efforts that we have been working on and launching, and we're going to be doing a lot more this week." While the administration has secured funding for the order, the senior administration official warned Monday that without further funds from Congress, "we will not be able to purchase more."
Masking Up to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission --On Monday, a Florida judge voided the U.S. mandate for public transit, which includes planes, trains, and buses. Several airlines immediately announced they dropped the mask requirement. In true pandemic fashion, an intense debate about masks ensued.In a peer review by the American Bar Association pre-appointment, the rating for the deciding judge was “unqualified” to be a district judge. The ABA took issue with the short time she practiced law and herlack of meaningful trial experience.Ok, so now we have a court making a decision impacting the health of US citizenry. “The CDC is “still” recommending wearing a mask on public transit.” The mask requirement for travelers was the target of intense lobbying by airlines seeking to kill it. Carriers arguing the use of effective air filters on modern planes makes transmission of the virus during a flight unlikely. But is this true? Airline CEOs are claiming the removal of “99.97 of airborne pathogens by filters.” Therefore, masking is serving no purpose.” The first claim may be true, the second claim is not true. Why? A DOD report found plane ventilation and filtration systems were reducing the risk of airborne SARS-CoV-2 exposure by 99%. Due to air changes per hour, transmission occurs less frequently even with numerous people in close quarters taking in shared air. After reviewing 18 peer-reviewed studies (public health reports) of flights that were published between January 24, 2020 to September 21, 2020, it was concluded the “transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can still occur in aircrafts. However, it is a relatively rare event.”Like any mitigation layer, ventilation/filtration isn’t perfect in stopping transmission. An extensive study traced 217 passengers and crew from a 10-hour flight from London → Vietnam in March 2020. Masks were not mandatory nor widely used. The index (infected) case was in business class and symptomatic with fever and cough. Sixteen cases were acquired in-flight (i.e., secondary cases). Twelve were in business class, equating to a 75% attack rate in business class. Two cases were in economy class and another case was a staff member.Assessing another flight study from Israel → Germany in March 2020 with no masks. Secondary cases were two rows away from the index case.Proximity is important and consistent with other viral outbreaks on planes. In a review of 14 studies, researchers found an overall influenza attack rate of 7.5%. Forty-two percent of the cases were sitting d within two rows of the index case. Similar findings were documented with SARS on a flight. Thirty-four percent were within 3 rows of the index case. As opposed to an 11% attack rate among persons seated elsewhere. There are many examples of secondary cases not in close proximity.Nobody sits forever. Hence greater transmission or exposure. Pre-pandemic, onegroup traveled on 10 intercontinental flights to assess the behaviors and movements of people on planes and the impact on viral transmission. Of the 1,296 passengers observed, 38% left their seat once, 13% left twice, and 11% left more than two times. Eighty-four percent of passengers had a close contact with an individual seated beyond a 1-meter radius from them. People with the most contacts were sitting in the aisle compared to the window. The assumption would be people in aisle seats have a higher risk of infection. A SARS-CoV-2 study found the opposite. The attack rate is higher for passengers in window seats (7 cases/28 passengers) and lower for people in non-window seats (4/83). The 7 window passengers never left their seat too. This factor makes other measures (masking) of prevention important. Besides wearing masks on planes, probabilities can vary with the wearing of high or low efficiency masks. Rick increases if not worn 100% of the time. The removal for meals increases risk. Passenger count and proximity to one another matters. The more the space, the less the risk.
Kamala Harris tests positive for Covid - Vice President Kamala Harris tested positive for Covid-19 on Tuesday after returning from a weeklong trip to California, the White House announced. "Today, Vice President Harris tested positive for Covid-19 on rapid and PCR tests. She has exhibited no symptoms, will isolate and continue to work from the vice president's residence," said Kirsten Allen, the vice president's press secretary, in a statement. Allen added, "She has not been a close contact to the President or First Lady due to their respective recent travel schedules. She will follow CDC guidelines and the advice of her physicians. The Vice President will return to the White House when she tests negative." Harris had been scheduled to receive her intelligence briefing at 10:15 am ET Tuesday at the White House alongside President Joe Biden, according to daily guidance sent to reporters Monday evening. She did not participate in any events or meetings at the White House on Tuesday, according to a White House official. Harris arrived at the White House Tuesday morning, a White House official told CNN, and went straight to take a test. After testing positive on both PCR and rapid tests, she returned home to her residence at the Naval Observatory, where she will be isolating. Separately, an official said Harris last saw Biden at the Easter Egg Roll on April 18. She left Washington for California that afternoon and didn't return until Monday night.
The White House emphasizes the importance of indoor air quality as the pandemic moves into a new phases -- Alondra Nelson, chief of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, said last week that the guidance was part of an initiative called the Clean Air in Buildings Challenge. In a blog post titled, “Let’s Clear the Air on Covid,” she cited the guidance and said, “Now, we all need to work collectively to make our friends, family, neighbors, and co-workers aware of what we can do or ask for to make being indoors together safer.”“For decades, Americans have demanded that clean water flow from our taps and pollution limits be placed on our smokestacks and tailpipes,” Dr. Nelson wrote in the post. “It is time for healthy and clean indoor air to also become an expectation for us all.”U.S. federal health authorities were initially slow to identify airborne transmission of the virus. It was only in October 2020 that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recognized that the virus can sometimes be airborne, long after many infectious disease experts warned that the coronavirus traveled aloft in small, airborne particles. Scientists have been calling for a bigger focus on addressing that risk for more than a year.The initiative is “really a big deal,” said William Bahnfleth, a professor of architectural engineering at Pennsylvania State University and head of the Epidemic Task Force at the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers. “It’s making the start that is often the most difficult part.”Though some experts around the world have been arguing that point for years, and subsequently advocating for respirator use and enhanced ventilation systems, this is the first time the White House has formally acknowledged that aerosol transmission has been the primary driver of the COVID-19 pandemic. In doing so, it has turned away from the language used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Biden Administration’s Shambolic Position on Covid’s Airborne Transmission Renders Their “Personal Risk Assessment” Absurd - by Lambert Strether - As readers know, “Covid is airborne” (“Ten scientific reasons in support of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2“). Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem possible to get the White House to adopt this messaging, which in addition to simplicity, has the great merit of being true: The White House, apparently, prefers to speak through its actions, doubling down on Vax-only by holding its very own superspreading event, hailed as a paragon of “thoughtful” risk assessment: (Wen’s “new normal” is a virtually psychotic dystopia, given that “living with Covid” implies Long Covid, as well as vascular and neurological damage, both in “mild” cases.) I don’t see how it’s possible to be “thoughtful” about risk without a collectively agreed upon theory of transmission, a theory the Biden Administration resolutely refused to provide; it’s like being “thoughtful” about fire safety when phlogiston and oxygen are competing paradigms. For example, here’s future MSNBC personally Jen Psaki on masking: Of course, Psaki cannot — will not — say: “Covid is airborne; of course we support masking.” So she fobs the matter off to the CDC, which is ludicrous, because Walensky is a creature of the White House. In this post, I will demonstrate the Biden Administration’s shambolic position on airborne transmission, looking at the White House Office of Science and Technology, the CDC, and OSHA. Then I’ll conclude with a few remarks on personal risk-taking, and how the White House, by not adopting a scientifically proven theory of transmission, has made risk assessment much for difficult for poor shlubs like us whose return to normal doesn’t (we hope) include Covid parties.
Fauci to skip correspondents’ dinner, citing COVID concerns -Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top expert on infectious diseases, is forgoing the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner on Saturday, reportedly over concerns about COVID-19.Fauci was supposed to attend the dinner as a guest of ABC News, according to CNN, whichwas the first to report the development. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases confirmed to The Hill that he will miss the event.Fauci said he withdrew “because of my individual assessment of my personal risk,” according to The New York Times.In an interview with CBS News published on Wednesday, Fauci explained that the right decision for him might not necessarily pertain to others. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Wednesday that President Biden would be attending the speaking program of the event but would not be there for the dinner portion to limit COVID-19 risks. Biden is 79 years old; Fauci is 81. Vice President Harris tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday but is not considered a close contact of Biden.
Biden to skip eating portion of correspondents’ dinner to limit COVID risk - President Biden will take added precautions while at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner this weekend amid concerns about exposure to COVID-19, but White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Biden feels the event is worth attending. Biden may wear a mask when he is not delivering remarks at the annual event on Saturday, and he will not attend the dinner portion, Psaki said. The president will arrive for the speaking program, during which the White House Correspondents’ Association will award scholarships and recognize journalists covering the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Comedian Trevor Noah is also slated to speak at the event at the Washington Hilton. “He’s made the decision he wants to attend, in a safe way, the White House correspondents’ dinner to showcase his support for the free press, for the work of all of you, for the work of your colleagues around the world to not only share accurate information about COVID but also report on the war in Ukraine and all of the work that happens every single day,” Psaki said at a briefing. “That does stand in stark contrast to his predecessor, who not only questioned the legitimacy of the press on a nearly daily basis, but also never attended the dinner, I don’t believe,” Psaki continued. “So, he felt that was important and made a risk assessment to do that in consultation with his doctors and health care team.” The dinner, which did not take place in 2020 or 2021 due to the pandemic, is returning this year despite some lingering concerns about the potential for it to spread the virus as a contagious variant circulates around the country. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious diseases expert, told news outlets Wednesday that he had decided not to attend because of personal concerns about health and safety.
Covid’s still spreading. What are the risks to someone like Biden? - For weeks, the coronavirus has been closing in on the Oval Office.In late March, White House press secretary Jen Psaki tested positive for the virus, her second breakthrough infection. A few weeks later, an outbreak at the annual Gridiron Club dinner seeded infections among House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and three members of President Biden’s cabinet. And on Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris tested positive at the White House and had to cancel a meeting with Biden.Yet on Saturday, Biden is planning to step into a tuxedo and into a cavernous underground ballroom for the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, the first time a sitting president has attended since 2016. Despite rising coronavirus cases in the D.C. region, up to 2,600 guests are expected to attend in full pre-pandemic “Nerd Prom” regalia — satin lapels, glittering gowns, and mask-free faces — albeit with proof of vaccination and a same-day negative Covid test.When President Trump became infected with Covid in October 2020, he had to be airliftedto Walter Reed Medical Center for treatment. If Biden, who is 79, were to become infected with Covid, how worried should Americans be?While age remains a strong risk factor with Covid, vaccines and treatments have greatly decreased the threat of grave illness, experts said. “The president is vaccinated, boosted, and will be receiving very good medical care,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “He’s also relatively healthy. Under the circumstances, it’s about as good as you can get.” When the super-contagious Omicron variant first emerged late last year, Hanage said he and other public health experts immediately worried about the virus reaching Biden. Age is the single biggest risk factor for severe complications of Covid-19; people over 75 are 140 times more likely to die if infected than 18- to 29-year-olds, according to hospital data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that includes both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. “But one thing that has become clear since then is that Omicron is intrinsically more mild than Delta,” said Hanage. Large studies in South Africa and the U.K. both showed that an infection with Omicron carried with it lower risks of hospitalization. Notably, the U.K. study found that the older a person was, the higher those reductions in risk were. “That’s very important because if you’re an older person, you’re far better off getting infected with what’s going around now then what was going around six months ago,” said Hanage.
Experts: U.S. may default to annual Covid boosters without sufficient data – A number of vaccine experts are concerned the United States may be sleepwalking into a policy of recommending annual Covid-19 vaccine boosters — without having generated the evidence to show they are actually needed.Already, the Food and Drug Administration has authorized second boosters — or fourth doses — for people aged 50 and older, even though neither that agency nor the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has explicitly urged people to get them. Based on recent meetings of panels that advise the FDA and the CDC, many vaccine experts assume another booster will be recommended in the fall in anticipation of a possible surge in Covid activity during the cold and flu season next winter.Meanwhile, several vaccine manufacturers have said annual boosters will be needed and are working on combined flu and Covid vaccines that could be deployed every autumn.The developments have some experts warning that the U.S. may be headed toward a policy of annual boosters as a sort of default position, not one arrived at by careful scrutiny of the evidence on how well vaccine protection is holding up.“It’s alarming that there hasn’t been organization around these vital questions, so that we can actually answer them in a very enlightened and data-driven and knowledgeable manner,” said Luciana Borio, a former acting chief scientist at the FDA who is now a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s so reactive,” Borio said during a briefing for journalists organized by Georgetown University Medical Center. “And we know that this just snowballs. And we end up being stuck with decisions that don’t really make sense.”
Will Pfizer’s Paxlovid Be the Game-Changer that Saves Biden’s “Test to Treat” Program? --by Lambert Strether --Paxlovid — “Peace and love,” dig? Or even just “Pax,” as American’s Chief Pharmaceutical Salesman White House Covid response coordinator Ashish Jha dubs it — is the key treatment in the Biden Administration’s “Test to Treat” program. As readers know, I’m all for treatment — indeed, I can’t understand why the White House didn’t intitiate an Operation Warp Speed for treatments when it took office — but with Paxlovid I have some questions. First, I’ll look at the “Test to Treat” program, as it has performed and as the White House Hopes to Improve It. Then, after looking at the FDA EUA for Paxlovid, I’ll raise issues with the drug that might mean uptake is not what the White House expects it to be. I’ll conclude with a few remarks on treatment equity. But before I dive in, here’s the study from the New England Journal of Medicine that’s driving the enthusiasm for Covid: “Oral Nirmatrelvir for High-Risk, Nonhospitalized Adults with Covid-19.” From the Abstract (or, depending, the sales pitch): Treatment of symptomatic Covid-19 with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir resulted in a risk of progression to severe Covid-19 that was 89% lower than the risk with placebo, without evident safety concerns.(Nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir is Paxlovid[1].) Taking apart a NEJM study is definitely above my paygrade. Two things, however, leap out. First, from Method:We conducted a phase 2–3 double-blind, randomized, controlled trial [with] symptomatic,unvaccinated, nonhospitalized adults at high risk for progression to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19)….So the test population was unvaccinated? Oh. And:(Supported by Pfizer; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04960202. Well, alrighty then. On to the “Test to Treat” program.Up until this point, the Biden Administration’s “Test to Treat” program has been — hold on to your hats, here, folks — an omnishambles. From Kaiser Health News:The federal “test-to-treat” program, announced in March, is meant to reduce covid hospitalizations and deaths by quickly getting antiviral pills to people who test positive. But even as cases rise again, many Americans don’t have access to the program. But large swaths of the country had no test-to-treat pharmacies or health centers listed as of April 14. And the website of the largest participant, CVS, has significant technical issues that make booking an appointment difficult. Although the cost of the pills is covered by the federal government, obtaining a prescription at the pharmacies that dominate the program can be expensive. People without insurance, whose health plans don’t cover visits to the clinics, or who have high-deductible plans must shoulder the full cost of the appointment.Hey, remember when Trump just gave out vaccines for free? What an idea that was. In any case, here’s how the Biden Administration proposes to improve the program. From CNN:The administration has plans underway to increase the availability and uptake of the drug, White House Covid-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha announced on Twitter.… According to Jha’s tweets, the administration is working on establishing more places where Paxlovid will be available, including more test-to-treat sites.The administration’s nationwide test-to-treat initiative involves “one-stop” sites where people are offered free Covid-19 testing and, if they test positive, can be prescribed free antiviral medications on the spot.Jha tweeted that the Biden administration’s plans include more education for health care providers on how to use Paxlovid “more regularly” for eligible patients.So, translating, the Administration sees doctors as the problem, and hopes to work around them by getting pharmacists to prescribe Paxlovid to, well, customers directly. Why would that be a problem, and why have doctors been reluctant to prescribe Paxlovid? To understand that, we need first to look at Paxlovid’s FDA EUA, which describes who is eligible for treatment. Yale Medicine describes who is eligible for Paxlovid: in order to qualify for a prescription, you must also have had a positive COVID-19 test result and be at high risk for developing severe COVID-19.The more underlying medical conditions a person has, the higher their risk for developing a severe case of COVID-19, according to the CDC.
Title 42 looms over Biden meeting with Hispanic Democrats - President Biden’s scheduled meeting with Hispanic Democrats touched on a series of issues affecting Latino communities, but kitchen table topics were overshadowed by the ongoing debate over the termination of Title 42. Seven members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) met with Biden for over an hour at the White House Monday, seeking to present a unified front on an issue that Republicans are exploiting to paint a picture of chaos at the border. “The Congressional Hispanic Caucus made it very clear that the Title 42 policy is a public health emergency policy that was instituted under the Trump administration during its hate and fear anti-immigrant agenda,” Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chair Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.) told reporters following the meeting. “We are in a different position now than we were in the past,” he said. “There’s ample vaccines available. There is the ability to test and quarantine that work. And so, Title 42 should be lifted, and that we should focus on border management policy in order to make sure that they have the resources in order to move forward.” But the administration’s plans to stop enforcing Title 42 were thrown into doubt as the meeting came to a close. A Trump-appointed federal judge in Louisiana said he planned to block the administration’s plans for rescinding the public health order, a win for a group of GOP-led states who sued to stop Biden from moving forward. The meeting punctuated internal disagreement in the Democratic Party around the Biden administration’s decision to end enforcement of the Title 42 authority, a public health order that allows border officials to speedily turn away migrants at the U.S. southern border. Immigration advocates have a litany of concerns about the policy, but at the center of those issues is that it allows officials to forego asylum screenings, blocking persecuted migrants from exercising a right they have under U.S. law. While many support the Biden administration’s decision and indeed wish it had come sooner, others have expressed concern about the plans amid a prolonged spike in border crossings. “Yes they’re listening to the immigration activists, but my question is who’s listening to the men and women in green and in blue and, more importantly, who is listening to the border communities – the sheriffs, the landowners, the rest of the people who live on the border?” Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who represents a border community and has raised concerns about the policy decision, said on “Fox News Sunday.” Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), who was tasked with presenting the group’s position on Title 42 to Biden, said the meeting touched on a series of issues before turning to immigration, an issue that still led coverage of the meeting. “The reality is when you talk to Latinos they’re talking about the economy, jobs, air pollution, and so the media is talking about things that are divisive,” said Barragán. Barragán added that the CHC puts more blame over the immigration policy crisis on former President Trump than on Biden.
Judge temporarily blocks Biden’s rescission of Title 42 - A federal judge in Louisiana says he intends to block the Biden administration’s plans for rescinding Title 42, siding with GOP-led states that had asked for the courts to force the White House to temporarily retain the pandemic-era border policy. The decision from Judge Robert Summerhays, an appointee of former President Trump, will prevent the Biden administration from carrying out its plans to end Title 42 on May 23 and once again allow migrants to seek asylum. The order, though temporary, is a victory in a suit initially filed by Louisiana, Missouri and Arizona that now includes some 20 GOP-led states. It’s not yet clear what the terms of the order will be, as a summary of the hearing — which was not open to the public — said “the parties will confer regarding the specific terms to be contained in the Temporary Restraining Order and attempt to reach agreement.” Started by the Trump administration at the beginning of the pandemic, Title 42 has been used more than 1.5 million times by the Biden administration to rapidly expel migrants without letting them seek asylum. It’s something many Democrats have said is a violation of U.S. law. “The Trump-initiated Title 42 was part of his anti-immigrant hate and fear agenda that used the pandemic as an excuse to deny asylum seekers their legal rights to due process. It must end now,” Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), a member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said after the group’s meeting at the White House. The states made the request as part of a broader suit arguing the Biden administration violated the Administrative Procedures Act by failing to allow for a comment period on its revocation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, however, didn’t use such notice and comment rulemaking to put the order in place, with the Trump administration instead using a sunset clause requiring the CDC to review the order every 60 days.
Senate group to start immigration talks Thursday - A bipartisan group of senators will formally launch immigration talks on Thursday, marking the latest entry by Congress to try to capture the long-sought policy priority in recent years. The group will include Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) as well as Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), according to Durbin. All of the senators are members of the Judiciary panel. A bipartisan immigration deal is a heavy lift, particularly in an election year. But the talks likely represent Democrats’ best shot at passing a bill after hopes of including immigration reform in a sweeping Democratic-only tax and spending bill, known as Build Back Better, ran aground last year. Instead of trying to craft an agreement from scratch, the group is going to use smaller, already introduced, bipartisan immigration-related bills to try to put together a package that could get the 60 votes needed to advance through the Senate. “We’ve got a list. We’ve got a starting list. There could be some more. But it’s a starting point. I’ve talked to four or five Republican senators today. There’s a genuine interest in doing something,” Durbin said while warning against the talks becoming “top-heavy.” The meeting will be the first formal sit-down that the group has had and comes after Durbin and Tillis told The Hill earlier this month that they intended to convene an immigration gang after the two-week April break. Tillis said on Wednesday that the group was looking at “different proposals where we look like we’ve got bipartisan support.” “What you have to do obviously is you take a look at the proposals in isolation then you have to reconcile them against how you would put them together for something that would work as a package,” Tillis told The Hill. The nascent immigration talks come as lawmakers are entrenched in a fight over the administration’s decision to lift Title 42, a Trump-era pandemic public health policy that the Biden administration kept in place but now plans to lift on May 23. Crafted in the early days of the pandemic, the border policy allows rapid expulsion of migrants in the name of public health and prevents them from seeking asylum.
Biden looking to delay end to Title 42 mass expulsions of migrants at US-Mexico border -The Biden White House is looking to delay or reverse its pledge to terminate next month the policy known as Title 42, which sanctions the summary expulsion of migrants from Central and South America and the Caribbean who seek entry into the US from Mexico under the guise of combating the spread of COVID-19. With his poll numbers plummeting and a virtual revolt by Democratic lawmakers who fear losing their positions in the November midterm elections, Biden is thrashing about for the best way to capitulate to a crescendo of attacks by Trump and the Republicans on the so-called immigrant “invasion” across the southern border. The GOP has seized on the announced end of Title 42 to double down on its charge that Biden and the Democrats support “open borders” and the flooding of America with criminals, gang members and drug dealers from Central and South America. The Republicans are at the same time using their parity in the Senate and near-parity in the House to block a bill for anti-COVID resources and possibly a bill to fund more military aid to Ukraine, unless they include provisions to block the lifting of Title 42. Democrats in both chambers, including Hispanic members and others from border states, are signaling their readiness to support such amendments. The Democrats’ crisis over Title 42 has come to a head this week. On Monday, a federal district judge in Louisiana announced that he would rule in favor of 21 Republican state attorneys general who filed suit to block the lifting of Title 42 until the Department of Homeland Security presented a plan to Congress to “secure the border” following such a move. The judge said he would issue a temporary restraining order that would block any departure from the strict provisions of Title 42 prior to its being lifted, unless the Biden administration comes to an agreement with the states that had sued it. He did not, however, make clear when he would issue the order or whether it would block the removal of Title 42 itself. On the same day, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy led a group of far-right Republicans, including the fascist Marjorie Taylor Greene, to the border town of Eagle Pass, Texas. At a press conference, McCarthy said he would seek to impeach Homeland Security Director Alejandro Mayorkas should the Republicans take control of the House in November and he become House speaker. Also on Monday, Biden held a closed-door 90-minute meeting with selected members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, who deferentially praised the president and vouched for his supposed commitment to lifting Title 42. On Tuesday, Politico reported that a “senior administration official” said on a call with reporters, “If and when the court issues the TRO [temporary restraining order] the department is planning to comply with that order.” The official reportedly criticized the Republican suit on the grounds that keeping Title 42 in place would hinder the arrest, jailing and deportation of undocumented migrants and the “securing” of the border. He made what has become the main argument of the Biden administration: that mandatory expulsions encourage migrants to try to cross the border multiple times, because, unlike under the administration’s preferred method of “expedited removal,” repeat offenders cannot be criminally charged and jailed.
Administration signals student loan forgiveness decision may come soon --The tens of millions of Americans saddled with student loans may finally hear soon what the Biden administration has decided to do, if anything, on debt forgiveness. "Not a single person in this country has paid a dime on federal student loans since the president took office," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said at Monday's press briefing, referring to the suspension of interest on the debt. She went on to say that President Joe Biden "would make a decision about any cancellation of student debt before the conclusion of that pause on student loans." That pandemic-era relief staying the bills has been in effect for over two years, and it's currently scheduled to expire Aug. 31. Even before the public health crisis, repayment troubles were common among student loan borrowers. The country's outstanding education debt balance exceeded $1.7 trillion and posed a larger burden to households than credit card or auto debt. Roughly a quarter of student loan borrowers — or 10 million people — were estimated to be in delinquency or default. The financial fallout of the public health crisis has only worsened the situation, experts say. A recent study found that surveyed student loan borrowers reported a 16% likelihood of quickly missing a payment if the payment pause ended. Although Biden has expressed skepticism about sweeping student loan forgiveness in the past, another development this week suggests he may be warming up to the idea. When the topic came up Monday with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, the president indicated he was currently looking to provide some form of student debt cancellation, cancellation, according to multiple reports... Democrats and advocates have put intense pressure on the president to act ahead of the midterms, pointing out that student debt cancellation is a campaign promise he can deliver on without Congress, while much of his agenda has been stymied in the House and Senate.
Republicans take aim at Biden’s authority on student loans - Republicans have introduced legislation that seeks to put a stop to the Biden administration’s current pandemic freeze on federal student loan payments while also limiting the president’s authority to suspend repayments going forward. Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) and Republican Sens. Richard Burr (N.C.), Mike Braun (Ind.), Bill Cassidy (La.) and Roger Marshall (Kan.) introduced the bill, dubbed the “Stop Reckless Student Loan Actions Act,” on Wednesday. “As Americans continue to return to the workforce more than two years since the pandemic began, it is time for borrowers to resume repayment of student debt obligations,” Thune, the No. 2 Senate Republican, said in a statement. “Taxpayers and working families should not be responsible for continuing to bear the costs associated with this suspension of repayment. This common-sense legislation would protect taxpayers and prevent President Biden from suspending federal student loan repayments in perpetuity,” Thune continued, while adding any future suspension of loan repayments “should be left to Congress, not the Biden administration.” The bill comes as a growing number of Republicans have launched attacks on Democrats and the Biden administration over the continued pause on student loan payments, particularly as the pivotal midterm elections loom around the corner. For months, Democrats have faced mounting pressure to show progress on a push by party leaders and members seeking a broad cancellation of student debt, often pointing to issues such as the pandemic’s impact on the economy, long-standing problems in the student loan system and the disproportionate burden faced by borrowers of color. In turn, more Republicans have come out against the student loan pause, arguing the moratorium is unfair and puts an added burden on taxpayers while also benefiting borrowers with high incomes who are able to pay their debts.
Biden Says He Is Taking a ‘Hard Look’ at Student Loan Relief – NYTimes — President Biden said on Thursday that he is considering wiping out some student loan debt and will make a final decision “in the coming weeks.” “I am considering dealing with some debt reduction,” Mr. Biden said after a speech in the Roosevelt Room of the White House.The comments were the clearest signal yet from Mr. Biden that he may make good on a promise to cancel at least some debt for student loan borrowers. During the campaign in 2020, he said he would “make sure that everybody in this generation gets $10,000 knocked off of their student debt.”The White House has been under intense pressure to provide the relief through executive action, and Mr. Biden this month extended a pause on loan payments for a fourth time. But the president made clear that his decision would disappoint at least some progressive Democrats and advocates who argue that large-scale cancellation is necessary to address economic and racial disparities and want him to wipe out $50,000 or more per borrower.“I am not considering $50,000 debt reduction,” Mr. Biden said. But he added that he was “taking a hard look” at debt forgiveness.“I’ll have an answer on that in the next couple of weeks,” he said.The timeline comes after Mr. Biden discussed the issue with members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus this week in a closed-door meeting at the White House. Representative Tony Cárdenas, Democrat of California, said that Mr. Biden signaled he was open to debt forgiveness when asked if he would follow through on his $10,000 promise. In a statement, Mr. Cárdenas said he was glad to see Mr. Biden confirm that position.“The burden of debt is keeping far too many Americans from financial stability, buying homes, starting families and building their futures,” Mr. Cárdenas said. “Providing debt relief to millions of Americans is the right thing to do.”Before that meeting, the White House throughout the year had said it preferred that Congress handle student loan relief through legislation. But Senate Democrats lack the votes to help make good on Mr. Biden’s campaign promise, leaving executive action as the only pathway.The president has in the past expressed concern that forgiving $50,000 would amount to a giveaway to well-off college graduates, a position that has led to pushback from advocacy groups. “President Biden, we agree that we shouldn’t cancel $50,000 in student loan debt. We should cancel all of it,” said Wisdom Cole, the national director for the youth and college division of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, a civil rights organization. “$50,000 was just the bottom line. For the Black community, who’ve accumulated debt over generations of oppression, anything less is unacceptable.”Republican lawmakers are firmly opposed to the idea. Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the second-ranking Republican, filed a bill on Wednesday that would block Mr. Biden from canceling student debt through an executive action and end the payment pause that began in March 2020.“Any future suspension of federal student loan repayments should be left to Congress, not the Biden administration,” Mr. Thune said. Even extending the payment pause has sparked some criticism from economists who say it will add to the fastest-growing inflation in 40 years. Pausing payments gives consumers more money in their pockets to buy goods during a period of constrained supply chains, fueling price hikes that have frustrated Americans.
Joe Biden's All Malarkey All the Time | RealClearPolitics It feels like yesterday when Joe Biden promised there would be “No Malarkey” in his White House. To underscore the point, he had the words painted in giant letters on a bus he used in 2019. However you translate malarkey — “bulls–t” is the best option — it’s clear Biden broke his promise there wouldn’t be any. In fact, spreading malarkey here, there and everywhere is the hallmark of his presidency, which is why his party is in a panic.The last 16 months have provided endless examples that Biden is All Malarkey, All the Time, but last week was especially pungent. On topics ranging from inflation, the southern border, mask mandates and the war in Ukraine, the president was utterly incapable of giving a straight and honest answer. Regarding the run away prices pounding families, Biden did not accept responsibility nor pledge meaningful action. Instead, he shifted the blame game into overdrive. “Let’s be absolutely clear about why prices are high right now: COVID and Vladimir Putin,” he said in a Wednesday tweet. Soon another followed saying, “I’m doing everything I can to bring down prices and address the Putin Price Hike.” For weeks, “Putin Price Hike” has been the White House’s go-to response to inflation levels not seen in four decades. It’s an odd choice because trying to shift the blame to a foreign leader contradicts the basic thing Americans demand from their president. As the famous sign on Harry Truman’s Oval Office desk said: “The buck stops here.” But when Biden says the buck stops with Putin, he’s saying there is nothing he can do about inflation and he’s given up trying. Weakness is generally not seen as a virtue by voters, and this time is no exception. A late March poll found that 64 percent of voters blamed Biden’s policies for most inflation, while only 8 percent said his policies reduced it. So in terms of stopping inflation and escaping blame, Biden’s baloney is a two-time loser. Last week brought another malarkey moment, actually two of them, involving the federal judge’s decision that overturned the mask mandate on airlines. Biden first suggested he was fine with the decision, saying “that’s up to them” when asked if travelers should wear masks. But the next day, his administration said it would appeal the ruling. Then, asked by a reporter about the separate Title 42 issue at the border, which allows the feds to expel migrants who came from countries with communicable diseases, Biden started talking about the mask mandate. Huh? Later, he issued a statement trying to clarify the confusion he created but still didn’t answer the question about the border apocalypse he’s planning to unleash next month. Even fellow Dems are urging him to reconsider, a belated recognition of how important his open border policies will be in the midterms. Not incidentally, it’s unadulterated malarkey to say there is no COVID health crisis at the border while simultaneously arguing the crisis is so bad passengers must keep wearing masks on planes. Both can’t be true. For his latest appearance on Ukraine, the president brought an industrial-grade manure spreader. Against a backdrop of polls showing most voters think he has been too slow to help, he tried to be upbeat as he announced America issending more military equipment to fend off Putin.
Birx says she demanded White House retract Trump comment on using disinfectant against COVID - Former Trump-era COVID-19 response coordinator Deborah Birx said in an interview Monday on “Good Morning America” that she demanded that the White House retract then-President Trump’s comment on potentially using disinfectant against COVID-19.Trump’s comment, made during a briefing on April 23, 2020, during the early days of the pandemic, implied that injected disinfectant could help fight the coronavirus. “It knocks it out in a minute, one minute,” said Trump, turning to experts at the press briefing, including Birx. “And is there a way we can do something like that, like by injection inside or almost a cleaning?” Trump continued, “Because, you see, it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you don’t have to use medical doctors, but it sounds interesting to me.” Birx said she “immediately went to his most senior staff … and said this has to be reversed immediately.” “And by the next morning, the president was saying it was a joke. But I think he knew by that evening, clearly, that this was dangerous,” she added. Birx, who referred to the debacle as a “tragedy on many levels,” said that the discussion about disinfectants had occurred between Trump and a researcher who had presented data on COVID-19 prevention. “That scientist went into the Oval Office, and they started that discussion there, and they continued it in front of America,” Birx explained. Birx said that while some comments made by the Trump administration were concerning, there was a “dichotomy” between what was being said and what was being done. “So when the president was talking about decreasing testing he was signing defense production acts of billions of dollars to increase testing,” she said. “So that was my metric,” Birx continued. “Are we making progress on the core parameters that I think are critical to save American lives?”
Raskin responds to ‘chilling’ report Pence refused to leave Capitol on Jan. 6 - Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), a member of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, on Monday responded to a report that former Vice President Mike Pence refused to leave the Capitol during the attack, referring to Pence’s quoted words during the moment as “chilling.” According to an excerpt of the forthcoming book “I Alone Can Fix It” by journalists Carol Leonnig and Philip Rucker that was published by The Washington Post, Pence expressed hesitancy to leave the Capitol to his security detail.“I’m not getting in the car, Tim,” Pence told Tim Giebels, his team’s lead special agent, according to the book. “I trust you, Tim, but you’re not driving the car,” he added. “If I get in that vehicle, you guys are taking off. I’m not getting in the car.”During an appearance on MSNBC’s “All In With Chris Hayes,” Raskin recounted how former President Trump and other officials tried to coerce Pence into rejecting the certification of the Electoral College vote showing President Biden’s 2020 victory.“So there were all of these different efforts going on. And then it finally came down to everything focused on Mike Pence. … That was the Hail Mary play or what they were calling the Green Bay Sweep,” Raskin told Hayes. “They were going to throw everything in there at Mike Pence, and they were going to try to pressure him and coerce him into rejecting Electoral College votes … in a way that would set the stage for a failure of a majority in the Electoral College and then kicking the whole thing into the House of Representatives under the 12th Amendment for a so-called contingent election.”
Donald Trump cited for civil contempt for failing to comply with subpoena - On Monday, New York Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron held former President Donald Trump in civil contempt for failing to comply with a December 2021 subpoena requiring him to turn over documents requested by New York Attorney General Leticia James. The subpoena was part of a long-running financial fraud investigation into the Trump Organization and other Trump family businesses. “Mr. Trump: I know you take your business seriously, and I take mine seriously,” Engoron said prior to issuing his contempt ruling. This is the second time in the last two months the judge has ruled against Trump. Last month, Engoron rejected a bid from Trump, Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump Jr. to quash a separate subpoena compelling their testimony as part of James’ civil investigation into the Trump business empire. In court on Monday, Andrew Amer, an attorney for James’ office, said that they had “received zero documents” from Trump, despite ordering Trump to turn over “the files located in cabinets outside Mr. Trump’s office,” “the storage room by Mr. Trump’s office,” “the Executive Office storage closet” and “the file cabinets located on the 25th and 26th floors.” The New York Times reported that earlier this April, James’ office filed a motion claiming that Trump had refused to turn over the requested documents. The attorney general cited eight separate requests Trump had defied and asked that he be fined $10,000 a day as long as he refused to cooperate. In finding Trump in contempt, Judge Engoron agreed to assess the requested fine of $10,000 a day until Trump complied. For the billionaire Trump, who has raised over $124 million through his “Save America” group since November 2020, according to Federal Election Commission filings analyzed by Reuters, the fine is insignificant.
Trump appeals ruling, fine over failure to comply with subpoena - Former U.S. President Donald Trump has appealed a $10,000-a-day fine and a judge's contempt ruling over his failure to comply with a subpoena for documents in a case about his business practices, his lawyer said on Wednesday. In a court filing with New York state's Appellate Division, attorney Alina Habba said Trump had "proffered a timely response to the subpoena." Judge Arthur Engoron on Monday imposed the fine and held Trump in civil contempt for "repeated failures" to hand over materials to Attorney General Letitia James for her three-year-old investigation into whether the Trump Organization improperly valued assets to obtain financial benefits. Habba said she would ask the appellate court to review whether the fine "serves any purpose as either a compensatory or coercive remedy," arguing that James failed to show her office was harmed by Trump's conduct. The Republican former president denies wrongdoing and has called the probe by the Democratic state attorney general politically motivated. Habba, said during a court hearing in Manhattan on Monday that Trump did not have any of the documents James had requested.Engoron said he would fine Trump $10,000 per day until he complies with the subpoena. The judge said Trump did not provide enough evidence that he conducted a thorough search for the documents.
DeSantis signs controversial voting bill, creates election crimes office -Gov. Ron DeSantis asked the Legislature to create an office within the executive branch that would have the power to investigate and enforce election related crimes. Republican leaders took his idea, scaled it back and delivered a bill the governor signed into law on Monday. The sweeping measure, Senate Bill 524:
- Establishes the 25-person Office of Election Crimes and Security under the Secretary of State’s office to look into voting irregularities or illegalities. (DeSantis initially called for a unit of 45 sworn investigators.)
- Bans ranked-choice voting statewide, including in cities and counties. In a ranked-choice voting system, voters rank candidates by preference on their ballots rather than selecting just one.
- Makes a series of tweaks to election procedures and stiffens criminal penalties for certain activities such as “ballot harvesting.” That is the practice of one person or organization collecting a number of completed mail ballots from other people and delivering them to an elections office or drop box.
- Requires elections supervisors to clean up voter rolls annually, rather than every other year. Cleaning up the voter rolls entails removing deceased persons from the roll, checking the status of inactive voters or voters whose addresses may have changed.
“I don’t think there’s any other place in the country where you should have more confidence that your vote counts than in the state of Florida,” DeSantis said at a bill signing event at Rookies Sports Bar & Grill in Spring Hill. The push to crack down on election-related crimes comes as former President Donald Trump, the standard-bearer in the Republican Party, continues to mislead the public about the results of the election he lost in 2020. Although Trump has alleged fraud in several swing states, he has produced no hard evidence to show fraud on a scale that would have tipped the election away from the victor, President Joe Biden.
‘Russophobic’ Mark Zuckerberg and 28 others banned from Russia - Russia barred entry to Meta Platform’s Mark Zuckerberg and 28 other Americans, a symbolic retaliation for US sanctions against its top officials and business figures. The latest Russian “stop list” includes US Vice-President Kamala Harris alongside White House, Pentagon and state department officials and the ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, the foreign ministry said in a statement on Thursday. The “top officials, executives, experts and journalists who shape the Russophobic agenda, as well as the spouses of a number of high-ranking officials” are being barred from Russia in response to US sanctions, the ministry said. In March, in an accelerating crackdown on the media and internet aimed at controlling information on its invasion of Ukraine, Russia banned Meta’s Facebook and Instagram services, calling them “extremist” organisations. The government has threatened to bar YouTube. The extremist label capped a year of pressure on US technology companies as regulators levied fines and slowed access in an effort to force the firms to allow the government to determine what is acceptable content. Russia in March passed a new law punishing the intentional spreading of what authorities deem “fake” news with as much as 15 years in prison. The Kremlin’s propaganda efforts have been aimed at minimising the scale of the war in Ukraine, which it calls a “special military operation.” Russia also announced retaliatory sanctions on Canadian government officials and journalists Thursday, including central bank governor Tiff Macklem, just days after Canada sanctioned his Russian counterpart, Elvira Nabiullina. The reprisals covered senior government and military officials such as the prime minister’s chief of staff. But Moscow also listed the mayors of Toronto and Ottawa, an assortment of newspaper columnists, and the head of Canada’s public broadcaster.
Elon Musk to buy Twitter for $44 billion - Twitter on Monday reached an agreement to sell itself to Elon Musk for approximately $44 billion, leaving one of the world’s richest men in control of one of the most influential social media platforms. The price per share agreed in Monday’s deal is higher than the roughly $48 that the company was trading at before Musk first announced his stake, but significantly lower than the $70 shares were trading at last year. Musk has said that he views the acquisition of Twitter as way to protect free speech, declaring during a conference earlier this month that the offer was “not a way to sort of make money.” “Free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy, and Twitter is the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated,” Musk said in a statement on Monday. One person unmoved by the news of Musk’s Twitter buy: Former President Trump.Trump told Fox News that he will not be returning to Twitter even if invited back on post-acquisition. Speaking to FOXNews.com, Trump said that he would stay on his own platform, Truth Social. He added, “I hope Elon buys Twitter because he’ll make improvements to it and he is a good man, but I am going to be staying on Truth…” The NAACP on Monday issued a statement from its president, Derrick Johnson, calling for former President Trump to remain off the social media platform Twitter following Elon Musk’s purchase of the company. “Mr. Musk: free speech is wonderful, hate speech is unacceptable. Disinformation, misinformation and hate speech have NO PLACE on Twitter,” the statement said, shortly after it was announced that the Tesla CEO had reached a deal to purchase Twitter. “Do not allow 45 to return to the platform. Do not allow Twitter to become a petri dish for hate speech, or falsehoods that subvert our democracy,” the civil rights group’s memo added, referencing Trump and saying that “lives are at risk, and so is American democracy.” Trump was permanently banned from Twitter in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol
Bezos questions possibility of Chinese influence after Musk’s Twitter acquisition -In a tweet posted Monday evening, Amazon founder and executive chairman Jeff Bezosquestioned the possibility of Chinese influence on Twitter after fellow billionaire and Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s recent purchase of Twitter.Bezos responded to a tweet by New York Times reporter Mike Forsythe outlining links between Musk and China.“Tesla’s second-biggest market in 2021 was China (after the US),” the tweet read, noting that “Chinese battery makers are major suppliers for Tesla’s EVs” and that “After 2009, when China banned Twitter, the government there had almost no leverage over the platform.”“That may have just changed,” wrote Forsythe. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, quote-tweeted the message, writing, “Interesting question. Did the Chinese government just gain a bit of leverage over the town square?”
Elon Musk: Twitter employees raise questions about takeover in all-hands meeting - Elon Musk is officially set to buy Twitter, and the company's employees have questions.At an all-hands meeting Monday afternoon with CEO Parag Agrawal and Board Chair Bret Taylor, Twitter employees raised questions about everything from what the deal would mean for their compensation to whether former US President Donald Trump would be let back on the platform, according to audio of the call obtained by CNN.The call comes after Twitter's board announced on Monday that it had reached a deal to sell the company to Musk for $54.20 per share. The deal caps off a stunning news cycle in which the Tesla and SpaceX CEO became one of Twitter's largest shareholders, was offered and turned down a seat on its board and bid to buy the company — all in less than a month — and puts the world's richest man in charge of one of the most influential social networks. It also raises big questions about how Musk's proposed changes for the platform, including loosening content restrictions, will take shape.Agrawal, who has been in charge of Twitter for only four months, told employees not to expect big changes before the deal closes, which is set to happen before the end of this year. He also said that "there are no plans for any layoffs at this point" and that Twitter's remote work policies will continue until the deal closes."Between now and closing ... we will continue making decisions as we've always had, guided by the principles we've had," he said. "That doesn't mean things won't change, things have been changing ... I have been talking about driving positive change at the company, and I will continue doing so because it makes us better and it makes us stronger. Once the deal closes, different decisions might be made."Agrawal said that Twitter's leadership would seek to find time for employees to ask questions directly of Musk. He added that he expects to spend time with Musk and will tell the billionaire about the principles that have guided Twitter's decisions.
LGBTQ+ Twitter users contemplate exit amid Elon Musk takeover – Several LGBTQ+ Twitter users on Monday suggested they would be deactivating their accounts and leaving the platform that sold for $44 billion to tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has in the past used his own Twitter account to misgender users and post content accused of being transphobic.The Tesla CEO’s open disdain for what he has called big tech censorship has prompted some LGBTQ+ users to consider leaving Twitter in fear that a Musk takeover would mean re-platforming accounts like the Babylon Bee or Charlie Kirk that were suspended for violating Twitter rules against hate speech. It’s a concern shared not only by users, but media watchdogs. “The sale of Twitter to Elon Musk would be a victory for disinformation and the people who peddle it. Musk could unleash a wave of toxicity and harassment and undo Twitter’s efforts to increase quality engagement and make its platform safer for users,” staff for Media Matters, a left-leaning media non profit, wrote Monday. Erin Reed, a prominent LGBTQ+ activist with a Twitter following nearing 44,000, said the platform has been instrumental in communicating and organizing with other advocates and interacting directly with legislators. But Reed, who mostly uses her account to sound the alarm on anti-LGBTQ+ legislation moving across the country, told Changing America that she and others are considering at least a partial departure from the platform over negative comments made by Musk about LGBTQ+ people, particularly transgender and nonbinary people.“There will be at least some migration off the platform,” she said.
‘Elon, There Are Rules’: EU Says Twitter Must Comply With New Digital Services Act --The European Union on Tuesday warned Elon Musk that Twitter, now owned by Tesla’s chief executive, must comply with the bloc’s new law that aims to halt the online spread of hate speech and other illicit content, or risk substantial fines or a continent-wide ban—possibly foreshadowing a global regulatory fight over the social media platform.“If Twitter does not comply with our law, there are sanctions.”Less than 24 hours after Musk bought Twitter in a $44 billion deal, E.U. internal market commissioner Thierry Breton delivered a stark message to the world’s richest man via the Financial Times.Breton’s comments come just days after lawmakers in Brussels approved the Digital Services Act, a landmark piece of legislation that seeks to minimize the harmful effects associated with social media and e-commerce by requiring Big Tech firms to remove content and products deemed illegal by E.U. member states.During a Tuesday news briefing, European Commission spokesperson Johannes Bahrke reminded Musk that “our Digital Services Act applies to all major platforms, to ensure their power over public debate is subject to democratically validated rules to better protect fundamental rights online.” When Musk took control of Twitter on Monday, he called free speech “the bedrock of a functioning democracy” and described the Silicon Valley-based app on which hundreds of millions of people rely for news as “the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated.” Journalist Anand Giridharadas countered that Musk is “doing is what plutocrats have been doing… branding themselves the solution to the very problem they are.” In his pitch to take over Twitter, Musk, a self-described “free speech absolutist” who has used the app to attack regulators and critics, vowed to weaken content moderation on the site. Republican lawmakers are hopefulthat under Musk’s ownership, Twitter could reinstate former President Donald Trump, who was banned for repeatedly violating the platform’s rules governing hate speech and misinformation, culminating in the January 6 Capitol insurrection. Breton, meanwhile, said that he wanted to give Musk a “reality check” before he loosened any of the platform’s content moderation policies. If Twitter fails to comply with the Digital Services Act, the E.U. commissioner warned, it could be prohibited in Europe. “Anyone who wants to benefit from this market will have to fulfill our rules,” Breton told FT. “The board [of Twitter] will have to make sure that if it operates in Europe it will have to fulfill the obligations, including moderation, open algorithms, freedom of speech, transparency in rules, obligations to comply with our own rules for hate speech, revenge porn, [and] harassment.” “If [Twitter] does not comply with our law,” he added, “there are sanctions—6% of the revenue and, if they continue, banned from operating in Europe.”
Elon Musk will owe Twitter $1 billion if he can't secure financing -Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, could be required to pay Twitter a termination fee of $1 billion, under some circumstances, such as if Musk fails to secure enough debt funding to complete his $44 billion deal to buy the company, according to a new SEC filing.From the filing (Parent refers to the special corporation Musk created to buy Twitter): As described above, if the conditions to Parent's and Acquisition Sub's obligations to complete the Merger are satisfied and Parent fails to consummate the Merger as required pursuant to the Merger Agreement, including because the equity, debt and/or margin loan financing is not funded, Parent will be required to pay Twitter a termination fee of $1.0 billion.On the other hand, Twitter will owe Elon Musk a $1 billion break-up fee should it fall through because it found a competing offer or if shareholders reject the deal according to the same filing.Musk offered to buy the company at $54.20 per share and take it private. He's said Twitter should operate as a digital public square that is tolerant of different viewpoints.
YouTube's huge miss shows digital media ad market is getting hit hard --During the pandemic, YouTube was one of Alphabet's prime growth engines as more people were glued to their screens while stuck at home. The video site continued its rapid expansion last year as the economy reopened and ad spending soared. At least for one quarter, the music has stopped.Ahead of its first-quarter earnings report on Tuesday, Alphabet was expected to report growth at YouTube of 25%. That number came in way short at 14%, contributing to a broader revenue and earnings miss and a steep drop in Alphabet's stock.YouTube's numbers are the latest sign that the digital media ad market is getting hit hard in an inflationary environment and amid rising concerns about deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. Last week, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel said the first quarter was "challenging" for the YouTube competitor, and the company provided a weak sales forecast for the second quarter.For both YouTube and Snap, there's a growing juggernaut taking market share: TikTok. Meanwhile, other media companies large and small are rolling out video and streaming services that are competing for consumer eyeballs.Add it up and YouTube advertising revenue of $6.87 billion trailed the $7.51 billion Wall Street expected, according to StreetAccount."While the company's search and cloud businesses performed well in Q1, its YouTube video business fell well below analysts' forecasts, driven down by increased competition from social video platforms like TikTok and a plethora of premium entertainment services led by Disney+," wrote Paul Verna, an analyst at Insider Intelligence, in an email after the report.Nearly a year ago — in the second quarter of 2021 — YouTube revenue came in at over $7 billion, up 83% from the year prior, drawing it close to Netflix's quarterly revenue. The disappointing results at YouTube in the latest period pulled down Alphabet's profitability, contributing to a drop in net income.
Deep-Junk-Rated Carvana Gets $4.5 Billion from New Investors, after Shares Collapsed by 79%, Hoping the World Hasn’t Run out of Greater Fools Yet – Wolf Richter - Carvana, which sells used cars online, is rated deep-junk, and has been losing a ton of money every year, even in the hottest used-car market ever, and whose shares collapsed by 79% from the peak in August last year, now needs to extract more cash from investors to fuel its cash-burn machine and to pay for the $2.2 billion acquisition of Adesa.Adesa runs wholesale auto auctions and provides related services through brick-and-mortar venues around the US and Canada. Its customers include the biggest used-car dealers that buy and sell at these auctions, and automakers that sell their rental program cars at these auctions.The fact that a large used-car dealer buys an auto auction house that caters to other used-car dealers and automakers is a problem. Those other used-car dealers compete with Carvana, and they can buy their cars at other auctions. And the automakers can sell their program cars at other auctions. And now there are already rumors that they’re thinking about severing their relationship with Adesa following the purchase by Carvana. This would be a new nightmare for Carvana, after spending $2.2 billion on that deal.So Carvana needs $2.2 billion to fund the Adesa purchase, and it needs tons of money to fund its cash-burn machine. And now we know how and how much it’s going to raise.Carvana [CVNA] is offering new securities last week and this week, that total $4.5 billion, with something for everyone:A preferred stock offering of $1 billion, in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers. This was announced on April 20. A common stock offering of $1.25 billion, first announced last week.Today, it disclosed that it priced the 15.625 million shares at $80, for proceeds of $1.225 billion after underwriter discounts but before expenses. Priced at $80, the offering reflects a 79% collapse from the peak in August last year:A junk-bond offering of $2.275 billion, whose final details wereannounced today, of senior unsecured notes maturing in 2030. Moody’s today rated the bonds Caa2, which is deep junk and only two notches above C, which designates default on Moody’s scale (my cheat sheet for corporate credit ratings by ratings agency).Carvana already had $5.8 billion in debt at the end of last year, composed of $3.6 billion in long-term debt and $2.2 billion in short-term debt. That is a lot of leverage already. Now it is adding to it.Moody’s today downgraded Carvana’s overall corporate credit rating by one notch to Caa1, which is three notches above Moody’s designation for default.
Democratic senators take aim at Zelle and its bank owners amid growing fraud scrutiny Two top Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee are demanding information from the bank-owned parent company behind Zelle detailing the payment network’s efforts to combat customer fraud. Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bob Menendez of New Jersey are the latest players in Washington to scrutinize Zelle, which has combated accusations allowing widespread fraud on its platform as it has grown in popularity in recent years. “We write regarding disturbing reports of a rise in fraud and scams on your online peer-to-peer money transfer platform Zelle, and the ongoing failure by Zelle or the banks that own this service to address these scams and provide appropriate redress to defrauded consumers,” Warren and Menendez said in a letter dated April 25.
Fincen needs more funding to speed up AML overhaul, acting director says - — The acting director of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network pleaded with Congress to provide more robust funding as the agency implements ambitious reforms of the nation’s anti-money- laundering legal framework. Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, acting Director Himamauli Das fielded a wide array of questions from lawmakers, many of which focused on Fincen’s ongoing effort to implement the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020. While maintaining that the agency was doing the best it could with the resources it has, Das repeatedly emphasized the need for Fincen to receive millions more in funding from Congress to be able to hire full-time staff and effectively carry out its various mandates.
Deutsche Bank searched over anti-money-laundering report -Deutsche Bank's offices in Frankfurt are being searched by law enforcement authorities over reports about potential money laundering that were filed by the lender.Police were at the bank’s headquarters Friday following a decision by a Frankfurt court. Officials from the prosecutor's office, the regulator BaFin and Germany’s BKA federal police are involved, according to a spokeswoman for the prosecutors.Authorities are conducting the search to find out whether the bank was late filing a suspicious activity report in a case several years ago, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked for anonymity discussing internal information.
JPMorgan sued after millions stolen drom Ray-Ban maker funds - J.P. Morgan Chase Bank N.A. was sued by a unit of the French maker of Ray-Ban glasses, which claims the bank ignored red flags as international cybercriminals drained $272 million from its New York bank account. Essilor Manufacturing (Thailand) Co. said J.P. Morgan was aware, beginning in September 2019, of a “highly suspicious pattern of fraudulent transactions” but didn’t notify the company. Red flags included a jump in monthly dollar volume from $15 million to more than $100 million and money being moved to shell companies at regional banks, often in high-risk jurisdictions, EMTC said in the complaint filed Monday in federal court in Manhattan.
JPMorgan billion-dollar advisor accuses bank of misogyny in U.S. complaint - A JPMorgan Chase financial advisor filed a federal workplace complaint accusing the bank of harboring a culture of “unchecked greed, avarice and misogyny” and undermining her by excluding her from client meetings and taking away her resources. Gwen Campbell, who brought $1.1 billion in assets when she moved to JPMorgan in 2020, was subjected to “name-calling” and “sexist decrees,” according to her complaint filed with the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission on Friday. “Among other things, Campbell has been yelled at and belittled, called ‘a nobody’ and ‘confused’ and told to ‘settle down’ and ‘be nice,' " her lawyers said in the complaint. JPMorgan didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Campbell sued the bank in December in federal court alleging that private bankers in a different unit have been “ruthlessly” poaching her clients. She dropped the lawsuit the same month to instead pursue claims against the bank in arbitration after a judge denied her request to temporarily bar fellow bankers at JPMorgan from soliciting business with clients she brought with her when she was recruited from Bank of America.
Citigroup freed from decade-old regulatory sanction - The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency lifted a 10-year-old consent order with Citigroup in a victory for Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser, who’s dedicated thousands of employees to improving her bank’s risk and controls systems. In a memo to staff obtained by Bloomberg, Fraser gave an update on the 2012 order, which was tied to the bank’s compliance with anti-money-laundering laws and the Bank Secrecy Act. In the original order, the OCC had said that Citigroup failed to conduct proper due diligence on customers and was too slow to file suspicious-activity reports. The deficiencies prevented the lender from identifying risky customers and monitoring client relationships, the regulator said at the time. “The lifting of the consent order gives us confidence that we can address long-standing issues in our risk and control environment," Citi CEO Jane Fraser said. The OCC’s decision to lift the order is a win for Citigroup, which has been working to address two other consent orders with the OCC and the Federal Reserve stemming from 2020. That work involves more than 9,000 employees and an overhaul of risk and controls systems. “We have worked very hard to remediate the issues identified in the OCC’s consent order by strengthening internal controls, independent testing and how we conduct due diligence,” Fraser said in the memo. “The lifting of the consent order gives us confidence that we can address long-standing issues in our risk and control environment as we push forward with the transformation.” A spokeswoman for the bank confirmed the contents of the memo but declined to comment further. An OCC spokesperson declined to comment.
Republicans call for U.S. Senate to terminate Citi contract over abortion policy — Republican lawmakers demanded that the U.S. Senate end its business relationship with Citigroup in retaliation for the bank’s policy of paying travel expenses for employees' out-of-state abortions. Republicans, led by Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., in a letter dated Thursday called on the Senate sergeant-at-arms to terminate the contract that allows Citibank to provide business credit cards to lawmakers, legislative committees and other Senate offices. Citi’s abortion-travel policy, announced last month, came amid a wave of restrictive abortion laws passed in Republican-led states over the past year. Citi said it would offer employees “travel benefits to facilitate access to adequate resources” as a result of “changes in reproductive healthcare laws in certain states,” according to a proxy statement sent to shareholders in mid-March.
Pandemic shows risks posed by nonbanks: Yellen — In a speech defending the Biden administration’s deployment of pandemic aid, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the risks she said nonbanks pose to the financial system. “The crisis revealed that significant vulnerabilities in the nonbank financial sector had not been addressed,” she said. Yellen said that the Financial Stability Oversight Council and the Biden administration are “working to mitigate these remaining threats.”
Wall Street faces key votes on new fossil fuel financing - Investors at four major U.S. banks will get the chance this week to tell the firms’ top brass what they think of the lenders’ continued financing of new fossil fuel production.Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are scheduled in the coming days to host their annual shareholder meetings amid rising scrutiny of Wall Street pledges to hit net-zero emissions by 2050.Shareholder advocates this year have filed resolutions at each of the lenders calling on them to stop providing financing for companies that are expanding fossil fuel production. That’s their big push this year because according to the International Energy Agency’s net-zero road map, new fossil fuel development is incompatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The pact calls for preventing global temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. Observers will be watching the meetings closely to see whether the firms’ investors — including major pension funds and money managers — agree.If they do, and a significant percentage of shareholders back the proposals, it wouldn’t necessarily force the banks to do anything. But it would send a strong signal to Wall Street executives about what their own investors make of their businesses’ climate bona fides.“The science is clear that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and averting the worst impacts of the climate crisis means stopping the expansion of fossil fuels immediately,” the Sierra Club’s Adele Shraiman said in a statement.“Banks must adjust their practices accordingly,” Shraiman added, “and it’s up to their shareholders — especially BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street — to hold them accountable.”In addition to the four firms with meetings this week, the proposal on new fossil fuel financing also was filed at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley, which have set their annual meetings for next month.Three of the six firms — JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup — requested that the SEC allow them to ignore the proposal. The SEC denied each of the requests (Climatewire, March 30).It’s too soon to say where different shareholders will fall on the resolutions, which were filed by Trillium Asset Management, the Sierra Club Foundation, Harrington Asset Management and Boston Common Asset Management. But some investors and outside advisory groups already have weighed in. The New York State Common Retirement Fund, for instance, which is the third largest pension fund in the United States, said earlier this month that it would back the proposal. In a “notice of exempt solicitation” filed with the SEC, New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli called on other investors to follow suit.
US gas prices are over $4 a gallon. These oil CEOs took home over $20m -While gas prices soar for consumers, one group of people isn’t faring so badly.Chief executives from the largest oil and gas companies received nearly $45m more in combined total compensation in 2021 as compared to 2020 amid the steep rise in gasoline prices across the US over the last year, a new report states.Twenty-eight major oil and gas companies, such as Shell, Exxon, BP and Marathon Petroleum, gave out $394m in total to their chief executives in 2021, according to an exclusive analysis provided to the Guardian.Among the highest earners were Michael Hennigan of Marathon Petroleum, who received over $21m – $5m more than 2020 – and Darren Woods of Exxon, who received over $23m – $7m more than 2020.These figures reflect the companies’ massive earnings, brought about largely by the boost in gas prices in the last year. Gas prices experienced a 50% rise in 2021, reaching the highest they have been since 2014. Fuel prices have only continued to climb, hitting an average of $4.12 a gallon in the past few months.At Shell, chief executive and chief financial officer raises were made for their “significant personal contributions … in delivering the strategic progress of 2021”, said Curtis Smith, Head of Americas Media Relations at Shell, in an email to the Guardian. Shell’s boss, Ben Buerden, received a $2m raise in 2021.Shell’s profits quadrupled and BP’s net profit rose to an eight-year high in 2021, while Exxon reported its highest profits since 2017 in the last quarter of 2021.“Americans will not soon forget that when they were struggling to fill their tanks, oil and gas companies made record profits and decided to give that money to wealthy industry executives and shareholders rather than stabilizing gas prices,” said Kyle Herrig, president of government watchdog Accountable, which produced the report.The oil industry has defended surging fuel prices on the grounds of a spike in crude oil costs, inadequate supplies for a sudden hike in fuel demand after a lull during the pandemic and, more recently, the Russia-Ukraine war.The Biden administration has accused big oil of price gouging. The US was actually a net exporter of petroleum in 2021, and also boosted overall crude production. At the same time, although crude oil costs dropped over the last month, prices at the pump across the US still remained markedly high.
Wall Street firms make crypto push to catch up with 'cool kids' - On Wall Street, Jefferies Financial Group is expanding banking services for crypto clients, BlackRock is backing a stablecoin firm while Goldman Sachs is ramping up crypto trading. There’s even a former bank executive who switched his LinkedIn profile — to an avatar. The moves by financial heavyweights — and one banker’s profile reinvention — underscore how far Wall Street firms have come in accepting cryptocurrencies. For years, executives at banks and money managers were some of the industry’s most vociferous dissenters, until soaring prices and a flood of investor money drove home the point that staying on the sidelines meant missing out. But as demand rises, that earlier resistance could impede Wall Street’s latest efforts to stay competitive, just as regulatory uncertainty and internal compliance cloud expansion plans. Goldman Chief Executive David Solomon said this month the bank was taking its cue from regulators, calling their guidance “very restrictive and very, very small.” “Banks are forever going to be trying to play catch-up,” said Michael Moro, CEO of the digital currency prime brokerage Genesis. “Crypto is going to move way faster than banks can. We have every bank in the world pretty much having some sort of crypto, blockchain working group.” Institutional investors traded $1.14 trillion of cryptocurrencies last year on the largest U.S. crypto exchange, Coinbase Global, a ninefold increase from 2020. Main Street’s deepening uptake has intensified scrutiny: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cautioned this month about potential excesses or systemic risks stemming from a market where financial transactions use crypto and blockchain, while President Biden in March issued the first executive order targeted at digital tokens to help address possible hazards. On Wall Street, efforts made over the past year or so are coming to fruition. Jefferies, which already provides leverage finance, equity capital markets and convertible bond issuance services for crypto clients, plans to expand in the next couple of months as demand rises, said Alexander Yavorsky, the firm’s global joint head of financial institutions.This month, BlackRock joined a $400 million funding round in the stablecoin firm Circle and struck a partnership with the company to explore capital-markets use of USD Coin, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar. Earlier this year the trading powerhouse Citadel Securities won its first outside investment from two Silicon Valley investors with crypto expertise.And Goldman, which traded its first over-the-counter Bitcoin options in March, has a digital-assets team working on trading, the tokenization of traditional asset classes and strategic investments among other initiatives, according to a webinar with clients this month.
Congress members tiptoeing into crypto raise conflict concerns -As efforts to regulate the rapidly growing cryptocurrency market increase, some observers are raising concerns about the rising number of U.S. lawmakers beginning to dabble in digital assets.Current members of Congress bought and sold an estimated $1.8 million worth of crypto-related investments since the beginning of 2021, according to an analysis conducted by the data provider 2iQ Research. The findings come amid a broader backlash against members of Congress being able to trade securities while in office. In the case of crypto, the debate is taking place as the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are still staking out their roles in regulating the asset class. The tug-of-war puts committees like Senate Banking and Agriculture, which oversee the SEC and CFTC, in a position to address crypto-regulation policy.
CFPB invokes authority to examine nonbanks, fintechs -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it will conduct supervisory exams of nonbank fintech companies that pose risks to consumers as Director Rohit Chopra seeks to level the regulatory playing field with supervised banks. The CFPB said Monday that it is invoking a little-used legal authority to examine nonbank financial companies that pose risks to consumers. Invoking its authority will allow the bureau to supervise entities that may be fast-growing or are in markets outside its existing nonbank supervision program. The CFPB also is seeking public comment on the procedural rule to make the process of supervising nonbanks more transparent.
Senate Republicans grill CFPB's Chopra over FDIC board brouhaha - Rohit Chopra's first appearance before the Senate Banking Committee since being confirmed as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Republican members made clear that they view him as the chief architect of a “hostile takeover” of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. late last year. Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, led the charge by calling the CFPB “more out of control than ever,” and claiming that Chopra had “recklessly destroyed institutional norms” at the FDIC. Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., was among the Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee who questioned Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Rohit Chopra for his role in advancing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s request for comment on bank mergers late last year. Toomey even went so far as to quote King Louis XIV of France, who famously said “L’etat c’est moi,” which roughly translates as “I am the state.“
CFPB's crackdown on 'junk fees' smacks of price fixing, lenders say -A proposal by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to crack down on so-called junk fees has raised the ire of bankers, credit unions and lenders that claim the request smacks of price fixing and regulatory overreach.Bankers have raised a flurry of objections to CFPB Director Rohit Chopra’s request for information in January on what the agency called “exploitative junk fees” that produce billions in income for financial institutions.Chopra told lawmakers this week that he i ntends to reopen past rules to examine late fees on credit cards — and potentially on other products — setting the stage for a showdown with major banks, trade groups and their lobbyists.
CFPB's Chopra plans to revisit the CARD Act, older regulations -CFPB Director Rohit Chopra told Congress he will look at whether existing regulations still make sense. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra told lawmakers Wednesday that the bureau plans to revisit and update older regulations such as the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act, known as the CARD Act, to lower credit card fees. Chopra announced the move at a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, where he fielded tough questions about the bureau’s plans to collect data on small business loans, crack down on so-called junk fees and address fraud in payment networks. “We want to make sure that credit cards are a competitive market ... [so] I am asking the [CFPB] staff to look at whether we should reopen the Card Act rules that were promulgated by the Federal Reserve Board over 10 years ago, to be able to look at some of these older rules we inherited, to determine whether there needs to be any changes,” Chopra said.
BankThink: The CFPB: A regulator gone rogue | American Banker - CFPB Director Rohit Chopra is overstepping his authority, Rob Nichols of the American Bankers Association argues. Since arriving at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau last October, Director Rohit Chopra has been busy. Under his leadership, the CFPB has issued nearly 60 press releases as well as multiple reports and blog posts, many critical of the banking industry I represent. Behind the public relations blizzard and the CFPB’s campaign-like demonization of financial services lurks a troubling strategy: An unelected federal regulator is seeking to shortcut the traditional regulatory process, opting instead to use over-the-top rhetoric and unfair, deceptive and abusive methods to trumpet a politicized enforcement binge. It’s a power grab that should concern every American, especially members of Congress who created the bureau more than a decade ago and will have the opportunity this week to question the director when he testifies on Capitol Hill. Director Chopra knows the agency and its limitations well, which is why his plan is being carefully choreographed. He started with a national media campaign to brand almost any fee associated with banking — even those closely regulated by the CFPB — as “junk fees.” The campaign is little more than a PR effort designed to confuse the public about the well-disclosed fees they currently pay and to undercut an industry simply following the regulator’s own rules.
Waters’ proposed legislation would benefit underbanked communities | American Banker - "Credit unions understand the impact of having physical locations to close the financial inequality gap and offer in-person support," writes B. Dan Berger. One thing we’ve all learned over the past two years is that the coronavirus pandemic impacted every corner of the entire world. In the United States, we know that COVID-19 took an enormous toll on our health and safety, while crushing local economies and devastating already underserved communities. At a time when leadership and guidance from financial institutions was critical, a number of banks across the country turned their backs on Main Street America and began closing their doors in communities already suffering from financial and other disparities.A recent report from the National Community Reinvestment Coalition found that while families and Main Street small businesses were desperate for financial support and counsel, America’s banks took advantage of the crisis to accelerate the pace of their already planned branch closures, escalating the formation rate of banking deserts. Since March 2020, banks have closed more than 4,000 branches across the country. At 201 closures per month, they doubled their closure rate, which — for the past 10 years — averaged around 99 per month. The NCRC also says that over the past five years, one-third of these closures were concentrated in low- to middle-income and minority neighborhoods.In stark contrast, during the same period credit unions increased their presence in these communities by 2.4%. Furthermore, data from the National Credit Union Administrationshows that credit union branches remained at the same levels throughout the first year of the pandemic, and that more than 730 credit unions continued plans to add branches to their networks. Public data shows that from 2012 to 2021, the presence of megabanks in rural and underserved areas across the country, where branch availability is crucial to ending inequalities in access to financial services, is down 10.8%.A recent Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report reaffirms the detriment bank branch closures have on consumers in rural communities. According to the report, continued bank consolidations and closures are hurting those who lack access to banking in rural areas and who are dependent on physical bank branches or “have less access to the internet and online banking options and are more likely to live in banking deserts.” The CFPB recognizes that credit unions are doing their part to expand financial equity while banks continue to abandon these communities in need.Citing a mass movement toward online and mobile banking options as one of the many justifications for their brick-and-mortar closures, megabanks have failed to acknowledge and address the widening pockets of underbanked areas. The result of these closures continues to undermine consumer financial equity and stunt small business growth.According to research from the American Economic Association, the rise of bank closures has led to a persistent decline in local small-business lending, rippling negative effects into local communities within a six-mile vicinity. The decline in local credit also leads to a 2-percentage-point reduction in employment growth rates.Unlike megabanks, credit unions understand the impact of having physical locations to close the financial inequality gap and offer in-person support. This is why the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions supports Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters’ recently introduced legislation, the Expanding Financial Access for Underserved Communities Act, which will continue to support credit unions and their long-established efforts to eliminate financial disparities in underserved communities across our country.
Wells Fargo confirms mortgage staff layoffs --Wells Fargo confirmed Friday it’s laying off an undisclosed number of home lending employees due to mortgage market conditions, one week after reporting a major decline in origination volume.The bank in a brief statement didn’t specify which employees were affected nor the amount of staff displaced, and didn’t immediately respond to follow-up questions Friday afternoon.It’s the third major mortgage player this week to announce cuts in response to sliding mortgage volumes, following the embattled lender Better.com and the technology firm Blend.
Fannie Mae completes fourth credit insurance risk transfer of 2022 --Fannie Mae's latest credit insurance risk transfer deal is its fourth transaction of this type it has announced in the last two months, following a year when it was basically out of the market.The newest deal, CIRT 2022-4 transferred $844.8 million of mortgage credit risk to a group of 22 private insurers and reinsurers.The covered loan pool consists of approximately 76,600 single-family mortgages with an outstanding unpaid principal balance of approximately $23.1 billion, loan-to-value ratios between 60.01% and 80% that Fannie Mae acquired between June 2021 and August 2021.
Senate report details 'ongoing mistreatment' of service members and their families living in privatized military housing - A new bipartisan investigation by a Senate panel alleges one of the nation's largest military housing companies put the health and safety of military families at risk even after the housing company, Balfour Beatty Communities, pleaded guilty in December 2021 to committing fraud against the United States from 2013 to 2019.The new report from the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations under the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee alleges "ongoing mistreatment" of US service members and their families and mismanagement by Balfour. The report, supported by thousands of documents and nearly two dozen interviews, uncovered what the subcommittee officials describe as systemic issues and patterns across the country at military housing units operated by Balfour.Balfour currently serves approximately 150,000 residents across 43,000 on-base homes at dozens of Army, Navy and Air Force bases in 26 states, according to the report. The inquiry focused on two bases, Fort Gordon in Georgia and Sheppard Air Force Base in Texas, where officials say they found very similar situations. Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Georgia Democrat, chairs the subcommittee, which authored the report, and Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is the subcommittee's ranking Republican member.The report details numerous examples of "disregard of safety concerns and environmental hazards that put military families at risk." Generally, the investigation revealed homes were in disrepair when military families moved in, things in the home were broken and requests for repairs, including those for families with children with preexisting health conditions, were ignored, according to subcommittee officials. The report also found omissions and inaccuracies in the Balfour database, which officials believe affected what the company was awarded by military services. These types of behavior "bear striking similarities to the types of conduct which Balfour admitted to in its December 2021 guilty plea for actions it took between 2013 and 2019," officials write in their report.
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in March -- Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0.92%, down from 0.99% February. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 2.34% in March 2021.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed. The serious delinquency rate was at 0.60% just prior to the pandemic - almost back.
Foreclosure activity shoots up nearly 40% from end of 2021 -Foreclosure numbers climbed to their highest level since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the first quarter this year, continuing their rise following the expiration of federal borrower protections.Researchers at Attom Data Solutions, the business intelligence provider and parent company of online marketplace for distressed properties RealtyTrac, found a total of 78,271 properties with foreclosure filings in the first three months of 2022. The number represents a 39% increase from the previous quarter and also came in 132% higher than one year ago when servicers were prohibited from initiating foreclosure proceedings. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rules protecting homeowners lapsed at the end of last year, likely contributing to elevated activity early this year.Single-month data from Attom’s Foreclosure Market Report also showed 33,333 properties with foreclosure filings in March, surging 29% from February numbers.
Forbearances drop to nearly 1% of servicing volume -Forbearances declined further in March and are now closing in on just 1% of total servicing volume, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.The number of forborne mortgages fell to 525,000, a 1.05% share of serviced loans, compared to 590,000 and 1.18% in February. Of loans in forbearance, 29.7% are in the initial stage, while 57.2% were granted extensions. Their shares last month stood at 30% and 57% respectively. But forbearance re-entries saw a small uptick and accounted for 13.1% of serviced mortgages in March, a month-over-month increase from 12.9%. Among borrowers who entered forbearance plans at some point since 2020, the share now considered current — either after making regular payments or undergoing a combo payment-deferral and partial-claim option or other modification program — increased to 83.7% compared to 82.8% in February.
Delinquencies ride economic tailwinds to record lows in March -The national mortgage delinquency rate hit a record low in March as economic tailwinds helped previously past-due borrowers to make significant gains toward becoming current, a new Black Knight report found.The 2.84% rate of borrowers 30 days or more past due in March was a 15.5% decline from February and broke the previous historic low of 3.22% in January 2020, according to Black Knight’s first look at mortgage performance statistics. The findings come after overall delinquencies rose in February due to nearly 100,000 borrowers with new late payments, then driven by an uptick in early-stage delinquencies.Strong general unemployment gains and extended student loan deferrals aided borrowers in being able to make their payments, Black Knight suggested, while millions are being helped by low interest rates secured during the refinance boom. The rate of new and seriously delinquent borrowers both declined by double-digit percentages in March, according to Black Knight.
Black Knight: "Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Record Low in March" -Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply. Loans in forbearance are counted as-at very low levels (see: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO) for a discussion of rising foreclosures, and why this isn't a concern) From Black Knight: Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Record Low in March, Driven by Both Seasonal and Broader Economic Improvements; Prepays Up Despite Rate Increases
• The national delinquency rate dropped by more than half a percentage point in March, falling to 2.84% and shattering the previous record low of 3.22% in January 2020
• While March typically sees the strongest mortgage performance of any month – with delinquencies falling more than 10% on average over the past 20 years – this year’s 15.5% reduction was exceptionally strong
• Robust employment, continued student loan deferrals, strong post-forbearance performance and millions of refinances into record-low interest rates have all helped put downward pressure on delinquency rates
• The strongest improvement was seen among borrowers who are a single payment past due, with 30-day delinquencies recording a 20% month-over-month decline
• Though serious delinquencies – those 90 or more days past due but not in foreclosure – fell 12% for the strongest single-month improvement in 20 years, they remain 70% above pre-pandemic levels
• Despite elevated serious delinquencies, foreclosure starts fell by 3% from the month prior and are holding well below pre-pandemic levels
• The number of active foreclosures edged slightly higher in March, marking the first year-over-year increase in almost 10 years, though inventories also remain well below pre-pandemic levels
• Prepayment activity bucked the recent trend of sharply rising interest rates driving falling prepay speeds, rising by 9% in March, likely driven at least in part by seasonal increases in home sales-related prepays According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 15.5% in March compared to February and decreased 43% year-over-year.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased 3.7% in March and were up 3.9% over the last year. (First year-over-year increase in almost 10 years - but from very low levels) Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.84% in March, down from 3.36% in February. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased in March to 0.32%, from 0.31% in February. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 1,159,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 7,000 properties year-over-year.
FHA to offer 40-year mods to COVID-affected borrowers -The Federal Housing Administration issued a mortgagee letter putting in place a 40-year mortgage modification option for borrowers who were affected by the pandemic.This move is in addition to a notice the Department of Housing and Urban Development published earlier this month that it’s looking to createa permanent 40-year loan modification program. This loss mitigation program works with the FHA partial claim option. It is designed to help those borrowers who cannot achieve a minimum targeted 25% reduction in principal and interest using the FHA's existing 30-year mortgage modification with a partial claim.
Mortgage Rates Hit 12-Year High, Climbing Above 5% - Rates for home loans have pushed above 5%, further straining affordability in an already challenging housing market. The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped 11 basis points to 5.11% for the week ending April 21 compared to the previous week, according to Freddie Mac. That was the highest rate since April 2010. A year ago, the 30-year averaged just 2.97%. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was 4.38% in the most recent week, up from 4.17% a week ago and 2.29% a year ago. Those rates don’t include fees and other costs associated with obtaining a home loan. Some experts worry that the combination of rising rates and still-high home prices may signal trouble for the housing market. “While springtime is typically the busiest homebuying season, the upswing in rates has caused some volatility in demand,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement. Applications for home purchase mortgages slipped again in the most recent week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. And a weekly report from Realtor.com showed that the number of homes available for sale was 13% lower than a year ago, and that the median listing price was 13.6% higher. Meanwhile, a trade group representing home builders said sentiment among its members fell for the fourth straight month in April. Newly-constructed homes make up a fraction of overall sales in the housing market, but a similar downturn in the Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders was an early signal of the top of the last housing cycle in 2005..
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -Mortgage applications decreased 8.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 22, 2022. ... The Refinance Index decreased 9 percent from the previous week and was 71 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “With mortgage rates increasing last week to the highest level since 2009, applications continued to decline. Overall application activity fell to the lowest level since 2018, with both purchase and refinance applications posting declines. Refinance applications were 70 percent below the same week a year ago, when the 30-year fixed rate was in the 3-percent range,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The drop in purchase applications was evident across all loan types. Prospective homebuyers have pulled back this spring, as they continue to face limited options of homes for sale along with higher costs from increasing mortgage rates and prices. The recent decrease in purchase applications is an indication of potential weakness in home sales in the coming months.” “In a period of high home-price growth and rapidly increasing mortgage rates, borrowers continued to mitigate higher monthly payments by applying for ARM loans. The ARM share of applications last week was over 9 percent by loan count and 17 percent based on dollar volume. At 9 percent, the ARM share was double what it was three months ago, which also coincides with the 1.5 percentage point increase in the 30-year fixed rate.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.37 percent from 5.20 percent, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.The refinance index is at the lowest level since December 2018.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index
Mortgage Volume Gets Crushed by Spiking Interest Rates: What it Means for Future Home Sales and Consumer Spending by Wolf Richter - Spiking mortgage rates multiply the effects of exploding home prices on mortgage payments, and it has taken layer after layer of homebuyers out of the market for the past four months. And we can see that.Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell further this week and were down 17% from a year ago, hitting the lowest level since May 2020, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly Purchase Index today. The index is down over 30% from peak-demand in late 2020 and early 2021, which was then followed by the historic price spikes last year.“The drop in purchase applications was evident across all loan types,” theMBA’s report said. “Prospective homebuyers have pulled back this spring, as they continue to face limited options of homes for sale along with higher costs from increasing mortgage rates and prices. The recent decrease in purchase applications is an indication of potential weakness in home sales in the coming months.”The culprit of the plunge in volume: The toxic mix of exploding home pricesand spiking mortgage rates. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages with 20% down and conforming to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac limits, jumped to 5.37%, the highest since August 2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly measure today.The mortgage on a home purchased a year ago at the median price (per National Association of Realtors) of $326,300, and financed with 20% down over 30 years, at the average rate at the time of 3.17%, came with a payment of 1,320 per month. The mortgage on a home purchased today at the median price of $375,300, and financed with 20% down, at 5.37% comes with a payment of $1,990. So today’s buyer, already strung out by rampant inflation in everything else, would have to come up with an extra $670 a month – that represents a 50% jump in mortgage payments – to buy the same house. Now figure this with homes in the more expensive areas of the country where the median price, after the ridiculous spikes of the past two years, runs $500,000 or $1 million or more. Homebuyers are facing massively higher mortgage payments in those markets. The combination of spiking home prices and spiking mortgage rates has the effect that layers and layers of buyers are leaving the market. And we’re starting to see that in the decline of mortgage applications. The Fed has caused this ridiculous housing bubble with its interest rate repression, including the massive purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities. And the Fed is now trying to undo some of it by pushing up long-term interest rates. It’s the Fed’s way – too little, too late – of trying to tamp down on the housing bubble and on the risks that the housing bubble, which is leveraged to the hilt, poses for the financial system. When mortgage rates fall, homeowners tend to refinance their higher-rate mortgages with lower-rate mortgages, either to lower their monthly payment, or draw cash out of the home, or both. The wave of refis that started in early 2019, as the Fed did its infamous U-Turn and mortgage rates declined, became a tsunami starting in March 2020, as mortgage rates plunged to record lows over the next few months. Homeowners lowered their monthly payments, and spent the extra cash that the lower payments left them. Other homeowners extracted cash via cash-out refis and spent this money on cars and boats, and they paid down their credit cards to make room for future spending, and this money was recycled in various ways and boosted the economy. And some of it too was plowed into stocks and cryptos. This effect ended months ago. By now, applications for refinance mortgages collapsed by 70% from a year ago, and by 85% from March 2020. Refis no longer support consumer spending, stocks, and cryptos.
MBA: Median Mortgage Application Payment Up 5.0% in March compared to February - This is a new monthly affordability index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). From the MBA: Mortgage Application Payments Jumped 5 Percent to $1,736 in March - Homebuyer affordability declined in March, with the national median payment applied for by applicants rising 5.0 percent to $1,736 from $1,653 in February. This is according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) new Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI), which measures how new monthly mortgage payments vary across time – relative to income – using data from MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey (WAS). “The start of the spring homebuying season is off to a mixed start. The healthy labor market and robust wage gains fueled demand throughout the country in March, but rapid home-price growth and the 42- basis-point surge in mortgage rates last month slowed purchase application activity.A typical borrower’s principal and interest payment was $387 more than in March 2021,” “Swift price-appreciation, sky-high inflation, low inventory, and mortgage rates now two percentage points higher than last year are all headwinds for the housing market in the coming months – especially for first-time buyers.” ... An increase in MBA’s PAPI – indicative of declining borrower affordability conditions – means that the mortgage payment to income ratio (PIR) is higher due to increasing application loan amounts, rising mortgage rates, or a decrease in earnings. A decrease in the PAPI – indicative of improving borrower affordability conditions – occurs when loan application amounts decrease, mortgage rates decrease, or earnings increase. The national PAPI (Figure 1) increased 5.0 percent to 150.9 in March from 143.7 in February, meaning payments on new mortgages take up a larger share of a typical person’s income.Compared to March 2021 (122.9), the index jumped 22.8 percent. For borrowers applying for lower-payment mortgages (the 25th percentile), the national mortgage payment increased 3.2 percent to $1,129 from $1,094 in February .This will increase further in April with the further increase in mortgage rates.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.8% year-over-year in February --S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3-month average of December, January and February prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Increased To 19.8% In February -- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.8% annual gain in February, up from 19.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 18.6%, up from 17.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 20.2% year-over-year gain, up from 18.9% in the previous month. Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in February. Phoenix led the way with a 32.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 32.6% increase and Miami with a 29.7% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending February 2022 versus the year ending January 2022. .. Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.7% month-over-month increase in February, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 2.4%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.9%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. In February, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments. “The macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly and may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer. The post-COVID resumption of general economic activity has stoked inflation, and the Federal Reserve has begun to increase interest rates in response. We may soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.” The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The National index is 57% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.9% (SA) in February. The National index is up 112% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices. The Composite 10 SA is up 18.6% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 20.2% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 19.8% year-over-year.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 2.1% in February - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for February. Here is the opening of the press release:– House prices rose nationwide in February, up 2.1 percent from the previous month, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 19.4 percent from February 2021 to February 2022. The previously reported 1.6 percent price change for January 2022 remained unchanged.For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from January 2022 to February 2022 ranged from +1.3 percent in the East North Central division to +2.9 percent in the South Atlantic division. The 12-month changes ranged from +15.3 percent in the East North Central division to +24.3 percent in the Mountain division.“House prices rose to set a new historical record in February,” said Will Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “Acceleration approached twice the monthly rate as seen a year ago. Housing prices continue to rise owing in part to supply constraints.” The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.
Comments on February Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Increases; New Record Monthly Increase - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.8% Year-over-year in February; New Record Monthly Increase - Excerpt: This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply (inverted, from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through February 2022).Note that the months-of-supply is not seasonally adjusted.There is a clear relationship, and this is no surprise (but interesting to graph). If months-of-supply is high, prices decline. If months-of-supply is very low (like now), prices rise quickly.In February, the months-of-supply was at 1.7 months, and the Case-Shiller National Index (SA) increased 1.90% month-over-month. The black arrow points to the February 2022 dot. In the March existing home sales report, the NAR reported months-of-supply increased to 2.0 months.My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.99% in August 2021 was probably the peak YoY growth rate, although this was close! Since the normal level of inventory is probably in the 4 to 6 months range - we’d have to see a significant increase in inventory to sharply slow price increases, and that is why I’m focused on inventory!Since Case-Shiller is a 3-month average, and this report was for February (includes December and January), this included price increases when mortgage rates were significantly lower than today. In December, the Freddie Mac PMMS averaged 3.1% for a 30-year mortgage, and 3.4% in January. Currently mortgage rates are around 5.32%. There is much more in the article.
Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in February; Worst "Affordability" since Housing Bubble --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in February - Excerpt: I’ve put together my own affordability index - since 1976 - that is similar to the FirstAm approach (more of a house price index adjusted by mortgage rates and the median household income).I used median income from the Census Bureau (estimated 2021 and 2022), assumed a 15% down payment, and used a 2% estimate for property taxes, insurance and maintenance. This is probably low for high property tax states like New Jersey and Texas, and too high for lower property tax states. If we were including condos, we’d also include HOA fees too (this is excluded).For house prices, I used the Case-Shiller National Index, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Also, for the down payment - there wasn’t a significant difference between 15% and 20%. For mortgage rates, I used the Freddie Mac PMMS (30-year fixed rates).So here is what the index looks like (lower is more affordable like the FirstAm index):Note that by this index, during the early ‘80s, homes were very unaffordable due to the very high mortgage rates. During the housing bubble, houses were also less affordable using 30-year mortgage rates, however, during the bubble, there were many “affordability products” that allowed borrowers to be qualified at the teaser rate (usually around 1%) that made houses seem more affordable. In general, this would suggest houses are the least affordable since the housing bubble. And excluding the bubble - with all the “affordability products” - this is the worst affordability since 1995.Also, in February, the average 30-year mortgage rates were around 3.8%, and currentlymortgage rates are close to 5.3% - so we already know the “Affordability Price Index” will increase sharply over the next couple of months (meaning houses are even less affordable).There is much more in the article.
Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: 20% YoY in March - The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February were released this week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow Research: February 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Prices Accelerate Again: While these challenging conditions might be expected to drain the pool of buyers, and may still do so eventually, there are signs the market remains very competitive. Listings are going pending after about a week on the market and a large share of homes are continuing to sell above their asking price. Existing home sales have trended below 2021 levels, but that appears to be more a function of low inventory than a lack of demand. There are fewer than half the number of homes on the market than at this time in 2019 – the last comparable period prior to the pandemic – yet sales continue to trend above pre-pandemic levels. Changes in inventory and affordability will remain key to the housing decisions of prospective buyers in the months ahead. Annual home price growth as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to accelerate in the national and 10-city indices and slow slightly in the 20-city index. Monthly appreciation in March is expected to decelerate from February in both city indices, and hold in the national index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, May 31. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be a record 20.2% in March.
Is the US housing market headed for a price correction? - U.S. home prices rose 18.8 percent in 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. During the first three months of 2022, home prices continued their upward trajectory. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the “median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $375,300, up 15.0% from March 2021 ($326,300), as prices rose in each region. This marks 121 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.”Despite surging home prices, there are growing concerns regarding the overall health of the U.S. real estate market as the pace of sales cooled in recent months amid fast-rising mortgage rates and continuing supply shortfalls. Recent analysis by Redfin suggests that at least some homebuyers have moved to the sidelines. But the same analysis suggested that around 54 percent of homes still sold above their list price.Given the outsized role that the housing sector plays in the U.S. economy, it is worth considering whether we are approaching an inflection point in the real estate market. Indications that the Federal Reserve has finally realized that it needs to front-load rate hikes to curtail surging inflationary pressures have caused the bond market to reset interest rate expectations. Consequently, the 30-year mortgage rate recently surged past the 5 percent level (average mortgage rates are up 2 percent since December 2021).While rising mortgage rates weigh on buyers’ ability to bid up home prices going forward, it is still not clear that an actual correction or sustained reduction in median sale price is likely this year. On the demand front, several favorable structural drivers are still in play. First, millennials are reaching the sweet spot for becoming first-time homebuyers. According to a recent NAR report, “the combined share of younger millennial (23 to 31 years old) and older millennial buyers (32 to 41 years old) rose to 43% in 2021, up from 37% the year prior.”Second, the shift of some white-collar workers from top-tier to second-tier cities has generated substantial fresh and ongoing demand for housing in urban and suburban regions experiencing rapid population growth. Fortune magazine’s Shawn Tully notes: “The home-office economy has unshackled families to leave high-cost metros on the coasts and flock to super-affordable Sunbelt cities, greatly boosting their markets.”A third factor has to do with price-to-rent ratios. While sharply surging price-to-rent ratios in fast growing metros (Boise, Phoenix, Austin, etc.) might be a cause for concern, the stunningincrease in rents across the nation in recent months may act as a push factor for potential homebuyers.Essentially, expectations of continuing rapid increases in rents may force some to consider becoming homeowners with a fixed and predictable monthly mortgage payment. The fact that real estate may act as an inflation hedge is an additional bonus.Finally, the emergence of deep-pocketed corporate buyers and investors has been a factor sustaining demand, especially in Sunbelt cities. Private investors are competing with and frequently outbidding first-time home buyers.
Housing Inventory April 25th Update: Inventory up 1.7% Week-over-week; Up 14.2% from Seasonal Bottom --Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 14.2% since then. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of April 22nd, inventory was at 275 thousand (7-day average), compared to 271 thousand the prior week. Inventory was UP 1.7% from the previous week. Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 - very late in the year. This year, by this measure, inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March. Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is down 11.2% from 310 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 63.1% from 746 thousand. One of the keys will be to watch the year-over-year change each week to see if the declines are decreasing. Here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in the Altos data.The blue trend line is from the beginning of the year, and the red trend line is over the last 8 weeks.Currently it appears inventory will be up year-over-year sometime mid-year 2022.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Housing and Demographics - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt:The current demographics are now very favorable for home buying - and will remain somewhat positive for most of the decade, although most of the increase is now behind us. Here is an even longer-term graph from 1960 through 2060. The surge in baby boomers reaching their 20s (red), led to a huge increase in apartment construction in the early 1970s. Then home-buying became favorable in the late ‘70s, but housing still slumped in the ‘79 to ‘82 period as the Volcker Fed raised interest rates to fight inflation. This is one reason I’ve been arguing Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, look instead to the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons. .. Population data is very useful in predicting long term trends, however, other factors (like in the 1980 period) can overwhelm demographics in the short term. There is much more in the article.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 1.2% in March - From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Sag 1.2% in March - Pending home sales dropped in March, signifying five straight months that contract activity has declined, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month, only the Northeast saw an increase in contract signings, while the three other major U.S. regions experienced declines in transactions. All four regions reported decreases in year-over-year contract activity.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 1.2% to 103.7 in March. Year-over-year, transactions sank 8.2%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI grew 4.0% to 89.3 in March, a 9.2% fall from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index dropped 6.1% to 94.7 last month, down 4.8% from March 2021.Pending home sales transactions in the South decreased 0.9% to an index of 125.8 in March, down 9.5% from March 2021. The index in the West declined 0.2% in March to 89.8, down 8.4% from a year prior. This was above expectations of a 1.8% decrease for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in April and May.
March New Home Sales: Little Completed Inventory, High Number of Homes Under Construction --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: March New Home Sales: Little Completed Inventory, High Number of Homes Under Construction Brief excerpt: The next graph shows new home sales for 2021 and 2022 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in March 2022 were down 12.6% from March 2021.The year-over-year comparisons will be easier going forward....And on prices, from the Census Bureau: The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2022 was $436,700. The average sales price was $523,900. The following graph shows the median and average new home prices. Overall home prices are up sharply year-over-year.During the housing bust, the builders had to build smaller and less expensive homes to compete with all the distressed sales. When housing started to recovery - with limited finished lots in recovering areas - builders moved to higher price points to maximize profits.Then the average and median house prices mostly moved sideways since 2017 due to home builders offering more lower priced homes. Prices really picked up during the pandemic. The average price in March 2022 was $523,900 up 26% year-over-year. The median price was $436,700, up 21% year-over-year.
Sales of New Houses Sag, Inventory Piles Up to Highest since 2008, as Mortgage Rates Spike. Homebuilder Costs Explode amid Shortages of All Kinds **Sales of new single-family houses in March, in terms of the seasonally adjusted annual rate, fell 8.6% for the month and by 12.6% year-over-year to a rate of 772,000 houses, according to data from the Census Bureau today. Sales remain far below the boom years of 2002-2006. Sales of new houses can serve as an early indicator of the housing market as the data are registered when sales contracts are signed, not when deals actually close, unlike sales of existing homes. Sales by stage of construction: Houses were construction had not started yet accounted for 33% of the sales. Houses that were under construction accounted for 43%. And completed houses accounted for 23% of the sales. The inventory of new single-family houses for sale rose to 407,000 houses in March (seasonally adjusted), the largest unsold inventory since August 2008, up by 52% from a year ago. This amounts to 6.4 months of supply at the current rate of sales. Homebuyers faced a historic spike in mortgage rates, on top of the historic spike in prices, a toxic mix that made purchases increasingly difficult or impossible for many buyers, and took them out of the market. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped from 4.1% at the beginning of March to 4.8% at the end of the month, up by 1.5 percentage points a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Since then, mortgage rates have pierced the 5% level: Homebuilders faced a historic spike in costs, amid shortages of materials, supplies, and labor that have been hobbling construction projects and stalled deliveries of completed houses. Construction costs of single-family houses – excluding the cost of land and other non-construction costs – spiked by 1.5% in March and by 17.3% year-over-year, according to separate data from the Census Bureau today. This was the fourth month in a row of 17% cost spikes year-over-year, the worst in the data going back to 1964. The prior record was the 14.6% spike in July 1979. And it was the 11th month in a row of double-digit spikes: The median price of single-family houses sold is heavily skewed by the change in mix: The bottom has fallen out of the low end where now very few houses are sold. In March, only 15% of the houses sold for below $300,000. In March 2021, still 35% of the houses sold for below $300,000. Now the bulge brackets are in the range between $300,000 and $500,000, accounting for nearly half the house sales in March. The upward shift in price is a result of price increases and the shift by builders to go where the money is. And this caused the median price in March to jump by 21% year-over-year to $436,700. The median price means that half the homes sold were priced at over $436,700.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory down only 6% Year-over-year --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory down only 6% Year-over-year Excerpt: Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing homes. Here is their most recent weekly report released yesterday: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending April 23, 2022. They have data on list prices, new listing and more, but this focus is on inventory. Active inventory is down just 6 percent from a year ago. The number of homes for sale is past this year’s seasonal low, which was also a record low, which means the number of homes for sale is climbing week to week and month to month as it typically does in spring. While the market has not yet caught up to last year’s level, this week marked a big jump forward. The gap between this year’s homes for sale and last year’s is one-fifth the size that it was at the beginning of the year. The catch up is likely to continue, as we noted last week, as new listings grow and home sales slow, and we expect active inventory to surpass year ago levels in the next few months. This growth will mean more options for shoppers than they’ve had in a while, even though inventory continues to lag pre-pandemic normal.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note: I corrected a sign error in the data for Feb 26, 2022. The previous week, inventory was down 12.6% YoY according to Realtor.com. That is close to the 11.2% that Altos reported. I expect Altos to report a single digit year-over-year decline in inventory on Monday.There is much more in the article.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.4% in Q1 2022 --The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q1 2022. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q1 is 65.4 percent, unchanged from Q4 2021. The nonseasonally adjusted Q1 number is also at 65.4 percent, down fractionally from the Q4 2021 figure. Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership continued to struggle. The recent recession as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic caused a massive, but brief, jump in homeownership due to grossly reduced spending. Here's an excerpt from the press release: National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2022 were 5.8 percent for rental housing and 0.8 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was 1.0 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2021 (6.8 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2021 (5.6 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.8 percent was 0.1 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2021 (0.9 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2021 (0.9 percent). The homeownership rate of 65.4 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2021 (65.6 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2021 (65.5 percent).The Census Bureau has been tracking the nonseasonally adjusted data since 1965. Their seasonally adjusted version only goes back to 1980. Here is a snapshot of the nonseasonally adjusted series with a 4-quarter moving average to highlight the trend.
HVS: Q1 2022 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates --The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2022. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend. National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2022 were 5.8 percent for rental housing and 0.8 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was 1.0 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2021 (6.8 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2021 (5.6 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.8 percent was 0.1 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2021 (0.9 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2021 (0.9 percent).The homeownership rate of 65.4 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2021 (65.6 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2021 (65.5 percent).The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000 and 2010. The Census Bureau will release data for 2020 soon. The HVS homeownership rate decreased to 65.4% in Q1, from 65.5% in Q4.The results starting in Q2 2020 were distorted by the pandemic.The HVS homeowner vacancy decreased to 0.8% in Q1 from 0.9% in Q4.
The rental vacancy rate increased to 5.8% in Q1 from 5.6% in Q4. The HVS also has a series on asking rents. This surged following the early stages of the pandemic - like other measures - and is up 20.5% over the last two years. However, asking rents were only up 2.3% year-over-year in Q1 2022.The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.
NMHC: April Apartment Market Survey shows Tighter Conditions --From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Demand Continues to Grow, but Investors Face Tougher Financing Conditions- Apartment markets tightened further according to the National Multifamily Housing Council’s Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for April 2022, while financing became more costly. The Market Tightness (60) index was the only index to come in above the breakeven level (50) this quarter; the Sales Volume (50) index came in at exactly 50, with much disagreement among respondents; while both the Equity Financing (35) and Debt Financing (9) indexes indicated weaker conditions compared to three months prior. “Demand for apartments continues to exceed supply, resulting in the fifth straight quarter of tightening markets,” noted NMHC’s Chief Economist, Mark Obrinsky. “Yet, even as rent growth and occupancy remain elevated, developers are struggling to build more housing due to the increasing cost of materials, a lack of available labor, continued obstructionism from NIMBYs, and, because of rising interest rates, an increasing cost of capital.”...The Market Tightness Index came in at 60 this quarter – above the breakeven level of 50 – indicating that market conditions have become tighter. While less than one-third (30 percent) of respondents reported markets to be tighter than three months ago, an even smaller share (10 percent) thought that markets have become looser. A majority of respondents (59 percent), meanwhile, thought that apartment market conditions were unchanged from last quarter.This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index. Any reading above 50 indicates tighter conditions from the previous quarter. Even though the index declined in April, this indicates market conditions tightened further in April for the fifth consecutive quarter, after being especially weak during the early months of the pandemic.
Las Vegas March 2022: Visitor Traffic Down 10% Compared to 2019 - From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: arch 2022 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics The positive visitation trajectory continued in March as Las Vegas hosted more than 3.3M visitors, nearly 50% ahead of last March and roughly 10% shy of March 2019. With meetings returning across the destination along with tradeshows such as ASD Las Vegas, Nat'l Automobile Dealers Assn, Bar & Restaurant Expo, and Int'l Pizza Expo, the convention segment saw continued improvement, reaching an est. 495k attendees for the month, roughly 90% of pre‐COVID levels of Mar 2019. Overall hotel occupancy reached 80.6%, up approx. 25 pts YoY and down only 10.9 pts vs. March 2019. Weekend occupancy exceeded 92% (up 14.4 pts YoY and down 5.0 pts vs. March 2019) and Midweek occupancy reached 76.6% (up 28.8 pts YoY and down 12.3 pts vs. March 2019).ADR exceeded $163, well ahead of last March (+63.0%) and March 2019 (+21.8%) while RevPAR reached $131.49 for the month, dramatically ahead of March 2021 (+136.7%) and 7.3% over March 2019 levelsThe first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (dark blue), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (yellow) and 2022 (red)Visitor traffic was down 9.8% compared to the same month in 2019. Visitor traffic was up 50% compared to last March.The second graph shows convention traffic. Convention traffic was down 10.5% compared to March 2019. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.
Analysis: U.S. trucking downturn foreshadows possible economic gloom - There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs – known as the spot market – are skidding. “It basically just dropped off a cliff,” said Fuller, who is concerned that the United States is at the start of a trucking recession that could decimate truckers’ ability to dictate prices and push some small trucking firms into bankruptcy. Meanwhile, investors and financial analysts worry about what will happen if the trucking slump deepens and spreads. History has proven trucking to be a possible indicator for the US economy. That is because when people buy less, companies ship less – and business activity slows. Economic recessions followed six of the 12 trucking recessions since 1972, according to an analysis by trucking data company Convoy. Experts predicted trucking would soften a bit as pandemic-weary consumers shifted some spending from goods to services in response to the United States lifting COVID prevention measures. But they did not foresee Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent fuel prices to record highs, jolted already volatile stock markets, and forced shoppers to hit pause. And now, trucking’s most demand-sensitive sector – the spot market – is in correction territory. “It is the proverbial ‘canary in the mineshaft’,” said Joseph Rajkovacz, director of governmental affairs for the Western States Trucking Association. The group represents small trucking companies that dominate the spot market, which handled as much as 30 per cent of freight during the height of the pandemic. The spot rate deterioration hit when diesel prices were roughly doubling, battering the take-home pay of truckers like Marco Padilla, 63. A few years ago, California-based Padilla spent 25-30 cents per mile to run his truck. “So for every dollar (of pay), I was pocketing 70 cents. Now it costs $1 a mile,” said Padilla..
Why diesel prices are driving up the cost of everything --Consumers notice spiking gasoline prices every time they drive to the pump. But energy industry analysts say the current spike in diesel prices is historic — and is pushing up the cost of all kinds of goods. Diesel prices are hovering around all-time highs, forced upward by the same circumstances that have fueled gasoline's rise. "The price of diesel is probably the bigger headline here," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy. Nearly everything people buy is at some point freighted in a vehicle powered by a diesel engine. Ships and barges, trains, trucks and even some airplanes run on diesel fuel. Diesel hit an all-time high of $5.135 on March 12, according to AAA. As of April 27, the price was only slightly lower at $5.093. That increase is hitting consumer prices hard, says Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, who notes that diesel has had a significant factor in rising inflation.It is also hitting truckers hard. Truckers who used to spend about $10,000 a week on fuel now are spending closer to $18,000 a week.Freight industry analysts suspect the very fragmented and volatile trucking industry will likely experience another severe recession. Some are even calling it a "bloodbath." "We see when fuel surges as much as it has over the past couple of months, that's usually when we see a lot of trucking bankruptcies follow," said Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of Freightwaves, an industry data tracker. That amounts to bad news for the nearly 2 million trucking companies in America, the vast majority of which are small businesses with just a handful of trucks. "These small operators that live essentially on the cash flow of their trucking operations are not prepared and don't have the balance sheets or the cash position to absorb these instantaneous shocks to their cash flow," Fuller said.
US durable goods orders inch up 0.8% in March - Orders at U.S. factories for long-lasting goods rebounded in March after the first decline in a year, as manufacturers confronted a worsening supply-chain crisis that continued to weigh on business investment. Bookings for all durable goods – products that are intended to last at least three years – rose 0.8% last month, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv forecast a 1% increase. It followed an upwardly revised 1.7% decline in February. Passenger planes and autos – volatile measurements that tend to swing sharply month to month – jumped 2.4% in March. A more precise measure of demand that excludes transportation and military hardware, known as core orders, rose 1% in March, rebounding strongly from the previous month. The figures suggest that business investment is strong and that factories are producing large amounts of goods, even as they confront snarled supply chains, a labor shortage and the highest inflation in decades. Another measure of factory conditions, known as core orders, advanced 1% in the month. The core number strips out transportation and military equipment and gives a better sense of underlying demand in the U.S. economy. "The solid increase in core orders suggests that businesses remain in good shape, and are still looking to bulk up its machines and equipment to contribute to their bottom lines," Still, the economic outlook is becoming cloudier as a result of the Russian war in Ukraine, an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve and soaring consumer prices. Several Wall Street firms, including Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, have raised their expectations for a recession in the next two years as Fed policymakers begin to aggressively tighten policy in order to curb demand and cool red-hot inflation.
April Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Expansion Continues, Weak Outlook - The Dallas Fed has released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for April. The latest general business activity index came in at 1.1, down 7.6 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is an excerpt from the latest report: Texas factory activity expanded at a moderate pace in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, ticked down two points to 10.8, a reading in line with the index’s average. Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity generally eased but remained positive. The future production index fell from 40.1 to 34.7, and the future general business activity index retreated six points to 1.8. Other measures of future manufacturing activity such as capital expenditures and employment showed mixed movements but remained solidly in positive territory. Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Expansion Continues in April - Fifth District manufacturing activity continued its expansion in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index stood at 14 in April compared to 13 in March.The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here. Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Easing in April - The latest index came in at 25, down from 37 last month, indicating continued, but easing, expansion in April. The future outlook fell to 34. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:The pace of regional factory growth eased somewhat but remained strong. Firms continued to report issues with higher input prices, increased supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages. However, firms were optimistic about future activity and reported little impact from higher interest rates. [Full report here] Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 180,000 --The DOL reported:In the week ending April 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 180,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 184,000 to 185,000. The 4-week moving average was 179,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 177,250 to 177,500. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Personal Income increased 0.5% in March; Spending increased 1.1% The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March:Personal income increased $107.2 billion (0.5 percent) in March, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $89.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $185.0 billion (1.1 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.4 percent in March and Real PCE increased 0.2 percent; goods decreased 0.5 percent and services increased 0.6 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent The March PCE price index increased 6.6 percent year-over-year and the PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 5.2 percent year-over-year.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.Personal income was slightly above expectations, and the increase in PCE was above expectations.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in March - With the release of this morning's report on March's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.47% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.39% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.65% nominal and 0.13% real changes. The year-over-year metrics are -14.9% nominal and -20.1% real. Post-Great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Do you recall what you were doing on New Year's Eve at the turn of the millennium? Nominal disposable income is up 117% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 39%.
United and American Airlines are replacing planes with buses on some routes in an attempt to tackle the pilot shortage -An ongoing pilot shortage has prompted US airlines to replace planes with buses on some routes in an attempt to tackle the issue.Bloomberg reported that United and American Airlines were among those using the new scheme.Labor shortages continue to pose problems for various industries, including aviation, where salary hikes and higher bonuses are being used to attract and retain talent.Bloomberg reported that United and American signed contracts with the Colorado bus-as-flight company Landline to transport passengers and their luggage by bus on short, domestic routes.
Public Schools Fray as Pentagon Gets More Pork - A kid spit on my husband Patrick yesterday. The student was up on a windowsill at school and, when instructed to come down, he spit. It’s part of Patrick’s job not to take that — the most personal of insults and an almost universal expression of disrespect — personally. He knew enough about that boy and his sad story to see the truth of the maxim “hurt people hurt.” In this case, it was also a matter of “disrespected kids disrespect.” So, he handled it and his emotional response to the grossness of being spit on, too. He got that kid down and back into class. Then he cleaned himself up and went on with his day. This is not the first time he’s been spit on this year and it probably won’t be the last. It isn’t even the worst. Once, he was so covered in spittle he had to go home in the middle of the day to shower and change clothes. And mind you, this is all happening during the coronavirus pandemic and the mandatory mask wearing that is supposed to keep his school safe (at least from the virus). My husband’s official job title — and I’ll bet you didn’t even know such a job existed — is Wellness Interventionist. (Another school calls his position the Feelings Teacher.) He works at one of our Connecticut town’s four public elementary schools, trying to keep things from getting overheated. He attempts to intervene in conflicts between kids before they come to a head. He leads class-circle discussions about emotional health, and helps students find more complex and nuanced ways than just anger or derision to express their feelings. They are supposed to seek him out for help navigating conflicts and repairing relationships. There’s a jargonistic term for what he does: “restorative practices and social-emotional learning.” Because he works in a bureaucracy, you won’t be surprised to know that these terms have been reduced to the acronyms RP and SEL. However fast those may be to say, though, the work itself takes time, lots and lots of time, and time is the one thing my husband seldom has in his fast-moving school days with almost 500 kids needing attention. All too often these days, my husband comes home sad, tired, and dispirited. Unfortunately, his feelings and experiences are just one person’s tale in the sweeping epic of a failing and floundering school system. Or maybe it’s not just that system, but our whole society. You probably won’t be surprised to know that public schools have been in perpetual crisis for a long time. If the original system was built and funded at public expense to prepare the next generation of factory workers, today’s system is there so that parents can work. Covid-19 revealed that sad truth. When schools shut down, so does part of the economy. These days, they also provide a whole array of social support for families badly in need, often including food, clothes, health care, and access to technology. The pandemic shutdowns revealed failures and weaknesses in a threadbare social system, but it did allow certain strengths to shine through as well. For one thing, the commitment of so many teachers, para-educators, and support staff, often under remarkably difficult circumstances, should be considered a marvel. Our educators are the under-appreciated, underpaid, undervalued superheroes of the Covid era. They transitioned to a new medium of education, the virtual classroom, and figured out how to mobilize the sort of resources that students and their families need just to keep going. School buses delivered computers, lunches, and dinners. Teachers made themselves available after hours to walk families through the new technology of schooling, even though they often had kids of their own and elders to care for as well. And they did it all for far too long amid the Trump administration’s dismal culture wars! They worked on an emergency, pedal-to-the-metal footing for three semesters before going back to in-person instruction in the fall of 2021, with masks, plexiglass barriers, and the constant threat of shutdowns. They started the school year stressed and tired, and now, in April 2022, they’re exhausted.
The Miseducation of Maria Montessori | The New Yorker -- For the Montessori-curious parent on a budget, there is consolation in the wide and lasting influence of the movement’s founder, Maria Montessori, the Italian physician and educator whose ideas and innovations are ubiquitous even in the preschools that do not bear her name. The eschewing of individual desks in favor of mats and child-size tables, the primacy of hands-on learning, daily observances such as “circle time” (when children sit cross-legged on a rug to share news and participate in group lessons) and “choice time” (when children busy themselves at various classroom “centers” for art, music, tower-building, and so on)—all of these elements of early-childhood education are indebted to Montessori’s philosophy. At the turn of the twentieth century, it was revolutionary to think that a child’s education could be child-centered—shaped according to his or her actual brain and body. Montessori and her many disciples made this common sense. What’s more, they believed something that still seems counterintuitive today: that children are, in their essence, methodical, self-directed beings with a strong work ethic, perfectly capable of deep concentration, and that their tendency toward inattention and disruption can be a reasonable response to disharmonious surroundings. As Cristina De Stefano writes in “The Child Is the Teacher” (Other Press), a new biography of Montessori, “Children, placed in the right environment, provided with the right materials, soon stop being agitated and noisy and are transformed into quiet creatures, calm, happy to work.” This most orderly and tranquil of educational philosophies had its beginnings in the most grim and chaotic of circumstances. In 1897, Montessori, one of the first women in Italy to earn a medical degree, had recently graduated from the University of Rome and was volunteering at the school’s psychiatric clinic, where her responsibilities entailed visits to the city’s ghastly insane asylums. At the time, mental illness was widely viewed by Catholics as a form of divine retribution, but Montessori became attached to the children who lived in the asylums, many of whom had been committed owing to disabilities, although others simply suffered from malnutrition or neglect. Her interest in the children led her to the writings of the special-education pioneer Édouard Séguin, who employed balls, blocks, beads, buttons, and everyday tools in his work with asylum children in Paris, and of Friedrich Froebel, the German educator who originated the concept of kindergarten and gave his name to the toys known as “Froebel gifts”: balls of yarn, wooden spheres and cylinders. Séguin and Froebel understood that children’s desire to touch and manipulate everything around them, easily mistaken as behavior to be managed, might be better seen as self-education. In 1900, at the age of twenty-nine, Montessori became the co-director of the Orthophrenic School, in Rome, the nation’s first training institute for special-education teachers. The trainees worked with students who were selected from the asylums or who had been unable to keep up at state schools. For two years, Montessori taught students and teachers for upward of eleven hours a day, then worked late into the night reading, writing, and sketching plans for her own Froebel-inspired “gifts.” Some of her students, amazingly, went on to pass the same primary-school exams as their mainstream peers, although Montessori shrugged off the results—the strong performance of her “little idiots,” as she called them, was more an indictment of the state-school system than it was an endorsement of her pedagogy, she said.
College Students Who Stopped Out Want to Return But Face Challenges --In the wake of disruptions and losses due to COVID-19, research shows the majority of college students in Connecticut and beyond who left school over the past two years want to return.The report from Gallup and Lumina Foundation surveyed more than 11,000 current students, others who recently "stopped out," and prospective college students. It found that difficult coursework was a significant factor for those who left school in 2021.For traditional-aged college students, said Stephanie Marken, Gallup's executive director for education research, the stress of being isolated in their last years of high school left them less prepared to go into a college setting."So, we see high levels of coursework difficulty for students who report they've considered stopping out for that reason," she said. "Many students who wouldn't traditionally be struggling to persist, through even a first-year curriculum, are really struggling to do so. So, we also see a huge need for academic support."In fall 2020, 83% of Connecticut college students said their mental health negatively affected their academic performance.The report also found that for those who stayed in school, their confidence in the advantages of receiving a degree is a big part of why they stayed. Courtney Brown, the Lumina Foundation's vice president for impact and planning, said current and prospective students see how degrees can help them increase their knowledge and pay."High percentages said that they know they need a degree or certificate to gain skills, to get a job," she said, "so the survey actually shows that there is a great value in higher education. And that is even for people who have never been part of higher education." The report found that multiracial bachelor's and associate-degree students were the most likely groups to say it was difficult to stay in school in the last year. Many cited the high cost of college and the need for financial aid to finish their studies.
At least a dozen US universities reinstate mask mandates as COVID cases rise - Colleges and universities across the United States, particularly in the Northeast, have reinstated mask mandates and returned to online learning in response to a recent surge of COVID-19 infections on campuses, marking the third straight academic year disrupted by the coronavirus. Schools in New York, Washington D.C., Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Texas have announced they will again require face coverings in classrooms or certain indoor spaces, with Howard University moving to remote learning to combat the spread of the virus. Most US universities dropped mask mandates leading up to spring break, following a winter surge fueled by the Omicron variant. But several parts of the country have seen another surge in cases and hospitalizations in recent weeks, as the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron drives another wave of infections and illness. Four schools in New York state reinstated their indoor mask mandates in recent weeks. Syracuse University, located in a county with one of the largest surges of infections in the US, announced it would once again require masks in classrooms on Monday. Earlier this month, Columbia University in New York City announced students would be required to wear non-cloth masks in classrooms for the remainder of the spring semester. The university directly cited the city’s uptick in cases and its own increasing test positivity rate in the decision.Barnard College, a women’s school affiliated with Columbia, also reimposed its indoor mask mandate due to a spike in cases since it lifted the rule at the end of March. The University of Rochester announced on April 15 that it would reintroduce its indoor mask mandate policy for all of its campuses and properties in response to a spike in cases that was “straining the capacity” of quarantine and isolation spaces on its campuses. “The trending high numbers of positive student COVID cases at the University in recent days make it in everyone’s best interest to take the step of re-masking indoors right now,” the university administration said in a statement. Four universities in Washington D.C. have also reinstated mask mandates following high transmission rates in the region and significant case increases on their campuses. The city’s COVID-19 infection rate has more than doubled in April.
Harvard leaders and staff enslaved more than 70 people, report finds - Harvard University leaders, faculty and staff enslaved more than 70 individuals during the 17th and 18th centuries when slavery was legal in Massachusetts, according to a report chronicling the university’s deep ties to wealth generated from slave labor in the South and Caribbean — and its significant role in the nation’s long history of racial discrimination. The “Harvard and the Legacy of Slavery” report, made public Tuesday, represents a landmark acknowledgment from one of the world’s most prestigious universities of the breadth of its entanglement with slavery, white supremacy and racial injustice for centuries after its 1636 founding. It also shatters any notion that Harvard, by virtue of its location in New England, was insulated from the evils of economic and social systems based on human bondage. The school pledged $100 million to redress the injustices. Much of Harvard’s record on slavery and racial discrimination has been known for years. But the report sought to deepen that knowledge and tie it all together in an unsparing portrait of institutional failings. Among its findings:
- Enslaved people of Indigenous and African descent played an integral role in the Harvard community in its first century and a half. The first Harvard schoolmaster, Nathaniel Eaton, enslaved a man known only as “The Moor,” who served the college’s earliest students. Various Harvard presidents, fellows, overseers, stewards and faculty members enslaved more than 70 people until slavery was outlawed in Massachusetts in 1783. The report did not state a precise count. But the university said the total appears to be 79, dozens more than previously known.
- Five men who made their fortunes from slavery and slave-produced commodities accounted for more than one-third of donations or financial pledges Harvard received from private individuals during the first half of the 19th century. Among them was Benjamin Bussey, a sugar, coffee and cotton merchant who left Harvard an estate of $320,000 when he died in 1842. James Perkins, whose business included Caribbean slave trading, bequeathed $20,000 to Harvard in 1822.
- Harvard was home to intellectuals who promoted “race science” and eugenics in the 19th and 20th centuries. Their theories and research, including the collection of photographs of enslaved people and nude students, provided crucial support for those seeking to justify white supremacy and other racist ideologies. The university’s museum collections also hold human remains believed to be from Indigenous people and enslaved people of African descent.
Student Loan Debt Forgiveness - I was reading the commentary on student loan forgiveness since Joe Biden has said he would do something. It is not going to be $50,000 in forgiveness as Senators Warren, Sanders, and Schumer are pushing. Biden has said it is unlikely it will be this amount. Indeed, he suggested $10,000. The $10,000 might be worthy if we canceled all of the penalties, consolidation fees, and the excess interest along with the $10,000.If you are not aware, Joe Biden has been helpful in promoting the false narrative since the nineties of students scamming the student loan system to offload debt. This is not true according to sources since then. These are not typical loans.Tom Sullivan has a good take on the issues with student loans bringing us to this point and why a failure to do so is complete bull sh*t. Repost of Tom Sullivan’s Student Loan commentary,“Ask not what your country can do for you,” The New York Times’ “The Daily” on Monday considered the pros and cons of addressing the student loan debt crisis. Partway through, I felt a rant coming on.The Covid pandemic prompted the government two years ago to defer collection of student loan payments. The Joe Biden administration has extended the collection moratorium four times. Restarting collections after a two-plus year hiatus, says Stacy Cowley of the Times, will be at best logistically dicey. Cancelling student debt, as Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have suggested, faces its own hurdles:The thing that has kept them from pulling the trigger and going one way or the other on this — resume payments or cancel some debt — is that there’s really big obstacles to either of those courses of action. They fall into three buckets. There’s political obstacles, there’s economic obstacles and there’s logistical obstacles.Biden may or may not have the authority to wipe out the loans with a stroke of a pen, Cowley argues. Congress could address it more definitively, but:They don’t have the votes for it at the moment. That’s part of why we haven’t seen it happen in Congress. The House has passed a version of this, but it has basically died in the Senate. And that’s because, first of all, the Republicans are pretty much universally against this. They’re very concerned about the cost of it. We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars here. There’s also concerns about is this a giveaway to well-off college-educated folks? This gets perceived as you’re potentially subsidizing loan payments for people who took out expensive graduate degrees, went to professional schools. Is that really the best use of taxpayer dollars? So that’s the concern you hear a lot from the Republican side of the aisle. This is about the point my blood began to boil.What pisses me off is this: that cancelling student loans for students, graduates and non-graduates, well-off and not-so-well-off, is more fraught than the government dedicating billions or trillions to bail out the very, very well-off, college-educated bankers that brought on the financial crisis and the Great Recession. Millions of Americans lost their homes while we made the bankers and the financial industry whole. Estimates for what the financial bailout cost are all over the map. As much as $7.7 trillion in undisclosed loans. Many (most?) were paid back with interest. Deborah J. Lucas of MIT Sloan, however, estimated in February 2019 that “the total direct cost of crisis-related bailouts in the U.S. was on order of $500 billion, or 3.5 percent of GDP in 2009.”
FDA proposes ban on menthol in cigarettes, cigars - The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday proposed a ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars after a very public debate over whether to prohibit them. Under the ruling, menthol would be prohibited as a “characterizing flavor in cigarettes.” Additionally, all characterizing flavors, with the exception of tobacco, would be banned in cigars. The proposed ban stands to have an impact on the tobacco market as a whole. Menthol cigarettes make up over one-third of the cigarette market in the U.S., according to the Kaiser Health Foundation..Supporters of the ban argue that it will save lives by lowering smoking rates across the board. “The proposed rules would help prevent children from becoming the next generation of smokers and help adult smokers quit,” Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said in a statement. “Additionally, the proposed rules represent an important step to advance health equity by significantly reducing tobacco-related health disparities,” he continued. However, the ban’s critics argue that it will result in the illegal selling of the cigarettes, stretching law enforcement thin. Various civil rights figures, including the Rev. Al Sharpton and attorney Ben Crump, have warned that it could result in negative interactions between police and the Black community. Black and Hispanic smokers tend to prefer menthol cigarettes to other types. “How could anybody ignore interactions between police [and the Black community] if they’re increased because of a ban?” Sharpton said in a recent interview with The Hill. “If a policeman sees a guy standing on the corner smoking a Kool, he’s asking ‘Where did you get that from?’ and that will lead to interaction.”
COVID is spreading in deer. What does that mean for the pandemic? - Researchers have worked with hunters for decades as part of regular wildlife surveillance to manage deer populations and track the spread of infectious diseases, such as chronic wasting disease and bovine tuberculosis. But these days, the scientists are also looking for the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans. In between estimating a deer’s age by checking teeth and taking antler measurements, researchers wearing masks and gloves wipe mud and grass from around the animal’s nostrils before inserting a swab to test for viral RNA. They then collect blood to check for antibodies against the virus. Their work has uncovered widespread infection in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in North America, with hundreds of infected animals in 24 US states and several Canadian provinces. Scientists want to understand how the virus gets into deer, what happens as it spreads among them, and what risk these infections might pose for other wildlife and for humans. Close to 30 million deer live in the United States — one for every 10 people — and a few million live in Canada. Several teams have cobbled together the funding to survey deer, says Samira Mubareka, a virologist at Sunnybrook Research Institute in Toronto, Canada.“We’ve mobilized an army of students,” says Bowman.The variants researchers found circulating in deer typically mirror those spreading in humans who live nearby, but some studies suggest that SARS-CoV-2 in the wild could already be exploring fresh avenues of evolution through mutations that alter the virus.It’s not yet clear whether the virus can spread in long chains of infection among deer, or whether deer-to-human transmission could spark outbreaks. But researchers are growing increasingly concerned about the animals becoming a viral reservoir, serving as a recalcitrant source of outbreaks and potentially breeding new variants. Some researchers think that the highly infectious Omicron variant spent time in an animal reservoir before popping up in people. So far, infected deer aren’t turning up very unwell, but they could spread the infection to livestock or other wildlife that might be more vulnerable. And that’s a major worry. “Once it gets into wildlife,” says Marietjie Venter, a medical virologist at the University of Pretoria in South Africa, “there is basically no way at the moment to control it.”
Covid overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in U.S. history - The Covid-19 pandemic has become the deadliest disease event in American history, with a death toll surpassing that of the 1918 Spanish flu. The Spanish flu was previously the disease event that caused the biggest loss of life in the United States; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 675,000 Americans died during the 1918 pandemic, in waves of illness that stretched out over roughly two years in this country. According to STAT’s Covid-19 Tracker, Covid deaths stand at more than 675,400. “In terms of raw numbers of deaths, that’s a high number,” said Howard Markel, director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. “And it’s higher still than it should have been, frankly.” U.S. deaths make up roughly 14% of the nearly 4.7 million fatalities that have been reported worldwide in this pandemic to date, even though the country’s population comprises only about 4.2% of the global population.“In the U.S., we are among the worst affected in our class of countries — rich countries with an aging population. But other countries in Europe did poorly as well,” said Cécile Viboud, an infectious diseases epidemiologist who has done a lot of research into deaths from the 1918 flu. Whether the Covid pandemic will qualify as the deadliest event in U.S. history is perhaps a question for Civil War historians. The long-accepted toll of the War Between the States was 620,000, which this pandemic has already surpassed. But in 2011, David Hacker, a historian at Binghamton University in New York State, published an article in the journal Civil War History arguing the true number of deaths in the Civil War was more likely around 750,000. The heavy toll the pandemic has taken in the U.S. is due to the country’s inadequate response early on, said Markel. David Morens, a medical historian at the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, agreed. “I think it’s generally known around the world that America didn’t do a very good job in the early stages of controlling the pandemic,” said Morens, who has also written extensively on the 1918 flu pandemic. Comparing events that happened more than a century apart has its perils. For instance, the population of the United States in 1918 was a third of what it is now. So as a percentage of the national population, the Spanish flu deaths still has the lead on Covid-19.
Covid was the third leading cause of death in the U.S. last year --Covid-19 was the third leading cause of death in the U.S. last year, with only heart disease and cancer killing more people, according to data released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Covid killed more than 415,000 people in 2021 and contributed to the deaths of 45,000 more people, about 20% more than the first year of the pandemic, when the virus was involved in the deaths of more than 384,000 people.The CDC data, based on death records among U.S. residents from January through December 2021, is provisional and subject to change as more information is reported.People 85 and older had a higher death rate from Covid than any other age group, and more men died from the virus than women. The death rate was the highest for American Indians when adjusted for age and population. Hispanics, Black people and Pacific Islanders also had higher death rates from Covid than white people. Asians and multiracial individuals had the lowest death rates.Only heart disease and cancer killed more people than Covid in 2021, taking the lives of about 693,000 and 604,000 people, respectively. Unintentional injuries were the fourth leading cause of death, killing more than 219,000 people.Though the U.S. began rolling out the vaccines in early 2021, many people did not and still have not gotten their shots. The delta variant also swept the nation in 2021, causing more severe illness than other Covid variants,according to the CDC.As of Thursday, 34% of the U.S. population was not fully vaccinated and about 23% of the population had not received a single dose. The only age group not yet eligible for vaccination is children under the age of 5 years old.Unvaccinated people ages 12 and older were 20 times more likely to die from Covid and three times more likely to test positive for the virus than people who had received three doses of the vaccine, according to data presented at a CDC advisory committee meeting Wednesday.More than 987,000 people have died from Covid in the U.S. since the pandemic began, according to CDC data. Though deaths from Covid have dropped 85% from the peak of the winter omicron wave, about 375 people are still dying every day from the virus on average, according to the data.
Coronavirus has infected majority of Americans, blood tests indicate -- Before omicron, one-third of Americans had been infected with thecoronavirus, but by the end of February, that rate had climbed to nearly 60 percent, including 3 out of 4 children, according to federal health data released Tuesday.The data from blood tests offers the first evidence that over half the U.S. population, roughly 190 million people, has been infected at least once since the pandemic began. That is more than double the official case count. Many of those infections are likely to have been asymptomatic or with few symptoms. The virus has killed nearly 1 million Americans and caused disruptions that have driven up death rates from other causes, including cancer and heart disease.Officials cautioned, however, that the data, drawn from tens of thousands of blood samples from across the country, does not indicate people have protection against the virus going forward, especially against increasingly transmissible variants that may be able to evade antibodies. Previous infections are believed to offer some protection against severe disease for most people, especially when combined with vaccinations. But the natural waning of antibodies and an ever-evolving virus create opportunities for reinfection. “We continue to recommend that everyone be up to date on their vaccinations, get your primary series and booster, when eligible,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said during a media briefing.“We don’t know how long [ago] that infection was,” she said of antibodies from past infections. “We don’t know whether that protection has waned. We don’t know as much about that level of protection than we do about the protection we get from both vaccines and boosters.”The BA.2 “stealth” omicron variant is expected to soon become the dominant strain. Here is what you need to know about a possible new wave of infections. (Video: Brian Monroe, John Farrell/The Washington Post) The CDC report offers confirmation of what experts suspected: Most people in the country have had at least one coronavirus infection. Close to half of those got that infection in recent months when the omicron variant swept the nation. That variant, first identified in southern Africa, had so many mutations it could easily infect people who had antibodies from previous bouts of the virus or whose antibodies were generated by a vaccine.
At least 58% of U.S. population has natural antibodies from previous Covid infection, CDC says - Three out of every 5 people in the U.S. now have antibodies from a previous Covid-19 infection with the proportion even higher among children, demonstrating how widespread the virus was during the winter omicron surge, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The proportion of people with natural Covid antibodies increased substantially from about 34% of the population in December to about 58% in February during the unprecedent wave of infection driven by the highly contagious omicron variant. The CDC's analysis didn't factor in people who had antibodies from vaccination. The CDC published the data in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on Tuesday. The increase in antibody prevalence was most pronounced among children, indicating a high rate of infection among kids during the winter omicron wave. About 75% of children and teenagers now have antibodies from past Covid infections, up from about 45% in December. The high rate of infection among children is likely due to lower vaccination rates than adults. Only 28% of children 5- to 11-years-old and 59% of teens 12- to 17-years-old were fully vaccinated as of April. Children under 5-years-old are not yet eligible for vaccination. About 33% of people ages 65 and older, the group with the highest vaccination rate, had antibodies from infection. Roughly 64% of adults ages 18 to 49 and 50% of people 50 to 64 had the antibodies. The CDC analyzed about 74,000 blood samples every month from September through January from a national commercial lab network. The sample size decreased to about 46,000 in February. The CDC tested the samples for a specific type of antibody that is produced in response to Covid infection, not from vaccination. CDC officials told reporters on a call Tuesday that the study did not measure whether people with prior infections had high enough antibody levels to protect against reinfection and severe illness. However, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said health officials believe there is a lot of protection in communities across the country from vaccination, boosting and infection taken together, while cautioning that vaccination is the safest strategy to protect yourself against the virus. "Those who have detectable antibody from prior infection, we still continue to encourage them to get vaccinated," Walensky told reporters during the call. "We don't know when that infection was. We don't know whether that protection has waned. We don't know as much about that level of protection than we do about the protection we get from both vaccines and boosters." Scientists in Qatar affiliated with Cornell University found that natural infection provides about 73% protection against hospitalization if a person is reinfected with BA.2. However, three doses of Pfizer's vaccine provided much higher protection against hospitalization at 98%. The study, published in March, has not undergone peer-review.
New tool to assess Long COVID symptoms - A comprehensive tool that can assess the symptoms of Long COVID has been developed at the University of Birmingham for use in research and clinical care.Developed with patients that have lived experience of Long COVID, the tool can capture symptoms and their impact on everyday life. Currently more than 200 symptoms are associated with Long COVID which can affect people for months after the original coronavirus infection has gone. These can affect many organs in the body and include breathlessness, fatigue, or brain fog and are estimated to affect around 1.3 million people in the UK and more than 100 million people worldwide. Healthcare providers and researchers need reliable ways of measuring these symptoms as they are experienced by patients to help them develop new treatments and provide the best possible care. A team from the University of Birmingham’s Centre for Patient-Reported Outcomes Research designed the Symptom Burden Questionnaire™ for Long COVID to address this challenge. Patients can use it to report symptoms and the data can be used to help identify treatments, and test whether these are safe and effective. The approach is published today (27 April 2022) in the BMJ. “People living with Long COVID say they experience a huge range of symptoms but getting these recognised by healthcare practitioners and policy-makers has been a struggle,” said senior author, Dr Sarah Hughes. “We designed and tested this tool with our patient partners to ensure it is as comprehensive as possible, while also not being burdensome for patients to complete.” Public partner Karen Matthews from LongCOVID SOS noted “I participated in a study quite early on in my condition and the questionnaire used didn’t capture the breadth of what I was feeling. Being able to shape something that could record that experience more effectively is worthwhile and I hope it gives researchers and people like me taking part in future studies some valuable evidence.”The resulting questionnaire measures different symptoms of Long COVID and the impact of these symptoms on daily life. It was developed with extensive patient input following regulatory guidance, meaning its scores may be used to support regulatory decisions around the approval of new therapies for Long COVID and by policymakers.
Pfizer asks FDA to authorize third Covid vaccine shot for children 5 to 11 years old -- Pfizer and BioNTech on Tuesday asked the Food and Drug Administration to authorize a third dose of its Covid vaccine for children ages 5 to 11.The application comes after Pfizer released data earlier this month from a small lab study of blood samples from 30 kids in the age group, which showed a 36-fold increase in antibody levels against the omicron variant after a third dose compared with two doses of the vaccine.The booster shot is a 10-microgram dose, the same level as the primary vaccination series for the age group. The third shot did not demonstrate any new safety concerns in the trial, according to Pfizer.Only about 28% of children ages 5 to 11 had received their primary series of two doses as of April, according to CDC data.The FDA in January authorized Pfizer booster doses for teenagers 12 to 15 years old as the omicron variant swept the nation. The protection the vaccines provide against infection has declined over time, particularly in the context of omicron, which is adept at evading the antibodies that block the virus from infecting human cells. However, the vaccines are still providing strong protection against severe illness.It's unclear whether the FDA's advisory committee will meet to discuss the data and make a recommendation. The FDA did not call meetings of the outside expert panel before authorizing third shots for kids ages 12 to 15 in January and fourth shots for people ages 50 and older last month.Members of the FDA panel as well as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's advisory committee have criticized the agencies for repeatedly moving forward with expanded booster eligibility without consulting them. Several experts on the CDC committee, in a public meeting last week, said trying to stop infections with the current vaccines is an unachievable goal. The CDC committee members largely agreed that public health authorities should tell the public more clearly that the goal of the vaccines is to prevent severe illness, which the shots have largely achieved.Pfizer is also seeking FDA authorization for its three-shot vaccine for children under 5 years old, the only age group left in the U.S. that is not eligible for vaccination. CEO Albert Bourla, in a podcast interview last week, said he hopes the vaccine for that age group will receive authorization in June. The shots for the youngest kids have a much smaller, 3-microgram dosage level.
The Fifth Shot | Rafia Zakaria -ON APRIL 12, I HAD my fifth Covid-19 vaccine. I know this deserves an explanation. Most people are on their third vaccine with a fourth one now available for the old and the immune-compromised. I am in the latter group, which means that for nearly all of the pandemic I have been forced to thinkahead of the Centers for Disease Control, whose warnings and recommendations seem to come in the middle of, rather than before, surges in the Covid-19 caseloads. Late actions, for me, are worse than useless. Sadly, I have had to lie to get additional shots, which are necessitated by the fact that I suffer from an entire catalog full of autoimmune conditions, which in turn require me to be on a corresponding array of medications to keep my immune system from overreacting to perceived threats. These medications mean that my body’s reaction to immunization is less than what it is for a healthy person because the medications that keep my rheumatoid arthritis and other conditions in check also suppress my immune response to vaccines. To stop taking the autoimmune medications risks my life; to not have enough antibodies to fight a Covid-19 infection risks my life as well. The only way to not die, it appeared, was to lie. At the first pharmacy that I visited, I found the busiest-seeming woman in the world behind the counter. I told her I needed a booster. When she asked for my vaccine card, I glibly told her that I had lost mine. In this moment, I tried to fake the entitlement of the people who refuse vaccines, or even those who pretend that getting a vaccine is a favor they are doing for us, the immune compromised. Clad in my pink “Bakersfield California” sweatshirt, I became the sort of woman who would think nothing of misplacing a vaccine card. “You don’t have your vaccine card?” the busiest woman in the world asked me once again. “Do you remember if you received it at this pharmacy?” she pressed. Now exasperated in addition to being busy, she tried to word things a bit differently. “Do you have any other documentation showing that you were vaccinated?” My answer to all the questions was no. Having entered all the information on my driver’s license into their computer, they announced that they had no record of me at all (a curious fact, since I had had prescriptions filled there). Nevertheless, this was important information, and, armed with it, I began to formulate my new plan. I headed to the next pharmacy. About eight blocks away was another branch from the same chain. Now that I knew they had “no record of me” I was free to be an entirely unvaccinated client. An old white gentleman sat at the frontline counter having frustrating interactions with his computer.With my voice at the lowest volume possible, I told him I was there to receive a Covid-19 vaccine. In his loud voice, he asked me whether I had ever received the vaccine before. His incredulity at my unvaccinated status was a surprise—and unnecessary, since all off this took place in a state that has only a 55 percent vaccination rate (one of the lowest in the country).It took a full ten minutes before a woman brought him the vaccine dose. She smiled and apologized and explained that they had received a new batch of vaccines which had to be defrosted just for me. Then the old man proceeded to administer the vaccine, annoyed at the fact that I was wearing a sweatshirt that would not roll all the way up my arm. We got through this problem and finally I got the shot. That was the fourth shot. I got a new vaccine card.
Twin Cities wastewater shows steady COVID-19 increase - The coronavirus load in Twin Cities wastewater more than doubled over the past week, indicating a rising spread of COVID-19 in Minnesota. The increase reported Friday by the Metropolitan Council was influenced by a one-day spike on April 17, when the viral load surged to the highest level since January's severe omicron COVID-19 wave. However, the viral load in samples from the St. Paul treatment plant rose steadily on other days last week as well, and the uptick matches recent increases in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. The Minnesota Department of Health on Friday reported another 1,464 coronavirus infections, excluding infections identified by at-home antigen tests that aren't publicly reported. The seven-day average of new infections was 398 per day on April 1, but it increased to 827 on Tuesday. COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota rose from 183 on April 10 to 234 on Thursday. The rising totals remain far below pandemic peaks — with new cases exceeding 13,000 per day in mid-January and hospitalizations reaching 1,629 on Jan. 14. State Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm said she is encouraged that the latest growth in infections and viral load in wastewater hasn't been worse, or pressured hospitals. "If you're only looking at percentage increases, it looks like, 'Oh my gosh!'" Malcolm said, "but the actual viral load is such a small proportion of what it was at the height" of the omicron wave. Only 24 of the COVID-19 hospitalizations on Thursday involved people placed in intensive care. That represents 10% of COVID-19 hospitalizations, the lowest rate in the pandemic. The falling ICU usage rate suggests the current virus might be milder, treatments are improving or that recent infections and vaccinations have left many Minnesotans with immunity against severe illness. "A case is not a case in the same way, perhaps, in terms of the impact on health and the disruption and pressures on the health care system," Malcolm said. A review of blood drawn for various medical tests in January found that more than 48% showed the presence of coronavirus antibodies following infections. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention consequently estimated that nearly 2.7 million Minnesotans already had been infected by then — compared with the 1.4 million that have been identified by reportable COVID-19 tests. Minnesota's COVID-19 death toll is 12,492, including 10 deaths reported on Friday.
Is America in the Middle of an Invisible COVID Wave? - Over the past month, the number of new COVID cases in my social circle has become impossible to ignore. I brushed off the first few—guests at a wedding I attended in early April—as outliers during the post-Omicron lull. But then came frantic texts from two former colleagues. The next week, a friend at the local café was complaining that she’d lost her sense of smell. My Instagram feed is now surfacing selfies of people in isolation, some for the second or third time.Cases in New York City, where I live, have been creeping up since early March. Lately, they’ve risen nationally, too. On Tuesday, the national seven-day average of new COVID cases hit nearly 49,000, up from about 27,000 three weeks earlier. The uptick is likely being driven by BA.2, the new, more transmissible offshoot of Omicron that’s now dominant in the United States. BA.2 does seem to be troubling: In Western Europe and the U.K. in particular, where previous waves have tended to hit a few weeks earlier than they have in the U.S., the variant fueled a major surge in March that outpaced the Delta spike from the summer.At least so far, the official numbers in the U.S. don’t seem to show that a similar wave has made it stateside. But those numbers aren’t exactly reliable these days. In recent months, testing practices have changed across the country, as at-home rapid tests have gone fully mainstream. These tests, however, don’t usually get recorded in official case counts. This means that our data could be missing a whole lot of infections across the country—enough to obscure a large surge. So … are we in the middle of an invisible wave? I posed the question to experts, and even they were stumped by what’sreally happening in the U.S.For a while, COVID waves were not all that difficult to detect. Even at the beginning of the pandemic, when the country was desperately short of tests, people sought out medical help that showed up in hospitalization data. Later, when Americans could easily access PCR tests at clinics, their results would automatically get reported to government agencies. But what makes this moment so confusing is that the COVID metrics that reveal the most about how the coronavirus is spreading are telling us less and less. “Why we’re seeing what we’re seeing now is one of the more challenging scientific questions to answer,” Sam Scarpino, the vice president of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation, told me.Not only is our understanding of case counts limited, but all the epidemiological data we do have in the U.S. is rife with biases, because it’s collected haphazardly instead of through randomized sampling, he said. The data sets we rely on—case counts, wastewater, and hospitalizations—are “blurry pictures that we try to piece together to figure out what’s going on,” Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Brown, told me.An invisible wave is possible because cases capture only the number of people who test positive for the virus, which is different from what epidemiologists really want to know: how many people are infected in the general population. That’s always produced an undercount in how many people are actually infected, but the numbers are becoming even more uncertain as government testing sites wind down and at-home testing becomes more common. Unlike during past waves, each household can request up to eight free rapid tests from the federal government, and insurance companies are required to reimburse Americans for the cost of any additional rapid tests they purchase. These changes in testing practices leave even more room for bias.
Coronavirus dashboard for April 27: Estimating the BA.2.12.1 wave - The CDC updated its variant proportions data yesterday. BA.2.12.1 cases grew from 19% to 29% of all US cases: and from 45% to 60% in NY and NJ. At the other end of the spectrum, BA.2.12.1 was only 9% of cases in the Pacific Northwest and 8% in the South Central region. BA.1 is down to only 2% of cases:Focusing on NY and NJ, NJ has had a little spurt in the last couple of days, probably just due to an artifact of daily reporting one week ago, and is now up 15% for the week. Deleting that artifact, NJ is only up 4% for the week. NY appears to be peaking right now, 6.5 weeks after its recent lows, with cases essentially flat for the last 6 days, and up only 7% for the week. Cases tripled during that period: For the US as a whole, as of yesterday cases rose to 50,300, and are up over 20% in the last week: Hospital admissions rose 400 to 13,167, an increase of almost 20% in the last week, but still a very low historical number: Deaths declined to a new low of 338. Deaths were only lower in late June and July of last year: Applying the template from NY to the US as a whole, I suspect we will see a US peak from BA.2.12.1 by about Memorial Day at 75,000-90,000 cases and 25,000-30,000 hospitalizations. Because deaths have not bottomed yet, where they will peak in this wave is much more uncertain, but as of now they seem likely to peak a little under 1000 by mid year. The CDC also published an Important study of seroprevalence through February. I’ve cleaned up the text somewhat, and omitted the 2%-3% confidence interval noted for each subgroup. “During December 2021–February 2022, overall U.S. seroprevalence increased
- From 33.5% to 57.7%.
- from 44.2% to 75.2% among children aged 0–11 years
- from 45.6% to 74.2% among persons aged 12–17 years.
- from 36.5% to 63.7% among adults aged 18–49 years
- from 28.8% to 49.8% among those aged 50–64 years
- from 19.1% to 33.2% among those aged ≥65 years.
“[In summary, a]s of February 2022, approximately 75% of children and adolescents had serologic evidence of previous infection with SARS-CoV-2, with approximately one third becoming newly seropositive since December 2021. The greatest increases in seroprevalence during September 2021–February 2022, occurred in the age groups with the lowest vaccination coverage ....” According to the CDC, 66%, or 196M of 258M adults have had at least 2 shots, and 50M, or 90% of seniors have. But only 43% of eligible children (ages 5-17) have had 2 shots. The CDC noted that these findings are subject to some limitations, most importantly that “all samples were obtained for clinical testing might overrepresent persons with greater health care access or who more frequently seek care,” and “these findings might underestimate the cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 infections because [testing for] seroprevalence cannot account for reinfections.” I see no way to read this study without concluding that somewhere between 90%-95% of all Americans have either been vaccinated and/or infected (since 60% of the 34% unvaccinated amounts to only 13.6% of the population - and the unvaccinated have had confirmed cases at a *much* higher rate than the vaccinated). This is going to put enormous evolutionary pressure on the virus in the direction of immune avoidance. I think this also strongly suggests that the fatality rate will continue to decline. So we will await the next variant, which if it arrives 3-4 months after BA.2.12.1, will be in June or July.
‘It’s truly an early warning system.’ Sewage shows COVID cases rising in Miami-Dade -Every day, more than 143 million gallons of sewage flow into Miami-Dade’s Central District Wastewater Treatment Plant on Virginia Key — the accumulation of countless toilet flushes in homes and businesses throughout Miami, Doral, Coral Gables and Miami Beach.But it takes only a cup of all that wastewater, gathered in tiny amounts over a 24-hour period, for public health officials to get a good idea of whetherCOVID-19 is spreading among the nearly 830,000 residents served by thetreatment plant.Over the past six weeks, the volume of COVID-19 particles in wastewater samples taken at the Central District treatment plant has more than doubled — from about 43,000 copies per liter on March 3 to 107,745 copies per liter on March 17, according to Miami-Dade’s pandemic dashboard.Similar increases were recorded in March at the county’s wastewater treatment plants in the north and south of the county, which serve an estimated 1.7 million additional residents.During April, COVID-19 concentrations in the county’s wastewater have kept rising, said Roy Coley, director of the Water and Sewer Department.“Now they’re at about 200,000 copies per liter,” he said, “which is about 20% of what it was in January but triple of what it was six weeks ago.”County officials closely monitor other pandemic data, Coley said, including the ratio of COVID-19 tests that come back positive and the number of cases per 100,000 residents — both of which have increased in recent weeks.But unlike the omicron wave and the delta surge before it, the rising indicators have not yet led to a significant increase in hospitalizations.“Our numbers are going up, but hospitalizations have not,” Coley said. “Everyone is still figuring out what it means.”
Boston COVID Wastewater Data Declining. Is the Spring Surge Over? – As COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts keep rising, the wastewater data is showing signs of a peak -- and a downturn -- in the latest report. But the slight downturn does not seem to be convincing medical experts just yet. Three top Boston doctors spoke to NBC10 Boston during the weekly "COVID Q&A" series about COVID levels in the wastewater data. The doctors said more time is needed to know the real outlook of the data. Dr. Shira Doron of Tufts Medical Center said there is one reason to be skeptical about the recent slight downturn. "In the Boston wastewater, it does appear there is a consistent downward trend. (However), there is one caveat with the downturn in wastewater. It's been suggested that the one way to see a falsely low wastewater viral level is if people aren't using toilets, and that could happen if people are away for school vacation week." Get the latest news on COVID-19 delivered to you. Click here to sign up for our daily coronavirus newsletter. Dr. Daniel Kuritzkes of Brigham and Women's Hospital echoed that sentiment. "You want to be able to control for how much human fecal matter is in the wastewater by quantifying human DNA and controlling for it that way," he said. "(The downturn) is encouraging, but like all these trends, we need to see longer trends to know for sure." The COVID wastewater data seemed to have peaked earlier in April, when the levels surged to near 700 copies per milliliter, but since then it seems to have made a downturn to around 500 copies per milliliter. Dr. Sabrina Assoumou of Boston Medical Center said that while the downturn is a positive, cases across the state remain high. "It is encouraging to see it appears to be peaking, so I think time will tell," she said. "But I think we have to underscore that if you look at Massachusetts, the test positivity rate is almost 5%, so even if we peak, we have to remember there is going to be a lot of cases when we are coming down from that peak, so it is still a time to be vigilant."
India’s speedy approvals of COVID-19 vaccines come under fire - A COVID-19 vaccine named Corbevax looked like a triumph for India’s burgeoning drug industry. Because its U.S. developers hadn’t claimed a patent on it, an Indian manufacturer named Biological E was able to sell the two-dose protein-based vaccine to the government at the extraordinarily low price of 145 rupees ($1.90) per dose. In March, the country began to give the shots to 12- to 14-year-olds, a group for which India did not yet have a licensed COVID-19 vaccine. But the celebration was quickly drowned out by questions over whether India’s drug regulator, the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), had properly vetted the vaccine. In February, CDSCO had authorized the use of Corbevax for adolescents ages 12 to 18. But within weeks, the Indian media outlet The Wire Science revealed that the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), an expert group that advises the health ministry on which vaccines to add to the national immunization program, had questioned whether Biological E had shown the vaccine is effective. In adolescents, who are at a lower risk of severe COVID-19, the benefits of a vaccine should be beyond any doubt, NTAGI member Jayaprakash Muliyil tells Science: “Anytime you vaccinate children, you have to be extremely careful.” Other CDSCO approvals of COVID-19 vaccines have raised questions as well, both from NTAGI and independent experts. The agency has used “suboptimal” standards on several occasions, says Vineeta Bal, an immunologist at India’s National Institute of Immunology. That has led some scientists to ask whether the agency has the capabilities—and is independent enough—to oversee the quality of medicines for India’s 1.4 billion people. The implications go beyond India, because the country is a major global medicine supplier. The World Health Organization has “prequalified” 54 vaccines produced in India for use elsewhere, and WHO relies on CDSCO to oversee the manufacturers. CDSCO didn’t respond to questions from Science about the criticism. In May 2020, India’s health ministry appointed a committee to advise it on how to restructure India’s drug regulatory system in line with global best practices, but that committee’s recommendations haven’t been published. It’s unclear whether they will address vaccine regulation. CDSCO has a decent reputation: Based on an extensive assessment, WHO concluded in 2017 that it was a “functional” drug regulator, a distinction only 30% of its counterparts around the world enjoy. (It ranks a step below 11 agencies WHO credits with a “high level of performance,” however, including the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency.)
As the death toll in Shanghai climbs, China moves to contain the rise in new COVID infections in Beijing -Despite China having checked the spread of COVID-19 infections across Shanghai during the last four weeks of lockdown, the death toll has begun to mount quickly. After 39 deaths on Saturday, the number of new fatalities jumped to 51 on Sunday, according to Chinese health officials. This brings the total to 138 since the resurgence of cases in March. Because Chinese health officials have been tracking asymptomatic, symptomatic, and those that convert to symptomatic cases separately, the day-to-day analysis conducted by the World Socialist Web Site found that over the last several weeks, the share of symptomatic COVID cases has been climbing congruent with the nature of the disease caused by COVID. Unsurprisingly, death as a lagging indicator is beginning to confirm the lethal potential of the latest SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus variant and the critical need to eliminate every discovered outbreak. The Western press and prominent scientists, like Dr. Michael Osterholm, have insisted that the Chinese official statistics on COVID are fixed because the death tolls are so low. However, the trends captured from tracking the daily official publicly available reports give a clear insight into how the infection spreads—first asymptomatically, then escalating to symptomatic disease, followed by severe cases, and finally death. The data is consistent with what is known about the disease and efforts to discredit Chinese figures underscore the deep politicization of the pandemic even among experts in the field to vilify any attempt to eliminate the coronavirus. Men make up the larger share of the recent deaths in China, with the mean age of death averaging over 80. Many had multiple comorbidities contributing to their deaths from COVID. More than 95 percent of individuals who perished were not vaccinated, highlighting both the concerns raised by Chinese officials about the low vaccination rates among the oldest in the country and the efficacy of the Chinese vaccines in preventing hospitalizations and deaths. Overall, cases in the financial and manufacturing hub continue their downward trajectory as Zero-COVID remains the official strategy employed against the virus, with China the only country to adhere to comprehensive pandemic prevention measures. Asymptomatic cases were down to 16,983 from 19,657 a day earlier. The number of confirmed symptomatic infections was up at 2,472 from 1,401 the previous day, of which 846 were conversions to symptomatic illness. Meanwhile, 20,548 asymptomatic cases were released from medical observation, leaving almost a quarter-million people with asymptomatic cases under observation. There are presently 29,178 patients with the symptomatic disease (12.4 percent of COVID cases) in hospitals being treated, of whom 274 are in serious condition. The figure in the severe category has increased by 38.
New Omicron Subvariant Causing COVID-19 Spike in South Africa -- A new Omicron subvariant called BA.4 appears to be driving a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases in South Africa, health experts say.The number of daily cases reported by the country has shot up from just a few hundred a few weeks ago to just over 6,000, and the rate of positive tests has jumped from 4% in mid-April to 19% as of Thursday, according to theAssociated Press.Increases in coronavirus spread have also been detected in wastewater surveillance.Despite the surge in cases, there has been only a slight bump in COVID-19 hospitalizations and no increase in deaths, stressed Salim Abdool Karim, a public health expert at the University of KwaZulu-Natal who previously advised the South Africa government on its COVID-19 response.It appears the BA.4 subvariant is quickly pushing aside the original Omicron variant and other versions of the coronavirus, but "it's too early to tell whether BA.4 is going to cause a fully-fledged wave," Abdool Karim said, theAP reported.There is one concerning trend involving the new subvariant, however: Children infected with it are the first to be ending up in hospitals, echoing what happened during the first Omicron surge, said Helen Rees, executive director of the Reproductive Health and HIV Institute at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.The original Omicron variant first appeared in November in South Africa and Botswana before spreading worldwide.BA.4 appears more transmissible than both the original Omicron variant and an Omicron subvariant called BA.2, experts say. However, the World Health Organization recently said that BA.4 doesn't seem t o cause more severe illness than other versions of the coronavirus, the AP reported.
Denmark the first country to halt its Covid vaccination program-- Denmark has become the first country to halt its Covid vaccination program, saying it is doing so because the virus is now under control. "Spring has arrived, vaccine coverage in the Danish population is high, and the epidemic has reversed," the Danish Health Authority said in a statement Wednesday. "Therefore, the National Board of Health is now ending the broad vaccination efforts against Covid-19 for this season," it said. People will not be invited for vaccines from May 15, it said, although everyone will be able to finish their course of vaccination. Denmark's Covid vaccination campaign began soon after Christmas in 2020. Some 4.8 million citizens have been vaccinated, the health authority said, with more than 3.6 million people receiving a booster shot. At the same time, many people have been infected since the omicron variant became the dominant strain of the virus, it said, meaning immunity levels among the population are high. "We are in a good place," Bolette Soborg, unit manager at the National Board of Health, commented. "We have good control of the epidemic, which seems to be subsiding. Admission rates [to hospitals] are stable and we also expect them to fall soon. Therefore, we are rounding up the mass vaccination program against Covid-19.".
WHO warns of severe hepatitis among children across several countries, possibly tied to spread of COVID-19 - The World Health Organization (WHO) has advised countries that there has recently been a sudden rise in cases of acute hepatitis of unknown origin among children. Hepatitis is an inflammation of the liver that can lead to jaundice (the yellowing discoloration of the skin and whites of the eyes), poor appetite, fatigue, abdominal pain, vomiting and diarrhea. Blood work usually reveals very elevated liver enzymes. Typically, acute hepatitis resolves on its own, but it can progress to acute liver failure in some. In such instances, liver transplantation becomes a life-saving surgery. Long-term concerns include progression to scarring of the liver (cirrhosis), chronic liver failure, and liver cancer. As of April 21, 2022, at least 169 of these rare cases have been reported to the WHO across 12 countries. The age of the patients has ranged from one month to 16 years old. The United Kingdom, with 114, has reported the majority of cases. Ten of these children have required liver transplants, of which seven were in England. Spain has documented 13 such cases and Israel 12. The US has reported at least 14 severe hepatitis cases: nine in Alabama, two in North Carolina, and three in Illinois. The other countries include Denmark (six), Ireland (less than five), the Netherlands (four), Italy (four), Norway (two), France (two), Romania (one), and Belgium (one). In total, 17 children (10 percent) have undergone liver transplantation, and one child has died. The Scottish National Health Service first broke the news of these cases of acute hepatitis among children to the WHO in early April. A rapid communication to Eurosurveillance on their experience was published on April 14. They wrote in their report that “five children aged 3-5 years [presented] to the Royal Hospital for Children, Glasgow with severe hepatitis of unknown etiology within a three-week period. The typical number of cases of hepatitis of unknown etiology across Scotland would be fewer than four per year.” Of the first 10 cases in children under the age of 10 requiring hospitalization, nine of these cases had symptom onset in March and the first one was in January.
Symptoms of mysterious liver disease affecting children, Covid links - Japan's Health Ministry said Tuesday that a child had been hospitalized with an unidentified type of severe acute hepatitis — or liver inflammation — in what is thought to be the first reported case in Asia. As of April 23, at least 169 cases of the disease have been detected in 11 countries globally, according to the World Health Organization. The vast majority of those have been in the U.K. (114), followed by Spain (13), Israel (12) and the U.S. (9). The addition of Japan marks the 12th country to identify a case. Of those infected, one child has died and 17 have required liver transplants. The WHO said it is "very likely more cases will be detected before the cause can be confirmed." Children aged five years old or younger have so far been the most widely affected by the disease, though cases have been detected in children aged one month to 16 years. Common symptoms including gastroenteritis — diarrhea and nausea — followed by jaundice or yellowing of the skin and eyes. Health experts are now investigating the likely cause of the outbreak, which was first reported in the U.K. in January 2022, and whether it bears any connection to the coronavirus. Specifically, they are exploring if a lack of prior exposure to common viruses known as adenoviruses during coronavirus restrictions, or a previous infection with Covid-19, may be related. Alternatively, the genetic make-up of hepatitis may have mutated, resulting in an easier triggering of liver inflammation. Crucially, experts say there is no known link to the Covid-19 vaccine.
Synthetic “forever chemicals” known as PFAS linked to liver damage - Exposure to a class of widely used synthetic chemicals is connected to liver damage according to a new study conducted by researchers from the Keck School of Medicine of USC and published April 27th, 2022, in Environmental Health Perspectives. The chemicals, called per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances or PFAS, are a group of man-made chemicals present in a wide range of consumer and industrial products. PFAS are sometimes called forever chemicals because they break down very slowly and accumulate in the environment and in human tissue, including the liver. “PFAS are ubiquitous, and we know that all adults in the United States have detectable levels of PFAS in their bodies,” said Leda Chatzi, MD, PhD, professor of population and public health sciences at the Keck School of Medicine of USC. “There is growing interest in the long-term health effects of PFAS exposure, and this study supports that there is evidence that PFAS are associated with liver injury.”
Synthetic “forever chemicals” known as PFAS linked to liver damage - This is the first study to systematically review the data on PFAS exposure and damage to the liver, synthesizing the results of 111 peer-reviewed studies involving both humans and rodents. The researchers evaluated whether PFAS exposure was associated with elevated levels of alanine aminotransferase, or ALT, which is a liver enzyme that is a biomarker for liver damage when elevated. They concluded that three of the most commonly detected PFAS in humans — perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) — are all connected with elevated levels of ALT in the blood of both humans and rodents. Authors also noted some differences in the effects of PFAS on liver injury between females and males, suggesting a potential mechanism through hormone dysregulation. ALT is also elevated in humans with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), a condition in which excess fat builds up in the liver, suggesting a possible link between PFAS and the dramatic and unexplained rise in NAFLD in recent years. NAFLD has emerged as a serious public health crisis that affects 25% of adults worldwide. In the U.S., cases are expected to grow to about one-third of all adults by 2030. Evidence from animal experiments indicate that PFAS, which are endocrine-disrupting chemicals, can promote metabolic changes that can result in fatty liver, often diagnosed by histopathology. Likewise, epidemiological studies have reported associations between PFAS exposure and cholesterol, triglycerides, and uric acid, all of which are additional biomarkers of metabolic disruption, NAFLD and advanced liver disease. PFAS, which are present in a wide range of products including non-stick cookware, stain-resistant carpet and furniture, waterproof clothing and fast-food wrappers, were first detected in the blood of people exposed to these chemicals in the workplace in the 1970s. In the 1990s, it was found in the blood of the general population, which led to growing awareness of the potential health risks. Because they are long-lasting, PFAS are in the drinking water in most states, many food products and indoor and outdoor air. Some manufacturers in the U.S. have phased out the use of PFOA and PFOS, but the researchers noted that the risk of exposure remains.“This research clearly shows that PFAS need to be taken seriously as a human health concern because even after they are phased out, they persist in the environment,” “There is enough evidence, we believe, to demonstrate a need to clean up sources of exposure to PFAS and to prevent future exposures.”
DR Congo declares new Ebola outbreak in Equateur Province - The health authorities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared a new outbreak of Ebola on April 23, 2022, after a case was confirmed in Mbandaka, a city in the north-western Equateur Province. This is the third outbreak in the province since 2018. So far, just one case has been confirmed, WHO reports. The patient was a 31-year-old man who began experiencing symptoms on April 5 and after more than a week of care at home, sought treatment at a local health facility. He was admitted to an Ebola treatment center for intensive care on April 21 but died later that day. Investigations to determine the source of the outbreak are ongoing. “Time is not on our side,” said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Africa. “The disease has had a two-week head start and we are now playing catch-up. The positive news is that health authorities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have more experience than anyone else in the world at controlling Ebola outbreaks quickly.” The Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing its fourteenth Ebola outbreak since 1976. The current outbreak is the sixth since 2018 alone – the most frequent occurrence in the country’s Ebola history. Previous outbreaks in Equateur Province were in 2020 and 2018, with 130 and 54 recorded cases respectively.
Rise in Monkeypox infection troubling Nigeria’s rural population - Monkeypox is a viral infectious disease that jumps from a non-human animal to humans and primarily occurs in rainforest areas of Central and West Africa. Typically, it comes with rashes, fever, and swollen lymph nodes. While it is mostly transmitted to people from wild animals, human-to-human transmission also occurs. The virus is transmitted from one person to another by contact with lesions, body fluids, respiratory droplets, and contaminated materials such as bedding. Data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) website revealed that between 1971 and 1978, ten human Monkeypox infections were reported in Nigeria. While three were laboratory-confirmed – two in 1971 and one in 1978. However, between September 2017 and June 2021, Nigeria has had a surge in the number of suspected Monkeypox cases – 466 out of which 205 were confirmed. Out of the confirmed cases, there were 88 in 2017, 49 in 2018, 47 in 2019, 8 in 2020, and 13 in 2021. There have been eight deaths from the disease since September 2017. The number for 2021 is likely to be an under-representation because many people are said to have been avoiding healthcare facilities for fear of contracting COVID-19 disease. A report from the Centre for Disease Control says Monkeypox is a rare zoonotic infection having been identified first in humans in the Democratic Republic of Congo back in 1970 during a period of effort to eliminate smallpox. The first time that a case was reported in Nigeria was in 1978, when a 4-year-old child living in the southeastern part of the country fell ill with the disease, according to the NCDC. It only came up again thirty-nine years later on September 22, 2017, when a suspected case was reported to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). It can easily be confused with other rash illnesses such as smallpox, chickenpox, measles, bacterial skin infections, scabies, syphilis, and medication-associated allergies which makes it difficult to diagnose it easily. Failure to detect and report on time will result In the further spread of the disease, which may cause death in at least one in 10 of those infected. The disease can spread quickly.
Crossing barriers: How the rabbit virus myxoma leapt into a new species - Viruses are among the most protean entities in nature, ceaselessly mutating and acquiring new characteristics. These tiny entities follow a simple and relentless imperative: infect as many host organisms as possible. Occasionally, a virus’ genomic alterations enable it to leap from one species to another, in a process known as spillover. In new research appearing in the journal mBio, Masmudur Rahman and his Arizona State University colleagues join international researchers to investigate one such spillover event, when the myxoma virus (MYXV) made a species leap from European rabbits to Iberian hares. The study describes M159, a virus protein called a “host range factor” that arose very recently through a fortuitous gene pickup in the myxoma virus. The resultant hybrid strain, known as MYXV-Tol, has enabled the virus to expand its existing host range, traversing the species barrier and causing lethal disease in Iberian hares. Researchers would like to better understand these genomic transitions, as spillover events have profound implications for both human and animal health. One such recent event, caused by mutations in a novel, SARS-like virus of unknown origin, is responsible for the global pandemic of COVID-19 disease, which has killed over five million people globally. Understanding the subtle alterations enabling viruses to make species jumps may help better prepare for outbreaks of new diseases, limit their transmission, and perhaps allow researchers to outwit viral mechanisms that set the stage for spillover events. Human-engineered therapies against pathogens (including viruses) are part of a never-ending arms race between infectious agents and their host organisms. In addition to its importance for the study of host- pathogen coevolution, myxoma virus has been investigated for its remarkable ability to target and kill human cancer cells, while leaving their normal healthy cell counterparts unharmed. It is one of the most promising viruses available in the new field of virotherapy, which uses cancer fighting or oncolytic viruses, including myxoma.The new study suggests that the M159 protein not only enables MYXV-Tol to leap over the species barrier and infect hares but also appears to help this strain replicate even better in human cancer cells, potentially improving MYXV as a cancer-fighting agent.
China reports first human infected with H3N8 bird flu strain -Chinese officials have reported the first human infected with the H3N8 bird flu strain, which has been detected in horses, dogs and even seals.In a statement on Tuesday, China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said the flu variant was found in a 4-year-old child living in Zhumadian in the Henan Province.The health agency said the child started to develop fever and other symptoms on April 5 and was admitted to a local medical facility five days later due to the severity of his condition. The patient lived on a farm where he frequently came into contact with chickens, the health agency said.Though experts said the risk of large-scale transmission is low, infections in humans can lead to viral adaptive mutations that increase the risk of rapid spreading.Erik Karlsson, deputy head of the virology unit at the Institut Pasteur in Cambodia, told Reutersthe infection should prompt increased surveillance.“We need to be concerned about all spillover events,” he said. Medical experts have advised residents to avoid contact with sick and dead poultry and live poultry in daily life and to pay close attention to their dietary hygiene as well, the statement noted.
Avian flu confirmed at fifth Lancaster County facility - Avian flu has been confirmed at a fifth location in Lancaster County.It's at a commercial egg layer facility. That means those chickens lay the eggs that are sold at grocery stores.The U.S. Department of Agriculture said more than 300,000 birds had to be euthanized.More than 3.5 million birds have also been killed at four other farms in Lancaster County because of the virus.Those four farms are located in an avian flu control zone. The USDA didn't release the location of the fifth facility.If you suspect live poultry is infected, you are asked to report it to the Pennsylvania Bureau of Animal Health and Diagnostic Service at 717-772-2852.That number is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week.Symptoms of avian flu in poultry include a lack of energy and appetite. While avian flu is deadly to birds, it's still safe to eat chickens and eggs.
US egg factory roasts alive 5.3m chickens in avian flu cull – then fires almost every worker - Labourers at the one of the world’s largest egg factories arrived at the plant in Rembrandt, Iowa, early one morning in March to discover they were about to work themselves out of a job. As they gathered at the huge barns housing stacks of caged hens, the workers were told to forget about their usual routine of collecting eggs and feeding the birds. Overnight, the factory had begun slaughtering more than 5 million chickens using a gruesome killing method after detecting a single case of avian influenza. Even supervisors were assigned to the arduous task of dragging dead hens out of packed cages as Rembrandt Enterprises raced to contain the spread of the virus, amid the largest bird flu outbreak in the US in seven years. The culling has been repeated at chicken and turkey farms across Iowa and 28 other states from Maine to Utah. More than 22m birds have been killed in an attempt to contain the outbreak – the majority in Iowa, the US’s biggest producer of eggs. The slaughter of 5.3m hens at Rembrandt is the largest culling at any factory farm in the country. Workers spent nearly a month pulling the dead poultry from the cages and dumping them in carts before they were piled high in nearby fields and buried in huge pits. The killing over, about 250 people were summarily thrown out of work with just a few dozen skeleton staff remaining. In the weeks that followed, animal rights protesters targeted Rembrandt’s billionaire owner, Glen Taylor, over the cull, including disrupting games played by the professional basketball team he owns, the Minnesota Timberwolves. But few voices have been raised in support of Rembrandt’s workers, some of them undocumented migrants. Others fired from the plant contrast the seriousness with which the bird flu outbreak has been taken by Rembrandt’s management to what they describe as the company’s lax approach to the threat to workers from Covid, as it swept through factory farms and slaughterhouses in Iowa and elsewhere. “Right now everybody’s worried about the chickens,” said Oscar Garcia, a former supervisor at the plant. “We get it: it was really inhumane the way they killed them. But chickens are chickens, right? People worked in those barns pulling out dead birds in terrible conditions, faeces everywhere, doing 12- or 14-hour days. “They couldn’t protest because then they’d be fired and lose their redundancy pay. Then they’re thrown out of work and no one speaks for them.”
Utah agriculture dept. warns of food supply disruptions due to avian flu Utah agriculture officials are worried about the potential impact of avian flu outbreaks on the poultry industry and the food supply. There are two confirmed cases in the state.One, reported on April 23, was on a farm in Cache County. Because the disease is so contagious, all chickens on that farm will be culled, according to Bailee Woolstenhulme, a spokesperson for the Utah Department of Agriculture and Food.“It's going to be devastating to them, to their business, to our food supply,” she said. “That will hugely impact our egg availability and our chicken availability due to the loss of other chicken farms in the country.”The second was in a backyard flock in Utah County.Twenty-nine states have reported outbreaks to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Utah and Idaho are the furthest west.Woolstenhulme said most farms already have strict measures in place to avoid avian flu. But she suggested that Utahns with backyard chickens should keep them cooped up and away from anything that wild birds could come in contact with.It’s not just the agricultural industry that’s concerned. The Tracy Aviary in Salt Lake City has also made changes to help protect its more than 400 birds.“To be extra safe and extra cautious based on what we're seeing in Utah, we've closed a couple of our exhibits,” said Kate Lyngle-Cowand, curator of exhibit collections. “But with that said, we also have some exhibits there netted over to protect our birds from the wild waterfowl that like to frequent our ponds.”
H5N1 strain considered the worst avian flu to hit Saskatchewan since 2015 -Biologist Paule Hjertaas considers herself an avid birder and is often admiring a variety of different birds on a regular basis. But on April 8, it was a different story “First we thought it was poisoning,” said Hjertaas. “When we got home my husband phoned a conservation officer and they mentioned there was likely one case of bird flu.” Hjertass returned to the same location on April 12 and found a number of dead birds along a section of the road they had parked on. “I assumed that the birds had been there for a while,” said Hjertass. “And that’s why there was so many of them.” That day she decided to take a video of a goose that was so disoriented it could barely walk and struggled to fly. “It was obvious that the bird had neurological problems and this bird flew but he was just as disoriented flying as he was on the ground. The flight was very erratic.” Avian influenza is a flu virus that is specific to birds. They are known to naturally carry these viruses as a lot of different strains are always circulating. But provincial wildlife health specialist Iga Stasiak said this is a new strain of what is known as H5N1. “It is very different,” said Stasiak. “It’s causing more widespread mortality in our wild bird populations.” Bonnie Dell, the president of the Wildlife Society of Saskatchewan, was not surprised avian influenza had made its way into the province but was shocked to see how quickly it had begun to spread. “I, personally, note I have taken down my bird feeders,” said Dell. “I do not want to encourage birds congregating and I hope more people do that. It’s a little way to help. The ministry is also suggesting that you disinfect your bird feeders on a regular basis.
Record avian flu outbreak is threatening North America’s birds. Is the virus here to stay? | Science | AAAS - When black vultures began to die at Florida’s Hontoon Island State Park in February, rangers called in investigators from the state’s Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. They soon concluded a virus that has devastated domesticated birds worldwide had reached the vultures: a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) known as H5N1. The vultures had likely acquired the virus from eating infected waterbirds—as well as by cannibalizing their own kind.Workers removed more than 200 carcasses in a bid to contain the outbreak. But Mark Cunningham, a wildlife veterinarian with the commission, thinks the effort was probably futile. “It’s hard to see this chain of infection really breaking anytime soon,” he says.That’s a fear shared by researchers and poultry farmers across North America, who in recent weeks have been urgently documenting and trying to contain the continent’s largest outbreak of HPAI. Since the virus was first spotted in eastern Canada in November 2021, it has been spreading across the continent with migrating waterfowl. Poultry farmers have killed nearly 33 million chickens and turkeys in a bid to save other flocks and curb economic losses. Meanwhile, the virus has killed an untold number of wild birds; researchers have so far documented infections in 51 species, including bald eagles and great horned owls. That’s more than twice the number of species known to have been infected during the last North American HPAI outbreak, in 2014–15. HPAI can be far deadlier to birds than seasonal flus are to people, and each outbreak stirs fears about human infection. The current wave has produced no known human cases in North America, however, much to the relief of public health experts already battling COVID-19.Still, the scope of the HPAI outbreak “boggles the mind,” says disease ecologist Nichola Hill of the University of Massachusetts, Boston. She’s one of many researchers scrambling to understand how the virus might spread to mammals and whether the virus will hang on indefinitely in North America, as it has in Europe and Asia. “It’s everyone on board, at max capacity,” says Susan Shriner, an ornithologist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which is helping coordinate the research effort. The most important HPAI lineage, part of the H5 group of viruses, arose in the late 1990s in domestic geese in Asia. Soon it reassorted with flu strains found in wild waterbirds. In poultry, infections cause pneumonia, seizures, and hemorrhaging with mortality rates of up to 100%. Further mutations enabled those early waves of H5 viruses to infect people—H5N1 has killed 456 since 2003—raising fears that it could cause a pandemic. But so far, they have not gained the ability to readily spread from person to person.The H5 viruses did, however, cause catastrophic losses of poultry in Southeast Asia. And migratory birds carried the H5N1 strain out of Asia, first to Europe, where it killed an array of water birds, predatory birds, and scavengers such as buzzards. During the earliest outbreaks, the risk was highest during peak fall migration, when waterfowl arrived in Europe. But in the past 2 years, the virus has become endemic in Europe, present at some level year-round in wild birds. Because of the persistence of the virus—and the emergence of an apparently more pathogenic strain of H5N1—Europe has been experiencing ever-worsening HPAI outbreaks in both domestic and wild flocks. Farmers have had to undertake massive culls, and producers of free-range poultry have been forced to move their flocks indoors. Sixty-two wild species have been found infected in Europe and the Middle East in the past 4 months, with some—including barnacle geese, Dalmatian pelicans, and common cranes in Israel—suffering worrisome losses. The virus “is not something that is going to go away anytime soon,” says Arjan Stegeman, a veterinary epidemiologist at Utrecht University.
First Person in U.S. Tests Positive for Bird Flu as Largest Outbreak in Years Continues - A highly infectious bird flu that has led to the deaths of millions of birds has been found in a U.S. human for the first time. A Colorado man who worked at a farm where poultry had been infected tested positive for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, or the H5N1 flu, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) announced on Thursday. “We want to reassure Coloradans that the risk to them is low,” CDPHE state epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said in a statement. The man is under 40 years old and was directly exposed to infected poultry while working at a private farm in Montrose County. The man was an inmate at a state correctional facility in Delta County who was working at the farm as part of a pre-release program in which inmates work for private companies for a prevailing wage. He tested positive for H5N1 after taking a nasal swab, and the result was confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Wednesday. He is now self-isolating and being treated with Tamiflu, and has experienced no symptoms other than fatigue. The current H5N1 outbreak, which the CDC has been tracking since late 2021, is the largest since 2014-2015, USA TODAY reported. It has been identified in domestic and farmed birds in 29 states and wild birds in 34 states. It is suspected to have killed more than 200 birds in an outbreak at a Chicago-area lake, NBC reported. It also claimed the lives of at least three bald eagles in Georgia. Beyond that, it has led to the deaths of more than 24 million domestic chickens, turkeys and other birds culled at farms to prevent its spread, USA TODAY reported, including the birds at the facility where the Colorado man contracted the virus. In another incident reported by The Guardian Thursday, an Iowa farm called Rembrandt Enterprises killed 5.3 million chickens in March using a method called ventilation shutdown plus (VSD+), in which the barn is cut off from air and heated to temperatures of more than 104 degrees fahrenheit. “They cooked those birds alive,” one of the workers involved said, as The Guardian reported. The company has since faced criticism for its treatment of the animals and of its workers, who were fired after spending almost a month disposing of the bodies.
Climate Change Will Accelerate Viral Spillovers, Study Finds - - Over the next 50 years, climate change will drive thousands of viruses to jump from one species of mammal to another, according to a study published in Nature on Thursday. The shuffling of viruses among animals may increase the risk that one will jump into humans and cause a new pandemic, the researchers said.Scientists have long warned that a warming planet may increase the burden of diseases. Malaria, for example, is expected to spread as the mosquitoes that carry it expand their range into warming regions. But climate change might also usher in entirely new diseases, by allowing pathogens to move into new host species.“We know that species are moving, and when they do, they’re going to have these chances to share viruses,” said Colin Carlson, a biologist at Georgetown University and a co-author of the new study.To understand what that sharing will look like, Dr. Carlson and his colleagues built a computer model of potential spillovers in a warming world. The researchers started by projecting how thousands of mammals might shift their ranges as the climate changes between now and 2070.As temperatures increase, many species are expected to spread away from the blazing Equator to find more comfortable habitats. Others may move up the sides of hills and mountains to find cooler altitudes. When different species come into contact for the first time, the viruses may be able to infect new hosts.To understand the odds of a successful new infection, the researchers began by building a database of viruses and their mammalian hosts. Some viruses have been found in more than one species of mammal, which means that they must have jumped the species barrier at some point in the past.Using a computational technique called machine learning, the researchers developed a model that could predict whether two host species share a virus.The more that two species overlap geographically, the researchers found, the more likely they were to share a virus. That’s because the hosts were more likely to encounter each other, giving their viruses more opportunities to move between them.Dr. Carlson and his colleagues also showed that closely related species were more likely to share a virus than were distant relatives. That’s probably because closely related mammals are similar in their biochemistry. A virus adapted to exploit one species is more likely to thrive in a relative. It may also be able to evade an immune system similar to one to which it’s already adapted.These findings enabled Dr. Carlson and his colleagues to make predictions about what would happen when mammal species come together for the first time in a hotter world.Among the 3,139 species studied, the researchers anticipated more than 4,000 instances in which viruses would move from one species to another. In some cases, just one virus will make the jump. But the models also predicted that multiple viruses carried by one species would spread to the other.The researchers were not able to say exactly which viruses would move between which species. What matters, they argued, is the sheer scale of what’s to come.“When you’re trying to predict the weather, you don’t predict individual raindrops,” said Christopher Trisos, an ecologist at the University of Cape Town and a co-author of the new study. “You predict the clouds themselves.”
Biden presses Congress on legislation to address veterans’ toxic exposures - President Biden urged Congress to pass legislation addressing toxic exposures in veteransafter announcing that the Department of Veterans’ Affairs (VA) is taking action to help those who suffer harmful effects from having been exposed to substances.In a statement on Monday, Biden announced that the VA is issuing a rule that would propose expanding health benefits to veterans suffering from nine rare respiratory cancers.Biden said that America agrees that supporting veterans is widely supported “no matter where we live or who we voted for in the last election.”“My Administration will continue to do everything in its power to support our nation’s veterans, and I urge Congress to pass bipartisan legislation to comprehensively address toxic exposures and further deliver the vital benefits our veterans have earned,” the president said. “I will sign it immediately.” Biden first previewed the VA’s action in his State of the Union address last month, when he announced that the agency would take steps to expand care for veterans who suffer from nine rare cancers related to toxic chemicals.In a statement announcing the rule on Monday, the agency said it determined that there is “biological plausibility between airborne hazards and carcinogenesis of the respiratory tract — and the unique circumstances of these rare cancers warrant a presumption of service connection.”Burn pits were often used in areas like Southwest Asia and Afghanistan for open-air combustion of trash and other solid waste products. The VA believes that about 3.5 million veterans were exposed to these burn pits and qualify for care.The Senate passed the Health Care for Burn Pit Victims Act in mid-February, which would expand VA healthcare for combat veterans who served after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and were exposed to toxic burn pits.That legislation extends the period of eligibility for care from five years to 10 years following discharge, and includes training on toxic exposures for VA employees, mandates clinical toxic exposure screenings and boosts federal research on the topic. “We learned a horrible lesson after Vietnam, when the harmful effects of exposure to Agent Orange sometimes took years to manifest, and too many veterans were left unable to access the care they needed,” Biden said.“I refuse to repeat that mistake when it comes to the veterans of our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,” he continued.
Biden expands VA benefits for burn pit victims - The Biden administration is expanding benefits to veterans with rare types of respiratory cancers because of their links to exposure to toxic burn pits. The Veterans Affairs (VA) Department said Monday it would issue a final interim rule that adds the cancers to the list of presumed service-connected disabilities. This enables people with the cancers in question to get disability compensation. “With these new presumptives, Veterans who suffer from these rare respiratory cancers will finally get the world-class care and benefits they deserve, without having to prove causality between their service and their condition,” – VA Secretary Denis McDonoughThe military has used burn pits — open air areas where trash is burned — to get rid of its waste in places including Iraq and Afghanistan. The VA on Monday said that it determined that there is “biological plausibility” between “airborne hazards” and respiratory tract cancers. It said the illnesses’ rarity and severity make it difficult to develop additional evidence. The agency will process disability compensation claims for veterans who served in Southwest Asia starting in August 1990 through the present, or who served in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Syria or Djibouti between September 2001 and the present.President Biden also commented on the issue, saying in a statement that “we can and must do more to address the harms that come from hazardous exposures, which have gone unaddressed for far too long.”The nine cancers in question:
- squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx
- squamous cell carcinoma of the trachea
- adenocarcinoma of the trachea
- salivary gland-type tumors of the trachea
- adenosquamous carcinoma of the lung
- large cell carcinoma of the lung
- salivary gland-type tumors of the lung
- sarcomatoid carcinoma of the lung
- typical and atypical carcinoid of the lung
Read more about the issue from The Hill’s Jordan Williams
Study reveals stream restoration trade-offs: Higher environmental benefits to be had where homeowners are less willing to pay --Although stream restoration filters pollutants out of local waterways and improves the health of the Chesapeake Bay, Baltimore area neighborhoods where it would do the most for water quality are far less willing to pay for such projects, according to a new study by a University of Maryland environmental economist and an interdisciplinary team of colleagues. The team found that homeowners in the least densely populated, and generally wealthier areas of their study region, were less willing to pay to restore streams, while those in the most densely populated areas, which tended to have lower incomes, were more willing to pay for restoration projects. The study, which appeared in the journalEnvironmental Research Letters, should help inform decision makers charged with improving water quality, who often must balance community support with environmental impacts. […]The researchers focused on small, headwater streams within the Baltimore region spanning urban, suburban and exurban neighborhoods, meaning neighborhoods outside of city septic systems that are dominated by single family homes on one to five acre lots. Newburn and his colleagues developed hydrologic models that showed stream restoration had the most nitrogen reduction in the less densely populated exurban areas, where small streams predominantly have low flows. Streams lined by grassy buffers had the highest nutrient reduction compared to tree-lined streams. They suggest that low water flow in these areas allowed the streams to process nutrients in the water, and grassy buffers allowed more sunlight to reach the water than did tree covered stream banks. Sunlight is important because it helps the algae in streams to remove nitrogen from the water more effectively. The projects that had the least nitrogen pollution reduction were in the most densely populated, urban areas of Baltimore city. In these neighborhoods, urban runoff from impervious surfaces like rooftops and parking lots leads to local flooding during rainstorms, and the torrents of swift-moving water do not allow streams time to remove a substantial portion of the nutrient pollution. Next, the researchers used homeowner survey data to analyze willingness to pay for different stream restoration designs and mapped their results throughout the study region. “In rural areas you get this high environmental benefit, that has high potential to remove nitrogen pollution from waterways, particularly when you remove trees and have grassy streambanks to open up the streams to sunlight,” Newburn said. “But that's where you get the lowest willingness to pay and sometimes even resistance to tree removal from nearby homeowners compared to doing restoration somewhere else.” But in densely populated urban areas, where streams were more likely to be surrounded by man-made infrastructure, the addition of grassy meadows or trees during restoration provides green-space amenities that are often lacking, particularly in lower-income urban neighborhoods.
Dam Accounting: Taking Stock of Methane Emissions From Reservoirs - This month regulators greenlighted a transmission line that would bring power generated from Canadian hydroelectric dams to New York City. New York’s plan to achieve a zero-emissions grid by 2040 depends on hydropower, and it’s not alone. Globally hydropower is the largest source of renewable energy. In the United States it makes up 7 percent of electricity generation, and 37 states allow some form of hydropower in their renewable portfolio standards, which establishes requirements for the amount renewable energy that must be used for electricity generation.- As US states and countries across the world work to reduce fossil fuels and boost renewables, hydropower is poised to play an even bigger role.There’s just one problem: A growing body of research published over the past two decades has found that most reservoirs, including those used for hydropower, aren’t emissions-free.“Hydroelectric reservoirs are a source of biogenic greenhouse gasses and in individual cases can reach the same emission rates as thermal power plants,” Swiss researchers found in a 2016 study published in the journal PLoS ONE.Despite the green reputation of hydropower among policymakers, some reservoirs emit significant amounts of methane, along with much smaller amounts of nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide.That’s bad news because we already have a methane problem. This short-lived but potent gas packs 85 times the global warming punch of carbon dioxide over 20 years. If we hope to stave off catastrophic warming, scientists say we need to quickly cut methane. But new data show that despite this warning it’s still increasing at record levels — even with a global pledge signed by 100 countries to slash methane emissions 30 percent by 2030.Methane can rise from wetlands and other natural sources, but most emissions come from human-caused sources like oil and gas, landfills, and livestock. We’ve known about the threat from those sources for years, but emissions from reservoirs have largely been either uncounted or undercounted.In part that’s because tracking emissions from reservoirs is complicated and highly variable. Emissions can change at different times of the year or even day. They’re influenced by how the dam is managed, including fluctuations in the water level, as well as a host of environmental factors like water quality, depth, sediment, surface wind speed, and temperature.But recent scientific research provides a better framework to undertake this critical accounting. And environmental groups say it’s time for regulators to get busy putting it to work.In the United States “there are no policy requirements and no regulatory requirements that reservoir emissions be assessed and reported,” says Kelly Catlett, director of hydropower reform at American Rivers. And that’s concerning, says Daniel Estrin, general counsel and advocacy director at Waterkeeper Alliance. “We think hydropower is a totally false solution to the climate problem and would really dramatically exacerbate problems for our rivers’ biodiversity.” Dams disrupt free-flowing rivers and cause a well-documented list of harms to fish, freshwater mussels, and other animals.Gary Wockner, executive director of the river advocacy groupSave the Colorado, likens the current push for more hydropower to fracking, which was once thought of as a low-emissions “bridge fuel” to ease transition between fossil fuels and renewables.“But as the science evolved, we now know that’s not true,” he says. “In some cases, with all the leaks of methane, fracking can be worse than coal. And so here we are again in essentially a similar situation with hydropower as the science continues to evolve.”That’s why this March his organization, along with outdoor retailer Patagonia and the nonprofit Earthjustice, started pushing regulators for more accountability. The groups, along with more than 100 other signers (including The Revelator’s parent organization, the Center for Biological Diversity), have petitioned the Environmental Protection Agency to begin a rulemaking that would add dams and reservoirs under theGreenhouse Gas Reporting Program.The program currently requires 8,000 facilities to report their greenhouse gas emissions — but none are hydropower plants or other reservoirs. The United States currently has 90,000 dams, 2,500 of which provide hydropower.
UN Report Says Humanity Has Altered 70 Percent of the Earth’s Land, Putting the Planet on a ‘Crisis Footing’ - Damage to the Earth’s lands, largely caused by the expansion of agriculture, has put the planet on “crisis footing,” say the authors of a sweeping new report that urgently calls for the restoration of billions of acres of terrain to forestall the worst impacts of climate change.The report, published Wednesday, is the second major report from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), a lesser-known U.N. group that’s pressing the world’s countries, governments and industries to preserve and rehabilitate degraded lands and ecosystems. “Our health, our economy, our well-being depends on land. Our food, our water, the air we breathe are all coming from the land, at least partially,” said Ibrahim Thiaw, executive secretary of the UNCCD, in a call with reporters. “Humanity has already altered 70 percent of the land. This is a major, major figure.”Underway for five years and written by land-use and ecosystem experts across 21 organizations, the report arrives at some sobering conclusions, including that up to 40 percent of the planet’s land is already degraded, affecting half of the people alive today. Landscapes—and with them, soil, water and biodiversity—underpin societies and economies, the authors say, and roughly half of global economic output is reliant on these natural resources, yet governments have failed to adequately account for and protect them. Restoring landscapes will be critical for societies and economies to survive, they report.At current rates, an additional area nearly the size of South America will be degraded by 2050, unleashing roughly 17 percent of current annual greenhouse gas emissions every year as forests, savannahs, wetlands and mangroves are converted to agriculture or are lost to urban expansion.The report comes weeks before the UNCCD is scheduled to gather in Côte d’Ivoire for its annual conference of the parties, or COP. But the conference has received less attention than other U.N. conventions that will gather this year to address climate change and biodiversity loss. “The UNCCD is a convention that most people have never heard of, let’s be honest,” said Nigel Sizer, a land-use and policy expert with Dalberg Catalyst, a not-for-profit that works on sustainability projects. “They’re struggling to get attention for these very important issues—to get major donor governments to prioritize assistance and to get countries in the global south to prioritize these issues.”The UNCCD is making the case that the climate crisis, biodiversity loss and land degradation are integrally linked. “These conventions are being negotiated at the same time for a reason,” Thiaw said. “They’re three pieces of a puzzle.” That echoes language in the report: “We cannot stop the climate crisis today, biodiversity loss tomorrow, and land degradation the day after. We need to tackle all these issues together.”
The Rich, Black Soil That Fed a Growing China Is Washing Away --In one of his first actions as Supreme Leader, Chairman Mao Zedongsent tens of thousands of soldiers and educated youth into China’s northeastern provinces with a mission: raze the forests and replace them with houses and farms, cultivating a granary that wouldnourish a billion people for decades.The campaign was a success. The black soil region became critical to feeding the growing population, and in the following decades, thedemand for arable land also grew. In the ten years from 1990 to 2000, for example, the three provinces of northeast China added 2 million hectares of farmland, and today, the northeast region generates as much as 50% of China’s japonica rice crop, 41% of its soybeans and 34% of its corn.
Australia opens facility to convert human waste into fertilizer -An Australian plant that converts human waste into fertilizer and energy has been opened, with those involved in the project hoping it will reduce carbon emissions and save money. According to the council, the 28 million Australian dollar (around $20 million) facility "blasts sewage with extremely high heat." The Australian Renewable Energy Agency provided $6 million in funding for the project.The end product from the process is an odorless biochar which can be used as a fertilizer in agriculture, among other things. In a statement Tuesday, the council described the facility as "the first of its kind in Australia." Logan Water collaborated with a range of partners to deliver the project's gasifier. A key component of the project was the installation of two industrial strength driers constructed in Germany by ELIQUO, a Dutch firm. The driers each weigh 34 metric tons and are 18 meters in length.
Massive wildfires helped fuel global forest losses in 2021 - Unprecedented wildfires raged across Russia in 2021, burning vast swaths of forest, sending smoke as far as the North Pole and unleashing astounding amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.Logging operations continued. Insect infestations wreaked havoc. The relentless expansion of agriculture, meanwhile, fueled the disappearance of critical tropical forests in Brazil and elsewhere at a rate of 10 soccer fields a minute. Around the globe, 2021 brought more devastating losses for the world’s forests, according to a satellite-based survey by the University of Maryland and Global Forest Watch. Earth saw more than 97,500 square miles of tree cover vanish last year, an area roughly the size of Oregon.“When we lose forests, it’s kind of like locking in emissions,” said Stephanie Roe, lead global climate scientist for the World Wildlife Fund, comparing it to building a coal plant that will emit planet-warming pollutants for decades. Roe was not involved in the Global Forest Watch analysis.The latest findings include silver linings, however modest.The recent figures represent a 2 percent decline compared with losses in 2020, researchers said. And in some places, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, loss of primary forests — defined as mature, native forests undisturbed in recent history — has continued to wane in recent years.In addition, not all the losses represent permanent deforestation, especially outside the tropics.Many of the areas that vanished in 2021, such as the boreal forestsdominated by hardy spruce and pine that were burned by wildfires in Canada, Russia and the United States, are expected to grow back over time — though perhaps not soon enough to aid the world in its efforts to pull as much carbon from the atmosphere as possible.Forested plots cut down in managed tree plantations also do not necessarily result in permanent losses.But the latest data hardly offers cause for celebration.Russia experienced its “worst fire season ever,” said Elizabeth Goldman, a researcher with the World Resources Institute (WRI), which launched the Global Forest Watch project 25 years ago. While such blazes are a natural part of the boreal ecosystem, “the Russian fires are particularly worrying because of Siberia’s vast peatland area and melting permafrost, both of which can release massive amounts of stored carbon when peat is dried or burned, or when permafrost melts,” she said.This can result in feedback loops that can worsen fires and hasten climate change.
Indonesia bans palm oil exports as global food inflation spikes - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, announced plans to ban exports of the most widely used vegetable oil on Friday, in a shock move that could further inflame surging global food inflation. The halting of shipments of the cooking oil and its raw material, widely used in products ranging from cakes to cosmetics, could raise costs for packaged food producers globally and force governments to choose between using vegetable oils in food or biofuel. Indonesia counts for more than half of the global palm oil supply.
Palm oil: Indonesia export ban could send prices soaring – CNN - Indonesia will start restricting exports of palm oil this week, a move that could make the global food crisis worse and push up the prices of hundreds of consumer products.President Joko Widodo announced Friday that Indonesia would suspend exports of cooking oil, and the raw materials used to make it, "until further notice," in a bid to secure local supplies. The ban takes effect on Thursday.The Southeast Asian country is the world's biggest palm oil producer, and Friday's announcement sent prices of the commodity "berserk," said James Fry, chairman of consultancy LMC International. Crude palm oil futures in Malaysia, a global benchmark, jumped nearly 7%.The shock — and prices — subsided a little this week after Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the government would exempt crude palm oil from the restrictions. Indonesia's agriculture ministry did not immediately respond to a request from CNN Business for comment. But the restrictions are still expected to include palm olein, a more processed product which is used for cooking oil and makes up an estimated 40% to 50% of Indonesian exports, according to analysts. That would fuel inflation, just as global food prices hit all-time highs.Palm oil is a common ingredient found in many of the world's food, cosmetics and household items. WWFestimates that it's used in nearly 50% of all packaged products in supermarkets.The commodity is also used for cooking in many countries, including India, the world's top importer.Fry said that the price of many pantry items, such as cooking oil, instant noodles, snacks, baked goods and margarine could rise when Indonesia's curbs take effect.Palm oil prices were already under pressure after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as markets scrambled to find alternatives to shipments of sunflower oil stuck in Black Sea ports. Ukraine is typically a major producer of sunflower oil, but that has been "completely messed up by Russia," said Fry."We've got the perfect storm," he added, noting that other factors, such as droughts in South America and Canada, had also constrained supplies of soybean oil and canola oil, respectively.Indonesia's leader, also known as "Jokowi," said in a statement Friday that the decision to ban exports was to "ensure the national availability of cooking oil" and help keep it affordable. Indonesians have had trouble getting access to the kitchen staple as global palm oil prices surged, leading the government to roll out cash subsidies, according to Antara, Indonesia's state news agency.
Indonesia widens export ban to include crude palm oil - Indonesia the world’s biggest edible oils shipper, will widen an export ban to include crude palm oil, adding to uncertainty in a market that’s suffered dizzying price swings and threatening to worsen global food inflation. The ban will be expanded to crude palm oil, RBD palm oil and used cooking oil, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said at a briefing Wednesday. A day earlier, he said the halt would only apply to palm olein. The policy will start on April 28 and last until domestic cooking oil prices ease. Indonesia’s export policy has sent the palm oil industry into a tailspin. Prices have been whipsawed, rising one moment as the lack of details from the initial statement had traders fearing that the ban would cover all products, then slumping the next as details emerged that the move would be restricted to certain refined goods. Futures rallied 10% just before the latest announcement. It is another example of a policy flip-flop that has raised concerns about Indonesia’s business image. The country is a major commodities supplier and had imposed restrictions on nickel and coal exports in the past. Speculation about what Indonesia may do next keeps the industry constantly on its toes. Palm oil is processed and shipped in different forms. The fleshy, red fruits of the oil palm tree are crushed to produce crude palm oil. The product can be refined, bleached and deodorized to remove impurities. With further processing, palm olein is produced, which is the most widely used cooking oil in the world. The non-edible oils are used to make biodiesel and soap. The move by Indonesia, which accounts for a third of global edible oil exports, adds to a raft of crop protectionism around the world since the war in Ukraine erupted, as governments seek to protect their own food supply with agriculture prices surging. The ban threatens to further fan food inflation, which has been surging at a rampant pace, and raises the risk of a full-blown hunger crisis.
Heat wave in India threatens residents and crucial wheat harvest --A record-breaking heat wave in India exposing hundreds of millions to dangerous temperatures is damaging the country's wheat harvest, which experts say could hit countries seeking to make up imports of the food staple from conflict-riven Ukraine. With some states in India's breadbasket northern and central regions seeing forecasts with highs of 120 Fahrenheit this week, observers fear a range of lasting impacts, both local and international, from the hot spell. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told U.S. President Joe Biden earlier this month that India could step in to ease the shortfall created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The two countries account for nearly a third of all global wheat exports, and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that the conflict could leave an additional 8 million to 13 million people undernourished by next year. India's wheat exports hit 8.7 million tons in the fiscal year ending in March, with the government predicting record production levels — some 122 million tons — in 2022. But the country has just endured its hottest March since records began, according to the India Meteorological Department, and the heat wave is dragging well into harvest time. The heat wave is hitting India's main wheat-growing regions particularly hard, with temperatures this week set to hit 112 F in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh; 120 F in Chandigarh, Punjab; and 109 F in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh. Devendra Singh Chauhan, a farmer from Uttar Pradesh's Etawah district, told NBC News that his wheat crop was down 60 percent compared to normal harvests. "In March, when the ideal temperature should rise gradually, we saw it jump suddenly from 32 C to 40 C [90 F to 104 F]," he said in a text message. "If such unreasonable weather patterns continue year after year, farmers will suffer badly."
India staring at power outage in multiple states -- Amid rising power demand in the country due to a continued heat wave, India is staring at an electricity crisis accentuated due to a coal shortage at over 150 power plants. The coal stock position at the Central Election Authority (CEA) supervised 173 power plants stood at 21.93 million tonnes (MT), which, according to a Nomura report, is less than the regulatory requirement of 66.32 MT as on April 21. Media reports have suggested that coal inventories had dipped to the lowest since 2014 at the beginning of the financial year to nine days as against the Centre's mandated 24 days' worth of stocks. While on one hand, the CEA daily coal report said that coal stock at 81 out of the 150 government owned power plants is critical, on the other is the increased power demand -- from 106.6 billion units (BU) in 2019, it increased to 124.2 BU in 2021 to 132 BU in 2022. "There is a coal shortage and the situation still could have been salvaged, but the early heat has exponentially increased the power demand, widening the demand-supply gap," said an official from the power sector. States such as Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana and Andhra Pradesh are witnessing powercuts amid low coal stocks. Earlier on Friday, the Maharashtra government had declared that it is planning to import coal and acquire a coal mine from Chhattisgarh for power generation. "Coal is not being supplied in the country as per demand, forcing us to consider alternatives to bridge the gap of around 3,500 MW-4,000 MW shortfall between the demand and supply," Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar had told mediapersons in Mumbai. Last week, the state Cabinet authorised the Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Co Ltd to purchase power from elsewhere to tide over the current crisis. Pawar reiterated that insufficient coal is being supplied to various states by the Centre, and even Maharashtra is not getting the required quantities, though all efforts are being made to ensure smooth power supply and end the ongoing powercuts. The coal shortage has further been accentuated due to shortage of railway rakes for coal supply of the power plants.
Early-season heatwave grips India, causing worst energy crisis in 6 years - -- Dangerous heatwave conditions are affecting vast swathes of India since mid-April, bringing temperatures 4.5 – 8.5 C (8 to 15 F) above average in east, central and northwest India.
- The heatwave comes after the country recorded its hottest March on record.
- The country as a whole recorded 8.9 mm (0.35 inches) of rainfall in March, which was 71% less than its long period average rainfall of 30.4 mm (1.19 inches). It was also the third-lowest precipitation in March since 1901 after 7.2 mm (0.28 inches) in 1909 and 8.7 mm (0.34 inches) in 1908.
- An energy crisis is now affecting portions of the country as coal supplies have run out amid record consumption.
- A change in temperatures is expected around May 4 with a cyclonic circulation system developing in the Andaman Sea followed by low pressure by May 5.
On Tuesday, April 26, 2022, a high of 45.1 °C (113.2°F) was reported at Barmer, West Rajasthan while many other localities recorded temperatures of 42 – 44°C (108 – 111°F).1 On Wednesday, April 27, the highest temperature in the country was recorded in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh at 45.9°C (114.6°F). Gurugram logged an all-time high of 45.6 °C (114 °F) on Thursday, April 28, breaking the previous record of 44.8 °C (112.6 °F) set on April 28, 1979. On the same day, Delhi recorded 43.5 °C (110.3 °F), marking its hottest April day in 12 years. Its maximum temperature of 43.7 °C (110.6 °F) was set on April 18, 2010. In Madhya Pradesh, Khajuraho registered 45.6 °C (114 °F), Nowgong 45.6 °C (114 °F), and Khargone 45.2 °C (113.3 °F), while in Maharashtra, Akola recorded 45.4 °C (113.7 °F), Bramhapuri 45.2 °C (113.3 °F) and Jalgaon 45.6 °C (114 °F). India’s peak power demand in a day touched the all-time high of 204.65 GW on Thursday while various states warned they are lacking enough coal to maintain power production. Delhi Minister Satyendar Jain, for example, said the national capital had only one day’s worth of coal supply left.
Northern Arizona may see drinking water cutoff as Lake Powell continues to dry up (video) — Arizona's top water official says he never thought this day would come so soon.Federal officials are warning that the West's escalating water crisis could put some Arizona communities' "health and safety" at risk, by cutting off their supply of drinking water. "This is really getting to (be) a health and safety issue... the health and safety of those who want to turn on the tap and have water," Tom Buschatzke, Arizona's director of water resources, said in an interview on this weekend's "Sunday Square Off."Arizona and other Western states have until Friday to respond to an emergency request to postpone their water deliveries from the Colorado River, in order to shore up a rapidly diminishing Lake Powell.If Lake Powell's levels continue to fall, the letter says, access to drinking water would be cut off for the 7,500 residents of Page, at the southwestern tip of the reservoir, and the neighboring Navajo community of LeChee."I never thought this day would come this quickly," Buschatzke said. "But I think we always knew that this day was potentially out there." "We're going to have to learn to live with less water," he said.The goal is to keep water levels at Lake Powell high enough to support power generation at the lake's Glen Canyon Dam and future water supplies to Lake Mead. The two reservoirs on the Colorado River provide 40 percent of Arizona's water supply. But the lake levels have declined precipitously over the last 20 years, owing to a historic megadrought and the effects of human-caused climate change. "Our task is to avoid the outcome in which the reservoirs are empty... and it's getting more difficult," said Buschatzke, who's shepherded Arizona water resources for 40 years. Buschatzke did say the state would respond to the Interior Department's request to delay water deliveries. "We will take actions to protect Arizona," he said. "I just can't say if it will be the specific action that the secretary proposed, but we will act."
‘Unprecedented’ Water Restrictions Ordered in Drought-Ravaged California - As California endures a third year of record-breaking drought exacerbated by the climate crisis, officials on Tuesday declared the state’s first-ever water shortage emergency and ordered outdoor use restrictions that will affect around six million people in three southern counties. The Metropolitan Water District (MWD) of Southern California announced that it will limit outdoor watering to one day per week, effective June 1 in parts of Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties.“We don’t have enough water supplies right now to meet normal demand. The water is not there,” MWD spokesperson Rebecca Kimitch told reporters. “This is unprecedented territory. We’ve never done anything like this before.”Adel Hagekhalil, MWD’s general manager, said: “We’re reaching uncharted territory here and we need all Southern Californians to be part of the solution. We need everyone to take action to reduce their water use immediately. This drought emergency declaration helps us all move in the same direction.”MWD, the nation’s largest wholesaler of treated water, draws supplies from the Colorado River and State Water Project—a complex system involving aqueducts, pumping stations, and power plants to redistribute water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta in the north to farmland and cities to the south—to serve 19 million people in 26 public water jurisdictions.According to the Los Angeles Times:California’s drought, now in a third year, has become the driest on record and has been intensified by hotter temperatures unleashed by climate change. With the state’s major reservoirs at low levels, the MWD has been left without enough water in parts of Southern California.“These areas rely on extremely limited supplies from Northern California, and there is not enough supply available to meet the normal demands in these areas for the remainder of the year,” Hagekhalil told the paper.MWD says it will only be able to deliver about 5% of its usual water allocation this year. The agency pointed to the historic drought, which is now in its third year. Last year and 2020 saw the lowest precipitation ever measured in the state, and the first three months of 2022 were the driest in its recorded history in terms of rain and snowfall.The Golden State has experienced higher-than-average rain and snowfall so far this month, with parts of the Sierra Nevada mountain region receiving twice as much precipitation in April than in January.
‘This Is a Crisis’: 6 Million People in SoCal Face 'Unprecedented’ Water Restrictions - In an unprecedented move, California officials are ordering residents and businesses in three Southern California counties to limit their outdoor water use to one day a week. The restrictions will go into effect June 1 and impact millions of people living in Los Angeles, Ventura and San Bernardino counties. The move comes as the U.S. West is in the midst of a worst-in-1,200-years megadrought that scientists say has been made 42 percent more extreme because of the climate crisis. “This is a crisis. This is unprecedented. We have never done anything like this before and because we haven’t seen this situation happen like this before, we don’t have enough water to meet normal demands for the six million people living in the State Water Project dependent areas,” Metropolitan Water District of Southern California general manager Adel Hagekhalil said, as CNN reported. The State Water Project is a system of canals, pipelines, dams and reservoirs that carries water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to 27 million people and 750,000 acres of farmland, The Guardian reported. On Tuesday, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California declared a “Water Shortage Emergency Condition” for everyone served by this project, according to a memo.“[D]ue to the depth and duration of the current drought, Metropolitan cannot meet normal demands in the SWP Dependent Area with existing resources,” the district wrote. Anyone violating the restrictions will be fined $2,000 per acre-foot of excess water used, The Washington Post reported. Overall, people in Southern California are being asked to reduce their water use by 20 to 30 percent. California experienced its driest January to March on record “by a huge margin,” according to the National Weather Service.
Eagle County water provides pursue new water storage reservoir -The impacts of climate change have pushed water providers in Eagle County to pursue a new strategic water reserve — a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency supply officials say they need amid fears of increasing water scarcity. The Eagle River Water & Sanitation District and The Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority — sister agencies that collectively serve 27,000 residents from Vail to Wolcott, a number that can more than double at different times of the year — looked at their modeling during the past several years and were particularly concerned about the possibility of getting through an extremely dry spell like 2002, a year when the average Colorado River Basin snowpack sat at a dismal 30% in May. “Our system is going to be vulnerable if 2002 happens again,” said Jason Cowles, director of engineering and water resources at the Eagle River Water & Sanitation District. The district and the authority recently took an important step in building this new strategic stash of water by finalizing a deal to purchase the site of Bolts Lake, a 45-acre plot of land that sits at the south end of Minturn. The two agencies acquired the spot from Battle North, a developer that owned the land and is planning to build a housing development in that area. Once the site of a recreational pool of water, the state determined in the 1990s that the dam at Bolts Lake was unsafe. The state ordered that the dam be breached. Now, the Eagle County water providers want to build a new dam and develop the old Bolts Lake site into a storage reservoir that could hold up to 1,200 acre-feet of water, a project that would likely take around 10 years and has a preliminary price tag of between $50 and $65 million. (An acre-foot is the amount of water it takes to cover an acre in a foot of water, or about 326,000 gallons; one acre-foot is roughly enough to meet the needs of three Colorado households a year on average) Cowles said that in a low-water year like 2002, based on new development that’s already been approved and planned for, the district and the authority would be cutting it close based on current supply. “We looked at just historical hydrology and saw that, particularly in the water authority service area, that they would use all their in-basin reservoir storage in a 2002-type drought scenario — and that completely ignores climate change,” Cowles said. “And so if there’s an event worse than that, we have no water for that, and then you get into shortages and more dramatic cutbacks and things of that nature.” The finalized deal for the purchase of the Bolts Lake site — an intergovernmental agreement between the two water authorities and the town of Minturn — also includes additional water for Minturn. Initially, the town will get 20 acre-feet of water. The town will get a little more once the project is further along.
Wildfire tears through Colorado ranch sanctuary, threatening progress --Four generations of the May family had been transforming their high sage and sandy creek-bottom country into a sustainable conservation ranch. More birds, less plowing. More wetlands, fewer row crops. More sanctuaries for endangered species, less human intervention. But, as forever in ranching, balancing the elements is hubris, and temporary. Sooner or later, likely sooner, there will be too much wind, scraping away too much earth. Too much fire, and not nearly enough water. Ranch patriarch Dallas May was with son Riley and son-in-law Wes over the border in Kansas on Friday morning, delivering hay to a dairy in Coolidge, when he got a call about smoke at the southeastern corner of the family property, where Big Sandy Creek meets the Arkansas River. They raced back west, while Dallas’ brother Bon, his children and in-laws, and wranglers on horseback went into action. The ranch has a wildfire plan. The Mays had talked about it just the week before with Prowers County Rural Fire Chief Staffon Warn. Dallas May, Warn said, worried that any new spark after a winter with zero snow cover would start near all the bird and other riparian habitat the ranch had meticulously crafted along the precious waterways. It would be hard to get in there with firefighting equipment, and it would likely burn, May told the chief. It was. And it did. Warn says the wind Friday morning was 56 miles per hour, sweeping north toward the heart of the ranch. Prowers County Sheriff Sam Zordel, who rushed to the ranch headquarters, says, “I swear it was higher than that. I mean, I don’t have an official report to justify my thoughts, but it was howling pretty good.” The family, ranch hands and neighbors arriving in skidding pickups jumped into front-end loaders and road graders the Mays keep at their machine shops for the express purpose of digging firebreaks amid prairie winds. The big machines plowed through fences to free cattle, who will stand at a fence and burn up rather than try to knock it over. May Ranch has about 350 pregnant cows this spring. In April, they are calving nearly every hour, around the clock. About 90% of them were immediately in the path of the fast-spreading south end fire. At first they said no family members were lost. But in all the later tellings of the grassland wildfire that raced across 9,000 acres of May Ranch near Lamar last weekend, the distinction between working animals and family members disappeared as quickly as 50 miles of burned fencing. May Ranch cowboy Chano Villalobos dropped the reins of his closest working companion, a gray named Chapo, amid a raging smokestorm last Friday, counting on his trusted partner to stand still while Villalobos hurried to open a gate and save dozens of waiting cattle. Many of them were mama cows, calving before, during and after the firestorm driven by 50-mile-an-hour winds. Chapo stood still. When Villalobos turned back to jump on and push the cattle to safety, his horse’s saddle blanket was on fire. Chapo wouldn’t stand still for that. The horse turned and sprinted into the smoke. The cows were saved, as were nearly all the thousands of critters large and small that call the sprawling ranch home. Chapo was not. Villalobos took what was left of his saddle off Chapo’s body when he found it Saturday morning, in burned-over shortgrass. To everyone who worked the 800-head Limousin cattle ranch with Villalobos, if that loss was anything, it was a family loss.
Wildfires scorch northern New Mexico, U.S. - Strong, gusty winds, extremely low humidity and an exceedingly dry landscape fueled an early and severe fire season in New Mexico, U.S. As of April 19, nearly 99% of the state of New Mexico was dealing with some level of drought, with 63% rated at extreme to exceptional levels of dryness. Amid those conditions, nearly 55 441 ha (137 000 acres) of forests and grasslands were burning in five major fires across New Mexico on April 25. The Hermes Peak fire east of Santa Fe has consumed 22 855ha (56 478 acres) of land as of April 25 and was only 12% contained. This fire started as a prescribed burn in a part of the Santa Fe National Forest on April 19 but strong winds on April 22 and 23 pushed it through steep terrain and caused it to merge with the Calf Canyon fire, creating a fire complex with more than 290 km (180 miles) of perimeter. The Cooks Peak fire northeast of Santa Fe has so far consumed 21 036 ha (51 982 acres) of land and was only 9% contained as of April 25. The fire started on April 17 but the cause is still under investigation. Nearly 1 000 state and federal firefighters were working to contain the Cooks Peak and Hermits Peak blazes, as well as three others across northern New Mexico, EO reports.1 According to news reports, hundreds of structures have been burned.According to the National Interagency Fire Center on April 25, 14 large, active fires were burning across 98 743 ha (244 000 acres) in eleven states. Since the start of 2022, at least 20 262 wildfires have burned 350 170 ha (865 290 acres) in the United States, well above the 10–year average through April.
Climate Migration: What Do We Really Know? - How Can Climate Change Affect Migration? Migration comes in many forms – temporary or permanent, local, rural-urban or international, forced or voluntary – and happens for many reasons – economic or political, or because people are fleeing from acute violence or natural disasters. The ways in which climate change could affect migration are therefore complex.The academic literature distinguishes between impacts from fast-onset events like hurricanes, and slow-onset events like declining agricultural yields or desertification. The former usually have a direct impact resulting in forced, temporary and local displacement, whereas the latter more often have an indirect economic impact causing long-term, gradual and often voluntary migration. Rising sea levels, although a slow-onset event, can nevertheless directly result in forced and local migration, and threatens many densely populated areas worldwide. Moreover, over time the frequency of climate-related natural disasters is expected to increase, which raises questions about the impact of repeated fast-onset events.Another layer of complexity is added by the fact that migration responses differ between individuals, for example because wealthier migrants can afford to move further, while poor farmers might not be able to move at all if their incomes decline due to climate change. Individuals from more developed countries may not even need to move, as their incomes do not depend heavily on agriculture or because they have the means to adapt to the effects of climate change.The complex reality of migration (and the lack of adequate historical data to capture incipient climate change and consistent data on migration) is mirrored by the contrasting results of empirical studies and models that try to estimate past or future effects of climate change on migration. One 2016 study, for example, found that in middle-income countries rising long-term average temperatures increase migration from rural areas to cities, as well as migration to nearby countries. In poor countries, it found a negative effect for both internal and international migration, which is attributed to exacerbated income constraints on poor agricultural workers.Other studies find positive effects of weather anomalies on migration both within and from sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that income constraints are not absolute. Another 2015 paper did not find any direct effect of long-term climate factors on international migration but suggested that natural disasters and rainfall shortages can have an indirect effect through income differentials.
Dry, Dusty, Rain. Humid, Windy, Dry. Chaos and The Grip of La Niña - Just how dry have the ground conditions been? Dire. Fire sweeping towns from Austin to Los Angeles, dire. Rain? Forecast yes, but closer to the Powell Line. The Powell Line, as stated previously is where the dry plains and the wet prairie meet. An abundance and a desert. Too much and not enough. Floods and fire. California is an example we must follow and the amount of mulch we have spread to keep the ground moist measures in the tens of tonnes this season, and we need more. A lot more. California more. As of March, the United States start here. A wicked assault of lack of rainfall that is plaguing the western US, Central, South-West, and even parts of the North-East as the departures from the norm dry out the nation. Much of this is typical for an La Nina year. However this has been exacerbated by climate change, and as such exponentially worse than normal. The story of the Lost Pines of the Two Brothers was almost lost in Texas in 2011, where the pine forest outside of Bastrop was almost lost. Huge swaths of land burned uncontrollably close to Houston and Austin. Much closer to communities such as mine and others close by. Parts of the country are at record deficits. We received an inch and a quarter today, but our eight and then some inches for the year are far beyond the normal fourteen or more at this point in the year. We are usually at 40 inches per year, and most delivered in Central Texas between February and May, and then again September/October to November/December. This makes the honest case for a two grow season farming economy, spring and fall. We always asterisk the fall because Hurricane Season is a huge variable on the Gulf Coast. Spring brings us 20 inches or so, fall can be either a lamb or a bear. Just how bad is it? Let’s look at the accumulation data from a few agriculturally important spots around the country. We start with our farm, where we started this morning below. Well below. We keep on farm data from two gauges and are close to this, but this shows how hit or miss things have been this year, so far:Let’s get out of Texas for a bit. We know West and North Texas are a mess. Around the nation we are seeing accumulations that are alarming. Kansas has been hit hard, for starters, as one of the worst examples:Well below anything seen recently. Nebraska hasn’t fared much better. These two are the Midwest Corn Belt, and play an important role in ag, ethanol, and general sentiment in the market. Let’s branch out a bit. North Texas. South to North it isn’t getting better. To the east, more than they need (looking at you Tennessee), to the north, it’s been snow, and then mud, making planting hard. Cattle land and Cotton capital of Texas:
La Nina may enter rare third year. What that means. --Meteorologists are monitoring the potential for a “triple-dip La Niña,” an unusual resurgence of cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific. While such a phenomenon might seem remote, La Niña plays an enormous role in our weather stateside. In addition to helping juice up tornado season in the spring, La Niña has been known to supercharge Atlantic hurricane season when it sticks around into the summer and fall. La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, which are both sides of the coin that make up ENSO, or the El Niño Southern Oscillation. El Niño represents ENSO’s positive “warm” phase, while La Niña is the opposite. The effects of the different phases are wide-reaching and significant, with implications on the weather experienced all across the globe.La Niña and El Niño typically flip back and forth every one to three years, with some swings of the pendulum more dramatic than others. Most of late 2019 into the first half of 2020 was “ENSO neutral,” or somewhere in between El Niño and La Niña. Then a La Niña started to emerge during the end of summer in 2020, overlapping with the height of a record-breaking hurricane season. Thirty named storms spun up across the Atlantic that season, including a record seven major hurricanes.After persisting through spring 2021, La Niña took a breather last summer and returned to an ENSO-neutral state before the needle dipped back into the La Niña category in the fall. The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced 21 named storms, third most on record.La Niña persisted through the winter and is still going strong. March proved the most active on record for tornadoes across the Lower 48. Looking ahead, NOAA is maintaining a La Niña advisory, writing on April 25 that “the tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña.”They say that La Niña is favored to continue through the summer, with 59 percent odds of remaining into July, August and September. There are 50-55 percent odds of La Niña persisting into the fall. Since bookkeeping began in 1950, there have been eight “double-dip” La Niñas, including the present. Only two ended up evolving to have a third consecutive La Niña winter. If La Niña does stick around into the late autumn, the possibility of a triple dip La Niña will grow.There is evidence to suggest that La Niña patterns bolster the risk of severe weather across parts of the South and the southern Plains during tornado season, which peaks in April and May. The bull’s eye of greatest enhancement has historically been centered in Arkansas, though the risk expands across a much broader region. Part of that stems from the jet stream pattern — the high-altitude river of wind slices across the country west to east, allowing hot and dry weather to crop up in southern areas while cool Canadian air sags south to the north of the jet. In between, the seasons wage war, the resulting clash helping spark thunderstorms. The jet stream simultaneously imparts wind shear, or a change of wind speed and/or direction with height, which helps the storms to rotate. La Niña could also be a concern in the upcoming hurricane season, which is already projected to be above average. That’s because La Niña patterns are characterized by a subtle weakening of upper-level winds in the tropics. That effectively reduces wind shear, which facilitates the formation of hurricanes. If La Niña manages to hold on through the fall and into next year, becoming a true “triple dip” event, it could have the following additional effects:
- Worsening drought conditions in the Southwest and elevating the fire danger since La Niñas tend to result in reduced precipitation in the region
- Raising the odds of a relatively cold, stormy winter across the northern tier of the United States and a mild, dry winter across the South, not unlike this past winter
What La Niña means for Iowa this summer - La Niña has been with us all year, and it’s not showing any sign of leaving soon.The climate pattern is favored to continue through the summer, according to an updated outlook released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. There’s a 59% chance will stick around through August, and the odds are about even that it will continue past August into the fall (NOAA is giving it a 50-55% chance right now).La Niña – and its opposite, El Niño – are characterized by the temperature of the Pacific Ocean. But they have major impacts on the weather we experience on land.La Niña typically brings drier conditions to the southern half of the country and more precipitation to pockets of the northern half. Drought conditions often worsen, and that looks to be the case for most of the West this summer. The only exception is southern Arizona, which may see an active monsoon season.This summer, NOAA is also forecasting above-average rainfall for Florida and for the area surrounding the Ohio Valley, including Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and more (see maps below).La Niña winters are usually warmer in the South and cooler in the Northern states. When it comes to the summer, NOAA is predicting a hot one for just about everyone. The three-month outlook shows warm weather for all states except the Great Lakes region.The hottest temperatures are predicted out West, in Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona.NOAA’s three-month outlook shows expected conditions for summer 2022 under La Niña. (NOAA maps) La Niña also has an impact on hurricane season. It typically weakens storms originating in the Pacific, but leads to stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic. Hurricane season doesn’t usually peak until late summer, but meteorologists are already predicting a busier-than-average year for 2022. Colorado State University’s hurricane outlook calls for 19 named storms, nine of which they expect to be “major hurricanes.”
Is 'Tornado Alley' shifting east? | AccuWeather - On average, 1,200 tornadoes hit the United States each year, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), and while twisters can happen at any time and in any state, the prevailing wisdom has held that most of the large twisters occur in Tornado Alley, an expansive area within the central U.S. designated by meteorologists in the mid-20th century. That definition may be changing. The term Tornado Alley was coined in 1952 when two meteorologists studied severe weather in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The research paper, titled "Tornado Alley," was published by two U.S. Air Force meteorologists -- Major Ernest J. Fawbush and Captain Robert C. Miller, who created the first tornado forecast in 1948. Since then, the term has stuck around as a way to describe the area that encompasses parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota, where it was believed tornadoes are the most frequent. With powerful tornadoes decimating areas in the Midwest and the southeastern U.S. over the past 20 years, there now may be a reason to believe that Tornado Alley has shifted east. "When you look at the trends in where tornadoes have occurred in recent years, it's very clear that there have been more tornadoes farther south and farther east away from what people have typically known as the Tornado Alley across the Plains," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter explained. A study conducted in 2018 and published in the journal Nature showed that the ingredients required to produce long-lived twisters were flourishing more in the Mississippi River valley in the last 20 years than parts of the original Tornado Alley. Furthermore, the paper says, the number of days with meteorological conditions conducive to tornadoes has declined for parts of the original Tornado Alley, while the number of tornado days has increased significantly east of the Mississippi River.In February 2022, another research paper concluded that large tornado outbreaks have shifted geographically when considering the years from 1989 to 2019 vs. 1950 to 1980. According to the study, "spatial analysis of [large tornado outbreaks] reveals that their nucleus has been shifting to the Southeast during the recent 31 years compared to the earlier records." AccuWeather's analysis of this, and other research, shows the area of the most common tornado occurrence, i.e. Tornado Alley, has moved from the Plains to the Southeast and parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley over the last few decades. This shift is illustrated best when comparing the 35-year period of 1985-2019 to 1950-1984. AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok attributed tornadoes becoming more frequent to the east of Tornado Alley due to the lack of moisture in the original Tornado Alley, which can be traced back to the 20-year mega-drought gripping much of the Southwest.
Tropical Storm “Jasmine” to make landfall over Madagascar - Tropical Storm “Jasmine” formed in the Mozambique Channel on April 24, 2022, as the 11th named storm of the 2021/22 Southwest Indian Ocean Cyclone Season. The storm is expected to make landfall in an area close to Toliara, Madagascar during the afternoon hours (LT) of April 26, with maximum sustained winds up to 105 km/h (65 mph). At 06:00 UTC on April 26, Jasmine was a Severe Tropical Storm located about 150 km (95 miles) NNE of Toliara, Madagascar. The storm had maximum average 10-minute wind speed of 100 km/h (62 mph) and a central pressure of 989 hPa, RSMC La Reunion said.1 Jasmine is moving ESE at 15 km/h (9 mph) and is expected to make landfall in the afternoon (LT) of April 26 in an area close to Toliara. tropical cyclone jasmine 07z april 26 2022 bg Image credit: UW-CIMSS The weather deterioration has started near Toliara and the conditions should worsen in the next hours, the center said. Maximum wind gusts of 130 km/h (80 mph) are possible near the landing area. Heavy rains may give rainfall totals around 100 to 150 mm (4 – 6 inches) in a few hours south of the track. A storm surge in the order of 10 to 30 cm (0.3 – 1 foot) may cause flooding in exposed areas with the swells.
Huge cloud of Saharan dust moving over the Mediterranean Sea into SE Europe - A huge cloud of Saharan dust is moving over the Mediterranean Sea into Italy and southeastern Europe on April 24, 2022. The dust lifted off Algeria and Tunisia and started moving over the Mediterranean Sea on April 21 and 22.By April 23, it was over Sardinia and Corsica, as seen in the Sentinel-3 image below:
Severe dust storms and large hail hit parts of the Middle East - Severe dust storms are affecting parts of the Middle East over the past couple of days, from the Mediterranean Sea to parts of Saudi Arabia. On Monday, April 25, 2022, authorities in Jordan ordered schools in the south of the kingdom to close due to the heavy spread of dust. According to The National News, schools in the governorates of Karak, Tafila, Aqaba and Maan were closed. The Ministry of Public Works urged drivers to exercise caution because of a drop in visibility. A number of regions in Saudi Arabia also saw severe dust storms and large hail on Monday, prompting the National Meteorological Center to warn citizens to take precautions due to the near absence of visibility. Many regions of the Kingdom such as Tabuk, Northern Frontiers, Al-Jawf, Ha’il, Al-Qasim, Riyadh and the Eastern regions have been affected, as well as parts of Najran, Jazan, Asir, Al-Bahah, Mecca and districts of the Medina.
Power out for more than 10,000, and is likely to remain out multiple days for some - Power is out all over the region in Williams, McKenzie and Richland county Montana. The wind knocked multiple utility poles down overnight Saturday, April 23, leaving more than 10,000 homes and business without power. While strong wind continues, there will be continuing risk to ice-covered power lines and poles. Mountrail Williams, Montana Dakota Utilities, and LYREC in Richland County, Montana, and Lower Yellowstone Rural Electric in McKenzie County have all reported they are out working to restore power as quickly as possible. They have advised customers that due to the extent of damage, including dozens of broken poles, that the outage is likely to be extensive. Williams, McKenzie and Richland Counties are all recommending that people shelter in place. Most businesses are also without power at this time. Do not use generators indoors or attempt to heat your house with a gas stove or oven. Check vents to remove ice buildup to prevent carbon monoxide poisoning. Layers of loose-fitting, lightweight, warm clothing will keep you warmer than a bulky sweater. See the side bar for more tips on staying warm safely. You can track MDU power outage progress online at https://buff.ly/2JxmOpH and Mountrail Williams at https://www.mwec.com/outage-center. Due to the volume of calls at this time, Mountrail Williams is asking its customers to use its Smart Hub app, https://mwec.smarthub.coop/Login.html to report outages. If you cannot get the app, you can still call 800-279-2667. Their Smart Hub app also allows you to track the progress for your outage. MDU customers can report emergency situations and power outages by calling 800-638-3278.
Blizzard damage 'unprecedented,' Montana-Dakota Utilities says; thousands remain without power – A weekend blizzard that brought snow, rain, ice and strong winds to western North Dakota downed hundreds and possibly thousands of electrical poles, destruction that might be among the worst ever seen. "The damage we have assessed so far is unprecedented. It’s the worst damage Montana-Dakota Utilities has had on its system," spokesman Mark Hanson said. "We have hundreds of cross arms broken and miles of poles down." MDU's history dates to 1924. The utility will have at least 15 crews -- up to 60 workers -- in northwestern North Dakota this week, possibly more if aerial surveys Monday show even more damage than anticipated. "We’ll get a look at the lines our crews could not view from the ground," Hanson said. Poweroutage.us does not track all electrical providers, however, and there are several in western North Dakota that are not on the list and whose outages are not included in the state tally. North Dakota Emergency Services spokesman Eric Jensen told The Associated Press that more than 19,000 people were without power Monday “and it could be even more that,” noting that tracking the outages is a complicated process. Rural electric cooperatives provide power to parts of the state hit hardest by the storm, and linemen from elsewhere in North Dakota were traveling to their territories Monday to help restore electricity. Private contractors also were working with co-ops. "One of the great benefits of our electric cooperative system is during disasters of this magnitude, cooperatives lean on other cooperatives to aid in restoring the power," said Josh Kramer, executive vice president and general manager for the North Dakota Association of Rural Electric Cooperatives. Bismarck-based Capital Electric Cooperative, for one, sent linemen west to help with damage in McLean Electric Co-op's territory, Capital Electric spokesperson Wes Engbrecht said. Bakken blasted The outages hit much of the Bakken oil patch, causing the phone of North Dakota Pipeline Authority Director Justin Kringstad to ring off the hook Monday as energy companies called in to report on how the storm had impacted their operations. Kringstad estimated that the state's daily oil output fell by as much as 60% relative to the start of April, due to a loss of electricity across the region and snowy roads making it impossible for trucks to reach energy infrastructure. North Dakota recently had been producing 1.1 million barrels of oil per day, a figure that he believed had already fallen 25% a week and a half earlier when another blizzard hit the state.
Burgum seeking federal help to deal with damaging storms (AP) — Gov. Doug Burgum plans to ask for federal help in dealing with damaging floods and a severe winter storm that left thousands without electricity. As a precursor to a presidential disaster declaration request, Burgum has issued a statewide emergency in the aftermath of a spring storm last weekend that brought freezing rain that developed into blizzard conditions. Hundreds of power poles were snapped and roads became impassable preventing utility crews from reaching some areas to restore power. Burgum traveled to Crosby, in far northwestern North Dakota, to meet with residents and ranchers and survey infrastructure damage. He said the state can help the area recover from widespread power outages. Jerry King, general manager of Burke-Divide Electric Cooperative, estimated damage to the co-op’s system at $10 million to $20 million, with more than 1,000 utility poles on the ground and 14 miles of transmission lines damaged. “We’re in an emergency restoration phase right now, which is about getting lights on to the homes,” said King, who also serves on the Crosby City Council. In eastern North Dakota, heavy rains and snowmelt caused flooding in fields and inundated rural roads and state highways. The emergency declaration direct states agencies to provide response resources and capabilities and makes North Dakota National Guard resources available if needed to support local and tribal governments. The governor also has declared a disaster for areas impacted by record snowfall during the historic blizzard April 12-14 based on local costs for snow removal. Burgum plans to request presidential disaster declarations for both events to unlock federal assistance to help pay for snow removal and infrastructure repairs. While snow removal costs typically aren’t eligible for presidential disaster declaration assistance, exceptions may be granted for a historic storm if snow removal costs exceed the state’s infrastructure damage threshold for receiving a presidential declaration. In North Dakota, that threshold is approximately $1.3 million statewide.
Tremor at Ruapehu volcano now longest and strongest in 20 years, New Zealand - Elevated volcanic unrest continues at New Zealand’s Ruapehu volcano and is dominated by strong volcanic tremor. The Crater Lake (Te Wai ā-moe) temperature remains stable at 37 °C (98.6 °F) and the Volcanic Alert Level remains at Level 2. Elevated volcanic unrest has now been sustained at New Zealand’s Ruapehu volcano for five consecutive weeks. This heightened volcanic unrest is primarily manifested as volcanic tremor, gas output and heat flow into the summit crater lake, GeoNet’s Duty Volcanologist Steven Sherburn noted on April 26, 2022.1 The volcanic tremor level has varied during the last week but remains elevated overall, Sherburn said, adding that this tremor episode now represents the combined longest-strongest period of tremor recorded over the past 20 years. The Crater Lake (Te Wai ā-moe) temperature has remained around 37 °C / 98.6 °F (range 36 – 38 °C / 96.8 – 100.4 °F) over the past three weeks. “While the temperature has not increased, our modeling requires that a substantial amount of heat (about 200-300 MW) is still needed to sustain this high lake temperature,” Sherburn said. The laboratory analyses of a lake sample collected on April 15 show no changes in Crater Lake water chemistry since March 31. The static lake temperature and lack of chemical response indicate processes at shallow depth below the Crater Lake are not being reflected in the lake conditions. “We did not observe an increase in magnesium concentration that would have pointed at some potential magma-water interaction below the surface. We will keep sampling the crater lake regularly to monitor any changes in the water chemistry.” The sustained nature of the volcanic unrest, coupled with the strong volcanic tremor signals, elevated gas output and hot lake remain indicative of processes being driven by molten rock (magma) interacting with the geothermal system within the volcano at shallow depth (0.5 – 2 km / 0.31 – 1.2 miles). The most likely outcome of this unrest episode within the next four weeks is still that no eruptive activity occurs, as no eruptions have followed unrest in the past 15 years, Sherburn said.
Intense explosive eruptions at Anak Krakatau, Alert Level raised to 3, Indonesia - Activity at Indonesia’s Anak Krakatau volcano increased over the past 10 days, forcing authorities to raise the alert level from Level 2 to 3 on April 24, 2022. The volcano has erupted at least 21 times in recent weeks but today’s eruption was the largest yet. Seismicity at the volcano increased sharply on April 5, followed by notable deformation starting on April 18 and even more pronounced since April 22. The volcano is in a continuous eruptive period with changes from predominantly ash-dominant eruption to strombolian type, producing incandescent lava on April 17. Lava flow was observed entering the sea at around 12:19 LT on April 23.1 The eruption on April 24 took place at 05:00 UTC, ejecting ash up to 3.1 km (10 100 feet) above sea level, according to the Anak Krakatau Volcano Observatory. The Darwin VAAC estimated volcanic ash cloud top at 6 km (20 000 feet) a.s.l. at 13:40 UTC. On April 23, the center raised the Aviation Color Code for the volcano from Orange to Red. “We are still recording continuous eruptions with thick clouds towering at between 500 to 3 000 m (1 640 to 9 800 feet) from the peak,” Deny Mardiono of Indonesia’s Geological Agency told AFP on April 24. Anak Krakatau has erupted at least 21 times in recent weeks but Sunday’s eruption was the largest yet, Mardiono said.
Major X1.1 solar flare erupts from the Sun’s west limb - A major solar flare measuring X1.1 erupted from the Sun’s west limb at 13:47 UTC on April 30, 2022. The event started at 13:37 UTC and ended at 13:52. A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 071 km/s was registered at 13:45 UTC. Type II emissions typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event. The source is departing region 2994, located on the west limb, so Earth-directed CME is not expected. Before the aforementioned X1.1 solar flare, Region 2994 produced 8 C-class flares today as well as 3 M-class — M2.6 at 05:01 UTC, M1.4 at 05:34 UTC and M4.8 at 09:58 UTC. The M4.8 was also associated with a Type II Radio Emission. The M1.2 solar flare that erupted from Region 2996 at 07:30 UTC on April 29 was reanalyzed with a potential glancing blow at Earth on May 2.1 The flare was associated with multiple radio signatures from 25 to 15 400 MHz including a Tenflare of 230 sfu as well as a CME off the NE limb at 07:36 UTC The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1-Minor storm levels over the past 24 hours due to CH HSS combined with possible weak transient effects. A quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field is expected through the rest of April 30 due to persistent HSS/CME effects. Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals, are possible on May 1 and 2 due to potential CME effects.
Asteroid 2022 HB1 to fly past Earth at 0.5 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 HB1 will fly past Earth at a distance of 0.52 LD / 0.00134 AU (200 460 km / 124 560 miles) at 21:52 UTC (± 00:37) on April 26, 2022. This is the 52nd known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year. 2022 HB1 was first observed at Mt. Lemmon Survey, Arizona on April 24, two days before its close approach. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 9 and 20 m (29 – 65 feet).
Webster Co Supervisors speak up against eminent domain for carbon pipeline — The Webster County Board of Supervisors has voted unanimously to ask the Iowa Utilities Board to no allow the use of Public Domain for a carbon pipeline. “At the last Board of Supervisors meeting we had some people come express their interest in us signing a letter asking the Iowa Utility Board not to give eminent domain to a private company,” said Mark Campbell, Chair of the Webster County Board of Supervisors, “We support any growth and Iowa and Webster County when it comes to industries and other companies, however when a private pipeline wants to use eminent domain to go across somebody’s property they should work with that property owner to figure out a way to make it work for everybody.” Webster County joins more than 20 counties which have already made a request to the Iowa Utilities Board. “I’ve no tilled my farm for over 10 years I said it takes a long time to build up that soil structure,” said Allen Hayek, who has farmed with his family in the area over 60 years, “They’re they’re just going to literally tear it up in one year and it’ll take me another 10 years to build it back up again.” Hayek’s son Austin is taking over the family farm, as his Dad will move into retirement. “When I look at the future sustainability of our farm once we tear that up and I have to change my farming practice that’s it’s incurred expenses on me it’s it’s trying to get our soil quality back,“ said Austin, “I’m trying to work a job, I’m trying to raise five kids, I’ve got a wife and I want to make this farm sustainable for the future.”
Proposed CO2 pipeline prompts big turnout, many questions at Farm Bureau event - So many central North Dakota landowners packed into a hotel event room in Bismarck this week that some had to peer in from the hallway to hear discussion over a carbon dioxide pipeline slated to pick up emissions from ethanol plants across the Upper Midwest. The crowded room was a sign of growing interest, confusion and concern over Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed Midwest Carbon Express. The pipeline is intended to pick up climate-warming carbon dioxide from more than 30 ethanol plants and other facilities across several states. It would end in North Dakota, where the emissions would be injected deep underground into rocks below Oliver and Mercer counties. North Dakota Farm Bureau hosted the event Monday night, inviting several attorneys who have represented landowners on other energy issues to answer questions from those in attendance. “I have had the opportunity to lead the organization for 6 ½ years now,” Farm Bureau President Daryl Lies said. “In that 6 ½ years, I have not had another single issue that I have received more messages, more phone calls, more emails about than this issue. That’s saying a lot.” Lies said the Farm Bureau does not intend to debate whether the pipeline and carbon capture are good ideas, but it seeks to provide landowners with information to protect their property rights. He anticipates the organization will further address the project when the proposal reaches the North Dakota Public Service Commission, which is made up of three regulators who permit pipelines and other energy projects. Summit has not yet filed an application with the PSC. After it does so, the commissioners would hold a hearing at which members of the public could testify. For large pipelines, the PSC in the past has held multiple hearings in communities along the project route.
Proponents Say Storing Captured Carbon Underground Is Safe, But States Are Transferring Long-Term Liability for Such Projects to the Public - As states rush to enact rules and regulations for the underground storage of carbon dioxide, a key question is who will hold long-term responsibility for projects that could require monitoring for decades.The question is increasingly important, as a host of companies have proposed dozens of projects over the last two years that would pull climate-warming emissions from the smokestacks of ethanol plants, fertilizer factories and fossil-fueled power plants. If the projects move forward, they’ll need to pump millions of tons of captured carbon dioxide deep underground into depleted oil fields or saline aquifers, where the gas would need to be stored permanently.The energy industry and others insist the practice is safe, but nonetheless some companies, including ExxonMobil and BP, have been seeking protections from long-term liability. And increasingly, state lawmakers are responding by putting governments, rather than industry, on the hook.At least four states have passed laws over the last year that allow companies to transfer responsibility for carbon storage projects to state governments after the operations are shut down. At least three other states have similar statutes on the books, enacted years earlier.Now, with the federal government poised to spend billions of dollars to jump start a carbon capture and storage industry, some environmental advocates warn these states are setting a dangerous precedent.“Statutes that relieve operators of liability without due regard to existing legal principles create an incentive for sloppy management, leaks and public opposition,” said Scott Anderson, senior director of energy transition at the Environmental Defense Fund.Poorly managed projects could increase the risk of carbon dioxide leaking through natural fissures or old wells and contaminating groundwater or escaping into the atmosphere, Anderson said.He singled out a law enacted this year in Wyoming, saying it reduces the incentives for companies to act responsibly. Anderson’s organization is also studying laws passed in several other states over the last year, he said, including Nebraska and Indiana. West Virginia also passed a law this year allowing for liability transfer.While the laws differ, each generally directs the state to assume at least certain responsibilities for carbon sequestration projects once they have been shut down and an operator can demonstrate the carbon has been stored safely for a period of time, generally at least 10 years. In some cases, such as Wyoming, the state would take on full ownership and liability. Louisiana, Montana and North Dakota have had liability transfer laws on the books for years.The proposals appear to be dividing companies involved in carbon storage, people familiar with the bills said. Some of the legislation has drawn support from oil companies, including BP in Indiana and Denbury Inc. in Wyoming. While there is no evidence that ExxonMobil, which calls itself a leader in carbon capture and storage, has supported any of the bills, the company has separately identified liability as an important concern for carbon storage.
Hearing set for NJ power plant in polluted neighborhood - (AP) — Residents of a pollution-choked neighborhood in New Jersey’s largest city said Tuesday they are tired of their community being used as a dumping ground for projects that foul their air yet exclude them from the economic benefits of industry. In an online public hearing, residents of Newark’s Ironbound section denounced a plan by a sewage treatment facility to build a backup gas-fired power plant that is designed to keep the treatment plant operating when the power goes out. The Passaic Valley Sewerage Commission is seeking a state environmental permit to build the largest portion of the $180 million backup facility. The sewage treatment plant is the fifth-largest in the nation, and accepts liquid waste shipped from communities ranging from Maine to Virginia. It is the largest single-site user of electricity in New Jersey. But it has become a cause célèbre among community activists — and a key test of an environmental justice law that New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy signed in 2020. The law is designed to prevent communities already overburdened with pollution from having to accept additional contamination sources. “I have a hard time breathing on a lot of days, and a lot of it comes from your plant,” said Lenny Thomas, who lives in the Ironbound, which got its nickname from the railroad tracks that surround it on three sides. “This has been going on for decades. It’s not just, it’s not right, and it’s not fair.” The governor intervened in January and told the authority to pause the plan. His office says Murphy, a Democrat, remains committed to making sure communities do not suffer disproportionately from pollution sources. The law still has not taken full effect, and state officials are writing regulations concerning the law. Similar battles are taking place around the country, particularly in minority communities that are already dealing with pollution and are trying to avoid being burdened with additional sources of it. The commission says it is complying with the intent of the environmental justice law. During Tuesday’s hearing, commission officials said they plan to reduce other sources of pollution at the plant by upgrading or removing some equipment, with the net effect that the plant as a whole will emit less pollution into the air than it currently does. The commission “has given assurances that this time will be different,” said Keith Voos, an official with the New Jersey conference of the NAACP, the nation’s oldest civil rights organization. “The NAACP is having none of that. This issue is a pre-eminent environmental justice question,” he said. Maria Lopez of the Ironbound Community Corporation said the cumulative effects of decades of industrial pollution in her neighborhood have been devastating. “We have seen that Black and brown people will die and are dying,” she said. “We’re fighting for our lives.”
Biden blocks sales of inefficient lightbulbs, reversing Trump-era policy -The Biden administration on Tuesday announced new energy efficiency regulations that will phase out old-fashioned incandescent lightbulbs, a move that will drive down electricity use and curb greenhouse gas emissions from the country's power sector.The Energy Department's rules, which reverse a Trump administration policy, will ban the sale of light bulbs that produce less than 45 lumens per watt and raise energy efficiency standards for various types of general service lamps.The new standards will save consumers $3 billion each year in utility costs, the department said. The rules could also prevent 222 million tons of planet-warming carbon pollution from being emitted over the next 30 years. That's about as much as 48 million vehicles emit in a year.Incandescent bulbs, which are the widely recognized glass orbs with glowing wire centers, have been increasingly replaced with more energy-efficient alternatives in recent years. More climate-friendly alternatives include LED bulbs, which look like the traditional pear-shaped incandescent bulbs, but use one-fifth the energy.The administration's new rules will eventually phase out most incandescent and halogen bulbs on the market."By raising energy efficiency standards for lightbulbs, we're putting $3 billion back in the pockets of American consumers and substantially reducing domestic carbon e missions," Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm said in a statement.
Trump fumes about dishwashers at Ohio rally and claims Americans are unable to use the bathroom properly due to low water pressure - Former President Donald Trump dedicated a portion of his rambling 90-minute speech at a rally in Delaware, Ohio, to dishwashers, washing machines, and bathrooms.The former president has long taken issue with America's water pressure and claimed that Americans could not properly wash their dishes or use the bathroom."In the dishwashers as an example, they had a little problem. What was the problem? They didn't give you any water. And it was so little water that you couldn't wash the dishes. So what did people do? They kept pressing. Do it again, do it again, do it again. So by the time you do it ten times, the dishes are finally there," Trump said, during his rally speech on Saturday.He boasted that he introduced a regulation to let Americans "have all the damn water you want for your dishes."
Why hydrogen is an 'extraordinary opportunity' for Pennsylvania - One of the Wolf administration's top energy officials said so-called blue hydrogen and carbon-capture storage presents a big opportunity to not only decarbonize heavy industry like steelmaking in Pennsylvania but also use as a feedstock the massive amounts of natural gas that lies in the Marcellus and Utica Shales. Ramping up the production and use of hydrogen, along with advances in carbon capture storage, present "a potentially extraordinary opportunity for Pennsylvania industry moving forward," said Adam Walters, senior energy advisor with the Pennsylvania Office of Energy. The use of hydrogen at a large scale has been getting a lot of attention lately due to its implication for zero-carbon energy, transportation and industrial sectors. Walters spoke Wednesday at a program sponsored by Washington & Jefferson College's Center for Energy Policy and Management. The Biden administration's 2021 infrastructure law sets out $8 billion in funding for four hydrogen and carbon capture storage hubs in the U.S., and various groups and companies are working to bring one of those hubs here. That would especially help the natural gas industry, upon which blue hydrogen production is based, as well as the steel and chemical industries in their efforts to become net-zero. "Clean hydrogen has the opportunity to reduce emissions in multiple sectors," Walters said. Pennsylvania is working with the Team Pennsylvania Foundation on a multipronged approach for massive hydrogen and carbon storage, and recently responded to a U.S. Department of Energy request for information and highlighted Pennsylvania's natural gas and industrial production. "We are encouraging the Department of Energy to view proximity to resources and importantly, proximity to a diverse end use market as key factors," Walters said. The region has all sectors mentioned in the infrastructure law in abundance. "That really makes Pennsylvania as a state a compelling place for DOE to consider an investment," Walters said. But as last week's H2 Summit pointed out over the course of a five-hour conference dedicated to western Pennsylvania's potential as a hydrogen and carbon capture hub, it's easier said than done. It would, participants at H2 said, take a massive amount of investment of both government and private-sector funds to make a competitive and scalable hydrogen/carbon capture hub. And, said more than one participant, smaller projects that will show how hydrogen works now in the market. .
They're Paneling Paradise to Put Up Solar -- a Lot --The pathway to a green future involves taking millions of acres of pristine wilderness and turning them into fields of windmills and hot expanses of glistening panels. The Biden administration’s goal of supplying 40% of the nation’s energy from the sun by 2035 means covering millions of acres of forest and desert habitat with vast solar panel installations fenced off like prisons. It would require 8,800 square miles of land, or 5.6 million acres, to generate that power (leaving out small installations on buildings and the like) -- about the size of Rhode Island and Massachusetts combined. But the push to convert that land from pastoral to energy-productive is galvanizing a new environmental movement, one led by citizen groups and small non-profits rather than the monied green interests arrayed against them -- ones ironically accustomed to casting the fossil fuel industry in the role of the ecological heavy. The potential impacts of solar-power installations have flown under the radar while much public resistance has centered on wind farms – which kill an estimated 1.2 million birds per year in the U.S. and are considered loud and unsightly by many who live near their towering turbines. Even as the Biden administration has made limiting the environmental impact of oil and gas a key goal, it has opened large tracts of federal lands to solar development by major corporations including Duke Energy, Exelon and BrightSource Energy. Solar advocates say mitigating climate change requires a switch to carbon-free energy, and utility-scale solar installations are vital to the effort. They contend a looming climate crisis requires the switch to be made quickly, although the effects of widespread solar development are not fully understood. Numerous critics say hold on. They do not oppose a buildout of solar, but argue for more environmentally sensitive placement on brownfields, abandoned military bases, rooftops and other areas, an approach that would cost more than plunking down massive solar installations on pristine lands but do less damage. They contend that mega-solar installations are disrupting fragile ecosystems, including imperiling species of indigenous animals and flora, while ruining tourist destinations and clogging roads. Some also voice concern about the unknown long-term effects of solar power plants, such as how they age, the waste they create and concerns that heat produced by the panels could itself contribute to global warming. But green corporate interests favor the largest and cheapest way to produce solar energy -- and a number of interested parties, including resident groups, say they are getting a pass. Several of the nation’s largest wilderness advocacy groups have board members with ties to corporate solar developers, referred to by watchdogs as Big Solar.
In surprise move, Fla. governor vetoes solar crackdown - Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed a bill yesterday targeting rooftop solar that was backed by the state’s largest electric company and a top political donor, in a move that shocked Florida’s political and energy landscape. The move is a win for the solar industry and deals a blow to Florida Power & Light Co., which holds significant political sway in the Sunshine State. It also is a win for state Democrats, who largely opposed the bill and have had been unsuccessful in getting any meaningful clean energy legislation passed in Florida. “This veto was necessary,” Florida state Sen. Lori Berman, a Democrat from Palm Beach County who vocally opposed the bill, said on Twitter. “For now, Floridians can continue to enjoy energy savings through rooftop solar. Their renewable energy consumption will help solve one of the greatest challenges of our time: climate change.” The bill would have cut the amount of money rooftop solar users could receive for selling excess electricity back to the power grid. In a letter explaining his decision, DeSantis said that Florida doesn’t need to add to customers’ financial woes while the nation copes with increased costs for goods. “Given that the United States is experiencing its worst inflation in 40 years and that consumers have seen steep increases in the price of gas and groceries, as well as escalating bills, the state of Florida should not contribute to the financial crunch that our citizens are experiencing,” he wrote. It is highly unusual for a Republican governor to veto a bill from a GOP-controlled Legislature, much less one that was the brainchild of the utility known as FPL, owned by Florida-based renewable energy giant NextEra Energy Inc. The measure was the latest salvo between Florida’s politically powerful electric companies and renewable energy supporters, who have been at odds for years over customer-owned solar. A December story from the Miami Herald written in partnership with Floodlight revealed correspondence between FPL’s lobbyist and the bill’s sponsor, Republican state Sen. Jennifer Bradley, as well as political donations from FPL and its parent company. Debates over what’s known as net metering have played out all over the country, especially as more customers look to separate themselves from the power grid or use more renewable energy. To support its case, FPL tapped a utility industry argument known as cost shifting, saying that customers who don’t have rooftop solar end up subsidizing those who do. FPL argued the current system creates an unfair economic advantage for rooftop solar users, who typically have more disposable income. It also penalizes low-income customers, those who rent or ones who live in multiunit buildings because they are unable to install solar on their roofs, the utility said.
U.S. Solar Industry Threatened by Southeast Asian Tariffs – Bloomberg --On top of an old coal mine in western Pennsylvania, developers were preparing to install the first of 237,000 new solar panels — a living embodiment of the transition away from fossil fuels into clean energy. Just as the Maple Hill solar farm was getting underway, things came to an abrupt halt. The $30 billion U.S. solar industry is being ensared in a trade probe that’s leaving projects like Maple Hill in limbo and threatening to slow down — possibly even derail — the country’s shift to renewable power. The panels crucial to the solar farm in Portage, Pennsylvania, were being made in Thailand. But the threat of tariffs, equal to as much as 239% of the equipment’s value, forced the supplier to halt shipments.
Minnesota attorney general suing Utah-based solar companies over 'deceptive' practices - Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison announced a lawsuit Tuesday against four Utah-based companies, alleging they violated consumer protection laws and used deceitful business practices to push Minnesotans into expensive solar panel contracts without delivering on promised bonuses or tax incentives. The lawsuit against Brio Energy and connected companies, their executives and some lenders they worked with follows complaints from dozens of homeowners who said the salespeople used high-pressure tactics to get them to sign contracts. "These Minnesotans were trying to do the right thing for their families and our state and our environment, and instead they were scammed by unscrupulous companies using deceptive tactics to defraud," Ellison said at a news conference Tuesday. His office estimates more than 400 Minnesotans were targeted by the companies, with contracts totaling millions of dollars. The individual contracts ranged from $20,000 to $55,000 for solar panels. The lawsuit alleges the companies' sales force targeted people through Facebook ads or door-to-door pitches, suggesting they were connected to utility companies and often wearing utility vests to look official. They told some homeowners they were signing documents to get a quote on panels costs and energy savings, but instead they were signing an installation contract. By the time most homeowners realized what they signed, a three-day cancellation window on the contract had expired. The lawsuit alleges the companies threatened homeowners with legal action and thousands of dollars of termination fees when they tried to cancel their contracts.
Interior eyes major increase in renewables on federal land - The Biden administration says it’s set to approve dozens of commercial-scale solar, wind and geothermal power projects capable of producing enough electricity to power millions of homes by the end of 2025.The Interior Department, in a report submitted to Congress that was dated last month but released yesterday, forecasts that it’s on track to approve 48 wind, solar and geothermal energy projects with the capacity to produce an estimated 31,827 megawatts of electricity — enough to power roughly 9.5 million homes — by the end of the fiscal 2025 budget cycle.The vast majority of that clean power — 29,595 MW — will be produced by solar projects, according to the Interior report, which was required by the Energy Act of 2020. That means the Biden administration is well on its way to exceeding the goal in the Energy Act of permitting 25,000 MW of new onshore renewable energy projects by 2025.And it’s moving fast. The report estimates that the Bureau of Land Management will approve projects capable of producing 11,409 MW of electricity by the end of 2023. That amount alone would nearly double the 12,000 MW of electricity from the 35 solar, 36 wind and 48 geothermal power projects that have already been approved on federal lands to date.All of this is due to ongoing efforts to establish renewable energy coordination offices, hire more BLM staff for renewables permitting, and work to ease the permitting process for wind, solar and geothermal projects, Interior says in the report.“The Department of the Interior continues to make significant progress in our efforts to spur a clean energy revolution, strengthen and decarbonize the nation’s economy, and help communities transition to a clean energy future,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement.BLM has over 50 additional solar, wind and geothermal projects “pending early-stage conformance review prior to initiating the environmental and permitting review processes,” the report says.“The demand for renewable energy has never been greater,” Haaland added. “The technological advances, increased interest, cost effectiveness, and tremendous economic potential make these projects a promising path for diversifying our national energy portfolio, while at the same time combatting climate change and investing in communities.” The report to Congress was one of several renewable energy updates Interior announced yesterday that it is taking to boost renewable energy development on federal lands.
The Biden administration undermines its efforts to increase energy supply --Facing worsening energy costs and growing problems with the energy supply chain, the White House has pulled federal levers to provide immediate relief for consumers while diversifying the nation’s cumulative energy portfolio. The methods range from offering awards to issuing waivers to invoking the Defense Production Act. These efforts should be encouraging, particularly for a region like western Pennsylvania positioned to capitalize on these federal investments. Unfortunately, the administration’s simultaneous directive for environmental protection undermines this call to action. The administration would gain from examples where a successful working understanding is already underway — like Pittsburgh. The White House maintains there is no conflict between these two priorities. But despite its urgent top-down messaging, the individual U.S. agencies responsible for the regulating, assessing, and permitting projects continue to stall or cancel the sensible ones. Energy infrastructure is time-and-capital consuming. These projects would take years to come online. Any unnecessary delay in starting means an unnecessary delay in reaching energy independence. Federal authorizations are crucial to the process: a delay during these stages can seriously postpone — or outright prevent — starting the work. Whether siting interstate pipelines, securing wind permits, or extracting feedstock metals for renewable technology, projects are more difficult to complete when the government offices responsible for managing the process are not serving the administration’s main goals. The White House that has yet to reconcile its energy portfolio needs with its Day One conservation agenda, which is unmistakably influencing project approvals across the country.The examples are many. Federal agencies revoked Minnesota’s Twin Mines land permits, a significant source of nickel and cobalt essential to solar and battery production. Approvals for the nation’s largest lithium deposit, another renewable technology critical mineral, also face pressure.Closer to home, the Executive Office may acknowledge Marcellus and Utica shale gas as vital for power generation and U.S. LNG exports to assist European allies. But the approvals for pipelines to supply markets are doubtful at best.Even renewable energy projects are affected. For example, PJM, the regional transmission organization managing the power grid across 13 states, issued a moratorium on proposal approvals that would add solar power due to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) review.If the White House continues to punt on enabling domestic options, these activities will simply be done elsewhere. U.S. consumers will continue to be exposed to supply chain unreliability, particularly by relying on foreign sources — notably those uninterested in the aligned governance and labor standards and environmental protections. The environmental impact may shift to another country, but is still very real, and potentially more damaging.
Batteries are getting cheap. So why aren't electric vehicles? - If the world has learned one thing from the adoption of wind, solar, and other green technologies over the past two decades, it’s this: Clean energy tends to get cheap as technology improves. Since 2010, the cost of utility-scale solar power has declined by 82 percent; onshore wind has gone down by 39 percent. In many markets around the world, renewable energy is now cheaper than coal. The price of lithium-ion batteries has also plummeted: In 2011, a lithium-ion battery cost $946 per kilowatt-hour. Last year, it cost only $132. Electric cars have long been expected to follow the same trajectory. But even as batteries have gotten cheaper, the cost of purchasing a new electric car in the United States has skyrocketed. According to data from Cox Automotive, an automotive services firm, in 2015 the average price paid for a new electric car was $35,880 — not much higher than the industry average of $33,543. By last December, however, the average price of an EV had ballooned to $63,821, an almost 80 percent increase — while the average cost of a gas car was around $47,000. For almost a decade, analysts of electric vehicles have whispered, analyzed, and projected a magic crossover point for EVs — “price parity,” or when electric cars will cost the same amount to produce as traditional, gas-powered cars. After that, if battery prices continue to fall, EVs would eventually cost even less than traditional cars. Analysts have long estimated that price parity would be reached when batteries cost less than $100 per kilowatt-hour. But even as battery prices inch toward that level, the magic crossover point seems further and further away. “Battery prices are falling and that’s great,” . “But when we look at the average starting price of a gas car and an electric car — they’re not getting closer. They’re diverging.” For years, demand for electric cars grew steadily; but interest in EVs increased rapidly over the last few months, as gas prices rose and car companies rolled out new models. In the two-week period following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March, online searches for new and used EVs nearly doubled. And by some metrics, EVs are already cheaper than gas-powered cars. According to an analysis by Consumer Reports, many electric cars turn out to be cheaper than gas-guzzling cars over the entire lifetime of the vehicle; after all, electric cars cost significantly less to “fill up” than gas cars and, with fewer moving parts, they also cost less to maintain.
Musk: Metal shortages threatening Tesla's growth - Even as it brings two huge new factories online, Tesla Inc.’s existing plants are running below capacity because of supply shortages that could hobble growth of electric vehicles for a long time to come, the company said yesterday. On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk and other Tesla executives returned again and again to how supply shortages, particularly of metals, have become the biggest brake on growth. Musk said prices for some parts have increased by 20 or 30 percent in the last year. “That’s why we’ve raised our prices,” he said. Tesla’s Model 3, envisioned as an affordable EV, has seen its price rise more than 30 percent over the last three years. A particular problem is lithium, the soft white metal that gives the lithium-ion battery its name. Musk said that some suppliers of raw lithium are charging a 90 percent premium on their costs. The availability and price of battery metals are a focus of intense interest as every global automaker is simultaneously demanding more material to power future lineups of EVs. The urgency of the issue moved the Biden administration last month to invoke the Defense Production Act, a legal relic of the Cold War, to spur industry to mine and refine metals. “It seems we’ve found a counterbalance to the cost-of-oil concerns that dogged traditional automakers for the past 50 years,” said Karl Brauer, an auto analyst, in response to Tesla’s update. “Now it’s the cost of lithium, palladium and nickel, which is proving as much, or more, volatile than oil.” “Lithium margins right now are practically software margins,” Musk said, referring to how software generates enormous profits though the price of making it is far less. Musk offered little optimism that the metals supply crunch will ease, despite the fact that the company has long relationships with metal suppliers and recently has contracted for far more. ”Those long-term contracts will run out, and then we will eventually see significant cost increases,” he said. Asked by an analyst whether the problem will limit adoption not just of Teslas but of all electric vehicles, Musk responded, “Absolutely.”
16 States, Environmental Groups Sue U.S. Postal Service Over Climate-Polluting Mail Trucks - Sixteen states, the District of Columbia, the United Auto Workers (UAW) labor union and environmental groups Earthjustice — acting on behalf of the Sierra Club, Center for Biological Diversity and Kansas-based nonprofit CleanAirNow — and the Natural Resources Defense Council have filed three lawsuits in two different federal courts claiming that the U.S. Postal Service violated the law when it ordered 165,000 gas-powered mail delivery trucks instead of electric-powered trucks. The lawsuits also named Postmaster General Louis DeJoy as a defendant, Reuters reported.The environmental groups said that DeJoy’s order of gas-powered mail trucks from OshKosh Defense could get in the way of the country’s aims to fight climate change, while the UAW said that, because it is expected that the new trucks are to be built in factories that are nonunion, it breaches President Joe Biden’s promise to further environmental policies that will cultivate union jobs, reported The New York Times.The states suing are California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine and North Carolina.“Louis DeJoy’s gas-guzzling fleet guarantees decades of pollution with every postcard and package,” said attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity Scott Hochberg, as The Guardian reported.Earlier this year, President Biden signed an executive order to electrify the Postal Service’s delivery vehicle fleet, which DeJoy disregarded by ordering mostly gas-powered trucks, reported The New York Times. As an independent agency, the U.S. Postal Service, which has a fleet of more than 231,000 vehicles, does not have to heed the climate rules set by the administration.The environmental groups, the UAW and the Democratic states’ attorneys general that filed the lawsuit also claim that the order by DeJoy was illegal because it violated the 1970 National Environmental Policy Act by failing to take into account the environmental impacts of the purchase of the polluting vehicles.Senior attorney on Earthjustice’s Right to Zero campaign Adrian Martinez said that the environmental review process “was so rickety and riddled with error that it failed to meet the basic standards of the National Environmental Policy Act,” The Guardian reported.“The crux of this case is that the Postal Service performed its [environmental] analysis too late, and even the analysis it did prepare was incomplete, misleading, and biased against cleaner vehicles,” Martinez wrote in his complaint, as reported by The Washington Post.
Iowa lawmakers send ethanol bill to governor's desk - Gov. Kim Reynolds applauded legislation that passed both the Iowa House and Senate on Tuesday to require most Iowa gas stations to sell higher ethanol blends.The bill, House File 2128, received bipartisan support in both chambers, passing 42-3 in the Senate and 78-13 in the House. Reynolds is expected to sign it into law.She told reporters Tuesday morning that the bill would “sustain and grow” the ethanol industry while helping consumers. “As we’re seeing skyrocketing gas prices – check the price at the pump – it’s a good deal, and it’s environmentally friendly, so it checks about every box that we’re looking for,” Reynolds said.The bill requires most Iowa gas stations to begin offering 15% ethanol blended fuel (E15) in 2026. The final version of the proposal includes a waiver for Iowa’s smallest gas stations, and state grants to help upgrade infrastructure to support E15. As fueling stations expand and install new tanks, those have to be E15-compatible.“I think everyone in this chamber has stopped at the gas station (in) the last two or three days… and we’ve all made a choice when we put that card in the machine and we pick which button to push,” Sen. Dan Zumbach, R-Ryan, said. “And now we’ll have another choice — and a choice that will make Iowa grow.”Some Senate Democrats raised concerns about the legislation, arguing it would be a “mandate” and may clash with federal law. House Democrats did not debate the proposal on the floor.
Corn and Soybeans Near Record Prices, Push Food Costs Higher - Corn and soybeans prices have risen nearly to records, signaling higher food inflation to come. Global food prices had already reached records when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and jeopardized big slices of the world's grain and oilseed supplies. Poor harvests in South America, inclement planting weather in the U.S. and rising biofuel demand threaten to stretch inventories even thinner and push prices higher.
Storms strain Ohio’s electric grid, and climate change could make it worse - Major weather events accounted for more than a third of the time Ohio customers of regulated electric utilities went without power last year, according to an Energy News Network review of data filed with state regulators. Utility reports filed at the end of March listed 16 calendar days in 2021 with major outage events linked to wind or thunderstorms. All told, more than 900,000 Ohio utility customers lost power during major weather-related outages last year. Companies say they’re taking steps to prevent outages. Yet some critics question whether utilities are doing enough to prepare the state’s power grid for a warmer and wetter world. It’s unclear how climate change will affect the frequency or intensity of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. However, climate experts predict Ohio will see more days with conditions that often set the stage for storms. Utilities file outage reports each year so regulators can judge whether utilities aremeeting reliability standards. State regulators can penalize utilities if outages exceed certain limits. Outages that count toward companies’ performance result from things like equipment failure and damage to infrastructure due to animals, falling tree branches, traffic accidents and so on. Outages from less extensive weather interruptions are also included. Together, those outages generally make up the bulk of electric service interruptions. When calculating utilities’ performance, the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio lets companies exclude major outage events. By definition, major outage events are outliers that last longer and don’t reflect the utilities’ normal performance. Major weather-related outages account for most long-duration events, sometimes requiring several days to restore power for all customers. On Dec. 11, for example, the state was blasted with wind gusts over 50 mph and at least one tornado, leaving more than a quarter-million customers without power. Energy News Network added up the customer minutes of service interruptions for major weather-related events noted on 2021 filings by AEP Ohio, AES Ohio, Duke Energy Ohio and FirstEnergy and compared the result to the total customer minutes of service interruptions for all four companies, before any exclusions. Major weather-related outages accounted for roughly 37% of the total. “For some people, it’s life and death.”
JobsOhio, SARTA study says Ohio is poised to lead hydrogen economy, is a prime location for Clean Hydrogen Hub -Developing a Hydrogen Economy in Ohio: Challenges and Opportunities, a comprehensive study released today by JobsOhio and the Stark Area Regional Transit Authority (SARTA), asserts that Ohio is poised to become a leader in the clean hydrogen-fueled, zero-emission economy of the 21st Century. The report also validates Ohio as a prime location for a Clean Hydrogen Hub, as defined by the United States Department of Energy (DOE). The Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) appropriated $10 billion to DOE for the creation of at least four Clean Hydrogen Hubs across the United States.The highly detailed, data-driven study identifies:
- Factors that give Ohio an advantage in developing and deploying hydrogen technology
- Existing and potential hydrogen end-users
- Opportunities for growth in hydrogen-based markets: hydrogen-burning power plants, hydrogen fuel cell electric-powered vehicles, etc.
- Potential challenges that may impede the expansion of hydrogen-based markets
The report states that “conservative projections indicate that Ohio will be a major market for hydrogen markets and generation.” It is clear that over the coming decades, Ohio will have to adopt an “all of the above” strategy for sourcing hydrogen to meet its market demand - embracing natural gas, biomass, and electrolysis as sources.J.P. Nauseef, President and CEO, JobsOhio, said his organization commissioned this study before the IIJA was passed and that JobsOhio is committed to growing the hydrogen economy in Ohio, especially for industrial use. “We are interested in developing a better understanding of the opportunities this presents for the State,” he said. “This study has provided us some insight into where opportunities will arise and how Ohio can lead development.”“The report clearly shows that hydrogen has the potential to fuel economic growth, innovation, and job creation in the state while significantly reducing carbon emissions,” SARTA CEO Kirt Conrad said. “The one key question left on the table: will state government and the private sector make the investment necessary to unleash that potential?” “The study provides clear and convincing evidence that Ohio not only meets but exceeds the criteria established for the hubs in the IIJA,” Mr. Nauseef continued. “Ohio has feedstock and end-use diversity, one of the nation’s largest supplies of natural gas, and the geology to accommodate hydrogen storage and carbon sequestration. Ohio is also geographically positioned in an area where critical processing, storage, and distribution infrastructure will be developed.”
DOE unveils $500M loan for massive 'clean hydrogen' project - The Energy Department’s loan office announced yesterday that it intends to issue a half-billion-dollar guarantee to what it called a “first-of-its-kind” hydrogen project. The $504 million for a Utah project is the third loan guarantee from the Biden administration, which has struggled to get its climate priorities through Congress but has tens of billions in loan authority to back innovative clean energy projects at the Department of Energy. It is also the second award for a “clean hydrogen” project, underscoring the technology’s centrality to the administration’s climate plans and renewing questions about local emissions tied to renewable hydrogen. The loan guarantee was described by DOE as a conditional commitment, meaning final sign-off would hinge on unspecified conditions. If finalized, it would support development of the Advanced Clean Energy Storage (ACES) project in Delta, Utah, where a team of developers plan to produce hydrogen using excess renewable electricity and store it in two new underground salt caverns. The hydrogen would then be sold for use in transportation, heavy industry and refineries, as well as at an Intermountain Power Agency power plant in Utah which plans to ditch coal by 2025 in favor of a 70 percent-30 percent mix of natural gas and hydrogen. By 2045, the plant would transition to 100 percent hydrogen, under the plan. The DOE funds would be awarded to Mitsubishi Power Americas Inc. and salt dome developer Magnum Development LLC, along with private equity firm Haddington Ventures LLC. The project will also involve work from entities Black & Veatch, NAES Corp., WSP Global Inc. and the Utah School and Institutional Trust Lands Administration. In a blog post announcing the conditional guarantee, DOE Loan Programs Office Director Jigar Shah said the project would include “one of the largest deployments in the world” of electrolyzers, which can use wind and solar power to split hydrogen from water molecules, in a zero-emissions process. About 100 metric tons of renewable hydrogen could eventually be produced and stored at the Advanced Clean Energy Storage site, according to the developers, ranking it among the biggest planned production sites of renewable hydrogen in the United States.
A new kind of 'mining' has arrived in the Ohio Valley. What will crypto mean for the region? Open the door of Blockware Mining’s data center in Paducah, Kentucky, and you’re met by a wall of sound. More than 5,000 machines are whirring away as they solve complex math problems, while large industrial fans keep them cool. The expansive warehouse stretches a little more than a football field. “You don’t truly get an appreciation for the scale unless you walk it or actually be a part of building it,” said Jeremy Witten, executive vice president of engineering for the relatively new company. As of mid-April, the warehouse was still an active construction site. More fans were being added by contractors, outdoor light shining through where gray metal siding hadn’t been added yet. Workers were bringing even more machines to eventually plug in with the rest. Witten and his colleagues find themselves answering a lot of questions about what exactly these machines are up to in this western Kentucky industrial park. Even curious contractors building the warehouse are still learning what cryptocurrency “mining” is. It can’t be seen with the naked eye, but it sure makes a lot of noise, and investors hope, money. With the rise in popularity of cryptocurrencies across the globe including Bitcoin, virtual currencies have needed a way to ensure online exchanges are secure and safe between parties. Servers like the ones at Blockware Mining provide that service by solving complex math problems that help verify transactions, and if their machines are the first to solve new problems, they’re rewarded with payment of some of the currency they’re providing security for – in this case, Bitcoin. That can mean a lot of money for cryptocurrency miners, with each Bitcoin worth a little more than $40,000 as of recently. For Blockware Mining, the investment is very real. By 2023, the cryptocurrency mining facility plans to add another warehouse and have over 10,000 machines, which the company estimates will cost about $100 million alone. But Blockware Mining isn’t alone in Kentucky. As the technology takes off, a cryptocurrency mining boom is taking place in the state that’s known for mining coal. It’s a burgeoning industry that investors see as a cutting-edge economic opportunity. But critics say it’s compounding the world’s preeminent crisis – climate change. Greater Paducah Economic Development President Bruce Wilcox says after Blockware Mining announced its move, the floodgates opened with the interest from other cryptocurrency mining ventures wanting to move into the region from across the world. “We've had interest from New York to California, Canada,” Wilcox said in a recent interview, about five minutes before his office phone ringed again with yet another interested cryptocurrency company. “A week ago, Monday, I was meeting with a group from India, China and Cambodia.” A big reason they want to move there, according to Wilcox: cheap power. Kentucky has a lower cost of electricity compared to other states, and cryptocurrency mining tends to use substantial amounts of power. Blockware Mining, for example, eventually wants to power 100 megawatts of electricity to its site, an amount that could power tens of thousands of homes. For comparison, the peak electricity consumption of Paducah – population 27,137 – was around 128 megawatts last year.
After months of delay, NY still reviewing 4,000 public comments for Finger Lakes power plant owned by Bitcoin miners - Seneca Lake residents such as Yvonne Taylor are preparing for tourism season this month by hauling out the docks and patio furniture, but a cloud is looming over her joy at the start of sunny, busy days. Taylor and other local business owners are waiting anxiously for Gov. Kathy Hochul and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) to deliver a decision on whether they will deny or approve the air permit for Greenidge Generation, a natural gas-fired power plant that makes more than $100 million a year mining Bitcoin. That decision has been delayed more than three months, while the original permits expired nearly seven months ago. One of the major reasons for the wait, according to the DEC, is the nearly 4,000 public comments submitted on November 19th, 2021. At a Monday morning press conference, two Cornell University researchers disclosed that they had reviewed all those comments in less than a week — and found that 98.8% were strongly opposed to renewal of a for-profit power plant running 24/7 with very little public use. Fewer than than 1% of commenters supported the project, contrary to earlier claims Greenidge made to Gothamist in February that they had full community support, and those opposed were a loud and very small minority. “This delay is not genuinely being caused by the number of comments in need of review,” said Taylor, co-founder of the local environmental advocacy nonprofit Seneca Lake Guardian, which hosted the press conference. “We hope the governor will get off her you-know-what, and make a decision on this before the primary and prove that she is working for the people of New York State and not this wealthy crypto bro company.”
Smell gas? Getting it fixed may depend on race and income - Auditors noticed a pattern three years ago as Massachusetts utility companies replaced leak-prone gas pipes in the wake of a natural gas explosion. Crews seemed to be replacing more pipe in suburban areas, instead of in cities where the risk was greater. There are potential reasons for that. Suburbanites might be more likely to complain about leaks. It’s cheaper and easier to cut through suburban lawns than city streets. But the effect of that tendency, new research shows, is that minorities and people with low incomes are exposed to the dangers of gas leaks far more than white, richer people. “You have people being treated differently,” said Marcos Luna, a geography professor at Salem State University, who studied the issue after fielding questions from community advocates. “Exposure and wait times are overwhelmingly disparate along the lines of race and income.” Luna specializes in applying geospatial technology to issues of environmental justice — the concept that society should cease burdening disadvantaged communities with disproportionate amounts of pollution. He teamed up with Dominic Nicholas of Home Energy Efficiency Team (HEET), a nonprofit that tracks the integrity of the gas distribution system, to analyze Massachusetts’ uniquely detailed data on gas leaks. Their first-of-its-kind analysis, published this year in the journal Energy Policy, found that Asian people and Black people experience the longest repair times for gas leaks, as do renters. For the most dangerous leaks, low-income people and those with less education face longer repair times than the general population. Luna and Nicholas, who studies methane leaks as a director at HEET, didn’t reach conclusions about the reasons for the disparity and what it means for safety. But they say their findings should prompt policymakers and utilities to factor environmental justice into their oversight and planning. They are also calling for more states and the federal government to collect more data about utility company leaks. “Without it, we can’t hold utilities accountable,” Nicholas said.
Colorado’s largest coal-fired power plant could close four years earlier than proposed, documents show - The newest generator at Colorado’s largest coal-fired power plant would shut down by 2031, four years earlier than what was initially agreed upon by operator Xcel Energy and government agencies, according to a new version of a settlement proposal obtained by CPR News Friday. Attorneys involved in regulatory proceedings determining the future of Xcel’s energy grid said negotiations were still happening Friday and would likely continue through the weekend. The revised settlement is expected to be submitted to the Colorado Public Utilities Commission early next week, said Ellen Kutzer, an attorney for Western Resource Advocates, an environmental group involved in the negotiations. “We’re still working with Xcel and we’re still talking with them, but we have not technically signed off on any agreement yet,” Kutzer said. “It’s definitely very much still in flux.” The current negotiations follow comments made by public utility commissioners, who said the newest unit of the Comanche Generating Station in Pueblo should close earlier than 2035. The commission was scheduled to discuss the closing date at a hearing on April 18 before learning Xcel Energy was looking to rework parts of the settlement to garner more support from environmental groups and state agencies. Public Utilities Commission spokesperson Becky Quintana declined to comment and said a new settlement agreement had not yet been filed. "We respect the legal process of these ongoing settlement negotiations and can’t comment further. We are grateful to all the parties who are working side-by-side with us in the ongoing discussions as we stated to the Colorado Public Utilities Commission on Monday, April 18, 2022," Xcel spokesperson Michelle Aguayo said.
TVA looks to replace its biggest coal power plant with cleaner natural gas generation --America's largest government-owned utility is looking to replace its biggest coal power plant with more energy-efficient and cleaner natural gas generation to supply the electricity needs of more than 1.1 million homes in Tennessee and Kentucky. The Tennessee Valley Authority on Monday released a draft environmental report that recommended the best alternative for its aging Cumberland Fossil Plant in Cumberland City, Tennessee, is to shut down the twin-unit coal plant and replace it with a combined-cycle natural gas generating facility. But environmental groups are urging TVA to abandon the use of any fossil fuels at Cumberland to help meet the U.S. climate-control targets, including President Biden's pledge that the nation's electricity industry be carbon free within the next 13 years. "Today's proposal is yet another indication that TVA is ready to move beyond coal, but might get stuck in the past with gas," Amy Kelly, a campaign representative for the Sierra Club's Beyond Coal Campaign in Tennessee, said in a statement after the TVA environmental study was released. "One less coal plant in the Tennessee Valley means cleaner air, safer water, and progress toward reducing climate-disrupting emissions, but replacing coal with another fossil fuel gas plant makes no economic and environmental sense." TVA officials insist that natural gas can be "a cleaner bridge fuel" essential for maintaining power reliability when the sun doesn't shine, the wind doesn't blow or TVA's nuclear and hydroelectric units are out of service. TVA said it has reduced its carbon emissions by 57% since 2005, which is nearly double the industry average, and continues to reduce its carbon emissions while maintaining its 99.999% reliability of power delivery. TVA's 478-page study released Monday — and scheduled to be officially published in the Federal Register on Friday — said the Cumberland coal-fired generators are increasingly less efficient and generate too much costly pollution for TVA. The coal units northwest of Nashville were built between 1968 and 1973 and are capable of generating 2,470 megawatts of electricity, Although TVA has installed wet limestone scrubbers and a selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system to limit both sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions from Cumberland, the plant remains one of the nation's biggest air polluters, releasing over 8 million tons of carbon pollution into the air each year. The planned shutdown of the Cumberland Plant and a similar study underway on the closing of the Kingston Fossil Plant follows TVA's earlier closings in the past decade of its John Sevier, Widows Creek, Colbert, Allen and Paradise coal plants.
Manchin energy mantra collides with reality in W.Va. - When Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) explains why he has blocked key parts of the president’s climate agenda, he often points to his support for an “all-of-the-above energy” strategy. In recent months, Manchin sank President Joe Biden’s $1.7 trillion social and climate spending package, jettisoned a high-profile nominee for the Federal Reserve, and objected to a plan by the Securities and Exchange Commission to increase corporate accountability for global warming risks. None of them supported his all-of-the-above energy vision, Manchin said each time. But when it comes to energy production, the senator’s home state of West Virginia is far from being diverse. Its power is derived almost entirely from coal. And it’s translating to higher electricity costs for his constituents, according to federal data and some researchers. Manchin has used the phrase “all-of-the-above energy” for years. It’s a mantra that he has relied on to explain his opposition to regulations of greenhouse gases, to support his rejection of Biden’s social spending and climate package known as “Build Back Better,” and when he wants to ensure that fossil fuels are included in any strategy to use public funds to promote clean energy deployment. Earlier this month, Manchin used the phrase to describe his solution to fight rising inflation. “[Rising inflation] demands the Administration and Congress, Democrats and Republicans alike, support an all-of-the-above energy strategy because that is the only way to bring down the high price of gas and energy while attacking climate change,” he said in a statement. He also used it to oppose a much-anticipated rule last month by the Securities and Exchange Commission that would require companies to disclose their effects on the climate. Manchin said the rule, which could take effect this spring, sends “a signal of opposition to the all-of-the-above energy policy that is critical to our country right now.” Last month, he tanked the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin to the Federal Reserve, because she “failed to satisfactorily address my concerns about the critical importance of financing an all-of-the-above energy policy.” Raskin was seen by environmentalists as someone who could reshape the central bank’s approach to financial resiliency against climate change. As Manchin was calling for all of the above in federal energy policy, West Virginia was generating electricity with one of the least diverse energy mixes in the country. About 88 percent of the state’s power is derived from coal, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Just 6 percent comes from renewable resources, chiefly hydropower and wind energy.
It's about to get a lot harder for cities to block fossil fuel projects under Tennessee legislature's latest move -The Tennessee House just passed its latest preemption bill that’s designed to help fossil fuel companies build new infrastructure like pipelines.The bill passed 68-25 on Monday, and it’s expected to be signed by Gov. Bill Lee within the next two weeks.The legislation preempts local governments from taking action that would prohibit fossil fuel development or expansion. Although the bill was modified with someamendments, it does not define what a prohibitive action is – and energy experts said the vague text could allow fossil fuel companies to intimidate local governments with lawsuits to fast-track construction.“I think there’s still a lot of history to be written about what the implications of the bill are,” said George Nolan, an attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center.During a floor speech on Monday, Rep. Kevin Vaughan, R-Collierville, repeatedly described what the bill doesn’t do, but skipped over some key details of what it does, including preventing cities or counties from regulating or enforcing safety standards for pipelines. The bill “voids local action if such action is, or acts as…regulation or enforcement of safety standards for pipeline facilities or pipeline transportation.”The bill, which explicitly excludes solar energy, also preempts local governments from blocking a fossil fuel entity to “exercise its rights related to the siting of energy infrastructure or industrial infrastructure.”The Tennessee Chamber of Commerce and the Tennessee Fuel and Convenience Store Association supported the legislation. Both groups receive financial support from fossil fuel companies.Earlier this month, the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report warned that nations must peak emissions by 2025 and halve them by 2030 to avoid catastrophic warming. The report said nations should rapidly transition to clean energy and away from fossil fuels, which accounted for about 86% of global greenhouse gas emissions in the past decade.In the absence of state or federal action, some cities have taken steps to reduce emissions. Subsequently, some states have been passing preemption laws to block such action. For example, in 2020, Tennessee became one of the first states to preempt cities from being able to ban gas for heating and cooking in new buildings.The Tennessee Valley Authority, the state’s largest utility, is planning to build more gas plants for electricity, which also means new pipelines and potentially decades of fossil fuel use – or, at least, fossil fuel investments. TVA recently filed a document with the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding its board’s approval of $3.5 billion for two of its projects.
Two US Electrical Grid Operators Claim That New Rules For Coal Ash Could Make Electricity Supplies Less Reliable --Two of the nation’s grid operators are warning the Environmental Protection Agency that enforcement of coal ash regulations poses risks to the reliability of electrical service over a large part of the country. The comments from PJM Interconnect and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, are buried deep in government dockets used by the EPA to share public records and collect comments on the agency’s first-ever enforcement of regulations on the management of waste from burning coal at power plants. They are worried that actions taken by the EPA could at least temporarily shut down coal plants when there is a need for their electricity. The grid operators’ comments could play into a lawsuit filed earlier this month by an organization representing electric utilities against the Biden administration over its decision in January to begin enforcing those same coal ash regulations. The regulations were adopted by the Obama administration in 2015 after decades of pressure from environmental groups and resistance from the industry over the best way to manage one of the nation’s largest industrial waste streams.The regulations required most of the nation’s approximately 500 unlined coal ash surface impoundments to stop receiving waste and begin closing by April 2021, among other requirements for coal ash landfills. The rules also exempted landfills that had already closed, and as a result, the EPA may have left as much as half of all coal combustion waste ever produced in the United States unregulated by EPA.But the ash pits, often sitting in water, are laced with contaminants like mercury, cadmium and arsenic, and regularly pollute groundwater and send particulate air pollution into nearby communities. They were a major focus of the January enforcement announcement.The Trump administration had allowed utilities to request compliance delays, but in January, the EPA said it was taking action on the first nine of 57 extension applications filed, denying three, approving one, finding four incomplete and ruling one ineligible. Then, on April 8, electric utilities struck back with a petition in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit from the Utility Solid Waste Activities Group, whichincludes many of the nation’s electricity utilities.USWAG, in its court filing, asserted that the EPA in January issued “regulations and requirements … without notice and comment,” as required by law, and asked for a judicial review of the agency’s actions.
Biden's $6B nuclear plan hits '24th hour' roadblock - The Biden administration’s $6 billion effort to keep struggling nuclear plants operating is facing a barrier in Michigan and California.A top energy executive yesterday confirmed that one of the first plants poised to qualify for financial support under the Energy Department’s newly unveiled lifeline — Michigan’s Palisades plant — remains on schedule to close May 31, throwing the Midwestern state’s climate goals into question.Leo Denault, CEO of Entergy Corp., owner of the Palisades plant, told security analysts yesterday that a buyer who succeeded in acquiring the generator would also bear refueling costs and other expenses.“We will work with any qualified party,” he said. But he added, “I do want to be very clear. Entergy is exiting the merchant nuclear business. The plant will have to stop operating in May. We’ll be out of fuel.”His comments echoed those of Patrick Dillon, executive vice president of the Utility Workers Union of America, AFL-CIO, who told E&E News that “we’re in the 24th hour, we needed a decision yesterday.”About 160 members of the union currently work at the Palisades facility. “I’m not going to say it’s high on the likelihood scale from our perspective” that the plant will continue operating beyond May, he added.Dillon said he hoped Palisades would stay open, but workers there have been preparing the 800-megawatt facility for closure for months. “I think it’s a stretch to think that a purchaser is going to come in at this late date and continue the operation of the plant,” he said.The comments came after the administration launched a program last week offering grants for struggling nuclear reactors. (Energywire, April 20).The last-minute attempt to retain the plants reflects the importance of the 93 existing U.S. nuclear reactors to President Joe Biden’s plans to decarbonize the power sector by 2035. Because nuclear power doesn’t produce carbon emissions, there are concerns that reactor closures would inevitably lead to more fossil fuel generation.
Is Massachusetts a Target for a Nuclear Attack? Lawmakers Lag on Legislation to Find Out – Russia has said that the threat of a nuclear war is very real and defense stocks have skyrocketed since the invasion in Ukraine, prompting Cold War-era concerns even in Massachusetts.There is a bill pending in the State House that would create a citizens' commission to study the potential threat and look into the state's involvement with nuclear weapon production. The Massachusetts Legislature has less than a week to vote on the issue before a May 4 deadline.Harvard scholar Oleh Kotsyuba and Northeastern University professors Mai’a Cross and Pablo Calderon weighed in on whether Massachusetts should create this type of commission and how real the nuclear threat really is to the Bay State during NBC10 Boston's weekly series, "Russia-Ukraine Q&A."A report from NuclearBan.US, a nonprofit organization that seeks to ban nuclear weapons, states that Massachusetts is a target in part because it's home to nuclear weapons facilities for the U.S. military."Massachusetts is a serious target for nuclear attack," said Emma Pike, Massachusetts Advocacy Coordinator for NuclearBan.US. "Even as an expert who has been in the field for nearly a decade, I had no idea that my own home state was a top nuclear target in America until recently. It's terrifying stuff."Local experts were less convinced of an immediate nuclear threat to the Bay State. They did agree, however, that creating a commission is important to maintain the cultural taboo around nuclear weapons."I think there's very little threat to Massachusetts at the moment," Cross said. "If Massachusetts were truly under a nuclear threat, then we would be talking about the potential for a global nuclear war, which is, you know, a kind of doomsday scenario that none of us want to even contemplate."
FirstEnergy deposition looms in shareholder lawsuit for bribery, misleading investors - It has been nine months since FirstEnergy Corp. admitted to federal prosecutors that it bribed Ohio’s top utility regulator and the speaker of the Ohio House. Investors in the electric utility may soon get the chance to ask a few follow-up questions about how the $64 million operation came together. Besides the criminal allegations against former speaker Larry Householder and four alleged conspirators, some investors in the company filed a lawsuit alleging company executives defrauded the shareholders. Now they’re seeking answers from a company representative on one specific subject: the deferred prosecution agreement, which FirstEnergy entered with the U.S. Department of Justice last summer. The agreement called for FirstEnergy to admit to a lengthy statement of facts outlining the bribery operation, cooperate with federal prosecutors, and pay a $230 million penalty. In return, the company can avoid a charge of honest services wire fraud. On March 29, the lead plaintiff for the shareholders’ lawsuit filed notice to depose a FirstEnergy representative on April 27. FirstEnergy — which has fought to limit outside investigations into its conduct from other shareholders and a state utility watchdog — insists it needs more time to prepare its official and wants to delay the deposition for four to nine weeks. Shareholders say in such a complex case (it includes 25 defendants and 17 entities), there’s no time to waste. Attorneys for FirstEnergy’s former CEO Chuck Jones and former top lobbyist Mike Dowling — both of whom were outed in similar shareholder litigation as the principal architects of the bribery schemes and were fired in October 2020 — sided with FirstEnergy in seeking the later date. The shareholders say besides costing them money in lost value, the political scandal cheated the public out of hundreds of millions through their electric bills. House Bill 6, legislation passed in 2019 at the center of the criminal cases, was worth an estimated $1.3 billion to FirstEnergy. Among other provisions, it charged hundreds of millions from ratepayers to cover FirstEnergy’s losses on two nuclear plants. It also forced ratepayers to guarantee FirstEnergy’s revenue levels at a high baseline, which Jones said at the time would “essentially recession-proof” a sizable chunk of company operations. The shareholders say FirstEnergy shouldn’t be able to get away with dragging its feet now, especially regarding questions about conduct the company admitted to in court nine months ago.
‘This Needs to Be Fixed’: Nuclear Expert Calls Radioactivity Levels Found Outside Ohio Oilfield Waste Facility ‘Excessive’ – DeSmog - Activists and scientists have found alarming levels of radioactivity in samples collected along the road and soils outside Austin Master Services, an oilfield waste processing facility with a history of sloppy practices in eastern Ohio. The facility is located just down the street from a high school football stadium and less than 1,000 feet from a set of city drinking water wells, raising public health concerns from a nuclear forensics scientist about the extent of possible radioactive contamination. Last November, members of two advocacy groups, Concerned Ohio River Residents and Mountain Watershed Association, collected soil samples from outside the Martins Ferry, Ohio facility of Austin Master Services, a Pottstown, Pennsylvania-based company that operates in 10 states. Both groups are concerned about the handling of radioactive oilfield waste in their region, which has seen over a decade of intensive fracking development in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations. All of that oil and gas drilling produces huge volumes of liquid and solid waste that need treatment and disposal. Oilfield waste service companies pick it up directly at the wellhead, and sometimes perform an initial processing, before bringing some of it to facilities like Austin Master’s for additional treatment. But how well-prepared such companies are to handle the industry’s radioactive waste is being increasingly called into question. For instance, a DeSmog investigation has revealed that railcars carrying radioactive oilfield waste from Austin Master in Martins Ferry have arrived leaking at a final disposal facility in Utah on multiple occasions between 2015 and 2020. The Ohio and Pennsylvania advocacy groups sent the Austin Master samples to Marco Kaltofen, a nuclear forensics scientist in Massachusetts who has extensive experience examining radioactive waste from the nuclear weapons, nuclear power generation, and oil and gas industries. Before the activists gathered the samples, Kaltofen advised them on appropriately handling and shipping the potentially radioactive samples. After reviewing them, he then sent the samples to Eberline Analytical, a radiological analysis lab in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The relatively high levels of radioactivity in the results, returned in February, immediately caught Kaltofen’s attention. “This needs to be fixed,” he says. They found levels of radium-226 at 14.1 picocuries per gram, and radium-228 at 3.7 picocuries per gram. Radium is one of several naturally occurring radioactive elements well-known to occur in oilfield waste. Soil nationwide generally has a radium background level of about 1 picocurie per gram, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) limit for topsoil at uranium mills and Superfund toxic waste dumps is 5 picocuries per gram above background levels. The samples analyzed by Eberline also showed elevated levels of radioactive forms of lead and thorium. “This is an impressive source of contamination. These numbers are well above background and excessive,” says Kaltofen. “I have very grave concern about the accidental inhalation and ingestion of these particles. My concern here is wind is going to move this out into the neighborhood.” The radioactive dust and soil may settle in yards where children play, he says, and kids tend to dig around in grass and dirt, and then touch their fingers to their mouths. This is especially worrisome, according to Kaltofen, because radium is considered a “bone-seeker.” If accidentally inhaled or ingested, the radioactive element tends to accumulate in the bones, where it continues emitting radiation and can lead to cancer. “Radium 226 is a potent source of radiation exposure, both internal and external,” notes a 1982 report that discusses oilfield radioactivity hazards and was produced by the American Petroleum Institute’s Department of Medicine and Biology’s Committee for Environmental Biology and Community Health.
Ohio's Low-Producing Wells Leave Huge Methane Footprint - They account for a minuscule amount of U.S. oil and gas production, but new research found low-producing oil and gas wells have a large methane footprint.Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas responsible for at least one-quarter of current global warming. According to the report, the country's 565,000 low-production well sites are responsible for a combined four million metric tons of methane, or nearly half of all U.S. methane emissions.Tracy Sabetta, an organizer for Moms Clean Air Force in Ohio, explained a huge share, 30%, comes from the Appalachian Basin, which includes Ohio."With Ohio having as many oil and gas producing wells as we do, it is a pollutant that we just can't ignore," Sabetta asserted. "In fact, our state has the second-highest number of individuals who live within a half-mile of an oil and natural gas producing facility."The study is published in the journal Nature Communications. The Environmental Protection Agency is considering new standards to reduce oil and gas methane emissions, but operators producing lower emissions would be exempt. Mark Omara, senior analyst for the Environmental Defense Fund and the study's lead author, said the bulk of emissions from low-production natural gas sites is the result of prolonged negligence by operators. "Rusted pipes from which leaks occur, pressure-relief valves that malfunction, open-thief hatches on tanks that continue to vent," Omara outlined. "All of these issues can be fixed via regular monitoring and leak inspection and repair."Sabetta suggested it is in the best interest of the oil and gas industry to address methane leaks, as about 10% of low-production well sites are less than 10 years old."If you look at prices from 2019, there's more than $700 million in wasted natural gas," Sabetta pointed out. "That is enough to supply over 3.6 million homes in the U.S. annually, or to power every single home in Ohio."An earlier analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund found the vast majority of low-production wells are owned by major companies with the financial resources to reduce energy waste.
Utica Gas Power Plant on Ohio River Uses Hydrogen in World First - A world-first happened along the banks of the Ohio River in Hannibal (Monroe County), OH in March. The Long Ridge Energy Terminal, host to a Utica shale gas-fired power plant that went online last November, successfully added a 5% mixture of hydrogen to the natural gas it burns in March. The plant is now using and continuing to experiment with up to 20% hydrogen as part of the mix it burns through next year. Eventually, the plant’s owners plan to burn 100% hydrogen, crowding out Utica Shale gas (a shame).
Study: Ohio has infrastructure, industries to develop hydrogen hub - Ohio is an optimal location to develop the hydrogen industry, according to a new study commissioned by JobsOhio and the Stark Area Regional Transit Authority. The state has a plentiful supply of natural gas, as well as energy from nuclear, solar, wind and even biomass sources like landfills that can be used in the process to produce hydrogen, Cleveland State University researchers concluded in the report "Developing a Hydrogen Economy in Ohio: Challenges and Opportunities."SARTA is a founding member of the Ohio Clean Energy Hub Alliance, which wants to create a hydrogen hub in the region.The study, which was released earlier this month, also noted that the state's natural gas pipelines can be repurposed to more cheaply transport hydrogen, which can be costly to move by truck. Ohio has several industries that would find it efficient and economical to use hydrogen in manufacturing and to fuel heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles that use fuel cells like buses, forklifts and trucks. And Ohio has the storage capacity and manufacturing applications to capture the carbon emitted when using natural gas to make hydrogen.The 75-page study projected higher demand for hydrogen whether the federal or state government mandates zero-carbon emissions.But the study by Mark Henning and Andrew R. Thomas of the Midwest Hydrogen Center of Excellence at Cleveland State also points out the challenges of adopting hydrogen. Hydrogen is more costly to store and transport than other energy sources. The two wrote that for hydrogen to be viable and eventually carbon free decades down the road, Ohio's hydrogen development must have an "all of the above" approach.The cost of extracting natural gas to make the hydrogen will eventually increase as the Utica Shale's natural gas reserves are drained decades from now. That will require a transition to other energy sources, which for now require a higher cost to make hydrogen and are not yet as plentiful. And using natural gas to make hydrogen results in the emission of carbon, which has to be mitigated to be a true carbon-free technology that reduces climate change.
Clean energy future? Fossil fuel boondoggle? Chamber pushes for hydrogen hub in Ohio - An association of natural gas, transportation and tech businesses are pushing for a piece of an $8 billion federal investment to create a “clean hydrogen hub” in Ohio.Hydrogen, the most abundant chemical element in the universe, could overtake coal, oil, and gas as America’s predominant source of energy, its proponents say. It’s lightweight and can create energy without accompanying fossil fuel emissions.So-called “green hydrogen” is created via electrolysis, where electricity splits hydrogen from oxygen molecules in water. However, the green technology has yet to scale; estimates suggest that about 96% of hydrogen currently produced is “blue hydrogen,” created from a mix of electrolysis and the “steam methane reforming” of natural gas.Hydrogen burns cleanly as a fuel, but its creation via natural gas leaks methane and emits carbon dioxide into the air — both of which are greenhouse gasses and major contributors to climate change.On Thursday, the Ohio Clean Energy Hub Alliance — represented by the Stark Area Regional Transit Authority, Ohio Chamber of Commerce, technology company Battelle, and hydrogen car maker Hyperion — pitched their efforts to build Ohio into a hub of blue hydrogen production. The green hydrogen, the alliance representatives said, would come later as the technology develops.Carbon capture technology, the alliance says, would catch the carbon emissions before they leave any hydrogen-producing plant. The carbon would then be compressed and stored underground at a yet-unspecified site in Southeast Ohio, further limiting environmental footprint.Environmentalists are leery of blue hydrogen. The Ohio River Valley Institute called the hub a “boondoggle” in the making. The Sierra Club, an environmental advocacy organization, only supports hydrogen as a clean fuel if it’s produced without fossil fuels. Neil Waggoner, who works on the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign, said blue hydrogen isn’t really reducing carbon. It’s just capturing it and burying it.“This is all about finding the future for the gas industry, so they stay relevant and don’t have to change that much,” he said.The hub’s advocates, however, painted a rosier picture. Steve Stivers, the former congressman turned CEO of the state Chamber of Commerce, argued hydrogen can boost domestic energy production and lessen foreign energy dependence. He focused on hydrogen’s use as a clean fuel and less so on the carbon footprint of producing it — 2021 modeling in the journal Energy Science and Engineering estimated that the greenhouse gas footprint for blue hydrogen is more than 20% greater than burning coal or gas for heat. The hydrogen supporters were vague on details as to when blue (gas-created) hydrogen would sunset and green hydrogen would rise. Its champions, however, point to its current uses. Kirt Conrad, SARTA’s CEO, oversees a fleet of 21 hydrogen-fueled buses that emit bits of water and steam instead of smoggy exhaust. They’ve driven 700,000 miles since they were acquired in 2016, he said, preventing 1,700 tons of carbon dioxide from entering the oxygen.
Oil And Gas Production Projected To Rise In Utica, Marcellus Shale - – Oil and natural gas production from wells in eastern Ohio’s Utica-Point Pleasant and Pennsylvania’s Marcellus shale is expected to climb in May, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency.According to EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report released April 18, the Utica-Point Pleasant and Marcellus region – collectively referred to as Appalachia – is projected to step up oil production by 3,000 barrels per day and increase natural gas output by 197 million cubic feet per day by next month.In April, EIA estimates that energy companies across the region produced 111,000 barrels of oil per day. That should increase to 114,000 barrels per day in May. Total natural gas production is expected to jump from 35.443 billion cubic feet per day in April to 35.640 billion cubic feet daily in May.Six of the seven shale plays across the country are projected to increase oil or natural gas production next month, EIA reports. Every shale region in the United States is expected to increase oil production with the exception of the Haynesville shale, which straddles Louisiana and Texas. That shale play is expected to remain unchanged at 34,000 barrels produced per day. The largest output of oil is expected from the Permian Basin in Texas at 5.137 million barrels per day next month, an increase of 82,000 barrels per day compared to April’s production data.The Appalachian region continues to be the country’s gas giant with expected yields in May of 35.640 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. The next-largest producer is the Permian, with a projected 19.533 billion cubic feet of natural gas produced each day for that month.Just one shale region, the Anadarko in Oklahoma, projected a decline in natural gas production. That shale play is expected to decrease production by 15 million cubic feet per day, from 6.118 billion to 6.103 billion cubic feet per day, according to EIA’s report.Despite higher oil prices, no new permits to drill new oil or gas wells in the Utica-Point Pleasant’s northern region – generally consisting of Columbiana, Mahoning and Trumbull counties — have been issued by theOhio Department of Natural Resources this year.In April, EAP Ohio, which acquired much of Chesapeake Energy’s position in Columbiana County several years ago, applied for permits to deepen three wells it drilled earlier in Hanover Township. Those permits have yet to be awarded, according to ODNR records.
Antero Betting on Bullish 'Structural Shift' in Natural Gas Prices - Appalachian Basin pure-play Antero Resources Co. is betting on continued high natural gas prices, driven by a “structural shift” in the relationship between U.S. prices and storage levels, CEO Paul Rady said Thursday. “The primary driver behind this shift is the supply side,” Rady told analysts during a call to discuss first quarter earnings. He cited “limited access to capital, limits on infrastructure buildout, and also supply chain constraints that limit production growth” as impediments to growing supply and filling storage capacity ahead of the 2022-2023 winter. Other bullish pricing factors include upstream inventory exhaustion, continued liquefied natural gas (LNG) export growth and low global storage levels, Rady said. “We believe this bodes well for commodity pricing moving forward and Antero is best positioned to directly benefit from higher prices.” Antero holds more than 501,000 net acres in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays, where it produced 3.2 Bcfe/d during the first quarter. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated each of these factors, Rady indicated. “As Europe looks to strengthen its energy security, it has become clear that there will be a significant call on U.S. shale gas in the coming decades,” the CEO said. “Importantly, with Antero’s 2.3 Bcf/d of firm transportation to the LNG fairways, we are uniquely positioned to supply the increase in international demand.” Rady said Antero already is selling nearly 1 Bcf/d of gas to LNG facilities on a mix of long- and short-term contracts. As additional export capacity is built out, Antero believes its gas will fetch a higher premium to New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) pricing “and will become more closely linked to international prices,” Rady said. “we’re not interested in longer-term supply deals unless we receive significantly higher premiums,” Rady said, citing that “there’s too much optionality today to get locked in prematurely.” Antero’s Justin Fowler said that Antero expects U.S. supply growth “to underwhelm” in 2022, making it difficult to hit consensus estimates of around 3.5 Tcf of gas in storage when injection season officially ends Oct. 31. “Production would need to average over 97 Bcf/d every single day, beginning from today through November,” Fowler said. “This represents a nearly 4 Bcf/d increase from current production levels.” In addition to supply constraints and geopolitical tensions, Fowler said that, “We continue to see very strong power generation and industrial demand,” and noted that LNG exports are expected to grow as incremental capacity comes online this year. “This suggests even higher supply growth will be required to fill storage ahead of next winter,” he said. Fowler echoed Rady’s prediction that, as U.S. LNG export capacity grows, pricing along the main U.S. LNG supply corridors will see a higher premium to Henry Hub and track closer to global LNG benchmarks.
Range Resources CEO Calls for Federal, State Support as Natural Gas Prices, Demand Spike - Range Resources Corp. CEO Jeff Ventura said Wednesday Appalachian natural gas producers need more support from policymakers if they are expected to help meet increasing demand for the fuel at home and abroad. Aggressive domestic and international energy transition policies, along with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has jeopardized European gas imports, have pushed prices higher. The policies also have reduced supply, Ventura said during a first quarter conference call. Range holds nearly 500,000 net acres in the core of the Marcellus Shale in Southwest Pennsylvania, where it still has a multi-decade drilling inventory. Ventura said Appalachian natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) should have a stronger role in the global call for supplies. However, the CEO stressed that “a more meaningful increase in natural gas supply will require support from federal, state and local governments, to provide critical infrastructure in the form of pipelines, compression and LNG terminals to get Appalachian natural gas to the end markets that need it.” Some in-basin demand and incremental takeaway projects are expected in Appalachia in the years ahead, Ventura said. Still, he noted that more infrastructure is needed to significantly boost production. “But the industry is currently hindered by a lack of additional infrastructure due to permitting delays, policy decisions and rhetoric that discourages long-term capital investment in natural gas and natural gas infrastructure,” he said. Rising commodity prices lifted Range’s first quarter results. Realized natural gas, NGL and oil prices during the period, including cash-settled hedges and derivative settlements. averaged $4.83/Mcfe, up from $3.01 in the year-ago period. Average realized natural gas prices, including the impact of basis hedging, was $4.92/Mcf, or 3 cents above the average New York Mercantile Exchange price for the period. Pre-hedge NGL realizations were $40.03/bbl, or 74 cents above the benchmark Mont Belvieu equivalent during the quarter. Range said first quarter NGL realizations were driven by higher ethane prices and an improving market for propane and heavier NGL products. The company expects up to a $2 premium to Mont Belvieu pricing this year given its international exposure at the Marcus Hook export terminal near Philadelphia. As buyers in Europe look to diversify energy supplies in a pivot away from Russia, COO Dennis Degner said the company expects strong international NGL demand. He added that domestic propane levels are at historic lows as well. About 30% of Range’s full-year production is expected to be NGLs. The company produced 2.071 Bcfe in the first quarter, flat with 1Q2021 volumes of 2.081 Bcfe as the company looked to better control spending and output heading into the year. Management also stressed that it was keeping a close eye on inflation and supply chain issues as the costs for fuel, steel and sand have increased. Some costs have been offset by previous moves to secure 2022 tubular goods and extend a contract for the company’s electric hydraulic fracturing fleet, Degner said. Range reported a first quarter net loss of $457 million (minus $1.86/share), compared with year-ago net profits of i$27 million (11 cents). The 1Q2022 results were primarily related to a $939 million hedging loss from a wrong-way bet on the direction of natural gas prices.
API releases statement regarding Pennsylvania-produced natural gas - American Petroleum Institute Pennsylvania (API PA)'s Executive Director, Stephanie Catarino Wissman, released the following statement for Earth Day on 22 April 2022: “No other nation has cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions more than the US since 2000, thanks in part to the shift to cleaner natural gas as a source of electricity generation and Pennsylvania’s abundant supply of shale gas. Our industry is investing and prioritising breakthrough technologies with initiatives like The Environmental Partnership to provide cleaner, reliable and affordable energy around the world. American energy leadership not only can help provide stability and security but also further global environmental progress.”As the second-top producer of natural gas in the nation, Pennsylvania energy is transforming the country and the world in the following ways:
- In 2019, federal estimates show that natural gas from Pennsylvania’s Marcellus and Utica Shale has been shipped out to 20 different countries.
- By exporting cleaner natural gas – in the form of LNG – the dual challenge of powering a growing population while lowering greenhouse gas emissions can be met.
- Average methane intensity declined by nearly 60% across key US producing regions, including Appalachia, between 2011 and 2020, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Information Administration data.
Marcellus Natural Gas Conduit Adelphia Begins Partial Service on Expansion - Adelphia Gateway LLC has started partial service on its brownfield natural gas pipeline expansion project moving Marcellus Shale supply to growing demand markets in eastern Pennsylvania and beyond, pipeline flow data shows.Adelphia started flowing on Monday, moving natural gas supply from the Quakertown meter station through the Marcus Hook facility to the Tilghman meter. Receipts at the Texas Eastern Transmission Co. West Rockhill interconnect are at around 8.1 MMcf/d, while deliveries at Peco Energy Co.’s Tilghman interconnect are at 8 MMcf/d, according to Wood Mackenzie.However, flows are expected to ramp up, Wood Mackenzie analyst Devin Cao said. “This partial service will deliver 31.5 MMcf/d from the West Rockhill receipt to the Peco-Tilghman delivery point,” which is subscribed by Peco and parent company Exelon Corp.The Adelphia Gateway Phase II project is around 93% completed, with most of the remaining work still to be done at the Quakertown compressor station, Cao said. The meter station portion of the Quakertown facility already is operational and flowing gas to the south zone.FERC granted Adelphia a certificate for the expansion project in late 2019 in a 2-1 vote after it secured the permits needed to begin construction from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. It started pre-construction activities in the fall of 2020.Part of the pipeline was already moving gas to two power plants in Northampton County, PA, but the expansion repurposes the southern segment to move additional volumes. The system – which once delivered oil to a refinery near Philadelphia – has been designed to move 175,000 Dth/d on Zone North A, 350,000 Dth/d on Zone North B and 250,000 Dth/d on Zone South.In January, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted Adelphia an extension until June 2023 to complete the entire project. The pipeline developer cited regulatory delays, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain issues in its request for an extension. However, Cao said it seems more likely that the project would come online before the end of this year.
CNX Resources Corp. extends contract for hydraulic fracturing - Pittsburgh Business Times --CNX Resources Corp. has extended its contract for the electric hydraulic fracturing fleet for its natural gas production.CNX said it had signed a four-year agreement with Evolution Well Services of The Woodlands, Texas, extending a deal that began in 2018 for natural gas-fueled hydraulic fracturing fleets to replace diesel engines on the well pad. CNX was the first in the basin to employ electric fracturing units, which is something that other companies are also now doing."Four years later, with the safety, environmental, and efficiency benefits clearly demonstrated, we are pleased to enter into another long-term contract that provides certainty in an uncertain supply chain world that is disrupting all facets of our economy," said CNX COO Chad Griffith in a statement. "We'll continue to improve the local environment, increase the quality of our execution, and mitigate ongoing inflationary cost risks with this important relationship."Financial terms weren't announced.The turbines save money, run cleaner than diesel, reduce truck traffic and are much more efficient than what had been employed previously.
CNX Extends Contract for Electric Fracturing Fleet in Appalachia - CNX Resources Corp. said Tuesday it would extend a long-term agreement with Evolution Well Services to continue utilizing an all-electric fracturing fleet in the Appalachian Basin.COO Chad Griffith said after four years of working with Evolution’s fleet the “safety, environmental and efficiency benefits” have been clearly demonstrated. CNX holds more than one million Marcellus and Utica shale acres scattered across Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The company has extended the agreement for another four years. Griffith said the deal also “provides certainty in an uncertain supply chain world that is disrupting all faces of our economy.” Service from Evolution’s 100% electric and natural gas-fueled fleet started in 2019. CNX management said the deal has resulted in higher operational efficiencies, lower emissions and significant well cost savings. As part of the agreement, both CNX and Evolution could continue introducing technologies to further cut emissions and improve operations. Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) has largely been done using diesel-powered pumps, but in recent years e-fracking has made inroads in basins across the country. The process utilizes what would otherwise be flared gas by shuttling it to gas-fired turbines that power electric motors.
Documents show Spire scrambling for survival of St. Louis pipeline after court ruling -- Deep into Missouri’s feverish summer, a St. Louis hardware store owner found his customers clamoring for something surprising: Electric space heaters. “The weather was warm and it was strange that people were worried about it,” said Don Heberer, owner of Rathbone Hardware. He estimates he sold about 20% more space heaters than normal for that time of year. The reason? The local gas utility company was warning people that, come winter, they might not have heat. Spire Inc — an investor-owned gas conglomerate — issued the warnings last year after a court ordered it to shut down its new 65-mile STL Pipeline. The court ruled that the company hadn’t proved to federal regulators that the customer-funded $287 million project was even needed. Spire’s only buyer for the gas from the pipeline was the utility it owns, Spire Missouri Inc. Critics said Spire was self dealing, at the expense of captive gas customers. The court decision left Spire — and St. Louis — with a problem. The company had spent years disconnecting its customers from the region’s existing pipelines and routing them to its own. Without the new pipeline, Spire warned that a winter storm could leave up to 400,000 customers without heat in the depths of winter. The energy company quickly undertook a bare-knuckles marketing campaign to warn the public of the threat — and try to convince them of the need for the pipeline. In radio spots, social media ads and press releases to reporters, the utility warned that people risked freezing. Missouri regulators at the Public Service Commission have said Spire “created unnecessary panic and confusion.”
Production Drop Sends Natural Gas Futures Higher, while Chilly Weather Lifts Cash Natural gas futures volatility continued ahead of contract expirations this week, with the May Nymex contract up early as freeze-offs in the Rockies over the weekend dented production. The prompt month traded in a nearly 50.0-cent range before settling Monday at $6.669/MMBtu, up 13.5 cents from Friday’s close. June futures rose 14.2 cents to $6.805. Spot gas prices rebounded on Monday ahead of a chilly late-season weather system arriving in the country’s midsection. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. bumped up 27.0 cents to $6.465. After a huge downturn along the Nymex futures curve last week, the May contract was up early in Monday’s session. That followed some unseasonably cold weather that smacked the Rockies over the weekend, resulting in freeze-offs. Pipelines in the region had warned of potential impacts ahead of the cold front, but actual disruptions began Sunday. Wood Mackenzie noted that Williston Basin Pipeline issued a force majeure as a result of weather conditions. Additional constraints developed on Monday. Northern Border Pipeline, meanwhile, issued a low line pressure operational flow order from the Port of Morgan to Glen Ullin effective Sunday until May 2. Bespoke Weather Services said although it expects production figures to be revised higher, the decline in output likely explains some of the “wild volatility” in price action at the start of the week. Upside price risks may remain limited awhile in the near term, though, according to the firm. However, “we do expect volatility to remain elevated, and the bullish case later this year still exists,” it said. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand is expected to remain strong throughout the remainder of this year and beyond given Europe’s desire to wean itself off Russian gas in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. Though no incremental LNG capacity is scheduled to come online in the United States after Calcasieu Pass fully ramps up until around 2024, exports could swell to nearly 15 Bcf/d by December. This continued call on U.S. LNG during that time is likely to translate to below normal storage levels, according to BMO Capital Markets. Rising cooling demand could drive prices even higher.
U.S. natgas futures gain 3% as output declines raise storage worries - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 3% on Tuesday on worries Russia may cut gas flows to Poland and expectations that recent declines in output due to cold weather in North Dakota and the Rockies will cut the amount of gas utilities can inject into storage in coming weeks. Russian energy giant Gazprom told Poland's Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe gas company it will halt gas supplies along the Yamal pipeline from Wednesday morning. Traders also noted that technical factors likely also played a part in Tuesday's trade with the upcoming expiration of the May options. "Over the past year, the front-month contract has increased in eight of twelve months ... on options expiration day," On its second to last day as the U.S. front-month, gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 18.1 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $6.850 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). NYMEX gas options expire the day before the futures contract expires. Futures for June NGM22, which will soon be the front-month, gained about 2.5% to $6.98 per mmBtu. U.S. gas futures were up about 82% so far this year as higher global prices have kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Gas was trading around $31 per mmBtu in Europe and $25 in Asia. The U.S. gas market, however, remains mostly shielded from those higher global prices because the United States is the world's top gas producer, with all the fuel it needs for domestic use while capacity constraints inhibit exports of more LNG no matter how high global prices rise. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December 2021. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 3.9 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary 91.6 bcfd on Tuesday, the lowest since early February. Traders said most of those declines were caused by freezing wells in North Dakota and the Rockies. Those wells will likely return to service over the next week or so as the weather warms.
Natural Gas Surges to Close Wednesday, Sending May Futures Expiring 41 Cents Higher Natural gas futures surged for a third consecutive day against a backdrop of escalating global supply uncertainties after Russia cut off natural gas supplies to two European countries. With domestic fundamentals also tight this week, the May Nymex contract rolled off the board Wednesday at $7.267/MMBtu, up a massive 41.7 cents on the day. The June contract, which moves to the front of the Nymex curve on Thursday, climbed 36.1 cents to $7.339. Spot gas prices were mixed, as pipeline maintenance led prices lower in a few regions, while stronger-than-normal demand lifted others. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. picked up 27.5 cents to $7.070. Volatility continued along the Nymex futures strip, with the expiring May contract bringing about a fiery buying spree in the final half hour into the close of Wednesday’s session. Solid 30.0-cent gains were seen throughout the remainder of the year and into February. Though Russia’s halt of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria were not expected to have a significant impact on global balances, the potential for further cuts to European countries were keeping the market on its toes and fueling volatility. NatGasWeather noted that the political turmoil and resulting surge in global gas prices were likely infiltrating U.S. trading. Domestically, however, there were no major changes in balances. Although the overnight weather data added a little demand, the latest Global Forecast System model gave it back – and then some. NatGasWeather said strong demand was expected to continue through the weekend, with a mix of chilly late-season weather systems sweeping across the northern and eastern United States. The forecaster expects there to be enough demand the next 14 days to stall current supply deficits of 300 Bcf to keep the background state relatively bullish through May 10.
US natural gas storage climbs 40 Bcf to 1.49 Tcf as NYMEX future rally stalls - US working gas inventory expanded at a below-average pace in the third week of April, growing this season’s storage deficit to its widest yet, but failing to spur a bullish response from the NYMEX gas futures market. The US Energy Information Administration on April 28 announced another undersized injection of 40 Bcf to US gas storage for the week ending April 22 in its fourth reported inventory build of the season. The injection was just 2 Bcf less than anticipated by S&P Global Commodity Insights’ survey of analysts, which called for a 42 Bcf addition to stocks in the third week of April. With another below-average injection, US working gas inventories climbed to 1.49 Tcf in the week ended April 22. The storage deficit to 2021 narrowed as stocks climbed to 406 Bcf, or about 21%, below the year-ago level of 1.896 Tcf. Compared with the five-year average injection, though, the build came up short, growing this season’s deficit to its widest yet at 305 Bcf, or 17%, below the historical average, EIA data showed. The NYMEX Henry Hub June contract dropped 25 cents, or about 3%, from its prior-day settlement price to around $7.10/MMBtu following the report’s release. The balance-of-summer forward curve moved into slight backwardation from July to October, pricing at an average of about $7.20/MMBtu, data from CME Group showed. Futures, fundamentals Since April, the 2022 NYMEX Henry Hub futures curve has traded comfortably above $6/MMBtu, even testing highs in the upper $7 range more recently, S&P Global data shows. At a time of year when the US market typically troughs, the outlook for $6-$7/MMBtu gas remains on solid footing as this season’s inventory deficit lingers fueled by strong demand and flagging production. Through the reporting week ending May 6, unseasonably low temperatures in the US Northeast and across parts of the Midwest have and are expected to keep heating demand elevated, limiting storage injections. The storage deficit is expected to further widen in the upcoming two reporting weeks by anywhere from 30-40 Bcf in total, according to updated forecasts from S&P Global.
U.S. natgas futures drop 6% as output rises, demand slips (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 6% on Thursday on rising output as warmer weather in North Dakota thawed wells and forecasts pointed to milder weather and lower demand next week than previously expected. That U.S. price decline also came as gas futures in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 dropped about 8%, reversing some gains from earlier in the week after Russia stopped selling gas to Poland and Bulgaria, and after a U.S. report showing an expected smaller than usual storage build last week. NG/EU The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended April 22. That was close to the 38-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 18 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 53 bcf. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL On its first day as the U.S. front-month, gas futures NGc1 for June delivery fell 45.1 cents, or 6.1%, to settle at $6.888 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, when May was still the front-month, the contract settled at its highest since closing at a 13-year high of $7.82 on April 18. U.S. gas futures have gained about 86% so far this year as higher global prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Gas was trading around $31 per mmBtu in Europe and $25 in Asia. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 93.6 bcfd this week to 90.5 bcfd next week due to a seasonal warming of the weather. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to 12.3 bcfd so far in April due to maintenance at Gulf Coast plants, down from a record 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG.
U.S. natgas futures jump 5% as cooling demand starts to rise -- U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Friday as parts of the country move from heating demand to cooling demand, which could increase the amount of gas power generators burn to meet air conditioning loads and keep storage injections lower than usual in coming weeks. Traders noted U.S. futures also gained support from lower output in North Dakota following a brutal spring blizzard this week. U.S. front-month gas futures for June delivery rose 35.6 cents, or 5.2%, to settle at $7.244 per That put the contract up about 11% for the week and 28% in April after falling about 10% last week and rising about 28% in March. The premium for futures for July over June rose to a record 11 cents per mmBtu. U.S. gas futures have already gained about 95% so far this year as higher global prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Gas was trading around $30 per mmBtu in Europe and $25 in Asia. U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Friday as parts of the country move from heating demand to cooling demand, which could increase the amount of gas power generators burn to meet air conditioning loads and keep storage injections lower than usual in coming weeks. Traders noted U.S. futures also gained support from lower output in North Dakota following a brutal spring blizzard this week. U.S. front-month gas futures for June delivery rose 35.6 cents, or 5.2%, to settle at $7.244 per mmbtu. That put the contract up about 11% for the week and 28% in April after falling about 10% last week and rising about 28% in March. The premium for futures for July over June rose to a record 11 cents per mmBtu. U.S. gas futures have already gained about 95% so far this year as higher global prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Gas was trading around $30 per mmBtu in Europe and $25 in Asia. The U.S. gas market, however, remains mostly shielded from those much higher global prices because the United States is the world’s top gas producer, with all the fuel it needs for domestic use while capacity constraints inhibit exports of more LNG no matter how high global prices rise.
Oil spill cleanup continues in Edwardsville— Work crews on Tuesday were using heavy equipment to move earth along Old Alton Edwardsville Road just south of Illinois 143 in Edwardsville as cleanup of a large crude oil spill last month continues.The spill was first reported March 11 when the 165,000-gallon-spill was found coming from a Marathon Pipe Line buried near Cahokia Creek. Some of the spill reached the water prompting a massive cleanup effort, including some oil drenched wildlife.Crews have been working non-stop on cleanup since the spill, especially on the land closest to where the ruptured pipe was repaired. Dump trucks were transporting dozens of loads of clean dirt to the site Tuesday. Officials have said it will likely take months to complete the entire cleanup of the area.
Michigan group: Oil pipeline tunnel plan not in sync with state's climate goals - This Earth Month, Michigan leaders took the opportunity to release a new roadmap for a carbon-neutral state economy by 2050. In addition to highlighting state agencies' plans to power state-owned buildings and facilities with renewables, reduce energy usage, electrify vehicles and offer more recycling services, the plan calls for action from local governments, businesses and institutions, communities and individual households.Sean McBrearty, Michigan legislative and policy director for Clean Water Action, said the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change makes a clear case there is no time to waste. "The impacts we're already going to see from climate change are extreme," McBrearty asserted. "To avoid the absolute worst impacts of climate change, we need to decarbonize now. " McBrearty is also campaign coordinator for the coalition Oil and Water Don't Mix, which advocates for shutting down the Line 5 dual pipelines running through the Straits of Mackinac. Enbridge Energy has said there is currently no alternative to deliver the energy Line 5 transports, and it would take significant energy to build infrastructure to do so. McBrearty countered experts have testified before the Michigan Public Service Commission, pointing out a plan to build a tunnel around the pipeline would add 27 million metric tons of carbon pollution to Michigan's output, which is not in line with the state's overall goals set out in the Michigan Healthy Climate roadmap.
"It makes no sense when we're trying to address the climate crisis to spend any amount of time building an oil tunnel underneath the Great Lakes that's going to add the equivalent of 10 coal-fired power plants to the carbon load already in Michigan," McBrearty contended.
DOE Secretary Granholm Refuses to Answer Pipeline Prosperity Question at Hearing - Former governor of Michigan now serving as Joe Biden’s Secretary at the Department of Energy, Jennifer Granholm, would not answer a question about what economic impact the Line 5 pipeline has on the state at a House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy hearing on Thursday. “Would you say that Line 5 [pipeline] plays a massive economic impact on the state of Michigan?” Rep. Bob Latta (R-OH) asked Jennifer Granholm at the hearing. “I’m not going to respond to that one,” Granholm said. “You’re not going to respond to that?” Latta asked. “No, I’m not going to get into that because it’s in court,” Granholm said, referring to the ongoing litigation in Michigan over Democrat Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s attempts to shut down the pipeline. “When I’ve talked to people in the state of Michigan and the state of Ohio they said it does have a major economic impact,” Latta said. According to the website of Enbridge, the company behind Line 5, the pipe has operated for decades without a leak and provides abundant energy to the state of Michigan: The products moved on Line 5 heat homes and businesses, fuel vehicles, and power industry in the state of Michigan. Line 5 supplies 65% of propane demand in the Upper Peninsula, and 55% of Michigan’s statewide propane needs. Overall, Line 5 transports up to 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light crude oil, light synthetic crude, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are refined into propane. Built in 1953 by the Bechtel Corporation to meet extraordinary design and construction standards, the Line 5 Straits of Mackinac crossing remains in excellent condition, and has never experienced a leak in more than 65 years of operation. The Line 5 crossing features an exceptional and incredibly durable enamel coating, and pipe walls that are three times as thick—a minimum of 0.812 inches—as those of a typical pipeline. What’s more, the Bechtel Corporation—renowned for the iconic Hoover Dam—designed and built Line 5 in an area of the Straits that would minimize potential corrosion due to lack of oxygen and the cold water temperature. This setting contributes to preserving the integrity of Line 5, which has enabled it to serve the region safely and reliably for more than six decades. In an article on the MLive Media Group website, critics of the stance of environmentalists and Whitmer said shutting down the pipeline is counter to what is beneficial to the state and its residents. “The state’s ongoing legal maneuvering and attempt to force a shutdown of Line 5 runs contrary to well-established legal principles and jeopardizes Michigan’s energy security, economy and efforts to strengthen environmental protections along with that of Canada, our fellow Great Lakes states and entire nation – all at a time when we can least afford it,” Jim Holcomb, president and chief executive officer for the Michigan Chamber, said in the article.
Energy Dept OKs expanded LNG exports from Texas, Louisiana - — The Energy Department on Wednesday authorized additional exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from planned terminals in Texas and Louisiana.The orders allow Golden Pass LNG Terminal near Port Arthur, Texas, and Magnolia LNG Terminal in Lake Charles, Louisiana, to export additional natural gas as LNG to any country not prohibited by U.S. law or policy.The $10 billion Golden Pass LNG export project is expected be operational in 2024, with Magnolia coming online by 2026. The two terminals are expected to produce more than 3 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day.The approvals come as the United States seeks to boost LNG exports to Europe amid Russia's war with Ukraine. The Energy Department approved expanded permits for two other LNG terminals in Texas and Louisiana last month.Cheniere Energy Inc. said its Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and its Corpus Christi plant in Texas have been improved and are making more gas than covered by previous export permits.Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said last month that the U.S. “is exporting every molecule of liquefied natural gas that we can” to helpEuropean buyers of Russian fuel.U.S. LNG exports have reached new highs of about 12 billion cubic feet per day and are expected to grow to more than 13 billion cubic feet by the end of the year, with most going to Europe, the Energy Department said.The U.S. and its allies also have released oil from their strategic reserves to counter Russia’s aggression. The U.S. has banned imports of Russian oil. The U.S. and other countries “will act quickly to hedge against energy disruptions,’’ Granholm said at the International Energy Agency’s ministerial meeting in Paris. “We will not allow Vladimir Putin to wedge our nations apart.”
How Much Oil Did The Government Release From The SPR? April 23, 2022 -- So much oil is going to be released from the SPR that the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (the LOOP) is designating segregated storage capacity for crude deliveries from the US SPR beginning in May. I guess this is being done to make bookkeeping easier and to facilitate exporting oil from our strategic reserves to China and India. It took decades to fill the SPR and now in six months, half of it will be gone. Link here. Having said all that, the release is a non-issue. Even after the release there will still be more in storage than required by law, and Congress can change that requirement any time.
US refiners set for strong start to 2022 as fuel prices surge worldwide, -US oil refiners expect strong first-quarter earnings as margins to sell gasoline and diesel strengthened due to a steep dropoff in refining capacity and crude oil supplies tightened because of Russia's war with Ukraine. Refining capacity worldwide has dropped during the coronavirus pandemic, with several less profitable oil refineries closing in the last two years. However, worldwide fuel demand has rebounded to near pre-pandemic levels, boosting profits for facilities that are still operating. Seven US independent refining companies are projected to post earnings-per-share of 61 cents, compared with a loss of $1.32 in first quarter of 2021, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Profit margins for making both gasoline and distillates - diesel, jet fuel and heating oil - were already at their highest in several years coming into 2022, and have since risen, with the heating oil crack spread at nearly $41 per barrel by the end of March, nearly $20 more than average over the past five years. US independent refiners including Marathon Petroleum Corp , Valero Energy Corp and Phillips 66 also benefited from a surge in natural gas prices in Europe which occurred due to the risk of European sanctions on Russian energy exports. Valero kicks off refinery earnings on Tuesday; Phillips reports on Friday, with Marathon the following week. Natural gas is needed to operate various units of oil refineries and the expense caused some European refineries to cut runs, particularly distillate-producing units. This contributed to a sharp fall in distillate inventories worldwide, putting a premium on production of diesel and jet fuel. "Geopolitical dynamics should support US refiners on wide natural gas spreads, though some impacts may be less visible with first quarter earnings than in future quarters,"
In Texas, some fines paid by polluters benefit the fossil fuel industry -- After a Taiwanese plastics and petrochemical company leaked harmful gasses from its chemical plant in the Gulf Coast town of Point Comfort in 2021, Texas’ environmental agency fined it nearly $267,000. Instead of paying the entire fine to the state, Formosa — which uses fossil fuels to create plastics — sent half the money to the Texas Natural Gas Foundation, a nonprofit entity that promotes natural gas to the public.Texas state law allows polluters to divert some of their fines that normally go to the state’s general revenue fund to “supplemental environmental projects,” or SEPs. The Texas Natural Gas Foundation has qualified as an SEP since 2016.In theory, SEPs are meant to remediate industrial pollution and environmental harm by funding programs like cleanups at illegal dump sites, habitat restoration or household hazardous waste pickups in communities.Public documents obtained by Floodlight show that SEPs like the one with the Texas Natural Gas Foundation can directly benefit the companies that are being penalized — by paying to staff and run industry programs.According to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality’s description of the Texas Natural Gas Foundation’s SEP, the nonprofit aims to raise $8 million to replacestate government-owned diesel trucks and buses with new gas vehicles that the foundation argues are cleaner. Several school districts receive SEP funding for similar bus replacement projects. But by allowing entities like the Texas Natural Gas Foundation to receive state funds, Texas is allowing the fossil fuel industry to reshuffle money back to itself, public documents show.“You get back to this policy question [of] is [TCEQ] putting SEP dollars into the hands of a marketing organization that is using those dollars to create further demand for natural gas?” said James Bradbury, an environmental lawyer and professor at Texas A&M University School of Law.
Kinder Morgan to Expand Natural Gas Compression as Permian Takeaway Constraints Loom - Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) is planning compression expansions on its Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) and Gulf Coast Express (GCX) natural gas pipelines in order to alleviate takeaway constraints in the Permian Basin expected to mount by 2023. “Combined, the two expansions can add 1.2 Bcf per day of capacity out of the Permian,” CEO Steven Kean told analysts during a conference call to discuss first-quarter earnings.Once a final investment decision (FID) is taken, KMI estimates the expansions could be in service within 18 months, meaning they may be online as soon as 4Q2023, management said.“We believe the market will need that capacity in that timeframe and see one or both of these expansions as the near-term solution, pushing out our potential greenfield third pipeline further in time,” Kean explained.Achieving a 2023 in-service date “will really help alleviate a containment issue that we’re starting to see now and certainly expect to get much worse as we get into 2023,” said KMI’s Tom Martin, president of natural gas pipelines.Martin said the firm expects a greenfield pipeline to be needed in the Permian by 2026, “which would lend itself toward” an FID by “sometime early next year with that kind of a project.”In addition, KMI is looking into a small-scale expansion at its Elba Island liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, Martin said. While it’s still early days in terms of greenlighting an expansion, “the market opportunity suggests there may be something worth looking at,” he told analysts.“This crisis has demonstrated the continued dependence of the world on fossil fuels, especially natural gas, and the inability to develop a satisfactory substitute in the short to intermediate term,” said executive chairman Rich Kinder. “This situation is illustrated by the frantic efforts of Europe to wean itself from its overwhelming reliance on Russian natural gas.”He added, “I anticipate that all of our present LNG export facilities will be running at capacity for the foreseeable future, and the contracts necessary to support the construction of new facilities in the next few years will be more attainable than they’ve been in the past.”Although the Biden administration recently granted approval for two liquefaction expansion projects on the Gulf Coast, Kinder warned that LNG projects could still be bogged down by permitting delays.“By way of caution, I’m still concerned that our federal government will not properly expedite the permitting of these new facilities, but I’m reasonably hopeful that at some point this administration will recognize the importance of playing its energy card to support its allies and sanction its adversaries,” Kinder said.
The Permian Basin Oil Field Is Running Out of Workers, Materials—and Cash --MIDLAND, Texas—America’s most prolific oil field is running out of the workers, cash and equipment needed to produce more oil. In the Permian Basin, the sprawling oil-rich region in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, drillers are facing long delays and steep competition for everything from roughnecks to steel to fracking pumps.The region is the only place where U.S. crude production is expected to grow significantly this year, and the Biden administration is hoping production there can help alleviate high prices at the pump . But mounting supply-chain crunches are putting a ceiling on how much more frackers can produce there , said energy executives and analysts, despite the highest oil prices in roughly seven years. Unlike the last time oil fetched about $100 a barrel, the vast service industry of steel suppliers, drilling-rig operators
New study shows New Mexico has seen an increase in oil spills -According to a new study by the Center for Western Priorities, oil and gas companies spilled over 658,000 gallons of oil in New Mexico last year from a total of 1,368 spills. That’s significantly higher than the 1,269 spills in 2020. Officials are attributing the lower numbers in 2020 to the pandemic and now things are returning to normal, and so is oil production. “What we’re trying to do is, you know, encourage operators to look at, their operations holistically,” said ENMRD Oil Conservation Division Direction Adrienne Sandoval. She said that would encourage companies to take preventative measures beforehand. “What we have found is that if we trend all of the spill data a lot of times these spills are preventable, so we want to encourage operators to take a look at their operations, put preventative mechanisms in place so that, we’re preventing these spills upfront rather than having to clean them up on the backend,” said Sandoval. Sandoval said the state recently adopted new rules to eliminate pollution from oil and gas. “The OCD changed our spill rules in 2021, which went into effect at the end of the year and it changed small wording that spills are now unlawful,” said Sandoval. The new regulations would slap violators with immediate fines and bans routine flaring, which is the burning of excess gas.Critics say the new rules are too demanding for small oil producers. State Representative Jim Townsend (R), who represents much of southern New Mexico, said the companies he’s worked with have always put safety first by thinking of the community.
DJ Basin Unconventional (Civitas Resources Inc) CO Unconventional Oil Field, US DJ Basin Unconventional CO is a producing unconventional oil field located onshore the US and is operated by Civitas Resources. The field is owned by Civitas Resources.The DJ Basin Unconventional CO unconventional oil field with peak production expected in 2022. The peak production was approximately 89.98 thousand bpd of crude oil and condensate, 375 Mmcfd of natural gas and 49.28 thousand bpd of natural gas liquids. Based on economic assumptions, production will continue until the field reaches its economic limit in 2022. Total Production, boed220,000-40,000-20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000300,000250,000200,000150,00050,000-50,000-100,000L20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Value Civitas Resources Inc (Civitas Resources), formerly Bonanza Creek Energy Inc is an exploration and production company, engaged in the acquisition, extraction and development of oil and related liquids which are rich in natural gas. It extracts minerals using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The company uses horizontal drilling methods for exploration and production of oil and natural gas and hydraulic fracturing to crack rock formation. Bonanza Creek is developing the Niobrara B Bench, the Niobrara C Bench, and the Codell formation in wattenberg field. It has assets and operations in Wattenberg Field, Colorado. Bonanza Creek is headquartered in Denver, Colorado, the US.
Search Ongoing For Suspect Who Shot At Fracking Company Truck In Weld County – CBS Denver – The Weld County Sheriff’s Office says someone shot a truck on Colorado Highway 52 early on April 22. They say the shooting appears random, but they want to find the suspect. Authorities say a man driving a truck belonging to a fracking company was driving eastbound on CO 52 when he thought he heard a loud “backfire.” He told deputies he thought it came from a vehicle heading in the opposite direction between Weld County Roads 37 and 43.When the man got to his worksite, he saw the driver’s door had a large bullet hole and the bullet after it fell on the ground when he opened the door.There were no reports of injuries.Now, deputies are looking for more information about a light-colored sedan. However, further details have not been released.
Climate activist's fight against 'terrorism' sentence could impact the future of protests - In the fall of 2016, under the cover of darkness, Jessica Reznicek had a singular focus: to halt the construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline. At valve sites across America's heartland, she snuck through security fences, set fire to equipment, and used chemicals to burn holes in the pipeline itself.To Reznicek, a veteran climate activist, the damage was justified: a nonviolent act of civil disobedience in pursuit of saving the planet. The Justice Department saw it differently. After Reznicek publicly acknowledged her crimes and entered a guilty plea, federal prosecutors subsequently persuaded a judge to apply a sentencing increase known as the "terrorism enhancement" against her, putting her behind bars for eight years. The enhancement was applied "even though no person was ever hurt, no person was intended to be hurt, she wasn't charged with terrorism, and she didn't plead guilty to terrorism," said Bill Quigley, Reznicek's attorney and a professor emeritus at the Loyola University New Orleans Law School. "The terrorism enhancement doubled her amount of time in prison, which is troubling." Most frequently used against violent extremists or those with ties to foreign terrorist organizations, the terrorism enhancement is praised by national security officials and prosecutors as an effective tool of deterrence -- a stiff penalty meant to discourage others from engaging in similar behavior. But critics say the use of the enhancement against Reznicek reflects a broader push from the powerful oil industry to level harsh penalties against activists who target energy infrastructure.At a time when domestic violent extremism is on the rise, experts say Reznicek's appeal presents a fresh opportunity to reexamine how terrorism cases are prosecuted -- and who deserves to be labeled a terrorist.Long before Reznicek committed herself to a life of environmental activism, the Iowa native felt a deep connection to nature. In an interview with ABC News' Iowa affiliate, WOI, shortly after her sentencing, Reznicek described a childhood spent swimming in a local river, which she called her sanctuary."I've carried that love with me all my life," she said. "And I've also witnessed that desecration and the pollution that has occurred during my lifetime."She described a spiritual calling that eventually led her to fight the construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline, an oil conduit that would eventually run more than 1,000 miles from North Dakota to Illinois. Beginning in April 2016, thousands of Native American and environmental activists gathered to protest the project. Over time, Reznicek's actions grew increasingly dangerous."I entered the valve sites multiple times in multiple locations on multiple days," Reznicek told WOI. "Each time, there was a process of preparation for that, knowing full well what the legal consequences were." In public and in court, Reznicek admitted to her actions -- which included setting fire to multiple construction vehicles -- and encouraged others to follow suit. She never hurt another person and said she never targeted human life. But her actions led to a delay in the pipeline's construction and more than $3 million in damages.
Interior rule delays underscore Biden's energy challenge – The Biden administration is behind on the release of its highly anticipated oil and gas regulations for drilling on federal lands at a time when the politics of oil are increasingly tangled in partisan disagreements over climate and prices at the pump.Among the most closely watched delayed proposals are new methane rules for oil and natural gas operations on public lands, which are critical given their direct impact on drilling and emissions. They were due out last month.
But the Interior Department also hasn’t moved on several other proposed rulemakings on energy issues anticipated for early this year, such as new offshore regulations for high-pressure drilling, as well as those dealing with offshore oil spills and renewable energy.It’s not clear why the administration appears off target, but outside observers say the thorny politics of oil policy, the cumbersome reality of federal rulemaking and a mess of court battles the Biden administration is currently fighting over climate metrics and oil leasing could all play a role.The delays could hurt the Biden White House’s agenda if they linger too long, observers say. The methane rules, and other pending updates to federal energy policy, are the first steps for the Biden administration to creating its long-term legacy, potentially affecting the future of federal greenhouse gas emissions, drilling standards and environmental rules on public lands.Officials also face an increasingly narrow window to put their policies on the books. With midterm elections later this year, it’s possible GOP victories could lead to congressional obstacles to President Joe Biden’s executive actions, said Mark Squillace, a federal energy law expert at the University of Colorado Law School and a former special assistant to the Interior Department solicitor during the Clinton administration.“Of course, no one knows how the 2022 or 2024 elections are going to go yet, but [the administration] ought to be thinking about those things,” Squillace said. The administration’s pace is also drawing scrutiny because planned reforms are stacking up even as the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs’ regulatory agenda calls for Interior to move soon on additional high-profile updates to the federal oil program’s bonding rules, fees and royalty rates.
Biden raised fees on oil companies. But drillers might not pay - - The Biden administration is hiking the royalty rates that companies pay to extract oil and gas from public lands, framing the move as a balance between better returns for taxpayers and new drilling opportunities for energy companies. But two loopholes in President Joe Biden’s plan could allow drillers to pay the older, lower royalty rate. And the administration says only Congress can close them. Environmentalists, many of whom are unimpressed with Biden’s plan, say the royalty loopholes demonstrate that trying to reform federal oil and gas leasing is a dead end. Industry has spent a century shaping leasing laws to its benefit, they say, so anything short of a total drilling halt on public lands — which Biden promised during his campaign — empowers the oil and gas sector. “The way that industry has captured and shaped this law over several decades … is not easily unwound,” said Collin Rees, U.S. program manager for Oil Change International. This is an example, he added, of why Biden cannot hope to advance his climate and environmental justice goals by taking an “incrementalist, technocratic approach to issues that are fundamentally political.” Biden has moved to restart oil and gas leasing over 144,000 acres to address growing public concern over rising gasoline prices (Greenwire, April 15). The Bureau of Land Management plans to charge a 18.75 percent royalty rate for the new leases it sells, up from the statutory minimum of 12.5 percent. The administration says that’s a fairer return for the federal government, which set its royalty rate a century ago and now charges much less than many states, like Colorado (20 percent) or Texas (typically 20 percent to 25 percent). But that new federal royalty rate only covers leases sold competitively through auction. If the government offers leases that don’t receive bids, those so-called noncompetitive leases remain available for a flat fee. And if those noncompetitive leases ever produce oil or gas, the driller will only have to pay the old 12.5 percent royalty, according to BLM. About one-quarter of federal leases were acquired noncompetitively, according to data from 2003 to 2019 compiled by the Government Accountability Office. Furthermore, a leaseholder paying the new, higher royalty rate would have the ability to petition the Interior Department for a reduction or waiver of their royalties, if drilling becomes uneconomic. “Once in production, if a well becomes uneconomic at a royalty rate of 18.75%, the operator may petition for a royalty rate reduction under existing regulations,” the agency wrote in planning documents released this week on the new lease sales. By offering more oil and gas leases for sale, Biden is breaking a campaign promise — ending fossil fuel development on public lands — in hopes of taming higher energy prices. The administration says the higher royalty rate aligns with its goal of encouraging more drilling, in part because of those two carve-outs.
Oil prices may not drop even as companies drill more - Oil production is set to grow later this year, but it may not fully cure the price spikes caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, analysts and company executives said last week. Customer spending in North America is likely to increase by over 35 percent this year, Halliburton Co. CEO Jeff Miller said, up from the oil field service provider’s previous estimate of more than 25 percent. National oil companies in the Middle East also may increase their activity. “What’s key is we’re seeing them both at the same time,” Miller said on a conference call with analysts. Oil and natural gas prices hit their highest levels in more than a decade after Russia invaded Ukraine this year. The U.S. and the European Union promptly imposed economic sanctions on Russian companies, and a series of western oil companies said they were abandoning projects in Russia (Energywire, March 2). The price for domestic oil was about $120 a barrel before falling. AAA said the cost for regular U.S. gasoline hit a record average — not adjusted for inflation — of $4.33 a gallon on March 11. The average was $4.12 as of yesterday, AAA reported. High energy prices in turn have been driving inflation, which in the U.S. hit levels not seen since the 1980s. The Biden administration has committed to releasing 1 million barrels a day for six months from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and has coordinated releases from other countries (Energywire, April 4). The U.S. has added 257 drilling rigs in the past year, for a total of 695, according to Baker Hughes Co. The number of hydraulic fracturing crews has more than tripled to 70 in the last two years, according to the data firm Enverus. The uptick in drilling and fracking could push U.S. production up by 1 million barrels a day by the end of the year, said Al Salazar, vice president of intelligence at Enverus. But it still may not be enough to make up for the Russian production that’s been taken off the market by economic sanctions, he said. “The potential hole that has to be filled is pretty big,” Salazar said in an interview. Under those conditions, it’ll be hard for domestic oil prices to fall below $100 a barrel, he said. Demand for oil has started to fall in response to inflation and the ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China, according to the consulting firm Rystad Energy. Global consumption has fallen below the pre-pandemic high set in 2019, and it may not recover until 2023, the company said. Normally, a reduction in oil demand would push down prices, but “it’s not that simple,” Claudio Galimberti, Rystad’s senior vice president of analysis, said in an email. The drop will help avoid spikes in oil prices, but international grades of crude oil are likely to stay between $80 and $120 a barrel through the end of September, he said. Halliburton and its peers in the oil field service industry like Baker Hughes and Schlumberger Ltd. have argued the industry has underinvested in new oil and gas production since the price crash of 2014-2015. The oil field service providers are typically viewed as good predictors of trends in energy production. They provide the equipment and services that the industry relies on, and can see upticks in their orders long before new oil and gas start flowing.
Hess Giving 'Serious Consideration' to Adding Bakken Rig to Boost Oil Supply - U.S. independent Hess Corp. expects to add a fourth rig to its Bakken Shale activity by the end of this year, but the company continues to prioritize capital discipline. “As our portfolio becomes increasingly free cash flow positive in the coming years we commit to return up to 75% of our annual free cash flow to shareholders, with the remainder going to strengthen the balance sheet by increasing our cash position or further reducing our debt,” CEO John Hess said in an earnings call Wednesday. Given the strength of the oil market and the world’s need for more supply, he said the company “will give serious consideration to adding a fourth rig later this year” in the Bakken. Overall cash flow is expected to increase 25% annually in the 2021-2026 period, the CEO said. Hess fetched an average realized crude oil selling price, including the effect of hedging, of $86.75/bbl in 1Q2022, versus $50.02 in the prior-year quarter. The average realized natural gas liquids selling price was $39.79/bbl, compared with $29.49, while the average realized natural gas selling price was $5.28/Mcf, versus $4.90 a year earlier. Bakken net production was 152,000 boe/d in the first three months of this year, down from 158,000 boe/d in the year-ago period. The decline in output was attributed to winter storms, executives said. Hess drilled 19 wells and brought 30 new wells online in the Bakken during the quarter. In the second quarter, the company aims to drill 22 wells and to bring about 18 online. Because of operational issues related to winter weather, Bakken net production for this year is forecast to be near the bottom of the company’s previous guidance range of 160,000-165,000 boe/d. Production is expected to reach 175,000-180,000 boe/d during the fourth quarter.
Bakken Challenged by Labor Shortages, while Federal Auction Set for June --The Department of the Interior’s (DOI) Bureau of Land Management (BLM) plans to hold a lease sale on June 28 for 23 federally owned parcels spanning nearly 3,406 acres in Montana and North Dakota.The sale notice issued by BLM’s Montana/Dakotas state office is part of a larger plan announced at the federal level to hold auctions on 144,000 acres of government land in compliance with a court ruling. A federal judge in Louisiana last year ordered the resumption of federal onshore and offshore lease sales. The sales had been paused by the Biden administration. One Gulf of Mexico lease sale was held, but its results were invalidated by a federal court.The Montana/North Dakota lease sale notice incorporates recommendations from a DOI report on the federal oil and gas leasing program commissioned by Interior Secretary Dab Haaland.Changes include “a first-ever increased royalty rate of 18.75% for the leases sold in the current competitive lease sales, in keeping with rates charged by states and private landowners,” BLM said.The sale is “essentially a ditto of what was announced before and then canceled,” said Lynn Helms, director of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources, during a briefing with reporters on Tuesday.Despite the resumption of federal lease sales, Helms said that North Dakota intends to move forward with pending litigation against DOI in federal court seeking assurance of mandatory quarterly lease sales.Federal policies around leasing are not the only challenge facing North Dakota’s oilpatch, which is centered around the mighty Bakken Shale.In recent conversations with Bakken operators, Helms said he has mostly heard the same story, “that it’s difficult to get workforce. It is difficult to get capital.” As a result, Helms said operators that he’s spoken with are mostly forecasting 1-2% annual production growth. The operators are “not really starting that until the third quarter of this year,” according to Helms. While North Dakota has managed to add a few drilling rigs of late, “all but one of our drilling rig operators has moved 90%-plus of their iron to the Permian,” Helms said. “So the actual physical rigs, for the most part, aren’t here anymore.” An uptick in Williston Basin drilling helped the U.S. rig count inch two units higher for the week ended Friday (April 22), according to the latest tally from Baker Hughes Co. The one remaining rig operator “has significant inventory that they could deploy…However they’re finding that they can only hire and train up a crew about every two months. So you’re looking at [adding] six rigs a year in a best-case scenario that could be added between now and mid-2023. So we’re not going to see rapid growth.”
Oil pipeline project moving forward after pandemic slowed plans; North Dakota regulators set hearing -- Plans for a $122 million pipeline slated to carry Bakken oil toward a Wyoming hub are moving forward after the coronavirus pandemic stalled the project. Bridger Pipeline is building the 145-mile South Bend Pipeline from Johnsons Corner in McKenzie County to one of the company’s pipeline facilities in eastern Montana. The pipeline is expected to transport up to 105,000 barrels per day, with the potential to expand up to 250,000 barrels per day in the future. The North Dakota Public Service Commission is tasked with permitting pipelines and is slated to hold a hearing for the project on May 5 in Watford City. Bridger estimates construction will take at least six months, and the company aims to begin operating the pipeline by the end of the year, according to an application it filed with the PSC. South Bend would be the first major oil export pipeline built in North Dakota since Dakota Access began operating in 2017, said Justin Kringstad, director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority. Dakota Access is the largest oil pipeline in the state, transporting as much as 750,000 barrels per day from North Dakota to Illinois. North Dakota produces about 1.1 million barrels of oil each day. The oil industry has bounced back somewhat from a drop in production early on in the pandemic during 2020. The downturn made the South Bend project uneconomical at the time, but that’s since changed, according to Bridger spokesperson Bill Salvin. “There are producers bringing wells online, and they need a reliable way to bring this crude to market,” he said. “This allows us to do that.” South Bend is part of what’s been dubbed the “Bridger Expansion,” which includes two new pipelines. Bridger in 2020 completed the Equality Pipeline that runs from Hulett in northeastern Wyoming to Guernsey, an oil hub farther south in that state. Oil carried through South Bend is expected to eventually arrive in Guernsey before moving elsewhere. “This pipeline will be part of the only direct route for Bakken oil to the trading hub in Cushing, Oklahoma,” Bridger said in its application. The Oklahoma town is home to one of the country’s largest oil hubs.
Bridger pipeline would carry 105,000 barrels per day of Bakken crude to Baker, Montana - Bridger Pipeline, a subsidiary of True Companies, is proposing to build an 147-mile pipeline that will land just a few miles outside of Baker, Montana. The line would initially carry up to 105,000 barrels of crude oil per day from North Dakota, but could increase to as much as 250,000 barrels per day. From Baker, the oil would head to Guernsey, Wyoming, for further marketing and national transport. It will provide an important pipeline alternative for taking crude oil to markets in the West instead of using truck and rail options, Bridger wrote in its permit application with the North Dakota Public Service Commission. It will also allow Bakken crude oil to access a wider range of markets. North Dakota Pipeline Authority Justin Kringstad said the continued investment in pipeline systems for the Bakken is an encouraging sign. “North Dakota’s oil production is expected to increase in the coming years, and having a robust pipeline system to diversified markets will strengthen North Dakota’s ability to meet growing demand around the United States and with allies internationally,” he said. Baker, Montana happens to be the same location where TC Energy had proposed an on-ramp for about 100,000 barrels of Bakken crude on its now abandoned Keystone XL pipeline. Bridger’s 147-mile, 16-inch crude oil pipeline would originate at the Eighty Eight Oil Company’s existing Johnson’s Corner Terminal in North Dakota and end at Bridger’s existing sandstone Station, which is 8.5 miles west of Baker. It will Las interconnect with Bridger facilities at the Bicentennial Station and Wilson Station. About 81 miles of the transmission pipeline are in North Dakota. That portion will cost $61 million. The project will include some aboveground facilities, including pipeline markers, rectifier sites, pig launcher and receivers, block valves and small fenced-in enclosures along the route to house power, communication, and control systems to allow valves to be operated remotely. The state’s Public Service Commission has set a hearing for the proposed pipeline at 9 a.m. May 5 at Teddy’s Residential Suites in Watford City. Bridger Pipeline was responsible for a 2015 oil spill that released an estimated 758 barrels of oil into the Yellowsonte River. The company settled a civil suit last year with Montana, agreeing to pay $2 million to recover natural resource damages caused by the spill near Glendive, Montana. Of that amount, $1.7 million went to a natural resources damages fund managed by the state, while the rest went to a U.S. Department of the Interior fund aimed at recovering costs of damage to natural resources. The $2 million was on top of a $1 million fine for the same spill collected b the Montana Department of Environmental Quality. The company also paid $80,000 toward spill response, cleanup and site management work by Montana DEQ as well as $100,000 for monitoring equipment at Glendive’s water treatment facility. The 2015 spill was caused by a weld that split open, allowing oil to leak into the river 7 miles above Glendive. Ice and snow at the time complicated efforts to contain and clean the spill, allowing some oil to travel downstream rapidly before it was contained. An oil sheen from the spill was reported as far away as the Williston area, which shut its water system down to prevent any contamination of the water supply. Bridger is owned by True Companies, which also owns Black Hills Trucking, fined by North Dakota regulators for dumping produced water and lacking a waste-hauling permit.
Chevron's profit quadruples in the first quarter as higher oil and gas prices boost operations - Chevron's profit more than quadrupled during the first quarter of 2022, as higher oil and gas prices boosted the company's results. The oil giant reported $6.3 billion in earnings during the period up from $1.37 billion during the same quarter in 2021. Chevron's revenue rose to $54.37 billion, up from $32.03 billion during the first quarter of 2021. Chevron's results follow a surge in commodity prices. West Texas Intermediate crude futures spiked to $130.50 in early March, a price last seen in 2008 as Russia's invasion sparked supply fears. International benchmark Brent nearly hit $140, also the highest since 2008. Prices have since cooled, but are still sitting above $100, boosting energy companies' operations. "Chevron is doing its part to grow domestic supply with U.S. oil and gas production up 10 percent over first quarter last year," CEO Michael Wirth said in a statement. Shares of Chevron were flat during premarket trading. On an adjusted basis the oil giant earned $3.36 per share. It was not clear whether Chevron exceeded expectations. Wall Street was expecting the company to earn $3.27 per share on $47.94 billion in revenue, according to estimates compiled by Refinitiv.
California Regulators Banned Fracking Wastewater for Irrigation, but Allow Wastewater From Oil --California prohibits farmers from growing crops with chemical-laced wastewater from fracking. Yet the state still allows them to use water produced by conventional oil drilling—a chemical soup that contains many of the same toxic compounds.When rumors spread several years ago that California was growing some of the nation’s nuts, citrus and vegetables with wastewater produced from hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking, regulators said that would be illegal.Advances in fracking, a process that injects high-pressure chemical mixtures and sand into underground rock formations to stimulate the release of fossil fuels, revolutionized oil and gas extraction in the United States. But it alarmed environmental, public health and consumer groups, who were concerned that the massive quantities of highly toxic wastewater produced during fracking posed unacceptable threats to groundwater, ecosystems and communities. California quickly moved to regulate fracking, and water regulators ruled that wastewater from fracking could not be used to irrigate crops, acknowledging that the extractive chemicals might taint the crops grown in the water. But those same regulators have for years allowed farmers to irrigate nearly 100,000 acres of nuts, citrus and vegetables with wastewater from conventional oil drilling, even though many of the same chemicals are used in fracking and detected in fracking wastewater, a review of chemical disclosure lists and scientific studies by Inside Climate News has found. To cope with California’s perpetual droughts, state officials encourage recycling of water whenever possible, and have relied on oil field wastewater to help Kern County’s $7.6 billion agricultural industry stay afloat. But scientists said in interviews that the state’s distinction between the two types of “produced water” is essentially meaningless. “It doesn’t matter from a chemical perspective if you’re hydraulically fracturing something or you’re doing even the most pedestrian, old-school oil production techniques,” said Seth Shonkoff, an expert on the health and climate impacts of oil and gas development and executive director of Physicians, Scientists and Engineers (PSE) for Healthy Energy. “Everything uses chemicals. And a lot of the chemicals are exactly the same.” An Inside Climate News analysis cross-referenced lists of chemicals that oil companies reported using in California to operate conventional oil wells with those reported by frackers in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and found many of the same chemicals. And research over the past several years has found that mixing chemicals together, as happens with both types of drilling, greatly elevates toxicity.
Will California ban offshore oil drilling?- Six months after a busted ocean floor pipeline leaked 25,000 gallons of crude oil into the waters off the coast of Huntington Beach, lawmakers today will vote on a bill that could end offshore oil and gas activity in state waters by 2024. Senate Bill 953 by Costa Mesa Democratic Sen. Dave Min is a direct response to the oil spill, which shut down beaches from Orange County to San Diego in October and renewed calls from progressives to further stem Caifornia’s oil and gas production. The bill gets its first hearing in the Senate Natural Resources and Water Committee this morning, but faces opposition from groups that say an end to offshore drilling will only increase California’s reliance on foreign oil imports, creating a higher risk of spills. Once upon a time, the state had more than 50 oil and gas leases, most of them issued between 1938 and 1958. The state hasn’t issued any new leases for offshore drilling since a massive spill near Santa Barbara in 1969, but 11 of those decades-old leases are still ongoing — and would be shut down under the proposed law. In general, these leases continue so long as the platforms are producing oil. But after the Orange County spill, Min wants the state’s State Lands Commission to take steps to end them for good. “We must end offshore drilling off the coast of California now,” Min said at the unveiling in February. “Not in 5 years, or 10 years or after the next major oil spill. Now.” Originally SB 953 had directed the commission to negotiate terminations by the end of 2023. But as POLITICO’s Colby Bermel reported last week, the bill was recently amended to give fossil fuel companies an extra year to negotiate the terms and make sure the state wasn’t violating the Takings Clause, a federal requirement that the government not acquire private property without paying for its value. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s support could prove critical on this bill, which unsurprisingly faces industry opposition. But despite exorciating the “damn platforms” after last year’s oil spill, the governor hasn’t publicly backed SB 953. Min in October told POLITICO that the Newsom administration had cautioned him about the money and logistics involved with halting all drilling in state waters.
Pregnant women living near natural gas sites experience higher rates of depression, substance use: Study -- Women living close to natural gas operations – as well as the economic boom towns that often spring up around them – experienced higher rates of depression and substance use during pregnancy, according to a new study.The study, published in the International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health, focused on more than 6,300 women who gave birth in northeastern British Columbia, an area known for its natural gas industry.“Living near natural gas operations has been associated with an array of negative health outcomes, but little is known about the potential impact on maternal mental health,” says Élyse Caron-Beaudoin, an assistant professor in the department of health and society and one of the study’s authors.“This adds to a growing body of evidence that living near unconventional natural gas operations is linked to adverse health outcomes.” The study included women who gave birth at Fort St. John Hospital, the largest hospital in northeastern British Columbia, over a 10-year period. Mental health data came from the local health network while information about substance use came from a self-reported questionnaire.The research team estimated exposure to natural gas operations by using the distribution of wells in four zones around the participants’ postal codes that extended 2.5, 5, 10 and 50 kilometres, respectively. Caron-Beaudoin says there are many potential reasons why living close to these operations can lead to higher rates of depression and substance use. While exposure to chemicals might be a factor, she says natural gas operations in general are highly disruptive to a community. The area of B.C. involved in the study was once predominantly known for agriculture but has since been transformed by the oil and gas boom. This has resulted in a flood of people moving into the community, which has driven up the cost of living. Caron-Beaudoin points to research done on oil and gas boom towns in the U.S. that experienced increases in violent crimes, alcohol and substance use, as well as other community health crises. Many of the communities were not equipped to handle these challenges due to a lack of social services, she says. “There is a big disturbance in the social fabric of those communities,” she says. “Studies in the U.S. identified higher levels of anxiety and a loss of community cohesion among residents because their communities were upended.”In northeastern B.C., natural gas is extracted using a technique called hydraulic fracturing, often referred to as “fracking.” However, some of the chemicals used in fracking operations are toxic and can contaminate the surrounding air, water and soil. Recently, a study from the University of Calgary found that proximity to fracking operations was associated with greater risk of preterm birth in Alberta. This echoes findings on birth outcomes in northeastern B.C. published last year by Caron-Beaudoin.“It’s concerning that important policy decisions are being made with such a blatant lack of knowledge and information,” she says.The area of northeastern B.C. where the study participants were located will also be home to a massive new gas plant that could significantly increase the number of wells in the near future.“Fracking operations in particular have completely changed the landscape of oil and gas extraction, but we don’t have a lot of Canadian-based research on the public health impacts of this industry. It’s time for that to change.”
Biden closes half of NPR-A acreage to oil drilling - Alaska Public Media - The Bureau of Land Management announced Monday that it is ditching a Trump administration plan for the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and instead will revert to managing the area according to a 2013 plan crafted by the Obama administration. The move closes millions of acres in the NPR-A to potential oil drilling. The 2013 plan is especially protective of Teshekpuk Lake, a large wetlands important to shorebirds, loons and caribou. But the BLM says the decision still leaves nearly 12 million acres available for oil and gas leasing. That’s slightly more than 50% of the NPR-A. The Trump administration had wanted closer to 80% open to drilling. There was never a lease sale under Trump’s plan. The Biden administration indicated in January it was considering reversing the Trump-era policy, drawing outrage from Alaska’s congressional delegation. “Sweeping restrictions like this — which are being imposed even as the Biden administration implores OPEC+ to produce more oil — demonstrate everything that is wrong with its energy policies,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski said in a news release in January. The NPR-A is roughly the size of Indiana and is the country’s largest unit of public land. Environmental groups prefer to call it the Western Arctic. Several environmental groups quickly issued statements praising the decision. But the Arizona-based Center for Biological Diversity said the decision doesn’t go far enough because it still allows new Arctic drilling. “Addressing the climate emergency means ending new fossil fuel extraction, and we can’t keep going in the opposite direction,” Kristen Monsell, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in an emailed statement. While the Trump administration’s plan called for allowing oil development in most of the NPR-A, it also had leasing restrictions aimed at, among other things, reducing the impact on the land surface and limiting activity during certain seasons.
Biden administration shrinks area eligible for drilling at Arctic reserve - The Biden administration is shrinking the amount of land eligible for drilling at an oil reserve in the Arctic. The administration announced on Monday that it would return to an Obama administration plan that would enable the government to lease up to 52 percent of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska for oil and gas exploration. It reverses a Trump-era plan that would have opened up 82 percent of the reserve. While the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) had previously indicated that it had selected the Obama administration’s plan as its “preferred alternative” for further consideration, on Monday it issued a Record of Decision formally affirming that it would return to the Obama-era plan. The National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska is an approximately 23 million-acre area in Alaska’s north slope. In 1923, then-President Harding set the area aside as an emergency oil reserve for the Navy. It was later transferred to the bureau, which can sell leases for companies to drill for oil there. The move comes as the Biden administration is grappling with high gasoline prices and Republican criticism over its energy policies, but Monday’s move is not expected to have any immediate impacts on gasoline prices at the pump. When a lease sale is held, it takes more than four years on average for companies to begin production. The new decision represents an even earlier step in the process, designating what lands are eligible for lease. In addition to shrinking the amount of land available for lease, returning to the 2013 plan also reinstates protections for certain areas of particular environmental significance. One such area that will regain protections is Teshekpuk Lake, which the Biden administration document said is “of critical importance for nesting, breeding, and molting waterfowl and the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd.” In explaining its rationale, the administration said that it would better protect the environment while still allowing energy development. Specifically it said that it provides “greater protections to environmental values and subsistence uses in the NPR-A while still allowing for oil and gas exploration and development consistent with BLM’s management responsibilities.” During its tenure, the Trump administration pushed to expand Arctic drilling both at the petroleum reserve and, more controversially, in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Vaca Muerta Natural Gas Pipeline Advances as Regional Market Tightens - Argentine officials last week celebrated the launch of the Néstor Kirchner pipeline to bring natural gas from the Vaca Muerta shale deposit to capital Buenos Aires.“Here in Argentina we have natural gas for another 200 years, and gas is the energy that the world has decided will be the transition fuel to renewable energies,” President Alberto Fernández said during an official ceremony from Neuquén province. He was flanked by company CEOs and local politicians.Fernández said the new pipeline would give the country “energy peace of mind.”Argentine state firm Integración Energética Argentina (Ieasa) is in charge of the project. Ieasa head Agustín Gerez reportedly said the project would be tendered in mid-May with construction to begin in September. In-service is targeted for 2023.Vaca Muerta is one of the biggest shale resources in the world, but development has been slowed by financing, infrastructure and regulatory challenges. Despite the resource, this upcoming Southern Cone winter Argentina faces a widening gas deficit and will need to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) and additional volumes from Bolivia.“We need to distribute gas throughout all of Argentina” and “take gas to every corner,” said the president.The $3.4 billion pipeline will be carried out in two stages. The $1.5 billion, 24 million cubic meters/day (Mm3/d) first stage is to run from Tratayen in Neuquén to Salliqueló in Buenos Aires province. It would be key in allowing more natural gas from the Vaca Muerta shale formation to reach demand centers. A second stage would redirect gas to the north to replace Bolivian imports.Energy minister Darío Martinez called the pipeline “the most important gas transport project in 40 years.” The infrastructure would also allow for seasonal exports of natural gas to regional neighbors Chile, Uruguay and Brazil, he said.
Can Colombia’s Offshore Oil Potential Rival That Of Brazil? The strife-torn Latin American nation of Colombia punches well above its weight when it comes to petroleum production. The Andean country is the region’s third-largest oil producer, even after experiencing a significant deterioration in industrial productivity since the COVID-19 pandemic arrived, despite only having proven oil reserves of 1.8 billion barrels. Colombia has not had any major oil discoveries in over a decade, placing ever greater pressure on the country’s scant reserves and its soil-dependent economy. A solution planned by presidential candidate leftist senator Gustavo Petro, who is leading the polls (Spanish) for the May 2022 election, is to end oil exploration while building other more economically productive industries, notably agriculture and manufacturing. The current hard-right government of President Ivan Duque, protégé of former President Alvaro Uribe, who is credited with reasserting Bogota’s control over Colombia’s national territory, 2021 doubled down on offshore petroleum exploration. There is a belief that Colombia possesses similar offshore petroleum potential to Brazil, which if correct would be a game-changer for the Andean country’s struggling oil industry and hydrocarbon-dependent economy. Brazil’s massive offshore pre-salt oil boom located primarily in the Atlantic Ocean’s Santos and Campos Basins catapulted the country to Latin America’s leading crude oil producer. There are signs that Colombia’s coastal waters hold considerable petroleum potential with four recognized offshore basins along the Caribbean coast and a further situated on the Pacific coast. Offshore oil exploration and production holds many advantages over onshore crude oil operations in Colombia. Key are the risks associated with a volatile onshore security environment and deteriorating social license with most local communities opposed to nearby industry operations. Rising cocaine production is fueling conflict among myriad illegal armed groups that predominantly operate in remote regions where there are significant petroleum industry operations. The Putumayo Basin, which is Colombia’s second-highest producing basin, like the Catatumbo region near the Venezuelan border that encompasses part of the Llanos Basin, the epicenter of Colombia’s oil industry, is riven by conflict. Illegal armed groups in those regions are battling for control of lucrative coca cropping territory and smuggling routes. Pipelines bombings and illegal taps for the theft of petroleum, which is rising, remain constant hazards for onshore operations adding to the risk of production outages and higher transport costs. The decline of the petroleum industry’s social license is responsible for community blockades and invasions of oilfields as well as legal action by various civil society groups. Thelatest legal action (Spanish) impeding onshore petroleum industry operations is the first court of Barrancabermeja suspending the environmental licenses for the Kale and Platero hydraulic fracturing pilots. Fracking, which is a highly controversial technique for extracting petroleum in Colombia, is blocked by a moratorium imposed by the country’s highest administrative tribunal the State Council, although this does not prevent pilot projects. Court order requires the operator, Colombia’s national oil company Ecopetrol, to suspend operations and engage in consultation with the Afro-Wilches community in the municipality of Puerto Wilches, located in the Llanos Basin. Those issues coupled with the considerable uncertainty surrounding unconventional hydrocarbon exploitation in Colombia as well as a dearth of conventional discoveries are deterring onshore investment by energy majors. In fact, in late-2020 U.S. driller, Occidental Petroleum sold its onshore Colombian oil assets but retained its offshore interests. It is estimated that Colombia’s offshore Caribbean hydrocarbon basins could hold anywhere up to 32 billion barrels of crude oil, or roughly 16-times the Andean country’s current proven reserves. That makes their exploitation an important step required to reinvigorate Colombia’s petroleum industry and expand production to the all-important target of 1 million barrels per day. Colombia’s offshore Caribbean hydrocarbon basins are attracting considerable attention. Since 2015 Ecopetrol has reported a series of hydrocarbon discoveries along the Caribbean coast, helping to confirm the considerable oil and natural gas potential thought to exist in the region.
Thousands of litres of diesel spilled near Galapagos Islands -State-run oil firm Petroecuador has confirmed a ship carrying diesel fuel sank on Saturday off one of Ecuador’s ecologically sensitive Galapagos Islands.Local authorities assumed that nearly 7,500 litres of diesel were on board the ship at the time of the accident.The company said as part of an emergency plan, containments booms were set up around the area of the oil spill in a bid to control it and mitigate the impact of the shipwreck.The Galapagos National Park said there was a presence of a fuel stain at several points of the bay and the water activities were suspended at some sites.Galapagos Islands are a protected wildlife area and home to unique species of flora and fauna.The area is also home to giant tortoises. Petroecuador added that it has been decided as a preventive measure to carry out an additional control on all vessels that come to supply fuel.
Dow Chemical Touts Advantages of Natural Gas Availability, Joins Germany LNG Project -Management at global petrochemical giant Dow Chemical Co. said Thursday that manufacturing sites with access to shale natural gas resources enjoyed a favorable position during the first quarter of 2022. “Natural gas has been stubbornly high,” said CEO Jim Fitterland during Dow’s earnings call for the first quarter of 2022. “It was higher than last year before the Russia-Ukraine incident and then, obviously, then that drove it quite a bit higher.”But in spite of rising raw material and energy costs, Dow “effectively leveraged our…feedstock and derivative flexibility in a very dynamic environment,” he said. “And higher operating rates compared to the impact of Winter Storm Uri in the year-ago period enabled us to capture better end market demand.”CFO Howard I. Ungerleider noted that Dow has benefited from having the majority of its global manufacturing capacity near rich shale natural gas resources.“About 65% of our production capacity is based in the Americas where we have a cost advantage from abundant shale-based feedstocks,” the CFO said.Dow, whose products go into plastics, coatings, building materials, and numerous other applications for consumer and industrial end markets, anticipates “ongoing underlying demand strength” across those markets in 2Q2022.“Despite elevated inflation, consumer spending continues to grow and balance sheets remain healthy with household debt service levels at some of the lowest levels in the last 30 years,” Ungerleider said. “Industry activity also remains robust” and continues “to point toward expansion.”Fitterling said “the biggest issue behind natural gas pricing in the near term has been freeze-offs in the U.S. and the fact that we’ve not been back to the 98 Bcf a day that we need to produce…to get inventories back to the five-year level.” According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Lower 48 U.S. working gas in storage increased by 53 Bcf for the week ending April 15.Fitterling added, however, that “we’re starting to see the production and the rigs shift into natural gas production.” As a result, he predicted that “natural gas production is going to come on faster” than liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capability.“We’re pretty well maxed out on LNG export capability today,” he said. “So we’ll — if we can get these inventories back to the five-year average levels by the fall, then I think you’re going to see natural gas prices really come back into a more normal trading range.”In the medium-term, Fitterling said he expects gas prices in the $4.00-$6.00/MMBtu range. Longer-term, “as those inventories get to that five-year level,” he said gas prices should be closer to $3.00/MMBtu territory.
Yellen Warns EU About Banning Russian Oil -- A full EU ban on Russian crude oil and gas imports could have unintended economic consequences for the United States and its Western allies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told reporters in Washington on Thursday. The Treasury Secretary added that such a ban could do more harm than good.Europe does need to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas, Yellen said, “but we need to be careful when we think about a complete European ban on, say, oil imports.”Europe has been under pressure to stop purchases of Russian oil and gas—an action that would cut off revenue streams for Russia, but would also starve the EU of much needed energy supplies.Yellen’s warning follows JP Morgan’s from earlier this week that suggested a full and immediate ban in the EU on Russian energy supplies would cut off more than 4 million bpd of Russian oil and send crude oil prices to $185 per barrel.The EU and the European Commission has been discussing an embargo on Russian crude oil, but the group is divided on the issue, with countries such as Germany strongly opposed due to its significant reliance on Russian energy supplies. Even if all EU members do agree on such a ban, it would still take months to draft and prepare, European officials said last week. The EU is already in talks with other oil-producing countries with the end goal of obtaining alternative oil suppliers so it can more readily wean itself off Russian oil supply. Yellen agreed that a European energy ban would raise oil prices, “and, counterintuitively, it could actually have very little negative impact on Russia” because while Russia could end up exporting less oil, the price it would get for each barrel could also go up. The U.S. Administration has been railing against highgasoline prices—a result of high crude oil prices—since last Fall.
Kremlin’s gas-for-roubles demand threatens Europe’s gas supply The prospect of Europe getting cut off from Russian gas supplies is starting to get real. The clock is ticking in a standoff over the Kremlin’s demand that its customers in Europe pay in roubles for the fuel, which the region depends on for a fifth of its power generation. The EU has said the decree violates sanctions and hands more power to Russia. It suggested an alternative that avoids roubles on Friday, but it is up to Moscow to decide if that is acceptable. Payments come due in May, and that is when the moment of truth arrives. By refusing President Vladimir Putin’s payment terms and testing his threat to turn off the taps, European buyers “would be running a very real risk of their supplies being cut,” said Katja Yafimava, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. The game of geopolitical chicken could lead to Europe rationing energy for the first time since the oil crisis in the 1970s. As the biggest consumer of Russian gas in Europe, Germany is most exposed, but the fallout would ripple across the continent and beyond. Europe’s natural gas market would show the impact immediately. Trading is already on edge, with prices five times higher than the same time last year. That could get worse. In the event of a supply disruption, forward contracts could more than triple, especially if Europe enters next winter with depleted storage, according to Kaushal Ramesh, senior analyst, gas and LNG at Rystad Energy. Such a surge would put governments and central banks under pressure as they seek to control soaring inflation. The risk is that the mounting cost-of-living crisis intensifies and spills over into wider unrest and a deeper crisis. With less fuel for gas-fired generators, the risks of rolling blackouts would increase. While countries would try to shift to other sources, the options are limited. France would halt large gas-fired power plants to conserve the fuel for other needs, Italy would maximise production from coal or fuel oil, and Germany has discussed burning more local lignite, the dirtiest form of coal. The workarounds are likely to make the region even more polluting. On the upside, warmer weather would reduce gas consumption for heating, delaying the worst effects at least until the fall.
EU asks people to use less air conditioning, drive slower, and work from home to help reduce reliance on Russian energy -The European Union is asking people to use less air conditioning, drive slower, and work from home to help it reduce reliance on Russian energy amid the war in Ukraine.In a nine-step plan published Thursday, entitled "Playing My Part," the International Energy Agency (IEA) and EU outlined different ways people could cut down on fossil-fuel consumption in their daily lives. The suggested measures to save energy include:
- Using less heat in the winter and less air conditioning in the summer
- Driving slower on highways
- Flying less
- Taking more public transport
- Working from home
The measures would not only cut Europe's reliance on Russian energy but also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, saving an average household around 450 euros ($485) per year, the IEA and EU said. It would also save enough oil to fill 120 supertanker ships and enough natural gas to heat almost 20 million homes in the EU, they said."Most households are also experiencing higher energy bills because of the energy crisis exacerbated by the war," the EU and IEA said."Using less energy is not only an immediate way for Europeans to reduce their bills, it also supports Ukraine by reducing the need for Russian oil and gas, thereby helping to reduce the revenue streams funding the invasion," they added.Western countries, especially in Europe, have been desperately trying to pull themselves away from Russian energy imports since the start of the invasion on February 24.In March, the EU pledged to become independent from Russian oil and gas by 2030.The EU sends Russia around $450 million a day for oil and $400 million per day for natural gas, the Associated Press reported, citing analysts at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels.One of Russia's biggest buyers is Germany, which purchases about 25% of its oil and 40% of its natural gas, per Reuters.
Watch: Construction of Norway-Poland gas pipeline resumes Work on a pipeline to deliver natural gas from Norway to Poland has resumed in Denmark after a nine-month suspension. The Baltic Pipe, which is expected to deliver 10 billion cubic metres of gas annually to Poland — about half of the country's total consumption — should be fully operational from 1 January 2023. The European Union has announced plans to slash by two-thirds its imports of Russian gas by the end of the year to reduce its dependence on Moscow which supplies about 45% of the bloc's natural gas imports. This is in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with the EU's energy dependence on Russia seen as a potential pressure point for Moscow to use against the bloc. Although the EU has imposed sanctions against Russia for its military assault on its neighbour, it has steered clear of punitive measures against the gas and oil sectors. Watch our report in the video player above.
Live updates: Russia halts gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as tensions rise with the West ---Russia's gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have been halted on Wednesday morning after the countries refused Moscow's demand to pay for gas supplies in rubles. Russia's state gas giant Gazprom had contacted Poland and Bulgaria's state gas companies on Tuesday telling them that their supplies would be halted on Wednesday. Poland said its supplies had been cut today, while the situation in Bulgaria is more uncertain. Poland's state-owned oil and gas company PGNiG said Russia's gas giant Gazprom had informed it on Tuesday that it would halt gas supplies that are delivered via the Yamal pipeline on Wednesday morning. PGNiG said in a statement Tuesday that the company is monitoring the situation "and is prepared for various scenarios" and to receive gas from other sources, but said that currently it has enough gas in storage and is meeting demand. The halting of gas supplies to Poland, which imports around 45% of its natural gas from Russia, according to recent data from the EU, is another sign of rising tensions between Russia and the West following the invasion of Ukraine. One official in Kyiv described Russia's latest move to cut supplies as "gas blackmail." Bulgaria imported almost 73% of its natural gas from Russia in 2020, EU data shows. Russia had demanded that countries importing its gas (the EU as a bloc imports around 40% of its natural gas from Russia every year) must pay in rubles, prompting a backlash from importers, including Poland and Bulgaria, which refused and said the demand is a breach of contract.
Poland, Bulgaria cut off from Russian gas as Ukraine tensions mount - — Polish and Bulgarian leaders accused Moscow of using natural gas to blackmail their countries after Russia's state-controlled energy company said it would stop supplying the two European nations Wednesday.The gas cutoff came after Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that “unfriendly” countries would need to start paying for gas in rubles, Russia's currency, which Bulgaria and Poland refused to do.Russian energy giant Gazprom said in a statement that it hadn’t received any payments from Poland and Bulgaria since April 1 and was suspending their deliveries starting Wednesday.If the countries siphon off gas intended for other European customers, deliveries to Europe will be reduced by that amount, the company said.Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told Poland's parliament that he thinks the suspension was revenge for new sanctions against Russia that Warsaw imposed over the war in Ukraine.Morawiecki vowed that Poland would not be cowed by the cutoff. He said the country was safe from an energy crisis thanks to years of efforts to secure gas from other countries.Lawmakers stood and applauded when he said that Russia’s “gas blackmail” would have no effect on Poland.The new sanctions, announced Tuesday, targeted 50 Russian oligarchs and companies, including Gazprom. Hours later, Poland said it had received notice that Gazprom was cutting off its gas supplies for failing to adhere to the demand to pay in Russian rubles.Poland’s gas company, PGNiG, said the gas supplies from the Yamal pipeline stopped early Wednesday, as Gazprom had warned they would.Bulgaria said Tuesday that it also was informed by Gazprom that the country's gas supplies would end at the same time.Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov called Gazprom’s suspension of gas deliveries to his country “a gross violation of their contract" and “blackmail.”“We will not succumb to such a racket,” he added.Russia's move raised wider concerns that other countries could be targeted next as Western countries increase their support for Ukraine amid a war now in its third month.European Union officials were holding emergency talks on Wednesday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the announcement by Gazprom “is yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as an instrument of blackmail.”The Greek government was to hold its own emergency meeting in Athens. Greece's next scheduled payment to Gazprom is due on May 25, and the government must decide whether it will comply with the demand to complete the transaction in rubles. Greece is ramping up its liquefied natural gas storage capacity, and has contingency plans to switch several industry sectors from gas to diesel as an emergency energy source. It has also reversed a program to reduce domestic coal production over the next two years.
Russia accused of 'blackmail' after halting gas supplies to two European countries - Russia's gas supplies to Eastern Europe are looking highly uncertain after the country's state-run gas giant Gazprom told Poland and Bulgaria that it would halt supplies. The move comes after both countries refused Moscow's recent demand to pay for gas supplies in rubles, but also coincides with a sharp rise in tensions between Western allies and Russia as the war in Ukraine continues into a third month. Early Wednesday morning, Gazprom released a statement saying it had halted supplies to Poland and Bulgaria — both heavy consumers of Russian gas — due to payments not being made in the Russian currency. It said supplies would resume once these payments were made. In the statement, Gazprom warned both countries against any "unauthorized withdrawal" of gas supplies flowing through their territories. "Bulgaria and Poland are transit states. In case of unauthorized withdrawal of Russian gas from transit volumes to third countries, supplies for transit will be reduced by this volume." Natural gas prices surged in Europe on Wednesday morning. The Dutch wholesale gas contract for the day-ahead, a benchmark for Europe, rose 24.2% to 115.75 euros ($122.40) per megawatt hour, while the U.K. natural gas price for June rose around 20 pence to 222 pence ($2.78) a therm. Poland's state-owned oil and gas company PGNiG said Gazprom had informed it on Tuesday that it would halt supplies that are delivered to the country via the Yamal pipeline, starting Wednesday morning. But after dropping to zero earlier Wednesday, physical gas supplies appeared to edge up again, data from the European Union network of gas transmission operators showed, according to Reuters. Poland, however, said the supplies had indeed been halted. Bulgaria has not confirmed that its supplies have been stopped but its prime minister, Kiril Petkov, described the move as "blackmail" and said any halt in supplies would be a breach of contract. Bulgaria's energy minister, Alexander Nikolov, said supplies to customers were guaranteed for at least a month ahead, Reuters reported.
European gas prices have surged 28% since Russia halted supplies to Poland and Bulgaria - European gas prices surged on Wednesday, after Russia halted supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, stoking concern that other countries in the continent could be targeted for their support towards Ukraine.Benchmark Dutch futures contracts tracking Europe's wholesale gas price rose as much as 28% to 117 euros per megawatt hour ($124) in early trading Wednesday, according to data from Investing.com.That jump came as Russia's state-owned energy major Gazprom said it would "fully halt" gas supplies to Bulgaria's Bulgargaz and Poland's PGNiG "due to their failure to pay in rubles."Both countries were informed that all flows would be stopped from Wednesday, April 27.For more than a month, tensions have been rising between Western nations and Russia over the Ukraine war. President Vladimir Putin in March ordered "unfriendly countries" to pay for Russian gas using its official currency, even though these contracts are generally required to be paid in dollars. Europe has leaned on Russia for decades because it's dependent on the country for around 40% of its gas supplies. Poland and Bulgaria are among other European nations that have rejected paying rubles for gas supplies, disputing that this would be a breach of contractand would avoid sanctions on Russia's central bank.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday that Gazprom's announcement is another attempt to use gas as an "instrument of blackmail.""This is unjustified and unacceptable. And it shows once again the unreliability of Russia as a gas supplier," she said in a statement, adding that the bloc is working on alternate sources of delivery to ensure continued supply.
Europe scrambles for natural gas solution as Putin squeezes supply - The European Union is racing to find alternative suppliers of natural gas after Russia's Gazprom halted flows to two EU nations, sparking fears that other countries may also be cut off. The developments come as Brussels is fearful about nations and energy firms circumventing strict international sanctions on Russia — imposed on Moscow in the wake of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Gazprom, Russia's state-owned energy firm, cut supplies of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria earlier this week, after both nations refused to pay for the commodity in rubles — something that President Vladimir Putin requested amid growing Western support for Ukraine. The decision puts further pressure on the EU, which imports roughly 40% of all its natural gas from Moscow, to find alternative solutions. "It contributes to opening the eyes of those who were still thinking Russia would not use gas as a leverage," one EU official, who did not want to be named due to the sensitive nature of the situation, told CNBC about Russia's latest move. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen went further Wednesday, accusing the Kremlin of blackmailing the bloc. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed accusations that Moscow was using its gas supplies to blackmail European nations Poland and Bulgaria, saying Russia was a reliable energy supplier. He also declined to say how many countries had agreed to switch to paying for gas in rubles, Reuters reported. But the pressure could escalate if Gazprom chooses to cut supplies to other EU nations. The Kremlin warned Wednesday that other countries will face the same issue if they do not pay in rubles — something that the commission, the executive arm of the EU, opposes as it would breach current sanctions. "Russia's move to halt gas flows to Poland followed Berlin's decision—under intense political pressure—to supply Ukraine with air-defense weaponry. The implied threat is that Russia will cut off Germany's gas supplies if Berlin continues to ship arms to Ukraine," analysts at Gavekal, a financial research firm, said in a note Thursday. "The economic effects would be catastrophic," they added.As such, the commission has been working on becoming less dependent on Russian gas. It signed an agreement with the United States earlier this year, where the EU will receive at least 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas in 2022.In the meantime, Brussels will have to decide how to keep paying for Russian natural gas without breaching the bloc's own rules. Russia issued a decree in late March saying European companies will continue to pay for gas in euros to Gazprombank — an institution that is not part of European sanctions — and then this cash would be converted into rubles in a secondary account opened by these energy firms.
Russian Supply Concerns Drive Natural-Gas Prices Higher - Natural-gas prices swung higher on both sides of the Atlantic on Wednesday after Russia stopped exports to Poland and Bulgaria , a move that investors feared could portend deeper global supply strains ahead. Prices climbed as traders in Europe pondered whether Russia’s action against two of its neighbors in Eastern Europe foreshadows trouble in bigger markets such as Germany’s. In the U.S., trading was driven by the prospect that producers could continue to ship abroad as much natural gas as infrastructure allows in response to tighter supply abroad.
Poland and Bulgaria say they won't bow down to Russia after Gazprom shut off their gas supply --=Poland and Bulgaria said Wednesday they won't bow down to Russia after its state-owned energy supplier Gazprom announced it will shut off their gas supply.In a statement seen by Reuters, the Russian energy giant said that its services will not be restored in the countries until they pay for gas in rubles — Russia's currency, which has suffered since Russia invaded Ukraine.Poland confirmed to the BBC that its gas supply had already been cut.Bulgaria's gas network operator Bulgartransgaz told local news provider Novinite that supplies were still flowing as of Wednesday morning, but said this could change throughout the day.Both countries said they can cope without Gazprom's gas in the short term, and that are seeking out alternative options."We have provided alternative quantities for a sufficiently foreseeable period," Bulgaria's energy minister Alexander Nikolov said on Wednesday, according to Novinite."As long as I am a minister and responsible for this, Bulgaria will not negotiate under pressure and with its head bowed," he added. "Bulgaria does not give in and is not sold at any price at any trade counterparty." Bulgaria relies on Gazprom for more than 90% of its gas supply,according to the BBC. Nikolov reassured the public that no restrictions on consumption were currently required, as per Novinite.
Four European gas buyers have paid Russia in rubles for supplies, bucking the EU's urging in the energy face-off - Four European natural gas buyers have already paid Russia in rublesfor supplies, complying with the country's demand to pay in its official currency, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. This development emerged as Russia halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday, spurring a 28% surge in European gas prices. Russia's Gazprom said the reason for the stoppage is that both countries didn't pay for supplies in rubles, an order President Vladimir Putin put forth last month.The report didn't mention which four European buyers have made ruble payments. But Austria, which gets 80% of its gas from Russia, said Wednesday that deliveries are continuing unrestricted, according to Reuters.Additional cutoffs — as a result of failure to meet Moscow's rubles-for-gas requirement — are unlikely until the second half of May, Bloomberg said, citing a source close to Gazprom.Separately, the report said 10 European companies have opened accounts at Russia's Gazprombank as a means to meet Putin's payment demands. No company names were mentioned in the report.Under a special mechanism, a requirement for companies wanting to receive Russian gas is that buyers should open special accounts at Gazprombank. These would allow for foreign currency to be converted to rubles for settlements.Europe depends on Russia for around 40% of its gas supplies, but Moscow's demands have changed this trade dynamic. After Russia demanded payment for gas in rubles, some European governments said this would amount to a breach of contract and would avoid sanctions. Germany is especially reliant on Russian energy, particularly the natural gas that's shipped directly through the Nord Stream pipeline network. The Bundesbank has warned that cutting out Russian gas would plunge Germany's economy into recession.
Gas Flares: Europe Has a Hissy, Flails About as Russia Imposes Gas Payment Countersanctions and Economies Already Feel Blowback Bite by Yves Smith -On the whole, European and US leaders are continuing to make a very poor showing of the situation they instigated with Russia. The Biden Administration decided to seize $300 billion of Russian foreign exchange reserves, overconfident that they would crater the Russian economy. Ironically, however, the sanctions greatly reduced the Russian need for foreign exchange for trade, since respectable US and European companies took it upon themselves to stop or limit exports to Russia. And Russian banks don’t fund in dollars or euros (in contrast with the 1990s, when the economy was significantly dollarized). And the world still needs Russian oil, gas, metals, you name it.So after an initial shock and awe plunge, the rouble is very close to its highs versus the dollar over the last two years…despite the dollar being at its highest level against major currencies in the last 20 years. From XE: And Russia energy revenues have been fine, thank you very much: Russia projected a budget surplus before this crisis and its government income will be even higher due to the increase in energy revenues. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told the Duma in early April that all receipts would now be spent into the economy. As you can see from the embedded document below, the government is embarking on more investment, loan discount, and tax relief programs. But Russia spent decades having to be a good budget-balancing-surplus running economy because (per above) it was significantly dollarized and had to look fiscally responsible to support the value of the rouble. Russia will suffer a serious recession, not just due to adaptation to having to produce even more internally, but also due to not being willing to run deficits when it is now able to operate as a fiat currency issuer. And even though the real economy shock has yet to fully manifest itself, the Russian top team is doing what it can to get in front of those issues, and they’ve also been warning the public that a second phase of difficulties is in the offing, which they expect to be the most acute starting soon and for the following six months.In other words, Russia managed the initial financial shock vastly better than the US and Europe imagined was possible. That leaves the West with the big problem that Russia can and is pushing back. It is telling that only very mild Russian counter-sanctions are putting Europe on tilt.The US and even more so Europe look to be hoist on their own sanctions petard. Yet they’ll be damned if they’ll formally walk back, even though there’s a lot of fudging going on. To recap: Putin announced its so-called “gas for roubles” program late last month, with details to follow. The reasoning was simple: Russia had just had $300 billion of what amounted to payment on past commodities exports stolen. It was not going to have payments on its gas exports to “unfriendly” countries subject to being clawed back again. The only way to assure that was to get payments in rouble, since rouble payment and clearing is under the control of the Russian Central Bank. As we anticipated, Russia implemented pretty much the only version that would respect Putin’s boundary conditions, which included adhering to the terms of current contracts.1 So all that really changed was that gas buyers would have to set up accounts at Gazprom Bank, which was not sanctioned.2Russia did not make this requirement effective until the next payments were due, and the earliest were the end of April..If you take the war out of the picture, this matter would otherwise be a pretty routine commercial dispute: “You stiffed me on some (actually really big) payments. Rather than argue about that, I’m requiring a minor change in payment arrangements to prevent that from happening.” But the screeching from Europe was astonishing. You’d think they believed they had the right to have Russia send them gas for free.
Europe faces recession if Putin fully shuts off the gas taps - Europe could be pushed into recession if Russia's gas squeeze widens, economists have suggested, after Gazprom cut off flows to Poland and Bulgaria. The state-owned energy giant on Wednesday announced that gas supplies to the two Eastern European countries had ceased after they refused Moscow's demand to pay for gas in rubles. Gazprom said that supplies would resume once these payments were made, prompting accusations of "blackmail" from Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. With deadlines approaching in the coming weeks for payment from a host of other European countries that are unlikely to acquiesce to the Kremlin's demands for ruble payment, concerns over President Vladimir Putin's previous threats of a broad blockage of gas supplies to "unfriendly" nations have returned to the fore. In a research note Wednesday, Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding and Senior Economist Kallum Pickering said the switch-off appeared to be a warning from Moscow that it could make good on this threat. Gas accounts for around a quarter of the European Union's energy generation, and Russia typically supplies around 40% of the bloc's natural gas imports. Europe faces concurrent economic shocks from the war in Ukraine and a surge in food and energy prices exacerbated by the conflict, which has prompted concerns about "stagflation" — an environment of low economic growth and high inflation. Berenberg suggested that the current headwinds will likely maintain stagflationary pressures in the second quarter of 2022. "A sudden stop of Russian gas supplies to Europe could push Europe into a recession. The precise impact of such an immediate gas embargo is hard to predict," Schmieding and Pickering said. "Calculations that it would lower the level of euro zone GDP in 2023 by 3 percentage points relative to a baseline call ... seem to be slightly too pessimistic, in our view, but it would certainly be a major hit to activity until the end of the next cold season in the spring of 2023." However, such a move would also be costly for Russia and tricky to implement, and although the decision to stop flows to Poland and Bulgaria may strengthen the EU's resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, many member states oppose an immediate embargo of imports.
Russia’s halt of European gas could see 'catastrophic' winter pricing, veteran trader warns --Veteran natural gas trader Bill Perkins warned Thursday of potentially "catastrophic pricing" this winter if Russia's move to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria ends in a full-blown energy blockade. "It's a dicey market right now," Perkins, CEO and head trader at Skylar Capital Management, told CNBC. "We're in a hot-box button-panic mode," Perkins added. "If Russia shuts off the gas and oil, Europe is going to be scrambling this winter to maintain heating, and just maintain their economies," he said. Russia's Gazprom on Tuesday informed Poland and Bulgaria's state gas companies, PGNiG and Bulgargaz, that it will halt gas supplies after the two countries refused President Vladimir Putin's demands to pay for supplies in the Russian ruble. The escalation sent the Dutch wholesale gas contract for the day-ahead, a benchmark for Europe, up more than 20% Wednesday. Dutch TTF Natural Gas futures are up almost 60% year-to-date. "Expect an elevated price and lots of volatility for the next few years," Perkins warned, describing his forward market outlook as "slightly bearish in the front" but "constructive and bullish long term." "Given where prices are right now, and the flows of LNG [liquefied natural gas] to northwest Europe, it's actually a bearish situation barring the complete removal of Russian gas," he said. "Given that they've fired the first missile … everybody else is on notice, so those bearish bets are trimmed back," he added. "In the winter, all bets are off," Perkins said. "Without Russian gas, which is about 40% of their gas supply or their demand for gas, it's really difficult to see how the market balances without running out of gas."
New gas pipeline boosts Europe's bid to ease Russian supply - (AP) — Mountainous and remote, the Greek-Bulgaria border once formed the southern corner of the Iron Curtain. Today, it’s where the European Union is redrawing the region’s energy map to ease its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas. A new pipeline — built during the COVID-19 pandemic, tested and due to start commercial operation in June — would ensure that large volumes of gas flow between the two countries in both directions to generate electricity, fuel industry and heat homes. The energy link takes on greater importance following Moscow’s decision this week to cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria over a demand for payments in rubles stemming from Western sanctions over the war of Ukraine. The 180-kilometer (110-mile) pipeline project is the first of several planned gas interconnectors that would give eastern European Union members and countries hoping to join the 27-nation bloc access to the global gas market. In the short term, it’s Bulgaria’s backup. The new pipeline connection, called the Gas Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria, will give the country access to ports in neighboring Greece that are importing liquefied natural gas, or LNG, and also will bring gas from Azerbaijan through a new pipeline system that ends in Italy. It's one of many efforts as EU members scramble to edit their energy mixes, with some reverting back to emissions-heavy coal while also planning expanded output from renewables. Germany, the world’s biggest buyer of Russian energy, is looking to build LNG import terminals that would take years. Italy, another top Russian gas importer, has reached deals with Algeria, Azerbaijan, Angola and Congo for gas supplies. The European Union wants to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas by two-thirds this year and to eliminate it completely over five years through alternative sources, the use of wind and solar power, and conservation. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is likely to accelerate changes in the EU’s long-term strategy as the bloc adapts to energy that is more expensive but also more integrated among member nations, said Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. EU policymakers argue that while Eastern European members are among the most dependent on Russian gas, the size of their markets makes the problem manageable. Bulgaria imported 90% of its gas from Russia but only consumes 3 billion cubic meters annually — 30 times less than lead consumer Germany, according to 2020 data from EU statistics agency Eurostat. The Greece-Bulgaria pipeline will complement the existing European network, much of which dates to the Soviet era, when Moscow sought badly needed funds for its faltering economy and Western suppliers to help build its pipelines. The link will run between the northeastern Greek city of Komotini and Stara Zagora, in central Bulgaria, and will give Bulgaria and neighbors with new grid connections access to the expanding global gas market. That includes a connection with the newly built Trans Adriatic Pipeline, which carries gas from Azerbaijan, and suppliers of liquefied natural gas that arrives by ship, likely to include Qatar, Algeria and the United States. As many as eight additional interconnectors could be built in Eastern Europe, reaching as far as Ukraine and Austria. The 240 million-euro ($250 million) pipeline will carry 3 billion cubic meters of gas per year, with an option to be expanded to 5 billion. It received funding from Bulgaria, Greece and the EU, and has strong political support from Brussels and the United States.
Algeria Threatens to Cut Off Gas Exports to Spain Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions -Until mid-March this year, Spain appeared to hold an enviable position in Europe’s natural gas markets. While it produced virtually no gas of its own, it was also almost completely free of dependence on Russian-supplied gas, thanks largely to its long-standing commercial ties with Africa’s largest exporter of natural gas, Algeria. In 2021 Algeria provided 43% of all the gas consumed in Spain. But those ties could be on the verge of breaking, leaving Spain in a much less enviable position.On Wednesday (Apr 27), Algiers threatened to cut off the gas supply to Spain if the Sánchez government diverted any of the energy it received from Algeria to any third countries (without naming any names).“Any transport of Algerian natural gas delivered to Spain whose destination is contrary to that provided for in the contracts will be considered a breach of contractual commitments, and consequently, could lead to a breach of the contract that binds Sonatrach (NC: Algeria’s state-owned natural gas company) with its Spanish customers,” the Algerian government said in a statement.Though Algeria did not name any names, it didn’t need to. Spain has been talking for months about reversing the flow of the now dormant Maghreb-España (MGE) pipeline in order to shift gas to Morocco, which has struggled to secure new supplies since Algeria closed the MGE in November 2021.This Algiers did for a number of reasons, including as retaliation for a cyber-espionage campaign by Rabat against high-ranking Algerian officials, including the president, the minister of foreign affairs, and a former military chief of staff. A staunch defender of Western Sahara’s claims for independence and home to close to 200,000 Western Sahrawi refugees, Algiers is also livid about Morocco’s aggressive (and so far largely successful) efforts to garner international support for its territorial claims over Western Sahara.For both Spain and Morocco the pipeline was an important source of natural gas that has now gone. Spain is still receiving gas from Algeria through the Medgaz pipeline that links the two countries by sea as well as from LNG shipments. Morocco is having to depend on domestic production, which is not nearly enough to meet domestic demand. The new plan, hatched between Madrid, Rabat and quite possibly Washington (more on that later) would work as follows: Morocco would purchase liquified natural gas on the international market, most likely the US, which will be regassified in Spain and then piped to Morocco. The US has already replaced Algeria as Spain’s largest supplier of gas in recent months.
Qatar Energy weighs expansion of LNG capacity - State-run Qatar Energy is considering further expanding its liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity amid the rising gas demand in Europe, reported Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter. The European nations are attempting to secure supplies to cut reliance on Russian gas, following the invasion of Ukraine. Qatar Energy is in talks with undisclosed gas buyers on whether to expand the $30bn project by adding six gas-liquefaction plants. Each of the proposed six new units is expected to have the capacity to produce eight million tonnes of LNG per year.
Three Chinese energy firms are in talks to buy Shell's stake in a huge Russian natural gas export project, a report says -- Three Chinese state-run energy companies are in talks to buy Shell's 27.5% stake in a huge Russian natural gas export project, Bloomberg reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter.CNOOC, CNPC, and Sinopec are in joint discussions with the Anglo-Dutch oil and natural gas giant over its holding in the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas venture, the people said.The sources said discussions, which could include selling the stake to one, two, or all three of the firms, were at an early stage and could still fall through. One of the sources said that Shell was also open to talks with potential buyers outside of China.Shell says that Sakhalin-2 supplies about 4% of the world's current liquefied natural gas market, with Japan, South Korea, and China as the main customers. Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom owns a 50% stake in the venture, while Japanese corporate group Mitsui owns 12.5%, and fellow Japanese firm Mitsubishi holds 10%.Shell, CNOOC, CNPC, and Sinopec did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.Russia has huge natural gas reserves, and supplied around a third of the EU and UK's total natural gas demand in 2021, according to the International Energy Agency. It's also the world's third largest oil producer and the second largest crude oil exporter, the agency said.Some Western oil firms have said they would discontinue operations in Russia following the outbreak of the conflict and the ensuing package of international sanctions, designed to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to abandon the invasion. China, in comparison, hasn't taken sides and has continued buying energy supplies from Russia.
CPC crude export terminal operating at full capacity --The Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CPC) crude export terminal in the Black Sea is operating at full capacity for the first time since two of its three single point mooring (SPM) buoys were damaged in a storm a month ago.The terminal, which is the main export route for Kazakhstan's crude, requires two SPMs in operation to function at full capacity, with the third buoy serving as an emergency spare. It had been operating with just one buoy since 24 March.SPM 2 remains offline, but SPM 3 was restarted on 23 April, the CPC said. The Delta Commander tanker completed loading a crude cargo from SPM 3 yesterday, according to market and shipping sources.Russia's technical watchdog Rostekhnadzor has finished an inspection on CPC infrastructure that it began on 12 April, the consortium said, adding that no oil spill was recorded in the Black Sea.The CPC terminal handles roughly 80pc of Kazakh crude and condensate loadings. It is scheduled to export a provisional 1.42mn b/d in May, up from a revised 1.35mn b/d this month.The disruption at the terminal briefly cut Kazakh crude production by around a quarter. Output was 1.68mn b/d on 22 March, before dropping to 1.25mn b/d on 3-4 April and rising to 1.65mn b/d on 24 April, according to Kazakhstan's Information Analytical Centre of Oil and Gas and Arguscalculations. Kazakh crude production averaged 1.59mn b/d in March, down by 50,000 b/d from February, Argus estimates.Chevron, which leads the Tengizchevroil (TCO) consortium operating Tengiz, told Argus that output at the field is back to "normal rates." The company was forced to adjust production at the Tengiz field in late March, following the disruption to exports. "[TCO] is currently exporting its crude oil in line with full allocations by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium," Chevron said.
Russian oil exports rebound, but destinations are harder to track - Asia is probably still snapping up cheap Russian oil that European buyers don’t want. Seaborne exports of the nation’s crude rebounded in the seven days to April 22. One-fifth of the volume shipped from ports on the Black Sea, Baltic and Arctic coasts is on tankers showing no final destination, with most expected to end up in Asia. A total of 40 tankers loaded about 28-million barrels from Russian export terminals, according to vessel-tracking data and port agent reports collated by Bloomberg. That put average seaborne crude flows at 4-million barrels a day, up by 25% against the week ended April 15. The weather played a big part. The jump in oil exports means a boost to revenues for Moscow as President Vladimir Putin steps up his war in Ukraine, while the US and EU discuss options to wean Europe off Russian oil. At current rates of crude oil export duty, the week’s shipments will have earned the Kremlin about $232m; that’s $46m more than the previous week. Russia exports crude from four main areas: the Baltic Sea in northwest Europe, the Black Sea, the Arctic and terminals on its Pacific Coast. From three of the four areas, flows to Asia or unknown destinations rose. The weekly shipment figures can swing depending on the timing of when tankers depart, which is also heavily influenced by the weather at ports — as has been the case for the past several weeks. The past week saw higher aggregate volumes from all four regions. Flows of Urals and Siberian Light crude from terminals in the Baltic and Black Sea rose by 663,000 barrels a day, or 36%. The volume of crude leaving the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk more than doubled as a backlog of ships that built up during the previous week’s bad weather started to clear. Meanwhile, shipments from the country’s three eastern terminals on its Pacific Ocean coast were up by 105,000 barrels a day, or 10%. Cargoes from Murmansk, which handles crude produced along Russia’s Arctic coastline were also up, increasing by 29,000 barrels a day, or 9%.
Israeli oil firm fined $490,000 decade after major spill -An Israeli court ruled Tuesday that state-owned Europe Asia Pipeline Company must pay a fine of 1.6 million shekels ($490,000) for polluting a stream in Israel in 2011.In addition, the company’s former CEO and two other senior executives were fined tens of thousands of shekels each. The penalties, which will be paid to the Environmental Protection Ministry’s Maintenance of Cleanliness Fund, come after the court convicted EAPC and the senior officials in February of polluting Nahal Zin and its environs in separate incidents in June and September 2011. In both cases, hundreds of thousands of liters of jet fuel leaked into the stream from a company pipeline. In her ruling on Tuesday, Judge Sara Haviv of the Be'er Sheva Magistrate's Court said the “nature and scope of the damage” were severe. Nevertheless, she added, the senior executives “aren’t directly responsible for the damage to the pipeline.” Their crime was failing to do everything they could to prevent it.EAPC’s fine must be paid within three months, she ruled, and if the company commits any similar offenses over the next two years, it will have to pay an additional penalty of 3 million shekels.EAPC’s former CEO, Yair Vida, was fined 75,000 shekels, though he can choose six months in jail instead. Shlomo Levy, the current vice president for safety and environmental protection, who was deputy head of the engineering department in 2011, was given the choice of paying a fine of 150,000 shekels or serving nine months in jail. Nir Savyon, the vice president for engineering, who was a project manager in 2011, was given the option of a 100,000-shekel fine or nine months in jail.In her verdict in February, Haviv wrote that the company and the three executives hadn’t prepared sufficiently to cope with such an emergency or done enough to minimize the risks of a spill. Therefore, even though the damage to the pipeline was actually caused by employees of a subcontractor, EAPC was ultimately responsible for it.
Over 100 killed in massive explosion at illegal oil refinery in Nigeria --More than 100 people were killed overnight in an explosion at an illegal oil refining depot on the border of Nigeria's Rivers and Imo states, a local government official and an environmental group said on Saturday. "The fire outbreak occurred at an illegal bunkering site and it affected over 100 people who were burnt beyond recognition," the state commissioner for petroleum resources, Goodluck Opiah, said. The bunkering site was in the Ohaji-Egbema Local Government Area of Imo state in the Abaezi forest that straddles the border of the two states. Unemployment and poverty in the oil-producing Niger Delta have made illegal crude refining an attractive business but with deadly consequences. Crude oil is tapped from a web of pipelines owned by major oil companies and refined into products in makeshift tanks. The hazardous process has led to many fatal accidents and has polluted a region already blighted by oil spills in farmland, creeks and lagoons. The Youths and Environmental Advocacy Centre said several vehicles that were in a queue to buy illegal fuel were burnt in the explosion. The border location is a reaction to a recent crackdown by the Rivers state governor on illegal refining in an effort to reduce worsening air pollution.
100 killed after blast at illegal Nigerian oil refinery -Charred bodies were left scattered among burnt palms, cars and vans on Sunday after a weekend explosion which killed more than 100 people at an illegal oil refining depot on the border of Nigeria's Rivers and Imo states. Flip flops, bags and clothing belonging to those who died littered the ground, which was blackened by oil and soot while still emitting smoke in some places despite overnight rain. "There are so many people that died here. I'm pleading to the government to look into this," Uche Woke, a commercial bike rider, told Reuters at the scene of the blast on Saturday night. The Nigerian Red Cross Society was on the scene on Sunday to assess the blast, which destroyed a section of the Abaezi forest, which straddles the border of the Ohaji-Egbema Local Government Area of Imo state with Rivers state. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari said in a statement that he would intensify the clampdown on illegal refineries after what he described as a "catastrophe" and "national disaster". Unemployment and poverty in the oil producing Niger Delta have made illegal refining attractive, but with often deadly consequences. Crude oil is tapped from a web of pipelines owned by major oil companies and refined in makeshift tanks. The process has led to fatal accidents and polluted a region already blighted by oil spills in farmland, creeks and lagoons. The Youths and Environmental Advocacy Centre said several vehicles that were in a queue to buy illegal fuel were burnt. "The fire outbreak occurred at an illegal bunkering site and it affected over 100 people," Goodluck Opiah, the state commissioner for petroleum resources, said of the accident. The border location is a reaction to a recent crackdown in Rivers on illegal refining in an effort to reduce worsening air pollution. "In the last month or two, there were several raids and some security agents involved were tackled," Ledum Mitee, former president of the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP), said. At least 25 people, including some children, were killed in an explosion and fire at another illegal refinery in Rivers state in October. In February, local authorities said they had started a crackdown on the refining of stolen crude, but with little apparent success. Government officials estimate that Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer and exporter, loses an average of 200,000 barrels of oil per day, more than 10% of production, to illegal tapping or vandalising of pipelines. That has forced oil firms to regularly declare force majeure on oil and gas exports.
Nigeria's oil rig count improves amid rise in oil prices - The number of total active oil drilling rigs in Nigeria improved slightly in March 2022 to 10 from 8 recorded in February 2022. The new development is captured in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) latest Monthly Oil Market Report for April 2022. Oil rig a global index for measuring activities in the upstream sector when it comes to oil production. However despite the improve oil activities, Nigeria recorded a drop in oil production to 1.354 million barrels per day in March compared to 1.413 million barrels of crude oil daily in January, and 1.378 million barrels per day in February. Operators in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector have consistently attributed the drop in oil production to oil theft, while the government had raised concerns about the exit of international oil companies from Nigeria due to the global push for net zero carbon emission. The difficulties in Nigeria’s oil production is coming at a time oil prices are trading above $100. On Friday Brent Crude, the international benchmark Nigeria’s oil, closed at $106.7 per barrel while US oil, WTI, closed $102.1 per barrel.
TotalEnergies, Shell renew bid for oil exploration wells off SA coast - TotalEnergies and Shell are seeking to drill oil exploration wells off SA’s southwest coast months after two attempts to conduct seismic surveys in the country’s waters were thwarted by legal challenges. TotalEnergies is seeking comments from “interested and affected” parties and has invited them to participate in public meetings on the proposed programme, SLR Consulting, which has been contracted to conduct an environmental assessment, said in the notice dated April 19, seen by Bloomberg. “The main purpose of the pre-application phase is to provide initial notification to stakeholders and specifically to identify and develop the stakeholder database for the project,” SLR said in a response to queries. This will ensure SLR has a comprehensive database for future stakeholder engagement and more information will be released in May, the company said. Shell was blocked from carrying out a seismic survey off the country’s south coast in December after local communities took legal action against it, saying they had not been consulted and the programme may harm marine life and disrupt fishing. Last month Searcher Seismic abandoned exploration off the west coast after a court ordered it to halt activity. Still, in both cases a later ruling could allow a resumption of exploration, though Searcher Seismic said it would not return. TotalEnergies has not responded to requests for comment since Thursday. It has said on its website that it plans to drill one exploration well in the area and then, if it is successful, as many as four more. The notice, sent out on behalf of TotalEnergies, is in three widely spoken languages in SA — English, Afrikaans and isiXhosa — and details plans to explore a 10,000km² part of a block off the coast between Cape Town and Cape Agulhas. The block is 60km-170km offshore and covers water depths of between 700m and 3.2km. In addition to TotalEnergies and Shell, the government’s PetroSA is a partner. TotalEnergies has made two gas condensate discoveries in 2019 and 2020 off the SA coast.
$2.1 billion natural gas facility planned in Guaymas, Sonora -- A Singapore-based company plans to build a major natural gas facility in neighboring Sonora. LNG Alliance intends to invest $2.1 billion in a gas liquefaction facility in Sonoran port city Guaymas, state government officials say. The liquefied natural gas would then be shipped to Japan, Indonesia and other Asian countries, as well as other parts of Mexico itself. Sonoran Governor Alfonso Durazo said that Sonora played a key role in enabling the project. The project will be built on roughly 250 acres of state-owned land administered by the port authority, according to Durazo. In return, he said the state will receive “a small part of the benefits” generated by the company. The facility’s construction is expected to create some 3,000 jobs, and nearly 300 once operations begin.
KOGAS Signs Long-term LNG Import Contract with BP -Korea Gas Corp. (KOGAS) has signed a long-term U.S. LNG sale and purchase agreement (LNG SPA) with BP p.l.c, a comprehensive energy company. KOGAS will import 1.58 million tons of Henry Hub-linked LNG per year for up to 18 years from 2025. A signing ceremony was held at BP headquarters in London on April 21 (local time), with the attendance of representatives of the two companies including Chae Hee-bong, president of KOGAS and Ms. Carol Howle, executive vice president of trading & shipping at BP. KOGAS sealed the deal with BP Singapore Pte., a BP subsidiary in Singapore. BP was selected through an international tender organized by KOGAS in 2018 to secure a stable LNG supply. The two sides signed a head of agreement (HoA) in Sept. 2019. Experts call this contract very advantageous for KOGAS in light of the recent rise in oil and international LNG market prices. They predicted that the contract will make a significant contribution to stabilizing natural gas prices in Korea in the future.
Indian LNG imports down 8% in March --India’s LNG imports in March came in at 2.61bn m3 (about 1.89mn metric tons), down 7.8% year/year, the country’s oil and gas ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) website showed on April 23. The imports were up 4.4% month/month, however. The cumulative imports of 31.9bn m3 (about 23mn mt) for the 12 months to March 31, 2022 (FY22) were lower by 3.4% compared with the corresponding period of the previous year. Meanwhile, LNG imports in March cost $1bn, up from $800mn in the same month last year. In FY22, the import bill was $11.9bn, up from $7.9bn in the same period last year, the PPAC data showed.
Russian oil - Reliance Industries stocks up on Russian oil - Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s biggest oil refining complex, has ordered at least 15 million barrels of Russian oil since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, trade sources said. Reliance has bought an average 5 million barrels a month for the June quarter, the sources said. Reliance did not immediately respond to a Reuters’ email seeking comment. Before the Ukraine war, Indian refiners, including Reliance, rarely bought Russian oil owing to high freight costs.
Pakistan’s petroleum import bill doubled to $15bn in 9 months - Pakistan’s petroleum import bill for nine months of the current fiscal year doubled to $15 billion from $7.5 billion in the same period during the last fiscal year, mainly because of soaring international prices and a steadily surging consumer demand. The price of petroleum products for Pakistan swelled twice the amount in dollar terms, but the former PTI-led government and the incumbent PML-N government still preferred to keep prices at existing levels, which caused losses on both internal and external accounts. Such a grave situation requires the conservation of petroleum products in order to curtail the import bill, but the ruling elites and policymakers stay unaffected. Despite being fully aware that the country is sliding towards bankruptcy and default, they prefer to gain political mileage at the cost of economy, the report stated. It was unwise of the PTI-led government to freeze fuel and power prices till June 2022 at the cost of Rs400 billion as subsidy. However, the new PM Shehbaz Sharif government also preferred to keep petroleum prices unchanged in an attempt to take populist measures to appease voters. The current account deficit touched over $1 billion mark in March 2022 clearly indicating it was a totally unsustainable level. The current account deficit reached $13.2 billion for the first nine months (July-March) period of the current fiscal year. Pakistan’s renowned economist Dr Hafiz A Pasha sees the current account deficit around $19 to $20 billion for this fiscal year. However, the official said the government procured four LNG containers at a rate of $27 per mmbtu so it would have total cost of approximately $350 million. This needs detailed analysis how much it is going to cost per unit electricity when the LNG is purchased at highest rates.
The Coming Russian Struggle For New Markets For Its Oil --Russia can increase domestic energy consumption and boost exports to new markets after some “unfriendly" countries have rejected Russian oil. So says President Vladimir Putin. It sounds simple, but it’s going to be a lot tougher in practice once the next wave of restrictions on Moscow’s oil trade kicks in. So far, there has been little obvious impact on the volume of crude flowing from Russia’s export terminals. While seaborne shipments drifted lower during the first weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was no sudden collapse. And the rate of exports surged in the first week of April, due in part to the easing of storms in the Black Sea, which had led to a backlog of ships waiting to load at a key port. What has changed, though, is where a lot of those ships are going. There has been a big jump in the number of cargoes heading for Asia from ports in the Black Sea, the Baltic and even, in one case, from the Arctic port of Murmansk. Flows of crude to Asian countries from Russia’s western ports have surged from zero in the weeks prior to the invasion to 875,000 barrels a day in the first full week of April. That’s almost as much as Russia’s combined daily shipments to Germany, France, Greece, Italy and the U.K. before the invasion. While Russian oil companies had to offer steep discounts of more than $30 a barrel to sell crude into Europe, they weren’t offering the same price cuts to buyers in India. That’s likely to change, though, as state-run oil refiners switch to privately negotiated deals in the hunt for better terms, instead of buying through public tenders. But there’s likely to be a limit to how much India’s refiners will buy from Russia. Increased imports of Russian crude will displace purchases from elsewhere and buyers will likely be wary of damaging relations with their traditional suppliers in the Middle East. That may put a cap on the volume they are prepared to take from Russia. There is also a question of the chemical make-up of the crude. Every crude oil is different and refineries operate most profitably when they process a specific grade of crude, or blend of grades. Increased volumes of Russian crude would have to displace crudes of similar quality, in terms of their gravity and sulfur content, which may also limit the volumes refiners are able to take. Increased crude flows from ports in western Russia to India and China, perhaps offset by higher flows of Persian Gulf crude to Europe, is also going to put a strain on tanker markets. The greater distances involved will tie up more vessels for longer periods on each delivery. It takes three times as long to carry a cargo of crude from the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea to Sikka in India as it does to deliver it to Trieste in Italy. From the Baltic, which has become Russia’s primary outlet for westbound shipments, the increase is even bigger. It takes a day or two to deliver crude from Primorsk or Ust-Luga to Finland, Lithuania, or Poland, and about a week to ship it to the Netherlands or Germany. A voyage to the west coast of India takes a month, to the east coast, even longer. Given Russia’s pre-invasion mix of destinations for its Baltic Sea crude exports, a full diversion of flows to India would require five to six times as many ships as are typically used. The increased demand will push up prices — good news for ship owners, but bad news for whoever is going to have to absorb the transport costs. The increase is similar for shipments from Russia’s Arctic port of Murmansk. Most cargoes make a week-long voyage to Rotterdam. One is now on a month-long journey to Paradip on the east coast of India. More may be forced to follow, as the EU begins to toughen up its stance on Russian oil imports.
If Putin Wants New Customers for His Crude Oil, He'll Need a Lot More Tankers – Russia can increase domestic energy consumption and boost exports to new markets after some “unfriendly” countries have rejected Russian oil. So says President Vladimir Putin. It sounds simple, but it’s going to be a lot tougher in practice once the next wave of restrictions on Moscow’s oil trade kicks in. So far, there has been little obvious impact on the volume of crude flowing from Russia’s export terminals. While seaborne shipments drifted lower during the first weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was no sudden collapse. And the rate of exports surged in the first week of April, due in part to the easing of storms in the Black Sea, which had led to a backlog of ships waiting to load at a key port.
FUJAIRAH DATA: Oil product stocks drop after rare fuel oil shipment to US | S&P Global Commodity Insights --Oil product stockpiles at the UAE's Port of Fujairah fell to a three-week low as of April 25 after a rare fuel oil shipment to the US, according to the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone and Kpler shipping data. The total inventory was 16.088 million barrels as of April 25, down 5.7% from a week earlier and the lowest since April 4, the FOIZ data published April 27 showed. Stocks of heavy distillates and residues used as fuels for power generation and marine bunkers declined 7.4% over the same period to 11.068 million barrels, the first decline in five weeks, according to the data provided exclusively to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Some 1.06 million barrels of fuel oils were set to be exported out of Fujairah to the US in the week started April 18, only the second such shipment since at least June 2020, the Kpler data showed. The other weekly shipment of fuel oil to the US from Fujairah was in February, according to Kpler. Bunker demand has also improved at Fujairah, sources told S&P Global. Heavy distillates are needed at this time of year as Saudi Arabia looks to use more fuel oils instead of crude to burn for power generation as demand for air conditioning ramps up with summer. Other Middle Eastern countries including the UAE typically rely on natural gas for power generation. Heavy distillates stocks are 14.5% lower than this time last year. Stocks of middle distillates including jet fuel and diesel stood at 1.271 million barrels as of April 25, up 9% from a week earlier and the first gain in three weeks. Middle distillates stocks are down 60.62% over the past year. Light distillates including gasoline and naphtha stocks stood at 3.749 million barrels as of April 25, down 4.9% from a week earlier and the lowest in three weeks. Light distillates are down 31.61% since this time last year. Shipments of naphtha were headed to Japan and Taiwan from Fujairah for the week started April 18 while 707,000 barrels of gasoline were destined for Kenya, according to the Kpler data.
Column: Oil prices paralysed between Russia sanctions and China lockdowns: Kemp (Reuters) - Portfolio investors purchased petroleum last week for the first time in four weeks, but overall positioning remained subdued by the high cost of margin and large uncertainties surrounding both crude supply and demand. Hedge funds and other money managers bought the equivalent of 14 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to April 19. But the position has remained unchanged since mid-March as opposing concerns about the sanctions-related loss of production from Russia and lockdown-related loss of consumption in China have cancelled each other out. The combined net long position of 553 million barrels is in only the 39th percentile for all weeks since 2013 while the ratio of long to short positions at 4.59:1 is somewhat higher in the 59th percentile. Fund managers remain moderately bullish about the outlook for prices but extreme volatility has made it risky and expensive to maintain existing positions or initiate new ones. Reflecting higher margin calls, the total number of open futures positions for all categories of trader is the lowest for seven years, although it has stabilised in the last fortnight after falling sharply since mid-February. The most recent week showed hedge funds buying Brent (+27 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (+3 million) and U.S. diesel (+1 million) but selling NYMEX and ICE WTI (-16 million) and European gas oil (-1 million). Fund managers rotated out of WTI into Brent, likely reflecting the massive offer of extra barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the United States and possible European Union sanctions on imports from Russia. Overall, funds are much more bullish for middle distillates and other refined products than for crude, reflecting strain on the refining system from strong demand for diesel and gas oil by manufacturers and freight firms.
Crude futures open lower on likely Fed rate hike, Shanghai lockdown - The Hindu BusinessLine - US Fed may hike rate by 0.5 point, China tightens curbs to control Covid spread Crude oil futures traded lower on exchanges in early trade as China continued with lockdown in Shanghai, affecting the demand prospects from a major consumer. Added to this, the expected move by the US Fed Reserve to hike interest rates affected the price movements. At 10.10 am, the June Brent oil futures were at $103.55, down by 2.90 per cent; and June crude oil futures on WTI were at $98.99, down by 3.02 per cent. May crude oil futures were trading at ₹7,623 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in the early deals against the previous close of ₹7,824, down by 2.57 per cent; and June futures were trading at ₹7,578 against the previous close of ₹7,777, down by 2.56 per cent. According to a Bloomberg report, China’s demand for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel is expected to fall by 20 per cent year-on-year in April. It said that that is equivalent to a drop in crude oil consumption of 1.2 million barrels a day. The markets had noted the Shanghai authorities erecting fences outside residential buildings to control the Covid outbreak foring 25 million people to remain indoor in the region. 0.5 point hike on table Added to this, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that a half-point interest rate increase ‘will be on the table’ when the Fed meets in May. In his crude oil outlook for the day, Rahul Kalantri, VP (Commodities) of Mehta Equities Ltd, said crude oil lost nearly 5 per cent last week on demand concerns. Oil prices extended losses on Monday amid persistent worries that prolonged Covid lockdowns in Shanghai and potential US rate hikes would dent global economic growth and demand for fuel. Natural gas fell hastened by a larger-than-expected weekly storage build, he said. However, banning Russian oil by European Union and decline in crude oil inventories in the US supported oil prices at lower levels. IMF revised down global growth due to Russia-Ukraine crisis and Federal Reserve Chairman also gave signal for aggressive rate hikes last week. He said the dollar index crossed two-year highs and hit 101 mark. Strength in the dollar also pushed oil prices lower. “We expect crude oil prices may show some more pressure in today’s session. Crude oil is having support at $97.20-$95.40 and resistance is at $103.10–105.00, In rupee terms, crude oil has support at ₹7,650-7,520, while resistance at ₹7,920–8,050,” he said. May natural gas futures were trading at ₹504.50 on MCX in the initial hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹520.40, down by 3.06 per cent. NCDEX On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), May dhaniya futures were trading at ₹12,670 in the initial hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹12,480, up by 1.52 per cent. May cottonseed oilcake contracts were trading at ₹2,827 on NCDEX in the initial hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹2,883, down by 1.94 per cent.
Crude oil futures continue to fall as China extends lockdown, recession fears | S&P Global Commodity Insights - Crude oil futures continued to decline in mid-morning Asian trade April 25 as China intensified its COVID-19 related lockdowns and as the US Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike stance fueled recession fears, which weighed on demand sentiment. At 11:02 am Singapore time (0302GMT), the ICE June Brent futures contract was down $2.85/b (2.66%) from the previous close at $103.80/b, while the NYMEX June light sweet crude contract fell $2.86/b (2.8%) at $99.20/b. China's COVID-19 woes continued to worsen with 51 new deaths reported on April 24, the highest one-day toll to-date, up from 39 the day before, according to media reports. The worsening infection rate has led to tightening enforcement and subsequently a hard lockdown in Shanghai. "For oil, reports that Chinese oil demand has fallen by the most since the Wuhan lockdown of 2020 reversed any thoughts of a weekend rally," SPI Asset Management Managing Partner Stephen Innes said in an April 24 note. "China's zero-COVID policy means that oil demand will be taking a hit as authorities try to bring the outbreak under control," Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING said in an April 25 note. "Refiners have already cut operating rates significantly due to lower demand. There are reports that state refiner, Sinopec, cut rates at two refiners in Shanghai by around 18% over the first 20 days of April." Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's increasingly aggressive stance on tightening monetary policy, with a 50 basis point interest rate hike expected, has rattled financial markets and raised the possibility of an economic recession, industry sources said. Tighter credit spurred consumers and companies to further rein in spending, which is weighing on demand sentiment. According to the latest forecast by independent research firm Rystad Energy on April 22, global oil demand is expected to fall by 1.4 million b/d to 99.6 million b/d on average, with it not expected to recover until 2023. Elsewhere, Libya's 120,000 b/d Zawiya refinery has been damaged due to armed clashes on April 22, the state-owned National Oil Corp said.
WTI Falls to Two-Week Low on China Demand Fears, Firmer USD-- With the exception of the advance in the ULSD contract, oil futures nearest delivery settled the Monday session with sharp losses. The drop was triggered by concerns over expanded quarantine restrictions in China after health authorities discovered a new cluster of Omicron cases in Beijing, a city of 21 million people, prompting citywide testing and renewed controls on movement in and out of the affected area. China's oil demand looks more uncertain today than it did just a week ago when health authorities proposed to loosen up COVID-19 lockdowns in the nation's financial hub -- Shanghai. Since then, the death toll in the city nearly tripled, spooking officials in Beijing and strengthening the case for continued lockdown measures. According to various estimates, China's daily oil consumption may have fallen by as much as 1.4 million barrels per day or 20% over the March to April period. Investors are worried that strict policies China put in place to combat the Omicron surge will further disrupt global supply chains. Continued disruptions to manufacturing and the movement of goods since the start of the pandemic have contributed to U.S. inflation reaching a four-decade high. New lockdowns in China and Russia's war in Ukraine are likely to add to price pressures. The German government on Monday raised its 2022 inflation forecast to 6.1%, up from 3.3% expected just three months earlier. German producer price index, a measure of inflation on a wholesale level topped 30% in March, according to the country's Federal Statistics Office, making it the highest level since the agency began collecting data 73 years ago. Western sanctions on Russia's coal and oil exports -- and efforts by the European Union to slash consumption of its natural gas -- have pushed prices up even further. Due to those factors, Morgan Stanley revised down its 2022 economic growth forecasts for the euro area from 3% to 2.7%, anticipating a meaningful slowdown in economic growth in the second half of this year. Against these headwinds, the U.S. dollar index climbed on Monday to its highest trade since April 2020 when the global pandemic shuttered a large chunk of the global economy, squeezing investors into the safe-haven currencies like the dollar. The greenback sliced through the basket of foreign currencies at the start of the week to finish at 101.769, while the Chinese yuan eroded further against the dollar. On a session, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for June delivery fell $3.53 to $98.54 per barrel (bbl), and June Brent dropped $4.33 to $102.32 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB May futures declined 6.52 cents to $3.2398 per gallon, while the front-month ULSD contact rallied 15.23 cents to $4.0909 per gallon.
OIL FUTURES: Crude rebounds after sharp drop amid China demand concerns - Crude oil futures rose moderately in mid-morning Asian trade April 26 to recoup some losses after China lockdowns and a surging US dollar sent crude prices lower at the start of the week. At 10:42 am Singapore time (0242 GMT), the ICE June Brent futures contract was up 85 cents/b (0.83%) from the previous close at $103.17/b, while the NYMEX June light sweet crude contract rose 63 cents/b (0.63%) to $99.17/b. "A rebound with risk appetite and overdone concerns about demand destruction helped oil pare losses," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note on April 26. Chinese authorities on April 24 tightened restrictions in parts of Shanghai, including erecting fences around apartment buildings with COVID-19 infected individuals. Similarly, authorities in Beijing have ordered 3.5 million residents and workers in the biggest district of Chaoyang to report for three coronavirus tests this week to stem a surge in cases, according to media reports. "COVID worries in China weighed heavily on oil prices yesterday ... the key for the market is how the situation in Beijing develops in the coming days and week," Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said in an April 26 note. Patterson noted that the potential EU ban on Russian oil remains the key upside risk for oil markets. "While it is looking more likely that we will ultimately see a ban, the uncertainty is how quickly a ban will be introduced," he said. On the supply side, production from shuttered fields in Libya will resume "in the coming days," the country's oil and gas minister Mohamed Oun said in a statement April 24. "Supply fears are not the primary focus for energy traders and now you have a surging dollar that is adding extra pressure across all commodities. The oil market could easily become very tight if China shows they are close to reversing their stance on lockdowns, but right now that doesn't seem to be happening anytime soon," Moya added. Meanwhile, Dubai crude swaps and intermonth spreads were lower in mid-morning trade in Asia April 26 from the previous close.
Oil Spikes on Reports Russia Halting Gas Supply to Poland -- Oil futures rallied more than 3% in afternoon trade Tuesday, with both crude benchmarks retracing Monday's losses on reports of Russia halting gas supplies to Poland in a sign of major escalation in the standoff over Ukraine after the German government indicated an embargo on Russian oil imports is feasible. Poland's main gas supplier, PGNiG, confirmed on Tuesday gas flows through Yamal pipeline with a daily capacity of 24.6 million cubic meters has been suspended, shuttering a vital artery for gas shipments into the European Union. European gas prices surged as much as 17% in late afternoon Tuesday as traders calculated the risk of other European countries being hit next. The threat of cutoff has loomed for weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded gas payments in Russia's national currency the ruble. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki furthered that his government received threats from Gazprom that unless Poland paid for Russian supplies in rubles, gas shipments would be stopped. Last year, PGNiG imported 9.9 billion cubic meters of Russian gas under long-term contracts, meeting around 63% of Poland's demand. Poland will be able to replace Russian gas imports with Norwegian gas once the Baltic Pipe natural gas pipeline with capacity of 10 bcm connecting Norwegian gas networks with Polish and Danish markets comes online in October. Interestingly, the cutoff comes hours after German Economy Minister Robert Habeck suggested Russia's oil embargo is now manageable for Germany, with Germany the largest importer of Russian oil and gas in the European Union. If realized, the development would mark a major reversal of Germany's position on imports of Russian energy imports. Limiting the upside for the oil complex are concerns over larger-than-expected economic slowdown in China due to prolonged and more widespread lockdowns which are causing a deeper slump in personal consumption and investments that are leading to heightened stagflationary risks for Asian region. At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for June delivery advanced $3.16 to $101.70 bbl, and June Brent rallied $2.67 to $104.99 bbl. NYMEX RBOB May futures gained 9.9 cents to $3.3388 gallon ahead of expiration Friday (4/29) afternoon, with the prompt spread settling at 2.78cts backwardation. May ULSD contact rallied 37.70 cents to $4.4679 gallon -- a record high settlement on the spot continuous chart, spiking on a tight distillate market, with U.S. distillate stocks last measured at 108.735 million bbl, the lowest stock level since May 2008, while 20% below the five-year average. June ULSD futures settled at a 65.06 cents discount to the May contract, which expires Friday afternoon.
Oil prices dip as dollar soars -- Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as a soaring US dollar made barrels more expensive and coronavirus outbreaks in China clouded the economic outlook in the world’s biggest importer of crude oil. Supplies remained tight in the world’s largest oil producer, the US, as government data showed crude stockpiles rose modestly last week as fuel inventories declined. Brent crude futures fell by $1.08, or 1%, to $103.91 a barrel as of 1640 GMT. US WTI crude futures dropped $1.19 a barrel to $100.51. The dollar rose to its highest in five years, making oil purchases more expensive for holders of other currencies. “This (is) a risk-off environment with a stronger US dollar and mobility restrictions in the second largest oil consumer, China,” said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Stauvono. The US Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by just 692,000 barrels last week, short of expectations, while distillate inventories, which include diesel and jet fuel, fell to their lowest since May 2008. Energy markets worldwide are dealing with massive disruptions to supply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions slapped on Moscow by the United States and its allies. UK major Shell said it would no longer accept refined oil blended with Russian products, according to trading documents, while Exxon Mobil said it had declared force majeure on its Sakhalin-1 operations in the far eastern part of Russia. This week, Moscow escalated its use of energy as a cudgel against countries opposed to the invasion. Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Wednesday it halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland. European Commission chief said Russia was using fossil fuels to blackmail the EU but added the era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe was coming to an end. Germany, which has relied heavily on Russia energy, faces a hit to economic growth as it pushes ahead with attempts to become independent of Russian gas and oil imports. Germany’s economy minister said plans to take control of the PCK Schwedt refinery, majority-owned by Rosneft and the last big buyer of Russian crude in Germany, were progressing.
Oil Futures Mixed, ULSD Rallies on Tight Distillate Supply --- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange turned mixed in late morning trade Wednesday after an inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed commercial oil stocks for the week ended April 22 increased in line with consensus, while refiners unexpectedly reduced run rates and distillate stocks dropped by a larger-than-expected margin to the lowest level in 14 years, rallying front-month ULSD futures above $4.57 gallon. At 107.3 million barrels (bbl), U.S. distillate stocks now stand 21% below the five-year average, having dropped by 1.4 million bbl from the previous week. Market analysts expected distillate inventories to have declined by a more modest 100,000 bbl. The larger-than-expected drop came even as demand for middle of the barrel fuels stalled below 4 million barrels per day (bpd) for the fifth consecutive week. For gasoline, EIA data showed demand unexpectedly dropped 129,000 bpd last week to a four-week low 8.739 million bpd despite the seasonal pattern for a pickup in consumption. Stocks fell 1.6 million bbl to 230.8 million bbl, compared with analyst expectations for inventories to have fallen by 100,000 bbl. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose 691,000 bbl to 414.4 million bbl, and are now about 16% below the five-year average, EIA said. Analysts expected crude stockpiles to have risen 600,000 bbl from the prior week. Oil stored at the Cushing tank farm in Oklahoma -- the delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures -- increased 1.3 million bbl from the previous week to 27.5 million bbl. U.S. crude oil production remained unchanged from the previous week at 11.9 million bpd, according to EIA. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.4 million bpd, down 1.6% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million bpd, down 2.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million bpd over the past four weeks, down 7.4% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied to the U.S. market was up 23.9% compared with the same four-week period last year. Near 11:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX June WTI futures dropped $0.87 to $100.78 bbl, and the international crude benchmark Brent contract declined $0.76 to $104.28 bbl. NYMEX May RBOB futures gained 4.41 cents to $3.3865 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures advanced 8.85 cents to $4.5564 gallon.
Oil Prices Edge up as Worldwide Supply Concerns Remain at the Fore (Reuters) -Oil prices rose modestly on Wednesday due to ongoing concerns about tight worldwide supply, underscored by another drawdown in U.S. distillate and gasoline inventories. The market rebounded late in the session after losing ground for most of the day, in part due to strength in the dollar and as China grapples with fresh coronavirus outbreaks that are sapping demand. However, Russia's move to cut off gas shipments to two European nations added to overall worries about tight energy supply. Brent crude futures settled up 33 cents to $105.32 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 32 cents to $102.02 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by just 692,000 barrels last week, short of expectations, while distillate inventories, which include diesel and jet fuel, fell to their lowest since May 2008. [EIA/S] The drop in distillate stocks helped boost U.S. heating oil futures to an all-time closing record at more than $4.67 a gallon. Refiners process crude into diesel, jet fuel and other products, and U.S. refiners have been running at high rates to meet demand, particularly in Europe, a big user of diesel fuel. Energy markets worldwide are dealing with massive disruptions to supply following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions slapped on Moscow by the United States and its allies. U.K. major Shell said it would no longer accept refined oil blended with Russian products, according to trading documents, while Exxon Mobil said it had declared force majeure on its Sakhalin-1 operations in the far eastern part of Russia. This week, Moscow escalated its use of energy as a cudgel against countries opposed to the invasion. Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Wednesday it halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland. "Russia wants the payments in roubles for gas, and the fear is that before long they may want to do the same with oil," said Claudio Galimberti, senior vice president of analysis at Rystad. European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen said Russia was using fossil fuels to blackmail the EU but added the era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe was coming to an end.
Crude falls on China’s COVID-19 concerns as mass testing begins - Crude oil futures fell in mid-morning Asian trade on April 28 as news of China’s mass testing for COVID-19 weighed on sentiment, overshadowing supply-side concerns of a modest US inventory build and looming risk of further Russian energy sanctions. At 11:00 am Singapore time (0300 GMT), the ICE June Brent futures contract was down $1.63/b (1.55%) from the previous close at $103.69/b, while the NYMEX June light sweet crude contract fell $1.44/b (1.41%) at $100.58/b. On April 27, China reported 48 new symptomatic and 2 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases in Beijing, state broadcaster CCTV reported April 28. Beijing rolled out a mass testing program with millions of people in Beijing taking their 2nd COVID-19 test of the week on April 27. In Hangzhou, similar measures were undertaken as state media reported that mass testing also began in the city with a population of 12.2 million. "Beijing is unlikely to adjust the current COVID policy anytime soon despite economic and social costs rising rapidly," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management said in an April 28 note. "However, the CCP may fine tune its COVID approach gradually, but the roadmap and triggers for this change remain the top macro uncertainty for oil markets." On the supply side, a Russian oil embargo by the EU looks increasingly likely after Russian gas exporter Gazprom fully suspended gas deliveries to Bulgaria and Poland April 27 due to non-payment in rubles, coupled with Germany signaling it might be ready to support a gradual ban on Russian oil, according to market analysts. Germany would be able to deal with a complete embargo on Russian crude and oil product imports, its economy minister Robert Habeck said April 27, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported earlier. Habeck added that Europe's biggest economy has slashed its dependence on Russian crude to 12% of imports from 35% before the invasion of Ukraine, signaling that they might be ready to support a gradual ban on Russian oil.
Oil drops as China fuel demand falls on looming COVID-19 lockdown concerns -- Oil prices decreased on Thursday as declining fuel demand in China due to the spread of COVID-19 eased supply concerns. International benchmark Brent crude cost $103.27 per barrel at 0600 GMT for a 1.60% decrease after closing the previous session at $104.95 a barrel. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $100.44 per barrel at the same time for a 1.55% fall after the previous session closed at $102.02 a barrel. The drop in oil prices was triggered by lockdowns in the world's largest importer, China, meaning less fuel demand while relieving pressure on global supply and demand. China continues to battle with COVID-19, risking further lockdowns in other major cities. Shanghai has been in quarantine since the beginning of March, but the possibility of the virus spreading to Beijing, a city with a population of more than 21 million, has been raised, along with the possibility of Shanghai-like closures. The Beijing Center for Epidemic Control and Prevention reported that one region where new cases were detected had been declared high risk, while seven regions had been designated medium risk. Additionally, data showing an increase in US commercial crude oil inventories by 700,000 barrels to 414.4 million barrels last week also contributed to lowering prices.
Oil Soars with Expectation of the EU Ban on Russian Crude | Rigzone - Oil closed at the highest level in nearly two weeks as prospects for a European Union ban on crude imports from Russia seemed more likely, with an extra jolt of support coming from a growing global diesel supply crunch. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 3.3% higher in New York after swinging between gains and losses earlier. Germany is prepared to stop buying Russian oil in a phased approach, clearing the way for a European Union ban on Russian imports. Fresh reports Thursday fueled a jump in prices. U.S. diesel futures extended its record rally as supplies tighten in the wake of restricted Russian exports. “The news that the EU is getting close to banning Russian energy imports gave the market a firmer tone but now heating oil is taking the lead, driving U.S. crude futures higher,” said Spencer Vosko, oil director with energy brokerage Liquidity Energy. The sharp gains in WTI futures shrank its discount to international benchmark Brent crude to the narrowest level since November. Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck said this week that the country has already cut its reliance on Russian oil enough to make a full embargo “manageable,” potentially laying the groundwork for a continent-wide ban that would upend the global trade in petroleum. The U.S. and U.K. have already pledged to end imports from Russia. “With Germany open to it, the probability of a ban has increased further,” Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG, said. “The question will be if also Hungary supports it or not to get it through as it needs to be unanimous.” Meanwhile, oil demand in China is weaker while prices for refined products elsewhere are surging. The gap between the first and second month of New York heating oil futures has also climbed to a record of nearly 85 cents a gallon ahead of the May contract’s expiry on Friday. WTI for June delivery rose $3.34 to settle at $105.36 a barrel in New York. Brent for June settlement gained $2.27 to $107.59. China’s top state-run oil processor said during an earnings call that the resurgence of Covid-19 was slowing fuel demand. Hangzhou is the latest Chinese city to start mass virus testing. Traders are also grappling with just how big the hit to Russian production will be as the country’s invasion of Ukraine continues. While crude supply is keenly focused on Russian flows, replacement barrels from the North Sea are set to dwindle in the coming months. Loadings of the grades that make up the dated Brent benchmark will fall to the lowest level since at least 2007 in June, while shipments from the Johan Sverdrup will hit a 21-month low amid a raft of planned maintenance.
Oil up for fourth day as supply fears outweigh COVID-19 lockdowns Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Friday as fears over Russian supply disruption outweighed the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns in China, the world’s biggest crude importer. Brent crude futures rose $1.99, or 1.9 per cent, to $109.58 a barrel by 1:04 p.m. EDT (1704 GMT), after gaining 2.1 per cent in the previous session. The front-month June contract expires on Friday. The more active July contract rose by $1.67 to $108.93. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.40, or 1.3 per cent, to $106.76 a barrel, after advancing by 3.3 per cent on Thursday. Brent and WTI are set to finish up for the week. For the month, Brent should finish up 1.5 per cent and WTI up 6.4 per cent. It would be their fifth straight monthly increases, and prices have been buoyed by the increased likelihood that Germany will join other European Union member states in an embargo on Russian oil. In fuel prices, U.S. heating oil futures, a proxy for diesel prices, climbed to $5.65 per gallon during the session, an all-time record. On Wednesday, Russia cut gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland. “There are rising concerns about the conflict disrupting more supply,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. “The market is getting prepared for the possibility that we’re going to see more supply cut off going into the weekend.” Russian oil production could fall by as much as 17 per cent this year, an economy ministry document seen by Reuters showed on Wednesday, as Western sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hurt investments and exports. Sanctions have also made it harder for Russian ships to send oil to customers, prompting Exxon Mobil Corp to declare force majeure for its Sakhalin-1 operations and curtail output.
Oil Prices Reverse Late in Session as Heating Oil Contract Plunges - Oil prices fell on Friday, reversing in volatile trade, pulled downward by the U.S. heating oil contract that plummeted by more than 20% at one point on the day of its expiration. The front-month U.S. heating oil contract, which is a proxy for diesel prices, soared to a record high of $5.8595 a gallon before falling as low as $4.4067 a gallon. Diesel futures have climbed as investors worry about tight supplies globally following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The heating oil contract expired on Friday, along with the global Brent benchmark and U.S. gasoline futures. Volumes in all three front-month contracts was low, creating outsized volatility in the market and leading to late-day sell-offs, analysts said. "The fireworks were all in the expiring diesel contract," said Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. "Today's expiry is especially volatile and may not be reflective of actual tightness." The more-active second-month Brent crude futures contract fell 12 cents to settle at $107.14 a barrel. The expiring front-month contract rose $1.75 to settle at $109.34 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude, which does not expire on Friday, fell 67 cents to settle at $104.69 a barrel, as traders sold energy contracts across the board. The front-month heating oil contract's volatility was not mirrored in the more-active second-month U.S. heating oil contract, which gained $0.0088 a gallon to settle at $4.0172 a gallon. Both Brent and WTI rose for the week and posted their fifth straight monthly gain. Brent ended the month up 1.3%, while WTI ended up 4.4%. Prices have been buoyed by fears that Russian supply will continue to be disrupted by the conflict in Ukraine. Futures rose this week on the increased likelihood that Germany will join other European Union member states in an embargo on Russian oil. Russian oil production could fall by as much as 17% this year, an economy ministry document seen by Reuters showed on Wednesday, as Western sanctions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine hurt investments and exports.
Oil prices snap 3-day winning streak but book April rise - Oil futures snapped a three-day winning streak Friday, but booked weekly and monthly gains as supply worries tied to Russia's invasion of Ukraine outweighed concerns over a hit to demand from China's COVID lockdowns.Meanwhile, May heating oil futures expired at a record, with tight distillate stocks also sending cash prices for all-important diesel fuel soaring.West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery fell 67 cents, or 0.6%, to close at $104.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with the U.S. benchmark logging at 2.6% weekly rise and a 4.4% April gain, based on the most actively traded contract.June Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose $1.75, or 1.6%, to close at $109.34 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. July Brent, the most actively traded contract, fell 12 cents, or 0.1%, to $107.14 a barrel.Meanwhile, diesel prices have surged amid tight supplies of distillates on both sides of the Atlantic, Fritsch noted. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that distillate inventories dropped by 1.4 million barrels last week, versus forecasts for a decline of just 100,000 barrels.
Oil Achieves Fifth Straight Months Of Gains As Supply Fears Trump Demand Concerns - Despite oil trading's extreme volatility of late and mixed results for the session overall, the commodity on Friday achieved a fifth straight month of gains – the longest streak since early 2018 – with demand concerns viewed as fleeting but supply worries persistent. West Texas Intermediate settled down 67 cents at $104.69 per barrel, while Brent for June settlement, which expired Friday, settled up $1.75 to $109.34 (the more active July contract settled down 12 cents to $107.14). The late-session sell-offs were attributed to low volumes in the front-month contracts of U.S. heating oil (a proxy for diesel prices), Brent, and U.S. gasoline futures, according to analysts: "The fireworks were all in the expiring diesel contract; today's expiry is especially volatile and may not be reflective of actual tightness." Oil prices for the past few weeks have been influenced by China's Covid lockdowns and the European Union coming closer to enacting an embargo on oil from Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. "Next week will be critical as we will get official selling prices from Saudi as a good litmus test for how much demand is suffering in China." But tight global supplies remain the dominant concern for many analysts, especially as there seems to be no end in sight of the Russian/Ukraine war; and on Friday Chevron Corp, despite equipment shortages, announced that it had lifted its production target in the Permian Basin in Texas by 15 percent this year (to the equivalent of about 725,000 barrels per day). The expansion follows similar moves by Continental Resources, Hess Corp., and Matador Resources amid sky-high crude and gasoline prices, and Chevron CFO Pierre Breber told media his company is now "back on the trajectory that we were on pre-Covid" in the biggest U.S. shale basin. Overseas, U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson will meet with key oil and gas producers in a bid to spur new field developments in the North Sea, whose new projects up until recently were dwindling in the face of pressure to tackle climate change. The roundtable discussion was originally scheduled for May 4 but will now take place in the coming weeks, according to insiders. In other oil-related news on Friday, Exxon Mobil's first quarter profits were revealed to be $5.5 billion, up from $2.7 billion in the same period last year and despite the company taking a $3.4 billion after-tax charge related to its Sakhalin-1 operation in Russia. CEO Darren Woods said in a statement, "Earnings increased modestly, as strong margin improvement and underlying growth was offset by weather and timing impacts."
Russia reported a large fire at an oil depot in the same area that its officials claimed was earlier attacked by Ukrainian helicopters - A large fire has erupted at a Russian oil depot in Bryansk, a city near the Ukrainian border, authorities said Monday, according to multiple media reports.The incident has so far not been linked to the war in Ukraine, but the depot is located in the same area that Russia accused Ukraine of attacking last week, Reuters reported.On April 14, Russian officials said Ukrainian helicopters had struck residential buildings and injured seven in the region, according toReuters. Ukrainian officials called the accusation "a plan to carry out terrorist acts to whip up anti-Ukrainian hysteria," per the outlet.According to the Russian emergencies ministry, the fire took place at 2 a.m. Moscow time in a facility owned by Russian oil pipeline giant Transneft, per Reuters.Footage of what appears to be part of the oil depot engulfed in flames has been shared on Telegram, The Moscow Times first reported.Russia's emergencies ministry told state news agency TASS that there have not been any casualties due to the fire, citing preliminary information.There are also no plans to evacuate the city of 400,000 people, and kindergartens and schools will continue with classes as planned, Bryansk city authorities said, per TASS. Citing Russian television, The Moscow Times reported that the fire affected two facilities — a civilian site holding 10,000 tons of fuel and a military storage facility holding 5,000 tons.
Russian rouble hits near 2-year high vs euro - (Reuters) - The Russian rouble strengthened on Monday, firming past 77 against the euro to a near two-year high, helped by tax payments that companies are due to make this week and as the market looked ahead to a central bank rate decision on Friday. By 1453 GMT, the rouble had gained 3.6% to trade at 77.25 versus the euro , earlier clipping 76.96, its strongest mark since June 2020. The rouble was 3% stronger against the dollar at 73.17, hovering around levels seen before Feb. 24, when Russia sent tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine. Trading activity remains subdued compared with levels seen before Feb. 24. Movements in the rouble are artificially limited by capital controls imposed by the central bank because it lost the ability to support the rouble through FX interventions after Western sanctions froze nearly half of the country's reserves. The currency was supported by a record 3 trillion roubles ($40.25 billion) that companies are due to pay in taxes this month, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters. To make the payments, some export-focused firms need to sell foreign currency. The tax boost may push the rouble higher, said Veles Capital in a note, but an expected rate cut by the central bank on Friday may dampen optimism. Market players are looking ahead to the central bank rate decision, after two emergency rate moves in the last month - a hike to 20% in late February, followed by a cut to 17% on April 8 . A Reuters poll suggested the bank will cut by 200 basis points to 15%. In another sign that the state wants to stimulate economic growth, President Vladimir Putin on Monday proposed reducing the subsidised mortgage rate to 9% from 12%. At a televised meeting on the economy, Putin praised the central bank's and government's "timely" decisions in helping stabilise the economic situation. The central bank on Monday said it was shortening the time frame it uses to calculate the official exchange rate by one hour, a move that Sberbank CIB analysts said suggested the regulator was noting an improvement in the liquidity situation on the foreign exchange market.
Russia warns Britain for provoking Ukraine - Russia warned Britain on Tuesday that if it continued to provoke Ukraine to strike targets in Russia then there would be an immediate “proportional response”. Russia’s defence ministry cited statements from Britain’s armed forces minister James Heappey who told BBC radio that it was entirely legitimate for Ukraine to hunt targets in the depths of Russia to disrupt logistics and supply lines. “We would like to underline that London’s direct provocation of the Kiev regime into such actions, if such actions are carried out, will immediately lead to our proportional response,” Russia’s defence ministry said. “As we have warned, the Russian Armed Forces are in round-the-clock readiness to launch retaliatory strikes with high-precision long-range weapons at decision-making centers in Kyiv.” The defence ministry also said that if such Russian strikes were made it would not necessarily be a problem if representatives of a certain Western country were located at Ukraine’s decision making centres. Britain’s Heappey said it was completely legitimate for Ukraine to strike Russian logistics lines and fuel supplies and he acknowledged the weapons the international community was now providing had the range to be used in Russia.
US, allies promise heavy arms for Ukraine, shrug off Russian nuclear war warning - The United States and its allies pledged new packages of ever heavier weapons for Ukraine during a meeting on Tuesday at a German air base, brushing off a threat from Moscow that their support for Kyiv could lead to nuclear war. US officials have switched emphasis this week from speaking mainly about helping Ukraine defend itself to bolder talk of a Ukrainian victory that would weaken Russia’s ability to threaten its neighbours. Meanwhile, the powerful secretary of Russia’s Security Council said Western and Ukrainian government policy was leading to the breakup of Ukraine, and he accused Washington of seeking to instil in Ukrainians hatred for everything Russian. NATO allies have lately approved shipments of hundreds of millions of dollars in arms, including artillery and drones they held back from sending in earlier phases of the war, and want their allies to do the same. “Nations from around the world stand united in our resolve to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s imperial aggression,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said, welcoming officials from more than 40 countries to Ramstein Air Base in Germany, headquarters of US air power in Europe. “Ukraine clearly believes that it can win, and so does everyone here.” In a notable shift, Germany, where the government had come under pressure after refusing Ukrainian pleas for heavy weapons, announced it would now send “Gepard” light tanks with anti-aircraft guns. “The real significance of this decision lies not in the difference Gepards may make on the battlefield, but in the signal it sends,” US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, assess that Russia will rely heavily on artillery strikes to pound Ukrainian positions while moving in ground forces from several directions to try to envelop and wipe out a significant chunk of Ukraine’s military. But Washington also estimates that many Russian units are depleted, with some operating with personnel losses as high as 30% – a level considered by the US military to be too high to keep fighting indefinitely. US officials cite anecdotes like Russian tanks with lone drivers and no crew, and substandard equipment that is either prone to breakdowns or out of date.
Russia vows “lightning” response to NATO as war threatens to spill beyond Ukraine - Following the declaration by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this week that the US is seeking to “weaken” Russia, and that the US is already in a “fight” with the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his most open threat to date to retaliate against NATO members for their involvement in the war. “If someone decides to intervene into the ongoing events from the outside and create unacceptable strategic threats for us, they should know that our response to those oncoming blows will be swift, lightning-fast,” Putin told Russian lawmakers on Wednesday. “We have all the tools for this — ones that no one can brag about. And we won’t brag. We will use them if needed. And I want everyone to know this. We have already taken all the decisions on this.” Also on Wednesday, Russian officials said that a large batch of weapons supplied to Ukraine by NATO members were destroyed in a missile strike in Central Ukraine. A day prior, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had warned that NATO-supplied weapons shipments inside Ukraine “will be a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces.” “Warehouses, including in the west of Ukraine, have become such a target more than once. How else could it be? NATO is essentially going to war with Russia through a proxy and arming that proxy. War means war.” On Wednesday, Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in response to crippling economic sanctions levied by the US and European Union. The Kremlin is also threatening to end its supplies to other NATO members, including Germany, which is highly dependent on Russia for natural gas.
Boris Johnson admits 'realistic possibility' that Russia could win the war in Ukraine, and that it may last until the end of 2023 - Boris Johnson has said there is a "realistic possibility" that the war in Ukraine could continue until the end of next year, but insisted Vladimir Putin would not succeed in trying to "grind the Ukrainians down."During a press conference in India Friday, the prime minister was asked about comments from Western officials, who suggested Putin was "still in a position to win," despite making strategic blunders, and whether the war could run on until the end of 2023.Johnson said: "The sad thing is, that is a realistic possibility. "Putin has a huge army. He has a very difficult political position because he's made a catastrophic blunder. The only option he now has really is to continue to try to use his his appalling, grinding approach — led by artillery — trying to grind the Ukrainians down. And he's very close to securing a land bridge in Mariupol."Warning the situation remained "unpredictable," the prime minister praised the "incredible heroism of the Ukrainians and their willingness to fight." He added: "No matter what military superiority Vladimir Putin may be able to bring to bear in the next few months — and I agree it could be it could be a long period — he will not be able to conquer the spirit of the Ukrainian people."That is just an observable fact. On the contrary, what he is doing every day is strengthening and reinforcing that will to resist in the people of Ukraine."Johnson, who is under pressure back home over the long-running partygate saga, said Britain and its allies would "look at what more we can do militarily," highlighting the shipment of armored cars being sent to the region and plans to help "backfill" tanks in Poland, as well as economic sanctions, vowing "wave after wave of intensifying pressure on Putin."
Russia’s military has lost so much equipment in Ukraine it will be incapable of fighting another war for ‘years’, analysts claim -- Russia will be unable to fight another war for years because of catastrophic kit losses in Ukraine, defence experts said.'It will take years for Russia to rebuild its inventories', according to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.In fact, Putin will struggle in the Donbas because vital 'inventories are getting low', analyst Mark Cancian told The Times.Wrecked Kremlin equipment now amounts to 939 tanks, 185 planes, 155 helicopters, 421 artillery units and eight ships, the Ukrainian army estimated this morning. Kyiv estimates its forces have now killed 22,400 Russian soldiers, up from 22,100 yesterday.Military analyst Henry Boyd from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Putin could still draw on sizeable, Soviet-era reserve forces stationed across Russia.But most Russian soldiers could be unable to use it, he added. Mr Boyd told the n ewspaper: 'They kept a large number of Soviet-era tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery.'You can probably compensate in terms of sheer numbers by reactivating older systems but there is a question mark over whether they will have the crews to man the vehicles and if they do, whether they have had sufficient training.'
Finland and Sweden prepare to join NATO - The imperialist powers in North America and Europe are preparing to dramatically intensify their military encirclement of Russia aimed at regime change by accepting Finland and Sweden into NATO. The ruling elites in both Scandinavian countries, which maintained formal neutrality after World War II, have seized on the Russian government’s invasion of Ukraine to overcome long-standing popular opposition to the aggressive US-led military alliance. Finland’s parliament, with the approval of the country’s Social Democrat-led government under Prime Minister Sanna Marin, began debating NATO membership last week. The outcome is a foregone conclusion, with observers expecting that Helsinki could formally apply for NATO membership as soon as mid-May. The political establishment has exploited the war fever whipped up by the imperialist powers against Russia and public opinion polls ostensibly showing a substantial growth in support for NATO membership to impose a policy they have long sought to adopt. Newspaper reports Monday confirmed that Sweden will submit its application simultaneously with Finland, possibly during the week of May 16, when Finland’s president is scheduled to make a state visit to Stockholm. Finnish membership in NATO will extend the military alliance’s border with Russia by 1,300 kilometres (about 800 miles), more than the current border Russia shares with the imperialist military alliance. A train journey from Helsinki to St. Petersburg, Russia’s second city, takes just three-and-a-half hours. The country will become yet another staging ground for aggressive NATO operations to subjugate Russia to the status of a semi-colony. In their rush to join NATO, the Finnish and Swedish ruling elites are reviving their historic role as servants of the most rapacious imperialist powers. Every article dealing with Helsinki and Stockholm’s imminent NATO membership repeats uncritically the fact that both countries remained “neutral” after 1945, as if they have only now been awoken from their naive peaceful slumbers by the “Russian aggressor” Putin. But an examination of Finland and Sweden’s history refutes such claims. Both countries’ ruling elites were among the bitterest opponents of the 1917 Russian Revolution and collaborated first with Nazi Germany and then the US Cold War against the Soviet Union. Finland never existed in modern times as an independent state until the Bolshevik government under Lenin’s leadership extended it the right of self-determination following the successful conquest of power by the Russian working class in October 1917. Less than three months later, the Finnish bourgeoisie used its “independence,” based on a dependent and subservient relationship to German imperialist militarism, to wage a brutal civil war against its own working class to prevent a socialist revolution.
Wimbledon bans Russian and Belarusian players in foul anti-Russia campaign - Britain’s prestigious Wimbledon tennis tournament has banned Russian and Belarusian players from competing in this year’s event, which takes place in London from June 27 to July 10. The decision by the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club (AELTC) accompanied a ban from all UK tennis events announced by Britain’s Lawn Tennis Association (LTA). The announcements deepen the Russophobic crusade in all professional sports being driven by the NATO powers. The International Olympic Committee has called on sports bodies to exclude Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials from international events. UK Conservative government Home Secretary Priti Patel, while finalising her plans to send desperate asylum seekers to Rwanda, found time to cancel visas issued to the Belarusian men’s basketball team ahead of a scheduled World Cup qualifier match with Britain. The AELTC said in imposing the ban, “Given the profile of The Championships in the United Kingdom and around the world, it is our responsibility to play our part in the widespread efforts of Government, industry, sporting and creative institutions to limit Russia’s global influence through the strongest means possible.” The Wimbledon ban placed the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) and Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) in an embarrassed position, outflanked by their own filthy anti-Russia campaign. On March 1, together with the International Tennis Federation (ITF), the ATP and WTA banned Russian and Belarusian teams from their competitions “until further notice”, while decreeing that Russian and Belarusian individuals would be allowed to play—without displaying their national flag or having their national anthem played.
The Ukraine conflict has triggered the biggest commodities price shock in nearly 50 years and the impact on food and energy is set to last until 2024, the World Bank says - --Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered the largest shock to commodity markets in nearly 50 years, with high price levels expected to persist until at least the end of 2024, the World Bank said.Prices for foodstuffs and fertilizers have risen the most since the commodity price boom of 2008, while increases in energy prices over the last two years are the largest since the 1973 oil crisis, the bank said in a report released on Tuesday."Overall, this amounts to the largest commodity shock we've experienced since the 1970s. As was the case then, the shock is being aggravated by a surge in restrictions in trade of food, fuel and fertilizers," said Indermit Gill, the World Bank's vice president for equitable growth, finance, and institutions.Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted exports from two key players in the global commodities markets. The World Bank warned on April 19 that continued disruptions as a result of the conflictwould pose "major threats" to "global food and nutrition security," after food prices had already surged by more than a third over the past year.Wheat prices in particular are forecast to jump by more than 40% this year, the bank predicted in its report. Russia is the world's largest exporter of the grain, while Ukraine had been expected to export up to 20 million tons of wheat during the current season, equivalent to about 10% of global wheat exports, the bank said. The bank said that the rise in prices for some commodities is also driving up prices of other commodities. High natural gas prices have contributed to soaring costs of fertilizer – production of which relies on natural gas – which have in turn raised the cost of agricultural production. Energy prices are likely to rise more than 50% in 2022 before easing in 2023 and 2024, while agriculture prices are forecast to increase by almost 20% this year before tapering off according to the report."Nevertheless, commodity prices are expected to remain well above the most recent five-year average. In the event of a prolonged war, or additional sanctions on Russia, prices could be even higher and more volatile than currently projected," the report said.
China-exposed commodities take a COVID-control tumble: Russell (Reuters) - Commodities with the biggest exposure to China are starting to price in a worsening COVID-19 situation as fears of more lockdowns worsen an already soft demand outlook. Iron ore futures in China plunged almost 11% on Monday. London-traded copper and aluminium slipped to the lowest level since early February. The Beijing city government ordered mass testing for COVID-19, raising fears among residents that a lockdown was imminent. Several major cities, including financial centre Shanghai, remain under various restrictions as China maintains its tough COVID-control policy. Up until this week industrial commodities were still trading with the view that Beijing would be able to contain COVID-19 outbreaks, and, furthermore, would aggressively stimulate its economy in coming months to boost growth close to the annual target of 5.5%. But the ongoing lockdowns, with Shanghai now entering its fourth week, have eroded confidence in China’s COVID-19 policy, while also hitting physical demand for industrial metals as factories are forced to close or work under restrictions. Iron ore is the commodity with one of the largest exposures to China, which buys about two-thirds of all seaborne volumes. Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange slid 10.7% on Monday to 795 yuan ($121.36) a tonne, the lowest close since March 23. Spot iron ore for delivery to north China dropped to $135.90 a tonne on Monday, down 9.4% from the previous close and 15.2% below the peak so far in 2022 of $160.30 a tonne, reached on March 8. While iron ore remains well above its long-run average of closer to $100 a tonne, the plunge in prices in recent weeks underscores how confidence in China’s economy is evaporating. Copper is another metal that is starting to feel the weight of China’s lockdowns, with Shanghai futures dropping 0.9% on Monday to end at 74,240 yuan a tonne. The decline extended in early trade on Tuesday, with the contract slipping to around 74,240 yuan. Benchmark London copper fell to the lowest in almost three months on Monday, ending at $9,769 a tonne, down 3.4% from the previous close. With declines in aluminium and nickel as well, the overall picture that emerges is that China’s weakened demand outlook is outweighing supply concerns, which were elevated after Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine on Feb. 24. It’s still likely that significant volumes of Russian commodity exports will be either formally sanctioned, or buyers, especially those in Europe and other Western nations, will self-sanction. But the impact of the loss of Russian commodities is still to be quantified, while the weakening of demand in China seems more real, with commodity imports down across the board in March, and vessel-tracking data indicating another soft month in April.
Tesco to ration cooking oil purchases as war in Ukraine hikes food prices - Tesco has become the latest supermarket to ration cooking oil as the Russia-Ukraine war chokes off the flow of sunflower oil to the UK food industry, further raising the cost of popular items such as crisps and chips. Most of the UK’s sunflower oil comes from Ukraine and the war has had a devastating impact on availability as exports ground to a halt. With firms left scrabbling to source other vegetable oils, the price of cooking oil in the shops is about a 20% higher than a year ago. Tesco has introduced a buying limit of three bottles per customer across its entire cooking oil range. The UK’s biggest retailer says it has good availability of cooking oil but on its website a small number of vegetable oils are out of stock. Tesco is following in the footsteps of Morrisons and Waitrose which have already limited purchases to two a person. Waitrose said it was “closely monitoring the situation and working with our suppliers to ensure customers continue to have a choice of cooking oils”. Sainsbury’s and Asda have yet to take any action. As well as being a cupboard staple at home, sunflower oil can also be found in hundreds of products, from ready meals to crisps, and biscuits to mayonnaise. Tom Lock, founder of The British Snack Company, which makes hand-cooked crisps for sale in pubs, said that after potatoes, its other key ingredient was sunflower oil. “Sunflower oil is the industry standard for snacks,” said Lock who explained the company had been forced to switch to rapeseed oil. “It is impossible to get sunflower oil in any quantity. You just can’t get it. We’ve secured enough rapeseed to get us through to August, but we are paying three times as much for it as we were for sunflower oil a year ago.” Lock said it was inevitable that price increases would be passed on to the customer. “We’ve already done one price increase to our customers this year,” he said.
Cooking-Oil Chaos Exacerbates a Looming World Hunger Crisis -- The world's supply of cooking oil -- already squeezed by war -- is getting smaller. Two months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended global agricultural trade, Indonesia is set to ban exports of cooking oil in the wake of a local shortage and soaring prices, adding to a raft ofcrop protectionism around the world. The country accounts for more than a third of global vegetable-oil exports, with China and India, the two most populous countries, among its top buyers.
Israel adds Chinese RMB to Central Bank reserves for first time, cuts USD holdings - The Bank of Israel has added four new currencies, including the Chinese yuan, or renminbi, to its holdings for the first time in the country’s history,Bloomberg reported last week. The central bank will also trim US dollar and euro holdings in a bid to diversify its foreign reserves, the report said.Israel’s foreign-currency reserves, which last year exceeded $200 billion for the first time, have traditionally been made up of dollars, euros and British pounds. Israel will now include Canadian dollars and Australian dollars in its foreign-currency reserves, as well as the Japanese yen and the Chinese renminbi.The reshuffle was a change in Israel’s “whole investment guidelines and philosophy,” Bank of Israel Deputy Governor Andrew Abir said, adding that the rise in Israel’s foreign-exchange reserves forced the central bank to consider “the need to earn a return on the reserves that will cover the costs of liability.”The central bank, which as recently as 2020 held 67.4% of its foreign exchange in US dollars, 30.1% in euros and 2.5% in British pounds, now plans to have the pound and yen account for 5% each. The yuan will account for 2% of its holdings, while the currencies of Canada and Australia will each be 3.5%.A reduction in US dollar and euro holdings is planned to make room for the new reserves being held. US dollar holdings will go from 66.5% in 2021 to 61%, down about 8.3%, while euro holdings will be reduced from 30.8% to 20%, down 35%.
Chinese naval base in the Solomon Islands a ‘red line’, says Australian PM --Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said a Chinese military base in the Solomon Islands would be a “red line” for his government, while fellow US-ally Japan became the latest to dispatch an envoy to the country over the issue. Morrison is attempting to deflect criticism he did not move quickly enough to avoid a security agreement between Honiara and Beijing. Speaking at a press conference on Sunday in Darwin, Morrison said his determination to avoid a naval base in the Solomon Islands was shared not just by the US, but by the Pacific nation’s prime minister, Manasseh Sogavare. Morrison said Sogavare had assured him personally there would be no military base in the Solomons. “This is a shared concern, not just Australia. This is Australia with regional governments,” he said. On Friday, a delegation led by President Joe Biden’s East Asia tsar Kurt Campbell visited the country to have a “substantial discussion” with Sogavare about the pact. The prime minister on Monday said in doing so, Washington had “revitalised relations” with the Solomon Islands and he welcomed, once again, a US decision to re-establish its embassy. “Contrary to misinformation promoted by antigovernment critics, the Solomon Islands-China Security Co-operation is not about China establishing a military base in Solomon Islands, but is about supporting the state to address its internal hard and soft security threats,” Sogavare said in a statement. When asked by journalists what he would do in the event of the announcement of a Chinese military base in the Solomons, Morrison didn’t say. Australia’s Liberal-National coalition is working to contain the political fallout from the announcement in the past week that the Solomon Islands had signed a security agreement with China, the details of which have not been made public. A draft of the agreement leaked in late March 2022 would allow Chinese naval vessels a safe harbour just 2,000km from Australia’s coastline. The US and its allies have long been concerned about the possibility of China obtaining a military foothold in the Pacific, and the agreement is a major diplomatic victory for the Chinese government. Japan on Monday dispatched parliamentary vice minister Kentaro Uesugi for talks with officials in the Solomons.
Female suicide bomber kills three Chinese teachers and Pakistani at Karachi university (Reuters) -A suspected female suicide bomber killed three Chinese teachers in Karachi on Tuesday, police and officials said, drawing strong condemnation from Beijing, in the first major attack this year against nationals of long-time ally China working in Pakistan. The three were among passengers on a minibus returning to Karachi university after a lunch break when the bomb exploded at the entrance to the university's Confucius Institute, killing the Chinese teachers and a Pakistani national, police and officials said.A separatist group, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) based in southwestern Balochistan province bordering Afghanistan and Iran, claimed responsibility for the blast, adding in an email to Reuters the attack was carried out by a woman suicide bomber.It shared in the email a photo of her clad in a long shawl sitting with two children. The photo could not be verified independently by police or other officials.
Karachi suicide bomber revealed as highly educated mother of two (suicide bombing video) The woman who carried out the Karachi suicide bombing — that killed four people, including three Chinese nationals — was a highly educated mother of two.The suicide bomber, 30-year-old Shari Baloch from Niazar Abad in Balochistan’s Turbat, had completed MSc in zoology and was married to a doctor.She was pursuing M Phil and was a practicing science teacher according to a statement released by the Afghanistan-based militant organisation, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which claimed responsibility for the attack. Shari Baloch joined the special self-sacrifice squad of the BLA’s Majeed Brigade two years ago. The BLA said that she had been offered the option to opt-out of the squad because of her two young children, but she refused.
Karachi bombing: Why there is huge Baloch pushback against China-Pak corridor - The Karachi suicide bombing is part of a Baloch pushback against the China-Pakistan corridor but also spotlights the larger struggle for Balochistan's freedom. A burqa-clad Baloch woman suicide bomber killed four people, including three Chinese nationals(tutors), in an attack on a minibus carrying staff from China-built Confucius Institute at Karachi University on Tuesday. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed responsibility for the attack, the first major one this year against nationals of all-weather ally China working in Pakistan. BLA, banned in Pakistan for "terror activities", said it was their first suicide attack by a woman assailant.While the Karachi suicide bombing is part of an intensifying Baloch pushback against the $54 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), it also spotlights the larger and deeper struggle for Balochistan’s freedom. Let’s first understand Balochistan. Rich in natural resources, it’s Pakistan’s largest but also poorest province, with Quetta as its capital. On March 27, 1948 (observed as Black Day by Baloch people), a newborn Pakistan annexed the Baloch state, marking the beginning of a long-running insurgency. Over the years, thousands of people have gone missing in Balochistan, coinciding with a military-led brutal crackdown, often drawing international condemnation. Hundreds of bodies of political activists and suspected armed separatists have been found in the restive province, global media has reported, pointing to extrajudicial killings by Pakistani security agencies. The insurgency is fuelled by the exploitation of resources and oppression of people, but Pakistan, in denial, blames it on India and Iran, a charge both nations have vehemently rejected.
Seventy-Three Million People Lose Partial Access to Mobile Phone Networks in Nigeria For Not Having Digital ID -- As the World Bank drives the implementation of digital ID programs across the Global South, including in Nigeria, its fellow Bretton Woods institution, the IMF, is doing much the same for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Nigeria’s government, determined to speed up public adoption of its mandatory digital ID, just gave one example of how this could happen. To encourage (to put it kindly) citizens to get with its ID program, it has barred anyone who isn’t registered in the national digital identity database from being able to make outgoing calls from their mobile phones. The move has affected some 73 million people, according to a Thomson Reuters article. That is roughly a third of the West African nation’s just over 200 million inhabitants. Considering just under half of Nigeria’s population is under the age of 15, many of whom presumably do not own a smartphone, it means the vast majority of Nigerians are currently unable to use their mobile phones to make outgoing calls. Given how important mobile networks are in Sub-Saharan Africa, serving as the only form of internet access for many, the impact will have been huge. Here’s more from the Reuters piece: Nigeria is among dozens of African countries including Ghana, Egypt and Kenya with SIM registration laws that authorities say are necessary for security purposes, but digital rights experts say increase surveillance and hurts privacy. Nigeria has been rolling out 11-digit electronic national identity cards for almost a decade, which record an individual’s personal and biometric data, including fingerprints and photo. The National Identity Number (NIN) is required to open a bank account, apply for a driver’s license, vote, get health insurance, and file tax returns. The government says digital identity is needed to bolster security and identify criminals as it battles insurgents and armed bandits who have kidnapped hundreds of people for ransom. A similar argument was used by the government of Mexico to justify the proposed creation of aNational Register of Mobile Telephone Users, a centralized database containing the line number, date and time of activation for each user, their full name and biometric data, among other information.Besides serving as a national ID card, Nigeria’s digital ID number (NIN) has multiple other functions, says French military contractor Thales Group, one of the companies contracted to help implement Nigeria’s digital ID system. It will also serve as a travel document, an electronic ID, a biometric e-ID (containing the holder’s 10 fingerprints and photograph captured during the registration process) and a payment card. In the second phase of its implementation, complementary applications such as an e-drivers’ license and other e-services, including eVoting, eHealth, and eTransport, will be included.
COVID-19 spread among Australian political establishment exposes pandemic lies - With Australian Labor Party leader Anthony Albanese still conducting his campaign for the May 21 federal election from isolation, further information has come to light about the spread of COVID-19 within the political and media establishment. According to the Australian, at least seven journalists in the Labor media contingent contracted the virus in the first two weeks of the campaign. Yet the incursion of the deadly pandemic into the corporate media’s own ranks has done nothing to reverse their relentless promotion of a “return to normal.” Senior members of the opposition leader’s shadow cabinet have also been hit by the pandemic in recent weeks. Albanese told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation last Friday that Tony Burke, Kristina Keneally and Jason Clare had all been infected with COVID-19 since the federal budget announcement, less than a month ago. The string of infections exposes the lies pushed by both major parties that the pandemic is over. This unscientific and criminal fabrication is being used to justify the ending of all COVID-19 mitigation measures in line with the profit demands of big business. Meanwhile, more than 40,000 new cases are being detected each day around the country despite declining test rates. The outbreak also reveals the extraordinary lengths to which the political establishment will go—even if it means putting themselves and their families at risk—to promote the subordination of the health and lives of working people to corporate profit interests. COVID-19 has killed an average of more than 40 per day in 2022, making it the second or third most common cause of death in Australia, based on pre-pandemic figures. Fifty deaths were reported yesterday, yet the pandemic is virtually absent from the nation’s news headlines, except to denounce China’s continued efforts to quash the virus.
Euro sinks to five-year low on energy supply, slowdown fears - The euro tumbled against the U.S. dollar Wednesday as investors grew increasingly concerned with energy supply and a potential recession in the region. The euro dipped below $1.06 for the first time since 2017. It slid 0.8% lower to $1.056. The dollar has surged in recent weeks on its safe-haven appeal, as traders fear a growth slowdown or even a recession. "The euro is clearly heading towards parity. Reasons for this weakness are the weak economic prospects for the eurozone and huge differences in monetary policy reactions in the US and the eurozone," Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, told CNBC via email. The market moves come as Russian state energy firm Gazprom decided to halt natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria — two members of the European Union — with Moscow demanding payment in rubles. Tensions continue to rise between Moscow and the West following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. "The weakness has been exacerbated by Russia's decision to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, meaning we are now one step closer to the same happening for euro area countries," George Buckley, chief U.K. and euro area economist at Nomura, told CNBC. On Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused Russia of blackmail for its decision to cut supplies. The EU is highly dependent on Russian gas, with about 40% of its imports coming from the country, and there are wider concerns about a deeper economic slowdown in the region. "Higher energy prices alongside a materially weaker currency will add to near-term inflation, though this intensifies the risk of a cost-of-living-related slowdown looking ahead," Buckley added. "It is a worrying sign," James von Moltke, chief financial officer of Deutsche Bank, told CNBC Wednesday about Gazprom's decision. "I don't think it has an immediate impact on the economy … but it remains a risk for the overall outlook," he added. The International Monetary Fund projected earlier this month that the euro area will grow 2.8% this year. This is more than 1 percentage point lower than a previous forecast made before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Spanish inflation hits 37-year high of 9.8% - Spanish inflation accelerated in March to a 37-year high of 9.8 percent due to soaring energy prices, as per the latest data released on Wednesday.
German inflation hits 40-year high in April - Data published on Thursday showed that consumer prices in Germany in April had risen 7.4 percent year-on-year, the fastest increase in over 40 years. The new data, published by the federal statistics agency Destatis on Thursday, marked an uptick from March's figure of 7.3 percent.
Eurozone annual inflation hits a record high for the sixth consecutive month - Eurozone inflation in April 2022 is expected to be 7.5%, hitting a record high for the sixth consecutive month. This month’s 7.5% is up from 7.4% in March, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.1 The euro area annual inflation rate was 5.9% in February 2022, 5.1% in January, 5.0% in December 2021, 4.9% in November, 4.1% in October, 3.4% in September, 3.0% in August, 2.2 in July, and 1.9% in June. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in April (38.0%, compared with 44.4% in March), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (6.4%, compared with 5.0% in March), non-energy industrial goods (3.8%, compared with 3.4% in March) and services (3.3%, compared with 2.7% in March). In March, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+4.36 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+1.12 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+1.07 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.90 pp). Governments, as well as households, are already feeling the effects of high inflation, AP reports. As one of the results, Germany is dropping a charge for supporting renewable energy on electric bills, saving a family of four around 300 euros a year.2
Crypto firms poach U.K. cops into top jobs with triple pay -- Cryptocurrency firms, armed with cash and in need of regulatory experience, are poaching U.K. cybercrime cops with offers of double or triple pay.The National Police Chiefs’ Council, the representative body for all U.K. forces, says they are losing experienced cybercrime officers and staff at three to four times the rate of the rest of policing. The NPCC estimates that around 15 individuals from a policing or law enforcement background now work for prominent crypto firms — and they expect this to increase significantly over the next year to 18 months.
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