Fed's Bullard wants to get rates up to 3.5% by year end (Reuters) - U.S. inflation is "far too high," St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Monday as he repeated his case for increasing interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the year to slow what are now 40-year-high inflation readings. "What we need to do right now is get expeditiously to neutral and then go from there," Bullard said at a virtual event held by the Council on Foreign Relations. But with economic growth expected to remain above its potential, he added, the economy won't fall into recession and the unemployment rate, now at 3.6%, will likely drop below 3% this year. The Fed raised its target policy rate a quarter-of-a-percentage point last month, and Fed forecasts released at the time showed policymakers expected rates to rise to 1.9% by year-end. Bullard's preferred rate path would require half-point interest rates hikes at all six of the Fed's remaining meetings this year. The likely rate path is probably somewhere in between, based on interest-rate futures contracts, which are currently pricing in a year-end policy rate range at 2.5%-2.75%. Bullard said he also wants to begin reducing the Fed's balance sheet at an upcoming meeting, though he said he did not see a need to start selling bonds unless inflation does not recede as the Fed expects.
Fed’s Evans Sees Rates Rising Above Neutral Level - -- The U.S. central bank will probably raise interest rates above levels it considers neutral for the economy next year given the outlook for inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said. “Probably we are going beyond neutral,” Evans said Tuesday during a moderated discussion at an Economic Club of New York event. “That’s my expectation, when I see that, taking out special factors, I’m still left with 3 to 3.5% inflation” by the end of 2022, he said. “That’s not what we want. If we’re at a 2.5% inflation rate, I think we have more things to ponder there.” The Chicago Fed chief’s comments highlight how closely U.S. central bankers are keeping an eye on inflation data as they chart a course for interest rates after consumer prices rose 8.5% in the 12 months through March, which marked the fastest inflation rate in any one-year period since 1981. Fed officials raised their benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage point last month after keeping it pinned near zero for the previous two years to help the U.S. economy recover from the impact of the pandemic. Now, they are signaling a relatively-rapid pace of rate increases over the rest of the year to get their benchmark rate to what they deem to be a “neutral” level of 2.25-2.5%, and are increasingly suggesting they may have to go even higher. “By December, we’re going to get more data on the micro aspects of the high inflation, price increases, how much is it broadening out,” Evans said. “By that time, we’re at neutral, and to the extent we don’t see it coming down, we’re going beyond neutral, absolutely.” Investors are betting Fed officials will choose to up-size rate increases at coming policy meetings, including at their next gathering May 3-4, opting for half-point moves instead of the more-typical quarter-point adjustments. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, speaking Monday, said the central bank shouldn’t rule out even larger hikes, invoking the 75 basis point move that former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan delivered in 1994. Evans, speaking with reporters Tuesday following the event, said half-point moves “could make sense” but added that he doesn’t “see the need for anything more than that, in terms of individual moves.”
Last-resort Fed hike enters debate as Bullard invokes 1994 move The Federal Reserve’s most hawkish official cracked open the door to discussing the first 75-basis-point interest rate hike since 1994, a move economists say would be a last resort in case inflation further spirals out of control. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Monday gave high praise for former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s decision to raise rates by three quarters of a percentage point that year, saying it “set up the U.S. economy for a stellar second half of the 1990s, one of the best periods in U.S. macroeconomic history.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President and CEO James Bullard Speaks At Japan Center for International Finance Seminar James Bullard.Akio Kon/Bloomberg “I wouldn’t rule it out, but it is not my base case here,” he said in a virtual presentation to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Fed's Powell: "50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting" - Fed Chair Powell delivered prepared remarks on The Global Economy At the International Monetary Fund Debate on the Global Economy today. Nick Timarios at the WSJ as some details: Fed’s Jerome Powell Seals Expectations of Half-Point Rate Rise in May“It is appropriate in my view to be moving a little more quickly” to raise interest rates than the Fed has in the recent past, Mr. Powell said Thursday. “I also think there’s something in the idea of front-end-loading” the removal of stimulus, he said...."It's too hot. It's unsustainably hot. It's our job to get it to a better place where supply and demand are closer together."And from Jeff Cox at CNBC: Powell says taming inflation ‘absolutely essential,’ and a 50 basis point hike possible for May"I would say 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.”...“Our goal is to use our tools to get demand and supply back in synch, so that inflation moves down and does so without a slowdown that amounts to a recession,” Powell said. “I don’t think you’ll hear anyone at the Fed say that that’s going to be straightforward or easy. It’s going to be very challenging. We’re going to do our best to accomplish that.”“It’s absolutely essential to restore price stability,” he added. “Economies don’t work without price stability.”
Peak Balance Sheet: Fed’s Assets Dip to Level of 5 Weeks Ago. End of QE, End of an Era by Wolf Richter - Total assets on the Fed’s weekly balance sheet as of April 20, released this afternoon, declined to $8.955 trillion, roughly the same as on March 16 and below the levels of March 23 and April 13. Beyond the week-to-week ups and downs, caused by the peculiarities of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which we’ll get to in a moment, the balance sheet has flattened out. Balance sheet growth has ended. QE has ended. That part of the marvelous show is over. Since March 2020, when this whole money-printing orgy began, the Fed has increased its assets by $4.65 trillion, a mind-boggling amount of QE in the span of just two years. QE was designed to repress long-term Treasury yields, mortgage rates, long-term interest rates of any kind, and to inflate asset prices. It thereby created the biggest wealth disparity ever, documented by my Wealth Disparity Monitor, based on the Fed’s own data. But then raging inflation got in the way. And the Fed finally started “tapering” its asset purchases in mid-November. Tapering means that the Fed bought less of Treasury securities and MBS than it did before tapering, when it was increasing its assets by about $120 billion a month. After the tapering began this monthly increase began to shrink. Now the balance sheet is no longer increasing, tapering is finished, and QE has ended. Now markets started to kiss that easy money goodbye. The bond market has been getting hammered since last year. The stock market has been getting hammered since January this year, and numerous stocks have imploded. The Fed has also unwound and brought to zero numerous of its emergency measures that it had started in the spring of 2020, including its repos, which it ended in mid-2020, and its corporate bonds and bond ETFs, of which it never bought much to begin with. We’ll get to them in a moment. Since the beginning of March 2020, the Fed’s holdings of Treasury securities have ballooned by $3.24 trillion, to a total of $5.76 trillion. The balance has now remained roughly flat for several weeks. In order to maintain the balance of Treasury securities at the current level, as maturing securities come off the balance sheet, the Fed buys new Treasury securities in the amounts needed to replace the maturing securities.
The Fed is still behind the curve -Media reports suggest that the Federal Reserve has finally decided to tighten monetary policy in order to address high inflation. Indeed, Fed officials insist that policy has been tightening since late last year, as a result of forward guidance pointing to future interest rate increases. In fact, the Fed has not even begun to tighten monetary policy.It is true that the Fed raised its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last month. It is also true that longer-term rates that are not directly set by the Fed have risen sharply since December, in anticipation of further Fed rate increases. Unfortunately, interest rates are not a reliable indicator of the stance of monetary policy. While rates have been rising, the so-called “equilibrium rate of interest” – which reflects factors such as rising inflation and real economic growth – is rising even more rapidly. The Fed is falling further and further behind the curve.To better understand the concept of being behind the curve, consider an analogy of a driver steering a bus on a road that bends sharply to the right. If the driver dozes off for a moment, he or she might not turn the wheel until the bus is already entering the curve. Even if the steering wheel is eventually turned to the right, if the adjustment occurs too slowly, the bus might end up in a ditch on the left side of the road.Monetary policy works in a similar fashion. During periods of rising inflation, the equilibrium interest rate rises as people eagerly borrow money for business investment projects and new homes to take advantage of rising asset prices. If the Fed raises its target rate too slowly, and thus short-term interest rates fall below the (rising) equilibrium interest rate, then monetary policy becomes effectively more expansionary despite modestly higher interest rates. In that case, the slow-reacting Fed is said to be behind the curve.In order to judge the stance of monetary policy, it is not enough to look at where the Fed sets its interest rate target. We also need to consider the broader goals of monetary policy, particularly inflation expectations. Bond market forecasts of inflation over the next five years have risen significantly since December 2021, indicating that policy is indeed getting more expansionary.In fairness, some of that increase reflects the anticipated effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly rising energy prices. The Fed generally tries to look past short-run changes in inflation due to supply shocks and focus on longer-run inflation expectations. But even the so-called “5-year, 5-year forward” inflation forecast has been rising. The Ukraine war is not likely to have affected inflation rates between the years 2027 and 2032. This is not the first time the Fed has made this mistake. During the inflationary late 1960s, interest rates gradually increased. Fed officials were lulled into assuming that monetary policy had been tightened. But inflation expectations were rising even faster than the nominal interest rate. As a result, the real interest rate was actually declining. A declining real cost of credit gives the public more incentive to borrow money to finance spending on new businesses, new homes and new cars, pushing inflation higher.
Treasury Bond Massacre, Mortgage Rates Hit 5.35%, Highest since 2009, and it’s Only April - by Wolf Richter - The interesting thing is that no one at the Fed is trying to talk down those spikes in Treasury yields and mortgage rates. It shows that those yields are going where the Fed wants them to go, and that the Treasury market is coming around to the Fed’s rate-hike plan, and that those yields have a long ways to go, given that CPI inflation is 8.5%, a gigantic mess that has unfolded over the past 15 months, finally, after 12 years of money-printing. The two-year Treasury yield spiked by 15 basis points today to 2.61%, the highest since January 2019. This has been a huge move in just seven months. When the two-year yield goes over 2.83%, it will be in territory not seen since 2007, as the Treasury market begins to price in the Fed’s coming policy action to crack down on inflation: Even the biggest doves at the Fed are now fully on board the rate-hike train, and it’s only a question of how fast and how long. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, one of the biggest doves, is “comfortable” with 25-basis-point hikes at every meeting this year (there are seven more), and even he is “open” to 50-basis-point hikes: “we want to be humble and nimble, and get to neutral before too long – maybe 50 helps, I’m open to that,” he said. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 2.93% at the close today, the highest since December 2018. The magic number there is 3.24%, beyond which yields are back in 2011 territory: When yields rise, it means prices of those bonds fall, and prices fall the hardest of bonds with the longest remaining maturities. And it’s a massacre for people who invested in what they thought was a very conservative and prudent instrument, namely a bond fund tracking long-term Treasury securities, when in fact it turned out to be a highly risky wager on long-term Treasury yields always going lower forevermore. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF [TLT], which tracks an index of Treasury securities with at least 20 years of remaining maturities, dropped another 0.75% today, is down 19.5% year-to-date, and has plunged by 30.6% from the peak in August 2020, which was when long-term Treasury yields had hit historic lows, and which was – with hindsight – the moment the greatest bond-market bubble in US history began to implode:
Yellen: Inflation May have Peaked ---According to Reuters, quoting Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: She said inflation may have peaked in the United States, but cautioned that prices may remain elevated "for a while longer."There are many drivers of inflation right now - supply chain issues, high energy and food prices, housing (Owners' Equivalent Rent will keep inflation high for some time) - to name a few. But it is possible, due to base effects, that inflation "may have peaked". This graph shows the month-to-month increase in PCE and core PCE prices since January 2020. Prices really picked up in March 2021, so when the PCE prices are released for March 2022 next week, the year-over-year change might be unchanged or even decrease as March 2021 is dropped from the calculation.But, as Yellen notes, prices increase will likely remain elevated "for a while longer".
Fed turns to private sector to beef up tech staff -Jerome Powell wants to put the Federal Reserve at “the forefront of technological changes” in the financial sector. The central bank is sharpening its tech acumen to get there. Calling it imperative to “evolve with the rest of the financial system," the Fed chair said during an event hosted by the Bank for International Settlements last month that the entire Fed system is pouring resources into payments and digital currency research and development. That effort includes snagging talent from the private sector, per a watchdog report released in February.
Fed's Beige Book: "Strong demand for residential real estate but limited supply" --Fed's Beige Book Economic activity expanded at a moderate pace since mid-February. Several Districts reported moderate employment gains despite hiring and retention challenges in the labor market. Consumer spending accelerated among retail and non-financial service firms, as COVID-19 cases tapered across the country. Manufacturing activity was solid overall across most Districts, but supply chain backlogs, labor market tightness, and elevated input costs continued to pose challenges on firms' abilities to meet demand. Vehicle sales remained largely constrained by low inventories. Commercial real estate activity accelerated modestly as office occupancy and retail activity increased. Districts' contacts reported continued strong demand for residential real estate but limited supply. Agricultural conditions were mixed across regions. Farmers were supported by surging crop prices, but drought conditions were a challenge in some Districts and increasing input costs were squeezing producer margins across the nation. Outlooks for future growth were clouded by the uncertainty created by recent geopolitical developments and rising prices....Employment increased at a moderate pace. Demand for workers continued to be strong across most Districts and industry sectors. But hiring was held back by the overall lack of available workers, though several Districts reported signs of modest improvement in worker availability. Many firms reported significant turnover as workers left for higher wages and more flexible job schedules. Persistent labor demand continued to fuel strong wage growth, particularly for footloose workers willing to change jobs. Firms reported that inflationary pressures were also contributing to higher wages, and that higher wages were doing little to alleviate widespread job vacancies. But some contacts reported early signs that the strong pace of wage growth had begun to slow.On Residential Real Estate:
• Boston: "Residential real estate sales slowed moderately in February, as the market was dogged by historically low inventories."
• Chicago: "Multifamily construction strengthened as demand remained robust. Residential real estate activity was little changed."
• St Louis: "The residential real estate market has remained strong since our previous report."
• Minneapolis: "Residential construction was flat and residential real estate slowed."
• San Francisco: "Residential real estate demand remained strong despite historically high prices and rising mortgage rates. Nonetheless, some contacts mentioned that they expect a slowdown in demand due to increasing mortgage rates. "
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. Note: Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of April 16th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA since 2019 (Blue). The 7-day average is down 9.5% from the same day in 2019 (90.5% of 2019). (Red line) Air travel has been moving sideways over the last month, off about 10% from 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through April 14th. Movie ticket sales were at $154 million last week, down about 15% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through April 9th. The occupancy rate was down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is just above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 39% of normal. This data is through Friday, April 15th.
Yellen to call for increased economic pressure on Russia: official - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week will call on her opposite numbers to ramp up the monetary pain on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, a senior Treasury legit stated Monday. Yellen will participate within the spring conferences of the IMF and World Bank, as well as gatherings of finance officers from the G7 and G20 countries, wherein the fallout from the battle might be a key topic of discussion. “The secretary believes the Russian invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated the need for the world’s biggest economies to stand together to defend international order and protect peace and prosperity,” the official told media.“She will use this week’s meetings to work with allies to continue our united efforts to increase economic pressure on Russia while mitigating spillover effects.” The IMF and World Bank warned of the devastating prices the war is applying on the global economy, especially through rising costs for energy and food at a time of high inflation.
U.S. Treasury sanctions Russian bitcoin miners, as war enters its third month - or the first time ever, the U.S. Department of the Treasury is taking aim atbitcoin miners operating in Russia as the country's war on Ukraine approaches its third month.In its latest round of sanctions, the U.S. Treasury Department says that it is taking action against companies in Russia's virtual currency mining industry.According to data from Cambridge University, Russia is the world's third-biggest destination for bitcoin mining."By operating vast server farms that sell virtual currency mining capacity internationally, these companies help Russia monetize its natural resources," Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson said in a news release released early Wednesday afternoon."Russia has a comparative advantage in crypto mining due to energy resources and a cold climate. However, mining companies rely on imported computer equipment and fiat payments, which makes them vulnerable to sanctions," continued the statement.The United States views income from the crypto mining industry as a potential threat to the efficacy of its sanctions regime, with the Treasury saying that it is committed to ensuring that no asset becomes a mechanism for the Putin regime to offset the impact of sanctions.Among the companies targeted by U.S. sanctions is BitRiver, which was founded in 2017, and as the name implies, operates its mining farms with hydroelectric power. The mining firm employs over 200 full-time staff in three offices across Russia, according to its website.The Office of Foreign Assets Control has singled out 10 Russia-based subsidiaries of BitRiver in its most recent raft of sanctions on businesses and individuals helping Russia soften the blow of economic penalties."These US actions should obviously be viewed as interference in the crypto mining industry, unfair competition and an attempt to change the global balance of power in favor of American companies," said BitRiver founder and CEO Igor Runets, adding that the company "has never provided services to Russian government institutions and has not worked with customers already targeted by Washington's sanctions."The worry is that similar to how Iran reportedly uses bitcoin mining to evade sanctions, Russia could also channel its vast energy resources toward crypto mining operations as a way to circumvent the West's economic blockade.The International Monetary Fund warns in a new report that bitcoin could allow countries such as Russia to monetize energy resources, "some of which cannot be exported due to sanctions."
Biden admin to announce self-imposed ban on anti-satellite weapons tests - The Biden administration has decided to implement a self-imposed ban on the testing of anti-satellite weapons, in part to highlight a Russian test in November that created a dangerous field of space debris, two sources familiar with the matter tell NBC News.Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce the move Monday during a visit to Vanderburg Space Force Base in California, the sources said.According to a document obtained by NBC News, administration officials told Congress the move was designed to address “the most pressing threats to the security and sustainability of space, as demonstrated by Russia’s November 2021 destructive direct-ascent ASAT missile test.” On Nov. 15, 2021, an interceptor missile launched in northern Russia struck a Soviet-era COSMOS 1408 satellite, generating a massive debris field in low-Earth orbit of more than 1,500 pieces of trackable debris, U.S. Space Command has said. Such tests undermine the long-term stability of space and imperil space exploration, the administration told Congress. Republicans are skeptical of a unilateral test ban that Russia and China are unlikely to sign on to, a GOP congressional aide said.
Biden considering another military aid package for Ukraine - The Biden administration is expected to announce in the coming days another package of military assistance for Ukraine that will follow an $800 million package announced last week. CNN and NBC News reported that the administration was putting together another $800 million weapons package for Ukraine. A congressional source told The Hill that a weapons package was being considered but that there were no further details. Asked about the report, the State Department said, “We have nothing to announce at this time.” The Pentagon referred questions on the report to the National Security Council. The expected package would come about a week after Biden unveiled an $800 million weapons package for Ukraine, which included howitzers, counter-artillery radars and Mi-17 helicopters originally earmarked for Afghanistan. The U.S. has provided more than $3.2 billion security assistance to Ukraine since President Biden took office, including $2.6 billion since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Biden signaled that more aid was coming during a trip to New Hampshire on Tuesday, answering “yes” when asked if Washington would send Kyiv more artillery.
US, Kiev lying about people in Azovstal: Moscow -- There is evidence that there were people at Azovstal unrelated to the Ukrainian forces, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Friday. "Of course, there is evidence that there are not only people who belong directly to the armed forces," she said on the air of the Rossiya 24 broadcaster, adding that "the path from Azovstal is open to anyone who wants to go through there." Zakharova also dismissed accusations about Russia not allowing people to leave the Azovstal in Mariupol calling them "lies", describing all related statements as such as well. Regarding the situation around Azovtal, the spokesperson noted that "the Kiev regime [repeatedly] stated that the Russian side did not allow civilians to leave Azovstal. Well, this is a lie. This is not true. The Russian side, through the mouth of the Ministry of Defense, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, has repeatedly talked about how people who want to leave the territory of Azovstal can do so." She also went on to underline how Kiev and Washington "pretend that there is no possibility for the civilian population to leave," accusing them of "intimidating people who are inside Azovstal." "They are doing everything so that people who are at Azovstal continue to be there. For them, this is a continuation of the 'human shield' policy," she explained. The Russian Armed Forces had renewed their offer for nationalist Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries remaining at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol to halt their hostilities and lay down their arms on Wednesday. Russian National Defense Center chief Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev cited Moscow's forces' humane principles as the reason behind the offer, underlining to the militants that they would be "guaranteed life" if they take the Russian offer and comply with Russia's conditions.All of Mariupol's urban area has been cleared of Ukrainian troops, with more than 4,000 soldiers eliminated over the past day alone, the Russian Defense Ministry said Saturday. The city has been a playground for Ukrainian provocations since the war broke out in the country on February 24. The Russian Defense Ministry had revealed that Ukrainian nationalists in Mariupol used about 150 civilians as human shields and opened fire against DPR fighters from behind the civilians' backs.
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar: India Has Concerns About U.S. Human Rights Record by Jerri-Lynn Scofield -- Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and U.S. president Joe Biden met virtually last Monday to discuss their bilateral relationship, especially U,S, insistence that India not increase its oil and gas imports from Russia, according to the New York Times, Biden Urges Modi Not to Increase India’s Reliance on Russian Oil and Gas. Russian oil currently accounts for about one percent of India’s exports. India has abstained from UN votes condemning Russian actions in Ukraine. India has most recently condemned the killings in Bucha and called for a fuller UN investigation, but tellingly, has not attributed those killings to Russia. Per the NYT: On Monday, Mr. Modi again declined to single out Russia by name even as he condemned the apparent human rights abuses in Bucha, which the United States and others have said are evidence of war crimes. “The news about the killings of innocent civilians in the Bucha city was very worrying,” Mr. Modi said in public remarks at the beginning of his meeting with Mr. Biden. He did not attribute the killings to Russia, but said that “we instantly condemned the killings and have called for an independent inquiry.” These talks were accompanied by 2 plus 2 meetings in Washington, between Indian external affairs minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and Indian defense minister Rajnath Singh and their U.S. counterparts, U.S. secretary of state Anthony Blinken and U.S. secretary for defense Lloyd Austin. This was the fourth such meeting. Now, some have suggested –that Modi will respond to U.S. arm twisting by walking back India’s commitment to an independent multi alignment policy and instead capitulate to pursuing the sanctions policy against Russia that the U.S. demands. I think that highly unlikely, for reasons I outlined in a post two weeks ago, India: Pursuing its National Interest in the Multipolar World. First, India has pursued a broadly non-aligned policy more or less from its Independence from the Raj. This new multi-alignment policy is the logical follow-on from that policy, in response to the rise of a multipolar world. Second, Jaishankar published a remarkable book in 2020, The India Way, which serves as a primer for understanding India’s current approach to managing its international affairs….Finally, it’s clearly in India’s self-interest to get the best possible economic deals for its people, especially – as Jaishankar has observed, India’s Russian oil imports are mere drops in the bucket, compared to Russian fossil fuel being taken in by Europe. According to The Hindustan Times,India’s 1-month oil from Russia less than Europe’s in one afternoon: Jaishankar: “If you are looking at energy purchases from Russia, I would suggest that your attention should be focused on Europe”…Jaishankar said, “We do buy some energy which is necessary for our energy security. But I suspect, looking at the figures, probably our total purchases for the month would be less than what Europe does in an afternoon. So you might want to think about that.” Jaishankar similarly pushed back at US criticism of human rights in India, attributing it to American lobbies and vote banks. “People are entitled to have views about us.We also are entitled to have views about their lobbies and vote banks.We will not be reticent. We also have views on other people’s human rights, particularly when it pertains to our community,” Jaishankar retorted in one of the strongest repudiation of the constant American lectures on human rights.
US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar meets with Pakistani leaders - Al Jazeera - United States Representative Ilhan Omar has met with Pakistani leaders in the first visit by a member of Congress since a new coalition government came into power in Islamabad last week after the removal of former premier Imran Khan. According to a government statement, Omar met with President Arif Alvi at his office on Wednesday. Omar, one of only a handful of Muslim members of Congress, also met Khan earlier at his residence in the capital, Islamabad.She is a Somali-born Muslim-American immigrant who represents Minnesota in the US House of Representatives.Alvi said in the statement that Pakistan values its longstanding relationship with the US and hoped the “constructive engagements between the two countries would promote peace and development in the region”.Alvi emphasised the need for further improving bilateral relations between the two countries.The statement quoted Omar as saying that both countries had “huge potential to improve and strengthen relations”. It also said Omar “appreciated the role played by Pakistan” in combating Islamophobia.
US-Saudi relations reach 'breaking point' – WSJ - The Wall Street Journal says the latest meeting between Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and US national security advisor Jake Sullivan did not go too well, with MBS shouting at Sullivan.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in September, which was their first meeting, in shorts at his seaside palace, and the prince shouted at Sullivan when he brought up the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. US officials have reported that the relationship between Washington and Riyadh has hit its lowest point in decades, especially after President Biden said Saudi should be treated as a pariah over various human rights issues, including Khashoggi's murder. Political rifts have deepened between the two countries in light of the war in Ukraine, according to both US and Saudi officials. Washington requested that Saudi pump more oil to mitigate the rising oil prices and undermine Russia's economy, but Riyadh did not comply, conducting business as usual. Bin Salman has been very vocal about wanting to be recognized as Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler and future king by Biden, though the Democrat is yet to meet or speak with the prince, as his administration's policy has been clear since day one: the Saudi King is Biden's counterpart. Biden has also gone as far as telling US citizens to blame surging gas prices on low Saudi oil output, theWSJ reported. Still, MBS has stressed several times that Riyadh agreed with the Biden administration on 90% of issues, revealing that the two sides are cooperating to find common ground on their disagreements. Saudi officials have underlined that it was a risk for the US for Saudi to align more closely with China and Russia, or at least remain neutral on issues pivotal for Washington, following the same doctrine it has been following on Ukraine. At a certain point, the Biden administration stopped asking Saudi to pump more oil, only asking Riyadh not to do anything that wouldhurt the West's efforts in Ukraine, a senior US official told the WSJ. The Saudis have been retaliating against the US, cutting short a high-level military delegation to Washington last summer and calling off a visit by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that had been scheduled for last fall. A planned visit set for last month by State Secretary Antony Blinken was also canceled, with US officials claiming there had been scheduling conflicts. US officials have tried several times to mend relations with Saudi, and White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk has spearheaded several attempts to do so, but with Biden opposing broad concessions to Riyadh, very little progress has been made on the issue.
Biden wants infrastructure projects to be built with American iron and steel - — The Biden administration is urging federal agencies to use American-made materials in new building projects supported by the $1.2 billion infrastructure package. The Office of Management and Budget issued 17 pages of instructions on Monday instructing federal agencies to ensure that any initiatives to build or repair roads, bridges, water pipelines, or even broadband internet be produced using American materials, including iron and steel, by mid-May. The metals criterion states that “all production steps, from the initial melting stage to the application of coatings, happened in the United States.” Agencies must also verify that the majority of components used in building projects are created in the United States. If it’s determined that procuring the products domestically isn’t in the public interest, that quantities of the materials aren’t “sufficient and reasonably available… or of a satisfactory quality,” or that using U.S.-sourced materials would increase the project’s cost by more than 25%, government agencies can request waivers. The new guidelines is part of the administration’s efforts to execute President Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill, which was signed into law in November. It’s also part of Biden’s plan to help the US supply chain deal with the Covid epidemic and inflation. President Donald Trump slapped heavy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from European countries during his previous administration, raising costs in the United States. Biden revealed at the G-20 conference in October 2021 that the US has secured an agreement to repeal the tariffs.
U.S. will no longer enforce mask mandate on airplanes, trains after court ruling (Reuters) -The Biden administration will no longer enforce a U.S. mask mandate on public transportation, after a federal judge in Florida on Monday ruled that the 14-month-old directive was unlawful, overturning a key White House effort to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Soon after the announcement, United Airlines and Alaska Airlines relaxed the restrictions effective immediately on all domestic flights. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, an appointee of President Donald Trump, came in a lawsuit filed last year in Tampa, Florida, by a group called the Health Freedom Defense Fund. Judge Mizelle said the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had exceeded its authority with the mandate, had not sought public comment and did not adequately explain its decisions. A U.S. administration official said while the agencies were assessing potential next steps, the court’s decision meant CDC’s public transportation masking order was no longer in effect. The administration could still opt to appeal the order or seek an emergency delay in the order’s enforcement. “Therefore, TSA will not enforce its Security Directives and Emergency Amendment requiring mask use on public transportation and transportation hubs at this time,” the official said in a statement. “CDC recommends that people continue to wear masks in indoor public transportation settings.”
The silent phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: Biden administration does nothing as US cases begin to rise - In the face of another tide of the highly contagious BA.2 subvariant of Omicron, the response by the Biden administration is to see nothing, say nothing and do nothing. As Politico recently wrote, “The White House is publicly arguing that the country has finally arrived at a promising new stage in the pandemic fight—one that a recent spike in COVID cases won’t spoil.” This goes completely against any sane public health advice and, as some experts have noted, is being done quite openly on the basis of political calculation. Unabashedly, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the president’s medical adviser, and Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), have openly endorsed the White House’s view to allow the population to face another surge of infections, suggesting people can make individual choices on the amount of risk they want to take. Fauci recently said on ABC , “What’s going to happen is that we’re going to see that each individual is going to have to make their calculation of the amount of risk they want to take.” Such comments, however, do not qualify as sound medical advice for a highly contagious, rapidly evolving airborne pathogen in a highly mobile, interconnected, global society. In the final analysis, the political motivation of Fauci’s statement shows it is a threat to the working class, which has always assumed the largest burden of the pandemic. Dr. Maureen Miller, professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, observed to ABC News, “We’re at a time when US public health authorities are basically declaring ‘People, you’re on your own when it comes to determining how to co-exist with COVID-19.’ Sadly, the tools we’ve relied on to determine risk levels are being discounted at best and discontinued at worst.” There has been a revolving door between the demands of the White House and guidance supplied by the CDC that have, in a stepwise fashion, all but eliminated the ability of the public to track the spread of COVID in any meaningful way. Perhaps even more asinine are recent comments by public health expert Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House’s new COVID-19 response coordinator. Commemorating his recent appointment by kicking off his celebrity tour of the news programs last week, he told NPR, “If you think about where we are as a country, we are at a really good moment.” By “a really good moment” Jha is not referencing the recent lull in cases after the last wave of infections that killed nearly 180,000 people since mid-December, of which 41 percent were vaccinated based on data tracked by the CDC.
As Omicron BA.2 subvariant surges in the US, Biden administration deepens COVID-19 coverup - The latest surge of COVID-19 is now well underway in the United States, driven by the highly infectious and immune-resistant Omicron BA.2 subvariant. The mass travel and large indoor congregations for the Easter holiday will fuel an already raging fire throughout much of the country. According to the New York Times coronavirus tracker, the official seven-day average of daily new cases was 37,810 on Saturday, an increase of 38 percent over the past two weeks. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, due to inadequate testing, the likely real number of daily new infections in the US is far higher at roughly 270,000 per day. Thirty-two states, Puerto Rico, Washington D.C. and the Virgin Islands have all seen an increase in official daily new cases over the past two weeks. The Northeast has been hardest hit so far, as BA.2 first became dominant in that region of the country, with New York and other states now seeing a growth in COVID-19 hospitalizations. The surge of BA.2 in the US takes place only four months after the Omicron BA.1 subvariant ripped through the country, killing over 185,000 Americans and driving the official death toll above 1 million, according to Worldometer. During the month of January, COVID-19 supplanted cancer and heart disease as the leading cause of death in the US. At present, it stands as the third leading cause of death, killing an average of 512 Americans every day, according to the Times. During the BA.1 surge, the Biden administration effectively adopted the “herd immunity” strategy of the Trump administration, encouraging states to dismantle COVID-19 data reporting systems and lift all mitigation measures to slow the spread of the virus. Starting in early February, nearly every state ended mask mandates that were still in place. To justify this policy, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued new masking guidelines which weighted hospital capacity over infection figures, emphasizing “individual and household-level prevention behaviors” over basic principles of public health. Numerous states drastically curtailed COVID-19 testing sites, and testing is now at its lowest level since the summer of 2021. Federal pandemic funding began to evaporate in March, with the result that uninsured people now have to pay $100 for more accurate PCR tests. In February, the Biden administration urged states to reclassify what qualify as COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths by using the artificial distinction between those hospitalized “with COVID-19” and those hospitalized “from COVID-19,” a talking point of the far right since the start of the pandemic. Despite the fact that at least a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths take place over 30 days after infection, in March, Massachusetts adopted a policy of discounting such deaths, retroactively deleting nearly 4,000 COVID-19 deaths from its records. In a still-unexplained change that took place amid a record surge in child hospitalizations and deaths from Omicron, on March 16 the CDC deleted 72,277 deaths from its Data Tracker website, including a quarter of all child deaths. Despite these data manipulations, these children and adults killed by COVID-19 are not coming back to life.
CDC shakes up COVID travel advisory system, removes every country from its 'Do Not Travel' list - After months of warning all travelers to avoid a long list of countries due to "very high" COVID-19 levels, the CDC has removed all countries from its "Do Not Travel" list.The federal agency on Monday removed 89 countries from its "Do Not Travel" list. The highest Level 4 designation will now be reserved for "special circumstances" reflecting a dangerous spike in COVID cases, a new variant or health care infrastructure collapse.While the Level 4 list had at one point included well over 100 destinations, there arecurrently no Level 4 countries.Level 1, Level 2 and Level 3 classifications continue to be based on a 28-day incidence or case counts. Countries with a "high level of COVID-19" are considered Level 3. Travelers who are not fully vaccinated are still advised to "avoid travel" to these destinations, but the warning does not apply to fully vaccinated visitors. Travelers with weakened immune systems are urged to check with doctors before visiting.
CDC Delenda Est by Yves Smith -It would be possible, without a huge amount of effort, to write chapters on how the CDC has persistently endangered the public via favoring political expediency, commercial interest, and sheer laziness over public health. And bear in mind that any single chapter documenting the CDC’s abject dereliction on a critical Covid issue would be sufficient to justify razing the agency. Oh, and Lambert has already done a great deal of this work; Naked Capitalism could easily cobble together a book-length indictment from its archives. I am entirely serious in the recommendation that the CDC, which now has about 32,000 employees, be shut down and a new body or bodies created in its place. It is imperative that any new Federal public health agencies have no more than 20% of their staffers come from the CDC. I challenge readers to identify any company or government body with more that 20,000 members that was at CDC-level dysfunction and has been turned around. Even CalPERS at a mere 3000 employees looks irreparable. We’ll discuss two new entries on the CDC’s rap sheet. The first is that the CDC only now is planning to launch a new “forecasting center”. Mind you, this comes as the agency has repeatedly acted as if Covid is over, as in so harmless if you are vaccinated that Americans collectively should stop thinking about it. From the Associated Press: The new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics launched Tuesday. Its leaders say predicting the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been hampered by data-collection problems. In contrast, the United Kingdom uses regular population sampling with swab tests and blood draws to get a clearer picture of who’s been infected, said Marc Lipsitch, the new center’s science director. He said similar sampling should be considered in the U.S. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention needs to have better access to data from state governments and hospitals, said Caitlin Rivers, the center’s associate director. CDC has been granted temporary authority for COVID-19 data collection, but the agency broadly relies on voluntary reporting and complex data agreements with states, Rivers said. I am about ready to break china. This humble blog has said from the get-go that the CDC’s primary role is to be a data shop, and incoming chief Rochelle Walensky needed to make fixing that a top priority. Given the CDC’s dependence on state public health agencies for many key inputs, Walensky should have sought their public health leaders out immediately, either inviting them to Atlanta or going out to meet them. No such outreach occurred. Had Walensky shown interest in their needs and impediments, and either gotten funding for them in the huge CARES package, or offered CDC resources and templates to shore up their efforts, it would have helped increase accuracy, timeliness and completeness of reporting. It is particularly frustrating to see the CDC only now take up the obvious idea that the UK implemented in 2020: of large-scale (100,000 each) population-wide testing (I believe swabbing as well as blood tests) every five to six weeks to determine disease prevalence. For instance, these so-called REACT surveys enabled the UK to estimate, based on the rate of decline in antibody levels, that immunity from infection lasted only about six to eight months. The second fresh outrage is the CDC’s Emily Litella “Never mind” on masks in airplanes and airports.
Mask mandate’s sudden end sparks confusion, mixed messages -The sudden end to the mask mandate for planes, trains and buses has sparked confusion for travelers and uncertainty over how to approach travel, especially as the Biden administration recommends that Americans still wear masks on public transit. President Biden on Tuesday told reporters “that’s up to them” when asked if people should continue to wear masks on planes. His remarks differed from the White House’s messaging since a federal judge in Florida struck down the mandate. White House officials have repeatedly said that they still recommend masks based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance. Biden wore a mask on Air Force One when he traveled to New Hampshire, a striking difference from the videos and images circulating of travelers taking their masks off in airports and on flights. The White House cited CDC guidance. Major U.S. airlines and Amtrak stopped enforcement of mask wearing on Monday evening. Uber and Lyft have also dropped their mask requirements and some major airports like San Francisco International Airport and Dallas-Fort Worth Airport have moved to make masks optional. “We are moving to a different stage of the pandemic here. It’s not about top-down mandates but rather about the government empowering individuals to make the best decision for themselves,” said Leana Wen, a public health professor at George Washington University. She said that people should understand that even though they are not required to wear a mask, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they shouldn’t. “The most challenging will be for two groups,” she said. “One is individuals who are at very high risk for severe illness if they contract COVID-19 themselves and also for families with very young children, who are too young to be unvaccinated and maybe even too young to mask.” White House press secretary Jen Psaki pushed back on the notion that it is a confusing time for travelers. “I would dispute the notion that people are confused, we are here to alleviate their confusion. The CDC continues to advise and recommend masks on airplanes,” she said on Air Force One on Tuesday. “We’re abiding by the CDC recommendations, the president is, and we would advise all Americans to do that.”
White House pushes back against Delta statement that called COVID ‘an ordinary seasonal virus’ -The White House and others pushed back against a statement Delta Air Lines made on Monday regarding its masking guidance in which the company called COVID-19 “an ordinary seasonal virus.”“We are relieved to see the U.S. mask mandate lift to facilitate global travel as COVID-19 has transitioned to an ordinary seasonal virus,” Delta said, according to a screenshot of the original statement shared by a reporter from The New York Times.An official from the White House quote-tweeted the Times reporter’s post, pushing back against Delta’s statement.“COVID is not an ‘ordinary seasonal virus,’” White House assistant press secretary Kevin Munoz tweeted.Health experts also immediately slammed the press release from the airline.“Hey @Delta- Deaths from Covid: >1 million Deaths from Flu: 12k- 52k,” Aditi Nerurkar, a lecturer on global health and social medicine at Harvard Medical School, tweeted. “This is not an ‘ordinary seasonal virus.’”“I don’t care what you think about masking, but @Delta’s comment that #SARSCOV2 has transitioned to become an ‘ordinary seasonal virus’ is just bonkers, has no basis in science and is outright misinformation misleading their customers (of which I am one!),” Gregg Gonsalves, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, tweeted.Multiple news outlets reported that Delta updated its statement on Tuesday. A Delta spokesperson told NPR in an email that the statement had been updated “for clarity and accuracy.” The updated statement from Delta said that the coronavirus is transitioning “to a manageable respiratory virus.”
Health experts urge parents traveling with kids to continue to wear masks, consider not taking flights – The Hill -- U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle based in Tampa, Florida struck down the Biden administration’s mandate on Monday requiring that all passengers on trains, buses and planes wear face masks. As a result, a number of major US airlines including American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines dropped their mask requirements. JetBlue, Spirit Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, Alaska Airlines and Allegiant Airlines all said they would make mask wearing optional on their flights. The move has garnered pushback from many health professionals who worry that the policy will worsen the spread of the virus and will place more Americans—especially those who have yet to be vaccinated or are too young to be inoculated—at higher risk of contracting the virus. At the same, some of the nation’s leading public health experts argue that masks aren’t necessary given the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic. “We’ve just come out of a holiday weekend with Easter and Passover and plenty of people getting together with family members and friends,” said Jessica Justman, associate professor of medicine in epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “I am concerned that that is going to take BA.2 and light a match under it.” Changing America spoke with three health experts about what the shift in mask policy means for parents traveling with children, and what they can do to keep themselves and their kids safe while flying. “The recommendation all along has been not to rely solely on vaccination to protect you, but to include other layers of protection as long as the virus is actively circulating around you,” Bruce Y. Lee, professor of health policy and management at the City University of New York’s School of Public Health. “So that’s the concern, that you really are down to either one or no layers of protection for many people.” Lee also warned that the upcoming weeks are going to be “a challenging time to fly” now that facemasks are no longer mandatory on airplanes. For parents, Lee recommends that they consider whether taking a plane is even necessary for their travel. “It’s probably better to avoid flights if you can, so if you can drive somewhere you should opt for that rather than taking a flight,” said Lee.
DOJ to appeal mask ruling after CDC request - The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Wednesday said it would appeal a ruling striking down the mask mandate for public transportation after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) requested it appeal. “In light of today’s assessment by @CDCgov that an order requiring masking in the transportation corridor remains necessary to protect the public health, the Department has filed a notice of appeal,” a DOJ spokesman tweeted. The CDC said in a Wednesday statement that “to protect CDC’s public health authority beyond the ongoing assessment announced last week, CDC has asked DOJ to proceed with an appeal in Health Freedom Defense Fund, Inc., et al., v. Biden, et al.” “It is CDC’s continuing assessment that at this time an order requiring masking in the indoor transportation corridor remains necessary for the public health,” the agency added. The announcement helps bring more certainty to the administration’s course of action after officials deliberated over whether to appeal the ruling, which was issued Monday. The CDC order requiring masks for travelers had been set to last until May 3, when many experts expected it to expire anyway. While the mask mandate will remain suspended for the time being, and likely was going to expire soon anyway, a major reason public health experts had pushed for an appeal is to preserve the CDC’s legal authority for the future. If the current ruling from a federal judge in Florida was not appealed and allowed to stand, they feared it would handcuff the CDC if it needed to reimpose the mandate in response to a more dangerous variant down the line. The move is politically fraught, though, and is sure to draw rebukes from Republicans. Polls have shown the public is split on whether to continue the transportation mask mandates. The administration is now in the position of having to carry out a legal fight to maintain masking powers for the future, even though officials are seeking to project more of a sense of normalcy and Democratic governors across the country previously lifted mask mandates in other settings. “CDC will continue to monitor public health conditions to determine whether such an order remains necessary,” the agency said. “CDC believes this is a lawful order, well within CDC’s legal authority to protect public health.”
DOJ Files Perfunctory Appeal to Revive Travel Mask Mandate The Biden administration on Wednesday appealed a federal judge’s ruling that struck down a mask mandate for public transportation.After a Florida-based judge appointed by former President Donald Trump killed the mask mandate on Monday, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) said Tuesday that it would appeal the decision if the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) determined the policy was still necessary given the current state of the Covid-19 pandemic.In the face of mounting pressure from public health experts and advocates, the CDC requested the appeal, saying in a statement that “at this time an order requiring masking in the indoor transportation corridor remains necessary for the public health.”“CDC will continue to monitor public health conditions to determine whether such an order remains necessary,” the statement continued, adding that the federal agency “believes this is a lawful order, well within CDC’s legal authority to protect public health.”Citing the CDC’s assessment, Anthony Coley, a DOJ spokesperson, confirmed on Twitter that the department filed a notice of appeal.Scientist Lucky Tran said that he is “glad the CDC is at least doing the bare minimum and appealing the ridiculous court decision to overturn the transportation mask mandate!”Groups including People’s CDC—of which Tran is a member—and Marked by Covid had called onthe Biden administration to fight the right-wing judge’s ruling.Marked by Covid noted that Wednesday’s filing does not include a request for an emergency stay that would reimpose the mandate until a decision is made by a higher court.In addition to announcing the request that DOJ appeal Monday’s ruling, the CDC reiterated Wednesday that it “continues to recommend that people wear masks in all indoor public transportation settings.”“As we have said before, wearing masks is most beneficial in crowded or poorly ventilated locations, such as the transportation corridor,” the agency added. “When people wear a well-fitting mask or respirator over their nose and mouth in indoor travel or public transportation settings, they protect themselves, and those around them, including those who are immunocompromised or not yet vaccine-eligible, and help keep travel and public transportation safer for everyone.”
Democratic senators voice concerns on long COVID --Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.) on Wednesday released a letter to the National Institutes of Health pressing the agency for answers over what they called the “slow pace” of research into long COVID-19. Lawmakers are turning increasing attention to long COVID-19, the name for a range of symptoms like fatigue and difficulty concentrating that can linger for months after some people initially get COVID-19.But Whitehouse and Markey say they are concerned that NIH has been slow to research potential treatments, given that there currently are not any that have been proven to work. “We are concerned by reports that the agency has been slow to launch COVID research efforts and prioritized long COVID observational studies over investigations of possible treatments and therapeutics to help those suffering from its symptoms,” Whitehouse and Markey write in the letter to NIH acting Director Lawrence Tabak. They point to reporting from Stat that the NIH has been slow to enroll patients in studies of long COVID-19. Some estimates peg the number of Americans with long COVID-19 at between 7.7 and 23 million. Congress provided a hefty amount, $1.15 billion, in December 2020, to NIH for long COVID-19 research, and the senators ask how much of that funding remains unspent, as well as if additional funding or authorities are needed from Congress. The Government Accountability Office estimates that between 7.7 and 23 million Americans have long COVID-19. “Should this projection prove accurate, our health care system will face increased strain in the years to come,” the senators write. “In addition to these effects on health care, long COVID threatens our economic recovery, potentially exacerbating workforce shortages and straining social safety net programs.” With hospitals no longer facing surges of patients, more attention is turning to longer-term effects below the surface. A group of Democratic lawmakers has also introduced a bill to provide funding for long COVID-19 clinics in an effort to improve care.
Biden job approval second lowest among presidents since 1950s: Gallup --President Biden’s approval numbers remain stuck at near-record lows as he faces a series of setbacks, according to a new poll. The latest Gallup survey released Friday finds that roughly 41 percent of U.S. adults approve of the job Biden is doing just over a year into office, about the same as previous surveys showing him underwater among the public. Fifty-six percent of those surveyed in the latest poll disapprove of Biden’s job performance as president. That’s a near reversal from his approval numbers when he entered office, when 57 percent of adults surveyed said they approved of the way he was handling his job. Gallup noted that Biden’s average approval rating for this point in his term is lower than all other predecessors going back to the 1950s, with the exception of former President Trump, who had a 39.1 percent favorability during the same period in his term. Several post-World War II presidents in their first term even had fifth-quarter averages above 50 percent, with three — John F. Kennedy, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush — above 70 percent, according to Gallup’s data. Biden’s approval numbers have steadily fallen since he took office in January 2021, and the latest survey tracks with other recent polls, including a Politico-Morning Consult poll from last month that found Biden’s approval at about 45 percent. Biden’s upside-down job approval rating could ultimately impact this year’s midterm elections, with Democrats defending slim majorities in the House and Senate.
Woman dies after getting stuck on U.S. border wall --Federal agents made a gruesome discovery last week in Douglas, Ariz., when a woman’s body was found hanging from a towering wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.The 32-year-old Mexican woman was found unresponsive and ensnared in the fence on the U.S. side of the border on April 11, the Cochise County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement. She was taken to a hospital, where she was pronounced dead. Officials have not released the woman’s name. The sheriff’s office responded to a call from U.S. Border Patrol agents around 11 p.m. Authorities believe the woman climbed to the top of the wall using a ladder and a harness similar to those used for rappelling. As she attempted to descend the U.S. side of the wall, authorities said, her foot and leg became ensnared, trapping her upside down “for a significant amount of time.” The section of the border wall the woman attempted to scale was built during the Trump administration, Ricardo Pineda, head of the Mexican consulate in Douglas, told The Washington Post. The barrier is made of tall, vertical steel posts placed inches apart.“That’s a part of the wall where the border bars are very high,” Pineda told The Post in Spanish. A backpack, socks and a metal ladder were found near the scene, images shared with The Post show. An autopsy revealed she died of traumatic asphyxia, Chief Medical Examiner Greg Hess told The Post. It is unclear whether the woman was climbing the wall alone. Pineda said she had probably hired smugglers known as coyotes to help her cross — or unknowingly paid a network of human traffickers posing as coyotes.
Lee Camp: NY Times Goes After Indie Journalists - Yves here. The fact that the media employees at the New York Times are attacking real journalists like Ben Norton is a yet another proof of how intent the officialdom is on crushing any deviations from its storyline. As much as Norton has a following, it’s not as if he has Tucker-Carlson-level reach.In comments yesterday, DonCoyote cited a germane quote by Chris Hedges from Is free speech a casualty of the Ukraine war? America’s commissars crack down on dissent: Shutting down critics in a decayed and corrupt society is equivalent to turning off the oxygen on a seriously ill patient. It hastens mortality rather than delaying or preventing it. The convergence of a looming economic crisis, fear by a bankrupt ruling class that they will soon be banished from power, the growing ecological catastrophe and the inability to thwart self-destructive military adventurism against Russia and China have set the stage for an American implosion.Those of us who see it coming, and who desperately seek to prevent it, have become the enemy.Lee Camp is a bit amped up in this video, but I might be too if I’d had my day job suddenly shut down as a result of the propaganda war and was anxious about building up a replacement audience.
Ilhan Omar mocked for voicing outrage over Easter worship on plane: 'Why do you hate Christians?' - Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., expressed outrage over a video of Christians singing on a plane, leading many Republicans to attack her for what they suggested was anti-Christian bigotry. Omar shared a video Saturday evening in which a worship leader with a guitar sings Christian worship music on an airplane. "I think my family and I should have a prayer session next time I am on a plane," Omar, who is Muslim, wrote with the video. "How do you think it will end?" Many Republican candidates responded, suggesting that Omar had expressed hatred or bigotry against Christians. "Why do you hate Christians, Ilhan?" Vernon Jones, a Black pro-Trump former Democrat who is running to represent Georgia in the U.S. House of Representatives, asked. "If the freedom of religion we enjoy here in America disturbs you, feel free to pack your bags and head back to Somalia, Sudan, or wherever you’re from. Take your brother with you." "In America, Muslims can & do pray in public," Jose Castillo, a Republican candidate running for Congress in Florida's 9th Congressional District, tweeted. "If she wants a country where Christians aren’t allowed to do the same [Omar] should go back to her own country," he added, presumably referring to Somalia, where she was born. (Omar is a naturalized U.S. citizen.) "Qatar - a country you’re very familiar with - plays Islamic prayers on the intercom before takeoff on their planes," Cicely Davis, a candidate in the GOP primary in Minnesota's 5th Congressional District, which Omar represents, tweeted in response to her opponent. "They have a designated prayer area & coordinates for Mecca are posted on the screens. It’s no problem. The issue is you hate Christians & Jews & lots of Muslims."
McCarthy furor underlines Trump’s grip on GOP -Supporters and critics of former President Trump are showing surprising unity in how they react to a new furor. The controversy around comments made about Trump by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), they say, has only served to underline Trump’s grip on the GOP — to the satisfaction of the president’s allies and the chagrin of his enemies. “I’ve heard that Trump doesn’t appear to be that upset about it because, in his mind, this highlights his power and influence in the Republican Party,” one Trump World adviser told this column, asking for anonymity to speak candidly. “A lot of the media is making an assumption about how Trump will react, which doesn’t actually fit with the reality of how Trump views things,” the adviser added. The former president, according to this theory, is far more consumed by questions of raw power — and whether people are willing to do his bidding — than he is by any questions of real consistency or principle. That may be good news for McCarthy, who these days goes out of his way to display his loyalty to Trump. That’s a sharp contrast to the views he expressed in the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection. The current controversy kicked off when New York Times journalists Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns revealed that, in the immediate aftermath of the attack on the Capitol, McCarthy told other GOP House members that he would talk to Trump and prod him to resign. McCarthy and at least one aide vigorously contested the veracity of that reporting — only for the journalists to produce an audio recording of a call that proved their account to be truthful. “I’m going to call him,” McCarthy is heard saying, suggesting he would tell Trump that “it would be my recommendation you should resign.” In the end, McCarthy did no such thing. Instead, a few weeks later, he headed to the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida to make peace with Trump, who had by then just left office. The new revelations opened McCarthy to immediate ridicule. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), one of the most fervent Trump critics among congressional Republicans, tweeted that McCarthy “was over Trump until he wasn’t, when he realized he needed him,” adding sardonically, “Thanks Kev.” For McCarthy, one key question is whether the uproar will endanger his chances of becoming Speaker if the Republicans win the House majority at November’s midterm elections. So far, there has been little sign of an outright insurrection from pro-Trump members against McCarthy. For the moment, they may be waiting to see what Trump himself has to say.
Trump campaign ordered to pay $1.3M in legal fees to Omarosa -Former President Trump’s presidential campaign was ordered Tuesday to pay $1.3 million in legal fees to former White House aide and “The Apprentice” star Omarosa Manigault Newman. The decision comes after Trump previously lost a court battle with Manigault Newman in which Trump accused the former aide of violating a nondisclosure agreement after she wrote a book about her experience in the White House.Arbitrator Andrew Brown said at the time the NDA was too vague to enforce, propelling Trump and Manigault Newman to go into another battle over legal fees for a case that spanned three years. Trump’s lawyers laid out several reasons the campaign should not have to cover legal fees, including saying Manigault Newman was acting in bad faith during and before the case. Brown denied the lawyers’ arguments and awarded the former aide more than $1.3 million. “In deciding to permit supplemental briefing, the Arbitrator took into consideration that Respondent did not bring this case. Respondent was defending herself in a claim which was extensively litigated for more than three years, against an opponent who undoubtedly commanded far greater resources than did Respondent,” Brown said.“This award is in full settlement of all remaining claims not already disposed of in this Arbitration,” he added. Lead attorney for Manigault Newman, John M. Phillips, said it is “the largest known attorney fee award against a Political Campaign or President we can find.”He added he hoped it would “send a message that weaponized litigation will not be tolerated and empower other lawyers to stand up and fight for the whistleblower and vocal critic against the oppressive machine.”
Trump says he doesn’t have any records related to NY attorney general’s subpoena -Former President Trump told a judge that he doesn’t have any documents that were subpoenaed by the New York attorney general as he fights an effort to initiate contempt proceedings in state court.In a court filing submitted Tuesday, Trump’s attorney, Alina Habba, said that the records a state court judge ordered to be turned over to the attorney general’s office are all in the possession of the Trump Organization.“After conducting a diligent search and review, Respondent’s counsel determined that Respondent was not in possession of any documents responsive to the Subpoena and that all potentially responsive documents were in the possession, custody or control of the Trump Organization,” Habba wrote.In February, New York Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron ordered Trump, his two eldest children and his business to comply with the subpoenas from state Attorney General Letitia James (D) as part of her investigation into Trump’s business practices.Trump is appealing the order that he sit for a deposition with James’s investigators.Earlier this month, the attorney general’s office asked Engoron to hold Trump in contempt for failing to produce any relevant documents after his lawyer assured the court that he would comply.James’s office is asking the judge to fine Trump $10,000 for each day that he has failed to comply. A spokesman for James declined to comment on Trump’s filing.
Greene rebuffs Jan. 6 criticism during tense hearing - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) took the witness stand on Friday as part of a hearing on whether she played a role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, becoming the first member of Congress to testify under oath about their involvement in the attack. The hours-long testimony featured a series of tense exchanges between Greene and attorneys for a group of her constituents who are seeking to have the first-term lawmaker barred from appearing on the May 24 Georgia primary ballot. Lawyers pressed Greene, a staunch ally of former President Trump and one of the most polarizing members of Congress, on her tweets, Facebook posts and comments leading up to the attack on the U.S. Capitol. She repeatedly refused to answer questions and rebuffed any suggestion that she had sought to incite or encourage violence during the congressional certification of President Biden’s 2020 electoral victory. Nevertheless, she stood by her claim that widespread voter fraud cost Trump a second term in the White House. “Under my opinion, there was a tremendous amount of fraudulent things that happened in the election,” Greene said on the witness stand. “And under my opinion I want to do anything I can to protect election integrity.” Asked at one point during her testimony whether she had heard in advance of the Jan. 6 riot whether anyone planned to enter the Capitol and engage in violence, Greene said she did not remember. Asked a similar question later in the hearing, she said that she had “never heard that from anybody.” The hearing, which lasted much of Friday, centered around a legal challenge filed by a group of Georgia voters represented by the group Free Speech for People seeking to disqualify Greene from appearing on the ballot in her primary next month. The case centers on a provision of the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution – known as the disqualification clause – which effectively bars any person from holding federal office who has previously taken an oath to protect and defend the Constitution and who has “engaged in insurrection” against the United States. The challengers argue that the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol was an insurrection, that Greene was involved in the attack and that her involvement should preclude her from serving in Congress. Attorneys for the challengers sought to make the case that although Greene was not directly involved in the riot on Jan. 6, she played a crucial role in inciting it and should be held accountable. Attorneys for the challengers especially homed in on Greene’s claim at the time that Jan. 6 would be “our 1776 moment.” Greene’s attorney, James Bopp, on the other hand, argued that Greene’s efforts to deny President Biden’s 2020 victory – including her calls for a response to the congressional certification of the electoral vote – qualified as “legitimate political speech.” Bopp also argued that removing Greene from the ballot would effectively deny the right to vote to thousands of her constituents, because they would not be able to cast their ballots for the candidate of their choice. “The right to vote is at stake – right here, right now,” Bopp said. “Because they want to deny the right to vote to the thousands of people in the 14th District of Georgia by having Greene removed from the ballot.” But the main highlight of the Friday hearing was testimony from Greene herself, who spent hours on the witness stand. During her testimony, Greene insisted she had “no knowledge of any attempt” to halt the congressional certification of the electoral vote. She said that, while she encouraged supporters to protest peacefully on Jan. 6, she “was not asking them to actively engage in violence or any type of action.” “I don’t support violence of any kind. I’ve said it over and over again,” she said. “I never mean anything for violence. None of my words ever, ever mean anything for violence.” Still, Greene reiterated her oft-stated belief that the 2020 presidential election was tainted by widespread voter fraud and that she did not believe Trump lost the election to Biden, though she also said that it was “not accurate” to say that she wanted Congress not to certify Biden as the winner.
Photos show Cawthorn wearing lingerie at apparent party: Politico -Two pictures of Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn (N.C.) shared with Politico show the embattled congressman at what appears to be a party in women’s lingerie.The political news outlet reported that it obtained the photos from a person who was previously close to Cawthorn, and his campaign. Another person who was formerly close with Cawthorn confirmed the pictures. Cawthorn is controversial figure in the Republican Party. He previously accused congressional colleagues of inviting him to orgies. Cawthorn told “Warrior Poet Society” podcast host John Lovell that lawmakers have invited him to orgies and done cocaine in front of him. He also recently called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy a “thug” amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Zelensky has been hailed internationally for his leadership amid the crisis in Ukraine, and he has vowed to remain in the country fighting with his people.The accusations caused a harsh response from his own party, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) chastising him for the comments. Cawthorn acknowledged the photos in a tweet Friday, saying they were from a vacation on a cruise and were taken before he ran for Congress.“I guess the left thinks goofy vacation photos during a game on a cruise (taken waaay before I ran for Congress) is going to somehow hurt me?” Cawthorn said. “They’re running out of things to throw at me…” he added.The photos also come after Cawthorn took to the House floor earlier this month to share his definition of a woman, alleging Democrats were waging a “war on biology.”Cawthorn defined a woman as having “XX chromosomes, no tallywhacker.”
House Democrats claim redistricting victory ahead of final maps The chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says his party will emerge from the decennial redistricting process in a better position to compete for the House majority over the next decade, claiming victory even as maps are still being finalized in a few remaining states. In an interview Monday, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) said Democrats had defied expectations to win district boundary lines that will be more favorable to his side, after observers had expected Republicans to draw themselves a more concrete advantage for the next five election cycles. “We won for the same reason we’re going to win in November. We’ve got a plan and they’ve got a bunch of assumptions that are infused with overconfidence and wishful thinking,” Maloney told The Hill. “Remember, we won 4.7 million more votes than the Republicans in 2020 and lost a bunch of seats. That tells you the maps are very unfair currently. We can argue for fair maps and do better. The other side depends on unfair maps to win elections.” Maloney pointed to a Republican strategy designed to shore up incumbents whose suburban and exurban districts appeared trending toward Democrats in recent cycles. In states like North Carolina, Georgia and Missouri, Republican-led legislatures opted to protect the gains they had already achieved, rather than reaching to win a maximum advantage. “We’ve seen them try to defend some incumbents who were at risk of losing their seats in suburban areas that are moving away from them, and that’s cost them on the overall map,” Maloney said. But Republicans argue that plan was a feature, not a bug, that will give their side a stronger foundation from which to build in the decade ahead.
Biden has told Obama he’s running again --President Biden has told former President Obama that he is planning to run for reelection in 2024, two sources tell The Hill. The admission to Obama is the latest indication that Biden is likely to run for a second term, something the president has spoken about publicly. During a press conference in Brussels last month, he told reporters he’d be “very fortunate” to run against his rival in the 2020 election, former President Trump. “[Biden] wants to run and he’s clearly letting everyone know,” said one of the two sources familiar with the conversations between Obama and Biden. The source also said that Biden, despite his faltering approval ratings, remains the most likely Democratic candidate to defeat Trump. This was a key part of Biden’s salesmanship to voters as he sought support for his 2020 bid — and a big reason primary voters rallied to him in South Carolina and Super Tuesday states where he sealed his status as the Democratic front-runner. “I believe he thinks he’s the only one who can beat Trump. I don’t think he thinks there’s anyone in the Democratic party who can beat Trump and that’s the biggest factor,” the source familiar with the Obama-Biden talks said.
Progressives take what they can get with Barr nomination — Amid a chorus of "good enough," Michael Barr’s nomination signals a low tide for progressive lawmakers who have spent the last year pushing the Biden administration and their moderate Democratic colleagues to nominate and confirm liberals to top financial regulatory posts. Barr, who the Biden administration recently announced as the nominee for the top Federal Reserve bank cop, represents the more moderate side of the Democratic bench. Progressives previously opposed him as the potential pick for comptroller of the currency over his recent work advising for crypto and fintech-friendly companies, such as his stint as an advisor to Ripple Labs, and on his work after the 2008 financial crisis that some Democrats said was too soft on financial institutions. But since then, Republicans have dealt some significant blows to President Joe Biden’s financial regulation picks. Sarah Bloom Raskin’s withdrawal from consideration as vice chair of supervision and Saule Omarova’s doomed nomination have left key regulatory positions unfilled, making it difficult for Democrats to fully pursue their policy agenda.
Biden Has Nominated a Man from the Sandy Weill/Robert Rubin/Tim Geithner School of Wall Street Hubris to Head Regulation at the Fed -- By Pam Martens - In addition to being a law professor at the University of Michigan, Michael Barr also holds the title as the “Joan and Sanford Weill Dean of Public Policy at the University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy.” The Ford School sits in a building called the Joan and Sanford Weill Hall, which was given that name as the result of a $5 million donation from the Weills.To anyone who hasn’t been in a coma since the Wall Street crash of 2008 – an event that sent the U.S. economy into the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression – an affiliation with the name “Weill” should have been an automatic disqualifier for any position in the Biden administration even remotely connected to regulating Wall Street. Sanford (Sandy) Weill is the mastermind who made the too-big-to-fail megabanks on Wall Street possible by getting the Glass-Steagall Act repealed in 1999 with help from Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin during the Bill Clinton presidency. For the first time in 66 years, the repeal meant that federally-insured, deposit-taking banks could merge with Wall Street’s casino-mentality trading houses. Weill needed that repeal so that he could merge his hodge-podge of trading houses with the federally-insured Citibank, creating a megabank called Citigroup. Rubin went directly from the Treasury Department to take a seat on Citigroup’s Board, where he was lavishly compensated to the tune of $120 million over the next decade. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission made a criminal referral to the Department of Justice, asking that Rubin’s conduct at Citigroup be investigated. Nothing more came of it. Joan Weill is Sandy’s wife – who shares her husband’s penchant for plastering his name on school buildings and rescinds her donation when she can’t get her way.Gerald Ford’s tenure on the Board (as well as Rubin’s) covered the period when Weill was creating dodgy debt bombs called Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) which moved subprime debt off Citigroup’s balance sheet. The SIVs blew up in 2008, forcing the subprime debt back onto Citigroup’s balance sheet, which led to a collapse in the bank’s stock price. Citigroup was a 99-cent penny stock by early 2009.Weill made out just fine, however. His Citigroup “dracula” stock options had turned Weill into a billionaire and he exited the bank two years before Citigroup’s collapse, thus allowing him to cash out of much of his share holdings.What is Barr’s connection to this mess? Barr worked in Rubin’s Treasury Department that promoted the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act and in Tim Geithner’s Treasury Department in the Obama administration which failed to restore the Glass-Steagall Act after the 2008 financial collapse, opting instead to pass the Wall Street lapdog legislation known as the Dodd-Frank Act. (See Dodd-Frank Versus Glass-Steagall: How Do They Compare?)Before failing up to become Obama’s Treasury Secretary, Geithner was the President of the New York Fed, whose bank examiners had missed all the signs that the casino was about to explode, but nevertheless was allowed to oversee the vast majority of the Fed’s bailout programs in 2008. Geithner had an unseemly closeness with Weill and Citigroup as it spun toward insolvency. (See our report: As Citigroup Spun Toward Insolvency in ’07- ’08, Its Regulator Was Dining and Schmoozing With Citi Execs.)David Dayen, Executive Editor of The American Prospect, has written an insightful article on the Barr nomination. We reached out to Dayen for any additional thoughts he might have. Dayen responded:“Michael Barr was Tim Geithner’s right hand during the Dodd-Frank process, and several staffers involved in the legislation have told me that he was more of a hatchet man who was instrumental in weakening the reform and untruthful along the way. It’s disappointing that there’s no will to fight this nomination among the leading reformers in the Senate, who are giving Barr too much credit for his consumer protection record and ignoring what he might do in the Fed supervision role. This is the kind of choice you’d expect Republicans to force on Joe Biden if they ran the Senate.”
Bank associations call for more clarity, oversight for Fed master accounts- Six leading bank associations are unsatisfied with the Federal Reserve’s latest proposed guidelines for granting master accounts to nontraditional banking institutions. In a joint letter submitted to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on Friday, the American Bankers Association, Bank Policy Institute, Consumer Bankers Association, Independent Community Bankers of America, Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America and The Clearing House called for more clarity about eligibility and oversight of such accounts. “Answers to these questions remain paramount to achieve consistent outcomes at the Reserve Banks and equitable access for the institutions they serve,” the groups wrote.
Bankers with bad CO2 targets face certification crackdown -Bankers trying to get their net-zero CO2 targets certified now face hard deadlines to reduce capital flows to fossil fuels. The Science Based Targets initiative, which is backed by the United Nations, plans to only verify emissions targets that include clear limits on financing oil, gas and coal, said Nate Aden, who heads SBTi’s financial industry project. The stricter process will also apply to asset managers. The decision follows evidence that the finance industry has continued to channel hundreds of billions of dollars into the world’s biggest polluters, despite touting net-zero goals. Over the past 12 months, banks provided more than $600 billion in capital to oil, coal and gas producers, roughly unchanged from the previous year, according to Bloomberg data. And major asset managers still hold about $550 billion in fossil-fuel developers, according to an analysis by Reclaim Finance.
U.K. regulators tell JPMorgan to review its risk management - U.K. regulators have told JPMorgan Chase to review how the firm manages its operational risk as the Prudential Regulation Authority intensifies its scrutiny of the reporting processes of banks it supervises.JPMorgan has been instructed to commission a section 166 review, which typically involves appointing a consultancy to analyze the accuracy of regulatory reporting, according to people familiar with the situation, who asked not to be named discussing private matters. The reviews can lead to reports recommending changes, which in some cases can prove large-scale and expensive/ A spokesman for the bank declined to comment. The Bank of England’s PRA, which supervises banks, said it doesn’t comment on individual reviews. The PRA has also ordered HSBC Holdings to conduct a similar exercise around its reporting of credit risk, Bloomberg News reported in February.
Crypto bank violated anti-money-laundering rules, OCC says The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has issued an enforcement action against Anchorage Digital Bank for inadequate anti-money-laundering controls.Anchorage, based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, became the first cryptocurrency company to receive a national bank charter in January 2021. It largely operates as a crypto custody provider and raised $350 million in a Series D funding round a little over three months ago. “The OCC holds all nationally chartered banks to the same high standards, whether they engage in traditional or novel activities,” acting Comptroller Michael Hsu said in a statement Thursday. “When institutions fall short, we will take action and hold them accountable to ensure compliance with federal laws and regulations.”
Behind the OCC's decision to create fintech supervision specialists -A lot had changed in the decade since the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency last overhauled its supervision of small and midsize banks, according to agency executive Sydney Menefee.Fintechs exploded onto the scene, taking market share from traditional banks, partnering with community institutions or — in the case of companies such as SoFi and Varo — obtaining bank charters.That’s why one of the centerpieces of the agency’s recent restructuring of oversight of national banks below $60 billion was to put innovative banks and technology service providers under the purview of a single deputy comptroller, Menefee said. (That person hasn't yet been named.)
BankThink: BNPL regulation is urgently needed. But not all providers are the same. | American Banker - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau late last year opened an inquiry into buy now/pay later programs, which sent the shares of Affirm and other fintechs tumbling. This move toward responsible financing is a necessity and has been expected for some time — and now the question is how regulators should go about it.Without falling within a credit-related regulatory framework, small venture-backed BNPL teams innovated faster than large financial institutions and developed, launched, tested and promoted their services at a dizzying speed with almost no restraint. Today, they have the ability to shift consumer behavior — a tremendous amount of capital is being invested into the BNPL market, and billions of dollars of credit are being deployed by giant fintechs.But consumers that use these nonregulated financial services can potentially be on the receiving end of irresponsible lending and data-collection practices. Easily accessible BNPL services can mean missed payments that incur a fine or affect a credit report. And there’s also no limit; consumers could utilize over five different BNPL services within a single month.
BankThink: Updated customer identification rules are long overdue | American Banker - Modern customer identification regulations are not only outdated, but actually contribute to a rise in identity crimes. New threats posed by identity fraud today have made the federal Customer Identification Program regulatory framework obsolete, and also exacerbate the issues that CIP was designed to address. Federal regulators, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network in particular, are exploring whether modernization of these rules is necessary. In fact, it is critically overdue.Take synthetic identity fraud, for example. This type of identity crime — which causes billions in losses to financial institutions — was seemingly designed by fraudsters to circumvent CIP regulatory requirements. A "mature" synthetic identity has some amount of positive credit history and a name, date of birth, Social Security number and address that match with what appears to be a credit report of a legitimate person, and which is often used for nondocumentary ID verification.In the event this application is approved for even a relatively "low-risk" credit product, the financial institution will face losses from “bust-out” fraud and the regulatory and reputational harm that comes from money laundering or other financial crimes for which synthetic identities are often used. For example, based on our analysis, credit card accounts associated with synthetic identities charge off at a rate 50 times more frequently than a typical consumer, and for an average of $13,000. Some financial products are specifically targeted by synthetic identities as a means to build their credit score and receive larger lines of credit elsewhere.
Feds warn about cyber threats -Three federal agencies and a number of international partners issued a joint advisory on Wednesday regarding Russian cyber threats targeting critical infrastructure that could affect “organizations both within and beyond Ukraine.” The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) in a statement on Wednesday said the advisoryis “the most comprehensive view of the cyber threat posed by Russia to critical infrastructure released by government cyber experts since the invasion of Ukraine in February.” The advisory includes information regarding “malicious cyber operations” perpetrated by actors associated with the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) and the Russian Ministry of Defense, Central Scientific Institute of Chemistry and Mechanics, according to CISA. The agency said the advisory also includes information on Russia-associated cyber threat and cybercrime groups, some of which have recently expressed support for the Russian government.
Musk targets Twitter board as company adopts 'poison pill' (Reuters) -Elon Musk took a swipe at the board of Twitter on Monday after the social media company adopted a “poison pill” to protect itself from the second-biggest shareholder’s $43 billion cash buyout offer. “Board salary will be $0 if my bid succeeds, so that’s ~$3M/year saved right there,” Musk tweeted in response to a user’s post criticizing the board. Musk, a self-described “free speech absolutist” who has been critical of Twitter’s policies, did not elaborate on the tweet. Twitter did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Continuing his tirade against the company, Musk had launched a poll on Thursday asking his 80 million followers if “taking Twitter private at $54.20 should be up to shareholders, not the board”, to which a large majority responded “Yes”. Later, the Tesla chief executive also tweeted “Love Me Tender”, an Elvis Presley song, after Twitter opted a plan to sell shares at a discount to prevent any attempt by shareholders to amass a stake of more than 15%. Musk currently has a 9.1% stake. Meanwhile, in a series of tweet replies, co-founder and former CEO Jack Dorsey called out Twitter’s board on Saturday, saying “it’s consistently been the dysfunction of the company.” Dorsey’s statement was a reply to a tweet by venture capitalist Garry Tan that said: “The wrong partner on your board can literally make a billion dollars in value evaporate.” Shares of Twitter were up about 4% at $46.85, still significantly below Musk’s offer of $54.20 per share. They have risen roughly 15% since Musk disclosed his stake on April 4. Meanwhile, Twitter has also been informed by Thoma Bravo, a technology-focused private equity firm that had more than $103 billion in assets under management as of the end of December, that it was exploring the possibility of putting together a bid.
Twitter faces the ‘nightmare’ of being forced into free speech -Twitter’s board of directors gathered this week to sign what sounds like a suicide pact. It unanimously voted to swallow a “poison pill” to tank the value of the social media giant’s shares rather than allow billionaire Elon Musk to buy the company.The move is one way to fend off hostile takeovers, but what is different in this case is the added source of the hostility: Twitter and many liberals are apoplectic over Musk’s call for free speech protections on the site. Company boards have a fiduciary duty to do what is best for shareholders, which usually is measured in share values. Twitter has long done the opposite. It has virtually written off many conservatives — and a large portion of its prospective market — with years of arbitrary censorship of dissenting views on everything from gender identity to global warming, election fraud and the pandemic. Most recently, Twitter suspended a group, Libs of Tik Tok, for “hateful conduct.” The conduct? Reposting what liberals have said about themselves. The company seemingly has written off free speech too. Twitter CEO Parag Agrawalwas asked how Twitter would balance its efforts to combat misinformation with wanting to “protect free speech as a core value” and to respect the First Amendment. He responded dismissively that the company is “not to be bound by the First Amendment” and will regulate content as “reflective of things that we believe lead to a healthier public conversation.” Agrawal said the company would “focus less on thinking about free speech” because “speech is easy on the internet. Most people can speak. Where our role is particularly emphasized is who can be heard.”Not surprisingly, selling censorship is not a big hit with most consumers, particularly from a communications or social media company. The actions of Twitter’s management have led to roller-coastering share values. While Twitter once reached a high of about $73 a share, it is currently around $45. (Musk was offering $54.20 a share, representing a 54 percent premium over the share price the day before he invested in the company.)Notably, Musk will not trigger the poison pill if he stays below 15 percent ownership of the company. He could push his present stake up to 14.9 percent and then negotiate with other shareholders to take greater control.Another problem is that Twitter long sought a private buyer under former CEO Jack Dorsey. If Musk increases his bid closer to $60, the board could face liability in putting its interests ahead of the company’s shareholders.
U.S. CEO pay soars 31% on stock and cash awards, study finds (Reuters) – Median pay for top U.S. CEOs rose 31% last year to a record $20 million, a new study found, surging after a slight decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, as companies showered leaders with stock awards and cash bonuses. Chief executives receiving big pay increases included the leaders of tech giant Apple and semiconductor manufacturer Broadcom Inc,, according to the study released Monday by research firm Equilar. It covered the 100 largest U.S. companies by revenue that filed proxy statements by March 31. The same study a year ago found median CEO pay was $15.5 million, 2% lower than in 2020. Equilar director of content Amit Batish said companies looked to reward leaders who steered them through challenges like supply shortages. Rising revenue and share prices also boosted compensation. “A lot of these companies did well during the pandemic, that was definitely driving the increases in pay,” he said. The higher pay could prompt critical shareholder votes, Batish added, though other investors care more about returns. Among S&P 500 companies, average support for advisory votes on executive pay fell to 88.3% last year from 89.6% in 2020, according to pay consultancy Semler Brossy, and was at 85.6% this year so far. The trends also to pushed up the ratio of CEO pay to the pay of companies’ median workers to 254:1 from 238:1 a year ago, Equilar’s study said. It cited executives like Apple CEO Tim Cook, who received $98.7 million last year, up from $14.8 million in 2020, including a major stock award. Investors cast 64% of votes in favor of the pay at the company’s March 4 annual meeting, a low level of support. At chipmaker Broadcom, CEO Hock Tan received $60.7 million last year, up from $3.7 million the year before. On April 4, investors cast 80% of votes in favor of the pay.
Margin Debt: Down 4.3% in March - Note: The NYSE suspended its NYSE Member Firm margin data as of December 2017. We have replaced our Margin Debt data with FINRA data, which includes data for all firms, not just NYSE member firms.Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today's dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. At the 1997 start date, we were well into the Boomer Bull Market that began in 1982 and approaching the start of the Tech Bubble that shaped investor sentiment during the second half of the decade. The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak.Debt hit a trough in February 2009, a month before the March market bottom. It then began another major cycle of increases. FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through March. The latest debt level is down 4.3% month-over-month.
Just Six Wall Street Firms Borrowed $116.83 Billion from the Fed’s Money Market Bailout Fund – 72 Percent of the Total -- By Pam Martens and Russ Martens -The Federal Reserve has set up a veritable obstacle course to prevent the public from drilling down to see that just six big Wall Street firms received the lion’s share of loans from its emergency funding facility called the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF). The MMLF made emergency loans from March 23, 2020 through April 23, 2020, but the program did not end on April 23, 2020. That’s because these were not overnight loans. They were loans made for periods up to as long as 11 months in some cases – taking the program into 2021. The MMLF made loans against paper that could not be sold elsewhere that was sitting in money market funds that were having difficulty raising cash to meet redemption requests. The loans were for the same maturity as the paper being put up as collateral.The Fed knew that a Government Accountability Office (GAO) audit would want to combine all borrowing under one corporate parent name, in order to see who got the lion’s share of the money. The Fed knew this because that’s exactly what the GAO did when it audited the Fed’s Wall Street bailout programs that occurred during and after the financial crisis of 2008.To throw hoops and hurdles in the way of easy access to that information, the Fed listed some of the mutual fund sellers under their corporate parent name but listed other loans from the same corporate parent under the obscure name of individual mutual funds. For example, money market funds owned by BlackRock were sometimes listed as “BlackRock.” In other cases, they were listed as “TempCash” and “Plan Investment Fund.”Another large borrower, Federated, had its money market loans listed under “Federated” as well as acronyms “MOF” and “TFOF” – designations that members of the general public or even government auditors would find next to impossible to decode.It took Wall Street On Parade 12 hours to look up the CUSIP numbers associated with the loans to determine the parent corporation and combine all of their loans under one corporate parent name.We were left with the overarching suspicion that the Fed intentionally released this data in this form to hide the fact that, once again – despite a statutory mandate to do otherwise – it set up a loan facility that failed the test as being broad-based to a large number of participants.As the chart above shows, just six Wall Street firms received 72 percent of the $162.9 billion in cumulative loans made under the MMLF. The total cumulative loans for the six firms were as follows:
- Federated $27.75 billion
- JPMorgan $24.8 billion
- Morgan Stanley $19.55 billion
- UBS $17.3 billion
- Wells Fargo $15.5 billion
- BlackRock $11.98 billion
In other reporting we have done on the various Fed bailout programs, we have also provided the term-adjusted totals to illustrate which firms had use of the cheap Fed money for longer periods of time. With other Fed bailout programs, that was a fairly simple process because the Fed provided a column on its Excel spreadsheet with the specific number of days in the term of the loan. For example, in its Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Fed provided a column showing the loan was outstanding for one day, 14 days, 28 days, 42 days, etc. But with the MMLF, that column has gone missing. Just the maturity date is listed for 1,508 individual loan transactions, meaning we would have to calculate the term for all of those loans.
While JPMorgan Chase Was Getting Trillions of Dollars in Loans at Almost Zero Percent Interest from the Fed, It Was Charging Americans Hit by the Pandemic 17 Percent on their Credit Cards - By Pam and Russ Martens --Under just three of the emergency bailout programs offered by the Fed to Wall Street, units of the megabank JPMorgan Chase tapped over $6 trillion in cumulative (term-adjusted) loans from September 17, 2019 through the first quarter of 2020. That figure will definitely go higher as the Fed is releasing the names of the banks and the amounts they borrowed on a quarterly basis for its repo loan program.Thus far, the numbers stack up as follows: a trading unit of JPMorgan Chase borrowed $6.19 trillion from the Fed’s repo loan program from September 17, 2019 through March 31, 2020. (Those are cumulative, term-adjusted figures.) A significant chunk of that money was borrowed at interest rates as low as 0.10 percent. The loans were collateralized with mostly treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).A trading unit of JPMorgan Chase also borrowed $400 billion in cumulative, term-adjusted loans from the Fed’s Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) during 2020. All of those loans were made at a fixed rate of 0.25 percent even though the Fed accepted lower-grade collateral, such as asset-backed securities, for some of the loans.JPMorgan Chase’s money market funds also needed to borrow a cumulative $24.8 billion from the Fed’s Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) to bail themselves out during March and April of 2020. Some of those loans didn’t mature until 2021. JPMorgan borrowed from the Fed’s MMLF at rates between 0.50 and 1.25 percent.While JPMorgan Chase, which has admitted to five criminal felony counts since 2014, was getting these sweetheart deals from the Fed, it was charging Americans who were struggling from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as much as 17 percent on their credit cards. You can read one of its credit card customer’s complaints about that 17 percent interest at this link at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) complaint database.Another JPMorgan Chase customer wrote to the CFPB that their employer filed for bankruptcy during the pandemic, leaving them unemployed. The customer said that when they asked JPMorgan for assistance in reducing the monthly amount they had to pay on their credit card, they were offered the following options: convert to a 60-month repayment plan with interest rates starting at 12 percent; no payment for 90 days but interest would continue to accrue at 14.24 percent; negotiate a payoff of the total principal balance of $14,000 with a 10 percent discount. (Where exactly would an unemployed person get $12,600 when they can’t meet their monthly credit card payment.) You can read the text of that complaint here.We asked the CFPB database to show us just complaints against JPMorgan Chase since it started receiving those cozy low-interest repo loans from the Fed on September 17, 2019 – months before any COVID-19 cases had been reported anywhere in the world. The database turned up 28,974 complaints. You can browse through them here.If you want to gauge the compassion that JPMorgan Chase has for its own low-wage tellers, you can read our report here. Despite the five felony counts and a rap sheetthat would make the Gambino crime family blush under the leadership of Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s Board has turned Dimon into a billionaire – on the backs of its low-wage tellers and customers paying double-digit interest rates on credit cards during a pandemic and declared national emergency.
Why Didn’t Vanguard, the Largest Mutual Fund Family in the U.S., Need to Borrow from the Fed while the Wall Street Titans Did? - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 19, 2022 ~ For the past week, Wall Street On Parade has been crunching the cryptic data released by the Federal Reserve on March 31 that named the mutual funds that couldn’t meet redemption requests in their money market funds in March and April of 2020 without tapping loans from the Fed.As we reported yesterday, the Fed loaned a cumulative total of $162.9 billion from its Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) in March and April of 2020 with 72 percent of that total going to just six mutual fund families: Federated $27.75 billion; JPMorgan $24.8 billion; Morgan Stanley $19.55 billion; UBS $17.3 billion; Wells Fargo $15.5 billion; and BlackRock $11.98 billion.There are two striking aspects to this story. First, no mainstream media outlet will go near the story. The same media outlets that battled the Fed in court for more than two years to name the Wall Street firms and how much they borrowed from the Fed after the 2008 financial crash are refusing to report on the second largest Fed bailout in U.S. history. That bailout includes not just loans made by the MMLF but by over a dozen other Fed bailout facilities created in 2019 and 2020. (See our earlier report: There’s a News Blackout on the Fed’s Naming of the Banks that Got Its Emergency Repo Loans; Some Journalists Appear to Be Under Gag Orders.)News blackouts involving major Wall Street news stories – the only industry in America running its own private justice system and a perpetual revolving door in Washington – should raise alarm bells among all Americans. We can see from Putin’s authoritarian rule in Russia what evolves from a silenced free press.The second striking aspect is that the largest mutual fund family in America, the Vanguard Group, didn’t need to borrow a dime from the Fed. According to a report by Andrea Travillian at Investopedia on January 29 of this year, the Vanguard Group had $6.151 trillion in Assets Under Management (AUM) at that time, making it the largest “retail asset manager in the world.”BlackRock ranks second on the Investopedia list and it needed to borrow a cumulative $11.98 billion from the Fed to bail out its money market funds while a different Fed bailout facility being run by – wait for it – BlackRock, was bailing out BlackRock’s Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). According to our number-crunching of the Fed’s Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, illiquid paper in the following forms was the root cause of the Fed’s need to bail out the money market funds of some of the biggest names on Wall Street: $70.35 billion or 43 percent went to bail out Asset-Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP); $57.27 billion or 35 percent went to bail out Certificates of Deposits, much of which were issued by foreign banks; $25.6 billion or 15.7 percent was needed to bail out Commercial Paper (paper from the Swiss global bank, Credit Suisse, was a big problem in that category as well as in the category of Certificates of Deposit); $9.7 billion or 6 percent bailed out municipal notes like those issued by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA); and the small sum of $45 million was used to bail out Variable Rate Demand Notes (VRDNs).
Insurers invested $536B in fossil fuel interests — analysis - Insurance companies invested more than $536 billion in fossil fuel interests in 2019, even as they paid damages for climate-accelerated catastrophes, according to a report released yesterday by the California Department of Insurance. The report examined about 1,200 insurance companies, all of which operate in California, often in addition to other parts of the United States. Large insurers use gains from investments to help pay losses. But California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara argued that dollars invested in fossil fuel companies are a growing risk, given climate change. “We need more climate-focused investments to solve our climate crisis, including from insurance companies that must do more to protect consumers and the environment,” Lara said in a statement. “This report is part of my continued comprehensive strategy to address insurance companies’ fossil fuel exposures and hold them accountable while letting consumers judge these companies’ progress on climate action for themselves.” The report is the most exhaustive study of fossil fuel investments by insurance companies ever done by any U.S. state, Lara said. It used S&P Global’s Trucost Environmental data, which includes climate and financial data sets, along with additional publicly available data, according to an aide for Lara. The report looked at information from 2018 and 2019, the most recent years with data available, and found that insurance companies increased their fossil fuel investments from $477 billion in 2018 to $536 billion in 2019. The American Property Casualty Insurance Association, a trade group for the insurance industry, said that the report “provides useful data but should not be used exclusively in evaluating the climate-related investment or commitments of any particular company. Also, this report should not be taken as a company’s current investment strategy given the lag in reporting time cycles.” The report comes as Californians deal with the severe impacts of climate change, including catastrophic wildfires, extreme storms and drought. Nationwide, the number of natural disasters causing $1 billion or more in damages has risen steadily for two decades, the report said. The report notes that the 2018 deadly Camp Fire in California triggered insured losses of $12 billion, which broke records at the time as the costliest event ever globally. Last year’s severe winter storm in Texas, however, is expected to cost $19 billion. “With losses mounting, insurers are under pressure to no longer avoid addressing the impact of a changing climate on their underwriting, pricing, investment decisions and bottom lines,” the report said. “Increased disclosure can help regulators assess the effectiveness of insurer actions to mitigate insurance risk due to climate change.” The report details investments in fossil fuel extraction, which it says shows exposure to potential stranded assets if governments implement policies to transition away from fossil fuels. Companies in 2019 had $96.8 billion invested in fossil fuel extraction activities, compared to $78.5 billion a year earlier. Those numbers are included in the larger fossil fuel investment totals.
CFPB, NYAG sue MoneyGram for repeat remittance violations - MoneyGram International was sued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and New York's attorney general for allegedly failing to deliver money to recipients and for repeatedly violating rules around remittance transfers for years. The CFPB and Attorney General Letitia James on Thursday sued the Dallas-based remittance provider for engaging in unfair acts or practices for failing to transfer funds, delaying refunds to customers and a slew of other violations. and a failure to rectify past violations. Bloomberg News Regulators allege that MoneyGram repeatedly gave consumers inaccurate information about when their remittance transfers would be available. When customers complained of errors, the company failed to provide a response or remedy, which is required by law.
Large data breaches reported by multiple mortgage firms --In the past month, a number of mortgage firms have disclosed cyberattacks affecting a combined hundreds of thousands of customers, amid reports of rising industry fraud risk.Lender American Financial Resources reported a data breach affecting 216,645 borrowers in March, according to a disclosure with the Indiana Attorney General’s Office. The Parsippany, New Jersey-based company identified suspicious activity in December and determined files including information such as social security numbers were accessed without authorization between Dec. 6, 2021 and Dec. 20, 2021. The firm offered affected customers complimentary one-year Kroll credit monitoring and identity theft protection services. It also implemented additional security measures including a new endpoint detection and response tool, according to public notices.
VA effort to increase home ownership among Native American vets falls short | National Mortgage News The Native American Direct Loan program, intended to increase homeownership amongmilitary veterans on tribal lands, is coming up short at helping those it was meant to serve, according to a review by the U.S. Government Accountability Office.Administered by the Department of Veterans Affairs, the VA established the loan program in 1992 as required by Congress at the time, but criticism and questions regarding its effectiveness have come from a range of stakeholders over the years, including advocacy groups and politicians. Last October, the VA embarked on reorganizing NADL, forming a team focused on improving its outreach and performance. The VA only originated 180 loans through NADL in the U.S. in the period from fiscal years 2012 to 2021, representing less than 0.1% of the potentially eligible pool of 64,000 to 70,000 Native American veterans, according to GAO. Of that number, 91 loans were issued in Hawaii, 89 in the continental U.S. and none in Alaska.
"Examining Resolution of Mortgage Forbearances and Delinquencies" -Here is a new report from the Philly Fed: Examining Resolution of Mortgage Forbearances and Delinquencies – April 2022: By our projections, 2.15 million mortgages are either in forbearance or past due; around 630,000 of those were still in forbearance as of April 7.Forbearances and seriously delinquent loans continue to decline to prepandemic levels, attributable to the strong housing market and loss mitigation activities implemented by policymakers, investors, and mortgage servicers. Nonetheless, there are still pockets of borrowers who remain at high risk of losing their homes and require special attention. This report documents how these loss mitigation programs have performed to date and the remaining pockets of risk.And an excerpt from the report: As shown in Table 1, as of April 7, we estimate that 629,714 mortgage loans remain in forbearance.These include mortgages from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), Veterans Affairs (VA), and the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — comprising almost all of the federally insured mortgages, along with the major private-sector mortgages from private-label mortgage-backed securities (PLMBS) and portfolio loans.Figure 1 presents the projected forbearance expirations, assuming borrowers take the maximum forbearance allowed by various programs. Note that 39 percent of forbearances are FHA/VA mortgages. Unless mortgage servicers can successfully execute home-retention options in the coming months, many borrowers face the prospect of selling their homes or losing them to foreclosure.In general, borrowers exiting forbearance have performed very well. The report shows that of 8.65 million forbearances, only 8% remain in active forbearance, and only 3% are delinquent, in-loss mitigation and not paying. Since the foreclosure moratoriums have ended, we've seen a pickup in foreclosures, but there will not be a huge wave of foreclosures.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 1.05% in March" -Note: This is as of March 31st. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 1.05% in March - The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 13 basis points from 1.18% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 1.05% as of March 31, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 525,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 7 basis points to 0.49%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 12 basis points to 1.38%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 28 basis points to 2.44%. “March was another month of lower forbearance rates, and a higher share of overall loans and forbearance-related workout loans that are current,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The share of loans in forbearance tuesdacontinues to dwindle and is just 5 basis points shy of hitting 1 percent - or 500,000 homeowners - after peaking at 4.3 million borrowers in June 2020. It has been a remarkable recovery for many homeowners in less than two years.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.The share of forbearance plans is decreasing, and, at the end of March, there were about 525,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
The worst interest rate upturn since 1994 is likely to produce the worst housing downturn in over a decade -- The recent increase in mortgage rates to over 5% is the most serious interest rate threat to housing in at least the past 30 years. As the below graph shows, the increase in over 2% is the biggest jump in mortgages since 1994: But additionally, in 1994, when interest rates jumped from 6.75% to 9.25%, that was a 37% increase in monthly mortgage costs. The jump in the past year from 2.65% to 5.00% makes for an 89% increase in monthly costs. In other words, in 1994 a $1000/month interest payment jumped to $1370; in the past year a $1000 payment would jump to $1890! And housing is very responsive to mortgage payments. Here’s a graph I have run many times before: the YoY change in mortgage rates (inverted, so that an increase in rates shows as a decrease; and *10 for scale), compared with the YoY% change in housing permits. Typically I only run this graph for the last 10 years; this time I’m taking it all the way back to before 1994: The YoY change in mortgage interest rates now has only been matched by the 1994 change. In response, in 1995 housing permits were down -10% YoY, and 15% from peak to trough, as shown in the graph below of permits for the last 30 years: The question, of course, is a 10% YoY decline from where. From the recent 1.9M high, the 1.6M low last summer, or somewhere in between? If the decline is 15%, as in 1994, that would take us back down to 1.7M permits. And I do expect a downturn. In 2013-14, there was less of a downturn than would be typically expected, partly because of pent-up demand from the Housing Bust, and partly due to the demographic tailwind of the Millennial generation reaching home-buying age. Neither of those buffers exist any more. Because of the effect on monthly interest payments, as discussed above, I suspect it will be worse. And that would almost certainly have enough impact on the economy next year to put us close to if not in a recession, all by itself.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 15, 2022. ... The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 68 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Ongoing concerns about rapid inflation and tighter US monetary policy continued to push Treasury yields higher, driving mortgage rates to their highest level in over a decade. Rates increased across the board for all loan types, with the 30-year fixed rate hitting 5.2%, the highest level since 2010,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The 30-year rate has increased 70 basis points over the past month and is 2 full percentage points higher than a year ago. The recent surge in mortgage rates has shut most borrowers out of rate/term refinances, causing the refinance index to fall for the sixth consecutive week. In a housing market facing affordability challenges and low inventory, higher rates are causing a pullback or delay in home purchase demand as well. Home purchase activity has been volatile in recent weeks and has yet to see the typical pick up for this time of the year.” The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.20 percent from 5.13 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months. The refinance index is at the lowest level since February 2019.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.77 million SAAR in March --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slip 2.7% in March - Existing-home sales decreased in March, marking two consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month, sales in March waned in three of the four major U.S. regions while holding steady in the West. Sales were down across each region year-over-year.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dipped 2.7% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in March. Year-over-year, sales fell 4.5% (6.04 million in March 2021)....Total housing inventory at the end of March totaled 950,000 units, up 11.8% from February and down 9.5% from one year ago (1.05 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month supply at the present sales pace, up from 1.7 months in February and down from 2.1 months in March 2021.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in March (5.77 million SAAR) were down 2.7% from the previous month and were 4.5% below the March 2021 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory increased to 0.95 million in March from 0.85 million in February. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 9.5% year-over-year (blue) in March compared to March 2021. Months of supply (red) increased to 2.0 months in March from 1.7 months in February.
Home sales slip in March; prices up 15 percent on last year --Home sales in the United States declined in March for the second consecutive month as the price tag of homes increased by about 15 percent from a year ago, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.Sales of homes in all regions of the U.S. stayed steady or dropped from the previous month and from a year ago, according to the group. Monthly sales declined the most in the Midwest, dropping 4.5 percent from February and 3.1 percent from March 2021. Existing home sales in the South declined by 3 percent from February and March 2021, while sales in the Northeast dipped 2.9 percent from February and 11.8 percent on last year. Sales in the West held steady from February, but also dropped 4.7 percent from March 2021. Although sales of homes declined in most regions, the median prices of existing homes in the U.S. have soared by 15 percent from a year ago, reaching a price of $375,300 in March 2022, up from $326,300 in March 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors. The South had the biggest jump in prices, with the median rising 21.2 percent since March 2021. The median price in the Northeast rose by 6.8 percent from last year, and prices in the Midwest and West jumped 10.4 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively. Prices have increased for 21 consecutive months of year-over-year comparisons, the longest streak in history, according to the report. Properties remained on the market for 17 days on average in March 2022, one day less than February 2022 and March 2021. Eighty-seven percent of houses sold in March were on the market for less than a month, according to the report. First time buyers constituted 30 percent of home sales in March, down from 32 percent in March 2021 and up from 29 percent in February. Foreclosures and short sales represented less than 1 percent of sales, equal to these sales in February and March 2021. A recent poll by Fannie Mae, a government-backed company that buys mortgages from lenders, found that a record low of 25 percent of respondents said that now is a good time to buy a home. National Association of Realtors chief economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said higher home prices and rising interest rates have shrunk the pool of people who can afford to buy homes. “Higher prices and higher mortgage rates have boosted the required monthly payment to buy a home; it’s up by more than 40 percent from a year ago. This affordability challenge will shrink the buyer pool.” Yun wrote
As Mortgage Rates Begin to Bite, Home Sales Fall to Lowest since June 2020, Supply Rises for Second Month - By Wolf Richter -The spike in mortgage rates – a result of the Fed’s widely telegraphed future crackdown on inflation – would sooner or later have to impact the crazy housing bubble. We knew that. Now the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has spiked to well above 5%.For example, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported this morning that its weekly measure of the 30-year fixed rate jumped to 5.2%, the highest since April 2010, two full percentage points higher than two years ago, “causing a pullback or delay in home purchase demand,” the MBA said. “Home purchase activity has been volatile in recent weeks and has yet to see the typical pick up for this time of the year.”Given the huge increase in house prices, to be financed with these much higher mortgage rates, well, we know how this goes: Sales will decline because there are fewer buyers that can still afford to buy, and inventories will rise because there are fewer sales and because fidgety owners of multiple homes who hung on to those homes to ride up the market all the way are starting to put them on the market.So today, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously-owned homes – houses, condos, and townhouses – fell to the lowest since June 2020, down 4.5% from a year ago, the eighth month in a row of year-over-year declines, even as supply of homes listed for sale rose.The NAR expects home sales “to contract 10%” this year, it said, and it blamed mortgage rates and inflation: “The housing market is starting to feel the impact of sharply rising mortgage rates and higher inflation taking a hit on purchasing power.” But wait… We haven’t seen anything yet. It’ll be two months before the effects of today’s holy-moly mortgage rates show up in the data.The sales figures today are based on sales that closed in March, meaning that many of the deals were made in February with mortgage rate locks from February or January or even prior, when mortgage rates were much lower. In February, the average 30-year fixed rate rose from 3.7% to 4.1%. In January, it was around 3.5%.Many homebuyers today and in the coming weeks still have rate locks with lower rates from prior months. They’re still able to buy with those lower mortgage rates. But buyers now entering the market and who get a rate lock from today on are looking at mortgage rates above 5%.In other words, we won’t see the bulk of the effects on home sales from today’s holy-moly mortgage rates until the sales data for May is released in June.Sales of single-family houses dropped by 2.7% in March and 3.8% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.13 million houses, the lowest since June 2020.Sales of condos dropped 3.0% in March and by 9.9% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 condos, the lowest since August 2020.By Region, the percent change of the seasonally adjusted annual rate of total home sales in March from February, and year-over-year (yoy):
- Northeast: -2.9% from February, -11.8% yoy.
- Midwest: -4.5% from February, -3.1% yoy.
- South: -3.0% from February, -3.0% yoy.
- West: no change in February, -4.7% yoy.
More Analysis on March Existing Home Sales – Bill McBride - Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.77 million SAAR in February Excerpt: Sales in March (5.77 million SAAR) were down 2.7% from the previous month and were 4.5% below the March 2021 sales rate. Note: Sales for February 2022 were revised down from 6.02 million to 5.93 million. The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022. Sales declined 4.5% year-over-year compared to March 2021. This was the eighth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.... A key milestone will be when inventory is up year-over-year (YoY). My current guess is inventory will be up YoY near mid-year. Inventory will still be historically very low. Also note that 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.2% in March according to Freddie Mac. Now rates are around 5.35%. Sometimes people rush to buy as rates rise - anticipating further rate increases. However, eventually, higher rates will suppress demand. It seems likely we will see further negative impact on sales from higher rates, and more inventory in the coming months. There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).
Lawler: CoreLogic Home Purchases by Non-Investors and Investors - From housing economist Tom Lawler: Below is a table showing CoreLogic’s data on home purchases (using its extensive property records database) for different “sized” investors – “small” (3-9 properties owned), “mid-sized” (10-99 properties owned), and “large” (100+ properties owned), as well as for non-investors by quarter. Recall the CoreLogic defines “investor” as follows: “Using CoreLogic’s public records data, we define an investor as an entity (individual or corporate) who retained three or more properties simultaneously within the past 10 years.” This definition, by the way, may exclude a fair number of very small investor purchases who own only one or two investor properties. Note that in the second half of last year total home purchases were down just 3.1% from the second half of 2020, while non-investor purchases were down 14.4%.
More Americans losing confidence they will ever own a home – As the housing market remains volatile, with high mortgage rates and home prices, a new survey reveals more Americans are beginning to feel more pessimistic about the future of their own housing options. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released results from its 2022 SCE Housing Survey on Monday, compiling responses from about 1,200 Americans, with about 76 percent current homeowners and 25 percent current renters. It showed that while households expect strong home price growth of 7 percent over the next 12 months, renters felt a lower probability of ever owning a home, their reported likelihood of owning falling to 43.4 percent. Last year, the average likelihood of owning a home was at 51.6 percent—with 2022 showing the first reading below 50 percent in the survey’s history. Renters also indicated they expect rent increases of 11.5 percent over the next 12 months, compared with just 6.6 percent in February 2021. That’s consistent with a separate report from Realtor.com which found rent prices have spiked this year following a significant dip in 2020 and 2021 amid COVID-19. It found median rent in the 50 largest metros reached a new high of $1,792—a 17 percent increase from 2021. According to the New York Fed, attitudes toward housing as a financial investment remained strong, only slightly weakened from last year. About 71 percent of all survey respondents said buying property in their zip code was a “very good” or “somewhat good” investment. Last year, about 73.6 percent of respondents indicated the same responses. However, the share of respondents reporting that housing is a “bad” or “somewhat bad” investment rose about 3 percent—up to 9.9 percent compared to 6.5 percent a year ago. Those beliefs were reflected in how respondents envisioned their next home purchase, with the average expected probability of buying a home if the household were to move within the next three years falling sharply to about 61 percent. Last year, about 69 percent of people indicated the same response. That marks the lowest average expectation of buying a home if a household were to move since 2015. The current rise in mortgage rates doesn’t help, as the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a 10-year high of 5 percent last week.
Homes overvalued in 88% of metro areas: S&P - The vast majority of metropolitan statistical areas in the United States have become overvalued, Standard & Poor’s found in a new report reflecting fourth-quarter 2021 data.The percentage of MSAs with price-to-income ratios above their 15-year averages has risen to 88% from 50% in the ratings agency’s previous study, which was released Oct. 29. Homes were overvalued by an aggregate 15% in the fourth quarter, compared to 5% in the earlier report. Overvaluation and decreasing affordability could create a housing bubble, which would reduce returns from securitized-mortgage property liquidations in adverse scenarios where depreciation occurs, but experts have tended to downplay the risk.
Housing Starts Increased to 1.793 million Annual Rate in March -- From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately‐owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,793,000. This is 0.3 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,788,000 and is 3.9 percent above the March 2021 rate of 1,725,000. Single‐family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,200,000; this is 1.7 percent below the revised February figure of 1,221,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 574,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,873,000. This is 0.4 percent above the revised February rate of 1,865,000 and is 6.7 percent above the March 2021 rate of 1,755,000. Single‐family authorizations in March were at a rate of 1,147,000; this is 4.8 percent below the revised February figure of 1,205,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 672,000 in March. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. >Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in March compared to February. Multi-family starts were up 26.2% year-over-year in March. Single-family starts (red) decreased in March and were down 4.4% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high). Total housing starts in March were above expectations, and starts in January and February were revised up, combined.
Housing starts show continued strength in March, while single family permits indicate softness ahead --The continued strength in total housing permits and starts shown in this morning’s report for March was surprising; but the series with the most signal and least noise, single family permits, betrayed weakness. While typically permits, especially single family permits, lead the series, in the past year, however, there has been a unique divergence between permits and starts, as supply shortages resulted in a delay in actually building houses that had been approved. Housing authorized but not started increased to yet another 50+ year record last month, at 290,000: In 2021 permits soared then sank, while starts held much more steady, due to the above delay in the actual start of construction, as shown in the below graph of total housing starts (blue), total permits (gold), and single family permits (red, right scale) for the last 3 years: A longer term look shows the continued growth in actual starts, while also showing underlying weakness in single family permits: The three month average for starts is the highest since 2006. Note, by the way, that a similar thing happened several times in the past decade, notably in early 2014 and 2016, as potential buyers rush to close before rates climb even higher. Two months ago, I wrote that “after this surge, which may persist another month or so, I fully expect housing starts and permits to decline, and substantially, in accord with the big increase in mortgage rates to over 4%, about 1.3% above their 2021 lows.” In terms of starts, the surge has certainly persisted. But this look at the YoY% change in starts (blue, averaged quarterly to cut down on noise) and single family starts (red), vs. the YoY change in mortgage rates (inverted, *10 for scale), shows that, while starts have held up, still 5% higher YoY, single family permits, now down -4% YoY, have not: In the coming months, I still expect to see a substantial decline in permits. Ordinarily that would be a major negative long leading indicator. But actual construction starts are likely to continue to show strength until the near record backlog has been cleared. Since starts are the actual, hard economic activity, this indicates that housing is still going to make a positive to the economy looking out ahead 12 months.
March Housing Starts: Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1973: Estate Newsletter: March Housing Starts: Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1973 Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 811 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This is the highest level since November 2006. For single family, many of these homes are already sold (Census counts sales when contract is signed). The reason there are so many homes is probably due to construction delays. Since many of these are already sold, it is unlikely this is “overbuilding”, or that this will impact prices (although the buyers will be moving out of their current home or apartment once these homes are completed).. Currently there are 811 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since May 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure. Combined, there are 1.622 million units under construction. This is the most since February 1973, when a record 1.628 million units were under construction (mostly apartments in 1973 for the baby boom generation). There is much more in the post.
A “Housing Shortage” amid a Building Boom that Outruns Household Growth? - By Wolf Richter - Builders started construction on 147,400 privately owned housing units of all types in March, the biggest March since 2006. Housing starts are very seasonal and peak in the summer. This included:
- 99,100 single-family houses, which was below March 2021 (102,800 houses), but both were the biggest March housing starts since 2007.
- 46,700 units in buildings with 5+ units, such as rental apartments and condos. This was the biggest month – any month, not just March – since 1986, as the boom in multifamily building construction continues, unperturbed by rumors of some kind of urban exodus.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 77 in April, "Housing Market at Inflection Point" The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 77, down from 79 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Housing Market at Inflection Point as Builder Confidence Continues to Fall: Rapidly rising interest rates combined with ongoing home price increases and higher construction costs continue to take a toll on builder confidence and housing affordability. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes moved two points lower to 77 in April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the fourth straight month that builder sentiment has declined. “Despite low existing inventory, builders report sales traffic and current sales conditions have declined to their lowest points since last summer as a sharp jump in mortgage rates and persistent supply chain disruptions continue to unsettle the housing market,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “Policymakers must take proactive steps to fix supply chain issues that will reduce the cost of development, stem the rise in home prices and allow builders to increase production.” “The housing market faces an inflection point as an unexpectedly quick rise in interest rates, rising home prices and escalating material costs have significantly decreased housing affordability conditions, particularly in the crucial entry-level market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.... The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 85 and the component charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a six-point decline to 60. The gauge measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 73 following a 10-point drop in March. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast posted a one-point gain to 72 while the Midwest dropped three points to 69, the South fell two points to 82 and the West edged one-point lower to 89. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was at the consensus forecast, and still a solid reading.
“The spike in firm billings in March may reflect a desire to beat the continued interest rate hikes expected in the coming months,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “However, since project backlogs at architecture firms have reached seven months, a new all-time high, it appears that firms are having a difficult time keeping up with this uptick in demand for design services.”...
• Regional averages: South (57.2); Midwest (56.2); West (54.0); Northeast (46.3)
• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (58.2); multi-family residential (57.2); commercial/industrial (55.3); institutional (50.5)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 58.0 in March, up from 51.3 in February. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index has been positive for fourteen consecutive months. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a pickup in CRE investment in 2022.
Welcome to America's new 'Zoomtowns,' where an invasion of remote workers with big-city paychecks is driving long-time locals into tent cities and homeless shelters -- There's a certain gloss associated with recent transplants in "Boz Angeles." The new nickname for Bozeman, Montana, is a wryly derisive nod to the cultural and economic changes spurred by new arrivals, and to their presumed origin. It's a gesture to the high-end coffee shops festooned with cowboy decorthat are slowly encroaching on, say, affordable ranchland for real, living cows to graze on. It seems that at least some residents are in on the joke — and attuned to the tensions that lie beneath the surface. As one user put it on the Bozeman subreddit: "I wanted a place that I could move to and make the locals flip out of their minds in anger."Bozeman is a "Zoomtown," one of a handful of previously overlooked crannies in the South and the Mountain West that have swelled with an influx of remote-working outsiders. Similar to the boomtowns that popped up in the American West during the mineral-extraction rushes of the 19th and 20th centuries — and precipitated the genocide and displacement of Indigenous populations — longtime locals are feeling the squeeze from the stream of present-day Lewises and Clarks."Not only are locals being kept out of homebuying, but it's accelerating displacement from these communities," said Anthony Martin, the founder and CEO of Choice Mutual, an insurance brokerage in Reno, Nevada. "This means they're either leaving the city altogether in pursuit of more affordable housing, renting longer than planned, or are kicked out and become homeless." In Bozeman, a nonprofit that runs an emergency shelter for unhoused families said last June that it had logged a 238% increase in the number of families it assisted since summer 2020. Bozeman's median household income from 2016 to 2020 was $59,695, about 8% below the national figure. Yet local realtors reported that the median sale price of a single-family home in and around Bozeman was $896,000 as of February 2022 — an astonishing 55% higher than the US median single-family home sale price that month and a 49% increase over the same month last year.
April Vehicle Sales Forecast: Increase to 14.5 million SAAR --From WardsAuto: April, Second-Quarter U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Continue Sequential Growth (pay content). Brief excerpt: "Bottom line is U.S. sales remain weak, and below potential, but are trending up from the depths they fell to in the second half of last year due to a dearth in supply. Although geopolitics, economic headwinds and ongoing supply-chain issues undeniably are creating huge risks to the outlook, sales still are expected to gradually rise through the end of the year."This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for April (Red).The Wards forecast of 14.5 million SAAR, would be up about 9% from last month, and down 21% from a year ago (sales were solid in April 2021, as sales recovered from the depths of the pandemic, and weren't yet impactedby supply chain issues).
Gasoline Price Shock Triggered Demand Destruction Yet? And Where Will Gasoline Prices Go from Here? By Wolf Richter -Following the dizzying spike in gasoline prices, the question arises when demand destruction will set in, where people start driving less, start taking it easier to conserve gas when they do drive, or start prioritizing the most economical vehicle in their garage. If enough people do it, demand begins to decline, and gas stations have to compete for dwindling business. Demand destruction is what would cause the price to come down again. Are we there yet?The Energy Department’s EIA measures consumption of gasoline in terms of barrels supplied to the market by refiners, blenders, etc., and not by retail sales at gas stations. The volume of gasoline supplied has fallen for the third week in a row. This is unusual this time of the year, when gasoline consumption normally rises through the summer.Note how the past 11 months (red line) tracked the pre-Covid period three years earlier very closely (gray line) until they began to diverge sharply, not just in March, but already in mid-January, and have been solidly below the 2019 level ever since.Gasoline prices started shooting higher from collapsed levels in April 2020. By May 2021, the average price of gasoline, all grades combined, breached $3.00 a gallon, a multi-year high, and kept going. In November 2021, it hit $3.40 a gallon and took a break. Then in early February, it started spiking higher and in historic leaps hit $4.32 on March 14. But since mid-March, the price has ticked down. Now at $4.09, it remains nosebleed high but is a little lower than it was:Gas stations don’t lower prices out of the goodness of their heart. They lower prices because sales are getting hit, and price competition has set in among gas stations in an effort to maintain sales volume. And gas stations could lower their selling price without taking a hit to their profit margins as the costs of their product also declined.Demand destruction that hits gasoline would then be passed through to crude oil demand. But crude oil has far broader uses than just gasoline, including the booming petrochemical industry. And a small decline in demand for gasoline in the US isn’t going to shake up the global crude oil markets all that much.
Jobless claims: more 50+ year lows --Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 to 184,000, another 50+ year low. The 4 week average rose 4,500 to 177,250, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set two weeks ago. Continuing claims declined -58,000 this week to 1,417,000, a new 50 year low (but still well above their 1968 all-time low of 988,000):Nobody - still - is getting laid off. We’re still about 1.6 million shy of “full employment,” by my calculation. Further, the game of “musical chairs” whereby workers can always find higher wages somewhere is still very much happening. The next important marker is going to be “job openings” in the March JOLTS report which will be released next week. That’s because this situation is going to go on until enough employers decide that they simply can’t afford the higher wages demanded, or because increased prices have cooled off demand enough that they can get by without hiring more workers.
BLS: 12 States Set New Record Series Low Unemployment rates in March --On Friday, from the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in March in 37 states and stable in 13 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. All 50 states and the District had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier. ... Nebraska and Utah had the lowest jobless rates in March, 2.0 percent each. The next lowest rates were in Indiana, 2.2 percent, and Montana, 2.3 percent. The rates in these four states set new series lows, as did the rates in the following eight states (all state series begin in 1976): Alaska (5.0 percent), Arizona (3.3 percent), Georgia (3.1 percent), Idaho (2.7 percent), Mississippi (4.2 percent), Tennessee (3.2 percent), West Virginia (3.7 percent), and Wisconsin (2.8 percent). The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 6.0 percent, followed by New Mexico, 5.3 percent. . This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. Twelve states set new series record low unemployment rates in March, and currently 17 states are at series record low unemployment rates.
‘The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’ Cancels Tests Positive For Covid – The Late Show has been hit by Covid.CBS has canceled this evening’s show after host Stephen Colbert tested positive for the virus.The comedian noted that he’s “basically feeling fine” and is grateful to have been vaxxed and boosted.Ozark stars Jason Bateman and Laura Linney were set to be the guests on tonight’s show along with Veep star Matt Walsh.Instead, CBS will air a repeat featuring Josh Brolin and a performance by The Who.The show was set to be on hiatus next week so it means that the next original episode is set to be May 2.
Disney World: Face masks optional for all areas of resort (AP) — Walt Disney World has lifted the last of its mask requirements, meaning face coverings will be optional for visitors at all locations on the central Florida Disney property. The rule change was posted Tuesday on Disney’s website. Masks are still recommended, though not required, for guests who are not fully vaccinated in indoor locations and enclosed transportation. In February, the park made face coverings optional for fully vaccinated visitors in all indoor and outdoor locations, with the exception of enclosed transportation, such as the resort’s monorail, buses and the resort’s sky gondola. The new rule change removes the transportation exception, as well as the requirement to be vaccinated.
We have a murder problem in America — especially in red states -For the last two years, the nation has been awash in news accounts about soaring violent crime and murder in cities and states run by Democrats. That narrative is ubiquitous, particularly in conservative media, where Democratic mayors are routinely called out and excoriated for turning a blind eye to crime. That story is half right and half — to be charitable — lazy and wrong.Let’s dispatch with the part that is correct. We have a murder problem in America, withhomicides up sharply in recent years reversing long-term trends. In addition, many cities with Democratic mayors and governors have experienced dramatic murder spikes. Now, for the rest of the story. In a report Third Way recently released, we found that murder was much more prevalent in red states than blue states. That’s right. In 2020, homicide rates were a stunning 40 percent higher in the 25 states that former President Donald Trump won compared to the 25 won by current President Joe Biden. Of the 10 states with the highest 2020 per capita murder rates in America, eight of them not only voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, they voted Republican in every presidential election this century.Mississippi — a state that neither conjures up weak on crime images nor Democratic officeholders — topped the charts with a 2020 murder rate twice that of blue Illinois, thrice that of bluer California, and four times that of bluest New York. The red states of Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama and Missouri rounded out the top five and each had murder rates at least six times Massachusetts, four times New Jersey and just shy of twice that of Michigan. These blue states are home to the “crime-is-out-of-control” cities you read about daily — Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, Boston, Newark and Detroit. They generate the headlines, the outrage and the political backlash.Yet, media coverage is essentially mum about Lexington, Kentucky, which has set back-to-back murder records, has a homicide rate twice that of New York City and has a Republican mayor. Tulsa and Oklahoma City have Republican mayors, a Republican governor and murder rates that dwarf that of Los Angeles. Jacksonville was the murder capital of Florida in 2020 with its Republican mayor, governor and a stratospheric homicide rate that if it were matched in New York City would’ve added more than 1,000 murders that year. And to top it off, the homicide rate in Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) San Francisco was half that of House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) Bakersfield, the largest city in Kern County and one with a Republican mayor — with overwhelming Trump support and not a whiff of flirtation with defund the police movements. In fact, the murder capital of California for six years running is sleepy Kern County, 130 miles from Los Angeles and 306 miles from San Francisco, the two California locales most often associated with the crime-is-out-of-control national headlines that have dominated U.S. crime and political coverage.
New York City parent victimized by Child Services denounces government after daughters contract COVID-19 at school - New York City is seeing a new wave of coronavirus that includes the emergence of the BA.2 variant of Omicron. Earlier this winter, in the aftermath of the wave of mass infection of New Yorkers by the virus, New York City and the state altered the way in which they track COVID-19 infections in accordance with the practices of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The federal agency switched from direct reporting of community transmission to tying risk level to other factors, including hospitalization data. The outcome was that that the threshold for alert was significantly raised everywhere. In the city, as a consequence, little data is available to track the spread of the disease and caseloads are almost certainly gross underestimates. The widespread use of home testing kits—broadly encouraged by the state and city governments, as opposed to PCR testing—has also undermined the public’s ability to accurately ascertain the true level of transmission in the area, since home tests are less reliable than lab tests and since results go largely unreported to any data collection agency. Additionally, the New York City Test and Trace Corps, an agency created in 2020 in the initial phases of the pandemic, well known for its inefficiency to begin with, officially shuttered its doors this month, further impacting the centralized tally of infection. At least one child is reported to have died recently from the disease. The city has been the center of a relentless campaign to numb the population to the danger of the virus in order to remove all mitigation measures which negatively impact big businesses. After indoor masking mandates were abolished in early March, including in schools, Democratic Mayor Eric Adams declared that “[t]he best thing we can do to deal with COVID is get back to work … Let’s get our city up and operating.” Mary, a parent of four who lives in Brooklyn, spoke with the World Socialist Web Site after two of her daughters came home from school ill this week with COVID-like symptoms. In October of last year, Mary had been targeted in a political effort by the administration of former mayor Bill de Blasio to crack down on parents who resisted sending their children back to school due to COVID safety concerns. The Administration of Children’s Services (ACS) opened a child neglect case on Mary, which threatened to establish the legal basis through which she could have lost custody over her children. In January, Mary was compelled to make the decision to send her children back to school in the face of the threat posed by ACS. Mary has been a consistent opponent of the ending of remote learning in New York City schools, as well as the slashing of mitigation measures. She also has been an outspoken supporter of paid lockdowns for the working class in order to curb infection and save lives. During the Omicron surge this winter, she praised the courageous student walkouts and protests all over the city over COVID-19 safety in school buildings. “On Sunday my twins started feeling ill. This week, they took take-home [COVID-19] tests, and they both came out positive. Since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, my family has been extremely cautious. When the mask mandates ended, I told my kids that they had to keep their masks on in school. We don’t even go out to the grocery store.” “I’m totally outraged about this. Only a few months ago, the government was telling me that I was mistreating my kids because I wanted to keep them home safe from a potentially deadly disease that they were doing nothing to contain. Now my children are sick with the very thing that I was trying to protect them from all along. “By Wednesday night, my other child started showing symptoms as well, and my husband also started to feel sick. We’ve been isolating in separate rooms of our apartment. I’ve been stuck in the kitchen taking care of them by myself.
As “invisible” pandemic spreads in New York City, another child dies of COVID-19 - Thirty-six children ages 0-17 have now died of COVID-19 in New York City since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, according to data updated by the city last week. Seven of these children have died in 2022 and one in the last week. The latest child death was not worth mentioning by the city’s billionaire-friendly Democratic mayor, Eric Adams, or by the major newspapers and media outlets. No warning was issued that children remain vulnerable to this disease. And no pledges were made to protect them and the rest of the population, much less active measures taken by a single politician in this Democratic Party-dominated state and city to stop a new wave of COVID-19 from spreading throughout the city. Rather, headlines have focused on Adams’ law-and-order campaign, especially the brutal clearing of homeless encampments by the police and the fallout from the subway shooting on April 12 by a mentally unstable man, which injured almost 30 people but killed no one. For a city that has lost over 40,000 people to COVID in the last two years, there has been a remarkable lack of official notice or media discussion of the fact that over the last two weeks, according to data collected by the New York Times, there has been a 48 percent increase in the daily average of new COVID cases and a 25 percent increase in daily deaths from the disease. Eleven people in the city died of COVID-19 on April 18. While the official test positivity rate as measured by the city is at 4.76 percent, this figure is deceptive. Many New Yorkers now use home tests which have been distributed en masse by the city. Not only do these rapid tests often give results less reliable than PCR tests, but the results are also seldom reported to any city or state authority. Nevertheless, some areas of Manhattan such as the Financial District and Lincoln Square are now registering a 15 percent positivity rate. This follows the same pattern as that of the Omicron surge in December, with wealthier areas of Manhattan peaking first. Over 80 percent of cases that are sequenced are from the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron, which is even more contagious than the original variant. The “mild” designation is almost certainly an understatement. In the four months since the peak of the Omicron surge, Adams and the state’s Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, have overseen the dismantling of almost all COVID mitigation measures. Most notoriously, in March Adams rescinded the masking mandate for children over 5 years in schools as well as the indoor vaccination mandate.New York City Health + Hospitals folded up its contact tracing program, which was inadequate to begin with, but presumably provided some information about the spread of the disease.
At the Ready: Texas high schoolers taught “how to handcuff, how to lift fingerprints … how to do verbal commands and to use force” - More than 900 high schools in Texas offer paramilitary law enforcement classes. Adolescents between 14 and 18 take part in programs that train them in police repression. This ominous reality is documented in At the Ready by Texas-based director and cinematographer, Maisie Crow. Screened at the Sundance film festival this year, the film was shot in 2018 and 2019 at Horizon High School in El Paso, Texas, home to one of the region’s largest law enforcement education programs. In this public institution, students are groomed to become police officers and border patrol agents for the notoriously brutal BORTAC unit. El Paso is the biggest city on the US-Mexico border, with a large immigrant and Mexican-American population. As Crow’s film points out, law enforcement is one of the few career paths in El Paso that offers wages comparable to the national average. Salaries start at around $40,000 a year for jobs often not requiring a college degree. At the Ready opens as a column of innocuous yellow school buses rolls by a group of teens sporting military gear and lining up in formation. An authoritative voice shouts: “Here’s the schedule: active shooter at 12; hostage negotiations at 1:30; drug raid at 2:30.” Riot helmets and war fatigues make up the awkwardly fitting attire. The atmosphere is meant to be realistically intimidating. In the classroom, one of the instructors, a former cop, explains that his charges “will learn about basics: how to handcuff; how to lift fingerprints; how to do traffic stops; how to do verbal commands and to use force and it’s going to be paramilitary style.” A supporter of fascistic Texas Senator Ted Cruz, this “educator” repeatedly uses the phrase “Light ‘em up!” to describe how the students, with their plastic guns drawn, should expect to confront a suspect. Recruitment into a “criminal justice club” begins with a slick video advertisement making false claims about the program’s supposedly humanitarian purpose. A pro-police Blue Lives Matter flag hangs on the club’s wall and also appears on the students’ uniform vests.
Maryland school district signs backroom agreement to bring police back into public schools after community referendum removed them - Officials in Montgomery County, Maryland, have recently proposed a program to reintroduce armed police officers in schools after students and the community demanded their removal during the eruption of international protests following the police murder of George Floyd in 2020. Many Montgomery County students joined protests against police brutality and racism with a particular focus was on local arrest rates in county schools, which disproportionately occur in schools in working class neighborhoods. Students demanded the removal of armed police officers, euphemistically named Student Resource Officers (SRO), from Montgomery County Public Schools. Democratic County Executive Marc Elrich responded by rescinding funding for the SRO program in the fall of 2021 when students returned to in-person classes. Elrich implemented what was called a “Community Engagement Officer” program in which police officers patrolled certain areas around schools and only responded to incidents if urgently needed. This program was an attempt at complying with Maryland law requiring that all schools have “adequate law enforcement coverage,” while assuaging student and community concerns about having police in school buildings. Montgomery County, which includes the northern suburbs of Washington D.C., is one of the 20 richest counties in the United States by median income. The county is home not only to the National Institutes of Health and Walter Reed Medical Center but also several other federal agencies and corporate headquarters of defense contractors like Lockheed Martin. The county government is firmly in the control of the Democratic Party, with six of seven county executives having been Democrats since the creation of the office in 1970 and with a county council currently composed entirely of Democrats. The Washington Post reported the existence of a privately drafted agreement between the county school system and the Montgomery County Police Department to bring the armed officers back inside school buildings. Based on a review of the agreement, which has not been made public, the Post said the deal could be signed this week.
Message From South Administration - Dear Grosse Pointe South Families, Students are learning about McCarthyism in U.S. history class this week. Today, they were provided with a questionnaire which looked like an official document from South Administration. A student took a photo of this questionnaire and as a result it was shared on social media without any context. It is now spreading quickly and causing unnecessary confusion. The document and questions were intentionally designed as a simulation of McCarthyism and to make students question the appropriateness of the information being requested. In fact, within a minute, the teacher explained the purpose of the exercise was not to collect this information, but to demonstrate how private citizens’ rights and privacy were invaded during McCarthyism in the 1950s. The document which contained the questions was collected and destroyed. The teachers designed this exercise several years ago. This is the first time we have experienced an issue with it. While we apologize for any misunderstanding or apprehension it may have caused, we support our teachers’ ability to create lessons that resonate with our students and have a lasting impact. There was no harm done with this exercise and certainly none intended. In the future, if you should see something that doesn’t seem right to you, please reach out directly to your child’s teacher or South administration before sharing it on social media, where unfortunately it only causes misunderstanding and disruption to our teaching and learning environment. Our goal, as always, is to partner with you to support our students and staff. - Sincerely, South Administration
10 notable books that are coming under attack -Efforts to remove books from libraries or limit their availability to teenagers and younger children have stepped up amid culture wars on race, gender and sexuality. Fights over critical race theory, transgender rights and other issues have public libraries on the front lines, sparking efforts to remove books from wide consumption. The American Library Association (ALA) reported a record number of “challenged” books in 2021, a designation it gives to books that have been subject to attempted removals or being restricted based upon the objections of a person or group. Here are 10 of the books that have repeatedly been the focus of attacks. US races clock to ship weapons to Ukraine | The Hill
Anger builds among Minneapolis educators, students over proposed budget cuts and rollback of COVID-19 safety measures - A little less than a month after the Minneapolis Federation of Teachers (MFT) union shut down a 20-day strike by 5,000 Minneapolis educators, anger is simmering among teachers, students and their families over the disastrous and worsening conditions in the schools. On Tuesday, students at a number of high schools across the city walked out in protest over the school board’s lengthening of the school day following the strike, as well as the poverty conditions teachers and students are experiencing in Minneapolis Public Schools (MPS). A student involved in organizing the protests, Zaraia Fabunmi, told BridgemakersMN, “Seeing the extra effort that [my teachers] have put in to make me feel that they care about me as a student … I want to be able to give back. I want my teachers to have health care; I want them to have livable wages. … I want them to have all of the things they need.” The latest signs of opposition among students take place at the same time as the city’s Democratic Party establishment is undertaking further attacks on public education and educators’ jobs and working conditions. On Wednesday, Minneapolis Public Schools officials floated devastating cuts to the school system’s budget, as high as $27.1 million for the 2022-2023 school year. In addition to the cuts being considered for 2022-2023, the school board is counting on saving $24 million by not filling open positions this year, exacerbating the staffing crisis in the schools. The school board is seeking to shift blame for the cuts onto teachers and school support staff, claiming that the austerity contract negotiated with the MFT last month makes the budget reductions necessary. “To meet these contractual agreements and their associated costs, we have to find the money somewhere,” said Ibrahima Diop, MPS’ senior financial officer. It is not clear how many layoffs the cuts may entail, but the district had previously said 180 positions a year may be slashed.
Alabama budget throws crumbs to teachers - Last week, the Alabama legislature approved a record $8.26 billion education budget with the largest teacher pay raises since the mid-1980s. The raises are an attempt to staunch the collapse of public education in the state and slow the mass exodus of chronically underpaid teachers. The New York Times, covering this and similar meager increases nationally, voiced the hope that the small pay bumps could “assuage teachers over labor concerns, with teachers having gone on strike in cities such as Sacramento and Minneapolis .” The Democratic Party mouthpiece expressed the ruling elite’s deep anxiety over the growing movement of workers against poverty pay levels and social inequality being exacerbated by the pandemic and the US proxy war in the Ukraine. Alabama’s Education Trust Fund (ETF) budget includes an initial increase for fiscal year 2023 ranging from 4 percent for those with fewer than 9 years of experience, up to 21 percent for those with 35 years’ experience. Thereafter, there will be yearly step increases of 1 percent for all teachers, stopping after 35 years of teaching. Republican Governor Kay Ivey, who faces multiple opponents in the primary election this May, is expected to sign the bill into law shortly. The response on social media was appropriately angry. “To truly impact [retention] teachers need 25-30% pay raises. We have been underpaid for decades,” said one. Another added, “too little, too late.” Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, commenting on the recently announced pay increases around the country told the New York Times, “Let me just say this: It’s never too late.” She continued, “People don’t go into teaching to become rich, but they should be able to raise their kids on a decent salary.” Despite the disclaimer, Weingarten, netting more than $500,000 annually, apparently chose the first reason. For its part, the Alabama Education Association likewise gushed its approval of measures. “The No. 1 sentiment has been: It’s about time, and it’s very much appreciated,” said Amy Marlowe, the association’s executive director. Inadvertently pointing to the union’s failure to fight for decent wages over decades, she noted it is the first time teachers in Alabama have seen a pay raise of this scale since 1983. Over the last two decades, the legislature has approved cost-of-living raises, ranging from 2 to 7 percent, only eight times. The result has been that Alabama teachers subsist on poverty wages. The state is rated 35th out of 50 states in salaries, with teachers receiving $10,000 a year less than their colleagues in other states on average. The current legislation utterly fails to make up for these decades of stagnating wages.
Minneapolis Teacher Strike Brought Unity, Victory and a Reminder of the Threats Facing Public Education in the U.S. - On March 8, the thousands of teachers and education support professionals (ESPs) who make up the Minneapolis Federation of Teachers (MFT) walked off the job for the first time since 1970 after contract negotiations with the Minneapolis Public Schools failed. Bread-and-butter union issues, including class size capsand stagnant pay, were at the heart of the dispute, along with debates over how best to recruit and retain teachers of color in Minneapolis.The strike lasted for nearly three weeks. On March 25, a tentative agreement was reached between the union and the school district, and students and teachers were both back in the classroom by March 29.This labor dispute puts the Minneapolis Federation of Teachers squarely in line with theircounterparts in many other cities and states. In 2022 alone, teachers in districts that stretch fromSacramento to the Chicago area have gone on strike to protest ongoing contract stalemates and onerous working conditions.National Education Association President Becky Pringle noted recently that school districts have the requisite resources to address the issues being raised through these teachers strikes, but are often unwilling to spend it to meet these pertinent demands. In an interview with Vox, Pringle questioned what came first: a purposeful underfunding of schools or the districts’ claims that the funds they have cannot be utilized to provide children with the support they need in classrooms. She told Vox that a lack of funding “is not an excuse that we [teachers] are willing to tolerate.”In Minnesota, this dynamic is evident. Beginning in the early 2000s, state tax revenue for public education has shrunk while the demands on teachers, students, and school districts have dramatically increased—especially in the area of unfunded mandates for special education and English language services.For the Minneapolis Public Schools, this means the district must pull millions of dollars out of its general education fund in order to cover the cost of educating all students in accordance with the law.The process of drawing from one pot of money to cover required but unfunded services is known as a cross-subsidy, and it is a situation made worse by the fact that public school districts, like Minneapolis’, must also pay for the special education services that local charter schools and open enrollment programs provide. In recent years, that dollar amount has risen above $22 million.Although education funding quagmires such as this are not new, the lack of adequate resources is an especially bitter pill to swallow in Minneapolis lately, as Minnesota lawmakers are currently wrestling with how to spend an unexpectedly large budget surplus that now exceeds $9 billion.So far, there has been no indication that state legislators will use that money to fully fund public education, either in Minneapolis or across the state. This doesn’t mean the Minneapolis Public Schools should be left off the hook.Greta Callahan is president of the teacher chapter of the Minneapolis Federation of Teachers and has repeatedly argued, for example, that school district officials are sitting on millions in federal COVID-19 relief funds that should instead be spent on the immediate needs of teachers, support staffers, and students. For Minneapolis high school seniors Dom Newell and Emi Gaçaj, the overall lack of investment in Minneapolis’ public schools has galvanized their burgeoning political activism and allowed them to turn lessons learned in the classroom into action on behalf of their teachers and fellow students. “We are studying this in school” while also participating outside of school in nonviolent protests, Gaçaj noted. Newell also mentioned that, as a Black student, he’s grown up hearing about the Civil Rights era and the actions activists engaged in then to bring about monumental change.
University of Illinois at Chicago grad student workers strike against poverty wages -- On Monday, 1,500 graduate student workers at the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) who are members of the Graduate Employees Organization (GEO) union are set to go on strike to demand a significant increase in wages to protect themselves against raging inflation in the nation’s third most populous city. The GEO and UIC are scheduled to resume bargaining on April 19. The current contract expired August 15, 2021, and bargaining began in April of 2021. After nearly a year of negotiations and three interventions with federal mediators, UIC GEO announced April 1 that 97 percent of members authorized a strike. UIC is offering insulting wage increases over the next three years, including 8 percent in the first year and 2 percent in each of the following two years of the contract. With an inflation rate of 8.5 percent, the university’s “offer” amounts to a demand for a significant cut in real wages for grad students who make a pitiful $20,615 over two semesters. GEO officials say the university will not increase its salary offer, which is $3,000 below what the GEO has asked for and “less than what grad workers at other Chicago schools make.” In addition, UIC refuses to decrease the amount of student fees that GEO members pay. These student fees are ostensibly to pay for services separate from tuition. All UIC students pay $1,700 in fees per semester, and GEO members are still required by the university to pay about 40 percent of the normal rate per semester. International students must pay an additional sum of $130 per semester, and only 50 percent of this fee is waived for international students in the GEO. UIC also has refused to reduce the health care premiums that workers pay every semester for enrollment in the UIC Campus Care program. This costs grad workers $260 per semester. The GEO has proposed a 15 percent increase in the first year of the contract and 3 percent in each of the following two years. This is also woefully inadequate for workers in a city where the prices for housing, fuel and food are among the highest in the country. Instead of demanding the elimination of all student fees for its members, GEO has called for grad student workers to pay a flat rate of $100 in fees per semester. It is also proposing members using the UIC Campus Care health program pay $50 per semester instead of fighting for fully funded health care. GEO has called for the elimination of additional fees for international students who make up around half of graduate workforce at UIC and are largely barred from holding second jobs due to visa restrictions. The GEO’s proposal is also not enough to lift graduate workers at UIC out of poverty. The current pay of $20,615 for 20 hours of work a week for two semesters is less than half the household income of $51,360 needed to afford a one-bedroom apartment in the city (with an average monthly cost of $2,088), according to the website Apartment List.
“You can’t live on this wage”: Striking UIC graduate student workers in Chicago speak from the picket line -- Fifteen hundred graduate students at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) are entering their third day on strike Wednesday as contract negotiations continue between university administrators and the Graduate Educators Organization (GEO), an affiliate of the American Federation of Teachers union (AFT). The strike began on Monday after graduate students voted by an overwhelming 97 percent on April 1 in favor of a walkout. UIC’s administration has made clear that they intend to maintain poverty-level pay for grad student workers, who teach large numbers of classes and perform many essential functions for the university. Grad workers currently make as little as $20,615, far below what is needed to live in Chicago, where the cost of living is rapidly increasing. The university, however, is offering an insulting 12 percent pay raise over three years. With inflation running at 8.5 percent annually, this could amount to a cut in real income of 13 percent or more over the life of the contract. The GEO has reported that UIC’s lead negotiator made the provocative statement at a recent bargaining situation, “I would never promise you that the university would pay you enough to pay for all your financial needs.” UIC’s administration—and behind it, the Democratic Party, which has long dominated Chicago politics—is declaring on behalf of the financial aristocracy that there will be no let-up in the extreme conditions of exploitation of university workers, despite the enormous sums reaped by the ruling class during the pandemic. The claim that there is no money to pay grad workers a living wage, let alone provide free tuition and high-quality education to all students, is an utter fraud. In Illinois alone, the 10 richest individuals—including billionaire Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker—have seen their wealth surge $32.7 billion since the start of the pandemic, an increase of 80 percent in two years. The wealthiest, Citadel hedge fund owner Ken Griffin, saw his fortune more than double, from $12.1 billion to $27.2 billion. Grad workers are determined to win a livable wage, university-paid health care coverage for their family members, and a reduction in onerous student fees, which can eat up entire paychecks.
NAACP ‘hopeful’ Biden will cancel student loan debt The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) said it’s increasingly optimistic that the Biden administration will move to cancel student loan debt, the same the day the federal government said thousands of borrowers could see their loans forgiven. “We’re more hopeful than we’ve ever been that President Biden will cancel student loan debt. It appears increasingly likely,” the organization said in a statement on Tuesday. “The shift in tone from the White House is encouraging, but we’ll continue to apply pressure until it happens.” The NAACP statement came the same day the Department of Education announced that some 40,000 borrowers could see their loans forgiven in an initiative to address continuing issues and failures in federal student loan programs. The Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program makes full-time public service workers eligible for loan forgiveness. “The NAACP has been pushing for student debt cancelation from day one, in the streets, and in the halls of power — including countless meetings with the White House and Secretary of Education — and we’ll continue to lead this fight until it is canceled,” the statement concluded. The Biden administration announced earlier this month another extension of the moratorium for federal student loan payments and interest growth, with August 31 being the latest deadline for the moratorium. The moratorium, enacted by former President Trump during the COVID-19 pandemic, has been renewed five times since.
Student debt cancelation vs. postponement -In his poem, Robert Frost only gave us two roads to choose from: the road not taken, and the road less traveled by. When applied to national student debt policy Frost’s road not taken clearly represents comprehensive debt cancellation. Instead, policymakers, like Frost, have stumbled down the road less travelled by, for over two years opting for postponement again and again and forgiving all the interest in their haste.Whether you favor debt cancellation or not it at least represents a policy, one that if enacted, would have amounts, procedures, limits and enforcement. Its terms would be transparent to both creditors (taxpayers) and debtors (students). In all likelihood, it would have authority from legislative approval. Of course, those picking this road would encounter some very large potholes, including budgetary costs. Interest alone, if forgone until the end of the year, will amount to $170 billion. It would also separate winners from losers by placing on one side of the road those college students benefiting from canceled debt, and on the other, those having paid their debt in full and those never having had any debt. But all would not be negative. Policymakers would find rich land along the road as the economy would grow without the drag from almost $2 trillion in student loans on consumption, housing, marriage, child-rearing and retirement. It would encourage the spirits of freed debtors as shown by their increased purchases of houses and other goods over the past two years. The government never really chose the path of postponement, rather the prospect of wide-spread defaults, threatening all of college finance, chose it for them. Postponing debt is not a policy but the absence of a policy. When you have five postponements in a row everyone is betting on the sixth. This provides no structure and nothing to enforce. Implicitly it asks debtors to save to be ready for when the postponement period ends. But how many do that? Their debt payments have been absorbed by the costs of daily living. In truth, it is setting them up for failure. This makes either cancelation or wide-spread default a self-fulfilling prophesy. In his poem, Frost had foreseen the outcome of continuous postponement. “Yet knowing how way leads on to way, I doubted if I should ever come back,” Frost wrote. How will the government come back? How will college finance come back?
Alabama reaches $276M settlement in opioid cases - Alabama reached a $276 million settlement agreement with Johnson & Johnson, McKesson and Endo Pharmaceutical for their role in the opioid epidemic, the state’s attorney general announced on Tuesday. Under the agreement, Johnson & Johnson will pay $70.3 million to the state this year, while McKesson will pay out $141 million over nine years. Endo will pay $25 million this year. A settlement agreement does not mean an admission of guilt. Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall said the settlement agreement gives Alabama a boost of funds to support communities affected by the epidemic. “Having encountered the utter darkness of the opioid crisis at my own doorstep, this is one of my most meaningful accomplishments as your Attorney General,” he said in a statement. The news comes a day after West Virginia reached a $99 million settlement agreement with Johnson & Johnson. Both Alabama and West Virginia opted out of the historic $26 billion national settlement with Johnson & Johnson, AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health and McKesson, choosing to pursue lawsuits against the companies individually. Had Alabama joined the national settlement agreement, the state would have received $115.8 million from McKesson over 18 years instead of the $141 million over nine years. Alabama also would have received the same payment from Johnson & Johnson but over nine years.
Psilocybin, the active ingredient in ‘magic mushrooms,’ makes scientific gains – Research on the use of psychedelic drugs as potential treatment for psychiatric disorders has gained momentum in the U.S. in recent years, with compounds like psilocybin — the active ingredient in “magic mushrooms” — shifting from the fringes of medicine toward the mainstream. Limited studies out of institutions like Johns Hopkins University and others over the last decade have shown promise in using psilocybin in tandem with talk therapy to help longtime smokers quit smoking, ease anxiety in people with terminal cancer and reduce symptoms of major depression. Earlier this year, a follow-up study by Johns Hopkins Medicine researchers found two doses of the hallucinogenic compound coupled with psychotherapy resulted in large decreases in major depressive disorder symptoms for most of the study’s participants. In a testament to how powerful the mystical experience associated with the drug can be, Roland Griffiths, the professor in the Neuropsychopharmacology of Consciousness at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine who received approval in 2000 to carry out the first experiments on psilocybin since the 1960s, found in a survey of early study participants that more than half regarded it as one of the most meaningful experiences of their lives. But precisely how the hallucinogen may produce a positive outcome among those suffering from addiction, depression or post-traumatic stress disorder remains unclear. “That’s certainly the multi-million-dollar question of the day: how are these drugs working?” Frederick Barrett, Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, told Changing America. In a paper published late last year, Barrett proposed the drug’s antidepressant effects may be the result of changes in neuroplasticity. “One common feature of depression is something you can think of as cognitive or psychological inflexibility,” Barrett said. “You get stuck in a rut of rumination. You get stuck in negative self-attribution, negative self-thoughts, and this is a kind of characteristic of depression that helps people develop and maintain their depression,” he said. “It boils down to a reduced capacity to think creatively or to think openly, and to think differently about yourself and your condition, situation and behavior. If psilocybin can increase our cognitive flexibility, if it can increase our neural flexibility, we think that essentially it gives people back the capacity to think broadly about how they fit into the world and reassess or reappraise things that might happen to them.”
Coronavirus found in human feces up to 7 months after infection - COVID-19 is mainly known as a respiratory ailment, but a new study suggests the coronavirus can infect your intestinal tract for weeks and months after you've cleared the bug from your lungs.In the study about 1 out of 7 COVID patients continued to shed the virus' genetic remnants in their feces at least four months after their initial diagnosis, long after they've stopped shedding the virus from their respiratory tract, researchers found.This could explain why some COVID patients develop GI symptoms like abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea, said senior researcher Dr. Ami Bhatt, an associate professor of medicine and genetics at Stanford University."We found that people who had cleared their respiratory infection—meaning they were no longer testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in their respiratory tract—were continuing to shed SARS-CoV-2 RNA in their feces," Bhatt said. "And those people in particular had a high incidence of GI symptoms."A long-term infection of the gut also might contribute to long COVID symptoms in some people, Bhatt and her colleagues theorized. "Long COVID could be the consequence of ongoing immune reaction to SARS-CoV-2, but it also could be that we have people who have persistent infections that are hiding out in niches other than the respiratory tract, like the GI tract," Bhatt said.
Woman caught COVID-19 twice within 20 days — a potential record --A woman allegedly caught the novel coronavirus twice within 20 days, setting a potential record for quickest reinfection.: A 31-year-old health care worker tested positive for two different COVID-19 variants between the final days of December 2021 and the early part of January 2022, per The Guardian.
- She was reportedly infected with the delta variant in December.
- Her omicron variant infection came 20 days later.
- Her story was detailed in a Spanish research paper that was presented at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.
This case showed that the omicron variant can “evade the previous immunity acquired either from a natural infection with other variants or from vaccines,” study author Dr. Gemma Recio said at the congressional meeting, per BBC News.“In other words, people who have had Covid-19 cannot assume they are protected against reinfection, even if they have been fully vaccinated. “Nevertheless, both previous infection with other variants and vaccination do seem to partially protect against severe disease and hospitalization in those with Omicron,” added Dr. Recio, from the Institut Catala de Salut, Tarragona in Spain.
Omicron Was More Severe for Unvaccinated Children in 5-to-11 Age Group, Study Shows - Unvaccinated children from 5 to 11 years old were hospitalized with Covid at twice the rate of vaccinated children during the winter Omicron variant surge, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Tuesday.The study was the latest to demonstrate that vaccines help keep children out of the hospital with Covid, despite the shots losing some of their potency at stopping infections from the Omicron variant.But the C.D.C. report, based on data from hospitals serving about 10 percent of the U.S. population across 14 states, also offered some of the strongest evidence to date that racial disparities in childhood vaccination might be leaving Black children more exposed to severe illness from Covid.Black children in the 5-to-11 age group accounted for about a third of unvaccinated children in the study, the largest of any racial group, and made up roughly a third of overall Covid-related hospitalizations within the age group.Estimates from 2020 based on census data suggest that Black children made up about 14 percent of U.S. residents from 5 to 11 years old. But it is not clear whether the areas covered in the C.D.C. study are representative of the country’s population, making it difficult to precisely measure any disparities.“Increasing vaccination coverage among children, particularly among racial and ethnic minority groups disproportionately affected by Covid-19, is critical to preventing Covid-19-associated hospitalization and severe outcomes,” the C.D.C. study said.The agency has not reported nationwide data on the race or ethnicity of vaccinated children, making it difficult for researchers to examine gaps in protection. Seven states and Washington, D.C., report race data for vaccinated children from 5 to 11. Black children were inoculated at lower rates than white children in most, but not all, of those states, an analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation found this month. Asian children tended to have the highest vaccination rates, the analysis found, and Hispanic children were inoculated at rates lower than or similar to those of white children.
Study finds mental health issues may lead to higher risk for COVID-19 breakthrough cases --Individuals vaccinated against COVID-19 who were diagnosed with certain psychiatric disorders were more at risk for getting COVID-19, according to a new study published in JAMA Network Open. UC San Francisco researchers worked with investigators from the San Francisco VA Health Care System and looked at data from 263,697 patients who had completed their vaccine regimen and had at least one test for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, according to the published report. The researchers said in the study release that over half (51.4%) of the participants in the study were diagnosed with at least one psychiatric diagnosis within the last five years and nearly 15% had positive tests showing a breakthrough case of COVID-19. Overall, the researchers found participants with psychiatric disorders had a 3% increased risk for breakthrough COVID-19 infections in 2021 compared to those without a psychiatric history, according to the release.The investigators report that the risk was higher for those over 65 years old. According to the release, those in the 65+ age group who had substance abuse issues had a 24% higher risk for a breakthrough case and those with psychotic disorders had a 23% higher risk. The report found those with bipolar disorder were 16% more likely to get a breakthrough infection, while those with an adjustment disorder had a 14 % risk. The individuals with anxiety conditions had a 12% higher chance compared to those who did not have a psychiatric condition, the report said. The study also noted the younger cohort, (those individuals under 65 years old), with a psychiatric disorder had an increased risk of up to 11% of developing a breakthrough COVID-19 case, compared to those without a psychiatric history. In the younger group, the findings showed participants with a substance abuse disorder were 11% more likely to develop a breakthrough case, while participants with adjustment disorder had an increased risk of 9% compared to peers without a psychiatric diagnosis. TheNu study also found those under 65 with anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder had a 4% and 3% increased chance of getting COVID-19, respectively. The researchers said the increased risk of breakthrough cases in individuals with psychiatric disorders (3% to 16%) was comparable to the increased incidence of breakthrough infection that was seen in individuals with certain physical conditions (7% to 23%) such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and kidney disease, the study said.“Our findings indicate that individuals with psychiatric disorders may be a high-risk group for COVID-19 and that this group should be prioritized for booster vaccinations and other critical preventive efforts, including increased SARS-CoV-2 screening, public health campaigns, or COVID-19 discussions during clinical care,” the researchers stated in the published study.
XE and why we may want Omicron to mutate - XE— a new sister lineage of Omicron— has peppered the headlines this week. And while it’s important for scientists to track every change of the virus, I don’t think the public needs to be anxiety-ridden every time this virus changes. This is what viruses do to survive, and we should anticipate this. In fact, Omicron mutating may be goodnews for us. XE is not a new variant of concern. Instead it’s a recombinant or a combination of BA.2 and BA.1. As like what happened with “Deltacron,” XE was likely created when someone was infected with two different viruses at the same time. We are seeing more and more recombinations now because distinct viruses are circulating (Delta, BA.1, BA.2) at the same time. Because someone can be infected with two viruses at the same time, the two sublineages can enter a person’s cell at one time. Then, when the virus tries to replicate inside the cell (to further spread to other cells), the genetic material can be mixed up. This is different from a mutation from a single infection, as depicted from the figure below. XE has BA.2’s spike protein copied and pasted onto the 5' part of BA.1. We have documented BA.1 and BA.2 mixing in other ways, too, which has resulted in other sublineage names like XR, XN, XP, XQ, etc., etc. Virologist Tom Peacock made the fantastic figure below displaying the phenomenon. XE was first detected in England in mid-January and has caused more than 600 cases in England (which is <1% of cases). As of March 22, 763 XE cases had been identified in the greater U.K. It’s also been identified in India, China, and Thailand.Since March 25, XE has shown modest growth advantage over BA.2. Latest estimates from the U.K. are showing a 10% increase of transmissibility over BA.2 (and BA.2 has a 40% increased transmissibility over BA.1, or the original Omicron). This means XE is slightly more contagious than the other sublineages. The good news is that because the spike protein determines immune invasion, infection-induced defenses that people acquired against Omicron and/or our vaccinations should still work against this new recombinant.
Coronavirus dashboard for April 20: there’s a new subvariant in town - Let me start with the current overview. As of today, Nationally cases are now rising sharply, up to 41,500, an increase of 25% in the past week: Hospitalization are generally flat at slightly over 10,000, but new admissions have risen steadily, by 8% over the last 11 days: Deaths have continued to decline, to 452, a level lower than all times during the pandemic except for 7 weeks last June and July: But, conditions have changed. Up until this week, my paradigm has been that cases in the US would follow the pattern in Europe, where once the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron reached roughly 90% of all cases, typically 2.5-3.5 weeks after the onset of the BA.2 wave, they peaked and then declined more or less rapidly. Except . . . the Northeastern part of the US did not follow the pattern. Cases bottomed 5 weeks ago, starting in New York State, and have continued to rise ever since, and are now 2.6x the number they were at their trough: The reason why the Northeast has been different from Europe, with cases continuing to rise for over a month, was first reported by the New York State Department of Health five days ago, in a press release that stated in relevant part: “The New York State Department of Health today announced the emergence of two Omicron subvariants in New York State, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1.... The subvariants have been estimated to have a 23% – 27% growth advantage above the original BA.2 variant. Over the past few weeks, the Department has been investigating higher than average infection rates in Central New York.... State health officials have determined that these highly contagious new variants are likely contributing to the rising cases. For the month of March, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 rose to collectively comprise more than 70% prevalence in Central New York and more than 20% prevalence in the neighboring Finger Lakes region. Data for April indicate that levels in Central New York are now above 90%.” In other words, here was a new subvariant with a 25% advantage even over BA.2, and displaced it almost entirely - by more than 90%! - in the region where first reported within just a few weeks. The US had just become to BA.2.12.1 what South Africa was to the original Omicron, and Central NY was like South Africa’s Gauteng region, where BA.1 was first identified. Yesterday the CDC updated their variant tracker, and for the first time included BA.2.12.1 as a separate subvariant. Here is their chart of variant proportions nationwide: And here is the graph of the regional breakdowns: Per the report, as of last week BA.2 and it’s subvariants constituted 93.4% of all US cases. BA.2.12.1 already constitutes 19% of all US cases (up from 3.3% just 3 weeks ago, and on a trajectory equal to that of the original BA.2). At its current rate of growth, BA.2.12.1 will be over 90% of cases in the US in just 5 weeks. Regionally the BA.2 variants are 95% in the Northeast and over 90% along the West Coast. Further, BA.2.12.1 is already over half of all cases in NY and NJ:
Covid Whiplash: Now-Dominant BA.2 Variant Being Quickly Overtaken Across The U.S. By Yet Another Faster-Growing Omicron Offshoot, Says CDCJust as most Americans have caught wind of the BA.2 variant of Omicron — which overtook the original Omicron as the dominant strain in the U.S. less than a month ago — another possibly faster-growing version of Omicron is quickly making inroads. The new Omicron sublineage BA.2.12.1 now accounts for 19% of all new cases specifically sequenced for variants in the country, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. That means the strain — barely on the national radar two weeks ago — is now being identified in close to 1 in 5 newly-sequenced cases, up from 1.5% less than a month before on 3/19. Given that, Americans trying to keep up may be experiencing a form of variant whiplash.Last week, when Deadline first reportedon BA.2.12.1, the variant was tied to the parallel rise of another BA.2 sublineage, BA.2.12. Both are sublineages of the BA.2 variant, and thought to have a 23%–27% growth advantage over BA.2, according to the New York State Department of Public Health. BA.2 is thought to have an estimated 30% growth advantage over the original Omicron.New York officials announced last week, seemingly out of nowhere that “For the month of March, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 rose to collectively comprise more than 70% prevalence in Central New York and more than 20% prevalence in the neighboring Finger Lakes region. Data for April indicate that levels in Central New York are now above 90%.”Then: “State health officials have determined that these highly contagious new variants are likely contributing to the rising cases.”At the end of the first week of March, the 7-day average number of daily new cases in the state was well under 2,000. By April 13, it was over 5,000, according to the New York Times, with the total number of new positive cases that day, according to state data, at 6,546. Since then, while case numbers have risen and fallen with fluctuating daily test numbers, the 7-day average test positivity in New York has risen from 4.6% to 5.9%.BA.2.12 is said to be made up of North American and European lineages, while BA.2.12.2 is said to derive its lineage from the USA and Canada, with some speculating the first case was identified in Canada. That may explain why it has taken off more quickly in the Northeast.CDC data released this week indicate that, for the three-state region comprised of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, BA.2.12.2 already accounts for the majority of new cases (52%). It’s fellow subvariant, BA.2.12, has not kept pace. Its numbers are now being folded in with those cases attributed to BA.2. The two together are estimated to be causing 46% of new cases, down from about 85% in data released just one week ago on the region. In the southwestern region made up of California, Nevada and Arizona, the new CDC data indicates that BA.2.12.2 is responsible for about 9% of new cases.
Coronavirus levels are rising in New Orleans wastewater. Experts say it's ‘definitely concerning' -The level of coronavirus found in two New Orleans wastewater sites rose nearly 700% over the last two weeks, according to data reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While virus levels in Louisiana remain low, the recent data has infectious disease experts on alert after weeks of declining cases and loosening restrictions. “We’re in a little bit of a fog right now, but certainly wastewater suggests SARS-CoV-2 is definitely here and it does seem to be – at best we can tell – increasing,” said Susan Hassig, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Tulane University. The rise in wastewater levels comes amid other early signs of more infections. The state reported 604 cases over the last seven days compared to around 450 the week before, an increase of about 33%. More cases are likely going undetected with the use of at-home tests, which are not reported to public officials. In addition, hospitalizations increased by 12 patients last Friday, dropped slightly over the weekend and then increased again on Monday and Tuesday, for a total of 63 patients in hospitals in Louisiana. The rising levels of COVID nationwide and in Louisiana are driven in part by the BA.2 subvariant of omicron, estimated to be about 50% to 60% more infectious than the original omicron variant that fueled a surge this past winter. It makes up 84% of COVID cases in the southwest region and 43% of cases in Louisiana as of April 2. It’s too early to tell if the uptick will continue, but health experts are closely watching other states that are seeing increases in cases and hospitalizations. The five states with the highest 7-day case increases are in the Northeast, according to the CDC. New hospital admissions are also beginning to creep up in that region. Officials in Philadelphia recently reinstated a mask mandate, citing sharply rising infections. “Part of what we can do and probably should do is watch what happens in the Northeast, in terms of the timeline,” said Hassig. “They’ve been reasonable predictors, usually about 3 to 4 to 5 weeks ahead of us through most of these waves.” Wastewater in New Orleans — which reflects virus particles shed in saliva, urine and feces — has shown higher levels of coronavirus since the CDC started tracking it in mid-February. The increase was reflected in samples taken at the end of March and has been steadily increasing through April 9, the most recent data available.
Boston-area COVID wastewater data shows 'big increases,' city health officials urge people to wear masks - This far into the pandemic, it’s clear that the wastewater doesn’t lie — and unfortunately, the Boston-area COVID-19 wastewater data is continuing to shoot up.The local wastewater samples spiking 109% over the past two weeks, along with a major increase in reported virus cases, led city health officials on Thursday to urge people to take “extra precautions” and mask up indoors.The most recent update from the Boston-area wastewater tracker shows the highest virus sewage samples since late January when the original omicron variant was on the downturn.Now, the wastewater data in both the south and north of Boston regions are rising as the omicron BA.2 variant spreads. Also, the subvariant BA.2.12.1 is circulating. The sewage data is the earliest sign of future virus cases in the community.“We’re seeing some big increases right now,” said Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health.“We know hospitalizations will go up, but with each progressive surge or swell, we keep uncoupling cases from hospitalizations and deaths,” he added. “None of us know how high things will go this time, but I think we won’t come close to the peak of omicron.”The south of Boston’s COVID wastewater average has surged 116% in the past two weeks. The north of Boston’s average has gone up 92% during the same time period. The wastewater levels are still much lower than the omicron peak.A recent one-day measurement in the southern region was 1,238 copies per milliliter, which was the highest virus wastewater level since Jan. 31 when there were 1,388 copies. Wastewater levels are going up in Suffolk, Middlesex and Essex counties. Citing a 65% increase in reported COVID cases over the past two weeks, the Boston Public Health Commission on Thursday urged residents to get tested, stay home if not feeling well, keep up to date on their vaccinations, and renewed its recommendation that masks be worn indoors.
Massachusetts coronavirus breakthrough cases spike 156% last week, hospitalizations rise -- State health officials reported more than 10,000 coronavirus breakthrough cases last week, as COVID-19 infection counts continue climbing while fully vaccinated hospitalizations also rose. The count of 10,624 breakthrough infections last week was a 156% spike from the 4,154 fully vaccinated cases during the prior week. The once-surging omicron variant had been retreating during the last several weeks, but health experts are now warning of the omicron BA.2 “stealth” variant. The Boston-area COVID wastewater data has been rising. State health officials have been encouraging people to get a booster shot to get more protection from the variants. Overall, 482,750 fully vaxxed people have tested positive for the virus, according to new data from the state Department of Public Health on Tuesday. That’s 9% of the more than 5.3 million fully vaxxed people in Massachusetts. The 482,750 overall cases is an increase of 10,624 breakthrough infections from last week — or a daily average of 1,518 fully vaccinated people testing positive. Last Tuesday’s report showed a jump of 4,154 breakthrough cases, a daily rate of 593 fully vaxxed people testing positive. The week before that was a rise of 4,957 infections, a daily average of 708. The previous week was an increase of 3,892 breakthroughs, a daily total of 556. The preceding week’s count was 2,732 cases, a daily tally of 390.
New omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 on the rise in New England, COVID strain appears to be 'even more transmissible' - Another omicron subvariant that’s apparently “even more transmissible” than the last one is gaining steam around the region, as COVID-19 case counts continue to rise. The subvariant BA.2.12.1 — an offshoot of the BA.2 omicron “stealth” variant — now accounts for 20% of new COVID cases in New England, according to the CDC tracker. That’s almost double from 11.5% during the previous week. New York health officials recently sounded the alarm about the emergence of subvariants BA.2.12.1 and BA.2.12, warning that these highly contagious new variants are likely contributing to rising cases. The subvariants have been estimated to have a 23% to 27% growth advantage above the original BA.2 variant. “Another new strain that appears to be even more transmissible than the last and that would explain at least some of the rise in cases we are starting to see, though I think we would have seen one even without this,” “The good news is that it does not appear to be more severe than any of the last omicron variants — at least so far — and so we are really looking at more cases, but hopefully not a sharp increase in hospitalizations and deaths,” he added. “We will have to keep our eye on it.” A lot is still not known about BA.2.12.1. There have not been sufficient studies to adequately characterize its transmissibility, he said. “Since there is evidence that BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 are quickly becoming the major sublineages of BA.2 in New York and New England, this suggests that it may be more transmissible as it is displacing other omicron-related variants,” Hamer said.
Massachusetts reports 2,528 new COVID cases, virus hospitalizations increase - State health officials on Thursday reported more than 2,500 new COVID-19 cases, while virus hospitalizations ticked up again.The 2,528 daily virus cases in the state was down from 2,962 reported cases last Thursday. However, testing dropped 11% from last Thursday’s report.The omicron BA.2 variant is spreading across the region, and the subvariant BA.2.12.1 is gaining steam in New England. The Boston-area COVID wastewater data has been rising in recent weeks.The state’s daily average positive test rate had been plunging, but is now increasing. The average positive test rate is now 4.32%, up from 1.6% a few weeks ago.State health officials reported 13 new COVID deaths, bringing the state’s total recorded death toll to 20,219. The daily average of deaths was much higher following the omicron hospitalization surge. The daily death rate is now five.COVID-19 hospitalizations had fallen dramatically in the last several weeks after the omicron variant peaked. Now hospitalizations appear to be rising again.There are now 384 COVID patients across the Bay State after hospitalizations rose by 11 patients.There are 27 patients in intensive care units, and 11 patients are currently intubated across Massachusetts.The Department of Public Health reported that 29% of statewide COVID patients are currently being hospitalized because of COVID, and 71% tested positive for COVID while hospitalized for other reasons.
Boston-area COVID wastewater data shows 'big increases,' city health officials urge people to wear masks - This far into the pandemic, it’s clear that the wastewater doesn’t lie — and unfortunately, the Boston-area COVID-19 wastewater data is continuing to shoot up. The local wastewater samples spiking 109% over the past two weeks, along with a major increase in reported virus cases, led city health officials on Thursday to urge people to take “extra precautions” and mask up indoors. The most recent update from the Boston-area wastewater tracker shows the highest virus sewage samples since late January when the original omicron variant was on the downturn. Now, the wastewater data in both the south and north of Boston regions are rising as the omicron BA.2 variant spreads. Also, the subvariant BA.2.12.1 is circulating. The sewage data is the earliest sign of future virus cases in the community. “We’re seeing some big increases right now,” said Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health. “We know hospitalizations will go up, but with each progressive surge or swell, we keep uncoupling cases from hospitalizations and deaths,” he added. “None of us know how high things will go this time, but I think we won’t come close to the peak of omicron.” The south of Boston’s COVID wastewater average has surged 116% in the past two weeks. The north of Boston’s average has gone up 92% during the same time period. The wastewater levels are still much lower than the omicron peak. A recent one-day measurement in the southern region was 1,238 copies per milliliter, which was the highest virus wastewater level since Jan. 31 when there were 1,388 copies. Wastewater levels are going up in Suffolk, Middlesex and Essex counties.
Amount of COVID-19 detected in Maine's wastewater at highest level since February - Maine could be in the throes of another surge of COVID-19 that official case numbers aren’t fully capturing, as concentrations of virus in wastewater have remained high throughout the state over the past week. Several municipalities in the past week have reported their worst measurements since the state rolled out broad wastewater testing in early February, according to data from the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Biobot. The highest wastewater concentrations in the past week again came from Aroostook County, while wastewater testing sites in central and southern Maine also reported significant jumps. Maine’s average wastewater numbers remained far higher than the national average. Higher concentrations of COVID-19 in wastewater are a leading indicator of virus transmission, public health officials have warned, with other indicators such as higher case numbers and hospitalizations generally coming later. Case numbers also may not suggest the full extent of COVID-19 transmission due to greater use of at-home tests whose results aren’t reported. Maine is not alone with the rising COVID-19 levels: average virus concentrations nationwide have been ticking upward since late March, Biobot data show. But New England has generally reported among the worst wastewater numbers recently, with Maine and Vermont reporting the highest average concentrations in the U.S. in the past six weeks, according to Biobot.
Ohio reports 6,890 new COVID-19 cases as weekly infections tick up — The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday reported 6,890 new COVID-19 cases for the past week, an increase of more than 2,000 over last week, as the state sees its third consecutive rise in infections. Ohio averaged about 984 new coronavirus cases over the past seven days, the highest rate since March 4. Cases are up 43% over last week, 80% over two weeks ago and 122% over three weeks ago.Thursday was the sixth release of cases since ODH switched from daily to weekly reporting. The change coincided with new infections continuing at a low level after the omicron variant wave. Hospitalization, death and vaccine reporting are also weekly now. The 428 hospitalizations reported by ODH in the past seven days (about 61 per day) are 111 more than last week.94 more Ohioans died of COVID-19 in the past week, a decline from 100 deaths last week, 124 deaths two weeks ago and 249 deaths three weeks ago. 94 deaths are the fewest reported in a week since Ohio reported 75 one week in mid-August.*Ohio Department of Health reports weekly, on Thursdays.6,293 Ohioans started the COVID-19 vaccination process in the past seven days, per ODH data. Another 7,490 finished vaccination by getting their second dose. Around 6 in 10 Ohioans are partially or fully vaccinated.
With Nearly All COVID Cases Now BA.2 Subvariants, Here Are Symptoms to Watch For – With BA.2 omicron subvariants now representing nearly all COVID cases in the U.S., what symptoms should you be watching for?Cases of “stealth omicron” continued to increase in the United States over the last week, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention saying that iterations of the subvariant are now responsible for more than 90% of cases in the country.According to the latest data from the CDC, the estimated number of cases linked to the BA.2 subvariant actually decreased slightly to 74.4%, but cases of the BA.2.12.1 subvariant went up to 19% in the United States, meaning that more than 93% of COVID cases in the United States are believed to be occurring as a result of the BA.2 subvariants. Cases of the BA.1.1 variant, the original omicron variant that spread like wildfire over the winter in the United States, are now down to 6.1%, according to CDC estimates.The rise of t he omicron subvariants is coinciding with a rise in metrics for Illinois and Chicago.The state of Illinois is now averaging 2,292 cases of COVID per day, an increase of 31% in the last seven days. The week prior to that saw an increase of 34%, according to Illinois Department of Public Health data.Hospitalizations have also ticked upward in recent days, rising by 9% to 566 admissions in the last seven days. Of those patients, 73 are in intensive care units, according to officials.The current number of patients hospitalized with COVID are taking up 3% of the state’s hospital bed capacity, IDPH officials say.So with spread the subvariants continuing to climb, what should you be watching for?Northwestern's Dr. Michael Angarone, an associate professor of medicine in infectious diseases, said the symptoms for BA.2 are similar to those seen in many COVID infections."So this is the same virus, so SARS Coronavirus 2, so we're seeing the same symptoms," he said. Dr. Gregory Huhn, an infectious disease physician and the COVID-19 vaccine coordinator for Cook County Health, noted that while omicron led to more upper respiratory symptoms, it remains too early to tell if BA.2 will continue that trend."I don't know if we, right now, know the particular features that are distinct for BA.2 versus BA.1. I mean, for BA.1, we knew that it was mostly an upper respiratory-type infection rather than the lower respiratory infections that can lead toward pneumonia and further and greater complications," he said. Still, NBC News reported symptoms associated with BA.2 seem to largely mirror a small number of symptoms commonly reported in omicron infections. Anecdotal reports have suggested that dizziness could be a possible symptom, but they are so far unfounded.
Various Covid Updates by Yves Smith -- While the lack of any big Covid news absent the Administration’s foot shuffling when its mask mandate was shot down, that does not mean Covid should be ignored. Our Covid brain trust and readers have been sending news. Fresh from IM Doc:62 patients who are COVID positive – either ill themselves or found during testing or primary contacts. Again, zero unvaccinated. Of the 62 -35 were primary vaccinations, an additional 11 are with one booster – and the other 16 were 2 boostered. I had no partial VAX or J&J this week.ZERO unvaccinated. That makes 7 weeks of not seeing a single unvaxxed patient. Colleagues all over America are reporting similar issues – usually less than 5% unvaxxed are being reported.Something is going on. I do not believe for a minute it is because the unvaxxed have decided not to seek care. Nor is it young and healthy excuse – many of the positive vaxxed patients are young and healthy.I am becoming increasingly concerned that this may go pear-shaped if/when a more noxious variant emerges.And another alarming issue is rearing its ugly head again. THIS TIME MUCH EARLIER. This did not start last year until the mid to late summer. I have had to admit 3 patients this week – all adults – all 3 with RSV pneumonia. All 3 fully vaxxed and double boosted for COVID. One of these was a little old lady with DM – the other 2 were young men, healthy and robust. All had severe pneumonia. I have never admitted an adult with RSV until the COVID vaccines. Not once in 30 years. Here we go again.Thankfully, so far, the COVID has been pretty mild. None required admission this week. However, I am certain that at most 5-10 were reported to the health officials. Severe under-reporting is going on. THERE IS A REASON THE CDC and BIDEN PROVIDED AMERICA WITH THE FREE TESTS – AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PATIENT CARE. Needless to say, it’s not encouraging to see the vaccinated feeling sick enough that they need to see doctors. Regarding the apparent underrepresentation of the unvaccinated, it may be that they are on average more cautious than the vaccinated, who were sold repeatedly on the idea that being vaccinated protected them from getting Covid, or at least from getting all that sick. While the plural of anecdote is not date, the two unvaccinated people I know are insanely careful, hardly seeing anyone and well masked when they do.
UK COVID-19 vaccine roll out for 5-11-year-olds mired in delays during unprecedented virus surge - Under conditions of an unprecedented rise in COVID cases, young children are being placed at continued risk by the delay of the vaccination programme for 5-11-year-olds. National Health Service (NHS) staff only began vaccinating children aged 5-11 from April 4. Local vaccination centres or community pharmacies are being used rather than schools. Huge numbers of children and their families have already been infected or re-infected needlessly. Last month, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data revealed that the highest infection rates for all age groups were among these unvaccinated 2-11-year-olds, expected to attend pre-school settings, nurseries and primary schools with no mitigation measures in place at all—no masks, no appropriate ventilation, no social distancing. By January 2022, cumulative cases of COVID in the 0-19 age group had reached 3 million. Due to the unrestricted spread of the disease, in several variants, by April 13 this total had reached over 4.4 million in the 0-19 age group in England alone. ONS figures from April 13, tweeted by Safe Education for All member @tigresseleanor, show that among children aged 0-9 there have been a total of 1,548,770 cases; among those 10-14 there have been 1,576,132 cases. Child hospital admissions have increased since the April 1 decision to end the provision of free tests, including in schools. By April 13, total child COVID hospital admissions had reached 23,592. Of these 12,808 were aged 0-5, and 10,784 aged 6-17. On that day a further 95 children were admitted to hospital. There are over 150,000 children suffering with Long COVID and some 161 children have died from COVID in the UK, the highest toll in Europe, followed by Ukraine with 85.
Omicron XE: Symptoms of the new Covid variant as hundreds of cases found in UK - A new sub-variant of Omicron has been found in UK as the country battles a renewed surge of the coronavirus.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that 4.9 million people in the UK were infected with Covid-19 as of last weekend - a record high during the pandemic.The surge is cases is thought to be down to people mixing more freely since Covid restrictions were dropped and the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant. But now a further mutation has been detected that could be more transmissible, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned.XE combines genetic characteristic of the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants, in what is known as a “recombinant”.In a report released last week the WHO said the XE recombinant was first detected in the UK on 19 January and said early tests showed it could be more transmissible.The report said: “Early-day estimates indicate a community growth rate advantage of 10 per cent as compared to BA.2, however this finding requires further confirmation.“XE belongs to the Omicron variant until significant differences in transmission and disease characteristics, including severity, may be reported.”The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said on Monday that the most recent data showed XE had a growth rate 9.8 per cent above BA.2.However it cautioned that “as this estimate has not remained consistent as new data have been added, it cannot yet be interpreted as an estimate of growth advantage for the recombinant.”“Numbers were too small for the XE recombinant to be analysed by region,” the UKHSA said.
Omicron XE: 1,300 cases detected in UK - areas with most cases so far -Almost 1,300 cases of the new XE Omicron Covid variant have been identified in the UK to date, figures published today (22 April) by the UK Healthy Security Agency (UKHSA) reveal. XE is a mutation, or ‘recombinant’, which combines elements of two other Omicron sub variants – BA.2 (commonly dubbed Stealth Omicron) and BA.1, the original Omicron strain. The World Health Organisation has warned it could be more transmissible than the highly transmissible BA.2, which has been driving a recent surge in cases in the UK. It was first detected in England in January, and is also known by its UKHSA designation, V-22APR-02. UKHSA figures show as of 22 April, 1,293 cases of XE had been identified in England and one in Northern Ireland. No figures were reported for Scotland or Wales. It is the first time XE cases have been included in the weekly variant surveillance report. Not all Covid PCR tests are genomically sequenced to find what strain of coronavirus the person was infected with – and the number of tests being taken has plummeted since free testing ended in England at the start of April – so there will be more XE cases going undetected. No local or regional figures are provided in UKHSA’s data. Genetics research body the Wellcome Sanger Institute, one of the bodies that does genetic sequencing for the UK government, also provides data on Covid variants in England, broken down by council area. Their latest figures cover the week to 9 April, at which point it had identified 336 XE cases to date from genetically sequenced tests, the majority of them in March. Only two had been identified in the latest seven-day period – the week after free testing ended in England. Here we reveal the council areas that have had the most XE cases detected to date as of 9 April, according to Wellcome Sanger.
South Africa Covid Test Positivity, Wastewater Show Cases Rising – Bloomberg - A nine-week high in the positivity rates of Covid-19 tests in South Africa and the increasing incidence of virus fragments in wastewater indicate that there may be a resurgence of the virus in the country.On Monday, 9.6% of those tested for the coronavirus, or 877 cases, were found to be infected, the highest proportion since Feb. 17, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases said in a statement. Last week the South African Medical Research Council said that the incidence of Covid particles in wastewater was increasing in three provinces.
COVID-19 continues to run rampant in South Korea - The COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea continues to rage out of control, particularly among children. Last week, the Central Disease Control Headquarters reported on the mass infection of children between the ages of 0 and 9. As of April 7, one out of two children tested for the dangerous virus receives a positive diagnosis, totaling 1,823,539 kids. This is a direct result of the policies of the Moon Jae-in administration and the South Korean ruling class to remove all virus mitigation methods in its drive to “return to normal.” The 0–9 age bracket accounts for the largest number of infections in the South Korean population as a whole, with 48,494 cases per 100,000 people. The next largest group impacted is adolescents between the ages of 10 and 19, accounting for 41,726 cases per 100,000. These figures indicate the widespread infection taking place in schools. The surge in cases has also led to 20 deaths among children and adolescents, all of whom died following Seoul’s implementation of its “with COVID” policy last November, in which the population was forced to “live with” the deadly virus. Hundreds of people are dying each day, with the seven-day average on April 13 standing at 285 deaths daily. Put in perspective, approximately the same number of people die each day on average from a preventable disease as the 304 people who died in the Sewol Ferry sinking in 2014, a disaster that engendered widespread anger and anti-government sentiment. Hundreds of thousands of new infections take place daily, with cases surpassing the official totals in every other country nearly every day. Nearly 16 million infections—equal to 31 percent of the population—have officially been confirmed, and more than 20,000 people have died, the vast majority since November. Those who have recovered now face the danger of Long COVID and debilitating complications resulting from infections. However, these figures hide a far grimmer reality. Those who died before testing positive for COVID-19 or from complications following infection are considered “hidden deaths,” and not included in official counts, “The actual number of deaths related to Covid-19 may be two to three times the number of the official death toll. The cumulative number of deaths is estimated to be at least 30,000.”
India Is Stalling the W.H.O.’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public - An ambitious effort by the World Health Organization to calculate the global death toll from the coronavirus pandemic has found that vastly more people died than previously believed — a total of about 15 million by the end of 2021, more than double the official total of six million reported by countries individually. But the release of the staggering estimate — the result of more than a year of research and analysis by experts around the world and the most comprehensive look at the lethality of the pandemic to date — has been delayed for months because of objections from India, which disputes the calculation of how many of its citizens died and has tried to keep it from becoming public. More than a third of the additional nine million deaths are estimated to have occurred in India, where the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stood by its own count of about 520,000. The W.H.O. will show the country’s toll is at least four million, according to people familiar with the numbers who were not authorized to disclose them, which would give India the highest tally in the world, they said. The Times was unable to learn the estimates for other countries. The W.H.O. calculation combined national data on reported deaths with new information from localities and household surveys, and with statistical models that aim to account for deaths that were missed. Most of the difference in the new global estimate represents previously uncounted deaths, the bulk of which were directly from Covid; the new number also includes indirect deaths, like those of people unable to access care for other ailments because of the pandemic. The delay in releasing the figures is significant because the global data is essential for understanding how the pandemic has played out and what steps could mitigate a similar crisis in the future. It has created turmoil in the normally staid world of health statistics — a feud cloaked in anodyne language is playing out at the United Nations Statistical Commission, the world body that gathers health data, spurred by India’s refusal to cooperate. “It’s important for global accounting and the moral obligation to those who have died, but also important very practically. If there are subsequent waves, then really understanding the death total is key to knowing if vaccination campaigns are working,” said Dr. Prabhat Jha, director of the Centre for Global Health Research in Toronto and a member of the expert working group supporting the W.H.O.’s excess death calculation. “And it’s important for accountability.”
137 million in US live with unhealthy levels of air pollution: American Lung Association - More than 40 percent of the U.S. population — or 137 million people — are living in areas with unhealthy levels of particle pollution or ozone, according to the American Lung Association’s newest “State of the Air” report card. That’s 2.1 million people living in counties with unsafe air compared to last year’s report card — and 8.9 million more people impacted by daily spikes in potentially deadly particle pollution, the authors found. “‘State of the Air 2022’ shows that an unacceptable number of Americans are still living in areas with poor air quality that could impact their health,” Each report card covers a three-year period: 2018-2020 in the latest version and 2017-2019 in the previous edition. While the 2022 report shows long-term air quality improvements — which the authors attributed to emissions reductions — such efforts were offset by the negative impacts of hotter, drier conditions caused by climate change. Western wildfires were also responsible for the sharp rise in particle pollutions in several states, the authors noted. Fine particulate matter — particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 microns, also known as PM 2.5 — can be especially deadly, the report warned. These microscopic particles, which can come from wildfires, wood-burning stoves, coal-fired power plants and diesel engines, can trigger asthma attacks, heart attacks and strokes, and also potentially cause lung cancer. The State of the Air report assigned two grades for particle pollution: one for short-term exposure, or daily spikes, and a second for annual averages in a specific location. In general, the regions that fared the worst in both categories were located in California. The report found that a total of 63.2 million people lived in the 96 counties that earned an “F” for unhealthy spikes in short-term particle pollution. The top five offending regions: 1. Fresno-Madera-Hanford, Calif.; 2. Bakersfield, Calif.; 4. Fairbanks, Alaska; 4. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, Calif.; and 5. Redding-Red Bluff, Calif. More than 20.3 million people live in one of the 21 counties where annual particle pollutions exceeded national air quality limits, according to the report. The top five offending regions: 1. Bakersfield, Calif.; 2. Fresno-Madera-Hanford, Calif.; Visalia, Calif.; 4. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, Calif.; and 5. Los Angeles-Long Beach, Calif. The State of the Air report also found that more than 122.3 million people live in the 156 counties that earned a failing score with respect to ozone pollution. Ground-level ozone contamination, the authors explained, constitutes “a powerful respiratory irritant whose effects have been likened to sunburn of the lung.” Exposure to ozone, which is more likely to form in a warming climate, can lead to shortness of breath, coughing and asthma attacks — and ultimately may shorten life, the report warned. While the 122.3 million figure is actually 860,000 less than the number of people in last year’s report, it includes millions of people at an increased risk of harm from ozone, such as 27.8 million children and 18.5 million seniors, according to the report. The top five offending regions for ozone: 1. Los Angeles-Long Beach, Calif.; 2. Bakersfield, Calif.; 3. Visalia, Calif.; 4. Fresno-Madera-Hanford, Calif.; and Phoenix-Mesa, Az. Close to 19.8 million people reside in one of the 14 counties that failed in all three categories, according to the report. And of these 19.8 million, 14.1 million were people of color.
Gillibrand, Kildee to introduce bill to protect firefighters from toxic ‘forever chemicals’ - Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) will be introducing bicameral legislation next week that seeks to ban firefighting foam that contains toxic “forever chemicals.” The PFAS Firefighter Protection Act would prohibit the manufacture, import and sale of all firefighting foam that includes these chemicals — also called perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) — within two years of enactment, according to a copy of the bill exclusively obtained by The Hill. Known as forever chemicals due to their propensity to linger in the human body and in the environment, PFAS are most notorious for their presence in aqueous film forming foam (AFFF), used to fight jet fuel fires on military bases and at civilian airports. Also present in industrial discharge and a variety of household products, PFAS are linked to kidney cancer, thyroid disease, testicular cancer and other illnesses. “PFAS chemicals in firefighting foam jeopardize the health, safety, and well-being of firefighters who have put their lives on the line to protect our communities,” Gillibrand said in a statement. “To make matters worse, the runoff from this foam can quickly lead to widespread PFAS contamination in the drinking water of surrounding communities near the facilities where it is used,” she added. Both military bases and civilian airports have been using AFFF for decades, although the Air Force has limited its use to emergencies only. Such widespread use of the foam has led to contamination of adjacent waterways, impacting those who live or work near such facilities. Firefighters who combat jet fuel blazes — and therefore endure prolonged exposure to PFAS-based foams — face a greater risk of developing associated cancers and diseases, the Democratic lawmakers noted. Experts estimate that the drinking water supplies of some 200 million Americans are polluted by these compounds, they added. If passed by Congress, the legislation would ensure that “no person may manufacture, import, process, or distribute in commerce any aqueous film forming foam for use in training and firefighting that contains a per- or polyfluoroalkyl substance,” according to the bill’s text. The bill would also set firm deadlines for prohibiting the use of AFFF firefighting foams at airports, with a goal of doing so by 2024.
Chemours Claims PFAS Chemical GenX Protects Climate - The DuPont spinoff claims that the transition away from fossil fuels depends on its cancer-causing PFAS chemical GenX. Chemours has offered a novel argument in defense of one of its toxic PFAS chemicals, known as GenX: that the compound, which causes cancer and other health effects in lab animals and was released by the company into the drinking water of hundreds of thousands of people, is necessary for the fight against climate change. Chemours, a chemical company that was spun off from DuPont in 2015, made the case for GenX as an environmental good in response to a toxicity assessment of the chemical that the Environmental Protection Agency finalized in October. The EPA document set a safety threshold for GenX based on studies showing that it causes liver effects in rats, including cancerous tumors. But in a March 18 request for correction, Chemours’ attorneys asked the agency to weaken its threshold, arguing that GenX is necessary for the country’s transition away from fossil fuels. “Chemours’s chemistries are critical to achieving the United States’ energy transition and decarbonization ambitions,” attorneys from the firm Arnold & Porter wrote, going on to note that GenX is used in the process of creating compounds called fluoropolymers, which are used to make lithium-ion batteries used in electric cars, membranes used for water purification, and hydrogen from renewable sources. The company, which makes GenX in its plant in Fayetteville, North Carolina, and uses the chemical at its facilities in New Jersey and West Virginia, also insisted that continued domestic production is important for U.S. energy independence: “There are often no domestically manufactured alternative replacement products available for these missioncritical applications.” According to Chemours, which reported net sales of $6.3 billion last year, restrictions on GenX are not just a threat to the company’s bottom line. Noting that “fluoropolymers are used in every car, airplane, cellphone, as well as semiconductor and computer chips” and are also used in the production of “the vast majority of prescription drugs,” the company’s attorneys argued that the “EPA’s Toxicity Assessment, unless corrected, has the potential to cause significant harm to Chemours as well as to the broader United States economy.”
Despite new regulations, US faces major asbestos problem - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently took a big step toward curbing asbestos use, but experts say that even with the new regulations exposure to the substance is expected to remain a problem for years to come. It has been estimated the substance lingers in more than 700,000 public and commercial buildings in the U.S., leaving millions of people potentially vulnerable, particularly maintenance workers, construction crews and firefighters. “It’s still a very real problem,” said Arthur Frank, an environmental and occupational health professor at Drexel University who studies asbestos exposure. Asbestos refers to a group of six types of minerals that are made up of very small fibers. It has historically been used in cement and roofing, though its use has dwindled since the 1970s after its health hazards became more widely known. Exposure to the toxic material can cause diseases such as asbestosis, which is lung scarring from breathing in large amounts of the fibers. It also increases the risk of developing lung cancer and mesothelioma, a cancer of the membrane that covers the lungs and chest cavity, as well as membranes surrounding other organs. Asbestos exposure has been estimated to kill 40,000 Americans every year. Earlier this month the EPA proposed a ban on six ongoing uses of a type of asbestos called chrysotile asbestos, prohibiting the substance’s use in asbestos diaphragms, sheet gaskets, oilfield brake blocks, automotive brakes and linings as well as other vehicle friction products and gaskets. Despite the ban on these uses, asbestos still lingers in many structures, including homes and schools. EPA spokesperson Tim Carroll said in an email that about 20 percent of public or commercial buildings, or 733,000 structures, contain the potentially dangerous type of asbestos that can be crumbled, citing a 1984 national study. Many advocates said they are pleased the EPA is taking on the issue but have voiced concern that the administration has not gone far enough to address the toxic materials previously used over the decades, known as “legacy” asbestos. “We have an EPA that is doing something, but I wish they would take on this issue of legacy asbestos as well and at least educate people that there is lots of it out there and that if you think you’re going to be exposed to it, you need to protect yourself,” said Frank, who has given expert testimony in a number of asbestos cases. Carroll said the EPA was limited by the scope of the agency’s latest risk assessment, which was finished in 2020 under the Trump administration. That assessment looked at new uses of chrysotile asbestos and did not consider legacy uses of asbestos or risks from other kinds of asbestos. The agency is expected to look at legacy uses in the future, but it could be years before potential risks are assessed, let alone addressed.
Highly Contagious Avian Flu Found at Lancaster County Farm – NBC10 Philadelphia - A case of highly contagious avian flu has been found at a commercial poultry farm in Lancaster County. Over the weekend the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture confirmed the state's first case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. It was found in a flock of commercial chickens in East Donegal Township, Lancaster County. The farm and all commercial poultry facilities in a 10-kilometer radius are quarantined, and a state and federal task force is initiating a response plan. According to the CDC, there is no immediate public health concern for Pennsylvanians. No human cases of avian influenza viruses have been detected in the United States. Poultry and eggs are safe to eat if cooked properly. However, HPAI is spread easily and can be deadly to chickens, ducks, geese and other birds. Tens of millions of birds have already died across the country due to the outbreak, including many which were slaughtered. Officials are calling this the worst outbreak of avian flu since 2015.
Avian flu spreads to flocks in Pennsylvania, Utah | CIDRAP - As the scope of highly pathogenic avian flu continues to expand, federal officials over the weekend reported the first outbreaks in Pennsylvania and Utah, bringing the number of affected states to 29. Federal and state officials also reported more outbreaks in already affected states, especially in the hard-hit Midwest. Pennsylvania's outbreak occurred at a commercial layer farm in Lancaster County, in the southeastern part of the state near Harrisburg, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) said in a statement. In late March, the state had reported a positive H5N1 sample from wild bird surveillance. Also, APHIS said the virus was confirmed in samples from a backyard flock in Utah County, Utah, which is in the north central region and includes Provo. The detection marks the first appearance of the virus in the state; so far, no positives have been reported in wild-bird sampling. A handful of other western states have recently reported their first outbreaks in poultry, including Idaho, Colorado, and Montana. In related developments, a few Midwestern states reported more outbreaks. The Minnesota Board of Animal Health (MBAH) reported 2 more outbreaks, both involving turkey farms, raising the state's total to 40. The latest events occurred at facilities in Blue Earth and Meeker Counties, which together had more than 96,000 birds. So far, Minnesota's outbreaks have led to the loss of 1.94 million birds, the vast majority of them turkeys. The state is the nation's top turkey producer. Kansas reported its fifth outbreak, which affected a turkey farm housing 6,900 birds in McPherson County, located in the central part of the state, according to APHIS. Elsewhere in the Midwest, North Dakota had two more outbreaks, raising its total to 10. Both involved backyard birds. One hit a flock of 12 mixed-species birds in LaMoure County, in the southeast, and the other struck a backyard flock of 90 poultry in neighboring Barnes County. South Dakota reported one more outbreak, which affected a commercial game producer housing 1,300 birds in Deuel County in the east central part of the state. South Dakota has now had 36 outbreaks. The poultry outbreaks began in early February and involve the Eurasian H5N1 strain, which has also led to poultry losses in other parts of the world. In the United States, producers have lost about 26 million birds in the outbreaks.
HPAI losses reach 28 million, Pennsylvania and Utah report first cases --On Saturday, United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported 8 new cases, including the first cases in a commercial layer chicken flock in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania and a non-commercial backyard flock (non-poultry) in Utah County, Utah. The flocks have been depopulated. According to a statement released by Kreider Farms in Pennsylvania, the site where the commercial layers were infected, approximately 1.4 million birds were depopulated, representing 15% of the company's layers. Utah has not released a number of infected birds. The other six affected counties are: A total of 102,657 birds were affected. Anyone involved with poultry production from the small backyard to the large commercial producer should review their biosecurity activities to assure the health of their birds, says the USDA. The department has a list of tools producers can use to help with biosecurity measures.APHIS is working closely with state animal health officials on joint incident responses. State officials quarantined the affected premises, and birds on the properties will be depopulated to prevent the spread of the disease. Birds from the flocks will not enter the food system. To date, 28,518,854 reported birds have been affected by HPAI.
Avian flu outbreak on Lancaster County farm kills 1.4 million birds - For the first time in almost 40 years, a highly contagious strain of avian flu was detected on a Lancaster County farm, setting in motion a massive response to eliminate more than a million birds and to establish a quarantine zone in a large swath of the county. The disease was found at an East Donegal Township facility owned and operated by Kreider Farms, a family-owned dairy, egg and poultry enterprise that farms more than 3,000 acres in Lancaster, Lebanon and Dauphin counties and employs 450 people. “Kreider Farms, along with state and USDA officials, has been working round the clock to reduce the risk of further spread of the avian influenza,” said Tom Beachler, the company’s vice president of operations, in a statement. “The loss of birds at this site represents 15% of our egg layers. Fortunately, we are still able to fill customer egg orders from our other remaining locations which have all tested negative for the virus.” State officials said another 160-plus poultry operations surrounding the farm on Colebrook Road will be subjected to increased scrutiny and testing requirements under a 10-kilometer-diameter quarantine zone. Those precautions are part of an effort to stop the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza, which state Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding described as a threat to Pennsylvania’s $7.1 billion poultry industry, a large part of which is located in the county. “The heart of the poultry industry in Pennsylvania is in Lancaster County,” Redding said, revealing what’s at stake. Farmers and regulators have been on high alert for months after the current strain of the avian virus began spreading in the United States in December. The Lancaster County outbreak was announced Saturday, but it wasn’t until Monday afternoon that Beachler issued his statement revealing the Kreider property was the site. Even at a 1 p.m. press conference in Harrisburg, state agriculture officials declined to identify the location, citing worries about drawing unwanted attention to the site. “Additional traffic to the area increases the risk of spreading the infection to other poultry farms,” said Shannon Powers, a department spokesperson.
Avian flu taking toll on birds of prey - Avian flu is taking a devastating toll on birds of prey in Minnesota, including on bald eagles, red-tailed hawks and great horned owls. The Raptor Center at the University of Minnesota has reported 23 cases of bird flu in the last three weeks. Great horned owls are a special sight at Lake Nokomis in Minneapolis, if you’re lucky enough to see them. But the community is mourning the loss of a beloved family of owls that lived in a tree near the lake. The owls died from bird flu or had to be put down because they were too sick. “The word I would use is devastating. These birds are coming in having incredible seizures, unable to stand. They’re vocalizing. They’re kind of in end stages of this virus,” said Dr. Victoria Hall, executive director of the Raptor Center. The center has set up a new triage and quarantine center to take care of sick birds. Bird flu has killed millions of domestic poultry but is also having a major impact on wild birds like owls, eagles and hawks. “We have not seen this much transmission to raptors before in a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak, so this is pretty concerning,” Hall said. Ninety to 100% of the raptors testing positive at the Raptor Center have not survived, and some organizations are not able to take sick birds.
Raptor Center warns against feeding birds amid avian flu outbreak - Amid outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), the University of Minnesota's Raptor Center is urging individuals to help mitigate its spread by taking down their bird feeders and other apparatus that birds use to congregate. Raptor Center Executive Director Dr. Victoria Hall posted of the "unprecedented" nature of the U.S. HPAI outbreak on the center's Facebook page, and reminded the public that "all bird species are potentially susceptible to HPAI," though there is a gap of understanding in how the virus manifests in certain species over others. Just this week Raptor Center crews responded to reports of three young great horned owls in distress at their nest near Lake Nokomis in Minneapolis. All three were transported to the center suffering from extreme neurological systems: One died suddenly, and the other two had to be euthanized. All tested positive for the avian influenza. The parental pair was found dead in the same area as the infected nest. "Every day at The Raptor Center, we are seeing the impact of HPAI, as we triage and test birds like bald eagles and great horned owls that are intensely suffering from fatal neurological illness due to HPAI," Dr. Hall says. "With these infected birds, humane euthanasia is the only tool we have left to help them. We also know that this strain and outbreak is causing severe illness in other species like geese, ducks, blue jays, and crows." "During these unprecedented times, we recommend doing anything that we can to try and help our wild bird populations," Dr. Hall says. "Because the science is unclear on the role of songbirds in this current H5N1 outbreak, one consideration is to not encourage birds to gather together at places such as bird feeders or bird baths. These are places where things like viruses could easily be exchanged between individuals."
Dozens of Bald Eagles Have Died From Bird Flu - The New York Times - With millions of chickens on commercial poultry farms sickened and dying from a highly virulent strain of avian flu in recent months, it might have escaped notice that some of the nation’s most stunning wild birds have also been felled by the virus.The virus has taken an unusual toll on raptors or birds of prey, including more than three dozen bald eagles. Because the spring is nesting season, some experts are worried that avian flu may pose a serious threat to the birds’ potential offspring.In Minneapolis, a beloved family of great horned owls living by Lake Nokomis has died of avian flu. In Florida, black vultures have been infected. And in Georgia, three infected bald eagles werefound dead in coastal counties.The H5N1 strain of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, which is widespread in Europe, was first reported in North America in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador in December 2021. By mid-January, the virus had infected an American wigeon and blue-winged teal in South Carolina, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.Waterfowl, which are natural hosts of avian flu, have been especially hard hit. The 763 reported wild bird infections, according to the U.S.D.A., include snow geese in North and South Dakota, northern shovelers in North Carolina, brown pelicans in Florida, mallards in Minnesota and several unidentified ducks in Ohio.Bald eagles hunt living prey and scavenge carcasses, which offer a possible route of transmission for the virus. “If the waterfowl are dying, then eagles can pick it up from eating those dead waterfowl,” said Krysten Schuler, the co-director of the Cornell Wildlife Health Lab.The U.S.D.A. has reported 41 dead bald eagles infected with the virus since February, a number that does not include two more bald eagles that Dr. Schuler confirmed were infected in New York in late March, she said. This month, bald eagles have been infected in Ohio, South Dakota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Vermont, Maine and North Dakota. Bald eagles have long been considered a conservation success story. Populations were driven nearly to extinction by the synthetic insecticide DDT: In 1963, there were only 417 known nesting pairs. Despite this rebound, many bald eagles suffer from chronic lead poisoning. As the birds scavenge on hunted carcasses, they can ingest lead from ammunition, according to a paper published this year in the journal Science. This widespread, long-term exposure stressed the resilience of bald eagle populations, according to a study published this year by Dr. Schuler and colleagues in The Journal of Wildlife Management.
North American Birds Face Their Own Pandemic With Latest Bout of Avian Flu | Audubon -- An outbreak of avian flu that has been spreading across the United States and Canada over the past six months only seems to be getting worse. First appearing in Canada last fall, the flu has ravaged industrial flocks and has now been detected in a wide variety of North American wild birds, raising alarms among ecologists. A particularly viral strain known as highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1), or HPAI, the flu has already killed millions of domestic North American fowl, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To date, more than 28 million domestic poultry in 29 states have died either through infection or preventative culling. In Canada, seven provinces have detected the virus in commercial and backyard poultry. The flu has also appeared in wild flocks in unprecedented numbers, with more than 700 positive birds collected from 31 states and nine Canadian provinces—numbers that indicate a much larger outbreak as they only account for sick or dead birds that have been tested. All together, more than 40 species have been confirmed infected with the virus, a list that includes everything from Mallards and Black-billed Magpies to Bald Eagles and Great Blue Herons. Wild waterfowl, such as ducks and geese, and raptors, which prey on these species, make up the majority of cases. In Florida, more than 1,000 Lesser Scaups died as part of an ongoing mortality event. And last week at Baker’s Lake Nature Preserve in Chicago, 200 wild birds believed to be infected were found dead. This particular strain of HPAI appears to be more infectious and deadly to wild birds than previous versions, but gauging the pathogen's true impact on wild populations is more difficult than with domestic poultry, whose numbers are regularly recorded, says Andy Ramey, director of the Molecular Ecology Laboratory at the United State Geological Survey’s (USGS) Alaska Science Center. “There might be numerous birds affected, but only a small subset of the carcasses are actually collected and sent in for diagnostics.” So far, the strain is a low public health threat with no cases of human infection having occurred in the United States, according to the CDC. The virus, which can cause severe neurological and respiratory issues in avians, was likely transmitted by wild birds contaminated from last year’s Eurasian HPAI outbreak, says Julianna Lenoch, a veterinary epidemiologist with APHIS whose team followed the strain’s year-and-a-half spread throughout Europe and Asia. Lenoch believes migratory birds may have carried the strain from Western Europe through Iceland and Greenland before arriving in Eastern Canada. Once the flu made landfall in North America, the National Wildlife Disease Program at APHIS sequenced positive samples collected along the Atlantic Flyway. “Those sequences match very, very closely with what was circulating in Europe in the spring of 2021,” she says.
Bird flu reappears in Iowa after two-week-plus hiatus The Iowa Department of Agriculture on Thursday announced the firstbird flu outbreak detected in the state in more than two weeks.The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza occurred in a commercial turkey flock in Bremer County. Nearly 35,000 birds were destroyed to contains its spread. "While this is our first detection of HPAI in Iowa in the last two weeks, we have continued to take the threat of this virus seriously and encourage producers to remain alert,” Mike Naig, Iowa secretary of agriculture, said in a statement.Iowa was the state hardest hit early in current outbreak of bird flu, with 16 flocks affected and 13.3 million birds destroyed. However, its last outbreak before Wednesday's was April 5 in Hardin County. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that the disease has continued to crop up in other states. The largest bird losses have been in Pennsylvania, with three outbreaks and 3.4 million birds destroyed; Wisconsin, with seven outbreaks and 2.8 million birds destroyed; Nebraska, with six outbreaks and 2.7 million birds destroyed; and Minnesota, with 50 outbreaks and 2.2 million birds destroyed.
Avian flu confirmed in flocks in 2 more counties in Colorado — Avian flu was confirmed this week in poultry operations in Montrose and La Plata counties, leading to the euthanasia of thousands of birds, according to theColorado Department of Agriculture.The Montrose County case was confirmed Wednesday in a commercial poultry operation. The 60,000 bird flock is being euthanized to control the spread of the virus, the agriculture department said.The La Plata County case was confirmed Thursday in a backyard poultry operation flock. The flock was experiencing significant illness and was euthanized days before, the department said. The Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza (HPAI) virus has been identified in commercial operations and backyard flocks in 29 states and has killed about 28 million poultry across the country, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.No human cases of HPAI have been detected in the United States.HPAI isn't a food safety risk. Poultry and eggs are safe to eat when handled and cooked properly, the state agriculture department said. In birds, the avian flu has a mortality rate of 90% to 100% within a few days.
Avian flu spreads to more Lancaster County poultry farms - Chickens at two more farms in Lancaster County have tested positive for the highly pathogenic avian influenza, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture. That brings the tally to three farms in Pennsylvania — two in East Donegal Township, as well as one more nearby, said Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding. Redding declined to name the farms, saying that the department wants to keep people out of the so-called “control zone,” a 10 kilometer area where state and federal scientists and other experts are working to stop further virus spread. LNP reported that Kreider Farms is the source of one outbreak. Redding noted that while the virus poses no risk to consumers, it devastates poultry flocks — leaving farmers in the region on edge. “They want to know, as an example, if the trucks and service and supply for their particular operations coming out of the control zone, that those feed companies and supply companies have taken the appropriate protocols,” Redding said. Lancaster County alone has 1,677 poultry operations, including 162 within the control zone, Redding said. Statewide, poultry farming is a $7.1 billion industry that employs about 26,000 people. Penn State assistant animal science professor Gino Lorenzoni has been working with farmers in the control zone. He said he’s helping educate people on how to prevent them from spreading the virus. “It’s a very problematic virus,” Lorenzoni said. “It spreads very easily from flock to flock, so people can potentially bring the virus from one farm to the others.” Another part of the problem is that migratory birds spread the virus through their feces. Unlike chickens and other poultry, those birds sometimes don’t get ill, so they can transmit the influenza for hundreds of miles.
How the Battle Over a Pesticide Led to Scientific Skepticism - Across the US, after decades of decline, birds were coming back. Osprey were building their teetering twiggy nests all across Long Island. Pelican populations had rebounded in Florida. The peregrine falcon had made such a remarkable return that it was removed from the endangered species list, and wildlife experts predicted that the bald eagle would soon follow. At the same time, however, other birds were dying: crows, least bitterns, black-capped chickadees, mourning doves, mallard ducks, Canada geese, broad-winged hawks, great blue herons, and more. When West Nile virus appeared—for the second time—in New York in the spring of 2001, it spread from there to 10 states, killing thousands of birds and infecting dozens of people. When human cases appeared for the first time in Texas, they triggered panic and pesticide spraying. A writer old enough to remember said it all reminded him of 1949, when polio had devastated the city of San Angelo and the desperate city had saturated itself with the pesticide DDT.“A bad dream was back,” he said.In no time at all, his words seemed prophetic, not because West Nile virus shut down cities as polio once had but because, all of a sudden, people all across the country began calling for the return of DDT, which had been banned back in 1972.It’s time to bring back DDT, said a columnist in Washington, DC. Crank up production, if not for the people of New York, at least for the innocent children of the Third World, wrote a Colorado journalist. Thanks to DDT’s ban, which 1970s environmental groups had demanded, citing harms to wildlife, the environmental movement bore the blame not just for West Nile Virus but for millions dead worldwide from malaria, wrote a scholar named Roger Bate in the Los Angeles Times. In local papers from California to North Carolina, a former FDA official pointed out the irony that DDT was banned largely for toxicity to birds and now couldn’t be used to combat a mosquito-borne virus that was killing birds by the hundreds of thousands. Rachel Carson’s legacy, he wrote, was “lamentable.”But most of that season’s op-ed writers had a connection to the chemical they didn’t disclose. The Washington writer was the executive director of TASSC, an organization devoted to “sound science”—and created by tobacco company Philip Morris and its PR firm several years earlier. The former FDA official was a TASSC partner. The Colorado journalist was executive director of a “journalism center” directly funded by Philip Morris. Bate, the “scholar,” had founded an organization called the European Science and Environment Forum—which was funded by Philip Morris and British American Tobacco, and whose founding description exactly matched that of TASSC. DDT’s defenders, in short, were part of a campaign dreamed up by Bate, financed by tobacco companies, and designed to protect the global market for tobacco and cigarettes. Bate was a neoliberal think-tank leader with one objective: to advocate for free markets. The tobacco industry had a separate but related objective: to protect the cigarette market from encroaching regulation. They financed Bate’s operation because they were convinced it would serve their own. And DDT had a curious part to play in it all.
Cover crops more effective than insecticides for managing pests, study suggests — Promoting early season plant cover, primarily through the use of cover crops, can be more effective at reducing pest density and crop damage than insecticide applications, according to a Penn State-led team of researchers.In a newly published study, the researchers suggest that the best pest management outcomes may occur when growers encourage biological control — in the form of pests' natural enemies — by planting cover crops and avoiding broad-spectrum insecticides as much as possible.The use of cover crops and other conservation-agriculture practices can help reduce erosion and nutrient loss, enhance soil health, and improve pest management, noted study co-author John Tooker, professor of entomology in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences. Although the adoption of such methods has increased, he said, the use of pesticides continues to grow in the United States and globally, potentially killing nontarget, beneficial species and reversing pest-management gains from the use of conservation-agriculture tactics."Plant cover, such as cover crops, can provide habitat for populations of natural enemies of pests," Tooker said. "Winter cover crops, for example, can harbor predator populations outside the growing season of the cash crop. Once the cover crop is killed to allow the growth of the cash crop, cover crop residues remain on the soil during the growing season and enhance habitat for predators."Studies have found that cover crops reduce insect pest outbreaks by increasing predator abundance, but to retain these benefits, it's critical to protect these predatory species," he said. The goal of this study was to investigate how conservation-agriculture practices — cover crops, no-till planting and crop rotations — interact with two pest-management strategies that employ insecticides. These strategies are preventive pest management, in which growers plant seeds treated with systemic insecticide for the control of early-season pests; and integrated pest management, or IPM, an approach that involves scouting for pests and using insecticides only when pest numbers exceed economic thresholds, and then only when nonchemical tactics are ineffective.
Wolves are key for having healthier moose, study finds New research suggests wolves are more effective than humans at culling moose in a way that improves the overall health of their population — an argument that could bolster calls to keep the predators in the wild. While human hunters may eye healthier prey, researchers at Michigan Technical University found wolves seem to selectively target animals suffering from genetic diseases like osteoarthritis — helping reduce the prevalence of those diseases in the animal population.“Wolves might be an effective, natural, and more ethical way of regulating the health of deer and moose populations – as opposed to using culls or recreational hunting to reduce the incidence of diseases or parasites of concern,” Sarah Hoy, one of the lead Michigan Tech researchers involved in the study, said in a statement. The study builds on research that suggests wolf packs have broad positive effects on the ecosystems to which they’ve been introduced, rolling back the ecological damage from overpopulation by hoofed mammals like moose, elk and deer.But it also comes against a backdrop of controversy, with recent state and federal numbers showing wolf killings up in Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico and the Yellowstone Valley.The study team surveyed data spanning nearly five decades, focusing on animals killed by wolves on Michigan’s Isle Royale, home to a moose population and a wolf colony that arrived in 1948. They found that wolves tended to disproportionately kill older moose as well as younger ones suffering from osteoarthritis — a progressive, genetically-linked bone disease marked by the breakdown of cartilage around joints. That behavior makes sense, Hoy said, because “adult moose weigh between 800 and 900 pounds, which is between eight and 10 times as heavy as a wolf.” In other words, wolves are going after older and perhaps more vulnerable moose to better the odds.What was more surprising was the possible impact on the moose gene pool. The more of the large herbivores killed by wolves in a given year, the lower the rate of osteoarthritis in the surviving population.Past research has pointed to the effects of wolves being being introduced in certain ecosystems.In Yellowstone National Park, for example — where wolves were reintroduced in 1995 after their eradication in 1926 — the presence of wolves led to a ripple-effect “across the entire structure of the food web that defines biodiversity in the Northern Rockies ecosystem,” according to a 2014 study in PLOS One.But a record number of Yellowstone wolves — 25, about 20 percent of the national park’s population — were shot by hunters this winter after neighboring Montana, Idaho and Wyoming changed state laws to allow hunts of wolves who strayed from the park, The Associated Press reported.While these hunts were legal — though controversial — some other killings of wolves this winter were not. Twenty-one wolves were killed by humans in Oregon in 2021, including eight killed illegally by poison, according to a report by the state’s Fish and Wildlife Department.And 119 Mexican gray wolves were illegally killed by humans between 1998 and 2020,according to a federal Fish and Wildlife conservation plan released this month. In February, a federal judge restored the protections that then-President Trump had stripped from gray wolves in 2020. That relaxation of the law had allowed a 2021 Wisconsin trophy hunt that killed 200 of the animals.
A Maine-base company is helping fisherman become kelp farmers -- For decades, Maine fisherman Steve Train has made a living catching lobsters and other seafood. But as warming water off the Maine coast makes the future of the fishery more uncertain, he’s also now started farming kelp as part of a growing network of fisherman and women now working with a company called Atlantic Sea Farms. “It’s an opportunity for people to have another option to make an income,” he says. Kelp has other advantages: As it grows, sucking up carbon dioxide, it helps fight ocean acidification in local water, helping local marine life like mussels grow stronger. And it doesn’t require any of the resources, from fertilizer to irrigation, of growing food on land. “When you’re putting it on your plate and replacing broccoli, you’re actually adding something that is net positive,” says Briana Warner, CEO of Atlantic Sea Farms. The Gulf of Maine is warming faster than 99% of the ocean. Initially, that has helped lobster populations grow in parts of Maine. But as it keeps getting hotter, “at some point in the future, lobster larvae are not going to survive at the same rate that they currently are,” Warner says. Already, the numbers are volatile, with results hard to predict from one year to the next. By 2050, one study from the Gulf of Maine Research Institute suggests, warming waters could make lobster populations drop by as much as 62%. Unlike other states, she says, where larger fishing companies dominated in the past—leading to over-fishing and the eventual collapse of fisheries—Maine has thousands of independent fishing companies with single boats. “They’re looking at the future of the industry in a very different way than most fishing industries ever had, because they’re looking at it for their kids and their kids’ kids.” Atlantic Sea Farms first started as a single kelp farm in 2009—the first to become commercially viable in the U.S. —and Warner later started working with them as she was looking for ways to help fishermen diversify their incomes in the face of climate change. “We know that this can be done very, very well by fishermen who are using the same equipment that they use for lobster,” she says. “It’s done in the lobster off-season, and it uses much of the same skill set and the same equipment as as lobster fishing.” In 2018, she took over as CEO, and helped the network of new kelp farmers grow; 27 now work with the company, and the annual harvest has grown from 30,000 pounds in 2018 to an expected 1.2 million pounds this spring.
La Nina Advisory Issued: What It Could Mean For Summer - We could be looking at some major changes to our weather patterns as we approach summer and let's want to explain to you why that is.A couple of months ago, NOAA so came out with a release saying that La Nina was forecasted to transition into a La Nada (The Nothing), or the cooler waters off the equatorial Pacific we're supposed to warm enough from their below average temperatures, but not warm enough to become an El Nino, just rise to where they should be based on climatological averages.Well now NOAA has backed off that and is now forecastingthat the La Nina is expected to continue through the summer and possibly into the fall.And if that happens, there's the possibility that it has major ramifications for our summer weather and lets want to show you why.Here's a look at over time, How La Nina impacts summer temperatures and we talk about La Nina has impact on winter, but it also has a big impact on summer.Now during La Nina summers historically, the Midwest is typically a lot warmer than average while the West and East coasts of the United States see slightly below or much below average temperatures.Also that has an impact on precipitation based on the jetstream, It could mean a large part of the central and eastern part of the United States experiences below average precipitation.So if you have below average precipitation, it allows the ground to dry out and get harder. It also allows it to warm up faster, which leads to your above average to temperatures, now the Climate Prediction Center is seeing this and in their seasonal temperature outlook for June, July and August, It is showing above average temperatures for a large part of the country not totally in line with La Nina historically, but in the ballpark.It's also showing for our area, the chances for below average precipitation that's something that we definitely have to keep our eye on. Now what could throw a wrench in all of this is typically during La Nina summers, you have an increase in tropical activity in the Atlantic. And if we get a lot of tropical systems making landfall along the Gulf Coast, that could push quite quite a bit of rainfall into our area. That's something that we'll just have to keep our eye on in the months to come.
We May Be on The Precipice of a Dust Bowl -La Niña is showing her brutality as places that need to plant soon are snowed in and the places that have planted are dry, dry, dry, with the exception of the Mississippi floodplain. Here in central Texas, we are hit and miss with the official precip totals a little less than average, but we are not even at seven inches of measurable precipitation so far this year on my farm, Normally we would be well over a foot, and turning over the soil in March or April, we would not expect the first six inches of depth look like this: This is dry…abnormally so. With temperature swings hitting new record highs of 92F in April! And it’s not a good indicator for croppage north and to the west of us where the annual precipitation drops off considerably the further from the Gulf Coast you are. Irrigated fields north of us are having to run pivots on the planted corn and soy beans round the clock. We have previously covered silage, to death, as a touch point for consumer goods and feed for animal proteins. Cotton and wheat, however, often get looked over but are equally important to the overall food and commodity profiles for a population. Cotton, while not edible, does produce quite a bit of seed oils, in addition to fabrics and fibers. Wheat, however, is widely used from bread, to beer, animal feed, and virtually all baked goods and meat breadings. A chicken fried steak requires both wheat for the breading and more for the gravy to smother it in. That kind of meal, which used to be inexpensive, is getting it’s turn on the inflation dial. Contrary to popular belief, this is not due to Ukraine, as the majority of wheat imports for the US come from Canada. Ukraine exports to the EU, Egypt, etc. As the year has progressed, the US Drought Monitor has been blinking red, and going maroon like a Texas A&M homegame. Farmers in the Texas Panhandle, a large swath of earth that is home to the countries largest cotton growing complex, have been reporting Dust Bowl like conditions. With 12 million acres planted with cotton and 97% of Texas in drought, this spring is going to be rough for a lot of farmers. But moreso for consumers, as Texas is 14% of the farmland in the United States encompassing 127 million acres. The global economy has already seen dramatic inflationary pressures. With food staples and primary inputs inflating at the producer level, this will lead to further consumer and end user inflation six months from now. Commodities markets are already pricing this in: Corn is now at $8 a bushel, and soybeans up yet again now pricing at $17 a bushel. This daily continual add of 2-3% will ripple through the economy. Of context, the 2011-2012 planting was the last time prices were this high. Texas also was on fire in 2011, with large swatches of the country in dire straights. This looks to be the setup for 2022. Last year we accredited the historically good/bad figures to base effect, where the year over year comparisons were tainted by the fact that the economy in large part was shut down during the beginning of the Covid pandemic in 2020. The base effects no longer apply to year over year.
Price of corn hits 9-year high as surge in commodities continues - The surging price of corn hit another milestone on Monday morning as the cost of global commodities continues to push higher. The contracts for July corn futures were trading above $8 per bushel on Monday, the highest level since September 2012. The contracts were trading near $6 per bushel at the start of the year. Corn is just one of several agriculture commodities that has seen surging prices in recent weeks, in part due to the war in Ukraine. Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat and other items, such as sunflower oil, while Russia is a key producer of wheat and many of the chemicals used in fertilizer. That is leading futures traders to bet that higher input costs and more demand for corn as a substitute food item will drive up the price. Even prior to the war, agricultural commodities were seeing some upward pressure amid supply chain disruptions and high transportation costs that are contributing to inflation throughout the economy. Drought in the western U.S. and elsewhere in the world has also driven prices higher. In addition to global supply concerns hitting agricultural commodities broadly, corn also has a potential source of additional demand. President Joe Biden announced last week that his administration would temporarily allow the sale of higher-ethanol gasoline over the summer in an attempt to offset rising energy costs. Summer is typically one of the highest demand periods for gasoline in the U.S. The rising price of corn and other food commodities are contributing to the highest inflation rate the U.S. has seen since the 1980s, leading the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates. Some economists and Wall Street strategists are worried that, in the process of trying to slow inflation, the central bank could tip the country into a recession. The World Bank warned earlier this month that global food insecurity was likely to rise this year due to the higher prices.
Corn Nears Record High, Wheat Surges on Crop Supply Concerns -- Corn futures in Chicago exceeded $8 a bushel for the first time in almost a decade, approaching a record high as war threatens global supplies, boosting demand for U.S. grain. The most-active July contract rose 3% to $8.07 a bushel in Chicago with the conflict in Ukraine showing no signs of easing as Russian forces attacked Mariupol overnight. Futures are nearing an all-time high of $8.49 a bushel reached in 2012 after devastating drought and heat damaged crops in the U.S. Midwest. Wheat contracts surged as as cold and snow slowed planting. The global outlook for corn supplies has taken a hit as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupts farming and trade flows in a region responsible for about a fifth of exports. Not only that, but spring planting is also a worry now. That comes on top of a surge in fertilizer costs that’s dimming planting prospects in the U.S., the world’s top shipper. Demand is increasing as well. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported multiple sales this month of American corn to China exceeding 1 million tons. “People are also watching closely China’s economy, covid lockdowns and demand for commodities, especially corn”, Ukraine’s next corn crop could fall almost 40% from last year, a local grain association said earlier this month. U.S. farmers are poised to plant more soybeans than corn for just the third time ever as record fertilizer prices prompt growers to turn away from the cost-intensive grain. The rally in corn and wheat helped the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks farm products including soybeans, sugar and cotton, reach a record. Soybean futures touched $17 a bushel, before settling 2.2% higher at also closed higher with the most active contract reaching $17 a bushel before paring gains. Benchmark wheat futures in Chicago rose as much as 3.5% and settled 2.2% higher at $11.2875 a bushel, as colder than expected weather across the Canadian Prairies and North Dakota threatened to slow planting. For the spring wheat seedings, the USDA’s latest crop progress report showed that 8% of the expected area was planted, against 18% last year. For the U.S. winter wheat crop conditions, the USDA showed another reduction in good to excellent condition at 30%, below the 32% expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and 53% a year ago. “We are not seeing a lot of warm temperatures and soil temperatures are not coming up as fast as they should. This will be a problem in May, if this trend continues,” In the U.S., the cold weather is delaying corn plantings as well. Only 4% of the corn area was seeded, against 7% last year.
Utah declares new drought emergency - Lacking a divine intervention to fix persistent drought across nearly all of Utah, Republican Gov. Spencer Cox today declared a new state of emergency, urging residences and business alike to conserve or reduce water use heading into the summer months. The declaration marks the second time in two years Cox has issued such a mandate in an effort to lessen the impacts of likely water restrictions or even restrictions to drinking water in some areas of the state. “Last summer I asked Utahns to pray for rain, which helped. But we’re certainly not relying solely on deity to solve our problems,” Cox said this morning at his monthly news conference, broadcast by PBS Utah (Greenwire, June 9, 2021). According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than 99 percent of Utah is currently in “severe drought,” a category in which crop or pasture losses are likely, water shortages become common, and water restrictions may be imposed. Cox explained that the state of emergency will operate in the same manner it did last year — allowing individual water districts to determine any reductions for their users while serving as a backstop to communities to tap state emergency funds or other resources. “We’re not looking at any drinking water issues right now, but as the summer moves on, those things happen sometimes,” Cox explained. He said some conservation measures could be implemented as soon as June 1 by individual water districts. Cox noted he had recently visited the Jordanelle Reservoir in Wasatch County before deciding to issue the newest emergency order. “The view was striking. Jordanelle is literally half empty — or half full depending on your level of optimism,” Cox said. He noted that extended drought has reduced the state’s 45 reservoirs to 59 percent of their overall storage capacity. By comparison, the reservoirs were at 67 percent capacity at this time last year. “Extended drought and last year’s hot dry conditions have really drained our reservoirs,” he acknowledged. “There’s no doubt we’re going to have a difficult water year ahead.” The emergency order will also trigger increased water monitoring and reporting by state agencies.
Arizonans flee 100-foot ‘wall of fire’ - Thousands of people in Flagstaff, Ariz., were forced to flee their homes on Tuesday night as a wildfire with flames up to 100 feet encroached on their neighborhoods.The Tunnel Fire, which began on Sunday, doubled in size overnight amid heavy winds and was still raging on Wednesday, despite slightly more favorable weather conditions, according to The Associated Press. The towering flames ripped through some two dozen structures, sending the residents of about 766 homes — as well as 1,000 animals — scrambling to escape what one person described as “a wall of fire,” the AP reported. “To see flames several yards away from your property line and to hear the propane tanks bursting in the background, it was very surreal,” another resident, Ali Taranto, told the outlet. “Ash falling down. It was crazy,” she added.
Colorado River deemed ‘most endangered river’ in the US: report - The Colorado River, which provides drinking water to more than 40 million Americans, has become the country’s most endangered river amid rising temperatures and punishing drought conditions, a new report has found.Climate change, coupled with outdated water management, poses an ongoing threat to the lifeblood of the Mountain West — a waterway that serves 30 federally recognized tribal nations, seven U.S. states and Mexico, as well as some 30 native fish species and 400 types of birds, according to the report.In “America’s Most Endangered Rivers,” published on Monday night, the conservation nonprofit American Rivers ranked the country’s 10 most imperiled tributaries, based on three criteria: the waterway’s significance to people and wildlife, the magnitude of the threat and the possibility for members of the public to influence relevant decisions over the upcoming year.“The Colorado River Basin is ground zero for the climate and water crisis,” Matt Rice, director of the southwest region for American Rivers, said in a statement, describing the report as “an urgent call to action.”“The seven basin states and the Biden administration must work with Tribal Nations and Mexico to act urgently,” Rice said. “Failure is simply not an option, given all that depends on a healthy Colorado River.”Just last month, water levels at the system’s Lake Powell storage reservoir dropped below a critical threshold — and is rapidly approaching the point at which no water could be released from the reservoir’s dam, also known as “deadpool.” Meanwhile, the Colorado River system is already operating at a deficit, and forecasts predict a 10 to 30 percent additional reduction in river flow by 2050, the authors warned.The report described the Colorado River as “the lifeblood for some of the country’s largest cities,” including Denver, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix and Albuquerque.In one region of Arizona alone — Pinal County — mandatory cutbacks in 2023 triggered by water shortages will result in the loss of more than 500,000 acre-feet, or enough to serve about 1.5 million households, according to the report.“As the region learns to live with the river that we have, it is critically important that we continue to work together on equitable solutions for a healthy river, productive farms and thriving communities,” Rice said. “I fear that if we dig into our corners and pursue litigation over collaboration, we will not be able to meet the challenge.”Many tribal nations, meanwhile, suffer from a lack of modern water infrastructure despite the significant water rights that they hold to Colorado River water, the authors noted.
Chile announces unprecedented plan to ration water as drought enters 13th year -- As a punishing, record-breaking drought enters its 13th year, Chile has announced an unprecedented plan to ration water for the capital of Santiago, a city of nearly 6 million. “A city can’t live without water,” Claudio Orrego, the governor of the Santiago metropolitan region, said in a press conference. “And we’re in an unprecedented situation in Santiago’s 491-year history where we have to prepare for there to not be enough water for everyone who lives here.” The plan features a four-tier alert system that goes from green to red and starts with public service announcements, moves on to restricting water pressure and ends with rotating water cuts of up to 24 hours for about 1.7 million customers. The alert system is based on the capacity of the Maipo and Mapocho rivers, which supply the capital with most of its water and have seen dwindling water levels as the drought drags on. The government estimates that the country’s water availability has dropped 10% to 37% over the last 30 years and could drop another 50% in northern and central Chile by 2060. The water deficit in the rivers, measured in liters per second, will determine if cuts will take place every 12, six or four days. In each case, a different area would face water cuts each day. “This is the first time in history that Santiago has a water rationing plan due to the severity of climate change,” Orrego said. “It’s important for citizens to understand that climate change is here to stay. It’s not just global, it’s local.”
Pakistan among top 10 countries facing severe water crisis - Pakistan is estimated to be in the top 10 list of the world’s countries facing water scarcity, said Munir Akram, Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN) while emphasising the water issues that plague the country. He made these comments while speaking about the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 6, which deals with the issue of clean water. Highlighting the water issues, he said that Pakistan is on the top when it comes to water scarcity, reported ARY News. Stressing on the cause of water issues, the UN representative cited climate change, floods and drought as the reason. An appropriate framework around which to structure the themes of the dialogues can be formed through its five accelerants of Financing, Data and Information, Capacity Development, Innovation and Governance, said the UN envoy. Munir Akram, speaking about the water governance issues, added that the transboundary water cooperation has a key role crucial role when it comes to supporting wider regional integration, peace and sustainable development, as well as in tackling regional security challenges and in supporting climate change adaptation. “With most of the world’s water resources being shared between two or more countries, the need for transboundary cooperation assumes even greater urgency with rising water scarcity.” This comes at a time when Pakistan’s national water supplies have dipped substantially low and are facing severe strain as despite an early onset of summer in mid-March and April getting hotter than usual. It is because the snow melting process in mountainous and hilly areas has not picked up the pace. Pakistan’s water supply level is much below last year’s levels. It is also below average supplies of the last five or 10 years. On Saturday, the country received 90,000 cusecs in all its rivers against the last 10-year average of 1,37,700 cusecs, a drop of 27.73 per cent.
Farmers request for irrigation system amid expected drought - While efforts to stabilize political crisis in Afghanistan remain hollow, local farmers express frustration on yields due to limited rain showers, where reports suggested over 25 provinces out of 34 suffered drought in 2021. Local farmer called on the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock to provide irrigation system in order to tackle limited rain falls and expected drought in the country. “There was no precipitation. Only some snowfall happened and it just stayed within the mountains. There was no rainfall,” said Zahoor, a farmer, as local media quoted. This comes after Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) in a report quoted Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, saying humanitarian officials believe this to be the worst drought in a generation, with below-average precipitation expected to continue through early 2022. “Of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, 25 suffered from drought in 2021, contributing to a 20% decrease in cereal harvest from the previous year,” the report said. In a country, where about 70 percent of locals make a living from farming, irrigation system could be a game changer, guaranteeing livelihood of more than a half of Afghanistan’s entire population. “You see that farming is very difficult now. There is no enough water,” said Yaqotshah, a local farmer who has been in the profession for over 20 years, ensuring his families basic needs. “The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock should help us so that we can do our farming,” said Ghulam Ghaws, another farmer. On Wednesday, the World Bank in a statement said that Afghanistan’s per capita income has fallen by around 1/3 during the fourth quarter of 2021, wiping country’s economic progress achieved since 2007.
A century of groundwater accumulation in Pakistan and northwest India | Nature Geoscience - The groundwater systems of northwest India and central Pakistan are among the most heavily exploited in the world. However, recent, and well-documented, groundwater depletion has not been historically contextualized. Here, using a long-term observation-well dataset, we present a regional analysis of post-monsoon groundwater levels from 1900 to 2010. We show that human activity in the early twentieth century increased groundwater availability before large-scale exploitation began in the late twentieth century. Net groundwater accumulation in the twentieth century, calculated in areas with sufficient data, was at least 420 km3 at ~3.6 cm yr–1. The development of the region’s vast irrigation canal network, which increased groundwater recharge, played a defining role in twentieth-century groundwater accumulation. Between 1970 and 2000, groundwater levels stabilized because of the contrasting effects of above-average rainfall and the onset of tubewell development for irrigation. Due to a combination of low rainfall and increased tubewell development, approximately 70 km3 of groundwater was lost at ~2.8 cm yr–1 in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Our results demonstrate how human and climatic drivers have combined to drive historical groundwater trends.
Response to rising hunger threatens climate goals — experts - The world’s food system was under strain even before Russia invaded Ukraine. Now — compounded by the war’s effect on trade and a corresponding spike in global fuel prices — it faces two dangerous and intertwined crises.In the short term, Russia’s war on Ukraine increases the risk of extreme hunger for millions more people. The danger is particularly acute for low-income countries that depend on food imports. And countries such as Ethiopia and Yemen already are dealing with hunger fueled by conflict.Over the longer term, experts are concerned that the response to these problems could lead to further use of fossil fuels and an expansion of unsustainable agricultural practices. Continuing on this path, they say, could exacerbate the climate crisis and deepen poverty and food insecurity.Humanity now is feeling the rumblings of a “seismic hunger crisis,” the World Food Programme warned earlier this month.The U.N. organization estimates that it’s paying $71 million more per month to fund its operations at the same time that the number of people facing severe food insecurity has more than doubled — from about 135 million before the Covid-19 pandemic to roughly 276 million now.“We were already running short of the monies we were needing because of multiple conflicts around the world like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Syria, Yemen,” David Beasley, the organization’s executive director, told NPR. “On top of that, we’ve had climate shocks, two years of Covid, economic devastation and, just when you think it can’t get any worse, Ukraine.”Russia and Ukraine together provide roughly a quarter of all globally traded wheat and barley and half of the sunflower oil used in cooking. Russia — the world’s top wheat exporter — also is a major supplier of fertilizers and fertilizer inputs needed to produce food in the world’s breadbaskets.Sanctions, export restrictions and a halt in shipping from Black Sea ports have squeezed global food supplies and caused prices to soar to record highs.Those disruptions come on the back of supply chain bottlenecks caused by the pandemic and yield declines stemming from drought, extreme rainfall and other severe weather (Climatewire, March 16).Dozens of countries — including some of the world’s poorest and most food-deficient — depend on Russia and Ukraine for more than a third of their wheat supplies, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, gets 80 percent of its supply from Russia and Ukraine. Somalia, one of several countries in the Horn of Africa facing a severe and ongoing drought, gets almost all of its wheat from those two countries via Egypt.More than 13 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia already are experiencing extreme hunger, according to a recent report from humanitarian aid organization Mercy Corps. It predicts that figure could double this year if seasonal rains are below average, as expected.Conflict exacerbates the problem. Sudan, Lebanon, Ethiopia and Afghanistan also are at great risk from rising prices and supply shortages. Yasmin Faruki, a senior policy adviser for Mercy Corps, said it has had to reduce food rations to Yemen, where a civil war created a prolonged humanitarian crisis long before the war in Ukraine unfolded.
Time running out in Horn of Africa as millions confront hunger: UN |--With major precipitation failing to materialize nearly a month into the Horn of Africa’s rainy season, the number of people suffering from drought-induced hunger could surge from an estimated 14 million to 20 million by the end of the year, the United Nations’ food agency warns. The World Food Programme (WFP) says unending drought conditions, exacerbated by stagnant and decreasing humanitarian aid, are straining communities in the Horn of Africa — a large peninsular region in East Africa that generally includes Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti as well as parts of Kenya. This critical situation has been exacerbated by knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine, as food and fuel prices have soared to unprecedented highs, the WFP noted, adding “time is fast running out for families who are struggling to survive.” “We know from past experience that acting early to avert a humanitarian catastrophe is vital, yet our ability to launch the response has been limited due to a lack of funding to date,” Michael Dunford, WFP’s regional director for Eastern Africa, said in a Tuesday statement. Somalia is facing a particularly severe risk of famine, while half a million Kenyans are what the WFP described as “one step away from catastrophic levels of hunger.” Meanwhile, malnutrition rates in Ethiopia have surged well above emergency thresholds, according to the WFP. The cost of a food basket has risen by 66 percent and 36 percent in Ethiopia and Somalia, respectively. Both nations rely on wheat from Black Sea basin countries, the WFP noted, adding that some transit routes have seen a surge in shipping costs since the beginning of the year. In Ethiopia, the WFP described a situation of widespread crop failure, with over a million livestock deaths and an estimated 7.2 million people waking up hungry every day in the southern and southeastern portions of the country. While WFP representatives are on the ground, the program said it requires $239 million over the next six months to respond to the drought in this area. In Kenya, meanwhile, the number of people in need of assistance had increased fourfold in less than two years, according to the WFP. Escalating drought conditions have left 3.1 million people acutely food insecure, including half a million individuals who are confronting emergency levels of hunger. The WFP said that it requires $42 million over the next six months to nourish the most critically impacted areas in the country’s northern and eastern regions. As far as Somalia is concerned, the WFP found that some 6 million people — 40 percent of the population — are facing “acute food insecurity,” and that the country faces “a very real risk of famine in the coming months if the rains don’t arrive and humanitarian assistance isn’t received.”
What's behind South Africa's flood disaster - South Africa, the continent's most industrialised country, has largely escaped the tropical cyclones that regularly hit its neighbours. But last week, storms pummelled the east coast city of Durban, triggering heavy floods and landslides that killed more than 440. Meteorologists say the storms were not tropical. Instead, the rains were part of a normal South African weather system called a "cut-off low" which can bring heavy rain and cold weather. "Cut-off low pressure systems are common. Their frequency becomes high during autumn and spring seasons, and they are differing in strength," said Puseletso Mofokeng with the South African Weather Service. Some of these systems are very intense, causing heavy rain, hail, strong and potentially damaging winds and heavy snowfall. A cut-off low in April 2019 killed 85 people in Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces. If the storm system itself is a known phenomenon, the difference this time was the intensity of the the deluge. Here, experts point the finger at climate change -- warmer seas charge the atmosphere with more moisture, which then gets dumped as rainfall. "We've seen in Durban three (severe) floods in less than 10 years. Does it have to do with climate change? Definitely," said Mary Galvin of the University of Johannesburg. "We are feeling the impact of what will certainly be unpredictable, more frequent, severe and extreme weather events." A recent UN report says what was once considered a one-in-a-hundred-year flood event could end up happening several times a year by 2050.
Rare Nor’easter brings gusty winds, heavy snow and rain, coastal flooding, and rough seas to the Northeast U.S. - A rare late-season Nor’easter will continue to bring gusty winds, heavy snow, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and rough seas to the Northeast U.S. into Tuesday night, April 19, 2022. Chilly temperatures for Mid-April are expected to stick around in the East through mid-week. Much of the eastern U.S. will remain mired within an abnormally chilly air-mass for mid-April through mid-week, NWS forecaster Mullinax said, adding that a handful of daily record cold high and low temperatures are forecast in parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast today.1 In addition to the cold, a rare late-season Nor’easter will continue to produce periods of heavy snow in parts of the interior Northeast this morning along with gusty winds. By the time the snow winds down as the Nor’easter tracks farther north, snow accumulations totaling between 15 to 30 cm (6 to 12 inches) are expected from northern Pennsylvania on north into the Adirondacks. Some of the heaviest accumulations seen over the past 24 hours have been across the higher elevations of western Maryland, northwest Virginia, and northern West Virginia, with places like Cumberland, Hagerstown, and Frostburg, MD, recording from 7 to 15 cm (3 to 6 inches) since 17:30 LT on April 18.2 The system will continue to track north into portions of Upstate New York and the Interior New England tonight, where up to 30 cm (1 foot) of snow could fall in some higher-elevation areas. Some mountain areas could see up to 45 cm (18 inches) of snow by Tuesday, especially as lake-effect snow sets up behind the system.
Almost 200,000 New Yorkers left without power after late-season snowstorm – A surprise snowstorm left almost 200,000 New Yorkers without power on Tuesday. The late season storm Monday night piled wet and heavy snow onto tree branches and powerlines causing power outages across the state’s Southern Tier to the Adirondack Mountains. A springtime Nor’easter brought gusty winds, heavy rain, heavy snow and coastal flooding along the Northeastern United States on Monday, according to the National Weather Service, and will continue to do so into Tuesday night. As of 5:40 p.m. around 68,000 people were still without power across the state, according to the National Grid power outage map. However, according to PowerOutage.us, which aggregates data from utility companies across the country, about 165,000 New Yorkers are still without power.
Researchers predict active hurricane season - The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will see 17 to 21 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, according to researchers at North Carolina State University. The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The number of named storms predicted is above the long-term average, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State. The long-term (1951 to 2021) average of named storms is 11. Of the predicted 17 to 21 named storms, seven to nine may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of three to five storms becoming major hurricanes. The Gulf of Mexico will see an active hurricane season, though one more in line with historical averages, as Xie's data indicate the likelihood of three to six named storms forming in the region, with two to five of them becoming hurricanes, and one to two becoming a major hurricane. Historic averages for the Gulf are three named storms and one hurricane. Xie's methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin.
Study predicts climate change accelerates ocean currents - An international team led by researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego used computer model simulations to find that climate change is altering the mechanics of surface ocean circulations, making them become faster and thinner. These changes can have a ripple effect in the ocean, affecting the transport of the nutrients organisms need as well as that of microorganisms themselves. Swifter currents may also affect the processes by which the ocean removes carbon and heat from the atmosphere and protects the planet from excessive atmospheric warming. "We were surprised to see that surface currents speed up in more than three-fourths of the world's oceans when we heated the ocean surface," said study lead author Qihua Peng, who recently joined Scripps Oceanography as a postdoctoral researcher. The study, published April 20 in the journal Science Advances, sheds light on an underappreciated force behind the speed of global ocean currents. It helps resolve a debate on whether currents are accelerating as a result of global warming. Wind has been the main factor scientists have studied to describe and predict the speed of currents, but the research team used a global ocean model to simulate what happens when sea surface temperatures are also increased. They found that warming makes the topmost layers of water become lighter. The increased density difference of those warm surface layers from the cold water beneath limits the swift ocean currents to a thinner layer, causing the surface currents to speed up in more than three-fourths of the world's oceans. The increased speed of rotating ocean currents known as gyres was associated with a slowdown of ocean circulation underneath. The team directly correlated the trend to the presence of ever-increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Currents are organized into gyres in most oceans that are bounded by continents. The Southern Ocean that rings Antarctica is an exception. There, howling westerly winds make the Antarctic Circumpolar Current the largest in the world in terms of volume transport. Last year, Scripps scientists detected from ocean and space observations that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is speeding up.
Antarctic sea ice experiences record low extent for the second time in 5 years - Arctic sea ice may be disappearing, but until recently, Antarctic sea ice was having the opposite experience. In February, however, the extent of sea ice at the southern hemisphere experienced a record low, the second such event in five years. Researchers have now identified its proximate causes, but many mysteries remain. A study describing their findings was published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences on April 19. The extent of sea ice in the Arctic is famously undergoing rapid decline as a result of global warming, but at the Earth's other pole, Antarctic sea ice has been enjoying a modest increasing trend of about one percent a decade since the late 1970s (albeit with significant variation from year to year and substantial regional differences). Yet in the face of this overall increasing trend in the Antarctic, there was something of a brief but quite marked aberration in 2017, when the southern hemisphere experienced a record minimum extent of sea ice. And now just five years later, it has happened again. On February 25 2022, a few days from the end of the Southern hemisphere's summer, a record minimum in Antarctic sea ice extent was set—the first time it has hit under 2 million square kilometers since launch of satellite observations of the poles in 1978. The data showed that there was significantly lower than normal ice cover in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, the Weddell Sea and the western Indian Ocean sector. More curious still, throughout the region, the sea ice extent was some 30 percent lower than the average across the 1981-2010 three-decade baseline period. The causes of the variability of Antarctic sea ice are complicated, and various mechanisms have been proposed in recent years, but there is no scientific consensus and the phenomenon remains under-theorized, with a great deal yet to be explored. And so the fresh occurrence of a fresh sea-ice extent minimum in such a short period of time drove a group of researchers at Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) in China set out to find out what had occurred and why.The researchers found that in the summertime, it is the thermodynamics that dominate the processes that cause the sea ice melting. This occurs through anomalies in the transport of heat toward the pole in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, the western Pacific Ocean, and the eastern Weddell Sea in particular. There is also an increase in overall infrared radiation and visible light as a result of a positive feedback of albedo and temperature. Albedo describes basically the "whiteness" of a surface. The whiter it is, the greater the reflection of such radiation, and the darker, the greater the absorption. But in the spring, both thermodynamics and dynamics contribute to the status of sea ice extent. In addition to the above thermodynamic processes, the dynamics of ice loss in the Amundsen Sea sees a northward ice motion that pushes more ice to the lower latitudes towards the tropics, thus increasing melting, especially in the Amundsen Sea and the Ross Sea. In addition, thinner sea ice freeboard (the thickness of the sea ice that sticks out above the waterline) along the coast of the Amundsen Sea plays a critical role with respect to the spring and summer melting.
Record low Antarctic sea ice extent could signal shift - Sea ice around Antarctica shrank to the smallest extent on record in February, five years after the previous record low, researchers said Tuesday, suggesting Earth's frozen continent may be less impervious to climate change than thought. In late February, the ocean area covered by ice slipped below the symbolic barrier of two million square kilometers (around 772,000 square miles) for the first time since satellite records began in 1978, according to a study in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. Researchers found that the key driver of ice loss was change in temperature, though shifts in ice mass also played a lesser role. Both the North and South pole regions have warmed by roughly three degrees Celsius compared to late 19th-century levels, three times the global average. Antarctica encountered its first recorded heatwave in 2020, with an unprecedented 9.2C above the mean maximum, and in March a research center in eastern Antarctica saw temperatures soar 30 degrees above normal. But extreme aberrations of this kind are recent. Unlike sea ice in the Arctic, which has diminished by three percent a year since the late 1970s, sea ice in Antarctica expanded over the same period by one percent per decade, albeit with large annual variations. Ice cover during this year's austral summer shrank most around West Antarctica, which has been more vulnerable to global warming than the far larger East Antarctica. Melting sea ice has no discernable impact on sea levels because the ice is already in ocean water. But diminished ice cover is nonetheless a major concern because it helps accelerate global warming, explained co-author Qinghua Yang, a professor at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou. When white sea ice—which bounces the Sun's energy back into space—is replaced by dark, unfrozen sea, "there is less reflection of heat and more absorption," he said in a statement. "This in turn melts more sea ice, producing more absorption of heat, in a vicious circle." Pristine snow and ice reflect more than 80 percent of the Sun's energy back into space whereas open ocean absorb the same percentage. Startlingly, the record low 1.9 million square kilometers on February 25 was 30 percent below the 1981-2010 average. The previous record was just over two million square kilometers in 2017. Maximum sea ice extent in Antarctica has averaged about 18 million square kilometers in recent years.
Climate Change Is Hurting Penguins Unevenly in Antarctica - Adélie penguins have had a rough time of it on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, where warming linked to climate changehas occurred faster than almost anywhere else on the planet. That and other factors have led to sharp declines in Adélie populations in recent decades.But on the eastern side, it’s a different story.“It’s just a complete train wreck on the western side of the peninsula,” said Heather J. Lynch, a statistical ecologist at Stony Brook University who studies penguin populations and how they are changing. “But on the eastern side, the populations are stable and quite healthy.”Dr. Lynch uses satellite imagery in much of her work, but also organizes penguin-surveying expeditions to the peninsula, the northernmost part of the Antarctic continent. On the latest one, in January, three of her current and former doctoral students did the counting, at islands on the eastern side of the peninsula in the Weddell Sea.Their work showed that Adélie populations there have changed little since previous counts taken over the last two decades. That suggests that as global warming continues and Adélie populations decline in other parts of the continent, the Weddell may remain an important refuge for the birds.
High-level eruption at Manam volcano, P.N.G. - (video) A high-level eruption started at Manam volcano, Papua New Guinea at 16:20 UTC on April 17, 2022. According to the Darwin VAAC, volcanic ash was observed on RGB and Visible satellite imagery moving N and NW. IR temperature of approximately -71 °C (95.8 °F) resulted in a height estimate of 13.7 km (45 000 feet). The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red.1 Satellite imagery acquired at 05:40 UTC on April 18 indicated that ash from the volcano has dissipated. There are no further reports of new or ongoing eruption, but the Aviation Color Code remains at Red, as of 06:30 UTC on April 18. Several eruptions took place at Manam volcano, Papua New Guinea on March 8 and 9, 2022. The largest sent volcanic ash up to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) above sea level, drifting W and toward the main island.
Volcanoes at fault if the Earth slips -- The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes shocked inhabitants of the western island of Kyushu, causing hundreds of casualties and serious damage to vital infrastructure. The epicenter of the quake was traced to the Futagawa fault in a region neighboring Mount Aso, an active volcano in Kumamoto Prefecture that last erupted in October 2021. An investigation of earth displaced by the series of quakes has offered potentially new clues into seismic activity in regions close to volcanoes. The study has also attributed the root cause of the 7.3-magnitude mainshock to specific geological damage. The Futagawa strike-slip fault is a vertical break in the ground tracing a line southwest originating from Mount Aso, where the two sides of the fault point straight down and brush against each other side to side during an earthquake. The research team had anticipated that any rupturing would occur exclusively near the strike-slip fault system. But as Weiren Lin of KyotoU's Graduate School of Engineering says, ''our discovery of a relatively large dip-slip displacement at the site was unexpected.'' As part of the team's exploration around the epicenter of the 2016 quakes, scientists drilled a series of bore holes, including one that measured more than 600 meters deep. By extracting and analyzing the types of rocks present in these cores, they were able to reconstruct the different layers of earth around the fault. Surprisingly, at two boreholes 80 meters apart, the scientists noticed that the same layer of rock sediment was appearing at different depths and separated by more than 200 meters vertically. This large gap could only be explained by the current strike-slip motion, where the two sides of the fault move up and down with respect to each other. The team has attributed this dramatic change in the fault slip mode to eruption activity of Aso occurring around this time. Such observations from the Aso volcanic region could apply more broadly to similar volcanic areas near other subduction zones.
Bright fireball over southern Ontario expected to have dropped meteorites, Canada - (video) A bright fireball was observed by a network of all-sky cameras across southern Ontario, Canada at 05:37 UTC on April 18, 2022. Analysis of the video data suggests that fragments of the meteor are likely to have made it to the ground near the eastern shore of Lake Simcoe, just north of the town of Argyle. Denis Vida, who specializes in the study of meteors, confirmed that more than a dozen all-sky cameras of Western’s Southern Ontario Meteor Network (SOMN) captured the event north of Toronto as did a number of citizen scientist-operated cameras from the Global Meteor Network (GMN).1 “This fireball was particularly significant because it was moving slowly, was on an asteroidal orbit and ended very low in the atmosphere. These are all good indicators that material survived,” says Vida, an astronomy postdoctoral associate. In fact, the fireball was still producing light at just 29 km (18 miles) altitude. Another factor that strongly favors the survival of meteorites includes the very steep entry angle (about 30 degrees from the vertical), Vida said. “Taken together, these factors suggest many small meteorites have made it to the ground.” This event is equally important because Western’s meteor research group has good-quality video data of its passage through the atmosphere so they can calculate the rock’s origin in our solar system. Preliminary results indicate that the fireball first became visible at an altitude of 90 km (56 miles) and traveled almost due north. “The initial mass is believed to have been around 10 kg (22 pounds) and we would expect tens to hundreds of grams of material on the ground,” Vida said. “Meteorites are of great interest to researchers as studying them helps us to understand the formation and evolution of the solar system.” Ontario fireball trajectory as projected by Western’s all-sky camera network. Credit: UWO
Major X1.1 solar flare erupts from Active Region 2994 - (video) A major solar flare measuring X1.1 at its peak erupted from newly numbered Active Region 2994 at 03:34 UTC on April 17, 2022. The event started at 03:17 UTC and ended at 03:51. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during the event but the location of the source region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. This will change in the days ahead as the region turns into geoeffective position. This event was associated with a Type II radio sweep, with estimated velocity of 614 km/s, and a 10 cm Radio Burst lasting 2 minutes, with peak flux of 122 sfu. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery starting at 03:48 UTC. Region 2994 and Region 2993 form a cluster of active sunspots that have produced significant flaring prior to appearing on the eastern limb. Solar activity is expected to be active over the next week as these sunspots migrate across the visible disk.
Major X2.2 solar flare erupts just beyond the southwest limb of the Sun - (videos) A major solar flare measuring X2.2 at its peak erupted at 03:57 UTC on April 20, 2022, from a region located just beyond the southwest limb of the Sun – likely former Region 2992. The event started at 03:41 UTC and ended at 04:04. The flare was associated with multiple bursts on specific radio frequencies, including a burst of 509 solar flux units on 2 695 MHz. Additionally, a Type II Radio Emission was detected by the USAF Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN), with an estimated velocity of 1 630 km/s. This radio signature is often indicative of a potential coronal mass ejection (CME). Coronagraph imagery from the NASA/SOHO LASCO instrument are still not available to confirm if a CME took place. However, as the source region of the flare was beyond the southwest limb, initial analysis suggests any CME is unlikely to have an Earth-directed component.
M9.6 solar flare erupts from Region 2993, CME produced - (videos) A strong solar flare measuring M9.6 at its peak erupted from Active Region 2993 at 01:59 UTC on April 21, 2022. The event started at 01:47 UTC and ended at 02:05. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced and there is a possibility there is an Earth-directed component. Region 2993 is one of two moderately complex sunspot groups currently present on the northeast quadrant of the Sun – the other being Region 2994, SWPC forecasters said.1 A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 132 km/s was registered at 01:57 UTC, suggesting a CME was associated with a flare event. A Type IV Radio Emission and a 10 cm Radio Burst (duration 3 minutes; peak flux 370 sfu) were also associated with the event. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong CMEs and solar radiation storms. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.The most recent imagery from the NASA/SOHO LASCO instrument confirms a CME took place, SWPC said, adding that they are currently analyzing the CME to determine the likelihood of any Earth-directed component.
Methane emissions from US low production oil and natural gas well sites | Nature - Eighty percent of US oil and natural gas (O&G) production sites are low production well sites, with average site-level production ≤15 barrels of oil equivalent per day and producing only 6% of the nation’s O&G output in 2019. Here, we integrate national site-level O&G production data and previously reported site-level CH4 measurement data (n = 240) and find that low production well sites are a disproportionately large source of US O&G well site CH4 emissions, emitting more than 4 (95% confidence interval: 3—6) teragrams, 50% more than the total CH4 emissions from the Permian Basin, one of the world’s largest O&G producing regions. We estimate low production well sites represent roughly half (37—75%) of all O&G well site CH4 emissions, and a production-normalized CH4 loss rate of more than 10%—a factor of 6—12 times higher than the mean CH4 loss rate of 1.5% for all O&G well sites in the US. Our work suggests that achieving significant reductions in O&G CH4 emissions will require mitigation of emissions from low production well sites. Mitigation of methane (CH4) emissions, a powerful greenhouse gas with >80× the 20-year warming potential of carbon dioxide1,2, is widely recognized as strategically integral to the attainment of the climate-neutrality goals of Paris Agreement3,4. In the United States, official estimates from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicate nearly one-third (30%) of anthropogenic CH4 emissions arise from oil and natural gas (O&G) operations5. However, a large body of measurement-based studies6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 have consistently found higher O&G CH4 emissions than is estimated in EPA inventories. Alvarez et al.16 synthesized research on US O&G CH4 emissions in 2015 and found 13 teragrams (1 Tg = 1 million metric tons), 60% higher than the Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHGI) estimates for 2015 as estimated in 2017; in Reporting Year 2021, EPA lowered estimated 2015 emissions making the difference 70%5. Much of this discrepancy has been attributed to the O&G production sector, where measurement-based estimates are ~2× higher than the GHGI16,17,18, with recent research suggesting substantial underestimation in the GHGI attributed to fugitive emissions from well site equipment and unintentional emissions from liquids storage tanks18. … […] …We estimate that ~50% (95% CI: 20–80%) of low production well site CH4 emissions are from the top 5% of sites that emit >7 kg CH4/h/site, consistent with the empirical distribution and with previous results from a large body of O&G CH4 studies8,9,12,17,23,26,29,33. Overall, our modeling indicates that 90% of low production well sites emit an average of <1 kg CH4/h/site, while 50% emit >10% of their CH4 production (Fig. 4c). Based on a total of 4 Tg CH4 emitted by 565,000 low production well sites in 2019, we estimate an average site-level CH4 emission rate of 0.8 kg/h/site (95% CI: 0.5–1.2). This site-level estimate for low production well sites is approximately 50% lower than the mean site-level CH4 emission rates for all US natural gas production sites (1.7 kg CH4/h/site17). Thus, while mean low production well site emissions are lower than that for all O&G production sites on an absolute basis, their production-normalized CH4 loss rates are significantly higher, consistent with previous assessments focused on CH4 emissions from US natural gas production sites17. We find that the ultralow production cohort accounts for 25% (95% CI: 17–49%) of total low production site CH4 emissions (Fig. 4a), representing ~10% of total US O&G CH4emissions from production sites and only 0.7% of US O&G production. In addition, the Appalachian region dominates regional CH4 emissions, with an estimated total of 1.2 Tg (95% CI: 0.8–1.9; Fig. 4b). We estimate the ultralow production sites (i.e., sites ≤2 boed) in the Appalachian account for ~one-half (95% CI: 40–60%) of the region’s total low production well site CH4 emissions, where the estimated regional CH4 loss rate is 26% (95% CI: 17–40%; Fig. 4b). These results underscore the significance of the ultralow production sites as sources of O&G CH4 emissions, especially in the Appalachian region where they account for ~90% of all low production sites.
Hydrogen 11 times worse than CO2 for climate, says new report -Hydrogen will be one of humanity's key weapons in the war against carbon dioxide emissions, but it must be treated with care. New reports show how fugitive hydrogen emissions can indirectly produce warming effects 11 times worse than those of CO2.Hydrogen can be used as a clean energy carrier, and running it through a fuel cell to produce electricity produces nothing but water as a by-product. It carries far more energy for a given weight than lithium batteries, and it's faster to refill a tank than to charge a battery, so hydrogen is viewed as a very promising green option in several hard-to-decarbonize applications where batteries won't cut the mustard – for example, aviation, shipping and long-haul trucking. A But when it's released directly into the atmosphere, hydrogen itself can interact with other gases and vapors in the air to produce powerful warming effects. Indeed, a new UK Government study has put these interactions under the microscope and determined that hydrogen's Global Warming Potential (GWP) is about twice as bad as previously understood; over a 100-year time period, a tonne of hydrogen in the atmosphere will warm the Earth some 11 times more than a tonne of CO2, with an uncertainty of ± 5. Hydrogen reacts with the same tropospheric oxidants that "clean up" methane emissions. Methane is an incredibly potent greenhouse gas, causing some 80 times more warming than an equivalent weight of CO2 over the first 20 years. But hydroxyl radicals in the atmosphere clean it up relatively quickly, while CO2 remains in the air for thousands of years, so CO2 is worse in the long run.When hydrogen is present, however, those hydroxyl radicals react with the hydrogen instead. There are fewer cleanup agents to go around, so there's a direct rise in methane concentrations, and the methane stays in the atmosphere longer.What's more, the presence of hydrogen increases the concentration of both tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapor, boosting a "radiative forcing" effect that also pushes temperatures higher.
Climate Collapse & Adaptation --Collapse. Not just the political collapse we’re currently watching — the slow drift into failed-state status that looks like molasses crawling its way into a jar. But the other collapse, the bigger one — the end of human civilization. That sounds dramatic, doesn’t it, the end of civilization? Probably too dramatic for most people. But that’s only because there’s no “social proof” — better stated as “permission to think this way” — that lets people even entertain the thought. Apocalypticists are regularly trashed and dismissed by the writers of the right, and no countervailing voices — not from scientists (who I know know differently), nor the bought-off press, nor our bought-and-paid politicians — will say otherwise. In other words, the Overton Window on discussing the possibility of collapse is completely closed. No wonder even the wealthy, some of whom I’ve discussed this with, don’t seem alarmed. (I’m certain, though, that the very very wealthy are making plans as we speak, or have made them already. Despite the near total silence on the subject of collapse, some are starting to speak about its nearer certainty, and more importantly, speak about how to process and deal with it. To that end, I offer this, a preliminary look at a 35-page paper entitled, “Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy,” by Professor Jem Bendell, published 2018, revised 2020. It made enough splash when first published it sparked a movement named for its title. As Bendell says in the Abstract, “The author believes this is one of the first papers in the sustainability management field to conclude that climate-induced near-term societal collapse should now be a central concern for everyone, and therefore to invite scholars to explore the implications” (emphasis added). Yes, there is a field called “sustainability management,” and it’s an important one. Early on, he asks these important questions: Can professionals in sustainability management, policy and research – myself included – continue to work with the assumption or hope that we can slow down climate change, or respond to it sufficiently to sustain our civilisation? As disturbing information on climate change passed across my screen, this was the question I could no longer ignore, and therefore decided to take a couple of months to analyse the latest climate science. As I began to conclude that we can no longer work with that assumption or hope, I asked a second question. Have professionals in the sustainability field discussed the possibility that it is too late to avert an environmental catastrophe and the implications for their work? A quick literature review revealed that my fellow professionals have not been publishing work that explores, or starts from, that perspective. That led to a third question, on why sustainability professionals are not exploring this fundamentally important issue to our whole field as well as our personal lives. To explore that, I drew on psychological analyses, conversations with colleagues, reviews of debates amongst environmentalists in social media and self-reflection on my own reticence. Concluding that there is a need to promote discussion about the implications of a societal collapse triggered by an environmental catastrophe, I asked my fourth question on what are the ways that people are talking about collapse on social media. I identified a variety of conceptualisations and from that asked myself what could provide a map for people to navigate this extremely difficult issue. For that, I drew on a range of reading and experiences over my 25 years in the sustainability field to outline an agenda for what I have termed “deep adaptation” to climate change.
As Climate Fears Mount, Some Are Relocating Within the US - At first, the Ashland area of southern Oregon seemed like a great place for Mich and Forest Brazil to raise their kids: It had natural beauty, plenty of open space, and a family-friendly atmosphere. But after they moved there from the San Francisco Bay Area in 2015, high summer temperatures, water shortages, and wildfire smoke became regular features of their lives, forcing them to wear face masks well before the Covid-19 pandemic, and leading them to question whether the area was the right place for them. Then came September 8, 2020, when Forest Brazil stepped out of their rented house and had to cover his face because of smoke, dust, and debris from a fire—about 3 miles away—that was being water-bombed by fire-fighting planes and had provoked a panicky, high-speed evacuation on a nearby interstate. After five years of living with fire season, it was clear to him that this was no ordinary wildfire, so he grabbed his children, gathered a few important documents from the house, and called his wife at work to say they were getting out. They picked her up and checked into a hotel, where Forest received a call from their landlord. “The house is gone,” the landlord said, and forwarded a photo taken by a neighbor showing that their home had burned to the ground. That was the moment they knew they could no longer stay in a tinder-dry western state, and when they became climate migrants. Like a growing number of Americans, the Brazil family realized they could no longer live in a place where they faced soaring temperatures and worsening wildfires driven by climate change, and so they decided it was time to move to a less vulnerable part of the country. They chose New England, where Mich, a psychologist, got a transfer from her employer, the US Veterans Administration, to its office in White River Junction, Vermont. After more than a year of living in a series of temporary accommodations near their former Oregon home, they moved last October to an apartment in Enfield, New Hampshire—close to the Vermont border—where they have begun to rebuild their lives. After being forced out of their home, the Brazil family joined other Americans escaping the worsening impacts of climate change. These migrants include New Orleans residents who fled their city after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Houstonians who were driven out by flooding from Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Other communities have begun to disappear entirely. Residents of the coastal Louisiana community of Isle de Jean Charles, which sits just a foot or two above sea level, are being pushed out by rising seas. Inhabitants of coastal Native Alaskan villages such as Shishmaref and Newtok—where more intense storm surges caused by declining sea ice are eroding coasts weakened by melting permafrost—are being relocated.
Biden restores climate to NEPA, undoing Trump's efforts - The White House today completed reforms on how agencies implement the National Environmental Policy Act, effectively undoing one of the Trump administration’s most controversial environmental regulatory rollbacks.The Council on Environmental Quality finalized the first phase of planned changes to the rules governing NEPA, a core environmental law that guides federal scrutiny of major projects like pipelines, bridges and transmission lines. The action coincides with other announcements during what climate adviser Gina McCarthy dubbed Earth Week.“Restoring these basic community safeguards will provide regulatory certainty, reduce conflict, and help ensure that projects get built right the first time,” said CEQ Chair Brenda Mallory. “Patching these holes in the environmental review process will help projects get built faster, be more resilient, and provide greater benefits to people who live nearby.Today’s rule is nearly identical to what the administration proposed last fall and will guide how federal agencies consider climate change and greenhouse gas emissions when permitting projects (Greenwire, Oct. 6, 2021).CEQ revised the definition of environmental “effects” to include “indirect” or “cumulative” impacts. That means agencies will have to evaluate how projects could exacerbate climate change and burden communities already dealing with pollution.The Trump White House reversed decades of precedent by downplaying cumulative impacts, said Ted Boling, a partner at Perkins Coie and a former CEQ career staffer who helped lead the last administration’s rewrite.The new language also allows federal agencies to work with local communities to consider a wide array of project alternatives, something the Trump administration sought to limit.“This proposed change would give agencies the flexibility to determine the ‘purpose and need’ of a proposed project based on a variety of factors, and to work with project proponents and communities to mitigate or avoid environmental harms by analyzing common sense alternatives,” CEQ said in a release this morning.
Biden restores some environmental permitting requirements loosened by Trump --The Biden administration on Tuesday moved to restore some of the environmental regulations governing infrastructure project permitting that were rolled back by the Trump administration. The White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) is finalizing its “phase 1” changes governing the implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which requires environmental reviews for projects such as highways or pipelines. The Trump administration axed or changed several regulations governing how NEPA is implemented, making changes that it said would speed up the permitting process — though critics argued they came at the environment’s expense. The Biden administration this week targeted a few changes made under Trump that it described as causing agency challenges and sowing confusion with the general public. “Restoring these basic community safeguards will provide regulatory certainty, reduce conflict, and help ensure that projects get built right the first time,” CEQ Chair Brenda Mallory said in a statement. “Patching these holes in the environmental review process will help projects get built faster, be more resilient, and provide greater benefits — to people who live nearby.” In its 2020 NEPA regulatory rewrite, the Trump administration got rid of explicit requirements to consider an action’s “indirect” effects — those that happen later on or further removed, but are still reasonably foreseeable. It also got rid of the explicit requirement to consider its “cumulative” effects, which refers to how a project’s pollution may interact with other pollution sources to make some areas particularly polluted. Critics raised concerns about the impact of this change on communities that already face disproportionate pollution burdens and argued it could hinder the government’s ability to consider the effects of climate change. The Biden administration reaffirmed the need to consider the direct, indirect and cumulative impacts, according to a statement from the CEQ.
Biden Restores Climate to Environmental Law, Reversing Trump - — The Biden administration announced Tuesday that it is restoring parts of a bedrock environmental law, once again requiring that climate impacts be considered and local communities have input before federal agencies approve highways, pipelines and other major projects. The administration has resurrected requirements of the 50-year-old National Environmental Policy Act that had been removed by President Donald J. Trump, who complained that they slowed down the development of mines, road expansions and similar projects. The final rule announced Tuesday would require federal agencies to conduct an analysis of the greenhouse gases that could be emitted over the lifetime of a proposed project, as well as how climate change might affect new highways, bridges and other infrastructure, according to the White House Council on Environmental Quality. The rule, which takes effect in 30 days, would also ensure agencies give communities directly affected by projects a greater role in the approval process. Brenda Mallory, chairwoman of the council, described the regulation as restoring “basic community safeguards” that the Trump administration had eliminated. “Patching these holes in the environmental review process will help projects get built faster, be more resilient, and provide greater benefits to people who live nearby,” she said in a statement. The move comes as President Biden’s climate agenda faces headwinds from Congress and the courts. The president also is under pressure to boost oil production as a way to temper high gas prices across the United States. Last week the Interior Department said it would begin offering oil and gas drilling leases on public lands and waters, despite Mr. Biden’s campaign promise that he would end new leases. Senior administration officials this week maintained the leasing decision was necessary because of a court ruling, and said that it had also raised federal royalties that companies must pay to drill.mAdministration officials said the new rule would not have major immediate impacts since the Biden administration had already been weighing the climate change impacts of proposed projects. But it would force future administrations to abide by the process or undertake a lengthy regulatory process and possibly legal challenges to again undo it.
New Biden NEPA regs won't stop legal war over Trump overhaul - Environmental groups vowed to proceed with legal challenges to Trump-era rules for implementing the National Environmental Policy Act — even as the Biden administration unveiled new regulations.The White House Council on Environmental Quality announced yesterday that it had finalized the first of two phases of rulemaking on how federal agencies should comply with the landmark environmental law, which requires a “hard look” at the impact of major projects like highways, pipelines and oil and gas leases.The Biden administration’s first rule undoes some of the key changes put in place in 2020 under former President Donald Trump, allowing federal agencies to more broadly consider the climate risks of embarking on major federal projects.While opponents of the Trump administration’s changes say the Biden administration’s move is a positive step, those groups said they still plan to pursue pending legal challenges in federal court to restore the original decades-old NEPA rules.“The Biden administration has never said that it’s going to completely restore the 1978 regulations,” said Kym Hunter, a senior attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center, which is challenging the Trump rule in the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.“If they did so in a Phase 2 rule, that would be great, but until we see that, we’re going to still push this way,” Hunter said.Environmental groups had filed numerous challenges in courts across the country in 2020 in response to the Trump administration’s first-ever overhaul of NEPA rules, which the government said at the time would help streamline the federal permitting process.Opponents warned that the rules would undermine agencies’ environmental analyses.Under President Joe Biden, CEQ has called for court challenges to the Trump rules to be dismissed, citing the new administration’s intention to replace the standards. In a Feb. 18 brief in the 4th Circuit, the agency said the 2020 rules never took effect, and that environmental groups therefore could not challenge the standards.“If Plaintiffs someday encounter a situation where the 2020 Rule imminently harms their concrete interests, they can file a lawsuit at that time against that application of the 2020 Rule. But that situation has not occurred,” CEQ wrote in the court filing. The agency has not indicated to the courts whether it will seek to freeze the cases again after finalizing the first phase of its revisions. “I suspect that the Justice Department will like to see them stayed,” said Andrew Emrich, former counsel in DOJ’s Environment and Natural Resources Division under former President George W. Bush. He noted that keeping regulatory cases on ice is standard practice as a new administration seeks to change course from its predecessor.“My experience is that most courts are reluctant to wade into that sort of litigation unless you have a project being finalized under the contested portion of the 2020 regulations,” he said.
Republicans skewer 'woke' infrastructure climate guidance - Top Republican lawmakers today accused the Biden administration of misusing the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law to pursue a “woke” agenda.Transportation and Infrastructure Committee ranking member Sam Graves (R-Mo.) and Highways and Transit Subcommittee ranking member Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) said guidance issued today by the Transportation Department disincentivizes states from expanding roads and highways, in direct defiance of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.“Today, the Biden Administration doubled down on discouraging states from building new roads they may need, despite this policy being in direct conflict with what Congress intended in the recent infrastructure law,” Graves and Davis said in a joint statement.The Federal Highway Administration, a branch of the Transportation Department, today issued guidance to help states reduce transit-related carbon emissions, the largest source of climate pollution in the country (Climatewire, April 21).In addition to outlining which projects would be eligible to receive funding under the new $6.4 billion Carbon Reduction Program, the new guidance reinforced the contents of a contentious memo the agency issued last December outlining how states should generally spend the $110 billion in new infrastructure funding.The agency said the Dec. 16, 2021, memo continues to serve as an overarching framework to help states prioritize infrastructure projects. The memo recommended that states pursue a fix-it-first approach by repairing existing roads and bridges before building new ones.Top Republican senators have urged DOT to rescind the document, saying it attempted to enact a “wish list of policies” not outlined in the infrastructure law (E&E Daily, Feb. 10).“Instead of heeding Republicans’ calls for the Federal Highway Administration to rescind its December guidance, which they know is causing confusion among states, today’s announcement echoes the Administration’s earlier guidance and blatant misapplication of the IIJA,” Graves and Davis said.“The FHWA, Department of Transportation, and Biden Administration need to stop prioritizing their woke agenda over implementation of the infrastructure law as it was written,” the lawmakers said.
Biden admin asks health industry to slash GHG emissions - The Biden administration is asking health care providers and others in the industry to commit to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and take other actions to mitigate climate change.The Department of Health and Human Services today unveiled a pledge for hospitals, health systems, suppliers, pharmaceutical companies and others in the industry to sign and commit to the same level of emissions reductions the federal government has already promised for its own health systems, like Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals.“We need all players on the field confronting the climate crisis; sitting on the sidelines is not an option,” Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra said. “Every stakeholder group in America must step up, and collaboration across the public and private sector is key.”Specifically, the voluntary pledge involves a minimum commitment by organizations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2030 and to net zero by 2050, and to publicly report their progress. The pledge also asks signees to complete an inventory of their supply chain emissions, and to develop climate resilience plans for their facilities and communities. Signatories of the pledge will be honored at a White House ceremony in June.“Stakeholders in the U.S. Healthcare system,” the pledge, crafted by HHS, says, “must lead the response to this crisis through their example and through preparedness to meet the catastrophic and chronic challenges to come.” The health care sector contributes 8.5 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, meaning “they have a big role to play” in mitigating climate change, national climate adviser Gina McCarthy said in a statement.
Biden turns to E15 as next tool to keep gasoline prices under control. -It’s no secret that higher gasoline prices are a problem for a lot of folks, including everyday drivers, businesses and — maybe especially — the politicians who hear the complaints from the first two. Although prices at the pump have been trending higher for some time, they’ve really come to the forefront in the past several weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has stressed global energy markets and sent U.S. officials looking for any and all options to keep a lid on prices. In today’s RBN blog, we look at President Biden’s decision to allow the sale of E15 gasoline during the summer months, whether it’s likely to provide U.S. drivers significant relief from high prices this summer, and how global pressures are moving ethanol prices higher too.We’ve written a lot in recent weeks about the swift upward movement in global energy prices and their effects. We put those price increases in some historical context in Comfortably Numb, looked at how the International Energy Agency (IEA) is trying to address the oil-market turmoil in Road to Nowhere, examined what U.S. refineries have been importing from Russia in We’re Not Going to Take It, showed why U.S. E&Ps have been slow to ramp up oil production in the I Can’t Go For That (No Can Do) series, and illustrated how rising gasoline prices are making electric vehicles (EVs) more cost-competitive in One Shining Moment. The Biden administration has been very vocal in recent months about wanting to rein in crude oil and gasoline prices, hoping to keep the country’s economic recovery from stalling out. The U.S. economy grew by 5.7% in 2021, the highest rate since 1984, after shrinking by 3.4% in 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In addition to putting a bigger burden on drivers, the higher gasoline prices are also a significant contributor to rising inflation, which hit 8.5% in March, the quickest 12-month pace since 1981, according to the Labor Department. The Biden administration has pushed U.S. producers to ramp up output and made frequent use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to help bring supply and demand more into balance, at least in the short term. It announced a withdrawal of 180 MMbbl from the SPR on March 31 — an average of 1 MMbbl/d over six months — with barrels expected to hit the market around the start of May (see I Want to Break Free for details). The administration’s latest move has been to allow the use of E15 gasoline to be sold during the summer months. […] Altogether, the impact of the Biden administration’s move to allow E15 sales this summer will likely be negligible due to E15’s limited availability around the U.S., increasing costs for corn, and the much larger issue of global crude supply availability. Also, increasing costs for corn and ethanol could erode E15’s narrow price advantage over conventional gasoline.
How Biden’s ethanol order is sparking worries about pollution --The Biden administration’s decision to expand the availability of higher-ethanol fuel to provide relief at the pump to consumers is also likely to lead to new problems with pollution. The waiver removes restrictions on selling so-called E15 ethanol blends so that they can be purchased between June and September, which the administration argues could help lower fuel prices. But the restrictions were put in place over the summer months specifically because selling those blends, it is feared, would worsen air pollution when temperatures are high. Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Transport Campaign at the Center for Biological Diversity, uses a cocktail comparison to describe the effect of E15 blends on the environment. Ethanol is “basically vodka,” said Becker, and “when you mix an alcohol in with a mixture of gasoline or other volatile chemicals, it makes the mixture evaporate more readily.” Increasing evaporability, he said, “defeats everything that we’re trying to do to prevent more fuel from evaporating and getting into the air.” He added that it also increases nitric oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions. All of this is a negative for parts of the country that already have high ozone levels. “That really impacts ozone during the summer time, especially for areas that have high ozone levels,” said Margo Oge, who worked as director of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Transportation and Air Quality from 1994 to 2012. “I live in Los Angeles, this place can make you feel it,” she added. The risks are particularly high for older people and children with immature lungs, Becker said. “The administration shouldn’t have done this, and they know they shouldn’t have done this, because this program to reduce evaporative emissions and keep the more volatile gasoline mixtures away from the summer months, has been in operation for decades,” he said. “So EPA has long experience on this issue.”
Are EV tax credits back on the table? Maybe - President Joe Biden last year scored record funding for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, but his proposal to lower the sticker price for zero-emission cars and trucks all but died on the vine — threatening the pace of consumer adoption. Now, as Democrats seek to revive the president’s climate and spending bill and the cost of oil threatens fuel stability, a new window of opportunity may open for EV incentives. But securing full Democratic Party support may require abandoning a provision to boost EVs made by unionized labor, analysts say. In Biden’s original “Build Back Better Act,” consumers could receive up to $12,500 for electric automobiles made in the United States by a unionized workforce. Electric cars and trucks made by nonunionized shops were eligible for $7,500 in incentives. The bill also offered record incentives for used electric cars, and it would have removed a provision that renders automakers ineligible for existing credits after selling 200,000 EVs. The union provision became one of the major sticking points that helped tank the $1.7 trillion spending bill last year. Car companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Tesla Inc., whose workers are not unionized, slammed the legislation as discriminatory. And swing-vote moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), whose state is home to a Toyota manufacturing plant, said he could not support the provision, cementing the impasse. In recent weeks, Manchin has signaled he may be willing to revisit the legislation (E&E Daily, March 23). His interest in a slimmed-down version of the bill comes as Toyota, the world’s top automaker whose leadership recently has boosted electrification efforts, is about to be disqualified from receiving existing EV tax incentives by surpassing the 200,000-vehicle threshold (Climatewire, April 8). High fossil fuel prices and market instability caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also have reignited calls to boost EV sales and wean the United States off its dependence on foreign oil. Bobby Andres, a senior policy adviser for Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), said last month that Russia’s invasion is “spurring additional desire” to advance the committee’s energy provisions included in the bill. “We’re still extremely optimistic about the path forward for passing this package, and in preserving the bulk of what we had in December,” he said during a March forum presented by the American Council on Renewable Energy. “The opportune time to take action is likely in the next month or two.”
Lone Cypress, Proton Green Expand Helium Exploration in Southwest - Lone Cypress Energy Services LLC and Proton Green LLC announced a partnership to jointly launch a helium exploration and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project in the southwestern United States. Lone Cypress, an independent energy infrastructure developer, plans to begin the project with a helium drilling program near Proton Green’s St. Johns Gas Unit in Apache County, AZ. Once the helium gas processing facility is fully operational, Lone Cypress expects to begin construction on the carbon capture system. Pending permit approval, Proton Green could sequester emissions in a geologic formation within the St. Johns field with a storage capacity of more than 1 billion metric tons. Proton Green acquired the St. Johns Gas Unit in 2021 from Kinder Morgan CO2 Co. LLC, a Kinder Morgan Inc. subsidiary. The unit sits above one of the largest gaseous helium reservoirs in North America, with an estimated 33 Bcf in accessible reserves. Helium, which is typically extracted during natural gas production, is a nonrenewable resource, according to the Bureau of Land Management. The helium deposit at St. Johns is “highly unusual,” Proton Green said, as it does not contain any hydrocarbons. Instead, the deposit is mainly composed of carbon dioxide, which is planned to be sequestered following helium extraction, making the helium production process at St. Johns field a net-zero operation. Proton Green said it would be capable of reinjecting 22 mmt/y of carbon dioxide. The company also noted that it expects the helium produced at St. Johns through direct offtake agreements.
CO2 pipelines are coming. A pipeline safety expert says we’re not ready. - A year ago, a different kind of pipeline project was announced in the Midwest. Most pipelines pick up oil or gas from a well and deliver it to customers who burn it, emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This one would run almost in reverse. A company called Summit Climate Solutions planned to capture carbon dioxide from ethanol refineries in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, and then transport it via the proposed pipeline to a site in North Dakota where the CO2 would be buried deep underground. In the months since, two more companies have proposed similar CO2 pipeline projects in the Midwest, and another wants toexpand an existing pipeline in the South. The sudden boom is being driven by federal and state incentives for carbon capture and storage, or CCS, as well as a new low-interest loan program for CO2 pipelines passed by Congress last year and general support from the Biden administration to grow the “carbon management” industry in an effort to reduce carbon emissions. But as the number of pipeline proposals multiplies, a new report commissioned by the Pipeline Safety Trust, a nonprofit advocacy group, warns that CO2 pipeline regulations aren’t up to the task of keeping communities safe. “The country is ill prepared for the increase of CO2 pipeline mileage being driven by federal CCS policy,” writes report author Richard Kuprewicz, an independent pipeline safety consultant hired by the Pipeline Safety Trust. “Federal pipeline safety regulations need to be quickly changed to rise to this new challenge, and to assure that the public has confidence in the federal pipeline safety regulations.”The most concerning finding in the new report, according to Bill Caram, executive director of the Pipeline Safety Trust, is that regulations for assessing the potential impacts of a CO2 pipeline rupture were not developed specifically for CO2. Every pipeline developer has to identify potential “high consequence areas” where an accidental release would have significant negative impacts on human health or the environment. High consequence areas for oil and gas pipelines are well defined, but the report notes that CO2 has different considerations and likely a much larger radius of concern. CO2 is heavier than air, and a plume of CO2 can travel for miles, depending on wind and terrain, and settle into low-lying areas. The report warns that such an event would be difficult for people in the vicinity and first responders to detect, since CO2 is colorless, odorless, and nonflammable.“If I had to pick one finding of the report that would keep me up at night as a public safety advocate, it’s that one,” said Caram.
Counties taking action against eminent domain for carbon capture pipeline - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets— Todd McMichael looks out over pasture land that his family owns along the Sheyenne River expecting to see prairie chickens, deer and pheasants. When it greens up, there will be cattle grazing on the land near Kindred, North Dakota, that has never been tilled. What he doesn't want to see is workers sinking a pipeline into the ground. McMichael describes himself as becoming a "mouthpiece" for landowners in the path of the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline in North Dakota who object to the threat of eminent domain to gain right-of-way for the pipeline. He made a presentation in front of his county board in March, which unanimously adopted a resolution: "That the Richland County Commission officially opposes eminent domain for the Summit Carbon Solutions Pipeline within Richland County, North Dakota." Neighboring Sargent County has passed a similar resolution. McMichael says there are presentations soon to be made in Dickey and Emmons counties and conversations taking place with landowners in Burleigh and Morton counties. He said he and other landowners are making the case “knowing that it more than likely will not have the teeth … if the state decides to site this," McMichael said. "But we are hoping to get noticed in Bismarck; that a lot of landowners are against this project and how it’s being handled.” The pipeline will stretch west to Mercer and Oliver counties, where Summit plans to pump liquid carbon dioxide underground for permanent storage. The carbon dioxide is to come from 31 ethanol plants across five states connected by 2,000 miles of pipeline. Summit says the project would reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help keep the ethanol industry viable as place for farmers to market their corn. McMichael says he's in regular contact with about 75 people on the pipeline issue. He's also made connections with pipeline opponents in other states. Summit already has applied for permits in Iowa and South Dakota. The public dockets with the Iowa Utilities Board and South Dakota Public Utilities, where people can submit comments, are overwhelming against the pipeline. In Iowa, 26 counties touched by the pipeline have filed objections to carbon pipelines. There also have been efforts in the Legislature there to limit the Iowa Utilities Board's ability to grant eminent domain authority. In northern South Dakota, McPherson County has issued a moratorium on pipeline construction, but Bruce Mack, an organizer of opponents there, said that is part of county effort to upgrade its zoning and there are moratoriums against large hog barns and wind turbines also. But he added that there is "very stiff opposition" in the county. "Bottom line is, nobody wants this thing," Mack said."
Pipeline opponents to lawmakers: Do something to protect landowners - Iowa Capital Dispatch State lawmakers must act soon to protect landowners from the threat of eminent domain to build nearly 2,000 miles of liquid carbon pipelines across the state, pipeline opponents said Tuesday.It was the 100th day of the legislative session. That means lawmakers may no longer charge their daily expenses to the state – a financial incentive to wrap up for the year.But Republican leaders who have overwhelming control of the House and Senate are still deadlocked on Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds’ proposal to create state-funded private school scholarships. Several other bills, including the entire state budget, also hang in the balance.Proposals that would curb private companies’ use of eminent domain to build the pipelines have surfaced intermittently throughout the legislative session and culminated with a House budget billamendment that would delay final action by the Iowa Utilities Board on the pipeline proposals until February 2023. The pipelines would transport captured carbon from ethanol plants and other agricultural facilities to other states, where it would be pumped into the ground. The projects are expected to reap billions of dollars in federalOf the three pipeline proposals, the one by Summit Carbon Solutions is the furthest along. The IUB is poised to set a schedule that will culminate with a hearing on the plan and the company’s requests for eminent domain. Eminent domain allows government to take private land for a public purpose with compensation to the landowner set by the government.
Mills County says no to pipeline eminent domain - -- Mills County officials are the latest to speak out on the eminent domain issue as it pertains to a proposed carbon pipeline project.By unanimous vote Tuesday morning, the county's board of supervisors approved a letter to be sent to the Iowa Utilities Boards stating its objections to using the legal maneuver to acquire property for carbon capture projects, such as Summit Carbon Solutions' proposed Midwest Express pipeline. Plans call for more than 700 miles of pipeline across Iowa--including counties in KMAland--to channel CO2 to an underground location in North Dakota. Mills County Supervisors Chair Richard Crouch tells KMA News the board acted on a request from a local resident, Tom Honeyman, who urged the supervisors to voice their feelings on the matter. Crouch says the supervisors believe landowners have the right to protect their property."Once they start using this eminent domain for something like that," said Crouch, "what other issues are they going to allow it to be used for? I can see it for building roads, or maybe the county has to use it to gain some land to put in a bridge, or something. But for what they're using it for, I don't feel that it's right that they can come in and say, yep, they're using eminent domain, and that they can kind of do whatever they want."
How Louisiana became the carbon capture capital of the South -- Louisiana has become the carbon capture capital of the South, propelled by federal funding promoting carbon dioxide sequestration technology, a governor focused on reducing climate-changing emissions and the geological formations to make it all possible. During the past year the combination of those factors has led to $6.1 billion in announced carbon capture projects promising hundreds of new permanent jobs and thousands of construction jobs in Louisiana. "We're a natural fit for it," Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards said in an interview with USA Today Network. "This is where capital investment is going to continue to flow." On April 11 the electric utility Cleco announced the latest such project in Louisiana, a $900 million plan to capture and store underground 95% of the carbon released from its coal-fueled plan near Boyce. That follows the April 2021 announcement of Louisiana Green Fuels' $700 million biodiesel and carbon capture project at the Port of Columbia and the October 2021 announcement of Air Products' $4.5 billion "blue hydrogen" carbon capture complex in Ascension Parish. Louisiana Green Fuels said its plan is the first renewable diesel project in North America to achieve “negative” carbon emissions, while the Air Products complex will be the largest carbon capture project in the world. Last summer Republican U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy said he insisted on $8.6 billion for carbon capture technology and hubs be included in the $1.2 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure Act of which he was a primary architect. "If a (company) wants to lower its carbon profile, hopefully it would expand in Louisiana," he said then of the federal incentives promoting the industry. Read this: Louisiana lands largest carbon capture energy project in the world Last week Cassidy was in Rapides Parish for Cleco's announcement, where site selection specialist Bob Hess told the audience Cleco's project will capture the attention of a global audience. "You just heard that in corporate statements across the country companies are committed to addressing sustainability," Cassidy said in an interview with USA Today Network. "They are consciously searching and selecting sites where that is possible and profitable. "That is already happening here in Louisiana."
NextEra warns of 'outrageous' downside of Biden solar probe - NextEra Energy Inc.’s chief executive blasted the Commerce Department yesterday over its probe into solar panel imports and called on Congress to pass “Build Back Better” legislation to combat high energy prices. CEO John Ketchum described Commerce’s investigation as “silly,” arguing that the look at whether Chinese panel makers set up factories in Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs could lead to “outrageous outcomes” such as U.S. solar developers buying panels from China instead. Instead, he said the United States should embrace renewable energy “like never before,” calling it the best way to offset higher inflation, rising energy prices and electricity demand. The agency’s investigation is happening at a time when natural gas, coal and oil prices have increased, leaving solar and storage among the ways to alleviate inflationary pressures, Ketchum and other executives said. Commerce’s questions now make solar uncertain, as well, he said. Commerce’s solar probe “would make absolutely no sense in an environment where you have inflation, increasing commodity prices and the only deflationary product and source of generation that also achieves clean energy goals and creates a ton of American jobs,” Ketchum told Wall Street analysts in his first quarterly earnings call as CEO of NextEra. “Given the inflationary pressures on energy prices, now is the time to double down on renewables,” he said. Florida-based NextEra is the world’s largest renewable energy developer, and to that end, executives said yesterday that the company is able to cope with challenges. Yet company officials warned Wall Street that between 2.1 and 2.8 gigawatts’ worth of 2022 solar and storage projects may be pushed back into 2023.
MAPPED - US Wind Electricity Generation By State" -Wind power is the most productive renewable energy source in the U.S., generating nearly half of America’s renewable energy. But, as Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte details below, wind doesn’t blow fairly across the nation, so which states are contributing the most to U.S. wind energy generation? This map uses data from the EIA to show how much wind electricity different U.S. states generate, and breaks down wind’s share of total electricity generation in top wind power producing states.America’s wind energy generating states are all primarily located in the Central and Midwest regions of the nation, where wind speeds are highest and most consistent.Texas is the runaway leader in wind, generating over 92 Terawatt-hours of electricity during a year, more than the next three top states (Iowa, Oklahoma, and Kansas) combined. While Texas is the top generator in terms of wind-powered electricity, wind only makes up 20% of the state’s total electricity generation.Meanwhile, wind makes up a much larger share of net electricity generation in states like Iowa (58%), Oklahoma (35%), and Kansas (43%). For both Iowa and Kansas, wind is the primary energy source of in-state electricity generation after overtaking coal in 2019.The U.S. also has 10 states with no wind power generating facilities, all primarily located in the Southeast region.Wind power is one of the safest sources of energy and relies on one key factor: wind speeds. When analyzing minimum wind speeds for economic viability in a given location, the following annual average wind speeds are needed:
- Small wind turbines: Minimum of 4 meters per second (9 miles per hour)
- Utility-scale wind turbines: Minimum of 5.8 meters per second (13 miles per hour)
Unsurprisingly, the majority of America’s onshore wind turbine infrastructure is located in the middle of the nation, where wind speeds are highest.While wind energy only made up 0.2% of U.S. electricity generating capacity in 1990, it is now essential for the clean energy transition. Today, wind power makes up more than 10% of U.S. electricity generating capacity, and this share is set to continue growing.Record-breaking wind turbine installations in 2020 and 2021, primarily in the Central and Midwest regions, have increased U.S. wind energy generation by 30% to 135.1 GW.In 2020, the U.S. increased wind turbine capacity by 14.2 gigawatts, followed by another 17.1 gigawatts in 2021. This year is set to see another 7.6 GW come online, with around half of 2022’s added capacity located in Texas. After two years of record-breaking wind turbine installations, 2021’s expiration of the U.S. production tax credit is likely to dampen the rate of future installations.
You’ve heard of water droughts. Could ‘energy’ droughts be next? - Renewable energy prices have fallen by more than 70 percent in the last decade, driving more Americans to abandon fossil fuels for greener, less-polluting energy sources. But as wind and solar power continue to make inroads, grid operators may have to plan for large swings in availability.The warning comes from Upmanu Lall, a professor at Columbia Engineering and the Columbia Climate School who has recently turned his sights from sustainable water use to sustainable renewables in the push toward net-zero carbon emissions."Designers of renewable energy systems will need to pay attention to changing wind and solar patterns over weeks, months, and years, the way water managers do," he said. "You won't be able to manage variability like this with batteries. You'll need more capacity."In a new modeling study in the journal Patterns, Lall and Columbia Ph.D. student Yash Amonkar show that solar and wind potential vary widely over days and weeks, not to mention months to years. They focused on Texas, which leads the country in generating electricity from wind power and is the fifth-largest solar producer. Texas also boasts a self-contained grid that's as big as many countries', said Lall, making it an ideal laboratory for charting the promise and peril of renewable energy systems. Drawing on 70 years of historic wind and solar-power data, the researchers built an AI model to predict the probability of a network-scale "drought," when daily production of renewables fell below a target threshold. Under a threshold set at the 30th percentile, when roughly a third of all days are low-production days, the researchers found that Texas could face a daily energy drought for up to four months straight.Batteries would be unable to compensate for a drought of this length, said Lall, and if the system relied on solar energyalone, the drought could be expected to last twice as long—for eight months. "These findings suggest that energy planners will have to consider alternate ways of storing or generating electricity, or dramatically increasing the capacity of their renewable systems," he said.
Outdated Energy Grid Poses Existential Threat to the Renewable Revolution - -- Wind and solar energy in Texas are increasing rapidly and could soon replace coal pretty entirely, Fortune reported last month. There is only one catch, the article said: the grid isn’t ready for so much renewable energy.A similar message came from the solar industry association recently. Developers were ready to start work on the massive buildup of renewable energy capacity required for the Biden administration’s goal of 100-percent net-zero electricity by 2035, the industry said. The grid, however, wasn’t ready to take it in.“Quarter after quarter, our industry continues to break records with respect to diversifying our fuel supply and allowing our country to be energy-independent through renewables, but, unfortunately, the regulatory process and framework has not caught up,” the senior director of regulatory affairs and counsel at the Solar Energy Industries Association said in March.The electric grid was developed for an energy system supplied predominantly by fossil fuel sources. The coal or gas-fired power plants generate electricity, which is then transmitted via transmission lines and substations to the end consumer. However, wind and solar installations do not work this way, Solar Power World noted in a report on the grid problems of America’s transition.Wind and solar power installations do not produce power continuously, so it is difficult to maintain a constant flow of electricity across the grid with a lot of output from wind and solar farms—at least as it is designed now. This means that grid operators will need to upgrade. And this will cost a lot.California, for instance, recently approved $3 billion in financing for a total of 23 projects targeting upgrades and expansion of the grid over the next ten years as the state’s renewable energy output grows. And that’s just one state.Utilities in the United States are set to spend some $140 billion this year and next on reducing carbon emissions and upgrading the grid, the Wall Street Journal reported last week, citing research from the Edison Electric Institute. These investments are urgent, as the national grid becoming increasingly unreliable under the twin weight of aging infrastructure and the influx of wind and solar electricity.
FERC unveils transmission plan seen as key for renewables -The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission released a proposal yesterday that could play a pivotal role in modernizing the nation’s power grid and advancing the transition to clean energy. The commission plan offers some of the most significant federal changes in over a decade to the transmission planning process, which could help speed up the development of high-voltage power lines considered critical for adding more renewable energy to the grid. Approved in a bipartisan 4-1 vote at the commission’s monthly meeting, the proposed rules seek to address key challenges in the process for planning new transmission projects and for determining how to fairly allocate their costs. Once the commission has reviewed comments on the proposal, it may issue final rules, most likely by the end of the year. “Today’s proposed rules, if finalized, would facilitate much-needed transmission investment, improving the resilience of the grid, enhancing reliability and reducing power costs,” Chair Richard Glick, who voted in favor of the proposed rules, said during the meeting. “It’s also going to address our nation’s changing resource mix and the changing role of electricity in our society.” The proposal came during the commission’s first in-person meeting since February of 2020. In addition to advancing reforms on transmission, FERC issued an order focused on reforming wholesale electricity markets in light of changes in the types of energy resources that provide power for the grid. Staff at the independent agency also released an annual report on natural gas and electricity markets, highlighting last year’s record-high U.S. natural gas exports and the significant volumes of solar, wind and battery storage capacity that came online in 2021. Under the changes proposed for the transmission planning process, electric utilities that deliver power would be required to identify transmission needs driven by the changing mix of energy resources, with consideration for potential extreme weather events that could affect infrastructure. Transmission developers would be compelled to assess the need for new regional power lines over a 20-year time frame at a minimum. Transmission developers would also need to “fully consider” advanced tools that could make the flow of power more efficient and potentially reduce overall transmission costs, FERC staff said in a presentation on the proposal.
The Energy Transition Has A Major Metals Problem - The metals mining industry is at a crossroads. Key energy transition metals need trillions of U.S. dollars in investment if the world has any chance of advancing the transition to meet the Paris Agreement targets. At the same time, investors are backing out of carbon-intensive sectors, which metals mining undoubtedly is. Moreover, governments in developed nations with net-zero goals—including the U.S. Administration—want only “sustainable” new domestic mining to extract the minerals critical to support increased transportation electrification and renewable power generation aligned with their net-zero by 2050 targets. Currently, demand for key battery metals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese, and aluminum, is soaring, but supply is struggling to catch up.Supply comes from mining—a very carbon-intensive industry—but policymakers and investors need to acknowledge that there is one dirty industry at the beginning of the clean energy supply chain. Until other forms of totally clean energy become available—if ever—metals and metal mining will power the energy transition.Here’s where the dilemma for investors lies—they want Paris-aligned portfolios and have been reluctant to support a large carbon emitter like the metal mining industry. Yet, this industry needs support—including from bankers and investors—to raise capital to invest in new supplies of lithium and copper that will power the electric cars of environment-conscious investors.Analysts, investors, and some of the biggest miners say that the mining business needs to change, as does the dialogue between investors and mining companies, and policymakers and miners, if supply is to catch up with demand and not stall the energy transition because of a lack of key metals.“Obtaining adequate supplies of these vital transition resources will be severely hampered unless the mining business environment becomes more conducive to higher levels of investment,” Graham Kellas, Senior Vice President, Global Fiscal Research, and William Tankard, Principal Analyst, Copper Mine Costs, at Wood Mackenzie say.“Ultimately, success relies on governments and investors agreeing clear, predictable, stable, progressive terms and then sticking to them,” Kellas and Tankard noted.This vision could be overly optimistic, considering the lengthy and sometimes unproductive discussions about fiscal regimes between producers of those resources and governments holding the resources, WoodMac’s analysts say.“But if the world is to have any hope of achieving COP26 goals, some energy transition fantasies must become reality,” they conclude.Major developed economies are backing their metal mining industries to counter the Chinese dominance in key energy transition materials. Russia’s war in Ukraine has also led to concerns about a resource crunch in several key metals markets, including nickel and aluminum, considering that Russia is a major global supplier of both.U.S. President Joe Biden included last month strategic and critical materials necessary for the clean energy transition—such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and manganese for large-capacity batteries—in the Defense Production Act of 1950.“The United States shall, to the extent consistent with the promotion of the national defense, secure the supply of such materials through environmentally responsible domestic mining and processing; recycling and reuse; and recovery from unconventional and secondary sources, such as mine waste,” President Biden saidin a memo to the Secretary of Defense.The United States has acknowledged the need to move faster in securing key minerals domestically and from allies such as Australia; otherwise, America’s clean energy goals and hi-tech and automotive supply chains could depend on China. Demand for those minerals in the United States and globally is soaring, and even a possible economic slowdown will not significantly derail that demand. Even if a recession were to materialize in parts of the world—due to rampant inflation, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and rising interest rates—this would not give battery metals producers breathing space to bring on necessary supply in a timely manner, Julian Kettle, Senior Vice President, Vice Chair Metals and Mining, at Wood Mackenzie, saidthis week.Supply shortages could actually grow because of more problems in getting investment during an economic slowdown, he argues.
How mining for clean energy could undermine Biden's EJ goals - The Biden administration has said it is activating all the levers of government to advance environmental justice for people of color. However, one of President Joe Biden’s own policies for climate action might challenge his commitment to racial equity. Earlier this month, Biden invoked a wartime law to free up federal funds for domestic mining activities for five metals sought by manufacturers of zero-carbon energy products: lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and manganese. It was a move that, if successful, could help open mines across the country to support the production of electric vehicles and other technologies that are needed to reduce the country’s use of fossil fuels. But these zero-carbon products aren’t always clean to Native Americans who live near the mining projects. Finance company MSCI estimates the majority of U.S. reserves for cobalt, lithium and nickel are located within 35 miles of Native American reservations. Some Indigenous activists are concerned that the Biden administration is encouraging a mining boom that could upend their way of life by degrading sacred sites and potentially threatening groundwater drinking sources. One proposed mine — Lithium Americas Corp.’s Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada — could present Biden’s most immediate conflict between the mineral needs of the energy transition and environmental justice. On Friday, Lithium Americas formally applied to the Energy Department for a government-backed loan to finance some of its activities at the mine. Earl Hatley, a member of the Abenaki Nation of Missisquoi, is one of the Indigenous activists frustrated with the Biden administration. Hatley recalled watching people he knew suffer from exposure to heavy metals that leached into the soil near Indigenous communities. Hatley grew up in Oklahoma and for more than a decade fought for the cleanup of the Tar Creek Superfund site, a stew of toxic waste created by a legacy of lead and zinc mining. Now he’s worried that the rush for clean energy-related minerals could have a similar effect as heavy metal mining. “Joe Biden, you come live here for a year and drink the water and then tell us you want more mining,” said Hatley, who also serves as chair of the Indigenous Caucus for the grassroots activist organization Western Mining Action Network.
New Mexico’s Democrats offer an energy lesson for the party - Democrats who hold power in one of largest oil-producing states in the U.S. have some advice for the Biden administration on how to craft a winning energy policy: Don’t pit renewables and fossil fuels against each other. It’s a strategy Democrats in New Mexico have developed almost as a political necessity as they try to keep the state solidly blue even as it has quietly become the second-largest oil producer in the country behind GOP stronghold Texas. That doesn’t mean New Mexico Democrats have shunned clean energy. The state has used its ample sunlight and windy landscape to triple its renewable energy since 2019, and it’s aiming to keep that momentum — but not at the expense of its prolific oil and gas fields. President Joe Biden has adopted a similar tack this year as he’s cajoled the oil and gas industry to increase production to ease the high energy prices that are now the prime U.S. inflation drivers. And he’s stuck to his climate change message, saying that only a shift to clean energy will protect consumers from the perils of the global energy market and the rising temperatures caused by fossil fuels. Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and the party’s lawmakers in the state won early raves from environmental groups for their support for renewable energy and climate policies, while the Democrats have at the same time acknowledged the oil industry’s outsize influence on their state budget. New Mexico Republicans have been hobbled by intraparty squabbling over how closely to hew to former President Donald Trump and his America First message. The state’s Democrats, though, worry that national party stalwarts and environmental groups’ attacks on fossil fuels could alienate potential swing voters. “I recognize our dependency on extractive industries runs really deep,” said New Mexico state Rep. Angelica Rubio, who represents an oil patch district in the Permian Basin geological formation that stretches from West Texas into New Mexico. “Environmentalists can be out of touch that a typical person here in New Mexico is trying to put food on their table and thinking about how to pay their bills,” said Rubio. “When they hear a [call for an oil] ban, that means an end of the job. My effort as a legislator has been to find what the middle ground is.”
Insurers invested $536B in fossil fuel interests — analysis - Insurance companies invested more than $536 billion in fossil fuel interests in 2019, even as they paid damages for climate-accelerated catastrophes, according to a report released yesterday by the California Department of Insurance. The report examined about 1,200 insurance companies, all of which operate in California, often in addition to other parts of the United States. Large insurers use gains from investments to help pay losses. But California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara argued that dollars invested in fossil fuel companies are a growing risk, given climate change. “We need more climate-focused investments to solve our climate crisis, including from insurance companies that must do more to protect consumers and the environment,” Lara said in a statement. “This report is part of my continued comprehensive strategy to address insurance companies’ fossil fuel exposures and hold them accountable while letting consumers judge these companies’ progress on climate action for themselves.” The report is the most exhaustive study of fossil fuel investments by insurance companies ever done by any U.S. state, Lara said. It used S&P Global’s Trucost Environmental data, which includes climate and financial data sets, along with additional publicly available data, according to an aide for Lara. The report looked at information from 2018 and 2019, the most recent years with data available, and found that insurance companies increased their fossil fuel investments from $477 billion in 2018 to $536 billion in 2019. The American Property Casualty Insurance Association, a trade group for the insurance industry, said that the report “provides useful data but should not be used exclusively in evaluating the climate-related investment or commitments of any particular company. Also, this report should not be taken as a company’s current investment strategy given the lag in reporting time cycles.” The report comes as Californians deal with the severe impacts of climate change, including catastrophic wildfires, extreme storms and drought. Nationwide, the number of natural disasters causing $1 billion or more in damages has risen steadily for two decades, the report said. The report notes that the 2018 deadly Camp Fire in California triggered insured losses of $12 billion, which broke records at the time as the costliest event ever globally. Last year’s severe winter storm in Texas, however, is expected to cost $19 billion. “With losses mounting, insurers are under pressure to no longer avoid addressing the impact of a changing climate on their underwriting, pricing, investment decisions and bottom lines,” the report said. “Increased disclosure can help regulators assess the effectiveness of insurer actions to mitigate insurance risk due to climate change.” The report details investments in fossil fuel extraction, which it says shows exposure to potential stranded assets if governments implement policies to transition away from fossil fuels. Companies in 2019 had $96.8 billion invested in fossil fuel extraction activities, compared to $78.5 billion a year earlier. Those numbers are included in the larger fossil fuel investment totals.
Northern Indiana residents doubt outcome of coal ash cleanup -- Some northern Indiana residents remain skeptical that communities in the area will be free of contamination from toxic coal ash, despite a renewed commitment by government agencies and one of the state’s biggest energy companies to clean up polluted sites and transition to renewable energy sources. Last month, the Environmental Protection Agency announced the Northern Indiana Public Service Company would pay nearly $12 million under an agreement called a consent decree to continue the cleanup of coal ash soil contamination in the Town of Pines Groundwater Plume Superfund site. The consent decree reflects an agreement between NIPSCO, the United States and the state of Indiana to have NIPSCO complete the removal of contaminated coal ash used as yard fill on properties in Pines, according to Nick Meyer, vice president of state communications for NIPSCO. In addition, the money will be used to reimburse the EPA and the Indiana Department of Environmental Management for any costs the agencies accrued regarding the Superfund site. NIPSCO also has announced it will shift the plant responsible for the contamination of Pines from coal to renewable energy. But some don’t think these measures are enough. “I think a lot of people are distracted by the impending transition of the site and the promise of renewable energy and what is already coming online. All the while, NIPSCO has a compounding disaster at the site and this legacy issue in Pines,” said Ashley Williams, executive director of environmental justice group Just Transition Northwest Indiana. “For us, within a just transition — when we’re talking about the transition to renewable energy, building healthier communities and transitioning to the renewable energy economy of tomorrow — none of that matters unless these lingering injustice and citizen environmental harms are addressed.”
DEP Urges Public to Report Missing Portable Nuclear Gauge – The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is requesting assistance in the search for a missing portable nuclear gauge containing sealed sources of radioactive material that belongs to KAKS and Company LLC of Harleysville, PA. An image of the gauge is included at the end of this press release. Anyone who finds the gauge should not handle it directly, but rather maintain distance, limit time of proximity, and immediately contact local authorities or the DEP’s Southeast Regional Office at 484-250-5900. A trained individual will recover the gauge.“It is critical for anyone who has information about the lost nuclear gauge to contact local authorities or DEP,” DEP Bureau of Radiation Protection Director David Allard said. “As long as the device is not tampered with or damaged, it presents no hazard to public safety.”The gauge had been secured in a vehicle stolen in Philadelphia. When the vehicle was recovered, the gauge was no longer inside and may have been discarded. If the gauge is badly damaged or was struck by a vehicle, there is potential for damage to the radioactive source and spread of contamination. KAKS and Company LLC is licensed by DEP to possess and use the gauge. This type of nuclear gauge is commonly used to evaluate the properties of building and road-bed materials at construction sites throughout the commonwealth. The radioactive material contained within the gauge is believed to be in a safe, shielded position. However, it may have been damaged after the theft of the vehicle.
Efforts underway to save Palisades nuclear plant from closing — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and state energy regulators now see a path to keep the Palisades Power Plant in Van Buren County open beyond its scheduled May 31 closing date in hopes of preserving hundreds of jobs and a major clean energy resource. Officials hope to directly subsidize and keep the nuclear plant open through federal infrastructure funding. The U.S. Department of Energy released guidance on Monday for the $6 billion Civil Nuclear Credit Program, which will allow operators of uneconomic power plants to apply for funding and avoid closing before their operating licenses expire. While it is scheduled to close at the end of next month, Palisades’ operating license lasts through 2031. “The State of Michigan has already had numerous conversations with the plant owner … and leading nuclear operators who may be interested in purchasing the plant and keeping it operational through its 2031 licensure date.” However, it remains unclear whether the state’s effort to keep Palisades open is successful. As recently as last week, Palisades owner Entergy Corp. detailed job losses associated with the May 31 closure, telling state officials that 184 jobs would be eliminated “on or around” June 24. The company is scheduled to transfer ownership of the plant to Holtec International, which would oversee the nearly 20-year decommissioning process. Entergy Spokesperson Nicholas Culp this morning aknowledged contact with government officials about keeping Palisades open beyond May 31, but he said the company remains focused “on the safe and orderly shutdown of the facility in May, followed by transfer of the plant to Holtec Decommissioning International for decommissioning under the terms of a previously executed contract consistent with our announced strategy to exit the merchant power business.” Culp added that while Entergy will entertain proposals from potential new buyers and operators, no such formal proposal has been made “that provides an opportunity for continued operations and that eliminates the substantial financial and operational risks associated with unwinding the existing contract with Holtec. We remain on schedule for the plant’s permanent shutdown on our previously announced timeline and currently have no additional comment about the outreach we received.”
Biden announces $6B to bail out nuclear plants at risk of closure - The Biden administration will put $6 billion toward saving distressed nuclear power plants from closure, viewing the power source as another carbon-free alternative to fossil fuels. On Tuesday, the Department of Energy announced a new bidding process for submissions under the new Civil Nuclear Credit program. The bidding will be open to operators of plants that would otherwise be at imminent risk of shutdown. The Biden administration has set a goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and called recently closures of commercial reactors a major barrier to reaching that goal. Reactors that have already announced closure plans will be prioritized in the first round of awards. Twelve reactors have closed before their licenses expired in the last decade, which the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects will reduce U.S. nuclear capacity by 10.5 gigawatts. “U.S. nuclear power plants contribute more than half of our carbon-free electricity, and President Biden is committed to keeping these plants active to reach our clean energy goals,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm. “We’re using every tool available to get this country powered by clean energy by 2035, and that includes prioritizing our existing nuclear fleet to allow for continued emissions-free electricity generation and economic stability for the communities leading this important work.” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), the chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, praised the decision, saying in a statement that “quick, decisive action is what we needed from the Department, and that is what they have delivered by standing up the Civil Nuclear Credit Program.” “This program will keep our reactors operating, preserving American jobs, reducing emissions, and bolstering our energy security,” Manchin added. “We have taken the reliability and resiliency of our nuclear fleet for granted and it is about time we acted to preserve these vital assets.” The announcement comes in the wake of Germany shutting down all of its own nuclear reactors, which came shortly before an international energy crunch and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Supreme Court weighs Biden's Hanford nuclear challenge - Supreme Court justices yesterday appeared skeptical of calls to dismiss the Biden administration’s challenge of a Washington state law that expanded benefits to federal contractors at the Hanford nuclear waste site. The federal government is seeking to block a 2018 state law that presumed current and former workers who developed certain illnesses after working at the decommissioned Hanford Site were eligible for compensation (Energywire, March 22). In oral arguments yesterday in United States v. Washington, the justices’ questions centered on whether the high court could consider the substance of the case at all. The high court has rigorous standards to “moot out” a case, said Chief Justice John Roberts. “I don’t want to suggest that the Legislature is engaging in some kind of a gambit,” Roberts said. “Maybe it was a sincere effort to make our workload better, but the case is not totally out of any significance at all, I don’t think.” At issue in the case is Washington’s H.B. 1723, which was recently replaced by S.B. 5890, a broader law that expanded access to benefits to federal contract workers at other federal nuclear waste sites in the state. The second law was signed by the governor after the justices had already agreed to hear the challenge to H.B. 1723. Justice Clarence Thomas kicked off questioning yesterday by asking what financial interests the Biden administration still has now that the new state law is on the books. “We think there is at least an open question whether some of the workers would be covered,” said U.S. Deputy Solicitor General Malcolm Stewart. Supreme Court precedent says that a case is not moot if there is still a “reasonable possibility” that the federal government could benefit from a ruling, he said. The high court also has an interest in deciding the case to dissuade other parties from using “post certiorari maneuvers” to prompt the justices to dismiss a petition after it had been accepted, Stewart said.
Dark money helped Ohio utilities subsidize coal plants, delaying action on climate change at ratepayers’ expense - The biggest corruption scandal in Ohio’s history happened right under people’s noses, and much of the law at its center remains on the books.It has been three years since Ohio lawmakers first introduced the power plant bailout legislation that is now at the heart of the largest corruption case in state history.Since House Bill 6 passed in 2019, an FBI investigation has revealed a $60 million bribery scheme, leading to extensive admissions by FirstEnergy — a utility company central to the scandal — and guilty pleas from three defendants in a federal criminal case. Beyond that, though, accountability has been slow to come, and HB 6, which also gutted the state’s clean energy standards, remains on the books. The HB 6 scandal shows how utility, fossil fuel and nuclear interests have framed Ohio energy policy, even when that policy conflicts with voter preferences on renewable energy. “In Ohio, in the wake of HB 6, we’re seeing just how tied together energy issues are with the state of our democracy,” said Neil Waggoner, Ohio senior campaign representative for the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign. In his view, the scandal didn’t just bail out nuclear and coal plants or roll back clean energy standards. “It’s a direct assault on government accountability and transparency.” Even after the corruption was exposed in 2020, the state’s elected leaders didn’t fully investigate and fix the problem, Waggoner continued. Instead, key people involved in HB 6 stayed in office. House Speaker Larry Householder, who was arrested by the FBI in July 2020, won re-election and remained in office until June 2021. In fact, all 45 lawmakers who backed HB 6 and were up for election in November 2020 won their races. “They dug in and fought to maintain the status quo,” Waggoner said.“That’s all part of this broader question of why is it that we give outsized influence to special interests in our politics,”. A small number of very wealthy individuals and corporations “have basically monopolized climate policy for generations now.” And, he adds, “they are very open about what they are doing.” The Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission set the stage for even higher levels of unreported political spending through for-profit or nonprofit dark money organizations. But most companies who make political contributions likely expect favorable treatment from officials they back, Brown noted. FirstEnergy and others who gave to dark money groups stood to gain a lot from HB 6. The law earmarked about $1 billion in statewide ratepayer subsidies for two former FirstEnergy nuclear plants over the course of six years. The subsidies were repealed in 2021. Yet they arguably helped advance the bankruptcy for FirstEnergy Solutions (now Energy Harbor) after other efforts to get coal and nuclear plant bailouts fell short. FirstEnergy also benefitted from recession-proofing provisions that pegged revenues to 2018 levels. Other Ohio utilities also benefited. HB 6 codified subsidies for two 1950s-era coal plants, known as the OVEC plants. Those subsidies have cost roughly $240 millionsince 2020 began, while adding approximately 23 million tons of greenhouse gases to the air. The Ohio House eventually expelled Householder in June 2021. He faces a trial on criminal charges next year, along with lobbyist Matt Borges, who previously chaired the Ohio Republican Party. Two other individuals and the dark money groupGeneration Now filed guilty pleas. Another co-defendant, lobbyist Neil Clark, died of an apparent suicide last year after writing a tell-all book that, among other things, claims Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine received a $5 million bribe from FirstEnergy. FirstEnergy has also implicated the former chair of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, Sam Randazzo. DeWine was apparently told that Randazzo had close ties to FirstEnergy before the appointment in early 2019. Randazzo denied wrongdoing but resigned in November 2020, days after FBI agents searched his home. Before then, Randazzo helped shape HB 6. And he steered the PUCO’s actions on calls for repeal and a full regulatory investigation.
An Oil Billionaire Is Trying to Crush Nina Turner in Ohio – A super PAC bankrolled by a fossil fuel magnate is launching last-minute ads to try to crush the congressional candidacy of a leading proponent of a Green New Deal as scientists warn that oil and gas emissions are making the planet unlivable. If successful, the gambit would deliver an intimidating message from the fossil fuel industry to other Democratic candidates pressing the government to address the climate crisis.One month after Samson Energy mogul Stacy Schusterman poured $2 millioninto Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) PAC, the group purchased TV adsstarting Monday to boost Representative Shontel Brown (D-OH) in her primary campaign rematch against former Ohio state senator Nina Turner in a newly redrawn Cleveland congressional district. The primary election date is May 3.Last year, DMFI PAC spent $1.9 million attacking Turner and promoting Brown, helping the latter win the seat in a special election. The group also spent $1.4 million attacking Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) during his 2020 presidential campaign.Turner, who cochaired Senator Sanders’s 2020 campaign, has been campaigning for a Green New Deal and pressing the Biden administration to ban fracking. Brown has declined to cosponsor some of House Democrats’ most high-profile climate legislation, including the Climate Emergency Act — even after United Nations scientists’ recent dire warning about the crisis.While Brown’s campaign website says she supports “the principles laid out in the Green New Deal,” she has not cosponsored the measure in Congress. Schusterman chairs Oklahoma-based Samson Energy, whose website describes it as a company that “was formed to allow the Schusterman family to remain in the oil and gas exploration and production business following their sale of Samson Investment Company in 2011.” The company has been one of the country’s largest per-well emitters of greenhouse gas emissions.
Marcellus Natural Gas Conduit Adelphia Begins Partial Service on Expansion Adelphia Gateway LLC has started partial service on its brownfield natural gas pipeline expansion project moving Marcellus Shale supply to growing demand markets in eastern Pennsylvania and beyond, pipeline flow data shows. Adelphia started flowing on Monday, moving natural gas supply from the Quakertown meter station through the Marcus Hook facility to the Tilghman meter. Receipts at the Texas Eastern Transmission Co. West Rockhill interconnect are at around 8.1 MMcf/d, while deliveries at Peco Energy Co.’s Tilghman interconnect are at 8 MMcf/d, according to Wood Mackenzie. However, flows are expected to ramp up, Wood Mackenzie analyst Devin Cao said. “This partial service will deliver 31.5 MMcf/d from the West Rockhill receipt to the Peco-Tilghman delivery point,” which is subscribed by Peco and parent company Exelon Corp. The Adelphia Gateway Phase II project is around 93% completed, with most of the remaining work still to be done at the Quakertown compressor station, Cao said. The meter station portion of the Quakertown facility already is operational and flowing gas to the south zone. FERC granted Adelphia a certificate for the expansion project in late 2019 in a 2-1 vote after it secured the permits needed to begin construction from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. It started pre-construction activities in the fall of 2020. Part of the pipeline was already moving gas to two power plants in Northampton County, PA, but the expansion repurposes the southern segment to move additional volumes. The system – which once delivered oil to a refinery near Philadelphia – has been designed to move 175,000 Dth/d on Zone North A, 350,000 Dth/d on Zone North B and 250,000 Dth/d on Zone South. In January, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted Adelphia an extension until June 2023 to complete the entire project. The pipeline developer cited regulatory delays, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain issues in its request for an extension. However, Cao said it seems more likely that the project would come online before the end of this year.
Monday Deadline for Comments on PA Gas Pipeline Expansion - Pennsylvanians have until Monday to submit public comments on a draft Environmental Impact Statement for a gas pipeline expansion in Northeastern Pennsylvania. Some critics of the project say the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has not properly considered all the effects of the proposal.The Regional Energy Access Expansion, by the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, would add 22 miles of pipeline in Luzerne County and nearly 14 miles in Monroe County.Jessica O'Neill, senior attorney for the group PennFuture, said the draft Environmental Impact Statement does not go far enough in discussing how additional pipelines would affect natural resources."This pipeline would cut across really sensitive, exceptional value waterways, and we don't think the draft EIS does enough to look at the cumulative impact of the cuts through these waterways," O'Neill explained. "There's endangered and protected species; there are a lot of people that rely upon the high-quality waterways for their living."The public comment deadline is 5 p.m. Monday, and comments can be submitted online. A spokesperson for FERC said the commission will address issues raised in the comments and provide recommendations in a final Environmental Impact Statement in July.O'Neill added it is important for Pennsylvania residents, especially from the affected counties, to make their views known. She pointed out they will have information unique to their communities the agencies involved might not know about."That's how we can make sure that even if these pipelines are built, that appropriate measures are put in place to protect waterways," O'Neill stressed. "And that the permits have appropriate protective requirements and conditions and mitigation requirements, to try to preserve our high-quality streams and wetlands." Pennsylvania is the nation's second-largest natural gas producer. The proposed pipeline route also crosses habitat for threatened and endangered plant and animal species, including white-fringed orchid, Indiana bat, northern long-eared bat, timber rattlesnake and bog turtle.
Children and adults call for environmental justice review of proposed Newark power plant - Some residents of Newark's Ironbound section oppose a natural gas-fired backup power plant proposed by the Passaic Valley Sewerage Commission for its treatment plant on Newark Bay. They held a protest at a community garden on Ferry Street on Wednesday.
Steeper basis discounts hit Eastern Gas South as Appalachian production climbs - S&P Global - Peak-summer basis prices at Appalachia's benchmark hub Eastern Gas South have fallen to an eight-week low in recent trading as gas production across the region shows signs of upward momentum. Calendar-month prices for June, July and August 2022 are now trading at roughly $1/MMBtu discount to the Henry Hub, making for the widest spread since late February when a series of production freeze-offs fueled a steep rise in benchmark US gas prices, S&P Global Commodity Insights data shows. After rallying alongside Henry Hub earlier this spring, prices at Eastern Gas South appeared to dislocate from the US benchmark recently as Henry Hub summer prices tested historic highs at over $8/MMBtu. Since mid-April, the Eastern Gas South peak-summer strip has widened its discount to Henry Hub by roughly 25 cents, or about 30%, as traders began to doubt the sustainability of $6-$7/MMBtu gas prices in Appalachia this summer. The widening forward price spread from Eastern Gas to Henry Hub also comes as Appalachian Basin gas production shows modest but steady signs of growth. In April, production across the Marcellus and Utica shales has edged up to an average 33.2 Bcf/d, or its highest since January, S&P Global data shows. Based on recent upstream activity, production could be expected to continue growing this summer. Drilling, completions In March, operators across the Appalachian Basin drilled an estimated 89 new wells, hitting a pandemic-era high not seen since April 2020, data from the US Energy Information Administration shows. While well completions in March were unchanged at 95, the monthly numbers appear to have plateaued recently at close to prepandemic levels, the Drilling Productivity Report data shows. While well completions in March were unchanged at 95, the monthly numbers appear to have plateaued recently at close to prepandemic levels, the Drilling Productivity Report data shows. In the week ended April 20, the drilling rig count across the Marcellus and Utica shales edged up to 53 and is now just two rigs shy of a 30-month high recorded in March, data published by Enverus shows.Recent upstream investments could be a bullish indicator for Appalachian gas production this summer – a topic that is likely to be addressed by the region's producers on upcoming first-quarter earnings calls.According to an updated forecast published by S&P Global, combined output from the Marcellus and Utica could top 34 Bcf/d by later this summer and potentially reach 34.5 Bcf/d by late 2022.’
Natural gas pipeline future in doubt after SCOTUS rejection - The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a St. Louis-based natural gas company’s appeal of a lower court’s decision that could close a pipeline that runs through parts of Illinois and Missouri.The court rejected Spire Inc.’s appeal without comment. Spire President Scott Smith pledged to continue fighting to keep the 65-mile (105-kilometer) pipeline up and running.The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted approval for the pipeline in 2018 and it became fully operational in 2019. The Spire STL Pipeline connects with another pipeline in western Illinois and carries natural gas to the St. Louis region, where Spire serves around 650,000 customers.The Environmental Defense Fund sued in 2020, raising concerns that the pipeline was approved without adequate review. In June, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled that FERC had not adequately demonstrated a need for the project, vacating approval of the pipeline.EDF attorney Erin Murphy said in a statement Monday that the lower court ruling found “serious flaws” in FERC’s approval, “including failing to assess the harms to ratepayers and landowners.”As the case played out in court, FERC last year issued a temporary certificate allowing the pipeline to remain operational. The temporary order continues to stand while the agency considers Spire’s appeal to FERC seeking new approval of the pipeline. “We are confident that when people have an opportunity to review the proven benefits of the STL Pipeline, they will agree that there is a critical need to keep this infrastructure fully operational to ensure continued access to reliable, affordable energy for families and businesses in the greater St. Louis region,” Smith said in a statement.
U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry Puts Natural Gas on Notice - U.S. climate envoy John Kerry on Thursday put natural gas on notice, saying the world’s reliance on the fossil fuel should be limited to potentially a decade, unless its greenhouse gas emissions are fully captured. Though natural gas burns cleaner than coal when used to generate electricity, it should not be part of a long-term climate strategy without emission-control technology, Kerry said in an interview Thursday with Bloomberg Television.“If you can capture the emissions -- literally, genuinely -- then you’re reducing the problem,” said Kerry, the U.S. special presidential envoy for climate. “We have to put the industry on notice: You’ve got six years, eight years, no more than 10 years or so, within which you’ve got to come up with a means by which you’re going to capture, and if you’re not capturing, then we have to deploy alternative sources of energy”Gas ban 2.0: Building wars Across the U.S., government officials, utilities and the natural gas industry are unveiling road maps that could change how buildings derive their heat over the coming decades, a shift with major consequences for emissions. The blueprints wrestle with the same question: Will natural gas and its alternatives be the fuel of choice or will electricity? The tug of war between the two visions could decide how — or if — the nation manages to scale down a top source of greenhouse gases for many cities and states. It also could influence the trajectory of U.S. natural gas and how it is used. Advertisement For the gas industry and its allies, low-emissions heating can be achieved by still using gas and gradually blending in lower-carbon substitutes like hydrogen. But many climate activists and progressives are aiming to grant electric technologies the overwhelming share of the market, while banning the use of gas boilers, water heaters and stoves. This year, the battle has heated up with competing legislative plans and industry road maps. It remains unclear which technologies will win and ultimately dominate. Nationally, natural gas and electricity currently are neck and neck as sources for building heat, with each one providing roughly 40 percent of the market. “We’re just starting down this road,” “We’re still not sure what the future holds.” In Maryland and New York, Democratic legislators tried to push through this year what would have been the first statewide fossil fuel bans for new buildings — but fell short amid resistance. Other states are contemplating a more limited step of ending free natural gas hookups in new homes. On Capitol Hill, progressive Democrats also are urging President Joe Biden to guarantee a federal buyer for millions of electric heat pumps. They say that could help Europe disconnect from Russian gas and, in passing, make it cheaper for Americans to ditch gas heat. Across much of the country, however, there are already multiple laws backed by the natural gas industry that have helped lock in the fuel’s role in heating buildings. Twenty states prevent cities from banning gas use in buildings. Ten others prohibit electric utilities from encouraging customers to ditch gas. The industry is adding to that foundation with road maps that eye greater use of new fuels such as “renewable natural gas” and hydrogen for building heat. In February, for example, the American Gas Association published a road map called “Net-Zero Opportunities for Gas Utilities” in which low-carbon gases would supply anywhere from 39 percent to 58 percent of the necessary emissions reductions. “Through this work we’re really hoping to elevate the conversation beyond just a simple — is it electric versus gas?” said Richard Meyer, AGA’s vice president of energy markets, analysis and standards.
US Natural Gas Output Seen Climbing in May on Strength of Haynesville, Appalachia - Natural gas production is set to rise more than 700 MMcf/d from April to May on the strength of output growth from the Haynesville Shale, and from the Appalachian and Permian basins, updated projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show.Modeling trends from seven key U.S. onshore producing regions, EIA said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) Monday that it expects total natural gas output from these areas to climb 721 MMcf/d from April to May, reaching slightly under 91 Bcf/d.Of the seven regions — the Anadarko, Appalachian and Permian basins, as well as the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara formations — only the Anadarko is expected to see natural gas output decrease from April to May. EIA said the Anadarko region is on pace for a 15 MMcf/d month/month decline. Appalachia (up 197 MMcf/d), the Bakken (up 27 MMcf/d), the Eagle Ford (up 110 MMcf/d), the Haynesville (up 245 MMcf/d), the Niobrara (up 3 MMcf/d) and the Permian (up 154 MMcf/d) will all contribute output growth for the period, according to the DPR modeling.The latest domestic production forecasting comes as Nymex futures have soared to nearly $8/MMBtu, with analysts pointing to supply adequacy fears as a key catalyst driving prices higher. Only time will tell how much the pace of domestic output growth is able to quell market concerns over refilling storage and accommodating summer cooling demand.Oil production from the seven regions, meanwhile, is set to increase by 132,000 b/d month/month to around 8.65 million b/d, EIA said. The Permian (up 82,000 b/d), Eagle Ford (up 26,000 b/d) and the Bakken (up 17,000 b/d) are set to contribute most of the oil productivity gains. More modest growth is expected from the Anadarko (up 3,000 b/d), Appalachia (up 3,000 b/d) and Niobrara (up 1,000 b/d) regions.The total number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells across the seven regions fell 114 units to 4,273 between February and March, the most recent DPR data show. The Permian posted the largest drawdown for the period at 71, leaving its total DUC backlog at 1,309 as of March, according to EIA.DUC totals also declined in the Anadarko (down 13), Appalachia (down 6), Bakken (down 11), Eagle Ford (down 11) and Niobrara (down 14) regions. The Haynesville, meanwhile, added 12 DUC wells to its backlog month/month, ending with 383 as of March, the EIA data show.EIA’s DPR makes use of recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.
Natural gas surges to highest level since 2008 as Russia's war upends energy markets - U.S. natural gas prices surged to the highest level in more than 13 years Monday as Russia's war on Ukraine causes a global energy crunch and as forecasts called for cooler spring temperatures. Futures jumped 10% to trade as high as $8.05 per million British thermal units, the highest since September 2008. The jump builds on recent strength, with natural gas coming off five straight positive weeks. Prices later retreated slightly, with the contract ending the day 7.12% higher at $7.82. "The impact of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is likely to be long-lasting for North American natural gas markets," EBW Analytics added that a "bullish weather shift" has sent the U.S. market into "overdrive." For the year, U.S. natural gas prices are now up 108%, which is adding to inflationary concerns across the economy. The move is less extreme than in Europe, where natural gas futures have risen to record levels as the bloc scrambles to move away from dependence on Russian energy. The U.S. is now sending record amounts of liquefied natural gas to Europe, which is lifting Henry Hub prices. "LNG exports have taken on more significance with geopolitics and demand from both power generation/ industrial usage are strong. The US role as an exporter continues to increase," noted RBC. "There is a fundamentally constructive backdrop driven by record LNG outflows, strong Mexico exports, and producer discipline," the firm added. Amid the jump in prices producers have kept output under control, and inventory in storage is now 17% below the five-year average, a "[T]he US is starting to potentially look like Europe this time last year crushing the near-term seasonality and switching the curve to a constant demand scenario," he said. "Additional pressure on natural gas is also coming from the battle between Asia and Europe for spare LNG cargoes which will inevitably be diverted away from the US west coast and New England coming into next winter,"
Natural gas drops 10%, pulls back from more than 13-year high - U.S. natural gas futures plunged more than 11% at the lows Tuesday, reversing Monday's surge which saw the contract rally more than 10% at one point to break above $8 per million British thermal units and hit the highest level since September 2008.Henry Hub prices declined 11.1% at the session low to trade at $6.95. However the contract made back some of those losses during afternoon trading, and ultimately settled 8.24% lower at $7.176.From Monday's high to Tuesday's low the May contract shed 13.8%. Natural gas prices have been on a tear since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February. The contract is coming off five straight weeks of gains and is up nearly 90% for the year. Pointing to the relative strength index, a momentum indicator, Maley said the commodity was second-most overbought since 2003. "Its RSI chart is now up to levels that have been followed by short-term pullbacks in the past," he noted Thursday. "We are still bullish on natural gas (and natural gas-related stocks), so we're not saying that investors should take profits right here. Instead, we [are] merely saying that investors should avoid chasing these assets over the near term." Prices surged Monday on forecasts for colder spring temperatures, fuel switching from coal to natural gas, as well as the U.S. sending record amounts of LNG to Europe.
Natural Gas Forward Prices Ease Lower as Rally Finally Starts to Lose Steam -As the relentless march higher for natural gas prices finally began to show signs of slowing down, forwards prices recorded discounts throughout the Lower 48 during the April 14-20 trading period, NGI’s Forward Look data show. Fixed prices for May delivery at benchmark Henry Hub eased 6.0 cents lower to end the period a hair below $7 at $6.938/MMBtu. In turn, fixed price discounts of around a nickel to a dime were the norm at most locations, though pipeline maintenance appeared to drive steeper declines at a number of Appalachian natural gas hubs.Meanwhile, Nymex futures had appeared poised to reach beyond the $8.00 threshold, but after setting a high of $8.065 in Monday’s session, the May contract retreated from there. Following a bearish storage miss from the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report Thursday, the prompt month eked out a 2.0-cent gain to settle at $6.957. June climbed 3.1 cents to $7.096.Entering Thursday’s session, it was a technically significant question whether bears could push prices “decisively” below the $7 mark for the June contract, ICAP Technical Analysis analyst Brian LaRose told clients.“With the June contract just holding above this level, a surge to $8.570-8.606 still can not be ruled out,” LaRose said. “However, for that to happen, the bulls will have to stage an immediate intervention. Should the bulls fail to step in the door will be open for a ‘mean reversion’ and a visit to the 22-day moving averages.”The latest inventory report offered little incentive for bulls to stage such an intervention and reclaim the momentum Thursday.EIA reported a 53 Bcf injection into U.S. gas stocks for the week ended April 15, overshooting both consensus estimates and the 42 Bcf five-year average build.The print left inventories at 1,450 Bcf, 292 Bcf (minus 16.8%) lower than five-year average stocks, according to the agency.Bespoke Weather Services observed that the latest EIA number could represent something of a “make-up” following a bullish miss in the data from a week earlier. “Either way, we have definitely loosened, just based on these last couple of weeks.”The latest balances would put inventories on a trajectory for end-of-season storage above 3.6 Tcf, according to the firm’s modeling.“Keep in mind, this is solely extrapolating forward based on the last two weeks, so is prone to large errors,” Bespoke said. “That means we are not in the clear, but this probably limits near-term upside risk.”As recent price action showed the market making a clear call on supplies, the latest numbers from Enverus point to a modest sequential decline in rig activity. Still, upstream operators have increased development substantially over the past year. Enverus recorded a three-rig increase in the U.S. count for the week ended April 20, raising the total number of active domestic rigs to 770.“Activity levels are down less than a percent in the last month and up 49% year/year,” according to Enverus. “The count was as high as 781 in the last week, which is up 12 compared to the prior week’s peak.”
U.S. natgas futures extend decline on milder weather forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 3% on Wednesday, extending their decline as forecasts indicated a turn to slightly warmer weather that could dent demand for the fuel to heat homes and businesses. Front-month gas futures settled 23.9 cents or 3.3% lower at $6.937 per million British thermal units after having dropped as much as over 5% to 6.791 per mmbtu earlier in the session. On Tuesday, prices settled 8% lower following rallies to 13-year peaks in preceding days driven in part by an unseasonal cold snap coming at a time when the market generally shifts to moving gas into storage in preparation for the next winter. "If you look at the weather path next two weeks, we will start to get some single day double digit storage injections and we should start to normalize a little bit more towards the traditional summer injection schedule," Data provider Refinitiv estimated there would be 131 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, closer to the 30-year norm of 122 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of days a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 99.5 bcfd this week to 91.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Meanwhile, data from Refinitiv showed average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was at 94.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March, down from December's monthly record of 96.3 bcfd. "There still remains much upside risk in the current market," analysts at Gelber & Associates said in a note. "Storage injections through the month of April will not be able to keep up with those of the five-year average, and the deficit between 2022 storage and the five-year will increase, placing the market in an environment where the prospect of additional tightness could allow prices to reclaim territory lost today."
Weekly US gas storage build surpasses analyst forecast at 53 Bcf | S&P Global Market Intelligence --Natural gas storage operators injected a net 53 Bcf into Lower 48 inventories during the week ended April 15, above the five-year average build of 42 Bcf, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported.The injection, which surpassed the 31 Bcf forecast by an S&P Global Platts analyst survey, brought total working gas supply to 1,450 Bcf, or 428 Bcf below the year-ago level and 292 Bcf below the five-year average.By region:
- * In the East, inventories rose by 9 Bcf to 238 Bcf, 26% lower than the year-ago level.
- * In the Midwest, inventories increased by 11 Bcf to 304 Bcf, 28% under a year ago.
- * In the Mountain region, storage levels decreased by 1 Bcf to 89 Bcf, down 25% from a year earlier.
- * In the Pacific region, stockpiles were unchanged at 169 Bcf, down 19% from the year-ago level.
* In the South Central region, stockpiles climbed by 33 Bcf to 650 Bcf, down 20% from a year earlier. Of that total, 201 Bcf was in salt cavern facilities and 449 Bcf was in non-salt-cavern facilities. Working gas stocks grew 8.1% in salt cavern facilities from the week before and rose 4.2% in non-salt-cavern facilities.
U.S. natgas marks weekly dip after bigger storage build — U.S. natural gas futures fell on Friday en route to their first weekly dip in six, with the pullback from 13-year peaks scaled earlier in the week hastened by a larger-than-expected weekly storage build. Front-month gas futures fell 42.3 cents to settle 6.1% lower at $6.534 per million British thermal units. Prices shed more than 10% this week, its worst week since the one ended Feb. 11 and also its first weekly dip in six. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed utilities added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a smaller-than-usual 37 bcf build. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. gas rigs increased to 144 this week, matching a firgure last touched in early October 2019, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday. However, U.S. gas stockpiles are still currently 16.8% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. U.S. gas futures have soared about 79% so far this year with much higher prices in Europe keeping demand for U.S. LNG near record highs as several countries try to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Prices hit a 13-year high of $8.065 per mmBtu on Monday, driven by expectations of an unusually cold April, but have since retreated as weather forecasts turned more moderate. "The recent gas price roller-coaster ride certainly has caught everyone's attention," said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Co in Oklahoma City. "As the gas market becomes more and more internationally integrated, we will definitely see the convergence in gas prices, with the U.S. price rising to eliminate or narrow down that gap." Data provider Refinitiv estimated there would be 126 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, slightly above the 30-year norm of 116 HDDs for this time of year. The estimate is higher than Thursday's forecasts. HDDs, used to estimate demand for heating of homes and businesses, measure the number of days a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 98.4 bcfd this week to 92.7 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, data from Refinitiv showed average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 was at 94.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 93.7 bcfd in March, and well below December's monthly record of 96.3 bcfd.
DT Midstream Joins Growing Endeavor to Tackle Emissions Across Natural Gas Industry - Natural gas pipeline and storage provider DT Midstream Inc. (DTM), with a portfolio that includes 900 miles of regulated interstate pipelines, said Wednesday it would join a rapidly growing project aimed at better understanding the energy industry’s role in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A day later, Houston-based Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI), one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America, jumped aboard as well. The companies said they partnered with Cheniere Energy Inc., the largest U.S. producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), in an effort to study emissions. They also aim to develop new protocols to capitalize on technology and bolster clean energy supplies.The project, which includes a swelling slate of midstream companies as well as academic researchers, involves quantification, monitoring, reporting and verification (QMRV) of emissions at natural gas gathering, processing, transmission and storage systems. Earlier this week, Williams joined the Cheniere-led effort. It followed several others, including Aethon Energy Management, Ascent Resources Utica LLC, EQT Corp., Indigo Natural Resources LLC and Pioneer Natural Resources Co.“Joining this collaborative is one of the many steps our team has taken to position DT Midstream on a path to net zero by 2050,” which is also the federal standard, said DT Midstream CEO David Slater. “It will also serve as an important step towards providing a carbon neutral pathway for customers interested in reaching Cheniere’s LNG export terminal.”
Would natural gas by any other name smell the same? - Everyone knows what natural gas is. It’s the stuff we use to heat our homes and fuel power plants across the state. But now, with the stroke of a pen and a vote, the 22-member group charged with designing New York’s road map to a carbon-free economy has changed the name of natural gas to “fossil gas.” The new name emerged back in December when members of the state’s appointed Climate Action Council agreed to use the term in their draft scoping plan which is a road map to clean energy in the coming years. The plan lays out preliminary strategies and policies for making large-scale reductions in CO2 emissions by 2050, as outlined in a 2019 law, the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act. The draft plan refers to fossil gas in a number of contexts. “The vast majority of current fossil gas customers (residential, commercial, and industrial) will transition to electricity by 2050,” reads part of the plan that calls for electrification of buildings — that is using electricity rather than gas to heat homes, offices, schools and industrial spaces. The move hasn’t come without some controversy. And it’s an example of how language and semantics play a role in discussions about climate change and how to combat it. There are some technical reasons for changing the terminology. Natural gas, for instance, is in fact a fossil fuel. But using the term fossil gas rather than natural gas could also be seen as part of a larger effort to sell the state’s clean energy plans to the public. As policymakers enact an ambitious shift toward renewable power such as solar and wind, New Yorkers will see changes — in the kinds of cars they drive, the way they power their homes and probably in their energy bills, which will likely rise, at least in the short term, due to the changes. With that in mind, the language used to describe these changes is important in convincing the broader public that the cost is worthwhile in order to fight global warming. Council members reaffirmed that idea during a meeting last month when they voted to swap the term fossil gas for natural gas in a chapter about infrastructure such as pipelines in the draft scoping plan. “They said, and I agree, that calling gas ‘clean’ or ‘zero emissions’ or ‘natural’ is misleading. They further suggested calling gas ‘fossil gas’ rather than ‘natural gas,’ ” explained Robert Howarth, a Cornell University ecology and biology professor who serves on the Climate Action Council. The initial suggestion, he explained, came from a subcommittee of the CAC. “We have agreed that ‘fossil gas’ is less misleading than ‘natural gas,’ ” he said in an email.
Resource limits and our strange game of musical chairs - With a wide range of commodities in limited supply, various regions of the world are now behaving as if they are engaged in simultaneous games of musical chairs when it comes to commodity shortages.The games differ by commodity and by region, but they all share one characteristic: As in a game of musical chairs, someone will have to go without. And, as in a game of musical chairs, available supplies are shrinking (as represented by the removal of chairs).An interesting twist on this game is that now some chairs are being transferred from one game to another. For example, the Biden administration has declared that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe will be stepped up in order to displace natural gas from Russia—which has become a suspect source due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the broad economic sanctions against Russia. The gas still flows for now. But will Russia use a gas cutoff as a weapon? That is a question agitating all of Europe.Now here's what I mean about moving chairs from one game of musical chairs to another. It turns out that all of the United States' LNG export capacity is in use. There's none left to increase exports. Adding to the problem is Europe's limited ability to accept LNG cargoes as those cargoes need to be regassified and put into pipelines at special receiving and processing facilities that take years to build. It will also take years to build U.S. capacity substantial enough to make a dent in European dependence on Russian natural gas. The Russian threat of a cutoff remains and will remain a potent weapon for some time to come.Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas prices have levitated to levels last seen in the natural gas bull market of the late 2000s. Those prices may well go higher and stay there as domestic users vie for natural gas supplies that aren't going abroad. It's another game of musical chairs, in this case for U.S. consumers of natural gas.There is a persistent but erroneous belief that the so-called shale gas revolution in the United States is permanent and not a temporary phenomenon driven by too much "dumb" capital chasing a losing proposition. Higher prices will incentivize the extraction of more difficult-to-get gas. But that difficulty also means that the volumes are likely to be less per well. Meanwhile, production from existing wells continues to fall by 75 to 90 percent within three years. All that lost production has to be replaced BEFORE U.S. production can grow. By committing U.S. production for delivery to Europe, the United States has almost certainly condemned itself to a higher energy cost economy—unless it reneges on its promise. As I said, there are only so many chairs in this natural gas game of musical chairs and the United States just gave some of its chairs away. The Biden administration also announced that it is "waiving rules that restrict ethanol blending" in gasoline. The practical significance is that the percentage of ethanol in gasoline-based fuel will rise from 10 percent to 15 percent in areas where this has been previously prohibited between June 1 and September 15 because summertime weather is believed to increase smog from vehicles using this higher concentration of ethanol. The change will have only have a small impact on price—perhaps 10 cents for per gallon—and affect about 2,300 of the country's more than 100,000 gas stations. There will be another effect as well. The ethanol industry will require more corn to make corn ethanol for blending with gasoline. This is happening when corn prices are registering near all-time highs as supplies have been constricted by a combination of bad weather, sanctions related to the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and rising prices for nitrogen and other fertilizers necessary to maximize yields. In this game of commodity musical chairs, the U.S. administration has just moved a chair from the corn musical chairs game to the ethanol musical chairs game. Ethanol and therefore gasoline prices will be moderated and corn prices and therefore the price of many foods containing corn will be levitated.
Should EPA Back-Off Pollution Controls to Help LNG Exports Replace Russian Gas in Germany? - The nation’s top exporter of liquified natural gas, Cheniere Energy, is using Russia’s war on Ukraine to pressure the Biden administration for a break on regulations aimed at reducing toxic air emissions at its LNG export terminals in Louisiana and Texas. Environmental advocates are hoping the Biden administration stands firm on its March decision to finally, after nearly two decades, enforce limits on toxic air emissions from certain kinds of gas-powered turbines used in a variety of industrial operations, including the chilling and liquefaction of natural gas at Cheniere’s export terminals on the Gulf Coast for shipment overseas in large tanker vessels. But Russia’s war in Ukraine has placed enormous counterpressure on the president from the oil and gas industry and its supporters in Congress, Republicans and Democrats alike, who want U.S. LNG exports to replace Russian gas.Before the war, Russia was supplying about 40 percent of the EU’s gas. Jane Williams, executive director of California Communities Against Toxics, said now is precisely the moment in which Biden should show resolve in the face of Cheniere’s request to relax pollution controls. “If EPA says, ‘No, you don’t have to comply now, we will give you a waiver for two more years,’ then as soon as they do, every other operator of a stationary turbine will ask for the same thing,” said Williams, who is closely following the issue. In addition to the chillers making LNG, gas powered turbines are commonly used in electricity generation. “We have been trying to get (EPA) to reduce emissions from turbines for 30 years.” Attorneys at Bracewell, the Houston-based law firm that asked EPA in March for the break on Cheniere’s behalf, say the federal agency has not responded. An EPA spokeswoman said the agency was considering Cheniere’s request. The next move is Biden’s, and It’s not at all clear how the administration is going to react with the war in Ukraine raging, natural gas prices soaring, gasoline prices at the pump near record highs and the 2022 midterm elections approaching. At issue are rules for a type of gas turbine the EPA had held in abeyance since 2004 at the request of users in industry. EPA justified its action at the time by saying it might scuttle the pollution limits on those turbines altogether. A court ruling in 2007 eliminated the agency’s rationale for its stay on enforcement of the turbine pollution limits. Still, EPA kept the stay in place until March. In documents posted on its website, EPA acknowledged it was again reviewing a new petition from industry that could potentially result in sweeping aside the toxic air limits on the turbines. But it concluded those decisions were not likely to be made quickly, so there was no reason to continue a policy of not enforcing the toxic air limits, according to an agency explanation in the Federal Register.
‘Too Many Constraints’ to Rapidly Boost Lower 48 Oil, Natural Gas Production, Experts Say - Lower 48 oil and natural gas production is on the rise, particularly in the Permian Basin, but shortages of labor, materials and equipment will prevent a rapid supply response to current market tightness, according to experts. The Biden administration has called on U.S. producers to ramp up supply in order to lower gasoline prices and reduce global dependence on energy imports from Russia. However, publicly traded and privately held producers alike will be hard pressed to achieve dramatic production increases over the near term, according to NGI’s Patrick Rau, director of strategy and research. “Based on public guidance and Wall Street consensus estimates, we estimate that U.S. publics are going to grow natural gas production at about 3% this year,” Rau said on the latest episode of NGI’s Hub and Flow podcast. Their privately owned counterparts will “grow faster than that, and they are adding rigs at a faster pace. But we think there are simply too many constraints in place right now that will prevent both publics and privates from increasing production too quickly in 2022.” The Energy Information Administration (EIA), for its part, is forecasting a 4% increase in U.S. dry gas output and a 7% increase in oil production in 2022 versus 2021. One major constraint on supply is a lack of high-end, high-horsepower “super-spec” drilling rigs and qualified hydraulic fracturing crews, Rau said. “We note that there are a number of prominent oilfield service companies who are saying that capacity utilization for both those things right now is north of 90%, so there’s only so many extra rigs and crews folks could add even if they wanted to add more.” Producers also can no longer rely on their inventory of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells, which have fallen dramatically. The DUC well count throughout the primary Lower 48 onshore basins stood at 4,273 as of March, down from 6,905 in March 2021, according to EIA. \ Exploration and production (E&P) firms also have cited pressure from investors as a factor limiting production growth, as shareholders have demanded that a greater percentage of cash flow from operations be returned to them, rather than reinvested as capital expenditure. Lower 48 E&Ps have obliged, and as a result the energy sector has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the last year. Lower 48 E&Ps including Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Devon Energy Corp., meanwhile, have pledged to limit annual production growth to 5% or lower, regardless of the oil price. However, the notion of investor pressure as the primary factor holding back production is “outdated a little bit,” Jeff Nichols, a partner at Haynes and Boone LLP, told NGI.* He said producers’ “current limitation is people and rigs and supplies. With the price of oil as high as it is, they’re currently doing everything they can to increase production.” Nichols explained that “a lot of people left the industry during the downturn. You need people, you need engineers to supervise these drilling projects.”
EPA floats options to curb gas plant carbon emissions - -EPA tipped its hand today on the kinds of control options it is considering for a future rule to meaningfully curb carbon pollution from new natural gas power plants. The agency released a white paper seeking public comment for efficiency measures and carbon control technologies that could form the basis of the rule, which is expected to be proposed later this year. EPA’s acting air chief, Joseph Goffman, said in a statement that the white paper “is intended to advance EPA’s work to cut greenhouse gas emissions and amplify the leadership that we are seeing from power companies, states, investors, communities and other organizations.” The paper explores design features of electric generating units that could boost a gas plant’s efficiency and help it produce more power with less emissions or to better support intermittent renewable energy. These run the gamut from combined cycle turbines instead of simple cycle turbines, features to help units ramp up quickly for lower-capacity use and options for limiting other pollutants without sapping efficiency. It explores combined heat and power — which allows the same fuel to produce both electricity and thermal output. It also delves into options that would average emissions from a gas-fired unit with nonemitting renewable generation at the same site. It requests comment on how carbon capture, utilization and storage could be applied to gas-based power generation. And, it evaluates how hydrogen could be used to bring down overall emissions. “Hydrogen is often included as a component of broad decarbonization goals of the overall economy, and its potential as a low-[greenhouse gas] alternative to natural gas — especially as a fuel for combustion turbines — has received much attention of late,” the paper notes. It looks at options for generating hydrogen, ranging from coal to nuclear and renewable energy. EPA’s public comment period on the white paper closes June 6. Also in June, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on a case, that while not directly related to the new power plant rule, is likely to inform the kind of standard EPA proposes later this year.
Cheniere Energy, Kinder Morgan to study greenhouse gas emissions along this Louisiana pipeline - Kinder Morgan and Cheniere Energy are teaming up with university researchers to study greenhouse gas emissions along natural gas pipelines in Louisiana and across the country. The companies said in a news release they will partner with researchers from Colorado State University and the University of Texas to quantify and monitor the greenhouse gas levels along the pipelines and their compressor stations. Kinder Morgan’s Louisiana Pipeline, which stretches from Cameron Parish to Evangeline Parish, will be involved in the studies, as will the Tennessee Gas Pipeline and the Natural Gas Pipeline of America. The Louisiana Pipeline supplies natural gas to Cheniere’s Sabine Pass LNG facility in Cameron Parish. The companies said the work is intended to develop advanced monitoring technologies and protocols for greenhouse gas emissions at facilities that extract, process and transport natural gas. “We believe our collaboration in this project further demonstrates our dedication to better understanding the GHG emissions from our facilities and supporting the needs of our customers,” Kimberly Watson, Kinder Morgan’s interstate natural gas president, said in a statement. Kinder Morgan and Cheniere Energy said they also will partner with midstream operators and methane detection technology providers for the study. Those other partners were not named in the news release. “Collaboration with our midstream partners is a vital part of Cheniere’s efforts to measure and verify our emissions and look for opportunities for reductions across our value chain,” Scott Culberson, Cheniere’s senior vice president of gas supply, said in a statement. “KMI is a critical teammate in this effort to provide cleaner sources of energy around the world, and their leadership will help to improve the environmental performance of U.S. natural gas and LNG.”
American Noble to Explore for Natural Gas in Kansas’ Hugoton Field -American Noble Gas Inc. has agreed to acquire a 40% participation in a farmout agreement with an unspecified operator in the Hugoton natural gas field in Haskell and Finney Counties, KS. The Kansas-headquartered independent exploration and production (E&P) company would join three other partners to explore for and develop oil and gas and brine reserves on the property. The field has a long history of gas production dating back to 1919, but has mainly been discarded as mostly depleted. The E&P thinks there are still resources to be tapped. “We believe that commercial-level reserves of helium are present in the acreage included in our Farmout Agreement,” said CEO Stanton Ross. The agreement covers drilling and completion of up to 50 wells. The Hugoton joint venture would utilize existing infrastructure assets, including water disposal, existing brine stream, gas gathering and helium processing. The first exploratory well is scheduled to commence this month near Garden City, with a goal to evaluate “an unconventional theory” for reinvigorating production from the Hugoton field. If successful, the company thinks they could unlock “substantial gas and helium reserves” embedded in the Hugoton gas field that were previously considered depleted. The massive Hugoton natural gas field has been a producer of gas and helium for decades. It straddles the southwestern edge of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A 2007 study by the Kansas Geological Survey at the University of Kansas found that the gas still in place could be extended through 2050, provided the integrity of 40- to 70-year-old wells was maintained. In 2007, the Hugoton produced 358 Bcf, making it at the time the fifth largest source of natural gas in the United States. The Hugoton Gas Field currently ranks second in cumulative natural gas production and eighth in estimated total reserves globally, according to American Noble Gas.
Why States Continue To Overrule Local Regulation Of Fossil Fuels - Like their counterparts in many other state capitals, Tennessee lawmakers recently passed a reform, Senate Bill 2077, that will stop local politicians from interfering with pipelines and other energy infrastructure projects through local regulation and taxation. Senator Ken Yager (R), sponsor of SB 2077, which passed out of the Tennessee Senate on March 24 and now awaits House consideration, explains the motive behind this effort to preempt local regulation of energy infrastructure:“These lines go across many several counties in this state, and at its worst case, if you allow micromanaging by each local level, sadly some of which who may have political agendas, you would end up with patchworks of regulations that would only serve to hurt our Tennessee economy,” said Senator Yager.SB 2077 and similar preemption bills enacted in other states prohibit local governments from regulating or taxing various economic activities, transactions, products, and industries. Despite amendments intended to address concerns, local officials and environmental organizations are working to defeat SB 2077, which is now working its way through the Tennessee House. The Tennessee House Ways & Means is scheduled to take up HB 2246, the House companion to SB 2077, during an April 19 hearing.“We think that cities and counties, people concerned with protecting public safety and protecting the environment, have made this bill better, but it’s still unnecessary to preempt local government,” said Scott Banbury, spokesman for the Sierra Club’s Tennessee chapter. “I know we do a lot of preemption up here, but this a very serious scenario where it could potentially have very devastating effects in someone’s neighborhood,” added Senator Raumesh Akbari (D). Though it is not a new phenomenon, preemption legislation continues to garner intense opposition and has caused some policymakers to be conflicted. An example of that conflict was on display in Texas a few years ago. In 2015, Texas lawmakers and Governor Greg Abbott enacted a reform that, as the legislative language made clear, “expressly preempts regulation of oil and gas operations by municipalities and other political subdivisions.” That bill came about in response to efforts by some local officials in Texas to ban hydraulic fracturing.“We have sued the federal government multiple times because of the heavy hand of regulation from the federal government – trying to run individuals’ lives, encroaching upon individual liberty,” Governor Abbott said when signing that preemption bill. “At the same time, we are ensuring that people and officials at the local level are not going to be encroaching upon individual liberty or individual rights.”Yet even pro-fracking conservatives in and outside the Texas Legislature were conflicted over that 2015 reform. “I agree … that banning fracking is a bad idea,” said Mark Davis, a popular Dallas-based radio host, “but I also believe in local control. Shouldn’t local towns be able to do what they want?”
Redlined neighborhoods in cities across the US saw more oil drilling, study finds - Roughly 17 million people in the U.S. live within a mile of an oil or gas well — putting them at higher risk of health problems like heart disease, breathing issues, anxiety and depression, and complications during pregnancy, a growing body of research shows.But all is not equal when it comes to who exactly lives near oil wells — and intentional racial discrimination in federal mortgage policies, reflected in a practice known as “redlining,” may have played a role, according to a new study published in the Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology.There are nearly twice as many oil and gas wells in neighborhoods that were redlined in the 1930s, the study found. That pattern was visible in 33 cities across 13 states where oil and gas wells were drilled, and drilling in those neighborhoods intensified after the federal government issued redlining maps. The relationship was visible not only in heavily drilled southern states like Texas and Louisiana, but also in cities like Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Detroit, Indianapolis, Buffalo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New York City, and Los Angeles.“Our study adds to the evidence that structural racism in federal policy is associated with the disproportionate siting of oil and gas wells in marginalized neighborhoods,” researchers from the University of California at Berkeley and Columbia University in New York wrote in the paper.The research has implications not only for public health, but also for upcoming battlesover the cleanup — known as plugging and abandonment — of the nation’s aging oil and gas wells, including questions of which wells should be plugged first and how to ensure that wells remain plugged over time. The federal government intends to spend $4.7 billion over the next nine years to plug inactive oil and gas wells whose owners can’t be found, under the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, dispensed in grants to state oil and gas regulators.Oil drillers look to drill wherever oil is found — but when you zoom in a bit and look acre-by-acre, companies and regulators tend to have a fair amount of discretion over where exactly drilling is done.The new study used data from Enverus Drilling Info, an industry data provider, showing the locations of oil and gas wells that were drilled as far back as 1898, plus federal census data, and maps drawn by the Home-Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC), a New Deal-era program that was initially intended to prevent foreclosures during the Great Depression. Towards the end of the 1930s, HOLC was given the job of mapping out the lending risks associated with neighborhoods across the U.S. It wound up producing notorious “redlining” maps that explicitly discriminated against people of color based on their race — a practice PBS dubbed “the Jim Crow laws of the North.”
Permian Could See Production Surge As New Permits Reach All-Time High - Horizontal drilling permits for new wells in the Permian Basin hit an all-time high in March, with 904 total permit awards, driven by elevated oil prices and production demand, Rystad Energy research shows. Weekly approved permits have hovered between 188 and 227 since March 7, 2022, an unprecedented period of high activity that pushed the four-week average to 210 for the week ending April 3, a record for horizontal permit approvals in the core US shale patch over four weeks. “The surge in permitting activity positions the industry for continuous rig count additions in the second half of 2022 and foreshadows a significant increase in supply capacity from early 2023,” However, it is advisable to practice caution when using these numbers as a concrete indicator of future drilling plans. Many permits never get drilled, and operators follow diverse permitting strategies – in other words, the time from permit approval to the start of drilling varies substantially across producers in the same basin. Even with this caveat, the current permit activity trend points to a continuous uptick in drilling in the coming months. Weekly horizontal permit approvals have occasionally spiked above 200 in recent years, but the persistently elevated levels currently being seen from regulators in Texas and New Mexico are unprecedented. The regular monthly average for permit approvals ranges between 400 and 500 locations, which makes the magnitude of the sequential increase between February and March particularly extreme. Privately owned operators finished with almost 500 new horizontal drill permits approved in March – larger than the number of wells currently being drilled in the Permian in any given month by all operators. Public independent producers also saw a material increase, being awarded 410 horizontal locations – an unusually high number compared to their usual range of 230 to 320 in recent months. As many as 10 of the 22 largest contributors saw higher activity in March than their maximum monthly count between March 2021 and February 2022. Pioneer Natural Resources stood out, with 99 horizontal permits approved in March – a record high for the operator’s portfolio on a pro-forma current operatorship basis. Diamondback Energy was another public producer with unusually high activity in March, at 59, while Franklin Mountain Energy, Birch Resources and Spur Energy Partners were the most significant among private operators in terms of the number of permits in March relative to the average rate in the previous 12 months.
Texas Sees Oil Employment Rise In March --Citing the latest Current Employment Statistics report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO) noted that new employment figures showed another month of positive job growth for the Texas upstream sector in 2022. According to TIPRO’s analysis, direct Texas upstream employment for March 2022 totaled 184,700, an increase of 4,300 jobs from February numbers, subject to revisions. Texas upstream employment in March 2022 represented an increase of 21,700 positions compared to March 2021, including an increase of 3,600 positions in oil and natural gas extraction and 18,100 jobs in the services sector. TIPRO said that the Houston metropolitan area, the largest region in the state for industry employment, added 1,500 upstream jobs last month compared to February, for a total of 64,500 direct positions. Houston metro upstream employment in March 2022 represented an increase of 5,300 jobs compared to March 2021, including an increase of 2,100 positions in oil and natural gas extraction and 3,200 jobs in the services sector. TIPRO once again noted strong job posting data for upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors for March in line with rising employment, showing continued demand for talent, and increasing exploration and production activities in the Texas oil and natural gas industry. According to the association, there were 11,433 active unique job postings for the Texas oil and natural gas industry in March of 2022, a 14 percent increase compared to February. TIPRO also highlighted that in February a record number of drilling permits for new wells were issued in the Permian Basin as producers respond to higher commodity prices and the call to increase domestic production to address global supply shortages. Among the 14 specific industry sectors TIPRO uses to define the Texas oil and natural gas industry, Support Activities for Oil and Gas Operations once again ranked the highest in March for unique job listings with 3,167 postings, followed by Crude Petroleum Extraction (1,512) and Petroleum Refineries (1,040). The leading three cities by total unique oil and natural gas job postings were Houston (3,895), Midland (1,256), and Odessa (583), said TIPRO. The top three companies ranked by unique job postings in March were Baker Hughes with (637), Weatherford International (494), and Halliburton (488). Top posted occupations for March included heavy tractor-trailer truck drivers (489), software developers and software quality assurance analysts and testers (271), and personal service managers (270).
Unregulated Texas gathering line leaks methane — A natural gas pipeline in Texas leaked methane from a 16-inch (41-centimeter) pipe that’s a tiny part of a vast web of unregulated gathering lines across the U.S., linking production fields and other sites to bigger transmission lines. New federal reporting requirements start next month for these pipes. Energy Transfer LP, which operates the line where the leak occurred through its ETC Texas Pipeline Ltd. unit, said an investigation into the cause of the event last month is ongoing and all appropriate regulatory notifications were made. It called the pipe an “unregulated gathering line.’’ The timing of the release and its location appeared to match a plume of methane observed by a European Space Agency satellite that geoanalytics firm Kayrros SAS called the most severe in the U.S. in a year. Methane is the primary component of natural gas and traps 84 times more heat than carbon dioxide during its first 20 years in the atmosphere. Severely curbing or eliminating releases of the gas from fossil fuel operations is crucial to avoiding the worst of climate change. The International Energy Agency has said oil and gas operators should move beyond emissions intensity goals and adopt a zero-tolerance approach to methane releases. ETC Texas Pipeline reported a “line break” that lasted from 8:08 a.m. to 9:17 a.m. local time March 17 on its Big Cowboy pipeline that is jointly owned with Kinder Morgan Inc., according to a filing to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The incident caused a release of 52,150 thousand standard cubic feet of natural gas. The event likely released about 900 metric tons of methane into the atmosphere, according to the Environmental Defense Fund, a non-profit group that has used aerial surveys to map releases of the fossil gas over oil and gas operations in the U.S. Permian basin. That amount of the greenhouse gas will trap about as much heat as 75,600 tons of carbon dioxide during its first two decades in the atmosphere. The ETC Texas Pipeline filing to the TCEQ didn’t include an estimate for how much methane was released and the state agency said it doesn’t regulate releases of the gas. The Texas Railroad Commission said it has an ongoing investigation into the Big Cowboy incident without elaborating. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said that as of April 7 it hadn’t received a report about the release but that it’s communicating with the TCEQ. One of the major insights from satellite observations of methane is the amount of total emissions for which super-emission events are responsible. Although these events can be infrequent and sometimes only last a few hours, oil and gas ultra-emitters account for as much as 12% of global methane emissions from the sector, according to a study published in Science in February by French and American scientists. The researchers used satellite observations to identify more than 1,800 major releases of the gas.
Study: Low-producing oil wells cause 50% of methane emissions - Low-producing oil and gas wells are to blame for roughly half of the methane emitted from all U.S. well sites, despite making up 6 percent of the country’s total production, according to new research published this week.The study, published in Nature Communications, is the first comprehensive look at low-production well site emissions nationwide, researchers said. The paper found that low-producing or “marginal” wells emit methane at a rate 6 to 12 times higher than the national average — releasing some 4 million metric tons of the potent greenhouse gas a year. “Our research shows that the total methane emitted from the country’s half million low-producing wells has the same impact on the climate every year as 88 coal-fired power plants,” said Mark Omara, a scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund and lead author, in a statement. Omara said methane emissions from low-producing well sites can come from sources that are common throughout oil and gas operations, including both intentional vented emissions as well as unintentional emissions like those from equipment malfunctions. Marginal wells produce less than 15 barrels of oil equivalent per day, according to the study. Yesterday, EDF said draft methane rules from EPA released in November omit many smaller well sites from regular monitoring. The organization warned that the agency risks overlooking a big source of methane. “The EPA proposal is an important step forward by the agency towards addressing methane pollution broadly at oil and gas facilities, but based on this study, we’re leaving a big chunk of potential emissions reductions on the table if EPA doesn’t comprehensively require inspections and fixing of leaks at smaller sites,” said Rosalie Winn, an EDF senior attorney, on a call with reporters. Timothy Carroll, an EPA spokesperson, said the agency received the information contained in the Nature study during the public comment period on the November proposal.Omara at EDF said the study supports the need for including low-production well sites “as part of any effective mitigation strategy” for oil and gas methane emissions. Environmental groups have long opposed exemptions for low-producing wells, something that oil and gas companies, as well as trade associations and some state regulators, have pressed EPA for in recent years (Climatewire, April 6).Last year, for example, Texas energy and environmental regulators said the 2016 rule from the Obama administration was “especially burdensome for stripper and marginal well operators.” “Of particular concern is the effect the cost of leak detection and monitoring will have on the marginal wells that account for approximately 20% of Texas’s production,” said the letter, signed by the executive directors of the Texas Railroad Commission and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, dated July 30, 2021 (Energywire, Aug. 5, 2021).
New study shows New Mexico has seen an increase in oil spills– During the pandemic, fewer people were out and about so demand for fuel was down, now that things are getting back to normal, oil production is back and so is the number of spills. According to a new study by the Center for Western Priorities, oil and gas companies spilled over 658,000 gallons of oil in New Mexico last year from a total of 1,368 spills. That’s significantly higher than the 1,269 spills in 2020. Officials are attributing the lower numbers in 2020 to the pandemic and now things are returning to normal, and so is oil production. “What we’re trying to do is, you know, encourage operators to look at, their operations holistically,” said ENMRD Oil Conservation Division Direction Adrienne Sandoval. She said that would encourage companies to take preventative measures beforehand. “What we have found is that if we trend all of the spill data a lot of times these spills are preventable, so we want to encourage operators to take a look at their operations, put preventative mechanisms in place so that, we’re preventing these spills upfront rather than having to clean them up on the backend,” said Sandoval. Sandoval said the state recently adopted new rules to eliminate pollution from oil and gas. “The OCD changed our spill rules in 2021, which went into effect at the end of the year and it changed small wording that spills are now unlawful,” said Sandoval. The new regulations would slap violators with immediate fines and bans routine flaring, which is the burning of excess gas. Total volume of Natural Gas Vented/Flared or released (Waste rule went into effect May 25, 2021)
2020 – 1,738,092 mcf
2021 – 6,886,590 mcf
2022 – 3,758,155 mcf
Critics say the new rules are too demanding for small oil producers. State Representative Jim Townsend (R), who represents much of southern New Mexico, said the companies he’s worked with have always put safety first by thinking of the community. “They try to prevent environmental damage. They live in the communities that they work in. Them and their children go to school, those communities,” said Rep. Townsend.” “So there they are, good citizens, in the communities they work in and they try real hard to prevent those types of things from occurring.” Rep. Townsend said the companies he has worked with over the years of his life have also always been proactive even with the new rule changes. “There’s all sorts of new technologies out, inline inspection tools for pipelines, for example, that you can run in a pipeline while it’s in service, and it can identify areas of the wall of the pipe that may be thinning,” said Rep. Townsend. “So you can go in and make repairs long before there’s ever any release. That technology is also available for tanks and other metal devices that you can run up that type of detection on.” So far this year, there have been 400 liquid releases or oil spills.
NM Adopts Stiffer Pollution Rules For Oil and Gas - (AP) — New Mexico regulators have approved more rules aimed at cracking down on pollution from the oil and natural gas industry amid the national debate over domestic production and concerns about global energy market instability. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s administration on Thursday praised the rules, calling them among the toughest in the nation. “This is a momentous step forward in achieving our goals of lowering emissions and improving air quality. New Mexicans can be proud of the fact that we are leading the nation by implementing rules that protect our families and their environment,” said Lujan Grisham, who is running for reelection. The Democrat has pushed for more regulations throughout her first term and the rules approved this week by the state Environmental Improvement Board mark the second part of her plan for tackling pollution blamed for exacerbating climate change. High fuel prices are hurting household finances as the New Mexico state government benefits from a financial windfall linked to record-setting oil production in the Permian Basin. New Mexico last year surpassed North Dakota to become the No. 2 oil-producing U.S. state behind Texas. State oil and gas regulators adopted separate rules earlier this year to limit venting and flaring at petroleum production sites to reduce methane pollution. This latest effort, led by the state Environment Department, focuses on oilfield equipment that emits smog-causing pollution, specifically volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides. It includes minimum requirements for oil and natural gas producers to calculate their emissions and have them certificated by engineers and to find and fix leaks on a regular basis. The rule would apply to compressors, turbines, heaters and other pneumatic devices used at the production sites. The New Mexico Oil and Gas Association, which represents producers, expects the new rules will reduce emissions. But industry officials said New Mexico oil and gas production is responsible for only a small amount of the state’s ozone pollution. Ozone pollutants also can also be found in wildfire smoke and vehicle emissions. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is considering classifying some of the largest cities in the nation as “severe” ozone pollution violators. The Independent Petroleum Association of New Mexico criticized the rules, saying the state opted to remove a more flexible regulatory framework for low-volume producers after being pressured by environmental groups. The industry group said Friday that the rules will lead to premature plugging of still-productive wells. “The combination of these new federal and state oil and gas restrictions will continue to punish New Mexicans at the gas pump, undermine our domestic security, increase our dependency on foreign adversaries at a time when we should be increasing domestic production,”
Clean energy is buried at the bottom of abandoned oil wells -The UN climate report from early April makes clear we’re on a path that will careen past the climate goals set in the Paris Agreement, and we need to cut carbon emissions — fast. But while solar and wind power are important (they are, after all, key parts of the Biden administration’s climate plan) they’re the kind of thing we’ve seen plenty of before, which means they’ll only get us so far. What we need, the UN report says, is new solutions. Which is why a pilot programrecently detailed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) is particularly intriguing. If it works, it could help solve multiple problems at once, using an often-overlooked solution: geothermal energy.Geothermal energy works on a simple premise: The Earth’s core is hot, and by drilling even just a few miles underground, we can tap into that practically unlimited heat source to generate energy for our homes and businesses without creating nearly as many of the greenhouse gas emissions that come from burning fossil fuels. However, drilling doesn’t come cheap — it accounts for half the cost of most geothermal energy projects — and requires specialized labor to map the subsurface, drill into the ground, and install the infrastructure needed to bring energy to the surface.But the US, in the wake of an oil and gas boom, just so happens to have millions of oil and gas wells sitting abandoned across the country. And oil and gas wells, it turns out, happen to share many of the same characteristics as geothermal wells — namely that they are deep holes in the ground, with pipes that can bring fluids up to the surface. So, the DOE asks, why not repurpose them?That’s exactly what the agency’s pilot program, called Wells of Opportunity: ReAmplify, aims to do, awarding a total of $8.4 million to four projects across the country that will each try to tap into some of those old wells to extract geothermal energy rather than gas or oil. If they work, they could be the key to not only reducing the country’s use of planet-damaging fossil fuels, but also helping answer the question of how to transition many of the more than 125,000 people who work in oil and gas extraction across the country into clean-energy jobs.“The idea here is basically that you produce oil and gas resources for a couple of decades, and at the end of the production of oil and gas, you don’t completely retire the assets — you turn them toward heat production,” said Saeed Salehi, associate professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Oklahoma and the leader of one of the four groups receiving funding from the DOE. Oil and gas wells have a limited lifespan of a few decades, Salehi explained, after which they become depleted. Geothermal energy, if managed correctly, doesn’t have that problem. “The beauty is that this is a constant source of energy which is not going to change. It’s probably going to be [there] forever, as long as your well is functioning,” Salehi told Recode.
Oil, Natural Gas Industry Warns of Permitting Delays as Biden Restores Trump’s NEPA Repeal - The White House on Tuesday restored three core elements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) that had been rolled back under the Trump administration, heralding tighter environmental scrutiny for energy projects during the federal review process. “The specific changes made by today’s ‘Phase 1’ rule restore longstanding provisions that were modified for the first time in 2020; these 2020 changes caused implementation challenges for agencies and sowed confusion among the general public,” officials said. Enacted in 1969, NEPA is a cornerstone of the federal permitting process for a wide range of activities. It applies to upstream oil and gas development, as well as the construction of fossil and renewable energy infrastructure, roads, bridges and transit systems. The Trump Administration’s overhaul of NEPA was designed to streamline the approval process for major infrastructure projects, including oil and gas pipelines, and was hailed by industry advocates. The regulation finalized on Tuesday by the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) requires federal agencies to evaluate “all relevant environmental impacts — including those associated with climate change – during environmental reviews,” officials said. It requires agencies to “consider the ‘direct,’ ‘indirect,’ and ‘cumulative’ impacts of a proposed action, including by fully evaluating climate change impacts and assessing the consequences of releasing additional pollution in communities that are already overburdened by polluted air or dirty water. CEQ Chair Brenda Mallory indicated that restoring the old framework would make project approvals less susceptible to legal challenges. Industry groups did not appear convinced, however. The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Frank Macchiarola, senior vice president of policy, economics and regulatory affairs, warned that the rulemaking “adds more bureaucratic red tape into the permitting process” for fossil fuel as well as renewable, hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) projects. “With energy costs high for American consumers and European allies looking to the U.S. for access to an affordable and stable energy supply, we need policies in place that provide certainty and ensure American producers can meet rising demand at home and abroad,” Macchiarola said. He urged the administration “to change course and establish a timely and efficient permitting process that supports the energy security needs of the U.S. and our allies overseas.” Macchiarola also cited the recently announced task force between the United States and European Union to shore up supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe in order to lessen its dependence on Russian natural gas. “An effective and efficient NEPA process is critical to expanding LNG export projects, which will likely require additional interstate pipeline capacity,” he said. “Without a timely and efficient permitting system, infrastructure projects that are critical to U.S. energy security cannot be constructed under a timeframe that reflects the urgency for which they are needed.” The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Marty Durbin, senior vice president of policy, spoke out against the rulemaking as well. “It should never take longer to get federal approval for an infrastructure project than it takes to build the project, but that very well may be the result of the administration’s changes that revert back to the broken 1978 NEPA review process,” Durbin said. “A more efficient permitting process is critical for building modern infrastructure, including new roads, renewable energy facilities, telecommunications, and other critical forms of infrastructure.”
Interior Department to resume oil and gas leasing, charge higher fees - As pressure increases on the Biden administration to lower the price of fuel, the Interior Department announced on Friday plans to hold its first onshore oil and gas lease sales since President Biden took office. The department said it plans to open roughly 144,000 acres up for lease next week and will charge oil and gas companies higher royalties to drill on federal land, raising the fees for the first time. Under the plans unveiled Friday, royalty rates would increase to 18.75 percent from 12.5 percent for oil and gas lease sales. The long-awaited announcement follows a report the department issued last fall, which called for royalty fees to be more in line with the higher rates charged by most private landowners and major oil- and gas-producing states. The Biden administration’s willingness to move forward with oil and gas leasing angered climate activists, who called the department’s plans a betrayal of the president’s pledge to ban new drilling on public lands. According to the latest report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, issued last week, the world is on pace to burn through its remaining “carbon budget” by 2030 — putting the ambitious goal of keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) out of reach. Drilling on federal land and offshore is responsible for almost a quarter of the United States’ greenhouse gas emissions. “This is pure climate denial,” Jeremy Nichols, climate and energy program director for WildEarth Guardians, said in a statement. “While the Biden administration talks a good talk on climate action, the reality is, they’re in bed with the oil and gas industry.”
Interior Department to Relaunch Limited Federal Oil, Natural Gas Leasing - The Biden administration aims to substantially curb new oil and natural gas drilling on public lands as it attempts to combat climate change and emphasize renewable fuels. The White House said it would resume selling leases to drill for oil and gas on federal lands, though the number of acres available declined dramatically and it will cost drillers more to work on public property. Auctions are expected to start later this year. The Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is planning to release a sale notice for leases to drill on 144,000 acres of government land this week. However, that level marks an 80% reduction in available land for leasing when compared with a previous federal leasing plan. Energy companies also would have to pay higher royalties for the oil and gas they cull with new leases. The royalty rate is climbing to 18.75% from 12.5%. “How we manage our public lands and waters says everything about what we value as a nation,” said Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. “For too long, the federal oil and gas leasing programs have prioritized the wants of extractive industries above local communities, the natural environment, the impact on our air and water, the needs of tribal nations, and, moreover, other uses of our shared public lands.” Haaland said Interior has begun “to reset how and what we consider to be the highest and best use of Americans’ resources for the benefit of all current and future generations.” The Biden administration is attempting to strike a balance between its long-term environmental protection goals and a near-term need to ramp upproduction to tamp down lofty prices. The president’s new lease sales approach is an attempt to target the lands with the greatest potential while minimizing impacts on wildlife habitats and environmentally sensitive communities.This comes amid the war in Ukraine and resulting hits to Russian exports. Global markets in recent weeks have seesawed on supply worries.In response, President Biden vowed to unleash 1 million b/d from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months. Other countries collectively promised to release 60 million bbl as part of a plan overseen by the International Energy Agency.At the same time, U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies have gradually ramped up output in recent weeks. U.S. production for the week ended April 8 held even with the prior week at 11.8 million b/d — after hovering around 11.6 million b/d through most of February and March.U.S. output, however, remains more than 1 million b/d below pre-pandemic highs. With supplies light, gasoline prices recently reached record levels. Biden, by extension, is under pressure to further increase production to relieve consumers’ pain at the pump.Against that backdrop, the BLM this week resumed the lease sales process after a long delay to review the merits of drilling on public lands. It marks the first round of onshore lease sales under Biden, who took office in January 2021.
Activists Decry Biden’s ‘Reckless’ Resumption of Fossil Fuel Leases on Public Lands- Activists condemned Friday’s announcement by the Biden administration that the U.S. Bureau of Land Management will resume oil and gas lease sales on public lands as yet another betrayal of President Joe Biden’s promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tackle the climate emergency.The U.S. Interior Department explained Friday afternoon that the lease sale resumption is in compliance with a 2021 federal injunction blocking the Biden administration from enforcing atemporary pause on new leases for oil and gas drilling on public lands and waters.The department described the onshore oil and gas lease sales as “significantly reformed,” while announcing a “first-ever increase in the royalty rate for new competitive leases to 18.75%,” up from the 12.5% minimum rate required by law.While the progressive watchdog Accountable.US applauded the administration’s decision to raise the royalty rate, most climate campaigners decried the resumption of the fossil fuel lease sales amid a worsening planetary emergency.“It is never a good sign when the president announces something at 5:00 pm on a Friday. But President Biden can’t get away with this disastrous climate decision,” said Varshini Prakash, executive director of the youth-led Sunrise Movement. “The fact of the matter is that more drilling won’t solve high gas prices right now—so why is Biden breaking his campaign promise to stop drilling on public lands?”The Western Environmental Law Center noted that “the communities most at risk from new fossil fuel extraction are primarily Black, Brown, and Indigenous peoples, people of the global majority, and those on the frontlines of fossil fuel industry expansion. These are the same communities that turned out in record numbers to get Biden elected in 2020 and who have since been urging Biden to use his executive authority to fulfill his campaign promise and ban new federal fossil fuel projects.”Randi Spivak, public lands director at the Center for Biological Diversity, argued that “the Biden administration’s claim that it must hold these lease sales is pure fiction and a reckless failure of climate leadership.” “It’s as if they’re ignoring the horror of firestorms, floods, and megadroughts, and accepting climate catastrophes as business as usual,” she added. “These so-called reforms are 20 years too late and will only continue to fuel the climate emergency. These lease sales should be shelved and the climate-destroying federal fossil fuel programs brought to an end.” Collin Rees, U.S. program manager at Oil Change International, asserted that “in the midst of a climate emergency and a fossil-fueled war that has exposed the dangers of fossil fuel dependency, President Biden’s decision to double down on leasing new public lands for fossil fuel development is a disastrous choice.”
Why Biden broke his promise on no new drilling on federal lands | Grist - In 2020, at a campaign event in New Hampshire, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden made a promise to voters. “No more drilling on federal lands, period,” he said. “Period, period, period.” Last week, Biden broke that promise. His administration announced it was opening up public land to new oil and gas leases, several months after suspending those types of leases. Biden officials have a handy excuse for the reversal. In the summer of 2021, a federal judge in Louisiana struck down the Biden administration’s pause on new oil and gas leases on public lands. Climate advocates were furious when the White House announced the new leasing plan last week, but senior officials, citing the 2021 ruling, said their hands were tied. Biden’s new leasing plan opens up approximately 144,000 acres for new drilling, 80 percent less acreage than the Department of the Interior had originally evaluated for leasing. It also hikes up royalty rates on new leases from 12.5 percent to 18.75 percent. The Biden administration tried to balance its leasing move byreleasing a report yesterday that shows it is on course to produce enough renewable energy to power roughly 9.5 million homes by 2025. Some climate activists weren’t sold. “This is the Biden administration caving to the fossil fuel industry and directly breaking the promises he made on the campaign trail,” Collin Rees, a U.S. program manager at the climate group Oil Change International, told Grist, referring to Biden’s new leasing plan. Biden’s latest decisions don’t have much to do with meeting (or not meeting) his climate goals. They’re not even really about reducing gas prices. Opening up new acreage for drilling won’t affect gas prices for at least a year; it certainly won’t have an impact as soon as the summer, when gas demand peaks. So what’s it really about? “It’s a political move,” Paul Bledsoe, a strategic advisor for the Progressive Policy Institute and a former climate advisor for President Bill Clinton, told Grist. Nearly all of Biden’s domestic energy policies these days are centered around controlling the way American voters perceive his administration. Biden, Bledsoe said, “is playing a four-dimensional game of chess.”
‘One quarter’ of US emissions since 2005 come from fossil fuels on public lands - Carbon Brief - Emissions equivalent to nearly a quarter of the US total since 2005 have come from fossil fuels extracted on the nation’s public lands and waters, according to recent analysis.The study, published in Climatic Change, assesses the volumes of greenhouse gases generated by extracting and burning coal, oil and natural gas from regions owned by the federal government. It also estimates how much this will change over the next decade, concluding that “minimal” reductions to these emissions are expected by 2030, the date by which the US has committed to cutting its emissions to 50-52% below 2005 levels.This analysis was conducted before the Biden administration’s latest announcement that it will open up new federal lands to drilling amid growing pressure to address rising fuel costs.The study’s lead author tells Carbon Brief that unless the government introduces new policies such as a carbon fee added to these fossil fuels, emissions from this sector could remain high long into the future.The study assesses the “lifecycle” emissions from coal, oil and natural gas produced on US federal lands and waters between 2005 and 2019. This includes everything from methane leaking out of pipelines to carbon dioxide (CO2) from burning coal.On average, these emissions amounted to 1,408m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) per year – equivalent to around 23% of domestic US emissions across this 15-year period. Study author Laura Zachary, an energy analyst at Apogee Economics and Policy tells Carbon Brief that this includes both fuels that are used in the US and those that are exported abroad – although previous research has shown that only 4% of the lifecycle emissions are produced outside the US. Only domestic emissions count towards the nation’s climate goals.These values were calculated using data on production and consumption of fossil fuels available from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the US Office of Natural Resources Revenue (ONRR).The researchers then used a combination of EIA’s projections and a machine-learning approach that enabled them to forecast future trends for coal, oil and gas production across public lands and waters, and work out how much emissions they would generate.As the coloured area of the chart below shows, emissions from these fossil fuels have fallen since 2005, mainly due to a decline in coal use, which is shown in dark grey. (The light grey area in the chart indicates total historical US emissions, for comparison, while the red line shows emissions from the energy sector alone.)Most of this drop took place between 2010 and 2016 when gas r apidly replaced a lot of coal in the US power sector. Since then, emissions from this sector have been fairly stable. The study’s modelling, shown by the dotted lines in the chart above, predicts “minimal additional emissions reductions stemming from fuels produced on federal lands and waters”. The findings suggest they will fall by just 6% between 2019 and 2030.The researchers conclude that given the “aggressiveness” of the Biden administration’s upcoming climate target – a 50-52% reduction in domestic emissions by 2030, compared to 2005 – the government “should consider how policies directed at federal lands and waters fit into their broader climate strategy”.
12,000 gallons of petroleum products spilled in Medford, Ore., fire - — Environmental cleanup is underway following a Tuesday fire at a gas station in Medford. The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality said Thursday that over 12,000 gallons of various petroleum products, mostly lube oil, were released into nearby Bear Creek and surrounding areas during the incident. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, and NEXGEN Logistics, LLC are working on the cleanup, which also involves smaller amounts of diesel, gasoline, and kerosene. Absorbent booms have been placed in the creek to help absorb the oil. Crews were also removing petroleum from the creek and its bank. Crews on Friday morning observed small areas of light sheen on the Rogue River downstream of Bear Creek which has prompted the placement of additional hard boom – which traps petroleum – and absorbent boom into areas of Bear Creek downstream of the incident. The agencies are investigating the extent of sheen on the Rogue, DEQ said. Above-ground tanks at the fuel business were being emptied. DEQ said the containers appeared to have remained mostly intact. Officials also said Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife biologists have captured and cleaned several oiled waterfowl that remain under observation. So far officials said no impacts to fish have been observed. EPA set up community air quality monitors and said the air has remained at safe levels. On Friday, the city of Medford identified seven businesses impacted by the fire, the Mail Tribune reported. Authorities are investigating the fire’s cause.
Agencies, Company Continue Oil Spill Cleanup After Fire (AP) — Oil cleanup continues after a gas station fire in Medford last week, state officials said. The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality said Tuesday that the agency and NEXGEN Logistics had collected and disposed of most of the recoverable oil in and around Bear Creek. The agency says more than 20,000 gallons of petroleum products – primarily lube oil – were released during the blaze April 12 that spread from the fueling station to adjacent buildings. EPA spokesman Bill Dunbar told the Mail Tribune the estimate of spilled oil increased to over 20,000 gallons after cleanup crews inspected above-ground tanks containing gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products and determined they were “down more.” DEQ and NEXGEN don't have an estimate of how much oil entered Bear Creek through storm water systems and how much the fire consumed. NEXGEN operates the Pacific Pride fuel depot in Medford that burned and is paying for incident response including wildlife rescue and recovery efforts, DEQ said. Some oiled Canada geese and mallard ducks have been taken in by International Bird Rescue for care, DEQ said. The state Department of Fish & Wildlife urges people not to approach or pick up any oiled wildlife and to instead notify trained experts. Occasional sheens along the creek likely will be seen over the next several weeks to months, officials said.
Helms: Blizzard reduced oil and gas production; federal oil lease sale scheduled - North Dakota's daily oil and gas production in February was virtually unchanged from January. In his monthly "Director's Cut" briefing , state mineral resources director Lynn Helms said the state produced 1,089,193 barrels per day in February. In January, that number was 1,088.613 barrels per day. But Hems said preliminary reports show the recent blizzard reduced that daily production number. "It looks like about a 25 percent drop in production, due to the blizzard," Helms said. He won't have the4 actual numbers for April for a few months. "At least during the blizzard, we would have dropped below a million barrels a day, with probably 25 percent of our production shut in because of an inability to transport oil, and to keep things operating if they went down," Helms said. Helms said he thinks about half that reduced production has come back. The federal Bureau of Land Management has scheduled an oil and gas lease sale in June, involving tracts in North Dakota and Montana. This comes after the Department canceled plans for a lease sale in the first quarter of 2022. "The North Dakota parcels was a ditto of what was supposed to be auctioned off last month," Helms told reporters. Helms said the number of leases in Montana were reduced. BLM has also decided the royalty rate for those leases will be 18.75 percent, up from 12 percent. Helms said he doesn’t know what affect, if any, the increased royalty rate will have on that sale. "I will say this, that the tracts ready for lease in North Dakota are prime acreage," Helms said. "Industry is still going to want them." The sale is scheduled June 28th.
Pipeline Authority director: Proposed crude oil pipeline shows continued confidence in the Bakken - The director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority said the announcement of a crude oil pipeline to be built from McKenzie County to Baker, Montana shows continued confidence in the Bakken. The pipeline is proposed by Bridger. It would be a 16 inch line, that could carry 105,000 barrels of Bakken crude per day, expandable to 250,000 barrels a day. Once that oil gets to Baker, it would be taken to either Guernsey, Wyoming or Cushing, Oklahoma. "Pipeline systems are not built on speculation," said Authority Director Justin Kringstad. "In early 2021, there were some open seasons held for folks to commit to this specific project." Kringstad said pipelines would not get built unless there are shipper commitments. "It is encouraging to see these projects move forward, that there's additional confidence in production and the need for new transport options and marketing options out of North Dakota," Kringstad said. Kringstad said this is the only large-scale oil pipeline project on the docket right now.
The Rights of Nature movement and wild rice could stop Line 3 expansion - Rights of Nature – an innovative legal movement that protects water, animals and ecosystems by giving them legal rights – might stop a pipeline. In 2018, Frank Bibeau, an attorney for the White Earth Nation, helped the tribe write a law that recognized the rights of wild rice, which they call Manoomin, or “good berry”, to “exist, flourish, regenerate, and evolve.” The law relies on a section of an 1837 treaty between the Ojibwe and the U.S. government.In Minnesota, wild rice, and the waters it depends on, are in danger from climate change and the expansion of Line 3, a controversial pipeline operated by a Canadian energy company and fiercely opposed by Indigenous people and environmental activists. The pipeline’s proposed corridor would run directly through wild rice beds and could threaten the environmental health of the whole area. In 2021, he used the Rights of Manoomin law to sue the State of Minnesota over the construction of the pipeline. “I couldn’t figure out how to get authority over them to compel them to do anything we might want to do. And right in my brain, you know, it just clicked,” Bibeau said. “Wild rice is mentioned specifically in the 1837 Treaty. It talks about how we retain the rights to hunt fish and gather wild rice on the lakes and rivers and lands that we’re ceding. Well, that’s huge.” In a setback for the case in March, the White Earth Ojibwe Appellate Court dismissed the tribe’s own lawsuit. The ruling said that the court does not have jurisdiction over non-tribal member activities on off-reservation land. The case is still awaiting a decision from a Federal appeals court over that exact question. Since Bibeau first developed Rights of Manoomin, other tribes have used it as a model. In 2019, the Yurok Tribe in Northern California adopted a resolution recognizing the rights of the Klamath River. In Seattle, the Sauk-Suiattle Indian Tribe is suing the city over its hydroelectric dams on behalf of salmon. Bibeau believes that these two cases will be the next step in the growing Indigenous Rights of Nature movement and have the potential to lead to widespread use by tribes across the country.
Trans Mountain Expansion Reaches Halfway Mark - Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion (TMX) has reportedly reached “a major milestone” by passing its halfway mark to completion. The oil pipeline system reported that since August 2019, about 20,000 workers cleared 344 miles of right-of-way, laid 247 miles of pipe and made 32 trenchless river and stream crossings. “The way we are constructing this project reflects a new approach to building major projects in Canada,” said acting President Rob Van Walleghem in a progress report. The project is intended to roughly triple the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 b/d on the 690-mile route across Alberta and British Columbia. Pipeline hurdles and increased costs have increasingly stretched the project’s price tag and timeline. The original line was completed in 32 months, from incorporation with a federal government charter in 1951 to its first delivery in 1953 from Edmonton to the suburban Burnaby shoreline of Vancouver Harbor. The greenfield construction project cost C$93 million ($74.4 million). Adjusted for inflation, the original price tag works out to C$975 million ($780 million), according to the Bank of Canada. In contrast, TMX started work 15 years ago with its first leg built between 2007-08 across the Rocky Mountains and the Alberta-British Columbia (BC) boundary, using a clause in the 1951 pipeline corporate charter that granted permission for a single capacity addition job. The full expansion project stayed on hold for five years. Oil shippers largely waited until 2013 before inking transportation contracts that enabled TMX to proceed. Contested regulatory approval hearings, conflict between the Alberta and BC governments, environmental and native opposition, and community resistance led the line’s last investor-owned proprietor, Kinder Morgan Inc., to drop TMX. The Canadian government bought Trans Mountain for C$4.5 billion ($3.6 billion) in 2018. It then helped steer TMX into construction through multiple protest lawsuits and a second contested regulatory and federal cabinet approval process. When first approved in 2016, TMX costs were estimated at C$7.4 billion ($5.9 billion). In February, the latest reported estimate nearly tripled to C$21.4 billion ($17 billion). The completion target date has been delayed for a year until 2023.
Quebec Pulls Trigger & Commits Energy Suicide – Bans All O&G Prod. In the end, we didn’t think they would actually do it–but they did. The province of Quebec, Canada, with a huge supply of Utica Shale gas sitting beneath it, has just passed a new law outlawing all oil and natural gas production throughout the province. It is a breathtaking grab of totalitarian power. It’s also energy suicide. Quebec says it will pay a piddly $79.5 million (US) to expropriate the oil and gas drilling rights of companies owning those rights in the province. We’ve seen estimates that those rights are worth more than $5 billion. Questerre Energy, which owns more than 1 million acres of leases and an estimated 6 Tcf of Utica Shale reserves in the province, is considering its next legal move.
Argentina Looking to Secure Winter Natural Gas Volumes Amid Soaring Cost of LNG - Argentina took a step towards securing additional natural gas supplies for this upcoming Southern Cone winter with a new agreement with neighboring Bolivia. The agreement guarantees Argentina will receive 14 Mm3/d of gas from Bolivia from May to September, the same volume of imports as last winter. Bolivia had initially said it would send out about half of this to Argentina this year. Additionally, Argentine President Alberto Fernández said that in the event of excess volumes being available in Bolivia, Argentina would “have priority.” In separate talks, Argentine officials reached an agreement with Brazil to import electricity during the winter months in order to be able to divert some natural gas from power plants to the industrial and residential segments. Argentina traditionally imports liquefied natural gas (LNG) through its two floating storage and regasification units in winter to meet higher seasonal demand. But given the war in Ukraine amid an already tight global market, LNG is less attractive than in previous years. Although Argentina has sufficient production to export gas in summer months, the country is also heavily reliant on natural gas. The country uses gas for 58% of its total energy consumption, according to Buenos Aires-based IAE Argentine Energy Institute. The costs of the Bolivian gas would be $12.18/MMBtu, energy secretary DarÃo MartÃnez said. This is about double Henry Hub, but significantly lower than European benchmark prices, which have been as high as $70 this year. The Bolivian imports would save the country $769 million and replace 14 LNG cargoes during the winter months, MartÃnez said.
PM does not think it makes sense to seal shale gas wells, minister says - Boris Johnson has told the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, that it does “not make sense” to seal its shale gas wells, the business secretary has revealed, amid tensions with his department which has repeatedly denied the government will change its position on fracking. Johnson’s spokesperson opened the door to a shift in the UK’s position on fracking on Wednesday, saying that “all options” would be considered before the forthcoming energy strategy is completed. A No 10 source confirmed it was under review. Labour said the government should double its onshore wind capacity – a measure which No 10 sources said was also under discussion – as well as recommitting to nuclear, as part of a five-point plan for energy security released by Ed Miliband. Kwarteng, who has been a public sceptic about the benefits of fracking, insisted the government’s position had not changed, but he gave the strongest indication yet that the prime minister could change course on the order that shale gas wells will be closed with concrete by 30 June. “In conversation with my right honourable friend the prime minister, we were clear that it didn’t necessarily make any sense to concrete over the wells. We’re still in conversations about that,” he told the House of Commons. Amid tensions with backbenchers and rightwing campaign groups, Johnson’s spokesperson said the energy supply strategy would “consider all options, given the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the effect that that’s having on oil and gas prices.” A source at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) said Kwarteng “accepted that fracking would not make a difference” to gas prices, but suggested the energy strategy could open the door to new fracking only if new safety evidence emerged, similar to the phrasing of the Tory manifesto. The source expressed scepticism any new scientific basis would in fact emerge. Earlier this week, Kwarteng tweeted: “The wholesale price of gas has quadrupled in UK and Europe. Additional UK production won’t materially affect the wholesale market price. This includes fracking – UK producers won’t sell shale gas to UK consumers below the market price. They’re not charities.”
To fight climate change, and now Russia, too, Zurich turns off natural gas - European officials are debating whether they can stop buying natural gas imports from Russia. Many say it can't be done. But the biggest city in Switzerland — Zurich — is already taking ambitious steps to wean itself off gas. It's shutting down the flow of gas to whole parts of the city. Zurich started down this path a decade ago to save money and fight climate change. The plan provoked controversy at first. Today, as the city's residents install alternatives to gas heating, there appears to be broad support for the switch — in part, because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. About half of Switzerland's natural gas supply comes from Russia. "Attitudes have changed once again, dramatically," says Rainer Schöne, a spokesman for Energie 360°, Zurich's city-owned gas utility. "Today, it's clear. People want to, and have to, move away from fossil gas." Zurich's experience may offer lessons to other cities around the world that are encouraging residents to switch away from natural gas appliances but are not, so far, shutting down the infrastructure that delivers it. Zurich's move to abandon gas was driven in part by economics. The city wanted to expand a "district heating" system that uses excess heat from a waste incinerator on the edge of the city, a modern plant outfitted with the latest pollution control technology. The incinerator — supplemented by other facilities that burn wood or gas — heats water, and that hot water or steam circulates through underground pipes to homes and businesses that tap it as a heat source. It made little sense for the city to maintain both hot water and gas pipelines side by side, says Zurich's energy commissioner, Silvia Banfi Frost. "It's quite clear that we don't want to have parallel networks for supplying heat," she says. In 2011, city officials announced that they would start shutting down gas service within five years in one part of the city that's well-served by district heating. This area, historically dominated by industry and apartment buildings, is home to 93,000 people. But protests erupted. The plan "was indeed a shock" to many people who relied on gas, says Schöne. Residents argued that they'd received too little notice and that they were being forced to buy costly replacements for their gas appliances. So officials backed off, promising to compensate people who had to replace gas furnaces that were less than 20 years old. Zurich also delayed the start of the gas shutdown to 2021. Now, however, it's underway. Some residents of Zurich, especially those in single-family homes, can't easily connect to the district heating system and have to find alternatives. Ernst Danner is a member of Zurich's City Parliament from the centrist Evangelical People's Party. He lives in a single-family home, and he installed an electric heat pump that draws warmth from water circulating through pipes that go deep underground. It cost him just over $40,000 after tax breaks and city subsidies, but it also cut his heating bill in half. Over the lifetime of the system, he says, "I pay a bit more, but it's not that much more, and it's more ecological." Many of his neighbors, Danner says, have installed less-costly "air-source" heat pumps that draw heat from the air outside. "Those I know are very happy with their heat pumps. It's very good!" he says
Italy prime minister: EU can cut Russian energy dependence sooner than thought — Europe can reduce energy dependence on Russia quicker than previously estimated, Mario Draghi said in an interview with Corriere della Sera. “Diversification is possible and feasible relatively quickly, shorter than we imagined just a month ago,” the Italian prime minister said after reaching an agreement to increase gas imports from Algeria. “We have gas in storage and will have new gas from other suppliers,” Draghi said, adding that the affects of any “containment measures” would be mild. “We are talking about a 1-2 degrees reduction in heating temperatures and similar variations for air conditioners.” Italy’s proposal to cap prices for natural gas used to generate power in order to reduce dependence on Russia is “gaining consensus” among other European countries, Draghi said in his first newspaper interview since he took office in February 2021. “Europe continues to finance Russia by purchasing oil and gas, among other things, at a price that has no relation to historical valuesand production costs,” he said. Italy currently gets about 40% of its gas from Russia, and Draghi has sought alternative sources since President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February. He also said that he’s starting to agree with those who say that talking to Putin is “useless” and “a waste of time.” “I have the impression that the horror of war with its carnage, with what they have done to children and women, is completely independent of the words and phone calls that are made.” ”
Europe Braces for Diesel Deluge - Europe’s diesel imports are set to soar to levels last seen before the pandemic, even as cargoes from top-supplier Russia subside. Shipments of diesel-type fuels to the continent are expected to jump to 1.45 million barrels a day this month, the highest since August 2019, according to Bloomberg calculations using data from energy analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. Flows from Russia will account for 43% of the April total -- shrinking to the lowest since December -- compared with an average of 56% for all of last year. Europe is racing to diversify its energy supplies following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and many companies in the oil industry are avoiding Russian cargoes amid an evolving raft of trade sanctions. Shipments from other regions are now more than compensating for the loss of Russian diesel supplies. “This jump in flows is the response from European buyers seeking to lower exposure to or self-sanctioning Russian diesel,” said Jay Maroo, senior market analyst at Vortexa. “Non-Russian origin diesel imports into Europe have almost doubled month-to-month in April.” Cargoes from the Middle East are expected to more than double on a monthly basis, reaching the highest level since October 2020. Imports from India are set to hit a six-month high. Diesel exports from the U.S. have also jumped, pushing arrivals in Europe to the highest in nine months. Europe’s diesel crack -- the difference between the price of the fuel versus crude oil -- surged to record levels after the start of the war in Ukraine. A busy refinery maintenance period has also contributed to Europe’s market tightness. “Europe has been the region where diesel cracks have been the highest, to pull in cargoes from other regions,” said Jonathan Leitch, an oil analyst at Turner, Mason & Co. “These cargoes are needed to meet strong demand currently and to make up for expected shortfalls in Russian diesel imports.” Europe still remains heavily reliant on Russian diesel, and supplies of any origin are still allowed to be traded on the continent, even as international sanctions mount on Moscow. .
Russia Ready To Sell Oil At Any Price - Russia is ready to sell crude oil at pretty much any price, but only to friendly countries, Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov told Russian news agency Interfax.Commenting on oil price forecasts, Shulginov said that these will need to be revised soon in light of the changes in the geopolitical and economic situation. He added that while a price range of between $80 and $150 per barrel of crude was possible, Russia was ready to sell its oil at any price range because its priority was to keep its oil industry going."A price range of $80 to $150 per barrel is generally possible," Shulginov told Interfax, "but it is not our job to play guesswork with prices. Our job is to ensure the continue operation of the oil industry. We are ready to sell friendly countries oil and oil products at any price range."Separately, commenting on news about foreign companies' exit from the Russian energy industry, Shulginov said this exit is, for now, hypothetical. These companies, he said, would first need to find a buyer for their Russian business.The minister's statement suggests sanctions, although not directly targeting Russia's oil industry, are beginning to bite. With lower sales due to the sanctions, Russia may soon need to start shutting down wells because it is running out of storage space, and new facilities are being built with haste.The limited storage capacity has been a problem for a while but has only come into the spotlight now that Russian oil cargos are being shunned by Western buyers. According to the International Energy Agency, Western sanctions could reduce Russian exports by some 3 million barrels daily this quarter.This would mean a 3-million-bpd shortfall in global supply with no immediate replacement. Also, if fuel exports are included, the shortfall could become even greater, as OPEC's secretary-general warned the EU this week during talks in Vienna."We could potentially see the loss of more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and other liquids exports, resulting from current and future sanctions or other voluntary actions," Mohammed Barkindo said. "Considering the current demand outlook, it would be nearly impossible to replace a loss in volumes of this magnitude."
Oil firms spill 1,545 barrels of crude oil in Q1’22 - By Prince Okafor - Oil and gas companies operating in the Niger Delta spilled 1,545 barrels of crude oil, an equivalent of 246, 000 litres, in three months, from January to March 2022, according to data obtained from the National Oil Spill Detection Response Agency, NOSDRA. Although this indicates 52.6 percent less than the 3,262 barrels of crude oil spilled in the corresponding period of 2021, the development reflects the severe impact of environmental pollution on the nation’s economy due to crude oil exploration. On a company by company basis, the report revealed that Heritage Energy Operational Service Limited recorded the highest spills, with 404.3 barrels of crude oil spilled in 31 incidents; followed by Shell Petroleum Development Company, SPDC, with 404.3 barrels of crude oil spilled in 31 incidents. Others on the list include Empire energy, 314.47 barrel of crude oil spilled in one incident; Eroton Exploration and Production Limited spilled 69.57 barrels of crude oil in one incidents; Nigerian Agip Oil Company, NAOC, spilled 49.7 barrels of crude oil in 16 incidents; while Enageed Resource Limited spilled 15 barrels in two incidents. While the value of the crude oil spilled might not be huge, the damage to the environment, the disruption to the livelihoods of individuals within the impacted communities, and the manpower and financial resources required to clean up the spill and return the environment to its original state, run into billions of dollars. Reacting to the development, the former Chairman, Petroleum Association of Nigeria, Bank-Anthony Okoroafor, said, “It cost millions of dollars to clean a barrel of a crude oil spill. The cost of managing oil spillage is very huge, it cannot be quantified because the cost to human life is more. Environmental degradation caused by the spillage affects human life. A lot of people in the next 10 years or more will suffer from serious lungs problems, cancer among others.
Petronet considering fourth Indian LNG facility -Petronet LNG may look at constructing a fourth liquefied natural gas import facility in its native India as gas demand in the country continues to grow, according to chief executive AK Singh. "We believe gas demand will continue to grow and we will need avenues to meet such requirement," he told the Press Trust of India in an interview. "We could possibly look at setting up a fourth LNG import and regassification terminal… these are preliminary thoughts, and we will come back to you once plans are firmed up." The company currently operates the 17.5 million tonnes per annum Dahej receiving and regasification terminal, currently undergoing expansion to a capacity of 22.5 million tonnes per annum, and the 5 million tpa Kochi import facility – both of which are land-based terminals. Adding the planned 5 million tpa of additional capacity at Dahej – already the world’s largest import facility - involves construction of new jetty able to also handle propane and ethane shipments, plus an additional LNG storage tanks and bays for the truck-loading of LNG. The company's third LNG import terminal is a planned floating storage and regasification unit-based facility at Gopalpur in the state of Odisha, expected to enter operation within three years. Upstream reported on 6 September 2021 that Petronet LNG had signed a memorandum of understanding with Gopalpur Ports and was looking to finalise details of the commercial and technical terms of this agreement before taking the final investment decision for this project. Gopalpur is envisaged as an initial 4 million tpa FSRU that could later be replaced by a 5 million tpa onshore terminal. Petronet LNG’s touted locations for a fourth LNG import facility includes Gangavaram in Andhra Pradesh, and the remote Andaman and Nicobar Islands that are located nearer to the coasts of Myanmar and Thailand than to the Indian mainland. India’s demand will have to increase to more than 500 million cubic metres per day from the current 165 MMcmd if the government is to meet its goal of boosting the share of natural gasi in the primary energy mix to 15% by 2030. Domestic production today accounts for around half of current consumption, pointing to higher LNG imports. The nation already has other LNG import facilities – not operated by Petronet LNG - at Hazira, Dabhol, Mundra and Ennore.
Iraq may finalise gas deal with Halliburton next month in bid to boost output --Iraq may finalise a gas deal with US oil company Halliburton to drill wells in the western gasfield of Akkas next month as Opec’s second-biggest producer seeks to boost production.Iraq's Cabinet may reactivate the agreement with the company to help the Oil Ministry obtain clear data on the output capacity of Akkas field, Iraq's Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar said in an interview with Al-Forat Network TV channel on Saturday. The agreement “will depend on the data we get from the exploration and well-drilling operations”, Mr Abdul-Jabbar said.Iraq is trying to increase its oil and gas output to capitalise on higher energy prices. The country relies heavily on the sale of hydrocarbons for revenue to fuel its economy and benefits from price increases to accelerate growth. Oil prices, which rose 68 per cent last year amid a faster-than-expected economic rebound, have been extremely volatile this year, rocked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Brent, the global benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, is up more than 40 per cent since the start of this year after falling from a 14-year high when it nearly touched $140 per barrel last month. Iraq is aiming to sell its oil for an average of $106 to $107 per barrel this month if prices remain at current levels, Mr Abdul-Jabbar said. The country exported $11.07 billion worth of oil in March, the highest level in 50 years, as crude prices soared amid supply concerns due to Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine, the oil ministry said.Iraq is also keen to tie up with more international energy companies to invest in its energy sector after oil majors such as ExxonMobil and Lukoil considered leaving the country due to political instability and security concerns.In September, Iraq signed an agreement worth $27bn with France's TotalEnergies for four oil and gas projects.TotalEnergies will make an initial investment of $10bn, with engineering investment on projects to start “immediately”, the company's chairman and chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said.South Korea's state-run Korea Gas (Kogas) had signed a deal to develop the Akkas field in Al Anbar province in 2011, but the field was seized by ISIS and recaptured by Baghdad in late 2017. The field is believed to have reserves of 5.6 trillion cubic feet of gas.
China's gasoline exports rebound in March as COVID restrictions weigh - China's gasoline exports jumped in March from the previous two months as refiners strived to ease inventory pressure amid tepid domestic demand. The exported volume was nonetheless 26% lower than a year ealier, because of cuts to export quotas. China shipped out 1.16 million tonnes of gasoline last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Monday. That compared with 1.02 million tonnes in February and 1.56 million tonnes in March 2021. The daily average in March was 37,419 tonnes, up from 31,864 in the previous two months, the first to be affected by the quota cuts. Diesel exports reached 670,000 tonnes in March, which was up from a seven-year low in February but still 76% short of 2.81 million tonnes a year before. Jet kerosene exports were up 7.2% on March 2021, at 770,000 tonnes, the data showed. In December, Beijing slashed 2022 quotas for exporting fuel products, except marine fuel, with the aim of shutting excess refining capacity, balancing domestic supply and demand, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Then, in March, it prompted increased production to secure supply as the Ukraine crisis drove up interational prices. Yet measures to reduce mobility in response to COVID outbreaks have cut domestic gasoline and diesel demand and left refiners with too much stock, prompting them to lower operating rates and use quotas quickly to export more. Analysts and traders do not expect China's fuel demand to pick up before mid-May. So exporters meanwhile have an incentive to further increase exports. Customs data on Monday also showed China's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports slid 17% from a year earlier to 4.63 million tonnes in March.
OPEC Is Treading Lightly As Bearish News Mounts - This week saw some good news finally for oil consumers. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency revised down their demand projections, suggesting that prices finally had some meaningful downward potential. But OPEC stands ready to change track. "Severe new lockdown measures amid surging Covid cases in China have led to a downward revision in our expectations for global oil demand in 2Q22 and for the year as a whole," the IEA wrote in its latest Oil Market Report this week.The agency also noted that OECD members consumed less oil than previously expected, which led the IEA to revise down its demand outlook for the year by 260,000 bpd from last month's OMR to a total 99.4 million bpd.At the same time, the agency cited stable and significant production additions during the first quarter of the year, noting that it was led by non-OPEC producers. Whenever a production increase is led by non-OPEC producers, it's worth watching OPEC even more closely than usual for its response.This response has yet to come, but the cartel itself is also revising down its outlook for demand for this year. And it is revising it down by a lot more than the IEA. Global oil demand was going to be 480,000 bpd lower than previously expected, OPEC said in the latest edition of its Monthly Oil Market Report. The cartel cited slower economic growth because of the war in Ukraine as one reason for the revision, and Covid-related lockdowns in China as another.As for supply, the IEA seems to be perfectly calm. After sounding the alarm about the potential loss of 3 million bpd of Russian oil exports because of Western sanctions, the agency now said that the coordinated release of a total 240 million barrels of crude, of which 180 million bpd to be released by the United States, would offset the effect of lost Russian supply.It seems that the IEA is assuming that the loss of Russian supply will be temporary—just as the effect of the reserve release will only last for as long as the release lasts, if not less. And OPEC may yet serve a nasty surprise to IEA members ready to tap their own strategic reserves to normalize benchmark prices.Earlier this month, OPEC met with European Union representatives only to tell them that it would not be stepping in to help if Russian oil exports were completely shut off. "We could potentially see the loss of more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and other liquids exports, resulting from current and future sanctions or other voluntary actions. Considering the current demand outlook, it would be nearly impossible to replace a loss in volumes of this magnitude," said the secretary-general of the cartel, Mohammed Barkindo. Yet with demand forecasts being revised, OPEC might just decide to revise its production plans as well. With millions of Russian oil out of the (official) picture and a very slim chance of Iranian barrels coming back for the time being, it's up to OPEC and the U.S. to fill the gap. If, that is, they want to.
Saudi Feb crude exports hit near two-year high – JODI (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s crude exports in February rose to 7.307 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest level since April 2020, official data showed on Monday. Crude oil exports in February rose 4.4% from about 7 million bpd reported for January. The world’s largest oil exporter’s February crude production also rose to its highest level in nearly two years at 10.225 million bpd from 10.145 million bpd in the previous month. Saudi Arabia’s domestic crude refinery throughput fell 0.271 million bpd to 2.506 million bpd in February while direct crude burn fell 111,000 bpd to 291,000 bpd. Monthly export figures are provided by Riyadh and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), which published them on its website.
OPEC+ Missed Its March Output Quota By 1.45 Million Bpd - The gap between target levels and actual production of the OPEC+ group further widened in March to over 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) as Russian crude output started to feel the sting of the sanctions and self-sanctioning of buyers and was 300,000 bpd below target, according to an OPEC+ report seen by Reuters.Last month, the producers in the OPEC+ alliance saw their combined crude oil production lag behind the quota by 1.45 million bpd, with the compliance rate shooting up to a record 157 percent since the start of the 10-million-bpd production cut agreed upon in April 2020.Russia’s crude oil production, in particular, averaged 300,000 bpd below target at 10.018 million bpd, per secondary sources in the report seen by Reuters.The OPEC+ crude production in March fell further behind the target levels after February output was more than 1 million bpd below the collective quota and the compliance rate was 136 percent.In March, Russia began to feel the pinch from the sanctions, according to the latest OPEC+ estimates.Russia’s oil industry is already showing signs of slowing down as Western buyers shun Russian oil while Moscow struggles to replace lost sales in the West with sales in emerging Asian markets. The war Putin started in Ukraine is hitting home: storage capacity is full, infrastructure and shipping logistics prevent Russian from exporting all the oil unwanted in the West to China and India, refineries are cutting run rates as product storage is overflowing, and as a result, companies are scaling back crude production.OPEC only raised its oil production by just 57,000 bpd in March from February, as African members’ struggles to pump more crude partially offset increases at the core OPEC members of the Middle East, OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed last week.Russian oil supply is expected to fall by 1.5 million bpd in April, with shut-ins projected to accelerate to around 3 million bpd from May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report last week. The IEA was ditched by OPEC at its latest meeting as a secondary source provider to assess production
Rystad: Oil Demand To Sink By 1.4 Million Bpd - Global oil demand will drop by 1.4 million barrels per day, according to the latest forecast by Rystad Energy on Friday cited by the National.The 1.4 million bpd loss would sink oil demand to 99.6 million bpd on average, below 2019 levels of 100.2 million bpd. And a rebound in this demand isn’t expected to happy until next year at the soonest, Rystead said.The drop in oil demand will likely come from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, soaring inflation, China’s covid-inspired lockdowns, and supply chain disruptions. And even more oil demand pressure could be applied through future lockdowns or geopolitical issues.“Shrinking demand is a direct result of the impact of lower economic activity globally,” the consultancy said, adding that such a demand decrease could ease today’s tight oil markets, calming oil prices.Rystad isn’t the only one lowering oil demand forecasts. OPEC cut its 2022 oil demand growth forecast by 480,000 bpd on the back of lower expected global economic growth given the war in Ukraine and China’s covid lockdowns.The IEA also cut its oil demand forecast by 260,000 bpd to reflect the return of severe covid lockdowns in China.Meanwhile, the World Bank and the IMF have both cut their overall global growth expectations for this year.But Rystad isn’t changing its outlook for bullish oil prices. According to Rystad, if the Russian war in Ukraine drags on, it will increase oil and gas prices, particularly if the EU ends up banning oil and gas this year.“The Russian war worst case for oil demand is premised on Brent prices reaching $180 per barrel in the fourth quarter, triggering a further economic slowdown and outright destruction of oil demand,” Rystad said.’
Oil tanker stranded off Tunisian coast - A commercial oil tanker carrying more than 750 tons of diesel ran aground overnight from Friday to Saturday in the Gulf of Gabès in southeastern Tunisia. According to the Environment Ministry, the ship sank late Saturday morning due to water seeping into the engine room. Only the bow of the boat was still visible. It’s unclear if it is leaking fuel. As soon as the accident was announced Friday night, the Environment Ministry announced the activation of the national emergency response plan, put in place over the potential threat of maritime pollution. That consists of experts, marine guards, and civil protection agents being deployed to the danger zone, and buffers such as tarpaulin put around the perimeter to contain any leak. The “Xelo,” which was flying the flag of Equatorial Guinea, had left the port of Damietta in Egypt heading for Malta, but was diverted from its route due to bad weather conditions. The crew was saved by teams from the Maritime Guard and Civil Protection.
Tunisian Environment Ministry attempts to contain diesel spill after oil tanker runs aground - Arabian Business - A commercial Guinean ship named XELO carrying 750 tonnes of diesel has run aground off the coast of Gabes in the South of Tunisia, and has sunk, according to the environment ministry of Tunisia. The wrecked commercial cargo ship, flying the flag of Equatorial Guinea and coming from the Egyptian port of Damietta, did not reach its final destination, Malta, due to bad weather conditions and rough seas, according to the environment department. The ship sank after water seeped into the engine room, Bloomberg reported, after raising the alarm of a major oil spill. Tunisian authorities intervened and rescued all the crew. The nation’s environment ministry has placed barriers and have put up a perimeter around the ship to contain the diesel spill. Divers have been mobilised to examine the extent of the spill and the infiltrated fuel will be pumped out, the ministry added. Tunisian Environment Minister Leila Chikhaoui went to Gabes to examine the situation and coordinate interventions to undertake the necessary preventive measures. The authorities had already announced the implementation of the National Marine Pollution Emergency Response Plan, to contain the damage, state-run news agency, Wam reported.. The Tunisian environment ministry’s response is being undertaken in close coordination with the ministries of defense, interior, and transport as well as the Tunisian customs. On Saturday, April 16, the environment ministry said it was following with ”concern” the environmental effects of the sinking of the cargo ship, adding all efforts are being made to avoid “an environmental disaster”.
Oil Tanker With 750 Tons Of Diesel Sinks Off Tunisia -A tanker carrying 750 tons of diesel fuel from Egypt to Malta sank Saturday off Tunisia’s southeast coast, but there is a possibility of avoiding a large spill. The tanker in question – named Xelo – sought shelter in Tunisian waters from bad weather before going down in the Gulf of Gabes. Environment Minister Leila Chikhaoui said that the situation was under control. She added that she was traveling to Gabes “to evaluate the situation […] and take necessary preventive decisions in coordination with the regional authorities.” Also, the spokesman for a court in Gabes Mohamed Karray said: “There are minimal leaks, which are not even visible to the naked eye, and fortunately the oil is evaporating, so there should not be a disaster in the Gulf of Gabes.” The Tunisian environment ministry said that the 63-yard-long and 9.8-yard-wide tanker began taking water around four miles offshore in the Gulf of Gabes and that the engine room was engulfed. It said that Tunisian authorities evacuated the seven-member crew. The Georgian captain, four Turks, and two Azerbaijanis were briefly hospitalized for checks and were later moved to a hotel. Furthermore, authorities activated the national emergency plan for the prevention of marine pollution with the aim of ‘bringing the situation under control and avoiding the spread of pollutants.’ The environment ministry added that the defense, interior, transport, and customs ministries were working to avoid a marine environmental disaster in the region and limit its impact. Before the ship sank, the ministry described the situation as ‘alarming but under control.’ The Gulf of Gabes where the ship sank is a fishing area but has suffered from pollution from phosphate processing industries based nearby and the presence of a pipeline bringing oil from southern Tunisia. After the vessel sank, divers inspected the hull of the tanker and detected no leaks. The inspection was carried out by divers accompanied by the ship's captain and engineer. Xelo, after sinking settled on its side at a depth of around 65 feet. Access to the vessel is sealed off by Tunisia's military. The valves were closed, and the team of divers ensured they were sealed and intact. Authorities claimed that the situation was not dangerous and that the outlook was positive. The ship is currently stable as it ran aground on sand. The priority now was to pump the diesel fuel and prevent any spillage or pollution. An Italian ship specialized in cleaning up marine pollution will be sent alongside a team of divers to aid with efforts. The previous incident in Tunisia occurred in October 2018. Tunisian freighter Ulysse hit the Cyprus-based Virginia anchored some 20 miles off northern Corsica. As a consequence, hundreds of tons of fuel spilled into the Mediterranean. It took several days to disentangle the boats and pump some 18,360 cubic feet of fuel that escaped the tanks.
Protests disrupt oil production in Libya, worsening Russia supply problems On Monday, oil prices rose for the fourth session in a row as Libya sees production disruptions, adding to the market dilemma due toWestern sanctions on Russian exports. According to Bloomberg, the Sharara field in western Libya closed down after protesters mobilized at the site, demanding that the Libyan Prime Minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, resign. El Feel oil deposit has also been closed down for the same reason. Brent crude oil settled Monday's price at $113.16, up $1.46 or 1.3%. Last week, Brent gained 8.7% after two weeks of losses which ate 13% of crude prices. West Texas Intermediate finished Monday at $108.21, up $1.26 or 1.2%. WTI increased 8.8% last week, after a 13% loss over two previous weeks. This year, Libya's oil production averaged just over 1 million barrels a day, a decrease from 2021, 1.2 million, according to media reports. This drop is bleeding the economy millions of dollars in revenue. Recently, the International Energy Agency warned that around 3 million barrels a day of Russian oil could be halted from May onward due to the sanctions implemented on Russian oil and exports. According to the Interfax news agency on Friday, Russian oil output has been on a decrease in April, declining 7.5% from March till the first half of April.
Protest forces Libya’s national oil firm to close Al-Fil field --Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) has announced the suspension of production at a major oil field in the country’s south, declaring a “force majeure” due to a protest at the site. Located some 750km (466 miles) southwest of Tripoli, the Al-Fil field is jointly managed by the NOC and Italian energy giant ENI and produces about 70,000 barrels of oil per day. The field was already forced to close temporarily in early March when an armed group shut down valves delivering crude. “On Saturday… the Al-Fil field was subjected to arbitrary closure attempts, due to the entry of a group of individuals and the prevention of the field’s workers from continuing production,” the NOC said in a post to Facebook on Sunday. The firm added that the field was shut down on Sunday, marking the second closure in a matter of weeks and “making it impossible for the NOC to implement its contractual obligations”. Declaring force majeure is a legal move that allows involved parties to free themselves from contractual obligations when factors beyond control, such as fighting or natural disasters, make meeting those obligations impossible. According to Libya’s state news agency, the closure comes after an unidentified group entered the site and declared that they were halting production “until a government appointed by parliament takes office in the capital”. Libya has recently found itself again with two rival governments after the eastern-based parliament in February appointed a new prime minister in a direct challenge to the UN-backed government in Tripoli. Fathi Bashagha, a former interior minister, was named prime minister in February by the House of Representatives, which has been based in Tobruk. Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who is based in the capital, Tripoli, has refused to step down as interim prime minister and insists he will hand over power only to an elected government.
Oil Futures Slip as China's Slowdown Offsets Libyan Outage - Reversing overnight gains, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange slipped in early trade Monday as investors balanced a sharp decline in China's consumption tied to COVID-19 shutdowns of major cities against another disruption of Libyan oil production after violent protests shut down operations at the north African nation's largest oilfields. Libya's National Oil Corporation on Sunday declared force majeure on oil exports from the El-Feel oilfield in the country's southwest, affecting 90,000 barrels (bbl) in daily output. In a statement, the company said oil production was halted until further notice after a group of armed civilians entered the facility and halted operations. Tribal leaders in southern Libya earlier announced they were halting production from the oilfield until Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh hands over power to the newly appointed government of Fathi Bashagha. They also called for the sacking of Mustafa Sanalla, the head of the NOC, and for the appointment of a new board for the company. Political turmoil in Libya prompted a 370,000 barrels per day (bpd) decline in March oil production, according to secondary sources from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with supplies likely to take a further hit in April. NOC formally suspended loadings from the eastern port of Zueitina and said it was the "start of a painful wave of closures." The NOC has also declared force majeure -- a clause in contracts allowing exports to be stopped -- from Mellitah, a western port fed by Sharara and El Feel. Offsetting bullish headlines, economic data out of Asia's largest economy, China, showed sharp contraction in retail sales and industrial production last month after health authorities shut down entire cities and regions in some instances to slow the spread of COVID-19. China's retail sales, a main gauge of consumption, fell 3.5% year-on-year in March, the first contraction since August 2020. An unexpected outbreak of omicron cases has thrown several domestic cities into short-term disarray, including the country's financial hub Shanghai in eastern China and heavy manufacturing center, Jilin, in northeastern China. The Shanghai lockdown is particularly concerning as the city acts as financial hub of China's giant $18 trillion economy. Coronavirus infections have kept growing in China with a total caseload that has now exceeded 200,000 during the latest omicron outbreak, making Shanghai the worst hit city in China's mainland since 2020. . In early trading, NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate were little changed near $107 bbl and ICE June Brent contract edged higher to $112 bbl. NYMEX May RBOB futures were down 2.25 cents to $3.3589 gallon and May ULSD contract fell 4.85 cents to near $3.8065 gallon.
Oil Gains as Libya Shuts Its Largest Oil Field Amid Protests -- Oil rose with the shutdown of Libya’s biggest oil field, which is straining an already under-supplied market and overshadowing signals that China’s lockdowns are weighing on its economic growth. Brent crude futures rose above $113 a barrel for the first time since late March and West Texas Intermediate traded around $108. Global markets face further interruptions to oil supplies after demonstrations against Libya’s Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah shut down Sharara, the country’s biggest oil field. Protesters also forced two Libyan ports to stop loading, with output halted at the El Feel field. Earlier, prices fell as Chinese economic data signaled bearish news for the market. China reported its biggest decline in consumer spending and worst unemployment rate since the first months of the pandemic, adding another threat to global growth. Oil rallied above $100 this year as the war in Ukraine disrupted an already-tight market, with some traders shunning Russian crude. The surge in prices spurred the U.S. and allies to announce the release of millions of barrels from strategic reserves to quell inflationary pressures. Nonetheless, global supplies remain tight with the European Union considering banning Russian crude and with OPEC+ declining to raise their output pace. A key oil market indicator suggests that bullish sentiment is rising. Brent so-called prompt spread, the difference between its two nearest contracts, surged to $1.15 a barrel, up from 21 cents a week ago. The recent rebound comes as European Union is considering banning Russian oil and gas exports, exacerbating an already tight market. Any “embargo decision by the EU would be a catalyst for even higher oil prices,” “Realistically, it would not be viable to replace” all of the crude that would be disrupted from a European Union ban on Russian crude.
Oil Rises Over 1% as Libya Outages Add to Russia Supply Fears -- (Reuters) -Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday, with Brent crude topping $114 a barrel, as outages in Libya deepened concern over tight global supply amid the Ukraine crisis. Adding to supply pressures from sanctions on Russia, Libya's National Oil Corp on Monday said "a painful wave of closures" had begun hitting its facilities and declared force majeure at Al-Sharara oilfield and other sites. "With global supplies now so tight, even the most minor disruption is likely to have an outsized impact on prices," said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose $1.46, or 1.3%, to settle at $113.16 a barrel. The contract rose to $114.84 a barrel, its highest since March 28. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $1.26, or 1.2%, to settle at $108.21 a barrel. The benchmark hit $109.81 a barrel, also the highest since March 28. Deeper supply losses loom. Russian production declined by 7.5% in the first half of April from March, Interfax reported on Friday, and EU governments said last week the bloc's executive was drafting proposals to ban Russian crude. Those comments came before an escalation in the Ukraine war. Ukrainian authorities said missiles struck Lviv early on Monday and explosions rocked other cities as Russian forces kept up their bombardments after claiming near full control of the port of Mariupol. In a bearish signal for prices, China's economy slowed in March, taking the shine off first-quarter growth numbers and worsening an outlook already weakened by COVID-19 curbs. Data on Monday also showed China refined 2% less oil in March than a year earlier, with throughput falling to the lowest since October as the surge in crude prices squeezed margins and tight lockdowns reduced demand. Oil surged to the highest since 2008 in March, with Brent briefly topping $134.
Crudes Slide From 3-Week Highs With Growth Outlook in Focus - With the U.S. dollar holding recent gains in early trade Tuesday, oil futures nearest delivery moved lower in tandem with softening equities as investors refocused on a slowing economy in China and deceleration of economic growth across emerging markets tied to surging prices for essential food and fuel imports. The World Bank on Monday downgraded global economic growth this year to 3.2% from 4.1% seen at the start of the year, as record levels of inflation and Russia's invasion of Ukraine continue to weigh on the economic outlook. The single largest factor in the reduced growth forecast was a projected contraction of 4% across Europe and Central Asia, according to World Bank President David Malpass, because of disruptions to trade and logistics brought about by the war. In particular, Russia, ranked as the world's 11th largest economy prior to the Feb. 24 invasion, is seen contracting by 11% this year, which would mark the steepest deceleration of growth since 1994. Russia's Central Bank more than doubled its key interest rate to 20% on Feb. 28 as the first wave of Western sanctions hit before the bank trimmed rates to 17% on April 8. Despite early losses, sentiment in the oil market remains supported by the growing possibility of a European Union-wide embargo on Russian oil imports and unplanned supply outages in Libya, where violent protests shut-in nearly half of the country's 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production. Analysts forecast Libya's oil production could fall by as much as 1 million bpd in coming days after demonstrations closed off the nation's largest oil field, El Sharara, with daily production capacity of 300,000 barrels (bbl). The closure of smaller oil fields of El Feel, Nafoora and Abu Al- Tilf has led to the loss of an additional 200,000 bpd, effectively shutting down operations at the key export ports along Libya's Mediterranean coast. Tribal leaders in charge of the protests demand the ouster of the country's prime minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, and the head of Libya's National Company, Mustafa Sanalla, who has been in control of state-owned oil giant since 2014. Meanwhile, European leaders are said to be working on a sweeping ban of Russian oil imports as part of the next sanction package in response to Moscow's offensive in eastern Ukraine. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed in 2021 EU bought 2.3 million bpd of Russian oil -- almost half of Russia's exports. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate fell $1.42 to trade near $106.79 bbl ahead of expiration Wednesday afternoon, with the next-month June contract narrowing its discount to $0.55 bbl. ICE June Brent futures fell a like amount to near $111.65 bbl. NYMEX May RBOB futures fell 5.28 cents to $3.3253 gallon, and May ULSD contract declined 3.69 cents to $3.8539 gallon.
Oil falls 5% to 107.25 dollar per barrel after IMF cuts growth outlook (Reuters) -Oil prices were down about 5% in volatile trading on Tuesday on demand concerns after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its economic growth forecasts and warned of higher inflation. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell $5.91, or 5.22%, to settle at $107.25 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped $5.65, or 5.22%, to settle at $102.56 a barrel. Prices declined despite lower output from OPEC+, which produced 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) below its targets in March, as Russian output began to decrease following sanctions imposed by the West over its invasion of Ukraine, according to a report from the producer alliance seen by Reuters. Russia produced about 300,000 bpd below its target in March at 10.018 million bpd, based on secondary sources, the report showed. OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allies led by Russia, agreed last month to a monthly oil output boost of 432,000 bpd for May, resisting pressure by major consumers to pump more. The IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth by nearly a full percentage point, citing Russia's invasion, and said that inflation is now a "clear and present danger" for many countries. The bearish outlook added to price pressure from the dollar trading at a two-year high. A firmer greenback makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can dampen demand. [USD/] Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans on Tuesday said the Fed could raise its policy target range to 2.25% to 2.5% by year-end, but if inflation remains high will likely need to hike rates further. Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Monday that U.S. inflation is "far too high" as he repeated his case for increasing interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the year to slow what are now 40-year-high inflation readings. The IMF's lower growth forecast, along with the Strategic Petroleum Reserves reporting that emergency stocks fell by 4.7 million barrels on Monday, is "causing some nervousness," Concerns over demand growth were already in focus after a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday showed U.S. crude oil inventories are likely to have risen last week. China's economy slowed in March, worsening an outlook already weakened by COVID-19 curbs and the conflict in Ukraine. Fuel demand in China, the world's largest oil importer, could begin to pick up as manufacturing plants prepare to reopen in Shanghai. The price decline on Tuesday followed a rise of more than 1% on Monday, when oil prices hit their highest since March 28 on Libyan oil supply disruptions. Libya's National Oil Corp (NOC) warned on Monday of "a painful wave of closures" and declared force majeure on some output and exports as forces in the east expanded their blockade of the sector over a political standoff. NOC on Tuesday declared force majeure at the Brega oil port. United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson on a call with Western leaders on Tuesday underscored the need to increase the pressure on Russia with more sanctions and diplomatic isolation. The possibility of a European Union ban on Russian oil continued to keep the market on edge. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Tuesday said that an embargo at an EU level was in the works.
WTI Gains on Large Crude Draw, USD Pullback From 2-Year High --- Oil futures nearest delivery advanced in pre-inventory trade Wednesday after preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a surprise drop in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories during the week ended April 15, along with a larger-than-expected drawdown from distillate stocks, while an overnight retreat in the U.S. Dollar Index lent further support for the West Texas Intermediate May contract ahead of its expiration Wednesday afternoon. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the value of the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, reversed lower from a two-year high early Wednesday. The greenback's recent gains came on the back of a solid performance by the U.S. economy compared to its global peers, with COVID shutdowns in China and disrupted trade flows in Eurozone clouding their regional outlooks in a post-pandemic recovery. The International Monetary Fund revised lower its forecast for Eurozone's growth this year to 2.2%, down 1.1% from January's forecast, citing the indirect impact of war in Ukraine. "The main channel through which the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia affect the euro area economy is rising global energy prices and energy security," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report released Tuesday. The war has hurt some countries like Italy and Germany more than other European nations because they had "relatively large manufacturing sectors and greater dependence on energy imports from Russia," the IMF said. Overnight data showed industrial production in the 19-nation Eurozone bloc increased 0.7% in February, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine starting on Feb. 24. The data shows eurozone industrial output continued to grow ahead of the war, as production had stabilized at levels seen prior to the pandemic and supply chain problems were diminishing. However, the outlook for the bloc's manufacturing sector is clouded by uncertainty triggered by the conflict with clear risks to output in March and April. On a global scale, IMF revised lower its economic outlook for growth of 3.6% in 2022 and 2023, down from 4.2% annual expansion rate projected in January. For Ukraine, the World Bank estimates over half of the businesses there are closed would slash the country's gross domestic product by 45% this year. Estimates of infrastructure damage exceeding $100 billion by early March, which accounted for about two-thirds of Ukraine's GDP in 2019, are well out of date "as the war has raged on and caused further damage," said the World Bank. Separately, API data reported late Tuesday showed commercial crude oil stocks declined a sizable 4.496 million bbl (barrels) last week compared with market expectations for a 2.2 million bbl build. Crude stocks at the Cushing tank farm in Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. crude benchmark contract, increased 93,000 bbl. For refined fuels, gasoline stocks, according to API, increased 2.933 million bbl against expectations for an 800,000 bbl draw. Distillate stocks were drawn down 1.652 million bbl last week per API, more than estimates for a 900,0000 bbl drawdown to have occurred. In early trading, WTI May futures advanced $1.14 to $103.70 bbl, with the June WTI contract narrowing its discount to the expiring contract to $0.45 bbl. The June Brent contract jumped to $108.46 bbl, up $1.21 on the session. NYMEX RBOB May contract edged up 0.73 cents to $3.2547 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract rallied 3.97 cents to $3.9016 gallon.
Oil Posts Marginal Increase with Tight Global Supply Concerns | Rigzone -Oil edged higher after a tumultuous session where traders weighed concerns about tight global supply with Germany announcing a ban on Russian oil and a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories. West Texas Intermediate settled above $102 on Wednesday after swinging between gains and losses. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that the country plans to stop importing oil from Russia by the end of the year, with natural gas soon to follow, Reuters reported. Earlier the U.S. reported crude stockpiles fell 8.02 million barrels last week, the biggest draw since January 2021 and Russia’s oil output declined in April. Though earlier this week, hawkish comments from the central bank and a downgraded growth forecast from the IMF muddled the future outlook. “Price action tells us two things: first, macro traders are firmly in control of crude markets at the moment,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “Secondly, that the narrative of tight physical markets is stale and may not be able to induce momentum to the upside in the near term.” Oil rallied to the highest level since 2008 last month in the aftermath of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then, crude has seen volatile trading as investors gauge moves by the U.S. and U.K. to ban Russian imports, as well as the impact of major releases from strategic reserves. “The price of oil continues to hold above $100 per barrel and is likely to remain supported around here,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index. “It would take the EU banning Russian oil for the price to really charge higher again and that isn’t looking likely for now.” Germany previously resisted an EU ban on Russian energy exports before announcing its own phase out on Wednesday. Russian oil accounted for over a third of Germany’s oil imports in 2021. - WTI for May delivery, which expired Wednesday, rose 19 cents to settle at $102.75 in New York. The more active June contract rose 14 cents to $102.19 a barrel. Brent for June settlement dropped 45 cents to $106.80 a barrel. In China’s leading commercial hub of Shanghai, carmakers to supermarkets are now starting to resume their operations as the city seeks to recover from the economic toll of an unprecedented lockdown. Kazakhstan -- another source of recent oil supply disruption -- said it expects its main oil-export route to be fully restored this week. Repairs to moorings at the Black Sea port from which its crude is shipped are “basically completed,” and one of the two moorings affected is due to restart full operations Wednesday, news agency Interfax reported, citing the nation’s energy minister. Meanwhile, Russia’s Rosneft PJSC surprised traders in Europe and Asia with offers to sell large amounts of crude at speed, as well as setting out significant changes to the payment process for at least some of the cargoes.
Oil Snaps 2-Day Slide as Supply Issues Back in Focus- Oil prices rose almost 2% Thursday as those who sold crude down in the past two sessions covered their shorts amid a return of the supply issues that had fueled much of this year’s energy rally. Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for crude, settled up $1.53, or 1.4%, at $108.33 per barrel. Brent had lost almost 6% over two previous sessions largely due IMF downgrades of 2022/23 global economic growth and the scare over new Covid deaths in China, the world’s second largest consumer of oil. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, the benchmark for U.S. crude, gained $1.60, or 1.6%, to settle at $103.79 on Thursday. WTI lost a net of more than 5% over the past two days, despite closing up in the previous session. Prior to Wednesday’s rebound, it fell below key $100 support to a session low of $99.89. Thursday’s higher close in Brent and WTI came as Germany suggested it will halve its Russian oil imports by the summer and end them by the end of the year. Oil traders have disputed for weeks that Berlin and the rest of the EU will be able to disengage with Russia as simply as stated, despite the West’s stand that the action is appropriate and in line with its sanctions against Moscow for the war in Ukraine. “Given how big a market (Germany) is for Russia, accounting for roughly half its exports will come as a real blow” to the supply-demand situation in oil, said Craig Erlam, analyst at online trading platform OANDA. “Oil prices are creeping higher again but remain pretty much in the middle of the range they've traded within for the last month.” Oil’s narrative was also made more bullish by Libya, which said Wednesday that it was losing more than 550,000 barrels per day of oil output due to blockades at major fields and export terminals. The North African country is one of the main contributors to the output of OPEC+, the global oil producing alliance. Made up of 23 countries and officially led by Saudi Arabia, with assistance from Russia, OPEC+ has struggled to meet its output targets for months due to under-investment in global oil fields during the height of the coronavirus outbreak. The situation has worsened since the start of the Feb. 24 Ukraine war and the consequent sanctions on Russia.
WTI, Brent Rally on Concerns Over Libyan, Russian Supplies - - While the front-month ULSD contract ended lower, crude and RBOB futures nearest delivery settled Thursday's session higher. Futures were supported by concerns over less available supply on the global market as the European Union mulls a potential ban on Russian oil imports that would further restrict worldwide oil trade. Market participants also priced in lost supply due to an ongoing disruption in Libya, where violent protests have shut-in more than 500,000 barrels (bbl) in daily output leading to a declaration of force majeure on exports. Global oil markets face an even greater supply disruption after demonstrations in Libya that demand the resignation of Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid shut down El Sharara, the country's biggest oil field. Protesters also forced two of the North African nation's ports to halt loadings with output halted at the El Feel field. The Libyan outages are occurring as Russia's unprovoked war in Ukraine disrupted an already tight market, with the late February invasion prompting some traders to shun Russian crude and countries including the United States and United Kingdom to ban Russian oil imports. The European Union is now considering banning Russian oil. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last week that if more nations banned Russian energy flows, prices may "significantly exceed" historic highs. In a weekend phone call, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave a "positive assessment" of their efforts to stabilize the oil market, suggesting that no change in production policy is likely. The two nations lead the alliance that groups the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, known as OPEC+. As OPEC+ stands firmly against accelerating production increases, the United States and 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency have announced the planned release of millions of barrels of strategic reserves to bridge the gap in lost Russian supply and quell surging price pressures. The Department of Energy this afternoon announced winning bidders for 30 million bbl of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and said it plans to post a Notice of Sale for another 40 million bbl on May 24. Despite the release of reserves, data published Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration show U.S. commercial crude oil inventories declined by a massive 8 million bbl during the week-ended April 15 as refiners hiked run rates and crude exports surged to a more than two-year high at 4.27 million barrels per day (bpd). At settlement, West Texas Intermediate futures for June delivery advanced $1.60 to $103.79 per bbl, and June Brent gained $1.53 to $108.33 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB May futures rose 5.38 cents to $3.3386 per gallon, and the front-month ULSD contact declined 7.23 cents to $3.9008 per gallon.
Oil Slides as China's Covid Puts EU-Russia on Back Burner -- Deja vu of a 2020 China in lockdown is weighing on oil, even as the EU-Russia face-off over Ukraine suggests crude prices have little way to go but up. Oil’s global benchmark Brent and U.S. crude’s West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, benchmark settled down on Friday, logging a third weekly loss in four, on the prospect of weaker global growth, higher interest rates and Covid clampdowns in China’s financial hub Shanghai. London-traded Brent settled down $1.68, or 1.6%, at $106.65 per barrel. For the week, Brent showed a 4.5% loss that came after a near 9% gain last week and the 13% drop in two prior weeks. If the declines keep up, April will be the first month in the negative this year for Brent. New York-traded WTI settled down $1.72, or 1.7%, at $102.07. Like Brent, WTI showed a drop of 4.5% for the week, and similar volatility to the U.K. benchmark in three previous weeks. “The risks are certainly more tilted to the upside, given the war in Ukraine and a potential embargo on Russian exports, but lockdowns in China and the risk of a Fed-driven economic slowdown are also significant,” said Craig Erlam, head of research for Europe at online trading platform OANDA. Bloomberg reported that China’s demand for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel in April is expected to slide 20% from a year earlier, according to people with inside knowledge of the country’s energy industry. That would be equivalent to a drop in crude oil consumption of 1.2 million barrels a day, they said, and will be the largest hit to demand since the lockdown more than two years ago in Wuhan — the central Chinese city where Covid-19 was first identified. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also spooked markets with hawkish talk at the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings this week. Powell said it would be “appropriate” for the central bank to move faster and heavier on interest rates — a strong sign that the Fed’s rate decision committee would approve a half point rise at its upcoming May 4-5 meeting after a previous hike of just a quarter point in March. “Some fear that a 50 basis point rate increase will be the first of many and could slow down the economy and the demand for oil,” Phil Flynn, energy analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, wrote in a commentary. “It is not just a tightening cycle upsetting traders overnight but also the pricing in of a 50-basis point interest rate increase by September by the European Central Bank. The Bank of Japan on the other hand wants to remain dovish but worries that the course of the U.S. and Europe could force them to change course.”
Crudes Fall 4% Week Over Week as China's Lockdowns Stoke Demand Fears - West Texas Intermediate futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Friday's session with losses between 1.5% and 2%. Losses were triggered by a deepening COVID-19 crisis in China, the world's largest oil importer, where government-mandated lockdowns have led to the largest demand shock since the early days of the pandemic, while a strengthening U.S. dollar index in the aftermath of comments from Federal Reserve officials indicating an aggressive pivot towards interest rate hikes further pressured U.S. crude benchmark. China's fuel demand has fallen by more than 20% in March and April, according to private data analyzed by Bloomberg, hit by the COVID-19 shutdowns in major metropolitan areas of Shanghai and Shenzhen. That is equivalent to a drop in oil consumption of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) and marks the largest hit to demand since the lockdown of Wuhan more than two years ago. The decline is estimated to be in the ballpark of 9% of China's daily oil consumption when compared with the 2021 average. Gasoline demand registered the biggest drop, while jet fuel demand is coming off an already low base amid heavy restrictions on outbound flights from China. Demand for diesel from the trucking industry has also plunged. China has struggled to contain its latest COVID-19 outbreak that has led to a series of lockdowns across the country, most notably in the financial hub of Shanghai. The government's pursuit of a COVID-zero strategy has resulted in a web of quarantine rules that has crimped mobility and industrial output, snarling supply chains that has undercut fuel consumption. China's COVID-19 crisis has spread far beyond its borders, with European manufacturers feeling the squeeze from disruptions in Shenzhen factories and Shanghai ports. Overnight data from Eurozone showed business activity in manufacturing stalled near a two-year low in April amid soaring fuel prices and rattled supply chains. Offsetting the decline in manufacturing, Eurozone's growth in the service sector accelerated to a 57.7 eight-month high in April, helped by a loosening of COVID-19 restrictions and still strong demand for services. In financial markets, U.S. dollar index regained upward momentum to finish the week at 101.213, gaining 0.6% against a basket of foreign currencies, while further pressuring front-month WTI futures. Greenback's strength follows comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell who said on Thursday that a 50-basis point hike is "on the table" at the Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting on May 3-4. If realized, that would be the first half-point increase since 2000, adding to investor concerns that economic growth, and with it, demand for oil could slow. On the session, WTI futures for June delivery fell $1.72 to $102.07 per barrel (bbl), and June Brent dropped $1.68 to $106.65 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB May futures declined 3.36 cents to $3.3050 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contact settled 3.78 cents higher at $3.9386 per gallon.
Israeli air strikes hit government positions near Damascus, says Syrian State TV -- Syrian state television reported that Israeli air strikes had hit several locations in the countryside west of the capital Damascus on Thursday. Syrian state news agency SANA, citing a military source, said Syrian air defences had shot down "some" of the missiles fired. It said the strikes only caused physical damage but did not specify further. Israel has mounted frequent attacks against what it has described as Iranian targets in Syria, where Tehran-backed forces including Lebanon's Hezbollah have deployed over the last decade to support President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's war. A pro-government allied commander denied to Reuters that Thursday's strikes had hit their positions outside Damascus. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli government. In March, state media reported that an Israeli attack over the Syrian capital Damascus killed two civilians and left some material damage.
Syrian fighters ready to join next phase of Ukraine war (AP) — During a visit to Syria in 2017, Vladimir Putin lavished praise on a Syrian general whose division played an instrumental role in defeating insurgents in the country’s long-running civil war. The Russian president told him his cooperation with Russian troops “will lead to great successes in the future.” Now members of Brig. Gen. Suheil al-Hassan’s division are among hundreds of Russian-trained Syrian fighters who have reportedly signed up to fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine, including Syrian soldiers, former rebels and experienced fighters who fought for years against the Islamic State group in Syria’s desert. So far, only a small number appears to have arrived in Russia for military training ahead of deployment on the front lines. Although Kremlin officials boasted early in the war of more than 16,000 applications from the Middle East, U.S. officials and activists monitoring Syria say there have not yet been significant numbers of fighters from the region joining the war in Ukraine. Analysts, however, say this could change as Russia prepares for the next phase of the battle with a full-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine. They believe fighters from Syria are more likely to be deployed in coming weeks, especially after Putin named Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, who commanded the Russian military in Syria, as the new war commander in Ukraine. Though some question how effective Syrian fighters would be in Ukraine, they could be brought in if more forces are needed to besiege cities or to make up for rising casualties. Dvornikov is well acquainted with the multiple paramilitary forces in Syria trained by Russia while he oversaw the strategy of ruthlessly besieging and bombarding opposition-held cities in Syria into submission.
UN: At least 35 presumed dead after boat capsizes off Libya coast -At least 35 people are presumed dead after a boat capsized off the Libyan coast, the United Nations migration agency said on Saturday. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) said the boat sank off the western Libyan city of Sabratha, a major launching point for people from Africa who attempt to make the dangerous voyage across the Mediterranean.IOM said the bodies of six people were retrieved from the sea while 29 others were missing and presumed dead. It was not immediately clear what caused the wooden boat to capsize on Friday.“The continued loss of life in the Mediterranean must not be normalised, human lives are the cost of inaction,” the IOM tweeted.“Dedicated search and rescue capacity and a safe disembarkation mechanism are urgently needed to prevent further deaths and suffering.”list 2 of 4
Russians unlikely to leave Libya, despite Ukraine war - Russia’s Wagner Group, a shadowy paramilitary organisation tied to the Kremlin, has played a significant role in Libya, supporting renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) in the country’s civil war. Western observers had begun wondering in recent weeks whether Wagner forces would be withdrawing from Libya to instead focus on supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although Moscow might need to adjust and reconfigure its mission in Libya, there is good reason to expect the Russians to continue their campaign, which has served to shape the security architecture of Libya’s east, where Haftar is based, and entrench itself. “Before February 24 [when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began], there was no indication that the clandestine Russian mission [in Libya] was withdrawing, shrinking, or anything of the sort,” Jalel Harchaoui, a researcher specialising in Libya, told Al Jazeera. “It was rather quiet. The Libyans who live near [Russian] bases got used to seeing some Russians at the grocery store. Some camps, bases, and air bases are known to be fully controlled by Russians,” Harchaoui added. “In those particular cases, even the LNA itself sometimes needs to get permission before entering the base.” While there are some unconfirmed reports that Russian mercenaries have been withdrawn from the country to fight in Ukraine, the majority have remained. “The number of [Russian] fighters who made their way to Ukraine would probably be tiny as the Kremlin wants to have a stake in Libya’s future and needs these foreign mercenaries to maintain their hold on the country,” said Ferhat Polat, a Libya researcher at the TRT World Research Centre. Sustaining a military presence in Libya is key to Russia’s agendas elsewhere on the African continent, especially in the Sahel region.
New ultimatum for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol’s Azovstal plant -- Russia’s defence ministry has set another deadline for Ukrainian soldiers in the strategic southeastern city of Mariupol to surrender, saying the lives of the troops inside a steelworks will be spared if they stop what it called “senseless resistance”.“All who lay down their arms are guaranteed to remain alive,” the ministry said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that troops would be able to withdraw from the steel plant between 2pm and 4pm Moscow time (11:00-13:00 GMT) “without exception, without any weapons and without ammunition”.A similar surrender-or-die demand went unanswered on Sunday, a day after the Russian army claimed to have “completely cleared” the city.Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the Russia-backed separatists in the Donbas region, said on Tuesday assault groups had moved into the Azovstal steel plant in a bid to uproot the Ukrainian troops.Later in the day, the defence ministry said Russian forces had opened a humanitarian corridor so that Ukrainian troops who agreed to lay down their arms could leave the embattled city.“The Russian armed forces opened a humanitarian corridor for the withdrawal of Ukrainian military personnel who voluntarily laid down their arms and militants of nationalist formations,” the ministry said, adding the safe corridor was opened at 2pm (11:00 GMT).There was no immediate comment by Ukrainian authorities.
Exclusive-Russian invasion damaged up to 30% of Ukraine's infrastructure, says minister (Reuters) – Russia’s invasion has damaged or destroyed up to 30% of Ukraine’s infrastructure at a cost of $100 billion, a Ukrainian minister said on Monday, adding reconstruction could be achieved in two years using frozen Russian assets to help finance it. Ukraine has not previously outlined the specific impact on infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, although officials say the total bill for damage to everything from transport to homes and other buildings runs to about $500 billion so far. “Practically all components of our transport infrastructure have suffered in one form or another,” Infrastructure Minister Oleksander Kubrakov told Reuters. He said the invasion – which Russia launched in February, calling it a “special military operation” – had affected “20% to 30% of all infrastructure with varying degrees of damage, with different levels of destruction.” Kubrakov said more than 300 bridges on national roads had been destroyed or damaged, more than 8,000 km (5,000 miles) of roads had to be repaired or rebuilt and dozens of railway bridges had been blown up. He put the bill at $100 billion so far. The minister said his ministry had begun some reconstruction in areas now back under the control of Ukrainian troops. “If we talk about roads, bridges and residential buildings, I believe that almost everything can be rebuilt in two years … if everyone works quickly,” he said. In the first weeks of the war, Russian forces came close to Kyiv, causing widespread damage to towns and infrastructure in the region. Russian troops pulled back from the north around the capital this month to focus the campaign on the east and south, where the besieged port city of Mariupol has been devastated. Kubrakov said he expected Western nations to support Ukraine’s reconstruction, adding that funds could be found from a range of sources to support the rebuilding effort. “There are several sources that are being considered. The first is the assets of the Russian Federation, which are now frozen in almost all major countries,” he said. The European Union has been seeking to create an international fund for reconstruction, while some EU politicians have called for using Russian assets frozen by the West, including $300 billion in Russian central bank reserves. Kubrakov said the Ukrainian justice ministry and some of Ukraine’s allies were working on ways to use frozen Russian assets. He said one option would be to raise cash by selling seized assets through what he called a “transparent mechanism”. “I believe that this is fair, such a mechanism has never been used … It will be the first time,” he said, adding that setting up such a mechanism would require some pioneering work: “There have been no precedents yet. Was there a precedent for one country in Europe to attack another in the 21st century?”
Ukraine: Russians try to storm Mariupol plant, strike Odesa (AP) — Russian forces in Ukraine tried to storm a steel plant housing soldiers and civilians in the southern city of Mariupol on Saturday while attempting to crush the last corner of resistance in a location of high symbolic and strategic value to Moscow, Ukrainian officials said. The reported assault on the eve of Orthodox Easter came after the Kremlin claimed its military had seized all of Mariupol except for the Azovstal plant and as Russia’s military pounded other cities and towns in southern and eastern Ukraine. Officials reported that Russia fired at least six cruise missiles at the Black Sea port city of Odesa, killing five people. The fate of the Ukrainians holed up in the sprawling seaside steel mill wasn’t immediately clear; earlier Saturday, a Ukrainian military unit released a video reportedly taken two days earlier in which women and children holed up underground, some for as long as two months, said they longed to see the sun. As the battle for shattered Mariupol ground on, Russia claimed it had taken control of several villages elsewhere in the eastern Donbas region and destroyed 11 military Ukrainian military targets overnight, including three artillery warehouses. Associated Press journalists also observed shelling in residential areas of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, and in Sloviansk, a town in northern Donbas. The AP witnessed two soldiers arriving at the town’s hospital, one of them fatally wounded. , while a small group of people gathered outside a church where a priest prayed and sprinkled them with water on Holy Saturday. While British officials said the Russians hadn’t gained significant new ground, Ukrainian officials announced a nationwide curfew ahead of Easter Sunday, a sign of the war’s disruption and threat to the entire country. Mariupol, a part of the industrial region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, has been a key Russian objective since the Feb. 24 invasion began and has taken on outsize importance in the war. Completing its capture would give Russia its biggest victory yet, after a nearly two-month siege reduced much of the city to a smoking ruin and killed an estimated 20,000 people there. Occupying Mariupol would deprive the Ukrainians of a vital port, free up Russian troops to fight elsewhere and allow Russia to create a land corridor with the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to Putin on Thursday that the whole of Mariupol, with the exception of Azovstal, had been “liberated” by the Russians. At the time, Putin ordered him not to send Russian troops into the plant but instead to block off the facility, an apparent attempt to starve out the Ukrainians and force them to surrender. Ukrainian officials have estimated that about 2,000 of their troops are inside the plant along with the civilians sheltering in the facility’s underground tunnels. Arestovic said the Ukrainian forces were trying to counter the new attacks. Earlier Saturday, the Azov Regiment of Ukraine’s National Guard, which has members holed up in the plant, released the footage of around two dozen women and children. If authentic, it would be the first video testimony of what life has been like for civilians still trapped in Mariupol’s underground bunkers. The regiment’s deputy commander, Sviatoslav Palamar, told The AP the video was shot Thursday, the same day Russia declared victory over the rest of Mariupol. The contents could not be independently verified. The Azov Regiment has its roots in the Azov Battalion, which was formed in 2014 by far-right activists at the start of the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine and elicited criticism for some of its tactics. The footage of Azovstal showed soldiers giving sweets to children who respond with fist-bumps. One young girl says she and her relatives “haven’t seen neither the sky, nor the sun” since they left home on Feb. 27. More than 100,000 people — down from a prewar population of about 430,000 — are believed trapped in Mariupol with little food, water or heat, according to Ukrainian authorities, who estimate that over 20,000 civilians have been killed in city during the nearly two-month siege. Satellite images released this week showed what appeared to be a second mass grave near Mariupol, and local officials accused Russia of burying thousands of civilians to conceal the slaughter taking place there.
Ukraine uses US facial recognition technology to terrorize families of dead Russian soldiers - Ukraine is employing US-made facial recognition technology to scan the faces of dead Russian soldiers and, after having matched the images to online profiles, sending the photos to the relatives of the deceased. The practice, which is a clear violation of Geneva Conventions and protocols that state that the bodies of dead soldiers must be afforded respect and cannot be subject to ill treatment, was reported on by the Washington Post last Friday. The American newspaper described the macabre and demented campaign, however, as if it were a legitimate military tactic, albeit one that might backfire. According to Ukrainian officials cited in the story, the US firm Clearview AI gave the country the technology. It has since been used to conduct more than 8,600 facial recognition searches. With the photos of dead Russian troops in hand, a database of 20 billion images from social media and the internet is sifted through in order to identify the individuals. About 10 percent of searched images are from VKontakte, Russia's most popular social media site. Ukraine’s IT Army, a volunteer force of hackers working directly for Kiev, has sent photos of corpses to 582 families. The Post article emphasizes their efforts to contact, in particular, mothers of the dead. “A stranger sent a message to a Russian mother saying her son was dead, alongside a photo showing a man’s body in the dirt—face grimacing and mouth agape,” reported the newspaper. “The recipient responded with disbelief, saying it wasn’t him, before the sender passed along another photo showing a gloved hand holding the man’s military documents.” The mother replied, “Why are you doing this? Do you want me to die? I already don’t live. You must be enjoying this.”
US, Kiev lying about people in Azovstal: Moscow -- There is evidence that there were people at Azovstal unrelated to the Ukrainian forces, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Friday. "Of course, there is evidence that there are not only people who belong directly to the armed forces," she said on the air of the Rossiya 24 broadcaster, adding that "the path from Azovstal is open to anyone who wants to go through there." Zakharova also dismissed accusations about Russia not allowing people to leave the Azovstal in Mariupol calling them "lies", describing all related statements as such as well. Regarding the situation around Azovtal, the spokesperson noted that "the Kiev regime [repeatedly] stated that the Russian side did not allow civilians to leave Azovstal. Well, this is a lie. This is not true. The Russian side, through the mouth of the Ministry of Defense, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, has repeatedly talked about how people who want to leave the territory of Azovstal can do so." She also went on to underline how Kiev and Washington "pretend that there is no possibility for the civilian population to leave," accusing them of "intimidating people who are inside Azovstal." "They are doing everything so that people who are at Azovstal continue to be there. For them, this is a continuation of the 'human shield' policy," she explained. The Russian Armed Forces had renewed their offer for nationalist Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries remaining at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol to halt their hostilities and lay down their arms on Wednesday. Russian National Defense Center chief Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev cited Moscow's forces' humane principles as the reason behind the offer, underlining to the militants that they would be "guaranteed life" if they take the Russian offer and comply with Russia's conditions.All of Mariupol's urban area has been cleared of Ukrainian troops, with more than 4,000 soldiers eliminated over the past day alone, the Russian Defense Ministry said Saturday. The city has been a playground for Ukrainian provocations since the war broke out in the country on February 24. The Russian Defense Ministry had revealed that Ukrainian nationalists in Mariupol used about 150 civilians as human shields and opened fire against DPR fighters from behind the civilians' backs.
Russia’s Campaign in Ukraine and the West’s Response: The End of the Beginning? - by Yves Smith -While it’s impossible to predict how the war in Ukraine, which is now undeniably a proxy war between the US/NATO and Russia, will wind up, some boundary conditions for both the military and economic battle are emerging. And their implications do not look too good for the West. Let’s make a couple of overarching observations: Russia has to and will win the immediate military contest. Russia cannot tolerate an armed and hostile bordering country any more than the US would accept China sending troops and weapons to Canada. Russia wants a neutral Ukraine. If the only way the West will accept that is by prostrating Ukraine, so be it. Note that Russia launched its invasion with clearly stated objectives of demilitarizaton and denazification which most assuredly did not amount to conquering or occupying Ukraine. Putin also said something to the effect of “We won’t stay where we aren’t wanted” which did signal a willingness to entertain Crimea-type referenda, using the precedent the US set in Kosovo. The US and many European countries have taken such extreme positions about the Russian invasion that it’s hard to see how they back down if [when] Russia wins. Had they not turned the dial up to 11, they would have had an easy out in depicting the Russian “failure” to take the western part of Ukraine, which Russia seems highly unlikely to attempt, as a Russian loss and a way for the US and Europe to save face. But by having bought their own propaganda about the fundamental evil of Putin and all things Russian, including cats and Russia losing the war, the US and NATO will have no where to go when the Ukraine military collapses, which is inevitable. The Western press, by virtue of laziness and/or capture, keeps projecting a US style approach onto Russia, when by now they should know better. Russia is prosecuting a methodical grinding up of Ukraine’s military capacity and by quite a lot of measures is doing very well. Looking at territorial acquisition was and is the wrong way to assess progress. Mind you, the West will try to look like is is Doing Something, like saber-rattling, admitting Finland and Sweden to NATO, and making promised to arm Europe. The latter project will take years and is unlike to amount to much in the light of Europe’s own deteriorating economic situation. The US had already made clear it was not going to give up on its economic sanctions of Russia, even when its “Russia is losing” story seemed more plausible than it does now. The US justification for again looting Russia (the hoped-for outcome) even if it were defeated in Ukraine, was that it would be necessary to force the overthrow of Putin and/or the breakup of Russia (a pet idea of Zbigniew Brzezinski). So if Russia achieves its objectives in the next month or two (mind you, cleaning up operations can have a long tail) and the Western press can’t finesse that the Ukraine military is kaput, the PR fallback might be that the Western sanctions are eating at the foundations of the Russian economy and it won’t be too long before it collapses. The wee problem with relying on the economic barrage to succeed where a military one failed is that the sanctions and sanctions blowback/countersanctions are shaping up to be trench warfare. As Michael Hudson and others have explained, Europe and the US are more fragile than they appear. Unequal societies dependent on the labor of lowly workers who are already economically stressed are vulnerable to political upheaval when they are hit with additional fuel and food price shocks. Russia will suffer too, but it is in a completely different position than the West. First, it was on its way to being an autarky. Second, it was warned that sanctions were coming, both directly and by how the US has gone after Iran. Its handling of the financial sanctions shows Russia had made some preparations on the banking front; we’ll see in the coming months if it made adequate provisions on the real economy front. Third, many reports from Russia confirm that Russians on a widespread regard the continued advance of NATO into Ukraine as an existential threat and will accept necessary sacrifices. Fourth, Russia came through the crucible of its 1990s collapse and was still able to regroup and recover. It seems very unlikely that Russian lifespans and living standards will fall as far as they did then. And this time, Europe will be taking body blows, so even though Russia’s absolute economic conditions will fall, its relative position might not.
Naive Questions About Russia’s War Economy - Last week the Duma began reviewing two new laws to decide whether the war economy will run on state planned lines, starting with the nationalization of the assets in Russia of all companies belonging to the hostile axis; or keep running on the oligarch model with a temporary arrangement between the oligarchs and foreign investors until the hostilities are over. According to Putin on April 12, “we are also aware that the most correct decision in the emerging situation is to debureaucratise the economy and enable the growth of new production outlets based on newly created logistical chains. In this connection, I can say that I have much hope for the rise of small and medium-sized businesses, the initiative from below, and the emergence of new leaders in Russia.” Putin didn’t mention the alternative submitted to the Duma a week earlier on April 4, by the Crimean parliament, backed by the Communist Party and other deputies. By this omission, Putin was implying he is opposed to it; and that instead, he will support the alternative law announced on April 12 by the Kremlin party, United Russia. This second scheme is to be run — the text of the new law dictates — by Igor Shuvalov, chairman of the state Vnesheconombank (VEB).Between the two bills, the two schemes, this is now the Russian choice between state socialism and oligarch capitalism. For the time being the mainstream Russian media have yet to realize what’s at stake; no one in the west has noticed. “Tough justice for runaway Western business,” runs the headline in the state-financed Vzglyad [5], except that the internet publication reports only the United Russia version of the bill without mentioning the Crimean version. Vzglyad’s editors have also omitted to tell their readers that the Crimean bill proposes to transfer the new power over nationalization to Russian voters through the elected parliaments around the country. By contrast, the United Russia bill vests the power to nationalize in the same state bureaucracy which Putin has been directing through men like Shuvalov since 2000. Quoting Moscow lawyers and business lobbyists, Vzglyad portrays the measures in the United Russia bill as a nationalist reaction against the sanctions imposed by the US and NATO on their companies to cease trading with Russia and pull out of their domestic plants and investments.Vzglyad editorializes the proposed bill is too state-controlled: instead, it favours allowing the foreign companies to continue running their Russian businesses through cutouts or arms-length trust managers they accept; or holding auctions of shares in the foreign assets on the Moscow stock exchange in which the foreigners will have the option to buy their shares back. “In 98% of cases there will be a situation when the state will take everything,” Vzglyad reports its source saying. “Instead, it would be logical to create public joint-stock companies and conduct an IPO of shares on the Moscow Stock Exchange. Then a fair price will be set, and there will be more chances to find buyers. Minority shareholders will be able to buy shares.” Court bankruptcy procedures could be abused, Vzglyad warns. “We are talking about deliberately bringing a company to insolvency in order to take over its assets in a rigged bankruptcy procedure. The consequences of the adoption of such a law will be deplorable. Because the [state officials] will not be able to manage many of these companies effectively. Most likely, the companies will simply be taken apart. And, of course, that will not protect anyone. Competitive companies win in modern markets. And their competitiveness is determined not only and not so much by assets as by management.”
Russia touts SWIFT alternative, but will keep its members secret -A day after Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina touted the country’s alternative to the SWIFT financial-messaging service, the regulator said it will no longer publicly disclose who participates.U.S. and European sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have cut several major banks off from SWIFT. But Nabiullina told parliament Monday that 52 institutions from 12 countries are participating. Until recently, the list was posted on thecentral bank’s website. “Under the current circumstances we decided not to disclose on the website the list of companies connected to the system,” the press service said. “The users of the system can still see the list.”
Putin says Western countries have hurt their own economies with sanctions (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Western countries had scored an own goal by imposing sanctions against Russia over Ukraine which he said had led to a “deterioration of the economy in the West”. Speaking on the state of Russia’s domestic economy, Putin said that inflation was stabilising and that retail demand in the country had normalised. Western countries have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia’s corporate and financial system since it sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it calls a “special military operation”.
WH: US to respond if China establishes permanent base on Solomon Isles The White House said on Friday that the United States will respond if China establishes a permanent military presence on the Solomon Islands.The statement said that if China takes steps to establish a de facto permanent military presence, "power-projection capabilities, or a military installation, the delegation noted that the United States would then have significant concerns and respond accordingly."The White House also announced today that the US and Solomon Islands agreed to launch a high-level strategic dialogue that will be co-chaired on the US side by the White House and the US Department of State.In a press release, the White House said that the US and Solomon Islands have both agreed to focus on security issues of mutual concern for both sides, as well as economic and social development, public health, in addition to finance and debt.China announced on Tuesday that it signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands amid tensions in the region, especially over Taiwan, as the US tries to establish a foothold there.Australia is worried that the pact, whose details have not been made public, could be a step toward a Chinese military presence less than 2,000 km away.Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe told his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, during a phone call on Wednesday, that the US government should stop underestimating China's resolve and ability to protect its national interests."China hopes to establish a healthy and stable relationship with the United States, and [China] will protect its national interests and dignity. The US should not underestimate China's resolve and capabilities," the ministry announced.
China Implements Lockdowns Near Main Foxconn iPhone Manufacturing Plant - manufacturing facilities, which could ultimately impact Apple's supply chain, reports Bloomberg. Some areas in the Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone have been placed under quarantine effective immediately, and people in the area must stay in their homes and are not permitted to leave. The Airport Economy Zone is where Foxconn's largest iPhone assembly plant is located, and the lockdown comes after employees have been undergoing mandatory Covid testing.China has been implementing lockdowns in an attempt to curb the spread of the coronavirus, and these efforts could have an impact on Apple device manufacturing. At this time, there appear to be no iPhone or iPad delays, but Apple has been battling MacBook Pro shortages. Apple suppliers Pegatron and Quanta have also recently halted production in eastern China due to Covid restrictions. Back in March, Foxconn was forced to suspend production for several days in Shenzhen following a city-wide lockdown that prevented residents from leaving their homes. The shutdown lasted just a couple of days before Foxconn was able to resume production, with employees living and working at the factory in bubble arrangements.
Shanghai cops clash with citizens over leaving homes to COVID patients -Furious Shanghai residents clashed with hazmat-suited police Thursday after they were ordered to give up their homes so COVID-19 patients in China’s most populous city can isolate amid draconian lockdowns.Officers were filmed wrestling residents to the ground and then leading some away to a van — as others said they were fearful that making their home a quarantine center amid an influx of cases would expose them to the illness, according to Agence France-Presse and footage of the incident.“It’s not that I don’t want to cooperate with the country, but how would you feel if you live in a building where the blocks are only 10 meters (30 feet) apart, everyone has tested negative, and these people are allowed in?” a woman who filmed Thursday’s ordeal could be heard saying in the video.Residents also accused cops in the video of “hitting people” — and a sobbing woman could be heard asking, “Why are they taking an old person away?” The rare show of dissent in the Communist country comes amid growing frustration after millions in Shanghaiwere plunged into a strict lockdown last month when cases started to spike in the face of China’s zero-COVID policy.
Cash-Strapped Pakistan Cuts Power to Households on Fuel Shortage - Pakistan is cutting electricity to households and industry as the cash-strapped country can no longer afford to buy coal or natural gas from overseas to fuel its power plants.The South Asian nation is struggling to procure fuel from the spot market after prices of liquefied natural gas and coal surged to records last month as the war in Ukraine exacerbated supply shortfalls. Pakistan’s energy costs more than doubled to $15 billion in nine months ended February from a year earlier, and it isn’t able to spend more on additional shipments.
Sri Lanka Economic Crisis Inflicted by Self-Serving Elite -- Sri Lanka has just defaulted on its foreign debt for the very first time. Attributing its current predicament to a Chinese ‘debt-trap’ is a new Cold War propaganda distraction – which we will undoubtedly hear much more of.In this fable, Sri Lanka is a country caught in a debt trap due to white elephant projects mooted and financed by borrowings from China. Blaming Sri Lanka’s debt crisis on Chinese loans is not only factually wrong, but also prevents understanding the origins and nature of its current crisis.Outstanding Sri Lanka government foreign debt in April 2021 was US$35.1bn. Policy errors have reduced foreign direct investment (FDI), exports and government revenue, changing the composition of its foreign debt for the worst.Debt to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank, China, Japan and other bilateral lenders, including India, came to about a tenth each. Borrowing from capital markets – 47%, or almost half – is mainly responsible for its debt unsustainability.After all, borrowing from multilateral development banks – mainly the World Bank and ADB – and bilateral lenders are mostly on concessional terms, while debt from commercial sources incurs higher interest rates.Commercial loans tend to be more short term, and subject to stricter conditions. As sovereign bonds or commercial loans become due, their full value must be repaid. External debt servicing costs surge accordingly.As of April 2021, about 60% of Sri Lanka’s debt was for durations of less than ten years. The US dollar denominated debt share rose sharply – from 36% in 2012 to 65% in 2019, as Chinese renminbi denominated loans remained around 2%.Adding government guaranteed debt to state-owned enterprises, total borrowings from China were 17.2% of Sri Lanka’s total public foreign debt liabilities in 2019. Meanwhile, commercial borrowings grew rapidly from merely 2.5% of foreign debt in 2004 to 56.8% in 2019.The effective interest rate on commercial loans in January 2022 was 6.6% – more than double that for Chinese debt. Unsurprisingly, Sri Lanka’s interest payments alone came to 95.4% of its declining government revenue in 2021!In February 2022, Sri Lanka had only US$2.31 billion in foreign exchange reserves – too little to cover its import bill and debt repayment obligations of US$4 billion.Its 22 million people face 12-hour power cuts, and extreme scarcities of food, fuel and other essential items such as medicines. Inflation reached an all-time high of 17.5% in February 2022, with food prices rising 24% in January-February 2022. But economic crisis is not new to Sri Lanka.As a commodity producer – mainly exporting tea, coffee, rubber and spices – export earnings have long been volatile, vulnerable to external shocks. Foreign exchange earnings have also come from ready-made garments, tourism and remittances, but their shares have grown little over decades.Since 1965, Sri Lanka has obtained 16 IMF loans, typically with onerous conditionalities. The last was in 2016, providing US$1.5 billion over 2016-19. Required austerity measures have squeezed public investment, hurting growth and welfare.Two recent shocks made things worse. First, bomb blasts in Colombo churches and luxury hotels in April 2019 drastically cut tourist arrivals by 80%, squeezing foreign exchange earnings.Second, the pandemic has damaged not only economic activity, but also foreign exchange reserves, as it often paid monopoly prices to get COVID-19 tests, treatments, equipment, vaccines and other needs.
IMF World Economic Outlook Forecasts --Econbrowser by Menzie Chinn - The entire IMF April WEO is out, with analytical chapters on private debt/global recovery, greener labor markets, and global trade and value chains. The forecasts are revised downward, at global and at national levels, for certain countries: (see table)Since the January forecast, 2022 global growth has been revised town by 0.8 ppts (y/y), and revised down by 1.3 ppts since the October 2021 forecast. Pretty much, one could chalk the bulk of the downward revision to ongoing Russian military action in the Ukraine. So… “Thanks, Putin!”Russia can thank Putin too; the downward revision in 2022 Russian GDP growth going from the January to April forecast is 11.3 ppts (to -8.5%). (Not shown in table, but can be seen by going to the WEO document itself).The downward revision in Chinese GDP going from January to April is 0.4 ppts.Q4/Q4 growth rates are more informative for figuring out the current pace of growth (at least to me), so here’s the relevant table. Interestingly, advanced economy and EMDE Q4/Q4 growth in 2022 are slated to be the same — 2.5%. Of course, since EMDE growth trends are higher than that for advanced economies, this is a considerable slowdown for the EMDEs.Chinese Q4/Q4 growth is slated to be 4.8%. In levels, this looks like the following picture.Figure 1: Chinese real GDP index, s.a., 2019Q1=1 (blue), 5.5% y/y 2022 target interpolated (light blue), IMF January WEO (pink square), and IMF April WEO (red square). Index based on cumulated growth rates as reported by NBS. Source: NBS, IMF WEO (various issues), and author’s calculations.When reports indicate that it will be difficult to hit the 5.5% target given Q1 growth, that is reflected in the position of the red square relative to light blue line.As for Russia, this is the IMF forecast of -14.1% Q4/Q4 growth in context.Figure 1: Russian GDP in billions Ch.2000Rubles (red), IMF April 2022 forecast (light blue triangle), S&P Global forecast of 3/22 (red square), all on a log scale. Level for 2021Q4 calculated using growth rates from WEO. Source: OECD via FRED, IMF WEO, S&P Global, and author’s calculations. The 14.1% Q4/Q4 decline forecasted by the IMF is smaller than the S&P forecast from a month ago. Still, it’s a pretty large decline.
The IMF weighs in on LMAO’s nickel debacle -- The International Monetary Fund published its Global Financial Stability Report today. The latest one will make for uncomfortable reading at 10 Finsbury Square. Aside from exploring big topics like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, wobbly emerging markets and cryptocurrencies, the GSFR devoted some virtual ink to the recent nickel pickle at the London Metal Exchange.The most eye-catching aside is the IMF seemingly agreeing with people like AQR Capital Management’s Clifford Asness that the LME’s decision to cancel several billion dollars worth of trades was the result of pressure from members, their banks and perhaps the LME’s parent, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX). The @LME_news is now a criminal enterprise hiding behind manifest incompetence. Don’t be fooled by the horrendous stupidity below. That’s a mask. Think of all their epic incompetence as the robe Vito Genoese wore while wandering the streets incoherently.pic.twitter.com/uRR6WHeVdQ The IMF obviously isn’t as testy as infamous screen-puncher Asness, but in its own idiosyncratic way, the GFSR doesn’t mince its words. Here is an excerpt, with FTAV’s emphasis:While margin calls appear to have been generally orderly and not disruptive to market functioning so far, recent measures taken in markets and exchanges in response to elevated volatility in commodity prices highlight the need to examine the broader implications of such efforts. For example, commodity markets function differently than securities markets, and trading disruptions could exert significant adverse impacts on the real sector.Exchanges and central counterparty clearing houses should also ensure the robustness and resilience of their information technology systems to withstand current trading conditions. Governance mechanisms for the LME need to be strengthened to address conflict of interest.Measures must be in place to ensure that the concentration of trading does not adversely impact free and fair markets. Supervisors and regulators should consider enhancing transparency, in both exchange-traded and over-the-counter markets, to pre-empt the build-up of concentrated positions and thereby limit financial stability implications.For people that somehow missed the whole sorry saga, the GFSR also has a good box laying out what happened in technocratic but legible English. Here’s the FT’s own explanation.One reason the IMF is concerned by the debacle is that it fears that if people think one of the world’s biggest commodity trading venues cannot be trusted then trading could migrate off transparent exchanges and on to murkier venues. Some more highlights from the GFSR:
Undergraduate slumps, dies acting Jesus crucifixion drama --April 17, 2022 A student at the Clariantian University of Nigeria, CUN, located at Nekede in Owerri West Local Government Area of Imo State, whose name was given as Suel Ambrose, slumped and later gave up the ghost while participating in a biblical demonstration of how Jesus Christ was crucified. It was gathered that the incident, which happened on Friday (Good Friday), threw the university community into confusion. A source at the university, who preferred to be called Micheal Eluwa, said the deceased fell down and, after some time, he started bleeding while acting in the passion of Christ drama. “At the time the incident occurred everybody came together and rushed the deceased to a school hospital and later, when the case became worse, he was taken to a nearly Federal Medical Center, FMC. It was from there we heard he could not survive it ‘’, he said. “Initially when it happened we thought it was a joke, and that it was part of the drama, it was when he could not get up that was when we knew it was a serious matter and he was rushed to hospital.” The school management, through the priest in charge of Students Affairs, Chukwuemeka Iheme, said the school would address the matter later.
COVID-19 infection spread in Australian schools exacerbates staffing crisis - Large numbers of Australian schools are facing an unprecedented staffing crisis as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to sweep through classrooms. The decades-long crisis in public education is now reaching a breaking point. In January, state and federal governments insisted that schools be reopened for face-to-face teaching and that there would be no return to remote learning, regardless of the infection rate. The “let it rip” policies adopted by both Labor and Liberal-National Coalition governments across the country reflected the demands of big business and finance capital for an end to all restrictions that impinged on their profits, with schools required to be open so that parents could be forced back to their workplaces. Even minimal mitigation measures in most states were removed, including the lifting of many mask mandates and the downgrading of close contact rules. By late February, COVID cases had once again begun to surge under the influence of the BA.2 variant. Schools were acting as vectors for the rapid spread of the virus—case numbers soared among children and teenagers, and thousands of teachers have been infected. New South Wales (NSW) is the worst affected state, both in terms of infection rates and the ensuing staffing crisis. More than 117,000 NSW children aged between 10 and 19 have reported a positive test in just the last month. In addition, over 74, 000 children under 10 were infected. In the final week of the school term earlier this month, 20 percent of school-aged children were absent from their classroom due to a COVID-19 infection or exposure. More than 20 schools across the state had directed students to learn from home due to teachers either being sick or self-isolating and because replacement staff could not be found. The Independent Education Union (IEU), which covers staff in non-government schools, reported: “The teacher shortage in schools throughout NSW and the ACT has intensified to breaking point, with one Sydney Catholic secondary school, Brigidine College, having closed for the entire week because so many staff and students are off sick with COVID or isolating because of it.”
“Under both candidates our futures look very bad”: French high schools protest against elections between Macron and Le Pen - Multiple high schools were blockaded across Paris Tuesday morning to oppose both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, who are standing in the French presidential runoff on April 24. These blockades follow demonstrations throughout France over the weekend and the occupation of many French universities last week in opposition to the two extreme-right candidates.In central Paris, the Louis Le Grand, Lamartine, Henri IV, Fénelon, Balzac, and Lavoisier high schools were all blockaded by students. A number of other schools throughout the capital closed in order to avoid confrontations with student protesters. Jaurès high school in the Paris suburb of Montreuil was also blocked by students.Multiple universities remain closed in Paris amid further fears from the French government that last week’s occupation movement could rapidly spread. The Nanterre and Sorbonne universities have remained closed from the end of last week. University of Paris-8 in the working class suburb of Saint-Denis, where students had planned a general assembly for Tuesday, was closed by the administration on Tuesday morning. The University of Paris-1 moved courses online, a decision it claimed was “to ensure individuals’ safety.”The largest high-school blockade was at Louis Le Grand, where hundreds of students gathered to block the school entrance. The high school is across from the Sorbonne university in Paris’ Latin Quarter. When police arrived at Louis Le Grand in the afternoon, students from other schools nearby joined that blockade to protect them. Students blockading the school chanted, “screw the National Front [referring to the former name of neo-fascist candidate Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party].” Nina, a high-school student from another Paris area high school who had come to help defend the blockade of the Louis Le Grand high school from the cops, said, “We came to block the schools because we wanted to support students who were protesting last week. Many of us are 15 and 16, so we can’t vote or even make a blank vote. However, this election threatens us so this is the only way we can make our voice heard. Many of our teachers and school administrators even support us and encourage us to fight for our rights and against fascism, but it is difficult for them to state this openly.”She explained why students from schools around Paris came to join the blockade at Louis Le Grand: “We came down here to defend the students at Louis Le Grand. My school was closed because we blockaded it this morning, but then the police turned up here and we organized with other students in the area to come here to help them.”
U.K. crypto regulators turn to fintech playbook for inspiration - Britain’s prior approach to regulating financial technology has been held up as the de facto bar, industry executives told Bloomberg — but on crypto, its more risk-averse outlook has stymied the sector’s growth. The Financial Conduct Authority and the Bank of England have issued multiple consumer warnings about investing in crypto since token prices picked up in 2020, while efforts to assess the underlying blockchain technology’s suitability for updating traditional market infrastructures only began in earnest last year. Only 34 crypto firms surpassed the FCA’s bar for registration under anti-money-laundering rules, with more than 100 companies left in limbo.“There was the perception that the U.K. wasn’t welcoming because the registration process was so challenging,” said Huong Hauduc, general counsel at the Maltese-regulated crypto exchange Bequant, which holds a limited presence in London. However, she said the Treasury’s pledge to ask the Law Commission to evaluate the legal status of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) was a step in the right direction.
U.K. seizes funds linked to $150 million fraud from London fintech - The U.K. seized 2 million pounds ($2.61 million) from a London-based fintech firm, saying that the funds were linked to a $150 million U.S. wire fraud conspiracy. QPay Europe Ltd., which offers due diligence and underwriting services, agreed to forfeit the money following court proceedings, the Financial Conduct Authority said in a statement Thursday. The funds were routed repeatedly through different accounts in several countries without appearing to have any legitimate purpose, the FCA said. The money was linked to a $150 million payment processing scheme under investigation by U.S. authorities who said banks and credit card firms were deceived into processing payments from high-risk businesses such as online gambling, debt collection and prescription drugs. The FCA doesn’t allege that QPay itself was involved in the conspiracy, the watchdog said.
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