The Fed isn't navigating 'just any rate hike cycle' and reducing its balance sheet will have a massive impact, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says --The Federal Reserve is attempting to reduce its balance sheet while concurrently hiking interest rates, and it's going to cause major disruptions in the market, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. "A definitive plan has not been announced yet, and even when such a plan is in place, changes could be made in the size, pace and the balance between passive (maturities) and active (sales) runoffs," El-Erian wrote in a Bloomberg opinion column Friday. "And the fallout of such a plan is complicated by the fact that the Fed will be raising interest rates simultaneously." Wall Street analysts have been raising their predictions for policy tightening to include multiple 50-basis-point rate hikes, El-Erian pointed out, and the Fed is already lagging behind the curve on inflation. "This is not just any rate-hiking cycle," warned the president of Queens' College at Cambridge and chief economic adviser at Allianz. The economy has grown too accustomed to easy-money conditions, and if the Fed makes a policy error, the US could sink into a recession , he added, echoing previous warnings. Investors holding the securities that the Fed intends to shed will adapt their behavior, which could have a pronounced impact on market pricing, El-Erian said. Additionally, it remains unclear, he pointed out, how yield volatility will impact markets. "The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is likely to be consequential, the broad contours of where the effects will be felt are clear, but the specific magnitude and timing are impossible to pin down now with a high degree of certainty," El-Erian wrote.
Mortgage Rates Breach 5%, Two-Year & 10-Year Treasury Yields Spike after Fed Dove Brainard Explains How Inflation is Much Worse for Lower Income Households than CPI Shows - By Wolf Richter - Fed Governor Lael Brainard, one of the biggest doves on the Fed’s monetary policy committee, explained this morning in detail that inflation is hitting lower-income households much worse than higher-income households, and that it is hitting disadvantaged households, such as those with limited access to online shopping, even harder, and their inflation rates are far higher than the national average inflation rates because the basket of goods they’re buying is systematically different, and that they’re spending nearly all their money on necessities, and that they often cannot substitute items whose prices have jumped with lower-cost items, because they’re already buying the lowest-cost items to begin with, and there is no way to go lower on the ladder. They can only buy less, such as buying less of the cheapest store-brand cereal, which is the example she used. It was an indictment of Consumer Price Inflation, depicting it as the scourge that it is for the people at the lower half of the income scale. And then she said that the Fed would have to, and will, crack down on inflation to get this under control. Upon the speech, whose text was released in advance earlier this morning, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked by 18 basis points to 5.02% today, the highest since November 2018. But back in November 2018, this measure of mortgage rates by Mortgage News Daily, had peaked at 5.05% briefly, before the Fed buckled under Trump’s withering attacks. But back then, inflation was below the Fed’s target, and now inflation is spiking and out of control, and it’s the White House that is now under withering fire from voters over the spike of consumer prices. There isn’t anything in recent years that compares to this. The comparison has to be to the 1970s.And instead of fretting about the spiking mortgage rates, Brainard agreed that the market was beginning to price in the coming “expeditious increase in the policy rate” and “a more rapid reduction in the balance sheet” compared to last time:“Consistent with these expectations, we have already seen significant tightening in market financing conditions at longer maturities, which tend to be most relevant for household and business decision-making. For instance, 30-year mortgage rates have increased more than 100 basis points in just a few months and are now at levels last seen in late 2018,” she said.Brainard’s comments today added a new political reality to the Fed’s policies: Inflation is a horror show at the lower end of the income spectrum, with much higher inflation rates among these households than the national average inflation rates that are more reflective of inflation rates experienced by higher-income groups.The two-year Treasury yield spiked by 9 basis points to 2.53% by noon, the highest since March 2019, having exploded in six months from 0.2% last October, which is a huge move. Another 30 basis points will take the two-year yield to 2.83%, which would be the highest since 2007. And the Fed hasn’t even seriously begun to raise rates. It is just telling the markets to get ready for it: The 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 16 basis points to 2.56% by mid-day, the highest since April 2019:The yield curve re-un-inverted between the two-year yield (2.53%) and the 10-year yield (2.56%), after the 10-year yield outspiked the two-year yield.But the yield curve retains its kangaroo-shape: very steep from the one-month yield (0.17%) to the three-year yield (2.73%) and then essentially flat, with a small dip at the 10-year yield, a rise at the 20-year yield, and a dip at the 20-year yield:The longer maturities – the five-year yield to the 30-year yield – will feel the Quantitative Tightening when the Fed will shrink its balance sheet by several trillion dollars. And this will levitate the yield curve at that end, even as the short-term yields are coming up with the Fed’s rate hikes. The green line is the yield curve at its historic lows in August 2020:
Here's a look at inflation-fighting pros, cons of Fed raising rates - The view that higher interest rates help stamp out inflation is essentially an article of faith, based on long-held economic gospel of supply and demand. But how does it really work? And will it work this time around, when bloated prices seem at least partially beyond the reach of conventional monetary policy? It is this dilemma that has Wall Street confused and markets volatile. In normal times, the Federal Reserve is seen as the cavalry coming into quell soaring prices. But this time, the central bank is going to need some help. "Can the Fed bring down inflation on their own? I think the answer is 'no,'" "They certainly can help rein in the demand side by higher interest rates. But it's not going to unload container ships, it's not going to reopen production capacity in China, it's not going to hire the long-haul truckers we need to get things across the country." Still, policymakers are going to try to slow down the economy and subdue inflation. The approach is two-pronged: The central bank will raise benchmark short-term interest rates while also reducing the more than $8 trillion in bonds it has accumulated over the years to help keep money flowing through the economy. Under the Fed blueprint, the transmission from those actions into lower inflation goes something like this: The higher rates make money costlier and borrowing less appealing. That, in turn, slows demand to catch up with supply, which has lagged badly throughout the pandemic. Less demand means merchants will be under pressure to cut prices to lure people to buy their products. Potential effects include lower wages, a halt or even a drop in soaring home prices and, yes, a decline in valuations for a stock market that has thus far held up fairly well in the face of soaring inflation and the fallout from the war in Ukraine. There's also a psychological factor in the equation: Inflation is thought to be something of a self-fulfilling prophecy. When the public thinks the cost of living will be higher, they adjust their behavior accordingly. Businesses boost the prices they charge and workers demand better wages. That rinse-and-repeat cycle can potentially drive inflation even higher. That's why Fed officials not only have approved their first rate hike in more than three years, but they also have talked tough on inflation, in an effort to dampen future expectations. In that vein, Fed Governor Lael Brainard — long a proponent of lower rates — delivered a speech Tuesday that stunned markets when she said policy needs to get a lot tighter. It's a combination of these approaches — tangible moves on policy rates, plus "forward guidance" on where things are headed — that the Fed hopes will bring down inflation. "They do need to slow growth," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "If they take a little bit of the steam out of the equity market and credit spreads widen and underwriting standards get a little tighter and housing-price growth slows, all those things will contribute to a slowing in the growth in demand. That's a key part of what they're trying to do here, trying to get financial conditions to tighten up a bit so that demand growth slows and the economy will moderate." Financial conditions by historical standards are currently considered loose, though getting tighter.
Can rates get high on short supply without a crash? - Here’s some happy reading for the world’s central bankers this evening. It comes courtesy of the Bank for International Settlements’ general manager AgustÃn Carstens, who says the fixes they’ve relied upon for the past few decades belong in the trash: (emphasis ours here and elsewhere)Central banks may also need to reassess how they respond to inflation resulting from supply side developments. These will typically spark relative price changes at first. The textbook prescription is to “look through” this type of inflation, because offsetting their impact on inflation would be costly. But that assumes inflation overshoots are temporary and not too large. Recent experience suggests it can be hard to make such clear-cut distinctions. What starts as temporary can become entrenched, as behaviour adapts if what starts that way goes far enough and lasts long enough. It’s hard to establish where that threshold lies, and we may find out only after it has been crossed.Monetary policy frameworks have, in recent decades, been based on the idea that central banks can provide stable growth by controlling the level of aggregate demand in the economy. This is done by easing or tightening monetary policy. If the economy is overheating, and inflation is too high, rates can rise – hitting demand in the process. And vice versa if demand needs a little bit of a boost in order for the economy to reach its potential.The framework implies that inflation is ultimately a demand-driven phenomenon. Any surge in prices resulting from supply shocks will be short-lived, as investment and government policy adjust to fill the gap.That view has merit. It helps explain why the European Central Bank was wrong to respond to the rise in oil prices in 2011 by hiking rates only to be confronted with a sovereign debt crisis and recession a year down the line. But what happens when you have a situation like the present where supply bottlenecks linger and price pressures begin to broaden? One consequence is that workers (in some parts of the world at least) begin to call for more money:While we remain unconvinced that we’re about to see wages spiral out of control, it’s looking less likely that what we’re seeing happen to price growth is a blip.So where do we go from here? Well, there are no easy answers. Combining rate rises with a cost of living crisis is hardly a recipe for societal bliss. In the longer term, however, persistently high inflation would be even worse. The BIS’s head somewhat glosses over the challenges this creates:The good news is that central banks are awake to the risks. No one wants to repeat the 1970s. It seems clear that policy rates need to rise to levels that are more appropriate for the higher inflation environment. Most likely, this will require real interest rates to rise above neutral levels for a time in order to moderate demand.Of course no-one wants a repeat of the stagflation for which that decade is renowned. Yet the idea that this generation of central bankers can draw on the Volcker playbook like it’s no biggie is barking.
Banking chair pushing to confirm all four Fed nominees this week --Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown said he and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are pushing to confirm all four Federal Reserve nominees this week, but doing so will require Republican cooperation. The Ohio Democrat said that without agreement from Republicans it would take 30 hours of debate to get to Jerome Powell’s nomination to a second term as Fed chair — too long to finish all the nominations this week. “It’s up to McConnell to agree to shrink the number of hours,” Brown said, referring to Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell. “Powell will be last. I want to do them all.”
Goldman Sachs warns the dollar is at risk of losing its dominance, and could end up a lesser player like the UK pound --Goldman Sachs has warned the US dollar faces risks that could erode its global dominance, saying it's dealing with some of the same challenges that the British pound faced in the early 1900s.The move by the US and its allies to freeze Russia's central bank out of much of its foreign currency reserves has raised concerns that countries could start moving away from using the dollar, due to worries about the power the currency grants the US.Goldman's research note, released Thursday, is a sign major investors are taking the risks to the dollar seriously.The bank's analysts, including economist Cristina Tessari, said the dollar faces a number of challenges similar to those faced by the British pound before it declined. The pound was once the world's reserve currency, but was supplanted by the dollar in the middle of the 20th century.Those challenges include the fact that the US has a relatively small share of global trade compared to the dominance of the dollar in global payments. That the country has a deteriorating "net foreign asset position", with rising foreign debts. And that it faces geopolitical problems, such as Russia's war in Ukraine.Tessari and her colleague Zac Pandl said the US's big debts, stemming from the fact that it is a big importer of goods, could be a particular problem.International investors became more and more reluctant to hold the British pound after the country racked up major debts in World War II, the Goldman analysts said."If a reserve currency issuers' debt is allowed to grow relative to GDP, eventually foreigners may grow reluctant to hold more of it," they wrote.
When Safe Assets Are No Longer Safe -The U.S. has long benefitted from its ability to issue “safe assets” to the rest of the world. These usually take the form of U.S. Treasury bonds, although there was a period before the 2008-09 global financial crisis when mortgage-backed securities with Triple A ratings were also used for this purpose. The inflow of foreign savings has offset the persistent current account deficits, and put downward pressure on interest rates. But what will happen if U.S. government bonds are no longer considered safe? The U.S. government in the past was viewed as committed to meeting its debt obligations, although the political theater around Congressional passage of the federal debt limit has introduced a note of uncertainty. In an extreme case, the U.S., like other sovereign borrowers with their own currencies, has the ability to print dollars to make debt payments. Safety has also been linked with liquidity. U.S. financial markets are deep and active.Therefore, foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds can be confident that they can sell their holdings without disrupting the bond markets and contributing to sudden declines in bond prices. However, there has always been another implicit component of the safety feature of Treasury bonds. Bondholders expect that they can claim their assets whenever they need to use them. The decision by the U.S. and European governments to deny the Russian central bank access to its own reserves has shown that foreign holders of assets placed on deposit in the U.S. may not be able to use these assets at precisely the times when they are most needed. The Russian central bank had accumulated about $585 billion, but approximately half of that amount is no longer available. The loss of access deprives the Russian central bank of foreign currency that could have helped the government deal with sanctions on its foreign trade. Moreover, the monetary authorities have not been able to use their reserves to halt the rapid decline in the ruble’s value. The other sanctions, therefore, will have a deep impact on the Russian economy. The Institute of International Finance has issued a forecast of a drop in its GDP of 15% in 2022 and another decline the following year.The use of sanctions to cut off a central bank’s access to its own reserves raises questions concerning the structure of the international financial system. Other central banks will reassess their holdings and consider alternatives to how they are held. But what other country has safe and liquid capital markets that are not subject to capital controls and are not vulnerable to U.S. and European sanctions? The Chinese currency is used by some central banks, but it is doubtful that there will be a widespread transition from dollars to the renminbi.Another concern has arisen regarding the ability of the U.S. government to meet its obligations. In order to satisfy a continued demand for safe assets, the government will need to continue to run budget deficits. But increases in the debt/GDP ratio lead to concerns about the creditworthiness of the government.These long-term concerns are arising just as the market for U.S. Treasury bonds has entered a new phase. The combination of higher inflation and changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy stance have led to increases in the rate of return on U.S. Treasury bonds to about 2.5%. With an annual increase in the CPI minus food and energy of approximately 6%, that leaves the real rate at -3.5%. Several more increases in the Federal Funds Rate will be needed to raise the real rate to positive values.A fall in the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by foreign banks and private holders would contribute to lower bond prices and higher yields. All this could affect the Federal Reserve’s policy moves if the Fed thought that it needed to factor lower foreign demand for Treasury bonds into their projections. Moreover, a shift from U.S. bonds would affect the financial account of the U.S., and the ability to run current account deficits. The exchange rate would also be affected by such a transition.
Deutsche Bank predicts US recession in 2023 due to Fed rate hikes An economic recession is on the horizon in the U.S. as the Federal Reserve makes an aggressive pivot to cool the hottest inflation in four decades, according to economists at Deutsche Bank. "We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing," Deutsche Bank economists led by Matthew Luzzetti said in the analyst note. "Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession." The analysis comes as the Fed takes a more hawkish approach to fight inflation, which is at the highest level since 1982. Policymakers raised rates by a quarter-percentage point in March, and have since signaled support for a faster, half-percentage point increase at their May meeting. Traders are now pricing in more than an 80% chance of a hefty half-point rate jump when policymakers meet next month "If we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings, we will do so," Chairman Jerome Powell said recently. "And if we determine that we need to tighten beyond common measures of neutral and into a more restrictive stance, we will do that as well." Some economists believe the Fed waited too long to confront the burst in inflation, while others have expressed concerns that moving too quickly to stabilize prices risks triggering an economic recession. Hiking interest rates tends to create higher rates on consumer and business loans, which slows the economy by forcing employers to cut back on spending. The Deutsche Bank economists said that a recession will be unavoidable as the Fed pumps the economic brakes, warning that price stability will only be "achieved through a restrictive monetary policy stance that meaningfully dents demand." They forecast a mild recession that will begin in the final quarter of next year and continue into the first quarter of 2024, with unemployment peaking above 5%. It is the first major Wall Street firm to predict a downturn in the U.S. Still, Powell has pushed back against concern that further tightening by the central bank will trigger a recession and has maintained optimism that the Fed can strike a delicate balance between taming inflation without crushing the economy. "The probability of a recession in the next year is not particularly elevated," Powell told reporters during the Fed's March meeting, citing the strong labor market, solid payroll growth and strong business and household balance sheets. "All signs are that this is a strong economy, and one that will be able to flourish in the face of less accommodative monetary policy."
Lawler: What is the Yield Curve Signaling? 0 From housing economist Tom Lawler: What is the Yield Curve Signaling? - Before addressing the above question, here is a little quiz:
The current Treasury yield is by historical standards:
(a) Unusually steep
(b) A bit flatter than normal
(c) Very unusually inverted
(d) All of the above
The current answer is, of course, (d), as the current Treasury yield curve is historically very steep from 3-months to 2-years, a bit flatter than normal from 2- to 3-years, and inverted from 3- to 10-years. (And spreads between the 3-year Treasury and the Fed funds rate is at its widest level since 1994). Below is a chart comparing average yields curves during the previous three decades compared to today’s (mid-afternoon) yield curve. Such “humped” yield curves as the current curve are unusual, and the degree of “humpiest” in the current curve is virtually unprecedented.Many analysts, economists, and financial news reporters have expressed significant “angst” recently because the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yields has turned slightly negative, and such “inversions” have been leading indicators of recessions (though lag times vary considerably.) However, there is nothing “magical” about the “10/2” spread: other yield curve measures have been comparable or some have argued even better indicators of recessions/growth slowdowns. For example, in a March “reprise” of their 2018 paper, Fed economists Engstrom and Sharpe argue that a much shorter term yield curve measure (the implied forward 3-month Treasury rate 6 months out compared to the current 3-month Treasury rate) is a better forward indicator than the 10/2 spread. While I’m not a fan of their particular “curve” indicator because (1) it requires quotes on 21 month and 18 month Treasuries, which are not readily available on screens or historically, and (2) the short part of the Treasury curve has at times been much steeper than private money market yield curves for reasons other than “expectations”. E.g., [here] is a chart comparing the historical behavior of the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year Treasury with the spread between the 5-year and the 1-year Treasury. As the chart shows, both of these yield curves meaasures have normally moved together, and both have typically inverted at about the same time – until recently. While the 10/2 spread went from an average of 79 bp in December of last year to negative 4 bp today, the 5/1 spread today is about 85 bp, down only slightly from the 93 bp average last December. And the spread between the 5-year Treasury and the Fed funds rate (not show here) has WIDENED to about 223 bp today from an 87 bp average last December. [Here] is another yield curve chart comparing spreads between 3-year Treasuries and Fed Funds as well as 3-year Treasuries and 6-month Treasuries from 1990 through today. This chart highlights have these yield curve measures have widened substantially this year. (The chart only goes back to 1990). While the current “inversion” of the Treasury yield curve from 3-year to 10 years may reflect “the market’s” view that there may be a slowdown in the economy 3+year out in part because of substanial increases in the Fed’s target Fed funds rate over the next several years (though so far the Fed has only increased the funds rate by 25 bp current steepness of the the curve from the very short end to 3 years suggest that the yield curve is not giving any signals of a slowdown in economic growth over the next several years.
Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of April 3rd. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 9.8% from the same day in 2019 (09.2% of 2019). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through April 2, 2022. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining was mostly moving sideways but declined during the winter wave of COVID and is now increasing. The 7-day average for the US is down 1% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through March 31st. Movie ticket sales were at $109 million last week, down about 46% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through March 26th. The occupancy rate was down 5.5% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is just below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through April 2nd for the United States and several selected cities. IMPORTANT: This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 122% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 38% of normal. This data is through Friday, April 1st.
White House details ‘immense’ risks of climate change for federal budget --The White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on Monday issued its first risk assessment for the impact of climate change on the federal budget, calling the fiscal risks associated with climate change “immense.” OMB personnel cited estimates by the Network for Greening the Financial System, a network of dozens of central banks around the world that develops best practices for climate finance, which said the current trajectory of climate change could lead to a 3 to 10 percent drop in gross domestic product by the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, OMB analyses determined climate change could cost federal revenues of about 7.1 percent, or $2 trillion a year, by the end of the century. Specific costs would include increases in crop insurance subsidies, which are projected to rise anywhere from 3.5 percent to 22 percent annually as a result of crop losses, while more frequent hurricanes could lead to up to $94 billion in annual spending on coastal disaster response by the end of the century. Meanwhile, under a 10-foot sea level rise, the replacement cost to more than 12,000 federal buildings would come to more than $43.7 billion. The analysis calls for a number of the priorities outlined in President Biden’s fiscal 2023 budget to be enacted to counteract these risks, including more than $7 billion to reduce emissions from the power sector and more than $5 billion to transition the transportation sector to renewable energy. The budget has no realistic chance of passing Congress but outlines the president’s priorities, particularly after ambitious climate provisions within the Build Back Better package stalled out in the Senate last year. “Investments to confront the climate crisis will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, drive down clean energy prices, make our Nation more resilient, present new opportunities for American innovation and well-paying jobs, provide benefits to historically underserved communities, and work to protect against the long-term fiscal risks identified in the new Budget analyses released today,” the OMB document states.
Biden's budget promises the moon but shoots for the middle -President Joe Biden nestled several eye-popping proposals into his latest budget request. Yet few, especially liberals' wish list taxes on the wealthiest people, stand a chance of making it to the final bill approved by Congress.The request further exemplifies a strategy Biden employed to secure him the White House in 2020 and is already hinting at using ahead of the 2022 midterm elections: promising progressive policy but governing as an establishment, donor-class Democrat.
Biden’s Defense Budget Is Detached From Reality | RealClearDefense - The Administration’s defense budget request fails to account for the world in which our warfighters must operate. It would reduce their capacity to fight and leave them inadequately prepared for current threats. It ignores the debilitating effects of inflation. And it is not accompanied by a fully formed strategy.Under this budget, the Army alone would shrink by 12,000 soldiers, in part due to recruiting challenges, despite several years of warning that the Army is already too small to accomplish all the tasks that the nation expects it to do.e Biden administration’s budget request for 2023 is what one would expect from a Democratic president in normal times: An increase in welfare spending and a cut in the military budget. But these are no ordinary times. The overall increase in discretionary spending is 9 percent, which translates to 1 percent real growth when taking into account the inflation rate of 7.9 percent. The Department of Defense, however, gets a 5 percent increase—meaning its budget shrank by 2.7 percent after inflation—despite the mounting burden on the military.On the same day that the administration released the budget request, it also released a “fact sheet” about its forthcoming National Defense Strategy, which is yet to be released to the public after many delays. In other words, no strategy document will have governed half of Joe Biden’s presidency when it comes to military spending. And it shows in the request. Reacting to the budget request, Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, a Navy veteran, tweetedthat she held back from tweeting about the budget request “because frankly it would have been mostly full of words you might expect from a Sailor.” There is an unfortunate recent fad to give every budget request a slogan. Last year’s was about a significant boost in research and development (but no acquisition). This year’s bumper sticker is “integrated deterrence” which Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hasdefined it like so: “Integrated deterrence is about using the right mix of technology, operational concepts, and capabilities—all woven together in a networked way that is so credible, and flexible, and formidable that it will give any adversary pause.” That’s about as clear as mud since this novel idea sounds a lot like what we have been trying to do for decades. “Integrated deterrence” is a term in search of a definition which the administration is using to sell its budget cuts.When one-third of the House GOP is voting against NATO, McCarthy’s lost control. Meanwhile CPAC…The cut in the requested budget comes in spite of the new burdens on the Department of Defense. From the forward deployment of more troops to Europe, to the new sexual harassment prosecution required under the National Defense Authorization Act, to diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, the Pentagon is spending more money on new programs and initiatives rather than on capabilities.
Democrats’ dilemma: Back Biden’s Pentagon budget or supersize it - - Debate is heating up on Capitol Hill on funding the military, and Democrats are facing a dilemma — back President Joe Biden’s historically high Pentagon budget or spend even more. It’s a major turnaround for a party that just two years ago was expected to restrain defense spending after budgets soared during the Trump years. Yet the new reality, spurred on by high inflation and a raging land war in Europe, means that Democrats for the second year in a row are looking at rebuffing their own president and adding tens of billions of dollars to the Defense Department’s budget that the agency didn’t ask for. Biden is seeking a $30 billion boost from the current year that would push overall national defense spending to $813 billion. Despite the hefty increase, Republicans are already putting pressure on Democrats to ladle billions more on top of that once Congress starts going through the budget. That’s what happened last year, when Republicans and Democrats on the House and Senate Armed Services Committees put aside Biden’s lower Pentagon budget request and drove defense spending higher. But the calculus is complicated by the eye-popping size of the request, high inflation, the unfolding response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and looming midterm elections. Armed Services Republicans, led by Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama and Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, are pushing for a 5 percent increase to defense spending above the rate of inflation and are again counting on enough Democrats to take their side. With the rate of inflation near 8 percent, such a boost could bring the current $743 billion Pentagon budget to well above $800 billion, though Republicans haven’t named a specific figure. Rep. Mike Rogers speaks during a House Armed Services Committee hearing.
Biden's Budget Plan Is the Wrong Way To Tax the Rich -President Biden’s new budget proposal is an exercise in political spin. The president has reaffirmed his support for his $2.4 trillion Build Back Better extravaganza, but simply left its massive cost out of his proposed tax and spending totals. Even more baffling, he’s scoring the cost of his other tax proposals against a tax code that assumed Build Back Better was already law, which inflated the claimed savings from his new plan.Between Build Back Better and the new budget, Biden is proposing a staggering $3.5 trillion in new taxes over the decade—the vast majority of which would finance huge new spending.The timing of these proposals may suggest that Washington is suffering from plummeting tax revenues. In fact, federal tax revenues last year soared to 18.1 percent of the economy—the highest share in 20 years. Furthermore, theCongressional Budget Office projects that tax revenues over the next 30 years will remain well above the typical share of the economy.Long-term deficits are instead driven by federal spending projected to leap from 21 to 32 percent of the economy over that periodBiden is targeting corporate taxes, even though these tax revenues have already jumped by 61 percent over the 2019 pre-pandemic level. If we combine Biden’s proposals in his budget and Build Back Better (and incorporate the income taxes paid by pass-through businesses), then business taxes at the federal and state level would reach 4 percent of GDP by 2025. That would exceed the business taxes of France, Germany, Britain, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark. Among the many new business taxes, Biden would raise the corporate tax rate to 28 percent, which at 32.3 percent when including state taxes would restore America’s status as the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD. We should be able to ensure corporations pay their fair share without once again making the U.S. a global outlier that incentivizes its companies to move abroad. Moving to individual taxes, Biden’s proposals targeting wealthier families helpfully close an existing loophole, but are also excessive and unworkable. Currently, the 23.8 percent capital gains tax rate on investments (including a related surtax) can be deferred until the asset is sold and the income is realized. However, an investment held until death can ultimately be passed down to heirs without any tax on its prior gains. President Biden’s proposal to finally tax those capital gains at death ensures that they do not permanently escape taxation. Yet Biden would also raise the capital gains rate as high as 43.4 percent (including the surtax) for upper-income families. This is especially excessive considering that capital gains taxes are assessed both on the inflationary growth of an asset, and the “real” growth. An investment that grows from $100 to $200 due to $50 in inflation and $50 in true appreciation would still face a $43 tax, wiping out nearly all inflation-adjusted gains. Taxing inflation is one reason the typical capital gains tax rate in Europe is 19.5 percent.Relatedly, the president would impose a 20 percent minimum tax for the superrich that—for the first time—would count the annual appreciation of capital gains as income to tax in the current year. However, taxing capital gains that have not been sold is extraordinarily complicated and unnecessary.The most obvious problem is that Washington would be taxing theoretical income that has not been realized. How does one pay a tax out of their investment income before they have actually collected the income? This is especially problematic because the proposal would be retroactive. So someone who started a $1 billion private business 30 years ago could conceivably get a $200 million tax bill in the first year. The business owner would have to either sell the business, or be assessed additional fees to defer the taxes until whenever they wish to sell the business.
'Swallowing a toad': Progressives warm to Manchin's fossil fuel demands to clinch climate package - House progressives say they may be prepared to accept policies that boost fossil fuels in the short term in order to win Sen. Joe Manchin‘s support for a party-line climate change and social spending bill to help salvage their agenda ahead of the midterm elections. Manchin killed President Joe Biden’s $1.7 trillion Build Back Better bill in December, a month after it had passed the House, dashing the hopes of climate hawks who championed the legislation’s record $550 billion in spending dedicated to reducing planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. The West Virginia centrist, who chairs the powerful Energy Committee, recently reopened the door to a smaller reconciliation package by publicly offering a framework to address climate change using tax breaks to a push a bevy of clean energy technologies while also rolling back Republicans’ 2017 tax cuts and reforming prescription drug pricing. At the same time, Manchin is pressing Biden to restart new offshore oil and gas lease sales and expedite exports of natural gas to increase U.S. energy security and lower inflated energy prices caused by supply chain constraints and Russia’s war in Ukraine. “If [Manchin] wants some increase for short-term production for the broader package of $500 billion on renewables, I am open to that,” said Rep. Ro Khanna of California, a deputy whip in the Congressional Progressive Caucus. “It’s not ideal for the climate, but I am not comfortable with Americans paying 6, 7 bucks for gas.” Manchin hasn’t explicitly said he would seek to include pro-fossil fuel policies in exchange for reengaging on a new climate and clean energy package. And many of the moves he’s pushed would come under the purview of the Biden administration and would be unlikely to be included in reconciliation legislation. But voters’ frustration with high energy prices and the likelihood that Democrats will lose control of the House in November’s midterm elections have made progressives more open to a deal to salvage what could be their only foreseeable legislative path for climate action. The party only holds a three-seat House majority. “The reality is we don’t have the votes to do everything we want,” said Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.), a member of the House Climate Crisis Committee. “So compromise is called for. Is it the compromise I would like? No. But we have a saying in the Virginia legislature. Every now and again you have to swallow a toad. And this is swallowing a toad.” Indeed, liberals who believe the best way to prevent petrostates such as Russia from driving up U.S. gasoline prices is to supercharge spending on clean energy to replace fossil fuels realize they’ll have to accept policies to boost oil and gas production in the short term. “If we are saying that in this moment we need to stimulate the production of fossil fuel, that has to be tied to a longer-term move to prevent this from happening again,” said Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), deputy chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. “I am willing to compromise. I am willing to negotiate. Americans are feeling it at the pump.”
Yellen emphasizes need for multilateralism as Russia sanctions escalate -— Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged Congress to cooperate with the Biden administration as it continues to develop the U.S. sanctions regime against Russia amid the war in Ukraine. Yellen, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, also emphasized the importance of maintaining the multilateral approach that the U.S. and its allies have taken to suffocating the Russian economy. The Treasury secretary specifically highlighted the role of international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in strengthening the Russia sanctions regime and limiting economic fallout for the rest of the world.
Senate votes 100-0 to limit trade with Russia, ban oil imports -The Senate on Thursday unanimously passed a package to end normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and codify the administration’s ban on Russian oil imports, capping off weeks of negotiations that had stalled the legislation. Senators voted 100-0 on two bills. The first ends permanent normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. The bill also reauthorizes Magnitsky Act sanctions that target human rights violations and corruption with penalties like visa bans or asset freezes.The second bill, which also passed 100-0, codifies the Biden administration’s ban on Russian oil imports. Because the Senate made changes to both bills, they need to be passed by the House before they go to President Biden’s desk. The House is expected to pass the bills on Thursday, a day after the Senate announced on Wednesday night that it has reached a deal. “No nation whose military is committing war crimes deserves free-trade status with the United States. No vile thug like Putin deserves to stand as an equal with the leaders of the free world,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said ahead of the votes.Senators were under pressure to reach an agreement before they leave town on Thursday for a two-week break and as Russia continues its weeks-long bloody invasion of Ukraine. That pressure only grew this week after photos emerged over the weekend of destruction in Bucha, a town northwest of Ukraine’s capital, including images of people lying dead in the streets and in mass graves, triggering widespread condemnation.Biden said that he believed Russia had committed war crimes, while Schumer went further, saying it was “genocide, and Mr. Putin is guilty of it.”The Senate’s vote is the first Ukraine-related bill it has had a roll call vote on since it passed billions in Ukraine aid as part of a sweeping government funding bill last month.The trade bill passed the House on March 17, while the bill to codify the Biden administration’s oil ban passed on March 9.
House panel to grill oil executives on high gas prices - The top executives of six of the nation’s largest oil and gas companies testified before Congress on Wednesday, at a time when high gas prices have become a political flash point in Washington and across the country. The executives from BP America, Chevron, Devon Energy, ExxonMobil, Pioneer Natural Resources and Shell USA faced tough questions from Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee about their purported role in Americans’ pain at the pump. Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said fuel prices were set by market dynamics and that his company had "no tolerance for price gauging.” Gas prices surged after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, hitting $4.33 a gallon on March 11 before falling to $4.16 a gallon Wednesday, according to AAA. Prices of crude oil have dropped much more steeply, from a peak of more than $139 per barrel in early March to about $107 on Tuesday. Democrats hammered oil executives at Wednesday’s hearing over why gas prices have not fallen in tandem with crude prices, accusing the fossil fuel firms of engaging in “war profiteering” at the expense of American consumers. “These prices are constraining our constituents’ budgets and patience,” said Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), chair of the Energy and Commerce subcommittee on oversight and investigations. The executives defended themselves from such claims, noting that energy industry analysts have said it’s natural for gas prices to fall more slowly than crude prices. The trend is known in the industry as the “rockets and feathers” phenomenon. “I want to be absolutely clear: We do not control the market price of crude oil or natural gas, nor of refined products like gasoline and diesel fuel, and we have no tolerance for price gouging,” said Michael Wirth, chairman and CEO of Chevron. Democrats also argued that fossil fuel companies have been using their soaring profits amid the war in Ukraine to enrich investors through stock buybacks and dividends, rather than to lower gas prices.
Democrats accuse oil industry of "ripping off" Americans, while GOP blames Biden -Democrats tore into oil company executives for high gasoline prices at a hearing Wednesday of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee, while Republicans used the event to try to pin the blame on President Joe Biden’s green energy push. The hearings are congressional Democrats’ latest attempt to shield themselves from voters’ anger over the surge in pump prices to record highs above $4.33 a gallon last month after Russia invaded Ukraine. That jump has fed inflation, driving up prices for food, heating and other staples in recent months. Democrats on the committee pointed to the market chaos that has sent crude oil prices soaring above $130 a barrel just two years after the price fell into negative territory for the first time ever. But they point out that oil companies are now posting some of their biggest profits ever, with the six companies testifying at Wednesday’s hearing reaping more than a combined $76 billion last year. “We understand that the Covid-19 pandemic threw that marketplace into disarray,” said Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), head of the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s investigations and oversight subcommittee. “And we understand that Vladimir Putin’s senseless, vicious invasion of Ukraine has further reduced the world’s oil supply as more and more companies are unwilling to buy Russian oil. But there’s the thing — if the price of gas is driven by the local market, why is the price of oil coming down but the price at the pump is still near record highs?” Oil prices have declined by about 20 percent from their early March peak, while retail gasoline prices have retreated only about 4 percent and stood at $4.16 a gallon nationally on Wednesday, according to the American Automobile Association. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) complained that companies were sending billions of dollars to shareholders in the form of dividends and stock buybacks even as fuel prices rose. Pallone asked each executive whether they would consider cutting dividends or buybacks, something none of them would commit to.
Oil Executives Speak About High Gas Prices at House Hearing - The New York Times— Amid a swirl of partisan finger-pointing on who is responsible for rising energy prices, executives of six large oil and gas companies defended themselves on Wednesday against criticisms that they are seeking to boost corporate profits by refusing to produce more oil and gas. They appeared before a House committee as high gasoline prices have become a central issue ahead of the midterm elections in November. Republicans have blamed Biden administration regulations and environmental policies for shortfalls in energy production, while Democrats have questioned why companies could not lower gasoline prices as oil prices have eased somewhatsince a spike after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trying to duck the political debate, the executives said they were not engaging in price gouging and were merely responding to global commodity prices that were out of their control. They also said they were working to shift to cleaner energy.“We are here to get answers from big oil companies on why they are ripping off the American people,” said Representative Frank Pallone Jr., a New Jersey Democrat and chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee, during the hearing. “At a time of record profits, Big Oil is refusing to increase production.”The oil executives took exception to the accusations by Democrats, but remained low key in their responses.“Because oil is a global commodity, Shell does not set or control the price of crude oil,” Gretchen H. Watkins, the president of Shell USA, told the committee in her prepared remarks. “Today’s crisis and the pressure on hydrocarbon supplies and prices reveal the urgent need to accelerate the energy transition.”Michael Wirth, Chevron’s chief executive, insisted that the company had “no tolerance for price gouging.”With his approval ratings falling to a new low as inflation has stayed high for months, President Biden has struggled to explain the rise in gas prices to the American people. In an attempt to capitalize on broad support for crippling sanctions on Russia, the administration has tried to characterize the recent uptick in gas prices as “Putin’s price hike.”But Republicans have tried to hang the increase around the president’s neck, noting that the price of gas has been on the rise for a year, long before Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. They have used anxiety about higher gas prices as their main argument to voters about the need for a change in leadership.Republicans have hammered Mr. Biden for his cancellation of permits for the Keystone XL oil pipeline, as well as pauses on new leases for oil wells on federal lands. White House officials have tried to explain that neither policy is responsible for the rise in gas prices. In reality, the loosening of pandemic restrictions has increased demand for gas when supply is not rising quickly enough. Both supply and demand are being driven by factors that are out of the control of Mr. Biden and Congress.Still, the attacks appear to be working. In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, only 24 percent of respondents said they thought the rise in gas prices was a result of the war in Ukraine, with more Americans blaming the Biden administration’s policies.
GAO: Postal service used questionable assumptions to make case for continuing gas-powered fleet ---Preliminary analysis by the U.S. Government Accountability Office "raises questions" about the way in which the U.S. Postal Service justified a February decision to continue purchasing internal combustion engine mail delivery vehicles, according to testimony before the House Committee on Oversight and Reform on Tuesday.Rising gasoline prices, higher fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs are all factors that could make electric vehicles the best choice for the government's largest civilian fleet, GAO Acting Director of Physical Infrastructure Jill Naamane told lawmakers. And while there are higher upfront costs to going electric, those are declining, she said. The new Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards will increase fuel efficiency 8% annually for model years 2024-2025 and 10% annually for model year 2026, DOT said. The new standards require a fleet average of 49 miles per gallon by 2026. "Major automakers are investing billions in zero-emission and electric vehicles, and consumers are buying them in record numbers. Now we just need to step on the accelerator — and the new standards will do exactly that," Center for Climate and Energy Solutions President Nathaniel Keohane said in a statement. But the new standards do not apply to the USPS fleet, which operates almost 200,000 mail delivery vehicles and is currently purchasing what it calls Next Generation Delivery Vehicles (NGDV). GAO found that the assumption USPS used in its purchasing analysis "appears to assume the NGDV gas vehicles would achieve a gas mileage efficiency of 15 miles per gallon, which does not account for the use of air conditioning," Naamane said in prepared testimony. USPS Inspector General Tammy Whitcomb said that "in response to a recently received Congressional request, we have initiated an audit focusing on the Postal Service’s vehicle acquisition process." The review will also consider whether the postal service complied with the National Environmental Policy Act, and will dig into the environmental impact statement supporting the independent agency's analysis. Naamane said the postal service's analysis used a gas price almost $2 per gallon less than the current national average price of gas, which has been recently pushed up by the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The analysis also assumed more expensive maintenance costs for electric delivery vehicles, and did not include pollution reductions as benefits of the change.
EV leaders want Biden to be more aggressive with Defense Production Act - Industry figures and environmental groups are urging President Biden to go beyond his initial use of the Defense Production Act (DPA) and seize the opportunity to build out supply chains and infrastructure to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. The DPA, a Cold War-era law used by President Harry Truman, allows the president to prioritize the manufacturing of certain materials in the national interest. The White House is using the law to promote the domestic production of rare-earth minerals used for electric vehicle (EV) batteries that would otherwise have to be imported from China. The White House announcement on the DPA this week specifically identifies minerals like nickel, lithium, cobalt and graphite. Biden is leaning on the DPA amid growing fears about China’s economic power and supply chain problems that have contributed to inflation in the United States. It also comes as Russia’s war on Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Moscow have exacerbated a spike in gas prices, putting a pinch on U.S. consumers and adding to the political problems for Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. John DeMaio, CEO of EV battery materials processor Graphex Technologies, told The Hill the DPA would be of limited use to the industry without further adjustments. “The DPA should be used to provide grants, tax breaks and facility construction incentives to all players in the EV battery space. It’s important that these economic supports are extended throughout the industry — including raw materials companies, materials processing companies, EV battery producers, and automakers,” DeMaio said in an email. “A disjointed domestic supply chain does us no good — more available battery materials don’t aid EV automakers unless there is a matched increase in processing and battery production.”
Chip companies spent $100M lobbying Congress for $52B in subsidies -Chip companies have spent $100 million in lobbying expenditures over the last several years in hopes of getting 500 times that back from the federal government in the form of subsidies. That would be a healthy return on an investment.The chip industry’s spending on lobbying has risen sharply in recent years, as lawmakers have been debating $52 billion in federal subsidies aimed at bolstering American chip production and innovation. To help convince lawmakers to set aside federal dollars for the industry, lobbying expenditures have increased roughly 50% since 2018, jumping to $46.4 million in 2021. Four years ago, chip companies spent $31.7 million in D.C., according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics.By comparison, the internet industry — which includes tech giants Facebook, Google and Amazon — increased its spending by 18% to $90.2 million during the same period, according to the CRP data. Unlike chip companies, Big Tech has faced rapidly escalating issues in Washington prompting discussion of regulation that threatens to damage profits or break apart businesses.The chip industry didn’t spend all of its cash lobbying for subsidies, according to disclosure forms reviewed by Protocol. Chip companies have begun to realize that they are increasingly subject to the whims of Washington as their businesses have grown and become a more prominent part of the economy, contributing to a broad swath of industries. The change in thinking has resulted in an overall increase in lobbying efforts over the past four years, including the battle for subsidies.Some companies, such as Qualcomm and Intel, disclose each specific law their lobbyists are pushing for, while other businesses only report general topic areas such as intellectual property or trade. From the filings, it's not clear exactly how much cash the industry spent directly on lobbying for manufacturing subsidies.But what is clear is that spending began to ramp up in 2020, reaching $37.7 million as the first subsidy bill was introduced in Congress. At that point, big chip manufacturers such as GlobalFoundries and TSMC, the latter of which had not previously spent money on lobbyists in the U.S., ramped up their efforts. GlobalFoundries has announced factory expansion plans in Malta, New York, and increased its lobbying outlays to $1.7 million in 2021 from $1.4 million in 2020. GlobalFoundries did not respond to a request for comment.
Health Care — Senate agrees to provide $10 billion in COVID funds --Senators in both parties have reached a deal to provide $10 billion for the fight against COVID-19, but the agreement leaves out funding for the global virus response, according to Senate aides. The agreement could clear the path for Congress to finally pass some new funding for the virus response, which the White House has been warning for weeks is urgently needed to allow for purchases of more vaccines, treatments and tests. However, the $10 billion deal is less than half of the $22.5 billion the White House initially requested. Even that full amount was only for short-term needs, and the White House said it would need to come back for more money later. That means another COVID-19 funding fight could soon come down the pike as well. The shrinking size of the COVID-19 funding is due to a fight over how to pay for the measures. Republican senators have insisted that any new COVID-19 funding be paid for and have resisted any plan for new funding that was not offset.
Pelosi tests positive for COVID-19 --House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has tested positive for COVID-19 and is in quarantine, her office announced Thursday morning. Pelosi’s deputy chief of staff, Drew Hammill, announced Pelosi’s diagnosis in a statement, saying the Speaker is showing no symptoms associated with the virus. “After testing negative this week, Speaker Pelosi received a positive test result for COVID-19 and is currently asymptomatic. The Speaker is fully vaccinated and boosted, and is thankful for the robust protection the vaccine has provided,” Hammill also wrote in a tweet. “The Speaker will quarantine consistent with CDC guidance, and encourages everyone to get vaccinated, boosted and test regularly,” he said. Pelosi was at the White House on Wednesday alongside President Biden for the signing of a Postal Service reform bill. The announcement of her diagnosis came moments before Pelosi was scheduled to stage her weekly press conference in the Capitol, sending the gathered reporters scrambling to deliver the news. The press conference was quickly canceled. The diagnosis also arrives as the House is preparing to leave Washington for an 18-day recess around the Easter holiday. A number of lawmakers have scheduled overseas trips during the break, including Pelosi, who had reportedly planned to visit Taiwan on Sunday — a trip prompting threats of retaliation from Beijing. Pelosi’s office has decline to confirm that trip, but Hammill on Thursday said a “planned Congressional delegation to Asia” has been postponed to an unspecified date.
Pelosi among burst of new DC COVID-19 cases - The COVID-19 outbreak hitting official Washington has reached Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Pelosi’s deputy chief of staff, Drew Hammill, announced Pelosi’s diagnosis in a statement, saying the Speaker is showing no symptoms associated with the virus. “After testing negative this week, Speaker Pelosi received a positive test result for COVID-19 and is currently asymptomatic. The Speaker is fully vaccinated and boosted, and is thankful for the robust protection the vaccine has provided,” Hammill also wrote in a tweet. “The Speaker will quarantine consistent with CDC guidance, and encourages everyone to get vaccinated, boosted and test regularly,” he said. Pelosi was at the White House on Wednesday alongside President Biden for the signing of a Postal Service reform bill. The diagnosis also arrives as the House is preparing to leave Washington for an 18-day recess around the Easter holiday. A number of lawmakers have scheduled overseas trips during the break, including Pelosi, who had reportedly planned to visit Taiwan on Sunday — a trip prompting threats of retaliation from Beijing.
Sen. Warnock, Democratic congressman test positive for COVID-19 - Senator Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) announced Thursday that they had tested positive for COVID-19 in breakthrough cases.Warnock said in a tweet that he tested positive for COVID-19 that afternoon after a “routine test.”“I’m so thankful to be both vaccinated & boosted, and at the advice of the Attending Physician I plan to isolate,” Warnock said. “Thanks to being fully vaccinated, I am only experiencing mild cold-like symptoms and fatigue,” DeFazio tweeted Thursday night.The Oregon lawmaker said he would follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance and quarantine.Warnock’s and DeFazio’s positive tests follow an influx of COVID-19 cases among lawmakers, including Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).Collins and Warnock were both on the Senate floor earlier Thursday to vote on the confirmation of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) also announced Thursday that she had tested positive for COVID-19, adding that she would isolate in accordance with CDC guidelines.Amid concerns about interactions between President Biden and Pelosi before her positive test result, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Thursday that Biden had not come into close contact with the speaker.“All of their interactions were publicly available, I think you saw them, and that’s how that assessment is made,” said Psaki. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Attorney General Merrick Garland, Assistant House Speaker Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) are among the other political figures who have recently tested positive for the virus, with all of them announcing the test results Wednesday.
Federal appeals court upholds Biden vaccine mandate for federal workers --A federal appeals court on Thursday ruled to uphold the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate for federal workers, ordering that a preliminary injunction issued against the requirement be eliminated.The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals’s 2-1 ruling reversed an earlier ruling by U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Brown, a Trump appointee in Texas, who in January blocked the mandate for federal workers. The 5th Circuit Court further ordered that the district court dismiss the case.Judge Carl Stewart, writing for the majority opinion, said plaintiffs in the case could have challenged the vaccine mandate through the federal government’s internal process for federal workers.“The plaintiffs could have challenged an agency’s proposed action against them before filing this suit and certainly before getting vaccinated,” the judge wrote.Biden implemented the mandate for federal workers in September, with religious and medical exemptions allowed. Under the order, non-exempt employees must get vaccinated or they could face disciplinary procedures, including termination.A group called Feds for Medical Freedom, a 6,000-member organization, sued in December, challenging the order on the grounds that it exceeds the president’s authority. The federal judge in Texas agreed and blocked the mandate in January, but the government appealed to the 5th Circuit. At issue in the case is whether federal workers can seek relief from discipline through the Civil Service Reform Act (CSRA), which protects employees from unfair or unwanted practices. However, the government argues the plaintiffs are trying to circumvent the process, to which Stewart agreed.
Judge overturns Pentagon restrictions on HIV-positive service members -A federal judge on Wednesday struck down longstanding Department of Defense (DOD) restrictions that bar HIV-positive military service members from becoming officers and deploying in active duty outside the U.S.District Court Judge Leonie Brinkema of the Eastern District of Virginia ruled in favor of three service members in two separate cases, according to court documents shared by Buzzfeed News. The plaintiffs in one case, under the pseudonyms Richard Roe and Victor Voe, had sued after being discharged by the Air Force in relation to a ban on overseas deployment because they were HIV-positive.In the other, Nicholas Harrison had brought a lawsuit after his application to commission as a military lawyer with the Judge Advocate General Corps was denied. In the former case, Brinkema ruled that the DOD cannot separate or discharge Roe and Voe or any other asymptomatic HIV-positive service member “with an undetectable viral load” because their HIV leads them to be deemed ineligible for “worldwide deployment” or to be deployed to U.S. Central Command. She further ruled in the latter case that applications to commission as officers made by service members in the same condition cannot be denied for those reasons. She also ordered the Secretary of the Air Force to rescind the discharge papers given to Roe and Voe and the Secretary of the Army to rescind her decision to deny Harrison’s application, ruling that both officials must reevaluate the decisions in a way that is consistent with her orders.
The end of COVID-19 testing for the uninsured: The American ruling class doubles down on mass infection -Last month, the US program that pays for COVID-19 tests for uninsured people stopped accepting claims “due to lack of sufficient funds.” This means that in large sections of the United States, those without health insurance will have no access to COVID-19 testing unless they can pay out of pocket. Some clinics have already started to turn away people without insurance who come to get tested and cannot afford to pay for it. This takes place as a new wave of infections from the even more contagious Omicron BA.2 subvariant is gathering strength. The example of Europe, where BA.2 is driving a new surge in infections and deaths, is a warning of what is to come in the United States. Many low-income workers and unemployed have already experienced the humiliation of being turned away from testing centers or vaccination clinics because they were uninsured and could not afford to pay the $125 charge for a PCR test, the most accurate way to detect infection, or similar charges for vaccination. And of course, the uninsured have no way to pay the thousands of dollars that hospitalization for a COVID-19 infection would require. Speaking last week, Biden ascribed the cutoff of funding for COVID-19 testing to “congressional inaction.” In reality, the ending of free COVID-19 testing and vaccination is entirely in keeping with the administration’s COVID-19 policy. The Biden administration has used the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant as a pretext to abandon all measures to stop the spread of COVID-19. It is allowing virtually the entire American population to become infected and re-infected with COVID-19 into the future indefinitely. To that end, in December, as the Omicron surge was just beginning, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) slashed the recommended duration of isolation in half for people infected with COVID-19. On January 21, the CDC, under the direction of the White House, launched a campaign for states to end mask mandates. On March 26, Hawaii became the last US state to end its mask mandate. Every single governor, Democratic and Republican, has ended this most minimal mitigation measure. The rollback of testing is occurring internationally. On April 1, free COVID-19 testing ended in the UK, almost simultaneously with the measure in the US. Without testing, it becomes impossible to control the spread of the disease through isolation and quarantine, allowing it to spread unimpaired throughout the population, while suppressing official case numbers.
Drop in Life Expectancy ‘Speaks Volumes’ About How US Handled Covid: Expert - Just over a month into year three of the Covid-19 pandemic, research revealed Thursday that life expectancy in the United States declined again in 2021—which followed a well-documented drop in 2020 and contrasted a recovery trend in other high-income countries.The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, shows that U.S. life expectancy fell from 78.86 years in 2019 to 76.99 years in 2020 and 76.60 years in 2021, a net loss of 2.26 years.The study comes just days after a Poor People’s Campaign analysis exposed how the public health crisis was twice as deadly in poor counties as in wealthy ones and “exacerbated preexisting social and economic disparities that have long festered in the U.S.” Johns Hopkins University’s case tracker reported that as of Thursday afternoon, Covid-19 had claimed 984,571 lives across the United States, or nearly 16% of the more than six million deaths globally.Dr. Steven Woolf, co-author of the new study and director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, saidin a statement that “we already knew that the U.S. experienced historic losses in life expectancy in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. What wasn’t clear is what happened in 2021.”“Early in 2021, knowing an excellent vaccine was being distributed, I was hopeful that the U.S. could recover some of its historic losses,” said Woolf. “But I began to worry more when I saw what happened as the year unfolded.”“Even so, as a scientist, until I saw the data it remained an open question how U.S. life expectancy for that year would be affected,” he added. “It was shocking to see that U.S. life expectancy, rather than having rebounded, had dropped even further.” In addition to examining the United States, the researchers looked at life expectancy over the past two years in 19 “peer countries,” and found a smaller drop between 2019 and 2020—an average of 0.57 years—followed by an average 0.28-year increase from 2020 to 2021.“While other high-income countries saw their life expectancy increase in 2021, recovering about half of their losses, U.S. life expectancy continued to fall,” Woolf said. “This speaks volumes about the life consequences of how the U.S. handled the pandemic.”
Biden faces rising pressure on student loans with deadline looming -President Biden is in a difficult position on student loans ahead of the midterms, as pressure builds from borrowers and Democrats for widespread cancellation. Adding to the pressure is a key deadline: On May 1, millions of borrowers will have to pay unless a freeze on federal student loan payments put in place during the pandemic is extended. Biden has been called on to extend the freeze until the next year — beyond the midterms. But advocates for forgiveness, along with key Democrats, want more than another freeze. “We’ve been saying for years now that we need to keep payments on pause until we cancel student debt,” said Natalia Abrams, president and founder of the Student Debt Crisis Center (SDCC). Biden last extended the suspension in December. Loan payments were first paused in March 2020 under former President Trump, and have since been extended five times. A growing number of Democrats are calling for a new extension, ramping up pressure on the White House. “I’m hopeful that the president is going to take action,” Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) told The Hill this week. “It is something that is extraordinarily popular, not just with people with student loans, but families of people going to college.” White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Friday said a decision needs to be made before May. She said the administration will “factor the impacts of economic data on ranges of groups of people, including students.” In 2020, Biden was one of a number of Democratic presidential candidates who called for widespread cancellation of federal student loans.
Nearly 17K Americans may request gender ‘X’ passport this year – An estimated 16,700 U.S. residents are expected to request passports with an “X” gender designation this year, according to a Williams Institute analysis. Currently, 21 states and the District of Columbia allow residents to select an ‘X’ gender marker for their driver’s licenses. The study did not account for changes in demand over time, and demand in the first year of implementation could be higher because of pent-up interest or lower because of lack of knowledge of the new gender marker’s availability. Demand for passports with an “X” gender designation could spike once the option is made widely available beginning this month, according to a new report by the Williams Institute, an LGBTQ+ public policy think tank, with nearly 17,000 of the nation’s more than 1 million nonbinary LGBTQ+ residents expected to request an official gender-neutral identity document from the state department. An estimated 16,700 people will request an “X” gender marker on their passports this year, according to the Williams Institute, representing roughly 1.4 percent of the country’s nonbinary LGBTQ+ population. Currently, 21 states and the District of Columbia allow residents to select an ‘X’ gender marker for their driver’s licenses, an option that has been relatively popular among individuals identifying as neither male nor female.
Senators to restart bipartisan immigration reform talks - A bipartisan group of senators want to start formally convening meetings to try to restart immigration reform efforts after the Senate returns to Washington, D.C., from an April break. A bipartisan immigration deal appears to be congressional Democrats’ best hope of making good on their pledge to reform immigration, after Democrats’ attempts to go it alone as part of a sweeping bill unraveled last year. They would face a significant uphill climb getting such a reform deal heading into the November election, where Republicans plan to make the issue a key line of attack. But Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told The Hill that they want to bring together a group of senators interested in trying to revive immigration discussions — a perennial policy white whale for Congress — after a two-week recess. “Yes … we want to sit at a table and ask members who have immigration, bipartisan immigration bills, to come and propose those bills to us and see if we can build a 60-vote plus margin for a group of bills. It may not be possible, but I think it is,” Durbin said when asked about holding meetings after the recess. Tillis, asked by The Hill about the talks, added that after the recess he wanted to “start some working groups leading up to whenever we can have a [committee] mark up.” Tillis and Durbin have had nascent discussions amongst themselves, though much of Durbin’s focus in recent weeks has been on getting Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson confirmed to the Supreme Court. Durbin has also previously said that his staff was working with the staff of Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) — though the Texas Republican said Thursday that he hadn’t heard about that. Durbin confirmed to The Hill that meetings after the break would be the first time they’ve formally met and sat down with their colleagues to try to start sketching out a possible path forward. In addition to Tillis, Durbin noted that he had mentioned trying to revive immigration talks “with several people” in the Senate. The group’s effort is the latest in recent years to try to figure out how to get a deal on immigration reform that could pass both the House and Senate — efforts to do so have previously failed.
Sanders Hails Growing Union Movement as Threat to ‘Oligarchy and Corporate Greed’ --Sen. Bernie Sanders delivered a floor speech on Monday hailing the growing wave of union victories across the United States, including high-profile wins by Amazon and Starbucks workers, as an essential challenge to the country’s vastly unequal political and economic status quo.“While the billionaire class is becoming much, much richer, real weekly wages for American workers are $40 lower today than they were 49 years ago,” Sanders (I-Vt.) said in an address in the Senate chamber just days after Amazon warehouse workers in Staten Island, New York voted to form the company’s first-ever union in the U.S.“In fact,” Sanders continued, “during that period there has been a massive, massive transfer of wealth from the working class and middle class of our country to the top 1%.”The Vermont senator pointed to a recent analysis estimating that $50 trillion in wealth was redistributed from the bottom 90% to the top 1% between 1975 and 2018.That decades-long trend of ballooning wealth at the very top has accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic, which has seen the roughly 700 billionaires in the U.S. add $1.7 trillionto their collective fortunes as Covid-19 inflicted devastation on the country, with poor communities and low-paid workers bearing the brunt.“Today,” said Sanders, “multi-billionaires like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Richard Branson are off taking joy rides on rocket ships to outer space, buying $500 million super-yachts, and living in mansions with 25 bathrooms. And let’s be clear. It’s not just income and wealth inequality. It is economic and political power.”
Romney to support Ketanji Brown Jackson, praises her as ‘person of honor’ - Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who hails from one of the most conservative states in the country, announced Monday that he will vote for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to serve as the first Black woman on the Supreme Court and praised her as “a person of honor.” Romney, who voted twice to convict former President Trump on impeachment charges and played a central role in negotiating a bipartisan infrastructure bill last year, took another big step toward the center by announcing his plan to vote in favor of Jackson’s confirmation. “After reviewing Judge Jackson’s record and testimony, I have concluded that she is a well-qualified jurist and a person of honor. While I do not expect to agree with every decision she may make on the Court, I believe that she more than meets the standard of excellence and integrity,” Romney said in a statement. Romney joined fellow centrist GOP Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine) as the only three Republicans to announce their support for Jackson. The Utah Republican voted against confirming Jackson to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals in June of last year — splitting with Murkowski and Collins, who voted to seat her on the appellate court. But Romney had warm words for the nominee after meeting with her last week. “Her dedication to public service and her family are obvious, and I enjoyed our meeting,” he said. The announcement raises new questions about whether Romney, who is 75, will run for a second Senate term in 2024.
Collins, Murkowski, Romney help break deadlock on Jackson’s nomination Senate Democrats, backed by three GOP senators, voted on Monday night to break a deadlock on Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Supreme Court nomination, paving the way for her to be confirmed by the end of the week. Senators voted 53-47 to formally discharge Jackson’s nomination to the full Senate. It’s the first time the Senate has had to take the procedural step for a Supreme Court nominee since 1853. GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Mitt Romney (Utah) voted with Democrats to make Jackson’s nomination available for a full Senate vote. Collins announced last week that she would vote for Jackson. Meanwhile, Murkowski and Romney said in statements on Monday. that they would back Jackson, becoming the second and third GOP senators to support her, respectively. “I will support the motion to discharge Judge Jackson’s nomination later tonight, and her confirmation later this week,” Murkowski said in a statement. Romney added in a separate statement that he had “concluded that she is a well-qualified jurist and a person of honor.” “While I do not expect to agree with every decision she may make on the Court, I believe that she more than meets the standard of excellence and integrity,” he added. Monday’s vote puts Jackson on track to be confirmed as the first Black, female Supreme Court justice by the end of the week.
Senate overcomes GOP hurdle to advance Jackson - Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is one step closer to the Supreme Court after the Senate dislodged her nomination from a deadlocked Judiciary committee, a rare step for a high court hopeful. In a 53-47 vote, the Senate voted to advance Jackson’s nomination out of committee, with Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah) joining all 50 members of the Democratic caucus in supporting Biden’s high court pick. All three of those senators have now said they will support Jackson’s confirmation to the high court. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had to move to discharge the nomination due to an 11-11 tie in the judiciary panel, which fell along party lines. He said that the procedural vote should be “entirely unnecessary,” but he added it would not change the outcome. Democratic leaders are aiming to confirm Jackson to become the first Black female Supreme Court Justice by the end of the week. “There is no question, no question that Judge Jackson deserves a strong bipartisan vote in committee,” Schumer said. “We shouldn’t have to be taking this step, but we are moving forward all the same without delay. Despite Republicans opposing her in committee and despite the procedural vote tonight, Judge Jackson ultimately has enough support to get confirmed on a bipartisan basis.” Despite the evenly split panel vote Monday evening, President Joe Biden’s White House saw Jackson’s bipartisan margin of support grow, with Murkowski and Romney announcing Monday evening that they would support her bid. Collins had previously announced she’d back Jackson. Biden had personally called all three senators about the Supreme Court vacancy, after Justice Stephen Breyer announced his retirement. In their statements of support, both Republican senators highlighted Jackson’s qualifications. Romney said that Jackson “more than meets the standard of excellence and integrity.” Murkowski, meanwhile, added that her support “rests on my rejection of the corrosive politicization of the review process for Supreme Court nominees.” Murkowski and Collins had supported Jackson’s nomination to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, while Romney previously voted against her. But Romney had indicated that his review of her Supreme Court nomination would be different. The timing of Monday’s Judiciary committee vote was later than expected after Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), a member of the panel, faced a flight delay. But the vote tally was all but sealed, after Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) announced they would vote against Jackson ahead of the hearing. Democrats had privately hoped those two senators would consider supporting Jackson or abstaining, given their comparatively friendly style of questioning during her confirmation hearings.
Senate confirms Jackson as first Black female Supreme Court justice - The Senate made history on Thursday when it confirmed Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, handing President Biden a significant win. Jackson’s ascension to the country’s highest court breaks multiple barriers: She will be the court’s first Black female justice and its first former public defender. Senators voted 53-47 on Jackson’s confirmation. GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Mitt Romney (Utah) bucked their party and voted to confirm her. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) touted Jackson’s nomination as a “joyous, momentous, groundbreaking day.” “In the 233-year history of the Supreme Court, never — never — has a Black woman held the title of ‘justice.’ Ketanji Brown Jackson will be the first, and I believe the first of more to come,” Schumer said. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), one of three Black lawmakers in the Senate, acknowledged his own daughters in a speech shortly before Thursday’s vote, saying “the historic nature of [Jackon’s] appointment isn’t lost on me.” “I know what it has taken for Judge Jackson to get to this moment, and nobody is going to steal my joy,” he said. Underscoring the historic nature of the vote, Vice President Harris — who was the first female, first Black and first Asian American person to hold the No. 2 office — presided over the chamber’s confirmation of Jackson. “I’m overjoyed, deeply moved. You know, there’s so much about what’s happening in the world now that is presenting some of the worst of … human behaviors and then we have a moment like this that I think reminds us that there is still so much yet to accomplish and that we can accomplish, including a day like today that is so historic and so important, for so many reasons,” Harris told reporters as she was leaving the Capitol.
Democrats reject calls to impeach far-right Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas Text messages implicating Virginia “Ginni” Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, in Trump’s January 6 conspiracy have exposed flagrant judicial misconduct by her husband, who voted on the Supreme Court to block access to documents by the congressional committee investigating the coup plot in which his own wife participated. The exposure of egregious judicial misconduct by the reactionary Supreme Court justice has been met with conspicuous silence from the Biden White House, which is focused on achieving “national unity” with the Republicans in the context of the US-NATO war against Russia. Pressed on the issue over the past week, leading Democrats likewise declined to state that they would take any significant action against Clarence Thomas in response to the revelations. On March 23, the Washington Post and CBS News reported the existence of at least 29 text messages between Ginni Thomas and Mark Meadows, then-President Donald Trump’s chief of staff, following the November 2020 election. The text messages directly implicate both Ginni Thomas and Meadows in the plot to overthrow the government. The messages are remarkable for the extent to which they establish the intimate involvement of Ginni Thomas in the highest levels of the coup plot, as well as for their semi-literate incoherence and embrace of fascistic QAnon tropes. In one rambling text message, Ginni Thomas wrote: “Biden crime family & ballot fraud co-conspirators … are being arrested & detained for ballot fraud right now & over coming days, & will be living in barges off GITMO to face military tribunals for sedition.” This message references and celebrates the QAnon narrative of the supposed “storm,” during which Trump will have abducted all of his left-wing opponents and transported them to overseas concentration camps, such as the infamous torture center in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba (“GITMO”). It bears repeating that this embrace of mass fascist repression was sent by the wife of a US Supreme Court justice to the chief of staff of the then-US president. The Ginni Thomas text messages reference other extreme-right tropes, including an imaginary financial system (the “Quantum Financial System”), together with material published by far-right figure Steve Pieczenik, who previously claimed that the Sandy Hook school shooting was a “false flag” operation, and who also claimed that 2020 ballots had been “secretly watermarked” with a special encryption code. Meadows did nothing to distance himself from this deranged filth. Instead, at one point he replied: “I will stand firm. We will fight until there is no fight left. Our country is too precious to give up on. Thanks for all you do.” One message encourages Meadows to throw the Trump administration’s weight behind lawyer Sidney Powell, who briefly led Trump’s pseudo-legal efforts to invalidate the election results. This is significant because Ginni Thomas’s husband Clarence Thomas would be among those ultimately responsible for deciding any legal challenge to the election results in his capacity as a Supreme Court justice. Ginni Thomas wrote: “Sidney Powell & improved coordination now will help the cavalry come and Fraud exposed and America saved [sic].” Another message urges Meadows to read an email she sent to Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, whom she references on a first-name basis as “Jared.” The text messages suggest that many more emails, text messages and other communications regarding the conspiracy exist that have not yet come to light. In one ongoing case, attorney John Eastman, a key figure in the development of Trump’s legal strategy for the coup, who was also a former clerk for Clarence Thomas, is fighting to shield his communications from discovery.
As Trump investigations heat up, signs of desperation emerge - March was not a good month for Donald Trump.Last week alone, Trump got four major pieces of bad news.On March 27, the New York Times reported that investigators were focused on the role of his Dec. 19, 2020, “it will be wild” tweet inviting supporters to the Capitol on Jan. 6. The focus is on the tweet as a call to action to extremist groups.On March 28, a federal court said in an opinion that it was “more likely than not” that Trump committed crimes at the end of his term trying to overturn the election.On March 29, Bob Woodward and Robert Costa reported a seven-hour Jan. 6 gap in Trump’s White House phone log, a gap that covered the entire Jan. 6 siege.On March 30, reports emerged that the Justice Department was expanding its investigation into the role of members of Trump’s circle in planning the Jan. 6 rally and of Trump allies’ connections to the bogus electoral slate certificates that seven states’ Republicans had sent to Congress for the Jan. 6 electoral vote count.So desperate was the former president to change the subject mid-week that he publicly asked one of the world’s “most hated men” — Vladimir Putin — to disclose dirt on Hunter Biden. Following the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s “favorables” in America dropped to 4 percent.Soliciting help from someone whose favorability polls in the range of Charles Manson’s can hardly help one’s o wn political standing.
Trump asks judge to recuse from racketeering suit against Hillary Clinton - Lawyers for former President Donald Trump are asking a federal judge appointed by President Bill Clinton to step aside from a suit Trump filed last month claiming that Hillary Clinton and her political allies engaged in a racketeering conspiracy to falsely accuse Trump of colluding with Russia to gain support in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.Court records show U.S. District Court Judge Donald Middlebrooks was assigned to the suit on March 24, the same day Trump’s attorneys filed the case in the Southern District of Florida, where Trump currently resides.Trump lawyers Alina Habba and Peter Ticktin contend that Middlebrooks could be seen as biased because Bill Clinton chose him for the federal court bench in 1997.“There is no question that Judge’s [sic] Middlebrooks’ impartiality would be questioned by a disinterested observer, fully informed of the facts, due to Judge’s relationship with the Defendant, either, individually, or by the very nature of his appointment to the Federal Bench, by the Defendant’s husband,” Habba and Ticktin wrote in a motion filed on Monday. “The most important issue is not simply that justice must be done, but also that justice must appear to be done. This could not be more important in a case like the above styled cause, where wrongs in regard to a presidential election are to be redressed.”
Trump says he wanted to join supporters on Jan. 6 march to Capitol: report - Former President Trump, in an interview published by The Washington Post on Thursday, said that he wanted to march alongside his supporters during the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol, but the Secret Service would not allow it. Trump told the outlet he wanted to join the rally but was told he couldn’t. “Secret Service said I couldn’t go. I would have gone there in a minute,” Trump said. The former president also praised the organizers of the rally, some of whom are now facing subpoenas over their conduct on Jan. 6, the Post reports. Trump said he did not regret telling his supporters to come to Washington or tweeting that the rally would “be wild!” the day of the riot, notes the Post. According to the publication, Trump remained defensive and stood by his actions on Jan. 6 throughout the interview. “The crowd was far bigger than I even thought. I believe it was the largest crowd I’ve ever spoken to. I don’t know what that means, but you see very few pictures. They don’t want to show pictures, the fake news doesn’t want to show pictures,” Trump said, describing the event. “But this was a tremendous crowd.” The Post reported that advisers to the former president described him as being excited while watching television during the march and the subsequent attack on the Capitol. Eventually, nearly three hours after the attack started, Trump listened to the pleas from family and lawmakers and released a video urging his supporters to go home, the Post reports. Trump told the news outlet that he did not recall getting many phone calls on Jan. 6 and denied removing call logs or using a burner phone that day. White House call logs given to the committee examining the events of Jan. 6 reportedly had a gap of more than 7 hours, according to multiple outlets. Throughout the Washington Post interview, Trump refused to accept blame for the Capitol riot, instead accusing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the mayor of Washington, D.C., of being responsible for the escalation. “I thought it was a shame, and I kept asking, ‘Why isn’t she doing something about it? Why isn’t Nancy Pelosi doing something about it? And the mayor of D.C. also.’ The mayor of D.C. and Nancy Pelosi are in charge,” Trump said.
Letter to SEC: How Stock Buybacks Undermine Investment in Innovation for the Sake of Stock-Price Manipulation- We are writing to comment on Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed rule “Share Repurchase Disclosure Modernization” (SEC Release Nos. 34-93783; IC-34440; File No. S7-21-21), published in the Federal Register of February 15, 2022. This public comment is complementary to William Lazonick, “Investing In Innovation,” an INET Working Paper, also submitted as a public comment under File No. S7-21-21.The proposed rule’s stated purpose is “to modernize and improve disclosure”[1] covering repurchases made by an issuer of its stock. We have been engaged in in-depth scholarly investigation into the stock market’s role in the operation and performance of the U.S. economy in general as well as the circumstances surrounding the adoption and impacts of Rule 10b-18 by the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 17, 1982, in particular. As the result of this research, we have no doubt that the adoption of Rule 10b-18 in 1982 was based on a fundamental misidentification of the primary source of funds for capital formation by publicly listed business corporations in the United States.As we argue in this public comment, Rule 10b-18, as originally written in 1982 and revised by the Commission in 2003, has in fact undermined capital formation by business corporations in the U.S. economy. In giving issuing corporations a safe harbor against stock-price manipulation charges, Rule 10b-18 has enabled them to execute many trillions of dollars in open-market repurchases (OMRs) since the mid-1980s—including an estimated $5.4 trillion by corporations in the S&P 500 Index in the decade 2012-2021 alone. As we outline in this comment, our research demonstrates both theoretically and empirically that Rule 10b-18 has enabled stock-price manipulation while undermining capital formation in the United States. In the process, the Rule has contributed to growing inequality in the distribution of income in the United States, with consequences that are economically destructive, socially dangerous, and morally reprehensible. For these reasons we recommend that the Commission rescind Rule 10b-18.The proposed amendments to Rule 10b-18 contemplated by Share Repurchase Disclosure Modernization (File No. S7-21-21) do not remedy these fundamental problems of Rule 10b-18. The principal change effected by the proposed rule would be to increase the timeliness and specificity of information available to both shareholders and the Commission by requiring that issuing corporations disclose to the Commission by the end of the following business day[2] each day’s: total number of shares repurchased; total number of shares repurchased on the open market; and average price paid per share.[3] Currently, disclosure is required only four times a year, at the end of each quarter, with repurchases reported in totals aggregated by month.
Climate Police Occupy Wall Street - Competitive Enterprise Institute --The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, March 21, released its proposed rule to require every “registrant” (i.e., publicly-traded company) to provide more information about “climate-related risks” that are “reasonably likely to have a material impact” on its business, operations, or financial condition. A registrant must report three main types of information:
- The magnitude and probability of the financial losses it could incur due to the physical impacts of climate change.
- The company’s “transition” and “liability” risks—the financial losses it may incur as climate policies devalue or strand corporate assets and courts compel the firm to pay for climate change damages.
- The company’s “greenhouse gas emissions, which have become a commonly-used metric to assess a registrant’s exposure” to transition and liability risks.
For the vast majority of registrants, the potential material impacts of climate policy and litigation greatly exceed those of climate change. The SEC acknowledges that “many companies have begun to provide some of this information in response to investor demand and in recognition of the potential financial effects of climate-related risks on their businesses.” So, why not just let the market sort things out? Not all shareholders demand climate-related information, and not all who do so seek the same range of information or level of detail.The SEC appears not to tolerate such diversity. Corporate climate risk reports should be “consistent, comparable, and reliable.” To cure what ostensible market failure? Much voluntarily provided information is “outside of Commission filings,” published in “corporate sustainability” reports. What is wrong with that? Such reports are “not subject to the full range of liability and other investor protections that help elicit complete and accurate disclosure by public companies.”The key word is “liability.” The SEC admits that the new rules’ potential costs “include increased litigation risk” (p. 305). The more information registrants are required to provide and certify as accurate and complete, the more opportunities there will be for “stakeholders”—including shareholder activists and state attorneys general—to challenge the company’s estimates, assumptions, models, and data. Climate risk assessments can be quite conjectural, which makes them highly contestable. That increases the risk of “climate-related” litigation.
Joe Manchin opposes SEC climate disclosure rule, says it targets fossil fuel companies - Sen. Joe Manchin said Monday that he is "deeply concerned" about the new climate disclosures proposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In a letter to the SEC, the West Virginia Democrat said that the proposals go against the regulatory body's stated mission, and that such policies will add "undue burdens on companies," especially in the fossil fuel industry. "The most concerning piece of the proposed rule is what appears to be the targeting of our nation's fossil fuel companies," he wrote. The SEC announced the proposed rules around climate disclosures on March 21. Companies would be required to report on greenhouse gas emissions, climate-related targets and goals, as well as how climate risks impact their business. Manchin said the proposed changes are unnecessary for several reasons, including that nearly two-thirds of companies in the Russell 1000 index release sustainability reports. But these reports differ widely across companies. At present, companies can largely choose what information is reported and how it's reported. Climate data can also be challenging to collect and verify. "To suggest that any and all public companies have the resources and capabilities to capture this data is shortsighted," the letter reads. Manchin said forcing such requirements on companies could impose "undue financial hardships" and also erode public trust. Manchin is among the most conservative Democrats in the Senate and has opposed key policy proposals favored by Democrats, including President Joe Biden's Bill Back Better Bill. He has financial ties to the coal industry, and receives regular donations from fossil fuel executives, including Ryan Lance of ConocoPhillips and Vicki Hollub of Occidental. Manchin said the SEC's proposed rules "seemingly politicize a process aimed at assessing the financial health and compliance of a public company." He pointed specifically to requirements around disclosure of Scope 3 emissions,. which are indirect emissions from a company's supply chain. These emissions can be especially difficult to track.
In a Six-Day Span in March 2020, the Dow Crashed 5,676 Points; the Fed Responded with Almost $1 Trillion in Repo Loans to 24 Trading Houses By Pam Martens and Russ Martens:The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, has a “dual mandate” to target inflation and to maintain “maximum sustainable employment.” The Fed has zero mandate to target a specified level for the Dow Jones Industrial Average or to prevent stock market crashes by printing money out of thin air and pumping it out to the trading houses on Wall Street.But under Fed Chair Ben Bernanke during the Wall Street crisis in 2008 and Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2019-2020, that’s exactly what the Fed decided to do.The majority of the stock market is owned by the wealthiest 10 percent of Americans. Thus, when the stock market is bailed out by the Fed, which we can now show overtly occurred from March 9 through March 16 of 2020, the Fed is effectively bailing out the rich.The Fed began its emergency repo loan operations on September 17, 2019 – months before there was a reported case of COVID-19 anywhere in the world. It was the first time the Fed had intervened with emergency repo loans since the financial crisis of 2008. The Fed’s repo loans continued throughout the fall of 2019 and into 2020. By Monday morning, March 9, 2020, news of the coronavirus was making headlines around the world and rattling stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) plunged 2,013.76 points that day. The Fed responded with one repo loan operation that day of $112.932 billion, which it pumped into 24 trading houses on Wall Street – its so-called “primary dealers.”The Fed had calmed the market for the time being and on Tuesday, March 10, 2020, the Dow gained 1,167.14 points. (We can assume that the gain was aided by the fact that the Fed on March 10 had conducted two repo loan operations, pumping in a total of $168.625 billion.)But panic set in again on Wednesday, March 11, 2020, with the Dow losing 1,464.94 points, despite the Fed conducting a one-day repo loan operation of $132.375 billion. The Fed interpreted that to mean that the Wall Street trading houses were thumbing their noses at short-term loans and wanted longer-term loans from the Fed. It would fulfill their wishes the very next day in a big way.By early Thursday morning, March 12, a new panic had set in. Before the stock market opened at 9:30 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 futures had plunged 5 percent and were locked, limit-down. That led to a plunge of 7 percent in the S&P 500 Index shortly after the stock market opened at 9:30 a.m. in New York. That plunge triggered a circuit breaker which suspended trading for 15 minutes until 9:50 a.m. By the time the dust settled at the closing bell, the Dow had lost 2,352.60 points.But now that we know the details of what the Fed did on March 12, it’s fair to question if the stock market could have lost 10,000 points that day but for the actions of the Fed.
New Data Shows Fed Chair Powell Misled Congress on the Condition of the Megabanks and their Need for Emergency Loans - By Pam Martens - Throughout 2020, Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly testified to Congress that the banks in the U.S. had proven to be a “source of strength” during the pandemic. Last Thursday the Fed released the names of the banks and dollar amounts they had needed to borrow under some of the Fed’s emergency loan operations. The data showed that units of two of the largest depository banks in the country, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, had required vast sums from the Fed’s emergency repo loan operations as well as its Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). In the Fed’s first report to Congress on its Primary Dealer Credit Facility which provided a dollar amount outstanding, the Fed reported that “the total outstanding amount” as of April 14, 2020 was $34.5 billion. The PDCF was announced on March 17, 2020 and began making loans on March 20, 2020. Last Thursday the Fed released the names of the trading houses that received these loans at the miniscule loan rate of 0.25 percent. It showed that at the end of the first 11 business days of operation, on April 3, 2020, the Fed had an outstanding balance in the PDCF of $49.5 billion and the trading unit of the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, which perpetually brags about its “fortress balance sheet,” had needed to borrow $14 billion of that $49.5 billion or 28 percent of the total. By publicly reporting the smaller balance of $34.5 billion outstanding on April 14 but never reporting the $49.5 billion outstanding as of April 3, it would appear that the Fed intentionally set out to mislead Congress. Not only did the Fed not report the larger amount of $49.5 billion to Congress but it withheld it from its weekly H.4.1 balance sheet statements as well. Why hide the Primary Dealer Credit Facility information from Congress and the public? Because the trading units of JPMorgan and Citigroup were also borrowing vast sums of money from the Fed’s repo loan operations at the same time they were borrowing billions from the PDCF. This would have been a big embarrassment for Jerome Powell and his quest for a second term as Fed Chair because the Fed is supposed to be “supervising” these two banks. Another major embarrassment for Jerome Powell is that when the emergency repo loan operations began on September 17, 2019 – months before there was any reported case of COVID-19 anywhere in the world – the Fed reported that the emergency repo loans were needed because U.S. corporations had withdrawn large amounts from the banks in order to make their quarterly federal tax payments and that had created a liquidity gap in the financial system. But when Wall Street On Parade analyzed the transaction data that the Fed released after a two-year lag for its repo loans made in the last quarter of 2019, it showed that three of the six largest borrowers from the Fed’s emergency repo loan operations were the trading units of foreign global banks: Nomura (Japanese), Barclays (U.K.) and Deutsche Bank (German). (See our report here.) Does anyone really believe U.S. corporations were putting any serious amount of their corporate tax payments in foreign banks? Something very similar, and as yet unexplained, occurred with the Primary Dealer Credit Facility. As the chart below shows, looking beyond the first 11 days of the Primary Dealer Credit Facility to the full life of the program from March 20, 2020 through May 12, 2021, three trading units of foreign banks received 45 percent of the total for all 16 trading houses that participated. Those three firms were BNP Paribas Securities, which received $1.02 trillion; Deutsche Bank Securities at $940.3 billion; and RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) Capital Markets at $633 billion for a total of $2.59 trillion of the total $5.78 trillion loaned over the life of the program. These are the cumulative totals of loans made by the New York Fed to the firms under the PDCF, adjusted for the terms of the loans.
Q1 2022 Update: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 54 Institutions - The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public. CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through March 31, 2022. Since the last update at the end of December 2021, the list decreased by three to 54 institutions after two additions and five removals. Assets increased by $4.3 billion to $60.9 billion, with the change primarily resulting from a $4.1 billion increase from updated asset figures through December 31, 2021. A year ago, the list held 65 institutions with assets of $48.6 billion. […] With the conclusion of the fourth quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,783 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 3.0 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,729 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,022 action terminations, 411 failures, 278 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23.1 percent of the 1,783 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list. On March 1, 2021, the FDIC released fourth quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. While FDIC did not make a comment within its press release on the Official Problem Bank List, they provided details in an attachment that listed 44 institutions with assets of $170 billion, which was a material increase in assets from the $51 billion of assets listed in the preceding disclosure. The last time the Official Problem Bank List had assets this high was $174 billion as of September 30, 2013. Given the decline in the number of institutions from last quarter, there is speculation as to what institution with assets of about $125 billion was added to the list during the quarter. At year-end 2021, there are six insured institutions with assets ranging from $115 billion to $130 billion. While one these could have caused the large asset jump, there could have been a large removal to mask the identity of the addition. There are stories, perhaps urban myths, of the list being manipulated during the early 1990s to obfuscate the addition of a money center bank to the list. On March 10, 2022, the American Banker published an article on the mystery of the large jump in assets.
Jamie Dimon warns that JPMorgan faces a $1 billion loss from its Russia exposure - Jamie Dimon has warned that JPMorgan faces a loss of around $1 billion from its exposure to Russia, as global financial institutions feel the impact of the war in Ukraine."We are not worried about our direct exposure to Russia, though we could still lose about $1 billion over time," Dimon wrote in his closely watched annual letter to shareholders on Monday."We are actively monitoring the impact of ongoing sanctions and Russia's response, concerned as well about their secondary and collateral effects on so many companies and countries."JPMorgan earned a record $48.3 billion of profit on revenue of $125.3 billion in 2021.Dimon, who has been JPMorgan's CEO since 2005, said the bank expects the war in Ukraine to slow global growth relatively sharply. He added that the situation is highly uncertain and could easily get worse.JPMorgan said last month that it was withdrawing from Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine ordered by President Vladimir Putin. The bank said at the time it had fewer than 200 employees in the country.However, it's been playing a key role in ensuring foreign bondholders receive their payments on Russian sovereign debt, as the country's foreign correspondent bank. The lender has been seeking US Treasury approval for all payments.Dimon said the bank has also been undertaking complex work to comply with the new rules on Russia."This entails sanctioning individuals, including their ownership of assets and companies; reducing exposures across multiple products and services; analyzing and stopping billions of dollars of payments as directed by governments; and many other actions," he said.Dimon did not go into any more detail about where exactly the losses would come from, or over what time frame they might materialize. But Russian assets have fallen dramatically in price, while many markets have been effectively frozen.
JPMorgan Chase must defend itself over unwanted spam calls JPMorgan Chase will have to face claims that it made more than 160 unwanted calls to a Chase cardholder in violation of federal law, a federal judge in Pennsylvania said. Christina Swartz sued under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act after she allegedly received scores of calls from the bank, with at least 15 of them utilizing an automated voice. Chase argued that Swartz’s claims failed because she expressly consented to receive calls from Chase when she applied for a credit card. But Judge Jennifer P. Wilson of the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania refused to dismiss the suit Thursday.
Large regional banks are at risk of becoming the next too big to fail firms, Hsu says - Large regional banks could become the country’s next too big to fail firms, acting Comptroller Michael Hsu said, and the agency is looking at ways of incorporating resolvability into its bank merger review process. Bank merger policy has become a hot-button financial regulation issue after it sparked the power struggle on the board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. late last year. While Hsu has supported moving forward on bank merger issues in his capacity on the FDIC board, he’s been more quiet than fellow Democrats Martin Gruenberg, who now leads the FDIC, and Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The OCC plays a critical role in overseeing mergers among larger banks. Hsu’s remarks, given at the Wharton Financial Regulation Conference on Friday, outline his concerns on bank mergers largely in the context of what he says could be a threat to financial stability. His comments signal a tougher time for banks going through the merger review process, said Bao Nguyen, a partner at Skadden's Financial Institutions Regulation and Enforcement Group.
Brown calls on Fed, OCC to join FDIC on merger reform — The chair of the Senate Banking Committee called on the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to “review and reconsider” the approach they take to approving large bank mergers, urging the regulators to join a reform effort already underway at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Writing to Federal Reserve Chair Pro Tempore Jerome Powell and acting Comptroller Michael Hsu, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, asked the prudential regulators to “adopt a posture toward bank merger reviews that prioritizes competition, financial stability, and the needs of working families and small businesses,” according to a copy of the letter obtained by American Banker. “At its core, consolidation hurts consumers. In the aftermath of a merger, the rates banks pay depositors go down, while the rates and fees banks charge borrowers go up,” Brown wrote in the April 6 letter. “Bank branches invariably close, making it harder for consumers to access financial services in their neighborhoods.”
Ex-Goldman banker Jiampietro banned for life by the Fed --The Federal Reserve permanently banned a former Goldman Sachs Group managing director from the financial industry for improperly using and disclosing the regulator’s bank-supervision information.Joseph Jiampietro agreed to the ban without admitting or denying the allegations, the central bank said in a statement. The information at issue includes bank-examination reports and other confidential documents.The ban stems from a case the Fed brought against Jiampietro in 2016, alleging the former investment banker who also previously worked at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., used the confidential information in his job at Goldman Sachs. That year, the New York-based bank agreed to pay $36.3 million to settle allegations related to matter.
Fed bans six individuals from banking for CARES Act fraud -The Federal Reserve Board has barred six former bank employees from the banking industry for bilking pandemic relief funds. The Fed handed down permanent bans to former Merrill Lynch employees Autumn Jordan and Manuel F. Pinazo, as well as former Regions Bank employees Dedryck O. Carson, Wendy Rodriguez Legon, Michael T. Lemley and Tracy L. Mallory for pocketing loans from the Small Business Administration. The enforcement actions come as the Fed and other government agencies seek to crack down on fraud stemming from the various stimulus programs created by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act and punish bad actors.
BankThink: Regulators must stop stifling minority and rural mutual banks, writes Douglas P. Faucette | American Banker Mutual minority and rural depository institutions, or MDIs and RDIs, historically have been the lifeblood of rural and minority communities. At a time when leaders are calling for more engagement by traditional institutions with rural and minority communities, promoting community development financial institutions and various other government-sponsored and government-subsidized intermediaries, the organization of mutual banking institutions has ceased. No new mutual banks have been chartered for over a half a century. Effectively, the federal government has abandoned its mandate to charter and insure the deposits of de novo mutuals. This has created a void in banking services in many of the communities that need them the most.
BankThink: Credit unions’ tax-subsidized bank purchases harm consumers | American Banker -- Credit union lobbyists, unsurprisingly, like the idea of credit unions leveraging their tax exemption to acquire community banks, but these taxpayer-subsidized transactions nevertheless have a demonstrably negative impact on local communities. Because this trend expands the segment of the financial services sector exempt from taxation and key regulatory oversight while diminishing access to financial services, several states have acted to restrict these acquisitions. It’s past time for Congress to investigate at the federal level.While credit union lobbyists plead innocence due to branch closures—most of which, by the way, are occurring at the largest banks—credit unions are in fact exacerbating consolidation among locally based community banks. The ugly truth is that this phenomenon involves larger credit unions using their tax subsidy to make inflated purchase offers of smaller, healthy institutions.
Democratic state AGs call on four big banks to eliminate overdraft fees -More than a dozen Democratic attorneys general called on four major banks to scrap overdraft fees, saying they should join a small number of competitors by eliminating the “harmful junk fees.” The letters to JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp are the latest example of government pressure on overdraft fees — though this time the pressure is coming from individual states, rather than Biden administration regulators. In the past year, all four of the four banks that were targeted Wednesday have announced changes to their overdraft programs, which will likely substantially reduce revenues they get from the often-criticized charges.
Fifth Third to end fees on purchases rejected for insufficient funds - Fifth Third Bancorp is the latest bank to announce plans to eliminate fees that retail customers incur when their purchases get declined over a lack of money in their accounts. The Cincinnati bank will continue to charge overdraft fees of $37, which apply to customers who opt to have their transactions processed despite a lack of available funds. But Fifth Third is joining other large and regional banks in scrapping nonsufficient-funds fees — a move that the company said is part of a continuing effort to “reduce punitive fees” and “focus on the best outcomes for customers.” The $211 billion-asset bank plans to stop charging the fees on June 23.
FiVerity, Grasshopper Bank look to outsmart con artists --Mike Butler, the CEO of Grasshopper Bank, likens the role of banks in fraud detection to the role of bouncers at bars. Smart bouncers know a fake ID when they see one, but the ones who don’t care let underage teens drink anyway, Butler said. Whether a business is illegally letting adolescents drink or letting fraudsters open bank accounts, the consequences can be major. Butler recently announced that the Boston-based fintech FiVerity and its CEO, Greg Woolf, is among the partners he has selected — a bouncer of sorts — for fraud prevention services at his digital bank for small businesses.
Fake bank records are readily available as U.S. hunts for fraud - For anyone who wants a phony pay stub or doctored tax return, an easy source is just a click away. A website called banknovelties.com claims it can provide “fake bank statements” as well as “fake pay stubs,” “fake utility bills” and “fake US tax returns (1040).” They’re readily available for as low as $50 each. It may seem like a joke. But as the U.S. government pursues billions of dollars in fraud tied to Congress’s pandemic-relief measures, a common thread has emerged: The people who stole taxpayer money did it using bogus documents. And those are easily obtained on websites that are fully functional across the internet.
How government benefits programs became a nightmare for banks -For nearly a decade, citizens of almost all 50 states could get unemployment benefits loaded on a prepaid debit card. But not anymore. In late December, the state of Illinois went back to cutting paper checks for jobless benefits instead of loading funds onto prepaid cards. Jobless claimants who had prepaid cards were forced to switch to direct deposit or paper checks after KeyBank, a unit of the $186.3 billion-asset KeyCorp in Cleveland, decided to stop providing prepaid cards for jobless benefits in the state. Last year Maryland gave its public beneficiaries the same choice after the $2.2 trillion-asset Bank of America, of Charlotte, North Carolina, elected not to renew its contract to issue benefits on prepaid cards. KeyBank and BofA declined to comment for this story.
Banks change their tack in navigating the culture war — After years of mounting concern over the politicization of American finance, the banking industry appears to be making a quiet retreat from the culture war trenches. Not historically known for their social activism, prominent bankers had grown more comfortable taking political stands over the past decade. Since the mid-2010s, banks and their CEOs have waded into several high-profile political fights, ranging from firearm financing to immigration policy and climate change. But today, as several states pursue laws that will limit or ban medical procedures for womenand the transgender community, crack down on classroom discussion of “woke” topics likeracism and sexuality, and enact new restrictions of voting rights, few banks or bank advocates have had anything to say.
FDIC says banks pursuing crypto projects should check in with them first - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is telling its banks to check in with the agency if it’s currently or planning on pursuing any cryptocurrency-related activities.The FDIC’s guidance letter follows similar instructions from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which instructed banks in November that want to offer custody services or engage in other crypto-related activities to get the approval of their local OCC supervisory office. Both sets of guidelines emphasized the potential risks of cryptocurrency, especially as banks are increasingly getting into digital assets.“With both documents right now, the agencies are saying we’re not going to stop banks from engaging in banks involving crypto,” said Todd Phillips, director of financial regulation and corporate governance at the Center for American Progress. “We just want to be told about it in advance so we can understand the risks that banks are facing and evaluate and understand whether the activities have implications for the bank's safety and soundness.”
Yellen calls for ‘comprehensive’ crypto regulations -— Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen outlined the Treasury Department’s approach to regulating digital assets, marking the first time she’s substantially laid out her thoughts on the issue since President Biden’s executive order last month. Yellen’s remarks, delivered at American University Thursday morning, largely reflected the priorities previously laid out by the Biden administration. She called for a “comprehensive” regulatory regime developed around potential risks posed by cryptocurrency and certain activities, not the technology itself. “Our regulatory frameworks should be designed to support responsible innovation while managing risks — especially those that could disrupt the financial system and economy,” she said.
OCC's Hsu pushes for banklike stablecoin regulation — Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu pressed for a banklike stablecoin regulation in a recent speech, adding another voice to the argument that some Biden administration officials have been making for months. Hsu’s remarks, made Friday morning in a panel with Georgetown University law professor Chris Brummer, echo those of Treasury officials, such as Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang, and the findings of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets.The acting comptroller pushed back against suggestions that stablecoins could be regulated as money market funds, largely via public disclosures. Hsu said that public disclosures are limited in their ability to prevent a run, which has been cited as a risk of stablecoins by Hsu, and on Thursday by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Stablecoin issuer Circle leads U.K. charm offensive ahead of new rules -- Circle Internet Financial has conducted a number of “state visits” to the U.K. in the last year, flying over its most senior executives to engage with government, regulators and industry bodies with a view to expanding its business in the region. The Boston-based payments and financial infrastructure company behind the USDC stablecoin has held both virtual and in-person meetings with a range of U.K. officials and crypto industry executives, some of which included a delegation of the company’s top brass. The latest trip to London was as recent as last month, while another occurred during the relaxed travel period between the delta and omicron COVID-19 variants last year. Dante Disparte, Circle’s chief strategy officer, said in an interview that the closely held firm had sought to take advantage of a shift in attitudes toward cryptoassets and payments innovation provided by stablecoins, where Circle’s work had been “well-received.”
Toomey unveils stablecoin bill granting OCC authority for payments charter -- — The top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee unveiled legislation that would create a new federal license for stablecoin issuers and set baseline standards for consumer protection. Introduced by Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., on Wednesday as a discussion draft, the Stablecoin Transparency of Reserves and Uniform Safe Transactions (TRUST) Act would allow stablecoin issuers to choose from one of three regulatory regimes, including one novel approach that would authorize the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to charter a “national limited payment stablecoin issuer.” In a press release, Toomey said he believed that stablecoins would soon “be widely used in the physical economy. They have the potential, among other things, to speed up payments and automate transactions.” “The proposed regulatory framework I’m releasing today will allow this crypto-innovation to continue flourishing while protecting consumers and minimizing potential risks from stablecoins to the financial system,” Toomey said.
Another regulator moves to crypto world as JST hires from New York Fed - Yet another regulator is heading off to join the crypto world. Martin Grant, who served as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s chief compliance and ethics officer for more than 15 years, has joined JST Capital, a financial services firm for digital assets. Grant, who spent more than three decades at the New York Fed, will head regulatory affairs for JST, the company said in a statement. His role will be to navigate the changing regulatory environment, JST said.
After Having Blown $31 Billion on Share Buybacks to Prop Up its Shares, Starbucks Ends Them, to Invest in “Our People and Our Stores.” The New Old CEO Gets It. Shares Tank By Wolf Richter - On his first day as the new old interim CEO of Starbucks, which has been in the news for a series of successful union votes by frustrated employees, Howard Schultz told employees in a letter this morning that the company would end its share buyback program. “This decision will allow us to invest more profit into our people and our stores – the only way to create long-term value for our stakeholders,” he wrote on his first day back in the job.This follows a huge share buyback binge initiated in October by the now departed CEO Kevin Johnson, who’d had this job since 2017. In October, the company announced that it would pay $20 billion in share buybacks and dividends. It promptly blew, wasted, and incinerated $3.5 billion in cash on buying back its own shares in Q4, according to its 10-Q filing. Since 2005, Starbucks has blown, wasted, and incinerated $30.8 billion on share buybacks, most of it ($22 billion) since 2017 under Kevin Johnson (data via YCharts). With the buybacks, the company also hid the dilutive effects of shares issued to executives and others as part of the company’s stock-based compensation plans. Distributing a portion of its profits to its shareholders in form of dividends is what a company is supposed to do. In Q4, Starbucks paid $576 million in dividends, and that was rich, given that it only had net income of $816 million. But ok.But this came on top of the $3.5 billion it blew, wasted, and incinerated on share buybacks in Q4. The share buybacks were used to prop up the share price, given the lacking performance of the company’s operations. Those share buybacks were funded with borrowed money. Over the years, these share buybacks, funded at least partially with borrowed money, left the company with more liabilities than assets: In Q4, the company’s negative shareholder equity worsened to $8.5 billion (“shareholders’ deficit,” as the company calls it). Share buybacks have gutted the company financially.Share buybacks were considered illegal market manipulation until 1982, when the SEC issued Rule 10b-18 which provided corporations a “safe harbor” to buy back their own shares. And since then, companies have blown, wasted, and incinerated huge and ballooning amounts of cash – often borrowed cash – with the sole purpose of manipulating up the price of their shares.Think of all the things Starbucks could have done since 2017 with the $22 billion in cash it blew, wasted, and incinerated on share buybacks. Two of the things it could have done were pointed out by the new old CEO Schultz today: take better care of its employees and stores.
After Robinhood Shares Collapsed 87% from Peak and 70% from IPO, Goldman Sachs, IPO Lead Underwriter, Cuts Stock to “Sell” - by Wolf Richter -- Back in December 2020, Robinhood Markets selected Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan as the lead underwriters for its IPO. Then on August 3, 2021, just eight months ago, Robinhood went public at an IPO price of $38 a share, giving the company a valuation of $32 billion, amid enormous hoopla. The lead underwriter’s job is to create this hoopla and create demand for the shares at ridiculous valuations, and they did a great job at that. It came amid the meme-stock trading mania that Robinhood catered to, and crypto trading that Robinhood was getting into.But on the first day of trading, July 29, 2021, shares closed below the IPO price. Over the next few days, the stock meandered higher, and on August 4, it spiked for a moment in an incredible meme-stock paroxysm to $80 a share, and that was it.The collapse of the share price over those eight months has been spectacular, right there with the collapse of the EV SPACS and other creatures of our time. The shares are now down 87% from the high and are down 70% from the IPO price (data via YCharts): And this is the moment, after the stock collapsed by 87% from its high and mauled nearly every retail investor that touched these misbegotten shares since August 3, that Goldman Sachs with its usual impeccable timing cut its rating to “sell” from “neutral” and cut the price target to $13 a share.Goldman analyst William Nance cited the “fading retail engagement” and ongoing weakness in account growth and fading hopes for profitability.In 2021, Robinhood had a net loss of $3.7 billion, on $1.8 billion in revenues. Which was fascinating – how a brokerage platform could generate such huge losses of twice its revenues during some of the craziest stock and crypto trading ever.Robinhood is unlikely to become profitable in 2023, based on current trends and headwinds, Nance said. “We believe this lack of clarity around the path to profitability will prevent the stock from re-rating higher.” A “key requirement” for the shares to re-rate higher, such as an upgrade to neutral, or whatever, Goldman would need to “see an acceleration in user growth.”So user growth is “depressed,” and it could take longer to get to profitability, if ever, and that’s suddenly the problem for Goldman, not the $3.7 billion loss last year, or the ridiculously high pump-and-dump IPO price just eight months ago.
Profiting off of the pandemic, CEO pay increased to record levels in 2021 while workers’ wages fell --In the second year of the pandemic, the chief executives of the top US corporations are on track to set new compensation records while the wages of their workers were reduced. This is the conclusion drawn by several analyses of pay data submitted by a group of S&P 500 corporations to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of their annual filing requirements. On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported that median pay for CEOs rose to $14.2 million last year, up from a record $13.4 million in 2020. The report said that half of the companies reported median wages for their workers increased in 2021 by 3.1 percent. However, this is less than half of last year’s inflation rate of 6.7 percent, and it means that these workers took an effective paycut. The Journal report noted, “Most CEOs received a pay increase of 11 percent or more, and pay rose by at least 25 percent for nearly one-third of them.” It also reported that for one-third of the companies, median employee pay declined last year. These figures are based on a review by the Journal of “pay data for more than half the index from MyLogIQ LLC.” MyLogIQ is a provider of SEC compliance services and has access to the government agency public filings database. The CEOs of nearly half the companies reporting were paid 186 times that of median workers in 2021. The Journal report says, “That is up from 166 times in the year before the pandemic and 156 times in 2018, the first year that nearly all S&P 500 companies reported median employee pay.” The compensation data is provided to the SEC by the corporations as part of the disclosures mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 which was passed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis sparked by the collapse of the mortgage-backed securities markets on Wall Street. The CEO compensation figures include the value of stock awards along with salary, cash bonuses, perks and retirement benefits. The Journal’s report goes on to air the complaints of business executives that the pay ratio data is a “blunt instrument that offers little meaningful insight.” The corporate representatives also criticize the reporting requirements because the SEC rules “give companies significant leeway on how they rank workers globally to identify the median employee,” and the pay for median workers is determined “using the same rules that govern reported CEO pay.” Also on Sunday, the Financial Times (FT) reported that the pay data is “raising the prospect of fresh clashes with investors and employees as the gap between their earnings and those of their staff widens to a historic multiple in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.” The FT’s analysis—based on information from the data company Equilar—said that CEO pay ratio shot up to 245 times that of a median employee in 2021 compared to 192 times in 2020, the largest one-year increase since the start of the disclosures in 2018. The report attributed the record gap to the stock market rally that “delivered far larger windfalls to bosses than to their employees.” The FT also pointed out that the jump in CEO compensation was the result of bonuses that were paused or cut in 2020 during the pandemic. This makes clear that the reductions in executive compensation during the initial economic shocks of the coronavirus were little more than public relations window dressing as workers were suffering widespread unemployment and expanding poverty, as well as sickness and death from COVID-19.
Elon Musk Becomes Twitter's Biggest Shareholder - Elon Musk has taken a 9.2% stake in Twitter Inc. to become the platform’s biggest shareholder, a week after hinting he might shake up the social media industry.Twitter shares surged about 26% in premarket trading after the regulatory filing released Monday detailing Musk buying the holding. The stake is worth about $2.89 billion, based on Friday’s market close. Musk, 50, polled his more than 80 million followers on Twitter last month, asking them whether the company adheres to the principles of free speech. After more than 70% said no, he asked whether a new platform was needed and said he was giving serious thought to starting his own. Musk has been one of the biggest personalities on Twitter and has regularly run into trouble on the platform. The Tesla Inc. chief executive officer iscurrently seeking to exit a 2018 deal with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that put controls in place related to his tweeting about the electric-car maker.
CFPB says payday lenders steer customers from no-cost payment plans -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has set its sights on payday lenders who steer borrowers into costly rollovers rather than no-fee alternatives. In a report released Wednesday, the CFPB said its research suggests that payday lenders are engaging in “deceptive" practices by driving borrowers to repeatedly roll over their loans, which comes with a cost, rather than providing a no-cost extended payment plan. The CFPB said payday lenders profit from keeping borrowers in the dark about such plans, which 16 states either allow or require the industry to offer.
Fannie Mae chair Sheila Bair leads trio of departures from the GSE's board - Three members of Fannie Mae’s board of directors will depart the government-sponsored enterprise next month. Chair Sheila Bair announced Friday that she will resign from the mortgage company’s board effective May 1. Chief executive Hugh Frater and board member Antony Jenkins also said they will be departing the firm. Bair, who joined Fannie Mae in 2019 and became the first woman to helm its board of directors in 2020, will be replaced by Michael Hied, a former executive in Wells Fargo & Company’s home loan division.
Federal Home Loan banks' purpose called into question as advances drop --As banks rack up record levels of deposits, the Federal Home Loan banks' core business of providing liquidity to member institutions is drying up, leading some critics to question the institutions' long-term viability. The lifeblood of the Home Loan banks — advances to banks, credit unions and insurance companies — plummeted 20% last year to $350 billion, its lowest level in 15 years. The Home Loan banks say the decline is part of the normal ebb and flow of the market. But the dramatic drop in advances over many years has renewed calls by critics and a handful of insiders for the creation of an independent advisory committee to scrutinize the 11 Home Loan banks' purpose and relevance.
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for February --Bill McBride -Black Knight publishes a monthly Mortgage Monitor report that contains interesting information on the mortgage market and housing. Press Release: Black Knight: Despite Rising Interest Rates, Annual Home Price Growth Hits All-Time High of 19.6% in February, Driving Affordability to Lowest Level in 15 Years This month’s report examines the continuation of record-breaking home price growth – even with interest rates rising sharply – and the mounting affordability pressures resulting from these competing dynamics. “Home prices grew by 1.84% in February – nearly four times the 25-year average for the month – and they did so while interest rates continued to climb throughout the month,” . “The month’s 19.6% year-over-year growth marked the highest annual rate of appreciation on record, with the average home having now increased in value by more than 34% since February 2020, just prior to the pandemic. After a brief cooling last fall, appreciation has been reaccelerating for the last four months. And that is all while interest rates climbed nearly one-third of a percent in February and are now up more than 1.25% since the start of the year. “This combination of accelerating growth and sharply rising interest rates has resulted in the tightest affordability in 15 years. In fact, outside of the skewed 2004-2007 market, the 29.1% of median income now required to make the P&I payment on the average-priced home bought with 20% down is the highest share in 25 years. Entering the year, a prospective homebuyer who could budget a $1,700 monthly P&I payment – roughly the amount required to buy the average home today, excluding taxes and insurance – could afford a $497,000 house. With Freddie Mac reporting the average 30-year rate at 4.42% on March 24, that same borrower can now afford less than $425,000. The average P&I payment has increased 24%, or approximately $329 per month, while at the same time, the average homebuyer’s buying power has dropped by 15%. Here is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight. Overall delinquencies are very low.
- • Mortgage delinquencies rose for the first time in nine months, driven by a rise in early-stage delinquencies
- • Despite edging higher in February, at 3.36%, the national delinquency rate is trending toward pre-pandemic levels and remains very near the record low set in January 2020
- • Early-stage delinquencies (30- to 60-days past due) rose 97K, but nevertheless remain 25% below pre-pandemic levels
The second graph shows Black Knight’s estimate monthly house price increases compared to the average monthly price increases over the previous 25 years. Price increases so far in 2022 have been extremely high. […]There is much more in the mortgage monitor.
Rents Still Increasing Sharply Year-over-year - From ApartmentList.com: Apartment List National Rent Report: Rent growth is continuing to pick up steam again, after a brief winter cooldown, with our national index up by 0.8 percent over the course of March. So far this year, rents are growing more slowly than they did in 2021, but faster than the growth we observed in the years immediately preceding the pandemic. Year-over-year rent growth currently stands at a staggering 17.1 percent, but most of that growth took place last spring and summer. Over the first three months of 2022, rents have increased by a total of 1.8 percent, but we’re just beginning to enter the busy season for the rental market, when the bulk of annual rent growth typically occurs.On the supply side, our national vacancy index is continuing to slowly inch up, indicating a gradual easing of the tight market conditions that have characterized the rental market over the past year. Our vacancy index hit 4.6 percent this month, continuing a seven month streak of increases after bottoming out at 3.8 percent last August. Rents increased this month in 93 of the nation’s 100 largest cities, with Sun Belt markets in Florida and Arizona continuing to see some of the nation’s fastest growth.Our national rent index closed out 2021 with a 0.2 percent month-over-month decline, making December the only month last year in which rents fell. That price dip proved to be short lived, however, with rent growth returning to positive territory over the past three months. Our national rent index increased by 0.8 percent month-over-month in March. This is a bit slower than the 1.3 percent increase that we saw last March, when the 2021 rent growth boom was just starting to pick up steam. It’s also well below the 2.3 percent average monthly rent growth that we saw from last April through September. But even if growth has cooled down substantially from last summer’s peak, it is also pacing well ahead of the pre-pandemic norm for this time of year. In the first three months of 2022, rents nationally have increased by a total of 1.8 percent, which is twice as fast as the growth that we saw over the same period in 2018 (0.9 percent) and 2019 (0.8 percent). Rents are still increasing, but not as quickly as a year ago. There is some positive news on the supply side, from rental housing economist Jay Parsons on Twitter: Rent growth isn't popular of course, but here's one benefit: LOTS of new apartment construction to meet the tidal wave of demand, and hopefully boost vacancy / availability. New completions will top 400k units for the first time in 40+ years in 2022 -- and even more in '23.I’m going to update some of the data on rents. Here is a graph of several measures of rent since 2000: OER, rent of shelter, rent of primary residence, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), and ApartmentList.com. (All set to 100 in January 2017)OER, rent of shelter, and rent of primary residence have mostly moved together. The Zillow index started in 2014, and the ApartmentList index started in 2017. Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through February 2022 (Apartment List through March 2022). Note that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady. Then new leases took off, and the BLS measures are picking up.
CoreLogic: House Prices up 20% YoY in February -- The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Growth Again Hits New High in February, CoreLogic Reports: CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for February 2022. U.S. home price growth registered a year-over-year increase of 20% in February, another series high and marking 12 months of consecutive double-digit gains. Annual price growth has been recorded every month for the past decade. While prospective buyers outnumber sellers, a record-low number of homes for sale remains the primary culprit for the rapid price gains. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows national year-over-year appreciation slowing to 5% by February 2023, as rising interest rates are expected to sideline even more buyers. "New listings have not kept up with the large number of families looking to buy, leading to homes selling quickly and often above list price,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “This imbalance between an insufficient number of owners looking to sell relative to buyers searching for a home has led to the record appreciation of the past 12 months. Higher prices and mortgage rates erode buyer affordability and should dampen demand in coming months, leading to the moderation in price growth in our forecast.”... Nationally, home prices increased 20% in February 2022, compared to February 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 2.2% compared to January 2022. ... Home price gains are projected to slow to 5% by February 2023. At the state level, warmer regions of the U.S. continued to show the largest increases, with Florida showing the country’s strongest price growth at 29.1%. Arizona ranked a close second with 28.6% growth, while Nevada was third, at 25.8% annual appreciation.
Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: February similar to January Year-over-year --The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released this week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow Research: January 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Competitive Conditions: Though home sales have remained at elevated levels, rising mortgage rates, rapidly increasing home values, and fierce competition for listings may have some potential buyers rethinking whether they’re going to take the plunge into the market. Looking to the monhs ahead, competition between buyers will be intense. Homes that went pending this winter typically did so in less than two weeks, an unseasonably fast pace. For those hoping there would be a big enough wave of sellers listing their homes this spring to ease some of the most competitive conditions we’ve ever seen, there’s no sign yet of that being the case. New listings are coming onto the market below levels we’ve seen in the weeks leading up to the shopping season of years past. In the short term, it all adds up to what is looking to be another few months of a history-making for-sale market. Annual growth in February as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate slightly in the 10-city index and remain unchanged in the national and 20-city indices. Monthly growth in February is expected to decelerate from January in the national and 10-city indices, and hold steady in the 20-city index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, April 26. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 19.2% in February, unchanged from 19.2% in January.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through April 4th. Lumber was at $962 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 5% from $1,013 a year ago - but up more than triple from $311 two years ago.There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May (although it seems likely lumber prices peaked earlier this year). A combination of strong demand and various supply constraints have kept lumber prices high and volatile.
Building near deadly Surfside condo collapse ordered evacuated --A North Miami Beach, Fla., apartment complex near the Surfside condo building that collapsed last year was evacuated after engineers determined that the structure was not safe. On Monday, the city of North Miami Beach received a letter from Bronislaus P. Taurinski Structural Engineers saying that the five-story building, known as Bayview 60 Homes, was “structurally unsafe” and called for an immediate evacuation, the city said in a statement. Specifically, the structural engineers cited “a deflection in the elevation of the building’s floor slabs” as the reason for the evacuation, according to the city. The building was constructed in 1972 and was preparing for its 50-year recertification. “The City is working with the owner to ensure that all residents will receive proper assistance as they relocate within the next 24 hours,” City Manager Arthur Sorey said in a statement. ”The safety of the residents is our number one concern and we’re working as quickly as possible to mobilize our resources to the building site.”
Hotel Prices Hit Record High --American travelers are raring to go, and rising hotel prices aren’t stopping them. For evidence, see what Miami hotels are demanding on the weekend in early May when the Formula 1 racing series comes to town: The 1 South Beach is requiring four-night minimums at just under $4,000 a night, while the Hampton Inn in the city’s Brickell neighborhood is charging more than $400 a night.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 6.4% Compared to Same Week in 2019 --From CoStar: STR: With Spring Break Winding Down, US Hotel Performance Continues Dip - Reflecting continued seasonal slowing in spring break travel, U.S. hotel performance fell slightly from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through April 2.March 27 through April 2, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 64.1% (-6.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $145.74 (+11.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $93.48 (+4.5%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate Decreased in Q1 Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was 11.0% in Q1 2022, down from 11.2% in Q4 2021, and down from 11.4% in Q1 2021. The regional mall vacancy rate peaked at 11.5% in Q2 2021. For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.3% in Q1, unchanged from 10.3% in Q4, and down from 10.6% in Q1 2021. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked during the pandemic at 10.6% in both Q1 and Q2 2021. This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). The regional mall data starts in 2000. Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis. In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started. Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis. In the last several years, even prior to the pandemic, the regional mall vacancy rates increased significantly from an already elevated level. Effective rents have been mostly unchanged for regional malls over the last 3 years, and flat for strip malls for 5+ years.
Reis: Office Vacancy Rates Unchanged in Q1 --Reis reported the office vacancy rate was at 18.1% in Q1 2022, unchanged from 18.1% in Q4, and down from 18.2% in Q1 2021. Q2 2 021 saw the highest vacancy rate for offices since the early '90s (following the S&L crisis) NOTE: This says nothing about how many people are in the offices (related to the increase in work-from-home), just whether or not the office space is leased.This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 1999 the data is annual).The office vacancy rate was elevated prior to the pandemic and moved up during the pandemic.Reis also reported that office effective rents were essentially unchanged in Q1; rents are about at the same rate as early 2019.
New Vehicle Sales Plunge as Chip Shortages, Production Cuts, Low Inventories Drag On. Back Where They’d Been in 1979 - Amid ongoing chip shortages and other shortages, production halts, and depleted inventories on dealer lots, auto sales in the US, as measured by the number of vehicles delivered to end users, plunged 25.9% in March compared to March last year, and by 22% compared to March 2019, to 1.25 million vehicles.In Q1, sales fell by 15.8% from Q1 2021 and by 17.7% from Q1 2019, to 3.28 million vehicles, the worst Q1 since 2011.In terms of the number of vehicles sold, the auto industry hadn’t grown in two decades before Covid, with the huge trough of the Financial Crisis in between. But since early 2021, supply-chain issues dogging the industry have been triggering on-and-off production halts at various plants around the world. And these production halts are continuing into April – though automakers are saying that components are starting to flow a little better. Q1 sales were right back where they’d been in 1979.What has kept the industries revenues growing over the decades are higher prices, and this is hugely important now, with unit sales down so far. Higher retail prices are a mix of factors: More expensive models, higher MSRPs, and lower incentives by automakers. Multi-decade low incentives by automakers contribute to the weird phenomenon that many buyers are paying over sticker.Buyers spent $45.7 billion on new vehicles in March, according to J.D. Power estimates. But this was down by $6.2 billion from March 2021, as higher prices alone weren’t enough to overcome the plunge in sales.Production keeps getting slammed. For example, today GM halted production of its Chevrolet Silverado 1500 and GMC Sierra 1500 at the Fort Wayne Assembly plant in Indiana for two weeks due to the semiconductor shortage.When GM announced the plant shutdown last week, it said that chip supplies have improved so far this year. But there’s “still uncertainty and unpredictability in the semiconductor supply base, and we are actively working with our suppliers to mitigate potential issues moving forward.”GM also said that production at its Lansing Grand River plant will be halted all week due to supply chains issues this time unrelated to semiconductors. The plant makes the Cadillac CT4, Cadillac CT5 and Chevrolet Camaro.Ford halted production for the whole week, starting today, at its Flat Rock Assembly Plant in Michigan, due to the semiconductor shortage. Production at the plant, which produces the Mustang, was already halted multiple times this year.Toyota said that it would cut global vehicle production by 17% in April. Other automakers have similar supply chain problems.
After GM, Ford, FCA Abandoned Cars, Toyota, Now #1 in the US, Rubs In their Monumental Blunder Publicly - by Wolf Richter – To please Wall Street and concentrate on the highest-profit margin trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, GM, Ford, and FCA have killed nearly all their sedan models. GM stopped taking orders for the Malibu in February. They kept their muscle cars, and Cadillac kept two models. But the whole mainstream lineup of sedans is disappearing. At Ford, for example, outside of the Mustang, every car model got axed, from the entry-level Ford Fiesta that had a starting MSRP of $14,200 in 2019, its last year of production, to the Ford Fusion Hybrid, a large well-designed car that got around 40 mpg, which would be sorely needed at today’s gas prices. It was a move, designed by some corporate idiot perhaps with the support of some lavishly paid recently graduated MBAs at some big-name consulting firm, to please short-termism-infected analysts on Wall Street. And Toyota is having the last laugh. The former #3 in new vehicles sales in the US, and then the #2 after Ford walked away from sedans, is now #1. Toyota was #1 for the first time ever on a quarterly basis in Q2 2021, largely because it still had access to chips, while others didn’t, and it blew everyone away. But in Q1 2022, Toyota was #1 again. This time it also suffered from chip shortages and its sales were also down from a year ago. But it sold lots of those hated sedans, including lower-priced sedans that cost a lot less than SUVs and pickups, that the others have walked away from. And Toyota is now rubbing it in publicly. “A lot of our market share growth is really in the car side of the business,” Bob Carter, executive VP of sales for Toyota Motor North America, told reporters at a briefing Wednesday. “Cars are still an important part of the market,” he said. “Unlike other brands that have exited the sedan market, we’re choosing to double down,” he said. Honda and other foreign automakers are still selling lots of sedans as well – many of them lower priced cars that get great gas mileage. Tesla is making the Model 3, its lowest-priced model. GM, Ford, and FCA just walked away from the market to please some analysts at Wall Street banks, which will likely go down as one of the stupidest decisions ever in automotive history. Toyota’s sales in Q1 fell by 14.7% from a year ago, to 515,592 vehicles, but this surpassed the sales of GM (512,846 vehicles) and Ford (432,132). Toyota’s sales included 142,523 cars, Toyota and Lexus models combined, with 47,501 Corollas at the low end and 78,151 Camrys at the higher end. Car sales were down 25% from a year ago, as Toyota cannot make enough of them due to the chip shortage, and it too is prioritizing high-profit-margin trucks and SUVs, whose sales also declined as dealers ran out of inventory, but there is enough demand for cars. GM, Ford, and FCA just surrendered this business to Toyota, Honda, Tesla, and the other automakers that are still making sedans. And with gas prices where they are now – $6.15 a gallon of regular at my local gas station – those cars sure come in handy. GM, Ford, and FCA may never be able to fully recover from this monumental blunder.
Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Decline Seasonally Adjusted in March - From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline in March from Seasonal Adjustment: Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) declined 3.3% in March from February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 223.5, which was up 24.8% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in March was an increase of 0.6% compared to February, leaving the unadjusted average price up 23.2% year over year. Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly price increases that accelerated in each full week of March after the first week saw the smallest decline of the year.This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices declined in March seasonally adjusted but are still up 24.8% year-over-year.
Avian flu forces egg prices to surge - Egg prices have jumped by more than half in recent weeks as the avian influenza outbreak continues to shrink the Midwest flock even as the industry prepares for higher demand with the approach of Easter. Midwest farmers have had to kill more than 46 million chickens and turkeys in an effort to stanch the spread of avian flu. USDA April 1 pegged cartoned, large white shell eggs from the Midwest at $2.47 per dozen, up 91% from March 18. In California, cartoned, cage-free eggs were $3.32 per dozen April 1, up 63.5% from March 18. Concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from avian influenza outbreaks in commercial flocks are “keen on marketers' minds as the Easter marketing season has arrived,” USDA said in its Egg Markets Overview. Outbreaks in layer flocks in the Upper Midwest have “placed a damper on the marketplace as offerings remain tight on reduced production and sharp price increases have many buyers rethinking their market position,” USDA said. USDA said it appears much higher wholesale prices prompted grocers to shift feature promotions to cage-free eggs, now priced competitively and offering better margins. The agency’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service said avian influenza had been found in 257 flocks — 166 of them commercial — as of April 4. More than 46.37 million birds have been affected. Twenty-five states report having at least one infected flock. Wyoming is the only Western state affected so far. Rebuilding a population takes at least a year, Lillywhite said. After federal approval, chicks are brought in on a schedule that aims to meet hatcheries’ capacity and other needs and to optimize laying schedules.
Farmers Struggle to Keep Up With the Rising Costs of Fertilizer --Arkansas farmer Matt Miles knows his way around pastures—and he has the records to prove it. In 2013, he harvested a 107.63-bushel soybean field, smashing the state yield record. Six years later, in 2019, he surpassed his own record, producing a whopping 120.53 bushels per acre. And while reaching these milestones has not always been a seamless journey, the farmer says the past few months have brought an unprecedented set of economic blunders. The fourth-generation farmer, who also grows corn, rice, cotton and wheat, has watched as the cost and availability of everything from nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to Roundup have been disrupted. On average, he says, fertilizer is currently about 35 percent more expensive than it was in the fall, with Roundup up nearly 90 percent. On top of that, Miles, who orders his product up to a year in advance, has encountered problems trying to source all the products he needs. Last month, one retailer told him he could only fulfill 30 percent of his order for the upcoming season. There simply wasn’t enough supply available. “I had to go to a different supplier and pay today’s prices for the same product, which costs me $40,000 or $50,000 on that one input,” he says. “It’s not a good feeling. I feel like somebody owes me $40,000 or $50,000 because they didn’t have the product that I locked in.” Miles is not alone in his experience. Since early 2021, farmers across the country have struggled to keep up with price hikes and shortages for fertilizers and herbicides. According to the USDA, three kinds of fertilizer have dramatically increased in price over the past year: the cost of urea is 149 percent higher, liquid nitrogen is 192 percent more expensive and anhydrous ammonia is up a whopping 235 percent.
Trade Deficit Mostly Unchanged at $89.2 Billion in February -From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $89.2 billion in February, down less than $0.1 billion from $89.2 billion in January, revised.February exports were $228.6 billion, $4.1 billion more than January exports. February imports were $317.8 billion, $4.1 billion more than January imports. Exports decreased and imports increased in January.Exports are up 20% compared to January 2021; imports are up 23% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports),The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.The trade deficit with China increased to $30.7 billion in February, from $24.6 billion in February 2021.
AAR: March Rail Carloads Up Year-over-year, Intermodal Down From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. March 2022 was another mixed month for U.S. rail volumes. Total carloads were up 1.2% over March 2021. That’s their 12th gain in the past 13 months, but also their smallest percentage gain during that period. Total carloads averaged 233,909 per week, the second most in the past nine months. Intermodal originations, by contrast, were down 6.4% in March 2022 from March 2021. Intermodal has been down on a year-over-year basis for seven of the past eight months. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022: in March 2022, total originated U.S. rail carloads were up 1.2% (13,456 carloads) over March 2021. That’s the 12th gain for total carloads in the past 13 months, but it’s also the smallest percentage increase for the 12 months with gains. Total carloads averaged 233,909 per week in March 2022, the second most in the past nine months (October 2021 was higher). The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers):For intermodal, originations in March 2022 totaled 1.34 million containers and trailers, down 6.4% (92,170 units) from March 2021. For the first three months of 2022, volume was 3.37 million units, down 6.9% (249,672) from last year. The first three months of 2021 were by far the highest-volume first three months of a year in history for intermodal. The comparable figure for this year is the fourth highest in history (behind 2021, 2018, and 2019).
ISM® Services Index Increased to 58.3% in March --The ISM® Services index was at 58.3%, up from 56.5% last month. The employment index increased to 54.0%, from 48.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 56.5% February 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business® “In March, the Services PMI® registered 58.3 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than February’s reading of 56.5 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.5 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared to the reading of 55.1 percent in February, and the New Orders Index figure of 60.1 percent is 4 percentage points higher than the February reading of 56.1 percent.The employment index increased to 54.0%, from 48.5% the previous month.
March Markit Services PMI: Growth Quickens -The March US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 58.0 percent, up from the final February estimate of 56.5.Here is the opening from the latest press release: “Business activity in the vast service sector enjoyed a boost from the relaxation of virus-fighting restrictions in March, regaining strong momentum after the Omicron induced slowdown seen at the start of the year. Demand for services is in fact growing so fast that companies are increasingly struggling to keep pace with customer orders, leading to the largest rise in backlogs of work recorded since the survey began in 2009."However, while this suggests that companies have a healthy book of orders to sustain strong output in the coming months, the downside is further upward pressure on prices as demand exceeds supply. With firms' costs inflated by the soaring price of energy, fuel and other raw materials, as well as rising wages, prices charged for services are rising at an unprecedented rate. Consumer price inflation therefore looks likely to accelerate further as we head into the spring." [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 166,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending April 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 166,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 31,000 from 202,000 to 171,000. The 4-week moving average was 170,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 30,500 from 208,500 to 178,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 170,000.
American workers should make $27 an hour if minimum wage kept pace with productivity, an economist says -- When President Biden called on Congress to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour in his State of the Union address last month, he wasn't promoting a far-left agenda. A Pew Poll from last year indicates that 62% of all Americans approve of a $15 federal minimum wage. But even with that popular support, we're now living in the longest period of history without a federal minimum wage increase since the minimum wage was established in 1938 as part of the Fair Labor Standards Act. Thankfully, state and local governments have picked up Congress's slack by raising the wage on their own. In Seattle, which was one of the the first cities in the nation to warm up the "Fight for $15" a decade ago this fall, the minimum wage has continued to climb with annual cost of living hikes and is now at $17.27 an hour for nearly every employer. But while President Biden's call for a $15-an-hour minimum wage far outstrips the recommendations of the last two Democrats at the top of the presidential ticket, the fact remains that it has been 20 years since the $15 minimum wage became a rallying cry. In the intervening 10 years, families have seen skyrocketing prices andexorbitant increases in housing costs, and it's now near impossible for a family of four to survive on a $15 minimum wage in any state. In the latest episode of "Pitchfork Economics," Dean Baker, a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, made a good argument that the minimum wage in America should be tied to productivity."We actually did have a minimum wage that kept pace with productivity growth from when it was created [in 1938] until 1968, so for three decades," Baker said. "And of course, the economy did very well in that period. I'm not saying that's the reason, but it obviously didn't keep the economy from performing very well."It makes sense on a very basic level to tie the federal minimum wage to worker productivity — after all, workers should be reimbursed for the value they create for a company, and productivity is a direct measurement of a company's output in relation to input. But worker productivity has grown three and a half times more than worker paysince 1979 — with productivity up by nearly 60% and median pay up by less than 16%. If the federal minimum wage had grown at the same pace as productivity, Baker said, "We'd be over $27 an hour, if you added in inflation and productivity growth."
Amazon eyeing plan to ban words such as ‘union,’ ‘restrooms’ and ‘slave labor’ from internal chat app: report - Amazon is reportedly considering a program that would flag internal messages among employees that include certain words, some of which pertain to organized labor, according to internal company documents. The documents, obtained by The Intercept, showed that Amazon’s program intends to block words such as “slave labor,” “prison,” “plantation” and “restrooms.” The plan follows reports that Amazon employees worked so hard that they had to urinate in plastic bottles instead of taking time to go to the restroom. The “auto bad word monitor” reportedly blacklists profanities and inappropriate terms but also targets terms related to organized labor including “union,” “grievance,” “pay raise,” “compensation” and more. ADVERTISING “Our teams are always thinking about new ways to help employees engage with each other,” Amazon spokesperson Barbara Agrait told The Hill in a statement. “This particular program has not been approved yet and may change significantly or even never launch at all.” The program has not yet launched and remains in the planning phase, but the plan for the it was reportedly concocted after a November 2021 meeting of Amazon executives looking to reduce employee attrition. “If it does launch at some point down the road,” Agrait said, “there are no plans for many of the words you’re calling out to be screened. The only kinds of words that may be screened are ones that are offensive or harassing, which is intended to protect our team.” The report comes just days after Amazon workers at a Staten Island, N.Y. fulfillment center made it the first company location to successfully unionize.
Disney may be woke, but it’s also goofy - Perhaps you’ve heard that at Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., they won’t be using the welcome greeting, “Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls” for the Magic Kingdom fireworks show anymore. Apparently, that wasn’t inclusive enough. From now on, visitors at the “Happily Ever After” fireworks show will hear a greeting, “Good evening, dreamers of all ages!” In fact, Walt Disney Company is eliminating gender references at all its theme parks, greeting people as “friends.” The change comes about because not everybody considers himself or herself a man or a woman, or a boy or a girl. Some people see themselves as something else, as “gender neutral.” As a company executive explained it, Disney needs to go genderless to “create that magical moment” for everyone, including people who may not identify with traditional gender roles. But does it really make sense to stop calling kids “boys and girls” because a tiny percentage of them don’t consider themselves either? Will saying “boys and girls” really damage other children? Even being “woke” has its limits. Most Americans consider Disney as a place that entertains kids and their parents, not an activist organization that bashes laws it doesn’t like and embraces cultural ideas that many people would consider extreme. For example, Disney corporate president Karey Burke has said that “as the mother of one transgender child and one pansexual child” she wants more gay lead characters in stories that aren’t just about being gay. “We have many, many, many LGBTQIA characters in our stories and yet we don’t have enough leads,” she said. In fact, Disney now says a minimum of 50 percent of its characters will come from “underrepresented groups” I’m not sure how Disney portrays characters as gay. Among existing characters, I assume Mickey and Minnie are straight and will remain so. Goofy and Pluto always confused me, but if Disney wants to portray them as a gay couple, that’s fine. And if they turn Peter Pan into “Peter Pansexual,” I won’t lose any sleep — because, at some level, I really don’t care. But here’s something I do care about: hypocrisy. While Disney is vying for the honor of being America’s most woke company by proclaiming undying support for gay rights, it’s doing business with countries where homosexuality is against the law.
Republican-controlled states have higher murder rates than Democratic ones: study -- Republican politicians routinely claim that cities run by Democrats have been experiencing crime waves caused by failed governance, but a new study shows murder rates are actually higher in states and cities controlled by Republicans.“We’re seeing murders in our cities, all Democrat-run,” former President Donald Trump asserted at a March 26 rally in Georgia. “People are afraid to go out.” A daily roundup of news, sports, finance, and more. See latestBy subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy.In February, Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., blamed Democrats for a 2018 law that reduced some federal prison sentences — even though it was signed by Trump after passing a GOP-controlled Congress. “It’s your party who voted in lockstep for the First Step Act that let thousands of violent felons on the street who have now committed innumerable violent crimes,” Cotton said during a speech in the Senate.Last December, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, told Fox News viewers, “America’s most beautiful cities are indeed being ruined by liberal policies: There’s a direct line between death and decay and liberal policies.”But a comparison of violent crime rates in jurisdictions controlled by Democrats and Republicans tells a very different story. In fact, a new study from the center-left think tank Third Way shows that states won by Trump in the 2020 election have higher murder rates than those carried by Joe Biden. The highest murder rates, the study found, are often in conservative, rural states.The study found that murder rates in the 25 states Trump carried in 2020 are 40% higher overall than in the states Biden won. (The report used 2020 data because 2021 data is not yet fully available.) The five states with the highest per capita murder rate — Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama and Missouri — all lean Republican and voted for Trump.
Denver will appeal verdict awarding $14 million to 2020 protesters, mayor says -The city of Denver plans to appeal a court verdict last month that awarded $14 million to protesters a jury found were subjected to excessive police force during 2020 rallies. Denver Mayor Michael Hancock (D) told reporters on Thursday the racial justice protests in 2020 following the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis were unprecedented and that many cities were unprepared for them, according to the The Denver Gazette.“We’ve never seen that before, and while we were not perfect in our administration and dealing with the protest, we believe that we certainly have some reasons to go back and to look at a different type of decision with regards to that situation, so we will be appealing,” Hancock said, according to the newspaper. A jury found in March that 11 protesters had their free speech rights and their rights to be protected from unreasonable force violated during the summer 2020 protests.Police allegedly used shotguns that contained Kevlar bags filled with lead. Zach Packard, a protester who was hospitalized after being struck in the head with a shotgun blast, was awarded $3 million, the largest amount among the plaintiffs.City lawyers had argued at trial that more than 80 officers were injured during the protests and protesters had incurred more than $1 million in damages.Other cities across the country are also dealing with lawsuits or examining how they handled the waves of protests that erupted in 2020 over police brutality and racial justice concerns.
Here are the top 10 most challenged books of 2021 – -The United States has seen a major uptick in the number of attempted book bans. Last year, the American Library Association tracked 729 challenges to library, school or university teaching material, resulting in 1,590 book challenges or removals. The bulk of those challenged books were written by or about Black people or members of the LGBTQ+ community. Those challenges represent the greatest number of attempted book bans since the organization began compiling its challenged books lists 20 years ago, ALA President Patricia Wong said in a statement. Every year, the ALA’s Office of Intellectual Freedom creates a list of the top 10 most challenged books to teach the public about censorship in libraries and schools. “We support individual parents’ choices concerning their child’s reading and believe that parents should not have those choices dictated by others. Young people need to have access to a variety of books from which they can learn about different perspectives,” Wong said. “So, despite this organized effort to ban books, libraries remain ready to do what we always have: make knowledge and ideas available so people are free to choose what to read.” Here are the Top 10 Most Challenged Books of 2021:
- 1. “Gender Queer,” by Maia Kobabe Reasons: Banned, challenged and restricted for LGBTQIA+ content and because it was considered to have sexually explicit images.
- 2. “Lawn Boy,” by Jonathan Evison Reasons: Banned and challenged for LGBTQIA+ content and because it was considered to be sexually explicit.
- 3. “All Boys Aren’t Blue,” by George M. Johnson Reasons: Banned and challenged for LGBTQIA+ content, profanity, and because it was considered to be sexually explicit.
- 4. “Out of Darkness,” by Ashley Hope Perez Reasons: Banned, challenged and restricted for depictions of abuse and because it was considered to be sexually explicit.
- 5. “The Hate U Give,” by Angie Thomas Reasons: Banned and challenged for profanity, violence and because it was thought to promote an anti-police message and indoctrination of a social agenda.
- 6. “The Absolutely True Diary of a Part-Time Indian,” by Sherman Alexie Reasons: Banned and challenged for profanity, sexual references and use of a derogatory term.
- 7. “Me and Earl and the Dying Girl,” by Jesse Andrews Reasons: Banned and challenged because it was considered sexually explicit and degrading to women.
- 8. “The Bluest Eye,” by Toni Morrison Reasons: Banned and challenged because it depicts child sexual abuse and was considered sexually explicit.
- 9. “This Book is Gay,” by Juno Dawson Reasons: Banned, challenged, relocated and restricted for providing sexual education and LGBTQIA+ content.
- 10. “Beyond Magenta,” by Susan Kuklin Reasons: Banned and challenged for LGBTQIA+ content and because it was considered to be sexually explicit.
Florida lawmaker vows to make gender-affirming care for minors felony child abuse – A Florida Republican on Monday pledged to introduce legislation next session that would make providing gender-affirming services to minors illegal. Randy Fine, a member of the state House of Representatives, on Monday said he would “shepard legislation” next session to make providing gender-affirming care to minors, including medications and surgeries, felony child abuse, punishable by prison time or the revocation of a medical license. “If an adult wants to self-mutilate in pursuit of the fiction they can defy G-d and science, more power to them — as they don’t expect me to pay for it,” Fine tweeted Monday. “But no child should be put in the position of making life-altering decisions before they are of the age of majority.” Florida is just shy of a year out from its 2023 session and Fine, who has served in the state House of Representatives since 2016, is up for reelection in November. America is changing faster than ever! Add Changing America to your Facebook or Twitter feed to stay on top of the news. Fine has been a vocal critic of transgender people and last year was as one of more than 70 Republicans in the House to vote in favor of a bill prohibiting transgender women and girls from playing on sports teams consistent with their gender identity, though that legislation later died in the state Senate. “I can say I’m a porcupine, but that doesn’t make it so,” Fine tweeted on Monday.. “It is time to dispense with this fantasy making women’s sports a joke and our schools into a cesspool.”
Teens stopped by police more likely to disengage from school, study shows – Teens who are stopped by law enforcement are more likely to disengage from school the following day, , according to a new study. Researchers analyzed more than 13,000 diary entries from 387 students aged 13-17 across five public school districts in Pittsburgh, who submitted reports online daily over 35 days. They found that 9 percent of students were stopped by police — including officers at the schools — during the study period. Student disengagement after police stops included missing some or all of classes the following day and a lack of focus. Black teens reported more intrusive interactions, although researchers did not find a significant difference in the rate of stops across racial groups. “Police officers use their own discretion to decide which people to stop and frisk in their aim to reduce crime,” lead researcher Juan Del Toro said in a news release. “However, many of these practices result in racial disparities in policing and stop-and-frisks.” But students who said they were negatively affected by stops were no more likely to be stopped by police the following day, which “helps refute common stereotypes that only ‘bad kids’ are stopped by the police,” Del Toro said. America is changing faster than ever! Add Changing America to your Facebook or Twitter feed to stay on top of the news. Del Toro noted that police stops could lead to more long-term consequences for students, including lower grades, lower test scores and lower chance of getting into college. The team concluded that law enforcement officials should undergo training on how to handle interactions with children and teens alongside community efforts to help youth succeed in school and their daily lives.
The Teen Girls Aren’t Going to Forget - by Suzy Weiss --Lily May Holland, 16, remembers the long, lonely days during lockdown when her parents, both doctors, were at work. She’d watch “Gilmore Girls” and “Gossip Girl” and “Grey’s Anatomy” over and over. She stopped eating and started doing Chloe Ting workouts. Teachers would post assignments online, but it was like—who cared? Everything happened in isolation, like they were atoms. “I would’ve gone to parties, and me and my friends were planning to go to concerts, and homecoming,” Lily said. “I had crushes freshman year. But all that fell away.” Teenagers need a social life. Every single study and report and piece of data tells us so. But we don’t need studies to tell us what we all already know. Ask yourself: What would it have been like if you had spent your thirteenth year in solitude? It was more than a year, actually. Millions of American kids had gone a year-and-a-half mostly alone. And every single girl I spoke to said the same thing about the experience: They felt like they were sinking, or being swallowed up. So it almost seemed like an understatement when, in December 2021, the Surgeon General, Dr. Vivek Murthy, said the effect of the lockdowns had been “devastating” for young people’s mental health. The impact of all that emptiness—the zig-zagging from one hazy, blue-ish screen to another and then to another—was starting to come into focus, and it was scary. Lily said that, at some point mid-lockdown, she got sick of communicating with other human beings via iPhone. So then she stopped communicating at all. Galanti said, “It’s almost like a volcano that we set ourselves up for.”It was an unprecedented volcano. In the past, Earth-shaking events—the Great Depression, World War II, Vietnam—had forced kids to grow up. Teenagers got jobs or were deployed overseas, and when they came back they settled down and had kids or left home and fled to the big city. The point is that they started their lives. Covid did the opposite. Instead of nudging young people out the door, it anchored them to their parents, to their bedrooms and to their screens. And now that the madness is finally ebbing, they’re unsure how to proceed. Jonathan Haidt, the psychologist and author of “The Coddling of the American Mind,” traces the downward spiral to 2013 and the explosion of social media. That’s when the helicopter-parented 18-year-olds started to leave home with their iPhones and not much else.But Covid has dramatically compounded these forces. Being hermetically sealed off from bad dates, bad breakups, awkward conversations, tough teachers and mean bosses has left young people even less capable of navigating the hiccups of daily life. The CDC said that, from 2019 to 2020, the incidence of girls ages 12 to 17 who were rushed to the Emergency Room after attempting suicide jumped by 51 percent. E.R. admissions for eating disorders doubled among the same group, according to the CDC, and tripled for tic-related disorders, which experts trace in part to TikTok. (During roughly the same period, the overall U.S. suicide rate, which skews heavily male, dropped by about 3 percent.)
Sacramento teachers: No return to work without seeing the contract! -Last night, shortly after 9 pm, the Sacramento City Teachers Association (SCTA) and Service Employees International Union (SEIU) announced they had reached a sellout agreement with the Sacramento City Unified School District (SCUSD) impacting thousands of teachers and support staff. The union ordered teachers to return to work Monday morning, with less than 12 hours notice. The SCTA and SEIU provided teachers with no details of the deal, but an announcement from the district shows the deal includes a paltry 4 percent wage increase for the upcoming year, far below the cost of living. Inflation has risen 11 percent since that last contract ended. What is being proposed is an outright sellout. Teachers and support staff must reject this deal and demand no return to work until they have had enough time to study the contract and read the fine print. The SCTA/SEIU press conference announcing the deal was a pathetic exercise in deception which provided no details of the deal or even of the time for a vote. The union bureaucrats gave no details on school funding, on wages, on healthcare, or anything else. The only information available on social media is that a union official, Chris Johnson, declared “there were some compromises.” During the press conference, one union bureaucrat called negotiating with the district a “heartwarming experience.” Another said teachers upset over their conditions should simply “call your representatives”—that is, the same politicians who are cutting teacher pay, forcing them back to school in the midst of the pandemic, and slashing budgets for public education. Every bureaucrat agreed that it was great the strike was coming to an end. Their press conference concluded when the bureaucrats gave themselves a round of applause. Talk is cheap, but gas and rent are expensive! The fact that union representatives did not provide any information about the contract is a sign that it is a total sellout. It is no wonder the union doesn’t want workers to know what is in the deal. According to an announcement last night by the school district, the deal includes just a 4% salary increase for the 2021-22 school year and a $1,250 stipend. The deal includes minuscule stipends for SEIU members as well as for part time SCTA employees. After tax, these stipends will barely cover two trips to the grocery store. Moreover, teachers have already lost 4 percent of their annual pay from this 8-day strike.
Joe Rogan said transgender swimmer Lia Thomas competing is an assault on women's sports - Joe Rogan has weighed in on the Lia Thomas controversy, and claims that the NCAA transgender swimmer competing and dominating is an "assault on women's sports."In Thursday's episode of "The Joe Rogan Experience," the prolific podcaster provided his two cents on how Thomas being the best "women's swimmer" is actually "terrible" for the transgender movement."What it is now is not good. What it is now is assault on women's sports, and the idea that anybody would think it's fair that someone who was number 462 as a man, 462 in the nation is number one as a woman a year later, and that's fair," said Rogan.Thomas – a biological male – is a fifth-year senior who swam for three years on the men's team before transitioning to female. Thomas skyrocketed from being ranked the 462nd-best male college swimmer to the No. 1-ranked female collegiate swimmer.Fellow comedian and guest Yannis Pappas joked, "You don't think maybe it was her passion for swimming that got her to number one? Or changing diet?" Rogan replied, "Could be, maybe just becoming her true self." "But that might be the woke straw that breaks society's camel's back. Women are so frustrated, or parents," Rogan continued. "If your daughter is competing, and they're competing against a trans woman, it's not fair. It's just not fair. No matter what anybody says."
Oberlin College to pay record $31 million to Gibson's Bakery over racist claims - Progressive Oberlin College lost a huge case in appeals court last week that forced the school to pay $31 million to a bakery, which it falsely accused of carrying out racist actions in a 2016 incident.Gibson's Bakery – a 135-year-old family business near the campus of Oberlin College – was the site of an unfortunate incident. The owner's son allegedly confronted three black Oberlin students who attempted to shoplift bottles of wine. According to the police report, one of the suspects assaulted a store employee when confronted about the stolen wine.The three students pleaded guilty to attempted theft and aggravated trespassing, and "said in statements required by a plea agreement that their actions were wrong and that the store wasn't racist," according toCBS News.Following the incident, the Oberlin College student senate passed a resolution claiming that the bakery "has a history of racial profiling and discriminatory treatment of students and residents alike," despite any evidence. The senate called for student to "immediately cease all support, financial and otherwise, of Gibson's" and called upon Oberlin College President Marvin Krislov to publicly condemn the bakery.The bakery launched a lawsuit in 2017, in which they asserted that the campaign launched by the small liberal arts college in northern Ohio was not only unfounded, but crippled their business.In 2019, Lorain County Judge John Miraldi ordered Oberlin to pay the bakery over $40 million in damages. The figure was later reduced to $25 million, plus $6.2 million for the bakery's lawyer fees.The award is the largest defamation verdict in Ohio history, accordingto the Washington Examiner.On Thursday, Ohio's Ninth District Court of Appeals upheld the previous court decision and ruled that Oberlin College must pay more than $31 million to Gibson's Bakery.The decision cited "the active role that Oberlin played in the publication of the Senate Resolution" that demanded a boycott of the bakery,according to the Chronicle of Higher Education."At trial, it was absolutely clear to the jury (as reflected by the verdict) that there was not a shred of truth in the vicious statements about the Gibsons and that the College caused the devastating harm," the law firm representing the Gibson family proclaimed. "The truth prevailed." An Oberlin spokesperson issued a statement to Legal Insurrection saying that the school was "obviously disappointed that the appeals court affirmed the judgment in its ruling earlier today.""We are reviewing the court’s opinion carefully as we evaluate our options and determine next steps," the spokesperson added.
A physician didn’t shower for 5 years. Here’s what he found out. James Hamblin made a splash when announcing he hadn’t showered or used much soap in five years. The physician, Yale public health lecturer, and staff writer at The Atlantic experimented on himself as research for his latest book, “Clean: The New Science of Skin.”Hygiene rituals are as old as recorded civilization. While Muslims and Hindus created elaborate cleaning rituals, European Christians thought bathing increased your chances of falling ill thanks to miasma theory.. For centuries, changing your linen shirt supposedly bestowed cleanliness—not soap and water. Many Christians during this era only had one bath in their entire lives: baptism. While easy to shake your head in disbelief, Hamblin points out that many current hygiene and skincare rituals have moved us too far in the opposite direction. You certainly want to wash more than yearly, yet our expensive rituals may be more harmful than helpful. Modern hygiene and skincare is also a time suck. As Hamblin points out, if you spend a half-hour showering and applying products every day, you’ll devote over two years to showering-related activities over the course of a century-long life. In his previous book, “If Our Bodies Could Talk,” Hamblin investigated numerous body myths. In “Clean,” he focuses on our largest organ. Skin is an environment unto itself. What follows are six important lessons in his book, ranging from hygiene practices to capitalistic greed.
David Hogg wants to know why we don't need a license to kill people. No, really. - Gun control activist and Harvard whiz kid David Hagg took to Twitter to ask a very serious question about gun rights in this country, and he'd like to remind the court of public opinion that he's entitled to own special level of dumb. “If you need a license to kill deer why don’t you need one to kill humans?” Hogg tweeted, adding “Plenty of people will think this is dumb- good for you. I’m not looking out for an election and I’m entitled to my own opinion no matter how much you disagree." If you need a license to drive car, cut hair or to hunt you ought to need one to buy a gun. Your right to own a gun with little regulation matters a lot less to me than the rights my classmates had before they were killed. Limits on rights start where they infringe on others to practice theirs. No right is absolute We have a right to not be shot.
CDC recommends fourth Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccine doses for people age 50 and older CNBC The top U.S. health regulators on Tuesday cleared fourth Covid vaccine doses for older adults, amid uncertainty over whether an even more contagious version of omicron will cause another wave of infections in the U.S. as it has in Europe and China. The FDA authorized Pfizer and Moderna fourth doses for everyone age 50 and older, as well as a fifth dose for certain younger people with compromised immune systems. People age 12 and older with weakened immune systems are eligible for a Pfizer fifth dose, and those 18 and older with the same condition are eligible for Moderna. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quickly signed off on the decision, paving the way for those eligible to get a new round of boosters. The CDC also recommended that all adults who received two doses of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine get third shots using Pfizer or Moderna. Adults who received the J&J vaccine and a second shot of Pfizer or Moderna are not yet eligible for a third dose, unless they are age 50 and older or have compromised immune systems. All of the new boosters are to be administered at least four months after the last shot. The FDA and CDC made the decision without calling meetings of their vaccine advisory committees, a rare move the agencies have made more frequently over the course of the pandemic to expand uses of already-approved Covid vaccines. The drug regulator's authorization comes just two weeks after Pfizer and Moderna asked the FDA to permit a second booster shot based on data from Israel. The FDA's advisory committee on vaccines is scheduled to meet on April 6 to discuss the future of booster shots in the U.S. The vaccine experts are expected to hold a broad discussion about boosters and will not vote on a specific recommendation. Dr. Peter Marks, head of the FDA office responsible for vaccine safety and efficacy, said the drug regulator did not call an advisory meeting because the decision was "relatively straightforward." "This fourth booster dose is something that evidence that we have now from Israel suggests that by getting this, one can reduce the risk of hospitalization and death in this population of older individuals," Marks said during a call with reporters after the decision. Dr. Paul Offit, a committee member, criticized the drug regulator for moving forward without holding an open meeting where the American public can hear experts weigh the data and make a recommendation to the FDA about the best path forward. The vaccine advisory committee's recommendations are nonbinding, but they help provide transparency for the public.
What Your COVID Immunity May Be Like With A 4th Shot - A fourth COVID-19 shot has been authorized for people over the age of 50 along with those under 50 who are immunocompromised. The authorization comes as BA.2, a subvariant of omicron, spreads across the globe and escalates in parts of the United States, sparking concerns about how long immunity lasts after a booster. The latest evidence suggests antibody levels, which protect us from infection, wane about four months after a booster shot. T cells, the part of our immune system that protects us against severe illness, see a slight dip at the four-month mark but remain robust. This waning does not mean we’re no longer protected; real-world data shows that the vast majority of people who have received three doses are incredibly well protected from hospitalization (a 90% risk reduction) several months after their latest dose. A recent study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests vaccine effectiveness starts to wane about four months after a booster dose (which is, presumably, due to declining antibody levels). Among people who had received three doses during the delta wave, vaccine effectiveness against urgent care and emergency room visits was 97% within two months of vaccination; that dropped to 89% after four months. During the omicron wave, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization in people who had three doses was 91% within two months after their latest dose and 78% after four months. A paper from the United Kingdom published in The Lancet last July found that antibody levels after two doses waned at the two-to-three-month mark, though antibody levels were still pretty high at that point with the Pfizer vaccine (higher than with the AstraZeneca shots). A report published in The New England Journal of Medicine in January 2022 found that while antibody levels declined six months after a Moderna booster, the remaining antibodies were still able to successfully fend off omicron. At this point, scientists don’t clearly know if there’s a specific antibody level that would indicate someone is well protected against infection — though it’s clear that higher levels of antibodies generally equal greater protection against infection. What we do know is that even when waning occurs, most people who have had booster shots continue to be safe from severe illness, hospitalization and death. Research shows that the pace at which antibody levels decline is somewhat influenced by age, gender (antibodies decline more rapidly in men), and immunosuppressive health conditions. But Yang, who studies our immune response against COVID-19, said he’s seen 100-year-olds with long-lasting antibody levels — so it’s not always so black and white.
‘First-of-its-kind’ nasal spray that prevents COVID-19 could be available this year – A nasal spray that blocks COVID-19 infection and treats people who are already sick could be available within the next six months, according to researchers at Cornell University. Their study discovered a small molecule that people can spray into their noses which prevents COVID from infecting human cells.In experiments on lab cells and in mice, researchers found that the molecule N-0385 can both protect against infection in healthy individuals and eases symptoms in patients using the spray within 12 hours of exposure to COVID. For humans, the team believes this could soon become a new coronavirus treatment that only requires a few daily doses.“There are very few, if any, small molecule antivirals that have been discovered that work prophylactically to prevent infection,” explains Hector Aguilar-Carreno, associate professor of virology in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology in the College of Veterinary Medicine, in a university release. “A TMPRSS2 Inhibitor ACTS as a pan-SARS-CoV-2 prophylactic and therapeutic.”
Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against hospitalization in those testing positive for Omicron and Delta variants -A recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server assessed the effectiveness of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines against the hospitalization of infected patients. Various studies have reported on the efficient protection provided by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines against the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections. However, several reports suggest reduced vaccine effectiveness against the hospitalization of SARS-CoV-2 Delta-infected patients even post booster dose. Therefore, extensive research is needed to understand the duration of vaccine protection against severe disease. In the present study, researchers evaluated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in reducing hospitalization of patients testing polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants. The study results showed that a total of 409,985 tests were performed during the study period, among which 115,720 were case-patients, and 294,265 were controls. Approximately 44.2% of the cases and 11.7% of the controls were community tested first, and 38,150 cases and 31,552 controls were symptomatic. The team found that the number of symptomatic ECDS admissions in the pillar 2 tests was significantly lower than that of SUS admissions among populations aged above 65 years. This difference was noticeably lower in the Omicron-infected cohort aged between 18 and 64 years. Also, for patients aged between 18 to 64 years, the proportion of SUS admissions reported to have an intervention during the hospital stay was higher for Delta-infected patients at 20.8% than for Omicron-infected patients at 2.5% and for the control cases at 4.4%.For patients aged 65 years and above, vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 related hospitalization using the ECDS data was 86% to 91% which rose to 93% to 95% when respiratory coding was used. Contrastingly, the vaccine effectiveness using the SUS data in the same age group was much lower but was highly identical to that against symptomatic infection, when zero hospital admission days or a non-primary respiratory diagnosis was considered.When more specific SUS endpoints were evaluated, vaccine effectiveness improved to more than 88% to 93% and was similar to that calculated with the ECDS data. In patients aged 18 to 64 years, the ECDS data reported vaccine effectiveness of 75% to 80%. Notably, a substantial increase in vaccine effectiveness was observed with an increase in the length of hospital stay and with the use of supplemental oxygen.The study findings showed that high levels of booster vaccine effectiveness were found against COVID-19 hospitalization in individuals infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. The vaccine efficacy was noted particularly among older patients more susceptible to severe COVID-19. However, substantial evidence reported limited waning of vaccine effectiveness three to four months post-administration of a booster dose.
Groundbreaking collaborative work defines the risk of SARS-CoV-2 variants on immune protection -In a paper in the journal Nature, Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists Bette Korber, Hyejin Yoon, Will Fischer and James Theiler, among nearly 130 authors from institutions around the world, describe their groundbreaking collaborative work, "Defining the risk of SARS-CoV-2 variants on immune protection."Korber, Fischer, Yoon and Theiler are members of a rarified team that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases assembled in January 2021, drawing on experts from around the world who specialize in relevant research fields such as viruses, the immune system, vaccines, epidemiology, structural biology, bioinformatics, virus genetics, and evolution. The team is called SAVE, for SARS-CoV-2 Assessment of Viral Evolution.As noted in the Nature paper, the authors state, "This effort was designed to provide a real-time risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 variants potentially impacting transmission, virulence, and resistance to convalescent and vaccine-induced immunity. The SAVE program serves as a critical data-generating component of the United States Government SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group to assess implications of SARS-CoV-2 variants on diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics and for communicating public health risk."SAVE focuses on mutations in SARS-CoV-2 and emerging virus variants. But its members say the global collaborative concept "is a broad model for rapidly responding to evolving pathogens with pandemic potential.""Over the past two decades, we have witnessed the emergence/re-emergence of several RNA viruses, including West Nile virus, H1N1 influenza virus, chikungunya virus, Zika virus, SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV and Ebola virus, that have threatened global public health," the paper's summary states. "Developing collaborative programs between academic, industry and commercial partners is essential to respond to rapidly evolving viruses," said Marciela DeGrace of NIAID, the paper's lead author.
How long covid is accelerating a revolution in medical research When Liza Fisher’s body became racked by tremors shortly after she was hospitalized with covid-19 in 2020, she began an 18-month medical odyssey, consulting immunologists, cardiologists, neurologists and countless other -ologists in the hope they would know how to treat the crippling convulsions. “They had no experience,” said Fisher, 38, a former flight attendant and part-time yoga instructor who now uses a wheelchair. So Fisher sought out fellow sufferers online, joining an increasingly vocal group of citizen scientists in their bid for research targeted at treating long covid. What is long covid? Fisher’s experience — and that of others like her — is advancing a revolution in research not just for covid but also many other conditions, experts say. Patients, who have typically been only subjects in the research process, are becoming partners in it. They are documenting their symptoms online in real time, as well as helping to come up with questions and strategies for surveys and, eventually, to disseminate results. Think of it as the guinea pigs working alongside the scientists. It is the latest step in the growing understanding that partnering with patients is not only the just and equitable thing to do but also that it can improve research. In the late 1980s, as the HIV/AIDS epidemic gained momentum, ACT UP and other groups successfully pushed to move drugs more quickly through the development pipeline. In 2010, the Affordable Care Act injected funding into patient-centered research.
The CDC just admitted that it massively overreported COVID deaths - The federal government has a counting problem. They miscounted the number of Americans in the 2020 census, and they miscounted the number of vaccinated Americans. Most recently, the Centers for Disease Control admitted this week that they miscounted the number of Americans who have died "from" COVID-19. According to the Daily Wire: The Centers for Disease and Control updated its COVID-19 death statistics last week, revealing that the agency had included an additional 72, 277 deaths that should not have been counted as COVID-19 deaths. The change impacted 26 states and all age groups. The CDC explained in a footnote that the overcount stemmed from a “coding logic error.” With a total of about 969,000 deaths from COVID-19, the extra deaths compose about 7.5% of that number. 416 extra pediatric COVID-19 deaths also represent a significant revision from the initial data. This is without question the most important number of the COVID pandemic, and yet it's been shrouded in secrecy. We still don't know how many Americans died "from" COVID as opposed to died "with" COVID, and the CDC is apparently not even confident in the numbers they have given us. If the federal government can't count COVID deaths honestly, why do we believe they can control the healthcare system or run the economy? Time and again, they've shown themselves to be woefully incompetent at "running" the country. And yet, they continue their march towards greater and greater power.
Coronavirus dashboard for April 5: BA.2 likely only causes a ripple; and on track for record low daily deaths --This is a good time to look at the impact – or, better speaking, the lack thereof – of the BA.2 Omicron variant in the US. Nationwide the 7 day average was 28,961 yesterday: This is the lowest since last July, and lower than all but about 3.5 months since the end of March 2020. Only late spring 2020 and from mid-May through mid-July 2021 were lower. In other words, on a national level, there is no BA.2 wave whatsoever yet. The above graph comes from The NY Times because the State of Kentucky decided to make an enormous data dump yesterday (like 190,000 cases and 2900 deaths!) yesterday, which is ruining the comparisons on my typical data source, 91-Divoc. Omitting the South (and so KY), here are the regional breakdowns in cases, as well as NY, NJ, and MA, 3 of the States in the Northeast where there *has* been something of a BA.2 wave: Note that for the Northeast as a whole, and NY in particular, cases are beginning to level off after 3 weeks. I mention this because the BA.2 wave in Europe has set the pattern for BA.2 impacts. Below are cases in the 5 big countries in Europe, as well as the EU as a whole: The BA.2 waves started between the end of February through the first week in March. In every country but Germany, they have already peaked. And Germany is misleading because they had a data dump 6 days ago. Without it, cases there would only be where they were 2 weeks ago. In other words, in Europe BA.2 waves, where they occurred, have only lasted 2.5-3.5 weeks. Further, in Europe, the BA.2 waves generally peaked once the variant reached the level of 80%-90% of all cases. With that in mind, here is today’s update from the CDC of variance prevalence in the US, showing that BA.2 is not 72% of all cases, having risen about 15% in each of the past two weeks: And here their map of the regional breakdown: BA.2 makes up 75% of all cases on the West Coast (where there has been no discernible wave whatsoever) and 84% in the Northeast (New England + NY and NJ). The Northeast is going to hit 90% or more BA.2 prevalence within a week. Above I mentioned that cases in the Northeast look like they are beginning to level off. I expect a peak to be obvious there within a week to 10 days. The rest of the country is probably about one or two weeks behind that. Turning to hospitalization admissions, they are at their lowest level ever during the pandemic, averaging 10,744/day during the past week: And finally, here are deaths, currently averaging 604: This is the lowest level since last August, and lower than all but 4 months of the past two years. In conclusion, it now looks nearly certain that, on a national level, at worst there is going to be just a BA.2 ripple, and maybe just a long tail of a very slow decline from 30,000 cases daily. Further, while deaths have declined at a far slower rate than cases, because cases are down over 96% from their Omicron high, and at peak there were only 2600 deaths a day from Omicron, a 96% decline in deaths would take us down to only about 100 per day. And because victims are typically hospitalized before they succumb, and hospitalizations are at new record lows, this further supports the hypothesis that we are perhaps only a month away from a new record low in daily deaths from COVID.
The five states with the highest number of COVID-19 cases -The rate of new COVID-19 cases is at the lowest it’s been since last summer as the omicron wave subsides. As state governments have begun to move past pandemic-era restrictions, some health experts have said that another surge is unlikely until at least the fall and winter of this year, and are hopeful new cases will continue dropping throughout the summer.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 95 percent of the country currently has low COVID-19 community levels. While case rates remain low across the country, a handful of states still have elevated risk levels. Here are the five states with the highest levels of new cases per 100,000:
- 1) Alaska Cases per 100,000: 26.2 Alaska currently has the highest rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the U.S., according to the nonprofit Covid Act Now’s real time case tracker. Its positivity test rate is also the highest among U.S. states.However, hospitalizations in the state have remained relatively low at 4.3 per 100,000.Roughly 62 percent of the state’s population is fully vaccinated, while a little over a quarter of residents have received a booster shot. This week, the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services began updating its COVID-19 data dashboard once a week, down from the usual three updates weekly.
- 2) Vermont Cases per 100,000: 24.3 While Vermont is among the states with the highest rate of COVID-19 cases, it also among the top five states when it comes to vaccination rates. It is also among the lowest for hospitalizations, with 2.1 per 100,000.According to the Vermont Department of Health, 81 percent of the state’s eligible population is fully vaccinated and nearly half of the more than 640,000 residents have received a booster dose.
- 3) Rhode Island. Cases per 100,000: 20.3 Rhode Island, like its fellow New England states, boasts a high vaccination rate — the highest in the U.S. in fact, according to COVID Act Now’s tracker. About 82 percent of the state’s population is fully vaccinated and around 43 percent is boosted.The Ocean State’s hospitalization rate is also relatively at 4.5 per 100,000.
- 4) Colorado Cases per 100,000: 18.7 While Colorado’s rate of new COVID-19 cases is higher than many other states, its hospitalization rate has remained low, two points below the U.S. average.This past week, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment announced it wasshutting down 40 of its 150 community COVID-19 testing sites across the state, as it transitioned to the White House’s “Test To Treat” initiative. The majority of the testing sites will close down at the end of April.The agency’s lab director, Emily Travanty, said, “We took careful consideration of community needs and capacity demand in determining the schedule of site closures.”
- 5) New York Cases per 100,000: 18.5 New York currently has a hospitalization rate of 5.8 per 100,000, making it among the top ten states in terms of hospitalizations.While the rate of new cases has remained fairly low, a slight uptick has been observed in the past few weeks, with the seven-day average positivity rate rising by about two percentage points since mid-March. The number of new cases per 100,000 has also doubled in that same time period from about 8 to 18.As The New York Times reported, a rise in cases in New York City is possibly being driven by the spread of the BA.2 “stealth” omicron variant. Health experts have said that the U.S. will likely see an uptick in cases due to the BA.2 strain, though a surge like those caused by the delta and omicron variants is unlikely.
What's going on?' Wastewater samples may signal COVID increase — Wastewater reports and hospitalization rates locally and in nearby areas such as Boston may be be mirroring an increase in COVID cases seen in the United Kingdom several weeks ago.In a series of tweets Tuesday, Dr. Nirav Shah, director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, encouraged Mainers to do all they can to prepare for an increase in numbers and make a plan in case they do catch COVID-19. The most recent wastewater surveillance results showed "uniform increases in viral levels across the state," Shah said, in part. And hospitalizations of people with COVID-19 are up from 91 people on March 23, 2022, to 104 people on Tuesday. Shah noted that the number isn't close to the Jan. 13, 2022, peak of 436 people hospitalized patients with COVID-19, and added, "testing metrics do not show a measurable increase ... yet." Still, the trends prompted him to ask, "What's going on?" "It's too early to tell if these data points are signals or noise," he said. "It surely seems like it's coming. It's kind of like Keith telling us what the weather's going to be like a week from tomorrow," Maine CDC spokesman Robert Long said of NEWS CENTER Maine Meteorologist Keith Carson. "He probably has a pretty good idea. As much as we'd love to see indicators that Maine is going to be spared, we weren't spared Omicron, we weren't spared Delta." "People should act as if it's coming," Long said. "What that means is, get your booster. If you're eligible for a second booster, get that. Have tests on hand. And think about making a plan to get access to Paxlovid or some of the other therapeutics if you get COVID, because they are, by all accounts, amazingly effective at reducing your risk of getting really sick." Long encouraged Mainers to take the time now to find out how to get access to antiviral medications and other treatments, so if they do get sick, they have a ready course to a treatment. He said doing so is particularly important for people who are older or with a compromised immune system. "Call your doctor now and find out what to do to get them so you're not trying to figure that out when you're sick," he said. "And get your shots."
Rise in COVID levels: Massachusetts’ wastewater samples show increase, as virus’ upward tick in March continues - Wastewater samples taken in Boston are showing a steady uptick of COVID-19 in communities nearby the city. After falling significantly from the peak of the pandemic in January, the rate of COVID spread across Massachusetts turned upward in mid-March. The state averaged roughly 1,000 new cases each day before this past weekend, up from roughly 600 per day three weeks ago, Department of Public Health data shows. The presence of the coronavirus in untreated wastewater has proved in the past to be an early indicator of the trend of the virus. By testing samples taken from wastewater treatment plants, public health officials can determine if more people are flushing traces of the virus down the drain. Wastewater testing also does not rely on people’s access to health care, willingness to see a doctor, or ability to find a COVID test, the CDC said. Samples taken at the Deer Island Treatment Plant in Boston Harbor began to hint at a rise in COVID cases in mid-March. At the same time, cases were ticking up across the state. Wastewater samples taken in Boston show a rise in COVID-19 levels near the city, according to the Massachusetts Water Resource Authority. The wastewater data has since shown levels of the virus’ presence comparable to mid-February, according to the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. Levels of COVID in the wastewater and in the state’s reported cases still remain no far lower than January levels.
Wastewater surveillance shows COVID-19 increasing in parts of Utah - In this new “steady state” phase of COVID-19 in Utah, surveillance of the virus in our wastewater has become an even more important tool. The Utah Department of Health has kept a close eye on trends with the virus even when fewer people are getting tested. Each flush of the toilet provides COVID-19 data in our communities. Since this tool was first developed two years ago, wastewater surveillance of COVID-19 has become an early warning system. Right now, three Utah sample sites are showing increases in COVID-19 that the program manager is watching closely.“It provides a really efficient pool sample, especially for diseases where there may not be other great surveillance data that is available at all.” Utah and many other states are regularly monitoring COVID-19 in wastewater. Infected people shed the virus in their waste, and concentrations are measured in sewage samples at the inlet of 42 treatment plants statewide. That data provides an indicator of COVID-19 infection trends. “We are testing, by our estimation, 88% of the state’s population twice per week. That’s just not possible using something like individual tests. You just can’t get that sort of coverage, said LaCross. Right now, the program manager said COVID-19 is in the low range statewide with the exception of eight sites trending up. At five of those sites, overall numbers remain low. At the treatment plants in Moab and Park City, he believes they are seeing higher concentrations due to travelers moving through those communities. “We’re out of winter now. We’re into spring. There’s more population movement. There’s more people going out and traveling,” LaCross said. So, there are more opportunities to spread the virus. “Covid isn’t gone,” he said. “It’s still there. So, my suspicion is that we’re just seeing increased transmission due to increased population movement and contact.”
Wastewater is filling the COVID-19 data gap - The Globe and Mail –podcast - COVID-19′s sixth wave is here. Quebec’s institute of public health says the sixth wave began in mid-March. On Monday, Ontario premier Doug Ford said the province is in the midst of a “little spike” but that it’s manageable. Hospitalizations are up by about 30 per cent since the week before. And in Alberta, the province’s Health Minister Jason Copping acknowledged an uptick in case positivity rate. With PCR tests not as widely available as they once were, scientists and public health officials have found another way to track COVID-19: wastewater, or sewage. Dr. Lawrence Goodridge is a professor of food microbiology at the University of Guelph who is leading a team of people testing wastewater. He’s part of Ontario’s wastewater Surveillance Initiative which samples 170 locations across the province accounting for more than 75 per cent of the population. He tells us what the samples are telling him right now, and why this tool is an important one for this pandemic and for the future.
Highlighting COVID-19 racial disparities can reduce support for safety precautions among White U.S. residents –Abstract: U.S. media has extensively covered racial disparities in COVID-19 infections and deaths, which may ironically reduce public concern about COVID-19. In two preregistered studies (conducted in the fall of 2020), we examined whether perceptions of COVID-19 racial disparities predict White U.S. residents’ attitudes toward COVID-19. Utilizing a correlational design (N = 498), we found that those who perceived COVID-19 racial disparities to be greater reported reduced fear of COVID-19, which predicted reduced support for COVID-19 safety precautions. In Study 2, we manipulated exposure to information about COVID-19 racial disparities (N = 1,505). Reading about the persistent inequalities that produced COVID-19 racial disparities reduced fear of COVID-19, empathy for those vulnerable to COVID-19, and support for safety precautions. These findings suggest that publicizing racial health disparities has the potential to create a vicious cycle wherein raising awareness reduces support for the very policies that could protect public health and reduce disparities.During oral debates over the legality of Wisconsin's shelter-in-place order in May 2020, Governor Evers cited the 1,200% increase in COVID-19 cases within two weeks in one county. Wisconsin Supreme Court Chief Justice Roggensack interjected, arguing that the increase was isolated to the meatpacking plant and that it was not “just regular folks” (Flynn, 2020). Thus, the Chief Justice dismissed the outbreak among meatpacking plant workers (who are predominantly people of color) as irrelevant to the debate. U.S. media began reporting on the dramatic racial disparities in COVID-19 infection and mortality rates—resulting from structural inequalities, persistent racial health disparities, and overrepresentation of people of color among essential workers—in April of 2020 (Akhtar, 2020;APM Research Lab Staff, 2021; Hawkins, 2020; Jewett, 2020; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, & Medicine, 2017; Nguyen et al., 2020). Publicizing these racial disparities has the potential to establish cognitive associations between COVID-19 and people of color, which, from a social psychological perspective, could have unintended consequences. The current work aimed to examine how White U.S. residents' perceptions of COVID-19 racial disparities relate to their fear of COVID-19 and support for COVID-19 safety precautions. We propose that describing COVID-19 as disproportionately impacting people of color may lessen White U.S. residents' concerns about COVID-19.
People in poor counties died from COVID at nearly twice the rate of richer ones: study Poorer counties in the U.S. reported coronavirus death rates nearly double those in wealthier ones, a new report out Monday showed. Counties with the most people living in poverty had death rates nearly 1.5 times the rates in those with the fewest number of people living under 200 percent of the poverty line, according to the Poor People’s Campaign analysis, “A Poor People’s Pandemic Report: : Mapping the Intersection of Poverty, Race and COVID-19.” Those low-income counties saw death rates nearly five times higher than their wealthier counterparts during COVID-19 case spikes fueled by the delta variant, and nearly three times higher during the omicron variant spikes. Overall, the report noted that the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus was higher than any other high-income country. The income and wealth information about people who have died in the pandemic has not been collected in a systematic way, the group says, which is why the report sought to use county-level demographics. Other research surrounding COVID-19 in low-income counties does exist, including an analysis last year that found just 1 percent of people in low-income countries were vaccinated against COVID-19 at the time of the study. At the same time, 51 percent of people in high-income countries had received at least one dose of the vaccine. Now, in the pandemic’s third year, the U.S. has recorded nearly 1 million COVID-19 deaths and over 80 million cases, according to the Coronavirus Resource Center at Johns Hopkins University.
COVID-19 deaths escalate across the Pacific - Thousands of COVID-19 cases, including of the virulent Omicron strain, which gained a foothold in Pacific nations in January, are continuing to be recorded across the region. Tonga, Samoa, American Samoa, and Vanuatu all recently recorded their first COVID-related deaths. The Pacific islands, which saw virtually no infections in 2020–2021 due to their geographic isolation, small populations and strict border controls, are now battling outbreaks—even as local governments end restrictions in line with the global drive to open borders and economies at the expense of public health measures. Health experts and aid organisations fear the virus could be devastating to the impoverished countries, made more vulnerable by fragile health care systems and high rates of noncommunicable diseases, such as diabetes and heart disease. In Tonga, COVID-19 infections are continuing to climb as the kingdom reels from the destructive January 15 volcanic eruption and tsunami. Prime Minister Hu’akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni has recently been in self-isolation, along with half the cabinet, after testing positive for COVID. On March 21, the government imposed a week of new lockdown rules after health authorities recorded a total of 1,819 active cases and the country’s first 2 deaths, a figure which has now risen to 6. Some COVID victims initially had their deaths attributed to other illnesses. Before this year, Tonga, with a population of 105,000, had recorded just one COVID-19 case. By April 1 there were 6,423. The outbreak began with two port workers unloading ships bringing in aid to the capital Nuku’alofa following the eruption. The Australian navy vessel, HMAS Adelaide, had reported 23 of its crew were infected with the virus when it arrived on January 26, but the ship has not been confirmed as the source. A lockdown in early February was eased by the government, allowing the virus to spread. Now a daily average of 229 new infections are being recorded. Tonga has administered 147,193 doses of COVID vaccines, enough to have vaccinated just 70.4 percent of the population. At the current rate, it will take a further 80 days to cover the next 10 percent of the population. This does not include booster doses needed to counter the Omicron variant.
China reports 2,129 new COVID cases for April 1 vs 1,827 a day earlier (Reuters) - Mainland China reported 2,129 new COVID-19 cases on April 1, up from 1,827 cases a day earlier, the country's national health authority said on Saturday.The National Health Commission said in a statement 2,086 of the new cases were local infections, compared with 1,787 a day earlier.The number of new asymptomatic cases, which China does not classify as confirmed cases, rose to 7,869 from 5,559.Among them, the country's financial hub of Shanghai reported 6,051 asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and 260 symptomatic cases for April 1, according to the city government.The total of confirmed COVID cases in mainland China stands at 153,232, while the death toll remained 4,638.
Robot dog with loudspeaker barks COVID instructions in China --A robot dog carrying a loudspeaker broadcasted pandemic safety measures in a residential community in eastern China.Video filmed in Shanghai City on March 29 shows the robot dog carrying a loudspeaker broadcasting messages on how to keep safe during the pandemic.The robodog was heard telling residents to “wear a mask, wash hands frequently, check temperature” and more safety instructions. A resident sunbathing nearby said he thought it was a drone but later realized it was a robot dog. He felt it was very fancy as he has never seen it before. The video was provided by local media with permission.
UK COVID infections rise massively after end of mitigation measures -A conspiracy of silence between the Conservative government and the Labour Party is covering up an unprecedented spread of coronavirus in the UK. Officially recorded infections have always significantly underestimated the prevalence of the virus. Now, however, the government’s “living with COVID” policy, including the scrapping of universal free testing, self-isolation, and sick pay support, has rendered the daily figures next to useless. A real picture is only available once a week when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes its coronavirus infection survey. The latest report shows 4.9 million people had infections in the week to March 26—up 600,000 on the week before and a record since the survey began in April 2020. According to the ZOE COVID Symptom Study run by King’s College London, whose funding is threatened, 333,000 people are catching the virus every day. Infection rates are so high that workplace and school absences due to self-isolation are increasing, despite the Johnson government’s efforts to force people to stay on the job. The most up-to-date data from the Department for Education reveals that 202,000 pupils were off school March 17 due to the virus, triple the number two weeks prior. Another 108,000 staff were absent, 9.1 percent, up from 5.8 percent two weeks earlier. COVID absence rates range between 2-3 percent in the food and agriculture, transport and logistics, and manufacturing and construction sectors; 2-4 percent in hospitality, retail, health, education, and social care; and 3-4 percent in the civil service, IT, finance, and arts and recreation. A construction executive told the Financial Times the virus is “spreading like wildfire… people are working as they need the money and reinfecting each other”. Absences in the National Health Service have risen by 86 percent in three weeks since the week ending March 6, according to the BMJ. They increased in acute care trusts by more than a fifth last week. International travel is also affected, with scores of flights cancelled yesterday and today due to shortages of airport and airline workers. There were over 1,100 cancellations between March 28 and April 3, over five times the amount for that period in a normal year. The surge in cases which began among children and younger adults is now passing into the older and more at-risk age groups. An estimated 6.6 percent of the over 70s were infected with the disease during the period of the most recent ONS survey (a record), up from 5 percent a week before. Among the 50-69 age group, the rate increased from 5.6 percent to 7.2 percent.
Russian Health Ministry registers world’s first nasal spray coronavirus vaccine -TASS. The world’s first nasal spray coronavirus vaccine has been registered in Russia, the Health Ministry said in a statement on Friday. "The Russian Health Ministry has registered the nasal spray form of the Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V) coronavirus vaccine developed by the Health Ministry’s Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology," the statement reads. According to the ministry, the vaccine consists of two components based on the type 16 and type 5 adenovirus vectors. The two doses will be administered with an interval of three weeks. This kind of vaccination creates mucosal immunity against the coronavirus within the respiratory tract. "The use of a nasal spray induces a humoral immune response (boosting IgA antibody titers in the blood and nasal secretions and virus-neutralizing IgG antibody titers in the blood) and a cellular immune response to the infection caused by SARS-CoV-2," the statement added. At this point, the vaccine is intended for the immunization of individuals over the age of 18. Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said earlier that the use of the nasal spray coronavirus vaccine would be included in recommendations for booster shots.
Are Toxoplasma-infected subjects more attractive, symmetrical, or healthier than non-infected ones? Evidence from subjective and objective measurements - Parasites are among the main factors that negatively impact the health and reproductive success of organisms. However, if parasites diminish a host’s health and attractiveness to such an extent that finding a mate becomes almost impossible, the parasite would decrease its odds of reproducing and passing to the next generation. There is evidence that Toxoplasma gondii(T. gondii) manipulates phenotypic characteristics of its intermediate hosts to increase its spread. However, whether T. gondii manipulates phenotypic characteristics in humans remains poorly studied. Therefore, the present research had two main aims: (1) To compare traits associated with health and parasite resistance in Toxoplasma-infected and non-infected subjects. (2) To investigate whether other people perceive differences in attractiveness and health between Toxoplasma-infected and non-infected subjects of both sexes. Results: First, we found that infected men had lower facial fluctuating asymmetry whereas infected women had lower body mass, lower body mass index, a tendency for lower facial fluctuating asymmetry, higher self-perceived attractiveness, and a higher number of sexual partners than non-infected ones. Then, we found that infected men and women were rated as more attractive and healthier than non-infected ones. Our results suggest that some sexually transmitted parasites, such as T. gondii, may produce changes in the appearance and behavior of the human host, either as a by-product of the infection or as the result of the manipulation of the parasite to increase its spread to new hosts. Taken together, these results lay the foundation for future research on the manipulation of the human host by sexually transmitted pathogens and parasites.
EPA upholds Trump decision not to regulate chemical linked to fetal brain damage | The Hill The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Thursday that it will uphold a Trump-era decision not to regulate a chemical used in rocket fuel that may be tied to fetal brain damage. The EPA said in a statement that it would not regulate perchlorate in drinking water, saying the Trump administration’s decision was based on the “best available peer reviewed science.” Perchlorate can disrupt the function of the thyroid gland, which can lead to developmental issues in children. But, in 2020, the Trump administration determined that the substance “does not meet the criteria for regulation as a drinking water contaminant” under the Safe Drinking Water Act. When he first took office, President Biden announced a review of the Trump-era decision not to regulate perchlorate. His a dministration’s decision to uphold its predecessor’s policy signifies a reversal of an Obama-era determination that the chemical does meet the criteria for regulation. Environmental and public health groups have urged the regulation of perchlorate. In 2019, the American Academy of Pediatrics urged the EPA to set the “strongest possible” limits for the substance due to its potential impacts. “When fetuses are exposed during pregnancy, perchlorate endangers a child’s development. Children born with even mild, subclinical deficiencies in thyroid function may have lower IQs, higher chances of being diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and visuospatial difficulties,” the organization wrote at the time. While the Biden administration is not pursuing regulations, it did say it would take other actions aimed at tackling perchlorate, including research into perchlorate levels in bodies of water after fireworks displays.
Scientists sound alarm at US regulator’s new ‘forever chemicals’ definition -The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) department responsible for protecting the public from toxic substances is working under a new definition of PFAS “forever chemicals” that excludes some of their widely used compounds. The new “working definition”, established by the Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics, is not only at odds with much of the scientific world, but is narrower than that used by other EPA departments. Among other uses, the narrower definition excludes chemicals in pharmaceuticals and pesticides that are generally defined as PFAS. The EPA also cited the narrower definition in December when it declined to take action on some PFAS contamination found in North Carolina. PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are a class of about 12,000 compounds most frequently used to make products water-, stain- and grease-resistant. They are in thousands of products across dozens of industries, and have been linked to cancer, birth defects, decreased immunity, high cholesterol, kidney disease and a range of other serious health problems. They are dubbed “forever chemicals” due to their longevity in the environment. The discussion within the EPA comes as the agency faces increased pressure to largely restrict the entire chemical class, and critics say the change benefits chemical manufacturers, the Department of Defense and industry. “There’s a real difference in the definition that industry uses and what the international scientific community uses, and, unfortunately, the definition I see the EPA toxics office using is a lot more like industry’s,” said Linda Birnbaum, a former EPA scientist and head of the National Toxicology Program. An EPA official who spoke with the Guardian on the condition of anonymity said the new definition was developed about a year ago and discussions over it were ongoing. The issue comes to light as the EPA’s new chemicals division managers face whistleblower charges that allege management altered risk assessments to make PFAS appear less toxic. The EPA didn’t immediately respond to questions, but an agency document obtained by the Guardian states the new definition “focuses on PFAS believed to be of highest concern based on their persistence and potential for presence in the environment and human exposure”. Researchers say the international scientific community has been engaged in a debate over how to define PFAS that’s focused on chemical structure. PFAS are called “forever chemicals” because their fluorinated atoms prevent them from fully breaking down. The most widely used, inclusive definition, and that proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), defines any chemical with one fluorinated carbon atom as a PFAS. That could include tens of thousands of chemicals on the market. The EPA toxics office, however, wrote a “working definition” that calls for “at least two adjacent carbon atoms, where one carbon is fully fluorinated and the other is at least partially fluorinated”. It covers about 6,500 PFAS, and the EPA is using that definition in its recently introduced “national testing strategy”, which serves as a road map in its attempt to rein in PFAS pollution. Beyond chemicals in pesticides and pharmaceuticals, the narrower definition excludes some refrigerants and PFAS gases. Some of the excluded PFAS compounds turn into highly toxic chemicals, like PFOA and PFOS, as they break down in the environment or are metabolized by the human body. And the production of some excluded PFAS requires the use of other more dangerous PFAS compounds. “How do you say something is not PFAS when it becomes PFAS after it is metabolized by the body or undergoes changes in the environment – that just doesn’t hold with me,” Birnbaum said. The definition debate also partly centers on the chemicals’ “persistence”. The vast majority of chemicals with a fully fluorinated carbon atom will not fully break down, and some of those compounds are accumulating at concerning levels throughout the planet, noted Ian Cousins, a Stockholm University PFAS researcher who has co-authored papers on the topic. “The levels are increasing but toxicity is low, so should we be concerned?” he asked. “I say ‘Yes’, because we shouldn’t be releasing substances … that increase in the environment and eventually we may find a problem when it’s too late to reverse.”
CRISPR: US biofirm plans to gene-edit cats so they don’t trigger allergies A US company has deleted the genes for the allergy-causing protein in cat cells as a first step towards creating cats that don't trigger allergies The two genes for the protein mainly responsible for allergic reactions to cats have been deleted from cat cells using CRISPR gene editing. It is a first step towards creating hypoallergenic cats, says US-based company InBio. “The estimated timeline for this is several years,” says Nicole Brackett, who leads the CRISPR cat team at InBio. About 15 per cent of people have allergic reactions to cats. The main cause of this is a small protein called Fel d 1 that is secreted by salivary and skin glands. It is spread over cats’ fur when felines clean themselves and can become airborne as the fur dries. What, if anything, Fel d 1 does for cats isn’t known. All cats produce Fel d 1, but a 2019 study found that levels in saliva vary greatly among typical domestic cats. It is often claimed that some specific breeds are less likely to trigger allergies, but no scientific studies have confirmed this.
Avian flu outbreaks in U.S. take more than 22.8 million birds in 24 states, so far | Food Safety News - USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported on Monday about a worsening Avian influenza crisis in the United States. APHIS reports that more than 22.8 million birds have had to be put to death in the past two months because of the influenza Type A virus (influenza A).The disease is reported in 118 flocks, including 46 backyards and 72 commercial flocks in 24 states. To view a list of birds identified by date and state, click here.Only one human infection is reported worldwide in a person who works with a large number of domestically kept birds in the United Kingdom. That person tested positive for avian flu, but was asymptomatic and is no longer considered infectious by the World Health Organization. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the risk of infection among humans is low. The agency notes that those working with birds or exposed to them in the wild are at a higher risk of infection than the general public.Wild birds spread avian flu around the world, especially in major flyways with their droppings. The wild ducks and geese may show no signs of the illness. Scientists, however, have tracked the virus to poultry barns, equipment, and people who work with birds, along with mice, small birds, and ground dust.The record for avian flu in the United States was set in 2014-15 when 50 million chickens and turkeys were put to death at 200 poultry farms in 15 states. The disease in 2014-15 cost the poultry industry $3 billion and required another $1 billion in federal spending.Egg and poultry prices jumped then and are doing so again.Properly cooked poultry and eggs remain safe to eat. Birds are removed from the food chain as soon as are positive for avian flu. The culling protocols are quick and aggressive.Because 9 billion broilers are raised every year, industry experts do not expect this round of avian flu to have too much impact on production or prices. About 3 percent of egg-laying chickens are impacted by the flu.More detailed information on U.S. avian flu outbreaks, including the number of flocks and birds infected, can be found here.
Highly contagious avian flu strain detected in Central Ohio chicken flock | WYSO - A highly contagious avian flu strain was recently detected in a backyard flock of 15 chickens in Franklin County. That’s according to the Ohio Department of Agriculture — which helped confirm the virus in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.The H5N1 avian flu strain has been spreading throughout the midwest in recent months. It was first detected in early 2022. It’s currently been detected at nearly 100 sites across 21 states on the eastern half of the U.S., according to the USDA.The virus can infect poultry such as chicken, turkeys, quail or domestic ducks and can be fatal. It’s typically spread by migratory patterns of waterfowls such as ducks and geese.As the wild birds fly across U.S. states, they might be carrying the virus and spreading it through their droppings, according to Dennis Summers, the state veterinarian with the Ohio Department of Agriculture.Avian flu strains aren’t new, the last major outbreak — which was also the countries largest — happened between 2014 and 2015. Over 50 million poultry birds were impacted. It was a similar strain to the H5N1.Summers said it’s concerning when viruses like these spread to commercial poultry barns, which can be devastating to farmers and supply chains.“It can spread relatively quickly,” Summers said. “If we can't control the spread of the virus within the commercial industry, it affects everything from potentially the price of your eggs and poultry products at the supermarket to international trade.”Summers added state authorities take aggressive measures to mitigate the spread, typically by depopulating barns with infected poultry.Although the virus can be fatal to birds, the virus is of low risk to humans, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Some rare cases of human illnesses have been reported, but the CDC indicates it’s typically from prolonged exposure to sick or dying poultry.“Luckily right now, there's no indication that this current strain poses any significant risk to human health populations, at least here in the U.S. That risk is still considerably low.” Summers said.For backyard chickens or turkeys, state and federal agencies recommend the birds be brought indoors in a coop or other enclosure, keep visitors to a minimum and to avoid contact with wild birds.Summers said backyard birds with symptoms such as loss of appetite, decreased egg production, swelling or even an unusual number of dead birds, warrants a call to state authorities, which can then have the birds tested.
Avian flu detected in dozens of geese found dead in NH - Dozens of geese have been found dead in New Hampshire after contracting avian flu.Just a few weeks ago, dozens of birds in Derry had to be euthanized after avian flu was detected at an animal sanctuary.On Wednesday, New Hampshire Fish and Game Department said at least 70 wild geese tested positive for avian flu.They were found dead in the area of the Bellamy River in Dover over the course of several weeks in late February and early March.Two months ago, Fish and Game said 46 mallards in Rockingham county and 3 other ducks in Grafton county also had this strain of the virus. “It's not unusual to find different strains of avian influenza and we've documented that in the past, but this is the first time we've documented a highly pathogenic form," Fish and Game Wildlife Division Chief Dan Bergeron said.The risk to humans is low, as Fish and Game Department officials said they mostly see bird flu among people who work closely with the animals.The threat is usually greater to domestic poultry.“If you can keep your birds separated from particularly waterfowl, that goes a long way in protecting them. If anybody has sick birds that they're observing, if they're domestic, they would want to contact State Department of Agriculture,” Bergeron said.Fish and Game Department leaders said they can't test every dead bird that gets reported to them. Instead, they will test if it's unusual or if there's a large group of animals that dies.
Zoos are moving birds indoors to protect them from avian flu - Zoos across North America are moving their birds indoors and away from people and wildlife as they try to protect them from the highly contagious and potentially deadly avian influenza. Penguins may be the only birds visitors to many zoos can see right now, because they already are kept inside and usually protected behind glass in their exhibits, making it harder for the bird flu to reach them. Nearly 23 million chickens and turkeys have already been killed across the United States to limit the spread of the virus, and zoos are working hard to prevent any of their birds from meeting the same fate. It would be especially upsetting for zoos to have to kill any of the endangered or threatened species in their care. "It would be extremely devastating," said Maria Franke, who is the manager of welfare science at Toronto Zoo, which has less than two dozen Loggerhead Shrike songbirds that it's breeding with the hope of reintroducing them into the wild. "We take amazing care and the welfare and well being of our animals is the utmost importance. There's a lot of staff that has close connections with the animals that they care for here at the zoo."Toronto Zoo workers are adding roofs to some outdoor bird exhibits and double-checking the mesh surrounding enclosures to ensure it will keep wild birds out. Birds shed the virus through their droppings and nasal discharge. Experts say it can be spread through contaminated equipment, clothing, boots and vehicles carrying supplies. Research has shown that small birds that squeeze into zoo exhibits or buildings can also spread the flu, and that mice can even track it inside. So far, no outbreaks have been reported at zoos, but there have been wild birds found dead that had the flu. For example, a wild duck that died in a behind-the-scenes area of the Blank Park Zoo in Des Moines, Iowa, after tornadoes last month tested positive, zoo spokesman Ryan Bickel said. Most of the steps zoos are taking are designed to prevent contact between wild birds and zoo animals. In some places, officials are requiring employees to change into clean boots and don protective gear before entering bird areas.
Avian flu losses reach 1 million in South Dakota - More than a one million turkeys have euthanized because of avian flu in South Dakota, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The state has lost about 420,000 turkeys since April 1, according to the USDA. Those are commercial flocks or commercial breeder flocks at nine sites in eight different counties. The birds are euthanized to stop the spread of avian flu. The 420,000 euthanized since April 1 adds to roughly 800,000 turkeys already euthanized because of avian flu since March 5. At one million birds, South Dakota has had about one-third of all the turkeys lost to avian flu. Beth Breeding of the National Turkey Federation (NTF) said as of April 7, “a little over three million birds” had been lost to avian flu. Some states have been more affected than others, she said. “It certainly would be a devastating outcome for any farm experiencing this,” Breeding said. The spread could continue in South Dakota and other states as the migration of waterfowl continues. Waterfowl are spreading much of avian flu. “If a farm hasn’t had it, you are just kind of waiting for it to happen,” Breeding said. The nation is still in the heart of wild bird migration, she said. “It’s an issue we’re tracking,” Breeding said. It’s too soon to determine if the 2022 impact will be as large as in 2015, Breeding said. The roughly three million birds already lost represents about 1.5% of the total population, she said. “In 2015, around 3.4% of our annual production was impacted,” Breeding said. The USDA reported that four million turkeys were expected to be produced in South Dakota in 2021. According to the South Dakota Poultry Industries Association, there are an average of five million turkeys raised each year.
Bird flu's grisly question: how to kill millions of poultry - The spread of a bird flu that is deadly to poultry raises the grisly question of how farms manage to quickly kill and dispose of millions of chickens and turkeys. It's a chore that farms across the country are increasingly facing as the number of poultry killed in the past two months has climbed to more than 24 million, with outbreaks reported nearly every day. Some farms have had to kill more than 5 million chickens at a single site with a goal of destroying the birds within 24 hours to limit the spread of the disease and prevent animals from suffering. “The faster we can get on site and depopulate the birds that remain on site, the better,” Minnesota State Veterinarian Beth Thompson said. The outbreak is the biggest since 2015, when producers had to kill more than 50 million birds. So far this year, there have been cases in 24 states, with Iowa the hardest hit with about 13 million chickens and turkeys killed. Other states with sizable outbreaks include Minnesota, Wisconsin, South Dakota and Indiana. Farms faced with the need to kill so many birds turn to recommendations by the American Veterinary Medical Association. Even as it has developed methods to kill the poultry quickly, the association acknowledges its techniques “may not guarantee that the deaths the animals face are painless and distress free.” Veterinarians and U.S. Department of Agriculture officials also typically oversee the process. One of the preferred methods is to spray water-based firefighting foam over birds as they roam around the ground inside a barn. That foam kills the animals by cutting off their air supply. When foam won't work because birds are in cages above the ground or it's too cold, the USDA recommends sealing up barns and piping carbon dioxide inside, first rendering the birds unconscious and ultimately killing them. If one those methods won't work because equipment or workers aren't available, or when the size of a flock is too large, the association said a last resort is a technique called ventilation shutdown. In that scenario, farmers stop airflow into barns, which raises temperatures to levels at which the animals die. The USDA and the veterinary association recommend that farmers add additional heat or carbon dioxide to barns to speed up the process and limit suffering by the animals.Animal welfare groups argue that all these methods for quickly killing birds are inhumane, though they are particularly opposed to ventilation shutdown, which they note can take hours and is akin to leaving a dog in a hot car. Animal rights groups delivered a petition last year signed by 3,577 people involved in caring for animals, including nearly 1,600 veterinarians, that urged the veterinary association to stop recommending ventilation shutdown as an option. “We have to do better. None of these are acceptable in any way,” said Sara Shields, director of farm animal welfare science at Humane Society International. Opponents of the standard techniques said firefighting foam uses harmful chemicals and it essentially drowns birds, causing chickens and turkeys to suffer convulsions and cardiac arrest as they die. They say carbon dioxide is painful to inhale and detectible by the birds, prompting them to try to flee the gas.
Poultry Epidemic Causing Pandemic Prices - - The avian influenza does not seem to be letting up with multiple states reporting cases, including Texas. Here is the current map of reported cases. The USDA and USGS have been doing a good job of tracking and confirming cases through APHIS, and the surprising news that has all of us in the poultry business worried is that this is a highly pathogenic virus that is transmitted through wild birds and domestic alike. Sparrows, crows, cardinals and other wild species enjoy getting into our grain bins, flying into or next to our coops, or for us pastured poultry people, birds will comingle. This leaves ample opportunity for birds to be within close proximity and very quickly spread the virus around. As migratory species start coming back from the tropics, it is likely to get worse. Biannual migration is happening in North America now: The outcome is that proteins, which are already having a hard year are about to get worse. The USDA and CDC mandate that poultry processors cull sick birds and to date we are already at 22.8 million birds.The state by state breakdown gives us the current hot spots. The record epidemic and last widespread avian flu event in 2014-2015 with an estimated 50 million chickens and turkeys culled caused prices to soar. This also effects the egg supply as well, which trails behind meat production by about four months. A chick hatched can be processed for food in 6-8 weeks, a hen will not laying eggs until about 6 months of age. The egg market is now up to pandemic start levels: Egg protein and milk protein are mainstays in diets around the world and simple shocks in these two bases can be hard for a population to absorb with rising inflationary pressures also in motion. For reference, my sales of eggs versus pastured broilers is about five to one. Some farms focus on just one or the other, we have done both. If we leaned heavily into the pastured broilers we might be able to make up ground between the two, but most will buy eggs for the versatility and price point. A whole broiler most folks don’t know how to part out and me parting, or my processor parting drives up the cost per bird significantly. Egg and milk proteins are also hard to turn back on once shut, as stated above, leaving the more expensive proteins as the only avaliable option for those struggling to put food on the table. Let’s take a look at the meat side of the equation. Poultry prices have spiked, not as high as early pandemic retail counter averages, but we are trending that way. Now about that Thanksgiving turkey, yes, that is something we have to consider now. Normally at this point in the year is when we start hatching and brooding out the November processing for the holidays. The good news there is that we started the year with production up quite a bit. If the trends hold through the year and the flu starts to wane through the summer and the majority of the commercial flocks stay intact, Thanksgiving turkey shouldn’t be an issue and potentially could be a bit cheaper this year. We will continue to watch the trends and numbers. Avian epidemics are not new and happen more often than we would like, but given the commercial trends and high output public demand for poultry, we are stuck in this quandary until radical market change happens by public demand. Short term meat trends: increased costs for consumers as we continue to cull and mitigate pathogenic spread. Long term production should rise to meet demand and bring prices down barring further issues both economically and epidemically. Christmas bird will be in the pot regardless.
Farm groups take fight for chlorpyrifos to Midwest court - A chemical company and 19 farm groups, including the American Farm Bureau, are suing in a Midwest federal appeals court to overturn the Environmental Protection Agency’s ban on the pesticide chlorpyrifos on all food crops. Gharda Chemicals International, the largest supplier of chlorpyrifos products in the U.S., and the farm groups claim the ban is too broad and that the EPA ignored its own science. They seek to at least keep the pesticide legal on 11 crops in select states, including strawberries in Oregon and apples, alfalfa, sugar beets in Idaho, Oregon and Washington. The EPA identified the crops and geographic areas in 2020, proposing to reduce exposure to chlorpyrifos by limiting the pesticide to “high-benefit” crops. The EPA estimated alternatives to chlorpyrifos would cost apple growers $51 an acre. Instead of narrowing uses, the EPA banned chlorpyrifos on all food, effective Feb. 28, capping a legal and scientific battle that began in 2007 when two advocacy groups petitioned the agency to ban the pesticide. Chlorpyrifos has been used in U.S. agriculture since 1965 and is registered for more than 50 uses. The suit argues EPA should have evaluated the uses separately. “If all tolerances must rise or fall together, EPA would have to revoke all tolerances for any pesticide every time it concluded an individual tolerance was unsafe. That makes no sense,” according to the lawsuit. Douglas County, Wash., tree fruit orchardist April Clayton said March 23 that her farm used chlorpyrifos to attack leafy hopper and mealybug, the insects that cause little cherry virus and Western X. Chlorpyrifos was used before bees were in the orchards or fruit was on the trees, she said. “This product isn’t actually going to be sprayed on the food,” she said. Chlorpyrifos rotated with other pesticides to keep the bugs from building up resistance, she said. “Losing this tool will be a burden,” she said. In response to the new lawsuit, the EPA said it didn’t have time to finalize its tentative proposal to confine chlorpyrifos to 11 crops. The agency was under a deadline set by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to ban chlorpyrifos or declare it safe. The EPA notes in court documents that the agricultural industry did not rush to embrace the 11-crop limit. Some groups, such as cranberry and banana farmers, wanted to be included, and no chemical company volunteered to cancel other uses, according to the EPA.
Invasive ants hit Texas hard – now a killer fungus is coming for them When crazy ants roll into new parts of Texas, the invasive species wipe out local insects and lizards, drive away birds, and even blind baby rabbits by spewing acid in their eyes. Scientists at the University of Texas at Austin now have good news: a naturally occurring fungus-like pathogen can be used to reverse their rampant spread across the southeastern United States, where they have wrought havoc for the past 20 years. The findings were described Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Ecologist and lead author Edward LeBrun told AFP that the fungus had already driven pockets of the invaders to extinction, and would soon be tested at environmentally-sensitive sites to protect endangered species. Like fire ants, whom they have displaced in parts of Texas, tawny crazy ants are native to Argentina and Brazil and came to the United States via ships. They are called "crazy" because of their erratic, jarring movements -- unlike the orderly marches of their cousin species. While they don't have the venomous bite of fire ants, they secrete formic acid that shields them against fire ant venom, and incapacitates native animals. "It's kind of a horror show," said LeBrun, who described apocalyptic rivers of ants swarming trees at an infestation site he visited at the Estero Llano Grande State Park, which had lost native ants, insects, scorpions, snakes, lizards and birds to the invaders. Not only are they destroying ecosystems, "they're miserable to live with" for humans, said LeBrun. The ants seek out electrical systems to nest in, causing shorts in breaker boxes, AC units and sewage pumps. Pesticides are highly toxic and serve only to slow their progress, leading to snowdrift piles of dead ants that have to be cleared, and the ants eventually break through anyway.
FWS' toad protections highlight threat from geothermal project - The Fish and Wildlife Service’s rarely used move to provide emergency protections for Nevada’s Dixie Valley toad illuminates the specific threats that agency scientists fear stem from a big geothermal energy project. In a dual announcement, the agency today initiated emergency Endangered Species Act protections that will cover the toad for 240 days starting tomorrow, while also starting the standard process for a permanent ESA listing. The move marks only the third time in the past 20 years that FWS has used its emergency ESA powers. In 2011, the Obama administration issued emergency protections for the Miami blue butterfly in Florida, and in 2002 the George W. Bush administration did the same for the California tiger salamander. California bighorn sheep, steller sea lions, the Sacramento River winter migration run of chinook salmon and the Mojave desert tortoise have likewise gained emergency protection to tide them over until FWS could impose permanent measures. What all the species have in common is the apparent imminence of a threat, which officials say in the case of the Dixie Valley toad comes from the Dixie Meadows Geothermal Utilization Project. “Although there is large uncertainty in the magnitude of expected changes from the approved project, there is a high degree of certainty that geothermal energy development will have severe and negative effects on the geothermal springs relied upon by the Dixie Valley toad,” FWS said today. The agency cited reductions in spring temperatures and spring flow, which directly affect the resource needs of the species. A reduction in spring flow could be exacerbated by droughts, while lower water temperatures could invite the dangerous chytrid fungus to become established. FWS recounted that geothermal pumping in other areas resulted in several springs to stop flowing, as well as declines in pressure of the geothermal reservoir. “Expert panelists concluded that the Dixie Meadows spring system will change quickly, and detrimentally, once geothermal energy production begins, with a median response time of roughly 4 years and a 90 percent chance that the largest magnitude changes will occur within 10 years,” FWS stated today.
EPA proposes ban on common type of asbestos - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Tuesday proposed a major step to limit exposure to asbestos, a carcinogen that kills 40,000 Americans each year. The EPA proposed to ban imports, manufacturing, processing and distribution of a type of asbestos called chrysotile asbestos. Chrysotile asbestos, the most commonly used type of asbestos, is found in car brakes and linings, gaskets and other products. In 1989, the agency tried to ban asbestos, but that was largely overturned in a 1991 court decision. The agency said in a statement that its new decision would “rectify” that ruling. The rule also stands in contrast with a Trump-era rule on asbestos that sought to require federal approval for any manufacture or import of certain products that use asbestos. The Trump rule received significant criticism from environmental and health advocates for stopping short of a ban. “Today, we’re taking an important step forward to protect public health and finally put an end to the use of dangerous asbestos in the United States,” said EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement on the agency’s latest action. “This historic proposed ban would protect the American people from exposure to chrysotile asbestos, a known carcinogen, and demonstrates significant progress in our work to implement the [Toxic Substances Control Act] law and take bold, long-overdue actions to protect those most vulnerable among us,” he said. Asbestos has been associated with respiratory issues including lung cancer; mesothelioma, a cancer that is found in the lining of the lungs and abdomen; and asbestosis, a lung disease.
EPA moves to ban the most common type of cancer-causing asbestos - The Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday proposed to ban chrysotile asbestos, the most common form of the toxic mineral still used in the United States. Also known as “white asbestos,” it has remained on the market despite decades of research showing that it is a deadly carcinogen, linked to about 40,000 U.S. deaths each year. Chlorine manufacturers and companies that make vehicle braking systems and sheet gaskets still import chrysotile asbestos and use it to manufacture new products. 10 steps you can take to lower your carbon footprint The proposed rule would ban all manufacturing, processing, importation and commercial distribution of six categories of products containing chrysotile asbestos, which agency officials said would cover all of its current uses in the United States. “This is a huge step forward,” said Betsy Southerland, who directed science and technology in the EPA’s Office of Water before retiring in 2017. “We finally are catching up with the rest of the world.” Advertisement Nearly 70 countries have banned asbestos, a group of six naturally occurring fibrous minerals. Resistant to heat and fire, they have been used in products as varied as home construction material and automotive parts, fabric, children’s toys and cosmetics. Their widespread use persists despite global scientific consensus that breathing in asbestos fibers is life-threatening and linked to lung cancer. There is even a name, “asbestosis,” for a chronic lung disease caused by inhaling asbestos fibers. Philip Landrigan, who directs Boston College’s global public health program, said fewer American workers are exposed to asbestos today than in the past. But for a few professions — primarily firefighters and maintenance workers who spend a lot of time in old buildings — it remains a significant threat. Advertisement “Every country around the world that has either banned or reduced asbestos has seen a fall in disease and death,” Landrigan said. However, the trade group representing the chlorine industry, the American Chemistry Council, blasted the proposal in a statement, noting that chrysotile asbestos is used by about a third of U.S. chlor-alkali plants that produce chlorine. Chlorine is used not only in nearly all public water-treatment systems, it added, but also in most pharmaceuticals and pesticides. “If enacted, EPA’s proposed rule would ban the manufacture of nearly one-third of chlorine and sodium hydroxide chemicals and have significant adverse effects on the supply of the nation’s drinking water,” the group said. “Additionally, EPA’s risk evaluation overestimated potential asbestos exposures, leading to its unjustified risk management proposal.” The EPA estimates that less than 7 percent of the chlorine in the public drinking water supply comes from facilities using asbestos technology. Most of the asbestos Americans have been exposed to is chrysotile, much of which used to come from Canadian mines until the last one shuttered in 2012. Russia now ranks as a major exporter.
Supreme Court halts ruling against Trump Clean Water Act rollback in 5-4 decision --The Supreme Court on Wednesday halted a prior court ruling that struck down a Trump-era rule limiting state and tribal authority to veto projects that could impact their waters, including pipelines. The Trump rule in question, which was nixed by a federal court in October, limited states’ authority to block projects by giving them a strict one-year time limit to do so. If it did not meet this time limit, the government could determine that it had waived its veto power. The rule also limited the scope to only those that will impact water quality. It excluded other considerations, such as air quality or “energy policy.” The high court on Wednesday halted that vacatur, reinstating the rule for the time being, in a 5-4 decision. Chief Justice John Roberts joined the court’s three liberal justices in dissenting. A dissent, penned by Justice Elena Kagan, argued that the states and industry groups who had asked the court for the pause didn’t prove that not doing so would cause “irreparable harm” and therefore did not qualify for a stay. “The applicants here have not met our standard because they have failed to substantiate their assertions of irreparable harm. The Court therefore has no warrant to grant emergency relief,” she wrote.The Trump rule, known as the “certification rule,” came about after high-profile rejections of fossil fuel projects in left-leaning states, namely, New York’s denial of a natural gas pipeline and Washington state’s denial of a coal shipping port.
Opponents warn of 'chaos' as Supreme Court revives Trump permit rule - The Supreme Court’s decision today to reinstate a controversial Trump-era Clean Water Act permitting rule is raising concerns that states’ and tribes’ hands could be tied in how they review — and possibly deny — permits for everything from pipelines and mines to dams. The court, without explanation and over the objection of four justices, put back in place a rule EPA finalized under the Trump administration tied to Section 401 of the Clean Water Act that bars states and tribes from considering issues not directly related to water quality — like climate change — when denying water permits (Greenwire, April 6). Today’s order brings back the Trump rule, pending the outcome of litigation in the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, and notes that the parties can bring back the matter for fuller Supreme Court review if necessary. The rule in dispute emerged in 2020 as former President Donald Trump made moves to boost the oil and gas sector. A federal district court judge last year struck down the regulation. A spokesperson for EPA said the agency is reviewing the court’s order and moving forward with a rulemaking to “restore state and Tribal authority to protect water resources that are essential to public health, ecosystems, and economic opportunity.” While environmental groups criticized the court’s decision, oil and gas, and hydropower boosters applauded it, saying that permits have been delayed and denied without the rule in place. Moneen Nasmith, a senior attorney at Earthjustice, which is representing a number of tribes and environmental groups in the case, told E&E News that there was “chaos” when the Trump-era rule was in place and that the decision from the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority to reinstate the regulation shows “disregard for the integrity of the Clean Water Act and undermines the rights of Tribes and states to review and reject dirty fossil fuel projects that threaten their water.” The Trump rule, she said, changes the delicate balance between the federal government and states that has existed for 50 years under the Clean Water Act and attempts to limit which projects are subject to review under Section 401 of the law, language that gives states and tribes the ability to review proposed projects’ effects on water quality. As an example, Nasmith said the rule tries to limit reviews to projects that are considered point sources of pollution. The rule also attempts to limit the type of information that can be asked of applicants and the basis upon which states can deny permits, as well as the conditions states can impose on permit applicants.
Supreme Court EPA order: A warning for Biden regulators? - The Supreme Court’s move yesterday to revive a Trump-era EPA permitting rule could serve as a warning for the Biden administration on how it should proceed with other regulations that have been struck down by lower courts.Yesterday’s emergency order reinstated a 2020 rule that limited the long-standing role of states and tribes under Clean Water Act Section 401 to certify pipelines, dams and other federally approved projects — and is seen by some legal observers as an indication that EPA and other agencies shouldn’t rely too heavily on lower court rulings that have rejected Trump regulations (Greenwire, April 6).The unexplained order reversed — over the objection of four justices — a finding last year by the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California that the rule violated Supreme Court precedent and should be scrapped. EPA “should be asking itself what today’s ruling means for other Trump Administration regulations that were set aside by lower courts in a similar manner,” .“In particular, the government should be considering what today’s decision could mean for its efforts to adopt a new regulation defining the reach of the Clean Water Act — an issue that the Supreme Court is set to take up later this year.”The case Minoli referred to, Sackett v. EPA, is expected to be heard by the Supreme Court this fall and has the potential to limit federal jurisdiction over the nation’s waterways — as the Trump administration with its 2019 Navigable Waters Protection Rule (Greenwire, Jan. 24).That regulation — which adopted former Justice Antonin Scalia’s narrow view of waters of the U.S., or WOTUS, as articulated in the 2006 case Rapanos v. United States — was struck down last year by the U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona.As it did with the Section 401 rule, the Biden administration responded to the Arizona district court order by reverting to pre-Trump procedures and moving ahead with a brand-new regulation. Meanwhile, critics of the court’s ruling said its application is limited to Arizona.Industry and agricultural groups appealed the Arizona district court’s decision but later dropped their case (Greenwire, Feb. 4).But Larry Liebesman, a senior adviser at Dawson & Associates, a consulting firm that specializes in permitting, noted that the Sackett Supreme Court case still has the potential to throw a wrench into the Biden administration’s new WOTUS rule.“If the court comes down with a narrow ruling favoring Justice Scalia’s Rapanos opinion, the agencies would then likely have to redo any Biden WOTUS rule to conform to Sackett,” Liebesman said.
EPA revives Obama-era rule removing emergency liability protection for polluters The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has resurrected an Obama-era proposal shelved during the Trump administration that would remove Clean Air Act (CAA) liability protections frequently invoked by industrial polluters. Under the new rule, state and federal operating permits would no longer have the option to make a so-called emergency affirmative defense. This defense allowed sources that exceeded the Clean Air Act’s emissions limits to avoid liability by attributing the violation to “emergency” circumstances. EPA Administrator Michael Regan signed the rule earlier this week, with a 45-day public comment period to follow. “These provisions, which have never been required elements of state operating permit programs, are being removed because they are inconsistent with the enforcement structure of the CAA and court decisions from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit,” the proposed rule states. “The removal of these provisions is consistent with other EPA actions involving affirmative defenses and would harmonize the enforcement and implementation of emission limitations across different CAA programs.” The rule has been in limbo for years after it was originally introduced in 2016 by the Obama administration and later withdrawn by the Trump administration in 2018.
99 percent of people worldwide breathe air that doesn’t meet WHO standard -- Virtually everyone is breathing unhealthy air, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). In a statement released on Monday, the U.N. global health organization said that 99 percent of the global population breathes air that does not meet its standards. Seven million people each year are killed by air pollution, the agency said. In September, the WHO tightened its guidelines for certain types of air pollution, including particle pollution, as well as nitrogen dioxide, both of which are mainly caused by burning fossil fuels. These pollutants were assessed in the update from the agency on Monday. Fine particle pollution has been linked to premature deaths, heart attacks and decreased lung function, while nitrogen dioxide can contribute to or worsen asthma. In response to its findings, the WHO called on countries to revise their own air quality standards and increase vehicle emissions and efficiency standards, among other actions. “After surviving a pandemic, it is unacceptable to still have 7 million preventable deaths and countless preventable lost years of good health due to air pollution,” Maria Neira, WHO director, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, said in a statement. “Yet too many investments are still being sunk into a polluted environment rather than in clean, healthy air,” Neira added. Similar to Monday’s findings, an outside assessment recently found that no countries met the WHO’s fine particle pollution standards.
Chemical pollution: Surfing in toxic waters --Scientists have issued a stark warning: chemical pollution has officially exceeded the limits safe for humans and the planet. The ocean, which has become a dumping ground for a cocktail of toxic pollutants, is bearing the brunt of this pollution. We take a closer look in this edition of Down to Earth.What exactly do we know about the risks to us humans from chemical pollution in the ocean? Surprisingly, not a whole lot. Surfrider Foundation Europe, a non-profit advocating for the protection of our seas, is on the hunt for answers. "Every day we go into the water, so every day we swallow mouthfuls and mouthfuls of seawater," says Marc Valmassoni, a campaigner for the non-profit based in Biarritz, a world-renowned surfing destination on the French Basque Coast."We have solid data on all things bacteriological pollution, but nothing on how chemical pollutants like hydrocarbons, cosmetics or drugs could impact our health in the short, medium or long term."From pesticides to drugs and metals, the list of substances that poison our ocean is well documented. Farida Akcha, an eco-toxicologist in charge of analysing the samples, says the challenge is determining if that cocktail of toxic chemicals can interfere with our health."Nowadays, we hear a lot about hormone disruptors, possible effects on our immune system, and chemicals which could even cause cancer."But the scientist remains cautious."It's important to keep in mind that just because a given substance is present in the water, it doesn't necessarily mean it will be harmful to our health," she explains. "It depends on the duration of exposure, as well as toxicity levels."
Wildfire smoke exposure in early pregnancy affects infant monkey behavior - Infant monkeys conceived while their mothers were naturally exposed to wildfire smoke show behavioral changes compared to animals conceived days later, according to a new study from researchers at the California National Primate Research Center at the University of California, Davis. The work is published April 1 in Nature Communications. The findings show the importance of timing in effects of smoke exposure on pregnancy and suggest a teratogenic, or developmental mechanism, said senior author Bill Lasley, professor emeritus of population health and reproduction at the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine and Center for Health and Environment. “I think this will have an effect on future studies of exposures in pregnancy, because we’ll know when to look,” Lasley said. Existing studies of environmental exposures during pregnancy in humans are mostly retrospective, and women may not even realize they are pregnant until weeks into the first trimester, he said. The Camp Fire, which began Nov. 8, 2018, provided a natural experiment in smoke exposure. It blanketed the Davis area, some 100 miles away, with smoke at the peak of breeding season for rhesus macaques housed in outdoor corrals at the California National Primate Research Center.The 89 animals conceived around that time were born about six months later. They divide between 52 animals conceived on or before Nov. 22, 2018 which were considered as “exposed” to wildfire smoke in their first trimester, and 37 conceived later which were not exposed. The findings suggest that some component of wildfire smoke can act as a teratogen, affecting fetal development, Lasley said. That component could be airborne hydrocarbons such as phthalates, which were found in the smoke plume from the Camp Fire. Unlike other mammals, the placenta of primates such as humans and rhesus macaques produces hormones that support brain development through the adrenal system, he said. “Since fetal adrenal glands are the source of cortisol and other steroids for neurologic development, which determines behaviors, a scenario of a placenta-adrenal-brain axis could be the causal pathway,” Lasley said.
East Tennessee wildfires prompt evacuations of thousands of residents and tourists --Firefighters in East Tennessee have been working to contain a series of wildfires that began last week. The fires have so far consumed over 3,000 acres and have led to the evacuation of roughly 11,000 homes and the displacement of hundreds of residents and tourists. Over 300 structures have been lost completely. As of this writing, no deaths or missing persons have been reported. While officials have said that they are still investigating the cause of the fires, the National Weather Service (NWS) has indicated that the fires are most likely the result of strong winds mixing with dry ground conditions and low relative humidity. Imaging provided by the NWS shows that the region experienced winds ranging from 60 to 85 miles per hour on the day that the first fire was reported. Manmade climate change driven by the burning of fossil fuels has increased the average temperature in Tennessee by 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit over the last three decades. This has contributed to more extreme weather patterns, including the drought conditions which have primed conditions for the intensification of wildfires in the region. In an April 4 press conference, the Tennessee Division of Forestry provided an update on the state’s efforts to contain the three blazes. In Sevier County, the Hatcher Mountain-Indigo Lane fire is 98 percent contained and has burned approximately 2,500 acres; the Millstone Gap-Dupont fire is 64 percent contained and has burned roughly 700 acres. In Campbell County, northwest of Sevier, the East Douglas Lane fire is 50 percent contained and has burned around 50 acres. Sevier County has lifted its evacuation orders, and only one road remains closed. Over 200 personnel and 70 agencies have been called in to battle the fires. This includes the Tennessee National Guard, who have been using Blackhawk helicopters to conduct aerial water drops. Forestry official James Heaton explained some of the challenges that firefighters on the ground have been facing, telling local ABC affiliate WATE 6, “This fire has been made more difficult due to the very steep terrain, very rocky slopes, so it’s very hard for firefighters to access the mountains.”
Rajasthan: Air Force Called in as Forest Fire Rages in Sariska Tiger Reserve Forest officials on Tuesday called in the Indian Air Force (IAF) to help douse a massive forest fire in Rajasthan’s Sariska Tiger Reserve that has spread over an area of ten square kilometres. The cause of the blaze, which started on Sunday evening in the protected forest area in the Alwar district has not yet been ascertained, officials told news agency PTI. Officials said that the fire had first started on Sunday evening and was brought under control on Monday morning. A few hours later in the evening, the forest fire flared again and was continuing till Tuesday evening. Tiger movement in the area has been affected by the fire, according to forest officials. However, no tiger is stuck in the affected area and the movement of all 27 tigers in the reserve is being monitored, they said. The statement came amid concerns that the fire has engulfed area that is part of the territory of tigress ST-17, which recently gave birth to two cubs. Around 150-200 people, including the forest staff, are engaged in efforts to control the fire. Two helicopters from the IAF have also been called in to douse the blaze. “Villagers residing in the periphery of the fire-affected area have been asked to move to safety,” the official said. Sariska Field Director R.N. Meena said the forest staff, nature guides and local people are engaged in efforts to control the fire but they are facing difficulties due to the hilly terrain. The fire on hills has been partially controlled, Meena added. District forest officer (Sariska) Sudharshan Sharma said the helicopters have made eight rounds till Tuesday evening. “The area under fire is at a height due to which there are difficulties in firefighting,” he said. The officer said that the fire is spreading due to dry grassland and bamboo trees.
Arizona farmers are slammed by water cuts in the West amid drought — On the drought-stricken land where Pinal County farmers have irrigated crops for thousands of years, Nancy Caywood stopped her pickup truck along an empty canal and pointed to a field of dead alfalfa. "It's heart wrenching," said Caywood, a third-generation farmer who manages 247 acres of property an hour outside of Phoenix. "My mom and dad toiled the land for so many years, and now we might have to give it up." Farming in the desert has always been a challenge for Arizona's farmers, who grow water-intensive crops like cotton, alfalfa and corn for cows. But this year is different. An intensifying drought and declining reservoir levels across the Western U.S. prompted the first-ever cuts to their water supply from the Colorado River. The canals that would normally bring water from an eastern Arizona reservoir to Caywood's family farm have mostly dried up. The farm will soon be operating at less than half of its usual production. And Caywood is grappling with a recent 33% price hike for water she's not receiving. "We're not making one dime off this farm right now," Caywood said. "But we're trying to hang on because this is what we love." Farmers here fear additional water restrictions in the coming weeks as a warming climate continues to reduce the amount of water that typically fills the Colorado River from rainfall and melting snow. The Bureau of Reclamation in August declared a water shortage at Lake Mead, one of the river's primary reservoirs, after water levels fell to historic lows. More than one-third of Arizona's water flows up the Colorado River to Lake Mead. The government's declaration triggered Tier 1 water reductions, which slashed the state's river water supply by nearly 20%, or 512,000 acre-feet. One acre-foot of water supplies about two households each year. Arizona farmers use nearly three-quarters of the available water supply to irrigate their crops. As supply runs low, some farmers in Pinal County couldn't afford to operate any longer and sold their land to solar developers. Others have left fields empty to cut down on water use, or have experimented with drought-resistant plants.
California Snowpack Melts, Leaving State Desperate for Water -California’s mountain snowpack has dwindled to alarmingly low levels after a record dry start to the year, leaving the world’s fifth-largest economy mired in drought at the end of its traditionally wet season.The state’s overall snowpack sits at 38% of the average for this time of year, Sean de Guzman, snow survey and water supply forecast manager for the California Department of Water Resources said Friday. Snow levels at Phillips Station, near Lake Tahoe in the Sierra Nevada mountains, were at 4% of average for April 1, de Guzman said. While the season got off to a good start, with record snowfall in some mountainous areas in December, the remaining winter months didn’t deliver rain or snow.“What we see here is evocative of 2015, which was California’s last big drought,” the department’s director, Karla Nemeth, said while standing at the station in a meadow of brown grass that would usually be buried in 5 feet (1.5 meters) of snow. “We are calling on all Californians to use water wisely and to conserve as much as you can.”The low snowpack means some California farmers won’t be getting water from their contracts this year, Nemeth said. The state expects farmers to leave much more land fallow this year compared to last due to water shortages, she said.The April 1 measurements set a baseline for how much water California can expect for the rest of the year and becomes the foundation for many allocation agreements across the state. The numbers show drought throughout California will persist and water will be tight for many. Snow is crucial because it is a natural bank, storing water high in the mountains until it melts in late spring or early summer to replenish supplies.
Price tag on Wallowa Lake Dam soars — The price tag for rebuilding the Wallowa Lake Dam has jumped to about $21 million, said Dan Butterfield, president of the Wallowa Lake Irrigation District, leaving the stakeholders wondering where they will get the extra money. The district, which owns the dam, hopes to break ground on the project in the fall of 2023, after the irrigation season ends that September. The Legislature added $14 million in state lottery funds to its budget last year for the project, which was originally estimated to cost about $16 million. Now the district and the other stakeholders have to find the additional money. “We’re going to want to make sure we have the funding lined up before we start. We’re not spending any money until we get the $14 (million),” Butterfield said April 4. “We’re going to wait and make sure we have our money before we get started.” “We’re going to still have the conversation on what we do with the gap,” Butterfield said. “Right now, we’re brainstorming on where else we could get money.” The major stakeholders of the dam include the irrigation district, the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Nez Perce Tribe’s Department of Fisheries Resources Management and the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation. Minor stakeholders also are involved, including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which has jurisdiction over bull trout; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality and others.
When will La Niña end? – La Niña is set to last longer than previously anticipated, according to a new outlook by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.The outlook, released Thursday, said the climate pattern is favored to continue through the summer. The Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 53% chance it lasts through August 2022.That’s a change from the Center’s last prediction, which expected the Northern Hemisphere to shift into an “ENSO-neutral” pattern (meaning neither La Niña nor El Niño conditions) sometime between May and July.“This month, the forecaster consensus favors a slower decay of La Niña,” the outlook said, based on observed conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere, “which contributed to cooler near-term forecasts from several state-of-the-art climate models.”Why does La Niña matter? It affects the type of weather we see across the United States. La Niña typically brings drier conditions to the southern half of the country and more rain and snow to pockets of the northern half.Between March and May, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting warmer-than-average temperatures in the southwest, southeast and Gulf States. The Pacific Northwest may see a cooler spring, according to NOAA.The precipitation outlook for the next three months looks consistent with a La Niña pattern. Dry weather is expected to dominate the southern half of the country, especially the drought-plagued southwestern states, while more rain is expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio River Valley.This year’s La Niña has been moderate in strength, NOAA meteorologists said in a recent news briefing.
Persistent La Niña only needs to last until June to promote drought | World Grain — Drought continues to prevail from southwestern Canada’s Prairies through the entire western half of the United States. January and February weather allowed the drought to expand eastward into the western US Corn Belt, which is a bad omen since winter is normally a time for diminishing drought rather than expanding it. La Niña conditions have prevailed since 2020 and its persistence can be largely attributed to the dryness. Some forecasters recently have been debating over how long the event will last, but World Weather Inc. says it really will not matter much once we reach June. La Niña events remove moisture from the mid-latitudes in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. The mere presence of La Niña for the past 20 months has allowed the phenomenon to remove notable amounts of moisture from the atmosphere. Dryness that occurred last summer in Canada and the central United States impacting crop production could easily be attributed to La Niña with some help from the negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Dryness last summer in Russia’s eastern New Lands and Kazakhstan also can be linked to La Niña. Most La Niña events only last eight to 14 months, and younger forecasters were beginning to think that La Niña was no longer having much impact on the world’s weather because it had been so long since an event has persisted this long. The most recent occurrence of prolonged La Niña conditions was 2010-12, lasting 23 months and leading to the now famous US 2012 drought. Prior to that event the previous drought of significance in the United States occurred in 1988. However, a part of the North American continent also was impacted by drought from the year 2000 through 2004 with Canada and a part of the central US most impacted.
Record-breaking cold hits Europe, causing widespread damage to agriculture - The Watchers (videos) Unseasonably cold weather hit parts of Europe over the past weekend, following warmer-than-normal temperatures in previous weeks that caused rapid greening of flora. Damage to agriculture is widespread but it seems it’s not as bad as it was last year when a similar cold episode happened. The worst affected countries were France, Germany, Spain and Austria. According to Jason Samenow and Kasha Patel of The Washingon’s Post Capital Weather Gang, temperatures plummeted 11 – 18 °C (20 – 30 °F) below normal, triggering harsh frosts and shocking early-blooming plants and crops in several countries.1 “It’s still difficult to evaluate the damage caused by the frost, but orchards and vineyards have been impacted,” Jean-Marc Touzard, director of research at the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE), said. The national minimum temperatures dropped to -1.5 °C (29.3 °F) overnight Sunday and early Monday, April 4, 2022, marking the country’s coldest morning since 1947, according to data provided by Meteo France. While Mourmelon in the Marne department east of Paris saw record temperatures of -9.3 °C (15.2 °F), French mountainous regions recorded -21.5 °C (-6.7 °F), setting a new April record. For France, April 1 -3 were the coldest first three days of April since at least 1930, according to French meteorologist Guillaume Séchet. Growers across the affected regions burned candles, sprayed water and used wind turbines in efforts to protect their crops from freezing temperatures, AFP reported.2 “Frost is a normal thing in early April. What’s less normal is for the plant to already be developed at that point,” winemaker Thomas Ventoursa said. “Since 2016, we have had three big frost episodes and it’s true that it makes you seriously wonder about the future of our trade in this period,” Ventoursa added. “Everyone is tense because after the very poor harvest of 2021, we were at least expecting something normal.” “It’s very bad. It hit hard overnight. A lot of fruit growers are affected,” Christiane Lambert, president of the FNSEA farmers’ union, told AFP. In the Tarn-et-Garonne department in the southwest, Damien Garrigues sprayed his apple trees to cover buds in ice in a bid to protect them from even lower temperatures. “For now it’s not as bad as last year,” he said, noting he lost 20 percent of production in 2021. Big losses are expected for plum growers in the Lot-at-Garonne department, but not as bad as last year when 100% of plums were destroyed by a cold snap. The agriculture ministry said it’s too early to draw conclusions about the damage as it’ll only be visible after a few days.
Storm Diego: Heavy rain, snow and strong winds to hit France - A strong windstorm named Storm Diego by Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA) on April 6, 2022 is expected to bring heavy rain, strong winds and snow to France as it begins to move eastward across the country at around midday April 8. Diego will also affect Spain and reach Germany overnight Saturday. It is not expected to impact Portugal directly but it will bring heavy rain to certain parts of the country.Storm Diego was still over the Atlantic Ocean at 04:00 UTC on April 8, with a minimum pressure of 993 hPa, according to data provided by Meteo France.1It is expected to start moving east across the country around midday, bringing heavy rain and winds up to 100 km/h (62 mph), with gusts to 110 km/h (68 mph) in central parts. “This is a classic storm in terms of intensity, but unusual for the month of April,” Meteo France meteorologists said.The strongest winds are expected in the Charente archipelago and the Massif Central.Snowfall is expected in the Northern Alps until Saturday afternoon, April 9, fluctuating around 1 800 – 2 000 m (5 900 – 6 500 feet) on Friday and dropping down to 600 – 800 m (1 900 – 2 600 feet) on Saturday morning.Between 60 cm and 1 m (2 – 3.3 feet) of snow is expected at altitudes around 2 000 m (6 500 feet), but more is possible in certain areas.
Major flood warnings issued as Sydney records a month’s worth of rain in a day, Australia - The Watchers -Sydney, Australia is experiencing the third major flooding event this year, forcing authorities to issue evacuation orders for thousands of residents. Flood warnings for minor to major flooding in the Hawkesbury-Nepean and Georges rivers have been issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), with major flooding possible for Menangle, Liverpool and Milperra this afternoon.Sydney received nearly a month’s worth of April rain (126.5 mm / 4.98 inches) overnight Thursday, April 7, 2022, causing rivers to rise, turning streets into rivers and forcing thousands to evacuate.A man swept away by floods in the city’s northwest was rescued by emergency crews, media reported, while television footage showed vehicles struggling to cross waterlogged streets, fallen power lines and trees, and debris floating in rivers.1“This is a highly dynamic situation. These events are moving exceptionally quickly,” New South Wales emergency services Acting Commissioner Daniel Austin said. “Exceptionally sharp, short bursts of rain” have been creating flash flooding almost every hour.” According to data provided by BOM, Rose Bay in Sydney recorded 167.2 mm (6.58 inches) of rain in 24 hours on April 7 while the suburb of Centennial Park recorded 163 mm (6.41 inches) and Sydney Airport 125.5 mm (4.94 inches).So far this year, Sydney has received 1 227 mm (48.3 inches), which is more than its average annual rainfall of 1 213 mm (47.7 inches).Over the next 24 hours, many coastal towns could get up to 180 mm (7 inches) more as heavy rainfall continues to impact southern and central NSW coast and adjacent ranges including the South Coast, Illawarra, Metropolitan and southern Hunter districts.Rainfall is expected to intensify around coastal areas of Wollongong today, continue on Friday, April 8 and then ease on Saturday, April 9.2A flood watch has been issued for many other catchments in New South Wales.Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over saturated catchment areas increase the risk of flooding in rivers, creeks and streams, flash flooding and landslips, BOM said, urging affected communities to stay up to date with the latest Bureau warnings.This is the third intense weather system to hit eastern Australia in just 6 weeks, with several parts of northern New South Wales and southeast Queensland receiving record rains and Sydney registering its wettest March on record.
NSW floods: Camden homes and businesses flooded for the third time in 2022 - The Watchers After days of heavy rain hammering Sydney’s southwest, the town of Camden has suffered severely with homes and businesses drowning under the deluge of water. While residents have been left with another major clean-up, some of them are just lucky to survive.
Record-breaking rain hits Rio de Janeiro, causing severe floods and landslides, Brazil - (videos) At least 16 people have been killed and 16 others remain missing after record-breaking rains triggered severe flash floods and landslides in the Baixada Fluminense and Costa Verde regions of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil. Heavy rains across the state began on Thursday night, March 31, and continued through Saturday, April 2. Firefighters confirmed the deaths of six people in Angra, about a three-hour drive from Rio de Janeiro city, and six more deaths in the nearby municipalities of Paraty and Mesquita. At least 16 people were still missing, as of April 3, 2022.1 By Monday, April 4, the number of fatalities rose to 16. The worst affected was the popular tourist town of Paraty, located on the Costa Verde (Green Coast), a lush green corridor that runs along the coastline of the state of Rio de Janeiro. A destructive landslide hit the town’s Ponta Negra neighborhood on Saturday, killing a mother and five of her children, ages two, five, eight, 10, and 15. A sixth child was rescued alive and taken to the hospital, officials said. In all, seven houses were swept away in landslides in the city, and another four people were injured. 71 families were forced from their homes, officials said.2 Two more victims were killed in the cities of Mesquita and Angra dos Reis, where another 13 people remain missing, said Congressman Marcelo Freixo. The municipality of Angra dos Reis received 809 mm (31.8 inches) of rain in 48 hours to April 2, causing deadly floods and landslides. The volume of rain registered in 48 hours was the highest on record in Angra dos Reis, according to the city’s municipal government. On Sunday, April 3, the mayor of Angra dos Reis, Fernando Jordão, asked federal authorities to shut down Brazil’s only nuclear power plant, saying nearby roads had been affected by landslides and flooding, jeopardizing the plant’s emergency plans. The latest floods and landslides come just six weeks after flash floods and landslides killed at least 233 people in Petropolis.3
Large violent tornado hits Pembroke, Georgia - (video) A violent tornado moved through areas in central Georgia on Tuesday, April 5, 2022, leaving at least one person dead and several injured. Severe weather, with heavy rain, damaging winds and tornadoes, is expected to continue across the Southeast section of the U.S., including the Atlanta metro area, today. “A large wedge tornado with horizontal vortices cut a swath through an area just north of Pembroke,” Live Storms Media reports. “We were one of the 1st on scene and started to do search and rescue. There were multiple injuries and victims trapped under-leveled homes.” The tornado ripped part of the roof from the Bryan County courthouse, destroyed the entrance to a local government building across the street and damaged homes in nearby neighborhoods, said Matthew Kent, a county government spokesman.1 At least one person was killed and several others were injured in the county, Kent said. Another person was killed in eastern Texas yesterday when storm winds toppled a tree onto a home in Whitehouse, about 160 km (100 miles) southeast of Dallas. Officials said trees fell on at least four homes there. The Pembroke tornado was a part of widespread severe storms affecting the U.S. Southeast on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center is reporting 38 tornadoes and 14 large hail events on April 5. SPC filtered storm reports for April 5, 2022
Sudden explosive eruption at Poas volcano, Costa Rica - - A sudden explosive eruption took place at the northern part of Costa Rica’s Poas volcano at 08:42 UTC on April 6, 2022.The eruption lasted about 3 minutes, generating a steam plume some 500 m (1 640 feet) above the crater (or 3 200 m / 10 500 feet a.s.l.).The eruption came without any detectable precursors, such as increase in seismic activity or temperature of fumaroles which usually increase from 100 °C (212 °F) to 900 °C (1 652 °F).Volcanologist Javier Pacheco from Costa Rica’s monitoring agency OVSICORI-UNA said the eruption seems to have not involved any new magma, but almost purely ejected steam. “It was likely a phreatic (steam-driven) explosion,” Pacheco said.1The broad, well-vegetated edifice of Poás, one of the most active volcanoes of Costa Rica, contains three craters along a N-S line. The frequently visited multi-hued summit crater lakes of the basaltic-to-dacitic volcano, which is one of Costa Rica’s most prominent natural landmarks, are easily accessible by vehicle from the nearby capital city of San José.A N-S-trending fissure cutting the 2 708-m-high (8 884 feet) complex stratovolcano extends to the lower northern flank, where it has produced the Congo stratovolcano and several lake-filled maars.
Storms batter aging power grid as climate disasters spread -- Power outages from severe weather have doubled over the past two decades across the U.S., as a warming climate stirs more destructive storms that cripple broad segments of the nation’s aging electrical grid, according to an Associated Press analysis of government data. Forty states are experiencing longer outages — and the problem is most acute in regions seeing more extreme weather, U.S. Department of Energy data shows. The blackouts can be harmful and even deadly for the elderly, disabled and other vulnerable communities. Power grid maintenance expenses are skyrocketing as utilities upgrade decades-old transmission lines and equipment. And that means customers who are hit with more frequent and longer weather outages also are paying more for electricity. “The electric grid is our early warning,” said University of California, Berkeley grid expert Alexandra von Meier. “Climate change is here and we’re feeling real effects.” The AP analysis found:
- —The number of outages tied to severe weather rose from about 50 annually nationwide in the early 2000s to more than 100 annually on average over the past five years.
- —The frequency and length of power failures are at their highest levels since reliability tracking began in 2013 — with U.S. customers on average experiencing more than eight hours of outages in 2020.
- —Maine, Louisiana and California each experienced at least a 50% increase in outage duration even as residents endured mounting interruption costs over the past several years.
- —In California alone, power losses have affected tens of thousands of people who rely on electricity for medical needs.
The AP analyzed electricity disturbance data submitted by utilities to the U.S. Department of Energy to identify weather-related outages. The analysis also examined utility-level data covering outages of more than five minutes, including how long they lasted and how often they occurred. Department officials declined comment. Driving the increasingly commonplace blackouts are weather disasters now rolling across the country with seasonal consistency. Winter storms called nor’easters barrel into New England and shred decrepit electrical networks. Hot summers spawn hurricanes that pound the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard, plunging communities into the dark, sometimes for months. And in fall, West Coast windstorms trigger forced power shutoffs across huge areas to protect against deadly wildfires
The Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast from Colorado State University calls for an above-average season - -The Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast from the Colorado State University (CSU) calls for an above-average season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Reasons for the above-average forecast include a predicted lack of El Nino and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic.The Colorado State University forecast anticipates that the 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely.Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal.“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and Michael Bell said.1“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.” “Information obtained through March 2022 indicates that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity above the 1991–2020 average,” forecasters said.“We estimate that 2022 will have 9 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 19 named storms (average is 14.4), 90 named storm days (average is 69.4), 35 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 9 major hurricane days (average is 7.4).
Forecasters predict another active hurricane season with 19 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes -After two of the most active hurricane seasons on record in 2020 and 2021, top hurricane forecasters on Thursday said we should expect another above-normal season this year. For the season, which begins June 1, meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University—among the nation's top seasonal hurricane forecasters—predict 19 named tropical storms will form in 2022, of which 9 will become hurricanes. An average season has 14 tropical storms, seven of which become hurricanes. If the prediction holds true, it will be the seventh consecutive above-normal season. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph. Of the nine predicted hurricanes, four are expected to spin into major hurricanes—Category 3, 4 or 5—with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The group said there's a 71% chance at least one major hurricane will make landfall somewhere in the U.S. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, though storms sometimes form outside those dates. In fact, storms have formed in May in each of the past seven years. According to Klotzbach, the reasons for the above-average forecast include the predicted lack of El Niño and warmer-than-normal seawater in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. One of the major determining factors in hurricane forecasting is whether we are in an El Niño or La Niña climate pattern. El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, which tends to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. Its opposite, La Niña, marked by cooler ocean water, tends to increase hurricanes in the Atlantic. El Niño generally increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, which can tear apart developing hurricanes. Insurance companies, emergency managers and news outlets use these seasonal forecasts to prepare Americans for the year's hurricane threat. The team's annual predictions provide the best estimate of activity during the upcoming season, not an exact measure, according to Colorado State. The university, under the direction of meteorologist William Gray, was the first group to predict seasonal hurricane activity in the mid-1980s. Gray died in 2016. This is the team's 39th forecast. It covers the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Federal forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue their prediction for the season in May.
Climate change is eroding Karnataka’s coast. The battle against it is more political than scientific Nine-year old Hasain Sina picked his way through a narrow rubble-strewn lane lined by the husks of modest homes. They looked as though they had been sliced vertically by some gigantic scalpel, their inner lives and private spaces thrown open to the world. Sina walked past one of these houses, whose face had been sheared off by the sea. There were jagged edges everywhere, in this settlement in Ullal, on the coast of Karnataka: in broken foundation stones sticking out of the earth like broken bones, in roofs caved in and swaying in the breeze, in the nails and tiles that paved the little lane Sina walked down. The child already seemed intimately familiar with the destruction and the bounce back – the rhythm of these lives by the sea. His own home, just a few hundred metres away, lay damaged by the sea. In recent months, he has drawn comfort from a giant new seawall that stretches the length of this settlement, half-a-dozen metres from their homes.The wall stands about eight feet tall and, from where we stood, ran as far as the eye could see in both directions. Seen from the sea, it is a haphazard mass of tetrapods that looks like a game of three-dimensional Tetris gone wrong.It was completed by the Karnataka government in 2019 with technical and financial support from the Asian Development Bank, and is the latest move in a decades-long battle against coastal erosion. Ullal’s new, reinforced seawall arose from a graveyard of lesser projects built and destroyed over a decade. As the monsoon sea advanced to consume houses and roads, the government lined the shoreline repeatedly, first with rocks, then rocks again, and then very large sandbags. Every monsoon, the winds picked up, the waves grew violent and these defences were dismantled by the sea. “It is such a powerful hit,” said UT Khader, the four-time MLA of the area. “These huge stones are flying around like footballs right at the houses.”The new seawall, with deeper foundations and many more layers of defence, is a reprieve for elected representatives and government administrators, pausing decades of local dissatisfaction. “There was a lot of pressure earlier,” said Khader, “but now it has reduced.”This story is playing out across Karnataka’s coast and in many Indian states. A mix of unscientific coastal development and climatic change, seen here as rising sea levels and more frequent cyclones, has made coastal erosion more widespread and unpredictable.According to separate government studies, between a third and 46% of India’s coastline has seen varying degrees of erosion in the last three decades. Over a fifth of Karnataka’s coast was eroded between 1990 and 2016. A 2019 paper that studied erosion in different parts of the state’s coast found that Ullal was the worst hit: since 1990, it had lost the most land to the sea, at the rate of 1.3 metres a year.As pressure mounts, these quiet coastal settlements are being shaped by a new brand of politics driven by climate impacts. In the problem of erosion, local politicians see a new arena for competition and recognition, particularly because these vivid scenes of devastation are annually plastered across local papers, and television and mobile screens.
Researchers demonstrate new link between greenhouse gases and sea level rise - A new study provides the first evidence that rising greenhouse gases have a long-term warming effect on the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica. Scientists from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) say that while others have proposed this link, no one has been able to demonstrate it. Ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Amundsen Sea is one of the fastest growing and most concerning contributions to global sea level rise. If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet were to melt, global sea levels could rise by up to three meters. The patterns of ice loss suggest that the ocean may have been warming in the Amundsen Sea over the past one hundred years, but scientific observations of the region only began in 1994. In the study—published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters—oceanographers used advanced computer modeling to simulate the response of the ocean to a range of possible changes in the atmosphere between 1920 and 2013. The simulations show the Amundsen Sea generally became warmer over the century. This warming corresponds with simulated trends in wind patterns in the region that increase temperatures by driving warm water currents towards and beneath the ice. Rising greenhouse gases are known to make these wind patterns more likely, and so the trend in winds is thought to be caused in part by human activity. This study supports theories that ocean temperatures in the Amundsen Sea have been rising since before records began. It also provides the missing link between ocean warming and wind trends that are known to be partly driven by greenhouse gases. Ocean temperatures around the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will probably continue to rise if greenhouse gas emissions increase, with consequences for ice melt and global sea levels. These findings suggest, however, that this trend could be curbed if emissions are sufficiently reduced and wind patterns in the region are stabilized. Dr. Kaitlin Naughten, ocean-ice modeler at BAS and lead author of this study, says, "Our simulations show how the Amundsen Sea responds to long-term trends in the atmosphere, specifically the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. This raises concerns for the future because we know these winds are affected by greenhouse gases. However, it should also give us hope, because it shows that sea level rise is not out of our control." Professor Paul Holland, ocean and ice scientist at BAS and a co-author of the study, says, "Changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are a well-established climate response to the effect of greenhouse gases. However, the Amundsen Sea is also subject to very strong natural climate variability. The simulations suggest that both natural and anthropogenic changes are responsible for the ocean-driven ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet."
Birds may be laying eggs earlier due to Climate change – Climate change is causing some species of birds to lay their eggs a month earlier than normal. A study recently published in the Journal of Animal Ecology reports that roughly a third of all bird species around the Chicago area are nesting an average of 25 days earlier than usual.The altered nesting dates are the result of warmer and earlier springs, which is the start of the breeding season for most North American bird species, according to the study. America is changing faster than ever! Add Changing America to your Facebook or Twitter feed to stay on top of the news. “They have evolved to try and mate at a certain period of time because that is when food is most abundant to feed their babies,” said Jeremy Kirchman, curator of birds at the New York State Museum, who was not involved in the study. “Now, they’re nesting earlier because the cues that they are following in order to know when to breed are climate related.” Researchers, including Kirchman, worry that birds laying eggs in “false springs” run the risk of “mismatching” between their lay dates and when there is enough food. Cold snaps that occur in the springtime as a result of climate change also pose a threat to birds as food supplies are likely to perish during a sudden drop in temperature. Bird populations in the United States are in decline, with the overall population of birds in North America having dropped by 3 billion since the 1970s. And climate change threatens to make the population decrease even more drastic.
Highly accurate permafrost maps of the Northern Hemisphere published -- Researchers from the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and their collaborators published a high-accuracy and high-resolution permafrost map over the Northern Hemisphere.They integrated the unprecedentedly large amounts of field data and multisource geospatial data, especially remote sensing data, using multi- machine learning model with an ensemble strategy.Related results were published in Earth System Science Data.The permafrost distribution and thermal state (i.e., mean annual ground temperature or MAGT, active layer thickness or ALT) are important for studies on climatology, hydrology, ecology, agriculture, public health, and engineering planning in cold region.With the accumulation of ground observation data and remote sensing data, it is possible to mapping the permafrost over the Northern Hemisphere with a high accuracy and higher resolution.The researchers compiled a ground measurement database in the Northern Hemisphere through international cooperation and literature review. The database contains unprecedentedly large amounts of field data (1,002 boreholes for MAGT and 452 sites for ALT) for the period of 2000–2016.Then, they used the four statistical/machine learning techniques include the generalized additive model, support vector regression, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting to integrate these intensive ground observation and spatial data. Cross-validation indicated that the maps were more accurate than those of previous circumpolar maps.The study indicated that the distribution of MAGT displayed an obvious latitudinal gradient from the zone of extremely cold (<10 °C) permafrost in the High Arctic to the zone of warm (>2 °C) permafrost in alpine and high-plateau regions at low latitudes, such as the Qinghai-Tibet and Mongolian plateaus, as well as the Yablonovy and Stanovoy mountains in southeastern Russia.Besides, the pattern of ALT was generally similar to that of MAGT, but the details varied markedly. The regional average ALT varied from 76.95±21.69 cm in the High Arctic to 232.40±47.95 cm in the alpine and high-plateau permafrost regions at low latitudes with a narrow transition zone in the Mongolian Plateau and Northeast China. The new maps show that the permafrost area is approximately 14.77 (13.60–18.97) ×106 km2 over the Northern Hemisphere, excluding glaciers (approximately 0.64×106 km2) and lakes (approximately 0.3×106 km2), while the areal extent of the permafrost region is approximately 19.82×106 km2 with different occurrence probabilities.
Climate-warming microbes thrive in drying peatlands -Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a dangerous greenhouse gas, warms the climate and destroys the stratospheric ozone layer. Nitrous oxide is the intermediate and by-product of several processes of the nitrogen cycle conducted by soil microbes. While undisturbed wet peatlands do not emit much N2O, drained peatlands are substantial sources of nitrous oxide. A global study of peatlands led by geographers and microbiologists of the University of Tartu, Estonia, identified the microbes involved in nitrous oxide emissions from different peatland environments. Genetic analysis of soil samples from all major peatland regions and types of the world revealed that high nitrous oxide emissions are associated with several microbial groups. Among those, nitrifying archaea and bacteria, denitrifiers, and ammonifiers (DNRA) emerged as important. In peatlands with high nitrous oxide production, all those microbial groups were abundant. Therefore, the more nitrous oxide-producing microbial groups are present in the soil, the more nitrous oxide the peatland emits. Nitrous oxide is a nitrogen compound and thus part of the nitrogen cycle. Nitrification is a process where microbes consume ammonium (NH4) and dissolved oxygen (O2) from the soil, and produce nitrous oxide and eventually nitrate (NO3). This study distinguished between nitrifying bacteria and archaea. The latter are a more ancient group that thrives in more extreme environments. Nitrifying archaea showed the most significant correlation with nitrous oxide emissions among the microbes. During the study, a large amount of nitrifiers were found in both dry and wet peatlands. This is a sure sign of climate change that has temporarily drawn down the water table and introduced oxygen in wet peatlands. Denitrification is a process where microbes, in the absence of dissolved oxygen, consume the oxygen from nitrate and produce nitrous oxide and eventually inert N2 nitrogen. Abundant denitrifiers were found during the study in both wet and dry peatlands. This shows that even the driest of peatlands experience seasonal floods or even have permanently wet aggregates. In conclusion, the results show complex mechanisms behind the nitrous oxide pollution. This calls for global attention. Microbes react rapidly to environmental change. It is difficult to stop them from producing nitrous oxide from highly available soil nitrogen compounds at favorable environmental conditions. One way to address the issue is to use nitrogen fertilizers wisely. Equally important is to combat climate change, especially the climatic drying and man-made drainage of peatlands. The research was published in Nature Communications.
Methane emissions surged by a record amount in 2021, NOAA says - Global emissions of methane, the second-biggest contributor to human-caused climate change after carbon dioxide, surged by a record amount in 2021, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday.Methane, a key component of natural gas, is 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide but doesn't last as long in the atmosphere before it breaks down. Major contributors to methane emissions include oil and gas extraction, landfills and wastewater, and farming of livestock."Our data show that global emissions continue to move in the wrong direction at a rapid pace," Rick Spinrad, the NOAA administrator, said in a statement. "The evidence is consistent, alarming and undeniable."NOAA said the annual increase in atmospheric methane last year was 17 parts per billion, the largest amount recorded since systematic measurements began in 1983. The increase in methane during 2020 was 15.3 parts per billion. In 2021, atmospheric methane levels averaged 1,895.7 parts per billion, or roughly 162% greater than preindustrial levels, NOAA said.The report comes after more than 100 countries joined a coalition to cut 30% of methane gas emissions by 2030 from 2020 levels. The Global Methane Pledge of 2021 includes six of the world's 10 biggest methane emitters — the U.S., Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Mexico. China, Russia, India and Iran did not join the pledge.Last year, a landmark United Nations report declared that drastically slashing methane is necessary to avoid the worst outcomes of global warming. The report said if the world could cut methane emissions by up to 45% through 2030, it would prevent 255,000 premature deaths and 775,000 asthma-related hospital visits on an annual basis.
‘A file of shame’: Major UN climate report shows world is on track for catastrophic levels of warming - The world is on track to usher in a devastating level of global warming, warns a major report from the world’s leading climate scientists.“It is a file of shame, cataloguing the empty pledges that put us firmly on track towards an unlivable world,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said of the study in a statement.To avert the worst consequences of the climate crisis, the analysis from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says, leaders must make radical, immediate changes. That includes rapidly phasing out the use of fossil fuels.The world has already warmed by roughly 1.1 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution, chiefly due to the burning of coal, oil, or gas. The more ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement aim to limit warming to 1.5 degrees;crossing that threshold would exacerbate hunger, conflict and drought globally, destroy at least 70% of coral reefs, and put millions at risk of being swallowed by rising seas.The world has only a 38% chance of achieving that goal, the new report says.The report is the third of three crucial documents from the UN body released over the past eight months. While the first two studies examined the causes and effects of the climate crisis, Monday’s report focuses on what the world can do to fight it.UN scientists have long warned that expanding fossil fuel infrastructure will make the 1.5 degree target unattainable. But the new report, released Monday, goes even further, showing that even continuing to operate existing infrastructure until the end of their lifespans would put that target out of reach.“We cannot keep warming below catastrophic levels without first and foremost accelerating the shift away from all fossil fuels, beginning immediately,” Nikki Reisch, climate and energy Program Director at the Center for International Environmental Law, said in a statement. Any chance of meeting the 1.5 degree target will require the world to use 95 percent less coal, 60 percent less oil, and 45 percent less gas by 2050. The only other option, the report says, is to retrofit fossil fuel infrastructure with machines that suck carbon out of the air. But that technology has not been proven to work at scale. Though the use of some carbon capture technology will be “unavoidable,” the authors write, it should mostly be used for sectors that are more difficult to decarbonize, like the manufacturing of steel and cement.The report says fossil fuel phaseout must be coupled with unprecedented investment in wind, solar, battery storage and other forms of clean power. Right now, the world is spending far too little on the energy transition — it has to spend three to six times more on renewable power by 2030 in order to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius, the scientists say. Right now, world leaders lack plans to phase out dirty energy sources; they also intend to bring more polluting projects online. If nations follow through with current expansion plans, the authors say they are not confident that global temperature rise won’t exceed 2 degrees Celsius — a level of warming that would vastly increase deadly extreme weather, destroy 99% of coral reefs, and make life in many regions untenable. This puts officials in an uncomfortable position: To secure a livable future, they’ll have to wind down energy projects before they’re paid for. In fact, $11.8 trillion in existing assets, or money already invested, will have to be stranded by 2050 to meet the 2 degree goal, the authors estimate, citing a 2020 report from the International Renewable Energy Agency. If nations delay climate action by ten years, another $7.7 trillion will be stranded.
IPCC report: ‘now or never’ if world is to stave off climate disaster - The world can still hope to stave off the worst ravages of climate breakdown but only through a “now or never” dash to a low-carbon economy and society, scientists have said in what is in effect a final warning for governments on the climate. Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025, and can be nearly halved this decade, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to give the world a chance of limiting future heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The final cost of doing so will be minimal, amounting to just a few percent of global GDP by mid-century, though it will require a massive effort by governments, businesses and individuals. But the chances were narrow and the world was failing to make the changes needed, the body of the world’s leading climate scientists warned. Temperatures will soar to more than 3C, with catastrophic consequences, unless policies and actions are urgently strengthened. Jim Skea, a professor at Imperial College London and co-chair of the working group behind the report, said: “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.” The report on Monday was the third and final section of the IPCC’s latest comprehensive review of climate science, drawing on the work of thousands of scientists. IPCC reports take about seven years to compile, making this potentially the last warning before the world is set irrevocably on a path to climate breakdown. Though the report found it was now “almost inevitable” that temperatures would rise above 1.5C – the level above which many of the effects of climate breakdown will become irreversible – the IPCC said it could be possible to bring them back down below the critical level by the end of this century. But doing so could require technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which campaigners warned were unproven and could not be a substitute for deep emissions cuts now. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said some governments and businesses were “lying” in claiming to be on track for 1.5C. In a strongly worded rebuke, he warned: “Some government and business leaders are saying one thing – but doing another. Simply put, they are lying. And the results will be catastrophic.” Soaring energy prices and the war in Ukraine have prompted governments to rethink their energy policies. Many countries – including the US, the UK and the EU – are considering ramping up fossil fuels as part of their response, but the IPCC report made clear that increasing fossil fuels would put the 1.5C target beyond reach. Guterres said: “Inflation is rising, and the war in Ukraine is causing food and energy prices to skyrocket. But increasing fossil fuel production will only make matters worse.” The IPCC working group 3 report found:
- Coal must be effectively phased out if the world is to stay within 1.5C, and currently planned new fossil fuel infrastructure would cause the world to exceed 1.5C.
- Methane emissions must be reduced by a third.
- Growing forests and preserving soils will be necessary, but tree-planting cannot do enough to compensate for continued emissions for fossil fuels.
- Investment in the shift to a low-carbon world is about six times lower than it needs to be.
- All sectors of the global economy, from energy and transport to buildings and food, must change dramatically and rapidly, and new technologies including hydrogen fuel and carbon capture and storage will be needed.
5 Takeaways From the U.N. Report on Limiting Global Warming - The New York Times - Nations are not doing nearly enough to prevent global warming from increasing to dangerous levels within the lifetimes of most people on Earth today, according to a new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of researchers convened by the United Nations. Limiting the devastation won’t be easy, but it also isn’t impossible if countries act now, the report says.The panel produces a comprehensive overview of climate science once every six to eight years. It splits its findings into three reports. The first, on what’s driving global warming, came out last August. The second, on climate change’s effects on our world and our ability to adapt to them, was released in February. This is No. 3, on how we can cut emissions and limit further warming.
- The report makes it clear: Nations’ current pledges to curb greenhouse-gas emissions most likely will not stop global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, within the next few decades. And that’s assuming countries follow through. If they don’t, even more warming is in store. Earth has already warmed about 1.1 degrees Celsius on average since the 19th century.
- Emissions are tied to economic growth and income. Carbon dioxide emissions from factories, cities, buildings, farms and vehicles increased in the 2010s, outweighing the benefits from power plants’ switching to natural gas from coal and using more renewable sources such as wind and solar. On the whole, it is the richest people and wealthiest nations that are heating up the planet. Worldwide, the richest 10 percent of households are responsible for between a third to nearly half of all greenhouse gas emissions, according to the report. The poorest 50 percent of households contribute around 15 percent of emissions.
- Clean energy has become more affordable. The prices of solar and wind energy, and electric vehicle batteries, have dropped significantly since 2010, the report finds. The result is that it may now be “more expensive” in some cases to maintain highly polluting energy systems than to switch to clean sources, the report says. In 2020, solar and wind provided close to 10 percent of the world’s electricity. Average worldwide emissions grew much more slowly in the 2010s than they did in the 2000s, partly because of greater use of green energy.
- Still, altering the climate path won’t be easy or cheap. The world needs to invest three to six times what it’s currently spending on mitigating climate change if it wants to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius, the report says. Money is particularly short in poorer countries, which need trillions of dollars of investment each year this decade.
- There are other steps that could help and wouldn’t break the bank. The report looks at a host of other changes to societies that could reduce emissions, including more energy-efficient buildings, more recycling and more white-collar work going remote and virtual. These changes do not have to be economy-dampening chores, the report emphasizes. Some, like better public transit and more walkable urban areas, have benefits for air pollution and overall well-being, “People are demanding more healthy cities and greener cities,” she said.In all, steps that would cost less than $100 per ton of carbon dioxide saved could lower global emissions to about half the 2019 level by 2030, the report says. Other steps remain pricier, such as capturing more of the carbon dioxide from the gases that pour from smokestacks at power plants, the report says.The world also needs to remove carbon dioxide that is already in the atmosphere. Planting more trees is pretty much the only way this is being done at large scale right now, the report says. Other methods, like using chemicals to extract atmospheric carbon or adding nutrients to the oceans to stimulate photosynthesis in tiny marine plants, are still in early development.
The world is 'perilously close' to irreversible climate change. 5 tipping points keep scientists up at night -Five years ago, the United Nations' panel on climate change was charged with drafting a series of reports detailing its science, the effects on the planet and how humanity might save itself. The last of those reports arrived this week, and the news is dire. The world's scientists say the crisis is upon us, and unless we act now, multiple crucial planetary systems are on the cusp of permanent damage. "We can't kick this can down the road any longer," said Andrea Dutton, a geoscientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Since the 1880s, the Earth's temperature has risen more than 2 degrees, according to NASA. That may not sound like a lot, but it's enough to disrupt natural systems that support all living things—including humans. In a damning speech Monday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said the world is "perilously close to tipping points that could lead to cascading and irreversible" consequences. Here are five tipping points scientists say could start to teeter in our children's lifetime:
- Amazon rainforest becomes a savanna: In most immediate peril is the Amazon rainforest. The 2.5 million square mile rainforest is so vast it creates its own rainfall and is home to 10% of the world's species. But rising temperatures and increasing drought are bringing it ever closer to crossing the threshold from lush rainforest to arid savannah. "The recent evidence has been quite alarming. It really does look like we're closing in on a place where a relatively modest amount of drying could kill off the rainforest and turn it into something else,"
- Coral reefs die: Coral reefs hang in the balance. Coral are vital to the health of the oceans. Although they cover only 0.2% of the ocean floor, they are home to at least a quarter of all marine species. They provide safety for juvenile fish and are home to the small organisms and fish which provide food for larger fish. Scientists estimate that the reefs account for 25% of fish caught in developing countries. Coral reefs can survive within only a relatively narrow temperature band. The coral that build them get much of their food from algae living in their tissues. When the seawater is too warm, the coral's stress response is to expel algae, causing the coral to turn white. The process is called coral bleaching, and if it lasts too long, the coral can starve—turning a thriving ecosystem into a cemetery of dead shells.
- Ice sheets melting: Time is running out for the world's largest ice sheets. Both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are melting, and the Antarctic is believed to be the most unstable. If they melt entirely, it would cause catastrophic sea level rise around the globe. Loss of the Antarctic sheet could result in as high as 11 feet of rise. Loss of the Greenland sheet could be 23 feet, said Timothy Lenton, chair of climate change and Earth system science at the University of Exeter, United Kingdom. "About 90% of the transportation worldwide goes over the ocean and all port infrastructure is at sea level—you can see what a problem this will cause,"
- Atlantic circulation stops The circulation of the Atlantic is at risk. The official name of this danger is Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Collapse. If it were to happen, it could bring about an ice age in Europe and sea level rise in cities like Boston and New York. What's known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) keeps warmer water from the tropics flowing north along the coast of northern Europe to the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to the bottom of the ocean. That cooler water is then pulled back southward along the coast of North America as part of a circular pattern. This cycle keeps northern Europe several degrees warmer than it would otherwise be and brings colder water to the coast of North America.
- The 'snow forest' disappears The vast boreal forests of the north face a future as treeless grasslands. Cold weather forests that run across the Western United States, Canada and Alaska are estimated to store more than 30% of all forest carbon on the planet. Without them, huge amounts of greenhouse gases would be released into the atmosphere, worsening global warming. A combination of three things are destroying it: heat, fire and bark beetles. Rising temperatures cause droughts and make forest fires more likely. Heat also boosts the population of bark beetles devastating the forests. "Forests can tolerate heat and drought up to a point, and then there's a point where they can't tolerate anymore,"
UN calls for ‘substantial reduction’ in fossil fuels to limit climate change -The United Nations’ climate change panel is calling for a “substantial reduction” in the global use of fossil fuels in order to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Warning there is limited time to act, the latest report from the panel says that by 2030, greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by at least 43 percent to prevent 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming at the end of the century — a key threshold that would help the world evade much of the potential climate damage. “We have a really, really stark task ahead of us,” said Stephanie Roe, a lead author of the report and global climate and energy lead scientist at the World Wildlife Fund. “The amount of emission reductions that we need to achieve over the next decade is unprecedented and … it needs to be almost immediate, as soon a possible, and it needs to be at a very large scale,” Roe said. The report also calls for emissions to reach their peak in the next few years, before 2025 at the latest. Jim Skea, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which produced the report, warned that the next few years are critical. “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C,” Skea said in a statement. To make the necessary reductions, the report calls for limiting the use of fossil fuels. Combustion of fossil fuels and industrial processes are responsible for about 78 percent of climate-warming emissions over the past several decades. In particular, the U.N. report calls for limiting the use of coal by 95 percent, oil by 60 percent and natural gas by 45 percent in 2050 when compared to their use in 2019. To limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius — which would allow substantially more climate-caused harm — the use of these fuels would need to be cut by 85 percent, 30 percent and 15 percent, respectively, by 2050 compared to their 2019 level. These declines factor in the use of carbon capture, a still developing technology that is used to capture and store emissions from burning fossil fuels and other emitting activities Without carbon capture, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require a 100 percent cut in the use of coal and a 70 percent cut in the use of natural gas by 2050, the report said.
‘Misallocated’ Global Capital Raises Climate Risk, UN Report Warns - The world’s leading climate finance experts and economists warn of a “persistent misallocation of global capital” as too much money continues to pour into fossil fuels and too little is channeled to clean energy. In its latest assessment of global efforts to contain climate change, published Monday, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a stark alert that the world is on track to miss its target to limit global warming. Finance is both driving the problem and a “critical enabler” in the energy transition, the panel said. The IPCC findings add more cause for alarm amid signs that the energy transition is backsliding, as some nations scramble for polluting alternatives to Russia’s gas in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. Financing for coal-related projects is running at a rate that’s more than double last year’s pace. The world already faced “large macroeconomic headwinds” hampering climate finance “even before COVID-19,” said the IPCC authors. The war serves to compound these as the window to act narrows further. The world stands at a tipping point or “pattern break” in the status quo, said Edward Mason, director at Generation Investment Management, a green finance firm co-founded by former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, referring to the war in Ukraine and its impacts on the energy transition. “We mustn’t lose sight of the bigger picture.” For the world to meet its climate target requires a “substantial reduction in overall fossil-fuel use” that “will leave a substantial amount of fossil fuels unburned,” the IPCC said. And yet the finance sector continues to fund fossil-fuel development. Over half of the 150 biggest financial institutions globally have no restrictions on financing oil and gas, and two-thirds of the world’s largest banks and asset managers are failing to set concrete climate targets for this decade, according to two separate analyses by NGOs. For their part, a whopping 83% of the world’s biggest polluting firms are yet to map a meaningful path to net-zero emissions, a leading investor alliance found.Such shortcomings among financiers and corporations amount to a “systemic underpricing” of climate risk in the financial system, according to the IPCC. They also fly in the face of these finance firms’ public pledges, notably the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero. Launched at the COP26 climate summit last November, GFANZ members worth a combined $130 trillion committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest and delivering their fair share of 50% emissions reductions this decade.
IPCC report: Oil, renewables and 'stranded assets' - The world’s leading climate scientists issued an urgent call yesterday to transform the global energy sector by sharply pulling back on fossil fuel consumption and turning en masse toward renewable electricity and other clean sources.The 2,913-page report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that “substantial energy system changes” would be required for the world to observe the Paris climate accord’s goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. Yesterday’s report is the final installment in a three-part climate assessment by the IPCC, with the first two sections released in August and February (Greenwire, April 4).For example, the “widespread electrification of end uses,” from cars to buildings’ space heat and stoves, should be a common cornerstone of national transitions, according to the IPCC, the United Nations’ body for evaluating the science related to climate change.Without carbon capture, coal and gas plants would need to retire about 23 years earlier than expected in order to hold global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and 17 years earlier in the case of the 2 C limit, according to the report.To limit warming to 1.5 C, global coal use must drop 95 percent by 2050, the IPCC said. Oil must fall by roughly 60 percent and gas by about 45 percent (Greenwire, April 4). But the IPCC outlined numerous challenges facing a transition to low-carbon energy, including higher energy consumption that is countering declining energy intensity in many regions and industrial emissions, which have grown faster than emissions in any other sector the past two decades because of increased extraction and production of basic materials.Even if carbon capture systems are widely deployed, staying within the Paris Agreement’s limits “will strand fossil-related assets,” likely to the tune of trillions of dollars, wrote the IPCC’s scientists.That is especially true for coal, with oil and gas growing more vulnerable as 2050 approaches.Today, new investments in unabated coal power should be ruled out as “inconsistent” with the Paris Agreement goals, according to the report.During a press conference yesterday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres hammered home that point.“Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals, but the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels,” Guterres said.“Investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure is moral and economic madness,” said Guterres, a former prime minister of Portugal. “Such investments will soon be stranded assets, a blot on the landscape and a blight on investment portfolios.”
Carbon removal 'unavoidable' as climate dangers grow — IPCC - Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is essential to meet the Paris Agreement’s looming climate targets, according to a major report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It’s all but impossible to achieve net-zero carbon emissions — the key to halting global warming — without sucking massive amounts of greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere using trees, technology and other carbon sinks, the report says. But if the world relies too heavily on carbon removal, society runs the risk of overshooting the Paris targets — and experiencing increasingly severe climate impacts. That’s the delicate line for carbon dioxide removal, making it an often fraught topic among climate scientists, activists and policymakers. Carbon removal is increasingly regarded as an essential tool in the arsenal against climate change. It can be achieved in a variety of ways, some more proven at large scales than others. Many landscapes, like forests and wetlands, naturally soak up carbon out of the air. There are also technological means of pulling carbon back out of the atmosphere, using special minerals or carbon-sucking machines. But just how strongly carbon removal can — or should — be wielded is a matter of debate. The IPCC report released yesterday digs into some of these questions. It includes an entire section on carbon dioxide removal, making it a more prominent feature of discussion than it has been in previous IPCC reports. The report is the final installment in a three-part climate assessment from the IPCC. While the first two sections focused on the science of climate change and its effects on the planet, the last installment outlines the steps that human societies can take to cut greenhouse gas emissions and halt global warming. The report presents a stark message to the world. Meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate targets is still technically possible — but it requires an immediate, rapid and coordinated international effort to overhaul human society on Earth (Greenwire, April 4). Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious target, would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall by nearly half over the next decade. And the world would need to achieve net-zero emissions by the early 2050s. The report explores a wide range of actions the world can take to make this happen. Emissions must fall swiftly across all sectors of human society, including energy, transportation, buildings, industry and land use. It’s technically possible to eliminate most emissions from human activities by switching to low- or zero-carbon forms of electricity and fuel, using more sustainable forms of forestry and agriculture, conserving natural carbon sinks, and so on. But there are some difficult-to-decarbonize sectors that will, even with the best of efforts, likely have some residual emissions left over. That’s where carbon dioxide removal comes in. Offsetting these residual emissions is necessary to reach net-zero carbon, the only way to fully halt global warming. That makes carbon removal “unavoidable,” according to the new IPCC report. But, in theory, the world could take it a step further. Instead of merely offsetting hard-to-scrub emissions, carbon removal could potentially be used to pull out more CO2 than the world is pouring in. It’s a concept known as “negative emissions” — and if successful, it could actually lower the Earth’s temperatures.
IPCC: Renewable technology can stop climate change right now - The last in a series of major United Nations climate reports arrived with a thud on Monday. But if the previous two reports chronicled all the ways in which the climate crisis is an existential danger, the new report is a call to action. Call it the get-shit-done report.The most important top-line message from it to the world: We have the technology we need to create a habitable future available to us right now. It’s largely money and politics standing in the way of getting to that better place.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesizes years of research to give us the lay of the climate land. The report put out on Monday is the final in a trio that have come out over the past year. U.N. Secretary General António Guterres called a February report focused on climate adaptation an “atlas of human suffering,” so suffice to say, they haven’t exactly been uplifting reads.The latest iteration certainly contains its fair share of doom and gloom — Guterres called it a "damning" verdict of the world's failures — noting that the world’s current climate pledges make it unlikely that we’ll hit the 1.5-degree-Celsius target that’s crucial for the continued survival of many small island nations and communities whose livelihoods depend on keeping the climate stable. But the report also makes it clear that that is a choice; if the world collectively chose to, the authors write, it could get on the right track starting today."Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals," Guterres said at a press conference. "But the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels."The report notes that’s true from a technological as well as a cost perspective. Solar and wind are among the key technologies ready for prime time, as are deeply unsexy energy efficiency technologies like insulation, heat pumps, LED lights and more. The cost of these technologies has fallen steadily — or, in the case of solar panels, precipitously, by a staggering 85% over the preceding decade. That’s led to widespread deployment already.“Electricity systems powered predominantly by renewables are becoming increasingly viable,” the report said.Storing that energy will be vital to staving off the worst impacts of climate change, whether in utility-scale batteries or electric vehicles. The cost of EV battery storage also fell by 85% in the 2010s, allowing deployment to increase a hundredfold over that period. The report points out that a “variety of systemic solutions to accommodate large shares of renewables in the energy system have emerged.”In the world of climate mitigation, anything that costs less than $100 per ton to cut carbon is generally a pretty good deal. To underscore just how good a deal wind and solar are, the two technologies alone could shave nearly 8 gigatons — that is 8 billion tons — of greenhouse gas emissions off the global budget by 2030 for less than that price per ton.Other tech solutions ready to be deployed this decade for similarly bargain-basement prices include EVs, getting more butts on e-bike s eats and in public transit and more efficient electric appliances in homes around the world. The report shows building out more efficient, walkable cities and the aforementioned efficient appliances and homes are among a suite of demand-side tweaks that could cut greenhouse gas emissions 40% to 70% by 2050. In other words, it’s not just about the technology that delivers and stores electricity, but also about ensuring we use it in a smart manner.
Climate change could cost U.S. $2 trillion a year by 2100: White House -Floods, drought, wildfires and hurricanes made worse by climate change could cost the U.S. federal budget about $2 trillion each year — a 7.1% loss in annual revenue — by the end of the century, the White House said in an assessment on Monday.The analysis by the Office of Management and Budget, which administers the federal budget, also warned the U.S. government could spend an additional $25 billion to $128 billion each year in areas such as coastal disaster relief, flood insurance, crop insurance, health-care insurance, wildland fire suppression and flooding at federal facilities."The fiscal risk of climate change is immense," Candace Vahlsing, the OMB's associate director for climate, and Danny Yagan, its chief economist, wrote in a blog published on Monday."Climate change threatens communities and sectors across the country, including through floods, drought, extreme heat, wildfires, and hurricanes that affect the U.S. economy and the lives of everyday Americans," they wrote. "Future damages could dwarf current damages if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated."The news comes the same day as the United Nations' climate science panel'shighly anticipated report, which warned that slashing global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels will require greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025.The OMB's analysis warned that intensifying wildfires could increase federal fire suppression costs by between $1.55 billion and $9.60 billion each year, representing an increase between 78% and 480% by the end of the century. Meanwhile, more frequent hurricanes could drive up annual spending on coastal-disaster response to between $22 billion and $94 billion by 2100. Additionally, 12,000 federal buildings across the country could be flooded by 10 feet due to rising sea levels, with total replacement costs of more than $43.7 billion, the analysis said. That scenario would be on the high side, though. A 2021 report from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a range of sea level rise in the U.S. between 0.6 meters (nearly two feet) and 2.2 meters (just over seven feet) by the end of the century.
Democrat presses EPA administrator on climate rule pace: ‘How long do you think you have?’ - A Democratic senator on Wednesday pressed the Biden administration about why it has yet to complete certain climate regulations, raising concerns about how long it is taking. In a rare moment of intraparty tension, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) questioned EPA Administrator Michael Regan about how long it is taking the agency to develop new climate regulations for pollution sources including power plants, chemical plants, oil refineries and aircrafts. “How long do you think you have?” Whitehouse asked. In response, Regan said the agency only had limited resources and blamed “the state that the EPA found itself in when President Biden was elected.” “Since I’ve been there for the past year, we’ve got staff working nights and weekends,” the administrator said. “I’m really proud of the record that we have when you look at the rules that we have proposed and finalized within the first year of the Biden administration.” “I’m am damn proud of what this agency has done over the past year with the resources that we have,” he added. “The problem is that in an emergency, effort doesn’t count, results count,” Whitehouse shot back. On power plants in particular, Regan noted an ongoing Supreme Court case that could limit which tools the agency has at its disposal. “We’re going to be ready to go as soon as the Supreme Court rules,” he said. Whitehouse also asked Regan whether it was fair to say the agency’s proposed regulation for heavy-duty trucks and buses is “weaker than California’s and does not require increased zero-emission trucks and buses.” Regan described the rule as “step one” and said there would be “multiple steps” for regulating heavy-duty vehicles.
Biden administration announces $500M for energy efficiency in public schools - The Biden administration on Monday announced a $500 million grant program to improve energy efficiency in public schools. The initiative, paid for with funds from the bipartisan infrastructure law, will prioritize schools facing the greatest need, according to administration officials. Vice President Harris is set to announce the initiative Monday afternoon at Neville Thomas Elementary School in Washington, D.C., which installed solar panels in 2016 that now comprise 10 percent of its energy usage. “Public K-12 districts spend roughly $8 billion a year on energy bills, meaning energy efficiency improvements to HVAC systems, lighting, insulation and other energy upgrades can unlock significant savings to go towards student learning and success,” a senior administration official said on a call with reporters Monday. The administration also announced the deployment of new online guidance for the $5 billion that the bipartisan law puts toward energy-efficient school buses. The senior official noted that under the status quo, students are frequently exposed to diesel exhaust from idling buses. “Studies have shown that poor air quality inside classrooms takes a toll on student concentration and performance, and diesel exhaust exposure is linked to increased school absences. Reducing pollution will provide better health and educational outcomes, particularly in low-income communities and communities of color that face underinvestment and high pollution,” the official said. The announcement comes against the backdrop of the Biden administration’s broader goal of cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. In an executive order in late 2021, Biden called for the federal government to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. With the more ambitious Build Back Better package stalled in the Senate, executive orders and funds from the bipartisan infrastructure law are seen as some of the White House’s best chances to implement major environmental agenda items, particularly if Democrats lose control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections.
Biden unveils strongest fuel efficiency rule yet - The Transportation Department today released a new fuel economy rule to prevent 5.5 trillion pounds of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere and save billions of gallons of gas by midcentury. The new corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards require an 8 percent annual increase in fuel efficiency for model years 2024 and 2025 and a 10 percent annual increase for model year 2026. While the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration rule is not the strongest option the agency considered, it marks the most aggressive standard to date and will result in a fleetwide average of 49 mpg by 2026, up from today’s standard of 36 mpg, according to NHTSA. “Car manufacturers will be required to produce cars, minivans, SUVs and pickup trucks that get better mileage than ever before, and the benefits are going to be real for drivers across America,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said during a press conference announcing the rule. “Today’s rule is going to save 234 billion gallons of fuel by 2050 and move us into a less dependent future,” he added. Buttigieg warned about the dangers of dependence of foreign oil, citing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiling the oil market. President Joe Biden has banned imports of oil and gas from Russia, one of the world’s biggest producers, and ordered the largest-ever withdrawal from American oil reserves. But Buttigieg said even if all oil used in the United States was produced domestically, prices would still be vulnerable to global fluctuations. “Which means that until we achieve a form of energy independence that is based on clean energy created here at home, American citizens will still be vulnerable to wild price hikes like we’re seeing right now during [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s war,” he said. Buttigieg called on Congress to pass electric vehicle tax incentives to lower the price of EVs and spur adoption. Biden’s imperiled “Build Back Better Act” included up to $12,500 in EV incentives for American and union-made cars and trucks. Transportation is the single-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the country, and passenger vehicles make up the bulk of that heat-trapping pollution. While NHTSA’s final rule is stronger than its initial proposal, which sought an 8 percent efficiency increase through model year 2026, the standard is not the strongest version the agency considered. That option would have required a 10 percent annual increase for model year 2024 to 2026 and would have limited certain flexibilities that climate advocates say will dilute the rule’s real-world efficacy.
U.S. demand for renewable gas to jump 45-fold over next 20 years -In New York, BloombergNEF reports that U.S. demand for renewable natural gas that can be produced from waste and other renewable sources could jump 45-fold over the next two decades as utilities seek to reduce their carbon emissions. Consumption of so-called renewable gas, which so far has been mostly used to replace diesel in truck and bus fleets, could reach as much as 3.15 trillion cubic feet per year by 2040 as it becomes a “key decarbonization tool” for gas utilities, BNEF analyst Jade Patterson said in a report Tuesday. That would compare with about 70 billion cubic feet in 2021. Renewable gas could potentially substitute as much as 12% of current U.S. demand, up from less than 1%, if technologies still in early stages of development are implemented in a commercial scale, according to the report. That includes the ability to convert wood residues into gas through a process known as thermal gasification.
The hydrogen bombshell - A new report from Energy Innovation, an energy and environmental policy research firm, goes deep on hydrogen and its use in cleaning up utilities. The reason the analysis struck fear into my heart? It shows that hydrogen is unlikely to help decarbonize buildings at any meaningful scale — but it could make our homes and infrastructure less safe. Hydrogen is having a moment. Utilities and startups alike are racing to bring the molecule mainstream. It admittedly has its appeal.
- Hydrogen can be burned with zero greenhouse gas emissions and it can be blended with methane gas to reduce its emissions. Mixing it in with gas used to heat homes or cooking could, in theory, help clean up the building sector that 38% of all emissions globally are tied to.
- But producing hydrogen requires a lot of energy, often fossil-fueled energy. While there are some promising methods to make it using renewables, they’re still not quite ready for prime time because they’re more expensive than their fossil-fueled counterparts.
- You can even create hydrogen using nuclear power. It’s called — I kid you not — pink hydrogen. It’s also expensive, though.
- Nevertheless, utilities are hot for hydrogen; as of late last year, utilities across the U.S. had announced 26 hydrogen pilot projects.
- VCs are also plowing money into hydrogen. That includes big names like Breakthrough Energy Ventures and Lowercarbon Capital. There’s even a fund devoted solely to clean hydrogen.
But the hydrogen dream may be a nightmare. At least as it pertains to decarbonizing buildings. (There are industrial uses where it would be very handy!) The Energy Innovation report shows that there are a series of concerns about the element that make its moment rather less … momentous. Perhaps the scariest concern? Safety. The report explains that most pipelines are not equipped to handle tiny-ass little hydrogen molecules, leading to leaks that could prove problematic from a *checks notes* catching on fire and exploding standpoint. Of the 3 million miles of pipelines in the U.S.(!!!), just 1,600 miles are dedicated hydrogen-ready ones. To safely transport hydrogen around would require a huge overhaul of the system. The report notes that hydrogen “carries a higher risk of flame flashback — i.e., when a flame travels from a burner back into the gas line — in appliances designed to run on natural gas, increasing explosion risk.” Which, uh, sounds bad? Then there’s cost and scale. The report notes that regulators should “exercise skepticism” of any utility proposals that foist the cost of blending hydrogen with methane gas onto ratepayers.
- Aside from the whole potentially blowing up ratepayers’ houses thing, the economics don’t look great for hydrogen either.
- The report found that the cleanest hydrogen — that is, hydrogen made using renewables, known as green hydrogen — is currently the most expensive. And using it would double or even quadruple the price of methane gas.
- Not all utilities are planning to use green hydrogen, of course. But for those that do, it could leave ratepayers coughing up two to four times more on their energy bills, according to the report.
- We’ve experienced how nasty the unexpected increase in gas prices is right now. The prospect of going through that for projects that don’t even have the expected greenhouse gas reduction return on investment and could be explosive? No thanks.
Climate change: Wind and solar reach milestone as demand surges -- Wind and solar generated 10% of global electricity for the first time in 2021, a new analysis shows.Fifty countries get more than a tenth of their power from wind and solar sources, according to research from Ember, a climate and energy think tank.As the world's economies rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021, demand for energy soared.Demand for electricity grew at a record pace. This saw a surge in coal power, rising at the fastest rate since 1985.The research shows the growth in the need for electricity last year was the equivalent of adding a new India to the world's grid.Solar and wind and other clean sources generated 38% of the world's electricity in 2021. For the first time wind turbines and solar panels generated 10% of the total.The share coming from wind and sun has doubled since 2015, when the Paris climate agreement was signed.The fastest switching to wind and solar took place in the Netherlands, Australia, and Vietnam. All three have moved a tenth of their electricity demand from fossil fuels to green sources in the last two years."The Netherlands is a great example of a more northern latitude country proving that it's not just where the Sun shines, it's also about having the right policy environment that makes the big difference in whether solar takes off," said Hannah Broadbent from Ember.Vietnam also saw spectacular growth, particularly in solar which rose by over 300% in just one year."In the case of Vietnam, there was a massive step up in solar generation and it was driven by feed-in tariffs - money the government pays you for generating electricity - which made it very attractive for households and for utilities to be deploying large amounts of solar," said Dave Jones, Ember's global lead."What we saw with that was a massive step up in solar generation last year, which didn't just meet increased electricity demand, but it also led to a fall in both coal and gas generation."Despite the growth and the fact that some countries like Denmark now get more than 50% of their electricity from wind and solar, coal power also saw a remarkable rise in 2021. A large majority of the increased demand for electricity in 2021 was met by fossil fuels with coal fired electricity rising by 9%, the fastest rate since 1985.Much of the rise in coal use was in Asian countries including China and India - but the increase in coal was not matched by gas use which increased globally by only 1%, indicating that rising prices for gas have made coal a more viable source of electricity.
Federal study suggests Calif. EVs are bending gasoline curve - Federal energy data crunchers have noticed an unusual trend among California drivers: They are using less gasoline to travel the same number of miles. This is a deviation from the long-standing and locked relationship between vehicle miles traveled — VMT — and gasoline consumption. The reason could be the state’s strong adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, which released the data in a Wednesday newsletter, noted that almost 40 percent of the country’s EVs are registered in California. If this trend holds and expands to other states, it could have national implications for oil consumption and for the carbon emissions that worsen climate change. Consumer interest in EVs has skyrocketed this year, along with the sticker shock of high gasoline prices caused by the war in Europe. However, because automakers’ production of these vehicles is still in its early stages, the availability of EVs remains low. But California provides a window into what might happen as more EVs hit the market. “California, which exhibited large disparities between VMT and gasoline sales, also has a relatively higher penetration of HEV, PHEV, and BEV as part of the state’s light-duty vehicle fleet,” EIA noted. The terms refer to hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles. In general, the EIA said, the United States last year bounced back to burning nearly as much gasoline as it did before the pandemic, or 8.3 million barrels per day. But the picture varies state by state. Analysts cautioned that it is hard to tease out the exact reasons, as population growth, employment and work-at-home trends caused by the pandemic affect how many miles people travel and how much gas they use. EIA tried to discern how much difference low-emissions vehicles were making in California by looking at the data through two prisms: gasoline consumed per capita and gasoline consumed per 1,000 vehicle miles traveled. By the miles-traveled metric, gasoline sales last year dropped 10 percent compared to the pre-pandemic average. During the same one-year time frame, gasoline sold per capita dropped to a lesser degree, by only 6 percent. The difference, researchers estimated, could be due to the presence of more EVs that don’t burn gasoline.
Lithium-ion roadblocks drive development of US-based alternatives for grid battery storage - There is a growing focus on emerging battery technologies that use domestic minerals and elements because supply chain constraints are impeding lithium-ion battery storage. According to university, government and industry officials, alternate battery chemistries must and can become cost-competitive. To help meet growing decarbonization goals, preferred alternatives to lithium-ion need to be long-duration, with at least 10 hours of output, and have minimal or low toxicity, experts agreed at an April 1 session of MIT's 2022 Energy Conference. Emerging grid storage technologies in the running include sodium and iron-air batteries, ones using stacks of retired electric vehicle car batteries with considerable life remaining, and those reusing metals from recycled EV batteries. Lithium-ion batteries are the dominant technology used for energy storage today but since the start of the war in Ukraine, the price of imported lithium has gone up twofold, said MIT professor Yang Shao-Horn. It is "now the most expensive component" in lithium-ion batteries, she told conference participants. The price of other key metals has also soared. "This sharp increase in the cost of lithium potentially can drive other [storage] technologies and move them faster," she said, pointing to sodium-ion battery chemistries as one example. This technology is "moving rapidly," nearly matching lithium-ion's battery performance, with costs expected to be "substantially lower," Shao-Horn noted. President Biden highlighted the need for domestically-sourced technologies March 31 when invoking the Defense Production Act to reduce reliance on foreign imports of key elements and metals used in the soaring grid battery storage and EV markets. Biden's move authorizes the Department of Defense "to support the production and processing of minerals and materials used for large capacity batteries" while ensuring "strong environmental, labor, community, and tribal consultation standards." "You can't have high toxicity," "As costs have come down, new technologies have become unlocked," a trend that's expected to continue, Winter said. He stressed that both domestic sources of battery elements and local battery manufacturing are key. If batteries are headed to the U.S. market, they need to come from the U.S., if used in Europe, they need to come from Europe, or if used in India, they must come from India.
Biden’s Battery Metals Boost Could Ease U.S. Dependence On China -President Joe Biden fired up mining companies, battery makers and environmentalists last week when he invoked Cold War powers to encourage domestic production of critical battery minerals for electric vehicles.The president used the Defense Production Act — wielded by Harry Truman to make steel for the Korean War, and by Donald Trump to spur mask production in 2020 — to add lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt and manganese to the list of items deemed critical for national defense. The move paves the way for companies aiming to mine, process or recycle these minerals in the U.S. to access a $750 million fund administered by the Defense Department.Mining advocates say three-quarters of a billion dollars is a drop in the bucket when you consider this covers both military and civilian supply chains — everything from airplanes and bomb materials, to rare earth magnets and energy storage. They’re more excited about the symbolic value of Biden’s gesture — that it could mark a shift in U.S. industrial policy and a demonstration of how far he’s willing to go to compete with China and further his climate agenda.The battery industry is hopeful Biden’s act will lead Congress to earmark larger sums to support the effort, particularly more mining and processing in the U.S. Reducing the U.S.’s dependence on China for battery materials is a uniquely bipartisan issue, one that could draw support from someone like West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who has stymied Biden’s economic and climate agenda but also expressed support for domestic battery manufacturing, “It’s obviously interesting to Senator Manchin, and very important to the Biden administration.” Funding could come in the form of tax breaks folded into the federal budget for the production of specific minerals, or even a resurrection of Biden’s Build Back Better legislation, which contained consumer tax credits for EV purchases, Gier said.This is just the speculation of highly focused observers, and there’s no indication any moves in this direction are actually afoot in Congress. But it’s clear such a push would be a tightrope walk for Biden. In a speech last Thursday, the president took pains to acknowledge the concerns of his fellow Democrats, who have been pushing for an overhaul of the nation’s mining laws to strengthen protections for public land, water and Native communities.“There’s no situation in which I’m going to feel good about giving even more subsidies to the mining industry,” Raul Grijalva, a Democrat from Arizona who chairs the House committee on natural resources, said in a statement last week. “I’m heartened, however, that the White House recognizes the fundamental flaws in the rules governing mining on public lands and is committed to putting much-needed safeguards in place.”On the other side of the aisle, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski told reporters that nothing Biden has done addresses the real bottleneck for the U.S. to produce critical minerals: mining permits.“They had a climate policy and not much of an energy policy,” she told my colleague Steve Dennis in the halls of Congress last week. “Up to this point in time, it’s been more talk than action.” ;’
To meet its clean energy goals, the US might go mining in the rainforest - The United States is in a mad dash to usher in the era of green energy as it works to increase its lithium reserves and reduce dependency on fossil fuels. However, in order to reach its clean energy goals, the U.S. is going to need far more lithium than it currently has in its possession, PBS reported. However, in order for the U.S. to grow its mineral reserves so that it can produce green technology, it must participate in an extraction process that is wildly unclean and faces challenges from environmentalists, indigenous peoples interest groups, and burdensome government regulations. There is also the issue that there is only one active lithium mine in the continental U.S. — despite lithium reserves being abundant across the globe. The lithium available in this Nevada mine reportedly isn’t enough to meet the growing amount required to develop rechargeable lithium-ion batteries commonly found in electric vehicles. Currently, much of the world’s lithium supply is sourced from South America and Australia, with China dominating the global manufacturing and distribution of lithium-ion batteries. The U.S. currently produces less than 2% of the world’s lithium supply despite having nearly 4% of the estimated global lithium reserve. “Nobody really foresaw this huge spike in demand,” Tim Crowley, the vice president of government affairs for Lithium Nevada, said. “We owned the lithium space for a long time, and we forfeited it to China.” In order to increase lithium production, the U.S. must either expand mining and processing operations in places like Chile — home to the world’s largest known lithium reserves — which could involve the removal and destruction of parts of the Chilean rainforest — or expand its domestic production efforts, which would require open-pit mining or brine extraction to force the lithium-rich brine to the surface. Either way, activist groups like the far-left Sierra Club have warned that increased lithium production efforts run the risk of harming lands sacred to indigenous peoples and endangering fragile ecosystems that are home to some of the world’s rarest and most endangered species. However, Glenn Miller, emeritus professor of environmental sciences at the University of Nevada, suggested that increased lithium production efforts could, in the long run, be better for the environment by reducing global dependency on fossil fuel-burning cars. He said, “A domestic source has tremendous value. Then we can do things that only China is doing with production.” The Biden administration has planned for 500,000 EV charging stations to be erected throughout the country as one of its infrastructure goals. This, and the administration’s push for more American companies to produce and more American citizens to purchase EVs, will require a substantial amount of lithium.
Biden mining order won't change biggest hurdle: Permits - President Joe Biden might want to see more domestic mining for clean energy minerals, but industry insiders and experts say his deployment of the Defense Production Act won’t speed up what they see as the biggest impediment: federal environmental permitting.Last week, Biden invoked the 1950 law to liberate funding for fledgling mining projects across the country that one day could produce five minerals crucial in the manufacturing of electric car batteries — lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and manganese.Biden’s stated goal was to invigorate the U.S. mining industry in order for the country to become independent from mineral supply lines controlled by China and Russia. As White House senior officials explained, the order was part of a “push to achieve real American energy independence.”Biden’s order is expected to open a fire hose of Defense Department funds for activities typically required to build a mine, like feasibility studies — an investment that was celebrated by mining industry officials last week. But companies receiving those funds won’t see special permitting benefits to further aid development of their projects, a fact that mining industry players said will constrain the benefits of investing government funds.DOD spokesperson Jessica Maxwell confirmed in an email to E&E News that the department views the Defense Production Act as “completely unrelated to the permitting process.”With this being the case, said Botir Sharipov, a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service, “it will still take many years for new domestic projects to be developed” given existing environmental laws and regulations. Andrew Otis, a partner with the law firm Locke Lord that represents mining giant Glencore PLC, who said he was speaking for himself, said he doesn’t “really see this changing things very much.”Valuable mineral resources in the U.S. are often found on federal lands, particularly out West. That means mining projects will be subject to the full range of the federal government’s environmental laws and public engagement requirements, which can include the National Environmental Policy Act, the Clean Water Act, Clean Air Act, Endangered Species Act and Administrative Procedures Act, in addition to applicable state laws.Environmentalists say this robust permitting regime forces mining projects in the U.S. to be subject to higher health and safety standards than seen in other countries.“As with any other kind of industrial activity, we need to be cognizant of the environmental impacts,” said Lisa Belenky, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity. She agreed that the order won’t “override the existing legal protections” against mining that her group opposes, such as the proposed Rhyolite Ridge lithium project in Nevada.
Is the Salton Sea hiding enough lithium to power America? the world transitions away from fossil fuels, electric vehicles are becoming more ubiquitous. But despite their environmental benefits, they still have a price. The batteries that power them rely on a limited resource: lithium. But some say California’s so-called “Lithium Valley” could be a vast powerhouse for the next century’s battery needs. A team of scientists is planning to map out deep-earth lithium to see if it can sustainably supply America’s insatiable demand for the element. The challenge: As electronic devices and electric vehicles become more widespread and our appetite for lithium grows, a lithium supply crunch looms. Just last year, the price of lithium jumped by more than 400%. By 2030, Cadillac says they will only offer an all-electric lineup of vehicles. GM pledges to go all electric by 2035, and Honda plans to phase out all gas cars by 2040. As more car manufacturers aim to switch to all EV inventories in the next decade, where will they get all that lithium? Recycling batteries is making some progress. But it isn’t efficient enough to solve our supply needs. And even though researchers are close to finding alternatives to lithium batteries — like 3D-printed solid-state batteries, batteries made from trees or with kevlar membranes, and flow batteries — nothing available today matches the efficiency of lithium. The promise: The Salton Sea is a land-locked salt lake in the California desert. As odd as it sounds, the salty, superheated water reservoir below the surface promises to provide an abundance of geothermal energy. This renewable energy is produced when hot fluids are brought up from deep down, and the heat is converted to electricity. “The potential is there for – again, back-of-the-envelope calculations – something like 50 to 100 years’ worth of lithium production.” Currently, 11 commercial facilities are producing energy in the Salton Sea geothermal field. Once the fluid is cooled, it is typically returned to its origins deep underground. But many scientists hope to get an energy two-for-one — by extracting lithium from it first. Mud volcanoes next to the ESM Featherstone geothermal plant near the Salton Sea. Credit: Michael McKibben The deep-earth chemicals beneath the Salton Sea could contain enough lithium to cover all of America’s domestic battery demands. But only if it can be sustainably purified and extracted — a process that isn’t nearly as easy as lithium mining. But as it is currently done in China and Australia, mining lithium from open pits can pollute the air and groundwater and deplete water resources. And even with other extraction options, current mining techniques can’t keep up with the demand. “The Salton Sea geothermal system is the primary potential geothermal resource for lithium in the United States, and it’s a world-class resource,” said Berkeley Lab’s Pat Dobson. “But there is a wide range of estimates in terms of the size of the resource, and also not a great understanding of where the lithium comes from.”
Occidental is Eyeing California’s Clean Fuels Market to Fund Texas Carbon Removal Plant - Occidental Petroleum is seeking to sell credits in California’s transportation carbon market to help finance the construction of what would be the world’s largest industrial carbon dioxide removal plant. The operation would effectively invert what Occidental has done for a century, by taking carbon out of the air and sending it underground, even if on a relatively small scale. But there’s a twist. Occidental has said it plans to use some or most of the carbon dioxide it captures from the Texas plant to squeeze more petroleum out of the ground, by pumping it into aging oil fields. As a result, the California carbon market, which is meant to help lower the climate emissions of transportation in the state, could supply tens of millions of dollars to help extract more oil, thereby contributing more emissions. Occidental’s plans raise one of environmental advocates’ biggest concerns about carbon removal technologies: that they will be used by oil companies to delay the far more urgent task of rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels. By allowing companies to sell credits for captured carbon dioxide used to produce oil, some advocates warn, California’s program is poised to do just that. Indeed, Chief Executive Vicki Hollub has said Occidental will expand oil production, rather than curtail it, using captured CO2 to produce what the company is audaciously branding as “net-zero oil.” People familiar with Occidental’s plans say that accessing California’s transportation market is critical to financing the “direct air capture” plant, which the company has said would cost up to $1 billion and would initially pull half-a-million metric tons of the greenhouse gas out of the air every year. Occidental says it will break ground this year in West Texas, near Odessa. If the project is completed as planned, it would mark a quantum leap for a technology that some scientists and advocates say could play an important role in meeting climate targets. Pressed by a raft of climate disasters, regional and national governments across the globe are rushing to support carbon removal technologies. The bipartisan infrastructure bill that Congress passed last year included $3.5 billion to build direct air capture“hubs.” Meanwhile, New York, Washington, the European Union and others have enacted or are considering a range of possible incentives, from clean-fuel policies like California’s to government procurement programs for carbon dioxide removal. But some environmental advocates say that many of the policies that are emerging, including California’s clean fuels market and a federal carbon capture tax credit, have been shaped by oil companies to their own advantage, diluting the climate benefits.
Crypto mining moratoriums aim to fight fossil fuel use - In a first-of-its-kind bill, New York lawmakers are proposing a moratorium on crypto mining, citing its enormous energy consumption as a threat to the state’s environmental and climate goals. The bill is currently making its way through the state legislature after passing the state Assembly’s Environmental Conservation Committee last month. If successful, it could set a precedent for similar regulatory actions at the federal level. “This legislation coming from New York is a reflection that a lot of the [crypto] industry is here, but also that we take climate action very seriously and hope that leaders of other states and the nation will follow,” says Liz Moran, New York policy advocate at the environmental nonprofit Earthjustice. New York is a leading region for crypto mining, especially upstate where companies can take advantage of large amounts of cheap hydropower. It already has some of the country’s most stringent rules around cryptocurrencies—mostly to protect against fraud—but legislators are becoming increasingly alarmed by the industry’s environmental impact as well. The issue doesn’t directly stem from the buying, selling, or trading of coins, but the mining process used to validate transactions. Proof-of-work mining, the primary way of generating new coins and verifying monetary exchanges in the decentralized system, is especially energy-intensive and produces tons of e-waste. During this process, high-capacity computers that run on cheap energy, wherever and in whatever form that may be, compete against each other to solve complex equations and earn a reward in return. The state’s proposed moratorium calls for a two-year pause on issuing new air permits, and renewing existing permits, for fossil fuel-powered facilities that provide energy for proof-of-work mining operations.
Pennsylvania court blocks governor's carbon emissions plan - A Pennsylvania court on Tuesday blocked the centerpiece of Gov. Tom Wolf’s plan to fight climate change, the latest challenge to the Democrat's effort to make Pennsylvania the first major fossil fuel state to adopt a carbon pricing policy. Commonwealth Court, in a one-line unsigned order, said it will not allow the official publication of the regulation “pending further order of the court.” The regulation would require fossil fuel-fired power plants to pay a price for every ton of carbon dioxide they emit starting July 1 in a state that has long been one of the nation’s biggest polluters and power producers. The regulation was to be published on Saturday. But the court sided with leaders of the Republican-controlled Legislature, who just a day earlier had failed in their final legislative attempt to block the regulation. Wolf's administration said Tuesday night only that it was reviewing the order and is “committed to ensuring that this regulatory process continues to move forward.” Republican lawmakers in the nation’s No. 2 natural gas state and its No. 3 coal-mining state contend that the regulation is an illegal use of regulatory authority. They say legislative approval is required to force power plants to buy hundreds of millions of dollars in credits annually that the state could then spend on clean energy or energy efficiency programs. Wolf in 2019 ordered his administration to start working on a regulation to bring Pennsylvania into a multi-state consortium of Northeastern and mid-Atlantic states, called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which sets a price and declining limits on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. The plan has won approval from regulatory bodies and signoff by the governor’s office of general counsel and the attorney general’s office under reviews for form and legality. Wolf has insisted that his administration has the authority to regulate carbon dioxide under existing state air pollution laws and Democratic lawmakers say the measure is desperately needed to act against climate change and speed up Pennsylvania’s transition to the future of a clean energy-based economy. Republican lawmakers, however, say that paying a price for carbon dioxide emissions will close down power plants, balloon consumer electric bills, threaten national security and destroy Pennsylvania’s growing natural gas-based industrial economy.
We need a pipeline to pump courage into the Statehouse | The Gazette -Iowa lawmakers are poised to kick the debate over carbon pipelines down the road, and past the November election. Maybe we need a pipeline to pump some political courage into the Golden Dome of Wisdom. As you may have heard, three planned pipeline projects would pump carbon spewed by ethanol production into underground storage. The main goal of the multibillion dollar projects is to toss an economic lifeline to the biofuels industry by making its products more environmentally attractive in an energy market increasingly looking to cut carbon emissions warming the planet.First out of the chute is a 2,000-mile pipeline project proposed by Summit Carbon Solutions, sending liquid carbon from ethanol plants in Iowa to North Dakota for underground storage. Summit has told state regulators it wants to use eminent domain to take land for the projects from landowners unwilling to agree to voluntary easements. Ethanol interests are powerful in Iowa. But so is the impulse to protect property rights. The collision of these two priorities has created a political minefield, particularly for Republicans who are watching rural constituents agitate against the use of eminent domain. Rural opponents, their local elected officials and environmental advocates have fallen into an unusual coalition to fight the projects. “We don’t always see eye-to-eye. But we do on this,” said Carolyn Raffensperger, an environmental lawyer and executive director of the Science & Environmental Health Network, at a recent Statehouse hearing. She called carbon pipelines a “sewer system for the fossil fuel industry.” “I think the process is flawed, that’s why I’m here,” said Steve Kenkel, a Republican county supervisor from Shelby County. He contends local governments and their constituents have been left on the sidelines during the process, although the county will be expected to take on numerous new obligations if the Summit pipeline is built. “Folks, this doesn’t pass the stink test,” Kenkel said at the hearing.
EU not expected to fully ban Russian coal imports until August, sources say -- The European Union's proposed ban on coal imports from Russia is not expected to take full effect until August — a month later than expected, two sources told CNBC Thursday. Earlier this week, the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, proposed the ban in the wake of mounting evidence of atrocities by Russian troops against Ukrainians in Bucha and other areas. The original plan was to phase out coal imports within three months, an EU official, who did not want to be named due to the sensitivity of the talks, told CNBC. However, the same official added that this period had now been extended to four months — bringing the full implementation of the ban to August. "There seems to have been an effective German lobby to extend the phase-out period for existing coal contracts to four months," a second EU official confirmed to CNBC Thursday. Germany is one of the most skeptical nations when it comes to blocking energy supplies from Russia, but it's not the only one. Austria and Hungary, for instance, are questioning it too. These nations have the highest energy dependencies on Russia and argue that banning energy supplies from the country could have a bigger impact on their own economies than on Russia's. Germany, for instance, bought 21.5% of its coal from Russia in 2020. That number rose to 35.2% for oil imports and to 58.9% for natural gas, according to data from the European statistics office. Approving energy sanctions has been a major challenge for the EU, given its high dependency on Russian supplies. The region is heavily reliant on Russia's oil and natural gas, although it is less dependent on coal imports — a key reason why this is the first energy sanction the European Commission has proposed. More than 19% of the EU's coal imports came from Russia in 2020, according to official European statistics. In contrast, 36.5% of its oil imports were from Russia, as were a whopping 41.1% of its gas imports. However, momentum for a ban on Russian oil is building too. Earlier this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said her team was working on oil sanctions. "We are working on additional sanctions, including on oil imports, and we are reflecting on some of the ideas presented by the member states, such as taxes or specific payment channels such as an escrow account," she said. EU foreign affairs ministers will debate an oil ban on Monday next week, but they are unlikely to move ahead with such a measure for now as there needs to be consensus among all 27 member states to impose further sanctions.
Inside Story: Kansas, Cyber Spies, Nuclear Power and the Ukraine War - Three young Russian spies, Pavel, Mikhail and Marat, working from computers in a 27-story skyscraper at 12 Prospekt Vernadskogo in Moscow, over five years targeted the Wolf Creek nuclear power plant in Burlington, Kansas. They were on a sophisticated cyber reconnaissance mission to learn about the inner workings of the plant to prepare for a possible precision electronic assault by the Russians. That is the story that broke March 24, when the U.S. Department of Justice suddenly and somewhat mysteriously unsealed an indictment against the hapless trio. The indictment was filed under seal on Aug. 26, 2021, in the U.S. District Court in Kansas City, Kansas, and lay gathering dust for seven months. The bloody context is the devastating war Russia launched weeks ago against Ukraine. It also includes the remarkably successful psychological warfare ops that the Biden administration and its Western European allies have thrown at Russian President Vladimir Putin and his war machine. James Lewis, a nuclear cybersecurity expert, said that the DOJ indictment probably was unsealed in Kansas now because the Biden administration has fresh intelligence about the Russians and it wants those overseeing America’s critical infrastructure to be on heightened alert. “Maybe the Russians are giving more consideration to a cyberattack than in the past. It is driven by what the Russians are up to,” said Lewis, director of the Strategic Technology Program of the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington. Wolf Creek, completed in 1985, is located about 100 miles southwest of Kansas City. Evergy, formerly Kansas City Power & Light, owns 94% of Wolf Creek and the balance is owned by the Kansas Electric Power Cooperative. Evergy declined to discuss the Russian cybersecurity attack on Wolf Creek. Their statement is illuminating, however, in that it immediately references the Ukraine war. Chuck Caisley, Evergy senior vice president of public affairs, in response to a request for an interview instead sent an email that stated, “Given the current geopolitical situation and the ongoing cyber security threat posture relative to the national electrical grid, generally, we are not publicly discussing cyber security at Evergy or at Wolf Creek. In addition to not discussing our perspective, practices and protocols generally, we are not discussing this incident either.” Named in the Kansas indictment are Pavel Aleksandrovich Akulov, Mikhailovich Gavrilov and Marat Valeryevich Tyukov.
This daughter and father founded a company to bury nuclear waste by drilling deep boreholes - There is no permanent nuclear waste depository in the United States. Instead, nuclear waste is stored in dry casks at the locations of currently operating and former nuclear power plants around the country. Deep Isolation, a start-up founded by a daughter-father team in Berkeley, California, is aiming to change that. Deep Isolation plans to commercialize technology to dig 18-inch-diameter holes deep into the surface of the Earth, then slide radioactive nuclear waste in 14-foot-long canisters down into the deep boreholes. In a deep geologic repository, like a mine or a borehole, nuclear waste can slowly lose its radioactivity over the course of thousands of years without causing harm. Although nuclear energy generates negligible greenhouse gas emissions, many governments and environmental activists don't consider it a source of clean energy because there's no permanent repository to store nuclear waste.
Former DeWine aide warned governor about utility regulator before the FBI raided his home - Ohio Capital Journal --More than two years before FirstEnergy Corp. admitted to paying Ohio’s top utility regulator a $4.3 million bribe, Mike DeWine’s former campaign treasurer warned senior aides to the new governor about the eventual nominee’s “opaque and undisclosed” financial ties to the company. The warning came in a 198-page dossier alleging Sam Randazzo — a lawyer and lobbyist who represented gas companies and industrial scale electricity buyers — uses businesses registered in his name to “funnel” money from FirstEnergy to buy real estate. Indeed, between January 2013 and May 2015, Randazzo and his companies purchased eight properties worth nearly $4.1 million, according to the dossier and an independent review of property records. They include six units in Columbus, one in Cuyahoga Falls, and two in Naples, Florida. DeWine’s chief of staff, Laurel Dawson, received the packet Jan. 28, 2019. The nominating council of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, chaired by a former FirstEnergy lobbyist, had included Randazzo among four nominees given to the governor. DeWine got the final choice. J.B. Hadden — a Columbus lawyer who has represented American Electric Power; a board member of two nonprofits that control millions of AEP’s political spending; and DeWine’s campaign treasurer from 2009 to 2015 — delivered the dossier, according to a DeWine spokesman. Hadden said in a text message he thought it was important to let DeWine know what people were saying about Randazzo. At the time, Randazzo was winding down a storied career as a legal and political bulwark against renewable energy in Ohio. As a lobbyist and public official, he waged a years-long quest to kill two state programs: one requiring electric companies to sell at least 12.5% of their mix from renewable sources by 2025, and another requiring them to reduce their customers’ energy use by 22% by that same year. As both a lawyer and a lobbyist, Randazzo represented huge energy consumers like TimkenSteel and Marathon Petroleum to secure better electricity deals from Ohio utilities. He also lobbied at the statehouse for the Ohio Gas Company, a utility serving 50,000 in Northwest Ohio, and Vectren Energy,which sells and delivers gas to 4 million homes in six states. “When I spoke with him years ago, he was extremely anti-renewables and extremely anti-efficiency, to the point of being irrational,” said Leah Stokes, a political science professor at UC Santa Barbara, who wrote a book spotlighting the successful, fossil-fuel backed, 12-year campaign to roll back clean energy in Ohio. “With hindsight, it seems there were rational, monetary reasons for him to take those positions.”
Columbia Gas of Ohio rate increase proposal too high, state regulators say - Columbia Gas of Ohio is asking for an increase in its base rates that is too big, according to a report by the staff of state regulators that recommends a much smaller increase.Last year, Columbia Gas had requested that the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio raise the average customer's monthly base fee about $11 per month to $46 per month. The cost of gas, along with other fees and taxes, would be in addition to that.The request in base rates was Columbia's first since 2008.The rate increase would increase the revenue of the natural gas distribution company by about $221.4 million a year, or 21.3%But in a report issued Wednesday, the PUCO staff recommended a much smaller increase, $35.2 million to $57.6 million, an increase of 4% to 6.3% in revenue.Columbia's rate request is expected to go before the PUCO commissioners later this year for a final decision. The commissioners can follow the staff recommendation in the report or reject all of part of it.In the 255-page report, the staff took exception to several reasons for why Columbia Gas sought the increase ranging from software costs to a workout room at the company's headquarters.The rate increase is for pipelines and the system used to distribute natural gas, Columbia has said. It does not apply to the commodity itself; Columbia Gas doesn't profit from the sale of gas.
Shale Academy keeps adding services - The Utica Shale Academy continues to expand its services, making agreements with other entities to continue training people in the area for more of the jobs available. The school will have a NC3 National Signing Day celebratory event on April 14 for those students preparing to sign up for continuing training or a career. The event is just one of the ways the USA is looking to get their students not just to recover credits and graduate, but to go forward with a career or more training in the future.The USA recently announced an agreement with Youngstown State University, which will allow students attending classes at the Utica Shale Academy to take utilize the YSU Skills Accelerator. The computer based program will allow students to learn new skills such as the masters program in 3-D printing. Additionally, Watson announced the school is working on an agreement with the Columbiana County Jail, where those inmates 22 and older, who have no high school diploma or GED can earn some credits through the USA. Additionally, Watson said they will be looking at providing industry credentials in welding, practicing with the virtual welders. Other programs are being considered. Sign ups will begin in mid-May for the program. Following their release, the students could continue learning and earning credits and skills by attending some evening programming through the USA and the YSU Skills Accelerator program without having to travel to the actual school. The USA is preparing to build an indoor and outdoor welding lab, as well as a facility to store heavy equipment, like the fork lift recently donated to the school by Energy Harbor. The 4-wheel drive machine is capable of lifting 18,000 pounds. Instructors at the USA are already trained in operation and teaching the equipment, Watson said, they only needed the equipment.In preparation of building the welding labs, Watson asked the board to approve having an architectural firm make drawings of what they want to do with an agreed timeline of when it will be completed.Additionally, Watson said they recently learned it was going to cost $175,000 to run a natural gas line to the new facility. He told the board they are looking instead for a natural gas tank and a supplier.In another partnership, Watson said the school recently gave its first class at the Sustainable Opportunity Development Center in Salem in AC/DC Electric with plans to offer the class again this summer.In other matters:
- — The board approved a five-year renewal of the virtual learning agreement with Jefferson County Educational Service Center to continue providing computer graded courses for the USA’s general curriculum.
- — The board approved the new calendar for the 2022-2023 school year, which will more closely align with Southern Local’s calendar. Watson said that will help the school with transportation and cafeteria options for students.
Disposal wells topic of meeting - Marietta Times -A Veto resident talked to the Washington County Board of Commissioners about an upcoming public meeting regarding disposal wells during its Thursday meeting.The meeting is scheduled for 6 to 8 p.m. March 24 at the McDonough Auditorium at Marietta College. The public will be able to comment on applications for proposed disposal wells.Bob Lane said disposal wells are a major concern. He and Bob Wilson have about 40 wells in the Constitution area that are being flooded by these disposal wells.American Geosciences notes disposal wells are used to dispose of wastewater from the oil and gas industry, including produced waters extracted with the oil and gas and flowback waters that return to the surface after hydraulic fracturing. Lane said he and Wilson together are losing about $1,000 a day on these wells.
Utica Shale in southern Ohio is a key part of Encino Energy's operations - – The Utica Shale is proving to be more productive, with oil and natural gas wells exceeding the expectations of Encino Energy Partners. The Houston company claimed a stake in the Utica Shale in eastern Ohio with a $2 billion acquisition of Chesapeake Energy's operations here. Encino partnered with the Canada Pension Plan in 2018 to buy Chesapeake's holdings. Since making the move, Encino has drilled about 150 new wells, giving it roughly 1,000 oil and gas wells in the formation, which extends from Stark and Columbiana counties south to the Ohio River and into Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The wells have performed great and been productive, said Hardy Murchison, co-founder, president and chief executive officer of Encino Acquisition Partners. "We've been able to take something we believed would be good and make it better," Utica operations in Ohio are the most important part of Encino's business, Murchison said. The company has taken a deliberate approach to its development in the Utica Shale. It initially operated a pair of drilling rigs, but added a third. The goal has been to maintain steady growth as it navigates the oil industry's traditional boom or bust business environment. Encino operates much like a general contractor on a construction project. The company supports thousands of jobs because it works with dozens of businesses that provide a variety of services needed for drilling, Murchison said. Wells operated by Encino continue to extract more natural gas than oil, with about 70% of the product as dry gas. One factor is that oil molecules are larger and more challenging to extract from shale. Improved processes could lead to increased oil production in the future, he said. Most of the Utica drilling has been in southeast counties where gas is usually found. Murchison said oil is likely to be found in the northern and western parts of the formation. Oil produced by Encinio's Utica wells usually stays in the region, Murchison said. It's sold to refineries in Ohio, including Marathon Petroleum Co.'s facility in Canton, and processed as gasoline. Roughly half of the natural gas produced in the Utica is shipped to the Gulf Coast, and much of that is shipped to customers in Europe. The rest is used locally at gas-powered electric plants or shipped to Canada, Murchison said. Encino plans to maintain its methodical approach to developing its Utica Shale holdings. There is safety in taking things slowly, Murchison said. Fewer mistakes are made and problems can be avoided. The steady drilling allows Encino to recycle about 80% of the water used to fracture wells. The company has reduced the amount of water it has to source, as well as the amount disposed of after drilling, Murchison said.
Q&A: Federal pipeline regulator fines Energy Transfer $40M, blamed “corporate culture” for large spill into Ohio wetland - The Allegheny Front - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a $40 million fine to Texas-based energy transfer for a drilling mud spill in the eastern part of the state in 2017. The spill was connected to the company’s Rover pipeline, which carries natural gas liquids from Pennsylvania and Ohio to Canada.According to FERC, the spill revealed a “corporate culture that favored speed” over compliance. New details about the spill were first reported by Mike Soraghan of E&E News. He joined Reid Frazier of The Allegheny Front to talk about it.
- Tell us about the spill and what caused it.
- Mike Soraghan: The spill was a couple million gallons of this thick stuff called drilling mud. On its own, it’s not toxic in and of itself. But the crew had been adding diesel fuel, which is kind of a cheat when they’re drilling to ease things. The drill bit, when things are stuck, it’s maybe like pouring a little WD 40 in there. But diesel fuel is toxic. It presents a problem. You’re just not supposed to put diesel fuel in the stuff you’re pumping underground.When you’re drilling under a river or when you’re drilling a pipeline, you use drilling mud and it is supposed to return back out of the hole you’re drilling. And in this case, it was not circulating back out, which means it’s going somewhere. It’s called an ‘inadvertent return’ or a ‘frack out.’You’re not supposed to ignore it and let it go for a month, and you’re not supposed to put diesel fuel in it. It either stays in the ground where it can contaminate groundwater and turn it brown or it spurts out somewhere. [FERC’s] allegation is that this crew was just kind of being inattentive and using a cheat. They were not getting returns, which means it was not coming back [out of the well bore] for a month. We don’t really know where it was going.When someone finally found it, they had a third-party expert come in and estimated that it had been pumping out of the ground, spurting out of the ground in that location for three or four days.
24 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 28-Apr 3 | Marcellus Drilling News - Last week Pennsylvania issued 14 new shale well permits, with EQT Corp. grabbing eight (seven of them on a single pad in Fayette County), and Coterra Energy (formerly Cabot Oil & Gas) receiving three (all on the same pad in Susquehanna County). Ohio issued ten new permits last week, with three going to a relative newcomer, Utica Resource Operating (same pad in Guernsey Count) and three for Encino Energy (same pad in Harrison County). West Virginia got skunked and shows no new shale permits issued last week. Pity.Ascent Resources, Beech Resources, Bradford County, Cabot Oil & Gas, Carroll County, Encino Energy, Energy Companies, EQT Corp, Fayette County, Guernsey County, Harrison County, INR, Jefferson County (OH), Lycoming County, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Seneca Resources,Southwestern Energy, Susquehanna County, Tioga County (PA), Utica Resource Operating,Washington County, Weekly Permits
Sleazy Congressional Democrats Target O&G Stock Buybacks, Dividends | Marcellus Drilling News - For years (more than a decade) we’ve heard the left criticize shale companies as a “Ponzi scheme” that’s not profitable–drilling new wells to make up for declining production in old wells–all the while bilking investors. People like Ian Urbina of the New York Times tried to paint shale companies as fraudsters, going back more than ten years (see Ian Urbina/NYT Continue Journalistic Malpractice Against the Natural Gas Industry – This Time it’s Fracking). The share price of publicly traded stocks for shale companies fell, in some cases losing more than 90% in value. Now that shale drillers–both oil and natural gas–refuse to drill more so they can clear their debt and return to a more healthy status, the left is not happy again! The left isn’t happy when shale finances are bad, and they *really* aren’t happy when shale finances are good. The latest sleazeball tactic by the left (i.e. Congressional Democrats) is to hold sham hearings in the D.C. swamp to accuse shale drillers of hoarding money, using it for stock buybacks and dividend payments to investors. Well duh! That’s what they’re supposed to do!!
Marcellus & Utica Drillers Meet with European Officials re More LNG Exports | Marcellus Drilling News --According to Reuters, at least a dozen U.S. shale gas executives met yesterday in Houston, TX, with European energy officials to discuss expanding U.S. fuel supplies to Europe. Among those in the meeting were “top executives” from Chesapeake Energy, Coterra Energy (formerly Cabot Oil & Gas), and EQT Corp., the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. Individual meetings are planned between the execs and representatives from Latvia, Estonia, and Slovakia. It seems that Europe has finally opened its eyes (and its mind) to the benefits of American natural gas.
Why Pennsylvania natural gas might not be poised to come to Europe's rescue -Europe is clamoring to buy more American natural gas in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As the nation’s second-largest producer of natural gas, Pennsylvania stands to gain, right? Not necessarily. Some oil and gas industry experts say that Pennsylvania, even though it is a major producer in the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations, is not well-positioned to feed gas production into export markets to satisfy demand from Europe. “There has been solid pull for U.S. natural gas exports,” said Dean Foreman, the chief economist of the American Petroleum Institute. “But by and large, producers across Appalachia -- Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia -- do not have a large amount of access to selling their product to international markets.” Foreman says pipeline capacity is constrained between Appalachian gas production areas and the giant Gulf Coast facilities that produce liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export by ships. The result is that gas production is expected to be static or to fall slightly this year in Appalachia, but production is booming in the Haynesville area of Louisiana and East Texas even though gas is more expensive to extract there than in the Marcellus. Its advantage: more pipelines to the Gulf. The East Coast has only one large LNG production plant for export, the Cove Point LNG in Lusby, Md., which was built in 1978 to import gas when U.S. production was in decline. The plant reopened as an export facility in 2016 after Dominion Energy invested $3.8 billion to install cryogenic equipment needed to chill natural gas to minus-260 degrees, at which point it turns into liquid. The plant can liquefy up to 770 million cubic feet of gas a day. Other proposals to build East Coast liquefaction terminals have aroused strong objections from climate advocates, who view LNG as a long-term avenue for expanding greenhouse gas emissions. Gas industry advocates argue that LNG burns cleaner than the carbon-intensive fuels it displaces, like coal and diesel.
Appalachian Natural Gas Output Growth Said Threatened by Long-term 'Uncertainties' - Higher natural gas prices were a positive for natural gas producers in the Appalachian Basin in 2021, but ongoing “uncertainties” threaten the industry’s long-term growth prospects. “These include a number of challenges at the federal level being pushed by the Biden administration and some members of Congress, such as a punitive methane tax, and statewide issues such as Gov. Tom Wolf’s continued efforts to join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and a pair of rulemaking petitions by activist groups seeking to greatly increase the cost of well bonding,” President Daniel J. Weaver of the Pennsylvania Independent Oil and Gas Association (PIOGA) told NGI.Last year Wolf joined fellow governors in New Jersey and New York to support a permanent ban on hydraulic fracturing in the Delaware River Basin.Weaver also said PIOGA is concerned about state and federal rulemakings to control volatile organic compounds and methane emissions, along with “continued opposition to pipeline expansion projects that limit our region’s ability to deliver natural gas to markets where it is needed.” Infrastructure challenges are creating problems across the domestic natural gas market, according to Marcellus Shale Coalition (MSC) President Dave Callahan. In one case, an expansion of Energy Transfer LP’s Mariner East natural gas liquids pipeline system has faced various regulatory, legal, and construction setbacks. Outside of Pennsylvania, the Equitrans Midstream Partners LP-led Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and MVP Southgate gas pipeline projects have encountered challenges as well.“Americans are facing their own reliability and affordability issues because we lack infrastructure to deliver these resources to where they’re needed and when they are needed,” Callahan said. “For example, Appalachian producers and leaseholders received nearly 25% less for their natural gas in 2021” against leading national index prices versus leading national index prices such as the New York Mercantile Exchange. He said the disparity “results in less investment to Pennsylvania and fewer royalty dollars for leaseholders.”He observed that a dearth of pipeline infrastructure into the New York City region and across New England is costing gas consumers in those markets. New York City plans to ban new gas hookups in certain buildings starting in late 2023.“As energy production and consumption evolves, smart policies that recognize the fundamental, basic human need for clean, reliable, affordable energy can divert disruptive price spikes and reliability challenges,” said Callahan.
Analysts forecast rise in oil and gas impact fees after prices rose in 2021 - Analysts expect oil and gas impact fees in Pennsylvania will rebound for 2021 after hitting a low point in 2020. The state’s Independent Fiscal Office expects drillers to pay about $234 million dollars in impact fees for 2021, nearly $90 million more than 2020. If that figure is correct, it will be one of the highest payouts since the fee started a decade ago. That’s mainly due to the increase in natural gas prices. The IFO says the average price of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2021 was $3.84 per million metric British thermal units (MMBtu). Because the price was between $3-$5, the impact fee schedule increased by $10,000 per horizontal well compared to 2020 levels The U.S. Energy Information Administration says gas prices rose from February to October last year, after falling in 2020 because of pandemic-related shutdowns. They’re expected to stay close to $4 per MMBtu this year. The EIA uses the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana to project prices. The impact fee was designed to benefit the communities where drilling happens. Payments are due in April. Under the fee structure, drillers pay for each operating well, not the amount of gas produced. The payment varies based on the price of gas and age of the well. Chair of the Washington County Board of Commissioners Diana Irey Vaughan said counties like hers have come to rely on the impact fee. “We have a low debt service in the county and we haven’t raised taxes in 12 years, so we’re very grateful to have this revenue stream and very grateful to see that it’s starting to return,” Vaughan said, adding the new money could help pay for a proposed public safety communication system in the county. The IFO estimates the effective tax rate of the impact fee for wells in operation to be 1.3% for 2021, the lowest on record. Pennsylvania is the only major gas-producing state without a severance tax, which would charge producers based on the amount of gas they take out of the ground. Gov. Tom Wolf has repeatedly proposed adding one on top of the impact fee, but the requests haven’t gained traction in the Republican-controlled legislature.
New hope to jump-start the clean up of Pennsylvania's abandoned oil and gas wells -Don Cornell stood in a foot and a half of snow last week in Cornplanter State Forest and pointed through the trees at an old pump jack – the classic see-saw structure used to draw oil out of an underground well. “You can see the jack is rusted apart,” said Cornell, an oil and gas inspector for Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection. He noted several metal supports that are succumbing to the ravages of time. A two-inch-wide pipe the jack is resting on has started to sag to one side; the whole structure looks like it could fall over. “Over in the next couple of years, that’s going to break apart,” he said. “Things are going to fall down…and this is going to go up in price a lot to take care of this problem.”This oil well in Cornplanter State Forest in Forest County was drilled in the 1970s, state records show but was abandoned decades ago when the company that owned it went bankrupt. That means it’s now Cornell’s problem. Companies are supposed to plug wells when they stop producing. But historically, many companies have walked away when they dissolve or go bankrupt, and the state has had few tools to stop them. Now, the wells are basically open holes in the ground – and pose a number of problems. They can leak gas into people’s homes that can lead to explosions. They can pollute surrounding groundwater. And they can leak stray oil, brine or methane, a greenhouse gas that is 72 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat over a 20-year period. The EPA estimates the nation’s 2 million abandoned wells are the No. 10 source of methane, after sources like agriculture, oil and gas drilling, and landfills. President Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law includes $4.7 billion dollars for plugging wells – basically, sealing them with cement. Pennsylvania is slated to get $330 million of that money over the next decade.
NY Democrats have done more than their share of harm to our state's energy industry -President Joe Biden’s war on fossil fuel left America dangerously unprepared for crises like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but New York leaders have done more than their part to worsen the problem. Now Gov. Kathy Hochul hopes to deliver still more pain. Start with New York’s ban on fracking, a perfectly safe method for extracting natural gas and oil from shale that accounts for more than half of US oil production and two-thirds of natural-gas output. Brookings Institution researchers estimate that, by 2040, natural gas costs would be 70% higher absent fracking, but that in reality, it will boost gross domestic product 0.9%.New York is one of the few states to have recklessly banned the process — though the Marcellus Shale holds at least 13 trillion cubic feet of gas, and the Utica Shale another motherlode. That’s not only deprived New Yorkers, and Americans generally, of a valuable source of energy; it’s also dealt a blow to the state’s economy, especially the Southern Tier region, where much of the gas sits waiting to be tapped. Meanwhile, across the border, Pennsylvania has enjoyed fracking’s fruits for years: Oil and gas there support more than 500,000 jobs, and the industry contributes $78 billion to the economy, the American Petroleum Institute reports.New York has also nixed natural-gas pipelines, even as the state imports nearly all the gas it consumes. Per the US Energy Information Administration, 60% of New York households heat with natural gas; 40% of electricity comes from gas-fired power plants.More: Then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo forced the closure of the Indian Point nuclear plant (which produced the most climate-friendly electricity known to man). He also pushed through laws that set wholly out-of-touch goals for the state: By 2030, 70% of its juice must come from renewables; by 2040, 100%.It won’t happen: Renewables now account for less than 10 percent of New York’s energy output; expanding that eight-fold in the next eight years, or 11-fold in 18, is utterly impossible. But chasing that vision is driving terrible policy.
D.C. Circuit drama hits FERC, Mountain Valley pipeline - A federal appeals court yesterday sharply scrutinized energy regulators’ handling of the Mountain Valley pipeline, as questions swirl about the fate of the embattled natural gas project. During oral argument, judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit pressed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on its two-year extension of the project’s certificate, asking why the agency had not done more to review the “profoundly changed circumstances” of the pipeline’s environmental impact after construction caused additional sediment to settle in waterways along the project’s route. Both Mountain Valley and FERC blamed abnormally high rainfall in 2018 for the increased sediment.“When the commission says that this terrible environmental problem was the result of something, does it have an obligation before it makes that statement to do a causal analysis?” asked Judge Patricia Millett. The D.C. Circuit case is another hurdle for the pipeline developer, which has faced lengthy project delays and a string of legal challenges to its project. Mountain Valley is designed to carry natural gas 304 miles between West Virginia and Virginia. Millett and Chief Judge Sri Srinivasan asked why FERC had not drafted a supplemental environmental impact statement after both states issued consent orders for stronger erosion protections after Mountain Valley developers violated local water quality standards. “Is there a principle that if other entities find significant changed circumstances and they impose their own ways to respond, does that absolve FERC from responding?” asked Millett, an Obama appointee. Srinivasan, another Obama pick, noted that FERC’s response to the state water quality violations seemed to be that the “system was working” when the states had been the ones to implement stricter requirements to prevent erosion. Environmental groups led by the Sierra Club are challenging FERC’s decision in 2020 to extend its certificate authorizing project construction until October after Mountain Valley developers had to push back the project’s planned in-service date. An attorney for the pipeline assured the D.C. Circuit that Mountain Valley’s developers planned to move forward with the project, which he said was 94 percent finished.In contrast to FERC’s rosy predictions, pipeline construction has resulted in “widespread erosion” that led to some water bodies being buried in mud in violation of state water quality standards, said Benjamin Luckett, an attorney for Appalachian Mountain Advocates, who represented the environmental challengers. ‘
US will require valves on new pipelines to stop disasters — US officials, on Thursday, adopted a rule aimed at reducing deaths and environmental damage from oil and gas pipeline ruptures — a long-delayed response to fatal explosions and massive spills that have occurred over decades in California, Michigan, New Jersey and other states. But safety advocates said the move by the US Transportation Department would not have averted the accidents that prompted the new rule. That’s because it applies only to newly constructed or replaced pipelines — and not to hundreds of thousands of miles of lines that already crisscross the country, many of them decades old and corroding. The rule requires companies to install emergency valves that can quickly shut off the flow of oil, natural gas or other hazardous fuels when pipelines rupture. It came in response to a massive gas explosion in San Bruno that killed eight people in 2010, and to large oil spills into Michigan’s Kalamazoo River and Montana’s Yellowstone River and other spills. The National Transportation Safety Board since the 1990s has recommended the use of automatic or remote controlled valves on large pipelines — whether they are existing or new — to reduce the severity of accidents. Following a 1994 gas pipeline explosion and fire that destroyed eight buildings in Edison, Jersey, the safety board urged the Transportation Department to expedite requirements for shut-off valves in cities and natural areas. But pipeline companies for years resisted new valve requirements because of the expense of installing them and concerns they could close accidentally and shut off fuel supplies. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said the more stringent regulations for the industry were needed because too many people have been harmed by pipeline failures. He said installation of the valves would also protect against large releases of methane, a highly potent greenhouse gas blamed for helping drive climate change.
EIA Says U.S. Needs More Natural Gas Pipes to Boost Output, Stabilize Prices - If U.S. natural gas infrastructure is not expanded to meet growing demand, prices would escalate and more electricity generation is likely from renewables, coal and nuclear sources over the next three decades, according to federal researchers. In the U.S. Energy Information (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) issued in March, the reference case – the baseline scenario – forecast strong renewables growth to 2050. However, researchers said natural gas and petroleum were expected to supply most domestic demand over the next three decades. However, the baseline scenario is forecasting more natural gas infrastructure to be built in the coming years. If the infrastructure is not built out, however, there would be few options for generators except for using renewables, coal and nuclear, according to EIA. “We project that restricting interstate U.S. natural gas pipeline capacity would only slightly lower energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States relative to the Reference case,” EIA researchers led by Stephen York said. “Total CO2 from all fuel sources in 2050 are 4% lower in the No Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Builds case than in the Reference case. The relatively small effect on CO2 emissions, despite the decline in natural gas consumption and growth in electric power generation from renewable sources, is due to our forecast of increased coal-fired power generation, which would be more carbon intensive than the natural gas-fired generation it displaces.” The updated note came on the heels of a decision by FERC to increase scrutiny on gas pipeline and liquefied natural gas proposals to ensure they pass muster in the courts.The policies are in flux, following stiff opposition. However, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Richard Glick has noted that even after green lighting gas projects, they remain tied up in litigation because the Commission failed to include greenhouse gas emissions data, among other things.
New study: What if there weren't any long distance natural gas pipelines built in U.S.? -- What if there were no more long distance natural gas pipelines built in the United States?What might sound like an unlikely scenario is the subject of a new study by the Department of Energy, which studied what would happen to natural gas demand if no more interstate pipelines were built. In such a scenario, they predict gas demand would be 4 percent less than under normal conditions and prices would be 11 percent higher."Restricting U.S. interstate pipeline builds in our projection results in 7.4 billion cubic feet per day less interregional capacity in 2050," the report reads. "For example, (that restriction) limits the amount of natural gas that can flow from the Appalachia production region to demand areas such as the Midwest."The study comes as the Biden administration has expressed skepticism about the future of natural gas in the United States, promoting policies to get the United States off electricity generated from fossil fuels as quickly as possible in favor of wind and solar energy.In February the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ordered pipeline developers to provide detail on the greenhouse gas emissions their projects will generate - though later adjusted the order as a draft policy and said it would not apply to projects already under review at FERC.Litigation from environmental groups has already made new pipeline construction a hard sell, with a number of companies canceling projects over the past year, citing rising legal costs.Complicating Biden's clean energy plans are rising energy prices driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and booming economic activity as Covid-19 seemingly wanes. Last month Biden committed to expanding U.S. LNG exports to Europe, to aid allies there.But the administration remains committed to getting the nation on the path to net zero emissions by mid century, in lines with other global powers.Hardest hit by an end to interstate pipeline construction would be the electricity sector. The Energy Department forecasts that 11 percent less gas-fired power plants than under normal conditions. That would help renewables to become the largest source of generation, with 4 percent more wind and solar than would be built otherwise. Also, coal generation would be 9 percent higher and nuclear generation 5 percent higher, according to the Energy department.
Fed report: Stopping natural gas pipelines yields tiny carbon cut --U.S. greenhouse gases from the energy sector would drop by less than 1% by 2050 if the nation stops building interstate gas pipelines, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. While carbon emissions from natural gas would decrease 4.4%, total emissions would go down by only 0.7% as energy producers burned more coal to offset reduced natural gas supplies, according to a new EIA analysis. “The relatively small effect on CO2 emissions ... is due to our forecast of increased coal-fired power generation, which would be more carbon intensive than the natural gas-fired generation it displaces,” the EIA posted on its website Monday. The EIA, a federal agency, reported in March that based on current laws, and economic and demographic trends U.S. natural gas production will grow by almost 24% by 2050. The agency, however, noted that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission announced in March that it will consider climate change in approving future interstate pipelines. Interstate natural gas pipeline capacity grew considerably between 1990 and 2020, but several large lines have been canceled in recent years following legal and public opposition, according to the EIA. If the U.S. adopts a permanent moratorium on new pipelines beginning in 2024, natural gas spot prices will be 11% higher in 2050 than the baseline forecast, the EIA estimated. Natural gas is a key ingredient in manufacturing nitrogen fertilizer. Fertilizer prices spiked in late 2021 alongside rising natural gas prices, according to the USDA Economic Research Service. The cost of ammonia more than doubled between 2000 and 2006 as the price of natural gas trended upward, according to the USDA. Under a moratorium, natural gas production would decline 4.6% by 2050, and consumption would fall 4.3% as more electricity was generated by renewable resources, nuclear plants and coal, the EIA projected. Greenhouse gases from energy-related fuel sources would fall by 34 million metric tons, the EIA estimated. The reduction would equal about one-third of Washington’s carbon output. Under current laws and trends, natural gas production in the U.S. will exceed domestic demand by 25% by 2050, the EIA projects. Much of the excess production probably would be exported as liquified natural gas, the agency reported.
U.S. Gas Production Set To Fall On Lack Of Pipelines -U.S. natural gas production will decline by 5 percent by 2050, and consumption will shed 4 percent if no new interstate pipelines are built, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Annual Energy Outlook. This, in turn, will lead to higher gas prices, the authority also said, and this will, in turn, lead to higher electricity prices.“The higher natural gas prices that result from capacity constraints primarily affect natural gas consumption in the U.S. electric power sector, which is more price-sensitive than the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors,” the EIAexplained.The share of natural gas in power generation is set to decline in the scenario of no new interstate natural gas pipelines but not by much. According to the EIA, in that scenario, the share of gas in 2050 will constitute 31 percent of the total, compared with 34 percent under the agency’s reference scenario.Yet, in absolute terms, the lack of new interstate gas pipelines will reduce gas-fired power generation by 11 percent in 2050 compared to the reference scenario.At the same time, any bans on new interstate pipelines—a prerogative of the federal government—will not lead to any significant carbon dioxide emission declines.“We project that restricting interstate U.S. natural gas pipeline capacity would only slightly lower energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States relative to the Reference case,” the EIA wrote. “Total CO2 from all fuel sources in 2050 are 4% lower in the No Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Builds case than in the Reference case.”
U.S. Natural Gas Will Be The First Energy Crisis Signal - Oil markets got hit by a slew of bearish events last week: Shanghai COVID lockdown and a record-setting SPR release of ~180 million bbls from the US. But the oil market's cousin, natural gas, won't be so easily tamed this year as there is no strategic petroleum reserve. Natural gas is an interesting commodity because unlike oil, where countries hold an ample amount of reserve, natural gas is highly susceptible to boom and bust periods. Because it's one of the few commodities that exhibit pure supply and demand dynamics at play in real time, the only way for supply and demand to change rapidly is for the market to force it (e.g. price increase or decrease). In this case, natural gas is going to be the first energy crisis signal. As we wrote last week in our NGF, natural gas prices by this summer are in for a rude awakening. Global natural gas storages are low with Europe unlikely to get the adequate amount of gas it needs for this upcoming winter. If the summer proves to be warmer than normal, then demand for LNG cargoes will dramatically increase. US LNG exports are largely fixed, but a small portion of LNG exports are influenced by the marginal cargo. As a result, given the low levels of storage in the US and the marginal pricing from global LNG prices, US gas prices are likely to go even higher than we expect. For US refineries, this is going to be somewhat of a headache as this increases the cost of operation. It's a good thing then that refining margins are at record highs. Nonetheless, we see a scenario where US gas prices go to $8 or even $10/MMBtu. This is because the market is going to be forward looking and with EOS expected at just ~3.3 Tcf, the market is going to wonder how we are going to fill storage during winter. Now again, a large part of the price trajectory is going to be dependent on where Lower 48 gas production is headed. We saw a small increase in production over the weekend back to ~95 Bcf/d, but this is still well below the 97-98 Bcf/d needed to balance this market. We think given both the labor and supply shortages we are hearing about in the US shale patch, the supply increases this year will likely be disappointing. If so, natural gas will be the first energy crisis signal.
UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas holds near 9-wk high on forecasts for more demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a nine-week high on Monday as forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks offset early expectations for more demand during that time. Traders noted U.S. gas prices failed to hold gains from earlier in the day when the market climbed with oil and other energy futures. Front-month gas futures fell 0.8 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $5.712 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its highest since Jan. 27 for a third day in a row. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose from 93.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March to 94.8 bcfd so far in April as more wells returned to service after freezing over the winter. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 98.5 bcfd this week to 93.3 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slipped from a record 12.9 bcfd in March to 12.8 bcfd so far in April. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. The U.S. gas market remains mostly shielded from higher global prices because the United States, as the world's top gas producer, has all the fuel it needs for domestic use and capacity constraints limit its ability to export more LNG no matter how high global prices rise. European gas slipped about 4% on Monday to around $35 per mmBtu on oversupply concerns. So far this year, the U.S. gas market has followed European prices less than half the time. Since the United States will not be able to produce more LNG soon, the country has worked with allies to divert more LNG exports to Europe to help European Union (EU) countries and others break their dependence on Russian gas. Russia, the world's second biggest gas producer, provided about 30%-40% of Europe's gas in 2021, totaling about 18.3 bcfd. The European Union wants to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of 2022 and refill stockpiles to 90% of capacity by Nov. 1. Gas stockpiles in Western Europe (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) were about 33% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, according to Refinitiv. That is about 22% of full capacity and compares with inventories about 15% below the five-year normal in the United States.
U.S. natural gas up 6% on output decline, cooler forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a nine-week peak on Tuesday on a preliminary drop in U.S. output, cooler forecasts and the possibility that additional sanctions on Russian gas supplies will keep U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs for months to come. U.S. gas futures have climbed in recent months - average prices in March hit their highest levels in eight years - while global gas prices and demand for LNG soared as several countries seek to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special military operation" to disarm its neighbor. Front-month gas futures rose 32.0 cents, or 5.6%, to settle at $6.032 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Jan. 27. Record U.S. LNG demand has kept the front-month in technically overbought territory with a relative strength index (RSI) over 70 for a fifth day in a row for the first time since September 2021, and caused the 12-month futures strip to rise to its highest since February 2010 for a third day in a row. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 94.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 1.4 bcfd to 93.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Texas, according to preliminary Refinitiv data. If that drop is correct - preliminary data is often revised - it would be the biggest one-day decline since extreme cold in early February froze wells. Cold was definitely not the problem on Tuesday. AccuWeather forecast high temperatures in the West Texas Permian shale basin will reach 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 Celsius), about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 97.4 bcfd this week to 92.7 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has slipped from a record 12.9 bcfd in March to 12.5 bcfd so far in April due to declines at Cheniere Energy Inc's Corpus Christi facility and Freeport LNG's facility in Texas. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. Despite the threat of more sanctions on Russia, European gas eased about 2% on Tuesday to around $34 per mmBtu on oversupply concerns.
Natural Gas Futures Rally Ahead of Storage Report as American Model Trends Colder - Bolstered by increased demand expectations from one of the major weather models overnight, natural gas futures were trading higher early Thursday as the market awaited the latest government storage report. The May Nymex contract was up 11.5 cents to $6.144/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. Expectations for this morning’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report, scheduled for 10:30 a.m. ET, point to a draw in the upper 20s Bcf for the week ended April 1. A Bloomberg survey of seven analysts showed withdrawal estimates from 17 Bcf to 36 Bcf, with a median draw of 27 Bcf. Reuters polled 15 analysts, whose estimates ranged from withdrawals of 3 Bcf to 44 Bcf, with a median decline of 26 Bcf. A tighter range of projections in a Wall Street Journal poll averaged at a pull of 28 Bcf. A print in line with expectations would be bullish compared to historical norms. Last year, 19 Bcf was injected into storage during the similar week, while the five-year average is a build of 8 Bcf. EBW Analytics Group senior analyst Eli Rubin said predictions ahead of the latest EIA print reflect a “narrow consensus” for a withdrawal of around 26-28 Bcf, potentially increasing the risk of a surprise print from the agency. “The counter-seasonal transition from last report’s injection to today’s draw — added to a wide disparity between pipeline flow and supply/demand models — suggests a surprise is possible in either direction,” Rubin said. Meanwhile, looking at overnight changes in the weather data, the American Global Forecast System (GFS) model advertised a “hefty” 22 heating degree day (HDD) increase, reflecting colder trends over the northern United States, according to NatGasWeather. The European model, by contrast, did not mirror the demand gains seen in its American counterpart, the firm said. “With the GFS adding a decent amount of demand, it’s now colder by nearly 15 HDD compared to the European model, a large enough difference that today’s early morning and midday data will be important to see if the GFS is able to hold the gained demand,” NatGasWeather said. In terms of technicals, bears would need to drop prices below resistance at $5.935 to signal a shift in momentum, according to ICAP Technical Analysis.
US natural gas storage reverses flow as final draw drops stocks below 1.4 Tcf - US natural gas storage flipped back to withdrawal mode in the week ended April 1, widening the deficit and delaying the start to injection season as Henry Hub futures held firmly at over $6/MMBtu. Lingering winter weather in late March prompted a surprisingly large drawdown of 33 Bcf in the week ended April 1, according to the US Energy Information Administration's April 7 report. The withdrawal was larger than the 27 Bcf pull expected from this week's survey of analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The drawdown also stood in stark contrast to the five-year historical record which has averaged an 8 Bcf injection for the week ended April 1. Working gas inventories pulled back 1.382 Tcf during the week, setting a new season-ending low for US storage this year, EIA data showed. As of April 1, inventories stood 399 Bcf, or more than 22%, below the year-ago level of 1.781 Tcf and 285 Bcf, or about 17%, behind the five-year average level at 1.667 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub May contract gained as much as 40 cents in April 7 trading before easing back from its session high to settle at $6.36/MMBtu, S&P Global data showed. The late season drawdown from gas storage underscores the impact of chilly weather this spring which has propped up heating demand and further tightened the US supply balance, raising concern in the gas futures and forwards markets. Over the next 14 days, abnormally cool temperatures are expected to dominate across the US West and the Midcontinent, according to a pair of short-term forecasts published by the US National Weather Service April 7. Cooler temperatures could extend the heating through mid-April – potentially leaving intact, or further expanding, the US storage deficit. For the week currently in progress, S&P Global analysts are now expecting a 28 Bcf injection, followed by another paltry 35 Bcf injection in the week ending April 14. Assuming those predictions are accurate, the US storage deficit would widen by 3 Bcf to an estimated 288 Bcf below average by mid-April As US inventories languish, production is now increasingly central to the US supply-demand story. Over the past month, US gas production has stumbled its way into the second quarter averaging just 93.7 Bcf/d, S&P Global Commodity Insights data shows. After trending at a record-high 95.7 Bcf/d in December, domestic output faced a setback this winter exacerbated by a series of freeze-offs across Texas and the US Midcontinent. While rig numbers, new well drilling and well completions have continued to grow in the major US shale basins this year, production has yet to regain earlier momentum seen in fourth-quarter 2021.
U.S. natgas futures jump to 2008 closing high on soaring LNG exports -(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 6% on Thursday to their highest close since December 2008 on record global demand for American liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Traders also noted prices gained on a bigger than expected storage draw, a preliminary decline in output and forecasts for more demand in the United States over the next two weeks then previously expected. "All this talk of sending U.S. LNG to supply Europe and get them off Russian gas is causing U.S. gas to be repriced because of what lies ahead for LNG exports," Even though the United States is already exporting all the LNG it can produce, "the reality is U.S. gas is getting a lot of investor interest because it is a commodity that can be stored. So, buy now and avoid the rush." U.S. front-month gas futures rose 33.0 cents, or 5.5%, to settle at $6.359 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 2008. Those gas futures have already soared about 71% this year with much higher prices in Europe keeping demand for U.S. LNG near record highs as several countries try to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, an action the Kremlin calls a "special military operation." Oddly enough, European gas and global crude futures dipped on Thursday. European gas slid about 3% to around $33 per mmBtu on mild weather and ample LNG imports. Record U.S. LNG demand also boosted the 12-month gas futures strip to its highest since January 2009 and helped keep the U.S. front-month in technically overbought territory with a relative strength index (RSI) over 70 for a seventh day in a row. Despite recent gains, the U.S. gas market remains mostly shielded from much higher global prices because the United States, as the world's top gas producer, has all the fuel it needs for domestic use and capacity constraints limit its ability to export more LNG no matter how high global prices rise. Data provider Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid from a record 12.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March to 12.4 bcfd so far in April due to declines at the Corpus Christi and Freeport facilities in Texas. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. Gas stockpiles in Western Europe (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) were about 34% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, according to Refinitiv. That is about 22% of full capacity and compares with inventories about 17% below the five-year normal in the United States.
Opposition grows against Commonwealth LNG facility in Cameron Parish - Amid a flurry of planned liquefied natural gas export facilities in southwest Louisiana, environmentalists and residents are pushing back against one LNG project in Cameron Parish, where the channel meets the Gulf of Mexico. The terminal will ship about 8.4 million metric tons of LNG annually. Construction is slated to begin in 2023 with commercial operations starting in 2026. Residents and environmentalists packed a March 17 public hearing in Cameron Parish about the air permit, which Commonwealth applied for in April 2021. Critics of the project say it will have far-reaching impacts on the area’s ecosystem and will spew pollutants well above the recommended federal levels for maintaining air quality.Commonwealth LNG’s initial estimate for carbon dioxide emissions is more than 3.5 million tons annually, according to its permit application with the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality. The federal threshold for triggering more stringent reviews — known as a prevention of significant deterioration, or PSD, review — is 75,000 tons annually.As a result, Commonwealth LNG will have to use “best available control technology” to limit emissions. The permit application says Commonwealth LNG will use low carbon fuels, carbon capture and “thermally efficient equipment” to manage the carbon dioxide emissions.
Sempra and partners sign agreement for Cameron LNG phase 2 - Phase 2 of the LNG export project in the US involves the addition of a fourth train with a production capacity of up to 6.75Mtpa as well as ramping up of the production capacity of the three operating LNG trains via debottlenecking activities. Sempra Infrastructure has entered into a heads of agreement (HOA) with affiliates of TotalEnergies, Mitsui & Co., and Japan LNG Investment for developing the Cameron LNG phase 2 export project in Louisiana. A commercial framework has been provided by the preliminary non-binding arrangement for expanding the Cameron LNG facility with a fourth liquefied natural gas (LNG) train. The partners will also aim to ramp up the production capacity of the three operating LNG trains by taking up debottlenecking activities. Located in Hackberry and built with an investment of $10bn, the Cameron LNG export facility achieved full commercial operations in August 2020. Currently, the three liquefaction trains have an estimated export capacity of around 12 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) or nearly 1.7 billion cubic feet per day of LNG. The fourth train under the proposed phase 2 project will have a maximum production capacity of 6.75Mtpa. The Cameron LNG phase 2 export project is likely to incorporate some design enhancements to make it a more cost-effective and efficient facility, while bringing down the overall emissions of greenhouse gases. Under the HOA, a stake of 50.2% is considered to be allocated to Sempra Infrastructure in the projected fourth train production capacity. The Sempra subsidiary could also get 25% of the projected debottlenecking capacity under tolling agreements, with the remaining capacity to be equally allocated to the existing customers of Cameron LNG phase 1. Sempra Infrastructure said that before taking a final investment decision on phase 2, it intends to sell the LNG corresponding to its capacity under long-term sale and purchase agreements.
LNG services provider Excelerate Energy sets terms for $360 million IPO - Excelerate Energy, which operates LNG storage and regasification infrastructure in emerging markets, announced terms for its IPO on Monday. The Woodlands, TX-based company plans to raise $360 million by offering 16 million shares at a price range of $21 to $24. At the midpoint of the proposed range, Excelerate Energy would command a fully diluted market value of $2.4 billion. The company plans to issue a quarterly dividend. Excelerate Energy is expected to be the first $100+ million US IPO in over two months. Excelerate is focused on providing flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) solutions to emerging markets in diverse environments across the globe. The company has regional offices in eight countries and operations in the US, Brazil, Argentina, Israel, United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and Bangladesh. It is the largest provider of regasified LNG in Argentina and Bangladesh and one of the largest providers of regasified LNG in Brazil and Pakistan, and it operates the largest floating storage and regasification unit in Brazil. Excelerate Energy was founded in 2003 and booked $889 million in revenue for the 12 months ended December 31, 2021. It plans to list on the NYSE under the symbol EE. Barclays, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo are the joint bookrunners on the deal. It is expected to price during the week of April 11, 2022.
NFE seeks permits to build Fast LNG export facility offshore Louisiana, US --New Fortress Energy is seeking necessary permits and regulatory approvals to build and operate a new offshore LNG liquefaction terminal off the coast of Louisiana, US. The company has simultaneously filed applications with the US Maritime Administration, the US Coast Guard and US Department of Energy, for the project. The new LNG terminal will be built in the US federal waters, nearly 16 miles (26km) off the southeast coast of Grand Isle, Louisiana, and will leverage existing infrastructure. It will have an exporting capacity of around 145 billion cubic feet (bcm) of natural gas per annum, equivalent to around 2.8 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of LNG. NFE chairman and CEO Wes Edens said: “This announcement demonstrates the flexibility, efficiency and significance of our innovative Fast LNG solution to bring more affordable, reliable and cleaner fuels to customers around the world. an play a significant role in supporting our nation’s commitment to our European allies and their energy security as well as support our efforts to reduce emissions and energy poverty around the world.” NFE said that it has completed procurement of all the long-lead materials for the facility and the modular assembly of equipment is underway. Its Fast LNG liquefaction design combines the latest advancements in modular, midsize liquefaction technology with jack up rigs or similar offshore infrastructure.
Manchin, Kelly urge Biden to open new Gulf oil leasing - - Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Mark Kelly of Arizona are urging the Biden administration to develop a new five-year oil and gas leasing plan in the Gulf of Mexico.In a letter yesterday to President Joe Biden, the lawmakers argued that a new schedule for the sale of federal oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf would help ease high energy prices.“Increasing domestic oil production to meet demand is a critical step to lowering gas prices and reducing our reliance on foreign sources,” Manchin and Kelly wrote.Tapping the Gulf of Mexico should “enable the United States to become more energy independent to meet emerging geopolitical threats,” the letter states.The current five-year plan, inked under President Barack Obama, expires in June, but the Biden administration has yet to release details on what comes next.A Trump administration plan to allow greater oil and gas development in untapped waters in the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific oceans fell apart after sparking significant resistance from coastal states and a legal battle over potential drilling in waters protected by an Obama-era moratorium. A revised five-year proposal was never released (Energywire, Jan. 5, 2018).The Biden administration froze new oil and gas leasing last year during a review of the federal oil and gas program. It was forced to restart leasing by a federal judge, but its first and only oil auction — in the Gulf of Mexico in November — was overturned by a different judge for not doing a strong enough assessment of climate impacts.The administration has not appealed that ruling.Manchin and Kelly’s letter echoes recent critiques from GOP lawmakers that the Biden administration is slow walking the national leasing program, while also pushing the oil and gas industry to drill more to combat high prices (E&E Daily, April 1).New leasing, or leasing plans, would not have an immediate impact on the global oil supply or the current price hike, experts agree. But industry has warned that a lapse in the offshore oil and gas plan may be unprecedented and have long-term consequences for production and federal revenue (E&E News PM, March 29).
U.S. East Coast jet fuel costs soar on shortage fears(Reuters) -Jet fuel prices are soaring on the U.S. East Coast, home to some of the world's busiest airports, with buyers anticipating a worsening shortage as supply dwindles amid sanctions on Russian energy exports. Following Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, the United States and allies slapped heavy sanctions on Russia, leading to a tightening in worldwide energy markets. Russia is the world's largest exporter of crude and petroleum products, and the supply crunch is filtering through to global markets. The East Coast largely relies on shipments on the Texas-to-New Jersey Colonial Pipeline for refined products, as well as imports from Europe. However, Europe is dealing with its own supply strains, so distillate exports to the U.S. East Coast - also known as PADD 1 - are down nearly 60% on a year-on-year basis, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. East Coast jet fuel costs have reached record highs in recent days, with spot prices in New York Harbor exceeding $7.30 per gallon on Monday, more than double the seasonal average, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. "It is ridiculous what's going on in PADD I with jet, and it's not sustainable," said Patrick DeHaan, lead petroleum analyst at GasBuddy. Refiners spent most of 2020 blending excess jet fuel into their diesel pool or refining it further into gasoline as the coronavirus pandemic severely hit air travel. Demand for jet fuel is now about 5% below 2019 levels, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But U.S. distillate inventories, which include heating oil and jet fuel, are currently about 20% below the average for the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic period, compared with deficits of 11% in crude and 1% in gasoline.
Oil cleanup continues near Edwardsville =— Cleanup workers Friday were removing crude oil from a rain soaked area on Old Alton-Edwardsville Road just south of Illinois 143 in Edwardsville. Rains this week apparently helped to spread some of the 165,000 gallons of crude oil that leaked from a pipeline nearby Marathon Pipe Line LLC has repaired the leak, which was discovered on March 11, but some cleanup of of the area and the Cahokia Diversion Canal are still continuing.
Lawmakers press oil CEOs on high gas prices -Democrats on a subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee grilled oil executives Wednesday over the disparities between oil and gas prices, while the committee’s Republican members framed high prices as a consequence of Biden administration energy policies. Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chair Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) confronted the witnesses, who included executives from BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Devon Energy and Shell and Pioneer Natural Resources, directly asking them “Why is there a disconnect between the falling price of crude oil and the fact that the cost of gas is staying the same?” In response, BP Chairman and President David Lawler cited the complicating factors along the supply chain that he said may delay any drop in oil prices being reflected in gas prices. Democrats on the panel repeatedly emphasized the record profits the oil industry reported in 2021. Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.) asked each witness for their profits in the previous year as well as whether they would commit to “doing whatever it takes, including increase production and reducing dividends and buybacks, to help American consumers.” While the witnesses generally committed to increasing production, they were noncommittal or outright declined to say they would reduce buybacks. Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) noted that domestic U.S. oil production has increased since President Biden took office by about 2 billion barrels a day, while Rep. Ann Kuster (D-N.H.) lambasted the executives for referring back to the financial hardships of 2020. “One bad year does not excuse the practice of ripping off consumers,” she said. The witnesses largely defended their business practices, denying under oath that they had artificially increased prices to profit from the Ukraine conflict when questioned by Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.), the ranking member of the oversight and investigations subcommittee. Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield said the company’s production was constrained because “we can’t get people back” to work on oil extraction in the Permian Basin. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), the Energy and Commerce ranking member, dismissed the hearing as “purely political.” She said gas prices were on the rise before the invasion of Ukraine and the spike was “not the result … of companies suddenly deciding to make money in 2022.” Although a confluence of factors contribute to gas prices, congressional Democrats have targeted the oil industry as the cause ahead of a fraught midterm election season.
Supply Chain Woes, Inflation Crimp U.S. Producers’ Growth Potential --Investor concerns about returns are not the only thing keeping a cap on U.S. oil and gas production growth.Producers are struggling with inflation, supply chain lags, and labor shortages – all things that make it difficult to ramp up quickly and cost-effectively.There’s much confusion out there — in the media, political circles, and the general public — about how U.S. oil and gas producers plan their operations for the months ahead and the degree to which they could ratchet up their production to help alleviate the current global supply shortfall and help bring down high prices.It’s not as immediate or straightforward as some might imagine. There are many reasons why producers are either reluctant or unable to increase their oil and gas production quickly. Capital budgets are up in 2022 by an average of 23% over 2021. That increase seems substantial, but analysts estimate that about two-thirds (15%) results from oilfield service inflation.That means the “real” increase in CAPEX – the dollars going toward actual production growth – is closer to 8%. And this increase is coming off a shallow base in 2021 when producers were still hesitant about investments due to the pandemic’s effects on energy demand. Most opted for “maintenance level” CAPEX levels, primarily designed to keep production flat. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent super-spike in oil and gas prices, have raised energy security alarms in Washington and Brussels. TheBiden administration has called on U.S. producers to increase output to help alleviate the supply crunch and enhance energy security in Europe, which is finally getting serious about cutting its dependence on Russian oil and gas.But publicly-listed U.S. producers have largely balked. They have finally won over investors with business models focused on cash returns – big dividends and share buybacks – rather than aggressive production growth. Investors got burnt badly by the growth model in past years when shale producers destroyed billions in capital, and shareholders don’t want a return to the “bad old days.”
Scarce steel a reason for flat U.S. output, oil drillers say— Add steel shortages to the growing list of reasons U.S. shale producers aren’t raising output as fast as needed amid a global energy crisis. To drill more wells, they need steel tubes to line the inside of the holes and get the crude out. Those pipes have become more expensive and scarce. Oil and gas producers also have to boost wages to find and retain workers. They say those higher expenses, along with Biden administration’s tough environmental policy and investors’ pressure to keep costs under control, make them reluctant to ramp up production. U.S. price for the pipes, known as oil-country tubular goods, or OCTG, hit $2,400 per ton this month, up 100% from a year ago, according to data from KeyBanc Capital Markets. The increase is driven by demand and concern that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will sink pipe and tube imports from the region. Russia and Ukraine combined provide about 15% of all of the imported metal to the U.S., according to the U.S. International Trade Administration. Russia also supplies a key ingredient for welded goods, known as coupling stock. “I cannot think of a time prior to this that I’ve seen the market this tight,” said Susan Murphy, publisher of the OCTG Situation Report, which has followed the sector for 36 years. “Everybody is really trying, at least in the tubular goods industry, to manage practically an unmanageable situation.” Oil businesses make drilling plans based on economic forecasts for at least a year out, when OPEC+ may have boosted output and prices may have long since peaked. Shareholders don’t want companies investing capital in robust drilling programs delivering new production in 18 months, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. Chief Executive Officer Scott Sheffield said. “The largest cost increase over the past 12 months for the oil and gas industry is from tubular steel,” one energy executive told the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in the survey released in March. “Steel availability and pricing are also delaying quick activity ramp-up among several operators. This is impairing the ability to bring production online faster.” A Standard and Poor’s index of steel companies is up more than 30% since Russia invaded Ukraine. U.S. Steel Corp. and Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. are among the top performers in the index, up 60% and 50% this year, respectively. Oil consuming nations globally, on the other hand, would like the U.S. to produce more oil, to make up for the sanctioned Russian crude. President Joe Biden has urged U.S. oil companies to pump more as the war in Ukraine led to skyrocketing oil and gasoline prices.
More drilling permits needed to ease gas prices, oil companies tell Congress — Executives at some of the world’s biggest oil companies will tell a U.S. congressional hearing on high gasoline prices that they need the government’s help in securing more drilling permits to help lower consumers’ costs. Darren Woods, chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corp., and Gretchen Watkins, president of Shell PLC’s U.S. division, said in prepared testimony that their companies don’t own gas stations and therefore don’t set fuel prices. The oil giants said they need the government’s help to produce more crude and meet rising demand, thereby leading to lower gasoline prices. “Government plays a key role in this,” Woods said in written testimony. Effective federal permitting for oil companies to lease acreage, drill wells and build pipelines “will help spur further investment in U.S. oil and gas production.” The hearing, being held by a sub panel of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, comes as congressional Democrats seek to highlight record-breaking profits by oil companies as gasoline over $4 a gallon sets off political alarm bells ahead of the midterm elections. In addition to Exxon and Shell, top executives from BP America Inc., Chevron Corp., Devon Energy Corp. and Pioneer Natural Resources Co. will testify remotely. “The Interior Department should end its pause on federal oil and gas leasing,” Watkins said in prepared testimony. “Additionally, accelerating the permitting of otherwise ready oil and gas projects would bring new supplies of oil and gas online within weeks or months.” Exxon, Chevron, BP and Shell spent $44 billion on stock buybacks and dividends last year and have promised $32 billion to investors this year, according to a letter House Democrats sent Monday to the executives of those companies that asked them to suspend stock buybacks and dividends for the duration of the war in Ukraine. Representative Diana DeGette, a Colorado Democrat who chairs the House Energy and Commerce Oversight and Investigations subcommittee, noted that some the nation’s largest oil companies are reporting record high profits. Testimony from each of the participating executives generally reiterated previous talking points over the past month as gasoline prices have soared, including the need for streamlined regulations, their own investors’ demands for financial austerity and the balance between boosting oil supplies while transitioning to low-carbon energy. They also touched on greater energy security in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Biggest U.S. oil explorers face investor votes on emission cuts — Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. investors will vote on shareholder demands to curb pollution amid growing pressure on the oil industry to reduce emissions. Exxon holders will consider a proposal from Dutch environmental group that calls on the oil giant to reduce emissions and sales of oil and natural gas in accordance with the Paris Agreement. A separate measure about low-carbon business planning fielded Arjuna Capital also will be on the ballot for the May 26 meeting. Exxon’s board is advising investors to reject all seven shareholder proposals, according to a proxy statement published Thursday. Meanwhile, Chevron shareholders will vote on whether the company should adopt greenhouse- gas reduction targets, study the impact of going net-zero by 2050, and conduct a racial-equity audit, according to a filing. Chevron’s directors are urging investors to reject the proposals when they vote on May 25. Oil and natural gas explores have been under fire for years for not doing more to limit climate-damaging emissions, and activist investors recently have been making significant inroads. At the same time, politicians and consumer advocates have been critical of the industry as record energy prices aggravate rampant inflation. The chief executives of Exxon and Chevron were among a group of oil bosses pilloried by Democratic lawmakers in Washington on Wednesday during a hearing on gasoline prices and oil supplies. For Exxon, the latest shareholder proposals come less than a year after activist investor Engine No. 1 orchestrated the takeover of a portion of the company’s board. In the wake of that boardroom shakeup, Exxon made significant changes to its climate strategy, including adoption of an “ambition” to eliminate emissions from its own operations -- though not of its customers -- by 2050, and ramping up spending on lower-emission investments.
Private Oil Company Values Are Readying For Take Off: While Publics Remain On Runway - As the term “energy security” comes back into the public lexicon, the values of U.S. oil companies are rising. This comes at the delight of some and chagrin of others. Regardless, it represents a foreshadowing of a potential longer-term cycle; whereby U.S. oil production being able to meet energy demands will be increasingly important. Many believe the U.S. is now the world’s “swing” producer (although John Hess disagrees), and it is not due to government action (or inaction). Biden’s third SPR release in the last six months is largely symbolic and more of a political gesture than a meaningful macro-economic needle mover. Demand and supply were drifting apart before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and this geopolitical dynamic has only widened that gap. The market participants best positioned to seize upon this unexpected gap are private U.S. operators. The current price expectations of oil make a lot of reserves economically attractive. The rate of return on capital deployed for drilling is going to (if not already) outstrip the demand for other capital deployment options such as dividends or debt repayment. However, most U.S. public companies are not shifting their strategies. As I have written before, shareholders have demanded returns from oil companies for years now in forms other than production growth. Oil company valuation in its fundamental form is a function of the present value of future cash flows. Therefore, if capital available today is best served in drilling more wells tomorrow, then production growth is the most efficient path to a higher value. At historical prices from a year ago, the decision to return more capital to shareholders (as opposed to deploying it in capex) made sense. It doesn’t now. However, public companies have yet to change the courses they’ve been setting for the past several years. That’s partly why the public sector (using XOP as a proxy) only rose 62% in the past year while prices nearly doubled.Demand is strong with the anticipated depletion of Russian oil on world markets. U.S. capital budgets would have to quadruple by the end of 2024 for shale to replace Russian oil exports to continental Europe according to Wells Fargo. In addition, break even prices in most basins for new wells are still around where they were a year ago according to the Dallas Fed Survey. That cost is going up and will continue to, but there is still lots of room for profitability at over $100 per barrel. Also, as I have mentioned before as well, DUC wellscontinue to shrink. In summary, there are a lot of signals to public companies to “drill baby drill”, yet they aren’t.
Texas Natural Gas, Oil Drilling Permitting Jumps 38% in February -The Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) reported that it issued 38% more original drilling permits year/year across the Lone Star State in February. The natural gas and oil industry regulator granted 836 drilling permits in February, compared to 606 during the same month last year.Texas, particularly the Permian Basin, has been leading “the U.S. onshore in completion activity,” Primary Vision’s Mark Rossano, partner/lead analyst, told NGI. “The Permian is operating at levels we saw in 2018/2019 given the pricing and proximity to the coast, but we are currently running at or near full utilization rates in the area.”The most recent Baker Hughes Co. (BKR) rig count for the week ending April 1 showed a 44% year/year increase in Permian drilling units.Of the 836 original drilling permits awarded in February, 700 were permits to drill new oil or gas wells, eight were to re-enter plugged wellbores and 119 were re-completions of existing wellbores, according to RRC. Based on well type, 181 of the original drilling permits were for oil, 81 were gas, 518 were oil or gas, 46 were injection and 10 were other permits. The RRC said that its Midland District, located in the heart of the Permian, accounted for 355 of the 700 February permits to drill new wells – more than any other district. The agency’s data also shows 358 of Texas’ 530 new oil completions for February and 34 of the 101 new gas completions for the month were in the Midland District. In its February report, RRC said that its staff had processed 1,747 total well completions year-to-date across Texas for new drills, re-entries and re-completions. It was a 5% year/year statewide increase from the 1,663 completion total for February 2021.Rossano, whose firm tracks hydraulic fracturing fleets via its Frac Spread Count, said that demand for U.S. crude and natural gas liquids in the global market – particularly from Europe – remains strong and is supporting activity throughout Texas. In addition, he said that liquefied natural gas demand should stay robust and support a significant amount of activity in East Texas, where part of theHaynesville Shale is located.Rossano also predicted that rig activity would outpace completion crews as exploration and production companies focus on stabilizing drilled but uncompleted well drawdowns and building inventory to support completion activity through the summer.He added, however, that supply chain challenges are expanding in scope. “We are seeing more logistical problems across proppant, casing, and steel…availability and just underlying cost,” Although issues tied to diesel fuel and labor costs have been ongoing, “…now the logistic problems and costs are spreading to hit all levels of inputs,” he said. “We don’t see this improving anytime soon and resulting in accelerating costs and putting a cap on the amount of spreads that can operate.”
Tribes oppose risky and unnecessary Line 5 pipeline in northern Wisconsin - The Little River Band of Ottawa Indians opposes the continued operation of Line 5 in northern Wisconsin, including the proposed rerouting of the pipeline around the Bad River Reservation, about 280 miles north of Madison.We also oppose the position taken by tribal member Ron Spoerl in a recent guest column in the Wisconsin State Journal, “Let oil and gas pipeline detour tribal land in northern Wisconsin.” Spoerl's pro-Line 5 opinions are his own and not supported by the tribe.Given what we know about climate change and advances in clean energy technology, there is no good reason to keep Line 5 open. This aging crude oil pipeline runs through the heart of the largest source of fresh water in North America -- Michigan’s beloved Straits of Mackinac. Any claims about the “safety” of this pipeline should be met with the strongest level of skepticism.That is why our tribe must respond to Spoerl's view. While he tried to use his Native American heritage in an attempt to sow division, The Little River Band of Ottawa Indians is united in its opposition to Line 5. Spoerl also could make money by contracting with Enbridge on the pipeline work. The motivation for personal profits is clouding judgment on what is right for protecting our way of life throughout the Great Lakes region. That way of life -- our businesses, homes, farms and even the ways we recreate -- are all at risk if we do not permanently shut down Line 5.The main argument Spoerl gave in favor of keeping Line 5 operational is his claim that we need to have affordable energy sources. But Line 5 has already been shut down once before. In 2020, a Michigan court-ordered shutdown of the pipeline had zero impact on gasoline prices compared to the national average.What’s more, a recent report from Environmental Defense Canada found that the oil running through Line 5 could be rerouted away from the Great Lakes with minimal impact on gasoline prices. This can be done through using other pipelines to their fullest capacity, additional rail cars and one additional marine tanker. With an estimated increase of just $0.018 in the cost of gas, this is a far better solution than pumping millions of gallons of crude oil through the heart of the Great Lakes each day.
The Latest Attempt to Stop Line 3 Hits a Snag in Tribal Court – Earlier this year, I wrote about a unique lawsuit aiming to stop the further construction of Line 3, a tar-sands oil pipeline built in 2021 that stretches for 330 miles across northern Minnesota and has been fought fiercely for nearly a decade by an Indigenous-led movement. The suit had an unlikely plaintiff: Manoomin, a grain known in English as wild rice that grows throughout the wetlands of northern Minnesota and holds immeasurable significance for Anishinaabe people. A 2018 White Earth law gave rights to the plant, part of an internationalrights of nature movement that seeks to flip dominant legal frameworks on their head. According to the complaint filed in August, the construction of the pipeline threatened Manoomin’s “inherent rights to exist, flourish, regenerate, and evolve, as well as inherent rights to restoration, recovery, and preservation.” Through a novel legal maneuver that used the rights of nature, treaty law, and the independent jurisdiction of tribal courts, it seemed possible that Line 3 could be halted, at least for a bit. But the tactic didn’t pan out. On March 10, the White Earth Band of Ojibwe Court of Appeals dismissed the August lawsuit against Minnesota’s Department of Natural Resources filed by tribal leaders on behalf of Manoomin, citing a lack of legal precedent. The lawsuit targeted a permit by the Department of Natural Resources that allowed pipeline owner, Canadian corporation Enbridge, to pump 5 billion gallons of water from the ground to clear the route for the pipeline construction. Not only was this permit given, “abruptly, unilaterally and without formal notice to tribal leaders (quasi-secretly), and without Chippewa consent,” but it would also negatively affect the level and quality of the surrounding waterways where Manoomin grows, the complaint alleged. The crux of the case was whether White Earth would be allowed to raise a legal claim in tribal court about something that happened off-reservation. When the Anishinaabe ceded their land to the United States, they retained what are called “usufructurary rights” to hunt, fish, and gather foods including wild rice as part of a series of treaties. The argument put forth by the mastermind of the case, White Earth tribal attorney Frank Bibeau, was that these treaty-protected rights extend into the ceded territories and could be enforced there by the White Earth Tribal Court. The court disagreed. “Such exercises of sovereignty must take into account the longstanding legal and judicial framework,” wrote Judges George W. Soule, Lenor Scheffler Blaeser, and David Harrington in their conclusion. “A tribal court lacks subject matter jurisdiction to hear claims based on a nonmember’s allegedly unlawful activities that occur off reservation,” and treaty law does not “confer tribal court jurisdiction” off-reservation.
$8.5K in Equipment Stolen From Oil Field Site in Laramie County - Laramie County deputies are asking for the public's help in tracking down whoever stole thousands of dollars worth of equipment from an oil field site.Sheriff's spokesman Brandon Warner says the theft occurred in the 1400 block of County Road 228."Sometime prior to March 15, industrial pumps were taken from that location," said Warner. "One was a 145 horsepower and the other a 30 horsepower." Warner says the pumps are valued at $8,500.
Supreme Court reinstates Trump-era water rule for now - (AP) — The Supreme Court on Wednesday reinstated for now a Trump-era rule that curtails the power of states and Native American tribes to block pipelines and other energy projects that can pollute rivers, streams and other waterways.In a decision that split the court 5-4, the justices agreed to halt a lower court judge’s order throwing out the rule. The high court’s action does not interfere with the Biden administration’s plan to rewrite the rule. Work on a revision has begun, but the administration has said a final rule is not expected until the spring of 2023. The Trump-era rule will remain in effect in the meantime.The court’s three liberal justices and Chief Justice John Roberts dissented. The court’s other conservative justices, including three nominated by President Donald Trump, voted to reinstate the rule.Writing for the dissenters, Justice Elena Kagan said the group of states and industry associations that had asked for the lower court’s ruling to be put on hold had not shown the extraordinary circumstances necessary to grant that request.Kagan said the group had failed to demonstrate their harm if the judge’s decision were left in place. She said the group had not identified a “single project that a State has obstructed” in the months since the judge’s decision and had twice delayed making a request, indicating it was not urgent.Kagan said the court’s majority had gone “astray” in granting the emergency petition and was misusing the process for dealing with such requests. That process is sometimes called the court’s “shadow docket” because the court provides a decision quickly without the full briefing and argument. The liberal justices have recently been critical of its use. As is typical, the justices in the majority did not explain their reasoning.
Quick Context: Strategic Release - by Rory Johnston - The Biden Administration has announced plans for the largest-ever release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): 1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) sustained for up to 180 days for a maximum of, you guessed it, 180 million barrels. This release will be supported by smaller contributions from US allies, although those specific details are yet to be made clear. Regardless of any complementary actions, 180 million barrels from the SPR is a big release and would bring the SPR back to its lowest level since 1983 (see chart). In this case, the US SPR alone would become, at least temporarily, the 20th-largest oil supplier in the world, neck and neck with the United Kingdom. While this is certainly a significant and historic effort, the big question is will it help—or hurt—the oil market’s increasingly precarious balancing act? In short, this is not the traditional purpose of the SPR—and a traditional, simple emergency sale approach applied here would be self-defeating. But there may be a more sophisticated way for the Biden Administration to deploy the SPR that facilitates both the reduction of current prices and the enhancement of effective producer price signals. The traditional purpose of the SPR is to offset temporary supply losses, like a hurricane—not structural supply scarcity stemming from a historic invasion carried out by the world’s second-largest oil exporter. And it’s hard to think of this disruption as anything resembling a temporary supply loss. If the Russia Shock is truly temporary, then the release will help offset the price pain caused by the anticipated short-term loss of Russian exports in addition to lessening the revenue upside received by Moscow, further pressuring the Kremlin. However, as I pointed out in my last piece (Oil’s Russia-Sized Hole—Part 1), even if peace is reestablished relatively quickly, the Russia Shock cannot just be written-off as a near-term loss of barrels. We could very well see a longer-term enfeebling of one of the world’s largest oil producers that results in a permanent and material loss of Russian production capacity. The efficacy of a strategic release in the face of a persistent Russia Shock is even more unclear. At first glance, I’d say that the release of this much crude to offset a structural shock is self-defeating: it will blunt the price signal needed for US shale producers, and really all non-Russian producers, to begin investing in and bringing on new production capacity.
Biden's Wasteful SPR Release - President Biden’s release of 180 million barrels, one million per day for 180 days, will prove to be a wasteful, futile gesture. Why? Both OPEC and Russia must co-operate and not further reduce oil supplied to the global market to give price relief to the U.S. consumer. They did not co-operate on the prior 50 million barrels that were released in the past few months by President Biden. Oil prices stayed high. Everyone knows the amount of oil that the U.S. has in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, just like you know the stacks of chips on the poker table. It is simple matter to run Biden out of this game. The U.S. imports 6 to 8 million bbls per day of heavy grades of crude oil to match up with our domestic refineries. Consequently, it is the global oil price that we pay domestically. Because the Obama administration eliminated the U.S. oil export ban, the release from the SPR goes into the global market. Foreign oil companies and international oil traders bought oil from the prior releases. The U.S. taxpayer spent the money to build the SPR, but the scheduled release does not directly benefit the U.S. consumer. The SPR was built to alleviate domestic supply shortages, but there are no gasoline lines or crude oil shortages. The Biden administration is just unhappy with the price of war. There is no escape from the fact that the U.S. voter is going to pay this price as consumer or taxpayer. The White House fact sheet demonstrates a shocking lack of understanding of the domestic oil industry and U.S. energy markets. It continues a disingenuous spin advanced by the Trump administration, that of the U.S. being a net energy exporter. So what? We do not fuel our cars or airplanes or tanks with coal and LNG any more than we directly fuel our vehicles with wind or solar energy. It is a false equivalency to state that 9,000 issued permits to drill on federal lands are equal to oil in storage—miles beneath the ground and requiring millions of dollars per well to extract if there really is an accumulation of oil present—and that not drilling these wells is depriving the American consumer of cheap fuel. Let’s review the situation.The domestic oil industry is starved for capital. It has been the worst performing sector in the S&P for more than a decade, and no one on Wall Street is clamoring to invest.The domestic oil industry via the shale plays, Alaska, and deep-water Gulf of Mexico is the highest cost producer in the global market.The domestic oil industry has lost tens of thousands of jobs since the Saudi-led price war that began in December 2014. These workers are not coming back.The cost of drilling wells is up by more than 30% due to the Trump steel tariffs. Steel supply chains are so disrupted that it is exceedingly difficult for oil companies to obtain the pipe and equipment they need—some now harvest pipe from old wells.The White House 2023 budget proposal eliminates tax benefits for the oil industry, and President Biden called for penalties to be levied on oil companies that have not begun drilling federal leases. If the U.S. does change long standing tax law and commercial contracts for the oil industry, the nation will join an infamous pantheon that includes Venezuela, Russia, Mexico, and Israel.Senators Sanders and Warren have called for the return of a Crude Oil Windfall Profits Tax. Such a tax failed to accomplish its goals in the 1980s, drove U.S. producers overseas, and increased our reliance on foreign suppliers. It would be a major cost increase for producers.In view of these facts and risks, put yourself in the place of a U.S. oil company executive—the White House is increasing my costs and now competing directly with me by releasing oil to drive down my price to further reduce my profits. I cannot get capital. The Saudis could just as easily flood the market again after the midterm election. What is my upside? Why take the risk?
How Biden’s Huge Strategic Oil Release Could Backfire - This week, the Biden administration revealed that it will release as much as 180 million barrels of crude oil in a bid to calm oil prices, which have remained above $100 per barrel for an extended period of time. The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, is coordinating a smaller but international reserve release of some 60 million barrels and has called an emergency meeting to discuss how exactly to go about it.It remains unclear whether part of the 180 SPR release in the United States will be a completely separate endeavor or if some of these barrels will be part of the IEA release. Earlier this year, the U.S. had agreed to release 30 million barrels as part of the IEA push. What is clear is that the success of these releases in calming down oil prices is quite unlikely.The United States last year announced the release of 50 million barrels in an effort to bring down prices t the pump, which were eroding Americans’ purchasing power and weighing on the President’s approval ratings.This pressured prices for a few days before they rebounded, driven by continued discipline among U.S. producers, equal discipline in OPEC+, and a relentless increase in demand for the commodity. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and the U.S. banned imports of Russian crude and fuels. It also sanctioned the country’s financial system heavily, making paying for Russian crude and fuels too much of a headache for the dollar-based international industry. Prices soared again before retreating some, but remain firmly in three-digit territory. As of mid-March, the Department of Energy said, some 30 million barrels of crude from the strategic petroleum reserve had been sold or leased. That’s more than half of the 50 million barrels announced in November, and it appears to have had zero effect on price movements. But the new reserve release is a lot bigger, so it should make a difference, shouldn’t it? It amounts to some 1 million bpd over several months, per reports about White House plans in this respect. Unfortunately, but importantly, oil’s fundamentals have not changed much since November. OPEC has been demonstrating increasingly bluntly that its interests and the interests of some of its biggest clients may not be in alignment right now. It has refused to openly condemn Russia for its actions in Ukraine and has not joined the Western sanction push.On the contrary, OPEC is gladly doing business with Russia. And Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two OPEC members that actually have the capacity to boost production beyond their quotas, have deemed it unwise to undermine their partnership with Russia by acquiescing to the West’s request for more oil. In this environment, releasing whatever number of barrels from strategic reserves could only provide a very short relief at the pump. Then, it may make matters even worse. As one oil market commentator on Twitter said about the SPR release news, the White House will be selling these barrels at $100 and then may have to buy them at $150. Indeed, one thing that tends to get overlooked during turbulent times is that the strategic petroleum reserve of any country needs to be replenished. It’s not called strategic for laughs. And a 180-million-barrel reserve release will be quite a draw on the U.S. SPR, which currently stands at over 580 million barrels. If oil’s fundamentals remain the same, prices will not be lower when the time to replenish the SPR comes. This seems the most likely development. The EU, the UK, and the United States have stated sanctions against Russia will not be lifted even if Moscow strikes a peace deal with the Ukraine government. This means Russian oil will continue to be hard to come by for those dealing in dollars or euros. According to the IEA, the shortfall could be 3 million barrels daily, to be felt this quarter. OPEC+ is not straying from its course. In some good news, at least, U.S. oil production rose last week for the first time in more than two months, by a modest 100,000 bpd.
Alaska oil field gas leak estimated at 7.2 mln cubic feet- More than 7.2 million cubic feet of natural gas escaped in a leak at a key Alaskan oilfield, forcing workers to evacuate and cutting production last month, operator ConocoPhillips and a state regulatory agency said. ConocoPhillips is working to seal off the leak at its Alpine field, the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission said in a report, as it determined the gas volume lost in the leak discovered a month ago that brought a cut in oil output. Overall daily Alpine production fell to a low of 36,851 barrels on March 13 from 51,700 on March 1 before the discovery, the state's revenue department said, though latest figures show output has since recovered to more than 50,000 barrels a day. As site remediation work continues, Conoco said it was placing cement in multiple steps to isolate the shallow geologic formation identified as the source of the gas. Then it will plug the source, the company said on its incident website. Last week it also received a permit for seismic surveys at the affected area, a drill site called CD1, the oldest in the Alpine field on the western North Slope. Discovery of the leak led to the temporary evacuation of about 300 of the roughly 400 workers at the field. There has been no detectable gas outside the structures enclosing the wells, though "fluctuating" low levels of gas have been reported inside the wellhouses, the regulatory agency said.
ConocoPhillips Alaska is estimating 7.2M cubic feet of gas released in Alpine leak - ConocoPhillips Alaska is estimating the leak at their Alpine site on the North Slope that started over a month ago has released 7.2 million cubic feet of natural gas.The leak was first observed on March 4, at the CD1 drill site of the Alpine Central Facility on the North Slope, which is operated by ConocoPhillips Alaska. The natural gas was observed releasing from the ground at a well house at the drill site.“Natural gas releases occurred at 7 wells on CD1 drillsite and through cracks on the pad near Doyon Rig 142,” an updated situation report from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.The estimated size of the leak had been unknown until recently, but according to the situation report, ConocoPhillips disclosed that 7.2 million cubic feet of gas had been released in an April 1 letter to the commission. “Once we got it into the hard pipe — the gas into the hard pipe — and piped it into the facility,” said Bruce Kuzyk, vice president of operations for the North Slope. “Then you can meter, monitor it and do the calculation on the actual estimate so that we have it correct.”Kuzyk said the source of the natural gas leak was 3,000 feet below the surface. The company used a “kill fluid” which was the first step, and then they moved through a series of cement injections to plug the well permanently. The leak was confirmed stopped on March 28, but there is still some gas leaking.“So at this point in some of the gravel beds around the wells, there’s minimal amount of traceable gas passing through, Kuzyk said. “But we expect that to go to zero here shortly.”ConocoPhillips initially evacuated about 300 nonessential employees from the Alpine facility when the leak was first reported, leaving a smaller number of essential personnel on site to handle it. This prompted concern among residents of Nuiqsut, just 8 miles away.The Alpine facility provides Nuiqsut with natural gas for heating homes and other buildings. While there has been no disruption to that production, there were fears early on that if ConocoPhillips had to shut down production at the facility over the leak, that could mean the village would be left with only a few days supply of natural gas.The evacuation of the Alpine employees also worried residents in Nuiqsut. The mayor previously said several families opted to leaveout of an abundance of caution.Employees that had been evacuated returned to the facility in mid-March, and Kuzyk said Wednesday things are back to normal at the site as they investigate the situation further.While ConocoPhillips has not released a cause for the gas release, and the cause is still officially listed as “under investigation” in situation reports from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, the company did say the source is a well it was drilling.“We determined the source was coming up through the annular, the outer annulus of one of the wells that we were in the process of drilling,” Kuzyk said. “So we were able to hard pipe that gas into our facility, the Alpine, so to significantly reduce the release, and run it through the process. And then at that point, we go through ... the diagnostics to figure out where the gas is coming from.”
US increased oil supplies from Russia by 43% in a week -Over the past week, US authorities have increased oil supplies from Russia by 43%, Deputy Secretary of the Security Council Mikhail Popov said in an interview with the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper. "The United States forced the Europeans to impose anti-Russian sanctions, while they themselves not only continue to import oil from Russia, but also increased the supply of "black gold" by 43% over the past week, to 100,000 barrels per day! In addition, Washington allowed its companies to export mineral fertilizers from Russia, recognizing them as essential goods," he said.According to him, Europe should expect other similar "surprises" from the US . Popov stressed that "Washington does not allow the Europeans to take similar measures yet."Russia launched a military operation on February 24 to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine . In response, Western countries announced large-scale sanctions against Moscow , primarily in the banking sector and the supply of high-tech products.The Kremlin called these measures an economic war like no other. The authorities stressed their readiness for such a development of events and assured that they would continue to fulfill social obligations. The Bank of Russia is taking measures to stabilize the situation on the foreign exchange market. The authorities also announced the transfer of payments for gas supplies to unfriendly countries into rubles. In addition, the government has prepared a plan to counter restrictive measures, which includes about a hundred initiatives. The amount of its funding will be about a trillion rubles.After US President Joe Biden announced a ban on energy imports from Russia, their prices began to rise rapidly. As Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted , the rejection of Russian oil could lead to catastrophic consequences for the world market and cause its price to jump to $300 per barrel or more.On Thursday, Biden announced a decision to release one million barrels a day from the country's strategic reserve within six months. The President of the United States also demanded that American oil producers increase their oil production more actively.
BC’s Cedar LNG Seeks Four-Year Extension to Build Export Terminal --Risks of delays in British Columbia (BC) have prompted the most advanced native Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, Cedar LNG, to request a four-year export license extension. The Cedar LNG partnership of Haisla First Nation and Pembina Pipeline Corp. has asked the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) to reset the license deadline to May 2030 for starting shipments from the planned terminal on the northern BC coast at Kitimat. “The anticipated in-service date remains subject to a number of risks and potential delays,” Cedar developers said in the application. The project sponsors cited a long list of potential pitfalls. “These include uncertainty within federal and provincial regulatory processes, global supply chain constraints, constantly evolving restrictions and impacts associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, ongoing commercial negotiations, and third-party impacts such as interruptions in gas or power supplies,” they said. “The requested extension of the license’s early expiry date is necessary to maintain the confidence of financial institutions, tolling customers and off-takers.” The project sponsors reported that difficulties of building a BC LNG industry from scratch already set back the estimated date for completing their terminal until 2027. This is a year after the May 2026 project drop-dead date set by their current export license. The project also has not been sanctioned. A final investment decision is expected next year. The setback resulted from Cedar LNG’s reliance on the Coastal GasLink pipeline for its supply. The pipeline is now under construction to move gas from the Montney Shale for the Shell plc-led LNG Canada terminal, which is also on Haisla territory at Kitimat. Access to gas, according to Cedar sponsors, was dependent upon sanctioning LNG Canada, but it was sanctioned in 2018. .
Canada to approve Equinor’s $12 billion offshore oil plan — Canada has given the green light to a $12 billion offshore oil project proposed by Norway’s Equinor ASA, leading industry groups to express approval for the government's decision and reiterate the project's importance and minimal environmental impact. The government will announce the approval later Wednesday of the Bay du Nord project about 500 kilometers (311 miles) off the coast of Newfoundland, according to a person familiar with the matter, asking not to be named because the matter is still private. It was reported first by CTV News and Canadian Broadcasting Corp. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is pleased the government "relied on the science and supported the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada’s assessment and ultimately approved the environmental assessment for this project," said Paul Barnes, director, Atlantic Canada & Arctic for CAPP. "Ensuring there is a clear, fair and transparent process for the approval of natural resource projects in Canada is critical to building confidence in Canada’s investment climate. Bay du Nord is an environmentally sound project that will provide secure, responsibly developed energy to the world," Barnes said. "CAPP thanks all who vocalized their support for this project and Newfoundland and Labrador’s offshore oil and gas industry in recent weeks, including the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador." It’s a politically-risky move for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that complicates his efforts to hit aggressive emission targets for the oil and gas sector and could potentially alienate the pro-environment bloc within the governing Liberal Party. Yet Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also prompted policy makers to reconsider the importance of the nation’s vast oil reserves to Canada’s economic security.
Biden Trade Rep Said Considering All Options as $10B of U.S. Energy Investment at Risk in Mexico --The Biden administration plans to seek recourse under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) if concerns over Mexico’s energy policies are not resolved, according to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai.“At the heart of the USMCA are core obligations with respect to trade and investment, including with respect to nondiscriminatory treatment,” Tai wrote in a letter late last month to Mexico’s economy minister Tatiana Clouthier. “For a long time now, the U.S. government has raised concerns about a series of administrative, regulatory and legislative changes in Mexico’s energy policies as violating these core obligations, including the 2021 changes to the Electric Power Industry Law,” Tai wrote.“We have also been very clear that the USMCA applies to Mexico’s energy sector, and have been candid with the Secretariat of Economy about our concerns.”Among the most controversial policies is a proposed legislative overhaul that would consolidate state-owned Comisión Federal de Electricidad’s (CFE) control over the power sector, undoing crucial components of Mexico’s market-opening 2013-2014 constitutional energy reform.Observers including Fitch Ratings Inc. have warned that the reform would cause chaos in the Mexican power market as private generators would see all of their supply contracts with non-state offtakers canceled. Tai said, “We are unable to ignore the growing group of stakeholders also raising their concerns…” They include environmental nongovernmental organizations, aka NGOs, along with “members of Congress, business associations and companies large and small.“Unfortunately,” Tai wrote, “while we have tried to be constructive with the Mexican government in addressing these concerns, there has been no change in policy in Mexico, and U.S. companies continue to face arbitrary treatment and over $10 billion in U.S. investment in Mexico, much in renewable energy installations, is now more at risk than ever.”Leadership of Mexico’s opposition Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) party has signaled it will vote against the bill. That could leave President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena coalition hard pressed to obtain the two-thirds majority needed to reform the constitution.The president said in a Tuesday press briefing he nonetheless expects enough opposition legislators to buck leadership and vote in favor of the measure.Meanwhile, Mexico’s Supreme Court was scheduled to vote Thursday on the constitutionality of a separate electric power industry law reform that was passed last year, but never implemented because of multiple lawsuits.The American Petroleum Institute (API) also has urged the Biden administration to take action on behalf of U.S. energy companies operating in Mexico.
UK Again Exploring Shale Gas Development in Push to Cut Russian Imports - The United Kingdom’s government has commissioned a study of unconventional natural gas extraction, again opening a door to shale development in the country more than two years after it was shut by regulators. Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has asked the British Geological Survey for a report by the end of June. The request was made to assess any progress that’s been made since November 2019, when the government suspended test operations in the Bowland Shale following a small earthquake. Specifically, the geological survey has been asked to explore new drilling techniques, geologic modeling or new locations, among other things, that could help minimize the seismic risk associated with unconventional drilling and completion techniques.Kwarteng noted that unconventional natural gas development in the country is years away from yielding commercial output and helping to reduce volatile near-term prices.“However, there will continue to be an ongoing demand for oil and gas over the coming decades as we transition to cheap renewable energy and new nuclear power,” he added. In light of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “criminal invasion of Ukraine, it is absolutely right that we explore all possible domestic energy sources.”UK oil production has slid by nearly 3% over the last decade or so, while natural gas production has declined by more than 4% over the same time, according to BP plc’s latest Statistical Review of World Energy. Declining oil and gas production across Europe has exacerbated a dependency on Russian fossil fuel that the continent is looking to eliminate. Kwarteng’s request comes ahead of a UK strategy scheduled to be released later this week that’s expected to detail more domestic energy production and a cut in Russian energy imports. European natural gas prices have skyrocketed this year amid the threat of Russia halting supplies to the continent. Russia provides about 40% of Europe’s natural gas imports. The UK imported 2.9 billion cubic meters (Bcm) of liquefied natural gas from Russia in 2020 and 4.7 Bcm of Russian natural gas via pipeline the same year, according to BP.
Why is there a diesel shortage? UK fuel scarcity explained as drivers complain of queues at petrol stations - Drivers in parts of south England are still complaining of a shortage of petrol, following protests outside major fuel depots.Climate activism groups Just Stop Oil and Extinction Rebellion have teamed up to block key terminals across the country in protest of the environmental impact of oil and gas.The action groups said they want to disrupt fuel supplies to London and the South East of England and will continue to do so until the Government agrees to stop all new fossil fuel investments immediately.The British Retail Consortium – a nationwide trade association – said the fuel supply issues are due to the Just Stop Oil protests, but added retailers will do “everything they can” to stabilise supplies.A spokesperson from the UK Petroleum Industry Association said most terminals remain unaffected and expect fuel deliveries to return to normal after the protesters are removed on Monday.Diesel supplies were already tight before these protests, due to an increased demand for oil after Covid-19 lockdowns.Global stocks of diesel and other middle distillates have fallen to the lowest seasonal level since 2008 due to refinery shutdowns during the start of the pandemic and a rise in demand since.Unlike Europe, which is short of diesel, the Middle East usually has a surplus.But increasing flows to Europe from the Middle East and the US will take time, one trader said, adding that for this reason “for now things will have to stay the same”.These issues have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.European economies face the risk of a shortage of diesel from sanctions on Russian energy.In the United Kingdom, Russia supplied 18 per cent of the diesel in 2020, and finding alternative supplies to replace this is very difficult as many other countries attempt to wean themselves off Russian energy supplies at the same time.A spokesperson for UK Petroleum Industry Association (UKPIA) told Reuters fuel suppliers are working with the Government to deliver the fuels the UK needs “while adjusting long-term supply routes to reduce reliance on Russian crude oil and oil products”. Moreover, all of these issues have meant prices for diesel have soared.
Ukraine tells EU to play rough with Russia on gas prices – Ukraine is telling the EU to give the Russians a taste of their own strong-arm tactics when it comes to gas prices.EU countries have been quick to condemn Russia over Ukrainian reports of war crimes, but they're still reluctant to introduce sanctions that would cut their gas purchases from Moscow's export monopoly Gazprom for fear of undermining their economies. So, Kyiv is laying out a highly unorthodox gameplan for the Europeans — one that would require legalistic Brussels bureaucrats to be as cavalier toward contracts as Russia is toward international law.Officials from Kyiv say the European Commission should take control of all EU gas purchases by designating one authority to negotiate a new price for Russian gas exports — one significantly lower than current spot rates. This new price would make it worthwhile for Gazprom to keep the gas flowing but drastically reduce the profits that fund its war in Ukraine. The price would also be pitched at a level to allow Ukraine to keep on earning transit fees — worth some $2 billion in 2020."There is a lot of opportunity for the EU to replace Russian gas, but it's really difficult to replace it in a short period of time without huge effects on the economy because its total share is 40 percent," Ukraine's Deputy Energy Minister Yaroslav Demchenkov told POLITICO.The scheme would require the EU to designate a single buyer for Russian gas, instead of the current system of private companies negotiating with Gazprom."This designated entity would be buying gas on specific conditions set by authorities — by the Commission, but it's negotiable — and would release the gas onto an exchange in Europe so that all other traders have access to these volumes on equal terms," he said.If Gazprom didn't like the idea of being deprived of its usual ability to play divide-and-rule among multiple EU buyers, Demchenkov said it would not have any choice but to face the new reality."On the key question, will Gazprom agree to this? Here we argue that Gazprom has no other options than to send gas to the EU," Demchenkov said. "Gazprom needs to export between 140 and 190 [billion cubic meters] of gas a year, and 80 percent plus of this can only go to Europe by pipeline."Those volumes can't be rerouted to China via pipeline, while Russia's liquefaction capacity is still too small to export that amount via ship to Asian markets, he added.
EU weighs ban on Russian oil over war crimes as pressure builds on Berlin – European Union officials are working on a sweeping plan to block all imports of Russian oil, amid an international outcry over alleged atrocities committed by Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine. The big question remains whether countries led by Germany will agree to a ban or seek to delay it, after holding out against an embargo on Russian energy imports in recent weeks. There are signs that Berlin may now be ready at least to consider cutting out Russian oil — even if it is not yet able to abandon imports of gas — in response to what EU officials have described as war crimes in Ukraine. Officials are now aiming to finalize the package of sanctions ahead of a meeting of EU ambassadors on Wednesday, when it would be signed off, though any ban on oil, or even coal, may not be agreed in time. The EU spends tens of billions of euros importing about one-third of its oil from Russia and a ban would directly hit President Vladimir Putin’s ability to finance his war. At the same time, such a policy threatens short-term pain for those EU economies which, like Germany, rely heavily on Russia for their energy. On Monday, four diplomats said that EU countries are considering an embargo on oil imports after leading figures across world united in condemnation at the actions of Russian soldiers.Shocking images emerged over the weekend of mass graves and dead bodies littering the streets, along with accounts of torture, rape and murder as Russian troops retreated from Bucha, outside Kyiv. The reports could mark a tipping point in Europe’s response to the war. The EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Monday said countries will advance “as a matter of urgency, work on further sanctions against Russia,” calling the reported atrocities “war crimes.” Imposing an oil ban has been discussed before. Poland and the Baltics have been calling for weeks to stop financing the Kremlin’s war machine via energy payments. But now, public outrage over the atrocities in Ukraine has led to a renewed sense that Brussels needs to go further than just strengthening the current sanctions.
EU proposes ban on Russian coal, working on oil sanctions — The European Commission on Tuesday proposed banning Russian coal as part of a new round of sanctions against the Kremlin for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. "We will impose an import ban on coal from Russia, worth 4 billion euros ($4.39 billion) per year. This will cut another important revenue source for Russia," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced Tuesday afternoon, confirming an earlier report from CNBC. It marks another significant escalation in punitive measures against the Kremlin. Imposing sanctions on the Russian energy sector has been a challenge for the bloc given the high level of dependency that some member states have on the country's resources. According to data from the European statistics office, the EU imported 19.3% of its coal from Russia in 2020. It imported 36.5% of its oil from the country in the same year, and 41.1% of its natural gas. However, mounting evidence of possible war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine has pushed the commission to propose that coal be added to a fifth package of sanctions against Moscow. "These atrocities can not and will not be left unanswered. The perpetrators of these heinous crimes must not go unpunished," von der Leyen said. She added, "Clearly, in view of events, we need to increase our pressure further." The new set of measures will be discussed by European ambassadors on Wednesday. Final approval of the sanctions won't happen until after the talks. The new set of sanctions also includes a full transaction ban on four critical Russian banks, among them VTB; a ban on Russian vessels and Russian-operated vessels from accessing EU ports; and targeted export bans worth 10 billion euros that involve quantum computers and advanced semiconductors. There has been growing pressure on Europe to target the Russian energy sector, particularly as energy-importing countries continue to top up President Vladimir Putin's war chest with oil and gas revenue on a daily basis. However, the issue divides the EU, with some nations supportive of banning Russian energy imports, while others contend that such a move would hurt their own economies more than Russia's.
Germany is Dependent on Russian Gas, Oil and Coal: Here's Why -- Last year, Russia supplied more than half of the natural gas and about a third of all the oil that Germany burned to heat homes, power factories and fuel cars, buses and trucks. Roughly half of Germany’s coal imports, which are essential to its steel manufacturing, came from Russia.Russian gas, oil and coal are embedded in the German economy and way of life. The roots run deep.The first natural gas pipeline connecting what was then West Germany to Siberia was completed in the early 1980s. The legacy of the Cold War can still been seen in the energy infrastructure in Germany’s east, which remains directly linked to Russia, making it harder to get oil from other providers into that part of the country.Today, those entanglements loom large as European leaders debate whether energy should be included in more sanctions on Russia amid growing evidence of atrocities committed by Russian troops against Ukrainian civilians. Officials in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, are caught between outrage at Russia’s aggression and their continuing need for the country’s essential commodities.“It was a mistake that Germany became so heavily dependent on energy imports from Russia,” Christian Lindner, Germany’s finance minister, said Tuesday, heading into talks with his European Union colleagues in Luxembourg.He indicated that Germany would support a fifth package of sanctions against Russia, including an import ban on Russian coal, announced Tuesday by the European Union’s president, Ursula von der Leyen. That would be a shift from Berlin’s recent insistence that energy sanctions would hurt Germany more than Russia.From the heads of leading chemical and steel companies to the makers of gummy bears, business leaders have warned that without a steady supply of gas, oil and coal, their production would grind to a halt. Nearly half of all German homes are heated with natural gas, which is also used to generate power in heavy industry. Germany’s powerful labor unions in the chemical, mining and pharmaceutical sectors have warned that serious reductions in gas imports could lead to substantial job losses.A group of economists at the Leopoldina National Academy of Sciences said in a report last month that a short-term stop of Russian gas deliveries would be “manageable” if the country could increase its reliance on other energy sources.Robert Habeck, Germany’s energy minister, is scrambling to do just that, making trips to Qatar and Washington to secure energy partnerships. Already Germany has reduced its dependence on gas from Russia by 15 percent, bringing it down to 40 percent in the first three months of the year, the energy ministry said.But industry leaders have pushed back against imposing sanctions on Russian natural gas. Turning off the taps would cause “irreversible damage,” warned Martin Brudermüller, the chief executive of BASF, the chemical producer based in southwestern Germany. Making the transition from Russian natural gas to other suppliers or moving to alternative energy sources would require four to five years, not weeks, he said.“Do we want to blindly destroy our entire national economy? What we have built up over decades?” Mr. Brudermüller said in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung last week. “I think such an experiment would be irresponsible.”The country’s makers of chocolates, snacks and sweets have also warned that gas shortages would spell doom for their ability to produce the high-energy food.“Gas is the most important energy source in most companies in the German confectionery industry,” the Association of the German Confectionery Industry, or B.D.S.I., said in a statement. “The companies in the German confectionery industry produce food and are therefore of outstanding importance for supplying the population in Germany, especially during food shortages or other emergencies.”
Putin Says Russia to Keep Supplying Gas Amid Shift to Rubles - When Putin first announced the ruble-payment demand last week, European officials rejected it, saying the move would violate contract terms. But the Kremlin Thursday published a presidential decree outlining the mechanism to allow foreign buyers to convert their dollars and euros into the Russian currency through a state-controlled bank.The Kremlin decree mandates that deliveries starting from April 1 be paid for in rubles. Foreign buyers need to open special ruble and foreign currency accounts at Gazprombank to handle payment, which can be done remotely. Buyers transfer foreign currency to pay for the gas into their accounts, Gazprombank converts the funds to rubles on the Moscow Exchange and transfers rubles into the buyer’s ruble account for payment on to Gazprom. The payment is considered complete when the rubles reach Gazprom’s account.Putin said the goal of the new mechanism was to prevent western governments from attempting to seize the payments in foreign currency or the accounts through which they went.“If gas is supplied and paid for under the traditional scheme, new dollar and euro payments can be frozen,” he said.“I think ultimately Russia wanted to send a message that as long as its gas is being paid for in time and in full (irrespectively of which currency is used), the gas will continue to flow,” said Katja Yafimava, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “If Europe were to lose supplies of Russian gas it would be not because of Russia cutting them off but because of Europe not paying for them.”Another motivation may have been to protect Gazprombank, one of the few major Russian banks that’s so far avoided the most severe western sanctions, from future restrictions, she said.
Slovak minister says paying in roubles could be an option as country needs gas (Reuters) - The economy minister of Slovakia, which relies on Russian gas for around 85% of its demand, said the country could not be cut off from Russian gas flows and if it had to pay in roubles it would, although it backed taking a common European Union stance. Russia has demanded payment for gas in roubles, but the European Commission said on Friday European companies whose supply contracts stipulate payment in euros or dollars should not meet this demand. "The gas (flow) must not stop," Slovak Economy Minister Richard Sulik said in a Sunday debate show on public broadcaster RTVS. "If there is a condition to pay in roubles, then we pay in roubles." Sulik added Slovakia would continue to work on a common approach with the EU. Slovakia said this week state gas company SPP had paid its March invoice for gas in euros, as stipulated in its contract. Sulik said the country still had six weeks to find a solution before the next gas payment is due May 20, but Slovakia could not go without deliveries. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday the change would not affect settlements until later this month. The threat of gas shortages comes after the peak demand European winter season, but it comes as European businesses and households are already facing a huge surge in energy prices.
Kremlin warns West: rouble-for-gas scheme is the 'prototype' (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin's rouble payment scheme for natural gas is the prototype that the world's largest country will extend to other major exports because the West has sealed the decline of the U.S. dollar by freezing Russian assets, the Kremlin said. Russia's economy is facing the gravest crisis since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union after the United States and its allies imposed crippling sanctions due to Putin's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Putin's main economic response so far was an order on March 23 for Russian gas exports to be paid in roubles, however the scheme allows purchasers to pay in the contracted currency which is then exchanged into roubles by Gazprombank. "It is the prototype of the system," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russia's Channel One state television about the rouble for gas payment system. "I have no doubt that it will be extended to new groups of goods," Peskov said. He gave no time frame for such a move. Peskov said that the West's decision to freeze $300 billion of the central bank's reserves was a "robbery" that would have already accelerated a move away from reliance on the U.S. dollar and the euro as global reserve currencies. The Kremlin, he said, wanted a new system to replace the contours of the Bretton Woods financial architecture established by the Western powers in 1944. "It is obvious that - even if this is currently a distant prospect - that we will come to a some new system - different from the Bretton Woods system," Peskov said. The West's sanctions on Russia, he said, had "accelerated the erosion of confidence in the dollar and euro." Putin has said the "special military operation" in Ukraine is necessary because the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia and Moscow had to defend against the persecution of Russian-speaking people by Ukraine. Ukraine has dismissed Putin's claims of persecution and says it is fighting an unprovoked war of aggression. Russian officials have repeatedly said the West's attempt to isolate one of the world's biggest producers of natural resources is an irrational act that will lead to soaring prices for consumers and tip Europe and the United States into recession.
Estonia to stop importing Russian gas by end of 2022 -- Estonia will stop importing Russian gas by the end of 2022, the government agreed in principle on Thursday. Liquified natural gas (LNG) storage capacity in the form of a floating terminal will be created in Northern Estonia in fall. "We must stop buying gas from Putin's regime as soon as we can since they are using the revenue from sales of it to fund their war against Ukraine," said Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) in a statement. "We have decided to increase our national gas supply and to establish a facility in Paldiski for the storage of LNG so that a floating terminal can be taken into use from autumn. This represents an opportunity not only for Estonia but for our region more widely, to head into winter without any dependence on Russian gas." Kallas said the government's aim is to favor gas produced from LNG in bolstering its supplies. "What we are very much hoping to see from gas sellers is that their moral compass is pointing in the right direction in this regard," she said. "Moreover, our position in principle is that any LNG ship that reaches Paldiski should not be carrying Russian gas."
Kazakh oil production down on Russian transit bottleneck -Oil production in Kazakhstan has fallen in the first days of April as the country continues to see mounting restrictions on its two export routes to international markets. According to data from the country’s Energy Ministry, quoted by Kazakh industry channel Energy Monitor, total oil output was running between 20% and 25% below average production compared with the first days of March. The data shows output running between 1.5 million and 1.57 million barrels per day on April 4 and 5. Exports restrictions are costing about $43 million per day to a domestic oil production sector dominated by three major foreign-led developments, Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak, according to estimates by Energy Monitor. Kazakhstan Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov issued a statement that the main export pipeline for Kazakh producers, operated by Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), is working at about 60% of its capacity. Two out of three floating tanker loading buoys used by CPC near the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were damaged during a severe storm two weeks ago and remain out of operation. With CPC signalling that repairs at the damaged buoys are expected to last until the end of April, Kazakh producers are hoping to divert export shipments using the Atyrau–Samara link between Kazakhstan and the Russian trunkline system, operated by Transneft. But Moscow news agency Interfax quoted Transneft as saying that its network was reaching capacity in the first days of April as the inflow of oil put into the system by Russian producers surpassed outflow at export points and domestic refineries, possibly as a result of US sanctions and a reluctance among international buyers to deal with Russian crude. Transneft acknowledged that it had been unable to transit Kazakh oil that has been arriving into its network via the Atyrau–Samara link, to export destinations in the north-west and south of Russia, earlier this month, switching more of it to storage, according to Interfax. Russian authorities have delayed the release of official oil production figures for March after reports said European buyers had been avoiding tankers with Russian oil because of international sanctions against the country and pressure from the public, concerned about continued Russian military aggression in Ukraine.
OPEC+ crude production falls as sanctions take bite out of Russia: S&P Global survey | S&P Global Commodity Insights - Crude oil production by OPEC and its allies fell in March from February for the first time in more than a year, the latest S&P Global Commodity Insights survey found, contributing to a tightening market thrown in flux by the Russia-Ukraine war. Western sanctions began biting into primary non-OPEC partner Russia's oil flows, and sizable disruptions in Kazakhstan and Libya also led the coalition's production lower, the survey found. OPEC's 13 members raised output by 60,000 b/d to 28.73 million b/d, but that was more than offset by a 160,000 b/d decline by the bloc's nine allies, who pumped 13.91 million b/d. With the net decline of 100,000 b/d, the widening gap between the OPEC+ production and quotas jumped to a record-high 1.24 million b/d—casting further doubt on the group's ability to meet growing global oil demand, which many analysts expect to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022. The drop was the first since February 2021, when Saudi Arabia instituted a unilateral voluntary 1 million b/d cut to help prop up the market that at the time was still wobbly from resurgent coronavirus cases. Since August, with the global economy on firmer footing, the producer group has stuck to a plan of gradually raising quotas by 400,000 b/d each month but has faced mounting pressure from the US, India, Japan, and other major oil-consuming nations for accelerated supplies to cool off rising energy prices. But several countries have not hit their output targets in months, and March's shortfall resulted in a compliance figure of 148% for the 19 members with quotas, according to S&P Global calculations. Iran, Libya, and Venezuela are exempt from quotas under the OPEC+ agreement. Concerns over OPEC+ production capabilities, in combination with the Russia-Ukraine war and recovering oil demand, have helped lift the Platts Dated Brent benchmark to nearly $140/b in recent weeks, although it dropped to $98.28/b April 7 as the International Energy Agency announced a 120 million barrel stock release from strategic petroleum reserves, led by the US. OPEC+ officials have attributed the volatility to geopolitics, and not market fundamentals. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, one of just a handful of countries that appears to hold significant spare capacity, kept its production steady in March at 10.25 million b/d, the survey found. Ship-tracking data indicated its exports fell during the month, but several analysts surveyed cited increased refinery runs and said storage volumes may have also increased. Non-OPEC leader Russia, hit by western sanctions targeting its financial sector, saw its crude production fall to 10.04 million b/d, the survey found. Many traders have stopped transacting with Russian commodities, and analysts expect production shut-ins to build up in April and May, though some flows are shifting to Asian customers. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia had quotas of 10.33 million b/d for the month. Neighboring Kazakhstan saw the biggest fall in production, with storm damage to the loading terminal of the CPC pipeline causing major disruptions. Kazakh output was 1.55 million b/d in March, and officials have warned of further impacts in April from the outage. Libyan output fell 50,000 b/d in March, with the country's largest oil field, Sharara, shut from March 3-8 due to civil unrest. The Elephant, or El Feel, field remains offline due to sabotage, officials have said. Among the gainers, Iraq saw the largest rise, pumping 4.34 million b/d, slightly under its quota of 4.37 million b/d. The country brought back its giant West Qurna 2 field from maintenance about two weeks early in early March and also saw its Nassiriya field disrupted for a few days at the start of the month because of protests. Sources and satellite data indicated considerable inventory builds. Venezuela posted a 40,000 b/d gain in March, the survey found, benefitting from the arrival of two cargoes of Iranian condensate that enabled a production rebound in the Orinoco Belt. Extracting the region's extra-heavy crude requires diluent, which US sanctions have made it difficult for Venezuela to obtain, although Iran has been sending cargoes under a bilateral agreement. The survey figures, which measure wellhead production, are compiled using information from oil industry officials, traders, and analysts, as well as reviewing proprietary shipping, satellite, and inventory data.
Is Today’s Energy Shortage Worse Than The 1970s Oil Crisis? - In the 1970s oil crisis, the price of oil soared fourfold over three months following the embargo. At the time, the United States had thought that the lost market share would hurt the producer states financially. But instead, those producers made up for that market share loss with considerably higher prices. Consumers in the United States, however, suffered a severe blow in the form of fuel shortages and urgent energy conservation measures as the country’s consumption of oil had been growing incessantly for decades thanks to the cheap Middle Eastern oil.Interestingly, although the embargo did not involve Europe, the continent suffered an even more severe blow because of the way prices rose following the Arab producers’ move. Fuel rationing was put in place and national speed limits were introduced to conserve fuel.The latter measure, about speed limits, may sound familiar to those following the International Energy Agency’s recommendations for energy conservation: it is one of the ten steps the IEA listed as necessary to reduce the EU’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels.The fact that today’s shortage involves all the fossil fuels rather than just oil is one of the reasons this crisis could be worse than the one in the 1970s, according to Yergin, who made his comments in an interview with Bloomberg this week.“I think this is potentially worse,” the expert told Bloomberg. “It involves oil, natural gas, and coal, and it involves two countries that happen to be nuclear superpowers.”Leaving aside the understandable unease that the latter part of the statement would spark in anyone in Europe or North America, the first one is telling. Europe depends on Russia for close to half of its coal and natural gas imports and about a quarter of its crude oil imports. And the EU just decided to ban Russian coal imports in an attempt to hurt the Russian economy as punishment for Russia’s actions in Ukraine.Here’s what happened after the announcement of the ban, which has yet to be approved, by the way. Indonesia hiked its own coal prices by 42 percent, Australian coal miners reported they have limited ability to replace Russian coal, and Asian coal prices soared amid reports that European buyers were hunting for replacement coal.What’s happening in coal is pretty much what will be happening in oil and gas. As Yergin noted in his interview with Bloomberg, the global natural gas market is already quite tight, and there is no ready replacement for Russian gas should it stop flowing. That’s despite efforts on the part of U.S. LNG producers to boost exports.
Oil major Shell to write off up to $5 billion in assets after exiting Russia -- Shell has announced that it will write off between $4 and $5 billion in the value of its assets after pulling out of Russia following the country's unprecedented invasion of Ukraine. Thursday's announcement offers a first glimpse at the potential financial impact to Western oil majors of exiting Russia. "For the first quarter 2022 results, the post-tax impact from impairment of non-current assets and additional charges (e.g. write-downs of receivable, expected credit losses, and onerous contracts) relating to Russia activities are expected to be $4 to $5 billion," Shell said in a statement Thursday. "These charges are expected to be identified and therefore will not impact Adjusted Earnings." Shell had previously estimated that Russia write-downs would reach $3.4 billion. Further details of the impact of ongoing developments in Ukraine will be set out in Shell's first-quarter earnings report on May 5, the company said. Shell was forced to apologize on March 8 for buying a heavily discounted consignment of Russian oil two weeks after Russia's invasion. It subsequently announced that it was withdrawing from its involvement in all Russian hydrocarbons. The company said it would no longer purchase Russian crude oil and would shut its service stations, aviation fuels and lubricants operations in Russia. The company had already vowed to exit its joint ventures with Russian gas giant Gazprom and its related entities. In Thursday's update, Shell also said its cashflow is expected to be hit by "very significant working capital outflows as price increases impacting inventory have led to a cash outflow of around $7 billion."
Shells 2021 oil spills double in volume, pays $6bn tax in 5 years - Shell has said the volume of crude oil spills caused by sabotage in Nigeria’s oil-rich Delta more than doubled to 3,300 tonnes last year, a level last seen in 2016. While the volume of spills rose, the number of major spills fell to 106 in 2021 from 122 incidents the previous year, Shell said in its sustainability report. It said in 2020, oil spills in Nigeria stood at 1,500 tonnes. On the other hand, Shell said, it has paid $6 billion as tax to the Federal Government in the last six years through the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS). Shell is the operator of Nigeria’s main onshore oil and gas joint venture SPDC which has struggled for years to contain spills in the Delta caused due to operational incidents, theft and sabotage. A Nigerian court last month stopped Shell from selling any assets in Nigeria until a decision is reached on the company’s appeal of a nearly $2 billion penalty for alleged oil spill. With payment of $6 billion in direct taxes in the five years the Federal Inland Revenue Service, FIRS has named Shell as a “leading tax compliant organisation in Nigeria for 2021.” At an award ceremony in Abuja last week as part of the second annual National Tax Dialogue, Shell companies in Nigeria also won the award for ‘remarkable performance in the remittance of various taxes’ in the same year. The Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC), Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) and Shell Nigeria Gas paid a combined $6 billion in direct taxes between 2015 and 2020 to the government.
NOSDRA raises alarm over increased oil spills The National Oil Spills Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) has raised an alarm over rising spate of oil spills caused by sabotage, oil theft and pipeline vandalism. To - this end, the Director-General of NOSDRA, Dr Idris Musa has charged oil operators to tighten security on their assets to avert damage to the environment and loss of oil and gas revenue. Musa in a statement explained that three incidents investigated within the past few days were traced to sabotage. He added that the ongoing gas leak from a gas line operated by Nigerian Agip Oil Company in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State was due to the activities of vandals. The statement reads in part, “The Agency received a report of a Joint Investigation Visit on 6” Nembe/Obama Pipeline at Sabatoru, Nembe L.G.A. Bayelsa State. “The incident occurred proximal to an artisanal refining site which operators are suspected to have vandalised the pipeline to steal crude oil. “Similarly, there was another vandalised pipeline on the 20” Kolo Creek-Rumuekpe pipeline at Otuasega also in Bayelsa State. There was no oil spill in that instance. “A gas pipeline was also vandalised on the 24” Ogboinbiri/OB-OB gas delivery line at Okaka behind Bayelsa Palm Estate in Yenagoa. “This vandalism has a backlash on the main gas delivery pipeline from the OB-OB gas plant of the Nigerian Agip Oil Company. “We implore the oil companies operating in the area to place more surveillance on their assets to avoid wanton destruction of economic assets as well as the environment.”
Gas revenue tops oil export by 1,076% in 3 months - Revenue from a gas feedstock for Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) export topped crude oil export sales by 1,076.6 percent in the three months of December 2021 to February 2022, the latest figure from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited has shown. Checks by Vanguard on NNPC Limited reports to the Federation Account Allocation Committee in the past three months showed that while crude oil export fetched the nation just $10.09 million over the three months, feedstock to NLNG amounted to $108.63 million. With over 204 trillion standard cubic feet of gas reserves, Nigeria has moved toward developing its gas reserves with the declaration of the decade of gas by the Federal Government last year. Speaking on Nigeria’s move towards gas, the Minister of State Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva said at the Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum: “We have embarked on a critical pathway to ensure that the over 200 Trillion Standard Cubic Feet (TSCF) proven reserves of Natural gas in Nigeria is marshaled to engender domestic economic growth and development beyond 2030.
Nigerian oil ship blast followed $200 million debt trail— The owners of an oil-production and storage ship had a history of financial problems before the vessel blew up in Nigerian waters two months ago. The Trinity Spirit, which caught fire on Feb. 2, burned for more than 24 hours and left a stain of crude stretching for miles across the Atlantic Ocean. While the cause of the accident hasn’t yet been determined, the “inferno” meant only a “low level” of crude was spilled, according to Idris Musa, director-general of Nigeria’s National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency. The Environment Ministry estimates that up to 60,000 barrels of oil were on board the ship at the time of the blaze. The fatal incident occurred amid an ongoing trail of debt. Creditors have filed lawsuits against the company operating the ship, Nigeria-registered Shebah Exploration and Production Co., in at least three countries, accusing the firm of defaulting on multiple financial agreements. These include two bank loans for a combined $220 million and a contract for the management of the vessel itself, according to court documents and corporate statements. Ambrosie Bryant Orjiako, a prominent businessman and president of Shebah, acted as the personal guarantor of a $150 million loan taken by the company in mid-2012 from the African Export-Import Bank and two Nigerian lenders to fund a drilling program on the firm’s oil license. Shebah leased the vessel from one of its shareholders named Allenne Ltd., a company registered in the British Virgin Islands of which Orjiako was a director, according to court filings. Orjiako is best-known as a founder of Seplat Energy Plc, which has grown since 2009 into Nigeria’s largest independent oil producer and in February agreed to pay $1.3 billion for Exxon Mobil Corp.’s shallow-water assets in the country. Seplat has no involvement with the Trinity Spirit or any of Shebah’s legal disputes, Orjiako said by email, declining to comment on any matters that are still in court. He referred questions regarding the vessel to Shebah Chief Executive Officer Ikemefuna Okafor, who didn’t respond to emails or calls. Orjiako announced in November that he will step down as Seplat’s chairman in May. Shebah stopped paying down the Afreximbank loan after meeting a single $6.1 million installment, according to a lawsuit filed by the lenders in the U.K. against the company, Allenne and Orjiako. In February 2016, a judge ruled that the banks were entitled to $143.9 million, which remains unpaid and has doubled with interest, Afreximbank said in a statement. The banks “continue to consider their options for recovery,” Afreximbank said through its law firm Baker McKenzie. Orjiako, 61, had argued that delays by Afreximbank in releasing the funding led to drilling contractors either withdrawing or withholding their services, according to a defense he submitted to the London court in September 2015. A U.K. judge dismissed an appeal by Shebah and Orjiako against the decision in mid-2017.
ExxonMobil reaches FID on $10bn Guyana offshore oil field development - ExxonMobil, together with its partners, has reached a final investment decision for the development of Yellowtail oil field, located in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana. Discovered in 2019, Yellowtail is a conventional oil development located in ultra-deepwater, and has received all the required government and regulatory approvals. It forms the company’s fourth and largest development project in the Stabroek Block, and is expected to produce around 250,000 barrels of oil per day, starting from 2025. The project will use the ONE GUYANA floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO), for six drill centres, planned with up to 26 production wells and 25 injection wells. Yellowtail is estimated to develop a resource base of around 925 million barrels of oil. ExxonMobil upstream company president Liam Mallon said: “Yellowtail’s development further demonstrates the successful partnership between ExxonMobil and Guyana, and helps provide the world with another reliable source of energy to meet future demand and ensure a secure energy transition. “We are working to maximize benefits for the people of Guyana and increase global supplies through safe and responsible development on an accelerated schedule.” According to ExxonMobil, its ongoing offshore exploration in Guyana showed a recoverable resource of more than 10 billion oil-equivalent barrels. The company plans up to 10 projects on the Stabroek block to develop this resource.
Petrobras reports new oil discovery in the pre-salt -Petrobras, informs that discovered a new oil accumulation in the pre-salt in the southern portion of the Campos Basin, in a wildcat well in the Alto de Cabo Frio Central block. The well 1-BRSA-1383A-RJS (Alto de Cabo Frio Central Noroeste) is located 230 km from the city of Rio de Janeiro-RJ, in a water depth of 1,833 meters. The oil-bearing interval was verified by means of loggings and oil samples, which will later be characterized by laboratory analyses. The consortium will continue drilling the well to the final depth originally planned, in order to assess the dimensions of the new accumulation, and to characterize the quality of the fluids and reservoirs found. The outcome is the result of a successful strategy of the consortium based on maximum use of data, and on the application of new technological solutions in Big Data and Artificial Intelligence, leveraged by the use of supercomputers and HPC (High Performance Computing) resources, enabling the processing of the acquired data in real time and allowing decision making in an agile and safe way.
Company allowed to search for oil and gas off Taranaki coast despite ban --When is a ban on new offshore oil and gas exploration, really a ban? That's the question environmentalists are asking after discovering Greymouth Petroleum has been given permission to conduct a massive seismic survey off the coast of Taranaki - with the likelihood of more activity to come. The crown minerals regulator has allowed Greymouth Petroleum to piggyback off an existing mining permit to survey an adjacent area of more than than 260 square kilometres. The move initially puzzled Climate Justice Taranaki researcher Catherine Cheung. "Why would they allow further seismic survey if, as we understand, there's no new offshore petroleum permits. "Then what's the point in more seismic testing that's outside any existing permit." She said it made a mockery of the 2018 amendment to the Crown Minerals Act which banned any new offshore oil and gas exploration. "At the time of the announcement of the offshore ban we were just so excited but as time goes on we learn that it's nothing like it sounds. "It just has so many loopholes that companies can keep going and can even go further, bigger and longer than they were previously allowed." In a statement, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment said the 2018 amendment preserved many rights for existing permit holders. That included doing seismic surveys in an adjacent area if no other permit was in force there. Cheung reckoned she knew what was happening. Late last year a judicial review found that the regulator, New Zealand Petroleum and Minerals, was wrong to turn down Greymouth's bid in 2017 for what could become the country's last new offshore oil and gas exploration permit. The bid was now being reappraised.
Bangladesh faces natural gas crisis due to supply crisis from Bibiyana -- Bangladesh faces natural gas crisis due to supply crisis from Bibiyana Abrupt fall in gas supply from the country’s largest producing Bibiyana gas field ensued countrywide natural gas crisis affecting gas-guzzling industries, power plants, and household consumers. Household consumers across the country have struggled in making iftar items as gas pressure fell sharply due to the gas crisis, it has been alleged. Natural gas output from US’s oil and gas major Chevron operated Bibiyana gas field dropped by around one-third to around 800 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) Sunday from around 1,275 mmcfd of Friday, said sources. “Two process trains in Bibiyana gas plant are down due to maintenance since 1:15 am Sunday, which has resulted in lower production of gas from the field,” Chevron’s communications manager Shaikh Jahidur Rahman said. “Our field operations team is working to bring the trains back online. At this moment we are unable to inform about the time required to resume full production from the field,” he said. Energy and Mineral Resources Division (EMRD) and Power Division under the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources (MPEMR) expressed sorrow to the consumers due to the natural gas and electricity crisis. They hoped that the problem will be resolved soon.
Oil production in Iran reaches pre-sanction levels | Daily Sabah Iran's oil production has recovered to the level it was at in 2018, before the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from a nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions on the country, a top Iranian official reported Monday. "Oil production has reached pre-sanctions figures, despite economic pressures," said Mohsen Khojastehmehr, CEO of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), quoted by state news agency IRNA on Sunday. Iran is currently engaged in negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear dealthat would grant it much-needed sanctions relief in return for major curbs on its nuclear program. The U.S., under then President Donald Trump, unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018 and reimposed stringent sanctions, prompting Iran to begin rolling back on its commitments under the deal the following year. Production has been restored to the pre-sanctions level of 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd), Khojastehmehr said, after it had sharply declined following the reimposition of sanctions.President Ebrahim Raisi's government invested $500 million to restore facilities and increase production to pre-sanctions levels within six months, he added. Oil Minister Javad Owji said Friday that oil revenues for the last Iranian calendar year, which came to a close on March 20, registered $18 billion, about 2.5 times more than the previous year. In a monthly report, the OPEC group of oil-producing countries estimated that Iran produced 2.54 million bpd of oil in February.
Global oil supply, demand & prices become clear despite the fog of war. - — Enverus Intelligence Research, a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has released its latest PetroLogic report, The Fog of War. In it, EIR assesses the outlook for oil supply amid sanctions on Russian energy and what that could mean for prices in the near term. “With oil prices persistently high since Russia’s late February invasion of Ukraine, we have pared by more than 50% of our expectations for demand growth this year. We now expect global oil demand to grow about 1.5 MMbbl/d Y/Y in 2022, subject to further revision as GDP forecasts are adjusted lower,” said Bill Farren-Price, lead report author and director of Enverus Intelligence Research. “Faced with technical challenges and potential reputational damage, European buyers are avoiding Russian cargoes, which were down by ~1.5 MMbbl/d in early March.” Key takeaways from the report:
- EIR now project stock draws through 2022 until Q4, which is mostly in balance as demand growth eases, reflecting lower supply and easing demand as higher prices bite. Our Brent price forecast is now anchored above $100/bbl, reflecting tighter balances on the back of the Ukraine war.
- The March surge in Brent prices towards $140 brings a focus onto the risks to oil demand. EIR has halved its forecast for oil demand growth in 2022 and GDP downgrades will erode that view further in the coming month.
Oil markets pricing in demand loss or more output: Vitol | S&P Global Commodity Insights The global oil markets are pricing in either a demand loss or more output from countries such as the US amid the global release of oil stocks and recessionary threats in some economies, the head of Vitol Asia said April 3. "For the market to trade down as it has done, that's telling you that the market is expecting a demand loss... or a production increase from places like US shale of more than 2 million b/d," Mike Muller told the Gulf Intelligence daily energy markets podcast. The US announced on March 31 plans to sell an unprecedented 1 million b/d from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months as part of efforts to rein in gasoline prices that have soared following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The International Energy Agency followed suit and agreed on April 1 to a second emergency release of oil reserves in response to "market turmoil' caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and said details of the release would come early next week. The news of the global oil stocks release sent oil prices down, with Platts Dated Brent assessed on April 1 at $107.425/b, down 2.42% on the day, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. The IEA had previously estimated that Russian oil losses could reach 3 million b/d in the second quarter, but most forecasts are more cautious estimating 1 million b/d - 2 million b/d. S&P Global forecasts 2.8 million b/d of Russian crude production shut-ins due to export dislocations from sanctions and buyer aversion from late April through the end of 2022. Disruptions are estimated to moderate to 2 million b/d by end-2023 as barrels are redirected and/or more cargoes are "cautiously purchased." The crude markets are also dealing with lockdowns in China, the world's second largest oil consumer, which has imposed restrictions on movements in several cities to fight the spread of omicron variants. Moreover, OPEC+ is likely to keep increasing oil production quotas according to previous plans, despite the disruption of Russian supplies, Muller said. "There was a global stock draw that the world is predicting on the basis of OPEC+ continuing to hold their line, not least because there is very little extra production available out of anywhere than core OPEC these days," he said. OPEC+ ministers in their March 31 meeting stuck to their planned 432,000 b/d production hike in May, despite pressure to tap additional spare capacity and boost output further. The OPEC+ alliance, which controls some half of global oil supply, has gradually rolled back the record production cuts it instituted during the worst of the pandemic, saying it aims to balance supply with emerging demand from the recovery. Internal OPEC+ analysis showed that the group pumped 1.053 million b/d below its targets for February, as many members were unable to raise production due to natural field declines, inadequate infrastructure and a general lack of investment exacerbated by the coronavirus market crash. The delay in reaching an Iranian nuclear deal is also another setback for oil markets, which were anticipating a return of their crude in the second quarter of 2022, Muller said.
Hedge funds grapple with triple uncertainties on oil: Kemp - (Reuters) - Investors made few changes to petroleum positions last week as prices remained poised between upside risks from the disruption of Russian exports and downside risks from recession and China's coronavirus outbreaks. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 15 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to March 29, according to position records. Fund sales reversed purchases of 16 million barrels the previous week - but the reporting deadline came before the announcement of a record release of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve on March 31. The latest changes included liquidation of 10 million barrels of previous bullish long positions and the initiation of 6 million barrels of new bearish short positions. There were small sales of Brent (-8 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-4 million), U.S. gasoline (-3 million) and European gas oil (-2 million) partially offset by small purchases of U.S. diesel (+2 million). Net long positions across all six contracts amounted to just 553 million barrels (39th percentile for all weeks since 2013) although the ratio of long to short positions was still relatively high at 4.81:1 (61st percentile). The disparity was consistent with a cautious approach among fund managers amid conflicting pressures on prices, high levels of uncertainty and elevated volatility, which makes taking and holding positions risky and expensive. Reflecting this, the number of open futures positions held by all traders across the six contracts fell by a further 59 million barrels to 5,059 million, the fewest since May 2015. Like other traders, funds were struggling to resolve the triple uncertainty from the disruption of Russia's oil exports, signs of a slowdown in the major economies, and China's worsening outbreaks of coronavirus. Funds were significantly more bullish about the outlook for refined fuels and especially middle distillates rather than crude, reflecting the low level of diesel and gas oil inventories around the world. Even in distillates, however, bullishness stemming from low inventories and the impact of the conflict on Russia's exports was tempered by concerns about economic slowdowns evident in the United States, Europe, China and the rest of Asia.
Oil prices slightly dip after Biden announces largest-ever oil reserve release Global oil prices dipped Sunday amid a ceasefire agreement on the Saudi-Yemeni border, which boosted supply, days after they seemed to stabilize. Last week, oil prices fell around 13 percent after President Joe Biden announced the largest-ever U.S. oil reserves release, intending to help alleviate record-high gas prices across the U.S. Oil prices were higher in early Asian trade, on reports that support for a European Union-wide ban on the purchase of Russian oil is growing inside the bloc. Brent crude futures fell $1.01, or 1%, to $103.38, while WTI crude futures fell 84 cents, or 0.9%, to $98.43 a barrel, Reuters reported. Phil Flynn told Reuters that the truce between the United Arab Emirates and an Iranian group will welcome additional oil supply, easing tensions in the region and in the markets. The truce is the first of its kind amid the two parties' 7-year conflict, Reuters reported. On Thursday, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 180 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Oil prices fall after truce in Middle East conflict, SPR news (Reuters) - Oil prices fell at the start of Asian trade on Sunday, after the United Arab Emirates and the Iran-aligned Houthi group welcomed a truce that would halt military operations on the Saudi-Yemeni border, alleviating some concerns about potential supply issues. The early losses this week come after oil prices settled down around 13% last week - their biggest weekly falls in two years - when U.S. President Joe Biden announced the largest-ever U.S. oil reserves release. Brent crude LCOc1 futures fell $1.01, or 1%, to $103.38 a barrel by 2223 GMT. WTI crude CLc1 futures fell 84 cents, or 0.9%, to $98.43 a barrel. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has welcomed the announcement of a U.N.-brokered truce in Yemen, the UAE's state news agency WAM reported on Saturday. The Iran-aligned Houthi group, which has been fighting a coalition including the UAE in Yemen, also welcomed the truce. The nationwide truce is the first for years in Yemen's seven-year conflict and will allow fuel imports into Houthi-held areas and some flights to operate from Sanaa airport, a United Nations envoy said on Friday. "This was a threat to supply, and a ceasefire would reduce that threat to supply," Market participants have been concerned about global supplies since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February. Sanctions imposed on Russia over the invasion disrupted oil supplies and drove oil prices to nearly $140 a barrel, the highest in about 14 years.
Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices To Record Premiums - The world’s largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, raised its official selling prices for its flagship crude to the Asian market in May to a fresh record against regional benchmarks, in a move widely expected by traders and refiners.The Saudis hiked the OSP for May for Asia for Arab Light—the Kingdom’s flagship grade—to a record premium of $9.35 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark, off which Middle Eastern crude is priced in Asia.The price for May is raised by a massive $4.40 a barrel over the April OSP for Arab Light of $4.95 a barrel premium over Oman/Dubai, per Bloomberg’s estimates.Last week, a Bloomberg survey showed that Asian refiners and traders expectedSaudi Arabia to once again hike significantly the prices of its crude going to Asia in May to a record premium over the Middle Eastern benchmarks. For May, Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco hiked the prices of all its crude going to all markets.The soaring oil prices and the “buyers’ strike” over purchasing Russian crude could be an opportunity for Russia’s key ally in the OPEC+ pact, OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia, to hike its official selling prices to another all-time high over the Oman/Dubai benchmark.Saudi Arabia generally sets the pricing trends of the other major Middle Eastern oil producers, and it usually sets the OSPs of its crude for the following month around the fifth of each month, typically after the monthly OPEC+ meeting.Last week, the OPEC+ meeting concluded that no change in production plans was needed, and agreed to lift the group’s production by another 432,000 barrels per day starting in May.The 32,000 bpd above the originally agreed to 400,000 bpd is due to shifting baselines of five of its members.Saudi Arabia’s production quota has been lifted to 10.549 million bpd, and Russia’s quota was raised to the same amount.
Futures Jump on News of Saudi Price Hikes: Report --Oil jumped on Monday, rising by as much as 4% after Saudi Arabia raised prices for some of its biggest customers to record highs for May, according to a Bloomberg report. Brent crude futures were up 3.4% on Monday at $107.88 a barrel, having risen to a session high of $108.19, while West Texas Intermediate was up 4% at around $103.25 a barrel. Oil prices soared to 14-year highs in March, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine threw uncertainty around oil supply, as the country is the world's second largest oil exporter. Surging cases of COVID in China, the world's largest importer of energy, has dampened some of that bullishness, as investors have grown concerned about the potential impact to demand. Saudi Aramco, the country's state oil producer, will raise the selling price for its flagship Arab light crude for next month's shipments to Asia to $9.35 a barrel over its benchmark, Bloomberg said. This represents a price hike of $4.40 a barrel from the previous month, which was already a record high. Traders tend to view a price rise as a sign that a seller is not worried about a drop-off in demand. Saudi Aramco's price increase follows last week's OPEC+ meeting at which the group decided to stick to its existing supply plan and resisted international pressure to raise output more quickly to help tame sky-high energy prices. The US and UK are banning imports of Russian oil and gas, while the European Union has yet to make a decision on the matter as the importance of Russian energy to several member states holds the union back. With lockdowns in place in various big Chinese cities to control the spread of COVID, fewer people than usual will be travelling over the Qingming festival this week, when millions of people take to the roads and the skies to visit relatives and friends. This could dent demand even further. "The China holiday is definitely muting trading volumes in Asia today, leaving Brent crude unchanged at USD 104.50, and WTI unchanged at USD 99.35.
Oil Spikes After Saudi Hiked OSPs, EU Mulls Russian Oil Ban - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange powered higher in afternoon trade Monday, with both U.S. and international crude benchmarks gaining more than 4% after Saudi Aramco raised its official selling prices for Asian and European buyers next month, signaling strong demand growth despite signs of demand destruction in some major oil-consuming economies, while escalating violence in Ukraine against civilians led to renewed calls to enforce an official ban on Russian energy exports. The war in Ukraine continues to drive the narrative in the oil market after grim images of battered bodies left in the open on the streets of Bucha in the outskirts of Kyiv sparked calls for tougher sanctions against the Kremlin, namely a cutoff of fuel imports from Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday there is "clear evidence of war crimes" in Bucha that demand new punitive measures, adding "I'm in favor of a new round of sanctions and in particular on coal and gasoline." Germany, however, maintained its posture that phasing out Russian energy exports is simply unattainable at the moment due to a high degree of reliance on Russian oil, gas, and coal imports. For reference, about half of Germany's imports of gas and hard coal, and about one-third of its oil imports originate from Russia. In total, Germany depends on Russia for about one-third of its total energy consumption. Within the German economy, gas is predominantly used for industrial production, accounting for roughly 36% of demand, followed by households with 31%, and trade and commerce at about 13%. Should Germany cut off Russian gas imports, it would mostly affect the industrial backbone of the German economy -- a step politicians have been reluctant to take. Separately, Saudi Aramco raised its official selling prices (OSP) across the board for May loading cargoes, with Asia-bound barrels seeing the largest increases, between $2.70 and $4.40 barrel (bbl), according to a pricing document Aramco released Monday. For Northwest Europe-bound crude, Aramco lifted its extra light grade the most, by $3.80 to an $8.10 bbl premium to ICE Brent, and its light grade increased $3 to a $4.60 bbl premium. Arab medium was increased $1.40 to a $1.90 bbl premium, while Arab heavy rose 30 cents to a $1.10 bbl discount to ICE Brent. For U.S.-bound crudes, Aramco increased all grades by $2.20 from April. The April extra light OSP was set at a $7 bbl premium over ASCI. Arab light, medium, and heavy grades were up as well at premiums of $5.65 bbl, $4.95 bbl, and $4.50 bbl, respectively. On the session, NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $4.01 to settle at $103.28 bbl, and the ICE June Brent contract gained $3.14 to $107.53 bbl. NYMEX May ULSD futures rallied 12.21 cents to $3.5461 gallon, and the May RBOB contract jumped 4.46 cents to a $3.1981 gallon settlement.
Global cash crude prices tumble from record premiums versus futures (Reuters) -Cash prices for key crude oil grades produced in the Middle East, Europe and the United States have slumped in recent weeks from record premiums to futures benchmarks, as refiners balk at higher operating costs and major economies get set to release a flood of oil from strategic reserves. Crude benchmarks traded in spot markets around the world are often predictive of the direction of global futures prices. Right now, declining premiums for grades from the Middle East, the North Sea and west Texas all suggest that the decision from big consumers to release crude reserves is having a dampening effect on prices, offsetting some of the anticipated loss of Russian exports. In recent days, the premiums for Middle East benchmarks Dubai, Oman and Murban crude have fallen to a third of their early March peak. North Sea's Brent and Forties are down 80% to 100% from when the United States banned Russian oil imports after the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. U.S. grades like Mars sour are weakening as the U.S. reserve releases more medium heavy sour crude into the market. The International Energy Agency has warned that the world may lose 3 million barrels per day of Russian crude and oil products starting in April. Russia exports between 4 and 5 million bpd, making it the second-largest crude exporter behind Saudi Arabia. To cover that loss, the United States announced its largest-ever release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at 1 million bpd for six months from May, or about 180 million barrels, the third such release in six months. Other IEA members agreed on Friday to release oil following a March 1 release. "Refineries are cautious and shopping around to the last minute; SPR certainly makes the market a bit less strained over the next six months and, of course, there are worries of demand destruction," a senior European trader said. West African crude offers slipped again on Tuesday as Asian buyers had largely filled their requirements for the trading cycle and European buyers held off as supply overhangs lingered, traders said. Supplies from top exporter Nigeria were piling up, with an overhang of April and May-loading crude reaching at least 40 cargoes, they said. Oil for April loading from Africa’s No. 2 oil exporter Angola has yet to sell out along with at least 10 cargoes for May, the slowest sales in years, due to poor demand from top buyer China, traders said. China recently extended a lockdown in Shanghai due to coronavirus infections. India has turned to cheap Russian Urals crude, reducing its demand for supplies from the Middle East and Africa, they said. "It's unclear if we are really facing tight supplies because Russian barrels are still flowing," The U.S. SPR release is expected to pump more medium sour crude into the market, weighing on spot Mars crude, traders said. Mars Sour is trading at a $3.05-per-barrel discount to U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, from a $1.25-per-barrel premium hit in late February. Rising freight costs, however, are making U.S. exports less attractive, traders said. Easing crude prices could encourage refiners to increase output to meet peak summer demand at a time when global diesel inventories are at their lowest levels in more than a decade.
WTI, Brent Advance as EU Targets Russia With New Sanctions-- Oil futures extended gains into early trade Tuesday, with the U.S. and international crude benchmarks adding to Monday's gains after some European leaders pushed for a discussion on the possibility of extending sanctions to Russia's oil and coal sectors in response to egregious atrocities witnessed against Ukraine's civilian population in the now liberated areas surrounding the capital city of Kyiv. French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday there is "clear evidence of war crimes" in Bucha that demand new punitive measures, adding that "I'm in favor of a new round of sanctions and in particular on coal and gasoline." Germany, however, remains a key opponent of stricter measures, with about half of Germany's imports of gas and hard coal, and about one-third of its oil imports originating in Russia. In total, Germany depends on Russia for about one-third of its total energy consumption. . The United States and United Kingdom have already moved to ban Russian oil and mounting civilian casualties in Ukraine is piling pressure on governments to take further steps against Russia. Further supporting the oil complex, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries continued to struggle to meet their production quota in March, with the producer group managing to raise output by just 90,000 bpd, according to surveys from Reuters and Bloomberg. The alliance agreed to increase production by 400,000 bpd last month -- a rolling monthly target that has been consistently missed since the second half of 2021. Outages in some African members partly offset increases by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $0.63 to $103.89 bbl, and the ICE June Brent contract gained $0.56 to $108.09 bbl. NYMEX May ULSD futures declined 2.45 cents to $3.5235 gallon, and the May RBOB contract jumped 2.19 cents to $3.2200 gallon.
Oil eases on COVID-19 pandemic worries, strong US dollar (Reuters) – Oil prices eased in volatile trade on Tuesday, pressured by a rising U.S. dollar and growing worries that new coronavirus cases could slow demand but losses were limited by supply concerns due to sanctions on Russia for alleged war crimes. Early in the session, prices rose over $2 a barrel after Japan’s Industry Minister said the International Energy Agency (IEA) was still discussing a coordinated release of oil reserves that many traders thought was a done deal. After that, prices traded either side of unchanged for most of the day. read more Demand worries mounted after authorities in top oil importer China extended a lockdown in Shanghai to cover all of the financial center’s 26 million people. read more“Early dollar weakness today gradually gave way to strength in providing additional impetus behind today’s oil price swing back to the downside,”Brent futures fell 89 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $106.64 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.32, or 1.3% to settle at $101.96.Oil prices could gain support after settlement if analysts’ forecasts are correct and U.S. crude inventories declined by around 2.1 million barrels last week. ,The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, will issue its inventory report at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT). On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will issue the official report at 10:30 a.m. EDT.The dollar (.DXY) strengthened a fourth day in a row to its highest since May 2020 against a basket of other currencies. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. read more The United States and the European Union (EU) proposed sweeping new sanctions against Russia over civilian killings in Ukraine, including an EU ban on coal imports. read more read more. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the ban on coal will be followed by oil and then gas.Moscow, which calls its action in Ukraine a “special operation,” said Western allegations of war crimes in the Ukrainian town of Bucha were a “monstrous forgery” aimed at denigrating the Russian army. read more To calm oil prices, U.S.-allied countries agreed last week to a coordinated oil release from strategic reserves for the second time in a month. read moreMizuho executive director of energy futures Robert Yawger said the U.S. plan to release 180 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve has narrowed the spread between current and later-dated crude futures. read moreYawger noted WTI futures were only trading in “super backwardation” with each month at least $1 a barrel below the prior month through October 2022. A month ago, he said the curve was in super-backwardation through November 2023.
WTI Turns Lower After Crude Stocks Unexpectedly Increased - Oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange turned lower in late morning trade Wednesday, with the front-month West Texas Intermediate falling below $100 barrel (bbl) after government data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed an unexpected build in U.S. commercial oil inventories along with a 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in domestic crude production for the week ended April 1, while a larger-than-expected drawdown in commercial gasoline inventories offset losses for the RBOB contract. Near 11:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate May futures plummeted $2.84 to $99.09 bbl, and the international crude benchmark Brent June contract declined $2.70 to $104 bbl. NYMEX RBOB May futures weakened 5.44 cents to $3.1093 gallon, and the front-month ULSD futures fell 7.01 cents to $3.4033 gallon. EIA data released at midmorning show commercial crude stockpiles climbed 2.4 million bbl from the previous week to 412.4 bbl and are now about 14% below the five-year average. The draw was bullish against expectations of a 1.6 million bbl decrease and countered estimates of a 1.080 million bbl increase by the American Petroleum Institute in data released late Tuesday afternoon. Oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI contract rose by 1.7 million bbl from the previous week to 25.9 million bbl, EIA said in its weekly report. Domestic refiners once again increased run rates, up 0.4% from the previous week to 92.5% compared with analyst estimates for a 0.3% increase. Oil producers, meanwhile, increased output by 100,000 bpd from the previous week to 11.7 million bpd. In the gasoline complex, commercial inventories unexpectedly fell by 2 million bbl to 236.8 million bbl compared with analyst expectations for inventories to have decreased by 200,000 bbl from the previous week. After declining for three consecutive weeks, demand for motor gasoline in the United States gained 63,000 bpd from a three-month low 8.562 million bpd. Distillate stocks rose 771,000 bbl from the previous week to 114.3 million bbl, and are now about 15% below the five-year average, EIA said. Analysts expected distillates inventories would fall by 200,000 bbl. Demand for distillate fuels continued lower in the reviewed week, falling by 157,000 bpd last week to a 2-1/2 month low 3.647 million bpd. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million bpd, up 5.5% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million bpd, down 0.3% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million bpd over the past four weeks, up by 1.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 28.9% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Oil Tumbles 5% on Global Reserves Release; U.S. Crude Breaks Below $97-- Will big reserve releases bring crude prices down in a severely undersupplied market? No, say oil longs, and they’re right if the market remains in deficit over the longer term. But in the short term, the actions of the Biden administration and other governments have started hurting this year’s energy rally. Crude prices tumbled for a second day in a row after the Paris-based International Energy Agency, or IEA, said it will release 120 million barrels from the reserves of its members into the open market to bridge a global supply shortage. “Those long oil can keep denying that these reserves releases don’t matter to the longer-term price in this market. Maybe. But on a daily basis, they are causing havoc to the market’s volatility,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge Again Capital. London-traded Brent, the global oil benchmark, settled down $5.57, or 5.3%, at $101.07 per barrel. Its low for the session was $100.68. Brent fell 13% last week for its biggest weekly decline since April 2020 after finishing the first quarter up 39%, demonstrating the recent volatility in oil. New York-traded U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, settled down $5.73, or 5.6%, at $96.23, after an intraday low of $95.86. The IEA announcement came after the Biden administration said last week it will release 180 million barrels of its own from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next six months, averaging one million barrels per day. According to the IEA on Wednesday, half of the 120 million barrels from its release will come from the United States. Sources familiar with the situation said the 60 million barrels of the U.S. share were already included in the 180 million barrels release cited by the Biden administration last week. That effectively meant that a new 60 million barrels would come from non-U.S. members of the IEA. Cumulatively, some 240 million barrels would be landing on the open market for oil over the next six months, or 1.33 million barrels per day. That would be more than triple the monthly increments of 400,000 barrels per day that global oil producers under the Saudi-controlled and Russian-steered OPEC+ alliance have been doing. OPEC+ is keeping at least four million barrels of regular daily supply needed by consumers off the market to ensure that crude prices stay at above or around $100 per barrel, which has been the norm since the U.S. and EU sanctions imposed on Russia for its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Separately, the delivery of some 3.0 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports is being delayed by sanctions, with some being denied altogether.
Crude oil futures rise on fresh buying after IEA news sparks overnight plunge -Crude oil futures were higher in mid-morning Asian trade April 7 as investors returned to buy the dips after news of IEA members agreeing to a 120 million barrels oil reserve release sent oil prices tumbling overnight. At 10:15 am Singapore time (0215 GMT), the ICE June Brent futures contract was up $1.61/b (1.59%) from the previous close at $102.68/b, while the NYMEX May light sweet crude contract rose $1.43/b (1.49%) to $97.66/b. IEA member countries agreed to release 120 million barrels of oil from storage, which includes 60 million barrels already pledged from the US, as part of its overall draw from its strategic petroleum reserve, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol tweeted April 6. This comes after the US pledged to tap 180 million barrels of oil last week, effectively releasing 1 million b/d for six months from May, in a bid to alleviate market concerns over potential shortages from a drop in Russian oil exports. The reports sent ICE Brent and NYMEX crashing by more than 5% on the day, effectively erasing all of its gains for the week. "In addition to the enormous global reserves release, demand destruction and recession are currently the only price-lowering mechanism in a world devoid of inventory buffers," Financial markets have been on shaky ground this week as US Federal Reserve officials called for an aggressive tightening of monetary policy in the months ahead to waylay rising inflation. This has stirred fears of a hard landing that could send the economy into recession. The latest minutes of the Federal Reserve April 6 showed several Fed officials supporting raising interest rates by half a percentage point at least once in the future, while also reducing its swollen balance sheet by $95 billion per month. Putting further pressure on prices, US crude oil stocks rose 2.42 million barrels in the week ended April 1 to 412.37 million barrels, as US crude output climbed 100,000 b/d to 11.8 million b/d, the highest since December 2021, US Energy Information Administration data showed April 6. Total US gasoline stocks meanwhile, fell 2.04 million barrels to 236.79 million while distillate stocks edged 770,000 barrels higher to 114.3 million barrels, the EIA said.
Oil Futures Soften as US Dollar Hits 2-Year High, Emergency Oil Stocks Release News - Oil futures nearest delivery settled Thursday's session with modest losses, aside from a larger 2.3% decline by the ULSD contract. Futures were pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar following hawkish minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's March meeting released Wednesday and details announced Thursday by the International Energy Agency of a planned coordinated release of 120 million barrels (bbl) from emergency oil stocks in response to supply disruptions stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. On the session, NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures slipped $0.20 to settle a tad above $96 per bbl, and the ICE June Brent contract declined $0.49 to $100.58 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB fell 0.64 cent to $3.0398 per gallon, and NYMEX ULSD dropped 7.74 cents to $3.2678 per gallon. The U.S. dollar continued higher for the sixth straight session Thursday, spurred Thursday by revelations Fed officials are aiming to target rising inflation through aggressive monetary tightening, FOMC minutes from the March 15-16 meeting detail. Greenback made a new cycle high Thursday at 99.850 against a basket of foreign currencies in index trading. Minutes show most Fed officials would have preferred to raise the federal funds rate by 50 basis points last month instead of the 25-point hike if not for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The 25-point increase in March was the first rate hike since 2018. On Thursday, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the central bank is "behind the curve" in lifting interest rates to fight inflation but is making progress towards a corrective course. "Even if you're very generous to the Fed in interpreting what the inflation rate really is today ... you'd have to raise the policy rate a lot." U.S. consumer price index in February came at its highest in 40 years at 7.9%, with prices for gasoline, shelter and food behind the increases. Further weighing on the oil complex, IEA on Thursday confirmed the release of 120 million bbl over a six-month period, making it the largest release in their IEA history. The unanimous agreement among IEA member countries on April 1 for a second collective action this year came in response to the significant strains in oil markets resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, IEA wrote. The two IEA collective actions this year of 62.7 million bbl, agreed upon on March 1, and the latest 120 million bbl amount to 9% of total emergency reserves. According to IEA estimates, Russian oil production could fall by as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd) this month as a result of the reluctance by Western banks and traders to deal with Russian energy exports. Although the combined SPR release is unprecedented in its scale and scope, analysts are skeptical that it would have a long-term "cooling effect" on prices.
Oil settles lower on doubts about Russia oil sanctions -Oil settled lower on Thursday, adding to weekly losses on uncertainty that the euro zone will be able to effectively sanction Russian energy exports and after consuming nations announced a huge release of oil from emergency reserves. Prices were also pressured by fears that lockdowns in China due to a new wave of COVID-19 would slow the recover in oil demand. Brent crude futures fell 49 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $100.58 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 20 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $96.03 a barrel. The previous session, both benchmarks plunged more than 5% to their lowest closing levels since March 16. The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, told a NATO meeting that new EU measures, including a ban on Russian coal, could be passed on Thursday or Friday and the bloc would discuss an oil embargo next. However, the coal ban would take full effect from mid-August, a month later than initially planned. India has continued purchases of discounted Russian crude oil imports, pushing out what analysts had predicted would be a loss of 2-3 million barrels per day of Russian oil from the global market. "While such a loss is still possible once contracts roll off and India's required refinery needs or storage is satisfied, such a development could still be weeks if not a couple of months away," s In China, multiple outbreaks of the virus have prompted widespread lockdowns in Shanghai, the most populous city. On Wednesday, International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries agreed to release 60 million barrels on top of a 180 million-barrel release announced by the United States last week to help drive down fuel prices. Japan will release 15 million barrels of oil from state and private reserves, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported. "Although this is the biggest release since the stockpile was created in 1980, it will fail to ultimately change the fundamentals in the oil market," ANZ bank said of the U.S. release Other analysts saw the stocks release as a big relief amid concerns over market tightness. .
Oil Falls 4% Week Over Week as Traders Assess Strategic Oil Reserve Releases - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange gained ground Friday afternoon, although all petroleum contracts registered losses for a second consecutive week. The moves came after announcements of planned oil releases from strategic reserves by the United States and International Energy Agency countries eased near-term concerns over supply availability tied to sanctions on Russian crude exports. China's largest refiners -- Sinopic, PetroChina and CNOOC, among others -- are staying on the sidelines as they avoid buying Russian cargoes for May loadings, according to wire service reports, adding pressure on Russia's energy complex reeling from Western sanctions. While state-owned refiners refrain from purchasing new Russian cargoes, independent "teapot" refineries in China continue to scoop up the discounted cargoes amid limited exposure to international markets. Russia's flagship Urals crude is being offered at a historic discount of $35 bbl against the international benchmark Brent contract, effectively bringing the price to its pre-war levels. India, another large buyer of Russian oil, may soon face tougher pressure from the international community to sever ties with Russia after the Biden administration warned New Delhi not to align itself too closely with Moscow. Traders are closely monitoring the political response in the West and Asia to the conflict in Ukraine that is quickly descending deeper into a bloodbath. On Friday, the European Union announced a fifth package of Russian sanctions that includes a phased-out ban on imports of Russian coal with EU leaders warning that the next step would be oil and gas. It is increasingly clear Russia's energy industry will suffer a heavy blow from Western sanctions that have already shaved off between 4% and 5% from Russian oil production, according to Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, meaning the loss of roughly 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of output. IEA estimates Russian crude and petroleum products exports would plummet between 2.5 million and 3 million bpd this month from 7.8 million bpd in February. Further weighing on the complex this week is more evidence of China's economic slowdown after authorities in the nation's largest city, Shanghai, extended a citywide lockdown into the end of April as COVID-19 cases there reset record highs. The World Bank and some investment banks have recently warned the economic damage caused by China's zero-COVID policy is growing, with China the world's second-largest economy. On the session, NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures gained $2.23 to $98.26 per bbl, and the ICE June Brent contract rallied to $102.78 per bbl. NYMEX RBOB advanced 9.18 cents to $3.1316 per gallon, and NYMEX ULSD rallied 4.98 cents to $3.3176 per gallon.
Georgia’s South Ossetia plans to take steps to join Russia The separatist leader of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia says the Moscow-backed territory is planning to take steps in the near future to become part of Russia.Russia recognised South Ossetia as an independent state in 2008 after fighting a short war with Georgia. It has provided the separatist region with extensive financial support, offered Russian citizenship to its population and stationed thousands of Russian troops there. “I believe that unification with Russia is our strategic goal, our path, the aspiration of the people,” Anatoly Bibilov, the separatist leader of South Ossetia, was quoted as saying by the press service of the United Russia party. “We will take the relevant legislative steps shortly. The republic of South Ossetia will be part of its historical homeland – Russia.” Bibilov’s spokeswoman Dina Gassiyeva on Thursday told Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency that the region planned to hold a referendum and the decision was “linked with the window of opportunity that opened in the current situation”, referring to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Georgia’s reaction Georgian Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani said on Thursday “it is unacceptable to speak of any referendums while the territory is occupied by Russia”. “Such a referendum will have no legal force,” he told journalists. “The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that the Georgian region is occupied by Russia.”
White House warns of potential Russian blitz on eastern Ukraine The White House believes Russia is repositioning its troops in Ukraine with the intent of focusing its attacks on the eastern parts of the country after its full-scale invasion has stalled after more than one month. National security adviser Jake Sullivan laid out the Biden administration’s expectations for how Russia will proceed in the coming days and weeks, outlining a scenario where Russia focuses its attacks on the Donbas region in order to win military victories the Kremlin can use to create a narrative of success. “At this juncture we believe that Russia is revising its war aims,” Sullivan said at a press briefing. “Russia is repositioning its forces to concentrate its offensive operations in eastern and parts of southern Ukraine rather than target most of the territory.” Biden administration officials believe Russia will focus on defeating Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, two areas of the Donbas region where pro-Russian separatists have operated for years. “Russia could then use any tactical successes it achieves to propagate a narrative of progress and mask or discount or downplay prior military failures,” Sullivan said.
Imperialist powers escalate Ukraine war over allegations of Russian war crimes in Bucha -- This weekend, a major campaign over alleged war crimes by Russian troops in Bucha, a city of about 28,500 inhabitants northwest of Kiev, swept the Western press. The campaign marks a significant escalation of the war in Ukraine and comes right after Russia reported that two Ukrainian helicopters had entered Russian territory and bombed an oil depot in Belogorod on Friday. The campaign is based on allegations by the Ukrainian authorities and army that Russian troops, while being in control of Bucha, tortured and murdered large numbers of civilians, with figures cited in press articles ranging widely, from a few dozen to over 400. Several bodies were reportedly found in ditches. Human Rights Watch has published a report, based on interviews with eyewitnesses in Bucha and other towns, that described rape and forms of torture, and called for an investigation into these as “war crimes” by Russian troops. The Kremlin has denounced the claims of atrocities against civilians as a “provocation by Ukrainian radicals” and has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on Monday. The Russian Foreign Ministry has pointed out that Russian troops had withdrawn from Bucha by Wednesday, March 30, one day after Russia had promised at peace negotiations that it would dramatically reduce its forces near Kiev. The Kremlin also noted that a video message by Bucha’s mayor from March 31 makes no reference to any atrocities and that the images and reports only started circulating after Ukrainian troops and television had entered the town on Saturday, April 2. The video message by Anatoly Fedoruk, indeed, shows the mayor exalted, proclaiming that all “Russian orcs”, as he called the Russian troops, had left the town, without any mention of atrocities or war crimes having been committed. While the facts of what happened in Bucha and who perpetrated what crimes remain murky, two things are clear: First, the campaign brings the cynical hypocrisy of the imperialist powers over war crimes to a new level; and, second, it is used to significantly escalate the war. The same imperialist powers that are now crying “shock” and “horror” at unproven allegations over killings by the Russian army have reduced large parts of the Middle East and North Africa to ruins. US wars since 2001 alone have claimed, according to conservative estimates, between 3 and 4 million civilian casualties. In fact, the rhetoric of the press campaign over Bucha and the claims of a “genocide” and “atrocities” bear the hallmark of the imperialist propaganda that has preceded the launching of or the escalation of countless wars in defense of “human rights” since 1991, including in Yugoslavia, the Middle East and North Africa. It is impossible to provide anything close to an exhaustive list of the war crimes that have been perpetrated by the US, as well as by British, Australian, French and German imperialism in the past decades. Future historians will have to fill volumes to document and analyze the crimes committed. A few recent cases, however, should be recalled: The US siege of Mosul, Iraq, in 2014, that claimed an estimated 40,000 lives. The destruction of Raqqa, Syria, in 2017, by US forces, with over 1,600 civilian casualties.
Kremlin spokesman admits ‘we have significant losses of troops,’ calls it ‘a huge tragedy’ -Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, acknowledged in an interview published on Thursday that Russia had sustained “significant losses of troops” and called it a “huge tragedy.”The remarks, which were made to Sky News, are a rare acknowledgement from Moscow of the difficulties Russia has confronted in its invasion of Ukraine.Russia has not provided many updates regarding its troops’ casualties; previous figures reported by Moscow have been notably lower than estimates from Ukraine and NATO.The interview comes as Russian troops have left the Ukrainian regions of Chernihiv and Kyiv, unable to quickly seize the capital of Ukraine as initially hoped.Peskov claimed that Russia was acting in “goodwill” by withdrawing from both areas, telling Sky News, “It was a goodwill act to lift tension from those regions and show Russia is really ready to create comfortable conditions to continue negotiations.”U.S. officials have expressed skepticism about Moscow pulling back its troops in those areas, however, with Pentagon press secretary John Kirby saying last week, “We believe this is a repositioning, not a real withdrawal.”Peskov also denied the accusations of Russian atrocities in Bucha, Ukraine, where photos and videos shared by Ukrainian officials have shown bodies strewn in the streets with their hands tied behind their backs. He told Sky News the situation in the Ukrainian city is a “well-staged insinuation, nothing else.”
Russian troops were killed after being given poisoned food and alcohol by Ukrainian civilians, officials say -Some Russian troops were killed and many more were injured after being given poisoned food and alcohol by civilians in the Kharkiv Region, Ukrainian officials said on Saturday. The soldiers were from the 3rd Russian motor rifle division, according to a Facebook post from Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence. The post said two Russian troops were killed and 28 were in intensive care after being given poisoned cakes in the city of Izium. Another 500 Russian troops were taken to hospitals due to heavy alcohol poisoning, according to the post. Officials said the Russian government is writing off these cases as "non-combat losses."
Over 600 Companies Have Withdrawn from Russia—But Some Remain - Since the invasion of Ukraine began, we have been tracking the responses of 800 companies. Over 600 companies have announced they are voluntarily curtailing operations in Russia to some degree beyond what is required by international sanctions — but some companies have continued to operate in Russia undeterred. Originally a simple "withdraw" vs. "remain" list, our list of companies now consists of five categories - graded on a school-style letter grade scale of A-F for the completeness of withdrawal. The list below is updated continuously by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and his team of experts, research fellows, and students at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute to reflect new announcements from companies in as close to real time as possible. Our list has already garnered extensive coverage for its role in helping catalyze the mass corporate exodus from Russia. When this list was first published the week of February 28, only several dozen companies had announced their departure.Hundreds of companies have withdrawn in the days since, and we are humbled that our list helped galvanize millions around the world to raise awareness and take action.Although we are pleased that our list has been widely circulated across company boardrooms, government officials, and media outlets as the most authoritative and comprehensive record of this powerful, historic movement, we are most inspired by the thousands of messages we have received from readers across the globe, especially those from Ukraine, and we continue to welcome your tips, insights, and feedback atjeffrey.sonnenfeld.celi@yale.edu. For a sortable, detailed version of the list below, please visit our newly-launched enhanced database where you can filter companies by letter grade, country, sector, and much more. This database replaces the detailed excel spreadsheet we previously published, which is now archived as of April 7th and no longer updated. Click here to read the new commentary from Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian in The New York Times from April 7th explaining why our list matters - now more than ever.
Russia’s War with Ukraine: Five Reasons Why Many African Countries Choose to Be ‘Neutral’ - In early March the United Nation’s General Assembly voted on a resolution demanding Russia immediately stop its military operations in Ukraine.Out of 193 member states, 141 voted in support of the resolution, five voted against, 35 abstained and 12 didn’t vote at all. Of the 54 African member states, Eritrea voted against the resolution, 16 African countries including South Africa abstained, while nine other countries did not vote at all.In all about half (26) of the 54 member states in Africa chose the path of neutrality in some form.So why did African countries not vote overwhelmingly to support the resolution?I believe that the decision of several African countries to stay neutral and avoid condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine was made on issues relating directly to the conflict as well as broader security, economic and political considerations.There are five key reasons: these include scepticism towards the North Atlantic Treat Alliance (NATO), and its motives; growing reliance among some countries on Moscow for military support past decade; growing dependence on wheat and fertiliser imports; and a sense that this is a return of the Cold War.African countries have based their decisions on strategic calculations on how the conflict will affect them rather than on the humanitarian catastrophe arising from the conflict. This is in contrast to the European Union which has been able to converge and take a unanimous stance on the conflict.
Russia-Ukraine War Hits Household Budget in India Vegetable, Oil, Milk Prices on Rise - Commodity prices in India, especially fuel, have surged in recent weeks as global energy costs have risen due to supply concerns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and rising demand following the COVID-19 outbreak. In the last two weeks, petrol prices in Delhi have risen by Rs 8.40, while CNG rates have risen by around Rs 6.5 per kilogram after seven rises. After Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a special military operation in Ukraine's Donbas area on February 24, Brent crude oil prices hit USD 100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. In the days after, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures soared to a high of USD 130.50 a barrel, the highest since July 2008, before falling back. Brent also reached a new high of USD 139.13, matching its previous high in July 2008. Brent crude futures declined USD 1.01, or 1%, to USD 103.38 a barrel by 2223 GMT on Monday. WTI crude futures dropped 84 cents, or 0.9%, to USD 98.43 a barrel. The rise in global crude oil prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had an influence on India's household budget, with recent increases in fuel and diesel costs, as well as more expensive vegetables and power. In the last two weeks, petrol prices in Delhi have risen by Rs 8.40, while CNG rates have risen by around Rs 6.5 per kilogram after seven rises. Aside from that, greater transportation expenses have pushed up the pricing of numerous commodities due to higher diesel rates, which have risen to Rs 95.07 per liter. Lemon prices in Rajkot, Gujarat, have recently risen to Rs 200 per kg. "The price of a kilogram of lemon is approaching Rs 200." Previously, it was roughly Rs 50-60 per kg. This has an impact on our 'kitchen budget.' "I don't know when the costs would go down," a customer at a market told news agency ANI. Aside from that, milk costs have also risen in recent weeks. Due to higher input costs, companies including Amul, Parag, and Verka upped their milk prices by Rs 2 last month. According to Jayen Mehta, chief operating officer of Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF), a marketer of Amul milk and milk products, "this price hike is being done due to growth in the cost of energy, packaging, logistics, and calf feeding costs." Cumin, coriander, and chili prices have also risen by 40-60% in recent days, according to a Krishi Jagran study. According to online travel agencies, higher global prices have increased the cost of flight travel by nearly 30% in the last month.
India: Pursuing its National Interest in the Multipolar World - by Jerri-Lynn Scofield - Last week saw a flurry of visits to India by Russian, U.S., and British diplomats, each vying to influence India’s policy on Russian sanctions. Britain sent foreign secretary Liz Truss, the U.S. deputy national security advisor Daleep Singh, and Russia, foreign secretary Sergey Lavrov.The U.S. demonstrated that it seems to have long since forgotten how to practice diplomacy. Or perhaps Singh never really learned in the first instance According to Firstpost, US deputy NSA Daleep Singh’s threats of ‘consequences’ point to a fissure within Joe Biden administration on India. Money quote:Singh may be a whiz kid, but he is clearly a bad diplomat. His brief may have been to apprise India of the risks involved in carrying on energy trade with Russia and the moral opprobrium involved in such a move but his derogatory punchlines will define this trip. Ouch. More from Firstpost:It has been interesting to watch the trip undertaken by US deputy national security advisor Daleep Singh to India. Singh, the great grand-nephew of Dalip Singh Saund, the first Asian-American elected to the US Congress, came bearing a fearsome reputation as Joe Biden’s marksman who apparently single-handedly pierced Russia’s ‘sanctions-proof’ economy. Prior to his role as the deputy NSA for international economics and deputy director for the National Economic Council in the Biden administration, a job that gives him command over the vast policymaking spheres of supply chain resilience to economic statecraft and makes him one of the most powerful Indian-Americans in the US, Singh had a meaty position in the treasury department of the Barack Obama administration.We were told that nobody messes with Singh and that he’s got the smarts and the intellect to waltz through the complexities of the international financial system. That Singh was being sent to India triggered a bit of cheerleading from American commentators bent on teaching impertinent India a lesson for its stance on Ukraine.On Thursday, hours before Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov’s arrival, Singh told reporters in India that the US won’t like to see a “rapid acceleration of India’s imports from Russia as it relates to energy or any other any other exports that are currently being prohibited by the US or by other aspects of the international sanctions regime”. He warned that there will be “consequences” for countries, including India, “that actively attempt to circumvent or backfill the sanctions”, and also said that “we are very keen for all countries, especially our allies and partners, not to create mechanisms that prop up the ruble, and those that attempt to undermine the dollar-based financial system.”These naked, public threats raised quite a few eyebrows. Syed Akbaruddin, former Indian envoy to the UN, wrote on Twitter that “This is not the language of diplomacy… This is the language of coercion… Somebody tell this young man that punitive unilateral economic measures are a breach of customary international law…” India’s minister for external affairs Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, was having none of this Western bullying and said so, publicly n the presence of Truss at the India-UK Strategic Futures Forum, as reported in The Guardian, India defends buying discounted Russian oil despite appeal by Truss:
Over 20,000 Students Who Survived Russia-Ukraine War Face A New Tug Of War In India. - Over 20,000 medical students, who fled strife-torn Ukraine, are yet to overcome their mental agony of surviving bomb explosions and missile attacks. However, since they have arrived in India, they have been bombarded with fake and dubious career offers.Despite being enrolled in various educational institutions for undergraduate medical education in Ukraine, thousands of students had to leave their studies midway and return to India following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With the war not seemingly nearing an end any time soon, thousands of such Ukraine-returned students are now worried about their future and the hard-earned money that their parents have spent on their education. And back home, they are facing a new type of problem.Touts and agents from substandard as well as unrecognised institutions have started preying on these evacuated students. Aware of the vulnerable status of the young students and their families, many have reportedly been trying to lure these students with fraud offers to exploit the situation.Such offers are being circulated on WhatsApp groups of students, enticing them to join medical colleges in India as well as in other countries such as Poland, Hungary, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan among others. The offers claim that the credit score of the students can be transferred to other countries where they can complete their remaining education paying the remaining fee.A letter being circulated among students by a self-professed "counsellor" says, “Due to the present situation, the government of Hungary offers you the possibility to stay in Hungary and continue your studies here.”The letter even claims that students’ credit will be accepted through an international exchange programme and the cost of their studies “will not be higher than (their) Ukrainian university because any difference will be covered by the government of Hungary".Similarly, an advertisement published in a newspaper is being circulated in students’ groups in which a well-known private university is claiming to give them admission for medical courses. The university claims that “it is exempted from the regulatory control of any council including National Medical Commission.”A second-year student, who returned from Ukraine last month, said, “We have been receiving calls and messages from many education counsellors who tell us that there is no scope for any further study in Ukraine as the war will go on for very long. They are trying to lure us to take offers in other countries.”
Shanghai under citywide lockdown as COVID-19 cases continue to climb - “It is an arduous task and huge challenge to combat the Omicron variant while maintaining the normal operation of core functions in a megacity with a population of 25 million,” Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said over the weekend as she toured Shanghai amid its lockdowns. New cases have been climbing rapidly, necessitating harsh measures to bring the outbreak under swift control. The outbreak in Shanghai is primarily a byproduct of local authorities having resisted employing more stringent measures earlier, allowing the situation to spiral to its current state. The visit by Sun, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, served to assure the population that there would be “unswerving adherence to the dynamic Zero-COVID approach and mobilizing COVID-19 testing capacity, medical personnel, and COVID-19 prevention supplies to support Shanghai in the fight against the epidemic.” It was also intended to quell concerns raised in Chinese social media, which had been gaining international interest about the death of a nurse suffering from an asthma exacerbation who was denied entry into a hospital. Additional concerns being raised are that the lockdowns were being extended beyond what authorities had promised and concerns over access to food and supplies. However, consistent with President Xi Jinping’s previous concerns over minimizing disruptions to the economic infrastructure, Sun stressed that “key industries and institutions” would operate under a “strict closed-loop management” that could ensure “the normal operation of core functions and the stability of supply and industrial chains.” A concept borrowed from the Tokyo Summer Olympics in 2021 and applied to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics meant that some large-scale manufacturers with the ability to house workers in their compounds and act quickly ahead of lockdown orders could continue running their operations. Reuter reported last week that “GM, which said [last] Monday that its Shanghai joint venture was producing normally, declined to comment on the arrangements at its factory. A spokesperson said the company and its joint ventures had developed and were executing contingency plans with their suppliers to mitigate uncertainty related to COVID-19. SAIC [Chinese state-owned automaker in joint venture with GM] did not have immediate comment.” Shanghai’s two-phased lockdown was modified into a full-scale lockdown late Thursday night as new cases of COVID-19 were discovered, underscoring the silent uncontrolled community spread that had been underway for several weeks.
German federal and state governments end coronavirus protection measures --The last coronavirus protective measures expired across Germany over the weekend, even as around 300 people are dying every day from COVID-19 with more than 200,000 infections. The federal and state governments are taking their policy of deliberate mass infection to extremes in the interests of big business. They are making it clear there can be no restrictions whatsoever that may limit profit maximisation—even if this costs hundreds of lives every day. On March 18, the Bundestag (federal parliament) passed a new Infection Protection Act that reduces the pandemic measures to so-called “basic protections” consisting of mandatory mask wearing and testing in a few places. The federal states were allowed to adopt a two-week transitional rule consisting of mandatory mask wearing, which most states did, with rules for accessing certain public venues for 2G individuals (those recovered or fully vaccinated) and 3G (those recovered, fully vaccinated or with a negative test). This expired on April 2.From now on, masks will only need to be worn in nursing homes, hospitals and local and long-distance public transport. Masks are not compulsory in shops, nurseries or schools. In Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, state Education Minister Yvonne Gebauer (Liberal Democratic Party, FDP), explicitly instructed schools to no longer make masks compulsory. With an incidence rate of over 2,000 per 100,000 in some schools, this is tantamount to a policy of deliberate infection.The new Infection Protection Act provides for the possibility of stricter measures in so-called “hotspot areas,” but even these are limited to mandatory FFP2 masks in more areas, a 1.5-metre social distancing rule indoors and 3G and 2G regulations. These are all completely inadequate measures, as the current wave of infections shows.Moreover, the decision as to when a region is considered a hotspot lies in the hands of the state parliaments, and they are signaling their refusal to do so. Up to now, only two federal states, Hamburg and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, have declared that they will resort to the hotspot regulation. Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Berlin, Brandenburg, Lower Saxony, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein have explicitly ruled this out.
A German man is suspected of getting more than 87 COVID-19 shots so he could sell fake vaccination certificates A man is accused of receiving at least 87 COVID-19 vaccine doses in order to use the real batch numbers on fake certificates he could sell to anti-vaxxers, German media have reported.By taking the shots, the man in his sixties got real vaccine batch numbers that could be put on fake vaccine certificates, per the reports.According to Freie Presse, the man went to vaccine centers in eastern Germany and was vaccinated up to three times a day, receiving 87 vaccines in the state of Saxony alone.The man, whom the paper did not name for privacy reasons, is now under investigation for "issuing vaccination cards without authorization and document forgery" but not detained, the AP reported.
Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen surges in French presidential polls --Over the past week, neo-fascist French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has been rising rapidly in the polls, while incumbent Emmanuel Macron has been falling rapidly. Le Pen’s vote stands at around 21 percent, up 2 to 4 points depending on the polls, while Macron’s fell by 4 points to 27 percent. It is now clear that the election of a neo-fascist French president is a real possibility, although Unsubmissive France (LFI) candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has also risen in the polls, from 11 to 15.5 percent. According to the latest Elabe poll, Le Pen would win 47.5 percent of the vote if placed against Macron in the second round. In previous polls, she was credited with 45 percent of the vote in a second round match-up against Macron. The result of these polls has triggered worried speculation in ruling circles, starting with Macron himself. The head of state absurdly insisted that he bore no responsibility for the rise of the far right in France. “I have never trivialised the National Front,” Macron said at a campaign stop in Fouras, referring to the former name of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party. Asked afterwards about a possible neo-fascist election victory, he refused to comment on “something that does not exist.” Macron was contradicted by his own former prime minister, Edouard Philippe. “Of course, Marine Le Pen can win,” Philippe told Le Parisien. He continued, “I fear a high abstention, which is never a sign of good democratic health.” Philippe added that the presidential campaign of far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour, who this week caused a scandal by calling for the “extermination of scum” in France, is helping Marine Le Pen. Philippe said, “I also note that the very aggressive nature of Eric Zemmour, the often outrageous nature of his remarks, seem to soften her by comparison.” However, he added, “If she won, things would, believe me, be seriously different for the country.”
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