Fed officials see grounds for soon slowing rate-hike pace -The Federal Reserve appeared closer to moderating aggressive interest rate increases after welcome news on inflation, with three officials backing a downshift even as they stressed that policy needs to stay tight. "While I believe it may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases so we can better assess how financial and economic conditions are evolving, I also believe a slower pace should not be taken to represent easier policy," Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan told a conference hosted by her bank in Houston on Thursday. Data released earlier on Thursday showed consumer prices cooling by more than expected in October, with the consumer price index rising 7.7% from a year earlier versus 8.2% the month before. "This morning's CPI data were a welcome relief, but there is still a long way to go," Logan said. Not only is inflation far above the Fed's 2% target, "but with aggregate demand continuing to outstrip supply, inflation has repeatedly come in higher than forecasters expected." News of the better-than-expected CPI report sent bond yields plummeting and saw investors harden bets that the Fed would scale back the size of its next rate increase in December to 50 basis points, with rates peaking around 4.8% next year. The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Nov. 2 for the fourth straight meeting to a 3.75% to 4% target range. It said ongoing increases will be needed as it fights the hottest inflation in 40 years. Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the decision that recent disappointing data suggest rates will ultimately need to go higher than previously expected, while indicating the central bank could moderate the size of its increases as soon as December. "Stepping down is an appropriate thing to think about," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told a separate event hosted by the European Economics & Financial Center, while cautioning that more rate increases were still coming. "Pausing is not the discussion, the discussion is stepping down," she said. Daly said that the correct level for how high the Fed ultimately needs to raise rates is uncertain — and could be above 4.5% — while making clear that she would prefer to move more cautiously to reach that destination. "I support a more gradual approach to getting to it so we can be discovering the right rate as we go," she said, noting that policymakers must be aware of the cumulative impact of their aggressive tightening campaign. Officials in September forecast rates would reach 4.6% by the end of this year and 4.8% in 2023 — implying a half-point hike in December and a final quarter-point move next year. They will update their quarterly projections next month. "In the upcoming months, in light of the cumulative tightening we have achieved, I expect we will slow the pace of our rate hikes as we approach a sufficiently restrictive stance," Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said at a separate event. "But I want to be clear: A rate hike of 50 basis points would still be significant." The Philadelphia Fed chief isn't forecasting a recession and said growth should slow to 1.5% next year. The unemployment rate will likely rise to 4.5% next year, he said, and then fall to 4% in 2024 with inflation moderating to 2.5% that year.
Inflation data raises doubts about whether Fed will 'stay the course': - Stocks and bonds had an especially bullish reaction to new data out Thursday showing that inflation continues to moderate after reaching a 40-year high over the summer.The Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 each had their best day since the 2020 pandemic lows. The 5- and 10-year Treasury Notes saw their biggest one-day drop in yields since then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke ramped up quantitative easing back in March 2009.A casual observer could be forgiven for thinking the Fed has whipped inflation. While the U.S. is far from its 2% inflation goal, inflation eased more than expected last month. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October versus expectations of a 0.6% gain, while the year-over-year measurement ticked down to 7.7% from 7.9%. Taking out food and energy, core inflation also rose in October, but less than expected. Will this be enough for Fed Chair Jay Powell to change his tune and slow the pace of interest rate hikes? Echoes of a "Powell pivot" could be heard across the Twitter-verse as stocks rocketed higher across every sector and industry. Although inflation remains stubbornly high, the better-than-feared CPI prints inspired some investors to start taking risks again.Optimism throughout 2022 have fueled outsized market moves such as these. So far, market participants have judged incorrectly, as new lows in the major indices have followed every major rally.Powell, for his part, has pledged to raise interest rates, even if it hurts parts of the economy. At his last press conference, Powell flat-out said he's more concerned with "entrenched" inflation than he is with the risks of the Fed continuing on its hawkish path — the main danger being a recession.That resolve hasn't stopped investors from hoping that the Fed will stop rate hikes sooner rather than later.Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday that bonds are pricing in a lower terminal Fed Funds rate — or the rate at which the Fed stops hiking. He also highlighted that bond volatility is "dropping like a stone" and credit spreads have tightened. These signs all nudge investors to take on more risk, at least in the short-term."With this inflation print," Peccatiello said, investors "believe less and less the Fed will stay the course."
The Fed has smashed the housing market and killed rampant speculation - and that means 'we're almost there' with inflation, former PIMCO chief economist says - The Federal Reserve has smashed the housing market and killed the rampant speculation that was pervasive during the pandemic—and that means "we're almost there" with inflation, according to former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulley.In an interview with CNBC on Friday, the former PIMCO chief economist reiterated his view that inflation had already peaked and was on the downtrend, pointing to signs of damage in the economy inflicted by the Fed's aggressive rate hikes this year.Mortgage rates have doubled and home buying activity is set to slump, meaning the housing market is "down for the count," McCulley said. Speculative bubbles in the market have also burst, he added, pointing to the recent turmoil in crypto markets set off by the collapse of FTX."The housing market is smashed, the enthusiasm for speculation in the marketplace [that] was rampant in 2021 has been removed," McCulley said. Those are signs the central bank have already tightened conditions significantly."I think we're almost there. I think we need to stop putting out the landing lights," he added, in regards to fears of rebounding inflation. Inflation clocked in at 7.7% in October's inflation report, below economists' expectations of 8% inflation. McCulley thinks prices will continue to go down "materially" into 2023, which justifies the recent boost in the stock market."The pace of going down is less important than the fact it's coming down, and the Fed has already gotten to a restrictive stance on policy," he said. "And I think you've got today what I would describe to be a righteous rally."Not all experts have agreed. Top economist Mohamed El-Erian previously stressed that while inflation was headed in the right direction, the US was already headed into a period of stagflation, which suggests the Fed can't ease up from its monetary tightening just yet. The central bank has already hiked rates by nearly 400-basis-points this year, with expectations for another 50-basis-point hike in December and to keep hiking until the policy rate reaches 4.75%-5%. McCulley added he "can't personally rationalize" increasing expectations for the terminal rate, given the inversion in the yield curve - a notorious recession warning.
Fed Urged to 'Pump the Brakes' on Rate Hikes as New Data Shows Inflation Slowing -- Price data released Thursday by the U.S. Labor Department shows that inflation eased slightly in October, bolstering calls for the Federal Reserve to stop hiking interest rates before it pushes the economy into recession and throws millions out of work.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October and 7.7% year over year—down from 8.2% year over year in September and the smallest increase since January. Core inflation, which refers to the CPI stripped of highly volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in October, a slower rate than the 0.6% jump the previous month."The Fed should pump the brakes, especially as leading economists warn continued aggressive interest rate hikes could crush millions of jobs."Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, called the new inflation report "very positive" and argued it "helps bolster the case for a pause on rate hikes," noting that prices are slowing in a range of categories—from medical services to key food items such as beef and milk."Not only did the Consumer Price Index come in slightly lower than expected, we are seeing no evidence that inflation is becoming embedded in services, as many had predicted," Baker wrote in a blog post. "We have turned the corner on most supply chain items, with rapid price declines in many areas."Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, echoed Baker's assessment, calling the numbers "very encouraging.""There's a good chance that inflation has peaked, and is now turning down," Wolfers added.The CPI data was released just over a week after the Fed enacted its fourth consecutive interest rate increase of 75 basis points, bringing the total number of hikes to six this year alone.The speed and size of rate increases have sparked growing alarm among economists, lawmakers, and organized labor that the Fed is preparing to induce a punishing recession and large-scale layoffs to bring prices down."The Fed stubbornly insists raising interest rates is the only way to drive down inflation, but we should be focused on corporate greed," Liz Zelnick, spokesperson for the watchdog group Accountable.US, said in a statement Thursday. "Highly profitable corporations have only jacked up prices more on working families while rewarding wealthy investors with billions in new handouts.""The Fed should pump the brakes, especially as leading economists warn continued aggressive interest rate hikes could crush millions of jobs," Zelnick continued. "Throughout the pandemic, the Fed has catered to demands from big banks, hedge funds, and other Wall Street special interests at the expense of average working families. If excessive interest rate hikes speed up the arrival of an otherwise avoidable recession, will the Fed take responsibility—or try to pass the buck as they keep making matters worse?"
Krugman Says the Fed Should Pause Rate Hikes, Has Done Enough --Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman sees good reasons for the Federal Reserve to consider pausing its interest-rate increases to assess the effects of its hikes on the US economy so far this year.“My view is that the Fed has probably done enough already, and that they really, really should pause and wait to see,” Krugman said Friday on “Balance of Power” with David Westin on Bloomberg Television. “If we get another good CPI report, then there’s going to be a lot of soul-searching at the Fed, saying, ‘are we really being way too hawkish?’” Krugman spoke a day after a government report showed that the consumer price index rose by less than forecast last month, fueled by declines in the price gauges of medical care services and used vehicles. Meanwhile, a separate report out Friday showed an increase in Americans’ short- and long-term inflation expectations.The Fed has embarked on the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s this year in an effort to tame decades-high inflation. The central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time last week, but is expected to moderate the pace of hiking as soon as next month following the cooler-than-expected inflation report.
Fed 'hasn't accomplished anything' on labor market, Dudley says -The Federal Reserve "hasn't accomplished anything" in loosening the U.S. labor market even after four consecutive 75-basis-point hikes, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley said.Friday's jobs report showing a 261,000 gain in payrolls and a slight uptick in unemployment in October is "not consistent with a loosening labor market," Dudley, chair of the Bretton Woods Committee and senior adviser to Bloomberg Economics, said at a conference on the future of finance in Singapore on Monday."There's a lot of work to do, and unfortunately it's gonna put a lot of pain on the rest of the world because as the Fed tightens, the dollar appreciates, [and] that puts more pressure on other emerging-market economies — especially those that have taken on a lot of dollar debt," he said. The dollar pain already has been evident as currencies across the emerging and developed world take a beating, putting pressure on central bankers to hike or intervene in markets — or both. At the same time, growth and debt risks have set many economies on a different policy course, with the U.K., Australia and Canada among those notably diverging from the Fed's path."The Fed's reaction to all this is, 'Really very sorry that we're causing all the pain for you, but we have to take care of our core problem, which is U.S. inflation — getting it back down to 2%,'" said Dudley.What Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wants is "to take enough medicine today so that inflation expectations don't become unanchored so he doesn't have to do something really, really harsh later," said the former Fed official. The U.S. central bank started "very slow off the mark" in tightening, and this was evident in the four outsize hikes it had to do, Dudley said. "We're at the very beginning of that mission" to tighten policy enough to slow down the economy and push down inflation, he said. "The Fed actually hasn't accomplished anything yet in terms of loosening up the labor market."
Fed report points to potential sources of new financial turbulence -- In March 2020, at the start of the pandemic, the $24 trillion US Treasury market had a “near death” experience when for several days no buyers could be found for US government debt, supposedly the safest financial asset in the world. The US Federal Reserve intervened with a massive $4 trillion bailout to restore stability, but two-and-a-half years on the threat of a recurrence remains ever-present as the Fed’s Financial Stability Report issued last Friday makes clear. Summing up the report in a short statement, Fed vice-chair Lael Brainard wrote: “Today’s environment of rapid synchronous global monetary tightening, elevated inflation, and high uncertainty associated with the pandemic and the war raises the risk that a shock could lead to the amplification of vulnerabilities, for instance due to strained liquidity in core financial markets or hidden leverage.” Strained liquidity refers to a situation where traders cannot make large deals in financial assets, including in the Treasury market, without setting off significant movements in prices, which, in the case of a sale, can trigger a rush for exits and a crisis. Hidden leverage (debt), taken on by financial traders, but concealed from view when markets are stable, can become a major question if there are downward movements. Both issues feature throughout the Fed report. In its overview, the report said that since its previous analysis issued last May, “the economic outlook has weakened and uncertainty about the outlook has remained elevated.” Banks remained stable, but it is a different story in other areas of the financial system. Bank lending to nonbank financial institutions “reach[ed] new highs.” Moreover, there is lack of information, as the report noted, about “some parts of the nonbank financial sector, where hidden pockets of leverage could amplify adverse shocks” and monitoring could be “enhanced with more comprehensive and timely data.” This is a euphemistic way of saying there are areas of the financial system where authorities have no real idea of what is going on. “Short-term funding markets continue to have structural vulnerabilities, as some markets and institutions remain vulnerable to large and unexpected withdrawals, especially considering the highly uncertain outlook,” it said. Many bond and bank-loan mutual funds “continue to be susceptible to large redemptions, because they hold assets that can become illiquid amid stress.” In other words, conditions exist for the equivalent of what took place in former times—a bank run where the depositors demand their money back, but it cannot be provided because it has been put in assets that cannot be readily turned into cash.
Quietly, the Fed Releases Its Financial Stability Report and Lines Up a Scapegoat -- By Pam and Russ Martens ~ One minute after the stock market closed on Friday, the Federal Reserve mailed out a link to its newly-released Financial Stability Report to folks who have signed up to get press releases from the Fed.For those of you who have been reading our reports on the Fed for years – its unaccountable money printing and bailouts of Wall Street, the opaque activities of the trading floors owned by the New York Fed, its unchecked conflicts of interest, and its brazen, and as yet unprosecuted, trading scandal – you might suspect that the Fed would have pulled a lot of punches in its “Financial Stability Report.” You would be correct.On the topic of derivatives, which remain the greatest risk at the mega banks on Wall Street, the word “derivatives” is mentioned just eight times in the report – with little clarity. For Wall Street On Parade’s multitude of warnings on the actual risks posed by derivatives, see our “Related Articles” below.Another key risk to financial stability in the U.S. is the “interconnectedness” of the mega banks on Wall Street. This means that if one mega bank becomes insolvent or starts to teeter – as Citigroup did in 2008 – the systemic contagion spreads to the other mega banks that are counterparties to its derivatives, which in turn infects the entire financial system.The word “interconnected” appears just four times in the Fed’s Financial Stability Report. The following text provides a picture of what the Fed would rather not talk about in any depth.“Disruptions to economic activity or financial markets abroad can affect the United States through several channels. A pullback in risk-taking worldwide may cause further declines in asset prices and tighter credit conditions abroad and in the United States. Some U.S. investors would incur losses on foreign exposures, and foreign financial institutions would likely reduce lending to U.S. businesses. Foreign investors could sell Treasury securities and other safe U.S. assets, potentially adversely affecting financial-market functioning and the transmission of monetary policy. Foreign official holders might sell reserves to defend home currencies, and private holders might sell Treasury securities in the context of a widespread surge in demand for dollar cash buffers. Broader pressure on large internationally active foreign banks could — if sufficiently severe — result in material spillover to U.S. financial stability through strains on dollar funding markets (in which foreign banks are large participants) and interconnectedness with U.S. banks, although the effects would be mitigated by the resilience and sound capitalization of the U.S. banking system. More generally, modern financial markets are interconnected, so stresses abroad could lead to strains in U.S. markets and challenges for U.S. financial institutions.”The above paragraph provides a window into how the Fed is planning to spin the next financial meltdown to shift blame away from its own failed supervisory role of the mega banks. The Fed wants Congress and the public to believe that it has followed the mandates of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 and has reined in the risks of the mega banks that took down the U.S. economy in 2008. So the Fed writes: “…the resilience and sound capitalization of the U.S. banking system….” But the Fed also wants to have a scapegoat lined up to point the finger at when things blow up, so it adds: “More generally, modern financial markets are interconnected, so stresses abroad could lead to strains in U.S. markets and challenges for U.S. financial institutions.” The simple question is why hasn’t the Fed used its regulatory powers to restrict and reform these tight linkages of interconnectedness. The Office of Financial Research has been warning federal regulators about this serious problem for at least the past seven years. In a report it released on February 12, 2015, its researchers wrote: “…the default of a bank with a higher connectivity index would have a greater impact on the rest of the banking system because its shortfall would spill over onto other financial institutions, creating a cascade that could lead to further defaults. The report specifically called out five banks – which, today, remain the largest holders of derivatives among U.S. banks:“The larger the bank, the greater the potential spillover if it defaults; the higher its leverage, the more prone it is to default under stress; and the greater its connectivity index, the greater is the share of the default that cascades onto the banking system. Five of the U.S. banks had particularly high contagion index values — Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs.”
Fed seeks more data about nonbank borrowers' debt loads -The Federal Reserve wants more data about the credit banks are extending to unregulated nonbank financial institutions.In its financial stability report released late last week, the Fed noted that private-equity firms, mortgage originators and various other types of nonbank financial firms might be creating "hidden pockets of leverage" that could make the banking sector more susceptible to volatility. The report does not call for changes to supervision or regulatory policy at the Fed, but it notes that monitoring the sector "could be enhanced with more comprehensive and timely data."In recent years, the Fed has sought more data from banks about the nonbank financial institutions, or NBFIs, to which they lend, but gaps still remain. The Fed could continue to enhance these supervisory practices informally, but some policy specialists would like to see it go further.Jeremy Kress, a business law professor at the University of Michigan and former Fed lawyer, said there should be capital requirements specifically for banks that lend to NBFIs as well as great regulation for those groups. Kress, like other policy experts and economists, describes the growth of the NBFI sector as a direct response to the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, which prohibited banks from engaging in many types of risky lending. Now, nonbanks are providing those loans instead, albeit with financing from banks. Kress said this arrangement undermines the efforts to insulate the banking system from risky behavior. "If nonbank financial institutions experience distress, that distress could very easily transmit to the regulated banking sector by virtue of these interconnections between banks and nonbanks," he said. "The steady and rapid increase in bank lending to nonbank financial institutions is something that we should be worried about from a banking perspective."Banks have extended nearly $2 trillion of credit to NBFIs as of the second quarter of this year, according to the report, up from roughly $1.7 trillion a year ago. This activity has increased rapidly in recent years and has outpaced broader bank lending, with NBFI lending growing at more than double the rate of nonfinancial lending during the past year.Overall, leverage among borrowers of bank commercial and industrial loans has fallen during the past year on the back of tighter lending standards, the Fed's financial stability report notes. NBFIs, meanwhile, are known to carry high leverage ratios, and the opacity around their industries make it difficult to say precisely how indebted they are.Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said given the numerous pressures on financial markets today, it is important that regulators be aware of all possible threats to the financial system."Today's environment of rapid synchronous global monetary policy tightening, elevated inflation, and high uncertainty associated with the pandemic and the war raises the risk that a shock could lead to the amplification of vulnerabilities — for instance due to strained liquidity in core financial markets or hidden leverage," Brainard said in a statement that accompanied the report.
Collateral Damage From Higher Interest Rates - High inflation, wars in key commodity-producing regions, slowing economic growth, tightening monetary policy and turbulence in commodity stock markets resemble the dominant features of the global economy in the 1970s (UNCTAD 2022; World Bank 2022). “That period ended in the early 1980s,” as Martin Wolf (2022) reminds us, “with a brutal monetary tightening in the U.S., a sharp reduction in inflation, and a wave of debt crises in developing countries, especially in those of Latin America.” This much is true: the collateral damage to the world economy of monetary tightening by the Fed included a lost decade for development in most Latin American and African economies. No one wants a repeat of this disastrous episode—more so now, right after the worst global recession in 90 years, in which more than 114 million jobs were lost, the cumulative (confirmed) global death toll due to COVID-19 is more than 6.5 million persons (and counting), and about 120 million people were thrown back into extreme poverty. The COVID-19 recession affected the most vulnerable segments of societies disproportionately hard, as the highly uneven fiscal response to the pandemic widened already yawning disparities and inequities within and between countries (United Nations 2021). Higher spending on social protection and pandemic relief and lower revenues from taxation led to higher public budget deficits everywhere, and public debts rose significantly. The average public debt to GDP ratio for emerging economies in 2020 was 64% in 2020, up from an average value of 52% during 2015-19. IMF (2022a) forecasts suggest that the public debt to GDP ratio in emerging countries will rise even further—to 74% in 2026. The higher indebtedness comes with greater vulnerabilities to financial shocks, including higher interest rates.Nevertheless, support for a drastic monetary tightening in response to the rise in inflation during 2021-22 is growing in the U.S. and Europe. The most outspoken advocate of Volcker-like monetary tightening is Lawrence Summers (2022) who argues that “The US may need as severe monetary tightening as Paul Volcker pushed through in the late 1970s early 1980s.” Summers claims that the Federal Reserve may have to hike interest rates above 5% to beat back inflation, warning that if the Fed eases up in its inflation fight, this would be a “prescription for much higher interest rates and a sustained and very difficult stagflation that would have serious global consequences.”No one doubts that further monetary tightening by the Fed will push the U.S. and the global economy into a recession. But opinions are divided over how deep and long-lasting the unavoidable recession will be. Establishment opinion is that “the time to throttle an inflationary upsurge is at its beginning, when expectations are still on the policymakers’ side,” as Wolf (2022) puts it. That is, the sooner and the more aggressive central bankers act, the lower will be the collateral damage to the (global) economy and the more likely the (global) economy will experience a ‘soft landing’.The Bank for International Settlements (BIS 2022, p. 24) similarly warns, in its Annual Economic Report of 2022, that “the most pressing challenge for central banks is to restore low and stable inflation without, if possible, inflicting serious damage to the economy”, adding that “calibrating the response naturally involves a trade-off. Tightening too much and too quickly could inflict unnecessary damage. But doing too little would raise the prospect of a larger and more costly tightening down the road.” Establishment opinion firmly holds that it will be better to err on the ‘safe’ side—meaning that it is preferable to pre-emptively raise interest rates sooner and more aggressively, at the cost of a temporary and limited recession now, than to act more cautiously and risk inflation spiraling out of control, which would need much more strongly tightening later on and, hence, lead to a deeper and more prolonged recession (or worse).This establishment opinion is urged upon central bankers in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). For example, “a key lesson from the 1970s is,” according to World Bank (2022, p. 64), “that central banks need to act in a pre-emptive manner to avoid a loss of confidence in their commitment to maintaining low inflation [….] and to prevent a de-anchoring of inflation expectations.” For BIS (2022, p. 26), the task for central bankers is equally clear:“The new inflationary environment has changed the balance of risks. Gradually raising policy rates at a pace that falls short of inflation increases means falling real interest rates. This is hard to reconcile with the need to keep inflation risks in check. Given the extent of the inflationary pressure unleashed over the past year, real policy rates will need to increase significantly in order to moderate demand. Delaying the necessary adjustment heightens the likelihood that even larger and more costly future policy rate increases will be required, particularly if inflation becomes entrenched in household and firm behavior and inflation expectations.”
Yellen says don't read too much into cooling CPI data --Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called October's positive inflation report in the U.S. "a good reading," but cautioned against relying too much on one data point."Core inflation was a lot lower than had been anticipated, and that's in spite of the fact that we continue to get high readings on shelter," Yellen told reporters during a visit to New Delhi.Government data released Thursday showed inflation waslower than expected last month. The consumer price index rose 7.7% over the past 12 months, and by 6.3% when excluding food and energy.Markets reacted positively to the news, assuming it might nudge the Federal Reserve toward slowing its pace of rate increases after four successive three-quarter-point hikes. Treasury yields plunged Thursday and stocks gained the most in a day since early 2020.The Treasury chief has spoken in recent weeks about seeing signs that inflation would begin to slow, but emphasized Friday that some sectors would continue to fuel steep price increases.In particular, housing costs, which make up about a third of CPI, are expected to add to the pain well into 2023."Shelter costs — both owners' equivalent rent and market rents — are going to continue having momentum, adding to inflation on the high side for many months," she said.The Treasury chief met with reporters just after a set of meetings with India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to discuss deepening economic and financial ties between the world's two largest democracies. Part of her message focused on her push to shift critical supply chains serving the U.S. away from China.She noted, however, that the effort wasn't seeking to simply replace China with another concentrated trade relationship."India is a viable alternative" to China, she said, "but it's not just about the United States and India. It's about more diversified supply chains that will be more resilient and centered in countries that are our friends."Yellen departs India on Saturday to join President Biden for the Group of 20 leaders summit in Bali, Indonesia. Biden is scheduled to meet with China's President Xi Jinping while at the summit.
Interest rate risk, Treasury liquidity top Fed's supervisory priorities for 2023 --The Federal Reserve will be keeping a close eye on banks to make sure they maintain enough capital and liquidity to weather a potential economic downturn.In its biannual report on supervision and regulation, which was released Thursday morning, the Fed noted that banks are on sound financial footing and well positioned to absorb losses. Some have elected to increase credit loss provisions and take other steps to prepare for rising risks.Overall, the report details a banking market that is, in many ways, returning to pre-pandemic norms. Deposits are falling, loan volumes are growing and aggregate earnings falling and Tier 1 capital ratios have returned to 2019 levels. Still, as risk factors rise and market confidence begins to falter, the Fed notes that some large banks might not be adequately prepared for the worst. The report points out several areas of weakness in capital planning, including lackluster loss estimations and market stress scenarios, as well as errors in how some firms risk-weight assets when determining how much capital they must hold. The Fed also found that most large banks struggle with issues of governance and control, specifically when it comes to managing operational resilience, information technology, third-party risks and compliance. The findings of the report will set the tone for Fed's supervisory priorities next year. For large banks, the Fed's supervisors will key in on how banks are prepared to deal with interest rate risks that accompany changing monetary policy. This extends to their funding practices, as well as their assessment of the credit risks related to other financial market participants and their own customers. Large banks appear to have ample capital on hand, the report notes, citing the Fed's most recent stress test results. All the banks tested had enough Tier 1 capital to avoid dipping below the minimum capital ratio, according to the stress test findings released earlier this year. Most banks experienced greater losses in the 2022 scenario than in 2021, leading to their stress capital buffers being adjusted accordingly. To meet these higher requirements, some banks have slowed or paused share repurchases, the report notes.
U.S. regulators propose strengthening oversight of Treasury market - U.S. financial regulators proposed several steps to improve the functioning of the Treasuries market after it broke down early in the pandemic.A task force "proposed policies to enhance the oversight of significant participants in and trading venues for the Treasury market and to centrally clear more Treasury transactions," according to a report Thursday from the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the New York Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.The interagency group also said it's studying the potential benefits and costs of all-to-all trading in Treasuries — where various market participants trade directly with other, avoiding the primary dealers that have historically been the middlemen for most trades. Expanding the role of nonbanks would likely diminish the standing of the big dealers.With liquidity deteriorating amid this year's historic Treasuries slump, investment managers including Pimco argue the world's largest bond market remains just as vulnerable to dislocations as it was during the chaotic days of 2020.Regulators, academics and market participants are set to gather on Nov. 16 for an annual conference at the New York Fed on Treasury-market structure. The interagency group's report said the gathering will feature further discussions on developments and proposals to improve market resilience.Treasury officials at their regular quarterly refunding this month said they're also considering releasing more data on Treasury transactions to the public.
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 6th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is 7.7% below the same week in 2019 (92.2% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 3rd. Movie ticket sales were at $91 million last week, down about 39% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through Oct 29th. The occupancy rate was up 5.2% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022. As of October 28th, gasoline supplied was down 11.5% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.
Republican House Could Deepen Recession Over Debt Ceiling - Americans were already unhappy with the economy of 2022. Republican control of the House threatens to make 2023 worse. The GOP is poised to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives after this week’s midterm elections—albeit by a smaller margin than forecasters expected. That likely means less government support in the event the Federal Reserve’s steep interest-rate hikes trigger a recession as the cost of quashing the highest inflation in a generation. Not only that, but a fight over the federal debt limit risks making a potential downturn even deeper.
White House Held Secret Talks With Putin Aides To Avert US-Russia War -The White House has reportedly held secretive behind-the-scenes dialogue with the Kremlin related to the war in Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal revealed on Sunday, citing unnamed US and allied officials. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spearheaded the secret talks with high-level Russian officials in recent months, reportedly with the aim of reducing the risk of the two nuclear-armed superpowers stumbling into a direct broader conflict. "The officials said that U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan has been in contact with Yuri Ushakov, a foreign-policy adviser to Mr. Putin. Mr. Sullivan also has spoken with his direct counterpart in the Russian government, Nikolai Patrushev, the officials added," according to WSJ."The aim has been to guard against the risk of escalation and keep communications channels open, and not to discuss a settlement of the war in Ukraine, the officials said."Talks between Sullivan and top Russian officials haven't been disclosed on a public level since March. In response to the WSJ story, the Biden administration neither confirmed nor denied the claims of secret contact between the two sides, with National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson when asked if Sullivan had the conversations replying in a Sunday night statement, "People claim a lot of things."Further the report notes, "Several U.S. officials said that Mr. Sullivan is known within the administration as pushing for a line of communication with Russia, even as other top policy makers feel that talks in the current diplomatic and military environment wouldn’t be fruitful."The report doesn't indicate whether the alleged phone calls were positive or led to a lessening of tensions from Washington's perspective, nor is it known precisely when they took place. US-Moscow relations have hit an all-time historic low in the wake of the Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine, with the two nations' top diplomats, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, having only spoken once (at least one publicly disclosed conversation) - which was focused on a potential prisoner swap. President Biden in an early October media interview appeared to shut the door on the possibility of talks with Putin, saying at the time, "Look, I have no intention of meeting with him. But for example, if he came to me at the G20 and said I want to talk about the release of Griner, I’d meet with him. I mean, it would depend," he explained.
Biden's national security advisor held secret talks with Russia warning against using nukes in Ukraine: WSJ - White House National Security advisor Jake Sullivan held secret talks with senior Russian officials to warn them against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported. US and allied officials told the publication that in recent months Sullivan had held talks with Yuri Ushakov, a foreign policy adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as Nikolai Patrushev, head of Russia's security council. The intention from the US was to avoid the war in Ukraine escalating further, potentially to the point that Russia deploys part of its nuclear arsenal. The talks came amid concerns that Russia could resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, following a series of setbacks on the battlefield. In a televised address in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West that he was not bluffing when he said he'd be ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia. The New York Times reported last week that Russian military leaders had discussed using them. Ukraine in recently months forced Russia's military into retreat in the east of the country, and the Kremlin has launched a chaotic mobilization of civilians amid heavy battlefield casualties. In remarks on October 27, Putin said Russia was not intending to use nuclear weapons, and US and other Western intelligence agencies say they've not detected any signs of the military getting nuclear weapons ready. Amid the threat of nuclear war, US and Russian military officials have held discussions in a bid to avoid miscommunications that could result in the war spreading beyond Ukraine. Top military officials Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian general staff, have recently been in private communication, while US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu have also held talks. But diplomatic relations have overall been limited in the wake of the invasion, and the last time President Joe Biden and Putin communicated was in February, when Biden warned Putin against following through with his invasion plans.
'The Big One Is Coming': Top US Military Commander Warns American Capabilities "Sinking" -A top US military commander has warned that the power of America's military deterrent is 'fading' - and that America might not be adequately prepared for a large-scale military engagement."This Ukraine crisis that we’re in right now, this is just the warmup," Navy Admiral Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, said at a conference last week, according to the WSJ Editorial Board."The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested" for "a long time."According to Richard, things are getting worse."As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking. It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are," he said, adding "as those curves keep going," it won't matter "how good our commanders are, or how good our horses are—we’re not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem."Note that modifier “near-term.” This is a more urgent vulnerability than most of the political class cares to recognize. Adm. Richard noted that America retains an advantage in submarines—“maybe the only true asymmetric advantage we still have”—but even that may erode unless America picks up the pace “getting our maintenance problems fixed, getting new construction going.” Building three Virginia-class fast-attack submarines a year would be a good place to start. -WSJMeanwhile, America was caught flat-footed last year when China tested a hypersonic missile that flew around the world. This means that Beijing can put any US city or facility at risk - perhaps without even being detected.
US Nuclear Forces Chief Says 'the Big One Is Coming' - The commander that oversees US nuclear forces delivered an ominous warning at a naval conference last week by calling the war in Ukraine a “warmup” for the “big one” that is to come. “This Ukraine crisis that we’re in right now, this is just the warmup,” said Navy Adm. Charles Richard, the commander of US Strategic command. “The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested [in] a long time.”Richard’s warning came after the US released its new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which reaffirms that the US doctrine allows for the first use of nuclear weapons. The review says that the purpose of the US nuclear arsenal is to “deter strategic attacks, assure allies and partners, and achieve US objectives if deterrence fails.”The NPR says the US “would only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its Allies or partners.”The NPR was released with the 2022 National Defense Strategy that names China as the “most comprehensive and serious challenge” to the US and describes Russia as an “acute threat.” The document, as with the previous2018 National Defense Strategy, makes clear that the US military is preparing for future conflicts with both China and Russia.As the head of STRATCOM, Richard had previously warned that the risk of nuclear war with Russia and China is a “real possibility.” He said last year that the US military must “shift its principal assumption from ‘nuclear employment is not possible’ to ‘nuclear employment is a very real possibility,’ and act to meet and deter that reality.”The Nuclear Posture Review calls for the modernization of the nuclear triad, which could cost up to $1.5 trillion, and keeping tensions high with Russia and China helps justify the massive price tag. Richard said last week that the US needs to put more resources into competing with China’s military.Congress is looking to spend big on arming Taiwan, with a plan to give the island $10 billion in military aid included in the Senate’s version of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. While done in the name of deterrence, China’s actions and rhetoric make it clear that more US support for Taiwan will make war in the region more likely.
First Strike: The US and the World's Most Dangerous Nuclear Policy - Antiwar.com Original -- On October 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would not use nuclear weapons; on the same day, US President Joe Biden said he would.Two days earlier, at talks being held between the US, Japan and South Korea, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman explained that the "ironclad" US commitment to defending Japan and South Korea meant that the US "will use the full range of U.S. defense capabilities to defend our allies, including nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities."That line is striking and dangerous. It means that the US first strike policy would be triggered, not only by an attack on the US, but by an attack on US allies: and not just its NATO allies.The line is striking, but Sherman was just articulating official US policy. The 2018 US Nuclear Posture Review states that “The United States would only consider the employment of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States, its allies, and partners. Extreme circumstances could include significant non-nuclear strategic attacks.” The US also insists that it “has never adopted a “no first use” policy.”The US nuclear policy has three shocking features: the first strike policy means it would be willing to initiate a nuclear war by striking first, it would do so even when faced by a non-nuclear conventional threat even though it has the largest and most capable conventional forces in the world, and it would do so to defend not only itself but also its allies and even its "partners."There had been great hope that the US would repeal its first strike policy. At the recent UN General Assembly First Committee session on October 19, China’s ambassador for disarmament affairs, Li Song, declared that "China has solemnly committed to no first use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances, and not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones unconditionally." In a 2020 article in Foreign Affairs written during the presidential campaign, Biden had promised that he would take “steps to demonstrate our commitment to reducing the role of nuclear weapons." He said that “the sole purpose of the US nuclear arsenal should be deterring – and, if necessary, retaliating against – a nuclear attack," and promised that "As president, I will work to put that belief into practice.”But he didn’t. On October 27, the same day Wendy Sherman was explaining that the US would use nuclear weapons to defend Japan and South Korea, the Department of Defense released the long delayed 2022 Nuclear Posture Review. The updated review continues to state "The United States affirms that its nuclear forces deter all forms of strategic attack. They serve to deter nuclear employment of any scale directed against the US homeland or the territory of Allies and partners. …"It preserves the conclusion "that nuclear weapons are required to deter not only nuclear attack, but also a narrow range of other high consequence, strategic-level attacks."
Let’s Be Clear: If WW3 Happens It Will Be The Result Of Choices Made By The US Empire – Caitlin Johnstone --The commander of the US nuclear arsenal has stated unequivocally that the war in Ukraine is just a warmup exercise for a much larger conflict that’s already in the mail. Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp reports:The commander that oversees US nuclear forces delivered an ominous warning at a naval conference last week by calling the war in Ukraine a “warmup” for the “big one” that is to come.“This Ukraine crisis that we’re in right now, this is just the warmup,” said Navy Adm. Charles Richard, the commander of US Strategic command. “The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested [in] a long time.”Richard’s warning came after the US released its new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which reaffirms that the US doctrine allows for the first use of nuclear weapons. The review says that the purpose of the US nuclear arsenal is to “deter strategic attacks, assure allies and partners, and achieve US objectives if deterrence fails.” Not only does Richard appear to believe that a hot war between major world powers is a foregone conclusion, he has also previously stated that a nuclear war with Russia or China is now “a very real possibility.” Again, this is not some armchair warrior opining from his desk at a corporate newspaper or DC think tank, this is the head of STRATCOM. Richard would be personally overseeing the very warfare he is talking about. What I find most striking about remarks like these is how passive they always make it sound. Richard talks about “The Big One” like other people talk about California earthquakes, as though a hot war with China would be some kind of natural disaster that just happened out of nowhere. This type of rhetoric is becoming more and more common. Describing an Atomic Age world war as something that would happen to the US empire, rather than the direct result of concrete A-or-B decisions made by the empire, is becoming its own genre of foreign policy punditry. This passive, oopsy-poopsy narrative overlay that’s placed atop the US empire’s militarism is nothing new. Back in 2017 Fair.org’s Adam Johnson documented the way western media are always describing the United States as “stumbling” into wars and getting “sucked in” to military interventions, like a cheating spouse making up bad excuses after getting caught: This is expressed most clearly in the idea that the US is “drawn into” war despite its otherwise unwarlike intentions. “Will US Be Drawn Further Into Syrian Civil War?” asked Fox News (4/7/17). “How America Could Stumble Into War With Iran,” disclosed The Atlantic (2/9/17), “What It Would Take to Pull the US Into a War in Asia,” speculated Quartz (4/29/17). “Trump could easily get us sucked into Afghanistan again,” Slate predicted (5/11/17). The US is “stumbling into a wider war” in Syria, the New York Times editorial board (5/2/15) warned. “A Flexing Contest in Syria May Trap the US in an Endless Conflict,” Vice News (6/19/17) added. So let’s get real clear about this here and now: if there is a hot war between the US and a major power, it will not be because that war was “stumbled into”. It will not be like an earthquake or other natural disaster. It will not be something that happens to or is inflicted upon the US empire while it just passively stands there in Bambi-eyed innocence.It will be the result of specific choices made by the managers of empire. It will be the result of the US choosing escalation over de-escalation, brinkmanship over detente — not just once but over and over again, while declining off-ramp after off-ramp. It will be the result of real material decisions made by real material people who live in real material houses while collecting real material paychecks to make the choices they are making.
US Greenlights Guided Rockets For Finland To 'Bolster Europe’s Northern Flank' - Washington is moving forward with assisting Finland in improving its security situation at a moment its controversial application to joint NATO remains stalled due to objections from Turkey and Hungary. The State Department has approved the potential sale of $535 million worth of guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS) and related equipment to Helsinki. Among other things, the GMLRS transfer will contribute to land and air defense capabilities for Europe's northernmost allied outpost near Russia. "This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by improving the security of a trusted partner, which is an important force for political stability and economic progress in Europe," the US Department of Defense announced last week."It is vital to the US national interest to assist Finland in developing and maintaining a strong and ready self-defense capability," the statement added. Finland shares an 800-mile border with Russia, and the Kremlin has warned that any observable build-up of NATO infrastructure near the border will trigger Russian forces to do the same. Moscow has further warned of nuclear build-up and standoff in the Baltic region over Finland's potential entry into NATO. "Finland intends to use these defense articles and services to increase its national stock, bolstering the land and air defense capabilities in Europe’s northern flank," the US statement underscored. "The increased national stock is critical to Finland’s defense and deterrence due to the deteriorated security situation in Europe."According to more details in The Defense Post:Under the order, Finland requested 150 M30A1 GMLRS steel cases or M30A2 GMLRS missile pods with an insensitive munitions propulsion system (IMPS) or a combination of both.The Northern European country also included 250 M31A1 GMLRS unitary steel cases or M31A2 GMLRS-U IMPS, or a combination of both, in the request....The state department is still in the process of diverting 50 percent of the procurement from US stocks. A final decision based on this process will determine the GMLRS version Finland receives.
"Give Kremlin A Warning": US 'Nuclear Apocalypse' Submarine Enters Mediterranean Sea - Multiple reports show the world's largest nuclear submarine, the USS Rhode Island, left the Port of Gibraltar on Spain's south coast last week and was last seen entering the Mediterranean. British newspaper Daily Express said the nuclear submarine is "reportedly heading towards the Black Sea." The Italian newspaper la Repubblica said USS Rhode Island, which arrived in Gibraltar on Nov. 1, entered the Mediterranean Sea on Friday. The Ohio-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine can carry 24 Trident II missiles capable of hitting targets 18 thousand kilometers away. "Rhode Island emerges in Gibraltar, armed with intercontinental missiles and hundreds of nuclear warheads. On a mission to give the Kremlin a warning," La Repubblica wrote. ⚔️⚡⚓ The US nuclear-powered submarine USS Rhode Island, dubbed the "rider of the apocalypse", has entered the Mediterranean Sea. The submarine is capable of carrying 24 Trident II intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of engaging targets at ranges of up to 1/ pic.twitter.com/goAvJZsAED Earlier this week, Captain John Craddock, commander of the US Navy's Task Force 69, said:"Rhode Island's port visit to Gibraltar reinforces our ironclad commitment to our allies and partners in the region."The US and UK share a strong history of cooperation, through exercises, operations, and cooperation activities such as this, that enhance our combined capabilities and partnership."The complexity, lethality, and tactical expertise of Rhode Island epitomises the effectiveness and strength of the submarine force."
US, Russia Agree To Re-enter Nuclear Treaty Talks For 1st Time Since Ukraine Invasion --Signaling a rare breakthrough at a moment that direct communications are almost non-existent, the US has confirmed this week that talks with Russia will move forward on maintenance and renewal of the single existing nuclear treaty between the two sides. In early August, Russia formally notified the Biden administration that it suspected inspections of its nuclear arsenal under the terms of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty.State Department spokesperson Ned Price announced that New START will be focus of bilateral talks in the near future. "We have agreed that the BCC [Bilateral Consultative Commission] will meet in the near future under the terms of the New START Treaty. The work of the BCC is confidential, but we do hope for a constructive session," he said in a Tuesday press briefing.The last meeting of the BCC was over a year ago, on October 2021, with central aspects of the treaty since stalled due to attempts of the US to resume nuclear arsenal inspections on Russian soil, which Moscow rebuffed.Russia had complained that it was actually the US side which "deprive the Russian Federation of the right to conduct inspections on American territory."But the State Department cited the invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions, including travel restrictions, placed on Russian officials: "US sanctions and restrictive measures imposed as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine are fully compatible" with the New START treaty, a prior statement had said.Price claimed in his fresh Tuesday statements that "we believe deeply, around the world, in the transformative power and the importance of diplomacy and dialogue." He added: "When it comes to Russia, of course, we are clear eyed, we’re realistic about what dialogue between the United States and Russia can – both what it can entail and what it can accomplish."
U.S. quietly asks banks to keep some ties with Russia, even as Congress balks -- Deep into a seven-hour congressional hearing on Sept. 21, Rep. Brad Sherman, a Democrat from California, pressed JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on whether his bank would sever ties with Russian companies including energy giant Gazprom PJSC. Banks like Dimon's, Sherman argued, were exploiting a sanctions loophole to keep doing business in Russia despite its invasion of Ukraine. "We are following the instructions of the American government as they asked us to do it," Dimon responded before Sherman cut him off, setting his sights on Citigroup's Jane Fraser with a similar inquiry. The exchange put on display how the country's largest banks are caught in the push-pull between the Biden administration and Congress on sanctions. Behind the scenes, the Treasury and State departments have urged banking giants including JPMorgan and Citigroup to keep doing business with certain strategic Russian firms, according to people familiar with the situation. The quiet effort is part of the administration's push to minimize adverse impacts of the sanctions regime designed to punish Russia. While some in Congress pound the table for stronger measures against Russia, the administration is trying to hinder Russia's advances while avoiding a global economic catastrophe. "Congress needs to understand this — the U.S. government has not imposed a comprehensive embargo with Russia, there's still pockets of business that are allowed," Nnedinma Ifudu Nweke, an attorney who specializes in U.S. economic sanctions and trade embargoes at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, said in an interview. The Treasury Department "will continue to have meetings to educate banks on those pockets of allowable transactions, especially in the humanitarian space," Nweke said.The Biden administration has repeatedly said it wants banks and businesses to keep the money flowing to nonsanctioned sectors of Russia's economy. But the extent of its conversations with the banks hasn't been previously reported. Treasury and State Department officials have called on lenders to continue offering basic services such as U.S. dollar settlement, payment transfers and trade finance offerings for those Russian companies exempt from certain aspects of sanctions such as Gazprom or fertilizer producers Uralkali PJSC or PhosAgro PJSC, the people said. The back and forth highlights the balance both banks and the government must maintain in denying President Vladimir Putin the money he needs to fund the invasion while stemming broader economic shocks.
Kyiv lawmaker: Early results from US elections ‘very good for Ukraine’ - The Hill - Democrats’ strong showing in the midterm elections is “very good for Ukraine,” a member of the Ukrainian parliament told The Hill on Wednesday. Oleksiy Goncharenko, who is part of the European Solidarity party in Ukraine, welcomed the early results from the midterm elections, saying he closely followed the defeat of candidates who pushed a more isolationist foreign policy and the victory of lawmakers who have supported U.S. assistance for Ukraine. “Speaking about the results from Ukraine perspective, it is clear that for Ukraine the danger was in those people, you can call them isolationist or far-right people, who were saying, ‘Let’s not care about Ukraine, it’s too far from us.’ … These people, I think they’re not right and American voters decided like this.” Continued U.S. assistance to Ukraine had been a key focus in the political debate ahead of the elections, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) saying Congress won’t write a “blank check” on aid for Ukraine if the GOP take control. While it is yet unclear whether Republicans will win control of Congress, Democrats had a much stronger night on Tuesday than anticipated. The party flipped a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania, narrowing the GOP’s path to taking the upper chamber, and won more House races than expected, minimizing Republicans’ margins if they do take that chamber. Goncharenko predicted that the GOP congressional base aligned with former President Trump that has urged cuts to Ukraine aid will be less influential than previously thought following Tuesday’s election.
US Privately Telling Ukraine Be Open To Negotiations With Putin - The White House is now privately urging the Ukrainian government to show openness toward negotiations with Russia, The Washington Post reported Saturday. It follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pledging to never enter negotiations with Moscow unless Vladimir Putin is removed from power. The US administration appears to be trying to nuance the push not as a compromise, but under the optics of ensuring Ukraine "maintains a moral high ground in the eyes of its international backers" as "a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come". This marks the first reported major admission on the part of the Biden administration that dealing with rising food and fuel costs - also at a moment just ahead of midterm elections in which voters are dreading inflation - is a public priority in the West that is quickly supplanting the question of whether Ukraine will "win".The WaPo report indicates the White House is fully cognizant of the growing war "fatique" - also amid increased vocal GOP objections to the 'blank check' approach to Ukraine foreign aid: While U.S. officials share their Ukrainian counterparts’ assessment that Putin, for now, isn’t serious about negotiations, they acknowledge that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ban on talks with him has generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war’s disruptive effects on the availability and cost of food and fuel are felt most sharply."Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners," said one U.S. official who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations between Washington and Kyiv.US officials cited in the report say the onset of a harsh winter, and the fact that Ukraine is already experiencing rolling emergency blackouts due to Russia's attacks on the energy grid, is likely to make Zelensky amenable to ceasefire talks. The US officials believe that Kiev "is attempting to lock in as many military gains as it can before winter sets in, when there might be a window for diplomacy."
Zelensky And Bush To Give Joint Pro-War Presentation – Caitlin Johnstone - War criminal George W Bush and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be appearing at an event next week at the George W. Bush Presidential Center, in partnership with US government-funded narrative management operations Freedom House and National Endowment for Democracy. The goal of the presentation will reportedly be to address the completely fictional and imaginary concern that congressional Republicans won’t continue supporting US proxy war efforts in Ukraine.CNN reports:Former US President George W. Bush will hold a public conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky next week with the aim of underscoring the importance of the US continuing to support Ukraine’s war effort against Russia.The event, which will take place in Dallas and be open to the public, comes amid questions about the willingness of the former president’s Republican Party to maintain support for Ukraine.“Ukraine is the frontline in the struggle for freedom and democracy. It’s literally under attack as we speak, and it is vitally important that the United States provide the assistance, military and otherwise to help Ukraine defend itself,” David Kramer, the managing director for global policy at the George W. Bush Institute, told CNN. “President Bush believes in standing with Ukraine.”The Struggle for Freedom event will take place on Wed nesday, in partnership with the Freedom House and the National Endowment for Democracy, at the George W. Bush Presidential Center.
North Korea Angrily Rejects US "Rumor" It's Supplying Russian Forces - North Korea on Tuesday again lashed out at the United States, vehemently rejecting accusations that Pyongyang has been supplying artillery ammunition to Russian forces for the war in Ukraine. A statement in KCNA refuted the charge as "groundless" - chalking it up to Washington spreading rumors and propaganda. "Recently, the US is persistently spreading a groundless 'rumor of arms dealings' between the DPRK and Russia," North Korea's vice director of military foreign affairs of the Ministry of National Defense said.The statement added that it's part of an ongoing US "hostile attempt to tarnish the image of the DPRK in the international arena." Tensions surrounding the divided Korean peninsula are at boiling point over last week's record number of missile launches out of the north, and joint US-south war drills which were deemed a provocation. "We once again make clear that we have never had 'arms dealings' with Russia and that we have no plan to do so in the future," the statement from Pyongyang added.US officials have cited intelligence reports which allege a North Korea to Russia ammo transfer is the latest sign of desperation amid depleting Russian munitions after six months of war in Ukraine.
US Offers Bounty For Singaporean Over North Korea Oil Shipments -The US Department of State on Thursday issued a $5 million bounty for information on a Singaporean businessman who broke international sanctions by transporting fuel to North Korea. Kwek Kee Seng, director of the Singapore-based shipping company Swanseas Port Services, is accused of directing the delivery of petroleum products to North Korea and using one of his own oil tankers, the M/T Courageous, to conduct illicit ship-to-ship transfers, according to a statement. The bounty comes as the US ratchets up pressure on anyone seen supporting the development of North Korea’s weapons programs. The US has also condemned what it said was the test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by North Korea on Thursday, as Pyongyang continued a barrage of weapons tests to protest allied military drills. Kwek was among individuals and entities sanctioned last month for activities related to the exportation of petroleum to the regime. “Kwek and his co-conspirators sought to obscure their identities and activities by conducting financial transactions through a series of shell companies,” the US State Department said. It added that payments were routed through businesses based in Panama and Singapore, and through US banks to pay for the operations. “These transactions violated the prohibition of the export of financial services for the benefit of the DPRK,” the department said. He remains at large, though the US government said his known locales include North Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Cameroon, and Cambodia. A federal arrest warrant was issued for Kwek in the US last year after he was charged with conspiracy to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and conspiracy to commit international money laundering.
The Self-Licking Boot Of US Militarism – Caitlin Johnstone - A new Bloomberg article titled “‘Sloppy’ US Talk on China’s Threat Worries Some Skeptical Experts” discusses the dangerous cycle in which pressures in the US political establishment to continually escalate hostilities with Beijing provokes responses that are then falsely interpreted as Chinese aggression.Bloomberg’s Iain Marlow writes:The hawkish narrative “limits room for maneuver in a crisis,” said M. Taylor Fravel, director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Any effort to defuse tension could be characterized as “conciliatory or not tough enough,” he said.China has been consistent on Taiwan and there’s little public evidence to suggest it’s sped up the timeline to take Taiwan, said a former senior US official who worked on China policy but asked not to be identified.The former official said the hawkish tone in DC has contributed to a cycle where the US makes the first move, interprets Chinese reactions as a provocation, and then escalates further.Bloomberg quotes Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund, who says this cycle of self-reinforcing escalation could “end up provoking the war that we seek to deter.” We just saw this same self-perpetuating cycle of military escalation exemplified against North Korea, where tensions have again been flaring after a long pause. The US and South Korea initiated a provocative military drill designed to menace the DPRK, Pyongyang responded by launching missiles in its own show of strength, and the Pentagon announced an extension of the drills in response to that response.Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp explains: Washington and Seoul started their Vigilant Storm exercises on Monday, which were initially scheduled to run 24 hours a day for five days. This year’s Vigilant Storm is the largest-ever iteration of the drills, involving nearly 100 American warplanes and 140 South Korean aircraft, and about 1,600 planned sorties.Pyongyang made it clear it would respond to the Vigilant Storm drills, and it launched 23 missiles on Wednesday, which is said to be the most North Korea has fired in a single day. North Korea also fired over 100 artillery rounds on the same day and launched six more missiles on Thursday.Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the extension of Vigilant Storm after a meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Lee Jong-sup. “I’ve consulted with Minister Lee and we’ve decided to extend Vigilant Storm, which is our long-scheduled combined training exercise, to further bolster our readiness and interoperability,” Austin said. “So they launch these war games, provoke a bunch of North Korean missile launches and then say they have to extend the war games because of the missile launches,” tweeted DeCamp.
US To Establish Another New Military Base In Northeast Syria -The US-led international coalition forces operating in northeastern Syria intend to establish a new military base in their controlled areas in the countryside of Raqqa. Local sources said that a convoy of US forces, including several armored military vehicles, arrived in Raqqa city as part of preparations to install a new base in the area.On the field, the illegal troops began transferring the logistical equipment and necessary gear to the specified location, coinciding with heavy surveillance drone activity. The US army and international coalition occupy at least 28 declared military sites in Syria, distributed over three provinces, mainly Hasakah (17 sites), Deir Ezzor (nine locations), and Homs (two areas). The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) released photographs showing the construction of a new base near Al-Raqqa Bridge on the Euphrates River, south of the city. The distribution of Washington’s illegal bases resembles the cordon surrounding the sources of oil and gas located east of the Euphrates River, representing most of Syria’s underground wealth.
US Finds Others Aligned Against It In Saudi-Sparked Oil Row -When US President Joe Biden accused Saudi Arabia of siding with Russia over oil, Riyadh cast itself as an emerging power that stands up to Washington and looks after its own interests - and that’s been winning cheerleaders. Saudi Arabia rallied crude exporters behind a 2-million-barrel oil output cut by OPEC+, the crude exporters group Riyadh steers with Russia. But Turkey and China also spoke out in Saudi Arabia’s defense, even though as energy importers they suffer from the Oct 5 move that keeps oil around $90 as the economic outlook darkens. The oil row exposes a broader shift, with countries willing to push back against or question US influence, even if that runs counter to their immediate economic interests. They are keen to deepen ties with a kingdom undergoing an economic boom, or to find ways to benefit from US-Saudi frictions in their own disputes with Washington. This comes ahead of the Group of 20 world leaders summit in Bali next week where Biden seeks to rally international support for the further isolation of Russia and how to tackle the effect on the global economy and energy markets. Crude prices falling would be more beneficial to Turkey, where energy costs have helped drive inflation to a two-decade high, but Ankara objects to the US threatening another country, a Turkish official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss government thinking. “This bullying is not right,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Oct 21 after Biden vowed Saudi Arabia would face unspecified “consequences” for the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting. Turkey objected to the US reaction, even if it wasn’t happy with rising prices, he said. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has other good reasons to side with Riyadh. He’s sought financial support from Saudi Arabia ahead of presidential elections next summer, galvanizing ties that allow him to also hedge Ankara’s relations with the West. China, in its own deepening dispute with the US over global trade, praised Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of an “independent energy policy” after the OPEC+ decision and said Riyadh should play “a greater role” in international and regional affairs. China is Saudi Arabia’s biggest trade partner and its top buyer of oil. “This is part of China trying to shore up support elsewhere which it perceives can help strengthen ‘its’ side in the global confrontation with the United States,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore who researches China’s foreign relations. “It is really all about trying to take advantage and sow fissures in traditional US alliances to try to strengthen China’s hand on the world stage.” In turn, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is making inroads in Asia. Chinese leader Xi Jinping is planning to visit Saudi Arabia soon, the kingdom’s foreign minister said last month, as the two countries strengthen trade and security links which have unnerved Washington.
UAE meddled in U.S. political system, intelligence report says - U.S. intelligence officials have compiled a classified report detailing extensive efforts to manipulate the American political system by the United Arab Emirates, an influential, oil-rich nation in the Persian Gulf long considered a close and trusted partner. The activities covered in the report, described to The Washington Post by three people who have read it, include illegal and legal attempts to steer U.S. foreign policy in ways favorable to the Arab autocracy. It reveals the UAE’s bid, spanning multiple U.S. administrations, to exploit the vulnerabilities in American governance, including its reliance on campaign contributions, susceptibility to powerful lobbying firms and lax enforcement of disclosure laws intended to guard against interference by foreign governments, these people said. Each spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified information. The document was compiled by the National Intelligence Council and briefed to top U.S. policymakers in recent weeks to guide their decision-making related to the Middle East and the UAE, which enjoys outsize influence in Washington. The report is remarkable in that it focuses on the influence operations of a friendly nation rather than an adversarial power such as Russia, China or Iran. It is also uncommon for a U.S. intelligence product to closely examine interactions involving U.S. officials given its mandate to focus on foreign threats. “The U.S. intelligence community generally stays clear of anything that could be interpreted as studying American domestic politics,” said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who served on the National Intelligence Council in the 1990s. “Doing something like this on a friendly power is also unique. It’s a sign that the U.S. intelligence community is willing to take on new challenges,” he said. Lauren Frost, a spokeswoman at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, declined to comment when asked about the report. The UAE’s ambassador to Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, said he is “proud of the UAE’s influence and good standing in the U.S.” “It has been hard earned and well deserved. It is the product of decades of close UAE-US cooperation and effective diplomacy. It reflects common interests and shared values,” he said in a statement. The relationship is unique. Over the years, the United States has agreed to sell the UAE some of its most sophisticated and lethal military equipment, including MQ-9 aerial drones and advanced F-35 fighter jets, a privilege not bestowed on any other Arab country over concern about diminishing Israel’s qualitative military edge. Some of the influence operations described in the report are known to national security professionals, but such activities have flourished due to Washington’s unwillingness to reform foreign-influence laws or provide additional resources to the Department of Justice. Other activities more closely resemble espionage, people familiar with the report said. The UAE has spent more than $154 million on lobbyists since 2016, according to Justice Department records. It has spent hundreds of millions of dollars more on donations to American universities and think tanks, many that produce policy papers with findings favorable to UAE interests.
Biden courted oil companies before threatening them with windfall tax - Before President Biden lambasted oil companies for excess profits last week and threatened to slap a “windfall tax” on them, several of his top energy advisers privately attempted to woo that same industry only to get rebuffed, according to seven people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Officials from the White House and the State and Energy departments reached out to oil industry trade groups and companies in mid-October to get support for a plan to buy crude to refill the country’s emergency reserves, said source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not permitted to share the discussions. They told industry representatives their plan would help U.S. oil and gas companies by guaranteeing that the government would purchase oil in months to come if crude prices fell to about $70 a barrel or below. It was the latest of several attempts by the Biden administration to prompt oil companies to boost output, this time by telling them they could invest with the confidence that the government would help ensure steady revenue. Officials including the National Economic Council director, Brian Deese, and Amos Hochstein, a special presidential coordinator at the State Department, called some of the world’s largest oil companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell. But none has endorsed the plan or committed to boosting output, a setback for an administration trying to lower energy prices going into an election and weaken the power of Russia as a major energy exporter. Instead of repairing relations with the U.S. oil industry, the outreach deepened a divide between the White House and executives who control U.S. oil output and have little trust that the president will back them. Several industry officials said executives told administration officials that the logic of the plan wasn’t clear and that the effort was probably too small to work as the White House claimed. Some called the outreach a political ploy amid a series of comments from the president blaming the oil companies for record-high prices and castigating them for their historically high profits. “We’ve been disappointed that the conversations of the last several weeks have been geared so much toward midterm politics,” said Chet Thompson, leader of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, the refiners’ trade group. “We’ll be happy after that to get back to serious energy policymaking.”
Biden-Big Oil Feud Intensifying As World Needs More US Oil - As October drew to a close, the White House saw another potential energy flash point on the horizon. Diesel and heating oil inventories in the US Northeast were getting worryingly low. Officials swung into action, organizing a series of calls between Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and several of the country’s biggest oil refiners to discuss strategies to boost stockpiles. The tone was cordial, according to people with knowledge of the conversations. But the very next working day, the oil industry was blindsided. At a hastily arranged press conference on Oct. 31, President Joe Biden castigated Big Oil for handing “outrageous” profits to shareholders and executives rather than bringing down prices at the pump. Unless that changed, he warned, oil companies faced more taxes. “Their profits are a windfall of war -- the windfall from the brutal conflict that’s ravaging Ukraine and hurting tens of millions of people around the globe,” he said. It was just the kind of whiplash that has repeatedly sown mistrust and stoked tensions with the fossil fuel industry over the course of the Biden administration, according to multiple interviews with executives and lobbyists involved in oil and gas, who declined to be identified because the meetings and conversations they described were private. Biden’s team has been at odds with the industry since the 2020 election campaign. But as global energy prices spiked this year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the White House called on Big Oil to help, only to grow increasingly frustrated that it’s holding back on production while reaping record earnings. “Month after month, these companies have posted record profits that they’ve then used to pad shareholder pockets rather than boost production and lower gas prices,” said White House spokesman Abdullah Hasan. “Month after month, we’ve offered them every opportunity and incentive to change their behavior.” While they were never under any illusions about the president’s green ambitions, oil industry insiders say they’ve become increasingly unhappy with a series of conflicting policy priorities -- for example, moving within a matter of months from a halt on federal leasing for oil drilling to demanding more production -- and unrealistic requests such as spending billions of dollars to rapidly add more refining capacity. Unwilling to act as fall guys for surging household fuel bills in the run-up to the midterm elections, typically low-profile industry figures are becoming more outspoken. Last week, the chief executive officers of Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. issued grave warnings about potential windfall taxes. Marshall McCrea, co-CEO of pipeline operator Energy Transfer LP, said this week that US energy policy is so all over the map that it’s becoming like “a Saturday Night Live skit.” “It’d be funny if it wasn’t so tragically sad,”
Fossil Fuel Firms Spent Millions in Bid to Defeat Democrats in the Midterms - Truthout - Ohio voters chose Trump-backed Republican J.D. Vance over Democrat Tim Ryan to fill a crucial Senate seat on Tuesday, and the race was a nailbiter until the end. Seeking support from working-class voters in a state that former President Donald Trump won twice, Ryan ran a heterodox campaign with little support from the national Democratic Party, but the race was so competitive that Republican groups swooped in and spent at least $30 million to counter the congressman and boost Vance. A good chunk of that money was a gift from the fossil fuel industry.Ryan, a fierce critic of the trade deals that gutted manufacturing jobs across Appalachia and the Rust Belt, made it clear that he is no enemy of fossil fuels. Ryan wants Ohio to be a leading producer of clean energy technology, but he is also a big fan of fracking for natural gas, which provides jobs for his constituents and income for a region that saw coal mining and manufacturing collapse in recent decades. Ryan has backed away from supporting anything like a Green New Deal and is compared to Sen. Joe Manchin, the conservative Democrat and coal champion from West Virginia who obstructed President Joe Biden’s agenda in an attempt to win concessions for the fossil fuel industry. While Republicans attack Ryan for voting against unpopular bills that would have deregulated polluters and opened sensitive ecosystems such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, the fossil fuel lobby is more concerned about which party controls the Senate and how much Democrats can achieve before Biden leaves office.The industry spent lavishly on the 2022 midterms in hopes of flipping Congress over to GOP control and thwarting any effort by Democrats to fight climate change by reducing oil and gas pollution. As of October 19, fossil fuel industry groups and companies, such as Koch Industries and Chevron, had donated $32.8 million to two super PACs aligned with Republican congressional leadership, according to a review of federal records by Sludge co-founder David Moore. The super PACs, the Congressional Leadership Fund and the Senate Leadership Fund, have spent more money on the 2022 midterms than any other outside groups. Fueled by wealthy industries and billionaires, campaign spending by outside groups reached a record $1.3 billion by mid-October, and total spending could be higher after largely unregulated super PACs spent the final weeks ahead of the election flooding the airwaves and internet with ads. The Senate Leadership Fund, which operates independently but is dedicated to winning Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a GOP majority, was the top spender as of last month after reporting nearly $150 million in expenditures, according to OpenSecrets. The Congressional Leadership Fund focuses on House races and spent $110 million on ads attacking Democrats or backing Republicans. National campaigns are not the only target. Flush with cash from record profits, the fossil fuel industry poured money into lobbying and campaigns at all levels of government in 2022, including in states, such as New York and California, where policymakers are pursuing cleaner energy and regulations to reduce the health impacts of pollution.
Biden tightens methane emissions rule amid push for more oil (AP) — The Biden administration on Friday ramped up efforts to reduce methane emissions, targeting the oil and gas industry for its role in global warming even as President Joe Biden has pressed energy producers for more oil drilling to lower prices at the gasoline pump.Biden announced a supplemental rule cracking down on emissions of methane — a potent greenhouse gas that contributes significantly to global warming and packs a stronger short-term punch than even carbon dioxide — as he attended a global climate conference in Egypt.“We’re racing forward to do our part to avert the ‘climate hell’ the U.N. secretary general so passionately warned about,″ Biden said, referring to comments this week by United Nations leader António Guterres.The new methane rule will help ensure that the United States meets a goal set by more than 100 nations to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030 from 2020 levels, Biden said. “I can ... say with confidence, the United States of America will meet our emissions targets by 2030,″ he said. The Environmental Protection Agency rule follows up on a proposal Biden announced last year at a United Nations climate summit in Scotland. The 2021 rule targets emissions from existing oil and gas wells nationwide, rather than focusing only on new wells as previous EPA regulations have done.
Why America’s climate law is causing rifts at COP 27 - President Joe Biden and other U.S. officials think they finally have a winning climate message to share with the world — even if not everyone agrees. After years of false starts and disappointments, Biden and congressional Democrats this summer passed into law a sprawling $370 billion package of investments and tax credits that promises to transform the U.S. economy and give the United States a plausible way to meet its 2030 climate pledges. “People see what the United States is doing, and it has spurred other countries on,” U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said. But while delegates gathering in Egypt for this year’s global climate talks say they’re glad the U.S. finally has a climate law in hand, the Democrats’ law has sparked significant controversy with even its closest allies. The measure has attracted widespread criticism from U.S. trading partners, in large part because the Inflation Reduction Act is saturated with provisions that seek to encourage U.S. production of electric vehicles and green energy. Those incentives have angered both rich and poor countries and opened the door to trade disputes. “It’s an amount of state aid to American businesses that is probably not really in line with the general trade agreements that we have,” said Sébastien Treyer, executive director of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, a think tank. European Union officials say the bloc’s manufacturing base could be harmed by the law’s “buy American” provisions, which have been touted at home by Democrats as a necessary shot in the arm for U.S. competitiveness in sectors that will thrive in a carbon-controlled world. E.U. Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis has threatened a World Trade Organization complaint if those provisions are not amended. The Biden administration and European Commission established a task force late last month to “address specific concerns raised by the EU related to the IRA.” But on Friday, E.U. officials filed comments with the Treasury Department alleging that five of the law’s tax credits “contain provisions with clearly discriminatory domestic content requirements, in breach of WTO rules.” Other U.S. allies, such as Japan and South Korea, have joined the European Union in calling foul. They say the Inflation Reduction Act is a way for the United States to subsidize its manufacturing base. ‘Other countries are going to follow suit’ Take the U.S. law’s much-vaunted EV tax credit. To be eligible for the $7,500 credit, a new electric vehicle must have been assembled in the United States, Canada or Mexico. Failure to source the battery’s critical minerals from North America or to manufacture the battery there reduces the credit’s value by half each. For contrast, France offers a roughly equivalent subsidy for EVs regardless of where they’re manufactured.
Exclusive: U.S. blocks more than 1,000 solar shipments over Chinese slave labor concerns -More than 1,000 shipments of solar energy components worth hundreds of millions of dollars have piled up at U.S. ports since June under a new law banning imports from China’s Xinjiang region over concerns about slave labor, according to federal customs officials and industry sources. The level of seizures, which has not previously been reported, reflects how a policy intended to heap pressure on Beijing over its Uyghur detention camps in Xinjiang risks slowing the Biden administration’s efforts to decarbonize the U.S. power sector to fight climate change. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has seized 1,053 shipments of solar energy equipment between June 21, when the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act went into effect, and Oct. 25, it told Reuters in response to a public records request, adding none of the shipments have yet been released. The agency would not reveal the manufacturers or confirm details about the quantity of solar equipment in the shipments, citing federal law that protects confidential trade secrets. Three industry sources with knowledge of the matter, however, told Reuters the detained products include panels and polysilicon cells likely amounting to up to 1 gigawatt of capacity and primarily made by three Chinese manufacturers – Longi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd, Trina Solar Co Ltd and JinkoSolar Holding Co. Combined, Longi, Trina and Jinko typically account for up to a third of U.S. panel supplies. But the companies have halted new shipments to the United States over concerns additional cargoes will also be detained, the industry sources said. The sources asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. China denies abuses in Xinjiang. Beijing initially denied the existence of any detention camps, but then later admitted it had set up “vocational training centers” necessary to curb what it said was terrorism, separatism and religious radicalism in Xinjiang. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told a regular news briefing on Friday that claims about the use of forced labor in Xinjiang were “the lie of the century fabricated by a small group of anti-China individuals” and would hinder the global response to climate change. “The U.S. side should immediately stop the unreasonable suppression of China’s photovoltaic enterprises and release the seized solar panel components as fast as possible,” he said.In an email, Jinko said it is working with CBP on documentation proving its supplies are not linked to forced labor and is “confident the shipments will be admitted.”
Climate conversations missing from 2022 Senate debates - Media Matters - Faced with an escalating climate crisis impacting millions of people across the country, a recent Supreme Court decision restricting environmental protections, and the passage of the most significant climate legislation in U.S. history, this year’s U.S. Senate debates could have provided viewers and voters with an opportunity to learn how candidates plan to address climate change and related issues. Out of the five Senate debates monitored by Media Matters in 2022 — in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania — only one included discussion about climate change. There are many salient issues this midterm election, but climate change is still top-of-mind for many voters. Unfortunately, their climate concerns were mostly ignored during key debates we monitored. Even urgent climate issues such as the historic Mississippi River drought were ignored, while ostensible climate issues like fracking were instead framed through a narrow political lens. In four out of five high-profile debates – Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, and Pennsylvania – moderators did not ask the candidates any questions about climate change. Climate change took center stage during debates for the first time in 2020’s presidential race, and a number of important climate-related events have happened since, including the Supreme Court decision in July severely curtailing the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. Also in 2022, the fossil fuel industry has been credibly accused by environmental activists of profiteering from the economic instability caused by the Russian war in Ukraine, obfuscating its refusal to produce more oil and gas, padding its record 2021 profits through anti-consumerist practices, and moving to deepen the world’s reliance on its products. Meanwhile, both 2021 and 2022 have seen devastating, record-breaking extreme climate events that disrupted the lives of millions of people. In a rare example of positive climate news, Congress passed the historic Inflation Reduction Act this summer. While very imperfect, the legislation allocates $369 billion in climate and energy provisions, a portion of which will be distributed at the state level for clean energy and climate resilience projects.These momentous climate events provided moderators at Senate debates in 2022 with an obvious opportunity to lead the candidates into meaningful exchanges on climate, energy, and related issues. Far too many moderators ignored this opportunity — even in the face of an ongoing climate-fueled crisis that is affecting dozens of states. The only debate that Media Matters monitored that included a discussion of climate change was the New Hampshire Senate debate on October 27, when New Hampshire Bulletin's energy and environment reporter Amanda Gokee led the candidates into discussions about climate and environmental regulation.
The Nation’s Youngest Voters Put Their Stamp on the Midterms, with Climate Change Top of Mind - Maxwell Alejandro Frost, a 25-year-old community organizer, has become the first member of Generation Z elected to Congress after winning a House seat in Florida’s 10th Congressional District. The young Democrat’s victory came as his generation was also getting credit for helping to stop a red wave of Republican victories in Tuesday’s national midterm elections.This historic win in the Orlando-area district will do more than just bring down the average age of a House member, which is currently 58. It will also highlight the importance of two issues credited with motivating Gen Z voters to turn out: gun violence and climate change. In an interview with iGen Politics in October, Frost said that the climate crisis is one of the reasons he decided to run for Congress. He spoke about experiencing Hurricane Ian, a monstrous Category 4 storm that slammed into Florida’s southwest coast on Sept. 28, killing more than 100 people in the state. In the morning before the interview, he worked to distribute donated food and supplies to families displaced by the catastrophic storm. “We didn’t cause the hurricane but science tells us that we are contributing to these more devastating effects,” he said then. “And so, the cost of not doing anything is far greater than the cost of taking bold action and this is one of the reasons why I decided to run for Congress.” In election after election, climate change, or more broadly, the environment, has failed to become a decisive factor in races for Congress or the presidency. But that may be changing as climate change, according to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, has become nothing less than “a code red for humanity”—and the political dynamics around climate in the 2022 midterms could stand out as a milestone.Frost represents a generational shift in a national political landscape where a segment of voters is emerging to make climate change a bigger factor, experts said Wednesday.Exit polling suggests that young voters aged 18 to 29, many of whom likely factored climate change among their top concerns, stood in the breach of a Republican red wave that never materialized. Nationally, about one in eight voters was between 18 and 29, and two-thirds of them voted for the Democrats, according to an NBC News exit poll.Control of Congress still narrowly hangs in the balance.But Gen Z voters, born after 1996 and now at least 25 years old, appear to have been among a young adult cohort that saved Democrats from what could have been a much worse outcome, based on historical voting patterns during midterms after a presidential election, and depending on final vote counts, could potentially save Democrats’ congressional majorities.“We see big vote margins by young voters, especially in really close races, being a difference maker,” said Alberto Medina, who oversees communications for the Tufts University Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. “We think this is emblematic of the different ways that young people are leveraging their political power and civic engagement in recent years,” he said.
Manchin unloads on Biden over coal plant comments -Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin unleashed a broadside against President Joe Biden this weekend over the commander-in-chief’s comments on coal — an unprecedented intraparty attack just days before the midterm elections that will determine whether the Democrats continue to control Congress. “President Biden’s comments are not only outrageous and divorced from reality, they ignore the severe economic pain the American people are feeling because of rising energy costs,” Manchin, of West Virginia, said in a statement Saturday. “Comments like these are the reason the American people are losing trust in President Biden.” The chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee was responding to remarks Biden made on Friday in Carlsbad, Calif., where he touted his administration’s promotion of clean energy and the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Noting it was “now cheaper to generate electricity from wind and solar than it is from coal and oil,” Biden observed that “no one is building new coal plants” anymore. “We’re going to be shutting these plans down all across the America,” Biden continued, and replacing them with “wind and solar.” Manchin, whose state’s economy relies heavily on mining and coal-fired power, eviscerated the president over his comments in deeply personal terms. “It seems his positions change depending on the audience and the politics of the day,” Manchin said. “Let me be clear, this is something the President has never said to me. Being cavalier about the loss of coal jobs for men and women in West Virginia and across the country who literally put their lives on the line to help build and power this country is offensive and disgusting.” The senator demanded Biden offer “an immediate and public apology.” Biden’s press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, said Biden’s “remarks yesterday have been twisted to suggest a meaning that was not intended: he regrets it if anyone hearing those remarks took offense.” Jean-Pierre said Biden was “commenting on a fact of economics and technology: as it has been from its earliest days as an energy superpower, America is once again in the midst of an energy transition.” She also noted that while Biden was working to “combat climate change and increase our energy security by producing clean and efficient American energy … oil and natural gas production has increased” during the first two years of his presidency. “No one will be left behind,” Jean-Pierre added.
Manchin FERC shake-up may stymie Biden’s clean energy plans - - The prospect of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chair Richard Glick losing his job by year’s end could derail policies critical for President Joe Biden’s clean energy and climate agenda.Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin is “not comfortable” holding a hearing for Glick, Manchin spokesperson Sam Runyon said Thursday, effectively killing the chairman’s chances of staying on the regulatory panel (Greenwire, Nov. 10).Glick, a Democrat who joined FERC in 2017, had been nominated by Biden to lead the agency for another four years, pending approval by the Senate. His departure would mean that Democrats lose their majority on the five-person commission.Glick has advanced a slew of regulatory changes seen as key for adding more solar, wind and batteries to the nation’s power grid. But his efforts to establish a more climate-focused process for reviewing natural gas pipeline projects had been criticized by Republicans and Manchin, a moderate Democrat from natural gas-rich West Virginia.“It’s disappointing,” said Gregory Wetstone, CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy. “Certainly our hope is that Chairman Manchin will reconsider.”While Glick’s term at FERC expired in June, he is allowed by law to stay at the helm of the commission through the end of this year. In an interview, he said he had spoken to Manchin’s team Wednesday evening and was told “nothing different” from what has been reported already.“We’ll see what happens,” Glick said. “I worry about the things I can control. The things I can’t control, I don’t worry about.”FERC’s authority extends across much of the energy sector. The commission oversees the reliable operation of the bulk power system, permits large natural gas pipelines, and monitors and investigates energy markets, among other roles. Glick’s departure would leave FERC with two Democratic and two Republican commissioners. Although many of FERC’s decisions have bipartisan support, the dynamic could make it harder for the commissioners to advance certain policies and orders affecting transmission, clean energy, pipelines and energy markets.
Biden: Federal suppliers must work to meet Paris climate goals - The Biden administration on Thursday will propose requiring all major federal contractors to set targets for reducing their emissions in line with the 2015 Paris climate accord, a significant step toward greening the government’s sprawling operations and one that could ripple across the U.S. supply chain.The proposed rule, which comes as leaders from nearly 200 nations converge at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Egypt, would also mandate that federal contractors publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions and the risks they face from climate change.The U.S. government is the world’s largest buyer of goods and services, purchasing more than $630 billion in the last fiscal year alone. President Biden has previously called for the government to become carbon-neutral by 2050, in part by creating a federal fleet of electric vehicles and buying clean electricity for federal buildings.Speaking to reporters Thursday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden will arrive at the talks Friday “with historic momentum on climate thanks to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and other significant steps that put us on an enduring path towards meeting our ambitions and clean energy goals.”“While he’s on the ground, he’ll speak to his personal commitment to addressing the climate crisis,” Sullivan added. “He’ll highlight some of the progress the United States has made, both here at home and in rallying action on climate around the world. And he’ll underscore the need to go further, faster to help the most vulnerable communities build their resilience without losing sight of the need for the world and particularly for the major economies to cut emissions drastically. in this decisive decade.”The administration plans to highlight the proposal during Biden’s visit to the U.N. summit, as well as during a Saturday event there featuring Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, and Ali Zaidi, the White House national climate adviser. “As the world’s largest purchaser of goods and services, the Federal government has a critical opportunity to leverage its spending power to help reduce climate risks and safeguard taxpayer dollars,” Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young said in a statement. “This new proposed rule is an important step forward that will help us achieve our ambitious climate goals, promote efficiency, and increase the resilience of federal supply chains.”On Friday, the Biden administration will also issue a long-awaited proposal on limiting emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, from U.S. oil and gas operations, according to an individual familiar with the plan who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the details. The Environmental Protection Agency will offer oil and gas companies more flexibility in how they monitor their wells for methane emissions, this person said, allowing flyover inspections with sensors that have become popular in the industry to count toward new monitoring requirements.The rule would allow companies that fly drones or planes with methane-detection technology over their oil and gas fields at least every other month to limit more arduous on-the-ground inspections to once a year. It would also grant further leniency to companies that use constant-monitoring systems, often deployed in conjunction with independent certification programs, under a sliding-scale system that aims to enable industry to use developing technology to do more efficient monitoring.
Pelosi accuses Republicans of treating climate crisis like ‘it’s all a hoax’ at Cop27 - Nancy Pelosi has accused Republicans of treating the climate crisis like “it’s all a hoax” while at the Cop27 climate talks in Egypt, where the US delegation is attempting to remain upbeat about continued progress on dealing with global heating despite uncertainty over the midterm election results. Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives, made a surprise appearance at the climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh on Thursday. The trip may be one of Pelosi’s last as speaker, with most forecasts predicting Republicans will eke out a narrow majority in the House. There has been “shall we say, a disagreement on the subject” of the climate crisis between the parties, Pelosi said at Cop27, adding that Republicans have said “‘Why are we having this discussion? There is no climate crisis. It’s all a hoax.’ We have to get over that. This is urgent, long overdue. “So we cannot just have any political disagreement or the power of the fossil fuel industry cramping our style as we go forward with this, but to show a path that gets us to where we need to be,” Pelosi said. Pelosi’s appearance at Cop27 comes at a critical point for the future of democracy in the US and the future of the planet. Joe Biden was able to pass the country’s most significant piece of climate legislation this year because Democrats have the majority in both the House and the Senate. With that set to change, the mounting anger at the US for obstructing meaningful global climate action, despite being the world’s largest polluter and richest country, may only get worse. Kathy Castor, a Democrat from Florida who chairs the House subcommittee on the climate crisis, predicted Republicans would axe her committee should they gain power. “They have not really been partners in tackling the climate crisis, and it’s inexplicable because the world’s top scientists tell us we are running out of time,” Castor said.
Biden’s COP27 Climate Message Might Not Be the One the World Wants - — When President Biden walks into the United Nations climate summit here on Friday, he could fairly boast of returning the United States to the global fight to keep the planet from dangerously overheating, and of turbocharging America’s move away from fossil fuels.But instead of being hailed as a president who passed a landmark climate law, Mr. Biden will join a gathering where developing nations have spent all week excoriating the United States and other industrialized nations for causing climate change and demanding reparations — a call that some European leaders have begun to answer with monetary pledges, squeezing Mr. Biden to do the same.President Emmanuel Macron of France said that Europe was already helping poorer countries, and that other Western nations needed to do more. “Europeans are paying,” he said. “We are the only ones paying.”“Pressure must be put on rich non-European countries, telling them, ‘You have to pay your fair share,’” Mr. Macron said, in a not-too-veiled reference to the Americans.But with control of Congress still unclear after Tuesday’s midterm elections, there is little Mr. Biden can offer. If Republicans are in charge come January, there will be less money, not more, to help foreign nations cope with climate change, as well as fresh efforts to slow down or block the president’s climate agenda.And even with Democrats in the majority on Capitol Hill, Mr. Biden has failed to make good on an earlier promise by the United States to contribute to a fund to help poor nations that are struggling from a barrage of floods, fires, drought and heat waves for which they are ill-prepared and have done little to cause.In 2021, Mr. Biden pledged $11.4 billion annually by 2024; last year, he secured just $1 billion toward that goal from a Congress controlled by Democrats.While many countries appreciate Mr. Biden’s effort, some view it as inadequate, said Rachel Kyte, dean of the Fletcher School of Diplomacy at Tufts University. “You hear the language from developing countries and it’s like a sharp knife,” she said. “I hear African leaders say: ‘We’ve always understood the Congress is difficult. But do the American people not understand what’s happening to the planet?’” Mr. Biden is the only leader of a major polluting country to attend the climate talks in Egypt — President Xi Jinping of China, President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India all stayed away.
Status of the Social Security Trust Fund, Income and Outgo: Fiscal 2022 by Wolf Richter -The balance in the Social Security Trust Fund – technically known as “Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund” – declined by 1.2% during the US government fiscal year through September 30, to $2.72 trillion, according to figures released by the Social Security Administration. In the prior year, the balance had dropped 2.0%; in 2018, the balance had dropped by 0.8%. Those were the only three fiscal-year declines in the fund balance since 1987. Despite those declines, since 2010, the balance of the fund has risen by 12.1%. These figures to not include the Disability Insurance Trust Fund, which by law is a separate entity from the OASI Trust Fund, and is not part of this discussion here. The OASI Trust Fund invests in Treasury securities and short-term cash management securities. These securities are not traded in the secondary market, similar to the I Bonds that many readers here have at TreasuryDirect.gov. The fact that securities in the Trust Fund are not subject to the whims of the secondary market is a good thing: The value of these holdings – similar to the value of our accounts at TreasuryDirect – doesn’t fluctuate from day to day with the whims of the secondary market. Because the Trust Fund holds Treasury securities until they mature (when it gets paid face value), the day-to-day price fluctuations are irrelevant, similar to our holdings at TreasuryDirect. At the end of the fiscal year, the Trust Fund held $2.66 trillion in interest-bearing long-term special issue Treasury securities and $57 billion in short-term cash-management securities, called “certificates of indebtedness.” Because these securities are not traded in the secondary market, their value equals the face value at all times, which is the amount that the Fund paid for them when it invested in them, and the amount it will be paid at maturity by the US Treasury Department. The strategy of investing in Treasury securities and holding them until they mature is a low-risk conservative strategy that essentially eliminates credit risk. This allows the Fund to operate with ultra-low administrative expenses, amounting to just 0.14% of the assets in the fund. Interest income crushed by Fed’s interest rate repression. In the fiscal year, the Fund earned $65.1 billion in interest on its Treasury security holdings. This interest income was 40% lower than in 2010, the year of peak interest, though the Fund balance was much lower at the time. The long-term securities it held were paying much higher interest rates than the new long-term securities that replaced them when they matured during the era of the Fed’s interest rate repression. Retirees counting on their fixed income investments, such as CDs and bonds, for their supplemental cash flow have seen an even worse devastation of their cash-flows following the Fed’s interest rate repression that started in 2008. Total income from all sources (green line in the chart below) jumped by $105 billion from the prior year, to a record $1.04 trillion in the fiscal year ended in September because more people were working and they were earning higher wages and contributing more than during the pandemic year: Contributions jumped by $98 billion to a record $929 billion. Interest income fell by $5 billion to $65 billion (see chart above). Taxation of benefits rose by $13 billion to $47 billion. Total outgo rose by $82 billion to $1.07 trillion (red line). Nearly all of it was in form of benefits paid. The deficit (total income minus total outgo) of the fund narrowed to $32 billion, down from $55 billion in the prior year. When the green line (total income) was above the red line (total outgo), the Fund accumulated assets. When the green line fell below the red line, the Fund shrank:
Federal judge strikes down Biden student debt relief program -A federal judge struck down President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program on Thursday, declaring it unlawful. District Judge Mark Pittman, a Trump appointee, ruled that the program, which would have provided borrowers with up to $20,000 in student loan relief, was “an unconstitutional exercise of Congress’s legislative power.” The Biden administration has argued that it has authority to forgive student loans under the Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students Act of 2003. However, Pittman rejected this argument on Thursday, finding no “clear congressional authorization” for the program. The ruling comes in response to a lawsuit filed in October by the Job Creators Network Foundation, a conservative advocacy group, on the behalf of one borrower who is ineligible for the relief program and another who is not eligible for the full $20,000. The group argued that the Department of Education had failed to allow for public notice and comment on the program and that the agency generally lacked the authority to forgive student loans under the HEROES Act. As an agency, the Department of Education technically receives its authority to make rules from Congress. Since the issue of student loan forgiveness is of vast “economic and political significance,” Pittman found that the agency is required to show that it has a clear authorization from Congress for the program, which he ruled it did not. “Whether the Program constitutes good public policy is not the role of this Court to determine,” Pittman said in the ruling. “Still, no one can plausibly deny that it is either one of the largest delegations of legislative power to the executive branch, or one of the largest exercises of legislative power without congressional authority in the history of the United States.” Thursday’s ruling represents the biggest victory thus far for conservative opponents of the Biden administration’s debt relief program. A federal appeals court temporarily put the program on hold in late October following a challenge from six GOP-led states. However, the appeals court ruling only blocked the program while the states’ appeal played out and did not strike down the program outright. Biden’s debt relief program would forgive up to $10,000 in student loans for borrowers who make under $125,000 and up to $20,000 for those who received Pell Grants.
Biden's student loan forgiveness plan ruled unlawful --A federal judge in Texas struck down the Biden administration's sweeping student loan forgiveness plan, calling it "one of the largest exercises of legislative power without congressional authority in the history of the United States." U.S. District Judge Mark Pittman, an appointee of President Donald Trump, sided with two borrowers in Texas who argued the government violated federal administrative procedure in implementing the plan. "In this country, we are not ruled by an all-powerful executive with a pen and a phone," Pittman wrote in an order declaring the policy unlawful. "Instead, we are ruled by a Constitution that provides for three distinct and independent branches of government." The loan forgiveness plan is already on hold under an emergency stay from the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in a separate lawsuit brought by six Republican-led states. The plan has drawn a litany of legal challenges since its inception, several of which have been dismissed for lack of standing. The Justice Department said it would appeal the decision. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the administration strongly disagreed with the ruling. "The president and this administration are determined to help working and middle-class Americans get back on their feet, while our opponents — backed by extreme Republican special interests — sued to block millions of Americans from getting much-needed relief," Jean-Pierre said in a statement. "We will never stop fighting for hardworking Americans most in need — no matter how many roadblocks our opponents and special interests try to put in our way." Pittman's order Thursday was issued in a lawsuit brought by the Job Creators Network Foundation, a conservative advocacy group, on behalf of two Texans who claim that their education debt was unfairly excluded from the program. Maya Brown and Alexander Taylor both hold debt that is not eligible for the full scope of forgiveness under the plan, and they claimed that the Biden administration made arbitrary decisions on loan forgiveness eligibility and didn't allow an opportunity for public comment on the proposal.
Student Debt Relief Applications Halted After Court Ruling -- The US Department of Education stopped accepting applications for student loan forgiveness after a federal court ruled Thursday that President Joe Biden’s plan is unlawful. A website where individuals can apply to receive as much as $20,000 in relief displayed a notice Friday that the program is blocked because of the legal challenges.
5.5 Million Illegal Aliens Crossed US Border Since Biden Took Office: Report -- The total number of people who have entered the United States illegally since President Joe Biden took office has climbed to 5.5 million, according to the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR). Dan Stein, president of FAIR, shared the stark number during a recent interview on NTD’s “Capitol Report” program, which followed a recent announcement by the Biden administration that nearly 2.8 million illegal border crossers were stopped in the fiscal year ended in September, a record high. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) disclosed the figures in a recent operational update that brought the total official number of illegal border crossers to around 4.4 million since Biden took office. Stein said FAIR arrived at the 5.5 million figure by adding to the 4.4 million an estimated 1.1 million who managed to evade capture and entered the United States undetected. “It’s pretty straightforward,” Stein said of the estimate. “There are typical projections that are confirmed by Census data of people who just run around—they call them ‘gotaways’—who enter without inspection, then disappear.” “If you look at the entire period, it’s about 5.5 million since Biden took office,” adding that FAIR projections estimate the cost to taxpayers to be $20 billion. Stein blamed the Biden administration for dismantling Trump-era “deterrence strategies” along the border for the surge. The White House did not immediately return a request for comment on the figures Stein cited.
Americans Moving To Mexico At Record Pace - Up 85% Since Pre-Covid - -Americans are moving to Mexico at the highest pace since the stats first became available in 2010 -- with requests for temporary-resident status skyrocketing 85% above 2019 levels. Mexico granted 8,412 such permits over the first three quarters of this year, compared to 4,550 in the same period of 2019. Over the same period, Mexican grants of permanent residency are up 48%, reaching 5,418. "What started off as a pandemic escape for Americans seeking affordable destinations with few Covid-19 restrictions seems to have staying power," reports Bloomberg. Chart via BloombergThis isn't just retirees looking for warm breezes and a low cost of living. The increase is also driven in part by the remote working trend, which the Mexican government has encouraged. Mexico makes it easy for Americans to work south of the border. A tourist visa lets you work there for up to six months, so long as you receive payment outside Mexico. Many Americans repeatedly extend that timeframe by simply returning to the United States and then re-entering Mexico on a new visa, restarting the 180-day clock. Given that framework, the temporary residence permits represent only a fraction of the actual number of Americans living indefinite stretches in Mexico. The US State Department puts the number at 1.6 million. Mexico City is the top destination, and that's a cause for controversy in the city that's more populous than New York and holds a whopping one-fifth of the country's entire population: "The rise in Americans staying longer troubles some locals concerned about the cost of living, especially in some of the historic neighborhoods that are their prime destinations in Mexico City. Social media is rife with complaints about the so-called digital nomads and their supposed impact on rising rents."-- BloombergThe Mexico City government, however, is embracing the influx of spenders with open arms. Last week, city officials announced an initiative with Airbnb to promote the city as a great place for remote workers.
Rep. Kevin McCarthy says Biden congratulated him, dismisses speculation he doesn't have enough votes to be speaker -- House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy said on Fox News that President Joe Biden congratulated him when they spoke on the phone Wednesday. “It was short. He just wanted to call me, congratulate from that point, talk about where we can work together. Look, I said, I will work with anybody that wants to put American first and move us in the right direction,” McCarthy said Thursday night. “He congratulated me, so for anyone who thinks we didn’t win the majority, Joe at least believes we did as well,” he said. CNN has not projected if the House will remain under Democrat control or flip to the Republicans. The White House confirmed Biden’s call with McCarthy on Wednesday but offered no details about the conversation. CNN has reached out to the White House to ask about McCarthy’s description of the call. McCarthy added that he used the conversation with Biden to lay out priorities for a Republican House majority, including energy independence and securing the border. “I laid this all out to the president and told him, ‘I will work with you if you are willing to work on these items,’” he said. McCarthy also dismissed speculation that he lacks enough support from the right wing of his caucus to become speaker. “I’m not concerned,” McCarthy said. “People can have input, we want to have a very open input process. We are going to have a smaller majority, so we’re going to find that we work together.”
Democrats jockeying for position as they await Speaker Pelosi's decision on House leadership -- House Democrats are eagerly awaiting word from Speaker Nancy Pelosi about whether she will continue to run the caucus she has dominated for the past two decades as they decide whether to run for the top job. Pelosi is widely expected to announce her decision once it is clear which party will have the majority in the House and after she returns from her trip to a climate conference in Egypt. That could come as soon as next week when the House returns to session, with members meeting Monday evening for the first time since the election and the full caucus on Tuesday. The leadership elections are scheduled for Nov. 30. If she steps aside, as most members believe she will, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is seen as the front-runner for the top position, though he could face a challenge from Rep. Adam Schiff and others. But all eyes are also on the two Democrats currently below Pelosi: Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn. Hoyer has long coveted the top position, but with many in the caucus calling for generational change and diversity in the ranks, the 83-year-old Hoyer could have a difficult time winning the votes. "I've told all the younger members, I'll be out of here by 2036," Hoyer told reporters when asked about his next moves. He indicated he would wait for the House to be called before announcing his next steps. Clyburn has recently signaled he wouldn't block Jeffries' ascension to the top spot, but he might want to stay in leadership, which could prevent other Democrats from ascending. Rep. Katherine Clark is seen as the frontrunner for the No. 2 job, depending on what Hoyer and Clyburn do.
Ousted Dem campaign chair blasts Ocasio-Cortez: ‘She had almost nothing to do’ with our wins - Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) — the House Democratic campaign chairman — slammed Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) on Thursday for blaming the party’s losses in New York on state Democratic leadership. “Let’s be clear, she had almost nothing to do with what turned out to be an historic defense of our majority,” Maloney told The New York Times. “Didn’t pay a dollar of dues. Didn’t do anything for our frontline candidates except give them money when they didn’t want it from her.” Ocasio-Cortez criticized New York Democratic Party leadership on Wednesday, after Tuesday’s midterm elections showed the state moving to the right. Republicans managed to flip four Democratic House seats in the Empire State, including Maloney’s seat. Ocasio-Cortez specifically called for the resignation of Jay Jacobs, the chair of the New York State Democratic Committee. However, Maloney hit back at the New York congresswoman, questioning her level of support in the midterms. “I didn’t see her one minute of these midterms helping our House majority,” he said. “So, I’m not sure what kind of advice she has, but I’m sure she’ll be generous with it.” Ocasio-Cortez responded on Thursday night, claiming that Maloney was ignoring her election efforts. “[Maloney] courted me for donations to swing races & it was the 1st thing I did this term,” she said on Twitter. “Over a quarter million for Dems this cycle, DCCC facilitated some & now he denies it. If he isn’t aware of my visit to CA & efforts we put in, that’s on him.”
Pence opens up on Trump and Jan. 6, GOP takes notice after dismal midterms -Former Vice President Mike Pence, long written off as a viable prospective candidate within the Republican Party after the attack of Jan. 6, 2021, has recaptured the party’s attention in the wake of Tuesday’s bruising midterm results.In an excerpt of his forthcoming memoir published in the Wall Street Journal, which ran not long after Election Day came to a close, Pence revealed a wealth of new details about his direct interactions with then-President Donald Trump in the weeks leading up to the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.The former vice president and potential 2024 contender unloaded at length for the first time. He wrote that in a meeting shortly after the 2020 presidential election, he counseled Trump to accept reality and prepare to run again in 2024, but that Trump sounded “weary.”Pence went on to say he received a phone call from Trump on New Year’s Day 2021, in which Trump pressured him to sign on to a push by congressional Republicans to overturn the election results. Pence said that was not within his power.“‘You’re too honest,’” Pence said Trump told him. “‘Hundreds of thousands are gonna hate your guts. ... People are gonna think you’re stupid.’”He also described a Jan. 4, 2021, meeting in the White House with Trump and his lawyer John Eastman in which Pence chipped away at Eastman’s arguments that a vice president has the authority to unilaterally overthrow election results, until the lawyer "stammered" in protest, “Well, it’s never been tested in courts, so I think it is an open question.”
Oath Keepers trial: Stewart Rhodes denies plan to attack the Capitol - Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes categorically denied any plan to attack the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and said Monday that his call for co-defendants to come to Washington armed and ready to “take matters into their own hands” if President Donald Trump failed to act was meant to inspire action only after he left office.The testimony by Rhodes, a former Army paratrooper and Yale Law School graduate, marked the climax of his seditious conspiracy trial with four others. All stand accused of participating in overlapping plots to use force to oppose the swearing-in of President Biden, obstruct Congress’s confirmation the 2020 election results and impede lawmakers from performing their official duties. Taking the extraordinary step of attempting to bolster his own defense by testifying, Rhodes challenged the Justice Department’s decision to charge him even though he did not enter the Capitol that day. Like Trump, Rhodes has sought to avoid criminal liability for egging on his followers, with prosecutors in Rhodes’s case alleging that he told others to be ready to resort to violence if necessary to keep Trump in power on Jan. 6.“It was not part of our mission that day, our plan, to enter the Capitol,” Rhodes testified under questioning by his attorney Phillip A. Linder. “It never even crossed my mind” that his members would, Rhodes said, adding that in his view anyone who “assaulted a police officer should be prosecuted for it.”Rhodes said that he was unaware Florida co-defendant Kelly Meggs led other Oath Keepers members “off-mission” into the building and that doing so was “stupid” because “it opened the door for our political enemies to persecute us”; he claimed he was not involved in defendants’ stockpiling of firearms nearby; he blamed girlfriend and Oath Keepers attorney Kellye SoRelle for ordering members under his name to delete evidence; and he asserted that he meant for any call to resist federal authority to apply after Biden took office, and not before the inauguration, to keep Trump in power. But federal prosecutor Kathryn L. Rakoczy led Rhodes through statement after statement, in public and in private, in which he urged Trump to call on the U.S. military and private militia to overturn the 2020 presidential election. His messages told Oath Keepers to be prepared to take up arms to keep Trump in power and emboldened co-conspirators who have pleaded guilty to act by saying they needed to show Trump “that if he fails to act, then we will.”“That’s what I wrote, but it’s not what I meant,” Rhodes ultimately conceded at one point during a grueling three-hour cross-examination.The contrast between Rhodes’s testimony on the stand and his past remarks was a recurring theme of government questioning, which threatened to make Rhodes and his defense regret their calculation that he was the witness best situated to explain his true state of mind to jurors. To convict these defendants, the jury must find that they entered into an agreement to “corruptly” obstruct Congress as it met to certify the election or to unleash political violence against the government.
Oath Keepers Leader Points Finger at Colleagues in Sedition Trial - Stewart Rhodes, the founder of the far-right militia, testified that he did not order anyone to go into the Capitol on Jan. 6 and that he had nothing to do with an armed force waiting nearby. — At the height of the chaos at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, two dozen members of the Oath Keepers militia met outside the building with their leader, Stewart Rhodes.When some of them reported that they had just come back from inside the Capitol, Mr. Rhodes was outraged, he testified in court on Monday. Taking the stand at his own sedition trial, he said that those who had gone inside the building that day had done so of their own accord — and that he had never had a plan or had given any orders to go in.“When I heard that they went in,” he told jury, “I said, ‘That was stupid.’”Testifying for a second day at the trial in Federal District Court in Washington, Mr. Rhodes sought to wash his hands of much of what the Oath Keepers did on Jan. 6, laying the blame on several of his colleagues.He told the jury that one of his co-defendants, Kelly Meggs, who went inside the Capitol with others in the group, had gone “off mission.”He also claimed — for the first time — that he had “nothing to do with” an armed “quick reaction force” made of up Oath Keepers that was staged in hotel rooms in Virginia, ostensibly to rush to the aid of compatriots if things at the Capitol went wrong.Mr. Rhodes has firmly denied there was a plan to break into the Capitol on Jan. 6 and disrupt the certification of the 2020 election, as the government has claimed. He has also argued that the Oath Keepers went to Washington that day on what he claims was a peaceful mission: to serve as bodyguards for pro-Trump celebrities like Ali Alexander, a Stop the Steal organizer, and Roger J. Stone Jr., a longtime adviser to Mr. Trump.It is rare for a defendant, especially one of his prominence, to take the witness stand, but Mr. Rhodes, who holds a law degree from Yale, has been visibly confident in putting forward several intersecting arguments.He spent much of the afternoon sparring with a prosecutor, Kathryn Rakoczy. Ms. Rakoczy’s questions seemed designed to both poke holes in the details of his account and to chip away at his broader credibility.Ms. Rakoczy started, for example, by suggesting that Mr. Rhodes had soft-pedaled the nature of the Oath Keepers during his first turn on the witness stand on Friday. She pointed out that while telling the jury about some of the missions the group had been involved in over the years, he had failed to mention several in which his members used weapons to confront government forces and challenge their authority.
Prosecutors press Rhodes on inflammatory messages to fellow Oath Keepers -- During cross-examination Monday in his trial on seditious conspiracy charges, Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes likened his militia group to the patriots who fought in the American Revolution.“We are finding ourselves in a situation similar to what the Founders found themselves in 1776,” Rhodes responded to questions from federal prosecutors about how the Oath Keepers’ role in the events surrounding the contested 2020 presidential election and protest led by then-President Donald Trump. “We were prepared to walk the Founders’ path.”Under questioning from his own defense lawyer, Phillip Linder, Rhodes testified that he believed the election results naming Joe Biden the winner of the November 2020 election were “invalid.” He also denied that he had instructed Oath Keeper members to participate in the riot at the Capitol that sought to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power from Trump to Biden.“I never had any plan or intention to have my guys try to prevent certification of election results,” Rhodes told the jury.During cross-examination, Kathryn Rakoczy, one of the federal prosecutors in the case, used messages sent by Rhodes to undercut the defendant’s claims. In a Jan. 10, 2021, message sent by Rhodes, he posited that if Trump was “not going to do the right thing,” meaning invoking the Insurrection Act to prevent Biden from taking office, and “he’s just going to let himself be removed illegally, then we should have brought rifles” to the Capitol.Rakoczy cited a statement Rhodes posted on the internet on Nov. 9, 2020, less than a week after the election. “We’re very much in exactly the same spot that the Founding Fathers were in like March 1775 ... and Patrick Henry was right,” the statement read. “Nothing left but to fight. And that’s true for us too. We’re not getting out of this without a fight. There’s going to be a fight. But let’s just do it smart and let’s do it while President Trump is still Commander in chief.”Weeks later, on Dec, 29, Rhodes wrote a message to Kellye SoRelle, an Oath Keeper lawyer and close companion. “I’ll turn my attention to what i need to do as the founder and leader of Oath Keepers to prepare for what comes after Trump fails to do his duty,” he wrote in the message shown to the jury by Rakoczy. “But most of my focus will be on presuming he won’t. And preparing for the worst.” Two days later, Rhodes issued another assessment that prosecutors say helped set the stage for the riot at the Capitol. “On the 6th they are going to put the final nail in the coffin of this Republic, unless we fight our way out. With Trump (Preferably) or without,” Rhodes wrote.
Key Question in Oath Keepers Sedition Trial: Was There a Plan on Jan. 6? - The New York Times In the past week or so, lawyers for Stewart Rhodes and four other members of the Oath Keepers militia have defended their clients against charges of sedition by hammering the same point to a jury: Many in the far-right group joined in the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, but nothing they did that day was part of a premeditated plan. That distinction might be minor, but the defense’s strategy in drawing it was meant to undermine the foundation of the government’s indictment. From the start of the trial, in Federal District Court in Washington, prosecutors have accused Mr. Rhodes and his subordinates of agreeing after the 2020 election to take part in a seditious plot to use force to disrupt the transfer of presidential power. As the proceeding moves toward its conclusion, perhaps as early as next week, the outcome may boil down to a single question: Will the jury convict the defendants of conspiracy even though there may not be definitive proof that the role they played in the Capitol attack was the culmination of a predetermined plan? Well before the trial began last month, the government had amassed a staggering trove of evidence about what Mr. Rhodes and his co-defendants — Kelly Meggs, Kenneth Harrelson, Jessica Watkins and Thomas Caldwell — had done in the weeks and months leading up to Jan. 6. Prosecutors had obtained tens of thousands of internal Oath Keepers text messages and conducted scores of interviews with members of the group or its associates. They even had an informant in the heart of Mr. Rhodes’s organization: Greg McWhirter, the Oath Keepers’ former vice president. Throughout much of 2020, Mr. McWhirter, then the No. 2 man in the group, was secretly reporting about Mr. Rhodes and others to the F.B.I. Much of this evidence was put to use during the government’s case at trial to establish Mr. Rhodes’s mind-set and motives in the post-election period. Prosecutors portrayed him as a man beset by fears that Joseph R. Biden Jr. was a “puppet” of the Chinese Communist Party. They suggested that the Oath Keepers, under his direction, were prepared to stop Mr. Biden from entering the White House, as one witness put it, “by any means necessary”
New York Times Still Burying the Truth on 'Russian Hack' - A loud guffaw at the pretentious slogan All the News That’s Fit to Print!Today marks a milestone (millstone?) for the New York Times. This morning it can smugly celebrate success in hiding for 30 months horse’s-mouth evidence putting the lie to its "Russia-gate" yarn that Russia hacked Democratic National Committee emails to help Donald Trump win in 2016. (The evidence was released on May 7, 2020; before that, Adam Schiff had been able to hide it for only 29 months.) The emails showed how the DNC had tipped the playing field against candidate Bernie Sanders for the nomination. Someone gave them to WikiLeaks , which posted them just days before the Democratic National Convention. Court testimony has now made it demonstrably clear that that "someone" was not Russia, but this has been kept out of the corporate media. Russian DNC-hacking was all a fake, and "important" people knew that five years ago, but have been able to suppress it. In an attempt to distract voters from details on how the Clinton campaign had severely disadvantaged Sanders, the Democrats and their co-travelers in the Deep State blamed the so-called "hack" on Russia. And court testimony over recent months has proved what many of us suspected; namely, that President Barack Obama, as well as candidate Hillary Clinton, were in it up to their ears. (More on the involvement of Obama and his lieutenants below.) Suffice it to remind that, in addition to distracting attention from the damning information in the emails, the hacking accusation dovetailed nicely with efforts already under way to (a) put Trump into "Putin’s pocket"; and (b) raise the specter of an aggressive Russia, in order to facilitate profiteering by the MICIMATT (Military-Industrial-Congressional-Media-Academia-Think-Tank) complex – always in need of a menacing enemy.Check with your neighbors. I’ll wager that 80 percent still believe the Russians hacked the DNC to help Trump win. Why is that? Well, the head of the House Intelligence Committee, Adam Schiff, in cooperation with the New York Times, has suppressed the truth for almost five, count them – 5 years. I gave the play-by-play on May 7, 2022 in Only If the News Fits, Do We Print writing on the 2nd anniversary of the NYT suppression of that key evidence, so I need not go into gory detail here. I’ll just draw from earlier work, and put it together with more recent revelations.
The Political Left's Reaction To Free Speech On Twitter Confirms Their Authoritarian Intent - We hear a lot these days from the political left about conservative and liberty minded ideals being a “threat to democracy,” and it's important to understand that leftists use the word “democracy” very deliberately and with specific intent. America has never been a pure democracy, and for good reason. Democracy is rule by the mob; it is 51% of society lording over the other 49%. It is tyranny of the majority. Leftists continue to use the word to describe our nation in bad faith, and they do this because it's what they want America to become. They don't care what America is or what it was meant to be, and this has been made clear in their reactions to various measures to bring balance and free speech back to the US after years of cancel culture controlled by far left extremists and their partnerships with Big Tech social media. When it comes to Twitter, many conservatives will suggest that they really never cared about the platform and that it never affected their view of the world. However, it cannot be denied that for at least the past six years Twitter has been a launch pad for malicious leftist organization and large scale attacks on individuals in order to silence those who dare disagree with their ideology. They have used Twitter as a weapon to strike fear into people before the even think of speaking out. This organization has included collusion between journalists, activists, corporate CEOs and governments, and while these people represent a minority within our society they wield enough money and power to manufacture an artificial consensus. They have had the power to silence opposition and make it appear as if the leftist narrative is the only narrative. Twitter has been the bane of American life for far too long. The original management of Twitter, based out of San Francisco, has often held that there was no political bias inherent in the company and that everyone was treated fairly. We have seen ample evidence that this was simply not the case, with the tech giant now exposed for working closely with the federal government (DHS) and the Biden Administration to actively erase the voices of people who opposed the unconstitutional covid mandates and vaccine passports (among other things). At the same time Twitter aggressively amplified the activities of leftist groups like BLM and Antifa, while consistently promoting the establishment narrative on almost every single domestic and geopolitical issue. The value of the company to the political left cannot be overstated. Twitter is their Mecca. Whether you like Elon Musk or distrust his intentions, the drama surrounding his takeover of the platform is quite revealing. Musk has made very few announcements of intent as far as Twitter is concerned, with his primary goal being freedom of speech, or at least equal treatment of users regardless of their political background. The response from leftists has been predictable but also somehow astonishing at the same time. We have seen the mainstream media froth in furious rage at the idea of Twitter becoming an open platform. Many have argued that Musk's takeover is a “threat to democracy” (there's that word again). Some have even insinuated that Musk is an authoritarian himself for trying to remove levels of censorship. The accusations are bizarre and Orwellian - For leftists “freedom is slavery.”Musk is noted for attempting to appease some demands from the left and has only met with further attacks as well as actions to frighten away the company's advertisers. If leftists can't own the website they will seek to burn it down. Musk recently complained:“Twitter has had a massive drop in revenue, due to activist groups pressuring advertisers, even though nothing has changed with content moderation and we did everything we could to appease the activists. Extremely messed up! They are trying to destroy free speech in America.”
Twitter bankruptcy possible if cash burn doesn't stop, Musk tells employees -Elon Musk, in his first address to Twitter employees since purchasing the company for $44 billion, said that bankruptcy was a possibility if it doesn’t start generating more cash, according to people familiar with the matter.The warning came amid a tumultuous start to Musk’s reign at the social media company -- a two-week period in which he has fired half of Twitter’s staff, ushered out most of the top executives and ordered the remaining employees to stop working from home. One executive who until Thursday had emerged as part of Musk’s new leadership team, Yoel Roth, departed, people familiar with the situation said. Another, Robin Wheeler, also resigned — but Musk persuaded her to stay on, said some of the people, who requested anonymity to protect personal and professional relationships.While the buyout has removed Twitter from the scrutiny of public markets, Musk loaded the company with almost $13 billion of debt that’s now in the hands of seven Wall Street banks that have been unable to offload it to investors.Confidence in the company has eroded so rapidly that, even before Musk’s bankruptcy comments, some funds were offering to buy the loans for as little as 60 cents on the dollar — a price typically reserved for companies deemed in financial distress, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.In his address to staff, Musk issued multiple dour warnings. Employees should brace for 80-hour work weeks. There will be fewer office perks like free food. And he ended the pandemic-era flexibility that allowed employees to work from home.“If you don’t want to come, resignation accepted,” he said, according to a person familiar with the matter.When he was asked about the prospect of attrition, Musk said, “We all need to be more hardcore.”In discussing Twitter’s finances and future, Musk said the company needed to move with urgency to make its $8 subscription product, Twitter Blue, something users will want to pay for, given a pullback by advertisers who are concerned about harmful content.Musk has in the past used the threat of financial ruin in an attempt to motivate workers, according to a person familiar with his management style. He’s trying to convey the notion that if people don’t work hard, Twitter will be left in a very difficult spot, this person said. He also hinted at products he’d like to introduce, including payments, ads that are more conversational and interest-bearing checking accounts.Onboarding to the Twitter app should be smoother, as is the case with TikTok, he said. Earlier Thursday, Twitter’s chief information security officer, chief privacy officer and chief compliance officer departed, raising concerns about the company’s ability to keep its platform secure and comply with regulations. Twitter is currently bound by a consent decree with the Federal Trade Commission that regulates how the company handles user data, and could be subject to fines for violations. The debt Twitter took on to finance Musk’s buyout is leaving it with interest costs that, by one estimate, will surge to $1.2 billion a year. The social network has seen a pullback from some advertisers that are concerned about Musk’s plans for content moderation. Debt investors and credit raters are also showing little confidence. The company’s banks have been quietly sounding out hedge funds and other asset managers for their interest in buying a chunk of the company’s debt.
Two key banking policymakers win elections; other races remain toss-ups -Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina — Republican heirs apparent to leadership positions on the congressional banking committees — handily won reelection, according to the Associated Press, but other closely watched races remained uncalled Tuesday night.McHenry, the ranking Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, won with 73% of the vote. McHenry is widely expected to be tapped as committee chair if Republicans take the House gavel, as appears increasingly likely.Scott — who is widely expected to take over as top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, a post held by the retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa. — also easily won reelection with a reported 62% of the vote Tuesday night, though many ballots remain uncounted.Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. — who is widely expected to take over as top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee— was cruising to victory late Tuesday.House Financial Services panel Chair Maxine Waters's race remained undecided Tuesday night, but the California Democrat's seat, like McHenry's, is not closely contested. Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, is not up for reelection this year.But the outcomes of races that many in the banking industry have been watching most closely remained far less certain. Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Georgia Democrat who sits on the Banking Committee, is in a neck-and-neck race for reelection against Republican challenger Herschel Walker. Warnock's tenure on the committee has concentrated largely on consumer protection issues, and he has chaired the subcommittee on financial institutions and consumer protection. Rep. Patrick McHenry, the ranking Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, was declared the winner in his North Carolina district on Tuesday.Warnock signed on to Brown's Fair Access to Financial Services Act that would prohibit banks and other financial institutions from discriminating against customers because of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, gender identity or sexual orientation, and pushed the heads of the largest banks to curb overdraft fees. Warnock also chairs the agriculture subcommittee on commodities, risk management and trade, an influential seat in financial policy. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., who is also a Banking Committee member, was likewise undecided as of Tuesday night. She touted her role in passing pandemic-era spending bills that helped Nevada's tourism industry throughout the economic shutdowns, and has highlighted the role she played as Nevada attorney general when the state received a $1.9 billion settlement from banks after the 2008 financial crisis. She characterizes the payment on her website as having "held the Big Banks accountable."
Welcome to Election Day from Hell: Run on a Major Crypto Exchange; Hurricane Forecasted to Hit Third Most Populous State; Billionaires Behaving Badly - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens - Everything crazy and corrupt and Orwellian about life in the United States in this era of corporate and billionaire control feels like it is coming to a head today – for better or worse.Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, who has sluiced tens of millions of dollars into this year’s elections (hoping to make crypto more dangerous than it already is) is today watching a major run on his crypto exchange, FTX. According to analytics firm, Nansen, in the past 24 hours FTX has witnessed an outflow of $653 million.Reuters reports the problem like this:“Crypto enthusiasts had raised questions on Twitter last week about FTX’s token, following a report from crypto news website CoinDesk about a leaked balance sheet from Alameda Research, a crypto trading firm founded by Bankman-Fried that maintains close ties with FTX.“According to CoinDesk’s report, much of Alameda’s $14.6 billion in assets are held in FTX’s token, which is called FTT. Reuters was unable to independently verify the accuracy of the report or the origin of the leaked balance sheet.”Those rumors led to Changpeng Zhao, the founder of competing crypto exchange, Binance, dumping the FTT token and Tweeting about it. As of 7:17 a.m. ET this morning, the FTT token had lost 22.6 percent of its value in the past 24 hours.For a quick course in everything you need to know about crypto, see our report: Over 1,600 of the Brightest Scientific Minds in Technology Have Signed a Letter Calling Both Crypto and Blockchain a Sham. Despite this, crypto billionaires are still allowed to infuse their ill-gotten gains into U.S. elections and put their sycophants in Congress.Then there is the forecast that Subtropical Storm Nicole may become a hurricane and hit Florida’s heavily populated East Coast sometime within the next 24 to 48 hours. This news comes as the folks on the Gulf Coast of Florida are still cleaning up from the devastating effects of Hurricane Ian. This latest news may impact voter turnout in Florida, the third most populous state in the U.S., as people have to choose between putting up hurricane shutters or going to the polls.Donald Trump won Florida in the 2020 presidential election – despite the fact that the state is heavily impacted by climate change and Trump removed the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord on June 1, 2017, after barely four months in office. Trump was following the demands of a Koch Industries fossil fuels front group, Freedom Partners, which provided the Trump administration with a list of environmental regulations it wanted gutted. Why did Koch want to gut environmental regulations? Koch Industries has been serially charged, including a criminal conviction, with dangerously polluting the environment. On January 13, 2000, the Justice Department and the EPA announced the largest civil fine ever imposed against Koch Industries to resolve claims related to its “more than 300 oil spills from its pipelines and oil facilities in six states.” The company agreed to pay a $30 million civil penalty and spend $5 million on environmental projects.Koch Industries is headed by a billionaire, Charles Koch, who has notoriously set up front groups to get his way in Congress for the past forty years. He’s also branched out to getting his way on the U.S. Supreme Court.Another U.S. billionaire behaving badly is Elon Musk, who just chaotically fired half of Twitter’s staff after taking the company private last week. Musk is also Chief Executive Officer of Tesla, the electric car manufacturer which has a Code of Business Ethics which Musk violates on a regular basis with seeming impunity from the publicly-traded company’s Board of Directors (one of the Board members is his brother, Kimbal Musk).
U.S. probes FTX empire over handling of client funds and lending -- U.S. financial regulators are investigating whether the beleaguered crypto exchange FTX.com properly handled customer funds, as well as its relationship with other parts of Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto empire, according to people familiar with the matter.The inquiries by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission relate to the liquidity crisis that has pushed FTX to the brink, according to three people familiar with the matter. The SEC's scrutiny started months ago as a probe into FTX US and its crypto-lending activities, said two of the people, who who weren't authorized to speak publicly on the matter.FTX's turmoil led to a tentative rescue offer by rival exchange Binance Holdings Ltd., which now may balk as the scope of FTX's distress becomes more apparent. American regulators are also looking into the platform's relationship with its American counterpart FTX US and Bankman-Fried's trading house Alameda Research, two of the people said. Representatives for the SEC and Binance declined to comment. The CFTC, FTX and FTX US didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. The troubles at FTX.com follow high-profile collapses this year by crypto firms that have prompted calls for more U.S. regulation. Although various Washington agencies claim some turf, questions over who should oversee trading platforms continue to swirl. The CFTC's jurisdiction over crypto is generally limited to derivatives, but the agency can take enforcement action if it believes there's fraud or manipulation in the underlying market. The SEC claims oversight over digital coins that qualify as securities under its rules. Both regulators also oversee investment firms. In recent days, the regulators have asked for details about the ownership structure of FTX US and FTX.com, which caters to non-American clients, according to two of the people. Regulators are interested in any overlap between management and board structures, and the financial relationship between the two entities. The agencies have also asked for details on whether customer accounts were properly segregated and the composition of the investor base at FTX.com, said one of the people.SEC Chair Gary Gensler has repeatedly warned about risks associated with digital-asset exchanges. He has said that many platforms may be violating securities laws by offering unregistered securities to Americans, improperly providing loans, or even front-running their clients' trades. Gensler has also raised concerns that firms may be engaged in conflicting lines of business and suggested that they should potentially split up the different functions.
Emergency FTX buyout shows 'necessity of congressional action,' McHenry says - The recent drama around FTX shows that Congress should take action on developing a regulatory framework for crypto, said Rep. Patrick McHenry. The North Carolina Republican is the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, and is poised to take the gavel of the panel if Republicans win the House, as expected, in Tuesday's 2022 midterms. McHenry and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), the current chair of the committee, arenegotiating a bill on regulating stablecoins. McHenry's statement puts out a stronger signal that he will emphasize legislation that attempts to set up regulations around all kinds of digital assets. "For years, I have advocated for Congress to develop a clear regulatory framework for the digital asset ecosystem, including trading platforms," he said. "The recent events show the necessity of congressional action. It's imperative that Congress establish a framework that ensures Americans have adequate protections while also allowing innovation to thrive here in the U.S. I look forward to learning more from FTX and Binance in the coming days about these events and the steps they will take to protect customers during the transition." Earlier on Tuesday, Binance — the world's largest cryptocurrency trading platform — said it'smoving to acquire its rival, FTX. FTX has struggled to meet a surge of withdrawal requests in recent days as the crypto market continued its volatile streak, and the firm's finances unraveled into a liquidity crisis. The deal is particularly notable in Washington and on Election Day, as FTX Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried has become the second-largest Democratic donor in the country, and has repeatedly pushed on Capitol Hill for crypto regulation. "This afternoon, FTX asked for our help," Changpeng Zhao, Binance's founder, said on Twitter. He said that FTX was experiencing a "significant liquidity crunch" and noted that Binance still needs to conduct due diligence.
Cryptos Plunge, Contagion Sweeps Across DeFi: Trying to Go to Heaven Together, End Up Going to Heck Together? By Wolf Richter - So here we go again. Bitcoin has plunged into the $15,000 zip code, from $21,000 a couple of days ago, and from $68,000 a year ago. The FTX token, the native token of the Bahamas-based crypto exchange FTX, founded by Sam Bankman-Fried, has collapsed by 90% in two days. Cryptos across the board are getting crushed. FTX is in a solvency crisis. Users pulled out nearly all of the 20,000 Bitcoins (about $430 million at the time, now a lot less) of the Bahamas-based crypto exchange in just four days, according to Bloomberg, citing data from CryptoQuant. Yesterday, FTX has halted withdrawals of cryptos.Bankman-Fried also founded crypto-trading firm Alameda Research, and the whole mess became public a few days ago when CoinDesk reported that a quarter of the holdings of Alameda Research may be made up of the FTX token, which entered free-fall, which triggered the solvency crisis. The website of Alameda Research (https://www.alameda-research.com) has now been taken down.The SEC and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) are investigating whether crypto-exchange FTX.com mishandled customer funds, following the disclosures of a solvency crisis, according to Bloomberg, citing three people familiar with the matter.The SEC claims oversight over cryptos that it qualifies as securities. The CFTC, in terms of cryptos, can take enforcement action if it believes there’s fraud or manipulation in the market that underlies the derivatives, which it regulates. Both agencies oversee investment firms.Turns out, the SEC has been investigating FTX US and its crypto-lending activities for months, according to Bloomberg, citing two of the three people.They’re investigating the relationships of FTX.com has with its US counterpart FTX US and Alameda Research, according to Bloomberg, citing two sources. Bloomberg:In recent days, the regulators have asked for details about the ownership structure of FTX US and FTX.com, which caters to non-American clients, according to two of the people. Regulators are interested in any overlap between management and board structures, and the financial relationship between the two entities. The agencies have also asked for details on whether customer accounts were properly segregated and the composition of the investor base at FTX.com, said one of the people.Revelations of the scope of the investigations into FTX and Alameda Research come at the nick of time for Binance, the largest crypto exchange in the world, which had made a nonbinding offer to buy FTX to “help cover the liquidity crunch” and prevent further contagion into the DeFi space.But Binance offered to buy FTX at a price that would wipe out FTX investors including founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Softbank Vision Fund, Singapore wealth fund Temasek, and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.These investigations are throwing further doubts on Binance’s willingness to move forward with the deal.During the first hours of due diligence, Binance executives found a huge shortfall between liabilities and assets at FTX, possibly more than $6 billion, according to Bloomberg, citing a source.An immediate issue is the way FTX valued its own FTX token and whether it should have been marked at a lower price, the person told Bloomberg.The FTX token has plunged 90% in two days, after Binance co-founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao said that Binance would be liquidating its own holdings of the FTX token, valued at the time at $530 million, after it emerged that a quarter of Alameda Research’s holdings were composed of the FTX token.Binance owned $530 million of the native token of its competitor FTX, and after it found out that Bankman-Fried’s other company was also loaded with the FTX token, Binance gets cold feet?Turns out that the fundamental principal in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is that every firm must be deeply interconnected with other firms, each holding the other’s token, and lending to the other, and bidding up each other’s tokens, so that if one firm goes to heaven, they all go to heaven together – which they did – and when one firm goes to heck, they all go to heck together – which they’re now doing. Makes for very smooth and efficient contagion.They all hold each other’s tokens, and they all bid up each other’s tokens to mind-boggling levels amid gobbledygook theories of the new financial world, called DeFi, but now they want to sell each other these tokens, and prices collapse and exchanges, trading firms, and lenders go to heck?
Binance backs out of FTX rescue, citing finances, investigations -- Changpeng "CZ" Zhao walked away from his bailout for Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX.com almost as quickly as he offered a rescue. "Our hope was to be able to support FTX's customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help," Binance, the crypto exchange founded by Zhao, said in a statement.An FTX spokesperson declined to comment.It became evident in a matter of hours that rescuing FTX would be a tall order for Binance. Its executives found themselves staring into a financial black hole — a gap between liabilities and assets at FTX that's probably in the billions, and possibly more than $6 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter.On top of that, U.S. regulators are circling FTX, investigating whether the firm properly handled customer funds, as well as its relationship with other parts of Bankman-Fried's crypto empire, including his trading house Alameda Research, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.Zhao himself admitted there was no "master plan" to take over FTX. His about-face leaves the fate of the beleaguered exchange and its clients uncertain and sparked renewed concerns about contagion risks across the crypto industry. Digital assets tumbled anew, with Bitcoin falling below $16,000 after Binance's announcement."As a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged U.S. agency investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX.com," Binance said in the statement.For crypto investors, the stakes are high for what happens next. The downfall of Bankman-Fried, the industry's onetime 30-year-old wunderkind, has cast doubt about which institutions are safe in the still loosely regulated market.While Bankman-Fried is barely a billionaire anymore, Zhao remains the richest person in crypto, with a fortune estimated at $16.4 billion by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. But even Zhao hasn't been immune to tumbling crypto prices: His net worth peaked at $97 billion in January.Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong said Tuesday in a Bloomberg TV interview that if the deal with Binance fell through, it would likely mean FTX customers would take losses.
Sam Bankman "Fried" Nearly All Of His $16 Billion Fortune - Binance’s Changpeng Zhao appears to have cast the death blow on competitor FTX and its "billionaire" founder/CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried. Bankman-Fried's fall from grace has been one of the more stunning losses of net worth in recent history. Despite there likely being issues under the surface prior to Tuesday, a massive $6 billion in withdrawals forced the company into a liquidity crisis. Its FTT token then crashed before SBF reached out to nemisis Zhao at Binance for a bailout. The situation culminated in all of crypto crashing on Tuesday - including pulling down the entire stock market at points - and Bankman Fried losing a substantial portion of his net worth, according to Bloomberg. In fact, reports say he has lost 94% of his $16 billion fortune. His fortune was $26 billion at its peak, the report says, but the future of it all is now "in doubt". Now, in a eulogy out Tuesday afternoon, Bloomberg says his fortune "will be annihilated at the hands of his billionaire rival". Going down with the SBF ship are investors like Softbank's Vision Fund (of course), Temasek and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. which had $400 million invested in FTX at a $32 billion valuation. SBF had a 53% stake in FTX that was worth about $6.2 billion prior to the week's events. The other $7.4 billion of his fortune was tied up in Alameda Research, which now appears to be completely insolvent. Bloomberg's prognosis was bleak, to say the least: "The Bloomberg wealth index assumes existing FTX investors, including Bankman-Fried, will be completely wiped out by Binance’s bailout, and that the root of the exchange’s problems stemmed from Alameda. As a result, both FTX and Alameda are given a $1 value. "
Bankman-Fried resigns from FTX, puts empire in bankruptcy --Sam Bankman-Fried's digital-asset empire filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Delaware, capping a rapid downfall for the 30-year-old entrepreneur and onetime crypto king.More than 130 entities tied to FTX.com, FTX US and trading firm Alameda Research Ltd. were part of the filings, according to a Twitter statement Friday, with the Alameda petition alone listing assets and liabilities of at least $10 billion each. Chapter 11 bankruptcy lets a company continue operating while it works out a plan to repay creditors.Bankman-Fried resigned as chief executive officer of the FTX Group as part of the filings, and John J. Ray III was appointed to replace him, the statement said. Ray, a turnaround and restructuring expert, has previously served senior roles in bankruptcies including Enron."It's such an unfortunate, stunning, and shocking moment for the industry," Owen Lau, analyst at Oppenheimer, said by phone.Crisis quickly befell FTX this month after prices for the exchange's native crypto token, FTT, plummeted and users raced to withdraw their assets. Rival crypto exchange leader Changpeng "CZ" Zhao had earlier said he would sell some $529 million of coins due to "recent revelations that came to light," appearing to allude to a CoinDesk report that raised questions about Alameda's financial health.Crypto assets dropped on the news, with Bitcoin slumping as much as 8% before regaining some ground. Ether and smaller tokens also declined. Solana, which was backed by Alameda, tumbled 10%. FTX's implosion came almost exactly one year after Bitcoin peaked at around $69,000. BlockFi, a troubled crypto lender that received emergency financing from FTX US earlier this year, on Thursday said it will pause client withdrawals citing "a lack of clarity" over the status of Bankman-Fried's empire.Zhao's Binance Holdings tentatively agreed to buy FTX.com amid the exchange's liquidity crunch, but backed out of the deal following a short period of due diligence. Bankman-Fried then pivoted to hold talks for last-ditch financing, including with fellow crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun.Now U.S. authorities are investigating Bankman-Fried as well as FTX. His wealth, which stood at around $16 billion at the start of the week, has vanished along with the reputation of a crypto wunderkind who just recently was regarded as a savior of swathes of the industry.
Crypto is in chaos as FTX files for bankruptcy — In the space of a week, a 30-year-old entrepreneur once hailed as a modern-day J.P. Morgan watched his digital empire, including billions of his own fortune, evaporate in a death spiral that’s shaken the foundations of the trillion-dollar crypto industry. On Thursday, Sam Bankman-Fried issued a mea culpa: “I f**ked up,” he wrote in a lengthy Twitter thread, apologizing to investors and customers of FTX, the exchange platform he founded in 2019. By Friday morning, FTX said Bankman-Fried had resigned as CEO and that the firm was filing for bankruptcy. Failures are not uncommon in the murky, largely unregulated world of crypto, but FTX is not your average crypto startup. Its near-collapse this week represents a potential turning point for an industry that many critics say has been given a pass for far too long. So, what happened to FTX, and why is the entire crypto space freaking out about it? There are still a lot of uncertainties, but here’s what we know. Last week, the crypto news website CoinDesk published an article based on a leaked financial document from Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, Alameda Research. The report suggested that Alameda’s business rested on shaky financial footing. Namely, that the bulk of its assets are held in FTT, a digital token minted by Alameda’s sister firm, FTX. That was a red flag for investors, as the companies were, on paper at least, separate. Alameda’s disproportionate holdings of the token, however, suggested the two were much more closely linked. On Sunday, the CEO of Binance, FTX’s much larger rival, said his company was liquidating $580 million worth of FTX holdings. That set off a firestorm of draw downs that FTX didn’t have the cash to facilitate.By Monday, concerns about Alameda and FTX had bled into the broader crypto market. But Bankman-Fried was defiant, tweeting that FTX and its assets were “fine.” He also sparred with the CEO of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, whose tweet had fueled the run on FTX deposits. There was clearly bad blood between the two, which is why it shocked the industry when the pair announced a tentative deal Tuesday for Binance to bail out FTX. “This afternoon, FTX asked for our help,” Zhao tweeted that afternoon, noting that there was a “significant liquidity crunch” at the company and that Binance would have to conduct corporate due diligence before going forward with any deal. Almost immediately after getting a look at under the hood, though, Binance began to backtrack. Meanwhile, Bankman-Fried’s personal fortune also tumbled. According to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index, Bankman-Fried’s net worth cratered 94% in a single day, from more than $15 billion to just under $1 billion — the biggest one-day loss ever clocked by the index. On Wednesday, cryptocurrencies continued to slump as investor anxiety about the FTX bailout spread. Bitcoin and ether, the two most popular tokens, both hit their lowest level in two years. The selloff deepened after media reports emerged that Binance was leaning toward walking away from the deal. Sure enough, on Wednesday afternoon, Zhao tweeted a withering assessment of FTX’s problems: “In the beginning, our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help.” Binance was out. FTX’s best shot at a lifeline was gone. The full extent of FTX’s financial problems aren’t yet known, but multiple reports say the firm is facing an $8 billion shortfall. Without a quick infusion of equity, Bankman-Fried reportedly told investors Thursday, the firm was facing bankruptcy.Despite its reputation as a dependable, low-risk investment portal, FTX’s business appears to have been built on a complex, extremely risky kind of leveraged trading.Customers deposited their money to engage in crypto trading. But it appears that FTX instead took billions of dollars worth of that money and loaned it out to its sister firm, Alameda, to fund those high-risk bets, according to The Wall Street Journal. Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine put it another way: “FTX took its customers’ money and traded it for a pile of magic beans, and now the beans are worthless.”
Crypto sell-off resumes as week-long FTX saga ends in bankruptcy filing - Cryptocurrencies resumed their sell-off on Friday morning as FTX announced it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the U.S. Bitcoin fell 4% to $16,877.87, while ether lost 3.5% to $1,256.33, according to Coin Metrics. They're down 21% and 25%, respectively, for the week. Sam Bankman-Fried – the CEO of the company that became a so-called white knight for the industry, helping bring crypto to the masses through his relationships with high-profile celebrities, regulators and institutions in addition to his exchange product – has also resigned, according to a statement posted to FTX's Twitter account Friday. Loading chart... Investors are still monitoring the fallout of the three-year-old FTX and its sister company, the trading firm Alameda Research, still unclear on the extent of the damage that will spread to the rest of the market. FTX was valued at $32 billion during its last funding round. Some of the biggest names in finance — including SoftBank, BlackRock, Tiger Global, Thoma Bravo, Sequoia and Paradigm. "We are in the midst of another deleveraging event in the crypto ecosystem and it is so far having limited spillover to broader equity markets beyond sentiment, as crypto institutions lent to each other," Morgan Stanley analyst Sheena Shah said in a note Friday. "We expect another round of crypto QT" — or what the firm has previously described as the "crypto equivalent of quantitative tightening" — "with creditor exposures revealed in coming weeks," she added. "These creditors are currently selling crypto assets to cover risks, adding to volatility."
Crypto lender BlockFi suspends withdrawals in FTX contagion -- The crisis sparked by the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX crypto empire ensnared BlockFi, a troubled digital-asset lender once worth $3 billion but which has now limited activity on its platform. BlockFi on Twitter said it will pause client withdrawals, citing "a lack of clarity" over the status of onetime savior FTX US as well as the uncertainty afflicting FTX.com and sister trading house Alameda Research.The Jersey City, New Jersey-based company asked customers to refrain from depositing funds into their BlockFi wallets or interest accounts. In a second-quarter report, BlockFi said the platform's total deployable clients assets amounted to $3.9 billion.The developments at BlockFi underscore growing concerns about contagion from the toppling of crypto exchange FTX and trading house Alameda Research. Digital-asset lenders like BlockFi and Celsius Network, which is in bankruptcy, had already been buffeted by the rout in virtual coins over 2022.BlockFi was in the process of moving its assets to FTX for custody, according to a person familiar with the matter. The majority of BlockFi's assets had not been moved yet, the person added, asking not to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the matter.The crypto lender had given loans to Alameda Research, the person familiar said, without specifying an amount. The loans are overcollateralized with liquid assets — including Robinhood shares — but BlockFi is no longer certain about where the funding for its credit line with FTX US and the collateral for the Alameda loans came from, the person said, citing concerns that it could have originated with customer funds.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are looking into whether FTX.commishandled customer funds. Bankman-Fried is also being investigated by the SEC for potential violations of securities rules. FTX US earlier in the year offered BlockFi a major lifeline by providing a $400 million revolving credit facility in an agreement that came with the option to purchase the company.
U.S. Justice Department looking into FTX turmoil amid SEC probe - The Justice Department is looking into the turmoil surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX.com and the liquidity crisis that has pushed the firm to the brink, according to a person familiar with the matter. Officials from the Justice Department are working with Securities and Exchange Commission attorneys probing the matter, said the person. Representatives for the SEC and Justice Department declined to comment. A representative for FTX didn't immediately return a request for comment on the Justice Department interest, which was first reported by The Wall Street Journal. The scrutiny adds to mounting legal headaches in Washington for Bankman-Fried. The SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are investigating whether FTX.com mishandled customer funds, and the regulators are looking into the firm's relationships with other parts of his crypto empire. The initiation of inquiries does not necessarily mean that anyone will be accused of wrongdoing.
Crypto peaked a year ago — investors have lost more than $2 trillion since -- A year ago this week, investors were describing bitcoin as the future of money and ethereum as the world's most important developer tool. Non-fungible tokens were exploding, Coinbase was trading at a record and the NBA's Miami Heat was just into its first full season in the newly renamed FTX Arena. As it turns out, that was peak crypto. In the 12 months since bitcoin topped out at over $68,000, the two largest digital currencies have lost three-quarters of their value, collapsing alongside the riskiest tech stocks. The industry, once valued at roughly $3 trillion, now sits at around $900 billion. Rather than acting as a hedge against inflation, which is near a 40-year high, bitcoin has proven to be another speculative asset that bubbles up when the evangelists are behind it and plunges when enthusiasm melts and investors get scared. And the $135 million that FTX spent last year for a 19-year deal with the Heat? The crypto exchange with the naming rights is poised to land in the history books alongside another brand that once had its logo on a sports facility: Enron. In a blink this week, FTX sank from a $32 billion valuation all the way to bankruptcy as liquidity dried up, customers demanded withdrawals and rival exchange Binance ripped up its nonbinding agreement to buy the company. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried admitted on Thursday that he "f---ed up." On Friday, he stepped down as CEO. Whether crypto is forever doomed or will eventually rebound, as Talati expects, the 2022 bloodbath exposed the industry's many flaws and served as a reminder to investors and the public why financial regulation exists. Bankruptcies have come fast and furious since midyear, leaving clients with crypto accounts unable to access their funds, and in some cases scrapping to retrieve pennies on the dollar. Crypto was supposed to bring transparency. Transactions on the blockchain could all be tracked. We didn't need centralized institutions — banks — because we had digital ledgers to serve as the single source of truth. That narrative is gone. "Speaking for the bitcoiners, we feel like we're trapped in a dysfunctional relationship with crypto and we want out," [...] The downdraft started in late 2021. That's when inflation rates started to spike and sparked concern that the Federal Reserve would begin hiking borrowing costs when the calendar turned. Bitcoin tumbled 19% in December, as investors rotated into assets deemed safer in a tumultuous economy. The sell-off continued in January, with bitcoin falling 17% and ethereum plummeting 26%. David Marcus, former head of crypto at Facebook parent Meta , used a phrase that would soon enter the lexicon. "It's during crypto winters that the best entrepreneurs build the better companies," Marcus wrote in a Jan. 24 tweet. "This is the time again to focus on solving real problems vs. pumping tokens." The crypto winter didn't actually hit for a few months. The markets even briefly stabilized. Then, in May, stablecoins became officially unstable. A stablecoin is a type of digital currency designed to maintain a 1-to-1 peg with the U.S. dollar, acting as a sort of bank account for the crypto economy and offering a sound store of value, as opposed to the volatility experienced in bitcoin and other digital currencies. When TerraUSD, or UST, and its sister token called luna dove below the $1 mark, a different kind of panic set in. The peg had been broken. Confidence evaporated. More than $40 billion in wealth was wiped out in luna's collapse. Suddenly it was as if nothing in crypto was safe. The leading crypto currencies cratered, with bitcoin dropping 16% in a single week, putting it down by more than half from its peak six months earlier. On the macro front, inflation had shown no sign of easing, and the central bank remained committed to raising rates as much as would be required to slow the increase in consumer prices. In June, the bottom fell out. Lending platform Celsius paused withdrawals because of "extreme market conditions." Binance also halted withdrawals, while crypto lender BlockFi slashed 20% of its workforce after more than quintupling since the end of 2020.
With banking regulators on the sidelines, Congress eyes crypto legislation after FTX implosion --The stunning fall from grace of crypto firm FTX is prompting policymakers across Washington to consider how regulation of the broader cryptocurrency world could affect the financial system, including the safety and soundness of banks. Several lawmakers, including Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), chair of the Senate Banking Committee, have joined Rep. Pat McHenry (R-N.C.), ranking member of the House panel and its likely future chair, in calling for more scrutiny on crypto markets. The calls come after crypto exchange FTX lent billions of dollars worth of customer assets to fund risky bets by its affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research, according to The Wall Street Journal. That reportedly exacerbated a liquidity crisis at the company, which continues to unravel after rival Binance reneged on a tentative offer to bail it out. Waters, who's been working on a stablecoin bill with McHenry, called FTX's spiral the "latest example in a string of incidents involving the collapse of cryptocurrency companies and the impacts these failures have on consumers and investors." She echoed McHenry's previous statements that the event increases the urgency for lawmakers to pass legislation. "I've been working around the clock with Ranking Member Patrick McHenry to craft bipartisan legislation that establishes a federal framework for stablecoins in order to begin building the safeguards needed to protect customers' assets and insulate our financial markets from contagion," she said. "This week's news further highlights the urgent need for legislation." Brown called for U.S. regulators to investigate FTX's demise, and pointed to potential implications for the banking system, although he notably didn't join the chorus of legislators calling for Congress to come up with some kind of regulatory framework. "The recent collapse of FTX is a loud warning bell that cryptocurrencies can fail, and just like we saw with over-the-counter derivatives that led to a financial crisis, these failures can have a ripple effect on consumers and other parts of our financial system," Brown said. "The cryptocurrency market's continued turmoil is why we must think carefully about how to regulate cryptocurrencies and their role in our economy. It is crucial that our financial watchdogs look into what led to FTX's collapse so we can fully understand the misconduct and abuses that took place. I will continue to work with them to hold bad actors in crypto markets accountable. I'm committed to finding the best path forward to protect consumers and the stability of the U.S. markets and banking system."
CFPB cites fraud as No. 1 crypto complaint, signaling trouble ahead --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a timely report about crypto assets and skyrocketing consumer complaints about virtual currencies and tokens, an indication of problems ahead for the imploding cryptocurrency industry. The CFPB report, released Thursday morning, laid out in stark terms why consumers have difficulty obtaining any restitution for lost crypto funds. When consumers have been defrauded or had accounts hacked, they often have nowhere to turn for help. Consumers often have no way to identify the owners behind many crypto-asset addresses, the CFPB said."Bad actors are leveraging crypto-assets to perpetrate fraud on the public," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a press release accompanying the report. "Americans are also reporting transaction problems, frozen accounts, and lost savings when it comes to crypto-assets."The report comes on the heels of a recent rout in cryptocurrencies and follows the collapse of a major deal between rival cryptocurrency trading platforms Binance and FTX.com. The drama led Rep. Patrick McHenry this week to call for increased regulation of digital assets and cryptocurrency trading platforms. Businesses ranging from credit card providers to banks have pushed bitcoin and other virtual currencies into the mainstream by offering customers more options to buy, sell and make payments with digital assets. The CFPB stated that "price volatility" and adoption of crypto assets have increased in recent years. Most cryptocurrency exchanges are regulated at the state level through money transmission licenses but have little to no federal oversight. Though many crypto businesses are registered with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, many crypto skeptics claim they are not following anti-money-laundering rules issued by Fincen.Poor customer service was a common theme of complaints to the CFPB. Since many crypto-related businesses provide no customer service, the CFPB said that attackers often pretend to be a customer service representative to gain access to a customer's account. Fraud is vexing regulators as well, the CFPB implied in its commentary. "There are a number of techniques scammers use to obscure the movement of crypto assets to other accounts," the CFPB said in the press release. "This can make tracing crypto assets stolen by fraudsters more time consuming for regulators and law enforcement."The bureau said "hacks by malicious actors" have led to significant financial loss by consumers "with no recourse for recovering stolen funds." Chopra also cautioned that consumers "should be wary of anyone seeking upfront payment in crypto assets," noting that such solicitations "may be a scam."
Ex-Goldman banker arrested over alleged Ghana bribery scheme - Former Goldman Sachs Group banker Asante Berko was arrested on charges that he orchestrated bribes to Ghanaian officials while employed at the investment bank. A six-count August 2020 indictment unsealed last week in federal court in Brooklyn, New York, accuses Berko of conspiring with at least two Ghanaian officials and four others in a bribery scheme that benefited Goldman, himself and a Turkish energy company that sought to build a power plant in the African nation. The unsealing was timed with Berko's arrest last week at London's Heathrow Airport, a person familiar with the matter said. He remains in U.K. custody. Carl Loewenson, a lawyer for Berko, declined to comment. John Marzulli, a spokesman for Brooklyn U.S. Attorney Breon Peace, also declined to comment. A spokesperson for Goldman didn't immediately respond to an email and voicemail messages seeking comment about the case. According to the indictment, Berko was at the time of the scheme a member of the team at Goldman responsible for securing and managing financing for the power plant project. He allegedly paid the bribes to obtain the necessary approvals for the Turkish company, in which Goldman held a 16% stake. Prosecutors also claim Berko laundered the bribe money through U.S. financial institutions. Berko was sued over the same conduct by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020. He last year resolved the SEC's suit by agreeing to pay more than $329,000 to regulators without admitting or denying the allegations, court records show. According to the SEC, Berko was a vice president in Goldman's natural-resources group before he resigned in December 2016. He then went on to serve as managing director of Ghana's state-owned Tema Oil Refinery Ltd. but stepped down after the SEC suit was filed. In another foreign-bribery case, Goldman paid more than $2.3 billion for its role in the the looting of Malaysia's 1MDB sovereign wealth fund. It was the largest penalty in U.S. history for a violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
UBS German offices searched by prosecutors on Usmanov links - UBS Group's Frankfurt and Munich offices are being searched by prosecutors as part of a money laundering investigation linked to the sanctioned Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov, people familiar with the probe said. The Swiss bank confirmed the raid and said it's fully cooperating with authorities, while declining to comment on the reasons for the search. The Frankfurt Prosecutor's Office said the raids are part of an investigation into alleged money laundering, without naming anyone. It stressed that no bank employees are suspects. An Usmanov spokesman rejected any allegations of money laundering or tax evasion, saying they would be unfounded, false and defamatory. The Russian is a law-abiding and diligent taxpayer and a renowned global philanthropist, the representative said. Der Spiegel reported the raids earlier. Usmanov is among the highest-profile Russians to be sanctioned after Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. The businessman owns 49% of USM, a Russia-based investment group that controls Metalloinvest, Russia's largest iron ore producer. He's estimated to be worth about $18.6 billion. Two dozen properties linked to the Russian were searched across Germany in September in a coordinated effort by hundreds of officers. German authorities previously impounded his superyacht Dilbar after determining it was legally owned by his sister, Gulbakhor Ismailova. She's also subject to western sanctions. Usmanov appealed the European Union sanctions at the EU's General court in April. Usmanov has had a client relationship with UBS since 2014 and prosecutors are looking at transactions totaling several million euros from 2017 to 2020, according to a person familiar with the matter. The bank filed anti-money-laundering warning notes at the time with authorities. Only now, as Germany set up a task force to look into sanctioned oligarchs, investigators retrieved the filings and reviewed the transactions, according to the person.
Credit Suisse forced to pay junk-level yields for cash infusion --Reeling from a series of scandals and financial troubles, Credit Suisse Group is paying a massive price to drum up demand for bond sales on both sides of the Atlantic that will give it a much-needed injection of cash. The embattled Swiss lender is marketing an 11-year fixed-to-floating-rate dollar bond at over 9% — levels more consistent with where high-yield borrowers are currently trading, according to Bloomberg indexes.Grappling with an existential crisis in its investment bank, Credit Suisse priced a euro obligation earlier with a stunning 7.75% coupon — the second-highest ever for a new senior investment-grade bank deal in euros.It's a sign of how far the lender's star has fallen as it undertakes sweeping job cuts, the sale of its securitized products group and a capital increase.Attracting hefty demand thanks to the junk-level yields on offer, both bond sales are heavily oversubscribed. The bank received $8 billion of orders for the $2 billion pending sale in the U.S. market, and €7.5 billion for the €3 billion 2029 bond in Europe, according to people familiar with the matter.A Credit Suisse spokesperson declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg.The sales underscore the bank's declining creditworthiness and the surging cost of new funding as market yields jump. The lender's long-term rating was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings to just one level above junk status last week, with the ratings agency citing "material execution risks."The average yield on a Bloomberg index of euro senior bank debt has risen to 4.3%, up more than 13-fold since the start of the year, as central banks hike rates to fight runaway inflation.Last week many of Credit Suisse's bondholders opted to hold on to discounted bonds issued by the Swiss lender in a buyback offer.Sales Wednesday will complete the bank's debt funding plans for the year and will count toward its total loss-absorbing capacity requirements, said Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Jeroen Julius.
Fed Survey: Banks reported Tighter Standards, Weaker Demand for Most Loan Types; Stronger Demand for HELOCs -From the Federal Reserve: The October 2022 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The October 2022 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the third quarter of 2022. Regarding loans to businesses, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter. Meanwhile, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories. For loans to households, lending standards tightened or remained basically unchanged across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans and demand weakened for all such loans. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and stronger demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Standards tightened for credit card loans and other consumer loans while standards for auto loans remained unchanged. Meanwhile, demand strengthened for credit card loans, was unchanged for other consumer loans, and weakened for auto loans.This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This shows that demand has declined sharply. The left graph is 1990 to 2014. The right graph is 2015 to Q3 2022.
Wall Street hit by new reality as legal risks of CO2 pact grow -Wall Street is walking into a new era of risk that has bankers, lawyers and climate campaigners reaching for a different playbook. As the world awaits the final result of the U.S. midterms, the finance industry is trying to figure out how vulnerable the outcome will leave it. That's as Republicans plan a new wave of antitrust action against firms perceived to be playing an active role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Nigel Topping, who co-leads the United Nations-backed Race to Zero Campaign, called it the "political weaponization of the reality of climate change.""And that's leading to some mad lawsuits," he said in an interview in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, during the COP27 climate summit. Unlike last year, the event drew hardly any Wall Street chief executives, with heavyweights including BlackRock's Larry Fink opting to stay away.The GOP says it's targeting "ESG collusion." In letters sent to a group of lawyers just before the midterms, Sens. Tom Cotton, Michael Lee, Charles Grassley, Marsha Blackburn and Marco Rubio said firms supporting environmental, social and governance goals should brace for "investigations" over "the coming months and years."Topping, who in 2020 was appointed as U.K. High Level Climate Action Champion and has played a key role in shaping the principles that guide the world's biggest climate-finance coalition — the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero — said antitrust concerns ultimately forced him and his colleagues at Race to Zero to remove language that would have compelled GFANZ members to phase out their financing of the fossil-fuel industry."We had to make one very tiny correction because we got some legal counsel that said that a particular choice of words was problematic from an antitrust point of view," he said. "So we changed it with exactly the same scientific intent, but with language which very clearly doesn't fall foul of that."After that revision, GFANZ members were free to follow their own path to net-zero emissions, rather than be subject to binding restrictions on the financing of oil, gas and coal. Mark Carney, the chief architect and co-chair of GFANZ, recently spelled out the challenges to U.K. lawmakers. (Michael Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, is also co-chair of GFANZ.)"There is an important difference" between setting common requirements and individual goals, he said Oct. 24 during a hearing of the U.K.'s Environmental Audit Committee. It "certainly raises important antitrust concerns," which is why Race to Zero's language "had to be adjusted," he said.
Toomey Leads Charge Against ESG Ratings Firms - Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey is retiring after serving 18 years in Congress. Still, before he leaves, he’s providing a blueprint for how a potential GOP majority can defang the effort to push controversial "ESG" mandates on corporate America. Toomey, a Republican, has requested information from a dozen firms, including proxy advisors and ratings agencies on how they come up with scores that rank how various corporations adhere to so-called Environmental, Social and Governance edicts, FOX Business has learned. He plans to hand over the information to his GOP colleagues, who are promising to mount investigations into the ESG movement armed with subpoena power if Congress runs red after next week’s midterms, people close to the matter say. ESG is a broad term to describe an investing technique that has become both popular and controversial in recent years as some investors demanded corporate policies that took into account societal needs, not just maximizing shareholder value. It seeks to force public companies to take steps to protect the environment, create governance mandates that ensure diversity and adhere to principles that better society. The Biden Administration has been pushing ESG through its various corporate regulatory agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission. Asset managers and exchanges like the Nasdaq, meanwhile, are attempting to direct investment money to those public companies that adhere to ESG mandates. But economists and GOP lawmakers have criticized the movement for forcing politically progressive standards on boardrooms. Critics, for instance, say that ESG has had a marginal impact on reducing the world’s carbon footprint since foreign companies like those in China are exempt. Critics also contend ESG has had a deleterious impact on American consumers, forcing energy companies to scale back on production, leading to higher gas prices. A key component of the $2.7 trillion ESG ecosystem are nearly a dozen firms that assign grades to public companies based on how well they comply with ESG standards. The companies include proxy advisers like ISS that recommend how shareholders vote on corporate policies, but also other outfits that grade public companies on their ESG efforts. Both play a role in how big asset managers allocate investment funds and thus shape corporate policy. Toomey, and other Republican lawmakers, have been increasingly vocal in their criticism of the ESG movement likening it to corporate blackmail. Companies, bullied by progressive activists, regulators in the White House, and egged on by ESG rating firms seeking a profit from the burgeoning business, cave to ESG demands. If the GOP takes both chambers of Congress, as recent polls suggest, ESG will be the focus of hearings and investigation targeting its top players, and regulatory officials such as those at the SEC that are enacting new rules demanding ESG disclosures from public companies, Fox Business has learned.
Why the CFPB's guidance on unfair practices will keep giving banks trouble - Leading up to the midterm elections, President Biden shared the stage with Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra, where both touted the elimination of bank "junk" fees as an example of how Democrats were working to lower costs for consumers. The political stagecraft — at a White House press conference coupled with official statements by both the White House and the CFPB — has thrown banks and financial institutions into legal turmoil. By targeting so-called "unfair" bank fees, Biden and Chopra have sought to single-handedly expand a law that banks and business trade groups have been fighting against for 40 years: the federal prohibition on "unfair, deceptive and abusive acts and practices," known as UDAAP. Bankers claim that the CFPB issued nonbinding guidance on so-called "unfair" bank fees and that the White House released a statement on the same day claiming the bureau's actions were settled law. The CFPB's novel approach to UDAAP has already been challenged in court by bank trade groups for exceeding the agency's authority and failing to adhere to the public rulemaking process. Now financial firms are facing higher costs plus legal and compliance risks if they fail to comply with guidance that no court has yet determined to be legal. "Even though the CFPB's guidance is not legally binding as a formal matter, if a company chooses not to change their behavior, the CFPB can later examine or investigate the company and allege that it was committing unfair practices and knew about it," said John Coleman, a partner at Buckley and a former CFPB deputy general counsel for litigation and oversight. The CFPB said that its guidance issued on Oct. 26 would help banks avoid charging illegal junk fees on deposit accounts. At the White House press conference, Chopra targeted two specific bank fees for elimination — so-called surprise overdraft fees and return deposit fees assessed for bounced checks. Chopra also stated in a press release that the two fees "are likely unfair and unlawful under existing law." The use of the term "likely" by the agency has caused plenty of angst among bankers trying to run their businesses. According to the CFPB's own statements, guidance does not have "the force and effect of law." But the White House muddied the waters with its statement saying the agency had acted "to effectively eliminate billions in banking fees." Experts said the White House's statement implied that the guidance is legally binding."The monetary risk of a company ignoring the CFPB's guidance is so immense that companies have a strong incentive to follow it and few reasonable options for recourse if their interpretation differs from the bureau's," said Coleman, who was one of the first employees to join the CFPB after its creation in 2010 by the Dodd-Frank Act. "A company with principled and reasonable disagreements with the CFPB will have to think carefully about whether to accept the risk of losing in court, even if that risk ought to be pretty low."
BankThink: The CFPB cannot be made immune to the Constitution | American Banker - Adam Levitin has recently warned that if the funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is to be considered unconstitutional, as a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit recently held, the result will be chaos, and that opponents of the CFPB should be careful what they wish for. ("Those seeking to bring down the CFPB should be careful what they wish for," American Banker, Oct. 28, 2022.)Whether the Fifth Circuit got it right, and how much chaos would actually result, is open for debate. What is clear, however, is that fear of possible effects on financial regulation should not influence the courts to stay their hand if in fact the CFPB is unconstitutional. The greater danger by far is to tolerate violations of the Constitution.Allowing an unconstitutional structure to persist for fear of chaos would not strengthen our constitutional order, but rather would encourage Congress to create agencies free from rules that the constitutional system requires and then allow them to burrow deeply enough into the economy that the cure would be seen as worse than the disease. Such a precedent must not be set.The CFPB was designed to be uniquely insulated from electoral politics. Most notably, the agency was to have a single director, who was only removable for cause, and a direct source of funding from the Federal Reserve, without any need for Congress to allocate funds or approve their use. Agency proponents hoped that this insulation would protect the CFPB from pressure by elected officials who were lobbied by industry.There is just one problem: accountability to elected officials is a core component of our constitutional system of government. Otherwise, the people, whose primary act of self-government is electing those same officials, would lack meaningful control over those who govern them. This is unacceptable.Over the past few years, the courts have taken a skeptical look at the CFPB. First, the Supreme Court struck down the for-cause protection of the CFPB's director, returning to the default that the director serves at the pleasure of the elected president. Recently, a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit held that the CFPB's direct and unreviewable line of funding from the Federal Reserve is also unconstitutional because it violates the Constitution's appropriations clause.The panel notes that the appropriations clause is not a mere formality. Rather, it was meant to be an important check on tyranny. The panel argues that the clause strengthens the separation of powers, one of our government's most important structural safeguards for personal liberty, by preventing the executive from spending money from the Treasury without Congress's consent and preventing Congress from abdicating that responsibility.Whether the Fifth Circuit is correct in its constitutional analysis can be debated, as Prof. Levitin suggested. The judicial system, either the full Fifth Circuit or the Supreme Court, should do its best to reach the result on that question. Less persuasive however is an appeal to protect the CFPB because of other agencies with similar funding or fear of market disruption.As Prof. Levitin notes, many financial regulators, including the Federal Reserve, OCC, FHFA and FDIC, are funded by means other than congressional appropriations. The Fifth Circuit panel sought to distinguish the CFPB from these agencies because of the scope and breadth of the CFPB's power. Prof. Levitin disputes that the CFPB is more powerful than the Federal Reserve. This may be true, but if it is, it could just as easily damn the Federal Reserve's funding as save the CFPB's.Congress cannot make the unconstitutional constitutional through repetition. While the constitutionality of the funding of FDIC, OCC, Federal Reserve, and so forth are not at issue in this case, they may also merit scrutiny in the future if the conclusion of the Fifth Circuit is upheld.
MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease to New Survey Low in the Third Quarter of 2022" - From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease to New Survey Low in the Third Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.45 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. The delinquency rate was down 19 basis points from the second quarter of 2022 and down 143 basis points from one year ago.“For the second quarter in a row, the mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979 – declining to 3.45 percent. Foreclosure starts and loans in the process of foreclosure also dropped in the third quarter to levels further below their historical averages,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The relatively small number of seriously delinquent homeowners are working with their mortgage servicers to find foreclosure alternatives, including loan workouts that allow for home retention.” This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies decreased in Q3 to a record low.From the MBA: Compared to second-quarter 2022, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding to 3.45 percent, the lowest level in the history of the survey dating back to 1979. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate remained unchanged at 1.66 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate increased 4 basis points to 0.53 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 22 basis points to 1.27 percent....The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. For much of the last two years, foreclosure moratoria were in place, which kept these numbers artificially low. ... The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter of 2022 was 0.56 percent, down 3 basis points from the second quarter of 2022, and 10 basis points higher than one year ago. This sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased year-over-year in Q3 with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums.
Comp selection is at the heart of appraisal bias, advocacy groups claim - When it comes to home valuation it's all about the comps — sales of comparable properties used by appraisers to establish a fair market price. The valuation process is meant to be technical and objective, but news reports of Black homeowners needing to use white stand-ins to obtain fair market valuations on their homes have called that objectivity into question. A study conducted by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition this summer found that racial disparities in home valuations exist and that biases in selecting comps are a big factor. NCRC recruited several interracial couples — in which one spouse is Black and the other is white — in the Baltimore area to participate in a "mystery shopper" trial. The couples would have their homes appraised twice, once while only the white spouse was home and with no indications that anyone Black lived in the home and then again under the opposite circumstances, with the Black spouse home and no sign of white occupancy. In most cases, the homes were appraised differently for the two spouses. Sometimes the white spouse received the higher valuation, sometimes the Black spouse did, but on average, appraisals given to white spouses were nearly $7,000 more than those given to their Black partners. One reason for this disparity is that the race of the homeowner present during the appraisal seemed to influence which homes were chosen as comps, said Jacob Lilien, NCRC counsel for fair housing enforcement. "Our study showed that the appraisers who dealt with Black homeowners were more likely than appraisers who dealt with white homeowners to choose homes in Blacker neighborhoods as comparatives and that played a role in the Black homes being valued less," Lilien said. "This has an impact on the ability of Black homeowners to get a fair valuation for their home."
New Home Cancellations increased Sharply in Q3 --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Cancellations increased Sharply in Q3A brief excerpt: First, a few quotes from some homebuilders: "During most of the year, demand for our homes was strong. Beginning in June and continuing through today, we have seen a moderation in housing demand caused by significant increases in mortgage interest rates and general economic uncertainty.” [Donald R. Horton, Chairman of the Board, said] …The Company’s cancellation rate (cancelled sales orders divided by gross sales orders) for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 was 32% compared to 19% in the prior year quarter. D.R. Horton“In response to the significant shift in market conditions in 2022, we have slowed the pace of our housing starts, have increased sales incentives, and are taking additional pricing actions in many of our communities.” Pulte GroupNew Orders decreased 15%, while the average sales price of New Orders increased 3% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2021.New Orders were negatively impacted in each of our reportable segments by the significant increase in mortgage interest rates during the quarter, which resulted in a decline in affordability and in turn, led to lower absorption rates and to an increase in the cancellation rate quarter over quarter. NVRHere is a table of selected public builders and the currently reported cancellation rate (I’m still gathering data).Disclaimer: the cancellation rates are from SEC filings only, and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. In general, cancellation rates doubled or tripled in the most recent quarter compared to 2021.
Redfin Fires 13% Of Staff, Exits House Flipping As Downturn Accelerates - House prices are sliding, and sales are plunging as the Federal Reserve hits the pause button on quantitative easing this year with the most aggressive interest rate hikes in four decades to cool the red-hot housing market spurred by low interest rates and tight inventories during the pandemic.A rising rate environment has sent the average thirty-year fixed mortgage rate to highs not seen since the Dot Com collapse era over two decades ago. This abrupt surge in rates caused an affordability crisis in housing as prices remained at lofty levels this year, forcing real-estate brokerage Redfin Corp. to slash workers in June. Now the online real-estate brokerage has announced the second round of layoffs, as well as an exit from its home-flipping business called "iBuying." Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman sent a letter to employees, also published on the company's website, about the layoffs. He indicated 13% of staff, or about 862 people, will be fired. We're laying off 862 brilliant, loyal people and also closing RedfinNow.We'll still need home-services employees for our concierge service to fix up brokerage customers' listings, but since that group spent most of its time renovating RedfinNow homes, it will get much smaller.Kelman explained the layoffs are equivalent to about 13% of the workforce. Since April 27, about 27% of the total workforce has been reduced -- this coincides with a rising interest rate environment and souring macroeconomic backdrop for the economy forced on by the Fed's monetary tightening.The top-level executive made a bold prediction about the 2023 housing market: A layoff is awful but we can't avoid it. We plan to keep increasing our share of the market, but that market in 2023 is likely to be 30% smaller than it was in 2021. The June layoff was a response to our expectation that we'd sell fewer houses in 2022; this layoff assumes the downturn will last at least through 2023.
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Declined in September; Down 2.6% since June --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Declined in September; Down 2.6% since June A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the Black Knight HPI. The index is still up 10.1% year-over-year but declined for the third straight month in September and is now 2.6% off the peak in June.
Housing market watchers are split on whether we will see meaningful price declines in coming months – or even years – due to low affordability, or a more lateral correction moderated by historically low inventory
• September’s data brought fodder for both sides of the debate, with home prices slipping for a third consecutive month, but at 0.52%, less than half the monthly declines seen in July and August
• All in, prices have fallen 2.6% since June – the first 3-month decline since 30-year rates spiked to near 5% back in late 2018, and the worst 3-month stretch since early 2009.
Housing November 7th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased Slightly Week-over-week - Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory is declining sharply at this time of year):Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 138% since then. Altos reports inventory is down 0.4% week-over-week. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of November 4th, inventory was at 575 thousand (7-day average), compared to 577 thousand the prior week. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 43.5% from 401 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 8.5% from 530 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 36.0% from 898 thousand. Here are the inventory milestones I’ve been watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4, 2022, for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 20, 2022, for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ✅
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 36.0%).
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4).The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.A key will be if inventory declines slowly during the winter months.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 42% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 20% -- Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 5, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 42% above one year ago. Inventory accelerated by a more modest amount this week, but it was still the fourth consecutive week of roughly 2+% inventory gains after a fair amount of stability since July. Inventory growth even in the face of fewer newly listed homes indicates how many buyers have retreated from the housing market rather than navigate higher costs stemming from higher purchase prices and higher mortgage rates. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 20% from one year ago. This marks the eighteenth week of year over year declines in homeowners listing their home for sale, a sign that homeowners are well aware of the market’s reset. This data suggests that many potential sellers may be joining buyers in “wait-and-see” mode.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July. Then the Realtor.com data was stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 14 weeks in a row. This was due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales had fallen sharply.Now YoY inventory is increasing again with even higher mortgage rates, suggesting sales are off more than new listings.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in October --From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October - The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2. During the month, the DMI continued its steady ascent, with the commercial component rising 13%, and the institutional component ticking up 2.9%.Commercial planning was bolstered by a solid increase in office and hotel projects. The institutional component was varied, experiencing growth in recreational and education projects, countered by a decline in the number of healthcare and public planning projects. On a year-over-year basis, the DMI was 28% higher than in October 2021, the commercial component was up 29%, and institutional planning was 25% higher....“The sustained upward trajectory in the Momentum Index shows optimism from owners and developers that projects will continue to move forward, even with rising concerns of an economic recession,” said Sarah Martin, senior economist for Dodge Construction Network. “Specific nonresidential segments, such as data centers and life science laboratories, have thrived in 2022 and continue to support strength in planning activity. As we move into next year, however, labor and supply shortages, high material costs and high interest rates will likely temper planning activity back to a more moderate pace.”This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 199.7 in October, up from 182.2 in September. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a solid pickup in commercial real estate construction into 2023.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Close to Pre-Pandemic Levels - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through November 8th. Lumber was at $447 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 33% from $663 a year ago.Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year. It is unlikely we will see a runup in prices as happened at the end of last year due to the housing slowdown.
Record 7% Surge In Small Business Rent Delinquency In October - Small businesses are struggling to pay rent due to higher rent inflation and fewer customers. The struggles vary by type of business... Alignable reports Record Surge In Rent Delinquency: Up 7% In October, Totaling 37% For U.S. SMBsDue to ongoing economic challenges, small business owners' ability to pay their full rent on time in October took a major hit based on a new Alignable poll. In fact, the U.S. rent delinquency rate among small businesses jumped 7% in just one month, marking the largest, most rapid increase in 2022.In September, rent delinquency was at a six-month low, as optimism for Q4's earning potential was high and some small business owners reported increased sales.But now, a month later, 37% of small business owners in the U.S. were unable to pay their rent in full and on time in October, compared to just 30% in September.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Future Growth Outlook Dismal - The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for October came in at 91.3, down 0.8 from the previous month. The index is at the 10th percentile in this series.Here is an excerpt from the opening summary of the news release.“Owners continue to show a dismal view about future sales growth and business conditions, but are still looking to hire new workers,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages continue to limit the ability of many small businesses to meet the demand for their products and services.”The first chart below highlights the 1986 baseline level of 100 and includes some labels to help us visualize that dramatic change in small-business sentiment that accompanied the Great Financial Crisis and now the COVID-19 pandemic. Compare, for example, the relative resilience of the index during the 2000-2003 collapse of the Tech Bubble with the far weaker readings following the Great Recession that ended in June 2009 and today's figures.
BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in October; Core CPI increased 0.3% --From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing. The energy index increased 1.8 percent over the month as the gasoline index and the electricity index rose, but the natural gas index decreased. The food index increased 0.6 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent in September. The indexes for shelter, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, new vehicles, and personal care were among those that increased over the month. Indexes which declined in October included the used cars and trucks, medical care, apparel, and airline fares indexes.The all items index increased 7.7 percent for the 12 months ending October, this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending January 2022. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year; all of these increases were smaller than for the period ending September. Both CPI and core CPI were below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
Consumer Price Index: October Headline at 7.75%, Smallest YoY Increase Since Jan 2020 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index data last week. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 7.75%, down from 8.20% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.28%, down from 6.63% the previous month.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing. The energy index increased 1.8 percent over the month as the gasoline index and the electricity index rose, but the natural gas index decreased. The food index increased 0.6 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent in September. The indexes for shelter, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, new vehicles, and personal care were among those that increased over the month. Indexes which declined in October included the used cars and trucks, medical care, apparel, and airline fares indexes.The all items index increased 7.7 percent for the 12 months ending October, this was the smallest 12month increase since the period ending January 2022. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year; all of these increases were smaller than for the period ending September. Read moreInvesting.com was looking for a 0.4% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.5% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 8.1% for Headline and 6.5% for Core. The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The next chart shows both series since 1957, the year the government first began tracking Core Inflation.
Services Inflation Spiked to Second Highest in 4 Decades, Would Have Spiked to Highest, If Not Slowed by Biggest-Ever Mega-Adjustment of Health Insurance CPI - Let’s just start with inflation in services today because nearly two-thirds of consumer spending ends up in services, so this is the biggie. And some extra-special stuff happened in the CPI for services in October. What would come today was discussed over the past weeks in the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere, and it wasn’t a surprise: a massive mega-adjustment by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the CPI for health insurance. And today it came. Everyone knows that the costs of health insurance didn’t plunge in October from September. But because of the periodic adjustment, the CPI for health insurance plunged 4.0% in October from September, a 6.1 percentage-point swing from September (+2.1%), according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. This was by far the biggest month-to-month plunge in the BLS data going back to 2005, and far outstripped the adjustments in prior periods: The CPI for health insurance accounts for 0.9% in overall CPI and for 1.1% in the Core CPI. And the plunge today pushed down the overall index, and even more the core CPI and the services CPI. Inflation in health insurance is difficult to figure because numerous factors change, not just the premium but also co-pays, deductibles, out-of-pocket maximums, what is covered and what isn’t covered, etc., and there are all kinds of insurance plans out there.So the BLS uses a different method to estimate price changes, the “retained earnings method,” which the BLS explains here, and once a year or so, it has to adjust the index as more data become available.Normally the annual adjustment isn’t such a huge deal, but this time, the adjustment was gigantic.The adjustment will carry forward for the next 12 months, meaning that health insurance CPI will be negative on a month-to-month basis for the next 12 months to work down the overstatement for the past 12 months.Year-over-year, the health insurance CPI was still up 20.6%, but the year-over-year increases will be slashed for the next 11 months. It was also negative from month-to-month from August 2020 through August 2021.This chart shows the index value, which will continue to drop for another 11 months, until the next adjustment: But no adjustment for the Fed’s favored “core PCE” index.The Fed uses the “core PCE” price index as yardstick for its 2% inflation target. This “core PCE” price index uses a different and broader methodology, and it’s put together by a different government agency (the Bureau of Economic Analysis), and it figures health insurance inflation differently, and there will not be an adjustment. It’s the lowest lowball index that the government produces, and we may pooh-pooh it, but it’s the most important inflation index for the Fed, and this “core PCE” price index won’t be adjusted in October. It will be released on December 1, just ahead of the Fed’s next meeting. The CPI for services jumped by 0.4% in October from September, less steep than the 0.8% spike in the prior month, thanks to the massive adjustment to health insurance CPI.In this chart of month-to-month changes of the CPI for services, note the large ups and downs from month to month, which is why you cannot conclude anything by just looking at one month: On a year-over-year basis, the services CPI jumped by 7.24%, just a tiny bit less than in September (+7.38%). Both are the worst since August 1982.
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in October --The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in October. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 7.0%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 7.0%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.3%. Core PCE is for September and increased 5.1% year-over-year.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Fuel oil and other fuels" increased at a 232% annualized rate in October. Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up between 6.0% annualized in the Midwest and 8.5% in the South with an average of close to 8% annualized. The year-over-year increase for OER was less in October than in September. This data is lagged, and actually rent growth has slowed sharply in recent months.
Apple Cuts Outlook For iPhone Shipments Again, This Time Due To Chinese Lockdowns -For the 2nd time in the past month, and just days after its "not all that bad" earnings presentation which helped AAPL be the only GAMMA stock not to tank after reporting Q3 earnings, late on Sunday Apple said shipments of its newest premium iPhones will be lower than previously expected after China lockdowns affected operations at a supplier’s factory.In a brief, tersely worded statement, Apple said that it continues to see strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models but the neverending Chinese lockdowns - which have long ago become just a scapegoat for the Chinese economic implosion - mean “customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products.” Also, on its website, the company said that deliveries of iPhone 14 Pro handsets are currently listed for late November or early December.Here is the full statement...COVID-19 restrictions have temporarily impacted the primary iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max assembly facility located in Zhengzhou, China. The facility is currently operating at significantly reduced capacity. As we have done throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we are prioritizing the health and sa fety of the workers in our supply chain.We continue to see strong demand for iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models. However, we now expect lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments than we previously anticipated and customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products.We are working closely with our supplier to return to normal production levels while ensuring the health and safety of every worker.... which company shareholders will wonder why none of this was discussed a little over a week ago when the company reported earnings; to be sure, there was zero mentions of China issues on the earnings call yet anyone following the company knew that it would have to guide down in the future. The only surprise is that the future was just one week later.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in October; Prices Down 10.6% Year-over-year - From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Smaller Decline in October Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.2% in October from September. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 200.0 and is now down 10.6% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in October was a decline of 2.1% compared to September, moving the unadjusted average price down 9.3% year over year. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in October and were down 10.6% year-over-year (YoY). This also suggests the consumer price index for used cars and trucks will be down again in October.It is likely this index will be down more than 15% YoY in November.
Used-Vehicle Wholesale Prices Plunged, but Not Retail Prices; They’re Still in the Ridiculous Zone - The thing about used-vehicle prices is that wholesale prices at auction have plunged all year, and dropped again in October, and this is where dealers buy a big portion of their inventory. But retail prices of used vehicles haven’t dropped, even as retail sales declined amid a buyers’ strike following the ridiculous price spikes in 2021 and 2020. And there is pressure on dealers to cut prices, and dealers are bitching about this environment and dropping sales. But they’re still furiously trying to hold up these ridiculous retail prices for as long as they can. Used vehicle wholesale prices dropped by 2.2% in October from September, by 16% from the peak in December and January, and by 10.6% year-over-year, the first year-over-year decline since May 2020, according to data from Manheim, the largest auto auction house in the US and a unit of Cox Automotive. Compared to October 2020, despite the recent drop, the index is still up by 24%, which shows how ridiculous the price spike has been. Wholesale prices reflect input costs for dealers. The cost of newly purchased inventory has been dropping all year. And generally, businesses don’t complain when their input prices drop. But whatever vehicles they had sitting on the lot for a while were purchased at the higher prices effective at the time, and that’s a problem for dealers. And since these input costs are dropping for all dealers, price competition will eventually have an effect on retail prices that dealers charge, but dealers are furiously trying to hold the line. In 2020 and 2021, dealers had been starry-eyed over the buyers’ sudden willingness to pay whatever, even paying more for a used vehicle than an equivalent new vehicle would have cost, if there had been any. This special effect of paying-whatever was in part due to the torrent of free money that was raining down on everything and everybody since the spring of 2020. The “average listing price” at dealers hasn’t budged this year. At $28,237 in September, it was roughly unchanged from December, according to Cox Automotive (it will release the October data in a few days). This reflects the average price at which dealers advertise their retail units. Over the 17-month period from August 2020 through December 2021, the average listing price jumped by a ridiculous 41%, as dealers were foaming at the mouth over the buyers’ sudden willingness to pay whatever, and they were bidding up prices at auctions to ridiculous levels, knowing that they still make historic gross profits by selling those vehicles at even higher prices to retail customers suddenly willing to pay whatever. This mania peaked in December and January. But listing prices just haven’t come down since then:
Real Median Weekly Earnings: CPI vs. Chained CPI - by Menzie Chinn - The trend in real median weekly earnings looks different depending on deflator. Figure 1: Median weekly earnings, deflated by CPI (blue), deflated by Chained CPI seasonally adjusted (tan), both in logs, 2010Q4=0. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Chained CPI seasonally adjusted on monthly basis using X-13/X-11. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations. Using the CPI, real median weekly earnings in 2022Q3 are slightly lower than they were pre-pandemic, while using the chained CPI, they were slightly higher.
I'm Selling My Blood To Eat, I Have No Choice": Biden Inflation Crushes Americans - Gas, groceries, electricity, and rent -- the price of everything has soared to four-decade highs under the Biden administration. Household finances are under severe pressure as wage growth fails to outpace inflation for 18 months, leading many folks to find a second job. Even holding two jobs isn't enough to sustain the cost-of-living crisis, as some are finding the nearest plasma clinic to donate blood to earn extra cash. Cashe Lewis, 31, of Denver, Colorado, works multiple jobs and is trying to find a third job due to rising shelter inflation. She told The Guardian she works six days a week, sometimes more than 16 hours per day, just to pay the bills. "I'm exhausted all the time ... on the one day I have off a week, I donate plasma for extra money. I'm literally selling my blood to eat because I have no choice," Lewis said. She said many of her "friends and family work multiple jobs" as inflation makes "nothing affordable and the roadblocks set up to keep people in the cycle of poverty benefit the most wealthy members of our society." Lewis said: "We aren't living, we're barely surviving, and we have no choice but to keep doing it."More Americans than ever are working multiple jobs as inflation wipes out real wage growth. Real wage growth has been negative for 18 consecutive months. The personal savings rate has tumbled to multi-decade lows at 3.1%, just shy of the record low of 3.0%... And some experts are concerned about the pace of growth in consumer credit as debt loads for households soar as their wages can't cover added costs of food, shelter, and energy. But according to MSNBC's Joy Reid, her latest comments claim that Americans were oblivious to inflation until conservative political candidates started talking about it.Reid's suggestion insinuates that the public was comfortably unaware of the inflationary/stagflationary crisis and could have stayed that way had it not been for those meddling Republicans and their refusal to use the "common tongue" on the campaign trail. In other words, she believes the average voter is stupid.Voters aren't stupid, and they're going to vote with their depleted wallets on Tuesday. A recent poll found that most Americans (over 90%) now rate inflation and the economic decline as their top worry going into the midterm elections. And it's not just Lewis who has sold her blood plasma to feed her family. Many others like her are scouring the internet for where they can donate plasma for money.
"People Are Fed Up": Soaring Electricity Bills Become New Pain Point For Biden -Utility companies are increasing electricity prices for American households ahead of the heating season. Some households take on debt to cover their power bills, while millions cannot pay. High electricity bills will be yet another uncomfortable political pain point for the Biden administration, according to Bloomberg. Ahead of the US midterm elections, we outlined in several pieces that rising commodity prices are forcing utility companies to negotiate power contracts with customers higher. Readers may recall we recently titled a note, "Your Next Pain Will Be Soaring Electricity Costs As Energy Crisis Comes To America." A gubernatorial debate in California not too long ago focused on skyrocketing electricity bills. Across the country, in Maine, politicians argued whether renewable energy is driving up electricity prices. A New York Republican candidate for governor pitched a move for the state to reverse a ban on oil and natural gas drilling to secure energy. Discussions about power bills across the country come as at least 20 million households -- or about 1 in 6 American homes -- are behind on their utility bills. This winter's energy supply crunch could increase power bills and devastate households. And it's not just rising power bills households are contending with --it's also rising prices for everything from food, shelter, and gas at the pump -- and this will influence how Americans vote on Tuesday. The latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, which traditionally tends to spin topics to the hard left, shows a whopping 90% of Americans now rate inflation and economic turmoil as their primary concern ahead of elections. "People are fed up," Tom Content, executive director of Citizens Utility Board of Wisconsin, an energy-advocacy group, told Bloomberg.
Has this Contorted Labor Market Forced Companies to Change their Thinking about Layoffs? - Wolf Richter - We still have the most contorted labor market ever, but there are some big shifts, and those shifts make sense. We’re going to look at this picture book backwards. So stay with me. There has been a lot of thinking about the “why,” but I’ll stick to the “how.” We can look at the readily available supply of labor roughly as the people who are looking for work but don’t have work at the moment. There are different aspects to it. So here we go. The number of unemployed people near historic lows. People are deemed unemployed if they actively looked for a job during the reference period and don’t have a job. People who didn’t look for a job are not deemed unemployed (retirees, students, day traders, etc.). The number of unemployed ticked up in October from September, to 6.06 million, but remained in the same narrow range since January, and remains historically very low. This is particularly interesting because over the decades, the population in the US has grown: This data came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today, which obtained it via its large survey of households. Unemployment insurance claims near historic lows. Well-known companies, such as Lyft, Twitter, Carvana, etc., are now constantly in the news with layoffs. But the numbers are still small – in the hundreds or a few thousand per company – “small,” considering that even in the best of times, there are around 6 million unemployed in the US. And so far, many people that have gotten laid off have found jobs quickly, or already had jobs lined up by the time they were escorted out the building. So the number of people who filed for unemployment compensation, at 217,000 in the week through last Saturday, as reported by the Department of Labor yesterday, was down a smidgen from the prior week and remains near historic lows. In parallel, the number of layoffs and involuntary discharges, a more lagging data set based on surveys of companies, reported by the BLS three days ago, fell from already low levels toward record lows, to 1.33 million people in September, down from 1.49 million in August, and down by 33% from September 2019: The labor force – people who either have jobs or are actively looking for jobs – dipped again in October, to 164.7 million people, according to the BLS today, based on its survey of households. It remains stunningly far below pre-pandemic trend. This refusal – I use the term loosely here – of the labor force to get back to trend is the biggest issue the labor market has, and it’s a very complex issue, and lots of people are coming up with reasons for that. But it is what it is: The overall number of people who are working has stagnated all year. This includes people with all kinds of work, gig workers, entrepreneurs, the self-employed, people with regular jobs, etc. The BLS obtains this data via large surveys of households. It’s the broadest employment measure and is very different from the “jobs created” data that the BLS obtains via large surveys from employers; more on that in a moment. But employers added 261,000 workers to their payrolls in October. Over the past three months, they added 868,000 workers. So far this year, they added 4.07 million workers, according to surveys of employers by the BLS today. These are W-2 type employees, not gig workers and self-employed. This chart shows the rolling three-month total of changes in payrolls at employers. The latest three-month period from August through October came to 868,000 — the lowest since the reopening phase, but still higher than most pre-pandemic periods: The self-employed switch to W-2 payrolls. The stagnation in the total number of working people (from the household survey) and the continued strong growth of W-2 payrolls at employers (from the establishment survey) shows that employers are aggressively hiring and offering wages and benefits that draw gig workers and the self-employed people onto their payrolls – and that makes sense.This is a big shift: While employers created several million W-2 jobs this year, the total number of working people has remained the same, and we can conclude that a large number of gig workers and self-employed have joined the W-2 payroll crowd.The chart below shows the trend. The total number of workers, as per household survey is always larger than the payrolls alone because the workers reflected in the household survey includes the W-2 employees plus all the rest of the workers. Since early 2022, that difference has been shrinking dramatically, from about 7.5 million workers in January, February, and March to just 5.3 million in October. Job openings were up by 51% from September 2019, at an astronomical 10.7 million. We got this data a few days ago from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) by the BLS. In manufacturing, the number of unfilled openings was up by 84% from three years ago! The explosion of job openings last year, and the still huge unmet demand for labor depicted by these job openings currently, along with the very tight supply of labor, as seen by the labor force data, speak of the supply-and-demand imbalances currently in the labor market.We can see the effects of aggressive hiring – such as offering higher wages, better benefits, improved working conditions – which turns into poaching workers from other employers, which creates that massive churn in the labor market that we can see in the historic number of workers who voluntarily quit their jobs because then can get a better job.And this aggressive hiring also brings the self-employed onto the formal payrolls, as we’ve seen in the chart above.And the payroll data from ADP showed just how huge the wage gains were for people who quit their job to get a better job. For overall private-sector employees, the median annual increase in pay amounted to 7.7% for the “job-stayers” and to 15.2% for the job-changers:
Thousands of workers were laid off this week as tech companies and startups brace for an economic crash. Investors, founders, and recruiters explain why this is just the beginning. - In the past few months, a number of employees of GoFundMe had begun to feel uneasy, as the company's metrics failed to hit certain internal targets. Then on a late October morning, the company abruptly announced an all-hands meeting, in which CEO Tim Cadogan announced massive layoffs. Even though they'd sensed something bad around the corner, the news still came as a shock to many employees. The cuts were sweeping, impacting 94 workers — 12% of the overall team — from across the organization, from communications to customer service, marketing, and to trust and safety. Some of the longest-tenured employees were impacted, with many laid-off workers working there for five-plus years. Several were on holiday when they got the news. "The text messages started flooding in while I was sitting at a table surrounded by family on what I thought was going to be a short vacation," one employee wrote. "I could tell by the panic in the messages and who was sending them that life was about to change." The GoFundMe employees' experiences were far from unique. Amid growing economic uncertainty, layoffs in the technology industry, both for public companies and for startups, have been escalating this Fall. And over the past week or two, the drumbeat has markedly increased. Ride-hailing firm Lyft just let go of 700 employees. Fintech giant Stripe said goodbye to 14% of its workforce — around 1,000 people. Chime, another buzzy fintech unicorn, is laying off 160 people, while OpenDoor has fired 550. In late October, Zillow dismissed 300-odd workers, and another 120 or so recently lost their jobs at NFT buzzy startup Dapper Labs. Another 80 at StockX, 50 at BitMex, 142 at ChargeBee — the list goes on and on. From once-plucky private startups to major, publicly traded platform companies, firms are tightening their belts. Amid persistent inflation, a collapse in venture funding, and fear in the public markets, more tech companies than ever are now being forced to do the unthinkable — slash the size of their workforce. "It's going to be a hard time; at the micro level, it will affect a lot of people's jobs and livelihoods," Mark Peter Davis, managing partner at Interplay, told Insider. "At the macro level, I don't think it will be a catastrophic, 2008-style situation. That doesn't mean it won't hurt, though." The pandemic extended a multi-decade boom in the tech sector, which grew giants like Apple, Amazon, and Facebook and also in recent years pumped venture capital money into newer startups like Reddit, Coinbase, and Affirm. But alarm bells started to ring this year. While plenty of tech companies were still flying high in early 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February accelerated global economic turmoil. By late spring, the tech industry braced for a historic slump as valuations plummeted and companies looked to cut costs — largely through layoffs. More than 17,000 tech workers lost their jobs in both May and June, while July and August saw another 29,000 cuts, according to layoff tracker Layoffs.fyi. Layoffs lulled into the fall, but cuts have picked up again: 88 tech companies shed 12,000 workers in October, according to Layoffs.fyi's tally and there has already been at least another 3,500 let go this month — not counting the estimated 3,700 Twitter workers fired on Friday. The Federal Reserve has continued to aggressively hike interest rates in response to unexpectedly persistent high inflation— and the accompanying economic headwinds, from higher costs to less access to capital, is squeezing companies across the board. Many firms like Meta have already tried softer measures, like "quiet layoffs" (managing employees out using performance reviews) but now have no choice but to begin true cuts.
Childhood traumas strongly impact both mental and physical health, new study shows --The social environments we grow up in are critical when determining our well-being and health later in life. Most Americans (67%) report experiencing at least one traumatic event in childhood, and a new study shows that these experiences have significant impacts on our health risks as adults. Physical illnesses such as obesity and chronic pain are affected, but mental disorders show the most significant association, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), bipolar disorder, substance abuse, and depression. Scientists from the Desert Research Institute (DRI) and the University of Nevada, Reno, led the study, published on Oct. 6 in the journal Frontiers in Psychiatry. More than 16,000 people from the Reno area volunteered for the research as part of the Healthy Nevada Project, one of the most visible genomic studies in the United States, powered by Renown Health. Participants answered questions about their social environments before age 18, including experiences with emotional, physical, or sexual mistreatment, neglect, and substance abuse in the household. The researchers combined this information with anonymized medical records to build on existing research about how childhood traumas affect health outcomes. "The study provides insight as to how social determinants of health may influence adult health disorders," said Robert Read, M.S., a researcher at the Center for Genomic Medicine at DRI and one of the study's lead authors. Nearly two-thirds (66%) of participants recalled at least one type of trauma, and almost one-quarter (24%) reported experiencing more than four. Women and people of African-American and Latinx descent reported a higher prevalence of traumatic experiences than men and those with European ancestry, but people in low-income households were the most impacted. Thirteen mental illnesses showed the most statistically significant associations, including mood disorders, depression, PTSD, anxiety disorders, eating disorders, schizophrenia, and substance abuse. For every reported type of abuse experienced in childhood, a participant's risk for PTSD increased 47%. Each cumulative trauma also increased one's risk for making a suicide attempt by 33%. The researchers note that although the study is rooted in Nevada—which has high rates of adults with mental illness and poor access to care—it provides a window into deeply rooted public health issues across the nation. "Combatting the prevalence of childhood traumas is a complex problem," said Karen Schlauch, Ph.D., a bioinformatics researcher at DRI and one of the study's lead authors. "Personal experiences with neglect and abuse are more challenging to address, but many of the underlying issues can be tackled at the community level, like food insecurity and poverty."
Joe Rogan admits schools don’t have litter boxes for kids who ‘identify’ as furries - Joe Rogan has acknowledged spreading misinformation after he suggested that elementary schools were installing litter boxes for students who “identify” as furries. The sensationalist urban legend was rooted in the right’s continued attacks on trans and gender non-conforming youth. Rogan, the Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert, and the Minnesota Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Jensen all swore they had heard stories of schools across the US changing their bathroom policies to accommodate wannabe felines. But an NBC News investigation determined this was untrue. The furries-in-kindergarten myth was repeated by at least 20 candidates and officials this year, the report found, but none of the school districts mentioned actually offered litter boxes for student use. (Though officials in Colorado’s Jefferson county school district said in 2017 they did keep litter in closets as an “emergency go bucket”, in the event that a student needed to relieve themselves while in emergency lockdown.) But the story still spread. Ericka Menchen-Trevino, a professor at American University’s School of Communication, explained to the Guardian why she believed these rumors were catnip to some parents. “This story put together a few things that some people already believe are true: that people’s assertions of identity, especially [for] children, are out of control, and that our schools are out of control for allowing it,” she said. “It fits very well with some people’s prior beliefs, and they don’t need to fact-check [because] it’s right in line with what they believe.” Joan Donovan, research director for Harvard Kennedy’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy, added that the fake story gained traction “because it allows [politicians] to dog-whistle their transphobia without having to say the quiet part out loud. “What was once a transphobic joke about ‘what’s next, kids identifying as cats?’ became a soft target for hoaxers who knew audiences were already primed to believe outrageous things,” she added.
What are 'furries?' Debunking myths about kids identifying as animals, and litter boxes in schools -- From abortion to book bans, critical race theory and transgender rights, much political rhetoric in the run-up to the mid-term elections in the United States has centered around “culture war” issues.One of the most recent examples involves a relatively unknown community.It feels like everyone has an opinion, or heard a rumour, about kids dressing up as animals, calling themselves furries and demanding litter boxes. Harmful misinformation about furries is running rampant on social media and even being promoted to some school boards.However, misunderstanding furries was mainstream long before it became political. Prior to the litter box rumours, furries were seen as sexual deviants — an idea that was reinforced by popular media that emphasized the sensational over facts.If your knowledge of furries comes mostly from television or social media, then what you’ve heard about furries is probably wrong. It’s not your fault — the misinformation is pervasive. I’m not a furry, and I once held erroneous views of furries, too. However, after years of research, information is now available to help correct the record.I’m a co-founder of the International Anthropomorphic Research Project, also known as Furscience. We’re a small group of interdisciplinary professors who have studied furries and other fan groups for more than 15 years. Have you heard of cosplay, where people costume as characters? They might dress up as a storm trooper or superhero and attend a comic book convention to have fun with friends. Furries do a similar thing, but with a twist.Furries are people who have an interest in anthropomorphism, which specifically refers to giving human characteristics to animals. In its most distilled form, furries are a group of people who formed a community — or fandom — because they have a common interest in anthropomorphic media, friendships and social inclusion.About 95 per cent of furries develop their own unique avatar-like charactercalled a fursona. The product of deep reflection, fursonas can represent idealized versions of the self that are imbued with positive characteristics, like being sociable, funny and less anxious.Fursonas can be a safe, functional way for furries to explore who they are as people, including their gender identity and sexual orientation. Research also indicates that a fursona can help facilitate interactions with others and result in more social confidence.Furries don’t identify as animals; they identify with animals. In the same way that cosplayers typically don’t believe they are actually Spiderman, furries don’t think they are their fursonas.Having a fursona doesn’t mean that a furry owns a fursuit (a mascot-like outfit), and only 15 to 25 per cent of furries have them. While many furries have no interest in acquiring a fursuit at all, they can also be prohibitively expensive. Some fursuits are phenomenally engineered with fans, cooling packs and LED lights built into them.Fursuits are usually worn on special occasions — a parade, meet-up or convention. Another 50 per cent of furries own furry paraphernalia — a furry T-shirt, ears, collar or tail — that communicates their furry interests to others.Have you met sports fans who wear their team’s jersey at a special event, such as a game, or a music fan who wears their favourite band’s branded T-shirt? Most people wouldn’t wear this kind of fan paraphernalia to work or a job interview, and some wouldn’t wear it at all. That’s the case for furries, too.
Denver Archdiocese’s guidance to Catholic schools: Don’t enroll transgender students. Treat gay parents differently. - The Archdiocese of Denver provides local Catholic schools with explicit written guidance on the handling of LGBTQ issues, including telling administrators they should not enroll or re-enroll transgender or gender non-conforming students, and that gay parents should be treated differently than heterosexual couples.This 17-page document, titled “Guidance for Issues Concerning the Human Person and Sexual Identity,” was obtained by The Denver Post and confirmed by the archdiocese. In advising administrators on how to deal with gay and transgender students, parents and staff, it warns that “the spread of gender ideology presents a danger to the faith of Christians.”Among other guidance, the document said schools should not allow students to use pronouns “at odds with the student’s biological sex.” School officials are advised not to promote students’ acceptance and approval of LGBTQ identities. Teachers who decide to transition are “not suited to teach in a Catholic school or to carry out the school’s mission in any capacity.”At the same time, the document implores schools to show compassion for gay and transgender students, saying ministry toward LGBTQ students should be executed with “charity and prudence” and affirm God’s unconditional love while still being faithful to church teachings and “the truth.”“Christian anthropology is unalterably opposed to many aspects of the gender ideology currently affecting the culture nationally and internationally,” the document notes. The guidance is intended to show “how schools can help Catholics withstand the cultural current that threatens to unmoor us from our foundations.”The Denver Archdiocese’s guidance contradicts the American Academy of Pediatrics, which states LGBTQ youth should not be considered abnormal and are not inherently engaged in “risk behaviors.” Rather, LGBTQ youth who encounter homophobia often experience psychological distress, the academy said, which can lead to health disparities such as depression, suicidality, substance abuse and other mental health issues.
Universal masking linked to fewer covid cases in schools, study finds - Public schools that kept universal masking requirements in place last year had significantly fewer coronavirus cases than their counterparts that lifted mandates as state policies changed, according to a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine that weighs in on the hotly debated pandemic safety measure.The study, which followed schools in the Boston region during the 2021-2022 academic year, found that the end of mask requirements was associated with an additional 45 coronavirus cases per 1,000 students and staff members — or nearly 12,000 cases during a 15-week period from March to June.School systems in Boston and Chelsea, Mass., had stayed with universal masking even after Massachusetts officials rescinded the statewide requirement in February. But 70 nearby school districts did away with masking mandates. Before that split, coronavirus trends were similar across the school districts. Afterward, they diverged, with a “substantially higher incidence in observed in school districts that lifted masking requirements,” according to the research.“Our results support universal masking as an important strategy for reducing covid-19 incidence in schools and loss of in-person school days,” wrote the authors, who included researchers from Harvard University, Boston University and the Boston Public Health Commission.The toll of the additional coronavirus cases was stark: They translated into at least 17,500 missed school days for students and 6,500 missed school days for staff members, at a time when schools were following an isolation period of at least five days for those infected, the study said.Universal masking helped most when the levels of virus were highest, suggesting that the safety measure is most useful just before or throughout periods of high transmission. Massachusetts was one of 18 states with a masking requirement in place for public schools during the 2021-2022 academic year. It withdrew the policy when guidance changed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Meagan Fitzpatrick, an epidemiologist and infectious-disease transmission modeler at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, called the study well-designed and well-executed, saying she wished there had been one like it earlier in the pandemic. “The difference in COVID risk between districts with and without masking is striking,” she wrote in an email. If anything, she said, the study underestimates how well masks control disease, because even in schools with no mandate, some students and staff members probably continued to wear masks.The findings support on-ramps and off-ramps for mask mandates, she said, which “makes sense, since masking does the most good when there is disease to be prevented.” The school districts that continued with masking mandates had larger percentages of students of color, students from low-income backgrounds, students with disabilities and English learners, the study said. They also tended to have older buildings, with outdated or missing ventilation and filtration systems and larger class sizes. It also pointed out that Boston and Chelsea were among the state’s communities hit hardest by the coronavirus, and that coronavirus policy decisions should recognize historical and present-day inequities by race and income.
Fauci says U.S. is at a ‘crossroads’ as COVID kills 2,600 a week and new Omicron variants bloom with winter coming soon - The U.S. is coming to a difficult COVID crossroads as the cold winter months approach and new immune-evasive variants of Omicron emerge, White House Chief Medical Advisor Anthony Fauci says.While the situation is certainly different from last winter when Omicron dominated all other variants, a new "variant soup" of Omicron sublineages like XBB, BQ.1, and BQ.1.1 are gaining ground across the country, wiping out key tools used to protect immune-compromised people.“We’re really at a point that may be a crossroads here. As we’re entering into the cooler months, we are starting to see the emergence of sublineage variants of Omicron,” Fauci said on the Conversations on Health Care radio show on Thursday.For months, Fauci has been warning that a new, more immune-evasive variant would emerge over the winter. He previously sounded the alarm on the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 sublineages of Omicron, because of their rapid infection rates and their apparent ability to evade antibody treatments.Fauci has assured that healthy people with vaccinations, boosters, and/or a previous natural infection from a subvariant like BA.5 will be protected from the new sublineages. However, U.S. health officials fear antibody treatments like Evusheld—a pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment to prevent COVID-19 for severely immune-compromised people—will become ineffective in the face of these new variants.Fauci also stressed in Thursday's interview that the pandemic was far from over. The number of deaths from COVID, which still averages around 2,600 a week, remains far too high, Fauci emphasized, adding “we’re still in the middle of this—it is not over. Four hundred deaths per day is not an acceptable level.”For the past two years, colder temperatures have brought seasonal upticks in COVID cases, which have then turned into massive waves of infection riding the emergence of highly transmissible new variants, like Alpha and Omicron.This year “there is this soup of variants,” Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, told the Atlantic. While no new variant has come out on top yet, Fauci and other experts are closely monitoring a pair of potentially troubling viral offshoots called BQ.1 and XBB, which may soon monopolize infections in certain parts of the world.Both these new sublineages descended from Omicron: BQ.1 comes from BA.5, while XBB comes from two different BA.2 lineages recombined into one.Experts in Asia are paying close attention to the XBB strain, which has taken a significant foothold in countries like Bangladesh and Singapore, and have called it one of the most immune-evasive variants yet.
Factbox: What are the new BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 coronavirus variants, and why it matters (Reuters) - New offshoots of the dominant BA.5 subvariant of Omicron known as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are gaining ground in the United States as the SARS-Cov-2 virus that triggered the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve. The following describes the new coronavirus subvariants and how they may impact people. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are among the more than 300 sublineages of the Omicron variant circulating globally, 95% of which are direct descendants of BA.5, according to the World Health Organization. In early July, BA.5 became the dominant subvariant of the coronavirus circulating in the United States, but in October it started giving way to BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. Both contain genetic mutations that make it harder for the immune system to recognize and neutralize the virus. That makes them better at infecting people in spite of immunity from vaccinations and prior infections. Evidence from France, however, where the variants caused a surge in cases, suggests they do not appear to be causing increased rates of hospitalizations and deaths, Dr. Eric Topol, a genomics expert and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, said on Twitter. Mutations in these two subvariants make it unlikely that the antibody drug bebtelovimab sold by Eli Lilly and Co will be effective at neutralizing them, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The drug, which is used to treat mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in adults and children, remains authorized for all U.S. regions that may be experiencing infections from other subvariants of the virus. Such antibody treatments are vulnerable to changes in the virus because they target specific parts of the virus. Experts predict Pfizer Inc's oral antiviral treatment Paxlovid, which works by blocking an enzyme the virus needs to replicate, is expected to remain effective. It is not yet clear how these new versions of the coronavirus will affect populations in the United States, where booster uptake has been slow and COVID mitigations such as masks and social distancing have largely been abandoned. There is, however, early evidence from Pfizer and German partner BioNTech SE that their updated boosters, which target BA.5 and BA.4 as well as the original virus, increase levels of infection-fighting antibodies against Omicron subvariants in older adults. A study of blood from three dozen adults showed the shot increased neutralizing antibodies against the BA.4/BA.5 Omicron subvariants by fourfold compared with the original shot after one month.It is not yet clear whether that will translate into higher protection against the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants, but their close relationship to BA.5 may work in the booster's favor.
SARS-CoV-2 Omicron's newest subvariant BQ.1.1 shows extraordinary immune evasion potential against vaccine sera - In a recent study posted to the bioRxiv* preprint server, researchers at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Los Alamos National Laboratory pursued immunological evidence of why BQ.1.1 prevalence swiftly increased in areas where Omicron BA.5 was dominant in the United States (US).Omicron BQ.1.1 cases increased rapidly in the US, and Omicron BA.5 cases declined to less than half of what they were not long ago, when Omicron BA.5 was the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant. Therefore, it is crucial to determine how BQ.1.1 is able to evade neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) induced by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection. In the present study, researchers assessed nAb titers in 16 individuals who were vaccinated and boosted with the monovalent mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine in 2021. Next, they evaluated nAb titers in 15 individuals who received the monovalent mRNA boosters in 2022. Additionally, they evaluated 18 bivalent mRNA booster recipients, most of whom received three vaccine doses, although some had also received two or four COVID-19 vaccine doses.Following the monovalent BNT162b2 boost, median nAb titers to WA1/2020, BA.5, BF.7, BA.2.75.2, and BQ.1.1 were 45, 695, 887, 595, 387, and 261, respectively. The authors noted that the median nAb titers against BQ.1.1 were much diminished than the median nAb titers against WA1/2020 and BA.5 by factors of 175 and 3, respectively.Compared to the uninfected 2021 cohort, most were likely infected in these cohorts, although the documented rates for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infections were as low as 33%. Also, WA1/2020 and Omicron nAb titers were higher in the two 2022 cohorts even before boosting. After boosting, their median NAb titers to WA1/2020, BA.5, BF.7, BA.2.75.2, and BQ.1.1 were 40, 515, 3693, 2399, 883, and 508, respectively.The study results showed that compared to BA.5, both BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 escaped nAbs-elicited by prior infection and vaccination more effectively. However, the effect was most pronounced for BQ.1.1, whose nAb titers were lower than BA.5 by a factor of seven across study cohorts.These findings present an immunological explanation for the prompt surge in BQ.1.1 prevalence in regions where BA.5 was dominant in the US, which has implications for both vaccine and natural immunity. Also, it puts into perspective how the presence of the R346T mutation in multiple new Omicron subvariants is likely a consequence of convergent evolution.
The Latest COVID-19 Variants Can Evade Vaccine Protection, According to New Data - New lab data suggest that vaccines and prior infections may not offer enough protection against several new COVID-19 variants cropping up in the U.S. and around the world.Dr. David Ho, director of Columbia University’s Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center (ADARC), and his team reported the results from a set of studies at an ADARC symposium. They showed how well some of the latest variants—BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1, which were all derived from Omicron—are evading both vaccine-derived and infection-derived immunity.These new variants all have mutations in the region that binds to cells and infects them, which means that they’re highly transmissible, as prior Omicron variants were. BQ.1 is growing steadily in France, according to the public database of SARS-CoV-2 variants GISAID. By mid-November, European health officials expect the variant to account for 50% of cases in Europe, and to become the dominant strain in that region by early 2023. XBB is growing quickly in Singapore and India. Both variants have spawned new strains that have each picked up an additional mutation to create BQ.1.1 and XBB.1. As of early November, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, combined, now make up about 35% of new cases in the U.S.Other studies have found similar drops in antibody protection against BQ.1 among vaccinated people. But Ho’s group conducted what is likely the most comprehensive look to date at BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1, and how existing immunity—from the original mRNA vaccines, the new Omicron boosters, and natural infections—stands up to them. Scientists took blood sera from 88 people in five groups (below) and exposed it to the four variants in the lab. Here’s what they found:
- Fully vaccinated and once-boosted people (three total shots of the original mRNA vaccines) had 37- and 55-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, and about 70-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1.
- Fully vaccinated and twice-boosted people (four total shots of the original mRNA vaccines) had 43- and 81-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original virus, and 145- and 155-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1, respectively.
- Fully vaccinated and twice-boosted people (three shots of the original vaccine plus one Omicron booster) had 24- and 41-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original virus, and 66- and 85-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1, respectively.
- Fully vaccinated people who had received the original booster and who had been infected with BA.2 had 20- and 29-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original virus, and 103- and 135-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1, respectively.
- Fully vaccinated people who had received the original booster and who had been infected with BA.4 or BA.5 had 13- and 31-fold lower neutralization against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, respectively, than they did against the original virus, and 86- and 96-fold lower neutralization against XBB and XBB.1, respectively.
The results show that people who had been infected with BA.2, BA.4, or BA.5 generally experienced the smallest drop in neutralizing antibody levels against against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. But people who had three doses of the original vaccine and one Omicron booster produced only slightly better neutralizing antibody protection against XBB and XBB.1 than those who received three doses of the original vaccine. Public-health experts say that while vaccines may wane in efficacy against newer variants, they continue to protect people from severe COVID-19. There is early evidence that vaccine-induced immunity may also produce a broader range of virus-fighting antibodies over time. Still, these results are a reminder that vaccines and drug treatments need to evolve with the virus. “These new variants are extremely good at evading our antibodies and are very likely to compromise the efficacy of our vaccines,” says Ho. They may also dodge the available antibody-based treatments for COVID-19, he says. The National Institutes of Health’s COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines currently only include one monoclonal antibody therapy, bebtelovimab, because the virus has evaded all of the previously authorized antibody treatments. But in an October update, NIH scientists acknowledged that the “subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are likely to be resistant to bebtelovimab.” The drug is therefore only recommended if people either can’t take the antiviral drugs Paxlovid or remdesivir, or if these medications aren’t available. The virus can evade these treatments as well, but they remain the first line of defense against severe SARS-CoV-2.
Researchers compare the risk of myocarditis between Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines --Incidence of myocarditis, pericarditis or myopericarditis is two- to threefold higher after a second dose of the Moderna Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine when compared to the Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine; however, overall cases of heart inflammation with either vaccine are very rare, according to a study in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology. The study showed males younger than 40 years old who received the Moderna vaccine were shown to have the highest rates of myocarditis, which according to the authors, may have implications for choosing specific vaccines for certain populations.Two mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for use, Pfizer BioNTech (BNT162b2) and Moderna Spikevax (mRNA-1273), and as of March 20, 2022, more than 52 million doses of Pfizer and 22 million doses of Moderna have been administered in Canada, where this study was conducted. Clinical trials have demonstrated the vaccines are safe and monitoring of vaccinated people has shown side effects are mild and go away on their own. However, some rare, but serious, side effects have been observed after both vaccines, mainly myocarditis (inflammation of the heart).While there have been many studies on either vaccine, few studies have been conducted to directly compare the safety of the two mRNA vaccines. Researchers in this study sought to compare the risk of myocarditis, pericarditis and myopericarditis between the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines.People in the study were 18 years old or older and had received two primary doses of either Pfizer or Moderna vaccine in British Columbia, Canada, with the second dose between Jan. 1, 2021 and Sept. 9, 2021. Individuals whose first or second shot were administered outside of British Columbia or had a history of myocarditis or pericarditis within one year prior to second dose were excluded.In all, more than 2.2 million second Pfizer doses were given and more than 870,000 Moderna doses. Within 21 days of the second dose, there were a total of 59 myocarditis cases (21 Pfizer and 31 Moderna) and 41 pericarditis cases (21 Pfizer and 20 Moderna). Researchers also looked at rates per million doses and the rate was 35.6 cases per million for Moderna and 12.6 per million for Pfizer-;an almost threefold increase after Moderna shots vs. Pfizer. Comparatively, rates of myocarditis in the general population in 2018, were 2.01 per million in people under age 40 and 2.2 per million in people over age 40.Rates of myocarditis and pericarditis were higher with the Moderna vaccine in both males and females between ages 18 and 39, with the highest per million rates in males ages 18-29 after a second dose of Moderna.According to the authors, the findings support recommending certain populations receive certain vaccines to maximize benefits and minimize adverse events.
New Omicron subvariant driving up cases in US, China records 6-month high | 5 points - New offshoots of the dominant BA.5 subvariant of Omicron, known as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, are gaining ground in the United States. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated that these Omicron subvariants accounted for about 35 per cent of coronavirus cases in the country. Meanwhile, China has reported its highest number of infections in six months, a day after health officials said they were sticking with strict coronavirus curbs, also known as the "Zero Covid Policy." Meanwhile, India on Sunday reported 1,132 Covid cases and 14 deaths. But the active cases have declined to 14,839 cases. The Covid recovery rate has increased to 98.78 per cent.BQ.1.1 made up nearly 19 per cent of circulating variants, and BQ.1 was estimated to make up 16.5 per cent of circulating cases in the week of November, Reuters reported. According to the World Health Organization, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are among the more than 300 sublineages of the Omicron variant circulating globally, 95 per cent of which are direct descendants of BA.5. Both contain genetic mutations that make it harder for the immune system to recognise and neutralise the virus. That makes them better at infecting people in spite of immunity from multiple rounds of vaccinations and prior infections. Meanwhile, in China, the number of fresh infections has touched a six-month high. China recorded 4,420 new locally transmitted Covid-19 infections on Saturday, even amid strict curbs. China's capital, Beijing, reported 43 symptomatic cases when Zero Covid Policy is in effect nearly three years into the pandemic. The approach involves lockdowns, quarantines, frequent testing, and a drastic decrease in inbound travel.
Repeat coronavirus infections can be dangerous, study suggests - For people who have endured one bout of covid-19, a question looms: How protected are they from bad outcomes if they’re infected again? Not as much as some might think, according to a study from the Department of Veterans Affairs of nearly 41,000 people who suffered reinfection.Ziyad Al-Aly, one of the study’s authors and chief of research and development at the VA St. Louis Health Care System, said a second, third or further infections can lead to health complications just as the first can.“Getting it a second time is almost like you’re trying your chance again with Russian roulette,” Al-Aly, who is also a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University, said. “You may have dodged a bullet the first time, but each time you get the infection you are trying your luck again.” The paper, published Thursday in the journal Nature Medicine, involves an analysis of electronic medical records in the VA’s national health-care database. It found that patients with reinfections tended to have more complications in various organ systems both during their initial illness and longer term, and they were more likely to be diagnosed with long covid than people who did not get another infection. The findings applied regardless of people’s vaccination status or whether they were boosted. The study included a review of the medical records of 5.8 million patients, 443,588 of whom had been infected once, and 40,947 who had been infected two or more times. The median time between the first and second infection was 191 days. Compared with people who experienced only one infection, those who were reinfected had a twofold increased risk of death, threefold increased risk of hospitalization, twofold increased risk of long covid, threefold increase in risk of heart problems and blood clotting disorders, and twofold increased risk of fatigue. But the research is just a small part of the story on reinfection and SARS-CoV-2. When the pandemic began, everyone’s immune system started in a similar place of never having encountered the virus. Nearly three years later, some people have been infected and reinfected with different variants and vaccinated and boosted with different products creating great diversity in our immune systems across the world — meaning there are no simple answers to how previous infection will affect someone’s response to reinfection. More than 80 percent of Americans are estimated to have been infected with the coronavirus at least once.
Investigating COVID-19 deaths for children and young people - A new study conducted in England shows that the risk of death due to COVID-19 remains very low for children and young people, and most deaths occur in those with underlying health conditions. Marta Bertran of the U.K. Health Security Agency, London, and colleagues present these findings November 8 in the open access journal PLOS Medicine. Pediatric deaths due to COVID-19 are rare, and because infection tends to be mild in children and young people compared to adults, it can be challenging to assess COVID-19 severity and cause of death for those with serious underlying health conditions. In addition, because death due to COVID-19 is so uncommon for children, limited data exist to examine such fatalities at the population level. To improve our understanding of pediatric COVID-19 deaths—and which factors might be linked to an increased risk of death—Bertran and colleagues analyzed detailed data on everyone aged less than 20 years in England who died within 100 days of a confirmed COVID-19 infection between March 2020 and December 2021. The analysis showed that, of 185 total deaths that occurred, 81 were due to COVID-19. Of those who died from COVID-19, 75% had underlying health conditions, primarily severe neurodisability and conditions involving a compromised immune system. Half of COVID-19 deaths occurred within seven days of infection and the majority within 30 days of infection. These findings confirm that death due to COVID-19 remained rare in children and young people even as new variants of the SARS-Cov-2 virus emerged during the study period. They also highlight which children might be at greater risk of COVID-19 death, which could help inform parents, clinicians, and policymakers about prevention through vaccination, for example, and seeking early treatment.
The reason why the new variant of covid-19 is called the Hound of Hades - Cases of the new Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have been growing rapidly in the U.S., and have now been detected in five European Union countries, including Spain, and are expected to cause an exponential increase in infections over the coming weeks. In France they already account for 25% of cases, 10% of new infections in Belgium and 5% of new infections in Italy. In Spain, at the moment, they represent 2.7% of active infections, and are expected to be the dominant strain by the end of November or the beginning of December, according to the Minister of Health ,Carolina Darias. According to Gregory Poland, a scientist at Mayo Clinic: “These variants (BQ.1 and BQ.1.1) can quite possibly lead to a very bad surge of illness this winter in the U.S. as it’s already starting to happen in Europe and the UK.” The European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) designated sublineage BQ.1 and its sublineages, such as BQ.1.1, as variants of interest . Based on their current prevalence and the rate of growth that is being observed, the European body believes that these variants will exceed 50% of cases in Europe at the end of November or beginning of December. For Carolina Darias, it could mean a higher rate of infections bypassing immunisation; she asked vulnerable groups to get vaccinated in the first phase of the fall campaign, which is focused on those over 60, with the aim of ensuring that the arrival of autumn and the cold weather has a lower impact than would otherwise be the case. Scientists fear that the number of mutations may cause the antibodies already generated by the new vaccines and previous infections during the pandemic to fail to recognize the virus in its latest evolutionary state. European experts have warned: “the increase observed in the growth rate of these sublineages is probably due mainly to immune escape.” According to scientist Cornelius Römer, from the University of Basel, speaking in early October, BQ.1.1 “will drive a wave of variants in Europe and North America before the end of November”, and states that there is evidence that this new variant may be up to 10% more contagious. The name for this new variant of Omicron comes from Germany. Both BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have been christened the ‘Hound of Hell’ or ‘Cerberus’, referring to the dog of the god Hades in Greek mythology. According to the myths, Cerberus is a three-headed monster that guards the gates of the Underworld to prevent the dead from leaving. The beast was usually described as having a serpent for a tail, and snakes protruding from various parts of its body.
New York is becoming an 'emerging hotspot' for the XBB family of COVID variants that hit Singapore, as BQ closes in on U.S. dominance -A wave of infections involving an extremely immune-evasive COVID strain that started spreading in New York and recently reached California is about to engulf the rest of the U.S., according to a report from federal health officials released Friday.Two variants of the BQ strain are projected to comprise 35% of U.S. infections, according to a COVID forecast from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That puts the variant family just slightly behind BA.5, which still led U.S. cases on Friday, at an estimated 39%. https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1588561730162266112 BQ cases may very well dominate the CDC’s next weekly forecast, scheduled for next Friday. Experts—including Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute—have said for weeks that BQ would likely serve as the primary force behind the next U.S. wave of COVID cases. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1580930387873701889 Bebtelovimab, the last remaining lab-made antibody drug effective on all COVID variants, is not expected to work against BQ and its close relative, BQ.1.1, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said Friday. That’s bad news for immunocompromised patients, many of whom need extra help from hospital-administered monoclonal antibody treatments to fight off the virus after being infected.Meanwhile, a potential U.S. wave of equally concerning variant XBB is brewing, Raj Rajnarayanan, assistant dean of research and associate professor at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Ark., tells Fortune.As usual, the epicenter is New York. The Empire State is considered a bellwether when it comes to COVID waves because of its volume of incoming international travelers and robust genetic sequencing capabilities.The variant—a recombinant, or combination, of two strains of Omicron—recently made headlines for spiking in well-vaccinated Singapore. Along with BQ.1.1, it’s considered to be the most immune-evasive COVID variant so far, surpassing the immune-evasiveness of shared ancestor BA.5, which was dominant around the globe this summer. https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1588565460043599873 Of the 35 cases of XBB or descendants identified in the U.S. so far, nearly half have been identified in New York, Rajnarayanan says, citing data from GISAID, an international research organization that tracks changes in COVID and the flu virus. Most of those cases were of XBB.1, a “child” variant of XBB that shows an advantage in transmissibility, but about which little else is known.The CDC has yet to report on XBB in the U.S., and won’t until it comprises more than 1% of sequenced cases nationally for a minimum of one week. For now, XBB cases are grouped in with BA.5, its parent lineage. A variety of Omicron variants are spiking in various countries this fall—and variant trackers have been waiting to see if XBB and BQ will battle for dominance in the same location. That may or may not happen in the U.S. An XBB wave could follow the country’s BQ wave, experts say. Or, both may become dominant. “XBB and BQs at the same time will be something,” Dr. Ryan Gregory, a professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada, told Fortune. XBB may combine with a BQ variant, and the new child variant may lead the pack, Gregory says. But one thing is certain, according to Rajnarayanan: XBB is a good candidate to trigger the next wave in New York, where it currently comprises between 2% and 3% of sequenced COVID cases.
NEW: Evasive COVID-19 BF.7 variant growing in Clark County; cases drop after a month of increases — A steady rise in COVID-19 cases during the month of October has ended, but a new variant has appeared in Clark County, data released Wednesday shows. The omicron BF.7 variant — also known as BA.5.2.1.7 — jumped up to 14.6% of the cases sequenced in Clark County, according to the Southern Nevada Health District. BF.7 accounted for only 2.5% of the cases the previous week. National media reports indicate the variant spread in early October, but it had not made a significant appearance in Southern Nevada until this week, when SNHD detected it in seven of a total 48 cases that analyzed in DNA sequencing. BF.7 is currently causing a wave of cases in China. The BF.7 variant is known as the most evasive strain of omicron, able to escape the antibodies from earlier illnesses or vaccinations better than the many other omicron sub-variants, according to two studies. The symptoms are about the same as illnesses associated with other omicron strains. Clark County’s COVID-19 case levels dropped over the past week, according to the 14-day moving average (per 100,000 population) published by the Nevada Department of Health and Human Services. The average dropped to 117 cases per day in Clark County, a 7.1% decline over last week. Statewide, the average is at 151 cases per day, an 8.4% drop. COVID-19 hospitalizations, however, continue to increase. In Clark County and statewide, levels have increased for three straight weeks. Hospitals count 164 patients with COVID-19 statewide, an increase of 23 from last week. In Clark County, the patient count increased by 16, now standing at 127 patients. Nevada reported 15 COVID-19 deaths, with 10 from Clark County. A total of 9,030 people have died of COVID-19 in Clark County, and 11,570 statewide. Wastewater surveillance was not updated this week. COVID-19 in the sewers: New dashboard unveiled for Southern Nevada Variations in week-to-week counts can exaggerate the seriousness of the problem when case numbers have dropped to their lowest points since early in the pandemic, but the numbers are a reminder that the virus is still present in the community. If you have symptoms, get tested and avoid spreading the virus to others. If you haven’t been vaccinated, go to the Southern Nevada Health District’s website for information on getting a shot, or updating your immunity by getting a booster. The SNHD’s report on variants shows the BA.5 variant is still prevalent, detected in 68.6% of COVID-19 cases. BF.7 — described at the top of this story — was found in 14.6% of Clark County’s cases that went through DNA sequencing.
Cognitive Deficits in Long Covid-19 | NEJM -Some patients who have recovered from an infection have reported transient or even lasting cognitive dysfunction. This includes patients who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, many of whom, including those with mild disease, have reported deficits in attention, executive functioning, language, processing speed, and memory — symptoms collectively referred to as “brain fog.” Together with increased incidence of anxiety, depression, sleep disorder, and fatigue, this syndrome of cognitive impairment contributes substantially to the morbidity of post–Covid-19 conditions (also called “long Covid”). Nevertheless, Covid-related brain fog is difficult to diagnose and to separate from other reasons for the symptoms in an individual patient, because neurocognitive longitudinal data for patients are rarely available. (On a population level, however, cognitive decline after Covid has been documented.1) Physicians are generally reluctant to accept a condition as an organic disease without a pathobiologic concept or the ability to measure the disease in a given patient, as is the case with post-Covid brain fog. Results of a study recently reported by Fernández-Castañeda and colleagues may represent a pivot in our understanding of this sequela.2 Using a mouse model, the investigators explored how mild respiratory infections of SARS-CoV-2 could lead to neuroinflammation and subsequent brain damage through multilineage neural cell dysregulation (Figure 1). The investigators modeled mild respiratory Covid in a mouse expressing the viral-entry receptor for SARS-CoV-2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 in humans) in the trachea and lung by delivering SARS-CoV-2 intranasally. They detected no SARS-CoV-2 in the brain but found signs of neuroinflammation in elevated levels of chemokines in cerebrospinal fluid and serum, each with a distinct time course. These changes led to activation of microglia in subcortical and hippocampal white-matter regions (but not in gray matter), with distinct effects on specific neural cell populations. Of note, these findings were supported by similar results in a small group of patients who were found to have SARS-CoV-2 infection and no severe lung damage at the time of death. Could these findings lead to a cure for Covid-related brain fog? Several drugs that target activated microglia have been tested in preclinical models of mechanistically similar syndromes of cognitive impairment. Pexidartinib, an inhibitor of the CSF1 receptor, has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of symptomatic tenosynovial giant-cell tumors and can deplete microglia. Certain nonsteroidal antiinflammatory agents and tetracyclines can inhibit microglia. Findings from the study by Fernández-Castañeda and colleagues support the testing of microglial modulators to treat Covid-related brain fog. Study of the targeting of upstream regulators of microglial activation like CCL11 could also be beneficial.
Kids at similar risk for long COVID as adults, study suggests | CIDRAP -A large study today from Germany shows that kids and adolescents are at the same relative risk of experiencing COVID-19 symptoms 90 days or more after acute infection as adults are, according to findings in PLOS Medicine.And a new systematic review by researchers from the World Health Organization (WHO) in the same journal shows that likely two thirds of the world's population has SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.Though kids and adolescents have far fewer deaths or severe outcomes from COVID-19 infections compared to adults, little is known about long or post COVID symptoms in this age-group, or symptoms that persist for more than 12 weeks after acute infection.Researchers from the Technical University of Dresden, Germany, used data from half of the German population to determine that kids and adults have the same relative risk of experiencing post COVID symptoms at 90 days following infection.The study was based on medical records of those with COVID-19 infections confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing in all of 2020 in Germany. The authors compared the occurrence of pre-specified diagnoses, entered into the medical record at least 3 months post-infection, in COVID-19 patients to a control cohort of more than 750,000 people with matched age, sex and pre-existing medical conditions, without PCR-confirmed COVID-19.The COVID group included 11,950 children and adolescents—67% of whom were younger than 12—and 145,184 adults aged 18 or older.Kids and teens with COVID were 30% more likely than controls to have documented health problems 3 months or more after COVID-19 infection than COVID-negative controls (436.91 vs 335.98 per 1,000 person-years; incident rate ratio [IRR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25 to 1.35; P < 0.01).Adults with COVID-19, by comparison, were 33% more likely than controls to have health problems in the same timeframe (615.82 vs 464.15 per 1,000 person-years; IRR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.31 to 1.34, P < 0.01). Martin Roessler, PhD, the lead author of the study, said there were significant symptom overlap among kids and adults who experienced symptoms 90 days or more after acute infection."We found five identical outcomes among the 10 outcomes with the highest relative risk among children/adolescents and adults. These symptoms are cough, fever, headache, malaise/fatigue/exhaustion, throat or chest pain," he told CIDRAP News.Other symptoms were more commonly seen in adults, but not kids. Those included a loss of taste or smell, fever, and shortness of breath.Daniel Blatt, MD, a pediatric infectious disease physician at the post-COVID clinic at Norton Children's Hospital in Louisville, Kentucky, said he was not surprised by the study's findings."It's unclear if long COVID is the same in children and adults, in terms of pathophysiology, but it's just as real," he said. Blatt, who was not involved in the study, said his clinic also collects data on children and long COVID. He said the most common symptoms reported in his patients are fatigue, anxiety, and "brain fog," followed by some shortness of breath or muscle pain.
Study suggests Paxlovid eases long-COVID symptoms | CIDRAP --Paxlovid—the antiviral combination used to treat acute COVID-19 infection—appears to reduce symptoms of long COVID, researchers from the Veterans Administration (VA) yesterday reported, based on a large data set.Paxlovid is an oral SARS-CoV-2 protease inhibitor (nirmatrelvir) that is given with a low dose of the HIV antiviral drug ritonavir to amplify protease inhibitor levels. It was authorized for emergency use in December 2021, and research teams are also exploring if the drug can prevent or treat long COVID.The team published its findings on the preprint servermedRxiv, which means the data haven't been peer reviewed yet.Researchers examined data from 56,340 veterans who tested positive for COVID-19 between Mar 1, 2022, and Jun 30, 2022, who weren't hospitalized on the day of the test, had at least one risk factor for progression to severe disease, and survived the first 30 days after their diagnosis.Of the group, 9,217 were treated with Paxlovid within 5 days of the positive test and 47,123 didn't receive antiviral or antibody treatment. The group's mean age was 65, and 12% were women.The group treated with Paxlovid had a 25% decreased risk of developing 10 of 12 long-COVID conditions, including heart disease, blood disorders, fatigue, liver disease, kidney disease, muscle pain, neurocognitive impairment, and shortness of breath. Researchers, however, didn't find a reduction in new-onset diabetes and cough.Regarding the decreased risk, the team found that the benefits progressively increased along with the number of risk factors and was most pronounced in those who had five or more risk factors.The drug was also associated with 48% less risk of death and 30% less risk of hospitalization.When the investigators looked at patient outcomes in more detail, they found that the decreased risks of long COVID were evident, despite whether the illness was the patient's first infection or whether people were vaccinated.
Melatonin could be a potential therapy for long-COVID symptoms -A recent review published in the journal Biomolecules discussed the potential uses of melatonin in treating brain fog and chronic fatigue syndrome or myalgic encephalomyelitis symptoms associated with long coronavirus disease (COVID). An emerging concern associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is long COVID or clinical sequelae consisting of chronic fatigue, memory loss, muscle weakness, reduced pulmonary capacity during exertion, persistent fever, myalgia, epileptic seizures, stroke, and other cardiovascular complications. Patients who have recovered from severe COVID-19 experience these debilitating symptoms for months after recovery.Furthermore, studies that examined vaccinated individuals who experienced breakthrough severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections found a high incidence of long COVID symptoms such as deteriorated musculoskeletal, neurological, and mental health among these individuals after recovery. This indicates that vaccination provides only limited protection against long COVID.Melatonin is a cryoprotective hormone and chemical that exhibits anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and immunoregulatory activity and has been seen to impair viral infections, play a role in circadian rhythm maintenance, and be effective against diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases. It is also involved in the activation of glutathione-synthesizing enzymes. Melatonin could potentially be a therapeutic agent in treating long COVID symptoms. Brain fog is a general term used to defineimpaired cognitive function, such as difficulty concentrating, loss of working and short-term memory, and difficulty with verbal and non-verbal methods of learning and mathematical problem-solving. While brain fog can be a consequence of various factors such as sleep deprivation, malnutrition, pregnancy or menopause-related hormonal changes, or even chemotherapy, it was the most reported symptom among COVID-19-recovering patients with no history of other diseases or hypoxia.An intelligence test in the United Kingdom detected cognitive impairments in a significant number of individuals with COVID-19. Symptoms included memory loss, disorientation, and reduced mental energy Melatonin is a hormone naturally produced in all aerobically respiring life forms, and it performs antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, immunostimulant, and neuroprotective functions in the body. It reduces the pro-inflammatory response of macrophages, activates nuclear erythroid 2-related factor 2, and suppresses the activation of nuclear factor (NF)-κB. Melatonin is also known to balance inflammatory responses by decreasing the levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as interleukins (IL) 1β, 6, and 8, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, and increasing anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10.Melatonin also regulates the amyloid β (Aβ) metabolism associated with Alzheimer’s disease. Studies with transgenic Alzheimer’s disease models have shown that melatonin can control neuroinflammation by interacting with Aβ40 and Aβ42 and increasing protein degradation. Furthermore, the ability of melatonin to regulate circadian rhythms and sleep patterns has been shown to improve cognitive function and sleep in patients in the early stages of cognitive decline.Melatonin is also known to exhibit therapeutic activity against the various symptoms of ME/CFS, such as oxidative stress, pro-inflammatory state, mitochondrial and bioenergetic dysregulation, and disruption of the gut/mucosal barrier. The authors believe that although melatonin exhibits anti-inflammatory and immunostimulant properties that many studies have reported being effective against COVID-19, it has not been promoted as a therapeutic option, possibly due to its easy availability and non-patentability, which makes it an unattractive target for pharmaceutical industries. They recommend clinical trials to explore the use of melatonin as a treatment for long COVID symptoms.
Does vitamin D reduce COVID-19 severity? -A recent review posted to the Research Square* preprint server examined published studies for a consistent association between vitamin D levels and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. A recent review posted to the Research Square* preprint server examined published studies for a consistent association between vitamin D levels and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) enters the body through the respiratory system, where the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binds to the angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE-2) receptors on the bronchial and nasal epithelia.The entry and rapid replication of the virus disrupt the epithelial-endothelial barrier, causing inflammatory response dysregulation and triggering a cytokine storm. The increased immune response during the cytokine storm can damage tissues and organs and has been linked to long-term fatigue and systemic complications experienced after recovery. Vitamin D regulates the balance between pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, with studies showing significant protective effects of vitamin D supplementation against acute respiratory infections. The active form of vitamin D, calcitriol, is also known to activate antiviral peptides. Understanding the association between vitamin D levels and COVID-19 severity could provide methods to protect individuals against severe outcomes proactively.The results were near significant when median serum vitamin D levels in COVID-19-positive individuals were compared to those in COVID-19-negative individuals. However, when vitamin D levels were compared with the progression of COVID-19 severity, the results were not statistically significant. The serum vitamin D levels were also not significantly different when compared between COVID-19 survivors and mortalities.The average median serum vitamin D values for COVID-19-positive patients was 27.08 nmol/L, compared to the 48.67 nmol/L among COVID-19-negative individuals. With a p-value of 0.059, this difference was considered near significant.The review examined a study that evaluated the impact of vitamin D on inflammatory cytokine levels and found significantly higher levels of pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-6 in individuals with vitamin D deficiency. Patients whose vitamin D levels were higher than 75 nmol/L showed lower inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein. However, studies showed no significant direct association between C-reactive protein and vitamin D levels. The study also reported lower COVID-19 survival probability among patients with vitamin D levels below 30 nmol/L.A study comparing vitamin D levels between inpatients who exhibited severe symptoms of COVID-19 and outpatients with milder disease symptoms found that patients with severe symptoms had significantly lower median vitamin D levels (less than 12 ng/mL). Although the difference was not statistically significant, the review found that individuals with higher vitamin D levels had fewer median hospitalization days. However, three contrasting studies also found that patients with higher vitamin D levels stayed hospitalized for longer. Furthermore, no statistically significant difference was found in the vitamin D levels of individuals with moderate and severe COVID-19 symptoms. The t-test results also reported no significant difference in the vitamin D levels of COVID-19 survivals and mortalities. To summarize, the review examined various studies that compared median serum vitamin D levels to factors such as COVID-19-positive cases, the severity of the infection, disease survivors, deaths, levels of inflammatory cytokines and markers such as C-reactive protein, and the number of days spent in the hospital. Overall, the results reported no significant associations between vitamin D levels and COVID-19 severity, mortality, or hospitalization duration. Vitamin D deficiency seemed to be associated with the likelihood of being COVID-19 positive, but the nearly significant association decreased when examined at a larger scale.
COVID testing programs may increase risky behavior, study finds --Frequent, mandatory surveillance testing was one of the techniques deployed in some jurisdictions in an attempt to control COVID-19, but new research shows that such testing may have the unintended consequence of yielding riskier behavior by those enrolled in the testing. Based on a false sense of security, students who participated in frequent COVID-19 testing at two universities engaged in more behavior known to increase the risk of spreading the virus than they might have otherwise, according to results of surveys led by University of Wyoming economists. "Recent research provides some evidence that people increase risky behavior in response to facemask wearing and vaccines, but this is the first study to examine the behavioral responses to mandatory testing," wrote researchers Chian Jones Ritten, Linda Thunstrom and Todd Cherry, of UW, and J.D. Wulfhorst, of the University of Idaho. "Overall, (our) results suggest that students perceived that the mandatory testing policy decreased their risk of contracting COVID-19, and that this perception led to higher participation in COVID-risky events." The research findings were published Friday in PNAS Nexus. During the fall 2020 semester, UW required all on-campus undergraduate students to be tested for COVID twice weekly, while the University of Idaho tested a small random sample of students weekly. Both universities required masks for all indoor events on campus. The researchers surveyed students at both universities and found that in both cases, respondents who were tested more frequently perceived that they were at a reduced risk of contracting the virus. Those individuals also more frequently attended "risky" events such as large and small indoor gatherings and frequented restaurants and bars. From a public health standpoint, such behavior is problematic because inaccurate and delayed test results can result in people who believe they're not infected carrying the virus and infecting others. Although perhaps unlikely, it is possible that the benefits of testing programs could be entirely offset by increased viral transmission, the researchers say.
Coronavirus dashboard for November 8: the new alphabet soup of variants fails to generate a new wave (so far) - Graphics)-Biobot has not updated since late last week, showing COVID particles at or near 6 month lows both nationwide: As expected, the CDC’s variant update last Friday showed that BA.5 was down to 40% of all cases, with the alphabet soup of new variants descended from BA.2 and BA.5 making up the other 60%: Regionally, (not shown) BA.5 is particularly low, at only 25% of all cases, in NY and NJ. Confirmed cases remain higher than their recent low of 34,300 set 2.5 weeks ago, at 39,600, but the trend is more flat than rising: The same of true of hospitalizations, at 24,800 almost 2,000 above their recent lows: Deaths have continued to decline, at 316 close to a 6 month low, and only higher than about 4 months during the entire pandemic: A regional breakout of confirmed cases shows an increase only in the Midwest, while the Northeast has the highest absolute level per capita. Cases are generally flat in the majority of States and Puerto Rico. Cases have been declining in the 6 New England States (shown below plus NY and NJ): and also Washington State. Cases are rising in CO, NM, IN, KY, LA, MD, MO, NE, NV, OH, SD, UT, and WV: Although note that the increases are relatively small except in NM, CO, and KY. It appears the winter wave is slowly beginning, but it is encouraging that it remains so low with the alphabet soup of new variants making up the majority of cases. My suspicion is that cases will rise throughout the holidays, with all of the indoor get-togethers; but that the wave will be more like the recent BA.2.12.1 and BA.5 waves than either of the past two huge winter waves.
11% Fall In US Covid Casualties In A Fortnight - An 11 percent fall in Covid-related casualties has been reported in the United States in the last two weeks, according to the New York Times. At the same time, Covid positive cases increased by 6 percent in the last fortnight. With 7503 new cases of coronavirus infection reporting on Sunday, the total U.S. Covid cases reached 97,741,796, as per Johns Hopkins University's latest data. 12 Covid deaths were reported the same day, taking the total number of people losing their lives due to coronavirus infection in the country to 1,072,594. U.S. hospitals reported a 2 percent increase in the number of Covid patients in the last two weeks. The number of I.C.U. admissions due to the worse stage of the viral disease increased by 1 percent. 27,419 people are hospitalized due to Covid. 3,148 of these patients are admitted in intensive care units. The nation's test positivity rate has increased to 8.7 percent. A total of 97,206,960 people in te U.S. have recovered from the killer disease so far, Worldometers data shows. As per the latest data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 227,377,753 Americans, or 68.5 percent of the eligible population, have been administered both doses of Covid vaccine so far. This includes 93.4 percent of people above 65. 8.4 percent of the eligible population, or 26,290,124 people, have already received bivalent COVID-19 vaccines. The bivalent vaccines include a component of the original virus strain to provide broad protection against the diseases and a component of the omicron variant to provide better protection against Covid caused by the omicron variant. 469 additional deaths were reported globally on Sunday, taking the total number of people who lost their lives due to the pandemic so far to 6,600,793.
COVID variants BQ.1/BQ.1.1 make up 44% of U.S. cases - CDC (Reuters) -The U.S. national public health agency said on Friday that Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 were estimated to account for about 44.2% of COVID-19 cases in the country for the week ending Nov. 12, compared with 32.6% in the previous week.The two variants, which are closely related to Omicron's BA.5 sub-variant that drove COVID-19 cases in United States earlier in the year, made up less than 10% of total cases in the country last month, but currently have surpassed Omicron's BA.5, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. BQ.1.1 accounted for nearly 24.1% of circulating variants and BQ.1 was estimated to make up 20.1% of circulating cases for the week ending Nov. 12, the U.S. CDC said. While there is no evidence linked to the increased severity of the new variants compared to BA.4 and BA.5, they have shown an increasing presence in Europe, Singapore, Canada, among other places. The rising trend has lead regulators and vaccine manufacturers to monitor the new variants more closely in case they start to evade protection offered by current vaccines. The BA.5 subvariant is estimated to make up about 29.7% of cases in the United Sates, compared with nearly 41.1% in the week ended Nov. 5, according to the CDC.
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Start to Increase as Omicron Subvariants BQ.1.1, BQ.1 Spread - Coronavirus cases in the U.S. are on the rise as a pair of concerning omicron subvariants are spreading.COVID-19 infections have been trending downward in the U.S. since August but increased about 10% over the past two weeks, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More than 40,000 new cases are reported on average each day, but that is likely a massive undercount due to at-home tests that don’t get reported.The uptick comes as experts are predicting a fall and winter coronavirus wave. While COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations are elevated but stable, experts have raised concerns about the capacity of health care systems as the flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, surge.Experts are pushing updated COVID-19 booster shots ahead of the holidays in the hopes that they will stunt a potential coronavirus wave. But uptake of the shots hasn’t been as high as the Biden administration wants.“It's incredibly effective, but the truth is, not enough people are getting it,” President Joe Bidensaid last month about the shots. “We have to change that so we can all have a safe and healthy holiday season.” Less than 10% of the U.S. population has gotten the new booster shots, which target the omicron strain as well as the original strain. The vast majority of coronavirus cases in the U.S. are from the omicron variant, with two subvariants rising rapidly. BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 made up 44% of the new coronavirus cases this week, according to CDCdata. That’s up from more than 32% of infections last week. The pair is particularly concerning because they appear to be highly contagious and adept at evading previous immunity. “We’re really at a point that may be a crossroads here,” leading infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci said in a radio interview last week. “As we’re entering into the cooler months, we are starting to see the emergence of sublineage variants of omicron.”
Omicron BQ variants resistant to antibody treatments are becoming dominant in U.S. - Omicron subvariants resistant to key antibody treatments will soon make up a majority of new Covid infections in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 now make up 44% of new Covid cases compared to 32% last week, according to CDC data. These subvariants will likely become dominant in the next week. The once dominant omicron BA.5, meanwhile, is being displaced and now makes up 29% of new infections. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 pose a special threat to people who have severely compromised immune systems, such as organ transplant patients and people on cancer chemotherapy. People with compromised immune systems often do not mount a sufficient response to the Covid vaccines and as a consequence need additional medications to protect them from the virus. Many people with moderate or severely compromised immune systems take an antibody cocktail called Evusheld to protect them from severe disease. It is administered as two injections every six months. But BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are likely resistant to Evusheld, according to the National Institutes of Health. This leaves people with compromised immune systems increasingly vulnerable as these subvariants become dominant. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are also likely resistant to bebtelovimab, a monoclonal antibody people with compromised immune systems can take to prevent severe disease from Covid after an infection. Although Pfizer's antiviral Paxlovid remains effective, organ transplant patients often cannot take the pill because of the way it interacts with other medications they need. White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, in a radio interview last week, said the U.S. is at a crossroads in the pandemic as the more immune evasive BQ subvariants increase weekly. "The thing that's of concern to us is that some of our tools in our armamentarium may be negated if in fact these newer variants become much more dominant than they are," Fauci said And there are no replacements for drugs like Evusheld on the way. White House Covid response coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha has blamed Congress for failing to pass additional funding for the nation's pandemic response. Republicans have blocked more Covid money since the spring. "We had hoped that over time as the pandemic went along, as our fight against this virus went along, we would be expanding our medicine cabinet," Jha told reporters at the White House last month. "Because of lack of congressional funding that medicine cabinet has actually shrunk and that does put vulnerable people at risk," Jha said.
Omicron variants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 now dominant in U.S. - Two new omicron subvariants have become dominant in the United States, raising fears they could fuel yet another surge of COVID-19 infections, according to estimates released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The subvariants — called BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 -- appear to be among the most adept yet at evading immunity from vaccination and previous infection, and have now overtaken the BA.5 omicron subvariant that has dominated in the U.S. since the summer. "It's a little bit eerily familiar," says Dr. Jeremy Luban of the University of Massachusetts, who's been tracking variants since the pandemic began. "This time of year last year we were optimistic. We were coming out of the delta wave, and it was steadily decreasing, and we went into Thanksgiving to wake up to omicron. So there is this sort of déjà vu feeling from last year," Luban says. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, had been quickly gaining ground in the U.S. in recent weeks. On Friday, they officially overtook BA.5, accounting for an estimated 44% of all new infections nationwide and nearly 60% in some parts of the country, such as New York and New Jersey, according to the CDC's estimates. BA.5 now accounts for an estimated 30% of all new infections nationwide. Recent laboratory studies indicate that new mutations in the virus's spike protein appear to make BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 as much as seven times more "immune-evasive" than BA.5. But even if the new subvariants do surge this winter, most experts think any uptick in infections won't hit as hard as the first two winter surges of the pandemic. "We are hoping that the amount of immunity that has been induced either by prior infection or by vaccination" will protect most people from getting severely ill or dying, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House medical advisor, told NPR. That said, a new study suggests that getting reinfected with the virus still can pose significant risks, both for short term and long-term complications, including an increased risk of hospitalization, symptoms of long COVID and even death. "The risk of reinfection is definitely not trivial," says Ziyad Al-Aly, an assistant professor of medicine at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and an author of the new study. "So going into the winter surge now people should do their best to try to prevent getting reinfected." "You're basically playing Russian Roulette again," he says. "You may dodge the bullet the next time around, but it may not be the case."
Covid-19: New omicron variant spreading in Norway - A new Covid-19 omicron variant, BF.7, which may be more resistant to vaccines, has begun spreading throughout Norway. At the time of writing, B.A.5 is still the most common omicron variant in Norway, but BF.7 is on the rise – it is now detected in 1 in 10 virus samples in Norway analysed by the National Institute of Public Health (FHI). “We now have a situation where there is a lot of infection throughout Europe, but we have vaccinated the vast majority (of people in Norway),” Assistant Health Director a the Norwegian Directorate of Health Espen Rostrup Nakstad said to Norwegian Broadcasting (NRK). BF.7 and a number of other variants have structural changes that can affect the vaccine people have taken and the protection the vaccine offers. “This means that we have to expect that the vaccine may not protect as well as it has done in the past, at least when it comes to infection. But it is not certain that it will have a big impact on whether you will become seriously ill or not,” Nakstad added. He added that new coronavirus variants emerge naturally. “This is a completely natural development. What you see in Europe now is that there are changes that are coming because the virus is trying to circumvent the immunity effect that we have acquired. It is completely natural for the virus to make such changes,” Nakstad explained. Health authorities are now asking people in the risk group, both for the flu and coronavirus, to get vaccinated. They also remind people to wash their hands and keep a distance from people if they feel sick.
S. Korea's new COVID-19 cases top 60,000 as fears of virus resurgence mount -- South Korea's new coronavirus cases swelled to over 60,000 on Tuesday, with a possible winter surge of the virus on the horizon. The country reported 62,273 new COVID-19 infections, including 52 from overseas, bringing the total to 25,919,183, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said. The figure compared with 58,363 cases a week ago, 43,741 two weeks ago and 15,465 four weeks ago, showing a sustained increase in infections. The average daily cases for the past seven days were 43,370. The country added 30 deaths from COVID-19 on Tuesday, bringing the death toll to 29,420. The number of critically ill patients stood at 360, down five from a day earlier, the KDCA said. Health authorities have warned that highly contagious omicron subvariants could trigger a virus resurgence in South Korea, with cases possibly peaking as high as 200,000 in the cold winter months. A possible outbreak of a "twindemic" of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza is also fueling concerns. The government plans to announce a set of antivirus measures later this week, including ways to expand vaccine shots and oral medicines and to better protect vulnerable groups. It expanded booster shots against omicron subvariants to all adults aged over 18 the previous day.
Korea is officially in its seventh Covid-19 wave --Korea is in its seventh wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, the government declared Wednesday, and is maintaining the indoor mask mandate and the 7-day quarantine for confirmed patients. The nation reported 62,472 new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, raising the total caseload to 25,981,655, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). Wednesday’s tally was the largest since Sept. 15’s 71,444 cases. Wednesday’s cases were a 14.1 percent rise from the same day a week before, and a 53 percent increase from the same day two weeks ago. Health authorities officially acknowledged that the country is facing a new wave of the virus. “New infections are rising for four weeks in a row, and the basic reproduction number [R0] is hovering around ‘1’ for three consecutive weeks, showing signs that the winter wave is in full swing,” Minister of Interior and Safety Lee Sang-min said while presiding over a virus response meeting on Wednesday. If the R0 is larger than 1, it means the epidemic is growing, with each infectious individual infecting more than one other individual. “It is appropriate to call the current virus situation the seventh Covid-19 wave,” added Lee Sang-won, head of the epidemiological investigations team at the Headquarters, in a separate press briefing held the same day. There were 336 hospitalized Covid patients in critical or serious condition, staying above 300 for the sixth day. With the increasing number of critically- or seriously-ill patients, the occupancy rate of ICU beds across the country rose from 15.8 percent in the second week of October to 25.7 percent in the first week of November. Fifty-nine more people died of the virus overnight. Authorities believe the size of the winter wave will be similar to the level of the summer wave. They expect a peak to be reached in December or after. “Based on mathematical modeling done by the KDCA and private experts, the winter wave is expected to widely range between 50,000 to 200,000 new infections per day,” said Peck Kyong-ran, commissioner of the KDCA. “The size of the wave is expected to occur at the level of the summer wave, with a maximum of 180,000 new daily cases and a daily average of 130,000 in a week,” Peck said.
Korea expands updated COVID-19 vaccines amid resurgence concerns = Starting Monday, the administration of Pfizer's bivalent COVID-19 vaccines targeting the BA.1 subvariant of Omicron will be expanded to people aged 18 and above amid growing concerns over a resurgence of infections this winter. The single booster dose of the updated vaccine can be administered four months after completion of a primary vaccination or infection, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). The government had previously begun providing updated vaccines developed by Moderna to people in high-risk groups such as those aged 60 and above, as well as workers and residents in nursing homes. The expansion comes as the spread of the coronavirus has apparently stopped slowing down with signs of a potential resurgence this winter. The KDCA reported 36,675 new infections for Saturday, a slight decrease after the country saw over 40,000 daily infections in the previous three consecutive days. During a briefing held on Friday, the KDCA predicted that the country may see up to 200,000 daily infections in the winter, citing waning immunity levels among the population and the emergence of new variants. The authorities noted that bivalent vaccines targeting BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants developed by Pfizer will be available to people aged 18 and above from Nov. 14. After gaining approval from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety on Oct. 17, 1.18 million doses of the vaccines were shipped to the country on Nov. 3. While encouraging the public to actively receive an updated booster, the KDCA said it will announce on Wednesday detailed predictions on the winter virus situation as well as the government's response measures against the resurgence.
Korea records 54,519 new Covid-19 cases Friday - New confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Korea rose to 54,519 Friday, up by more than 10,000 from the same day the previous week, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.The number of critically ill patients was 345, and there were 40 deaths. The accumulative total of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Korea stood at 26,091,539.
Omicron variant BF.7 becomes main strain in Beijing's latest COVID-19 flare-up - Beijing's number of new infections caused by the highly transmissible Omicron variant BF.7 is rising, with surging COVID-19 community transmission and the risk of a hidden spread, local health authorities said on Thursday, adding that BF.7 has become the main strain in the latest COVID-19 flare-up.The current round of cluster infections appeared in the capital city not only due to the strong infectiousness, fast transmission and short incubation period of BF.7, a subvariant of BA.5, but also because the infection involves logistics, construction sites, schools, restaurants, hotels and other densely populated industries and places.Beijing reported 34 local confirmed cases and 61 asymptomatic infections on Wednesday. Among these infections, seven were discovered at the community level, according to local health authorities.The flare-up in Beijing started on October 27. It was caused by infections from other places and has caused a number of related cluster infections in the city. The Beijing authorities on Thursday further strengthened epidemic prevention management in public places, requiring people entering these places to take temperature measurements and show their negative nucleic acid certificates as required.Environmental disinfection and sanitation should be strictly carried out in public places to prevent the further spread of the virus. At the same time, major exhibitions including Auto China 2022, widely recognized as one of the most important automotive fairs in the world, have been temporarily suspended until further notice. The Beijing municipal government has also reminded people to stay at home and maintain safe social distancing and wear masks properly when entering public places.Beijing and North China's Tianjin Municipality have started to provide a domestically developed aerosolized adenovirus type-5 vector-based COVID-19 vaccine (Ad5-nCoV) for boostershots starting from Thursday, after it was used in a couple of cities including Shanghai. The aerosolized Ad5-nCoV vaccine was jointly developed by CanSinoBIO and researchers from the Institute of Military Medicine under the Academy of Military Sciences led by Chen Wei. It is considered to be the world's first aerosolized COVID-19 vaccine and it was approved by Chinese national authorities for emergency use as a booster in September.
China Defends ‘Zero-COVID’ Policy Despite Rising Infections - China is doubling down on its “zero-COVID” policy despite increasing coronavirus infections and growing economic and social costs. Chinese officials on Saturday said the country will continue to “unswervingly” follow the policy despite speculation that it would ease restrictions. “Practice has proved that our pandemic prevention and control policy and a series of strategic measures are completely correct, and the most economical and effective,” said Hu Xiang, a disease control official. Chinese officials often point to high COVID-19 death tolls in other countries like the United States when defending the restrictions. The U.S. reports more than 1 million deaths from the coronavirus while China reports more than 5,000, though the official death toll has been questioned by experts. Despite the government’s stance, pushback against the policy is growing, particularly after a 3-year-old boy died of carbon monoxide poisoning in the city of Lanzhou on Wednesday when restrictions delayed efforts to get him to a hospital. Traders acted on the rumors that China might ease the policy, rallying the country’s stock market. It remains possible that discussions of easing the policy are ongoing, but experts believe the change is likely to happen gradually. “All the signs are pointing to the beginning of preparation for an eventual reopening, especially given the rising cost of the ‘dynamic zero-Covid’ policy for the economy,” Goldman Sachs economists said in a Monday note, according to The Wall Street Journal. “The actual reopening is still months away as elderly vaccination rates remain low and case fatality rates appear high among those unvaccinated based on Hong Kong official data.” Implications of the policy have also hit Apple, which said in a statement that it expects lower shipments of its iPhone 14 due to “significantly reduced capacity” at its Zhengzhou factory after thousands of workers fled from lockdown policies. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases in China hit a six-month high on Sunday with nearly 5,500 infections reported. Chinese officials have suggested that the increasing infections are due at least in part to residents skirting lockdown rules.
Japan has no plans to impose restrictions as COVID-19 cases rise - As fears of a fresh wave of coronavirus infections mount, Japan’s top government spokesman said Wednesday that the Kishida administration will not impose restrictions on people’s movement if the severity of the virus behind the wave is similar to previous omicron variants. “Our basic stance is that we will carry on with our social and economic activities and will not restrict people’s behavior, while taking measures to prevent the spread of the virus,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a news conference.
What do we know about new COVID-19 Omicron subvariants XBB and BQ.1 spreading in Australia? - Australia's COVID-19 case numbers are on the rise again, with health officials signalling the arrival of new Omicron subvariants to our shores as a new wave begins. It's the first sustained uptick since the "winter wave" of Omicron subvariant BA.5, University of Melbourne public health researcher Nancy Baxter told RN Breakfast on Friday. "You have things like wastewater testing, sewage testing, and numbers are going up there [now]." Fewer people are getting tested, but of those that do, a larger proportion are testing positive. In some states, hospitalisations are increasing too. "Those are all signs that actually the decline is over, and we're starting to see the start of the new wave," Professor Baxter said. This wave is driven not by one new variant but a bunch of Omicron offshoots, signalling a "turning point" in the pandemic, according to Norelle Sherry, medical microbiologist and infectious diseases physician at the Doherty Institute. "It's no longer one big wave of a single variant being replaced by another single variant. "We're actually in more of a COVID soup — not my original phrase, but I think it's definitely apt." What new subvariants are we seeing in Australia? The Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been the sole "variant of concern" since Delta was downgraded to "previous variant of concern" in June this year. And in the year or so since Omicron was first detected, it's spun off into more than 300 subvariants (that we know of). The big one — BA.5 — might be on the decline, yet still makes up most cases reported in Australia at the moment. BA.2.75 — which was first detected in India in May and was nicknamed Centaurus — is still kicking around too.
Queenslanders advised to wear masks in some settings as Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk warns fourth COVID-19 wave is here - ABC News -The Premier says Queensland's fourth COVID-19 wave has begun, prompting authorities to recommend masks in certain settings from tomorrow. Annastacia Palaszczuk told state parliament there has been a 15 per cent increase in active cases in the past week and a doubling in the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals.She said Chief Health Officer Dr John Gerrard has advised the state's traffic light COVID-19 advisory system should switch from green to amber."It means that it is recommended that we should wear a mask in healthcare settings, on public transport and rideshares, indoors where you cannot socially distance and if you are around people who are vulnerable to COVID," Ms Palaszczuk said."This applies especially to older members of community and those at risk," she said."[The measures] are effective as of tomorrow."Ms Palaszczuk said there were 105 COVID-19 patients in the state's hospitals last Thursday, compared to 203 today."The fourth wave that we have been expecting now we believe has arrived," Ms Palaszczuk said."No-one should be alarmed. We have been living with this virus for a long time and Queenslanders know what to do."Health Minister Yvette D'Ath said the change in COVID-19 risk alert did not mean that any enforceable directions were being issued by the Chief Health Officer (CHO)."Instead, it means that the Chief Health Officer is indicating to the public that we need to raise our level of alertness, and be prepared to take measures to protect ourselves from a higher rate of community transmission," she said.Ms D'Ath said the CHO had also advised that people should take a rapid antigen test (RAT) if they were experiencing any symptoms, and any household close contact of a positive case should do a RAT every two days."I encourage all Queenslanders to take this advice," Ms D'Ath said."We know that some of the best protection against this virus comes from ensuring that we are fully up to date with our booster doses."For any person who hasn't had their third or fourth dose and is eligible to do so, I implore you to head down to your local GP or pharmacy and protect yourself in anticipation of this forthcoming wave."
Long COVID clinics ‘inundated’ as scope of problem revealed for first time --Australia’s long COVID clinics are so under-resourced patients are waiting almost a year for treatment, as the Victorian government warns it will struggle to care for the growing number of patients without extra federal funding.In a submission to a federal inquiry, the Victorian government revealed the first official modelling of long COVID, and said the disease affected 218,000 Victorians, of whom 41,000 had a severe form.Doctors at long COVID clinics across Australia told The Age and the Heraldthey were unable to cope with the caseload.“We have been inundated – because of limited resources,” said Professor Steven Faux, co-lead of the long COVID clinic at St Vincent’s Hospital in Sydney. “We’ve only got capacity to open one day a week. We’ve not got the staff, we can’t get them. I can’t find physios, I can’t find psychologists.” St Vincent’s has an 11-month waitlist, as does the clinic at the Royal Melbourne Hospital. The Age and the Herald have learnt the Austin Hospital in Heidelberg is closing its clinic later this year after it ran out of funding. “There are very limited resources and large demand,” said Associate Professor Lou Irving, head of the Royal Melbourne Hospital’s long COVID clinic. “[The resources available] is less support than they need.” The situation is far worse in regional Australia. After seeing hundreds of patients, including many Indigenous Australians, left sickened for months by the virus, Dr Sumitha Gounden established a long COVID clinic in Orange. “There are no resources at all,” she said. “There’s no one, it’s only me.”She is the only doctor consistently treating long COVID in her entire district of 276,000 people.“I should not be covering the district,” she said. “These patients are CEOs, triathlon runners, business people – at the peak of their life, having long COVID, they are not able to function. I can’t dismiss them.“We don’t have ongoing funding for our clinic,” said Dr Shidan Tosif, a consultant paediatrician at the Royal Children’s Hospital’s long COVID clinic. “It impairs our capacity to support children – which is not how it should be.” The barriers have left many with long COVID frustrated and desperate.Karen Felder spent three months seeing doctors, none of whom could help. One hospital offered her exercise therapy, which she said she couldn’t do because she was bed-bound.“There is no interest, no motivation, no focus from the government, no direction and no funding,” she said.“I got to the point where I stopped seeing doctors. The gaslighting is incredible. It’s making me sicker, to get this pushback and to not be believed.”Eventually, she was forced to seek treatment overseas at a private long COVID clinic in Britain. That country has spent almost $170 million on 89 national long COVID clinics.
UK weekly COVID-19 infections rise nearly 30% to 3.5 mln --An estimated 3.5 million people in Britain had COVID-19 in the latest week of available data, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday, up nearly 30% on the 2.7 million recorded in the previous week. "The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase across the UK," the ONS said. "These increases were likely caused by increases in infections compatible with Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5." An estimated 1 in 19 people in England were testing positive in the week to July 6, the ONS said, up from around 1 in 25 the previous week. Scotland, whose figures were for the week to July 7, had the highest infection rate in the United Kingdom, with an estimated 1 in 16 people testing positive for COVID-19.
Three quarters of UK long COVID sufferers working less -survey -More than three quarters of British people who have suffered persistent ill health following a COVID-19 infection have had to cut back or change the work they do, according to a survey on the impact of long COVID published on Wednesday. The survey of 1,002 people, conducted by market research company Censuswide in October for recruitment website Indeed, adds to signs that long COVID continues to be a factor behind widespread labour shortages in Britain. Some 98% of long COVID sufferers said the condition had limited their ability to work, 78% had needed to cut back or change their work and 19% had ceased work altogether. "Our research shows that the health emergency has become an employment crisis," said Danny Stacy, a senior adviser at Indeed. Long COVID, a collection of symptoms ranging from pain and heart palpitations to insomnia and brain fog, can last for many months after initial infection. Britain's most recent official labour market data showed that a record proportion of people classified as "economically inactive" - neither working nor looking for a job - were suffering from long-term sickness. In absolute terms, the number of working-age people who are long-term sick has risen by 378,000 since early 2020. Bank of England officials have highlighted lengthy waits for routine treatment in Britain's public healthcare system, as well as long COVID, as potential reasons for the rise, which limits the economy's ability to grow without boosting inflation. The Office for National Statistics estimates that 2.1 million people - 3.3% of the population - were suffering from long COVID as of Oct. 1, which it defined as symptoms that had lasted more than four weeks after a COVID-19 infection. Of those, 73% said long COVID was limiting their day-to-day activities, and 16% - 333,000 people - said their activities had been significantly limited. In the Indeed survey, 59% of people diagnosed with long COVID said they felt more tired, 42% felt physically weaker, 37% found it harder to concentrate and 19% were in pain when working.
US health officials are declaring the 2022-2023 flu season an epidemic - US health officials announced on Friday that the 2022-2023 flu season had already crossed its epidemic threshold, with cases, hospitalizations and deaths almost doubling compared to the previous week. The current outbreak of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and multiple highly immune-evading subvariants of Omicron that are now dominant are only adding to the strain that is evolving into a severe health crisis across the country. Many health systems, in particular pediatric hospitals, have reached or are exceeding capacity. California’s Orange County declared a health emergency on October 31 resulting from a record number of pediatric hospitalizations and flooded emergency rooms. Around 75 percent of children’s hospital beds in the country are currently occupied. Critical care physician Dr. Anita Patel at Children’s National Hospital in Washington D.C. told Fortunelast week: “I can honestly say that, unfortunately, with both RSV and the flu, we have had kids that needed to be intubated or have breathing tubes to help get through viral illness. I’ve been a practicing ICU [intensive care unit] doctor for a decade now, and I think I can safely say this is one of the worst surges I’ve ever seen.” Federal health officials are outlining plans to deploy federal troops and FEMA personnel to severely affected areas across the country in response to health systems reaching their capacity to manage the influx of ill people. These discussions also include mobilizing resources such as ventilators to hard-hit regions. Yet there is hardly any mention of these crisis measures in the mainstream press, desensitized to the mass suffering and death that has characterized these last three years. The number of jurisdictions reporting high or very high levels of Influenza-Like Illnesses (ILI) activity has surged across the Mid-Atlantic and the South-Central West Coast regions. The District of Columbia, Alabama, South Carolina and Kentucky have been designated with the color purple, signifying the highest level of ILI activity, for the week ending October 29, 2022. Dr. Jose Romero, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at Friday’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) briefing, “We’re seeing the highest influenza hospitalization rates going back a decade. We are also reporting the second influenza-related pediatric death of the season.” The 2022-2023 flu season, officially inaugurated in the first week of October, is gaining incredible momentum straight out of the gate. Positivity rates on tests reported to the CDC by US clinical laboratories jumped from 1 percent in mid-September to 9 percent by the end of October and continue to climb. Romero added, “In the southeast of the United States, nearly 20 percent of respiratory specimens are testing positive for influenza virus, mostly influenza A and H3 N2 viruses, which in the past have been associated with more severe seasons, especially for young children and older individuals.”
CDC warns about early spike in respiratory viruses | CIDRAP -- At a briefing today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urged Americans to take steps to protect against a surge in flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and other seasonal viruses in the weeks leading up to the holiday season.With COVID-19 levels expected to rise, the illness activity could place more strain on hospitals, a scenario for which federal officials said they are planning. Jose Romero, MD, who directs the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said mitigation steps have eased after 2 years of COVID-19 impacts that limited social interactions, and many young children are now being exposed to a host of respiratory viruses for the first time. He also warned that COVID-19 hasn't disappeared, with a rate that has now leveled off after decreasing the last few months.Over the past several weeks, activity involving other viruses has increased, though with notable differences by region. For example, southern states are reporting flu test positivity rates as high as 20%, mostly involving H3N2, a subtype known to cause more severe illness in young children and seniors.Meanwhile, the Middle Atlantic and Midwestern states are seeing rises in 2009 H1N1 activity.He said RSV, like flu, is more likely to be serious in younger children and seniors. Virus levels are increasing in all regions except those that include the Southeast and South Central states, areas that were the first to rises from flu.Romero said RSV activity is declining in the northwestern region that includes Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming.The CDC today also issued a Health Alert Network notice to health providers that covered protocols for diagnosis, testing, and prevention.Federal health officials today urged people to get vaccinated against flu and COVID to avoid illness and a burden on hospitals, especially with the holidays right around the corner. Given that the different diseases have similar symptoms, Romero urged parents to look for warning signs that children need immediate medical care, including fast or difficult breathing, bluish lips, chest pain, muscle pain, and dehydration.
CDC warns of tough winter as flu, RSV and Covid collide - The United States continues to experience an unusually high and early uptick in flu and respiratory syncytial virus infections, straining a health-care system trying to recover from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.While new coronavirus cases have leveled off in recent weeks, federal health officials warned Friday they are confronting elevated levels of other viruses that are roaring back as pre-pandemic life returns and many Americans, particularly children, lack immunity. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an advisory about respiratory viruses to thousands of health-care providers in an attempt to bolster testing, treatment and vaccination.At least 4,300 influenza patients were admitted to hospitals in the week ending Oct. 29, the highest for that time period in a decade and nearly double the prior week, according to data released Friday. The flu seasonbegan six weeks early this year, at a level not seen since the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic.After enduring two consecutive winters crushed by an influx of covid-19 patients, American hospitals face the prospect of a third covid winter — this time, slammed on three fronts.“With increased RSV infections, a rising number of flu cases and the ongoing burden of covid-19 in our communities, there’s no doubt we will face some challenges this winter,” Dawn O’Connell, assistant Health and Human Services secretary for preparedness and response, told reporters Friday. “But it’s important to remember … that RSV and flu are not new, and we have safe and effective vaccines for covid-19 and the flu.” So far, this flu season is more severe than it has been in 13 years Respiratory syncytial virus, a common cause of cold-like symptoms in children known as RSV, continues to rise nationally and strain children’s hospitals. Trends vary regionally; RSV appears to be receding in the Southeast and Mountain West as influenza surges. There is no vaccine for RSV, but Pfizer plans to seek approval for one administered during pregnancy.Health officials are bracing for the possibility that covid again overwhelms hospitals, depending on which new variants become dominant, because governments have abandoned efforts to limit transmission and few senior citizens, who are most susceptible to severe disease, are up-to-date on their shots.Some health officials have described the confluence of influenza, RSV and coronavirus a “tripledemic.” “Covid has impacted the seasonal patterns of all these respiratory infections,” said Tina Tan, a pediatric infectious diseases specialist at the Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago, where RSV cases are surging and flu cases are starting to rise. “Whether the pattern will go back to the way it was pre-covid, I don’t think anyone really knows, but it does make it more complicated to provide the care that people need when you have three viruses that can cause serious diseases surging at the same time.”
A Polio Case in the United States. What Does it Mean? – video w/ Dr Aaron Carroll -- A vaccine-derived polio case was reported in the United States recently, despite the fact that the polio vaccine effectively eradicated polio in the US decades ago. What is polio exactly? How did a polio case crop up in the US and what is vaccine-derived polio? What does this mean for future community spread? A Polio Case in the United States. What Does it Mean? - YouTube
Household contact, sex among risk factors in monkeypox cases in kids, teens | CIDRAP -- In a study today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers detail 83 confirmed monkeypox cases among US children and teens, noting household contact in younger kids and sex in teens as the major risk factors.From May 17 to Sep 24, a total 25,038 Americans were diagnosed as having monkeypox, the report said, the vast majority being adult men who have sex with men (MSM). Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and their state partners confirmed that 83 cases, or 0.3% of the national total, were among children 18 and younger, including 28 children aged 0 to 12 years and 55 adolescents aged 13 to 17 years.Among children in the younger age-group, 64% were boys, and most had direct skin-to-skin contact with an adult with monkeypox who was caring for the child in a household setting, the authors said.Among the teens, 89% were boys, and 66% were presumed to contract the virus during MSM sexual contact. Only 16 girls were confirmed to have contracted the virus.Black children made up 47% of the 83 patients, with Latinos making up 35%."Most (89%) were not hospitalized, none received intensive care unit (ICU)–level care, and none died. Monkeypox in children and adolescents remains rare in the United States," the authors said.Among 20 children aged 0 to 12 (71%) with available exposure data, 19 were exposed in the household setting, the authors said. Among 17 of these children, the reported exposure was direct skin-to-skin contact that routinely occurs between a child and an adult caregiver.In one case fomite transmission—towels shared with a caregiver with monkeypox—was the suspected route of exposure for a young child.Among 35 adolescents (64%) with available exposure data, 32 were boys with direct skin-to-skin sexual contact as the presumed mode of spread: 23 (72%) reported male-to-male sexual contact, 4 (13%) reported male-to-female sexual contact, and 5 (16%) reported sexual contact with a person whose sex was not specified.
Misinformation hampers Uganda’s battle against new outbreak of Ebola - Standing a few metres away from the gathering at the Kassanda district offices in central Uganda, Sam Kassamba’s face is a picture of disbelief.He has just figured out that the public meeting on Ebola he is attending is not about food distribution or when the 21-day lockdown imposed on Kassanda and Mubende districts will end.“If not taken seriously, Ebola can wipe out a whole district,” Dr Jane Ruth Aceng, Uganda’s minister of health, tells the crowd. Yet Kassamba remains unmoved.Not even the fact that 53 people have died of Ebola in Uganda and 136 have been infected since September seems to bother him. He then repeats one of the conspiracy theories making the rounds in the community. “I hear someone’s grandmother died of old age, and they said that it was Ebola. Lies,” he says.The Ebola outbreak was declared in Mubende on 20 September, sparking immediate concern among medical professionals because there is no vaccine for this strain of the virus. Cases of the Sudan strain have spread to the capital, Kampala, 150km from Mubende, with 18 cases confirmed so far – prompting the World Health Organization to update the country’s risk level from high to very high.Bars, places of worship and entertainment venues in Mubende and Kassanda were closed last month and a curfew introduced.Fewer people can be seen on the streets of Mubende town, and there are fewer cars and boda-boda motorcycle taxis on the roads.The normally jostling market, known for its roadside grills selling plantain, and for stalls of beef and chicken, is silent. Occasionally, young people gathered in small shops and centres call out to passing vehicles to see if they finally have the food the government has promised to send to see them through the lockdown. Children in uniform can still be seen trekking to school on the roads.But coming so soon after the Covid pandemic, the outbreak and lockdown have been met with fatigue, which has morphed into indifference.Marion Logose, a nurse at Madudu health centre in Mubende, one of five Ebola treatment units set up to deal with the outbreak, is familiar with the views expressed by Kassamba.“They talk like that until they turn positive,” she says. “Even as they sit here waiting for their results, they argue that this disease is a lie.”The disbelief helps explain why the body of a Muslim man who died of Ebola and was buried by a team from the health ministry was then dug up and reburied by family and friends because he wasn’t buried correctly according to Islam, putting them at grave risk of infection.
Uganda’s Ebola outbreak projected to kill 500 as response repeats mistakes of Wuhan -Uganda’s Ebola outbreak is expected to become one of the deadliest within six months, according to leaked government projections which point to 1,200 cases and 500 fatalities by late April.The modelling, drawn up by the Ugandan Ministry of Health, estimates that 250 people will die by January in the spiralling epidemic, rising to 499 by the spring.It comes amid signs that the mistakes of secrecy and prevarication which characterised the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in Wuhan are being repeated in Uganda.At least 136 cases and 53 deaths have been confirmed since the hemorrhagic fever was detected in mid September. The disease has spread across eight districts, including the capital Kampala – an international hub which is home to roughly two million people. Insiders say a “toxic” atmosphere has developed. Relations between the authoritarian government and international agencies on the ground are tense, while many local officials have been alienated and feel unable to raise issues or challenge their superiors.Supply shortages are also significant. Health workers have complained of inadequate PPE, while limited food for those in quarantine means some patients and their contacts have escaped isolation – spreading the virus.“Initially the impression was that this was small and under control and would burn out,” one source close to the response told the Telegraph. “Now the impression is that this is rapidly getting out of control, or is out of control. And a lot of the steps that could be taken to mitigate and respond are not being taken.” The government’s models, shared in a 15 page document dated October 31, were pulled together to inform assumptions about budgets, PPE and staffing requirements – including the size of burial teams and amount of medical equipment needed. If the epidemic follows the predicted trajectory it would become Uganda’s worst, surpassing an outbreak in 2000 when 435 infections and 224 fatalities were recorded. The working assumptions suggest that 53 per cent of cases will be adults.
Uganda to close schools early after eight children die of Ebola - Schools across Uganda will close two weeks before the scheduled end of term after 23 Ebola cases were confirmed among pupils, including eight children who died. Education Minister Janet Kataha Museveni said on Tuesday that the cabinet had taken the decision to close preschools, primary schools and secondary schools on November 25 because densely packed classrooms were making students highly vulnerable to infection. “Closing schools earlier will reduce areas of concentration where children are in daily close contact with fellow children, teachers and other staff who could potentially spread the virus,” the minister, who is also the wife of longtime President Yoweri Museveni, said in a statement. Students in Uganda are currently in their third and final term of the calendar year. On Saturday, the government extended a three-week lockdown on the neighbouring districts of Mubende and Kassanda, which have been the centre of the Ebola outbreak. The measures include a dusk-to-dawn curfew, a ban on personal travel, and the closure of markets, bars and churches. Since the outbreak was declared in Mubende on September 20, the disease has spread across the country, including to the capital, Kampala, but the president has said nationwide restrictions are not needed. According to government figures from Sunday, 135 people have been infected with Ebola and 53 have died. The World Health Organization (WHO) last week said Uganda had registered more than 150 confirmed and probable cases, including 64 fatalities. Uganda’s last recorded death from a previous Ebola outbreak was in 2019. The virus circulating in Uganda is the Sudan strain of Ebola, for which there is no proven vaccine, unlike the more common Zaire strain, which spread during recent outbreaks in neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo. Ebola is spread through bodily fluids with common symptoms being fever, vomiting, bleeding and diarrhoea. Outbreaks are difficult to contain, especially in urban environments. Ebola generally kills about half the people it infects.
Three states report their first high-path avian flu outbreaks in poultry - Three states—Arizona, Mississippi, and South Carolina—recently reported their first highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in poultry flocks, part of expanding activity involving the Eurasian H5N1 strain that has now affected poultry in 46 states, with poultry losses soon to pass a record set in 2015.In a Nov 4 statement, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Health Inspection Service (APHIS) said the outbreaks in Arizona and South Carolina involved backyard flocks. In Arizona, the outbreak struck two backyard flocks in Yavapai County, located in the central part of the state near Prescott.The Arizona Department of Agriculture said today that it is working closely with APHIS and that officials have quarantined the affected locations, where depopulation is under way. The virus had been previously detected a few times in waterfowl found dead in Arizona, according to APHIS.In South Carolina, the outbreak occurred in a backyard flock in Beaufort County in the south near Hilton Head. H5N1 has been detected several times in the state's wild birds, dating as far back as January.Meanwhile, in a Nov 5 statement, APHIS said the virus was found at a commercial breeder chicken flock in Lawrence County, Mississippi, located in the south central part of the state. The agency did not specify the size of the flock. The virus had been found previously during sampling from hunter-harvested birds.Meanwhile, in updates over the past few days, APHIS reported more outbreaks in 10 states, all involving backyard birds, except for Minnesota, which reported the virus again at a commercial turkey farm.Of states reporting outbreaks in backyard birds, Oregon reported two events. Others included California, Florida, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, New Jersey, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania.In Minnesota, the virus struck a turkey farm housing 8,500 birds in Stearns County, located in the central part of the state. Since the outbreaks in poultry began in February, the events have led to the loss of more than 49 million birds in 46 states. The number will soon pass the record 50.5 million poultry lost during the nation's largest avian flu outbreak in 2015.
For 1st time, potentially toxic air pollution particles found in fetuses' brain and lungs - Air pollution particles inhaled by pregnant mothers can make their way into the tissues and organs of developing fetuses, according to a new study. Although the health consequences are not yet known, the findings are sparking concern that ambient air pollution from things like burning fossil fuels and vehicle emissions can affect fetuses before they even leave the womb.Previous studies had found evidence of “black carbon” particles in the placenta, but for the first time researchers showed that these particles could cross the placenta and enter the fetal circulation system, eventually ending up in a fetus's organs.Black carbon particles were detected in the maternal blood, cord blood, placenta, and first and second trimester fetal tissues, including the liver, lungs and brain, the study authors wrote.The groundbreaking findings from researchers at the University of Aberdeen in Scotland and Hasselt University in Belgium were published in The Lancet Planetary Health.Black carbon or soot particles are produced by incomplete combustion from things like fossil fuel engines, coal-fired power plants, incineration and wood-burning stoves, according to Paul Fowler, Ph.D., chair in translational medical sciences at the University of Aberdeen in Scotland. "Lack of environmental controls on emissions can (also) affect and contribute to air pollution," Fowler added.These tiny nanoparticles accumulate and, along with others, create "particulate air pollution," according to the study authors.When the polluted air is inhaled, the nanoparticles enter the lungs and become absorbed into the bloodstream, said Fowler, who co-led the study. “We know that these actual particles can be taken up by cells. … Basically the cell forms a little pocket and takes the particle on board in a process called phagocytosis,” said Fowler. These black carbon particles are also coated with chemicals, metal, or organic pollutants, said Fowler. “If these particles are getting into the cells, they will carry those molecules into the cell, as well … so you’re getting double exposure to the particles themselves and the chemicals that are stuck on the particles,” Fowler added. Inhaling black carbon particles has been associated with a number of health problems, including respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and birth defects, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.“It’s pretty well established that (maternal) exposure to high levels of air pollution are associated with a lot of adverse outcomes, both for the mother and for the pregnancy,” said Fowler. These include a higher risk of a miscarriage, potential cognitive defects, and lower birth weight, he added.
Low levels of air pollution deadlier than previously thought - The World Health Organization's most recent estimates (2016) are that over 4.2 million people die prematurely each year due to long-term exposure to fine particulate outdoor air pollution (often referred to as PM2.5). A recent study involving McGill researchers now suggests that the annual global death toll from outdoor PM2.5 may be significantly higher than previously thought. That's because the researchers found that mortality risk was increased even at very low levels of outdoor PM2.5, ones which had not previously been recognized as being potentially deadly. These microscopic toxins cause a range of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and cancers."We found that outdoor PM2.5 may be responsible for as many as 1.5 million additional deaths around the globe each year because of effects at very-low concentrations that were not previously appreciated," said Scott Weichenthal, an Associate Professor in the Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health at McGill University and the lead author on the recent paper in Science Advances. The researchers arrived at this conclusion by combining health and mortality data for seven million Canadians gathered over a twenty-five-year period with information about the levels of outdoor PM2.5 concentrations across the country. Canada is a country with low levels of outdoor PM2.5, making it the perfect place to study health impacts at low concentrations. Knowledge gained in Canada was then used to update the lower end of the scale that is used to describe how mortality risk changes with outdoor PM2.5 levels. The result? An improved understanding of how air pollution impacts health on a global scale. The WHO recently set out ambitious new guidelines for annual average outdoor fine particulate air pollution, cutting its earlier recommendations in half, from concentrations of 10 to concentrations of 5 micrograms (ug) per cubic meter. The current United States Environmental Protection Agency standard of 12 (ug) per cubic meter is now more than double the value recommended by the WHO. "One take away is that the global health benefits of meeting the new WHO guideline are likely much larger than previously assumed," adds Weichenthal. "The next steps are to stop focusing only on particle mass and start looking more closely at particle composition because some particles are likely more harmful than others. If we can gain a better understanding of this, it may allow us to be much more efficient in designing regulatory interventions to improve population health." "How low can you go? Air pollution affects mortality at very low levels" by Scott Weichenthal et al was published in Science Advances.
Toxic smog engulfs India's New Delhi, prompting closures - It happens every winter in India’s sprawling capital: The cold air arrives, trapping the dust and other pollutants emitted by its 20 million residents. The result? A filthy, choking haze that engulfs the city and halts daily life. For the third day this week, air quality in the city passed the “severe” threshold, reaching 445 on Friday, India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences said. The figure is 10 times the target level established in the World Health Organization’s 2021 air quality guidelines, which advises a 24-hour mean of 45. As the smog descended on Delhi and the surrounding areas, officials on Friday ordered schools, factories and construction sites closed andbanned diesel trucks from bringing nonessential goods to the capital. About half of the city’s government employees were urged to work from home. The WHO estimates that millions die annually due to air pollution, and recognizes it as the world’s largest environmental health threat. IQAir, a Swiss air quality company, ranked New Delhi as the most polluted capital in 2021. Air pollution has been linked to heart diseases, a higher risk of stroke and lung cancer, and in 2019 was the leading cause of death in India, according to government data. Both the state and federal governments in India have faced criticism for failing to tackle the air pollution problem. And as the crisis mounted this week, regional politicians tried to blame each other for the health hazard. In a news conference on Friday, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said that Delhi and Punjab should not be held responsible for the smog, which he called “a northern India issue.” He said that there would be no solution without joint state and federal action, adding that the six months since the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) formed a government in Punjab was “not enough” for the government to implement solutions.
Air Pollution & Human Brain: How Toxic Air Affects Mental Health - The yellow haze of smog in the sky isn't just a stain on the view, as it might also affect a person's mental well-being. The fine particulate matter causes harm to the respiratory organ and affects mental health by increasing anxiety and depression. Air pollution is a public health hazard that significantly impacts a person's overall health. The toxic air pollutants make their way through the nose to the lungs. According to health experts, long-term exposure to pollutants can damage several body organs, including the lungs, blood vessels in the kidney and the respiratory system. Recently, several cities in India, including Delhi and Mumbai, have witnessed poor air quality, and many people left their homes or stopped stepping outside their homes unnecessarily. Several reports have shown that poor air quality leads to various health issues, including sore throat, eye irritation, and breathing problems. Some reports have also claimed its effect on mental well-being. Air Pollution & Human Brain Researchers in the medical field have known the effects of air pollution on respiratory health and other organs of the human body, but its impact on mental health has been less well understood. Now, several research has found that toxic air is unfavourable for adequate mental health. Anuncios Research published by the National Library of Medicine reveals that air pollution adversely affects mental health. It also highlights that mental health disorders such as depression and anxiety can be avoided through improved air quality. According to a study conducted in 2019, air pollution results in psychiatric conditions. Those exposed to a high level of toxic air can also have bipolar disorder, personality disorder, and depression. According to health experts, the toxic elements in the air, when enters the human body, directly affect the central nervous system, causing restriction to the ideal functioning of the brain. Several neurons in the brain are disrupted due to the breathing of toxic air.
Air pollution threatens natural pest control methods in sustainable farming - When fields of oilseed rape are exposed to diesel exhaust and/or ozone—both found in emissions from diesel burning vehicles and industry—the number of parasitic insects available to control aphids drops significantly, according to research published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B today. The team, led by scientists from the University of Reading, used special equipment to deliver controlled amounts of diesel exhaust and ozone to oilseed rape plants. They also added aphids to the plants and measured the reproductive success of parasitic wasps that habitually lay their eggs inside a freshly stung aphid. Dr. James Ryalls of the University of Reading said, "Even at the levels we used, which were lower than safe maximums set by environmental regulators, the overall numbers of parasitic insects still fell. This is a worrying result as many sustainable farming practices rely on natural pest control to keep aphids and other unwelcome creatures away from valuable crops. "Diesel and ozone appear to make it more difficult for the wasps to find aphids to prey upon and so the wasp population would drop over time." While the majority of parasitic wasp species decreased in polluted environments, one species of parasitic wasp appeared to do better when both diesel and ozone were present. However, the researchers found that this combination of pollutants also correlated with changes in the plants that might explain the finding. With both pollutants present, oilseed rape plants produced more of the compounds that give brassica family crops, including mustards and cabbages, their distinctive bitter, hot and peppery flavor notes. These usually repel insects, but in the case of Diaretiella rapae wasps, there was greater abundance and reproductive success associated with diesel exhaust and ozone together. Dr. Ryalls said, "Diaretiella rapae particularly likes to prey on cabbage aphids, which love to eat brassica crops. We know that some of the flavor and smell compounds in oilseed rape are converted into substances that do attract D. rapae. "So, we could speculate that the stronger smell attracts the wasps and they are more successful in finding and preying upon aphids, that way. It could be that D. rapae is a good choice for pest control in diesel and ozone polluted areas. This really goes to show that the only way to predict and mitigate the impacts of air pollutants is to study whole systems."
Cover crops can lower yields, according to new study - The promise for American agriculture is tantalizing: healthier soil, more carbon kept in the ground, less fertilizer runoff, and less need for chemicals. The reality of planting cover crops during the off-season—a much-touted and subsidized approach to climate change mitigation—is more complicated, according to new Stanford University-led research. The study, published in Global Change Biology, reveals that cover cropping as currently done in a major U.S. crop-growing region reduces corn and soybean yields, and could lead to indirect environmental impacts from expanded cultivation to make up for the losses. "Use of cover crops is rapidly spreading. We wanted to see how these new practices affect crop yields in the real world, outside of small-scale research plots," said Jillian Deines, lead author of the study and a postdoctoral scholar in Stanford's Center on Food Security and the Environment (FSE) at the time of the research. "Agriculture is a very tricky business to get right, and things typically don't work out as planned," Maintaining vegetation cover on agricultural fields in the off-season can lead to large reductions in runoff and leakage of nitrogen into streams and groundwater, reduced soil erosion, and reduced need for weed control chemicals. The practice can also be a cost-competitive strategy for keeping carbon dioxide out of the air. Because of cover cropping's potential as a climate change solution and other landscape benefits, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has subsidized the practice with more than $100 million per year since 2016. The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in August, earmarks $20 billion for practices that "directly improve soil carbon, reduce nitrogen losses, or reduce, capture, avoid, or sequester carbon dioxide, methane, or nitrous oxide emissions, associated with agricultural production." Without these supports, farmers would likely be slower to take on the cost of sowing and digging up cover crops. As it is, cover crops are used on only about 5% of fields in the primary corn-growing region of the U.S. In the first large-scale, field-level analysis of yield impacts from cover cropping across the U.S. Corn Belt, the researchers used satellite imagery to look over about 20 million acres of farmland in Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan. They analyzed every field that had grown cover crops for at least three years, comparing them to similar fields that had not been planted with cover crops. On average, fields with cover crops saw yield declines of 5.5% for corn and 3.5% for soybeans. The greater maize yield losses likely reflect the crop's greater need for nitrogen fertilizer, a chemical that common cover crops also use, and water, which cover crops can deplete ahead of dry growing seasons. The yield declines equate with a loss of about $40 per acre for corn and $20 per acre for soybeans. That loss, combined with the cost of implementing cover crops—about $40 per acre—makes long-term adoption of the practice challenging, the researchers write.
Biodegradable microplastics in soils cause carbon dioxide emissions to rise - Biodegradable microplastic particles in soils can lead to an increased rise in CO2 emissions to the Earth's atmosphere. This is shown by an interdisciplinary study published in Applied Soil Ecology by the Collaborative Research Centre 1357 "Microplastics" at the University of Bayreuth. In this study, experts in soil ecology and ecological microbiology compare the effects of a conventional and a biodegradable plastic in different soils in a systematic way for the first time. The consequences for the microbial biomass in the soils, especially on bacteria and fungi, are also analyzed. The Bayreuth scientists selected two plastics for their study: LDPE (low-density polyethylene) is a conventional, non-biodegradable plastic that has been used in the chemical industry for decades. PBAT (polybutylene adipate terephthalate), on the other hand, is a biodegradable plastic that is used, for example, for food packaging, organic waste bags and mulch films. Particles from three different size ranges (50 to 200 micrometers, 200 to 500 micrometers and 0.63 to 1.2 millimeters) were added in varying concentrations to a sandy loam soil on the one hand and a loamy soil on the other. Over a period of four weeks, the scientists measured the amounts of CO2 released from the soils. "The smaller the biodegradable microplastic particles are and the higher their concentration in the soil, the more CO2 escapes from the soil into the earth's atmosphere. We observed increases in CO2 emissions of 13 to 57 percent, depending on the size of the particles, their concentration in the soil and the soil properties. Sandy loam soils released more CO2 than pure loam soils," As the Bayreuth research team found out, the increase in CO2 emissions goes hand in hand with the increase in microbial biomass: If small, biodegradable PBAT particles enter the soil in high concentrations, the amount of bacteria and fungi, which make up the majority of the microbial biomass here, increases. "The growth of biomass is largely caused by microorganisms in the soil gradually decomposing the microplastic particles and feeding on decay products produced in the process. CO2 emissions are closely related to these processes. Evidence of this is provided by the differences between pure loamy soils and sandy loam soils. In sandy loam soils, microplastic particles are much more accessible to microorganisms and are therefore degraded more quickly. All the more CO2 is released in the process," "The global input of plastics into soils is a cause for concern. We still know too little about what consequences this has for microorganisms and terrestrial ecosystems. Our study provides important evidence in this regard. Our research findings on emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2 show that high concentrations of microplastic particles in soils could even have a long-term impact on the climate. It is the biodegradable particles, of all things, that our study has shown to be problematic in this respect,"
US Farmers and Big Ag Corps Press Panic Button on Mexico’s Upcoming GMO Ban -Thanks to NAFTA and US agricultural subsidies, Mexico has become a major importer of US-produced staples such as corn, rice and beans. In 2021, the country, once the birthplace of modern maize, became the world’s second largest importer of corn. Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador (or AMLO as he’s commonly known) is determined to reverse this trend. Since coming into office in late 2018, AMLO has made food security and self-sufficiency one of the main priorities of his government.“We have to aim for self sufficiency in food, just as we have done with energy,” said AMLO in his regular morning press conference this Wednesday. “Producing what we consume in Mexico is the best strategy for tackling the problem of inflation.”These words were deemed so important by the Mexican government that it shared them on its official twitter account. But they will not have gone down quite so well among corn growers and Big Ag corporations on the other side of the Rio Grande. Nor will the recent announcement that Mexico plans to cut the cost of 24 basic goods by curbing food exports, including white corn and beans, in a big to tackle raging food inflation.All the while the Jan 31, 2024 deadline for the Mexican government’s ban on all imports of the “probably” carcinogenic weedkiller glyphosate and prohibition of the cultivation and importation of genetically modified (GM) foodstuffs looms ever larger. For US corn farmers and Big Ag corps, the threat could not be greater: 90% of the yellow corn they produce is genetically modified, and Mexico represents 25% of their entire export market.On Wednesday (Nov. 9,) the Wall Street Journal published a three-paragraph letter from Jon Doggett, the CEO of the US National Corn Growers Association, calling on Washington to “halt Mexico’s trade war before it’s too late”: The US is a leading corn supplier for Mexico, and 90% of corn grown in this country is biotech, which empowers farmers to conserve the soil and reduce insecticide use. Given these facts, it goes without saying that Mr López’s decree would be devastating for the Mexican people and U.S. farmers. Thousands of growers are busy right now booking seed for spring 2021 planing, meaning that what is purchased this fall be in grain channels as late as 2025. Much of that seed is and will continue to be biotech corn.Biotech corn isn’t the only crop targeted by Mexican officials. Biotech soybeans, cotton and canola import approvals have also been rejected by Mexico’s regulatory agency over the past year.And here comes the kicker:There is a way to resolve this situation before it is too late. The U.S. Trade Representative must intervene and file a dispute with Mexico under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Given all that is at stake, we would encourage USTR to act sooner rather than later.
If bumblebees can play, does it mean they have feelings? This study suggests yes - When put to the test, bees have proved over and over again that they've got a lot more to offer than pollinating, making honey and being fiercely loyal to a queen. The industrious insects can count and alter their behavior when things seem difficult, and now some scientists say there's proof they also like to play. A study recently published in Animal Behavior suggests that bumblebees, when given the chance, like to fool around with toys. Researchers from Queen Mary University of London conducted an experiment in which they set up a container that allowed bees to travel from their nest to a feeding area. But along the way, the bees could opt to pass through a separate section with a smattering of small wooden balls. Over 18 days, the scientists watched as the bees "went out of their way to roll wooden balls repeatedly, despite no apparent incentive to do so." The finding suggests that like humans, insects also interact with inanimate objects as a form of play. Also similar to people, younger bees seemed to be more playful than adult bees. In this experiment from researchers at Queen Mary University of London, bumblebees, especially young ones, appeared to show they liked to cling to wooden balls twice their size and roll them around just for the fun of it. "This research provides a strong indication that insect minds are far more sophisticated than we might imagine," Lars Chittka, a professor of sensory and behavioral ecology at Queen Mary University of London, who led the study, said in a statement. In one experiment, the bees, which were tracked by age and sex, could make their way through an unobstructed path to a feeding area or opt for a detour into a chamber with the wooden balls. Many took the detour. Video shows the chubby insects clinging to balls (about twice the size of the bees) and maneuvering them around. In more comical moments, some bees appeared to do somersaults while holding on. Other times they would walk in reverse, pulling the ball with them — an unnatural movement for bumblebees. "There are lots of animals who play just for the purposes of enjoyment, but most examples come from young mammals and birds," said Chittka. The study's first author, Samadi Galpayage, who is a PhD student at Queen Mary University of London, added that it is yet more evidence that insects may be capable of experiencing feelings. "They may actually experience some kind of positive emotional states, even if rudimentary, like other larger fluffy, or not so fluffy, animals do. This sort of finding has implications to our understanding of sentience and welfare of insects and will, hopefully, encourage us to respect and protect life on Earth ever more," she said in the statement.
Scientists Just Discovered a Host of Strange Creatures at the Bottom of the Sea - A team of researchers at Museums Victoria Research Institute in Australia recently embarked on 13,000 kilometers (8,000 miles) deep-sea research voyage, exploring vast, prehistoric undersea mountains and undiscovered animal inhabitants in the remote waters of Christmas and Cocos (Keeling) Islands.Even before the expedition commenced, the team anticipated the discovery of unknown species in the deep sea, according to a press release. “We [were] excited about the prospect of discovering new species,” senior curator of marine invertebrates Tim O’Hara said. “No one has seen these isolated areas before. We have no maps of them and no knowledge of what lives there. And this voyage provides world-first baseline data of these unknown marine environments and their inhabitants.”On the way, researchers encountered dazzling arrays of flying fish midair, with actual wings. Using sonar, the team then mapped the seabed uncovering ancient sea mountains, volcanic cones, canyons, and ridges. The extinct volcanoes formed 140 to 50 million years ago, before the extinction of dinosaurs. They also collected fish with a net that is dragged across the sea floor for 30 minutes or so before being brought to the surface and sorted by scientists on the ship.The crew reported collecting a big treasure haul of species from 60 meters (196 feet) down to a depth of 5,500 meters (3,417 miles). Perhaps the one that caused the most stir was a new type of blind cusk eel, with loose, gooey see-through skin.They also found batfish that resemble dumplings. This fish has a tiny little lure that sits in a depression on its snout. It can move to attract prey, and basically, walk across the floor on its modified arms and legs.Deep-sea batfish. Credit: Museums Victoria/Ben HealleyAnother favorite amongst researchers is the “tripod fish”, a fish with fins that allow it to stand off the sea floor. This enables it to eat whatever food it comes across.Fancy sea cucumbers, plenty of sea stars, and lots of sea snails also call this region home as do many other strange deep-sea creatures the team found.The research outcomes from the voyage will be invaluable to the understanding of Australia’s deep-sea environments and habitats.“These [findings] will be crucial in conservation and future management strategies, working towards protecting these isolated areas from the impacts of climate change, pollution, and other human activities,” says O’Hara.
Tiger sharks that interact with tourists are larger and have higher hormone levels, study shows - Tiger Beach in the Bahamas is famous for its paradisiacal beauty and for being frequented by an animal that might scare most people away but is actually an outstanding diving tourism attraction: the Tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier). The sea is crystal clear and only 5 m deep on average, so the sharks, which can surpass 3 m in length, can easily be seen. They are drawn to the site by local tour operators, who throw fish and other food into the water. A group of scientists in Brazil and the United States, including researchers supported by FAPESP, have discovered that females of the species that frequently visit the area are larger and have higher hormone levels than other individuals of the same species that spend less time there. An article on their study is published in Animal Behaviour. The findings point to possible effects of mass tourism on these sharks. The authors are the first to describe the influence of physiological state on behavior and decision-making in these sharks. "The area was dominated by large females, some of them pregnant. Generally speaking, hormone levels were higher in female sharks that frequented the area, where they were fed, than in others that didn't interact much with divers. Moreover, the former's nutritional state was better, and they had more omega-3 in their blood," said Bianca Rangel, first author of the article. An earlier study by the group showed that Nurse sharks (Ginglymostoma cirratum) living in an urban area had more fat in their blood and bacteria in their stomach contents than individuals of the same species living in better-conserved areas. "We can't say whether tourism is or isn't harming these animals, as we were unable to collect material for testing before and after interaction with divers, which would have been ideal. However, we now have a body of evidence that will be helpful for future evaluations,"
Heatwaves could kill 90,000 Europeans per year by 2100: EEA - If nothing is done, heatwaves could lead to the deaths of 90,000 Europeans each year by the end of the century, the European Environment Agency said. "Without adaptation measures, and under a scenario of 3 degrees Celsius global warming by 2100, 90,000 Europeans could die from extreme heat annually," it said. "With 1.5 degrees C global warming, this is reduced to 30,000 deaths annually." Countries have pledged to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels—a goal the world is set to miss on current emission trends. Some 129,000 Europeans died from excessive heat in the period between 1980 and 2020, the agency said, citing insurance data. But more frequent heatwaves linked to climate change, an aging population and increased urbanization have made this figure likely to increase in coming years, especially in the south of the continent, it said. The World Health Organization on Monday said at least 15,000 people had died so far this year in Europe because of hot weather. The three months from June-August were the hottest in Europe since records began, and the exceptionally high temperatures led to the worst drought the continent has witnessed since the Middle Ages. Beyond the danger of heat itself, the EEA said, climate change could also make Europe more prone to infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever spread by mosquito bites. And the warming sea waters are becoming increasingly suitable for the bacteria that causes cholera, in particular along the coastlines of the Baltic Sea. The EEA called for action. "Nearly all deaths associated with high temperatures are preventable in the European context," it said. "Reducing the health impacts of heat requires implementing a wide range of solutions, including effective heat health action plans, urban greening, appropriate building design and construction, and adjusting working times and conditions," it said.
Warm, dry October intensifies U.S. drought | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures intensified drought conditions, broadening the geographic areas of drought across the U.S. in October 2022.Those dry conditions were also felt along the Mississippi River, where some locations reported their lowest water levels in 10 years.The average October temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 55.3 degrees F, 1.2 degrees above the 20th-century average, ranking in the warmest third in the climate record.Several states had a top-10 warm October. Looking at the western U.S., Washington saw its warmest October on record, Oregon its second warmest, and California its seventh warmest. Along the eastern U.S., Maine had its sixth-warmest October.The average precipitation was 1.66 inches — 0.50 of an inch below average — placing the month in the driest third of Octobers on record.Florida had its eighth-driest October on record while California and Minnesota each saw their 11th driest. Conversely, an abundance of precipitation during the month gave New Jersey its 10th-wettest October on record.The average U.S. temperature for the YTD was 56.7 degrees F, 1.7 degrees above the 20th-century average, ranking as the 13th-warmest such YTD in the climate record. California saw its third warmest while Oregon saw its sixth warmest. The U.S. precipitation total for the YTD was 23.19 inches — 2.17 inches below average — ranking as the 15th-driest such YTD on record. California had its driest, Nebraska ranked fourth and Nevada saw its eighth driest on record for this 10-month period. The Mississippi River dropped to its lowest water levels in a decade near Memphis, Tennessee, and Vicksburg, Mississippi, closing off a vital channel to barge traffic at a crucial time of year for crop transportation. In October 2022, the U.S. Coast Guard reported a total of eight barges that ran aground, along with a long backup of 144 vessels and 2,253 barges trying to access narrow river passages. According to the November 1, 2022, U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 62.8% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, up approximately 11.9% from the end of September. Drought conditions expanded or intensified across much of the Southeast and Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and parts of the Plains, central Rockies and Northwest. Drought conditions shrank or were eliminated across portions of the Southwest, southern Plains, Northeast and Hawaii.
Farmers feeling the effects as drought slows shipping on the Mississippi - Water levels on the Mississippi River have been exceptionally low this fall, due to a dry summer in the Midwest. That’s jamming up barge traffic and causing headaches for businesses that rely on the river, and it’s affecting farmers’ bottom lines. For grain farmers in the Midwest, the cheapest way to get crops to market is usually on the Mississippi. But this year, “the abnormally low conditions is hindering the nation’s ability, really, to get those agricultural products out,” said Clint Willson, who directs Louisiana State University’s Center for River Studies. He said the river isn’t as wide or as deep as it normally is in some places. That means fewer barges can travel on the river, they can’t carry as much stuff, and shipping costs for farmers are high. “And then that impacts their bottom line,” he said.Agricultural input costs are also high and the strong dollar is making U.S. agricultural exports less competitive, said economist Michael Doherty with the Illinois Farm Bureau. “So now you add this shipping cost on top of that and you’re just squeezing the farmers that much more,” he said. Doherty adds many soybean farmers are storing this year’s crop until shipping costs start trending down. But forecasts show drought conditions aren’t likely to let up soon.
Drought-Stricken Mississippi River Blocks Key US Port From the World -The Mississippi River — the immense, quiet highway that courses down the middle of America, moving critical food, wood, coal and steel supplies to global markets — is shrinking from drought, forcing traffic to a crawl at the worst possible time. With water levels at record lows, barges have run aground, causing traffic jams as boats wait for the US Army Corps of Engineers to dredge a path through the shallows. The problem has been building for months. Summer brought meager rain to much of the Plains and Midwest. More than a trillion pounds of freight per year travel on the Mississippi and the rivers that feed it. Soybeans, corn, animal feed, coke, sand and gravel, oil, gasoline, fertilizer, salt and alcohol all ride the river to market. One of its major tributaries, the Ohio, is a conveyor belt for aluminum, coal and steel. A single river barge, fully loaded, can haul as much as 16 rail cars or 70 semi trucks, according to the US Department of Transportation. And most tugs that ply the river system push multiple barges. Now it’s harvest time, when farmers bring in their grains and other crops, send them to market, and lay down fertilizer before the winter snows. The shriveled Mississippi has forced them to seek alternatives, all of them more expensive, like moving soybeans by rail to the Gulf Coast or shipping everything through distant West Coast ports. That will inevitably increase pressure on global food prices at a time when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already sent them soaring. “We don’t have any soybean storage. Beans are in places where they shouldn’t be and losing quality.” All told, the economic hit from the river’s historically low levels could reach $20 billion, according to AccuWeather. As the shipping system grinds to a crawl, barge rates have soared. In the first week of November, shipping one ton of soybeans by barge from St. Louis cost $80.12, nearly 400% more than the year-earlier level. The rate jumped as high as $105.85 in mid-October. Coal from Appalachia and Illinois confronts the same bottleneck as grains, as the war forces Europe to hunt for fuel that can replace Russian natural gas. The river carried 71.7 million tons in 2020, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers, including much of the coal the US exports to fuel power plants in Europe and elsewhere. The normal flow of fertilizers north on the river has also been blocked, crimping supplies and driving up costs for farmers. Soon, the Mississippi’s northernmost stretches will freeze for winter.There have been barge groundings, and cruise ships have had to cut back. By their natures, rivers change year by year, but low water has rarely been a problem on the Mississippi. The far more common concern has been too much water, forcing generations of engineers to build an elaborate system of levees, locks and spillways from Minnesota to Louisiana, making it one of the most controlled waterways on Earth. However, no amount of engineering can keep the river flowing if there isn’t enough water. This year has seen rivers across the US, Europe and China shrinking amid scarce rains and high heat. The vaunted Colorado River, caught in the Southwest’s worst drought in 1,200 years, has dwindled to the point where its major hydroelectric dams are in danger of shutting down, threatening the booming desert cities that rely on it. In Argentina, the Parana River fell to its lowest levels in 77 years, crimping crop exports down the waterway, while Europe’s Rhine and Danube almost saw traffic halt. And even as a powerful monsoon season flooded Pakistan, drought in China dropped the Yangtze River low enough that glittering Shanghai had to turn off lights to save power. Together, they offer yet another example of how the world’s economy — the systems for generating electricity, moving products and providing food — relies on an increasingly unreliable climate.
Plaquemines Parish is giving out water due to low Mississippi River. See times, locations. -Plaquemines Parish officials are distributing cases of bottled water and bags of ice to residents, as saltwater moving up the Mississippi River continues to threaten their source of drinking water. Water distribution started Nov. 2 and will continue until further notice, officials said, as part of Plaquemines' emergency response to high levels of salt in the potable water supply. The intrusion of saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico results from this year's unusually low river levels. Parish President Kirk Lepine declared an emergency Sept. 28, and the Army Corps of Engineersbuilt an underwater sill in the river to block saltwater from reaching Plaquemines' water treatment plants at Belle Chasse and Dalcour. Residents and businesses between the Empire bridge and Venice are under a drinking water advisory, said Patrick Harvey, Plaquemines' homeland security and emergency preparedness director.While treated water from the river is not a threat to most residents' health, high levels of the chloride could affect the taste, odor and color of the water. The Louisiana Department of Health recommends that people who live in the affected areas and are on dialysis or low-sodium diets, or those with high blood pressure or kidney diseases, check with their doctors before drinking from the Plaquemines water system.
The Saudis depleted their Own Aquifers: now they’re emptying Arizona’s and Getting Sweetheart Deals to do So– Ella Nilsen at CNN has done an excellent deep dive on the shrinking aquifers of the Southwest and how Arizona has allowed a Saudi and a United Arab Emirates company to establish water-hog farms to grow crops to be shipped back to the Middle East.Saudi Arabia is a country of about 22 million citizens and as many as 13 million guest workers, so it is nearly as populous as California. Yet, much of the country is desert or poorly watered steppe with low rates of annual rainfall, of between 2.5 and 3 inches a year in many places. In the deep-desert Empty Quarter of the southeast, sometimes it doesn’t rain for 10 years at a time.It is estimated that for high yields of crops, farmers need 18 to 20 inches of rainfall a year. So, Saudi Arabian farmers simply cannot raise crops such as alfalfa, which require a lot of water.Further, Saudi Arabian farmers have completely depleted their own aquifers.Saudi Arabian livestock farms were keeping 360,000 cows in the mid-teens of this century, but in 2019 that number jumped to 700,000. Since Saudi water resources are insufficient to raise the alfalfa needed to feed these cows, the Saudi firm Almarai established an American subsidiary, Fondomente, which has leased land in Arizona to grow this feed crop. The alternative would be to import beef and milk from someplace where producing them makes sense (i.e. neither Saudi Arabia nor Arizona).The hitch, though is that much of Arizona, especially the southwest, gets only 4 inches of rain a year and isn’t much better than Saudi Arabia. Farming depends heavily on irrigating off rivers or using underground aquifer water. As for theColorado River, it is at historic low levels.Aquifers can be replenished by rainfall, but given the great Southwest Megadrought that began around the year 2000, many of them are having their water pumped out and not replaced. In some areas of the state, people could dig down 100 feet and hit water. Now, the water table is more like 500 feet, Nilsen says. And, the aquifers could be emptied out entirely if the state legislature refuses to act.
Wells are running dry in drought-weary Southwest as foreign-owned farms guzzle water to feed cattle overseas - Workers with the water district in Wenden, Arizona, saw something remarkable last year as they slowly lowered a camera into the drought-stricken town’s well: The water was moving.But the aquifer which sits below the small desert town in the southwestern part of the state is not a river; it’s a massive, underground reservoir which stores water built up over thousands of years. And that water is almost always still.Gary Saiter, a longtime resident and head of the Wenden Water Improvement District, said the water was moving because it was being pumped rapidly out of the ground by a neighboring well belonging to Al Dahra, a United Arab Emirates-based company farming alfalfa in the SouthwestAl Dahra did not respond to multiple requests for comment on this story.“The well guys and I have never seen anything like this before,” Saiter told CNN. The farm was “pumping and it was sucking the water through the aquifer.”Groundwater is the lifeblood of the rural Southwest, but just as the Colorado River Basin is in crisis, aquifers are rapidly depleting from decades of overuse,worsening drought and rampant agricultural growth.Residents and farms pull water from the same underground pools, and as the water table declines, the thing determining how long a well lasts is how deeply it was drilled.Now frustration is growing in Arizona’s La Paz County, as shallower wells run dry amid the Southwest’s worst drought in 1,200 years. Much of the frustration is pointed at the area’s huge, foreign-owned farms growing thirsty crops like alfalfa, which ultimately get shipped to feed cattle and other livestock overseas.“You can’t take water and export it out of the state, there’s laws about that,” said Arizona geohydrologist Marvin Glotfelty, a well-drilling expert. “But you can take ‘virtual’ water and export it; alfalfa, cotton, electricity or anything created in part from the use of water.”Residents and local officials say lax groundwater laws give agriculture the upper hand, allowing farms to pump unlimited water as long as they own or lease the property to drill wells into. In around 80% of the state, Arizona has no laws overseeing how much water corporate megafarms are using, nor is there any way for the state to track it.But rural communities in La Paz County know the water is disappearing beneath their feet.Shallow, residential wells in the county started drying up in 2015, local officials say, and deeper municipal well levels have steadily declined. In Salome, local water utility owner Bill Farr told CNN his well – which supplies water to more than 200 customers, including the local schools – is “nearing the end of its useful life.”
Tornado outbreak - Destructive tornadoes hit Texas and Oklahoma, leaving more than 100 000 customers without power -- (9 videos) Severe storms moving through the south-central U.S. on Friday, November 4, 2022, produced strong winds, heavy rain and tornadoes in parts of Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma, leaving damage and injuring people. The threat of tornadoes, some intense, continues across the ArkLaTex region overnight on November 5 as the cold front passes through the southern Plains. The NWS Storm Prediction Center issued a Level 4 risk for the ArkLaTex region through Friday evening – a forecast issued about a dozen times per year. By 07:55 UTC on November 5, the center received 18 tornado reports, most of them from NE Texas. More than 112 000 customers were without power as of 07:30 UTC on November 5 – 68 000 in Texas, 25 000 in Arkansas, and 24 000 in Louisiana. A confirmed tornado hit Lamar County in northern Texas, located about 128 km (80 miles) NE of Dallas-Fort Worth, injuring 10 people and damaging or destroying 50 homes, according to the sheriff’s office. Law enforcement officials said two of the 10 people injured were in critical, but stable condition at Paris Regional Medical Center. Trees and power lines were downed across the region, leaving tens of thousands without power and forcing Dallas area airports to cancel hundreds of flights. Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport recorded 76.45 mm (3.01 inches) of rainfall on November 4, breaking the previous daily rainfall record of 44.95 mm (1.77 inches) set in 1956. A violent wedge tornado touched down near Clarksville – a city and county seat of Red River County, Texas. A large and destructive tornado moved across I-30 in New Boston, Texas, slinging debris and causing numerous power explosions. This aerial video shows the tornado coming into the southwest side of town with ground showing it cross I-30 at close range. Damage assessments are in progress in Hopkins County, Texas where at least 4 homes sustained heavy damage. A confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was reported near Cumby, Texas – located about 12.8 km (8 miles) SW of Sulphur Springs. Significant damage was reported inside the city limits of Hughes Springs where a tornado moved through the area at 19:39 LT. Tornado damage was also reported in Athens, Henderson County, TX. Another tornado hit the Oklahoma Mesonet site at Idabel, Oklahoma. The site recorded a maximum wind gust of 174 km/h (108 mph) at approximately 18:50 UTC. A frontal system continues to move across the central U.S. early this morning while gradually approaching the eastern United States, NWS forecaster Dolan noted at 08:02 UTC on November 5.3 Severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible across the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley early this morning, but severe potential will gradually decrease throughout the day today. This system is forecast to continue slowly moving east while weakening through early next week.
Major winter storm forecast to impact parts of the Northern Plains, U.S. - There is increasing confidence that a significant winter storm will affect parts of the Northern Plains later this week. While uncertainty into the exact track and strength of this system remains, it is likely that some areas will receive heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Confidence continues to increase that a winter storm will bring a swath of heavy snow, and a corridor of sleet and freezing rain, to portions of the northern High Plains, Great Pains, and Upper Mississippi River Valley. Intense snow rates will likely produce significant snowfall accumulations in some areas, NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) warns. Strong gusty winds combined with heavy snow could produce blizzard conditions resulting in dangerous travel conditions. Freezing rain and sleet are likely south of the heavy snow which could produce hazardous travel conditions and at least minor impacts to infrastructure. Uncertainty remains with the timing, strength, and location of the storm track which determines where the axis of heaviest wintry precipitation and most notable impacts will occur.
Late Season Tropical Threat Emerges, Gov. DeSantis Warns "Floridians To Be Prepared" --The end of November marks the close of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. There are a little more than three weeks left in the season, and AccuWeather forecasters say a tropical threat has emerged just north of the Caribbean and could strengthen into a storm next week, with Florida in the crosshairs.A low-pressure system developed on Saturday just south of Puerto Rico. By Sunday, the system, dubbed Invest 98L, moved North of Puerto Rico and has an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression over the next two days. It has a 90% chance of developing over the next five days. AccuWeather forecasters warn, "this tropical rainstorm will become better organized and likely become a tropical storm as it takes a winding track toward the Bahamas and storm-weary Florida." If it develops into a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin, it will be named "Nicole." AccuWeather storm track modeling shows the system is on a westward path and could make landfall in South Florida in the second half of the week. Gov. Ron DeSantis and other state officials told Floridians to be prepared for potential tropical impacts. The exact landfall timing and location are uncertain but could affect many Floridians still recovering from Hurricane Ian in September.
Palm Beach Evacuates As Nicole Approaches Hurricane Strength -- Palm Beach County is under evacuation orders ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole, expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday with landfall between Boca Raton and Sebastian late Wednesday night or early Thursday. Nicole is about 240 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida, with sustained 70-mph winds just four mph shy of hurricane status.Palm Beach County officials announced Mandatory Evacuations for Zones A and B. This includes mobile homes, barrier islands, and low-lying areas. "Nicole would be the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States in November in nearly 40 years," a CNN meteorologist said. Hurricane warnings are posted from Boca Raton to Daytona Beach, including Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, and the Space Coast. Tropical storm warnings span up to Charleston, South Carolina, and include much of Florida's East Coast. Storm surge warnings for Palm Beach are also in effect. Florida's east coast could experience a peak surge of up to 5 feet of water. The National Weather Service wrote as "Nicole moves inland across the Florida peninsula," there could be "significant impacts" to building structures, marinas, docks, and piers, as well as roadways and bridges. Ahead of the storm's landfall, Palm Beach International Airport closed Wednesday morning. Orlando International Airport will cease operations at 1600 ET. The ominous forecast could be very problematic for NASA. The space agency's $4 billion Space Launch System rocket sits on the launch pad at Kennedy Space Center, where it's expected to ride out the storm.
Category 1 Hurricane “Nicole” makes landfall just south of Vero Beach, Florida - (maps, satellite animations) Radar imagery from Miami and Melbourne shows the center of Category 1 Hurricane “Nicole” has made landfall on the east coast of the Florida peninsula on North Hutchinson Island just south of Vero Beach at 08:00 UTC on November 10, 2022. Nicole is the latest calendar year hurricane to make landfall on the east coast of Florida on record, breaking the old record set by the Yankee on November 4, 1935. The maximum sustained winds at the time of landfall were estimated to be 120 km/h (75 mph). The minimum central pressure was estimated to be 981 hPa. At the time, the center of Nicole was located about 25 km (15 miles) NNW of Fort Pierce. The storm was moving WNW at 22 km/h (14 mph). Nicole weakened into a tropical storm by 09:00 UTC, when its center was located about 35 km (25 miles) NW of Vero Beach and 95 km (60 miles)SE of Orlando. It had maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph) and was moving WNW at 22 km/h (14 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 981 hPa. Nicole is a large tropical storm, bringing strong winds, dangerous storm surge and waves, and heavy rains over a large area, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. A turn toward the NW and NNW is expected later today and tonight, followed by an acceleration toward the N and NNE on Friday, November 11. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move across central Florida this morning, possibly emerge over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and then move across the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight and on Friday. Additional weakening is forecast while Nicole moves over land during the next day or two, and the storm is likely to become a tropical depression over Georgia tonight or early Friday. Nicole is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night. Nicole is the latest calendar year hurricane to make landfall on the east coast of Florida on record, breaking the old record set by the Yankee Hurricane on November 4, 1935. Only one hurricane has made landfall in the continental US on record (since 1851) after November 4 — Hurricane “Kate” near Mexico Beach, Florida on November 21, 1985, Dr. Philip Klotzbach said.
Tropical Storm Nicole sends Florida beachfront houses toppling into the ocean - Heavy rain and storm surge from Tropical Storm Nicole caused several houses and buildings to collapse into the Atlantic Ocean Thursday in Wilbur-By-The-Sea, Daytona Beach Shores, and other barrier island communities in Florida.Nicole made landfall near Vero Beach early Thursday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. It was the first November hurricane to make landfall in the state in 37 years, The Associated Press reports, and just the third on record.There are dozens of buildings in Volusia County that are now considered structurally unsafe due to damage sustained in the storm, with county manager George Recktenwald saying during a news conference that the "structural damage along our coastline is unprecedented. We've never experienced anything like this before." He added that it's unclear when evacuated residents will be able to return to their homes.Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University, toldAP the storm surge from Nicole was more destructive than it might have been in years past due to rising seas caused by climate change. In Florida, coastal flooding is higher and going deeper inland, and this is "going to happen elsewhere," Oppenheimer said. "It's going to happen all across the world." This comes more than a month after Florida was hit hard by Hurricane Ian,with more than 130 deaths reported and entire Gulf Coast neighborhoods wiped out. So far, police say Nicole has led to the deaths of two people in the Orlando area, who were electrocuted after touching downed power lines.
At least 2 reported dead as Nicole weakens after striking Florida’s east coast as the first US hurricane in November in nearly 40 years - At least two people have died during the damage wrought by Nicole’s overnight landfall Thursday along Florida’s eastern shore, which knocked out power to thousands, pushed buildings near collapse and flooded the coast as the first hurricane to hit the United States in November in nearly 40 years.Two people were “electrocuted by a downed power line” in Orange County, the Orange County Sheriff’s Office said in a press release.A tornado threat, plus powerful wind and heavy rain, are expected to continue Thursday in parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina after Nicole, which hit at Category 1 strength, weakened to a tropical depression. All tropical storm and storm surge warnings have however been discontinued. At least 49 beachfront buildings including 24 hotels and condos have been deemed “unsafe” following Hurricane Nicole in Volusia County, officials said in a press release. “The structural damage along our coastline is unprecedented,” county manager George Recktenwald said in the release. “We have never experienced anything like this before, so we ask for your patience as we make our assessments.An additional 11 structures on Daytona Beach shores have already been deemed compromised, according to Recktenwald.Volusia County officials have “declared a curfew in incorporated and unincorporated areas east of the Intracoastal Waterway from 11:22 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 10, through 7 a.m. Friday, Nov. 11,” said aVolusia County storm update.Two hundred residents were housed in county shelters, said the update. Three shelters remain open. Roughly 23,000 customers are without power in the county, according to PowerOutage.us.In Indian River County, officials Thursday morning will “be assessing debris and messaging cleanup plans,” said spokesperson Kathy Copeland. In St. Lucie County, there were so far “no serious reports of damages or injuries,” spokesperson Erick Gill said, adding, “Most likely the biggest impact is going to be beach erosion.”At 10 p.m. ET Thursday, Nicole was packing 35-mph sustained winds and centered about 20 miles north of Tallahassee, moving northwest at 15 mph.Up to 8 inches of rain could drench eastern, central and northern portions of Florida through Saturday. And between 2 to 6 inches are expected from parts of the US southeast to the southern and central Appalachians and western mid-Atlantic, the hurricane center said. Nicole weakened to a tropical storm shortly after landfall, and then became a depression late Thursday. It’s expected to become a post-tropical cyclone over the Southeast.
Hurricane Nicole: Florida picks up after storm kills at least 4 and leaves 'unprecedented' damage to Daytona-area coastline - As Nicole threatens the Carolinas and Virginia on Friday with tornadoes and flooding, Floridians – many still recovering from Hurricane Ian – are picking up the pieces after this week’s storm killed at least four people and ripped apart buildings with its dangerous storm surge and powerful winds. In Volusia County, Florida, at least 49 beachfront properties, including hotels and condos, have been deemed “unsafe” in the aftermath of Nicole, which hit Florida’s eastern coast south of Vero Beach as a Category 1 hurricane early Thursday before weakening into a tropical storm and now a depression. “The structural damage along our coastline is unprecedented,” Volusia County Manager George Recktenwald said in a news conference, adding more buildings will likely be identified as compromised As Nicole turns to the northeast, a tornado watch is in effect for portions of central and eastern North Carolina, northeastern South Carolina and central and eastern Virginia until 3 p.m. Friday, according to the Storm Prediction Center. As the storm walloped Florida, Ian-battered coastal buildings were compromised even more by coastal erosion, prompting deputies to go door to door Wednesday evacuating residents from structurally unsound buildings in Volusia County ahead of Nicole’s arrival. In Wilbur-By-The-Sea – a barrier island community off Daytona Beach – 22 homes were evacuated in advance after officials deemed them unsafe. Then amid Nicole, some oceanfront homes collapsed into the ocean. Trip Valigorsky unlocked the front door to his home to see a gaping hole leading to crashing ocean waves where his living room had once stood. Pointing to where the television and sofa used to be, he told CNN affiliate WKMG he was in shock. “I was here Tuesday night and I kind of watched the wall deteriorate, and then I woke up Wednesday morning and the wall was completely gone so I started evacuating,” Nicole also pushed a huge volume of water onshore, tearing through infrastructure already strained by Ian. Storm surge peaked Thursday morning at around 6 feet, sending rising ocean water to streets. A lower surge also pushed ashore on top of exceptionally high tides associated with this week’s full moon, keeping water levels high longer. Homes nearly hung off cliffs and Daytona Beach hotels crumbled into the ocean in the storm’s aftermath, drone video showed. “The devastation is almost impossible to comprehend. Imagine watching your home collapse into the ocean,”
Tropical Storm Nicole's Death Toll Reaches 5 -- Tropical Storm Nicole has taken the lives of at least five people.After making landfall in the Bahamas, Nicole arrived on Florida's Atlantic coast early Thursday morning as a rare November hurricane, according to NBC News. After initially being a Category 1 hurricane, it was downgraded to a tropical storm.In a press conference on Thursday, Orange County mayor Jerry Demings said four people have died so far from the natural disaster.Two people are dead after they were electrocuted by a downed power line by the storm, Demings said.Two others died after a car crash on the Florida turnpike in Orange County, Florida, he added. Additionally, Thomas Whittle — a 68-year-old man from Port Canaveral — died "after an attempted rescue early Thursday, during the peak of Hurricane Nicole's impact in Cocoa," the Cocoa Police Department announced on Facebook alongside footage of a boat rocking in heavy storm waters, hitting nearby rails. Police said they received a call at 4:33 a.m. local time "from a woman reporting her husband was in distress." The couple was on their yacht docked at Lee Wenner Park. "When police and firefighters arrived, they found [the] couple on the boat as it was being battered by the waves and the dock," police said. While firefighters were able to board the boat and perform CPR on Whittle, "the yacht broke loose from the dock and began to drift." Rescuers secured "the vessel with a rope" before Whittle and his wife were taken to a nearby hospital, where he was pronounced dead. His cause of death has yet to be determined, police said. In Volusia County, officials declared 49 beachfront buildings are "unsafe.""The structural damage along our coastline is unprecedented," Volusia County Manager George Recktenwald said via the county's website.He continued, "We have never experienced anything like this before, so we ask for your patience as we make our assessments. As always, the safety of our residents and visitors is our top priority. This is going to be a long road to recovery." Authorities also ordered for 24 hotels and condos to be evacuated, along with 25 single-family homes, the county's website added.
Nicole's Remnants To Track Through The East With Soaking Rain, Gusty Winds, Isolated Tornadoes- The remnants of Nicole will team up with a cold front in the East to produce soaking rain, gusty winds and a few tornadoes into Saturday morning. Early Thursday morning, Nicole became just the fourth November hurricane to landfall in the mainland U.S. in records dating to the mid-19th century, and the first to do so in 37 years.Nicole remains a tropical depression that's centered over Georgia right now. It's producing a widespread area of rain from the Southeast into parts of the upper Ohio Valley, Appalachians and mid-Atlantic.This area of rainfall will spread across the Northeast later Friday into Friday night as Nicole's remnants get absorbed by an approaching cold front.Rainfall totals could be 1 to 3 inches from portions of the Appalachians into the Northeast through Saturday morning. This could lead to localized flash flooding, particularly in the Appalachians and adjacent foothills, as well as parts of the Northeast. As with most tropical systems, some isolated tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible in Nicole's rainbands on Friday. Areas from the central and eastern Carolinas into the mid-Atlantic states have the greatest chance of seeing those possible threats.Nicole strengthened to a hurricane Wednesday evening while making its first landfall over Grand Bahama. A wind gust of 61 mph was recorded on the island Wednesday evening.Storm surge flooding was also captured on video Wednesday morning in Marsh Harbour, in the Abaco Islands of the Bahamas, pummeled by Hurricane Dorian in 2019. Winds have gusted up to 60 mph in Hope Town, according to the Bahamas Department of Meteorology.Large, pounding waves and coastal flooding impacted much of the Southeast coast well ahead of Nicole's arrival. Water levels topped out around 2 feet above normal along Florida's Atlantic coast with Wednesday morning's high tide.Flooding was reported around homes on Anastasia Island, near St. Augustine, and on some streets in West Palm Beach, Wednesday. A sea wall was breached by storm surge in St. Lucie County near Jensen Beach. Beach erosion undermined one structure and ate away at a parking lot of a hotel in Daytona Beach Shores.Significant flooding was also reported along the St. Johns River in northeast Florida, including around the Jacksonville metro area.Water was reported to be up to the heights of fire hydrants and mailboxes Thursday morning in Welaka, in Putnam County, in what the city's mayor said was worse flooding than Ian. The St. Johns River upstream at Astor, Florida, approached levels seen during record flooding from Hurricane Ian, before dropping a tad.
Colombia declares rainfall disaster after highest rainfall in 40 years - Colombian president Gustavo Petro declared a national rainfall disaster on November 1, 2022, after rainfall levels across the country this year exceeded levels seen in the past 40 years.The resulting flooding claimed the lives of at least 266 people by November, affected tens of thousands of people, and destroyed crops, aggravating the rising food inflation.Hundreds of homes were destroyed in just several days at the end of October.A state of national disaster allows the government to give $100 per month — half the minimum wage — to feed the children in households headed by women, and to subsidize fertilizers used by small-scale farmers, the president said.1In September, Colombia recorded annual inflation of 11.4% — the highest in 23 years.
Very strong M7.3 earthquake hits Tonga Islands region, Tsunami Advisory issued - A very strong earthquake, registered by the USGS as M7.3, hit the Tonga Islands region at 10:48 UTC on November 11, 2022. The agency is reporting a depth of 24.8 km (15.4 miles). EMSC is reporting M7.3 at a depth of 60 km (37 miles). The epicenter was located about 220.9 km (137.3 miles) ESE of Neiafu (population 4 320), Tonga, and 575.5 km (357.6 miles) SSW of Pago Pago (population 11 500), American Samoa. 27 000 people are estimated to have felt light shaking. Based on the preliminary earthquake parameters, hazardous tsunami waves are possible for coasts located within 300 km (180 miles) of the earthquake epicenter, NWS PTWC said. Based on all available data, the tsunami threat from this earthquake has now passed, PTWC said at 12:22 UTC.
Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption created the highest volcanic cloud ever recorded - (satellite videos) A new analysis published in Science shows the eruption at Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano in Tonga on January 15, 2022, created the highest volcanic cloud ever recorded. This is the first time a volcanic plume has been seen to penetrate the stratopause.The researchers led by Simon Proud, a National Centre for Earth Observation senior scientist at the University of Oxford and the Science and Technology Facilities Council’s RAL Space facility, used geostationary satellite images of the eruption to show that its volcanic cloud reached an altitude of 57 km (35.4 miles / 187 000 feet) above sea level at its highest extent.1This places the plume in the lower mesosphere and provides observational evidence of a volcanic eruption injecting material through the stratosphere and directly into the mesosphere.The mesosphere reaches between approximately 48 km and 80 km (30 – 50 miles) high and is the third layer of the atmosphere, above the troposphere and the stratosphere. Meteors falling to earth often burn up in the mesosphere, causing shooting stars in the night sky. It is the coldest part of Earth’s atmosphere, with temperatures near the top reaching as low as -143 °C (-225.4 °F).2In the study, the authors discuss the potential implications of this injection and suggest that the altitude reached by plumes from previous eruptions, such as the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, may have been underestimated because of a lack of observational data.The height of Mount Pinatubo volcanic plume is estimated at 40 km (131 200 feet) a.s.l.“It’s the first time we’ve ever recorded a volcanic plume reaching the mesosphere. Krakatau in the 1800s might have done as well, but we didn’t see that in enough detail to confirm,’ said Proud. The location of the Tonga volcano is covered by three geostationary weather satellites, 36 000 km (22 360 miles) up in space, so the researchers were able to apply the parallax effect to the aerial images these captured. Crucially, during the eruption itself, the satellites recorded images every 10 minutes, enabling the rapid changes in the plume’s trajectory to be documented. “Thirty years ago, when Pinatubo erupted, our satellites were nowhere near as good as they are now. They could only scan the earth every 30 minutes. Or maybe even every hour,’ said Dr. Proud. “We think for Pinatubo we actually missed the peak of the activity and the points where it went the highest: it fell between two of the satellite images and we missed it. In reality, it probably went quite a bit higher than the estimates that we have for its height.”
"I Heard A Big Bang": California Man Believes Meteorite Destroyed His Home - On Friday, dozens of people across Northern California witnessed a bright ball of light tumbling from the night sky. Several captured the phenomenon on camera, while one man believes the final destination of that bright light, which could be a meteorite, destroyed his home. "I heard a big bang," Nevada County resident Dustin Procita told local news KCRA's Michelle Bandur. Procita said after that loud noise, he "started to smell smoke. I went onto my porch and it was completely engulfed in flames." Bandur spoke with Josh Miller, captain of Penn Valley Fire Department, who said a call came in around 7:30 pm local time for a structure fire. It took firefighters several hours to combat the flames. "It appears the bright ball of light captured on car and home videos landed in the middle of nowhere. Procita believes it was a meteor that landed on his house," Bandur said. Miller told the reporter: "Everyone I talked to said it was a flaming ball falling from the sky and landed in that general area" of Procita's home. He said those who observed the fireball in the night sky tracked it to the incident area. "I had one individual tell me about it first and I put it in the back of my mind but then more people — 2, 3, 4 — started coming in and talking about it," he said. At the same time, the Southern Taurids meteor shower was at its peak in the region. Miller said it could take at least a week or more to determine the cause of the fire.
Meteorite impact investigated as a possible cause of fire that destroyed a house in California, U.S. - A family’s house in Nevada County, California caught fire after several witnesses described a bright ball of light falling from the sky. The fire took place at around 19:30 PDT on November 4, 2022 (02:30 UTC on November 5) — the same time as numerous witnesses saw a very bright fireball over the same region. The owner of the home — Dustin Procita — said he heard a big bang and started to smell smoke. “I went onto my porch and it was completely engulfed in flames.”Witnesses from all over the region saw a bright ball in the sky and followed its path to see where it landed. That path might have led to Procita’s home.1Penn Valley Fire Department Capt. Josh Miller says he didn’t see the bright ball but soon heard about it from witnesses.“I did not see what it was, but from everybody I talked to, it was a flaming ball falling from the sky and landed in that general area,” Miller said. “I had one individual tell me about it first, and like, ‘OK, I’ll put that in the back of my mind.’ But then more people – two, three, four more – started coming in and talking about it.”Miller says it will take about two weeks to determine the cause of the fire.Interestingly, a very bright fireball was seen by many people streaking through the night sky over northern California at around the same time Procito’s home caught fire.2According to the American Meteor Society (AMS), the fireball entered the atmosphere over northern California at 02:27 UTC on November 5, 2022 (19:27 PDT, November 4).Analysis of witness reports submitted to the AMS, the first sighting occurred when the meteor was 77 km (48 miles) above the town of Fort Jones.The object moved to the south at 51 500 km/h (32 000 mph), traveling around 46 km (29 miles) in the upper atmosphere before fragmenting at an altitude of 45 km (28 miles) above the hills just to the west of Callahan.The preliminary trajectory, however, does not fit the location of Procita’s home — which is located in Nevada County, about 240 km (150 miles) SSE.
Climate Projections Point To Dangerous 2.7C Rise By 2100 -The research partnership Climate Action Tracker on Thursday released its latest projections of how greenhouse gas emissions may dangerously raise the global average temperature. The result is similar to last year’s — a troubling 2.7C increase above pre-industrial levels if policies don’t improve — but a different point of comparison adds a new dimension to the finding. mThe key numbers in the updated projections:
- If current policies remain in place, the world will heat up by an average of 2.7C by 2100. That’s very, very deep into the danger zone.
- If 2030 targets are implemented, that figure drops to 2.4C — the same as CAT’s estimate last year.
- If countries pursue their stated, more aggressive carbon-cutting targets, it falls to 2C, which still fails the Paris agreement test of “well below” that very mark.
- In an optimistic scenario, where everything that can possibly go right goes right, warming is limited to 1.8C. But that’s a figure that Inger Andersen, UN Environment Program executive director, recently described as “not currently credible.”
The estimates are in line with a UN report released last month projecting a 2.5C end-of-century average temperature rise if countries meet only their current commitments. In a report detailing the projections, CAT researchers also document how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to accelerate a global rush for gas. There is more gas infrastructure proposed, approved or under construction than can likely exist without the world exceeding the Paris Agreement warming limit of 1.5C. Existing gas infrastructure alone pushes the world off the International Energy Agency’s “net zero emissions” pathway by 2030. As it stands, gas use by 2030 needs to be at least 30% below 2021 levels.“If this were only about replacing the Russian gas, we are totally overdoing it,” said Niklas Höhne, a climate policy scientist at Germany’s New Climate Institute who contributes to Climate Action Tracker. “And that is not good news.” The report lays down a stark dilemma: Either the gas building boom will put lower levels of global heating out of reach, or countries are rushing to construct assets that they will just as soon abandon.
Climate change threatening 'things Americans value most,' report says - Climate change is unleashing “far-reaching and worsening” calamities in every region of the United States, and the economic and human toll will only increase unless humans move faster to slow the planet’s warming, according to a sprawling new federal report released Monday.“The things Americans value most are at risk,” the National Climate Assessment authors, who represent a broad range of federal agencies, write in the draft report. “Many of the harmful impacts that people across the country are already experiencing will worsen as warming increases, and new risks will emerge.”The report’s authors detail how climate-fueled disasters are becoming more costly and more common, and how the science is more clear than ever that rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to slow the profound changes that are underway. The draft report, which probably will be finalized next year after a period of public comment and peer review, finds that in a world that has already warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, the situation in the United States is even more extreme. “Over the past 50 years, the U.S. has warmed 68 percent faster than the planet as a whole,” the report finds, noting that the change reflects a broader global pattern in which land areas warm faster than the ocean, and higher latitudes warm more rapidly than lower latitudes.Since 1970, the authors state, the continental United States has experienced 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit of warming, well above the average for the planet.“The United States — exclusive of Alaska — is warming about two-thirds faster than the planet as a whole,” said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth.That shift means significant parts of the country now must grapple with growing threats to safe drinking water, housing security and infrastructure. A hotter atmosphere creates a litany of health hazards, makes farming and fishing more difficult and unpredictable, and imperils key ecosystems.
Rate of sea level rise 'has doubled since 1993' thanks to climate change, report finds- The rate of global sea level rise is speeding up dramatically as temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, a new report finds, and now poses “a major threat to many millions” of people living on ocean coastlines.Sea levels have risen by an average of 10 millimeters since January 2020, reaching a new record high this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which issued a stark warning in its provisional State of the Global Climate in 2022 report, released Sunday. The WMO, a division of the United Nations, found a number of striking facts about climate change and its effects, including that “the past eight years are on track to be the eight warmest on record.”But the most alarming findings may be those related to sea level rise, as the encroaching ocean threatens major coastal population centers with stronger storms, higher storm surges and flooding. “The rate of sea level rise has doubled since 1993,” the WMO noted. “The past two and a half years alone account for 10 percent of the overall rise in sea level since satellite measurements started nearly 30 years ago.”One of the main causes of the accelerating pace of sea level rise is melting glaciers. According to the WMO, “2022 took an exceptionally heavy toll on glaciers in the European Alps, with initial indications of record-shattering melt. The Greenland ice sheet lost mass for the 26th consecutive year and it rained (rather than snowed) there for the first time in September.”Last week, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) issued a report on endangered glaciers finding that one-third of the glaciers in UNESCO World Heritage sites are expected to disappear by 2050. The remaining two-thirds can be saved if greenhouse gas emissions are cut quickly and deeply enough to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the report concluded.The devastating effects of melting glaciers is already being witnessed in Pakistan, where an unusually warm spring caused glacial melt that contributed to the floods that have submerged one-third of the country, displacing millions of residents. “The greater the warming, the worse the impacts,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. “We have such high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now that the lower 1.5°C of the Paris Agreement is barely within reach. It’s already too late for many glaciers, and the melting will continue for hundreds if not thousands of years. … Although we still measure this in terms of millimeters per year, it adds up to half to 1 meter per century, and that is a long-term and a major threat to many millions of coastal dwellers and low-lying states.”As the oceans rise from melting glaciers and polar ice caps, they also are getting warmer as they absorb more heat, causing their volume to expand further. Ocean temperatures reached record levels in 2021 (the latest year for which data was available). Hotter oceans lead to an array of effects on the ecosystem, includingcoral bleaching and declining fish populations. It also powers stronger storms like Hurricane Fiona, which recently devastated Puerto Rico with 30 inches of rain, causing landslides and overflowing rivers and widespread power outages.In 2022, the average global temperature is estimated to be about 1.15 °C above the 1850-1900 average. This actually could have been worse. For the first time in a century, La Niña, a weather pattern that causes cool water to rise to the surface in the Pacific Ocean — leading to cooler-than-usual weather — occurred for the third year in a row. The WMO estimates that this means 2022 will be the fifth- or sixth-hottest year on record, rather than the hottest ever. But the trend toward ever-higher temperatures remains clear.
'Teaching Our Children From Books, Not The Sea: How Climate Change Is Eroding Human Rights In Vanuatu --There's a lot at stake over the next fortnight as nations gather at the COP27 climate conference in Egypt. But the stakes are perhaps highest for the Pacific islands and their people.A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year said global warming above 1.5℃ would be“” for Pacific island nations. Sea-level rise could lead to the loss of entire Pacific countries this century.Such damage is a fundamental threat to the human rights of Pacific populations who, as one reminds us, are not merely“victims” of climate change, but“real people with dignity and dreams for the future”.We have been conducting research for the Vanuatu government into how climate change is affecting the human rights of the nation's highly exposed population. We've heard stories of loss and resilience from those whose lives and traditions are being ripped apart by this global catastrophe. Vanuatu has a of about 315,000 people, who live across and many smaller islands. Like other Pacific island nations, Vanuatu is highly exposed to climate change effects such as sea-level rise, coral bleaching and extreme tropical cyclones. In fact, the sea level around Vanuatu has risen by around 6mm per year since 1993, a rate nearly twice the global average. Vanuatu is seeking an“advisory opinion” from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to clarify the rights and obligations of states under international law in relation to harms from climate change. A majority of UN member states must agree to this opinion being provided. If Vanuatu succeeds, it could have extensive legal implications at a global, regional and national level.We undertook research for the Vanuatu government as part of this legal push. It involved a nation-wide survey to explore how locals in Vanuatu experience climate change and how it impinges on their human rights. Participants ranged in age from 18 to 76. They told of witnessing general climate change impacts such as intense cyclones, droughts, flooding and coastal inundation.They also told of decimation and loss of Indigenous knowledge around weather, seasons and medicines, as well as physical damage to traditional crops. One crop of particular concern was the yam – a starchy, edible root central to the identity of many people native to Vanuatu.Locals mark the yam harvest with rituals and ceremonies. However, climate change is disrupting these cultural rhythms. As one participant told us, altered weather patterns had led to failed germination, a higher prevalence of disease and root rot, and lower yields:Traditional medicines are similarly being lost at an alarming rate and are impinging on the health and wellbeing of local people.One participant told how children learnt from an early age to be self-sufficient – growing their own food, fishing on the reef and collecting crabs after school. The participant went on:The participant expressed fears that knowledge passed on by grandparents to younger generations about natural resource management would“die with my generation”:Traditional knowledge in Vanuatu is handed down between generations. Margaret Scheikowski/AAP What this means for COP27The stories we gathered during our research make one thing clear: climate change is real, it's impinging on the human rights of people in Vanuatu, and will continue to do so in future.
Egypt’s Alexandria in Danger of becoming a modern Atlantis, as Climate Conference opens in Sharm El Sheikh– The second-largest city in the country hosting this year’s international climate change conference, Alexandria in Egypt, will struggle for its life the rest of this century and may be 33% under water in only 30 years. We may be seeing the end of a city founded 2,353 years ago. The Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change first met in Berlin in 1995 and later negotiated the 1997 Kyoto Protocol as well as the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. COP27 is being convened this weekend in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. It is in some ways the best place for such a conference, considering that Egypt is one of the countries most threatened by the human-caused climate emergency. In other ways, it is less than ideal, since the Egyptian state is not very good on climate issues and has even harassed environmentalists. It is a highly authoritarian state that has jailed the heroic youth of the 2011 revolution, with one of them, Alaa Abdel Fattah, nearing death owing to a prison hunger strike. Alexandria was founded by Alexander the Great in 331 BCE after he took Egypt away from the Achaemenid Empire of Iran. Alexandria is synonymous with culture, having been the home town of Euclid and the site of the ancient Library, as well as the crucible of Neoplatonism . Today, Alexandria and its surroundings are the site of 40% of Egypt’s industrial production. It is the country’s major port, and important for its “manufacturing, shipping, warehousing, banking, food processing, and the production of petrochemicals and cement.” The problem? Alexandria is at the mouth of the Delta created by the Nile River. It is surrounded on three sides by the Mediterranean and has a big lake just behind it. It is vulnerable to rising seas on several accounts. Because the Nile was dammed at Aswan from 1958, it no longer deposits new silt in the Delta, which is therefore experiencing an erosion of its topsoil. The sediments in river valleys are also young and soft, given to sinking as a result. This sinking is accelerated by drilling for fossil gas deposits. Finally, the Mediterranean is rising, and could rise 3 feet by 2050. Since a good third of Alexandria is lower than that, much of the city will likely go under water. The city is already seeing substantial shoreline erosion, visible by satellite. The amount of rainfall the city receives is rapidly increasing, contributing to fears of flooding of low-lying areas. Sea level rise is caused by the melting of land ice, which flows into the oceans and raises their level. The ice is melting at both poles because of the heating of the earth caused by spewing billions of tons of dangerous heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere every year, such as carbon dioxide. Greenhouse gases are released when we burn gasoline in our cars, make electricity with coal or heat our homes with it, or use fossil gas.
As Egypt hosts COP27, political prisoner Alaa Abdel Fattah may die, family says - — When world leaders arrive in Egypt for the U.N. Climate Change Conference next week, they will have to dance around a subject that the government here would prefer not to discuss: human rights. Egyptian officials face mounting scrutiny over how the country can host the prestigious conference while thousands of people rights groups say were unjustly imprisoned remain behind bars — including Alaa Abdel Fattah, 40, a British Egyptian computer programmer and activist who has been on a partial hunger strike for more than 200 days. The conference will take place in the coastal resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh, far from the prison outside Cairo where, on Tuesday, Abdel Fattah reduced his daily 100-calorie intake to zero in a desperate bid to draw more attention to his case. If he is not released by the time the summit begins Sunday, he has told his family, he will stop drinking water. His sister Mona Seif tweeted Monday that if Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi and new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak “don’t resolve this he will die.” As Abdel Fattah’s condition has worsened over the past month, pressure has increased on Egypt to release him and others ahead of the summit, known as COP27.Climate activist Greta Thunberg visited Abdel Fattah’s family’s sit-in outside the Foreign Office in London, where another sister, Sanaa Seif, has been sleeping in a tent to demand a meeting with the foreign secretary. Dozens of British Parliament members have signed a letter in support of her request. Seif has also addressed the European Parliament, which in October adopted a resolution calling for Abdel Fattah and other prisoners of conscience to be released from Egyptian prisons before COP27. On Thursday, U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly tweeted that he had spoken with Abdel Fattah’s sisters on Wednesday night. “We will continue to work tirelessly for his release,” he wrote. “The Western diplomatic community is getting increasingly frustrated by the obfuscation and stonewalling” of the Egyptian government, said a Western diplomat with knowledge of the case who spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Egypt has released some prisoners in recent weeks but many continue to languish behind bars, including activist Ahmed Douma, blogger Mohamed “Oxygen” Ibrahim and lawyer Mohamed al-Baqer, who previously represented Abdel Fattah.
As climate change worsens, Egypt is begging families to have fewer kids - At 32, Rana Ragab already has five kids — and just found out she is pregnant with her sixth. She and her husband, a butcher, are thrilled. “He keeps telling everyone he sees: ‘Rana is pregnant!’” she said. “Clients are calling for orders and he tells them, ‘My wife is pregnant!’”The Egyptian government, though, sees families their size as a grave threat to the country — and has spent millions of dollars over the past several years trying to persuade parents to have fewer children.In public speeches, President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi has repeatedly scolded families for having more than two children, calling the population crisis a national security issue that has hindered progress on development goals.The state’s longtime anxiety over its birthrate is shared by many other countries in Africa, where natural resources and social services are struggling to keep pace with fast-growing populations. Nigeria has more than twice as many people as Egypt. The population of Ethiopia — locked in a longtime fight with Egypt over access to the Nile — has reached 121 million. More than 1 billion people already live in Africa. By 2050, the populations of at least 26 African countries are expected to double.The government in Cairo says the issue is more urgent than ever, as rising temperatures increasingly threaten the country’s food and water supplies — topics that will be near the top of the agenda during the U.N. Climate Change Conference, known as COP27, that begins Sunday in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh.As the host of COP27, Egypt has vowed to champion African concerns, which include how rapid population growth may heighten countries’ vulnerability to climate change. Africa is already severely impacted by climate change despite being responsible for only about 3 percent of global CO2 emissions. In Egypt, birth and fertility rates are gradually declining — just not fast enough. For the country to create enough jobs and improve national living standards, and to avoid resource shortages, it would need to reduce its yearly births from more than 2 million last year to around 400,000, the government has said. But more than 1 million babies were born in the past seven months alone — bringing the total population to 104 million, a nearly fivefold increase since the country won independence in the 1950s.
One Billionaire emits a Million times more CO2 than an Average Person, as Protesters block Private Planes at Amsterdam – Oxfam has a new study, Carbon Billionaires: The investment emissions of the world’s richest people. The Executive Summary says that they concluded that quite apart from the 3,300 or so billionaires, the wealthiest one percent in the world emit twice as much carbon dioxide as the bottom 50%. The top one percent, about 80 million people, are a big carbon problem, because if they go on as they are, their CO2 emissions alone will be 30 times larger than is compatible with keeping the heating of the earth to only 1.5°C above preindustrial times– the goal of the 2015 Paris Climate agreement.Zeroing in on 150 billionaires in the sample, a tiny proportion of the top one percent numerically but a significant proportion of the latter’s wealth holdings, the study found that together they had a stake in 183 companies that is valued at $2.4 trillion.If you calculate how many greenhouse gases are emitted by these 183 companies and look at how much of them is owned by each billionaire, you come to the conclusion that each of these fabulously wealthy persons is responsible for the emission of 3 million tons of carbon dioxide each year. An average person is estimated to emit 2.7 tons of CO2 every year. Thus, a million times more.Nafkote Dabi, Climate Change Lead at Oxfam, observed that these super-wealthy polluters “have escaped accountability for too long.” She added, “Emissions from billionaire lifestyles, their private jets and yachts are thousands of times the average person, which is already completely unacceptable. But if we look at emissions from their investments, then their carbon emissions are over a million times higher.”Public awareness of this problem is growing, however. On Monday, Extinction Rebellion and Greenpeace climate activists stopped private planes from taking off from a field at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport. Some sat against the wheels of the planes, others bicycled around the field. Inside the enormous airport, protesters waved picket signs and denounced that increase of private jet traffic in the Netherlands. Airplanes emit about 2.5% of the carbon dioxide humans put into the atmosphere each year. But the per capita amount is much higher for private jets that ferry around one or two persons. Eventually the police aggressively arrested them, as the protesters went limp and had to be dragged to paddy wagons.
COP27: How responsible are rich countries for global warming? - The United Nation's 27th annual climate summit, COP27, opened on Monday in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The event, which should pressure governments into ramping up their decarbonization pledges, will be the first to put the issue of financial compensation for damages suffered by developing countries at the top of the agenda. What is at stake and who are the movers and shakers of climate finance? Key to understanding this issue is the question of the 100 billion dollars. The figure refers to the pledge put forward by US president Barack Obama in December 2009 as negotiations threatened to break down at the ill-fated summit in Copenhagen. He proposed that rich countries pay US$100 billion per year from 2020 onwards to finance mitigation and adaptation policies in developing countries. At the time, this had less to do with "North-South solidarity" than the US president's attempt to secure emission-reduction pledges from major emerging countries. Led by China, none caved in. According to the OECD, 13 years later the pledge is on the cusp of being met. But developing countries greeted the news with some skepticism. In fact, the sum consists mostly of loans rather than grants. Nor is it clear if this will be a transfer of development aid or additional funds. Whatever the answer, recipients are likely to have next to no control over how the funds are used. As early as the first COP, held in 1991, a negotiation bloc made up of island states vulnerable to rising sea levels—the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)—recommended an "international financial compensation mechanism for loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change". Twelve years later, a first version saw the day at the COP19 in Warsaw. In 2015, the UN's overarching deal, known as the Paris Agreement, nevertheless specified it was a tool for cooperation, not compensation. A "dialogue on loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries" would finally have been brokered at COP26 in Glasgow (2021) (the so-called "Glasgow Climate Pact"). In recent years, countries from the Global South have pushed for a financial mechanism to compensate for damages to be launched at COP27. But the United States and Europe never wanted it and will not support the creation of a new fund. Instead, they will argue in favor of strengthening existing institutions. In climate negotiations, it is essential to understand the overarching concept of "common but differentiated responsibilities". Enshrined in the 1992 Climate Convention, it points to industrialized countries' historical responsibility in the climate crisis. Here again, the United States has long opposed the principle. Until now, it has exempted the countries of the South, including China, from any obligation to reduce emissions. In the past years, it has incorporated the issue of financing adaptation and financial compensation for damages suffered by the Global South. Economist Olivier Godard has noted the historical responsibility of industrialized countries is not as simple to make out as it might seem, be it on legal and moral grounds or even statistics. To appreciate this at a quantitative level, the graph below shows annual and cumulative greenhouse-gas emissions of industrialized countries (known as the Annex 1 group in the Climate Convention) and developing countries, including major emerging economies such as China (the non–Annex 1 group). After the second oil shock in 1980, emissions from Annex 1 countries peaked and began to slowly decline. By contrast, emissions of non–Annex 1 countries have continued to increase, and exponentially. As a result, while the emissions of industralized countries were twice those of the "developing countries + China" group in 1980, today the situation has been reversed. For cumulative emissions—those that could measure historical responsibility—before the full spread of the industrial revolution in the North in the late 19th century, the emissions of the countries of the South dominate.Moreover, the acceleration of economic growth in emerging countries since the 1990s has seen emissions soar. As a result, their emissions have increasingly exceeded those of the Annex 1 countries for the past 20 years.When it comes down to individual responsibility, however, per capita emissions are still much higher in the North than in the South, mainly because of the intensity of their energy consumption. The one major exception is China, where per capita emissions now exceed those of the European Union.As we can see, it is impossible to settle the question of historical responsibility. No figure, nor any theory of justice will ever be able to establish a consensus, and this question will constitute a stumbling block for all negotiations.
COP27: Rich Countries Should Help Pay For Global Warming Elsewhere -UN climate talks began in Egypt Sunday with a deal to discuss how rich countries can help pay for the damages caused by global warming elsewhere. The breakthrough, reported in advance by Bloomberg, will allow diplomats to officially debate so-called “loss and damage” for the first time during the two-week conference in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh resort. Developing countries have been demanding a discussion on climate reparations since Conference of Parties, or COP, meetings started in the early 1990s. But industrialized nations that have prospered for two centuries at the expense of the planet repeatedly blocked efforts to add it to the agenda, fearing it would open demands for billions of dollars in compensation from poorer countries. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said the breakthrough was reached after 48 hours of intense talks concluded with a compromise; the discussion would focus on “cooperation and facilitation” not “liability or compensation.” “Inclusion of this agenda reflects a sense of solidarity and empathy with the suffering of the victims,” Shoukry said after taking up his position as COP27 president Sunday. The delegates would aim to reach a conclusive decision on loss and damage “no later than 2024,” he said. A year of record heat, drought and floods has added urgency to this year’s climate talks. A report issued Sunday by the UN World Meteorological Organization said global temperatures are likely to end the year about 1.15C above the pre-industrial average -- an acceleration that’s unleashed “climate chaos” across the planet. The world is currently on track to miss its target to limit global warming to 1.5C by the century’s end. With the gathering hosted by an African country that’s warming faster than the rest of the world, climate reparations are expected to be a key focus. Developing countries and small island states contributed a tiny amount to historical emissions of planet-warming gases but have been battered by the impact. They had stepped up in recent weeks demands for the issue to at least be discussed. The smooth adoption of the agenda followed behind-the-scenes negotiations to avoid a skirmish at the start of the conference when the order of proceedings is agreed. The opening session was delayed for more than an hour to accommodate final discussions on wording. While Sunday’s agreement counts as a diplomatic success, countries will now have to work out how best to measure loss and damage and how much money will be put on the table by the wealthiest to help the rest. Developing nations have been burned before. A plan announced in 2009 to provide an annual $100 billion of mitigation and adaptation finance has never been met. The Alliance of Small Island States welcomed Sunday’s development but said the issue should have been addressed long ago. Instead, rich countries continued to burn fossil fuels that are threatening the survival of some islands.
Countries Set To Bolster Global Methane Pledge At COP27 -The EU and US put methane on the map at COP26 in Glasgow — declaring the potent greenhouse gas a threat to Paris Agreement temperature goals and insisting emissions of it must be slashed 30% by 2030. In the year since, European countries and the US have successfully encouraged more than 120 countries to sign on to a formal methane-cutting pledge, and at the UN climate conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, about 40 of them are set to outline their plans for doing so, according to a senior State Department official. The US, EU and Japan also are set to announce on Nov. 17 a commitment to clean up methane emissions tied to the extraction and transport of oil and gas. Nations will also deliver updates on their progress in tackling releases from wells during a separate session on Friday. And, the US Environmental Protection Agency is on track to unveil the latest iteration of its plan to regulate methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, following on an outline issued a year ago. And while it isn’t a member of the pledge, China is expected to roll out its own strategy for combating methane. The moves represent a collective effort to go after a greenhouse gas that is estimated to be 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at warming the atmosphere in the first two decades years after it is released. Because methane packs a powerful punch in the near term, reductions can quickly yield results — unlike the longer payoff time for carbon dioxide cuts — and help keep the earth’s temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius. The strategy was just validated by a report from the United Nations Environment Program and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, which finds that methane cuts in the next decade will keep the planet significantly cooler than focusing solely on deep decarbonization (which yields big temperature reductions after 2050). So far, however, the world is going in the opposite direction. A year after the global methane pledge was unveiled, the amount of methane in the atmosphere is increasing at record rates. Last year saw the largest annual increase recorded since the start of global monitoring four decades ago. That underscores the need to move quickly in translating the global methane pledge and individual country plans into action, said Jonathan Banks, global director of methane pollution prevention at the Clean Air Task Force. “We need to move out of the promises and more towards the action pieces, whether it's sectoral actions or larger actions,” Banks said. The methane pledge, still in its infancy, also can be developed further with more transparency and measurement of progress, he said. Agriculture and livestock are the biggest source of methane from human activity, followed by emissions from the energy sector and waste. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, also can be generated during oil and coal extraction. And scientists say the easiest and cheapest ways to cut back on releases in the short term is in the oil and gas sector. New pledge initiatives will be unveiled during a Nov. 17 ministerial meeting on methane on the sidelines of COP27, said people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the session hasn’t been publicly announced. The ministerial will be an opportunity for member countries to outline their progress toward the methane-cutting goal. Environmental activists and pledge supporters say the initiative has helped spur action by individual countries that might not have happened otherwise. Consider an effort by New Zealand to target agricultural emissions of methane, released during the cows’ digestion process. Australia last month also agreed to join the pledge, after months of wrestling with the idea — and election of a new prime minister who promised a “new era” of climate action. And in June, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador committed to a $2 billion effort by state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos to reducing large-scale flaring, venting and leakage of methane.
30 Companies Emit Nearly Half Of Energy Sector Methane -Just 30 fossil fuel companies account for nearly half of the planet-warming methane emitted by the world’s energy sector, according to a new analysis by Global Energy Monitor. They include state-owned oil firms, publicly-listed energy majors and big coal producers, with National Iranian Oil Co., Russia’s Gazprom PJSC and China Energy Investment Corp. ranked as the top three emitters. Gazprom said it “consistently reduces the impact of its production activities on the environment” and has “minimal methane emissions throughout the entire production chain.” China Energy and Iran’s oil ministry and company did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Methane is the primary component of natural gas but can also be generated during oil and coal production. It has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide during its first two decades in the atmosphere and is responsible for around 30% of the global rise in temperatures since the industrial revolution. For decades, fossil fuel producers deliberately released methane if they didn’t have the infrastructure to get it to market, but governments and institutions including the International Energy Agency are now calling on them to halt all non-emergency releases of the gas. That action is seen as one of the easiest and cheapest ways to cool the planet fast. “There are vast differences between countries in how much methane they emit for each unit of oil and gas they extract. This shows that these emissions are avoidable,” Mason Inman, one of the authors of the report, said. “About half of oil and gas methane emissions could be eliminated at no net cost to the companies, since they would capture more natural gas and be able to sell it.” More than 120 countries have signed the Global Methane Pledge, a US and EU-led effort that aims to slash methane emission at least 30% by the end of this decade and maintain a pathway that limits global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius. If the 30 corporate emitters highlighted in the GEM report reduced their methane emissions to zero, this would account for more than 80% of the total reductions envisioned for the fossil fuel sector to meet the 2030 pledge, Inman said. The energy industry is responsible for about 35% of global methane emissions generated from human activity, second only to agriculture. The IEA estimates that coal, oil, and gas operations emitted 126 million metric tons of methane last year. GEM’s analysis suggests that 19 oil and gas companies and 11 coal miners were responsible for 54 million tons of those emissions.
Corporations in the hot seat at U.N. climate summit - With war, inflation and electoral chaos preoccupying world leaders, the Biden administration is looking for corporations to take center stage as the U.N. Climate Change Conference gets underway in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.At the summit, known as COP27, the administration and its partners will unveil a plan for private companies to finance the energy transition of developing countries, according to U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of discussions.While government action typically dominates these talks, political paralysis and public pressure are pushing companies to step up with their own emission pledges — and money to help poorer countries bearing the brunt of climate change’s impacts.Government funding alone can’t cover most of what vulnerable countries need, said John D. Podesta, senior adviser to President Biden on climate change, in an interview. Some $3.8 trillion in annual investment is needed in the next three years to meet the world’s climate goals, including reducing emissions and helping nations adapt to the impacts of climate change. Only 16 percent of that money is now flowing, according to a new report from the Rockefeller Foundation and BCG Research.“Private-sector capital flows … that’s where the real money is,” said Podesta, who will be one of the first White House officials to arrive at the negotiations. “We’re talking billions when the need is trillions. We’ve got to unlock that [private-sector] capacity for people to make investments in building a clean-energy future or else we’ll miss both the development goals and the climate goals.”There are few expectations for a breakthrough governmental climate deal at this year’s summit, one reason corporations are in the spotlight.“Anything this hard does not get resolved with a global diplomatic committee,” said David Victor, co-director of the Deep Decarbonization Initiative at the University of California at San Diego. “It gets resolved with a small group of highly motivated actors who go off and do stuff and drag everyone else along.”
UN experts call for standards to prevent ‘greenwashing’ in climate pledges - A panel of experts from the United Nations is calling for standards that it says will separate legitimate climate commitments from public relations campaigns. The group issued a report that it said aims to “draw a red line” around “greenwashing” — that is, making one’s record appear greener than it actually is. It said that these standards are necessary to weed out “low-quality” climate pledges. “The risk is clear. If greenwash premised upon low-quality net zero pledges is not addressed, it will undermine the efforts of genuine leaders, creating both confusion, cynicism and a failure to deliver urgent climate action,” the group said. “Which is why, ultimately, regulations will be required to establish a level playing field and ensure that ambition is always matched by action,” it added. The report said that companies that claim to be on a path to “net-zero” emissions can’t also build or invest in new fossil fuel supplies, given that the fuels are the main driver of climate change. “Net-zero” refers to when the sum total of a company’s planet-warming emissions equals zero, accounting for actions to offset those emissions, like planting trees. The report also said “net-zero” companies cannot credibly lobby to undermine ambitious government climate policies, either on their own or as part of trade associations.
UN chief: It is either a "climate change solidarity pact" or a "suicide pact" - United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called for a "climate solidarity pact" between rich and poor nations to limit the severity of global warming in a COP27 speech. Guterres places a high priority on tackling climate change, and the proposal emphasizes the rapidly closing window to limit the extent of warming.Speaking to world leaders at the COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, Guterres spoke in stark terms: "We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator," he said. "Humanity has a choice: cooperate or perish."A solidarity pact would involve countries pushing to slash greenhouse gas emissions in such a way to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree target, and wealthier nations providing financial and technical help to developing countries for them to transition to cleaner energy sources. Guterres also advocated for a coal phase-out in industrialized nations by 2030, and elsewhere by 2040. To realize his vision would require cooperation between the world's two largest emitters, the United States and China. However, right now, these two countries are not speaking formally on climate or other issues due to tensions over Taiwan. “The two largest economies — the United States and China — have a particular responsibility to join efforts to make this pact a reality," Guterres stated. "This is our only hope of meeting our climate goals." Guterres endorsed developing countries' push for a financial mechanism to be negotiated at COP27 that provides for climate damage payments for the developing nations that contributed the least to causing climate change, but that are seeing some of its worst impacts."Getting concrete results on loss and damage is a litmus test of the commitment of governments to the success of COP27," he stated.Climate damages, known as "loss and damage" in the UN climate talks, is on the official agenda for the first time at COP27, though with key caveats, such as a 2024 deadline for working out the details. Developing countries, such as flood-ravaged Pakistan, are seeking financing details far sooner, ideally at this COP. "It is either a Climate Solidarity Pact — or a Collective Suicide Pact," Guterres said, given increasingly severe climate change impacts.
We’re on a ‘highway to climate hell,' UN chief Guterres says, calling for a global phase-out of coal -- The United Nations secretary general issued a stark warning Monday, telling attendees at the COP27 summit that the world was losing its fight against climate change while also repeating his call to phase-out coal by the year 2040. "We are in the fight of our lives, and we are losing," Antonio Guterres said. "Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing, global temperatures keep rising, and our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible," Guterres, who was speaking in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, added. "We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator." Expanding on his point, the ex-prime minister of Portugal said the war Ukraine and other conflicts had "caused so much bloodshed and violence and had dramatic impacts all over the world." "But we cannot … accept that our attention is not focused on climate change." While collaboration was needed to bolster peace efforts and end "tremendous suffering," climate change was "on a different timeline, and a different scale." "It is the defining issue of our age. It is the central challenge of our century. It is unacceptable, outrageous and self-defeating to put it on the back burner." Many of the conflicts taking place around the world, Guterres said, were "linked with growing climate chaos." The war in Ukraine had exposed "the profound risks of our fossil fuel addiction" and the crises of today could not, he argued, be used as an excuse for "backsliding or greenwashing." The climate problem had been caused by human activity, so the solution lay in human action, Guterres said. "The science is clear: Any hope of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees means achieving global net-zero emissions by 2050," he later added. "But that 1.5 degree goal is on life support — and the machines are rattling." The reference to 1.5 degrees is a nod to 2015's Paris Agreement, which aims to "limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels." Cutting human-made carbon dioxide emissions to net-zero by 2050 is seen as crucial when it comes to meeting the 1.5 degrees Celsius target.
'A Twisted Joke': 636 Fossil Fuel Lobbyists Swarm COP27 Climate Talks - The COP27 talks in Egypt have been billed as an opportunity for countries to "showcase unity" against the existential threat of climate change, but an analysis released Thursday shows there are more fossil fuel lobbyists attending the conference than representatives of the 10 nations most affected by the crisis, heightening concerns that industry influence will water down any agreements reached at the event.A data analysis of the United Nations' provisional attendance list for the closely watched conference shows that 636 fossil fuel lobbyists have been registered at the talks, up 25% from last year's COP26 conference in Glasgow."Big polluters like fossil fuel lobbyists have once again converged to greenwash their polluting image."According to Corporate Accountability, Corporate Europe Observatory, and Global Witness—the groups that conducted the analysis—there are more fossil fuel lobbyists registered at COP27 than any single national delegation with the exception of the United Arab Emirates.While officials from the conference's host country of Egypt have characterized the talks as "the African COP," pledging to center the developing world in negotiations over climate solutions, fossil fuel lobbyists outnumber any national delegation from Africa, where oil and gas giants areaggressively pursuing new fossil fuel development even as climate-driven extreme weather ravages the continent.Additionally, the new analysis shows there are more fossil fuel lobbyists at COP27 than officials from Puerto Rico, Myanmar, Haiti, the Philippines, Mozambique, The Bahamas, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand, and Nepal, which the GermanWatch Global Climate Risk Index deems the 10 countries most impacted by the worsening global climate emergency."With time running out to avert climate disaster, major talks like COP27 absolutely must advance concrete action to stop the toxic practices of the fossil fuel industry that is causing more damage to the climate than any other industry," said a spokesperson for the three watchdog organizations. "The extraordinary presence of this industry's lobbyists at these talks is therefore a twisted joke at the expense of both people and planet."A list published by Corporate Accountability, Corporate Europe Observatory, and Global Witness shows that corporations and trade groups attending COP27 include the U.S. Chamber of Commerce—a powerful lobbying organization that has been dubbed the "chamber of carbon"—as well as Exxon, Chevron, and other major oil and gas firms.The U.S.-based public relations firm that the Egyptian government hired to run communications for COP27 has close ties to the fossil fuel industry, with a client list that includes Exxon. The outsized presence of the industry most responsible for the climate crisis has outraged climate campaigners, who are vocally protesting polluters' influence on the COP27 talks as they continue to produce woefullyinsufficient action plans.Corporate Accountability, Corporate Europe Observatory, and Global Witness noted that unlike fossil fuel lobbyists, activists from the Global South and others harmed disproportionately by the climate crisis "have effectively been shut out of the talks by high costs, visa challenges, and repressive actions by the hosting country.""Rather than being the start of the real climate action needed, COP27 looks set to be a festival of fossil fuels and their polluting friends, buoyed by recent bumper profits," a spokesperson for the coalition said."Tobacco lobbyists wouldn't be welcome at health conferences, arms dealers can’t promote their trade at peace conventions," the spokesperson added. "Those perpetuating the world's fossil fuel addiction should not be allowed through the doors of a climate conference. It's time governments got out of the pockets of polluters, come to their senses, and help make COP27 the success the world vitally needs it to be."
COP27: Pakistan Leads Push For "Loss and Damage" Compensation at Sharm El-Sheikh -- COP27, the United Nations climate summit, opened in Egypt on Sunday with the addition of negotiations over funding to compensate nations for “loss and damage” as an official agenda item. Pakistan led the push for it with the support of 134 developing nations. Discussions at COP26 in Scotland were mainly focused on funding "mitigation" and "adaptation", not compensation for "loss and damage". The "loss and damage" agenda item was proposed by Pakistan during talks at Bonn after the country suffered heavy losses in unprecedented floods that hit a third of the country. “My country, Pakistan, has seen floods that have left 33 million lives in tatters and have caused loss and damage amounting to 10% of the GDP,” said Ambassador Munir Akram, the 2022 chair of the G77—a group of 134 developing countries, at the opening session of COP27 at Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt. Pakistan has contributed only 0.28% of the CO2 emissions but it is among the biggest victims of climate change. The US, Europe, India, China and Japan, the world's biggest polluters, must accept responsibility for the catastrophic floods in Pakistan and climate disasters elsewhere. A direct link of the disaster in Pakistan to climate change has been confirmed by a team of 26 scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution, a research initiative that specializes in rapid studies of extreme events, according to the New York Times. Currently, the biggest annual CO2 emitters are China, the US, India and Russia. Pakistan's annual CO2 emissions add up to just 235 million tons. On the other hand, China contributes 11.7 billion tons, the United States 4.5 billion tons, India 2.4 billion tons, Russia 1.6 billion tons and Japan 1.06 billion tons. The United States has contributed 399 billion tons (25%) of CO2 emissions, the highest cumulative carbon emissions since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century. The 28 countries of the European Union (EU28), including the United Kingdom, come in second with 353 billion tons of CO2 (22%), followed by China with 200 billion tons (12.7%). Pakistan's cumulative CO2 contribution in its entire history is just 4.4 billion tons (0.28%). Among Pakistan's neighbors, China's cumulative contribution is 200 billion tons (12.7%), India's 48 billion tons (3%) and Iran's 17 billion tons (1%). Pakistan has contributed little to climate change but it has become one of its biggest victims. In the 2015 Paris agreement on climate change, signatories agreed to recognize and “address” the loss and damage caused by those dangerous climate impacts, according to the Washington Post. Last year, at the major U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, negotiators from developing countries tried to establish a formal fund to help the countries like Pakistan most affected by climate disasters. It was blocked by rich countries led by the Biden administration. Formal addition of "loss and damage" item at this year's COP27 conference agenda is a good start. Let's hope that a formal fund is established by the world's top polluters to compensate Pakistan and other developing nations.
As wealthy nations take heat for warming planet, new coalition unveils $100 billion plan - — With international climate aid yet to win support in Congress, the Biden administration has orchestrated a new proposal from major philanthropies and companies that would funnel private money to developing countries for clean energy development. Seeking to tap private funds for a transition that wealthy governments have refused to finance, the group hopes to lure more than $100 billion by the end of the decade, cutting as much as 1.3 billion to 2.3 billion tons of climate pollution, according to the consulting firm Climate Advisers. The coalition, which includes White House climate envoy John F. Kerry, unveiled its carbon-trading plan at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, known as COP27, and it quickly faced criticism. At this contentious summit, developing countries have lambasted wealthy nations for not helping to rescue them from the worst impacts of a warming planet. “Wealthy countries are stepping up their support — but still not enough. Our administration is working as hard as we can to deliver,” Kerry said in announcing the program. “I hope today is the beginning of doing that, to deliver real and lasting benefits for developing countries and the climate.” Supporters — the State Department along with the Rockefeller Foundation, Bezos Earth Fund, and companies such as PepsiCo and Microsoft — say the proposal may be the most effective way of financing clean energy and shutting down coal plants in the absence of global cooperation. “The only way to prevent climate catastrophe is to come together in new ways and behind new innovations, like carbon markets,” said Rajiv Shah, president of the Rockefeller Foundation. Starting in December, Bezos Earth Fund and the Rockefeller Foundation will provide initial resources to support further negotiations.
US Plan for Carbon Offsetting Raises Skepticism at COP27 - The Biden administration wants corporations to fund renewable energy projects in developing countries in a way that allows the companies to count resulting cuts in greenhouse gases against their own climate goals. John Kerry, President Biden’s climate envoy, intends to announce on Wednesday a program that his advisers say could inject tens of billions of private dollars into the economies of developing countries struggling to replace coal, oil and gas with wind, solar and other renewable power. The program, known in climate circles as a carbon offset plan, is the product of months of discussions between Mr. Kerry and major corporations as well as philanthropic groups like the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bezos Earth Fund, according to several people involved in the talks who were not authorized to discuss them publicly. “We need to increase finance by orders of magnitude from what it is now,” said Nathaniel Keohane, the president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, an environmental group that is supporting the plan. But the initiative has been met with skepticism from some European nations and by the United Nations secretary general’s staff because they felt the plan lacked details and was rushed, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions. Some influential environmental groups in the United States that were briefed by the State Department on the strategy, including the Natural Resources Defense Council and the World Resources Institute, were not supporting the plan either because they feared it could actually undermine efforts to drive down global emissions to zero, activists said.
Biden’s COP27 Climate Message Might Not Be the One the World Wants - — When President Biden walks into the United Nations climate summit here on Friday, he could fairly boast of returning the United States to the global fight to keep the planet from dangerously overheating, and of turbocharging America’s move away from fossil fuels. But instead of being hailed as a president who passed a landmark climate law, Mr. Biden will join a gathering where developing nations have spent all week excoriating the United States and other industrialized nations for causing climate change and demanding reparations — a call that some European leaders have begun to answer with monetary pledges, squeezing Mr. Biden to do the same.President Emmanuel Macron of France said that Europe was already helping poorer countries, and that other Western nations needed to do more. “Europeans are paying,” he said. “We are the only ones paying.”“Pressure must be put on rich non-European countries, telling them, ‘You have to pay your fair share,’” Mr. Macron said, in a not-too-veiled reference to the Americans.But with control of Congress still unclear after Tuesday’s midterm elections, there is little Mr. Biden can offer. If Republicans are in charge come January, there will be less money, not more, to help foreign nations cope with climate change, as well as fresh efforts to slow down or block the president’s climate agenda.And even with Democrats in the majority on Capitol Hill, Mr. Biden has failed to make good on an earlier promise by the United States to contribute to a fund to help poor nations that are struggling from a barrage of floods, fires, drought and heat waves for which they are ill-prepared and have done little to cause.In 2021, Mr. Biden pledged $11.4 billion annually by 2024; last year, he secured just $1 billion toward that goal from a Congress controlled by Democrats.While many countries appreciate Mr. Biden’s effort, some view it as inadequate, said Rachel Kyte, dean of the Fletcher School of Diplomacy at Tufts University. “You hear the language from developing countries and it’s like a sharp knife,” she said. “I hear African leaders say: ‘We’ve always understood the Congress is difficult. But do the American people not understand what’s happening to the planet?’”Mr. Biden is the only leader of a major polluting country to attend the climate talks in Egypt — President Xi Jinping of China, President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India all stayed away.
Offshore CCS Projects Could Breath New Life Into Gulf Of Mexico With six offshore carbon capture storage (CCS) projects in development or planning phases, operators look to breathe new life into the US Gulf of Mexico. According to an analysis by Wood Mackenzie, there are currently 22 CCS projects in the US, which accounts for 19% of global activity. Texas and Louisiana combined for close to 500 million tCO2e of emissions in 2021, 20% of the US total emissions. With the US targeting greenhouse gas emission reductions of 50% from 2005 levels by 2030, these new CCS projects could play an important role. However, many challenges remain to make these successful. “The US Gulf of Mexico has long been a technology pioneer for the global upstream industry. As the basin matures, a thriving offshore CCS market could be the next step that keeps this region relevant and at the forefront of innovation. Offshore CCS is still in early stages. There are only three projects in operation across the globe, two in the North Sea and one in South America. The GoM can position itself as the frontrunner for successful offshore CCS projects,” said Kim Dowdell, upstream research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. Woodmac went on to say that initial projects won’t target upstream emissions. Instead, projects will target emissions from the Gulf Coast’s large industrial sector, which includes refining, petrochemicals, gas liquefaction, cement, power generation, and much more. Emissions from these operations would be piped to former rigs retrofitted for sequestering. CO2 can then be safely injected into saline aquifers or depleted oil and gas reservoirs. “Those long-term emissions are better suited for CCS. The GoM players won’t be contributing the initial CO2. Instead, they will bring their expertise, project management skills, and reservoir knowledge to the table,” Dowdell added. While projects are underway, operators still face challenges and risks to achieving success. Wood Mackenzie has outlined several major challenges facing decarbonization efforts in the GoM. Namely, there is no current policy or regulations that govern offshore carbon sequestration in the United States. For federal waters, BOEM is expected to announce regulations by November 2022. For state waters, companies will rely on the ability of the states to be granted primacy. As for the workforce, operators will have to find ways to redeploy technical staff from traditional oil and gas positions onto low-carbon teams while the bulk of subsea architecture is not constructed to flow CO2 in its liquid phase. Repurposing current trunklines will be difficult and will require new builds.
Foxconn ramps up EV push with stake in U.S. truck maker Lordstown (Reuters) - Lordstown Motors Corp has agreed a deal under which a Foxconn affiliate will invest up to $170 million in the electric vehicle (EV) maker, making the Taiwanese contract manufacturer its biggest shareholder with a near 20% stake.Foxconn Ventures Pte Ltd will purchase 12.9 million shares on or after Nov. 22 and an additional 26 million shares that will propel Foxconn's holdings to 18.3% of Lordstown's common stock and all of its preferred stock, surpassing founder Stephen Burn's stake of 17.2%, according to Refinitiv.Lordstown will use the proceeds from the share sales to fund development and design activities for a new electric vehicle program in collaboration with Foxconn, scrapping its earlier joint venture deal with the manufacturer, it said in a filing, sending shares up 7% to $2.06 in extended trading on Monday.Foxconn said the deal would deepen Lordstown's ties with Foxconn's EV development platform MIH, or Mobility in Harmony."In the future, there will also be opportunities to share LMC's technical resources with other customers, further expanding the MIH EV ecosystem, and enabling customers to choose better solutions and be more competitive," Foxconn said.Separately, the startup reported a net loss of $154.4 million in the quarter ended Sept. 30, wider than loss of $95.8 million, a year earlier.While demand for electric vehicles has surged globally, supply chain disruptions and rising material costs have made it tough for companies to raise output and meet red-hot demand.Foxconn started manufacturing Lordstown's Endurance pickup trucks in September after buying the U.S. company's Ohio facility. The deal was prompted by the need to clinch funds essential for the start of production of Endurance. Lordstown expects to limit production of the Endurance through 2023 or longer to minimize losses, until it is able to cut its materials cost. Lordstown said on Monday that its cost of materials to build its Endurance electric pickup truck was higher than the price it intends to sell at, adding that it would not see positive gross margins until its bill of materials cost reduced.
As FERC’s transmission proposal sparks clashes, potential solutions emerge from MISO, elsewhere -- FERC’s proposal to reform transmission planning has provoked a confrontation over federal and state control of transmission expansion, prompting some stakeholders to call for new oversight. But U.S. transmission’s 1% annual growth must more than double to an average of about 2.3% to meet federal climate goals, according to Princeton University’s September report, Electricity Transmission is Key to Unlock the Full Potential of the Inflation Reduction Act. With hundreds of billions in largely ratepayer dollars for transmission at stake, and potentially much more as climate crisis-driven extreme events worsen, proposed solutions to accelerate transmission building by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have sparked debate.FERC wants “to socialize the costs” of a “massive transmission build-out” for what many see as “an aspirational renewable future,”Commissioner James Danly, appointed by President Trump, said, adding that decisions on transmission are best made by the states hosting it. FERC is “not the Good Ideas Commission,” and its “pervasive, and invasive ‘reforms’” are “unjust and unreasonable,” and will lead to “protracted proceedings, litigation, and risk,” he wrote. The FERC proceeding filings show “the electric system needs to evolve” to benefit regions and the U.S. climate fight, responded former FERC Commissioner John Norris, a President Obama appointee. “The economy has evolved into an international market, but too much power remains with local utilities to maximize their own assets’ value instead of building a more efficient system,” he said.New transmission is vital to the cost-effectiveness of federal plans for clean energy investments, Utility Dive recently reported. With a Senate permitting law now in doubt, FERC reform of planning factors like who benefits, who builds, who pays, and who does oversight is urgently needed to resolve impediments to development, stakeholders agreed – without agreeing on which reforms will work.
Fossil fuel, renewable trade groups explore potential paths to energy bipartisanship in a divided Congress - Which party will control Congress in January remains an open question on the second day following the midterm election, but experts say there are some areas for potential bipartisan energy policy in a divided government scenario. In the first two years of President Joe Biden’s term, there have been “major debates” around improving access to critical minerals, incentives for domestic clean energy manufacturing and the siting of energy infrastructure like transmission lines and pipelines, said Scott Segal, partner at Bracewell and chair of the firm's policy resolution group. “It seems like all of those things could be the basis for bipartisan consideration,” he said in a Wednesday webinar focused on the election results. Some election analysts anticipate Republicans will take control of the House, opening a path to greater oversight and investigation into funds spent through the Inflation Reduction Act. The Biden administration must go “head down, full force ahead, to get the regulations out to implement the IRA,”Senate races in Arizona and Nevada are still being tallied and a runoff in Georgia may be required, while dozens of House seats remain uncalled on Wednesday morning. But energy policy experts say they see some potential for bipartisanship, regardless of how the balance of power shakes out.“Removing obstacles to the clean energy revolution and to sufficient production of conventional sources of energy seem to be potential areas of common ground,” Segal said.The Senate has already made attempts at finding common ground on transmission siting this year. In September, Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., was unable to find sufficient support for a proposal that would have advanced the delayed Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline and given the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission more power to approve proposed transmission projects. Other proposals are being developed and Politico reports Democrats may make the issue a priority.
Joe Manchin erupts at Biden over coal comments - Sen. Joe Manchin on Saturday slammed President Joe Biden after he called for coal plants across the US to be shuttered, saying Biden’s remarks are “outrageous and divorced from reality” and suggesting it’s “time he learn a lesson.” Biden, while speaking at a stop in Carlsbad, California, on Friday about the CHIPS and Science Act, said, “We’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar also providing tax credit to help families buy energy-efficient appliances.” Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat who has longtime ties to the coal industry, seized on the comments in a statement on Saturday, calling them “not only outrageous and divorced from reality, they ignore the severe economic pain the American people are feeling because of rising energy costs.” “Comments like these are the reason the American people are losing trust in President Biden and instead believes he does not understand the need to have an all in energy policy that would keep our nation totally energy independent and secure. It seems his positions change depending on the audience and the politics of the day. Politicizing our nation’s energy policies would only bring higher prices and more pain for the American people,” Manchin continued. It’s not unusual for Manchin, a moderate Democrat who has refused to say whether he thinks Biden deserves a second term in office, to criticize Biden’s agenda, and his reluctance at times to support Democratic initiatives has prevented the President from achieving some legislative goals. But Saturday’s statement is an extraordinary rebuke by a sitting US senator of his party’s leader, and serves to illustrate the ongoing tension between the centrist and more progressive wings of the Democratic Party. Manchin, a senator from a deep-red state who is up for reelection in 2024, further sought to distance himself from Biden in his statement when he said, “Let me be clear, this is something the President has never said to me.” “Being cavalier about the loss of coal jobs for men and women in West Virginia and across the country who literally put their lives on the line to help build and power this country is offensive and disgusting. The President owes these incredible workers an immediate and public apology and it is time he learn a lesson that his words matter and have consequences,” Manchin concluded.
How North Dakota's Coal Country turns out to be a good fit for helping make electric vehicle batteries - — The North Dakota coal industry might seem like an improbable partner for the industry that makes materials for batteries for the rapidly growing electric vehicle market. But that odd-couple marriage of a legacy fossil fuels industry and the emerging sector of low carbon-emission electric vehicles helps explain whyTalon Metals chose a site in Mercer County in North Dakota Coal Country for a processing plant to make battery materials.One of the key reasons the site in Mercer County emerged at the top of the list was its ready access to tons of fly ash residue produced when coal is burned to generate electricity.North Dakota’s coal-burning power plants produce more than 3 million tons per year of fly ash, which is commonly used in making cement but otherwise must be properly disposed of, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.For instance, the former Coal Creek Station, now called Rainbow Energy Center, produces more than 500,000 tons of fly ash per year, much of which is used by ready-mix companies around the state to make concrete for paving roads and other uses.It turns out that the same attributes that make coal ash valuable for making concrete — its fine particles make the concrete denser, improving workability, strength and durability — also make it valuable in disposing of waste created by processing nickel ore for use in batteries, said Todd Malan, chief of external affairs and head of climate strategy for Talon Metals, which is based in Toronto.Mixing the coal ash with nickel sulfide waste helps neutralize the waste pollution, hardening it much like concrete, making it more environmentally safe, he told The Forum Editorial Board.Water waste from processing will evaporate, and the residue, mixed with fly ash, will meet state and federal environmental standards, Malan said.Another advantage of the Mercer County site is that it is located on an existing “brownfield” industrial site. Talon hasn’t yet disclosed the site, which is under negotiations. Pending state and federal regulatory approvals, the company hopes to begin construction on the plant next year.Talon Metals will take ore from the Tamarack mine in Aitkin County, Minnesota, west of Duluth, and ship it by rail to the site in Mercer County, where Talon will build a $433 million processing plant that will employ 150 workers.Many of the plant’s workers will earn $100,000 to $125,000 per year, plus benefits, Malan said. Many of the positions will be “pretty technical” and will be “high-quality, career-type jobs,” he said. Talon Metals has a contract to supply Tesla, a leading manufacturer of electric vehicles, with materials for batteries. Ore from its mines has high concentrations of nickel, copper and cobalt. Because of North Dakota’s availability of coal ash and its welcoming business environment, Talon Metals believes Tesla could find attractive opportunities in the state.
N.D. ‘cleanest crypto’ claim ignores state’s fossil fuel-powered grid -North Dakota officials are marketing the state as a destination for cryptocurrency companies that want to clean up the industry’s image as a wasteful climate polluter, touting the state as a home for the “cleanest crypto on the planet.”But energy experts say without specific commitments by companies to power data centers with new wind and solar farms, cryptocurrency mining in North Dakota is likely to run on an energy mix that is dirtier than the national average.“Claiming that you’re cleaner because you are in North Dakota is not really true, because the national electricity mix is actually much cleaner than North Dakota’s electricity mix,” said Ric O’Connell, executive director for GridLab, a nonprofit energy policy consulting group based in Berkeley, California.At a bitcoin conference last spring in Miami, North Dakota officials promoted the state’s energy mix as a top selling point for building cryptocurrency facilities in the state, along with its low taxes, minimal regulation, and relatively cooler climate, which could lessen the power load required to keep computer hardware from overheating during parts of the year.Cryptocurrency “mines” are specialized data centers set up to run complex algorithms that mint new digital tokens. The industry has rapidly grown into one of the most energy-intensive in the world — an estimated 150 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, more than the entire country of Argentina, according to a University of Cambridge study.At least three cryptocurrency companies have cited North Dakota’s energy resources in recent project announcements:
- In January, Atlas Power Data Center CEO Kevin Washington said in a news releasethat building its largest-ever project near Williston would allow it to “draw on a diversified mix of alternative power sources.”
- Applied Blockchain touted its proximity to “significant wind power capacity” last month in an announcement for a new cryptocurrency mine in Ellendale. In an interview, CEO Wes Cummins said the state’s “excess of power” was a factor that helped draw the Texas company to North Dakota.
- Bitzero Blockchain, which describes itself as a developer of “100% renewable zero carbon displacement” data centers, said in June that it is working with the Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara Nation to purchase hydropower for several facilities under development in North Dakota.
“Bitzero’s decision to locate its North American headquarters in North Dakota is yet another example of how our state is emerging as the location of choice for clean energy data centers supported by reliable, affordable electricity produced with environmental stewardship,” Gov. Doug Burgum said in an announcement.North Dakota is among the nation’s largest producers of wind power, with about 4,300 megawatts of installed capacity as of the start of 2022. Wind power accounts for about a third of the generation on the region’s electric grid — almost four times the national average, according to the U.S. EPA.
PNM customers continue to pay for San Juan coal plant that’s no longer operating - - In the two months since the San Juan Generating Station shut down in New Mexico, the region’s customers have been paying the same rate for a facility that’s no longer giving them energy. And they could keep doing so for years following a decision by the New Mexico Supreme Court last week. The Public Service Company of New Mexico’s San Juan plant near Farmington, N.M., completely shut down in late September 2022 as part of the state’s Energy Transition Act. PNM officials said originally they would decrease customers’ rates as a result, but after the company changed its mind, the state ordered PNM to issue credits to make up for money people should’ve saved but didn’t. But PNM gave out nearly none of those credits. Instead, lawyers turned to the state Supreme Court to waive those state-ordered refunds. On Nov. 1, the Supreme Court said the utility doesn’t have to issue credits for now — at least until the court comes to a conclusion at the end of the appeal process. As part of the intended San Juan plant closure, the state’s Public Regulation Commission approved a plan where PNM, in 2022, would decrease customer rates and also sell bonds to recover investments made in the old coal facility. Customers would pay back bonds in the form of low-interest rates over 25 years, which would still be cheaper than paying for the inoperative generating station. However, a legal battle ensued in early 2022 when PNM switched its bond plans. The utility said bonds would instead be sold in 2024, and ratepayers would continue the same payments as before the shutdown until then. “I feel badly for the PNM ratepayers continuing to pay for operating two units at San Juan Generating Station that are no longer operating,” PRC Commissioner Joseph Maestas said at a meeting last week. PNM spokesperson Ray Sandoval said the utility always planned to issue the bonds when new customer rates go into effect. Although the utility had planned to have new rates ready around the time of the closure, he said, the pandemic delayed the schedule. Therefore it doesn’t make sense to change rates and issue bonds until the utility’s financial situation can be reviewed as it currently stands, Sandoval said, which is now planned for early December, and would go into effect in 2024. That’s the up-to-date monetary information the PRC should be considering for how much customers should be paying, he added.
DOE touts nuclear-powered hydrogen production projects with Xcel, Constellation, 4 other partners - The U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday highlighted plans to fund projects at four nuclear plants to demonstrate the clean production of hydrogen.Developing a robust and cost-efficient hydrogen market is seen by the utility sector and others as key to meeting goals for zero carbon emissions by 2050. Partners include Constellation Energy, Energy Harbor, Bloom Energy, Xcel Energy and Arizona Public Service. DOE estimates that a single 1,000-megawatt nuclear reactor could produce up to 150,000 tons of hydrogen each year. That hydrogen could be used in fuel cells to produce electricity, but the production process everywhere is costly and yet to be demonstrated at scale. DOE and the power sector anticipate that hydrogen could displace natural gas as the nation attempts to transition to 100% clean energy by 2050. Hydrogen also can be used in industrial processes or as a transportation fuel for fuel-cell vehicles and airplanes. The demonstration projects are part of a $7 billion program DOE announced in September to help lower the cost and scale-up the production of clean hydrogen. The plan calls for the creation of six to 10 regional hydrogen hubs to produce, store and distribute hydrogen. At least one of the hubs will be focused on clean hydrogen production using nuclear energy, DOE said. Currently, about 95% of the hydrogen produced in the U.S. comes from natural gas, resulting in carbon emissions along with hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Emissions-free hydrogen can be produced through low- and high-temperature electrolysis by splitting water into pure hydrogen and oxygen using high-temperature electrolyzers. Reactors, with their constant heat and electricity production, are deemed by DOE to be ideal facilities for creating a new hydrogen market.
Ascent Resources Utica Holdings, LLC reports third quarter operating results - Third Quarter Highlights:
- Averaged net production of over 2.3 bcfe per day
- Realized record Adjusted EBITDAX(1) of $559 million and Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities of $761 million
- Incurred $195 million of D&C costs and $24 million of land and leasehold costs
- Generated $277 million of Adjusted Free Cash Flow(1)
- Reduced total borrowings under our credit facility by $55 million even with funding the remaining portion of the XTO acquisition
- Achieved our long-term leverage target of less than 2.0x, ending the quarter at 1.7x on an LTM basis(2)
Ascent Resources 3Q – Production Up 18%, Adds Extra Frac Crew | Marcellus Drilling News -Ascent Resources, originally founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately-held company that focuses 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer (352,000 leased acres) and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. The company issued its third quarter update yesterday. Ascent averaged production of 2.34 Bcfe/d for the quarter, up significantly from the 1.98 Bcfe/d it averaged in 3Q21 (18% increase). Production was also up from the 1.97 Bcfe/d produced last quarter, 2Q22 (19% increase). Nearly all of Ascent’s production (94%) was natural gas, while the rest was oil and NGLs.
EOG Expands into Utica Shale, Touts Global Natural Gas, Oil Pricing Exposure - EOG Resources Inc. expects the Utica Shale in Appalachia “to be its next large-scale premium resource play” following the acquisition of 395,000 net acres and 135,000 mineral acres for a combined cost of less than $500 million, management said. The Houston-based exploration and production firm unveiled the acquisition alongside its third quarter earnings. The acreage spans a 140-mile trend targeting oil and both wet and dry natural gas in the Utica, management said. “EOG is now operating seven significant resource basins with the addition of the Utica Combo in Ohio,” said CEO Ezra Yacob. “Our growing multi-basin portfolio of high-return plays positions EOG for long-term sustainable value creation.” EOG’s vast Lower 48 footprint includes operations in the Permian, Williston, Powder River, Denver-Julesburg, and Anadarko basins, along with the Eagle Ford and Barnett shale formations, among other areas. Yacob said EOG’s multi-basin approach “provides flexibility to allocate capital to the highest return projects across a diverse and improving inventory of future well locations. Operating in multiple basins also fosters innovation through diverse, high-performing teams creating new ideas at the field level that are then shared across our operations.” The company said the Utica offers a “favorable drilling environment,” and that it plans to develop the play with three-mile laterals to support cost efficiencies. “Combined with strong liquids production rates, EOG expects the Utica Combo to be additive to the overall quality of its premium inventory,” the company said. “Development of this high rate-of-return play is underway with about 20 wells projected for 2023.” EOG’s realized oil and natural gas prices “beat their target benchmarks in the third quarter,” said Helms. “Our marketing teams are doing an excellent job, executing our long-term strategy of diversifying across multiple transportation outlets and sales points. This strategy is also enabling the company to navigate the recent bottlenecks transporting natural gas out of the Permian.” Helms said less than 5% of EOG’s domestic gas output is exposed to the Waha hub in West Texas, where prices briefly flipped negative in late October amid takeaway constraints. “In fact, we anticipate fourth quarter realized prices to remain strong for both natural gas and crude oil sales overall. Our crude oil and natural gas export capacity is serving us well in this regard.”For the fourth quarter of 2022, EOG expects to sell over 250,000 b/d of oil at Brent-linked prices and 140 MMcf/d of natural gas linked to the Asian benchmark Japan-Korea Marker.
Utica Shale Academy obtains Salineville beautification grant - - The Utica Shale Academy has gained grant funding which officials plan to use for beautifying Salineville.Instructor Matt Gates, who teaches horticulture, welding and industrial maintenance, obtained a $660 Best Practice Grant through the Jefferson County Educational Service Center and will put the funding to use for his “Park Waterfall Pond” project in the village. The grant will help purchase a pond form, pump, pump filter, waterfall rock and small rocks to construct a pond near the USA site on East Main Street and students will exhibit the skills they’ve learned with hand tools and heavy equipment to install the project. Officials said plans should get underway soon.Gates said the pupils will operate a backhoe to dig the hole and place the liner for the pond, plus they will learn the importance of work and values while incorporating teamwork into the project. He said these learned skills will help them be successful throughout their life and career.“The project will benefit 25 students,” Gates added. “I have not applied for or received the Best Practice Grant before. I’m really excited to be chosen for the grant, and this gives us an extra opportunity to do a great project with the students while enhancing the community.” JCESC Superintendent Dr. Chuck Kokiko said the grants help support education and engage students in unique learning opportunities.
John Fetterman Embraces Controversial Fracking in Final Bid to Beat Dr. Oz -- Democratic Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman said multiple times during an appearance Friday on ABC's The View that he supports fracking. Fetterman, who is running against Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in the neck-and-neck Senate race, has made past statements inconsistent with his current stance on fracking—drilling for oil and natural gas—of which environmentalists and many Pennsylvanians disapprove. He was not in the studio and appeared on the program via video feed. "Any of the issues that I ever had with fracking is really around environmental regulations and once those were passed and they were addressed...you know, I support fracking," Fetterman said in response to a question by Alyssa Farah Griffin. "I absolutely support energy independence and making sure that we can never be held by a country like Russia and making sure that we produce as much American energy as possible, and I fully support fracking." In a follow-up question by Joy Behar about whether he also supports green energy, Fetterman replied, "Without a doubt."
Lawsuit by Washington County homeowner says fracking caused "forever chemicals" to contaminate his drinking water “It doesn't take a lot of PFAS in your body to cause harm. And the harm that PFAS causes is pretty extensive," said a pediatrician and anti-fracking group leader. — A Washington County family is accusing gas drillers of causing so-called “forever chemicals” to get into his drinking water. The chemicals, known as PFAS, have been used in clothing, carpet and food packaging. Bryan Latkanich agreed to allow gas drilling on his property a decade ago, and he received royalties. But shortly after the drilling got underway, he said he started having health problems. “I couldn’t sleep. I had intestinal problems. I was puking,” Latkanich said. He said he was alarmed to see what happened to his young son, Ryan, after taking a bath. “This kid's covered with blisters and sores, so I jumped in the tub and felt the water and it was probably the most slippery substance I've ever felt in my life, so I said well we've got a problem,” Latkanich said. Chevron, the drilling company, gave the Latkanich family water buffalos and did an investigation. The investigation found the groundwater "consistent with pre-existing conditions" and "not the result of oil and gas operations." But Latkanich said he and his son never had health problems before fracking started. “How does my son get burned from just water if there's no real problem?” he said. Latkanich started filling water jugs at a nearby spring for drinking and bathing. Earlier this year, a team from the University of Pittsburgh tested the water at the Latkanich house and found alarming results. According to a lawsuit filed by Latkanich, the water contained high amounts of PFAS chemicals that were 280 times the EPA standard for one form of the chemical called PFOA and 379 times the EPA standard for PFOS. The tests also found Ryan had high levels of other chemicals associated with fracking, including benzene and toluene. Pitt's lead researcher declined to do an interview because of the pending lawsuit.
In Fracking’s 'Ground Zero,' Pennsylvania Residents Feel Left Behind --Ray Kemble, 30-year resident of Dimock, in the northeastern corner of Pennsylvania, still rations his water use. You may know Kemble’s community from the award-winning film Gasland, the documentary that helped thrust the 1,300-person township into the spotlight in 2010, turning it into a“ground zero” in the debate over fracking after images of brown water went viral alongside videos of residents in other parts of the state lighting their tap water on fire. Kemble has spent the last 14 years engaged in community education around fracking, the method of natural gas extraction that involves shooting drilling fluid thousands of feet underground, carving an L-shaped path beneath the earth that risks polluting groundwater and even causing earthquakes. And despite all the attention focused on the issue and his town, Kemble says the well water that feeds his home in Susquehanna County is still not potable. So, he trucks 24 miles roundtrip out to a hydrant outside of town to manually fill up two 500-gallon water tanks that have sat in his basement for years. He uses the water from these tanks, colloquially known as “water buffaloes,” to shower, wash dishes and do laundry; he runs drinking water through an additional filter that sits next to his sink. When the tanks are near half-full, he trucks back out to the hydrant again and refills them — a process that takes a few hours in all — keeping a watchful eye on his consumption.This routine is not convenient, but it’s one he’s adopted out of necessity: More than 10 years ago, natural gas drilling by Cabot Oil & Gas polluted private water wells across his town in one of the most famous cases of environmental contamination in recent history. On June 15, 2020, the culmination of a grand jury investigation by Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, now running for governor as a Democrat, offered the promise of some relief. Shapiro’s officecharged Coterra, then named Cabot, with 15 environmental crimes in northeastern Pennsylvania. “Cabot took shortcuts that broke the law, and damaged our environment — harming our water supply and public health,” Shapiro said at the time. Fracking has been linked to cancers, preterm birth and respiratory, cardiovascular and nervous system damage. In Dimock, residents experienced nausea and skin rashes, difficulty breathing and dizziness; well water there was found to contain methane, ethane, propane and sodium, according to a grand jury presentment. Dr. Zacariah Hildenbrand, professor in the Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry at the University of Texas at El Paso, took around 20 samples of Dimock well water in service of the AG investigation, and confirmed to Capital & Main that some residents’ water remains contaminated today. “We are in the first stages of a long process to hold the well-connected accountable and meet the promise of our Constitution to protect our environment for generations to come,” Shapiro said at the time.That process has taken much longer than residents hope, trying the patience of Kemble and some of his neighbors, who fear that Shapiro and his team of prosecutors are dragging their feet, all while regulators continue to grant the company permits to drill elsewhere and residents still lack easy access to clean water. And, as a contentious gubernatorial election nears, pitting Shapiro against a pro-drilling Republican opponent, Kemble’s faith in an outcome has dwindled. “Here we are, two and a half years later,” Kemble says. “They’ve never even stepped in the courtroom.”
43 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Oct 31-Nov 6 | Marcellus Drilling News - New shale permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica came roaring back during the week of Oct. 31 through Nov. 6. Both Pennsylvania and Ohio issued 13 new permits during that week. But West Virginia issued a whopping 17 new permits! The prior week WV issued only a single new permit. Antero Resources, Bradford County, Carroll County, Chesapeake Energy,Columbiana County, Encino Energy, Energy Companies, EQT Corp, Hilcorp Energy, Marshall County, Ohio County, Range Resources Corp, Southwestern Energy, Tyler County, Washington County, Wetzel County
Pennsylvania's Planned Blue Hydrogen Hub Driving Mid-Atlantic Energy Transition -- Zero emissions transportation-centered Nikola Corp. is partnering with Keystate Natural Gas Synthesis LLC to bring what may be Pennsylvania’s first blue hydrogen and chemicals production facility. KeyState’s planned 7,000-acre production facility is to feature commercial-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) for a blue hydrogen, ammonia and urea production facility. Nikola and KeyState are in the works on a definitive agreement to expand the hydrogen supply for Nikola’s heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV).“Nikola’s participation in the project will allow us to secure sufficient volumes of hydrogen to underpin and accelerate the adoption of zero-emission trucks by unlocking new customer demand and enabling key investments in downstream hydrogen refueling infrastructure in the Mid-Atlantic region,” said Nikola President Carey Mendes. According to Nikola, KeyState may supply the Phoenix-based clean transportation company with up to 100 metric tons (mt) daily of blue hydrogen. This has the potential to fuel about 2,500 Nikola Tre FCEVs, displacing more than 51 million gallons/year of diesel fuel based on U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates.“This will be key to our supply strategy and will help develop our refueling network at scale. Additionally, the low-carbon, clean hydrogen will allow us to maximize value under the Inflation Reduction Act and future downstream fuel and dispensing incentive programs,” Mendes added. The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law earlier this year by President Biden, allocated $3 billion through 2028 to fund developments in “advanced technology vehicles” that emit little to no greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the act earmarked an additional $2 billion through 2031 for the production of hybrid, plug-in electric hybrid, electric vehicles and FCEVs. Nikola and KeyState also noted their intention to support an application as a principal project under DOE’s $8 billion Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubfunding program established in 2021 under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. What’s more, Nikola and KeyState said they are working to develop a liquefaction solution to support a hydrogen distribution project from KeyState to Nikola’s planned refueling center currently under development. KeyState Natural Gas Synthesis is a joint venture (JV) with Keystate LLC acting as project developer and Frontier Natural Resources Inc. providing natural gas and geological storage. The Oil and Gas Climate Initiative Climate Investments, a CEO-led oil and gas consortium, has also partnered on the JV. KeyState estimates it could produce up to 30 million kilograms/year of zero-emissions transportation fuel, aka KeyState H2Blue. This potentially could avert up to 320,000 mt annually of carbon dioxide and 27 million gallons of diesel fuel, according to the JV. Including the diesel exhaust treatment that KeyState also plans to produce from its urea and ammonia, the project could displace u p to nine billion gallons of diesel, according to KeyState.
Mega Rule Puts All Gas-Gathering Pipelines Under Federal Scrutiny --For decades, gas-gathering pipelines located in rural areas largely escaped the federal scrutiny that was primarily focused on transmission pipelines. But all that has changed with final publication of the so-called Mega Rule, which applies federal pipeline safety regulations to hundreds of thousands of miles of gas-gathering pipelines — previously not subject to federal safety regulation — for the first time. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the history behind the three-part Mega Rule, what it’s designed to do, and the challenges pipeline operators will face to stay in compliance. Discussions about ways to improve natural gas pipeline safety go back many years but gained greater prominence after a deadly explosion in San Bruno, CA, in September 2010. In that incident, a 30-inch-diameter segment of a state-regulated intrastate natural gas transmission pipeline owned and operated by Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) ruptured in a residential area of San Bruno, a city just south of San Francisco. The released natural gas ignited, resulting in a fire that destroyed 38 homes and damaged 70 others. Eight people were killed and several dozen injured. According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the explosion was caused by deficiencies in quality assurance and quality control during the pipe’s installation as well as an inadequate pipeline-integrity program that failed to detect the defective section of pipeline. California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) exemptions related to pressure testing for existing pipelines, which likely would have detected the installation defects, were also cited as a factor, as was the CPUC’s failure to notice and address the inadequacies of PG&E’s pipeline-integrity program. In response to the San Bruno incident and others, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) issued an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANOPR) related to pipeline safety in August 2011. An ANOPR is a formal invitation for the public to participate in shaping a proposed rule and sets the notice-and-comment process in motion. The agency then published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NOPR) in April 2016 based on comments received in response to the previous notice. The NOPR is the official document that announces and explains the agency’s plan to address a problem or accomplish a goal. PHMSA then determined that, given the number of comments received and the extent of the proposed changes, the rulemaking — informally referred to as the Mega Rule (presumably because of its all-encompassing nature) — should be split into three parts. In 2019, the agency issued Part 1, which addressed post-San Bruno congressional mandates and safety recommendations of the NTSB related to natural gas transmission. The agency issued Part 2 in 2021 — it significantly expanded the scope of safety and reporting requirements for more than 400,000 miles of gas-gathering lines in rural, Class 1 areas, now categorized as Type C pipelines, as detailed in Figure 1 above. (Class 1 areas have 10 or fewer buildings intended for occupancy near the pipeline, Class 2 areas have 10-45 buildings nearby, Class 3 areas have 46 or more buildings nearby or are within 100 yards of an area occupied by 20 or more people, and Class 4 areas have buildings four or more stories above ground.) Gathering pipelines typically transport gas from the production well to a gas processing plant, a treating facility, and/or a gas transmission pipeline. Volumes shipped on gathering lines, as well as operating pressures, have gone up dramatically since the start of the Shale Revolution. Although some states imposed safety regulations on these systems, there was not any nationally uniform standard. The rule also designated a new category, Type R, for all other onshore gathering line operations and made them subject to PHMSA’s annual reporting requirements. The final section of the rule, Part 3, which PHMSA issued in August, adopted changes to the gas transmission IM process, changes to the management-of-change (MOC) process, enhanced corrosion-control requirements, strengthened pipeline assessment methods and repair requirements, and safety inspections after disasters and extreme-weather events.
Gas producers using Cop27 to rebrand gas as transitional fuel, experts warn -Gas producers and their financial backers see Cop27 as an opportunity for discussions about rebranding natural gas as a transition fuel rather than a fossil fuel, experts have said. The push is coming from the host Egypt and its gas-producing allies amid a global energy crisis compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “The opportunity for this Cop is to have the discussion openly that natural gas, and in particular when combined with carbon capture, is a scalable energy solution allowing us to meet the needs of 8 billion people while still meeting our climate goals,” said Craig Golinowski, of Carbon Infrastructure Partners, a Canadian private equity fund backing projects related to fossil fuels as well as carbon capture. Environmental experts caution that burning gas, a fossil fuel, risks increasing warming far beyond the target restriction of 1.5C required to prevent major environmental disruption. Gas is less polluting to the climate than coal, but its production involves harmful methane, and leaks from infrastructure can cause large-scale pollution. In addition, experts such as the Washington DC-based Environmental Working Group warn that carbon capture risks delaying the essential transition away from fossil fuels, calling it a licence for the fossil fuel industry to keep polluting. “Natural gas is really the only proven way to lower emissions at scale. If we don’t have enough energy, we get more emissions,” Golinowski said, suggesting a theory that a shortage of natural gas automatically involves increasing usage of coal rather than renewable energy sources, as many advocate. “I think the binary framing of oil and gas as bad, wind and solar as good is really a disaster,” he added. Golinowski is not planning to attend Cop27 but will be keeping a close eye on the discussions. In particular, he said he would rely on members of the German natural gas industry and their lobbyists to advocate “for a larger global gas market”, as Germany represents the centre of a European energy crisis sparked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. In the year since Cop26 in Glasgow, which included the launch of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, intended to “deliver a managed and just transition away from oil and gas production”, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Moscow’s decision to halt natural gas supplies to Europe have prompted a marked shift in global attitudes towards natural gas, laying the ground for discussions at Cop27 between world leaders and gas producers about whether gas should be viewed as a transition fuel and not a fossil fuel. “I think what we see right now, because of Russia, is that we are still going to need gas for some or whole part of this transition – no one’s naive enough to think you can turn off all gas usage tomorrow and we’re going to be fine,” said Nazmeera Moola, the chief sustainability officer at the South African investment firm Ninety One. “Then you add in the high price of gas at the moment, and it certainly starts to look attractive.” Moola said the hunt to replace Russia’s vast gas supply to Europe was likely to influence discussions about exploring new gas reserves across Africa, despite calls to resist this in favour of meeting emissions targets, calling this shift “a new view” on exploiting African gas reserves. Asked whether this would influence discussions between the major gas producers, policymakers and diplomats gathered at Cop27, she said: “Will that conversation happen inside meetings? Sure.”
White House wants lame-duck permitting bill - Among the items on President Joe Biden’s lame-duck wish list: a permitting reform effort backed by West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. Biden hopes that Congress will advance Manchin’s effort to streamline permitting as part of a pending defense authorization package during the upcoming lame-duck session, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Thursday. The White House and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) have supported Manchin’s effort after Manchin agreed to vote for the Inflation Reduction Act — a massive climate, energy and health care bill, in exchange for Democratic leaders’ pledge to pursue permitting reform. The president is expected to tout the Inflation Reduction Act and other climate policies at the COP 27 climate conference in Egypt and during other international meetings. “The president heads to COP 27 with historic momentum on climate, thanks to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and other significant steps that put us on an enduring path towards meeting our ambitions and clean energy goals,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters Thursday. Biden will “speak to his personal commitment to addressing the climate crisis,” and highlight U.S. climate policies,” Sullivan said. The president will also “underscore the need to go further, faster to help the most vulnerable communities build their resilience, without losing sight of the need for the world — and particularly for the major economies — to cut emissions drastically in this decisive decade.” The president will be in Cambodia on Sunday and Indonesia on Monday for meetings with world leaders. He’s slated to attend the annual G-20 summit in Indonesia next week, where energy will be on his agenda.
Manchin FERC shake-up may stymie Biden’s clean energy plans - - The prospect of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chair Richard Glick losing his job by year’s end could derail policies critical for President Joe Biden’s clean energy and climate agenda.Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin is “not comfortable” holding a hearing for Glick, Manchin spokesperson Sam Runyon said Thursday, effectively killing the chairman’s chances of staying on the regulatory panel (Greenwire, Nov. 10).Glick, a Democrat who joined FERC in 2017, had been nominated by Biden to lead the agency for another four years, pending approval by the Senate. His departure would mean that Democrats lose their majority on the five-person commission.Glick has advanced a slew of regulatory changes seen as key for adding more solar, wind and batteries to the nation’s power grid. But his efforts to establish a more climate-focused process for reviewing natural gas pipeline projects had been criticized by Republicans and Manchin, a moderate Democrat from natural gas-rich West Virginia.“It’s disappointing,” said Gregory Wetstone, CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy. “Certainly our hope is that Chairman Manchin will reconsider.”While Glick’s term at FERC expired in June, he is allowed by law to stay at the helm of the commission through the end of this year. In an interview, he said he had spoken to Manchin’s team Wednesday evening and was told “nothing different” from what has been reported already.“We’ll see what happens,” Glick said. “I worry about the things I can control. The things I can’t control, I don’t worry about.”FERC’s authority extends across much of the energy sector. The commission oversees the reliable operation of the bulk power system, permits large natural gas pipelines, and monitors and investigates energy markets, among other roles. Glick’s departure would leave FERC with two Democratic and two Republican commissioners. Although many of FERC’s decisions have bipartisan support, the dynamic could make it harder for the commissioners to advance certain policies and orders affecting transmission, clean energy, pipelines and energy markets.
Dominion Is Said to Mull Sale of Stake in Cove Point LNG Plant
- Facility on Chesapeake Bay includes terminal, storage
- Dominion is initiating a ‘top-to-bottom’ business review
Dominion Energy Inc., a utility weighing asset sales after its shares slumped this year, is exploring the divestment of its multi-billion-dollar stake in the Cove Point LNG facility on the Chesapeake Bay, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Richmond, Virginia-based company is working with advisers to solicit interest from potential suitors including infrastructure funds, said the people, who requested anonymity as the effort isn’t public. Talks are at an early stage, and Dominion could still decide to hold onto the 50% stake, the people said. A representative for Dominion declined to comment.
US NatGas Futures Jump As Frigid Weather Set To Swoop Across Country - US natural gas futures bottomed on Oct. 24 after a 50% haircut on warmer weather. In the last two weeks, prices have staged a rally on the prospect of cold weather and tighter supplies. Last Monday, we penned a note titled "US NatGas Spikes As Temperatures Are About To Dive Nationwide." Now, with colder weather sweeping across the US, NatGas prices are up a staggering 49% in eleven sessions. On Monday morning alone, NatGas futures are up 10%. Bloomberg said the move higher is weather-related, "as a winter storm hits the Pacific Northwest and frigid weather is expected across most of the country." National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a 6-10 day temperature outlook for the lower 48 states showing that most of the country will experience below-average temperatures. An 8-14 day temperature outlook by the weather agency also points to continued below-average temperatures for much of the US. After an unseasonably warm end of October and the first week of November, the warm spell is forecasted to turn today. Average temperatures are expected around 58 degrees Fahrenheit and will revert to a downward sloping 30-year mean of the mid-40s by mid-month. Colder weather indicates heating demand will rise, and so will the demand for NatGas. The latest rally in NatGas outlines how sensitive traders are to potential cold snaps, as below-normal stockpiles and surging exports could strain domestic stockpiles in a deep freeze in the months ahead.
Forecasted Freeze Sends Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Soaring - - Natural gas futures flew higher on Monday, bolstered by forecasts for substantially colder weather and stronger heating demand. The December Nymex contract gained 54.4 cents day/day to settle at $6.944/MMBtu, adding to a 42.5 cent rally in Friday’s session. January climbed 49.0 cents to $7.244. While volatile in recent trading, the prompt month hit a three-week high on Monday. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. followed suit, spiking $1.570 to $4.180 to start the week. Weather data trended much chillier over the weekend, including a “hefty” addition of 23 heating degree days from the European model, according to NatGasWeather. The American model, too, added “a significant amount of demand” for this Saturday through Nov. 18, with lows in the teens to 30s “advancing more aggressively into the southern and eastern U.S. than what the data showed Friday,” the firm said. “The weather data was also a little colder with the pattern Nov. 19-23, although still with cold air fading toward a more seasonal demand pattern,” NatGasWeather added. EBW Analytics Group’s Eli Rubin, senior analyst, said Monday this fall “featured the loosest recorded autumn natural gas supply/demand balance,” and enabled utilities to inject an average of 101 Bcf per week for the past eight weeks. This eliminated 219 Bcf from storage deficits versus the five-year average. Futures prices were down more than 40% at one point during the shoulder season, he noted. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an injection of 107 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended Oct. 28. The result more than doubled the prior five-year average of 45 Bcf and marked the sixth time in seven weeks that EIA printed a triple-digit increase. Analysts are looking for another stout increase with this Thursday’s inventory report. Early estimates for the week ended Nov. 4 submitted to Reuters ranged from injections of 65 Bcf to 105 Bcf, with an average increase of 81 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average build of 20 Bcf. One more big storage increase could follow, given a mild weather start to the current week. What’s more, the 14th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was swirling southeast of the United States on Monday. Subtropical Storm Nicole, as it was dubbed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), was forecast to gradually strengthen and organize into a full tropical storm before powering over the northern Bahamas and toward the eastern coast of Florida around midweek. NHC meteorologists said Monday the storm could be “at or near” hurricane strength when it batters the east coast of Florida Wednesday into Thursday.
U.S. natgas futures drop 12% on forecasts for less cold weather (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 12% on Tuesday in what has already been an extremely volatile couple of weeks on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand through late November than previously expected. Analysts said the market was also focused on unproven rumors that the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas may not return in November. "There was some ambiguous information and rhetoric in the market that the Freeport LNG export terminal could postpone its restart until late November or even early December," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates said in a note. Freeport LNG, however, has said repeatedly that it still expects the 2.1 billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in November following an unexpected shutdown on June 8 caused by a pipeline explosion. Freeport LNG submitted a draft Root Cause Failure Analysis to the Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) on Nov. 1, according to sources familiar with the filing. The next step is for Freeport LNG to submit a request to resume service. Several vessels were waiting to pick up LNG from Freeport, according to Refinitiv data. Prism Brilliance, Prism Diversity and Prism Courage were offshore from the plant, while LNG Rosenrot and Prism Agility were expected to arrive in late November. Futures were also under pressure due to what will likely be federal reports showing much bigger-than-usual gas storage builds this week and next, and expectations that Subtropical Storm Nicole will strengthen into a hurricane before hitting the East Coast of Florida late Wednesday or early Thursday before moving onto Georgia and the Carolinas on Friday. Those big inventory builds could boost gas stockpiles to near- or even above-normal levels for the first time since January 2022. As for Nicole, traders said storms usually cause power outages that reduce demand for gas-fired generation. Front-month gas futures fell 80.6 cents, or 11.6%, to settle at $6.138 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That was the biggest one-day percentage drop since June 30 when it fell by about 16%. On Monday, the contract gained about 9% to settle at its highest since Oct. 6. The premium of futures for January over December NGZ22-F23, meanwhile, was on track to close at a record high of 44 cents per mmBtu as some in the market started to give up on the prospect of extreme cold in December. Overall, gas futures are up about 67% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $34 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $27 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia.
Natural Gas Futures in Freefall Ahead of Hurricane Threat - Natural gas futures fell for a second consecutive session Wednesday as a powerful storm approached the Southeast, threatening power outages, while traders braced for another plump storage increase and the delayed return of a key export facility. Coming off an 80.6-cent slump Tuesday, the December Nymex gas futures contract shed 27.3 cents day/day to settle at $5.865/MMBtu on Wednesday. January fell 29.9 cents to $6.225. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. lost 14.5 cents to $3.785. Looming cold fronts and flat production this week around 99 Bcf/d favored bulls, NatGasWeather noted, with forecasts Wednesday showing a substantial shift toward wintry weather beginning this weekend and extending through the middle of November. However, Tropical Storm Nicole was racing toward Florida during trading Wednesday, and it packed powerful enough winds to galvanize emergency declarations and forecasts for lost power and substantially diminished near-term gas demand through the current trading week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expected Nicole would strengthen into a hurricane before reaching Florida’s east coast Wednesday night. “Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday and Friday night,” the NHC said. Meanwhile, the return to service of the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas, slated for this month, remained in question Wednesday. After a protracted outage dating to a June fire, the Texas liquefied natural gas export facility had yet to confirm the status of needed regulatory approvals to reopen. When it does return, Freeport could pull about 2.0 Bcf/d of natural gas from domestic circulation to meet export demand. But if that does not happen this month, U.S. demand would prove lighter than expected and supplies could further swell in the near term, adding to price pressure, Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart said. She does not expect Freeport to relaunch until December and, as such, raised expectations for storage to stand at 1,655 Bcf at the end of the coming winter, up from 1,530 Bcf. Analysts at The Schork Report said Numex futures “crashed as doubts of Freeport LNG’s return mount.”
U.S. natgas jumps 6% on smaller-than-expected storage build, cold weather (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumps about 6% on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for heating demand to rise next week when the weather turns much colder. Traders also noted prices were up on a possible increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports if the Freeport LNG plant in Texas starts to return to service. Freeport, however, has not yet submitted a request to resume service to federal safety regulators, sources familiar with the filings told Reuters on Thursday. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Nov. 4. That was smaller than the 84-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 15 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 20 bcf. Analysts said last week's build was bigger than normal because mild weather kept demand for the fuel for heating low. They also noted that big builds last week and expected this week could boost stockpiles to above-normal levels for the first time since January. On Freeport, analysts said the market remained extremely focused on rumors the plant may not return in November since it has not yet filed its return-to-service plan with federal regulators. Demand for gas will rise once the Freeport plant returns. A couple of vessels were waiting to pick up LNG from Freeport, according to Refinitiv data. But one vessel, Prism Brilliance, which had been waiting outside the Freeport plant, is now headed toward Corpus Christi where Cheniere Energy Inc has an LNG export plant, according to Refinitiv data. Traders noted power outages from Hurricane Nicole in Florida, where about 308,000 homes and businesses were without power Thursday morning, reducing the amount of gas electric generators have to burn. That reduction in gas demand helped limit the futures price increase. Front-month gas futures rose 37.4 cents, or 6.4%, to settle at $6.239 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Rapid price changes over the past couple of weeks - futures gained or lost more than 5% on eight of the past 10 days - boosted the contract's 30-day implied volatility index to its highest level since hitting a record in October 2021 for a second day in a row. The market uses implied volatility to estimate likely price changes in the future. Gas futures are up about 67% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $33 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $28 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said that average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has fallen to 98.6 bcfd so far in November, down from a record 99.4 bcfd in October. With the coming of much colder weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 98.3 bcfd this week to 120.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday.
Twitter Spoof Sank Natural Gas Prices -The explosion of corporate impersonators on Twitter sank natural gas prices Friday after tweets circulated that purported to show that restarting a Texas gas-export terminal, shutdown since a June fire, would be further delayed."Freeport LNG has not made an any public statements today regarding the restart of our liquefaction facility," the company said in a statement after markets closed.By then the damage was done. Natural-gas futures sank roughly 9% in late morning trading when the fake update began circulating. Traders penciled out the effect of fewer exports and greater domestic supplies. Prices never really recovered and ended the day down.
Protesters Rally at Gas Summit in Louisiana, Where Industry Eyes a Fossil Fuel Buildout - Black and Indigenous leaders on boats confronted energy executives through the windows of a waterfront casino in Louisiana, where the hydrocarbon sector hopes to capitalize on war in Ukraine.The U.S. today sells more compressed methane gas on international markets than any other country, though the export sector here is barely 6 years old. Fossil fuel industry leaders intend to continue on this soaring trajectory with plans to build a slate of new gas export terminals on the Gulf Coast. More than half of them will be in Louisiana, which ranks second for poverty and fifth for cancer rates among U.S. states. In Louisiana, energy executives and public officials gathered last week at the Golden Nugget Hotel and Casino for a three-day annual conference on the production and export of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). On a waterway behind the casino, a convoy of boats motored past its wide windows with a different vision. From the decks, the activists from across the Gulf coast demanded loudly that the executives leave and abandon their plans to build out the waterfront. “We got community folks together and we said enough is enough, we can’t take anymore,” said Roishetta Ozane, a local organizer with Healthy Gulf, who led the protest effort. “They’re not helping us at all. They’re only polluting our air and water.” The region is oversaturated with toxins, she said. Last month part of a Sasol chemical plant exploded nearby. A Westlake Chemical plant exploded several months before that, and in the year before. They contribute to the chemical fog that already fumes from smokestacks around Lake Charles, which is 48 percent Black. Three export terminals currently operate on the Louisiana coast, including the largest in the nation about 50 miles from Lake Charles. The Calcasieu Pass terminal, some 30 miles from Lake Charles, started operations this year and is still building more. Another seven are proposed, according to the Global Energy Monitor, plus three offshore terminals and two more onshore just across the border in Texas, along a corridor that is already crowded with heavy industry. “The air is almost unbreathable. It’s smelling like rotting eggs. And when it’s not it smells like chlorine,” Ozane said. “If these industries are so important, they need to go find somewhere where there are no people living.”However, industrial growth generally commands popular support in Louisiana, where every county but one supported Republican candidates in Tuesday’s election. Most public officials cheer on the development of an LNG export sector on the coast.
ConocoPhillips Building Global LNG Portfolio as Long-Term Resource in Energy Transition -Management for Houston-based ConocoPhillips during a quarterly earnings call highlighted the independent’s progress as it expanded its LNG activities while achieving record production. CEO Ryan Lance told investors “the world is going to need investments in medium- and long-term production in addition to U.S. shale plays.” ConocoPhillips’ portfolio is “well positioned to meet these long-term supply challenges.”Lance also noted that “a successful energy transition” for the world would require an “all-of-the-above approach,” complete with U.S. unconventional production and liquefied natural gas. “When you look at the transactions that we’ve done over the last couple of years, we have a growing resource position in the U.S., so creating more demand just makes a lot of sense,” Lance said, speaking to the company’s LNG strategy. “…Combined with our views of the energy transition in the view that LNG is going to be a necessary fuel…we think this is something the globe is going to be needing as we go through the energy transition.”Last month, ConocoPhillips became the third company to sign on to a two-train, 16 million metric ton/year (mmty) capacity LNG project at Qatar’s North Field South. ConocoPhillips earlier in the year also signed on to participate in Qatar’s North Field East. In addition, the exploration and production (E&P) independent in August agreed to terminal services for a 15-year period at the prospective Brunsbuettel LNG import terminal in Germany. Domestically, Lance highlighted progress on the Port Arthur LNG partnership with San Diego-based Sempra Infrastructure. Sempra last week said it is targeting a final investment decision for Port Arthur in early 2023. Lance said with a “plentiful” gas resource in the United States, the Port Arthur project is an opportunity for “…creating some of this more demand to exploit the resource in the U.S. is a good thing…We want to be involved in the liquefaction of that resource and the shipping and then the regasification as we move it to higher-value markets around the world.”The project with Sempra gives ConocoPhillips “some optionality also on their…west coast of Mexico opportunity that they have as well,” Lance said. Sempra is working on a potential LNG terminal in Salina Cruz, Oaxaca. The Mexico project “is longer-dated, and that’s an option we have to participate in expansion of that facility that is currently operating there today,” Lance said. “I think they’re converting the regas portion of that into a small liquefaction plant and looking at some expansion opportunities;” however, any participation would be “down the road, if, and when they decide to build another train at that facility.”
Part 3 - Outlook For Permian Gross Gas Production Vs. Processing Capacity - The crude-oil-driven Permian has been a hotbed of midstream development in recent years and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. RBN estimates Permian gross gas production surpassed 22 Bcf/d last month and projects that, if unconstrained by infrastructure, it would grow by another 4 Bcf/d or so over the next couple of years. One determinant of that rate of growth is adequate capacity to process gross gas volumes. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude this series with an assessment of the timing of processing capacity additions in the basin vs. RBN’s Mid-case gross gas production forecast. We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the latest source of turmoil in the Permian gas market: pipeline maintenance that sent spot gas prices at Waha Hub, the region’s benchmark trading point, to negative territory last week for the first time in two years — an indication of just how vulnerable and sensitive the basin is to midstream constraints. We discussed the market event in depth in this week’s NATGAS Permian report, but to briefly summarize, two major takeaway pipelines — Kinder Morgan’s Gulf Coast Express (GCX) Pipeline and Kinder’s El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG) system — conducted maintenance last week, and the partially overlapping events took as much as 1.3 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity offline at one point. With power demand and exports to Mexico in a seasonal slump, the capacity cuts hit Waha hard — absolute prices settled below zero for the flow days October 26-27. Intraday prices traded just below negative $2/MMBtu at times and averaged as low as minus $1.165/MMBtu for gas day October 27. The price disruption had various knock-on effects, including encouraging more ethane recovery and raising concerns of increased gas flaring. The maintenance events wrapped up by October 28, and cash for the weekend package rebounded to more than $3/MMBtu, according to the Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) Daily Gas Price Index. However, the outages provided a good preview of just how little spare pipeline capacity is available on the intrastate pipelines leaving the basin and underscored the likelihood of additional negative price events occurring before more pipeline capacity comes online next fall, particularly if multiple maintenance and market events converge as they did last week. Now let’s get back to the potential for gas processing capacity constraints — yet another major source of potential volatility in the basin. In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the rapid rise of Permian crude — and associated gross gas — production in the past couple of years, as well as the frenetic build-out of processing capacity that has facilitated it. Permian crude oil production climbed ~30% since the lows of 2020 to about 5.2 MMb/d this summer. With that came substantial gross gas volumes, which surged by over 40% to 21.3 Bcf/d on average this summer, up from the 2020 low of just under 15 Bcf/d. This could not have occurred without the addition of substantial gas processing capacity — the plants required to remove natural gas liquids and other impurities from the product stream (see our Good to Be a Gas Processor series). Processing capacity in the basin has more than doubled since the start of 2018 and we estimate total Permian processing will reach 24.5 Bcf/d by the end of this year.
Equipment that's designed to cut methane emission is failing – WFMJ -- Sharon Wilson pulled up to the BP site in Texas last June, production tanks towered above the windblown grass roughly 60 miles southeast of San Antonio. Cows and pumpjacks lined the roadsides. All looked placid. But when Wilson flipped on a high-tech video camera, a disquieting image became visible: A long black plume poured from a flare pipe. Her camera, designed to detect hydrocarbons, had revealed what appeared to be a stream of methane — a potent climate-warming gas, gushing from the very equipment that is supposed to prevent such emissions. “It's very discouraging and depressing, but mostly it's infuriating,” said Wilson, a field advocate for Earthworks, which promotes alternatives to fossil fuels. “Our government is not taking the action that needs to be taken.” Methane is the main ingredient in natural gas. Measured over a 20-year period, scientists say, it packs about 80 times the climate-warming power of carbon dioxide. And according to the International Energy Agency, methane is to blame for roughly 30% of the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution. Aerial surveys have documented huge amounts of methane wafting from oil and gas fields in the United States and beyond. It's a problem the Biden administration has sought to attack in its recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act. One of the law's provisions threatens fines of up to $1,500 per ton of methane released, to be imposed against the worst polluters. Perhaps most crucially, the law provides $1.55 billion in funding for companies to upgrade equipment to more effectively contain emissions — equipment that could, in theory, help the operators avoid fines. Yet some of the best equipment for reducing emissions is already installed on oil and gas infrastructure, including at the BP site that Wilson filmed. And critics say such equipment is failing to capture much of the methane and casting doubt on whether the Biden plan would go far to correct the problem. What Wilson saw at the BP site was an unlit flare. It's among the types of equipment the EPA recommends companies consider installing to reduce methane emissions. Resembling a tall pipe, a flare is supposed to burn off methane before it can escape. Flames typically burn from the top of the flares. But in this case, the flame had gone out, so methane was pouring from the pipe. The flare’s mechanisms are supposed to alert the operator if it stopped working. That didn't happen in this case, according to a report by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. “Energy companies have made pledges, but I’ve got to tell you, I haven’t seen anything from a practical standpoint that makes me believe there’s any reality to reductions on the ground,” said Tim Doty, an environmental scientist and former air quality inspector for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. “Maybe they’re making progress, but are they making enough progress to slow down climate change? I don’t think so.” The spewing methane that Wilson detected was among more than a dozen such scenes she documented over three days in the Eagle Ford Shale, an oil and gas field in south Texas. The methane poured from unlit or broken flares, storage tanks, vapor recovery units and compressors. She found it escaping at sites owned by companies including BP and Marathon Oil, both of which have pledged to reduce methane emissions. “They have the technology, but for some reason, whether they don’t maintain it, whether the technology doesn’t work, I don’t know, but I find it not working,” Wilson said.
Marathon Pete Reports Operational Snag at Galveston Bay Refinery - Marathon Petroleum Corp. on Tuesday reported an operational disruption at the Sulfur Recovery Unit of its Galveston Bay refining complex near Houston."Foam carryover from amine stripper tower caused unit upset," the refinery said in a statement to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The company added that this led to excessive gas emissions of about 2,000 pounds of sulfur dioxide late Monday in an incident that lasted about three hours."Unit resolved the issue and returned to normal operations," the refinery said. Marathon's 565,000 barrel-a-day Galveston Bay complex is the second-largest U.S. refinery after Saudi Aramco's 600,000 barrel-a-day Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, Texas.
Marathon Oil Adds More Eagle Ford Assets With $3B Ensign Buy - Marathon Oil has entered into a purchase agreement to acquire the Eagle Ford assets of Ensign Natural Resources for total cash consideration of $3 billion. The transaction is subject to customary terms and conditions, including closing adjustments, and the transaction is expected to close by year-end 2022 with an effective date of October 1, 2022. Marathon Oil said that the transaction added immediate double-digit accretion to key financial metrics and shareholder distributions consistent with the return of capital framework and anticipated the raising base dividend an additional 11 percent post-close. This adds significant high-return, high-working interest inventory that immediately competes for capital and is accretive to Marathon Oil's inventory life. Compelling industrial logic that significantly increases Eagle Ford scale by nearly doubling Marathon Oil's Basin position with high working interest acreage adjacent to the company's legacy position. Executing transactions while maintaining low leverage and investment grade balance sheet. "This acquisition in the core of the Eagle Ford satisfies every element of our exacting acquisition criteria, uniquely striking the right balance between immediate cash flow accretion and future development opportunity.” “The transaction is immediately accretive to our key financial metrics, it will drive higher distributions to our shareholders consistent with our operating cash flow driven Return of Capital Framework, it's accretive to our inventory life with high rate-of-return locations that immediately compete for capital, and it offers compelling industrial logic by nearly doubling our position in a Basin where we have a tremendous track record of execution excellence.” “Importantly, we expect to execute this transaction while maintaining our investment grade balance sheet and while still delivering on our aggressive return of capital objectives in 2022 and beyond,” chairman, president, and CEO Lee Tillman said. The transaction significantly expands Marathon Oil's Eagle Ford position by adding 130,000 net acres with 97 percent working interest located primarily in the prolific condensate and wet gas phase windows of the play. The company estimates it is acquiring more than 600 undrilled locations, representing an inventory life greater than 15 years, with inventory that immediately competes for capital in the Marathon Oil portfolio. The acreage is adjacent to Marathon Oil's existing Eagle Ford position, enabling the company to leverage further its knowledge, experience, and operating strengths in the Basin, while materially increasing its Basin-scale to 290,000 net acres and contributing to optimized supply chain accessibility and cost control in a tight service market. The acquisition also includes 700 existing wells, most of which were completed before 2015 with early-generation completion designs. These existing locations offer upside redevelopment potential, none of which was considered in the company's valuation of the asset or inventory count. The 130,000 net acres Marathon Oil is acquiring from Ensign Natural Resources span Live Oak, Bee, Karnes, and Dewitt Counties across the condensate, wet gas, and dry gas phase windows of the Eagle Ford. The estimated fourth quarter 2022 oil equivalent production is 67,000 net boed. Marathon Oil believes it can hold fourth quarter production flat with approximately 1 rig and 35 to 40 wells to sales per year.
Texas Votes for the Status Quo, Delivering Big Wins for Oil and Gas --As most pollsters had predicted, Texas Republicans routed their Democratic rivals in all statewide races in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott defeated his Democratic rival, Beto O’Rourke, by double digits. Republicans won by similarly wide margins in races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, land commissioner, Railroad Commission chairman and comptroller. Republicans are also likely to retain control of both chambers of the Legislature, which they have held since 2003.All of these positions will have direct and indirect influence on how the state will manage — or decline to manage — green energy transition, oil and gas industry oversight and regulation, climate change preparedness and environmental justice concerns.Four more years of Greg Abbott will likely continue what climate scientists and environmental advocates say is a failure to take aggressive action to protect Texas from the worst consequences of climate change. Abbott, who received more than $12 million in campaign contributions from oil and gas industry-related individuals and groups before the 2022 primary, refuses to even use the words “climate change.”As president of the Texas Senate, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who was reelected Tuesday to a third term, has used his position to push legislation that protects the oil and gas industry, including 2021’s Senate Bill 13, which forces state pension funds to pull their investments from financial firms such as BlackRock that have made commitments to divest from fossil fuels — boycotting the boycotters. (A Texas Monthly investigation found that Patrick still had significant personal investments with BlackRock a year after the passage of SB 13.)Comptroller Glenn Hegar, who won reelection Tuesday — and whose office is tasked with enforcing Senate Bill 13 — has also been an outspoken antagonist of federal efforts to enforce the Clean Air Act. In September, Hegar responded to an EPA proposal designating parts of the Permian Basin — a major oil and gas producing region — to be out of compliance with national air quality standards set under the Clean Air Act by accusing the agency of “federal overreach”and prioritizing “Green New Deal politics over the jobs and the Texas economy.” For Hegar, the Clean Air Act’s standards amount to “job-killing mandates.” Wayne Christian won reelection to the Texas Railroad Commission, the misleadingly named three-person panel charged with regulating the oil and gas industry. (Christian hauled in more than $800,000 in campaign contributions from the industry he oversees before the 2022 primary.) First elected to the Railroad Commission in 2016, and chairman since 2019, Christian has been an outspoken defender of industry interests, advancing permits for drilling and emergency flaring while overlooking countless violations.
New Mexico Oil and Gas Rules Await Cash After Democratic Sweep - Despite a Democratic sweep of New Mexico state offices and continuing blue majority in the upcoming Legislature, the future of oil and gas regulation remains hazy.Michelle Lujan Grisham returns to the Governor’s Mansion for another four years, after a first term spent initiating some of the nation’s most progressive clean energy incentives and most stringent oil and gas regulations. Adding to the tide, challenger Gabe Vasquez appears to have edged out Republican Yvette Herrell, an oil industry favorite, in a district covering a large part of the state’s section of the Permian Basin, thereby completing a Democratic trifecta for the state’s three U.S. Representative seats.Unlike most states, where transportation is the largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, in New Mexico more than half of those emissions come from the oil and gas production sector itself. That made regulating it a key component of Lujan Grisham’s first-term climate and environmental work. And those regulations had almost everything going for them: industry buy-in, environmentalist buy-in and a friendly Legislature — up to a point.Despite record income, the Democratic-majority Legislature has not fully funded the agencies that police the industry, leaving monitoring and enforcement of the rules largely up to the companies themselves. That funding gets diverted in the Legislature’s powerful Legislative Finance Committee, where the chair, Democrat Patty Lundstrom, raised more than $340,000 for her uncontested reelection campaign. And roughly 20% of that came from oil and gas interests. In fact, all but one committee member received fossil fuel funds for their elections.
US Cuts Oil Output Forecast Again As Shale Slows Down -The US slashed its forecast for 2023 oil production in the latest sign that world crude markets can’t rely on American shale fields to ramp up supply quickly enough to reduce high energy prices over the next year. Production is now estimated to hit 12.31 million barrels a day in 2023, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration released Tuesday, a fifth straight downward revision by the government agency. Next year’s output was previously expected to surpass the record 12.315 million barrels set in 2019. The projection suggests the pace of US shale growth, one of the few sources of major new supply in recent year, is slowing despite oil prices hovering at around $90 a barrel, about double most domestic producers’ breakeven costs. If the trend continues, it would deprive the global market of additional barrels to help make up for OPEC+ production cuts and disruption to Russian supplies amid its invasion of Ukraine. The EIA’s view, coming the same day that the US votes in midterm elections, is also a likely blow to President Joe Biden. He has repeatedly called on oil companies to use record profits to increase supply and help bring down fuel prices. Biden last week threatened the industry with a tax on windfall profits unless they increase investment. The previous boom in US shale production fostered an era of relatively cheap energy costs. It added more crude to global markets than the entire production of Iraq and Iran combined from 2012 to 2020, transforming the country into the biggest producer of both oil and gas. But the rebound in US production following the initial onslaught of Covid-19 has been lackluster. The EIA said Tuesday that output this year will average 11.83 million barrels a day. While that represents the first increase in its estimate since June, it means domestic output is still about 10% below the level seen back in February 2020, the month before the pandemic triggered a collapse in demand and widespread cuts to production. US shale producers have cited rising costs as one reason for slow growth. Executives speaking on earnings conference calls over the past week have warned of the impact of supply-chain constraints. Limited supplies of labor and equipment are “dictating the pace of the industry” right now, Ryan Lance, the chief executive officer of US oil producer ConocoPhillips, said Nov. 3. Rocketing inflation for oilfield items such as pipes, steel casing and frack sand is weighing on producers. The number of rigs drilling for crude in the US has climbed at a slower pace since July, while the inventory of drilled-but-uncompleted wells that swelled during the height of the pandemic is now largely used up. But the biggest factor behind the slowdown in growth is shale companies’ commitment to profits over production, a major reversal from the preceding decade when they increased output at almost any cost. “The majority of those companies are drilling and investing in a way that’s more disciplined than what was in favor prior to the pandemic,” EOG Resources Inc. CEO Ezra Yacob said last week. The new shale business model is good for shareholders, with US oil and gas stocks trading at record highs and companies spending billions of dollars on share buybacks and dividends. But it’s stoking tensions with the White House, which this year has repeatedly implored the industry to boost production.
Oil's Other Strategic Reserve Is Running Low, Too -- WSJ -- The inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells declined rapidly during the pandemic but has stabilized in recent months. Drill, baby, drill? After seeing oil demand plunge in 2020, U.S. producers’ mantra switched to “frack, baby, frack” as they paused drilling new rigs in favor of completing—or fracking—wells that had already been drilled. Drilling is just the first step in shale formations. Fracking, a process that involves the injection of water, sand and chemicals into the drilled well, actually gets the oil out of the ground. Producers’ preference for completion over drilling has led to a steep decline in the number of drilled but uncompleted wells, or DUCs, since August 2020. That inventory is at five-year lows, according to Rystad Energy data. While the U.S. Energy Information Administration counts all available DUCs, Rystad and S&P Global Commodity Insights prefer to track wells that are no more than two years old, because they are likely to be completed at a later date. Any older, and the chances of completion get much slimmer.
Can Refracs Boost U.S. Shale Output? -A global oil shortage and high fuel prices has triggered calls from President Joe Biden’s administration for U.S. shale producers to spend more of their profits to boost output. However, shale producers have been under pressure to focus more on returning excess cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks rather than production growth.Luckily, there’s a proven technology for U.S. shale oil producers to return to existing wells and give them a second, high-pressure blast to increase output for a fraction of the cost of finishing a new well: shale well refracturing. Refracturing is an operation designed to restimulate a well after an initial period of production, and can restore well productivity to near original or even higher rates of production as well as extend the productive life of a well. Re-fracking can be something of a booster shot for producers--a quick increase in output for a fraction of the cost of developing a new well.While refracturing has never really gone mainstream, the technique is seeing higher adoption as drilling technology improves, aging oilfields erode output, and companies try to do more with less. According to a report published in the Journal of Petroleum Technology, new research from the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas shows that refractured wells using liners are even capable of outperforming new wells despite the latter benefiting from more modern completion designs. JPT also estimates that North Dakota’s Bakken Shale straddles some 400 openhole wells capable of generating an excess of $2 billion if refractured. Mind you, that estimate is derived from oil prices at $60/bbl vs. this year’s average oil price of almost $90/bbl. According to Garrett Fowler, chief operating officer for ResFrac, a refrac can be up to 40% cheaper than a new well and double or triple oil flows from aging wells.Fowler says the most common re-frac method involves placing a steel liner inside the original well bore and then blasting holes through the steel casing to access the reservoir. The process typically uses half as much steel and frac sand than a new wellRefrac makes a lot of sense in the current inflationary environment. Back in April, Texas shale producer Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE: CPE) revealed that frac sand, drill pipe and labor costs have increased drilling and well-completion service costs ~20% Y/Y. Callon and Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES), both of which drill in North Dakota's Bakken shale, have been forced to hike capital spending budgets over the costs with Callon adding $75 million to its original budget while Hess added $200 million to its spending, "Techniques like re-fracturing will allow the industry to continue to harvest the oil and gas out of these reservoirs," said Stephen Ingram, a regional vice president at hydraulic fracturing firm Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL). Another key benefit: re-fracs do not require additional state permits or new negotiations with landowners. They are also less disruptive to the environment because well sites already have road access. Refracs have also demonstrated higher recovery rates: in URTeC 3724057, Roberta Barba, a longtime completions consultant and CEO of Houston-based Integrated Energy Services, et al. share a case study from the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas involving five refractured wells. The refractured wells had a combined average post-refrac EUR of 13.2% compared to an initial EUR of 7.4% average by seven new infill wells with modern completion designs. The Authors of the paper say that despite the presumed advantages of a modern completion, refracs can increase stimulated reservoir volume “beyond what is achievable in a new completion”. This is attributed to the fact that as the reservoir depletes and pore pressure drops, fractures from a refrac tend to grow into a new direction and tap previously inaccessible portions of rock.
Environmental groups push Interior to delay oil lease sales - -More than 40 environmental groups are asking the Interior Department to hold public hearings on federal oil lease sales planned in Wyoming, New Mexico and Kansas. In a letter to Interior Secretary Deb Haaland on Monday, the organizations also requested the deadline for public comment be extended 45 days for the public to weigh in on the climate impacts of ongoing leasing and the ramifications of oil and gas development on local communities. “The proposed lease sales stand to impact a range of environmental justice, public health, natural resource, and wildlife issues, but chief among these issues is the existential imperative to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming,” the groups wrote. Signed by WildEarth Guardians, the Pueblo Action Alliance, GreenLatinos and the Sierra Club, among others, the letter said a 30-day comment period for sales covering up to 260,000 acres is “unreasonable.” “The additional time will ensure the public—including environmental justice communities whose views on this type of development have historically been overlooked and who will be the first to feel the impacts of these sales—have an opportunity to meaningfully review and provide comments,” the letter says. The planned oil and gas auctions are the second round of onshore leasing under the Biden administration and represent a disappointment for organizations opposed to continued drilling on public lands and waters. The White House froze federal oil leasing last year to conduct a review of the government’s management of national stores of crude oil and natural gas in light of climate change but later lifted the moratorium to comply with a court order. While the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act included some reform measures championed by the Biden administration, such as higher royalty rates and fees, the law also toughened requirements forcing the White House to hold consistent oil and gas leases by making renewable energy contingent on regular oil auctions. When announcing the Wyoming and New Mexico sales in October, the Interior Department said the auctions were an effort to comply with that law and would follow new provisions on fees, royalties and minimum bids.
Biden courted oil companies before threatening them with windfall tax - Before President Biden lambasted oil companies for excess profits last week and threatened to slap a “windfall tax” on them, several of his top energy advisers privately attempted to woo that same industry only to get rebuffed, according to seven people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Officials from the White House and the State and Energy departments reached out to oil industry trade groups and companies in mid-October to get support for a plan to buy crude to refill the country’s emergency reserves, said source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not permitted to share the discussions. They told industry representatives their plan would help U.S. oil and gas companies by guaranteeing that the government would purchase oil in months to come if crude prices fell to about $70 a barrel or below. It was the latest of several attempts by the Biden administration to prompt oil companies to boost output, this time by telling them they could invest with the confidence that the government would help ensure steady revenue. Officials including the National Economic Council director, Brian Deese, and Amos Hochstein, a special presidential coordinator at the State Department, called some of the world’s largest oil companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell. But none has endorsed the plan or committed to boosting output, a setback for an administration trying to lower energy prices going into an election and weaken the power of Russia as a major energy exporter. Instead of repairing relations with the U.S. oil industry, the outreach deepened a divide between the White House and executives who control U.S. oil output and have little trust that the president will back them. Several industry officials said executives told administration officials that the logic of the plan wasn’t clear and that the effort was probably too small to work as the White House claimed. Some called the outreach a political ploy amid a series of comments from the president blaming the oil companies for record-high prices and castigating them for their historically high profits. “We’ve been disappointed that the conversations of the last several weeks have been geared so much toward midterm politics,” said Chet Thompson, leader of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, the refiners’ trade group. “We’ll be happy after that to get back to serious energy policymaking.”
Biden-Big Oil Feud Intensifying As World Needs More US Oil -As October drew to a close, the White House saw another potential energy flash point on the horizon. Diesel and heating oil inventories in the US Northeast were getting worryingly low. Officials swung into action, organizing a series of calls between Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and several of the country’s biggest oil refiners to discuss strategies to boost stockpiles. The tone was cordial, according to people with knowledge of the conversations. But the very next working day, the oil industry was blindsided. At a hastily arranged press conference on Oct. 31, President Joe Biden castigated Big Oil for handing “outrageous” profits to shareholders and executives rather than bringing down prices at the pump. Unless that changed, he warned, oil companies faced more taxes. “Their profits are a windfall of war -- the windfall from the brutal conflict that’s ravaging Ukraine and hurting tens of millions of people around the globe,” he said. It was just the kind of whiplash that has repeatedly sown mistrust and stoked tensions with the fossil fuel industry over the course of the Biden administration, according to multiple interviews with executives and lobbyists involved in oil and gas, who declined to be identified because the meetings and conversations they described were private. Biden’s team has been at odds with the industry since the 2020 election campaign. But as global energy prices spiked this year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the White House called on Big Oil to help, only to grow increasingly frustrated that it’s holding back on production while reaping record earnings. “Month after month, these companies have posted record profits that they’ve then used to pad shareholder pockets rather than boost production and lower gas prices,” said White House spokesman Abdullah Hasan. “Month after month, we’ve offered them every opportunity and incentive to change their behavior.” While they were never under any illusions about the president’s green ambitions, oil industry insiders say they’ve become increasingly unhappy with a series of conflicting policy priorities -- for example, moving within a matter of months from a halt on federal leasing for oil drilling to demanding more production -- and unrealistic requests such as spending billions of dollars to rapidly add more refining capacity. Unwilling to act as fall guys for surging household fuel bills in the run-up to the midterm elections, typically low-profile industry figures are becoming more outspoken. Last week, the chief executive officers of Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. issued grave warnings about potential windfall taxes. Marshall McCrea, co-CEO of pipeline operator Energy Transfer LP, said this week that US energy policy is so all over the map that it’s becoming like “a Saturday Night Live skit.” “It’d be funny if it wasn’t so tragically sad,”
Fossil Fuel Firms Spent Millions in Bid to Defeat Democrats in the Midterms - Ohio voters chose Trump-backed Republican J.D. Vance over Democrat Tim Ryan to fill a crucial Senate seat on Tuesday, and the race was a nailbiter until the end. Seeking support from working-class voters in a state that former President Donald Trump won twice, Ryan ran a heterodox campaign with little support from the national Democratic Party, but the race was so competitive that Republican groups swooped in and spent at least $30 million to counter the congressman and boost Vance. A good chunk of that money was a gift from the fossil fuel industry.Ryan, a fierce critic of the trade deals that gutted manufacturing jobs across Appalachia and the Rust Belt, made it clear that he is no enemy of fossil fuels. Ryan wants Ohio to be a leading producer of clean energy technology, but he is also a big fan of fracking for natural gas, which provides jobs for his constituents and income for a region that saw coal mining and manufacturing collapse in recent decades. Ryan has backed away from supporting anything like a Green New Deal and is compared to Sen. Joe Manchin, the conservative Democrat and coal champion from West Virginia who obstructed President Joe Biden’s agenda in an attempt to win concessions for the fossil fuel industry. While Republicans attack Ryan for voting against unpopular bills that would have deregulated polluters and opened sensitive ecosystems such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, the fossil fuel lobby is more concerned about which party controls the Senate and how much Democrats can achieve before Biden leaves office.The industry spent lavishly on the 2022 midterms in hopes of flipping Congress over to GOP control and thwarting any effort by Democrats to fight climate change by reducing oil and gas pollution. As of October 19, fossil fuel industry groups and companies, such as Koch Industries and Chevron, had donated $32.8 million to two super PACs aligned with Republican congressional leadership, according to a review of federal records by Sludge co-founder David Moore. The super PACs, the Congressional Leadership Fund and the Senate Leadership Fund, have spent more money on the 2022 midterms than any other outside groups. Fueled by wealthy industries and billionaires, campaign spending by outside groups reached a record $1.3 billion by mid-October, and total spending could be higher after largely unregulated super PACs spent the final weeks ahead of the election flooding the airwaves and internet with ads. The Senate Leadership Fund, which operates independently but is dedicated to winning Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a GOP majority, was the top spender as of last month after reporting nearly $150 million in expenditures, according to OpenSecrets. The Congressional Leadership Fund focuses on House races and spent $110 million on ads attacking Democrats or backing Republicans. National campaigns are not the only target. Flush with cash from record profits, the fossil fuel industry poured money into lobbying and campaigns at all levels of government in 2022, including in states, such as New York and California, where policymakers are pursuing cleaner energy and regulations to reduce the health impacts of pollution.
Colorado's Suncor Refinery is Fighting a Plan to Monitor its Toxic Pollution -Suncor filed a suit against the state to block fenceline monitoring requirements for its refinery, but community and environmental groups quickly moved to intervene and ensure they remain in place Communities have a right to know about exposures to toxic pollution that could affect their health. That’s why Earthjustice and our partners are fighting to protect critical steps the state of Colorado has taken to ensure transparency around toxic emissions. Beginning in 2023, the Suncor refinery in North Denver will be required to operate a new fenceline monitoring system to provide better data about toxic air emissions in real-time. In September, Suncor filed suit against the state to block these requirements, but community and environmental groups quickly moved to intervene and ensure they remain in place. Suncor is an immense refinery located less than a half mile from residential homes, yet it routinely spews hazardous pollution into the air. After an operational issue in 2019, a yellow dust blanketed the surrounding region and schools were forced to shelter in place. The refinery has repeatedly failed to comply with clean air laws, including by exceeding emissions limits in its permit for harmful air toxics. Those most affected by Suncor’s toxic emissions include low-income families and people of color who—because of historic environmental racism—have disproportionately faced the cumulative impacts of living in a pollution hot spot. Residents living in Commerce City and the neighboring Globeville and Elyria-Swansea communities, in particular, experience disproportionate rates of cancer, diabetes, and asthma as well as reduced life expectancy. Suncor’s new monitoring system is a result of the work of Earthjustice, our partner organizations, and community members to draft and support the passage of HB21-1189 last year. The legislation directs the Suncor refinery to install continuous air monitors along the facility’s perimeter or “fenceline”—where pollution leaves the refinery’s property and spreads into neighboring communities where people live, work and play.
Exxon faces $2 billion loss on sale of troubled California oil properties (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp will take up to a $2 billion loss on the highly leveraged sale of a troubled California offshore oil and gas field that have been idled since a 2015 pipeline spill. The sale comes after a failed bid this year to restart production at the site and as Exxon culls poor performing businesses. Santa Barbara officials in March rejected an Exxon plan to restart operations and ship oil via dozens of tanker trucks each day to inland refineries. Sable Offshore, a blank check company founded by industry veteran James Flores, will borrow 97% of the $643 million purchase price from Exxon under a five-year loan. Blank check companies raise money to acquire operating businesses. If Flores fails to restart production at the Santa Ynez field by the start of 2026, Exxon could take back the entire operation, Sable disclosed in a filing. Exxon was not immediately available to comment on terms of the deal. It has accelerated asset sales to cut operating costs and improve returns after a historic loss in 2020. Flores will seek permits to restart Santa Ynez and expects to pump about 28,100 barrels of oil and gas per day beginning in 2024, according to a Sable investor presentation. The field has 112 wells and the potential for at least another 100 wells, its presentation showed. A subsea pipeline leak seven years ago sent 2,400 barrels of the Santa Ynez oil into the Pacific Ocean, leading to a shutdown. Exxon acquired the pipeline from its owner and has been trying to resume production. The Santa Ynez sale includes three oil and gas platforms that sit up to 9 miles (14 km) off the California coast, a pipeline and oil and gas processing facilities. The first platform was built in the 1970s began producing oil in 1981. Flores has a long history of buying and selling companies. He has run five U.S. oil companies beginning with Flores & Rucks Inc in 1992, and often sold his companies at sizeable gains. His last business, Sable Permian Resources, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2020 as oil prices tumbled. Last year, he raised $287.5 million through an initial public offering for the company that became Sable Offshore. Sable must complete a deal by March 1 or return the money to its IPO investors, its filings show.
Crews clean up tar balls from 2021 Amplify oil spill found on Laguna Beach coastline – Clean-up crews scooped up nearly 30 pounds of tar balls from the Laguna Beach coast on Sunday, Nov. 6, confirmed to be the remnants of the Huntington Beach oil spill more than a year later. Crews responded to the site in Laguna Beach today where weathered tar balls were discovered that matched product from a pipeline spill in October 2021. The team evaluated the impacted area and plan for removal tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/65WEY1oJ3f The tar balls were found on the shoreline between Thalia and Cress streets on Oct. 26, said Steve Gonzalez, a spokesman for the California Office of Spill Prevention and Response. Within days, a sample of the tar balls was sent to a state laboratory in Sacramento, where they were found to match the chemical makeup of the oil that spewed from an Amplify Energy pipeline connecting their oil rigs off the coast of Orange County to a Long Beach refining facility in October 2021. Gonzalez said Orange County beaches occasionally see tar balls wash up that escape from naturally occurring seeps along the ocean floor. But California keeps files of crude oil samples from every producer in the state — testing the tar balls found last month against that database showed the oil was from the Amplify spill, he said. “Each producer has their own ingredients that they use to treat the oil,” he said. “It’s just like people — each person has their unique fingerprint, and each oil has a unique identification that we can distinguish and track to each producer of oil out there.” At the time, the spill led to beach closures and the cancellation of several major events in Huntington Beach, devastating merchants in the area. A total of 25,000 gallons of crude oil leaked into the ocean from the ruptured pipeline. The oil escaped after a crack in the pipeline burst, resulting in a loss of pressure and alarms on board Amplify’s oil rig. But it took more than 12 hours for the company and officials to notify the public about the spill. Amplify said the crack in the pipeline occurred as a result of hits from two anchors from cargo ships passing above in January 2021. The anchors dragged the pipeline and bent it like straw. The crack finally opened in October 2021. Amplify pleaded no contest to federal and state criminal charges related to its response to the leakage and has been required to pay $50 million to individuals and businesses affected by the spill. The clean-up team includes personnel from Amplify, the U.S. Coast Guard, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Office of Spill Prevention and Response and the county of Orange. There were no beach closures during the clean-up, which was completed Sunday, Gonzalez said.
Chevron to pay $200,000 in fines for Richmond oil spill - Last Friday, the Contra Costa County District Attorney’s Office and the Department of Fish and Wildlife reached a settlement with Chevron. This is in response to last year's oil leak at the Richmond Refinery Marine Terminal.The leak started as a small hole in a pipeline, back in February of last year. It went on to spill nearly 760 gallons of oil into the water of the Richmond Long Wharf.In the days following the spill, there were no reports of the spilled oil affecting the animals or people in the area. However, a sheen of oil could be seen in the Bay waters, between Point Molate to Brooks Island.In order to effectively combat oil spills like these, a coalition called a Unified Command was formed. It included Chevron, the Office of Spill Prevention and Response (or OSPR), County Health Services and the Coast Guard.In Friday’s settlement, Chevron agreed to pay more than $130,000 to the OSPR, $70,000 towards wildlife and nature funds, and $2,000 to the Coast Guard. They’ll also pay for additional staff training and new equipment installation, according to the Contra Costa County DA. This situation with Chevron is one of many. In 2018, Chevron had to pay $5,000,000 in fines relating to the fiery explosion at the Richmond Refinery in 2012.
Time Will Tell if Big Oil’s California Election Investments Pay Off -While California Gov. Gavin Newsom was easily reelected on Nov. 8, heartening environmentalists who want him to continue to push through his aggressive climate agenda, the rest of the state’s midterm election results were mixed. California’s oil and gas industry poured millions into several legislative races, some of which were always going to be competitive. Many have come down to the wire, with candidates neck-and-neck in the polls and no clear winner yet. In some of the races, it could take weeks to determine the winner. Meanwhile, the only climate-related ballot measure — Prop. 30, which would have taxed the wealthy to pay for electric vehicles and charging infrastructure — did not pass. The measure, which was funded by Lyft, was strongly opposed by Newsom. In California Senate District 8, which includes a portion of Sacramento County, the city’s Vice Mayor Angelique Ashby held a narrow lead over fellow Democrat Dave Jones. Capital & Main previously reported that a PAC representing oil refinery owners in the state plowed $1.6 million into her campaign in the last few weeks — the largest single amount from the industry for any state candidate since at least the spring. It’s not clear how her election might shape climate policy or regulations on the oil and gas industry if she’s elected. At publication time, Ashbyheld a lead of 34,749 compared to Jones’ 32,111.Refinery owners such as Chevron, Valero and Marathon bought about $1 million’s worth of ads for Stephanie Nguyen in her race against Eric Guerra for the 10th Assembly District seat representing parts of Sacramento. Nguyen had a comfortable lead at 20,297 against Guerra’s 14,728 as of Thursday morning. In another nail-biter, the state Senate race in District 38 to represent parts of Orange County, Encinitas mayor and Democrat Catherine Blakespear was just barely ahead of Republican Matthew Gunderson. The oil and gas PAC spent upwards of a million on pro-Gunderson ads and consulting, and an equal amount for opposition materials against Blakespear, who’s made taxing excess industry profits from high gasoline prices and a statewide transition to renewable energy key planks of her campaign. At publication time she held a 108,548 to 107,3580 lead over Gunderson, though determining a final winner could, again, take weeks. A race in California oil country — the state’s “most fiercely contested political turf” this election, according to CalMatters — might show the limits of industry spending in competitive elections. It spent hundreds of thousands here in the final days before the election, but at publication time, Jasmeet Bains held a large lead over fellow Democrat and Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez. But it may not be so bad for the industry. In public statements, both Bains and Perez have spoken favorably about oil and gas producers, which are the county’s biggest tax payers and among its main employers. Republican candidate Juan Alanis, another beneficiary of oil money, who’s running for Assembly District 22 to represent parts of Stanislaus County and Merced County, held a comfortable lead over Democrat Jessica Self. But in a very tight race for Assembly District 27 to represent part of nearby Fresno County, oil candidate Esmerelda Soira barely maintained a lead over Republican Mark Pazin.
USGC heavy crude prices may remain under pressure until Canada's Trans Mountain expansion enters service - Record-low differentials for heavy crudes that compete on the US Gulf Coast may not rebound until the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion enters service and diverts Canadian sour barrels away from the US and toward Canada's West Coast, traders and analysts say. The Trans Mountain expansion is expected to add an additional 590,000 b/d of takeaway capacity in late 2023 from the Alberta oil sands to British Columbia. Increased flows to Canada's western coast may alleviate a surge of heavy Canadian crude exports to the USGC that accelerated late last year following expansions to the Enbridge Mainline, and the reversal of the Capline pipeline. "The start-up of the Trans Mountain expansion will provide relief to the distressed Western Canadian barrels as differentials will shrink in three to six months to about $10/b" discounts to WTI, said veteran Canadian crude watcher Greg Stringham, a former vice president at the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Stringham said vessels will likely ship the additional Trans Mountain flows equally to Asia and California. Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Alberta averaged at a $20.07/b discount to Cushing WTI during the third quarter, widening from a $12.81/b discount in Q3 2021, Platts assessments show. Platts is a unit of S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global has a similar view, forecasting that the additional outlet and takeaway capacity for growing Western Canadian supply may support firmer Canadian heavy differentials on the USGC after the Trans Mountain expansion enters service. S&P Global sees Western Canadian crude supply, or production plus diluent, growing more than 300,000 b/d over 2022-2023. Canadian oil sands producer MEG Energy also expects narrower price discounts, CEO Derek Evans said Nov. 10 on an earnings call. But MEG, which shipped nearly 66% of its total production in third quarter 2022 to the USGC through pipelines from land-locked Alberta, will have an option to increase that figure to 80% utilizing the 20,000-b/d capacity it has booked on TMX, the company said in statement. Currently, MEG utilizes its option to ship 100,000 b/d of its Access Western Blend blend to the USGC utilizing its capacity on the Flanagan South and Seaway pipeline systems, with the remainder being sold to the Edmonton market, it said. In the USGC, the company also has access to 1.4 million barrels of crude storage in Freeport, Texas and also contracted dock space at the Beaumont Terminal that provides an option of one Aframax loading each month, it said.
China Replaces Alaskan Expensive Crude With Russian Oil - China’s passion for Alaskan oil appears to be over as the country turns to Russia. Surging Chinese energy demand amid Covid lockdowns on the US West Coast prompted Alaskan oil exporters to ship more crude than any time in two-decades, and nearly all of it went to the East Asian country. So far this year, shipments have almost dried up entirely. Just a single cargo sailed aboard the Seaways Sabine to China in March, according to Vortexa Data. Unlike Russian oil that is sold at a discount due to sanctions, Alaskan oil has traded at its biggest premium to the US benchmark since 2014 this year. There is “just a general lack of interest from the traditional buyers in China,” Rohit Rathod, a Vortexa analyst, wrote in an email. “Those buyers have mostly likely turned away from ANS in favor of cheaper Russian ESPO crude.” India boosted purchases of discounted Russian barrels after the invasion of Ukraine at the expense of oil from other parts of the world, such as Canada.
Is Mexico's Natural Gas Market Adapting to the New World Order? Listen Now to NGI's Hub & Flow -Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow. NGI Latin America editor Christoper Lenton sits down with Mexico energy expert Rosanety Barrios to talk about Mexico’s natural gas market in light of global turmoil after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Lenton and Barrios discuss how Mexico is now competing for natural gas with European and Asian buyers of LNG, the perils of energy security in the new world order, and how Mexico needs to adapt – from releasing pipeline capacity to opening more exploration rounds, from rewriting policy to progressing key infrastructure projects. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI – which publishes daily, weekly and monthly natural gas indexes at pricing points across North America – works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort.
Peru indigenous group frees dozens of tourists held in oil spill protest -- A Peruvian indigenous group freed a group of tourists held for over a day in a protest over what the community alleged to be government inaction over toxic oil spills, one of the released tourists and local officials said separately on Friday. The Cuninico indigenous group, from the Urarinas district in Loreto province in Peru's Amazon rainforest, had held an estimated 150 tourists — which included some US and European nationals — to raise awareness about the oil spillage in a local river, according to local media. "We were just all freed, we have boarded a boat and are on our way to (the city of) Iquitos," one of the freed tourists, Peruvian Angela Ramirez, told Reuters. Peru's independent public defender agency said on Twitter that "after dialogue with the (head) of the Cuninico communities, our request to release people was accepted." "The right and respect for life must prevail," the chief of the indigenous group, Watson Trujillo, told local media outlet RPP. RPP added that none of the tourists were physically harmed. Among those taken while travelling river boats were disabled individuals, a pregnant women and a 1-month-old child, said Ramirez. Media reports cited the number of people being held as ranging from 70 to as many as 300, including between 17 and 23 foreign nationals. The United Kingdom's foreign ministry said in a statement that it was in contact with local authorities regarding a "very small number of British nationals involved in an incident in Peru."
‘No evidence MPs were bullied,’ says report into fracking vote chaos -- A controversial and chaotic vote on fracking last month did see some MPs shout and crowd closely together, but there is no evidence to indicate bullying or intimidation, an official report for the Commons speaker has concluded. The speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, ordered the inquiry by Commons officials after claims that some wavering Conservative MPs were physically pulled into the “no” voting lobby following the debate on 19 October. The melee took place as MPs voted on a Labour opposition day motion which would have sought to ban fracking in England. Liz Truss’s then-government ended up winning the vote easily. The report for Hoyle, compiled by three senior parliamentary officials, found that while there was evidence of shouting and “intemperate language”, claims of jostling seemed caused by the large numbers of MPs gathered around, and no members believed they had come under pressure to change their vote. It found that much of the chaos was created by confusion over whether the vote was deemed a confidence motion, a day before Truss agreed to step down as prime minister. Tory MPs had been told it was a confidence issue, meaning they could lose the party whip if they voted with Labour or abstained. But near the end of the debate the energy minister, Graham Stuart, told them it was not, something the report said “came as a surprise” to both MPs and Conservative whips. As the whips left to seek guidance from No 10, a crowd of agitated Tory MPs gathered around the “no” lobby, which was swollen by the arrival of opposition MPs who had just voted yes and had heard rumours that the now-absent chief whip, Wendy Morton, and her deputy had resigned. “The continued uncertainty about the status of the vote meant that discussions between Conservative members became more fraught and some opposition members also sought to make themselves heard by those involved in the discussions,” said the report, based on interviews or written statements from 36 MPs and four nearby officials. “The crowded nature of the lobby meant that voices were raised in order to be heard; some members may have raised their voices more than was necessary. “It appears that a few members, from differing parties, used intemperate language towards one another, although exact details of what was said are unclear.” Some opposition MPs were urging Tory MPs to rebel which “further inflamed general tensions”, it added.
Exclusive: Industry body slams UK-US LNG deal following fracking snub - The UK’s leading onshore energy body has hammered the Government’s decision to chase a long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal with the US, while re-imposing a moratorium on fracking.Charles McAllister, director of policy, government and public affairs at UK Onshore Oil and Gas (UKOOG) blasted what he saw as the hypocrisy of Downing Street’s reported decision to take LNG supplies that originated from US shale sites, while effectively banning the process in the UK.He told City A.M.: “This decision shows that the UK Government supports fracking as a technology, as long as it doesn’t take place in the UK. There is no justification for the UK onshore oil and gas industry to face such hypocritical treatment.”The policy director also criticised the increased reliance on LNG, with its higher carbon footprint and costs, alongside the growing reliance on overseas vendors compared to domestically procured gas.He noted that LNG is around four times as carbon intensive as UK shale, making it considerably less appealing than domestic supplies as the country scrambles to meet net zero carbon emissions targets over the next three decades.McAllister said: “Imported shale gas does not offer the evident economic, geopolitical or environmental advantages offered by exploiting our own natural gas.”Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a Kremlin-backed squeeze on gas flows into Europe, the UK has turned its focus to boosting domestic energy supplies.This includes ambitious targets for offshore wind, solar power, nuclear and hydrogen.However, the new Government has no plans to revive fracking, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak repealing former leader Liz Truss’ decision to scrap the moratorium – which had been in place since 2019 amid concerns over tremors.
Estonia drops plans for stake in Finnish LNG terminal -The Estonian government has decided to give up on acquiring a stake in the Finnish LNG terminal, and to instead buy the mooring quay at Paldiski."At today's cabinet meeting, the ministers decided to abandon the acquisition of a stake in the Finnish LNG terminal" operated by Gasgrid Finland's subsidiary Floating LNG Terminal Finland Oy, the Estonian government said today.Estonia and Finland previously signed a co-operation agreement stating that the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) Exemplar, wholly rented by the Finnish side, will be moored at whichever terminal — either Paldiski in Estonia or Inkoo in Finland — is finished first. But last month, the Estonian and Finnish economy ministries confirmed that Exemplar will be moored at Finland's Inkoo port, while the Finnish side suggested that Estonia would have to buy a stake in the LNG terminal before getting preferential access to it.Around €30mn has been allocated for the Estonian system operator Elering to participate in the joint project with Finland. This will be used to buy additional gas volumes, said the minister of economy and infrastructure Riina Sikkut."There is a possibility under discussion that the first gas cargo arriving to the LNG floating terminal will be offered primarily to the holders of strategic reserves in Estonia, Finland and Latvia. If the price... is good, the conditions are suitable and the purchase increases the supply security of the Estonian market, then it is reasonable to use the opportunity," Sikkut said.The FSRU at Inkoo is scheduled to receive its commissioning cargo in mid-December, according to the Finnish system operator Gasgrid.But the Estonian government instead instructed state-run gas stockpiling agency ESPA to buy the mooring quay at Paldiski from construction firms Alexela and Infortar, which according to the country's prime minister Kaja Kallas is "an important" project for Estonia's energy security.Following today's decision, construction firms will be able to sell the quay to the state "if they wish, even from this year", Kallas said. Estonia will pay the "proven costs incurred by the developer for the quay this year, the upper limit of which is €30mn", according to Sikkut. "In total, the transaction will cost up to €38mn... and this amount has already been allocated by the government to the gas stockpiling agency ESPA," Sikkut said.
Oil and Gas Industry's Expansion Plans Decried as Attack on 'Livable Planet' - Despite repeated warnings that new fossil fuel projects are incompatible with averting climate disaster, oil and gas corporations "are on a massive expansion course" to increase dirty energy production in the coming years, according to an analysis released Thursday at the United Nations COP27 meeting in Egypt."Keeping these oil and gas resources in the ground is the bare minimum of what is needed to keep 1.5°C attainable."The new report by the German nonprofit Urgewald and 50 NGO partners, which denounces "an industry willing to sacrifice a livable planet," found that the vast majority of the world's oil and gas companies intend to scale up the extraction of fossil fuels in the years ahead, having collectively dumped $160 billion into exploration since 2020.None of this investment is consistent with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) blueprint for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, a key component of meeting the Paris agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels—beyond which impacts will growincreasingly deadly for millions of people, particularly those residing in poor nations that have done the least to cause the crisis.The IEA made clear in its May 2021 report that no new oil and gas fields can be exploited if the world is to avoid climate catastrophe. But according to Urgewald, 96% of upstream fossil fuel companies (655 out of 685) are planning to expand their operations, and short-term expansion plans have increased by 20% since last year.According to Urgewald, 512 of these companies are currently "taking active steps to bring 230 billion barrels of oil equivalent (bboe) of untapped resources into production before 2030."If these fossil fuels are removed from the ground and burned, an additional 115 billion tonnes of heat-trapping carbon dioxide equivalent will be pumped into the atmosphere by the end of the decade. That's 30 times more greenhouse gas pollution than Europe generates each year.Urgewald's report comes one day after Climate Trace revealed in a separate analysis that global emissions from oil and gas production are up to three times higher than reported."The outcome of our calculations is truly frightening," Fiona Hauke, senior oil and gas researcher at Urgewald, said in a statement. "Oil and gas companies' short-term expansion plans are not in line with the net-zero emissions course put forward by the IEA. Keeping these oil and gas resources in the ground is the bare minimum of what is needed to keep 1.5°C attainable."As the report points out, even "if the oil and gas industry simply maintained its 2021 production level of 56.3 bboe, it alone would exhaust our remaining carbon budget within 15.5 years."Just over a dozen corporations—including Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Chevron, and Shell—are responsible for more than half of the industry's short-term expansion efforts, Urgewald found.
Fracking: The energy issue splitting the German government – DW – Finance Minister Christian Lindner, whose FDP party is losing ground in the polls, has once again raised the debate of fracking for natural gas. The proposal could crack the governing coalition, as well as the bedrock. Fracking has become the latest issue to stress-test Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government, after Finance Minister Christian Lindner raised the prospect of lifting Germany's partial ban last week. We have considerable gas reserves in Germany that can be extracted without endangering drinking water," the leader of the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) told the Funke Media Group. The extraction could be "responsible within ecological conditions," Lindner said, before arguing that it would in fact be more "irresponsible to forgo fracking out of ideological commitments." After pushing to extend the lifeline of nuclear power, Lindner now wants frackingImage: Oliver Berg/dpa/picture-alliance The extraction method — fracturing bedrock by pumping water and chemicals into it to release gas — was partially banned in Germany in 2016. But a string of politicians, mostly from the far-rightAlternative for Germany (AfD) and the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), have insisted that it remains a viable way to find new fossil fuels on German soil. The Environment Ministry, led by the Green Party's Steffi Lemke, lost no time in shooting Lindner's idea down. "Fracking gas is damaging to the climate and extracting it damages the environment," a ministry spokesman told the RND news network. Extracting it was banned in Germany "for good reason," he said. Germany theoretically has enough natural gas under its own territory to cover 20% of the country's needs, but only half of it is "economically viable," according to the gas and oil industry association BVEG. On top of that, the BVEG told the ARD broadcaster in April that it would take three years of exploration just to establish where the new extraction sites should be, never mind actually start pumping gas out of the ground.
Vitol Threatens Gas Halt in $1 Billion Standoff With Germany - Commodities giant Vitol SA is threatening to suspend gas deliveries to a German state-controlled energy business in a legal standoff that could cost the German company around €1 billion. SEFE Marketing & Trading Ltd., a former Gazprom PJSC-trading arm, lost an urgent London court bid seeking to stop trading firm Vitol from cutting the gas supplies as soon as next week. Gas prices have surged since the contract was first signed, meaning the stakes for both sides are huge. SEFE faces potential losses of around €1 billion ($987 million) if it needs to replace the lost gas at higher prices, two people familiar with the matter said. “These contracts were entered into when market prices were significantly lower,” SEFE said in an emailed statement. The firm “strongly refutes the validity of the announced suspension and will continue to contest it through all available channels.” A Vitol spokesperson declined to comment. The potential losses mean extra financial pressure on the German taxpayer, which has propped up SEFE with an €11.8 billion credit line via German state-bank KfW Group. Vitol, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses, made a record profit of $4.2 billion last year. A court order shows the London-based SEFE unit asked the judge to prevent Vitol from taking action that threatened to “cause immediate and irreparably harmful consequences” as soon as Tuesday. Vitol argued it has the right to terminate or suspend supplies because of SEFE’s change in ownership in April, according to two people familiar with the matter. The SEFE parent company, Securing Energy for Europe GmbH, was known as Gazprom Germania GmbH, and was an arm of the Russian state’s energy empire. The firm was cut loose in April after European sanctions followed its invasion of Ukraine, which prompted the German government to step in to prevent a collapse that would have sent financial waves across the global energy markets and destabilized much of Germany’s industrial region. The German regulator BNetzA, which has oversight over SEFE, didn’t comment on any figures and referred to ongoing legal proceedings. “This is about the security of supply in Europe,” a spokeswoman said. After Russia cut gas flows to Europe, Vitol in a separate move applied to the German government for compensation for the gas it was owed by Russia, which would have been funded by a proposed German levy on consumers. The entire levy was stopped due to political and administrative hurdles before any payments were made.
Germany And India Get In Tussle Over Canceled LNG Cargoes -A commercial spat over natural gas has escalated to a diplomatic tussle between Berlin and New Delhi as Europe’s energy crunch takes a growing toll on the developing world. Diplomats have been called in to try to resolve a disagreement over a cut in supplies of liquefied natural gas to India by a German-state-backed company, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the matter is private. Gas supplies from Germany’s Securing Energy for Europe GmbH to GAIL India Ltd. have been disrupted since May after Moscow’s sanctions on the group made it impossible to source cargoes from Russia. India is suggesting the company should source alternative supplies from its portfolio to meet contractual obligations, one of the people said. The global surge in natural gas costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has hit price-sensitive emerging countries hard. India is paying record amounts to replace canceled supply, that’s if it can find any. With prices soaring, some suppliers to South Asia have simply canceled long-scheduled deliveries in favor of better yields elsewhere. SEFE’s Singaporean unit said in September it can’t fulfill its long-term LNG contract with GAIL. SEFE, a former Gazprom PJSC business now under control of the German government, is paying a small penalty fee of 20% the value of the contractual shipment, a fraction of the value of current spot gas prices in Europe, leaving a big gap for GAIL to cover to get replacement supplies. “As a result of Russian sanctions against SEFE and its subsidiaries, including SM&T and SM&T Singapore, both the SEFE group and GAIL are affected by the subsequent cessation of supplies,” a SEFE spokesperson said. “SEFE and GAIL are addressing this issue together under their contractual agreements.” Spokespeople for GAIL, Germany’s economy and foreign ministries and India’s foreign ministry all declined to comment. Finding a diplomatic solution is the aim but pre-arbitration talks are also taking place between SEFE and GAIL, the people said. SEFE has canceled 17 cargoes since May, Rakesh Kumar Jain, GAIL’s director for finance, said on an earning call on Friday. GAIL has a contract to receive 2.5 million tons of LNG a year until 2041 signed with the previously named GM&T, according to data from the LNG importers group GIIGNL.
European Energy Crisis Will Trigger Years Of Shortages, Blackouts -Bills will be high, but Europe will survive the winter: It’s bought enough oil and gas to get through the heating seasons. Much deeper costs will be borne by the world’s poorest countries, which have been shut out of the natural gas market by Europe’s suddenly ravenous demand. It’s left emerging market countries unable to meet today’s needs or tomorrow’s, and the most likely consequences — factory shutdowns, more frequent and longer-lasting power shortages, the foment of social unrest — could stretch into the next decade. “Energy security concerns in Europe are driving energy poverty in the emerging world,” said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG. “Europe is sucking gas away from other countries whatever the cost.” After a summer of rolling blackouts and political turmoil, cooler weather and heavy rains have alleviated the immediate energy crisis in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. But any relief promises to be temporary. Colder temperatures are on the way — parts of South Asia can be more bitter than London — and the chances of securing long-term supplies are slim. The strong US dollar has only complicated the situation, forcing nations to choose between buying fuel or making debt payments. Under the circumstances, global fuel suppliers are increasingly wary of selling to countries that could be heading for default. The center of the issue is Europe’s response to tightening fuel supplies and the war in Ukraine. Cut off from Russian gas, European countries have turned to the spot market, where energy that isn’t committed to buyers is made available for short-notice delivery. With prices soaring, some suppliers to South Asia have simply canceled long-scheduled deliveries in favor of better yields elsewhere, traders say. “Suppliers don’t need to focus on securing their LNG to low affordability markets,” Raghav Mathur, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said. The higher prices they can get on the spot market more than make up for whatever penalties they might pay for shirking planned shipments. And that dynamic is likely to hold for years, Mathur says. Damage caused by global warming, such as the devastating floods in Pakistan, is also wreaking economic havoc on emerging nations, prompting leaders at UN climate talks in Egypt this month to discuss how richer countries can help provide more support. At the same time, Europe is speeding up construction of floating import terminals to bring in more fuel in the future. Germany, Italy, and Finland have secured the plants. The Netherlands started importing LNG from new floating terminals in September. European demand for natural gas is expected to surge by nearly 60% through 2026, according to BloombergNEF. Exporters in Qatar and the United States are now entertaining bids from European importers looking to buy fuel to fill the new capacity. For the first time, emerging nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Thailand are forced to compete on price with Germany and other economies several times their size. “We are borrowing other people’s energy supplies,” “It’s not a great thing.” Usually when there’s a short-term shortage, nations can sign long-term supply contracts, paying a fixed rate for the assurance of reliable deliveries for years. That hasn’t worked this time. Even bids for deliveries starting years into the future are being rejected.
Europe May See Forced De-Industrialization As Result Of Energy Crisis –- The European Union has been quietly celebrating a consistent decline in gas and electricity consumption this year amid record-breaking prices, a cutoff of much of the Russian gas supply, and a liquidity crisis in the energy market. Yet the cause for celebration is dubious: businesses are not just curbing their energy use and continuing on a business-as-usual basis. They are shutting down factories, downsizing, or relocating. Europe may well be on the way to deindustrialization. That the European Union is heading for a recession is now quite clear to anyone watching the indicators. The latest there—eurozone manufacturing activity—fell to the lowest since May 2020.The October reading for S&P Global’s PMI also signaled a looming recession, falling on the month and being the fourth monthly reading below 50—an indication of an economic contraction.In perhaps worse news, however, German conglomerate BASF said last month it would permanently downside in its home country and expand in China. The announcement served as a blow to a government trying to juggle energy shortages with climate goals without extending the lives of nuclear power plants.“The European chemical market has been growing only weakly for about a decade [and] the significant increase in natural gas and power prices over the course of this year is putting pressure on chemical value chains,” said BASF’s chief executive, Martin Brudermueller, as quoted by the FT, in late October.Yet it is worth noting that the energy crisis was not the only reason for BASF’s plans to shrink its presence at home and grow abroad. Increasingly tighter EU regulation was also a factor behind this decision, Brudermueller said.Other industries also seem to have problems with new EU regulations. The trade body for the steel and aluminum industries, which have also suffered significantly from the energy cost inflation, recently proposed that the EU takes a gradual approach with its new Cross-Border Adjustment Mechanism, also known as the import carbon tax.The CBAM was conceived as a way of leveling the playing field for European industrial businesses subjected to strict emission regulation that makes its production costlier compared to the production of countries with laxer emission standards. Yet it would also make important feedstock for the European steel and aluminum industries costlier, too, adding to the pain these industries are already feeling because they are also among the most energy-intensive ones.A tenth of Europe’s crude steel production capacity has already been idled, according to estimates from Jefferies. All zinc smelters have curbed production, and some have shut down. Half of the primary aluminum production has shut down as well. And in fertilizers, 70 percent of factories have been idled because of the energy shortage.Chemical plants are also curbing their activities, ferroalloy furnaces are going cold, and plastics and ceramics manufacturing is shrinking as well.Some of these businesses might choose to eventually relocate to a place with cheaper and more widely available sources of energy, contributing to the deindustrialization process in Europe. As for the best candidate for this relocation, according to some observers, it is the United States, with its abundant gas reserves, rising production, and friendly investment climate.Meanwhile, one thing has become crystal clear: reduced energy consumption in Europe’s industrial sectors is really no cause for celebration. If anything, it is a cause for concern and urgent action on the part of decision makers.
Armenia Doubles Gas Imports From Iran Through 2030 -Armenia gets the bulk of its natural gas from Russia. But ties with Moscow are fraying and Yerevan will soon have more alternatives Iran and Armenia have agreed to double the amount of natural gas that Iran sells to Armenia, and to extend their gas trade agreement to 2030.The deal was made during a visit by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Tehran. The memorandum of understanding was signed on November 1 by Majid Chegeni, Iran’s deputy minister of oil for gas affairs and director of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), and Gnel Sanosyan, Armenia’s minister of territorial administration and infrastructure.Currently, Armenia imports about 365 million cubic meters of natural gas from Iran every year. "Now we export 1 million cubic meters of gas to Armenia daily, which will be doubled based on the new memorandum," Chegeni said.The two sides trade energy based on a 2006 gas-for-electricity barter agreement; Armenia gets one cubic meter of gas from Iran in exchange for three kilowatt hours of electricity produced by thermal plants in Armenia. An expansion of the deal has been in the works for some time. The increase in gas imports has been made possible by Armenia’s increasing capacity to generate electricity, economist Suren Parsyan told Eurasianet. A new thermal power plant constructed by Italian firm Renco came online in 2021 and will be able to supplement the other supplier, the state-run Yerevan Thermal plant. Even with the additional Iranian imports, Russia will remain Armenia’s main gas supplier. Armenia buys over 2 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually, paying $165 per thousand cubic meters. The price for Russian gas went up by $15 per thousand cubic meters in 2019, and that price remains unchanged.In April, Armenia started paying for its Russian gas in rubles, though the rate remains pegged to the dollar price. The supply has not been affected even as the world natural gas markets are in turmoil, with Russia cutting off many European customers and prices fluctuating wildly. In 2021, Armenia paid $414 million to Russia for its gas."Russian gas is still cheaper” than Iranian, Parsyan said. “The issue is that Russia wants money for it, but Iran agrees to be paid in electricity.” Further expansion of the Iran-Armenia energy trade could be in the works in the future.Electricity is currently supplied to Iran through two power lines, but construction of a third high-voltage line has been long delayed and is now scheduled to be completed by the end of 2023.
Oil Executives Warn G7 Price Cap Could Lead To Stranded Tankers - Yves here. Is G7 managing to undo what little progress it had made on key details of how the “fire, aim, ready” Russian oil price cap will work when it goes live on December 5?Get a load of this, from the Financial Times in G7 says Russian oil price cap to be ready ‘in the coming weeks’ a week ago: The G7 decided in September that the cap will work by allowing western companies to provide insurance to seaborne Russian oil exports, so long as the crude has been sold at a price below the cap. “We will finalise implementation of the price cap on seaborne Russian oil in the coming weeks,” the ministers said in a joint statement following two days of talks in Germany….The pledge comes a day after the UK said it would cut off the vital Lloyd’s of London insurance market for ships carrying Russian oil, with a waiver for any countries that sign up for the price cap. Pull out a calendar. The sanctions go live in less than four weeks. Both insurance and international trade are complex, legally and documentation-intensive businesses. Parties need time to prepare procedures and forms. But the G7 big kahunas seem to think if they can reduce a plan to PowerPoint, that’s the same as making it happen. Note that one James O’Brien, head of sanctions co-ordination at the US state department, gave the pink paper airy assurances that the industry was providing input and everyone was a grown up, they can see what is coming. That is clearly contradicted by the OilPrice story below. (Originally published at OilPrice.com)Oil cargo could soon be stranded at sea if G7 leadership fails to get insurers details regarding the upcoming—but undefined—price cap mechanism on Russian crude oil, senior industry executives told Reuters this week.The price cap plan—although it can hardly be called a plan at this point—is set to take effect as of December 5, after Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the United States agreed to hold buyers within the group to purchase crude oil from Russia only if it could be purchased below a set minimum.The plan, if the G7 nail down the details—would seek to limit the revenue Russia receives from the sale of crude oil, while allowing those in need to still purchase oil from the sanctioned country.With just three-and-a-half weeks to go before the measure would go into effect, the industry is clamoring for clarity.One lingering question, according to Reuters’ sources, is that insurers could discover that an oil cargo en route was actually sold at a level that exceeded the agreed-upon price cap. As it stands, insurers would need to pull coverage for the cargo, and the buyer would not accept the delivery—what happens after that has not yet been ironed out, and has the potential to leave cargo stranded at sea, at great environmental risk.“If the time is too short, I think everyone will have a Plan B to de-risk, terminate, stay away, not maybe conclude any new contracts until there is some clarity,” George Voloshin, Global Anti-Financial Crime Expert at ACAMS, the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists told Reuters. “It will probably be quite messy.”
Russia largest oil supplier to India in October, surpasses Iraq : The Tribune India -- Russia became India’s largest oil supplier in October, surpassing traditional top sellers Saudi Arabia and Iraq by supplying an average of 9.35 lakh barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil last month, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa.Russian oil accounted for 22 per cent of India’s total crude imports in October as against 20.5 per cent from Iraq and 16 per cent from Saudi Arabia. Russian oil made up for 0.2 per cent of total crude imports in the year ended March 31, 2022.Before war broke out in Ukraine, India imported an average of 36,255 bpd of crude oil from Russia in December last year. During that month, India imported 10.5 lakh bpd from Iraq and 9.52 lakh bpd from Saudi Arabia.Interestingly, India did not import a single barrel from Russia in January and February but imports surged after Moscow unloaded its oil in the market with heavy discounts. In March, India bought 2.66 lakh barrels, rising gradually to an all-time high of 9.42 lakh barrels in June.
Russia becomes India’s largest source of oil and fifth-biggest trade partner - Russia is reported to have become India’s largest supplier of crude oil in October 2022 as refiners stepped up the purchase of discounted seaborne oil. India is estimated to have imported 1.07 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from that country during the month, up nearly 5 percent from 1.02 million bpd in September, according to cargo tracking and analytical services provider Vortexa. Russia became India’s largest supplier after it bought a record 1.12 million bpd in June, according to the UK-based energy tracking company. Petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri, however, maintained that Iraq remained the largest supplier, even as he earlier this week in an interview with international news channel CNN defended India’s decision to buy cheaper oil from Russia despite sanctions on that country by the West following its invasion of Ukraine. Traditionally, India has met the bulk of its crude oil needs from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, the decision by OPEC+, the Saudi Arabia-led Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that also includes some Central Asian, South American and Asia nations apart from Russia, to cut production and maintain prices at elevated levels was a matter of concern for the Indian government. Its pleas to leading producers in West Asia to consider measures to lower the price of the fuel failed to yield any favourable results. Purchasing Russian oil was not an option at one point given the costs involved in transporting the fuel. As a result, Russia’s share in India’s oil import basket was tiny. Commerce ministry data shows that about 2 percent of crude imports worth $2.47 billion came from Russia in 2021-22. In comparison, that is almost equivalent to the imports from that country in April-May of the current fiscal year. That is in no small measure due to the deep discounts offered by Russian that undercut crude oil from West Asia. As a result, Russia’s share in India’s petroleum crude imports by value zoomed to about 16 percent in the first half of the current fiscal. India bought nearly as much crude by volume from Russia in the April-August period as it had from Saudi Arabia, commerce ministry data showed. Volume data for September has not been published by the commerce ministry yet. The rise in oil imports from Russia also made that country India’s fifth largest trade partner in September. Bilateral trade with Russia is now larger than trade with countries such as Indonesia, Iraq, Singapore, South Korea and Australia. Bilateral trade with Russia is mostly a one-way street, dominated by petroleum crude imports. India’s exports to that country have been small. Indian refiners, mostly those in the private sector, imported petroleum crude worth $14.07 billion between April and September 2022. Imports of petroleum products also rose to $1.52 billion. In the same period of the last financial year, India imported crude and products worth only $1.58 billion.
Singapore gas pipelines so far unaffected by oil tanker grounded nearby: EMA - Pipelines conveying natural gas from Indonesia to Singapore have been unaffected so far by an oil tanker grounded nearby, said the Energy Market Authority on Thursday (Nov 3). The Djibouti-registered tanker Young Yong ran aground off Takong Kecil in Indonesia’s Riau Islands in the Singapore Strait, at around 8.20pm on Oct 26, according to a statement issued by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore on Monday. “The grounded vessel is in the vicinity of subsea pipelines that convey natural gas from South Sumatra and West Natuna, Indonesia to Singapore for power generation and industrial use,” said EMA in a statement on Thursday. “These pipelines are rock-armoured for additional protection. Thus far, gas supply and pressure from these pipelines remain normal.” The agency added it was closely monitoring the situation and prepared to activate the necessary contingency plans to minimise disruptions to electric supply in Singapore. According to Reuters, the tanker has a capacity of about 2 million barrels of crude oil and is almost full. On Monday, MPA said that prior to the tanker’s grounding, its Port Operations Control Centre (POCC) had issued early shallow water warnings to the vessel, highlighting the potential risks. With the vessel grounded in Indonesian waters, Indonesian authorities are leading refloatation efforts for the tanker as well as preventive efforts against possible oil spills, said MPA. It added that as of Monday, navigation in the Singapore Strait remains unaffected and there have been no reports of injuries or oil pollution. “MPA’s patrol crafts are monitoring for any oil spill pollution within Singapore Port Limits,” said the authority. “MPA’s POCC is also issuing safety broadcasts to warn transiting vessels to keep clear of the location of the grounded tanker.”
Vietnam Gas Stations Start To Close Due To Widespread Shortages - In Vietnam, a tangle of reactions to a constrained petroleum market - including government price controls and distributors' decreasing profits - has worsened the country's gasoline shortage, increasing the burden on domestic refineries.While these refineries are moving to increase gasoline production, it will take time for Vietnam to fully solve the fundamental problems behind its petroleum crisis according to Nikkei Asia.The government in mid-October called on two refineries to boost output to the maximum extent possible in a bid to meet domestic demand. The government also asked distributors to speed deliveries to gas stations. PetroVietnam, the country's largest state-run oil company, responded by raising the operation rate of its Dung Quat refinery in the central province of Quang Ngai to 109% from 107%. A refinery executive said the rate can be pushed to 110% or even higher, should the government make further requests.Oil refineries generally save some production capacity even when declaring they are running at 100%. When they crank up production during emergencies, their operation rate can surpass 100%. At the Nghi Son refinery in the northern province of Thanh Hoa, in which Idemitsu Kosan of Japan has a major stake, production at the beginning of the year had to be substantially cut as it failed to procure sufficient funds to import crude oil. Since April, however, the refinery has been operating near full capacity. According to a refinery source, the plant can afford to increase its operation rate.Alas, these measures are too late to fix what is already a major crisis: since early October, several hundred gas stations in Ho Chi Minh City, the country's biggest metropolis, and in surrounding cities in southern Vietnam have had to occasionally suspend operations, saying they have nothing to sell.One reason for this is that distributors have been unable to pass on their rising costs due to what is effectively a government cap on gasoline prices, according to industry sources. Smaller distributors have been hit particularly hard, discouraging them from supplying stations as their profits turn too meager.Another reason gas stations are temporarily closing is the lack of refineries in the southern part of Vietnam, where Ho Chi Minh City is located and which accounts for about 45% of the country's demand for oil and petrochemical products.Even in the capital of Hanoi, some citizens have rushed to gas stations fearing that the fuel shortage will soon spread north. "Another gas station was closed," said Nam, a weary-looking commuter refueling his motorcycle. "Here I at least got gas after waiting for 20 minutes."Since motorcycles are a common means to commute to work and school in the country, the gasoline situation is hampering the daily activities of many Vietnamese.
'Arctic Silk Road' Comes Alive As Russia Sends Oil To China Western energy sanctions against Russia have helped Moscow achieve the second-ever sail of a crude tanker east through the Arctic Circle toward China, a route dubbed 'Arctic Silk Road,' that could one day revolutionize energy trade flows from Russia to Asia because it's about half the time versus R -- ussia's Baltic ports through the Suez Canal. Vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows the Vasily Dinkov, a specialized ice-breaking tanker, departed from Murmansk, a city in northwestern Russia, off the Barents Sea, hauling a cargo of crude. The vessel traversed Russia's northern coast between Oct. 27 - Nov. 4 and entered the Bering Strait, a strait between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans that separates Alaska and Russia, on Nov. 5.As of Tuesday morning, the tanker is full speed ahead off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula. Its final destination is the Chinese port of Rizhao on Nov. 17."The journey is the shortest passage between Europe and east Asia, taking half the time to reach China from Russia's Baltic ports than the conventional route through the Suez Canal," Bloomberg said. Even before the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Moscow, trade flows were already in the beginning stages of shifting towards the Northern Sea Route. In 2017, we noted, "transit routes through the Arctic will assume a certain level of importance vis-à-vis the global geopolitics of Russia and China." Visual Capitalist's Nicholas LePan published a map of all the critical routes and resources in the Arctic in 2019.
Russia Sends Oil Thousands Of Miles Through Arctic Circle Again -Russia sent its second-ever crude oil shipment east through the Arctic Circle toward China, a route that could one day give the country a faster way to buyers in Asia. The Vasily Dinkov, a specialized ice-breaking tanker, is traveling along the Northern Sea Route after loading crude late last month from a storage tanker moored at Murmansk, vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. The ship, hauling a relatively tiny cargo, crossed Russia’s northern coast and passed through the Bering Strait, separating the country from Alaska, over the weekend. It’s due to arrive at the Chinese port of Rizhao on Nov. 17. The route includes a 3,300-mile voyage across the top of Russia and through some of the planet’s harshest sailing conditions where icebergs and freezing conditions are common. The journey is the shortest passage between Europe and east Asia, taking half the time to reach China from Russia’s Baltic ports than the conventional route through the Suez Canal. It’s unclear how significant the logistics tweak will prove for Russia -- that will depend on how weather conditions develop. Until now, the vast majority of the nation’s Arctic Sea production has been gathered on storage tankers at Murmansk from small shuttle tankers. It’s then re-loaded onto bigger vessels to deliver mostly to Europe. That trade will essentially halt in the coming weeks because the European Union is banning most seaborne imports from Russia from Dec. 5. The Vasily Dinkov is a “very advanced” ship with a specialized ice-breaking hull, but there are only eight that can make such trips, according to Richard Matthews, head of research at E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd. in London. As such, the route wouldn’t be particularly viable before summer at the earliest. “It looks unlikely that any significant volumes could be shipped along this route until summer,” he said. That the shipment is taking place is a reminder of how the world is getting warmer. World leaders are gathering in Egypt for the next two weeks to discuss ways to combat climate change.
OPEC raises forecast for world oil demand - Even as the globe transitions to renewable energy, the need for oil is going to climb in the medium and long run, and the sector is going to need billions of dollars in investment to keep up with the demand, according to OPEC's 2022 World Oil Outlook released this week. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais claims that, compared to last year's estimate, "the overall investment number for the oil sector is USD12.1 trillion out to 2045." According to the analysis, global oil consumption would increase by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 103 million bpd the next year. The group's 2023 forecast for the overall demand was revised upward by 1.4 million bpd for the next year. According to OPEC, demand is going to be up by roughly two million bpd by the end of the forecast period, which is now extended to 2027. Due to a "strong focus on energy security issues" and a more sustained recovery of the market, the company has changed its projection.
Oil Prices Are Primed To Spike This Winter - Less than a month from now, an embargo on seaborne Russian crude oil exports to the European Union will come into effect. As a result, global oil supply is set to tighten considerably as Russia is the biggest oil and fuels exporter in the world. And the market is preparing. Hedge funds once again like oil, and are buying it on the futures market in considerable volumes, according to Reuters’ John Kemp.Last week, the buying reached 22 million barrels of Brent crude and 15 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate.India is buying Russian crude at a discount, so it is buying a lot: its share of Middle Eastern oil imports fell to the lowest in 19 months in September, according to new data.Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as India’s number-two supplier after Iraq.China is also buying Russian oil and not giving any indications it’s going to stop when the embargo enters into effect. The same is true of the G7 price cap for Russian crude that should also be coming into effect in a few weeks. China has already stated this will not change its current oil-buying habits.Yet, with an EU embargo and a G7 price cap, what will almost certainly happen by the end of the year is that oil will become more expensive than it is now. Perhaps more worryingly, fuels - especially diesel - will become more expensive as the supply of crude oil tightens further while no new refineries are on the horizon.The fuel situation is going to become a lot more complicated in February, too, when the EU’s Russian fuels embargo comes into effect. Currently, the European Union is importing some 400,000 barrels daily of Russian diesel, according to a Wall Street Journal report, as well as 1.7 million barrels daily of diesel from other suppliers. This 400,000 bpd will need to be replaced come February 5. And it will fuel higher inflation.“Europe’s going to pay whatever these producers ask, and it’s going to be very, very high,” Benedict George, head of diesel pricing at Argus Media, told the WSJ. “If something unexpected happens, the price will go very high, very quickly because no one has anything to fall back on.”Indeed, distillate stocks are below historic averages across regions, notably in the United States, which is also a major exporter of oil products to the European Union. This means prices will remain elevated because the only new refining capacity is in the Middle East and China, and it is limited. Demand for diesel fuel, on the other hand, is consistently strong because the fuel is used across the world for freight transport. According to one oil analyst from S&P Global, who spoke to the WSJ, Europe could import more fuels from the U.S. and China, and reduce exports to South America and Africa. This would help it cope, of course, but it will cause a ripple effect on two different continents.There is also the OPEC+ production cut to consider when looking ahead to the next couple of months in oil. Some expect that the anti-Russian oil embargo will lead to a decline of about 1 million bpd in global supply. OPEC+ is cutting another 1 million bpd from its collective production. That’s 2 million bpd in lower oil supply at a time when production growth in the U.S. shale patch is also slowing down.In this context, institutional traders will likely keep buying crude, whatever the outlook for China’s Covid policies that have served as a major deterrent to oil prices this year. Oil supply is about to tighten, and if the G7 manages to put its price cap into effect and Russia stops selling oil to buyers complying with it, supply will tighten a lot. And life will become even more expensive.
OPEC+ Cuts Could Bring On $100 Crude -Oil’s rise toward $100 a barrel is exposing some of the risks in OPEC+’s controversial production cuts. For about a month, the group’s decision appeared to fulfill its stated aim of stabilizing oil markets, with crude prices steadying against a deteriorating backdrop for fuel demand. Now, at the mid-point between the Oct. 5 OPEC+ meeting and the group’s next gathering in December, prices have moved close to triple digits again as the seasonal demand peak threatens to coincide with additional sanctions on Russian supplies. “I think OPEC+ is super-happy with stabilizing Brent in the $90s,” said Helge Andre Martinsen, senior analyst at DNB Bank ASA in Oslo. But “there is a real risk of over-tightening in the next three-to-five months.” Brent rose to a two-month high of $99.56 a barrel on Monday, before paring gains. The January futures contract retreated 0.5% to $97.39 a barrel as of 12:35 p.m. in London on Tuesday. The run-up in prices, just as the US votes in midterm elections, threatens to further inflame relations between Joe Biden and Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s defacto leader. The president has fiercely criticized the kingdom for the supply curbs, accusing the long-time American ally of abetting fellow OPEC+ member Russia in its war on Ukraine. In the weeks following the decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to cut output by 2 million barrels a day, the political fallout was intense. But initial trends in crude prices and demand gave some vindication to the strategy, which was spearheaded by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Oil demand has proved to be “significantly lower” than expectations, according to Russell Hardy, chief executive of Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent crude trader. Demand in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, is unlikely to recover from strict pandemic lockdowns until the second half of 2023, Hardy said in a Bloomberg television interview. “We’re in a world where demand is sloshing downward,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. “There’s ample supply in the market.” Instead of the potential shortage that was being predicted a few months ago, global markets now faced a surplus this quarter, according to OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al Ghais. Price differentials in key Asian markets have deteriorated as China re-confirmed its tough anti-Covid measures. The International Monetary Fund has warned that “the worst is yet to come” for the global economy.
Saudi Arabia Cuts Asian Oil Prices As Growth Slows - Saudi Arabia lowered most oil prices for Asia, in a sign of the regional market weakening with the global economic slowdown. Rising interest rates and strict virus-related lockdowns in China have hit energy consumption, causing a 20% drop in crude futures since June. State-controlled Saudi Aramco cut its key Arab Light grade for December sales to Asia, its main market, by 40 cents to $5.45 a barrel above the regional benchmark. That was in line with refiners and traders’ prediction of a 35-cent drop, according to a Bloomberg survey. Yet Brent’s still trading above $95 a barrel because of the prospect of a fall in Russian exports from once the European Union tightens sanctions on Dec. 5, part of the bloc’s efforts to punish Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine. OPEC+ -- a 23-nation producers alliance led by Riyadh and Moscow -- also decided to reduce output from this month. Aramco’s official selling prices remain historically high amid the tightness of the physical market, in which actual barrels are bought and sold. “It’s a tale of two markets,” Joe McMonigle, head of the International Energy Forum, told Bloomberg TV this week, adding that Russian supply could fall by between 1 million and 3 million barrels a day. “The physical markets are very tight. The paper markets are pricing in bad economic news and a bad recession.” For Asia, Aramco reduced its medium and heavy oil grades to the lowest level in at least nine months. The company mostly raised prices for European buyers, who may struggle to find alternative supplies once the near embargo on imports from Russia is in place. Saudi Arabia sells most of its oil under long-term contracts to Asia, pricing for which is reviewed each month. China, Japan, South Korea, and India are the biggest buyers.
Oil Slips On Demand Concerns But Holds Near $100 A Barrel As Dollar Weakens (Reuters) -Oil prices edged lower on Monday on demand concerns linked to China's stringent COVID containment policy but remained close to $100 a barrel on support from a weaker dollar and recovering Chinese crude imports. Brent crude futures fell by 39 cents, or 0.4% to $98.18 a barrel by 1306 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 47 cents, or 0.51%, to $92.14. Both contracts dropped by more than $1 a barrel earlier in the session after Chinese health officials at the weekend reiterated their commitment to strict COVID containment measures, dashing hopes of a rebound in oil demand from the world's top crude importer. Brent and WTI rose last week, climbing 2.9% and 5.4%, respectively on speculation about a possible end to COVID-19 lockdowns despite the lack of any announced changes. However, prices pared gains on stronger risk sentiment, news of recovering Chinese crude imports and the U.S. dollar weakening against against other currencies, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Both contracts remain well above $90 a barrel, with Brent hovering nearer $100. The U.S. dollar sank against the euro on Monday and sterling was supported by risk-on sentiment and a rally in European stock markets. While China's imports and exports contracted unexpectedly in October, its crude oil imports rebounded to the highest level since May. Oil prices have also been underpinned by expectations of tighter supplies when the European Union's embargo on Russia's seaborne crude exports starts on Dec. 5, even though refineries worldwide are ramping up output. U.S. oil refiners this quarter will run their plants at breakneck rates, near or above 90% of capacity. China's largest private refiner Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical Co (ZPC), meanwhile, is raising diesel output. Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Co (KIPIC) said on Sunday that the first phase of its Al Zour refinery has started commercial operations, the KUNA state news agency reported.
Oil Falls Back After Nearing $100 on Weak Dollar as Markets Play CPI Game The dollar’s tumble on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate pivot brought oil to within cents of $100 a barrel on Monday, vindicating market bulls who’ve been beating since last week the drum on triple-digit pricing. By the close though, crude squandered its midmorning gains and fell further to settle the day in the negative, exhibiting the choppy trade typical before weekly oil inventory data due from the U.S. government. The Weekly Petroleum Status Reports released the last two Wednesdays by the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, have been fairly supportive of longs in the market. China’s affirmation at the weekend of its commitment to a strict COVID containment approach also offset any bullish fervor emerging from news of recovering Chinese crude imports in the world’s largest importing nation. Oil bulls, meanwhile, are banking on the dollar to continue falling ahead of this week’s release of the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, by the Commerce Department on Thursday. With inflation having trended at four-decade highs for a year, some think the forthcoming CPI report for October could show a meaningful retreat in price pressures, reflecting the interest rate hike of 375 basis points by the Fed from just 25 points in March. Economists expect the annual reading for the CPI in October at 8.0%, versus September’s 8.2%, and the monthly rate at 0.6% versus the previous 0.4%. But if both the annual and monthly readings come in sharply lower, the Fed will likely adopt a rate hike of just 50 basis points in December from the four straight increases of 75-bp between June and November. The dollar has been tumbling on that notion. A weak dollar is supportive for crude and other commodities priced in the greenback as it lowers transaction/acquisition costs for users of the euro and other non-dollar currencies. The Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, was at under the key 110 mark on Monday versus Thursday’s three-week high of 113.035. “You have to think we need two good [inflation] readings for the Fed to scale back its [rate] expectations and give markets the festive cheer they so clearly want,” “Until then, more choppy and confused trade may be what we get.” New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled down 82 cents, or 0.9%, at $91.79 a barrel. The session high for the so-called WTI was $93.74. London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled down 65 cents, or 0.7%, at $97.92 after a session peak at $99.55. Aside from hopes for a Fed rate pivot, the call for crude prices to be above $100 is underpinned by expectations of tighter supplies when the European Union's embargo on Russia's seaborne crude exports starts on Dec. 5 — even though refineries worldwide are ramping up output. “What you’d normally never hear is how the oil industry somehow fixes itself regardless of its structural deficits to supply almost every buyer of the crude that’s needed,” “And to those who think the Fed needs to retreat on rate hikes, just ask yourselves this: If oil goes well beyond $100, how in the world would inflation go down meaningfully given the energy input in almost everything we consume? You don’t need a Harvard degree in economics to ask that question.”
Oil Eases as USD Regains Ground Ahead of Midterms - West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange extended losses into early morning Tuesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as investors positioned ahead of the midterm elections in the United States that could see Republicans taking control of one or both chambers of Congress, increasing the risk for policy gridlock over the next two years. The likelihood of a Republican sweep in the midterm elections and a divided U.S. government over the second half of President Joe Biden's term in office helped the U.S. Dollar Index gain some ground Tuesday, while pressuring the front-month WTI contract. The U.S. dollar jumped 0.26% against the basket of foreign currencies to above 110.2, while WTI for December delivery, which has an inverse relationship to the greenback, slipped $0.68 to trade just above $91 barrel (bbl). Polls suggest Republicans will win a majority in the House where all 435 seats, 220 of which are currently held by Democratic lawmakers, are up for grabs on Tuesday, and pick up as many as three seats in the Senate, ensuring Republican control over both chambers of Congress. Democrats losing control of Congress will almost certainly limit the room for proactive policymaking and lead to a muted response to the headwinds facing the U.S. economy. Bloomberg economists see a 100% probability for the U.S. to enter a recession over the next 12 months as the Federal Reserve is aggressively raising interest rates with inflation running at a four-decade high. While an economic downturn in 2023 is almost certain, the odds of a recession hitting sooner have also gone up. The model forecasts the likelihood of a recession within 11 months at 73%, up from 30%, and the 10-month probability rose to 25% from 0%. Against this backdrop, investors will get an update on a key inflation metric this week, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index for October scheduled for release on Thursday morning. Consensus calls for headline inflation to moderate to 7.9% from a year earlier, down from September's year-over-year increase of 8.2%. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is projected to come in at 6.5%, little changed from last month's 6.6%. Further pressuring the oil complex, China's health officials on Monday rebuffed the reports suggesting Beijing is prepared to loosen COVID-19 restrictions next year, dashing hopes for stronger demand growth in Asia. The country reported 5,436 new cases on Sunday, up 27% from the day before and the most since May 2, when Shanghai was in the midst of its months-long lockdown. "Previous practices have proved that our prevention and control plans and a series of strategic measures are completely correct," Hu Xiang, an official at the National Health Commission's Disease Prevention and Control Bureau, told reporters. "The policies are also the most economical and effective." While this containment strategy has saved lives, it has also clouded China's outlook, exacerbated supply-chain disruptions, and kept millions under lockdown for months. Near 8:00 a.m. EST, ICE January Brent fell $0.45/bbl to $97.47/bbl. NYMEX December RBOB futures declined $0.0140 to $2.6391 per gallon, and December ULSD futures advanced $0.0294 to $3.8105 per gallon.
Oil Falls on Demand Fears as Covid Cases Rise in China -Oil fell as China’s renewed commitment to strict Covid-19 policies overshadowed a global market backdrop of shrinking fuel inventories. West Texas Intermediate fell 3.1% to settle below $89 barrel, while Brent futures traded below $96 barrel. The week started on a sour note as China reaffirmed its commitment to its Covid Zero strategy, which includes demand-sapping movement curbs and lockdowns. Despite the fall, oil has remained within a relatively narrow range, with lackluster trading volumes rendering futures especially susceptible to macro-market moves. Momentum for buying has stalled at the moment, while the market enters a wait-and-see mode, traders said. Meanwhile, the outlook for fuel inventories has tightened after OPEC+ recently slashed output and ahead of ban on Russian exports. Dwindling fuel stockpiles has bolstered the global benchmark’s recent rally toward $100, and Dated Brent --the world’s most important physical oil price, rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since August, according to S&P Global Platts which publishes the benchmark. “Brent crude is hovering below the $100 a barrel level for now but it seems the oil market is convinced it is one headline away from breaking above that key barrier,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “Energy traders still remain confident that the oil market is still going to remain tight throughout this winter even if China’s reopening is slightly delayed.” WTI for December delivery fell $2.88 to settle at $88.91 a barrel in New York. Brent for January settlement fell $2.36 to $95.36 a barrel.
Oil down 3% despite weak dollar; U.S. inventories awaited - Oil prices tumbled 3% on Tuesday despite a weaker dollar as Chinese cities widened their Covid dragnet and as players on crude futures markets tried to limit exposure ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data due on Wednesday.Other than Tuesday’s mild rally on Wall Street, most U.S. markets saw dampened trading as investors awaited the outcome of the midterm election where President Joe Biden and Democrats face challenge to their control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.Nonpartisan forecasts and opinion polls suggested a strong chance of Republicans winning a House majority and a tight race for Senate control, Reuters reported. A surprise victory for Democrats, however, could raise concerns about tech-sector regulation as well as budget spending that could add to already-high inflation.Investors are also awaiting a key inflation reading due on Thursday, which is expected to show easing in consumer prices and provide further clues on whether the Federal Reserve could soften its campaign of aggressive U.S. rate hikes.New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled Tuesday’s trading down $2.88, or 3.14%, at $88.91 per barrel, extending the previous session’s near 1% slide. The session low was $88.69.London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled down $2.56, or 2.6%, at $95.36 after a session low at $95.13. On Monday, Brent slipped by 0.7%.Crude prices fell as reports of a spike in new coronavirus cases in several Chinese cities, especially Guangzhou, the global manufacturing hub that officials are trying to prevent from becoming China's latest COVID-19 epicenter, to avoid a Shanghai-style multi-month lockdown.The drop in oil markets came despite the dollar’s tumble to a six-week low and a slump in Treasury yields amid the higher risk appetite as investors took the U.S. midterm election in their stride and braced for Thursday's pivotal Consumer Price Index report for October.Economists are expecting the CPI reading to show an annual increase of 8.0% and a monthly growth of 0.6%.Market watchers generally expect price pressures to have cooled from the 40-year highs seen in June, after a barrage of outsize rate hikes by the Fed.Since March, the central bank has raised interest rates six times in a bid to containinflation, with four jumbo-sized hikes of 75 basis points from June onwards that brought rates to a peak of 400 basis points from just 25 in March.If the October CPI report signals a definitive retreat in inflation, the Fed could revert to a rate hike of the 50-basis points that it used in May. Such a drop would be positive for oil and other dollar-denominated commodities though as it lowers transaction/acquisition cost for users of the euro and other non-dollar currencies. The Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, remained below the key 110 mark on Tuesday versus Thursday’s three-week high of 113.035. The caveat for oil from a lower CPI report is that crude prices should not rise beyond $100 a barrel if one wants to keep a lid on inflation — given the influence of energy on almost all economic activity. Oil market participants were also on the lookout for U.S. weekly inventory data, due after market settlement from API, or The American Petroleum Institute.
WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Large Unexpected Crude Build -- Despite ongoing dollar weakness, oil prices tumbled for a second straight day as China Zero-COVID easing hopes faded and the crypto meltdown today appeared to hit every asset class for a period..."The lack of a concrete timeline or any real details about plans to reopen the Chinese economy and move away from the still very strict and economically crippling restrictions weighed on the energy market into the afternoon," wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research.Of course, traders are also waiting for any signals on supply/demand tomorrow with tonight's API report offering some early insight...API
- Crude +5.618mm (-700k exp)
- Cushing -1.848mm - biggest draw since May
- Gasoline +2.553mm (-1.2mm exp)
- Distillates -1.773mm (-900k exp)
Expectations were for a small crude draw on top of last week's surprisingly large draw but instead API reported a significant build of 5.618mm barrels. Additionally Cushing saw a major draw and Distillates stocks dropped again... WTI was holding just above $89 ahead of the API data and extended losses below the low of the day after the surprise build...
Oil Prices Decline On US Crude Inventory Build, China Covid Worries (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Wednesday after industry data showed that U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected and on concerns that a rebound in COVID-19 cases in top importer China would hurt fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell 74 cents, or 0.7%, to $94.62 a barrel by 1201 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 76 cents, or 0.8%, to $88.15 a barrel. The benchmarks fell around 3% on Tuesday. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by about 5.6 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 4, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures, while seven analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories would rise by about 1.4 million barrels. Last week, the market had latched onto hopes that China might be moving toward relaxing COVID-19 restrictions but over the weekend health officials said they would stick to their "dynamic-clearing" approach to new infections. COVID-19 cases in Guangzhou and other Chinese cities have surged, with millions of residents of the global manufacturing hub being required to have COVID-19 tests on Wednesday. "With that (China reopening) narrative getting pushed back, coupled with a considerable build on U.S. inventory data, implying dimming U.S. demand, the recessionary crews are back out in full force this morning in Asia," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a note. In another bearish sign, API data showed gasoline inventories rose by about 2.6 million barrels, against analysts' forecasts for a 1.1 million drawdown. The market will be looking out for official U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration due at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) for a further view on demand in the world's biggest economy. Meanwhile, supply concerns remain. "In addition to ongoing OPEC+ supply cuts, Russian oil supply should fall as the EU ban on Russian crude and refined products comes into effect," ING commodities strategists said in a note. The EU will ban Russian crude imports by Dec. 5 and Russian oil products by Feb. 5, in retaliation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation".
WTI Extends Losses On US Crude Build, Production Ramp - Oil prices are extending their losses this morning after last night's bigger than expected crude build reported by API and perhaps on increasing odds of gridlock in Washington meaning less oil industry pressure from the left. Also, no signs at all from China of any easing in their Zero-COVID policies, with cases in Beijing hitting the highest in more than five months despite the nation’s program of lockdowns and mass testing, is not helping oil bulls.“For now, the market worries about fresh lockdowns hurting sentiment and demand, and together with the API storage report it has triggered some light selling,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank.“Especially after the failed attempt to break higher through recent highs earlier in the week.”The official supply/demand data this morning is key for where we go next:"Inventory numbers should be in focus this week as the U.S. will aim to extend last week's small increase to distillate stocks, which remain persistently low," said Robbie Fraser, manager, global research and analytics at Schneider Electric, in a daily note."Strong export demand has kept diesel in short supply, and some additional inventories would be welcomed ahead of a heating season that could carve out more room for diesel as global natural gas supply remains tight," said Fraser. DOE
- Crude +3.925mm (-700k exp)
- Cushing -923k - biggest draw since June
- Gasoline -900k (-1.2mm exp)
- Distillates -521k (-900k exp)
API reported a major crude build overnight (despite analyst expectations for a small draw) and the official data confirmed it with a 3.925mm bbl build. Cushing stocks fell by the most since June and Gasoline and Distillates inventories drewdown...
Oil Futures Fell for the Third Straight Day on Wednesday - Oil futures fell for the third straight day on Wednesday after a weekly EIA report showed a large increase in commercial crude oil inventories that was mostly due to more government sales of crude oil from the nation’s strategic reserves to the private sector. A week-on-week uptick in US oil production to 12.1M barrels a day also helped to boost supplies. On the fuels side, inventories of both gasoline and distillates declined from the previous week, and implied US gasoline demand rose to 9M barrels a day. A drop in US stock markets is adding to the selling pressure on crude. Ongoing concerns over the impact of China’s zero COVID policy on that country’s demand for oil also added pressure on oil prices. WTI for December delivery lost $3.08 per barrel, or 3.46% to $85.83. Brent Crude for January delivery lost $2.71 per barrel, or 2.84% to $92.65. RBOB Gasoline for December delivery lost 9.21 cents per gallon, or 3.49% to $2.5446, while ULSD for December delivery lost 11.44 cents per gallon, or 3.03% to $3.6563. The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said oil prices "flirting with $100" were a real risk for the global economy, adding that he was surprised by the OPEC+ decision to cut output at its October 5th meeting. He said "Those countries (oil producers) in the past took decisions which did comfort the oil markets...this decision may put further upward pressure on inflation and weaken the global economy." He said “The recent decision of OPEC+ to cut the production by 2 million bpd was definitely not helpful.” He added that the move is fueling inflation, especially in developing countries, and may require a “rethink”.Iraq's Oil Ministry said it respects the OPEC+ agreement to achieve global market stability, and wants to raise the "value or revenue" of a barrel of oil in a way that works for both producers and consumers.European diesel imports are on track to reach 4.9 million tons in November, down from about 6.4 million tons in October. Refinitiv reported that about 40% of the November imports are expected to come from Russia, relatively unchanged from October’s level.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 518,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 11th, increasing available refining capacity by 253,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to decrease to 347,000 bpd in the week ending November 18th.Chevron said an isolated fire inside its 269,000 bpd El Segundo refinery in California was extinguished on Tuesday and did not occur at any of the facility’s major processing units. It said the fire did not impact the refinery’s ability to supply petroleum products to its customers in the region. Flint Hills Resources LLC reported emissions from crude unit fugitives F-40 at its Corpus Christi, Texas West refinery. It reported that it discovered a pinhole leak from a 16-inch diesel line at the crude unit on November 6th.
Oil down 3% again on U.S. stockpile build, IEA warns against $100 a barrel -- U.S. oil inventories have been volatile of late and crude prices have been overreaching on their way up and down, depending on whether the data shows a stockpile build or drop. But when the head of the International Energy Agency, or IEA, cautions about the damage $100 a barrel can do to the economy, especially when U.S. crude stockpiles come in three times more than forecast, expect the “damage” to oil bulls to be worse. Oil prices fell 3% for a second day in a row to show a net loss of 7% on the week — that wiped out all of last week’s 5% gain — as IEA chief Fatih Birol’s warning about the hazards of triple-digit pricing coincided with a large crude stockpile build reported by the U.S. government. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled Wednesday’s trading down $3.08, or 3.5%, at $85.83 per barrel, extending the near 4% slide from two previous sessions. WTI hit a three-month high of $93.74 on Monday. London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled down $2.71, or 2.8%, at $92.65, adding to the 3.2% drop between Monday and Tuesday. Earlier this week, Brent came within cents of touching $100, with a session high of $99.56. Crude inventories jumped by 3.925 million barrels during the week to Nov. 4, the Washington-based Energy Information Administration, or EIA (not to be confused with Birol’s Paris-based IEA), said. The market had expected a build of 1.36M barrels instead. In the previous week to Oct. 28, crude inventories saw a drop of 3.115M in stockpiles. Distillate stockpiles fell by 0.521M barrels last week versus a forecast drop of 0.8M. In the previous week, distillates saw a build of 0.427M. Gasoline inventories, meanwhile, dropped by 0.899M barrels, against expectations for a draw of 1.08M barrels, the EIA said. In the previous week, gasoline saw a drop of 1.257M in stockpiles. Total U.S. gasoline consumption for last week was impressive at 9.011M barrels per day, versus the previous week’s 8.66M bpd. But other key statistics like crude exports and production were disappointing. Crude exports have stabilized at around 3.5M barrels per day from the 5M bpd peak of two weeks ago, and withdrawals from the SPR appeared to be their last gasp of around 3M barrels per week. U.S. crude production, meanwhile, has jumped to 12.1M bpd, up 200,000 from the previous week. Birol, the executive director at the IEA, added to oil’s bearish case when he said prices flirting with $100 per barrel were “a real risk to the global economy”. “OPEC+ production cuts could push inflation even higher and weaken the global economy,” Birol added. The IEA chief’s warning touched on an area that had been overlooked of late as OPEC+, officially led by Saudi Arabia, with allies steered by Russia, pushed ahead with maximizing revenue for its oil by announcing a production cut of 2M barrels per day from this month even as global crude supplies were in a structural deficit. Oil bulls’ support for OPEC+ isn’t surprising as they typically support every supply crunch — real or artificial. But many are also hoping inflation would cool enough for the U.S. Federal Reserve to step away from the jumbo-sized rate hikes it has been doing since March.
Inflation in the U.S. Last Month Was Lower Than Expected - Oil futures erased early losses on Thursday, moving higher after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data for October showing that inflation in the U.S. last month was lower than expected. Over the last 12 months, the CPI increased by 7.7% before seasonal adjustment, which again was lower than the 7.9% expected annual inflation for October. The lower-than-expected inflation data instilled confidence in the markets, including the oil market, that the Fed may have reasons to pivot from the aggressive interest rate hikes in recent months. A potentially slower pace of interest rate increases could reinvigorate economic growth and oil demand growth. Speculation about a Fed pivot on interest rate hikes to tame inflation sent oil prices higher at the end of last week. WTI for December delivery gained 64 cents per barrel, or 0.75% to $86.47. Brent for January delivery gained $1.02 per barrel, or 1.10% to $93.6. RBOB Gasoline for December delivery gained 2.17 cents per gallon, or 0.85% to $2.5663. ULSD for December delivery lost 8.69 cents per gallon, or 2.38% to $3.5694.According to the General Administration of Customs, China’s diesel exports increased significantly in September after being severely restricted over the previous 13 months. Exports increased to 1.73 million tons or 430,000 bpd in September, up from an average of 460,000 tons per month or 114,000 bpd between August 2021 and August 2022. Reuters reported that increased exports will provide some relief amid a global diesel shortage, but are unlikely to be enough to stabilize and rebuild global inventories, or offset any future disruption as a result of sanctions on Russia’s fuel exports. Saudi Aramco told at least four refinery customers in North Asia they will receive full contract volumes of crude oil in December. It is maintaining a steady supply to Asia despite the decision by OPEC+ to lower the group’s target by 2 million bpd starting this month. The Benicia Fire Department reported that Valero’s 145,000 bpd Benicia, California refinery flared for a short period after experiencing a mechanical issue. The second largest crude distillation unit, a reformer and a lube oil hydrocracker completed their restart and were operating at Motiva Enterprises’ 636,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery. Motiva’s 81,000 bpd fluid catalytic cracking unit was operating normally on Thursday after a malfunction on Wednesday. U.S consumer prices increased less than expected in October and underlying inflation appeared to have peaked, which would allow the Federal Reserve to dial back its interest rate hikes. The U.S. Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4% in October after increasing by the same margin in September. In the 12 months through October, the CPI increased 7.7% after rising 8.2% on the same basis in September. Excluding the food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3% in October after gaining 0.6% in September. The so-called core CPI is being driven by surging rents as soaring mortgage rates price out prospective buyers. The core CPI increased 6.3% in the 12 months through October. The core CPI increased 6.6% on a year-on-year basis in September.
Oil up modestly on chance for fed pivot; China Covid limits gains -- Crude prices climbed out of a three-day hole as U.S. inflation at 9-month lows suggested the Federal Reserve could do a smaller rate hike in December that could benefit businesses as a whole, including oil drillers and refiners. But while most commodities rallied strongly Thursday on the prospect of the Fed rate pivot — gold, for instance, gained more than 2% as the dollar fell its most in a day in 11 years — crude was one of the laggards. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, settled up 64 cents, or 0.75%, at $86.47 per barrel, after a 7% slide between Monday and Wednesday. Just before this week’s tumble, the U.S. crude benchmark hit a three-month high of $93.74 on Monday. London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled up $1.02, or 1.1%, at $93.67, after a 6% drop in the past three days. On Monday, Brent came within cents of touching $100, with a session high of $99.56. Commodities saw a broad-based rally on Thursday as the Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, fell 1.9% to hover at the 108 mark versus last Thursday’s three-week high above 113. Investing.com data showed it to be the dollar’s biggest percentage loss in a day since Oct. 27, 2011 when it also fell 1.9%. OIl’s relatively modest rise was due to continued horror stories on Covid infections and lockdowns in top oil importing country China. In the capital of China’s export-heavy Guangdong province, new coronavirus cases exploded, raising fears of late that the area could see the type of tough curbs placed on Shanghai earlier this year. “To the oil market, the damage from China lockdowns far outweigh the benefits from any easing in Fed rates,” China Covid fears aside, oil also saw an outsized price drop on Wednesday after data showing U.S. crude inventories jumping by almost 4.0 million barrels during the week to Nov. 4, about three times more than forecast. On the inflation front, the U.S. Consumer Price Index, or CPI, expanded by just 7.7% over a 12-month period, versus a growth of 8% forecast by economists and against the previous yearly growth of 8.2% to September. Historical data showed it to be the lowest annual reading for inflation since January. Prior to October, both the White House and economic policy-makers at the Federal Reserve had struggled to contain inflation, with the annual reading for the CPI hitting a four-decade high of 9.1% in June. In its bid to control inflation, the Fed has added 375 basis points to interest rates since March via six rate hikes. Prior to that, interest rates were at a peak of just 25 basis points as the central bank cut rates to nearly zero after the global outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The Fed’s rate hikes have pushed up borrowing costs, adding to higher overall expenses for consumers, some of whom have begun to rein in their spending. U.S. consumer confidence, one of the pillars of the economy, hit three-month lows in October, according to The Conference Board, which groups public and private corporations that track and publish economic data. The Fed, which executed four back-to-back jumbo rate hikes of 75 basis points from June through November, is contemplating a more modest 50-basis point increase in December. The latest CPI reading might enable the central bank to do that, economists said.
Oil prices jump by over 2% as China eases some coronavirus restrictions - Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Friday after health authorities in China, the top global crude importer, eased some of the country's heavy COVID curbs. Brent crude futures rose $2.39, or 2.6%, to $96.06 a barrel by 0745 GMT, extending a 1.1% rise in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $2.24, or 2.6%, to $88.71 a barrel, after climbing 0.8% in the previous session. The easing curbs include shortening quarantine times for close contacts of cases and inbound travellers by two days, as well as eliminating a penalty on airlines for bringing in infected passengers. "Oil traders are applauding the news. The key for oil markets is to continue watching developments closely for this and further marginal positive changes in the government's zero-COVID stance," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. The move towards liberalising the COVID-zero policy will provide a springboard for oil markets, given that lockdowns hurt mobility and oil prices more than economic activity, he said. Prices also picked up on Friday after milder-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced hopes that the Federal Reserve would slow down rate increases, boosting chances of a soft landing for the world's biggest economy. A weaker U.S. dollar also supported oil prices as it makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Still, the benchmark oil contracts were headed for weekly declines of more than 1% due to rising U.S. oil inventories, and lingering fears over capped fuel demand in China amid an uptick in daily COVID cases. China's COVID-19 case load soared to its highest since the lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year. Both Beijing and Zhengzhou reported record daily cases. Besides work-from-home orders reducing mobility and fuel demand, travel across China remained subdued as people wanted to avoid the risk of being caught up in quarantine, ANZ Research analysts said in a note.
Crude settles higher; Yellen says India can buy Russian oil outside price cap | Arab News - Oil prices settled higher on Friday but fell week-on-week after health authorities in China eased some of the country’s heavy COVID-19 curbs, raising hopes for improved economic activity and demand in the world’s top crude importer. Brent crude futures settled up $2.32 at $95.99 a barrel, extending a 1.1 percent rise from the previous session but falling 2.6 percent on the week. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up $2.49, or 2.9 percent, at $88.96 a barrel, after climbing 0.8 percent in the previous session but down nearly 4 percent on the week. The US is happy for India to continue buying as much Russian oil as it wants, including at prices above a G7-imposed price cap mechanism, if it steers clear of Western insurance, finance and maritime services bound by the cap, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday. The cap would still drive global oil prices lower while curbing Russia’s revenues, Yellen said in an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of a conference on deepening US-Indian economic ties. Russia will not be able to sell as much oil as it does now once the EU halts imports without resorting to the capped price or significant discounts from current prices, Yellen added. “Russia is going to find it very difficult to continue shipping as much oil as they have done when the EU stops buying Russian oil,” Yellen said. “They’re going to be heavily in search of buyers. And many buyers are reliant on Western services.” India is now Russia’s largest oil customer other than China. Yellen told Reuters that India and private Indian oil companies “can also purchase oil at any price they want as long as they don’t use these Western services and they find other services. And either way is fine.” Oil and gas producers Canada and Nigeria have become the latest countries to tackle the potent greenhouse gas methane with laws to rein in emissions in the fossil fuel energy sector. The announcements came as the US on Friday said it would expand its own rules to require oil and gas drillers to find and fix leaks of methane at all of the country’s well sites. Methane has more than 80 times the planet-warming potency of CO2 in its first 20 years, but breaks down faster in the atmosphere, making it a high-value target for near-term efforts to slow climate change. Canada said its new rules would target a 75 percent cut in methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by 2030, including through a proposed monthly requirement for oil and gas companies to find and fix methane leaks in their infrastructure. “It’s kind of a big deal for us, we are the fourth biggest producer of oil and gas. So, we have a big responsibility, but it’s also a big challenge,” Canadian Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said at the UN climate summit on Friday. Nigeria, among the world’s top 10 methane emitters, announced new rules for how to reduce emissions in its oil and gas industry. They include requirements for leak detection and repair, limits to flaring and controls on venting equipment. Methane is the main component of natural gas, and leaches into the atmosphere from oil wells and leaky gas pipelines.
Iranian Oil Pipeline Catches Fire As Mass Protests Continue -A fire erupted at an oil pipeline in the southwest of Iran this weekend in an incident authorities are still investigating amid continued anti-government protests and clashes in the country following the death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by the morality police. According to Iranian media and videos shared on Twitter, an oil pipeline in the southwestern Iranian port city of Bandar Mahshahr caught fire on Sunday, the Jerusalem Post reported, noting that neither the regime nor semiofficial media in Iran had reported that sabotage may have caused the fire.The fire has caused some damage, but no casualties have been reported, according to Iranian news agency IRNA quoted by the Jerusalem Post.The anti-government protests in the Islamic Republic started in September after Mahsa Amini died of injuries three days after being detained by morality police for not wearing a headscarf properly, as dictated by Iran’s strict rules on women’s wear. The protests continue, and even oil workers in Iran have joined them, while the government is trying to crack down on the biggest mass dissent in the country in decades.In October, dozens of Iranian oil workers joined nationwide protests, and striking petrochemical workers at the Asaluyeh refinery chanted “death to the dictator” and walked off the complex on October 11, a video shared on Twitter by Bloomberg showed. The workers also set tires on fire to block the road for Iran’s security forces.The Iranian government has blamed the protests on Iran’s enemies, including the United States, saying it’s a ploy run by armed dissidents, among others. Protesters have continued to brave the harsh crackdown by security forces, burning pictures of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling for the downfall of the clerical establishment, and chanting “Death to the Dictator.” Iranian authorities have, however, denied that the protests are in any way related to nuclear talks.
Iraq Daily Roundup: 11 Killed - Antiwar.com Original -- At least 11 people were killed, and another was wounded in recent violence:Two Turkish soldiers were killed in a bomb blast in northern Iraq. A Turkish soldier was killed during a Kurdistan Workers’ Party (P.K.K.) attack.Near Bani Saad, the body of a security member was found.Gunmen killed a truck driver near Abu Saida.In Baghdad, a dumped body was discovered.Three ISIS members were killed during an operation on Mount Badush. One of them was described as an emir. Special Forces killed two ISIS members and wounded another in Chamchamal.
US To Establish Another New Military Base In Northeast Syria -The US-led international coalition forces operating in northeastern Syria intend to establish a new military base in their controlled areas in the countryside of Raqqa. Local sources said that a convoy of US forces, including several armored military vehicles, arrived in Raqqa city as part of preparations to install a new base in the area.On the field, the illegal troops began transferring the logistical equipment and necessary gear to the specified location, coinciding with heavy surveillance drone activity. The US army and international coalition occupy at least 28 declared military sites in Syria, distributed over three provinces, mainly Hasakah (17 sites), Deir Ezzor (nine locations), and Homs (two areas). The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) released photographs showing the construction of a new base near Al-Raqqa Bridge on the Euphrates River, south of the city. The distribution of Washington’s illegal bases resembles the cordon surrounding the sources of oil and gas located east of the Euphrates River, representing most of Syria’s underground wealth.
Syria: Parties to the Conflict Aggravate Cholera Epidemic (HRW) - Turkish authorities are exacerbating an acute water crisis that is believed to have given rise to the deadly cholera outbreak spreading across Syria and into nearby countries, Human Rights Watch said today. All parties to the conflict need to ensure the right to clean water and health for everyone in Syria. The Turkish authorities have failed to ensure an adequate water flow downstream into the Syrian-held portion of the Euphrates river and a consistent water supply from Allouk water station, a critical source of water located in an area of northern Syria under their control, to areas held by Kurdish-led forces in northeast Syria. Discriminatory diversion of aid and essentialservices by the Syrian government as well as ongoing security and access constraints across all of Syria inhibit an adequate humanitarian and emergency response in affected parts of the country.“This devastating cholera outbreak will not be the last water-borne disease to impact Syrians if the country’s severe water problems are not immediately addressed, particularly in the northeast,” said Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. “Turkey can, and should, immediately stop aggravating Syria’s water crisis.”The Syrian Health Ministry declared a cholera outbreak on September 10, 2022, with the former UN Humanitarian Relief Coordinator Imran Riza calling it a “serious threat to the Syrian people” and to the entire Middle East region. As of November 1, the World Health Organization had recorded 81 deaths from cholera in Syria and more than 24,000 suspected cases. Cholera has since spread to Lebanon, a country enduring multiple crises.Human Rights Watch spoke to 10 humanitarian workers at 5 international aid organizations working in and on Syria. They highlighted the water crisis, the shortage of medical supplies to the northeast, and the lack of consolidated information from all regions of Syria as major obstacles to an effective response. Researchers also reviewed internal reports by humanitarian organizations on the water crisis from May 2021 onward and on the cholera outbreak more recently.More than 10 years of conflict have fragmented Syria, decimating its civilian infrastructure and services, including healthcare facilities, water and sanitation systems, and electricity grids. The United Nations estimates that two-thirds of Syria’s water treatment plants, half of its pumping stations, and a third of its water towers have been damaged since 2011. “Cholera does not have to be fatal,” said an aid worker for northeast Syria, stressing that malnutrition rates, the country’s severely damaged healthcare system, and the lack of safe drinking water for many people make the situation so acute.
Fitch cuts Egypt's outlook to negative - Fitch Ratings has downgraded its outlook for Egypt saying weaker external liquidity and reduced prospects for access to bond markets leave it vulnerable to global shocks. The ratings agency has revised the outlook on Egypt's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to negative from stable, but affirmed the IDR at 'B+'. In a report issued on Tuesday, Fitch also cited a decline in foreign reserves this year, saying they were now equal to just over three months of current external payments. The Central Bank of Egypt's foreign-currency assets not in reserves, mostly deposits at local banks, had recovered to $2 billion by October, from $1.5 billion in March, albeit still well below their February level of $9 billion. External liquidity fell driven by outflows of non-resident investment in locally-issued government debt, which dropped to about $13 billion by September 2022, from over $17 billion in March and over $30 billion in 2021. Following October’s currency devaluation, interest-rate hike and $3 billion loan deal with IMF, some recovery is likely although "at 40% of reserves portfolio holdings remain a significant vulnerability,” said Fitch. Egypt's current account deficits (CADs) is set to narrow to 3.1% of GDP ($13 billion) in the fiscal year ending June 2023 from 3.5% of GDP in FY22 and 4.4% in FY21. "Further improvements in FY23 will be driven mainly by higher Suez Canal shipping fees and further growth in tourism." Egypt's B+ rating reflects support from bilateral and multilateral partners as the country is expecting further investments from the GCC, with a total of $3.6 billion of equity acquisitions finalised so far in 2022, Fitch said. The ratings are supported by the country's large economy and robust growth, "which we expect will remain above the 'B' median at 4.5% in FY23 and FY24, after 6.6% in FY22. Tighter monetary conditions and funding availability pose significant risks to growth."
The West's Ongoing Coercion Of Serbia - On Tuesday, Serbian Armed Forces used electronic jamming measures toneutralize a drone violating its airspace, near its southern border with the disputed territory of Kosovo. Only one day previous, Belgrade scrambledMiG 29 fighter jets against UAVs detected close to the border crossing and military installations at Merdare. While the UAVs swiftly withdrew, the incident resulted in Serbian President, Aleksandar Vučić, issuing a shoot-down order, which was observed in action just the following day.As investigations into the drone’s origin continue, Vučić has stated that the downing of the drone "shows we are serious." "We do not threaten anyone, we aren’t sabre-rattling, but we are determined to protect Serbia and its freedom and independence," he continued.As Serbia’s disputes with Kosovo are longstanding, such an antagonistic turn of events may to many seem unexpected. Yet, this latest wave of provocations, follow a pattern of increasing political pressure applied on Serbia by the EU over its stance on Russia, which is now seemingly taking on military dimensions via NATO and Pristina.Serbian Defense Minister, Miloš Vučević, recently pointed out that Serbia’s military has been on high alert for some months now, following a flaring of tensions between Serbs and Kosovan authorities in July. The unrest came about after the attempted roll out of a policy that would force Serbs in Kosovo’s north to re-register their cars with number plates issued in Pristina, and not Serbia.According to Pristina, the policy, which is now being implemented in phases from November 1st after a requested delay by the US Ambassador in Kosovo, should run across the whole region, including in Serb enclaves. In response, Vučić has accused Pristina of failing to fulfill its obligations established by previous EU-mediated agreements, such as granting autonomy to Serbs in Kosovo’s north, which would go a long way to alleviating the current standoff. He has also highlighted that whilst neglecting its commitments, Pristina cites those same agreements as justification for its continued crackdown on documentation.By August, diplomatic solutions appeared to be progressing somewhat, with NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, meeting with Vučić to address solutions to the situation. While Stoltenberg reaffirmed that “should stability be jeopardized, KFOR stands ready to intervene”, Vučić expressed that Serbia would “continue to respect the KFOR mandate in line with international norms”. Additionally, he explained that he presented Stoltenberg with "a list of Pristina’s special units’ raids in the north," and "a list of all incidents and attacks on the Serb population." The week previous, Kosovo PM, Albin Kurti, was more combative in hisassertions, declaring that Kosovo is "vigilant, but not afraid" of a conflict with Serbia. "Kosovo is a state now, this is not the year 1998," he added, "this is 2022, so we are much more prepared to defend our sovereignty, territorial integrity, to defend our democracy, rule of law, constitutionality, and to defend our progress."
Russia Says Major Dam Hit By US-Supplied HIMARS Rockets - Russia has announced Sunday that a major dam in the Russian-controlled region of Kherson was damaged in a Ukrainian strike using an advanced US-supplied system. "Today at 10:00 there was a hit of six HIMARS rockets. Air defense units shot down five missiles, one hit a lock of the Kakhovka dam, which was damaged," Russian news agencies quoted local emergency authorities as saying. The Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine has been in Russian hands since near the start of the invasion of Ukraine, considered a critical asset to the Russians given it supplies water to Crimea. This also makes it a potential target for the Ukrainian army, given President Zelensky's prior pledges to "liberate" Crimea. An official with the Moscow-installed administration, however, said "Everything is under control. The main air defense strikes were repelled, one missile hit [the dam], but did not cause critical damage." The Kakhovka dam has for months been at the center of competing accusations and claims, with President Zelensky saying weeks ago that Russian troops are plotting a 'false flag' detonation of the large structure in order to trigger cataclysmic flooding. Zelensky appealed to world powers to ensure the dam's safe operation by sending an international mission to protect and operate it, pointing out that if the dam burst it would case a "catastrophe on a grand scale"."The dam of this hydroelectric power plant holds about 18 million cubic meters of water," he said in statements last month. "If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. Hundreds, hundreds of thousands of people may be affected."
Kakhovka Dam in Moscow-Occupied Ukraine 'Damaged' by Kyiv Strike - Russian Agencies - Emergency services in Moscow-occupied Ukraine said Sunday the key Kakhovka dam in the Russian-controlled region of Kherson was "damaged" by a Ukrainian strike, Russian news agencies reported."Today at 10:00 there was a hit of six HIMARS rockets. Air defense units shot down five missiles, one hit a lock of the Kakhovka dam, which was damaged," Russian agencies quoted local emergency services as saying.Ukraine has in recent weeks warned that Moscow forces intended to blow up the strategic facility to cause flooding. The RIA Novosti news agency then quoted a local Moscow-backed official saying the damage was not "critical.""Everything is under control. The main air defense strikes were repelled, one missile hit [the dam], but did not cause critical damage," Ruslan Agayev, a representative of the Moscow-installed administration of nearby city Novaya Kakhovka told the agency. The Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine was captured by Moscow's forces at the start of their offensive. It supplies Russian-annexed Crimea with water. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russian troops of planning to blow it up to trigger a devastating flood. Upstream from the dam is the Kakhovka Reservoir on the Dnipro River. The reservoir can hold 18 cubic kilometers of water. Kyiv has said that the dam bursting would cause a "catastrophe on a grand scale" and has called for an international mission to be deployed at the dam.
Ukrainian officials discuss Kiev evacuation as danger of total power loss grows -The mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, warned Sunday that Ukraine’s capital city could lose all electricity, heat and water during the rapidly-approaching winter. Facing the prospect of a total blackout as temperatures drop well below freezing, officials have drawn up plans to evacuate the city’s population, which stood at nearly 3 million before the war. Concerned about ensuing panic as news of the preparations, reported in the New York Times, spreads, Roman Tkachuk, head of Kiev’s Municipal Security Department, has since insisted that mass evacuation is just one of many scenarios that city administrators are working on and there are no immediate plans to implement such a measure. He warned against believing “misinformation.” In a recent on-the-air telethon, however, executive director of DTEK, one of Ukraine’s largest energy investors, told listeners that a total loss of power to Kiev was entirely possible and it would necessarily raise the need for an evacuation of at least a “certain part of the population.” The regional head of the Kiev area made similar comments a week earlier. Nothing more has been revealed as to how the Ukrainian government intends to move millions of people out of Kiev under conditions in which neither a traffic light is on nor a train moving. As for where it intends to send them, this is also unclear. The country’s capital is currently experiencing, along with six other regions, rolling blackouts, as 40 percent of Ukraine’s energy supply has been damaged or knocked offline. In the event of total loss of all electricity, its water and sewage systems will also fail. In his recent remarks, Mayor Klitschko told the capital city’s residents that they should stock up on warm clothes and power banks, the latter of which can cost hundreds or even thousands of dollars. The former boxer turned right-wing politician also advised people to make preparations to stay with friends and family outside of Kiev who are not dependent on the country’s power grid and have wells and wood-burning stoves. Kherson, a port city in Ukraine’s south that is currently occupied by Russian forces, lost all utilities over the weekend. Moscow claims that Kiev, which is preparing an offensive to retake the city, attacked power lines and a nearby dam. Russian officials say that service has now been partially restored. Bakhnut, in the eastern region of Donetsk, where heavy fighting is occurring, is also without water and electricity. Thousands of others trapped in the warzone are trying to survive in blown-out buildings, improvising makeshift stoves to stay warm. CEO of Ukrainian energy supplier Yasno, Sergei Kovalenko, told the press that Ukraine is facing a projected 32 percent power deficit.
Chinese Exports And Imports Unexpectedly Contract For The First Time Since May 2020 - As markets debate whether the Fed will follow other central banks with a (soft) pivot, the global economy is going from bad to worse: overnight, the latest Chinese customs data showed that China exports as well as imports unexpectedly contracted simultaneously for the first time since May 2020 as elevated inflation and rising interest rates hurt global demand.Chinese exports declined (-0.3% y/y) in October (vs exp +4.5%), the first drop since May 2020 on Covid outbreaks and weak external demand, following a +5.7% increase in September while the implied sequential export growth dropped to -3.8% m/m in October (vs. +0.5% in September).Imports fell (-0.7% y/y) following a +0.3% gain in the previous month, while sequentially imports fell 3.5% mom sa non-annualized in October (vs. -1.0% in September). Import value declined sequentially on the lower prices of metal ores and weaker imports of tech-related products, such as computers and LCD panels. The trade surplus was well below consensus from weaker exports, though the level was slightly higher than September.The overall trade surplus slightly widened to a near +$85.15 billion (up from $84.74 billion in September, but below the forecast of $95.97 billion).According to Goldman, the export weakness broadened across destinations and products. Import of energy goods accelerated somewhat despite a weak import print. Other than weaker DM demand on tighter financial conditions and the ongoing European energy crisis, the contraction of exports partially came from port operation disruptions due to Covid outbreaks.Some more details on China's trade data from Goldman:
- 1. By major export destination, exports weakness broadened in October. The year-over-year growth of exports decelerated across most major trading partners. Among major DM countries, growth of exports to the European Union decelerated the most (-9.0% yoy in October vs. 5.6% in September). Growth of exports to United States decelerated to -12.6% yoy in October (vs. -11.6% in September). Among major EM economies, growth of exports to ASEAN decelerated to 20.3% yoy in October (vs. 29.5% in September), and the implied sequential growth turned negative.
- 2. By major export category, export growth moderated across most products. The export growth of tech-related products dropped the most (cellphones and LCD panels, see Exhibit 3). Among tech-related products, exports of LCD panels declined 16.2% yoy in October (vs. -6.6% in September), and export growth of cellphones moderated to 7.0% yoy in October (vs. 23.2% in September). Among housing-related products, exports of home appliances fell 25.0% yoy in October (vs. -19.8% in September). Among Covid-related products, exports of computers declined 16.5% yoy in October (vs. -12.6% in September).
- 3. Among major import categories, import growth of most energy goods remained solid in October on efforts to ensure energy security, and manufacturing related products rebounded. Among energy goods, import growth of crude oil picked up to 43.8% yoy in October (vs. +34.2% in September) with import volume up 14.1% yoy (vs. -2.0% yoy in September). Import growth of coal accelerated somewhat to 2.8% yoy in October (vs. +1.5% in September) with volume up 8.3% yoy (vs. 0.5% yoy in September). Among major metal ores, import values declined on lower prices. For instance, iron ore import value fell 26.8% yoy in October (vs. -38.8% in September) with import volume up 3.7% yoy (vs. +4.3% yoy in September). Among manufacturing related products, import growth of machine tools rebounded significantly in sequential terms (+44% mom sa non-annualized in October).
FedEx Parks Planes, Maersk Cancels Sails: World Trade Appears To Be Rapidly Deteriorating - Economic storm clouds are gathering worldwide as some of the largest shipping companies warn about sliding global trade. US shipper FedEx and Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S have been vocal about emerging signs of a global slowdown. Both of these companies are widely seen as a barometer for international trade. The latest to warn about weakening economic growth is FedEx CFO Michael Lenz telling an audience Tuesday at the Robert W Baird Global Industrial Conference that the company has reduced flights and parked planes to cut costs in response to soft demand for package delivery. Look, we absolutely will realize more of the structural cost savings in the second half of the year. That's where you get more of the benefits start to roll in principally from -- at Express, the flight reductions. When you park the aircraft, particularly the older airplanes that we're packing, you're deferring a maintenance event, which is a significant expense. While at the same time, you have relatively low ownership costs on those.So it's an operationally and financially flexible way to manage capacity there. So as I said, we're projecting a lower demand outlook for the foreseeable future here.I don't have a perfect crystal ball to say what the overall macro environment will be. Don't have a full year earnings outlook for FY '23. So I don't have any specific projection to give you there, but rest assured, as some of these specifics that I was highlighting illustrate, we are fully committed to continuing to take the actions we need for changed expectations of what the operating environment is."Lenz provided more details about how many domestic and international flights were reduced: We've eliminated roughly 8 or 9 international frequencies, about 23 domestic frequencies thus far that were -- came into the schedule change we did in October. We've got another 8 or 9 domestic frequencies that will go in, in November.The cost-cutting measures align with the firm's surprise earnings pre-announcement in mid-September about macroeconomic weakness worldwide. At the time, it said it was withdrawing its fiscal year 2023 earnings forecast.
‘More than 50 poor countries in danger of bankruptcy’ says UN official - More than 50 of the poorest developing countries are in danger of defaulting on their debt and becoming effectively bankrupt unless the rich world offers urgent assistance, the head of the UN Development Programme has warned. Inflation, the energy crisis and rising interest rates are creating conditions where an increasing number of countries are in danger of default, with potentially disastrous impacts on their people, according to Achim Steiner, the UN’s global development chief. “There are currently 54 countries on our list [of those likely to default] and if we have more shocks – interest rates go up further, borrowing becomes more expensive, energy prices, food prices – it becomes almost inevitable that we will see a number of these economies unable to pay,” he said. “And that creates a catastrophic scenario – look at Sri Lanka [which has descended into civil strife] with all the social and economic and political implications this carries with it.” Speaking at the Cop27 UN climate summit, Steiner said any such default would create further problems for solving the climate crisis. “It certainly will not help [climate] action,” he said. Without measures to help them with debt, he warned, poor countries could not get to grips with the climate crisis. “The issue of debt has now become such a big problem for so many developing economies that dealing with the debt crisis becomes a precondition for actually accelerating climate action,” he said. “We need to inject targeted liquidity into countries to be able to invest in energy transitions, and adaptation [to the impacts of extreme weather].” The climate crisis is further compounding the problem, he warned, as countries are facing increasing effects from extreme weather. Poor countries are not receiving the funding they were promised from the rich world, yet are facing a growing danger of storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves. Steiner warned that some developing countries were in danger of giving up on the UN climate talks if developed country governments failed to fulfil a longstanding promise to poor nations of $100bn (£86bn) a year in assistance, to help them cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of extreme weather.
China Cancels Top EU Official's High-Profile Video Address For Ukraine War Comments - European Council president Charles Michel was set to deliver an address at the opening day of the China International Import Expo (CIIE) hosted in Shanghai on Friday, but Chinese authorities have pulled the pre-recorded video address in a very brazen act of censorship of a top official and diplomat, Reuters reports."As requested by the Chinese authorities, we had indeed provided a pre-recorded message which was ultimately not shown. We have addressed this through the normal diplomatic channels," a statement from EC President Michel's office confirmed. The high-profile speech was likely canceled by Chinese authorities as it was expected to criticize Russia's war in Ukraine while also provocatively urging the European Union to reduce trade dependency on China.What's more is that he was expected to call on Beijing to pressure Moscow to halt the ongoing attack on Ukraine, and heap criticism of the Russia-China "no-limits" partnership declared just before the war's start in February. According to statements from diplomatic sources cited in Reuters, the rebuke of Russia was going to be scathing, at an event where President Xi Jinping is to speak as well: Mr Michel’s speech included strong criticism of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. “In Europe, we want balance in our trade relations... to avoid over-dependencies,” his speech said, reported Reuters citing the diplomats familiar with what he was to say.
German Politicians Move To Block Musk From Restoring Free Speech Protections On Twitter -- We have been discussing how Hillary Clinton and other Democratic leaders have turned from private censorship to good old-fashioned state censorship. They have called upon their counterparts in England, France, and Germany to prevent the restoration of free speech protections with censorship laws — laws that would be unconstitutional in the United States. The British have already responded to such urgent calls and New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern who recently repeated this call for global censorship at the United Nations to the applause of diplomats and media alike. Now the German left has responded with the the ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) calling for censorship before, to use Clinton’s words, “it is too late” and free speech is stored on Twitter. According to a report by the business newspaper Handelsblatt, SPD members are concerned that Twitter will now allow too much free speech and curtail Twitter’s massive censorship system. Jens Zimmermann MP declared “The Federal Office of Justice must therefore take Twitter under stricter supervision and act quickly and decisively in the event of violations.” The Germans are threatening not just the company but Musk himself if he does not censor viewpoints: If Twitter does not meet the requirements, there are penalties not only against the company, but also against the managers responsible.”Clinton and other Democratic leaders are singing to the choir on censorship. Germany has long been one of the most hostile countries to free speech in the West. Germany has proven the fallacy of changing minds through threatened prosecution. While I am certainly sympathetic to the Germans in seeking to end the scourge of fascism, I have long been a critic of the German laws prohibiting certain symbols and phrases. I view it as not just a violation of free speech but a futile effort to stamp but extremism by barring certain symbols. Instead, extremists have rallied around an underground culture and embraced symbols that closely resemble those banned by the government. I fail to see how arresting a man for a Hitler ringtone is achieving a meaningful level of deterrence, even if you ignore the free speech implications.
NHS to Use US “Spy-Tech” Firm Palantir’s Platform to Extract Patient Data Without Patient Consent - Palantir, with intimate ties to defense, intelligence and security industries around the world, seems set to play an even larger role in the UK’s crisis-ridden National Health System (NHS). Last summer, as readers may recall, executives at NHS England — the non-departmental government body that runs the National Health Service in England — came up with an ingenious plan to digitally scrape the general practice data of up to 55 million patients and share it with any private third parties willing to pay for it. NHS England allowed patients to opt out of the scheme; they just didn’t bother telling them about it until three weeks before the deadline, presumably because if they had, millions of patients would have opted out. When the FT finally broke the story, a scandal erupted. NHS England officials responded by shelving the scheme, saying they needed to focus on reaching out to patients and reassuring them their data is safe. But that hasn’t happened. Instead, they have waited for the scandal to die down before embarking on an even more egregious scheme. This time it is patient data from UK hospitals that is up for grabs. And patients will have no opt-out option. In fact, without even consulting patients, NHS England has instructed NHS Digital — which will soon be merged with NHS England as part of the UK’s governments accelerated reforms to the NHS’ “tech agenda” — to gather patient data from NHS hospitals and extract it to its data platform, which is based on Palantir’s Foundry enterprise data management platform. The pretext for taking such a step is that researching and analyzing patients’ hospital data will help the NHS better understand and tackle the crisis in treatment waiting times resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. But the result will be yet more private-sector involvement in essential NHS processes. And in this case, the company being involved in those processes is one of the darkest in the tech universe.
U.K. to cut surcharge on bank profits to 3% to keep industry competitive --Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt plans to cut a surcharge on U.K. bank profits, effectively shielding them from the bulk of an increase in the country's corporate tax rate as the government tries to preserve the competitiveness of Britain's finance industry.U.K. banks currently pay an 8% surcharge on profits on top of the corporation tax rate of 19%. With corporation tax due to rise to 25% from April, Hunt intends to cut the surcharge to 3%, said two officials familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity because no final decisions have been taken.It means that the overall tax rate on bank profits would still rise — to 28% from 27% — but to well below the 33% level they faced if Hunt didn't touch the surcharge. The City of London had warned it risks losing out to other financial centers such as Dublin and New York if the bank tax rate had risen that much.A Treasury spokesperson declined to comment on tax measures ahead of a fiscal event.Hunt is expected to include an announcement on the bank surcharge when he sets out a package of more than £50 billion ($57 billion) of spending cuts and tax increases on Nov. 17, as Rishi Sunak's government tries to stabilize Britain's public finances after former premier Liz Truss's disastrous tenure.Banks in the U.K. have been paying extra taxes for more than a decade to reflect taxpayer support they received during the 2008 financial crisis. A levy on their balance sheets has raised almost £25 billion since it was introduced in 2011, while the surcharge has generated just over £8 billion since 2016.
More UK misery as economy contracts in third quarter - The Bank of England has said the UK economy would also contract in the current final quarter, meaning the economy was in a recession that it warned could last until mid-2024. Britain's economy shrank in the third quarter as inflation soars, official data showed Friday, likely confirming it is already in a recession, dealing a fresh blow to new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The Bank of England has said the UK economy would also contract in the current final quarter, meaning the economy was in a recession that it warned could last until mid-2024. Friday's data comes ahead of the Conservative government's crucial budget announcement next week aimed at bringing much-needed economic and political stability to Britain. Sunak, in charge for less than three weeks, has already faced questions over his political judgement after expressing regret on Wednesday for appointing a disgraced ally. Britain's Office for National Statistics on Friday said the nation's economy contracted 0.2 percent in the July-September period -- in part hit by businesses closing for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II. Output had grown modestly in the second quarter, the statistics office confirmed. - 'Tough road ahead' - Following Friday's data and ahead of his budget, finance minister Jeremy Hunt said he was "under no illusion that there is a tough road ahead -- one which will require extremely difficult decisions to restore confidence and economic stability". Preparing the country for tax hikes and spending cuts in Thursday's fiscal announcement, he added that the Tory government needed to "balance the books and get debt falling".
No comments:
Post a Comment