week ending Nov 19

Yields rise as Fed officials dampen pivot hopes (Reuters) - Treasury yields rose on Monday after Federal Reserve officials warned that the U.S. central bank will continue to hike rates, albeit likely at a slower pace, as it battles inflation, dampening hopes that it is close to ending its tightening cycle. The Fed may consider slowing the pace of rate increases at its next meeting but that should not be seen as a "softening" in its commitment to lower inflation, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said on Sunday, adding that markets should now pay attention to the "endpoint" of rate increases, not the pace of each move. That endpoint is likely still "a ways off," he noted. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said on Monday that the U.S. central bank will likely soon slow its interest rates hikes, but emphasized that "we have additional work to do." Yields plunged on Thursday after data showed that consumer prices rose less than expected in October, raising hopes that soaring price pressures have peaked and that the Fed may pivot to a more dovish policy. "The market got a little bit overdone to the downside," said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global Holdings. That said, yields may be nearing a top, with the economy likely to slow next year and inflation also likely to fall, he added. Benchmark 10-year yields gained 4 basis points to 3.867%, holding below a 15-year high of 4.338% reached on Oct. 21. The yields dropped by 32 basis points on Thursday, the largest one-day fall in basis point terms since March 2009. Two-year yields rose 8 basis points to 4.408%, after reaching a more than 15-year high of 4.883% on Nov. 4. They sank 30 basis points on Thursday, the largest one-day decline since September 2008. Fed funds futures traders see a 91% probability of a 50-basis-point increase at the Fed's December meeting, with only a 9% likelihood of a 75-basis-point rise. The size of any rate increase may be swayed by the November consumer price index that is due for release on Dec. 13, one day before the Fed's two-day meeting concludes. The fed funds rate is expected to top out at 4.93% in June, up from 3.83% now, and gradually decline to 4.48% by December 2023. Closely watched parts of the Treasury yield curve also remained deeply inverted on Monday, reflecting concerns about an impending recession. The two-year, 10-year part of the curve was last at minus 54 basis points. The gap between three-month and 10-year yields was also at minus 32 basis points. The Treasury Department will sell $15 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $15 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) on Thursday.

Treasuries Fall as Fed's Waller Pushes Back on Dovish Rate Bets-- Treasuries fell across the curve and the dollar strengthened against most of its major peers after Federal Reserve Governor Christoper Waller pushed back on bets the US central bank was nearing the end of its hiking cycle, while traders were also on alert for a scheduled appearance by his colleague Lael Brainard. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed as much as nine basis points to 3.90% as trading kicked off again after a public holiday Friday, before moving to around 3.88% in New York morning trading. Waller said the Fed has got a ways to go before its stops hiking and the market got “way out in front” over the unexpected cooling in inflation last week. A gauge of the greenback rose as much as 0.6% before shifting to be up around 0.4% on the day. “Easier financial conditions risk undoing the Fed’s work to bring inflation sustainably down to target, so it is not surprising to see officials push back a bit,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Isabella Rosenberg wrote in a client note. The dollar’s advance comes after a gauge of the currency slid 3.5% last week, its biggest decline since the early days of the pandemic, as traders trimmed bets on aggressive Fed hikes after US inflation was slower in October than economists forecast. Treasury yields also tumbled and stocks surged amid optimism the Fed wouldn’t need to increase rates as much as anticipated. US two-year yields -- among the most sensitive to changes in monetary policy -- climbed as much as 10 basis points to 4.43%, after sliding 33 basis points last week. German and UK 10-year yields fell 4 basis points to 2.12% and 4 basis points to 3.31% respectively, paring some of Friday’s advance.

Pace of interest rate hikes can slow soon: Fed vice chair --The Federal Reserve may soon reduce the pace of its interest rates hikes, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday.“I think it will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases, but I think what’s really important to emphasize is… we have additional work to do,” Brainard said in an interview with Bloomberg in Washington.The Fed raised its policy rate early this month to a range of 3.75%-4%, its fourth straight 75-basis-point interest-rate hike, as it seeks to bring down inflation that’s running more than three times the Fed’s 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank’s next move may be smaller to give time to judge how the rapid rate hikes so far this year are affecting the economy.But he also signaled the policy rate may next year peak at a rate higher than the 4.6% level that most policymakers had expected in September. Brainard echoed that view.“It makes sense to move to a more deliberate and a more data dependent pace as we continue to make sure that there’s restraint that will bring inflation down over time,” she said.

Fed's Bullard says rate hikes have had 'only limited effects' on inflation so far -St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday the central bank still has a lot of work to do before it brings inflation under control.A voting member on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, Bullard delivered remarks centered on a rules-based approach to policymaking. Using standards set by Stanford economics professor John Taylor, Bullard insisted that the moves the Fed has made so far are insufficient. "Thus far, the change in the monetary policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023," he said.Even using assumptions he characterized as "generous" regarding the progress the Fed has made so far in its inflation fight, he noted in a series of slides that "the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive.""To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further," he added in the presentation.Recent data has indicated the pace of inflation could be slowing. The consumer price index for October increased 0.4%, below market expectations, and the annual pace is down to 7.7%, off the 41-year high reached in the summer but still well above the Fed's 2% target. Another measure Fed officials prefer has core inflation, excluding food and energy, at 5.1% annually, but that is still out of line with the goal.There's little if any dissent on the Fed over whether rates need to continue to rise. Most members have suggested a few more increases over the next several months that will take the central bank's benchmark overnight borrowing rate to around 5% from its current target range of 3.75%-4%.However, Bullard's presentation contended that 5% could serve as the low range for the where the funds rate needs to be, and that upper bound could be closer to 7%. That is well out of sync with current market pricing, which also sees the fed funds rate topping out around 5% by mid-2023.The Taylor Rule, as it is known, establishes a link between what the funds rate needs to be compared with inflation and economic growth. Inflation growth has abated recently, but the annual rate remains around the highest in more than 40 years.Bullard's remarks follow statements from multiple other Fed officials expressing the need to keep up the heat against inflation, though several said policymakers could ease up a bit from the level of recent increases. The Fed has approved four consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hikes, and markets widely expect the December FOMC meeting to yield a 0.5 percentage point move.Despite backing the continued rate increases, Kansas City Fed President Esther George told The Wall Street Journal, in a report dated Wednesday, that she is concerned over the impact the policy tightening could have on the economy. "I have not in my 40 years with the Fed seen a time of this kind of tightening that you didn't get some painful outcomes," George told the Journal, listing a "contraction" as part of the potential results.George also is a voter on the FOMC.In other recent remarks, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Wednesday he's open to the idea of "stepping down" the level of rate hikes but added he will need to see more evidence before he is persuaded by recent data suggesting inflation has plateaued.Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC on Wednesday thatshe expects more rate rises and that a "pause is off the table" even with a lower level of rate increases.

Fed official suggests substantial rate hikes may be needed - ABC News -- The Federal Reserve may have to raise its benchmark interest rate much higher than it has previously projected to get inflation under control, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Thursday. Bullard's comments raised the prospect that the Fed's rate hikes will make borrowing by consumers and businesses even costlier and further heighten the risk of recession. Wall Street traders registered their concern by sending stock market into the red Thursday. The S&P 500 ended the day down 12.23 points, or 0.3%, at 3,946.56. Bullard's remarks followed speeches by other Fed officials in recent days that suggested they see only limited progress, at most, in their use of steadily higher rates to fight inflation. Bullard's views have added significance because he is a voting member of the Fed's rate-setting committee this year. The Fed's key short-term interest rate “has not yet reached a level that could be justified as sufficiently restrictive,” Bullard said. “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.” The Fed is seeking to raise borrowing rates to a level that restrains economic growth and hiring in order to cool inflation. The central bank has rapidly raised its benchmark rate by an aggressive three-quarters of a point at each of its last four meetings — the fastest series of hikes since the early 1980s. The cumulative effect has been to make many consumer and business loans costlier and to raise the risk of a recession. Those increases have boosted the Fed's short-term rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, up from nearly zero as recently as last March, to the highest level in nearly 15 years. Bullard suggested that the rate may have to rise to a level between 5% and 7% in order to quash inflation, which is near a four-decade high. He added, though, that that level could decline if inflation were to cool in the coming months. Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, echoed some of Bullard's remarks in her own speech Thursday, when she said the Fed is “just beginning to move into restrictive territory.” That suggests Mester, one of the more hawkish policymakers, also expects rates will have to move much higher. In Fed parlance, hawks tend to focus more on lifting rates to combat inflation, while doves typically prefer lower rates to support growth and hiring. By contrast, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, a more dovish official, suggested several times Monday that the Fed has already gotten rates to a level that restrains growth, though she added the central bank would need to move “further into restrictive” territory. And on Wednesday, Esther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that a recession was likely given how rapidly the Fed has tightened credit. “I have not in my 40 years with the Fed seen a time of this kind of tightening that you didn’t get some painful outcomes,” she said. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have clearly signaled that they will likely lift rates by a half-percentage point at their next meeting in December, a step down from their previous increases. Yet at the same time, they have taken pains to emphasize that the smaller hikes — most analysts expect quarter-point increases at the February and March meetings — don’t mean the Fed is necessarily nearing an end to its increases, as the financial markets have often assumed. “Pausing is off the table right now — it’s not even part of the discussion,” San Francisco Federal Reserve president Mary Daly said in a Wednesday interview on CNBC.

Fed to face rising tensions in next Congress on inflation and jobs - After dealing with a largely friendly Congress over the past two years, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces rising tensions over his policies as Democrats warn about job losses while Republicans continue to press on the importance of stable prices. North Carolina Republican Patrick McHenry — who's in line to lead the House Financial Services Committee after the GOP won control of the chamber in the midterm elections — has called for the Fed to stay focused on controlling inflation. Democrats, who retained the Senate, have begun to voice concerns that higher borrowing costs will hurt jobs and potentially cause a recession. During their control of Congress in the past two years, Democrats have offered mostly what analysts said was unusually light questioning of the Fed's policy blunder: misjudging the persistence of inflation and waiting too long to attack it. That gave prices a ramp to run up at the fastest pace in 40 years. "There hasn't been a lot of scrutiny that has been very targeted at the Fed's management of monetary policy," said Ian Katz, a financial policy analyst at Capital Alpha Partners. "Democrats don't want to talk about inflation." However, the economic fallout from its aggressive rate hikes — aimed at fighting the inflation surge that Republicans frequently cited in their campaigns and blamed on Democrats — has begun to draw sharper criticism from some corners of the Democratic Party. And while McHenry has been friendly toward Powell and comes with an agenda targeting financial-regulation priorities, Republican staff on the committee said they're also interested in examining how the Fed misjudged inflation pressures. The changing landscape could test the relationships that Powell has worked to build with lawmakers through regular meetings and calls. California Rep. Maxine Waters, the House panel's outgoing chair, sent Powell a letter this month after the Fed's fourth consecutive 75-basis-point increase, saying "enough is enough," and warning that an over-correction on rates could tip the economy into a recession. Powell has also received warnings from Senate Democrats such as John Hickenlooper of Colorado, who warned in a letter that Fed actions could "undermine economic growth and harm American families." Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, cautioned Powell to "not lose sight of your responsibility to ensure that we have full employment" while fighting inflation.

What Will Break First As The Fed Continues To Tighten: Financial Giants Duke It Out - One week ago, in its latest and quite apocalyptic note which was a must-read for every finance professional (and is still available to pro subs), Elliott Management not only previewed the dire endgame of this monetary experiment, and for those who missed it here it is again...... the Fed has never raised rates into a struggling economy, as it is now doing. What level of rates will occasion a crash? Or will it be some combination of a melee factor and rates? We can’t know. A crash would certainly put a strong damper on consumer and producer prices. Will they just keep raising rates until the economy does crash? Central bankers actually say that they are aiming for a soft landing. But they are not puppeteers. They do not have the control that they profess to have. Whether there is a soft landing or a “hard” landing (crash) is completely unknown at present.As one final example, policymakers state their determination to tame inflation, but QE has not truly reversed. Mortgages on central-bank balance sheets are not being sold. They are raising interest rates like crazy, and the natural way for inflation to go from 10% to 2% is through a serious recession. There is still $30 trillion on central banks’ balance sheets. So what happens when the recession is in full force? Do the central bank balance sheets go to $50 trillion? ... the hedge fund with nearly 50 years of capital markets experience also laid out a list of triggers that could "break" the market and lead to the next crash, including:

• Banks and other lenders are starting to be forced to recognize large losses on bridge financings and loans;
• Leveraged holders of mortgage-backed securities, and structured-debt products and CLOs, may be facing substantial markdowns;
• Liquidity in rates and credit markets has been dramatically reduced;
• Leveraged private equity will be under severe stress in the event of a meaningful recession; and
• Housing unaffordability has taken the largest and quickest jump in history (the combination of the 45% rise in home prices from 2019 through 2022 and the extraordinary and rapid rise in interest rates).

A "market break" is, of course, a topic that has been near and dear to our heart ever since we first predicted in January that the Fed's rate hikes will inevitably lead to something snapping.

 Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-November by Menzie Chinn - Industrial production declined 0.1% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.2. NFP employment rose in October strongly. Other key indicators followed by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 11/16 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 GDP is from GDPNow for 11/16. Lilac shading denotes a hypothetical recession in 2022H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (11/1/2022 release), GDPNow (11/16) and author’s calculations.While industrial production declined, and manufacturing production rose only 0.1% vs. 0.2% m/m consensus, retail sales far exceeded expectations. GDPNow as of today is for 4.382% q/q SAAR in Q4. Given the likely revisions in GDP and the evolution of GDO, it seems unlikely (still) to me that a recession occurred in 2022H1. A recession in 2023 however, seems likely given yield curve inversions and other predictors.

 Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 13th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is 5.5% below the same week in 2019 (94.5% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 10th. Movie ticket sales were at $75 million last week, down about 58% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). This data is through Nov 5th. The occupancy rate was down 9.2% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of November 4th, gasoline supplied was down 1.5% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.

White House's hopes for a lame-duck debt ceiling deal are fading fast--The White House has largely given up hope of Congress raising the nation’s debt limit during the lame-duck session that runs through late December, increasing the risk of a highly partisan, market-rattling fiscal confrontation next year.Senior administration officials see little chance of attracting any Republican votes for a bipartisan debt limit hike during the short session. And they don’t believe they have the 50 Democratic Senate votes needed to slam through a hike using the budget reconciliation process that would allow them to avoid a Republican filibuster.“We’d love to do the debt limit. That doesn’t magically create the votes to get the debt limit done,” said one frustrated senior White House official. The administration has determined that if it were to go the reconciliation route on the debt limit, it would face likely opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). And there could be other defectors. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he wants a bipartisan vote to raise the borrowing cap during the lame-duck session. But Republicans, many of whom are eager to use the limit as leverage to extract legislative concessions from Democrats in the next Congress, have shown no appetite for any such bipartisan approach.

Democrats must protect Social Security by raising the debt ceiling - Cutting Social Security is terrible policy and deeply unpopular. Nevertheless, Republican politicians are desperate to cut or, worse, dismember this invaluable institution. Even in the months leading up to the midterm elections, Republicans couldn’t stop themselves from talking about their plans to go after the American people’s earned Social Security benefits. Republican politicians hate Social Security because it is a successful and popular program that puts the lie to their anti-government ideology. And their Wall Street donors, who receive no fees from Social Security, believe there is money to be made by cutting or privatizing the system.The Republican obsession with cutting Social Security, so opposed by even the most conservative voters, helped to turn the “red wave” that Republicans anticipated into a red mirage. Blake Masters, an Arizona Senate candidate who ran on privatizing Social Security, lost to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. Similarly, Don Bolduc, a New Hampshire Senate candidate who ran on cutting and privatizing both Social Security and Medicare, was crushed by Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. Even Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), darling of the MAGA Republicans, came within one percentage point of losing his seat — his closest election by far — when he said that he wanted to convert Social Security and Medicare from guaranteed earned benefits into “discretionary spending” (Washington-speak for cutting benefits).Unfortunately, even though Democrats retained control of the Senate and the House is closely divided, those determined Republicans have a plan to get their way: Threaten to wreck the global economy, unless Democrats meet their demands. They plan to take the economy hostage by refusing to lift the debt ceiling, thus undermining the full faith and credit of the United States and creating worldwide chaos.What ransom would Republicans demand in return for releasing this hostage? Cuts to our earned Social Security and Medicare benefits. We know that Republicans plan to do this because they’ve told us explicitly and repeatedly. Last month, every Republican who is in contention to lead the House Budget Committee told Bloombergthat they plan to demand Social Security and Medicare cuts in return for raising the debt limit. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who is likely the incoming Speaker of the House of Representatives and therefore in a position to make good on the threat, has been clear that he will not simply allow a so-called clean debt ceiling vote; rather, he will demand concessions from Democrats. Asked explicitly if he would support taking the debt ceiling hostage to demand cuts to so-called “entitlements”, McCarthy cagily responded — just a few weeks before the election — that he wouldn’t “predetermine” anything. In politician-speak, that’s an emphatic “yes.” Again, leaving no doubts, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) said that “our main focus” has got to be on so-called “entitlements” — Washington-speak for Social Security and Medicare’s earned benefits. And to be clear, a “compromise” of a bipartisan commission, as Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) has proposed, is no compromise at all. It is simply a way to cut Social Security while avoiding political accountability. This is by no means the first time that Republicans have engaged in this hostage-taking tactic to get their hands on Social Security. Republicans tried the same play in 2011 and 2013. Due to massive grassroots opposition, they didn’t succeed in their No. 1 goal of cutting Social Security and Medicare. But they did force draconian cuts to non-defense discretionary spending programs, which harmed millions of Americans and likely contributed to a slower economic recovery from the Great Recession.The good news is that Democrats can protect our earned Social Security from Republican plans to force cuts. But they must act in this Congress, while Democrats still control the House and can use the reconciliation process — which allows the Democratic majority in the Senate to enact legislation without Republican support. Democrats should lift (or better yet, eliminate) the debt limit before the end of the year. That will protect Social Security, Medicare, and other vital programs from today’s radical congressional Republicans.

Lawmakers back to deal-making on permitting, spending - Lawmakers are intensifying negotiations on a spending package and permitting reform ahead of a busy rush to the finish line in December.Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said “good conversations” continued over the recess on permitting. The White House has also voiced support for a bill in the lame-duck session (E&E News PM, Nov. 11).“We’re working every way we can,” Manchin said as Congress returned to work Monday. “This needs to be passed.”Manchin and other lawmakers want to streamline the approval process for both fossil fuel and renewable energy projects and want the compromise legislation to ride on the National Defense Authorization Act, which already includes an array of energy and environmental provisions.Lawmakers, for example, are poised to use the must-pass defense bill to approve the latest water projects authorization bill, the Water Resources Development Act, or WRDA.But the politics around permitting reform remain tricky. Changing the current system faces stiff opposition from House progressives wary of making any changes to the National Environmental Policy Act or approving the contentious Mountain Valley pipeline project.And many Republicans have resisted Manchin’s permitting proposals, arguing reform legislation should be more aggressive. The GOP has also resisted joining a deal that Manchin hatched with Democratic leaders in exchange for his support of the Inflation Reduction Act.Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), one of the progressive permitting reform opponents, said it’s “hard to say” whether the permitting push would have enough votes in the House as an attachment to the NDAA.“The NDAA is already going to be combined with WRDA,” Huffman said. “You’ve got to put a pretty complicated algorithm together for that.”Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), who has supported permitting reform as a means to build out clean energy, said it’s “too early to tell” if the effort will pan out.“It’s one of those interesting places where it’s not the substance that has tripped all this up,” Heinrich said in an interview Monday. “So that makes it harder, for me at least, to sort of game out what the odds are.”The Senate launched debate on its version of the NDAA last month but set aside the effort to deal with nominations and gay marriage. The chambers may end up crafting a final defense bill behind closed doors.

Defense negotiators resist adding permitting to NDAA - Leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services committees were pessimistic Tuesday about Sen. Joe Manchin’s permitting reform package ending up in the annual defense authorization package.“Zero chance,” House Armed Services ranking member Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) said about the prospects of the West Virginia Democrat’s permitting reform push being in the fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. “We’re doing everything we can to keep anything controversial out of this bill.”The House already passed its version of the NDAA, but the Senate has opted to address other priorities, including nominees. Negotiators are instead trying to craft a final package behind closed doors“The approach is to try and work this out between the four leaders of the committees, Democrat, Republican, House and Senate, and then the top leadership and get a bill we can all agree on,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). “We think we’ll get more done that way.”Even though Schumer supports permitting reform, the defense bill strategy could hurt Manchin’s cause, with top negotiators reluctant to include anything controversial that might jeopardize the bill’s passage before the end of the year. The NDAA has passed Congress every year for 62 years straight.“My focus is to get the NDAA done,” said Senate Armed Services ranking member Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.). “I am not optimistic” that permitting reform will be included.Whether or not permitting reform is included in the NDAA could ultimately be up to Schumer. House Armed Services Chair Adam Smith (D-Wash.) previously said the Democratic leadership would make the call on such a pivotal issue (E&E Daily, Sept. 21)Schumer said Tuesday, “As you saw when we tried it last time, there weren’t enough Republican votes. I’m working with Senator Manchin to see what we can get done next.”Senate Armed Services Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said including the permitting package “hasn’t been suggested ” so far in NDAA negotiations.

With GOP House win, Biden faces added curbs on foreign policy - President Biden will confront new challenges in advancing his global agenda following the midterm elections, as Republican gains are expected to deepen congressional skepticism about U.S. support for Ukraine, renew scrutiny of America’s posture abroad and initiate polarizing probes into his handling of Afghanistan and immigration. While Democrats have retained their majority in the Senate, Republican control of the House has the potential to constrain Biden’s ability to achieve key foreign policy goals, including his intent to continue providing high levels of aid for Ukraine in the war against Russia. Anincident this week in Poland foreshadowed the debates to come, with a segment of the GOP demanding an end to U.S. support after two people died in an explosion that Western officials think was caused, unintentionally, by the Ukrainians. Analysts said those pressures will be tempered, both by Republican divisions on that topic and the president’s broad authority in foreign affairs.Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said substantial bipartisan agreement on some issues, including a desire to take a hawkish stance on China, would blunt the impact on Biden of Republicans’ ascendancy in the elections. He said last week’s polls — which largely defied fears of electoral violence or the immediate rejections of results — would help allay American allies troubled by recent tumult in U.S. politics.Speaking last week about Democrats’ stronger-than-expected showing at the polls, Biden said he hoped to collaborate with Republicans on foreign affairs, promising to invite congressional leaders from both parties to the White House following his trip to Asia and the Middle East to discuss how they can jointly advance U.S. security and prosperity. “I’m open to any good ideas,” he said.The midterms’ effect on Biden’s foreign policy agenda takes on greater importance as he prepares for a reelection bid in 2024, when his international record will probably contribute to voters’ decisions.But perhaps the most immediate concern for Biden and his advisers is the potential for a Republican-controlled House to impose new obstacles on his desire to continue the extensive military and economic support his administration has provided to Ukraine. Security aid to Ukraine has topped $18 billion since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, the largest such annual sum since the end of the Cold War, and with Ukrainian forcesclaiming victory in the strategic city of Kherson, there are few signs the war will conclude anytime soon. While support for Ukraine remains strong among many senior congressional Republicans, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), who is vying to become House speaker when Republicans take over in January, has signaled the House GOP could end or limit spending on the war.

Biden and Xi meet at the G-20 against a backdrop of high tensions - — President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a three-hour, high-stakes meeting here Monday, with Biden saying that “I absolutely believe there need not be a new Cold War” after their first in-person exchange as their nations’ leaders at a time of brewing tensions between the global powers. Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia’s war in Ukraine. The encounter was Biden’s most consequential during a week-long foreign trip, as the two countries have collided on trade, the war in Ukraine, and economic and military threats amid fears that the U.S.-China relationship could devolve into a Cold War of sorts. “I’m convinced that he understood exactly what I was saying, and I understood what he was saying,” Biden told reporters after the meeting. “I’ve met many times with Xi Jinping, and we were candid and clear with one another across the board.” He said he did not believe that a Chinese attack on Taiwan was imminent. He stressed that the United States and China would compete vigorously but were not looking for conflict. And while Xi has recently consolidated power in China, Biden said that “I didn’t find him more confrontational or conciliatory, I found him the way he’s always been — direct and straightforward.” Casting the meeting as one that could begin to soothe tensions, he also said he has asked Secretary of State Antony Blinken to travel to Beijing to follow up on Monday’s discussion. Biden’s overall message was that the meeting had lowered the temperature between the countries. But the president was also careful to stress that there had been no “Kumbaya” moment. With aides and advisers looking on from long, draped tables in a ballroom at the palatial Mulia Resort — everyone in the delegations wearing masks except for the two principal figures — both presidents stressed in their opening remarks the importance of face-to-face diplomacy and expressed hope they could get the U.S.-China relationship back on track. As Biden and Xi meet, can their old connection avert a clash? “The world expects, I believe, the U.S. and China to play a key role in global challenges, from climate change to food insecurity, and for us to be able to work together,” Biden said in his opening remarks. “The United S n’s comments during his presidential campaign, when he described Xi as a “thug” who “doesn’t have a [democratic] bone in his body.”

Biden objects to China's 'aggressive' approach to Taiwan in three-hour meeting with Xi -U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday raised objections to China's actions toward Taiwan in a three-hour meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The meeting took place in Bali, a day before the G-20 summit is due to kick off, and was the first time the two superpower leaders had met in person since Biden took office. "We need to chart the right course for the China-U.S. relationship," Xi said at the opening of the meeting in Mandarin, according an official English translation broadcast. "We need to find the right direction for the bilateral relationship going forward and elevate the relationship." Xi emphasized the need to learn from history, using it "as a mirror" to "guide the future," according to a release from China's Foreign Ministry. He said the bilateral relationship is not in a situation that's in the interest of the two countries' peoples, and isn't what the international community expects.The meeting took place in Bali, a day before the G-20 summit is due to kick off. The U.S. and China can manage their differences and stop competition from turning into conflict, Biden said. A White House readout of Biden's remarks said that the two leaders spoke "candidly about their respective priorities and intentions across a range of issues." "President Biden explained that the United States will continue to compete vigorously with the PRC [People's Republic of China], including by investing in sources of strength at home and aligning efforts with allies and partners around the world," the readout said. "He reiterated that this competition should not veer into conflict and underscored that the United States and China must manage the competition responsibly and maintain open lines of communication. The two leaders discussed the importance of developing principles that would advance these goals and tasked their teams to discuss them further." The two leaders held a videoconference in Nov. 2021 and, among other communication, had a call in late July. Tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated over the last several years, touching flashpoints ranging from Taiwan and the war in Ukraine, to the ability of American companies to sell high-end tech to Chinese businesses. On Taiwan, Biden reportedly told Xi Monday that the U.S.'s "one China policy" had not changed. "The United States opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo by either side, and the world has an interest in the maintenance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. He raised U.S. objections to the PRC's coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan, which undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region, and jeopardize global prosperity," the White House readout said.

Biden tells skeptics the U.S., China can work together after Xi meeting– President Joe Biden said after his meeting Monday with Chinese President Xi Jinping that he is confident China is not preparing to attack Taiwan. "I do not think there's any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan. And I made it clear that our policy in Taiwan has not changed at all," Biden said at a news conference in Bali. After a three-hour meeting with the Chinese leader, Biden said the midterm elections sent a strong message around the globe "that the United States is ready to play." Biden sought to reassure skeptics that the U.S. and China can work together. "The world expects, I believe, China and the United States to play key roles in addressing global challenges from climate change to food insecurity and for us to be able to work together," Biden told Xi before their meeting. "The United States stands ready to do just that – work with you – if that's what you desire.” The meeting between the leaders of the world's two largest economies happened on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit, which is being held this year on the resort island of Bali, Indonesia. Biden said he and Xi also discussed the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in its war in Ukraine. "We discussed Russia's aggression against Ukraine, reaffirmed our shared belief in the threat or the use of nuclear weapons is totally unacceptable," Biden said. Biden told reporters later that he also brought up North Korea in the meeting. "I've made it clear to President Xi Jinping that I thought they had an obligation to attempt to make it clear to North Korea that they should not engage in long-range nuclear tests," Biden said, adding that if it did, the U.S. would have to take defensive actions. He notably did not say whether he and Xi came to any sort of an agreement on how to approach deterrence. Moving forward, both superpowers agreed regular talks were key. "I'm committed to keeping the lines of communications open between you and me personally, but also our governments across the board," Biden told Xi on Monday, emphasizing both countries share a responsibility to "manage our differences, prevent competition from becoming anything ever to near conflict, and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation."

4 takeaways from President Biden's 'very blunt' meeting with China's Xi Jinping — A highly anticipated meeting between China's leader Xi Jinping and President Biden finished Monday with both leaders expressing an openness to restoring channels of communication and repairing a relationship that has been compared to a second Cold War. The leaders of two superpowers met face-to-face and unmasked on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, on Monday evening. In a substantial meeting, they touched on the war in Ukraine, military tension in the Taiwan Strait and North Korean missile tests. Biden said he and Xi were "very blunt with one another." Xi, according to his spokesperson, viewed the meeting as "in-depth, candid and constructive." Here's what you need to know about their three-hour discussion.

• Biden and Xi both said in their opening remarks that they were looking for ways to coexist despite their disagreements. The two spent lots of time together when they were both vice presidents more than a decade ago — and both men referenced their lengthy relationship in warm greetings before the talks began."Do I believe he's willing to compromise on certain issues? Yes," Biden told reporters afterward about his meeting with Xi. "We were very blunt with one another about places where we disagreed." Today's meeting was the first face-to-face exchange between the two since Biden became president. It took place after both leaders had just strengthened their respective political positions at home, analysts say.In what analysts called a "breakthrough," Beijing and Washington said they would resume climate talks that had been frozen following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's controversial visit to Taiwan in August, which Beijing claims as its own. The White House said the leaders "agreed to empower key senior officials to maintain communication and deepen constructive efforts."
• Taiwan, technology and human rights remain areas of intense disagreement . During their meeting, Biden and Xi did not resolve the key issues that have driven competition and disagreement between the U.S. and China.Last month, the U.S. imposed dramatic export bans on certain advanced semiconductor technology — trade sanctions explicitly designed to hobble critical technology sectors like military modernization and artificial intelligence that are important to China.Meanwhile, according to the U.S. readout, Biden "raised concerns about PRC practices in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, and human rights more broadly." China has long insisted these issues are of "internal affairs" and has warned against "external interference." "The world is big enough for the two countries to develop themselves and prosper together," tweeted Hua Chunying, a foreign ministry spokesperson who accompanied Xi in his meeting with Biden.On Taiwan, despite intense media speculation over Beijing's intention, Biden said he did "not think there's any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan."
• Ukraine and North Korea were elephants in the room. The U.S. has pushed China to take a clearer stand against Russia's war in Ukraine, which China has tried to remain neutral on despite signing a partnership with Moscow in February.Some analysts say China appeared to be blindsided when Russia invaded Ukraine in February. Beijing has called repeatedly for a peaceful, negotiated end to the war.During their meeting, Xi and Biden agreed "that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won and underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine," according to the White House statement. The Chinese readout included no mention of nuclear weapons.The two leaders also spoke about North Korea — a longstanding regional security issue. Biden warned if Beijing is unable to rein in Pyongyang's weapons ambitions, the U.S. would beef up its presence in the region — a move that will be read by Beijing as a threat to its own security.
• U.S. domestic politics also plays a role. Last year, China's foreign minister Wang Yi put out three core demands — "bottom lines" — that China wanted the U.S. to agree to in order for relations to improve: to not get in the way in the country's development, to respect China's claims over places like Taiwan and to respect Beijing's Communist Party rule. From Beijing's perspective, the U.S. has since done the opposite on all counts. It hasimposed the semiconductor export bans and sanctioned some of China's leading technology firms — moves Beijing decried.Meanwhile, the U.S. has upped ties with Taiwan, with lawmakers including Pelosi visiting the island since August. Congress is considering drawing on the U.S. weapons stockpile to arm the island at American expense. Biden stressed in the press conference after meeting Xi that U.S. policy on Taiwan remains unchanged.And while Biden came in to the G20 with a stronger position due to the narrow Democratic victory in the battle to control the Senate, he is up for reelection in two years himself.

Biden Sees 'No Imminent Attempt Of China To Invade Taiwan' After Xi Meeting - During President Biden's Q&A portion of his post Xi meeting presser, he took just a few questions, during which time he stressed that he and the Chinese president understood each other well. "There need not be a new Cold War...We were candid and clear with one another across the board." Addressing the key geopolitical flashpoint between the rival nuclear-armed superpowers, Biden said he doesn't believe that China will invade Taiwan: "I do not think there's any imminent attempt of China to invade Taiwan. We want cross-strait issues to be resolved," he said. He called the meeting "direct and straightforward" - while saying that on Taiwan and "every issue that was raised" they will maintain open lines of communication. He confirmed that Secretary of State Blinken will later visit China as a follow-up to Monday's G20 summit discussions. As for the official readout from the Chinse said, it too stressed that "differences" between the two countries should not become an obstacle to cooperation on key fronts. "It is in our mutual and fundamental interest to prevent conflict and confrontation and achieve peaceful coexistence. The two economies are deeply integrated, and both face new tasks in development," Xi said. He said the world is big enough for the two to develop and prosper. As for the Taiwan question, Xi stressed that this is "the bedrock of the political foundation of China-US relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations."

Washington Attempts To Bully India Into Cutting Ties With Russia - For months the US has repeatedly tried to coerce India into cutting ties with Russia, thereby abandoning its national interests. New Delhi, however, continues to spurn American attempts to subject its economy to Washington’s dictates. The latest fuss concerns the G7 price cap on Russian oil and EU and UK bans on shipping and related services for Russian crude. India continues to have no interest in joining the US-led initiative as it gets a steep discount on oil from Russia and wants to maintain the relationship with a long-time strategic partner. Indian Foreign Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar was just in Moscow on Nov. 8 to discuss continued sales of oil. From the South China Morning Post:India’s foreign minister hailed New Delhi’s “strong and steady” relationship with Moscow on Tuesday, during his first visit there since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.Subrahmanyam Jaishank ar also declared India’s intention to continue to buy Russian oil, again disregarding the US appeal to allies and partners to isolate Russia from the global markets.The G-7 plans are likely to send oil prices higher (despite US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claiming the opposite) and reduce tanker availability, both of which will threaten India’s energy security and hurt its economy as India is the third-largest consumer and importer of oil worldwide.Russia has said it will not sell to any countries that participate in the price cap scheme, and Jaishankar has repeatedly stated that India cannot afford to buy oil at high prices – at least not without undermining its economic growth, which is forecast to be 6.1 percent in 2023, the fastest-growing major economy in the world. According to Energy Intelligence:Russia emerged as India’s top crude supplier in October, shipping over 900,000 barrels per day or roughly a fifth of India’s demand. The two countries’ biggest concern is ensuring that Russian oil continues to flow after the Dec. 5 EU and UK bans and related G7 price cap.But despite Jaishankar’s bullish stance in Moscow, India’s state refiners have not placed orders for crude lifting beyond Dec. 5 due to uncertainties about whether shipping and insurance will be available, Energy Intelligence understands. And a recent attempt by an Indian buyer to use the price cap in negotiations with a Russian seller prompted the latter to abandon the deal, market sources said.The ongoing lack of clarity on the G-7 could be by design. Russian oil exports have already begun to dip, and Bruce Paulsen, a sanctions expert and partner at law firm Seward & Kissel, told American Shipper, “ If guidance on [price cap] compliance doesn’t come soon, some industry players may sit on the sidelines until they can determine that shipments under the price cap are safe.”The US, in a neat sleight of hand, quit pressuring India to adhere to the price cap, and Yellen now says Washington is “happy” for New Delhi to continue buying as much Russian oil as it wants, including at prices above a G7-imposed price cap. But there are just a few caveats: India wouldn’t be able to use western insurance, finance, or maritime services to transport the oil.“Russia is going to find it very difficult to continue shipping as much oil as they have done when the EU stops buying Russian oil,” Yellen told Reuters on Friday. “They’re going to be heavily in search of buyers, and many buyers are reliant on Western services.”

CIA & Russian Intel Chiefs Meet In Turkey To Discuss Nuclear Tensions - In a rare diplomatic opening of dialogue after nine months of war in Ukraine, CIA Director William Burns is in Turkey on Monday for talks with his Russian counterpart aimed at reducing nuclear tensions between the two superpowers. Burns is holding the talks with Sergey Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, or SVR, in Turkey's capital of Ankara. This marks the highest-ranking face-to-face meeting between US and Russian officials since President Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on Feb.24. The Kremlin confirmed that the meeting is taking place at Washington's request. "Such negotiations really took place. It was the initiative of the American side," TASS quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying. According to Al Jazeera, citing regional sources, "Burns reportedly warned Naryshkin of the consequences Russia would face in the event it used nuclear weapons in Ukraine."The two intelligence chiefs are said to not be discussing settlement of the Ukraine war, but are focusing on the potential for a prisoner exchange between the US and Russia, as well as the de-escalation of nuclear tensions.According to a White House national security official cited by The Associated Press:The official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Burns and Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s SVR spy agency, would not discuss settlement of the war in Ukraine. Burns is expected to raise the cases of Phoenix Mercury star Brittney Griner and Michigan corporate security executive Paul Whelan, two Americans detained in Russia whom the Biden administration has been pressing to release in a prisoner exchange. Washington and NATO allies have long accused President Putin of making nuclear threats while citing 'red lines' in Ukraine - something which Putin has denied, explaining his words were taken out context. The Kremlin has repeatedly said its nuclear doctrine has not changed, explaining that it will only use nukes if Russian territory and sovereignty comes under direct existential threat.

Biden Unveils $37BN More In Emergency Ukraine Aid On Heels Of Polish Border 'Attack' -At the close of a wild roller-coaster of a day following the alleged "Russian missile attack" on a Polish border town, and despite little to nothing in the way of official confirmation of just what happened or whodunnit, and urgent phone calls flying between Western heads of state pledging "solidarity" - it's perfect timing for the US to shovel out another nearly $40 billion to Ukraine..."President Joe Biden is asking Congress to provide more than $37 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine, a massive infusion of cash that could help support the nation as Russian forces suffer battlefield losses in their nine-month-old invasion," Reuters is reporting late in the day. Biden unveiled the proposed massive aid infusion while at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. It was also announced just as President Biden held a phone call with Poland's President Andrzej Duda following the explosion in the village of Przewodów. Biden offered Poland "full U.S support for and assistance with Poland’s investigation" and "reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to NATO," according to a call readout. The two leaders also vowed to remain in "close touch to determine appropriate next steps as the investigation proceeds."According to a breakdown of the fresh aid proposed for Ukraine, it includes "$21.7 billion for military, intelligence and other defense support, $14.5 billion in humanitarian aid and to help keep the Ukrainian government functioning, $900 million for health care and support services for Ukrainians living in the U.S. and $626 million for nuclear security support to Ukraine and for modernizing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve."This follows Ukraine's President Zelensky urging more, more, more weapons and funding, especially missiles, artillery shells, and anti-air defense systems. According to more from Reuters, "Shalanda Young, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said that more than three-fourths of the $40 billion approved by Congress earlier this year for Ukraine has already been disbursed or committed."The precise figure of what the Biden administration is now asking anew totals $37.7 billion in support.

Poland Missile Strike May Have Come From Ukraine Self-Defense- US Officials -- So much for Russia almost starting World War 3 (even if under the guise of a false flag). As we noted earlier (see below), even pro-Ukraine accounts noted that the S-300 SAM that fell in Poland was a Ukrainian one. And while Biden will never admit that Ukraine nearly started war with Poland (as much as the deep state via its AP connections or the Ukraine president would have wanted Russia to get the blame), moments ago Biden explicitly said that based on preliminary information, it is "unlikely" that the rocket strike in Poland originated in Russia. Oops.“There is plenty of information to contest that. I don’t want to say until we completely investigate. It’s unlikely in the minds of [sic] the trajectory that it was fired from Russia. But we’ll see."So if it was not fired by Russia, where was it fired from? The missile that struck Poland may have been fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, AP reports, citing three unidentified US officials.[K]ey questions around the circumstances of the missile launch remained amid the confusion caused by a blistering series of Russian airstrikes across the nearby border in Ukraine, none larger than who fired it. Russia denied any involvement in the Poland blast.Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. -APThe Associated Press also points out that the above assessment, in addition to President Biden's comments that it was "unlikely" the missile was fired from Russia, contradicts information earlier Tuesday from a senior US intelligence official who told AP "that Russian missiles crossed into Poland."So it was a 'stray' missile after all?

Biden said Ukraine air defence missile responsible for Poland blast - NATO source (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden told G7 and NATO partners that a missile blast in eastern Poland was caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile, a NATO source told Reuters on Wednesday. The blast, which killed two people, raised global alarm that the Ukraine conflict could spill into neighbouring countries. Ukraine blamed Russia. Russia denied its missiles struck Poland. Biden told reporters in Indonesia on Wednesday that the missile was unlikely to have been fired from Russia. NATO ambassadors were scheduled to hold an emergency meeting at 1000 CET (0900 GMT) to respond to the explosion at a grain dryer near the Ukrainian border, which occurred while Russia was firing scores of missiles at cities across Ukraine.

Poland, NATO say missile that killed two likely fired by Ukraine defending against Russian attack - — The leaders of Poland and NATO said the missile that killed two people in Polish territory on Tuesday was likely fired by Ukrainian forces defending their country against a barrage of Russian strikes, and that the incident appeared to be an accident. The blast occurred outside the village outside the rural eastern Polish village of Przewodow, about four miles (6.4 kilometers) west from the Ukrainian border on Tuesday afternoon, roughly the same time as Russia launched its biggest wave of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in more than a month. On Wednesday, Polish President Andrzej Duda told a press conference that there was a “high chance” it was an air defense missile from the Ukrainian side and likely had fallen in Poland in “an accident” while intercepting incoming Russian missiles. “There is no indication that this was an intentional attack on Poland. Most likely, it was a Russian-made S-300 rocket,” Duda said in a tweet earlier Wednesday. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used Russian-made munitions during the conflict, including the S-300 surface-to-air missile system, which Kyiv has deployed as part of its air defenses. The incident in Poland, a NATO country, prompted ambassadors from the US-led military alliance to hold an emergency meeting in Brussels Wednesday. The missile landed outside the rural village of Przewodów.NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg too said there was no indication the incident was the result of a deliberate attack by either side, and that Ukrainian forces were not to blame for defending their country from Russia’s assault.“Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by the Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks,” Stoltenberg said. “But let me be clear, this is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.Stoltenberg also said there were no signs that Russia was planning to attack NATO countries, in comments that appeared to be intended to defuse escalating tensions.

 Western nations hustle to sync up with Ukraine, each other on missile strike - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s insistence that Russia was behind a deadly missile strike in Poland — despite American intelligence indicating the missile was Ukrainian — has U.S. officials pushing to more closely coordinate messaging with allies, including Kyiv, on the explosion.Over the last two days, top U.S. officials have reached out to European leaders and officials in Zelenskyy’s office, urging caution when speaking about what led to the explosion, according to two Western officials and a U.S. official. In a series of urgent phone calls, American officials requested that NATO allies refrain from issuing definitive statements until the completion of the investigation in Poland, one of the Western officials said. The outreach came after a series of mixed messages about the owner of the missile and who bore responsibility for the strike. Following the explosion Tuesday, Zelenskyy said in a speech that Russia fired the missile that killed two people in Poland. The next day, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the missile was likely Ukrainian.The varying statements illustrate one of the first major divergences in opinion between Washington and Kyiv — an alliance that, for the most part, has acted in a swift, coordinated fashion for nearly nine months to help Ukraine beat back Russian advances. U.S. officials are downplaying the differences, but the possibility that the war will continue through the winter means more such fractures could emerge — and Moscow could exploit them.The confusion spawned by the missile blast was a “really important test run” for the United States, its NATO allies and Ukraine, said Heather Conley, a former State Department official with expertise in Europe.“I think we all learned a pretty valuable lesson in [that] you cannot say something right off the bat until you understand what it is … because the stakes are so high right now,” said Conley, now president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Overall, Conley said, most countries involved did well, but “you can tell we still have work to do.”The missile hit southeastern Poland on Tuesday just as Russia had ramped up its missile attacks on Ukraine. The incident raised global alarms given that Poland is in NATO and a Russian attack on its soil could have prompted a response by the military alliance.Zelenskyy and some of his aides quickly blamed the Kremlin. But over the next 24 hours, U.S., NATO and Polish leaders said evidence suggested the strike in Poland likely originated from a Ukrainian air defense missile trying to thwart a Russian strike.

US Empire Views Ukrainians And Russians As Lab Rats For Weapons Testing – Caitlin Johnstone - A surprisingly frank article by The New York Times titled “Western Allies Look to Ukraine as a Testing Ground for Weapons” describes how the imperial war machine is capitalising on the US proxy war to test its weapons for future use.“Ukraine has become a testing ground for state-of-the-art weapons and information systems, and new ways to use them, that Western political officials and military commanders predict could shape warfare for generations to come,” write’s NYT’s Lara Jakes. Jakes writes that “new advances in technology and training in Ukraine are being closely monitored for the ways they are changing the face of the fight.” These new technological advancements include an information system known as elta, as well as “remote-controlled boats, anti-drone weapons known as SkyWipers and an updated version of an air-defense system built in Germany that the German military itself has yet to use.” A former Lithuanian president is quoted as saying, “We’re learning in Ukraine how to fight, and we’re learning how to use our NATO equipment,” adding, “It is shameful for me because Ukrainians are paying with their lives for these exercises for us.” Yeah, no shit.

Journalistic Responsibility Vanishes When Reporting On US-Targeted Nations – Caitlin Johnstone -- Two false news reports have gone viral in recent hours due to sloppy sourcing and journalistic malpractice. As usual they both featured bogus claims about US-targeted nations, in this case Russia and Iran. An article in Responsible Statecraft titled “How a lightly-sourced AP story almost set off World War III” details how the propaganda multiplier news agency published a one-source, one-sentence reportclaiming that Russia had launched a deadly missile strike at NATO member Poland, despite evidencehaving already come to light by that point that the missile had probably come from Ukraine. This set off calls for the implementation of a NATO Article 5 response, meaning hot warfare between NATO and Russia in retaliation for a Russian attack on one of the alliance members. Mainstream news reports circulated the narrative that Poland had been struck by a “Russian-made” missile, which is at best a highly misleading framing of the fact that the inadvertent strike came from a Soviet-era surface-to-air missile system still used by Ukraine, a former Soviet state. Headlines from the largest and most influential US news outlets like The New York Times, CNN and NBC all repeated the misleading “Russian-made” framing, as did AP’s own correction to its false report that Poland was struck by Russia. All current evidence indicates that Poland was accidentally hit by one of those missiles while Ukraine was defending itself from Russian missile strikes. President Biden has said it’s “unlikely” that the missile which killed two Poles came from Russia, while Polish president Andrzej Duda and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg both said it looks like it was an accidental strike from Ukrainian air defenses. Russia says its own missile strikes have been no closer than 35 km from the Polish border. The only party still adamantly insisting that the strike did come from Russia is Ukraine, leading an exasperated diplomat from a NATO country to anonymously tell Financial Times: “This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.” It is very sleazy for AP to continue to protect the anonymity of the US official who fed them a lie of such immense significance and potential consequence. They should tell the world who it was who initiated that lie so we can demand explanations and accountability. Another false story that went extremely viral was one that Newsweek has been forced to extensively revise and correct that was initially titled “Iran Votes to Execute Protesters, Says Rebels Need ‘Hard Lesson’,” but is now titled “Iran Parliament Chants ‘Death to Seditionists’ in Protest Punishment Call.” The latest correction notice now reads, “This article and headline were updated to remove the reference to the Iranian Parliament voting for death sentences. A majority of the parliament supported a letter to the judiciary calling for harsh punishments of protesters, which could include the death penalty.” Moon of Alabama explains how the Newsweek piece was the springboard that launched the viral false claim that the Iranian government had just sentenced 15,000 protesters to death, which was circulated by countless politicians, pundits and celebrities throughout social media. This claim has been debunked by mainstream outlets like NBC News, who explains that “There has been no evidence that 15,000 protesters have been sentenced to death. Two protesters had been sentenced to death as of Tuesday, although they can appeal, according to state news agencies.”

U.S. moves to shield Saudi crown prince in Khashoggi killing - The Biden administration declared Thursday that the high office held by Saudi Arabia’s crown prince should shield him from lawsuits for his role in the killing of a U.S.-based journalist, a turnaround from Joe Biden’s passionate campaign trail denunciations of Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the brutal slaying. The administration said the prince’s official standing should give him immunity in the lawsuit filed by the fiancée of slain Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi and by the rights group he founded, Democracy for the Arab World Now. The request is non-binding and a judge will ultimately decide whether to grant immunity. But it is bound to anger human rights activists and many U.S. lawmakers, coming as Saudi Arabia has stepped up imprisonment and other retaliation against peaceful critics at home and abroad and has cut oil production, a move seen as undercutting efforts by the U.S. and its allies to punish Russia for its war against Ukraine. The State Department on Thursday called the administration’s decision to try to protect the Saudi crown prince from U.S. courts in Khashoggi’s killing “purely a legal determination.” And despite backing up the crown prince in his bid to block the lawsuit against him, the State Department “takes no view on the merits of the present suit and reiterates its unequivocal condemnation of the heinous murder of Jamal Khashoggi,” the administration’s court filing late Thursday said. Saudi officials killed Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. They are believed to have dismembered him, although his remains have never been found. The U.S. intelligence community concluded Saudi Arabia’s crown prince had approved the killing of the widely known and respected journalist, who had written critically of Prince Mohammed’s harsh ways of silencing of those he considered rivals or critics. The Biden administration statement Thursday noted visa restrictions and other penalties that it had meted out to lower-ranking Saudi officials in the death. Biden as a candidate vowed to make a “pariah” out of Saudi rulers over the 2018 killing of Khashoggi.

What a Republican House means for energy - Ahead of the midterm elections, many Republicans hoped a red wave would put pressure on the Biden administration’s energy agenda and help reverse it. But any plan to slow down clean energy spending looks more limited now, even as the GOP claimed a majority in the House yesterday. Republicans now have at least 218 House seats, ensuring a slim majority with seven races yet to be called. Democrats are already assured of keeping control of the Senate, meaning Republicans will have a harder time getting their way on appropriations and any plans for permitting reform. Still, Republicans will have power in the House to conduct oversight investigations and hold hearings on how the Biden administration spends billions of dollars in loans and grants passed in this year’s Inflation Reduction Act and last year’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), who is in line to become chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has likened the climate law to “Solyndra on steroids” and vowed strict oversight that could slow down the distribution of grants.“I think you’ll see efforts to make it very difficult for the Biden administration. There could also be efforts to complicate the Biden administration moving forward through executive action,” said Barry Rabe, professor of public policy at the University of Michigan.An October letter from committee Republicans to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm previewed likely avenues of investigation on energy policy, asking for the portfolio of the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office and information about the review process for loan guarantee decisions (Greenwire, Oct. 11).The climate law was not a centerpiece of GOP fury in the way the Affordable Care Act was in the 2010 midterms, but it did not get a single Republican vote in either chamber.

House Republicans prepare big energy package for 2023 - House Republican leaders said Thursday the party is preparing an energy and environment package that could emerge in January as one of the first pieces of major legislation passed by the GOP-controlled chamber. Largely based on legislation already put forward by the top Republican on the Energy and Commerce Committee, Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington, and the Natural Resources Committee’s top Republican, Bruce Westerman of Arkansas, the package would seek to unleash domestic fossil fuel production along with critical mineral mining. The package will follow an edict from Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who has indicated on multiple occasions that energy policies to help attain American “energy independence” and lowering energy prices would be among the House’s first priorities. “We need to return to American energy independence and bring down gas prices, and that’s unleashing American energy,” McMorris Rodgers told reporters yesterday. McMorris Rodgers confirmed discussions are underway to fine-tune what the package will contain. She said that the foundation would likely come from the “American Energy Independence From Russia Act,” H.R. 6858, and “Securing America’s Mineral Supply Chains Act,” H.R. 8991. Introduced in the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the first of the bills would offer a host of policies that would undercut Biden administration energy decisions, including a restoration of the approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, directions to offer public lands for fossil fuel production and efforts to streamline liquefied natural gas exports, among other areas. The bill reads as a list of Republican gripes against the alleged slow-walking of fossil fuel project approvals by the Biden administration. Republicans have attempted to press Democrats to back the bill on multiple occasions this year using parliamentary tactics. Each attempt was rebuffed on party lines. The critical mineral portion of the package emerged later this year as Republicans headed into the midterm elections. Republicans said the bill would help unleash hardrock mining to help address a rash of critical minerals supply woes that have helped increase the cost of energy. The bill would look to streamline permit approvals for critical mineral mining and includes provisions that would limit the Biden administration from restricting lease withdrawals and mineral mining on existing federal land grants without an act of Congress.

5 energy, environment issues in bull's-eye for House GOP - Republicans clinched a narrow House majority Wednesday night, and executive agencies are now bracing for a flood of GOP-led oversight inquiries into Biden administration energy and environment decisionmaking. Republican lawmakers have made clear which policies and people they want investigated. For nearly two years, GOP committee chairs have fired off dozens of letters to agencies seeking information. Republicans will now have subpoena power to demand cooperation. “We will devote the resources necessary for this House to go toe-to-toe with the Executive branch, especially as it pertains to oversight and holding the Biden administration accountable for its mismanagement of our country,” Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said in a Dear Colleague letter last week announcing his bid for speaker of the House. Over the summer, GOP lawmakers on both the Natural Resources and Energy & Commerce committees offered a preview of their 2023 efforts. Using a procedural tactic known as a “resolution of inquiry,” they forced failed votes on Republican-led efforts seeking documents and communications on a host of administration actions. Those actions included domestic fossil fuel production, public lands leasing, energy reliability and energy costs, among other areas. Republicans have hammered Democrats on gasoline prices over the past year and during campaign season. Their main argument: The Biden administration is actively undercutting domestic oil and gas production. They have criticized the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline, the pace of permitting for new oil and gas leases on federal lands, and the formation of the new five-year offshore leasing program. Thus far, Republicans have been met with indifference from the administration. They’re looking to change that. “We’ve sent a lot of letters over to the administration that have gone unanswered,” House Natural Resources ranking member Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) said earlier this summer. Oversight Committee Republicans released their own report last week, in which they allege the Biden administration has not done enough to support the development of domestic oil and gas. “Democrats have weaponized their unchecked power to wage a war against American-made energy production and push radical, far-left Green New Deal policies that jeopardize Americans’ ability to power their homes,” ranking member James Comer (R-Ky.) said in a statement. In the lead-up to the election, Republicans have criticized the administration’s depletion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to bolster global supplies, arguing that the move to lower prices has endangered national security (Energywire, Oct. 24). Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight ranking member Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) indicated his subcommittee was unlikely to focus much on the producer side of the equation as Democrats have for much of 2022. Instead, he says he wants to investigate what he sees as an overemphasis on renewable energy research and development at the Department of Energy at the expense of fossil fuels.

GOP infrastructure feud could hinder bipartisan deals - Senate Republicans are feuding over last year’s bipartisan infrastructure law, part of a larger debate about the party’s leadership after a disappointing midterm election. The internal strife could shape how Republicans engage with the Biden administration in a divided Congress next year, with some conservatives arguing the infrastructure vote hurt them at the ballot box. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who unsuccessfully challenged Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell for the minority leader post Wednesday, has blamed the GOP senators who voted for the “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act” for “spending like drunken sailors” and contributing to a “losing message” this election season. Comments from Scott and other colleagues have prompted pushback from moderates and conservatives alike. “Infrastructure is resonating back home. Infrastructure is what makes somebody in a small town think that their town can come back … that has played so well,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), one of the 19 Senate Republicans who voted for the infrastructure bill. “I have to say that I think the people who didn’t vote for it have regrets. I got nothing but positives.” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said, “That was such a good example, in my mind, of people demonizing not just a couple of, not just an occasional, but a pretty large block of Republicans. And quite honestly, for me personally, 40 Republicans could have voted for that bill and felt good about it and defended it.” The bill has become a selling point for the Biden administration on climate and the environment because it includes billions of dollars for electric vehicle charging and zero emission vehicles. But it became an anti-Biden messaging tool for the majority of Republicans who opposed it in Congress. Republican Rep. Alex Mooney won his primary in West Virginia by relentlessly attacking fellow Republican David McKinley for the latter’s vote for the infrastructure bill (E&E Daily, May 9). Mooney has already announced he plans to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in the 2024 election (Greenwire, Nov. 15).Those who voted for the law believe infrastructure has always been something voters on both sides of the aisle support — indeed, the Trump administration had for years promised some sort of infrastructure legislation but never got close to passing anything.

Climate hawks say midterms prove environment is a top voter issue -Democrats’ performance in the midterm elections has emboldened activists and climate hawks who say that voters were concerned about the environment even amid persistently high U.S. gas and energy costs.Forecasters predicted a “red wave” election due to inflation — largely driven by fuel costs — and President Biden’s unpopularity. But Democrats held on to the Senate, and they appear likely to lose the House majority by a razor-thin margin.Exit polling indicated that despite high energy prices, and Republican attempts to tie them to Democratic policies, 9 percent of voters ranked climate change as their top issue — the same amount of people who said immigration was a top concern and more than those who answered the same for crime.Pete Maysmith, senior vice president of campaigns at the League of Conservation Voters, said the results stand in sharp contrast to the Republican rout of 2010. While those midterms are largely remembered as a referendum on the Affordable Care Act, he noted they were also marked by intense attacks on the 2009 emissions-trading “cap and trade” bill. The measure passed the House but never received a Senate vote, and Sen. Joe Manchin(D-W.Va.) famously ran a campaign ad in which he shot a paper copy of it with a rifle. Meanwhile, Maysmith said, 2022 saw the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the most ambitious climate bill in U.S. history, and no such backlash developed.

Biden got unexpectedly good election results — but also 2 years of gridlock - President Joe Biden enjoyed a historic midterm election result, one that only the most optimistic Democrat could have imagined. But his White House is still set to face some tough new realities.On Monday, Biden conceded at a press conference that his party was unlikely to hold on to the House, noting that the few remaining toss-up races were tilted toward the GOP.Should it come true, a new era could be inaugurated in Washington — one likely to be defined by both chaos and dysfunction within a bare-thin GOP majority and gridlock and partisan trench warfare between that chamber and the White House. The White House will need to avert a potentially calamitous standoff over the debt ceiling and circumvent a wave of new investigations. Beyond that, there is fear of grinding budget battles and brinkmanship that could undercut Biden’s ability to govern and tie his hands should the economy sputter.Having spent two years guided by Biden’s fervent belief that government can accomplish big things, the next challenge facing Democrats may be ensuring it remains functional.“The opening expectation is it’s going to be very difficult to get anything done legislatively,” an adviser to the White House said. “Fundamental activities like raising the debt ceiling and funding the government are going to be put in doubt.”Under the likely new congressional composition, Biden will hardly be powerless. Democrats held onto their Senate majority and even have a shot at expanding it with a win in Georgia next month, allowing the White House to continue reshaping the nation’s judiciary and making executive branch appointments. The slimness of a GOP majority makes it less likely that they can mount successful standoffs over things like the debt ceiling or government funding.But even a tiny GOP House majority represents major hurdles for the president, who no longer will have the full Democratic control he enjoyed in ushering through a remarkable slate of legislation: from Covid relief to a bipartisan infrastructure bill to long-held Democratic priorities on climate change and health care.

Voters of color did move to the right — just not at the rates predicted - Both parties warned for months of an imminent red wave among voters of color, forecasting that the GOP would build further on gains made in the 2020 presidential race. But while every racial group moved right this year, especially among men, the shift fell short of expectations.And Democrats should be wary of declaring victory on this front and moving on, multiple strategists said, noting that any erosion among the party’s core constituencies should be taken seriously — and addressed with more planning and purpose ahead of the 2024 presidential race.Terrance Woodbury, CEO of progressive research firm HIT Strategies, credited new voters from 2018 and 2020, as well as younger voters, for showing up for Democrats on Tuesday to buck the earlier projections.“Our initial take is that while Democrats have stopped the bleeding among people of color, they haven’t reversed the trend,” he said.Democrats won among Black, Hispanic and Asian and Pacific Islander voters in the 2022 midterms, while the majority of white voters and Native Americans went for Republicans, according to exit polls conducted by major networks and Edison Research. But compared to the 2018 midterms, Hispanic and Asian support for the GOP jumped 10 and 17 points respectively, while Black voters shifted about 4 points to the right. When contrasted with 2020 — a presidential election year fueled by a push to remove former President Donald Trump from office — the movement in favor of Republicans is in the single digits.

Nancy Pelosi will step down as top House Democrat after two decades - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who broke Congress’s glass ceiling as the first woman to hold the post, announced Thursday she will not seek reelection as the House Democratic caucus’s top leader, ending one of the most consequential leadership tenures in American political history.“For me, the hour’s come for a new generation to lead the Democratic caucus that I so deeply respect,” Pelosi said in a speech on the House floor Thursday afternoon. She will continue to serve as a member of the House.Her decision to not seek reelection as the top Democrat in Congress’s lower chamber marks the culmination of a political career widely seen as setting the standard for wielding political power. Historians largely agree that Pelosi redefined the speakership, and she made history climbing the ranks of Democratic leadership, becoming the first womanto be second in line to the presidency — twice.In her more than three decades serving in the House, Pelosi earned a reputation for amassing power in the face of male colleagues who at times undermined her opinions, and she earned respect by delivering votes on her party’s top priorities, even if that meant twisting the arms of her colleagues to take a bill over the finish line. Pelosi’s ability to keep her caucus in line has led to bipartisan recognition that she alone may be capable of wrangling Democrats’ disparate factions. She led the House Democratic caucus through a bitter fight in 2010 to pass the Affordable Care Act, and most recently managed a razor-thin majority in passing several key pieces of President Biden’s legislative agenda. The White House said in a statement that Biden spoke with Pelosi on Thursday morning and “congratulated her on her historic tenure.” Pelosi’s decision to step back has been somewhat expected. She said in 2020 that she would not seek reelection to a leadership position, but she revealed little about her intentions outside a small and extremely loyal circle of trusted confidants, and her plans were never fully clear.

Who is Hakeem Jeffries? -Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is poised to succeed a history-making woman and make history of his own.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the first woman to hold that position, announced Thursday that she would step down as the top Democrat, paving the way for Jeffries, 52, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, to seek the job. If elected by House Democrats, Jeffries would become the first Black lawmaker to lead a party in Congress.In a statement, Jeffries paid tribute to Pelosi but made no mention of his plans to seek the leadership job, although his move has been widely reported. Pelosi “is the most accomplished Speaker in American history and our country is unquestionably better off for her extraordinary leadership.” He went on to call her “the steady hand on the gavel during some of the most turbulent times the nation has ever confronted.” Jeffries, in a nod to their history-making rise in the House, added: “The Speaker often reminds us that our diversity is our strength. I know we will draw on that wisdom as we come together as a Caucus to begin a new chapter.”One of Pelosi’s longtime colleagues, House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.), announced that he also will step down from his leadership post. Jeffries is expected to be joined by Reps. Katherine M. Clark (D-Mass.) and Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), who will seek the No. 2 and No. 3 positions, respectively.Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.) will leave his post as House majority whip but become an assistant leader, a position that will now be fourth in the leadership structure.Jeffries, a lawyer, is from central Brooklyn, the epicenter of New York’s Democratic power. He is a self-described progressive who has forged relationships with Democratic establishment figures in Washington while navigating the ascending left in his backyard.He took office in 2013 and has been chair of the House Democratic Caucus, a leadership post, since 2019. In that role, he has been the youngest member of leadership.With the moves on Thursday, House Democrats were on the cusp of significant generational change — from octogenarians such as Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn, to Jeffries; Clark, 59; and Aguilar, 43. Leadership elections are the week of Nov. 28, and the party appeared unified behind the new slate.

Departing lawmakers are lining up cushy lobbying gigs -- The latest mad dash of soon-departing lawmakers trying to land a comfy K Street gig has begun.Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.), who announced his retirement last year after state Republicans redrew his district, is headed to the law firm McGuireWoods, according to two Democratic lobbyists. And fellow retiring congressman, Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.) has been speaking with the powerhouse lobbying and law firm Squire Patton Boggs, according to two Democratic lobbyists.“It’s that time of year,” said Ivan Adler, a recruiter who specializes in the lobbying industry. “There, absolutely, will be a lot of fresh faces on K Street come January,” he said.Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), who also decided against running for another term, could be among them. She has had conversations with Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, according to two Democratic lobbyists. Bustos’ spokesperson told POLITICO that the congresswoman had not yet made a final decision on her next steps but that she “had conversations with a wide array of organizations in many different sectors.” Bustos still intended to complete her term, the spokesperson said.Those headed for the exits follow a storied history of former lawmakers cashing in on their public service in Washington. Rules exist to prevent lawmakers from exerting undue influence on their former colleagues, but little blocks them from selling their experience to potential employers.Former lawmakers are prohibited from directly lobbying their former colleagues during a “cooling-off period” that lasts one year for House members and two years for senators.However, they may begin advising clients (except for foreign political parties and governments intending to influence the government) immediately. In that capacity, they can offer guidance on the inner workings of their congressional conference, a more personal understanding of specific member’s interests, and access to their list of contacts.That kind of advising is referred to as “shadow lobbying,” said Jeff Hauser, founder of the Revolving Door Project, a group focused on corporate influence and the federal government. Hauser said there was little enforcement mechanism for those congressional rules beyond the press.Beyond Bustos, it’s unclear whether any of the members in current talks with lobbying firms will leave Congress before the end of their Jan. 3 term. Were they to do so, it could complicate the Democratic Party’s efforts to move a number of lame duck legislative initiatives.

 Customs and Border Protection commissioner resigns - Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Chris Magnus has resigned, according to a statement from the White House released Saturday evening.Magnus had clashed with immigration officials over how to handle an influx of migrants at the southern border, lost the confidence of his bosses and been asked to resign or be fired, POLITICO reported Friday.“The President has accepted the resignation of Christopher Magnus, the Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement. “President Biden appreciates Commissioner Magnus’ nearly forty years of service and the contributions he made to police reform during his tenure as police chief in three U.S. cities. The President thanks Mr. Magnus for his service at CBP and wishes him well.”Magnus submitted his resignation “effective immediately” to President Joe Biden, thanking the administration “for this tremendous opportunity.”Magnus was told on Wednesday by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas that he should either resign or be dismissed, according to three current and one former Department of Homeland Security officials.POLITICO reported in October that five current administration officials who worked with Magnus said he was unengaged in his job, saying he often failed to attend White House meetings on the situation on the border, badmouthed other agencies to colleagues and superiors, and had not built relationships within CBP and across other immigration agencies to address the influx of migrants at the border.Several also said he fell asleep in numerous meetings, which Magnus attributed to the effects of his multiple sclerosis. Mayorkas told the CBP workforce on Saturday night that deputy CBP commissioner Troy Miller is now acting commissioner of the agency.

"Invasion Clause" Triggered In Texas As Migrants Overwhelm Border -Texas Governor Greg Abbott has invoked the state's "Invasion Clauses" to take measures against a record-setting influx of migrants who are illegally crossing the border. "I invoked the Invasion Clauses of the U.S. & Texas Constitutions to fully authorize Texas to take unprecedented measures to defend our state against an invasion," Abbott tweeted Tuesday morning. As part of the action, Abbott plans to;

• Deploy the National Guard to safeguard the border, and to repel and turn back immigrants trying to cross the border illegally
• Deploy the Texas Dept. of Public Safety (DPS) to arrest and return immigrants to the border who crossed illegally, and to arrest illegal immigrants for criminal activity;
• Build a wall in multiple counties on the border;
• Deploy gun boats;
• Designate Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations;
• Enter into a compact with other states to secure the border;
• Enter into agreements with foreign powers to enhance border security;
• Provide resources for border counties to increase their efforts to respond to the “border invasion.”

I invoked the Invasion Clauses of the U.S. & Texas Constitutions to fully authorize Texas to take unprecedented measures to defend our state against an invasion.
I'm using that constitutional authority, & other authorization & Executive Orders to keep our state & country safe: pic.twitter.com/2Jt5HEMgp5 — Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) November 15, 2022 As Breitbart News notes;The move by the Texas governor comes after back-to-back record years of migrant border apprehensions following changes in policies by the Biden administration. Official reports from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show the apprehension of more than 2.2 million migrants in the just ended Fiscal Year 2022 and nearly 1.7 million in Fiscal Year 2021. During the last full year of the Trump administration agents apprehended only 400,000 migrants.Nearly two-thirds of migrant apprehensions occur in the five Texas-based Border Patrol sectors, according to reports from CBP. This amounts to 1.26 million migrants in FY22.The governor’s order on Tuesday represents the next step in an increasing response to the lack of action by the federal government to secure the U.S.-Mexico border — particularly in Texas.

In letter to Biden: Doctors and nurses warn of “breaking point” in hospital ERs - A letter to the Biden administration jointly penned last week by 33 medical groups, that include the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and Emergency Nurses Association (ENA), paints a devastating picture of the ongoing crisis that is overtaking emergency departments across the country.The letter was sent to President Joe Biden with a copy to Secretary Xavier Becerra of the Department of Health and Human Services and Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of the US Department of Homeland Security. The letter’s authors asked for a summit of health care leaders to carry out urgent collective action to address the evolving crisis, in which “Emergency departments (EDs) have been brought to a breaking point.” There has not been a word by the Biden administration in response to the nine-page letter. In the wake of the midterm elections, prosecution of the war in Ukraine and otherwise pursuing the interests of American imperialism remain foremost on the White House’s agenda. While all its attention goes to foreign policy, all mitigation measures against the COVID pandemic have been lifted ahead of what is likely to be a devastating winter of disease and death. After acknowledging the impact of the pandemic on the population and frontline health care workers, the letter begins by stating: “Our nation’s safety net is on the verge of breaking beyond repair; EDs are gridlocked and overwhelmed with patients waiting—waiting to be seen; waiting for admission to an inpatient bed in the hospital; waiting to be transferred to psychiatric, skilled nursing, or other specialized facilities; or, waiting simply to return to their nursing home. And this breaking point is entirely outside the control of the highly skilled emergency physicians, nurses, and other ED staff doing their best to keep everyone attended to and alive.” As the ACEP notes, the number of patients who are being held in emergency departments awaiting care, also known as boarding, has reached a crisis level. The letter underscored that the staffing levels are dangerously low and wait times are worse now than at any other point in the pandemic. The Joint Commission has defined boarding as “the practice of holding patients in the emergency department or another temporary location after the decision to admit or transfer has been made.” Current standards require that boarding times not exceed four hours, to avoid increased mortality and length of hospital stays. The violation of the “standard of care” is a particular problem for the poorest sections of the working class, especially those who lack health insurance or find it difficult to access their primary care practitioners. The ACEP wrote on its website, “Emergency care teams are strained to their limits. Demand for emergency care and services show no signs of slowing as we head straight towards this winter’s ‘triple threat’ of flu, COVID-19, and pediatric respiratory illnesses like RSV that are filling emergency departments. The influx of patients only piles more stress onto the shoulders of emergency physicians who are doing all they can to treat anyone who needs them.” As one anonymous ED physician explained to the ACEP, more than half of ED beds at their facility are filled with boarder patients. At one point, there were 35 boarders in a 22-bed ED and an additional 20 patients in the waiting room. Average patient boarding times ran to 70 hours, or almost three days, and the longest patient stay last month was over 200 hours. The doctor added, “In addition, we have patients who unfortunately have died in our waiting room while awaiting treatment. These deaths were entirely due to boarding. Our boarding numbers have unfortunately skyrocketed in the wake of COVID as a consequence of increasing surgical volumes and decreasing inpatient nurse staffing. Our tertiary care center is crippled with no end in sight.”

 Biden will ask Supreme Court to revive student debt relief plan – The Biden administration will ask the Supreme Court to revive its student debt relief program as it fights to reverse lower court rulings that have upended its plans to forgive up to $20,000 of debt for tens of millions of Americans.The Justice Department said in a court filing on Thursday that it planned to ask the Supreme Court to reverse an injunction issued earlier this week by the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals that prohibits the administration from carrying out student debt relief.Separately, the Justice Department is asking the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals to put on hold a decision by a district court judge in Texas to strike down the debt relief program as illegal. The DOJ asked for a ruling from that appeals court by Dec. 1 “to allow the government to seek relief from the Supreme Court” if needed.The various emergency requests by the Biden administration tee up what could be the most consequential Supreme Court showdown yet over President Joe Biden’s debt relief policy in the coming weeks.Justice Amy Coney Barrett has twice rejected preliminary requests in other lawsuits to block Biden’s debt relief program. But neither case had addressed the legal merits of the program.The lawsuit now heading to the Supreme Court was brought by six Republican state officials who are trying to stop Biden’s debt relief program, which they have slammed as unfair and unconstitutional. The ruling earlier this week by the 8th Circuit found that at least one of the states, Missouri, had standing to bring the case. The three-judge panel unanimously voted to pause Biden’s debt relief program while the lawsuit plays out.The other lawsuit, in the 5th Circuit, was filed by the Jobs Creator Network Foundation, a conservative group, on behalf of two student loan borrowers who were fully or partially excluded from the debt relief plan. The Biden administration is asking the appeals court to put on hold a lower court ruling by District Judge Mark Pittman, a Trump appointee, who declared the program unconstitutional.

Biden asks Supreme Court to allow student-debt relief plan - President Biden called on the U.S. Supreme Court to let his student-loan relief plan take effect, setting the stage for a multibillion-dollar showdown that could affect more than 40 million borrowers. Biden on Friday asked the nation's highest court to lift a federal appeals court order that is now blocking the program. He also suggested the justices consider taking up the case without waiting for a final appeals court decision — a schedule that could mean a definitive ruling by June. The appeals court order "leaves millions of economically vulnerable borrowers in limbo, uncertain about the size of their debt and unable to make financial decisions with an accurate understanding of their future repayment obligations," U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued. The administration filed the request with Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who handles emergency matters from the St. Louis-based 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which blocked the program. Kavanaugh could refer the matter to the full nine-member court. The program would forgive as much as $20,000 in federal loans for certain borrowers making less than $125,000 per year or $250,000 for households. About 26 million people had requested forgiveness before the Department of Education stopped accepting applications. The department has said more than 40 million borrowers would be eligible. The administration is fighting multiple challenges to the program. In the case now before the justices, six Republican-led states say Biden exceeded his authority under a law that lets the Education Department forgive loans during times of national emergency. Kavanaugh asked the states to respond by noon on Nov. 23. The biggest issue for opponents has been establishing standing to sue — that is, showing they are being directly harmed by the policy. The 8th Circuit said the states had standing because of the impact on a Missouri loan servicer that has financial ties to that state's treasury. The debt-relief plan has been on hold since Oct. 21, when the 8th Circuit issued an emergency order blocking the program. The administration is waging a separate court fight with a conservative advocacy group that sued on behalf of two Texans who say their education debt was unfairly excluded from the program. A federal trial judge ruled against the administration in that case, and Prelogar said Friday the government will ask the Supreme Court to intervene in that case if need be.

White House considers extending freeze on student loan repayments -The Biden administration is considering extending its pause on student loan repayments, now set to resume Jan. 1, in response to legal challenges to its student-debt forgiveness program, according to people familiar with the internal discussions. White House aides, Democratic lawmakers and advocates have been discussing ways to give borrowers a measure of financial relief, as the lawsuits work their way through the court system, people familiar with the talks said. A federal appeals court on Monday blocked the administration from carrying out President Biden's plan to cancel as much as $20,000 in debt for some borrowers. The decision followed a ruling last week from a federal judge in Texas finding the plan unlawful. The Department of Education has stopped accepting applications for loan forgiveness, thrusting millions of Americans into financial limbo. No final decision has been made yet on pausing student loan repayments, nor on the length of any new pause. Some administration lawyers are wary of offering another extension of a pandemic-era program, but Democratic lawmakers and aides would like to take action before the Dec. 6 Senate runoff election in Georgia, the people familiar said. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia pushed the Biden administration to forgive student debt, and Democratic aides believe he would receive a political boost, especially with younger voters, from an extended pause on repayments. Warnock will face Republican challenger Herschel Walker in the runoff. Debt relief delivered on a Biden campaign promise and was seen as a draw for young and progressive voters in the midterms. A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The freeze on student loan repayments, first adopted in March 2020 under President Donald Trump, was extended multiple times by Biden. When Biden in August unveiled his broad debt-forgiveness plan, he announced that loan repayments would resume in January 2023. The Biden administration has vowed to keep fighting the legal challenges to the program, which Republicans say exceeded the White House's authority. "We are confident in our legal authority for the student debt relief program and believe it is necessary to help borrowers most in need as they recover from the pandemic," White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement Monday. "The Administration will continue to fight these baseless lawsuits by Republican officials and special interests and will never stop fighting to support working and middle class Americans."

 Kyle Rittenhouse meets with House GOP members | The Hill -- Kyle Rittenhouse, the teenager acquitted of homicide related to the killing of two people in Kenosha, Wis., during a 2020 protest there, met with a group of House Republicans in the Second Amendment Caucus on Thursday evening. Rittenhouse joined the lawmakers at a gathering at the Conservative Partnership Institute office near the Capitol, a common gathering hub for conservative Republicans. Rittenhouse shared his story and held a question-and-answer session with members of the group.Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) are the co-chairs of the Second Amendment Caucus. Those in attendance at the Thursday event also included Republican Reps. Andrew Clyde (Ga.) and Byron Donalds (Fla.), according to a source.“It was an honor to have Kyle join the Second Amendment Caucus. He is a powerful example of why we must never give an inch on our Second Amendment rights, and his perseverance and love for our country was an inspiration to the caucus,” Boebert told The Hill in a statement.The meeting with Rittenhouse comes nearly one year to the day after a jury unanimously found him not guilty of all the charges that he faced, including intentional homicide and endangering safety. Rittenhouse’s lawyers argued that he acted in self-defense.Rittenhouse had shown up at a night of unrest in Kenosha following the police shooting of Jacob Blake, armed with an AR-15-style rifle and saying that he intended to help out as a medic. The night turned violent, and Rittenhouse, after being chased, shot and killed Joseph Rosenbaum and then Anthony Huber, who struck Rittenhouse with a skateboard, as well as injuring Gaige Grosskreutz, who was holding a pistol.“I’m 19 and just got to speak with leaders of the greatest country on earth! This was an amazing evening where I got to share my story and discuss the importance of the Second Amendment. Even while the radical left continues to sue me and disparage my name, I know these great leaders have my back,” Rittenhouse said in a statement.He was referring to a civil suit brought against him earlier this year by the parents of Huber.Since the trial, Rittenhouse has become a Second Amendment advocate. The month after his trial, elaborate pyrotechnics accompanied his entrance at a Turning Point USA conference.Right-wing lawmakers embraced Rittenhouse around the time of his trial. Republican Reps. Madison Cawthorn (N.C.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.) and Paul Gosar (Ariz.) all floated making him a congressional intern.

Herschel Walker: U.S. should keep 'gas-guzzling cars' that produce 'good emissions' - Campaigning in Georgia on Sunday, Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker said the United States is not ready to implement policies like the Green New Deal that are designed to address climate change. Instead, Walker suggested the country needs to "keep having those gas-guzzling cars" that produce "good emissions.""If we was ready for the green agenda, I'd raise my hand right now. But we're not ready right now. So don't let them fool you like this is a new agenda. This is not a new agenda," Walker said at a campaign stop in Peachtree City. "We're not prepared. We're not ready right now. What we need to do is keep having those gas-guzzling cars, 'cause we got the good emissions under those cars. We're doing the best thing that we can."The science on the causes of rising global temperatures has long been well established. Simply put, emissions from automobiles are anything but "good" for the planet. In 2021, more than 99.9% of climate scientists agreed that mankind's burning of fossil fuels is causing the global climate to warm.World leaders and their representatives are currently attending the U.N. climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in an effort to reach new agreements on how to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Without significant action to transition away from fossil fuels and "gas-guzzling cars," scientists have warned, the resulting climate shifts will result in catastrophic consequences, including massive migration, for life on the planet.While the U.S. passed its first meaningful climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, this year, not a single Republican member of Congress voted for it. Walker, who will face Sen. Raphael Warnock in a Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia, has often offered an odd take on the efforts to fight climate change."We in America have some of the cleanest air and cleanest water of anybody in the world," he told a group of supporters while campaigning in July. "So what we are going to do is put, from the Green New Deal, millions, billions of dollars cleaning our good air up. So all of the sudden China and India, they put nothing to clean that situation up. Since we don't control the air, our good air decides to float over to China's bad air. So when China gets our good air, their bad air got to move. So it moves over to our good airspace. Then, now, we got to clean that back up." In fact, air quality in the U.S. improved dramatically following the passage of the Clean Air Act of 1970. And while many Republicans are opposed to committing the U.S. to climate change action unless other polluting nations like China and India also agree to do so, on Monday President Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with both leaders pledging to restart climate negotiations.Warnock voted in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act and has made the fight against climate change a central issue in his reelection campaign.

Pence to Muir: Trump's words on 1/6 'endangered me and my family and everyone at the Capitol' - Former Vice President Mike Pence said in an exclusive interview with ABC's "World News Tonight" anchor David Muir that former President Donald Trump's rhetoric was "reckless" as a mob of his supporters ransacked the Capitol last year -- with Pence and others temporarily forced into hiding."I mean, the president's words were reckless. It was clear he decided to be part of the problem," Pence told Muir.Pence said he was "angered" over a tweet from Trump as the insurrection unfolded, when the former president said he "didn't have the courage to do what should have been done" after he rebuffed pressure to not certify now-President Joe Biden's 2020 victory."I turned to my daughter, who was standing nearby, and I said, 'It doesn't take courage to break the law. It takes courage to uphold the law,'" Pence, who is releasing the memoir "So Help Me God" on Tuesday, told Muir in his first network TV interview since the insurrection. In an exclusive interview at the former vice president's home in Indiana, Muir also pressed Pence on whether Trump should ever be in the White House again, whether Pence will run for president, whether Trump hurt Republicans in the midterms and what Pence makes of authorities saying classified documents were taken from the White House. Pence was overseeing Congress' certification of the 2020 Electoral College results on Jan. 6, 2021, when a large crowd urged on by Trump marched to the Capitol and then overran security and vandalized the building, sending Pence and congressional lawmakers into lockdown."The president's words were reckless and his actions were reckless," he told Muir this week. "The president's words that day at the rally [before the riot] endangered me and my family and everyone at the Capitol building."Trump ultimately told the rioters to leave but only after berating Pence for not blocking the certification -- which Pence noted he couldn't legally do -- and repeating baseless conspiracy theories about widespread fraud in the 2020 election. Since leaving office, Pence has praised the policies of their administration while breaking with Trump over the latter's fixation on the last presidential race.

Homeland Security Admits It Tried to Manufacture Fake Terrorists for Trump The Department of Homeland Security launched a failed operation that ensnared hundreds, if not thousands, of U.S. protesters in what new documents show was as a sweeping, power-hungry effort before the 2020 election to bolster President Donald Trump’s spurious claims about a “terrorist organization” he accused his Democratic rivals of supporting.An internal investigative report, made public this month by Sen. Ron Wyden, a Democrat of Oregon, details the findings of DHS lawyers concerning a previously undisclosed effort by Trump’s acting secretary of homeland security, Chad Wolf, to amass secret dossiers on Americans in Portland attending anti-racism protests in summer 2020 sparked by the police murder of Minneapolis father George Floyd. The report describes attempts by top officials to link protesters to an imaginary terrorist plot in an apparent effort to boost Trump’s reelection odds, raising concerns now about the ability of a sitting president to co-opt billions of dollars’ worth of domestic intelligence assets for their own political gain. DHS analysts recounted orders to generate evidence of financial ties between protesters in custody; an effort that, had they not failed, would have seemingly served to legitimize President Trump’s false claims about “Antifa,” an “organization” that even his most loyal intelligence officers failed to drum up proof ever existed.

Former Oath Keeper vice president revealed to have been FBI informant “months” before January 6 attack - More evidence in the ongoing seditious conspiracy trial of five members of the Oath Keepers militia group has emerged showing that the FBI knew of preparations for an attack on Congress by fascist groups aligned with former President Donald Trump months before January 2021. For the second time in the trial, a member of the Oath Keepers group has been revealed to have been in communication with the Federal Bureau of Investigation well before the violent attack on Congress.On November 8, the New York Times, citing “two people familiar with the matter,” reported that former Oath Keepers Vice President Greg McWhirter is a confidential informant for the FBI. McWhirter, 40, is the current owner of the Western Montana Tactical Training Center and a former sheriff’s deputy in Montana and Indiana. In addition to being vice president of Oath Keepers, McWhirter sat on the Oath Keepers board of directors.The Times report was confirmed later that day, after prosecutors with the Department of Justice confirmed in a sealed filing that McWhirter was a “confidential human source.” In court documents, federal prosecutors asked the court to investigate whether the fact that McWhirter was a government witness was leaked by members of the defense to the Times,writing that the disclosure of the information “could compromise sensitive law-enforcement techniques and witness safety.” A biography on coasttocoastam.com of McWhirter notes that the Oath Keeper deployed to Houston in 2016 following Hurricane Harvey and “liaised with federal and local government.” McWhirter was scheduled to testify on behalf of the defense on Tuesday, the same day that the New York Times article appeared. However, he apparently suffered a heart attack prior to boarding an airplane on his way to Washington D.C. and was subsequently hospitalized. He will no longer testify in the case. McWhirter is the second member of the Oath Keepers to have been revealed as a government informant. In October, former Oath Keepers West Virginia chapter leader Abdullah Rasheed testified that after hearing what he described as a plot by Rhodes to overthrow the government in a November 9, 2020 online meeting, he immediately contacted the FBI, sending them a full recording of the meeting.“The more I listened to the call it sounded like we were going to war against the United States government,” Rasheed testified. The former Marine claimed, and the government confirmed, that no attempts to interview him were made by the FBI until March 2021, after Rasheed resentthe November 9, 2020 audio recording to the FBI.In addition to the FBI, it was revealed earlier in the trial that several members of the Oath Keepers, not just Rhodes, had working relationships with US Secret Service agents prior to the attack on the Capitol. The Oath Keepers were not the only fascist group riddled with informants that attacked the Capitol on January 6. Former chairman of the Proud Boys Henry “Enrique” Tarrio is also an admitted FBI informant. Tarrio, like Rhodes, is also facing seditious conspiracy charges.In addition to the founder of the group, Elmer Stewart Rhodes, Oath Keepers leaders Jessica Watkins, Kenneth Harrelson, Thomas Caldwell and Kelly Meggs have also been charged with seditious conspiracy, a Civil War-era charge that carries a 20-year prison sentence.

Jan. 6 panel weighs ‘next steps’ after Trump fails to show for deposition - The House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol says it is considering “next steps” after former President Trump failed to appear for his Monday deposition following a subpoena last month. In a joint statement from Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and Vice Chairwoman Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), the panel bashed Trump for filing a lawsuit Friday challenging the subpoena, accusing him of “hiding” after he was compelled to appear for testimony Monday. “Even though the former President initially suggested that he would testify before the committee, he has since filed a lawsuit asking the courts to protect him from giving testimony. His attorneys have made no attempt to negotiate an appearance of any sort, and his lawsuit parades out many of the same arguments that courts have rejected repeatedly over the last year,” the two said in a statement. “The truth is that Donald Trump, like several of his closest allies, is hiding from the Select Committee’s investigation and refusing to do what more than a thousand other witnesses have done,” they added. The committee has in other cases extended deadlines for those who have engaged with it, and it has likewise acted swiftly in cases where people have defied subpoenas, including forwarding votes to hold those such as former White House strategist Stephen Bannon in contempt of Congress. “In the days ahead, the committee will evaluate next steps in the litigation and regarding the former president’s noncompliance,” Thompson and Cheney wrote. It’s unclear if the committee would move to hold Trump in contempt of Congress while Democrats remain in control during the lame-duck session or if the Department of Justice (DOJ) would pursue the recommendation. But the justice system in this instance won’t move swiftly enough to aid the committee, which is due to sunset at the end of this Congress and holds little chance of being revived by Republicans should they overtake the House, as is expected after last week’s midterm elections. The suit initiated by Trump will take months at a minimum to move through the courts, as would any prosecution from the DOJ. The Justice Department, however, has two ongoing investigations involving Trump, one probing Jan. 6 and the other his role in mishandling national security information by transporting government records to Mar-a-Lago. The committee subpoenaed Trump in its last hearing on Oct. 13. “He is the one person at the center of the story of what happened on Jan. 6. So we want to hear from him. The committee needs to do everything in our power to tell the most complete story possible and provide recommendations to help ensure that nothing like Jan. 6 ever happens again. We need to be fair and thorough in getting the full context for the evidence we’ve obtained,” Thompson said at the time. The next day, Trump issued a 14-page response, trumpeting many of his earlier false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

Republicans And GOP-Leaning Independents Prefer DeSantis Over Trump In 2024: Poll - A new YouGov survey has found that 42% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would prefer Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over former President Trump as the party's 2024 presidential nominee. Just 35% polled said they would prefer Trump over DeSantis.

Trump criminal probe: Attorney General Garland names special counsel Jack Smith - U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland on Friday named former federal prosecutor Jack Smith as special counsel for two ongoing criminal investigations by the Department of Justice of former President Donald Trump. Smith's appointment came three days after Trump, a Republican, announced plans to run for president in 2024. Trump's move directly led to Garland's decison to appoint a special counsel, who will recommend whether criminal charges should be lodged against the ex-president. The attorney general himself was appointed by Biden, a Democrat who defeated Trump in his 2020 re-election bid. Biden could again face Trump again in the 2024 election, although the president has not yet made a final decision on becoming a candidate. The first investigation that Smith will begin immediately handling is looking into whether any person, including Trump, unlawfully interfered with the transfer of presidential power following the 2020 election, or the certification of the Electoral College vote in President Joe Biden's favor on Jan. 6, 2021. That day, a mob of Trump supporters invaded the U.S. Capitol, disrupting the certification of the Electoral College vote. The other DOJ probe that Smith will oversee is focused on whether Trump broke the law and obstructed justice in connection with his removal of hundreds of documents from the White House, which were shipped to his residence at Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida. "Mr. Smith is the right choice to complete these matters in an even-handed and urgent matter," Garland said.

Trump says he 'won't partake' in special counsel investigation, slams as 'worst politicization of justice' - Former President Donald Trump blasted the Justice Department's appointment of a special counsel to take over investigations related to presidential records and Jan. 6, telling Fox News he "won’t partake in it" and calling it "the worst politicization of justice in our country," while urging the Republican Party to take action. "I have been going through this for six years — for six years I have been going through this, and I am not going to go through it anymore," Trump told Fox News Digital in an exclusive interview Friday shortly after the announcement. "And I hope the Republicans have the courage to fight this." "I have been proven innocent for six years on everything — from fake impeachments to [former special counsel Robert] Mueller who found no collusion, and now I have to do it more?" Trump said. "It is not acceptable. It is so unfair. It is so political." "I am not going to partake in it," Trump told Fox News Digital. "I'm not going to partake in this." Trump, who announced his 2024 presidential campaign on Tuesday, said it is "not even believable." "I have never heard of such a thing. They found nothing. I announce and then they appoint a special prosecutor," he said. "They found nothing, and now they take some guy who hates Trump. This is a disgrace and only happening because I am leading in every poll in both parties." "I have been proven innocent for six years on everything — from fake impeachments to [former special counsel Robert] Mueller who found no collusion, and now I have to do it more?" former President Donald Trump said. "It is not acceptable. It is so unfair. It is so political." He added: "It is not even believable that they’re allowed to do this. This is the worst politicization of justice in our country." Trump, like many congressional Republicans, slammed the Justice Department for bias and politicization, pointing to the federal investigation into President Biden’s son, Hunter Biden. Hunter has been under federal investigation since 2018 and the investigation is being conducted by Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss, a prosecutor appointed by Trump. "Hunter Biden is a criminal many times over and nothing happens to him," Trump said. "Joe Biden is a criminal many times over — and nothing happens to them. "It is unfair to the country, to the Republican Party, and I don’t think people should accept it. I am not going to accept it," Trump told Fox News Digital. "The Republican Party has to stand up and fight."

What it means that a special counsel is running the Trump investigations | CNN Politics— The legal jeopardy former President Donald Trump faces in two federal criminal investigations took on a new tenor Friday with the appointment of a special counsel at the Justice Department. Jack Smith, a DOJ alum known for his work in international war crimes prosecutions, will take over the investigation into sensitive government documents taken to Trump’s Florida home at the end of his presidency. Smith will also oversee aspects of the probe reviewing efforts to obstruct the transfer of presidential power after 2020, including bids to interfere with Congress’ certification of the vote. The attorney general unveiled the appointment of a special counsel for the investigations, which both have touched on Trump, who announced this week that he’s running for the White House in 2024. Smith will ultimately report to Attorney General Merrick Garland. But as a special counsel he will be operating outside of the day-to-day supervision of the department’s political leadership and his interactions with Biden’s political appointees should be limited. The independent special counsel puts some distance between the Department’s political leadership – who have been appointed by President Joe Biden – and what is happening in the Trump-related investigations. Smith is registered as an independent, a DOJ official told reporters. The appointment has the practical effect of limiting information about the investigation that must be disclosed to Congress, as only details about its budget must be shared with lawmakers. The special counsel regulations do allow for Garland to fire Smith. But any decision Garland makes to reject a request from the special counsel, including charging decisions, must also be reported to Congress.

Desperate Trump Floats Impeachment 'Double Jeopardy' Claim Against Indictments -- Donald Trump on Friday night scrambled for every possible response to the appointment of a special counsel to investigate him — from a declaration that he’s one of the most “honest and innocent people” to suggesting that any new indictments could be “double jeopardy.”The former president made the remarks in a speech at his Florida resort,Mar-a-Lago, after Attorney General Merrick Garland named a special counsel earlier in the day to oversee a Justice Department probe centered on Trump. Authorities are looking into the circumstances around a stash ofclassified documents that had been transported to the resort from the White House at the end of Trump’s term.The special counsel — former Justice Department official Jack Smith — will also supervise the continuing investigation into Trump’s role in last year’s Jan. 6 insurrection in Washington and efforts to toss out the results of the 2020 presidential election.In his speech, Trump called the decision to appoint a special counsel “appalling,” President Joe Biden’s administration “egregiously corrupt,” and the Justice Department “weaponized.” He described Smith as “super radical left.”Trump’s first key point about himself was that he shouldn’t be indicted for anything because he’s “one of the most honest and innocent people ever in our country.”When that didn’t completely straighten things out, he suggested that any indictment against him could be considered double jeopardy because he had already been cleared in two impeachments, including for his role in last year’s insurrection.“Isn’t this sort of like double jeopardy?” he asked the crowd.Earlier in the day, the same theory had been floated by Fox News host Geraldo Rivera.Double jeopardy — the prosecution of a person twice for the same acts, which is prohibited by the U.S. Constitution — doesn’t apply to impeachments.Trump also insisted that the Justice Department’s investigation into the White House documents stashed at Mar-a-Lago was “dying or dead or over.”After listening to Trump’s speech, CNN senior justice correspondent Evan Pérez told the network’s fact-checker John Berman that “the former president is just making it up.”“There is ... nothing to say that this was a dead investigation or that it was being abandoned — far from it,” Pérez said on the network. “People around him have been getting subpoenas in recent days. So there was nothing to indicate that this was about to go away.”The speech went “on and on and on and on, and much of what he was saying was misleading; some of it was flat-out untrue,” said Berman.Also on Friday, a furious Trump had told Fox News that he was “not going to partake” in any investigation conducted by the special counsel, and he slammed the appointment as “the worst politicization of justice in our country.”

Pence calls appointment of special counsel to investigate Trump 'very troubling'— Former Vice President Mike Pence called the Justice Department's appointment of a special counsel to investigate former President Trump "very troubling," while telling Fox News Digital that his level of cooperation with that investigation would be up to his legal team. Attorney General Merrick Garland on Friday appointed former Justice Department official Jack Smith to the role of special counsel to investigate the entirety of the criminal probe into the retention of presidential records held at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home. Smith will also oversee the DOJ’s investigation into the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. During a sit-down interview with Fox News Digital on the sidelines of the Republican Jewish Coalition annual leadership conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, Pence criticized the Justice Department for its "politicization"— especially with regard to Trump. "The appointment of a special counsel is very troubling," Pence told Fox News Digital. "No one is above the law, but I am not sure it’s against the law to take bad advice from your lawyers." Pence pointed to "years of politicization at the Justice Department," referencing the Trump-Russia investigation. "There have been disclosed FBI agents falsifying documents, the FBI using a Clinton campaign-funded opposition research document to support two and a half years of the Russia hoax." Trump's presidency was clouded by Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into whether he and his campaign colluded with Russia to influence the 2016 presidential election. After nearly two years, Mueller’s investigation, which concluded in March 2019, yielded no evidence of criminal conspiracy or coordination between the Trump campaign and Russian officials during the 2016 presidential election. Pence said he was "deeply troubled" when "senior leadership at the Justice Department made the decision to execute a search warrant against the personal residence of the former president of the United States," referring to the FBI’s unprecedented raid of Mar-a-Lago in August. "It had never been done in history," he said, adding that the raid "sent a divisive message across the country," and warned that it "sent a wrong message about America around the world." Pence, who served on the House Judiciary Committee for 10 years as a congressman from Indiana, said he knows "how the Justice Department operates." "There were many more opportunities — short of executing a search warrant on the personal residence of the president of the United States to resolve the issues of classified documents that were present there."

Ex-Trump Org. CFO Allen Weisselberg testifies against the company – — Longtime Trump Organization executive Allen Weisselberg took the stand Tuesday as the prosecution’s star witness in the company’s criminal trial on tax fraud charges.Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer, testified that he received $1.76 million in untaxed, off-the-books perks from the company — confirming key elements of the Manhattan district attorney’s case against the Trump Organization.Weisselberg, who has worked for the Trump family for nearly 50 years,pleaded guilty in August and agreed to testify against former President Donald Trump’s firm.Under questioning by prosecutors, he said he knew he owed taxes on the compensation, which included an apartment overlooking the Hudson River, leases for two Mercedes-Benz and private school tuition for his grandchildren. He said he knew that his tax forms were false because they underreported his income.He said the scheme benefited both him and the company, which would have had to give him a raise twice as large as the amount they spent on his personal expenses to provide the same benefit if taxes were withheld.Weisselberg said he deliberately withheld information about the extra perks from accountants because he knew they were improper. “They may not have wanted to sign my tax return and prepare my taxes,” he said.Far from being frozen out of the Trump orbit, Weisselberg revealed that he has continued to receive his full six-figure salary since pleading guilty and agreeing to testify against the company — even celebrating a birthday party at Trump Tower hours after his plea deal was finalized.He stepped down as CFO after being charged in the case, but stayed on as a senior adviser with many of the same responsibilities until this October, months after his guilty plea, when he began a paid leave of absence.

Trump Org. cleaned up illegal practices when Trump became president, ex-CFO testifies - — The Trump Organization engaged in an effort to clean up its act and stop fraudulent tax practices to avoid scrutiny when Donald Trump became president, the company’s former chief financial officer told a jury Thursday.Allen Weisselberg, a longtime top executive at the Trump Organization, took the stand for his second day of testimony at the company’s criminal tax fraud trial in state Supreme Court in Manhattan.“We were going through an entire clean up process to make sure that since Mr. Trump was now president, that everything was done properly,” Weisselberg contended.The company is accused of giving Weisselberg and other executives off-the-books perks including apartments, luxury cars and private school tuition, a scheme Weisselberg detailed on the stand.He said that he and other executives knew their practices were illegal — and brought them to an end after Trump took office. The company had been paying Weisselberg and at least one other executive’s personal expenses, allowing them to avoid income taxes and the company to dodge payroll taxes. It was also paying executives bonuses on tax forms that claimed they were independent contractors, when they were actually employees, he said.“Mr. Trump became president, and everybody was looking at our company from every different angle you could think of,” Weisselberg said, adding the company wanted to “make sure that we correct everything that we have to correct.”Until the cleanup took place, Weisselberg had been receiving a free apartment on the Upper West Side, a Mercedes Benz for himself and his wife, private school tuition for his grandchildren, cash to give tips at the holidays and other expenses.He detailed Thursday how Trump personally began picking up the tab for his two grandchildren to attend Columbia Grammar and Preparatory School at a cost of about $100,000 a year.He was in Trump’s office when his son, Donald Trump Jr., came in with tuition bills for his own children. Trump jokingly said, “I might as well pay for your grandkids too,” according to Weisselberg.

DEA's most corrupt agent: Parties, sex amid 'unwinnable war' (AP) — José Irizarry accepts that he’s known as the most corrupt agent in U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration history, admitting he “became another man” in conspiring with Colombian cartels to build a lavish lifestyle of expensive sports cars, Tiffany jewels and paramours around the world. But as he used his final hours of freedom to tell his story to The Associated Press, Irizarry says he won’t go down for this alone, accusing some long-trusted DEA colleagues of joining him in skimming millions of dollars from drug money laundering stings to fund a decade’s worth of luxury overseas travel, fine dining, top seats at sporting events and frat house-style debauchery. The way Irizarry tells it, dozens of other federal agents, prosecutors, informants and in some cases cartel smugglers themselves were all in on the three-continent joyride known as “Team America” that chose cities for money laundering pick-ups mostly for party purposes or to coincide with Real Madrid soccer or Rafael Nadal tennis matches. That included stops along the way in VIP rooms of Caribbean strip joints, Amsterdam’s red-light district and aboard a Colombian yacht that launched with plenty of booze and more than a dozen prostitutes. “We had free access to do whatever we wanted,” the 48-year-old Irizarry told the AP in a series of interviews before beginning a 12-year federal prison sentence. “We would generate money pick-ups in places we wanted to go. And once we got there it was about drinking and girls.” All this revelry was rooted, Irizarry said, in a crushing realization among DEA agents around the world that there’s nothing they can do to make a dent in the drug war anyway. Only nominal concern was given to actually building cases or stemming a record flow of illegal cocaine and opioids into the United States that has driven more than 100,000 drug overdose deaths a year. “You can’t win an unwinnable war,” he said. “The drug war is a game. ... It was a very fun game that we were playing.” Irizarry’s story, which some former colleagues have attacked as a fictionalized attempt to reduce his sentence, came in days of contrite, bitter, sometimes tearful interviews with the AP in the historic quarter of his native San Juan. It was much the same account he gave the FBI in lengthy debriefings and sealed court papers obtained by the AP after he pleaded guilty in 2020 to 19 corruption counts. But after years of portraying Irizarry as a rogue agent who acted alone, U.S. Justice Department investigators have in recent months begun closely following his confessional roadmap, questioning as many as two-dozen current and former DEA agents and prosecutors accused of turning a blind eye to his flagrant abuses and sometimes joining in. The once-standout agent has accused some former colleagues in the DEA’s Miami-based Group 4 of lining their pockets and falsifying records to replenish a slush fund used for foreign jaunts over the better part of a decade, until his resignation in 2018. “The indictment paints a picture of me, the corrupt agent that did this entire scheme. But it doesn’t talk about the rest of DEA. I wasn’t the mastermind,” Irizarry said.10:37 PM

Ghislaine Maxwell Befriends Double-Murderer, Becomes Prison Darling -- Convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell has apparently settled into her new life as inmate #02879-509 at the Federal Correctional Institute in Tallahasse, where she has cultivated a clique of influential inmates who ensure her protection, the Daily Mail reports, citing an inside source.While the notorious madam reportedly threw a tantrums when she arrived - refusing to eat and complaining about how her clothes fit, she appears to be settling in - making friends with notorious double-murderer Narcy Novak, a 65-year-old Florida woman serving life without parole for hiring a hitman to murder her hotelier husband Ben Novak Jr. and his elderly mother Bernice in an attempt to control the family estate.Maxwell, 60, also hangs out with con woman Linda Morrow, who helped her plastic surgeon husband scam $44 million out of insurers by classifying cosmetic procedures as medical necessities. After fleeing to Israel, the now-70-year-old Coachella Valley native was deported to the US in 2019 and jailed for 8 years"Ghislaine cried a lot when she first arrived. You could hear her yelling that everything was inhumane. She walked around like a zombie, her eyes were always puffy," said one recently released prisoner. "She sat down next to me in the canteen, took one look at her food and declared "I can't eat this", and stormed off.""Now she has some friends and is eating more. She's bubbly, you see her smiling. She makes a point of saying good morning. You can see she's visibly more comfortable." Maxwell, who works just six hours a day in the prison library, spends her time strolling around the manicured grounds of the prison, where she's got daily access to an array of sporting facilities. One Daily Mail journalist spotted Maxwell going for an hour-long jog in the Florida sunshine.

Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes sentenced to just over 11 years in prison - Elizabeth Holmes, the founder of shuttered blood testing company Theranos, was sentenced to 135 months, or 11 1/4 years, in prison on Friday for defrauding investors. The sentence falls short of the maximum possible punishment for Holmes, who faced as many as 20 years in prison. Holmes was also ordered to serve three years of supervised release after the sentence. Holmes offered a tearful apology before the judge issued the sentence, quoting the poet Rumi, "Yesterday I was clever, so I wanted to change the world. Today I am wise, so I am changing myself."She has been ordered to report to prison April 27.The sentencing marks the latest development in a legal saga that has turned the former billionaire entrepreneur into an emblem of Silicon Valley malfeasance.Holmes faced a sentence of 20 years for each of four counts, but legal experts expected the sentences to be served at the same time, giving her a maximum sentence of 20 years.Holmes' legal team requested no more than 18 months in prison in a court filing last week. In fact, a lighter sentence involving house arrest and community service would prove sufficient, her attorneys argued.Prosecutors appealed for Holmes to be sentenced to 15 years in prison, calling it "one of the most substantial white collar offenses" in Silicon Valley history."She repeatedly chose lies, hype and the prospect of billions of dollars over patient safety and fair dealing with investors," Assistant U.S. Attorney Robert Leach wrote in the request last Friday. "Elizabeth Holmes' crimes were not failing, they were lying." Last week, Holmes' legal team submitted 130 letters of support, including a note from personal friend Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., who said Holmes "has within her a sincere desire to help others, to be of meaningful service, and possesses the capacity to redeem herself."Holmes, 38, was convicted in January on four counts of investor fraud and conspiracy while at the helm of Theranos. The verdict followed a four-month trial that detailed Holmes' trajectory from a Stanford University dropout in 2003 to a star business leader on the cover of Fortune magazine little more than a decade later.Ultimately, her downfall began in 2015 amid investigations from journalists and regulators over the medical company's faulty product, which claimed to provide accurate information from tests using just a finger-prick of blood.A year later, as the company struggled, Forbes downgraded its assessment of Holmes' net worth from $4.5 billion to $0. Facing charges of massive fraud from the Securities and Exchange Commission, Holmes agreed to forfeit control of Theranos in 2018.

 Trump filing in suit against Twitter compares former president to Galileo - A new legal brief in Donald Trump’s battle against social media giants makes some novel arguments about the former president as he accuses Twitter and the U.S. government of violating the First Amendment by suppressing misinformation about the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 election.The 96-page filing submitted to the San Francisco-based 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on Monday contends that Twitter and the federal government are working to “suppress opinions and information about matters that Americans consider of vital interest.”Those matters include the source of the virus that caused the pandemic, the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines, the validity of the 2020 election results, and the legitimacy of documents from a hard drive allegedly belonging to President Joe Biden’s son Hunter, the court filing says.The brief likens Trump to Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei, who was persecuted by the Catholic Church for promulgating the belief that the Earth revolved around the sun.“Most people once believed these to be crackpot ideas; many still do. But crackpot ideas sometimes turn out to be true. The earth does revolve around the sun, and it was Hunter Biden, not Russian disinformation agents, who dropped off a laptop full of incriminating evidence at a repair shop in Delaware,” Trump’s lawyers wrote. “Galileo spent his remaining days under house arrest for spreading heretical ideas, and thousands of dissidents today are arrested or killed by despotic governments eager to suppress ideas they disapprove of. But this is not the American way.” Trump’s brief also describes as “correct or at least debatable” the notion that the 2020 presidential election was “stolen.”

Musk To Employees: Commit To "Hardcore" Twitter Vision Or Take 3 Months Severance And Leave - The changing of the guard at Twitter is officially complete.For snowflake employees at the company that weren't ready to grasp that fact, Elon Musk likely made it abundantly clear this week when he released an ultimatum to employees, demanding they commit to a new "hardcore" version of Twitter or leave the company with severance pay, WaPo reported. “If you are sure that you want to be part of the new Twitter, please click yes on the link below,” an email to employees said. Employees were also made to "sign a pledge" to stay on and work for the company, the report says.The pledge was to be signed by 5PM eastern on Thursday, or else employees would be terminated and receive 3 months of severance pay. Twitter “will need to be extremely hardcore," Musk said in his email, adding: “This will mean working long hours at high intensity. Only exceptional performance will constitute a passing grade.”The ultimatum is expected to lead to more attrition at the company, WaPo reported. “Those writing great code will constitute the majority of our team and have the greatest sway,” Musk had said about the new era he is ushering in. The notice comes just days after Musk demanded a return to the office for all employees. Last Wednesday evening, Musk sent out his first email to employees about "difficult times ahead" and the end of remote working unless he approved it, according to Bloomberg. The new rules were enacted immediately, requiring employees to be in the office for at least 40 hours per week. Musk's leadership is now in its third week. On week one, he fired half the workforce, or about 3,700 jobs, to drive down costs following his $44 billion acquisition. The billionaire has launched an $8 subscription for Twitter Blue and attached user verification to it to drive higher revenues. He told employees his goal is for subscriptions to make up at least half of Twitter's revenue.

Elon Musk abruptly shut down Twitter's offices as workers resigned en masse -Twitter's offices abruptly shut down on Thursday as hundreds of employees refused to continue working under Elon Musk's new vision for the social platform.Company officials told employees all buildings were being temporarily closed, effective immediately, and that their ability to renter with ID access was being suspended for the time being, two people familiar with the company's action told Insider. The offices are expected to reopen Monday.A current employee noted the closing of offices is a dramatic move, but intended to "prevent physical sabotage while they sort out access revocations," according to a Slack message seen by Insider. The closure was first reported on Twitter by Zoe Schiffer of the Platformer newsletter.The closure came about an hour after Musk's 5 pm ET deadline for Twitter workers to officially sign on to his new "extremely hardcore" plans for the company. Less than 50% of the company's remaining staff of roughly 4,000 people signed up to work at "Twitter 2.0,"as Insider reported, meaning they effectively resigned under the terms Musk offered in a Tuesday ultimatum.So few people signed up to Musk's offer that he and other executives attempted to personally convince some "critical" personnel to stay with the company, as Insider reported. In one such meeting, some staffers who had called in via videoconference began to hang up after the 5 p.m. deadline, according to a report in The New York Times, even as Musk continued speaking.This is the second time offices have suddenly closed since Musk took over Twitter. The company closed offices and barred employees from entering the evening Musk began to enact mass layoffs about three weeks ago. In an email sent at the time regarding the offices being closed, the company said the move was to "ensure the safety of each employee as well as Twitter systems and customer data."

Elon Musk fired Twitter's head of sales after begging her to stay at the company, report says - About a week after Elon Musk persuaded Twitter's head of ad sales, Robin Wheeler, not to resign, he changed his mind and fired her, according to reporting by Platformer.Sources told Casey Newton, who runs the Platformer newsletter, that Wheeler had been fired Friday. One source also told Insider Wheeler had been fired but declined to give additional details.Wheeler had handed in her resignation last Thursday along with several other senior leaders, but was persuaded to stay by the new owner,Bloomberg reported. Shortly after Newton broke the news of her firing on Friday, Wheeler posted to social media with what appeared to be a confirmation of her departure."To the team and my clients….you were always my first and only priority," Wheeler tweeted, adding a salute emoji that has come to be a symbol of departing the company. Wheeler did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.

Elon Musk to reinstate Trump’s Twitter account - Twitter CEO Elon Musk announced on Saturday that he will reinstate former President Trump’s account. Musk made the decision following a Twitter poll on Friday, in which a narrow majority voted in favor of reinstating the former president’s account.“The people have spoken. Trump will be reinstated. Vox Populi, Vox Dei,” Musk said in a tweet, quoting the Latin phrase meaning “the voice of the people is the voice of God.” Trump was permanently banned from Twitter nearly two years ago, following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.“After close review of recent Tweets from the @realDonaldTrump account and the context around them we have permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence,” Twitter said at the time.

‘I Caught Lightning in a Bottle. I Will Be One of the Last People to Leave Twitter.’ - In case you haven’t heard, people are this close to leaving Twitter. In the weeks since Elon Musk took over the platform, his erratic leadership and bewildering choices have alienated many of Twitter’s power users, a core crop of whom are part of the American political establishment. Musk has upended the service’s handling of verification, opening the door to fraud. And he’s fired many of the people, analysts argue, who kept spam, bots and hate speech from running rampant on the site. And so, some of Twitter’s best-known are promising to leave for the greener pastures of Mastodon, Instagram and TikTok.But leaving a communications channel that’s become central to how Washington works won’t be easy.In much of the world, Twitter seems a bit silly. Even inside the metaphorical Beltway, people will admit to it being an ego-boosting dopamine-dispensing machine if not an insular, often-toxic time suck. The truth, though, is that Washington takes Twitter very seriously. Twitter is a place where all the worlds that make up Washington — the politicians, the policy experts, the press, academics, activists, and others — gather. And in an increasingly remote age, Twitter does much of the work that physical meeting spaces once did in Washington.For a city that never stops feasting on work, Twitter “is a bottomless bowl of soup,” says Margaret O’Mara, chair of American history at the University of Washington, where she studies the overlap of politics and tech. She was also a staffer in the Clinton White House in the 1990s.And using Twitter well is a bit of a superpower, one that the American political class is loath to give up without a fight. Sure, folks in Washington might well give up on Twitter. But for now, it’s still the place for reporter-massaging, idea-debating, networking, rumor-mill-monitoring and career-building. Any replacement will struggle to replicate all the ways it has transformed the city. I spoke with more than 15 insiders from all walks of Washington who spoke about how Twitter’s become baked in to their lives. They talked about how Twitter has become essential to how they do their jobs, and why the end of the social network would trigger upheaval in the capital.So why, exactly, can’t Washington quit Twitter?Talk to just about anyone in politics, and they make plain that one of Twitter’s key uses is simply getting themselves, their boss, their issue in front of a powerful audience: the press. If you’re trying to reach Americans, says one Senate Democratic staffer, “one way is to spend a million dollars on TV ads.” Another way, says the aide, is to “talk to the people who talk to people” — that is, reporters. “Twitter is good for that.”That Twitter is soaked through with journalists isn’t accidental. Twitter, in its struggle to grow its user base after it launched in 2006, actively cultivated reporters and other media figures and encouraged them to tweet, incentivizing them (at least in the pre-Musk days) in part through the sort of bulk-verification it otherwise gives to sports teams and talent agencies. It worked: Today, some 70 percent of journalists say Twitter is the social platform they use first- or second-most in their jobs. That’s helped usher in a new era in news media and a new era of Washington. As a result, says Nu Wexler, a former Senate staffer who from 2013 through 2017 was a policy communications official in Twitter’s D.C. office, “it’s a very easy way to get the attention of much larger megaphones.”

Crypto Lender BlockFi Halts Withdrawals, Citing Uncertainty Around FTX -In a statement made on Friday, November 11th, Crypto lender BlockFi announced the halt of all withdrawal services. The firm cited a “lack of clarity on the status of FTX.com, FTX US, and Alameda” as the primary reason for it’s inability to operate as usual.“We are shocked and dismayed by the news regarding FTX and Alameda. We, like the rest of the world, found out about this situation through Twitter,” BlockFi explained on Twitter. The firm initiated the suspsension of client withdrawal operations, as outlined in its Terms of Service for extreme circumstances, and asked users not to deposit funds in their BlockFi Wallets or interest accounts.“Our priority has been and always will be to protect our clients and their interests. We intend to communicate as frequently as possible going forward but anticipate that this will be less frequent than what our clients and other stakeholders are used to,” BlockFi asserted. The news comes just two days after Flori Marquez, Founder and Chief Operating Officer at BlockFi, claimed that the firm’s full range of products were “fully operational”, and that it runs “a pragmatic and diversified lending business and holds risk capital reserves to help protect against potential loan defaults”.Marquez further revealed that BlockFi has a $400 million line of credit from FTX US, and “will remain an independent entity until at least July 2023”, perhaps referring to a deal conferring upon FTX the rights to acquire the lender under certain conditions.That deal now seems to be in jeopardy after reports emerged that FTX possesses a $10 billion hole in its balance sheet, putting it on the brink of bankruptcy. The Sam Bankman-Fried-owned exchange has been accused of sending up to $10 billion in user funds to sister trading firm Alameda Research, which used the capital to engage in risky leverage trading. In light of the revelation, it is expected that Alameda will be closed down.The implosion of FTX seems to have had a significant effect on BlockFi; not only has the firm halted all withdrawals, but Twitter users were able to unearth that the company has just $18.37 million remaining in its six Ethereum wallets, with the majority of the funds held in ETH (10,598, $13.3 million) and USDC ($3 million) tokens. It is unclear whether the firm holds funds elsewhere. BlockFi’s circumstance bears striking resemblance to that of Celsius and Voyager Digital, two crypto lenders that went bust this year in the wake of the Terra Luna collapse. At the time, the firms initially halted withdrawal services, before announcing insolvency just days later. Ultimately Celsius filed for bankruptcy, while Voyager Digital managed to agree on a bailout deal with FTX, which, ironically, now looks set to fall through.

FTX Says It May Have Been 'Hacked,' as $600M in Crypto Vanishes - Hundreds of millions of dollars in funds were mysteriously siphoned out of the collapsing crypto exchange FTX on Friday, in what company executives have referred to as a potential hacking incident.Already a company in a spectacular state of financial and reputational free fall, the once well-respected and heavily promoted cryptocurrency exchange issued a statement Friday that it was looking into a barrage of “abnormal” asset transfers sweeping through accounts. Subsequent analysis seemed to suggest that more than half a billion may have been stolen. The chaos started late Friday when FTX account holders began taking to Twitter to allege that their funds had disappeared. At 11:52 p.m., an admin for the exchange’s Telegram page posted the following statement:

• Ftx has been hacked. All funds seem to be gone.
• FTX apps are malware. Delete them...
• Don’t go on ftx site as it might download Trojans.

Not long afterward, Ryne Miller, the company’s general counsel, tweeted: “Investigating abnormalities with wallet movements related to consolidation of ftx balances across exchanges - unclear facts as other movements not clear. Will share more info as soon as we have it.” Shortly afterward, Miller claimed that the company was routing remaining funds into cold storage—the offline accounts that keep assets secure from hacking—in an attempt to stop any more funds from being transferred.Elliptic, a company that tracks cryptocurrency movements across the internet,said that it had recorded more than $701 million in various tokens leaving the crypto exchange’s coffers on Friday night. In its analysis, Elliptic assessed that some $515 million in assets may have been stolen, while another $186 million potentially represented the assets that FTX had transferred into cold storage. Another blockchain analytics firm, Nansen, estimated that some $659 million flowed out from FTX from Friday to Saturday. The transferred funds involved a variety of tokens, including Solana, Ethereum, Tron, Avalanche, and Binance Smart Chain. The money was squirreled into three separate wallet addresses, after which the transferrer routed at least $220 million through decentralized exchanges, which Elliptic judges as a “common tactic used by thieves seeking to avoid seizure of the stolen assets.”
The timing of this whole episode—less than 24 hours after the company filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy—immediately aroused the suspicions of people online—with many suggesting that this wasn’t a real “hacking” episode but some sort of attempt by FTX insiders to rip off clients and steal half a billion dollars. Some theorized that a small group of FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s “insiders” were behind the apparent theft. FTX, which was once considered one of the most promising enterprises in the crypto industry and boasted endorsements from a host of celebrities such as Tom Brady and Steph Curry, has imploded in a spasm of malfeasance that some have equated to the crypto equivalent of Enron. The firm’s CEO, Bankman-Fried, stepped down from his leadership position on Friday, amidst revelations that the company had been using customer’s money to fund its own risky trading activities and the company was insolvent. A gargantuan amount of customers’ money also appears to have gone missing prior to the recent “hacking” episode. Reuters reports that Bankman-Fried previously transferred some $10 billion in customer funds from FTX to his own company, Alameda Research. Of that sum, at least a billion dollars is said to have vanished into thin air. It’s unclear where it went or what the grand total of missing funds is, Reuters says. Some estimates of the vanished assets put the total value at somewhere between one and two billion dollars. One source told the outlet they thought the number was $1.7 billion. Reuters reports:The financial hole was revealed in records that Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and said they were briefed on the company’s finances by top staff.

Between $1 billion to $2 billion of FTX customer funds have disappeared, SBF had a secret 'back door' to transfer billions: Report - As Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX enters bankruptcy protection, Reuters reports that between $1 billion to $2 billion of customer funds have vanished from the failed crypto exchange. Both Reuters and The Wall Street Journal found that Bankman-Fried, now the ex-CEO of FTX, transferred $10 billion of customer funds from his crypto exchange to the digital asset trading house, Alameda Research. Alameda, also founded by Bankman-Fried, was considered to be a sister company to FTX. Those cozy ties are now under investigation by multiple regulators, including the Department of Justice, as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is probing how FTX handled customer funds, according to multiple reports. Much of the $10 billion sent to Alameda "has since disappeared," according to two people speaking with Reuters. Reuters disclosed that both sources "held senior FTX positions until this week" and added that "they were briefed on the company's finances by top staff." One source estimated the gap to be $1.7 billion. The other put it at something in the range of $1 billion to $2 billion. It appears that Reuters reached Bankman-Fried by text message. The former FTX chief wrote that he "disagreed with the characterization" of the $10 billion transfer, adding that, "We didn't secretly transfer." "We had confusing internal labeling and misread it," the text message read, and when asked specifically about the funds that are allegedly missing, Bankman-Fried wrote, "???" Last Sunday, Bankman-Fried convened a meeting with executives in Nassau to look at FTX's books and figure out just how much cash the company needed to cover the hole in its balance sheet. (Bankman-Fried confirmed to Reuters that the meeting happened.) It had been a rough few days of trade for FTX after Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao tweeted that his company was selling the last of its FTT tokens, the native currency of FTX. That followed an article on CoinDesk, pointing out that Alameda Research, Bankman-Fried's hedge fund, held an outsized amount of FTT on its balance sheet. Not only did Zhao's public pronouncement cause a plunge in the price of FTT, it led FTX customers to hit the exits. Bankman-Fried said in a tweet that FTX clients on Sunday demanded roughly $5 billion of withdrawals, which he called "the largest by a huge margin." That was the day of SBF's emergency meeting in the Bahamian capital. The heads of FTX's regulatory and legal teams were reportedly in the room, as Bankman-Fried revealed multiple spreadsheets detailing how much cash FTX had loaned to Alameda and for what purpose, according to Reuters. Those documents, which apparently reflected the most recent financial state of the company, showed a $10 billion transfer of customer deposits from FTX to Alameda. They also revealed that some of these funds — somewhere in the range of $1 billion to $2 billion — could not be accounted for among Alameda's assets. The financial discovery process also unearthed a "back door" in FTX's books that was created with "bespoke software." The two sources speaking to Reuters described it as a way that ex-CEO Bankman-Fried could make changes to the company's financial record without flagging the transaction either internally or externally. That mechanism theoretically could have, for example, prevented the $10 billion transfer to Alameda from being flagged to either his internal compliance team or to external auditors.

FTX says it is investigating 'unauthorized transactions' - Collapsed crypto exchange FTX said on Saturday it was moving funds into offline storage following a series of "unauthorized transactions", with analysts saying millions of dollars worth of assets had been withdrawn from the platform. FTX U.S. general counsel Ryne Miller said in a tweet on Saturday that the exchange was expediting the process of shifting all digital assets into cold storage "to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions." Cold storage refers to crypto wallets that are not connected to the internet to guard against hackers. Late on Friday, Miller tweeted that he was "investigating abnormalities with wallet movements related to consolidation of FTX balances across exchanges." Figures from Singapore-based analytics firm Nansen showed a one-day net outflow from FTX of about $266 million, with $73 million withdrawn from FTX U.S. alone. FTX did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. Prior to Miller's tweets, FTX officials appeared to confirm rumors of a hack on the firm's Telegram channel, according to a CoinDesk report which said that the exchange had instructed customers to delete FTX apps and avoid its website. "FTX has been hacked," an account administrator in the FTX Support Telegram channel wrote in a message, according to CoinDesk. Reuters could not immediately verify the details posted on FTX's private Telegram channel. FTX, affiliated crypto trading firm Alameda Research and about 130 of its other companies have filed for bankruptcy court protection from creditors in Delaware, FTX said on Friday. The distressed crypto trading platform had struggled to raise billions as traders withdrew $6 billion in crypto tokens from the platform in just 72 hours and rival exchange Binance abandoned a proposed rescue deal this week.

"FTX Isn't The Canary In The Coal-Mine, FTX Is The Coal-Mine... & It Just Collapsed" - I have specifically avoided writing about Bitcoin despite having strong opinions on the subject. Bitcoin is a very hot topic, and most people have already made up their minds. In short, I think it has zero value but that argument has been made many times before so I couldn’t add anything new to the conversation. Full disclosure, I have been in the Crypto market since 2013 and am net positive. That said, given recent market events, I cannot sit by in good conscience without giving fair warning. This is not a Bitcoin is worthless analysis, this is a wake-up call to push people to ask what is keeping this market from imploding. FTX isn’t the canary in the coal mine (that was Celsius, or one of the other firms that crashed this year). FTX is the coal mine, and it just collapsed.I think the data shows that this market is being propped up by whales. If the dam breaks it could send markets crashing. Back on Oct 31, before anything happened with FTX, I texted a close friend:My new theory is that the whales are not trying to pump the price anymore. Instead, they are trying to stabilize the price to win back institutional investors. I have never seen bitcoin price volatility so low over a 6 month stretch in 10 years. It just totally stopped moving after an epic collapse back in June. No bounce, no continuation, no nothing. Just super tight price range even while the stock market has continued falling.I was led to this thinking after watching Bitcoin crash in June to ~19k and then just hold. It spent the next few months consolidating while the bond and stock markets went into turmoil. See the chart below with the simple price of SPY overlaid on top of Bitcoin since 2021. You may notice how steady the orange line has been since June 21, directly after the Bitcoin crash below $20k. Let’s compare the 30-day rolling annualized standard deviation between Bitcoin and the SPY. This chart shows the difference in volatility between Bitcoin and SPY. Notice how it has been collapsing in recent months, and Bitcoin was actually less volatile than the S&P for a brief period in October. Since when is Bitcoin less volatile than the S&P 500? That has quickly reversed since the FTX fiasco.However, while price volatility is falling, trade volume is not. The next chart is the 30-day rolling average trade volume of Bitcoin compared to the price. Once again you can notice a misalignment. As volume was steadily increasing over the last several months, the price stayed in a tight range.Usually, large changes in volume are accompanied by large moves in price. But in this case, volume was moving up steadily while the price stayed nearly flat. How and why was this happening?As I alluded to above in my text to a friend, this looked like an artificial market. The market nearly collapsed back in June and then just flatlined near 20k. That doesn’t happen, especially in Bitcoin. After this past week though, I am now convinced this market is being artificially propped up. After all, 27% of the market is dominated by a super minority of less than 0.01%. They have a major vested interest in keeping this market inflated. I think the increased volume against stable price action is from whales defending the price and painting the tapeI won’t rehash what happened with FTX this week (there are 1,000s of articles explaining the epic collapse). Instead, I will just highlight that this is a MAJOR event in the Crypto space. To Crypto, this would be like 3 Enron happenings all at once, or Enron and Madoff happening in the same weekend. This is catastrophic on every level, but the price of Bitcoin only fell by about 20%. What?!?

FTX balance sheet, revealed - The Financial Times has seen a copy of an FTX balance sheet dated to Thursday, November 10, which shows the bankrupt crypto exchange had only $900mn of assets it could easily sell, despite having $9bn of liabilities. Here’s the story:The document, shared with prospective investors before the bankruptcy, provides a detailed picture of the financial hole in the FTX crypto empire and suggests customers of FTX international may face steep losses on cash and crypto assets they held on the exchange.Do read the full report. And after that, have a browse of the source document. (H/TAntoine Gara et al.) (embedded) [Zoom] Metadata on the Excel file suggests it was created by Sam Bankman-Fried himself. It seems reasonable therefore to assume that the informal comments are his.Also note the headline disclaimer:Note: all of these are rough values, and could be slightly off; there is also obviously a chance of typos etc. They also change a bit over time as trades happen.Let us know in the comments if you spot anything interesting. The “$2.2bn” of the obscure, nearly worthless Serum token is an obvious highlight, though we’d also like to know more about those illiquid investments including “TWTR” and “TRUMPLOSE”. Anyone with information to share can use the FT’s secure contact methods.

Cryptos Rebound After Binance CEO Announces Industry Recovery Fund, Calls For Regulation --Following the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX crypto exchange, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in crypto market value (and spilling over into broader equity markets), with risks mounting that other exchanges could see similar bank runs, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao "CZ" unveiled that he was preparing a crypto recovery fund to industry players facing a liquidity crunch and called for regulations. "To reduce further cascading negative effects of FTX, Binance is forming an industry recovery fund, to help projects who are otherwise strong, but in a liquidity crisis," CZ tweeted early Monday, adding that he welcomes "other industry players with cash who wants to co-invest. Crypto is not going away. We are still here. Let's rebuild." After tumbling earlier in the session, Bitcoin and Ethereum immediately jumped on the tweet that has received more than 48k likes and nearly 9.5k retweets. The upside move in Bitcoin was about 7%. At the G20 summit in Bali, CZ called for more regulations, according to Reuters."We do need to do this properly, we do need to do this in a stable way.""I think the industry collectively has a role to protect consumers, to protect everybody. So it's not just regulators. Regulators have a role but it's not 100% their responsibility."CZ's tweet comes after rival FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday. As of last Thursday, FTX Trading International only had $900 million in liquid assets against $9 billion of liabilities. Then there were reports over the weekend that hundreds of millions of dollars were stolen from FTX's crypto wallets in a brazen hack. This led some in the crypto community to worry about the stability of other exchanges. Early last week, CZ abandoned a move to rescue FTX. After walking away from the rescue deal, Binance released this statement: "In the beginning, our hope was to be able to support FTX's customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help." For now CZ's announcement appears to have halted the death by billions of sell orders that have hit crypto but as many have warned in the past two days, it is only a matter of time before the next major crisis tests the faith of the bulls.

Binance CEO CZ on FTX crash: ‘We’ve been set back a few years’ --With one of the biggest crypto businesses falling overnight after getting caught misappropriating user funds, CZ believed the episode was devastating for the industry, which took away a lot of consumer confidence.Crypto exchange FTX joined many other fallen projects — including Terra, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius and Voyager — in filing for bankruptcy in 2022. Owing to the devastation caused by multi-billion United States dollar losses suffered by businesses and investors, the man running the biggest crypto exchange, Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, envisions an era of greater regulatory scrutiny in the near future.With one of the biggest crypto businesses falling overnight, CZ believed the episode was devastating for the industry, which took away a lot of consumer confidence. Speaking at Indonesia Fintech Summit 2022, he said: “I think basically we've been set back a few years now. Regulators rightfully will scrutinize this industry much, much harder, which is probably a good thing, to be honest.”Regulations in crypto historically circled around Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML). However, CZ reiterated his long-standing belief that regulations must focus on exchange operations, such as business models and proof of reserves. As a result, he believed that tighter regulatory scrutiny around crypto business operations is around the corner. CZ sharing his thoughts on FTX and the future of crypto during Indonesia Fintech Summit 2022. Source: YouTubeWhile FTX’s collapse is bound to have a short-term impact on retail investors, in the longer term, this is a wake-up call for discussions about how to handle risks across crypto ecosystems. Speaking specifically about FTX, he said:“The last three days is just a revelation of problems. The problems were there way longer. This problem wasn’t created in the last three days.”CZ pointed out that the biggest red flag about FTX was Alameda Research’s financials, which were full of FTX Token, that made him finalize the decision to sell off Binance’s FTT holdings worth over $2 billion at the time. The following day, FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried reached out to CZ with a deal that “did not make sense from a number of fronts”. At the same time, CZ hoped to get an over-the-counter (OTC) deal for protecting users:“Original intention was let's save the users, but then the news of misappropriating user funds, especially U.S Regulatory Agencies investigations (made us realize) we can't touch that anymore.”CZ believes that increasing transparency and educating regulatory agencies about crypto audits and cold wallet information will make the industry much healthier. Finding the right balance of rules is not asked, he said.The entrepreneur highlighted the need for easy tools for saving private keys and other security functionalities but argued that the crypto ecosystem will grow in incremental steps and not giant leaps.Taking a proactive approach to regaining investor confidence, Binance published a new page titled “Proof of Assets,” which displays details about the exchange’s on-chain activity for its hot and cold wallet addresses.“Our objective is to allow users of our platform to be aware and make informed decisions that are aligned with their financial goals,” said Binance in an official statement.

A Shocking Defense Of Crypto From JPMorgan: "The FTX Collapse Will Be A Massive Ramp For Institutional Adoption" -With many commentators mistakenly equating one person's record-breaking fraud - namely SBF hubris that he has full immunity from prosecution just because he is a prominent democrat donor - with the failings of the entire crypto space (odd how nobody said Jon Corzine bringing MF Global down with his fraud exposed the failings of fiat currencies) over the past 24 hours we have seen two very unexpected voices speaking out in defense of cryptocurrencies.The first comes from Deutsche Bank which notes that just one year ago, in November 2021, the price of one Bitcoin exceeded $65,000, hitting an all time high, whereas just last week, Bitcoin hit a two-year low at just below $16,000 and the FTX crypto exchange deal collapsed.But while DB's Marion Laboure writes that investors have suffered significant losses, she also believes "this second “crypto winter” will be a net positive because the FTX collapse will edge the crypto ecosystem closer to the established financial sector." Specifically, the DB analyst writes that the FTX crash spotlighted well-known structural issues in the crypto ecosystem: "insufficient reserves, conflict of interest, a lack of regulation and transparency, and unreliable data." And as a result of the FTX collapse, "market concentration is greater than ever, with Binance being the biggest winner."The German bank goes on to note that "every time a major player in the crypto industry fails, the ecosystem suffers a confidence crisis. There are significant consumer and retail losses, but so far there is no systemic risk. However, this confidence crisis requires crypto investors to trust in the “Tinkerbell Effect” even more; in other words, the value of a crypto asset will depend entirely on what people believe it is worth." The Deutsche strategist concludes that "as we have seen, crypto assets are high-risk products that can cause massive personal losses. For this reason, we continue to argue that regulators should quickly require crypto companies to comply with the rules imposed on traditional investment products. This would restrict crypto companies from fishing for financially illiterate consumers while governments develop overarching regulatory frameworks. The need is urgent. Several factors have aligned to create a potentially dismal situation for average consumers who may be susceptible to misleading information."A more surprising defense of crypto came from JPMorgan crypto analyst Steven Alexopoulos, who - just hours after JPM's Nick Panigirtzoglou said that he expects more contagion and more liquidations as a result of the FTX collapse - wrote that far from being the death knell of the crypto sector, "the collapse of FTX a Painful Step Back but Might Prove to be the Catalyst that Moves Crypto Two Steps Forward." Below we excerpt from the JPM note (available to pro subs in the usual place).With FTX emerging earlier this year as a white knight, bailing out troubled crypto-related companies, the news of FTX itself collapsing this week sent shockwaves through the crypto markets. While this is certainly a major short-term setback, we see the widely publicized collapse of FTX as potentially dramatically accelerating the timeline to which crypto-related regulation will be ushered in (similar to new banking regulation which followed the GFC). As a result, we see the news surrounding FTX as one step back, but one that could prove to be the catalyst to move the crypto economy two steps forward (further unlocking the utility value of blockchain). In fact, we see the establishment of a regulatory framework as the needed catalyst to massively ramp the institutional adoption of crypto. And the punchline which we have been making ever since the news of the FTX collapse first broke:Moreover, while the news of the collapse of FTX is empowering crypto skeptics, we would point out that all of the recent collapses in the crypto ecosystem have been from centralized players and not from decentralized protocols.

FTX faces criminal probe in Bahamas after company collapses, loses $1 billion in crypto -- The cryptocurrency exchange FTX is facing a criminal inquiry in the Bahamas after the company filed for bankruptcy and essentially collapsed last week.FTX, co-founded by former crypto billionaire and top Democratic donor Sam Bankman-Fried, reported that roughly $1 billion in crypto funds had vanished due to "unauthorized transactions." The company is based in the Bahamas and filed for bankruptcy last week, leading to an investigation from the country's securities commission, Bloomberg reported Sunday."In light of the collapse of FTX globally and the provisional liquidation of FTX Digital Markets Ltd., a team of financial investigators from the Financial Crimes Investigation Branch are working closely with the Bahamas Securities Commission to investigate if any criminal misconduct occurred," a police spokesman told the outlet.Bankman-Fried resigned as the FTX CEO last week in a letter that also filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. FTX was the third-largest crypto market in the world at the start of last week when it announced liquidity problems and would need a massive infusion of cash to stay afloat.Binance, the world's largest crypto market, initially stepped in and offered to buy the company, but it backed out of the deal after looking into FTX's finances.Reuters, citing two people familiar with the matter, reported that at least $1 billion of customer funds had disappeared and that people told the news outlet that Bankman-Fried had secretly transferred $10 billion of customer funds from FTX to his trading company Alameda Research.The two sources told Reuters that Bankman-Fried — in a meeting he confirmed took place — shared records with other senior executives that revealed the financial hole.Spreadsheets reportedly showed that between $1 and $2 billion dollars of the funds were not accounted for among Alameda's assets and that the spreadsheets did not indicate where the money was moved.FTX is also reportedly facing potential investigations from the U.S. Justice Department and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Prosecutors in the Manhattan U.S. attorney's office are reportedly investigating FTX, with a focus on customer funds at the collapsed crypto exchange -The Manhattan U.S. attorney's office is investigating FTX, according to news reports Monday, following the failure of the cryptocurrency exchange that was once valued at more than $32 billion.Prosecutors at the Department of Justice's Southern District of New York have opened a probe, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed source. Reuters last week reported, citing sources, that at least $1 billion of customer funds had vanished from Bahamas-based FTX.The Wall Street Journal also reported that prosecutors in the Manhattan U.S. attorney's office have opened an investigation into the once third-largest crypto exchange.The WSJ report said prosecutors may focus, at least initially, on examining reports that FTX lent customer funds to Alameda Research to fund risky venture investments made by the quantitative trading firm. Both Alameda and FTX were founded and run by 30-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried.A probe in Manhattan would widen the legal scrutiny facing FTX and Bankman-Fried. The Securities and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had for months been investigating FTX.com in how it handled client funds, Bloomberg reported last week. SEC Chair Gary Gensler last week declined to offer formal confirmation of the investigation.FTX and its affiliates last week filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and Bankman-Fried stepped down as CEO after the crypto exchange failed to secure a bailout as it faces a liquidity crunch. Sam Bankman-Fried on Saturday was interviewed by Bahamian police and regulators, Bloomberg reported, according to a person familiar with the matter. Law-enforcement inquiries in the Bahamas don't necessarily mean someone will be arrested or charged with a crime, the report said.

Sam Bankman-Fried faces criminal probe for 'gambling' FTX investors' cash on Alameda Research - Crypto trading firms are scrambling to prevent mass withdrawals after it emerged the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX platform is under investigation by attorneys in Manhattan.The Manhattan U.S. attorney's office is looking at whether FTX misused client funds by lending billions of dollars to a separate trading firm founded by Bankman-Fried.A probe puts the FTX founder, whose fortune has been decimated by the crisis, under threat of charges including wire fraud.Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remained under pressure on Monday, prompting rival exchanges to reassure jittery investors.The world's top exchanges experienced outflows of a combined $6.2 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the week from November 6 to November 13, according to one analysis.CryptoQuant found $3.7 billion worth of Bitcoin and $2.5 billion of Ether were moved out of exchanges.The collapse of FTX follows a series of rapid developments since last week:

• FTX was unable to fulfill a run on deposits when customers tried to withdraw $6 billion in 72 hours
• Binance, FTX's largest rival, backed out of a proposed bailout after finding a 'black hole' in the books
• US investigators began looking at concerns FTX was using customer deposits to fund risky bets through a separate hedge fund founded by Bankman-Fried
• Bitcoin has fallen around 18 percent in November after the FT crisis shocked the crypto markets
• Bankman-Fried is now holed-up in the Bahamas penthouse he shared with several of his inner circle and has be quizzed by the nation's police

Crypto.com, one of the world’s top ten platforms by turnover, insisted it was ‘business as usual’ and doubters would be ‘proved wrong’. Kris Marszalek, CEO of the Singapore-based exchange, refuted suggestions it could be in trouble, adding: 'We will just continue with our business as usual and we will prove all the naysayers - and there are many of these right now on Twitter over the last couple of days - we will prove them all wrong with our actions. 'We will continue operating as we have always operated. We will continue being a safe and secure place where everybody can access crypto.' The site reportedly had withdrawals of $53 million during a ten-and-a-half hour period this weekend. Argus Inc, a blockchain analysis firm which analyzed the data, said the site had enough funds to meet withdrawals. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slid back below $16,000 early on Monday before recovering to trade at $16,774, up 2.8 percent on the day. Still, with losses so far in November at 18%, it remains set for its biggest monthly fall in percentage terms since June.

Alameda Frontran Crypto Tokens Ahead Of New Listings On FTX - Another day, and one more shoe drops in the ongoing FTX scandal. In the latest episode in this relentless scandal-drama, the WSJ reports that the trading arm of Sam Bankman-Fried's empire, Alameda Research, was quietly amassing stakes in various cryptos ahead of announcements that FTX would be listing them for trade, a practice that is patently illegal.Citing analysis of public blockchain data from analytics firm Argus, the Wall Street Journal reported that on the days FTX said it would be listing "new" tokens between 2021 and March of this year, Alameda had already amassed roughly $60 million worth of tokens ahead of time, arguably to sell into the burst of customer demand and make a huge risk-free profit.This dollar amount was combined across 18 different coin listings tied to the Ethereum blockchain, according to the report, which goes on to note that while it's unclear whether Alameda sold the tokens, the practice continues to raise questions about regulations in the world of crypto, where illegal frontrunning and other manipulative tactics have become a way of life. The report notes the obvious - that the listings on FTX added "both liquidity and a stamp of legitimacy" to tokens, which would then often boost their prices. Omar Amjad, co-founder of Argus, told the Wall Street Journal: “What we see is they’ve basically almost always in the month leading up to it bought into a position that they previously didn’t. It’s quite clear there's something in the market telling them they should be buying things they previously hadn’t."Obviously, both Alameda and FTX did not respond to WSJ questions, although Bankman-Fried did tell the financial paper back in February that Alameda "had the same access to information as all other market makers on the platform and that its traders didn’t have special access to client information". Spoiler alert: they did.

Big Law Firm, Sullivan & Cromwell, Did Significant Legal Work for Bankrupt Crypto Exchange, FTX -By Pam and Russ Martens -- According to Reuters, Sullivan & Cromwell has been named as one of the advising law firms to the disgraced crypto exchange, FTX, in its bankruptcy proceedings. Sam Bankman-Fried, the co-founder and CEO of FTX, vaporized the high-profile crypto firm from a $32 billion valuation to smoldering ashes last week.Reuters reported that Bankman-Fried had moved as much as $10 billion of FTX customers’ money to his separate hedge fund, Alameda Research, through a “backdoor” in its software. Alameda had lost much of the money on wild bets while $1 billion to $2 billion had just “disappeared,” according to Reuters. The Financial Times reported that FTX held just $900 million “in easily sellable assets” against $9 billion “of liabilities the day before it collapsed into bankruptcy.”The FTX news grew even more bizarre over the weekend with the New York Times reporting that $515 million may have been stolen or hacked from FTX after the bankruptcy filing. This raises serious concerns about the capability of those put in charge of the bankruptcy proceedings to safeguard what’s left of the assets.Bankman-Fried was replaced as FTX CEO on Friday with the naming of John J. Ray III to replace him, a lawyer serving as the chief counsel at Greylock Partners LLC, who previously oversaw the liquidation of Enron.The selection of Sullivan & Cromwell as a bankruptcy advisor to FTX might be problematic for some of its looted investors and customers, given Sullivan & Cromwell’s past work for FTX.The General Counsel of FTX.US, the FTX exchange serving customers in the U.S., is former Sullivan & Cromwell partner, Ryne Miller, who had co-chaired the law firm’s commodities, futures and derivatives group and worked at the law firm for eight years prior to joining this speculative, upstart crypto exchange. Miller had previously served as legal counsel for the current SEC Chair, Gary Gensler, when Gensler was Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. FTX.US is also included in the recent bankruptcy filing of FTX, despite Bankman-Fried Tweeting that the firm was fine just days before the bankruptcy filing.Another Sullivan & Cromwell partner involved with FTX is Ken Li, who represented FTX.US last year in its acquisition of crypto derivatives firm, LedgerX, which provides trading in crypto futures, options and swaps to both retail and institutional clients.But of greatest significance was Sullivan & Cromwell’s representation of both Alameda Research and FTX in their joint bid to purchase the assets of bankrupt crypto exchange, Voyager Digital Holdings, last year. While Sullivan & Cromwell’s website states that it represented FTX.US in its winning bid, the filings in the court case indicate that Sullivan & Cromwell lawyers Andrew G. Dietderich, Brian D. Glueckstein, and Benjamin S. Beller were also representing Alameda Research, Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund that is alleged to have misappropriated customers’ funds from the FTX exchange. One bankruptcy filing in the Voyager matter by the Sullivan & Cromwell attorneys offers this:FTX US cryptocurrency exchanges respectively (together ‘FTX’), and Alameda made a public proposal conveyed to the Debtors for a transaction to provide customers immediate liquidity by moving assets and customer relationships to the respective FTX platform (the ‘Joint Proposal’). Under the Joint Proposal, the cash value of all appropriate digital assets relating to the retail customer claims and all participating retail customers would move to either FTX.com or, for any customers that are US residents, to FTX.us. Each customer would immediately receive a ratable share of the value of the assets moved, subject to this Court’s approval. Customers would receive this value in a liquid account and be able immediately to withdraw the cash or trade in cryptocurrency.”According to documents, Voyager had approximately one million customer accounts that could potentially move to the FTX international or FTX.US exchanges. Given the number of customers and their life savings that would be impacted, one would have thought that Sullivan & Cromwell would have done due diligence to ascertain if FTX had reliable and stable finances and proper accounting practices.

Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX Were Up to No Good, Including Their Customer Agreement by Yves Smith -The financial press has been all over the untimely demise of crypto “exchange” FTX and probable prosecution of its founder Sam Bankman-Fried. It’s too bad that for the most part, the financial press is still promoting the fraud-friendly Wild West of crypto by employing nomenclature that crypto touts use when talking to the press and customers that they disavow in their own legal agreements. FTX, for instance, disavowed that it was an exchange, as presumably most crypto “exchanges” do.¹We’ll start at the 50,000 foot level. FTX went bankrupt last Friday, with under $1 billion in liquid assets versus $ 9 billion in liabilities. Mind you, this black hole developed after Sam Bankman-Fried transferred $10 billon from FTX to his affiliated hedge fund, Alameda Research.Many have taken to bandying about the term “Ponzi scheme”. But that’s doing a disservice to Ponzi schemes. Ponzi are well-ordered affairs and can carry on for quite a long time as long as there is enough new money coming in to satisfy the cash demands of those already in enterprise. Bernie Madoff’s ran for more than 20 years.By contrast, setting out to falsify books and records sure looks like a plan to steal. From Reuters:Bankman-Fried showed several spreadsheets to the heads of the company’s regulatory and legal teams that revealed FTX had moved around $10 billion in client funds from FTX to Alameda, the two people said. The spreadsheets displayed how much money FTX loaned to Alameda and what it was used for, they said.The documents showed that between $1 billion and $2 billion of these funds were not accounted for among Alameda’s assets, the sources said. The spreadsheets did not indicate where this money was moved, and the sources said they don’t know what became of it.In a subsequent examination, FTX legal and finance teams also learned that Bankman-Fried implemented what the two people described as a “backdoor” in FTX’s book-keeping system, which was built using bespoke software.They said the “backdoor” allowed Bankman-Fried to execute commands that could alter the company’s financial records without alerting other people, including external auditors. This set-up meant that the movement of the $10 billion in funds to Alameda did not trigger internal compliance or accounting red flags at FTX, they said.Get a load of the lack of agency: “FTX had moved around $10 billion of assets” as if no one in particular were responsible. Bankman-Fried denied creating the backdoor to Reuters, but he’s also trying to pass of the transferred and then disappeared $10 billion as just some sort of spreadsheet thingie that everybody missed.And that’s not the only another backdoor. FTX let Bahamanian investors withdraw, citing regulatory preference. Wellie, someone profited from that: – Algod realizes that he may not get his money, so thinks: What if I just did identity fraud? Openly offers $100K on his Twitter if someone from FTX would process his fake KYC application as a Bahamian to make this happen. pic.twitter.com/lucPxbAWZ4 Oh and this theft of the few remaining customer coins was set in motion by none other than FTX.From the Financial Times:The Bahamas market regulator also said that it “has not directed, authorised or suggested to FTX Digital Markets Ltd the prioritisation of withdrawals for Bahamian clients”. FTX, which is based in the island nation, said after it halted customer withdrawals last week that it would allow redemptions of Bahamian funds “per Bahamian HQ’s regulation and regulators”.Now FTX just happens to be headquartered in the Bahamas. Bankman-Fried is being detained by Bahamian authorities (they have a cute formulation, “under supervision“). It is not hard to surmise that FTX took this step to allow the execs and any staffers and friends in the Bahamas to hoover out the remaining monies.On top of that, there’s allegedly a hack. It’s not clear whether it overlaps with the backdoor, the Bahamian two-step, or is a completely different scam, but it looks like the last.

FTX Was Creating Money Out of Thin Air Like the Fed; and Trading Its Own “Stock” Like the Wall Street Mega Banks in their Dark Pools - by Pam Martens and Russ Martens - On June 10 of last year, we penned this headline: Seven Years after Michael Lewis Described on National TV How the U.S. Stock Market Is Rigged, SEC Chair Gensler Says He’s Going to Tackle Market Structure. Unfortunately for confidence in U.S. markets, that’s yet to happen. And it’s not just the fault of Gensler. The Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee that should be holding in-depth hearings on the most corrupted market structure since 1929 have opted instead to hold superficial hearings each time something blows up as a result of that corrupted market structure, but never actually get around to tackling the corrupt market structure itself.So here we are today with another abject failure of market structure causing a week of sensational headlines around the globe that make U.S. markets look unhinged.If one looks very closely at the structure of FTX, the collapsed crypto exchange now in bankruptcy and causing everything it touched to teeter, it was actually using a technique of the U.S. central bank – the Fed – to create money out of thin air; and a technique we’ve been writing about repeatedly since 2014, Wall Street mega banks trading their own stocks in their own Dark Pools, effectively making a market in their own stock.Let’s start with our comparison of what FTX was doing to the Fed’s creation of money out of thin air by pushing an electronic button. You don’t have to take our word for what the Fed is doing. The Fed actually created an educational video to explain how it creates electronic money out of thin air. That video was released in 2011 and the spokesman for the Fed says this in the video: “The Fed will not keep buying large amounts of securities on an ongoing basis,” noting that “Its purchases are a temporary measure to help the economy recover.”At the time of that video on January 14, 2011, the Fed had used its magic money button to buy up $2.2 trillion of debt securities from Wall Street, thus pushing the interest rates on debt instruments artificially lower. And despite that promise that this would be a “temporary measure” the Fed continued over the next decade to use its magic money spigot to the point that it now holds $8.256 trillion of debt securities on its balance sheet and it can’t figure out how to unwind that monster pile of debt securities without collapsing the U.S. economy.What Sam Bankman-Fried, co-founder and CEO of FTX, did with the help of his colleagues, was to create their own magic money creation tool. It was a crypto token called FTT and was backed by nothing more than the hyped reputation of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried. In that sense, it traded much like the “stock” of FTX.And much like the price of debt on Wall Street was levitated by the Fed’s $8 trillion buying binge over a decade, the price of FTT soared through a buying binge by FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried’s own hedge fund, Alameda Research. FTT’s price went from less than $4 in December 2020 to more than $84 in September 2021 – a 2,000 percent gain in less than a year. (And all those sophisticated institutional investors in FTX didn’t find that suspicious?) This morning FTT is trading at $1.61 – despite the fact that some very sophisticated investors in FTX have written down their investment to zero.CNBC explains what was going on with the FTT token as follows:“The source explained that Alameda could post the FTT tokens it held as collateral and borrow customer funds. Even if FTX created more FTT tokens, it would not drive down the coin’s value because these coins never made it onto the open market. As a result, these tokens held their market value, allowing Alameda to borrow against them – essentially receiving free money to trade with.“FTX had been able to sustain this pattern as long as it maintained the price of FTT and there was not a flood of customer withdrawals on the exchange. In the week leading up to the bankruptcy filing, FTX did not have enough assets to match customer withdrawals, the source said.” Reuters reported that Bankman-Fried had moved as much as $10 billion of FTX customers’ money to his hedge fund, Alameda Research, through a “backdoor” in its software. Alameda lost much of the money on wild bets while $1 billion to $2 billion had just “disappeared,” according to Reuters. The Financial Times reported that FTX held just $900 million “in easily sellable assets” against $9 billion “of liabilities the day before it collapsed into bankruptcy.”CoinDesk reported that a significant amount of the assets listed at Alameda were FTT tokens. In trading FTT, the equivalent of stock in FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried was using a technique deployed by Wall Street mega banks to trade their own bank stock – right under the nose of their comatose regulators – in what are called Dark Pools. These Dark Pools are effectively unregulated stock exchanges operated internally by the trading units of the mega banks.To make a long story short, those FTX wizards from MIT and Stanford seem to have adopted the corrupt market structure of Wall Street and simply tweaked it for crypto.

FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Lists Bahamas Penthouse For $40 Million -- FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has listed his Bahamas penthouse for sale at $39,500,000 following the collapse of his net worth when his crypto exchange imploded. The 12,000 square-ft, five bedroom residence is located in the luxury Albany resort was listed last week, according to Semafor, however the realtor declined to name the owner. That said, people close to current and former FTX employees who have been at the residence confirmed that it was SBF's pad. After growing to become one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday, while Bankman-Fried, resigned as CEO. He has been reportedly looking to liquidate other holdings in recent days, with the Financial Times reporting that he was looking to offload his large stake in brokerage Robinhood, worth around $472 million, for a 20% discount.

From $32 billion to criminal investigations: How Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto empire vanished overnight --The Kimchi Swap put Sam Bankman-Fried on the map. The year was 2017, and the ex-Jane Street Capital quant trader noticed something funny when he looked at the page on CoinMarketCap.com listing the price of bitcoin on exchanges around the world. Today, that price is pretty much uniform across the exchanges, but back then, Bankman-Fried previously told CNBC, he would sometimes see a 60% difference in the value of the coin. His immediate instinct, he said, was to get in on the arbitrage trade — buying bitcoin on one exchange, selling it back on another exchange, and then earning a profit equivalent to the price spread."That's the lowest hanging fruit," Bankman-Fried said in September. The arbitrage opportunity was especially compelling in South Korea, where the exchange-listed price of bitcoin was significantly more than in other countries. It was dubbed the Kimchi Premium — a reference to the traditional Korean side dish of salted and fermented cabbage. After a month of personally dabbling in the market, Bankman-Fried launched his own trading house, Alameda Research — named after his hometown of Alameda, California, near San Francisco — to scale the opportunity and work on it full-time. Bankman-Fried said in an interview in September that the firm sometimes made as much as a million dollars a day. Part of why SBF, as he's also called, earned street cred for carrying out a relatively straightforward trading strategy had to do with the fact that it wasn't the easiest thing to execute on crypto rails five years ago. Bitcoin arbitrage involved setting up connections to each one of the trading platforms, as well as building out other complicated infrastructure to abstract away a lot of the operational aspects of making the trade. Bankman-Fried's Alameda became very good at that, and the money rolled in. From there, the SBF empire ballooned.Alameda's success spurred the launch of crypto exchange FTX in the spring of 2019. FTX's success begat a $2 billion venture fund that seeded other crypto firms. Bankman-Fried's personal wealth grew to over $16 billion at its peak in March.Bankman-Fried was suddenly the poster boy for crypto everywhere, and the FTX logo adorned everything from Formula 1 race cars to a Miami basketball arena. The 30-year-old went on an endless press tour, bragged about having a balance sheet that could one day buy Goldman Sachs, and became a fixture in Washington, where he was one of the Democratic Party's top donors, promising to sink $1 billion into U.S. political races before later backtracking.It was all a mirage.As crypto prices tanked this year, Bankman-Fried boasted that he and his enterprise were immune. But in fact, the sectorwide wipeout hit his operation quite hard. Alameda borrowed money to invest in failing digital asset firms this spring and summer to keep the industry afloat, then reportedly siphoned off FTX customers' deposits to stave off margin calls and meet immediate debt obligations. A Twitter fight with the CEO of rival exchange Binance pulled the mask off the scheme.

FTX gives Congress a reason to rein in crypto. The question is how. - The precipitous collapse of the cryptocurrency platform FTX has given Congress the imperative to take action on the digital-asset industry, but done little to foster consensus about what a bill should do and how far it should go. In the absence of consensus, the demise of the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange has only made the existing factions dig their heels in deeper. Industry supporters have doubled down on their efforts to give crypto firms similar rights to banks, while skeptics have called for all crypto activity to be rooted out. Those in between still favor some form of regulation but, for the most part, have not decided what it should look like, said Aaron Klein, senior fellow for economic studies at the Brookings Institution. "Each of the three sides have seen something in the FTX collapse to reinforce their prior," Klein said. "The left's prior was that crypto produces limited value and is a scam. The right's prior was regulation isn't going to stop it so we need a more decentralized system. The center is that crypto is really becoming important and more regulation would prevent actors like FTX from getting this big and scamming what looks like billions of dollars from people." Much of the debate around crypto regulation centers on whether and to what degree participants and products from that industry should be able engage with the regulated banking system. One proposal floated over the summer by Sens. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., would make it easier for certain digital asset banks to get access to Federal Reserve accounts. This is a contentious topic, as Custodia Bank — a Wyoming-chartered depository and digital asset custody bank — is suing the Fed over access to a so-called master account. Bank advocacy groups are not pleased with the idea of granting master accounts to groups that deal in crypto or other digital assets. In the immediate aftermath of the FTX collapse, the Bank Policy Institute said keeping such groups out of the regulated banking system prevented more serious fallout from the episode. "The lesson: don't bail out a failing industry by giving it access to Fed accounts and providing it a new business model, thereby linking it to the regulated financial system and heightening the risk that the next cryptoverse crisis actually could harm financial stability," the BPI said on Twitter.

BankThink: The political imperative for an expansive crypto bill has arrived | American Banker -- Last Tuesday was one of those days in the news business that you'll remember forever and tell your grandkids about — unless you're a financial reporter, in which case you just have to assume your grandkids sincerely won't care. It was Election Day, and the conventional wisdom was that Republicans were going to take back the House and very possibly the Senate, fundamentally changing the policy trajectory for the Biden administration, the political dynamics in Washington, and the landscape of the 2024 presidential election. And coincidentally, cryptocurrency exchange FTX — helmed by founder Sam Bankman-Fried, a serious man about Washington — was apparently in talks to be bought by rival crypto exchange Binance.Fast forward to a week later, and not only are those developments not what they first appeared to be, but they are and will likely continue to be intertwined into the foreseeable future. The Republican Party, as of this writing, has not secured control of the House of Representatives, though they are likely to wring out enough seats to hold a majority that is just as narrow — or narrower — than the current Democratic majority. And, as we all learned over the weekend, Republicans have already lost party control of the Senate. That is the more consequential of the two chambers for one reason — presidential appointments to executive and judicial offices run through the Senate, but not the House. The White House apparently got the memo and used the opportunity to nominate acting Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg to another tour as Senate-confirmed FDIC chair.Funny, that. Gruenberg has worked at the FDIC longer than any other board member — he was first appointed to the FDIC board in 2005, and he's been there ever since. He chaired the FDIC board as a Senate-confirmed nominee in the Obama years, and served as acting chair from November 2005 to June 2006, again from July 2011 to November 2012, and once again between when his term expired in November 2017 and Jelena McWilliams was sworn in as chair in June 2018, and of course from February 2022 until the present.Gruenberg is a survivor, and he evidently wants to remain at the FDIC. So why is the administration obliging him — perhaps not coincidentally a day before he is slated to testify before the Senate Banking Committee? Showing up to testify before Congress with the explicit backing of the current administration is a very different experience than showing up without it. I suspect Gruenberg demanded it, and he got it.Part of the reason the administration may have ultimately thought it handy to keep Gruenberg around is because he has carved out something of a profile as a crypto skeptic — and this is where FTX comes in. In January of this year, FTX was valued at $32 billion. Today vultures are picking at the company's bones, and criminal investigations may be forthcoming. That's an incredible reversal of fortune for a titan of the budding crypto industry — and as a leading voice in Washington's slow but inevitable efforts to establish regulatory guardrails for crypto. Bankman-Fried made Congress look stupid, and I don't think they will forget that.Up to this point, the bipartisan legislative action has been limited to the issuance of stablecoins — the portals that facilitate the transformation of real money into crypto and back again. Congress's urgency in working together to nail that down was in many ways informed by the collapse of the Celsius and TerraUSD stablecoins earlier this year. The swift demise of FTX is decidedly bigger, more interconnected with the financial system and more consequential than those other failures, and Congress will have to adjust the aperture of its response accordingly — especially if there are more FTX-like failures yet to come.

Need for crypto legislation grows more urgent, key House lawmakers say -- The House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday ratcheted up its calls for stricter regulation of digital assets, pressing bank regulators about the need for stablecoin legislation and scheduling a hearing for next month on the FTX collapse.The committee's leaders — Chair Maxine Waters, D-Calif., and Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, the panel's ranking Republican — say the fall of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX has made the need for their bipartisan crypto bill more urgent. Waters and McHenry announced a hearing on FTX will be held in December but didn't immediately share an exact date or a witness list. According to a Bloomberg report, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, also plans a hearing on FTX before year-end.The committee "expects to hear from the companies and individuals involved, including Sam Bankman-Fried, Alameda Research, Binance, FTX and related entities, among others," McHenry said in a statement accompanying the hearing announcement.At a hearing Wednesday featuring banking regulators, Waters asked Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr if he supports the overall approach that she and McHenry have outlined in their legislation. As of an October draft, that bill would authorize the Fed to license nonbank stablecoin issuers and introduce a two-year moratorium for algorithmic stablecoins. Barr said he was "deeply encouraged" by the work on the legislation and reiterated the importance of some kind of stablecoin bill. "Stablecoins that are backed by the dollar really borrow the trust of the Federal Reserve," he said. "So it's critical that we have appropriate controls, [and] strong federal oversight of approval of stablecoins and regulation of stablecoins." Other witnesses, including acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu and acting Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg, signaled their support for stronger cryptocurrency regulation. When asked by Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., if crypto standards should be "at least as tough as Basel" standards, each regulator agreed.

GOP's Hawley wants Democrats' emails as FTX collapse turns political - The collapse of the crypto empire founded by political megadonor Sam Bankman-Fried is being transformed into a new political battlefront as Republicans highlight links between Democrats and their onetime benefactor. Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley on Friday sent a broad request for correspondence between federal agencies and Democrats, including the Biden administration and the House and Senate Democrats' campaign committees, regarding the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX and the trading house Alameda Research. Hawley said he's trying to determine whether Bankman-Fried's more than $37 million in political donations to Democrats may have created pressure on regulators to be lenient with the former crypto executive. "Billions of dollars were stolen from investors and handed over to Democrats and left-wing organizations," Hawley said in a letter Friday. "The fact that this scheme was revealed immediately after the midterm elections raises serious questions about whether federal regulators and law enforcement faced conflicts of interest in identifying, investigating, and thwarting the fraudulent scheme." Hawley's request comes amid several congressional probes into the sudden collapse of FTX and is one of the most directly political investigations in what has so far been a largely bipartisan reaction to the exchange's downfall. The top Republican and Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee this week said they were planning to hold a hearing in December on the FTX collapse and that they expect to hear testimony from Bankman-Fried. Republicans have been eager to point out that Bankman-Fried, who was until recently a billionaire, was the second largest individual donor to Democrats in the most recent election. But GOP candidates also took money from FTX executives. One of Bankman-Fried's top lieutenants, Ryan Salame, gave $23.7 million in the most recent cycle, with the vast majority going to Republicans. Bankman-Fried's political involvements have also spurred several unproven theories that are gaining traction with the GOP on Capitol Hill. Several House Republicans signed a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken seeking information about whether federal aid to Ukraine was invested in FTX. Rep. Tom Emmer, a Minnesota Republican, has also said he believes the Securities and Exchange Commission was helping FTX with "legal loopholes" to obtain a regulatory monopoly, but hasn't provided proof.

FTX debacle shows need for crypto regulation, Yellen says -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX crypto empire reinforced her view that the market for digital assets required "very careful regulation." "It shows the weaknesses of this entire sector," Yellen said Saturday in an interview with Bloomberg News. An interconnected assortment of digital-asset entities founded by Bankman-Fried filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Friday. The upheavals at FTX have rattled a crypto market already beset by months of price declines. A court will now weigh in on how to handle the interests of customers, creditors and business partners seeking to be made whole. The filing represents a dramatic collapse for a company that last year said it had more than 5 million users worldwide, and traded more than $700 billion worth of crypto that year alone. Bankman-Fried's $16 billion fortune has now been wiped out, one of history's greatest-ever destructions of wealth. Yellen, who spoke on her way to the Group of 20 leaders summit in Bali, Indonesia, contrasted the case with developed financial markets, where rules better protect investors. "In other regulated exchanges, you would have segregation of customer assets," Yellen said. "The notion you could use the deposits of customers of an exchange and lend them to a separate enterprise that you control to do leveraged, risky investments — that wouldn't be something that's allowed." Bankman-Fried conceded in a Twitter thread on Nov. 10 that FTX had "poor internal labelling" of customer accounts. President Biden signed an executive order in March directing a number of federal agencies including the Treasury to devote more attention to the study and prospective regulation of digital assets. While lamenting losses for retail investors, Yellen said the FTX debacle could have been worse if crypto were more embedded in the financial system. "At least it's not deeply integrated with our banking sector and, at this point, doesn't pose broader threats to financial stability," she said. Yellen also responded to a question on another issue by saying a regulatory tool criticized by big banks wasn't the only factor constraining liquidity in the $24 trillion Treasury securities market. Treasury debt outstanding has climbed by about $7 trillion since the end of 2019. But big financial institutions haven't been as willing to serve as market-makers, burdened by the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, which requires capital to be set aside against a bank's balance sheet holdings, including ultra-safe Treasuries. The SLR is set by the Federal Reserve's board of governors.

Fed's Michael Barr says FTX turmoil shows crypto's risk to financial system - — Michael Barr, vice chairman for supervision at the Federal Reserve, told the Senate Banking Committee that he's concerned about risks outside the banking system, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector. The panel's hearing was the first for the Fed's top banking cop since his nomination was confirmed over the summer. It comes shortly after the unwinding of the crypto firm FTX, which has brought finger-pointing at Washington for not more strictly policing the risks of digital assets. "We're concerned about the risks that we don't know about in the nonbank sector," Barr said. "That includes obviously crypto activity, but more broadly risks in parts of the financial system where we don't have good visibility, we don't have good transparency, we don't have good data. That can create risks that blow back to the financial system that we do regulate." While the tumult in the crypto industry has so far been insulated from banking, some policymakers fear the two are becoming increasingly intertwined. "Most of this activity is occurring outside of the ambit of banking regulation," Barr said in his written remarks. "But recent events remind us of the potential for systemic risk if interlinkages develop between the crypto system that exists today and the traditional financial system." Barr was joined by other top banking regulators, including acting Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Martin Gruenberg and acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, for the first day of the two prudential regulator hearings, which were scheduled before FTX's collapse. Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, the ranking Republican on the committee, pressed regulators on their plans to offer guidance to banks to custody crypto assets. He said that the OCC, under Hsu, has discouraged banks from entering into the business. "If banks can demonstrate that they can do that activity in a safe, sound and fair manner, we're all ears," Hsu said.

 Where’s the Contagion from the Crypto Implosion? - by Wolf Richter - Exactly a year ago, in November 2021, during peak crypto craziness, the market cap of all of the many thousands of crypto tokens combined, from bitcoin on down, hit $3 trillion globally. Today, the market cap is at about $850 billion, so that’s down by 72%. In other words, $2.1 trillion have vanished in 12 months. All kinds of cryptos have imploded, some so-called stablecoins that are supposed to be pegged 1 to 1 to the US dollar, have collapsed overnight. The collapse of the cryptos has triggered the collapse and bankruptcy of a number of crypto exchanges, crypto lenders, crypto hedge funds, crypto miners, etc. It seems the fundamental principal in the crypto zone is that every firm must be deeply interconnected with other firms, each lending to the other, and lending to affiliated hedge funds that then make huge leveraged bets on cryptos, and they’re bidding up each other’s tokens. This, as I like to call it, makes for very smooth and efficient contagion. They all went to heaven together until November 2021. And now they’re all going to heck together. But where is the contagion to the broader market, to other asset classes, to banks, to other players in the economy? FTX, Alameda Research, and affiliated companies imploded spectacularly over the past week and have now filed for bankruptcy, and it’s a huge mess that will drag out for a long time and produce a lot more of the kinds of sordid revelations we’ve already seen. These sordid revelations and allegations emerging on an hourly basis come with huge numbers attached to them, a billion bucks here, $10 billion there, like $10 billion in customer funds being lent by FTX to its affiliated trading outfit Alameda Research where they were then incinerated or whatever. Reports emerged of funds disappearing even after the bankruptcy filing – perhaps due to a hack. The amounts in cryptos that vanished appear to be in the billions of fiat dollars. Every day, there are new twists and turns and revelations of an utterly sordid business with multi-billion-dollar tentacles reaching in all directions. Before FTX there were Voyager Digital and Celsius that both filed for bankruptcy in July. Three Arrows Capital, a hedge fund cross connected with Voyager, also filed for bankruptcy. It was the collapse of Three Arrows Capital that triggered the collapse of Voyager. As the bankruptcy proceedings of FTX.com, FTX US, Alameda Research, and affiliated companies move forward, it will get even messier and more complex, there will be lots more revelations about counterparties and vanished cryptos, about lending customers’ cryptos to hedge funds and other exchanges and whatever, and about relying on homemade collateral, such as native tokens, that then imploded, and about the endless tentacles of cross-connections in the crypto zone. And there will be other crypto lenders that suddenly halt withdrawals and hire bankruptcy counsel. In the wake of FTX’s bankruptcy, another crypto lender, BlockFi, halted withdrawals, preventing customers from taking their cryptos and fiat out. And it hired bankruptcy counsel. BlockFi reportedly loaned Alameda Research some funds, but Alameda Research collapsed, taking these cryptos down with it. The funny thing is that in June, BlockFi was already in trouble and then got a $200 million bailout from FTX, all in cryptos. So the contagion within the crypto zone is smooth and efficient. Not much gets in the way of slowing it down. These crypto companies, and all kinds of other crypto companies, were funded as startups by some of the biggest names in the venture capital industry. Just about the entire VC industry jumped on this crypto stuff. And they just threw hundreds of millions of dollars at each of them, willy-nilly, without oversight, without controls, just wanting to ride up the crypto-gravy train, and they just handed piles of money to some dazzling crypto characters and let them run with it, and they ran with it, and now the money is gone, and customer money may be gone, and billions of dollars of other people’s money are gone. FTX had dozens of venture capital investors that invested $2 billion in FTX over the past two years, with the last round of funding earlier this year at a valuation of $32 billion. These investors include well-known names, such as Sequoia Capital, SoftBank, Lightspeed, BlackRock, and a bunch of others. Their investments in FTX have vanished. And this is how the contagion from the crypto collapse spread to VC funds. Contagion has also spread to companies that are straddling the crypto zone, for example to banks that have some exposure to crypto firms. Silvergate Bank has specialized in dealing with crypto firms, and it has exposure to FTX. The bank is owned by Silvergate Capital, which also has some crypto exposure, and the shares of Silvergate Capital have collapsed by 85% from the peak crypto craziness a year ago. Signature Bank, which tied its fortunes to cryptos, well, its shares are down 61% from the high. SVB Financial Group, which owns Silicon Valley Bank, is heavily exposed to the entire startup scene, including crypto startup companies. Its shares have plunged by 69% from the high. If regular commercial banks have some exposure to these collapsed companies, it’s going to be minor amounts for the bank. Banks are in the business of taking this kind of credit risk. And they can take those losses.

Bitcoin Slides After Genesis Suspends Withdrawals From Crypto Lending Business - The fallout from Sam Bankman-Fried's massive farce continues as crypto brokerage Genesis suspends withdrawals from its lending business. On Oct 10th, Genesis trading revealed that its derivatives business had around $175 million worth of funds locked away in an FTX trading account (hit by its exposure to bankrupt crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, to which it had made a $2.4 billion loan).On Nov 10th, Genesis trading announced that it will receive an additional equity infusion of $140 million from its parent company, Digital Currency Group. According to the company, this decision was made to “strengthen its balance sheet” and boost its “position as a global leader in crypto capital markets.”Genesis sent letters to clients stating that it had obtained an additional equity infusion of $140M from parent company, Digital Currency Group. Genesis, with $175 million locked in FTX, is also the largest creditor to Three Arrows Capital Babel Finance. pic.twitter.com/d77QCODdsf However, it doesn't appear to have helped stem the tide of pain amid the FTX farce as Bloomberg reports that Genesis is suspending redemptions and new loan originations at its lending business after facing what it described as "abnormal withdrawal requests." Chief Executive Officer Derar Islim admitted that withdrawal requests exceeded current liquidity at Genesis Global Capital, the lending arm; but made it clear that Genesis's spot and derivatives trading and custody businesses “remain fully operational.”Genesis also reassured its clients that it doesn’t have “an ongoing lending relationship with FTX or Alameda.”As Bloomberg notes, Genesis is one of the oldest and most well-known cryptocurrency brokers, offering trading and custody services to professional investors in digital assets. Over the past few years it had also established itself as one of the largest cryptocurrency lenders, allowing funds or other market makers to borrow dollars or virtual currencies to leverage their trades. The contagion of Genesis lending issues has already hit one large firm, as Gemini Trust Co., the cryptocurrency platform run by the Winklevoss brothers, has halted withdrawals from its Earn program:"We are aware that Genesis Global Capital, LLC (Genesis) - the lending partner of the Earn program - has paused withdrawals and will not be able to meetcustomer redemptions within the service-level agreement (SLA) of 5 business days. We are working with the Genesis team to help customers redeem their funds from the Earn program as quickly as possible. We will provide more information in the coming days."“The past week has been an incredibly challenging and stressful time for our industry. We are disappointed that the Earn program SLA will not be met, but we are encouraged by Genesis’ and its parent company Digital Currency Group’s commitment to doing everything in their power to fulfill their obligations to customers under the Earn program. We will continue to work with them on behalf of all Earn customers. This is our highest priority. We greatly appreciate your patience,” the statement said.However, the Winklevi make it clear that this does not impact any other Gemini products and services, reassuring clients that Gemini is a full-reserve exchange and custodian -"all customer funds held on the Gemini exchange are held 1:1 and available for withdrawal at any time."Bitcoin prices slipped lower on the headlines...

 A spirited defense of crypto – No, the crypto industry isn’t sorry.As the world grapples with its ongoing meltdown, pundits predict its demise and Washington weighs its response to the fiasco, the reigning face of the crypto industry, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, is unperturbed. He remained defiant in an appearance at the Milken Middle East and Africa Summit this morning, an attitude shared by other industry participants gathered here, who cast the drama of recent days as little more than growing painsIn front of a standing-room only crowd, Zhao defended himself against charges of market manipulation, insisted that his industry was now “healthier” than it had been before he induced the collapse of rival exchange FTX, and said governments should stay in their own lane when it comes to rehabilitating the sector.“Regulation is a key component of it,” he said, “But more importantly, industry players should lead by example.”Binance — already reportedly under investigation by the Justice Department for possible money-laundering violations — risks further scrutiny from Washington for its CEO’s role in the demise of FTX.But Zhao argued that his use of Twitter to broadcast his lack of faith in FTX and its native token exemplified “transparency,” and that the meaning of market manipulation is vague. “All of these things are not very well defined,” he said.When asked, he also declined to say that crypto exchanges should be banned from holding their own tokens as reserves.Among attendees, there were plenty of crypto skeptics from traditional finance who viewed the meltdown as an indictment of the industry. The terms “sham” and “dangerous” were used. But they still crowded into a foyer outside a ballroom at the Rosewood Hotel for their chance to see the “Darth Vader” of crypto.Zhao mostly had the room on his side as he responded to his many antagonists.Yesterday, crypto-skeptic economist Nouriel Roubini suggested Emirati authorities should eject Zhao from the country. Today, the Binance CEO drew laughter with his prediction that “very negative” people like Roubini “will generally stay poor.”Zhao also expounded on his relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried, who last week tweeted, “well played; you won” to an unnamed “sparring partner,” an apparent reference to Zhao.“Only a psychopath can write that tweet,” Zhao said, drawing another round of laughter.Following his on-stage interview, Zhao was mobbed by attendees lining up to pose for photos with him and twice declined to answer questions from DFD about the response brewing in Washington. The mood in Abu Dhabi — which is among a group of Gulf States that have sought to foster the digital assets industry — offered a marked contrast to the apocalyptic tenor of recent news, which has the industry bracing for government crackdowns. Zhao is based in neighboring Dubai, and there is no indication that the Emirates will take Roubini’s advice and boot him from the country. Yesterday, Abu Dhabi Global Markets, the local regulator, announced it had granted Binance a new license to offer financial services. Local crypto entrepreneurs largely shared Zhao’s view that the current meltdown is a natural result of free market processes. “I see it as a massive opportunity,” said one. “It’s cleaning up the space.”

The downfall of the 'king of crypto' could reverberate for years - Trust is a vital element in investing — stocks, bonds, you name it. I trusted Walmart when it reported Tuesday that sales increased last quarter. I trusted Walmart CFO John David Rainey when he told me on Yahoo Finance Liveabout the retailer’s expectations for holiday sales. I trust that when I buy a bond, I will get the principal back with interest at some point in the future. Unfortunately for crypto, the space now faces a major trust deficiency in the wake of the FTX implosion. The cryptocurrency exchange filed for bankruptcy last week, and its CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, resigned. SBF, as he’s known, became a crypto billionaire and a star in the industry by the time he was 29. Now, at 30 years old, SBF has lost his fortune and admitted to loaning FTX customer funds to Alameda Research, a trading firm he co-founded.Cryptocurrency already had a reputation for carrying more risk than traditional investments. But the FTX drama has no doubt sowed even more doubts about digital assets. "I mean, in fact, in a sense, SBF is like the Jordan Belfort of the crypto era. Instead of 'The Wolf of Wall Street,' they'll make a movie called 'The King of Crypto,'" Microstrategy founder and bitcoin bull Michael Saylor told me on Yahoo Finance Live this week. SBF has not been charged with a crime, but a criminal case against him is not out of the question. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are investigating the FTX collapse, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. Still, U.S. prosecutors may run into difficulties because FTX is based in the Bahamas, where SBF lives in a house with a group of friends.How in the world can you trust an industry where a key player sets up business offshore and then potentially exposes himself to a criminal action anyway?How can you put a penny of your hard-earned money into crypto knowing it may vanish one minute later because of the absurd actions by a rich person living in the Bahamas? SBF has tweeted his apologies, writing after the firm filed for bankruptcy: “Hopefully things can find a way to recover. Hopefully this can bring some amount of transparency, trust, and governance to them.” Those words alone won’t restore investors' faith in cryptocurrency, if they had any to begin with. But experts tell Yahoo Finance that there are ways crypto can gain more legitimacy. The main elements needed to win back that trust include:

• — Tough regulations that treat crypto like securities.
• — Repercussions for individuals and businesses that violate the new rules.
• — The elimination of suspect cryptocurrencies.

‌Even with proper regulations and enforcement, the cryptocurrency industry won’t recover overnight from the FTX fiasco. How long could it be before trust comes back? “I think it takes years,” said Semafor business and finance editor Liz Hoffman on Yahoo Finance Live.

FTX came dangerously close to upending futures markets - Everywhere you looked, there it was, the ghostly outline of three letters: FTX. The confab in Chicago this week was supposed to be another celebration for the golden boy of market structure, Sam Bankman-Fried. His FTX flexed its platinum status at an earlier Futures Industry Association conference in Boca Raton, Florida, hosting a late-night cocktail party by the beach, holding a fireside chat with A-Rod and handing out branded swag from its tricked-out mega-booth in the exhibition hall.The 30-year-old brought pizzazz to an industry that lacks fleets of Lamborghinis and is filled with job descriptions like exchange operators, risk managers and commodities regulators that make the eyes glaze over.He and his band of twentysomethings integrated themselves with finance's old guard, who, like everyone from U.S. regulators to politicians to Tom Brady, were willing to listen because they were throwing money around — the go-to strategy in the Bankman-Fried playbook.As became strikingly clear last week, FTX ran its business quite differently than everyone else in the room.While many of the details around FTX's remarkable collapse will only be revealed as it progresses through bankruptcy, interviews with FIA conferencegoers this week show they're facing a reckoning of their own. The group's staff may have papered over the FTX name on banners across the lobby, but they can't fully erase the fact that many sophisticated finance pros were duped by Bankman-Fried's wacky charm.And, had things gone a bit differently, he could have radically altered not just the crypto ecosystem, but, many longtime industry professionals feared, also the critical futures market that touches all corners of finance. FTX's ambitions were grandiose: It wanted to carry out every aspect of customers' crypto derivatives needs on its own, using algorithms rather than brokers to help clear trades."There are a few people in the industry that need to think hard about how someone can appear from nowhere and become the primary sponsor when others have been around for 20-plus years," Trading Technologies Chief Executive Keith Todd said. "This is a wake-up call. The adults need to run this industry. We need innovators, but also adults."Bankman-Fried didn't respond to requests for comment for this article. He spent part of his day Tuesday adding to a cryptic series of Twitter posts, noting that he's been meeting in-person with regulators and working to see what he can do for FTX's customers.On Wednesday, the pain spread across the crypto world. The crypto brokerage Genesis suspended redemptions at its lending business after what it described as "abnormal" requests to pull money in the wake of FTX's collapse.One of its biggest lenders, Gemini Trust Co., the cryptocurrency platform run by the billionaire Winklevoss twins, also halted withdrawals on its lending program.

CFTC commissioner dangles multimillion-dollar payments for crypto informants -A CFTC commissioner has urged crypto industry whistleblowers to come forward in the aftermath of FTX Group's implosion, saying tipsters have previously received millions of dollars for their help.Kristin Johnson of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's aid on Thursday that informants would get anonymity, adding that such tips play a crucial role in enforcement given the opaqueness of some of the crypto world."In the context of the digital-asset space, the value of having those vocal whistleblowers and tipsters is critical," Johnson said in an interview on the sidelines of a City & Financial Global conference in London, adding that crypto frauds can be "heartbreaking."When it comes to payments to people who contribute to the CFTC's ability to identify, investigate and prosecute cases, "the numbers are very big," she said.Under the CFTC's rules, whistleblowers can get awards worth between 10% and 30% of the money the agency collects in penalties from a case. The regulator awarded nearly $200 million to a single unidentified whistleblower in the 2022 fiscal year, the largest amount granted under the Dodd-Frank Act by the CFTC or Securities and Exchange Commission, the regulator said in a statement last month.Johnson added that the appeal was intended "very broadly" and not just for FTX. "All we can do is put out the call because if someone is allowed to get away with it having done it once they will do it again."U.S. regulators are investigating whether FTX.com mishandled customer funds, and they're looking into the firm's relationships with other parts of Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto empire. The inquiries by the SEC and the CFTC relate to the liquidity crisis that has pushed FTX to the brink, Bloomberg News reported last week.Advisors overseeing the ruins of FTX have laid bare a stunning list of allegations against the company's former leadership, slamming nonexistent oversight and the misuse of client funds as they struggle to locate billions of dollars in missing assets.

Treasury recommends bank regulators finalize bank-fintech relationship guidance — The Treasury Department in a new report on financial technology urged bank regulators to finalize guidance relating to how banks manage their third party risk with fintechs. The nonbank financial firms could increase competition in the sector, if they're overseen correctly, the report said, but the lack of regulations compared to insured depository institutions "raises various public policy considerations." "Where new entrant nonbank firms are re-bundling core banking services outside the bank regulatory perimeter, there may be risks similar to those posed, for example, by the intermingling of commerce and banking," the Treasury Department said in the report, which is part of President Biden's competition executive order. "Some new entrant non-bank firms or their offerings may pose new or greater risks of reliability or fraud issues." The subject of bank-fintech partnerships has taken the attention of regulators recently, notably at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The acting OCC chair, Michael Hsu, has said that he's growing increasingly concerned about the growing complexity in business models that facilitate things like mobile payments, online lending and deposit-taking activities. Among a slate of recommendations, Treasury suggests that banking regulators finalize guidance on the risk management of third-party relationships. Under the guidance, banks are "ultimately accountable for managing the risks of its own third-party business arrangements." In cases where federal banking regulators don't have the purview to oversee bank-fintech relationships — such as when the fintech, rather than a bank, is providing a service to the consumer — the Treasury Department said that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau might need to step in. "In these instances, the fintech firm's activities may continue to be subject to federal and state consumer protection laws, but the supervision of those activities may not fall within the jurisdiction of the federal banking regulators," according to the report. "To help reduce regulatory gaps and maintain a level playing field, the CFPB and other federal agencies (HUD and FTC) may also need to act with respect to the activities of fintech firms and other non-banks that provide services critical to these business arrangements."

BanThink: Lawmakers should embrace an overhaul of financial regulation | American Banker - The economy was one of the defining issues of the midterm elections, with inflation and the rising cost of living topping the list of concerns for American voters.Now, a divided Washington faces the task of finding common ground to tackle these pocketbook challenges. Supporting an open and competitive economy should be a top priority, because a competitive marketplace means more choices and lower costs for consumers, businesses and the economy. Technology-driven financial services (or fintech) are breaking down barriers to financial services. More than eight in 10 American consumers use financial technology to manage their money, improve their financial well-being and access preferred financial services. Seventy-seven percent of consumers say fintech services made it easier to pay for their purchases and build better financial habits. Strong pluralities of users say fintech helps them understand their finances better and put money aside in savings. But Washington can help unleash even more consumer benefits by modernizing its approach to financial policy and regulation. Taking an affirmative, risk-based approach to regulation will help unleash the competitive benefits of financial technologies for more Americans, from the young person using an alternative payments platform to purchase items interest-free to the local coffee shop owner reaching new customers online or the daughter managing her elder parent's finances through budgeting apps. Other countries and regions are updating their regulatory frameworks to account for these developments, providing greater regulatory certainty to fintechs and increased consumer choice. Modernizing the U.S. financial regulatory framework to address fintech innovations will help ensure U.S. competitiveness from a global perspective. Pilots and sandboxes that carry the appropriate safe harbors could help facilitate policymakers' efforts to encourage and advance responsible innovation.Consumers' top reason for using fintech is to access their financial information in real time from anywhere, but payments are a crucial area needing modernized policy. Giving a broader set of firms, including financial technology companies, access to federal payment rails would help lower costs, drive competition and speed up payments for consumers. That can start by ensuring the leading payments companies can access infrastructure like FedNow, a real-time settlement service that the Federal Reserve is developing to facilitate instant payments 24 hours a day, every day.Innovations in artificial intelligence and machine learning are also bringing competition to financial services. The responsible use of AI/ML technologies helps lower costs, increase efficiency, expand fairness and enhance access to credit. But there is a need for clear guidelines to continue fostering the use of AI/ML, both for the companies using the technology and the regulators overseeing it.

CFPB asks Supreme Court to uphold constitutionality of its funding - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn an appellate ruling that declared the agency's funding structure unconstitutional. In a petition filed Monday, the CFPB challenged the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit's ruling on Community Financial Services Association of America v. CFPB, which said the funding of the agency through the Federal Reserve Board — an executive agency — and not congressional appropriations violates the Constitution's separation of powers doctrine. Many of the initiatives pursued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under Director Rohit Chopra could be undermined by the 5th Circuit ruling.Bloomberg The ruling, issued last month, dealt a significant blow to the CFPB's regulatory capabilities, potentially hampering its ability to enforce many of the consumer protection rules it has implemented during the past decade. The CFPB, which is being represented by U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth B. Prelogar in its Supreme Court bid, argued that its funding mechanism was established by Congress as part of the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. Because of this, the 5th Circuit's ruling is without precedent, the petition argues. "No other court has ever held that Congress violated the Appropriations Clause by passing a statute authorizing spending," the CFPB wrote. In CFSAA vs. CFPB, three justices on the 5th Circuit determined that the CFPB is "unique across the myriad independent executive agencies across the federal government" because "it is not funded with periodic congressional appropriations." In light of this, the judges determined that rules created by the agency using nonappropriated funds were crafted illegally. In the case at hand, the 5th Circuit determined that the CFPB's rules about the types of payday lending in which CFSAA was involved could not be enforced. The CFSAA could not immediately be reached for comment. The CFPB deferred comment on the case to the Justice Department and solicitor general's office, which did not respond to inquiries Tuesday afternoon.

Discover to resume buybacks following student loan servicing probe - Discover Financial Services is resuming its share buyback program after wrapping up a monthslong internal investigation into the company's servicing practices for private student loans. The $121 billion-asset consumer lender said that it may still be subject to regulatory actions, but analysts were optimistic after the company's announcement on Wednesday. "This is a positive development as it signals a coming resolution to the issue," Jefferies analyst John Hecht wrote in a note to clients, adding that he expects Discover to be "relatively aggressive in buying stock." Discover, which was forced to pay $35 million in 2020 under a student lending consent order, announced last July that it was pausing its share buybacks as it conducted an investigation into its servicing and compliance. The results of the investigation, conducted by a board-appointed independent panel, have not been made public. But in a securities filing on Wednesday, Discover said the investigation is complete and that executives have determined they can resume the buyback program. "The Company continues to communicate with the supervisory staff of its regulators regarding the internal investigation, and it may be subject to reviews, investigations, proceedings, or other actions in connection with its student loan servicing practices and related compliance matters," Discover said in the filing.

Climate stress tests underestimate risks, warns finance watchdog - Tools used by financial regulators to gauge the impact of climate change on the financial system are probably underestimating the potential damage because of incomplete data and inadequate scenario analyses, according to Financial Stability Board, a watchdog group. With extraordinary fires, floods and tornadoes on the rise, national authorities are increasingly conducting so-called climate scenario analysis exercises, testing how their financial systems might be hit by such events. But the field is a new one and the data is incomplete, according to a report jointly published by the Basel-based FSB and the Network for Greening the Financial System, a group of central banks and supervisors. Scenarios developed by NGFS are used by national authorities, though their application isn't identical because countries conduct stress tests differently. "Climate scenario analysis is becoming an increasingly important tool for central banks and regulators to identify and assess climate risks in their economies and financial systems," Ravi Menon, chair of the network, said in a statement. "The significance of these risks has been driven home by the global energy crisis unleashed by the war in Ukraine and the recent spate of extreme weather events." The initial results of these climate stress tests are incomplete, however, the report found. At first read, the exercises suggest that climate risks, "though not small," are nevertheless concentrated in some industries and can be contained, so they don't spread to the financial system. What the exercises generally fail to catch though are the ripple effects, for example if markets plunge as the worst-hit industries sell off assets at heavily discounted prices, the report said. Previous research has indicated that stranded assets may reach $20 trillion in just the energy and utilities sectors, which face the largest climate-transition challenges. More work globally needs to be done to collect and analyze data, improve the scenarios used and develop methods of calculating potential impacts, the organizations said.

Wall Street push against new rules gets boost from GOP House win -Republican control of the U.S. House of Representatives will help advance financial services firms' priorities, with a wish list that includes curbing ambitious proposals by a top markets regulator and diminishing the clout of a popular U.S. consumer watchdog. Next year, the GOP will lead the powerful Financial Services Committee, which can demand information from the heads of agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and seek to dial up oversight of the regulators. At minimum, the House's shift from Democratic leadership could force agency staff to spend hundreds of hours responding to lawmakers' requests, lobbyists and others said. With Democrats retaining their grip on the Senate and President Biden holding the "veto pen," Republicans will try to stall or curtail key administration goals. They include SEC proposals that would force hedge funds and private equity firms reveal more about their fees, and would require companies to make detailed environmental, social and governance disclosures. "The Biden administration has been pushing its agenda through financial regulators because they don't have the votes to pass it in Congress," said Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, who's poised to lead the Financial Services panel. "Committee Republicans will work together to conduct appropriate oversight of activist regulators and market participants who have an outsized impact." House Republicans will push hard against SEC proposals requiring greenhouse-gas emissions disclosures for publicly traded companies as well as environmental, social and governance disclosures by investment companies. They might target private-sector initiatives like the Nasdaq's rule requiring diversity on the boards of companies that trade on the stock exchange. Large banks and brokerages could be brought in to testify about whether their focus on ESG initiatives has hurt investors. Companies will also be asked if their regulators are pressuring them to do certain things, or are using regulation as cover to cut ties with disfavored industries, such as firearms or energy producers, said Brian Knight, senior research fellow at the libertarian-leaning Mercatus Center at George Mason University. "There's not going to be a lot of benefit of the doubt for anything that smacks of ESG." Still, any moves by lawmakers to cut SEC funding tied to ESG-related rules during the appropriations process would run into the veto threat. Republicans will use their clout in the House to publicly scrutinize regulators over plans to increase scrutiny of bank mergers. Yet on this issue and several others, the industry shouldn't set high expectations. "While exertion of more oversight authority could slightly change the focus of the various financial regulators, I don't know that a Republican majority in just one chamber would result in significant public policy changes for the financial firms themselves,' said Daniel Meade, a Washington-based partner at the law firm Cadwalader, Wickhersham & Taft. "The federal financial regulatory agencies are all generally independent agencies, and so a change in just one chamber probably would not result in a directional change at any of the agencies."

BankThink: Regulators, don't penalize local banks for their pandemic response | American Banker - With the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate hikes shrinking bond prices, uncoordinated regulatory standards are threatening the local community banks that have supported the government's pandemic response.While community banks have conservatively invested excess liquidity stemming from Americans' stimulus payments in the bond markets, federal regulators' inconsistent rules are endangering many community banks' ability to lend to local customers at a time of growing economic uncertainty.The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically affected community bank operations in several ways. These local financial institutions played a heroic role in facilitating the federal Paycheck Protection Program response to preserve small-business employment amid government-imposed shutdowns, followed federal guidelines restricting foreclosure proceedings and expanding loan forbearance, and took in a large influx of customer deposits due to emergency stimulus programs.During this period, the Federal Reserve maintained ultralow interest rates to help stave off an economic downturn. With few options to invest the excess liquidity on their balance sheets, the consistently prudent community banking sector took the safest and soundest action possible by parking much of their excess funds in low-risk U.S. Treasuries, agency mortgage-backed securities, and municipal securities.As many consumers are experiencing, the current economic and monetary landscape is starkly different. Amid consistently strong consumer spending and persistently high inflation, the Fed is hiking rates at a pace not seen in more than 40 years. These rate hikes — which the Fed continued at its latest monetary policy meeting — are sending bond prices tumbling. This inverse relationship is to be expected, with the market's move from fixed-rate bonds to higher-yield investments an economic certainty. But the sudden shift is nevertheless showing up on bank balance sheets.With bond prices falling, the excess liquidity that banks conservatively invested is now experiencing the most significant losses and worst year of performance in modern history. Fortunately for investors, these are "paper losses." Bond investors can ride out the interest rate storm while the bond market normalizes and values rebound on these conservative, tried-and-true investments. Unlike many other bond investors, however, community banks must contend with more rigid — and inconsistent — federal regulations.Federal banking regulators wisely don't require most banks to recognize these paper losses when they calculate how much capital they have on their books, but the nation's housing-finance regulator stands apart.While banking regulations dictate that banks do not need to recognize a loss until bonds are sold, the Federal Housing Finance Agency employs a "mark-to-market" accounting standard that requires banks to count losses that have not been realized in their capital calculations.

Wall Street's silencing of sexual harassment curbed by U.S. 'Speak Out Act' - A major hurdle for employees who want to speak out about workplace sexual harassment is poised to be removed — with significant ramifications across Wall Street, which has lagged behind the rest of corporate America in scaling back nondisclosure agreements. President Biden is expected to sign the so-called Speak Out Act after the bill was passed by the House on a 315-109 vote Wednesday and approved by the Senate in September. The new law will prohibit employers from enforcing nondisclosure agreements and nondisparagement clauses — often signed on the first day of employment, and sometimes unknowingly — that stop workers from discussing any incidents of sexual harassment or assault occurring months or years later.The new law could have a broad impact on Wall Street, where all but one of the six biggest U.S. banks are run by men, and issues of gender discrimination and inequality have proliferated for decades.Confidentiality agreements can still be found in employment contracts at boutique hedge funds, private equity firms, and other smaller finance firms, according to Wigdor partner David Gottlieb, who has represented workers at major banks. Companies such as Salesforce and Microsoft, meanwhile, have limited their employee agreements to make misconduct easier to report and more transparent."It is so inane that NDAs can be this vast," former Fox News anchor Gretchen Carlson, an early figure in the #MeToo movement, said in an interview. Her policy group, Lift Our Voices, backed the bill. "It's even hard to describe — you can't believe that all of these people are silenced on the first day."

White House taps Gruenberg for FDIC chair — The White House has said it will nominate Martin Gruenberg to serve as chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Gruenberg has been acting chairman of the agency since its former head Jelena McWilliams resigned in February. It's his third time atop the FDIC as part of a long career at the agency that spans decades, and would be his second stint as confirmed chairman if the Senate approves the pick. The Biden administration previously said they would nominate two Republicans to the their mandated board seats: Travis Hill, previously McWilliams' policy chief, as vice chair of the FDIC, and Jonathan McKernan, senior counsel at the Federal Housing Finance Agency who's been working with the Senate Banking Committee under ranking member Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., for a board slot. The move confused policy watchers, who noted that with Gruenberg unconfirmed, Hill would become acting chairman should the nomination go through without a pick for the accompanying chairmanship.

Deposit outflows are forcing some banks to play defense -A growing outflow of deposits is starting to cause headaches for some banks, forcing them to play defense in order to maintain enough cash to make loans. The quickly shifting picture — an effect of the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate increases — is prompting many banks to raise their deposit rates to prevent customers from leaving for higher-yielding alternatives. Some depositories are also filling in the gaps by turning to costlier options, such as the brokered deposit market or the Federal Home Loan Bank System, to fund their loans. The actions will take a bite out of banks' earnings in the coming months, raising their funding costs and limiting how much they can profit from the higher rates they're charging on loans. The current environment marks a sea change from what banks experienced for much of the pandemic — a deposit glut as consumers and businesses built up large cash buffers. Some banks have been more successful than others in keeping deposit costs down. But all of them are realizing that they can no longer sit still, and will instead have to fight to keep deposits, said Matt Pieniazek, president and CEO of Darling Consulting Group. That's because inflation has prompted the Fed to hike interest rates back to 2008 levels, which has led to interest rates on some investments, such as money market funds and Treasury securities, that are more attractive than lower-yielding deposits. With the Fed's benchmark rate at almost 4%, it will be "hard to tell your customer that they deserve" to get paid just above 0% for their savings, said Chris McGratty, head of U.S. banking research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Executives at banks large and small — ranging from the biggest in the country to the $12.3 billion-asset First Foundation Inc. in Dallas — have acknowledged in recent weeks that the deposit market has gotten more competitive or that it will soon heat up. "It's tough out there, and we recognize it's a dogfight," Scott Kavanaugh, CEO of First Foundation, said on an earnings call last month. First Foundation is one of several banks where the loan-to-deposit ratio climbed above 100% during the third quarter — as loans exhibited strong growth but deposits were mostly flat. Though the bank is planning to tap the brakes on loan growth, it is also fighting to attract new depositors and retain existing ones. And it is borrowing more from the Home Loan bank System.

Critics call Federal Home Loan Bank System 'corporate welfare' - Critics of the Federal Home Loan Bank System are claiming that the banking cooperative is receiving billions of dollars a year in corporate welfare while providing a negligible return to taxpayers in funding affordable housing programs. As the Federal Home Loan banks undergo the first review in nearly 100 years, more critics are suggesting that the 11 regional banks, created by Congress during the Great Depression, should have a mission more closely tied to solving the affordable housing crisis. Joshua Stallings, the deputy director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said at a panel discussion on Nov. 2 that the agency will be asking "big questions" about the appropriate role of the FHLB system in addressing affordability, community and economic development, and the needs of rural and vulnerable communities. No topic is off limits, Stallings told seven panelists earlier this month, as the FHFA examines the banks' mission, membership and congressional mandate. A panel discussion sponsored by the Federal Housing Finance Agency earlier this month on the future of the Federal Home Loan Bank system centered around the question of whether the private benefits of low-cost advances outweigh the public benefits of creating more affordable housing. Bloomberg News "No suggestions should be considered off the table, and we welcome bold ideas as well as recommendations that can be implemented in the near term," Stallings said. Chris Bosland, the FHFA's chief external risk officer, kicked off the panel discussion by asking what the experts think of the Home Loan banks' mission. The lively discussion that followed centered around whether the system as currently structured primarily benefits its 6,600 member-banks and insurance companies in what some described as "corporate welfare.". "The mission was never" for the Home Loan banks "to be a central bank for privately owned banks," said Cornelius Hurley, a lecturer at Boston University School of Law, who served 14 years on the board of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston. "It's nice to have a taxpayer-subsidized low-cost funding facility, that's very nice. But if we're going to have that, we need a substantial reward for our investment. Acting as a source of liquidity for private banks is a private benefit, it's not a public benefit." Hurley, who has become one of the system's harshest critics, dropped a bombshell on the panel by estimating that the system's members receive $5 billion a year in public subsidies in the form of a government guarantee on agency bonds. Hurley based the estimate on the Home Loan banks' current $1 trillion in outstanding debt with a 50-basis-point "benefit" attributed to the government guarantee. None of the other panelists disputed the $5 billion figure. The Home Loan banks are mandated to set aside 10% of their profits for affordable housing. Critics claim there is a mismatch between the banks' public subsidy and private benefits. Last year the banks provided $352 million for affordable housing in the form of grants and other programs. Hurley said the banks typically spend an average of $200 million a year on affordable housing programs. "The ratio of subsidy to benefit is 20-1," he said.

Mortgage market upheaval spurs $17 billion in paper losses for banks - Higher interest rates helped Wells Fargo land more than $3 billion in profit in the third quarter. From a capital perspective, they also wiped out nearly three-quarters of that. While rising rates buoy revenue for the country's largest banks, in the short term they also force them to write down the value of assets they hold on their balance sheet, exacerbating a capital squeeze that's prompted most of them to halt buybacks. At Wells Fargo, it was an additional $2.4 billion in unrealized losses on mortgage-backed securities and other bonds that weighed on shareholder equity in the third quarter. Wells Fargo's three biggest rivals took a similar hit. On mortgage-backed securities alone, the four banks' unrealized losses have climbed to $17 billion, based on company filings. "When it comes to managing capital, we should be extremely conscious of what the risks are that are around us," Wells Fargo Chief Executive Charlie Scharf warned last month, citing swings in the value of the bank's investment portfolio as well as geopolitical risks. "Those are all reasons, given where we sit today, to be more conservative on capital rather than less conservative." The unrealized losses don't appear on the firms' income statement, but under accounting rules they still end up hitting the banks' balance sheets, affecting so-called accumulated other comprehensive income, or AOCI. There, the country's four largest banks — JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo — reported a $16 billion drop in AOCI for the third quarter, to negative $102 billion, company filings show. Because swings in AOCI affect shareholder equity, the drop in AOCI has weighed on key capital ratios. The writedowns come at a tough time for banks, which are trying to hoard capital to meet new, higher regulatory requirements. They're just one of a bevy of headwinds weighing on capital ratios. Others include new accounting rules that say banks must set aside even more in reserves as a result of rising inflation that's threatening the overall economic outlook. And with markets on edge over the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, banks have also been battling back an increase in risk-weighted assets, which are used to determine minimum capital levels.

Mortgage bankers record largest average loss since 2008 -The average mortgage banker's bottom line slipped further into the red than it's been since the Great Recession during the third quarter, as rates rose further, exerting more pressure on lending.Companies generally took a loss of $624 per loan, or 20 basis points, during the quarter. This compared to a loss of $82 or 5 basis points in the second quarter and brought industry earnings to their lowest point since 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That stands in stark contrast to a year ago, when the average independent mortgage banker generated $2,954 or 89 basis points of profit.Marina Walsh, MBA's vice president of industry analysis, called the latest quarter's results "sobering news," given that the third quarter is generally the strongest of the year for the industry."The industry continues to struggle with a perfect storm of lower production volume and revenues and escalating production costs, which for the first time exceed $11,000 per loan," Walsh said in a press release.Total production revenue fell on a consecutive-quarter basis and when compared to a year earlier at 326 basis points in the third quarter. It was 335 in the previous fiscal period and 396 between July and September last year. Expressed in dollars per loan, the equivalent figures were $10,392, $10,855 and $11,734, respectively. The MBA includes fee income, net income from secondary marketing and the spread on warehouse financing that mortgage bankers obtain from other companies to fund their loans in this figure.Net income from secondary marketing was 223 basis points during the third quarter, compared to 243 in the second and 310 a year earlier. Expressed in dollars per loan, mortgage bankers received $7,165 in net income from secondary marketing in the third quarter, compared to $7,939 in the second and $9,300 a year ago.Thanks to low prepayments and delinquencies, the key determinant of which mortgage bankers remained profitable in the third quarter has been servicing, MBA found. Nearly half, or 46%, of all companies were profitable in the third quarter, down from 57% in the second. Without servicing, just 25% of mortgage bankers would have been profitable, according to the MBA. Cyclically, servicing generally tends to perform better when rates are rising and production volumes gain the upper hand when they fall.Net financial income from servicing was slightly lower than the previous quarter but higher than a year ago at $102 per loan, compared to $133 and $37, respectively.Operating income from servicing also was down from the previous quarter but up from a year earlier at $95, compared to $97 and $88, respectively. Amortization of mortgage servicing rights and gains or losses in the valuations of MSRs, net of the same from hedging, are excluded from operating income. The association also excludes gains or losses from bulk sales of MSRs from this figure.

Some homebuyers lose deposits of $10,000, $20,000, or more due to high mortgage rates : NPR - Dahianara Lopez and her husband Paulo Echeverry run a food truck outside of Orlando. "We work together every day," she says while cooking up Colombian sausages on the truck's big stainless steel grill. They say by putting in long hours over several years they were able to save up a down payment for a house. "We think that renting is like we are wasting money, you know?" says Lopez. "So we want to to buy a house, to have something that that we can say is mine." Late last year, they signed a contract to buy a new home before it was built for about $500,000 and put down a $25,000 deposit. But since then mortgage rates have seen their biggest increase in 40 years, from 3% to around 7%. Pandemic delays have resulted in many new homes taking a year or longer to get built. So now it's much harder for thousands of people like Echeverry and Lopez to be able to afford the new homes they agreed to buy. In their case, the higher rates would add about $1,100 a month to their mortgage payment. The couple has been very scared that they won't qualify for a mortgage anymore and will lose that big deposit. "The sales guy, he always tells us we're going to lose the deposit if we don't buy the house," Echeverry said when the couple first spoke to NPR. "Even the area sales manager... she told me, too, that we're going to lose our money." Some people have already lost their money. Karen Jensen works as a school nurse at an elementary school in Tigard, Ore. She and her husband wanted a bigger house for them and their three kids. "We put just a little over $15,000 down as a deposit," she says. But after interest rates jumped so much higher they decided to back out of buying it, and she says the builder kept their deposit. At first she felt sad but okay about that. They signed the contract and put the money down after all.

Mortgage rates drop by largest amount in 41 years - Mortgage rates plunged by nearly a half-percent this week, marking the largest week-over-week decline since November 1981. The rate on the average 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.61% from 7.08% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac, which this week changed its methodology calculating rates. The drop follows a sharp decline in the yield on the 10-year Treasury last week after a government showed inflation cooled last month. The sudden decrease gave price-strained homebuyers and sellers still in the market an inkling of relief, boosting activity in the otherwise sluggish market. "The drop in rates incentivized buyers to rush and try to lock rates this weekend, the difference in demand was significant,” Adriana Perezchica, president of Via Real Estate, told Yahoo Money. “Until recently, buyer demand had weakened as borrowers have had a hard time keeping up with higher rates and home prices. We don’t know how long this dip in rates will last…and buyers are absolutely racing to lock a rate." This week’s results also debuts Freddie Mac’s revised methodology, which now collects real-time rates based on loan applications submitted to its automated underwriting system. The new approach has an average difference of less than 10 basis points.

Mortgage rates plunge to 6.61% amid signs of easing inflation - Mortgage rates dropped sharply last week following a series of economic reports that indicated inflation may finally be easing. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.61% in the week ending November 17, down from 7.08% the week before, according to Freddie Mac, the largest weekly drop since 1981. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate stood at 3.10%. Mortgage rates have risen throughout most of 2022, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates in order to tame soaring inflation. In the last week, two key inflation reports – the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index – showed that prices rose at a slower pace than expected in October, suggesting inflation is inching in the right direction, and has perhaps even peaked. “While the decline in mortgage rates is welcome news, there is still a long road ahead for the housing market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates high and consumers will continue to feel the impact.” The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey only includes borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. But many buyers who put down less money upfront or have less than perfect credit will pay more than the average rate. Investors saw last week’s lower-than-expected CPI data as an indication that the Federal Reserve may make smaller interest rate hikes in the months ahead, said George Ratiu, Realtor.com’s manager of economic research. While the Fed does not set the interest rates borrowers pay on mortgages directly, its actions influence them. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. As investors see or anticipate rate hikes, they make moves which send yields higher and mortgage rates rise. “The 10-year Treasury dropped from 4.15% last Wednesday to 3.68%, as capital markets seemed to cheer the slowdown in inflation as a sign that the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening is having its intended effect,

Sharp drop in mortgage rates does little to boost demand -Mortgage application volume rose 2.7% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. An additional adjustment was made for the Veteran's Day holiday. The small increase followed a government report last week showing that inflation may be starting to ease. That, in turn, sent bond yields plunging and mortgage rates with them. Thursday saw the sharpest one-day drop in the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage since daily record-keeping began in 2009. On a weekly average, the rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 6.9% from 7.14%, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.77 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. On a daily basis, the rate on Thursday alone dropped 60 basis points, according to a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 2% for the week and were 88% lower than the same week one year ago. The rate drop came toward the end of the week, and Friday was a federal holiday, Veteran's Day, so it is possible refinance demand has yet to react fully to the rate drop. Mortgage applications to purchase a home, which don't generally react quickly to interest rate changes, increased 4% for the week and were 46% lower than the same week one year ago. "Purchase applications increased for all loan types, and the average purchase loan dipped to its smallest amount since January 2021," said Joel Kan, a Mortgage Bankers Association economist. Loan sizes may be falling too due falling home prices or potentially more first-time buyers getting into the market again at the entry level. Mortgage rates did not move much to start this week, but the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury dropped Tuesday, first in the morning after a monthly read on U.S. producer prices increased at a slightly slower pace than expected. They fell further later, hitting a nearly six-week low, after news broke that missiles hit Poland, killing two people. That sparked fears of greater political risk in the already war-torn region. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 11, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Veterans Day.... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 88 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week and was 46 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates decreased last week as signs of slower inflation pushed Treasury yields lower. The 30- year fixed rate saw the largest single-week decline since July 2022, dropping to 6.9 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity, adjusted to account for the Veterans Day holiday, increased in response to the drop in rates – driven by a 4 percent rise in home purchase applications. Purchase applications increased for all loan types, and the average purchase loan dipped to its smallest amount since January 2021. Refinance activity remained depressed, down 88 percent over the year. There is very little refinance incentive with rates so much higher than last year.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 6.90 percent from 7.14 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.77 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loansThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year.The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 46% year-over-year unadjusted.The purchase index is 7% below the pandemic low and just up from the lowest level since 2015.

CFPB eyes discrimination in tenant screening -- Incidents of inaccurate, outdated and misleading information in tenant background reports are on the rise, according to a pair of reports from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The CFPB analyzed publicly available data on 17 tenant background check companies in one report and roughly 26,700 consumer complaints in the other. The two reports were released Tuesday morning. The agency found that background check companies have prioritized speed and ease of use for landlords — particularly real estate investment trusts, private equity firms and other corporations that more than tripled their share of the rental housing market between 2001 and 2018 — over accuracy and service to prospective tenants. Collectively, these issues are making it harder for renters to secure homes at a time when housing availability is already limited and becoming increasingly expensive, the reports found. "When a company produces a tenant background check report that is riddled with errors, it can cause serious harm to a family seeking housing," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a written statement. "These background reports are heavily used by corporate landlords that own an increasing share of rental housing in our country, so we are taking steps to ensure these reports do not contain false information." The CFPB did not mention any legal action or regulatory reform in its reports, but it said it would keep a close eye on the tenant background reporting industry. The agency also promised to work closely with the Federal Trade Commission to hold bad actors in the space accountable. "FTC enforcement investigations have identified serious problems with tenant background check reports," Samuel Levine, Director of the FTC's Bureau of Consumer Protection, said in a written statement. "We will continue to work with the CFPB to ensure that firms compiling these reports are following the law." Between January 2019 and September 2022, the average volume of complaints filed with the CFPB about tenant background checks increased from 300 a month to nearly 700 a month. The vast majority of complaints were about the inclusion of inaccurate information, ranging from outdated information that should be omitted by law to inaccurate criminal and eviction records. One of the most common errors in tenant background reports is the inclusion of negative information that belongs to someone else with the same name, one report found, the result of screening companies using name-only matching, rather than including Social Security numbers and other identifying information. This issue tends to be more common among Hispanic, Asian and Black communities than their white counterparts. The CFPB found that many prospective renters had a hard time accessing their background reports, despite the fact that their application fees typically cover the costs associated with completing the screening. Many companies do not share adverse action notices with tenants, the CFPB noted, which is illegal.

 NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.43 million SAAR in October - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slumped 5.9% in October - Existing-home sales retreated for the ninth straight month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year declines.Total existing-home sales - completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – decreased 5.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October. Year-over-year, sales dropped by 28.4% (down from 6.19 million in October 2021)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of October was 1.22 million units, which was down 0.8% from both September and one year ago (1.23 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.1 months in September and 2.4 months in October 2021. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in October (4.43million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 28.4% below the October 2021 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.22 million in October from 1.23 million in September.Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was essentially unchanged year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2021.Months of supply (red) increased to 3.3 months in October from 3.1 months in September. This was slightly above the consensus forecast.

Home Sales Plunge, Investors Pull Back Too, Prices Drop 8.4% in 4 Months, Active Listings & Price Cuts Rise Further by Wolf Richter – Sales of all types of previously owned homes – houses, condos, and co-ops – fell by 5.9% in October from September, the ninth month in a row of declines, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.43 million homes, just a hair above the lockdown-month of April 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors. Compared to the recent free-money peak in October 2020, sales were down 34%. Year-over-year, sales fell by 28%, the 15th month in a row of year-over-year declines. Beyond April and May 2020, this was the lowest rate of sales since December 2011 (historic data via YCharts):Sales of single-family houses plunged by 6.4% in October from September, and by 28% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million houses. Sales of condos and co-ops fell by 2.0% in October from September, and by 30% year-over-year, to 480,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. Investors or second home buyers purchased 16% of the homes in October, down from the 17%-22% range in the spring and winter. In other words, their purchases plunged at an even higher rate than the purchases of regular buyers, as investors too are losing interest in buying at these prices. This plunge in sales is a sign that potential sellers and buyers are in a standoff. Many potential sellers refuse to accept reality and lower their prices to where the sellers are; instead, they’re thinking, “and this too shall pass,” and they’re hoping or praying for a Fed pivot or for a miracle or whatever and don’t even put their home on the market, or pull it off the market after not getting any traffic at their aspirational asking price. And buyers have lost interest at the current prices. Homes that are priced right – meaning priced down where the buyers are – are selling. But sellers don’t like to go there. And we see that in the active listings too. But there is some price-cutting going on, as more sellers figure this out. Price reductions: In October, the number of homes listed with price reductions rose to 327,184 homes, the highest since October 2019, and just a tad below it (data via realtor.com). But the proportion of active listings with price reductions has exceed 40% for the past five months, by far the highest in the data that realtor.com makes available, which goes back to 2016:

Single-Family Construction Starts Plunge as Homebuilders Drown in Inventory. But Multifamily Construction at 36-Year High – Wolf Richter - Construction starts of single-family houses have been dropping all year as homebuilders are trying to unload a huge pile of inventory while sales have plunged and foot traffic to view new properties has collapsed. In October, single-family construction starts dropped further. Construction starts of multifamily projects – condo and apartment buildings – continue at the highest levels since the multifamily boom in the 1980s. Combined, construction starts of all types of privately owned housing units fell by 4.2% in October from September, and by 8.8% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.42 million housing units, according to the Census Bureau today. During the period from 2000 through 2020, the number of households increased by 1.17 million per year on average, topped off by a decline in 2020 (purple line). It sheds some light on the so-called “housing shortage” and “underbuilding.” But this equation doesn’t take into account housing units that are being used for non-housing purposes, such as vacant properties that are held off the market by their owners to ride up the price-spike all the way; and such as housing units being used as short-term vacation rentals. The plunge in single-family construction: Construction starts of single-family houses plunged by 6.1% in October from September, and by 21% from a year ago, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 855,000 houses. Since the free-money-fueled peak in December 2020, construction starts of single-family houses have plunged by 35%. But even the peak remains far below the Housing Bubble 1 peak in 2005, infamous for rampant overbuilding and the subsequent collapse of the industry. Inventories of houses in various stages of construction have been piling up in massive numbers and in September, at 462,000 properties, reached the highest level since early 2008, according to separate data from the Census Bureau released last month. Mortgage rates have returned to the normal-ish levels before QE, but house prices have not, and that’s a toxic mix, and it killed demand. Construction starts of multifamily buildings of five or more units, such as condo and apartment buildings, dipped just a tad in October from September, but surged by 17.3% from a year ago, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 556,000 units. In many densely populated cities and urban cores, multifamily is just about the only type of housing that is getting built, such as in San Francisco, Boston, Manhattan, etc., while single-family construction takes place further away from urban cores. These initial estimates of multifamily construction starts are volatile from month to month. To show the long-term trends, I converted the monthly data into three-month moving averages (3MMA), which rose to the highest level since 1986. The current rate of construction starts is up by over 50% from the middle of the range in 2000-2008; and it’s up around 40% from the middle of the range in 2015 through 2019:

 October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,425,000. This is 4.2 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,488,000 and is 8.8 percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,563,000. Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 855,000; this is 6.1 percent below the revised September figure of 911,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 556,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,526,000. This is 2.4 percent below the revised September rate of 1,564,000 and is 10.1 percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,698,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 839,000; this is 3.6 percent below the revised September figure of 870,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 633,000 in October.The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in October compared to September. Multi-family starts were up 17.8% year-over-year in October. Single-family starts (red) decreased in October and were down 20.8% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968. Total housing starts in October were above expectations, however, starts in August and September were revised down slightly, combined.The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2021 (blue) and 2022 (red). Total starts were down 8.8% in October compared to October 2021. Total starts, year-to-date, are up 0.2% compared to the same period in 2021. However, starts have been down year-over-year for six consecutive months, and the comparisons will be very difficult in November and December (starts were strong at the end of 2021).Housing starts will end the year down compared to 2021.The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).Red is single family units. Currently there are 794 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This is below the previous six months, and 36 thousand below the recent peak in April and May. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts are now declining. The reason there are so many homes under construction is probably due to supply constraints.Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 928 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since December 1973! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Combined, there are 1.722 million units under construction. This is the all-time record number of units under construction.Below is a graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12-month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.

AIA: Architecture Billings Index "decreases considerably" in October - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Demand for design services decreases considerably: Demand for design services from architecture firms softened considerably in October, according to a new report from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7, the first decline in billings since January 2021 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings). Inquiries into new projects continued to grow in October with a score of 52.3, while the value of new design contracts declined, with a score of 48.6. “Economic headwinds have been steadily mounting, and finally led to weakening demand for new projects,” . “Firm backlogs are healthy and will hopefully provide healthy levels of design activity against fewer new projects entering the pipeline should this weakness persist.”
• Regional averages: Midwest (50.8); South (50.6); Northeast (50.3); West (49.6)
• Sector index breakdown: institutional (54.3); mixed practice (50.8); multi-family residential (46.1); commercial/industrial (45.9)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.7 in October, down from 51.7 in September. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index had been positive for 20 consecutive months. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a pickup in CRE investment in early 2023, but if the weakness persists - a slowdown in CRE investment later in 2023. Note that multi-family billing turned down in September and declined again in October, and if that continues, we will see a downturn in multi-family starts sometime in 2023.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased Further in November - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 33, down from 35 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines for 11 Consecutive Months as Housing Weakness Continues: Elevated interest rates, stubbornly high building material costs and declining affordability conditions that are pushing more buyers to the sidelines continue to drag down builder sentiment.Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes posted its 11th straight monthly decline in November, dropping five points to 33, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the lowest confidence reading since June 2012, with the exception of the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.“Higher interest rates have significantly weakened demand for new homes as buyer traffic is becoming increasingly scarce,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “With the housing sector in a recession, the Biden administration and new Congress must turn their focus to policies that lower the cost of building and allow the nation’s home builders to expand housing production.” To bring more buyers into the marketplace, 59% of builders report using incentives, with a big increase in usage from September to November. For example, in November, 25% of builders say they are paying points for buyers, up from 13% in September. Mortgage rate buy-downs rose from 19% to 27% over the same time frame. And 37% of builders cut prices in November, up from 26% in September, with an average price of reduction of 6%. This is still far below the 10%-12% price cuts seen during the Great Recession in 2008.”...All three HMI components posted declines in November. Current sales conditions fell six points to 39, sales expectations in the next six months declined four points to 31 and traffic of prospective buyers fell five points to 20.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell six points to 41, the Midwest dropped two points to 38, the South fell seven points to 42 and the West posted a five-point decline to 29. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.This was below the consensus forecast, and the lowest level since 2012 (excluding the two-month drop at the beginning of the pandemic). The "traffic of prospective buyers" is now well below breakeven at 20 (below 50).

CoreLogic: Annual Single-Family Rent Growth Decelerates -From CoreLogic: Annual Single-Family Rent Growth Decelerates for Fifth Consecutive Month and Seasonal Patterns Return -Consistent evidence of a single-family rental market cooldown follows nearly two years of above-trend rental price hikes. Single-family rent growth in September 2022 slowed for the fifth consecutive month to 10.2% from a high of 13.9% in April 2022. Additionally, rent growth this September was slightly below that of September 2021. The rent increase slowdown comes as inflation stretches tenants’ pocketbooks.“Annual single-family rent growth decelerated for the fifth consecutive month in September but remained at more than twice the pre-pandemic growth rate,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic. “High mortgage interest rates may be causing potential homebuyers to hit pause and remain renters, keeping pressure on rent prices. However, the monthly rent change was negative in September, resuming the typical seasonal pattern for the first time since 2019, which could signal the beginning of rent price growth normalization.”This graph from CoreLogic shows the YoY change in single-family rents.Year-over-year rent growth slowed to 10.2% in September - and the month-over-month change was negative in September.

Lawler: Are US Rents Falling? - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Are US Rents Falling? - A brief excerpt: After increasing at a pace unseen in US history from the Spring of 2021 to the middle of 2022, it appears as if US rent growth has slowed sharply over the past few months. Indeed, the most “high frequency” data (meaning most timely) suggest that US rents may have stopped increasing this Fall, and may actually have begun to decline....Below is a table showing the monthly % changes in these rent indexes NOT adjusted for seasonal fluctuations. CR Note: The CoreLogic index was negative in September (released this morning).Note that the Apartment List Index, which is not smoothed, has shown two consecutive monthly declines, while the Zillow Index, which IS smoothed, fell for the [first] time in over two years last month. Note also that the CoreLogic Index, available only through August and which is smoothed, decelerated sharply during “August.”The above table can be a bit misleading, however, because all three rent indexes display relatively modest but statistically significant seasonal fluctuations ...While none of these rent indexes is perfect, the latest data suggest that US rent growth has slowed sharply in recent months, and at best has been growing in the low single digits andquite possibly may have actually turned slightly negative last month. If so, that is certainly no surprise, and as I said in an earlier report, I expect that US rents in 2023 will be lower than rents during this Summer and Fall. There is much more in the article.

‘NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increases, Delinquencies "very low" -From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Reaches $16.51 trillion in Q3 2022; Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Decline The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued itsQuarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the third quarter of 2022, increasing by $351 billion (2.2%) to $16.51 trillion. Balances now stand $2.36 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic recession. The report is based on data from the New York Fed's nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. Mortgage balances rose by $282 billion in the third quarter of 2022 and stood at $11.67 trillion at the end of September, representing a $1 trillion increase from the previous year. Credit card balances also increased by $38 billion. The 15% year-over-year increase in credit card balances represents the largest in more than 20 years. Auto loan balances increased by $22 billion in the third quarter, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011. Student loan balances slightly declined and now stand at $1.57 trillion. In total, non-housing balances grew by $66 billion.Mortgage originations, which include refinances, stood at $633 billion in the third quarter, representing a $126 billion decline from the second quarter and a return to pre-pandemic volumes. The volume of newly originated auto loans was $185 billion, a slight reduction from the previous quarter but still elevated compared to the average volumes seen through the 2018-2019 period. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $82 billion and now stand at $4.3 trillion. "Credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances continued to increase in the third quarter of 2022 reflecting a combination of robust consumer demand and higher prices," said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. "However, new mortgage originations have slowed to pre-pandemic levels amid rising interest rates." Here are three graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q3. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a huge decline in debt during the pandemic. From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances increased by $351 billion in the third quarter of 2022, a 2.2% rise from 2022Q2. Balances now stand at $16.51 trillion and have increased by $2.36 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.The overall delinquency rate was unchanged in Q3. From the NY Fed:Aggregate delinquency rates were unchanged in the third quarter of 2022 and remained very low, after declining sharply through the beginning of the pandemic. As of September, 2.7% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 2.1 percentage point decrease from the last quarter of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United StatesThe third graph shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score. From the NY Fed: Mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports, declined to $633 billion in 2022Q3, ending the period of high volumes of origination through the pandemic. ... The median credit score of newly originated mortgages declined again, to 768, down from a series high in 2021Q1 of 788 and returning to pre-covid levels which remain very high and reflect continuing high lending standards.There is much more in the report.

Credit Card Balances, Burden, Delinquencies & Collections in Q3: Consumers Still in Great Shape with their Cards- by Wolf Richter - Credit card balances include balances that accrue interest and balances that are paid in full at due date so that no interest accrues. Many Americans use credit cards purely as a payment method (and to collect the 1.5% cash-back or whatever), and not as a borrowing method. So credit card balances are much more a measure of spending, than of borrowing. Fitch estimated that the total amount paid with credit cards in the US reached $4.6 trillion in 2021. Only a tiny amount of the spending wasn’t paid off in full and added to the interest-bearing debt. In the third quarter, credit card balances rose by $38 billion from the prior quarter, to $930 billion, according to the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report. This $930 billion includes transactions incurred roughly in September but paid off in full in October, that are not accruing interest. Credit card spending has been boosted by the resurgence in traveling, with credit cards being used as payment method for hotels, airline tickets, rental cars, meals, etc. Surging costs further drive up the amounts that flow through credit cards. But card holders paid off in full nearly all of the new amounts that were paid for by credit card during the quarter. Household have a lot of debt, but the problem isn’t credit cards, it’s mortgages. In a moment, we’ll look at credit card balances as percent of total consumer debt and as percent of disposable income, and we’ll look at delinquencies and third-party collections, and we’ll see that the burden of revolving-credit is now just a small fraction of what it was in prior years and decades, and that delinquencies started to tick up, but are still below pre-pandemic lows, and that third-party collections dropped to new record lows. During the pandemic, the plunge in bookings for airline tickets, hotels, entertainment and sports venues, restaurant meals etc., caused the use of credit cards as payment method to decline, and that’s where the big trough occurred; it shows the collapse in spending on services. This is now returning back to normal as spending on services is recovering. And yet, credit card balances outstanding in Q3 only grew by $43 billion, which shows the universal use of credit cards as payment method, with balances paid off in full every month, and to what small extent credit cards are used as borrowing method. And that makes sense because borrowing on a credit card can be ridiculously expensive, with rates as high as 30%, but paying with a credit card can earn you a kickback. “Other” consumer loans, such as personal loans, payday loans, and Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) loans, rose by $21 billion, to $490 billion in Q3. Most of them are interest bearing, but not all: For example, BNPL loans may be subsidized by the retailer. These loan balances are now back where they’d been in 2003, despite 19 years of population growth, income growth, and rampant inflation. What’s amazing, actually, is how low these balances are after 20 years of population growth, income growth, and inflation:

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls About 9% in November - The November Preliminary Report came in at 54.7, down 5.2 (8.7%) from the October Final. Investing.com had forecast 59.9. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 36 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 35.2 percent below the geometric mean.Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments:Consumer sentiment fell about 9% below October, erasing about half of the gains that had been recorded since the historic low in June. All components of the index declined from last month, but buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 21% on the basis of high interest rates as well as continued high prices. Overall, declines in sentiment were observed across the distribution of age, education, income, geography, and political affiliation, showing that the recent improvements in sentiment were tentative. Instability in sentiment is likely to continue, a reflection of uncertainty over both global factors and the eventual outcomes of the election.Inflation expectations are little changed. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.1%, up from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months. [More...] See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.

Retail Sales Increased 1.3% in October - On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 1.3% from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.3 percent from October 2021. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $694.5 billion,up 1.3 percent from the previous month, and 8.3 percent above October 2021. ... The August 2022 to September 2022 percent change was unrevised from virtually unchanged.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 1.0% in October.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 7.4% on a YoY basis. Sales in October were above expectations, moreover sales in August and September were revised up, combined.

 US Retail Sales Soar In October; Gasoline Sales Spike - Analysts expected a strong bump in retail sales in October (+1.0% MoM) with BofA expecting an even stronger surge thanks to California's stimmy checks.BofA was right but even they under-estimated the gains as Retail sales rose 1.3% MoM - the biggest jump since February 2022... Core retail sales data also outperformed (Ex-Autos +1.3% MoM v +0.5% exp) and Ex-Autos and Gas +0.9% (v +0.2% exp). Electronics and appliance stores saw sales slow, but Gasoline, Autos, and Food sales surged... Finally, while not comparing apples to apples directly, adjusting the nominal value of retail sales for CPI gives us a better idea of just how strong the American consumers' spending demand is up 0.87% MoM (the biggest jump since January)...The 4.1% surge in gasoline sales is intriguing given that we have seen volume demand sinking significantly so we would not be getting too excited about this print as a representation of a 'strong consumer' too soon... especially given the impact of California's stimmy checks.

No Landing Yet, Soft or Otherwise? Retail Sales Hit it out of the Ballpark, But Not All Retailers: By Retailer Category - by Wolf Richter -Retail sales, reported today by the Commerce Department, are based on retailers’ revenues, obtained by survey of about 5,500 retail locations, so from the company’s point of view, and not “consumer spending” from the consumer’s point of view, which we’ll get later this month. These revenues show that retailers knocked it out of the ballpark in October, especially online retailers and restaurants, as customers were buying hand-over-fist. And it wasn’t inflation.Inflation has abated for many goods, which is what retailers sell, and shifted to services, which retailers don’t sell. On a month-to-month basis, the CPI for durable goods fell for the second month in a row (-0.7% in October); the CPI for food at home (bought at food and beverage stores which we’ll get to in a moment) rose month-to-month at a slower rate (0.4%) than the spikes in prior months. But the CPI for gasoline rose 4%.Total retail sales jumped by 1.3% in October from September, and by 8.3% year-over-year, to $695 billion, seasonally adjusted. Compared to October 2019, retail sales were up 34%. Sales by category of retailer, largest to smallest:

• New and Used Vehicle and Parts Dealers: Sales rose 1.3% for the month and by 5.2% year-over-year, to $129 billion, up by 25% from three years ago. This is the largest category of retailers. The sales increase occurred as the CPI for used vehicles fell month to month, while the CPI for new vehicles still rose, though at a slower pace than before.New vehicle inventories overall are still woefully low: they’re largely depleted of fuel efficient vehicles, though inventories of full-size trucks and SUVs are now building up, as demand has shifted following the spike in gasoline prices that started in 2021. Overall sales are still constrained by shortages of vehicles that are in demand.
• Ecommerce and “nonstore retailers”: sales rose 1.2% for the month, and by 11.5% year-over-year to a record of $112 billion, seasonally adjusted, up by a mind-boggling 73% from three years ago, as the shift in retail sales from brick-and-mortar stores to online operations continued. This is the second largest category of retailers.Sales by the ecommerce operations of brick-and-mortar retailers are included here, along with sales at stalls and markets:
• Food services and drinking places: Sales rose by 1.6% for the month (against CPI of food away from home +0.9%), and by 14.1% year-over-year (CPI +8.6%), to a record $90 billion. Compared to October 2019, sales were up 36%. People are thronging to restaurants like never before.Restaurant sales have boomed so fast that this category has surpassed food and beverage store sales, making it the third-largest category — Americans really do eat out a lot. And here too, revenues are easily outrunning even the raging CPI inflation for food away from home.
• Food and Beverage Stores: Sales rose 1.4% for the month (against CPI of food at home +0.6%) and by 7.6% year-over-year (CPI +10.9%), to a record $81 billion. Compared to October 2019, sales jumped by 26%:

Heavy Truck Sales Up 13% Year-over-year -The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for October earlier. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the October 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 499 thousand SAAR in October, up from 475 thousand in September, and up from 438 thousand SAAR in October 2021. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Sales were solid in October.

 Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases Wholesale prices increased less than expected in October, adding to hopes that inflation is on the wane, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The produce price index, a measure of the prices that companies get for finished goods in the marketplace, rose 0.2% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimates for a 0.4% increase. Stock futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up more than 400 points shortly after the release, reflecting market anticipation that cost of living increases not seen since the early 1980s were easing if not receding. However, market gains tapered through the day, with the Dow up just over 100 points late in the session. On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 8% compared to an 8.4% increase in September and off the all-time peak of 11.7% hit in March. The monthly increase equaled September's gain of 0.2%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index also rose 0.2% on the month and 5.4% on the year. Excluding just food and energy, the index was flat on the month and up 6.7% on the year. "The PPI read certainly adds more fuel to the fire for those who feel we may finally be on a downward inflation trend," said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Office. One significant contributor to the slowdown in inflation was a 0.1% decline in the services component of the index. That marked the first outright decline in that measure since November 2020. Final demand prices for goods rose 0.6%, the biggest gain since June an traceable primarily to the rebound in energy, which saw a 5.7% jump in gasoline. The deceleration came despite a 2.7% increase in energy costs and a 0.5% increase in food. Inflation has soared during the pandemic era as supply chains could not keep with overheated demand for long-lasting big-ticket items, particularly those dependent on semiconductors. Economists generally expect that inflation has at least plateaued, though there are plenty of risks on the horizon, including a potential rail strike that could apply new pressure to supply chains. The producer index is generally considered a good leading indicator for inflation as it gauges pipeline prices that eventually work their way into the marketplace. PPI differs from the more widely followed consumer price index as the former measures the prices that producers receive at the wholesale level while CPI reflects what consumers actually pay. Hopes that inflation is at least slowing spiked last week when the CPI showed a monthly gain of 0.4%, lower than the 0.6% estimate. The 7.7% annual gain was a deceleration from a 41-year peak of 9% in June. Markets also soared following Thursday's CPI release. Federal Reserve officials have been raising interest rates in hopes of bringing down inflation. The central bank has hiked its benchmark borrowing rate six times year for a total of 3.75 percentage points, its highest level in 14 years. Markets on Tuesday afternoon were pricing in about an 80% chance that the Fed would downshift in rate hikes in December, with a 0.5 percentage point increase after four straight 0.75 percentage point moves. Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday she expects the pace of hikes soon will slow, through rates are likely to still go higher. She said the Fed can move to a more "deliberate" posture as it watches the impact of its rate hikes. In other economic news Tuesday, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for November registered a reading of 4.5%, an increase of 14 percentage points on a monthly basis and much better than the estimate for a -6% reading. The index measures the difference between companies reporting expansion vs. contraction. However, both the prices paid and received components saw increases, rising 1.9 points and 4.3 points respectively.

LA Port Traffic Down Sharply in October - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 2.2% in October compared to the rolling 12 months ending in September. Outbound traffic decreased 0.4% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were down 26% YoY in October, and exports were down 5% YoY. It is possible that exports have bottomed after declining for several years (even prior to the pandemic).

Industrial Production Decreased 0.1 Percent in October - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in October, and its gain in September was revised down to 0.1 percent. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in October, and its increases in July, August, and September were all lower than previously reported. In October, the index for mining stepped down 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities fell 1.5 percent. At 104.7 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in October was 3.3 percent above its year-earlier reading. Capacity utilization decreased 0.2 percentage point in October to 79.9 percent, a rate that is 0.3 percentage point above its long-run (1972–2021) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).Capacity utilization at 79.9% is 0.3% above the average from 1972 to 2021. This was below consensus expectations.The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production decreased in October to 104.7. This is above the pre-pandemic level.The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.

Amazon To Fire 10,000 Employees, Largest Layoff In Company History -- Over the past month, technology companies have laid off tens of thousands of employees. And the momentum in layoffs only appears to be worsening. According to a new report via NYTimes this morning, Amazon could add to the count this week as approximately 10,000 people in corporate and technology jobs will be slashed, in what could be the most significant job cut in the company's history. People with direct knowledge of the layoff plan said job cuts would be focused on Amazon's devices organization, including the voice-assistant Alexa, its retail division, and human resources."The total number of layoffs remains fluid. But if it stays around 10,000, that would represent roughly 3 percent of Amazon's corporate employees and less than 1 percent of its global workforce of more than 1.5 million, which is primarily composed of hourly workers," NYTimes said. A deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop led America's second-largest employer to announce a hiring freeze in early October (read: here). Amazon recruiters were instructed to halt all hiring for "corporate roles, including technology positions, globally in its Amazon stores business, which covers the company's retail and operations, and accounts for the bulk of Amazon's sales" by mid-Oct. Then in late October, the company froze hiring for its lucrative web services division, Amazon Web Services. Amazon shares pumped and dumped on today's news.

 Five-Digit Layoffs Are Here, the Big Ones We’ve Been Waiting for. But the Laid-Off People Are Scattered around the Globe by Wolf Richter - - Amazon made the news today on reports based on sources that it would be laying off up to about 10,000 full-time employees, less than 1% of its global workforce of 1.5 million; after Meta said it would lay off 11,000 people, about 13% of its workforce; after Twitter laid off 50% of its 7,500 employees globally and, in a second wave this weekend, cancelled 4,400 to 5,500 contractors. This comes after months of small-scale layoffs in “tech” – and “tech” these days is anything that does part of its business online, from used-car dealers (Carvana) to taxi enterprises (Lyft). For example, Twitter. It has offices around the globe. Its 50% announcement included its staff in India. It had over 200 employees in India, and over 90% were laid off.Then there are H1-B visa holders. Tech employs large numbers of them. Twitter did not specifically address that, but Meta did. They have only a certain amount of time to find another sponsoring employer, and if they cannot find one, they will lose their visa status and have to leave the country.Twitter also laid off 784 workers in San Francisco, where it’s headquartered, according to Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act filings with the State; it laid off 106 employees in San Jose; and 93 in Santa Monica.According to WARN act fillings with Washington state on Monday, 208 Twitter employees were laid off in Seattle. The layoffs are scattered all around the US and the globe.The estimated 4,400 to 5,500 contractors that were cut this weekend were based all over the world, including India.Twitter adopted work from home as the permanent approach. Employees who used to live in San Francisco before the pandemic might have moved to inland California or other states. Others might have turned into digital nomads, working in some tropical paradise.Meta too had switched to working from home for many employees. Of those 11,000 employees that Meta is laying off, 362 will be from an office in San Francisco, according to Supervisor Matt Dorsey, citing a WARN Act notice that the City had received.In total, about 2,564 of the 11,000 global Meta layoffs will be in the Bay Area, according to WARN Act notices with the California Employment Development Department.That’s were those jobs were located. But maybe not where the people are located. It doesn’t mean that these employees were actually living in the Bay Area. Some might have moved inland California or to other states, and some might be working out of Mexico or Thailand or wherever.Amazon is an ecommerce retailer and brick-and-mortar retailer with its Whole Foods Market stores; it’s also a tech company because of its cloud division, AWS. But it’s not laying off at AWS.According to the report, first published by the New York Times, and then by others, including The Wall Street Journal that then cited their own sources, the cuts will mostly be corporate staff, not warehouse staff. A big part of the layoffs will be in Amazon’s retail division, human resources, and in its devices division, which makes the Alexa smart speakers among other gadgets, and has 10,000 employees. The retail division had already imposed a hiring freeze in October.Since Q1, Amazon has been whittling down its massive 1.5 million global workforce through attrition by roughly 78,000 jobs. And attrition came easy, given the massive churn in the labor force in general, the huge number of people who quit jobs to take better jobs, and the huge number of job openings that companies were aggressively trying to fill. Job-hopping has been richly rewarded: While the pay of job-stayers increased by 7.7%, the pay of job-changers jumped by 15.2% in October, according to the ADP National Employment Report.And the layoffs of up to 10,000 people at Amazon are minor compared to the 800,000 people Amazon hired helter-skelter during the pandemic boom – from the end of 2019 through the end of 2021 – the biggest boom ever for ecommerce. And it’s just that some sanity is returning to management.Over the past few weeks, Amazon has already been cancelling contractors that work in recruiting, according to sources cited by the WSJ.

Packers Sanitation Services accused of employing children for graveyard shifts - A leading US food sanitation company has employed dozens of children as young as 13 to work in dangerous conditions during long graveyard shifts, federal officials said.Packers Sanitation Services allegedly used child labor in three meatpacking plants across two states, according to the Labor Department.The DOL asked a federal court to issue a nationwide temporary restraining order and injunction against the company over its alleged crimes at plants in Grand Island, Nebraska, Worthington, Minnesota and Marshall, Minnesota.Over 30 young employees, all under the age of 18, were tasked with cleaning dangerous powered equipment during overnight shifts, according to the department.Several, including a 13-year-old worker, suffered “serious” chemical burns, according to a federal lawsuitagainst the company.Many of the underage workers were responsible for cleaning heavy-duty tools on a factory kill floor, including beef dehorners, brisket saws and a “190-pound saw used to split cow carcasses in half length-wise,” the suit says.After finishing their shifts early in the morning, several children went directly to their middle schools, where they routinely fell asleep in class, the filing states.. Many of the children worked between 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. or 7 a.m., the document states. The young workers worked five or six days per week, with several clocking in seven days of work per week. The investigation was launched in August after a “credible” source came forward alleging the company employed minors in hazardous conditions, the DOL said. Upon learning of the investigation, PSSI managers “attempted to thwart or tamper the collection of evidence in multiple ways,” the filing states. The supervisors allegedly told investigators they weren’t allowed to take photographs and tried to block investigators from interviewing the workers in addition to deleting documents containing evidence.PSSI has denied the allegations, telling NBC News it “has an absolute company-wide prohibition against the employment of anyone under the age of 18 and zero tolerance for any violation of that policy — period.” “While rogue individuals could of course seek to engage in fraud or identity theft, we are confident in our company’s strict compliance policies and will defend ourselves vigorously against these claims,” a spokesperson said.Federal law prohibits children under the age of 14 from working in any capacity. Children aged 14 and 15 are only allowed to work before 7 p.m. during the school year, and no later than 9 p.m. in the summer. Children cannot work more than three hours on school days, eight hours on a non-school day or more than 18 hours per week.It is also illegal for children to operate the dangerous equipment the PSSI was allegedly entrusting the kids to use.

Dozens Of Children Worked Slaughterhouse Graveyard Shifts According To Labor Department - A top sanitation company has been accused of employing at least 31 children to clean the killing floors of slaughterhouses during graveyard shifts - one as young as 13, according to the Department of Labor. The company, Packers Sanitation Services, or PSSI (owned by Blackstone), is contracted to work at meatpacking facilities and slaughterhouses across the country. According to court documents filed Wednesday, the children were allegedly employed at three facilities in Nebraska and Minnesota, NBC News reports.The company employs over 17,000 employees at more than 700 locations across the country, according to PSSI's website.The investigation found that minors cleaned the killing floors and various machines — including meat and bone cutting saws and a grinding machine — during the graveyard shifts, according to the complaint.PSSI employed at least a dozen 17-year-olds across the three slaughterhouses, fourteen 16-year-olds, three 15-year-olds, one 14-year-old and one 13-year-old, the complaint said. -NBC NewsAccording to the complaint, an Aug. 24 investigation was launched after law enforcement officials were tipped off that the company may be employing children. Search warrants were executed at two plants owned by food processor JBS USA in Grand Island, Nebraska and Worthington, Minnesota - and at a poultry processing plant in Minnesota. If true, the practice would violate the Fair Labor Standards Act, which prohibits employers from "oppressive child labor," as well as minors from working in any type of hazardous employment, reads the complaint, which asks the Federal District Court of Nebraska to issue a temporary restraining order as well as a nationwide preliminary injunction against the company to stop it from employing minors while the Labor Department investigates.Initial evidence indicates the company may also employ more kids under similar conditions at 400 other sites across the country, in addition to the 31 minors employed at three sites that investigators already confirmed, according to the complaint. The court partially granted the Department of Labor’s request in a Thursday filing. That order requires PSSI to “immediately cease and refrain from employing oppressive child labor” and comply with the Department of Labor’s investigation. -NBC News

Native American kids are at the center of a high-stakes SCOTUS case --The Supreme Court heard arguments last week in a case challenging laws surrounding the care of Native American children that, depending on the ruling, could fundamentally alter the foundations of tribal sovereignty that have been in place for more than two centuries. The case, Brackeen v. Haaland, centers around the Indian Child Welfare Act (ICWA), a law passed in 1978 in response to the alarming rate at which Native children werebeing taken from their homes, often to be placed in non-Native families. Under the ICWA, state authorities handling child custody cases involving Native children are required to place them in another Native American home whenever possible, preferably with members of their family or within their own tribe. Three white families, with the backing of a handful of conservative states, have filed a lawsuit claiming that the ICWA puts the interests of tribes ahead of those of children and violates constitutional protections against race-based discrimination.Hundreds of Native American tribes from across the country have asked the court to reject the challenge, arguing that the word Indian in the law refers to the uniquepolitical status of tribe members — not their race. For more than 200 years, U.S. law has considered Indigenous tribes to be distinct governments with the power to make and enforce their own laws. Because of this distinction, the 574 federally recognized Indian tribes in the United States have the right to run their own health services and criminal justice systems, set gaming laws, determine land rights practices and carry out a long list of other functions independent of the state and federal governments. Plaintiffs challenging the ICWA say that tribes’ distinct status, though appropriate in many circumstances, goes too far when it’s applied to child custody cases. In their view, prioritizing Native families for adoption means children end up being taken away from the foster parents who have cared for them for years — often to be placed in homes that are less able to protect their welfare. Others argue that tribal identity should be just one factor that’s considered when the authorities are weighing the best interest of a child, not one that supersedes all others. Opponents of this view say the ICWA is a critical means of protecting tribes from efforts to erode their sovereignty and culture. They point to a long history of campaigns designed to dilute, or even eliminate, Indigenous peoples — often by removing children from tribal communities. Some experts say the ICWA should be considered the “gold standard” of child welfare policies and make the case that custody decisions involving all children should also weigh familial and cultural considerations. The most fervent opposition, though, comes from tribes and legal experts who see the case as a means of eroding tribal sovereignty more generally. They argue that if the court rules that Indian is a racial designation, every single law built on the principle that it's actually a political status would be under threat. That could mean tribes could lose their ability to govern themselves on a whole range of issues or, in the most extreme scenario, lose their right to self-governance altogether.

 Lawmakers consider big changes for the Ohio State Board of Education - WOUB Public Media — Three candidates who had backing from two large teachers’ unions won big in Ohio State Board of Education races last week. Now, as Ohio lawmakers come back into session after the election, they are considering reining in the power of state school board members.But a Senate bill, SB178, would change that.Senate President Matt Huffman (R-Lima) said senators are going to consider a bill that would give the governor and legislature more power over the state’s school board.“We have an isolated bureaucracy with no oversight. That’s the problem. It’s not who is on the board. It is the legal makeup of what is happening right now,” Huffman told reporters Wednesday.Huffman said being on the state school board is a part-time job with no staff. He said they are unable to manage the Ohio Department of Education.“That system as it has grown through the decades in the state of Ohio essentially has an isolated Ohio Department of Education, has no responsibility to the state legislature and essentially can thrust and parry whatever it is that the state board of education members put before them from time to time and they don’t have any responsibility toward the governor either because they are not his employees,” Huffman said.This legislation would strip the elected board of most of its current educational responsibilities and put them under a new cabinet position in the governor’s office.Cynthia Peeples, founding director of the non-partisan statewide coalition Honesty for Ohio Education, is opposed to this bill. She said it is a matter of government overreach.“We are really concerned about this. I mean anytime you are taking power away from communities, you are taking power away from taxpayers and voters to have a say in what education looks like for their own communities and for their own students and families, it’s very concerning. And that power and decision making should not rest on one government body,” Peeples said.Peeples said the governor is a partisan position and by putting decisions now made by the state board under the power of that office would inject partisan politics into K-12 education.She said she is especially concerned because lawmakers are considering making such a big change during the lame duck session of the Ohio Legislature when there won’t be time to thoroughly vet the legislation.But Huffman said the change is needed now because even some state lawmakers have been waiting six years to get calls returned from the department.

Arizona teacher, hubby lose jobs after filming OnlyFans videos in class - An eighth-grade teacher in Arizona and her husband have lost their school jobs after they recorded OnlyFans videos in her classroom — a side hustle she claimed was necessary to supplement their low salaries.Using the alias “Khloe Karter,” Thunderbolt Middle School science teacher Samantha Peer uploaded the X-rated videos for her OnlyFans page, which her students found and shared among themselves, the Today’s News-Herald reported.Her husband, Nautilus Elementary School fourth-grade teacher Dillon Peer, also took part in the adult productions inside the Lake Havasu Unified School District building, according to the report.Samantha said she resigned “under pressure” Oct. 31 after being placed on paid administrative leave and probation. Dillon was let go four days later.On Friday, she released a video explaining that she and her hubby resorted to creating X-rated videos because of their low salaries. “My children are the most important thing to me, and I’m already spending countless hours outside of my contract time on extra school activities, and I don’t think it’s fair that I have to sacrifice my own children’s time because our professional salary did not pay enough,” she said, WFLA reported.

Teachers reported significantly higher rates of anxiety than other workers during the pandemic --Teachers experienced significantly more anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic than healthcare, office, and other workers, according to new research released today. Those teaching remotely reported substantially higher rates of depression and feelings of isolation than those teaching in person. The study, published in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association, was conducted by Joseph M. Kush at James Madison University and Elena Badillo Goicoechea, Rashelle J. Musci, and Elizabeth A. Stuart at Johns Hopkins University. The authors found that U.S. teachers were 40 percent more likely to report anxiety symptoms than healthcare workers, 20 percent more likely than office workers, and 30 percent more likely than workers in other occupations, such as military, farming, and legal professions. Among teachers, those who taught remotely were 60 percent more likely to report feelings of isolation than their in-person peers. Female teachers were 70 percent more likely to experience anxiety than male teachers. Even before the pandemic, teacher well-being was a major concern for school leaders. Our results demonstrate just how stressful the pandemic has been for teachers, especially those who are female and those who taught remotely." Kush, assistant professor of graduate psychology at James Madison University Kush said he and his co-authors were surprised that teachers reported significantly higher rates of anxiety than healthcare workers. "We would have guessed healthcare workers battling COVID-19 on the front lines during a public health crisis would display the most anxiety," said Kush. The authors also found that, in comparison to teachers, healthcare workers were less likely to report depression and feelings of isolation, although the size of the difference was small. "Although our study didn't examine the reasons behind teachers' anxiety levels," Kush said, "we might expect particularly high levels of stress due to the uncertainty over how schools were planning to provide instruction, abrupt changes to lesson plans and teaching methods for remote-learning environments, and the rapid adoption of new technologies." Across all occupations, women were 90 percent more likely than men to have anxiety and 40 percent more likely to experience depression. Women were also 20 percent more likely to have feelings of isolation. To examine the mental health of pre-K–12 teachers and professionals in other occupations, the authors used data collected from adult participants between September 8, 2020, and March 28, 2021, from the U.S. COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey, a large national online survey developed by Carnegie Mellon University's Delphi Group and Facebook. The survey respondents, who included nearly 3 million employed individuals, including 130,000 teachers, were asked to rate whether they had felt symptoms of anxiety, depression, and isolation during the previous seven days. According to the authors, their study is the first to empirically assess teacher mental health during the pandemic using a large national dataset, with the results highly generalizable to teachers across the U.S.

Attractive women get better grades — unless school's online: study - Pretty privilege is real, according to a new study on university students — or at least it was, until COVID-19 levelled the playing field. A recent paper published in peer-reviewed journal Economics Letters found men and women in certain university courses got better grades the more physically attractive they were — but when learning shifted online during the pandemic, the report found women lost their edge while men retained it. Study author Adrian Mehic, a fifth-year PhD student at Sweden’s Lund University, said his paper was the first to analyze the impact of virtual learning on the “beauty premium,” or the advantage gained from being physically attractive. That said, there have been plenty of other research into the boons of attractiveness. For example, pretty people are often more confident, satisfied with their lives and reportedly less likely to engage in criminal activities, according to recent studies. “We know those that are super attractive versus those that are very unattractive, there could be like a 10 to 12 per cent wage gap between them,” Mehic told the Star, citing recent research. “ … Now with our study, we know that this discrimination also exists in the higher education system.” Mehic’s project followed 307 industrial engineering students in their first and second years at Lund University, tracking their school performance before and after the switch to online learning during COVID-19. To rank each student’s attractiveness, Mehic assembled a 74-person jury to rate students on a scale from one to ten. As expected, Mehic found attractiveness positively correlated with better grades in nonquantitative courses like business or the humanities, which rely more on student-teacher interaction. The effect was not present in quantitative courses like math and physics. This correlation disappeared with the move to remote learning — but only for female students. Attractive male students retained their beauty premium, a “big surprise” to Mehic. “These findings suggest that the return to facial beauty is likely to be primarily due to discrimination for females, and the result of a productive trait for males,” Mehic hypothesized in the paper.

Ohio State enrollment reaches number not seen in years — The largest university in Ohio is facing an identity issue: It’s getting smaller. Ohio State University’s total student enrollment is the lowest it has been since 2016, according to the university’s enrollment reports from the past decade. In other metrics, too, the university is coming up short of recent years’ record-breaking highs, while total ethnic minority enrollment is the highest it’s ever been. With this fall semester’s 15-day enrollment tallying 65,795 students across all levels and campuses, the midwestern school known for its larger-than-life state presence is down nearly 2,000 students from 2021. The lower enrollment follows a trend born out of the COVID-19 pandemic; Ohio State’s highest total enrollment was in 2019 with 68,262 students. Since then, numbers across education levels have continued to fall — but not quite as starkly as in 2022. Undergraduate student enrollment is similarly at a low point, continuing a trend of decreasing numbers since it peaked in 2018 at 53,734 students. At 51,377 undergraduates across all campuses, Ohio State's largest student group is the smallest it's been since 2014. The decrease in overall enrollment is partially intentional. After undergraduate enrollment at the Columbus campus peaked last fall with 47,106 students, spokesperson Chris Booker said Ohio State decided to lower the number of first-year students it accepted. The lower first-year enrollment came even as Ohio State received a record number of applicants, Booker said, with 71,343 prospective first-year students applying for fall admission. 2022 Columbus campus enrollment levels, however, are lower than they were before 2021. At 60,540, total student enrollment at the Columbus campus is the lowest it's been since 2018. Even as total enrollment declined, minority enrollment peaked this fall, continuing a years-long trend seemingly unaffected by the pandemic..

Journalism Tops List Of 'Most Regretted' College Majors - A whopping 87% of Journalism majors say they regret their decision, and would pick a different major if they could, according to CNBC, citing a ZipRecruiter survey of more than 1,500 college graduates who were looking for a job. The aspiring corporate media propagandists were followed by Sociology and Liberal Arts majors at 72% each, and communications majors at 64%."When we graduate, reality hits," said ZipRecruiter head economist, Sinem Buber, adding "When you are barely managing to pay your bills, your paycheck might become more important."On average, 44% of all job seekers with college degrees regret their field of study. The poll comes months after a Reuters survey found that trust in the mainstream media is evaporating.It comes down to moneyAccording to "The College Payoff," a report from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, bachelor's degree holders typically earn 84% more than those with just a high school diploma, however of course, career path matters.When broken down by areas of study, however, the difference is striking. Students who pursue a major specifically in science, technology, engineering and math — collectively known as STEM disciplines — are projected to earn the most overall.In addition to STEM, health and business majors are among the highest-paying, leading to average annual wages that are higher at the entry level and significantly greater over the course of a career compared with liberal arts and humanities majors, the Georgetown Center found. –CNBC. What are the least regretted majors?Computer and information sciences, criminology, engineering, nursing, and health.

Strike by 48,000 academic workers begins at University of California campuses - On Monday, 48,000 academic workers at the University of California (UC) system began an indefinite strike, spanning across the most populous state in the US. Postdoctoral and academic researchers, tutors, graduate student instructors and assistants are demanding increased wages and benefits to catch up with skyrocketing housing and other living expenses.The strike has shut down online and in-person lectures, grading, research, and other university operations. The majority of professors have canceled lectures, while adjuncts, faculty, and undergraduate students have joined the picket lines in solidarity.The striking academic workers are members of locals 5810 and 2865 of the United Auto Workers union and Student Researchers United (SRU-UAW), which was just recognized in December. Lauren, a chemistry grad student at UC Davis said, “I moved into an apartment by myself. Unless you’re living in a house with numerous other students, about 75 percent of your paycheck goes towards rent. “My parents have to help me out because it’s not enough for me to be able to buy groceries,” Lauren added, “and I’m living in Davis, one of the cheaper California cities. I can’t imagine people in San Diego or San Francisco even attempting to live.” Shawn, a communications undergrad at UC San Diego, said he struggles with the high costs of living and bills. “I really resonate with the strike, because even before I was a student here, I was promised an ideal version of what the UC system would look like. I was promised support and benefits for being a former foster youth, but when I actually came here, my first year I struggled really heavily financially. “I wasn’t able to pay for my class fees on time, and I got a lot of holds. I realized that the UC system makes promises that it can’t really keep with trying to support students who don’t have any family income, so seeing the people here who are struggling to pay rent and pay bills, I really resonate with that. Even as an undergrad, I don’t make enough money for what I have to spend on bills this month. “The UC system, at least going off of my experience, has always been a place that has tried to squeeze every ounce of work, time, energy, from their students and staff as possible for the least amount of money needed to go into it.” Zhanè, a PhD student in the Anthropology Department at UC San Diego, noted that “Definitely the money is a big concern in my mind. Most of my income is going to living costs, bills, things like that. Pretty much at the end it’s like you either have a little bit left, or nothing at all, and you’re just kind of like, hopefully an emergency doesn’t happen, because if an emergency happens you literally have nothing.

British Columbia Teachers' Federation seeks to impose massive wage cuts on 49,000 educators - The British Columbia Teachers’ Federation (BCTF), which represents 49,000 educators, is in the process of ramming through a rotten sellout agreement on its members that contains massive real-terms wage cuts and maintains overwhelming workloads. The deal mirrors agreements concluded with the New Democratic Party (NDP) provincial government by almost all major public sector unions, including the Canadian Union of Public Employees BC (CUPE), the Healthcare Employees Union (HEU), and British Columbia General Employees Union (BCGEU). With an official provincial inflation rate at 7.7 percent, and prices for food and other basic necessities rising even faster, the three-year contract calls for meagre raises of 3.24 percent in the first, between 5.5 and 6 percent depending on inflation in the second, and between 2 and 3 percent in the final year. BC’s trade union bureaucracies have engaged in a perfidious, coordinated attempt to force austerity and continued unsafe working conditions onto almost 400,000 public sector workers ever since collective agreements began expiring in the spring. At every point, the goal of the BCGEU, BCTF, CUPE and others was to prevent a unified struggle by all workers against the bureaucrats’ friends, and often party colleagues, in the pro-austerity, pro-corporate NDP government. The BCGEU played a key role in this operation. Despite receiving an overwhelming mandate to strike from its 30,000 members of 95 percent, the leadership insisted throughout their dispute that a negotiated settlement was their only interest. In effect, their paramount concern was the preservation of the collective bargaining framework, a process that preserves their own material privileges and gives them the right to negotiate sellouts for their members. When the BCGEU leadership finally was compelled to call a strike at government-owned liquor and cannabis stores, the leadership called strikes at only 4 different locations throughout the entire province for two weeks. They then arbitrarily called off the strike without consulting the membership, returned to the negotiating table, and announced within days their acceptance of the wage-cutting deal that is now serving as the benchmark for enforcing “wage restraint” on hundreds of thousands of workers. Underscoring the widespread disgust felt by rank-and-file BCGEU members, the contract only passed with 52 percent support on a turnout of 70 percent. In other words, only a little over one-third of the union’s membership backed it. Even before the rotten sellout was reluctantly ratified by the BCGEU membership, the other public sector unions rushed to announce their acceptance of the same deal. The BCTF was first among them, announcing immediately after the BCGEU released its agreement that they would halt all wage negotiations forthwith. Despite bluster from the BCTF leadership about its ongoing determination to fight for reduced class sizes and staffing ratios, the government made no concessions on these points. The bureaucracy was left to tout a miserable 10-minute increase in prep time per week and some vaguely worded improvements to mental health support as the reasons for calling the contract a victory. The behavior of the other provincial union leaders during this time has bordered on farcical. Not once did they do anything that would materially aid the BCGEU struggle. There was not a single call for solidarity strikes from any of them, nor were they asked for by the BCGEU leadership. Instead, they resorted to lip service platitudes and empty gestures.

‘Positively dystopian’: Florida judge blocks DeSantis’ anti-woke law for colleges - — A federal judge on Thursday halted a key piece of the “Stop-WOKE” Act touted by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, blocking state officials from enforcing what he called a “positively dystopian” policy restricting how lessons on race and gender can be taught in colleges and universities.The 138-page order from Chief U.S. District Judge Mark Walker is being heralded as a major win for campus free speech by the groups who challenged the state.The temporary injunction granted by Walker over the anti-woke law has significant implications for policies in Florida, including a pending university tenure review rule that requires professors to abide by it.“’It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen,’ and the powers in charge of Florida’s public university system have declared the State has unfettered authority to muzzle its professors in the name of ‘freedom,’” Walker wrote, citing George Orwell’s novel “1984.” Walker was appointed to the federal bench by former President Barack Obama.Florida’s Republican-led Legislature approved the “anti-woke” legislation,FL HB 7 (22R), or the Individual Freedom Act, earlier this year. The law, directly inspired by DeSantis, expands Florida’s anti-discrimination laws to prohibit schools and companies from leveling guilt or blame to students and employees based on race or sex, takes aim at lessons over issues like “white privilege” by creating new protections for students and workers, including that a person should not be instructed to “feel guilt, anguish, or any other form of psychological distress” due to their race, color, sex or national origin.Bryan Griffin, a spokesperson for the governor, said the administration will appeal.“We strongly disagree with Judge Walker’s preliminary injunction orders on the enforcement of the Stop W.O.K.E. Act and will continue to fight,” he said in a statement.

Biden will ask Supreme Court to revive student debt relief plan – The Biden administration will ask the Supreme Court to revive its student debt relief program as it fights to reverse lower court rulings that have upended its plans to forgive up to $20,000 of debt for tens of millions of Americans.The Justice Department said in a court filing on Thursday that it planned to ask the Supreme Court to reverse an injunction issued earlier this week by the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals that prohibits the administration from carrying out student debt relief.Separately, the Justice Department is asking the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals to put on hold a decision by a district court judge in Texas to strike down the debt relief program as illegal. The DOJ asked for a ruling from that appeals court by Dec. 1 “to allow the government to seek relief from the Supreme Court” if needed.The various emergency requests by the Biden administration tee up what could be the most consequential Supreme Court showdown yet over President Joe Biden’s debt relief policy in the coming weeks.Justice Amy Coney Barrett has twice rejected preliminary requests in other lawsuits to block Biden’s debt relief program. But neither case had addressed the legal merits of the program.The lawsuit now heading to the Supreme Court was brought by six Republican state officials who are trying to stop Biden’s debt relief program, which they have slammed as unfair and unconstitutional. The ruling earlier this week by the 8th Circuit found that at least one of the states, Missouri, had standing to bring the case. The three-judge panel unanimously voted to pause Biden’s debt relief program while the lawsuit plays out.The other lawsuit, in the 5th Circuit, was filed by the Jobs Creator Network Foundation, a conservative group, on behalf of two student loan borrowers who were fully or partially excluded from the debt relief plan. The Biden administration is asking the appeals court to put on hold a lower court ruling by District Judge Mark Pittman, a Trump appointee, who declared the program unconstitutional.

Inflation & Economic Woes Lead 54% Of 'Gen Z' Americans To Live With Their Parents - Generation Z, the youngest generation of American adults, are struggling in an era of high inflation and expensive housing, with more than half of them living with their parents in an uncertain economic environment. At least 54 percent of adults aged 18–25 are opting to live with their parents out of economic necessity, according to a new study of over 300 participants conducted by The Harris Poll and commissioned by DailyPay.The Gen Zers now in adulthood and who are seeking to become independent from their families are starting to have trouble remaining financially afloat, as the cost of everyday items goes up.Out of all of the respondents polled, 80 percent of Gen Z say that they expect the U.S. economy to remain the same or decline through next year.This youngest American age cohort started to enter the workforce in the midst of a pandemic and increasing political instability at home and abroad.They also happen to be the most technologically savvy generation when it comes to social media.Unlike the previous millennial generation, which came of age during the “War on Terror” and the Great Recession, American Gen Z have grown up in an era of relative peace.However, for most of this year, inflation has remained around 8 percent, a 40-year high, pushing up prices across the board, as the Federal Reserve raises borrowing rates to control rising prices.A spike in housing and rental prices across the country since the pandemic have also made it hard for young adults to find an affordable home.Gen Z Is Facing an Initial Disadvantage Entering the WorkforceMuch like the millennials over a decade ago, many of these young Americans are very concerned about their long-term financial prospects, according to the survey.“Between COVID, inflation, and a looming recession, Gen Z has kicked off adulthood in the most uncertain of times,” Jeanniey Walden, chief innovation and marketing officer at DailyPay, told FOX Business.“So it’s no surprise that many say current economic conditions are keeping them living at home and/or worrying about paying bills on time.”Only 28 of those surveyed between the ages of 18–25 said that they were regularly able to pay off their bills on time.About 41 percent said they were concerned that rising inflation would make it more difficult for them to pay their bills over the next year, and 38 percent expect that necessities like food and fuel would become more expensive to buy.

Study: COVID-19-related financial strain took a distinct toll on adolescent mental health --Financial stress due to the COVID-19 pandemic took a distinct toll on adolescent mental health and contributed to depressive symptoms, according to a new study by researchers at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP). The study, published today in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, found the effect was most pronounced in low-income adolescents but also affected all income groups who experienced financial strain due to loss of income. People often think children do not feel or understand financial stress, but this study shows not only that they do, but that this stress also takes a toll on their mental health. Given the strain inflation is likely placing on families' finances, our findings underscore that financial stress is a key risk factor for adolescent mental health during economic crises and that addressing this stress is important given the current global youth mental health crisis." The COVID-19 pandemic has had a tremendous impact on global public health, but it has also contributed to a global economic crisis, which has both exacerbated financial issues in struggling families and introduced newfound financial strain to many others. Prior research at CHOP and LiBI has shown an association between pandemic-associated income loss and financial stress and depressive symptom in adults. However, despite an ongoing global youth mental health crisis, there previously was little data on the impact of financial stress on adolescent mental health. To better understand this relationship, the CHOP researchers analyzed data from 9,720 adolescents who were a part of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ABCD Study®), a diverse sample of more than 10,000 U.S. children between the ages of 11 and 14. The researchers investigated the specific association of financial strain with adolescent mental health between May 2020 and May 2021. All participants had pre-pandemic data on household income and mental health. The researchers found that adolescents whose families lost wages due to the pandemic were more likely to be Black (19.5% vs. 12.2%), Hispanic (22.0% vs. 12.9%), and below the poverty line (15.2% vs 4.2%) than those who did not. Those groups also expressed greater levels of stress about the financial impacts of the pandemic. Both pandemic-related wage loss and financial stress were more prevalent among youth with lower pre-pandemic household income – in other words, the poor were more likely to become poorer, with greater negative impacts on mental health. Youth from families who lost wages, regardless of pre-pandemic income, reported more depressive symptoms compared to those from families who did not lose wages; they also reported experiencing more perceived stress. The association between financial stress and depressive symptoms was significant even when accounting for pre-pandemic mental health.

As US rural hospitals close at unprecedented rate, health care workers speak on deteriorating conditions - Rural hospitals throughout the United States are facing an unprecedented rate of closures, further endangering the health of rural communities. According to a recent report from the Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform, 631 rural hospitals are currently at risk of closure in the immediate and near future. This equates to roughly 30 percent of all rural hospitals. While these closures affect every region of the country, states that are likely to be hit the hardest include Connecticut, Alabama, Hawaii and Mississippi, where the percentages of rural hospitals at risk of closure are 67 percent, 60 percent, 75 percent and 54 percent, respectively. A 2022 American Hospital Association (AHA) report indicates that the key issues threatening rural hospitals are low reimbursement rates, staffing shortages, low patient volume, continued financial challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, and aging infrastructure. In addition, the report describes how expenses for labor, drugs, supplies and equipment have increased dramatically over the past year, putting additional pressure on rural hospital finances. This is not a new phenomenon. The AHA report states that 136 rural hospitals closed from 2010 to 2021, with a record 19 closures in 2020 alone, the most of any year in the past decade. Before the pandemic, hundreds of rural hospitals were barely able to keep their doors open. The COVID-19 pandemic greatly exacerbated financial pressures, due especially to cancellation of scheduled procedures and care, creating an estimated loss of 70 percent of income for rural hospitals. The financial burden on rural hospitals is only growing. Mark Holmes, director of the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research that oversees the North Carolina Rural Health Research Center, stated that many rural health professionals “are gravely concerned about what the rest of this year and … 2023 are going to look like.” The effects of hospital closures on rural communities are numerous and far-reaching. With the closure of a hospital, patients can be forced to travel hours for emergency or regular medical care, which can result in significantly delayed treatment. These delays compound existing health disparities faced by workers in rural areas who are more likely—due to poverty, poor access to primary care, or less access to health insurance—to suffer from chronic disease. Health care workers struggle with the conditions created by hospital closures and hospitals on the brink of financial collapse. World Socialist Web Site reporters reached out to health care workers on social media about their working conditions in rural areas and the stresses of increased hospital closures on the medical system.

Sick Profit: Investigating Private Equity’s Stealthy Takeover of Health Care Across Cities and Specialties - Two-year-old Zion Gastelum died just days after dentists performed root canals and put crowns on six baby teeth at a clinic affiliated with a private equity firm. His parents sued the Kool Smiles dental clinic in Yuma, Arizona, and its private equity investor, FFL Partners. They argued the procedures were done needlessly, in keeping with a corporate strategy to maximize profits by overtreating kids from lower-income families enrolled in Medicaid. Zion died after being diagnosed with “brain damage caused by a lack of oxygen,” according to the lawsuit. Kool Smiles “overtreats, underperforms and overbills,” the family alleged in the suit, which was settled last year under confidential terms. FFL Partners and Kool Smiles had no comment but denied liability in court filings. Private equity is rapidly moving to reshape health care in America, coming off a banner year in 2021, when the deep-pocketed firms plowed $206 billion into more than 1,400 health care acquisitions, according to industry tracker PitchBook. Seeking quick returns, these investors are buying into eye care clinics, dental management chains, physician practices, hospices, pet care providers, and thousands of other companies that render medical care nearly from cradle to grave. Private equity-backed groups have even set up special “obstetric emergency departments” at some hospitals, which can charge expectant mothers hundreds of dollars extra for routine perinatal care. As private equity extends its reach into health care, evidence is mounting that the penetration has led to higher prices and diminished quality of care, a KHN investigation has found. KHN found that companies owned or managed by private equity firms have agreed to pay fines of more than $500 million since 2014 to settle at least 34 lawsuits filed under the False Claims Act, a federal law that punishes false billing submissions to the federal government with fines. Most of the time, the private equity owners have avoided liability. New research by the University of California-Berkeley has identified “hot spots” where private equity firms have quietly moved from having a small foothold to controlling more than two-thirds of the market for physician services such as anesthesiology and gastroenterology in 2021. And KHN found that in San Antonio, more than two dozen gastroenterology offices are controlled by a private equity-backed group that billed a patient $1,100 for her share of a colonoscopy charge — about three times what she paid in another state. It’s not just prices that are drawing scrutiny. Whistleblowers and injured patients are turning to the courts to press allegations of misconduct or other improper business dealings. The lawsuits allege that some private equity firms, or companies they invested in, have boosted the bottom line by violating federal false claims and anti-kickback laws or through other profit-boosting strategies that could harm patients. “Their model is to deliver short-term financial goals and in order to do that you have to cut corners,” said Mary Inman, an attorney who represents whistleblowers. Federal regulators, meanwhile, are almost blind to the incursion, since private equity typically acquires practices and hospitals below the regulatory radar. KHN found that more than 90% of private equity takeovers or investments fall below the $101 million threshold that triggers an antitrust review by the Federal Trade Commission and the U.S. Justice Department.

In letter to Biden: Doctors and nurses warn of “breaking point” in hospital ERs - A letter to the Biden administration jointly penned last week by 33 medical groups, that include the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and Emergency Nurses Association (ENA), paints a devastating picture of the ongoing crisis that is overtaking emergency departments across the country.The letter was sent to President Joe Biden with a copy to Secretary Xavier Becerra of the Department of Health and Human Services and Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of the US Department of Homeland Security. The letter’s authors asked for a summit of health care leaders to carry out urgent collective action to address the evolving crisis, in which “Emergency departments (EDs) have been brought to a breaking point.” There has not been a word by the Biden administration in response to the nine-page letter. In the wake of the midterm elections, prosecution of the war in Ukraine and otherwise pursuing the interests of American imperialism remain foremost on the White House’s agenda. While all its attention goes to foreign policy, all mitigation measures against the COVID pandemic have been lifted ahead of what is likely to be a devastating winter of disease and death. After acknowledging the impact of the pandemic on the population and frontline health care workers, the letter begins by stating: “Our nation’s safety net is on the verge of breaking beyond repair; EDs are gridlocked and overwhelmed with patients waiting—waiting to be seen; waiting for admission to an inpatient bed in the hospital; waiting to be transferred to psychiatric, skilled nursing, or other specialized facilities; or, waiting simply to return to their nursing home. And this breaking point is entirely outside the control of the highly skilled emergency physicians, nurses, and other ED staff doing their best to keep everyone attended to and alive.” As the ACEP notes, the number of patients who are being held in emergency departments awaiting care, also known as boarding, has reached a crisis level. The letter underscored that the staffing levels are dangerously low and wait times are worse now than at any other point in the pandemic. The Joint Commission has defined boarding as “the practice of holding patients in the emergency department or another temporary location after the decision to admit or transfer has been made.” Current standards require that boarding times not exceed four hours, to avoid increased mortality and length of hospital stays. The violation of the “standard of care” is a particular problem for the poorest sections of the working class, especially those who lack health insurance or find it difficult to access their primary care practitioners. The ACEP wrote on its website, “Emergency care teams are strained to their limits. Demand for emergency care and services show no signs of slowing as we head straight towards this winter’s ‘triple threat’ of flu, COVID-19, and pediatric respiratory illnesses like RSV that are filling emergency departments. The influx of patients only piles more stress onto the shoulders of emergency physicians who are doing all they can to treat anyone who needs them.” As one anonymous ED physician explained to the ACEP, more than half of ED beds at their facility are filled with boarder patients. At one point, there were 35 boarders in a 22-bed ED and an additional 20 patients in the waiting room. Average patient boarding times ran to 70 hours, or almost three days, and the longest patient stay last month was over 200 hours. The doctor added, “In addition, we have patients who unfortunately have died in our waiting room while awaiting treatment. These deaths were entirely due to boarding. Our boarding numbers have unfortunately skyrocketed in the wake of COVID as a consequence of increasing surgical volumes and decreasing inpatient nurse staffing. Our tertiary care center is crippled with no end in sight.”

Intermediate levels of indoor relative humidity shown to improve COVID-19 outcomes globally - In a recent study published in the Journal of the Royal Society, researchers found that indoor relative humidity (RH) modulates the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks, and intermediate RHs between 40 to 60% are robustly associated with better COVID-19 outcomes.. In the present study, researchers hypothesized that indoor RH might have been partially responsible for the observed regional heterogeneity in global COVID-19 outcomes. They proposed that indoor, not outdoor, environment is more relevant or closely correlated with COVID-19 spread and severity. So they pursued answers to questions, such as regional differences in COVID-19 severity and epidemic dynamics and how the regional variability in COVID-19 related to indoor relative humidity levels. Additionally, they investigated whether the association between the two could withstand variations in methodologies and confounding factors, such as government response and outdoor weather conditions. First, the team accumulated a dataset with global coverage of the coronavirus outbreaks. They aggregated data by region to facilitate comparisons of temperate and tropical regions. The researchers selected 121 countries with a minimum of 50 confirmed COVID-19 deaths and extracted their COVID-19 statistics from the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) datasets. They paired each country's geographical centroid with meteorological data. RH is the relative measurement of the actual saturation vapor pressure ratio. The team computed the average indoor conditions for each country for the new COVID-19 deaths, the difference in these deaths, and the percent change in new deaths for each country. They examined the environmental conditions associated with good or bad COVID-19 outcomes in a case-control fashion for more reliable quantitative predictions. The team also computed the odds of a better or worse COVID-19 outcome based on exposure to extreme or intermediate RH conditions. Any value greater than 1.0 indicated that intermediate RH was associated with fewer new deaths and negative day-to-day change in new deaths (better outcomes). Finally, the team validated their findings against widely varying government intervention stringencies, ‘low,’ ‘medium,’ and ‘high.’ They calculated common odds ratios with the time-lagged government responses and the time-lagged indoor RH. The researchers used a rigorously processed extensive global dataset of COVID-19 statistics and meteorological variables, with extrapolated and validated indoor RH levels. The dataset was highly complex and noisy concerning the COVID-19 outbreak magnitude and reporting conditions. Yet, the same general patterns tended to persist even when differing time lags and applying different data treatments. The researchers, thus, noted a systematic association between COVID-19 and indoor RH. However, as expected, the results could not elucidate a causal relationship between RH and respiratory viral diseases. Indeed, this relationship is complex and multifaceted from physiological and biophysical standpoints.

Vitamin D can reduce severity and spread of COVID-19 -In a recent study published in the Scientific Reports journal, researchers in the United States assessed the relationship between supplementation with vitamin D and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and related mortality.Vitamin D deficiency has long been linked to impaired immunological function, which can result in viral infection. In addition, multiple studies have demonstrated that vitamin D deficiency is related to an increased risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, it is unclear whether Vitamin D therapy can lessen the likelihood of COVID-19 infection. In the present study, researchers performed a large-scale pharmacoepidemiologic investigation to determine the relationship between vitamin D2 and D3 supplementation and the risk of COVID-19 infection-related mortality within 30 days. The primary outcome of the study involved laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection as measured by any Medicare claim or VA medical record having the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) code U07.1. COVID-19-associated mortality was also analyzed as a secondary endpoint. The team defined COVID-19-associated mortality as any death occurring within 30 days of infection.When potential confounding variables were matched, the groups receiving vitamin D3 supplementation and control participants were comparable. A more significant proportion of Black patients were supplemented with vitamin D2 compared to vitamin D3. In general, vitamin D3 recipients experienced more comorbid illnesses than D2 recipients. The vitamin D3 cohort displayed COVID-19 infection rates of 2.66% and 3.30% for the treated and the controls, respectively. Furthermore, the infection rates followed by mortality within 30 days were 0.23% and 0.35% for the treated and the control participants, respectively. The rates of COVID-19 infection that led to mortality in the vitamin D2 group were 0.20% and 0.26% for the treated and the controls within 30 days, respectively.Compared to untreated controls, vitamin D2 and D3 supplementation during the pandemic reduced the probability of COVID-19 infection by 20% and 28%. Supplementation of vitamin D3 was related to a 33% decreased incidence of COVID-19 infection resulting in 30-day death. However, vitamin D2 results were not statistically significant. Compared to controls, a higher reduction in COVID-19 infection rates was observed among Black patients than White individuals. It was determined that vitamin D serum concentrations inversely correlated with the decline in COVID-19 infection risk.The overall treatment elicited by vitamin D serum level interaction was considerable, with a 12% rise in the hazard ratio for each category of serum level. A 25% reduction in COVID-19 risk throughout the spectrum of cumulative dosages and a 27% reduction across average daily dosages were also noted. The cumulative dose-response relationship was inversely related to vitamin D blood concentration.Overall, the study findings showed that vitamin D2 and vitamin D3 supplementation significantly reduced the risk of COVID-19 infection and death within 30 days. Therefore, the researchers believe vitamin D3 supplementation could be a valuable strategy for limiting the spread of COVID-19 infection and related death and racial differences in COVID-19 outcomes.

COVID-19 mRNA boosters induce robust but non-durable immune response in the elderly --A study published in the journal Frontiers in Immunology describes that the third booster dose of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) effectively induces an immune response against immunologically more fit variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, the immunity induced by the booster vaccination is transient and gradually declines over time.COVID-19 vaccines developed in response to the ongoing pandemic have shown significant efficiency in controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection rate and related mortality at the initial phase of worldwide vaccine deployment. However, with the emergence of immunologically more aggressive viral variants such as the delta and omicron, a decline in vaccine efficacy has been observed worldwide.The majority of COVID-19 vaccines comprise a two-dose regimen administered at a fixed interval. However, given the waning vaccine efficacy, a third booster has been introduced in the mass vaccination programs. Studies conducted at real-world setups have shown that the third booster is highly effective against delta and omicron infections and related disease severity, hospitalization, and death.In the current study, scientists have evaluated the long-term efficacy of the third booster dose of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer/BioNTech) in older adults.Regarding cellular immune response, a robust and durable T cell response was observed at five months post-primary vaccination compared to two months. After one month of booster vaccination, a significant induction in CD4 type 1 T helper cell response was observed. After booster vaccination, only 12% and 6% of participants developed CD8 and CD4 type 1 T helper cell responses, respectively.The overall T cell response remained unchanged four months after booster vaccination. However, about 50%, 43%, and 84% of participants showed a decline in CD8 type 1 T helper cell, CD4 type 1 T helper cell, and CD4 type 2 T helper cell responses, respectively. In addition, after four months of booster vaccination, about 25%, 18%, and 53% of participants showed lower CD8 type 1 T helper cell, CD4 type 1 T helper cell, and CD4 type 2 T helper cell responses, respectively, compared to after five months of primary vaccination. The study reveals that the third booster dose of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is capable of inducing a robust but transient immune response in older adults. However, a rapidly waning booster vaccination efficacy highlights the need for administering an additional fourth dose to protect older people from severe COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission among asymptomatic cases is lower -In a recent study published in the BMC Medicine journal, researchers at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health explored severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission among asymptomatic cases.Systematic reviews showed that 15% to 25% of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals are asymptomatic. However, little is understood about the SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility by these individuals. Previous meta-analyses have determined that the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic cases is three to four times lower than that of symptomatic carriers. Research employing large asymptomatic cohorts is needed to determine whether these findings hold true for a larger proportion of patients and if coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic individuals have a higher potential of causing asymptomatic cases.In the present study, researchers examined whether SARS-CoV-2 asymptomatic cases are less likely to transmit the virus as compared to symptomatic instances and whether asymptomatic individuals are more likely to be asymptomatic when their presumed infector is asymptomatic. In the study period, the contact tracing system reported 27,473 COVID-19-positive cases having identified close contacts. A total of 3,765 patients were deemed asymptomatic. The team also noted that asymptomatic cases had a higher chance of being younger, men, and had received fewer vaccine doses than symptomatic cases when the individuals were diagnosed COVID-19 positive. Almost 78% of the 164,153 reported close contacts were analyzed, with 17% testing positive within 14 days of the index cases testing SARS-CoV-2 positive. Within two weeks of the index case exhibiting symptoms, 18% of all the close contacts were diagnosed with COVID-19. In contrast, when the index case was asymptomatic, the secondary attack incidence was much lower at 13%, resulting in a 28% reduced relative risk of testing COVID-19 positive when a person was identified as being in close contact with an asymptomatic index versus a symptomatic index. Considering the age corresponding to each index case, the team also computed the secondary attack rate (SAR-14) for various age groups. Apart from the youngest age group between zero and nine years, the calculated SAR-14 was greater for symptomatic indexes than asymptomatic indexes throughout all age groups. There were no significant differences between age groups between 40 to 49 years and over 70 years. In addition, the team investigated whether infected individuals had a higher chance of remaining asymptomatic if their presumed infector was also asymptomatic. This analysis included all close contacts diagnosed positive within 14 days of a positive index case. This resulted in 7,786 index cases and 11,192 positive close contacts. Approximately 16% of all close contacts who tested COVID-19 positive within 14 days were asymptomatic. This proportion was much greater when the index case was asymptomatic as opposed to symptomatic. Consequently, these infected individuals had more than twice the likelihood of remaining asymptomatic. Overall, the study finding showed that SARS-CoV-2 transmission was roughly 30% lower among asymptomatic individuals compared to symptomatic individuals. Furthermore, the team noted that infected individuals were three times more likely to stay asymptomatic if their corresponding index cases were asymptomatic than symptomatic.

COVID-19 carries a much higher risk of epilepsy and seizures than influenza - After retrospectively analyzing the data of over 300,000 people, researchers in a recentNeurology journal paper report that a diagnosis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was associated with a greater risk of both seizures and epilepsy as compared to those diagnosed with influenza infection. To date, COVID-19, caused by infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has claimed over 6.6 million lives. In addition to its high mortality rate, COVID-19 is also associated with significant morbidity, particularly among patients who experience severe symptoms and are hospitalized due to this infection.In fact, many people hospitalized due to COVID-19 report neurological symptoms, the most common of which include muscle aches, headaches, dizziness, confusion, and altered taste and smell. In some severe cases, COVID-19 has also been associated with seizures and strokes; however, these events are rare, with a seizure rate of about 1%.Although researchers previously thought that SARS-CoV-2 was capable of passing through the blood-brain barrier (BBB) to directly cause damage to the central nervous system (CNS), cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples of COVID-19 patients experiencing neurological symptoms have failed to exhibit the presence of viral genetic material.A growing body of evidence suggests that immune activation and subsequent inflammation by the CNS is likely responsible for the neurological effects of COVID-19. More specifically, CSF samples obtained from acute COVID-19 patients were positive for interferon-regulated genes in dendritic cells, activated T-cells and natural killer (NK) cells, as well as increased levels of both interleukin-1 (IL-1) and IL-12 as compared to blood plasma levels.Autopsy studies conducted on patients who have died from acute COVID-19 have also reported the accumulation of macrophages, CD8+ T-cells in perivascular regions, as well as widespread microglial activation. These findings suggest that despite the absence of SARS-CoV-2 within the CNS, the widespread inflammatory response and cytokine stormcaused by COVID-19 likely upregulates the trafficking of these inflammatory molecules into the CNS.

Research sheds light on cardiac pathology mechanisms of COVID-19 In a recent study published in the journal Angiogenesis, a team of researchers compared cardiac autopsy samples from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive cases with age-matched samples from influenza hemagglutinin 1 neuraminidase 1 (H1N1) cases, non-influenza lymphocytic myocarditis cases, and heart tissue with no inflammation to understand the mechanisms underlying the pathology of the cardiac complications during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Although COVID-19 is predominantly a respiratory disease, the clinical outcomes of severe SARS-CoV-2 infections have been seen to affect multiple organ systems. Endothelial dysfunction, micro thrombosis, and hypercoagulation associated with myocarditis-like presentations of impaired cardiac function have been observed in 20% to 30% of hospitalized COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, vascular remodeling and microthrombi formation are associated with increased cardiac serum markers, severe disease, and mortality.Despite the rising number of COVID-19 cases with clinical outcomes involving cardiac complications, the mechanisms of cardiac pathology and heart injury during severe SARS-CoV-2 infections remain unclear. Current hypotheses include myocardial and vascular wall damage due to cytokine storm, which is the increased release of proinflammatory cytokines such as interleukins (IL) 1 and 6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), and interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), and the presence of SARS-CoV-2 viral particles in cardiomyocytes and cardiac macrophages.Since the cardiac symptoms observed in COVID-19 are similar to other viral myocarditis forms, comparing cardiac autopsy tissue from these diseases might shed light on the cardiac pathology mechanisms of COVID-19.In the present study, the team analyzed 24 cardiac autopsy tissue samples from SARS-CoV-2 mortality cases and compared them to the closest sex, age, and disease severity-matched archived heart tissue from 16 influenza H1N1 and eight non-H1N1 and non­- SARS-CoV-2 related myocarditis mortalities. Heart tissue samples from nine non-infectious and non-inflammatory disease-related heart surgeries were used as control.A significant number of cases in each of the groups had exhibited serum markers indicating cardiac involvement, such as troponin, creatine kinase myocardial band (CK-MB), N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), left or right ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF/RVEF), and abnormalities in the echocardiograph.The results indicated that none of the COVID-19 heart tissue samples could be diagnosed as viral myocarditis based on histopathology. However, compared to the heart tissue from influenza and non- SARS-CoV-2 myocarditis patients, the COVID-19 cardiac autopsy tissue showed an increase in the perivascular cluster of differentiation molecule 11b (CD11b)/angiopoietin-1 receptor (TIE2) presenting macrophages during multiplex immunohistochemistry.Furthermore, heart tissue from COVID-19 patients also exhibited gene expression of epithelial-mesenchymal transition and angiogenesis factors, which was not observed in the cardiac tissue from the other groups. This supported the hypothesis that cytokine storm during COVID-19 is associated with endothelial damage and myocardial edema. In addition, increased intussusceptive angiogenesis and multifocal thrombi in COVID-19 cardiac tissue were identified as evidence of vascular remodeling. Other cardiovascular diseases such as atherosclerosis, viral myocarditis due to parvovirus B19, inflammatory diseases, and cancers also exhibit intussusceptive angiogenesis.

Pfizer says omicron booster is better against new subvariants like BQ.1.1 than old shots - Pfizer said its omicron booster triggers a stronger immune response against a number of emerging Covid subvariants circulating in the U.S. The booster triggered more antibodies against omicron sublineages BQ.1.1, BA.4.6, BA.2.75.2 and XBB.1 in adults older than 55 compared with a fourth dose of the original vaccines, according to new data released by the company on Friday. Antibodies are a key part of the immune system that block the virus from invading cells. Pfizer developed its booster against omicron BA.5 at the request of the Food and Drug Administration. BA.5 was the dominant strain of Covid in the U.S. over the summer, but is now fading away as subvariants such as BQ.1.1. start becoming more dominant. BQ.1.1 and its sibling BQ.1 are causing about 48% of new infections in the U.S. right now, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. BA.5, meanwhile, has declined to about 25% of new Covid cases. BA.4.6 and BA.2.75.2 still make up a very small proportion of new infections, while XBB.1 is not present in significant enough numbers to show up in the data yet. Antibodies against BQ.1.1 were about nine times higher in people who received an omicron booster, while they were about two times higher in those who received a fourth dose of the original vaccine. Among the emerging subvariants, the omicron booster elicited the strongest immune response against BA.4.6 with antibodies 11 times higher, and the weakest response against XBB.1 with antibodies about five times higher. The booster triggers the strongest immune response against omicron BA.5, the variant it was designed against, with antibodies increasing 13 times in people older than 55, according to data previously released by Pfizer. Moderna on Monday said its omicron booster induces an immune response against BQ.1.1 though the company didn't provide specifics. U.S. health officials have said the boosters should provide better protection against the emerging subvariants because they are all omicron and many are descended from BA.5.

More adverse reactions following bivalent COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccine - A recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server examined adverse reactions after administration of a bivalent BNT162b2 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine booster.Vaccination is critical against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but emerging mutant variants of the virus impair the effectiveness of vaccines based on the original/wildtype SARS-CoV-2. Consequently, bivalent vaccines with spike messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) of wildtype and Omicron BA.1 or BA.4/5 variant have been developed. Reports suggest that the bivalent mRNA-1273.214 vaccine based on the Wuhan-Hu-1 and Omicron BA.1 spike mRNA has a slightly higher rate of adverse reactions. Moreover, no evidence of adverse reactions after bivalent COVID-19 vaccination is available due to approval without additional clinical studies. In the present study, researchers in Germany and the United Kingdom evaluated adverse reactions, pro re nata (PRN) medication intake, and the ability to work after the second booster vaccination (fourth dose) among healthcare workers (HCWs). All participants had been previously administered European Medicines Agency (EMA)-approved primary COVID-19 immunization, followed by subsequent mRNA vaccine-based booster dose.The second booster vaccine was either the monovalent BNT162b2 vaccine or the bivalent BNT162b2 vaccine with spike mRNA of wildtype and Omicron BA.4/5 variant. Participants who received a different vaccine as the second booster dose and those who received a concurrent influenza vaccination were excluded from the study. Conclusions: The researchers observed that HCWs receiving the bivalent BNT162b2 wildtype/Omicron BA.4/5 vaccine as the second booster shot showed a higher prevalence of adverse reactions than monovalent vaccine-boosted HCWs. Notably, the interval between the first and second booster administration was 193 days for monovalent vaccine recipients and 322 days for bivalent vaccine recipients.Furthermore, HCWs reported increased PRN medication intake and inability to work following bivalent booster dose administration. The study’s limitations include its retrospective questionnaire-based design and the lack of blinding and randomization. Overall, these findings may help inform clinical decisions regarding monovalent and bivalent vaccination.

Study identifies risk factors and symptom clusters associated with long-COVID - A recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server evaluated risk factors associated with long COVID. In the present study, researchers at Brighton and Sussex Medical School and the University of Sussex evaluated risk factors associated with long COVID and determined if data from the ZOE symptom tracker app provided evidence of different long COVID sub-types. Users of the ZOE COVID-19 symptom tracker app receive daily prompts asking them to log symptoms. Data entered by users during app registration and daily entries were used for analyses. Participants were required to have logged on for a minimum of 120 days overall, tested SARS-CoV-2-positive between July 1 and December 11, 2020, with a body mass index (BMI) between 15 and 55, and logged within seven days of the positive test. In addition, the sampled population was tested for selection bias against a reference sample that included anyone who logged on at least 120 days and tested positive from July 1, 2020, to January 1, 2021. The authors defined long COVID as experiencing a statistically more significant proportion of negative health status during weeks 12 to 15 post-COVID-19 relative to weeks 2 to 12 pre-COVID-19. Two-tailed Proportions Z test was used for categorical data, and the two-tailed Mann-Whitney U test was used for continuous data for univariate analysis of risk factors. In addition, logistic regression with LASSO penalization was used to evaluate multiple predictors. The researchers identified 4,040 app users after applying eligibility filters. Most app users were female (59.5%) and white (97.5%). Participants mostly lived in areas of higher income levels. 13.6% of the sample satisfied the criteria set for long COVID; 15.1% of the long COVID cohort had no symptoms when testing SARS-CoV-2-positive. Participants in the long COVID cohort initially recovered from symptoms within three to four weeks of the positive test. Univariate analyses revealed a significant association between long COVID and female sex, hay fever, prior lung disease, asthma, intake of vitamin D or other vitamins, and previous limited activity. There was a weak association of long COVID with age and BMI. Symptoms during weeks 0 to 8 post-infection strongly predicted long COVID. Olfactory issues and fatigue were the strong predictors of long COVID from weeks 4-6 onwards. The authors observed a positive association between long COVID and pre-existing medical conditions for all subjects up to 70 years but a negative association for those above 70 years. The multivariable model run with demographics and medical history retained gender, limited activity, vitamin D intake but not others, and baseline health status. The retained variables in the model with symptom data were the same as the model without symptom data, except for the addition of max symptom score in the first two weeks post-infection. Conclusions: The authors identified the female sex, pre-existing medical conditions, limited physical activity before COVID-19, and more symptoms during COVID-19 as factors associated with an increased risk of progressing to long COVID after 12 weeks of COVID-19. The accuracy of prediction of long COVID was 69% at the onset of COVID-19, and 77% after eight weeks of symptoms, with the highest error rate in those with asymptomatic infection.

Comparing post–COVID-19 symptoms two years after SARS-CoV-2 infection -In a recent study published in JAMA Network Open, researchers compared the presence of post–coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms among hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients in Spain. Additionally, the researchers identified potential risk factors associated with developing post–COVID-19 symptoms two years after acute severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.Many countries are optimistic that the COVID-19 pandemic is turning into an endemic. However, the occurrence or persistence of symptoms after the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection, colloquially called 'long COVID', is the new pressing issue that demands the attention of researchers and governments alike.Studies have reported over 100 post–COVID-19 symptoms affecting multiple human organs (e.g., cardiovascular, neurologic, respiratory, and musculoskeletal). Several reviews have evidenced that people experiencing post–COVID-19 symptoms have worsened health-related quality of life. According to the authors, this study is the largest follow-up comparison between hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients. Its findings showed the presence of at least one post–COVID-19 symptom in 59.7% and 67.5% of hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients, respectively, two years after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Another study by Huang et al. also showed that 55% of hospitalized patients exhibited post–COVID-19 symptoms two years after hospital discharge. However, there isn't another study to directly compare this study's data for nonhospitalized patients. The researchers noted that dyspnea and anosmia were the most prevalent COVID-19–associated symptoms at onset among hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients, respectively. While the former is an annoying symptom experienced during severe illness, the latter delineates COVID-19 from clinical manifestations of other respiratory infections. Also, people experiencing anosmia often did not seek hospital admission. Fatigue, like musculoskeletal pain, is the most prevalent symptom in the first year following SARS-CoV-2 infection, establishing its association with a higher post–COVID-19 burden. Studies propose that post–COVID-19 fatigue shares features with myalgic encephalomyelitis or chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). Analysis of the exponential recovery curve revealed that dyspnea reduced in the years following COVID-19. However, intriguingly, fatigue did not reduce but persisted two years after COVID-19, indicating that it is the most prevalent and long-lasting post–COVID-19 symptom. A study by Estiri et al. suggested that female sex and count of COVID-19 onset symptoms at hospital admission, but not disease severity were potential risk factors for long COVID. The researchers did not identify these risk factors in a hospitalized cohort of this study because preexisting medical comorbidities were the only variable associated with post–COVID-19 fatigue and dyspnea. Instead, they observed that the number of symptoms in the acute phase was a risk factor for post–COVID-19 fatigue among nonhospitalized patients. A possible explanation could be that those with acute infection had a higher viral load, which is associated with a stronger immune response, which, in turn, facilitated the development of long COVID.

Long-COVID symptoms worsened by stressful events - A recent study published in the Journal of Neurological Sciences reported that life stressors impact post-acute symptoms and long-term outcomes after hospitalization for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) have been observed in 25% to 69% of non-hospitalized patients and 33% to 90% of hospitalized patients. The variable prevalence could stem from differences in study design, symptoms, and assessment timing. Notwithstanding the numerous studies reporting the prevalence of post-COVID-19 sequelae, there is limited data on predictors of long-term quality of life and cognitive and functional outcomes.In the present study, researchers prospectively examined the impact of demographics, hospital clinical variables, pre-COVID-19 comorbid conditions, and life stressors on six-month and one-year outcome metrics post-COVID-19 hospitalization. This observational study was conducted on patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from March 10 to May 20, 2022. Follow-up interviews were conducted six months and one year after the initial COVID-19 diagnosis. Subjects were eligible if they were 18 years or older and hospitalized with a positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, with consent for the follow-up interview. Individuals were excluded if evaluated in the emergency room or outpatient setting. Data on demographics, medical/neurologic history, new in-hospital neurologic or other complications, and medications used during acute COVID-19, were recorded. Disease severity was graded based on ventilation requirement and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score. The modified Rankin scale (mRS) was used to assess subjects' pre-COVID-19 baseline functional status. Longitudinal assessments were conducted via telephonic interviews. Contact was attempted at six and 12 months post-initial COVID-19 diagnosis. Functional and disability status was assessed using the mRS; cognitive outcomes were examined with the telephone Montreal Cognitive Assessment (t-MoCA).Follow-up interview attempts were made on 790 and 590 patients at six and 12 months, respectively. Of these, only 382 (48%) and 242 (41%) patients completed interviews at six and 12 months, respectively. Participants who completed only the six-month interview were older (median age: 69 years) than those completing the 12-month (65 years) interview. No differences were found in sex, education level, race, pre-COVID-19 mRS scores, history of dementia/psychiatric disease, COVID-19 severity, and the rates of neurologic complications during hospitalization between patients who completed interviews at six months and 12 months. Headache, anxiety, cognitive abnormalities, depression, fatigue, and sleep disturbances were the common neurologic symptoms at 12 months. About 90% of patients at six months and 87% at 12 months showed abnormalities on at least one assessed metric, with abnormalities on the mRS and t-MoCA being the most prevalent. A small but significant correlation was observed between post-acute COVID-19 symptoms and NeuroQoL anxiety scores ≥ 60. In addition, the authors noted an association of older age with poor mRS, t-MoCA scores, and Barthel Index at both time points and with NeuroQoL depression scores at one year. The female sex was linked to elevated anxiety scores at one year and poor Barthel Index at six and 12 months. Neurologic complications such as hypoxic-ischemic brain injury and toxic metabolic encephalopathy strongly predicted poor Barthel Index and mRS at six and 12 months and worse fatigue and depression scores at one year. Poor SOFA scores and mechanical ventilation predicted a poor Barthel Index at six months. The researchers did not find any consistent effect of COVID-19 medications on outcome metrics. However, more than 50% of participants reported having experienced a minimum of one life stressor in the month preceding the follow-up at 12 months. New personal illness, social isolation, financial insecurity, and illness/death of a close acquaintance were the most common life stressors. The presence of stressors was strongly linked to post-acute COVID-19 symptoms and poor NeuroQoL scores. There was a significant association between food and financial insecurity, new disability/death of close contact, social isolation, and personal illness with worse NeuroQoL metrics. In contrast, new disability and personal illness were associated with Barthel Index and mRS.

What is the immune protection generated by SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 against Omicron BA.4 and BA.5? - In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers evaluated immune protection conferred by previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant and Omicron BA.1/BA.2 subvariant infections and updated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against Omicron BA.4/5 infections and associated hospitalizations.In the present retrospective cohort study, researchers assessed immunity levels against Omicron BA.4/5 infections and hospitalizations generated by previous Delta and BA.1/BA.2 infections.The study comprised Cleveland clinic healthcare system patients with prior history of polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed Delta variant or Omicron BA.1/BA.2 subvariant infections between 1 July 2021 and 18 August 2022 who were retested during BA.4/5 predominance (between 25 June 2022 and 18 August 2022). All patients were aged ≥18 years.PF (preventable fraction) values were obtained by dividing the infection/hospital admission rate for previously SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals by that for previously SARS-CoV-2-negative individuals by patient age. In total, 20,987 COVID-19 patients met the eligibility criteria, among whom the mean age was 59 years, and 57% were women. In times of Delta predominance, 15,658 individuals underwent PCR testing, among whom 15.0% were SARS-CoV-2-positive. During the predominance of Omicron BA.1/BA.2, 10,545 individuals underwent PCR testing, among whom 18% tested SARS-CoV-2-positive. On the whole, 17% of previously infected individuals were SARS-CoV-2-positive during Omicron BA.4/5 predominance. Prior Delta infections did not protect against Omicron BA.4/5 infections (PF 12%) and conferred minimal immune protection against hospital admissions (PF 11%). On the contrary, previous BA.1/BA.2 infections conferred 46% immune protection against BA.4/5 infections and 19% protection against hospital admissions. Updated vaccines conferred modest levels of protection against BA.4/5 infections and associated hospital admissions. Adults aged ≥65 years with prior Omicron BA.1/BA.2 infections derived greater immune protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfections with Omicron BA.4/5 compared to young adults. The unexpected age-related finding could be explained based on differences in social conduct. SARS-CoV-2-infected elders may take greater precautions to avoid reinfections, whereas young individuals may not do so, placing them at an elevated risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-exposure and reinfection. However, there were no age-stratified significant differences with previous Delta infections, indicating that the findings were not entirely based on social behavior. A possible explanation is that SARS-CoV-2 infections may be dose-dependent. The behavior of elder individuals might have decreased the inoculum size. Since the individuals have been infected with BA.1/BA.2 and had some immune protection and immunity, they avoided reinfection. In contrast, elders previously infected with Delta were vulnerable to even minor SARS-CoV-2 exposures. Alternatively, the effects of infection on conduct might have been short-term. The findings showed that previous BA.1/BA.2 infections and updated vaccines conferred modest immune protection against BA.4/5 infections and hospital admissions. In contrast, previous Delta infections conferred minimal immune protection against hospital admissions and no protection against reinfections with the BA.4/5 variant.

 It’s Really, Really Worth Trying to Avoid Getting COVID Multiple Times A new study found people are more likely to develop long COVID or other serious health problems if they’re infected more than once. The potential risks of COVID reinfection are very real, regardless of your vaccination status, new research suggests. Having COVID more than once boosts your risk of hospitalization, developing long COVID, or even dying from the virus, according to a large new study published in the journal Nature Medicine.The goal of the research was to determine whether the risk of complications goes up the more you’re infected with the virus, according to lead study author Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, assistant professor at the School of Medicine at Washington University in St. Louis. “The answer is absolutely yes,” he tells SELF.For the study, Dr. Al-Aly’s team used data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). The researchers included 519,767 people who were initially infected and tested positive for COVID between March 1, 2020, and April 6, 2022. Of those people, 40,947 were reinfected between June 1, 2020, and June 25, 2022. The infected and reinfected groups were compared to a control group of more than 5.3 million people.What they concluded is harrowing: People who are infected with COVID two or more times are twice as likely to die for any reason; three times as likely to need hospitalization; three times as likely to have lung problems; three times as likely to have cardiovascular problems; and three times as likely to have a blood clot. They’re also more likely to experience fatigue, gastrointestinal disorders, kidney disorders, mental health disorders, diabetes, musculoskeletal disorders, and neurological disorders. The risk of developing complications from COVID is likely highest during the first 30 days of the infection, Dr. Al-Aly says.It could be that some people’s risk of these complications is higher than others, but Dr. Al-Aly’s team didn’t do subgroup analyses, he says—meaning, experts don’t yet know if these health issues are more or less of a threat to certain people after reinfection. Regardless, the study underscores that everyone should be especially cautious of long COVID symptoms after testing positive for the virus, especially after a reinfection, Thomas Russo, MD, an infectious disease expert at the University of Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, tells SELF.While more research needs to be done, the study helps solidify what doctors and scientists have been trying to communicate for years now, Dr. Al-Aly says: “COVID is absolutely not a common cold, not even a flu. This is far more serious than that,” he explains. “If you had it before, you’re not sealed from adverse events.” Though the study included a large number of people, it’s worth mentioning that the participant pool may not reflect the diversity in the US (or the world), Dr. Russo says, since people in the VA database are more likely to be cis men and have underlying health problems. Only about 10% of study participants were women, and they weren’t divided into subgroups by age, race, or sex assigned at birth. The study authors also acknowledged that the way we think about reinfections will likely change as more research on the topic is explored.

Keep masking and social distancing - It’s tempting to let your guard down, now that vaccination has reduced the prevalence of COVID, but don’t. Just don’t. Getting it once is a bad idea, even if it doesn’t kill you. And getting it again is worse.“During the past few months, there’s been an air of invincibility among people who have had COVID-19 or their vaccinations and boosters, and especially among people who have had an infection and also received vaccines; some people started referring to these individuals as having a sort of superimmunity to the virus,” said senior author Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, a clinical epidemiologist at the School of Medicine. “Without ambiguity, our research showed that getting an infection a second, third or fourth time contributes to additional health risks in the acute phase, meaning the first 30 days after infection, and in the months beyond, meaning the long COVID phase.”Additionally, the study indicated that the risk seems to increase with each infection. “This means that even if you’ve had two COVID-19 infections, it’s better to avoid a third,” Al-Aly said. “And if you’ve had three infections, it’s best to avoid the fourth.” see: “Repeat COVID-19 infections increase risk of organ failure, death,” –Washington University in St. Louis

Fauci Warns About BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 COVID-19 Variants – What to Know and How to Stay Safe - It appears that we are recognizing new COVID-19 variants faster than ever before. This is, at least in part, likely due to a greater ability to monitor and sequence virus samples around the world. Identification of new variants is always cause for concern, considering that Delta was a new variant once, but are not a cause for panic. Despite predictions by a variety of people that any day now the world will be devastated by a new variant, this has yet to happen. Yet, those sensationalists do serve to remind us that COVID-19 can still have nasty surprises for us in the future. Right now, the main variant in the United States is BA.5, but other strains are on the rise. BA.4.6 is still behind but gaining ground for percentage of cases seen. Similarly, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are seeing rapid increases in percentage of cases on a regional basis. Separating hype from actual science has been difficult during the past 3 years, but in general variants of concern are ones with high infectivity and multiple mutations in the spike protein and other key regions. These mutations can impact the virus’ ability to dodge the human immune system and effect which areas of the body are most involved along with severity of the infection. Despite media generated names, such as “nightmare” variant and other concerns, there is no actual evidence that any of the variants being watched right now cause more severe disease. The downside is that mutations in variants such as BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and BF.7 may cause them to be resistant to some treatments, including bebtelovimab, tixagevimab, and cilgavimab. Anything that limits our options for treatment makes patient care more complicated due to potential contraindications seen with different available treatments. The XBB variant is causing challenges in Singapore where reinfection rates have increased from 5% to 17%, allegedly due to this variant, suggesting some degree of immune escape by XBB. What may be even more challenging for the world’s effort to both combat and recover from COVID-19 is variant splintering. Although at its basis, this is nothing different from what we observed throughout the pandemic, it has taken on a different scale. Splintering refers to the dominance of different variants in different parts of the world. In the past, we may have seen a variant first detected in South Africa or India spread throughout Europe and then the United States. A small number of variants—or even just a single variant—was thought to be responsible for most COVID-19 infections worldwide at any one time. However, we are now seeing entire countries or regions with dominant strains not yet impacting other portions of the world. For example, Singapore is wrestling with XBB while most infections in the United States are still caused by BA.5. This can mean vaccine and treatment efficacy may differ from country to country, or at least region to region, at any one time. Additionally, population immunity can differ from one region to another, making areas more susceptible to new variants brought in from abroad. Responding to these variants may now be even more complicated for drug-makers as they face an ever-changing game board of different variants with divergent mutations in the virus.

New COVID-19 subvariants replace BA.5 as dominant strains in U.S.-Xinhua (Xinhua) -- New Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 accounted for half of new COVID-19 cases in the United States in the latest week, overtaking BA.5 to be the dominant strains in the country, according to estimates published Friday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). BQ.1.1 made up about 24.2 percent of circulating variants in the week ending Nov. 19, and BQ.1 was estimated to make up 25.5 percent, according to CDC data. The two new variants have been growing especially fast since October. At the beginning of October, each one accounted for about 1 percent of new infections in the United States, but they have been roughly doubling in prevalence each week. The two variants are descendants of Omicron's BA.5 subvariant. The BA.5 accounted for 24 percent of new infections in the latest week, CDC data showed. It is the first time since July that the BA.5 variant has lost its dominance in new infections in the United States.

BQ.1, BQ.1.1 push BA.5 out as the dominant omicron subvariant in U.S. - The COVID-19 omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have pushed the BA.5 subvariant out of its place as the dominant version of the coronavirus in the U.S., eliciting concerns from health experts as vaccine booster uptake remains low and evidence emerges of treatments being less effective. As of this week, the BA.5 omicron subvariant now accounts for about a quarter of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S., with BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 each making up roughly an equal proportion of infections. These two subvariants are themselves descended of BA.5 and now account for about 48 percent of cases. For much of 2022, the BA.5 and BA.4 omicron subvariants were the predominant versions of coronavirus infections. However, the COVID-19 virus continues to mutate, resulting in pathogens that appear to be less susceptible to monoclonal antibodies. Earlier this month, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) updated its guidance for the monoclonal antibody bebtelovimab to indicate that BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 showed significant reductions in susceptibility to the treatment. The FDA similarly revised its guidance for Evusheld, a combination of two monoclonal antibodies, to note significant reduction in susceptibility when it came to BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. This treatment has largely been used for those with compromised immune systems who may not develop a strong enough response after vaccination.

Ohio COVID-19 deaths suddenly shoot over 100 (WCMH) – The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday reported more than 100 new COVID-19 deaths, but there is a specific reason for the uptick.The previous data reported by ODH for the week of Nov. 10 had just eight deaths from the virus.It drew attention as a low statistic that was previously unseen in 2022, save for when the state health agency paused reporting deaths altogether for two weeks.While the latest death report rose sharply, the state's case count for the week showed a decrease. ODH reported 10,170 new COVID-19 cases for the past week, barely keeping a five-digit case count into mid-November.However, a sudden swarm of deaths in one week wasn't the explanation behind the increase. Ohio health officials first noticed something might be off with the record-low deaths in the previous week."ODH officials double-checked the data, as it appeared low, but it matched the cause-of-death codes we receive from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics," said Ken Gordon, ODH Public Information Officer.However, Gordon told NBC4 it turned out this same agency had a record-keeping error, not ODH. Because of that, they tacked all of the missing deaths from last week into the new report."This week, ODH learned that the NCHS had incorrectly assigned last week’s cause-of-death codes, leading to the low number," Gordon said. "On today’s COVID-19 dashboard, ODH reported 134 deaths, which includes the deaths incorrectly coded last week."In total, the two-week period accounted for 142 deaths. Splitting that amount between the two weeks makes for a consistent average similar to the 71 deaths reported before the error.ODH began reporting COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths and vaccinations weekly instead of daily in mid-March after new infections slowed to a low level after the omicron wave. Over the past week, the state averaged around 1,453 new coronavirus cases per day.Ohio also saw fewer people hospitalized with the virus alongside higher case numbers. The 414 hospitalizations reported by ODH in the past seven days (about 59 per day) make for a sizeable drop from 521 last week, and 538 in the week prior. A total of 6,493 Ohioans started the COVID-19 vaccination process in the past seven days. Another 5,907 finished vaccination by getting their second dose. Around six in 10 Ohioans are partially or fully vaccinated.

7 NE Ohio counties have some of the highest coronavirus spread in the U.S. right now (WJW) — Twenty-four of Ohio’s 88 counties have some of the highest coronavirus transmission nationwide right now, including seven Northeast Ohio counties, federal data shows.Of the more than 3,200 U.S. counties and territorial equivalents, Ashtabula, Erie, Lorain, Mahoning, Medina, Portage and Trumbull are in the top 20% for cases per 100,000 population within the last week, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. All those counties had “high” coronavirus transmission levels for the week ending Nov. 10, the CDC reported.But the high spread hasn’t correlated to higher hospitalization or death rates. In fact, both are down.The number of COVID-positive patients hospitalized in Ohio hasn’t changed from a week ago and is down 8% from three weeks ago, the Ohio Hospital Association reported on Wednesday. There were 898 COVID-19 patients in Ohio hospitals as of Wednesday. That’s down from about 6,700 patients reported during the height of the winter surge in January, but up from the summer lull of just under 300 patients.The state’s weekly COVID-19 death rate is also declining, FOX 8 sister station WCMH reported. Ohio reported its highest death rate in November 2021. But for the week ending Nov. 4, 2022, the Ohio Department of Health reported just eight deaths; it reported 63 deaths the week prior.“Typically, death numbers lag behind the trends in cases and hospitalizations, which both have been trending downward since August,” ODH spokesperson Ken Gordon told WCMH. “In addition to natural progression of disease, coroners and physicians have six months to complete or make changes to death certificates.“Because this is just one week worth of data, we also would caution against reading too much into it until we can study the data over several weeks to understand the trends,” he added. Below is how Ohio counties ranked out of more than 3,200 counties and territorial equivalents nationwide by new cases per 100,000 population — one of the two metrics that factor into their community transmission levels — using data released on Nov. 10. The CDC also reports the number of hospital admissions per 100,000 population, as well as the percentage of inpatient beds being utilized by COVID-19 patients.

 COVID outbreak exposes oppressive conditions for Foxconn workers in China - An outbreak of COVID-19 infections at the massive Foxconn campus at Zhengzhou in China’s Henan province—the world’s largest iPhone plant—has pointed to the repressive conditions enforced by the company in order to churn out phones for Apple. Corporate media outlets internationally, agitating against China’s zero-COVID policy, claimed to raise concerns about the treatment of workers at the facility when numbers of workers, worried about infection, decided to return home on foot. Reuters, for example, claimed that the events at the complex had “come to symbolise worker discontent with harsh COVID curbs.” At the same time, Foxconn’s disregard for employees’ health and living conditions during the outbreak sparked outrage on the internet in China and elsewhere. The Zhengzhou complex, a virtual mini-city, exclusively manufactures iPhones, worth billions of dollars to Apple. Its workforce swells to 350,000 at peak times when a new model is launched. It can mass-produce 500,000 phones a day. For that purpose, lowly-paid workers are crammed into dormitories—eight to a room—in 10- or 12-storey buildings. According to reports, Foxconn’s infections began to emerge as early as October 8, but did not attract attention at that time. At first, the Taiwanese-owned company told the media there were no “symptomatic” infections and tried to mislead workers that no cases had occurred at the facility. Foxconn said production and operations were “relatively stable,” and the three-month output from October to December would have “an unchanged outlook.” According to some social media comments, government officials also covered up the infections. There is still no credible data on infections within Foxconn factories. Instances of employees testing positive increased, but it was not until October 14, when the factory suddenly began to implement “closed management”—ordering workers to remain inside the complex—that workers realised that the pandemic had spread. As the number of cases continued to rise, close contacts had to be isolated in dormitories. The factory stopped dine-in meals from October 19, and instead distributed lunch boxes for workers to take back to the dormitories to eat. Many workers reported that they received spoiled meals, and sometimes there were no lunch boxes, so they had to satisfy their hunger with bread and instant noodles. Several workers said the domestic waste was not disposed of and piled up at dormitory doors. The chaotic management and poor environment created alarm among the workers, who saw fellow workers getting infected. “All this information gives me the feeling that more and more people are infected, but Foxconn does not have enough manpower to deal with it,” one worker told Lifeweek, a Chinese business magazine.What he was afraid of, he said, was what would happen if the pandemic became “uncontrollable.”

China's COVID cases rise, record daily numbers seen in Beijing and other cities - China reported 14,878 new COVID-19 infections for Nov. 12, including a record number of new daily cases in capital city Beijing, as well as in manufacturing hubs Guangzhou and Zhengzhou. The new cases come as industrial activity in Guangzhou and Zhengzhou has been disrupted by restrictions aimed at controlling outbreaks. The number of daily cases in China rose from 11,950 on Nov. 11, the National Health Commission (NHC) said on Sunday. Excluding imported infections, China reported 14,761 new local cases, up from 11,803 a day earlier. Capital city Beijing reported a record 235 new daily cases, up from 116 the previous day, local government data showed. Guangzhou, with a population of nearly 19 million people, reported 3,653 new locally transmitted cases -- also a historic high. That was up from 3,180 cases the day before. Zhengzhou city in the Henan province, home to Apple supplier Foxconn's plant, reported a record 2,642 new daily cases. Foxconn has said it aims to resume full production in the second half of November, after operations were disrupted due to COVID prevention measures. The record highs also come as official media reported that work to remove "pop-up windows" on smartphone health apps that prevent people from entering or returning to Beijing is "in progress" and in effect in many places. The health app requires a negative PCR test to allow unrestricted mobility. NHC announced a slew of changes to China's COVID curbs on Friday, easing some measures on travel, quarantine and lockdowns on businesses. NHC said in a statement on Sunday that the COVID prevention and control situation remained "serious and complex". "It is necessary to maintain strategic focus, and scientifically and accurately do the work of epidemic prevention and control," it said.

New COVID rules in China spur concern - Several Chinese cities began cutting routine community COVID-19 testing on Monday, days after China announced an easing of some of its heavy-handed coronavirus measures, sparking worry in some communities as nationwide cases continued to rise. In the northern city of Shijiazhuang, some families expressed concern about exposing their children to the virus at school, giving excuses such as toothaches or earaches for their children's absence, according to social media posts following a state media report that testing in the city would end. Other cities, including Yanji in the northeast and Hefei in the east, also said they will stop routine community COVID-19 testing, according to official notices, halting a practice that has become a major fiscal burden for communities across China. On Friday, the National Health Commission updated its COVID-19 rules in the most significant easing of curbs yet, describing the changes as an "optimisation" of its measures to soften the impact on people's lives, even as China sticks to its zero-COVID policy nearly three years into the pandemic. The move, which cut quarantine times for close contacts of cases and inbound travelers by two days, to eight days total, was applauded by investors, even though many experts don't expect China to begin significant easing until March or April at the earliest. The changes come even as several major cities including Beijing logged record infections on Monday, posing a challenge for authorities scrambling to quell outbreaks quickly while trying to minimize the impact on people's lives and the economy. Some areas of Beijing are requiring daily tests. The concern and confusion in Shijiazhuang was a top-five trending topic on the Twitter-like Weibo. The city's Communist Party chief, Zhang Chaochao, said its "optimisation" of prevention measures should not be seen as authorities "lying flat" - an expression for inaction - nor is Shijiazhuang moving towards "full liberation" from COVID-19 curbs. The city, about 295 kilometres (183 miles) southwest of Beijing, reported 544 infections for Sunday, only three of which it categorized as symptomatic. "I'm a little scared. In the future, public places will not look at nucleic acid tests, and nucleic acid test points will also be closed, everyone needs to pay for the tests," one Weibo user wrote, referring to Shijiazhuang. Gavekal Research said in a Monday note that it was "curious timing" for China to relax its COVID-19 policies: "The combination of an intensifying outbreak and loosening central requirements has led to debate over whether China is now gradually moving to a de facto policy of tolerating COVID," it said.

Cruise ship with 800 COVID-positive passengers docks in Australia — A cruise ship with hundreds of Covid-positive passengers docked in Sydney, Australia, after being hit by a wave of infections. The Majestic Princess cruise ship was about halfway through a 12-day voyage when an outbreak of cases was noticed, Carnival Australia president Marguerite Fitzgerald told reporters in a media briefing on Saturday. The ship had 4,600 passengers and crew on board at the time, according to CNN affiliate Nine News. After mass testing 3,300 passengers, around 800 tested positive for Covid-19, as did a small number of crew, Fitzgerald said. “All positive cases were mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, and those guests isolated in their staterooms and then separated from non-impacted guests,” parent company Princess Cruises representative Briana Latter told CNN. Cruise operators separately escorted those infected off the ship and advised them to complete a five-day isolation period, CNN affiliate Nine News reported. Those who tested negative were permitted to leave the ship, a New South Wales Health statement read.. “Carnival has advised NSW Health that they are assisting passengers with Covid-19 to make safe onward travel arrangements,” the statement added. Latter said the outbreak aboard the Majestic Princess was “reflective of an increase in community transmission in Australia.” Australia has seen an uptick in Covid cases recently, leading to more caution from within the government. The New South Wales Ministry of Health has recorded 19,800 new cases of Covid-19 and 22 deaths in the past week.

Long Covid: Teen with long Covid misses two years of school - BBC News A previously fit and healthy teenager has missed almost two years of school due to long Covid. Hayden, from Elvington, near Dover, says his life "completely changed" after he caught Covid in December 2020. The 15-year-old once enjoyed sports such as swimming and judo, but must now use a wheelchair, and is largely bedridden with symptoms such as severe fatigue. "I wake up every day and I'm really drained," he said. "It's like I've woken up and I've run a couple of marathons." His mother, Katherine, said it feels like no-one has been able to help her son. She said: "It's like my child is on the subs bench and he's just watching his childhood being played out."Dr David Strain, a senior lecturer at the University of Exeter medical school and an expert on long Covid, said few facts were known about long Covid. He added: "We believe that long Covid for many people is caused by the virus not being cleared fully." This leaves people in a cycle of a "significant flu-like illness". More than 2m people have experienced symptoms of long Covid, government figures show. Within this figure, about 330,000 people say their day-to-day activities have been limited.

German vaccine panel recommends COVID shot only for sick small children - Germany's vaccine advisory panel on Thursday recommended that Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine for children from six months to four years should only be given routinely to those at risk of severe disease from the infection. The head of the panel of 18 appointees, known as STIKO, said there was no clear case for broad use, citing a lack of data to rule out any rare side effects and no signs of the infection causing severe illness in otherwise healthy children. The recommendation also covers a version of Moderna's Spikevax vaccine for the age group but that product is in short supply in Germany at the moment, the expert panel said. "Everything that is done in medicine should have an indication that is as clear as possible," STIKO president Thomas Mertens told journalists in a call. European regulators in October authorised a low-dose version of Pfizer-BioNTech's first-generation vaccine for children from six months to four years, when given as a three-dose series.

COVID pandemic led to surge in superbug infections, EU agency says - Infections from some antibiotic-resistant pathogens known as superbugs have more than doubled in health care facilities in Europe, an EU agency said on Thursday, providing further evidence of the wider impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control report said reported cases of two highly drug-resistant pathogens increased in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, then sharply jumped in 2021. The surge stemmed from outbreaks in intensive care units of hospitals and in European Union countries where antimicrobial-resistant infections were already widespread, ECDC official Dominique Monnet told a news conference. Data showed that in Europe last year, reported cases of the Acinetobacter bacteria group more than doubled compared with pre-pandemic annual numbers. Cases of another bacteria, Klebsiella pneumoniae, which is resistant to last-resort antibiotics, jumped by 31% in 2020 and by 20% in 2021. The report did not include data on how many people died from the infections in 2020 and 2021. Experts say it can be challenging to definitively attribute the cause of death when patients were hospitalised for COVID-19, for example. Some scientists link the rise in hospital-acquired superbug infections during the pandemic to wider antibiotic prescriptions to treat COVID-19 and other bacterial infections during long hospital stays. Monnet said that was "the most plausible hypothesis", but his agency had yet to conduct thorough analysis. He also said the data showed decreases in cases of some other common superbugs in European hospitals. The ECDC believes that is because the COVID crisis led operations to be postponed. The European report is consistent with a trend noted last year in the United States, where government data showed that U.S. deaths from drug-resistant infections jumped 15% in 2020. Drug-resistance evolves through the misuse or overuse of antibiotics. Concerns about it are not new. Experts call superbug infections, including fungal pathogens, a silent pandemic that causes more than a million deaths annually but does not draw attendant focus or funding for research.

G20 Promotes Vaccine Passports for Future Pandemic Response - B20 calls on the G20 to adopt vaccine passports using WHO standards, page 1 - The G20 promotes vaccine passports for future pandemic response following recommendations from the B20 Summit.On the heels of the Business 20 (B20) Summit in Bali where Indonesian Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin called for a “digital health certificate using WHO standards,” the Group of Twenty (G20) called for international collaboration to capitalize on the success of “digital COVID-19 certificates” for future pandemic response.“We support […] efforts to strengthen prevention and response to future pandemics that should capitalize and build on the success of the existing standards and digital COVID-19 certificates” — G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration, 2022“We acknowledge the importance of shared technical standards and verification methods, under the framework of the IHR (2005), to facilitate seamless international travel, interoperability, and recognizing digital solutions and non-digital solutions, including proof of vaccinations,” reads paragraph 23 of the G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration.“We support continued international dialogue and collaboration on the establishment of trusted global digital health networks as part of the efforts to strengthen prevention and response to future pandemics, that should capitalize and build on the success of the existing standards and digital COVID-19 certificates.”“We acknowledge the importance of shared technical standards and verification methods […] to facilitate seamless international travel, interoperability, and recognizing digital solutions and non-digital solutions, including proof of vaccination“Endeavour to move towards interoperability of systems including mechanisms that validate proof of vaccination” — G20 Bali Update, 2022In separate but similar document, the G20 issued an update that adds:“Endeavour to move towards interoperability of systems including mechanisms that validate proof of vaccination, whilst respecting the sovereignty of national health policies, and relevant national regulations such as personal data protection and data-sharing.”The G20’s support for digital health certificates that include proof of vaccination, aka vaccine passports, follows recommendations coming out of the B20 Summit earlier this week.

European study finds hospitalization rates for RSV infections among infants have been higher than expected - A report published this week in the medical journal The Lancet Respiratory Medicine by Dutch and British scientists is the first international study to accurately estimate the health care burden of healthy infants hospitalized with the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The publication is timely in that it arrives amid an epidemic of respiratory infections, particularly RSV, among children across the United States, with a record number of hospital admissions. Their data, gathered from July 2017 to July 2020, showed that one in 56 infants (1.8 percent) across several European countries—Spain, Finland, Netherlands, Scotland, and England—born at term and without any medical co-morbidities like heart, lung, or kidney dysfunctions had been hospitalized for RSV infection before their first birthday, a figure twice as high as they had expected. Most of these infants were, in fact, under three months of age, and one in 18 of these admissions required care in an intensive care unit. As the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has noted, in pre-COVID pandemic periods, upwards of 80,000 children under the age of five are hospitalized in the US annually for RSV. Those at greatest risk from RSV infections include premature infants born before 37 weeks, infants younger than six months of age, as well as those with congenital lung or heart disease who are under two. However, weakened immune systems can contribute to the severity of infections. This fact is critical to appreciate as COVID-19 is known to cause immune dysregulation despite the mildness of the infection. According to published CDC data on COVID seroprevalence (finding of infection through blood tests) among children, as of late August 2022, it is estimated at over 86 percent. Placing this into context, precisely one year previously, in November 2021, that figure was at 43 percent. At least half of COVID infections among children have occurred in the last 12 months. The current seroprevalence for those 0-4 years of age, the most vulnerable to RSV infections, is 81 percent. Despite the repeated dogma that children only have mild disease, evidence is emerging that COVID can cause dysregulation of critical immune cells known as T-cells, which can be prematurely aged through infections with SARS-CoV-2. Not only can these T-cells then lead to unrecognized organ damage, but the exhaustion of those hyperactivated T-cells means they cannot guard against other pathogens. In a report published in January 2022 in Nature Immunology, the authors found that immune dysfunction persisted for at least eight months after COVID, even in mild to moderate disease. In patients with Long COVID, chronic activation of a subset of T-cells persisted, leading to the observation that “SARS-CoV-2 infection exerts unique prolonged residual effects on the innate and adaptive immune systems and that this may be driving the symptomology known as Long COVID.” They summarized, “Our data indicate an ongoing, sustained inflammatory response following even mild-to-moderate acute COVID-19, which is not found following prevalent [non-SARS-CoV2] coronavirus infection ... These observations describe an abnormal immune profile in patients with COVID-19 at extended time points after infection and provide clear support for the existence of a syndrome of Long COVID.”

Study describes distinct pattern of ongoing respiratory syncytial virus transmission in the Netherlands after the COVID-19 pandemic --In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers assessed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the Netherlands. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Netherlands experienced RSV epidemics annually during winter. After the adoption of COVID-19-associated non-pharmaceutical measures (NPIs), RSV was almost absent during the winter of 2020/21. After NPIs were relaxed, diverse patterns of RSV pandemic resurgence were found in several nations. Multiple studies demonstrate that the reopening of schools is linked with an increase in RSV activity. The team launched a prospective, countrywide monitoring program in which data are gathered in real-time on hospitalizations of children due to RSV in 46 hospitals in the Netherlands. In 10 hospitals having RSV testing as a standard of care, clinical patient data were obtained between 3 May 2021 (week 18) and 4 September 2022 (week 35). Data segregated by age were collected between October 2018 and June 2022. All children aged between zero and two years hospitalized due to RSV-bronchiolitis at participating hospitals comprised the study population.Beginning on 24 May 2021 (week 21), an RSV summer outbreak was reported. During the highest week of RSV-bronchiolitis admissions (19 July, week 29), 240 individuals were admitted. Subsequently, continued RSV transmission was found, with weekly RSV-related admissions settling at 50 patients. Furthermore, the team noted that during winters before COVID-19, the number of patients aged less than six months was higher. During the pre-COVID-19 winter seasons of 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, the median age was 69 days. During the summer epidemic, the median age rose to 161 days. During the endemic period between September 2021 and August 2022, the median age reduced to 137 days, although it remained higher than that noted during pre-COVID-19 winters. A model that predicted moderate NPIs with low virus importation and diminishing population immunity against RSV due to low RSV circulation most closely approximated the Dutch situation, which had a major summer epidemic followed by persistent RSV transmission. In this case, the number of RSV hospitalizations among children over a year was anticipated to be greater during the summer epidemic than during the winter. During the subsequent endemic period, this fraction gradually declined. Alternative cases that assumed RSV immunity would not wane failed to produce a summer outbreak in 2021 that was more severe than prior winter epidemics. RSV activity in France and Germany followed a model that anticipated strict NPIs, a high virus importation level, and decreasing immunity following a prolonged duration of low viral exposure. Conclusion: The study findings demonstrated a different pattern of persistent RSV transmission in the Netherlands after an out-of-season RSV outbreak and the relaxation of COVID-19-related NPIs. Unlike adjacent nations, this pattern may be partially explained by "immunity debt," diminishing population immunity following a lengthy period of low RSV exposure. The researchers believe that constant assessment of RSV seasonality utilizing hospital-based data is essential in predicting future RSV epidemics.

Influenza continues spread in Texas after early start to season - Texas’ flu season is off to an early start this year, and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down, public health officials said this week. Texas is one of multiple states throughout the U.S. with a “very high” level of flu activity, Vinny Taneja, director of Tarrant County Public Health, said Tuesday. “I don’t think I’ve seen that in a long time on our flu map,” Taneja said during a commissioners court meeting Tuesday, referencing the maroon color being used to indicate the level of flu in Texas and across much of the southern U.S. Statewide, almost 8% of patients seeking care in outpatient clinics had flu-like symptoms, according to data from the state health department. This metric, which looks at “influenza-like illness,” is the one that most public health officials rely on to indicate how many people are showing up to doctors’ offices with fevers, coughs and sore throats. “It is significantly higher than what we saw at this point in the last few years,” said Dr. Jennifer Shuford, the interim commissioner of the Department of State Health Services, during a Monday press conference. The annual flu season is known for being difficult to predict, Shuford said, so this year’s flu season could continue to get worse, could peak in the next few weeks before dropping, or could peak multiple times over the next few months. Public health officials encouraged Texans to get their seasonal influenza vaccine in addition to the updated COVID-19 bivalent booster to protect against serious illness from bother viruses. In a typical year, only about 50% of Texans get the annual flu shot. The seasonal flu vaccine is recommended for anyone six months of age and older, and particularly for young children, adults 65 years and older, pregnant women, and people with compromised immune systems.

Weekly flu cases, hospitalizations and deaths double for 2nd week in a row - Weekly flu cases, hospitalizations and deaths have nearly doubled for the second week in a row, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.So far this season, there have been at least 2.8 million illnesses, 23,000 hospitalizations and 1,300 deaths from influenza.By comparison, the prior week's estimates had illnesses at 1.6 million, hospitalizations at 13,000 and deaths at 730. Additionally, the cumulative hospitalization rate currently sits at 5 per 100,000, which is the highest at this point in the season since the 2010-11 season, as far back as statistics are available. What's more, 6,465 new patients were admitted to hospital this past week with flu complications, according to the CDC, compared to 4,326 the previous week. Fourteen states -- mostly in the southeast and south-central regions of the U.S. -- as well as New York City and Washington, D.C., are reporting "very high" levels of influenza-like activity. Experts have stressed that getting the flu shot is the best way to protect Americans from severe illness and death, but vaccine uptake has been sluggish in comparison with previous flu seasons during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to CDC data, flu vaccination among children remains similar to last season but is lower than two years ago. As of the week ending Oct. 22, the latest date for which data is available, 24.8% have been vaccinated against flu in comparison with 32.1% at this time in October 2020.

Local hospitals running near capacity as flu, RSV cases rise - Influenza has arrived in Alaska, as the most recent graphical data from the Alaska Division of Public Health shows this year’s flu season is steadily on the rise earlier than it has in recent years. In a public health ECHO held Tuesday, Dr. Joe McLaughlin, Section Chief of Epidemiology said flu rates are highest on the East Coast and southern portions of the lower 48, but that wave will likely spread north. In addition to an early rise in flu cases is a stark jump in Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) infections. “We’re seeing a lot of RSV activity and RSV-associated hospitalizations among children ages less than 18 (years old) this year,” McLaughlin said during the public ECHO. The rise in both flu and RSV cases has put an additional strain on local hospitals already dealing with post-pandemic staffing shortages, which is something that could affect emergency room wait times. “We have heard of facilities in town where wait times have ballooned up to five hours or so,” Jared Kosin, CEO of the Alaska Hospital and Healthcare Association said. “Right now you kind of have a perfect storm potentially, but that happening on a Monday doesn’t mean it’s going to happen on a Tuesday.” Kosin said wait times that long are not common, but also not an unusual occurrence this time of year and that healthcare demands fluctuate daily. He also indicated that the number of patients experiencing hospitalization never really tapered off after COVID-19. “We’ve talked to hospitals across the entire state. Some have experienced really high volumes and patient levels and have had higher wait times in their ERs, some others are totally normal,” Kosin stated. “One day you might have a lot of people in your emergency room waiting to be seen and ultimately get a bed on the floor, and then that night you might discharge several more patients and everything shifts, and it goes from really chaotic and busy to quiet.”

Uptick in flu cases prompts San Diego County hospitals to erect overflow tents to ease ER burden — San Diego County’s early flu season has begun to put enough pressure on local emergency departments that patient care is sometimes spilling into parking lots. Scripps Memorial Hospital Encinitas, Jacobs Medical Center at UCSD Health in La Jolla and Sharp Grossmont Hospital in La Mesa all reported Friday that they have begun using overflow tents outside their normal emergency department buildings to handle a current increase of respiratory illness. The worsening of the overall situation is plain to see in the numbers. About 9% of emergency room patients had flu symptoms last week, up two percentage points from two weeks ago, with COVID-19 symptoms also increasing, though not as quickly, according to the county’s weekly respiratory illness report. It tells only part of the story because it does not include the current increase in activity of respiratory syncytial virus, a cause of the common cold, which is a particular threat to very young children and seniors. As to where the current situation is headed, nobody seems quite sure. Generally, the flu hits hardest from late December through February. But as was the case in the Southern Hemisphere, influenza made itself known in the fall this year. Does that mean that it’s likely to burn itself out by Christmas, following a similar pattern as normal seasons but just shifted earlier this time around? Nobody seems confident they have the answer. “The real question is whether it’s shooting to an early peak or whether it’s going to be a sustained rise, and I don’t think there’s enough evidence right now to really tell,” said Dr. Cameron Kaiser, deputy public health officer for San Diego County. As a result, healthcare providers across the region are planning for the worst and hoping for the best. “The fear is that everything is just sort of bouncing off everything else and once you’ve been through the flu you could still get hit by COVID or whatever other virus you’re going to get,” Sharieff said. “I’m hopeful, but we’re still kind of planning that it’s going to be this way through February.” For the moment, emergency departments are the busiest locations. Scripps hospitals and doctors offices have recorded 1,695 positive flu tests since Sept. 1 compared with 471 during the same span last year. While that has been enough to require using overflow tents to keep up with demand, the executive said that a percentage have been getting ill enough to be admitted to a hospital. Thus far, it has been possible for staff to keep up with the demand made by these cases, but that could change if more staffers end up getting sick and staying home from work.

California child dies of flu and RSV - Flu season has roared to life in California, reaching levels not seen in years and threatening to further strain a healthcare system already contending with an onslaught of RSV cases and still-potent circulation of the coronavirus.Underscoring the worrisome conditions, California Department of Public Health officials on Monday reported the season’s first death of a child under 5 due to flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.“This tragic event serves as a stark reminder that respiratory viruses can be deadly, especially in very young children and infants,” Dr. Tomás Aragón, California’s public health director and health officer, said of the pediatric death.Flu activity was considered high in California over the week ending Nov. 5, the most recent span for which data are available, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s the second-most severe category on the agency’s five-tier scale.Two weeks ago, statewide activity of flu-like illnesses was considered low.The CDC’s assessment is based on monitoring for respiratory illnesses that include a fever plus a cough or sore throat, not just laboratory-confirmed flu cases.California’s latest positivity rate for flu was 14%, well above the levels at this time in each of the past five years, according to the state Department of Public Health. The rate is even worse in L.A. County — 25%, up from 13% last week. So far, California’s flu hot spot has been in the southeastern corner, covering San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Imperial counties, state data show.In a recent communication, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health wrote that healthcare providers “must prepare for the possibility of a severe influenza season this fall and winter.”“All patients — especially those aged 65 years and older — should be urged at every healthcare encounter to get both their influenza vaccine and their updated fall COVID-19 booster as soon as possible,” the message continued.Thirteen flu deaths were reported in California from the start of October through Nov. 5, with eight of them among seniors.

Human case of swine-origin influenza A virus detected in Denmark, according to CDC study - In a recent study published in the Emerging Infectious Disease Journal, researchers detected a swine influenza A virus (IAV)-infected patient in routine surveillance at the National Influenza Center in Denmark. The detected influenza variant appeared distinct from any variant found previously in Denmark. A young man in his 50s, working at a swine abattoir in Denmark, was hospitalized after acute onset of illness on November 24, 2021. He had dizziness in the night, followed by chest pain, pain radiating toward the left arm, diarrhea, and malaise, but no fever. The patient suffered repeated convulsions and had to be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and put on ventilation to cease seizures and manage declining oxygen levels. He had no cardiovascular, kidney, neurological, or other impairment, including pneumonia, that could rationalize his sudden bout of severe illness. However, a pharynx swab sample of the patient tested positive for IAV. Notably, no other coworker at the patient's workplace reported the incidence of influenza. With antiviral medication (oseltamivir) and supportive treatments, the patient's clinical condition improved over the next two days, so he was discharged from the hospital. The researchers submitted the remaining sample material to the Danish National Influenza Center, which confirmed it was positive for the pandemic H1N1 strain. Further analysis by whole-genome sequencing revealed its consensus sequence to be of the H1N1 subtype. Notably, the virus was more similar to swine IAVs than human influenza strains. The team uploaded this sequence to the global initiative on sharing all influenza data (GISAID) database. The sequence had no match to IAV sequences in GISAID, as revealed by the Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST) searches; however, a comparison to in-house sequences of swine influenza viruses from Denmark showed a close resemblance to 2021 swine IAVs. This viral strain had several genetic and antigenic differences from other influenza A viruses detected in Denmark. Also, it had poor reactogenicity to the currently used human seasonal influenza vaccines. Furthermore, its phylogenetic analyses revealed that most gene segments were similar to the H1N1 subtype. On the contrary, its neuraminidase and non-structural segments belonged to the clade 1C avian-like swine influenza A(H1N1) found in Eurasia. Earlier in Denmark, an elderly patient with comorbidities experienced classical influenza-like illness (ILI). However, the reported case in this study was unique because a previously healthy adult experienced severe and sudden illness. Another distinct observation was that this patient experienced convulsions, which are rare in adults and typically accompanied by fever or encephalitis. Therefore, the infecting viral strains in these two cases are likely genetically distinct. Detection of a variant IAV via routine surveillance highlighted the importance of continuous monitoring of both human and swine IAVs with zoonotic potential. Additionally, it underscored the need to promptly take countermeasures for those who come in contact with swine owing to their occupation and experience ILI.

Is Polio Re-Emerging in the US? - The wild poliovirus had been eliminated in the US for more than 4 decades until it resurfaced in July, when the New York State Department of Health reported a case of vaccine-derived poliovirus to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).¹ The patient, a young adult from Rockland County, New York, just outside of New York City, had not been vaccinated.Prior to this case, only 1 other case of vaccine-derived, community-acquired poliovirus had been detected in the US since 1979— a 2005 case involving an infant in Minnesota.² However, unlike that infant, the young adult reported to have poliovirus in July developed paralysis as a result of the infection.In October, the New York State Department of Health announced testing had revealed the presence of poliovirus in wastewater in Rockland County as well as in several surrounding counties and in New York City.³ “Even a single case of paralytic polio represents a public health emergency in the United States,” a subsequent CDC report stated.¹ Accordingly, the New York governor declared a State Disaster Emergency in September 2022 that expanded the network of individuals who can administer the polio vaccine (including emergency medicine workers, midwives, and pharmacists) and required health care providers to submit polio immunization data to the New York State Department of Health to help prioritize vaccination efforts.³Notably, the same vaccine-derived poliovirus strain found in New York City — “a unique recombinant poliovirus lineage” — was also recently found in London sewage, prompting “a rapid public health response, including enhanced surveillance and an inactivated polio vaccine campaign among children aged 1-9 years,” according to research reported in the Lancet in October.⁴As the Lancet article noted, “Early evidence indicates that the vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 strain associated with the polio case in the USA and related type 2 poliovirus isolates found in the New York sewage are genetically linked with the London sewage isolates described here and with type 2 poliovirus isolates recently found in sewage samples from Israel,” where an unvaccinated 3-year-old girl contracted paralytic polio in March.⁵“Actually, there is no clear re-emergence” of polio, said Waleed Javaid, MD, FACP, FIDSA, FSHEA, hospital epidemiologist and director of infection prevention and control at Mount Sinai Downtown in New York, who was interviewed for this article. “There has been 1 case in an unvaccinated individual in a community with low vaccination rates.” Moreover, the type of virus observed in this individual “indicates a possible link to a virus from a vaccine which is not used in the US,” said Dr Javaid.Nevertheless, the CDC appears to see the potential risk for additional cases if not resurgence, given the low vaccination coverage in the patient’s county of residence, and a recent paper noted that poliovirus vaccination rates fall below herd immunity thresholds in nearly one-half of New York counties.^1,6To limit the further spread of the disease, Dr Javaid emphasized the ongoing importance of polio surveillance and review of clinical cases by public health officials, encouraging unvaccinated patients to get vaccinated, and monitoring individuals with polio-like illness.For an in-depth discussion about these emerging developments, we interviewed infectious disease expert Olivia Kates, MD, MA, an infectious disease specialist who teaches at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore.

Ebola death 150 miles from Uganda epicentre sparks fears of spread -A man has died of Ebola about 150 miles away from the epicentre of the outbreak in Uganda, underscoring how quickly cases are spreading.A 45-year-old man died in the Jinja district in eastern Uganda near the source of the Nile, the country’s health minister, Dr Jane Ruth Aceng, said on Sunday.It is the first time the outbreak has spread to a new region from the epicentre of the outbreak in central Uganda, where cases have been confined to so far.Dr Aceng said that the man was probably infected by his brother, who had travelled from the capital Kampala to Jinja earlier this month.The brother was sick for ten days before dying, during which time he probably infected the most recent victim.It is unclear how many other people he could have infected during this time but the news raises serious questions about the effectiveness of Uganda’s contact tracers.It comes after The Telegraph reported leaked Ministry of Health modelling last week showing that there will be 500 fatalities by late April, making this outbreak one of the deadliest ever.Since then, MoH officials have denied that they have ever seen the modelling and described the figures as “alarmist”.But officials have refused to give the ‘real’ modelling figures to reporters. One source said they had seen the government using the same document for internal presentations with the projection statistics page removed.There have been increasing signs that the mistakes of secrecy and prevarication which characterised the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in Wuhan are being repeated in Uganda.At least 136 cases and 53 deaths have been confirmed since the hemorrhagic fever was detected in mid-September.The disease has spread across nine districts, including the capital Kampala – an international hub which is home to roughly two million people.The virus circulating in Uganda is the Sudan strain of Ebola, for which there is no proven vaccine, unlike the more common Zaire strain that spread during recent outbreaks in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo.The virus leaves its victims vomiting blood and generally kills about half of those infected.

Ugandan doctors face fear and shortages in Ebola outbreak (Reuters) - When Ebola broke out in Uganda in September, 10 doctors immediately stepped forward to work in an isolation unit at Fort Portal Regional Referral Hospital, but now only three are left. Staff are reluctant to work in the unit for fear of catching the deadly hemorrhagic fever, and also because of exhaustion and delayed wages, said one of the remaining doctors, who asked not to be identified as they were not authorised to talk to media. Two health workers at the hospital in western Uganda have died from Ebola in this outbreak. Nationwide, 15 health workers have tested positive and six have died. The virus circulating in Uganda is the Sudan strain of Ebola, for which there is no proven vaccine. Total recorded cases have reached 141, with 55 dead. "At the beginning the number of health workers willing to work in that unit was good but now we have low coverage. If we get five cases the work we do is overwhelming," said the doctor, who avoids discussing their work for fear of being stigmatised. "But if we all run away all of us will get sick," the doctor said, adding the hospital sometimes lacked fluids essential for treatment. Uganda has one of the world's lowest doctor-to-patient ratios, with one doctor for every 25,000 people, versus the one-to-1,000 ratio recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO and aid groups are providing Uganda with assistance to cope with the Ebola outbreak, and the United States says it has channelled $22 million through local partners. Yet Uganda still faces significant funding shortfalls -- a WHO official said an initial $20 million the government earmarked was burned through in the first month as cases soared. Ugandan health ministry incident commander, Dr. Henry Kyobe Bosa, denied there are staff or resource shortages. Intensive care staff work maximum eight-hour shifts and personnel from Ebola-free regions are rotated in, he said.

As Ebola outbreak grows in Uganda, US ramps up preparedness plans - Uganda has been struggling with an Ebola outbreak for months, and although there have been no suspected or probable Ebola cases identified in the United States, federal and local health officials are working together to prepare for the possibility that the virus will spread across the Atlantic. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response have conducted tabletop exercises with officials from five jurisdictions where airline passengers arriving in the US from Uganda are being funneled, the CDC confirmed Monday. The agency said the exercises involved plans for managing a suspected case in each jurisdiction under three scenarios: when the potential patient is identified at a funneling airport, is identified during state monitoring of returned travelers from Uganda or seeks care at a hospital. Uganda health authorities declared an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in September, and as of early November, 136 confirmed cases, 21 probable cases and 53 confirmed deaths have been identified there, according to the World Health Organization.. Last week, Ugandan Education Minister Janet Museveni announced that schools will end the current term two weeks earlier than scheduled in an effort to minimize contact among students and curb the spread of the virus. “All primary and secondary schools in Uganda are directed to close by November 25th, 2022 for third term holidays as a measure to contain Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in the country,” Museveni said in a statement. Eight students have died from Ebola since September, out of 23 confirmed cases in schools. The general attitude among public health officials in the US is that as the outbreak in Uganda continues, it raises the likelihood of the virus spreading to the United States, said Lori Tremmel Freeman, chief executive officer of the National Association of County and City Health Officials. “It might be just a matter of time,” Freeman said. “That is why every minute right now is being spent to ramp up the preparedness and response in anticipation of that single event occurring. But the more that we put our time and effort into this stage of the crisis, the better off we’ll be when we do get that first case.”

Popular dietary supplement linked to cancer risk, brain metastasis - While previous studies have linked commercial dietary supplements like nicotinamide riboside (NR), a form of vitamin B3, to benefits related to cardiovascular, metabolic and neurological health, new research from the University of Missouri has found NR could actually increase the risk of serious disease, including developing cancer.The international team of researchers led by Elena Goun, an associate professor of chemistry at MU, discovered high levels of NR could not only increase someone's risk of developing triple-negative breast cancer, but also could cause the cancer to metastasize or spread to the brain. Once the cancer reaches the brain, the results are deadly because no viable treatment options exist at this time, said Goun, who is the corresponding author on the study. Some people take them [vitamins and supplements] because they automatically assume that vitamins and supplements only have positive health benefits, but very little is known about how they actually work. Because of this lack of knowledge, we were inspired to study the basic questions surrounding how vitamins and supplements work in the body.""While NR is already being widely used in people and is being investigated in so many ongoing clinical trials for additional applications, much of how NR works is a black box -; it's not understood," Goun said. "So that inspired us to come up with this novel imaging technique based on ultrasensitive bioluminescent imaging that allows quantification of NR levels in real time in a non-invasive manner. The presence of NR is shown with light, and the brighter the light is, the more NR is present."Goun said the findings of the study emphasize the importance of having careful investigations of potential side effects for supplements like NR prior to their use in people who may have different types of health conditions. In the future, Goun would like to provide information that could potentially lead to the development of certain inhibitors to help make cancer therapies like chemotherapy more effective in treating cancer. The key to this approach, Goun said, is to look at it from a personalized medicine standpoint."Not all cancers are the same in every person, especially from the standpoint of metabolic signatures," Goun said. "Often times cancers can even change their metabolism before or after chemotherapy.""A bioluminescent-based probe for in vivo non-invasive monitoring of nicotinamide riboside uptake reveals a link between metastasis and NAD+ metabolism" was published in the Journal of Biosensors and Bioelectronics.

 Sperm count is declining at accelerating rate worldwide: study Sperm count among men worldwide is falling at an accelerated rate after halving over the last 40 years, a large new study said Tuesday, calling for action to stop the decline. The study, led by Israeli... Sperm count among men worldwide is falling at an accelerated rate after halving over the last 40 years, a large new study said Tuesday, calling for action to stop the decline. The study, led by Israeli epidemiologist Hagai Levine, updates 2017 research which had come under scrutiny for only including North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. The new study includes data from more than 57,000 men collected over 223 studies across 53 countries, making it the largest meta-analysis ever conducted on the subject. With the additional new countries, it confirmed the 2017 finding that sperm counts have halved over the last four decades. Between 1973 to 2018, the concentration of sperm in men not known to be infertile fell by more than 51%, from 101.2 million to 49 million sperm per millimetre of semen, the new study found. "Furthermore, data suggest that this worldwide decline is continuing in the 21st century at an accelerated pace," said the study published in the journal Human Reproduction Update. Sperm counts are dropping at a rate of around 1.1 percent a year, the research found. More action and research is urgently needed "to prevent further disruption of male reproductive health," it added. Sperm count is not the only factor that affects fertility -- the speed of sperm movement, which was not measured in the study, also plays a crucial role. Sarah Martins da Silva, an expert in reproductive Medicine at Scotland's University of Dundee not involved in the study, said it showed that the rate of decline in sperm count has doubled since 2000. "And we genuinely don't know why," she added. "Exposure to pollution, plastics, smoking, drugs and prescribed medication, as well as lifestyle, such as obesity and poor diet, have all been suggested to be contributory factors although effects are poorly understood and ill-defined."

‘Pollution affects cognitive abilities of children below 5 years of age’ - The respiratory effects of air pollution on children are evident, however, pollutants such as PM 2.5 can also affect the cognitive abilities of children, say experts. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that in 2016, air pollution-related acute lower respiratory infections killed 600,000 children. About 93% of children under the age of 15 inhale toxic air, affecting their development. The exposure of children to various air pollutants causes neurological and cardiac abnormalities in new-borns since the brain matures during the formative years of childhood.“Studies have shown that it (PM 2.5) can impair verbal and mathematical skills of children, including new learning abilities and prolonged exposure can lead to depression and anxiety. Children and elderly are comparatively more vulnerable and therefore, they need extra care,” Dr Sunil Singla, Director and HoD Neurology, Sanar International Hospitals, Gurugram, told The Sunday Guardian.Giving more details on the kind of pollutants leading to cognitive disabilities Dr Manish Mannan, pediatrics and neonatology, Paras Hospitals told this paper, “The side effects of each pollutant are unique. Pollutants including lead, sulfur dioxide, and others cause neurological issues. Similarly to this, ozone exposure during pregnancy may result in cardiac abnormalities in the fetus.” In the neurons of the brain, pollutants such as PM 2.5, and ozone lead to inflammation that causes neuronal changes in children, and as a result, neurocognitive disorder happens.According to Dr Viswesvaran Balasubramanian, consultant, Interventional Pulmonology and sleep medicine, pollutants alter the neurocognitive behavior in children. When a pregnant woman is exposed to pollutants, such exposure leads to premature birth or pre-term babies and affects the calculative, analytical system of babies leading to suicidal tendencies or depression in life. “Such instances are common in urban areas. Pollutants directly lead to inflammation in the brain or lead to genetic changes in a neural circuit,” he told this paper. While explaining how pollutants affect babies in a womb, Dr Susanta K. Badatya, Consultant Pediatrics, Apollo Cradle Motinagar, told this paper, “During the first two years of life, the brain is in the developing phase so the pollutants transmit from mother to baby through the placenta. As a result of such pollutants, language and communication disorders like Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), Autism, and so on are caused in such scenarios resulting in personality disorder.” A study done by the UN Environment Programme states that children are shorter than adults, which puts them in greater proximity to the ground and to car exhaust pipes. Furthermore, young infants breathe more quickly, which results in them consuming more air in relation to their body weight. According to the study, kids strolling along busy highways could be subjected to up to a third more air pollution than adults. The negative impact of air pollution is both short-term and long-term. Study shows that male children are more vulnerable due to hormonal pathways, however, conclusive proof is yet to be established. Experts have claimed that the side effects are to be seen over a year and currently, there are more studies to be done on this.

Tiny Soot Particles from Fossil Fuel Combustion Kill Thousands Annually. Activists Now Want Biden to Impose Tougher Standards - A coalition of environmental activists and advocacy groups is urging the Biden administration to toughen federal regulations around soot pollution, a step that they said could prevent thousands of deaths each year from respiratory disorders.The coalition, organized by the Climate Action Campaign, drafted a letter to President Joe Biden earlier this week calling on federal officials to institute the most rigorous air quality standards for fine particulate matter, or PM 2.5, to denote bits of pollution smaller than 2.5 microns—about one-thirtieth the diameter of a human hair.The current standard for particulate matter from soot pollution is 12 micrograms per cubic meter of air as an annual average. The advocacy groups asked Biden to toughen that standard to 8 micrograms per cubic meter. Soot pollution has been linked to cardiac arrest, asthma attacks and what experts call “premature deaths” from a range of cardiovascular and breathing disorders. Most particulate matter is generated by vehicle exhaust, and emissions from power plants and other industrial operations.“Each day that passes without updated limits is another day that millions of Americans are exposed to unhealthy and potentially dangerous levels of soot pollution,” the advocates wrote in a letter that was signed by more than 150 environmental groups from across the country.The advocates cited a study released earlier this year by the Environmental Defense Fund, which found that as many as 19,600 deaths each year that are attributed to the harms of particulate matter could be avoided.Margie Alt, campaign director of the Climate Action Campaign, noted that the federal standards on soot pollution have not been updated since 2012, and that over the past decade scientists have learned more about the potential adverse health effects related to particulate matter.“We know the science is better and we know the technology is better,” Alt said in an interview. “We know that exposure to soot leads to increased mortality, leads to more hospitalizations and more visits to the emergency room. Asthma is the most obvious disease that’s triggered by it, but it can also trigger heart attacks and strokes and Parkinson’s and COPD”—chronic obstructive pulmonary disease—“and risk for preterm births and infant mortality.”Alt said strengthening the standard for soot pollution is part of a broader campaign undertaken by her organization to ensure that emissions overall are reduced by at least half by the end of the decade.Tightening the standards for soot pollution is a significant part of that effort, Alt said, noting that it is “essential to all Americans, to our health, to the health of the planet and to the U.S. role in the world when it comes to climate.”

 As California’s wells dry up, residents rely on bottled water to survive - Wells are running dry in California at a record pace. Amid a hotter, drier climate and the third consecutive year of severe drought, the state has already tallied a record 1,351 dry wells this year — nearly 40 percent over last year’s rate and the most since the state created its voluntary reporting system in 2014. The bulk of these outages slice through the center of the state, in the parched lowlands of the San Joaquin Valley, where residents compete with deep agricultural wells for the rapidly dwindling supply of groundwater. Amid rows of almond and orange trees, entire communities are relying on deliveries of bottled water to survive. More than 2,400 homes in the region keep their taps running with emergency plastic water tanks installed in their yards by the nonprofit group Self-Help Enterprises. It sends around a fleet of trucks to fill the tanks, which hold 2,500 to 3,000 gallons, at least every two weeks. More than half of the tanks are new this year. Tami McVay, Self-Help’s director of emergency services, expected this year’s spike in dry wells. But the sheer scope of the shortages this summer has been unsettling for her. She has watched as groundwater in some places has fallen in one year by hundreds of feet. Last year, her organization made emergency bottled water deliveries after outages from dry or malfunctioning wells threatened the water supply in two communities. This year, that has happened in 20 communities. “Mentally, I don’t think we were prepared to really kind of absorb how fast it was happening,” she said. “Overnight our phones just started ringing.” Groundwater is both the main source of water for many communities and a buffer that California relies on during drought. Normally, theseunderground reserves account for about 40 percent of the state’s water supply; in dry years, that grows to 60 percent. Of the 3,700 wells on the state’s live groundwater website that track levels over the past decade, nearly half of them are much below normal or at an all-time low. “What we’re facing is pretty unprecedented,” said Steven Springhorn, an engineering geologist with the Sustainable Groundwater Management Office of California’s Department of Water Resources. “It’s very dry out there.”

Why Is the Mississippi River Drying Up? - The Mississippi River's water levels are the lowest they have been in a decade. The river is the second largest in the U.S. and provides drinking water to around 20 million people but as water levels continue to decline, this integral water source could be at risk. Particularly low water levels have been recorded in Memphis, Tennessee, where levels have dropped to as low as -6.1 feet as of November 15. Parts of the U.S. have been in the grips of an ongoing megadrought. The Mississippi River is just the latest body of water to be affected by the dry conditions."Around 1/3 of rainfall in the U.S. ends up in the Mississippi River, and with decreased rainfall in the Midwest, there is less water entering the river to begin with," Alexander Loucopoulos, Partner of Sciens Water and Chair of the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative (MRCTI)'s Corporate Advisory Board, told Newsweek.It is suspected that climate change is the main reason for the ongoing drought.But it is hard to tell for certain. Some scientists have noted that in previous years, the river has actually produced record water flows, meaning this could just be a one year issue.If water levels continue to recede, however, the discovery of shipwrecks will not be the only result. "The Mississippi River provides drinking water to around 20 million people, or 16% of the U.S. population. It's also a primary mode of transportation, carrying around 500 million tons of cargo every year," Loucopoulos said. "The Mississippi River Basin is home to 57% of US farmland, producing 60% of US grains and 54% of US soybeans. This interconnected network, spanning much farther than just the Mississippi River Basin, will be affected by this drought." The Mississippi River runs through ten states, namely Minnesota, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana. Although the river will probably never dry up entirely because of its size and not all of these states are in a severe drought, those that are may see narrower waterways as water levels continue to drop, which will in turn affect the routes of cargo ships. Loucopoulos said that Louisiana, as well as Tennessee, have been particularly affected and the results of the drought are already being seen first hand in these states. "Louisiana has been affected in a pretty big way, as it sits at the mouth of the river and has experienced first hand the impacts of saltwater intrusion at the Mississippi River Delta," he said. "There are already communities that have issued water advisories and are looking to desalination treatments to ensure steady drinking water supplies." "Throughout many parts of the river, including Memphis, the Mississippi River has reached record lows," Loucopoulos said. "At one point there were 2,000 barges stalled due to low water levels. Low water levels mean less drinking water for the 20 million people dependent on the river, issues transporting crops and other goods on barges down the river and threaten availability of water for food production in the Basin. It's an interconnected system; you can't separate one issue from another." "In short, if the drought continues, we will face issues in delivering clean drinking water, producing food, and transporting goods. Costs for all will increase, beyond just those living in the Mississippi River Basin," Loucopoulos said.

Low Mississippi River water levels drive up shipping costs – Marketplace -Water levels on the Mississippi River have reached historic lows in recent weeks because of a drought affecting more than half of the country. The Mississippi is a critical pathway for all kinds of agricultural products, including grains and soy beans.Despite a bit of relief, thanks to some recent rain, the cost of shipping those goods on the river remains high. And with fears of global food shortages following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the troubles on the Mississippi come at an especially bad time.“Normally, it costs about 80 cents to get the soybeans or the corn from where I’m at to New Orleans,” said Allen Pace, a farmer who grows corn, soy and wheat on his farm inLaCenter, Kentucky, just a few miles from where the Ohio River empties into the Mississippi. “This year, it’s costing close to between $2.50 and $2.90 for the same bushel to go down the river.”But the low water levels on the Mississippi have left him with fewer shipping options, so he’s paying a lot more to send his harvest by barge. He’s feeling the higher cost of transport in the other direction too — paying more for products like fertilizer coming up the Mississippi. “I think they call it farming,” Pace said. “It’s pretty tough when you get squeezed on both ends.”The Mississippi moves about 60% of the U.S. soy and corn bound for other parts of the world, according to the USDA.For soy alone, most U.S. exports are sent abroad between September and February, according to Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition.“This is game time for the U.S. soybean industry and the fact that our inland waterways system is still not operating as normal – it’s analogous to attaching a garden hose to a fire hydrant,” Steenhoek said.Most barges can easily accommodate at least 50,000 bushels, “but every time you have 1 foot less of water at your disposal, you are putting 5,000 fewer bushels of soybeans per barge out of concern that if you load these barges to their normal standards, you could encounter a grounding. You could scrape the bottom,” he said. Steenhoek said some sections of the Mississippi, especially south of St. Louis, have lost about 3 feet of depth in places that are normally 12 feet deep.“That means 15,000 fewer bushels of soybeans per barge, which is a significant reduction in the cargo carrying capacity of an individual barge,” he said. And fewer barges are moving along the Mississippi because the river also isn’t as wide as it normally is. “There is no quick solution to this,” said Jason Miller, interim chairperson for the Department of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University. “Many people would say, ‘Well, why don’t we just, you know, send all the grain by train down to New Orleans?’ Well, there’s only so much rail capacity.” He said that limited capacity can make rail transport prohibitively expensive as an alternative to shipping by barge. “So in some instances, you may be better off just storing it,” Miller said. That’s exactly what many farmers are choosing to do as they wait for shipping costs to fall.

Rains Bring Slight Improvements To River Levels - The Waterways Journal - Recent rain showers and the expectation of more after Hurricane Nicole moved inland are helping stabilize the depth of the Lower Mississippi River, but congestion remains a problem as closures for dredging continue.Randy Chamness, co-chair of the Lower Mississippi River Committee (LOMRC), said some parts of Missouri have recently received more than 2 inches of rain, and areas farther east have generally seen 1 to 1-1/2 inches of precipitation. At press time, Hurricane Nicole was expected to deliver more rain to some parts of Ohio and northern Kentucky along the Ohio River Valley.“Everybody’s holding their breath, wondering how much they’re going to get,” he said.Overall, Chamness described conditions along the Lower Mississippi as “somewhat stabilized.”“It’s been very nice to have the extra water in the system, but we need a lot more to get us out of this, obviously,” he said.The river’s width and depth are now maintaining in most locations instead of continuing to deteriorate, he added.“We did see a nice rise in St. Louis of about 3 feet on the gauge,” Chamness said. “On the Lower [Mississippi], in Memphis, it was marginal, but we did see a 1-1/2-foot to 2-foot increase gradually in Memphis.” Some longer-term models are showing the possibility of slow overall improvement, although that could change, and the situation should still be considered critical, he said. “At least we’re not in the negative 10 range in Memphis. Being negative 7 or negative 8, while not ideal, at least lets us move with the tow size we have.” The controlling draft remained at 9 feet, 6 inches southbound from Cairo, but “we are at a hard 9 foot northbound,” Chamness said. The maximum tow size was 25 barges southbound and 35 northbound, but with a maximum of three barges wide in the tow. Major dredging continues to take place at Stack Island, at Mile 486, with rolling 24-hour closures building queues of 40 to 50 tows typically, Chamness said. The dredge Hurley also expected to begin dredging November 10 just below Finley Bar at Lower Mississippi Mile 704, which would necessitate a closure of at least 24 hours, he said. The next hot spots for dredging were anticipated to be just below the Booth Point Bridge in Caruthersville, Mo., at Mile 839, Kate Aubrey/Gold Dust at Mile 793 and at Cherokee/Meriwether at Mile 869. “We continually get surveys through different areas based on feedback we’re getting from the mariners,” he said. With barges continuing to light-load, more tows are in the system to facilitate shipping the harvest, however. Combined with intermittent closures, that is creating a glut of barge traffic in some locations. “As long as we have these queues that build 40-50 boats, the congestion is going to continue,” Chamness said. “The boats are going to move in waves, and it’s a really big challenge to try to space the boats out whenever we’ve got closures going on concurrently. When you’re turning 40-50 boats loose at once it creates some congestion in the ports. We do get some added congestion at the fueling locations.” The industry is also bracing for the annual reduction in flow from the Missouri River, which is set to begin November 19 at Gavins Point. Chamness said the reduction in flow could have a significant impact from St. Louis south although the extent of it remains unknown right now.

Mississippi River rising but still low - - The Mississippi River is on the rise in Memphis after a month of record lows. The river’s Memphis gauge hit a record 10.81 feet below the gauge in late October, just a couple of weeks after surpassing a three-decade record.But a nine-foot rise in nine days is expected to bring the river above zero early next week. That’s higher than it’s been in months but still under what is considered “low” for the river. “While that’s certainly not going to solve our problems, that’s eight feet more river than we currently have,” said Mike Johnson, senior forecaster at the National Weather Service of Memphis. Memphis isn’t expecting much precipitation, but rainfall upriver is stabilizing the lower river.“We don’t focus necessarily on what falls here. We focus on what falls over the Ohio River, the upper Mississippi, the Missouri River. Those areas feed down into the Mississippi River and the Mid-South,” Johnson said.The Mississippi River is the largest drainage basin in the country. More than 40% of the contiguous U.S. feeds into it.The areas that feed into the Mississippi River must be replenished before there’s any significant impact on river levels downstream. Current forecasts anticipate “near normal” precipitation upriver after a period of unusually high drought. Johnson said “near normal” rainfall won’t completely remedy low river levels, but he’s hopeful it’ll hold the river in Memphis above zero. A long-lasting La Niña is complicating the forecast.La Niña and El Niño are types of climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather conditions everywhere, and La Niña causes drier, warmer weather across the southern U.S. Typically, these patterns occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine months and one year. Right now, the country is preparing for its third consecutive year of La Niña — the first three-year La Niña in two decades.Johnson said La Niña lessens their confidence in the forecast, so it’s hard to say when the river will be replenished, “but it’s going to take a while.”During last month’s record lows, the shipping industry faced record-high barge rates, lower capacity and slower traffic, and farmers couldn’t export their yields during the harvest’s peak. The Mississippi River basin produces more than 90% of the nation’s agricultural exports; nearly two-thirds of all U.S. grain exports travel on the river, so low water created a dire situation.There’s still dredging and closures along the waterway, but barge traffic is picking up, and shipping costs are returning to rates not seen since late September. Drought is the main driver of the low river, and climate change makes droughts more frequent, longer and more severe, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland, with a coalition of other Mississippi River mayors, has requested federal help the next time drought strikes.“Low water can have as great a cost, or greater, than high water,” Strickland said in early November. “We have all these tools at our disposal for floods, but very few for droughts.”

Buffalo weather: Extreme lake-effect snow could bring four feet - A potentially historic snowstorm is set to plaster some of the most snow-prone cities on the continent with up to 5 feet of accumulation. Buffalo and Watertown, N.Y. — two cities on the eastern tips of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, respectively — are in line for an extreme lake-effect snow event.The National Weather Service in Buffalo is taking an unusually grave tone in its forecast, writing that the episode could be “paralyzing” and “crippling.” On Thursday afternoon, it increased the predicted snowfall around Buffalo from a range of 36 to 48 inches to 48 to 60 inches.A 36-hour period of rapid accumulation, complete with thundersnow and near-blizzard conditions, is expected to ensue between Thursday night and Saturday morning, with additional snows lingering through Sunday. The heaviest snow is anticipated late Thursday through Friday night.“All the ingredients are in place for a major lake effect snowstorm,”wrote the National Weather Service in Buffalo in an online forecast discussion. Its impact scale for snowstorms classified the event at the highest possible level: “extreme.” Such events can lead to “extensive and widespread closures and disruptions to infrastructure,” the agency wrote.New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) declared a state of emergency effective Thursday morning and said the state was deploying emergency assets. Buffalo schools announced they will close on Friday.Snowfall rates could become excessive — approaching 4 inches per hour — outpacing even the fastest shoveler or snowblower. The combination of heavy snow and winds gusting up to 35 mph would greatly restrict visibility.“Travel will be difficult to impossible,” the Weather Service warned. “Some major roadways could temporarily close.”

Bills-Browns game moved from Buffalo to Detroit because of snowstorm - The NFL relocated the Buffalo Bills’ home game Sunday because of the prospect of a massive snowstorm hitting the area. The Bills’ game against the Cleveland Browns will be played at Ford Field in Detroit, the league announced Thursday. The NFL said the move was made due “to public safety concerns and out of an abundance of caution in light of the ongoing weather emergency in western New York.” Forecasts are calling for three to six feet of snow in parts of western New York. The game will be played at 1 p.m. Eastern time, as originally scheduled, and televised by CBS.

Orchard Park tops 48-hour snowfall reports with 54 inches; Blasdell at 48 inches -- The National Weather Service at 5 p.m. Friday published snowfall totals for the past 48 hours. Here are the towns or villages with the greatest accumulation:

• • Orchard Park – 54 inches
• • Blasdell – 48 inches
• • Elma – 48 inches
• • East Aurora – 41 inches
• • Marilla – 37.5 inches
• • Hamburg – 37 inches
• • West Seneca – 36 inches
• • Sloan – 31 inches
• • Boston – 30.3 inches

Live Updates Lake Effect Snow: Western New York buried under chest-deep snow | AccuWeather Over 5 feet of snow now confirmed in western New York. Snowfall reports over 5 feet have trickled in from the hardest-hit areas of New York state as of early Saturday morning. The highest total so far is a whopping 66 inches of snow from Orchard Park, which is southeast of Buffalo, as of early Friday evening. Just to the northwest, Blasdell has reported 65 inches of snow so far. To the south of Blasdell, a building collapse and numerous car rescues have occurred in Hamburg, where 61 inches of snow have fallen with the ongoing storm. Additional significant snowfall is still possible through Sunday, with Winter Storm Watches set to expire as late as Sunday night. Despite portions of the Buffalo area being impacted by several feet of snow, power outages remained low during the day on Friday across the region. About 1,700 customers were without power in Erie County as of Friday evening, with the entire state of New York totaling about 1,900 outages. Of the six counties that border Erie, only Wyoming County reported outages with just one. Power outages were scattered this morning but have since lowered to under 2,000 according to PowerOutage.US.AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that the weight of the heavy lake-effect snow could become too much for some structures to handle. According to AccuWeather’s calculations, 4 feet of snow accumulation on a residential roof could weigh as much as 34,000 pounds. Accumulations of this magnitude have already been reported near Orchard Park, New York, located about 10 miles southeast of Buffalo. For comparison, a typical school bus weighs around 20,000 pounds. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said that building standards in this part of New York are different than in other areas of the country, specifically so that structures in New York can withstand heavy snow. However, some structures could still be threatened by the snow load due to the extreme nature of the ongoing event.

Drivers in western New York's Erie County still advised to stay off the roads after deadly storm dumps almost 6 feet of snow in some areas --Even by western New York standards, Friday’s snowstorm was colossal, bringing eye-level accumulation totals to some areas and prompting officials to tell many people who are used to driving in bad weather to stay off the roads.“I can say that our deputies have been just absolutely inundated with calls for service as it pertains to disabled motor vehicles and stranded motorists,” Erie County Undersheriff William J. Cooley said at a news conference Friday night as heavy, wet snow continued to fall. “We implore the residents to just, please, obey the travel ban, you become part of the problem very quickly when you’re out there on the streets.”Snowfall totals reached 5 feet in at least two locations. Orchard Park, where the Buffalo Bills had been scheduled to play their now-relocated NFL game Sunday, had snowfall totals of up to 66 inches by Friday evening. Blasdell, about eight miles from Buffalo, recorded 65 inches as of 8:30 p.m. The storm had contributred to two deaths. Two Erie County residents died after suffering cardiac events related to shoveling or blowing snow, County Executive Mark Poloncarz said earlier.Buffalo’s highest three-day snowfall is 56.1 inches, which occurred in December 2001, CNN Meteorologist Brandon Miller said. One area of the city reported almost 20 inches as of Friday morning. “In those areas where the snow is falling that fast, it can be very dangerous,” Poloncarz said the lake-effect snow event had hit the south towns of Buffalo “with a vengeance, very hard and all these communities are in a state of emergency at this point.” As the region waited out the storm:

• • As of Friday night, it was snowing 1-3 inches in the area, according to the National Weather Service in Buffalo.
• • Buffalo has a ban on vehicle travel in the southern part of the city and advisories elsewhere.
• • According to FlightAware.com, about 70% of outgoing flights were canceled at the Buffalo airport, which has almost 13 inches of snow.
• • The NFL earlier this week moved the Bills’ game against the Cleveland Browns to Detroit. The team hopes to travel from Buffalo on Saturday.
• • Hamburg, around 15 miles south of Buffalo, had almost 34 inches of snow by 8 a.m.
• • Buffalo public schools were closed Friday. So are Erie County services.

Earlier, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul Implored residents to take caution this weekend and described the storm as a “major, major” snowfall event that could be as life-threatening as the November 2014 snowstorm that claimed the lives of 20 people in the Buffalo region. Hochul declared a state of emergency for 11 counties.Nicole Erb told CNN early Friday afternoon: “It’s a mess out here,” in the backyard of her Orchard Park home.She estimated she has about 4 feet of snow around her house.

Shoveling out in Buffalo: Parts of western N.Y. buried by 77 inches of snow - While Western New Yorkers know how to handle snowstorms as well as anyone in the Lower 48, even some of the hardened veterans of massive lake-effect events were left in awe by the rapid accumulation seen in the first 24 hours south of Buffalo — one meteorologists say will be for the record books. 10 steps you can take to lower your carbon footprint The neighborhoods at the southern tip of Buffalo and towns and villages to the south and east saw more than five feet of snow accumulate in some areas from Thursday to Friday. The massive snowdrifts made driving near impossible, with response teams struggling to get around engulfed vehicles. The massive snowfall was blamed for at least two deaths: Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz tweeted “cardiac events related to exertion during shoveling/snow blowing” as the cause. Many stuck in the persistent bands downwind of Lake Erie made the most of their situation, posting pictures and video of waist-high snow outside front doors and confused dogs trying to figure out how to get outside to use the bathroom. “It’s fun,” he said. “The kid in you still comes out and it’s like. ‘Oh, a snow day!’ But then you realize you’ve got to deal with it.” Orchard Park, the suburban home of the Buffalo Bills football team was the hardest hit of all, with 66 inches touching down from Thursday into Friday, potentially setting the record for the most snowfall in a 24 hour period in New York State. By Saturday morning, Orchard Park reported a staggering 77 inches. Totals over 60 inches were also reported around Hamburg and Blasdell, about 10 miles to Buffalo’s south. (The Bills’ “home” game against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday will be played in Detroit.) Excessive amounts of snow also buried areas on the northeast shores of Lake Ontario. Watertown, N.Y., reported 57 inches, and a location about 20 miles to its east posted 72 inches. Crowell recounted the storm of November 2014, another that made international headlines, particularly for the shocking photos of a massive wall of clouds forming over Lake Erie before dumping more than seven feet of snow in a similar area of Buffalo. Even that storm, he said, seemed less shocking because the snow fell over a longer period of time and in two waves. “I’ve got to be honest with you, the weather forecasters, they were pretty … accurate,” he said. “I was hoping that maybe they’d get egg on their face on this. But they hit it right on the nose. They knew this was going to be big.” But the most extreme, crippling snow amounts around the city were very localized — which is typical with lake-effect snow. While snow totals over 40 inches were common just a few miles south of Buffalo, some locations on the city’s north side only posted 5 to 10 inches. City residents for the most part were nonplussed by what they characterized as a typical late fall snowstorm. Heavy snows began throughout the city Thursday night, but quickly shifted south after only a few hours, leaving about seven inches of snow for the bulk of city dwellers to clean up Friday morning..

Major flash floods hit SE Australia - )video) Widespread rain and thunderstorms hit large parts of southeastern Australia on November 12 and 13, 2022, producing major flash floods, stranding residents and damaging homes. This is Australia’s fourth major flooding this year. The highest rainfall totals on Saturday, November 12 were observed through South Australia, northern Victoria, and southern New South Wales (NSW), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reports.1 On Sunday the focus shifted to northeast Victoria and the New South Wales western slopes. The highest 2-day rainfall totals to 09:00 LT, on Monday, November 14:

• 165 mm (6.49 inches) at Tuena, Southern Tablelands, NSW
• 144 mm (5.67 inches) at Mount Hotham, Victoria
• 133 mm (5.23 inches) at Tallandoon, Victoria
• 127 mm (4.99 inches) at Forbes Airport, NSW (118 mm / 4.63 inches on Sunday)
• 118 mm (4.64 inches) at Orange, NSW (100 mm / 3.93 inches on Sunday)
• 106 mm (4.17 inches) at Parkes Airport, NSW
• 92 mm (3.62 inches) at Rutherglen, Victoria, and Yankalilla, South Australia
• 88 mm (3.46 inches) at Bathurst, NSW

With this recent rainfall, renewed or prolonged flooding is expected to develop across many catchments across southeast Australia. Flood Watches are current as rivers begin to respond to rainfall and flooding develops, BOM forecasters said. There are significant concerns for the communities of Forbes and Bathurst in New South Wales, with Major Flood warnings current. Moderate to heavy rainfall observed across the Lachlan River catchment has resulted in renewed river level rises. A Flood Watch is current for minor to major flooding for the Lachlan River. Major Flooding is occurring at Nanami and Jemaalong Weir. Major Flooding is likely at Forbes from tomorrow afternoon, with water level rises likely to peak at around 10.80 m (35.4 feet) late Thursday, November 17. Major flooding is also occurring along the upper Macquarie River at Bathurst. The Macquarie River may reach around 7 m (22.9 feet) by 13:00 LT today, which is above the levee height of 6.90 m (22.6 feet).

China’s Heat Wave, Water Shortage Threaten Its Role in Global Supply Chain --Over the past two months, China has been battling its worst heat wave in more than 60 years, with temperatures reaching as high as 113°F in Beibei, which is in the Chongqing province, and 111.2°F in Sichuan province, The Washington Post reported. “The water shortage is in turn affecting internal transportation … which affects supply chains. The water shortages are affecting power generation, or hydropower, which affect supply chains. The power shortages they’re already having is affecting supply chains,” said Cheng, who characterized China as “water poor.” “What we are seeing is a China that is likely to become ever less reliable as part of the global supply chain,” Cheng said, though he added it’s unlikely countries will depart from China in the near future due to how long it would take to build factories elsewhere.Cheng said it is possible, however, that companies will look to build new factories elsewhere due to the communist country’s water-supply issues and their impact on the global supply chain. “It does mean that companies are going to be looking at modernizing other places, perhaps outside of China. It means companies will be thinking, ‘Where will I open my next factory?’ and maybe say, ‘instead of China, then Vietnam, Peru, Egypt,” Cheng said.“That is going to be part of the longer-term impact of all of this. There’s a long-term rejiggering of global supply chains, potentially making certain products less dependent on China,” he said.The heat wave has resulted in rolling electrical blackouts for homes and offices, and in factories being shut down, and it has killed thousands of fish and poultry, CNN reported. Some electricity was restored after two weeks, however, because of fewer people requiring air conditioning due to decreasing temperatures, according to German broadcaster Deutsche Welle. “When you have an extended heat wave, plus some areas being hit by droughts, you start having multiple demands for water, which is a problem for China, because China overall has a shortage of fresh water,” Cheng said. Sichuan province is home to at least 80 million people and is considered a “regional manufacturing powerhouse.” The province and a nearby megacity, Chongqing, now face severe flooding due to rain that began on Sunday and is expected to continue falling through Tuesday. Upward of 100,000 people were evacuated to “safer areas” due to the rainfall, the Associated Pressreported. Global supply chains have already been significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the heat wave has the potential to have a greater impact than the pandemic, according to Mirko Woitzik, a global director of intelligence solutions for Everstream Analytics.Woitzik sounded the alarm in a recent interview with Fortune about the heat wave’s impact on both the global supply chain and the semiconductor industry.

India’s state wheat stock halves from a year ago - Indian wheat stocks held in government warehouses were half the level of a year ago on Nov. 1, government data showed on Monday, but inventories were marginally higher than the official target. Wheat reserves in state stores totalled 21 million tonnes at the start of this month, down from 42 million tonnes on Nov. 1, 2021, but still slightly higher than the official target of 20.5 million tonnes for the quarter ending Dec. 31. Wheat inventories at government-run granaries stood at 22.7 million tonnes on Oct. 1. Lower state reserves could hobble the government’s efforts to release stocks to cool wheat prices, something it does regularly for bulk buyers such as flour and biscuit makers. Wheat prices have surged in India despite the world’s second biggest producer of the grain implementing a ban on exports in May as it was stung by a sudden drop in crop yields. Market arrivals from the previous harvest, meanwhile, have slowed to a trickle as farmers run down their stores. Indian wheat prices are expected to remain elevated until the new-season crop arrives on the market early next year, growers and traders say. If weather conditions remain favourable and temperatures do not rise abnormally during March and April’s harvest, India’s wheat output could bounce back to 2021’s level of 109.59 million tonnes given the good start to the planting season. Indian farmers have planted wheat on 4.5 million hectares since Oct. 1, when the current sowing season began, up 9.7% from a year ago. Local wheat prices jumped to a record 26,500 rupees ($324) a tonne on Thursday, up nearly 27% since the May ban on exports.

Unusually large, 5-km-long landslide hits Colombia - An unusually large landslide occurred in the village of El Molino, municipality of Villa Caro, Santander, Colombia on November 10, 2022. The slide, triggered by prolonged heavy rainfall, claimed the lives of at least 5 people from the same family. A total of 109 people or 20 families were preventively evacuated, most of them to relatives and friends. However, another 50 families are expected to evacuate. The slide’s length is estimated at 5 km (3.1 miles).

• En horas de la tarde acompañamos a @GoberNorte y al equipo de gestión del riesgo, en un sobrevuelo sobre la zona afectada por la ola invernal en Villa Caro, para evidenciar la magnitud de lo ocurrido y apoyar a las autoridades en las labores humanitarias de emergencia.pic.twitter.com/um6KqRTUl5 — Segunda División del Ejército Nacional (@Ejercito_Div2) November 12, 2022
• #Atención #Video | En el sobrevuelo que hizo la Gobernación de Norte de Santander, se ve el estrago de la temporada invernal que afecta a los habitantes de Villa Caro. Más info en: https://t.co/FGSSTs7IlP pic.twitter.com/KzSGRAJLeI — Diario La Opinión (@laopinioncucuta) November 11, 2022
• Grave desastre en Villa Caro deja cinco personas desaparecidas. pic.twitter.com/muIWVES8OK — Noti Cúcuta (@noticucuta) November 12, 2022

Climate crisis: past eight years were the eight hottest ever, says UN --The past eight years were the eight hottest ever recorded, a new UN report has found, indicating the world is now deep into the climate crisis. The internationally agreed 1.5C limit for global heating is now “barely within reach”, it said.The report, by the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), sets out how record high greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are driving sea level and ice melting to new highs and supercharging extreme weather from Pakistan to Puerto Rico.The stark assessment was published on the opening day of the UN’s Cop27climate summit in Egypt and as the UN secretary-general warned that “our planet is on course to reach tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible”.The WMO estimates that the global average temperature in 2022 will be about 1.15C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900), meaning every year since 2016 has been one of the warmest on record.For the past two years, the natural La Niña climate phenomenon has actually kept global temperatures lower than they would otherwise have been. The inevitable switch back to El Niño conditions will see temperatures surge even higher in future, on top of global heating.The WMO report said:

• Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are at record levels in the atmosphere as emissions continue. The annual increase in methane, a potent greenhouse gas, was the highest on record.
• The sea level is now rising twice as fast as 30 years ago and the oceans are hotter than ever.
• Records for glacier melting in the Alps were shattered in 2022, with an average of 13ft (4 metres) in height lost.
• Rain – not snow – was recorded on the 3,200m-high summit of the Greenland ice sheet for the first time.
• The Antarctic sea-ice area fell to its lowest level on record, almost 1m km²below the long-term average.

“The greater the warming, the worse the impacts,” said the WMO secretary-general, Prof Petteri Taalas. “We have such high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere now that the lower 1.5C [target] of the Paris Agreement is barely within reach. It’s already too late for many glaciers [and] sea level rise is a long-term and major threat to many millions of coastal dwellers and low-lying states.”António Guterres, UN secretary-general, said ahead of Cop27: “Emissions are still growing at record levels. That means our planet is on course for reachingtipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. We need to move from tipping points to turning points for hope.”A series of recent reports signalled how near the planet is to climate catastrophe, with “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place” and the current level of action set to see no fall in emissions and global temperature rise by a devastating 2.5C.

9 in 10 US counties have experienced a climate disaster in the last decade -Ninety percent of all counties in the United States have experienced a weather disaster over the past decade, and these climate-fueled events have caused more than $740 billion in damages, according to a new report from the climate adaptation group Rebuild by Design.The “Atlas of Disaster,” a first-of-its-kind study published on Wednesday, analyzes a decade of federal disaster spending to reveal which parts of the country have been hit hardest by climate change, and which are most vulnerable to future catastrophes. The report finds that the federal disaster relief system is both underfunded and inefficient: The government lacks the authority and resources to help communities fully recover after disasters, and it also spends too much money on rebuilding in risky areas.“It shows unequivocally that climate change is here and that all taxpayers are paying for it,” said Amy Chester, the managing director of Rebuild by Design. The organization began as a federal government initiative to help the Northeast recover from Hurricane Sandy, and is now housed at New York University’s Institute for Public Knowledge.States like Florida and California often draw the most attention for enduring extreme climate disasters like hurricanes and wildfires, but the Rebuild by Design report reveals that almost every part of the U.S. has been touched by disaster: Nine out of 10 counties experienced a flood, fire, windstorm, or other disaster severe enough to merit federal assistance between 2011 and 2021. Only the temperate Upper Midwest and the dry inland reaches of the Great Basin largely avoided widespread damage.Even that estimate is too low, since it excludes two major climate events: heat and drought. Because heat waves don’t cause property damage, they don’t trigger federal disaster declarations, and federal spending on drought primarily covers major impacts to crop production. The federal government is on the hook to help rebuild after these disasters, and the costs of recovery are enormous. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, or HUD, have together spent almost $100 billion on disaster recovery over the past decade, and other agencies like the Department of Agriculture have spent billions more. The lion’s share of this money has flowed to coastal states like Louisiana, where the feds spent $1,736 per capita on disaster recovery between 2011 and 2021, according to the new report.As a warming world creates more severe disasters and as more people move into vulnerable areas, these costs are only going to increase. The report suggests that flood damages alone could cost the U.S. another $72 billion over the next 10 years. That’s equivalent to the combined annual budgets of Delaware, New Hampshire, Vermont, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Alaska.Eye-popping as these numbers might seem, they only include a fraction of total disaster damages. FEMA funds for rebuilding go to homeowners to repair property damaged by disaster, but the agency can’t spend money to address long-term crises like pollution and sea-level rise. Renters are also left out of the vast majority of these payments, which hampers recovery in low-income areas where fewer people own property. HUD can provide supplemental aid for long-term recovery, but Congress must approve this funding on a case-by-case basis, which makes itsubject to political whims. In addition, says Chester, most disaster spending is inefficient, and serves to rebuild what existed before rather than make communities more resilient to disasters.

Emissions on track to reach all-time high even as leaders meet at COP27 -- World leaders have come and gone. Now lower level ministers at COP27 in Egypt must wrestle with the thorniest issues dividing rich and poor nations on the climate crisis in order to craft an agreement. The decisions made in Sharm el-Sheikh could help determine whether the Paris warming limit of 1.5°C permanently fades into the distance, or if nations commit to sweeping actions to keep it alive. The crucial second week of the summit comes as a new scientific report reveals the world is still headed in the wrong direction on fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.Emissions are likely to reach an all-time high this year, with a 1% increase over last year, according to the Global Carbon Project, an international research effort. “I can’t say that I see much optimism out of these numbers,” Glen Peters, a study coauthor and a researcher at CICERO in Oslo, told Axios."There's not even a hint of a decrease at least in the last 10 years." Global fossil CO2 emissions are now more than 5% above 2015 levels when the Paris Agreement was struck, he said. Taking into account historical emissions, the Global Carbon Budget analyzes how much more CO2 countries could emit before the Paris Agreement's temperature targets are exceeded.The findings are stark, concluding that at current emissions rates, the world has just nine years before exceeding the budget for the 1.5-degree warming target, and 30 years for the 2-degree target.To meet a midcentury net-zero goal, emissions would need to steadily decline annually by about the same margin as they did during the pandemic year of 2019, the study notes. : It is against this backdrop that diplomats must negotiate an offramp away from an increasingly dystopian future. Every single word will be contested by bleary-eyed ministers, and the talks are already running behind.“There has not been a huge amount of progress on the negotiations themselves,” Alex Scott of E3G, told Axios from Egypt. She said the leaders’ summit at COP27 showed support for accelerating climate action but lacked many new commitments. Potential flash points around the summit text include whether and how the Paris targets are incorporated, particularly the 1.5°C goal.There's also the potential mention, as at COP26, of the need to cut fossil fuel use. Coal, the most carbon-intensive power source, may be singled out. The matter of climate damages also looms large, with the wild card of whether an agreement commits countries to establishing a new funding mechanism. Also, Scott said many countries are pushing for more details and greater funding to help developing nations adapt to the effects of climate change. "The adaptation finance point is really one to watch," she said. An external factor that may shape the COP27 outcome is the G20 meeting currently underway in Bali, Indonesia. The leaders of China and India are present there, after skipping COP27.The interaction between the two confabs introduces more volatility to the COP27 dynamics, and could affect instructions given to government ministers for the final text, Scott said.

Analysis: World has 9 years to avoid critical climate change threshold - The world can afford to emit greenhouse gases for about nine years at current levels to avert crossing the 1.5-degree warming threshold, according to an analysis released Friday.The annual Global Carbon Budget, which analyzes the maximum emissions under which the world can stay on track to avert that point, projected that more than 380 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions would cross the red line. This is roughly nine years under current emission levels.The report found a decline in long-term increase rates for fossil fuel emissions, which were at about 0.6 percent over the last 10 years compared to a high point of 3 percent a year in the first decade of the 21^st century. However, oil emissions in particular have rebounded since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, due largely to increased air travel.Among major emitters, China is projected to cut emissions about 0.9 percent and the European Union is projected to reduce emissions around 0.8 percent. However, the U.S. is projected to increase its emissions 1.5 percent, while India is on track for a 6 percent increase and all other nations combined are projected to increase theirs 1.7 percent.The report comes a week into the international COP27 climate summit in Egypt, which President Biden is scheduled to attend Friday.

Science Day at COP27 Shows That Climate Talks Aren’t Keeping Pace With Planetary Physics - The first week of climate talks at COP27 ended with another sharp warning from scientists, who said that global warming is already killing thousands to tens of thousands of people each year, and that the carnage will only increase without immediate, sharp cuts of the emissions heating the climate.The reported death toll “is probably an underestimate because it is based on preliminary quantification for heat-related mortality,” said Kristie Ebi, a public health researcher at the University of Washington and co-author of a new report released at the United Nations climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. “The total number would be larger if all climate-sensitive health outcomes were considered for which there is attribution to climate change,” she said.The scientific evidence shows that global warming impacts are outrunning the slow pace of negotiations aimed at slowing climate change, said co-author Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “You cannot continue compromising with science all the time,” he said. “You cannot negotiate with the planet, you cannot negotiate with the atmosphere. These are physical limits. And you’re simply hurting yourself if you underestimate the power of the Earth system.”That may hold especially with plans to adapt to the effects of global warming with measures like adequate residential cooling, or sea walls. It’s time to “question the myth of endless adaptation,” the authors wrote. “People and ecosystems in different places across the world are already confronted with limits to adaptation, and if the planet warms beyond 1.5°C or even 2°C, more widespread breaching of adaptation limits is expected. Hence, adaptation efforts cannot be a substitute for ambitious mitigation.” That doesn’t mean giving up on efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change, said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. He said there needs to be more focus on proactive measures to protect people, “But they will not prevent all losses and damage that we have seen. Investing in mitigation is a way of reducing the need to invest in adaptation and resilience.” The “myth of endless adaptation” really goes to the heart of the findings of one of the most recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which pointed out “large knowledge gaps” about how to adapt to the changing climate, said Aditi Mukherji, with the International Water Management Institute.“We do not know which adaptation is effective in reducing risk and under what context,” she said. “And whatever we know about the effectiveness of adaptation, at higher levels of global warming it is pretty certain that those adaptation measures will not remain very effective.”

COP27 Fiddling as World Warms - The latest annual climate conference has begun in the face of a worsening climate crisis and further retreats by rich nations following the energy crisis induced by NATO sanctions after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The 27th Conference of the Parties (COP 27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is now meeting in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, from 6 to 18 November 2022. COP27 takes place amidst worsening poverty, hunger and war, and higher prices, exacerbating many interlinked climate, environmental and socio-economic crises. The looming world economic recession is likely to be deeper than in 2008. The likely spiral into stagflation will make addressing the climate crisis even more difficult. Invoking the Ukraine war as pretext, governments and corporations are rushing to increase fossil fuel production to offset the deepening energy crisis. Resources which should be deployed for climate adaptation and mitigation have been diverted for war, fossil fuel extraction and use, including resumption of shale gas ‘fracking’ as well as coal mining and burning. War causes huge social and economic damage to people, society and the environment. The wars in Ukraine, Yemen and elsewhere impose high costs on all, disrupting energy and food supplies, and raising prices sharply. Russia’s Ukraine incursion has provided a convenient smokescreen for a hasty return to fossil fuels, as military-industrial processes alone account for 6% of all greenhouse gases. All these have worsened crises facing the world’s environment and economy. The most optimistic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario expects the 1.5°C rise above pre-industrial levels threshold for climate catastrophe to be breached by 2040. Crossing it, the world faces risks of far more severe climate change effects on people and ecosystems, especially in the tropics and sub-tropical zone. But the future is already upon us. Accelerating warming is already causing worse extreme weather events, ravaging economies, communities and ecosystems. Recent floods in Pakistan displaced 33 million people. Wildfires, extreme heat, ice melt, drought, and extreme weather phenomena are already evident on many continents, causing disasters worldwide. In 2021, the sea level rose to a record high, and is expected to continue rising. UN reports estimate women and children are 14 times more likely than adult men to die during climate disasters. Popular sentiment is shifting, even in the US, where ‘climate scepticism’ is strongest. Devastation threatened by Hurricane Ida in 2021 not only revived painful memories of Katrina in 2005, but also heightened awareness of warming-related extreme weather events. In international negotiations, rich nations have evaded historical responsibility for ‘climate debt’ by only focusing on current emissions. Hence, there is no recognition of a duty to compensate those most adversely impacted in the global South. Last year’s COP26 Glasgow Climate Pact was hailed for its call to ‘phase-out’ coal. This has now been quickly abandoned by Europe with the war. And for developing countries, Glasgow failed to deliver any significant progress on climate finance. At COP27, the Egyptian presidency has proposed an additional ‘loss and damage’ finance facility to compensate for irreparable damage due to climate impacts. After failing to even meet its modest climate finance promises of 2009, the rich North is dithering, pleading for further talks until 2024 to work out financing details. Meanwhile, the G7 has muddied the waters by counter-offering its Global Shield Against Climate Risks – a disaster insurance scheme.

International Tensions At Forefront Of COP27 Climate Talks - Although there has been progress at COP27 on some issues, including international agreements to curb methane leakage, pledges to reduce emissions have slowed since last year. In the Glasgow Climate Pact, adopted by 193 countries at COP26 a year ago, governments agreed to strengthen their climate targets by the end of 2022. But as Wood Mackenzie analysts pointed out in their preview of this year’s talks, by October 31 only 26 countries had done so. Just eight of those were among the world’s top 25 emitters. Neither President Xi Jinping of China nor Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India attended. China and India are, respectively, the world’s largest and third-largest emitters of greenhouse gases, and any effective climate solution must include them. Both countries have reiterated previously-announced climate commitments. China has a goal of net-zero emissions by 2060, and India by 2070. In August, India updated its program of emissions pledges submitted to the UN and is now aiming to have about 50% of its power generation capacity in non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, and to cut the emissions intensity of its economy by 45% from 2005 levels, also by 2030. But their leaders’ non-attendance sends a signal about their views on the UN process. “They are showing their skepticism that this is a forum where fair negotiations would take place,” says Elena Belletti, Wood Mackenzie’s head of carbon research. “They have both strongly expressed in the past that Western solutions to climate change are not necessarily right for them, and they are protecting economic development.” While China might move away from coal, it will not do so until the energy supply it needs can be provided by other sources. Coal-fired plants account for about 63% of China’s power supply, and generation from coal is rising. Wood Mackenzie forecasts a 0.6% increase in China’s coal-fired generation this year, and a further 2.6% increase next year. Wood Mackenzie said that if the world is to achieve the Paris goals there is an urgent need for either a significant increase in the level of ambition of NDCs between now and 2030 or a significant overachievement of the latest NDCs or a combination of both. The UN said that if emissions are not reduced by 2030, they will need to be substantially reduced thereafter to compensate for the slow start on the path to net zero emissions. Another issue that has been highlighting international tensions over climate change is the question of whether and how to compensate for the loss and damage caused by global warming. Developing countries such as Pakistan that have been hit by problems such as flooding, and sea level rise linked to climate change have been calling for a new financing facility to address those issues. They have succeeded in getting the issue onto the agenda in climate negotiations, but still have a long way to go to persuade the international community to agree on a specific proposal. John Kerry said over the weekend that the US was “totally supportive” of the idea of a new facility for loss and damage but made clear that there was yet no agreement on how it would operate or who would pay for it. Some countries have already started to make the case for why they should not have to pay for this facility. Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia’s minister of state for foreign affairs, told the Financial Times: “We didn’t contribute this damage, this damage was contributed over the past 120 years by industrial countries, and if you want to see where the problem is – look at where the smokestacks are… We are a developing country.” China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua supported the idea of setting up but similarly rejected the idea that his country should pay into it. Kerry said an agreement on the proposal could come this year, at COP28 in Abu Dhabi next year, or not until 2024.

Global Energy Crisis Looms Over UN Climate Summit – While Some Countries Race to Renewables, Others Plan More Natural Gas Production, But It Comes With Risks --Russia’s war on Ukraine has cast a shadow over this year’s United Nations climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, where officials from around the world are discussing the costs of climate change and how to cut emissions that remain near record highs.The war has dramatically disrupted energy markets the world over, leaving many countries vulnerable to price spikes amid supply shortages.Europe, worried about keeping the heat on through winter, is outbidding poor countries for natural gas, even paying premiums to reroute tanker ships after Russia cut off most of its usual natural gas supply. Some countries are restarting coal-fired power plants. Others are looking for ways to expand fossil fuel production, including new projects in Africa.These actions are a long way from the countries’ pledges just a year ago to rein in fossil fuels, and they’re likely to further increase greenhouse gas emissions, at least temporarily.But will the war and the economic turmoil prevent the world from meeting the Paris climate agreement’s long-term goals?There are reasons to believe that this may not be the case.The answer depends in part on how wealthy countries respond to a focus of this year’s climate conference: fulfilling their pledges in the Paris Agreement to provide support for low- and middle-income countries to build clean energy systems.A key lesson many countries are taking away from the ongoing energy crisis is that, if anything, the transition to renewable energy must be pushed forward faster.About 80% of the world’s energy is still from fossil sources. Global trade in coal, oil and natural gas has meant that even countries with their own energy supplies have felt some of the pain of exorbitant prices. In the U.S., for example, natural gas and electricity prices are higher than normal because they are increasingly tied to international markets, and the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas.The shortage has led to a scramble to find fossil fuel suppliers in the short term. European countries have offered to help African countries produce more natural gas and have courted authoritarian regimes. The Biden administration is urging companies to extract more oil and gas, has tried to pressure Saudi Arabia to produce more oil, and considered lifting sanctions against Venezuela.However, Europe also has a growing renewable energy supply that has helped cushion some of the impact. A quarter of the European Union’s electricity comes from solar and wind, avoiding billions of euros in fossil fuel costs. Globally, investments in the clean energy transition increased by about 16% in 2022, the International Energy Agency estimates.If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a wake-up call to accelerate the clean energy transition in wealthier countries, the situation is much more complex in developing countries.Low-income countries are being hit hard by the impact of Russia’s war, not only by high energy costs, but also by decreases in grain and cooking oil exports. The more these countries are dependent on foreign oil and gas imports for their energy supply, the more they will be exposed to global market gyrations.

Climate Disinformation Campaigns Threaten COP27 Progress, a New Report Concludes - —The slow pace of global climate talks is once again on display at COP27 this week and can be partially explained by a renewed blitz of climate disinformation, according to watchdog groups that analyze media ecosystems.On Tuesday, the Climate Action Against Disinformation coalition released a new analysis of efforts to undermine climate action and found that false and misleading claims made by right-wing media outlets about global warming and clean energy continue to affect public perception about the climate crisis. The fossil fuel industry, the authors said, is riding that wave of disinformation into the climate talks to promote false solutions.“Misinformation has sowed uncertainty and impeded the recognition of risk … and the rise of climate misinformation is undermining climate action here at COP27,” Jacob Dubbins, a coauthor of the new report, said here at a press conference. The report said that Fox News remains a significant source of false and misleading information about the climate crisis, fueling unfounded public skepticism in a way that could even inspire violence against policymakers who advocate for strong climate action.The report included a scientific survey on the media consumption habits of thousands of people in six different countries: Brazil, Australia, India, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. It found that Americans, especially those who regularly watch Fox News, are the most likely among the study’s participants in all six countries to hold false beliefs about global warming.People who watch Fox News at least five times a week, the survey found, were far more likely than the general public to believe a host of false climate narratives, including that renewable energy sources are unreliable and more expensive at generating electricity than fossil fuels and that the world’s science community is still debating the cause of global warming.These “stark” findings, the report’s authors said, show that climate misinformation remains a rampant problem around the world and continues to be disproportionately spread by right-wing media. If more isn’t done to address the issue, they said, those false narratives will continue to hinder constructive debate, including at the United Nations’ COP27 global climate summit.“The misconception around climate change is too widespread and significant to ignore,” Erika Seiber, a press officer with environmental nonprofit Friends of the Earth and a spokesperson for the coalition that produced the report, said in an interview. “One quarter of Americans think that climate change is a hoax, a consistent and false talking point from Trump and the GOP. We can’t do much to address the climate crisis with this level of discrepancy over reality.”

How Oil & Gas Funding Distorts Energy Research - Journalists like me often seek out academics for comment and insight on stories related to the energy transition, since these professors have often done in-depth research into various fuel sources and their impacts. The hope is that these sources are relatively unbiased; their loyalty is to the data. But a study published Thursday in Nature Climate Change found that prominent energy policy centers at top-tier universities that are funded by the fossil fuel industry may produce content more favorable to dirty energy than other, similar centers. This is concerning, because it’s not just journalists who seek the council of these academics—it’s policymakers, too. “Reports by fossil-funded [centers] are more favorable towards natural gas than towards renewable energy, while centers less dependent on fossil fuel industry funding show a pro-renewable energy preference,” Anna Papp, a PhD student in Sustainable Development at Columbia University and one of the authors of the paper, told Earther in an email. Academic centers focused on energy research have become an increasingly respected and important voice in energy policy conversations, as the U.S. and the world begin grinding the gears on the energy transition. Representatives from places like Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy and MIT’s Energy Initiative have testified in Congress and are often featured on television as experts; some of their reports have even been the subject of their own Congressional hearings. But several of the most prominent academic think tanks working on energy issues also have significant funding from the fossil fuel industry. Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy, for instance, lists its financial partnerships on its website, which include big fossil fuel names like BP, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum. (Full disclosure: While I was employed at a PR firm between 2014 and 2016, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy was a client; I worked on some of their press needs and materials.) What’s more, much of the research and whitepapers produced by these centers does not undergo the peer review process that a scientific paper may receive. “Given longstanding concerns about the objectivity of corporate-funded research—for example, biomedical research—we wanted to better understand industry-funded research in the context of climate change,” Papp said. Papp and her coauthors set out to see if the reports and materials put out by academic centers who did disclose their fossil fuel funding were different from the centers that had no fossil fuel funding or which did not prominently feature that funding. To more accurately capture attitudes from these energy centers toward certain topics, Papp and her colleagues used a machine learning approach known as “text as data.”“‘Text as data’ algorithms convert written text to data that can be analyzed quantitatively,” Papp said. “A human reader forms an opinion about the sentiment of sentences or paragraphs, e.g., how positive or negative the text is. Of course, labeling sentences manually is extremely time-consuming and subjective. Sentiment analysis tools attempt to replicate this process computationally and quantify emotions contained in text.”Using a sentiment analysis tool, Papp and her fellow researchers compiled 1,706 research reports, consisting of more than one million sentences, from 26 energy research centers at universities based in the U.S., UK, and Canada published between 2009 and 2020. They chose to focus the analysis on academic centers’ sentiment towards natural gas.While natural gas has been promoted in the past as a “bridge fuel” between coal and oil and renewables, the massive amount of methane i nvolved in its production has meant that its former climate-friendly branding is coming under serious scrutiny. Despite research showing that the world needs tocease all new fossil fuel exploration immediately in order to keep the world from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, many oil and gas majors continue to promote natural gas as part of a climate solution.

COP27 highlights: Biden talks U.S. climate efforts at Egypt conference - Biden touted a swath of U.S. climate achievements, both domestic and in partnership with other countries. But he didn’t offer the thing people from climate-vulnerable countries most wanted to hear: support for a dedicated fund to help disaster-struck nations pay for the consequences of climate change.“It is important that the world addresses the climate catastrophes that are hitting us the hardest,” said Henry Kokofu, Ghana’s special envoy for climate and the lead negotiator for a group of nations called the Climate Vulnerable Forum.As President Biden spoke about Indigenous people having the solutions to climate change, a war cry came from the audience. Four protesters held a banner reading “People vs. Fossil Fuels,” before being quieted by U.N. security.Jacob Johns, one of the protesters, said they were taken into a side room after the speech and told their conference badges were being suspended. Pending a decision from the agency running the conference, they could no longer attend COP27.The protesters said an official told them they were “lucky” the U.N. security “got to them first” — seemingly implying they might face harsher treatment from Egyptian security officers. Activists have said that freedom to protest has been heavily curtailed in Egypt. President Biden took a glancing shot at China for its role in expanding coal plants, but was careful not to mention it by name.“If countries can finance coal in developing countries, there’s no reason why we can’t finance clean energy in developing countries,” Biden said Friday in his speech at COP27 in Egypt.Biden’s comments reflect his delicate dance with Beijing over climate policy, as he navigates the overall U.S. relationship with the world’s largest country.Until recently, China has been a major financial backer of coal-fired power plants outside China. At the U.N. General Assembly in September 2021, Beijing said it would stop building coal plants abroad and the Bank of China pledged to end funding for coal power and mining abroad. However, many of the Chinese-financed coal projects that were in progress at the time of the announcement have remained on track to completion.

EPA's revised methane rule would impose tougher fossil fuel measures -The Environmental Protection Agency issued a revised version of its proposed methane rule Friday that would impose tougher measures on the fossil fuel industry than an earlier draft of the regulations aimed at curbing the potent greenhouse gas. The EPA announced the supplemental draft rule at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt where President Joe Biden spoke Friday about the U.S. stepping up its efforts to reduce carbon emissions, including through the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act. This methane rule will have a stiff regulatory impact in New Mexico, where the oil-rich Permian Basin enables the state to have the second-highest fossil fuel production in the country.

EPA Announces More Stringent Methane Measures - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced that it is strengthening its proposed standards to cut methane and other air pollution. If finalized, the standards will protect workers and communities, maintain and create high-quality, union-friendly jobs, and promote U.S. innovation and manufacturing of critical new technologies, all while delivering significant economic benefits through increased recovery of wasted gas, the EPA noted. The updates, which supplement proposed standards the EPA released back in November 2021, reflect input and feedback from a broad range of stakeholders, and nearly half a million public comments, according to the EPA. The organization said the updates would provide more comprehensive requirements to reduce pollution, “including from hundreds of thousands of existing oil and gas sources nationwide”. “The United States is once again a global leader in confronting the climate crisis, and we must lead by example when it comes to tackling methane pollution – one of the biggest drivers of climate change,” EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said in an EPA statement. “We’re listening to public feedback and strengthening our proposed oil and gas industry standards, which will enable innovative new technology to flourish while protecting people and the planet. Our stronger standards will work hand in hand with the historic level of resources from the Inflation Reduction Act to protect our most vulnerable communities and to put us on a path to achieve President Biden’s ambitious climate goals,” he added. In response to the EPA’s supplemental proposed methane rule, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Senior Vice President of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs, Frank Macchiarola, said, “API looks forward to reviewing the proposed rule in its entirety and will continue to work with EPA in support of a final rule that is cost-effective, promotes innovation, and creates the regulatory certainty needed for long-term planning”. “Federal regulation of methane crafted to build on industry’s progress can help accelerate emissions reductions while developing reliable American energy. API’s member companies are continuously advancing and deploying new technology to improve methane detection and reduction, and we support efforts to promote this innovation rather than inhibiting it with overly prescriptive red tape,” Macchiarola added. “Our industry is taking action, and as a result, methane emissions relative to production fell 60 percent from 2011 to 2020. Industry-led initiatives like The Environmental Partnership are helping to continue that progress with the goal of further reducing methane emissions in every major U.S. basin,” he continued. Also commenting on the supplemental proposed methane rule, the American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC) said, “our industry is committed to working with EPA on the federal regulation of methane, in a manner that creates regulatory certainty and allows for domestic producers to provide America and the world with affordable and reliable energy”. “While we are still digesting the full proposal, at the onset we appreciate EPA’s inclusion of many of the recommendations we made for needed changes and clarifications for upstream. We still have concerns that should be addressed to make key provisions truly workable, but we will continue to work with EPA on meaningful solutions,” AXPC added.

At COP27, the US Said It Will Lead Efforts to Halt Deforestation. But at Home, the Biden Administration Is Considering Massive Old Growth Logging Projects - Inside Climate News—The U.S. Center at the COP27 climate talks in Sharm El-Sheikh hosted a panel Monday focused on ending global deforestation by 2030, but the reality on the ground in the nation’s forests looks quite different. Just hours before the discussion, conservation groups released a report showing that federal agencies are considering multiple logging projects, including on about 370,000 acres with mature and old-growth trees that remove planet-heating carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The latest discussions in Egypt came a year after 145 countries, including the United States, signed the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use, pledging to conserve forests and accelerate their restoration to slow global warming. But U.S. plans to log federal lands show it’s easier to make non-binding climate promises than to keep them.Forests are a crucial part of slowing the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases because they have the potential to remove up to one-third of human emissions of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, according to a 2019 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But recent increase in wildfires, as well as research on forest health, suggest that those calculations may not be accurate. Some stressed and overheated forests could soon emit more carbon than they store.The panelists at Monday’s session talked about “leveraging investments” and “catalyzing partnerships” to boost a vast global carbon accounting system by which wealthy regions or countries can continue to emit greenhouse gases by paying others to maintain forests that take them out of the atmosphere. The Paris Agreement recognizes forests as important carbon sinks for such offset programs, said Prakash Kashwan, who researches environmental and climate justice, climate governance and decolonizing conservation at Brandeis University. “Forests are believed to be among the cheapest sources of carbon offsets,” he said, “though such a characterization is grossly misleading because it doesn’t account for the social and ecological impacts of maintaining forests as a sort of carbon sink. Even so, it doesn’t look like forests can escape the encroachment of carbon markets.” He said forest-based carbon offsets should generally only be used within national boundaries in countries with good forest management to ensure that the accounting is reliable and transparent. Forests in the Global South are unreliable sources of greenhouse gas reductions for offsets because of the lack of good management and enforcement, he said, which means that there “is a much greater chance of producing spurious credits,” he said. And in countries in the Southern hemisphere where governments control most of the forests, the odds are high for corruption, he added. “Most importantly, most forests in the Global South have the presence of Indigenous peoples and other rural populations whose traditional rights in these lands have either not been recognized or, even if legally recognized, those rights are openly flouted by government forestry agencies because of the influx of conservation-related funds, and now carbon offset funds,” he said.

UN climate summit releases draft of long-sought ‘loss and damage’ agreement - A draft agreement for the international COP27 climate summit includes funds for “loss and damages,” a long-sought provision paying reparations to countries on the front lines of environmental disaster. The draft, released Monday, must be agreed to by the nearly 200 nations attending the conference and will likely undergo major amendments if it survives that process at all. Under the draft text, participating countries would begin a two-year implementation process and be ready to put a funding mechanism into action no later than COP29 in 2024. The draft includes an option whereby a funding arrangement, which could involve a United Nations (U.N.) funding facility, is ready to be implemented by November 2024. Another option offered by the draft would consider a “mosaic” of funding arrangements, including the U.N. The text does not include details that have often been major bones of contention in the loss and damages debate, including definitions of exactly what kind of damages would be covered or how much would be paid. The nations at the greatest risk from climate change have long called for such a fund from developed and Western nations. Developed countries such as Canada, Denmark and Germany have signaled support for the idea before, but it has historically gotten nowhere at the COP summit, with wealthier nations unable to agree on their own liability for greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier this year, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said the U.S. was open to loss and damages, saying American delegates are “100 percent ready” to discuss it. Kerry was less committal on whether the U.S. or China would pay into such a fund, telling The Guardian over the weekend, “It’s not fully defined. … There are all kinds of different views on what it could be. No one can sign up to something on it, not yet. … We are not at the [financial] facility discussions yet.”

Facing questions about climate aid, Democrats blame the GOP - — A decision made by Democrats when they were writing America’s blockbuster climate bill last summer is surfacing in this desert city months later and causing U.S. officials to defend it. Democratic lawmakers and Biden administration officials often point to Republican opposition when pressed to explain at the global climate talks here why the U.S. has been slow to fulfill its promises on climate aid. But it was House and Senate Democrats, not Republicans, who chose to leave that money out of the climate law known as the Inflation Reduction Act. The package that came together this summer after lengthy negotiations with conservative Democrats in the Senate was filled with incentives for clean energy manufacturing in the United States. One thing that never made it into the text: billions of dollars for other countries that face a barrage of climate effects. Advertisement The budgetary maneuver that Democrats used to pass the bill allows Congress to appropriate spending for all existing programs — including foreign aid budgets. But this time, at least, Democrats decided not to use that spending authority. Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey, one of three Senate Democrats who traveled to the Sinai Peninsula last week to attend the meeting known as COP 27, hinted that some of his Democratic colleagues opposed efforts to include international climate funding in the bill. “There were constraints that were imposed upon the negotiation that required us to pass it with only 50 senatorial votes and then Vice President [Kamala] Harris breaking the tie,” he noted during a Saturday press briefing here. “And with those constraints, we did the absolute best that we could do to pass a historic bill. We are more familiar than anyone with what is not included. But that becomes the agenda for the future.” It seems unlikely that Democrats will get another chance anytime soon to pass international climate aid using budget reconciliation, which currently allows Senate Democrats to pass spending measures without Republican help. The process would do them no good if Republicans take control of the House in January, following last week’s midterm elections. That leaves Democrats the difficult task of delivering most of President Joe Biden’s international finance commitments via the regular appropriations process, which requires buy-in from some Senate Republicans. Congress returned to Washington on Monday for a lame-duck legislative period that will be consumed with negotiations over funding the federal government for the next fiscal year and other priorities, like oil and gas permitting reform. Democrats who visited the climate talks last week said the reconciliation process could potentially deliver climate finance in the future if Democrats control both chambers in a subsequent Congress. However some lawmakers seemed resigned to the idea of having to ask Republicans for help. “But we’d rather do things bipartisan, including our international commitments to help other countries,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) who led the Senate delegation at the climate conference. “We know there’s Republican support for it, but they have to be courageous enough to help us deal with some of these issues. And sometimes they’re not.”

Draft Cop27 agreement fails to call for ‘phase-down’ of all fossil fuels - The UN climate agency has published a first draft on Thursday of what could be the overarching agreement from the Cop27 climate summit in Egypt However, much of the text is likely to be reworked in the coming days.The reaction from some NGOs has been swift and frustrated, with one Greenpeace representative saying it paved the way for “climate hell”. The document, labeled a “non-paper”, indicating it is still far from the final version, repeats the goal from last year’s Glasgow climate pact to “to accelerate measures towards the phase-down of unabated coal power and phase out and rationalise inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”. Last year was the first time a decision agreed by all parties even mentioned fossil fuels and coal as part of the climate.But it does not call for a phase-down of all fossil fuels, as India and the EU had requested. The text does not include details for launching a fund for loss and damage, a key demand from the most climate vulnerable countries such as island nations. Rather, it “welcomes” the fact that parties have agreed for the first time to include “matters related to funding arrangements responding to loss and damage” on the summit agenda.It does not include a timeline for deciding on whether a separate fund should be created or what it should look like, giving time for negotiators to continue to working on the contentious topic.The document “stresses the importance of exerting all efforts at all levels to achieve the Paris agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels”. The document is based on requests that delegates from almost 200 countries have sought to be included in the final deal. It will provide a basis for negotiations over the coming days that are likely to substantially flesh out and rework the text.

Cop27: EU agrees to loss and damage fund to help poor countries amid climate disasters - A breakthrough looked possible in the deadlocked global climate talks on Friday as the European Union made a dramatic intervention to agree to key developing world demands on financial help for poor countries. In the early hours of Friday at the Cop27 UN climate summit in Egypt, the European Commission vice-president, Frans Timmermans, launched a proposal on behalf of the EU that would see it agree to establishing a loss and damage fund. Rich countries had been holding out against this key demand, arguing it would take time to establish whether such a fund was needed, and how it would operate. Timmermans said on Friday morning the EU had listened to the G77 group of developing countries, for whom the establishment of a fund at this summit is a core demand. Loss and damage refers to the ravages of extreme weather on the physical and social infrastructure of poor countries, and the finance needed for rescue and reconstruction after climate-related disasters. Timmermans said: “We were reluctant about a fund, it was not our idea to have a fund. My reluctance was because I know from experience it takes time before a fund can be established, and more time before it is filled, whereas we have existing instruments. I really believe we could move faster with existing instruments [for climate finance]. But since they [the G77] are so attached to a fund, we have agreed.” Timmermans added that “clear conditions” would be attached to any fund. It would be geared towards supporting the most vulnerable, with a broad financial donor base contributing. The fund would not operate in isolation, but as part of a mosaic of solutions that includes reform of multilateral development banks, for example. In parallel, the EU wants more ambition on cutting emissions, with stronger provisions on updated national plans for emissions cuts in line with the 1.5-degree target in the Paris Agreement and peaking global emissions by 2025. “This would have to be a package deal,” Timmermans said. Developing countries are considering the proposal. Carla Barnett, the secretary general of the Caribbean Community, gave an ambivalent response: “There’s only one option for small island developing states, a financing fund that delivers a just pathway for the future of our countries. Division and delay tactics will not work. This is a matter we defend on the basis of justice.”

U.S. silent on surprise aid plan as climate talks stagger - — Climate talks here were thrown into disarray by a surprise proposal from the European Union that would support calls for sending climate aid to vulnerable nations by getting countries including China and the U.S. to pay up. The move deepened schisms with China as the talks lurched toward an uncertain conclusion this weekend, inflaming decades-old disagreements about China’s role in alleviating the impacts of climate change on poor countries. The United States, which has refused to offer details about where it stands on climate aid, was silent on the E.U. plan. The issue — known in this desert beach city as compensation for loss and damage — has been the focus of this year’s negotiations. As the talks wind down, various proposals from different negotiating blocs are creating dividing lines that could make or break the final outcome. “We see this as a climate justice issue, and if this continues to be kicked down the road we will see it as justice denied,” said Sherry Rachman, environment minister of Pakistan, where record-breaking floods have cost the country more than $30 billion. “Vulnerability should not become a death sentence because that is what many economies and countries and people are facing.” This year’s talks come at a time of political and economic turmoil and rising inequality in the face of more extreme climate-fueled disasters. That has hardened countries’ positions on issues like climate aid, threatening agreement in a process that depends on consensus. The impromptu proposal from the European Union on Thursday night for a loss and damage fund earned tepid support from some countries — and silence from others. It would create a dedicated fund for the most climate-threatened countries that draws on a “broad donor base” and a “mosaic” of other sources of funding, including levies on air travel, shipping and fossil fuels, said E.U. climate chief Frans Timmermans. It also seeks steeper emissions cuts from major economies to help stave off disasters. “The most vulnerable countries will push for his offer as they want a loss and damage finance fund and they want more emissions reductions so they can mitigate the harm they suffer today and the damages they’ll face ahead,” said Jake Schmidt, director of the international climate program at the Natural Resources Defense Council. But it could drive a wedge in the large negotiating bloc pushing for a fund at the talks depending on how most vulnerable is defined. The bloc known as the G-77+China is comprised of 134 countries that range from small-island nations to emerging economies The E.U. attached a rider to its proposal that sought to draw funding from some of those big emerging economies like China. European and American officials have insisted that it is now time for China, the third-largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases and the largest today, to be obligated to contribute funds for climate aid. China responded to the E.U. proposal by saying it wasn’t time to rewrite the Paris Agreement.

U.S. isolated on loss and damage - — The United States is now seen as the biggest obstacle to what poor countries want most out of these talks — a new fund dedicated to help them bounce back from climate disasters. The overwhelming majority of countries at the U.N. climate conference that wraps up Friday in this eccentric and campy Red Sea resort town are demanding a new funding mechanism to help developing nations deal with climate damages that are now unavoidable. Divisions over that issue could prevent leaders from reaching a decision at the summit. The determination of poor nations to break through a 30-year logjam on post-disaster support is heightened by the sheer number of catastrophes that have pummeled rich and poor countries alike in recent years — but which have hit the poorest ones hardest. The U.S. delegation has refused to say plainly what its position is on the creation of a so-called loss and damage facility, which is a top ask for 134 of the 197 countries gathered at this meeting. Instead, the U.S. has asked for more time to study the idea and has suggested that disaster recovery should be handled through existing channels with missions like cutting pollution and preventing climate damage in advance. It’s a position that to many here seems like foot-dragging from the country with the most wealth and the greatest historic responsibility for climate change. The apparent isolation of the U.S. on the issue was thrown into starker relief Wednesday when the European Union, which has historically stood arm in arm with the U.S. against paying climate reparations, seemed to shift its stance. European Commission Executive Vice President Frans Timmermans said at the talks here that it’s time for wealthy countries to “start delivering money to the most vulnerable.” He announced that the E.U. would back an agreement at this meeting that includes the creation of a new fund for reparations — as one option. Timmermans told reporters that there is now daylight between the E.U. and the U.S., which he said remained “extremely reluctant as to a specific, dedicated instrument” on loss and damage. But it’s not clear how deep the divisions actually are. The U.S. has not ruled out eventually agreeing to a new funding mechanism, and the E.U. hasn’t committed to one. Both parties say a decision on a new fund should be made in the future. Timmermans said last night that a decision would be ripe at next year’s climate talks in the United Arab Emirates, while the U.S. has not given a timeline. U.S. climate envoy John Kerry told reporters over the weekend that the U.S. might be ready to agree to a new fund within months or a year of this meeting’s conclusion. But climate experts who have spoken to the U.S. delegation here say it still prefers a three-year process like the one set up at last year’s summit in Glasgow, Scotland, but with a commitment that a decision be made at the 2024 meeting.

Ethanol production in Brazil expected to increase 9% this year -Total ethanol production in Brazil is expected to be up nearly 9 percent this year, with fuel ethanol production up by nearly 8 precent, according to a report filed with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Information Network. Corn ethanol production is also expected to increase significantly. Brazil is expected to produce 31.655 billion liters (8.36 billion gallons) of ethanol in 2022, up from 29.98 billion liters in 2021 but still below the 37.383 billion liters and 35.081 billion liters of production reported for 2019 and 2020, respectively. Fuel ethanol production is expected to reach 28.421 billion liters this year, compared to 26.195 billion liters last year. Fuel ethanol production was at 34.407 billion liters in 2019 and 30.897 billion liters in 2020. Brazil is expected to import only 605 million liters of ethanol this year, including 600 million liters of fuel ethanol. Imports were at 432 million liters and 427 million liters, respectively, in 2021. The U.S. was the top supplier of ethanol to Brazil in 2021 at 269.483 million liters, followed by Paraguay at 162.535 million liters and Canada at 140,000 liters. Ethanol exports are expected to fall to 1.55 billion liters this year, down from 1.948 billion liters in 2021 and 2.669 billion liters in 2020. Fuel ethanol exports are expected to be at 250 million liters this year, down from 300 million liters last year and 850 million liters in 2020. South Korea was the top destination for Brazilian ethanol exports last year, at 778.44 million liters, followed by the U.S. at 465.46 million liters and the Netherlands at 118.384 million liters. Ethanol consumption in Brazil is expected to reach 29.599 billion liters in 2022, up slightly from 29.545 billion liters in 2021. Ethanol consumption was at 34.973 billion liters in 2019 and 31.296 billion liters in 2020. Fuel ethanol consumption is expected at 27.665 billion liters this year, up slightly from 27.408 billion liters last year. Fuel ethanol consumption was at 32.848 billion liters in 2019 and 28.932 billion liters in 2020. The overall ethanol blend rate for transportation fuel is expected to be at 49 percent in 2022, compared to 48.8 percent last year, 52.5 percent in 2020 and 54.1 percent in 2019. Brazil currently has an estimated 337 sugarcane ethanol refineries with a combined nameplate capacity of 54.28 billion liters, compared to 343 facilities with a combined 50.5 billion liters of capacity in 2021. The country also has 18 facilities that can process both corn and sugarcane, compared to 19 last year and 11 in 2020. Capacity for these facilities is currently estimated at 5 billion liters per year, compared to 4 billion liters per year in 2021 and 2.5 billion liters per year in 2020. Capacity use for facilities that can process both feedstocks is expected to be at 48 percent this year, flat with last year.An estimated 338.75 million metric tons of sugarcane is expected to be used as feedstock for ethanol production this year, compared to 333.05 million metric tons last year. According to the report, Brazil’s ethanol producers will also process 10.791 million metric tons of corn this year, up form 7.904 million metric tons in 2021 and 5.827 million metric tons in 2020. The country’s cellulosic plants will process an estimated 306,000 metric tons of bagasse as feedstock in 2022, compared to 222,000 metric tons last year and 178,000 metric tons in 2020.

Biofuel Research: Full Decarbonization of U.S. Aviation Sector Is Within Grasp - Every day in the United States, 45,000 planes fly across the country carrying some 1.7 million passengers. A frequent traveler’s individual contribution to climate change is dominated by aviation, and yet is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize.The United States is the largest contributor to aviation carbon dioxide emissions in the world. In fact, it is responsible for more than a quarter of all carbon dioxide emitted from flying.But what if we could make all U.S. air travel nearly emissions free?What if we could replace carbon-intensive jet fossil fuels with a cleaner alternative: biojet fuels derived from rain-fed grass grown in the U.S.?New research that will be published today (November 14) in the journal Nature Sustainability shows a pathway toward full decarbonization of U.S. aviation fuel use by substituting conventional jet fuel with sustainably produced biofuels.The study, led by a team of Arizona State University researchers, found that planting the grass miscanthus on 23.2 million hectares of existing marginal agricultural lands – land that often lays fallow or is poor in soil quality – across the United States would provide enough biomass feedstock to meet the liquid fuel demands of the U.S. aviation sector fully from biofuels, an amount expected to reach 30 billion gallons/year by 2040.“We demonstrate that it is within reach for the United States to decarbonize the fuel used by commercial aviation, without having to wait for electrification of aircraft propulsion,” said Nazli Uludere Aragon, co-corresponding author on the study and a recent ASU Geography PhD graduate.“If we are serious about getting to net zero greenhouse gas emissions, we need to deal with emissions from air travel which are expected to grow under a business-as-usual scenario. Finding alternative, more sustainable liquid fuel sources for aviation is key to this.”

Dueling views on carbon capture pipelines play out in downtown Des Moines - The U.S. must ramp up carbon-capture efforts 200-fold to reach its net-zero emissions goal by 2050, work that's slated to get big boost from billions of dollars in federal support, experts at the National Carbon Capture Conference & Expo said this week in Des Moines.It's a message that Iowa and Midwest ethanol plant operators have embraced. Three companies — Summit Carbon Solutions, Navigator CO2 Ventures and Wolf Carbon Solutions — have proposed building pipelines to capture carbon dioxide from ethanol, fertilizer and other energy-intensive operations. Liquefied under pressure, the potent greenhouse gas would be pumped via the pipelines to deep subterranean sequester sites in Illinois and North Dakota.But the projects have been controversial in Iowa, with opponents concerned about pipeline safety, the impact on farmland the pipelines would cross and the likelihood developers will be granted eminent domain powers to force property owners to sell access to their land.Protesters blowing whistles and shouting obscenities interrupted the event Tuesday. And pipeline opponents held panels and workshops Wednesday, concluding with a rally that started at Cowles Commons in downtown Des Moines and ended at the Iowa Events Center, where the conference was held.Pointing to a carbon dioxide pipeline breach in Satartia, Mississippithat sickened dozens of people, protesters including members of Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement said they wanted to take action while they could still make a difference."We need to be directing public resources into proven measures to combat the climate crisis, such as an expedited, just transition to 100% carbon-free energy, a climate conservation corps for rematriating native prairie, wetlands and forests, and regenerative agricultural practices," the protesters said in a statement after leaving the conference.Pipeline developers, who have pledged to exceed federal safety requirements when building the projects, have repeatedly said the pipelines are safe. The companies and ethanol industry leaders said carbon capture is essential to help lower greenhouse gas emissions so that the renewable fuel ― of which Iowa is that nation's largest producer ― can be sold in California and other low-carbon fuel markets. Already, 25% of U.S. ethanol plants capture their carbon dioxide emissions for use in beverage and other industries, said Chris Bliley, senior vice president of regulatory affairs at Growth Energy, a Washington, D.C., lobbying group. "This is a tremendous opportunity for our biofuel producers," he said, adding that low-carbon ethanol also will be needed to develop sustainable aviation fuel.

Cayuga RNG signs agreement for renewable natural gas project - Cayuga RNG recently entered into an agreement to develop its fifth project to produce renewable natural gas (RNG) in upstate New York. Cayuga RNG will modify an existing anaerobic biogas facility to generate RNG at New Hope View Farms, a fifth-generation dairy farm in Homer, N.Y. The project is expected to produce approximately 35 million cubic feet of RNG annually. The gas will be transported using a local natural gas pipeline that serves the regional distribution system. GHI Energy will be the exclusive marketer. “RNG continues to be a key platform for growth at UGI, and we are excited to partner with New Hope to expand our RNG business in New York, where we just celebrated our first project being placed in service last month,” Robert F. Beard, UGI Corp. executive vice president of natural gas, said. The project is expected to be completed in the second half of 2024. Cayuga RNG is a joint venture of UGI Energy Services, a subsidiary of UGI, and Global Common Ventures. UGI is a distributor and marketer of energy products and services. Its subsidiaries operate natural gas and electric utilities in Pennsylvania.

Electric Truck Stops Will Need as Much Power as a Small Town - Next month, Tesla Inc. plans to deliver the first of its electric Semi trucks—able to haul a full 40 ton-load some 500 miles on a single charge. These massive batteries-on-wheels may accelerate the transition to electrified transport, but those responsible for delivering the power are starting to ask: Are we ready for this? Probably not, according to a sweeping new study of highway charging requirements conducted by utility company National Grid Plc. Researchers found that by 2030, electrifying a typical highway gas station will require as much power as a professional sports stadium—and that’s mostly just for electrified passenger vehicles. As more electric trucks hit the road, the projected power needs for a big truck stop by 2035 will equal that of a small town.

 Why famine-hit Somalia didn't get climate aid: It has no coal - E New climate aid is finally beginning to flow to poorer nations that burn fossil fuels. Left on the sidelines are countries that use some of the smallest amounts of energy in the world. Many of the programs unveiled here at the global climate summit known as COP 27 benefit emerging countries with power grids that buzz with electricity derived from coal. They so far are not helping nations where electric lights and gas cooking remain stubbornly elusive. These places emit almost no climate pollution but are seeing the deadly effects of rising temperatures. Salah Ahmed Jama, the deputy prime minister of Somalia, sees inequity in the sudden eagerness of wealthy nations to preserve the global goal of limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius by doling out grants and loans to carbon-intensive poor countries. Less aid seems to be available to countries like his own, he said, even though they are on the front lines of climate change and did almost nothing to create the problem. “The question is, for a country that emits 0.00-something percent of greenhouse gas emissions globally, for a continent — Africa — that contributes only 4 percent of emissions and in which 600 million people have no access to electricity and hundreds of millions live in poverty, should there not be a special set of arrangements?” Jama said in an interview. Somalia is the second-poorest country in the world based on gross national income, and 70 percent of its citizens lack access to electricity. Somalia doesn’t have the infrastructure that would qualify it to take part in a so-called Just Energy Transition Partnership of the kind announced here Tuesday for Indonesia. A cadre of rich countries, including the United States, offered $20 billion to bankroll Indonesia’s transition to renewable energy in exchange for a commitment that it retire its large fleet of coal-fired power plants early. An earlier agreement will phase out South Africa’s coal plants. Others are being worked on for Vietnam, India and Senegal. A country like Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, would also be better suited than Somalia to attract tens of billions in leveraged private capital that U.S. climate envoy John Kerry hopes to raise with his proposed Energy Transition Accelerator, which would raise funds through the sale of carbon offsets. The initiative seeks to harness corporate dollars to shut down coal plants in the developing world and replace them with green energy. It remains a concept, and a range of countries, including Somalia, might ultimately benefit from a share of the money it raises for adaptation. Somalia and its neighbors in the Horn of Africa are in desperate need of adaptation money. Jama said Somalia’s plan to defend its citizens from climate-related disasters could cost an unaffordable $55 billion over 10 years — and the country is barred from taking on new debt because it is participating in an International Monetary Fund debt reduction program. The Horn of Africa is in the midst of a devastating drought that began in early 2021. As of August, it had pushed more than 1 million Somalis off their land in search of water and food, according to the U.N. refugee agency. That’s in addition to nearly 3 million Somalis who were already internally displaced persons, or IDPs, because of factors like the armed insurgency that the government has been battling since 2006. A famine is now on the horizon, and it could affect almost half of the country’s 17 million residents. “They’re losing their cattle. They’re losing their livestock. They’re losing their harvest,” Jama said. “They’re losing their very way of life, their livelihood.” In Somalia, there’s no safety net. “In the past, if somebody in the countryside herding goats, sheep or camels loses 15 percent of his stock, it was easy for the person to make a comeback and adjust,” Jama said. “But now it is a very profound loss. A very stable, self-reliant household could become destitute IDPs overnight.” Still, he rejects the idea that international aid is a humanitarian program. “The occurrence of the droughts, the lack of water is a developmental issue,” Jama said. “If we had resources to invest in the canals and the wells, water harvesting and energy, we would not be having this humanitarian crisis again and again.”

Nickel mine could open in Minnesota amid rising electric vehicle demand, raising concerns: "It's going to devastate the land" - As demand for electric cars continues to grow, so does the need for a mineral critical to its function: nickel, which makes batteries last longer, so cars can go farther. But the United States produces less than 1% of the world's nickel supply, and American electric vehicle makers rely on supplies from places like Russia, China and Indonesia.Now, one metals company, Talon, wants to turn 100 acres of American farmland into the largest source of nickel in the United States — but some are concerned about the possible impact. Talon recently launched the Tamarack Nickel-Copper-Cobalt Project located in Tamarack, Minnesota, with the goal of providing a domestic source of nickel to be used in the electric vehicle industry. The metals company drilled nearly 500 test holes — and found some of the world's best nickel. "This is a world class deposit," Todd Malan, chief external affairs officer and head of climate strategy for Talon Metals, told CBS News. With the success of the test holes, Talon hopes to open the mine in 2026, when the only other nickel mine in the United States is set to close. It is expected to bring more than 300 jobs to the state, and the company already has a deal to supply nickel to Tesla. It still needs to be approved by the state of Minnesota before it officially opens. But some in the area have questions. "Where is the scientific data that says this is safe?" said Melanie Benjamin, who leads the executive branch of the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe, whose tribal land in less than two miles from the proposed mine.Benjamin worries about pollution impacting the fragile wetlands where native tribes fish and hunt and have harvested wild rice for generations. "There is a spiritual connection to the water, to the plants, to the animals, to the land. It's going to devastate the land, and the land may never come back from that devastation. That's pretty scary," said Benjamin. Local homeowners in Tamarack are also worried about sulfuric acid runoff from the mine leaking into pristine waterways.But Talon said it will process the nickel out of state, and that the deep-underground mine poses little risk to the environment. Still, many have a hard time taking a mining company at its word. "Asking Talon or asking any mining company about how they're going to take care of the community environment is kind of like asking the fox how he's taking care of the chicken coop,"

EV charging station rollout hampered by outdated state, city regulations: report - Spurred by multi-billion-dollar federal funding programs for electric vehicle charging infrastructure and fast-growing EV sales, companies are looking to place charging stations at convenience stores, coffee shops, multifamily housing structures and elsewhere. But, they’re hindered by nonexistent, inappropriate or outdated policies and permitting processes, said John Eichberger, executive director at theFuels Institute, a non-advocacy research organization.“You’ve got zoning requirements and permitting processes that are not designed for this type of equipment, and so they're trying to take outdated programs and apply it to this,” Eichberger said, adding that some localities are treating EV charging stations like a “petroleum storage tank system.”A report issued this month by the Fuels Institute’s Electric Vehicle Council revealed that most states and localities surveyed had little to no policies for public EV charging. Of 100 localities surveyed in the organization’s prior 2021 report, 49 cities or counties had established ordinances or other regulations governing EV charging installations; 23 of them were in California.Local policies often include requirements for parking and signage; design, installation and technical issues; EV-ready building codes; and permitting specific to nonresidential charging stations. EV-ready parking spaces include a junction box or 240-volt outlet. Some localities require new construction to include EV-capable parking spaces, which means the parking space has the basic wiring for future EV charging in place. Atlanta requires 20% of parking spaces in new commercial and multifamily structures to be "EV ready." Seattle and Chicago require minimums for EV-ready parking spaces in nonresidential spaces of 10% and 20%, respectively, while San Jose, California, requires that 10% be installed and 40% be EV-capable.Some cities have developed guidelines, checklists and websites for EV infrastructure applications. Houston enables applications to be submitted online. But in too many cases, Eichberger said, charging station providers have found it can take up to two years to get the necessary permits. As of 2020, 10 states had adopted installation-related policies, and five had operations-related policies. California and Connecticut prohibit EV service providers from charging subscription fees or imposing membership requirements to use their public charging stations.

‘A sobering assessment’: Large parts of US at risk of outages during extreme weather this winter: NERC -Large swaths of North America face elevated reliability risks this winter, generally driven by factors such as higher peak demand and power plant retirements, according to Fritz Hirst, NERC director of legislative and regulatory affairs. NERC, North America’s grid reliability watchdog, is set to release its annual winter reliability assessment on Thursday, Hirst said Sunday at the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners’ annual meeting in New Orleans.The report reviews how prepared – or not – regions are to withstand extreme winter weather, which can drive up electric use, reduce fuel supplies for generators and knock power plants offline.“It’s a sobering assessment … a large portion of North America is at risk of insufficient supplies during the extreme winter scenarios,” Hirst said.Although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a milder-than-normal winter for most of North America, an extended cold snap can cause reliability problems, Hirst said.In a change from last year’s assessment, the Southeast, Alberta and Canada’s Maritime provinces face an elevated reliability risk during extreme weather this winter, according to Hirst.The Southeast has lost 500 MW of generating capacity while demand has increased compared to a year ago, Hirst said. Power plants in the region have lower-than-normal coal stockpiles, he said.In Alberta and the Maritime provinces, added generation hasn’t kept pace with growing electricity demand, according to Hirst.In the U.S., the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator and ISO New England again face elevated winter reliability risks during extreme weather, Hirst said. In New England, which is limited in its ability to import natural gas, storage tanks at oil-fired power plants are only about 40% full, down from 54% last winter, he said.

Inflation's next victim: U.S. offshore wind projects - A rising tide of interest rates, supply chain bottlenecks and inflation is threatening the Biden administration’s ambitious offshore wind targets, creating a significant challenge for one of the president’s top climate priorities. Recent weeks have seen a series of developers raise concerns over rising costs. In New Jersey, a developer warned earlier this month that a planned 98-turbine project off the coast of New Jersey could threaten its finances. In New England, two developers with contracts to sell power to Massachusetts have sought to renegotiate the deals, only to get shot down by state regulators. Many developers bid aggressively in state auctions to win those contracts but are now locked into agreements that didn’t account for rising costs, said Sam Huntington, director of North American power and renewables at S&P Global Commodity Insights. The financial difficulties call into question the Biden administration’s goal of installing 30 gigawatts of offshore wind power by the end of this decade. “We don’t see them hitting that,” Huntington said. “It is going to be something to watch. I don’t have a good sense of whether these will get renegotiated or canceled.” The doubts are shared by other analysts. Bloomberg New Energy Finance sees the United States falling 3 to 4 GW short of its 2030 target due to long development timelines and an immature supply chain. The London-based renewables market intelligence firm Renewables Consulting Group estimates the United States will reach just over 25 GW by 2030. The eroding picture comes as Avangrid Inc. told Massachusetts regulators Monday to continue proceedings to approve power contracts with Bay State utilities in a closely watched back and forth over how states may handle uneasy developers. Earlier this month, the state’s Department of Public Utilities (DPU) rejected the company’s request for a one-month stay on finalizing the developer’s power purchase contracts, despite Avangrid’s claim that its planned wind farm is no longer viable. Regulators demanded that Avangrid either recommit to moving forward or to canceling the project (Energywire, Nov. 7). For its part, Avangrid had hoped a delay would allow it to renegotiate how much it’s paid for the electricity produced from its offshore wind farm to help offset rising costs linked to global commodity price spikes, inflation and supply chain constraints.

 Fossil fuel industry dupes media, quietly funds non-profits to block renewable energy -Shortly after he took office, President Biden announced a goal of building 30 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2030, enough clean energy to power 10 million homes. For the administration, the offshore wind target was a part of a larger strategy of reducing carbon pollution and putting the country on track for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. But, like many clean energy plans, this one was met with immediate resistance. In August 2021, CBS News reported that Nantucket Residents Against Turbines — or ACK Rats — launched a lawsuit against the administration's offshore wind plans. The Massachusetts-based resident group argued that offshore wind development “poses a threat to the critically endangered North Atlantic Right Whale.” A few months later, a resident group in New Jersey launched another lawsuit against the Biden administration. Bob Stern, president of Save Long Beach Island,told Reuters that he and his fellow residents worried that the wind turbines would destroy their local tourism economy. Within a year of announcing the goal, the Biden administration faced lawsuits from resident groups in every coastal state from Maine to North Carolina. Some groups sued over endangered whales. Others argued that the turbines would hurt their property values or the local fishing industry. If you only read the news stories about these lawsuits, you might think this was yet another example of wealthy residents blocking clean energy development. Or you might see a familiar story of environmentalists getting in the way of environmental progress. But you’d be missing the most important part of the story. Nearly every story neglects to mention these groups are being funded by a far-right think tank that receives funding from fossil fuel companies and billionaires.

China sees rising coal storage amid supply push - Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy regulator said Monday. Storage of coal at the country’s power plants has been above 170 million tonnes since September, according to the National Energy Administration. Faced - with a grave and complex international energy situation, China has stepped up efforts to ensure stable coal supply and increased production, said Liu Tao, an official with the energy regulator. Coal output of major enterprises totaled 3.32 billion tonnes in the first nine months of 2022, up 11.2 percent year on year, while coal production capacity has expanded by more than 62 million tonnes this year, the regulator said. Data also showed that renewable energy accounted for 78.8 percent of the newly installed power generation capacity in the first three quarters.

China Embraces Increased Coal Use For Energy Security - China is adding coal plants to tackle energy security concerns, but this doesn’t mean it is backing away from its previously stated emissions curbs, Chinese delegates said at the COP27 summit this week.China may be adding new coal plants to prevent a repeat poor performance from recent years that triggered electricity shortages in the Asian nation, but these coal plants will serve as a buffer to volatile global energy markets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country’s delegates said.Previous figures from a senior researcher at State Grid of China Corp Energy Research Institute estimated China’s coal expansion would total 270GW of new plants through 2025—more than what the United States has now. Eventually, China’s rise in coal use will be halted when its electricity market reforms and increases in renewable power and energy storage kick in. China is still planning on reaching peak emissions by 2030, and net zero emissions by 2060, they said.But for now, coal use is an unfortunate necessity if the country wants to keep from following in its own footsteps in prior years, and in the EU’s current footsteps that have left it wondering if it’s going to make it through this winter and next without serious power blackouts.=“We don’t want to be like Europe and transform at the cost of energy security. They are now declaring that they are taking a step back in order to take two steps forward later,” Li Zheng, climate change and energy professor at Tsinghua University, said, adding that China needed an energy transition plan that was secure so that it could be sustained.But some climate scientists are not satisfied with this explanation for the increased coal use, arguing that 2040 is the drop-dead date for phasing out coal if the planet hopes to prevent the worst effects of climate change.It should be noted that China also holds the world’s largest fleet of renewable power generation, according to BloombergNEF figures.

Asia’s coal phase-out must be gradual, says Mitsubishi Heavy head - Asia must phase out coal power gradually while still making use of existing infrastructure to make the shift to a carbon-neutral society less disruptive, Seiji Izumisawa, president of Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, told Reuters on Monday. Efforts to stave off disastrous climate change by a shift to renewable energy have been hampered by a global energy crisis and soaring fuel prices, as Russia sharply cut natural gas deliveries to Europe following its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Business leaders and policymakers of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies are converging on a view that relying solely on renewable energy may not work, Izumisawa said in an interview. “Previously, the discussion was binary in which you had to choose between renewable energy or existing technology. Now, it’s moving toward how to get the best mix of both,” said Izumisawa, who co-chaired a task A “realistic” mix of renewable energy and greener existing infrastructure is needed to help Asia’s emerging economies meet a power consumption boom in coming years, Izumisawa said. Asia may eventually wean itself off coal-fired plants “but the question is timing,” Izumisawa said on calls from the global community for the region to phase out use of the fossil fuel. “You have to think not just about renewable energy, but how to make better use of resources like coal and LNG,” he said. Shifting to liquefied natural gas (LNG) turbines, or usage of ammonia as a fuel at coal-fired power plants, may be the near-term solution for Asian nations still relying on coal, and also where the business opportunities are, said Izumisawa. Asia has been slow in embracing the tough definition used by Europe for labelling projects climate friendly as the region’s emerging economies heavily rely on coal and other fossil fuels, and struggle to fund the transition to more expensive renewable energy. Japan, the world’s fifth-biggest CO2 emitter, has also called for more focus on promoting the transition of existing fuel plants to greener energy resources. Indonesia is the world’s fourth-most populous country and eighth-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, with coal making up about 65% of its total energy mix. The Southeast Asian nation, this year’s G20 host, is also the world’s biggest coal exporter.

New report: Indiana is failing to clean up its toxic coal ash pits -- Indiana is among the worst states in the country when it comes to cleaning up its toxic coal ash pits, according to a new report on these dangerous sites and their pollution. The Environmental Integrity Project and Earthjustice, two environmental nonprofits, released an analysis Thursday of hundreds of coal ash ponds and landfills across the country. The groups looked at documented groundwater contamination around the sites, plans to clean up the contamination, and whether utilities are complying with the federal rule that established first-ever protective requirements on coal ash disposal. According to the report, the vast majority of utilities are not in compliance for dealing with the cancer-causing coal byproduct. There are compliance failures at 16 leaking ash disposal sites across Indiana, according to the report. It is tied with Illinois for having the most problem pits, the report shows. Across those sites, Indiana has more than 80 pits holding the cancer-causing coal byproduct. That’s more than any other state in America.Indiana’s coal ash concerns have long been documented throughextensive IndyStar coverage. Environmental organizations and communities surrounding the power plants have also criticized the state’s and utilities’ handling of the toxic ash pits. The report evaluated 292 regulated coal plants across the country, analyzing contamination from their coal ash pits and landfills as well as any plans that are in place to clean-up the pollution and to close the ash dumps. According to the report, it presents evidence of contamination at more plants than were previously documented — 265 of 292, or 91% — and also describes significant noncompliance that allows harmful pollution to go unchecked and prevents environmental restoration. There are 16 power plants across Indiana that have harmful levels of pollution exceeding safe levels as set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. While many of these pits are known to be sitting in groundwater — which allows the toxic heavy metals to leach out — most power companies are planning to leave the ash in place. This goes against the federal coal ash rule, the report says. Several coal ash pits across Indiana were used as examples in the national report for how the federal rule is being “flouted.”

AEP says it is cooperating with feds on House Bill 6 investigation -- American Electric Power has been hit with a second subpoena from federal regulators looking for information tied to the power company's involvement in the scandal-ridden House Bill 6 legislation enacted three years ago to bail out the state's two nuclear power plants.The Columbus-based company disclosed the subpoena from the Securities & Exchange Commission in regulatory filings tied to its third-quarter financial results released Thursday."AEP is cooperating fully with the SEC’s investigation," the company said a filing."We view it as a continuing part of the process," Nick Akins, the company's president, chairman and CEO, told analysts on a conference call when asked about the subpoena. "And we said we would be transparent and we have been transparent and we'll continue to work in a positive fashion with the SEC during their investigation."What exactly the SEC is looking for isn't clear.The first subpoena came in May 2021 from the SEC's Division of Enforcement asking for documents related to the passage of House Bill 6 along with AEP policies and financial processes and controls.Beyond a monthly consumer fee for two nuclear plants in northern Ohio, which never went into effect, the bill shored up the finances of two coal-fired power plants owned by a group of power companies, including AEP. One of the plants is in Ohio.A Dispatch investigation found that AEP contributed $350,000 to a group called Empowering Ohio’s Economy Inc. that has become part of the criminal case against former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder.Householder is accused of selling legislation – a $1.3 billion bailout for nuclear plants – in exchange for a political comeback and paying off personal expenses. If Householder is convicted in federal court, he faces up to 20 years in prison and a permanent ban from serving in the Ohio House. Empowering Ohio’s Economy gave $150,000 to a group called Generation Now, which also received $60 million from interests related to Akron-based FirstEnergy to ensure passage of the legislation.Akins said the company recognized there were issues related to groups such as Empowering Ohio's Economy that needed to be resolved with investigators."Certainly, from our perspective, we'll continue to work with them to get this thing resolved," he said.

Householder attorneys object to allowing First Energy deferred prosecution agreement at trial - Ohio Capital Journal - Attorneys for former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder have objected to allowing First Energy’s deferred prosecution agreement from being introduced as evidence in his upcoming felony racketeering trial.In what the federal prosecutors have called the biggest bribery scandal in state history, Householder and four others were arrested in the summer of 2020. Facing racketeering, money laundering, and other charges, Householder has been accused of accepting more than $60 million from FirstEnergy in donations to nonprofits he secretly controlled to ensure the passage of House Bill 6.Ohio House Bill 6 awarded FirstEnergy $1.3 billion worth of ratepayer funded bailouts for nuclear plants owned at the time by a company subsidiary and ratepayer-funded protections against drops in energy revenues. The alleged scheme also included helping block a ballot initiative for voters to overturn the bailout.Since the indictments, Householder and ex-Ohio Republican Party Chairman Matt Borges have pleaded not guilty. Householder has been removed as speaker and expelled from the House. Two of his associates have pleaded guilty and a third has died by suicide. The nonprofit Generation Now was also indicted and has pleaded guilty.Householder and Borges await trial, currently scheduled for January.FirstEnergy entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with prosecutors in the summer of 2021, admitting using the Generation Now nonprofit to “conceal payments for the benefit of public officials and in return for official action.”It also admitted to giving a $4.3 million bribe to the then-chairman of Ohio’s utility regulator, Sam Randazzo. Randazzo has denied wrongdoing and has not been charged with a crime. He resigned from the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) in November 2020. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who was warned about Randazzo’s ties to the energy industry, has said he does not regret picking Randazzo as Ohio’s top utility regulator.In a motion filed last week, attorneys for Householder and Borges objected to allowing that First Energy agreement with prosecutors, or testimony surrounding it, to be used during their criminal trials.“FirstEnergy’s ability to buy its way out of criminal prosecution (by paying $230 million to the federal government and the State of Ohio) does not make it more likely that the defendants here engaged in criminal conduct,” the attorneys wrote. “And while FirstEnergy admitted to engaging in honest services wire fraud by bribing Householder, that is not a relevant fact at trial either. After all, an alleged coconspirator’s admission of guilt is generally inadmissible.”They argued that a plea or cooperation agreement is only admissible if the cooperating witness testifies at trial.“FirstEnergy, of course, cannot and will not testify at trial. It’s a corporate entity that cannot appear at trial to be examined or cross-examined,” they wrote.Further, they argued it would be “unfairly prejudicial” against the defendants to allow the deferred prosecution agreement to be introduced.“If the Court allows the government to introduce FirstEnergy’s DPA, which contains a detailed 30-page statement of facts, the jury may be inclined to base its verdict on FirstEnergy’s admissions — not on Householder’s actions. Thus, the DPA would lure the jury into determining guilt on grounds separate from proper evidence specific to the offenses charged.”

Shale Permit Activity on the Rise in Columbiana County - Houston-based Hilcorp Energy Co. has received a dozen permits to drill new horizontal wells in the Utica-Point Pleasant formation in Columbiana County, records show. The 12 permits, issued on Nov. 1, are for new wells at the Scheel pad in Elk Run Township, according to the latest data from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. Hilcorp has been awarded 37 permits to drill new wells in the Point Pleasant formation so far this year in Columbiana County, according to ODNR. It has also received seven permits to deepen existing wells in the county. Overall oil and gas production from shale formations is on the rise across the country, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. According to EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report dated Oct. 17, oil production is projected to increase by 104,000 barrels per day to 9.105 million barrels in November across the country’s seven shale formations. Natural gas production is also expected to jump by 554 million cubic feet per day to 95.085 billion cubic feet per day. In Appalachia, which includes the Utica/Point Pleasant in eastern Ohio and the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, oil production is expected to increase by 2,000 barrels per day to 122,000 barrels daily. Natural gas production is also on the rise, EIA data show. In November, natural gas wells in Appalachia are expected to increase output by 89 million cubic feet per day to 35.666 billion cubic feet per day, the agency reported. The Appalachian region continues to be the largest natural gas-producing shale play in the country.

Natural gas prices mean high heating bills, but relief is available – WOUB — Despite record natural gas production, gas prices are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future, meaning higher heating bills for families throughout southeastern Ohio. Monthly U.S. natural gas production reached an all-time high of 2.89 trillion cubic feet in 2022, exceeding the pre-pandemic record of 2.82 trillion cubic feet. However, this increase in production comes at a time when the global demand for natural gas has increased dramatically because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent economic sanctions and wartime disruptions. Russia is the world’s second-largest producer of natural gas and the primary provider of natural gas to Western Europe.  To meet global demand at a time of decreased global production, U.S. producers of natural gas have been exporting more liquified natural gas abroad, pushing U.S. exports to record highs. On top of increased demand, U.S. natural gas storage balances are lower than in previous years. “We’ve seen lower production growth and storage demand, coupled with an increased demand for liquified natural gas,” said Erica Chronaberry, a spokesperson for Columbia Natural Gas of Ohio. Columbia Natural Gas operates a network of pipelines distributing natural gas from producers in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia to consumers throughout Ohio. Columbia’s pipelines are also linked to gas producers in Texas and Louisiana through the Texas Eastern Transmission Pipeline. Chronaberry said while natural gas production has been increasing since mid-August, it remained relatively steady up to that point. Chronaberry also said that Ohio has a high demand for natural gas because of the number of factories located in the state. Many coal-fired power plants in Ohio have converted to natural gas, further increasing demand. “The customers with the highest demand for natural gas are usually large industrial customers,” said Chronaberry. “Ohio is home to many manufacturers with high energy demands.” While natural gas prices in Ohio have been rising, they are expected to remain below the national average. In fact, according to Chronaberry, the price of gas in the Midwest is generally lower than both the Gulf Coast and the Northeast. This is partially due to extensive natural gas production in southeastern Ohio. While production has increased in recent years because of fracking, southeastern Ohio has been producing oil and gas since 1860 when the first oil wells were drilled in Washington County.Higher natural gas prices mean increased heating and energy bills heading into winter, when residential consumption is typically at its highest. Chronaberry said there are many small things consumers can do to keep their costs down.

EOG again seeks to build on its oil and gas inventory organically, this time in the Utica. - EOG has become one of the top performing U.S. producers through a contrarian strategy of growth through organic exploration, which — if done successfully — adds reserves, lowers finding-and-development costs, and reduces the overall cost basis of the company. Beginning in 2016, EOG established a benchmark for high-grading its portfolio, targeting investment and development of “premium” reserves that provided a minimum 30% return at $40/bbl oil, $16/bbl NGLs, and $2.50/Mcf gas prices. The company concentrated on allocating funds to boost its premium inventory in its current core areas: the Delaware Basin, the Eagle Ford Shale, the Bakken/Three Forks play, the Denver-Julesburg and Powder River basins, and the Anadarko Basin’s Woodford oil play. Successes include the doubling of its reserve estimates and premium locations by successful exploration in the Mowry, Niobrara, and Turner Sand formations in the northern Powder River. Most notably, EOG has devoted a significant portion of its annual investment to exploration in what it calls the “sleepy” — or underappreciated or neglected — portions of major U.S. unconventional basins. The first major discovery was in South Texas. The company had been drilling oil-focused wells in the Austin Chalk in South Texas, but in 2018 began investigating dry gas Austin Chalk potential in Webb County, along the Mexico border. In November 2020, EOG announced the new Dorado natural gas play, estimating a massive 21 Tcf in recoverable resources from stacked pay zones in the Austin Chalk and Upper and Lower Eagle Ford in what it hailed as “the lowest cost U.S. natural gas play.” The 163,000-net-acre position, which EOG had assembled through legacy assets, organic leasing, trades, and bolt-on acquisitions, had a development breakeven of less than $1.25/Mcf and offered easy access to growing demand from Gulf Coast LNG export facilities and from Mexico. Best of all, the play easily met what EOG is calling its new “double-premium” investment criteria, which it says is the “most stringent investment hurdle rate in the industry”: a minimum 60% return at $40/bbl oil, $16/bbl weighted average NGLs, and $2.50/Mcf gas prices — each of which is less than half of today’s prices.Year-to-date 2022 results demonstrated that focusing capital investment on “double-premium” locations significantly boosted cash flow generation, from $5.5 billion in 2021 to an estimated $7.6 billion in 2022. EOG is allocating 67% of its free cash flow, or $5.1 billion, to return to shareholders as regular or special dividends. The remaining cash is being used to strengthen EOG’s fortress-like balance sheet (0.2x net debt to Adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio) and for low-cost property bolt-on acquisitions, which augmented a development program that replaced 170% of the “double-premium” wells drilled in 2021.Along with those Q3 2022 financial results, EOG unveiled its eighth and perhaps most surprisingly new “double-premium” exploration play. As shown in Figure 1 below, the company said it had stealthily accumulated 395,000 net acres in the volatile oil window of the Utica Shale in southeastern Ohio — just west and north of West Virginia’s panhandle.The Utica Shale is a massive formation that covers 170,000 square miles over portions of eight U.S. states. It underlies the Marcellus Shale at depths reaching 14,000 feet on the eastern side, including Pennsylvania, but thins to 2,000-8,000 feet moving west across Ohio. Cited as the fourth-largest U.S. natural gas resource by the EIA, the Utica also has volatile oil, another word for condensate, (light-green area in Figure 1) and black oil (dark-green area in Figure 1) windows as it thins in Ohio. Development of the Utica began in 2011, shortly after the onset of the Shale Revolution, with the rig count rising to 50 in late 2014. But the rig count subsequently plunged to 10 in 2016 on the crash in commodity prices, rebounded to 30 in 2017, then cratered at four after the onset of the pandemic before recovering to its current 10, primarily located in the eastern dry gas window.

Shell commissions Pennsylvania petrochemical complex - Shell PLC subsidiary Shell Chemical Appalachia LLC has officially started operations at its long-planned Shell Polymers Monaca (SPM) petrochemical complex atop a 386-acre site just southwest of Monaca, Pa., along the Ohio River in Potter and Center Townships, Beaver County, 30 miles northwest of Pittsburgh (OGJ, Nov. 1, 2021). Commencing operation as of Nov. 15, SPM will produce about 1.6 million tonnes/year (tpy) of polyethylene upon ramping up to its full nameplate capacity, which is scheduled to occur by second-half 2023, Shell said in a release.First proposed as a potential investment project in 2012, Shell began construction on SPM in April 2017 following the operator’s final investment decision (FID) to move forward with the development in June 2016 (OGJ Online, Nov. 8, 2017; Mar. 15, 2012).Upon announcing official commercial operation, Shell confirmed SPM contracted at FID for most of the complex’s required natural gas feedstock from regional gas operators in nearby Utica and Marcellus basins.While details regarding SPM’s feedstock supply agreements were not revealed, Shell previously said the Monaca complex will receive the entirety of its regionally-sourced ethane feedstock via Shell Pipeline Co. LP’s Falcon ethane pipeline system (FEPS), a 97-mile common carrier ethane pipeline that—stretching across southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and eastern Ohio—connects Monaca with three major ethane source points in the rich-gas portions of the Marcellus and Utica shale reservoirs: Houston, Pa.; Scio, Ohio; and Cadiz, Ohio (OGJ Online, Aug. 1, 2022).Designed to produce ethylene, high-density polyethylene (HDPE), and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) from Marcellus and Utica shale ethane, Shell’s Monaca site houses a dual 1.5-million tpy ethylene and 1.6-million tpy polyethylene complex, which features seven tail gas and natural gas-fired ethane cracking furnaces with a heat input rating of 620 MMbtu each to support the ethane cracker and three polyethylene units.The complex’s two gas-phase polyethylene manufacturing lines each are equipped to produce 550,000 tpy of either HDPE or LLDPE-grade pellets, while a third manufacturing line outfitted with INEOS AG’s slurry-loop reactor polyethylene technology will produce 500,000 tpy of HDPE pellets. Alongside installations for steam generation, storage, logistics, cooling water, and wastewater treatment, the complex also houses a 250-Mw cogeneration power unit that uses natural gas and steam to meet the site’s full electricity requirement, according to project documents.Shell said SPM comes as part of its Powering Progress strategy to reduce the production of traditional fuels and accelerate the operator’s transition by 2050 to net-zero emissions. A cornerstone of the strategy includes the operator’s plan to consolidate its global refinery footprint to five core energy and chemicals parks that maximize integration benefits of conventional fuels and chemicals production while also offering new low-carbon fuels and performance chemicals (OGJ Online, Sept. 6, 2022; Jan. 21, 2022).

Shell Ramps Up Pennsylvania Petrochemical Project, Fueled by Marcellus and Utica Natural Gas - Shell plc’s long awaited Pennsylvania petrochemical project, the first major polyethylene manufacturing complex fueled by natural gas liquids in the Northeast, has begun operations, with designed output of 1.6 million metric tons/year. The Shell Polymers Monaca (SPM) facility by subsidiary Shell Chemical Appalachia LLC is northwest of Pittsburgh, adjacent to the Ohio River on 384 acres in Beaver County. Main construction began in April 2017. SPM’s polyethylene and ethylene would be produced using ethane feedstock sourced from the prolific Marcellus and Utica shales. Full production is expected by the second half of 2023.“Building this world-class facility is a fantastic achievement and one the team can be proud of; it’s a showcase of Shell’s project delivery expertise,” said Shell Downstream director Huibert Vigeveno. “With great market access, innovative offers and connected infrastructure, Shell Polymers Monaca is well positioned and ready to serve customers with high quality, competitive products.”SPM is within a 700-mile radius of 70% of the U.S. polyethylene market, Shell noted“The advantages of proximity are not limited to production,” executives said. “SPM also offers customers shorter supply chains, which translates to increased flexibility and access to polyethylene pellets that can be used in a wide variety of products such as common household goods, consumer and food packaging, as well as industrial and utility products.”The ramp up “represents an important step in growing Shell’s chemicals business as part of its Powering Progress strategy,” the London-based supermajor noted. The company is using “value chains” closer to end-use customers and using advantaged feedstocks, while reducing exposure over time to commodity chemicals.“In delivering this facility, we’ve had a strong and innovative safety focus,” Vigeveno said. Shell has “invested in the community through employment and education, and helped repair and improve the local environment by remediating a brownfield site. These commitments are core to Shell’s Powering Progress strategy today and will remain so in the years to come.”

It's Happening: Shell Ethane Cracker Plant Commences Operations - The Shell Polymers Monaca (SPM) petrochemical refinery in western Pennsylvania, became fully operational this week, marking it as the first major polyethylene manufacturing complex in the Northeast. Shell Downstream Director Huibert Vigeveno heralded the project:“Building this world-class facility is a fantastic achievement and one the team can be proud of; it’s a showcase of Shell’s project delivery expertise. With great market access, innovative offers and connected infrastructure, Shell Polymers Monaca is well positioned and ready to serve customers with high-quality, competitive products.”First announced in 2012, the facility has been under construction since 2017. After a decade of careful planning and construction, the plant will now convert natural gas into ethylene for important consumer products, with a designed output of 1.6 million tonnes annually.Notably, the plant uses natural gas feedstock from the nearby energy-rich Marcellus and Utica shales, highlighting the economic and consumer benefits of natural gas to power ancillary industries like the SPM.In a press release, Shell highlighted these benefits:“SPM contracted most of its natural gas feedstock at Final Investment Decision from the nearby Utica and Marcellus basins. The advantages of proximity are not limited to production; SPM also offers customers shorter supply chains, which translates to increased flexibility and access to polyethylene pellets that can be used in a wide variety of products such as common household goods, consumer and food packaging, as well as industrial and utility products.”Appalachia is seeing a resurgence of industry investment due to its abundant supply of natural gas and skilled workforce. This project is just one of many examples showing how Appalachia is growing and prospering, a topic Energy in Depth has previously explored.Shell’s cracker plant brought new growth and jobs to the region through construction – 6,000 construction workers built the new facility – and will have 600 permanent employees to operate and maintain the facility with an expected several thousand more jobs from the private industry and public services created to help support this facility.According to analysis from Robert Morris University’s School of Business, the SPM will produce between $260 and $846 million in annual economic activity through wages, benefits, and related spending within Beaver County. The state will also collect $23 million annually in state income tax from the SPM, and over 40 years, it is projected to produce more than $81 billion in economic activity across the Keystone State.

 Gasoline spill displaces about 1,000 people in Bethlehem, Pa. About 1,000 people have been evacuated in Bethlehem, Penn., after a gasoline tanker overturned Thursday morning. The tanker spilled about 6,000 gallons of gasoline after it crashed around 2:30 a.m. ET at W. Union Boulevard and Paul Avenue, according to WFMZ. Officers evacuated everyone within a 1,000-meter radius of the spill, which included about 400 homes. American Red Cross of Greater Pennsylvania is responding to the "significant fuel oil spill affecting hundreds of homes." "Currently, we are providing canteen services to responders, mobilizing shelter teams to support the evacuation site, and coordinating with local officials to determine community needs and next steps," American Red Cross wrote on Twitter. Some people have been allowed to return to their homes as of 11:00 a.m., according to CBS Philadelphia. "We will delay the opening of school for two hours to ensure that our building is ready to function normally for students and staff while also serving our community's needs," the district wrote to its website. Some people have been allowed to return to their homes as of 11:00 a.m., according to CBS Philadelphia. The driver of the truck was taken to the hospital, but their condition has not been made public, according to 6ABC. Bethlehem police said top concerns are a fire or explosion, WFMZ reported. Gasoline is a highly flammable liquid that is toxic to people when they are exposed in large amounts for a long period of time. Standard protocol for fuel spills include evacuating personnel from the immediate area, notifying the cleanup response team, extinguishing or disconnecting all ignition sources, and contacting the fire department if the spill is flammable.

As Evidence Mounts, New Concerns About Fracking and Health - Yale E360 - Almost 20 years after the adoption of hydraulic fracturing began to supercharge U.S. production of oil and gas, there’s growing evidence of a correlation between the industry’s activities and an array of health problems ranging from childhood cancer and the premature death of elderly people to respiratory issues and endocrine disruption. While the oil and gas industry insists its processes are safe, and regulators have set rules designed to prevent the contamination of air and water by “fracking” technology, advocates for stricter limits on the practice, or even an outright ban, point to an increasing number of studies suggesting that fracking poses a threat to public health. A paper by the Yale School of Public Health this summer showed that children living near Pennsylvania wells that use fracking to harvest natural gas are two to three times more likely to contract a form of childhood leukemia than their peers who live farther away. That followed a Harvard study in January that found elderly people living near or downwind from gas pads have a higher risk of premature death than seniors who don’t live in that proximity. In April, the nonprofit Physicians for Social Responsibility and Concerned Health Professionals of New York, which consists of health professionals, scientists, and medical organizations, published its most recent compendium of investigations into risks and harms linked with fracking. Since 2014, the compendium has tallied 2,239 peer-reviewed papers that found evidence of harm, with nearly 1,000 of those papers published since 2018. More than 17.6 million people in the U.S. now live within a mile of a fracked oil or gas well. “The risks and harms of fracking for public health and the climate are real and growing,” said the authors of the compilation. “Despite the continuing challenges of exposure assessments, the results of recent studies confirm and extend the validity of earlier findings.” According to the 577-page document, 79 percent of U.S. natural gas and 65 percent of crude oil is now produced by fracking, with more than 17.6 million people living within a mile of a fracked oil or gas well. The result, says the report, is a public health crisis. U.S. energy companies have been under fire from environmentalists and public health advocates since the mid-2000s, when the U.S. fracking boom got underway. The opposition goes beyond concerns that emissions from natural gas contribute to climate change. Critics say that the cocktails of chemicals injected a mile or more underground to crack open gas-bearing fissures in shale threaten groundwater supplies — including drinking water — and that diesel fumes from trucks and generators on well pads erode air quality. Commonly reported health effects that are increasingly linked to fracking include some cancers, low birth weight, disruptions to the endocrine system, nose bleeds, headaches, nausea, and weight gain.

Pipeline's path through the Jefferson National Forest to get another look -- For the third time in six years, the U.S. Forest Service will study the environmental impact of burrowing a large natural gas pipeline through a 3.5-mile stretch of the Jefferson National Forest. The latest evaluation comes after a federal appeals court rejected two earlier approvals for the Mountain Valley Pipeline. Both times, in 2018 and again earlier this year, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the Forest Service did not adequately address the erosion and sedimentation to be caused by clearing land and digging a trench for a buried pipe that will traverse steep slopes through federal woodlands in Giles and Montgomery counties. A draft environmental impact statement will be completed by January, the service said Thursday. That will be followed by a 45-day public comment period, with final action expected by summer 2023. Mountain Valley said the timeline aligns with its plans to complete the long-delayed, $6.6 billion project by the end of next year. “Mountain Valley believes that the few items referenced in the Fourth Circuit’s remand issued in January 2022 can be addressed within the timeframe outlined by the agency,” spokeswoman Natalie Cox wrote in an email. “With total project work roughly 94% complete, Mountain Valley looks forward to safely and responsibly completing this critical infrastructure project to serve the growing demand for affordable, reliable energy.” Opponents argue that the pipeline is closer to halfway finished. Mountain Valley must also apply for a new assessment of its impact to endangered species from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The Fourth Circuit has also raised questions about a permit for the pipeline to cross streams and wetlands, which is now in a third round of litigation from environmental groups. Currently, 10 other natural gas pipelines bisect the George Washington and Jefferson National Forests, which encompass 1.8 million acres in the Appalachian Mountains of Virginia, West Virginia and Kentucky. But Mountain Valley would be the largest, and is the only interstate pipeline that falls under the regulation of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. After entering in national forest in Monroe County, West Virginia, the pipeline will be buried beneath the Appalachian Trail and then run southeast through the New River and Roanoke valleys. “As a federal land management agency with a multiple-use mission, the Forest Service considers authorization of many different types of uses on National Forest System lands,” Joby Timm, supervisor for the Jefferson National Forest, said in statement Thursday. “Our mission is caring for the land and serving people.” Opponents — from national environmental giants such as the Sierra Club to local community groups — have contested more than a dozen state and federal permits issued to Mountain Valley. They contend that constructing a 42-inch diameter steel pipe along mountainsides and through streams and wetlands is a recipe for disaster. Mountain Valley has been cited nearly 500 times for violating regulations meant to control muddy runoff in Virginia and West Virginia, where the 303-mile pipeline starts. In rejecting the latest permit from the Forest Service and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, the Fourth Circuit ruled that the agencies “erroneously failed to account for real-world data suggesting increased sedimentation along the pipeline route.”

TC Energy Looking to Expand Haynesville to Gulf Coast LNG Corridor - TC Energy Corp. is working to connect more natural gas supply from the Haynesville Shale and Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) with LNG export demand, management said last week. CEO François Poirier hosted a call on Wednesday (Nov. 9) to discuss the Calgary-based pipeline juggernaut’s third quarter earnings. Poirier and his team highlighted the $400 million Gillis Access project in Louisiana, which the company sanctioned during the quarter. The 1.5 Bcf/d header system “will connect growing supply from the Haynesville basin to Louisiana markets including the rapidly expanding” Louisiana liquefied natural gas export market, management said. TC is aiming for the project to enter service in summer 2024. “Essentially, the project is a header system that can be further expanded over time within the state of Louisiana, that will ultimately connect the Haynesville supplies that are going to show up at a point called Gillis to serve downstream LNG, industrial and other markets within the state,” said Vice President Stanley Chapman, who oversees U.S. and Mexico natural gas pipelines. Chapman said with Gillis project and the other projects in service on the drawing board, “we’re going to increase the flowing LNG feed gas that we have from about 3 Bcf today, which is roughly a 30% market share, to over 6 Bcf or 35% market share in 2025. “So we see continued opportunities in a target-rich environment to continue to expand our best-in-class footprint, particularly across the state of Louisiana to serve LNG loads, particularly important as energy security and energy reliability becomes a forward theme with respect to world energy demand.” The third quarter also saw the start up of the Louisiana XPress natural gas pipeline, which has increased TC’s market share from 25% to about 30% of volumes destined for export from third-party LNG facilities. The start of commercial service on Louisiana Xpress, along with expansions and upgrades to TC’s ANR Pipeline Co. system, added about 1 Bcf/d of U.S. gas capacity during 3Q2022. In Canada, the company is “laser focused” on completing the Coastal GasLink pipeline by the end of 2023, said TC’s Bevin Wirzba, executive vice president who oversees Canadian natural gas and liquids pipelines. Coastal GasLink is meant to transport WCSB gas to the LNG Canada export terminal planned for British Columbia’s west coast. TC also expects “to announce and close C$5 billion plus of asset divestitures within 2023,” Poirier told analysts. He declined to go into specifics on which assets the firm is planning to offload. Poirier touted high utilization rates across the firm’s North American gas pipeline network. He added that the company remains “opportunity rich,” citing a $34 billion portfolio of fully sanctioned, secured capital projects under development. TC is now targeting full-year 2022 capital spending of about $9.5 billion, and expects to sanction about $5 billion of projects per year throughout the decade, Poirier said.

Summary of FERC Meeting Agenda for November 2022 - Below are summaries of the agenda items for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's November 17, 2022 open meeting, pursuant to the sunshine notice released on November 10, 2022. (includes details on several dozen pending projects)

 Race Is On to Be Next Big USA Supplier of LNG to Europe - It’s been eight months since Russia invaded Ukraine, sending global commodity prices soaring and forcing energy-ravenous countries into a mad competitive dash to secure new fuel sources ahead of winter. While the US filled some of the supply gap by exporting huge quantities of liquefied natural gas from its seven plants, global markets are going to have to wait at least two more years before any new LNG supplies from the US come online. Three large-scale projects requiring more than $30 billion of financing are now under construction in Texas and Louisiana, yet none will be ready next year. Two of the projects, Golden Pass LNG near Port Arthur, Texas, and the first phase of Plaquemines LNG, along the Mississippi River about 25 miles south of New Orleans, are expected to begin production in 2024, setting up a race to see which will be the eighth US export terminal. The third project, by Cheniere Energy, the US’s largest LNG exporter, will expand an existing plant in Corpus Christi and won’t begin production until late 2025. Natural gas traders, government officials and industry observers will spend the next few years watching the projects for any signs of delay or movements ahead of schedule. Golden Pass is a joint venture between industry titans Qatar Energy and Exxon Mobil. It began construction in May 2019. Plaquemines, a project by the closely held Virginia-based developer, Venture Global LNG, quietly started construction in August 2021. Venture Global pulled off a near-miracle in January 2022 when it began production at its first LNG plant, Calcasieu Pass in Cameron, Louisiana, in a record 29 months after securing financing. Many wonder if it can repeat or beat that success with Plaquemines. Using regulatory filings and satellite images, Michael Webber, co-founder and managing partner of New York consulting firm Webber Research, said the race is a “dead heat” but that Venture Global’s construction approach gives it an edge. It’s using a modular process in which sections of the plant are built offsite and shipped to Plaquemines, where they are dropped into place, akin to snapping Lego blocks together. Golden Pass, on the other hand, is using the traditional approach by building everything onsite. Natural gas is a plentiful fuel that, when burned, emits less carbon dioxide than oil and coal. And in its super-chilled form, it’s easy to store and transport on ocean-faring tankers. Seeking to stay warm this winter and keep manufacturers humming, European nations have been paying a premium for those cargoes. The US began exporting LNG in force in 2016 and now has seven plants that can ship the fuel overseas. One of those terminals, Freeport LNG in Quintana, Texas, remains shuttered following a June 8 fire. Once Freeport is back in full service, possibly at the end of the year, the seven plants will be able to export a combined 13.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, figures from the Energy Information Administration show. At the end of 2019, the US’s peak capacity sat at 11.6 billion cubic feet per day. Adding more capacity is a Herculean financial, engineering and environmental feat. The multi-story plants occupy hundreds of acres of land and have miles of winding pipes that move natural gas, which must be cleaned of contaminants and then cooled to -260 degrees Fahrenheit. At that point, it becomes a liquid that can be stored in giant insulated tanks large enough to fit a cargo plane. An LNG plant “has a lot of moving parts and a lot of these moving parts have never moved together before,” Golden Pass LNG Chief Commercial Officer Jeff Hammad said Oct. 13 at the Gulf Coast Energy Forum in New Orleans. “It’s big and expensive. It’s technically complex. And it takes a long time to plan and execute.” Here is the status of the US’s major LNG projects:

U.S. Greenlights Commonwealth LNG Project - The Commonwealth LNG project received the unanimous approval of energy regulators this week despite concern expressed by Democrats about its carbon footprint.Per its website, the project will have a capacity of 8.4 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually and should begin operation in 2027. Located on the Louisiana Gulf Coast, the facility will also include six 50,000-cu m storage tanks and the capacity to accommodate vessels up to 216,000 cu m.The facility will receive feed gas via an interconnector to “two major pipeline systems with significant excess transportation capacity.”Commonwealth already has a long-term offtake commitment from Woodside Energy Trading, a subsidiary of the Australian energy major, which will see the trading company buy LNG from the Commonwealth facility over a 20-year period.The deal is for 2.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually, with the first shipments scheduled for the middle of 2026. The initial contracted volume is 2 million tons, with an option for an additional 500,000 tons.“The agreements secure for Woodside low-cost LNG volumes in the Atlantic Basin in a period of expected strong demand as Europe seeks alternatives to Russian pipeline gas,” said Woodside’s chief executive, Meg O’Neill, in comments on the deal announced in September.Reuters noted in a report on the approval news that this is the first new LNG project to earn the approval of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in the last two years.The chairman of the commission, however, voiced concern about the emissions footprint of the facility, which will generate an estimated 3.5 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. “I still am at a loss as to why we don’t at least assess the significance of the greenhouse gas emissions in terms of making our determination ... and I think it is something we need to grapple with as we move forward,” Rich Glick said.

Fatigue contributed to Texas LNG explosion, probe says - Employee fatigue from understaffing played a role in the explosion that has closed one of the largest U.S. natural gas export terminals since June, according to an investigative report made public Tuesday.Operators at Freeport LNG generally worked 12-hour shifts, and nearly three-quarters had worked at least 20 percent more than their scheduled hours in the first half of 2022, according to the report done for the company by the consulting company IFO Group. It deemed fatigue a “probable contributing factor” to the incident.“Fatigue can increase errors, delay responses, and cloud decision-making,” the report said. It added that operators often worked overtime shifts on their days off and noted problems with the plant’s warning systems. Freeport LNG officials had predicted the facility would reopen by early to mid-November. But a Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration official said Tuesday the company hasn’t requested permission to restart.Analysts at multiple research and banking firms have said a November start-up appears unlikely. Company officials aren’t providing information about the timeline.“When we have an update to communicate it will be provided accordingly,” Freeport LNG spokesperson Heather Browne said in an email.The results of the investigation are important in part because PHMSA is trying to update its 42-year-old safety rules for the rapidly growing industry (Energywire, June 28). PHMSA sent a proposal to leadership at the Department of Transportation, its parent agency, in September. It could go to the White House by the end of November.The heavily redacted investigative report was released under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). It attributed the Freeport fire and explosion to human error and said company officials were aware of problems days beforehand. E&E News previously reported on similar issues raised by a different investigatory report (Energywire, Nov. 1). Freeport LNG hired the Houston-based IFO Group to investigate the cause of the explosion under the terms of an agreement with PHMSA. The terminal cannot reopen without the approval of the agency and other regulators. IFO investigators told officials of Brazoria County, where Freeport is located, that managers didn’t stop operations at the terminal because of “hubris” — they didn’t want to acknowledge there was a problem at the plant. In response to the IFO report, the company said it planned to expand its workforce by more than 30 percent and committed to other recommended changes. The explosion took nearly 20 percent of the country’s liquefied natural gas export capacity offline, hindering a crucial aspect of the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine.“Freeport was clearly putting profits ahead of safety by keeping a plant running at full steam when its staff was worn thin due to overwork,” said Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, which advocates accelerating a transition to sustainable energy. “LNG is explosive, and safety can’t be an afterthought.”

US NatGas Tumbles On Bloomberg Report That Freeport LNG May Extend Plant Outage - On Monday morning, US natural gas futures jumped more than 5.5% to as high as $6.25/mmbtu on Freeport dismissing reopening claims. The Texas terminal has been shuttered since June due to an explosion, with a reopening timeframe around mid-November. Any such reopening would boost NatGas prices because the liquefaction plant serves as a major export facility, serving European customers. Now Bloomberg reports Freeport LNG told customers that outages at its Texas terminal, which has been closed since June and was scheduled to reopen by mid-November, could be delayed further. People with direct knowledge of the situation said LNG shipments for November and December are likely to be canceled as maintenance work continues on the liquefaction plant. Also, regulatory approvals could prolong the start date.This comes as heating demand is set to surge across the Northern Hemisphere. The LNG exfor 15% of all US LNG exports, most of which were sent to Europe. Freeport said last week it was set to resume operations this month, though reliable timelines from the company port facility in Freeport, Texas, accounted have been hard to get, according to the people. Last Friday, US natural gas prices plunged after rumors circulated on social media about possible restart delays at Freeport. Then the company denied Twitter rumors late Friday which sent US Natgas prices higher early Monday to only plunge again, with now Bloomberg reporting possible restart delays. This is more bad news for Europe as the energy-stricken continent has to search elsewhere for LNG shipments. On the flip side, more NatGas will be injected into US storage ahead of winter. Freeport LNG, a major liquefied natural gas exporter in Texas, rejected claims made on social media last Friday that its terminal would be closed for an extended period. US natural gas futures plunged as much as 7.4% on Friday as someone operating a Twitter account, identifying as a trader, said "cracked pipes" were discovered at the terminal, potentially delaying the company's plans to restart exports by mid-month. The tweet was immediately deleted.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Swing as Uncertainty Over Freeport LNG Restart Continues – U.S. natural gas futures swung on Monday as the market continued to weigh conflicting information about when Freeport LNG might return to service. While Henry Hub ultimately finished higher, a rally earlier in the day fizzled after Bloomberg cited anonymous sources who said the terminal would likely cancel shipments scheduled for November and December. The contract seemed poised for a strong recovery from Friday’s losses, when unverified rumors on social media about further delays to Freeport’s restart stirred the market. The liquefied natural gas operator responded last Friday to what it called “false information circulated today about the restart of Freeport LNG’s liquefaction facility.” Freeport said it had not made any public statements on the timing of its highly anticipated return to service. The company warned that “any Tweets and/or posts on Freeport LNG-branded letterhead that may have been obtained or published, are reporting false information and are not legitimate.” Freeport did not comment about the Bloomberg report. It continues to work toward a restart, but the mid-November timeline that it had previously targeted is clearly slipping away. The facility has not submitted a remedial work plan or a request to restart to federal regulators, which is required before operations can resume. The outage has moved the U.S. and global gas markets since it began over the summer given the facility’s domestic demand and international supply impacts. The December Henry Hub contract finished 5.4 cents higher at $5.933/MMBtu on Monday. Freeport has been offline since a June explosion near its storage tanks forced the plant to shut down. It has been targeting a mid-November start-up that calls for it ramping toward 2 Bcf/d of production, or about 85% of its capacity. Full service isn’t expected to resume until March, when a second loading dock returns to operations.

December Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Rally as Winter Chill Offsets Freeport Confusion -Natural gas futures recovered Monday as weather shifted substantially colder, driving heating demand and offsetting festering concerns about the relaunch of a key export facility. The December Nymex gas futures contract settled at $5.933/MMBtu, up 5.4 cents day/day. January gained 3.6 cents to $6.299. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. jumped $1.415 to $6.340, with prices surging in the nation’s midsection and the East along with advancing cold. The front month contract shed 36.0 cents to settle at $5.879 on Friday. This followed unsubstantiated rumors that the Freeport LNG facility in Texas, offline since June following a fire, would not reopen until 2023 – much later than its mid-November goal. The liquefied natural gas operator put out a statement responding to “false information circulated” about “the restart of Freeport LNG’s liquefaction facility.” Freeport said it had not made any public statements on the timing of the highly anticipated return to service for the 2 Bcf/d export terminal, seemingly leaving a potential November relaunch on the table. The company warned that “any Tweets and/or posts on Freeport LNG branded letterhead that may have been obtained or published, are reporting false information and are not legitimate.” Futures popped more than 30 cents in morning trading Monday as traders shrugged off the conflicting Freeport news and focused instead on intensifying cold in the central United States that had spread east over the weekend. Wintry conditions were forecast to settle across much of the Lower 48 in the current week and deeper into November, NatGasWeather said. However, the gains were curbed after a midday Bloomberg News report, citing anonymous sources, said Freeport had told LNG buyers it would likely cancel shipments slated for this month and December because repair work and efforts to secure regulatory approvals are ongoing. The company, however, had not provided an official update to its timeline as of the December contract’s settlement on Monday. “Nat gas market participants have been frustrated by the lack of transparency from Freeport regarding when they will resume operations since it’s keeping nearly 2 Bcf/d in the U.S. instead of it being exported overseas,” NatGasWeather said. “Many still believe Freeport LNG won’t resume operations by their stated date and will be delayed into December due to the lengthy federal process to ensure the facility is safe. “We must expect more fallout early this week” from “confusing and conflicting Freeport news. But what’s likely to matter more” is colder weather “for the coming 15 days.” Both the American and European weather models showed widespread freezing conditions through this week and into next before returning to seasonal norms around the Thanksgiving holiday, NatGasWeather added.

U.S. natgas up 2% on colder forecasts; Freeport LNG delay (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 2% on Tuesday on forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand next week than previous estimates, but expectations that Freeport LNG will delay the restart of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas clouded the outlook. Freeport LNG, as of Monday afternoon, had not submitted a request to resume service to the Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Many analysts believe that means the plant will not return until December at the earliest. Global gas markets have been extremely focused on Freeport news this month, with U.S. futures gaining or losing more than 5% in seven of the past 10 days. Some people have created fake news releases on Freeport letterhead and posted unfounded tweets about pipe cracks to sway the market up or down. Some traders have called on the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate the flood of misinformation. Until late last week, Freeport had said repeatedly that the plant, which shut after an explosion on June 8, was on track to return to service in November. The company, however, did not mention a November restart, or any restart date, in comments made on Friday or Monday. "Speculating on Freeport's restart timeline is a loser's game, but resuming output by year-end would provide the boost in demand that bullish market participants have been anticipating, resulting in an upside catalyst for prices," Ade Allen, an analyst at energy research firm Rystad Energy, said in a note. Once the 2.1-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Freeport facility returns to service, U.S. gas prices should rise due to increased demand from LNG export plants. On the flip side, the delay in Freeport's return means less gas available for Europe to import, a factor which helped prices there spike around 7% on Tuesday. Europe needs U.S. gas because it is not getting as much Russian fuel as usual after imposing sanctions on Moscow for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A couple of vessels were waiting to pick up LNG from Freeport, according to Refinitiv data. Prism Diversity and Prism Courage were offshore from the plant, while LNG Rosenrot and Prism Agility were expected to arrive in late November. But one vessel, Prism Brilliance, which had been waiting outside the Freeport plant, seems to have given up on Freeport and was now sitting outside of Corpus Christi where Cheniere Energy Inc has an LNG export plant. Front-month gas futures rose 10.1 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $6.034 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Gas futures are up about 63% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $37 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $27 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia.

U.S. natgas futures gain 3% on colder midday weather forecast (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures closed about 3% higher on Wednesday, reversing earlier losses as colder midday weather forecasts outweighed news a few liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels turned away from the Freeport export plant in Texas in recent days and expectations its restart will be delayed. Federal pipeline safety regulators released a heavily redacted consultant's report blaming inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue for the June 8 explosion that shut the Freeport plant. Sources familiar with Freeport LNG's filing said the company had not yet submitted a request to resume service to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Many analysts said that means the plant will not return to service until December at the earliest. Until late last week, Freeport had said repeatedly the plant remained on track to return to service in November. In comments made in recent days, however, the company did not mention a restart date. Once the 2.1 billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) Freeport facility restarts, U.S. gas prices will likely rise due to increased demand from the country's LNG export plants. Until the facility restarts, less U.S. gas will be available to export to Europe, where prices have spiked around 17% this week. Europe needs U.S. gas because Russia has slashed its gas exports there after several European countries imposed sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. Worries about a possible U.S. railroad strike have underpinned gas prices because a rail strike would threaten coal deliveries to U.S. utilities, forcing generators to burn more gas. A third U.S. rail union voted this week to reject a tentative national contract reached in September, but expects to continue negotiating to reach a deal. Front-month gas futures rose 16.6 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at $6.200 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Gas futures were up about 66% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $35 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $26 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 99.2 bcfd so far in November, down from a record 99.4 bcfd in October. With much colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 122.6 bcfd this week to 126.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.8 bcfd so far in November, up from 11.3 bcfd in October.

U.S. natural gas futures gain 3% on cold forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 3% to a one-week high on Thursday on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand over the next week or so. "Natural gas has caught a bid on the back of a big change in the weather, with forecast(s) below average for much of the (Lower) 48 states," . Meteorologists at AccuWeather said a foot of snow had already fallen in Buffalo, New York, with another three to four feet expected in parts of Upstate New York over the next few days. U.S. gas prices increased despite forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand in two weeks than previously expected and a federal storage report showing an expected storage build that was much bigger than usual last week when the weather was still mild and heating demand low. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 64 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Nov. 11. That was close to the 63-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 23 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 5 bcf. Traders noted utilities started pulling gas out of storage during the cold weather this week. Some traders said they were surprised U.S. gas prices rose for a fourth day in a row despite widespread expectations Freeport LNG will delay the restart of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas to December or later. In recent days, a couple of LNG vessels that were either heading for Freeport (LNG Rosenrot) or had waited outside the plant (Prism Brilliance) have moved on to other ports. LNG Rosenrot is now headed for Gibraltar, while Prism Brilliance is sitting outside Corpus Christi in Texas where Cheniere Energy Inc has an LNG export plant, ship tracking data from Refinitiv showed. Until late last week, Freeport LNG had said repeatedly the plant remained on track to return to service in November. In comments made in recent days, however, the company did not mention a restart date. Front-month gas futures rose 16.9 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $6.369 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Nov. 7. That also put the front-month up for a fourth day in a row for the first time since September. Gas futures are up about 57% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $33 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $26 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Once the 2.1 billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) Freeport facility restarts, analysts expect U.S. gas prices to rise due to increased demand from the country's LNG export plants.

Natural Gas Futures Snap Win Streak Amid Freeport LNG Delays, Weather Shift; Spot Prices Advance - Natural gas futures faltered Friday, ending a four-day win streak built on impressive cold blasts. Traders took profits after the run-up and shifted their attention to the delayed relaunch of a critical export terminal and the potential for milder weather late in November. The December Nymex gas futures contract settled at $6.303/MMBtu, down 6.6 cents day/day. January slipped 2.8 cents to $6.716. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., however, gained 14.0 cents to $6.685 amid freezing conditions and powerful snowstorms in the Northeast.NatGasWeather said that, while bitter cold and snow were expected to pepper the central and eastern United States through the weekend and into the week ahead, both the American and European weather models dropped forecast demand Friday and showed less cold over the northern part of the country during the last week of November.Forecasts “held very strong national demand” leading up to Thanksgiving but pointed to a return to seasonal levels and “a little lighter-than-normal” demand for several days at the end of the month.Looking further out, recently released longer-range forecasting “suggested a seasonal to slightly bearish pattern should be favored to start December,” NatGasWeather said. Meanwhile, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced offline in June following a fire, provided a long-awaited update after missing its target to return to service by mid-November amid ongoing repairs and work to secure regulatory approvals.Management of the liquefied natural gas facility said in a statement reconstruction work necessary to commence initial operations, including utilization of all three liquefaction trains and two LNG storage tanks, was about 90% complete. The company expects to complete repairs by the end of this month and updated the targeted relaunch to mid-December.“We are committed to moving forward with an uncompromising safety focus and enhanced operational processes that will enable us to chart a safe, sustainable path forward to serve our customers and the broader LNG market as a whole,” said Freeport CEO Michael Smith.The update, anticipated for several days, followed comments from Osaka Gas Co. President Masataka Fujiwara, who reportedly said early Friday in Japan that it was “highly likely” the Freeport facility would not reopen this month, according to Bloomberg. Osaka Gas owns a stake in one liquefaction train and contracted about 15% of the facility’s fuel.Freeport anticipates ramping up to 2 Bcf/d of production capacity by January, though full restoration to 2.38 Bcf/d may not happen until March, as the plant brings back each of its three trains in sequential order.The news of ongoing delays is important for natural gas markets because Freeport accounts for about 15% of American export capacity. With it out of commission, it limits U.S. suppliers’ ability to meet robust demand from Europe and parts of Asia for the super-chilled fuel.“The market continues to ping pong amid the latest” Freeport news, said EBW Analytics Group’s Eli Rubin, senior analyst.

U.S. Diesel Inventories Hit Historic Lows At The Worst Possible Time - U.S. distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, have slumped to their lowest level for this time of the year since 1951, just as the heating season starts and the EU embargo on Russian oil product imports kicks in in February.Despite a small build in America’s distillate inventories last week, the levels are still at their lowest level since 1951, according to Financial Times estimates.The historically low stocks have pushed diesel prices much higher than the smaller rises in gasoline and crude oil this year. Since diesel is the primary fuel of the economy and long-haul transportation, the high diesel prices continue to fuel inflation.In the week ending November 11, distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels and are about 15% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its weekly inventory report on Wednesday. At 107.4 million barrels, those stocks are the lowest ever seen for this season of the year.“The bulk of the increase in distillate stocks was on the US East Coast. And while this is helpful, stocks in the region are still at their lowest levels on record for this time of year,” ING strategistssaid on Thursday, commenting on the EIA inventory data.Very low diesel stockpiles and lower refining capacity since the pandemic have driven diesel prices in the United States higher to the point of reaching a record-high premium over gasoline and crude oil.Going forward, the supply of diesel in the U.S. and globally is set to tighten even further with the EU embargoes on imports of Russian crude and products, starting in December and February, respectively.“The competition for non-Russian diesel barrels will be fierce, with EU countries having to bid cargoes from the US, Middle East and India away from their traditional buyers,” International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report earlier this week. “Increased refinery capacity will eventually help ease diesel tensions. However, until then, if prices go too high, further demand destruction may be inevitable for the market imbalances to clear,” said the agency, which sees stubbornly high diesel prices fueling inflation as well as slowing economies leading to a slight decline in global diesel demand in 2023.

Why U.S. Diesel Exports Haven’t Dried Up During A Domestic Shortage - Following my recent article — Why The U.S. Has A Diesel Shortage — one reader pointed out that I omitted one factor from my analysis. Even as the U.S. grapples with one of the worst diesel shortages on record, U.S. companies are exporting more than a million barrels of distillates a day.That’s a fair point, but it isn’t a new development. U.S. companies have beenexporting more than a million barrels a day of distillates for about a decade. The obvious question, then, is why this is being done.The short and simple answer is that companies are doing it because they can, and because they are making more money doing this than selling it in the U.S. Consumers may complain, but ultimately these companies are trying to make as much money as they can, and that means selling products to the highest bidders.A U.S. Gulf Coast refiner who wishes to ship distillates to the East Coast must abide by the Jones Act, which requires any cargo shipped between U.S. ports to be carried by U.S. ships, with American crews. This can drive up costs, and make it more economical for that Gulf Coast refiner to export to Europe or South America.Another important point to note is that sometimes distillates are exported because the product doesn’t meet U.S. standards.For example, in 2006 EPA began to phase-in more regulations to lower the amount of sulfur in diesel fuel to 15 parts per million (PPM). This required costly investments by refiners to comply, but some refiners chose to continue making high-sulfur diesel and to export that to countries with less stringent regulations. That practice continues today and explains some of the exports.That is ultimately a business decision for each company, although it’s understandable that consumers would be upset by such decisions.The other obvious question — which I am often asked — is why don’t we ban companies from exporting fuel during a fuel crisis? That’s ultimately a political question. Would the crisis be eased if such a ban were in place? It’s hard to argue that it wouldn’t, but it would exacerbate the crisis elsewhere.Europe is already grappling with a fuel crisis due to the situation in Ukraine. They are relying on U.S. exports to help ease their fuel burdens headed into winter. An American consumer may say that this isn’t our problem, but this isn’t being done for altruistic reasons. Some countries are in worse shape than the U.S. with respect to fuel supplies, and they are willing to pay more to obtain them. That, in a nutshell, is why companies are exporting diesel during a diesel shortage.

The Mississippi, She's A-goin' Dry - Low Water Levels Pinch Midwest Condensate Takeaway - Infrastructure constraints in the energy sector come in all shapes and sizes, and don’t think for a second that they only involve pipelines. For many producers of crude oil, refined products and other liquids, the Mississippi River is a critically important conduit for barging commodities to market. Lately though, water levels on sections of the river have been near historic lows, reducing both the volume of liquids that each barge can carry and the number of barges the Mississippi can handle. Among other things, the low water situation has been putting a squeeze on condensate producers in the “wet” Marcellus/Utica, who depend on barges to transport a significant portion of their superlight crude oil down the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to refineries and for blending into Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the situation. The rapid run-up in U.S. crude oil, natural gas and NGL production through the 2010s put­­­ enormous pressure on the nation’s energy-related infrastructure. In what seemed like a flash, the Bakken in western North Dakota became a leading crude oil play, spurring the development of crude-by-rail terminals and takeaway pipelines. In the Marcellus/Utica, production growth made the Northeast self-sufficient in natural gas and resulted in a slew of pipeline reversals, expansions and greenfield projects to enable gas to flow west and south. And over the past five years or so, we’ve chronicled a phenomenal build-out of infrastructure within and out of the Permian, most of it designed to gather and process hydrocarbons in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, and transport them to end-users and export markets along the Gulf Coast. One of the most impressive — and comprehensive — infrastructure projects of the Shale Era was MPLX’s development of a condensate and NGL “purity product” pipeline-and-storage network in the Midwest. RBN estimates that the network now transports more than 30% of the condensate produced in the liquids-rich Marcellus/Utica play; the pipes also move much of the natural gasoline produced there and, more recently, a portion of the play’s isobutane as well. As important as this network is, however, Marcellus/Utica producers also depend on other means of transport to get these liquids to market, especially barges moving condensate down the Ohio and the Mississippi.

Plaquemines oil terminal could reduce land-building sediment for Mid-Barataria diversion -- Docking facilities planned for a proposed 20-million-barrel crude oil export storage terminal – and the oversized ocean-going vessels and barges that would be berthed there – could reduce the land-building ability of the state’s proposed $1.4 billion Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion, just downstream, by as much as 15 percent.That’s the warning raised by Bruce Lelong, a project leader withAECOM, the state contractor overseeing engineering and design of the diversion for the state Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, in an Aug. 30 email sent to the company’s subcontractors.“I expect it will have significant and potentially adverse impacts to MBSD,” he wrote, using the initials of the diversion project and citing a 2012 study completed by the Water Institute of the Gulf for the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority about an earlier plan by RAM Terminals to build a coal export facility on the same property.The study was written by Ehab Meselhe, lead scientist with the Water Institute, and three researchers with ARCADIS. They concluded that a Mississippi River docking facility just upriver from the proposed diversion site actually would reduce the amount of sediment captured by the diversion by as much as 17 percent.That reduction was based on modeling assuming an ocean-going vessel with a draft of minus 40 feet and a large barge were berthed at the facility. In his email, Lelong said the new oil terminal project proposed berths for multiple larger “post-Panamax” ships, which have drafts of as much as minus 50 feet, plus barges.The oil terminal is being proposed by the Plaquemines Port and Harbor District, Tallgrass Energy LP, and Drexel Hamilton, a Philadelphia-based investment firm, and would be operated by Tallgrass. The Plaquemines Parish Council has approved the issuance of up to $650 million in revenue bonds to underwrite Drexel Hamilton’s recently created Plaquemines Liquids Terminal LLC.The port authority has been attempting to develop the Myrtle Grove property adjacent to the state diversion site and just below the Phillips 66 Alliance refinery since the cancellation of a proposal by RAM Terminals LLC to build a coal export terminal there.The state Department of Natural Resources issued a permit for the RAM facility in 2013, but a Plaquemines Parish judge threw out the permit, saying the state hadn’t considered alternative sites. In April 2016, the state issued a second permit, but it was put on hold when officials asked for information about potential impacts on the diversion. The RAM project’s federal and state permit applications expired in December 2017.The oil terminal’s efforts to receive a permit from state officials has been delayed by repeated requests from the state Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority for information on how the terminal might affect the diversion. Authority officials are concerned about the terminal’s potential to reduce the amount of sediment captured by the diversion, and about any oil or chemical spill at the terminal could move through the diversion into Barataria Bay.

Shell's Zydeco oil pipeline running at reduced capacity -(Reuters) -Shell Pipeline Co.'s Zydeco oil pipeline from Houston to Port Neches, Texas, is operating at reduced capacity due to project work at Port Neches, and is expected to remain at reduced capacity until mid to late December, the company said on Thursday.The Zydeco pipeline systemalleviates transportation bottlenecks of crude arriving in Houston from the Eagle Ford, Permian and Bakken regions, according to Shell Midstream Partners' website. The system connects severalcrude oil pipelines in Houston and Port Neches, and spans over 350 miles(563.27 km), with a mainline capacity of 375,000 barrels per day.The capacity reduction of the line from Houston to Port Neches sent some U.S. physical crude oil grades surging, dealers said, with Light Louisiana Sweet crudeWTC-LLS this week firming to $6 a barrel above U.S. crude oil futures CLc1, its strongest in more than two years. At a 50-cent differential, Mars Sour crude WTC-MRS was at its strongest since April, Refinitiv Eikon data show.

U.S. Permian oil production due to rise in Dec to record -EIA -(Reuters) - Oil output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is due to rise by about 39,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.499 million bpd in December, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday. U.S. crude oil output is due to rise by about 91,000 bpd to 9.191 million bpd in December, its highest since March 2020, the EIA projected. In the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, the EIA forecast oil output will rise 19,000 bpd to 1.201 million bpd in December, the most since November 2020. In the Eagle Ford in South Texas, output will rise 14,000 bpd to 1.237 million bpd in December, its highest since April 2020.

U.S. Permian oil output to hit record in December, but gains are slow - Oil output in the Permian Basin is set to hit another record of5.499 million barrels per day in December, but production is rising very slowly in the biggest U.S. shale oil basin even though U.S. prices have surged in 2022. Overall US crude oil output in shale regions is due to rise by a mere 91,000 bpd to 9.191 million bpd in December, the highest since March 2020, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly productivity report on Monday. Natural gas production is also expected to reach a record. Shale executives have been more bullish on gas output than crude because of the growing global need for US gas and oil producers' desire to maintain capital discipline. In addition, aging shale regions are showing weaker per-well output. Productivity in the biggest oil and gas basins has declined every month since hitting records of new oil well production per rig of 1,545 bpd in December 2020 in the Permian and new gas well production per rig of 33.3 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) in March 2021 in Appalachia. The EIA expects new oil well production per rig will drop to 1,049 bpd in the Permian and new gas well production per rig will drop to 26.1 mmcfd in Appalachia, both of which are the lowest since July 2020. In the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, the EIA forecast oil output will rise 19,000 bpd to 1.201 million bpd in December, the most since November 2020. In the Eagle Ford in South Texas, output will rise 14,000 bpd to 1.237 million bpd in December, its highest since April 2020. Total natural gas output in the big shale basins will increase 0.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to a record 95.7 bcfd in December, the EIA forecast. In the biggest shale gas basin, Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, output will rise to 35.6 bcfd in December, the highest since hitting a record 36.0 bcfd in December 2021. Gas output in the Permian and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will rise to record highs of 21.3 bcfd and 16.3 bcfd in December, respectively. EIA said producers drilled 984 wells in October, the most since March 2020. Total drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells rose by eight to 4,408 in October, the first monthly increase since June 2020.

5.4 magnitude earthquake hits western Texas, southern New Mexico - The magnitude 5.4 earthquake that rattled western Texas and southern New Mexico on Wednesday occurred in a "seismically active" region that has seen more than 100 earthquakes over magnitude 2.5 since 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey said Thursday. The latest earthquake occurred about 24 miles southwest of Mentone, Texas, the USGS reported. The earthquake occurred around 3:30 p.m. local time.The largest earthquake in the region prior to Wednesday's occurrence was a magnitude 5 earthquake on March 26, 2020, that struck about 6.21 miles north of the most recent earthquake.No injuries or deaths were reported from the latest activity, but the earthquake forced the closing of the historic Robert B. Green historical building in San Antonio, which now houses a University Health administrative building, the hospital system said Thursday. University Health said the 100-year-old building was deemed unsafe and its administrative offices have been moved elsewhere. Data from the USGS said the earthquake was felt as far east as Dallas and Austin and as far north as Roswell, New Mexico.The San Antonio Police Department said residents in high-rise buildings in the city's downtown reported shaking from the earthquake Wednesday, ABC affiliate KSAT reported.

Human-induced M5.3 earthquake, series of aftershocks hit western Texas, U.S. - A shallow earthquake, registered by the USGS as M5.3, hit western Texas at 21:32 UTC on November 16, 2022. The agency is reporting a depth of 8.3 km (5.1 miles). The quake was followed by a series of aftershocks, with magnitudes ranging from 2.6 to 4.1. The epicenter was located 39.2 km (24.3 miles) WSW of Mentone (population 19), Texas, and 90 km (56 miles) SSE of Carlsbad (population 28 957), New Mexico. According to the USGS PAGER, 397 000 people are estimated to have felt light shaking. A Green alert was issued for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are resistant to earthquake shaking, though vulnerable structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are unreinforced brick masonry and reinforced masonry construction. Light damage was reported in the region. The largest known earthquake to hit Texas was M6.0 in the town of Valentine, near Marfa, in 1931. The quake occurred in the same area where a human-induced M5.0 earthquake hit on March 26, 2022. This was the third-largest earthquake recorded in Texas and the largest earthquake in the Central and Eastern United States since the three M5.0 – 5.8 induced events in Oklahoma in 2016. “Using multistation waveform template matching, we detect 3 940 earthquakes in the sequence with the first event in the area occurring in May 2018… We find that the sequence was most likely induced by nearby wastewater disposal operations, and seismicity rates in the region surrounding the M5.0 will likely continue to increase in the future if disposal operations continue unaltered.”“This area of western Texas was historically very quiet, but has had 375 M≥3 quakes beginning in 2019,” said Dr. Lucy Jones — one of the world’s most recognizable seismologists.2 “This is the type of pattern that suggests the quakes are induced by pumping fluids into the ground. This is not too big to be induced.” As is the case elsewhere in the world, there is evidence that some central and eastern North America earthquakes have been triggered or caused by human activities that have altered the stress conditions in the earth’s crust sufficiently to induce faulting.3 Activities that have induced felt earthquakes in some geologic environments have included the impoundment of water behind dams, injection of fluid into the earth’s crust, extraction of fluid or gas, and removal of rock in mining or quarrying operations. In much of eastern and central North America, the number of earthquakes suspected of having been induced is much smaller than the number of natural earthquakes, but in some regions, such as the south-central states of the U.S., a significant majority of recent earthquakes are thought by many seismologists to have been human-induced. Even within areas with many human-induced earthquakes, however, the activity that seems to induce seismicity at one location may be taking place at many other locations without inducing felt earthquakes. In addition, regions with frequent induced earthquakes may also be subject to damaging earthquakes that would have occurred independently of human activity. Making a strong scientific case for a causative link between a particular human activity and a particular sequence of earthquakes typically involves special studies devoted specifically to the question. Such investigations usually address the process by which the suspected triggering activity might have significantly altered stresses in the bedrock at the earthquake source, and they commonly address the ways in which the characteristics of the suspected human-triggered earthquakes differ from the characteristics of natural earthquakes in the region.

Texas Oil and Gas Agency Investigating 5.4 Magnitude Earthquake in West Texas, the Largest in Three Decades - Inspectors for the Texas Railroad Commission are investigating a 5.4 magnitude earthquake that was recorded west of Pecos near the border of Reeves and Culberson counties on Wednesday, the agency said.The earthquake, confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was the largest recorded in the state since 1995 and the third-largest in Texas history, according to the USGS National Earthquake Information Center. The largest quake in Texas history was 5.8 magnitude recorded in 1931 southwest of Valentine, according to the USGS National Earthquake Information Center.“It felt like a truck hit the house,” It was the biggest Texas quake in nearly three decades, but far from the only one. Shifflett has weathered the damage from smaller earthquakes for years. One, around 2016, left a broad bulge on his 2,000 acres, cracking pipes and ruining his gravity-run irrigation system, he said.The quake could be felt as far away as Carlsbad, New Mexico, and El Paso, and it forced University Health, the Bexar County Hospital District, to vacate a historic downtown San Antonio hospital building after structural engineers declared it unsafe. The more than 100-year-old building was once known as the most modern hospital of its kind in the Southwest.Most of the building’s clinical services were moved to a new building about a decade ago, but some administrative services were still housed in the historic location. Those offices have now been moved to a different space, according to a University Health statement.The number of earthquakes recorded in Texas has spiked in recent years, particularly in West Texas’ Permian Basin, the most productive oil and gas region in the state. Scientific studies have linked the seismic activity to the disposal of contaminated, salty water deep underground — a common practice by oil companies at the end of the hydraulic fracturing process that can awaken dormant fault lines.Between three and six barrels of salty, polluted water also come up to the surface with every barrel of oil during the fracking process — ancient water that was trapped underground by rock formations.Years of pumping hundreds of millions of gallons of contaminated water per day underground in Texas has coincided with more frequent and more powerful earthquakes in the state: An analysis by The Texas Tribune found that the number of earthquakes of 3.0 magnitude and greater had doubled in 2021 from the previous year.

West Texas earthquake damages historic building on University Health campus - A strong earthquake in West Texas on Wednesday that was felt hundreds of miles away from the epicenter has damaged the Robert B. Green historical building in downtown San Antonio, according to a University Health news release.Officials said Thursday that structural engineers determined the downtown building owned by the public health system was unsafe and have closed off the building.The magnitude 5.3 quake near the New Mexico border in Mentone was caused by oil and gas extraction, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. “Over the past few months, the frequency of these quakes has been going up,” said Randy Baldwin, a geophysicist with the USGS. “We've seen an increase since about 2015, and it’s been related to the extraction industries out in the area.” The quake appears to be one of the largest in Texas history. The largest known earthquake to ever hit Texas was a 6.0 magnitude quake in the town of Valentine, near Marfa, in 1931. Wednesday's earthquake occurred at a depth of about 6 miles, according to the USGS. Mentone is a tiny rural town about 77 miles west of Odessa and over 350 miles from San Antonio. The quake was strong enough to be felt in San Antonio and as far north as Dallas, areas where these types of events are rare. Built in 1917, the hospital building is named for former Bexar County Judge Robert B. Green and was designed by prominent architect Atlee B. Ayres. The building, once lauded as “one of the best and modern institutions of its kind in the Southwest,” appears to be the only San Antonio structure damaged by Wednesday’s earthquake. The vast majority of the building's clinical services were moved in 2013 to the newer Robert B. Green building next door. The new structure appears to be undamaged by the earthquake. Had the earthquake occurred closer to a city, the damage could have potentially been more severe, Baldwin said. The epicenter was close to the same area where a 5.0 earthquake hit in March 2020, and a number of 4.0 magnitude earthquakes have been reported in the area in the last few months, Baldwin said. “These are induced earthquakes out here,” he said. “They are related to the oil and gas industries. Because the amount of production has increased, there has been a corresponding increase in the rates of wastewater injection wells in the area. So those factors go hand in hand.” More than 200 earthquakes of 3.0 magnitude or greater struck Texas in 2021, more than double the 98 recorded in 2020, according to a Texas Tribune report.The Tribune reported that the record-setting seismic activity is largely concentrated in West Texas’ Permian Basin, the most productive oil and gas region in the state. Most induced earthquakes are not directly caused by hydraulic fracking, according to the USGS. The recent increase in earthquakes in the central United States is primarily caused by the disposal of waste fluids that are a byproduct of oil production. Wastewater disposal wells typically operate for longer durations and inject much more fluid than what is injected during the hydraulic fracturing process, making them more likely to cause earthquakes.

Far West Texas deals with 40 quakes in less than 24 hours - The area west of Mentone in Reeves County was shaken Wednesday and Thursday with 40 earthquakes reported in less than 24 hours.The biggest quake of them all was the 5.4-magnitude quake that was felt as far as Midland, San Antonio and Ciudad Jaurez, according to reports including one from the Associated Press. It was the third strongest earthquake in the state’s history.The series of tremors, specifically the 5.4-magnitude quake, was enough for the Railroad Commission to announce it was deploying inspectors to Reeves County. The strongest of all the tremors on Wednesday was the strongest recorded in the lower 48 states this calendar year.“The agency is monitoring seismic data from the United States Geological Survey, the TexNET Seismic Monitoring Program and private operator monitoring stations and will take any actions necessary to protect public safety and the environment,” the Railroad Commission stated in a news release on Thursday. “RRC inspectors are examining disposal activity at injection wells in the area, and staff is also reviewing permit requirements and operators’ seismic response plans in the Northern Culberson-Reeves Seismic Response Area (SRA).”The quakes took place in relatively the same area west-southwest of Mentone. The first quake, the 5.4-magnitude earthquake, took place 25.5 miles west-southwest of Mentone around 3:32 p.m. Thirty-one quakes ranging from 1.9-4.1 in magnitude were reported between 3:39 and 7:49 p.m., according to the USGS. At 9:54 p.m. the quakes returned ranging from 2.1-3.8 in magnitude.The last seven earthquakes, including the five that took place Thursday through 3 p.m., were less than magnitude 3.0, according toearthquaketrack.com. The same site showed 42 quakes had taken place within the last 24 hours of the 5.4-magnitude quake. It also showed 70 quakes within the last seven days, 199 in the past 30 days and 1,668 in the past 365 days,TexNet, the Texas state earthquake monitoring network, stated the following about the seismic activity:“We are still investigating the data associated with these seismic events,” said Scott W. Tinker, the State Geologist of Texas, and the director of the Bureau of Economic Geology. “Our first concern, of course, is for any people who might have been affected by these earthquakes. The professional scientists on the TexNet team, led by Alexandros Savvaidis, are working diligently to analyze the data that we have received from the TexNet network of monitoring stations.”The Associated Press reported Thursday that State Rep. Eddie Morales, Jr., whose district includes Mentone, said he spoke with local authorities and there were no reported injuries. He said via Twitter that state officials will be “inspecting roads, bridges and other infrastructure as a precaution.”

EPA Announces More Stringent Methane Measures - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced that it is strengthening its proposed standards to cut methane and other air pollution. If finalized, the standards will protect workers and communities, maintain and create high-quality, union-friendly jobs, and promote U.S. innovation and manufacturing of critical new technologies, all while delivering significant economic benefits through increased recovery of wasted gas, the EPA noted. The updates, which supplement proposed standards the EPA released back in November 2021, reflect input and feedback from a broad range of stakeholders, and nearly half a million public comments, according to the EPA. The organization said the updates would provide more comprehensive requirements to reduce pollution, “including from hundreds of thousands of existing oil and gas sources nationwide”. “We’re listening to public feedback and strengthening our proposed oil and gas industry standards, which will enable innovative new technology to flourish while protecting people and the planet. Our stronger standards will work hand in hand with the historic level of resources from the Inflation Reduction Act to protect our most vulnerable communities and to put us on a path to achieve President Biden’s ambitious climate goals,” EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said in an EPA statement. In response to the EPA’s supplemental proposed methane rule, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Senior Vice President of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs, Frank Macchiarola, said, “API looks forward to reviewing the proposed rule in its entirety and will continue to work with EPA in support of a final rule that is cost-effective, promotes innovation, and creates the regulatory certainty needed for long-term planning”. “Federal regulation of methane crafted to build on industry’s progress can help accelerate emissions reductions while developing reliable American energy. API’s member companies are continuously advancing and deploying new technology to improve methane detection and reduction, and we support efforts to promote this innovation rather than inhibiting it with overly prescriptive red tape,” Macchiarola added. “Our industry is taking action, and as a result, methane emissions relative to production fell 60 percent from 2011 to 2020. Industry-led initiatives like The Environmental Partnership are helping to continue that progress with the goal of further reducing methane emissions in every major U.S. basin,” he continued. Also commenting on the supplemental proposed methane rule, the American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC) said, “our industry is committed to working with EPA on the federal regulation of methane, in a manner that creates regulatory certainty and allows for domestic producers to provide America and the world with affordable and reliable energy”. “While we are still digesting the full proposal, at the onset we appreciate EPA’s inclusion of many of the recommendations we made for needed changes and clarifications for upstream. We still have concerns that should be addressed to make key provisions truly workable, but we will continue to work with EPA on meaningful solutions,” AXPC added.

FOCUS-In Colorado, oil firms fix leaky wells ahead of new rules - (Reuters) - Northern Colorado's biggest oil producing region is emerging as a test case for energy companies hoping to tackle the industry's most pressing regulatory and environmental problems: capping old wells that leak climate-warming methane and other emissions. In this farming community, oil giant Chevron Corp is sending crews as part of a state-wide push to seal leaks. Once wells are plugged with cement and equipment is removed, workers restore the land to its original state. Colorado, the fifth largest U.S. oil-producing state, has been in the forefront of anti-drilling sentiment spreading across the country. Voters have set limits to operations near homes and schools, banned routine burning of unwanted gas, and imposed restrictions on fracking chemicals. Chevron Corp is running 16 "workover rigs" that do well removal. It plans to deconstruct and plug some 500 old wells in Colorado each year. That work, along with new equipment to clean oil operations, will reduce greenhouse emissions by about 100,000 U.S tons a year, the company said, roughly the same as 21,7000 cars. Since 2016, Chevron has removed 3,400 wells in the state and aims to do another 2,200 over the coming years, part of its effort to make oilfields more green. Companies are also employing electric- instead of diesel-powered rigs, eliminating routine flaring and piping production instead of using heavy trucks. "We've got lower emissions, we have lower ground disturbance. So this is just part of that evolution of what we're doing out here," said Hodge Walker, vice president of Chevron's Rockies Business unit. Critics say these initiatives are "green-washing" that encourage more fossil fuel production that leads to more emissions. Plugging old wells could also become big business for energy and service firms given the sheer number of abandoned wells and $1.15 billion in federal funding being made available to states to seal them. In parts of Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania, natural gas producer Diversified Energy turned its in-house well-plugging unit into a for-profit business. It also removed some 90 of its own at a cost of about $21,000 each in the first half of 2022. It now aims to cap 200 of its own wells per year. But now, he sees a sizeable business from state and federal monies directed to stopping methane leaks. The operation will have 15 rigs and has already won contracts from West Virginia and Ohio to plug orphaned wells that have no identified owners and can leak methane. Environmentalists say the efforts are overdue. "We learn to clean up our own messes in kindergarten. This isn't something that deserves applause, it should be expected," said Anne Lee Foster, a Colorado environmental activist. She said Colorado taxpayers have spent about $5 million a year since 2018 to subsidize the cleaning up of abandoned wells. On a sunny October day, a Chevron crew in Kersey was mid-way through removing a well drilled in 1992 on 78-year-old Bill Klein's farmland. The well, called the Patriot 16-12, is a vertical well that pre-dates the shale oil revolution where new drilling techniques helped propel the U.S. into a world-leading oil and gas producer. "I've never had any problem with the oil companies," says Klein, who for 57 years has owned land around where Patriot 16-12 operated and has collected royalties from oil and gas drilling. He plans to re-farm the land once the wells are safely plugged. That does not mean the oil industry is walking away from Kersey. Several hundred feet from Chevron's plugging work, PDC Energy Inc. is drilling a new, horizontal well, which can span over 2 miles underground. PDC Energy and Chevron regularly share drilling plans to avoid potential collisions that could provide a way for methane to reach the surface.

Colorado air regulators vastly underestimated ozone pollution from some oil and gas operations due to a data error - Colorado air regulators withdrew large parts of a draft plan to cut ozone pollution Friday, acknowledging that it underestimated emissions coming from some oil and gas drilling and hydraulic fracturing operations. The admission, detailed in a notice sent to state air commissioners, sends regulators back to the drawing board as they attempt to bring Front Range air quality into compliance with federal health standards. It also invites new scrutiny onto the state's oil and gas industry, which the state already recognized as the region's largest source of local ozone ingredients — even before they acknowledged the latest data error. Environmental groups praised the latest decision. After criticizing an initial ozone plan released in June, they now see an opportunity to push for new air quality regulations, including rules to limit fracking operations during the summertime ozone season or requiring cleaner, electric drilling rigs. "They're not trying to cover up their mistakes, but actually owning them and acknowledging some hard decisions need to be made," said Jeremy Nichols, the climate program director for WildEarth Guardians, an environmental advocacy group. Colorado air regulators now plan to rewrite large parts of the state's ozone plan before submitting it to federal regulators next year. Lorena Gonzalez, who leads the climate campaign with Conservation Colorado, said the move is appropriate amid what's become an "ozone crisis" on the Front Range. "Chronically high ozone levels put the public at risk, so it really is time we get this situation figured out," Gonzalez said. The pollutant is a well-studied lung irritant linked to many health problems, including asthma, lower birth weights and premature death. Ground-level ozone usually isn't emitted directly into the atmosphere from tailpipes and smokestacks. It comes from a range of sources — cars, factories, wildfires, oil and gas operations — that emit nitrogen dioxide and hydrocarbons into the air. Those "primary pollutants" react in the atmosphere amid heat and sunlight to produce ozone. On the Front Range, most ozone pollution comes from out-of-state "background" pollution, but local sources are responsible for pushing concentrations above federal health standards. Estimates in the state's latest ozone plan show the oil and gas industry is the largest single source of local ozone ingredients followed by cars and other vehicles. The federal government has demanded the state take immediate action. In September, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reclassified a nine-county area stretching from Fort Collins to Castle Rock as a "severe" ozone violator under its 75-parts-per-billion health standard. The agency also maintains a 70-parts-per-billion standard, which it adopted in 2015 to acknowledge growing concern from medical experts about ozone exposure. It named the region a "moderate" violator under the tougher threshold. A plan to bring the region into compliance fell to the Regional Air Quality Council, the lead air quality planning agency for metro Denver. It released a draft of the plan in August before submitting it to the Colorado Air Pollution Control Division.

 Groups petition to keep taxpayers from cleaning oil and gas messes – WyoFile - Conservation and taxpayer advocacy groups filed a petition Wednesday asking the Interior Department and U.S. Bureau of Land Management to make good on promises to reform reclamation bonding requirements that help ensure the cleanup of oil and natural gas production facilities. Current minimum federal bond requirements are not nearly enough to cover the actual cost of cleanup to protect human health and the environment, leaving local residents to suffer the consequences and taxpayers to foot the bill, according to the groups. The Inflation Reduction Act includes $4.7 billion to clean up abandoned oil and gas facilities — a gift to the oil and gas industry that should not continue with future development, they say. “Taxpayers should simply not be on the hook for dealing with these messes,” Natural Resources Defense Council Senior Policy Advocate Josh Axelrod said in a prepared statement. The petition filed by NRDC, Western Organization of Resource Councils and Taxpayers for Common Sense asks the federal agencies to “promulgate rules to ensure oil and gas companies — not the public and taxpayers — are the responsible parties to plug and reclaim all federal oil and gas wells,” the groups stated in the petition. “Taxpayers have bailed out the richest industry on Earth with over $4 billion in taxpayer monies allocated to pay for the plugging and reclamation of orphaned and idle oil and gas wells,” Powder River Basin Resource Council former Executive Director Jill Morrison told reporters at a live-streamed press conference Wednesday. “These are wells that have given the industry billions of dollars in profits, and a lot of it from public minerals.” Reforming the program with higher bond amounts and more stringent reclamation standards is especially important in Wyoming, Morrison said, because most oil and gas production in the state takes place on federal lands and minerals. Wyoming is also the largest target for federal onshore oil and gas lease sales, including a pending sale offering up to 251,000 acres — 392 square miles — in 2023. Despite the industry’s legacy of abandoned facilities, full reclamation — on the operator’s own dime — is the industry standard, Petroleum Association of Wyoming Vice President Ryan McConnaughey told WyoFile. Large operators could meet higher bond amounts, he said, but it would add to the cost of production — and it would inhibit the ability of medium- and small-sized companies to operate in Wyoming. “This is another opportunity for groups who don’t want to see oil and gas drilled in Wyoming to add more costs,” McConnaughey said.

Cleanup underway at Tanzanite Park in Sacramento for diesel spill— Crews are working to clean up a diesel spill at a park in the North Natomas area of Sacramento. The spill happened at Tanzanite Park, near Interstate 80 and Interstate 5. The park is shut down during the cleanup. A report from the Office of Emergency Services shows a 10,000-gallon tank had a "malfunction," and the diesel was released onto the concrete loading dock and into a storm drain. "It came from a storage tank up slope, up stream that had a 10,000 gallon capacity," said Ryan Hanson with the Department of Fish and Wildlife. "We don't have the exact number yet but several thousand gallons has been reported to us as missing." The Office of Spill Prevention and Response is leading the cleanup efforts which began at sunrise Tuesday. The spill originated about a mile north of the park at the Centene Corporation on East Commerce Way. The property management company, Hines, said the spill happened on the loading dock and it's working with the state to help clean up the storm drains and lake. In a statement, Hines said, "At this time, a team is working diligently to clear and clean the storm drains on the property and address areas potentially affected by the storm drains. In doing so, we are working closely with the County, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, and the Office of Emergency Management to resolve these issues. We will provide updates as the work proceeds under proper regulatory oversight.” The source of the leak has been stopped. Wildlife care specialists with the Oiled Wildlife Care Network of Cordelia are on the scene and have already rescued at least two birds that are being treated at the San Francisco Wildlife Care and Education Center. The specialists are walking along the banks and park looking for other birds and wildlife affected by the spill. "It affects their feathers primarily which impacts their ability to thermos regulate so they preen a lot which means they are ingesting oil while they are cleaning their feathers," said Greg McGowan with the wildlife branch of the Office of Spill Prevention and Response. Neighbors said the park is usually filled with gaggle of geese and migratory mallards and other birds. There are also turtles and beavers that live around the lake. "We will continue to do reconnaissance, looking for birds, looking for behavior that is abnormal and other wildlife in the pond," McGowan said. The Office of Health Hazard and Assessment will test water samples to see if there is any danger to the fish in the lake. The Sacramento Fire Department is testing the air quality in the area because the spill happened near a neighborhood. Crews will continue the cleanup Wednesday morning.

Natomas-area park still closed after large diesel spill - CBS Sacramento - A Natomas park is still shut down on Thursday following a diesel spill that polluted a nearby pond. The spill happened at a business about a mile from Tanzanite Park. Neighbors living near the park first reported the oil spill over the weekend, but it wasn't until Monday when the property management company reported the spill to emergency services.The tank containing more than 10,000 gallons of diesel belonged to the Natomas Development Partners on East Commerce Way.According to the incident report, an oil tank malfunction caused the diesel to release onto a concrete loading dock and into the storm drain.The Oiled Wildlife Care Network is on site monitoring wildlife in the area and making sure they don't go into t he pond. Their numbers show that a total of 18 birds have been recovered from the spill, with 3 of those animals having died.

California's climate plan calls for no new gas power plants - California regulators announced initiatives Wednesday to speed up the state’s clean-energy transition by cutting demand for fossil fuels by the end of the decade, including ending the construction of new gas-burning power plants — moves that would help combat climate change but could put the state at higher risk of power blackouts.The proposal, which goes before the California Air Resources Board for a vote next month, lays out how the state could reach its goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, one of the most ambitious timelines in the nation. While it does not have the force of a legal ban on new gas power plants, its approval would make clear to other state agencies, including the California Public Utilities Commission, the state’s current policy.If California follows through on the proposal, planet-warming emissions are expected to fall 85 percent below 1990 levels by 2045. California would also blow past its interim target, which requires that emissions fall by 40 percent by 2030. The new plan anticipates a cut of 48 percent by the end of the decade.“The climate is changing before our eyes. We need to take action to reduce the worst impacts of a changing climate and there is only one way to do that, break forever our dependence on fossil fuels,” said Liane Randolph, chair of the air board. Yet she cautioned that reaching the state’s targets would be a challenge. The plan “calls for a build-out of renewable energy resources at a rate we have never seen before in this state,” she said.Gov. Gavin Newsom praised the proposal. “It’s the most ambitious set of climate goals of any jurisdiction in the world, and if adopted, it’ll spur an economic transformation akin to the industrial revolution,” he said in a statement following the plan’s release.Some environmental advocates were less impressed. Catherine Garoupa White, executive director of the Central Valley Air Quality Coalition, said that while board staff had made changes to the plan in response to pressure from advocates, it remained overly reliant on technological advances to curb emissions and was not as aggressive as she and others had hoped.“It’s important to keep in mind that this document is just a plan, and there is currently no enforcement strategy for ensuring any of these changes happen in the real world,” she said.Though an earlier proposal would have allowed the state to expand its use of gas, regulators said they ultimately struck this part at the urging of climate advocates speaking on behalf of disadvantaged neighborhoods near oil refineries and gas plants.California’s aspirations of transitioning rapidly to clean energy have been frustrated by the continuing threat of rolling blackouts, especially on hot summer nights when air conditioners are buzzing and the state can’t tap power from solar farms. To keep power flowing, the state has added giant new battery systems that can store the extra energy produced by solar panels during the day.

 Significant back-to-back earthquakes in northern B.C. 'very likely' caused by fracking: federal expert - Two significant earthquakes within a week in northeast B.C. were probably triggered by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, according to preliminary information from federal scientists. On Nov. 11, Earthquakes Canada reported a 4.7-magnitude earthquake, 132 kilometres northwest of Fort St. John. That was followed four days later by a 4.6-magnitude quake recorded just a kilometre away from the first seismic event. "There is an active hydraulic fracturing operation nearby," said Prof. Honn Kao, a research scientist with the Geological Survey of Canada. "The likelihood of these two events being induced by industry is very high." Earthquakes Canada said while the tremors were "lightly felt in the surrounding area," there were no reports of damage. Fracking involves injecting fluids into a deep well under high pressure to fracture tight rock formations and release the natural gas inside. According to the B.C. Oil and Gas Commission (BCOGC), the province's energy regulator, fracking in B.C. takes place deeper underground than it does in other areas of the world — sometimes more than four kilometres beneath the surface. In an email to CBC News, the BCOGC said all drilling in the Montney formation near Fort St John B.C., "has or will eventually involve hydraulic fracturing operations." According to information on the BCOGC's website, "microseismic events" occur when fluid fractures the rock. "In some cases, where there is a susceptible pre-existing fault, slippage on the fault plane can occur," it says.

EPA orders troubled St. Croix refinery to obtain new permit - The Washington Post The Environmental Protection Agency said Thursday it will require an idled refinery in the U.S. Virgin Islands that rained oil onto nearby homes to obtain a new air pollution permit before restarting operations. The move, which comes after EPA inspectors found the plant could release “extremely hazardous substances” affecting disadvantaged residents in St. Croix, escalates the agency’s crackdown on the plant and could establish a precedent for how the Biden administration treatscommunities suffering from high pollution levels.“EPA has been laser-focused on protecting public health and the safety of communities who have unjustly borne the burden of pollution,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said on a call with reporters. “We’ve made environmental justice and equity a centerpiece of our agenda and have embedded these issues into EPA’s DNA.” The refinery’s owners must apply for a permit under the Clean Air Act that would require them to conduct detailed air-quality analyses, the agency said in a statement, and use the best available technology for air pollution control. The move would probably result in “significant reductions” of several harmful pollutants, including sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide and particulate matter, the agency said. The idled plant in St. Croix, formerly known as the Limetree Bay refinery, experienced multiple accidents over the course of last year that spewed noxious fumes and showered oil droplets onto surrounding homes, sending some residents to emergency rooms. In September, the EPA inspected the refinery and found “significant corrosion” of equipment including valves, pipes and pressure relief devices. Inspectors concluded that the plant poses the risk of a fire, explosion or other “catastrophic” releases of “extremely hazardous substances,” the agency said in a report released last month. A refinery rained oil on thousands of St. Croix homes. Now it could reopen. Local residents have questioned why federal officials have not done more to protect the health and safety of this Caribbean island’s predominantly Black and Brown population. “Since 2019, St. Croix Foundation and our nonprofit partners have been on a lonely advocacy journey trying to compel policymakers to consider alternatives to this ‘ticking time bomb’ on our shores — to no avail,” Deanna James, president of the St. Croix Foundation for Community Development, said in an email last month.

Gulf of Mexico an Area of Increasing Instability -The Gulf of Mexico continues to be an area of increasing instability, according to Dryad Global, which made the statement in its latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA). In the MSTA, Dryad revealed that reporting had indicated that an OSV had been boarded and robbed offshore Campeche. Reporting had also indicated that a spate of three incidents involving attacks on fishing vessels had occurred in the Gulf of Mexico, “resulting in the theft of outboard motors and other properties”, Dryad highlighted in the MSTA. Dryad’s latest MSTA rates Mexico’s risk rating as “substantial” and the country’s Dos Bocas port terminal risk rating as “moderate”. These risk ratings were identical in Dryad Global’s previous MSTA, which was released last week. Countries with the highest risk rating in the latest MSTA include Ukraine, Yemen, and Syria. At the time of writing, a U.S. State Department map warns travelers to exercise increased caution at every Mexican state bordering the Gulf of Mexico, except Taumalipas, which has a do not travel warning, and Yucatan and Campeche, which have an “exercise normal precautions” advisory. Back in September, Dryad’s Global Chief Executive Officer, Corey Ranslem, revealed to Rigzone that the most dangerous offshore region for oil and gas, in terms of rig work, was the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. “We have seen the number and types of attacks increase over the past year along with the level of violence. Assailants are now armed and are increasing the number of attacks against oil rigs in this region,” Ranslem told Rigzone. A Dryad MSTA released in August outlined that the Gulf of Mexico was in the midst of a pirate problem. “There has been an increase in the cadence of incidents in the Gulf of Mexico,” the MSTA stated at the time. “Since 22 May 2022, there have been six maritime events just within the Bay of Campeche. Three supply vessels have been attacked, and three oil platforms,” the MSTA added.

Climate emergency council faces environmental pressure before fracking decision is made - A Conservative-led council which declared a climate emergency this summer has faced intense pressure from opposition councillors to reconsider how its environmental actions are managed before postponing a decision on whether fracking is appropriate in the area. A full meeting of North Yorkshire County Council saw a North Yorkshire Climate Coalition, which includes 18 environmental groups based from Selby to Stokesley, calling on the authority to move “further and faster” over environmental issues, and drop party politics to introduce measures more rapidly. The coalition pressed the council to address the twin climate and ecological emergencies and to harness “huge economic opportunities” during a transition to a cleaner, greener economy. The meeting was told that the authority’s leader, Councillor Carl Les, had this week called for people to support the Yorkshire and Humber Climate Change Commission move to declare an ecological emergency, before his Conservative group voted to stop the creation of a biodiversity crisis working group at the council. Councillor Greg White, executive member for climate change and customer engagement, said the authority did not want to judged on what it said, but rather its actions, and that its plan for cutting carbon was “bold”. Coun White added while the council was working to introduce carbon-cutting measures it also needed to focus on its main purpose, which was to provide much-needed services. Nevertheless, opposition councillors insisted more action and a greater focus was needed. The administration then faced numerous questions from opposition members over its environmental actions, ranging from public transport to buying zero carbon electricity, and from installing air source heat pumps to offloading pension fund investments in fossil fuels.

Tories under pressure to make fracking ban ‘U-turn proof’ -Conservative MPs are being urged to formally pledge that they will never vote for fracking, following months of uncertainty in which successive Tory administrations have flip-flopped over going ahead with drilling operations across the country. The Liberal Democrats have secured a debate in Westminster Hall on Tuesday opposing any fracking in England without the support of local communities. The move is intended to make the current moratorium on fracking, recently reinstated by Rishi Sunak, "U-turn proof". The Conservatives backed a "fracking revolution" in their 2017 manifesto – the only party to support the practice – when Theresa May was prime minister, but amid national outcry, this was dropped in 2019 under Boris Johnson. When Liz Truss and Mr Sunak campaigned against one another to succeed Mr Johnson as prime minister earlier this year they both said they would U-turn on the manifesto pledge and support fracking if local communities supported it. Following her victory over Mr Sunak, Ms Truss’s energy secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg lifted the ban on fracking and reportedly began examining ways to reduce environmental and public scrutiny of such drilling projects. The row escalated after the Labour Party tabled a vote on whether to outlaw fracking, and Ms Truss ordered MPs to vote with her administration on the fraught issue, effectively telling her MPs to vote against a key 2019 manifesto pledge. Amid farcical scenes in the House of Commons, a Tory revolt ultimately brought down the curtain on Ms Truss’s disastrous premiership. In total, 326 Conservative MPs voted against a ban, defeating Labour’s motion, but many had felt compelled to vote along party lines, despite their stated opposition to fracking. After Ms Truss’s record-short stint as prime minister, Mr Sunak then U-turned again, to reinstate the 2019 moratorium. Liberal Democrat Levelling Up spokesperson Helen Morgan, who secured Tuesday’s debate, told The Independent: “Conservative MPs have lurched to different positions on fracking from month to month. Who knows what they will do next?

North Sea Can Fuel UK For 30 Years, But More Investment Is Needed - The waters off the coast of the UK still contain oil and gas reserves equivalent to 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent, enough to fuel the UK for 30 years, but more investment in exploration is needed to slow down the decline in production. OEUK said that just four exploration wells had been drilled this year compared to 16 in 2019, the most recent pre-pandemic year comparison. The Exploration Insight report published by Offshore Energies UK shows how the offshore energy industry is balancing the UK’s continuing demand for energy while supporting the transition to a low-carbon energy economy through its commitment to deliver net zero emissions by 2050. The Insight report assesses oil and gas exploration over the past ten years, explores the potential for future developments, and considers how the 33rd offshore licensing round will impact exploration while reflecting on opportunities for the expanding sector to support the UK’s climate goals through the development of critical carbon capture and storage facilities. “Our new report shows why ongoing exploration in our waters is critical to ensuring reliable supplies of domestically produced energy which also adds value to the UK economy. The UK Continental Shelf is a mature basin, with North Sea oil and gas production peaking in 2000 so careful management of the remaining resources is vital to avoid rapidly increasing reliance on imports. Supporting this industry and its exploration activities is essential to the UK delivering a homegrown transition to cleaner energies, retaining the benefits in taxes paid, jobs supported, and our wider economic contribution,” Mark Wilson, OEUK’s HSE and Operations Director, said. However, the ongoing uncertainty and continuous changes to the fiscal regime will drive investment out of the UK and encourage some companies to leave the basin. In such conditions, companies are unable to plan the future long-term investments we need to support energy security and our net-zero commitments. “Low levels of exploration mean on a ten-year average; we are replacing only 10 percent of the reserves we need to sustain the production levels that can help to keep the UK energy secure and power its energy transition. We need to ensure that the UK government’s British Energy Security Strategy made clear the need to support the production of North Sea oil and gas, alongside the deployment of offshore wind, solar, and hydrogen, which continues to be the focus of the new Prime Minister and his government. It was good to see the importance of oil and gas to the transition to a low carbon economy and energy security recognized with the launch of the 33rd licensing round following the completion of the new climate compatibility checkpoint.” “Our new report shows why ongoing exploration in our waters is critical to ensuring reliable supplies of domestically produced energy which also adds value to the UK economy. The UK Continental Shelf is a mature basin, with North Sea oil and gas production peaking in 2000 so careful management of the remaining resources is vital to avoid rapidly increasing reliance on imports. Supporting this industry and its exploration activities is essential to the UK delivering a homegrown transition to cleaner energies, retaining the benefits in taxes paid, jobs supported, and our wider economic contribution,” Wilson added

Diesel Price Sees Third Biggest Monthly Increase on Record -UK motoring services company RAC has revealed that the average price of diesel saw its third biggest monthly increase on record in October. The average price of the commodity rose from 180.37pence ($2.15) to 190.51p ($2.27), RAC highlighted, adding that the rise added more than GBP 5 ($5.96) to a tank. The rise ranked third behind an increase of 22p ($0.26) in March this year and an increase of 16p ($0.19) in June this year, RAC outlined. “After three months of falling pump prices October was a severe shock to the system for drivers with the unwelcome return of some scary numbers on forecourt totems,” RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams said in a company statement. “Those with diesel vehicles suffered most with 10p ($0.12) being added to the cost of a liter in what was the third worst monthly increase on record, but petrol car drivers also saw a 4p-a-litre ($0.05) increase across the country,” Williams added. The RAC spokesman noted that OPEC+’s decision to cut supply by two million barrels a day had “cost drivers dear” and said “the fear now, particularly for diesel drivers, is whether the average price of a liter is heading back to that record of 199.09p ($2.37) which made a full tank cost more than GBP 109 ($129.97)”. According to RAC’s fuel watch tool, the latest UK average diesel price is 188.72p ($2.25) per liter. This price “should fall sharply”, however, according to the tool, which was last updated on November 15. A chart posted on RAC’s website, which includes data spanning back to January 2013, shows that the average UK diesel pump price, including VAT, rose sharply from February to July this year, before dropping from July to October then rising again to November. The lowest recorded average price, according to the chart, was seen in February 2016 at 100.19p ($1.19).

IEA Says Diesel Demand Destruction Starting to Look Inevitable - Unprecedented diesel prices mean that demand destruction for the fuel is probable, the International Energy Agency said. Both the outright price of the fuel and its trading level relative to crude oil rose to records in October, jumping 70% and 425% respectively year-on-year, the Paris-based adviser said in its monthly report on the state of the oil market. With economic growth showing signs of weakening in the face of high inflation and energy costs, those high prices could well prove self-defeating, the agency said. “This increasingly ominous global outlook, along with very high prices, is set to significantly curtail diesel demand in 2023,” the IEA said. The IEA forecast that global growth in diesel and gasoil will ease from 1.5 million barrels a day in 2021, to 400,000 in this year. In 2023, consumption will post a small decline “under the weight of persistently high prices, a slowing economy and despite increased gas-to-oil switching.” Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, diesel markets were in deficit because of a combination of halted refineries during Covid and then resurgent demand as countries dealt with the pandemic, the adviser to oil consuming nations said. The war has led to the European Union announcing a ban on the purchase of Russian diesel that enters into force in February but is already an intense focal point for the market. Russia remains the continent’s biggest external supplier and Europe is likewise the top buyer from Moscow, creating uncertainty how global flows will be affected once the prohibition begins. “The competition for non-Russian diesel barrels will be fierce, with EU countries having to bid cargoes from the US, Middle East and India away from their traditional buyers,” the IEA said. “Increased refinery capacity will eventually help ease diesel tensions. However, until then, if prices go too high, further demand destruction may be inevitable for the market imbalances to clear.”

EUROPE GAS-Prices mixed on colder weather outlook, strong LNG flows - British and Dutch wholesale prompt gas prices were mixed on Monday with strong demand due to outages and colder weather partly offset by high liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. The Dutch day-ahead contract rose by 31 euros to 99.75 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 1013 GMT, while the December contract was up 7.7 euros at 106.5 euros/MWh, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. “The way is up for today with all the planned and unplanned outages, consumption is higher and its getting colder,” a European gas trader said. Equinor’s Aasgard B oil and gas processing platform was shut and partly evacuated late Sunday following a fire in a transformer, causing a production outage. The shutdown resulted in an outage of gas production amounting to 19.8 million cubic metres (mcm) per day with “uncertain duration and capacity consequence”, Aasgard’s pipeline operator Gassco said in a regulatory filing. Norwegian gas nominations to Europe dropped to 304 mcm on Monday from 312 mcm the previous day. In the British gas market the day-ahead contract was down 22 pence at 77 pence per therm. In Britain, peak wind generation is forecast at 8.13 gigawatts (GW) on Monday but will rise to almost 16 (GW) on Tuesday, Elexon data showed. Strong wind power output curbs demand from gas-fired power plants. Maintenance at the Interconnector UK pipeline connecting Britain with Belgium from Tuesday also reduces Britain’s ability to pump any excess gas to the continent. The British December gas contract was up 9.5 p at 238 p/therm, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. An adjustment to the weather forecast towards colder temperatures well below seasonal norms by the end week is also supporting the uptrend. However, LNG cargoes to north-west Europe, particularly Britain, remain strong, putting some pressure on prices. In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 was down 0.62 euro at 75.22 euros a tonne.

Germany inaugurates first new LNG terminal - The German government inaugurated its first floating terminal on Tuesday (15 November), built in record time and intended to receive liquefied natural gas as part of Berlin’s plan to replace Russian gas, with the first regasification ship set to dock in mid-December. Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, a halt in the supply of gas from Gazprom, and the subsequent destruction of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Germany is missing about 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in yearly deliveries. Hastily constructed infrastructure to facilitate the import of LNG is Berlin’s way out. LNG is supercooled and highly pressurised gas, turned into a liquid state fit for long-haul transport. Turning it back into gas requires specialised equipment – so-called regasification units. On Tuesday, Olaf Lies, the economy minister of the German state of Lower Saxony, toured the port of Wilhelmshaven. After six months, construction of the infrastructure to support an inbound floating LNG terminal (FSRU) – a pier, pipelines, and electricity lines – was completed. “Germany is looking to Wilhelmshaven today. The new LNG terminal is a big step towards a secure energy supply,” highlighted Lies, noting the early decision to focus on Wilhelmshaven and existing port infrastructure as the key drivers of speed, thanking “all planners, experts and construction companies involved.” The completion in 194 days represented an unprecedented pace of construction in Germany, made possible by permitting exceptions and forgoing environmental impact assessments. These FSRUs are essentially LNG tankers that can regasify LNG instead of merely transporting it. In mid-December, the ship Hoegh Esperanza, built in 2018, is set to arrive. It was previously on three-year deployment in the Chinese port of Tianjin. A subsequent deployment in Australia had been cancelled on grounds of environmental concerns. The FSRU, which is more than 280 metres long and 46 metres wide, can regasify a minimum of 5 bcm of LNG annually, with a maximum capacity of 7.5 bcm. It will feed the gas into the German gas grid through a pipeline with an annual capacity of 10 bcm. A second FSRU is expected in late December, followed by another three next year. In total, the German government hopes to replace 50 to 60% of Russian gas through LNG in 2023. Environmental groups, who were largely left out of the construction process, have voiced concerns about pollution. Uniper, the ailing gas giant and operator of the infrastructure, is expected to clean its facilities using Chlorine, which will then be vented into the sea. “A creeping chemical accident looms in Wilhelmshaven and at the other LNG sites,” explained Sascha Müller-Kraenner, CEO of Environmental Action Germany (DUH). “According to the application documents, Uniper wants to discharge ten times as much biocide into the North Sea with its LNG terminal vessel as … was previously deemed acceptable at a comparable location,” he added. They are in part backed by the new government in Lower Saxony, where the Greens are the junior partner and in charge of the environment ministry.

Mozambique ships gas to Europe for first time -Mozambique has started exporting Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) for the first time, in a move the country’s President Filipe Nyusi has described as historic. The gas has been produced at an off-shore plant run by Italian energy firm Eni, but British oil giant BP has the purchasing rights over it. The gas left in a British cargo ship for Europe, but its final destination is unclear. The shipment comes at a time when Europe is looking for alternative sources of gas, as it tries to reduce its reliance on Russia. Mozambique hopes to become one of the world's biggest exporters of natural gas, following its discovery in the northern Cabo Delgado province in 2010. But its efforts have been hampered by a five-year-long Islamist insurgency that has killed more than 4,000 people and left hundreds of thousands homeless in the province. The Government believes the discovery of gas will boost the economy, but President Nyusi said Mozambique would continue to focus on "traditional activities", such as agriculture, fishing, tourism, to achieve development.

Eni Ships First LNG Shipment From Coral FLNG -The first shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced from the Coral gas field in the ultra-deep waters of the Rovuma Basin has just departed from Coral Sul Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) facility. Italian oil and gas major Eni, the delegated operator of the Coral South project on behalf of its Area 4 Partners, said that Coral South was a landmark project for the industry and firmly placed Mozambique on the global LNG stage. The project, sanctioned in 2017, comes on stream after just 5 years, in line with the initial budget and schedule, despite the disruptions caused by the Covid pandemic. According to the company, this result was made possible thanks to Eni’s distinctive phased and parallelized approach, very effective execution planning, strong commitment by all partners, and the unwavering support of the Government of Mozambique. Coral Sul FLNG has a gas liquefaction capacity of 3.4 million tons per year and will produce LNG from the 450 billion cubic meters of gas of the Coral reservoir. “The first shipment of LNG from Coral South project, and from Mozambique, is a new and significant step forward in Eni’s strategy to leverage gas as a source that can contribute in a significant way to Europe’s energy security, also through the increasing diversification of supplies, while also supporting a just and sustainable transition. We will continue to work with our partners to ensure timely valorization of Mozambique’s vast gas resources,” Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said. As for Area 4, it is operated by Mozambique Rovuma Venture, an incorporated joint venture owned by Eni, ExxonMobil, and CNPC, which holds a 70 percent interest in Area 4 exploration and production concession contract. In addition to the joint venture, the other shareholders in Area 4 are Galp, KOGAS, and ENH, each with a 10 percent participation interest. Eni is the Delegated Operator for the Coral South project and all Upstream activities in Area 4.

Eni Starts Up Production From Oil Field Onshore Algeria - Italian oil company Eni announces the start-up of the HDLE/HDLS oil field, in Zemlet el Arbi concession in the Berkine North Basin, onshore Algeria, only six months after its discovery in March. Eni said that the HDLE/HDLS field was currently producing 10,000 barrels of oil per day (bod). Production ramp-up will be achieved through an accelerated development plan which envisages the drilling of new wells in 2023. This achievement, reached in partnership with Sonatrach and in cooperation with the local authorities, was made possible by Eni’s distinctive upstream business model, based on the parallelization of project activities. HDLE/HDLS fast track development, in addition to the recent Berkine South start-up, will contribute towards exceeding 120,000 boed of equity production in Algeria in 2023, strengthening the role of Eni as the main international energy company operating in the country.

Slovenia to sign three-year gas contract with Algeria’s Sonatrach - Slovenia’s gas supplier Geoplin will sign a natural gas supply contract with Algeria’s state-owned energy company Sonatrach on Tuesday, the Slovenian Press Agency (STA) reported. The three-year contract includes the purchase of about 300 million cubic metres of natural gas per year, which is about a third of Slovenia's current annual consumption, STA said. The Algerian gas will be transported to Slovenia via a pipeline running through Tunisia and Italy. Europe is in the midst of its worst energy crisis after Russia, the region’s biggest natural gas supplier, curtailed exports sharply in response to EU sanctions over its military offensive in Ukraine. Russia supplies most of Slovenia’s natural gas, which accounts for 12 per cent of overall energy mix. The EU member state relies mostly on hydroelectric, thermal and nuclear power sources to meet its electricity requirements. In 2018, Geoplin signed a five-year natural gas supply contract with Gazprom to import 600 mcm of Russian natural gas per year. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced Slovenia to reconsider its energy policy and seek alternate sources such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Algeria, a member of Opec, relies heavily on oil and gas, which accounted for 19 per cent of GDP, 93 per cent of product exports, and 38 per cent of budget revenue between 2016 and 2021, the World Bank said. Algeria is Africa's biggest gas exporter and supplies about 11 per cent of the natural gas consumed in Europe.

Military Drills in Gas-Rich Algeria Put Focus on Russian Ties -Algeria and Russia began their first joint military exercises on Algerian soil amid Western concerns over Moscow’s deepening ties with the North African nation that’s a key energy supplier for Europe. The Desert Shield anti-terrorism training began Wednesday in the sparsely-populated Bechar province, near Algeria’s border with long-time rival Morocco, the Russian state news service Sputnik reported. An OPEC member on the Mediterranean, Algeria has been thrust into the limelight of international diplomacy this year as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sends Europe scouring the region for replacement natural gas and oil. French, Spanish and Italian leaders have visited Algiers several times this year to secure or boost shipments. But as Algeria bolsters its links with Europe it’s also intensifying cooperation with Russia. About 80 soldiers from each country are participating in the drills that’ll last until Nov. 28. It follows similar training in Russia last year, and come a month after joint naval maneuvers in the Mediterranean. Algeria sells the vast bulk of its oil and gas to Europe and before the war was its biggest supplier after Russia and Norway. At the same time, Russia is Algeria’s biggest arms supplier, with defense ties that go back to the era of the Soviet Union. The Arab nation gets close to 80% of its weapons imports from Russia and is the third-biggest buyer of such arms after India and China, according to the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, which conducts research on the defense industry. Algeria is considering signing a new long-term arms deal with Russia worth as much as $17 billion for the purchase of submarines, Su-57 stealth fighters and other warplanes and advanced air-defense systems including the S-400, Russian state channel RT reported Oct. 31. Russian Arms The 10-year contract may be finalized during a visit to Moscow in December by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, it said, citing Africa Intelligence, a newsletter published from Paris. The current tensions “are only pushing us closer together,” said Elena Suponina, a Moscow-based Middle East expert, referring to Algeria and Russia. “Algeria is refusing to adopt an anti-Russian stance.” The US and Morocco earlier this year staged part of their regular African Lion military drills close to the Algerian border. Aligning itself with countries such as Cuba and China, Algeria abstained twice this year from voting on UN resolutions condemning the war in Ukraine and the annexation of parts of its territory. In turn, Russia has opted for a neutral stance regarding the dispute over Western Sahara -- a former Spanish colony that Morocco claims in a stand off with the Algeria-supported Polisario Front. Republican Senator Marco Rubio and a bi-partisan group of US lawmakers in September urged the Biden administration to impose sanctions against Algeria over the Russian arms purchases. Russia says the military exercises with Algeria are “routine” and are “not aimed against any third country,” according to a Foreign Ministry statement in September. S

Poland Takes Control of Gazprom's Local Gas Pipeline Assets -

• State to manage Russian company’s stake in section of Yamal
• Gazprom held 48% of company that owns Polish stretch of link

Poland introduced compulsory administration over Gazprom PJSC’s stake in the company that owns the local part of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, tightening the government’s grip over Russian assets in the country. The Development Ministry is taking over the Russian exporter’s share in EuRoPol Gaz SA, it said on the website. Gazprom held 48% of the firm, with Polish state companies owning the remainder. The “temporary” measure was necessary to facilitate decision-making at the company, according to the ministry.

Nigeria To Build Its First-Ever Floating LNG Unit -UTM Floating LNG Limited, JGC, Technip Energies, and KBR have signed a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) contract for the development of Nigeria’s first FLNG facility. With the signed contract, the development of the FLNG facility in block OML 204 offshore Nigeria will kick off. According to Chief Timipre Sylva, the Nigerian Minister of Petroleum Resources, with factors such as a lack of investment, transportation and export infrastructure, and technological challenges disrupting Nigeria from maximizing its gas industry, the FLNG project is a step forward in the right direction for the west African country to develop, exploit and monetize its over 209 trillion cubic feet of proven gas resources and a potential upside of 600 tcf of gas. “Given the large resources that may be developed and used for commercial purposes, we have already proclaimed that gas is our transition fuel and a destination fuel, and we anticipate that it will be a major component of our energy mix by the year 2060. As a developing nation, we believe that affordable, accessible, and reliable energy will continue to be essential to sustaining and powering our growing economy and lifting millions out of poverty. As a government, we know our action is essential to enable the evolution of the energy system. We believe innovation, technology, and policy will be the key drivers of change” “We are aware that the number of offshore gas finds has surged in recent years around the world, with LNG and FLNG becoming even more important in terms of satisfying the world's future energy needs. According to market research analysts, the FLNG market is estimated to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 27.14%, reaching $88.99 billion by 2024. The UTM offshore FLNG project is therefore timely and will lead towards a faster-moving, more diverse, and more flexible global LNG industry,” Sylva said. The minister also highlighted the importance of collaborative partnership, commending the “African Export-Import Bank, under the leadership of its President and Chairman, Benedict Okey Oramah, for orchestrating the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding with UTM Offshore to raise $5 billion for the development of Nigeria’s first FLNG project.”

Petronas Confirms Fire at Gas Pipeline -Petronas has confirmed that a “fire incident” occurred at the Sabah-Sarawak Gas Pipeline (SSGP) near KP 132, nearby Lawas, Sarawak, on Wednesday afternoon. The incident is believed to have involved a third-party contractor performing work unrelated to SSGP operations nearby the pipeline’s Right-of-Way (ROW) area, Petronas said in a company statement. Petronas noted that a police report had been lodged with regard to the incident and stated that an investigation will commence “in earnest”. “Petronas’ emergency response team has been mobilized to the area,” Petronas said. “The company will work closely with all the relevant authorities to take the necessary action and preventive measures to contain the situation and safeguard the safety of the surrounding community and environment,” Petronas added. Last month, Petronas revealed that it had declared force majeure on gas supply to MLNG Dua due to a pipeline leak caused by soil movement at the vicinity of KP201, SSGP, which the company said occurred on September 21. Petronas noted at the time that it was conducting a comprehensive evaluation of the SSGP to ensure the integrity and safety of the pipeline. The SSGP is a 318 mile, 36-inch pipeline with a capacity of 750 million cubic feet per day, which links the gas fields in Sabah to the MLNG export complex at Bintulu, global energy research company Wood Mackenzie highlights on its website. Petronas describes its LNG complex at Bintulu as the “bedrock” of its operations and “one of the world’s largest LNG facilities in a single location”. To date, Petronas has delivered over 12,000 LNG cargoes across the world from its portfolio of global LNG assets, according to the company’s website. Petronas describes itself as Malaysia’s fully integrated energy provider. The company is involved in a variety of energy related activities, including exploration, production, refining, chemicals, marketing and trading.

Pakistan ‘Has No Option But To Ration’ Natural Gas Supply This Winter - Pakistan has no other option but to ration natural gas supply this winter, with gas provided three times a day for cooking to households, amid acute shortages and a forex crisis in the world’s fifth most populous country, an official from the petroleum ministry told a Parliament panel this week. The energy crisis in Pakistan has deepened this year, and now, natural gas supplies will be very limited for households, according to officials.“There would be no gas supply (to household consumers) for 16 hours” a day, Muhammad Mahmood told the Parliament’s Standing Committee on Petroleum, as carried by the local outlet Dawn. Pakistani households will have gas available for three hours in the morning, two hours in the afternoon, and three hours in the evening, Mahmood added.Pakistan—whose population is the fifth largest in the world after China, India, the United States, and Indonesia—has been experiencing an energy crisis as the country cannot afford to import a lot of energy products at the current high prices. The stronger U.S. dollar and the sky-high LNG prices have worsened the country’s finances, with foreign exchange reserves down in October to their lowest level in three years.In April, soaring prices of LNG and coal on the international markets left Pakistan with having to cut electricity supply to households and industry as the country, in a deep political and economic crisis, could not afford to buy more of the expensive fossil fuels.This year, Europe has been outbidding Asian customers for LNG supply as it has scrambled to secure gas supply with very low pipeline imports from Russia. High spot rates for LNG have discouraged many buyers and users of the super-chilled fuel in Asia, including in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Meanwhile, industry customers across South Asia have turned to fuel oil because of the high prices of natural gas. In Pakistan, oil-fired power generation has surged five-fold this year,

Trump's former Treasury secretary calls Russian oil price cap ‘most ridiculous idea I’ve ever heard’ - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin described the G-7's plan for a price cap on Russian oil as "ridiculous."Speaking to CNBC's Hadley Gamble during a panel at the Milken Institute's Middle East and Africa Summit, Mnuchin said the idea was "not only not feasible, I think it's the most ridiculous idea I've ever heard."He added that while there were no certainties, sanctions on Russia and Russian officials — which the U.S. and other nations have continued to roll out since Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine — could have had an impact before the war started rather than after."Sanctions would have had a big impact back then. I think the problem now is that there's limited options ... there's parts of the world that are now buying Russian oil outside of U.S. sanctions," he said."But look, a price cap, the market is going to set the price. So if you put sanctions on at higher prices, in a way you're just making the situation worse, in my opinion."The Group of Seven nations — the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.K. — along with Australia, have reportedly agreed to set a fixed price cap on Russian oil from Dec. 5, but the level has not been announced.The plan, which has been under discussion for several months, involves a ban on the provision of certain services, such as maritime routes, insurance and financing, to buyers of Russian oil unless it is sold at or below the cap.It is intended to limit the Kremlin's ability to fund the war in Ukraine while also protecting consumers and households from sky-high energy prices. New sanctions are also due in early December that will end all Russian crude oil deliveries to the EU by sea, ahead of a ban on all Russian refined products in 2023.As Europe seeks to wean itself off Russian oil and gas, Moscow has ramped up its sale of oil to countries including China and India. Energy analysts sayit will be vital to get those countries' cooperation for any price cap to be effective, but it remains unclear how they will react to any final announcement.Current U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week India would still be able to buy oil from Russia at any price so long as it avoided the Western sanctions, and that this scenario would still dampen global oil prices and curb Russian oil revenues.Mnuchin served for the full term of President Donald Trump and now works in private equity investing.At the Milken Institute panel, he said getting Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the negotiating table was "long overdue" and that a best-case scenario in the near term may be a pause in fighting.Ukraine has previously said it will only enter talks following the "restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity."

IEA Sees Russia Oil Output Nosediving - Russia may struggle to find new markets for its oil once a European import ban kicks in, potentially pushing the nation’s average output below 10 million barrels a day next year, according to the International Energy Agency. Russia has redirected more than a million barrels a day to India, China and Turkey since many of its traditional customers fell away following the invasion of Ukraine, the agency said Tuesday. Yet flows to those countries have steadied recently, raising speculation they may not be able to ramp up imports further. Should their purchases remain stable, the rest of the world would need to triple Russian imports to around 3.3 million barrels a day by February, the IEA said in a report. “We do not think this is feasible,” it said, predicting Russia may lose close to 2 million barrels a day of output by the end of March, compared with prewar levels, and pump an average of just 9.6 million barrels a day next year. Russia’s production in January through October averaged about 10.7 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on media reports and data from the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit. The European Union is set to ban imports of most Russian crude on Dec. 5 and refined products from Feb. 5. The move will not only create production risks for Russia, but exacerbate a supply headache for the region as alternative fuel sources may not be enough to fill the gap. The bloc will also prohibit EU-flagged tankers from shipping Russian cargoes and ban the provision of maritime services, including insurance, to third-party vessels involved in the trade. That may further hamper the redirection of Russian crude flows away from Europe. Buyers and sellers of the barrels are set to expand their use of “shadow trade, including high-sea transshipments using ‘dark’ tankers,” the IEA said. Based on October data, the Kremlin will need to find new markets for roughly 1.5 million barrels a day of crude and 1 million barrels of oil products, according to the IEA.

Russia allows Japan to keep stake in Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project -The Russian government has decided to allow Japan to maintain its stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas development project in Russia’s Far East, the Japanese government said Tuesday. “The decision is very significant for stable energy supplies to our country over the medium to long term,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told reporters.

Azerbaijan Exports 21.9M Tons Of Oil In Jan-Oct 2022 -Azerbaijan exported 21.9 million tons of oil from January to October 2022, Azernews reports, citing Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov. According to the operational data, 27.2 million tons of oil were extracted in the country in the first 10 months of 2022, he added. Moreover, the minister noted that 38.4 billion cubic meters of gas were produced during this period, adding that 18.2 billion cubic meters of this volume were exported, which is an increase of 7.3 percent. ‘According to operational data for the 10 months of this year, 21.9 out of 27.2 million tons of extracted #oil was #exported. Compared to the same period last year, 18.2 out of the 38.4 bcm #gas produced with an increase of 7.3% was #exported,’ he . In 2021, Azerbaijan exported 27.1 million tons of oil worth $13.2 billion. The top five countries in terms of oil imports from Azerbaijan were Italy, Israel, Croatia, Germany, and Portugal. In addition, Azerbaijan produced 34.6 million tons of crude oil in 2021. The slight increase in oil production last year was primarily due to the gradual elimination of voluntary oil output cuts under the OPEC+deal.

Nigeria’s October Oil Production Increases Marginally, Hits 1.014m bpd – - Nigeria struggled to exceed the 1 million barrels per day oil production mark in October, a ‘feat’ it hadn’t achieved in the last two months. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) data obtained by THISDAY indicated that Nigeria drilled 1.014 million barrels per day for the month under review, exceeding production for August which was 972,394 bpd and September’s pegged at 937,766 bpd. In all, the country produced 31.449 million barrels of oil in October as opposed to 28.132 million in September and 30.144 million barrels in August. The month also saw the production of 6.692 million barrels volume of condensate, raising total production to 38.1 million barrels for last month. Bonny appeared to have resumed production, rising from 167,582 barrels in September to 1.616 million barrels for the month. Brass also rose from 172,814 barrels to 358,671 barrels in the month of October. Qua Iboe continued to hold forth with 4.984 million barrels as against 4.97 million in September, while Forcados increased output massively from 134,437 barrels to 2.519 million barrels for the month.

Suspected oil spill on the Whanganui River - Work is underway to contain a suspected diesel spill on the Whanganui River. Horizons Regional Council’s emergency management manager Ian Lowe said the spill was reported Thursday morning via the council’s pollution hotline and emergency management staff immediately went to the site in the lower reaches of the river to assess the situation. “We can see what appears to be diesel over a large area of water between the rivermouth and boat ramp,” Lowe said. The incident was reported by contractors at the North Mole site who suspected diesel coming past their site when they arrived this morning. At this point the source of the spill is unknown, Lowe said. “However, we can confirm it is not as a result of river management work underway for the Te Pūwaha port revitalisation project at the North Mole.” He said at this stage they did not believe the spill to be linked to any boats in the port either. “We are mobilising equipment and more staff from Palmerston North to assist with the response. This will include a boat to assess the extent of the spill and possible source.” Lowe said the first priority was to contain the spill and remove as much as possible from the awa. “We will put inflatable booms out to stop the diesel from spreading out further and use absorbent pads to soak up what we can.” He said there was an incoming tide which they would use to their advantage for containment of the spill. “While we will do our best, it’s unlikely that we will be able to absorb all the diesel and expect any elusive patches will evaporate over time. “People are likely to see lingering effects of the spill and Horizons will be monitoring the situation over the next few days alongside and under the leadership of hapū,” Lowe said. “Our compliance team are also working to determine the source of the spill.” Lowe said people in the port vicinity would see staff undertaking the work most of Thursday and local iwi have been notified of the event.

Global Oil Inventories Hit Lowest Level Since 2004 - The lowest oil inventories in developed economies since 2004 are set to combine with the upcoming EU embargo on Russian oil imports to further tighten the oil market and the already “exceptionally tight” diesel markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.“Oil markets remain finely balanced going into the winter months, with OECD stocks trending at the lowest levels since 2004,” the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) for November published today.“The approaching EU embargoes on Russian crude and oil product imports and a ban on maritime services will add further pressure on global oil balances, and, in particular, on already exceptionally tight diesel markets. A proposed oil price cap may help alleviate tensions, yet a myriad of uncertainties and logistical challenges remain,” said the international agency. According to the IEA, global observed inventories fell by 14.2 million barrels in September as OECD and non-OECD stocks plunged by 45.5 million barrels and 19.3 million barrels, respectively. The decline in stocks, however, was partially offset by a surge in stocks of oil on floating storage of 50.6 million barrels, the IEA said. OECD industry oil stocks fell by 8 million barrels, while government stocks drew by 37.4 million barrels in September. OECD total oil stocks fell below 4 billion barrels for the first time since 2004, per IEA estimates.Those low inventory levels and the embargo on EU imports of Russian crude oil and products as of December 5 and February 5, respectively, will disturb the currently finely balanced market, the agency says.However, the very tight diesel market and high prices will lead to additional demand destruction next year. The IEA raised its global oil demand growth estimate by nearly 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 2.1 million bpd for this year, but slightly cut the 2023 demand growth estimate to 1.6 million bpd from 1.7 million bpd growth expected in the October report.

Crude Demand Must Fall Two-Thirds For Climate Scenarios To Work -It is obvious that crude must decarbonize. But COP27 is a reminder that oil consumption must first fall if the world is to achieve net zero. Wood Mackenzie said that in its accelerated energy transition 1.5 °C scenario, demand must fall by two-thirds from 100 million bpd today to 35 million bpd in 2050. Crude oil’s centrality to the global economy has been reinforced in the energy crisis of 2022. Oil demand has recovered strongly from the Covid-induced dip and, despite an economic slowdown, could reach record highs next year. In the meantime, pressure on the upstream and refining sectors to decarbonize the crude oil value chain is mounting. Alan Gelder and Sushant Gupta of our Refining team took me through their latest analysis. The sector is responsible for one-third of global emissions. Around 70% of these are Scope 3, released into the atmosphere on combustion at the point of consumption, mainly in transportation, heating, or industry. The other 30%, Scope 1& 2, are split almost evenly between upstream production and refining. Emissions must start falling soon, and precipitously if the world is to get onto a 1.5 °C pathway. There is a broad range of carbon intensities across the numerous different crudes. Including the cost of carbon will change ‘traditional’ price differentials that today are determined mainly by the crude’s gravity (API) and sulfur content. For refiners, carbon intensity will not only change the economics of selecting crudes as feedstocks but how they tackle reducing emissions from refining. Most upstream emissions are produced by powering operations (70%); the rest comprise non-combustion emissions from methane losses, flaring gas, and venting CO2. Upstream carbon intensity for crudes ranges from 10 tons to 70 tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) per 1000 bbls of crude produced. Arab Light is at the low end, Brent roughly in the middle, and Basrah Heavy among the highest. Refining emissions intensities are a similar order of magnitude, from 20 tons to 100 tons of CO2e per 1000 bbls of crude processed, the range a function of crude feedstock and the configuration of the refinery processing it. More complex refineries have the higher processing capability to produce higher-value products so tend to produce more emissions. Likewise, sites with deep integration with chemicals are more energy-intensive and produce higher emissions. Product end-use emissions range from 250 to 450 tons of CO2e per 1000 bbls of crude. Refineries integrated with petrochemicals tend towards the lower end because plastics are not combusted on consumption.In Europe, refiners already pay a carbon price on a portion of emissions that arise from crude processing through the EU emissions trading scheme. As upstream carbon intensity becomes an independent, reported variable, the roll-out of carbon pricing in other fiscal regimes will lead to a widening of differentials between lower and higher emission-intensive crudes. The differentials will change with the level of the carbon price. Woodmac estimates that at $100/ton of CO2, the Brent-Dubai differential could double to $4/bbl, assuming the refiner pays all upstream and refinery processing emissions. Arab Light’s low upstream emissions are a significant advantage and its typical discount to Brent could be eliminated.

Exxon Mobil Makes First Oil Discovery In Angola In 20 Years - Over the past five years, the United States’ largest independent oil and gas company, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), has mostly focused its exploratory activities in South America. Last month, the oil major announced that it had made two new discoveries at the Sailfin-1 and Yarrow-1 wells in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana, potentially adding more barrels to one of the most closely watched new oil discoveries. ExxonMobil has now made more than 30 discoveries on the block since 2015, and has ramped up offshore development and production at a pace that far exceeds the industry average. In contrast, Exxon’s exploits in Africa have been few and far between, with its last discovery on the continent coming nearly two decades ago. But Exxon has now announced that it has, together with its partners, discovered hydrocarbons in Block 15 off Angola in the Bavuca South prospect. This was the block’s 18th discovery, but the first since 2003. According to Exxon, the Valaris DS-9 drillship drilled the Bavuca South-1 well 365 km northwest from the coast at Luanda in 1,100 m (3,608 ft) of water, encountering 30 m (98 ft) of good-quality, hydrocarbon-bearing sandstone. Exxon owns a 36% interest in the block, with BP Exploration Angola (24%), ENI Angola Exploration (18%), Equinor Angola Block 15 (12%) and Sonangol P&P(10%) being its partners.The last big fossil fuel discovery on the continent dates back to 2010 after Texas-based Anadarko Corp. (now a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum Corp.) and Italian energy giant Eni S.p.A. (NYSE: E) discovered approximately 180 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, equivalent to ~29 billion barrels of oil, in Mozambique’s supergiant offshore basin of Rovuma, immediately catapulting the South African nation to a potential global LNG superpower. As you might expect, there was a stampede by oil and gas majors including ExxonMobil,TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE), Shell (NYSE: SHEL), and China National Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: SNP)) coming in to stake their claims. Unfortunately, widespread terrorism and the growing menace of piracy have constantly held back progress with Mozambique fast joining the league of African nations grappling with a ‘resource curse.’ The security crisis in the northern region of Cabo Delgado had displaced hundreds of thousands of people, created a humanitarian crisis and even forced TotalEnergies to declare force majeure on its massive natural gas investment in the country.But the tides have now turned, and Mozambique has managed to get its act together just in time. The country is nowpoised to ship its first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) overseas in November at a time when Europe is desperately trying to cut energy ties with Russia. Experts have estimated that Mozambique can earn in excess of $100B from its natural gas assets over the next 30 years.

China looks to ocean resources for energy needs, international cooperation - Offshore areas of China will become a major energy growth driver in the country for years to come, especially in the oil and gas sector, in which its increment will come mostly from offshore resources in China, analysts said. China's offshore crude increment last year accounted for a record high of more than 80 percent of the country's total growth volume, while the exploitation of offshore natural gas resources is also steadily advancing toward ultra-deep waters, said the Energy Economics Institute under the China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), the country's largest offshore driller. The institute believes that China's offshore oil and gas output will continue increasing this year. Offshore crude output will rise 5.4 percent to 57.6 million metric tons, accounting for around 80 percent of the country's total crude increment. Offshore natural gas production will exceed 20 billion cubic meters, up 6.7 percent year-on-year and making up around 12 percent of the country's gas increment, it said. CNOOC expects its oil and gas production to rise more than 6 percent each year during the 2022-24 period, while its continuous upstream investment and production commitment will also play a critical role in China's energy supply security, Li said. CNOOC accounted for more than half of China's total oil and gas output growth in 2021, while the driller is also seeking to use its engineering prowess to become a major player in offshore wind power projects, she said. The company said earlier that it would further take advantage of the company's offshore advantages while laying out the new energy industry to enhance its position as the country's top offshore oil and gas driller. CNOOC's offshore oil and gas production projects are ranked tops in the world, according to the China Offshore Energy Report drafted by the institute this year.

India Is Bright Spot for World Oil Demand - Petroleum demand in the world’s third-largest oil consumer has been growing faster than anywhere else in 2022, rising by more than 400,000 barrels a day. That’s equivalent to more than 20% of the total global increase. The country’s vigorous appetite for oil was clear early in the year, but what’s impressive is that it has remained robust in recent months just as consumption growth slowed elsewhere. Three factors help to explain that resilience. First, a fast-growing economy: India is set to post the second-strongest expansion among the Group of 20 this year, behind only oil-rich Saudi Arabia and well ahead of China. Second, New Delhi has capped retail fuel prices, insulating the public from the impact of $100-plus oil on the wholesale market. And third, the government has turned to Russia for petroleum, benefiting from the discounts offered by Moscow — at times as much as $20 a barrel — to keep its oil sales flowing. If current trends continue, India’s consumption will average at least 5.2 million barrels a day in 2022, surpassing the previous annual record, which was set in 2019 before the onset of the pandemic at 5 million barrels a day. To put that into context, current demand tops that of Germany, France and the UK combined. And there’s no peak in sight. Although Indian oil-use growth will slow next year, it’s likely to remain steep by historical standards at 200,000 barrels a day, with the country consuming an average of 5.4 million barrels a day. But there are risks. While current momentum suggests demand will remain healthy, the outlook is clouded by China’s economic slowdown and interest-rate hikes by India’s central bank in an effort to shore up the rupee.

OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Growth Estimates Yet Again - Significant global economic uncertainties in the coming months made OPEC cut on Monday its estimate of global oil demand growth for this year and next, in the fifth reduction of consumption forecasts since April.OPEC revised down each of its 2022 and 2023 oil demand growth forecasts by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from last month’s estimates due to China’s still-strict Covid policy and economic challenges in Europe, the organization said in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) out on Monday. “The significant uncertainty regarding the global economy, accompanied by fears of a global recession contributes to the downside risk for lowering global oil demand growth. In addition, China’s strict adherence to the ‘zero COVID-19 policy’ adds to this uncertainty, making the country’s recovery path even more unpredictable,” OPEC said. In October, a week after announcing a 2-million-bpd headline cut to its collective oil production target, OPEC slashed its global oil demand growth estimates for both 2022 and 2023. Those estimates are now further revised down by 100,000 bpd each.OPEC now sees global oil demand growth at 2.5 million bpd in 2022 after slashing the fourth-quarter demand projections by nearly 400,000 bpd.Global oil demand is projected to average 99.6 million bpd this year, with developed economies in the Americas seeing the highest rise in demand, led by the U.S. on the back of recovering gasoline and diesel demand, the cartel said. Light distillates are also projected to support demand growth this year, OPEC added.For 2023, OPEC now sees oil demand growth at 2.2 million bpd, down by 100,000 bpd from the growth expected in the October report. World oil demand is set to average 101.8 million bpd, “supported by expected geopolitical improvements and the containment of COVID-19 in China,” according to OPEC. Next year, U.S. demand is expected to exceed 2019 levels, thanks to a recovery in transportation fuels and light distillate demand. However, OECD Europe and the Asia Pacific are not expected to rise above 2019 consumption levels, the cartel said.“While risks are skewed to the downside, there exists some upside potential for the global economic growth forecast. This may come from a variety of sources. Predominantly, inflation could be positively impacted by any resolution of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, allowing for less hawkish monetary policies,” OPEC noted.

OPEC Oil Production Fell In October As Members Missed Targets - OPEC’s crude oil production dropped by 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October compared to the previous month after the cartel and the wider OPEC+ group reversed the small output increase in September.The crude oil production of all 13 OPEC members, including those exempt from the OPEC+ pact - Venezuela, Iran, and Libya - averaged 29.49 million bpd in October, according to secondary sources in the organization’s closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published on Monday.Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC and its top producer, saw its production decline by 149,000 bpd to average 10.838 million bpd last month, as OPEC+ decided in early September to reverse a 100,000 bpd increase in target oil production, which was only intended for the month of September. Saudi Arabia’s production dropped the most among OPEC members and was below the targeted production level of 11.004 million bpd per the schedule the OPEC+ meeting had adopted. The Kingdom self-reported higher production for October than secondary sources’ estimates, at 10.957 million bpd, down by 84,000 bpd compared to September.Production in Angola saw the second-steepest drop in OPEC producers in October, but it wasn’t the result of a conscious reduction since the African producer has been lagging behind its quota for many months. Angola’s crude oil production fell by 78,000 bpd to 1.067 million bpd in October, according to OPEC’s secondary sources. Angola’s target, however, is much higher, at 1.525 million bpd, meaning that the country was nearly 500,000 bpd below target. Over the coming months, OPEC’s production is set to decline further after the OPEC+ alliance decided to reduce its collective target by 2 million bpd for November. Although the actual cut is expected to be around half that number, at 1.1 million bpd, it still is the biggest cut since the record production reduction announced in April 2020 when oil demand plunged at the start of the pandemic.

 USA EIA Raises Oil Price Forecast -The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly raised its Brent oil price forecast for both 2022 and 2023, the organization’s latest short term energy outlook (STEO) has revealed. The EIA now sees the Brent crude oil spot price averaging $102.13 per barrel this year and $95.33 per barrel next year, according to its November STEO. In its October STEO, the EIA projected that the Brent spot average would come in at $102.09 per barrel in 2022 and $94.58 per barrel in 2023. Despite the increase in the EIA’s Brent forecast values in November, the figures are still down on September’s projections. In its September STEO, the EIA expected the Brent spot average to hit $104.21 per barrel this year and $96.91 per barrel next year. “Growth in OPEC and non-OPEC oil production, most notably production in the United States, keeps the Brent crude oil price in our forecast lower on an annual average basis in 2023 than in 2022,” the EIA noted in its latest STEO. “However, we expect the Brent crude oil price will begin rising in 2H23,” the EIA added in the STEO. In its November STEO, the EIA warned that weakening global economic conditions, which it said could limit oil demand growth, “create the potential for oil prices to end up lower than our forecast”. The organization also noted that higher than forecast oil prices could stem from supply disruptions resulting from the EU’s impending bans on the seaborne import of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia. The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 11.83 million barrels per day in 2022, before rising to 12.31 million barrels per day in 2023, according to its November STEO. In its October STEO, the EIA expected U.S. crude oil output to come in at 11.75 million barrels per day in 2022 and 12.36 million barrels per day in 2023. U.S. crude oil production was 11.25 million barrels per day in 2021, the EIA highlighted in its latest STEO.

Oil prices fall $1 on surging Covid cases in China, firmer US dollar - Oil prices fell on Monday, dragged down by a firmer US dollar while surging coronavirus cases in China dashed hopes of a swift reopening of the economy for the world's biggest crude importer. Brent crude futures were down $1.01, or 1.1%, at $94.98 a barrel by 1030 GMT after gaining 1.1% on Friday. WTI crude futures fell $1.11, or 1.3%, to $87.85 after advancing 2.9% on Friday. "US dollar strength appears to be weighing on oil and the broader commodities complex this afternoon," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. "There probably is also an element where the market got a bit ahead of itself on Friday following an easing in China's Covid-related quarantine measures." Commodities prices rallied on Friday after China's National Health Commission adjusted its Covid prevention and control measures to shorten quarantine times for close contacts of cases and inbound travelers. But Covid-19 cases climbed in China over the weekend, with Beijing and other big cities on Monday reporting record infections. China's demand for oil from top exporter Saudi Arabia also remained weak, with several refiners having asked to lift less crude in December. Separately, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday said that India can continue buying as much Russian oil as it wants, including at prices above a G7-imposed price cap mechanism, if it steers clear of Western insurance, finance and maritime services bound by the cap. Also weighing on oil was dollar strength after comments from US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said on Sunday that the Fed could consider slowing the pace of rate increases at its next meeting, but that should not be seen as a softening in its commitment to lower inflation. "This leans towards the sticky inflation or recession narrative, which is negative for oil and other risk markets,"

Crudes Decline sharply on Russian Oil Exports, Firmer USD - West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange fell 3% or more on Monday. The losses came on a stronger U.S. dollar index and reports suggesting Russian crude oil exports are holding steady ahead of a European embargo on seaborne oil shipments from Russian ports, with Asian buyers lifting increased volumes of displaced Russian oil. Russian crude oil exports rose to 3.25 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first two weeks of November, which is roughly the same rate Russia exported in the weeks prior to President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Two-thirds of the crude loaded at Russian ports are now heading to Asian markets, according to private data published this morning, with India and China emerging as top buyers of Russian oil followed by Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. In comparison, Russia's seaborne oil exports to European countries dropped to just 700,000 bpd in the four-week period ending Friday, Nov. 11. Additionally, crude loadings out of Russian ports that are yet to show their destination rose to a record 2.39 million bpd on a four-week average basis. This might suggest the so called "shadow trade" in Russian crude tankers is gaining traction ahead of a European embargo on Russian oil flow that is set to take effect Dec. 5. Earlier this month, reports emerged suggesting G7 countries reached an agreement to enforce a fixed price on Russian oil exports but only at the point of first sale on land, meaning the resale of the same oil at sea won't be subject to the regulation. The measure will also bar European tankers from hauling Russian crude and prohibit the provision of insurance, brokerage and other maritime services unless oil loaded to those vessels was purchased at a price below a yet-to-be-agreed-upon cap. So far this year, Russian crude production held steady at 10.86 million bpd, according to OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report released this morning, which is 0.5% higher compared to 2021 levels. Further details of the report showed Saudi Arabia's oil production slid 149,000 bpd last month to 10.838 million bpd, the kingdom's lowest output rate since July, and below its 11.004 million bpd production quota agreed to on Sept. 5. OPEC's oil production dropped by 210,000 bpd to a three-month low 29.494 million bpd. OPEC downgraded worldwide oil consumption by 100,000 bpd this year for annual growth of 2.5 million bpd. Oil demand in countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is estimated to increase by around 1.3 million bpd, while non-OECD oil demand is seen growing by about 1.3 million bpd. Global oil demand in the third and fourth quarters was revised lower due to China's zero-COVID policy along with geopolitical uncertainties in Europe. For 2023, global oil demand growth forecast was also revised down by 100,000 bpd from the previous assessment to now stand at 2.2 million bpd. OECD oil demand growth is expected to grow by 300,000 bpd and the non-OECD by 1.9 million bpd. In outside markets, U.S. dollar index extended gains into afternoon trading Monday, strengthening 3.5% against a basket of foreign currencies to settle at 106.531, further pressuring front-month WTI. NYMEX WTI for December delivery declined $3.09 per barrel (bbl) to $85.87 per bbl, and international crude benchmark ICE Brent fell to $93.14 bbl, down $2.85 on the session. NYMEX December RBOB futures declined 8.11 cents to $2.5285 per gallon, and December ULSD futures retreated 1.13 cents to $3.5440 per gallon.

Monday's Decline Was Driven Largely by a Stronger Dollar - WTI oil prices dropped 3.7% to a session-low $85.65 a barrel, while Brent dropped 3.4% to session low of $92.73. Monday's decline was driven largely by a stronger dollar and a return of worries about inflation and a drop in oil demand as the number of coronavirus cases in China continue to surge. Data last week showed a slight easing of inflationary price-pressures in October that quickly triggered risk appetite in financial markets. But several Fed officials quickly jumped in to say it's way too soon to claim any victory over inflation. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next, citing economic headwinds. December WTI lost $3.09 per barrel, or 3.47% to $85.87, the largest one day dollar and percentage decline since Friday, Oct. 14, 2022, snapping a two session winning streak. January delivery lost $2.85 per barrel, or 2.97% to $93.14, its largest one day dollar and percentage decline since Friday, Oct. 14, 2022. RBOB Gasoline for December delivery lost 8.11 cents per gallon, or 3.11% to $2.5285, while December heating oil fell 1.13 cents per gallon, or 0.32% to $3.5440. OPEC cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth for a fifth time since April and also cut next year's figure, citing increasing economic challenges including high inflation and rising interest rates. In its monthly report, OPEC estimated that oil demand in 2022 will increase by 2.55 million bpd or 2.6%, down 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast. OPEC said "The world economy has entered a period of significant uncertainty and rising challenges in the fourth quarter of 2022." Next year, OPEC expects oil demand to increase by 2.24 million bpd, also 100,000 bpd lower than previously forecast. Despite commenting on the rising challenges, OPEC left its 2022 and 2023 global economic growth forecasts steady and said while risks were skewed to the downside, there was also upside potential. OPEC said that in the second and third quarters of this year, global oil supply outpaced total oil demand by 200,000 bpd and 1.1 million bpd, respectively, having been in a deficit of 300,000 bpd in the first quarter. The report said that OPEC output fell by 210,000 bpd in October to 29.49 million bpd, more than the pledged OPEC+ reduction, led by a 149,000 bpd cut by Saudi Arabia. Genscape reported that crude oil stocks held in Cushing, Oklahoma as of Friday, November 11th fell by 1,357,864 barrels on the week and by 392,043 barrels from Tuesday, November 8th to 28,766,653 barrels. European gasoline flows to West Africa are estimated to be starting November at a slower pace, after reaching an eight-month high in October. Total November export volumes across the U.S. and West Africa arbitrage routes are tracking at 575,000 tons so far. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 392,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 18th, increasing available refining capacity by 171,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 267,000 bpd in the week ending November 25th.

Oil Prices Tumble As Demand Concerns Weigh -- Oil prices fell around 2 percent on Tuesday as investors fretted about a weakening demand outlook.Benchmark Brent crude futures fell 1.7 percent to $91.59 a barrel while WTI crude futures were down 2.1 percent at $84.09.OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 100,000 barrels a day to 2.55 million barrels per day, citing mounting economic challenges including high inflation and rising interest rates.China's factory output grew more slowly than expected in October, retail sales unexpectedly fell for the first time since May and property investment saw its biggest drop in 32 months, suggesting the world's second-largest economy is losing momentum as a result of protracted COVID-19 curbs and a property downturn.Elsewhere, data showed Japan's economy unexpectedly shrank for the first time in a year in the third quarter.Surging coronavirus cases in China also dashed hopes of a swift reopening of the world's second-largest economy.The southern Chinese city of Guangzhou has the biggest caseload, with new daily infections of Covid-19 exceeding 5,000 for the first time and fuelling speculation that localised lockdowns could widen.

Oil Futures Jump on Reports Russian Missiles Strike Poland -- West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange reversed losses and advanced more than 1% on Tuesday following unconfirmed reports Russian missiles crossed into Poland overnight, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, killing two people in a town near the Ukrainian border. The attack, if confirmed, could trigger NATO's Article 5 provision, calling on all of the treaty's members to attack Russia in response to an unprovoked aggression. According to Article 5, an attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all allies. It is not immediately clear if the two rockets that landed in the border town of Przewodów was a result of Russia's mass bombardment of Ukrainian cities earlier today, with over 100 rockets launched, or was a deliberate attack on Poland itself. Poland's Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has convened the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs "as a matter of urgency," government spokesman Piotr Müller confirmed, with local media outlets claiming this is likely the result of the explosions on its eastern border. Russia's Ministry of Defense moments ago claimed reports of Russian missiles landing in Poland are a "deliberate provocation" from Polish media. The Ministry added, "No strikes were made against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian weapons. The fragments published in a hot pursuit by the Polish media from the scene in the village of Przewodow have nothing to do with Russian weapons." The situation remains fluid. Earlier this morning, the oil complex came under selling pressures after International Energy Agency revised lower its demand expectations for the remainder of the year, citing, in part, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. For refined products, in particular, demand growth is forecasted to ease from 1.5 million bpd in 2021 to 400,000 bpd in 2022 before posting a small decline in 2023 under the weight of persistently high prices and slowing economies. The Paris-based agency estimates oil flow from Russian ports rose by 165,000 bpd in October to 7.7 million bpd as shipments to the European Union, China, and India held up well into last month. At settlement, NYMEX WTI for December delivery advanced $1.05 bbl to $86.92 bbl, and international crude benchmark ICE Brent rallied to $93.86 bbl, up $0.72. NYMEX December RBOB futures declined 1.24 cents to $2.5161 gallon, and December ULSD futures advanced 9.73 cents to $3.6413 gallon.

Oil prices settle higher amid supply disruption on Druzhba pipeline - Oil prices rose on Tuesday and settled higher after news that oil supply to Hungary via the Druzhba oil pipeline has been temporarily suspended due to a fall in pressure. Brent crude futures rose 72 cents to settle at $93.86 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.05 to $86.92. Russia's state-owned pipeline monopoly Transneft has been notified by Ukraine of the pipeline disruption, the RIA news agency quoted Transneft as saying on Tuesday. The United States said it was investigating unconfirmed reports that stray Russian missiles caused an explosion that killed two people in a Polish village near the border with Ukraine. A European Union ban on seaborne Russian crude, set to start on Dec. 5, means that 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) must be replaced, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. "When you look at what we saw from the IEA about global oil inventories, that should be very bullish," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Adding support to oil prices, U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in October, more evidence inflation was starting to ease, which could allow the Federal Reserve to slow its aggressive interest rate hikes. Wall Street indexes rose after the data, while the U.S. dollar index fell, making greenback-denominated oil less expensive for other currency holders. "The inflation data was positive in a way. Stocks took off from that and it looks like we're getting dragged higher now," "We're still in that inverse dollar effect here." The IEA forecast that a gloomy economic outlook will put global oil use on track to contract by nearly a quarter million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2022 year on year, with demand growth slowing to 1.6 million bpd in 2023 from 2.1 million bpd this year. U.S. crude stocks fell by about 5.8 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 11, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories rose by about 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by about 850,000 barrels. [API/S] U.S. government data on inventories is due Wednesday. In China, COVID cases rose further, including in the capital Beijing, and the country's factory output growth slowed. Investment bank JPMorgan cut its quarterly and full-year forecasts for economic growth in China. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its 2022 global oil demand growth forecast for a fifth time since April, citing mounting economic challenges including high inflation and rising interest rates.

Crude Prices Jump After Israeli Tanker Hit By Iranian Drone Off Oman Coast - Crude prices are higher Wednesday morning after a bomb-carrying drone on Tuesday evening struck an oil tanker owned by an Israeli billionaire, The Associated Press reported.The Liberian-flagged oil tanker Pacific Zircon was approximately 150 miles off the Omani coast at 730 pm local time when a "projectile" hit the vessel, a Mideast-based defense official told AP. AP said the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations was notified about the attack and is monitoring shipping lanes in the region. "We are aware of an incident and it's being investigated at this time," UKMTO said. Also, the commander of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, Timothy Hawkins, was briefed on the incident, according to Reuters. Brent crude prices, which were down before the news, jumped and traded above $94 a barrel.In a statement, Pacific Zircon's owner Eastern Pacific Shipping, which Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer owns, said the vessel was hauling diesel when it was "hit by a projectile ... there were no reports of injuries or pollution." "All crew are safe and accounted for. There is some minor damage to the vessel's hull but no spillage of cargo or water ingress," the Singapore- based Eastern Pacific said. Bloomberg cited a report via the Israeli Public Broadcasting Company (KAN) that said unidentified Israeli officials pointed the finger at Iran for the drone attack. Tracking data shows the vessel is off the Omani coast.

WTI Extends Losses Despite Crude Draw As Product Stocks Build - Despite a surprisingly large crude draw, oil prices are lower this morning as a pipeline carrying Russian oil to Europe was reported to have restarted after being offline during a turbulent 24 hours.Prices dropped as a section of the Druzhba oil pipeline, Europe’s largest crude oil conduit, was reported to have restarted after a disruption to its power supply.Oil has experienced a renewed bout of volatility amidst a renewed injection of geopolitical risk. An oil tanker linked to an Israeli billionaire was hit by a projectile about 150 miles (241 kilometers) off the coast of Oman, according to a statement from its owner. Yesterday, a rocket hit a Polish village near the Ukrainian border. The incident was unlikely to have been an intentional attack, the Polish president said.“Geopolitical risk premia only hold if they trigger supply disruptions,” An "uptick in geopolitical risk" helped drive oil prices higher late Tuesday, following news of a missile strike in Poland, said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in a market update.With "crude oil at the epicentre of Eastern European risk oil," traders had little choice but to "graduate what-if scenarios hedging the potential risk to global oil supplies" if a smouldering powder keg ignites, he said.Additionally, prices fell as China's COVID-19 cases continue to rise, suggesting more lockdowns ahead of the holiday and flu season API:

• Crude -5.835mm (-400k exp)
• Cushing -842k
• Gasoline +1.69mm (+300k)
• Distillates +850k (-500k exp)

DOE:

• Crude -5.4mm - biggest draw since August
• Cushing -1.62mm - biggest draw since May
• Gasoline +2.21mm - biggest build since July
• Distillates +1.12mm - biggest build since Sept

Official EIA data confirmed last night's big crude draw reported by API (-5.40mm barrels) and on the products side the official data showed larger than expected builds... Graphics Source: Bloomberg Adding the 4.1mm drain from SPR (now at its lowest since March 1984)... ...,overall crude stocks fall by almost 10mm barrels...

U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles Fell by 5.4 Million Barrels - U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 5.4 million barrels, to 435.4 million barrels for the week ending November 11, as refinery activity accelerated, according to the Wednesday release by the Energy Information Administration. Analysts were expecting a decline of 500,000 barrels. The surprising decline in crude inventories was caused by the significant decline in U.S. crude oil imports. Oil futures were trading lower as Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted and rising COVID-19 cases in China weighed on sentiment however, loses were slightly reduced after the release of the EIA report. WTI December delivery lost $1.33 per barrel, or 1.53% to $85.59. This is the lowest settlement for a front month contract since October 25. Brent Crude for January delivery lost $1.00 per barrel, or 1.07% to $92.86, the lowest settlement for a front month contract since November 9. RBOB Gasoline for December delivery lost 0.81 cent per gallon, or 0.32% to $2.5080; down for three consecutive sessions and down 10.16 cents or 3.89% over the last three sessions. ULSD for December delivery lost 2.77 cents per gallon, or 0.76% to $3.6136, the largest one day dollar and percentage decline since Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022. ULSD was down seven of the past eight sessions At the moment, various geopolitical situations are influencing oil markets, among which include increased and persistent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, weak Chinese The EIA said U.S. commercial crude oil imports fell by 895,000 bpd in the latest week to 5.6 million bpd, the lowest level since May 2021. In the U.S. Gulf Coast region, crude oil imports fell by 257,000 bpd last week to 879,000 bpd, the lowest level since December 2021. U.S. crude stocks in the SPR fell by 5.4 million barrels to 435.4 million barrels, the lowest level since March 1984.OPEC Secretary General, Haitham al-Ghais, said that the organization is ready to intervene for the benefit of oil markets. He also said that OPEC is aware, cautious and monitoring economic developments worldwide.Hungarian Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, said Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary have restarted, adding that the pipeline was still operating with low pressure after a temporary shutdown on Tuesday. Oil supply to parts of Eastern and Central Europe via a section of the Druzhba pipeline were temporarily suspended on Tuesday for technical reasons. Barclays forecast Brent oil prices in the fourth quarter at $93/barrel and WTI prices at $86/barrel. It sees Brent oil prices and WTI prices at $92/barrel and $86/barrel in the first quarter of 2023, respectively and sees Brent oil prices at $103/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023 and WTI prices at $99/barrel. Petro-Logistics said crude oil exports by OPEC have fallen significantly so far this month, suggesting members are delivering on their share of the output cut agreed by the group and its allies.

Oil falls amid easing geopolitical tensions, China's Covid concerns -Oil prices fell for a second day in early Asian trade on Thursday as concerns over geopoliticaltensions eased and rising numbers of Covid-19 cases in China added to demand worries in the world's largest crude importer. Brent crude futures dropped by 62 cents, or 0.7 per cent,to $92.24 a barrel by 0110GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8 per cent,to $84.94 a barrel. Brent dropped by 1.1 per cent andWTI declined by 1.5 per cent on Wednesday axer Russian oil shipments via theDruzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. "Crude oil fell axer NATOcleared Russia's missile attack on Poland, while demand concerns (are) back to trader's focus amid ongoing China's Covid curbs and gloomy global economic outlooks," Poland and military alliance NATOsaid on Wednesday that a missile which crashed inside Poland was probably a stray fired by Ukraine's air defences and not a Russian strike, easing fears of the war between Russian andUkraine spilling across the border. Oil prices eased despite a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil stockpiles in theUnited States, added Teng. Crude stocks in theUS,the world's biggest oil consumer, fell by 5.4 million barrels in the week endedNov. 11 to 435.4 million barrels,the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 440,000- barrel drop. However, inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels both rose by more than expectations. More oil is set to flow to theUS as TC Energy lixed a force majeure on its 622,000-barrel-per-day Keystone pipeline that supplies the Midwest andGulf Coast that had reduced shipments by 7 per cent. Sustained concerns of demand weakness in China are also "keeping markets grounded," as it continues to report more Covid cases in major cities. "With Covid cases in China continuing to rise, especially as we move towards flu season,traders are lex with little option to recalibrate positions reflecting the possibility of more lockdowns in heavily populated centers that hurt oil demand exponentially more than other areas of the economy," China's Covid caseload is small compared with the rest of the world, but it maintains stringent policies to quash out cases before they further spread. TheNationalHealth Commission reported 23,276 new Covid-19 infections onNov. 16, of which over 20,000 were asymptomatic

WTI Slides 4% on Fed's Hawkish Rhetoric, USD Gains (DTN) -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Brent contract on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Thursday's session sharply lower, with West Texas Intermediate sliding below $82 barrel (bbl) on the spot continuation chart as investors recalibrated bets for a deeper recession next year after Fed officials signaled interest rates could go much higher than currently priced in by markets. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Thursday the central bank might need to raise the federal funds rate to 5% to 7% range in order to bring down inflation. The federal funds rate currently stand between 3.75% and 4%. "The policy rate is not even yet in a zone that might be considered sufficiently restrictive. Monetary tightening has had limited effect on prices so far," he added. For context, officials in September projected rates increasing to around 4.6% in 2023. Those projections will be updated at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Dec. 13-14. Bullard was not the only Federal Reserve official who struck a hawkish tone this week. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday in his view the central bank's policy is barely restrictive, adding, "We have a long way to go in terms of raising interest rates." Waller further added it was too soon to conclude that inflation had peaked or that the central bank would be able to end its rate increases early next year. He pointed to the summer months last year when inflation pressures appeared to be easing but later reaccelerated. Inflation in October moderated to 0.4% from 0.6% monthly gain seen over the previous month, which has brought an annualized increase in consumer prices to 7.7%. U.S. retail sales, meanwhile, surprised in October with a 1.3% gain after an unchanged reading in September, according to data from Commerce Department. Some economists suggest the jump in October retail sales could be a sign of an early holiday shopping season. Underlying Thursday's losses in the oil complex are also reports of a partial return of Russian oil flows through Druzhba network -- a key pipeline that delivers Russian oil to landlocked countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Hungary's oil and gas company MOL confirmed that oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline resumed on Wednesday afternoon after a brief power cut on the Ukrainian side. On Tuesday, Ukraine notified European partners that it had suspended oil pumping via Druzhba pipeline in direction of Hungary due to an unidentified technical reason. In financial markets, the U.S. Dollar Index regained ground against a basket of foreign currencies to settle at 106.610 as investors digest recent comments from Fed officials that point to more rate hikes in coming months. NYMEX December West Texas Intermediate futures ended the session $3.95 lower at $81.64 bbl, and January Brent futures on ICE declined $3.08 to $89.78 bbl. December NYMEX RBOB futures fell 5.33 cents to $2.4547 gallon, with December ULSD futures 8.88 cents lower at $3.5248 gallon.

WTI at 2-Month Low as Traders See Hawkish Fed, Recession Risk - Oil futures moved mixed in early trade Friday, with all petroleum contracts heading for weekly losses as investors reprice the risk of a deeper recession next year amid increasingly hawkish central banks. International crude benchmark Brent contract fell below $90 barrel (bbl) for the first time in six weeks and West Texas Intermediate is trading at the lowest level since September after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recession alone might not be enough to bring down consumer prices. "Interest rates remain the most effective tool for shaping our policy stance. We expect to raise them further to the levels needed to ensure that inflation returns to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner," Lagarde furthered. Markets broadly expect the ECB will increase its key interest rate by 0.5% next month to 2% after lifting the benchmark rate by 0.75% at its two previous meetings. In the United States, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard sent shockwaves through markets on Thursday after he suggested the federal funds rate might go as high as 7% to tame inflation. The Federal Reserve is currently targeting the key overnight borrowing rate between 3.75% and 4%. "Monetary tightening so far has had a limited effect on prices. Based on this analysis, rates must stand at the minimum of 5% and 5.25%. That would at least get us in the (restrictive) zone," said Bullard. In September, central bank officials projected the federal funds rate rising to around 4.6% in 2023, with the projection almost certainly to be updated at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 13-14. Current market consensus sees a 0.5% rate hike in December, but a higher terminal rate at some point next year and a greater risk to the economic outlook. Bloomberg poll shows 100% of economists expect some sort of recession next year whether it is a mild or a severe one. Geopolitical uncertainty tied to ongoing fighting in Ukraine lifted prices earlier this week after reports emerged suggesting Russian oil flows through Druzhba pipeline were halted due to an unidentified "technical reason." The Druzhba pipeline network is a key conduit that delivers Russian oil to landlocked countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In financial markets, the U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.2% against a basket of foreign currencies to trade near 106.560 as investors continued to reprice risk of recession next year. NYMEX December West Texas Intermediate futures is down more than $1.50 near $80 bbl, and January Brent futures on ICE declined a $1.60 to near $88.15 bbl. December RBOB futures on NYMEX were down more than $0.01 to $2.4425 gallon, with December ULSD futures $0.022 lower at $3.5028 gallon.

Oil Slides 2%, Posts Second Weekly Decline as Supply Fears Recede (Reuters) -Oil dropped by about 2% on Friday, logging a second weekly decline, due to concern about weakened demand in China and further increases to U.S. interest rates. Brent crude settled at $87.62 a barrel, falling $2.16, or 2.4%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $80.08 a barrel, losing $1.56, or 1.9%. Both benchmarks posted weekly losses, with Brent down about 9% and WTI roughly 10%. A stronger U.S. dollar, which makes oil more expensive to non-American buyers, pushed down crude prices. The market structure of both oil benchmarks shifted in ways that reflect dwindling supply concerns. Crude came close to record highs earlier this year as Russia's invasion of Ukraine added to those worries. In addition, the front-month futures contract soared to a gigantic premium over later-dated contracts, a signal that people were worried about the immediate availability of oil and were willing to pay handsomely to secure supply. Those supply concerns are waning. The current WTI contract is now trading at a discount to the second month, a structure known as contango, for the first time since 2021, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. This condition will also benefit those looking to put more oil in inventories for later, especially with stocks still at low levels. "The deeper the contango, the more likely the market will put those barrels in storage," Brent was still in the opposite structure, backwardation, though the premium of nearby Brent over barrels loading in six months fell as low as $3 a barrel, the lowest since April. China, which sources say is looking to slow crude imports from some sources, has seen a rise in COVID-19 cases while hopes for less aggressive U.S. rate hikes have been dented by remarks from some Federal Reserve officials. "The situation in China with COVID continues to haunt this market," "So much optimism gets priced in to the market as soon as they try to say that they're going to reopen, but then the reality on the ground is just completely opposite of that hopeful analysis." As the European Union's ban on Russian crude looms on Dec. 5, the prospect of more barrels from Russia pressuring the spot crude oil market also weighed on futures prices. Recession concerns have dominated this week even with a tightening of supply by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+. "On the demand side, there are concerns about an economic slowdown," . "The path of least resistance seems skewed to the downside." The Fed is expected to raise rates by a smaller 50 basis points (bps) at its Dec. 13-14 policy meeting after four consecutive hikes of 75 bps, a Reuters poll showed.

Oil Slumps 10% This Week as Oversupply Fears Send Bulls to Exits - Oil dropped the most in a week since April as the full weight of languishing Chinese demand and more economic tightening radically shifted the market’s sentiment. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.9% to settle just over $80 a barrel. US futures fell 10% this week, the most since Biden ordered a historic discharge of crude from the Strategic Reserves in April. Swelling Covid cases in China and aggressive monetary tightening by central banks have combined to erase all the gains earned last month when OPEC and its partners slashed production by 2 million barrels a day. Pullbacks were evident along most of the oil-trading complex. On Friday, the US prompt-spread flipped into contango, a structure that signals oversupply, for the first time since last year. Meanwhile, a deteriorating market for physical barrels has also weighed on prices as demand for winter-delivery cargoes has weakened. The collapsing gauges of market health sent bulls running for the exits. Hedge funds slashed bullish bets for Brent crude the most in four months. Money managers’ net-long positions on the international benchmark fell around 30,000 contracts, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released Friday. Crude is trading below several key moving averages, sparking so-called technical-based selling. A further collapse in the market’s structure on Friday added to the selling. WTI for December delivery lost $1.56 to settle at $80.08 a barrel in New York. Brent for January fell $2.16 to settle at $87.62 a barrel. Coronavirus cases in China have climbed to near their highest level of the pandemic, as authorities signal they’re preparing for even more infections. The increases will likely prove a test for any loosening of the country’s Covid rules.

 USA Lays Blame for Tanker Attack -U.S. Central Command has stated that an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle conducted a one-way attack against the Pacific Zircon tanker. Exploitation of the debris that hit the vessel reveals that it was a Shahed-series one-way attack drone, U.S. CentCom noted, adding that a multilateral operation led by the British Royal Navy’s HMS Lancaster - including two U.S. Navy vessels, guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans (DDG 68), patrol coastal ship USS Chinook (PC 9), and a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon patrol craft - responded to the scene. “This unmanned aerial vehicle attack against a civilian vessel in this critical maritime strait demonstrates, once again, the destabilizing nature of Iranian malign activity in the region” General Michael ‘Erik’ Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, said in a government statement. In a statement posted on the White House website, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said, “upon review of the available information, we are confident that Iran likely conducted this attack using a UAV, a lethal capability it is increasingly employing directly and via its proxies throughout the Middle East and proliferating to Russia for use in Ukraine.” “There is no justification for this attack, which is the latest in a pattern of such actions and broader destabilizing activities. This action further threatens freedom of navigation through this crucial waterway, international shipping and commerce, and the lives of those on the vessels involved,” he added in the statement. “As President Biden emphasized during his visit to the Middle East region, the United States is committed to supporting the free flow of commerce through its vital waterways,” Sullivan continued. In the wake of the MV Pacific Zircon incident, Aljazeera reported that Iran’s Nournews, which Aljazeera highlighted is affiliated with the country’s top security body, blamed Israel for the attack. An Israeli official speaking anonymously to Reuters said that Iran was behind the attack, Aljazeera noted.

Iran Court Issues First Protest-Related Death Sentence - Anti-government protests have continued raging in Iran since they started in mid-September, following the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini for alleged non-compliance with the country's strict Islamic dress code. The protests have at times gotten violent, with buildings across various cities burned down, and also with live fire used by security services to quell the unrest. Last week hardliners in parliament demanded that authorities take a harsher stance in order to finally halt the so-called "anti-hijab" demonstrations.A majority of the members of Iran’s parliament last week formally requested that the judiciary "deal decisively with the perpetrators of these crimes [the protests] and with all those who assisted in the crimes and provoked rioters."This as the death toll has grown into the hundreds - though the government says the police and security services side has suffered scores of casualties. The BBC reports that "At least 326 protesters, including 43 children and 25 women, have been killed in a violent crackdown by security forces, according to Iran Human Rights."But it seems the judiciary has taken the criticism from parliament to heart, as it has handed down its first execution sentence for alleged protest-related crimes. According to Al Jazeera: The Iranian judiciary said late on Sunday that an unnamed individual has been sentenced to execution for “setting fire to a government center, disturbing public order and collusion for committing crimes against national security” in addition to “moharebeh” (waging war against God) and “corruption on Earth”.Five more unnamed people, who authorities described as “rioters” – a word the government uses to describe the ongoing protests and those participating in them – were handed between five and 10 years in prison on national security-related charges.More such extreme penalties are expected, given that Tehran officials have long accused the protest movement of being fueled by Iran's enemies such as Israeli and US intelligence, hence the charge of "collusion for committing crimes against national security." John Bolton, who spearheaded Trump’s policies towards Iran for years, insists to BBC Persian that Iranian protesters are armed. He adds that he’s seen images of Kurdish forces that have been trained & armed in Iraq & says they are making a big difference in the current protests. https://t.co/69rxcm5Y2c President Biden and the White House have spurred on the protests, saying that the US stands on the "side of the Iranian people".Early this month at a Democratic campaign event in California, Biden said, "Don’t worry, we’re gonna free Iran. They’re gonna free themselves pretty soon." Iranian officials have meanwhile taken these and similar statements as evidence of an externally driven regime change operation.

US to send over 100 unmanned vessels to Persian Gulf despite stern warnings from Iran -- The commander of United States Central Command (CENTCOM) says a US-led task force will deploy over 100 unmanned vessels in the Persian Gulf region's strategic waters, in spite of stern warnings from Tehran against such deployments. General Michael Kurilla said on Saturday that the deployment will be completed by next year, claiming that it aims to stave off maritime threats. “By this time next year, Task Force 59 will bring together a fleet of over 100 unmanned surface and subsurface vessels operating together, communicating together and providing maritime domain awareness,” said Kurilla, who was sanctioned by the Islamic Republic last month for supporting terrorism and inciting violence against the Iranian nation during the recent riots. Task Force 59 was created in Bahrain in September 2021 to integrate unmanned systems and artificial intelligence into the Pentagon's Middle East operations, after a series of drone attacks blamed on Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said earlier in the day that the pervasive presence of unmanned vessels by extra-regional countries has doubled the region's problems. Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani says the country’s destroyers will be equipped with the indigenous Abu Mahdi naval cruise missiles. "We consider the presence of [extra-regional] forces in the region to be a threat to the peace and stability of the region, and we believe that they have become a threat to the Persian Gulf region and the Oman Sea, as well as energy security in the region," Amir-Abdollahian said at a joint press conference with his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi in Tehran. He added the Islamic Republic believes that regional countries are capable of preserving the peace and security of the region by themselves. Top Iranian officials and commanders have repeatedly warned against the presence of foreign forces in the region, saying Tehran deems such presence to becontradictory to regional peace, stability, and cooperation. . Meanwhile, Kurilla also said that in addition to the unmanned vessels, the US is “building an experimentation program here in the Middle East to beat adversary drones with our partners.” He was apparently referring to Iranian drones, which he claimed to be "the greatest technological threat to regional security."

Iran and Russia reach deal to produce unmanned weaponized aircraft: report - Iran and Russia have finalized an agreement to build hundreds of weaponized drones in Russian territory as the war in Ukraine approaches the nine-month mark, according to The Washington Post. The Post reported on Saturday that Russian and Iranian officials reached the deal earlier this month and the countries are transferring designs and components of the drones to allow production to start potentially within months, based on interviews with three officials familiar with the matter. Iran is officially neutral in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine but has faced international criticism after intelligence reports revealed that Russia has been using Iranian-made drones to attack Ukrainian military and civilian targets. Tehran initially denied the reports but admitted earlier in November that it gave a “limited” number of drones to Russia, saying that it did so before the war began and it does not know how they were being used. The officials told the Post that Russia could significantly increase its stockpile of weapons through the deal by acquiring its own assembly line to make the drones, as production would occur in Russia. Multiple members of NATO, including the United States, have reviewed intelligence on the agreement, the Post reported.Moscow has sent more than 400 drones to Ukraine, often to strike civilian infrastructure, since August, according to the outlet, which cited intelligence officials. Russia sent a barrage of missiles to a variety of targets throughout Ukraine earlier this week, primarily targeting the country’s electrical infrastructure, after Russian forces withdrew from the city of Kherson, the only regional capital they had captured since their full-scale invasion began in February. ‘

Russia, India, China, Iran: The Quad that Really Matters - By Pepe Escobar - Southeast Asia is right at the center of international relations for a whole week viz a viz three consecutive summits: Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Phnom Penh, the Group of Twenty (G20) summit in Bali, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bangkok. Eighteen nations accounting for roughly half of the global economy represented at the first in-person ASEAN summit since the Covid-19 pandemic in Cambodia: the ASEAN 10, Japan, South Korea, China, India, US, Russia, Australia, and New Zealand. With characteristic Asian politeness, the summit chair, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen (or “Colombian”, according to the so-called “leader of the free world”), said the plenary meeting was somewhat heated, but the atmosphere was not tense: "Leaders talked in a mature way, no one left." It was up to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to express what was really significant at the end of the summit. While praising the “inclusive, open, equal structure of security and cooperation at ASEAN”, Lavrov stressed how Europe and NATO “want to militarize the region in order to contain Russia and China’s interests in the Indo-Pacific.” A manifestation of this policy is how “AUKUS is openly aiming at confrontation in the South China Sea," he said. Lavrov also stressed how the West, via the NATO military alliance, is accepting ASEAN “only nominally” while promoting a completely “unclear” agenda. What’s clear though is how NATO “has moved towards Russian borders several times and now declared at the Madrid summit that they have taken global responsibility.” This leads us to the clincher: “NATO is moving their line of defense to the South China Sea.” And, Lavrov added, Beijing holds the same assessment. Here, concisely, is the open “secret” of our current geopolitical incandescence. Washington’s number one priority is the containment of China. That implies blocking the EU from getting closer to the key Eurasia drivers - China, Russia, and Iran – engaged in building the world’s largest free trade/connectivity environment. Adding to the decades-long hybrid war against Iran, the infinite weaponizing of the Ukrainian black hole fits into the initial stages of the battle. For the Empire, Iran cannot profit from becoming a provider of cheap, quality energy to the EU. And in parallel, Russia must be cut off from the EU. The next step is to force the EU to cut itself off from China. All that fits into the wildest, warped Straussian/neo-con wet dreams: to attack China, by emboldening Taiwan, first Russia must be weakened, via the instrumentalization (and destruction) of Ukraine. And all along the scenario, Europe simply has no agency. Real life across key Eurasia nodes reveals a completely different picture. Take the relaxed get-together in Tehran between Russia's top security official Nikolai Patrushev and his Iranian counterpart Ali Shamkhani last week. They discussed not only security matters but also serious business – as in turbo-charged trade. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) will sign a $40 billion deal next month with Gazprom, bypassing US sanctions, and encompassing the development of two gas fields and six oilfields, swaps in natural gas and oil products, LNG projects, and the construction of gas pipelines. Immediately after the Patrushev-Shamkhani meeting, President Putin called President Ebrahim Raeisi to keep up the “interaction in politics, trade and the economy, including transport and logistics," according to the Kremlin. Iranian president reportedly more than “welcomed” the “strengthening” of Moscow-Tehran ties. Patrushev unequivocally supported Tehran over the latest color revolution adventure perpetrated under the framework of the Empire’s endless hybrid war. Iran and the EAEU are negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in parallel to the swap deals with Russian oil. Soon, SWIFT may be completely bypassed. The whole Global South is watching. Simultaneous to Putin’s phone call, Turkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan - conducting his own diplomatic overdrive, and just back from a summit of Turkic nations in Samarkand – stressed that the US and the collective West are attacking Russia “almost without limits”. Erdogan made it clear that Russia is a “powerful” state and commended its “great resistance”. The response came exactly 24 hours later. Turkish intelligence cut to the chase, pointing out that the terrorist bombing in the perpetually busy Istiklal pedestrian street in Istanbul was designed in Kobane in northern Syria, which essentially responds to the US. That constitutes a de-facto act of war and may unleash serious consequences, including a profound revision of Turkiye’s presence inside NATO.

Kyiv is threatened with emergency blackouts: who will be affected - Kievenergo reports that now the light in the capital can be turned off for 10-12 hours. It's all about the approaching winter - because of it, electricity consumption will increase significantly. This was announced by the director of DTEK Dmitry Sakharuk. “The current capacity shortage in the energy system of Ukraine with the onset of winter will grow from the current 1-1,5 million kW to 2-3 million kW and youshe. Therefore, under such conditions, forecasts of power cuts for 10–12 hours a day after the onset of frost may be the most realistic. And the people of Kiev need to prepare for it.” Saharuk said.The most vulnerable will be new buildings on the left bank of the Dnieper, where the heating systems are more concentrated, and therefore more vulnerable. In addition, new buildings draw much more electricity than old houses on the right bank. In addition, there are a large number of small boiler houses on the right bank. But the main challenge will not even be the lack of light, but the threat of freezing of water supply and sewerage systems. At the moment, it is known that Ukrenergo is introducing emergency shutdowns in Kyiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Poltava and Donetsk regions.This is due to yesterday's attacks on the country's energy system, the company says. Scheduled shutdowns will return once the situation stabilizes. We previously reported that civilians can remain without water, light and heating for weeks.

Power outages lead to business closures, Kyiv hit the hardest - According to Western journalists, citing Ukrainian business owners, rolling blackouts for individual businesses were the final blow after they reopened after the suspension of activities due to the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation in the country in February. And now the owners do not know how to stay afloat in the new conditions.Ukrainian officials say the Russian attacks, which damaged 40% of the country's energy infrastructure, have exacerbated an already dire financial situation, as the resulting power outages are forcing many companies to scale back operations. And Kyiv suffered the most.The country is already facing a significant budget deficit caused by the war. Next year she $55 billion in international aid needed, including $38 billion to cover the projected budget deficit, and $17 billion to restore infrastructure, as announced by the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky world finance ministers at the World Bank and IMF annual meetings last month.Minister of Economy Yulia Sviridenko warned that the energy crisis could exacerbate the decline in Ukraine's GDP, compared with the previous official forecast of 35% for 2022. According to economists, the fall in GDP can now be up to 40%. Last week the government nationalized five strategic companies, and officials have said it could nationalize more if business owners don't support the war effort.According to the Ukrainian investment bank Dragon Capital, some sectors of the economy in cities located far from the front lines, such as retail trade, returned to near-pre-war levels in September. But power outages jeopardized recovery.Dragon Capital said that since October 11, when Russia began attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure, traffic at its five malls in Kyiv and western Ukraine has fallen by 15%, after recovering to nearly pre-war levels a month earlier.Companies buy generatorsto keep their malls, offices and warehouses running, and to attract people to them by providing them with electricity, heat and internet connectivity. "Power outages last half a day", - said Tomas Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital.Restaurants, retailers and small businesses hardest hitthat do not have generators or priority power supplies. Hospitals, public transport and other critical infrastructure have priority in power supply.But sectors like IT, where many workers need little more than a charged laptop and stable Wi-Fi, have proven to be more resilient. Kulraj Sma, chief executive of UK-based IT outsourcing company Ciklum, said his projects were largely unaffected and employees were able to do missed work during non-working hours.

Moldova facing dark winter as energy crisis bites -Faced with being starved of the Russian gas it has depended on for decades, the coming months will be crucial for Moldova., since recently a EU candidate country. A silence hangs over Ion Ignat’s normally noisy factory in Chetrosu, Moldova, with his 50 workers fretting about their future. “Normally, all the machines are running. Now all is dead silent,” said the owner of the plant that makes bricks and concrete products about a half an hour’s drive from the capital Chisinau. The 60-year-old decided to halt production early last month for the first time since 1992 when spiralling energy prices made it too expensive to fire the kilns and run the machinery. Ignat hopes to restart production soon if oil and gas prices fall. In the meantime like many others in this impoverished nation nestled between Romania and Ukraine, he is preparing for a hard winter. Faced with being starved of the Russian gas it has depended on for decades, the coming months will be crucial for this country of 2.6 million people with a Soviet past and European ambitions. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will visit later this week to discuss how the bloc can help Moldova, which became an EU candidate in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Its pro-European and Harvard-educated president, Maia Sandu, has warned her country risks running out of gas and electricity this winter, with gas prices rising 600 percent in the last year. “It’s a daily challenge to supply the country with energy. A family is paying 70 to 75% of its incomes on (gas and electricity) bills,” President Sandu said in a recent address to parliament in neighbouring Romania. Moldova — where inflation was 33.9% year-on-year in September – is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas. But Russian energy giant Gazprom is reducing deliveries by half in November, according to Chisinau. As for electricity, Ukraine used to supply 30 percent of its needs. But Russian strikes on energy infrastructure there led to Kyiv to stop all exports to Moldova. The remaining 70 percent of the country’s power normally comes from a thermal power station in Transnistria, a small breakaway region where Russian troops are stationed, which also cut deliveries to Chisinau. EU member Romania said last month it would start selling electricity to its neighbour at a reduced price because of the difficulties created by the war in Ukraine.

Russian missiles cross into NATO member Poland, kill 2: senior US intelligence official -- Russian missiles flew over NATO territory and killed two people in Poland on Tuesday, a senior U.S. intelligence official told the Associated Press. The Polish government has not immediately confirmed the report, but one spokesman, Piotr Muller, told the publication that top leaders were holding an emergency meeting over the "crisis situation."Two people were reportedly killed after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in the village of Przewodów, near the Ukrainian border.Fox News could not immediately reach the Polish defense ministry for confirmation on the strikes.A NATO official told Fox News that it is "looking into these reports and closely coordinating with our Ally Poland."The Pentagon told reporters that it was taking the reports "seriously and looking into them" as well."Right now, we are aware of the press reporting on this, and we have no information at this time to corroborate those reports," Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said. "I don't want to speculate or get into hypotheticals when it comes to our security commitments.""We've been crystal clear that we will defend every inch of NATO territory," he said in reference to Article 5 of the NATO treaty wherein an attack against one NATO country is considered an attack against all members of the alliance. Russia's Ministry of Defense denied the incident, calling the reports a "deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation." "No strikes were made against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian means of destruction," Russia said in a statement.

Ukraine says it's not to blame for Poland missile strike --Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said he had "no doubt" that his country was not to blame for a missile strike that hit a Polish village, killing two people, despite NATO's initial assessment that the blast took place as Ukraine was trying to defend itself against Russia. Zelenskyy said Wednesday on Ukrainian TV that his top military commanders had assured him that "it was not our missile and not our missile strike" that was the cause of Tuesday's incident, which provoked an international furor and fears that a wider conflict between NATO and Russia could erupt. "I have no doubt in [Tuesday's] report to me personally — from the Commander of the Air Force to Commander-in-Chief [Valeriy] Zaluzhny — that it was not our missile and not our missile strike," Zelenskyy said. He reiterated calls from Kyiv to provide it with access to the site of the explosion, near the village of Przewodow in southeastern Poland and just 4 miles from the Ukrainian border, and for Ukraine to be part of a joint investigation being led by Poland and the U.S. "I believe that we have the right to this. Is it possible not to announce the final conclusions until the investigation is completed? I think it is fair. If someone says that this is our rocket, should we be in a joint investigative group? I think we should, it is only fair." Suspicions as to who was behind the attack fell on Russia, particularly given a huge barrage of missile strikes that its forces had inflicted on cities across Ukraine during Tuesday. Poland and its other NATO allies, particularly those in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, initially appeared to assume that Russia was behind the attack, although it denied responsibility and called the incident a "deliberate provocation." As a flurry of high-level diplomatic meetings took place Wednesday, with NATO itself holding an emergency meeting, more details emerged around the incident with Western officials suggesting that early investigations pointed to it being a Ukrainian air defense system being responsible. Nonetheless, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that, ultimately, Russia was to blame for the incident due to its ongoing onslaught in Ukraine. Speaking to the press, Stoltenberg said the military alliance's "preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks.".

Russia Continues to Escalate Electrical Grid/Infrastructure Attacks; Charges Over Attack on Poland Shift Focus from Damage - by Yves Smith - We’ve been saying for some time that both the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Western press have been saying peculiarly little about Russia’s ongoing attacks against the Ukraine electrical grid and other supposed dual military/civilian use infrastructure.But sometimes things get too obvious not to notice. Russia’s attacks all over Ukraine yesterday local afternoon time, which included the heretofore spared Odessa, fell in that category. The initial reason was the scale and scope of the bombing, but the focus quickly shifted to accusations that a missile hit on a truck in Poland was Russia’s doing; as we’ll explain shortly, Biden has said it’s unlikely, plus the photos show the weapon to be a S300 anti-aircraft missile, which is used by Ukraine.The media widely reported that these were the biggest infrastructure attacks so far, deploying nearly 100 missiles. The included a hit on the building that houses the headquarters of Ukraine’s army, the first time Russia has targeted a decision center. This image is from Military Summary, with the orange plane thingies signifying targets. Generally speaking, since they started on October 10, most have gotten barely a mention despite the fact that Russia appears to act roughly twice a week; for instance, Russia launched a barrage mid last week.¹However, the media has sat up and paid notice to the big strikes, typically a barrage of cruise missiles and accompanying drones, with the drones sometimes launched the following day. Those took place first shortly after the Kerch Bridge bombing and then the strikes on Sevastopol. The second barrage was bigger than the first and the one yesterday, the largest and most extensive yet.Note also that the hits yesterday, unlike the earlier big rounds were not retaliatory. Yet these “massive” strikes have been getting bigger over time. Rybar’s early take on the last round:In Kyiv, they said that today’s raid was the largest such attack since the beginning of the NWO. According to Ukrainian resources, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones damaged 15 critical infrastructure facilities. We have repeatedly written that strikes have a cumulative effect, when each subsequent raid leads to more and more serious consequences for the Ukrainian energy system. This is what today’s events have demonstrated:So is Russia now moving to making ever larger degradations of Ukraine’s infrastructure on a periodic basis, whether or not there is a provocation? Perhaps Russian officials will state otherwise, but this volley seems unlikely to have been executed in connection with the Kherson withdrawal…particularly since the Russian left Ukraine holding a deflated balloon.² Per Ukrainian News:Before fleeing, Russian occupiers in the south of Ukraine blew up an energy facility that provided power to the de-occupied territory and a large part of the Mykolayiv Region and shot the batteries.Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the chairman of the board of Ukrenergo, said this on Facebook.“Two auto transformers, each weighing 250 tons, were blown up. The relay protection hall, compressor, battery – which, according to the terrorists, did not make explosions, were additionally shot and crushed.”…As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in Kherson, the occupiers blew up the CHP plant, regional power plant, and water canal. The city was left without electricity and water.Needless to say, the timing of this move should dispatch any fantasies that the US and Russia, to the extent that they have been communicating, were engaged in anything more than pro-forma restatements of existing positions:Russia can prostrate Ukraine solely via keeping up these attacks. Of course, that will happen to cause a humanitarian and refugee crisis. As Helmer pointed out, and we underscored, Russia has spared the train lines that connect the major cities in the West to the border, no doubt to facilitate flight.And the striking failure of the Western press to say all that much about rapidly deteriorating conditions in Kiev seems to suggest European ambivalence about having to take in and support millions of departing Ukrainians.The destruction of the grid may also be a fallback in eventually dictating terms regarding Western Ukraine. We had earlier thought controlling the Black Sea coast would be essential in reducing Ukraine to a weak and essentially captive state. But if Russia makes the cities of Western Ukraine unpalatable to all but the Ukrainian analogue to preppers, in so doing has also torpedoed what is left of its economy….and also is the only country with the electrical equipment to rebuild in a not hugely protracted time frame…what happens then?

Cold, dark confusion grips Ukraine after Putin’s missile barrage – The barrage on the country’s energy infrastructure — the worst it’s experienced since October 10 — not only threw major cities and small villages into darkness and cold, but it’s also wreaked havoc on Ukraine’s railways, grinding trains to a halt and leaving them powerless at stations.Away from the front lines of battle, this is what Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine looks like — a slight, dignified blond-haired woman, with two young children in tow, trying to mourn her father and reach her 72-year-old mother to comfort her.Knowing the journey back home would be arduous, Inna had tried to persuade her daughters to stay in Clapham, south London, where the three have been living with an English family for the past six months. “They have been very kind to us,” she explained..While we waited on the platform, through the windows of a small apartment block across the road, Polish families could be seen glued to their television sets — no doubt absorbing the news that a missile had hit a grain silo in a Polish village just 100 kilometers north of Przemyśl.As the news added to the disquiet among the Ukrainians at the station, the worry became palpable up and down the platform. Daryna, a dark-haired, middle-aged woman, was heading to see her 21-year-old son. “I’ve been living in Scotland with my daughter,” she said. “But he’s studying in Kyiv, and I want to make sure he’s OK.”“Going home now is like being transported from the normal to the abnormal,” she added.Galina, the director of a small clothing company, was impatient to see her 10-year-old daughter, whom she left in the care of her grandmother in Kyiv while making a quick business trip to Poland. She kept texting them to make sure they were safe, but reassuring replies didn’t assuage her, as both she and the others kept scrolling on social media for news about their hometowns — Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Rivne and Lviv, all affected by the nationwide missile bombardment.My destination, Lviv, was badly impacted by the recent blasts. Several explosions were heard from the city on Tuesday, prompting Mayor Andriy Sadovyi to warn on his Telegram channel that everyone should “stay in shelter!” However, many won’t have received that message, as neither the internet nor the cellular networks were working in parts of the city. Officials said missiles and drones caused severe damage to the power grid and energy infrastructure, despite reports of successful missile interceptions too. Some 95 kilometers from Przemyśl, Lviv was cold and damp when we arrived shortly after dawn on Wednesday. After giving up on the train, we’d crossed the border by foot and cadged a lift to the city.As we made our way there, the city was largely without power, the traffic lights weren’t working, and the air raid sirens were clamoring. The only lights we could see were from buildings equipped with generators.At my hotel, the manager, Andriy, told me it takes 37 gallons of diesel an hour to keep the electricity flowing, but he cautioned the water might not be that hot. “When the all-clear sounds, we will serve breakfast for another hour,” he added helpfully.By the time I finished breakfast, electric trains were already up and running again in Lviv, less than a day after the city’s generation and transmission infrastructure was hit, and by evening, the lights were on all across the city — yet further testament to Ukrainian resilience, improvisation and refusal to be cowed.

Opinion | Every Ukrainian knows both patriots and collaborators - I couldn’t be more thrilled that Ukraine has finally liberated my hometown of Kherson. Yet there are still countless problems ahead. The city has no water, gas or electricity. People are hungry and cold.And then there are the moral and political problems — such as alleged collaborators.Consider the story of my old high school civics teacher, Tatyana Tomilina, 56. When the Russians occupied Kherson in March, Tomilina — who already had a reputation as a pro-Russian separatist — seemed ready to help. They appointed her rector of Kherson State University, a high-profile cultural and political position that would have only gone to someone they believed willing to work hand-in-hand with the occupation government. In August, the Ukrainian government launched an official investigation into her activities, declaring her to be “under suspicion” of committing the crime of collaboration. The accusation was linked to her alleged dissemination of Russian propaganda, her implementation of Russian curriculum in the university, and her efforts to train a new generation of pro-Russian journalists under what critics claimed was the guise of a “media school.”On Sept. 12, her Kherson apartment was blown up. The circumstances are murky, but it’s widely assumed that the attack was carried out by Ukrainian partisans, who were targeting her for working with the Russians. She survived but ended up in intensive care in the hospital. One man, apparently her security guard, died at the scene.My feelings about Tomilina were complicated even before the war. I never liked her lessons. She didn’t react well to questions and seemed to enjoy bullying her students. I was glad she taught us for only one semester. Though I come from a Russian-speaking home, I participated in multiple Ukrainian-language competitions: First, I represented my class, then I competed at the city level with students from other schools. My Ukrainian language teacher was Alla Lukiv, now 62. She’s the one who prepared us for these competitions. She wanted us, the kids from the Russian-speaking Kherson region, to perform equally well in the Ukrainian-language competitions. And we did. Recently, almost 20 years later, I visited her in a village outside Kyiv, where she rents an apartment. In July, she realized that she could no longer continue her life in Kherson under Russian occupation. Before the February invasion, she devoted herself to developing the Ukrainian language and culture, educating hundreds of young independent Ukrainians. Her prospects under Russian occupation would have been grim.

First snowfall in Ukraine hit by power cuts Ukraine saw snow fall Thursday, after the regional governor this week warned the situation could become "difficult".The first snow of the season on Thursday fell in Ukraine, which has been wracked by power cuts following Russian strikes on energy infrastructure throughout the country. AFP journalists in the capital Kyiv, which has been suffering from scheduled and unannounced electricity cuts, saw snow fall Thursday, after the regional governor this week warned the situation could become "difficult" and that temperatures could drop to minus 10 degrees Celsius

Kremlin says grain talks with U.N. last week were ‘constructive’ -The Kremlin said that talks with the United Nations last week on a deal safeguarding the shipment of grain from Ukrainian ports had been “fairly constructive”, raising hopes that it can be rolled over smoothly. Senior U.N. officials met a Russian delegation in Geneva on Friday to discuss Moscow’s grievances about the Black Sea grain initiative, which has lifted a Russian blockade of Ukraine’s seaports. “There were talks with the U.N. last week, fairly constructive talks. We have our interest in this deal, which was originally part of the whole mechanism of the deal,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. Russia has been demanding unhindered access to world markets for its own food and fertiliser exports in return for agreeing to a rollover of the Black Sea deal, which is due for renewal on Saturday. Moscow has indicated it could quit the deal if progress is not made on its concerns. We are actually still a week away from the extension date, so work is ongoing,” Peskov added. In a sign of intensifying communication as the deadline of the deal approaches, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Vershinin, met the European Union’s new ambassador to Russia, Roland Galharague, on Monday. They discussed the Black Sea deal and the need for promotion of Russian food and fertilisers on world markets, the Russian ministry said in a statement. The Dutch government said last week it would release 20,000 tonnes of Russian fertiliser stuck in Rotterdam port to Malawi, after a request from the United Nations. Additional supplies of Russian fertiliser to Africa are planned from Estonia and Belgium where cargoes are stranded. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and a major supplier of fertilisers to global markets. Ukraine’s main export route, through its Black Sea ports, was blocked between late February, when Moscow sent armed forces into its neighbour’s territory, and July, when the U.N.-brokered deal was signed. Since then, Moscow has repeatedly said that its shipments of grain and fertilisers, though not directly targeted by Western sanctions, are constrained because the sanctions make it harder for exporters to process payments or to obtain vessels and insurance.

Watch- China's Xi Loudly Excoriates Justin Trudeau In Crowded Room - A very rare, or we should say unprecedented, moment was caught on a hot mic at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia on Wednesday which involved Chinese President Xi Jinping openly berating Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.In the encounter, President Xi is seen angrily confronting Trudeau for leaking the details of a conversation that happened between them at the summit, which the Chinese leader assumed was private. It was an absolutely humiliating scene for the Canadian PM, especially as it was caught on film - a clip of which is now going viral. Intimate insight of Xi lecturing Trudeau at G20. Xi said it was not ok, to leak their previous discussion points to newspapers. “That’s not the way the conversation was conducted” pic.twitter.com/AxOJF9RtxE The episode also caught the attention of Bloomberg, The Guardian, and other international outlets. The two conversed via a translator standing close to them. "That is not appropriate, and we didn't do it that way," Xi said in Mandarin, at first with a half-smile. "If there is sincerity, we can communicate well with mutual respect, otherwise the outcome will not be easy to tell," he added, charging Trudeau with misleadingly conveying the contents of a prior dialogue to the media. "Everything we discussed was leaked to the paper(s), that's not appropriate."The tense exchange continued, with Trudeau hesitantly trying to calm the Chinese leader, who is rarely if ever seen venting or losing his temper in public (Chinese state media seeks to carefully present his image to the public). Trudeau cut in: "In Canada we believe in free and open and frank dialogue and that is what we will continue to have, we will continue to look to work constructively together but there will be things we disagree on." By then a visibly frustrated Xi cuts him off, firing back, "That's great, the conditions first" - and then quickly shakes Trudeau's hand and briskly walks off. The day prior, on Tuesday, the two leaders held a 10-minute informal meeting, the contents of which did not result in a press readout issued from either government. Meanwhile, Reuters speculates on the likely source of Xi's exasperation: His displeasure was likely a reference to media reports that Trudeau brought up "serious concerns" about alleged espionage and Chinese "interference" in Canadian elections when meeting with Xi on Tuesday, his first talks with the Chinese leader in more than three years.A VERY RARE insight into just how blunt President Xi can be if you act in a way that is unbecoming of a world leader.Here he absolutely schools Trudeau after the latter leaked their private conversations (inaccurately) to the media.Trudeau walks off like a scolded puppy. pic.twitter.com/iyPHx5wolk

Turkey faces removal from the Council of Europe -- Nebahat Akkoc says her life began afresh after the European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2000 that she had suffered torture while in Turkish custody, emboldening her and others to carry on their fight for women’s rights. Now she fears Turks could lose such protections as Turkey faces removal from the Council of Europe (CoE), a leading human rights body, after it failed to implement a 2019 court ruling to release jailed businessman and philanthropist Osman Kavala. The CoE’s Committee of Ministers has launched infringement proceedings against Ankara that have so far stressed dialogue but could eventually see Turkey’s removal or its membership suspended, experts say. Asked about potential measures, a CoE spokesperson said it was for the Committee to decide on steps and their timing. ECHR data shows it delivered 3,820 judgments regarding Turkey between 1959 and 2021, of which 3,385 included at least one rights violation – the highest of any country. Turkey has the largest population among the 46 member states and signed the Convention before many of them. It is the second time that proceedings have been launched against a member state. In the previous instance, Azerbaijan eventually executed a ruling. While the consequences are not outlined, experts say Turkey should not be removed as that would deprive 85 million citizens of a mechanism that has provided restitution for thousands. “I hope the Council of Europe does not deal the final blow,” said Akkoc, a prominent women’s rights defender. “I hope (Turkish) authorities implement the rulings by the ECHR and that we are not completely severed from the Western world.” She said Turkey’s refusal to implement ECHR rulings made her “pessimistic”. But if it were no longer bound by the European Convention on Human Rights, the rule of law in Turkey would be void, she added.

"Lack Of Humanity" - France Threatens Italy With "Consequences" Over "Stubborn Refusal" To Accept Migrants - France will welcome the Ocean Viking and its 234 illegal immigrants “on an exceptional basis,” President Macron’s Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin announced on Thursday, Nov. 10, after several days of wrangling with Italy. Darmanin also said that a third of the passengers would be “relocated” in France after disembarking in the port of Toulon.“Because of Italy’s stubborn refusal and lack of humanity,” France had to allow the ship to dock, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna noted.The Ocean Viking flies a Norwegian flag but is chartered by the French NGO SOS Méditerranée, whose headquarters are in Marseille. It had been waiting for 20 days for permission to dock in an Italian port, but the Meloni government refused. The French interior minister has described this refusal as “incomprehensible” and “selfish.” On Nov. 11, France’s EU Affairs Minister Laurence Boone further said that “trust is broken” with Italy. The French government has also called Italy’s stance “unacceptable behavior” and suggested, through its spokesman Olivier Véran, that this could in the future have an impact on NextGenerationEU funds paid to Italy. Olivier Véran said on the public radio France Info:“There are clear European rules accepted by the Italians who are, in fact, the first beneficiaries of the European financial solidarity mechanism.”A statement by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who claimed it had been the duty of Paris from the outset to accept the ship, was “in total contradiction with our exchanges,” Colonna insisted.“There will be consequences if Italy persists with this attitude,” she warned.However, as the Italian newspaper Il Giornale pointed out on Nov. 9, Italy has taken charge of three of the four boats that requested to disembark illegal immigrants at the beginning of November.Remix News' Olivier Bault reports that the blackmail involving the Italian recovery plan was well understood on the Italian side, and all the more so that the very same funds continue to be used to blackmail Poland and Hungary, the only two EU countries that have still not received a single cent of NextGenerationEU money.On Nov. 8, as the Ocean Viking had finally decided to head for the French coast, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the Italians appreciated “France’s decision to share the responsibility for the migratory emergency, which until now has rested on the shoulders of Italy and a few other Mediterranean states, by opening its ports to the Ocean Viking.”In an interview with Corriere della sera, Italian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Edmondo Cirielli stressed that “France welcoming a ship every four to five years is nothing extraordinary, but it is still good news.” However, France’s interior minister on Thursday announced retaliatory measures against Italy for not allowing the disembarkation of 234 illegal immigrants aboard the French NGO SOS Méditerranée’s ship: France is canceling the relocation agreement under which it was to take charge of some 3,000 asylum seekers from Italy by the summer of 2023, and it will strengthen controls at the Italian border. Worse still, the French government is asking its European partners to suspend relocations from Italy as well.

UK and France sign new repressive anti-immigration deal - The war against refugees and asylum seekers escalated this week with the revised agreement between the UK and France intended to stop thousands of desperate people crossing the English Channel.On Monday, after months of negotiations, UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman met with French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin to sign off on an increase in payments from £55 million to £63 million a year to keep refugees out of Britain. It was completed after final talks between UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, and his French counterpart Catherine Colonna. Since London began to pay Paris in 2018 for preventing migrants reaching UK shores, total costs to the UK have reached €200 millionThe deal finances a 40 percent increase in the number of officers patrolling French beaches (from 200 to 300) and further use of high-tech equipment such as drones and night-vision cameras. The Home Office said it would fund further investment “in cutting edge surveillance technology, drones, detection dog teams, CCTV and helicopters to help detect and prevent crossings.”Its statement boasted, “The arrangement means, for the first time, specialist UK officers will also be embedded [in French control rooms] with their French counterparts, which will increase information sharing, improve understanding of the threat, and ensure UK expertise is at the heart of efforts to disrupt crossings and clamp down on people smugglers. This more integrated approach will also include strengthened operational co-operation, including joint UK-France analysis teams supporting the co-ordination and exchange of information by French-command HQ.”Britain would support, “reception and removal centres in France for migrants whose journeys to the UK are prevented, to further deter crossing attempts.”

EU imposes meeting ban on UK officials - EU officials have been told not to hold meetings with UK counterparts unless they are strictly related to the war in Ukraine or are ‘legally mandatory’, in the latest indication of frosty relations between Brussels and London. In a note circulated to senior European Commission officials, which was seen by EURACTIV, the Secretary-General of the Commission Ilze Juhansone requested that “all Directorates-General and Services inform the Secretariat-General of any requests for bilateral meetings with United Kingdom officials or United Kingdom stakeholders to be made or that have been received, irrespective of the level of seniority.” Meetings should only take place if they are “legally mandatory”, relate to the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement, or relate strictly to the war in Ukraine. “Declining a meeting request should be explained on the basis of the recent developments in the EU-United Kingdom relations,” the Commission’s top civil servant added. Brussels and London have been at loggerheads over a number of issues since the new Trade and Cooperation Agreement governing EU-UK relations came into force in 2021, including the Northern Ireland protocol and UK access to the Horizon Europe research programme, with both sides having launched infringement proceedings against the other. However, at a meeting of the UK-EU Parliamentary Partnership Assembly (PPA) in London earlier this week, Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič insisted that he did not believe the EU and the UK were “worlds apart” on resolving the implementation of the protocol. “If there is political will, I’m sure that we can sort it out within a couple of weeks because our negotiating teams know these topics from all angles,” he said. The communique also refers to the government bill currently making its way through the UK parliament, which would give ministers the power to override the Northern Ireland protocol, If adopted, the bill would represent “a clear violation of the Withdrawal Agreement” and “constitute an unprecedented breach of international obligations and trust,” Juhansone stated. “Requests should be sent, or requests should be accepted, only once the view of the Secretariat-General has been communicated,” she concluded.