Fed's Daly says 'premature' to rule out another 0.75% rate hike -- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Monday it’s premature to take another 75-basis point rate hike off the table ahead of the central bank’s December policy meeting. “It’s premature in my mind to take anything off the table,” Daly said when asked during a media Q&A whether a 75-basis point rate hike is still possible for the next policy meeting if forthcoming inflation reports came in hot. “I’m going into the meeting with the full range of adjustments that we could make on the table and not taking off prematurely.” Daly reiterated she still sees the need to raise the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.75%-5.25%, but added the caveat that nothing is set in stone. The Fed funds rate is currently set in a range of 3.75%-4%. Daly said she doesn’t feel it’s appropriate to make policy based on one data point, as the consumer price index showed signs of cooling last month. “It’s way too early to cause a turning point on inflation,” Daly told reporters. “One month does not a victory make. It doesn’t give me comfort. We will need more good months of data before call this a turning point." On the flip side, Daly also warned of the risk of overtightening and raising interest rates too much by ignoring the gap between the Fed’s policy rate and what financial markets have priced in. “As we make decisions about further rate adjustments, it will be important to remain conscious of this gap between the federal funds rate and the tightening in financial markets,” Daly said in a speech in Irvine, California. “Ignoring it raises the chances of tightening too much.” Daly says while the official range on the fed funds rate is between 3.75%- 4%, financial markets are acting like it is around 6%. She says that higher level incorporates forward guidance and the balance sheet runoff, and is something she considers another data point when trying to make decisions on setting policy.
Real impact of Fed hikes likely bigger than what target rate implies, Daly says - (Reuters) -San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Monday the real-world impact of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hikes is likely greater than what its short-term rate target implies. Against the Fed's current short-term target rate of between 3.75% and 4.00%, Daly said some researchers have found "the level of financial tightening in the economy is much higher than what the (federal) funds rate tells us." Compared to the current target rate, she added, "financial markets are acting like it is around 6%." Given that markets have priced in a monetary policy setting that's well beyond what the Fed has imposed on the economy so far, Daly said "it will be important to remain conscious of this gap between the federal funds rate and the tightening in financial markets. Ignoring it raises the chances of tightening too much." That said, the Fed's policy rate is currently in "modestly restrictive" territory and "there is more work to do" to get monetary policy in the right place to cool inflation, Daly said a speech before the Orange County Business Council in California. The San Francisco Fed chief is not currently a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which will almost certainly raise its policy rate next month, the only question being by how much. Speaking with reporters after her remarks, Daly said she had yet to decide what size rate rise she will support at the December FOMC meeting, citing a need to see the upcoming economic data before making the call. "It’s premature, in my mind, to take anything off the table," Daly said. She also cautioned against using the market-based 6% funds rate setting as a reference point for setting actual policy. "I use the proxy rate as a point of data, not as an indication we should stop earlier," she told reporters. Daly weighed in as Fed officials have continued to beat the drum for further rate rises aimed at lowering the highest levels of inflation in 40 years. The central bank has lifted its short-term target from a near-zero level in March. In economic projections released in September, Fed policymakers penciled in a mid-4% target rate for next year. Comments from a wide range of officials since then, however, have suggested that, given the performance of inflation and the ongoing strength of the job market, they may want to go higher than that. Daly has herself said they could go as high as 5.25%.
Fed Should Be Mindful of Lags as It Tightens Rates Further, Daly Says - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that officials will need to be mindful of the lags with which monetary policy works, while repeating that she sees interest rates rising to at least 5%.“As we work to bring policy to a sufficiently restrictive stance -- the level required to bring inflation down and restore price stability -- we will need to be mindful,” Daly told the Orange County Business Council on Monday in Irvine, California. “Adjusting too little will leave inflation too high. Adjusting too much could lead to an unnecessarily painful downturn.”Policymakers have raised the Fed’s benchmark interest rate from near zero to a target range of 3.75% to 4% this year, including four back-to-back 75 basis-point hikes, the most aggressive tightening campaign since the early 1980s.Investors expect the Fed to moderate the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points when officials gather Dec. 13-14.Daly told reporters after the speech that she would be entering the meeting with the full range of rate-hike options on the table, while repeating that she sees rates peaking at least as high as 5%.“I tend to be on the more hawkish side of the distribution, if you will, as I think about what needs to be done here and where the risks lie,” she said on a telephone conference call. “5% to me is a good starting point,” she said, adding that it could go high if needed.In her prepared remarks, Daly said the Fed’s ongoing reduction of its balance sheet and the forward guidance officials are providing about the future path of policy also work as tightening mechanisms, which is being reflected in financial conditions.“While the funds rate is between 3.75 and 4%, financial markets are acting like it is around 6%,” she said. “As we make decisions about further rate adjustments, it will be important to remain conscious of this gap between the federal funds rate and the tightening in financial markets,” Daly said. “Ignoring it raises the chances of tightening too much.”
Fed's Mester wants more progress on inflation before ending interest rate hikes -- Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Monday inflation will need to show more signs of progress before she's ready to stop advocating for interest rate increases. While acknowledging that recent data has been encouraging, the central bank official told CNBC that the progress is only a start. "We're going to have more work to do, because we need to see inflation really on a sustainable downward path back to 2%," she said in a live "Closing Bell" interview with Sara Eisen. "We've had some good news on the inflation front, but we need to see more good news and sustained good news to make sure that we are returning to price stability as soon as we can." Markets widely expect the Fed in December to approve its seventh rate hike of the year, but this time slowing down to a 0.5 percentage point increase from a string of four straight 0.75 percentage point moves. Mester said she's on board with the reduced pace. "We're at a point where we're going to enter a restrictive stance of policy. At that point, I think it makes sense that we can slow down a bit the ... pace of increases," she said. "We're still going to raise the funds rate, but we're at a reasonable point now where we can be very deliberate in setting monetary policy." Multiple other Fed officials in recent days have voiced similar sentiments, essentially that the tempo can be slowed a bit but there's still a need to continue tightening policy until inflation shows more signs of a letup. Markets rallied in recent days following data showing the rate of price increases slower than estimates, though inflation is still running at a 7.7% annual rate as gauged by the consumer price index. The Fed targets inflation at 2%. In recent days, the Fed has faced some criticism that its focus on inflation could cause unnecessary damage to the economy. Mester said the Fed is trying to bring down inflation "as painlessly as possible." "I don't think we should underestimate the consequences of continued inflation in the long run for the health of the economy," she said.
FOMC Minutes Split Between Dovish (Slower Hikes) And Hawkish (Higher Terminal Rate) Views - Perhaps most critically when breaking down the FOMC statement - the focus falls on one word: "various".Bloomberg concludes that while policymakers stressed their “strong commitment” to reducing inflation, support for a higher rate peak may have been less than universal.Hence the dovish lean to a hawkish message from the Minutes* * *Since The Fed hiked rates by 75bps (for the 4th time) on Nov 2nd, the dollar has been monkeyhammered lower while bonds and bullion have outperformed (along with gains in stocks) as hopes for a pause (the FOMC statement) dominated reality of no pause (Powell and dozens of Fed Speakers since)...While there has been lots of volatility, the market's expectation for The Fed's terminal rate is basically flat while the market's pricing in a more dovish reaction by The Fed after they have reached the peak and sparked a recession...The yield curve has flattened dramatically since the last FOMC statement (inverting ever deeper as recession risks get priced in)... Ahead of the Minutes, the market priced a just 12% chance of 75bps at December's FOMC (100% chance of 50bps), and 63% chance of 50bps in February. So what do The Minutes Show?
- The Doves:A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate.Several officials also voiced concerns that “continued rapid policy tightening” would raise risks of financial instability.
- The Hawks:In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants reaffirmed their strong commitment to returning inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective, and they continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate in order to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to bring inflation down over time. Many participants commented that there was significant uncertainty about the ultimate level of the federal funds rate needed to achieve the Committee's goals and that their assessment of that level would depend, in part, on incoming data.A few other participants noted that, before slowing the pace of policy rate increases, it could be advantageous to wait until the stance of policy was more clearly in restrictive territory and there were more concrete signs that inflation pressures were receding significantlyWith monetary policy approaching a 'sufficiently restrictive' level, participants emphasised final destination of Fed funds rate had become more important than pace.Even so, various participants noted that, with inflation showing little sign thus far of abating, and with supply and demand imbalances in the economy persisting, their assessment of the ultimate level of the federal funds rate that would be necessary to achieve the Committee's goals was somewhat higher than they had previously expected.
Most Fed officials saw slower pace of hikes 'soon' as appropriate - Federal Reserve officials at their meeting earlier this month concluded it would soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases, signaling the central bank was leaning toward downshifting to a 50-basis-point hike in December. "A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate," according to minutes from their Nov. 1-2 gathering released Wednesday in Washington. At the same time, "various" officials concluded that "the ultimate level of the federal funds rate that would be necessary to achieve the committee's goals was somewhat higher than they had previously expected." U.S. stocks and Treasuries rallied while the dollar fell following the report, as investors took a dovish message from the minutes. At the meeting, officials raised the benchmark rate 75 basis points for a fourth straight time to 3.75% to 4%, extending the most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s to combat inflation at a 40-year high. Officials discussed the effects of lags in monetary policy and the effects on the economy and inflation, and how soon cumulative tightening would begin to impact spending and hiring. A number of Fed officials said a slower pace of rate increases would allow the central bankers to judge progress on their goals. "The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited regarding why such an assessment was important," the minutes said. The Fed said in its policy statement that rates would continue rising to a "sufficiently restrictive" level, while taking account of cumulative tightening and policy lags. Chair Jerome Powell explained in a post-meeting press conference that rates will ultimately go higher than officials expected when they submitted forecasts in September, while signaling the pace of increases would moderate going forward. Several officials since then have backed downshifting to a 50-basis-point increase when they gather next month. Investors see things the same way, while betting that rates will peak around 5% by mid-2023, according to futures contracts.
Fed's QE Was a Colossal Monetary Policy Mistake – Bloomberg – by Allison Schrager, Manhattan Institute --There’s no convincing evidence that central banks’ purchases of trillions of dollars of bonds and other financial assets helped any economy. The great quantitative easing experiment was a mistake. It's time central banks acknowledge it for the failure it was and retire it from their policy arsenal as soon as they’re able. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, an integral part of central banks' play book in the US, the UK and the European Union has been QE — the practice of buying up long-term bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
BankThink: Placing blame for inflation and a likely recession | American Banker -By Kenneth H. Thomas - Who's to blame for our record inflation and likely recession?Everyone blames President Biden, but the real cause is his predecessor Donald Trump for appointing Jerome Powell, who will likely be remembered as the worst Federal Reserve chair in modern times.Yes, Biden reappointed Powell, but neither president had any idea of the mistake of having a businessperson rather than a Ph.D. economist in the nation's second- most powerful position.Powell's predecessors for the last 35 years, namely Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen, all had doctorates in economics.Powell, with degrees in politics and law, got his economics "Ph.D." from the Carlyle Group, one of the Beltway's most politically influential revolving-door firms.Having studied the Fed for over 50 years and taught my students at Wharton about it for over 40 of those years, I believe the Senate should not confirm the appointment of any future Fed chairs without a doctorate in economics.Every economist studies Milton Friedman, who famously concluded that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."This means inflation follows a rapid increase in the money supply but after a long and variable lag, often 12 to 24 months or longer. Another way of saying this is that inflation results from "too much money chasing too few goods." This is exactly what happened starting in March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a record increase in the money supply from monetary and fiscal channels. Unanticipated disruptions in the supply chain reduced the amount of goods, causing a double- whammy impact.The lagged inflation did not hit the economic fan until the second half of 2021, but Powell ignored it by notoriously saying the high inflation was "transitory."Was this mistake, arguably one of the worst ever by a Fed chair, the result of his failure to listen to the more than 400 Ph.D. economists at the Fed? Or perhaps something else?The Fed's rate-deciding Federal Open Market Committee is dominated by the "my way or the highway" Powell, who recently proclaimed, "I control those messages and that's my job." In my opinion, Powell obligingly kept rates at record lows last year to keep his job. After many public disagreements with Trump, the politically trained Powell knew the best way to get reappointed by Biden was to keep rates low to continue stimulating the stock market and economy. Despite progressive Democrats' push for an alternate candidate, Powell's political playbook worked, and he was reappointed last November.It is my further opinion that a Fed chair, like most politicians, will do almost anything to maintain their personal power, even at the expense of the dollar's purchasing power.Powell compounded his transitory mistake by signaling specific future rate increases instead of the traditional Fed approach of keeping all rate options open until the last minute. For example, after the May meeting he all but guaranteed a 0.5% increase for the June and July FOMC meetings and specifically rejected a 0.75% increase. However, he shocked worldwide markets at the last minute by reversing and announcing the highest (0.75%) increase in 28 years. Making matters worse, he leaked this super-sensitive information the day before the FOMC meeting to The Wall Street Journal. Such Fed rate leaks to the press are unheard-of, because it only takes one person in the chain of editors, typesetters, proofers, etc., to improperly use this advance inside information to make millions in the market.
How Fed Easy Money Fueled The FTX Crypto Collapse - The collapse of the crypto exchange FTX may prove to be a canary in the coal mine of the easy-money fueled crypto bubbles. FTX's collapse has exposed just how little due diligence is actually taking place among investors who are apparently willing to put large amounts of cash in whatever place looks like the hottest new thing and promises—without convincing evidence—big-time returns. Indeed, FTX seems to be a textbook example of how many investors are easily hoodwinked by media narratives about the latest investment genius who has magically discovered some new way of delivering unprecedented returns. The "genius" in this case is Sam Bankman-Fried, a 30-year old MIT grad who ran FTX into the ground and had placed control of his clients' money in the hands in the small number of friends with virtually no real experience, knowledge, or scruples about how to responsibly manage funds. Financial record-keeping and reporting at the company was haphazard at best. Yet, hundreds of thousands—possibly more than a million—clients were willing to pour money into the exchange. Some put most of their entire net worth. Institutional investors put in much more. Sequoia Capital, for example, famously put $210 million into FTX. "Due diligence" involved a "last-minute Zoom call" with Bankman-Fried during which he played video games. That money is now all "missing." Why were so many willing to so carelessly hand over much of their life savings to an operation run by a man-child in short pants who was essentially accountable to no one? The answer lies in the fact that when we mix speculative manias with decades of central-bank-fueled easy money, we end up with a world in which FOMO and a desperate search for yield leads to disaster. The FTX implosion is exactly what we should expect to see as our decade-old bubble economy comes to grips with rising interest rates, a slow-down in easy money, and a looming recession. Up until this year, this inevitable economic decline was repeatedly delayed because many problems and inefficiencies in a business can be papered over when it's always possible to just borrow more and pay off old debts with new cheaper debt. The gambit works when interest rates are continually falling, as has been the case over the past 40 years. That is, it was easy to do so until recently. Now that firms can no longer always count on more cheap money coming down the road, losses and out-of-control expenses become a problem. When borrowing costs go up, inefficient and fraudulent companies have a harder time covering up losses and a lack of revenue. This becomes especially problematic for highly leveraged companies that have enormous debt-service costs, engage in financial shenanigans, and take on high risk investments like derivatives. In recent months, we've begun to see crypto exchanges get into trouble for similar reasons. FTX is just the most spectacular recent example, but FTX could have kept its problems hidden for longer had the easy money kept flowing as usual. Here's what happened: As a crypto exchange, FTX functioned in some ways like a quasi-bank. Clients put money into the exchange as a way to facilitate client investments and use of their crypto to both invest and consume. Much of this also revolved around FTX's crypto token known as FTT. Clients were "depositors" of a sort. Like a bank, however, FTX also tried to make money by making investments of its own through a sister company, a crypto-trading firm called Alameda Research. FTX was effectively acting as a fractional-reserve bank, using client "deposits" to make speculative investments through Alameda. But then the easy-money economy this year tightened up slightly as the Federal Reserve raised rates and backed off Quantitative Easing. One effect of this was falling prices for a variety of crypto currencies, FTT among them. Investors—both small-time crypto buyers and large institutional investors—began to sell their crypto or forego new purchases in order to get liquidity for use elsewhere. As a result, ordinary clients at FTX began to withdraw their holdings. Meanwhile, large crypto exchange Binance began to sell its own considerable holdings of FTT. Suddenly, FTX had to give large numbers of departing clients their money back. But FTX had already committed much of its money elsewhere: like many investors, Alameda and FTX were making riskier bets in an effort to stay ahead of inflation in a Fed-created world of ultra-low yields. FTX then found that it didn't have enough liquidity to meet its obligations to clients. Moreover, as the Fed scaled back on QE and the economy slowed, asset prices began to stagnate. This meant FTX's collateral was losing value and it could not be easily sold to cover client withdrawals. On November 11, it all collapsed.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests slower economic growth in October""Index points to steady economic growth in September." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report:The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.05 in October from +0.17 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in October, and three categories deteriorated from September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.09 in October from +0.19 in September. [more]The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in thisbackground PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth.The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 20th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is 2.6% below the same week in 2019 (97.4% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently. Movie Tickets: This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 17th. Movie ticket sales were at $255 million last week - almost entirely due to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - up about 21% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). This data is through Nov 12th. The occupancy rate was up 0.9% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. . As of November 11th, gasoline supplied was down 6.2% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.
Is the Collective West Going Soon to Be Hoisted on the Zelensky Petard? by Yves Smith - Some of the close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have been talking up the prospects of peace talks. As we’ll discuss shortly, your humble blogger thinks this view is not currently well aligned with reality. Yes, things look to have thawed to the point that the US has backed off of worst-than-the-darkest-days-of-cold-war non-communication with Russia. But while thawing from close to absolute zero to a mere deep freeze is technically warming, it’s still awfully frigid. The two sides have zero bargaining overlap in their positions, which means no basis for discussions. And one of the biggest impediments to any settlement, other than Russia eventually dictating terms, is the leader the collective West has put on a pedestal: Zelensky, with the additional baggage of his Banderite inner circle. The other big impediment to a cessation of hostilities any time soon is NATO. The US and NATO knows NATO manhood is at stake and that it can’t be seen to lose to Russia. They may be pinning their hopes on Russia leaving a rump Ukraine as a success, when Russia never intended to occupy the entire country.But the US and NATO seem unable to process that Russia is destroying Ukraine by attacking its energy grid and could do the same to other European countries.1 It’s going to be hard to depict Western-Ukraine-as-failed-state, and a flood of refugees to Europe, as some sort of US/NATO win. But that’s the likely outcome on current trajectories.A fair number of Russia-sympathetic, or at least “not buying what Ukraine is selling” commentators appear to have misread some noise in Western press. This may be due to cognitive bias. Anyone other than hardcore hawks in Russia would likely see the war end sooner rather than later. The partial mobilization has brought the war home. Second, the Ukraine skeptics have a much better view of how the war is going than consumers of Ukraine PR via the Western press, pundits, and policy-makers. To them, it is clear things are not going well for Ukraine and the odds of Ukraine prevailing (pushing Russia out of Ukraine) are zilch, and even regaining much territory, are extremely slim. Surely the people in the West with the inside skinny understand this, and should therefore want to talk terms before things get worse. The story that kicked off the peace talks hopium was in the WaPo. It was explicit that Zelensky had been told that he needed to look less inflexible about negotiating with Russia but not change his posture. Somehow commentators overlooked the second part of the instructions. The second was the WSJ revelation that National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had been communicating with two Russian officials for an unspecified amount of time. That was interpreted as working on a deal, as opposed to bare minimum keeping channels open. Recall also that Russia reported (before this story) that Russia had been getting regular “Don’t you dare use nukes” warnings from a senior level in the US when Russia had threatened nothing of the kind. Russia interpreted these communiques as escalation, not de-escalation. Colonel Douglas Macgregor had insider intel on Sullivan’s most recent communique and he said Sullivan made a coded or overt threat about deploying US/NATO troops. Sullivan had at least alluded to and perhaps fleshed out a “coalition of the willing” entering the war on behalf of Ukraine, as mooted by former general and CIA chief David Petraeus a few weeks earlier.2The next bit of news that got the “negotiations are happening” crowd out over its skis was the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley leaking to the New York Times that he’d told the White House that “Ukraine should negotiate while it’s ahead.” First, Milley would not leaked it if he had won that discussion.3 Milley was made to retreat in the following days, depicting Russia as “really hurting bad” and underscoring that the Ukraine was in the drivers’ seat and the US would be there “as long as it takes”. Milley’s boss, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin took an even firmer position in a speech Why Ukraine Matters last Friday in Halifax, maintaining that defeating Russia was key to US and world security:
AP Editor Said She “Can’t Imagine” A US Intelligence Official Being Wrong – Caitlin Johnstone -- The Associated Press journalist who reported a US intelligence official’s false claim that Russia had launched missiles at Poland last week has been fired. As we discussed previously, AP’s anonymously sourced report which said “A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people” went viral because of the massive implications of direct hot warfare erupting between Russia and the NATO alliance. AP subsequently retracted its story as the mainstream political/media class came to accept that it was in fact a Ukrainian missile that had struck Poland. AP’s firing of reporter James LaPorta looks at this time to be the end point of any accountability for the circulation of this extremely dangerous falsehood. AP spokesperson Lauren Easton says no disciplinary action will be taken against the editors who waved the bogus story through, and to this day the public has been kept in the dark about the identity of the US official who fed such extremely egregious misinformation/disinformation to the public through the mainstream press. It is utterly inexcusable for AP to continue to protect the anonymity of a government official who fed them such a profoundly significant falsehood. This didn’t just affect AP staff, it affected the whole world; we deserve to know what happened and who was responsible, and AP has no business obstructing that knowledge from us. LaPorta’s firing looks like this is yet another instance where the least powerful person involved in a debacle is being made to take the fall for it. A powerful intelligence official will suffer no consequences for feeding false information to the press — thereby ensuring that it will happen again — and no disciplinary action will be taken against LaPorta’s superiors, despite the absolute buffoonery that subsequent reporting has revealed on their part.
Biden refused to talk to Zelensky after Poland missile strike: CNN - Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski requested a phone call with US President Joe Biden immediately after the news about the Poland missile strike broke but his request was rejected, CNNreported on Thursday. The American TV channel published a detailed report on what happened behind the scenes following the tragic incident.According to CNN, Zelensky contacted a White House official asking for an urgent call with the US President but his request was rejected. At that time Biden was at the G-20 Summit in Indonesia.Meanwhile, Zelensky tried to contact other Western leaders and made a statement accusing Russia of “striking a NATO country.” Instead of a call from Biden, Zelensky received a call from Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor to President Biden. CNN claims Sullivan stopped the Ukrainian president from further attempts to escalate the situation. Later Biden denied Zelensky’s claims that Russia attacked Poland and said that “Unlikely the missile was fired from Russia”.Today, the White House once again stated that they have no reason to question the statements that it was an Ukrainian missile that exploded on the territory of Poland.The missile which killed two people in Poland was identified as the 5V55 surface-to-air missile for the S-300 air defense system. However, Zelensky insisted that the missile was fired from Russia and asked NATO to intervene. Russia denied its missiles had crossed the Polish territory. Polish media published photos of the fragments, showing they belong to the 48D6 motor of the 5V55-series missile of the S-300 AD system- a Ukrainian one.
Poland’s state bank pays $2 million to US media and influencers for supporting Ukraine -- Poland has hired two US PR companies to pay journalists and influencers for a pro-Ukraine campaign in the West. According to the official statement, Poland’s state bank has hired MikeWorldWide and AMW PR for “a global campaign to inform the general public about the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine”.At the end of September, the PR company MikeWorldWide, headed by Michael W. Kempner, who, according to media reports, is linked to the Democratic Party, was tasked with boosting the Western support to Ukraine.The primary objective “is to raise awareness among at least 50 million people of the actual dimension of the war in Ukraine and the scale of the damages,” according to MikeWorldWide’s services agreement with Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego.Poland’s national bank has budgeted $3 million for the campaign. Of that amount, the company’s fee and out-of-pocket expenses are capped at $500,000 each.Spending for paid media channels (e.g., ads on Facebook, Twitter, NPR, USA Today, Spotify, Vox) is set at $1 million if the campaign reaches an audience of 40 million people.Another $1 million goes for influencers as long as 10 million people are reached.Further more, in November Poland’s state bank hired AMW PR, a top New York-based media relations company, to “pitch the refugee and humanitarian crisis brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” AMW is to work with US and Canadian journalists, producers, bloggers, and podcasters under a six-month $150,000 contract with Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego.
Europe accuses US of profiting from war – Nine months after invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is beginning to fracture the West. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer. “The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO. The explosive comments — backed in public and private by officials, diplomats and ministers elsewhere — follow mounting anger in Europe over American subsidies that threaten to wreck European industry. The Kremlin is likely to welcome the poisoning of the atmosphere among Western allies. “We are really at a historic juncture,” the senior EU official said, arguing that the double hit of trade disruption from U.S. subsidies and high energy prices risks turning public opinion against both the war effort and the transatlantic alliance. “America needs to realize that public opinion is shifting in many EU countries.” Another top official, the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell, called on Washington to respond to European concerns. “Americans — our friends — take decisions which have an economic impact on us,” he said in an interview with POLITICO. The U.S. rejected Europe's complaints. “The rise in gas prices in Europe is caused by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Putin's energy war against Europe, period," a spokesperson for Biden's National Security Council said. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. to Europe "increased dramatically and enabled Europe to diversify away from Russia," the NSC spokesperson said. The biggest point of tension in recent weeks has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal objections from Europe, Washington has so far shown no sign of backing down. At the same time, the disruption caused by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is tipping European economies into recession, with inflation rocketing and a devastating squeeze on energy supplies threatening blackouts and rationing this winter. As they attempt to reduce their reliance on Russian energy, EU countries are turning to gas from the U.S. instead — but the price Europeans pay is almost four times as high as the same fuel costs in America. Then there’s the likely surge in orders for American-made military kit as European armies run short after sending weapons to Ukraine. It's all got too much for top officials in Brussels and other EU capitals. French President Emmanuel Macron said high U.S. gas prices were not “friendly” and Germany’s economy minister has called on Washington to show more “solidarity” and help reduce energy costs. Ministers and diplomats based elsewhere in the bloc voiced frustration at the way Biden’s government simply ignores the impact of its domestic economic policies on European allies. When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. Other EU officials and diplomats agreed that American ignorance about the consequences for Europe was a major problem. "The Europeans are discernibly frustrated about the lack of prior information and consultation," said David Kleimann of the Bruegel think tank. Officials on both sides of the Atlantic recognize the risks that the increasingly toxic atmosphere will have for the Western alliance. The bickering is exactly what Putin would wish for, EU and U.S. diplomats agreed. The growing dispute over Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — a huge tax, climate and health care package — has put fears over a transatlantic trade war high on the political agenda again. EU trade ministers are due to discuss their response on Friday as officials in Brussels draw up plans for an emergency war chest of subsidies to save European industries from collapse.
‘Western Values’ Are A Big Jerk-Off Fantasy: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – Caitlin Johnstone - It’s still funny that the entire US-controlled world has been raging at Russia all year for doing something the US does routinely.In our fucked up civilization “individualism” increasingly means having the freedom to express your uniqueness by choosing between hundreds of makes and models of automobile while thinking the exact same thoughts as everyone else about America, capitalism, and foreign policy. We are told that the individual is prioritized in our society while being funneled through various conformity manufacturing plants like school and mass media consumption. Real individuality is stomped out and replaced with prostheses of mindless consumption and partisan thought.Real individualism would encourage radical individuality and divergence from orthodoxies. The so-called liberal democracies of the western world do the exact opposite, hammering us into authorized power-serving perspectives and herding us into mainstream partisan echo chambers.“I’m sure glad I don’t live in an oppressive homogeneous nation like China where individuality is not allowed,” said every westerner in unison while staring at their programming screens.The west doesn’t value anything it claims to value. We crush individuality, censor speech, brainwash with propaganda, imprison and torture dissident journalists, tyrannize, terrorize, bomb, invade, rob, oppress and exploit. “Western values” are nothing but a propaganda construct. A giant jerk-off fantasy.
Marjorie Taylor Greene announces resolution to audit Ukraine aid funds – POLITICO (video)
Taliban in Afghanistan received $7.1 billion in U.S. weapons - The Taliban in Afghanistan received $7.1 billion in US weapons after the American withdrawal in 2021. A new US DoD report reveals that the military aid for Afghanistan has never been properly categorized by the Pentagon, meaning the U.S. military has no idea how many weapons it “inadvertently” left to the Taliban when they left the country last year.According to a new report by the Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan (SIGAR), the U.S. military provided only “limited, inaccurate and untimely information about the weapons it left behind.”The report estimates that $7.1 billion worth of military equipment was left in Afghanistan which was previously supplied to the Government of Afghanistan and to the Afghan National Defense and Security Force (ANDSF). Since 2009, SIGAR and the Office of the Inspector General have warned about accountability gaps and tracking problems in Afghanistan.The report states that the Pentagon “did not meet its own requirements for overseeing sensitive equipment and did not inventory 60 % of defense items with enhanced monitoring requirements — those containing sensitive technology — between May 2019 and April 2020 due to security restrictions and travel restrictions.” In other words, the U.S. government doesn’t really know which equipment or how much of it was left in Afghanistan, but it cost at least $7.1 billion.An August DoD report says that at the time the Taliban took power, ANDSF had in its stockpile about 316,000 small arms supplied by the United States since 2005.This report also notes longstanding and well-known issues with the invertarization management system used to catalog stocks at bases in Afghanistan, including a chaotic Microsoft Excel spreadsheet system and even handwritten inventories used to circumvent the problem. Many of the bases either did not have access to the Internet or electricity.SIGAR noted that at least 70 tactical vehicles (MRAP) and 80 aircraft were left behind at Hamid Karzai International Airport in August 2021 in the final weeks of the withdrawal.The U.S. withdrawal was chaotic and catastrophic, as the U.S.-backed Afghan government failed to hold on to power against the Taliban attack long enough for U.S. forces to complete their withdrawal from the country.After the Taliban seized power, the United States and much of the world cut ties with Afghanistan and refused to recognize the new government, leading to a complete collapse of Afghanistan’s already fragile economy and to humanitarian crisis.
The Pentagon Has No Idea How Much Military Equipment It Actually Left Behind In Afghanistan --It’s been more than a year since the U.S. military’s chaotic withdrawal from Kabul, and the Defense Department actually has no clear idea how much U.S.-funded military equipment fell into the Taliban’s hands in Afghanistan, according to a new report from a top government watchdog. While a previous Pentagon inspector general report in August estimated that roughly $7.12 billion in U.S.-funded military equipment was still in the inventory of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) when the central government in Kabul collapsed, a new assessment from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) revealed last week that the Pentagon “has struggled for years with accurately accounting for the equipment it provided to the ANDSF.”The lack of accurate accounting stemmed from using the Core Inventory Management System (Core IMS) despite “limitations with the utility and accuracy of that system” reported by SIGAR since at least 2008. Indeed, a 2020 DoD IG audit revealed that Core IMS was never utilized at more than half of the Afghan-maintained weapons storage sites across the country simply because they lacked consistent access to electricity or the internet.In addition, U.S. military officials concluded since at least 2014 that ANDSF personnel were “not entering information correctly into the system,” and maintained inventory records using “hard copy documents, handwritten records, and some Microsoft Excel spreadsheets,” according to the SIGAR report — the same system that created the conditions for ‘ghost soldiers,” or nonexistent personnel created solely to funnel money and equipment to (often-illicit) sources.“As a result of the issues with the Core Inventory Management System and the regularly documented issues with DoD’s ability to account for equipment provided to the Afghan government, it remains unclear whether the $7.1 billion figure reported to Congress is accurate,” according to the SIGAR assessment.Translation: the U.S. has no clear picture of how much military equipment it accidentally funneled into Taliban arsenals as the militant group swept across the country.As Task & Purpose previously reported, that $7.12 billion amount originally reported to Congress represents roughly 38% of the $18.6 billion allocated for the procurement of military equipment for the ANDSF between 2005 and 2021, according to the August DoD IG report, a total that included military aircraft, aircraft munitions, small arms, and ground vehicles including Humvees, MRAPs, and other tactical vehicles.
Pentagon fails to account for over $2.1 trillion in assets - The Pentagon has failed again to pass a financial audit, with only seven out of the 27 defense agencies receiving a passing A grade. The US Department of defense succeeded to account for only 39 % of its $3.5 trillion in assets meaning that 61 % or $2.1 trillion remain unaccounted for.The DoD chief financial officer Mike McCord told reporters that they failed again to get an A, theCradle magazine reported. The Pentagon is the only US government agency to have never passed an audit. This shows the DoD’s persistent lack of internal financial control, its poor budget estimations and overspending.The F-35 program, for instance, has exceeded its original budget by $165 billion. The Pentagon plans to buy more than 2,400 F-35s for the Air Force, Marines, and Navy. The estimated cost for procuring and operating these planes – $1.7 trillion – would make it the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons project ever, the Cradle magazine has calculated. A 2021 Pentagon assessment of the F-35 program found 800 unresolved defects in the aircraft.While the Pentagon estimates the average cost of its shipbuilding initiative to be $27 billion per year between 2023 and 2052, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) contends this, claiming that the average annual cost of the plan will be over $31 billion (exceeded by $4 billion). For 30 years this will exceed the planned budget by $120 billion.These practices have boosted the profits of US arms makers like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman, with major gains made despite the challenges posed by inflation and supply chain issues caused by the pandemic, the magazine claims.The US government is expected to reach a $1 trillion defense budget by 2027 since the White House has already increased the Pentagon budget to $ 773 billion for the next fiscal year. The money is needed for the Pentagon to replenish the US military stockpiles which, according to US media reports, have been depleted in recent months due to the military aid provided to Ukraine.
North Korea launches ICBM with range to hit anywhere in U.S., Japan says - North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile that landed near Japanese waters Friday in its second major weapons test this month, South Korea and Japan said. The missile had the potential to reach all of the U.S. mainland, according to Japan's defense minister. The United States quickly condemned the launch and vowed to take "all necessary measures" to guarantee the safety of its own mainland and of allies South Korea and Japan. At the regional APEC summit in Bangkok, Thailand, Vice President Kamala Harris called Friday's launch a "brazen violation of multiple U.N. Security resolutions" that "destabilizes security in the region, and unnecessarily raises tensions. We strongly condemn these actions and we again call for North Korea to stop further unlawful, destabilizing acts. On behalf of the United States, I reaffirm our ironclad commitment to our Indo-Pacific alliances. "Together, the countries represented here will continue to urge North Korea to commit to serious and sustained diplomacy," she continued. Later Friday, South Korea's military said its F-35 fighter jets conducted drills simulating aerial strikes on North Korean mobile missile launchers. The drill took place at a firing range near its land border with the North. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said eight South Korean and U.S. fighter jets separately performed flight training off the Korean Peninsula's east coast. The exercises "showed we have a strong resolve to sternly deal with an ICBM launch and any other provocations and threats posed by North Korea, and the allies' overwhelming capacity and readiness to launch precision strikes on the enemy," the Joint Chiefs said in a statement. Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Ryabkov, on the other hand, was quoted by the state-run RIA Novosti news agency as saying that that while Moscow prefers a diplomatic approach toward the Korean peninsula, "it's been particularly evident recently that the United States and its allies in the region prefer a different path. It's as if Pyongyang's patience is being tested." Agence France-Presse reported on Moscow's reaction. Pyongyang's ongoing torrid run of weapons tests seeks to advance its nuclear arsenal and win greater concessions in eventual diplomacy, and the launches come as China and Russia have opposed U.S. moves to toughen sanctions aimed at curbing the North's nuclear program. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected the ICBM launch from North Korea's capital region around 10:15 a.m. and the weapon flew toward the North's eastern coast across the country. Japan said the ICBM appeared to have flown on a high trajectory and landed west of Hokkaido. According to South Korean and Japanese estimates, the North Korean missile flew about 3,600-3,790 miles at a maximum altitude of 620 miles. Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada told reporters the altitude suggests the missile was launched on a high angle. He said depending on the weight of a warhead placed on the missile, the weapon has a range exceeding 9,320 miles, "in which case it could cover the entire mainland United States."
US flies supersonic bombers in response to North Korea's new ICBM launch - The U.S. military on Saturday responded to recent missile launches from North Korea by flying two supersonic bombers alongside South Korean and Japanese warplanes. North Korea on Friday drew international ire after it test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile capable (ICBM) of carrying multiple nuclear warheads and with a range that could reach anywhere on the U.S.’s mainland.The U.S. and its regional allies condemned the move and accused Pyongyang of attempting to destabilize the region as it looks to bolster its nuclear program and gain geopolitical prowess though its military advancements. In this photo provided by South Korean Defense Ministry, two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers, top center, South Korean Air Force F-35 fighter jets and US Air Force F-16 fighter jets, bottom left, fly over South Korea Peninsula during a joint air drill in South Korea, Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly watched the launch of the ICMB on Friday with his wife and "beloved daughter" in what some saw as a sign of his growing confidence in Pyongyang’s abilities to take on top militaries, like the U.S.’s armed forces. The U.S. deployed B-1B supersonic bombers in joint drills over South Korea earlier this month for the first time in five years after North Korea had ramped up its missile testing and overt aggression in the region.The B-1B – which reportedly irks Kim over its ability to deliver a massive payload of conventional guided and unguided weapons – has been dubbed the "backbone" of the U.S.’s bomber force according to a statement by the U.S. Air Force."It can rapidly deliver massive quantities of precision and non-precision weapons against any adversary, anywhere in the world, at any time," the statement said. Adding that its "low-radar cross-section" allows the bomber to form "an integrated, robust defense system that supports penetration of hostile airspace."
Kim Jong Un's sister warns U.S. of 'a more fatal security crisis' – — The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned the United States on Tuesday that it would face “a more fatal security crisis” as Washington pushes for U.N. condemnation of the North’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile test. Kim Yo Jong’s warning came hours after U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council that the U.S. will circulate a proposed presidential statement condemning North Korea’s banned missile launches and other destabilizing activities. After the meeting, Thomas-Greenfield also read a statement by 14 countries which supported action to limit North Korea’s advancement of its weapons programs. Kim Yo Jong, who is widely considered North Korea’s second most powerful person after her brother, lambasted the United States for issuing what she called “a disgusting joint statement together with such rabbles as Britain, France, Australia, Japan and South Korea.” Kim compared the United States to “a barking dog seized with fear.” She said North Korea would consider the U.S.-led statement “a wanton violation of our sovereignty and a grave political provocation.” “The U.S. should be mindful that no matter how desperately it may seek to disarm (North Korea), it can never deprive (North Korea) of its right to self-defense and that the more hell-bent it gets on the anti-(North Korea) acts, it will face a more fatal security crisis,” she said in a statement carried by state media. Monday’s U.N. Security Council meeting was convened in response to North Korea’s ICBM launch on Friday, which was part of a provocative run of missile tests this year that experts say is designed to modernize its nuclear arsenal and increase its leverage in future diplomacy. Friday’s test involved its most powerful Hwasong-17 missile, and some experts say the successful steep-angle launch proved its potential to strike anywhere in the U.S. mainland if it’s fired at a standard trajectory. During the Security Council meeting, the United States and its allies strongly criticized the ICBM launch and called for action to limit North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. But Russia and China, both veto-wielding members of the Security Council, opposed any new pressure and sanctions on North Korea. In May, the two countries vetoed a U.S.-led attempt to toughen sanctions on North Korea over its earlier ballistic missile tests, which are prohibited by U.N. Security Council resolutions. North Korea has said its testing activities are legitimate exercises of its right to self-defense in response to regular military drills between the United States and South Korea which it views as an invasion rehearsal. Washington and Seoul officials say the exercises are defensive in nature.
US continues to inflame tensions on Korean Peninsula - The US is continuing to ramp up tensions in Northeast Asia following North Korea’s launch last week of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Washington intends to exploit the situation to further demonize China and Russia and justify its rapidly expanding militarization of the Indo-Pacific region. On Monday, the 15-member UN Security Council met in New York at Washington’s insistence, which used the platform to denounce Beijing and Moscow while proposing further measures to isolate Pyongyang. In addition to the five permanent and 10 non-permanent members, South Korea, which is not among the latter, also participated in the meeting. The US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, called for the council to pass a formal presidential statement condemning Pyongyang, a draft of which a spokesperson for the US mission said would be presented soon. After the meeting, 14 countries led by the US, including eight Security Council members, issued their own joint statement condemning the latest missile launch as an “unequivocal threat to international peace and security.” During the meeting, Thomas-Greenfield referred to Beijing and Moscow, claiming that the “two veto-wielding members of the council are enabling and emboldening the DPRK [North Korea].” She continued, “They have allowed the regime to launch this latest reckless missile test, which endangered the lives of Japanese civilians and needlessly raises tensions in the region. These two members’ blatant obstructionism put the Northeast Asian region and the entire world at risk.” North Korea launched what is reported to be a Hwasŏng-17 ICBM last Friday with Japan claiming it landed in its exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan, west of Hokkaido. According to Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada, the missile, fired on a lofted trajectory, had the potential to strike the US mainland. In recent weeks, Washington has been increasingly goading North Korea into taking bellicose actions as a means of putting pressure on Russia, and in particular, China. The US is now seizing on the launch to step up military exercises while pushing the lie that Beijing and Moscow are ultimately responsible for unilaterally upending the “rule of law” around the world. US State Department Deputy Spokesman Vedant Patel said last Friday that China “has a responsibility to make clear to the DPRK that Pyongyang should not engage in unlawful nuclear or ballistic missile tests.” In response, China’s UN ambassador Zhang Jun stated Monday, “All parties should remain calm, exercise restraint, act and speak with caution, and avoid any actions that may escalate tensions and lead to miscalculations so as to prevent the situation from falling into a vicious cycle.” He called on Washington to take the initiative to “positively respond to the legitimate concerns of the DPRK” over security. Having witnessed numerous US regime-change operations in countries like Iraq and Libya, Pyongyang legitimately fears falling victim to similar imperialist machinations.
US-China Backchannel Forum To Halt "Downward Trajectory" In Ties Revealed -A significant and unexpected new Wall Street Journal report has revealed that a few days prior to the Xi-Biden meeting last week at the G20 summit in Bali, the two countries embarked upon a private back-channel dialogue of top policy advisers and business executives in New York, which was approved by both governments. The meeting was described by Retired Adm. Mike Mullen as seeking to prevent the continued "downward trajectory" in US-China relations "at a dangerous time." Beijing is relying on an American businessman described as an "old friend of China" with a long successful track record of positive dealings in China: insurance executive Maurice "Hank" Greenberg. "As the two great powers of the time, we need to try to turn this around," Mullen commented of the closed-door talks earlier this month. The 97-year old Greenberg, chief executive of insurance and investment firm C.V. Starr & Co. and former CEO of insurance giant American International Group Inc., is seen from Beijing as a trusted American intermediary symbolizing a time of better, more pragmatic-oriented business and trade policies between the two economic superpowers. The WSJ underscores that a Chinese delegation of this caliber hasn't come to the US for dialogue since before the coronavirus pandemic. Greenberg has long been vocal as being in favor of deepened US engagement with China, having penned a July op-ed in the Journal arguing toward that end. In the piece, he called for renewed efforts to "re-establish a constructive bilateral dialogue."That's when, per sources cited in the report, "Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to Washington and a career diplomat deeply trusted by Mr. Xi, brought the piece to the Chinese leadership’s attention," and the delegation was readied to go to New York."Mr. Xi then greenlighted the Foreign Ministry to form a group that mirrored the one set up by Mr. Greenberg, which is made up of former senior officials and business leaders."According to details of the meeting which was viewed by both sides as an sidetrack initiative corresponding to the first face-to-face meeting with Xi of the Biden presidency:The Chinese and U.S. groups held discussions at C.V. Starr’s headquarters on Park Avenue on Nov. 10 and the next day, with 13 members from each side participating. Among the Americans, according to the people, are Mr. Greenberg, Paul Fribourg, CEO of agribusiness ContiGroup Cos., former U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman and two former U.S. ambassadors to Beijing: Max Baucus, a former Democratic senator from Montana, and Terry Branstad, the former Republican governor of Iowa.
Why artificial intelligence is now a primary concern for Henry Kissinger - Henry Kissinger spent much of his career thinking about the dangers of nuclear weapons. But at 99, the former secretary of state says he has become “obsessed” with a very modern concern — how to limit the potential destructive capabilities of artificial intelligence, whose powers could be far more devastating than even the biggest bomb.Kissinger described AI as the new frontier of arms control during a forum at Washington National Cathedral on Nov. 16. If leading powers don’t find ways to limit AI’s reach, he said, “it is simply a mad race for some catastrophe.”The warning from Kissinger, one of the world’s most prominent statesmen and strategists, is a sign of the growing global concern about the power of “thinking machines” as they interact with global business, finance and warfare. He spoke by video connection at a cathedral forum titled “Man, Machine, and God,” which was this year’s topic in the annual Nancy and Paul Ignatius Program, named in honor of my parents.Kissinger’s concerns about AI were echoed by two other panelists: Eric Schmidt, former chief executive of Google and chairman of the congressionally appointed National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, which issued its report last year; and Anne Neuberger, the Biden administration’s deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology.The former secretary of state cautioned that AI systems could transform warfare just as they have chess or other games of strategy — because they are capable of making moves that no human would consider but that have devastatingly effective consequences. “What I’m talking about is that in exploring legitimate questions that we ask them, they come to conclusions that would not necessarily be the same as we — and we will have to live in their world,” Kissinger said.“We are surrounded by many machines whose real thinking we may not know,” he continued. “How do you build restraints into machines? Even today we have fighter planes that can fight … air battles without any human intervention. But these are just the beginnings of this process. It is the elaboration 50 years down the road that will be mind-boggling.”Kissinger called on the leaders of the United States and China, the world’s tech giants, to begin an urgent dialogue about how to apply ethical limits and standards for AI.
Kevin McCarthy Plans To Oust Ilhan Omar From House Committee For "Anti-Semitic" Comments - House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said on Saturday that when he becomes speaker of the House next year he will remove Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) from the House Foreign Affairs Committee because of her remarks that many deemed anti-Semitic.“We watch anti-Semitism grow, not just on our campuses, but we watched it grow in the halls of Congress,” McCarthy said at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual leadership meeting in Las Vegas on Saturday.“I promised you last year that as speaker, she [Omar] will no longer be on Foreign Affairs, and I’m keeping that promise,” he told a cheering audience.Omar, a Muslim immigrant of Somali descent, has been condemned for her remarks on the U.S.–Israel relationship several times in recent years, including by the leadership of her own party. In 2019, the first-term congresswoman wrote on Twitter that the U.S. support of Israel is “all about the Benjamins.” This prompted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and other Democrats to issue a joint statement, saying that the comment invoked a long-standing anti-Semitic trope and was “deeply offensive.”President Donald Trump also weighed in at that time to call for Omar’s expulsion.“Anti-Semitism has no place in the United States Congress,” Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.“And I think she should either resign from Congress or she should certainly resign from the House Foreign Affairs Committee.” This isn’t the first time McCarthy has said he wants to expel Omar from her committee assignment. In an interview with Breitbart in January, he said he was planning to oust Reps. Omar, Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) from their respective committees if Republicans secure a majority in the House after the midterms.“Ilhan Omar should not be serving on Foreign Affairs,” McCarthy said at that time. “You had Ilhan Omar, who earlier referred to my support for Israel in an earlier Congress was ‘all about the Benjamins’ and never apologized.”McCarthy argued that the two Californian Democrats shouldn’t stay on the House Intelligence Committee, either. He pointed to Swalwell’s affair with an alleged Chinese Communist Party spy, and the role Schiff played in promoting the false assertion that the Trump campaign had colluded with Russia during the 2016 election.
Treasury Department releases guidelines for Russian oil transport ahead of planned price cap - The Treasury Department issued new guidance Tuesday about policies on the maritime transport of Russian oil ahead of a planned price cap in early December.The guidance, which complements the U.K.'s newly-released policies, outlines how U.S. service providers can continue carrying Russian seaborne oil that was loaded before Dec. 5, while complying with a strategic price capon that oil devised by the G7 countries, the E.U. and Australia. That so-called Price Gap Coalition is aiming to deprive Russia of a funding source to continue its war against Ukraine.A senior Treasury official told reporters Tuesday that the department expects other coalition countries to release similar guidance in the coming days in order to implement the price gap policy."We're taking these steps to make it as easy as possible for market participants to implement the price cap policy as of Dec. 5 consistent with the coalition's goals of allowing Russians to keep foreign oil (in) flow while lowering the Kremlin's revenues," the official said.Shipping and customs brokering are among several services covered under an executive order addressing the transport of Russian oil by sea. The guidance says service providers will not be financially penalized for the transport of crude oil of Russian origin loaded and shipped prior to 12:01 a.m. ET on Dec. 5 and unloaded at the destination port prior to 12:01 a.m. ET on Jan. 19.The guidance also outlines a "safe harbor" from enforcement for providers who follow a recordkeeping and attestation process showing the oil was purchased at or below the price cap.Russian oil imports are banned from the U.S. under the policy, which takes effect Dec. 5.Treasury officials said they have already seen evidence of the redirection of the product from U.S. and European markets, which are no longer in the market for Russian oil.
Biden Requests $500MM for Strategic Petroleum Reserve --In a letter outlining President Biden’s request for 2023 emergency supplemental funding “for critical assistance to Ukraine and critical response activities to address Covid-19”, a sum of $500 million has been earmarked for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). “This request would provide the Department of Energy, Energy Security and Infrastructure Modernization Fund account $500 million for modernization activities of the four Strategic Petroleum Reserve sites,” the letter, which was sent from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, stated. “The proposal would allow the SPR to both maintain operational readiness levels and also alleviate anticipated shortfalls due to supply chain issues, the Covid-19 pandemic, and related schedule delays,” the letter added. In the letter, which was sent last week, OMB Director Shalanda Young said the Biden administration looked forward to continued engagement with members of both parties to reach a comprehensive, bipartisan agreement to fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year and invest in critical national priorities before the December 16 funding deadline. “As part of that process, the Congress has an opportunity and obligation to address three additional and critical funding needs that should earn bipartisan support: protecting the American people from Covid-19 and saving lives globally; supporting the people of Ukraine; and helping communities across the Nation recover from devastating natural disasters,” Young stated in the letter. Earlier this month, the DOE announced that contracts had been awarded for the purchase of crude oil from the SPR following a notice of sale announced on October 18. These contract awards completed Biden’s announcement on March 31 to release 180 million barrels of crude oil “to address the significant global supply disruption caused by Putin’s war on Ukraine, act as a wartime bridge for domestic production to increase, and aid in lowering energy costs for American families”, the DOE noted.A total of 12 companies responded to the notice, submitting 110 bids. Contracts were awarded to the following companies:
- Equinor Marketing & Trading 1.750 million barrels
- Macquarie Commodities Trading US LLC 1.850 million barrels
- Marathon Petroleum Supply and Trading LLC 2.950 million barrels
- Phillips 66 Company 0.350 million barrels
- Shell Trading (US) Company 0.700 million barrels
- Valero Marketing and Supply Company 7.450 million barrels
Biden gives Chevron permit to restart Venezuelan oil sales - The Treasury Department granted permission Saturday for oil giant Chevron to produce and export oil from Venezuela following the South American country’s decision to restart talks with opposition groups. The move could add supply to the global oil market, which may ease fuel prices and speed the declines in U.S. gasoline prices that have been a political burden for President Joe Biden since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. But a senior administration official said the easing of sanctions was not driven by the oil market pressures and was instead a response the Venezuelan regime’s decision this week to participate in the negotiations with opposition groups. Those talks, which were originally launched in Mexico City in September 2021, are expected to focus on humanitarian programs and setting future elections. “This action is not being taken in response to energy prices, this is a limited license. As we have said in the past, this is about the regime taking the steps needed to support the restoration of democracy in Venezuela,” the official said. The oil supplies affected under the new license would have likely have gotten to customers via the black market, the official said. The decision to allow Chevron to resume shipments from the South American nation comes ahead of a Dec. 5 deadline for tightened sanctions on Russia that could roil the world’s oil markets. The G-7 and European Union are moving to restrict Russian petroleum exports and impose a price cap on petroleum sales. Under the expanded license issued by Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the Venezuelan state oil company, PdVSA, is prohibited from receiving profits from the oil sales generated by its joint venture with Chevron. It keeps in place broader sanctions on PdVSA. The moves by Venezuela’s Maduro regime to restart talks with the opposition “are important steps in the right direction to restore democracy in the country,” Treasury said, which the U.S. welcomes “as part of our longstanding policy to support the peaceful restoration of democracy, free and fair elections, and respect for the rights and freedoms of Venezuelans.” Venezuela sits on some of the biggest oil reserves in the world, but mismanagement of the oil sector by the government and sanctions imposed by the U.S. has sharply cut its exports.
Sustainability Democrats propose narrow permitting reform effort on electric grid, community involvement - A group of House Democrats that are part of a sustainability coalition on Monday put forward a narrow proposal on permitting reform amid broader talks on how to reshape the country’s energy approval process. The new policy brief released by leaders of the House Sustainable Energy & Environment Coalition (SEEC) narrowly focuses on bolstering the country’s electricity infrastructure and community involvement in energy project assessments. “This policy brief breaks down some of the key legislative solutions that Congress should take up when considering reforming our laws to build a clean energy future,” the brief’s introduction reads. The permitting reform negotiations are complex as large swaths of Democrats and Republicans would have to be on board on a set of issues where the two parties remain far apart. Some of SEEC’s leaders, including co-chair Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) and vice chairs Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.), and Donald McEachin (D-Va.) were part of a large coalition of Democrats who expressed opposition to Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) permitting reform push
Speeding up clean energy build-out could lessen the impacts of related emissions: study -Building green energy facilities may generate substantial carbon emissions, but speedy construction could negate most of these negative effects, a new study has found.The construction of wind turbines, solar panels and other infrastructure comes with a price: consumption of the same fossil fuels that they are replacing, the study authors wrote.But a rapid scale-up of these technologies could help emissions dramatically decrease, according to the research, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.With more renewable energy powering the grid early on, fewer fossil fuels would be powering the clean energy changeover, the scientists found.“The message is that it is going to take energy to rebuild the global energy system, and we need to account for that,” lead author Corey Lesk, who conducted the research as a Ph.D. student at the Columbia Climate School, said in a statement. “Any way you do it, it’s not negligible,” Lesk continued. “But the more you can initially bring on renewables, the more you can power the transition with renewables.”Lesk and his colleagues drew their conclusions by calculating the potential emissions generated by energy use in mining, manufacturing, transporting and building solar farms, wind turbines and the more limited infrastructure required for geothermal and other power sources.Previous studies have projected that the cost of such new infrastructure would amount to about $3.5 trillion annually until 2050 to reach net-zero emissions, or about $14 trillion total for the U.S., the researchers noted.But Monday’s study, they explained, is the first to forecast this cost in greenhouse gasses. If the current slow pace of renewable infrastructure production persists — leading to about 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming by 2100 — these activities would generate 185 billion tons of carbon dioxide within the same time frame, according to the study. This amount would be equivalent to about five or six years of current global emissions, the authors explained. But countries could cut those emissions in half, to 95 billion tons, if they built the same infrastructure quickly enough to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the scientists found.
Republicans will soon control the House. Is a repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act likely? - Advocates of renewable energy began the 2022 election season with an unprecedented wave of optimism. The Inflation Reduction Act promised, at long last, to end the boom-and-bust cycle of fluctuating demand for renewable energy based on tax credit expiration dates and to bring long-term stability to wind and solar development.Enter the midterms and candidate promises to repeal the Democrats' “latest price-hike bill ... on DAY ONE.” After passing without a single Republican vote, the Inflation Reduction Act has become, according to campaign rhetoric, the latest threat to the American way of life.If it seems like we’ve seen this show before, it’s because we have. When the Affordable Care Act became law in early 2010, it, too, was quick to draw starkly partisan responses: praise from supporters who saw it ushering in a transformation of American health care and vows from detractors to bring a quick end to this latest affront to personal freedom. What followed was a years-long battle with about 8 million to 10 million Americans’ access to heath insurance hanging in the balance each election cycle.The renewable energy industry is accustomed to this political roller coaster. For some who felt the IRA might be too good to be true, the potential for a drawn-out political battle seemed likely. Legal and political experts — including some whose experience includes the ACA itself — say a complete repeal of the IRA seems unlikely. But that won’t prevent it from remaining the subject of political rhetoric for years to come, they say, even as renewable energy advocates renew calls for policy stability.The scale, significance and partisan nature of the Inflation Reduction Act closely mirror the Affordable Care Act, and the similarities mean that stakeholders — and politicians on Capitol Hill — can draw some lessons from the Republican Party’s unsuccessful attempt to overturn the health care reform law, according to Michael Strazzella, an attorney who has studied the Affordable Care Act case as the federal government relations practice leader at Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney. Strazzella believes Republicans will spend the next two years scrutinizing and attacking the IRA. However, he thinks it’s unlikely they’ll overturn the law entirely. Like the ACA, certain provisions of the IRA are popular with the Republican base, and they’re likely to become even more popular among residents of conservative communities where manufacturing expansions and job growth are set to take place. This will make eliminating the IRA politically tricky.
House GOP expected to eliminate climate crisis committee - Republicans are expected to eliminate the House’s Select Committee on the Climate Crisis when they retake power in the lower chamber next year. “We don’t see a scenario where the ‘Climate Crisis Committee,’ a creature of Pelosi, will continue to exist,” the office of Rep. Garret Graves (La.), the top Republican on the panel, said in a statement to The Hill, referring to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). “Garret is committed to delivering on the energy components of the Commitment to America and will be intimately involved in making sure that happens,” the statement continued, referring to a GOP policy plan. That plan includes bolstering oil and gas, mining and hydropower. Graves told Bloomberg, which first reported on the committee’s likely demise, “The climate crisis committee will not exist.” “I don’t think that’s really consistent with what we are going to be focused on,” he added. Pelosi instituted the panel when Democrats took power in 2019. Previously, Democrats created a Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, which was also disbanded by Republicans in 2011. Current chairwoman Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) released a statement criticizing her Republican counterparts. “House Republicans ignore the climate crisis to the detriment of America,” Castor said. “Republicans seem eager to go down a path of increasing sweltering hot days, gutting clean air protections, padding the profits of Big Oil, and refusing to take a serious look at the cost-cutting potential of clean energy.
John Kerry tests positive for Covid-19 at COP27 as negotiations head into overtime | CNN -With just hours left to go to reach an international climate agreement, US climate envoy John Kerry has tested positive for Covid-19 at the United Nations’ COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, his spokesperson Whitney Smith said.Smith said in a statement that Kerry is “experiencing mild symptoms” and self-isolating at the summit. As the talks hit a critical stretch, he is “working with his negotiations team and foreign counterparts by phone to ensure a successful outcome of COP27.”It is bad timing for the chief US climate negotiator to fall ill; the final Friday at the annual summit is always crunch time for negotiators to reach a deal that nearly 200 nations can agree to. But this year the issues are particularly thorny – the US represents a major holdout on the critical issue of a loss and damage fund, which would help the world’s developing and most vulnerable countries recover from climate disasters they did little to cause.Loss and damage is not the only outstanding issue. World leaders at COP27 are also frantically trying to hash out a deal that would safeguard the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.Just hours before the Sharm el-Sheikh summit was officially due to end on Friday – and as the conference venue was being dismantled around negotiators – this year’s COP president Sameh Shoukry said he was “concerned” by the summit’s lack of progress so far.“I remain concerned at the number of outstanding issues including on finance, mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage and their inter-linkages,” Shoukry told the conference.“Today, we need to shift gears again. Time is not on our side,” he added.The Egyptian COP presidency has taken a relaxed approach to Covid-19 at the conference. The organizers did not require participants to be vaccinated or show a negative Covid-19 test when registering, although they “strongly recommended” that attendees be up-to-date with their vaccinations before arriving.Masks, too, were wholly optional and rare to spot inside the venue – although the number of people wearing them increased noticeably over the past few days.As the number of people who tested positive grew and the news of a potential outbreak started to spread, more attendees began to mask up. Still, even on Friday, as news of Kerry’s positive test broke, most people remained without masks.
Biden administration announces push to improve COVID booster uptake -The Biden administration yesterday announced the details of a 6-week sprint designed to expand use of the updated COVID-19 booster shot by the end of the year, focusing on older people and those at highest risk.The bivalent booster vaccines were approved for emergency use in early September, and but so far, uptake has been low. So far, just over 11% of eligible people ages 5 and older have received the new booster, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).At a White House press briefing yesterday, the two top federal health officials leading the nation's COVID response detailed the plans and give their assessments of the months ahead.The event marked the last public briefing by Tony Fauci, MD, chief White House medical advisor, who announced his retirement from government after serving as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for 38 years. Fauci has advised seven presidents and has played a key role in helping the United States navigate several infectious disease threats.Fauci reiterated the vaccine's good safety profile and emphasized new clinical data on efficacy,released yesterday by the CDC in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (see related CIDRAP story). He said his final message from the podium is, "please for your own safety, for that of your family, get your updated COVID shot as soon as you are eligible."At the briefing, Ashish Jha, MD, White House COVID-19 coordinator, said health officials are encouraged by progress with COVID booster uptake. Of 35 million who have gotten their booster shots, 16 million were seniors. About 4 million to 5 million people are getting vaccinated each week, which he said is consistent. However, Jha added that the nation is heading into a higher risk period. Fauci told reporters that officials can't definitively predict if the nation will see another large surge, but he said high levels of immunity from vaccines or earlier infection could help avoid large increases in hospitalizations. He referenced Singapore's recent experience with the Omicron XBB subvariant, which resulted in another wave of infections, but didn't have a serious impact on hospitalizations.
Watch: Biden COVID Minion Tells Americans "God Gave Us Two Arms" For Multiple Vaccines - Joe Biden’s COVID ‘czar’ declared Tuesday during a White House press briefing that “God gave you two arms” so we can all be injected with different vaccines. Dr. Ashish Jha made the statement while simultaneously pushing COVID booster shots and flu shots as if they are the same thing.“Get one in each arm if you want,” Jha proclaimed.Watch:NOW - "God gave you two arms" to get your COVID and flu shot, says the White House COVID Response Director.pic.twitter.com/UAzSfdYJkB The COVID shot contains experimental mRNA. Most people have many times greater protection from having had the virus and recovered, whereas the flu shot is a traditional vaccine backed by years of research and data.To lump these two vaccines together in a 2 for 1 type campaign is at best disingenuous.It isn’t the first time Jha has made the “God gave you two arms” comment, he also used it back in September, noting that he “really believes” that is why humans have two arms:
Dr. Fauci raised questions about the origins of Covid in a chaotic final briefing - Dr. Anthony Fauci was hit with questions about the origins of the coronavirus during his latest briefing as the country’s top infectious disease expert. Fauci, 81, who retires next month as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), delivered his final message after 54 years of public service. “My message – and my last message, perhaps the last message I will give you from this podium – is that for your own safety, for that of your family, you will get your updated Covid-19 shot as soon as you are eligible to protect yourself, your family and your community,” Fauci said Tuesday from the White House briefing room. Fauci also advised Americans to get tested before gathering with family members for the Thanksgiving holiday. “If we get together at a family gathering for Thanksgiving or before Christmas, or for some other holiday as we head into winter, it makes sense that you might want to take a test that day before you go to a place where you could be infected and either other people spread,” he said. Following his post, Fauci was bombarded with politically charged questions from reporters about the coronavirus. Daily Caller reporter Diana Glebova tried to ask Fauci what he has been doing to investigate the origin of the virus, but was cut off by White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. “We have a process here. I don’t call on people who shout. And you are… disrespectful to your colleagues and you are disrespectful to our guest,’ Jean-Pierre said. “I won’t come to your place if you yell, and you’re also taking time off because Dr. Fauci has to leave in a few minutes.” Glebova spoke again, but Jean-Pierre said she was “done” and would not “go back and forth” with her. Then journalist Simon Ateba of Today News Africa vouched for Glebova. “You need to call people across the room,” Ateba said. “She has a valid question, she was asked about the origin of Covid.” Jean-Pierre said to Ateba, “It’s not your turn.” “I hear your question, but we’re not doing this the way you want it. This is disrespectful,” said Jean Pierre. Simon, I’m done. Simon, I’m done. I’m done with you now. You take time away from your colleagues.’ It marked the end of a lonely tenure for Fauci, who was a constant presence at briefings during the pandemic and often clashed with ex-President Donald Trump over response strategy.
Unemployment assistance to millionaires soared during pandemic - Some of the nation’s wealthiest people were among the tens of millions of Americans who received unemployment checks in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. More than 19,000 people who made at least $1 million in 2020 also collected jobless assistance that year, new IRS data show. That included 4,500 people who earned between $5 million and $10 million and 229 people with eight-figure incomes or more. Millionaires received an average of $13,900 in benefits, according to the figures. Experts cited a number of reasons for the seeming anomaly, including expanded benefits approved by Congress to fend off an economic collapse amid widespread layoffs and business shutdowns. “Tens of millions of workers were thrown out of their jobs in 2020 and it was a really wide range of people — it included people who had been making really good incomes,” said Amy M. Traub, senior researcher of social insurance at the National Employment Law Project. It’s a small, though surprising, share of the nearly 30 million tax returns that reported receiving unemployment aid that year. The figures were included in a trove of data released by the IRS, though the department doesn’t say how people made enough money to put them in the top 1 percent of incomes — $591,000 in 2020 — while collecting unemployment aid in the same year. Probably some of those receiving aid had more typical earnings but were married to highly paid people with whom they filed their taxes jointly, experts speculated. It may also include small business owners made eligible for assistance for the first time that year. “A bunch of places just shut down,” said Mark Mazur, a former top Biden administration tax official. “People were told they should file for unemployment and they did, and the states generally made it pretty easy.”
Mask mandate return? HHS report wants to ‘encourage or mandate’ masking to stop long COVID - Masking and social distancing should be encouraged or even mandated once more in public in order to protect people from COVID-19 and from the possibility of suffering from "Long COVID," according to a new report from the Department of Health and Human Services.The report, commissioned by HHS and produced by research agency Coforma, calls for a broad range of government policies to help people who continue to deal with the lingering effects of COVID. Those policies include an awareness campaign, funding for long COVID support groups, financial support for students and workers, and new health benefits for COVID victims. Reinstating a mask mandate may be the most controversial recommendation in the report, which says ending that mandate in late 2021 and 2022 is making it harder for people with long COVID."The lifting of mask mandates and indifferent attitude toward masking and social distancing typical in many public and private places further isolates people with Long COVID," the report said. As a result, policymakers should "encourage or mandate policies and protocols regarding masking and social distancing in public spaces," it said.After this story ran, an HHS spokesperson stressed to Fox News Digital that language on possible new mask mandates came from participants involved in Coforma's research, and not from HHS. But the spokesperson declined to answer questions about whether HHS supports the recommendation in the study that HHS paid for, supported and publicized on its website.President Biden said in September that the "pandemic is over," but his administration has not let up on the need for funding and policies to keep fighting the virus. Last week, the White House asked Congress for another $10 billion to fight COVID, and a top HHS official said assisting people with long COVID is a long-term priority for the government. "Listening to and learning from the experiences of long COVID patients is essential to accelerating understanding and breakthroughs," said Rachel Levine, assistant secretary for health. Levine said the new HHS report is "evidence of our commitment to engaging communities to provide patient-led solutions."
Largest US rail union rejects White House-brokered tentative agreement, setting stage for historic strike - After a month of voting, on Monday morning the two largest rail unions, SMART-TD and BLET announced in a joint-statement that members of SMART-TD, the largest rail union, rejected the White House-brokered tentative agreement. The statement claimed that the BLET agreement barely passed.Together, the two unions encompass nearly half of the 115,000 railroaders in the US. While the statement did not give a full breakdown of the vote totals, it reported that members of the Transportation Division of the Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation Workers (SMART-TD) voted down the contract by a margin of 50.87 percent.Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET) members reportedly accepted the agreement by a margin of 53.5 percent in favor and 46.5 percent against, while a separate section of SMART-TD yardmaster members, numbering roughly 1,300, voted in favor of the agreement by 62 percent.In addition to SMART-TD, members of the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers (IBB), Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes (BMWED) and the Brotherhood of Railway Signalmen (BRS) have also rejected their agreements.A “cooling off” period, unilaterally agreed to by the BRS bureaucracy, is set to expire on December 5. If one union goes on strike, the rest of the rail unions have pledged to honor the picket line and shut down the entire rail network. For over three years, including through the pandemic, railroad workers have labored and died without a contract, and no pay raises. While workers have suffered, the Class I carriers and their owners have reaped billions in profits. Thousands of workers have left the industry either through attrition, injury or retirement as the carriers have implemented profit-driven scheduling systems, known as Hi-Viz and Precision Scheduled Railroading. These systems have further decimated workers’ health and home-lives. This past summer, rail workers voted by a 99.5 percent margin to strike. Since that vote, the union bureaucracies, working closely with the Biden White House and the carriers, have conspired to keep workers on the job, while trying to force through carrier-friendly agreements patterned after Biden’s Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) recommendations. These agreements do nothing to address railroaders’ demands, ensuring the continued enrichment of Wall Street. The rejection of the agreement, despite threats from carriers, Congress and the media, demonstrates the resolve of workers. Terrified at the prospect that workers might strike in less than three weeks, in a statement issued on Monday, Association of American Railroads President and CEO Ian Jefferies called on Congress to “be prepared to act and avoid a disastrous $2 billion a day hit to our economy.”Picking up where Jefferies left off, in the statement Monday announcing the vote SMART-TD President Jeremy Ferguson stressed that the rejection of the agreement does not mean a strike is inevitable and, in fact, is something he, unlike the members he claims to represent, adamantly opposes.In fact, a settlement negotiated by Ferguson, Pierce, the Biden White House, Congress and the carriers, behind the backs of workers, would not be in their best interests as evidenced by the previously negotiated tentative agreements and PEB recommendations that have been rejected.
President of largest rail union predicts congressional intervention after ‘no’ vote - Rail union leaders are increasingly grim that they’ll be able to reach a contract agreement with freight carriers before Congress has to step in. “I’m hopeful, but I doubt it’s really in the cards,” said Jeremy Ferguson, the president of SMART-Transportation Division, the country’s largest rail union, whose members voted down a tentative agreement with employers on Monday. “I’ve got a lot of issues that are outstanding; that are reasons why our guys voted it down.” Michael Baldwin, president of the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen, said Tuesday there had been no progress “whatsoever” at the bargaining table since that union rejected its tentative agreement Oct. 26. Union officials have been meeting daily with the railroads over Zoom this week, But Baldwin said discussions typically last only 15 minutes and not much is accomplished. “To be honest with you, it’s getting to a point where all we’re doing is regurgitating the same information we did in the last meeting,” Baldwin said. The “cooling-off period,” which forbids any kind of work stoppage, expires for all four unions at midnight on Dec. 9. “Something’s gotta happen by then, otherwise we’ll all walk,” Ferguson said. Amid the turmoil, Congress may be forced to intervene, however reluctant lawmakers may be. They could impose either the agreements that the unions rejected or the recommendation that a presidentially appointed board of arbitrators made over the summer — or they could just send the parties back to the table by extending the cooling off-period. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) told reporters Tuesday that if there is not a deal near the end of the current cooling-off period, Congress should try to do “exactly the same thing we did 30 years ago,” referring to April 1991 when lawmakers intervened to end a rail shutdown less than 24 hours after a strike began. At the time, Congress quickly passed legislation that President George H.W. Bush signed overnight to end the strike and establish a board to resolve remaining labor issues. In September, Sens. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) introduced legislation to force the unions to accept the arbitrators’ recommendation, but Democrats blocked it. They’ve said they’re ready to try again if the need arises. Democrats have been more hesitant to intervene, hoping instead that the two sides can reach an agreement on their own. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday that Biden’s preferred option is for the unions and freight rail companies to come to an agreement on their own. Jean-Pierre said “the president is indeed involved directly” but declined to provide specifics.
President Biden intervenes in rail talks in last-ditch effort to head off national strike - President Biden is “directly” involved in contract talks in the rail industry, following Monday’s rejection of a White House-backed deal by members of SMART-TD, the largest rail union, the White House confirmed in a press briefing Tuesday. While the White House has been intimately involved every step of the way in the process, the fact that Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre made a point of making this known shows the seriousness with which the government takes the situation. They are determined to prevent a rail strike, which Jean-Pierre described as “not acceptable.” She cynically claimed that the government’s campaign to impose a substandard deal is necessary to protect “American families” from the impact of a walkout. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg underlined this in comments to News Nation yesterday. “We’ve got to get to a solution that does not subject the American economy to the threat of a shutdown,” he said. “We don’t have enough trucks, or barges, or ships in this country to make up for the rail network.” Buttigieg declined to say whether Biden, the self-described “most pro-union president in American history,” would support railroaders if they went out on strike. “I don’t want to get into a scenario over battle lines that haven’t fully been drawn yet,” he said. “But I will say is that we certainly believe in collective bargaining.” In fact, through the veneer of “collective bargaining” with a union apparatus totally integrated with management and the state, the strategy of Biden has been to prevent a strike and impose a sellout. Meanwhile, Biden and the Democrats—together with the Republicans—have been preparing for months behind the scenes for congressional action to block a strike and unilaterally impose a deal if necessary. But railroaders have already dealt a serious blow to the public face of this campaign. The White House now finds itself in a similar situation to that which it faced two months ago, when Biden earlier personally intervened to broker a deal before the original strike deadline of September 16. The White House called negotiators from both the unions and the carriers to Washington for marathon talks, which ended only on the morning of September 15, when Biden announced a settlement from the White House Rose Garden to much fanfare. He then took a victory lap in the press, claiming that he had successfully averted a national strike. Workers, however, were livid over the deal, that was virtually identical to the unpopular recommendations from a Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) in August. The only change was the addition of three unpaid sick days per year for doctors’ appointments—up from zero—which had to be scheduled between Tuesday and Thursday, at least one month in advance. Two months of continuous delays and intimidation tactics by the union bureaucracy, who presented the vote as a “choice” between accepting the deal or having it imposed upon them by congressional injunction, failed to quell this anger. When asked, neither Jean-Pierre nor Buttigieg had any explanation yesterday for why workers rejected a deal which the White House had claimed was a major victory for workers. Workers in the 11 other rail unions hailed the contract rejection. “I’m glad that they did not fold over like the other unions. I’m rooting for them!” one worker said. A retired railroader said, “Keep fighting! I remember getting screwed by the sellout unions. At union meetings, the most famous saying was, ‘You are out of order, brother!’”
Federal judge orders US secretary of labor to respond to Will Lehman’s lawsuit - On Friday, the day after United Auto Workers presidential candidate Will Lehman filed his lawsuit to extend the voting deadline in the ongoing leadership elections, federal judge David M. Lawson entered an order requiring the US secretary of labor to respond to the case. The order instructs the federal government to take a position with regard to the issues raised by Lehman by close of business Monday.In the lawsuit, Lehman contends that the UAW is violating the democratic rights of rank-and-file union members to free and fair elections by failing to give effective notice of the election, in which only 9 percent of eligible members have voted so far, and in which there have been widespread problems with workers requesting and receiving ballots in time to vote.Lehman is requesting that the election deadlines be postponed 30 days and that effective measures can be taken to address these problems, which affect over 1 million workers and retirees eligible to vote in the election.The current secretary of labor is Marty Walsh, who was the president of the Laborers’ Union, a state representative in Massachusetts and the mayor of Boston before being appointed by President Biden to head the Department of Labor in 2021.Lawson, a judge in the US District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan, who was nominated by President Clinton in 1999, has presided since 2020 over the US government’s case against the UAW, United States v. United Auto Workers, which resulted in the consent decree and monitorship under which the current leadership elections are now taking place.In that case on Friday, Lawson entered an order titled “Order Directing Government to Appear in the Matter of William Lehman v. United Auto Workers.”In the six-page order, Lawson began by referring back to the January 29, 2021 consent decree, which was a consequence of a federal investigation that exposed rampant corruption and criminality at the highest levels of the UAW bureaucracy.The Department of Justice, which conducted the investigation, described a systemic “culture of corruption” among the UAW senior leadership, which was characterized by “unethical, greedy, and self-indulgent behavior.”
Biden extends pause on student loan payments amid legal limbo for debt cancellation - President Joe Biden on Tuesday announced an extension of the pause on federal student loan payments and interest into the first half of 2023 as his plan to cancel student debt for tens of millions of Americans remains blocked in court. The Education Department will postpone the restart of monthly student loan payments and interest until 60 days after the litigation is resolved or the administration is able to implement debt relief, whichever comes first. If the litigation is still unresolved by June 30, monthly payments will resume 60 days after that date, the department said. Monthly payments and interest for tens of millions of borrowers had been set to resume after Jan. 1. But those plans were thrown into limbo after courts earlier this month blocked Biden’s student debt relief plan in response to lawsuits by Republican state attorneys general and a conservative group. “It isn’t fair to ask tens of millions of borrowers eligible for relief to resume their student debt payments while the courts consider the lawsuit,” Biden said in a video announcing the decision. Biden said the extension of the payment pause was designed to give the Supreme Court an opportunity to hear cases on the legality of his debt relief plan during its current term. The Justice Department last week asked the Supreme Court to immediately reverse a lower court ruling and revive the debt relief program. The DOJ asked the court to take up the case if it rejects the emergency request for immediate intervention. “Republican special interests and elected officials sued to deny this relief, even to their own constituents,” Biden said. “But I’m completely confident my plan is legal. The White House had been under pressure from some Democrats and progressives to swiftly lift the cloud of uncertainty over whether payments would be resuming for borrowers in the coming weeks — especially ahead of the Georgia Senate runoff election. “The impact this extension will have in the lives of those who have been targeted by predatory student loans cannot be overstated,” NAACP President Derrick Johnson said.
White House to extend student-loan payment pause to June 30 -President Biden announced that his administration would extend the pandemic-era pause in student loan repayments through June 30 amid legal challenges to his college debt-forgiveness plan.Payments now set to resume Jan. 1 won't be required again until 60 days after court challenges to Biden's loan forgiveness plan are settled. If the litigation is not resolved by June 30, payments will resume 60 days after that, the Education Department said in a statement. A federal appeals court last week blocked the administration from carrying out Biden's plan to cancel as much as $20,000 in debt for some borrowers."I'm confident that our student debt relief plan is legal," Biden said in a tweet. "But it's on hold because Republican officials want to block it."The decision followed a ruling earlier this month from a federal judge in Texas finding the plan unlawful. The Department of Education has stopped accepting applications for loan forgiveness, thrusting millions of Americans into financial limbo.The fresh pause in loan payments would alleviate uncertainty for borrowers as the administration asks the Supreme Court to review lower-court orders preventing implementation of Biden's debt-cancellation plan, the Education Department said."We're extending the payment pause because it would be deeply unfair to ask borrowers to pay a debt that they wouldn't have to pay, were it not for the baseless lawsuits brought by Republican officials and special interests," Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said in a statement.Within the last week, White House senior staff coalesced around the idea of extending the student loan repayment pause as the challenges to the administration's decision worked their way through the court system.Aides were just waiting to run the idea past Biden after he returned from a trip to Asia and then spent the weekend celebrating his 80th birthday and his granddaughter's wedding.The freeze on student loan repayments, first adopted in March 2020 under President Donald Trump, was extended multiple times by Biden. When Biden in August unveiled his broad debt-forgiveness plan, he announced that loan repayments would resume in January.The Department of Education previously acknowledged an extension could cost several billion dollars a month but warned that payments resuming before legal challenges were resolved could lead to mass defaults.Twenty-six million borrowers previously applied for forgiveness in the weeks doing so was possible, and the Department of Education has approved forgiveness for 16 million.The timing of the announcement — ahead of the the Dec. 6 Senate runoff election in Georgia — could provide a boost to incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock as he tries to fend off Republican challenger Herschel Walker. Warnock pushed the Biden administration to forgive student debt, and the fresh payment pause could give help energize younger voters."We urge voters in Georgia, who still have a voice in the future of this fight, to VOTE," NAACP President Derrick Johnson said in a statement following Tuesday's announcement. "Student debt is still on the ballot."
Biden Extends Student Loan Repayment Freeze Until June 30 - The Biden administration has extended the payment pause on student loan bills yet again. The relief has been in place since the start of the Covid pandemic and was set to expire at the end of the year. Bloomberg reported the White House extended the student loan repayment freeze until June 30, 2023. This allows tens of millions of borrowers to skip out on payments, as restarting repayments early next year would've been messy for the administration, which has promised forgiveness. I'm confident that our student debt relief plan is legal. But it’s on hold because Republican officials want to block it.That's why @SecCardona is extending the payment pause to no later than June 30, 2023, giving the Supreme Court time to hear the case in its current term. pic.twitter.com/873CurlHFZ— President Biden (@POTUS) November 22, 2022Any restart of repayments would've unleashed a student debt default wave for millions of borrowers. "Unless the [Education] Department is allowed to provide debt relief, we anticipate there could be a historically large increase in the amount of federal student loan delinquency and defaults as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic," James Richard Kvaal, Department of Education undersecretary of education, said in a recent court filing.Biden's student loan forgiveness program calls for $10,000 cancellation of federal loans per borrower who made less than $125,000 in 2020 or 2021, which is now at the mercy of the courts.Around 16 million people have been approved for federal student loan forgiveness -- and some have already been emailed - though no debt cancellation has been completed due to litigation. Biden has asked for the Supreme Court to intervene. Currently, tens of millions of borrowers don't have to make a payment until June of next year while the Biden administration is trying to fulfill its promise to cancel debt and avert a massive default wave that would surely hurt the president's ratings ahead of the 2024 elections.
Texas Prepares Military Tanks For Southern Border After Governor Abbott Declares Invasion --Three days after Texas Governor Greg Abbott invoked the state's "Invasion Clauses" to tackle the record-setting influx of migrants illegally crossing the southern border, a new planning document obtained by Army Times and The Texas Tribune reveals Texas Military Department officials are planning to deploy a fleet of fully tracked armored personnel carriers and National Guard troops. Texas Military Department officials issued the order Thursday to the headquarters leading Operation Lone Star reveals. It detailed the deployment of ten M113 armored personnel carrier vehicles to the border. By Friday, the Texas Military Department released a statement that "aircraft flights and security efforts" will also be ramped up. "These actions are part of a larger strategy to use every available tool to fight back against the record-breaking level of illegal immigration."The Texas National Guard is taking unprecedented measures to safeguard our border and to repel and turn-back immigrants trying to cross the border illegally," the department said.Governor Abbott launched Operation Lone Star in March 2021, deploying soldiers and Texas Department of Public Safety troopers to counter the influx of illegals crossing the border while the Biden administration turned a blind eye to the migrant crisis they sparked. Fox News reporter Bill Melugin tweeted a shocking video from Eagle Pass, Texas, via drone outfitted with a thermal imaging system. He said the drone "shows a large group of migrants crossing illegally into private property early this morning [Thursday morning]."Melugin said, as reported by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, "there have been over 1,400 illegal crossings in the Del Rio sector in the last 24 hours & 69,000 since 10/1."
“Inverse” Migration: Why Are So Many US Citizens Moving to Mexico? - As life gets prohibitively expensive for many people living in the US (and other rich countries), relatively cheaper countries like Mexico are becoming increasingly attractive. But for local people the costs are growing.Between January and September of 2022, Mexico issued 8,412 Temporary Resident Cards (TRT) to US residents, 85% more than in the first three quarters of 2019, according to a Mexican government migration report. Many are choosing to live in Mexico City. Such rapid growth rates have not been seen since comparable data became available in 2010. The number of Americans receiving permanent residency during that period has also risen sharply (48%), to 5,418.But this may be just a fraction of the real number of American expats choosing to settle in Mexico. As the Mexican government has said for years, the number of Americans moving to its shores is likely far greater than the official figures suggest. According to data from the Ministry of Tourism (Sectur), over 10 million US citizens arrived as visitors through September this year, 24% more than in the same period of 2019. However, the Mexican authorities do not know exactly how many of those chose to stay.In 2020, the US State Department estimated that 1.5 million USians were living in Mexico, more than double the number a decade earlier. That was before Usians began moving to Mexico at an even faster pace.But why are so many choosing to move across the Southern border in the first place?One reason is that it is remarkably easy. Mexico is at most a four- or five-hour flight away from most US cities. It has also been one of the most welcoming countries since the COVID-19 pandemic began, having implemented fewer COVID-19 travel restrictions than just about any other country on the American continent. Nor has it introduced vaccine passports. This has made it particularly attractive to digital nomads looking for affordable destinations with few COVID-19 restrictions.Mexico is also remarkably cheap, as long as you are earning dollars, euros or some other hardish currency.“Obviously, if you can earn in dollars and spend in pesos, you can triple your income,” Marko Ayling, a content creator and writer living in Mexico City told El País. “And that is very attractive to a lot of people who have the luxury of being able to work remotely.”Unlike Mexicans in the United States, Americans can work in Mexico for up to six consecutive months on their tourist visas as long as they are paid from overseas. And, although technically not allowed, many choose to return to the US for a short period, then return to Mexico and renew their six-month period in the country, and that way continue working.But it is not just Americans that are opting to live in Mexico. In fact, Mexico is apparently now thepreferred destination for those moving abroad, beating off the likes of Indonesia, Vietnam, and even the popular expat hub Thailand. That’s according to this year’s edition of Expat Insider, an annual report published by InterNations, an expat community founded in 2007 that has been gathering data on expat/rich migrant flows and experiences for more than a decade. Among the biggest draws highlighted by the survey are ‘the ease of settling in’ and ‘finances’. Of vital import to many people choosing to move abroad are how acccessible visas are to live and work in the countries, safety, and how expensive daily life is. Mexico may have not topped the ranking in all aspects, but it still came out on top with a higher average score.
Voters who backed GOP governors helped keep the Senate blue - Democrats have ticket-splitters to thank for maintaining their hold on the Senate. New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan trampled her Republican rival, even as the state’s Republican governor, Chris Sununu, did the same to his opponent.In Nevada, voters helped Democrats seal the Senate majority by reelecting Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto even as they tossed out the sitting Democratic governor.And in Georgia, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s razor-thin race is heading into a December runoff after GOP Gov. Brian Kemp coasted to reelection.The results are enough to make it look like this year’s midterms represented a return to the old days of de-polarized statewide politics, when large numbers of voters would support one party’s candidate for Senate and the other party for governor.But it was actually the opposite. A POLITICO analysis of the results shows that ticket-splitting in those races declined to the lowest point of any midterm since at least 1990.Yet the relatively few voters who did split their tickets helped tip the Senate. Their decisions are a collective rebuke of Republicans’ Senate nominees, particularly those endorsed by former President Donald Trump who embraced his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.“In historical terms it may be low, but [ticket-splitting] was absolutely critical in numerous races this fall,” Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster for more than 30 years, said in an interview. “Voters made a lot of judgments about the quality of candidates nominated, and that’s why Democrats still control the Senate.”
AOC Targets Boebert, GOP over Gay Nightclub Shooting Attack in Colorado - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) took to social media Sunday to politicize Saturday night’s shooting at a gay nightclub in Colorado Springs that left five people dead and dozens of others injured.After Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) sent out a tweet condemning the violence and expressing that the victims and their families were in her prayers, Ocasio-Cortez levied an attack on her colleague, suggesting she deserved blame for the attack.The news out of Colorado Springs is absolutely awful.This morning the victims & their families are in my prayers.This lawless violence needs to end and end quickly.— Lauren Boebert (@laurenboebert) November 20, 2022 Lauren Boebert, “you have played a major role in elevating anti-LBGT+ hate rhetoric and anti-trans lies while spending your time in Congress blocking even the most common sense gun safety laws,” wrote the far-left New York congresswoman.“You don’t get to ‘thoughts and prayers’ your way out of this. Look inward and change,” AOC added. Ocasio-Cortez then posted a screenshot of the tweet to her Instagram and told followers to “[h]old people who promote bigotry and oppose common sense gun safety accountable.”
Colorado Springs suspect identifies as nonbinary and uses they/them pronouns, defense lawyer says — The alleged shooter facing possible hate crime charges in the fatal shooting of five people at a Colorado Springs gay nightclub is nonbinary, the suspect’s defense team says in court filings.In several standard motions filed on behalf of Anderson Lee Aldrich on Tuesday, public defenders refer to the suspect as “Mx. Aldrich,” noting in footnotes that Aldrich, 22, is nonbinary and uses they/them pronouns. The motions deal with issues like unsealing documents and evidence gathering, not Aldrich’s identity and there was no elaboration about it.Aldrich, who was beaten into submission by patrons during Saturday night’s shooting at Club Q, was scheduled to appear in court for the first time Wednesday by video from jail. The motive in the shooting was still under investigation, but authorities said Aldrich faces possible murder and hate crime charges.Hate crime charges would require proving that the shooter was motivated by bias, such as against the victims’ actual or perceived sexual orientation or gender identity. The charges against Aldrich are preliminary, and prosecutors have not yet filed formal charges. Aldrich is represented by Joseph Archambault, a chief trial deputy with the state public defender’s office. Lawyers from the office do not comment on cases to the media.It was also revealed Tuesday that Aldrich’s name was changed more than six years ago as a teenager, after filing a legal petition in Texas seeking to “protect himself” from a father with a criminal history including domestic violence against Aldrich’s mother.Aldrich was known as Nicholas Franklin Brink until 2016. Weeks before turning 16, Aldrich petitioned a Texas court for a name change, court records show. A petition for the name change was submitted on Brink’s behalf by their grandparents, who were their legal guardians at the time.“Minor wishes to protect himself and his future from any connections to birth father and his criminal history. Father has had no contact with minor for several years,” said the petition filed in Bexar County, Texas.The suspect’s father is a mixed martial arts fighter and pornography performer with an extensive criminal history, including convictions for battery against the alleged shooter’s mother, Laura Voepel, both before and after the suspect was born, state and federal court records show. A 2002 misdemeanor battery conviction in California resulted in a protective order that initially barred the father, Aaron F. Brink, from contacting the suspect or Voepel except through an attorney, but was later modified to allow monitored visits with the child.
Herschel Walker Delivers Unhinged Transphobic Speech the Day After LGBTQ Nightclub Shooting - Here’s what Walker told voters yesterday, according to audio obtained by Jezebel:“Do y’all know what the definition of an enemy is? A enemy is somebody that don’t like you. But they been telling you they don’t know the definition of a woman either. So think about that either. They don’t know the definition of a woman. But I’m going to tell you the definition of a woman. Because it written in my great book. It said ‘a man and a woman.’ And there’s a difference between the two of them. So that’s the reason men shouldn’t be in women’s sport—here’s a difference.But then, yet, they trying to tell you a man could get pregnant. Get that out of your head. No, he can’t. No, he can’t. All they’re trying to do is take you down in that elevator, take you down in that elevator and lie to you. But I’m going to tell you right now, I’m not going to lie to you. I’m going to tell you, we’re in a mess. We’re in a mess because we put weak leaders in Washington. Weak leaders in Washington that not representing us.”The candidate also railed against honoring people’s correct pronouns in the military, a frequent line of his: “I’m going to tell you this, if we don’t support our military, we will have no strength. And I can guarantee we’ll have no peace. Because that what is happening right now. They have talked about Senator Warnock not talked about bringing pronouns into our military. Pronouns. What the heck is a pronoun? I can tell you right now, grenades don’t know nothing about no pronouns. Bullets don’t know what color your skin is. But yet they talking about pronouns. I’m still doing pushups and sit ups. That’s what we need to have them doing. Pushups and sit ups, not pronouns.”
Florida Legislature poised to change law to aid a DeSantis presidential run — Florida’s top Republican leaders say they are willing to change state law to smooth the way for Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024.Both House Speaker Paul Renner (R-Palm Coast) and Senate President Kathleen Passidomo (R-Naples), both of whom were sworn into their new posts on Tuesday, agreed it would be a “good idea” to make it clear that DeSantis would not have to resign if he wound up becoming the GOP nominee.DeSantis was reelected to a second four-year term earlier this month after he defeated his Democratic rival by roughly 20 points.“If an individual who is Florida governor is running for president, I think he should be allowed to do it,” Passidomo told reporters. “I really do. That’s a big honor and a privilege, so it is a good idea.” While DeSantis has not yet said he will definitely run in 2024, he has emerged as a top potential contender for the job. Some are pressing him to run even though former President Donald Trump has already announced his third bid for the White House. Recent polls have shown support for DeSantis is rising among Republican voters.
NBC- Body Cam Footage Shows Paul Pelosi Opened Door For Police Before Alleged Attack - The official narrative on the Paul Pelosi attack purported by Democrats and the mainstream media makes zero sense. You don't have to be a "conspiracy theorist" to recognize there were multiple contradictory accounts from the Department of Justice vs. local police and even some reports from journalists.In fact, NBC suspended one of its own correspondents, Miguel Almaguer, after he reported that on the night of the supposed attack at the Pelosi home in San Francisco that Paul Pelosi actually opened the door when police knocked, seemingly in normal health, and then walked away from the officers to talk to the alleged assailant David Depape, when Depape attacked him. This report led many to suggest that Pelosi and Depape somehow knew each other. A media firestorm ensued along with denials from the DOJ, which detailed a completely different version of events in which the police officers opened the door themselves and found Pelosi struggling with Depape who had injured him with a hammer. NBC dropped Almaguer after many called his report "bizarre." As it turns out, Miguel Almaguer was right. NBC now reports that police body cam footage has been made available to some media outlets and the footage clearly shows Paul Pelosi opening the door for police in seemingly perfect health. This contradicts the DOJ report on the attack and suggests a potential cover-up. NBC is forced to retract their earlier assertions that the Paul Pelosi open door event was unfounded. Why? Because they have to. Eventually the police body cam footage will make it out into the public sphere for everyone to see, and NBC is front-running their own false reports. However, they do suggest that "it doesn't really matter" who opened the door to the Pelosi home, and that Paul Pelosi's actions don't support the "conspiracy theories" surrounding the attack.If that is the case, then why would the DOJ lie? Surely, they have seen the same body cam footage. If there is no conspiracy, then why is there an attempted coverup? NBC has never had a problem editorializing news stories in the past and presenting biased opinions as evidence, yet suddenly now they pretend as if they have journalistic integrity? It is incumbent upon journalists to present what they think are the facts to the general public, but they are also required to investigate potential false accounts and false information in order to separate truth from lies. In the case of the attack on Paul Pelosi, NBC and other outlets clearly do not want to dig deeper. Now that the midterm elections are over it would appear that the "MAGA attacker" story no longer serves any purpose. The Democrats conjured their own conspiracy theory first - The claim that right-wing "extremists" are a threat to "democracy" and that the Pelosi attack proves it. There is no evidence to support this claim. There is, though, evidence to support the theory that Pelosi was familiar with Depape and his behavior indicates familiarity.
Supreme Court backs House effort to obtain Trump tax returns - The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for a House committee to obtain several years of Donald Trump’s tax returns from the IRS, a significant win for lawmakers that brought to an end a three-year court battle. With no noted dissent, the court upheld the August ruling of an appeals court panel that unanimously cleared the way for the House Ways and Means Committee to obtain the former president’s tax returns. The panel has been seeking Trump’s records since 2019, saying they were essential to potential legislation related to the IRS’ presidential audit program. House Democrats have long been eager for a glimpse at Trump’s financial records, which they say could lay bare extensive conflicts of interest that bore on his decisions as president. Trump argued that the committee’s requests were a pretense for an improper purpose: making his tax returns public to gain a political advantage. Technically, the Supreme Court’s ruling is a temporary one, rejecting an emergency request Trump filed last month. However, the high court’s order Tuesday will likely represent the end of the legal fight, allowing Democrats to gain access to Trump’s returns and possibly to release them before Republicans take control of the House in January. A Treasury spokesman said Tuesday afternoon that “the Treasury Department will comply with the Court of Appeals’ decision,” but gave no timeline. The House demanded Trump’s tax returns in May 2019, several months after winning the majority in the midterm elections following Trump’s inauguration. The Ways and Means Committee requested them from the IRS under a federal law that provides for congressional investigators with broad access to tax return information. But Trump’s Treasury and Justice Departments rejected the effort, contending the request lacked a legitimate legislative purpose and could be denied. The House, on the other hand, said the law left the IRS no discretion in terms of whether to comply with the committee’s request. The committee reissued its demand after Trump left office in January 2021, contending that Trump’s effort to block it was even weaker as an ex-president. Lower courts agreed, ruling at every turn in favor of the Ways and Means Committee. Some committee members called on Ways and Means Chair Richard Neal (D-Mass) to get his hands on the returns without delay.
Feds battle Trump over outside review of seized Mar-a-Lago documents - A federal appeals court panel sounded highly skeptical Tuesday about former President Donald Trump’s effort to rein in the Justice Department’s investigation into a trove of government documents, including sensitive national security records, at his Mar-a-Lago estate. The afternoon showdown at the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta was the first courtroom encounter between Trump’s team and federal prosecutors since Attorney General Merrick Garland tapped longtime DOJ public corruption prosecutor Jack Smith last week to serve as special counsel on Trump-related criminal investigations. All three of the judges on the appeals panel — including two appointed by Trump himself — seemed inclined to conclude that U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon erred when she granted Trump’s request for an independent review to assess Trump’s claims that some of the documents are legally protected and when she ordered that the records be off limits to investigators until those claims are litigated. From the outset of the 35-minute session, the appeals judges aggressively challenged Trump’s legal position, suggesting that he was getting accommodations that the courts almost never grant to a criminal suspect before charges are filed. “Has there ever been an exercise of this kind of jurisdiction, where there’s no showing that the seizure itself was unlawful?” Chief Judge William Pryor Jr., an appointee of President George W. Bush, asked. Trump’s attorneys could not identify an example.
SEC poses next obstacle in quest to take Trump’s Truth Social public - Investors on Tuesday agreed to give former President Donald Trump’s social media startup more time to close a deal with a partner company that would land the new venture on a Wall Street stock exchange and raise hundreds of millions of dollars. There’s one problem: Federal regulators at the Securities and Exchange Commission may still have reason to block the deal. The planned merger between Trump Media & Technology Group and Digital World Acquisition Corp. — a so-called blank check company that intends to take Trump’s startup public — has attracted regulatory scrutiny because of concerns that it potentially violated rules designed to keep investors informed. “We’re in uncharted territory,” New York University law professor Michael Ohlrogge said. “There is credible reason to believe that they violated some securities laws in how they struck the deal. The question then is how the SEC responds.” A move by the SEC to stop the deal would mark a major hit for what was supposed to be the beginning of a new era for Trump’s business empire — one designed to take on other tech giants such as Twitter with the advent of Truth Social. It would also provide fodder for opponents to attack Trump as he mounts a bid for the White House in 2024 and faces other government inquiries into the Trump Organization, while setting up the SEC as a new foe for the former president and his allies. The shareholder vote to extend the deadline for the Trump Media and Digital World combination to September 2023 follows months of delays, as executives attempted to no avail to gain enough investor support for more time. But regulatory concerns about the deal popped up soon after it was announced. Just months after the deal was struck, Digital World disclosed that the SEC was inquiring about trades in the company’s stock ahead of the deal announcement in October 2021. The agency has since expanded the investigation. In a June filing, Digital World disclosed that it and Trump Media had received SEC subpoenas for information and documents related to, among other things, communications among the companies’ executives and board members about the deal. The SEC is looking at questions related to the rules for special purpose acquisition companies, such as Digital World. So-called SPACs are effectively skeleton corporate vehicles with no operations other than to go public and use those funds to acquire a private company that will eventually take over its public listing.
Popular tax prep software sent financial information to Meta: report -- Popular tax prep software including TaxAct, TaxSlayer and H&R Blocksent sensitive financial information to Facebook parent company Metathrough its widespread code, known as a pixel, that helps developers track user activity on their sites, an investigation by The Markup found.In a report published with The Verge on Tuesday, the outlet found Meta pixel trackers in the software sent information like names, email addresses, income information and refund amounts to Meta, violating its policies. The Markup also found that TaxAct had transmitted similar financial information to Google via its analytics tool, though that data did not include names.As CNBC explained in 2018, Meta uses tiny pixels that publishers and businesses embed on their websites. The dots send a message back to Facebook when you visit. And it allows companies to target ads to people based on sites they previously visited.The report said Facebook could use the information from the tax websites to power its advertising algorithms, even if someone using the tax service doesn't have a Facebook account. It's yet another example of how Facebook's tools can be used to track people around the web, even if users don't know it.
Musk’s Twitter gets weird and wild, but Washington is sticking around - Elon Musk is making good on his promise to loosen the guardrails at Twitter — welcoming back controversy magnets like Donald Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene — all while hectoring Democrats and posting lewd memes of his own.But, so far, official Washington isn’t fleeing the new, more rough-and-tumble Twitter. For one, they don’t think they have anywhere else to go — and many believe it remains a vital messaging tool. Others are adopting a wait-and-see approach, in the hopes that things will smooth out in time.“I think part of the hesitation for people to leave at the moment is there really isn’t another place that folks can turn to easily and have a similar dialogue,” said Mark Jablonowski, managing partner at Democratic digital ad firm DSPolitical. “Folks hope that it’ll be salvageable, but we’re witnessing this play out really in real time here.”For more than 15 years, Twitter has wrangled with what to do about controversial or hateful content and posters, arriving at a kind of detente in recent years that saw Republicans complaining about censorship and Democrats calling for the platform to do more to crack down on extremist speech. But in the few short weeks since he bought the platform, Musk has ripped up that status quo, eviscerated the company’s staff and ushered in a new era where no one knows what he’ll do next.Soon after buying the platform, the tech billionaire had said he would consult with outside experts and civil rights groups ahead of making big decisions about undoing suspensions.Instead, he fired up a Twitter poll over the weekend and reinstated Trumpbased on the results. On Monday, his feed took another typically bizarre Musk turn when he bantered with Israel’s Foreign Ministry about Kanye West, opining that it’s “no fun being all stuffy” when it comes to nation-state accounts.He continued to lift account bans on Monday with the restoration of Rep. Greene’s personal account— moves that drew immediate fire from civil rights groups, many of which had been expecting to be consulted as part of a content moderation council. It was a sharp reversal of Musk’s Oct. 28 tweeted goal that “no major content decisions or account reinstatements” would happen before convening the council.“In less than three weeks Musk has gone back on every promise he made to civil-rights leaders and advertisers,” said Jessica Gonzalez, the co-CEO of media advocacy group Free Press, who met with Musk alongside the NAACP, the Anti-Defamation League and other civil rights groups in early November.
"You Can't Put It Back Together" - Jim Rickards Warns Of 'Unstoppable Crisis Worse Than 2008' - Six-time, best-selling financial author James Rickards says the upcoming book “Sold Out” lays out the case why a huge crash is already a certainty sometime in 2023. In a nutshell, broken supply chains have already caused big inflation, and the Fed is raising rates to tamp it back down. On top of the perfect storm of inflation and prolonged supply problems, we have the recent meltdown of the FTX crypto currency exchange. Rickards says,“It is definitely going to cause sequential collapses in the crypto world, but will it jump the fence into the broader financial world? My expectation is it will, but it can take six months or more to play out...We probably have an acute global financial crisis coming anyway. If FTX never existed, I would say we are staring at a worse financial crisis than 2008. Throw FTX on top of that, and it’s like throwing gasoline on a fire. It will accelerate the fire. So, we’re probably going to have problems anyway, but the FTX implosion just makes it worse.”As far as the dwindling supply chains, Rickards says, “The old supply chain has collapsed. A new supply chain will emerge, and I talk about that in my book and what it will look like..."" Right now, we are in a very messy middle period where things don’t work well. It’s like a vase. You knock over a vase, and it breaks into 5,000 pieces. You can’t put it back together. You’ve got to go get a new vase. We broke the vase, and we are shopping for a new one. We are not there yet. We are just cleaning up the mess. . . . Russia invades Ukraine. The Ukrainian plastic conduit factory shuts down, and all of a sudden, the BMW production lines are shut down because they cannot get a part. Again, this is another example of how this is all falling apart, and it’s not going to be put back together quickly. There will be a new supply chain, and I call it supply chain 2.0, but we are in that in between time, and it’s going to be just a mess.”Rickards says the Fed is going to keep raising rates because that is what they keep telling the public. Rickards says, “They are telling us what they are going to do, and you should believe them.”
FTX Reveals Top 50 Creditors Are Owed $3.1 Billion, Seeks To Keep Their Names Confidential (embedded documents) Amid the frenzied scramble to divulge all of FTX's dirty secrets, including where the fate of those $8 billion in stolen client funds which were handed over to Alameda ahead of the largest crypto exchange bankruptcy in history, there is one topic that the company's new CEO (and one-time Enron liquidator) John J. Ray wants to keep under wraps: the identity of its creditors (and FTX clients).Consider the following curious sequence of events that developed over the past week (conveniently summarized by the FT's Kadhim Shubber): on Monday, FTX said that it will file a list of its top 50 creditors "on or before November 18").Just one day later, in John J. Ray's Affidavit in Support of First Day Motion, FTX revealed that this may be a problem since "the Debtors are unable to create a list of their top 50 creditors that includes customers without access tot he data repositories at issues."Fast forward to Saturday when in a surprise twist, the Enron liquidator is now asking the judge to keep the names of the company's creditors and customers (which we assume have been identified), confidential in order to "protect the estate or any entity in respect of a trade secret or other confidential research, development or commercial information."In retrospect, considering that FTX previously estimated that it has over 1 million creditors - which ostensibly includes all clients of the FTX brokerage from the smallest mom and pop investors to massive Chinese money laundering whales - this is probably not all that surprising, although it will be interesting to see how Judge John Dorsey, who is the appointed Delaware Bankruptcy Court judge on the FTX bankruptcy, will rule on November 22, 2022 at 11:00 a.m. (at Courtroom #5 on the 5th floor at 824 North Market Street in Wilmington) when the First Day hearing takes place.As an aside, since the creditors of FTX also includes FTX clients, one wonders if there is a political push to keep certain names hidden, despite official denials?A fundraising crypto foundation @_AidForUkraine used @FTX_Official to convert crypto donations into fiat in March. Ukraine's gov never invested any funds into FTX. The whole narrative that Ukraine allegedly invested in FTX, who donated money to Democrats is nonsense, frankly ♂️ — Alex Bornyakov (@abornyakov) November 14, 2022And then of course, this: Tangentially, as the FT notes in other recent cryptocurrency bankruptcy cases involving Voyager Digital and Celsius Networks, "a key legal question has been determining whether account holders are unsecured creditors or have a higher priority status in determining who gets recovery payments first. Another question likely to arise is whether account holders who withdrew their money just before the bankruptcy filing are subject to clawbacks."
"You're An Absolute Fraud": CME CEO Terry Duffy Recalls First Meeting Sam Bankman-Fried In March 2022 -- CME Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Terry Duffy has been the talk of social media today, after a podcast appearance with CNBC's Guy Adami and Dan Nathan began making its rounds on Monday morning.Among other topics discussed on the podcast was Duffy recalling his first meeting with Sam Bankman-Fried, which took place in March 2022. Ole' Terry's senses from days of being in the pit are still sharp as can be. He pegged FTX for a fraud before the company blew up - and told Bankman-Fried as much to his face, as he called on the podcast. Duffy says he was approached by SBF at a conference who told him he wanted to compete with CME in crypto. Instead, Duffy says he offered to give SBF his crypto franchises in exchange for working together. "Let me be your risk manager. I'll clear it so that I know it's done properly," Duffy says he told SBF. When SBF asked if Duffy would deploy his model, Duffy told him "Your model is crap. Why would I deploy a model that introduces risk into the system? Of course I'm not going to deploy your model!"From there, SBF "flat out turned me down", Duffy said. "Right away I said to him 'You're a fraud. you're an absolute fraud'," Duffy recants telling SBF. "You're supposedly worth $26 billion and are altruistic? How come there's not a $10 billion donation going to someone right this moment in time?""My net worth doesn't start with any B's and I'll give you 3-to-1 that I have more money than you," Duffy said to SBF. "I'll give you 4-to-1 that I have more money in my right pocket than your net worth."And the recollection of events gels with media at the time. Later on in the spring, Duffy took to Congress and specifically made claims that "FTX [had] set aside insufficient financial resources to back its proposed direct clearing model for crypto derivatives"."I got berated" at Congress when blowing the whistle on FTX, Duffy says. You can watch the whole congressional hearing below, but we've cued it up to a heated exchange with Congressman Ro Khanna (pointed out by @ardalyonovich on Twitter) who vehemently defends FTX after Duffy claimed that FTX had "zero capital requirements for participants". "I think that's, on its face, a false statement," Khanna barks at Duffy. Khanna then continues to try and lecture Duffy: "Sir I want you to, after this, submit something that is accurate recognizing you're testimony to Congress, you don't know much about cryptocurrencies, you're opining about cryptocurrencies and you're giving false statements to Congress," he continues. Penn professor and forensic accounting expert Francine McKenna summed it up perfectly when she commented on Twitter: "Duffy went to Congress and told them FTX was a bankrupt business model and he was ignored just like he was ignored when he said Corzine knew he had used customer funds and knew where the missing $1.6 bullion was.
FTX Hacker Starts Dumping Massive Haul Of Ether Tokens - Last weekend, we reported on the mysterious $662 million outflow of tokens that suddenly hit FTX. At the time, Nansen's Alex Svanevik said, "It's unclear exactly who's making the transactions, but you wouldn't expect to see these on-chain trades at this time." He said FTX's main wallet was entirely drained of FTT.Additionally, Reuters reported that SBF had a "backdoor" in FTX's book-keeping system, which allowed him to move customer money around without triggering internal compliance or accounting red flags.During the week, more details came out that suggested at least some of this outflow was in fact an apparently sanctioned transfer from FTX to Bahamian regulators - who rejected the exchange's US bankruptcy filing and took possession of some of the assets."[There is] credible evidence that the Bahamian government is responsible for directing unauthorized access to the Debtors' systems for the purpose of obtaining digital assets of the Debtors—that took place after the commencement of these cases," read the filing, signed by new FTX CEO John Ray, famous for handling the liquidation of Enron.The company went on to say that its co-founders Sam Bankman-Fried and Gary Wang were recorded saying that Bahamanian regulators instructed the pair to make "certain post-petition transfers" and that such assets were "custodied on FireBlocks under control of [the] Bahamian government." Securities Commission Addresses FTX Statement on Bahamian Withdrawals pic.twitter.com/OZKWwicSuN — Securities Commission of The Bahamas (@SCBgov_bs) November 12, 2022However, although initial reports suggested that all of the funds in question might be in the custody of securities regulators in the Bahamas, Chainalysis poured cold water on this theory however, stating:“Reports that the funds stolen from FTX were actually sent to the Securities Commission of The Bahamas are incorrect. Some funds were stolen, and other funds were sent to the regulators.”And as Bloomberg reported earlier in the week, the hackers who stole the funds have become one of the world's largest holders of the Ether token.
FTX will sell or restructure global empire, CEO says -FTX's new CEO said on Saturday that the bankrupt crypto exchange is looking to sell or restructure its global empire, even as Bahamian regulators and FTX squabble in court filings and press releases about whether the bankruptcy filing should proceed in New York or in Delaware."Based on our review over the past week, we are pleased to learn that many regulated or licensed subsidiaries of FTX, within and outside of the United States, have solvent balance sheets, responsible management and valuable franchises," FTX chief John Ray, said in a statement.Ray, who replaced FTX's founder Sam Bankman-Fried when the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Nov. 11, added that it is "a priority" in the coming weeks to "explore sales, recapitalizations or other strategic transactions with respect to these subsidiaries, and others that we identify as our work continues."Ray's statement came with a flurry of Saturday morning filings in Delaware bankruptcy court. In those filings, FTX asked for permission to pay outside vendors, consolidate bank accounts, and establish new ones.The exact timing of a possible sale is unclear. FTX indicated that it has not set a specific timetable for the completion of this process and said that it "does not intend to disclose further developments unless and until it determines that further disclosure is appropriate or necessary."Both FTX and Bahamas securities regulators are seeking jurisdiction over the bankruptcy process in two different U.S. courts. Last week, Bahamian regulators moved potentially hundreds of millions of "digital assets" from FTX custody into their own, acknowledging the deed in a press release after FTX attorneys accused them of doing so in an emergency court filing. Ray singled out some of the company's healthier subsidiaries for praise. One example was LedgerX, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated derivatives platform. LedgerX was one of the few FTX-related properties that are not a part of its bankruptcy proceedings and remains operational today. The platform, which FTX acquired in 2021, lets traders buy options, swaps and futures on bitcoin and ethereum.The new FTX CEO asked that employees, vendors, customers, regulators and government stakeholders "be patient" with them.FTX said in a filing that there could be more than one million creditors in these Chapter 11 cases.FTX and its accountants had identified 216 bank accounts, across 36 banks, with positive balances globally. Cash balances across all entities totaled some $564 million, with $265.6 million of that in the custody of LedgerX on a restricted basis.FTX attorneys also want to employ a "cash pooling system," merging all the cash assets of each disparate FTX entity into one consolidated balance statement and in new bank accounts, which FTX is currently in the process of opening.Notably, FTX attorneys wrote that they were "working, and will continue to work, closely with [existing FTX banks] to ensure that prior authorized signatories do not have access" to any prior FTX accounts that will continue to be used. Prior reporting and court filings have indicated that Sam Bankman-Fried held nearly absolute control over cash management and account access.FTX's bank accounts reflect the global influence of the crypto-asset empire. Institutions in Cyprus, Dubai, Japan and Germany held a wide array of global currencies. FTX subsidiaries held more than a dozen accounts at Signature Bank, an American institution that made an aggressive foray into servicing crypto customers in 2021. With the exception of one Bank of America account for Blockfolio, major American banks are unaccounted for on the list. Blockfolio was acquired by FTX in the summer of 2020.In another petition, FTX lawyers moved to access $9.3 million for vendor payments that FTX called "critical." No list was provided, but the FTX motion established criteria for "critical vendor" status.In welcome news for customers, FTX attorneys applied to the court for permission to redact "certain confidential information," including the names and "all associated identifying information" of FTX's customers. "Public dissemination of [FTX's] customer list could give [...] competitors an unfair advantage to contact and poach their customers," the filing read, potentially jeopardizing FTX's ability to sell off assets or businesses.FTX lawyers want the proceedings to continue in Delaware. Bahamas regulators, on the other hand, claim they do not recognize the authority of those Chapter 11 proceedings and want to hold a Chapter 15 process in New York.
Crypto Firm Genesis Warns Of Bankruptcy Without New Funding - Digital-asset brokerage Genesis is struggling to raise fresh cash for its lending unit, and it’s warning potential investors that it may need to file for bankruptcy if its efforts fail, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Genesis has spent the past several days seeking at least $1 billion in fresh capital, said the people, who asked not to be identified because discussions are private. That included talks over a potential investment from crypto exchange Binance, they said, but funding so far has failed to materialize.
Crypto brokerage Genesis is said to warn of bankruptcy without funding - The digital-asset brokerage Genesis is struggling to raise fresh cash for its lending unit, and it's warning potential investors that it may need to file for bankruptcy if its efforts fail, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Genesis has spent the past several days seeking at least $1 billion in fresh capital, said the people, who asked not to be identified because discussions are private. That included talks over a potential investment from the crypto exchange Binance, they said, but funding so far has failed to materialize. The rush for funding was precipitated by a liquidity crunch at the lender after the sudden collapse of FTX, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges. Genesis halted redemptions shortly after revealing on Nov. 10 that it had $175 million locked in an FTX trading account. "We have no plans to file bankruptcy imminently," a representative for Genesis said in an emailed statement. "Our goal is to resolve the current situation consensually without the need for any bankruptcy filing. Genesis continues to have constructive conversations with creditors." A representative for Binance declined to comment. Genesis has reached out to Apollo Global Management in a bid to secure an investment, but Apollo is unlikely to commit to a deal, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. One option proposed by Genesis was for Apollo to buy parts of its loan book, this person said. A spokesperson for Genesis didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on its interactions with Apollo. Other platforms are facing their own struggles as redemption requests roll in after FTX's bankruptcy filing roiled the crypto sector and left investors on edge about the risk of contagion. Genesis is a counterparty to many in the digital-asset space and is closely watched as a gauge of the industry's strength. It's among the crypto lenders that are feeling acute strain after a prolonged rout in virtual-coin prices amid multiple high-profile blowups. The difficulties at Genesis have also buffeted the billionaire Winklevoss twins Tyler and Cameron, owners of the Gemini crypto exchange. In response to Genesis suspending withdrawals, Gemini halted redemptions from its Earn product. That left in limbo a program that, according to a person familiar with the matter, has $700 million of customer money tied up in it.
Crypto lender Genesis says no plans to file bankruptcy imminently (Reuters) - Cryptocurrency lender Genesis said on Monday it has no plans to file for bankruptcy imminently, days after the collapse of crypto exchange FTX forced it to suspend customer redemptions."We have no plans to file bankruptcy imminently. Our goal is to resolve the current situation consensually without the need for any bankruptcy filing," a Genesis spokesperson said in an emailed statement to Reuters, adding that it continues to have conversations with creditors.A report from Bloomberg News, citing sources, said that Genesis was struggling to raise fresh cash for its lending unit, and warning investors it may need to file for bankruptcy if it does not find funding.Also, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources that the company approached crypto exchange Binance seeking an investment but Binance decided against it, fearing a conflict of interest down the line.Genesis also approached private equity firm Apollo Global Management for capital assistance, according to the report.Apollo did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the WSJ report, while Binance declined to comment.Last week, Genesis Global Capital suspended customer redemptions in its lending business, citing the sudden failure of Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange FTX.On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Genesis had sought an emergency loan of $1 billion from investors before it suspended withdrawals.
The Crypto Reaper comes calling for Genesis -- Life comes at you fast in crypto, as customers of FTX have discovered this month. It now looks like the latest frostbitten victim of the crypto winter is Genesis — basically the Goldman Sachs of magic beans. From Bloomberg overnight:Digital-asset brokerage Genesis is struggling to raise fresh cash for its lending unit, and it’s warning potential investors that it may need to file for bankruptcy if its efforts fail, according to people with knowledge of the matter.Genesis has spent the past several days seeking at least $1 billion in fresh capital, said the people, who asked not to be identified because discussions are private. That included talks over a potential investment from crypto exchange Binance, they said, but funding so far has failed to materialize.The rush for funding was precipitated by a liquidity crunch at the lender after the sudden collapse of FTX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. Genesis halted redemptions shortly after revealing on Nov. 10 that it had $175 million locked in an FTX trading account. We should stress that Genesis told the Borg that “we have no plans to file bankruptcy imminently . . . Our goal is to resolve the current situation consensually without the need for any bankruptcy filing. Genesis continues to have constructive conversations with creditors.” (The “imminently” bit certainly fills us with confidence.)Genesis is not some small Johnny-come-lately to crypto. It first started trading bitcoin back in 2013, and says that last year it arranged over $130bn of crypto loans, traded $116bn worth of bitcoin and almost $54bn of crypto derivatives. It is a cornerstone of the Digital Currency Group empire of former Houlihan Lokey investment banker Barry Silbert. The magic bean to rule all magic beans has not taken kindly to the latest round of contagion gripping another major industry player, with bitcoin back below $16,000. That’s not all. Look at what has happened to the other major pillar of Silbert’s DCG, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Back in the halcyon days of . . . 13 months ago, GBTC’s assets peaked at almost $40bn. Today, it stands at about $10bn. Worse, investors have been dumping its shares so violently that they now trade at arecord 45 per cent discount to the current market value of the bitcoin that it holds. That is an astonishing gap on an apparently ringfenced trust. (For context: people freaked out when big credit ETFs traded at a 5-8 per cent discount to NAV back in March 2020).
Key Institutional Crypto Player, Genesis, on Verge of Failure; Possibility of “Apocalyptic” Bitcoin Liquidation - by Yves Smith - Due to the fact that your humble blogger is not feeling so hot, forgive me for giving you a thin treatment of the wobbles and likely-looking collapse of a key crypto concern, Genesis. However, two excellent tweetstorms cover most of the key ground, and I will direct you to them shortly.The unwind of FTX is certain to dominate business press, pundit, and politician attention due to how its uber connected and very recently idolized top brass have been revealed as drug-addled business incompetents who neverless seem to have done a very good job at disappearing a lot of the moolah, presumable for their personal use. The level of media noise and coming prosecutions (both the Southern District of New York and Bahama are reportedly ginning up filing) and the failure of supposedly sophisticated player to find anything amiss will presumably chill interest in crypto, particularly if other firms fall over due to FTX contagion.If Genesis is one of them, it has the potential to be particularly damaging to the ambitions of crypto promoters for these speculative coins to become a serious alternative to fiat. Genesis provided a traditional suite of investment services together called prime brokerage to institutional investors, as in big money players. Importantly, as I understand it, Genesis was the only real contender in that space. That might sound really attractive (who doesn’t want to be a de facto near monopoly provider?) but it’s dangerous when you are the big market-maker trading (and more important, therefore holding large positions in) highly volatile assets.So major institutions may have direct exposure if Genesis fails. And even if they don’t, the prospect that they could have will dampen institutional investor enthusiasm, particularly if unflattering facts come out during a bankruptcy.Genesis took a body blow when hedge fund Three Arrows Capital failed. Genesis has lent to the tune of $2.4 billion. Genesis’ parent Digital Currency Group, filed a claim in bankruptcy court in July or $1.2 billion. An update from the Financial Times in August:Crypto broker Genesis will cut a fifth of its staff and replace its chief executive as it counts the cost of lending $2.4bn to hedge fund Three Arrows Capital…Many of the industry’s best-known names, including Voyager Digital, BlockFi and Deribit, were also forced to liquidate some of Three Arrows’s positions when the investment shop failed to meet margin calls. Court documents showed that Genesis had lent Three Arrows $2.4bn in undercollateralised loans.Genesis’s parent company Digital Currency Group, founded by investor Barry Silbert, has taken over the trading firm’s liabilities related to Three Arrows and lodged a $1.2bn claim in the US bankruptcy case.You can see how the story changes as FTX unravels:Bloomberg reported on November 21 that Genesis was trying to raise money and might have to file for bankruptcy. To spare you further suspense: [embedded tweets….] Some of the highlights: [embedded tweets….] And here is why Genesis is particularly important to the crypto ecosystem. Again the entire tweetstorm is very much worth your attention, but some highlights: […]
Bankrupt crypto lender Celsius was lax with custody program -A new report by the examiner of the bankrupt crypto lender Celsius Network details shortfalls in controls and operations at two of the company's product offerings related to digital assets it held in custody for customers, raising issues of whether and how these users can get reimbursed.The programs, Custody and Withhold, were similar, and allowed users to keep their digital coins in the lender while supposedly maintaining ownership of them. The programs' users have been claiming that they shouldn't be lumped together with other unsecured creditors and should be reimbursed in full.In her interim report, examiner Shoba Pillay found that Celsius launched the Custody program "without sufficient accounting and operational controls or technical infrastructure." As a result, Custody wallets were overfunded through June 10, but then became underfunded by $50.5 million — a 24% shortfall — by June 24.With the Withhold program, "no effort was made to segregate or separately identify any assets" associated with the accounts, the report said. "As a result, customers now face uncertainty regarding which assets, if any, belonged to them as of the bankruptcy filing," Pillay wrote in the report. The findings may complicate customers' efforts at reimbursement.The judge in Celsius's bankrupcty case approved the appointment of an examiner in September to probe how the lender stored its assets and whether any of them were comingled. The report noted that Celsius sped up the rollout of its Custody program due to regulatory pressure from New Jersey's regulator. It also received inquiries or subpoenas from the Securities and Exchange Commission beginning in August of 2021.Celsius halted withdrawals in June and filed for bankruptcy in July after its risky bets fell through and it experienced a rush of customers seeking their funds back. Its troubles were part of a series of crises that roiled the industry in the spring and included the implosion of the TerraUSD stablecoin, the failure of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital and the bankruptcy of brokerage Voyager Digital. A new round of convulsions has hit the crypto market more recently with this month's spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX empire.Kyle Ortiz, partner at Togut, Segal & Segal representing Custody account holders, and Deborah Kovsky-Apap, partner at Troutman Pepper representing Withhold account holders, didn't immediately return requests for comment.The bankruptcy case is Celsius Network LLC, 22-10964, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
The entire crypto ecosystem is a ponzi -- By Frances Coppola - For crypto investors to cash out their extraordinary gains, there must be real money in the system - dollars, euros, yen, pounds. But the crypto system, unlike the traditional finance system, is unable to create real money. It can create tokens that represent dollars, euros, yen etc, but these aren't accepted for real-world transactions such as purchasing condos in the Bahamas. So the crypto system needs inflows of real money. The more it grows, the more real money it must attract. Much of the real money that has gone into the crypto ecosystem in the last three years has come from institutional investors. But as any bank will tell you, institutional money is not the most stable form of funding. Professional investors are a fickle bunch: they'll withdraw their money in a flash if they see a better profit opportunity, and they run at the first sign of trouble. For stable funding, what you really need is retail deposits. So platforms such as FTX specifically targeted retail customers, offering higher-yielding alternatives to bank accounts, complete with online payment facilities and debit cards, and encouraging retail customers to have their wages paid directly into accounts on the platform: The interest rates on these retail-focused crypto deposit accounts were far above those offered by banks. But attractive though these slick high-yield bank-like deposit accounts were, they struggled to attract the quantity of new depositors that the system needed. Many retail customers were wary of crypto because of its reputation as a vehicle for illegal activities, and suspicious of high returns from bank-like things that don't have deposit insurance. They worried that they might lose their money. So platforms needed to convince retail depositors that these accounts were as safe or safer than bank accounts. Some relied on advertising and network marketing to persuade people to part with their money. Celsius Network, for example, explicitly marketed itself as "better than a bank". It exploited memories of the 2008 financial crisis and the Cyprus depositor bail-in in 2013 to convince potential customers that their money was not safe in banks and they should transfer it to Celsius, which would keep their money completely safe as well as giving them better interest rates than any bank. This was, of course, a lie. Celsius was in reality taking risks with retail deposits that no bank now would be allowed to take. It was pooling and lending out customer deposits to undisclosed and, we now know, highly risky borrowers, and rehypothecating collateral pledged against that borrowing, effectively rendering the loans unsecured. It had neither central bank liquidity support nor deposit insurance. And it was not subject to the capital and liquidity regulations that protect depositors from losses if traditional banks fail. Celsius's business model was far more dangerous for retail depositors than that of the banks from which it was enticing them to move their deposits. But repeated warnings from informed observers about Celsius's business model were dismissed and ignored by many in the crypto community. The party came to an end for Celsius as long ago as April 2021, when cease & desist orders from New Jersey and other states forced it to stop offering interest-bearing accounts to U.S. customers. But it stumbled on for another eighteen months, concealing the growing hole in its balance sheet with sales of its own token, and continuing to recruit retail customers, including from the U.S. The U.S. Examiner's report reveals that although it stopped paying interest to U.S. customers, it did not segregate their funds, but continued to use them to support liquidity on the platform. As of October 28th, 2022, some $16.9 million worth of their deposits had gone missing. Other platforms found another way of persuading people that it was safe to put their money into crypto. Fiat money in banks has FDICinsurance (or the equivalent in other countries). So crypto platforms such as Voyager entered into relationships with FDIC-insured banks and then marketed fiat deposits on the platform as FDIC insured. This was, strictly speaking, true - but depositors were only covered if the bank failed, not if the platform did. Not that Voyager cared. It cheerfully told its customers that their deposits were insured if either the bank or the platform failed. When the platform failed in June 2022, customers understandably demanded their FDIC insurance payout. But there was no payout.Voyager had lied. FDIC was not liable for losses arising from failure of the platform.Voyager was not the only or even the first, crypto platform to mis-sell FDIC insurance to retail depositors. It was a long-running industry-wide scam. In March 2020, I publicly criticised the crypto lender Cred for claiming its retail deposits were FDIC insured when they clearly were not. Cred failed in November 2020, taking lots of its depositors' money with it. As I had warned, they turned out not to be insured. And it was not just lending platforms that claimed their deposits were FDIC insured. Crypto exchanges, notably Coinbase and Gemini, told their customers that fiat deposits qualified for FDIC "pass-through" insurance. FDIC has to my knowledge never confirmed that fiat deposits on any crypto exchange or platform qualify for either direct or pass-through insurance. But for well over two years, crypto exchanges and platforms got away with marketing themselves as FDIC-insured. It wasn't until the summer of 2022 that FDIC made a serious attempt to end mis-selling of FDIC insurance by crypto companies. Why did it take FDIC so long to act? Partly, I suspect, because crypto wasn't seen as posing a serious risk to the mainstream financial system. And perhaps also because crypto has never been eligible for FDIC insurance, so there was no particular reason for FDIC to take an interest in it. Whatever the reason, FDIC did not act until after Voyager's failure revealed systematic mis-selling of FDIC insurance to retail customers.
FTX collapse ensnares creditors big and small all over the world - From a German bank seeking a more than $2 million payment to a Chinese investor requesting $21,000 of lost savings. Claimants around the world who were caught up in the epic collapse of FTX Group are beginning to appear in court filings.And unlike the very largest creditors, the claimants' names haven't been redacted, according to documents released recently in Delaware. They provide an insight into the sprawling nature of Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto empire — and the daunting task faced by insolvency practitioners in figuring out who is owed what. The case involves more than a 1 million creditors and may take years to wrap up.Creditors entangled in the meltdown of FTX, which was once one of the biggest crypto exchanges in the world, include a Frankfurt-based financial institution. Bankhaus Scheich Wertpapierspezialist says it's owed $2.3 million by FTX for deposits including bitcoin, ethereum and dollars, according to filings. A spokesperson for the firm confirmed the claim, when contacted by Bloomberg News, and said it traded on FTX for hedging purposes and that client money was unaffected.Creditors attached screenshots of trading accounts or emails they had received from FTX as proof of what they were owed."I want to know how to get my money back, after all that's all my savings over the last few years," said a Chinese creditor whose claim is worth just over $21,000. "I desperately need your help."Claimants cited in this article were contacted for comment by Bloomberg News, with several declining to comment. A slew of claims made public come from investors based in Taiwan. And a handful are issued among those with addresses in China, the filings indicate, where crypto trading has been subject to regulatory clampdowns. Reto Stiffler, a former GAM Holding AG fund manager, also submitted a claim worth $895,000.FTX owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, according to a filing at a Delaware court on Sunday that didn't reveal the identity of any of the claimants. Two of the exchange's customers are owed more than $200 million, the filing shows. The 50 largest claims are all from customers owed $21 million or moreIt remains unclear just how much money will be generated from the wind-down of FTX, and it's possible that many creditors will receive only fractions of what they are owed, if anything. The process can take months in smaller cases and years for bigger multibillion-dollar bankruptcies. The alleged debts, which are typically unsecured, will be subject to a process designed to weed out any bogus, inflated or duplicated claims. Traders can buy up the claims — and make money holding them by waiting out for as big a payout as possible.Meanwhile a hedge fund managed by a subsidiary of the German crypto player Immutable Insight says it's exposed to FTX's fallout, saying it's owed $1.6 million."We took swift actions to immediately reduce any exposure, and as a result of this, some initiated withdrawals were not processed," a spokesman for the investment vehicle BlockchainFonds said in an email. "BlockchainFonds does not have any direct exposure towards Alameda Research or FTT token."
FTX’s Latest Casualties: Federally Insured Crypto Banks --By Pam Martens and Russ Martens -- On August 1 of this year, we penned this headline at Wall Street On Parade: Brace Yourself for Federally-Insured Bank Failures Caused by Crypto. Our research for that article was so stomach-churning and frightening that we emailed the article to key staff for the Senators who sit on the Senate Banking Committee. One of the banks we researched for that article was Silvergate Bank. We wrote:“FDIC-insured Silvergate Bank is part of the publicly-traded Silvergate Capital Corp., (ticker SI). Silvergate’s website says this about its hot pursuit of crypto: ‘We began pursuing digital currency customers in 2013 and have been deliberate in our approach to serving this community since then. Today, we have 1,300+ digital currency and fintech customers that are using our platform daily to grow and scale their businesses.’“Silvergate Capital’s 10-K (annual report) for the year ending Dec 31, 2021 that it filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledged this about the crypto market that it has so deliberately decided to pursue:‘The characteristics of digital currency have been, and may in the future continue to be, exploited to facilitate illegal activity such as fraud, money laundering, tax evasion and ransomware scams; if any of our customers do so or are alleged to have done so, it could adversely affect us…’“Silvergate’s 10-K also states that ‘Deposits from digital currency exchanges represent approximately 58.0% of the Bank’s overall deposits and are held by approximately 94 exchanges.’ More than half of a federally-insured bank’s deposits are tied to crypto while federal regulators are twiddling their thumbs and letting it happen. This news comes despite the fact that legendary investor Warren Buffet has called the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, ‘rat poison squared’; global economist, Nouriel Roubini, told the Senate Banking Committee in 2018 that ‘Crypto is the Mother of All Scams and (Now Busted) Bubbles While Blockchain Is The Most Over-Hyped Technology Ever, No Better than a Spreadsheet/Database.’ More recently, Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, one of the most valuable tech companies in the world, stated that cryptocurrencies are ‘100% based on greater fool theory.’ And just this past June 1, more than 1,600 scientists and software engineers wrote to Committee chairs in Congress to warn that both crypto and blockchain are shams.”On the same day that FTX made its filing in bankruptcy court in Delaware, the FDIC-insured Silvergate Bank released a statement which included this nugget from its CEO, Alan Lane:“In light of recent developments, I want to provide an update on Silvergate’s exposure to FTX. As of September 30, 2022, Silvergate’s total deposits from all digital asset customers totaled $11.9 billion, of which FTX represented less than 10%. Silvergate has no outstanding loans to nor investments in FTX, and FTX is not a custodian for Silvergate’s bitcoin-collateralized SEN Leverage loans. To be clear, our relationship with FTX is limited to deposits.”Why Alan Lane thinks the public would be comforted to know that his bank is connected to FTX – and its potentially wiped-out customers – to the tune of more than $1 billion raises questions about his own mental processes. (Perhaps Lane doesn’t recall that JPMorgan Chase was hit with two felony counts by the U.S. Department of Justice for its role in the Bernie Madoff fraud and forced to pay $1.7 billion to settle the case.) Federally-insured banks must follow “Know Your Customer” rules and report any suspected cases of money laundering to the federal agency, FinCEN. It has been credibly reported that as much as $10 billion was transferred from customer funds at the FTX crypto exchange to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, Alameda Research, with a large chunk of that now missing. Federal prosecutors might find that Silvergate Bank’s compliance personnel should have reported the suspicious movement of customer funds to FinCEN.
"Concerns Have Abated": FalconX Resumes Use Of Silvergate Network As Crypto Bank Amasses Large Short Interest -- Like almost every other equity related to crypto this month, Silvergate Capital has been punished badly. But for Silvergate, which is known as the largest and most well known regulated crypto bank in the United States that also can allow customers to send cash in real time, it looks as though business may be returning to normal...somewhat.This morning it was announced that institutional cryptocurrency platform FalconX would be resuming its use of the Silvergate payment network. It had suspended use of the network last week. "Concerns have abated," the platform told its clients in a memo. The halting of use of Silvergate was consistent “with our standard process to pause and reassess operations in these scenarios," the company wrote, according to a Tuesday morning Bloomberg note. Meanwhile, Silvergate Chief Executive Officer Alan Lane said earlier this year that the bank "remains committed to supporting customers during a challenging period for the digital-asset industry," Bloomberg reported. On his LinkedIn page Monday, Lane wrote: “I’ve said before that our business was built to support our customers during growth and market transformation. And we remain steadfast in that commitment to you, our customers.”In the interim, as Silvergate continues to weather the storm, its stock has amassed a massive 12% of its float short, even despite the plunge in shares, according to S3.Recall, about a week ago Silvergate confirmed it had little exposure to the FTX blowup. Lane, Chief Executive Officer of Silvergate, said: “In light of recent developments, I want to provide an update on Silvergate’s exposure to FTX. As of September 30, 2022, Silvergate’s total deposits from all digital asset customers totaled $11.9 billion, of which FTX represented less than 10%. Silvergate has no outstanding loans to nor investments in FTX, and FTX is not a custodian for Silvergate’s bitcoin-collateralized SEN Leverage loans. To be clear, our relationship with FTX is limited to deposits." The company then confirmed that the rest of its leveraged loans and banking infrastructure was safe: “To date, all SEN Leverage loans have continued to perform as expected with zero losses and no forced liquidations. As a reminder, all SEN Leverage loans are collateralized by Bitcoin, and we do not make unsecured loans or collateralize SEN Leverage loans with other digital assets.”
U.S. Justice Department Steps into the FTX Bankruptcy Case in Delaware By Pam Martens and Russ Martens - Two attorneys from the Department of Justice in Washington, D.C. have filed an appearance with the Bankruptcy Court in Delaware that is hearing the bankruptcy case filed by the disgraced crypto exchange, FTX, and its related hedge fund, Alameda Research. Both are majority-owned by the scandalized former crypto kingpin Sam Bankman-Fried. More than 100 other global tentacles of FTX are included in the bankruptcy case. The DOJ attorneys that made the notices of appearance are Seth Shapiro and Stanton McManus.The notice of appearance for both attorneys references two noteworthy statutes, 28 U.S.C. § 516 and 518, among others: 28 U.S.C. § 516 reads as follows:“Except as otherwise authorized by law, the conduct of litigation in which the United States, an agency, or officer thereof is a party, or is interested, andsecuring evidence therefor, is reserved to officers of the Department of Justice, under the direction of the Attorney General.” (Italics added.)28 U.S.C. § 518, reads in part:“When the Attorney General considers it in the interests of the United States, he may personally conduct and argue any case in a court of the United States in which the United States is interested, or he may direct the Solicitor General or any officer of the Department of Justice to do so.” (Italics added.)The notices from the Department of Justice were filed yesterday. Today, the following item has been added to the court docket on behalf of FTX:“[SEALED] Motion to Authorize (Motion for Entry of Interim and Final Orders (A) Authorizing the Debtors, in their Sole Discretion, to ProvideIndemnification and Exculpation to Certain Individuals, (B) Authorizing Certain Actions Pursuant to Section 363 of the Bankruptcy Code, and (C) Granting Certain Related Relief) Filed by FTX Trading Ltd.. (Attachments: # 1 Exhibit A # 2 Exhibit B) (Landis, Adam) (Entered: 11/22/2022)” (Italics added.)The ”debtors” are FTX and its related companies that have filed bankruptcy. Its legal standing to, in its “sole discretion,” indemnify and exculpate anyone for potential crimes is preposterous. And to place the details of this absurd request under seal is a further outrage to the sensibilities of all Americans.Reuters has reported that Bankman-Fried moved as much as $10 billion of FTX customers’ money to his separate hedge fund, Alameda Research, through a “backdoor” in its software. Alameda is reported to have lost much of the money on bad investments and efforts to prop up its FTX token (FTT), while $1 billion to $2 billion has just “disappeared,” according to Reuters. The Financial Times reported that FTX held just $900 million “in easily sellable assets” against $9 billion “of liabilities the day before it collapsed into bankruptcy.”The major law firm overseeing the FTX bankruptcy proceedings is Sullivan & Cromwell, which has a host of conflicts because of past legal work it did for FTX and related companies.It is also not clear who had the authority to hire Sullivan & Cromwell for the FTX bankruptcy case or who had the authority to hire the new FTX CEO, John Ray III. The pleadings in the case thus far fail to indicate who it was that hired Sullivan & Cromwell or Ray.
A Quick Note About Additional FTX Sleaze by Yves Smith - Even though there’s a widespread assumption that Sam Bankman-Fried and his main partners did a whole bunch of things not on the up and up beyond operating a trading business while insisting staff be high on drugs known to blunt inhibitions about risk and then lose boatloads of money on bad wagers and investments, we don’t yet know that for sure. But turn over a few obvious rocks that do not require expertise in crypto and one finds far too many creepy-crawlies. We described how the shockingly amateurish customer agreement, the so-called Terms of Service, was the investment version of a Nigerian scam letter, designed to sort for marks. Given that both of Bankman-Fried’s parents were Standford law professors and crypto was a perceived-to-be hot place to be, it would not seem to be hard to find a hot-shot young partner who thought being the general counsel of a rising star firm would be career and wallet enhancing. Or alternatively, a high-flying senior associate as general counsel, with a good Silicon Valley law firm looking over his shoulder. Nope. Instead FTX hired a lawyer who for a while served as general counsel, then regulatory counsel, whose big resume item was having been general counsel at a major online poker betting firm that collapsed in a cheating scandal. Oh, and said lawyer, Dan Friedberg, was implicated in the misconduct. The reason this matters, as anyone who has worked in finance and investments would likely tell you, is that the job of the general counsel is to keep you out of trouble. He is supposed to tell you very bad things will happen if you cross certain line, and care enough about it to threaten to or actually quit if his bosses seem set to do Bad Things despite his stern advice. Having a general counsel with a clean and credible resume is also normally important in reassuring investors, customers, and lenders. So it’s weirdly par for the course that so many acted like lemmings, assuming that somebody else in the wall of money that for a while flowed towards the FTX empire had done due diligence.
What happened at FTX? Senate Agriculture Committee wants to find out — Sens. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, and John Boozman, R-Ark., the panel's ranking member, have scheduled a hearing on the collapse of FTX. The hearing, set for Dec. 1, is the third announced by Congress following the unwinding of the crypto exchange. The Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee have both said they will host hearings on the issue, scheduled for an undetermined date in December. The Senate Agriculture Committee will host Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam. The hearings come after the collapse of trading platform FTX and the dramatic downfall of its CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, a major player in Washington conversations about crypto given his large donation portfolio, especially among Democrats. Stabenow and Boozman are also trying to salvage their bill to regulate crypto, which was backed by Bankman-Fried. It would have given the CFTC more responsibility for policing the two largest cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ethereum. The legislation has not been withdrawn, but the senators are looking to revisit it because of the FTX collapse. "In light of these developments, we are taking a top-down look to ensure it establishes the necessary safeguards the digital commodities market desperately needs," Boozman previously said in a written statement.The Stabenow-Boozman bill represents one of several factions when it comes to regulating cryptocurrency. After the downfall of FTX, these competing groups have doubled down on their visions of what oversight into digital assets should look like. Reps. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., and Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., are working on a bill that wouldregulate stablecoin issuers, while Sens. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., would make it easier for certain digital asset banks to get access to Federal Reserve accounts.Bankman-Fried made two appearances before the Senate Agriculture Committee earlier this year. The Agriculture Committee oversees the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which monitors crypto exchanges. FTX is registered and licensed with the CFTC and, until last Friday, it was seeking to register its subsidiary, LedgerX, as a derivatives clearing organization.
Warren, Whitehouse ask DOJ to hold Bankman-Fried accountable for FTX collapse --Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse have asked the Justice Department not to pull any punches as it investigates and seeks to hold accountable the executives at FTX who contributed to the crypto company's demise. FTX's customers face potentially steep losses after former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's empire spiraled into bankruptcy earlier this month. An attorney representing the firm told a judge Tuesday that a "substantial amount" of the group's assets have either been stolen or gone missing. Authorities in the U.S. and the Bahamas are investigating the FTX turmoil, including a probe by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York."As this situation unfolds, new facts will undoubtedly shed more light on how Bankman-Fried and his associates' deception has harmed FTX's customers, and customers of any company that was exposed to the contagion — and may reveal that the problems with the crypto industry extend well beyond FTX," the senators wrote in a letter sent to DOJ officials Wednesday."We urge the Department to center these 'flesh-and-blood victims' as it investigates, and, if it deems necessary, prosecute the individuals responsible for their harm," they said.Lawmakers in both the House and Senate, including Warren, have opened their own probes into FTX's collapse. A number of key committees are also planning hearings for next month.Warren and Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin previously sent a letter to Bankman-Fried and John J. Ray III, the new CEO and chief restructuring officer who oversaw the liquidation of Enron Corp., seeking additional information on the events leading up to the crisis."One thing is clear: the public is owed a complete and transparent accounting of the business practices and financial activities leading up to and following FTX's collapse and the loss of billions of dollars of customer funds," they wrote in that letter, which specified a deadline of Nov. 28 to comply with the request for information.
U.S. prosecutors opened probe of FTX months before its collapse - Long before Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX cryptocurrency empire collapsed this month, it already was on the radar of federal prosecutors in Manhattan. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York, led by Damian Williams, spent several months working on a sweeping examination of cryptocurrency platforms with U.S. and offshore arms and had started poking into FTX's massive exchange operations, according to people familiar with the investigation. The focus was on compliance with the Bank Secrecy Act, the people said. Authorities have used the law, requiring financial institutions take steps to prevent money laundering and terrorism financing, to go after crypto platforms that allegedly falsely claimed that they don't serve U.S. customers. Bahamas-based FTX operated one of the world's largest international crypto exchanges, as well as a separate and much more limited venue called FTX US that said it complies with the act. It's unclear whether prosecutors in Manhattan reached any conclusion in their probe before FTX — valued at nearly $32 billion in a January financing — collapsed, sending the crypto market into a dive and raising questions about the accuracy of its pledges to safeguard customer assets. That put the federal investigation into a new trajectory, the people said. Representatives for the U.S. attorney's office and FTX declined to comment. The monthslong sweep shows FTX's sprawling operations were raising questions even before billions of dollars in financial ties between the exchange operator and Bankman-Fried's Alameda Research Ltd. investment arm alarmed investors and led his empire to unravel. Prosecutors and regulators including the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission are now seeking help from new FTX Chief Executive Officer John J. Ray III, who took over as part of its bankruptcy proceeding and is navigating what he described as "a complete absence of trustworthy financial information." Last week, Ray told the bankruptcy court in a filing that his team had found loans of more than $1 billion made by Alameda to Bankman-Fried and other executives. The filing also alleged software was used to conceal the use of customer funds. Whether any such conduct broke laws will be left to prosecutors. So far, they haven't accused anyone of wrongdoing. Long known for its prowess in tackling complex financial crimes, the U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan has handled the lion's share of the government's crypto cases since digital assets came into vogue a decade ago. That includes a half-dozen in the year through October, roughly double the number brought by other Justice Department offices in that period, an analysis of federal dockets shows.
After FTX, crypto exchanges struggle to convince customers they're safe -Moves by cryptocurrency exchanges to reassure markets about their stability are having little effect on jittery users, who keep pulling funds from the venues.Platforms from Binance to Crypto.com have made full or partial disclosures outlining their assets since FTX.com unraveled last week. Yet clients' stampede for the exits has persisted, with exchange reserves of bitcoin, ether and stablecoins falling sharply, according to data from CryptoQuant.The problem is many so-called proof of reserves published so far have left out liabilities, haven't been vetted by outside auditors and don't provide clarity on which, if any, of the assets exchanges hold have been pledged as collateral for loans. With the disarray in FTX's finances now laid bare to the broader public, anything short of a complete accounting will likely fail to fully restore confidence, market watchers said."The issue is proof of reserves are a snapshot in time of funds in certain wallets," said Maya Zehavi, a cryptocurrency angel investor. "People need to verify the exchange's total liabilities, and that no client tokens were pledged as collateral, as well as the health of those assets put up as collateral."A full-blown crisis of confidence in exchanges would have dire consequences for the crypto industry because the venues often operate as brokers, custodians and clearing houses — meaning the collapse of one platform can kick off a daisy chain of failures reaching into every corner of crypto.Contagion from FTX is already spreading, with the crypto brokerage Genesis announcing on Wednesday that it's been forced to suspend redemptions at its lending unit.The same day, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss's Gemini Trust delayed redemptions in its Earn program. BlockFi, which has close links to FTX US, is preparing to file for bankruptcy, Bloomberg News reported this week.In FTX's case, oversight and record-keeping of assets were so poor that new CEO John J. Ray III compared it unfavorably with Enron, whose liquidation he oversaw. Advisors have located "only a fraction" of the digital assets that they hope to recover during the Chapter 11 bankruptcy, Ray said.The fact that FTX was able to keep such glaring deficiencies hidden for so long shows accounts must be audited and assets valued by third parties, some crypto executives said.Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, on Nov. 10 disclosed what it called a "snapshot" of its major token holdings and said more data will be shared later in a "full audited report." A Binance spokesperson said the exchange will publish audited reserves and liabilities in coming weeks."Proof of reserves doesn't require lawyers or traditional auditors," said Matt Luongo, co-founder of the blockchain privacy service provider Threshold. "The whole process is voluntary. Therefore, while this type of disclosure may have helped head off the FTX disaster, there is no proof that any centralized exchange doesn't have liabilities senior to its customers' deposits."The Austrian crypto exchange Bitpanda said on Tuesday that it had hired KPMG to verify that customer assets are covered by corresponding crypto funds in the exchange's wallets. Only four of 23 exchanges listed on an "assets transparency" tracker published by Coinglass have appointed auditors for their liabilities. The tracker doesn't mention Bitpanda. Still, audits may only be part of the solution.Some of the risks in crypto stem from the way the nascent market is structured, with exchanges carrying out functions that in traditional finance are distributed between multiple entities — the majority of which are regulated, and many of which are also publicly traded.That concentration of functions in crypto could lead to conflicts of interest and lack of transparency regarding client assets, said Jack McDonald, CEO of PolySign, which owns a crypto custodian and fund administrator.The intractable nature of those issues was highlighted in a press release issued Friday by Bybit, one of the largest crypto exchanges. In the statement, CEO Ben Zhou called on the industry "to step up together and help reassure nervous customers and governments."Yet Zhou also said the "complexity" of crypto companies means "it will take some months for Bybit to complete and provide a comprehensive and true picture of its accounts that is acceptable to every stakeholder and helps re-establish trust — rather than patchy information that could ultimately confuse."Many of finance's current safeguards were put in place after the 2008 global financial crisis, when a surge in delinquent U.S. mortgages caused a banking industry contagion, leading to a deep recession. Then, as now, opacity compounded the problems. In 2008, it was shaky mortgages packaged into complex securities; with FTX, it was financial entanglements with the trading house Alameda Research that reportedly involved customer funds and ultimately blew up Sam Bankman-Fried's empire. FTX is facing a probe by U.S. prosecutors. "The crypto market does not feature currently many of the safeguards of traditional market structure, and a lot of its recent issues are rooted in a lack of transparency," said Anish Puaar, head of European equity market structure at the trading firm Optiver. "One wonders whether a lot of this pain could have been avoided with better protections."
What does crypto look like after FTX? - For people hoping for a crypto-free day on FT Alphaville, we have bad news. Crypto is still doing its Thing. And there are still a lot of questions about what the space looks like in the wake of the FTX implosion (ie beyond the current Lord-of-the-Flies vibes).Around here we obviously hope we can go back to blissfully ignoring it. Purists hope that crypto will simply go back to its decentralised roots and build something beyond tradable JPEGs. But JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reckons that little may actually change, and centralised exchanges will continue to rule the roost.Panigirtzoglou also has a good summary of various regulatory efforts to tame crypto in his latest weekly note. Normally we might just dump this note in the Long Room (RIP), but we thought we’d at least put the main bits here for a bit of light Friday reading.Here you go. Not only has the collapse of FTX and its sister company Alameda Research created a cascade of crypto entity collapses and suspension of withdrawals but has initiated an intense debate about the future of the crypto ecosystem. How would the crypto ecosystem be changed following the collapse of FTX?As we argued previously the collapse of FTX is likely to increase investor and regulatory pressure on crypto entities to disclose more information about their balance sheets, to safeguard client assets, to limit asset concentration and will induce more diligent risk management including management of counterparty risk among crypto market participants. FTX in particular had been preferred over Binance by institutional clients such as hedge funds, so the past weeks events will likely change the way institutional investors interact with exchanges to ensure their assets are protected. Here are the main changes we envisage post FTX:
- A) Existing regulatory initiatives already underway are likely to be brought forward. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) bill which has passed most of the EU’s legislative processes except the final approval by the European Parliament. This final approval is likely to take place before year end. After that there would transitional period of up to 18 months before the regulation takes effect at some point in 2024. In our opinion the past week’s events could if anything lead to pressure to reduce this transitional period. The US has lagged Europe in terms of regulatory initiatives and has yet to introduce similarly comprehensive rules. To some extent this reflects fragmentation and disagreements among US regulators. Having said that there have been several regulatory initiatives in the US Congress (i.e. the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, the Digital Commodity Exchange Act, the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act, the Stablecoin Innovation and Protection Act, the House Financial Services Committee stablecoin bill) not necessarily consistent with each other..
- B) New regulatory initiatives are likely to emerge focusing on custody and protection of customers’ digital assets as in the traditional financial system. In the meantime, until these regulations come into place, both retail and institutional investors are already taking steps to protect their digital assets.
- C) New regulatory initiatives are likely to emerge focusing on unbundling of broker/trading/lending/clearing/custody activities as in the traditional financial system. This unbundling will have most implications for exchanges which like FTX combined all these activities raising issues about customers’ asset protection, market manipulation and conflicts of interest.
- D) New regulatory initiatives are likely to emerge focusing on transparency mandating regular reporting/auditing of reserves, assets and liabilities across major crypto entities including exchanges, brokers, lenders, custodians, stablecoin issuers etc. Again these regulations are likely to be imported from the traditional financial system, thus causing convergence of the crypto ecosystem towards the traditional financial system.
- E) Crypto derivative markets will likely see a shift into regulated venues with CME emerging as a winner. With several institutional investors such as hedge funds getting trapped via their derivative positions at FTX, there is likely to be greater shift towards regulated venues such as CME for both futures and options. Such shift would naturally increase the role of CFTC in crypto markets given US derivatives markets are regulated by the CFTC.
- F) We are skeptical of a structural shift away from centralized exchanges (CEX) into decentralized exchanges (DEX). An argument put forward for DEX was that the bundling of trading/clearing/settlement that centralized exchanges like FTX try to achieve, is more efficiently integrated into smart contracts in a non-custodial (i.e. a user remains in control of their private keys), permissionless and trustless way. This argument may face greater scrutiny given the likely regulatory initiatives noted in C above focusing on unbundling of these activities. And while there has been some increase in the share of DEX in overall crypto trading activity in recent weeks (Figure 12) this is more likely to reflect the collapse in crypto prices and the deleveraging/automatic liquidations that followed the FTX collapse. For larger institutions, DEXs typically would not suffice for their larger orders due to slower transaction speed or their trading strategies and order size to be traceable on the blockchain. As we mentioned previously in our publications until DeFi becomes mainstream it faces several hurdles:
I Agree: Don’t Regulate Crypto, Let it Burn. Making Good Progress on its Own by Wolf Richter - The last thing the crypto community – from the Bankman-Fried-bedazzled Silicon-Valley fiat-billionaire venture-capitalists down to the true believers – will listen to is another warning from another central bank about crypto and crypto exchanges and potentially losing “all your money.” And they’re certainly not going to appreciate the we-told-you-so commentary now emerging from central banks and regulators.The latest we-told-you-so came today in a speech from Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Jon Cunliffe. He said, “since September, the FCA [UK Financial Conduct Authority] has warned publically on FTX that “you are unlikely to get your money back if things go wrong.”And things went wrong. Central banks and other financial regulators are worried about crypto’s massive and tangled tentacles reaching into the fiat finance system – the issue of contagion beyond crypto.But this year, those tentacles have gotten chopped off, tentacle by tentacle, as crypto-companies and hedge funds, one after the other, imploded and took their customers’ funds with them. The most recent example was the spectacular implosion of FTX and its affiliated companies, including Alameda Research, leaving unspeakable chaos and huge financial holes behind. The debris of all this is going to get picked through over the next few years in bankruptcy court.So now the question arises: Why even regulate this thing? Why not let it self-destruct on its own before it gets large enough to pose a real contagion risk? Why not allow the unfettered and repeated huge losses of those users form a natural self-inflicted regulatory force that keeps the crypto space from ever getting large, thereby keeping the risks of contagion beyond crypto to a minimum?That sounds like a good idea to me. And that argument, following the FTX implosion, can be heard more forcefully in different locations.And even the Bank of England’s Cunliffe, today in his speech about crypto, gave this theory a nod, even as he outlined why crypto should be regulated. He referred to an essay in FT Alphaville, “Let crypto burn.”Cunliffe said in his speech:“It is, of course, possible that neither of these two reasons – investor protection and protection against financial stability risk – will be relevant because the very instability and riskiness of the world of unregulated crypto finance, most recently demonstrated by FTX, will in the end ensure that the sector cannot grow.“Indeed, some [the authors of the FT Alphaville article] have argued for regulators grappling with the crypto world to keep it outside the regulatory framework to ensure that users’ ‘caveat emptor’ concerns prevents both growth and connection with mainstream finance.”Instead of regulation, “It is far better to do nothing, and just let crypto burn,” said the authors of the FT Alphaville article, Stephen Cecchetti (chair, international finance at Brandeis International Business School) and Kim Schoenholtz (professor emeritus at NYU’s Stern School of Business).They said in their essay: “Actively intervening would convey undeserved legitimacy upon a system that does little to support real economic activity. It also would provide an official seal of approval to a system that currently poses no threat to financial stability and would lead to calls for public bailouts when crypto inevitably erupts again.“Finance is all about trust. The loss of trust from surging failures already is bringing about crypto’s demise. The market capitalisation of the myriad “coins” is down by about 75 per cent from its November 2021 peak.” I agree: let crypto burn; don’t regulate it.
Bitcoin (BTC) price struggles to rebound as Binance launches $1 billion recovery fund - Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading in the red Friday despite Binance’s efforts to calm markets down after the spectacular collapse of the U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, said yesterday that it established the Industry Recovery Initiative (IRI) to support the embattled crypto industry after the FTX collapse. Binance committed $1 billion to IRI “with an intent to ramp up that amount to USD 2 billion in the near future if the need arises,” the exchange said in a blog post. The company added that it received around 150 applications from companies interested to support the IRI, including Jump Crypto, Polygon Ventures, Aptos Labs, Animoca Brands, GSR, Kronos, and Brooker Group. “The mandate of this new effort is to support the most promising and highest quality companies and projects built by the best technologists and entrepreneurs that, through no fault of their own, are facing significant, short term, financial difficulties. What makes this initiative unique is the collaborative approach to restoring confidence in Web3,” it is further stated in a blog post. Still, Bitcoin price is trading near 2-year lows after failing to stage a relief rally on the back of the IRI launch. On Monday, the BTC price hit $15,460 - the lowest level seen since November 2020.
Lose $1.7 billion on $519 Million in Revenue? Bitcoin Miner SPAC Core Scientific Shows How. Bankrupt a Year after Going Public? by Wolf Richter - US Bitcoin miner and crypto-hosting-platform Core Scientific – the largest publicly traded crypto miner by computing power – which on October 27 issued a bankruptcy warning, nine months after going public via merger with a SPAC, reported on November 22, that it lost $435 million in the third quarter, on $162 million in revenues; and that it lost $1.7 billion in the first nine months of the year, on $519 million in revenues.“The Company anticipates that existing cash resources will be depleted by the end of 2022 or sooner,” it said. And that would be the end.The company lives by the price of bitcoin, and now dies by the collapsed price of bitcoin. It mentioned the word “bankruptcy” 35 times in its 10-Q filing with the SEC on November 22: its own potential bankruptcy filing, unless it gets via a divine miracle some “additional liquidity”; and the bankruptcy filing of its largest customer, Celsius.The fundamental rule in crypto-land is that every company is tightly connected by innumerable tentacles to lots of other crypto companies – borrowing from and lending to each other – which makes for smooth and efficient contagion within crypto-land. They all went to heaven together, and now they’re all going to heck together.The company, which is based in Austin, TX, blamed the threat of the bankruptcy filing on “the prolonged decrease in the price of bitcoin” – in Q3, “the average price of bitcoin declined to $21,324, compared to $32,502 for the three months ended June 30,” it said. Alas, those were the Good Times. The price of bitcoin has meanwhile plunged to $16,000.It also blamed “the increase in electricity costs.” It needs electricity in massive quantities to power its crypto mining rigs and data centers, and electricity is therefore one of its major input costs.And it blamed its “ability to meet its liquidity needs,” or rather lack of ability, and while at it, it blamed its debt covenants that it cannot comply with.Its reserves were down to $32 million in cash and just 62 Bitcoin as of October (about $1 million in fiat), down from over 8,000 Bitcoin earlier in 2022. It had sold those Bitcoin holdings to stay afloat as Bitcoin was plunging. At the same time, electricity prices soared. And because its stock price imploded, it couldn’t raise cash by selling more stock.Given its huge cash burn, that $33 million will be used up before year-end. That’s the message here.This is a lot to swallow for investors that had bought the hype and hoopla of a company that went public less than a year ago.Its shares [CORZ] have collapsed by 99% from the peak a year ago, after the SPAC merger was announced but before it was completed, to sheer nothingness ($0.13) today, another one of hundreds of astounding displays of how insidious the Wall Street hype-and-hoopla show had become in 2021 to dump something like this into the lap of the public. But nothing special in my huge and growing pantheon of Imploded Stocks:
Harvard paper to central banks: Buy Bitcoin! - Bitcoin was invented to circumvent the world’s central banks, so the idea that those banks would start buying Bitcoin in bulk ranks somewhere from counterintuitive to far-fetched. But after Western governments froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves early this year, speculation mounted that some central banks would acquire cryptocurrency as a form of insurance against financial blockades from the U.S. and its allies. In the months since, it has remained little more than speculation. But the idea has remained a fixation among Bitcoin investors, who tend not to support U.S. foreign policy objectives, and who view it as a good thing that crypto could provide a workaround. Bitcoiners’ hopes often revolve around the Gulf states, with their huge cash reserves and often-fraught relationships with the West. In August, aTwitter account inspired by the possibility, Sheikh Roberto, sprouted up to promote Bitcoin usage and slam the Fed in posts from El Salvador. Last week, we pressure-tested this idea in conversations with crypto entrepreneurs on the sidelines of the Milken Institute’s Middle East summit in Abu Dhabi. There, we picked up no hint that Gulf state central banks were considering Bitcoin purchases, despite their interest in blockchain technology.But elsewhere the idea is very much alive, at least in theory. A newworking paper on the subject by Matthew Ferranti — a fifth-year PhD candidate in Harvard's economics department and advisee of former Fed board governor Ken Rogoff, now a Harvard professor — has caused a minor splash.In it, Ferranti argues that it makes sense for many central banks to hold a small amount of Bitcoin under normal circumstances, and much more Bitcoin if they face sanctions risks, though his analysis finds gold is a more useful sanctions hedge. DFD caught up with Ferranti at Harvard’s Cabot Science Library to discuss the working paper, which has not been peer-reviewed since its initial publication online late last month.
Senate Democrats question if SoFi's crypto activities violate banking obligations — Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee in letters to SoFi Technologies and banking regulators questioned whether the bank's crypto activities are appropriate for the bank, especially given the recent collapse of FTX. The San Francisco-based company, according to the senators led by Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has two years as of January 2022, when itsacquisition of Golden Pacific Bancorp was approved, to divest from SoFi Digital Assets — a nonbank subsidiary that allows retail investors to buy and sell digital assets — or see that the subsidiary's impermissible digital-asset activities are in compliance with the law. Since then the company has "apparently" expanded these operations, according to the senators. "Two months after receiving regulatory approval, SoFi announced a new service allowing customers of its national bank to invest part of every direct deposit into digital assets with no fees," the lawmakers said. "The company publicly billed this service as 'the latest expansion of SoFi's offerings to make it simpler to get started with cryptocurrency investing.' "SoFi says it has no exposure to FTX, FTT token, Alameda Research, or Genesis, and that it doesn't engage in any other crypto financing activity other than allowing members to buy and sell cryptocurrency on its platform."SoFi takes our regulatory and compliance commitments seriously, including our non-bank operations within the digital assets space.," a spokesman said. "We believe we have been fully compliant with the mandates of our bank license and all applicable laws. Additionally, we maintain consistent, constructive dialogue with each of our regulators. Cryptocurrency remains a non-material component of our business. We look forward to sharing the requested information with the Senators in a timely fashion."Brown, along with Democratic Sens. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland and Tina Smith of Minnesota, sent a letter to the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and another to SoFi, pressing on SoFi's crypto trading activities. SoFi's trading operation poses "significant risks to both individual investors and safety and soundness," they said. Amid turmoil in the crypto market, banking regulators have been quick to point out that the banking system has remained largely insulated from the negative effects, but have warned that more crypto risk could creep into the traditional finance system if banks and crypto firms continue to integrate.
Evidence Grows that Crypto and Federally-Insured Banks Are a Combustible Mixture - By Pam and Russ Martens - The fallout from the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX and its missing billions of dollars of customer funds has, finally, galvanized some members of Congress to push back against the swarms of crypto lobbyists whose activities are clearly impacting the safety and soundness of U.S. banks.On Monday, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, along with Senators Jack Reed (D-RI), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), and Tina Smith (D-MN), sent a letter to federal banking regulators warning that SoFi, a federally-insured bank, potentially posed a risk to safety and soundness as a result of its digital asset trading activities. The Senators wrote as follows:“In January 2022, SoFi received approval from the Federal Reserve for the acquisition of Golden Pacific Bancorp, Inc. and a conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for the creation of SoFi Bank, N.A. SoFi completed the acquisition in February 2022. As part of the approval, the Federal Reserve provided SoFi with two years to divest from SoFi Digital Assets — a nonbank subsidiary that allows retail investors to buy and sell digital assets — or conform the subsidiary’s impermissible digital asset activities to the law. During this conformance period, SoFi has committed not to ‘expand [its] impermissible activities,’ except as specifically authorized by law. SoFi initially agreed to these terms, but since the acquisition, SoFi Digital Assets has apparently expanded its retail digital assets operations.“Two months after receiving regulatory approval, SoFi announced a new service allowing customers of its national bank to invest part of every direct deposit into digital assets with no fees. The company publicly billed this service as ‘the latest expansion of SoFi’s offerings to make it simpler to get started with cryptocurrency investing.’ SoFi’s own investor protection materials, however, warn customers that at least one token listed on SoFi Digital Assets is ‘a crypto pump-and-dump’ hazard with ‘no special use case or features’ and that ‘[it] might be among the most high-risk endeavors an investor can take.’ Troublingly, this conduct raises questions about SoFi’s compliance with commitments made in the January 2022 approvals and to meeting its ongoing obligations as a banking organization.“SoFi’s digital asset activities pose significant risks to both individual investors and safety and soundness. As we saw with the crypto meltdown this summer, where crypto-assets lost over $1 trillion in value in a matter of weeks, contagion in the banking system was limited because of regulatory guardrails. In the event of crypto-related exposures at SoFi Digital Assets ultimately require its parent company, bank holding company, or affiliated national bank to seek emergency liquidity or other financial assistance from the Federal Reserve or FDIC, taxpayers may be on the hook. Your agencies have publicly acknowledged these types of crypto-related risks. In fact, the Fed issued guidance detailing the risks posed by crypto-asset related activities to cybersecurity, anti-money laundering and countering of financing of terrorism efforts, consumer protection, and financial stability. Similarly, the OCC called out the volatility of crypto activities and the risks of the crypto ‘hype-driven economy’ to investors of modest means, and the FDIC issued an advisory warning of the risks to consumers when crypto companies misrepresent the availability of deposit insurance for crypto assets.” The Senators asked the banking regulators to force SoFi to comply with “all consumer financial protection and banking regulations.” You can read the letter to the banking regulators here and the very strong letter to SoFi’s CEO, Anthony Noto, here. How did the U.S. banking system become the playground of crypto billionaires? The answer is that they had a lot of help from some Republican members of Congress who sit on the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees. We have, to our repulsion, watched these Senators and Reps shill for the crypto industry during hearings for years as if they are actually the industry’s registered lobbyists. See our report: As Bitcoin Crashes 34 Percent in a Week, U.S. Congressman Ted Budd Pushes Bank Regulator to Approve More Crypto National Bank Charters. (God help us all, Ted Budd (R-NC) was elected as a U.S. Senator from North Caroline in the midterm election this month.)
Banks, fintechs both want more transparency for Fed master accounts -Banks and nonbanks alike want to know more about who can get an account with the Federal Reserve and how.Calls for greater transparency follow the Fed's establishment of a three-tiered evaluation process for master account applications. They also come as pending legislation and a lawsuitthreaten its autonomy on the matter.The Fed is already considering further changes to its master account management practices. Earlier this month it asked the public to weigh in on a proposed requirement of regional banks to make quarterly disclosures about the master account holders and applicants in their districts. But some are pushing for the central bank to go further.Paige Pidano Paridon, senior vice president and senior associate general counsel at the Bank Policy Institute, said the industry group would like the Fed to the application process for master accounts — which provide a single point of access for the central bank's various financial services — after the banking holding company application process. This would entail a published notice of intent and a public comment period. The Federal Reserve has started the process of making its master account application and service rolls public, but both banks and fintechs say the central bank should push master account transparency even further."Given the potential risks posed and the universal interest to maintain a safe and reliable payments system, it's important that [the public] have a chance to weigh applications," Pidano Paridon, said. "We also think that for purposes of ensuring the public, as well as those that already have access, that appropriate requirements and restrictions should be imposed … and made public."More disclosure about why master accounts are granted or denied could also benefit new entrants with novel business models, according to one regulatory attorney who requested anonymity because they consult both traditional banks and financial technology firms on master account practices. Further transparency is necessary, they said, given the lack of detail in the Fed's new evaluation guidelines."The criteria are just so mushy that you're not quite sure what you have to demonstrate," the attorney said. "Over time, mushy criteria can be OK once there's a track record of people actually applying and getting approved. But, right now, there's no such track record for non-banks — and to the extent banks are involved, there's simply nothing out there about criteria used to grant or deny."
Data shortcomings at Citigroup flagged in Fed-FDIC resolution plan review - Citigroup's data management practices raise questions about its ability to dissolve itself in an orderly fashion in the case of failure, bank regulators found. The New York-based bank was the only institution flagged by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in their review of resolution plans for the eight largest and most complex banks in the U.S., which was released Wednesday morning. Resolution plans, also known as living wills, outline how banks will dissolve in the event of material financial distress or failure without disrupting the broader financial system. The Dodd-Frank Act requires the eight largest and most complex domestic firms to submit targeted resolution plans to the Fed and FDIC for review every two years. In their latest review, focused on resolution plans submitted in 2021, the Fed and FDIC noted "serious weaknesses" within Citigroup's data quality and integrity management systems. These failings raise questions about the bank's ability to produce accurate financial information during periods of stress, the agencies concluded. FDIC acting Director Martin Gruenberg, in a written statement, said Citigroup's plan "requires urgent attention by the firm's senior management and board of directors." Gruenberg added that the finding highlights the importance of having sound resolution plans and adequate tools to see them through. "Simply stated, if a firm lacks the ability to successfully execute its resolution strategy, the credibility of a firm's plan for its rapid and orderly resolution under the Bankruptcy Code would be called into question," he said. In a written statement issued Wednesday, Citigroup said it has made "significant investments" into its data integrity and management capabilities and plans to make further improvements moving forward. "We will leverage that work to remediate the shortcoming identified today, as we acknowledge there is much more work to do," the bank's statement reads. "The result of these efforts will be more streamlined systems that improve the quality of our data as well as the speed with which it can be accessed."
Bank groups push back against FDIC appeals process -— A group of bank trade associations told the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that the agency's proposed compromise on its updated supervisory appeals process doesn't go far enough. The FDIC earlier this year under acting Chairman Martin Gruenberg disbanded an internal court for banks to challenge supervisory findings, and instead reinstated a board-controlled committee. The board-controlled committee, or the Supervision Appeals Review Committee, is less transparent than the industry would like, and more important, would still ultimately answer to the FDIC's board. Recently, the FDIC board voted on proposed amendments to the appeals guidelines that would expand and clarify the role of the agency's ombudsman, adding that person to the Supervision Appeals Review Committee as a nonvoting member who would monitor the supervision process after a bank submits an appeal. That hasn't been enough to appease banks, who still prefer the old model. In a letter to the FDIC, the Bank Policy Institute, American Association of Bank Directors, American Bankers Association, Consumer Bankers Association, Independent Community Bankers of America and Mid-Size Bank Coalition of America made a number of suggestions that they say would improve the independence of the process. "While we appreciate the agency's stated objective to enhance due process — and support certain aspects of the proposal such as a new requirement to share SARC information with both parties as a necessary safeguard to protect against one-sided information sharing — on the whole, the FDIC's most recent proposal sets forth only a patchwork of changes that do not fundamentally alter the shortcomings of the appeals process," the groups wrote. Among the recommendations, the bank groups suggest that the FDIC set minimum qualifications for voting members of the reinstated committee and allow banks to bring appeals directly to the committee. The lobbyists also support prohibiting ex parte communications during an appeal and requiring those that inadvertently occur to be documented and shared with both the SARC and the appealing bank.
How unrealized bond losses are hampering the banking industry -Increasing losses on banks' bond portfolios are becoming more than a mere annoyance, particularly for some smaller institutions. After this year's sharp rise in interest rates prompted massive losses across the bond market, banks are underwater on bonds they purchased when rates were low. Bond prices go down when rates increase and higher-paying bonds become available. The losses are likely to be temporary and only on paper. Still, banks are facing a higher risk that they'll have to sell the bonds before they reach their maturity date and return to their original value — thereby "realizing" what are currently "unrealized losses." In the meantime, the losses are lowering the value of banks' equity. That's because every quarter, banks have to adjust the value of any bonds they mark as "available-for-sale." Over the past three quarters, those values have fallen thanks to inflation and the Federal Reserve's rate increases. The bond losses are affecting banks big and small, though "for the smaller banks it is a bigger issue," said Michael Rose, a bank analyst at Raymond James. Their decreased equity levels could trigger restrictions on their borrowing from the Federal Home Loan banks and lessen their value as they look to buy other banks or sell themselves. Unrealized bond losses are also a growing source of investor hand-wringing, even as bank executives argue that they should not be a big concern. What follows is a look at four ways the issue is impacting banks.
- Buybacks have become less popular. Megabanks curtailed or cut their share repurchases earlier this year due partly to the unrealized bond losses, as their regulatory framework made those losses matter more. Tougher rules apply to the eight global systemically important banks — including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Bank of New York Mellon — and the major custody bank Northern Trust.Those banks have felt an impact from unrealized bond losses on their regulatory capital. As a result, they have less excess capital to distribute to shareholders, and they have adopted a more cautious tone on buybacks.
- Investors have become more concerned. Some investors are worried about banks' declining tangible common equity, although there's debate on whether those concerns are valid.
The concerns have escalated throughout the year, with a continuing climb in interest rates leading to quarterly declines in bond portfolios and coinciding with broader macroeconomic fears."When investors get nervous about the economy, they worry about levels of tangible common equity, and that level has been reduced significantly," - Some institutions risk hitting borrowing limits at the Federal Home Loan BanksSome smaller banks may be more concerned because of regulations that prevent them from borrowing from Federal Home Loan Banks if they have negative tangible capital. Thirty banks with Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. charters had negative tangible common equity ratios at the end of the third quarter, according to an analysis from Janney Montgomery Scott. The vast majority of those banks are privately held, and their median asset size is $228 million.
- Merger momentum has slowed as bank valuations take a hit. The unrealized bond losses may also be dampening short-term momentum for bank mergers."Academically, you should say it doesn't matter, but it surely does," "I think it's slowed the discussions from where they were in the first half of the year." The dampened M&A momentum is at least partly due to the bond losses' impact on banks' valuations — which decreases a bank's currency when it's involved in a deal that involves stock, not just cash.
Biden eases Trump-era restrictions for financial advisers on ESG - The Biden administration is making it easier for money managers to consider climate change and other environmental and social factors in retirement investments. The Labor Department on Tuesday issued a new final rule making it so that these fiduciaries can consider “the economic effects of climate change” in investments that they oversee.Assistant Secretary for Employee Benefits Security Lisa Gomez said in a statement that the rule was issued to end a “chilling effect” created by Trump-era restrictions on considering environmental and social factors in investing. “Climate change and other environmental, social and governance factors can be useful for plan investors as they make decisions about how to best grow and protect the retirement savings of America’s workers,” Gomez said. In 2020, the Trump administration issued a rule that was expected to discourage the consideration of environmental and social factors in this type of investing. Climate and social investing has become a hot topic in Washington and around the country. Republicans have criticized the practice and in some cases have sought to blacklist companies over alleged environmental and social governance investing. Meanwhile, environmental activists have pushed for financial institutions to drop fossil fuels from their portfolios.
Red states are where the anti-ESG action is — In the absence of a red wave in the 2022 midterms, Republicans are turning to states and other local governments to make the kind of changes they want to see on environmental, social and governance policies in the banking industry. Republicans failed to flip the Senate in the midterm elections and will have to wait another two years for a shot at the White House, meaning that any anti-ESG legislation in Congress is unlikely to pass. Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., the presumptive future chair of the House Financial Services Committee, is expected to question Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler on the agency's efforts to police climate disclosures at public companies, but that kind of oversight is about as far as leadership in that panel will allow. Statewide, it's a very different story. Republicans picked up five state financial officer seats — in Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada and Wisconsin — for state auditor, comptroller or treasurer. At least some of those races that flipped cited ESG policies in their races. Kansas state Rep. Steven C. Johnson, who beat incumbent Treasurer Lynn Rogers to become Kansas' next treasurer — a position that serves on the board of the $24.8 billion Kansas Public Employees Retirement System — said in a campaign news release that "eliminating woke ESG investment strategies" was central to his campaign. And in a number of states, legislation that would limit the degree to which banks and other financial institutions can engage in ESG investing is pending. State-level elections will have a large impact as to whether those bills or measures will move forward, and that will impact which banks and financial firms can be involved in those states' pension funds as well as other public retirement funds and state investment arms. Democratic-controlled states, meanwhile, are pushing back. On Monday, a group of attorneys general wrote to the heads of banking congressional committees, saying that ESG measures provide a holistic view of investments to consumers, rather than the investments being politically motivated. "Where the midterm will have the most effect is who got elected at the state level," said James McGinnis, counsel in the asset management group at Ropes & Gray and former adviser to McHenry. Other experts agree: Across the board, experts are looking at the results of officials elected to state-level positions rather than congressional ones to assess the future of ESG investing and how it could impact banks.
BankThink: Cracking down on 'woke' banks may be good politics, but it's bad policy | American Banker --On election night, Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. — who's expected to be the next chair of the House Financial Services Committee — made a point of calling out "woke" corporate policies as one of his likely targets over the next two years. "Fighting unsound policy," he said, "also happens to be good politics."McHenry is not alone in that assertion. State legislatures all over the country have been pushing back against environmental, social and governance policies — colloquially known as ESG — at larger banks that could limit or deny loans to companies whose business practices are incompatible with the lenders' broader societal goals. The emergence of those policies has been gradual but persistent over the last five years, beginning perhaps with divestment initiatives by Seattle and Davis, California, against banks that financed the Dakota Access pipeline back in 2017. Banks have also preemptively established ESG policies well beyond matters related to climate change, including firearmsmanufacturers and dealers, private prisons and hate groups.Every trend needs a backlash, and Republicans in Washington have been all too happy to oblige. Former Senate Banking Committee Chair Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, called on the biggest banks to continue to serve "politically disfavored" industries back in 2019. More recently, Texas and West Virginia have passed laws or rules that limit those states' business relationships with banks and financial institutions that have adopted ESG policies — just as several other states like California and New York have moved in precisely the opposite direction.Is ESG sound corporate policy? I don't really care. I think fossil fuels will end up costing more than renewable energy and the ability of renewable energy to comprehensively replace fossil fuels is probably inevitable. A lot of bankers who are thinking about where to invest or direct their financing efforts might feel the same way. If a bank wants to cut ties with gun manufacturers as a matter of policy, I have no doubt that those manufacturers will find someone to lend them money on acceptable terms.But while I'm agnostic about the efficacy of ESG to meaningfully advance desired social change, I'm not as agnostic about whether enacting anti-ESG policy would be harmful for banks and society at large. It would be, and its consequences fly in the face of the kinds of small-c conservative principles that Republicans supposedly espouse. The fundamental job of a bank is to take deposits and make loans, and there are risks on either side of that ledger. Since the advent of deposit insurance, the risk on the deposit side of the ledger, at least from the customer's perspective, has been eliminated, and the result of that change is that there is little difference from one bank to the next — checking and savings pretty much work the same from bank to bank. Yes, deposits are "sticky" — people tend not to change banks that much, even to attain better yields — but if customers are motivated to change banks, they can expect roughly equivalent basic services from one to another. And if one is concerned about climate change, gun violence or other social issues and thinks his or her bank is a bad guy, that can be all the motivation some customers need. That isn't necessarily the same for states, pension funds and other state-controlled money pots; if one's state chooses not to do business with a bank or firm that is eminently qualified to handle that government's inflows, outflows and credit needs because of its ESG policy, there may not be another bank equally qualified waiting in the wings to take on the business. Taxpayers may be getting worse or more expensive service for fundamentally political reasons — precisely the kind of motivation that the anti-ESG movement wants to prevent. As for lending risk, this is in the eye of the beholder. Efficient markets work when someone sees something and makes a move before everyone else does — and that applies for downside risks as much as it does for upside potential. If a bank decides that the reputational risk — a notoriously subjective question — outweighs the financial benefit of funding a pipeline or a gun store or a puppy mill, that's its call to make. And maybe it will be right, maybe it will be wrong. But so long as lenders are not discriminating against a protected class of individuals and are consistent in their policy, that's their choice.
Goldman Sachs to pay $4 million SEC penalty in ESG fund case Goldman Sachs Group will pay $4 million to settle U.S. regulators' claims that its asset management unit didn't properly weigh environmental, social and governance factors in some of its investment products.The Securities and Exchange Commission said that the Goldman Sachs Asset Management unit "had several policies and procedures failures involving the ESG research its investment teams used to select and monitor securities." The alleged misconduct occurred from April 2017 to February 2020, the SEC said in a statement on Tuesday.The unit didn't have any written policies or procedures for ESG research in one of the products from April 2017 to June 2018, and once they were put in place failed to consistently follow them prior to February 2020, the markets watchdog said. The SEC said the bank's unit didn't properly complete ESG questionnaires on companies it planned to include in an investment portfolio prior to their selection.The issues related to Goldman Sachs ESG Emerging Markets Equity Fund, Goldman Sachs International Equity ESG Fund and a U.S. Equity ESG separately managed account strategy, Goldman Sachs said in a statement. "These historical matters did not materially impact the investments' satisfaction of the ESG criteria contained in those policies and procedures," it said.The bank didn't admit or deny the regulator's findings. The SEC under Chair Gary Gensler has proposed stricter rules on fund names and more standardized disclosures for investment products that carry an ESG label. The agency has also brought cases over ESG disclosures and marketing, including one involving a unit of Bank of New York Mellon for allegedly falsely implying some mutual funds had undergone an ESG quality review.
Fraud is ramping up. So are financial institutions' efforts to thwart it. Customers who have come to expect deep discounts and sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday face a significantly greater risk of fraud during this time of the year. Experts say the primary means banks and credit unions have for reducing this risk is education.Between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday last year, fraud attempts increase by 25%compared to the rest of the year, according to data from TransUnion. The data comes from TransUnion's fraud prevention product Truvalidate, which screens billions of transactions each year from more than 40,000 websites and apps.The findings from TransUnion line up with how consumers report their own experiences. In a 2020 survey by Experian, one in four U.S. consumers said they had fallen for a fraud scheme during the holidays. Over the course of the year, three in four U.S. consumers report being targeted by at least one form of fraud, according to a survey AARP conducted last year.Amplify, a credit union in Austin, Texas, has responded to this heightened risk by ramping up its consumer education, according to Kat Cuoco, Amplify's vice president of enterprise risk management and compliance. "Our fraud department has partnered with our marketing area to push information to members so consumers can be aware of the trends we're seeing, and we really get their attention when it's something big," Cuoco said.On its website, Amplify provides information to members about password security, loan forgiveness scams, charity scams and other seasonal fraud for consumers to identify and avoid.The FBI also provides its own consumer guidance. According to the bureau, the two most prevalent kinds of holiday scams are nondelivery and nonpayment crimes. In a non-delivery scam, a buyer pays for goods or services they find online, but those items are never received. Conversely, a nonpayment scam involves goods or services being shipped, but the seller is never paid.According to the latest report from the Internet Crime Complaint Center, nonpayment and nondelivery scams cost people more than $337 million in 2021. Credit card fraud, which also increases during the holidays, accounted for another $173 million in losses.The FBI also warns consumers about auction fraud, where a product is misrepresented on an auction site, and gift card fraud, when a seller asks you to pay with a prepaid card. The bureau advises consumers to never wire money directly to a seller and to avoid paying for items with prepaid gift cards, and to opt for credit cards that provide fraud protection over debit cards, which do not.
CFPB, FTC defend service members' right to sue under Military Lending Act - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Federal Trade Commission contend that a Florida judge's decision in a case involving the Military Lending Act will undermine the ability of service members to get redress under the anti-predatory-lending law. The two agencies wrote in an appeals court brief filed Monday that the legal standard applied by a lower court — in dismissing a lawsuit brought by a member of the armed services — would substantially curtail enforcement of the 16-year-old law. "And it would circumvent Congress's judgment that allowing American service members to enforce their rights in court is essential to our national security," the CFPB and FTC wrote. The lawsuit was brought by Emmanuel Louis, who was an Army private in December 2020 when he and his wife took a trip to a resort operated by a timeshare company called Bluegreen Vacations. During the vacation, the couple was allegedly subjected to a nine-hour-long, high-pressure sales pitch. Louis and his wife eventually signed paperwork obligating them to pay $11,950 for membership in the company's Vacation Club, and to borrow money to finance most of the cost. Under the Military Lending Act of 2006, lenders may not charge more than 36% interest on certain loans to active-duty members of the military or their relatives. The law also bans mandatory arbitration provisions in loans to service members. The plaintiffs alleged that the Bluegreen Vacations loan misrepresented the interest rate, did not make certain required disclosures, and included a mandatory arbitration clause, all in violation of the Military Lending Act, and was therefore void. But in May, U.S. District Judge Rodolfo Ruiz dismissed the suit, concluding that the plaintiffs did not have the standing necessary to sue. He pointed to a lack of evidence that the alleged violations resulted in any concrete harm to the plaintiffs. In other words, there was no evidence that the Louises would have acted any differently if Bluegreen Vacations had complied with the letter of the Military Lending Act. "Notably, there is no indication that the required disclosures or the inclusion of an arbitration provision — both of which constitute the alleged MLA violations — impacted plaintiffs in any way," Ruiz wrote. Last week, the plaintiffs appealed the decision to the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, arguing that they did suffer harm.
BankThink: Weighing the costs and benefits of Federal Home Loan banks | American Banker --It is still the first inning of the Federal Housing Finance Agency's centennial review of the Federal Home Loan Bank System. It was an honor to be invited to participate, along with six industry and consumer leaders, in the agency's inaugural roundtable discussion about the Home Loan banks.In preparation for the roundtable, I set out to answer the foundational question: "What does it cost the taxpayers to subsidize this over $1 trillion enterprise?" The answer is $6.3 billion a year.It is hard to make sense of this number when it stands alone. However, its significance comes into sharp focus when it is juxtaposed with affordable housing and community development, the only perceptible public benefit produced by the Home Loan banks.By my estimate, only about 5% of the $6.3 billion spent on the banks each year is directed to housing and community development. The remainder amounts to benefits for member institutions.The Home Loan Bank System's mission is to support housing and to meet communities' economic development needs. To the extent that only 5% of the system's activities have any plausible bearing on that mission, the Home Loan banks are clearly failing. This means that their mission either must be changed, or the amount of funds devoted to housing must be materially increased.At the roundtable, I quantified for the first time the banks' subsidy. This sparked an immediate reaction from the head of the trade association representing the eleven Federal Home Loan banks. Without offering any assessment of his own he demanded to know how I produced the number. Since the circumstances did not allow for a full exposition of the government subsidy of the banks, I do so here.In 2003, well before the financial crisis of 2008, the noted Federal Reserve Board economist Wayne Passmore calculated the taxpayers' subsidy of government-sponsored-enterprise debt at 40 basis points. His research was based on the then "implied" government guarantee of the debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.Fast forward to 2008 and the implied government guarantee of GSE debt became an "actual" payout when the FHFA rescued the two GSEs using $180 billion in taxpayers' dollars. In the years since, this redefinition of what implied support truly means has been reflected in the narrow spread between Home Loan bank debt and U.S. Treasuries providing empirical evidence that, at a minimum, a 10-basis-point boost over the pre-financial-crisis 40-basis-point calculation is today's yardstick for measuring the government's subsidy.Applying the 50-basis-point government sponsored discount to the Home Loan banks over $1.1 trillion debt outstanding produces at least a $5 billion annual government subsidy of Home Loan banks' debt.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October" --Note: This is as of October 31st. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October = The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased by 1 basis point from 0.69% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.70% as of October 31, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 350,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance increased 1 basis point to 0.31%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased 8 basis points to 1.41%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 11 basis points to 1.03%. “The overall share of loans in forbearance increased slightly in October, but it was a mixed bag by investor type. The forbearance rate for Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac loans increased, and there was a decline in portfolio and PLS loans in forbearance,” . “Several factors were behind the first monthly increase in forbearances in 29 months, including the effects of Hurricane Ian in the Southeast, the diminishing number of loans bought out of Ginnie Mae pools and placed in portfolio, and the fact that new forbearance requests have closely matched forbearance exits for the past three months.” “The overall share of loans that were current last month decreased 15 basis points to 95.70%, with 44 states reporting declines (not delinquent or in foreclosure). Florida, which was hit the hardest by Hurricane Ian, experienced a 49-basis-point drop in the share of loans that were current – the biggest decline of all states.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. The share of forbearance plans had been decreasing, although there was a slight increase in October. At the end of October, there were about 350,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in October --Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.66%, down from 0.67% September. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.32% in October 2021.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.The serious delinquency rate was at 0.60% just prior to the pandemic - almost back to that level.Note that multi-family delinquencies have been increasing and were at 0.15% in October.
Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in October, Impacted by Hurricane -From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Prepayment Activity Hit Record Low in October as Rates Topped 7%; Mortgage Delinquencies Up 4.5% in First Signs of Hurricane Ian Impact
• Prepayments fell 16.5% to a single-month mortality (SMM) rate of 0.48%, well below the previous record of 0.55% and the lowest recorded since at least 2000 when Black Knight began reporting the metric
• The national delinquency rate rose 4.5% in October to 2.91% – up 12 basis points since September – driven by a sharp 9.4% rise in 30-day delinquencies
• Florida led the jump in new early delinquencies (+19K) – with the state delinquency rate rising 53 basis points to 3.42% -- giving an initial indication of Hurricane Ian impact
• Loans 60 days past due ticked up 2.9% nationally, while those 90 or more days delinquent saw continued – if modest – improvement, inching down another 1.5% in October
• October’s 19.6K foreclosure starts represented a 7% increase that partly reversed September’s decline, but are still 55% below pre-pandemic levels
• Foreclosure starts were initiated on 4% of existing serious delinquencies in October, up slightly from September but still less than half the rate seen in the years leading up to the pandemic
• Active foreclosure inventory held steady as volumes have remained subdued in 2022 due to still historically low foreclosure start levels
According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent increased 4.5% in October compared to September and decreased 22% year-over-year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.91% in October, down from 2.78% in September. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased slightly in October at 0.35%, from 0.35% in September. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 555,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 48,000 properties year-over-year.
Purchase, refinance applications both increased last week -Mortgage applications increased for the second week in a row after an almost two-month slide, as a drop in interest rates helped drive up both purchases and refinances, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.The MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of application activity based on surveys of association members, climbed 2.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the weekly period ending Nov. 18. But application volumes were still 68.8% lower than their level of one year ago when the 30-year conforming rate was less than half of where it is today. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index swung up 3% week-over-week, but it still stands 41% below activity from 12 months ago. However, if rates continue trending downward, potential home buyers will likely be drawn back to the table, according to Joel Kan, MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist."The decrease in mortgage rates should improve the purchasing power of prospective home buyers, who have been largely sidelined as mortgage rates have more than doubled in the past year," he said in a press release."However, refinance activity is still more than 80% below last year's pace," Kan said. Although the Refinance Index rose 2% from the prior week, it was 86% lower year over year. Last week, the share of refinance applications relative to overall volume equaled 28.4%, growing from 27.6% seven days earlier. The yearlong drop in refinance numbers echoed similar findings released earlier this month from Black Knight's Optimal Blue, which determined they accounted for just 14% of rate locks in October. While spurring interest among borrowers overall, the recent rate slide has taken some of the air out of enthusiasm for adjustable-rate mortgages, which fell to an 8.8% share of activity compared to 10.6% one week prior, according to the MBA. ARMs had previously made up 10% to 12% of volume over the past two months as rates surged, Kan said.
Investor Purchases of Single-Family Houses Plunged 32% in Q3, Plummeting the Most in “Pandemic Boomtowns” by Wolf Richter - Investor purchases of single-family houses plunged by 32.3% in Q3 compared to the same period last year, according to Redfin, based on county records in the 40 most populous metropolitan areas. Beyond the lockdown Q2 2020, this was the steepest percentage plunge since the Housing Bust.Investor purchases of condos and co-ops plunged by 27.5%; of townhouses by 17.9%, and of multifamily buildings with 2-4 units by 18.3%.The chart shows the count of homes purchased by category of homes; and on the right, the year-over-year percentage plunge. These “investors” are defined as institutions or businesses that buy residential properties. (chart via Redfin):The increase in investor purchases in recent years also shows the impact of a major shift: build to rent, where homebuilders build entire subdivisions specifically as rental houses, fill them with tenants, and then sell the whole development to a big fund manager. Build to rent was the hottest development in the housing market before the downturn.“Real estate investors are retreating because the prospect of substantial home-price declines puts them at risk of losing money,” said Redfin in the report, echoing what the largest buyers of single-family houses – American Homes 4 Rent, Invitation Homes, and others – have said in their earnings calls.For example, American Homes 4 Rent, which in recent years has focused on buying build-to-rent developments, said that it had cut its purchases by 80% year-over-year to “allow the market time to recalibrate and stabilize” because home prices have yet to come down enough. “We’re starting to see some price discovery happening. But we’re still early in that process.” It said that these homebuilders still want prices that “you would have seen in March.”According to Redfin, “It’s unlikely that investors will return to the market in a big way anytime soon. Home prices would need to fall significantly for that to happen.”Some of the metros that investors had piled into with particular devotion are now seeing the steepest plunge in investor purchases.“Investors expanded in these areas during the pandemic to cash in on soaring rental prices and home values, and are now pulling back as these markets slow down relatively quickly”:Investor purchases increased year-over-year in only five of the 40 metros that Redfin analyzed: Philadelphia (+46%), New York (+11%), Baltimore (+8%), Cleveland (+5%), and Newark (less than 1%).In those 40 metros combined, investors purchased 65,000 homes of all types, accounting for a share of 17.5% of all home purchases, down from a share of 19.5% in Q2 and from 18.2% a year ago, as overall purchases have plunged, and investor purchases have plunged a faster than individual purchases.This trend was also outlined by the National Association of Realtors through October, with nationwide existing home sales plunging 28% year-over-year, and the investors’ share of those plunging sales dropping further.
New Home Sales Increase to 632,000 Annual Rate in October -- The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 632 thousand. The previous two months were revised down. Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.5 percent above the revised September rate of 588,000, but is 5.8 percent below the October 2021 estimate of 671,000.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply decreased in October to 8.9 months from 9.4 months in September.The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 470,000. This represents a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate."The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In October 2022 (red column), 48 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 51 thousand homes were sold in October.The all-time high for October was 105 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for October was 23 thousand in 2010.This was above expectations, however sales in the two previous months were revised down.
New Home Sales Increased in October; Completed Inventory Increased - The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales are now below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply decreased in October to 8.9 months from 9.4 months in September. The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal). "The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 470,000. This represents a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate."Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.The inventory of completed homes for sale (red) - at 61 thousand - is up from the record low of 32 thousand in 2021 and early 2022. This is getting close to the normal level of completed homes for sale and increasing.The inventory of homes under construction (blue) at 298 thousand is very high, and about 6% below the cycle peak in July 2022. The inventory of homes not started is at a record 111 thousand.The fourth graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In October 2022 (red column), 48 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 51 thousand homes were sold in October. The all-time high for October was 105 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for October was 23 thousand in 2010.The next graph shows new home sales for 2021 and 2022 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in October 2022 were down 5.8% from October 2021.Year-to-date, new home sales are down 14.2% compared to the same period in 2021.The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate.There are 1.2 months of completed supply (red line). This is getting close to the normal level.The inventory of new homes under construction is at 5.7 months (blue line). This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints.And a record 111 thousand homes have not been started - about 2.1 months of supply (grey line) - about double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices and demand.And on prices, from the Census Bureau:The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2022 was $493,000. The average sales price was $544,000. The following graph shows the median and average new home prices. The average price in October 2022 was $544,000 up 15% year-over-year. The median price was $493,000 up 11% year-over-year. This suggests a slowdown in price increases, although both the median and the average are impacted by the mix of homes sold.
Massive Cancellations Make Mess of Already Low New-House Sales. Inventory Glut at Deep Housing Bust 1 Level. Buyer Traffic Plunges Wolf Street - Another thing: inflation. Just when you thought the construction-cost spike was abating, it hit a new record. By Wolf Richter Sales of new single-family houses have been zigzagging along low levels for months. In October, they rose 7.5% from September, after having plunged 11% in September, according to the Census Bureau today. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000 houses, they were down 5.8% from the already low levels a year ago, and down 37% from two years ago. These sales are based on signed contracts between buyer and homebuilder, and they’re no indication of how many of those deals actually close. And those sales that actually close are far lower amid a huge wave of cancellations. Homebuilders have been lamenting those cancellation rates for months. But those cancellations are not reflected here. We’ll get to them in a moment. A similar plunge occurred in sales of previously owned homes: -34% from peak in October 2020 and -28% from a year ago. Homebuilders reported plunging traffic of prospective buyers of new single-family houses, according to the National Association of Home Builders last week. Its index of Traffic of Prospective Buyers has plunged for eight months in a row and in November fell below the May 2020 level.Beyond the lockdown-low of April 2020, it was the lowest since 2012, during Housing Bust 1. But this time, the descent has been far faster than during Housing Bust 1And many of those folks that do show up to look at a house, and that then do sign a sales contract are massively getting second thoughts, followed by buyer’s remorse, followed by canceling those contracts – and those spiking numbers of cancellations are not included in the new-house sales data by the Census Bureau above, which just tracks signed contracts.According to the homebuilder survey by John Burns Real Estate Consulting – with a sample size of roughly 20% of all new home sales – the cancellation rate spiked to 25.6% in October, up from a rate of 7.9% in October 2021 and from 10.9% in October 2019. Over a quarter of the signed contracts are cancelled! Chart via Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns (click to enlarge):The cancellation rates vary substantially by region: In the Southwest, the cancellation rate spiked to 45%. Nearly half of all contracts signed are then cancelled! This was up from a cancellation rate of 9% a year ago. In Texas, the cancellation rate spiked to 39%, up from 12% a year ago.This kind of huge spike in cancellation rates renders the sales-contract signings data a practically irrelevant figure because a cancelled contract is no longer an actual sale (chart via Rick Palacios Jr., John Burns, click to enlarge):
Egg Prices At Grocery Stores Hyperinflate Ahead Of Thanksgiving --Egg supplies are tightening nationwide as more than 37 million egg-laying hens have died this year due to the severe bird flu outbreak, accounting for a whopping 10% of production. The result has been soaring egg prices at the supermarket ahead of the holiday season. "Prices for eggs climbed more than 10% from September to October, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data. Prices in October were 43% higher than the same month a year ago. Eggs had the biggest jump by far on a monthly and yearly basis in any category in the US Department of Agriculture's food price outlook," Bloomberg reported. Consumers paid an average of $3.42 for a dozen Grade A, large eggs last month -- up from $1.82 a year earlier. Readers have been well-informed this year about the devastating bird flu outbreak ravaging commercial poultry farms nationwide. "The recent spike is extraordinary in the shell-egg as well as egg-product markets," Bill Lapp, president of Advanced Economic Solutions, a consulting firm specializing in food economics, told CNBC. Besides eggs, food inflation remained at the highest levels since the late 1970s, crushing the pocketbooks of Americans as they drain their savings and rack up credit card debt to buy essentials. Breakfast was the cheapest meal of the day but has since become expensive, thanks to soaring egg, bread, meat, and orange juice prices. The last bird flu outbreak was in 2015. This current outbreak appears much worse in terms of just egg prices.
Inflation-Shocked Americans Plan To Cut Back On Christmas Gifts, Donations To Charity –- As Americans feel the Grinch of inflation and wages struggle to keep up with consumer prices, retailers and charities nationwide are preparing for a light holiday season, the Wall Street Journal reports.U.S. consumers and businesses have trimmed spending plans for gifts, charitable contributions and holiday events, data show. The penny-pinching threatens to spoil the year-end for many, especially firms and nonprofits that tally their largest share of sales and donations in November and December. -WSJAccording to an October Census Bureau survey of households, 41% of Americans, or around 95 million people, said they were having difficulties paying for essential household expenses, vs. 29% a year earlier."We’re hopeful for a strong giving season, but we’re not counting on it," said said Thomas Tighe, chief executive of Direct Relief, a medical-assistance nonprofit that typically takes in around $2 billion per year in donated medicine, cash and supplies which they distribute around the world.Despite a strong job market, a little cushion in savings accounts, and early signs that inflation may be slowing, the high cost of living has unnerved Americans. According the Deloitte consulting’s 37th annual holiday shopping survey, people plan to buy an average of nine gifts this year v s. 16 last year, and plan to spend less time shopping than they did last year.According to the University of Michigan, household sentiment over the past six months is comparable to the credit-crisis, when unemployment was off the charts and the financial system was at the precipice. The Journal notes that the index "echoes wary levels of the 1970s, when inflation climbed to double digits."In an August Bankrate survey of 2,415 adults, 84% of holiday shoppers will employ tactics to save money this year using coupons, discounts, buying less, and shopping for cheaper items or just making presents themselves.Meanwhile, the Toy Association - which represents companies that make 96% of all toys sold in the US, says this will be a season of price cuts. What's more, analytics firm DataWeave predicts apparel prices are set to fall for thousands of retail items. Of note, Gap Inc. is offering discounts as high as 60%.High inflation seemed to restrain holiday-season shopping over the past eight decades. Eleven times since World War II, the consumer-price index has equaled or exceeded 6% around holiday time; this year it was at 7.7% as of October. Consumer spending had an average growth rate of 1.2% in those years, compared with a rate of 3.4% in years with lower inflation, Commerce Department data show.American consumer spending has been on a downward trend for months. After jumping by more than 8% last year, adjusted for inflation, consumer spending grew less than 2% during the first nine months of this year. -WSJ
US Manufacturing & Services Surveys Plunge "Deeper Into Likely Recession" Despite US macro data surprising to the upside for the last few months (generally on dismal expectations), US Manufacturing & Services surveys have been trending lower and analysts expected this morning's preliminary November S&P Global PMI data to continue that trend.. and they did but very dramatically.S&P Global US Manufacturing plunged from 50.4 to 47.6 (contraction), well below the 50.0 expectation. This is the lowest since May 2020.S&P Global US Services tumbled from 47.8 to 46.1 (contraction), below the 48.0 expectation.Contributing to the decrease in the headline manufacturing figure was a renewed fall in output and a sharper decline in new orders. Demand conditions were stymied by inflation and economic uncertainty, according to panellists, with new sales falling at the quickest rate since May 2020. Alongside challenging domestic demand conditions, new export orders contracted at a sharper pace.Excluding the initial pandemic phase in the first half of 2020, the rate of decline in the headline Services figure was the second-fastest on record. Panellists often stated that the impact of inflation and interest rates on customer disposable income had dented demand conditions. In line with weak demand, new business fell at a solid pace in November. The second successive monthly decrease in new orders was the sharpest seen since May 2020. Commenting on the US flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:“Business conditions across the US worsened in November, according to the preliminary PMI survey findings, with output and demand falling at increased rates, consistent with the economy contracting at an annualised rate of 1%. “Companies are reporting increasing headwinds from the rising cost of living, tightening financial conditions – notably higher borrowing costs – and weakened demand across both home and export markets. “Skill shortages also remain a worrying constraint on expansion, but there is better news on supply chains, with supplier performance improving in November for the first time for over three years. “While the reduced supply chain stress is partly a symptom of lower demand, the alleviation of supply delays removes a key driver of inflationary pressures and has helped moderate the overall rate of input cost inflation to a near two-year low. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales. Hiring has also slowed to a crawl so far in the fourth quarter as firms focus on reducing costs. “In this environment, inflationary pressures should continue to cool in the months ahead, potentially markedly, but the economy meanwhile continues to head deeper into a likely recession.”
Two Largest Railroad Unions Split Over Labor Deal As Christmas Strike Looms --The votes appear to be in for the two largest railroad unions. WSJ reported Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET) said 54% of members who participated in the vote would accept the five-year labor deal. However, the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation Workers (SMART-TD) rejected ratifying the labor agreement. BLET and SMART-TD represent 62,000 engineers and conductors, or about half of all unionized rail workers. SMART-TD said it would head back to the negotiating table with the railroads for a revised deal with a Dec. 8 deadline. If no agreement is struck by the deadline, strikes could begin as soon as Dec. 9. "SMART-TD members with their votes have spoken, it's now back to the bargaining table."This can all be settled through negotiations and without a strike," said SMART-TD President Jeremy Ferguson.SMART-TD said 50.87% of members voted against the labor contract. Peter Kennedy, director of strategic coordination research at BMWED, told Axios that he's surprised about the no vote:"This is the best pay package I've seen in my career. "If employees are willing to vote that down because of the lack of paid sick time, that tells you something.""Our expectation is that no matter what happens, Congress is still going to need to step in," Scott Jensen, director of issue communications at the American Chemistry Council, told Axios.Any strike could damage the US economy and risk reversing multiple quarters of supply chain easement. It's why the Biden administration will try to do everything in its power to avert a strike next month. "But whether a strike will occur is still unclear. Congress could intervene before the December deadlines by crafting legislation that would require the unions to accept the agreements, with the possibility of binding arbitration or other ways to address contentious issues," FreightWaves said.
Freight Demand Has Not Found The Floor - Container imports, rail intermodal shipments and truckload demand have fallen from their lofty peaks during the pandemic era and may be a better indicator of how inflation will be tamed in the coming months than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) itself. Container import bookings measured by FreightWaves’ Inbound Ocean TEUs Index (IOTI) are now only roughly 6% higher than they were in November 2019 after averaging 80% above pre-pandemic levels through most of 2021. Loaded intermodal container volumes on the rails (ORAILL) are down 7% versus mid-November 2019 levels. The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), a measure of shipper requests for truckload capacity, is now only 9% higher than it was the week before Thanksgiving in 2019 after averaging nearly 50% above pre-pandemic norms from July 2020 to March 2022. Demand destruction has occurred at a much more significant level than suggested by the dollar figures that drive a lot of the macroeconomic data. Dollar values are noisy and measure emotion as well as supply and demand imbalances. The scarcity effect is a prime example of this and has been one of the main drivers of inflation over the past two years. The CPI that is representative of inflation, the Fed’s No. 1 enemy, is still moving higher from an annual basis thanks to rising supply costs and companies still passing along upstream cost increases that occurred over the past two years. Looking at the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is focused more on upstream production costs, that direction has already changed and has been slowing since June. Transportation costs are a portion of this figure. The point is that scarcity is diminishing. Supply chain congestion is easing. Consumer conditions have diminished from a purchasing power perspective. It takes time for this all to fully work its way into macroeconomic figures and behavior to change fully. The transportation sector has been on the front end of both the economic boom and its recent decline. The reason for this is that transportation is the backbone of the goods economy. All goods, unfinished and finished, need to be moved at some point. Raw materials move ahead of production and represent the furthest upstream view of aggregate demand. Finished goods moving to brick-and-mortar stores and fulfillment centers are also represented in transportation data. While truckload and import demand may not have fully eroded back to pre-pandemic levels, the direction and time of the year suggest that it won’t be long until we are there. Seasonally speaking, retail volumes tend to spike just prior to and around the holidays, but there is little evidence of that at this point.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 240,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending November 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 240,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 221,000 to 221,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Union representing 55,000 Ontario education workers calls off strike, endorses sellout agreement - In a display of utter disdain for the overwhelmingly low-wage workers they claim to represent, the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) agreed to a concessions-filled contract Sunday for 55,000 Ontario school caretakers, education assistants, early childhood educators, and administrative staff. The union leadership’s most immediate concern in announcing the tentative agreement was to prevent school support staff from walking off the job today. They did so, because the union bureaucrats feared that the education workers’ struggle could rapidly escape their control and become a direct political challenge to Ontario’s Doug Ford-led Progressive Conservative government and its agenda of wage cutting and capitalist austerity. The agreement unveiled by Ontario School Boards Council of Unions (OSBCU) lead negotiator Laura Walton and widely hated Education Minister Stephen Lecce Sunday afternoon is a contemptible sellout that meets none of the workers’ demands. Having originally raised the demand for an 11.7 percent annual wage increase, Walton touted a $1 per year rise, which amounts to approximately 3.59 percent, as a great “victory.” With official inflation running at 7 percent, and price rises for groceries and other basic necessities over 10 percent, even the original demand would barely have kept pace with inflation. According to City News journalist Richard Southern, the government and CUPE agreed as part of the deal to “form a task force to tackle absenteeism.” In other words, CUPE has pledged to further increase the workloads on already overwhelmed staff, while cutting real wages and backing the government’s refusal to make available additional funds to hire more workers. Walton admitted that the four-year deal announced Sunday is no different from the offer made by hard-right Premier Doug Ford and Lecce on Wednesday of last week, which prompted CUPE to issue a five-day strike notice. No additional funds were offered by Ford and Lecce to hire education assistants for every classroom, and more early childhood educators and librarians to reduce staff-student ratios. Walton’s admission begs the question as to what precisely CUPE negotiators and government officials were doing between Wednesday and Sunday. The only credible explanation has thus far been provided by the World Socialist Web Site, which noted in its initial analysis of CUPE’s issuing of a strike notice that it was a cynical maneuver to mollify rank-and-file anger over the union leadership’s demobilization of their courageous struggle. Walton already told membership meetings last Wednesday that her bargaining team had reached a “middle ground” with the government on wages, i.e., by totally abandoning workers’ demands and seeking to impose a major real-terms pay cut. But she and the entire union leadership clearly feared that announcing such a massive betrayal without some militant posturing would have been too much for workers to stomach. Workers increasingly recognize this fact. Typical comments from education workers to the WSWS following the announcement of yesterday’s sellout included: “I think they wanted to demoralize and demobilize the membership. Why didn’t they announce the deal on Wednesday if nothing changed?”; “I don’t understand how they can call off the strike when the membership hasn’t voted yet”; and “Laura is very good at emotional manipulation and gaslighting to fit a narrative.”
Mental health of teachers, teens takes big COVID-19 hit - The COVID-19 pandemic extracted mental health tolls from both teachers and young teens, with the former—remote instructors in particular—experiencing more anxiety than other workers, and the latter reporting depression owing to financial stress, according to two new US studies.In the first study, published yesterday in Educational Researcher, James Madison and Johns Hopkins university researchers evaluated mental health among randomly selected Facebook users responding to the daily online US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey. The researchers parsed data from nearly 3 million adult respondents—including 130,000 teachers—from Sep 8, 2020, to Mar 28, 2021.Teachers were at 40% higher risk of reporting anxiety within the previous 7 days than were healthcare workers, 20% more likely than office workers, and 30% more likely than workers in other occupations, such as military, farming, and legal professions. Teachers with a remote role were 60% more likely to report feeling isolated than their in-person counterparts, and female teachers had 70% higher odds of anxiety than their male peers.Compared with teachers, healthcare, office, and other workers were significantly less likely to report anxiety (odds ratios [ORs], 0.70, 0.81, and 0.78, respectively). Likewise, healthcare workers had slightly lower odds of reporting depression (OR, 0.95) and a sense of isolation (OR, 0.96) than teachers. Office and other workers, however, were significantly more likely than teachers to say they felt isolated (ORs, 1.20 and 1.10, respectively).Teachers instructing students remotely were at significantly more risk of depression (OR, 1.12) and isolation (OR, 1.56) than those with in-person roles. Across all professions, women were 90% more likely to report anxiety, 40% more likely to have depression, and 20% more likely to say they felt isolated. In the study on pandemic teen mental health, researchers from Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) mined data on 9,720 US adolescents who responded to at least one survey fielded by the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study, a sample of more than 10,000 US children 11 to 14 years old, from May 2020 to May 2021. Average age was 12.9 years, 47.8% were girls, 18.2% were Black, and 77.6% were White.Participants had data on prepandemic household income and mental health. The research was published yesterday in The Lancet Regional Health-Americas.The authors noted that the COVID-19 pandemic has affected not only global public health, but has worsened financial problems in already-struggling families and contributed to newfound financial strain in others.Over 70% of adolescents said their families lost wages during the pandemic. Teens in families that sustained lost income were more likely to be Black (19.5% vs 12.2%), Hispanic (22.0% vs 12.9%), and living below the poverty line (15.2% vs 4.2%) than those without financial losses. These populations also reported higher levels of stress about the financial toll.Family financial losses contributed to depression among participants. While adolescents in all income groups whose families experienced loss of income amid the pandemic reported more depressive symptoms (average, 15.3 vs 14.8 symptoms) than those who didn't, the effect was most evident in those from low-income households, who also reported more stress (average, 7.7 vs 7.3 symptoms) but no difference in substance-use patterns.
University of California strike begins second week: “We need a society that works for everyone, not just the capitalists at the top” - Today marks the beginning of the second week of the strike by 48,000 academic workers in the University of California (UC) system. The action is the largest strike of academic workers in United States history, pitting graduate student instructors (GSIs), postdocs, researchers and other academic workers against the Democratic Party-controlled UC administration and Board of Regents. The strikers, who are members of the three different locals of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union, are demanding a 100 percent salary increase—from an impossibly low $24,000 a year to $54,000—to address California’s skyrocketing rents and other living expenses. The strike has galvanized workers throughout UC’s 10 campuses and far more broadly. The UAW bureaucracy is attempting to smother the strike as it did the 2020 wildcat strike and grade boycott by limiting the action to an “Unfair Labor Practice” work stoppage, not a strike over economic demands. This would allow the UAW bureaucracy to shut the strike down any time it claims management has resumed “good faith negotiations,” even if UC administrators continue to reject the workers’ just economic demands. However, it is precisely the paltry wages and exorbitant costs of living and hunger which have driven academic workers into struggle. But workers have reported to the WSWS that UAW bargainers are already suggesting they are ready to drop the demand for a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to increase wages in line with inflation. Anger is mounting as workers continue to be left in the dark about bargaining. On Sunday night, UAW bargainers canceled a planned livestream bargaining session for student researchers at the last minute. The bargaining committee arrogantly justified its secret talks with management by declaring, “We had to close the zoom room because the university wanted to have a chat with our bargaining team before writing an on-the-record proposal. The university wanted to discuss concepts that we proposed this past week as part of our wage proposal. We had a lot of questions for them, too. The conversation was productive, and we hope that this results in them responding with an actual proposal very soon.” If the bargainers really represented striking students they would have replied to management’s request for backroom talks with the statement: “You can go to hell. Anything you have to say to us, you can say in front of our membership.” But that is not what they did. Instead, they entered into talks behind the backs of striking workers. This shows the contempt of the UAW apparatus for rank-and-file workers. Livestreamed talks are for show. When there are issues of real substance, these will be discussed behind closed doors. This only underscores the necessity for striking workers at every campus to elect representatives to a rank-and-file strike committee, which will oversee all negotiations, ensure all talks are livestreamed, and empowers the membership to countermand any undemocratic decisions to ram through a bogus agreement, which ignores their essential needs.
University of California Comes to a Standstill as Academic Workers Strike -Nearly 50,000 academic workers at the University of California launched a historic strike on November 14 after contract negotiations with their employer failed. Postdoctoral scholars, researchers, trainees, fellows, graduate student instructors, readers, and tutors, who are from 10 UC campuses across the state and are unionized with United Auto Workers, walked out of their jobs. Such workers are not traditionally associated with militant labor actions as intellectual work has historically been well-compensated in the United States. But, as universities have increasingly adopted corporate models of operation, the same sort of delineation in pay seen in other industries has taken hold in academia, with administrative executives earning top dollar while rank-and-file workers have seen their wages shrink relative to inflation. At the top of workers’ list of demands is better pay, one that is tied to the cost of living, and especially the cost of housing.“What the UC is proposing in terms of… small percent increases in annual salary, essentially that results in a net loss” to workers, says Joyce Chan, a postdoctoral scholar in neurosciences at UC San Diego. Chan, who serves on the bargaining team for UAW 5810, is referring to the fact that California is one of the most expensive statesto live in. She says, “our proposals are not only realistic, but we feel they are necessary.”The university’s bargaining position can be boiled down to an expectation that its core academic workers simply have to accept a life of hardship. UC Provost Michael Brown, in a letter responding to the union’s demand, wrote, “Tying compensation directly to housing costs… could have overwhelming financial impacts on the University.”But Chan counters that “30 to 80 percent of our income goes toward making rent alone.” Indeed, Brown did not dispute the fact that rent consumes too much of a graduate student’s paycheck. He only countered that it would be too hard for the university to do anything about it. In other words, if workers cannot afford to live, that’s their problem.According to FairUCNow.org, a website set up by the UAW unions involved in the UC contract negotiations, academic workers “do the majority of teaching and research at UC, yet UC is refusing to offer us a fair share of the record-setting grant and state funding that our labor brings in.”Chan points out that “our working conditions are our student’s learning conditions”—a logic familiar to one adopted by unionized school teachers in K-12 public schools. “If the UC meets our demands for fair compensation, we would be far more able to focus on the teaching, on the research, on everything that makes the University of California great,” she adds. In addition to sending a message to the university that workers demand better than what is being offered, the strike is also alerting the entire university community to the long-standing plight of graduate students and postdoctoral workers. The sight of thousands of UAW members rallying and picketing at UC campuses has inspired solidarity from faculty members who rely on the labor of their researchers and teaching assistants. James Vernon, chair of the Berkeley Faculty Association, addressed a UAW picket on UC Berkeley’s campus, saying, “The system is broken and you’re going to help fix it and we are here as faculty to support you in that effort.”
Professor Implies Student Is a 'Cyber Terrorist' for Objecting to 'the Problem of Whiteness' Class --A University of Chicago teaching fellow implied that a student is a “cyber terrorist” after he objected to a class she was set to teach called “The Problem of Whiteness.”“In recent years, whiteness has resurfaced as a conspicuous problem within liberal political discourse,” the description of a class called “The Problem of Whiteness” reads.The University of Chicago course, which will be taught by teaching fellow Rebecca Journey in the spring of the 2022 – 2023 school year, uses Critical Race Theory to analyze “whiteness.” The course “examines the problem of whiteness through an anthropological lens, drawing from classic and contemporary works of critical race theory.”Those who take the course will “approach whiteness as a “pigment of the imagination” with “worldmaking (and razing) effects” by “attending to the ways in which various forms of social positioning and historical phenomena intersect in the formation of racial hierarchy.” Daniel Schmidt, a student at the University of Chicago, criticized the course on Twitter, calling it an “egregious example” of “anti-white hatred.”At my college, @UChicago, a class called “The Problem of Whiteness” will be taught in the Winter.Since I began college a year ago, I've documented all the anti-white hatred I've seen on campus. Without a doubt, this is the most egregious example.*THREAD* pic.twitter.com/mdASZqYxlk — Daniel Schmidt (@RealDSchmidt) November 1, 2022 Journey postponed the course, which is now set to take place in the spring semester of the 2022 – 2023 school year. The teaching fellow defended the course and attacked Schmidt in an article from WBEZ Chicago, an NPR affiliate. The article, archived here, claims that Schmidt’s Twitter post helped fuel the “national misinformation campaign against critical race theory.” It also includes statements from Journey, who claims that Schimdt’s post “was a malicious attack not just on me as a teacher, but on anti-racist pedagogy writ large.”
Science Magazine - A viral arsenal (why SARS-CoV-2 is so difficult to prevent) SARS-CoV-2 wields versatile proteins to foil our immune system’s counterattack. Alpha, Beta, Delta, Omicron, BA.5—with each new SARS-CoV-2 variant or subvariant, the coronavirus seems to hone its ability to infect and spread between people. Although vaccines, drugs, and immunity from prior infections are allowing more and more people to dodge severe cases of COVID-19, the coronavirus has already killed more than 6 million people, according to the World Health Organization, and the true toll may exceed 18 million. Some virologists worry COVID-19 is here to stay, with SARS-CoV-2 potentially sickening people once or more a year as adenoviruses and other coronaviruses that cause the common cold do. One key to the virus’ success is its ability to neutralize the body’s immune response, thanks to its arsenal of proteins. Over the past 3 years, investigators have begun to explore those viral countermeasures. They’ve shown that many of SARS-CoV-2’s molecules manage to shield the virus—at least temporarily—from host immunity, allowing the invader to replicate and spread to more people. Underpinning SARS-CoV-2’s counterattack is the versatile suite of proteins that it coerces infected cells to manufacture from its RNA code. Researchers still disagree about how many proteins the virus’ cellular victims make—estimates range from 26 to more than 30—but SARS-CoV-2 deploys more weapons than most other RNA viruses. The Ebola virus, for example, makes do with only seven proteins.
New COVID variants BQ.1, BQ.1.1 dominate - The virus that causes COVID-19 is bringing more variants our way, requiring a few changes to the fight against it.The BA.5 variant of omicron, which has dominated the U.S. since early summer, is fading fast. According to data released Friday, half the cases in the U.S. are now due to two descendants of BA.5, called BQ.1 and BQ.1.1.Not much is known about those two variants, but the severity and duration of disease seem similar to the other omicrons, and milder than the original and delta variants.The biggest challenge from the new variants will be for people who are immunocompromised because of disease or medications. Treatments designed to prevent and treat infection in the immunocompromised won't work against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. The omicron variant that caused so many infections last winter is still around, but it has split into many subvariants. The two subvariants – BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 – now account for half of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.BA.5 now accounts for 24% of cases. Lab studies suggest the viral descendants of BA.5 and BA.2, which includes all the new dominant variants, might cause slightly more severe disease than BA.1 or the original omicron, said Jeremy Luban, a professor of molecular medicine, biochemistry and molecular biotechnology at UMass Chan Medical School.But it's not clear whether that's true in the real world, he said, as lab studies can't capture factors like human behavior. The new variants are clearly more transmissible because they are taking over and making people sick despite previous vaccinations and infections, he said in a Thursday news conference with other members of the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness. People who got the bivalent booster will be more protected against a severe COVID-19 infection compared with those who are unvaccinated or got a vaccine long ago. In a study posted Friday, Pfizer and its vaccine partner BioNTech saythat the latest booster increases the level of neutralizing antibodies against both BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which protect against infection. Moderna reported similar results for its booster earlier in the week, and it said last week that its bivalent shot also showed “robust neutralizing activity” against the BQ.1.1 variant, suggesting it offers some protection against the newest strains.
As 2 Subvariants Surpass BA.5, Concerns Emerge About Another New COVID Strain BN.1 – Subvariants BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 have since taken over, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, which showed the two account for approximately 44% of new COVID infections, NBC News reported. BA.5 was responsible for approximately 30% of all cases, according to the most recent data. They aren't the only variants to surface recently, however. BN.1 appeared on radars this week and has since been added to the CDC's weekly tracker. It made up approximately 5.1% of cases in the U.S. and 4.9% cases in the Midwest from the week starting Nov. 13. Officials say that the new strain is most prevalent in the Southeast, making up more than 7.5% of cases in an area that includes Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. The news comes as cases begin to slowly trend upward as northern residents begin to spend more time indoors. According to the latest CDC estimates from Nov. 16, 280,771 new COVID cases per week were reported in the U.S., a slight decrease from the 289,884 reported a week earlier. In Illinois, cases have largely flattened in recent weeks after an increase in October, but officials remain concerned that cases could rise with more residents spending time indoors and around loved ones during the holiday season.
Distinct Neutralizing Antibody Escape of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Subvariants BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BA.4.6, BF.7 and BA.2.75.2 – PMC - Abstract: Continued evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of several new Omicron subvariants, including BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BA.4.6, BF.7 and BA.2.75.2. Here we examine the neutralization resistance of these subvariants, as well as their ancestral BA.4/5, BA.2.75 and D614G variants, against sera from 3-dose vaccinated health care workers, hospitalized BA.1-wave patients, and BA.5-wave patients. We found enhanced neutralization resistance in all new subvariants, especially the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants driven by a key N460K mutation, and to a lesser extent, R346T and K444T mutations, as well as the BA.2.75.2 subvariant driven largely by its F486S mutation. The BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants also exhibited enhanced fusogenicity and S processing dictated by the N460K mutation. Interestingly, the BA.2.75.2 subvariant saw an enhancement by the F486S mutation and a reduction by the D1199N mutation to its fusogenicity and S processing, resulting in minimal overall change. Molecular modelling revealed the mechanisms of receptor-binding and non-receptor binding monoclonal antibody-mediated immune evasion by R346T, K444T, F486S and D1199N mutations. Altogether, these findings shed light on the concerning evolution of newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants.
COVID Vaccine Trials Didn't Monitor Menstrual Changes. Researchers Say It's Part of a Bigger Problem. -- NBC News reported: When women started reporting longer periods and heavier-than-normal bleeding after getting COVID vaccines last year, there was little data to back it up.Although they made up around half the participants in COVID vaccine trials, women were not asked about any menstrual changes as part of that process. Since then, several studies have revealed that COVID vaccines can indeed induce short-term changes in menstrual cycles.So a growing chorus of researchers is calling for further study of vaccines’ effects on menstruation. Collecting this type of data during the COVID vaccine trials, they say, could have prevented distress among those who experienced abnormal changes to their cycles and assuaged fears about the shots at a time when misinformation abounded. In an editorial published Thursday in the journal Science, Dr. Victoria Male called on future trials to ask people about period changes and to take respondents seriously if they report such side effects.
Covid: Omicron boosters aren't very effective against mild illness - The new omicron Covid boosters probably aren't very effective at preventing Covid infections and mild illness, but they will likely help keep the elderly and other vulnerable groups out of the hospital this winter, experts say. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a real-world study published this week, found the boosters are less than 50% effective against mild illness across almost all adult age groups when compared to people who are unvaccinated. For seniors, the booster was 19% effective at preventing mild illness when administered as their fourth dose, compared to the unvaccinated. It was 23% effective against mild illness when given as their fifth dose. Though the vaccine's effectiveness against mild illness was low, people who received the boosters were better off than those who did not. The booster increased people's protection against mild illness by 28% to 56% compared to those who only received the old shots, depending on age and when they received their last dose. The Food and Drug Administration authorized the boosters in late August with the goal of restoring the high levels of protection the vaccines demonstrated in late 2020 and early 2021. At that time, the shots were more than 90% effective against infection. But the first real-world data from the CDC indicates that the boosters aren't meeting those high expectations. "The boosters give you some additional protection but it's not that strong, and you shouldn't rely on it as your sole protective device against infection," said John Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College. Moore said people at higher risk from Covid have every reason to get a booster since it modestly increases protection. But he said common sense measures such as masking and avoiding large crowds remain important tools for vulnerable groups since the boosters aren't highly effective against infection. The CDC study looked at more than 360,000 adults with healthy immune systems who tested for Covid at retail pharmacies from September to November when omicron BA.5 was dominant. The participants received either the booster, got two or more doses of the old shots or they were unvaccinated. It then compared those who tested positive for Covid with those who did not. The study did not evaluate how well the boosters performed against severe disease, so it's still unclear whether they will provide better protection against hospitalization than the old shots. The CDC in a statement said it will provide data on more severe outcomes when it becomes available.
Covid vaccine booster myocarditis risk: Fourth dose unlikely to be recommended by ATAGI for under-30s - Fourth vaccine dose unlikely to be approved for under-30s due to myocarditis risk Australia’s vaccine advisory body is unlikely to approve a second Covid vaccine booster for under-30s due to the increased risk of myocarditis and diminishing benefit of successive doses. Currently, Australians considered most at risk of severe illness and those aged 30 and over are eligible to receive a fourth dose three months after their third dose. With the country staring down a new Omicron wave in the lead-up to Christmas, some young people who are approaching a year since their booster shot are clamouring for another jab. But Professor Allen Cheng, former co-chair and current member of the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI), told The Sydney Morning Herald on Saturday that it was likely the current vaccine schedule would remain as is, given the heightened risk of heart inflammation in young people. “A 30-year-old who gets Covid is probably not going to get into any trouble with it as opposed to a 60 or 70-year-old,” Prof Cheng said. “If it has been a long time since [an older person] got their last dose then we start to worry. “A 30-year-old with … three doses will be optimally protected.” He added, “Vaccinations are beneficial and protective even for younger people but the more doses you get, the less benefit you derive from them and then we start to worry about causing side effects.” In a statement, an ATAGI spokesman said while it was “not possible to pre-empt changes” to the Covid vaccine program, “ATAGI continues to meet regularly and, should new evidence become available, ATAGI will consider and update recommendations as required”. “The current Covid-19 vaccine booster recommendations remain unchanged for those under 30 years of age,” he said. “ATAGI notes the evidence to support an additional booster recommendation for the under-30s is less certain than for older individuals or those at high risk of severe disease from Covid-19 infection.” He noted the primary goal of the vaccination program is to “minimise the risk of severe disease, including hospitalisation and death”. “A second Covid-19 booster dose aims to provide additional protection to those with the highest risk factors for severe disease,” he said. “The Australian government supports the ATAGI advice to stay up-to-date with vaccinations as providing optimal protection against severe disease and hospitalisation from Covid-19. This includes those under 30 years of age.” Meanwhile on Tuesday, Health Minister Mark Butler announced ATAGI had decided against approving a fifth dose. Mr Butler said ATAGI had considered international evidence, as well as local data, and “decided not to recommend” the third booster at this point in time. He said ATAGI was likely to implement new booster recommendations in early 2023 in preparation for winter. “ATAGI reiterated that they are continuing to actively review the role of booster doses,” Mr Butler said. “They noted in that, in their view, any reduction in transmission in this current what appears to be a building wave, any reduction in transmission by adding a fifth dose to the system would, in their words, likely be minimal.”
Risk for newly diagnosed diabetes after COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis -- There is growing evidence that patients recovering after a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection may have a variety of acute sequelae including newly diagnosed diabetes. However, the risk of diabetes in the post-acute phase is unclear. To solve this question, we aimed to determine if there was any association between status post-coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection and a new diagnosis of diabetes.We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies assessing new-onset diabetes after COVID-19. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases were all searched from inception to June 10, 2022. Three evaluators independently extracted individual study data and assessed the risk of bias. Random-effects models estimated the pooled incidence and relative risk (RR) of diabetes compared to non-COVID-19 after COVID-19.Nine studies with nearly 40 million participants were included. Overall, the incidence of diabetes after COVID-19 was 15.53 (7.91–25.64) per 1000 person-years, and the relative risk of diabetes after COVID-19 infection was elevated (RR 1.62 [1.45–1.80]). The relative risk of type 1 diabetes was RR=1.48 (1.26–1.75) and type 2 diabetes was RR=1.70 (1.32–2.19), compared to non-COVID-19 patients. At all ages, there was a statistically significant positive association between infection with COVID-19 and the risk of diabetes: <18 years: RR=1.72 (1.19–2.49), ≥18 years: RR=1.63 (1.26–2.11), and >65 years: RR=1.68 (1.22–2.30). The relative risk of diabetes in different gender groups was about 2 (males: RR=2.08 [1.27–3.40]; females: RR=1.99 [1.47–2.80]). The risk of diabetes increased 1.17-fold (1.02–1.34) after COVID-19 infection compared to patients with general upper respiratory tract infections. Patients with severe COVID-19 were at higher risk (RR=1.67 [1.25–2.23]) of diabetes after COVID-19. The risk (RR=1.95 [1.85–2.06]) of diabetes was highest in the first 3 months after COVID-19. These results remained after taking confounding factors into account.After COVID-19, patients of all ages and genders had an elevated incidence and relative risk for a new diagnosis of diabetes. Particular attention should be paid during the first 3 months of follow-up after COVID-19 for new-onset diabetes.
Covid long-haulers turn to unproven treatments in desperation - For the burgeoning population of covid long-haulers, there is an abundance of new treatment options: Specially formulated nutraceuticals imported from India that promise to “get you life back from covid.” Pure oxygen delivered in a pressurized chamber. And, if time and money are no obstacle, a process known as “blood washing” that’s available in Cyprus, or $25,000 stem cell treatments in the Cayman Islands.Months-long waits at long-covid clinics combined with the sluggish pace of research have left vulnerable patients clamoring for immediate care as manufacturers bring novel remedies to market, often with little data behind them.“I have tried, I would say, as many different things as anyone could do in my situation,” said Donna Davis-Doneghy, a 62-year-old accountant with Hearthside Food Solutions in London, Ky., who has been tormented by headaches since coming down with covid in November 2020. “People will say to me, ‘Here’s a phone number,’ and off I go chasing something different,” said Davis-Doneghy, whose treatment regimen has ranged from acupuncture and Botox to nerve-block injections and vitamin infusions.Long covid has taken to new heights a medical conflict that shows up with cancer and other dire diagnoses: the tension between the desire for evidence and the pressing needs of patients who are suffering. In their rush for relief, patients are turning to unproven treatments, putting them at risk of potentially harmful health effects as well as having their hopes dashed and their wallets emptied. Doctors often follow the practice of prescribing drugs off-label, not for the purpose the Food and Drug Administration originally approved them for.“You want to protect people from charlatans,” said Harlan Krumholz, a professor of medicine at the Yale School of Medicine. “We need to resist the temptation to adopt tests and treatments without sufficient evidence to justify their use.”But until researchers discover the mechanism — or, more likely, mechanisms — that cause long covid, clinicians are having to rely on their experience treating other illnesses.“We’re kind of stuck,” said Michelle Haddad, a neuropsychologist who runs a long-covid clinic at Emory Rehabilitation Hospital in Atlanta. “I can define areas where you have impairments and how impaired you are. I can tell you what works in other, similar conditions. But I don’t have a magic pill.”The scale of the problem — and opportunities for profiteering — are increasing as the number of Americans reporting long-lasting symptoms ramps up to as many as 15 million adults. Data released this summer by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that almost 15 percent of the population has had long covid, or symptoms that lasted three months or longer after the acute infection.Many long-haulers describe being devastated by disabilities that range from fatigue to brain fog and body-wracking tremors. Facing disbelief from their families and physicians, and frustrated by the slow pace of science, they are turning to social media to share ideas for relief.While some patients report getting insurance coverage for the treatment of some symptoms, such as migraines, many end up spending thousands of dollars, out of pocket. Robert Harris, a 48-year-old veteran in Texas, estimates he has paid $25,000 for treatments, from over-the-counter supplements to the horse dewormer ivermectin and hyperbaric oxygen. “I can’t figure out what research is being done, what treatments have been approved,” he said.The $1.15 billion Recover program, awarded nearly two years ago to the National Institutes of Health, is aimed at understanding the biological basis of long covid. Establishing the safety and efficacy of potential treatments involves a further step — setting up randomized controlled trials. Although NIH recently announced its intent to investigate the potential impact of the antiviral Paxlovid, results are not expected until 2024, reinforcing some scientists’ argument for a more agile research model to match the urgency of the moment.
I Just Want to Get Better': A Teacher With Long COVID Retires Earlier Than She'd Hoped --Betsy Peterson spent the first half of her career in IT and advertising, then stayed at home raising kids for 11 years. In 2005, she went back to work, and started a new caerer: teaching technology classes at public K-12 schools in Massachusetts. She loved her job, her students, and her colleagues.But at the start of this year, her personal life hit a rough patch. Her dad died in March after contracting a virus at his nursing home. Not long after, she contracted COVID. Her case was mild at first, but an array of troubling symptoms followed.She ended up retiring in April at age 59, years before she had hoped to. This is her story, in her own words. (The following interview, conducted on Nov. 2, has been condensed for length and clarity. Education Week did not name the district so Peterson could speak freely about her experience.)The brain fog is the debilitating part. I contacted my colleagues, ‘Could I borrow some of your lessons and just teach them until I get my brain back?’ But I couldn’t make any sense of them.Executive function is the cornerstone of what teachers have to have. You’re trying to deliver a lesson and keep kids in line and be alert for active shooters in the hallway.I would try to call the doctor to get some information. If I got an answering machine, I would write a note, the note would go missing in my house for three weeks. Everything was written on sticky notes, everything was [set to] alarms so at least I would remember to take my pills. I thought maybe this is the start of dementia.I also have shortness of breath, fatigue upon exertion, dizziness when I stand up, GI symptoms. I didn’t have any of these long COVID symptoms while I was sick with COVID. Because I had gone out for emotional distress with all that was going on with my dad, everyone involved was presuming the cognitive issues I was having were from the stress.I worked in a low-income district with kind of at-risk kids. It was a great district to work in, but they were really irritated by me being out. They had to use their building sub to cover my spot. It’s COVID, it’s a struggle for them. Nobody wants to sub anymore.My school demanded I come back at week 11, after I had used up my FMLA [family and medical leave.] I was not able to. I asked if I could use my personal days, or my bereavement days. They said no.I said, ‘You told me I was entitled to 12 weeks.’ They said, ‘We applied some time to sick days taken back in December.’ Why would you do that? They said, ‘Really, you’ve had enough time at this point. You need to be back in on April 27th.’ I resigned in April. I think that their tiredness around the situation was probably more wrapped up in their tiredness from COVID. I don’t think it was about me.
Covid hospitalized him for 453 days. Now he’s home for the holidays. - Covid-19 put life on hold for Dub Crochet.The Bellaire, Tex., man had contracted a bad case of the coronavirus disease in August 2021 before being confined to a hospital for months — and keeping him from enjoying milestones and holidays.He missed the birth of his new grandson. He wasn’t home to host Thanksgiving dinner last year. Nor was he out of the hospital in time to celebrate his 70th birthday.Most of his doctors were not optimistic that he’d be able to leave the hospital at all. And if he did, doctors told Crochet’s wife, he would probably be in a vegetative state. But after 453 days in the hospital recovering from the disease and an array of complications, Crochet rolled out of the facility in a wheelchair to the cheers of doctors and nurses on time to celebrate Thanksgiving and Christmas at home for the first time in over a year.Crochet headed home in a new phase of the pandemic when, for the first time in the United States, more people who have received at least the primary series of a coronavirus vaccine are dying of covid-19 than those who have not, according to an analysis conducted for The Post’s Health 202 by Cynthia Cox, vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation. Fifty-eight percent of coronavirus deaths in August were people who were vaccinated or boosted, the analysis showed. Although the unvaccinated still have a higher chance of dying of covid-19, the disease can kill vaccinated people because the preventive medicine’s efficacy eases over time. U.S. health officials have urged people to keep their vaccinations current by getting booster shots.
Brain Changes Detected in Those Suffering Long COVID, New Study -The brains of some COVID sufferers were changed by the disease, a new study utilizing specialized MRI machines has uncovered. On Monday, the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA) released its findings after using the special type of MRI machine to gauge the long-term effects of COVID. The scans revealed significant brain abnormalities in people post-COVID that may explain cognitive issues, anxiety and sleep issues, according to a statement from RSNA. Researchers studied and identified changes to the brainstem and frontal lobe in patients, sometimes even six months after the COVID infection, RSNA said. The affected brain regions are linked with fatigue, insomnia, anxiety, depression, headaches and cognitive problems, according to the study. "Our study highlights this new aspect of the neurological effects of COVID-19 and reports significant abnormalities in COVID survivors," said study co-author Sapna S. Mishra, a Ph.D. candidate. For the study, researchers used susceptibility-weighted imaging to gauge the impact of COVID-19 has on the brain. This type of imaging is frequently used to detect and monitor many neurologic conditions including microbleeds, brain tumors and stroke, according to RSNA. The researchers analyzed the data of 46 COVID-recovered patients and 30 healthy control patients and found that patients with long COVID commonly recorded symptoms like fatigue, sleeplessness, lack of attention, and memory issues. "This study points to serious long-term complications that may be caused by the coronavirus, even months after recovery from the infection," Mishra said. "The present findings are from the small temporal window. However, the longitudinal time points across a couple of years will elucidate if there exists any permanent change." Americans who survive COVID are at a 20 percent likelihood of dealing with long COVID symptoms well after their infection, according to a large study from the Centers for Disease Control, released January.Among adult survivors of COVID-19 under age 65, 1 in 5 continued to deal with at least one symptom of long COVID such as brain fog, blood clots, kidney failure, respiratory issues, cardiovascular problems and muscular conditions. The risk of long COVID was even higher for virus survivors over age 65, with 1 in 4 dealing with lingering symptoms after their initial illness. They were also at a higher risk of kidney failure and neurological conditions than the younger age groups. The study looked at the medical records of nearly 2 million Americans to compare the health conditions of those who had COVID-19 and those who did not. The study extended from March 2020 to Oct. 2021. The most common long COVID symptoms were respiratory issues and muscle or joint pain.
Long COVID could change your brain, researchers say - New research has indicated that COVID-19 may be correlated with lasting changes in the human brain.Through analyzing MRI scans six months after patients have recovered from COVID-19, researchers with the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA) have begun considering long-term mental complications, which may be a result of the disease’s neurological impact.The research is an effort to better understand reported symptoms largely associated with “long COVID” -- including difficulty concentrating, headaches, sleep problems, pins-and-needles sensations, and depression or anxiety. "Group-level studies have not previously focused on COVID-19 changes in magnetic susceptibility of the brain, despite several case reports signaling such abnormalities," study co-author Sapna S. Mishra said in an RSNA press release. "Our study highlights this new aspect of the neurological effects of COVID-19 and reports significant abnormalities in COVID survivors." By analyzing advanced brain imaging, and weighing susceptibility for changes in blood, iron, and calcium, the study aimed to detect and monitor various neurologic conditions, including vascular malformations, brain tumors, strokes, and microbleeds. Researchers evaluated imaging data of 46 COVID-recovered patients – all within six months of recovery -- and 30 scans of patients who have not recently contracted COVID. Results showed that patients who recovered from COVID-19 had minor changes in the frontal lobe and brain stem compared to healthy controls. The clusters obtained in the frontal lobe primarily show differences in the white matter. "These brain regions are linked with fatigue, insomnia, anxiety, depression, headaches and cognitive problems," Mishra said.According to the press release, researchers also found a significant difference in the “right ventral diencephalon” of the brain stem, a region associated with the release of hormones, sensory and motor signals to the cerebral cortex, and the regulation of circadian rhythms."This study points to serious long-term complications that may be caused by the coronavirus, even months after recovery from the infection," Mishra said."The present findings are from the small temporal window. However, the longitudinal time points across a couple of years will elucidate if there exists any permanent change."
Coronavirus dashboard for Thanksgiving week 2022 - As we start Thanksgiving week, let’s take a look at the current state of COVID. The Alphabet Soup of variants (most of which are direct descendants of BA.5), primarily BQ.1&1.1, has largely displaced their parent, which is down to 24% of all cases: Typically new waves have peaked when the displaced variant is down to 10% or so of all cases, which should be the case with BA.5 in two or three weeks. This is noteworthy, because as we will see below, the Alphabet Soup variants have not yet caused any real wave at all. In the below graphs, I’m going to show the entire 2.5 year history of COVID as to each for comparison purposes. Here’s BIobot’s waste particles data (dark line) vs. confirmed cases (light line): Since the end of last year, many people have relied on home tests and not bothered with confirmation, so the “real” number of cases is roughly equal to the peaks of the first 3 waves of the pandemic. This makes sense since each new variant has been more immune-evasive than the previous variants. Regionally, we do see the likely beginning of a winter wave in the West, and also perhaps in the Midwest (but not the Northeast at all!): Despite this, hospitalizations are not elevated at all: And deaths (thick line), when compared with cases (thin line), are near their all-time lows: This has not gone unnoticed. Dr. Eric Topol, in his substack, calls the BQ.1.x variants the first displacing variants not to cause a new wave, pointing out that: “in New York State, which has the highest level of BQ.1.1 in the US, there continues to be no sign of hospital admissions increasing. If anything, that rate is decreasing.” He concludes: “It would be tempting to interpret the lack of impact of BQ.1.1, relative to its immune evasion properties, as we’re out of the woods. A population-level immunity wall has been built up over 3 years, with all the infections and vaccinations. Further, our T-cell immunity from these exposures, which isn’t assessed with these neutralization antibody assays, is helping us defend against variants. The optimistic viewpoint is that there’s little more that the Omicron family can throw at us which will be much worse than what we’ve already seen. That we’re done, going endemic, that the acute phase of the pandemic with big waves is over. “Not so fast. As Daniele Focosi reminded us this week, the SARS-CoV-2 mutation rate has increased by 30% in the past year. There still could be room within Omicron, and especially the XBB recombinants, to pose a significant threat. Moreover, there’s the dismal prospect of a whole new family of variants to emerge (e.g. Sigma) that are distinct from the mutation cascade we’ve seen from Omicron for over a year.” For now, I’m gong to go with the more optimistic scenario. As to XBB, that was responsible for a wave in Singapore, that quickly came and went all in the month of October: And no new lineage has managed to displace Omicron for the past full year. In the meantime, I would still mask up in all public indoor spaces, not just for COVID, but to avoid this year’s bad flu outbreak as well.
U.S. Covid Cases And Casualties Continue To Rise -After a recent lull, U.S. Covid cases and casualties are rising again.A 4 percent increase in Covid-related casualties has been reported in the United States in the last two weeks, according to the New York Times.New cases of coronavirus infection have increased by five percent in the same period.The United States on Thursday reported 34,783 new cases of coronavirus infection. With this, the total cases in the country reached 98,538,245, as per Johns Hopkins University's latest data.133 Covid deaths on Thursday took the total number of people who have lost their lives due to the disease to 1,079,052.U.S. hospitals reported a 2 percent increase in the number of Covid patients in the last two weeks. The number of I.C.U. admissions due to the worse stage of the viral disease increased by 8 percent.28,531 people are hospitalized due to Covid. 3,457 of these patients are admitted in intensive care units. The nation's test positivity rate has increased to 8.8 percent.A total of 97,929,295 people in the U.S. have recovered from the killer disease so far, Worldometers data shows. 1,875 additional deaths were reported globally on Thursday, taking the total number of people who have lost their lives due to the pandemic so far to 6,628,206.
New COVID variant becomes predominant strain in Mass. - Ahead of the holidays, a new COVID-19 strain has taken over in Massachusetts. The subvariant, known as BQ.1.1, is related to the omicron family and now accounts for 39 percent of COVID-19 cases in the state, making it the predominant variant in Massachusetts, The Boston Globe reported.Nationally, BQ.1.1 and its sibling BQ.1 accounted for just under 50 percent of COVID cases last week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. BA.5, the strain that dominated the country throughout the summer, now appears to be giving way to BQ.1.1 and BQ.1. The latest CDC data estimates that about 24 percent of cases nationwide are caused by BA.5. The booster shots distributed this fall were designed to combat BA.5. Both Pfizer and Moderna said recently that their booster shots do work to trigger immune responses against BQ.1.1 and BQ.1, CNBC reported. BQ.1.1 could pose a heightened risk to immunocompromised people and those that develop severe infections, according to theGlobe. The two predominant antibody medicines will likely not work as well against the new variants.“If you are unfortunate enough to wind up in the hospital severely ill, the arsenal that doctors will have to treat you will be more limited,” Dr. William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told the Globe.Although these variants could be more dangerous to some, a wider spike in infections does not appear to be imminent in Massachusetts. Recent data from theMassachusetts Department of Public Health shows the number of cases in the state remained relatively steady over the past month. Wastewater analysis from the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority, a powerful tool used to get an early glimpse at future COVID trends, does not show significantly rising levels of the virus as of last Thursday. “The huge majority of vaccinated people have no particular reason to be anxious about BQ.1.1,” Hanage told the Globe.
NEW: BQ.1 variant appears in Clark County as COVID-19 hospitalizations rise - COVID-19 cases are declining in Clark County after a big jump in early November but the virus is keeping a persistent presence. The 14-day moving average (per 100,000 population) is now at 159 cases each day in the county, and 219 for the whole state. It’s a 10.1% improvement for Clark County, and a 5.1% improvement statewide. While cases remain relatively low, hospitalizations are approaching levels in early August — just before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reduced Clark County’s “community level” to “low.” Currently, the only county in Nevada that is not at “low” is White Pine County, which has a “high” community level. And the virus continues to reinvent itself. Information from the Southern Nevada Health District shows that the dominant variant in Clark County’s cases is now COVID-19 BQ.1 (33.6% of cases), followed by COVID-19 BQ.1.1 (25.2% of cases). That variant has only emerged here over the past 30 days. Reports indicate BQ.1 is resistant to all available monoclonal antibody treatments for COVID-19. The percentage of cases attributed to BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are similar to national averages. Reports on variants detected in Clark County resumed this week after updates were not posted the previous two weeks. Deaths continue, with 22 deaths reported in Clark County in today’s weekly update. Statewide, 24 deaths were reported. Nevada’s total number of deaths from the pandemic now stands at 11,624, with 9,080 from Clark County.
CDC says it’s now tracking a new COVID variant known as XBB - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revealed Friday it is now tracking a new COVID-19 variant of concern around the U.S. known as XBB, which has grown to make up an estimated 3.1% of new infections nationwide. The strain’s prevalence has grown furthest so far in the Northeast, according to the agency’sweekly estimates. More than 5% of infections in the regions spanning New Jersey through Maine are linked to XBB, in this week’s “Nowcast” from the CDC. XBB is behind a vast swath of infections across some South Asian countries and has made up an increasing share of reported virus sequences fromaround the world and in arriving international travelers. Earlier this month, the CDC offered preliminary estimates suggesting XBB is potentially doubling in proportion about every 12 days. That could be faster than the current pace of the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants now dominant across the country. However, , the Biden administration’s top COVID officials and experts say they do not think XBB will pose a new threat on the scale of when the Omicron variant first emerged a year ago.
Omicron BQ Subvariants Become The Dominant COVID Variants In US - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that two omicron subvariants had overtaken the BA.5 variant as the dominant strain in the U.S.According to new data released by the CDC on Friday, the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants now account for more than half of the country’s cases. BA.5, which has dominated since early summer, now makes up only one-fifth of new infections.Not much is known about the new variants, but so far, they are presenting with similar illness to the other omicrons. Both Pfizer and Moderna said last week that their booster shots induce an immune response against BQ.1.1. The new variants could pose a risk for people that are immunocompromised due to disease or medications. They also appear to be resistant to antibody medications, such as bebtelovimab and Evusheld. Chief White House medical advisor, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said in a press briefing that health officials believe that enough immunity exists, thanks to vaccines, booster shots, and infection, that a COVID surge is unlikely.
New “nightmare” covid variant: arrives from Singapore - For at least two weeks the cases of covid-19 are constantly growing and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) confirms what experts have been warning for days: the appearance of a new wave of infections “in the coming weeks & rdquor; due to new virus subvariants, BQ.1 and BQ.2, identified in different places. “We are carefully monitoring new variants of the virus.” but “it is faster than we can be in the adoption of vaccines”, admitted the EMA head of vaccines on the 26th, Marco Cavaleriwhich confirms that the appearance of new mutations offers new escape routes to the virus.At least half a dozen versions of the virus are competing to become the next dominant strain in the United States, but they are all part of the same family tree. “They are all descendants of omicron & rdquor ;, explained Dr. Albert Ko, a physician and epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health, to the American newspaper ‘The New York Times’.Although each subvariant has slightly different mutations, none of them seem to be creating significant waves yet, as the delta and omicron variants did when they first appeared, Ko said. Here’s what experts know so far about the new subvariants and what their mutations can mean for recurrent infections, symptoms, case spikes, and treatment options. But there is one that is of great concern and that the EMA is also closely monitoring: the new XBB subvariant, which is spreading rapidly in Asia and has already been detected in some EU countries. It is a variant product of a combination between two subvariants They shared genetic material. the XBB It has been baptized as ‘gryphon’, in Spanish ‘griffin’, a mythological creature with the body of a lion and the wings and head of an eagle. It seems to have superseded the BA.2.75 Centauro, detected last summer, in escape capacity.Experts call this variant “nightmare” since it shows a increased resistance to antibodies than do other variants and subvariants detected to date, as remarked by Canadian evolutionary biologist T. Ryan Gregory, a professor at the University of Guelph in Ontario (Canada).The XBB variant is responsible for the increases in covid-19 cases in Singapore and in other countries of the South Asia, such as India.Along with it, they are circulating, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, for its acronym in English), the BA.5 subvariant, which promoted the wave of covid-19 in summer and which continues to cause somewhat less than half of the infections in the entire United States. But two other sub-variants are growing fast and are expected to overtake BA.5 very soon: BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. Until last day 28, the BQ.1 variant represented 14% of covid-19 infections in the United States, while BQ.1.1 -also known as “hound of hell”– represented 13.1%. Finally, the variant called BQ.4.6, has also gained some ground since August and until that day represented 9.6% of covid infections in the United States, according to information collected by ‘The New York Times’.
Caution grows in Japan over spread of new omicron variants Caution is growing in Japan over new omicron variants in the face of an eighth wave of coronavirus infections.The XBB and BQ.1 variants, both of which are spreading abroad after being first reported in September, are seen to have high immune evasion. It is not known, however, whether they are more severe than BA.5, the current mainstay lineage, experts say.According to the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, XBB, a hybrid of two subvariants of BA.2, is spreading chiefly in Singapore and BQ.1, a BA.5 subvariant, is surging in Europe and the United States. ‘
Mayan underworld: the new Covid subvariant surged in Yucatan -- Rodrígo García López, a researcher at UNAM’s Biotechnology Institute, has announced that the Genomic Surveillance Consortium, where they review the genomes of the virus and maintain constant surveillance of mutations, noticed an increase in cases in October in the southeastern part of Mexico.He also revealed that the BW1 sub-variant, also known as “Xibalba” or the “Mayan Underworld”, due to its origin in the state of Yucatan during the fifth wave, was identified when they were waiting for the arrival of BQ1.1, which is called “hellhound”.The UNAM researcher explained that this is a Mexican sub-variant of the coronavirus, whose origin is related to BA5C2, coming from the United States.Although he clarified that it is not the first variant to be born in the country, since B11519 was the first Mexican strain.Regarding whether the current vaccines protect against the “Mayan Underworld”, he said that it is advisable to apply the existing vaccines but to give a booster to those who have not been immunized during the last six months.“It has to do with the mutations it carries, since it carries several key mutations in common with BQ, let’s say a potential competitor, they are mutations that potentially make it easier for the antibodies that fight the virus to escape, that is, the specific immune response, although it is also important to mention that it is still omicron”, he detailed. He indicated that the symptoms are exactly the same as those of the “Hellhound” and “Nightmare” variants, which are fever, sore throat, cough and cut body, which complicates the possibility of distinguishing them.
Beijing reports 3 COVID-19 deaths as cases continue to surge across China - The latest surge of COVID-19 infections in China continues to deepen in major cities throughout the country, with the National Health Commission (NHC) reporting a near-record 27,095 total new cases on Sunday, bringing the seven-day average of daily new cases to 23,056. Also over the weekend, health authorities in Beijing reported three official deaths from COVID-19, including a 91-year-old woman and an 88-year-old man, the first deaths in China since May 26. So far, the deepening surge has been met with a limited response from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government, affirming the assessment of the World Socialist Web Site that the CCP has begun a shift away from the Zero-COVID elimination strategy, which had been in place since the start of the pandemic. It is entirely possible that the CCP will reinstate Zero-COVID as the crisis deepens, but at this point there has been no sign of reversal as infections are mounting. On November 11, the NHC released 20 changes to the “dynamic zero” policy, all of which curtail the measures needed to stop viral transmission of COVID-19. These include reductions in mass testing, contact tracing, quarantine and isolation protocols, and above all the limitation of citywide lockdowns which have proven to be the most effective measure at quickly suppressing transmission. The NHC is framing the 20 changes as intended to resolve “problems of excessive and one-size-fits-all approaches,” but it is now clear that they represent the beginning of a shift away from the Zero-COVID policy. The implications of this shift are increasingly coming into focus as the current surge progresses. China’s capital Beijing, home to 21.5 million people, is now experiencing its worst COVID-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic, with a record 962 cases detected on Sunday. Instead of implementing a mandatory citywide lockdown, local authorities have responded by requesting that residents voluntarily stay at home, without providing any financial assistance to workers that cannot afford to do so. While many residents are following this recommendation and some schools have voluntarily switched to remote learning, businesses throughout the city remain open. In nearby Shijiazhuang, a city of 11 million people, cases have steadily risen, with 641 reported on Sunday. In response, local authorities have refrained from issuing a lockdown and instead announced Sunday that mass testing will take place in six of the city’s eight districts over the next five days. They also encouraged residents to shop online and ordered some schools to switch to remote learning. Roughly one-third of all new infections in China are taking place in Guangdong province, which now has a seven-day average of 8,706 daily new cases, with most taking place in the provincial capital Guangzhou, home to nearly 19 million people. Instead of implementing a robust citywide lockdown, since November 5 local authorities have implemented partial lockdowns of different districts in the city. On Monday, a five-day lockdown began in Baiyun, the most populous district in Guangzhou, while dine-in services, night clubs and movie theaters in the city’s main business district were ordered to temporarily close. It bears reviewing the experience of last spring’s surge in Shanghai to recognize the shifts taking place across China at present. On March 28, 2022, the seven-day average of daily new cases in Shanghai stood at 3,662. After officials in Shanghai had stated repeatedly that they would not implement a citywide lockdown, national authorities finally intervened and demanded that they do so. Almost exactly two months later, the city finally emerged from the lockdown, with over 380,000 total infections and 337 deaths. The experience in Shanghai underscored the need to expand the Zero-COVID strategy in response to the highly infectious Omicron variant. Throughout the country, authorities should have been advised to implement citywide lockdowns more promptly, as soon as cases begin to surge, in order to quickly contain serious outbreaks. They should have ensured that every resident is provided with N95 or better masks, renovated infrastructure in all public spaces to limit airborne transmission, provided full funding to every city to maintain mass testing and other necessary public health measures. Instead, five months later, the opposite path is being taken. The refusal to implement a citywide lockdown in Guangzhou is particularly revealing. At present, the seven-day average of daily new cases in Guangzhou is 138 percent higher than this figure was in Shanghai on March 28, when a lockdown was finally implemented.
China tallies three consecutive days of record COVID-19 infections - On Thursday, Friday and Saturday, China’s National Health Commission (NHC) reported three consecutive record numbers of COVID-19 infections, 32,943, 31,656, and 35,183, respectively. The outbreak is the most geographically widespread to date, with five provinces—Guangdong, Chongqing, Beijing, Sichuan and Hebei—reporting over 1,000 daily new cases on Friday and Saturday, and eight other provinces reporting over 500 new cases.Guangdong province in the Southeast is at the epicenter of the current outbreak, with 8,476 COVID cases reported Friday, followed by Chongqing with 6,500, Hebei with 3,375, Beijing with 1,860, and Sichuan with 1,310.Rather than implementing full-scale lockdowns and mass testing of the population to bring the rapid, multi-city rise in cases under control, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is waffling and demonstrably unsure of how to proceed as they employ halfhearted mitigation measures by way of reaction rather than a more deeply considered public health approach.For instance, the five-day lockdown in Guangzhou’s most populous district of Baiyun will do little to stem the tide of infections. It will promote locals’ distrust and suspicion of public health authorities and exacerbate future efforts to implement infection controls. Implementing the Zero-COVID measures necessary to save lives and well-being requires a whole-of-society approach based on clear communication and the deployment of resources to protect the population.In Chongqing, resources are already being overwhelmed, with the region’s 41,000 quarantine beds already filled with patients. The Deputy Director of the Chongqing Health Commission told reporters that the municipality is hurrying to construct new facilities that can hold close to 50,000 more people, with over 5,000 construction workers now laboring around the clock to complete the centers in five days.In China’s capital city of Beijing, health authorities have shifted to haphazardly introducing modified lockdown measures, causing disarray and panic across the sprawling urban center of more than 22 million people. Health authorities are asking residents to voluntarily stay in their apartment compounds for a few days, while the number of businesses being forced to close their activities is growing.Panic buying has once again left many supermarket shelves empty as families try to stock their pantries, unsure if the measures being implemented will take on a protracted character. Improvised quarantine centers and field hospitals are now under construction, while many schools have shifted to online classes.The current surge in cases across China proves that attempting to compromise with the Zero-COVID public health stance can only lead to disastrous results.
COVID Strain With 'Horrific' Mutations Spreads in South Africa - Health authorities are rushing to investigate a new variant of COVID-19 that originated in Botswana, has been spreading in South African, and appears to have a “horrific” number of mutations. It’s not yet clear how much of a threat the strain—which likely emerged from someone infected with both HIV and COVID—poses, but scientists are concerned it could trigger a fourth wave in South Africa, where only a third of adults are vaccinated. “Here is a mutation variant of serious concern,” Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a briefing on Thursday, according to Bloomberg News. “We were hopeful that we might have a longer break in between waves—possibly that it would hold off to late December or even next year January.”
Africa CDC Plans Talks on New Covid Variant in South Africa - African health authorities plan to hold talks with their South African counterparts next week about a new coronavirus variant that has been found in the country. Data on the new variant is currently being analyzed and more information will be released after the meeting, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention Director John Nkengasong said in a virtual briefing on Thursday. A new Covid-19 variant with a large number of mutations has emerged, with cases reported in Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong, the Independent reported earlier. The B.1.1529, or so-called Botswana variant, is an offshoot of another variant called B.1.1., the London-based newspaper said. Nkengasong declined to comment when asked whether the Botswana variant was the one officials plan to discuss.
Sneaky mutations among Queenstown's Covid-19 'variant soup' -- It’s been dubbed a “variant soup” – newer strains of Covid-19 are finding their way into the country, and landing in Queenstown. Ongoing wastewater testing is helping to keep track of Covid-19 in the community and the latest results from Queenstown reveal three newer variants are gaining ground locally. They’re sub-variants of Omicron and generally thought to be more transmissible than their predecessors because they've got a whole bunch of mutations that may allow them to sneak past immune defences. There's BQ.1.1, which testing of sewage samples shows makes up 13 percent of Covid-19 infection in Queenstown. This variant has quickly gained traction in both Europe and the United States, looks set to become the world's alpha variant. It's neck and neck with BA.2.75, which has been in town a few months longer, and also accounts for 13 percent of cases locally. The variant was first detected in India in May and was nicknamed Centaurus. And, then, there’s XBB, a variant which initially took hold in Asia and was dubbed the "nightmare variant" in Singapore. It accounts for six percent. The most dominant Omicron strain locally is still BA.4/BA.5, at 68 percent, but its prevalence is trending downwards, as it is around the country. ESR's wastewater variant analysis week ending November 13, 2022. Every known variant in Aotearoa at this point in time has been detected in Queenstown's latest sewage samples, while other test spots show just one, two or three of the known variants. So, what can we expect to see over the summer? The short answer is we don't know. But there is some good news. In his latest Covid-19 update, deputy director-general of health Andrew Old has said there’s no evidence at this stage to suggest the new circulating variants lead to a more severe disease. But some – and he names BQ.1.1 and XBB here – have shown increased “growth advantage” compared to other variants. They’re “outcompeting” previously dominate variants overseas and, now, “at home”, he says. Overseas, the impact of these variants has varied between countries, and he points out that in Europe an increase in BQ.1.1 infections has not lead to an increase in hospitalisation rates. Modelling to show what impact this new “variant soup” may have in New Zealand continues, but there’s a lack of “real-world” data to go by, he says. “The takeaway is, really, that the outlook for summer, with more people travelling and with the unpredictable mix of variants circulating, at this point remains uncertain. “As always, we will be watching these numbers closely and continue to plan for a possible continued increase in cases and hospitalisations through to the end of the year.”
Long COVID: How clusters of symptoms have emerged and changed over the pandemic - \Since the first COVID "long haulers" were reported in 2020, millions of people have experienced long COVID.While long COVID has no strict definition, it's generally used to describe an illness following a SARS-CoV-2 infection with symptoms that last at least two to three months.It can manifest as a whole suite of symptoms ranging from body aches and pains to brain fog, and these can substantially vary between people, says Lou Irving, respiratory physician and head of the Royal Melbourne Hospital's post-COVID clinic."We now have … over 600 cases and they really help us understand that there's a wide range of presentations."But under that broad "long COVID" umbrella, clusters of symptoms have emerged, and as the pandemic's worn on, those symptoms have shifted.Senior respiratory physiotherapist Janet Bondarenko has been working in Melbourne's Alfred Hospital post-COVID clinic since its doors opened two years ago.Early on, most people referred to the post-COVID clinic had been severely sick and many hospitalised."We saw a lot of breathlessness in people, and they could only manage walking a few metres at a time," Ms Bondarenko says."Then we started to see memory and concentration issues."And while she still sees these symptoms in patients now, she also sees more people with heart-related symptoms."If they're going from sitting to standing, their heart rate will jump and they'll get palpitations, chest pains, things like that," Ms Bondarenko says.This is an example of what's known as "autonomic dysfunction", where a part of our nervous system that controls things like blood pressure doesn't work properly.If a person's blood pressure drops, their heart has to work harder and pump faster to compensate and keep blood moving around the body.This, in turn, produces symptoms such as dizziness and extreme fatigue."What's interesting is people now often present with breathlessness, but it's not breathlessness caused by the respiratory disorder," Ms Bondarenko says."It's breathlessness from fatigue and from this autonomic dysfunction."Jason Kovacic, a cardiologist at the Victor Chang Cardiac Research Institute, says it's still the case that a very sick person is more likely to develop long COVID, but now people with an extremely mild case can end up in a bad way."I have a couple of notable patients who just can't nail down when they had COVID, but they came to the clinic or to the ER with a full hand of long COVID symptoms," Professor Kovacic says."They're dizzy, lightheaded, fatigued, and short of breath, and they get to see me because they've got a resting heart rate of 120 and a blood pressure of 90 over 60."First, Professor Kovacic runs tests to rule out other causes of low blood pressure and fast heart rate, such as myocarditis."But this group of people tend to have a normal heart that's beating fast with low blood pressure and palpitations and, understandably, a lot of anxiety as well."Just as different variants (and subvariants) of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have wreaked various levels of havoc on our body, it appears they impart different lingering after-effects too."Different strains of the virus are interacting with immune systems differently and triggering different events," Professor Kovacic says."The likelihood of getting long COVID was probably double with Delta than what it is with Omicron."I think that really speaks to this interaction of what the specific strain of the virus is doing, and how that interacts with the immune system of each person." Exactly why long COVID develops in some people and not others is still a mystery, but our genetics likely plays a role, as does our history of previous conditions. Some studies suggest COVID-19 infection can reactivate the Epstein-Barr virus, which causes glandular fever and is linked to chronic fatigue syndrome. "They're not the same conditions, but there are parallels between chronic fatigue and long COVID, and some of the immune dysfunction that's related to glandular fever is very similar to what happens with long COVID," Professor Kovacic says. Professor Irving suspects researchers will eventually discover subtypes of sorts within the broader "long COVID" cohort. "I think we'll find there are groups where the virus can activate autoimmune responses, in some people it can activate autonomic responses, and in others it can bring out mental health issues."But recovering from long COVID takes time, and for most, that's between six and 12 months, Ms Bondarenko says. "Often the concentration and brain fog is quite highly linked with fatigue, so once the fatigue starts to get better, all those other symptoms tend to resolve as well.
South Carolina: Flu cases on the rise — Health officials in South Carolina say the state has experienced more than 100 times more flu cases and nearly 50 times more hospitalizations than this time last year.The Department of Health and Environmental Control in South Carolina says this flu season is one of the most active ones in recent years nationally and in the Palmetto State.DHEC’s latest weekly Flu Watch report shows 23,343 lab-confirmed cases, 1,003 hospitalizations, and 11 deaths this season. At this time last flu season, there were only 219 lab-confirmed cases, 21 hospitalizations and one death.Data on the latest flu watch report shows that since the 2016-2017 flu season, which is as far back as the report goes, the state has not seen this amount of flu cases this early. To see the image below in a larger form, click here.
Ohio flu season 2022: Ohio flu levels rising ahead of Thanksgiving weekend– As families and friends prepare to gather at the dinner table on Thanksgiving, the CDC says more than 2,100 Americans have already died from the flu within the past month. Ohio went from low levels of influenza to high levels in just the past three weeks. A baby died from the flu in Cleveland just last week, according to Dr. Shelly Senders, President & CEO of Senders Pediatrics. “People don’t trust the flu vaccines are going to protect them against the flu,” Dr. Senders said. Regaining trust is one of the goals of a groundbreaking clinical trial now underway at Senders Pediatrics in South Euclid. MetroHealth CEO says his firing was retaliatory; board chair responds Dr. Senders says new mRNA technology in creating the omicron booster shot is now being used to create a more targeted influenza vaccine. “Currently, we choose the flu vaccine based on the four-strains that are circulating in February in South America,” Dr. Senders said. Dr. Senders says, based on that information, the vaccine had anywhere between a 35% to 70% efficacy rate. The trial will determine if the vaccine can now be “tweaked” based on strains surfacing here in the U.S. “We can give people flu shots in September, and if we see that something changes, that there is a variant that is affecting us, then we can make a new one in November and give people a booster,” Dr. Senders said. It’s ultimately preventing rapid illness, school absenteeism, hospitalizations and even death. “Up to 40,000 people die every year from influenza and there’s no reason for that to happen,” Dr. Senders said.
Pinal County health officials confirm first child death of the flu this season -- Pinal County health officials confirmed on Wednesday that a child died from the flu, making it the first pediatric death in the state this flu season. Officials say the flu and RSV contributed to the child’s death. This year’s flu season started earlier, and officials are urging people to get their flu shot to help slow the spread.“This tragic situation, unfortunately, reminds us that flu can cause serious illness and death,” said Dr. Tascha Spears, Health Director for the Pinal County Public Health Services District. “Our deepest sympathy goes out to this child’s family.”Since the start of the flu season, 172 cases have been reported in Pinal County and 4,552 in the state. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says everyone six months or older should get the flu vaccine as soon as possible because it takes two weeks to build immunity. CDC officials also recommend avoiding touching your mouth and nose, washing your hands, covering your mouth if you cough, and staying home when you’re sick. Symptoms of the flu include fever, cough, sore throat, runny/stuffy nose, body aches, headaches and fatigue. If you want to schedule a flu shot, call Pinal County Public Health at 1-866-960-0633 or go to vaccines.gov for the nearest vaccine location.
WA confirms first pediatric flu death of season as ERs enter ‘crisis mode’ | The Seattle Times - Washington state has confirmed its first pediatric flu death of the 2022-23 influenza season, pushing public health leaders to more urgently sound the alarm on the region’s steep rise of respiratory infections this fall. A King County child in elementary school died last week from complications of the flu, the county’s first pediatric flu death in more than two years, according to a Wednesday statement from Public Health – Seattle & King County. To date, at least four adults in the state have died from influenza this season. The pediatric death is the latest reminder of the region’s startling rise in respiratory infections this fall, which are at the highest levels the county has seen since at least 2018, if not longer, said Dr. Eric Chow, who leads King County’s communicable disease and epidemiology division. Cases of RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, have been increasing since September, but flu infections started skyrocketing in King County in the past month. The number of cases has doubled each week since mid-October. As of early November, about 8.6% of tests from hospitals and laboratories in the county had returned positive for the flu, compared to less than 1% in mid-October. About 30% of tests are coming back positive for RSV, according to county data. The surge has hit younger children and teenagers especially hard, crowding Seattle Children’s and other pediatric hospitals and leading to long ER wait times in the region.In Washington, most flu infections have been found in those between 5 and 24 years old, with infants and toddlers under 4 representing the second largest group.Children’s ER is at nearly 100% capacity almost 24 hours a day and at almost 300% capacity most evenings. At Odessa Brown Children’s Clinic, a Seattle Children’s community clinic, providers are receiving a record number of calls from worried families, said Dr. Shaquita Bell, the clinic’s senior medical director.
Shortage of pediatric ICU beds amid early flu season, RSV cases – Two-month-old Kehlani Perez had been gasping for air and vomiting when her mother, Natalie Torres, brought her to University Hospital on Friday afternoon.The culprit turned out to be rhinovirus, a type of respiratory infection. Although Torres knew by about 3 p.m. that Kehlani would need to be admitted, it took another 10 hours of waiting before they had a pediatric intensive care unit bed for her.“We had to wait for a discharge in people because there wasn’t enough rooms,” Torres said.The backup they faced isn’t unique. A Texas Department of State Health Services dashboard, updated Monday afternoon, shows just 42 staffed pediatric ICU beds available across the state.In San Antonio’s region, which covers nearly 2.9 million people and stretches to the border, there were only nine available.University Health Chief Medical Officer Dr. Bryan Alsip said the flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are playing a significant role in their bed shortage. Lingering effects of COVID-19 may play a role, he said, though local statistics on Monday showed only 14 COVID-positive patients in Bexar County hospitals, which includes adults.“I mean, the COVID numbers that we’ve been seeing in the past couple of weeks are probably, at least in the inpatient environment, some of the lowest we’ve seen in the past three years, which is great. And we’re excited about that and happy about that,” Alsip said. “But it seems that’s simply opened the door for some of these other respiratory pathogens that are now affecting a lot of people.”Flu and RSV can be dangerous for children when they have a hard time breathing.“Particularly young infants start breathing rapidly because they’re not oxygenating well. Sometimes they start to turn blue,” Alsip said.San Antonio Metropolitan Health District data shows the flu is already “widespread,” and health care visits for flu-like illness, which includes RSV and rhinovirus, are trending upward.“This is by far the earliest season on record for us,” said Dr. Anita Kurian, Metro Health deputy director.Kurian said flu season normally ramps up by the first week of December and peaks somewhere in mid-January to mid-February. Metro Health doesn’t know exactly what’s driving the early flu season, but Kurian notes that other respiratory illnesses were “greatly impacted by COVID-19.”“So it is fair to believe that there is less immunity in that population,” Kurian said.Metro Health’s data on flu-like illness visits show the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 flu seasons were light and steady -- a far cry from what they’re seeing now.Part of the reason may be because of the numerous precautions people took during the pandemic against COVID-19. Masking, social distancing, and hand-washing are effective at stopping the spread of other viruses, too.But now, most people have returned to their normal, pre-pandemic lives.“I believe there is ample opportunity for these respiratory viruses, including influenza, to spread very easily as they have done historically here in our community,” Kurian said.
The strain on pediatric hospitals from a triple epidemic of RSV, COVID and the flu continues unabated -- With the triple threat of RSV, influenza, and COVID having materialized much earlier than previously predicted (usually arriving in December or January after the holidays), instead of spending Thanksgiving weekend at home with extended families many children will be huddled with their parents in emergency rooms across the United States seeking medical attention for their respiratory ailments.The triple threat of infections is devastating a health care system that is already in free fall, as described by a letter sent to the White House by organizations of doctors, nurses and health care providers earlier this month, urging the president to address the crisis faced by emergency departments (EDs). Wait times for admissions or transfers are extending far beyond the four-hour limits recommended by health authorities, risking the lives of the patients both in the EDs and hospital wards.Most of the Atlantic seaboard, Southeast, Midwest, and Southwest states are registering high levels of influenza-like illnesses (ILI). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported that influenza activity in the US is higher than it has been in more than a decade, exceeding their epidemic thresholds. As of November 18, more than 4.4 million flu cases had been registered. There have been 38,000 hospitalizations and over 2,100 deaths across the country.With approximately an average of 8 people per 100,000 population being placed in hospitals, children under the age of five are only behind adults 65 and older at 13.6 per 100,000, nearly twice the national average. Many in the corporate press had claimed these were a byproduct of a so-called “immunity-debt” that left many children vulnerable because they had gone two years with essentially no exposure to these respiratory pathogens. Such pseudo-scientific explanations facilitate the current back-to-school policies heavily promoted by the Democratic Party. The claim is that such infections have clinical benefits to children, meaning that the limited measures against COVID that saved millions of lives were somehow harmful to children. In actuality, COVID has killed far more children than flu and RSV, despite very limited mitigation measures.Immunology professor at the University of Surrey Deborah Dunn-Walters told the Financial Times, “Immunity debt as an individual concept is not recognized in immunology. The immune system is not viewed as a muscle that has to be used all the time to be kept in shape and, if anything, the opposite is the case.”Indeed! Pediatric hospitals have been strained for several weeks from an onrush of young infants infected by RSV and other respiratory illnesses. For newborns in particular, RSV is quite dangerous, due to their narrower upper respiratory tracts and fragile condition. In fact, RSV-related hospitalization rates for babies under six months has reached 145 per 100,000 and those six to 12 months of age at 63 per 100,000.
Measles is ‘imminent threat’ globally, WHO and CDC warn - Measles, the preventable but highly infectious disease, could be on the verge of a comeback after a lull in the immediate months following the emergence of the coronavirus, the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.Calling measles an “imminent threat in every region of the world,” the two public health bodies said in a report that almost 40 million children missed their vaccine doses last year. They said 25 million children did not receive their first dose, while an additional 14.7 million children missed their second shot, marking a record high in missed vaccinations.The number of measles infections has declined over the past two decades, though it remains a mortal threat, particularly for unvaccinated young children in the developing world. But there were an estimated 9 million cases and 128,000 deaths globally last year, up from 7.5 million cases and 60,700 in 2020. That increase came amid poorer disease surveillance and vaccine campaigns that were delayed by the pandemic, the WHO and CDC said.Vaccination can also confer benefits to one’s community, a concept known as herd immunity. About 95 percent of a population needs to be vaccinated with two doses for herd immunity to occur, but only around 81 percent of children globally have received their first dose, and 71 percent their second, the two bodies said.Measles, which starts with cold-like symptoms, undermines the immune system, making those infected more susceptible to other diseases. Seizures and blindness are possible in some instances, according to Britain’s National Health Service.The WHO has previously warned that the dip in measles infections early in the pandemic was the “calm before the storm.”“Routine immunization must be protected and strengthened” despite the coronavirus, said Kate O’Brien, WHO’s director of immunization, vaccines and biologicals, last year. Otherwise, “we risk trading one deadly disease for another.”
Monkeypox Mutations Cause Virus To Spread Rapidly, Evade Drugs And Vaccines – Monkeypox has infected more than 77,000 people in more than 100 countries worldwide, and — similar to COVID-19 — mutations have enabled the virus to grow stronger and smarter, evading antiviral drugs and vaccines in its mission to infect more people.Now, a team of researchers at the University of Missouri have identified the specific mutations in the monkeypox virus that contribute to its continued infectiousness. The findings could lead to several outcomes: modified versions of existing drugs used to treat people suffering from monkeypox or the development of new drugs that account for the current mutations to increase their effectiveness at reducing symptoms and the spread of the virus.Kamlendra Singh, a professor in the MU College of Veterinary Medicine and Christopher S. Bond Life Sciences Center principal investigator, collaborated with Shrikesh Sachdev, Shree Lekha Kandasamy and Hickman High School student Saathvik Kannan, to analyze the DNA sequences of more 200 strains of monkeypox virus spanning multiple decades, from 1965, when the virus first started spreading, to outbreaks in the early 2000s and again in 2022. “By doing a temporal analysis, we were able to see how the virus has evolved over time, and a key finding was the virus is now accumulating mutations specifically where drugs and antibodies from vaccines are supposed to bind,” Sachdev said. “So, the virus is getting smarter, it is able to avoid being targeted by drugs or antibodies from our body’s immune response and continue to spread to more people.”“Mutations in the monkeypox virus replication complex: Potential contributing factors to the 2022 outbreak” was recently published in Journal of Autoimmunity.
Lebanon faces first cholera outbreak in decades -Lebanese and international officials have reported that the death toll from the country’s cholera outbreak—its first in three decades—has reached 18. There have been over 1,400 confirmed cases since the first was recorded on October 5. Cholera, a disease that is relatively simple to treat with oral or intravenous hydration and antibiotics, has long been associated with the world’s poorest countries where access to clean water and basic sanitation is limited. That an outbreak is taking place in 2022 in Lebanon, once a relatively affluent country, is due to the desperate poverty created by decades of imperialist wars in the Middle East, Washington’s proxy war for regime change in neighbouring Syria, the “let it rip” pandemic policies of the world’s capitalist governments, the plundering of the country’s resources by Lebanon’s corrupt financial elite, the 2020 Port of Beirut blast, the economic impact of the US/NATO war on Russia in Ukraine, and profiteering by the world’s pharmaceutical industry. The result has been a massive 60 percent reduction in Lebanon’s economy, with GDP falling from about $55 billion in 2018 to an estimated $20.5 billion in 2021, the kind of contraction usually associated with wars, according to the World Bank. Cholera, a water-borne intestinal disease, spreads by the ingestion of water or food that has been contaminated by the waste of infected people. It causes uncontrollable diarrhea and vomiting that can lead to death within hours from dehydration if untreated. As 75 percent of those who contract cholera exhibit no symptoms, the real number of those infected in Lebanon could well be more than 5,000. The disease was first identified in Lebanon’s rural areas, in the northern districts bordering Syria. Its presence was “probably due to population movements,” according to the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) technical team in Lebanon, Alissar Rady. It has spread rapidly throughout all eight governorates and 18 out of 26 districts. Since late August more than 35,000 suspected cases of cholera and 92 deaths have been reported across Syria, where the WHO believes the outbreak probably started. Poverty levels have soared since the start of the war in 2011 that has devastated the country’s physical, economic and agricultural infrastructure. Syria’s cholera outbreak comes during the country’s worst drought in decades. Raw sewage is being pumped into the Euphrates River on which hundreds of thousands of people depend.
Ebola fears see Uganda close schools early for Christmas - BBC News - It might seem like Christmas is coming early for students in Uganda as millions of them head home early for the school holidays on Friday. Yet the decision to close schools nationwide two weeks before the end of term has been taken to curb the spread of Ebola, as the country continues to battle one of its worst outbreaks. It is also at odds with the government's official stance that everything is under control. In the past two months 55 people have died with the virus - and there were 22 probable Ebola deaths before the outbreak was officially declared on 20 September. Some experts have expressed reservations about the school shutdowns, arguing that keeping pupils contained for another two weeks would be a better way to halt the spread of the deadly disease, given the incubation period can last from two days to three weeks. Ebola is a viral infection that is spread through the bodily fluids of a patient. Many of the children who attend boarding schools will be travelling long distances across the country. "They are going to be packed in buses, minibuses and private cars providing maximum opportunity for people to mix in very close contact," public health expert Dr Olive Kobusingye, a senior research fellow at Makerere University School and the University of South Africa, told the BBC. "It's the last thing Uganda needs now." But it is not a decision taken lightly - given that at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, Uganda imposed the longest school closure globally, lasting 22 months. Education Minister Janet Museveni, who is also the wife of Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, made the announcement earlier this month following 23 cases across five schools in Kampala - which led to the death of eight students. The infections in the capital were linked to a man who had travelled to there from the western Mubende district, the epicentre of the outbreak. The fear is schools could now act as a reservoir - something authorities want to avoid in urban areas. Schools had already put in place strict anti-Ebola measures - many already used for Covid - including temperature screening, regular handwashing and disinfecting surfaces. Visits by parents and guardians were then banned as the last term of the year drew to a close and final-year students prepared for exams.
Uganda Held a Marathon for 25,000 People During an Ebola Outbreak - The Ugandan health ministry has rejected claims that a packed marathon event held over the weekend will worsen the spread of Ebola.Tagged the “Run for Babies,” Sunday’s marathon in Kampala, which attracted an estimated 25,000 runners, was held to support maternity facilities across the country. But it comes as two central districts, Mubende and Kasanda, are currently under lockdown to curb the spread, while many schools have closed and other sporting events have been postponed.Photos of the marathon on social media show huge, tightly packed crowds in the capital, a city that has recorded 17 Ebola cases and two deaths in recent weeks. Top government officials, including Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja and Diana Atwine, Permanent Secretary of the Uganda Ministry of Health, were at the race, clearly in close contact with others, prompting criticism.“The citizens are asking – is there an outbreak of Ebola in Uganda, or is it a stunt being used to siphon public funds and money from donors?” prominent opposition politician and musician Bobi Wine tweeted after the event. “It is a shame that they have made a joke of everything, including public health!”Officials though are claiming there’s no cause for panic. “With the screening measures in place at the MTN Kampala Marathon, no participant displayed any symptoms,” a statement from the health ministry read on Monday, adding that symptomatic Ebola patients who are known to spread the disease “can barely engage in activities like running and aerobics.”But those at Sunday’s marathon say there were zero screening measures in place, except for regular metal detectors that would not be useful in detecting the Ebola virus. “All they said is a lie,” Godwin Toko, who ran in the marathon, told VICE World News. “There was nothing health related to the screening. In fact, there were no health personnel at hand…save for the Red Cross that was at hand to help with emergencies.”
STDs Surge Among English Men Over 65 Years Old --There was a 20 percent jump in the number of over 65-year-olds being diagnosed with common sexually transmitted diseases in England between 2017 and 2019, according to a report released by the Local Government Association (LGA) on Tuesday, with figures rising from 2,280 to 2,748. As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, using data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), while both sexes saw increases over the three years, figures are substantially higher for men. Where 214 men were diagnosed with gonorrhea in 2017, it rose to 360 in 2019. Similarly, where 324 men were diagnosed with chlamydia in 2017, that soared to 454 two years later. While the over 65-year-olds have caught headlines for seeing the largest percentage increase in gonorrhea (68 percent increase) and chlamydia (40 percent increase), the absolute numbers in both cases pale in comparison to those of younger age brackets. For instance, 46,676 women aged 20-24 years old were diagnosed with chlamydia in 2017, up to 50,203 in 2019, while the biggest group for gonorrhea was men aged 25-34 years old, rising from 13,409 cases in 2017 to 20,958 cases in 2019. Experts are partly attributing such STD increases to changing sexual behaviours, fueled by the rise in the popularity of dating apps. They also cite an uptick of ‘chemsex’ in the UK, stating that among a minority of men who have sex with men, the practice may facilitate risk behaviours. The term chemsex refers to sexual encounters that include the use of recreational drugs such as GHB/GBL, mephedrone and crystallized methamphetamine. According to the LGA, “where drug use takes place in a sexual context the risk of transmission of HIV, hepatitis B and C and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) increases.” This has led directly to increased attendances at sexual health clinics, especially in cities. The LGA report that just over four million sexual health consultations took place in 2021, which is a 36 percent increase from 2013. While the rise is being hailed as a welcome sign of increased awareness around sexual health and reduced stigma, experts say it is also placing additional strain on an already overburdened NHS. The LGA is now calling for financial support to sexual health services, warning that without it there could be a future wave of unwanted pregnancies and STI rates could continue to climb.
Sperm Count Among Men Has Dropped 60 Percent Globally Over Past 45 Years- Study --Sperm counts worldwide have halved over the past 45 years, according to a study published on Nov. 15 in the journal Human Reproduction Update.The study was conducted by an international team of researchers led by professor Hagai Levine of Hebrew University of Jerusalem’s Hadassah Braun School of Public Health.They aimed to examine trends in sperm count among men from all continents and analyzed 223 studies based on sperm samples taken from over 57,000 men across 53 countries including the United States, Europe, and Australia between 1973 to 2018.Previously, a 2017 study conducted by the same team of researchers reviewed sperm count data in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. The new analysis updates that review to include data from Central and South America, Asia, and Africa for the first time.Researchers in the latest study found an “appreciable decline” in sperm count during that time period.Specifically, researchers found that men in South America, Asia, and Africa shared a similar decline in total sperm counts and concentration as was previously observed in their study concentrated across Europe, North America, and Australia.Overall, results showed the mean sperm count fell by 51.6 percent between 1973 and 2018 across men from all continents, dropping on average by 1.2 percent per year from an estimated 101.2 million per milliliter to 49 million per milliliter from 1973 through 2018.Total sperm counts fell by 62.3 percent during the same period.Men are considered to have a low sperm count if they have less than 15 million sperm per milliliter or less than 39 million sperm total per ejaculate, according to the Mayo Clinic.Additionally, they found that data from the year 2000 showed a decline in sperm concentrations of more than 2.6 percent per year, doubling compared to the previous decline of 1.16 percent annually from 1972.Researchers said the “substantial and persistent decline is now recognized as a significant public health concern” and that further research on the causes of the decline is urgently needed to prevent further disruption of male reproductive health.“We hope that the new evidence provided here will receive attention not only from clinicians and scientists but also from decision-makers and the general public,” the researchers wrote.Men who suffered from infertility were excluded from the study. Researchers did note limitations to their study, however, including how the data was collected and reported as standards and methods for counting sperm have changed markedly over time. That makes it harder to compare the latest sperm counts to historical data. Additionally, researchers noted that complete elimination of all selection/recruitment bias was impossible because they were not able to collect semen samples at random.
Mapping Lyme disease across western North America - Tick bites transmit Lyme disease. But even knowing where these ticks live doesn't necessarily mean you can predict the disease in humans. It's only one part of a broader picture which includes human behavior and the habits of the parasite's carriers. Researchers at UC Santa Barbara have discovered that the ecology of the small mammals upon which ticks feed can explain rates of human Lyme disease, at least in California. As a result, scientists and health officials may be able to predict future disease risk by studying the response of these animals, and their tick parasites, to changing climate and land use. The findings appear in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Lyme disease is primarily caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi by way of tick bites. However, the western blacklegged tick isn't born with the bacterium. It can only contract the pathogen by feeding on an infected host, which serves as a reservoir for the microbe. The ecology of the tick's hosts should affect the distribution of the disease in humans, but the connection isn't always straightforward. "It's challenging to link the ecology to the epidemiology—or where people get sick—because humans change their behavior based on risk," said . Where people go, how they interact with the landscape, and whether they take precautions against tick bites all influence where people contract Lyme disease.Small mammals are most likely to acquire and then transmit infection to an uninfected tick, MacDonald explained. Large mammals don't build up significant pathogen levels, and reptiles' immune systems may even kill the bacteria. Meanwhile, the role of birds is less understood, but scientists believe they aren't significant contributors to the amount of Lyme disease in tickpopulations in North America.When the dust settled, the algorithm showed a clear link between infected ticks and one of their frequent hosts. "The most important predictor, by far, of B. burgdorferi in ticks is the ecology of dusky-footed woodrats," MacDonald said. "This species acquires infection from ticks easily, and it transmits infection to new ticks easily as well." Western gray squirrels also served as a reservoir for the bacterium, but not to the same extent as the woodrat.
US high-path avian flu poultry losses reach 2015 record - Over the past few days, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported more highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in five states, which put the nation's poultry losses for the year at 50.5 million, which ties the record set in the outbreaks of 2015.One of the latest outbreaks involved a turkey farm housing 29,200 birds in South Dakota's Beadle County. In Utah, the virus struck a petting zoo and exhibition farm in Utah County that houses 270 birds. Elsewhere, outbreaks affected backyard birds in Missouri, Maine, South Dakota, and North Carolina.The outbreaks involve a Eurasian H5N1 strain that first cropped up in US poultry in February, eventually spreading to 46 states so far.The virus has fueled outbreaks in multiple world regions. The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) in its latest monthly situation report, which covers avian flu outbreaks Oct 12 through Nov 10, reported 140 outbreaks in poultry and 110 outbreaks in wild birds. Most were in Europe and the Americas, but some were reported from Africa and Asia. The predominant subtype was H5N1.WOAH noted the first H5N1 detection in Colombia, which marked the first appearance of high path avian flu in South America in about two decades. The group warned that outbreak activity is expected to rise in the coming months, and it urged countries to maintain their surveillance efforts and for producers to beef up their biosecurity practices.
A Soil Fungus That Causes Lung Infections Is Spreading Across the U.S. An illness-causing fungus known as histoplasma is in the soil of nearly all U.S. states, a new study suggests. The researchers behind the work say doctors may be relying on outdated risk maps and therefore missing diagnoses of the infections, which can sometimes be deadly.The CDC claims that histoplasma, or histo, is found in the soil of central and eastern U.S. states, primarily in Ohio and the Mississippi River valleys. But that assumption is based on research from the 1950s and 1960s, says the team behind a new paper published in Clinical Infectious Diseases. In reality, they say, histo is found all across the country. When a person breathes in spores of the fungus, they can contract an infection called histoplasmosis.“Every few weeks I get a call from a doctor in the Boston area – a different doctor every time – about a case they can’t solve,” said study author Andrej Spec, an associate professor of medicine at Washington University in St. Louis, in a press release. “They always start by saying, ‘We don’t have histo here, but it really kind of looks like histo.’ I say, ‘You guys call me all the time about this. You do have histo.’”The research team, led by Patrick B. Mazi, a clinical fellow in infectious diseases at Washington University in St. Louis, analyzed more than 45 million Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries extending from 2007 through 2016. They looked at diagnoses across the country of three fungal diseases: histoplasmosis, coccidioidomycosis, and blastomycosis. Histo, the most common, was causing clinically relevant rates of illness in at least one county in 48 of 50 states, as well as Washington, D.C. The other two infections were each found in more than half of states.“Fungal infections are much more common than people realize, and they’re spreading,” Spec said in the release. “The scientific community has underinvested in studying and developing treatments for fungal infections. I think that’s beginning to change, but slowly.” Climate change may be driving this spread as warming temperatures make more habitats suitable for the fungi.
Earth may be enduring its seventh mass extinction, not sixth - Scientists have long argued that Earth is currently in the midst of the sixth mass extinction event, losing thousands of plant and animal species each year. However, according to a new study led by the University of California, Riverside (UCR) and Virginia Tech, we might in fact be facing the seventh rather than the sixth mass extinction. The experts found that, about 550 million years ago – during the so-called Ediacaran period – 80 percent of life on Earth was decimated due to a series of environmental changes. Ediacaran organisms – which were the first complex, multicellular life-forms on our planet – would be considered strange by today’s standards. Although many of them could move, they were unlike any animals currently roaming the Earth. “These animals were the first evolutionary experiment on Earth, but they only lasted about ten million years. Not long at all, in evolutionary terms,” said study senior author Mary Droser, a paleoecologist at UCR. Previously, scientists sought to disprove that the loss of the vast majority of these organisms was a mass extinction, arguing that the event could be explained by the right data not being collected, or changes in animal behavior, such as the arrival of predators. However, this new study shows this could have been in fact the first mass extinction our planet faced. “We can see the animals’ spatial distribution over time, so we know they didn’t just move elsewhere or get eaten – they died out,” “We suspected such an event, but to prove it we had to assemble a massive database of evidence,” Moreover, since these animals were soft bodied and did not preserve well in the fossil record, this event was more difficult to document. However, by documenting nearly every known Ediacaran animal’s environment, body size, diet, ability to move, and habits, as well as by tracking the creatures’ surface area to volume ratios, the scientists argued that declining oxygen levels may have been to blame for their deaths. “Geological records show that the world’s oceans lost a lot of oxygen during that time, and the few species that did survive had bodies adapted for lower oxygen environments,” said Tu. Thus, although it is not yet clear why oxygen levels declined so precipitously during that period, it is clear that environmental changes can destabilize and destroy life on our planet at any time – as it is most likely happening now too.
Buffalo snow: Western New York digs out from up to 6 feet of accumulation — Heavy snow is expected to keep piling up in western New York state through Sunday after a historic storm saw the Buffalo area logging record snowfall totaling more than 6 feet in some areas. Just after 11 p.m. Saturday, the National Weather Service in Buffalo issued a special weather statement warning a band of heavy snow accompanied by high winds was creating a “burst of snow” in western New York state. The band was moving south of the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, the weather service said.By Sunday morning, winds shifted more westerly, meaning the heaviest lake-effect snow bands are now south of Buffalo impacting areas from Cleveland to Dunkirk, New York. Buffalo is no longer under a lake-effect snow warning but remains under a winter weather advisory through Sunday evening for “blowing snow,” according to the weather service.While the Buffalo area is used to dealing with heavy snowfall, this storm is delivering “much more than we usually get,” Mayor Byron Brown told CNN Saturday.Erie County, which includes Buffalo, experienced its largest-ever amount of snowfall in a 24-hour period Saturday, according to Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz.“This was a RECORD-BREAKING storm that in some ways was more intense than Snowvember, the relatively quick recovery is a testament to everyone’s preparation and planning,” Poloncarz tweeted. “The proactive approach continues to work.”“Snowvember” refers to a storm in the Buffalo area in November 2014, where nearly 7 feet of snow was dumped in three days. At least 13 people died in that storm and the weight of the snow caused dozens of roofs to crumble under the impact.Two people have died in this storm from cardiac complications related to shoveling snow and attempting to clear the ground, Poloncarz said.As the heaviest snow slid south of the greater Buffalo area into southern Erie and Chautauqua counties overnight, an additional 6 to 18 inches is possible in the region, especially across higher terrain, CNN Meteorologist Derek Van Dam said.The heaviest snowfall Sunday will be east of Lake Ontario, where up to a foot of additional snow is forecast with localized areas potentially seeing even more. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph across the Great Lakes region, which will lead to very cold conditions with temperatures feeling like single digits to slightly below zero.
Deadly lake-effect snowfall shuts down travel, shatters New York state’s 24-hour accumulation record | AccuWeather -New Yorkers face the arduous task of cleaning up from an “extreme” lake-effect snowfall that blasted the region from Thursday into Sunday, unloading more than 6 feet of snow, stranding motorists, forcing travel bans and school closures.Overnight drone survey captures the 55 inches of snow in Hamburg, New York, before the snow band moved back in.Mountains of snow lined roads and driveways in western New York Monday as residents continued the arduous task of digging out from one of the most significant lake-effect events in recent history. The area just a few miles south of Buffalo, New York, was the focal point of a vigorous band of lake-effect snow that unloaded over 6 feet in some locations, with people running out of places to put all of the powder.The extreme snowstorm is being blamed for at least three fatalities. Two people suffered from cardiac events while clearing snow in Erie County, according to The Associated Press, with a third Erie County death from the same cause confirmed by Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz on Monday. A snowplow driver in Hamlet, Indiana, was also killed on Friday after his vehicle slid off the road amid lake-effect snow coming off of Lake Michigan, the AP said.FEMA approved the emergency declaration for Erie County and surrounding areas early on Monday. This will help reimburse costs accrued by the county, cities, towns and villages during this event. As of Monday morning, Erie County was still under a state of emergency. Travel bans were still in effect for parts of Buffalo on Monday, but bans had been replaced by advisories in other parts of Erie County. Hamburg, New York, located 14 miles south of downtown Buffalo, measured a colossal 81.2 inches of accumulation as of Monday afternoon, topping the Orchard Park (located 11 miles southeast of downtown Buffalo) total by 1.2 inches. Orchard Park was initially slated to be the location of Sunday’s NFL game as the Buffalo Bills face off against the Cleveland Browns, but due to safety concerns and the work it would take to clear the snow from the stadium and parking lots by kickoff, the matchup was moved to Ford Field in Detroit.Furthermore, Orchard Park unofficially received 66 inches of accumulation over a 24-hour timespan. If confirmed by the New York state climatology office, this would set a new state record for the most snowfall in a 24-hour period. The current record stands at 50 inches, measured in Camden, New York, in 1966. In some areas near Buffalo, dump trucks were brought in to remove snow to help with the back-breaking work of clearing roads and to make room for more snow if more lake-effect snow develops. “When the snow started getting very heavy, I just had to keep up with it,” Orchard Park resident Dave Santana told AccuWeather National Reporter Jillian Angeline. “That was the only way, to keep ahead of it." New York Gov. Kathy Hochul called the event "extreme" in a press conference on Thursday before the worst of the snow began as a state of emergency began to be issued for nearly a dozen counties. Ahead of the first snowflakes, over 300 plows and 5,700 power crews were deployed or placed on standby.On Saturday morning, 70 members of the National Guard were deployed to southtowns. On Saturday afternoon, the amount of National Guard members dispatched more than doubled to 150, according to CBC.Travel became nearly impossible for trucks and snow plows as the snow poured down at a rate of 3-5 inches per hour at times, making it difficult for crews to keep the roads visible. Reports of thundersnow were prolific amid the intense band streaming off of Lake Erie and videos showed a wall of snow moving toward Buffalo at one point. A waterspout was also reported on Friday over Lake Erie, another sign of just how potent the weather system affecting the region had become.Many schools across the region will remain closed on Monday due to the long-lasting impact from the lake-effect snow.
Hamburg, NY hit by 2.06 m (81.2 inches) of snow in just 4 days - (video) A new official storm total of 2.06 m (81.2 inches) has been recorded in Hamburg, Erie County, New York from November 16 to 20, 2022. This surpasses the total for Orchard Park, NY at 2.03 m (80.0 inches) for the most recent lake effect snow emergency, extreme meteorologist Reed Timmer reports. “I believe this surpasses the 2014 lake effect snow event in the Buffalo Southtowns by a few inches, although the wind was a bit less,” Timmer said. This video shows the scenes around Hamburg, NY of the heaviest snowfall that contributed to this record-breaking snow event.
Record-setting Ontario storm drops over a metre of snow, strong winds forecasted - - More than a metre of snow blanketed parts of the Bruce Peninsula as arctic air descended over the Great Lakes and picked up the warmth and moisture of the unfrozen waters in what’s called a lake-effect snow event.A key marker of a storm’s intensity is the temperature difference between the lake and arctic air. If lakes stay warmer longer into the fall, the first big outbreak of arctic air could produce stronger snow squalls, said Geoff Coulson, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada.“That is certainly something that could be possible over the course of the coming decades with warmer summers and warmer falls, resulting in warmer lake temperatures,” he said in an interview Monday.“Certainly, I think it’s these earlier season lake-effect events that could see some signature from climate change going forward.”The storm dumped around 120 centimetres on parts of the Bruce Peninsula in southwestern Ontario. On Sunday alone, about 53 centimetres of snow fell in Wiarton, breaking the area’s single-day snowfall record that has stood since 1982.Schools were open but buses in the area were cancelled Monday, as residents dug out of snowbanks taller than some students.Ian Boddy, mayor of the nearby city of Owen Sound, said the storm stood out as one of the “big whoppers” to hit the area in recent memory.He expected most streets to be cleared by the end of the day as snowplows worked through emergency routes and major thoroughfares, to secondary and back streets.Boddy said by the time he finished shovelling his laneway Sunday, another three centimetres had fallen at the other end. In a statement, police said a 44-year-old woman needed medical attention after she was found in a snowbank suffering from hypothermia. Earlier Sunday, police said officers helped shovel the entryway of a man with a disability who had called them after he was unable to leave the house through the snowed-in front door. Environment Canada warned Monday that the region, as well as hard-hit areas around Niagara and Kingston, could see wind gusting up to 80 kilometres an hour. New York recorded even more snow in the weekend storm, as the U.S. National Weather Service reported nearly 200 centimetres just outside Buffalo by Saturday. President Joe Biden granted a request to send federal aid to help state and local officials help clean up the massive storm.
Thundersnow caught on camera as extreme lake effect snow hits Buffalo, New York - (2 videos) The Weather Network storm chaser Mark Robinson captured the moment thundersnow struck during a snow squall on November 17, 2022, in Lackawanna, New York. On the same day, FOX Weather’s Katie Byrne also captured a video of a thundersnow in New York.
A surprising trigger of western New York ‘thundersnow’: Wind turbines - The Washington Post -By Bob Henson - Sparks of groundbreaking science are emerging from the historic lake-effect snowstorm that pummeled western New York over the weekend. A research project based at State University of New York at Oswego (SUNY Oswego) has gathered unprecedented data on how wind turbines canspawn lightning within a snowstorm, often referred to as “thundersnow.”Sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Project LEE (Lake-Effect Electrification) runs through March 2023. The study has already snagged a major win from the intense multiday episode of lake-effect snow that hammered the east ends of Lakes Ontario and Erie, including the Buffalo area.On Friday night, dozens of lightning flashes were detected in snow bands across the Tug Hill Plateau. Maple Ridge Wind Farm — New York’s largest, with 195 turbines — sits atop the plateau about 50 miles northeast of the Oswego campus. It’s a spot well suited for generating wind energy but also notorious for some of the heaviest lake-effect snow on Earth.SUNY Oswego meteorology professor Scott Steiger was up all night watching data roll in. A lightning mapping array (LMA), which consists of 16 sensors deployed across the plateau, is designed to piece together a three-dimensional portrait of each lightning flash.“It was the most lightning I’ve ever seen in lake-effect snow,” Steiger said Sunday, adding that he was “tired” but “elated.”According to Steiger, this field project marks the first time lightning flashes within snow bands are being observed in such thorough detail. Steiger is co-directing Project LEE with another SUNY Oswego faculty member, Yonggang Wang.A Doppler on Wheels (DOW) mobile radar unit from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign is on hand for the next few weeks of the project. The DOW data will help researchers connect the lightning formation to precipitation processes occurring within each snow band.As the local snow bands — oriented roughly from west to east, parallel with Lake Ontario — oscillate to the north and south over the course of a multiday event, the DOW is working to keep up with them. On Friday night, the DOW captured intense snow bands near Watertown, north of Oswego and the wind farm. The radar redeployed closer to Oswego itself Sunday. “Today’s storm was very electrified,” said Doppler on Wheels founder Josh Wurman in an email Sunday. “The project is going exceptionally well so far.” A native of Upstate New York, Steiger was also part of a previous study, the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) project, that gathered and analyzed radar and aircraft data on snow bands in winter 2013-14.It was OWLeS data that inspired Project LEE. Most of the lightning observed in OWLeS occurred inland rather than near and off the lakeshore, surprising the study team.SUNY Oswego professor Robert Ballentine, now retired, noticed that the wind farm seemed to coincide with the location of the peak inland lightning. The next step, now being addressed in Project LEE, is to map out more precisely how lighting is triggered within snow bands.
Southern U.S. storm forecast to unleash many months’ worth of snow on parts of New Mexico and Texas, U.S. - Moderate to major impacts are likely across much of southeast New Mexico and parts of West Texas through early this weekend due to heavy snow and gusty winds. A storm tracking through the southern United States will pack heavy rain that will hinder post-Thanksgiving travel and could trigger urban flooding in Houston, Atlanta, and New Orleans, AccuWeather meteorologists say The same storm will also unleash many months’ worth of snow on parts of New Mexico and western Texas into the Thanksgiving weekend The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western Gulf Coast through Saturday morning.1 The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Moreover, temperatures will be 5 to 15 °C (10 to 30 °F) below average under the upper-level low under the Southern High Plains. Meanwhile, the moisture that will intersect with the cold temperatures will produce areas of heavy snow over parts of western Texas and the Southern High Plains on Friday, ending on Saturday morning. The snow will result in reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions. Therefore, the snow has prompted Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories through Saturday, November 26. The heaviest snow is likely to fall along the Texas and New Mexico border through a large part of eastern New Mexico from Thursday night to early Saturday. “Roswell, New Mexico, which averages 244 mm (9.6 inches) of snow per year, could receive an entire season’s worth of snow from this single storm,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
A warmer Arctic Ocean leads to more snowfall further south, according to new model - A new model explains that water evaporating from the Arctic Ocean due to a warming climate is transported south and can lead to increased snowfall in northern Eurasia in late autumn and early winter. This information will allow for more accurate predictions of severe weather events. Rising air temperatures due to warming melt glaciers and polar ice caps. Seemingly paradoxically, snow cover in some areas in northern Eurasia has increased over the past decades. However, snow is a form of water; global warming increases the quantity of moisture in the atmosphere, and thus the quantity and likelihood of rain and snow. Understanding where exactly the moisture comes from, how it is produced and how it is transported south is relevant for better predictions of extreme weather and the evolution of the climate.Hokkaido University environmental scientist Tomonori Sato and his team developed a new tagged moisture transport model that relies on the "Japanese 55-year reanalysis dataset," a painstaking reanalysis of world-wide historical weather data over the span of the past 55 years. The group used this material to keep their model calibrated over much longer distances than hitherto possible and were thus able to shed light onto the mechanism of the moisture transport in particular over the vast landmasses of Siberia.A standard technique to analyze moisture transport is the "tagged moisture transport model." This is a computer modeling technique that tracks where hypothetical chunks of atmospheric moisture form, how they are moved around, and where they precipitate due to the local climatic conditions. But the computer models become more and more inaccurate as the distance to the ocean increases. In particular, this makes quantitative predictions difficult. Thus, these methods have not been able to satisfyingly explain the snowfall in northern Eurasia.The results of the study, published in the journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science show that water evaporation from the Arctic Ocean has increased over the past four decades, and that the biggest changes have occurred from the Barents and Kara Seas north of western Siberia, as well as over the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas north of eastern Siberia, between October and December. At this time of year, the Arctic Ocean is still warm and the area not covered by ice is still large. Importantly, this development coincides with the area where sea ice retreat has been strongest over the time frame of the study. In addition, the quantitative model shows that evaporation and snowfall are especially strong during certain weather events such as cyclonic systems taking up unusually large quantities of moisture and transporting them south into Siberia, thus also highlighting detailed and specific mechanistic insights into the weather dynamics of the region.With the Arctic Ocean being twice as sensitive to rapid warming than the global average, evaporation and subsequent changes to the hydrological cycle over northern Eurasia will become even more pronounced in the years to come.
Drought costing California agriculture billions --As California’s drought stretches into a third straight year, the state’s agriculture industry is incurring billions in related losses, a new study has found. The report estimates direct impacts on farm activity of $1.2 billion this year — up from $810 million in 2021.But the effects of the drought in 2022 extended far beyond that $1.2 billion sum, according to the report, released by the University of California, Merced’s Water Systems Management Lab.Impacts on food processing industries that depend on farm products were about $845 million in 2022 — up from $590 million last year. “California is no stranger to drought, but this current drought has hit really hard in some of the typically water-rich parts of the state that are essential for the broader state water supply,” co-author John Abatzoglou, a professor of climatology at UC Merced, said in a statement. Altogether, the combined direct and indirect consequences of the drought have reached about $2 billion in value-added losses this year alone, researchers found.These losses amount to a 5.9 percent reduction when compared to those of 2019 and also resulted in 19,420 job cuts, according to the study. In addition to suffering the impacts of the drought, California’s agricultural economy has also suffered from supply chain disruptions, including the ability to ship crops out of state, the authors explained. Such delays could result in increased inventory and influence some of California’s specialty crop prices, according to the study. While acknowledging such negative effects of the drought on agriculture, the researchers found that things could have been worse.
Florida Orange Juice Supplies Squeezed, Forcing Ag Traders To Pull From Brazil - US cold storage of orange juice plunged to the lowest level in half a century after extreme weather in Florida and citrus greening damaged production. Dwlinidnig supplies boosted breakfast inflation as prices of orange juice hit record highs. There has since been a dramatic increase in the orange juice trade between the US and South America to balance out supplies. Brazilian exports of orange juice to the US in the first four months of the season surged 58% from a year ago to a record 112,500 metric tons at the end of October, according to Bloomberg, citing data from Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade.US ag traders are resorting to Brazil, one of the world's top exporters of citrus, comes as US stockpiles of cold-stored orange juice plunged by 43% in September from a year earlier -- the lowest level since 1977, according to the latest US Department of Agriculture data. A combination of diseases across Florida's citrus groves and Hurricane Ian destroyed crops are creating a supply crunch that has catapulted orange juice futures to record highs of more than $2 per pound. We recently outlined "Orange Juice Prices Could "Increase Substantially" As Hurricane Pummels Florida's Top Citrus Grow Region." And that's precisely what's happening. So much so that demand exceeds supply boosting prices to record highs, and US ag traders resort to South South America to fill gaps. Rabobank analyst Andres Padilla wrote in a recent note to clients that orange juice prices are set to rise 20-30% in US and Europe by early 2023.
Florida beaches were already running low on sand. Then Ian and Nicole hit. - — In the days since Hurricane Nicole lashed this stretch of Florida coast with punishing winds and a powerful storm surge, contractor A.J. Rockwell has found himself on an urgent mission. He has to find sand — tons of it — and fast.Property owners in a picturesque beachside community just south of Daytona Beach hired him to buttress their homes with new sand after the Category 1 storm — the second cyclone to hit the state in the span of six weeks. Swimming pools, porches and even entire houses crashed into the ocean below when the sand beneath them eroded. But these days the usual sources for sand — nearby underwater mounds and healthy beaches in other parts of the Sunshine State — are running low. What can be found is pricey. Rockwell estimates each house needs at least 275 dump truckloads pushed underneath to be saved — which at the current price of $1,200 a load comes out to $330,000 per home. His phone lights up constantly with messages from sources offering tips on where he can try to score some of the scarce good. “Right now, it’s not even available, or it’s available in very limited quantities,” Rockwell said as he directed his crew working at a house standing precariously near a cliff. Two weeks after Nicole, officials in hard-hit communities along Florida’s Atlantic coast say the dearth of sand has become an emergency. Nicole and Ian, which slammed into the western coast of Florida in late September, collectively snatched millions of cubic yards of sand from the coastline. In this section of Northeast Florida, local officials and residents are struggling to find sand to support oceanfront buildings and rebuild beaches. The predicament underscores a vital problem for Florida: the state draws millions of visitors each year to its famous beaches, but successive storms, climate change, rising sea levels and a diminishing supply of sand means they are steadily dwindling in size. A state report published over the summer — before the two hurricanes hit — found that more than half of Florida’s sandy beaches are critically eroded. “I think we’re starting to discover that, despite our best efforts and wanting to throw as much money at this as possible, it has become very difficult to keep these beaches as wide as we would like to keep them,” Robert S. Young, a geology professor at Western Carolina University and director of the Program for Developed Shorelines, which helps identify long-term solutions for imperiled coastlines. “We simply don’t have the capacity to hold all of these beaches in place.”
Navigation Pinch Point on Mississippi River Moves North-- The pinch point for navigation on the Mississippi River has moved upstream from Memphis, Tennessee, to St. Louis as the Army Corps of Engineers starts to reduce flows from the upstream Missouri River dams this weekend. Lower water flows coming from the Missouri River will lead to longer dredging operations on the Mississippi River around St. Louis to keep a navigation channel open. Barge movements remain slow, but the New Orleans area grain terminals last week reported a 35% increase in barges they were able to unload compared to a week earlier, according to a weekly USDA report. Brad Rippey, a meteorologist at the USDA Office of Chief Economist, said Friday on a webinar that spot barge rates have dropped from $110 a metric ton in October down to closer to $40 a metric ton now. The rate had run at $20 a ton for much of the year. For farmers, Rippey said this has translated to some producers on the lower Mississippi River receiving $2 less per bushel for both corn and soybeans. "We started seeing these big spikes in the cost of moving agricultural products downstream, and that has led to some of these spot prices going up to $2 to even over $3 (less)," Rippey said. "So that's really cutting into the profit margins for some of these producers." Barges have been pinched by the shallow drafts. The barges themselves are carrying about 30% less to meet a 9-foot draft, and the tows are moving fewer barges because of the narrow channel. Tow operators that would normally move 45 barges are now restricted to 35 southbound and 25 northbound. "It presents a certain challenge trying to find the navigation channel," said Paul Rohde, vice president of government affairs for the Waterways Council Inc., which advocates for the inland waterway operators. Rhode described the situation as, "I'd say right now we have got a stabilized crisis." Rhode added the economic costs of a shallow Mississippi River might be hard to quantify, "but the impacts are in the billions of dollars." At its slowest point in October, barge movements on the Mississippi River dropped from a three-year average of 700 barges down to closer to 150 barges. Tonnage fell from 1 million metric tons (mmt)a week down closer to 150,000 metric tons (mt).
Growing storms push shrinking La. insurers into failure - More than a year after Hurricane Ida swept across Louisiana, the Category 4 storm is triggering a property-insurance crisis in the state that has bankrupted 11 insurance companies and will force some homeowners to pay annual premiums of nearly $18,000.In addition to the insolvencies, 10 insurers have left the state, others are declining to write new policies, and many insurers are refusing to cover at-risk properties including homes with roofs that are more than 10 years old, according to officials and documents.Louisiana’s crisis could get even worse as insurers start paying tens of billions of dollars in claims for Hurricane Ian in Florida. Although Ian did not hit Louisiana, many Louisiana insurers also write policies in Florida, where they face huge losses.“Most of the market we have are these small, specialty coastal homeowner companies. Most do business in Florida and Louisiana, so they just got clobbered,” said Jeff Albright, CEO of the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of Louisiana.“I have been in the insurance business in Louisiana for almost 45 years, and I would describe this as the worst insurance crisis in my time in the business,” Albright added.The problems in Louisiana resemble those that have been building for three years in Florida, where rates are soaring as insurers quit the state — but with one big difference.The insurance losses in Florida before Hurricane Ian were due largely to litigation brought by homeowners and home-repair contractors. Louisiana insurers are withering from claims filed after a series of four hurricanes in 2020 and 2021, including two Category 4 storms.“We are having more frequent and more severe storms,” Albright said.In a one-year span starting in August 2020, Louisiana was hit by Hurricane Laura, a Category 4 storm, followed in quick succession by Hurricanes Delta and Zeta, both Category 2.Hurricane Ida in 2021 was the fifth-costliest U.S. natural disaster since 1980, according to NOAA, and caused extensive damage throughout Louisiana’s heavily populated eastern half and as far north as New York and New Jersey.The four hurricanes caused an estimated $22 billion in insured losses in Louisiana, according to the Insurance Information Institute, an industry-funded research group.The cost resulted in part from the Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain problems, which drove up the price of labor and materials, according to a report in October by the Louisiana Department of Insurance.The recent losses nearly rival the $28 billion in claims in Louisiana from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.But the recent hurricanes occurred after Katrina had reshaped the Louisiana insurance market by chasing away large national insurers that could absorb huge losses. They’ve been replaced by smaller regional insurance companies that lack the reserves to handle catastrophic losses and rely on reinsurance, which is becoming increasingly scarce and costly. Reinsurance is coverage that insurance companies buy to pay for catastrophic losses. Eleven property-insurance companies became insolvent between July 2021 and September 2022, according to the insurance department. The insurers wrote 185,000 policies combined, which accounted for 13 percent of the state total.
Record-breaking rains cause devastating flash floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia - At least two people have lost their lives after record-breaking rainfall caused devastating flash floods in the city of Jeddah (population 4 million), Saudi Arabia’s Mecca Province on November 24, 2022. Between 08:00 and 14:00 LT on November 24, Jeddah’s southern area recorded 179 mm (7.04 inches) of rainfall, setting a new all-time 24-hour record for the city. In just two hours, the city recorded 60 mm (2.36 inches) of rain. According to Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology, the rainfall that hit Jeddah today exceeded the amount of rainfall registered in 2009 when flash floods killed 123 people.1 Unofficial reports mention as much as 246 mm (9.68 inches) of rain in 10 hours and a peak rate of 900 mm (35.4 inches) per hour at a private weather station. The resulting flash floods turned roads into raging rivers, sweeping away cars, stranding drivers, and damaging homes. The city’s King Abdulaziz International Airport announced flight delays and urged all passengers to contact carriers for up-to-date schedules. The official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported before dawn that schools in the city would be closed, as rains were forecast to continue throughout the day. Schools were also closed in the nearby towns of Rabigh and Khulais to preserve the safety of students.
50 homes damaged after strong tornado hits Marpingen, Germany - At least 50 homes were damaged after a strong tornado swept through the town of Marpigen, Saarland, Germany on November 17, 2022. The worst of the storm lasted only about ten seconds, according to eyewitnesses, but the intense winds snapped trees, which then fell onto houses, driving some residents outdoors in panic. The winds were strong enough to send bricks flying through the air, shattering car windows.1 More than fifty residences were damaged by the tornado. Some had portions of their roofs removed, while others had their roofs nearly completely destroyed. The most severe damage was limited to a few streets and no injuries were reported.
Widespread power outages after very strong and shallow M7.0 earthquake hit Solomon Islands - A very strong and shallow earthquake, registered by the USGS as M7.0, hit the Solomon Islands at 02:03 UTC on November 22, 2022, at a depth of 15 km (9.3 miles). The quake was followed by M6.0 at 02:37 UTC at a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). The epicenter was located 18.6 km (11.6 miles) SW of Malango (population 10 532), and 57.4 km (35.6 miles) SW of Honiara (population 56 298), Solomon Islands. 12 000 people are estimated to have felt very strong shaking, 180 000 strong, 78 000 moderate, and 214 000 light. The USGS issued a Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are mud wall and informal (metal, timber, GI etc.) construction. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as tsunamis and landslides that might have contributed to losses.
Buildings damaged and power lost after earthquakes hit Solomon Islands - Buildings were left damaged and widespread power outages reported in the Solomons Island capital, Honiara, after two earthquakes struck just off the south-west coast on Tuesday. The first magnitude 7.0 earthquake briefly triggered a tsunami warning from the United States Geological Survey, but this warning was withdrawn soon after. A second quake, with a magnitude of 6.0, struck nearby 30 minutes later. Power was out in some areas of Honiara and Solomon Islands Broadcasting said in a statement that all radio services were off air. The Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said the roof of the Australian high commission annexe in Honiara had collapsed, “which points to likely damage throughout the city”. “We have contacted prime minister Sogavare to once again indicate Australia stands ready to assist.” Albanese said all staff of the Australian high commission were safe, but confirming the safety of all Australians in Solomon Islands was difficult because telecommunications had been disrupted. The quake near Malango was shallow, with a depth of 10km, the USGS said. People reported violent shaking that threw televisions and other items to the ground. “The earthquake rocked the place,” he said. “It was a huge one. We were all shocked, and everyone is running everywhere.” The nation’s attorney general, John Muria, posted images on social media of office files spilled from large metal filing cabinets.An AFP reporter in the capital said the shaking lasted for about 20 seconds.
More than 270 people killed after shallow M5.6 earthquake hits near Jakarta, Indonesia - A shallow earthquake, registered by the BMKG, USGS and EMSC as M5.6, hit West Java, Indonesia at 06:21 UTC on November 21, 2022. All agencies are reporting a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). The quake resulted in the deaths of more than 160 people. The number is expected to rise.The epicenter was located 18.3 km (11.4 miles) WSW of Ciranjang-hilir (population 77 758), 19.9 km (12.4 miles) ENE of Sukabumi (population 276 414), 57.1 km (35.5 miles) W if Bandung (population 1.7 million) and 76 km (47 miles) SSE from the center of Jakarta (population 10.5 million).232 000 people are estimated to have felt severe shaking, 514 000 very strong, 1 131 000 strong and 1 980 000 moderate. 25 aftershocks were registered in the two hours after the mainshock.
Asteroid 2022 WJ1 impacts Earth over Niagara Falls - the 6th asteroid detected before impact - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 WJ1 impacted Earth’s atmosphere over Niagara Falls at 08:27 UTC on November 19, 2022, becoming the 6th asteroid to be discovered before impacting Earth.The object was first observed at Mt. Lemmon Survey at 04:53 UTC – just a couple of hours before the impact.Asteroid 2022 WJ1 belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids. Its estimated diameter is between 0.5 and 1.2 m (1.6 – 3.9 feet).The entry of this object produced a bright fireball and was captured on cameras.Numerous people reported hearing a very loud boom associated with this event.
- I captured meteor #c8ff042 in Brantford,Ontario Canada at with my GoPro It was capturing 30sec shots all night and got this shot pic.twitter.com/grTgtPQreU — Dereck Bowen (@dereckbowen) November 19, 2022
- ~1-m space object – temporary designation #C8FF042 – strikes Earth over Canada, creating stunning #fireball For only the 6th time in history, this impact was predicted. Find out more about predicting #asteroid impacts from the last time this happened https://t.co/zwPKXeUEUl https://t.co/XbDqtiDuompic.twitter.com/5yHGWibSki — ESA Operations (@esaoperations) November 19, 2022
- Heard a big explosion last night and found this on our camera this morning! #meteor pic.twitter.com/ILtIQWSbp8 — Sarah Gorsline (@SarahGorsline) November 19, 2022
- #AsteroidImpact#Safe#Fireball#ShootingStar #C8FF042, Rob Weryk @UHawaiiNews https://t.co/KZiY2gU7kI pic.twitter.com/odZqphQKCj — ESA Operations (@esaoperations) November 19, 2022
- My doorbell caught #C8FF042 entering the atmosphere head on. Really interesting to see from this angle. This was near Crown Point East in Hamilton, ON. pic.twitter.com/6sOO16TEXN — Dave Dunville (@davedunville) November 19, 2022
- Bright fireball over Southern Ontario last night at 3:26 am caused by impact of asteroid 2022WJ1. This sub-meter-sized asteroid (one of the smallest NEAs ever detected) produced a spectacular fireball, though it was cloudy in many locations. Video from Western's meteor network:pic.twitter.com/e5LkY7qWw4 — Peter Brown (@pgbrown) November 19, 2022
Egypt’s COP27 PR disaster – — This country, famous for one mighty river, will be hoping the stream of sewage that flooded through the COP27 conference site was the nadir of an event that is quickly turning into a public relations nightmare.That seems unlikely. Hosting the conference was supposed to showcase Egypt as an ambitious champion of renewable energy, a tourist destination and a reliable international actor. The talks themselves, held in a beachside resort town, were supposed to push forward the global response to climate change.Instead, top officials from Europe and elsewhere have been investigating reports that youth delegates have been left without beds, subjected to extortion, forced to sleep in rooms with no locks and woken up in the night by arbitrary demands for documents — all as part of a program sponsored by the Egyptian Ministry of Youth and Sports.According to three people familiar with the situation, around 80 youth delegates who had paid around $700 each for their accommodation arrived at their hotel late on Saturday to find they either had no rooms, or were being asked to pay an additional fee of between $300 and $600 per night.Following hours-long negotiations, some were forced to find new accommodation in the early hours of the morning. Those who finally entered their rooms — in some cases after agreeing to the extra fee — found them filthy and with only four beds for six or seven people. Several were forced to sleep in rooms with no locks and were woken by men entering and demanding their passports.The Egyptian COP organizers are now under intense diplomatic pressure over the situation, after key negotiators had to leave the talks to ensure their youth delegates were safe. The EU and other delegations raised their concerns with the Egyptian government, the EU’s top international climate policy adviser Jacob Werksman said.
SPECIAL REPORT: Summit yields 'historic win' for climate payments - — Countries meeting in Egypt clinched a deal early Sunday that could send billions of dollars from wealthy countries to help developing nations treat the symptoms of climate change.But the agreement’s final text also offered its tacit blessing to natural gas, a fossil fuel that’s worsening the underlying disease.That surprise last-minute addition dulled the sense of triumph for activists who had hailed the major achievement of this two-week U.N. climate summit — the first-ever global agreement calling for creation of a new global fund to pay for climate damage afflicting less-wealthy countries. The U.S. and European Union will face pressure to contribute to the fund but also want China to pay.Details about the fund will need to be filled out at next year’s climate summit in the United Arab Emirates.People in the summit meeting hall broke into loud applause and hugged when organizers announced the deal on climate payments, after an arduous final day and night of negotiating. It was a long-fought win for the countries that are burning, drowning and sweltering under the already-rampant impacts of global warming, and swept away decades of U.S. and European opposition.Only later did people read the complete final text, which had been prepared by the summit’s Egyptian hosts. That text included a message that “low-emission” energy should be part of the world’s response to rising seas and searing heat waves. The term was vague enough to cover multiple interpretations — it certainly includes nuclear power, or some forms of hydrogen. But defenders of natural gas consistently note that it produces less carbon dioxide pollution than either coal or oil — though it still contributes to baking the planet. New Zealand’s climate change minister, James Shaw, called it “a mystery” how the language slipped into the final text, and he downplayed the idea that it would give countries license to use gas. Still, he said the language could be read as including natural gas.“The option of interpreting that way always existed, and countries have interpreted it that way,” he told reporters. “I don’t agree with it. But, you know, that’s kind of their interpretation.”More broadly, the agreement includes few provisions that would hasten countries’ efforts to cut greenhouse gas pollution or shift away from fossil fuels. That’s another disappointment for climate advocates, who say the deal may consign even more communities to rising seas and worsening droughts and storms — which will then require more rounds of aid.Attempts during the talks to push for steeper carbon reductions fell flat in the face of resistance from large polluters and producers of fossil fuels, including Saudi Arabia and China. Oil- and gas-rich nations also squashed a push to widen a promised phase down of coal burning to include all fossil fuels. Meanwhile, scientific evidence is mounting that the world is falling far short of the kinds of carbon cuts needed to avert catastrophe.Appearances by President Joe Biden and incoming Brazilian leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva punctuated the summit, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry came down with Covid-19 at the critical moment, and delegates complained about food shortages and a river of sewage that ran through the negotiation compound. In swallowing the climate damage fund, the United States and the European Union were forced to break with decades of entrenched resistance to paying out for damage caused by their own greenhouse gas pollution — unwilling to be pinned for any form of liability. Transatlantic unity was tested and split by an organized bloc of 134 developing countries, mustered by flood-struck Pakistan.
The US Pledges "Climate Reparations" To Other Countries While Americans Freeze And Become Homeless - More people than ever are facing dire circumstances, and we’re just getting started with this economic disaster. And what is our government doing?Why, they’re giving our money away.To other countries, no less. The U.S. government agreed to pay “climate reparations.” But the plight of our own countrymen seems to be less important than those in other countries affected by climate change. The United States has just agreed to pay up to a billion dollars to poor countries for “climate reparations.” As per an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal:The use of climate policy to soak Americans keeps getting worse, and the United Nation’s climate conference in Egypt ended this weekend with agreement on a new fund to pay reparations to poor countries. Welcome to the latest climate shakedown.The 2015 Paris accord suggested rich countries compensate poor countries for climate damage—the rationale being that industrialization has increased temperatures and led to natural disasters. Poor countries finally forced discussion of a formal mechanism to pay climate reparations onto this year’s U.N. conference agenda.…on Thursday Europe abandoned the U.S. by proposing a deal, and Mr. Kerry rolled over.Wealthy countries will now set up a fund to cover climate damage for the least developed countries—i.e., not China or middle-income nations. This will be financed from “a broad donor base” and “mosaic of solutions,” such as international development banks and taxes on aviation, shipping and fossil fuels.Some reports suggest that the US will be on the hook for up to a billion dollars. In October, it was reported that the total amount due would be $4.3 trillion.That’s the sum the US and other major carbon polluters will face at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt next month.Well, other polluters except for China.China is not contributing jack sh*t. It’s essential to note that out of all the polluters in the world, China is the worst offender, creating 30% of the world’s carbon emissions.Yet, they’re exempt from this outrageous bill. Not one thin dime shall they pay. I’m not a fan of China’s dystopian policies and government, but at least they aren’t causing shortages and suffering in their own country in order to virtue signal how green they are.In the end, it’s just the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. Says the WSJ:Countries might also shake down U.S. fossil-fuel producers in their own courts. Climate reparations will merely serve as another form of global income redistribution. The Biden Administration’s surrender shows again that the religion of climate change is progressive penance for the sin of being prosperous.In doing this, they ignore the plight of everyday Americans who can’t afford to run their heat or keep their homes.
COP27 is over. What did it achieve? --Amid sky-high energy prices, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and an ongoing global pandemic, the 27th United Nations climate change conference, or COP27, drew to a close with mixed results on Sunday. The negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, ended with ahistoric agreement to set up a fund for “loss and damage,” a shorthand for the unavoidable effects of climate change that the developing world is disproportionately grappling with. But on a suite of other measures — such as phasing down the use of oil and gas and increasing funding for adaptation — COP27 delivered little progress, keeping the world on a path that will lead to warming of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), a critical threshold for avoiding catastrophic climate disruptions. While many climate justice advocates praised the hard-won victory on loss and damage, celebrations were muted on Sunday. “Without a phaseout of fossil fuels we are setting the world on a path for further losses and damages,” said May Boeve, executive director of the climate advocacy nonprofit 350.org, in a statement. “This is where the COP has failed.” Negotiators overcame great odds to secure the landmark loss and damage deal. The conference was supposed to close on Friday but ran into early Sunday morning with bleary-eyed diplomats working through the night and into the early morning. Logistical challenges also pushed diplomats to the edge, with many blaming the COP27 presidency, headed by Egypt’s foreign minister Sameh Shoukry, for poor management. Food and water were limited at the venue, the Wi-Fi was spotty, and restrooms were at times out of toilet paper. At one point, a sewage line burst, flooding a street. And in the final hours of the conference, United States climate envoy John Kerry contracted COVID-19. Many countries arrived in Egypt eager to build on the progress made at last year’s conference in Glasgow, Scotland, which culminated in a landmark agreement to “phase down” the use of “unabated coal power and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” While this was weaker than an earlier draft’s language to “phase out” allcoal power and fossil fuel subsidies, it was the first mention of fossil fuels in a COP text. But in the final hours of this year’s negotiations, those hopes were quashed by a coalition of mostly fossil fuel-producing countries led by China and Saudi Arabia. A proposal from India to agree to phase down all fossil fuels was thrown out. A push by the EU to reach peak greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 was also vetoed. Alok Sharma, a member of the British Parliament and president of COP26, lamented that it was a battle to even get countries to recommit to a key tenet of the Glasgow Climate Pact — a call on all parties to “revisit and strengthen” their plans to cut emissions. “I said in Glasgow that the pulse of 1.5 degrees was weak,” he said during the closing plenary session of COP27. “Unfortunately, it remains on life support.” Climate advocates also criticized the final agreement for pushing for “low-emission and renewable energy.” While the reference to renewable energy was a welcome new development, the term “low-emission” could be used to justify the expansion of natural gas, which is technically lower emission than coal but is still a major contributor to climate change. “We can’t afford any loopholes that leave room for the expansion of harmful fossil fuels and further destruction, like the dash for fossil gas on the [African] continent by European nations,” said Landry Ninteretse, regional director of the environmental group 350Africa.org, in a statement. The Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan calls for a new, direct fund for loss and damage, but many of the nitty-gritty details about the fund’s governance and structure will be decided by a transitional committee in the coming year. For now, the fund remains an empty bank account. Crucially, the committee will decide which countries will contribute to the fund and which ones will draw from it, major points of contention during negotiations. Developed countries want to expand the donor base to include wealthy developing countries and major polluters. China is a key target, and South Korea, Singapore, and some Gulf countries that have high standards of living are also on the list. The U.S. and other wealthy nations also want to restrict China from being able to receive money from the fund. For its part, China appears willing to contribute, but on a voluntary basis. While countries may be lightyears away from reaching it, the 2015 Paris Agreement at least sets a target of limiting warming to 1.5 degree Celsius. This aim guides other mitigation goals, like the one most countries have adopted to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. But there is no specific global goal for adapting to a changing climate. Another unresolved question from last year was the issue of double counting — a scenario in which both the buyer and seller of carbon credits put the emissions reduction on their books. Double counting is banned under the carbon market established in Glasgow, but it still occurs on the voluntary market when companies buy carbon credits from countries. The COP27 agreement creates a new, second-tier market where companies can buy credits as “mitigation contributions,” implying — but not requiring — that if they’re counted by the country where the project is located, they shouldn’t also be claimed by the corporate funder.
COP27 deal does little to avert future climate change disasters - The Washington Post -The final decision of the U.N. Climate Change Conference on Sunday yielded a breakthrough in addressing the hazards already ravaging the planet but made little progress on emissions-cutting measures that could avert even worse disasters to come.It was a double-edged outcome to negotiations that at times seemed on the brink of failure, as many wealthy nations argued for deeper, faster climate action and poorer countries said they first needed help dealing with the consequences of warming fueled mostly by the industrialized world. Even as diplomats and activists at the summit, known as COP27, applauded the creation of a fund to support vulnerable countries after disasters, many worried that nations’ reluctance to adopt more ambitious climate plans had left the planet on a dangerous warming path.“Too many parties are not ready to make more progress today in the fight against the climate crisis,” European Union climate chief Frans Timmermans told weary negotiators Sunday morning. “What we have in front of us is not enough of a step forward for people and planet.”The equivocal agreement, reached after a year of record-setting climate disasters and weeks of fraught negotiations in Egypt, underscores the challenge of getting the whole world to agree on rapid climate action when many powerful countries and organizations remain invested in the current energy system. Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project, said it’s inevitable the world will surpass what scientists consider a safe warming threshold. The only questions are by how much, and how many people will suffer as a result.A study published midway through the COP27 negotiations found that few nations have followed through on a requirement from last year’s conference to boost their emissions-cutting pledges, and the world is on the precipice of burning more carbon than it can afford — pushing the planet over a threshold that scientists say will lead to the collapse of ecosystems, escalating extreme weather and widespread hunger and disease.Jackson blamed entrenched interests, as well as shortsighted political leaders and general human apathy, for delaying action toward the most ambitious goal set in Paris in 2015 of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.“It isn’t just COP27, it’s the lack of action at all the other COPs since the Paris accord,” he said. “We’ve been bleeding for years now.” This year’s conference unfolded amid inauspicious circumstances. The ongoing effects of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had triggered a global economic crisis and sent governments scrambling to provide their citizens with energy and food. The world’s two biggest emitters — the United States and China — weren’t talking to one another.Developed nations still hadn’t delivered financial support for developing countries that was already several years overdue, undermining the collective trust needed to secure a meaningful agreement.Civil society activists, who typically serve as the moral compass of U.N. negotiations, also faced unprecedented constraints on their ability to protest because of the host country’s tight restrictions on public gatherings. News conferences highlighting the link between human rights and the climate crisis were disrupted by shouting matches over Egypt’s jailing of political prisoners.Meanwhile, multiple world leaders, including the conference’s Egyptian hosts, used the event to promote their fossil fuel supplies and forge new energy agreements. COP27 President Sameh Shoukry called natural gas “a transitional source of energy” that could ease the switch from fossil fuels to renewables.A private meeting of African leaders during the conference showed how hard it is for developing nations to forgo exploiting lucrative fossil fuel reserves, especially when they have trouble attracting investors for other, more sustainable projects.
COP27 summit does nothing to address climate change - This year’s United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) has ended, and the world’s major capitalist powers, banks and corporations that gathered in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt have again pledged to do essentially nothing to stop and reverse the ongoing climate crisis. The agreement drafted by the delegates has many similarities to the one made in Glasgow, Scotland last year. The most pressing need—to end the use of fossil fuels and stop the emission of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into Earth’s atmosphere—was relegated to a call for a limited reduction of coal power plants and to “phase-out … inefficient fossil fuel subsidies,” a phrase which can be interpreted in many ways and is thus virtually meaningless. Even those who have previously played major roles in crafting nonbinding agreements were forced to comment negatively on what was produced at COP27. Laurence Tubiana, who was one of the main architects of the lauded but ultimately toothless 2015 Paris Accords noted, “The influence of the fossil fuel industry was found across the board.” He continued, “The Egyptian presidency has produced a text that clearly protects oil and gas petro-states and the fossil fuel industry.” One can only imagine what next year’s COP28 will yield, being held in the United Arab Emirates, which has an estimated 10 percent of the world’s oil reserves, 20 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves and where oil exports make up 30 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. Even the call to limit global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels was almost abandoned. The limit is widely regarded by climate scientists as the “point of no return” in regards to the impact of climate change, beyond which the damage caused by extreme weather, rising oceans, the destruction of habitats and the myriad of other dangers becomes qualitatively harder to reverse. The call was kept only as a result of what CNN was forced to admit was a “carefully choreographed news conference” by officials from the European Union that threatened to walk out. The press conference was led by EU Climate Chief Frans Timmermans, who claimed, “We do not want 1.5 Celsius to die here and today. That to us is completely unacceptable.” In reality, the European powers have nothing to offer the working class. The conference was wholly overshadowed by the war in Ukraine between the US and NATO on one side and Russia on the other. The United States has been pushing for Europe, particularly Germany, to shift away from its reliance on Russian natural gas in recent years, most openly in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump sanctioned Germany for not shutting down the Russia-Germany natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 2. This pressure was amplified by the bombing of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in September. The criminal destruction of tens of billions of dollars in infrastructure has forced Europe to become more reliant on US natural gas imports. Documents from the Department of Energy and US natural gas lobbyists show that the US government and corporations were already fast-tracking the infrastructure needed to increase liquefied natural gas exports to the EU and had been since at least the start of the Ukraine war in February. Germany, for its part, has turned to revitalizing its coal industry. In April, for example, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Green Party authorized the destruction of the town of Lützerath and the relocation of its inhabitants to allow the company RWE to mine 280 million tons of coal. Habeck justified this by claiming, “Putin’s war of aggression is forcing us to temporarily make greater use of lignite so that we save gas in electricity generation. This is painful but necessary.” The supposed highlight of COP27 was that a “loss and damage” fund was setup to channel funds primarily from the United States and European Union to poorer countries that have been most impacted already by climate change. It was hailed by Molwyn Joseph, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, as “a win for our entire world,” and a show of “respect” to small nations. The new fund is a token gesture at best. It is limited only to rebuilding after disasters strike and has been carefully crafted to not imply fault against those nations which output the most greenhouse gases, the US being among highest producers of emissions. There is also no clear understanding of how money will be distributed or whether it will even reach those in need.
World still ‘on brink of climate catastrophe’ after Cop27 deal -The world still stands “on the brink of climate catastrophe” after the deal reached at the Cop27 UN climate summit on Sunday, and the biggest economies must make fresh commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions, climate experts and campaigners have warned.The agreement reached in Sharm el-Sheikh early on Sunday morning, after a marathon final negotiating session that ran 40 hours beyond its deadline, was hailed for providing poor countries for the first time with financial assistance known as loss and damage. A fund will be set up by rich governments for the rescue and rebuilding of vulnerable areas stricken by climate disaster, a key demand of developing nations for the last 30 years of climate talks.But the outcome was widely judged a failure on efforts to cut carbon dioxide, after oil-producing countries and high emitters weakened and removed key commitments on greenhouse gases and phasing out fossil fuels.Mary Robinson, chair of the Elders Group of former world leaders, ex-president of Ireland and twice a UN climate envoy, said: “The world remains on the brink of climate catastrophe. Progress made on [cutting emissions] has been too slow. We are on the cusp of a clean energy world, but only if G20 leaders live up to their responsibilities, keep their word and strengthen their will. The onus is on them.”António Guterres, secretary general of the UN, warned: “Our planet is still in the emergency room. We need to drastically reduce emissions now – and this is an issue this Cop did not address. The world still needs a giant leap on climate ambition.”Oil-producing countries had thwarted attempts to strengthen the deal, said Laurence Tubiana, one of the architects of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, now chief executive of the European Climate Foundation. “The influence of the fossil fuel industry was found across the board,” she said. “This Cop has weakened requirements around countries making new and more ambitious commitments [on cutting emissions]. The text [of the deal] makes no mention of phasing out fossil fuels, and scant reference to the 1.5C target.”She blamed the host country, Egypt, for allowing its regional alliances to sway the final decision, a claim hotly denied by the hosts. Next year’s conference of the parties under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop) will take place in Dubai, hosted by the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s biggest oil exporters.Tubiana warned: “The Egyptian presidency produced a text that clearly protects oil and gas petro-states and the fossil fuel industries. This trend cannot continue in the UAE next year.”At the talks, nearly 200 countries agreed that a fund for loss and damage, which would pay out to rescue and rebuild the physical and social infrastructure of countries ravaged by extreme weather events, should be set up within the next year.However, there is no agreement yet on how much money should be paid in, by whom, and on what basis. A key aim for the EU at the talks was to ensure that countries classed as developing in 1992 when the UNFCCC was signed – and thus given no obligations to act on emissions or provide funds to help others – are considered potential donors. These could include China, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, and Russia. Under the final agreement, such countries can contribute on a voluntary basis.
COP27: how the Fossil Fuel Lobby Crowded out Calls for Climate Justice - COP27 has just wrapped up. Despite much excitement over a new fund to address “loss and damage” caused by climate change, there is also anger about perceived backsliding on commitments to lower emissions and phase out fossil fuels.As an academic expert in climate justice who went along this year, hoping to make a difference, I share this anger.“Together for Implementation” was the message as COP27 got underway on November 6 and some 30,000 people descended on the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El Sheik. The UNFCCC strictly regulates who can attend negotiations. Parties (country negotiation teams), the media and observers (NGOs, IGOs and UN special agencies) must all be pre-approved. I went along as an NGO observer, to represent the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment. Observers have access to the main plenaries and ceremonies, the pavilion exhibition spaces and side events. The negotiation rooms, however, are largely off limits. Most of the day is spent listening to speeches, networking and asking questions at side-events. The main role of observers, then, is to apply indirect pressure on negotiators, report on what is happening and network. Meaningful impact on and participation in negotiations seems out of reach for many of the passionate people I met.It has long been known that who gets a say in climate change governance is skewed. As someone working on f air decision making as part of a just transition to less carbon-intensive lifestyles and a climate change-adapted society, it is clear that only the most powerful voices are reflected in treaties such as the Paris Agreement. At last year’s COP26, men spoke 74% of the time, indigenous communities faced language barriers and racism and those who could not obtain visas were excluded entirely.Despite being advertised as “Africa’s COP”, COP27 further hampered inclusion. The run up was dogged by accusations of inflated hotel prices and concerns over surveillance, and warnings about Egypt’s brutal police state. The right to protest was limited, with campaigners complaining of intimidation and censorship. In terms of numbers, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) registered the largest party delegation with more than 1,000 people. The oil and gas-rich nation of just 9 million people had a delegation almost twice the size of the next biggest, Brazil. More troublingly, the oil and gas lobby representatives were registered in the national delegations of 29 different countries and were larger than any single national delegation (outside of the UAE). According to one NGO, at least 636 of those attending COP27 were lobbyists for the fossil-fuel industry.Despite the promise that COP27 would foreground African interests, the fossil lobby outnumbers any delegation from Africa. These numbers give a sense of who has power and say at these negotiations, and who does not. The main outcomes of COP27 are a good illustration of the power dynamics at play. There is some good news on loss and damage, which was added to the agenda at the last moment. Nearly 200 countries agreed that a fund for loss and damage, which would pay out to rescue and rebuild the physical and social infrastructure of countries ravaged by extreme weather events, should be set up within the next year. However, there is no agreement yet on how much money should be paid in, by whom, and on what basis.Much more worryingly, there had been a push to phase out all fossil fuels by countries including some of the biggest producers: the EU, Australia, India, Canada, the US and Norway. However, with China, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Iran pushing back, several commitments made at COP26 in Glasgow were dropped, including a target for global emissions to peak by 2025. The outcome was widely judged a failure on efforts to cut emissions: the final agreed text from the summit makes no mention of phasing out fossil fuels and scant reference to the 1.5℃ target.
Fossil-fuel companies had more people at the UN's climate summit than the 10 countries most affected by climate change did combined – World leaders hashing out critical climate issues at the United Nations' summit in Egypt had company: 636 fossil-fuel lobbyists are among the attendees.The lobbyists' presence worries experts, because their business interests often stand in opposition to the summit's goal of reducing climate change-causing greenhouse gases, while still providing the world with power. The fossil fuel industry had more representatives at the conference than any single nation, except the United Arab Emirates, according to a report from Global Witness, and more representatives than the sum of the 10 countries most affected by climate change.Identifying how much power these lobbyists had in negotiations is tricky. One-third of the fossil fuel lobbyists Global Witness identified were registered as part of national delegations, according to Dominic Kavakeb, a spokesperson for Global Witness. That makes it tough to tell whose interests they support.
Energy & Environment — A closer look at the ‘loss and damage’ fund - A newly agreed “loss and damage” fund in which developed countries would pay for climate damages suffered by vulnerable developing counterparts lacks both details and actual funding, raising question about whether it’s merely a symbolic breakthrough.Developing nations responsible for the smallest amounts of climate pollution for years have called for such a fund, which has been resisted by the United States and other wealthy countries.That changed over the weekend when nearly 200 countries agreed to launch a new fund at the United Nations climate change conference (COP27) in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The agreement states that the fund will help developing countries respond to “economic and non-economic loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events.” The deal provides no money, and no organizational structure, saying such details will be worked out in the coming months. It creates a “transitional committee” made up of representatives from 24 countries who will be tasked with finding funding sources and setting up the fund’s structure and governance. “A loss and damage fund has been established and that’s important on its own, but it’s an empty vessel,” Morgan Bazilian, a public policy professor at the Colorado School of Mines, told The Hill. Despite such skepticism, some advocates voiced optimism, arguing that getting to this point represents major progress after years of stalemate. “There was just a tremendous breakthrough this time of getting the United States and other traditional blockers to stop blocking,” said Jean Su, the energy justice program director at the Center for Biological Diversity. She acknowledged that there are still “big questions,” including “whether finance will actually get delivered,” but said that ultimately it gave “vulnerable communities around the world a glimmer of real hope.” “The UNFCCC has not shown itself to be terribly effective, building up and implementing those kinds of buckets,” said Bazilian, who previously served as an energy specialist at the World Bank. Wealthy countries failed to live up to a $100 billion promise made in 2009 at another UNFCCC summit. That pledge involved providing that sum annually to less wealthy nations by 2020. In the past, several European countries have said they’d be willing to contribute to loss and damage more broadly. China has also indicated some willingness to contribute. “We need to ensure that the countries and corporations most responsible for the climate crisis make the biggest contribution,” Yeb Saño, executive director of Greenpeace Southeast Asia,said in a statement. Saño said funding is needed not only for loss and damage, but for adaptation and mitigation efforts. He also urged wealthy countries to “make good on the existing $100 billion per year pledge.” U.S. money for the fund seems doubtful given the divided government delivered by the midterms. A House now controlled by the GOP would need to appropriate money for the fund along with a Senate that Democrats just narrowly control. “Insanity. This wasn’t even on my list of the top 1 million things the United States should do with money we don’t have,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said in a written statement that his office shared with The Hill when asked for his thoughts on the deal. “Congress did not give any authority nor appropriations for this global climate reparations fund,” he added. “The facts are America is a leader in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Why are we apologizing for our excellence when we can be exporting our technology and making a tangible difference?” The fund will face other challenges if money materializes, including how to agree on which countries should receive funds and how to distribute money. The agreement is ambiguous, saying that it would seek to help countries that are “particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change” without offering a definition. Brandon Wu, director of policy and campaigns at antipoverty organization ActionAid USA, said such “flexibility” may be a good thing, since “there are vulnerable people everywhere” in developing nations. The agreement also specifically contains a provision to “invite” global financial institutions to consider contributing to such funding arrangements. That provision specifically mentions both the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund as potential contributors. In response to the invitation, a World Bank spokesperson said that “there was a broad recognition of the need to increase financing for global public goods, especially climate action,” at the group’s recent October meetings but did not directly address the loss and damage fund. The International Monetary Fund did not respond to a request for comment.
The big takeaway from Cop27? These climate conferences just aren’t working --In the end, the recent shenanigans at the Cop27 meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh at least ended up making modest progress on loss and damage: high-emissions nations agreeing to pay those countries bearing the brunt of climate mayhem that they had little to do with bringing about.But, yet again, there was no commitment to cutting the emissions accelerating this crisis, without which this agreement is nothing more – as one delegatecommented – than a “down-payment on disaster”. No seasoned observers are of the opinion that the world is any nearer tackling the climate emergency. Indeed, the real legacy of Cop27 could well be exposing the climate summit for what it has become, a bloated travelling circus that sets up once a year, and from which little but words ever emerge.It really does beggar belief, that in the course of 27 Cops, there has never been a formal agreement to reduce the world’s fossil fuel use. Not only has the elephant been in the room all this time, but over the last quarter of a century it has taken on gargantuan proportions – and still its presence goes unheeded. It is no surprise, then, that from Cop1 in Berlin in 1995, to Egypt this year, emissions have continued – barring a small downward blip at the height of the pandemic – to head remorselessly upwards.Expectations were never especially high over the course of the 12 months since Glasgow’s Cop26. Even so, COP27 has to be a new low – held in a country cowed by a malicious dictatorship, the world’s biggest plastic polluter on board as a sponsor, and hosting more than 600 fossil fuel representatives and many others who are there to prevent, rather than promote progress and action. Some old hands have labelled it the worst COP ever, and I doubt many would argue.I would never question the sincerity of those working within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), established way back in 1992, nor those embedded in the Cop climate apparatus, who I know are desperate to find a solution to our predicament. I do, however, seriously wonder whether an annual extravaganza in the full glare of the world’s media is the way to do this. In all honesty, it is becoming increasingly difficult to view these events as anything other than photo opportunities for presidents and prime minsters who turn up simply to make the world think they care. The reality is that, in most cases, they have no inkling of how bad climate breakdown is set to be and little interest in finding out. In this respect, Sunak’s 24-hour flit to the Red Sea resort, to see and be seen, says it all.And there is another huge and growing problem too. The all-encompassing nature of the annual Cop climate conference provides one enormous open goal for fossil fuel representatives; an unprecedented opportunity to kettle ministers and heads of state from every corner of the planet, but particularly the majority world, to browbeat them into handing over their untouched fossil fuel reserves for exploitation. At Cop27, the sharks were circling around African nations, desperate to persuade them of the urgent need for a “dash for gas” and looking for a very large piece of the action.In retrospect, it does seem that the whole idea of annual climate carnivals was probably not the best means of promoting serious action on global heating, but their hijacking by the fossil fuel sector, and failure, year on year, to do the job they were set up to do, surely means that Cop is no longer fit for purpose. The whole apparatus is simply too moribund to come up with any measures effective enough, and with sufficient clout, to bring about the changes needed to avoid climate chaos.
US receives stinging criticism at Cop27 despite China’s growing emissions - The US, fresh from reversing its 30 years of opposition to a “loss and damage” fund for poorer countries suffering the worst impacts of the climate crisis, has signaled that its longstanding image as global climate villain should now be pinned on a new culprit: China.Following years of tumult in which the US refused to provide anything resembling compensation for climate damages, followed by Donald Trump’s removal of the US from the Paris climate agreement, there was a profound shift at the Cop27 UN talks in Egypt, with Joe Biden’s administration agreeing to the new loss and damage fund.The US also backed language in the new agreement, which finally concluded in the early hours of Sunday morning after an often fraught period of negotiations between governments, that would demand the phase-out of all unabated fossil fuels, only to be thwarted by major oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. Despite these stances, the US continued to be the leading target of ire from climate activists who blame it for obstruction and for failing to reckon with its role as history’s largest ever emitter of planet-heating gases. On Friday, the US was given the unwanted title of “colossal fossil” by climate groups for supposedly failing to push through the loss and damage assistance at Cop27. The US delegation chafed at this image, with John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, using his closing remarks to shift the focus on to China, now the world’s largest emitter. Kerry said that “all nations have a stake in the choices China makes in this critical decade. The United States and China should be able to accelerate progress together, not only for our sake, but for future generations – and we are all hopeful that China will live up to its global responsibility.” Kerry and his team were by the end of the talks “sick” of shouldering the blame, according to Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate adviser, now with the Progressive Policy Institute in Washington DC. “Somehow the US became the villain despite aggressive action on emissions, meanwhile Russia and China’s emissions are growing like crazy and yet they are not in the crosshairs of activists, it’s confusing,” he said. “I mean it’s absurd. If we don’t get hold of China’s emissions the climate will spin out of control.” Nate Hultman, who was part of Kerry’s negotiating team for Cop26 last year, said the US entered the climate talks “with its head held high” after Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act over the summer, which included more than $370bn (£313bn) in spending to advance renewable energy and electric cars. “The US is acting as one of the key leaders in getting the climate outcome the world wants, I just reject this caricature of the US being obstructionist,” he said. The US and China, the world’s two largest emitters, had been in a sort of diplomatic deep freeze on climate issues following the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, to Taiwan in August. Cop27 saw the beginnings of a thaw in this relationship, with the overlapping G20 summit resulting in Biden resuming dialogue with Xi Jinping. China’s emissions are now nearly three times as large as America’s and while it has become the pre-eminent renewable energy superpower, it is ramping up its use of coal at a rate that scientists say will push the world disastrously beyond 1.5C in global heating. “Our planet is still in the emergency room,” said António Guterres, secretary general of the UN, on the lack of progress in cutting emissions in the Cop27 deal. “We need to drastically reduce emissions now and this is an issue this Cop did not address. The world still needs a giant leap on climate ambition.” China, and many climate activists, point to America’s long history of being the lead carbon polluter and its failure to honor past commitments on climate finance to developing countries strafed by heatwaves, droughts, floods and other impacts. Biden has promised $11bn (£9bn) for this effort, although this spending will probably be blocked by the House of Representatives when it falls under Republican control in January, barring a last-gasp funding deal before Christmas. “A quarter of the CO2 in our atmosphere is red, white and blue,” said Ed Markey, a Democratic senator who visited the Cop27 summit. “The United States has a moral and planetary responsibility to partner, not prohibit, on equitable climate finance. We cannot leave the countries least responsible for the climate crisis to be sacrifice zones and bear this horrific burden alone.”
Climate protesters at Berlin airport briefly halt traffic after gluing themselves to runway - Climate protesters briefly halted air traffic at a Berlin airport on Thursday after some of them glued themselves to the runway. The activists, from a group called Letzte Generation, brought air traffic at Berlin Brandenburg Airport to a standstill in protest of flight-related emissions. “The plane is not a means of transport for ordinary people,” Letzte Generation said in a statement. “Most people — about 80 percent of the world’s population — have never flown in their lives. One affluent percent of the population is responsible for around half of flight-related greenhouse gas emissions.” Letzte Generation said its protesters informed police of their plans shortly before entering the airport. The airport had resumed flight operations on its runways as of Thursday evening local time but warned that there would still be delays and urged patience. Letzte Generation has previously engaged in similar stunts. Two of the group’s protesters last month threw mashed potatoes at a Claude Monet painting at the Museum Barberini in Germany in an effort to call attention to the climate crisis.
EPA floats sharply increased social cost of carbon - EPA has proposed a new estimate for the social cost of carbon emissions, nearly quadrupling an interim figure that has already drawn legal challenges from a host of Republican-led states. The metric puts a price tag on the damages created by each metric ton of greenhouse gas emissions. Agencies can then use it as part of their analyses of the costs and benefits of more stringent climate regulation on sources ranging from power plants and automobiles to the oil and gas sector. The Biden administration has been using the Interagency Working Group’s interim value of $51 per metric ton of CO2. But earlier this month, EPA quietly proposed increasing that number to $190. “This is a whole new process,” said Hana Vizcarra, a senior attorney at Earthjustice. “It’s definitely a rethinking of how they have done it before.” EPA made the new metric public before a highly anticipated proposal from the IWG, which includes the agency. The working group, which originally planned to release its proposal in April, streamlines the approach to calculating the metric across the federal government. The administration’s use of the IWG’s interim social cost of greenhouse gases has been challenged in parallel lawsuits led by Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, both Republicans. It’s unclear whether the figures released by EPA reflect changes the working group is also considering. In the supplemental document, EPA noted that it was participating in the working group’s work and that the process is ongoing.
Morgan commissioners sign resolution against use of eminent domain for pipeline — Morgan County commissioners have unanimously approved a resolution against eminent domain being used to acquire any property for a proposed carbon dioxide pipeline.The resolution was filed regarding Texas-based Navigator CO2 Ventures, which is planning to build Heartland Greenway pipeline through multiple Midwestern states, including 13 Illinois counties. The pipeline would be used to transport carbon dioxide to a location in central Illinois for sequestration deep into the ground.The pipeline would go through northern Morgan County, according to preliminary plans.Commissioners voted on the resolution at the Nov. 7 board meeting. Commission Vice Chairman Ginny Fanning said it will go to the Illinois Commerce Commission, from which Navigator CO2 Ventures is seeking a permit to build the Heartland Greenway."There are different things people are bringing up as far as concerns regarding the pipeline and this is the one that has come to the surface with the board and something that we feel strongly about, that eminent domain should not come into practice with the pipeline," she said.
Hochul signs partial cryptocurrency mining ban into New York law - — New York will instate a two-year moratorium on new fossil fuel-powered cryptocurrency mining operations as the state works to balance its economic development and climate goals. Gov. Kathy Hochul on Tuesday signed the controversial measure into law that would create the first-in-the-nation temporary pause on new permits for fossil fuel power plants that house proof-of-work cryptocurrency mining, which is a process used in the transaction of digital money. Hochul, who had punted on the issue for months after the Legislature passed the bill in June, was elected to a full term Nov. 8. Upstate New York has become attractive to companies that “mine” digital currencies, including Bitcoin, because of the availability of former power plants and manufacturing sites with unused electrical infrastructure. But Hochul said that the moratorium is an important step to avoid increased emissions from the industry restarting old power plants as she guides the state toward ambitious climate goals. “As the first governor from upstate New York in nearly a century, I recognize the importance of creating economic opportunity in communities that have been left behind,” the Democratic governor from Buffalo said in the memo accompanying her approval. “I am signing this legislation into law to build on New York’s nation-leading Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, the most aggressive climate and clean energy law in the nation, while also continuing our steadfast efforts to support economic development and job creation in upstate New York.” The new law will also trigger a study by state Department of Environmental Conservation to study the impacts of the cryptocurrency mining industry on the environment. The measure was hotly debated in the halls of the state Capitol this year, with environmental groups pushing lawmakers and Hochul to support the bill and the industry urging Hochul to reject it.
New York OKs major transmission line for Eversource and Ørsted’s Sunrise offshore wind project - New York has advanced four new wind farm projects upstate as well as a transmission line that will deliver energy to the state’s grid from a proposed offshore wind farm, which will add a total of nearly 1.5 GW and almost 1 GW in offshore power alone as the state aims for a 2035 goal of 9 GW in that sector. On Thursday, the New York state Public Service Commission said in a release that it had approved compliance filings for four “major” wind farms upstate that represent a total of 573.6 MW, adding that this approval was one of the last remaining steps before the farms can become operational.Gov. Kathy Hochul, D, announced in a same-day release that the commission had also approved a 25-mile transmission line that would deliver electricity from a proposed offshore wind farm to an existing substation in Suffolk County.The 924-MW proposed farm, the Sunrise Wind Project, would be located in the New York Bight. The release states that construction should begin in 2023 and developers expect that it “will be fully operational by 2025.”“The proposed Sunrise Wind farm located in federal waters is the largest offshore wind farm yet that would be connected to New York's electric grid,” Hochul said in the release.She added that the project has “the potential capacity to power nearly 600,000 homes” and will be developed by Eversource along with the Danish power company Ørsted, which will receive support from ConEd and the New York Power Authority in delivering this energy to the state’s grid.Sunrise Wind was selected by New York during its 2018 solicitation, and the area’s leaser, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, completed scoping on the potential impacts of the project in 2021, a few months after the Biden administration announced its goal to deploy 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030.New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Act established a 2030 deadline for the state to reach 70 percent clean energy generation and a 2035 deadline for reaching 9 GW of offshore wind.The Public Service Commission’s release notes that the four new upstate wind farms are among 18 renewable energy projects that the state’s Board on Electric Generation Siting and the Environment has approved so far, with those projects in total expected to deliver more than 2,510 MWIn a separate development, BOEM announced Wednesday that it has identified eight potential new offshore wind energy areas in the Central Atlantic that collectively encompass 1.7 million acres off the shores of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. BOEM will take comments on this finding through Dec. 16.
Consumers Energy seeks “crippling” wind farm tax clawbacks from Tuscola County schools — Consumers Energy is suing more than a hundred schools, townships, and social service groups in Tuscola County, seeking about $8 million in tax clawbacks. More than a decade ago, the districts and other groups agreed to allow Consumers Energy, DTE Energy, and standalone wind energy companies like Next Energy to build wind farms in the region — in return for a specified amount of tax revenue over a 20 or 30 year time period. But then a state agency, the Michigan Tax Tribunal, unexpectedly changed the depreciation schedule for the wind turbines. Based on the new schedule, Consumers Energy sued the groups to whom it had paid taxes, demanding a significant amount of the revenue back. Josh Hahn is head of Unionville-Sebewing Area Schools. He said Consumers is suing his district for nearly $1.2 million dollars. "We would become a deficit district," he said. "Which means the state would take us over, we would have to cut staff and programs, we would lose students. It would severely cripple our district." Hahn said Consumers Energy has not seemed willing to come to the table, unlike DTE Energy, which recently settled its lawsuits in the county for much smaller tax clawbacks. He estimates Unionville-Sebewing Area Schools will pay only about 4% of what DTE originally sought. He said it appears that Consumers Energy can't be trusted to keep its word. "Right now, Consumers is trying to get solar farms in our area, and if this doesn't get resolved, I will share with as many farmers and taxpayers as I know to be very careful of dealing with Consumers Energy," Hahn said. Diane Foster is Superintendent of Akron-Fairgrove Schools. She said Consumers Energy is demanding $377,456 from her district. "We made huge financial decisions based on (turbine) values that were determined prior to us making an appeal to our community," she said. "I don't want our community to think we did something in bad faith. We're not a bank. We're just here to educate kids. And all of a sudden, wow, $8 million is not that much to that company, but it's a whole mountain to those of us that might have to pay pieces of that back."
DTE Energy donates to nearly every Michigan lawmaker as it seeks rate hike - As DTE Energy pushes for an 8.8% rate hike, the utility giant and its executives and lobbyists have donated to the campaigns of nearly every state legislator in Michigan. Of the state’s 148 senators and representatives, 138 have received campaign contributions tied to DTE Energy, totaling more than $1 million, according to the Energy and Policy Institute, a fossil fuel industry watchdog group. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has also received $235,900 from DTE Energy and its executives and lobbyists, dating back to when she was a state lawmaker. In a July fundraising blitz, Whitmer received nearly $40,000 from DTE executives. Whitmer appoints the three members of the Michigan Public Service Commission, which will decide on the company’s proposed 8.8% rate hike for electricity and gas in November. The commission approved four rate hikes since 2015. The donations come at a time when environmental justice activists, consumer groups, and clean energy advocates are calling out DTE Energy for its high rates, chronic power outages, and reliance on fossil fuels.
Report: California to Ban Older Diesel Trucks at Ports by 2025; Electric Truck Mandate by 2035 - The State of California is continuing its aggressive policies pushing consumers and companies to adopt electric vehicles by proposing to force shipping companies to use electric trucks at the state’s beleaguered port facilities.Despite a supply-chain crisis that resulted in record backlogs at Los Angeles and Long Beach ports last year — partly contributing to New York overtaking them — the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is pressing on.The Wall Street Journal reports the state will impose an electric truck mandate, despite the lack of charging infrastructure and the space to build it, to create a market for electric trucks en route to a broader transition:The California Air Resources Board is proposing phasing out older big rigs operating in the busy corridors shuttling shipping containers between ports, rail yards and warehouses and require that all new vehicles be powered by clean fuels starting in 2024. From 2025, the state would bar trucks powered by internal combustion engines that have more than 800,000 miles on them from operating at ports and rail yards.The goal is to push more than 30,000 heavily-polluting trucks to clean energy by 2035. Trucking industry officials say there is a big gap between the target and the charging infrastructure that barely exists today and would take years to build.“Nobody is saying we don’t want to move to advanced technology,” said Matt Schrap, chief executive of the Harbor Trucking Association, an advocacy group that represents thousands of the state’s port truckers. Truckers can’t meet the deadline, he said, “because there’s no charging.”The year 2035 is familiar because that is also the deadline by which Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and CARB have declared that the state will no longer allow the sale of most gas-powered passenger vehicles, requiring drivers to purchase electric vehicles. The state’s power grid currently lacks the capacity for a full shift to an electric fleet, so regulators are scrambling to plan the charging infrastructure and electricity transmission facilities required.
Indonesia faces difficult task to create OPEC-like group for nickel -Indonesia’s proposal to create an organisation to control nickel output and prices along the lines of OPEC would be an uphill struggle, industry analysts say, as production is controlled by privately-owned companies and not governments. The proposal to “coordinate and integrate nickel policy” in the way that OPEC does, to ensure nickel producing countries optimise their returns, was made this week by Indonesia’s investment minister in talks with Canada. However, oil companies in many Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) such as Saudi Arabia are owned by the government while in countries such as Nigeria contracts stipulate that the government can tell private companies to adjust production. “In OPEC, oil production is essentially a ‘country’-run business…production can be increased or decreased by a relatively small group to influence the global situation,” said Wood Mackenzie analyst Andrew Mitchell. “In nickel its more disparate – although Indonesia obviously controls a lot of output, there are large producers elsewhere.” Canada produced 130,000 tonnes of nickel in 2021, according to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). It is “very unlikely” to participate in any OPEC-like group, a Canadian source familiar with the discussions said on Thursday. Indonesia is expected to produce between 1.25 and 1.5 million tonnes of nickel this year, more than 40% of world mined production estimated at between 3 million to 3.2 million tonnes. Most of the nickel produced in Indonesia is controlled by Chinese companies such as Tsingshan Holding Group, CNGR Advanced Material and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt. “Important to note is that China retains leverage over Indonesia with regards to nickel. China is not just a key consumer of Indonesian nickel,” said Citi analyst Tom Mulqueen. “China-linked companies also have a dominant ownership stake in Indonesia’s nickel industry, representing an important source of investment and expertise for its development.” Other top nickel producing countries include the Philippines accounting for 370,000 tonnes last year and Russia for 250,000 tonnes, according to USGS.
Coal emissions on pace for record-setting 2022 - Global emissions associated with coal burning are on track to hit a new record in 2022, underscoring the challenge of phasing out the world’s most carbon-intensive fuel. Coal generation needs to fall precipitously for the planet to have a chance at reaching net-zero emissions. But 2022 has seen rising coal generation in Europe and India, as both regions struggled with the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Global coal generation likely would be even higher if not for an economic lull in China, the world’s largest coal market. The United States is the sole major economy to continue to see sharp declines in coal use. The figures highlight a difficult truth for the world’s climate efforts: While the fuel’s decline in the United States and Europe over the last decade has generated a tidal wave of headlines, global coal use has remained largely flat due to a growing fleet of coal plants in Asia. “Global coal use and emissions have essentially plateaued at a high level, with no definitive signs of an imminent reduction,” the International Energy Agency concluded in a report released this month. Climbing coal use in 2022, the agency added, is “a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero — especially the narrow but achievable goal of doing so by 2050.” Coal is the leading source of carbon dioxide emissions globally. In 2022, coal is on track to produce 15.1 billion metric tons of CO2, compared with 12.1 billion tons for oil and 7.9 billion tons for natural gas, according to the Global Carbon Project, an academic initiative. The previous record for coal emissions of slightly more than 15 billion tons was set in 2014. That has made the fuel a target of international climate efforts. Nearly 200 countries agreed to phase out coal at global climate talks in Scotland. Those efforts were always going to be difficult. Global coal capacity has doubled in the last two decades, with the majority of new plants built in Asia, according to IEA. Today, the average age of a coal plant in China is 13 years, while the average coal facility in Vietnam is 8 years old. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made the task more difficult. European coal generation was up 8 percent through September compared to the same time last year, according to Ember, a clean-energy think tank. The spike represented a reversal from the steady declines in coal use Europe has posted over the last decade, and came as the continent rushed to replace gas shipments from Russia. Europe also has looked to liquefied natural gas to fill that gap, pushing up LNG prices globally. The impact has been felt in nations such as India, where high gas prices forced the world’s second largest coal burner to double down on the fuel. Indian coal generation is up 9 percent through September, according to Ember. India’s coal binge has even created an opportunity for U.S. coal miners. Pennsylvania-based Consol Energy Inc. told investors it was bullish on exports to India, where the company’s coal is being burned in the industrial sector. “There’s still strong demand coming out of India,” Bob Braithwaite, a Consol executive, told financial analysts in a recent earnings call. “I still think that long-term that is certainly where the majority of our exports will end up going.” Even so, global coal use this year could have risen even more had China — which accounts for 55 percent of the world market — not encountered a slowdown in its construction and real estate sectors. Electricity demand has been relatively weak as a result, though coal generation did climb in recent months to help offset a fall in hydro output stemming from a historic drought, said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. What happens next in China will determine the trajectory of the coal industry globally. China has 196 gigawatts of coal capacity in various stages of development — nearly as much as remains in the United States today.
Report from environmental groups accuses power industry of failing to clean up coal ash dumps — Electric utilities are gradually phasing out coal-burning power plants in Michigan. But environmental groups are warning that some of those power plants are leaving behind a poisonous legacy.Some municipal coal-burning power plants have been closed and even demolished. Consumers Energy plans to stop using coal by 2025. And just last week DTE Energy proposed a plan that would see the utility shutting down its last coal-burning plant by 2035.“That's absolutely wonderful for the environment. It'll end the burning of coal and the emission of global warming gases, but that does nothing to correct the contamination that has already occurred on site,” said Lisa Evans, senior attorney with the environmental group Earthjustice, during an online news conference.She’s a co-author of a report titled Poisonous Cover-up: The Widespread Failure of the Power Industry to Clean Up Coal Ash Dumps. The report states that the vast majority of power companies have failed to follow anEnvironmental Protection Agency rule put in place in 2015.Abel Russ, senior attorney at the Environmental Integrity Project and co-author of the report, explained that coal ash is what’s left over after burning coal, and it’s often stored at the power plant which is typically built right next to a body of water. “The stuff is full of toxic chemicals. There are at least six neurotoxins in coal ash, like lithium. There are five or six known or suspected carcinogens, things like arsenic. And there are a bunch of pollutants that are toxic to aquatic life as well. And this stuff frequently migrates into streams and lakes.”The report ranks 292 power plants by the severity of the coal ash pollution. Thirteen of the sites listed are in Michigan. (See more from the USEPA here.)One Michigan site was ranked as the 23rd worst in the nation. The City of Grand Haven’s J.B. Sims municipal power plant site was built on an island in the Grand River near Lake Michigan. Chemicals found in the coal ash there, according to the report, include arsenic at 12 times higher than drinking-water standards, boron at 75 times higher, and lithium at 50 times higher.
Biden grants PG&E $1.1 billion to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open - The Biden administration on Monday said it's providing Pacific Gas & Electric Co. with a $1.1 billion grant to help the company prevent the closure of Diablo Canyon, California's last nuclear power plant. Diablo Canyon was originally scheduled to be decommissioned in two phases in 2024 and 2025, but state lawmakers in September voted to keep it open for five more years. PG&E applied for funding in the Department of Energy's initial phase of the $6 billion Civil Nuclear Credit program aimed to keep U.S. nuclear power reactors open. The conditional funding, which comes from the bipartisan infrastructure law passed by Congress last year, creates a path forward for Diablo Canyon to remain open and could allow PG&E to pay back some of the $1.4 billion loan for the plant that lawmakers approved. Diablo Canyon is California's single largest source of power, providing 8.6% of the state's total electricity and 17% of its zero-carbon electricity. It has helped the state grapple with power shortages as temperatures in California continue to rise and heat waves grow more intense with climate change. "This is a critical step toward ensuring that our domestic nuclear fleet will continue providing reliable and affordable power to Americans as the nation's largest source of clean electricity," Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement. However, critics of Diablo Canyon have pointed out that the plant, which is located next to the Pacific Ocean in San Luis Obispo County, is vulnerable to earthquakes and that there is no permanent waste disposal solution. Final terms of the grant are subject to negotiation and finalization, the Energy Department said, but the funding is designed to cover PG&E's anticipated losses from keeping Diablo Canyon open. Not every plant that applied to the Energy Department's program is receiving funding in this initial phase.
State energy regulator says Palisades denial ‘obviously disappointing,’ but other clean energy routes exist— While the recent denial of funding to reopen the Palisades nuclear power plant handicaps Michigan’s short-term emission-reduction goals, the state’s top energy regulator says new federal laws will create additional clean energy opportunities. Palisades owner Holtec International announced late last week that it was denied funding from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Civil Nuclear Credit Program, a $6 billion fund created to bail out unprofitable nuclear plants to preserve their carbon-free electricity. Holtec acquired the plant from Entergy after it closed in late May with the intention of permanently decommissioning the roughly 800-megawatt (MW) plant along the Lake Michigan shoreline in Van Buren County.In recent months, the creation of the Civil Nuclear Credit Program, as well as in-state funding, opened a potential lifeline for Palisades. However, that door closed on Friday when the DOE, led by former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, denied Holtec’s funding request. A Department of Energy spokesperson declined to disclose the reason for the denial, citing terms in the Civil Nuclear Credit Program.“It’s obviously disappointing, but I think we knew going in that it was a long shot,” Michigan Public Service Commissioner Chairperson Dan Scripps said. “We were asking DOE to support something that had never been done before … and that it was going to take an awful lot to make it happen. I still think it was a chance worth taking and a fight worth fighting.”Scripps was referring to the fact that no U.S. nuclear power plant has been reopened after an owner filed a formal notice — known as a letter of permanent secession of operation — to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that it was being decommissioned, which occurred in the case of Palisades earlier this year.Holtec Spokesperson Patrick O’Brien said this was a key complicating factor as the company examined reopening Palisades. “For all intents and purposes, to restart a plant after (the formal notification) is almost like a brand new relicensing” that would take place at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), O’Brien told MiBiz. “The NRC doesn’t have a process for restarting something that’s sent in that letter. Other plants have restarted, but no one has restarted after sending that letter in.”
ArcelorMittal investing $25 million in nuclear in decarbonization push — ArcelorMittal is investing $25 million in nuclear technology in the United States as it seeks to decarbonize steelmaking.The steelmaker, which has its North American headquarters in Schererville and Global R&D lab in East Chicago, is making the investment in the nuclear innovation company TerraPower. The company has raised $830 million in equity, which is being touted as "the largest private raise among advanced nuclear companies." Bill Gates founded TerraPower in 2008. It develops nuclear technology including the Natrium sodium fast reactor paired with a molten salt energy storage system. The coupling aims to provide clean energy that can be used in power grids along with renewables. The company is now building a Natrium reactor in Wyoming as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program. It will be able to produce as much as 500 MWe during peak demand with an assist from an energy storage system.
DOE awards millions to restart nuclear operations in southern Ohio as contamination concerns continue — Scioto Valley Guardian — The United States Department of Energy has awarded $30 million to produce nuclear fuel at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Piketon. The award comes with accolades from some and grave concerns from others. According to the DOE, the “$30 million cost share during the first year to start up and operate 16 advanced centrifuges in a cascade” at the Piketon facility. The announcement raises concerns over radiation contamination in Pike, Ross, and Scioto counties. DOE projects that more than 40 metric tons of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) — a material needed to develop and deploy advanced reactors in the United States — will be needed before the end of the decade, with additional amounts required each year, to deploy a new fleet of advanced reactors. The cascade demonstration program is intended to address near-term HALEU needs and will be used to support fuel qualification testing and DOE-supported advanced reactor demonstration projects. Sources within the DOE told the Guardian that the award is an “important step in demonstrating the nation’s ability to produce HALEU and sets the stage for larger, commercial-scale production in the U.S.” The program, the DOE said, is part of President Joe Biden’s “goal of having a 100% clean electric grid by 2035.” The plant, which started making nuclear energy in 1954, has been met with health concerns. The plant ceased gaseous enrichment operations in May 2001 after it consolidated operations at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Kentucky. The following year, transfer and shipping operations were also consolidated in Paducah. Since then, the plant has been undergoing “decontamination” and “deconstruction” to the tune of billions of dollars, but the process is concerning to many. In May 2019, Zahn’s Corner Middle School in Pike County was closed after radiation testing of the facility revealed radioactive contamination believed to have come from the nearby plant. At the time, Scioto Valley Local School District Superintendent Wes Hairston, in a letter to the DOE, said, “While the levels are debatable, there is very little question that the presence of these dangerous contaminants are not ’natural’.” Students were moved to another building, and the contaminated school had a fence erected around it. Officials in the small southern Ohio community have been hoping the U.S. government would allot funds to help the district build a new school, but so far, that has not happened. Last month, Congressman Tim Ryan and Senator Joe Manchin visited the former school. Ryan, a Democrat from Youngstown, has pushed for the new construction for more than two years. Homeowners who live around the plant and former school also have serious concerns. Many residents have purchased their own air monitoring devices to test the air; they have reported to local news media throughout the years that their personal nuclear level readings are higher than what the federal government publishes or claims to be true. The residents have long claimed that the federal government is not being transparent about the facility and that numbers are changed to keep work progressing.
AES Ohio charges one-time and monthly ‘opt-out’ fees for those who decline ‘smart meters’ — Dayton electric utility AES Ohio will charge customers who don’t wish to have “smart meters” installed at their homes monthly and one-time fees. Riverside resident Krista Tipton told the Dayton Daily News that when she called an AES Ohio phone number to opt out of installation of a smart meter at her home, a utility representative informed her she was expected to accept a one-time fee of $98.99 as well as an additional $36.47 charge each month. “This is outrageous,” Tipton said. “I wonder how many AES customers know about this.” An AES Ohio spokeswoman confirmed the fees. “The opt-out fees have been approved by the PUCO (the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio),” AES Ohio spokeswoman Mary Ann Kabel said Thursday. “If customers choose not to have a smart meter installed, there is an initial one-time opt-out fee of $98.89 and a reoccurring monthly charge of $36.47.” “The fees are intended to cover the costs associated with maintaining the procedures for reading and billing customers without smart meters,” Kabel also said. “By opting out of the smart meter a customer will not receive many of the smart grid benefits.” AES Ohio hopes the new, digitally connected meters will mean more efficient usage and communication, quicker pinpointing of power outages and faster power restoration when outages happen, using digital technology to quickly re-route distribution around problems. Last year, AES Ohio representatives said they intended to start installing 495,000 of the new meters in area homes before the end of 2021, a step in the unfolding of what utility leaders view as a $267 million transformation of the area’s electric grid, embracing digital technology that is expected to allow two-way communication between the utility and its customers.
Ohio Leads the Way in Responsible Oversight of Natural Gas Operations - Energy In Depth In the midst of a global energy crisis where Ohioans have seen rising gas prices, familiar anti-natural gas activists are petitioning the federal government for increased government oversight of Ohio’s well resources, ignoring the state’s long documented history of responsible management. In a petition led by “Keep it in the Ground” actors such as the Sierra Club and Earthjustice, activists are demanding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revoke Ohio’s Class II injection well program and put the state’s rulemaking authority back in the hands of the federal government. However, the petition is backed by flawed logic that ignores Ohio’s consistent record of best-in-class oversight that has been proven to be even stricter than that of the federal government’s, meaning the petition in question would actually weaken Ohio’s operating standards. Ohio has consistently been recognized for having rules more stringent than those set by the federal government. For example, federal regulations require one well inspection each year and a demonstration of mechanical integrity at least once every five years. In contrast, Ohio has unannounced inspections every 10-12 weeks and continuous mechanical integrity monitoring to ensure proper well functionality. In addition, all new wells in Ohio are required to be continuously monitored and include an automatic shut-off device to terminate operations if the permitted maximum allowable surface injection pressure is exceeded, meaning they can be shut down at a moment’s notice if required.
Shale academy to use grant for beautification - The Utica Shale Academy has gained grant funding which officials plan to use for beautifying Salineville. Instructor Matt Gates, who teaches horticulture, welding and industrial maintenance, obtained a $660 Best Practice Grant through the Jefferson County Educational Service Center and will put the funding to use for his “Park Waterfall Pond” project in the village. The grant will help purchase a pond form, pump, pump filter, waterfall rock and small rocks to construct a pond near the academy site on East Main Street and students will exhibit the skills they’ve learned with hand tools and heavy equipment to install the project. Officials said plans should begin soon. Gates said the pupils will operate a backhoe to dig the hole and place the liner for the pond, plus they will learn the importance of work and values while incorporating teamwork into the project. He said these learned skills will help them be successful throughout their life and career. “The project will benefit 25 students,” Gates added. “I have not applied for or received the Best Practice Grant before. I’m really excited to be chosen for the grant, and this gives us an extra opportunity to do a great project with the students while enhancing the community.” JCESC Superintendent Chuck Kokiko said the grants help support education and engage students in unique learning opportunities.
Monaca - How Shell's New Steam Cracker Is (and Isn't) Impacting Northeast NGL Markets --Shell’s new, multibillion-dollar steam cracker in Monaca, PA — the first of its kind in the Marcellus/Utica shale play — is finally up and running and breathing new life into a small town on the Ohio River. When it’s running flat-out, the cracker will churn out up to 9 million pounds of ethylene a day to supply three adjoining polyethylene units. Shell Polymers Monaca, as the petrochemicals complex is formally known, is a world-scale giant, consuming about 95 Mb/d of ethane, which raises this question: How is the start-up of the region’s only large ethane consumer affecting the broader market? In today’s RBN blog, we provide the answer.In energy-industry circles, it’s often said that you can’t get anything permitted and built in the northeastern U.S. — there are simply too many regulatory and legal hurdles to clear. There are certainly many tried-but-failed projects you could point to as evidence — natural gas takeaway pipelines into New York, New England and New Jersey come to mind, and the long-planned Mountain Valley Pipeline into Virginia remains in limbo. But it’s also true that many energy-related projects do advance to construction and operation. A prime example is the subject of today’s blog, Shell’s ethylene-and-PE complex northwest of Pittsburgh, which the company committed to building in 2016 and which recently came online, very close to Shell’s original schedule (despite some COVID-related setbacks). As we said in our Ain’t Wastin’ Time No More and Only Time Will (Sh)ell blogs six years ago, Shell received strong local support for its Shell Polymers Monaca project in Beaver County (see photo below), as well as substantial financial incentives from the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Under the Keystone State’s Local Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit (which was enacted to bolster Shell’s prospective cracker project), any company that develops an ethane-consuming ethylene plant valued at $1 billion or more and that creates at least 2,500 jobs during the construction phase would be eligible for a tax credit equal to 5 cents/gal (or $2.10/bbl) of ethane purchased and used to produce ethylene. (For perspective, the current price of ethane at Mont Belvieu is 41 cents/gal.) The tax credit, which applies to ethane purchased between January 2017 and December 2042, can be used to reduce Shell’s overall tax liability to the state by up to 20%. Assuming that the cracker remains operational through December 2042 (20 years and two months in total) and consumes an average of 85 Mb/d (close to full capacity, that is), the tax credit’s value would total more than $1.3 billion ($2.10/b x 85,000 b/d x 365 days x 20.167 years). Separately, Shell reached "payments in lieu of taxes” agreements with the local government and school district.
Pennsylvania Fines CNX for Production Fluid Spills, Lengthy Cleanup - The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) said a CNX Resources Corp. affiliate has paid a $200,000 fine for allegedly failing to control and properly dispose of production fluids at shale well sites in the southwestern part of the state. DEP said 1,680 gallons of production fluid breached containment and discharged onto the ground in September 2019 at the company’s RHL 71 and RHL 87 well site in Greene County’s Richhill Township. About three months later, another 30 gallons of fluid breached containment and flowed into a sediment basin during hydraulic fracturing operations at the company’s RHL 4 well pad. In both cases, DEP said CNX postponed removing the contaminated soil until fracturing was completed. CNX postponed remediation at the RHL 71 and RHL 87 sites for nearly 70 days. “Delays like these are unacceptable,” said DEP’s Dan Counahan, southwest district oil and gas manager. “DEP expects, and the regulations require, prompt reporting and cleanup of spills and that operators will take measures to prevent future incidents.” DEP said CNX Gas Co. LLC paid a $125,000 civil penalty for violations at the RHL 71 and RHL 87 site. The company also paid a $75,000 civil penalty for violations at the RHL 4 site. Those penalties went into the state’s well plugging fund.
Water For Dimock? The Latest in the Long Fracking Saga -- The Associated Press is reporting that a Susquehanna County community made famous by flaming tap water and the fight over high-volume hydraulic fracture horizontal drilling for natural gas is about to get a staple most people take for granted.A new water line is reportedly going to be installed to deliver a clean, reliable drinking water supply to Dimock for the first time in 14 years.The AP report says on November 22, a public utility released the first details of a plan to mitigate the damage that a gas driller is charged with causing in the community located about 15 miles south of Binghamton.The allegations of contamination in Dimock drew national notoriety after residents were filmed lighting their tap water on fire in the Emmy Award-winning 2010 documentary “Gasland.” The case has been called one of the most notorious to ever emerge from the U.S. drilling and fracking boom.The AP published a statement from Pennsylvania American Water’s engineering manager, Dan Rickard saying “Pennsylvania American Water is pleased it had the opportunity to partner with the Attorney General’s office to develop a safe drinking water solution for the residents of Dimock, who like all of us, deserve access to clean, safe, reliable, and affordable drinking water.”Dimock residents were briefed on the plan on November 21 at a meeting with Pennsylvania American Water and high-level officials in the state attorney general’s office, which is pursuing criminal charges against Cabot Oil & Gas, one of the country’s biggest drilling companies, blamed for polluting Dimock's aquifer. (Cabot recently merged with a Denver-based company to form Corterra Energy Inc.). The news service report goes on to say that the residents declined comment Monday night as they left the meeting at a high school near Dimock, saying they’d been instructed by a prosecutor not to talk.“Our office remains laser focused on using our limited tools to restore clean drinking water for the residents of Dimock,” Jacklin Rhoads, a spokesperson in the attorney general’s office, said in a statement November 22. “Yesterday, our attorneys along with Pennsylvania American Water updated the impacted residents on the status of the case and the extensive independent research done with one goal — how best to provide clean water to their homes.”Further details of the water line plan, including its cost and whether the driller, Coterra Energy Inc., will bear the financial burden as part of any settlement of the criminal case, were not publicly released Tuesday.Residents of Dimock have used bottled water, bulk water purchased commercially, and even water drawn from creeks and artesian wells, saying they don't trust the water coming from their wells.The state attorney general’s office got involved in June 2020, filing criminal charges against the former Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. after a grand jury investigation found the company had failed to fix its faulty gas wells, which leaked flammable methane into residential water supplies in Dimock and surrounding communities.
New England ‘importing European prices’ in looming gas supply crunch | Financial Times -- A European-style winter energy crunch is looming over New England in the north-east US, even as American natural gas producers export record volumes and a wave of fuel heads across the Atlantic.Utility bosses in the region have called for emergency assistance from Washington to pre-empt a crisis, while lashing out at a century-old law that has cut New England off from some of America’s prolific shale output and left it more dependent on expensive imports.On Friday, a vessel laden with liquefied natural gas will land in Massachusetts — but the federal law preventing foreign vessels sailing between US ports means the gas will come from Trinidad, not the US export plants along the Gulf of Mexico that are shipping record amounts of fuel abroad.“You would think that charity would begin at home . . . that American fuel would go to American ports,” Joe Nolan, chief executive of Eversource Energy, one of New England’s biggest utilities, said in an interview. “We’re going to have to compete just like everybody else — in the global market.”The New England regional grid operator has said it will be able to cope under normal weather conditions this winter, but warned that a prolonged period of particularly cold temperatures could force it to ration electricity supply, potentially through rolling blackouts.Prices for gas to be delivered in Boston this winter have soared to almost $30 per million British thermal units on the Intercontinental Exchange, comparable to current prices in Europe, where utilities are scrambling to find international supplies to replace Russian energy. Gas elsewhere in the US for the same months is trading at about a quarter of that level. Spot prices even plunged below zero in western Texas in recent weeks, as production has climbed to new highs.Plans to pipe more gas to New England from huge shale deposits in nearby Appalachia were scrapped in recent years, while the 1920 Jones Act prevents foreign vessels — such as LNG carriers — from delivering gas superchilled on the Gulf to customers in the north-east.As Gulf terminals export record volumes of gas, Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic senator from Massachusetts, this year urged the administration of Joe Biden to curb LNG exports “to keep prices low for American consumers”.The vessel arriving from Trinidad at the Everett LNG terminal near Boston will be the 11th to land in the region this year, up from nine last year, according to Kpler, a tanker tracker. The price is likely to be close to European levels, said analysts. The terminal owner, Constellation Energy, said the US Coast Guard prohibited it from publicly disclosing information about cargoes arriving into the terminal.Despite the imports, utilities responsible for electricity transmission in the region, including Avangrid and National Grid, have warned of New England’s “tenuous reliability position” as temperatures drop. “On the precipice of the 2022-2023 winter period, New England is facing retail energy supply prices that are approximately twice what they were last winter and, perhaps more concerning, a dangerous fuel security situation should the region experience prolonged cold weather or an unplanned disruption to fuel supplies,” they wrote in a submission to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission last week. The region has been in the vanguard of efforts to decarbonise US energy supply and build up new renewable power generation capacity, and a nascent offshore wind industry is starting to take root. But those developments will take time and analysts say the retirement of nuclear capacity, the blocking of new power transmission lines from Canada and gas pipelines from western Pennsylvania’s shale gasfields, as well as overly rosy assumptions about cheap foreign supplies, have left New England exposed. “You sleep in the bed you make,” The dim outlook for natural gas supplies is mirrored in the market for liquid fuels known asdistillates, including diesel and the heating oil that is used as a fuel in many New England households. The Energy Information Administration on Thursday warned households using heating oil — about a third of homes in the north-east, versus 4 per cent nationally — would pay 45 per cent more for their fuel this winter than last because of a tight market. Stocks of the fuel in the north-east have fallen by nearly half over the past year. An assessment by the non-profit North American Electric Reliability Corporation this week found that without “considerable effort” to replenish stocks of oil and LNG, there were concerns as to “whether there will be sufficient energy available to satisfy electricity demand during an extended cold spell”.
Jones Act Is Making The US Diesel Shortage Worse -The Merchant Marine Act of 1920, popularly known as the Jones Act, requires all cargo shipped between US ports to use vessels that are built, owned, and registered in the US, and have US crews. Still in force after several revisions, most recently in 2006, it is one of the main factors underpinning the price of diesel in the US. As a result, it is playing a key role in keeping upward pressure on inflation and increasing the risk of a sharp economic slowdown next year. Refining margins have soared to record levels this year. Prices have been much stronger for refined products than for crude, because of a global refining capacity shortage and disruption caused by widespread self-sanctioning as many countries stopped buying from Russia. The effect has been particularly marked for diesel. As crude prices have declined since the summer, the average on-highway cost price of diesel has fallen slowly, dropping 7% since mid-June to $5.317 a gallon last week. The low level of inventories underpins US diesel prices. US stocks of distillate fuel oil, which includes diesel, were about 106 million barrels in the first week of November, which is their lowest level on record for this time of year, in data that go back to 1982. However, Mark Williams, Wood Mackenzie’s research director for short-term oils, says the aggregate US data give an over-simplified picture of what is happening in the market. The real shortage of diesel is regionally specific to the northeastern US, and to New York Harbor. In most of the PADD (Petroleum Administration for Defense District) regions monitored by the EIA, distillate fuel oil stocks are broadly in line with their previous five-year ranges for this time of year. In PADDs 2-4, they are at or close to the lower end of the range, and in PADD 5, which includes the west coast, Alaska, and Hawaii, they are above it. It is only in PADD 1, the east coast, and PADD 1B, the Central Atlantic region from New York to Maryland, that inventories are well below their previous five-year range. Those low levels of inventories in PADD 1B have an outsize impact on the market because the area includes New York Harbor, the delivery point for the diesel futures traded on Nymex. The obvious solution to those regional imbalances would be to increase shipments of diesel from the other PADDs to New York. But because of the Jones Act, shipping fuel from one US port to another can be more expensive than sending it to Europe, which does not require US vessels and crews.
December Natural Gas Futures Rally on Coming Cold, Eclipse $6.700 Threshold - Natural gas futures found fresh footing on Monday, as traders mulled an updated relaunch timeline for a major export facility, railroad union members considered a strike, and forecasts pointed to another round of wintry weather in early December. After shedding 6.6 cents on Friday, the December Nymex gas futures contract surged 47.3 cents day/day and settled at $6.776/MMBtu to start the new week. January gained 50.7 cents to $7.223. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. advanced 24.5 cents to $6.930. Executives at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced offline in June following a fire, said Friday they now anticipate they will begin to bring operations back online in mid-December. This came after the liquefied natural gas facility missed an earlier goal to return to service by mid-November amid ongoing repairs and work to secure regulatory approvals. Management said reconstruction work necessary to commence initial operations, including utilization of all three liquefaction trains, was about 90% complete. They expected to complete repairs by the end of this month and updated their targeted relaunch to mid-December. The company expects to then ramp up to 2.0 Bcf/d of production capacity by January, with full restoration to 2.38 Bcf/d to follow. That final push may not happen until March, officials said. While a jolt to markets Friday because the protracted absence of Freeport further hinders U.S. exporters’ ability to meet strong global LNG demand, EBW Analytics Group analyst Eli Rubin said the update from the facility, once digested Monday, “helped settle the growing rumor mill that had exerted growing influence over Nymex natural gas.” This allowed the market to refocus on winter weather as “the leading short-term indicator for natural gas” prices in a holiday-shortened trading week leading to Thanksgiving on Thursday. He noted that forecasts shifted from calls for a moderate start to December to a “burgeoning cold pattern,” igniting Monday’s rally. The cold would drive robust heating demand and, potentially, cause wellhead freeze-offs that could slow production. This could follow a harsh blast of winter over the past week that galvanized demand across much of the Lower 48 and dropped output by more than 2 Bcf/d from around 101 Bcf/d at the start of November. Should widespread cold resume in early December, “a breakout to the upside” is possible, Rubin said. NatGasWeather also anticipated another round of cold. Over the weekend, the American and European models trended warmer for Wednesday through Dec. 1, but the firm said forecasts “tease a colder pattern attempting to return Dec. 2-4.” “Due to ongoing cold temperatures over the northern and central U.S., wellhead freeze-offs have dropped U.S. production by 2 Bcf/d-plus to 98-99 Bcf/d,” NatGasWeather added.
U.S. natgas holds at two-week high on rail strike worries (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held at a two-week high on Tuesday as worries that a possible rail strike offset forecasts heating demand would decline as the weather turns milder than normal. A rail strike would disrupt shipments of coal to utilities, forcing power generators to burn more gas to produce electricity. Traders also noted the market had questions about whether Freeport will be able to restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas in mid December as planned. Freeport LNG has not yet submitted a full request to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) to restart the export plant, according to sources familiar with the company's filings. This matters because once the 2.1-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) plant restarts it will consume U.S. gas to turn it into LNG for export, boosting demand for gas at the same time cold winter weather will boost heating demand. Even though the delayed Freeport restart caused one LNG vessel - LNG Rosenrot - to turn away from the plant last week, several other ships have remained near the facility - some for weeks - including Prism Brilliance, Prism Diversity and Prism Courage. In addition, the Prism Agility was expected to arrive at the plant site in a few days, according to ship tracking data from Refinitiv. In other LNG news, the Cadiz Knutsen arrived at the Everett LNG terminal in Massachusetts with a cargo of the super-cooled fuel from Trinidad, the first LNG vessel to visit Everett since August, according to Refinitiv data. But with Everett competing with European buyers willing to pay around $35 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for gas versus just $7 in the United States, the Massachusetts port has imported only 16.7 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas as LNG during the first 10 months of this year. That is down from 18.1 bcf during the same period in 2021 and a five-year (2017-2021) average of 33.3 bcf, according to federal energy data. New England depends on LNG and oil to fuel some power plants on the coldest days when most of the region's pipeline gas is being used to heat homes and businesses. About half of the power generated in New England comes from gas-fired plants. Front-month gas futures for December delivery rose 0.3 cent to settle at $6.779 per mmBtu, their highest close since Nov. 7 for a second day in a row.
Natural Gas Futures, Spot Prices Pop on Wintry Weather Outlook, Storage Withdrawal - Natural gas futures flew ahead Wednesday, rallying a third consecutive day on festering worries about a railroad strike, expectations for blasts of cold in the month ahead and the first storage withdrawal of the season. Prices also advanced in Europe and Asia over the past week, reflecting Russia-imposed supply concerns and continued strong demand for LNG sent from the United States. The December Nymex gas futures contract on Wednesday settled at $7.308/MMBtu, up 52.9 cents day/day. January jumped 30.2 cents to $7.708. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. gained 6.5 cents to $6.745. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a withdrawal of 80 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended Nov. 18. The print proved lighter than market expectations, but it was notably steeper than the five-year average. “We are clearly well into the heating season now,” Refinitive analyst John Abeln said on the online energy platform Enelyst. His firm forecast this winter overall will be colder than the 30-year average. It “will be the third La Niña winter in a row, something that has not happened since 2000-01. La Niña winters typically feature cold weather in the Northwest,” which can spread throughout much of the Lower 48. Prior to the EIA report, major polls found expectations coalescing around a withdrawal in the mid-80s Bcf. The actual result easily exceeded a decline of 14 Bcf in the year-earlier period and a five-year average decrease of 48 Bcf. The 80 Bcf pull for the latest EIA week lowered inventories to 3,564 Bcf. That compared with 3,626 Bcf a year earlier and the five-year average of 3,603 Bcf. Looking ahead, analysts expected another bullish print relative to historic norms. Early estimates for the week ending Nov. 25 submitted to Reuters ranged from withdrawals of 79 Bcf to 119 Bcf, with an average decrease of 103 Bcf. The estimates compare with a decrease of 54 Bcf during the similar week of 2021 and a five-year average decrease of 34 Bcf.
U.S. natgas price drop trims weekly gains as milder weather predicted (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell nearly 4% on Friday on the upcoming expiration of the front-month contract and forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks, while solid gains earlier in the week still led the market to its biggest weekly gain in three. Front-month gas futures for December delivery fell 28.4 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $7.024 per million British thermal units, after prices dropped nearly 7% to a session low of $6.80. "The forecast seems to suggest that even though we are going to see this polar vortex... (traders are) pulling back some of their positions on the anticipation, the cold blast might not be as far reaching as originally feared," However, the contract posted its second straight weekly gain of over 11%, having risen to a two-month peak on Wednesday. "The bullish price action stemmed from concerns over the potential U.S. railroad workers’ strike in early December, which was exacerbated by thin market participation as many traders are out of the market for a long holiday weekend," But some "bearish reality is setting in" with a near-term warm-up in temperatures, recent storage data coming in bearish relative to expectations, dry gas production now at parity with record highs and the options expiration for the December gas contract, the note said. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday utilities pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 18, which was slightly smaller-than-expected. Meanwhile, British and Dutch gas prices were mixed due to profit taking following recent bullishness and as EU energy ministers failed to agree on a gas price cap and cooler, less windy weather increased demand for heating. In addition, the market had questions about whether Freeport LNG will be able to restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas in mid-December as planned. Freeport LNG has not yet submitted a full request to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) to restart the export plant, according to sources familiar with the company's filings. That matters because once the 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) plant restarts it will consume U.S. gas to turn it into LNG for export, boosting demand for gas at the same time that cold winter weather will boost heating demand.
Will The US Gulf Coast Soon Be Home To Floating LNG Export Capacity? RBN Energy -- The need for more LNG export capacity, driven both by Europe’s push to wean itself off Russian gas and long-term Asian demand growth, is resulting in a new wave of development. Two major U.S. projects have reached a positive final investment decision (FID) in the past six months and more are likely to do so soon, both in the U.S. and elsewhere. But conventional export terminals take time to build, leading at least some, like New Fortress Energy, to explore the potential for floating LNG (FLNG) facilities — basically, an LNG export terminal located on the topside of a large tanker — which can bring new capacity online faster, much like the floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) that are now boosting European import capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we take a look at FLNGs, what’s already out there, and what could be coming to North America in the next few years.An FLNG terminal has everything that a conventional terminal has, from feedgas intake to liquefaction equipment to storage, housed right on the vessel. To date, FLNGs have only been used with offshore production as a feedgas source, docking near the gas source and tying into new or existing subsea infrastructure. In many ways, the current interest in floating export terminals — including FLNGs docked at onshore locations, not out at sea — would seem to be a natural extension of the interest in FSRUs (see Float On for a review of FSRUs). So far, though, there are just five FLNGs in operation (again, all of them at offshore production sites), compared to about 50 FSRUs currently in operation and more coming.The five FLNG vessels in operation are:
- Shell’s Prelude LNG — the largest of the FLNG vessels already up and running, with a capacity of 3.6 million tons per annum (MMtpa; about 480 MMcf/d). It is located off the coast of Australia (blue-outlined ship in Figure 1).
- Petronas’s PFLNG Satu and PFLNG Dua, which have a combined capacity of 2.7 MMtpa (~360 MMcf/d) and are both anchored off Malaysia (pink ships).
- Golar LNG’s Hilli Episeyo, located off Cameroon (red ship). It has an export capacity of 2.4 MMtpa (~320 MMcf/d) but currently operates around 1.4 MMtpa (~185 MMcf/d) while drilling infrastructure in the area is being scaled up.
- ENI’s brand-new Coral-SUL FLNG, which is anchored off Mozambique (yellow ship) and exported its first LNG cargo earlier this month. The Coral-SUL has a capacity of 3.4 MMtpa (~450 MMcf/d).
Beyond these five, ENI’s Tango FLNG, a 0.6-MMtpa (~80 MMcf/d) terminal that previously operated in Argentina, is being moved to the Republic of Congo (green square). First LNG from the new location is expected next year as part of the Marine XII project. BP also has a project in Africa under construction, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim FLNG project, located offshore at the border of Senegal and Mauritania (purple square), which is due online in 2023 after some construction delays. [While FSRUs have primarily seen smooth startups, FLNG vessels have often faced a bumpy road (see New Dawn Fades for more).] Reliability has also been a concern for the existing FLNGs. The unplanned downtime is much higher compared to land-based terminals as it’s harder to complete repairs and maintenance in such tight quarters.
Deepwater Oil And Gas Production To Rise 60pct By 2030 --Deepwater production is set to increase by over 60% between 2022 and 2030, growing from 6% to 8% of overall upstream production. Ultra-deepwater production – from depths of 5,000 feet and above is growing fastest – by 2024 it will account for more than half of all deepwater production. Deepwater is the fastest-growing upstream oil and gas resource theme. From just 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in 1990, production is expected to hit 10.4 million boe/d in 2022. By the end of the decade, that figure should pass 17 million boe/d, Wood Mackenzie suggested. According to Woodmac, Brazil remains the leading deepwater producer, it accounts for around 30% of current global capacity and will continue to grow. Guyana, the most significant new entrant, will be producing one million boe/d within the next five years. In total 14 other countries will contribute to the deepwater supply mix in the coming years. Despite the diversification of sources, and corporate participants, control over major deepwater projects sits in the hands of relatively few companies. Just eight companies account for 65% of deepwater production and 67% of the remaining project value. Petrobras and the seven Majors dominate deepwater production, operating 22 of the top 25 deepwater assets. Petrobras’ deepwater portfolio is around twice as big as its nearest peer, Shell, which stands out among the majors for leading production and cash flow. ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies show the highest rates of growth this decade. Woodmac said that, typically, only the best subsurface plays become commercial in water this deep. Deepwater basins, therefore, tend to be hyperproductive, recovering huge volumes of oil and gas from each well. This translates into high economic returns and low Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensities relative to most other oil and gas resource themes. But there is still room for emissions improvement. The Majors are focused on cutting deepwater emissions by reducing flaring and methane leaks, optimizing operations at existing platforms, and, where possible, facility electrification. Brazil’s scale means it is the highest absolute emitter and its performance is contingent on Petrobras’ decarbonization aspirations.
Offshore oil and gas at risk of potentially catastrophic cyberattack: GAO - The nation’s offshore oil and gas industry faces a significant and growing risk of a malicious cyberattack that could result in a catastrophic incident rivaling the deadly Deepwater Horizon incident in 2010, according to a report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office.. The industry includes about 1,600 offshore oil and gas facilities that are highly dependent on remotely connected operational technology, the report said. Many of these systems rely on aging technology, which lack many of the built-in safeguards that protect facilities against modern cybersecurity risks. The Department of Interior, which oversees the industry, needs to urgently develop a plan to mitigate such a threat, the report warns. Department officials have been aware of such a risk for years, however multiple attempts to take corrective action have fallen short or failed to get off the ground. The 2021 Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack disrupted much of the nation’s supply of gasoline for nearly a week, causing runs on fuel, temporary price spikes and outages in stations across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Following that incident and the later ransomware attack on meatpacking firm JBS USA, the Biden administration highlighted the risk of cyberattacks or breaches across a core group of 16 critical infrastructure sectors. The offshore oil and gas industry is part of a larger risk to the U.S. energy sector, which has come under scrutiny in part due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to even greater pressure on global oil and gas prices and attacks on energy facilities. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement at the Interior Department previously launched efforts in 2015 and 2020 to address cybersecurity risks, but failed to take substantive action in both cases, according to the report. The BSEE launched another plan earlier this year to address cybersecurity and hired a specialist to lead the effort, but later put that plan on pause to offer more time for the official to get up to speed on the issues, the report stated. “Interior officials, specifically the [BSEE] leadership, has been aware of cyberthreats to offshore infrastructure, but have simply not acted on those threats in a sufficient or timely fashion,” Frank Rusco, director of national resources and environment at GAO, said via email. While Rusco said the agency cannot specifically rank what type of cybersecurity attack poses the biggest risk, he reiterated “environmental and worker safety damages are potentially very large” in light of the multi-billion dollar cost of the Deep Water Horizon disaster. The explosion and 87-day oil spill resulted in 11 deaths and 134 million gallons of oil leaked into the Gulf of Mexico. A federal judge in 2016 approved a record $20.8 billion settlement in the case. A spokesperson for the National Ocean Industries Association, which serves offshore oil, gas, wind and ocean minerals industries, said cybersecurity is a “critically important issue” for the group, but they were in the process of reviewing the report. A spokesperson for BSEE said the agency does not have any further comments beyond what was printed in the report.
Biden administration approves Gulf oil terminal opposed by Texas city --Federal regulators this week approved a new oil terminal in the Gulf of Mexico off Texas over the objections of local activists, who argued the move contravenes the Biden administration’s stated climate goals.The Transportation Department’s Maritime Administration formally granted the license Nov. 21, ending a process that began under the Trump administration three years ago. The Sea Port Oil Terminal would be located offshore of Freeport, Texas, with a capacity of 2 million barrels a day. The project would involve two pipelines running through the city of Surfside Beach, where the City Council unanimously voted in opposition to the project in March 2020.Greenpeace blasted the Biden administration’s approval of the terminal, pointing to an environmental impact statement published in July projecting the terminal would generate 83,000 tons of carbon emissions per year through the construction process alone, with a projected total of 219 million tons a year in downstream refining and combustion emissions.The environmentalist group also pointed to President Biden’s recent attendance at the COP27 United Nations climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, and the Biden administration’s stated commitment to cutting carbon emissions by 50 percent by 2030.“When we say oil and gas companies are sacrificing communities to make a buck this is exactly what we’re talking about. We have less than a decade to cut emissions by half. Approving new oil and gas projects is not a bridge, it is an on-ramp to planetary collapse,” Destiny Watford, climate campaigner at Greenpeace US, said in a statement. “It is peak hypocrisy for President Biden and [Transportation] Secretary Pete Buttigieg to shorten the fuse on the world’s largest carbon bomb by greenlighting additional oil export terminals right after lecturing the world about increasing climate ambitions at COP27.”
Permian Gas Production Set to Rise 41% by 2030, Rystad Says —Gas production from the Permian Basin is expected to grow approximately 6.3 Bcf/d by 2030, up around 41% compared to current levels. The bulk of the Permian’s gas production will come from the Delaware sub-basin followed by the Midland sub-basin by the end of the decade, Rob Cordray, senior vice president of consulting at Rystad Energy, told attendees to the Hart Energy Executive Oil Conference. The U.S. Permian Basin as well as the other U.S. shale basins are key to anchoring U.S. LNG exports and projected rises in the future. Permian production of both oil and gas has already surpassed pre-pandemic highs, Cordray said. “Permian production grew at a rate of 15.3% per annum from January 2018 to June 2022, rich gas production led growth, while light oil volumes have maintained a greater share of production owing to higher baseline volumes,” he said, adding that “rich gas volumes have broken out above the share range bound 30%-35% share of production, reaching nearly 40% in the second quarter of 2022.” Volume growth in the Permian Basin has been led by gas production in both the Delaware and Midland basins with volumes doubling between first-half 2018 and first-half 2022 to 11.7 Bcf/d and 6.8 Bcf/d, respectively. However, the production mix in the Central Basin Platform and elsewhere in the Permian has seen little or no change, according to Rystad data. Despite the rising production profile in the Permian Basin, flaring intensity has declined by 70%, led by substantial improvements in key sub-basins. Expanded pipeline capacity has coincided with immediate flaring reductions, according to Cordray. It should also be noted that flared volumes in the Permian Basin rose between 2018-2019 owing to a lack of infrastructure as well as outages of gas processing facilities and pipelines, he added. Cordray said the top five U.S. shale plays—Permian Midland, Permian Delaware, Haynesville, Utica and Marcellus—are slated for continued growth and expected to assist gas production rise to around 110 Bcf/d in 2030. The five plays are set to account for 73% of all U.S. gas output by 2040. U.S. LNG piped-gas exports to Mexico are also set to rise anchored by much of the same gas production growth trends. Growth in U.S. LNG exports is expected to accelerate through the end of the decade and surpass 25 Bcf/d by 2030 amid strong demand for the low-carbon energy source and as Europe scrambles to buy up LNG to replace lost Russian piped gas-imports. Through the end of the decade, U.S. gross LNG exports for producing and sanctioned projects could reach around 25% of total U.S. LNG production by 2030 and around 31%-32% by 2040.
Texas Just Had Its Biggest Earthquake in Decades, and Fracking Is a Prime Suspect -The Railroad Commission Texas, which regulates the state’s oil and gas industry, is investigating a 5.4-magnitude earthquake that rocked communities in West Texas last Wednesday, The Texas Tribune reports.Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is a drilling technique common in the areathat is known to cause earthquakes.According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the earthquake occurred on November 16, just west of Pecos, Texas. This was the state’s largestearthquake since 1995 and was felt as far as El Paso. The oil and gas regulatory agency is trying to understand if this was a naturally occurring earthquake or if it was caused by waste water from fracking. Waste water disposal from fracking has dramatically increased the number of earthquakes in Texas. The seismic activity has especially become more common around the Permian Basin in West Texas, where oil and gas production is concentrated, according to the Texas Tribune.During the fracking process, oil companies inject a mix of water, sand, and chemicals into Earth’s crust. This fractures the rock formation, which then allows the companies to extract natural gas and oil from deep in the ground. Many oil and gas companies dispose of this polluted waste water in wells deep underground. The pressure from these wells can trigger nearby dormant fault lines, causing earthquakes. A lot of the recorded seismic activity around areas like Pecos and El Paso has been connected to these contaminated underwater wells, according to research from the U.S. Geological Survey.The Texas Tribune previously reported that the number of earthquakes in the state doubled in 2021. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin, there were more than 200 earthquakes categorized as 3 magnitude and higher. There were only 95 earthquakes reported in Texas in 2020, according to the Bureau’s data. Communities near hydraulic fracturing sites are at risk from more than just rumbling ground. A study this past January connected fracking to premature deaths of people who live near the sites. Fracking is known to pose significant health risks: The sites contaminate nearby water sources, and fracking leakscarcinogenic pollutants into the air and water. Fracking can also release PFAS into the environment, chemicals linked to a variety of health issues.
'El Paso May Get Stronger Earthquakes,' Says Seismologist - Last week, a 5.4 earthquake centered near Pecos was felt by thousands of people over two hundred miles away in El Paso. And, according to a seismologist at UTEP, we could be in store for even bigger quakes in the future.Aaron Velasco says El Paso could get a 7-point earthquake AND it could be centered much closer than last week’s. Professor Velasco says the quake last week is the largest that has happened in Texas since modern times and definitely the biggest on record.El Paso sits on the East Franklin Mountain Fault and, Velasco says, if that fault were to experience a slip (which it WILL someday), the resulting quake could be as strong as 7.0 on the Richter Scale.The last time the EFM Fault slipped was 12,000 years ago. But, Mr. Velasco says, the next slip could be “a thousand years from now, or tomorrow”. Of course, he adds, the chances of it happening any time soon are “very low”.So, what’s causing EARTHQUAKES to happen in Texas? When I grew up, in Oklahoma, the idea of an earthquake in the Sooner state would have been far-fetched, like having a blizzard in Miami Beach.For the past decade or so seismological events have become fairly common. I always think, “those earthquakes only started when fracking started up”. I know correlation doesn’t always equal causation but many geologists have favored the theory of “induced earthquakes”.The US Geological Survey says that around 2% of these induced quakes might be the result of fracking, a technique of running salt water into the ground to “fracture” the subsurface and make hard-to-reach oil deposits accessible.The majority of induced earthquakes, the USGS says, are primarily caused by the disposal of wastewater which IS a byproduct of oil production. The largest earthquake KNOWN to be induced by fracking was a 4.0 quake, also in Texas, in 2018. Prof. Velasco speculates that waste disposal from fracking COULD be a factor in last week’s event. He also says that a 7.0 event could cause “significant structural damage” to buildings in El Paso and that planning and prepare for such an event would be wise. Here’s the video of the story that ran on KTSM news:
Diesel Shortage: World's most-crucial fuel heads for shortage touching everything - No fuel is more essential to the global economy than diesel. It powers trucks, buses, ships and trains. It drives machinery for construction, manufacturing and farming. It’s burned for heating homes. And with the high price of natural gas, in some places it’s also being used to generate power. Within the next few months, almost every region on the planet will face the danger of a diesel shortage at a time when supply crunches in nearly all the world’s energy markets have worsened inflation and stifled growth. The toll could be enormous, feeding through into everything from the price of a Thanksgiving turkey to consumer bills for heating homes this winter. In the US alone, the surging diesel cost will mean a $100 billion hit to the economy, according to Mark Finley, an energy fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute of Public Policy. “Anything and everything that gets moved in our economy, diesel is there,” Finley said. “Moving stuff around is one thing. People potentially freezing to death is another.” In the US, stockpiles of diesel and heating oil are at their lowest point ever for this time of year in data going back four decades. Northwest Europe is also facing a low buffer — inventories are forecast to hit a low this month and then tumble even more by March, shortly after sanctions come into play that will cut the region off from Russian seaborne supplies. Global export markets have gotten so tight that poorer countries like Pakistan are getting shut out, with suppliers failing to book enough cargoes to meet the nation’s domestic needs. Diesel in the spot market of New York harbor, a key benchmark, is up roughly 50% this year. The price reached $4.90 a gallon in early November, about double year-ago levels. Even more telling is the premium that diesel is commanding. Spreads for the fuel are widening both against crude oil, a sign of how tight refining capacity is, and in relation to supplies that are for later delivery, underscoring that traders are desperate to get their hands on the stuff now. In northwest Europe, diesel futures cost about $40 a barrel more than Brent, versus a five-year seasonal norm of just $12. New York diesel futures for December delivery are trading about 12 cents higher than those for January. That compares with a premium of less than a cent at this time last year. Supplies of crude oil are already fairly tight. But the bottleneck is much more acute when it comes to turning that raw commodity into fuels like diesel and gasoline. That’s partly a function of the pandemic, after lockdowns destroyed demand and forced refiners to close some of their least profitable plants. But the looming transition away from fossil fuels has also dented investments in the sector. Since 2020, US refining capacity has shrunk by more than 1 million barrels per day. Meanwhile in Europe, shipping disruptions and worker strikes have also eaten into refinery production. Things could get much more dramatic with the European Union’s looming pivot away from Russian supply. Europe relies more heavily on diesel than any other in the world. Roughly 500 million barrels a year get delivered by ship, with around half of that typically loaded at Russian ports, according to data from Vortexa Ltd. The US also has halted imports from Russia, which was a big supplier to the East Coast last winter. Also churning in the background is a market structure known as backwardation, when premiums are higher for supplies with prompt deliveries than for longer-term ones. Not only has that spread been unusually large, but the backwardation has lasted unusually long. This backwardated market structure incentivizes suppliers to sell now instead of holding onto the product to build inventories. In the US, shortages along the East Coast already had suppliers rationing and initiating emergency protocols, and winter hasn’t even begun. The Northeast, the most densely populated corner of the US where temperatures are often below freezing during a bitter winter, is also the most reliant on heating oil for keeping homes warm. (Diesel and heating oil are the same product in the US, just taxed differently.) Even in a best-case scenario, consumers there will be saddled with the highest energy bills in decades this winter. Already, the government has nearly doubled its estimate for the increase, projecting that families who rely on heating oil can expect to pay 45% more than last winter, up from an October estimate of 27%. To be sure, prolonged, diesel shortages throughout the US are improbable since the country is a net exporter of the fuel. But localized outages and price spikes are likely to become more frequent, especially on the East Coast, where a dearth of pipelines creates huge bottlenecks. The region is heavily reliant on the Colonial pipeline that’s often full. A century-old shipping law, known as the Jones Act, further complicates the movement of domestic fuel and encourages producers on the Gulf Coast to favor exports over supplying the domestic market. From early February, EU sanctions will ban Russian seaborne deliveries. Those Russian barrels must somehow be replaced if the region’s economy is to keep running as it is today. How and whether that will happen is, so far, unclear. Winter cold will also exacerbate problems in Europe. Across the northwest, inventories are expected to sink to 211.9 million barrels in March, the month after the EU sanctions kick in, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd. That would be lowest level in records going back to 2011. As the sanctions deadline rapidly approaches, Europe is still importing a huge amount of diesel from Russia. It is also pulling in vast quantities from Saudi Arabia, India and others. As a result, October waterborne imports hit their highest since at least the start of 2016, according to data from Vortexa compiled by Bloomberg. Germany has already seen tightness, as low Rhine levels hampered deliveries and curbed production, while refineries in neighboring Hungary and Austria have also suffered significant disruption. French output was stifled by a spate of worker strikes over pay. “If Russia is not a supplier anymore, that puts a big, big dent into the system, which is going to be really difficult to fix,”
Lesser Prairie-Chicken Listed as Endangered or Threatened in Five States, Posing Oil and Natural Gas Hurdles - The lesser prairie-chicken, whose habitat is spread across five U.S. states, has been listed as endangered or threatened under the stringent Endangered Species Act (ESA), which may lead to issues for future oil and natural gas development. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) earlier this month listed two distinct population segments (DPS) of the species as endangered or threatened. The listings followed an extensive review of “past, present and future threats,” and by analyzing ongoing conservation efforts. The Southern DPS, which includes eastern New Mexico and the southwestern Texas Panhandle, “is in danger of extinction,” officials said. The Northern DPS, encompassing southeastern Colorado, south-central to western Kansas, western Oklahoma and the northeastern Texas Panhandle “is likely to become endangered in the foreseeable future.” A rule also is being finalized by USFWS to conserve the Northern DPS habitat for lesser prairie-chicken “while allowing greater flexibility for landowners and land managers.” Habitat in Southern DPS consists mostly of shinnery oak prairie. Habitat in the Northern DPS includes short-grass, mixed-grass and sand sagebrush ecoregions. “The lesser prairie-chicken’s decline is a sign our native grasslands and prairies are in peril,” said USFWS’s Amy Lueders, Southwest regional director. “These habitats support a diversity of wildlife and are valued for water quality, climate resilience, grazing, hunting and recreation. “The Service continues to work with stakeholders to develop voluntary conservation agreements that will protect the lesser prairie-chicken and the native grasslands on which it depends while assuring that oil and gas and renewable energy development, ranching, agriculture and other activities continue.”
Oil, Natural Gas Permitting Tick Up in Rockies as Permian, Marcellus Dip - Oil and natural gas permitting in the Lower 48 slowed down sequentially in October, although the monthly permit count was up on both a year/year basis and when compared to pre-Covid October 2019 numbers, Evercore ISI data show. Operators filed a total of 3,308 permits last month, down 16% from September but up 25% versus October 2021, said Evercore researchers led by James West in the firm’s latest monthly tally. The permit count also was up 6% versus October 2019, researchers noted. The Permian Basin of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico led the month/month decline, with permits falling by 486 to 1,190. The Marcellus and Eagle Ford shales also saw drops of 149 and 87, respectively, versus September. These declines were partially offset by permitting increases in the Powder River (plus 87) and Denver-Julesburg/Niobrara (plya 70) basins, as well as “smaller shale plays (plus 203),” the Evercore team said. The Powder River Basin (PRB) of northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana features prominently in the portfolios of Lower 48 players such as EOG Resources Inc. and Devon Energy Corp. Devon reported average pre-hedge natural gas prices of $8.23/Mcf in the PRB during the third quarter. Pioneer Natural Resources Co. bucked the Permian permitting trend, filing 104 permits in October, up 82% month/month to record the highest monthly total of any operator in the basin. Pioneer also is the largest Permian producer. The Permian’s next four leading permit filers were Diamondback Energy Inc. (50), Chevron Corp. (27), Coterra Energy Inc. (27) and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (25). Broken down by state, month/month declines were seen in Texas (minus 537), New Mexico (minus 132), North Dakota (minus 21), Oklahoma (minus 56) and Pennsylvania (minus 122). These drops were partially offset by gains in California (up 164), Wyoming (up 105) and Colorado (up 66).
Oil, Natural Gas Lease Sales Proposed for Nevada and Utah - The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has begun a one-month scoping process to take comments on potential oil and natural gas lease sales across parts of Nevada and Utah. The Interior Department agency is reviewing potential auctions for up to 35 parcels in Nevada totaling 63,604 acres and 18 parcels in Utah totaling 31,808 acres. The lease sales, if approved, would include updated fiscal provisions authorized by the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The provisions require minimum bids of $10/acre for all offered parcels, an increase from the $2 minimum set in 1987. Royalty rates would increase to 16.67% from the previous minimum of 12.5%. In addition, rental rates would be $3/acre for the first two years, $5 for years three through eight, and $15 in years nine and 10. Prior to the IRA, rental rates originally set in 1987 were $1.50/acre for the first five years and $2/acre for each year thereafter. BLM also updated the policy guidance to implement the IRA provisions, which include the right to refuse anonymous nominations for land to be sold at auction and prioritizing leasing near existing drilling developments and away from protected lands. The update also tightens the rules that govern permit extensions to drill.
U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips challenged over ‘secretive’ tax practices -- Oxfam on Monday filed shareholder resolutions against U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, saying a lack of transparency over their global tax practices poses a material risk for long-term investors. The international relief charity said the companies' tax practices undermine the public's interest in a fair tax system — especially in Global South countries "with the greatest tax revenue needs." "Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips's threadbare tax disclosures leave investors, watchdog groups, and the general public in the dark about the companies' secretive tax practices," Daniel Mulé, policy lead on extractive industries and tax at Oxfam America, said in a statement. ConocoPhillips confirmed it had received a shareholder proposal from Oxfam and would review it ahead of its annual general meeting in May next year. The company added that it "remains committed to following all applicable disclosure rules in the countries in which we operate." A spokesperson for Chevron said the company "complies with all applicable tax laws. Our approach to tax matches our efforts globally to conduct our business legally, responsibly, and with integrity." Exxon Mobil did not respond to a request for comment when contacted by CNBC. It comes amid a broader push for greater tax transparency from large corporations, particularly as people around the world feel the squeeze of a cost-of-living crisis. Oil majors have been repeatedly criticized for their global tax operations. And, in recent months, energy giants have faced growing calls for a windfall tax after raking in record-breaking profits thanks to a surge in the price of oil and gas following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Speaking late last month, U.S. President Joe Biden threatened to pursue higher taxes on oil company profits if industry giants do not work to cut gas prices, accusing energy giants of "war profiteering." "Oil companies' record profits today are not because they're doing something new or innovative," Biden said on Oct. 31. "Their profits are a windfall of war — the windfall from the brutal conflict that's ravaging Ukraine and hurting tens of millions of people around the globe."
Environmental groups oppose pipeline expansion in Pacific NW - (AP) — The U.S. government has taken a step toward approving the expansion of a natural gas pipeline in the Pacific Northwest — a move opposed by environmentalists and the attorneys general of Oregon, California and Washington state. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, announced Friday it has completed an environmental impact statement that concluded the project "would result in limited adverse impacts on the environment.”“Most adverse environmental impacts would be temporary or short-term,” the federal agency said.A grassroots coalition of environmental groups said the analysis conflicts with climate goals of Pacific Northwest states and fails "to address upstream methane emissions from the harmful practice of fracking.” The Gas Transmission Northwest pipeline belongs to TC Energy of Calgary, Canada - the same company behind the now-abandoned Keystone XL crude oil pipeline. Gas Transmission Northwest proposes to modify three existing compressor stations along the pipeline — in Kootenai County, Idaho; Walla Walla County, Washington; and Sherman County, Oregon — to boost capacity by about 150 million cubic feet per day of natural gas. The company says the project is necessary to meet consumer demand.The 1,377-mile (2,216-kilomter) pipeline runs from the Canadian border, through a corner of Idaho, and into Washington state and Oregon, connecting with a pipeline going into California.In August, the attorneys general of Oregon, Washington state and California asked the FERC to deny the proposal, saying the expansion is expected to result in more than 3.24 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year, including methane and carbon dioxide.“This project undermines Washington state’s efforts to fight climate change,” Washington state Attorney General Ferguson said back then. “This pipeline is bad for the environment and bad for consumers.”The grassroots coalition said the federal study didn’t adequately address harmful impacts on the climate caused by the project, including by fracking to obtain the natural gas. The energy industry uses the technique to extract oil and gas from rock by injecting high-pressure mixtures of water, sand or gravel and chemicals. But the technique increases emissions of methane, an extraordinarily potent greenhouse gas.“FERC’s approach will worsen the climate crisis, downplaying the impacts of a proposal that will pollute our communities, impact health and safety, and create millions of tons of climate-changing pollution each year,” said Lauren Goldberg, executive director of Columbia Riverkeeper, an environmental group based in Hood River, Oregon.The regulatory commission’s study noted that its staff was unable to assess the project’s contribution to greenhouse gases “through any objective analysis.”“Climate change is a global concern,” the federal study said. “However, for this analysis, we will focus on the existing and potential cumulative climate change impacts in the project area.”TC Energy said Saturday that it is reviewing the environmental impact statement, which recommended a few mitigation measures.
Enbridge Rations Pipeline Space -Enbridge Inc., the world’s largest oil export pipeline system operator, is rationing space on its key Canada line, adding yet another headwind for oil producers. Enbridge will apportion space on the heavy oil segment of its Mainline system -- known as Line 4/67/93 and running from Alberta to Wisconsin-- by the most since November last year. Apportionment is when shippers reduce volume when they see too much demand on a system, and has contributed to a glut of supply in the past as producers are left with the excess. Pipeline apportionment has previously led to large discounts for Canada’s crude oil and now threatens already-weak oil prices. The discount for Canadian heavy crude is almost $30 in Alberta, close to the widest since 2018, amid releases of high-sulfur oil from US strategic petroleum reserves and high natural gas prices making Canadian oil expensive to refine. The rise in apportionment signals that export lines may be filling up again amid record oil production in the province and rising demand for Canadian crude on the US Gulf Coast.
CFE Natural Gas Exports from U.S. to Mexico Surge in Second Quarter A U.S. subsidiary of Mexico’s state power company Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) posted a 14% year/year increase in pipeline natural gas exports from the United States to Mexico during the second quarter, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The subsidiary, CFE International LLC (CFEi), exported 298,963 MMcf or 3.3 Bcf/d under short-term contracts during the period, up from 262,844 MMcf (2.89 Bcf/d) in 2Q2021, according to DOE’s latest North American natural gas trade report. Amid stagnant production in Mexico, CFE sources gas from the United States in order to fuel the company’s growing fleet of gas-fired power plants. It also markets gas to third parties within Mexico. CFEi was the No. 12 marketer by volume in NGI’s latest quarterly survey of North American marketers and traders. Pemex Transformación Industrial, a subsidiary of state oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) exported 60,829 MMcf or 668 MMcf/d from the United States during the period, down from 89,218 MMcf (980 MMcf/d) a year earlier, DOE data show. Exports of U.S. natural gas to Mexico by pipeline and truck rose 8.8% sequentially but fell by 5.5% year/year in 2Q2022 to 542.7 Bcf or 5.96 Bcf/d, according to the report. Mexico was the destination for 70.6% of U.S. pipeline exports, with the remaining 29.4% going to Canada. Prices of U.S. pipeline and trucked exports to Mexico averaged $7.22/MMBtu for the quarter, up from $3.06 in 2Q2021. The United States exported gas to Mexico via 19 exit points along the border during the second quarter. About 61% of exports transited from one of four Texas border cities: Rio Grande City and Brownsville in South Texas, and Presidio and San Elizario in West Texas. Rio Grande City was the winner, accounting for 127.6 Bcf or 1.4 Bcf/d. Brownsville is the starting point of the 2.6 Bcf/d Sur de Texas-Tuxpan offshore pipeline. Exports to Mexico via the Permian Basin in West Texas doubled from 0.6 Bcf/d in 2019 to 1.2 Bcf/d in 2021, driven by infrastructure coming online in Mexico, according to a recent note by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. CFEi CEO Miguel Reyes said at the recent LDC US-Mexico Natural Gas Forum in San Antonio, TX, earlier this month that CFE is working with private sector firms to optimize excess pipeline capacity to shore up supply for the Mexican market. Flagship projects include the 1.3 Bcf/d Southeast Gateway offshore pipeline planned with TC Energy Corp., as well as an offshore liquefied natural gas hub in partnership with New Fortress Energy Inc.
Mexico’s Gas-Rich Lakach, Once Thought Dead, Being Revived as Export Project - New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) is steaming ahead with another LNG export project in Mexico. On Tuesday, the company said it had finalized a deal with Mexican state oil firm Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to develop and operate a natural gas field and a liquefaction project off the coast of Veracruz. The offshore liquefaction plant at the Lakach deepwater natural gas field would be in addition to at least two liquefied natural gas units planned offshore the port of Altamira. While those other projects will use U.S.-sourced gas, for this project NFE would invest in completing seven offshore wells at the gassy Lakach field over a two-year period. Plans are for NFE to deploy to the Lakach field its 1.4 mmty Sevan Driller floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) unit, which is currently being readied in a shipyard in Singapore. NFE anticipates the all-in cost of producing LNG at Lakach will be among the lowest in the world. The news comes as European LNG imports are fetching record high prices. Given the Atlantic coast location, Europe would be the logical market for the exports. NFE has said it expects to bring online more than half of the world’s total expected LNG capacity additions during the 2023-2024 period. At Lakach, NFE said it will provide upstream services to Pemex. This would include producing natural gas and condensate in exchange for a fee for every unit of production delivered to Pemex. The fee would be based on a contractual formula based on industry-standard gross profit-sharing agreements. NFE would also have the right to purchase volumes for its FLNG unit, while Pemex plans to sell the remaining natural gas volumes and all of the produced condensate to its customers onshore.
How the U.S. became a global leader in LNG – and why Canada has fallen behind - As Highway 27 winds around Calcasieu Lake in southwest Louisiana, massive storage tanks tower over the wetlands in what is shaping up to be a new global epicentre for exports of liquefied natural gas. Near the town of Hackberry, Cameron LNG is eyeing expansion of its already-huge terminal, which opened in 2019. Along the highway and down other roads, there are three new proposed export terminals fronting the lake, which is just south of the small city of Lake Charles. One, Driftwood LNG, has more than 200 people working on early-stage site preparation. Driving south toward the Gulf of Mexico, there are four proposed LNG sites near the mouth of the Calcasieu River. At least a dozen LNG proposals are now in the works statewide in Louisiana. Eight projects are near Lake Charles in the southwest, all vying to join the three export terminals already operating in the state. U.S. LNG production and exports were already rising when the invasion upended global energy markets. And activity has ramped up even faster as Europe scrambles to reduce its dependence on natural gas from Russia. The boom along the Gulf Coast stands in stark contrast to an LNG industry in Canada that finds itself stuck in a holding pattern. The Shell PLC-led LNG Canada project in Kitimat, B.C., is the only export terminal under construction in the country, even though Canada is the world’s sixth-largest producer of natural gas. The differences are particularly striking between Louisiana, where politicians enthusiastically back LNG, and British Columbia, where new NDP Premier David Eby is under political pressure to do more to fight climate change. In 2013, there were more than 20 LNG proposals in B.C., but at the start of 2016, there weren’t any terminals exporting LNG from either Canada or the U.S. By 2019, most of the B.C. proponents had dropped out, unable to make the economics work. LNG Canada’s $18-billion terminal is slated to begin shipping at a rate of 14 million tonnes of LNG a year to Asia in 2025, when it would become Canada’s first export terminal. But in the first half of this year, the U.S. became the world’s top LNG exporter, edging ahead of Qatar and Australia. The U.S.’s current LNG export capacity is about 90 million tonnes a year. When push comes to shove – and Gulf Coast LNG exporters have plenty of local opponents – the sector has prevailed. In just six years, the U.S. has become a global powerhouse in exporting the fuel, bolstered by the shale gas revolution. The global realities of Europe’s energy crisis have sparked a U.S. LNG renaissance. And federal, state and local politicians in Louisiana express unabashed support for LNG. Canada lags for several reasons, and one of the biggest is politics. Canadian leaders vow to keep climate goals top of mind. They already cite the need to eventually transition from LNG to hydrogen, and request that any new LNG projects rely on hydroelectricity in the liquefaction process instead of using traditional turbines fired by natural gas.
Why cheap US gas costs a fortune in Europe – The EU is under immense pressure to cap the price of imported natural gas to contain energy costs — but many of the companies making a fortune selling cheap U.S. gas to the Continent at eye-watering markups are European.The liquefied natural gas (LNG) loaded on to tankers at U.S. ports costs nearly four times more on the other side of the Atlantic, largely due to the market disruption caused by a near-total loss of Russian deliveries following the invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission has come under fierce pressure to sketch out a gas price cap plan, but some countries, led by Germany, worry such a measure could prompt shippers to send gas cargoes elsewhere. The Commission is also reluctant, and its proposal issued Tuesday sets such demanding requirements that they weren’t met even during this summer’s price emergency. Share on Twitter Share on Linkedin Share on WhatsApp Mail Print PRESS PLAY TO LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE 0:00 Voiced by artificial intelligence. The EU is under immense pressure to cap the price of imported natural gas to contain energy costs — but many of the companies making a fortune selling cheap U.S. gas to the Continent at eye-watering markups are European. The liquefied natural gas (LNG) loaded on to tankers at U.S. ports costs nearly four times more on the other side of the Atlantic, largely due to the market disruption caused by a near-total loss of Russian deliveries following the invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission has come under fierce pressure to sketch out a gas price cap plan, but some countries, led by Germany, worry such a measure could prompt shippers to send gas cargoes elsewhere. The Commission is also reluctant, and its proposal issued Tuesday sets such demanding requirements that they weren’t met even during this summer’s price emergency. But a large part of the trade is in European hands, according to America's biggest LNG exporter. "Ninety percent of everything we produce is sold to third parties, and most of our customers are utilities — the Enels, the Endesas, the Naturgys, the Centricas and the Engies of the world," said Corey Grindal, executive vice president for worldwide trading at Cheniere Energy, rattling off the names of big-name European energy providers. Cheniere, which this year saw 70 percent of its exported LNG sail to Europe, sells its gas on a fix-priced scheme based on the American benchmark price, dubbed Henry Hub, which is currently at about $6 per million British thermal units. On average, the price across all Cheniere contracts is 115 percent of Henry Hub plus $3, Grindal said. That works out to about €33 per megawatt-hour. For comparison, the current EU benchmark rate, dubbed TTF, is €119 per MWh. It's a big markup for whoever is reselling those LNG cargoes into Europe's wholesale market, profiting from fears that there may not be enough gas to last the winter. Despite fears that any EU cap will send gas to higher bidders in Asia and result in bloc-wide shortages, Grindal gave a resounding "no" when asked if a cap would have any impact on how Cheniere does business with European companies.
Russia-Ukraine War, Fracking Turn America Into The World's 4th Largest Crude Oil Exporter -- The rise of the fracking industry and the persistence of the Russia-Ukraine war have helped the U.S. economy become the 4th largest exporter of crude oil in the world in 2022.That's according to Athens-based oil analyst and a Greek Chamber of Commerce member Theophanis Matsopoulos. "The total U.S. energy products exports in 2021 were 134 million tons," he told International Business Times in a phone interview. "In the first nine months of 2022 alone, exports skyrocketed to 120 million tons."Matsopoulos believes that the critical driver behind these export gains is the tension between the European Union (EU) and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, which pushed the EU to find alternative fossil fuel suppliers to cut the long-lasting energy dependence on Russia."The war resulted in Europe becoming a significant energy importer of U.S. oil, accounting for 42% of the total U.S. exports, showing an increase of 52% on a y-o-y basis," Matsopoulos added. "In comparison, 45% of the exports went to the Asian markets."Matsopoulos thinks that this rapid expansion of America's exports could give the world's largest economy the title of the "global winner of the oil war," reaffirming its strategic leadership position since the Second World War. "The increased supply of oil to the global market combined with the provision of quantities to the EU has recharged the relationships of the superpower with many allies, especially those in Europe," he said.Kunal Sawhney, chief executive officer of Kalkine Group, provides further insight into the meteoric rise of U.S. energy exports. "After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. oil industry sprang into action, pressuring the Biden administration to allow domestic drilling and relax certain regulations so that companies can extract more oil," he told IBT. "The sector is now trying to capitalize on and tap the market created by Russian isolation. As a result, more companies are asking the government to allow drilling on public land by easing regulations to expand the market."Still, the improvement in the U.S. trade balance that followed the surge of energy exports is a mixed blessing for the U.S. economy. On the positive side, the narrowing of the trade deficit helped the U.S. economic growth come out better than expected in the third quarter, preventing the world's largest economy from sliding into a recession. However, on the negative side, strong energy exports helped keep energy prices elevated, feeding into the surge of inflation that has been squeezing family budgets in the last year.
UK Oil And Gas Companies Face $24 Billion Well-Plugging Bill -UK oil and gas companies are facing a bill of some $24 billion, or 20 billion pounds, for plugging unused wells, Reuters has reported, citing figures from Offshore Energies UK, the industry body.There are more than 2,000 old wells and related facilities that would need to be put out of commission over the next ten years. What’s more, the bill will swell particularly fast in the next three to four years, OEUK said, as more and more wells will be shut down.The average cost of decommissioning a well is around 7.8 million pounds, according to the industry body, or more than $9.2 million.This will put an additional expense burden on North Sea producers who were just slapped with a 10-percent increase in their windfall profit tax, which will see them pay 35 percent in taxes on their earnings.According to Reuters, oil production in the UK’s North Sea shelf peaked at some 4.4 million barrels daily in the 1990s and has been in a steady decline since then, not least because of political pressure to reduce the country’s oil and gas production.Interestingly, an earlier report by the OEUK from this month said that the UK needs more oil and gas exploration to enhance its energy security and move the transition forward.“The waters off the coast of the UK still contain oil and gas reserves equivalent to 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), enough to fuel the UK for 30 years, but more investment in exploration is needed to slow down the decline in domestic production to safeguard the nation’s energy security,” the report said.The report’s authors added that more oil and gas production will also help move the transition along through the industry’s commitment to reducing emissions to net zero by 2050
North Sea Authority Launches Another Investigation --The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) has revealed that an investigation has been launched into an unnamed oil and gas company “for flaring and venting in the North Sea without consent”. The NSTA outlined that its probe could result in action being taken, including a fine for the company or even the relevant license “being taken away”. Compliance with consents is both an indicator of good management of fields by licensees and a vital pillar of a company’s social license to operate, the NSTA noted, adding that monitoring flaring and venting and reducing emissions are vital parts of the NSTA’s work to help the UK Government meet the net zero target. The NSTA introduced a net zero stewardship expectation in March 2021, which requires operators to show their commitment to reducing greenhouse gases throughout the project lifecycle. A tougher approach to flaring and venting was subsequently set out in updated guidance, the NSTA highlighted. This provided details of the NSTA’s intent to use its consenting regime to drive reductions and, where possible, eliminate both processes, the NSTA noted. “The NSTA is committed to holding industry to account on emissions to ensure progress continues and is prepared to take action where we suspect a company’s actions risk compromising efforts to meet and surpass agreed targets,” Jane de Lozey, the NSTA’s Interim Director of Regulation, said in an organization statement. Rigzone has asked industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) for comment on the NSTA’s latest investigation. At the time of writing, the NSTA has not yet responded to Rigzone’s request. Venting is the discharging of gases into the atmosphere, while flaring is the burning of gases before they are discharged. These processes are required for safety and operational reasons, the NSTA said, but added that more can be done to reduce the amount. Earlier this month, the NSTA announced that it had opened an investigation into an operator “suspected of breaching one of its license conditions”. The organization also revealed recently that a separate investigation had been opened into whether a company, which was awarded a license in the 28th Licensing Round in 2014, had failed to comply with several obligations, including drilling an exploration well and shooting a 3D seismic survey. In April, the NSTA announced that it had fined Shell UK Limited $62,347 (GBP 50,000) and served it with a sanction notice for breaching five field production consents. In July last year, the NSTA, then named the Oil and Gas Authority, announced that it had fined BP $62,346 (GBP 50,000) and served it with a sanction notice for breaching a license condition by failing to report the progress and results of two extended well tests.
Norway’s oil & gas output slightly higher in October - Even though Norway saw a slight increase in oil and gas production in October compared to the figures from September 2022, these figures are still below the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s predictions. In addition, they are lower than the ones recorded last year. Preliminary production figures for October 2022 show an average daily production of 1 913 000 barrels of oil, NGL and condensate, based on the NPD’s report on Tuesday. Total gas sales were 9.8 billion Sm3 (GSm3), an increase of 0.7 (GSm3) from the previous month. Average daily liquids production in October was: 1 745 000 barrels of oil, 187 000 barrels of NGL and 19 000 barrels of condensate. Oil production in October is 7.3 per cent lower than the NPD’s forecast and 5.4 per cent lower than the forecast so far this year. The forecasts for gas and NGL have been updated in line with the government’s prognosis for production in the revised national budget.’BP Rotterdam Oil Refinery, Europe’s Second-Biggest, Suffers Serious Incident - The BP refinery in the port of Rotterdam, The Netherlands suffered a serious incident this week at its Rotterdam refinery, Europe’s second-biggest oil-processing plant, according to the Dutch union CNV. The complex in the heart of Europe’s oil-trading hub has all but stopped fuels production and employees at the plant who had started work-to-rule action this week have called it off for now.
Equinor and partners to invest $1.44 bln in Arctic gas field (Reuters) - Norway’s Equinor and its partners on Tuesday said they will invest 14.8 billion Norwegian crowns ($1.44 billion) to develop the Irpa gas discovery in the Norwegian Sea. The subsea project aims to produce about 20 billion cubic metres of natural gas for exports to Europe, sending it via the Aasta Hansteen platform some 80 kilometres (50 miles) east of Irpa, the partnership’s development plan showed. The water depth of around 1,300 metres (4,300 feet) makes Irpa, previously known as Asterix, one of the deepest finds to be developed offshore Norway and the country’s fourth producing petroleum field north of the Arctic circle. Production is expected to start in the final quarter of 2026 and last until 2039, the development plan showed. Equinor, the field’s operator, has a 51% stake in the Irpa license, with state-owned Petoro holding 20%, Wintershall Dea 19% and Shell 10%.
Sweden finds explosive traces at Nord Stream blast sites, confirms sabotage — The mysterious blasts in September that made the largest-capacity natural gas pipelines from Russia to Europe inoperable were caused by “gross sabotage,” Swedish authorities confirmed Friday, noting that traces of explosives have been found as part of the ongoing investigation.Prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist and the Swedish Security Service reported that their examination of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea has documented “extensive damage” and revealed several “foreign items” — some with detectable “explosive residue.”But the statements did not address the key questions of the months-old mystery: Who is responsible? And how did they go about it?“The advanced analysis work is still in progress — the aim is to draw more definitive conclusions about the Nord Stream incidents,” the Security Service statement said. “The investigation is extensive and complex and will eventually show whether anyone can be suspected of, and later prosecuted for this.”The blasts occurred south of the Swedish mainland, east of the Danish island of Bornholm. Multiple investigations are underway, with Danish and German authorities also collecting evidence.European officials began using the term “sabotage” within hours of the simultaneous blasts in late September. Seismologists said the datapointed to explosions, not naturally occurring earthquakes or landslides.“These are deliberate actions, not an accident,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters on Sept. 27. “The situation is as serious as it gets.”European leaders pointed to Russia as the only actor with the technical capability and motivation to damage the Nord Stream pipelines with underwater explosions.
Russian gas pipeline explodes near St. Petersburg, video shows - An explosion erupted in a gas pipeline outside St. Petersburg in Russia Saturday, according to a social media post by the governor of the Leningrad Region. "Firefighters and rescuers extinguish a fire caused by a gas pipeline depressurization between Berngardovka and Kovalevo," Gov. Alexander Drozdenko said on Telegram. "There is no threat to the population and the spread of fire to residential areas."The governor said the exact cause of the fireball that emerged in videos on social media was still being investigated. No suggestion of sabotage has been mentioned and Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations said the explosion was likely the result of "depressurization" in pipeline, which officials have further reduced to stop the fire, Russian media outlet RIA reported.Explosion on pipeline in Leningrad, Russia outside of St. Petersburg. (Reuters )Drozdenko said that emergency crew members allowed the gas to burn off and "are getting ready to start repairing the gas pipeline."The governor also looked to assure local residents and said despite the alarming footage circling social media – including videos that showed a substantial fireball and burn site following the loud explosion – the surrounding forest areas were likely not in danger from the fire spreading. Drozdenko said the Vsevolozhsk thermal power plant has been "switched" to supply oil instead of gas to "ensure uninterrupted heat supply."No casualties in the blast or ensuing fire have been reported, according to the local governor.
EU Leaders Unveil ‘Safety Ceiling’ to Protect Against Volatile Natural Gas Price Swings - The European Commission (EC) has proposed a bloc-wide ceiling on natural gas prices linked to Europe’s benchmark in an effort to stanch massive financial volatility, potentially sending ripple effects across global gas markets. In a proposal outlined by the European Union’s (EU) executive branch Tuesday, the Commission could institute a “safety price” mechanism by the beginning of the year that would allow regulators to order financial institutions not to accept prompt month gas purchases that exceed the emergency price ceiling. The mechanism would be triggered if the prompt Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price rises above 275 euros/MWh, or about $83/MMBtu, for more than two weeks. The mechanism would also be triggered if TTF prices are 58 euros or roughly $60 more than the LNG reference price for deliveries on the continent. European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said the policy was “carefully designed” to prevent extreme price volatility while securing the European Union’s ability to keep attracting natural gas supply. “Gas prices in the EU have fallen since August thanks to demand reduction, mandatory storage filling, diversification of supplies and other measures proposed by the Commission in recent months,” Simson said. “But we have been missing in our toolkit a way to prevent and address episodes of excessively high prices. Today, we propose to put a ceiling on the TTF gas price to protect our people and businesses from extreme price hikes.” TTF prices have remained well above historical averages since the end of last year, but they’re currently trading below the proposed threshold. Since Russia began curtailing pipeline flows to the continent and buyers have scrambled for supplies throughout the year, prices have at times surged above $100. At a previous emergency meeting in October, 15 of the 27 EU member countries including France, Italy, Poland and Spain supported some type of price cap. Other countries like Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands opposed the idea. German and Dutch officials have specifically questioned a price cap’s potential impacts on securing supplies and competing with other international buyers for LNG cargoes. To limit a potential freeze on Europe’s ability to secure cargoes, the EC said the policy was specially applied only to TTF futures and only when extreme prices were sustained over a period of time. The Commission also included proposals to deactivate the ceiling by an EC decision if the policies are deemed to impact financial stability or EU gas flows. Policymakers wrote that “market operators will still be able to meet demand requests and procure gas” while the ceiling mechanism is activated by going to the spot market and using over-the-counter (OTC) transactions. In a letter voicing opposition to a price cap, members of the Association of European Energy Exchanges, aka Europex, wrote the shift would cause even more instability during a time of crisis. “If the real price of gas exceeds the artificially capped price of the TTF front-month future, market participants will immediately move trading into the bilateral OTC space,” said Europex Secretary General Christian Baer. “Such a move would not only lead to a significant decrease in transparency, but also poses serious financial stability risks.”
Goldman Explains Why The Only Good Thing About EU's Proposed NatGas Cap Is That It's Unlikely To Ever Be Triggered - In a note to institutional clients Wednesday morning, Goldman Sachs analysts argued that the European Union's long-awaited natural gas price cap plan won't solve the continent's energy shortfall and could make things a whole lot worse. "We have argued that caps to retail gas (and electricity) prices without an associated cap to demand would not only not solve the gas deficit in Europe but would also risk making this deficit worse by incentivizing incremental gas consumption vs what we would observe without caps," analysts Samantha Dart, Daniel Moreno, Jeffrey Currie, and Annalisa Schiavon wrote in the note. They said the EU's proposed price cap for Dutch NatGas benchmark TTF of around 275 euros (~$272) per megawatt hour would spark even more market gyrations, something we noted yesterday. However, they were confident the cap wouldn't be triggered. Even though the EU might have put a lot of thought into its failsafe plan to shield households and businesses from soaring NatGas prices this winter, Goldman's top commodity analysts listed some of the top reasons the cap would likely perpetuate the crisis:
- 1. Further reducing liquidity in an already liquidity-poor market. Triggering the cap would reduce the expected reliability of the price signal offered by the exchange, hence incentivizing trade flows to move away from the exchange and to over-the-counter (OTC) markets.
- 2. Increased risk of a reduction in gas supply. The proposed price cap is supposed to be applied to prompt contracts. As a result, should the cap be triggered, gas suppliers would be incentivized to, at the margin, reduce volumes sold in the next month in favor of volumes further out in the forward curve, at non-capped gas prices. This can exacerbate near-term tightness in the market.
- 3. Disruption of commercial settlements and risk management. A cap would potentially impact settlement prices for existing contracts and the value of existing hedges. This can interfere with the effectiveness of risk-management policies by market participants, either by de-valuing previously layered hedges (and hence, de-valuing the companies that acted to protect themselves against higher gas/electricity prices) or by discouraging future hedges.
The one positive component of this price cap proposal in our view is that we see the elevated threshold required to trigger it as unlikely to be met: both TTF reaching 275 EUR/MWh sustained for two weeks and the TTF Spot - LNG price spread reaching 58 EUR/MWh sustained for 10 days. Neither condition has been met this year, and neither is in our base case for 2023.Importantly, we note that, h owever unlikely, there are fundamental developments that could lend enough support to TTF gas prices to trigger the cap. As we discussed recently , a one-standard-deviation colder-than-average remainder of winter could take Sum23 TTF prices to 250 EUR/MWh. If any meaningful LNG supply disruption, like the ongoing 60 mcm/d Freeport outage, is added to such a scenario, the 275 EUR threshold could easily be reached. So with a price cap so high, the analysts noted, "the only good thing about the proposed TTF cap is it's unlikely to be triggered."
Europe's gas price cap leaves some nations dismayed, saying it's far too high - Several EU member states are not happy with the bloc's proposed cap on natural gas prices — at 275 euros per megawatt hour — which aims to prevent sky-high costs for consumers.Introducing a cap on gas prices has been one of the more controversial measures for Europe amid an acute energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.The 27 EU leaders gave political backing to the idea in late October, after several months of discussions. But, a handful of nations are demanding concrete safeguards before greenlighting the proposal, while others say the cap is too high."A price cap at the levels that the commission is proposing is not in fact a price cap," Kostas Skrekas, Greece's environment and energy minister, told CNBC's Julianna Tatelbaum Tuesday, hours after the proposed level was set by the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU."So [a] price cap at 275 euro is not a price cap, nobody can, can stand buying gas at this expensive price for a long time. We surely believe that the price cap below 200 euro, between 150 and 200 euro would be more realistic," he added.EU energy ministers are due to meet Thursday to debate the price cap proposal.Poland, Greece, Belgium and Spain are among the nations supporting the cap. The Netherlands and Germany have been more skeptical about the benefits of the measure. Presenting a cap that looks tough to implement, in practice, could be a way for the European Commission to bring all the 27 nations together on the issue."It will be a meeting with grumpy people," an EU official, working for one of the member states and who preferred to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the discussions, told CNBC regarding the upcoming meeting.The same official said the commission needs to present further guarantees on how the measure will not distort markets.Speaking at a press conference Tuesday, Kadri Simson, the European commissioner for energy, said the proposal is "balanced" and it will help the bloc avoid excessively high prices.
Did the Ukraine War kill 'Natural Gas?' Solar Power is 10 times Cheaper over the long Term --The independent energy research firm Rystad Energy, headquartered in Oslo, has found that it would be ten times less expensive over the long run to install solar farms than to continue to operate gas-fired electricity plants in Europe. Although the Ukraine War has been good for petroleum and fossil gas prices and sales in the short term, future historians may see it as the nail in the coffin of hydrocarbons. Countries such as Germany that grew dependent on Russian fossil gas are now deeply regretting it. They are trying to turn quickly to Liquefied Natural Gas, for which they are putting in terminals, since that can be shipped by sea.There is not, however, at the moment very much elasticity in the global supply of fossil gas, so that prices may remain high. Those high prices are one cause for the increasing relative affordability of new wind and solar plants. Geopolitical considerations now also play a role in making the move to solar more urgent. Germany cannot afford to depend on outside suppliers, whether Russia or Algeria, for so vital a sector of its economy, since the world of hydrocarbons is volatile and prone to wars and disruptions.The spike in fossil gas prices this summer and fall in Europe is unprecedented. At one point in August it was about $730 per megawatt hour. That is ten times more than the levelized cost of solar. Rystad estimates that the gas price will settle at $156 per MWh in the medium term, which is three times the levelized cost of solar. Unless you like wasting money, the conclusion is clear. You’d be crazy not to put in a lot of new solar.And Europeans clearly recognize this reality. Rystad says that 50 gigawatts of new wind and solar are planned to be commissioned in 2023.It is estimated that existing wind and solar installations, which are up 13% over 2021, saved Europe $11.46 billion this spring and summer over fossil gas.Rystad makes an interesting proposal. Divert money from fossil gas and invest it in solar farms instead. By 2028 your investment will have more than paid for itself, they conclude.
EUROPE GAS-Prices rise on concerns about imports from Norway, United States -(Reuters) - British prompt gas prices rose on Tuesday morning amid increased supply concerns as Norwegian flows dropped and markets embraced for further delays in the restart of Freeport LNG, one of the biggest U.S. export facilities for liquefied natural gas. The Dutch the benchmark front-month contract TRNLTTFMc1 traded up 2.20 euros at 116.80 euros/MWh by 0958 GMT, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. The British within-day contract TRGBNBWKD rose by 8 pence to 118 pence per therm, and the day-ahead contract TRGBNBPD1 was up by 0.50 pence at 112 p/therm, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. U.S. company Freeport LNG has not yet submitted a full request to the authorities to restart a Texas plant, a source said on Monday, raising questions about its ability to meet restart timeline. The company was targeting a mid-December restart for the exports plant which has been shut for six months after a fire. Refinitiv analysts said the gas prices were supported by "news of colder weather spiking U.S. gas prices to a two-week high and that Freeport LNG has not yet submitted a full request to restart a Texas plant could increase risk to EU LNG supplies." UK temperature was below seasonal normal on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv analysts, increasing demand for heating. Norwegian gas nominations to Britain also dropped from 74 millions of cubic metres (mcm) per day on Monday to 66 mcm per day on Tuesday, supporting the prices. Britain's gas system was around 26 mcm under-supplied on Tuesday, with supply forecast at around 278 mcm and demand at around 304 mcm, National Grid data showed. Peak wind generation in the UK is forecast at around 10 gigawatts (GW) on Tuesday, but was expected to increase to around 14 GW on Wednesday, Elexon data showed. Strong wind power output curbs demand from gas-fired power plants. The market was also keeping an eye on the European Commission's proposal for a gas price cap which will be debated by energy ministers from the bloc's 27 member countries on Thursday. "The market is clearly in a wait-and-see position ahead of announcements on EU energy measures on 24 November," Engie EnergyScan analysts said. Europe's gas stocks were 95% full, according to latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, down from a peak of 95.61% on Nov. 13. In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 was down 1.07 euros at 73.54 euros a tonne.
Forecast warmer November to limit Asian spot LNG demand - Northeast Asian countries are facing higher than usual LNG inventories ahead of winter, resulting in expectations of limited incremental spot LNG demand throughout their typically high-demand winter season. Higher than usual temperatures at the onset of winter have likely curbed LNG consumption for power generation to meet heating needs during the month, limiting regional inventory drawdowns. South Korean LNG inventories for November are at an all-time high, much higher over the same period compared with the past three years, according to data from Korea Electricity Statistical Information System. Japan's main utilities had 2.52mn t of LNG stocks as of 13 November, which was higher by 16.7pc from 2.16mn t at the end of November 2021 and higher by 29.2pc against 1.95mn t, the average of end-November stocks during 2017-21. The latest update on Japan's inventories this week was unavailable with a public holiday on 23 November. South Korea's state-owned LNG importer Kogas has requested at least one Japanese utility for temporary storage space over 2-3 days to manage its high inventories, underscoring the extent of the surplus that the country is currently facing. A Chinese national oil company (NOC) is also currently considering delaying the arrival of some of its scheduled deliveries over the next few days, which will likely put off its purchasing plans for the rest of the winter. This may imply that the gas supply glut in China may be more severe than previously expected. High inventories in China have also seen several offers for domestic swaps between gas companies and utilities in the past 1-2 weeks as they attempted to manage higher than expected inventories. The need to keep inventories at at least 80pc full by the end of October, according to regulations laid out by China's main economic planning agency the NDRC, coupled with weaker than expected gas demand with continued small-scale rolling Covid-19 lockdowns has further exacerbated the supply glut in China.
Economy and finance ministers renew quarrel over gas fracking in Germany -Germany’s economy ministry has renewed its rejection of the controversial "fracking" method to produce natural gas, in response to a call by the finance ministry to allow using the technology in Germany. “This does not lead to a sensible answer,” Green Party economy minister Robert Habeck said at a conference in Berlin, according to a report in Süddeutsche Zeitung. He added the technology would lead to all sorts of problems, and pointed to the south of England, where it had led to earthquakes and a subsidence of the ground. Free Democrat (FDP) finance minister Christian Lindner said at the same conference he was in favour of using the technology because it could make a substantial contribution to the country’s future energy security and competitiveness. Habeck acknowledged that it was not fair in principle to buy fracked gas from the U.S., while rejecting the technology at home. But he added the debate was “not helpful” given the particular circumstances in Germany, which included high costs, necessary changes in the law and public resistance.The energy crisis has revived the debate over the controversial gas extraction method known as unconventional hydraulic fracturing – or simply fracking – as the country looks for alternatives to Russian supply. Hydraulic fracturing produces fractures in the rock formation to stimulate the flow of natural gas and increase the volumes that can be recovered. However, it does so by using chemicals and high amounts of pressure, which can lead to environmental damage.There is significant opposition to the technology in Germany. Federal and regional governments in key states have made it very unlikely that the country will allow it even in the current crisis. As a result, it would likely take years until fracked gas could make a meaningful contribution to the country’s energy mix - meaning it will be of little help in the current energy crisis. Habeck and Lindner led similar arguments for months over the future use of nuclear energy in Germany, with Lindner in favour and Habeck against. In the end, chancellor Olaf Scholz intervened to settle the dispute with a limited runtime extension for the remaining nuclear plants.
Moldova accuses Russia of energy blackmail, 'ready for any scenario' (Reuters) - Moldova said on Wednesday Russia had sent no signals that it would stop supplying it with gas next month but that it was ready for any scenario because Moscow was using energy resources as "a tool of blackmail". State-run Russian gas company Gazprom GAZP.MM accused Ukraine on Tuesday of keeping gas supplies destined for Moldova, and that it could from Nov. 28 start reducing gas supplies to Moldova that pass through Ukraine. Ukraine, which has been invaded by Russia, has denied withholding Russian gas meant for Moldova. Chisinau, which is dependent on Russia for its gas, said on Wednesday it would pay for any gas deliveries. "There are no signals that Russia will stop supplying gas to Moldova in December. But the government is ready for any scenario, as Russia continues to use energy resources as a tool of blackmail," Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita told PRO-TV television. Dismissing Gazprom's accusations, Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spinu said on the Telegram messaging app: "Gazprom accuses Ukraine and Moldova of something that is not happening." Moldovan President Maia Sandu said on Monday her country could face a harsh winter because of an "acute" energy crisis that risked stoking popular discontent, with Russia's war in Ukraine threatening energy supplies and pushing up prices. Moldova, a former Soviet republic, has also taken in more re Ukrainian refugees per head than any other country. Although it has strong historical and linguistic ties to neighbouring European Union member Romania, Moldova relies exclusively on Gazprom for gas imports and is largely dependent on Russian energy. Spinu said Moldova had reserved more than 200 million cubic meters of gas in Ukrainian storage facilities for the winter.
Gazprom May Cut Supplies Via Ukraine This Month --Russia’s Gazprom has said it may cut supplies via Ukraine from November 28, Rystad Energy’s Senior Analyst Wei Xiong highlighted in a market note sent to Rigzone late Wednesday. Xiong outlined in the note that the threat comes in the wake of Russia alleging Ukraine is diverting gas supplies intended for Moldova. Ukraine denies this, Xiong pointed out. “After Russia halted all flow via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in September, Europe has been receiving Russian gas through just two pipelines - the Ukraine transit route and via TurkStream, with flows at 42 million cubic meters per day (MMcmd) and 26 MMcmd, respectively,” Xiong said in the note. “Supplies to Europe would be further reduced if flows via Ukraine are halted. However, the impact on prices would likely be muted given that the market has largely factored in the risk that Russian flows to Europe could drop to zero,” Xiong added. In the note, Xiong highlighted that temperatures in Europe turned colder over the weekend but said they have since risen above average again. Despite this, there is an increasing possibility that winter temperatures will drop below average as December approaches, Xiong warned. “This means Europe’s high gas stocks may start to see withdrawals in the coming weeks, lending support to TTF forward prices with the rate of withdrawal impacting the trend for LNG prices,” Xiong said. “EU storage capacity is nearly 95 percent full, with Germany flat at 99 percent and UK inventories also flat at 100 percent of capacity,” Xiong added. To prepare for the winter season, Europe has continued importing high volumes of LNG through November, Xiong said, adding that the region’s regasification capacity now running at about 90 percent utilization.
Gazprom Threatens To Curb European Gas Flows Through Ukraine - Russia’s Gazprom said on Tuesday it could begin reducing natural gas supply to Europe via Ukraine as of next Monday after noticing that part of the volumes through Ukraine are not reaching Moldova. Russia still sends some gas via pipelines to Europe, via one transit route through Ukraine and via TurkStream. Additional reduction in volumes would come just as temperatures in Europe dipped to seasonal or below-seasonal levels after warm October and early November allowed the EU to fill up its natural gas storage.Now Gazprom says that it has noticed some of the gas intended for Moldova under a contract with the local gas firm is being diverted by Ukraine. If the imbalance in gas transit continues, Gazprom will start reducing gas flows via Ukraine on the morning of November 28, the Russian gas giant said today, as carried by Russian news agency TASS.Europe’s benchmark gas prices rose by 2% after Gazprom’s announcement on Tuesday.Europe is more or less prepared to face this winter with nearly full gas storage sites and a steady flow of LNG imports. Still, lower Russian gas supply – although Europe is preparing for this possibility – would deplete gas in storage levels more this winter.The real concern about gas supply in Europe is for the winter after that, the top executives of Europe’s biggest oil and gas majors said just before the heating season began. Ahead of the 2023/2024 winter, the gap in gas supply in Europe will be much wider without Russian gas. Europe will not be importing much Russian gas - or none at all if Russia cuts off deliveries via the one link left operational via Ukraine and via TurkStream - compared to relatively stable imports from Russia in the first half of this year before Moscow started gradually cutting volumes via Nord Stream in June until shutting down the pipeline in early September.
Russia Threatens To Slash Gas Exports Over Ukraine Theft Of Moldova Supplies - Russia’s energy giant Gazprom on Tuesday accused Ukraine of stealing natural gas supplies intended for Moldova by siphoning it off during transit. Gazprom is now threatening to halt deliveries via the key the Sudzha route. "The volume of gas supplied by Gazprom to the ‘Sudzha’ gas measuring station (GMS) for transit to Moldova via Ukraine exceeds the physical volume transmitted at the border of Ukraine with Moldova," Gazprom’s statement said.The allegation further specified that the Ukrainian government stole 52.52 million cubic meters of gas which was intended for Moldova. Gazprom said that amount of gas never left Ukraine's territory while in transit.According to the fresh statement as presented in state media: The Russian energy company further warned that if the transit imbalance persists then it would begin slashing gas supply to the Sudzha GMS for transit via Ukraine from 10 am (7am GMT) on November 28, "in the amount of the daily underderlivery."Ukraine has a sprawling network of natgas transmission pipelines from Russia that feed into Europe, which now ironically enough remain the only key supply route to western and central European countries following the Nord Stream sabotage blasts. Despite the raging war which has been on for nine months, some 42 million cubic metres (mcm) per day still transits through Ukraine via the Sudzha route.Moldova is very heavily dependent on Russia for its energy supplies, and has been suffering rolling blackouts of late. On Monday donor countries gathered in Paris where they pledged hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to help salvage Moldova's energy infrastructure, and to prevent political destabilization at such a sensitive time. Moldova has recently applied for EU membership.Western officials have long accused Russia of seeking to takeover Moldova amid its "special operation" in Ukraine. International media has tended to blame tiny Moldova's energy woes on Moscow and its 'weaponizing' energy.
European refiners oversupplied as oil shortage fears subside --European refiners have found themselves oversupplied with crude as an expected shortage owing to the looming EU ban on Russian oil has yet to materialise. The front-month Brent crude futures spread narrowed sharply this week, reflecting better supply in the physical oil market as fears over the EU embargo on Russian crude begin to subside. Premiums on prompt prices to future prices – known as a backwardated market structure – usually indicate supply tightness. Traders cited Europe’s ability to replace Russian oil with grades from the Middle East, the United States and Latin America while Asia is asking for less crude because of an economic slowdown and increased use of Russian barrels. Brent futures prices have also slumped by about 7% this week, weakening for a second week in a row. “There’s too much oil around,” one European crude trader said. “(European] refiners seem to have overbought in November and December, probably because of fears around Urals,” he said, adding that French strikes and refinery maintenance also contributed to a crude overhang. Russian Urals crude prices jumped in August as traders and refiners rushed to buy as many barrels as possible, fearing the EU ban on Russian oil would lead to shortages. The EU will ban Russian crude imports from Dec. 5 and oil products from Feb. 5. A G7 price cap on Russian crude also comes into effect on Dec. 5. “The expectation of a tight market has not been realised,” a second European trader said, adding that oil from Brazil, Guyana, Canada and the U.S. Midland region was heading to Europe to improve the supply picture. However, he cautioned that supply is likely to tighten again in the new year.
European Refiners Now Have Too Much Oil - European refiners now seem to have more crude oil than they need - with the early panic about Russia’s dwindling oil exports - and the world’s subsequent oil shortage - proving to be overblown. Crude oil traders have pointed to Europe’s ability to source crude oil from Latin America, the Middle East, and the United States as the main cause for European refiners breathing a sigh of relief. Asia, too, has scooped up less crude oil than analysts were predicting, thanks to China’s never-ending battle to obtain the elusive zero-covid goal.Europe’s imports of Latin American crude have averaged 313,000 bpd so far this year, up from 132,000 Refinitiv Eikon data shows. In July, the average was well above that, at 600,000 bpd. From the United States, Europe has taken 1.1 million bpd on average this year, compared with just 800,000 bpd last year. Europe’s Iraqi oil imports are 20% higher from July-November compared to the same period last year.The supply overages are weighing on prices. Brent prices have slumped nearly $9 per barrel since this time last week. One European crude oil trader told Reuters that European refiners “seem to have overbought in November and December, probably because of fears around Urals.” In addition to these fears causing panic purchases, weeks-long strikes at French refineries and a rash of refinery maintenance also curbed the call for crude oil in Europe as runs slowed.Traders and refiners increased their purchases over this summer, anticipating shortages stemming from Europe’s ban on imports of Russian crude oil.That ban is set to go into effect on December 5. Until then, Europe will likely have no issues with obtaining enough crude oil.Post-December 5, however, could be a different story.
Employees Start Strike at Biggest European BP Oil Refinery -Dutch unions started a partial strike at BP Plc’s refinery in Rotterdam, with workers now limiting their efforts to resolving the fault that brought fuels production to a total standstill last week. BP employees won’t cooperate on restarting production units after the fault has been fixed, a representative for the CNV Vakmensen union told Bloomberg by phone. BP has said it was planning to restart the refinery early this week and didn’t immediately respond to an email Tuesday asking about the strike. BP’s Rotterdam refinery is among the biggest in Europe and is located in the heart of the region’s main oil-trading hub. It suffered an uncontrolled outage last week on the supply of steam, which the plant needs to operate. Refinery outages are closely watched currently after a wave of strike action in France this autumn prompted severe tightening in the diesel market. Russian supply is also a key concern. BP employees had started work-to-rule action at the beginning of last week but called it off following the incident. The unions previously gave a deadline of Nov. 23 for resolving a pay dispute with BP. Part of the refinery, BP’s biggest in the region, had been undergoing planned maintenance since September and the restart of at least one of those units also hadn’t gone to plan earlier this month.
U.S., Allies Eye $60 Price Cap For Russian Crude -The United States and its allies are hoping to establish the price level at which Russian crude oil will be capped, people familiar with the talks told the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. Officials are talking about setting the price at which Russia’s crude oil will be capped at $60 per barrel. The group will meet on Wednesday to try to come to some agreement on prices. The G7 plan to cap the price of Russian crude oil goes into effect on December 5, and the EU will ban Russian crude oil imports from the same date. The US-led price capping mechanism of the G7 and the outright ban from the EU has the potential to disrupt 2.5 million bpd or more of seaborne crude oil to Europe. Russia reaffirmed its threat this week that it would not supply any crude oil to nations that operate under this price cap, redirecting its crude oil to “market-oriented partners”. According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Russia could even reduce production in reaction to the price-capping strategy. Last week, the G7 was scrambling ahead of the December 5 deadline that is approaching fast. The EU regulations necessary to navigate the post-December 5 oil markets still hadn’t been drafted or finalized, pending the determination of the actual price level. The price cap plan will hold all buyers within the group to purchase crude oil from Russia only if it can be purchased below a set minimum. The plan looks to restrict Russia’s oil revenues while still allowing crude oil customers to source their oil from Russia. A $60 price cap would be nearly $30 per barrel under the current Brent barrel price, translating into a fine discount for any crude buyer.
Oil Freight at $100,000 Piles Pressure on Crude Markets --Soaring shipping costs are piling pressure onto physical oil markets that are already being hit by uncertainty surrounding a cap on Russian crude prices and weak Chinese buying. Earnings on the industry’s benchmark trade route breached $100,000 a day on Monday, the highest since early 2020 when Covid-19 caused a surge in tankers storing cargoes. With sanctions on Russia now forcing ships to take longer routes -- drying up the pool of available vessels -- oil companies and traders are having to pay ever-higher prices to transport cargoes. That’s adding to the cost of crude. “Shipping has become a tangible drain” on the price of oil where it’s loaded, compounding weak buying from China, said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, a data and analytics firm. In addition, there’s “trepidation” from buyers about the market impact of a cap on Russian oil prices, according to Katona. From Dec. 5, a cap will be imposed on Russian oil prices for companies wanting to access ships and services including insurance provided by businesses in Group of Seven nations. The actual cap level hasn’t yet been set, making it hard for buyers to plan how much they might want to purchase from Moscow. The high freight rates that owners are earning are also reflected in high per-barrel transportation costs for traders. US Gulf shipments to China, one of the industry’s longest-distance mainstream routes, now cost about $6.60 a barrel, Baltic Exchange forward freight data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s almost three times where it was in February. Several Mediterranean crudes, which trade at differentials to the North Sea oil grade Dated Brent, have slipped by at least $1.50 a barrel from a month ago, while more than 20 West African cargoes continue to struggle to find homes even after offer prices were cut multiple times. An overhang of crude cargoes in Europe stemming from labor strikes across the continent “is depressing prompt pricing just as markets are sourcing barrels from further afield in switching out Urals,” Russia’s main export crude, said Kit Haines, an analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. “This means anytime you have an unplanned outage your prompt crude gets backed up pretty fast, and with China out of the market at the moment, there’s not really anywhere to clear,” he said.
Russian Oct oil supplies to China up 16% on yr, just behind Saudi's (Reuters) - China's oil imports from Russia jumped 16% in October from the same month last year to just behind top supplier Saudi Arabia, as state-run firms stocked up before a European embargo over Russia's invasion of Ukraine kicked in. Supplies from Russia, including oil pumped through the East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline and seaborne shipments from Russia's European and Far Eastern ports, totalled 7.72 million tonnes, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed on Sunday. That amount, equivalent to 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd), was steady from September but off May's record of nearly 2 million bpd. State-run traders including Unipec, Zhenhua Oil and Chinaoil ramped up imports of Russian Urals, loaded mostly from European ports, before winding down purchases in recent weeks in the face of imminent European Union sanctions and uncertainty surrounding a Group of Seven plan to cap Russian oil prices. Saudi shipments rose 12% from a year earlier to 7.93 million tonnes, or 1.87 million bpd, versus September's 1.83 million bpd. Year-to-date, Saudi Arabia remained China's top supplier with volumes of 73.76 million tonnes, similar to the same period last year. January-October Russian supplies rose 9.5% on year to 71.97 million tonnes, helped by refiners' consistent appetite for the discounted oil. Arrivals of crude oil from the United States jumped more than fivefold in October from a year earlier, as refiners took advantage of lower prices amid a surge in U.S. exports from rising output and stockpile releases. Malaysia, which for the past over two years has been a transfer point for shipments originating from Iran and Venezuela, almost doubled on year to 3.52 million tonnes. No imports were recorded from Venezuela or Iran. The table below shows imports by country, with volumes in metric tonnes and the percentage change calculated by Reuters.
China Pauses Purchases Of Some Russian Oils Ahead Of Price Cap --While we wait for the US and EU to unveil details of the Russian oil price caps which will be implemented in two weeks (we may have a lot to to wait after John Kirby said that “It’s not just about the dollar figure. It’s about the implementation, of course, making sure as many countries as possible can sign on to that,” he tells reporters, clearly stalling as nobody in the west knows just how badly such a price cap could backfire and send prices soaring), China is not taking any risks as its crude buyers - who have emerged as the biggest buyers of Russian oil in 2022 taking advantage of western sanctions and buying up Russian oil with discounts as large as $30 below spot - have paused purchases of some Russian oil as they too wait for details of a US-led cap to see if it presents a better price. As Bloomberg reports citing "traders with knowledge of the matter", several cargoes of Russian ESPO crude for December-loading remain unsold and there’s hesitation among sellers and Chinese buyers to close deals before more clarity on the exact price cap level is known, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The Russian oil price cap is set to be implemented alongside European Union sanctions on Russian crude on Dec. 5, with those adhering to the measure gaining access to insurance, banking and shipping services from the bloc. The cap is designed to keep crude flowing from the OPEC+ producer to prevent a global supply shock but crimp the Kremlin’s revenues as it wages war in Ukraine. However, Russia has reiterated that it won’t sell to nations that implement the cap, potentially sending oil sharply higher (back in July JPMorgan said that "Oil Price Could Hit "Stratospheric" $380 If Russia Retaliates To G7 Oil Price Cap"). Instead, Moscow will redirect supply to “market-oriented partners” or reduce production, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. In other words, the status quo will continue, since to this day Russian oil makes its way to European markets, only instead of being bought directly from Russia, it comes by way of China or India instead, with Europe paying a substantial premium to where oil would trade if all these artificial trade barriers did not exist. ESPO, or Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil is popular with China’s independent refiners due to the high diesel yield and short shipping distance. Traders said many market participants appear open to referencing the price cap -- even if they don’t officially support it -- provided the level isn’t too dislocated from current prices. Should the level be set too low, however, the party responsible for shipping and insurance coverage -- which can be the seller or buyer, depending on contract terms -- may need to seek services from non-EU providers, thereby complicating the process and drastically changing the economics of the deal. At the same time, and as Zoltan Pozsar explained back in March, adding to buyers' concerns is that banks that finance crude purchases are wary of the looming sanctions and soaring freight rates. Service providers are weighing their possible exposure to the EU penalties and how best to navigate restrictions when they take effect in less than two weeks. Ahead of the price cap, Russian seaborne fuel exports soared to the highest since at least 2017 as the nation’s refiners rushed to do deals before EU restrictions on imports and shipping come into force. The nation’s average daily exports of oil products from Nov. 1 to 10 jumped 22% from the prior month to around 3.17 million barrels, according to estimates from data and analytics firm Kpler.
Russian Crude Oil: China and India easing away from Russian crude oil may be temporary: Russell - There are signs that China and India are pulling back from buying Russian crude oil ahead of the Group of Seven nations' proposed price cap and a European Union ban on imports. However, the more important question for the market is whether any slowing by China and India of purchases from Russia is a temporary factor that will be reversed once participants figure out how to work with, or around, the price cap. China, the world's largest crude oil importer, and India, the third-biggest, have increasingly turned to Russian crude this year, buying cargoes at steep discounts as Moscow sought to keep up export volumes after Western countries shunned its oil. The G7 price cap and the EU ban on imports are aimed at cutting the revenue Russia receives from its exports of crude oil and products and are part of efforts to punish Moscow for its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Russia calls its actions there "a special operation". Chinese refiners have begun slowing their purchases of Russian crude for December arrivals, according to traders and industry players in China. The reduced volumes from Russia for December come after several months of strong imports. China is forecast to bring in 1.80 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in November, up from October's 1.69 million bpd and in line with September's 1.82 million bpd, according to data compiled by Refinitiv Oil Research. It is also likely that Russia will overtake Saudi Arabia as China's biggest supplier of crude in November, with the two leading members of the OPEC+ group having swapped the top spot several times so far this year. Indian refiners are also wary of buying Russian crude beyond the Dec. 5 date of the EU import ban and the proposed price cap. Leading refiners Reliance Industries and state-controlled Bharat Petroleum are pulling back from placing orders, according to two sources familiar with the purchasing plans. The lower volumes for December follow strong imports by India of Russian crude in recent months. Refinitiv estimates November arrivals at 1.0 million bpd, which would make Russia the top supplier for the month, ahead of Iraq's 960,000 bpd. The question is whether China and India will once again turn to Russian oil in the new year, or whether the uncertainty created by the price cap and EU ban will linger. It's likely that both countries will be keen to buy Russian crude, especially if it comes at a steep discount compared to grades from the Middle East and Africa. But there are several issues that refiners in both countries will have to work around. Payment and transportation issues such as insurance may become more complex, though it's likely that refiners and traders are smart enough to work out ways to keep doing business. In fact, the main difficulty may be in sourcing enough vessels to move crude from Russia's western ports through to Asia. Currently, much of the crude China buys from Russia comes from the eastern ports. Refinitiv data shows that of the 3.42 million tonnes of seaborne oil arriving in November, all but 705,000 tonnes came from Pacific and Arctic ports. China is expected to import 705,000 tonnes of Russian Urals grade, which was the main grade supplied to European refiners from the country's western ports. Prior to the attack on Ukraine, China bought only small volumes of Urals crude, but this started to pick up in May, reaching a peak of 739,860 tonnes in June. The question is whether Russia and China have sufficient tankers in order to increase shipments of Urals crude. These would have to come through the Suez Canal, which limits the size of vessels, or take the long route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. India, which is closer to Russia's western ports than China, had stepped up its purchases of Urals after the start of the war in Ukraine. It's expected to import 3.13 million tonnes of Urals crude in November, down from the record high of 3.54 million in October, but well above the 135,000 tonnes from November last year. If Russia wants to boost shipments to China and India, or other potential buyers in Asia, it will have to secure more vessels, or strike deals with importers to use their tanker fleets. It's this constraint that may limit Russia's exports to Asia, rather than the G7 price cap.
Rosneft Gets Super-Icebreaker For Vostok Project --- Russia’s Rosneft has inaugurated a new, nuclear-powered icebreaker to be used at its Vostok Oil project in eastern Siberia.The 173-meter Ural recently completed its tests, the Barents Observer reports, and will soon head to Murmansk and the nuclear icebreaker base there. It will be used exclusively by Rosneft, according to a Rosatom executive.There is a deficit of icebreakers for the Northern Sea Route, the same executive, Vladimir Arutiunian, told Russian media last month. He added that this year will see the launch of one new icebreaker—the Ural—with two more scheduled to be ready in 2024 and in 2026.Vostok Oil, a mega-project in the Taymyr province in Russia’s Far North, comprises several groups of oil fields holding an estimated 44 billion barrels of oil. Initial work on the project began in January 2021. The resources are located close to the Northern Sea Route, which climate change has made navigable for a longer period every year.The total cost of the Vostok Oil development has been estimated at $170 billion over the lifetime of the fields. The main market for the oil extracted from the fields there will be shipped to Asia, hence the focus on developing the Northern Sea Route.Rosneft still has to line up the finance for the mega-project after Western partners pulled out after the invasion of Ukraine. Previously, commodity major Trafigura had bought a 10-percent stake in the project, and there were reports that Rosneft was in talks with Vitol, Gunvor, and Glencore, too.Investors from India and China are now the alternative after talks with them stalled following the oil price collapse in 2020. Originally, first oil was scheduled to flow from Vostok in 2024, but Western sanctions will likely delay that as they feature bans on the export of oil technology and equipment to Russia.
Bulgaria to let Russian oil refinery export despite EU ban - Bulgaria will allow a Black Sea refinery owned by a Russian oil company to keep operating and exporting oil products to the European Union until the end of 2024 despite warnings by Brussels that it is against the bloc's sanctions. The deal between Bulgaria and Russian-owned Lukoil will give an additional 350 million-euro (dollar) boost to Bulgaria's budget, according to estimates by the government in Sofia. "We achieved something very important: from January 1, 2023, Lukoil will transfer all production, revenues and taxes to be paid in Bulgaria, and not, as it was before, in the Netherlands or Switzerland," Bulgarian Deputy Prime Minister Hristo Alexiev said after talks with managers of the Russian oil company. The deal also benefits Lukoil, allowing its Bulgarian facility to partially avoid an upcoming EU embargo on most Russian oil products. "The refinery cannot work if exports are curtailed," CEO Ilshat Sharafutdinov warned. The Balkan country's sole refinery is the main source of gasoline and diesel fuel sold on the Bulgarian market, but half of the production is for export. It contributes some 9 per cent of the country's economic output and employs several thousand people. A shutdown would cause serious troubles to the labour market in addition to the loss of refining capacity. In June, the EU banned the purchase, import or transfer of Russian crude oil starting December 5 and other refined petroleum products from Russia starting February 5. Bulgaria received an exemption and can continue to import crude oil and petroleum products via maritime transport until the end of 2024. It cannot, however, export petroleum products produced from Russian oil in Bulgaria. Officials from the EU country assert that the oil products it exports will be Bulgarian. "The oil products derived from Urals oil will originate from Bulgaria and can be exported," Deputy Finance Minister Lyudmila Petkova said Monday, referencing Russia's export grade of crude. Bulgaria's government argues that the export ban would harm the country's economy as it will accumulate a deficit in its domestic market after Lukoil's refinery stops production.
Bangladesh to increase LNG import by 25% in December -Industries in Bangladesh are all set to get increased gas supply in the days to come after the Government has decided to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by 25 per cent in December. This is as per media reports, which maintained to feed growing demand for natural gas in industries, the Government has planned to increase LNG import by around 25 per cent in December compared to its November and October imports respectively and went on to underline that there are plans to import a total of five LNG cargoes from long-term suppliers during December against its import of four LNG cargoes each during October and November, citing a senior official of the state-run Petrobangla. Speaking to the media, the official concerned reportedly expressed hopes the increased LNG imports will boost Bangladesh’s overall natural gas output and satisfy the industries’ requirements, grappling currently with severe gas crisis, which has hit the productivity hard.
Major shale gas field sees record-high output - China’s largest shale gas field, had seen a record-high output of natural gas this year as of Sunday, said its developer Sinopec. The field in southwest China’s Chongqing has produced around 6.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2022 to date, up 0.5 percent year on year, said the company. Over ten production and construction projects are helping increase the daily gas supply to around 20 million cubic meters, according to the company. The field has also taken various steps to offset the impact of COVID-19 and speed up drilling efficiency, despite the complicated geological conditions of new wells. As China’s first large-scale shale gas field to enter commercial development in 2014, Fuling has become a clean energy source for more than 70 cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China.
China's natural gas output up 12.3 pct in October- (Xinhua) -- China's natural gas output logged robust growth last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The country produced 18.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas in October, up 12.3 percent from a year ago and the growth pace was 7.7 percentage points faster than that in September. In the first 10 months of this year, China's natural gas output rose 6 percent year on year to 178.5 billion cubic meters. The country imported 88.74 million tonnes of natural gas in the same period, down 10.4 percent year on year. China can generally guarantee natural gas supply for winter heating demands this year despite a complex international market situation, a spokesperson from the National Development and Reform Commission told a press conference on Wednesday. The commission will urge localities to stay true to related price policies to maintain relatively stable natural gas prices for households, the spokesperson added.
Eddie Mabo’s lawyer says NT fracking plans could go against native title - The high-profile lawyer who represented Torres Strait Islander man Eddie Koiki Mabo in his historic land rights victory says proposed Northern Territory laws that would allow gas companies to use or sell fracked gas found during exploration could contravene native title laws.Aboriginal and environmental groups have criticised the territory government’s proposed bill as allowing “production by stealth”. They say the gas industry would be able to use or sell methane obtained during “appraisal” activities without needing to secure a production licence or negotiate with traditional owners and pastoralists. The government says the law change would allow companies to use appraisal-phase gas to power local communities, rather than having it vented or burnt at the point of extraction.Barrister Greg McIntyre, who represented Mabo in the historic High Court win that overturned the doctrine of “terra nullius” and recognised land rights of First Nations people, said the approval being sought under the proposed legislation would be a “future act” within the meaning of the Native Title Act.This means traditional owners should have a right to negotiate, and if these provisions were ignored then any application to mine for gas would be invalid.“I suspect that the lightbulb hasn’t turned on and … the government hasn’t obtained advice about whether it might impact on the Native Title Act,” McIntyre said.
Brazil breaks new oil and gas output record - Brazil broke a new oil and gas output record in October, with a total of 4.18Mboe/d (million barrels of oil equivalent per day), according to watchdog ANP. The amount is 3.2% higher than the previous record, set in September – when Brazil produced 4.05Mboe/d – and 16% up from a year earlier. The volume included 3.2Mb/d of oil, surpassing the previous record in January 2020 of 3.17Mb/d, and 149Mm3/d of natural gas, up from 143Mm3/d in September. Production in the pre-salt increased 4.75% compared to September to 3.14Mboe/d, representing 75.2% of the total. Output from production-sharing contracts rose 18% to 995,200boe/d, accounting for 23.8% of the total. The increase was driven by production from the P-77, in the Búzios field, and the Guanabara and Pioneiro de Libra FPSOs, in Mero. The two fields are operated by federal company Petrobras, which produced 2.7Mboe/d in October or 65% of the total. The state-run firm plans to put a new FPSO into operation next month, the P-71, in the Itapu field.
OPEC says Libya topped list of African oil producers in October 2022 | The Libya Observer - The monthly oil market report issued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries "OPEC" said that Libya had topped the list of African oil producers in last October with 1.163 million barrels per day (bpd), while its production increased by 6000 bpd. Libya is followed by Angola: 1.067 million bpd, Algeria with 1.060 million bpd, while Nigeria's oil production amounted to 1.024 million bpd. According to the report, Libya has taken Nigeria's place, which is far from its average of 1.493 million bpd in 2020 and 1.323 million bpd in 2021. OPEC oil production decreased by 210,000 bpd in October 2022 to drop for the first time in 5 months, following the decline in supplies from Saudi Arabia and Angola, according to the OPEC+ alliance agreement. The report says the total crude production in the 13 member countries of OPEC decreased to 29.494 million bpd last October, compared to 29.704 million bpd in the previous month. The decline in OPEC oil production comes as a result of the OPEC+ alliance’s announcement to reduce supplies by 100,000 bpd in October, as the alliance announced a new policy, early last month, aimed at reducing oil production by two million bpd at the beginning of November 2022, until December 2023.
Nigeria drops to seventh on OPEC production list - Nigeria now ranks seventh on Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ crude oil production list, according to the organisation’s Monthly Oil Market Report for November, which examined oil production performance in October. Nigeria’s output was a mere 1.014 million barrels per day in October, ranking seventh after Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Angola and Algeria. While Nigeria’s production was 1. 014mb/d in October, Angola produced 1. 051mb/d; Algeria, 1.060mb/d; Kuwait 2.811mb/d; UAE, 3.188mb/d; Iraq, 4.651mb/d; and Saudi Arabia, 10. 957mb/d. While Venezuela’s production was 711b/d, Equatorial Guinea’s was 57b/d. The likes of Gabon, Libya and Iran did not produce a barrel in the month. Nigeria used to rank fifth, with countries such as Angola and Algeria behind it in terms of crude oil production.
Nigeria’s oil production to increase by 225,000 bpd as SNEPCo completes 2022 TAM – Nigeria’s oil production output to the global market could increase by 225,000 barrels per day, following the completion of the 2022 Turnaround Maintenance (TAM) of the Bonga floating production storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) by Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo). The expected increase in production will boost Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings as the country is grappling with the paucity of funds, scarcity of forex and fluctuating value of the naira. SNEPCo’s Media Relations Manager, Mrs Abimbola Essien-Nelson, confirmed the completion of the TAM in a statement. The statement was titled: ‘SNEPCo’s Bonga FPSO completes 2022 Turnaround Maintenance (TAM).’ She said: “Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) is pleased to announce that the 2022 Turn-around Maintenance (TAM) of the Bonga floating production storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) has been completed. “The 225kbopd capacity FPSO was shut down on October 18, 2022, to carry out statutory inspections, recertifications and other critical asset integrity restoration activities. “The 2022 TAM, which was originally planned for 30 days was completed in 22 days on November 9, 2022, thanks to excellent front-end planning and flawless execution. “Commissioning and start-up activities are in progress and will culminate in the ramp-up of oil and gas production in the coming days.”
PTTEP to pay $129 million compensation for 2009 Montara oil spill - Thailand’s national upstream company PTTEP has reached an out-of-court settlement with Indonesian seaweed farmers, agreeing to pay US$129 million in compensation for the oil spill that followed the 2009 Montara blowout offshore Australia. The oil spill and subsequent slick occurred when the Montara wellhead platform, located in the Timor Sea in Australian territorial waters, had a blowout on 21 August 2009. The leak off the northern coast of Western Australia could only be plugged on 3 November that year, resulting in one of Australia’s worst oil spill disasters. Some 13,000 Indonesian seaweed farmers in 2019 filed a class-action lawsuit against subsidiary PTTEP Australasia (PTTEPA) demanding A$200 million (US$132.3 million) in compensation, claiming the oil had damaged the crops and impacted their livelihoods. “Our experts contend that approximately 6000 barrels per day of oil contaminated the sea,” said Ben Slade of Maurice Blackburn, the law firm that represented the seaweed farmers at the initial hearing. PTTEPA initially claimed that the oil leaked from Montara never reached Indonesian waters, but it subsequently conceded that contamination of this kind was inflicted. An Australian court ruled in favour of the Indonesian plaintiffs in hearings on 19 March and 25 October last year. PTTEPA Ashmore (PTTEPAA) on 13 December 2021 appealed against the verdicts, prompting the Federal Court of Australia to urge both parties to settle their differences in out of court negotiations, in line with Australian judicial practice for class action cases. During mediation, the then Montara operator reached a preliminary agreement with the group of Indonesian seaweed farmers to would pay A$192.5 million, in full and final settlement of the class action, but with no admission of liability under the settlement.
Indonesia to sue Thai oil firm over 2009 Montara oil spill - The Indonesian Government plans to sue PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP) company next year for at least $1.7bn in damages over the Montara oil spill. Last year, an Australian court ruled in favour of Indonesian seaweed farmers whose livelihoods were affected by the oil spill. However, PTTEP, an oil and gas subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand, filed an appeal against the verdict. This would have resulted in it having to pay more than $262m in compensation. In 2019, around 13,000 Indonesian seaweed farmers sued PTTEP Australasia , stating the oil spill had harmed their crops and negatively impacted their livelihoods. They sought $132.3m in damages. PTTEP had then agreed to pay approximately $129m to a group of Indonesian seaweed farmers to settle a class action lawsuit brought by them. According to Indonesia’s environment and forestry deputy minister Alue Dohong, the government is demanding a larger settlement from PTTEP for the harm it caused to coral reefs, mangroves, and marine life, including $281.3m to fund restoration efforts, Bloomberg News reported. An explosion on 21 August 2009 caused the oil spill off the northern coast of Western Australia in the Timor Sea. The Montara rig continued to spew oil for 74 days before a relief well was drilled. PTTEP operated the Montara field when the accident occurred, 250 kilometres southeast of Rote Island in Indonesia. It is known as one of Australia’s worst oil disasters. At the time, Australia’s PTTEP chief executive Ken Fitzpatrick said: “Mistakes were made that should never be repeated. The conclusion of the court proceedings draws a line under the Montara incident, allowing the company to focus on producing safe and clean operations now and into the future.” Australia’s PTTEP had initially stated that the oil discharged from Montara never reached Indonesian waterways. It later admitted that this contamination did take place.
UAE denies it is engaging in discussion with other OPEC+ members to change their latest agreement - minister (Reuters) - United Arab Emirates' energy minister said on Monday that the Gulf state denied that it is engaging in any discussion with other OPEC+ members to change their latest agreement, adding that it is valid until the end of 2023. "We remain committed to OPEC+ aim to balance the oil market and will support any decision to achieve that goal," Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei said in a Twitter post. The Wall Street Journal earlier on Monday reported an output increase of 500,000 barrels per day was under discussion for the next meeting of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, on Dec. 4. The report cited unidentified OPEC delegates.
Kuwait officials discuss OPEC+ oil output decrease with senior US Senator | Arab News --Kuwait’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Salem Abdullah Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and Parliament Speaker Ahmad Al-Saadoun received senior New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez, state news agency (KUNA) reported.During the meeting, Kuwait’s foreign minister reiterated that politics did not interfere with the latest OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output. “The decision was based on technical study of the global oil market,” read KUNA statement.He renewed Kuwait’s contribution to efforts to maintain stability in oil markets.During the meeting, Menendez reiterated the US government’s commitment to achieving safety and security in the Gulf region.Kuwaiti officials and Menendez also reviewed the historical ties between both countries, pledging further effort to advance cooperation to serve common interests. Recently, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait denied reports that there have been discussions to increase oil production at the next OPEC+ meeting.The decision to cut production by 2 million barrels a day will stand till the end of 2023, they affirmed.
Aramco Signs 59 Deals Worth $11B -Saudi Aramco revealed Tuesday that it has signed 59 corporate procurement agreements (CPAs), worth $11 billion, with 51 local and global manufacturers. The deals have the potential to create 5,000 new jobs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia over the next decade and are expected to reinforce Aramco’s supply chain and result in the development of materials manufacturing facilities in the Kingdom, Aramco outlined. The 59 CPAs cover multiple strategic commodities, such as drilling chemicals, wellheads, switchgears, vibration monitoring systems, pipes, compressors, structure steel, fittings and flanges, and air-cooled heat exchangers, Aramco noted. Although Aramco did not publish a full list of the companies it made the CPAs with, it highlighted that it had struck deals with Baker Hughes, Cameron Al Rushaid, Halliburton, SLB, and TechnipFMC. Aramco outlined that the CPAs were signed under the In-Kingdom Total Value Add (iktva) program, which it launched in 2015 with the goal of establishing a world-class supply chain in Saudi Arabia. Since its launch, the iktva program has contributed more than $130 billion to the Kingdom’s gross domestic product, while creating more than 100,000 supply chain jobs for Saudis, according to Aramco. “Our significant investments in a network of accomplished local suppliers strengthens Aramco’s resilience, ensuring that we remain the world’s most reliable energy company,” Ahmad A. Al-Sa’adi, Aramco’s Senior Vice President of Technical Services, said in a company statement. “We are also extensively building commercial ecosystems globally by partnering with some of the world’s top energy, logistics, and manufacturing companies,” he added. Mohammad A. Al-Shammary, Aramco’s Vice President of Procurement and Supply Chain Management, said, “the CPA holders will be our future strategic manufacturing partners for these commodities, and the agreements further broaden our localization infrastructure across the Aramco network”. Back in January, Aramco announced the signing of 50 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) at the iktva forum and exhibition. Although a full list of deals was, again, not revealed by Aramco, the company highlighted that major signings included Schlumberger, Cameron/TechnipFMC/Baker Hughes, and Honeywell. During the same month, Aramco revealed that it had signed 10 agreements during the Saudi-Korean Investment Forum. The deals spanned the areas of technology, manufacturing and finance and included Korea Electric Power Corporation, S-Oil, and the Export-Import Bank of Korea, Aramco highlighted.
Sabic plans project to convert crude oil into petrochemicals - Saudi Basic Industries Corporation is planning to set up a plant to convert crude oil into petrochemicals, capitalising on growing demand. The crude-to-chemicals complex in Ras Al Khair, in the east of Saudi Arabia, is expected to convert 400,000 barrels per day of oil into chemicals, the company said in a statement on Thursday to the Tadawul stock exchange, where its shares are traded.Sabic is the Middle East's biggest petrochemicals producer.The latest project, part of its strategic growth plans, will help to expand the manufacturing of petrochemicals in the kingdom, the company said.Top crude exporter Saudi Aramco, which owns a 70 per cent stake in Sabic, has been investing billions of dollars in downstream projects to extract more value from its crude oil output.Last week, Aramco said it would build a $7 billion refinery-integrated petrochemical steam cracker in South Korea through its S-Oil unit.The steam cracker, which will convert crude oil into petrochemical feedstock, is expected to produce up to 3.2 million tonnes of petrochemicals annually and include capacity to produce high-value polymers.The petrochemicals industry is expected to be a major driver of crude oil demand in the next few decades as consumers increasingly switch to electric vehicles. Globally, the sector is projected to be worth roughly $800 billion by 2030, up from about $475 billion in 2020, according to Precedence Research.Petrochemicals are set to account for more than a third of the growth in oil demand to 2030, and nearly half to 2050, ahead of lorries, aviation and shipping, according to the International Energy Agency.Their production is also poised to consume an additional 56 billion cubic metres of natural gas by 2030, equivalent to about half of Canada’s total gas consumption today, the energy agency said.“Sabic affirms its commitment to continue developing crude oil to chemicals technologies, which contributes to increasing cost efficiencies and value creation opportunities in the energy and chemical industry on a larger scale,” the company said on Thursday.
Inside the Saudi Strategy to Keep the World Hooked on Oil - The New York Times - Shimmering in the desert is a futuristic research center with an urgent mission: Make Saudi Arabia’s oil-based economy greener, and quickly. The goal is to rapidly build more solar panels and expand electric-car use so the kingdom eventually burns far less oil.But Saudi Arabia has a far different vision for the rest of the world. A major reason it wants to burn less oil at home is to free up even more to sell abroad. It’s just one aspect of the kingdom’s aggressive long-term strategy to keep the world hooked on oil for decades to come and remain the biggest supplier as rivals slip away.In recent days, Saudi representatives pushed at the United Nations global climate summit in Egypt to block a call for the world to burn less oil, according to two people present at the meeting, saying that the summit’s final statement “should not mention fossil fuels.” The effort prevailed: After objections from Saudi Arabia and a few other oil producers, the statement failed to include a call for nations to phase out fossil fuels.The kingdom’s plan for keeping oil at the center of the global economy is playing out around the world in Saudi financial and diplomatic activities, as well as in the realms of research, technology and even education. It is a strategy at odds with the scientific consensus that the world must swiftly move away from fossil fuels, including oil and gas, to avoid the worst consequences of global warming.The dissonance cuts to the heart of the Saudi kingdom. The government-controlled oil company, Saudi Aramco, already produces one out of every 10 of the world’s barrels of oil and envisions a world where it will be selling even more. Yet climate change and rising temperatures are already threatening life in the desert kingdom like few other places in the world.Saudi Aramco has become a prolific funder of research into critical energy issues, financing almost 500 studies over the past five years, including research aimed at keeping gasoline cars competitive or casting doubt on electric vehicles, according to the Crossref database, which tracks academic publications. Aramco has collaborated with the United States Department of Energy on high-profile research projects including a six-year effort to develop more efficient gasoline and engines, as well as studies on enhanced oil recovery and other methods to bolster oil production.Aramco also runs a global network of research centers including a lab near Detroit where it is developing a mobile “carbon capture” device — equipment designed to be attached to a gasoline-burning car, trapping greenhouse gases before they escape the tailpipe. More widely, Saudi Arabia has poured $2.5 billion into American universities over the past decade, making the kingdom one of the nation’s top contributors to higher education. Saudi interests have spent close to $140 million since 2016 on lobbyists and others to influence American policy and public opinion, making it one of the top countries spending on U.S. lobbying, according to disclosures to the Department of Justice tallied by the Center for Responsive Politics. Much of that has focused on bolstering the kingdom’s overall image, particularly after the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 by Saudi operatives. But the Saudi effort has also extended to building alliances in American Corn Belt states that produce ethanol — a product also threatened by electric cars
Oil prices retreat as investor sentiment darkens: Kemp (Reuters) - Oil prices were hit by an abrupt reversal of sentiment last week, with investors selling at the fastest rate for four months, as the economic outlook worsened and fears eased that the G7 price cap on Russian crude would disrupt its exports. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 59 million barrels of the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Nov. 15, the fastest rate since the week ended July 5. The selling came after fund managers had been buyers in five of the previous six weeks, purchasing a total of 169 million barrels, according to exchange and regulatory position records. The most recent week saw sales concentrated in Brent (-30 million barrels) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (-19 million) with lighter sales in European gas oil (-5 million), U.S. gasoline (-4 million) and U.S. diesel (-4 million). Investors had been steadily accumulating bullish long positions in petroleum, especially crude, expecting OPEC⁺ output cuts and the price cap to reduce supplies more than the economic slowdown reduces demand. But that confidence was dented last week as the economic outlook across Europe and Asia worsened while traders became convinced the cap would have little impact on oil supplies owing to widespread avoidance and evasion. At the same time, China grappled with the largest outbreak of coronavirus cases for six months, with no sign of an early exit from the cycle of lockdowns, which will continue to depress oil consumption. As a result, Brent futures prices and calendar spreads retreated as traders prepared for a relatively hard landing for the global economy which will likely cut oil consumption absolutely or at least relative to the previous trend.
Oil prices ease to trade near 2-month lows on China demand fears - Oil prices dropped to trade near two-month lows on Monday, having earlier slid by around $1 a barrel, as supply fears receded while concerns over fuel demand from China and U.S. dollar strength weighed on prices. Brent crude futures for January had slipped 65 cents, or 0.7%, to $86.97 a barrel by 1000 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December were at $79.71 a barrel, down 37 cents or 0.5%, ahead of the contract's expiry later on Monday. The more active January contract was down 50 cents or 0.6% to $79.61 a barrel. Both benchmarks closed Friday at their lowest since Sept. 27, extending losses for a second week, with Brent down 9% and WTI 10% lower. "Apart from the weakened demand outlook due to China's COVID curbs, a rebound in the U.S. dollar today is also a bearish factor for oil prices," said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng. "Risk sentiment becomes fragile as all the recent major countries' economic data point to a recessionary scenario, especially in the UK and euro zone," she said, adding that hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve last week also sparked concerns over the U.S. economic outlook. New COVID case numbers in China remained close to April peaks as the country battles outbreaks nationwide and in major cities. Schools in some districts in the capital Beijing switched to online classes on Monday after officials asked residents to stay home, while the southern city of Guangzhou ordered a five-day lockdown for its most populous district. The front-month Brent crude futures spread narrowed sharply last week while WTI flipped into contango, reflecting dwindling supply concerns. Meanwhile expectations of further interest rate rises elsewhere have elevated the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors.
Oil prices waffle on conflicting OPEC+ output reports - Oil prices were down on Monday, but reversed some losses after hitting their lowest since early January on conflicting reports about whether Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producers are considering a half-million barrel daily output increase.Brent crude futures for January fell $1.41, or 1.6%, to $86.21 a barrel by 12:16 p.m. EST (1716 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December were down $1.69, or 2.1%, at $78.39 ahead of the contract’s expiry later on Monday. Both benchmarks had plunged by more than $5 a barrel earlier in the session after the Wall Street Journal reported an increase of up to 500,000 barrels per day will be considered at the OPEC+ meeting on Dec. 4. Oil pared some losses following a Saudi state news agency report that the kingdom was not discussing such a boost. “It’s hard to believe they’re going into a market that is basically trading in contango,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, referring to the effect of current oil futures trading at a discount to later dated contracts. “That’s playing with fire.” The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, recently cut production targets and de facto leader Saudi Arabia’s energy minister was quoted this month as saying the group will remain cautious.
Oil Rebounds After Saudis Deny WSJ Report On OPEC Production Hike - The first question that comes to mind (as oil already tests multi-month lows) is - why would they do this? The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producers are discussing an output increase, the group’s delegates said... An increase of up to 500,000 barrels a day is now under discussion for OPEC+’s Dec. 4 meeting, delegates said. The move would come a day before the European Union has said it would impose an embargo on Russian oil and the Group of Seven wealthy nations’ plans to launch a price cap on Russian crude sales, potentially taking petroleum supplies off the market. Any output increase would mark a partial reversal of a controversial decision last month to cut production by 2 million barrels a day at the most recent meeting.The reaction was swift and obvious as WTI tumbled $2 back to a %77 handle... We are sure it just a coincidence that this report hits days after the Biden administration grants immunity to MbS over the brutal assassination of reporter Jamal Khashoggi. Even WSJ admits it is an unusual time for OPEC+ to consider a production increase, with global oil prices falling more than 10% since the first week of November. Update (1205ET): Well that actually took a little longer than we expected......but sure enough, the Saudis have come out with a statement denying the report of discussions about an OPEC+ oil output hike.WTI immediately soared on the headline... Additionally, the Saudi oil minister reiterated that the current OPEC+ deal will continue until the end of 2023 and that it is ready to intervene in the market if necessary (i.e. cut production further should prices plummet).“OPEC+ does not discuss any decisions ahead of its meetings,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a statement. “The current cut of 2 million barrels per day by OPEC+ continues until the end of 2023 and if there is a need to take further measures by reducing production to balance supply and demand, we always remain ready to intervene.”
Oil price collapse: Saudis, Russians rush to market’s rescue, 2 weeks early -- There are another two weeks to go for the OPEC+ meeting, but the Saudis and Russians have decided not to sit back and let the market collapse continue. In an urgent response to a Wall Street Journal story on Monday, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman denied that the 23-nation oil producing alliance under his charge was working on a production hike of 500,000 barrels per day to announce at OPEC+’s Dec. 4 meeting. If the WSJ report had been true, it would have been a pivot to the 2-million-barrel per day cut that OPEC+ had announced for November. It would have been a hike small in barrels, yet huge in goodwill, doing wonders for Saudi-U.S. relations but, unfortunately, further hammering already free-falling crude prices. Both New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude, or WTI, the benchmark for U.S. crude, and London's Brent, the global gauge for oil, hit their lowest since the beginning of the year in Monday’s early trading, partly based on the WSJ story. But the report wasn’t true, Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz said in a statement issued by state news agency SPA. “It is well-known that OPEC+ does not discuss any decisions ahead of the meeting," Abdulaziz said, referring to the Dec. 4 meeting. He added: “The current cut of 2M barrels per day by OPEC+ continues until the end of 2023 and if there is a need to take further measures by reducing production to balance supply and demand we always remain ready to intervene.” And just like on cue, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Abdulaziz’s closest non-Gulf ally in OPEC+, came in with his own responses to the upcoming Dec. 5 decision by Western nations on a prospective import ban and price cap on Russian oil. Novak reiterated Russia’s stand of not selling its oil to nations that would participate in the price-cap, a plan devised by the West to limit the funding that Moscow could put in its war against Ukraine. The Russian deputy premier also said something else that helped crude prices go back into the positive for the day: in the event of an oil price cap, Russia may also reduce oil production. “Lower supply will be the result from a price cap on Russian oil,” Novak added. WTI, which hit a session low of $75.30 on Monday, marking a bottom since January, recovered most of their losses by midday, responding to the remarks by Abdulaziz and Novak. The U.S. crude benchmark settled at $79.73 a barrel, down 35 cents, 0.4%. Global crude benchmark Brent sank to $82.36 earlier, its lowest since February, before recovering to settle at $87.45, down 17 cents, or 0.2%, on the day. “It’s interesting the coordinated response we’ve got from the Saudis and the Russians in denying the WSJ report and putting a floor under the oil selloff,” “There’s another two weeks to the OPEC+ meeting and they’ve decided there's too much at risk on the price front if they keep mum till then.” Crude prices also entered briefly on Friday into a “contango” mode — a market structure that defines weakness — for the first time since 2021. Under this dynamic, the front-month oil contract in the futures market trades at a discount to the nearby month. While the difference itself might be small, it forces buyers wishing to hold a position in oil at the time of contract expiry to pay more to switch to a new front-month contract. With such negativity in crude now, all eyes are on what the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers will do when it meets on Dec. 4. OPEC+ — the alliance that bands OPEC, or the 13-member Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with 10 other oil producers steered by Russia — agreed at its prior meeting to slash production by 2M barrels per day in order to boost Brent and U.S. crude prices that had fallen sharply from March highs. Right after that OPEC+ decision, Brent went from a low of around $82 a barrel to almost $100 within days (it had hit almost $140 earlier in March). WTI rose from $76 to $96 (WTI was at just over $130 in March). Both benchmarks have lost all those gains in the past two weeks, raising questions on whether OPEC+ will go for even more cuts to prop the market up again. Abdulaziz’s remarks on Monday signaled the likelihood of further cuts, especially when he said the alliance will be “ready to intervene” if there’s a need to “take further measures by reducing production to balance supply and demand”. OPEC+’s 2M-barrel cut itself has not sat well with the United States. Saudi-U.S. relations have hit a low point over oil-production disagreements this year, though WSJ reported on Monday that U.S. officials had been looking to the Dec. 4 OPEC+ meeting with some hope. Talk of a production increase emerged after the Biden administration told a federal court judge that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should have sovereign immunity from a U.S. federal lawsuit related to the brutal killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The immunity decision amounted to a concession to Mohammed, bolstering his standing as the kingdom’s de facto ruler after the Biden administration tried for months to isolate him. The WSJ acknowledged in its report that it would be an unusual time for OPEC+ to consider a production increase, with global oil prices falling more than 10% since the first week of November itself on a rash of Covid headlines out of China. Rising coronavirus cases in China invited new lockdown measures in some of the country’s biggest cities, drumming up concerns over slowing crude demand in the world’s largest oil importer. The country is currently struggling with its worst COVID outbreak since April, which had seen several cities placed under lockdown.
Oil Futures Experienced a Volatile Trading Session on Monday - Oil futures experienced a volatile trading session on Monday, opening slightly higher then falling to their lowest level since early January, only to recoup some of the session losses. This activity followed reports that OPEC and its allies were considering a production increase of up to a half-million barrels per day at their December meeting, followed by conflicting reports about whether the group were actually considering such a move. Trader positions were whipsawed by the reports, as they reacted to the initial report and then as they had to chore up positions. WTI for December delivery lost 35 cents per barrel, or 0.44% to $79.73, while January Brent lost 17 cents, or 0.19%, to settle at $87.45 a barrel. RBOB Gasoline for December delivery gained 1.63 cents per gallon, or 0.67% to $2.4371 and ULSD for December delivery lost 2.08 cents per gallon, or 0.59% to $3.4973. The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producers are discussing an output increase. It stated that an increase of up to 500,000 bpd is now under discussion for OPEC+’s December 4th meeting. The Wall Street Journal said talk of a production increase has emerged after U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration told a federal court judge that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should have sovereign immunity from a U.S. federal lawsuit related to the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Later, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said the country is not discussing a potential oil output increase with other OPEC oil producers. He said “The current cut of 2 million bpd by OPEC+ continues until the end of 2023 and if there is need to take further measures by reducing production to balance supply and demand we always remain ready to intervene.”Genscape reported that crude oil stocks held in Cushing, Oklahoma in the week ending Friday, November 18th fell by 859,875 barrels on the week and by 471,120 barrels from Tuesday, November 15th.According to Refinitiv data, gasoline exports on the northwest Europe to U.S. route have reached 560,000 tons so far this month, already surpassing October’s volumes. November flows to West Africa stand at above 445,000 tons after October closed at just above 445,000 tons after October closed at an eight-month high of 1.65 million tons.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 305,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 25th, increasing available refining capacity by 219,000 bpd. It also stated that offline capacity is expected to fall to 275,000 bpd in the week ending December 2nd.
Oil rises as OPEC+ focus on supply cuts outweighs recession concerns - Oil rose on Tuesday after top exporter Saudi Arabia said OPEC+ was sticking with output cuts and could take further steps to balance the market, outweighing global recession worries and concern about China’s rising COVID-19 case numbers. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on Monday was also quoted by state news agency SPA as denying a Wall Street Journal report that said OPEC was considering boosting output and sent prices plunging by more than 5%. Brent crude rose $1.45, or 1.7%, to $88.90 by 1302 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $1.16, or 1.5%, at $81.20. “Crude oil prices are trying to recover their losses,”“That Saudi Arabia has denied there was any discussion about an increase in oil supply with OPEC and its allies has supported the market today.” The United Arab Emirates, another big OPEC producer, denied it was holding talks on changing the latest OPEC+ agreement, while Kuwait said there were no talks on an output hike. Oil prices waffle on conflicting OPEC+ output reports OPEC, Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, meet on Dec. 4, a day before the start of European and G7 measures in retaliation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which could support the market. On Dec. 5. a European Union ban on Russian crude imports is set to start, as is a G7 plan that will allow shipping services providers to help to export Russian oil, but only at enforced low prices. “The critical risk to a price cap policy is the potential for Russian retaliation, which would turn this into an additional bullish shock for the oil market,” Concerns over oil demand in the face of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and China’s strict COVID lockdown policies limited the upside. Beijing shut parks, shopping malls and museums on Tuesday and more Chinese cities resumed mass COVID testing. The Chinese capital on Monday warned that it is facing its most severe challenge of the pandemic and tightened rules for entering the city.
Oil Futures Rise as Traders Monitor Price Cap Negotiations -- Following Monday's volatile session, oil futures nearest delivery advanced on Tuesday. The gains came after Saudi Arabia's energy minister suggested OPEC+ could in fact cut oil production next month, dismissing reports of a surprise output increase, while markets await an expected announcement of a G7 price cap on Russian oil shipments that could potentially disrupt oil flows from Russian ports. European Union and G7 nations are set to announce on Wednesday a long-expected price cap on Russian oil exports, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Early indications suggest EU leaders proposed adding a new transition period for loadings of Russian crude before an embargo kicks in on Dec. 5, ensuring no short-term supply interruptions. The exact level of a price cap is yet to be decided by G7 leaders but most likely will be a fixed price between $60 and $65 per barrel (bbl). The price of Urals, the Russian crude benchmark, is currently trading in roughly the same price range. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak reiterated Moscow's official position that it will cut oil exports to any country that participates in the price cap mechanism. The cap would ban companies from providing shipping and other maritime services, such as insurance, brokering and financial assistance, needed to transport Russian oil anywhere in the world unless the oil is sold below the agreed price level. At the same time, some analysts claim Moscow might have amassed enough ships to keep its oil exports at current levels. Independent industry data showed Russia has secured 18 very large crude carriers, 32 Aframax and 19 smaller tankers in what is known as a "shadow fleet" of older vessels that were acquired over the past several months. Earlier in the session, oil futures got a leg up from comments by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, who denied reports suggesting the kingdom was considering a 500,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) production increase in December, which would have partially reversed a 2 million-bpd production cut introduced in October that took effect this month. The representative from the United Arab Emirates also said it has not discussed changing the bloc's last agreement. OPEC+ meets next on Dec. 4. Despite Tuesday's higher settlements, sentiment in the oil market remains overwhelmingly bearish due to China's surging COVID-19 caseload and new quarantine measures in the country's largest cities. Beginning Thursday, Nov. 24, Beijing will require negative COVID testing results within 48 hours for entering public places including shopping malls, hotels, government buildings and factories. In addition to deaths caused by the virus, the city reported 154 symptomatic new locally transmitted COVID-19 infections and 808 asymptomatic cases, local government authorities said Monday. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate futures for January delivery added $0.91 to $80.95 per bbl, with January Brent futures on ICE gained $0.91 to $88.36 per bbl. December RBOB futures on NYMEX rallied $0.1034 to $2.5405 per gallon, with December ULSD futures declining $0.0260 to $3.4713 per gallon.
Goldman cuts oil forecast on 'lack of clarity' over G-7 Russia oil price cap, China Covid outbreaks - Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast by $10 to $100 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2022, citing rising Covid concerns in China and lack of clarity over the Group of Seven nations' plan to cap Russian oil prices."The market is right to be anxious about forward fundamentals, due to significant Covid cases in China and a lack of clarity on the implementation of the G7's price cap," Goldman economists including Jeffrey Currie said in a note, adding that more lockdowns in China would be equivalent to the deep production cuts imposed by OPEC+ of 2 million barrels a day.China recorded recorded three Covid deaths over the weekend, the country's first deaths from the virus since May this year.China's capital Beijing tightened Covid measures in the last three days as the local case count climbed to several hundred per day.The economists added that the possibility of more lockdowns in the world's top importer of oil will dent demand from it even further.
Crude oil prices climb on Russia supply uncertainty; Brent hits $88.61/bbl - Oil prices rose in early trade on Wednesday after industry data showed US crude stockpiles fell more sharply than expected last week, highlighting supply tightness ahead of a looming European Union ban and G7 price cap on Russian oil. Brent crude LCOc1 futures gained 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $88.61 a barrel at 0101 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures rose 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $81.30 a barrel. Both benchmark contracts rose about 1% in the previous session as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Algeria reinforced comments from Saudi Arabia's energy minister that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together called OPEC+, were not considering boosting oil output. OPEC+ next meets to review output on Dec. 4. Uncertainty over how Russia will respond to plans by the Group of Seven (G7) nations to cap Russian oil prices further supported the market, analysts said. The price cap, yet to be announced but due to be in place from Dec. 5, will probably be adjusted a few times a year, a senior US Treasury official said on Tuesday. "Traders closely monitor Russia's exports and will look for how much they might trim the nation's foreign sales in retaliation, which could be a bullish fillip for oil prices," SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said in a note to clients. Buoying prices on Wednesday, US crude inventories fell by about 4.8 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 18, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed, according to market sources. Analysts polled by Reuters on average had expected a 1.1 million barrel drawdown in crude inventories. However, on a bearish note, API data showed distillate stocks, which include heating oil and jet fuel, rose by about 1.1 million barrels compared with analysts' expectations for a drop of 600,000 barrels.
Oil Falls 2% on Signs EU Softening Russian Oil Sanctions - - Oil futures fell more than 2% early Wednesday on indications European Union and G7 nations are softening the language dictating looming price cap regulations on Russian oil exports in an apparent effort to cause minimal disruption to Russian oil trade this winter. Ambassadors from the 27 European countries, G7 nations and the United States are currently discussing a maritime ban on providing shipping and other services for Russian oil shipments unless they fall under a certain price level. The aim of this measure is to take advantage of Western control of the world's maritime insurance, financing, and shipping services to starve Vladimir Putin's regime of revenues to conduct the war in Ukraine. However, that price level could be as high as $75 barrel (bbl), according to media reports published Wednesday morning, which is well above the current price of $60 bbl for Urals, the Russian crude benchmark, now trading on the global market. Russians were forced to offer steep discounts against the global Brent crude benchmark to sell oil even to their loyal customers in Asia amid a backlash for dealing with Putin's regime. Additionally, EU leaders have reportedly proposed adding a new transition period for loadings of Russian crude before an embargo kicks in on Dec. 5, ensuring no short-term supply interruptions. The softening of the language for the price cap comes after several threats were made by the Russian government that Moscow would cut all oil exports to any country that participates in the measure, which could further stoke price volatility and inflation in the West. Additionally, Russian energy giant Gazprom threatened to cut all gas shipments sent via Ukraine as early as next week just as cold winter weather descends upon the region that could see Europeans start tapping storage. At the same time, some analysts claim Moscow might have amassed enough ships to keep its oil exports at current levels even if it rebuffs the G7 price cap. Independent industry data show Russia has secured 18 very large crude carriers, 32 Aframax and 19 smaller tankers in what is known as a "shadow fleet" of older vessels that were acquired over the past several months. This week's volatility in the oil market also follows comments by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, who denied reports suggesting the kingdom was considering a 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) production increase in December, which would have partially reversed a 2 million bpd production cut introduced in October. The representative from the United Arab Emirates also said it has not discussed changing the bloc's last agreement. OPEC+ meets next on Dec. 4. Wednesday's move lower came despite the American Petroleum Institute reporting late Tuesday U.S. crude oil stockpiles tumbled 4.8 million bbl last week, nearly six times above consensus for an 800,000 bbl drawdown. If confirmed by official data, this would follow a 5.4 million bbl fall in domestic crude oil inventories for the second week of November. Near 7:15 a.m. EST, WTI futures for January delivery dropped $1.66 to $79.30 bbl, with January Brent futures on ICE falling $2.07 to $86.32 bbl. December RBOB futures on NYMEX declined $0.0696 to $2.4709 gallon, with December ULSD futures falling $0.0213 to $3.4500 gallon.
WTI Extends Losses After Big Product Inventory Builds - Oil prices are tumbling this morning amid Europe's Russian Oil Price Cap scheme discussions about a price cap between $65 and $70 and rapidly spreading lockdowns across China impacting demand.“At current price levels, the plan seems ineffective,” “It will be crucial to see the details of the proposed cap to evaluate the price impact.”Beijing asked residents not to leave the city unless necessary, to stem the spread of the virus. API
- Crude -4.8mm (-2.20mm exp)
- Cushing -1.40mm
- Gasoline -400k
- Distillates +1.1mm
DOE
- Crude -3.69mm (-2.20mm exp)
- Cushing -887k
- Gasoline +3.058mm - biggest build since July
- Distillates +1.718mm - biggest build since September
While the crude draw was bigger than expected (and smaller than API), the surge in product stocks is perhaps more worrisome from a demand perspective... Graphics Source: Bloomberg With the Midterms behind them, the Biden admin drew only 1.6mm barrels (the smallest draw since February) from the SPR (now at the lowest level since March 1984)... Crude imports from Saudi Arabia jumped to their highest since June. Inflows from Iraq were also up, recouping most of the previous week’s loss and pushing total imports from the Middle East back above 1 million barrels a day. US Crude production was unchanged last week despite rising rig counts... WTI was sliding to around $77.50 ahead of the official data and dropped to a $76 handle after the big product builds...
Oil Slides Over 3% on Russian Price Cap Talks, U.S. Gasoline Build (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 3% on Wednesday, continuing a streak of volatile trading, as the Group of Seven (G7) nations considered a price cap on Russian oil above the current market level and as gasoline inventories in the United States built by more than analysts' expected. Brent futures for January delivery fell $2.95, or 3.3%, to settle at $85.41 a barrel. U.S. crude fell $3.01, or 3.7%, to $77.94 per barrel. In early trade, both contracts had risen by over $1 a barrel. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, far exceeding the 383,000 barrel build that analysts had forecast. "The increase in gasoline supplies suggests that maybe we're seeing demand weakening or that gasoline is going on the rack ahead of the holidays." EIA data also showed a 3.7 million barrel draw in crude inventories, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.1 million-barrel drop. Prices were hit further by reports that the G7 price cap on Russian oil could be above the level it is trading. G7 nations are looking at a price cap on Russian seaborne oil in the range of $65-70/bbl, according to a European official on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Urals crude delivered to northwest Europe is trading around $62-$63/bbl, although it is higher in the Mediterranean at around $67-$68/bbl, Refinitiv data shows. Because production costs are estimated at around $20 per barrel, the cap would still make it profitable for Russia to sell its oil and in this way prevent a supply shortage on the global market. A senior U.S. Treasury official said on Tuesday that the price cap will probably be adjusted a few times a year. The news added to concerns about demand from top crude oil importer China, which has been grappling with a surge in COVID-19 cases, with Shanghai tightening rules late on Tuesday. Further pressure came from an OECD economic outlook anticipating a deceleration in global economic expansion next year. "On the bright side, the OECD does not envisage a global recession and maybe this helped oil prices and stocks strengthen further," said analyst Tamas Varga at PVM Oil Associates. Price found some support after minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting showed most policymakers agreed it would soon be appropriate to slow interest rate hikes.
Oil Extends Losses As Supply-disruption Fears Ease - Oil prices fell on Thursday to extend steep overnight losses on easing fears of a supply disruption. Benchmark Brent crude futures slipped 0.3 percent to $85.15 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were down 0.2 percent at $77.80. Both contracts fell more than 3 percent on Wednesday as data showed a larger-than-expected build-up in U.S. gasoline inventories. Data released by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories dropped by 3.7 million barrels in the week ended November 18th, larger than an expected drop of about 1.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week versus forecasts for an increase of just 383,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles saw an increase of 1.7 million barrels in the week. Meanwhile, supply-disruption fears eased in the wake of reports suggesting that the Group of Seven nations are seeking a price cap for Russian seaborne exports in the range of $65-70 a barrel, well above the former Soviet Union's cost of production. European Union governments have not yet agreed on a price and more talks are scheduled for today.
Oil steady as Russian price-cap talks drag on and demand lags - Oil was little changed as the European Union considered a higher-than-expected price cap on Russian crude and evidence mounted of challenges to demand. West Texas Intermediate rose 3 cents Thursday after trading in a narrow range and with volumes thin due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. EU diplomats are locked in negotiations over how strict the Russian mechanism should be, after discussing capping the country’s seaborne exports at US$65 to US$70 a barrel. The resumption of talks to finalize the cap was delayed beyond Thursday as more time was needed to overcome the differences, according to people familiar with the matter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the higher price cap being considered may reduce the risk of Moscow retaliating, though it expressed doubt that the mechanism could be enforced. Mounting headwinds in the two largest economies threaten energy demand. In the U.S., Federal Reserve economists briefed policymakers that the chance of a recession in the next year had risen to almost 50 per cent as interest rates climb. In China, officials are pressing on with aggressive efforts to check the spread of Covid-19, ordering lockdowns and movement curbs as daily virus cases swelled to near 30,000 -- the most during the pandemic. “A static price in general just doesn’t work,” “They’re trying to have the best of both worlds. Either you depress Russian oil to zero, which global oil markets do not want, or you let Russian oil flow.” WTI for January delivery rose 3 cents to US$77.97 a barrel as of 2:16 p.m. in New York after falling 3.7 per cent on Wednesday. Price didn’t settle Thursday due to Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Brent for January settlement was down 7 cents at US$85.34 a barrel. Crude has tumbled this month, unraveling the gains made in October after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided to reduce production. While the price-cap plan had been seen as potentially supportive of oil should it result in lower output, a high cap may end up having a minimal impact on trading. Key metrics are signaling a weaker market, with WTI’s prompt spread is in contango, a pattern that points to ample near-term supply. Physical differentials have fallen sharply in recent weeks, with Kazakhstan’s CPC crude the latest to plunge on a combination of weak demand and robust supply.
Oil prices fall 2% as Chinese demand worries linger (Reuters) -Oil prices fell 2% on Friday in thin market liquidity, closing a week marked by worries about Chinese demand and haggling over a Western price cap on Russian oil. Brent crude futures settled down $1.71, or 2%, to trade at $83.63 a barrel, having retraced some earlier gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.66, or 2.1%, at $76.28 a barrel. There was no WTI settlement on Thursday due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and trading volumes remained low. Both contracts posted their third consecutive weekly declines after hitting 10-month lows this week. Brent ended the week down 4.6%, while WTI fell 4.7%. Brent and WTI's market structure implies current demand is softening, with backwardation, defined by front-month prices trading above contracts for later delivery, having weakened markedly in recent sessions. For two-month spreads, Brent and WTI's structures even dipped into contango this week, implying oversupply with near-term delivery contracts priced below later deliveries. China, the world's top oil importer, on Friday reported a new daily record for COVID-19 infections, as cities across the country continued to enforce mobility measures and other curbs to control outbreaks. This is starting to hit fuel demand, with traffic drifting down and implied oil demand around 1 million barrels per day lower than average, an ANZ note showed. Meanwhile, G7 and European Union diplomats have been discussing a Russian oil price cap between $65 and $70 a barrel, but an agreement has still not been reached. A meeting of European Union government representatives, scheduled for Friday evening to discuss the proposal, was cancelled, EU diplomats said. The aim is to limit revenue to fund Moscow's military offensive in Ukraine without disrupting global oil markets, but the proposed level is broadly in line with what Asian buyers are already paying. Poland is seeking German support to slap EU sanctions on the Polish-German section of the Druzhba crude pipeline so Warsaw can abandon a deal to buy Russian oil next year without paying penalties, two sources familiar with the talks said. Trading is expected to remain cautious ahead of an agreement on the price cap, due to come into effect on Dec. 5 when an EU ban on Russian crude kicks off, and ahead of the next meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies on Dec. 4.
Oil Declines for Third Consecutive Week | Rigzone --Oil posted a third weekly loss as the European Union suspended talks over a Russian oil price cap amid disagreements between member states. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 2.1% to settle at $76.28 a barrel after trading in a more than $3 range on Friday. European diplomats remain locked in talks over how strict the cap should be, having previously proposed a range of $65-$70. Poland and the Baltics felt the cap was too generous to Russia and now diplomats have postponed discussions until Monday. The cap talks come before an OPEC+ meeting early next month. Iraq and Saudi Arabia’s oil ministers met on Thursday and said the group could take further measures if required to achieve stability in the market. Crude has declined in November, overturning the gains made in October after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies agreed to reduce production. Mounting headwinds to crude demand have stemmed from China’s tighter economic lockdowns and fears of a US recession. “Our balances point to slight oversupply until the end of 1Q,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant said in a note to clients. “For now, the oil market is faced with macroeconomic headwinds.” WTI for January delivery fell $1.66 to settle at $76.28 in New York. There was no settlement on Thursday due to Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Brent for January settlement fell $1.71 to settle at $83.63. The price-cap plan forms part of the efforts by the EU and the Group of Seven to punish President Vladimir Putin for the invasion of Ukraine by reducing Moscow’s revenue, while at the same time allowing other states to continue imports. The introduction of a cap by western countries will “with high probability” have a negative effect on the energy market, Putin said..
Russian troops block US military convoy in oil-rich Syria’s Hasakah region (VIDEO) -- Russian troops have blocked a US military convoy in northeastern Syria, the latest in a series ofstandoffs between American troops and local residents. Russian and American forces have faced off in Syria’s Hasakah region, an area rich in oil fields, several times in the past month. Both countries maintain bases in northeastern Syria.A video published on Twitter shows Russian troops confronting US convoy and forcing them to take another route as the road is blocked by Russian armored vehicles. Few days ago a US military convoy was again forced to retreat from a village near Hasaqa after local residents blocked the road throwing stones at the foreign vehicles. The incident was reported on 16 November near Al-Buladia in north-eastern Syria.A video published on Twitter shows the American convoy being attacked with stones by local residents forcing them to retreat.Stand-offs between US troops and local residents in Qamishli were also reported last month after an American military helicopter landed in a village near Qamishli and US forces reportedly killed a local citizen in an air-drop operation. Local media reports identified the victim as Rakan Abu Hayel from Tuwaimin village in the eastern countryside of Qamishli. According to the reports, he was assassinated and his family was detained. The US Army justifies its presence in Syria, with the Pentagon claiming that the deployment is aimed at preventing the oilfields in the area from falling into the hands of ISIS. However, the Syrian government claims US troops are in Hasakah only to safeguard oil tankers which have been smuggling oil to Iraq. Former US president Donald Trump admitted on several occasions that American troops were in Syria “for the oil”.
Turkey bombs Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq - The Turkish Defense Ministry announced early Sunday morning the start of “Air Operation Claw-Sword” targeting Kurdish nationalist militias in northern Iraq and northern Syria. According to the statement, Qandil, Asos and Hakurk in northern Iraq and Kobane, Tel Rifaat, Cizire and Derik in northern Syria were hit. Mass protests were reportedly organized in many places in northern Syria against the air strikes. People inspect a site damaged by Turkish airstrikes that hit an electricity station in the village of Taql Baql, in Hasakeh province, Syria, Sunday, November 20, 2022. [AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad] The ministry said the airstrikes “were carried out in line with the right of self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.” Turkish warplanes are reportedly using Syrian airspace, which is controlled by Russia, whose government is therefore tacitly allowing the bombings to take place. This operation against the US-backed People’s Protection Units (YPG), the armed wing of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) comes amid NATO war against Russia in Ukraine. According to the Turkish Defense Ministry statement, the bombardment targeted “shelters, bunkers, caves, tunnels, ammunition depots and so-called headquarters and training camps” belonging to the PKK and YPG, claiming that civilians were not harmed. However, according to ANHA (Hawar News Agency), 11 civilians, including ANHA reporter İsam Ebdullah, were killed and 6 people, including another journalist, were wounded in the bombardments. The report claimed that 14 Syrian soldiers were also killed. Syria’s state-owned Sana news agency confirmed the deaths of Syrian soldiers but did not state how many were killed. Turkish Interior Ministry blamed the PKK and YPG for a rocket attack on the Öncüpınar Border Gate in Kilis yesterday, which injured 8 security personnel. Anadolu Agency also reported that four rockets were fired at Karkamış district of Gaziantep province from northern Syria yesterday evening, and that the rockets landed in empty areas. The YPG was held responsible for the rockets in the report. Farhad Shami, head the media center of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG is the backbone, reported that airstrikes destroyed the COVID-19 Hospital in Kobane, the power plant in Derik and grain stores in Dahir al Arab. SDF General Commander Mazlum Ebdi warned in a statement that the conflict could escalate. He said, “We don’t want a big war to break out. But if the Turkish state insists on war against us, we are ready for a great resistance. The war is not only limited to here, it spreads everywhere and everyone is affected by this war.” The PYD added, “Russia and the International Coalition led by the United States are responsible for the atrocities committed by the Turkish state against our people.”
'A Nightmare': Iran Intensifies Deadly Crackdown In Kurdistan Region As Protests Rage - Iranian authorities have intensified their deadly crackdown in the country’s western Kurdistan region, which has been the epicenter of the anti-establishment protests that have raged for months. Human rights groups say government forces have killed more than a dozen people in predominately Kurdish cities in the past 24 hours. The bloodshed comes amid reports of heavily armed troops being deployed in the region. Activists say the violence is an attempt by the authorities to create fear among protesters and quell the nationwide protests that have rocked the country for the past two months. The rallies erupted following the September 16 death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd who died shortly after she was arrested by Iran’s morality police for allegedly violating the country’s hijab law. What began as protests against the brutal enforcement of the mandatory head scarf has snowballed into one of the biggest threats to Iran’s clerical establishment, which has ruled since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. “The Islamic republic is using such intense violence in Kurdistan to silence the protests all over Iran,” Zhila Mostajar from Hengaw, a rights group registered in Norway that reports on Iran’s Kurdish region, told RFE/RL. “The authorities think that by suppressing the protests in Kurdistan they will send a warning to people in other parts of the country,” added Mostajar, who is based in neighboring Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region.Hengaw said that at least 13 people have been killed in mainly Kurdish cities since November 20, including seven in Javanrud, four in Piranshahr, and one each in Dehgolan and Bukan. At least 378 people, including 47 children, have been killed by government forces across the country, according to the Oslo-based Iran Human Rights (IHR). At least 83 people have been killed in Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and West Azerbaijan, three provinces with significant Kurdish populations, IHR said. There were “intense confrontations” between protesters and security forces in Javanrud, a city in Kermanshah Province, according to Hengaw. Videos uploaded on social media on November 21 purportedly showed several wounded protesters lying on the streets amid the sound of heavy gunfire.
Israel gives ultimatum to Russia over Iranian weapons supplies - Israel could supply Ukraine with high-precision ballistic missiles if Russia did not stop cooperation with Iran, according to Israeli media. Israeli Ambassador to Russia Alexander Ben Zvi held a series of meetings with deputy head of the Russian diplomatic department Mikhail Bogdanov, during which the situation in Ukraine was discussed, the Israeli TV channel “Kan-11” reported.Ben Zvi conveyed Israel’s ultimatum over the supply of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles to Moscow.According to a source in the Israeli Foreign Ministry, the head of the National Security Council of Israel, Eyal Hulata, warned Russia against using Iranian weapons – otherwise Tel Aviv could supply Kiev with high-precision ballistic missiles that will be used against Russian units.The foreign minister of Iran, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, stated that Tehran had transferred “a certain number of unmanned aerial vehicles” to Russia before the war in Ukraine.Russia has purchased even more powerful Iranian Arash-2 drones, according to a statement by the Ukrainian armed forces. So far there has been no official confirmation of this information.However, a number of video evidence show Iranian Sahed-136 drones (the Russian modification Geran-2) being massively used in the last months against Ukrainian major cities destroying critical infrastructure.Iran has supplied Russia not only with attack drones but also with powerful surface-to-surface missiles, according to intelligence sources quoted by The Washington Post. These are Iran’s Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar – short-range ballistic missiles capable of striking targets at distances of 300 and 700 kilometers.
Israeli armored vehicles supplied to Ukraine via intermediary - Even though Israel has not officially supplied weapons to Ukraine, Israeli armored vehicles have appeared on the front line in Kherson. Israel has already transferred armored vehicles to Ukraine – GAIA Amir armored vehicles, according to photos and videos published on Telegram.According to Avia Pro, Israel has delivered at least 10 GAIA Amir armored vehicles to Ukraine. To bypass the official position of Israel to not deliver military aid to Ukraine, the exports were carried out through an intermediary country, Germany, according to Avia pro sources. One of these armored vehicles was recently destroyed by a Russian Lancet attack drone.Earlier, Israel stated that the supply of Israeli weapons to Ukraine through any other country in the world does not mean that the weapons were provided by the Israeli side, hinting at the readiness to transfer much more serious weapons to Ukraine if such agreements are reached with Kyiv.Experts say that Israel may soon consider the possibility of transferring other weapons to Ukraine, as the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already stated.Before the parliamentary elections Netanyahu said that if he was re-elected and became a prime-minister Israel would supply weapons to Ukraine. Netanyahu stressed in an interview with USA Today that “we all have sympathy for Ukraine” when asked about possible weapons supplies to Kiev.The Ukrainian army uses the GAIA Amir multifunctional armored vehicles manufactured by the Israeli company Gaia Automotive Industries. Officially, Israel does not supply weapons to Ukraine, and it is not known how the Amir armored vehicles ended up in the Kherson region, as their manufacturer prohibits re-export.The GAIA Amir armored vehicle was first introduced in 2018 and is used for patrolling, personnel transfer and evacuation of wounded troops. The multipurpose 4×4 armored vehicle has protection against mines with a mass of charge up to 6 kg and protection against bullets of 7.62 mm caliber. It is capable of carrying up to 12 soldiers and 3 tons of cargo, with a maximum speed of 122 km / h.
Israel: Ultra-Far-Right Ben-Gvir Given Nat'l Security Ministry - As though KKK took over Homeland Security in US -- The Israeli newspaper Arab 48 reports that the Likud Party of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu signed a deal on Friday with what the paper calls the “fascist” Jewish Power party of Itamar Ben-Gvir giving the latter the post of minister of national security. Jewish Power will also get the ministry of heritage, which oversees religious sites, including, potentially, Palestinian ones or those shared with Palestinians. It was also given the ministry of the Negev and Galilee, which, according to BBC Monitoring, “regulates settlement expansion” in the West Bank.There had previously been a minister of public security overseeing the police, but the post will now be expanded. Arab 48 says that the agreement gives Ben-Gvir and his party centralized control of several law enforcement agencies that had previously been distributed among several ministries. It also creates a new “national guard” force with a wide mandate, which sounds pretty ominous. Ben-Gvir will have authority over Israeli border police, including those in the Palestinian West Bank. He had earlier called for relaxed rules of engagement under which Israeli security forces could use lethal force against Palestinians without let or hindrance.The paper quotes an Israeli official in law enforcement as saying in response, “This matter will turn the border patrol in the West Bank into Ben-Gvir’s private police force in the (Occupied) Territories.”The Palestinian West Bank, under the Israeli jackboot, is already a seething cauldron and is experiencing a low-intensity civil war. Some Palestinians among youth in Jenin have turned to guerrilla violence, while Israeli squatters on Palestinian land are launching increasing numbers of attacks on Palestinians, as the Israeli army either looks on or actively helps. This situation will worsen considerably under Ben-Gvir. Al Jazeera English: “Far-right Ben-Gvir to be police minister in Israeli gov’t”The Ministry of the Negev and Galilee will, moreover, gain control of wells in the Palestinian West Bank. Palestinians’ wells often go dry because Israeli squatters dig deep and lower the level of the aquifer. This step is surreal, since the antecedents of Jewish Power have at times been on the US State Department list of terrorist organizations. Ben-Gvir has been convicted of hate speech and incitement to violence. It is as though Trump had appointed a Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan as the head of Homeland Security or of Customs and Border Protection.
Gaza house fire kills 22: Victims of Israel’s war on Palestinians - A house fire killed 22 Palestinians, including seven children, at a family celebration in the northern neighbourhood of Jabaliya, Gaza, last Thursday night. It was the direct result of the atrocious living conditions created by Israel’s criminal 15 year-long blockade that has turned Gaza into an open-air prison for its 2.3 million inhabitants. The Abu Rayya family were celebrating the return of Maher Abu Rayya, a former deputy minister in the Labour Ministry in Gaza, who had just gained a PhD from Egypt, and the birthday of another family member, when a huge fire ripped through the third floor of their three-story residential building, killing all the celebrants. Neighbours tried for nearly an hour to break down the front door of the building and the apartment door before firefighters arrived. Bahaa Abu Rayya, a relative of the family, told Middle East Eye it took 40 minutes for the Civil Defence crews to arrive at the scene as they were dealing with another incident in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. When they did arrive it was without ladders to reach the third floor, a long enough hose or adequate water supply. They were unable to immediately control the fast-moving fire or evacuate any of the family before they were either burnt alive or succumbed to the fumes. Shocked and outraged by the fire, thousands came from all over Gaza to attend the funeral on Friday. Following the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, when Israel seized the Gaza Strip that had been controlled by Egypt, the Palestinians were subject to ever increasing suppression under an occupation deemed illegal under international law. Even after Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, its de facto occupation—its control of its land, sea and order borders—has continued. For the last 15 years, Israel has subjected Gaza to a strict sea, air and ground siege, after Hamas—the bourgeois clerical group affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood that won a majority in the Palestinian elections in January 2006—forestalled an armed coup by supporters of the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority (PA) and took control of the Gaza Strip in June 2007. Since then, Israel has placed tight restrictions on the entry of most goods and commodities into the besieged enclave, preventing the supply of much needed equipment for Gaza’s hospitals, police and Civil Defence teams as well as construction materials to repair the damage caused by Israel’s repeated murderous assaults on the essentially defenceless enclave. It limits the movement of Palestinians in and out of the Strip, frequently refusing permission to seek urgent, life-saving medical treatment outside Gaza. Israel has been aided and abetted by the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority of President Mahmoud Abbas, which refuses to transfer cash to Gaza, and Egypt’s military dictator Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, whose forces control Gaza’s southern border. Crucially, its illegal actions are supported by the US, Israel’s chief sponsor, and the major European powers. Despite their humanitarian pretensions, all have provided Tel Aviv with the political and diplomatic support at the United Nations that have enabled it to avoid sanctions. This is in sharp contrast to the sanctions imposed on Russia for invading Ukraine. It makes them accomplices in Israel's crimes against the Palestinians. Israel, as an occupying power with the most advanced military machine in the Middle East, has been given carte blanche to inflict unrestricted death, violence and suffering upon refugees trapped in a huge ghetto of its own making. The people of Gaza have suffered the destruction of their livelihoods as well as repeated bombardments, and military assaults over the last 15 years.
Poland blamed Russia even though Polish RAT-31DL radar detected the missile came from Ukraine -- Poland rushed to blame Russia for the missile which fell in its territory on 16 November killing two people. However, new information has emerged proving Polish officials knew very well from the very beginning the missile was fired from Ukraine. One of our readers from Poland sent us important information about the location of Polish RAT-31DL air defense units in the area.According to the information, the stationary RAT-31DL standby radar of the Polish army is located in Labun, 40 kilometers from the village of Przewoduv, where the U krainian anti-aircraft missiles fell. This radar was purchased and delivered from Italy to Poland in 2012. The RAT-31DL radar is equipped with an active phased antenna array with a width of 11 and a height of 7 meters, emitting in the range of 1-1.5 GHz. The RAT-31DL is capable of detecting air targets at a maximum distance of up to 500 km and at an altitude of up to 30 km (a target with an RCS of 0.3 m² at a distance of 200 km, with an RCS of 1 m² – 300 km).In addition, in March, US military units deployed two batteries of the MIM-104 Patriot air defense system at the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport (130 km from Przewoduv), which also monitor the situation on Ukraine’s western border with their radars. Furthermore, NATO reconnaissance aircraft are constantly in the air.On Tuesday evening, a rocket fell in the village of Przewoduv in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine, killing two people. Following the incident Polish officials said the missile was Russian-made. President Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately attacking Poland and wanted NATO to intervene. However, US President Joe Biden denied this information and said that it was unlikely the missile came from Russia in line with its trajectory.Ukrainian President said in a statement he had no doubt that it was not a Ukrainian missile or a missile attack by Ukraine and his country must be included in the investigation.Zelensky referred to the reports he received from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which he, in his words, “cannot distrust.”However, the Polish side has already officially confirmed that the trajectory of the missile indicates its Ukrainian origin. Furthermore, experts have identified the missile which killed two people in Poland as the 5V55 surface-to-air missile for the S-300 air defense system.
“Russia is far from giving up”: the absence of its defeat hastens the peace talks. – “Ukraine has the momentum, but Russia is far from giving up.” This is what the British Minister of Defence,Ben Wallace, stated following the retreat of the Russian army from the west bank of Kherson. There is no doubt that the withdrawal of a superpower army from the capital of Kherson is considered a significant loss and an insult for them – even if Russia is fighting forty countries united in a military operations room which directs the war at the US base in Ramstein, Germany. Moreover, the withdrawal took place a week after President Vladimir Putin declared the region of Kherson to be part of Russia. However, the exit from the west bank of the Dnipro River to the most significant side of Kherson province on the east bank allowed Russia to fortify its hold on all occupied territories. It could also pave the road to a ceasefire negotiation. Washington needs to consolidate its military gains before heading for the negotiating table and insisting on a cessation of hostilities. The US is already discussing negotiation plans after realising that it has set a trap for Russia but fell into it with its western allies. Russia is not deterred and uses around 20 per cent of its professional military personnel (1.1 million men). It recruited additional mobilised forces and is keeping the rest of the army for a potential wider war against NATO. The Russian human losses in the Ukrainian battlefield were rebuilt by a new wave of mobilisation, not by the professional army. The Kremlin is busy rebuilding a modern military to meet the western armies’ weapons and tactics and ramp up the production of more advanced drones, missiles and all guns. This war seems necessary and valuable to the Kremlin on many levels, including refurbishing the army that has not been confronted with a unique experience for decades, meeting the new warfare challenges, and drawing lessons from the last nine months of war against NATO fighting tactics in Ukraine. There is no doubt that both Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin made wrong assessments at the beginning of the confrontation in Ukraine and how it would develop and how it will end. The US administration was looking forward to seeing Russia involved in a long quagmire in Ukraine similar to the Soviet in Afghanistan in 1979 and was confident Moscow would be defeated. This is what a NATO and an EU member state, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban revealed, saying that the US believed Putin would be overthrown and Russia’s economy would be destroyed due to western sanctions and its role in Ukraine. Biden’s expectations are far from being met, and the EU/US sanctions are “not changing the course of the war, and the Ukrainians will not come out victorious”. However, the US has managed to sell its gas four times the market price, NATO nations have become unified, and most of the EU nations are behind the US. All these are undoubtedly significant achievements, but for how long? On the other hand, Russia made severe mistakes from the beginning of the war, thinking that Europe was divided, that Ukraine won’t fight and would behave as in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and expected that Kyiv would declare neutrality. After all, Crimea was dominated by pro-Russian solid sentiments and culture, and only 18 per cent were native Ukrainian. According to the Ministry of Education of Crimea, in 2008, there were 555 schools with Russian as the language of instruction on the peninsula, and between 6 and 15 schools where teaching is in Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar.
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant rocked by 'powerful explosions,' UN nuclear agency says -- Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the surrounding area was rocked by "powerful explosions" on Sunday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. The shelling caused damage to buildings and equipment at the facility, the largest nuclear plant in Europe, but no casualties were reported, according to plant management. "The news from our team yesterday and this morning is extremely disturbing," IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said Sunday. "Explosions occurred at the site of this major nuclear power plant, which is completely unacceptable. Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately. As I have said many times before, you’re playing with fire!"Russia and Ukraine once again traded blame for the attacks. Ukrainian state nuclear operator Energoatom accused Russia of trying "to damage or destroy as much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as possible" ahead of winter, while Russia accused Ukrainian forces of shelling power lines that supply the plant with electricity. Russia has occupied the facility since the early days of the war, though it is still operated by a Ukrainian staff. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russian forces also shelled civilian infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia region on Sunday, destroying 30 homes. In Kherson, roughly 120 miles southwest of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, an oil depot was struck by two Russian missiles on Saturday, igniting a huge fire. The southern city, which was recently retaken by Ukrainian forces, was also struck by tank shells and other artillery. Zelenskyy said that scheduled power outages would also take place in 15 regions and the capital of Kyiv on Monday. "Restoration of networks and technical supply capabilities, demining of power transmission lines, repairs – everything goes on round the clock," Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Sunday.
Ukraine nuclear plant shelled, U.N. warns: 'You're playing with fire!' - (Reuters) - Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is under Russian control, was rocked by shelling on Sunday, drawing condemnation from the U.N. nuclear watchdog which said such attacks risked a major disaster. More than a dozen blasts shook Europe's biggest nuclear power plant on Saturday evening and Sunday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said. Moscow and Kyiv both blamed the other for the shelling of the facility as they have done repeatedly in recent months after earlier explosions. IAEA head Rafael Grossi said news of the blasts was extremely disturbing. "Explosions occurred at the site of this major nuclear power plant, which is completely unacceptable. Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately. As I have said many times before, you're playing with fire!" he said in a statement. Citing information provided by plant management, the IAEA team on the ground said there had been damage to some buildings, systems and equipment, but none of them critical for nuclear safety and security so far. The team plans to conduct an assessment on Monday, Grossi said in a statement issued later on Sunday. Russian nuclear power operator Rosenergoatom though said there would be curbs on what the team could inspect. "They interpret their mandate as having no limits. This is not so," Renat Karchaa, an adviser to Rosenergoatom's CEO, told Tass news agency. "If they want to inspect a facility that has nothing to do with nuclear safety, access will be denied." Repeated shelling of the plant in southern Ukraine has raised concern about the potential for a grave accident just 500 km (300 miles) from the site of the world's worst nuclear accident, the 1986 Chornobyl disaster. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant provided about a fifth of Ukraine's electricity before Russia's invasion, and has been forced to operate on back-up generators a number of times. It has six Soviet-designed VVER-1000 V-320 water-cooled and water-moderated reactors containing Uranium 235. The reactors are shut down but there is a risk that nuclear fuel could overheat if the power driving the cooling systems was cut. Shelling has repeatedly cut power lines. Grossi, asked by French TV channel BFM whether he planned to go to Zaporizhzhia, replied "To be sure", but gave no details.
Heavy Shelling At Ukraine's Largest Nuclear Plant: "You Are Playing With Fire!" -- Concerns are mounting over the potential for radioactive fallout and disaster at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine following large explosions heard at the site over the weekend. Like with prior incidents of shelling and fighting coming near the sensitive facility, each warring side is blaming the other for these latest attacks. "Explosions shook the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine over the weekend in what appeared to be renewed shelling of the facility and the surrounding area, according to the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)," The Hill reports Sunday. The BBC cites local sources who say over a dozen powerful explosions were heard Saturday night at or in the vicinity of Zaporizhzhia plant, which remains Europe's largest nuclear facility. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi called the reports "extremely disturbing" and "completely unacceptable". He urged for fighting to halt there immediately. "Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately. As I have said many times before, you’re playing with fire!"The IAEA said that in prior weeks there had been a "period of relative calm" in the area, which has now ended. "I’m not giving up until this zone has become a reality. As the ongoing apparent shelling demonstrates, it is needed more than ever," Grossi stated.The UN atomic watchdog still has a team of experts on location at the plant, but there's been no definitive word on which side was behind the renewed shelling which risks destabilizing the plant. Most Western media reports have blamed Russia for the powerful explosions which reportedly continued into Sunday, despite Russian troops still being the ones to occupy and oversee the actual site. Ukrainian state energy company Energoatom charged that Russia is "once again... putting the whole world at risk.""This morning on Nov. 20, 2022, as a result of numerous Russian shelling, at least 12 hits were recorded on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant," Energoatom said."You are playing with fire!" Director General of the international Atomic Energy Agency reacted to reports that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is being shelled and said: "whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately."
Ukraine Rejects Alleged Offer Of Short Truce By Russia - It was revealed Friday by the Ukrainian side that the Kremlin has offered Kiev the possibility of reaching an agreement to implement a "short truce". It comes as there are more and more signals from Washington that it's ready to see both sides come to the table for some kind of ceasefire agreement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that Russian officials had attempted the overture, but he rejected the possibility, at a moment the Ukrainian counteroffensive has made recent gains, especially the retaking of Kherson city and many surrounding villages."Russia is now looking for a short truce, a respite to regain strength. Someone may call this the war's end, but such a respite will only worsen the situation," the Ukrainian leader said in a virtual address before the Halifax International Security Forum.Zelensky then reiterated his hardened resolve to not consider the possibility of talks until Russian forces are defeated. "A truly real, long-lasting and honest peace can only be the result of the complete demolition of Russian aggression," Zelensky said.There was no confirmation from the Kremlin side that such a specific offer was actually made. However, Russia has lately reiterated that it has always remained open to the possibility of dialogue. During his virtual G20 address last week, Zelensky issued a 10-point plan for ceasefire, which included the hardline position that no territorial concessions would be made. Despite widespread reports that Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs, has been pushing the White House to get Zelensky to negotiate, other influential voices such as Secretary Antony Blinken and national security advisor Jake Sullivan have said it's "too early".Gen. Milley's position is based on the assessment that forcing Russian troops completely out of the country anytime soon remains unrealistic.
Apartment block in Kiev hit by US-made AIM-120C for NASMAS air defense systems (see photos) The missile that hit an apartment block in Kiev today was a US-made AIM-120C launched from one of the newly arrived NASMAS air defense systems, donated to Ukraine in the last months. Local people shared on social media photos of the wreckage of the missile. Even though Ukraine blamed Russia for the strike, it turns out the missile was not Russian but American and was fired by Ukrainian troops.The fragment shown in the photo has the word LIFT as the American AIM-120C. This is an anti-aircraft missile for the NASAMS systems which were recently donated to Ukraine. By analyzing the photos which Ukrainian citizens published themselves the missile which hit their residential building can be easily identified as American.Raytheon Technologies announced last month that it had delivered the first two of the NASAMS air defense systems promised to Ukraine by the US government. The NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) primarily uses the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM).The missile is also used by fighter jets in air-to-air applications. Procured to 40 countries, the AMRAAM missile has been integrated onto the F-15A/B/C/D/E Eagle/Strike Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, F/A-18 Super Hornet, F-22 Raptor, Eurofighter Typhoon, JAS-39 Gripen, Tornado and Harrier. The newest version of AIM is operational on all F-35 Joint Strike Fighter variants. It is the only radar-guided, air-to-air missile cleared for be deployed on the F-35.
Another US-made AGM-88 HARM hit residential building in Donetsk -Another US-made missile – AGM-88 HARM, fired by Ukrainian forces, hit a residential building in the city of Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region. As a result of the missile strike three civilians were injured, according to local residents and debris recovered from the scene. This is the second confirmed casein the last two days of US-supplied weapons involving civilian casualties after hitting a residential building.The attack from an AGM-88B High Speed Anti-Radiation Missile fired from a Ukrainian fighter jet at ground targets happened around 6 p.m. on Sept. 26 in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, according to information and photos published by local residents on Telegram. Kramatorsk is in the Donbass region and has been under constant attacks since the war started.The American AGM-88 HARM missile fired by the Armed Forces of Ukraine missed its target and hit a residential building in Kramatorsk, New York Times also confirmed the information citing a US military source. The missile that hit the apartment building was from old Pentagon stockpiles.The AGM-88 HARM air-to-surface missile is a tactical weapon fired from fighter aircraft, and has the capability to detect and home into radiation emitted by hostile radar stations that have surface-to-air detection capabilities. The reason for the missile going astray and missing its target and hitting a residential building could be the operation of electronic warfare systems in the area. There has been no official comment by US and Ukraine on the incident so far.
Ukraine urges limiting electricity use and readies voluntary Kherson evacuation (Reuters) - Ukraine urged residents of Kyiv and several other areas to limit electricity use as it seeks to recover from Russian strikes on the power grid while the elderly and vulnerable were preparing for a voluntary evacuation of war-ravaged Kherson. Citizens in the recently liberated southern city of Kherson, where Kyiv says Russian troops destroyed critical infrastructure before leaving earlier this month, can apply to be relocated to areas where security and heating issues are less acute. Ukrainians are most likely to live with blackouts - a daily occurrence across the country - at least until the end of March, the head of a major energy provider said on Monday. Russia's response to military setbacks in recent weeks has included a barrage of missile strikes against power facilities that left millions without electricity as winter sets in and temperatures drop below freezing. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said that half of the country's power capacity had been knocked out by Russian rockets. In his nightly video address, he urged people to conserve energy, particularly in hard-hit areas such as Kyiv, Vinnytsia in the southwest, Sumy in the north and Odesa on the Black Sea. "The systematic damage to our energy system from strikes by the Russian terrorists is so considerable that all our people and businesses should be mindful and redistribute their consumption throughout the day," he said. "...Try to limit your personal consumption of electricity." In a Telegram message for Kherson residents - especially the elderly, women with children and those who are ill or disabled - Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk posted a number of ways residents can express interest in leaving. "You can be evacuated for the winter period to safer regions of the country," she wrote, citing both security and infrastructure problems. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the blackouts and Russia's strikes on energy infrastructure are the consequences of Kyiv being unwilling to negotiate, the state TASS news agency reported late last week. On Monday evening, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said that Russia was bombarding Kherson from across the Dnipro River, now that its troops had fled. "There is no military logic: they just want to take revenge on the locals," he tweeted. Moscow denies intentionally targeting civilians in what it calls a "special military operation" to rid Ukraine of nationalists and protect Russian-speaking communities.
Much of Ukraine still without power, heat and water after missile attacks - Much of Ukraine remained without electricity, heat and water two days after a devastating series of Russian missile attacks against the country’s civilian infrastructure.The Kyiv mayor, Vitaly Klitschko, said 60% of households in the city of 3 million had no power, and there were rolling blackouts around the country, as engineers struggled to repair transformers and transmission lines damaged or destroyed by cruise missiles on Wednesday.President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said basic utilities were gradually being restored, but there were problems with water supplies in 15 regions.The UN high commissioner for human rights, Volker Türk, said Russian strikes on critical infrastructure had killed at least 77 people since October.“Millions are being plunged into extreme hardship and appalling conditions of life by these strikes,” said Türk in a statement. “Taken as a whole, this raises serious problems under international humanitarian law, which requires a concrete and direct military advantage for each object attacked.”The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, did not deny that Russia was attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure but blamed Kyiv on the grounds it had not bowed to Russian demands, which he did not specify. Zelenskiy’s government has vowed not to accept peace terms that leave Russia in control of any Ukrainian territory.NASA satellite images over Ukraine comparing February and NovemberIn his nightly address on Thursday, Zelenskiy said the attacks would not break the will of the Ukrainian population. “Together we endured nine months of full-scale war and Russia has not found a way to break us, and will not find one,” he said. The three nuclear power stations still under Ukrainian control were back in operation after an unprecedented complete shutdown on Wednesday. However, Petro Kotin, the head of the state nuclear energy company, Energoatom, told the Guardian that defects in turbogenerators meant that two reactors were not yet rejoined the power grid. Kotin did not say where the two affected reactors were.
Ukraine's battle to restore power slowed by 'difficult weather conditions' | CNN -- The race to restore power to homes in Ukraine is being slowed by “strong winds, rain and sub-zero temperatures,” the state energy supply company said in a statement on Friday.“The pace of restoration [to household consumers] is slowed down by difficult weather conditions,” Ukrenergo said, with the damage caused by Wednesday’s large-scale Russian missile strike, “made worse by the freezing and rupture of wires in distribution networks.”It is the second day of desperate work to keep Ukraine’s lights on.Most power plants are now supplying energy to the national grid after they were temporarily shut down on Wednesday when Moscow sent a barrage of missiles to target energy “generation facilities” in its latest effort to cripple Ukrainian infrastructure, Ukrenergo said. Power has been restored to “critical infrastructure facilities in all regions: boiler houses, gas distribution stations, water utilities, sewage treatment plants.”However there is still a deficit of electricity in the system and Ukrainian authorities are engaged in the delicate work of trying to balance the national power grid, leaving many households without electricity.As repair teams worked desperately to repair the damage late on Thursday, President Volodymyr Zelensky sought to reassure the many Ukrainians facing a second night without heat, power or water. “The situation with electricity remains difficult in almost all regions. However, we are gradually moving away from blackouts and every hour we return power to new consumers,” he said in his nightly video address, in what he described as a “truly national task.”In the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, residents woke up to a thick blanket of fog and temperatures that hovered just above freezing.Half of people were without power on Friday morning, the Kyiv city military administration wrote on Telegram, and mayor Vitalii Klitschko said only one in three houses had heat. Klitschko said engineers would supply electricity to consumers in turns, for three hours, during the day.
Russian Strikes Leave Six Million in Ukraine Without Power – WSJ -- Ukraine said six million people remained without power on Saturday as it worked overtime to repair critical infrastructure damaged by Russian strikes in recent days and bolster the spirits of residents who are struggling without water and electricity as temperatures drop. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Ukrainians to limit their energy consumption in a video address late on Friday, saying that if a home or apartment currently has power it may well be left without it at any moment.
Ukrainians likely to live with blackouts until March-end - energy provider (Reuters) - Ukrainians are most likely to live with blackouts at least until the end of March, the head of a major energy provider said on Monday, as the government started free evacuations for people in Kherson to other regions. Half of Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been damaged by Russian attacks, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, leaving millions of people without electricity and water as winter sets in and temperatures drop below freezing. Sergey Kovalenko, head of the YASNO major private energy provider for Kyiv, said that workers are rushing to complete repairs before the winter cold arrives. "I would like everyone to understand: Ukrainians will most likely live with blackouts until at least the end of March," Kovalenko said in a post on his Facebook page. Blackouts have been a daily occurrence in all of Ukraine's regions, with the grid operator Ukrenergo saying more planned shutdowns are scheduled for Tuesday. Kovalenko added that new restrictions on electricity distribution were imposed by the grid operator on Monday, resulting in more than 950,000 customers being disconnected. The government was offering people in the recently liberated city of Kherson, which remains mostly without electricity and running water, free evacuations to regions with better infrastructure, as well as free accommodation. "Given the difficult security situation in the city and infrastructure problems, you can evacuate for the winter to safer regions of the country," Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on the Telegram messaging app. Zelenskiy urged Ukrainians on Monday to conserve energy, saying they "should be mindful and redistribute their consumption throughout the day". Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the blackouts and Russia's strikes on energy infrastructure are the consequences of Kyiv not willing to negotiate, the state TASS news agency reported late last week. Temperatures in some of Ukraine's regions have already dropped below freezing, including in the capital of Kyiv. Kovalenko said that the country should be prepared for all options, including lengthy power outages. "Stock up on warm clothes, blankets, think about options that will help you wait a long outage," Kovalenko said. "It's better to do it now than to be miserable."
U.S. sanctions threat zaps Russia's homegrown Mir cards in setback -Russia's international ambitions for its homegrown alternative to Visa and Mastercard have been dashed as even some of its closest allies have dropped its Mir payment system following a threat by the U.S. to sanction anyone who helps or supports its use. Of the nine countries that had signed on to Mir, set up by Russia after the first wave of U.S. restrictions back in 2014, banks in six have dropped it in the two months since the Treasury Department issued its warning in September. Surprised by the strength of the response, Bank of Russia officials are struggling to come up with alternatives, given Washington's long reach among international lenders, even in countries the Kremlin considers friendly, according to people familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Publicly, officials say only they're working on other options. With U.S. efforts to limit trade with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine bypassed by major countries in many categories, Mir's struggles are an example of the continuing power of Washington's threats in the international financial system. "For compliance issues, it's difficult to identify whether the user of this card is sanctioned or not," said Behzod Hamraev, deputy governor of the central bank in Uzbekistan, a central Asian country with close economic and political ties with Moscow. Its national processing center stopped handling the cards in late September. The biggest blow came when Turkey, a popular tourist destination and a major country that didn't join the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies, saw all five banks that processed transactions for the card pull out in September. Over the last few month, banks in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan suspended use of the cards, as well. So did Kazakhstan's biggest bank. One of the two institutions in Vietnam accepting it also gave it up. Only Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan still accept it. The Mir site no longer lists the countries where it can be used. "The concern on secondary sanctions outweighs the interest in commission incomes," said Viktor Dostov, president at the Russian E-Money and Remittance Association. "The advantage of the Mir system is that it is global and all Russians have it. Now everyone will be forced to use some kind of private solutions in many countries."
Four Chinese warships and fighter jets approach Taiwan amid growing tensions -- Four Chinese warships, two fighter jets and a military helicopter have been spotted in close proximity off the coast of Taiwan. The Taiwan Ministry of Defense notes that the activity of the Chinese military has been observed near Taiwan since this morning, while the Taiwanese military continues to control the situation. “Today, by 06.00 am three aircraft and four PLA (People’s Liberation Army) ships approached Taiwan”, the ministry said in a statement. According to the Taiwan officials, the Chinese Navy ships are being deployed in the immediate vicinity of the island and Taiwan military assess the situation as a serious threat. So far, there have been no official comments by Beijing, nor information about planned military exercise in the area. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry announced earlier this month it tracked 46 Chinese warplanes, four warships and two military drones around the island. China has increased military activities around Taiwan, which it views as its breakaway province, since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island in August. The move comes just a day after US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin urged China to avoid “destabilizing actions” towards Taiwan in his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe since the controversial Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.
North Korea ICBM had range to hit US mainland - Japan - North Korea has launched an intercontinental ballistic missile with enough range to hit the US mainland, Japan's defence minister says. The missile landed in the sea roughly 210km (130 miles) west of Hokkaido. The US has condemned the launch, while South Korea has ordered stronger deterrence measures against the North. On Thursday North Korean FM Choe Son Hui warned of a "fiercer" response to any increased US military presence in the region. It also launched a short range ballistic missile the same day. That followed Sunday's meeting between South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, US President Joe Biden and Japan's PM Fumio Kishida in Cambodia, in which the three countries agreed to increase their military co-operation. On Friday US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said Mr Biden had been briefed and the US would consult with partners. North Korea has fired more than 50 missiles over the past two months, most of them short-range. These long-range launches are rarer, and pose a direct threat to the US, as the missiles are designed to carry nuclear warheads to anywhere on the US mainland. The latest intercontinential ballistic missile (ICBM) was fired at 10:15 local time (02:15 GMT) from near the North Korean capital Pyongyang, military chiefs in Seoul said. It reached an altitude of 6,100km on a lofted trajectory and travelled 1,000km (621 miles), reaching a speed of Mach 22, South Korea's military said. A lofted trajectory means the missile flies much higher into space but across a shorter distance than it would if fired on a normal trajectory. But Japan's defence minister Yasukazu Hamada said the missile had sufficient range to reach the US. "Based on calculations taking the trajectory into account, the ballistic missile this time around could have had a range capability of 15,000km, depending on the weight of its warhead, and if that's the case, it means the US mainland was within its range," he said. "We have told (Pyongyang) that we absolutely cannot tolerate such actions," Mr Kishida told reporters in Thailand.
University of Tokyo to double number of female professors by fiscal 2027 - The University of Tokyo has said it aims to double its number of female professors and associate professors to around 400 by fiscal 2027 as it pushes for more diversity on campus. Japan’s leading university announced an action plan in fall 2021 in which it seeks to raise its ratio of female faculty members, including lecturers and assistant professors, from the current 16% to 25% or more.But even if the university reaches its target for female faculty members, it will still lag behind global standards.
Punjab Gets Another School for Transgender Persons - In a major development, the Punjab provincial education department has decided to establish a school for the transgender community in the provincial capital, Lahore, to create an egalitarian society. The government of Punjab is working to develop policies that will ensure equal access to education for all citizens, including the transgender class, which is the most deprived segment of Pakistani society. In June 2021, the Punjab government established Pakistan’s first transgender school in Multan, and after its success, it expanded to other cities such as Bahawalpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, and now Lahore. اسکول ایجوکیشن ڈیپارٹمنٹ کی جانب سے ملتان، بہاولپور اور ڈیرہ غازی خان کے بعد لاہور میں بھی ٹرانس جینڈر اسکول کا آغاز کیا جا رہا ہے. 2021 میں ملتان میں دنیا کے پہلے ٹرانس جینڈر اسکول کا آغاز کیا گیا. جس کی کامیابی کے بعد مزید شہروں میں ان کا آغاز کیا گیا.pic.twitter.com/FGZbipUidU — School Education Punjab (@SchoolEduPunjab) November 24, 2022 It is pertinent to mention here that back in 2019, the Usman Buzdar-led Punjab government had established a school for transgender persons in Lodhran city under its Literacy Department.According to a 2019 census, the estimated population of transgender people in Pakistan is around 300,000, though the actual number could be higher, and providing them with basic services is an urgent need.It is important to note that the Senate unanimously approved a bill in March 2018 to protect the rights of transgender people, allowing them to choose their own gender identity.
Teams Abandon Rainbow Armband For World Cup Matches After FIFA Threat -- In the latest World Cup Qatar 2022 controversy, FIFA has brought the hammer down on efforts of some teams and players from the West to highlight LGBT rights in the ultra-conservative Muslim host country of Qatar.The FT reports Monday morning, "A bid by European teams to promote inclusion during the World Cup collapsed on Monday, after the Netherlands, England and Wales said threats from Fifa had forced them to abandon plans to wear rainbow-themed captains’ armbands."The three teams' captains vowed to defy Qatar's conservative Muslim laws and values by wearing "One Love" armbands during games in order to "send a message". The "One Love" armband campaign had been initiated by the Dutch, while Switzerland, Germany, Denmark and Belgium had also planned to participate. In total at least seven teams had planned to wear them during play despite the host country deeming homosexuality as illegal and against the moral teachings of Islam. But FIFA has now warned that teams and players with the armbands will face "sporting sanctions". The football associations of England, Wales, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Switzerland issued the following statement in light of the "unprecedented" FIFA ruling: "As national federations, we can’t put our players in a position where they could face sporting sanctions including bookings, so we have asked the captains not to attempt to wear the armbands in FIFA World Cup games." "We are very frustrated by the FIFA decision which we believe is unprecedented." Some of the teams had expected to merely face and pay fines for the public display, however, they were shocked to instead be threatened with sanctions directly effecting game play.
RBNZ set to deliver biggest rate hike ever as it eyes three month break (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank is expected to deliver its biggest ever rate point hike this week as it continues efforts to temper inflation ahead of a three-month break. Inflation in New Zealand is sitting at 7.2%, non-tradeable inflation - or price increases for products made locally for domestic consumption - is at two decade highs, wage inflation is at a record level and inflation expectations have not eased. "The Reserve Bank finds itself facing the real risk of an inflationary spiral," said Michael Gordon, acting chief economist at Westpac NZ. "A much higher level of interest rates will be needed to bring inflation under control." A front-runner in withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus among its peers, the RBNZ has remained singularly focused on curbing inflation, lifting rates by 325 basis points since October. With the central bank not meeting again for three months over the coming Christmas and summer holidays, if the bank is too timid it will not have an opportunity to tweak policy for some time, Gordon said. A Reuters poll found 15 of 23 economists expect the central bank to lift the cash rate by a record 75 basis points. The remainder expect it to raise rates by 50 basis points. The market is similarly divided. HOME AND AWAY New Zealand-based economists are more hawkish than their international counterparts, unanimously expecting the central bank to hike by 75 basis points. Craig Ebert, senior economist at Bank of New Zealand, said locals might think this is because those abroad don't appreciate quite the extent of core inflation pressure playing out in New Zealand.
Czechia's Frightening Increase In Food Prices - Czechia may produce much of its own food, but that has not stopped the country from seeing a dramatic increase in food prices. On top of the usual suspects such as rising energy prices, part of the problem for Czechs is that a substantial amount of that domestically produced food is exported abroad. Food prices rose by more than a quarter in the Czech Republic in October. This was not only due to soaring energy prices but also partly because Czech stores copy prices in Germany, which has also seen an explosive growth in food prices this year. The data shows just how bad food inflation in Czechia has become. The country experienced the largest percentage rise in sugar prices in Europe; the second-largest in vegetable oils; and the third-largest price increase in butter, milk, and bread. Part of the problem is that Czech producers continued to export many of these commodities abroad, creating a shortage at home and keeping prices high, according to Czech news outlet Seznamz Pravy. The situation the country finds itself in reveals some of the downsides of free trade and globalization, in which companies and producers can often profit more by selling key products abroad rather than selling domestically. In October, Eurostat data showed domestic food prices rose by 26.7 percent, the seventh-fastest rate in Europe after Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. At the same time, Czechia has food in abundance from its own production, or at least enough to cover most of its domestic needs. The increase in the price of sugar by 100 percent, and butter, flour, and vegetable oils by more than 50 percent, is hard to compare in Europe. Inflation is mainly kept below a tolerable level by imported goods, such as fish, vegetables, fruit, and chocolate, where price growth is below the 10 percent mark compared to last year. Oldřich Reinbergr, the former director of the largest sugar company in Czechia, Tereos TTD, explained the increase in the price of sugar, which occurred at the beginning of October in all supermarkets. He said that sugar factories’ old contracts for energy have expired, and they now have to buy the energy to produce sugar at a higher price. “Farmers are facing the same problem,” he said in an interview with the Seznam Zprávy news outlet. Yet there is a simpler explanation. On Oct. 4, all supermarkets in Germany raised the price of sugar; instead of 80 cents per kilogram, they suddenly asked for €1.30. Czech retailers simply copied the price of their neighbors. For domestic customers, this has the disadvantage that they pay the same for sugar as rich Germans. /p>
France Is Facing A High Risk Of A Power Supply Squeeze In January - The French electricity grid is at higher risk of strained power supplies in January 2023 than previously estimated due to lower nuclear power generation, France’s power grid operator RTE said in its latest winter preparedness analysis on Friday.Delays in routine maintenance work at France’s nuclear power stations will lead to a slightly lower nuclear availability this winter than expected back in September, the grid operator said. This raises the risk of a power supply crunch in January, RTE said.The main uncertainties in France’s power supply are gas supply, the energy situation in neighboring countries, demand, and the rate of restarting of French nuclear reactors, the operator noted.Nuclear power generation in France has suffered setbacks this year, and currently, just over 50% of the French nuclear power fleet is available. Early this month, power giant EDF revised down its estimate for the 2022 French nuclear output to 275-285 TWh, compared to the previous estimate of 280-300 TWh. This lowered estimate takes into account the impact of strikes on maintenance schedules in the autumn of 2022, as well as outage extensions at four nuclear reactors involved in the program of inspections and repairs related to the stress corrosion phenomenon, EDF said in a statement.France, traditionally a net exporter of electricity, even became a net importer of electricity in the first half of 2022 due to the issues at its nuclear power plants. After a drought in the summer, water levels at hydropower reservoirs are back up to normal for this time of the year, while very high gas storage levels in France and the rest of Europe mean that French gas-powered electricity supply will not be threatened this winter, the operator said. RTE stressed that under no circumstances does France run a risk of a “blackout”, that is, a total loss of control of the electricity system.During periods of strained supply, France could avoid outages by reducing consumption by between 1% and 5% in the base-case scenario, and by up to 15% in the worst-case scenario, RTE said.
German Disaster Official Recommends Stockpiling 'Several Crates' Of Water, Canned Food - The head of Germany's Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief (BBK), Ralph Tiesler, has warned citizens to prepare for short-term power outages, particularly in January and February, and to stock up on rations in advance. "We have to assume that there will be blackouts this winter. By that, I mean a regional and temporary interruption in the power supply. The cause will not only be energy shortages, but also the targeted, temporary shutdown of the networks by the operators, with the aim of protecting the networks and not endangering the overall supply," Tiesler told the news outlet Welt am Sonntag, adding that local authorities in several German municipalities are preparing for the possibility of blackouts, and have developed 'precise plans' that include procuring emergency generators to support the system.That said, some municipalities are not prepared - and d espite German gas storage facilities being near capacity, experts don't think the stockpile will be enough to last the country through the winter due to a lack of new supply from Russia."We expect short-term blackouts rather than long-lasting, large-scale blackouts. But good preparation is important for that, too," Tiesler added.
Euro zone yields rise, German curve close to deepest inversion since 2008 - (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs edged up with the German yield curve close to its deepest inversion in almost 14-1/2 years, as investors closely watched Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data which might affect monetary tightening expectations. France's private sector economy contracted in November for the first time since February 2021. The downturn in German economic activity eased in November, a PMI preliminary survey showed on Wednesday. Germany's 10-year government bond yield DE10YT=RR , the bloc's benchmark, was up 4.5 basis points (bps) at 2.03%. It hit its lowest since October 5 at 1.949% last week. The gap between 10-year and 2-year yields DE2DE10=RR was at -14.5 bps after briefly hitting its lowest since June 2008 in early trade at -17.5 bps. "Considering ECB officials are still leaning on the hawkish side, we see a case for weak PMIs putting additional flattening pressure on the curve, leading to a deeper inversion of the 2/10Y spread," Unicredit analysts said in a note to clients. The European Central Bank (ECB) still has a long way ahead of it on rate hikes, the head of Germany's Ifo economic institute told Reuters on Tuesday. ECB hawks and doves sent mixed signals on Tuesday, with Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel opening the door to smaller interest rate increases coupled with a longer tightening path. Italy's 10-year bond yield IT10YT=RR rose 4 bps to 3.96%, with the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields DE10IT10=RR at 192 bps. Investors will also watch U.S. Treasuries before the release of minutes from the Nov. 1-2 Federal Reserve policy meeting, due late on Wednesday. U.S. borrowing costs eased on Tuesday amid thin trading and lingering concerns over more COVID-19 infections in China, with investors waiting for clues on the outlook for inflation and monetary policy from Fed minutes. Analysts said minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might provide insights about expectations for a slower pace of hikes but a potentially higher terminal rate.
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