Federal Reserve hikes interest rates by 75 basis points for fourth time this year - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday hiked interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, pressing even harder on the brakes of the economy in a scramble to slow inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee, the panel of Fed officials responsible for monetary policy, boosted the central bank’s baseline interest rate range to a span of 3.75 to 4 percent. It is the fourth consecutive 75 basis point hike issued by the Fed and sixth interest rate increase since March. As the Fed raises its baseline interest rate range, interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and other loans rise as well. Higher borrowing costs tend to slow the economy as households and businesses have less money to spend on goods and services. The Fed’s latest hike will add even more financial pressure to a resilient but slowing U.S. economy that some experts believe is on the precipice of recession. The Fed’s rapid interest rate hikes have caused home sales to collapse and pushed businesses to pull back investment, two major forces that could slow the U.S. economy. Higher Fed interest rates also deepen economic turmoil abroad, which could boomerang on the U.S. Even so, inflation has remained stubbornly high as a strong U.S. job market helps support consumer spending and supply shocks — particularly the war in Ukraine — push prices for food and fuel higher. Prices rose 6.2 percent over the past 12 months, according to the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The Fed has faced growing pressure from some policymakers, especially Democratic lawmakers, to slow down its rate hike campaign amid growing signs of a looming recession. Critics of the Fed’s approach argue the bank will needlessly drive millions into unemployment by ignoring clear signs of inflation falling, the lagging effect of Fed interest rate hikes and the bank’s inability to solve supply snarls. Fed leaders have insisted for months that they will continue to boost interest rates until inflation shows signs of falling toward the bank’s annual 2 percent target. But the FOMC’s statement announcing the latest interest rate hike Wednesday also hinted toward a slower pace of rate hikes moving forward. FOMC officials said Wednesday they will consider “the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments” when deciding future rate hikes. Put simply, Fed officials will think about how quickly they’ve already raised rates, how long those hike may take to affect inflation, and how the economy is responded. While those are all factors the Fed should consider anyway, their inclusion in Wednesday’s statement is a notable admission of the risks the bank faces as it fights inflation.
FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 75 bp; "Ongoing increases appropriate" --Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement:Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Watch live: Jerome Powell discusses expected rate increase --Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference Wednesday afternoon to discuss what’s expected to be a three-quarters-of-a-point interest rate hike in a continuation of this year’s series of increases. Watch the live video above.
Fed's Powell: "Ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected" --A quick note ... this was the key sentence from Fed Chair Powell's press conference: "the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected".Powell also said that "At some point it will be appropriate to slow the rate of increases", but he said that might be in December or in 2023. Overall his comments were hawkish.
Fed chief sees narrower path to avoid a recession in inflation fight -- After months of fighting inflation, it’s “harder to see the path” for the Federal Reserve to control price increases without causing a recession — but officials believe letting inflation stay high would be worse than an economic downturn, Chair Jerome H. Powell said Wednesday, as the central bank raised its baseline rate by 0.75 percentage points for the fourth time this year. Now the Fed shows no signs of backing down, even as Powell acknowledged that officials are making decisions without full certainty of how they will unfold. “We’ve always said it was going to be difficult” to achieve a so-called “soft landing” without a recession, Powell said at a news conference after two days of meetings by the Fed’s open markets committee. “I think to the extent rates have to go higher and stay higher for longer, it becomes harder to see the path. It’s narrowed. I would say the path has narrowed over the course of the last year.” How the Fed’s rate hikes slow the economy — and impact you Major U.S. stock markets — which have already been volatile over the prospect of rates that stay higher for longer — swerved off the news, with the Dow Jones industrial average briefly climbing more than 300 points before reversing course and turning negative. The Dow ultimately closed down 505 points, or 1.55 percent. The S&P 500 dropped 2.5 percent, and the Nasdaq dropped 3.36 percent. The Fed effectively has only one tool to get inflation under control: the federal funds rate, or what banks charge each other to lend. That interest rate is blunt but wide-ranging, and it targets demand by influencing all kinds of borrowing, from mortgage rates and car loans to debt taken on by businesses. The Fed has now raised rates six times since March, pushing its policy rate between 3.75 and 4 percent, considered “restrictive” territory that should slow economic growth. The Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer comes as it falls under growing criticism from economists and Democrats on Capitol Hill that it is moving far too forcefully and not allowing enough time for its policies to take hold in the economy. Powell made clear that he doesn’t “have any sense we’ve overtightened,” and said that “it is very premature to be thinking about pausing.” “We have a ways to go,” he said.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Drops by $289 Billion from Peak: November Update on Quantitative Tightening by Wolf Richter - (w/ graphs) Total assets on the Federal Reserve’s weekly balance sheet, released today, with balances as of November 2, dropped by $82 billion from the October 5 balance sheet, to $8.68 trillion, the lowest since December 8, 2021.Treasury securities mature mid-month and at the end of the month, which is when they roll off the Fed’s balance sheet. Today’s weekly balance sheet included the Treasury roll-off on October 31. Since the peak in early June, $196 billion in Treasury securities have rolled off the Fed’s balance sheet, reducing the balance of Treasury securities to $5.57 trillion, the lowest since November 17.Over the four weeks since the October 5 balance sheet, $59 billion have rolled off:
- Treasury notes and bonds (2-30 years): -$46.2 billion
- Treasury bills (1 year or less): -$12.6 billion
- Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS): unchanged
- TIPS related inflation compensation: -$0.07 billion
Since the peak, the balance of MBS had dropped by $62 billion. Over the past four weeks, the balance declined by $20 billion, to $2.68 trillion.MBS come off the balance sheet mostly via pass-through principal payments that occur when the underlying mortgage is paid off or when regular mortgage payments are made. Mortgages are paid off mostly when the home is sold or when the mortgage is refinanced. Since mortgage interest rates have spiked, refinance activity has collapsed (read: Mortgage Lender Woes), and mortgage payoffs when the home is sold have plunged as home sales have plunged by 30% from two years ago. So the pass-through principal payments turned from a torrent in 2021 to a creek now.The inflow of new MBS onto the balance sheet petered out in October afterthe Fed stopped buying MBS in mid-September. Back when the Fed was still buying large amounts of MBS, and when there was still a torrent of pass-through principal payments, the weekly mismatch in timing between the two created the jagged line in the chart. Since the large inflows have ended, there are no more upticks. The downticks represent the pass-through principal payments: Like everyone who buys bonds in the secondary market, the Fed had to pay a “premium” over face value when it bought securities that had been issued years earlier when interest rates were higher, and that therefore came with a higher coupon interest rate than the market yield at the time of the purchase.The Fed books the face value of securities in the regular accounts, and it books the “premiums” in an account called “unamortized premiums.” It amortizes the premium of each bond to zero over the remaining maturity of the bond. When the bond matures, the Fed receives face value for the bond, and it rolls off the balance sheet. By that time, the premium has already been fully amortized.Unamortized premiums have dropped by $36 billion from the peak in November 2021, to $320 billion: In October, there was some catastrophist chatter in some corners of the blogosphere about the Fed suddenly and “quietly” handing the Swiss National Bank a gazillion dollars.In reality, the Fed and the Swiss National Bank engaged in dollar liquidity swaps on the Fed’s swap line with the SNB that has been operational for many years. These were 7-day swaps, and after 7 days, the Fed gets its dollars back.In total, they undertook five 7-day swaps in a row, starting on September 14. The last swap, the largest one, amounting to $11.1 billion, matured on October 27. Since then, there have been no swaps with the SNB, and the balance with the SNB is now $0.This chart shows the use of the swap lines during times of high financial frictions. That little dot at the end is the SNB:
Powell waves off financial stability concerns after another big rate hike -— Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell brushed away concerns of financial stability as he announced another large interest rate hike Wednesday afternoon.During this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed voted unanimously to raise its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the fourth such increase in as many meetings. The Fed's target interest rate range is now 3.75-4%, the highest rate since January 2008.While broadly expected, this latest 75-basis-point hike comes against a backdrop of rising calls for the Fed to slow its rate of increases or pause them altogether to allow changes in monetary policy to be fully absorbed by the economy. "It's premature to discuss pausing and it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had. We have a ways to go," Powell said during a press conference following the meeting on Wednesday. "And one thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done, and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon."Yet many are more worried about the Fed going too far than not far enough. In the weeks since the Fed's last meeting in September, a growing number of economists, policy experts and lawmakers — primarily Democrats — have raised concerns that the Fed is jeopardizing the U.S. labor market as well as global financial markets through its aggressive policy changes.Pointing to rising mortgage rates, falling home prices and an uptick in defaults among high-risk borrowers, some economists argue the effects of the Fed's tightened monetary policy have already been felt by the most interest rate-sensitive parts of the economy. Because it takes time for higher borrowing costs to be reflected in other sectors, tightening aggressively until those metrics trend down runs the risk of an overcorrection, policy experts said.Powell described the decline in mortgage activity and home prices seen in recent months as a necessary correction to an overheated market. He also noted that the current hardships in real estate markets were unlikely to bleed over into other parts of the economy. "From a financial stability standpoint, we didn't see, in this cycle, the kinds of poor credit underwriting that we saw before the global financial crisis," Powell said. "Housing credit was … much more carefully managed by the lenders, so it's a very different situation and … doesn't appear to present stability issues, but we do understand that that's a very big effect of our policy."Lawmakers also urged the Fed to take a more tempered approach to fighting inflation to prevent adverse impacts on the labor market. Since last week, at least 13 members of Congress have sent or signed onto letters to the Fed warning that raising rates too much or too quickly could trigger unnecessary job losses, thus putting the Fed's mandate to stabilize prices ahead of its obligations to maintain full employment.Powell addressed the topic of the Fed's dual mandate repeatedly during both his prepared remarks and in response to questions posed during the press conference. He said the Fed remained committed to maintaining maximum employment, adding that stabilizing prices would be key to that."Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices in the longer run," he said, adding that given that job openings are currently outnumber job seekers, a correction in the labor market could take place with fewer job losses that is broadly expected.Powell said the Fed remained committed to increasing interest rates until prices stabilize and noted that further increases will likely be necessary to achieve that goal. But, the statement released by the FOMC acknowledges there are many factors that could cause it to change course.
Fed cites inflation, monetary policy as top financial stability concerns -As inflation continues to run at 40-year highs in the U.S., financial markets are worried both about rising prices and the Federal Reserve's monetary response to them. In the Fed's latest financial stability report, published Friday afternoon, persistent inflation and monetary tightening were identified as top concerns among 62% of broker-dealers, investment funds, research and advisory organizations, and academics surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Some respondents cited the compounding effect of interest rates being raised by central banks around the world simultaneously and the potential liquidity restraints from the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet as specific concerns. Others worried the Fed would reduce its tightening efforts too soon. Inflation and rising interest rates deployed to fight it are the top sources of financial stability risk in the economy, according to the Federal Reserve's semiannual financial stability report released on Friday.Russia's invasion of Ukraine also remains a substantial concern for financial stability, the New York Fed found, with an equal number of market participants counting it among their top concerns for the smooth functioning of financial markets.Also, market liquidity strains and volatility, which were not cited at all during the prior report, were mentioned in more than half the responses in this month's report, with respondents pointing to the Fed's balance sheet reduction as a possible strain on liquidity.Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who has already raised concerns about the potential spillover effect of global monetary tightening, said the volatility seen in financial markets during the past six months has highlighted the need for tracking vulnerabilities. "Today's environment of rapid synchronous global monetary policy tightening, elevated inflation, and high uncertainty associated with the pandemic and the war raises the risk that a shock could lead to the amplification of vulnerabilities, for instance due to strained liquidity in core financial markets or hidden leverage," Brainard said in a statement. "It's important to remain attentive to the risks raised in the report and to work with domestic and international regulators to support the resilience of the financial system."This month's report comes on the tails of the Fed's fourth 75-basis-point interest rate increase of the year, which was implemented after this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. It also arrives amid growing concerns from economists and lawmakers that the Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate too high too quickly, battering the U.S. housing market and destabilizing other global economies that are heavily dependent on the dollar. Before this week's FOMC meeting, more than a dozen members of Congress urged the Fed to slowits pace of tightening or pause altogether to allow the impact of the increases implemented already to be fully absorbed by the economy.Some have been waving a caution flag about the Fed moving too quickly since its first 75 basis point increase in June.This week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell brushed off those concerns, noting that he would rather risk overtightening than undertightening. Should the Fed go too far, he explained, it could always loosen monetary policy again to offset the negative effects. "It's premature to discuss pausing and it's not something that we're thinking about," Powell said Wednesday in his post-FOMC press conference. That's really not a conversation to be had. We have a ways to go,"
Stop Worshiping Central Banks --Preoccupied with enhancing their own ‘credibility’ and reputations, central banks (CBs) are again driving the world economy into recession, financial turmoil and debt crises. Most CB governors believe ‘credibility’ is desirable and must be achieved by fighting inflation at any cost. To justify their own more harmful policies, they warn inflation is ‘damaging’. They argue CBs need ‘independence’ from governments to pursue ‘credible’ monetary policy. Inflation targeting to ‘anchor’ inflation expectations is supposed to generate desired ‘confidence’. But CBs have been responsible for many costly failures.The US Fed deepened the 1930s’ Great Depression, the 1970s’ stagflation and the early 1980s’ contraction, besides contributing to the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC). Hence, CB notions of ‘credibility’ and ‘independence’ need to be reconsidered.Milton Friedman – whom many central bankers revere – blamed the 1930s’ Great Depression on US Fed actions and inactions. Instead of providing liquidity support for businesses struggling with short-term cash-flow problems, it squeezed credit and economies.But why did the Fed behave as it did? Some economic historians insist it was “to promote the interests of commercial banks, rather than economic recovery”.Monetary policy before and during the Great Depression “was designed to cause the failure of non-member banks, which would enhance the long-run profits of the Fed’s member banks and enlarge the [Fed’s] regulatory domain”.Others concluded, “Federal Reserve errors seem largely attributable to the continued use of flawed policies” to defend the ‘gold standard’, and its poor understanding of monetary conditions. Worse, few lessons were learnt. Instead of protecting the gold standard, or being counter-cyclical, fighting inflation is the new CB preoccupation. Even worse, most CBs now commit to an arbitrarily-set inflation target of 2%, first promoted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand over three decades ago.Major CB interventions have caused both economic booms or bubbles and busts or contractions, often without mitigating inflation. Such “go-stop” monetary policy swings have caused asset price bubbles and financial fragility besides sudden contractions.Ben Bernanke’s research team found the major damage from the 1970s’ oil price shocks was due to the “tightening of monetary policy” response. Other research attributed the 1970s’ stagflation largely to the Fed’s “go-stop” monetary policy, worsened by policymakers’ “misperceptions” and “faulty doctrine”.Hence, “in substantial part the Great Stagflation of the 1970s could have been avoided, had the Fed not permitted major monetary expansions in the early 1970s”. Likewise, Fed chair Paul Volcker sharply raised interest rates during 1979-81 “to a crushing level of nearly 20 per cent by the middle of 1981”.This precipitated the “ensuing recession that started in July 1981 [which] became the most severe downturn since the second world war”. US unemployment reached nearly 11% in late 1982, the highest since the Great Depression.Volcker’s actions betrayed the Fed’s dual mandate to pursue both full employment and price stability. First in the Employment Act of 1946, it was re-codified in the 1978 ‘Humphrey-Hawkins’ Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act.Eventually, the long-term unemployed “became invisible to both the labour market and to policymakers”. Many became deskilled as others fell victim to criminality, substance abuse, and mental illness, even suicide.The overall health of Americans became “poorer for years as a result of the deep economic recession in 1981 and 1982”.
Rising profits are driving inflation, UBS economist says -Ahead of another expected interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, a top economist at Swiss bank UBS is warning that high inflation is more the result of rising profits than wages and that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell needs to explain exactly how he thinks higher rates are going to bring down rising prices for consumers.“Powell’s public remarks offer little insight into how he expects higher rates to tame inflation,” UBS Global Wealth Management chief economist Paul Donovan wrote in the Financial Times on Wednesday.“The omission matters as the current policy tightening will have an impact through an unusual route. That is because today’s price inflation is more a product of profits than wages,” Donovan added.Corporate profits have soared during the recovery from the global shutdowns caused by the coronavirus pandemic, with private sector giants from the energy sector to the financial sector posting huge gains. JPMorgan Chase & Co. pulled in a 30 percent profit margin in the third quarter.Many CEOs on earnings calls in a variety of different industries have indicated that inflationary expectations are allowing them to raise prices on consumers to increase their margins without scaring them away.“Companies have passed higher costs onto customers. But they have also taken advantage of circumstances to expand profit margins. The broadening of inflation beyond commodity prices is more profit margin expansion than wage cost pressures,” Donovan wrote.These increases have some macroeconomic tailwinds, some economists have noted. One recent influential study published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics found that the average profit rate since 1980 has increased from 1 percent to 8 percent and that price markups over that period increased from 21 percent to 61 percent.Profit as a share of gross domestic product has also been rising.“The 12.4 percent profit share we saw in the second quarter is above the 12.2 percent peak share we saw in the 00s, and far above the 10.4 percent peak share in the 1990s,” U.S. economist Dean Baker wrote in an October blog post.“It hardly seems as though businesses are being forced by costs to push up prices. It instead looks like they are taking advantage of presumably temporary shortages to increase their profit margins,” he wrote.Both Baker and UBS’s Donovan have also cautioned about the power of “storytelling” in driving inflation, which can discipline consumer expectations into accepting higher prices.“Consumers seem to be buying stories that seem to justify price increase, but which really serve as a cover for profit margin expansion. Indeed, the soundbite economics of the Twitter era helps this process along,” Donovan wrote.
Warren, other lawmakers urge Fed to slow, pause rate hikes -Eleven more members of Congress are calling for the Federal Reserve to think twice before raising interest rates during this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.A group of four senators and seven representatives, led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Madeleine Dean, D-Pa., submitted a letter to the Fed on Monday. In it, they decried the "alarming pace" the central bank has taken with its monetary adjustments thus far this year and the Fed's "disturbing warning to American families that they should expect 'pain' over the coming months."The contents of the letter were originally reported by Politico and confirmed by American Banker. The letter was sent a day before the Fed convened its second-to-last FOMC meeting of the year. It is broadly expected to raise its benchmark by 75 basis points for the fourth time in four meetings. Overall, the Fed has increased its federal funds rate by 3 percentage points this year. The committee's most recent summary of economic projections forecasted an additional 1.25 percentage points of increase by the end of the year. The members of Congress urged the Fed to listen to the growing group of economists who have raised concerns about an over tightening of monetary policy. The letter calls for a slowdown or pause in interest rate hikes to allow the increases that have already been instituted to take effect.Should the unemployment rate rise from 3.7% to 4.4% by next year, as the Fed has projected, that would equate to 1.2 million lost jobs, the letter notes. Private estimates, such as the 5.6% jobless rate forecast by Bank of America, foresee even greater losses. These projections, coupled with the Fed's commitment to continue "aggressively" pursue price stability, even if it leads to a recession, raise concerns, the lawmakers wrote."These statements reflect an apparent disregard for the livelihoods of millions of working Americans, and we are deeply concerned that your interest rate hikes risk slowing the economy to a crawl while failing to slow rising prices that continue to harm families," they wrote.The letter was co-signed by Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., Jeffrey Merkley, D-Mass., and Reps. Katie Porter, D-Calif., Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., Jesús García, D-Ill., Sylvia Garcia, D-Texas, and Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y. It is the latest missive from Congress urging the Fed not to sacrifice jobs in pursuit of reining in 40-year-high inflation. Last week, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, sent a letter to the Fed encouraging it to consider its mandate for maintaining full employment as it weighs another large rate hike. Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., made a similar appeal two days later.
Car loan rates head for 14-year high in new barrier for buyers Just as automakers start making headway sorting out the parts shortages that have constrained production and left dealers with a scarce supply of vehicles to sell, the Federal Reserve is putting up a new obstacle: much costlier car loans.The average annual percentage rate on new-car loans was 6.3% last month, the highest since April 2019, according to Edmunds. The auto-market researcher's data shows APRs closely track the effective federal funds rate, which suggests financing a new vehicle will be costlier in the coming months than it's been since early 2009."New-vehicle inventory might finally be improving, but the automotive industry is still on a long road to recovery because rising interest rates are creating a major barrier to entry for car shoppers," Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds, said in an email. "Many consumers who have been sitting out of the market due to high prices and limited options will likely continue to do so over high interest rates."The auto market has drastically changed since loan rates were last this high. The average amount financed toward a new-vehicle purchase last month was $40,438, according to Edmunds. That's up 27% from $31,914 in April 2019."The average price of a vehicle has risen dramatically, there are fewer smaller, budget-friendly vehicles for shoppers to choose from," Caldwell said. "And on top of that, consumers are paying more for everything else in their lives."
Fed's latest rate hike to cost credit card holders $5.1 billion: WalletHub -- The Federal Reserve's latest rate hike will cost Americans with outstanding credit card debt more than $5 billion in additional interest over the next 12 months, according to an estimate from the personal-finance site WalletHub.The company found that the Fed's aggressive streak of rate increases this year has heaped about $25.6 billion in additional interest onto Americans' yearly credit card bills. WalletHub's calculation is based on an estimated $1.18 trillion in outstanding credit card debt for 2022, with 58% of cardholder accounts carrying balances.The Federal Open Market Committee raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday — its fourth such jumbo hike in a row and its sixth increase this year — in an effort to tamp down persistent inflation.Most credit cards have variable rates that are tied to the federal funds rate, meaning cardholders can see their interest rates go up overnight, according to WalletHub analyst Jill Gonzalez. So far, the central bank's rate hikes have driven average annual percentage rates above 18% to the highest levels in more than 25 years.That's put American consumers in a "financial Catch-22," forcing them to increasingly swipe plastic to keep up with soaring prices while also facing higher borrowing costs, said Gonzalez. A New York Fed report found that credit card balances increased by $46 billion in the second quarter, a 13% cumulative increase from the prior year and the largest jump in more than two decades, putting total credit card debt at $890 billion. "We're seeing new debt incurred and being put on credit cards," Gonzalez said. "And they're not spending on frivolous things — it's basic necessities due to inflation."While the Fed's hawkish monetary policy aims to restore price stability and give relief to U.S. consumers, economists worry the central bank will raise rates too much and cause economic pain.
Fed’s Powell Calls U.S. Economy “Robust” as Personal Savings Rate Collapses to Same Level as in Financial Crisis of 2008 - By Pam and Russ Martens: -At Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on September 21, he made a remark that went unchallenged by the bevy of reporters in attendance. Powell said this:“This is a strong, robust economy. People have savings on their balance sheet from the period when they couldn’t spend and where they were getting government transfers. There’s still very significant savings out there, although not as much at the lower end of the income spectrum — but still, some savings out there to support growth. The states are very flush with cash, so there’s good reason to think that this will continue to be a reasonably strong economy.” (See the top of page 15 of the official transcript from the Fed.)Powell’s statement stands in stark contrast to the numbers coming out of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). According to BEA data, the Personal Savings Rate in the U.S. now stands at 3.5 percent, exactly where it stood in August of 2008 – in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.The Personal Savings Rate spiked to 33.1 percent in April of 2020 as a result of two main factors. First, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic on March 11, 2020. That declaration came after 118,000 people in 114 countries had been confirmed to have contracted COVID-19 and 4,291 deaths had resulted. Personal savings escalated dramatically in the U.S. after March 11, 2020 as people stopped dining out, shopping in stores and taking vacations out of fear of contracting the virus.In addition, from April 2020 to December 2021, the federal government made direct payments to individuals totaling $931 billion to help offset the severe financial impact of employment losses from the pandemic. The CARES Act, the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021, and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 authorized three rounds of Economic Impact Payments that went to approximately 165 million Americans.The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 also temporarily expanded the eligibility of the Child Tax Credit (CTC) to more families and increased the credit amounts. From July to December 2021, eligible families received advance monthly payments of half their total expected CTC, benefiting about 84% of children in the US.But today, the worst inflation in four decades has put Americans back to the level of personal savings as in August of 2008. It is difficult to correlate Fed Chair Powell’s assessment of the U.S. economy as “robust” when GDP has contracted for two consecutive quarters.The financial strain on American households is showing up in growing debt loads. According to the New York Fed’s “Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit” for the second quarter of this year, aggregate household debt now stands at an historic high of $16.10 trillion – an increase of $2 trillion since December of 2019, just before the onset of the pandemic.
Early Q4 GDP Tracking and Upward Revisions to Q3 GDP -- A wide range of Q4 estimates, from 0.7% to 3.6%. It looks like Q3 GDP will be revised up in the second release. From BofA: [1.0% in Q4] Overall, the data since our last weekly publication when the BEA’s advance estimate of US 3Q GDP growth was released, moved up our 3Q GDP tracking estimate from 2.6% q/q saar (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to 3.1% q/q saar [Nov 4th estimate] From Goldman: Following today’s data, we lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +0.7% (qoq ar) but boosted our past-quarter tracking estimate for Q3 by the same amount to +3.1%, compared to +2.6% as originally reported. [Nov 3rd estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thefourth quarter of 2022 is 3.6 percent on November 3, up from 2.6 percent on November 1. [Nov 3rd estimate]
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 30th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is about at the same level as in 2019 (100.3% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 27th. Movie ticket sales were at $147 million last week, down about 7% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through Oct 22nd. The occupancy rate was down 0.5% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of October 21st, gasoline supplied was down 6.9% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.
Recent data indicate that a “soft landing” is still in reach—the Fed should try to secure it: Ignoring disinflation signs heightens risk of recession - EPI Blog by Josh Bivens - Last week’s release of data on gross domestic product (GDP) and employer costs are sending a message to the Fed as it meets to set interest rates: There is substantial disinflation in the pipeline that will allow inflation to normalize in coming months even if the labor market remains strong. But securing this “soft landing” will require patience.
- In the most important markets for normalizing inflation, the housing and labor markets, there are signs of noticeable disinflation happening.
- Further, the Fed has not been the only source of macroeconomic policy tightening this year—the fiscal contraction in 2022 has been highly significant and underappreciated. This contraction has, in turn, contributed to the very slow pace of demand growth over the past year.
- Combined, these facts give the Fed some breathing room to slow the pace of rate hikes, even if these disinflationary trends have yet to show up in the consumer price index (CPI). In short, the “soft landing,” wherein inflation normalizes without sabotaging today’s strong labor market, is still possible and the Fed should try hard to secure it.
Below, we expand on these points.
2 in 3 say US in a recession: survey -Nearly two-thirds of registered voters believe the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, according to a new Politico-Morning Consult poll.About 65 percent of respondents indicated they believe the economy is already in a recession, compared to 22 percent who said the opposite. Fourteen percent didn’t know or had no opinion.Republicans were more likely to consider the economy to be in a recession, with 81 percent saying so compared to 63 percent of independents and 51 percent of Democrats.Concerns about an economic slowdown have grown as the Federal Reserve continues aggressively hiking interest rates, which increases borrowing costs to lower inflation by cooling off demand.Analysts and economists are confident the Fed will announce a hike in its baseline interest rate range of another 0.75 percentage points on Wednesday, which would mark the fourth consecutive increase at the aggressive pace.Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated the central bank will keep increasing rates until inflation shows clear signs of falling, but progressive Democrats are increasingly ripping Powell for risking job losses as a result of the moves.The hikes already have caused rising mortgage rates and a a steep decline in home sales. Wage growth has slowed and businesses have pulled back on long-term investments that could drive future growth.But although inflation has eased from a 40-year high reached earlier this year, price gains remain at elevated levels.The latest consumer price index (CPI) indicates prices rose 0.4 percent in September, marking the second straight month of accelerating inflation. Annual inflation dropped slightly to 8.2 percent. Meanwhile, gross domestic product (GDP) declined in the first two quarters of the year, sparking debate over whether the data signified the economy was technically in a recession.President Biden suggested last month the possibility of a “slight recession” while indicating he didn’t believe there would be one at all, and the White House has regularly touted strong employment numbers and manufacturing growth to reject talk of such a downturn.After the Commerce Department released data showing U.S. economic growth rebounded during the third quarter, with GDP growing at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent, Biden held up the numbers as a counterpoint to “doomsayers” and Republicans in the recession debate.“For months, doomsayers have been arguing that the US economy is in a recession and Congressional Republicans have been rooting for a downturn,” Biden said at the time. “But today we got further evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward. This is a testament to the resilience of the American people.”
Yields Surge To Session High After Treasury Unexpectedly Projects It Will Issue An Additional $150BN In Q4 Debt - At a time when QT is rapidly shrinking the amount of total reserves, if barely denting the outstanding reverse repos... ... as the Fed's balance sheet just shrank by $72BN in the past month, its biggest decline since the early days of the covid crisis... ... many have asked just where will the demand come from to purchase all those trillions in debt that have to be sold over the next two years during which time the Fed's balance sheet will (supposedly) continue to shrink, and just when will the Treasury commit to TSY buybacks since the Fed won't do more QE for at least a few more months (until the BLS admits just how ugly US payrolls truly are, a few weeks after the midterms) as the Treasury market continues to fracture and break with every week that nothing happens. Well, moments ago the Treasury just added fuel to that particularly fiery question when in its latest Marketable Borrowing Estimate it uneviled that in the current October – December 2022 quarter, the US Treasury now expects to borrow $550 billion in marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion. The borrowing estimate is $150 billion higher than announced in August 2022, and is due primarily due to changes to projections of fiscal activity, greater than projected discount on marketable securities, and lower non-marketable financing. It doesn't end there of course, and in its first estimate for borrowing during the January – March 2023 quarter, the Treasury expects to borrow $578 billion in new debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $500 billion. Said otherwise, another $1.1 trillion in debt issuance in the next six months. As for the historical, July – September 2022 quarter, the Treasury borrowed a relatively modest $457 billion in marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $636 billion. In August 2022, Treasury estimated borrowing of $444 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion. The $13 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from lower net fiscal flows, somewhat offset by the lower end-of-quarter cash balance. The news that the Treasury will need to issue an additional $150BN was disappointed the market, and sent yields to session highs, while stocks and other risk assets briefly tumbled.
Debt Limit Showdown Looms as White House Braces for a Divided Washington - The New York Times - G.O.P. threats to leverage the full faith and credit of the United States to force spending cuts have raised alarm about a debt showdown next year — and talks about how to head one off in the coming weeks. President Biden and Congress are facing a looming showdown with Republicans over raising the nation’s borrowing limit, alarming administration officials, Democrats in Congress and some investors who fear a stalemate that could roil financial markets at a precarious time for the global economy.The fight could come to a head as soon as early next year, when the government is projected to hit its borrowing limit unless Congress can muster the votes to raise it. Republicans have vehemently opposed such increases and are threatening to block them outright should they succeed in winning control of one or both chambers in next week’s midterm elections.Top Republicans have suggested in recent weeks that they would use any vote to avert a potentially calamitous default on the U.S. government’s debt to force President Biden to accept deep cuts to federal spending that he has said he will not support, potentially including reductions to Social Security and Medicare.That could lead to a crisis similar to one that gripped Washington in 2011, when the nation came within days of defaulting on its debt as Republicans in Congress tried to force a Democratic president, Barack Obama, to accept large cuts in exchange for raising the legal borrowing limit.Fearful of a repeat, a growing number of Democrats have urged party leaders to use a lame-duck session after the election to raise the debt limit substantially should Republicans win a majority, taking the issue off the table before the G.O.P. assumes control.The federal government could hit the debt ceiling in early 2023, though some estimates suggest it could happen later in the year; the Treasury Department can take “extraordinary measures” to continue payments for at least a few months. The cap governs how much the Treasury can legally borrow to finance its debt, based on spending that has already occurred.Democrats are discussing a number of options for avoiding a politically and fiscally damaging logjam. They have floated legislation that would allow the administration to raise the debt ceiling unilaterally, rather than requiring a vote of Congress, or eliminate the cap altogether. Some have called for a measure that would raise the borrowing limit by an amount so large that it would effectively punt the next debt fight until after the 2024 presidential election.
The GOP’s at odds over the debt ceiling - The top Republican on House Financial Services doesn’t want Kevin McCarthyto pick a fight with the Biden administration over the debt ceiling.Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), who’s poised to chair the powerful committee if Republicans take control of the House, told MM on Monday that he opposes McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) plan to use the debt limit to extract potentially painful spending cuts from Democrats next year.“It's important that Congress raise the debt limit,” McHenry said, adding that he looked forward to making sure members “understand the debt limit; what it is, why it exists and the consequences for inaction.”McHenry’s unwillingness to mess with a key mechanism affecting how Washington pays its bondholders — to say nothing of millions of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries — could put him at odds with House Republicans who want to exert maximum pressure on Democrats to force spending reductions.Treasury markets are “the lifeblood of the global economy,” said McHenry, a 17-year incumbent who has deep relationships within the financial services sector.While McHenry underscored the risks of using the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip, McCarthy told Punchbowl News last month that it’s time for Congress to stop “lifting [the government’s] credit card limit.” Raising the debt limit allows the government to cover expenses that Congress has already incurred; it doesn’t authorize new spending.McCarthy’s comments signaled a revival of Obama-era budget battles that convulsed markets and put the government in danger of default. (Republicans and Democrats reached agreements to raise the debt ceiling three separate times during the Trump administration, but financial markets generally shrugged off those confrontations.).The stakes are somehow higher now.The House Budget Committee expects government debt to hit the current $31.4 trillion ceiling sometime early next year. If Democrats don’t act to raise that limit during lame duck — when their agenda’s likely to be packed with votes on judicial appointments and must-pass defense funding legislation — House Republicans could push the government toward a fiscal cliff around the same time many economists think the U.S. will enter a recession.In normal times — if such a thing even exists anymore — Congress would address a possible recession with government spending and stimulus. That’s politically impossible so long as consumer prices continue to soar.McHenry’s certainly not calling on Congress to approve new spending. But threatening the government’s ability to meet its basic obligations comes at considerable risk, he said. “It's an important function of the government for us to make good on the checks that we cash,” said McHenry.
Biden world eyeing lame-duck action on debt ceiling and a lift past 2024 - President Joe Biden hasn’t yet lost control of Congress. But already, his administration is preparing for its first major showdown with a newly emboldened Republican party.Senior Biden officials and allies are exploring a series of strategies for raising the debt ceiling, in a bid to avert a standoff with Republicans next year that threatens to further rattle financial markets and endanger the nation’s fragile economic recovery.The private discussions have focused largely on whether Congress can and should head off the high-stakes conflict before it begins by striking a lame-duck session deal to lift the debt limit — or, in a sign of the grave concerns within the party, deploying a procedural tool that would allow Democrats to unilaterally pass an increase. Under consideration is a debt ceiling hike that would extend past the 2024 election, in effect removing the drama for the rest of Biden’s term.The debate comes as several Republicans have advocated for using the debt ceiling to extract concessions from the White House, and reflects growing fears in Democratic and economic circles that the GOP may be willing to put the country’s credit and financial stability at risk in pursuit of its political goals.The U.S. has never defaulted on its debt. But such a move would immediately send the economy into a tailspin, spike interest rates and reverberate across the globe.“It’s just over-the-top lunacy to go down that path, but I think the odds are rising that we will,” Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said of breaching the debt ceiling. “If we’re not in a recession by then, we will be.”The White House is unlikely to land on a way forward until after the midterms, and could still allow the issue to spill into 2023, when a new Congress will be sworn in. In public, officials have refused to discuss any priorities beyond the election — insisting that Democrats still have a shot at holding their House and Senate majorities.Biden, who as vice president was at the center of Obama-era debt ceiling brinkmanship, has ruled out abolishing the debt limit, deeming it an “irresponsible” idea. But he’s seized on Republicans’ rhetoric around it in the final days of the midterm campaign, warning the GOP will tank the economy if given control of Congress.
Trump: ‘They ought to impeach Mitch McConnell’ if he backs debt ceiling elimination --Former President Trump says that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) should be impeached if he backs a plan for the debt ceiling to be eliminated over fears that House Republicans could cause the U.S. to default on the nation’s credit. When asked by conservative radio host John Fredericks on Thursday about chatter surrounding the possibility of Congress effectively eliminating the debt limit, the ex-president lambasted the idea.“It’s crazy what’s happening with this debt ceiling. Mitch McConnell keeps allowing it to happen. I mean, they ought to impeach Mitch McConnell if he allows that,” Trump said. “Frankly, something has to be — they have something on him. How he approves this thing is incredible.” Members of the Senate and House cannot be impeached, though both chambers can remove a lawmaker with a two-thirds vote. The president is not involved in that process. A McConnell spokesman declined to comment.
Manchin eyes defense bill for stalled permitting reform - Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin is working to get his stymied permitting reform into the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, according to comments the West Virginia Democratic senator made Wednesday.“I’ve tried to put it in the continuing resolution, and I’m working now on getting it in the National Defense Authorization,” Manchin said at Stanford University’s Global Energy Forum.Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle said they would be more willing to negotiate a permitting reform deal with more time for haggling and without the threat of a government shutdown (E&E Daily, Sept. 28).Progressives lined up against the legislation to streamline environmental reviews, accusing Manchin of wanting to facilitate the use of fossil fuels at the expense of environmental justice. Republicans felt the package didn’t go far enough to eliminate regulatory burdens. The GOP also didn’t want to give Manchin a win ahead of the midterm elections.Lawmakers consider the NDAA and upcoming end-of-year omnibus spending legislation as the two most realistic options for getting the permitting reform legislation done this Congress.Manchin and Democratic leaders are motivated to address permitting concerns this year before a possible Republican takeover of Congress. President Joe Biden in recent weeks reiterated his support for changes.But the effort’s future may depend on the election results. Many Democrats remain opposed and Republicans may prefer waiting until next year, when they may have more leverage (E&E Daily, Sept. 13). The NDAA is intended to authorize funding for military-related programs but often carries a host of other priorities. An amendment from Manchin to support domestic uranium enrichment capabilities is set for inclusion in the Senate version of the bill when lawmakers return later this month (Greenwire, Oct. 12).
‘Manchin calls for deal on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid in new Congress - Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Thursday called for a broad bipartisan deal to protect the solvency of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, popular programs that face serious funding issues over the next few decades. “You’re going to get your financial house in order. We cannot live with this crippling debt,” Manchin, whose pivotal vote both delayed and helped pass big pieces of President Biden’s agenda, told Fortune’s Alan Murray at a CEO conference. “If we don’t look at the trust funds that are going bankrupt, whether they be Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, highway, all the ones — there are tremendous problems right now,” Manchin said when asked where he sees areas of potential compromise in Washington after the Nov. 8 midterm elections. “If we can’t come to grips of how we face the financial challenge that this country has, then we’re all going to be paying a price that we can’t afford,” he said. Manchin, who sank Biden’s ambitious $3 trillion Build Back Better agenda in December, has often talked about the financial challenges facing Social Security and Medicaid. The Social Security Administration announced last year that it is not projected to have the funds to pay full benefits past 2033. In February, Manchin proposed addressing that shortfall by increasing the amount of income subject to taxation to fund Social Security from $147,000 to $400,000. And Manchin pushed back hard against Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) effort to expand Medicare to include vision, dental and hearing benefits by arguing that the core program itself was in danger because of the soaring federal debt. “My big concern right now is the 2026 deadline [for] Medicare insolvency and if no one’s concerned about that, I’ve got people — that’s a lifeline. Medicare and Social Security is a lifeline for people back in West Virginia, most people around the country,” Manchin told reporters in October of last year. If Manchin continues to push for a bipartisan deal to shore up the finances of Social Security and Medicare, he could have a negotiating partner in Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has proposed broad entitlement reform on several previous occasions.
The Military-Industrial Media Complex Strikes Again - Ever get the sense there are things our media hides from us? Hmm. Ever wonder why enormous protests against the policies of the Exceptional Empire and its attack dog, NATO, seem, um, to be downplayed? Ever think our corporate news outlets behave more like the propaganda arm of our neoconservative state department and military than a free press? Well, if so, you may be onto something.Lots of Europeans are unhappy about NATO, the Ukraine war, sanctions on Russia and the wild inflation and deindustrialization – which will result in gargantuan unemployment – those sanctions caused. As their living standards sink like stones, Europeans know who is to blame, namely their supposedly great ally across the Atlantic, and many have soured on their so-called alliance with the hegemon. But Washington doesn’t seem to care. Let the Europeans go broke and protest. The important thing is not reporting this news to the American people, who, if they heard about it, might get a subversive inkling that their government had not behaved in an entirely honorable manner.Meanwhile lies swarm everywhere. Some unintentional, others not. Most recently we have U.S. joint chiefs of staff chairman Mark Milley claiming that if Ukraine falls, the current world order will collapse. Sadly, this is hogwash. What will collapse are the tumescent egos of U.S. and European politicos and military men. Not surprisingly, they conflate that with the world order. But there are other, far more sinister reasons to make such garishly incendiary pronouncements, namely to prepare the American population for the unthinkable – and it is unthinkable, because if the U.S. attacks Russia with nukes, both the U.S. and Russia will be annihilated. Will Biden and his generals get a nuclear war? Unclear. But what’s clear as day is that Americans travel like lemmings to their doom, thanks to the fibs of their rulers and media.Somehow all the big news gets blacked out. Like China dumping $100 billion worth of U.S. treasuries and what that means if this becomes a trend (I’ll tell you what it means: we’re $30 trillion in debt and we can’t pay, so when we cart SUVs full of cash to the supermarket, we’ll make those Weimar wheelbarrows look petite). Or how sanctions on Russian energy backfired and caused ruinous inflation in Europe, pretty awful inflation here in the U.S. and pushed the whole west toward recession…or maybe ultimately depression. Or how Biden’s ever more reckless sanctions on China could wind up bankrupting us all. China is, after all the chief U.S. trading partner. Sanction China, as Biden recently did to its chip and semiconductor sector, and prices for everything explode upwards.But money isn’t everything. What about Biden’s devil-may-care attitude toward continued human life on this planet, which he endangers every time he opens his mouth to bloviate that the U.S. will throw its military into the fray, should Taiwan and China go to war? True, Biden’s bellicose pronunciamentos do make the news – he is, after all, the ruler of one of the most violent empires in human history – but details of their global life-and-death implications, namely that they could kill us all? Not so much. No, this news is not of interest to the editorial bigwigs who tell us what to think. They’re too busy stuffing our heads with bubble gum for the brain like rubbish about Tik Tok, or celebrity drivel or anything else deeply stupid enough to cretinize viewers and readers, so they won’t notice that their utility bills doubled in recent months, or their grocery bills shot up many percentage points, or the world is closer to being incinerated in a nuclear apocalypse than it has ever been.But they notice anyway. And even though they may lack the finely tuned mental framework to fit it all together, thanks to their news consumption habits, lots of people have begun to glimpse that Washington’s idiocy could get them blown up tout de suite and meanwhile is bleeding them dry and will very soon be bleeding them drier. Hence the public’s growing reluctance to keep handing Ukraine, the most corrupt country in Europe, blank checks. The GOP even climbed onto the bandwagon and announced it won’t fund this misbegotten war if it regains congress. I, for one, will be astonished if Republicans have the backbone to keep that promise. Anyway, Biden plans to preempt this oath by forking over more billions to Kiev now. This will not, ahem, help the Dems, which is probably what Republicans count on. But then Biden gets to look like he’s a man of principle (the show must go on), while the rest of us go broke and calculate our distance from atomic ground zero. Americans struggle with utility bills, grocery and gas prices, medical and educational debt. They don’t need to fund defense contractors to the tune of billions of dollars so Ukrainians and Russians can kill each other halfway around the world. And they certainly don’t need a war that has humanity teetering on the brink of nuclear Armageddon.
Russia Says U.S. Lowering 'Nuclear Threshold' With Newer Bombs in Europe (Reuters) -Russia said on Saturday that the accelerated deployment of modernised U.S. B61 tactical nuclear weapons at NATO bases in Europe would lower the "nuclear threshold" and that Russia would take the move into account in its military planning. Russia has about 2,000 working tactical nuclear weapons while the United States has around 200 such weapons, half of which are at bases in Italy, Germany, Turkey, Belgium and the Netherlands. Amid the Ukraine crisis, Politico reported on Oct. 26 that the United States told a closed NATO meeting this month that it would accelerate the deployment of a modernised version of the B61, the B61-12, with the new weapons arriving at European bases in December, several months earlier than planned. "We cannot ignore the plans to modernize nuclear weapons, those free-fall bombs that are in Europe," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told state RIA news agency. The 12-ft B61-12 gravity bomb carries a lower yield nuclear warhead than many earlier versions but is more accurate and can penetrate below ground, according to research by the Federation of American Scientists published in 2014. "The United States is modernizing them, increasing their accuracy and reducing the power of the nuclear charge, that is, they turn these weapons into 'battlefield weapons', thereby reducing the nuclear threshold," Grushko said. The Pentagon said it was not going to discuss the details of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and that the premise of the Politico article was wrong as the United States had long planned the modernisation of its B61 nuclear weapons. "Modernization of U.S. B61 nuclear weapons has been underway for years, and plans to safely and responsibly swap out older weapons for the upgraded B61-12 versions are part of a long-planned and scheduled modernization effort," Pentagon spokesman Oscar Seara said. "It is in no way linked to current events in Ukraine and was not sped up in any way," Seara said in an emailed statement.
Russia Says US Lowering 'Nuclear Threshold' - A Russian official said Saturday that the US is lowering the “nuclear threshold” by sending an upgraded version of its B61 nuclear bomb to NATO bases in Europe. The B61 is the US’s primary thermonuclear gravity bomb, and it is being modernized into a newer weapon known as the B61-12. Politico reported last week that the US told NATO allies at a recent meeting that it is deploying the B-61-12 to Europe to replace older bombs by this December, a faster timeline than the originally planned spring deployment. “We cannot ignore the plans to modernize nuclear weapons, those free-fall bombs that are in Europe,” said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, according to Russia’s RIA news agency. The US has approximately 100 B61s currently stored at air bases in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the B61-12s carry a lower yield and are more accurate than older B61s.“The United States is modernizing them, increasing their accuracy and r educing the power of the nuclear charge, that is, they turn these weapons into ‘battlefield weapons,’ thereby reducing the nuclear threshold,” Grushko said.The B61s deployed in Europe are part of the US’s nuclear arsenal that are considered tactical weapons, which have smaller yields than strategic ones. The US has an estimated 200 tactical nuclear weapons, while Russia is said to have about 2,000. US tactical nuclear weapons range from between 0.3 and 170 kilotons (the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of 15 kilotons).The plans to deploy the B61-12s to Europe by December have puzzled experts as the accelerated timeline does little but raises tensions with Russia. The Pentagon insists its B61-12 plans have nothing to do with the current situation and denies the characterization of the Politico report. Another part of the B61-12 upgrade is that it will allow the bomb to be carried by all US and allied bombers and fighter jets. The revelation of the planned deployment came as NATO was holding its nuclear Steadfast Noon exercises, which are due to conclude on Sunday. The drills were hosted by Belgium and involved 14 NATO members and about 60 aircraft that simulated dropping nuclear bombs.
Russia Hating - Ukraine is a country we are just getting to know. What is more important is to hate Russia: an emotion in which Americans have been well trained. Media workers and the experts they interview, one notices, can’t help stumbling occasionally: “the Soviet Union – I mean, Russia.” A history of contempt takes us back to an entity at once exotic and primitive, suspended in time and space.This Russia hovers between barbarism and modernity, between Asia and Europe, an uncertain profile that has long troubled the Western mind. But the task has now been simplified: Hate Putin, hate “Putin’s Russia,” hate Russia – before, during, and after the fact, and in excess of the facts. And the Russian people? We will come back to them.The Western moral calculus that ramps up war fever can be detected in a headline like “Fear of Reprisal for Bridge Blast Dims Kyiv’s Joy” (The New York Times, October 10, print edition). You sense it, too, in the teacherly posture of news analysis: “Putin’s Plan to Bomb Kyiv Into Submission? History Says It Won’t Work” (the Times, October 11). Was that, in fact, Putin’s idea? Pretty clearly, he did not decide to bomb Kyiv until Ukraine blew up the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia. The tone of polite journalism on this subject hardly differs from that of the tabloids: “How Moscow Grabs Kids and Makes Them Russians” (ABC News, linked onDrudge Report, October 13).A recent on-the-ground story by Jeffrey Gettleman in The New York Timesconveyed the experiences of a freelance American soldier in Ukraine; the long headline and deck in the print edition brought together the politics and human interest and the necessary ethical judgment: “American Finds in Ukraine the War He Sought: A Morally Clear Effort After Tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.” What is the meaning of the second part of the headline? War is a kind of health, it says, if only we find the right war. But the phrase “moral clarity” has also become a mantra for left-wing activist reporters. It instructs you to know where you are headed before you set out to write. Don’t let a morally clear viewpoint be confused by subtle, complex, and inconvenient facts: Those are the boring middle part of the story, and they can safely be skipped. Clarity is crystallized by silent omissions and an economy of truth. Your choice of adjectives and adverbs, meanwhile, will vouch for your passion.The media in the US and in other NATO countries have achieved a harmonious moral clarity, and they are skipping the part with the inconvenient facts. “Putin’s Russia” functions as a kind of suture that binds the relevant wartime emotions to a generalized hatred of Russia – Russia past, Russia present, and the Russia to come. An exemption is carved out for courageous Russians who protest openly, or the disaffected ones who have left the country or hope to exit soon. How many does that leave us to hate? Possibly quite a few.
New Study Finds The Rest Of The World Supports China And Russia – Caitlin Johnstone -- A new Australian Financial Review article titled “Australia’s alliances in Asia are a tale of two regions” candidly discusses the Biden administration’s recent sanctions geared toward kneecapping the Chinese tech industry in what the author James Curran correctly says “is unambiguously a new cold war.” Curran describes the impossible task Australia has of straddling the ever-widening divide between its number one trading partner China and its number one “security” partner the US, while Washington continually pressures Canberra and ASEAN states toward greater and greater enmity with Beijing.“ASEAN countries, as much as Australia, have much at stake in resisting the onset of a bifurcated world,” Curran writes.But that bifurcation is being shoved through at breakneck pace, using both hard and soft power measures. Australians have been hammered with increasingly aggressive anti-China propaganda, and as a result nearly half of them now say they would be willing to go to war to defend Taiwan from an attack by the mainland, with a third saying they’d support a war against China over the Solomon Islands. A recent Cambridge study found that this hostility toward China has been on the rise in recent years not just in Australia but throughout the “liberal democracies” of the US-centralized power alliance. But what’s interesting is that public opinion is exactly reversed in the much larger remainder of the Earth’s population, with people outside the US power cluster just as fond of China as those within that power cluster are hostile toward it. This relationship is largely mirrored with Russia as well.“Among the 1.2bn people who inhabit the world’s liberal democracies, three-quarters (75%) now hold a negative view of China, and 87% a negative view of Russia,” the report reads. “However, for the 6.3bn people who live in the rest of the world, the picture is reversed. In these societies, 70% feel positively towards China, and 66% positively towards Russia.”The report finds that in the “developing” world, approval of China is higher than approval of the US: “For the first time ever, slightly more people in developing countries (62%) are favourable towards China than towards the United States (61%). This is especially so among the 4.6bn people living in countries supported by the Belt and Road Initiative, among whom almost two-thirds hold a positive view of China, compared to just a quarter (27%) in non-participating countries.” The report finds that while Russia’s approval has plummeted in the west, it maintains broad support in the east despite the invasion of Ukraine: “However, the real terrain of Russia’s international influence lies outside of the West. 75% of respondents in South Asia, 68% in Francophone Africa, 62% in Southeast Asia continue to view the country positively in spite of the events of this year.”
Putin Skewers US Ineptitude - Speaking on Oct. 27 at the Valdai International Discussion Club, Russian President Vladimir Putin questioned the sanity of those who would "spoil relations with China at the same time they are supplying billions-worth of weapons to Ukraine in a fight against Russia."In answer to a question on "the growing tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan," Putin labeled visits by top U.S. officials to Taiwan a "provocation." Putin added:"Frankly, I do not know why they are doing this. … Are they sane? It seems that this runs completely counter to common sense and logic … This is simply crazy."It may seem that there is a subtle, profound plot behind this. But I think there is nothing there, no subtle thought. It is just nonsense and arrogance, nothing else. … Such irrational actions are rooted in arrogance and a sense of impunity."What kind of people are behind what Putin describes? It turns out they come from the same stock of white-privileged, exceptional, ivy-mantled "Best and Brightest" that brought us Vietnam. This time, it is President Joe Biden who brought them in. Giving Biden the benefit of the doubt, I believe he was/is not smart enough to understand that they have made a big mess of things.These are the sophomores, totally ignorant of how the Russia-China relationship had evolved, who told Biden at the Geneva summit on June 16, 2021 that "Russia is in a very, very difficult spot right now … being squeezed by China. …," which Biden parroted planeside before departing Geneva.In his Valdai speech Putin quoted from a Harvard Commencement address by Alexander Solzhenitsyn:"A continuous blindness of superiority is typical of the West; it upholds the belief that vast regions everywhere on our planet should develop and mature to the level of present-day Western Systems."Putin adds:"Solzhenitsyn said this in 1978. Nothing has changed. … Belief in one’s infallibility is very dangerous; it is only one step away from the desire of the infallible to destroy those they do not like. … "They arrogantly rejected all other variants and forms of government by the people and, I want to emphasize this, did so contemptuously and disdainfully … as if everyone else were second-rate, while they were exceptional." The day after Putin’s speech, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin, asked for comment, said: "We highly appreciate the positive remarks by President Putin on China-Russia relations; they have maintained the momentum of robust development." The foreign ministry spokesman added that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the day Putin spoke at Valdai, and that the two diplomats "exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis."
US Accuses North Korea Of Hiding Large Munitions Shipments To Russia - The United States is once again accusing North Korea of secretly helping the Russian war effort in Ukraine, at a moment there's been international condemnation of Iranian drones being used against Ukrainian cities. "In September, the (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) publicly denied that it intended to provide ammunition to Russia," National Security Council official and spokesman John Kirby told CNN. "However, our information indicates that the DPRK is covertly supplying Russia’s war in Ukraine with a significant number of artillery shells, while obfuscating the real destination of the arms shipments by trying to make it appear as though they are being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa.""We will continue to monitor whether these shipments are received," Kirby said, though without specifying what evidence or intelligence the US has confirming the shipments.In the summer into early September, Western media outlets widely reported on accusations that North Korea was shipping weapons to the Russian military, including millions of rockets and artillery shells, which followed earlier unverified claims that Pyongyang said it was willing to send 100,000 of its troops to help Russia in Ukraine.While those allegations never saw any level of confirmation, the Pentagon and US intelligence continued harboring suspicions of covert weapons shipments. It appears this 'declassified intelligence' is now being shared openly by Kirby in order to highlight that Russia is rapidly depleting its munitions and battlefield supplies amid the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east and south.
US to fund tanks for Ukraine in $400M package - The Pentagon on Friday announced it will be funding tanks sent to Ukraine for the first time, part of a $400 million military assistance package that will also provide armored vehicles, drones and a budget to refurbish air defense missiles. The additional military, ground and air capabilities come as Ukrainian forces are pushing forward on an offensive to retake the southern city of Kherson, even as they come under increased aerial attacks from Russia, including from Iranian-supplied drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had called for NATO to supply tanks within the first weeks of Russia’s invasion, which began on Feb. 24. On Friday he tweeted that Ukraine is “thankful to [President Biden] and the people of [the United States] for another $400 military assistance package.” The tanks mark the first provision of such equipment from U.S. funds since the war in Ukraine began, with some of the vehicles expected to be delivered by the end of December. The weapons package includes 90 refurbished T-72 tanks, which will all come from the Czech Republic. The United States will pay for 45 of them to be refurbished, while the Netherlands will pay to refurbish the other 45, according to Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh. Also included in the package is 250 M1117 Armored Security Vehicles and 1,100 new Phoenix Ghost drones, although Singh did not “have an exact timeline for when this next tranche” of drones will be delivered. Despite Russia’s efforts, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters that Ukraine is making “incremental progress” in the south.
Marjorie Taylor Greene: ‘Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine’ - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) promised on Thursday that “not another penny will go to Ukraine” if Republicans retake control of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections. “The only border they care about is Ukraine, not America’s southern border,” Greene said of Democrats at a Trump rally in Sioux City, Iowa. “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first. They don’t care about our border or our people.”House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Ky.) similarly suggested last month that Republicans would rein in Ukraine spending if they retake the House, as the GOP appears poised to do, though he stopped far short of saying the faucet would be shut off entirely.“Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing, and it can’t be a blank check,” McCarthy told Punchbowl News in October.The comments earned McCarthy backlash from Democrats, as well as some of his fellow Republicans. The House minority leader appears to be at odds with Senate Minority LeaderMitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has spearheaded Republican support for Ukraine aid.
Why Are Critics Afraid To Confront the Ukraine Lobby? - There is a concerted effort in the United States and Europe to intimidate, smear, and silence anyone who dares criticize Ukraine’s government or the Biden administration’s policy on the Russia-Ukraine war. The latest example was the decision of the Congressional Progressive Caucus to retract an open letter it had sent to the president just days earlier urging him to give higher priority to diplomacy as a way of ending the bloodshed. Representative Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), chair of the caucus, offered an explanation that quickly drew derision from multiple quarters. "The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting."Ironically, the letter itself was a rather tepid venture. Indeed, the signatories went out of their way to emphasize their support for Ukraine and praise the Biden administration for the financial and military aid it had given to Kyiv. The fawning opening paragraph epitomized the tone. "We write with appreciation for your commitment to Ukraine’s legitimate struggle against Russia’s war of aggression. Your support for the self-defense of an independent, sovereign, and democratic state has been supported by Congress, including through various appropriations of military, economic and humanitarian aid in furtherance of this cause. Your administration’s policy was critical to enable the Ukrainian people, through their courageous fighting and heroic sacrifices, to deal a historic military defeat to Russia, forcing Russia to dramatically scale back the stated goals of the invasion."However, the letter went on to advocate a limited course modification. "Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict. For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire." The pro-war lobby’s response made it clear that even such modest apostasy would not be tolerated.The cowardly retreat by the Congressional Progressive Caucus is not the only recent example of opponents of the current policy caving under pressure. In August, Amnesty International issued a report criticizing Ukraine’s military for using civilians as human shields and committing other abuses in its war effort. Predictably, the report generated a political, diplomatic and media firestorm that Kyiv orchestrated. Ukraine’s supporters in the West even accused Amnesty of echoing Vladimir Putin’s propaganda – a smear that should be even less credible than the usual attempts to silence criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky’s regime. In reality, the report was well-supported by multiple forms of evidence.Faced with the tsunami of vilification, Amnesty officials sought to placate their critics while still standing by the accuracy of the document. They issued a statement regretting any "distress and anger" the report might have caused. That ploy did not satiate Kyiv’s zealous supporters. Multiple Amnesty officials connected to the report resigned under pressure during the following weeks. When a brave and honorable organization like Amnesty International has to throw its own personnel to the wolves, it is compelling evidence of the dangerous strength of the Ukraine lobby in the West.
Biden froze out China’s ambassador. He may regret that. - China’s ambassador to the U.S. just became one of the more powerful people in the Chinese government.But the Biden administration has given him the cold shoulder for much of his tenure — a posture that could further complicate the touchy relations between the superpowers.For months after arriving in Washington in September 2021, Qin Gang was limited to meetings with just a handful of U.S. officials, according to two people with knowledge of the interactions. One of those said that the shortlist of officials made available to Qin included Kurt Campbell, the National Security Council’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, and Laura Rosenberger, NSC’s senior director for China. That narrow access came despite repeated requests to meet with more senior administration officials, said those people — who were granted anonymity to share private conversations.The White House rejected this characterization, saying senior officials have regularly engaged with Qin.But Bonnie Glaser, Asia Program director at the German Marshall Fund, said she has heard a similar account from Chinese Embassy officials about Qin’s D.C. reception.“The story from the embassy even as recently as early this year was that Qin Gang wasn’t being seen by U.S. officials, and he was therefore spending time at the sub-national level … going to visit mayors and governors,” Glaser said.That left Qin navigating Washington through lower-level interactions: meetings with other foreign ambassadors, dinners with media executives and reliance on a corporate consultant who volunteered herself as a go-between with Washington’s elite.Now the White House’s reluctance to engage may come back to haunt it, following Qin’s appointment last week to the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee — a post that places him close to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s inner circle and could put Qin on the path to become foreign minister.
How Companies Are Dealing with US Restrictions on Chip Exports to China -The U.S. Commerce Department announced a series of new trade restrictions earlier this month that banned the export of some computer processing chips to China.The restrictions affect not only U.S. businesses selling to China, but also any company whose products contain American chip technology. The U.S. government action has many companies considering how to move forward under the new rules.Numerous American technology companies doing major business with China are facing possible severe damage to their profits. Other companies that manufacture technology products in China are having to withdraw U.S. employees because the ban also bars "U.S. persons" from supporting technology covered by the ban.James Lewis is a senior vice president and director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. He told VOA the new restrictions seem to be "reshaping the market.""The Koreans, the Taiwanese and some American companies are really nervous about it,” Lewis said. “I mean, everyone's asking, 'What can I still sell to China?' And in some cases, the answer is 'nothing,'" he added.In Britain’s Financial Times newspaper, U.S. national editor and columnist Edward Luce wrote that "Joe Biden this month launched a full-blown economic war on China."So far, chip companies have reacted carefully to the ban. While recognizing the government's concerns, they have noted they were not given a chance to discuss the policy with U.S. officials before it was announced.
Call Them the Biden-Trump Tariffs Now by The WSJ Editorial Board: U.S. beverage makers and consumers continue to pay for tariffs on aluminum that the President won’t lift. President Biden has rolled back some of Donald Trump’s destructive tariffs, but not enough, and they’re still doing economic harm. New analyses of Mr. Trump’s Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs show how consumers and manufacturers are still paying for the border taxes that benefit only a few companies. A study by Harbor Aluminum for the Beer Institute finds that the 10% tariff on imported aluminum cost U.S. beverage manufacturers $1.7 billion from March 2018 through August 2022. About 93% of the $1.7 billion has been pocketed by domestic aluminum producers and smelters in the U.S. and Canada. Only $120 million has gone to the U.S. government.
"It's Already Happening" - Roubini Warns "World War III Has Effectively Begun" - Economist Nouriel Roubini, who's been dubbed 'Dr. Doom' for his gloomy-yet-correct prediction of the 2008 market meltdown, is making headlines again during a series of interviews promoting his new book "Megathreats"."We have to worry about everything at the same time, as all these megathreats are interconnected..." When asked if we're "there again" in reference to the 2008 great financial crisis, Roubini replied: "Yes, we’re here again.""But in addition to the economic, monetary, and financial risks - and there are new ones - now we’re going towards stagflation like we’ve never seen since the 1970s."Private and public debt levels globally have exploded from 200 percent of GDP in 2000 to around 350 percent of GDP today, he said, blaming ultra-loose central bank policies that made borrowing cheap and encouraged households, businesses, and countries to take on ever greater debt loads even though many were barely solvent.But now, facing persistently high inflation, central banks led by the Fed have embarked on aggressive rate hiking cycles, with Roubini predicting that highly indebted and operationally fragile “zombie” institutions are going to go bankrupt.“That’s why we’re not only going to have inflation and stagflation but we’ll have a stagflationary debt crisis,” Roubini predicted.In the 1970s, debt levels were far lower than today and so advanced economies didn’t suffer debt crises when the Fed jacked up rates to around 20 percent.“Today we have the worst of the 70s with a massive amount of stagflationary negative supply shock,” he added. Roubini has called predictions for a brief and mild U.S. recession “delusional.”He told Bloomberg in an interview at the end of July that he expects the United States to be hit by a “severe recession and a severe debt and financial crisis.”Roubini said that, in addition to economic, monetary, and financial risks currently in play, the world faces higher geopolitical risks.During an extensive interview with Der Spiegel, the economist said he preferred "Dr. Realist" as he detailed some of the world's most acute problems.When speaking about major global threats, Roubini mentioned the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, adding that Iran and Israel are “on a collision course” as well."It is already happening. The U.S. has just passed new regulations banning the export of semiconductors to Chinese companies for AI or quantum computing or military use. Europeans would like to continue doing business with the U.S. and China, but it won't be possible because of national security issues.""...just this morning, I read that the Biden administration expects China to attack Taiwan sooner rather than later. Honestly, World War III has already effectively begun, certainly in Ukraine and cyberspace."
Guatemala used US-sourced jeeps to ‘intimidate’ US Embassy: GAO report -Guatemalan officials in 2018 circled the U.S. Embassy in U.S.-sourced military jeeps in an operation interpreted by American diplomats as an “act of intimidation,” according to a new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The offending patrols happened in late August 2018 after former Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales announced his intention to expel members of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a United Nations anti-corruption panel that had set its sights on Morales. “According to [Defense Department (DOD)] and State documentation, on the day the decision was announced, seven DOD-provided weapons mounted Jeeps circled the U.S. Embassy and were later observed parked on a street directly in front of the CICIG headquarters in Guatemala City. The U.S. government viewed this as an act of intimidation, according to DOD officials,” reads the GAO report. The jeeps were provided to Guatemala as security assistance to aid the country in counter-narcotics activity, but were not subject to a program where Pentagon officials monitor the end-use of sensitive military equipment abroad. According to the report, U.S. officials raised the issue of misuse with their Guatemalan counterparts, who said the jeeps were not used for intimidation purposes, but to “protect different justice and security entities.”
US Will No Longer "Waste Its Time" On Iran Nuclear Deal Talks --On Monday, President Biden’s special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, said the US isn’t going to “waste its time” on talks with Tehran to revive the nuclear deal and would use a military option as a “last resort” against Iran.Negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, have been stalled since early September. The Biden administration hasn’t officially said it’s done with the talks, but Malley’s comments are the surest sign that diplomacy between Washington and Tehran is dead.Malley echoed other administration officials and said that the JCPOA is “not our focus right now” and that the US is going to focus on other issues, including supporting protesters inside Iran. “It is not on our agenda. We are not going to focus on something which is inert when other things are happening… and we are not going to waste our time on it… if Iran has taken the position it has taken,” Malley said at a Carnegie Endowment event, according to Axios.There’s no sign that Iran is working to develop a nuclear weapon, but Malley still threatened the US would use military action as a “last resort” to prevent Tehran from doing so.“We will use other tools, and in last resort, a military option if necessary, to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” he said.The US has accused Iran of making “extraneous demands” during the JCPOA negotiations. But the Biden administration had taken a hardline approach in the talks by refusing to lift all Trump-era sanctions.The stance forced Iran to negotiate what sanctions would be lifted in exchange for it bringing its nuclear program back into the strict limits set by the JCPOA.
Harris calls for Iran’s ouster from UN group charged with protecting women’s rights --Vice President Harris on Wednesday called for Iran to be removed from the United Nations Commission on the Status of Women, the body charged with promoting gender equality and addressing issues related to women’s rights. “Iran has demonstrated through its denial of women’s rights and brutal crackdown on its own people that it is unfit to serve on this Commission; Iran’s very presence discredits the integrity of its membership and the work to advance its mandate,” Harris said in a statement. “This is why today the United States is announcing our intention to work with our partners to remove Iran from the UN Commission on the Status of Women,” the vice president wrote. Iran, which began a four-year term on the U.N. commission earlier this year, has come under fire for its treatment of women after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in police custody after being arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s dress code.
US Has No Plans To Withdraw From Syria Or End Sanctions: White House - The Coordinator of Strategic Communications for Washington’s National Security Council, John Kirby, said on 28 October that the US has no plans to either ease the Caesar Act sanctions against Syria or to withdraw its illegally occupying forces from the country.The Caesar Act, passed by Congress in 2019, imposes harsh sanctions against Syria and targets any state, business, or individual involved with the Damascus government.In an attempt to justify the US presence in Syria, Kirby said that "only a thousand American soldiers" were stationed there, whose mission he claimed was solely to combat ISIS.The US official also claimed that Washington does not wish to shift "the balance of power" in Syria, suggesting that it has abandoned its regime change policy against Damascus.Despite this claim, the US continues to support and arm militant groups in the country, including the CIA-trained, anti-government Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT) faction, which holds positions within the Al-Tanf base. Last month, a Russian official claimed that MaT was planning an indiscriminate, false flag operation against civilians in order to pin the blame on the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).Despite also claiming that its presence in Syria aims to deter ISIS, US forces only carry out superficial strikes and operations against the extremist group, killing civilians in the process, while the SAA continues to pursue the organization thoroughly.Instead, US troops in Syria are preoccupied with their persistent and illegal oil-looting operations, the latest of which took place on 26 October. Lately, Washington has even stepped up its looting of Syrian oil in order to alleviate the man-made energy crisis it faces, as well as to ease the effect of the latest decision by OPEC+ to cut output production levels. According to the Syrian Oil Ministry, US forces have stolen more than 80 percent of the country’s daily oil output. Damascus and Moscow have both repeatedly and strongly condemned the US occupation, as well as its sanctions and policy of looting Syria’s natural resources.
America and Saudi Arabia are locked in a bitter battle over oil. The stakes are massive — The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia is one of the most important on the planet. And lately, it’s also been one of the most awkward.Angry officials in Washington vowed “consequences” after Saudi-led OPEC sharply cut oil production earlier this month, driving up pump prices just weeks before the midterm elections.US lawmakers are threatening steps that were unthinkable not long ago, including banning weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and unleashing the Justice Department to file a lawsuit against the country and other OPEC members for collusion.Riyadh has been caught off guard by the thirst for revenge from US politicians. And Saudi officials are hinting at payback – including dumping US debt – that could have huge ripple effects in financial markets and the real economy.Neither side is even trying to hide the tension. After a top Saudi official suggested the kingdom has decided to be the more mature party, a top White House official responded by saying, “It’s not like some high school romance here.”What happens next is critical.If this decades-old relationship devolves into a full-blown break-up, there could be enormous consequences for the world economy, not to mention international security. “This is a new low. We have seen a degradation in the US-Saudi relationship for years but this is the worst it’s been,” said Clayton Allen, director at the Eurasia Group.After trying and failing to persuade OPEC to ramp up oil production, President Joe Biden reversed his 2020 campaign promise to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” over its human rights record. Biden visited Saudi Arabia over the summer and even fist-bumped Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.US officials thought they reached a secret deal with Saudi Arabia to finally boost supply of oil through the end of the year, The New York Times reported this week.They were wrong.OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, responded by increasing oil production by a measly 100,000 barrels per day – the smallest increase in its history. The move was widely viewed as a “slap in the face” of the Biden administration.What came next was worse.In early October, OPEC+ announced plans to slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day – a move that briefly drove up oil and gasoline prices at a time of high inflation and infuriated US politicians.“Neither side seems to understand each other,” Allen said. “Riyadh underestimated the severity of the US backlash. And the US assumed we had an unspoken agreement.”
$30B of profits renews Big Oil's clash with White House - The two biggest U.S. oil and gas companies reported over $30 billion in combined earnings Friday, touching off another round of debate about the actions of domestic energy producers.President Joe Biden and the head of Exxon Mobil Corp. engaged in a long-distance verbal spat over the third-quarter results while a Democrat in Congress announced a new plan to block exports of U.S. gasoline during periods with high domestic prices.Exxon and Chevron Corp. said they’re benefiting from long-term investments they continued during the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic. The industry has argued the best way for Biden’s administration to help American consumers is by encouraging more oil and gas production in the United States. At the same time, companies are spending billions of dollars on dividends and share buybacks to reward their investors. “There has been discussion in the U.S. about our industry returning some of our profits directly to the American people,” Darren Woods, Exxon Mobil’s CEO, said Friday in prepared remarks. “In fact, that’s exactly what we’re doing in the form of our quarterly dividend.”Woods also argued against windfall profit taxes, which the European Union has imposed on certain energy companies.The White House, through Biden’s official Twitter account, responded, “Can’t believe I have to say this but giving profits to shareholders is not the same as bringing prices down for American families.”Exxon Mobil brought in $19.7 billion, its highest quarterly profit ever, and Chevron made $11.2 billion, the companies said. Overseas, the French oil producer TotalEnergies SE reported a quarterly profit Thursday of $6.6 billion and Shell PLC reported $8.3 billion for the quarter.The companies have benefited as Russia’s war in Ukraine and political maneuvering by Saudi Arabia and other energy-producing countries drove up oil prices and gas prices. Crude began to fall during the most recent quarter, and gasoline prices dropped from record highs, but the companies continued to profit as the price of natural gas has remained high.The industry broadly has also improved its bottom line by cutting costs, and many companies didn’t replace thousands of employees who were laid off when oil prices crashed after the Covid-19 pandemic hit in 2020. Exxon Mobil, for instance, said Friday it has cut costs by $6.4 billion compared to 2019.The price of gasoline and diesel also rose because some U.S. refineries closed during the pandemic. Companies began pulling in record margins for each barrel they processed into gasoline and diesel (Energywire, May 5).At the same time, analysts and the oil companies themselves have been saying the world needs to invest more in conventional oil and gas production as the world’s economy recovers from the pandemic.“We’re in a commodity business that goes through cycles,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “There are hard times as we saw just two years ago where we had enormous losses.”While a cycle can also result in “strong earnings,” Wirth said, the company has to invest through good and bad times. He said putting a new tax on the industry would not be productive.The Biden administration has tried to tamp down oil prices by releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but experts have said any relief was limited (Energywire, Oct. 24).Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) introduced a bill Friday that would prohibit the export of American-made gasoline while allowing diesel to be exported to Europe and other regions (Greenwire, Oct. 28). The bill doesn’t address oil exports.The Biden administration hasn’t endorsed the idea of a U.S. energy export ban, and oil companies have opposed the idea. In his interview with Bloomberg, Wirth suggested that a ban would have “unintended consequences.” But he said the administration could help consumers by waiving refining specifications for gasoline and diesel — and the Jones Act, which prohibits foreign-owned ships from transporting cargo between U.S. ports.
Biden issues a warning as he accuses oil and gas companies of 'war profiteering' off Russia's invasion of Ukraine — President Joe Biden escalated weeks of sharp warnings to energy producers on Monday by floating a so-called “windfall” tax on their corporate profits, calling out major gas companies for racking up gains from a spike in prices he attributes to Russia’s war in Ukraine. “Record profits today are not because they’re doing something new or innovative. The profits are a windfall of war,” Biden said in brief remarks from the Roosevelt Room alongside Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. The speech came as Americans face continued high prices at the gas pump in the final stretch of the midterm campaign season. Biden raised the possibility of pursuing the tax proposal, among other ideas, during hastily scheduled remarks at the White House Monday afternoon. It marked the latest in a series of policy and rhetorical efforts to battle high gas prices as Democrats brace for bruising midterm elections. Biden spoke just days after several global energy giants posted a round of massive corporate profits and after several months of Biden targeting oil executives in a push to drive private sector actions to increase production and capacity, and, in turn, drive down high prices at the pump. The president called on oil companies to “act beyond their narrow self-interest,” arguing they had a responsibility to “act in the interest of their consumers, their community and their country to invest in America by increasing production and refining capacity.” Biden, who has sought to display a grasp on inflation eight days before the midterm elections, also floated other restrictions for those companies that do not do so, which would require congressional approval. “If they don’t,” he warned, “they’re going to pay a higher tax on their excess profits and face higher restrictions.” Biden did not get into details or specifics of the restrictions, but said the administration would “work with Congress to look at these options that are available to us and others.” “It’s time for these companies to stop war profiteering, meet their responsibilities in this country and give the American people a break and still do very well,” Biden added.
Biden threatens higher taxes on oil companies if they do not work to lower gas prices - President Joe Biden threatened Monday to pursue higher taxes on oil company profits if industry giants do not work to cut gas prices. Biden has criticized oil companies that have made record-high profits as consumers struggle to keep up with high gas prices. The price of a gallon of gas was $3.76 on Monday, according to AAA, down from a record of over $5 in June but still higher than a year ago. "Their profits are a windfall of war," Biden said, referring to Russia's war in Ukraine, which prompted Western sanctions that reduced oil supply. "It's time for these companies to stop their war profiteering." "If they don't they're going to pay a higher tax on their excess profits," he said. With eight days to go before Election Day, White House messaging has focused on how Democrats are working to improve the economy and how Republicans would make it worse. Inflation and the economy consistently rank as the top issue for voters — and higher gas prices stretched consumer budgets for much of this year. Ahead of the election, he has highlighted efforts to reduce consumer costs in a range of other industries. Last week, Biden announced initiatives to address "junk fees" from banks, airlines, cable companies and other industries, aiming to "provide families with more breathing room." Any new taxes on oil profits would need congressional approval, which may prove difficult as Democrats control both chambers of Congress by slim margins. Progressives like Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts previously floated the idea. Republicans, who generally support lower taxes, also hope to win back one or both chambers of Congress in the Nov. 8 midterms. Biden stressed that he is "a capitalist" but added that companies are making "profits so high it's hard to believe." Shell made $9.5 billion in profits in the third quarter, almost double what it made in the same period last year, Biden said. Exxon's profits in the third quarter were $18.7 billion, nearly triple what Exxon made last year and the most in its 152-year history. Biden has made pleas to oil companies to increase production rather than to enrich shareholders in recent weeks as the price of gas remains high. Earlier this month, Biden announced the release of 15 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The White House has released about 165 million barrels of crude from the reserve since the beginning of the year, out of a total that it said would be around 180 million.
Windfall Tax on Big Oil Is More US Politics Than Real Threat - President Joe Biden’s threat to slap a tax on oil-company profits is more bluster than threat as the clock runs out on the administration’s efforts to tame fuel prices ahead of midterm elections. Democrats have tried, and failed, for more than a decade to impose a so-called “windfall” tax on oil companies without success. With an evenly divided Senate and an eight-seat majority in the House looking increasingly vulnerable, Biden’s threat to tax what he described as the industry’s “windfall of war” will be nearly impossible to achieve.
We Told Big Oil Not to Invest. Don't Complain Now --The cure for high oil prices is high prices, or so says the commodity industry’s adage. Let the invisible hand of the free market work its magic. High prices will simultaneously reduce demand and increase supply, eventually making the good less expensive. But the axiom no longer seems to be governing the oil market. To be sure, the elevated cost of crude is suppressing appetite. But the other side of the equation — supply — isn’t working out. The industry simply hasn’t been reacting to high prices with more investment as it has before. This means demand will have to do all the work to rebalance the oil market. The result is likely to be a slower economy and more sustained energy costs than in the past. Why isn’t the supply lever working? Money certainly isn’t the problem. Big Oil has reported its best-ever six-month period, earning more than $100 billion in profits from April to September. Neither Exxon nor its competitors Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc have announced any major increases in spending beyond what they have already planned. Institutional investors, led by BlackRock Inc., have convinced virtually every oil executive to keep spending under control. In the past, some executives would have tried to kickstart a boom-to-bust cycle: Boost spending early, increase production and then cash in before prices crashed. Today, the pressure from shareholders to remain frugal is so strong and uniform across the industry that from the outside it almost looks like a cartel. And the result is cartel-like: Big Oil is collectively underinvesting by a lot. Last year, the industry spent $305 billion on oil exploration and production, significantly below what’s required to meet oil demand until the end of the decade based on the most likely scenarios. Let’s not kid ourselves. Oil companies are doing what we told them to do: Spend less on fossil fuel production. From green philanthropists to big Wall Street investors, the message has been nearly unanimous. One can hardly blame the executives for doing as they were told. The industry, of course, soon realized that spending less was rather good business, particularly when very few deviated. Only a handful of state-owned oil companies in the Middle East are today boosting their fossil fuel spending meaningfully. The industry has been calibrating for a world of peak oil and rapidly declining petroleum demand. But that world simply does not exist today, nor will it tomorrow or in the near future. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made that all too clear.
The oil and gas paradox threatening Biden’s party at the polls - President Joe Biden’s regulators have approved new oil and gas wells at a far faster pace than the Trump administration did during its first 21 months in office — a fact that undermines Republican election-year arguments about the causes of this year’s high gasoline prices.The U.S. has also produced more crude oil since Biden’s inauguration than it had done during the equivalent period of former President Donald Trump’s presidency, a POLITICO review of federal energy data shows.The Biden-era petroleum surge came despite his promises to shift the nation away from fossil fuels to combat climate change, as well as his unsuccessful efforts to end new oil and gas drilling on federal lands and waters. But it hasn’t shielded Biden from taking a political strafing over gasoline prices, which reached a record high in June and remain a potent campaign issue for next week’s midterm elections.The dynamic offers yet another reminder of how little power any president has to shape the gyrations of the energy markets.Democrats have blamed the gasoline price spike on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, production cuts by OPEC, lingering economic supply chain effects of the pandemic and price-gouging by oil companies — some of which reported record quarterly profits last week. On Monday, Biden accused the oil industry of “war profiteering” and threatened to push for stiffer taxes on the companies’ earnings.But Republicans have hammered one consistent message this year: Biden caused motorists’ pain at the pump by shutting down U.S. oil and gas production.“Joe Biden’s anti-energy agenda has destroyed American energy independence,” House Republicans tweeted last week as part of a cascade of similar GOP messages aired on social media and television appearances in the run-up to the election.An analysis of federal energy data shows a different story, however.From January 2021 to the end of September, Biden’s Interior Department approved 74 percent more well permits for oil and natural gas production than the agency had done during the comparable period of Trump’s term, according to figures from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management.Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas production has hit record highs, and oil output is expected to reach an all-time high next year. Even with the oil industry’s pandemic slump, the U.S. produced more than 15 percent more oil during Biden’s first 20 months than during the same period under Trump, according to POLITICO’s analysis of numbers from the Energy Information Administration.All told, the U.S. is still the world’s top oil and natural gas producer, as it had been under Trump, as well as the largest exporter of natural gas, gasoline and other transportation fuels.
The Lukoil Loophole- How Russian Oil Sidesteps Sanctions To End Up In The US - I describe the roundtrip process in which Russian oil refined in Italy makes its way to to the US. It's a real hoot... The Wall Street Journal has an interesting video that describes How Russian Crude Avoids Sanctions and Ends Up in the US.With an upfront ad, that is a free WSJ video link. Sanction Avoidance Process:
- US sanctions are on crude oil, not refined products.
- Lukoil, Russia's second largest oil and gas company was not sanctioned by the US.
- Lukoil's refinery in Sicily is the second largest in Italy and fifth largest in Europe.
- A Lukoil refinery in Italy once processed crude from multiple countries. Now it inputs are 93 percent from Russia.
- After refining, the country of origin is Italy, not Russia. This is due to longstanding practice of changing the country of origin to where oil is refined.
- The refined product then makes its way Exxon and Lukoil plants in New Jersey and Texas.
- Lukoil still has a gas station presence in the US and it distributes products to eleven states.
Republicans plan an energy agenda designed to keep Democrats on their heels --Republicans are preparing to advance an ambitious energy agenda if they win control of the House in next week’s elections — including faster approvals of fossil fuel projects and probes of how the Biden administration is spending its hundreds of billions in climate dollars.The plan, described by a dozen current and former House lawmakers, aides and outside allies, seeks to build on the political momentum that the GOP claimed on energy policy this year, as jumps in fuel and electricity prices battered President Joe Biden’s popularity and complicated his climate agenda.The GOP effort would include components of a strategy that top House Republican Kevin McCarthy released in June that called for measures to stimulate oil and gas production, ease permitting regulations and seek to reduce reliance on China and Russia for critical materials. It also would propose actions that lawmakers of both parties may be able to agree on, such as faster approvals for low-carbon energy sources like renewable power, small nuclear reactors and hydrogen.In interviews, the people familiar with the Republican priorities say it will keep a focus on voters’ frustrations with gasoline prices, which surged in the past year amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the global economy’s rebound from the pandemic.“Whatever big initiatives they have, it’s going to be focused on addressing inflation and energy costs,” said George David Banks, an outside energy adviser to Republicans who was former President Donald Trump’s top international energy adviser. “That’s the smart political move if you are trying to build momentum, and more of a majority the next election and trying to get the White House back.”
A Republican Congress is coming for Biden's climate wins - Let’s get right to it: Come January, Republicans are likely to control both houses of Congress. The signs are lining up. After a summer when Democrats saw glimmers of hope—and when they seemed likely to retain the Senate—the light has faded. GOP control of the House of Representatives seems all but assured, and as of yesterday, prediction models suggest that the Senate will tip as well.If history is any indication, a Republican Congress could spell doom for climate policy. Since the early 1990s, when the GOP took a turn toward climate-change denialism, the party has been one of the world’s top enemies of climate policy. For years, it was one of the few major political parties in a developed country that rejected the reality of human-caused climate change. When Republicans won the House in 2010, two years into Barack Obama’s presidency, it set back American climate politics for years, putting a generation of open climate-science doubters in Congress. They tried to fireWhite House climate advisers, hectored environmental officials, shut downthe House’s global-warming committee, and doomed what had been a bipartisan effort to tax carbon pollution.Of course, plenty of congressional Republicans—more than 130, by one count—still deny the reality of human-caused climate change. But some members of the party claim that they’ve evolved since then. This year, House Republicans unveiled a new Conservative Climate Caucus that, in a fascinating circumlocution, sort of recognizes that fossil fuels are causing the planet to warm. (“The climate is changing, and decades of a global industrial era that has brought prosperity to the world has also contributed to that change,” the group has said.) The caucus now has 74 members, including Representative Frank Lucas of Oklahoma, who is likely to lead the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee next year. Lucas has called “the need to address global climate change” one of that committee’s “two most immediate challenges.” (Not that he’s a dyed-in-the-fleece environmentalist: He also has a 5 percent lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters.)So what will this new Republican Congress actually mean for climate policy? Three factors will help determine what could happen next.First, and most crucial, the party will want to own Joe Biden—to defeat him, humiliate him, smash his presidency into bits. As my colleague Barton Gellman has reported, the House might impeach Biden at some point in the next year, simply because its rhetorical groundwork will leave it no other choice.These same dynamics seem likely to all but force the party to target the president’s climate policy as well, because climate policy has been so central to Biden’s presidency. The president’s three big bills—the bipartisan infrastructure law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and especially the Inflation Reduction Act—cement emissions reduction as a core goal of American economic policy. On the face of it, you would expect Republicans to attack these policies and the officials implementing them. Many Republicans will want to turn the IRA, which got zero Republican votes, into Biden’s Obamacare: a legislative boondoggle that stands for the broader problems of his presidency. The IRA funds two public-financing agencies to help create more green industry in the U.S. Both will be natural targets of aggressive, and even destructive, Republican oversight in the coming Congress.
White House releases net-zero road map - The White House announced a new initiative this morning to help reach net-zero emissions and promised to direct research and billions in federal dollars toward 37 “game-changing” energy technologies. The Net-Zero Game Changers Initiative, as it’s known, is led by a working group of 17 agencies, chaired by President Joe Biden’s climate advisers. The administration also released a new road map identifying five initial key areas for energy research and development to reach net zero by 2050: power grids, aviation, fusion energy, efficient buildings and net-zero fuels and industrial products. Ramping up federal work in those five areas could yield climate jobs and environmental justice benefits and improve the country’s energy security, according to the administration. “The whole point of this exercise is to accelerate deployment even faster and farther,” said Arati Prabhakar, director of the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy, during a call with reporters yesterday. As part of the initiative, the administration will pour funds from the bipartisan infrastructure law, the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act into the five areas, the White House said. Federal agencies will also enhance their own coordination on the priority areas and draw up road maps for improving lab-scale technologies and bringing them into widespread use. Shalanda Young, director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, said during the call that the new road map would serve as “a comprehensive climate innovation strategy to help guide all of these investments.” The White House said it identified the 37 “game-changing” technology categories across federal agencies. They include advanced forms of nuclear, solar and geothermal power generation; advanced batteries, electric aircraft and high-speed rail; low-carbon forms of aluminum, chemicals and concrete; emissions reductions from livestock and agriculture; and direct air capture or other forms of CO2 removal. The initiative is predicated on the notion that the Paris goal of zeroing out greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is unattainable without new or vastly improved forms of energy. The International Energy Agency has concluded that nearly half of the emissions reductions necessary for net-zero will have to come from technologies in their demonstration or prototype phase — a finding cited by the White House working group. “Success will require nearly complete transformation of today’s energy system” — something that would require “unprecedented effort, scale and creativity,” wrote the working group in the road map.
With a possible surge of Haitian migrants ahead, the Biden admin is weighing holding them in a third country or at Guantánamo - The U.S. has long had a temporary holding facility for migrants at the U.S. Navy base in Cuba separate from the prison for terrorist suspects. The Biden administration is weighing options to respond to what could soon be a mass exodus of migrants from Haiti, including temporarily holding migrants in a third country or expanding capacity at an existing facility at the U.S. prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, according to two U.S. officials and an internal planning document reviewed by NBC News.The White House National Security Council is asking the Department of Homeland Security what number of Haitian migrants would require the U.S. to designate a third country, known as a “lily pad,” to hold and processHaitian migrants who are intercepted at sea and what number would overwhelm a lily pad country and require Haitians to be taken to Guantánamo, according to the document. For more than 30 years, Guantánamo Bay has had a Migrant Operations Center that houses migrants picked up by the Coast Guard in the Caribbean. It is not part of the prison for terrorist suspects. Plans are under consideration that would roughly double the capacity at the Migrant Operations Center to 400 beds, according to the document. In late September, violent gangs seeking to overturn Haiti’s government staged a land blockade of the country’s main fuel supply point, blocking fuel from leaving the depot and thwarting the hopes of those seeking to leave the country by boat. The Biden administration predicts that when the fuel is no longer blocked and migrants are able to buy gas to power boats, there could be a mass exodus of Haitians trying to make the dangerous journey to the U.S. by sea, the U.S. officials said. In recent days, the National Security Council has hosted a series of meetings about the issue, involving the departments of Homeland Security, Defense and State. The Biden administration received bipartisan criticism for its handling of a flood of Haitian migrants in September 2021, which led to more than 12,000 of them massing under an international bridge in Del Rio, Texas. Most of the migrants, however, had left Haiti many years before to seek work in South and Central America, and they tried to cross the U.S.-Mexico land border as their economic opportunities began to dry up in countries like Brazil. The Biden administration ramped up deportation flights to deal with the influx, but the flights have been halted since August. A spokesperson for the NSC said: “The United States remains committed to supporting the people of Haiti. We recently delivered Haitian government-purchased security equipment, including tactical and armored vehicles and supplies, that will assist the Haitian National Police in their fight against criminal actors inciting violence.” The spokesperson also said the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have staff members on the ground in Haiti responding to the country’s cholera outbreak. "The U.S. government always does contingency planning out of an abundance of caution, and for a wide range of potential scenarios. These contingencies for migration existed long before the Biden-Harris Administration," an NSC spokesperson said in a new statement after this article was published.
Supreme Court Leaves TSA Mask Mandate Ruling In Place --The Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal on Oct. 31, leaving in place a federal appeals court ruling that allowed the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) to require the wearing of masks on airplanes, trains, and buses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the TSA abandoned its mask mandate in April, the decision allows a Dec. 10, 2021, ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to remain on the books as a legal precedent that the government may rely upon in the future. In a brief filed with the high court on Sept. 27, the Biden administration urged the Supreme Court to reject the case.U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar noted in the document that the TSA had announced on April 13 that it would extend the mask directives through May 3, 2022.But days after the announcement, when a federal district judge in Florida vacated the Centers for Disease Control’s order requiring masking at transportation hubs and in airplanes, the TSA backed out of its mask mandate extension. The TSA mandate was allowed to expire on April 18.The D.C. Circuit Court’s ruling was correct because it recognized TSA was acting within its statutory authority and its actions were aimed at addressing the threats to transportation posed by COVID-19, the brief stated.
Supreme Court leans toward ending affirmative action in college admissions — Conservative Supreme Court justices indicated Monday that they are willing to end the explicit consideration of race in college admissions as they weighed cases challenging affirmative action policies at the University of North Carolina and Harvard University.Members of the court's conservative majority questioned the legal rationale for allowing the practice and probed to what extent colleges and universities could enact new "race neutral" admissions policies aimed at improving racial diversity. Some justices, however, indicated they would be willing to allow applicants to discuss their racial identities in some form as part of essays touching upon their experiences, such as examples of overcoming discrimination.Liberal justices, who are in the minority, defended the use of race in admissions, citing the importance of diversity on campus and the difficulty of achieving it without any consideration of race.Affirmative action, introduced to redress historic discrimination, has been a contentious issue for years, strongly supported by educational institutions and corporate America as being vital to fostering diversity and condemned by conservatives as being antithetical to the notion that racial equality means all races are treated the same.The Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, heard back-to-back oral arguments in the UNC and Harvard cases in actions brought by a group called Students for Fair Admissions, led by the conservative activist Ed Blum. A ruling is due by the end of June.In almost five hours of oral arguments, conservative justices expressed hostility to explicit consideration of race in an application."What do you learn from the mere checking of the box?" Justice Samuel Alito asked UNC lawyer Ryan Park.But some conservatives seemed more open to at least some recognition of an applicant's race as part of the process.If box-checking is not allowed, would it be acceptable if Harvard were "allowed to take into consideration what an applicant would say in an essay about having to confront discrimination growing up and how he or she did that?" Chief Justice John Roberts asked Cameron Norris, the lawyer challenging Harvard's policy.Norris said the university could lawfully consider such expressions of racial identity.Conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a former professor at Notre Dame Law School, was among those who seemed sympathetic to considering what she called a student's "experiential statement" that touched upon race, as opposed to the "box-checking" Alito referred to.The questions asked by Roberts and Barrett — and similar comments from another conservative justice, Brett Kavanaugh — indicated they were looking toward what kind of race-neutral policies to foster diversity could be considered if the court ends explicit consideration of race.Conservative justices appeared skeptical that colleges and universities would ever conclude that their diversity targets could be met without considering race, thereby creating a conflict with the Supreme Court's 2003 ruling that said affirmative action would no longer be needed after 25 years.Barrett wondered whether the 2003 ruling was "grossly optimistic" in suggesting that race might no longer need to be considered after the quarter-century aspirational deadline."What if there's no end?" she asked.Conservative Justice Clarence Thomas questioned whether colleges and universities have a compelling interest in diversity, while fellow conservative Neil Gorsuch expressed concern that the goal of achieving diversity was akin to having racial quotas, which the court has prohibited.
High court Harvard admissions case may thwart Biden EJ push - The Biden administration may have a tougher time rectifying decades of environmental injustices if the Supreme Court chooses to stop universities from considering race in admissions decisions. During their Monday session, the justices are scheduled to hear marathon arguments from attorneys representing the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, and Harvard College — as well as students the institutions have rejected — over whether schools violate Title VI of the Civil Rights Act by “overemphasizing race” when choosing among applicants. Title VI — which guarantees U.S. citizens will not be discriminated against based on race, color or national origin under any initiative receiving federal funds — has also been a centerpiece of President Joe Biden’s efforts to address the disproportionate exposure of Black communities and communities of color to pollution and the ravages of climate change. “This case has the potential to chill the broader efforts of the Biden administration with respect to environmental justice — particularly with respect to civil rights,” said Julius Redd, co-founder and co-chair of the environmental justice practice at Beveridge & Diamond PC. “The administration could potentially hold back some of the efforts they have undertaken.” Observers expect the Supreme Court — now dominated by six conservative justices — to be sympathetic to student challengers’ claims that the use of race as a factor in admissions decisions has kept Asian and white students from attending elite universities. A broad ruling from the court could have ripple effects far beyond academia. The Supreme Court’s interest in the question at the heart of the cases — Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina and Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard College — already appears to have upended the Biden administration’s work on some of its key environmental justice efforts. When the White House Council on Environmental Quality unveiled a new screening tool in June to identify disadvantaged communities for clean energy and infrastructure investments, race was missing as an indicator. A CEQ spokesperson appeared to suggest at the time that the omission of race was intended to help the screening tool “endure” legal challenges (Climatewire, June 1). Biden had also promised targeted loan relief for farmers of color but has since broadened the eligibility requirements after facing blowback in federal court (Greenwire), Oct. 18). “It’s a thorny issue because using race can pit groups against each other,” said Tanya Nesbitt, a partner in the environmental practice group at the firm Thompson Hine LLP. “But the flip side of that is you have communities or issues that are perhaps not covered or identified as well in the data.” She added: “Regardless of how the Supreme Court rules, the administration is keen to set up a framework that will survive judicial scrutiny.” Court rulings requiring “so-called race neutrality” ignore the fact that “our current system is not race-neutral, and agencies working on environmental justice, they’re faced with the need to correct environmental injustice in a system that perpetuates that injustice,” said Emily Hammond, a professor and vice provost for faculty affairs at George Washington University Law School. Hammond continued: “An adverse ruling in this admissions case could limit the kinds of tools that agencies could use to address the core of environmental justice — which is race.”
SCOTUS race-in-admissions case could dim Biden EJ ambitions - The Supreme Court on Monday seemed sympathetic to arguments for “race-neutral” policies in college admissions decisions — and their ruling could be a stumbling block for President Joe Biden’s goal to remedy Black communities’ disproportionate exposure to pollution. During oral arguments, some of the most moderate members of the six-justice conservative wing pondered the extent to which race-neutral considerations — such as socioeconomic factors and cultural struggles — could be used to achieve schools’ diversity goals. “Do you think those are appropriate, even if the attempt in adopting them is to reach minority students?” Chief Justice John Roberts asked Patrick Strawbridge, a partner at the firm Consovoy McCarthy PLLC representing the anti-affirmative action group Students for Fair Admissions. Advertisement Legal observers note that a ruling endorsing race-neutral approaches could dilute efforts to admit students from underrepresented groups. Depending how broadly the opinion is written, it could also undermine one of Biden’s marquee campaign promises to address disproportionate pollution and climate impacts in Black neighborhoods (Greenwire, Oct. 28).Biden’s White House Council on Environmental Quality drew backlash after it unveiled a new screening tool to identify disadvantaged communities for extra federal investment and left out race as a factor.The tool instead focused on factors like pollution-linked health issues and low income (Climatewire,, June 1). Conservative justices also pressed an attorney for the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, for a deadline by which “race-conscious” admissions decision would no longer be necessary to ensure diversity on college campuses. The time element is a key argument for Students for Fair Admissions, which claims that former Justice Sandra Day O’Connor appeared to put a 25-year “self-destruct mechanism” in her 2003 opinion in Grutter v. Bollinger that said colleges could consider race as one of many factors in admissions decisions. “We expect that 25 years from now, the use of racial preferences will no longer be necessary to further the interest approved today,” O’Connor wrote at the time. Justice Brett Kavanaugh asked Strawbridge how the court should “think about that sentence” in Grutter. Strawbridge replied that his group — which argues that affirmative action policies harm Asian American and white students — doesn’t understand 25 years to be a “hard and fast” requirement. Kavanaugh later pressed North Carolina Solicitor General Ryan Park, representing UNC, on O’Connor’s decision to mention a 25-year horizon, “instead of leaving it vague.” Park said that UNC is constantly reassessing its race-conscious admissions policies and monitoring whether the school is ready for a more neutral approach. “It’s a dial,” he said in response to questioning from Justice Amy Coney Barrett, “not a switch.” David Hinojosa of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued alongside Park. Liberal justices grilled Strawbridge about the potential harm of stifling Black and Native American students from focusing on their racial identity in their applications, but allowing, for instance, native North Carolinians to tout their families’ histories in the Tar Heel State. “What I’m worried about is that seems to me to have more of an equal protection issue than the problem it is actually solving,” Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said to Strawbridge.
Conservative justices seem to like precedent this time around - The Supreme Court grappled with affirmative action Monday, but the court’s summer ruling overturning the half-century old Roe v. Wade precedent clearly weighed on the justices as they debated whether to overturn lower court rulings on race-based admissions.Throughout the nearly five-hour-long arguments, the court’s two newest conservative justices — who could be pivotal to the outcome of the pending cases — appeared reluctant to be seen wantonly reversing another line of court precedents that has blessed some use of race in the college admissions process for more than four decades.The anti-affirmative action activists pressing the challenges to admission policies at Harvard and the University of North Carolina have asked the court to overrule a 2003 decision, Grutter v. Bollinger, that upheld the use of race in the admissions process for the University of Michigan’s law school.An attorney for affirmative action opponents, Patrick Strawbridge, kicked off his arguments Monday with a muscular call for the high court to toss outGrutter. Calling the ruling “grievously wrong,” Strawbridge said that use of race in admissions should never be permitted.“This Court should overrule it,” Strawbridge declared.However, Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett didn’t seem terribly interested in that approach. They went out of their way to suggest Monday that whatever the high court does on affirmative action be consistent with prior rulings, not cast them aside.Their outlook was notable since Barrett and Kavanaugh joined the five-justice majority that upended 49 years of law that provided a legal guarantee of access to abortion across the U.S.Since the release in June of the court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, critics have accused the justices who signed onto that ruling of ignoring the broad tradition of respect for precedent embodied in the principle of stare decisis.Kavanaugh and Barrett both joined Justice Samuel Alito’s majority opinion in Dobbs concluding that Roe v. Wade “was egregiously wrong from the start” so it didn’t deserve to be kept on the books.Affirmative action opponents are seeking a similarly definitive repudiation of the precedents on that issue, but Kavanaugh and Barrett didn’t seem to think that was called for in the cases over admissions at Harvard and the University of North Carolina.“The recent Dobbs decision was in the air today, both when the counsels supporting affirmative action mentioned precedent and when the conservative justices noted that ending race-based admissions was in keeping with Grutter v. Bollinger’s expectation that 25 years from now — from 2003 — the use of racial preferences will no longer be necessary,” said Curt Levey of the conservative legal group Committee for Justice.Indeed, Barrett and Kavanaugh focused Monday on applying precedent, not overturning it, arguing that Justice Sandra Day O’Connor’s unusual call two decades ago in Grutter for educational affirmative action to phase out in 25 years should be respected.“We’re not to that 25-year point yet, right?” Barrett said. “So, if it has its own self-destruct mechanism where it says like, ‘Hey, Grutter says we’ve got to call it quits because they’re just not working,’ are we obligated to give more time?”
Biden says 16 million near student-debt relief as GOP fights aid --Some 16 million applications for student debt relief will be approved by this week, provided the White House plan survives court challenges, President Biden said Thursday. Almost 26 million people have applied for up to $20,000 in debt forgiveness since the White House launched the student loan forgiveness application on Oct. 17, Biden said in a series of tweets. Of those applications, a total of 16 million will have been pre-approved by the end of this week. "That's 16 million Americans, so far, who should be seeing student debt relief in the coming days," Biden said. "But that relief is on hold — because Republican elected officials are doing everything they can to deny it, even to their own constituents.Biden plans to speak on debt relief on Thursday at Central New Mexico Community College in Albuquerque. Biden is highlighting the issue, popular with the younger voters Democrats need to motivate, just days ahead of key midterm elections that will determine control of both houses of Congress and the fate of Biden's legislative agenda.The plan, which was announced in August, is currently being challenged by a number of lawsuits. A federal judge last month temporarily blocked the Department of Education from paying out debt forgiveness until the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in St. Louis rules on a lawsuit brought by six Republican-led states. Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina sued on the basis that the debt relief would cause loan servicers that operate in the state to lose revenue. A judge in the United States District Court in Missouri had previously dismissed the case.Lawyers who have filed a different lawsuit on Tuesday asked the Supreme Court to halt the plan; they are advocating on behalf of two plaintiffs in Indiana who say they would be irreparably harmed if they have to pay state taxes on forgiven loans. The Department of Education has already opted out the plaintiffs, and said that anyone who doesn't want student debt forgiveness can opt out or choose not to apply.
Opinion | States’ Rights Is About to Come Roaring Back - The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs was groundbreaking not just because it revamped the Fourteenth Amendment’s protection of abortion rights. It also reconfigured the relationship between the Constitution and the states, giving the latter primary authority over pregnancies. In the court’s new term, two less-noticed cases may well continue the march toward enhancing state power at the expense of the federal government, with massive implications for both the U.S. presidency and the U.S. Congress. In a worst-case scenario, decisions in favor of the states would open the door to a slew of legal challenges to any federal policy that a state might object to, effectively neutering the president’s constitutional authority to enforce laws passed by the legislative branch.The first case, United States v. Texas & Louisiana, concerns a set of administrative guidelines that the Biden administration’s Department of Homeland Security issued in September of 2021 for deciding which immigrants should be arrested and deported on grounds of “national security, public safety and border security.” There are 11 million undocumented noncitizens in the country and limited government resources to apprehend and remove every one of them. Accordingly, the guidelines gave Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents broad discretion to decide whether to arrest someone, using criteria that include the seriousness of an individual’s past offense, the harm caused, whether a firearm was involved, the individual’s youth or advanced age and the impact of deportation on their family.In 2021, Texas and Louisiana filed suit to block the guidelines, arguing that they allow immigrants with criminal records to remain free while their cases move forward, imposing burdens on the states’ public systems and services. A federal district judge in Texas entered an injunction banning use of the guidelines nationwide, which an appeals court upheld. In June, the Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, refused to lift the stay, even temporarily.The case is a breathtaking swipe at the authority of presidents to execute federal immigration law. The president, through his appointed Secretary of Homeland Security, effectively picks and chooses how to best to enforce theImmigration and Nationality Act (INA). While Trump set out to arrest and speed deportations of any noncitizen in the country without authorization, President Joe Biden and his DHS secretary Alejandro Mayorkas chose a less draconian approach that is more closely aligned with that of Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama. The second case, Brackeen v. Haaland, was also brought by Texas jointly with a married couple against the Biden administration, but this time, the potential loser in the state-versus-federal government power struggle is Congress. Its implications for the respective powers of government are equally staggering: Texas aims to strike it down as unconstitutional a 43-year-old federal statute known as the Indian Child Welfare Act (ICWA). In the mid-20th century alone, nearly one-third of Native children were forcibly removed from their families and placed in foster care, with adoptive families or in boarding schools by the federal government. Congress passed the ICWA in a remedial effort to keep Indian children in Native families to the extent possible, thereby promoting tribal integrity and stability. The dispute arose when the Brackeen family, a white Evangelical couple who fostered and successfully adopted a Navajo child under the ICWA, sought to adopt another child — a younger sister — but were allegedly hindered by the ICWA. Together with Texas, the Brackeens sued the federal government, arguing that the statute is an unconstitutional impediment to their family’s plans because it makes racial distinctions “by categorizing children based on genetics and ancestry and potential adoptive parents based on their race,” in violation of the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause. The federal government responds that ICWA does not violate equal protection because the Supreme Court has long-determined that classifications based on tribal affiliation are political distinctions, not racialones. “As long as the special treatment can be tied rationally to the fulfillment of Congress’ unique obligation toward the Indians,” the Court has insisted, those distinctions “will not be disturbed.” The federal defendants argue again that Texas has no standing to sue because it suffered no actual harm, merely claiming an interest as a protector of its citizens — a bid that would enable states to second-guess in court virtually anything the federal government does that affects individuals living in a state.
Supreme Court says Sen. Lindsey Graham must testify in election probe -- The Supreme Court on Tuesday denied a request by Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., to block a subpoena demanding his testimony before a Georgia grand jury investigating possible criminal interference in that state's 2020 presidential election. The court in its ruling said a federal judge's earlier order upholding the subpoena adequately protected Graham from being questioned about what he has claimed was legislative activity during his testimony, as provided for by the Constitution's Speech or Debate Clause. There were no noted dissents by any of the Supreme Court's justices to the order, which lifts a temporary hold placed on the subpoena last week by Justice Clarence Thomas. The Fulton County special grand jury is probing the actions of former President Donald Trump and his allies, including Graham, on the heels of Georgia's 2020 election, which was won by President Joe Biden. Graham had contacted Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, the state's top election official, and his staff in November 2020 as Trump was trying to get the results there and in other swing states that Biden won overturned. The subpoena to Graham calls for him to testify before the grand jury in Atlanta on Nov. 17. The Fulton County District Attorney's Office, which has been presenting evidence to the grand jury, last week warned the Supreme Court that if Graham's request to delay the subpoena was granted, "the Grand Jury's work will be delayed indefinitely, ensuring that information which could either clear the innocent of suspicion or increase scrutiny on the guilty will continue to lie beyond the Grand Jury's grasp." In its order Tuesday, the Supreme Court noted, "The lower courts also made clear that Senator Graham may return to the District Court should disputes arise regarding the application of the Speech or Debate Clause immunity to specific questions. " "Accordingly, a stay or injunction is not necessary to safeguard the Senator's Speech or Debate Clause immunity."
Trump lawyers saw Clarence Thomas as key to stop Biden electoral count, emails show - Lawyers for President Donald Trump saw Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas as key to overturning the results of the 2020 election, according to a set of emails provided to congressional investigators. Eight emails, ordered released by U.S. District Judge David O. Carter of California, include correspondence between Trump lawyers Kenneth Chesebro, John Eastman and others discussing various legal strategies to convince Republican members of Congress to object to the official certification of electoral votes in a joint session of Congress on Jan. 6, 2021. In an email from Chesebro to Eastman and several others sent on Dec. 31, 2020, Chesebro argued that Thomas would “end up being key” to asking the high court to overturn then-President-elect Joe Biden’s win in contested states, and that they should “frame things so that Thomas could be the one to issue some sort of stay or other circuit justice opinion saying Georgia is in legitimate doubt.” Advertisement “Realistically, our only chance to get a favorable judicial opinion by Jan. 6, which might hold up the Georgia count in Congress, is from Thomas — do you agree, Prof. Eastman?” Thomas, who did not respond to a request for comment, is the justice who oversees emergency petitions from the circuit court that includes Georgia. Eastman did not immediately respond to request for comment.
Oath Keepers trial witness: Stewart Rhodes urged Trump to stay in power by force - Four days after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes tried to tell President Donald Trump it was not too late to use paramilitary groups to stay in power by force, according to testimony Wednesday in federal court. If he did not, protesters “should have brought rifles” to Washington, and “we could have fixed it right then and there,” Rhodes said during a Jan. 10 recorded meeting, boasting that he would have killed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Rhodes made the violent comments at a meeting in Texas with Jason Alpers, who described himself on the witness stand as a military veteran and co-founder of Allied Security Operations Group (ASOG). That organization played a key role in spreading false claims about the 2020 election through misleading and inaccurate reports about voting machine software. On the stand, Alpers said he had an “indirect” line to Trump’s “inner circle,” without elaborating. That apparent relationship is why Rhodes wanted to meet, Alpers testified. He said he recorded the meeting to accurately “provide information to President Trump.” What he got, he said, disturbed him enough to eventually go to the FBI. Alpers took the stand in the sixth week of trial for Rhodes and four others accused of taking part in a seditious conspiracy against the U.S. government. He was one of the last witnesses put on by prosecutors seeking to prove the Oath Keepers’ actions on Jan. 6 were just one part of an attempt to prevent by any means necessary the lawful transition of presidential power. Oath Keepers cooperator says he saw Jan. 6 as ‘Bastille-type’ moment Alpers’s testimony was followed by an FBI agent who displayed firearms, knives and tactical gear Rhodes purchased after Jan. 6 — over $17,000 worth, according to the testimony — and read messages in which the former Army paratrooper urged his followers to prepare for civil war.
There was no plan’: Oath Keepers begin mounting defense to seditious conspiracy charges - Members of the far-right Oath Keepers, charged with a complex conspiracy to prevent Joe Biden from taking office, had a simple rebuttal on Thursday to the extensive evidence offered by prosecutors: There was no plan.As they began their pushback to weeks of evidence presented by prosecutors — showing extensive coordination by the group’s founder, Stewart Rhodes, and top allies ahead of the Jan. 6 breach of the Capitol — defense attorneys said there was simply no concrete evidence of a conspiracy to topple the incoming government.Rather, dozens of members of the group descended on Washington ahead of Jan. 6, 2021, to provide security to VIP speakers at then-President Donald Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally. And while nearly two dozen of them joined the mob inside the Capitol, they contend there was no centralized effort to disrupt Congress that day.“There was no plan,” said Stanley Woodward, the defense lawyer for Kelly Meggs, leader of the Florida Oath Keepers, who is charged alongside Rhodes and three other defendants.“I won’t ask you to agree with Mr. Meggs’ political beliefs, his preference for the president of the United States,” Woodward continued. “I will ask you to read, to hear the evidence in this case … and to decide whether the evidence was a plan, a scheme, something nefarious or whether, as others have observed, they represent hyperbole, political rhetoric.”The case against the Oath Keepers is one of the most significant to emerge from the investigation of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, which has led to about 900 arrests and a sweeping nationwide investigation that the Justice Department has called the largest in American history. Although hundreds of those charged face felony charges for attempting to disrupt congressional proceedings, only the leaders of the Oath Keepers and the far-right Proud Boys face seditious conspiracy charges. Prosecutors say both groups orchestrated plots to stop the transfer of power by force.Prosecutors spent all of October laying out a case that Rhodes and Meggs — along with Kenneth Harrelson of Florida, Jessica Watkins of Ohio and Thomas Caldwell of Virginia — amassed an arsenal of firearms in Arlington, Va., and prepared to violently prevent Biden from taking office.The five co-defendants joined group chats and calls — some of which were recorded and provided to investigators — discussing their desire to keep Trump in power, their hope that Trump would designate the Oath Keepers as a federalized militia to help retain power, and their expectation of a bloody civil war if he didn’t. Prosecutors also centered their case on thousands of text messages, Signal chats and social media messages that showed the defendants expressing increasingly menacing views about their efforts to keep Trump in power, by force if necessary.
Supreme Court blocks Congress getting Trump tax returns - Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts on Tuesday temporarily blocked the House Ways and Means Committee from obtaining years of federal income tax returns of former President Donald Trump and related business entities from the IRS. Roberts' order came a day after Trump's lawyers filed an emergency application with the Supreme Court requesting the delay, and two days before the IRS was set to give the committee the Republican's tax returns. The chief justice gave the Ways and Means Committee until Nov. 10 to respond to Trump's application for the delay. Trump wants the Supreme Court to block the committee from getting his tax returns and those of the related entities for the years 2015 through 2020 until he formally asks the high court to allow him to appeal lower court rulings that cleared the way for the records to be handed over. The Democratic-controlled Ways and Means Committee has said it wants the returns as part of a probe of how the IRS audits presidential taxes.
Trump's company to get a court monitor, judge rules - — A judge Thursday granted the New York attorney general’s request that former President Donald Trump’s business empire be overseen by an independent monitor.New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron issued an order after a daylong hearing, requiring that the Trump Organization’s dealings with banks and sale of major assets be subject to supervision by a third-party expert to be named by the court.One provision in the order requires 14-days notice to the court before Trump can dispose of any “non-cash asset” listed in a financial statement his firm prepared last year.The judge’s order came over strenuous objections from Trump’s lawyers in Manhattan earlier Thursday, where Trump’s team pleaded with Engoron to reject Attorney General Tish James’ bid to impose potentially far-reaching supervision of Trump’s business empire as litigation proceeds over her claims that the firms engaged in vast bank and insurance fraud in real estate transactions.Engoron said in his ruling the evidence of fraudulent valuations by Trump and his businesses was “more than sufficient” to indicate that James is likely to prevail in the lawsuit she filed in September, which is seeking strict limits on the Trump businesses’ activities in New York and a ban on the former president and his three eldest children from serving as an officer of any New York corporation.The legal setback for Trump came after the two sides squared off in court for the first time since James drew national attention for her civil lawsuit taking on the former president and his businesses. She was quick Thursday to hail the judge’s decision as a step toward justice for Trump.“Time and time again, the courts have ruled that Donald Trump cannot evade the law for personal gain,” James said in a statement. “Today’s decision will ensure that Donald Trump and his companies cannot continue the extensive fraud that we uncovered and will require the appointment of an independent monitor to oversee compliance at the Trump Organization. No number of lawsuits, delay tactics, or threats will stop our pursuit of justice.”A Trump Organization spokesperson denounced the decision and suggested that the judge was aiding James politically. She is seeking a second term Tuesday.
Sen. Bob Menendez Is Reportedly Under Investigation For Corruption... Again - by Jonathan Turley, - Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., is under federal criminal investigation … again. The voters of New Jersey reelected Menendez despite his accepting lavish gifts from a businessman who was later convicted of fraud. Menendez was also charged but the case was dismissed after a jury hung on the verdict. As I noted at the time of the trial, Menendez was a “juror” in a trial that I handled in the Senate and he maintained a position completely at odds with his own later defense.In the prior case against the Senator, prosecutors accused Menendez of accepting close to $1 million in contributions and lavish gifts in exchange for political favors.The trial ended with a hung jury and the charges were dismissed in 2018.That history did not prevent the Democrats making Menendez the chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee. ABC and other outlets have confirmed the new investigation. Reports indicated that the investigation raised similar allegations to the 2018 case.In 2018, I noted that the most poignant and powerful case against Menendez was made in his own words.It was 2010, and Menendez was voting against my client federal Judge Thomas Porteous in Porteous’s impeachment trial.The charges were laid out plainly before U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.):“… engag[ing] in a corrupt relationship [and] as part of this corrupt relationship … solicit[ation] and accept[ance] of numerous things of value, including meals, trips, home repairs, and car repairs, for his personal use and benefit while at the same time taking official actions that benefitted [his friend].”Menendez was resolute. He stood up in front of his colleagues and declared that receiving gifts ranging from free meals to wedding gifts was, plain and simple, corruption.Notably, while many of his colleagues voted “not guilty” on Dec. 8, 2010, to Count Two (which focused on the gifts and travel benefits) against Judge Porteous, Menendez did not. He voted “guilty” on that and all of the other counts.
The Booze-Soaked Tribal War Inside the Democratic Party - — David Shor and Sean McElwee were late, having come half-cocked from the Dissent Magazine issue release party earlier in the afternoon — “We’re socialists,” McElwee said with a shrug by way of explanation — and took their seats outside a dive bar on Manhattan’s Lower East Side, asking the bartender to bring two of whatever his most popular cocktail was. They downed those, clear concoctions that looked like headaches in a glass, then asked him to come back with the second most popular cocktail. It was a hot afternoon in the summer of 2021, and they were in a good mood. In Louisiana, a few weeks prior, a congressional candidate backed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her allies had gone down to defeat. In Virginia, Clintonite fundraiser Terry McAuliffe had just beaten a primary opponent backed by the Sunrise Movement and the Working Families Party. The left flank of the Democratic Party, once seen as laying siege to the party establishment, was in retreat. In Ohio, the duo’s polling showed that progressive favorite Nina Turner looked set to lose, too. The good feeling didn’t last, of course — McAuliffe ended up losing the governorship to a Republican — but even in the moment their glee seemed surprising. Shor, wearing dark, John Lennonesque sunglasses, keeps a red rose at the end of his Twitter bio, proof of a commitment to democratic socialism. He is the kind of person who, midway into his first cocktail, says, “I don’t want to sound insufferable, but I wake up every morning thinking about how I can reduce poverty, how I can reduce suffering.” McElwee, who looks and dresses like an 8-year-old boy inflated to adult size, is the activist who almost singlehandedly made abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement a litmus test for ambitious Democratic politicians by relentlessly tweeting about it and demanding answers from elected officials. The happy hours he began hosting at a basement bar in the East Village in the early days of the Trump era had become the go-to spot for a rising generation of lefty activists, journalists and candidates. Ocasio-Cortez herself used to stop by. Back then, “Sean and Shor” were still mostly known only to the extremely online set and lefty political insiders. But in the years since, as a counterrevolution swept the Democratic Party, they have both become the avatars of a more pragmatic approach — they call it “popularism” — and also, for political professionals at least, kind of famous: There have been multiple New York Times profiles, podcast interviews and various think pieces devoted to their ideas, all of which led to vitriol directed at them from their former fellow travelers who fear that their critique — that the Democratic Party is too reliant on ultra-progressive voters from elite precincts — is nothing less than a betrayal of the basic principles of the party. Their message has found an audience among establishment Dems. McElwee had advised the Joe Biden campaign during the 2020 campaign (something many on the left never forgave him for) and both are advising senior White House and Democratic congressional officials on polling and messaging. In the early days of the Biden era, when it still seemed like a progressive takeover of the party was around the corner, their insights had the frisson of dangerous knowledge, samizdat for leftists fearful that their own side had gone too far. “Everybody wants politics to be this really inspiring thing,” Shor said as the sun set on Suffolk Street. “But politics in the real world is an endless series of terrible, emotionally unsatisfying tradeoffs.”
Herschel Walker cites his 'redemption' story in race against Raphael Warnock - After they had said prayers and sung the final “Hallelujah!” on a recent Monday evening, the Relentless Church Bible study group turned to the Georgia Senate race. Republican nominee Herschel Walker has faced a number of scandals, including an allegation by his ex-wife that he put a gun to her head in 2005 and threatened to kill her, and more recent claims by two former girlfriends that he pressured them to have abortions. And yet, Walker still has such strong support that his race against Democratic Sen. Raphael G. Warnock is considered a toss-up. The contest is one of a handful that could determine which party controls the Senate after Tuesday’s midterm elections. Walker has said he is a new man, “redeemed by the grace of God.” It’s a message that resonates with Gail Barraza and other members of her church, who say they are not focused on Walker’s past, but on his current pledge that he will be a Republican senator who would support a national abortion ban. Advertisement “We all have done wrong,” Barraza, 64, said when asked about some of Walker’s false statements, including that he was his high school’s valedictorian. “Who are we to judge?” “If you waited for the perfect candidate, you would never vote again,” agreed Leah Houz, 29, who hosted the Bible study in her home in this small, mostly White suburb of Savannah, the majority-Black city where Warnock grew up. Many Walker supporters interviewed here over three days last month are willing to forget — or at least not think too much — about the allegations against him because he supports a Republican agenda that aligns with their beliefs. Walker, a Georgia football legend who was urged by former president Donald Trump to run for Senate, has made faith a central part of his pitch to evangelical voters, a group whose support would be key to his candidacy. He has focused on the notion of redemption, especially when confronted about his past behavior, including accusations of domestic violence and failing to publicly acknowledge and support his out-of-wedlock children. The members of the Relentless Church Bible study group said there have been so many news reports about Walker’s past that they didn’t know what to believe, and so decided not to weigh the candidate’s moral character as they once would have. They said they have tuned out what they called the “chatter” and “noise.” And yes, many said they know Walker is “a flawed candidate,” but they are willing to forgive his past to focus on their future. What mattered most was that he was a Republican who could deliver a ban on abortions and an end to Democratic control in the Senate
‘People are fearful’: Threats to midterm election workers spur law enforcement response across U.S. - Local and federal law enforcement officials across the country said in interviews Thursday they are ramping up efforts to protect election officials ahead of Nov. 8 — in some cases preparing for potential acts of violence in the coming days.In areas of the U.S. where pro-Trump supporters spurred lies about the outcome of the 2020 election — including where local officials have recently reported incidents of voter intimidation — law enforcement is adding additional security to poll locations and ballot boxes. Local police departments, in coordination with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, are also focusing on tracking tips related to threats against election workers, officials said.The added security and protective measures in states like Arizona, Georgia and Michigan underscore the increasing anxiety of officials across the country about political violence after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband was violently attacked by an individual who promoted conspiracy theories linked to QAnon.“Election workers have expressed on a regular basis their concerns. They’ve seen what the potential for violence is across our nation. And now they’ve seen just a few folks act in a manner that is intimidating or bullying on the ground here in Arizona,” said Paul Penzone, sheriff of Maricopa County in Arizona where armed people have stationed themselves at ballot boxes in recent weeks. “People are fearful because they’re not sure what to expect.”The FBI would not respond to questions about how many credible threats against election workers it is currently tracking. But senior law enforcement officials have said they’ve received thousands of tips about threats — both physical and cyber — to election workers between the summer of 2021 and June of 2022.It’s a long-simmering issue. Local law enforcement officials said they have received multiple reports a day for at least the last two months about election workers experiencing online harassment and physical threats, including threats to their families.A federal law enforcement official said the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security are dedicating additional resources to investigating threats to election workers and politicians and communicating with local law enforcement about new leads.“Election officials are being followed home … having death threats shouted at them while they’re leaving the office. You have election officials who have had protesters with guns showing up outside of their homes,” said Lawrence Norden, senior director of the Brennan Center’s Elections & Government Program. “I make no light of the threats and attacks that we’ve seen on congressional members … but we’re talking about people on a very different level who … have had very few resources.”Penzone said he and his team have additional staff to protect polling sites and drop boxes, including fielding officers in plain clothes to patrol on Election Day. He described Arizona as the “wild, wild West” — an environment that could potentially prompt acts of political violence.
‘De facto frontrunner’: DeSantis’ $200 million haul positions him for 2024 run - After personally receiving a $10 million check from real estate mogul Robert Bigelow in Las Vegas in July, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was so astounded by the huge donation that he held onto the check during his long return flight to Florida. Once he landed, DeSantis told a member of his finance team to drive the check to the Tampa offices of Robert and Nancy Watkins, who serve as chair and treasurer for his political committee, Friends of Ron DeSantis, according to three people familiar with the story. In giving DeSantis $10 million, Bigelow, who owns Budget Suites of America, wrote the largest single campaign check in Florida political history — but it’s just a fraction of the overall record-shattering haul DeSantis has raised during the 2022 cycle. Between his direct campaign and the aligned political committee, donors big and small have given DeSantis more than $200 million for his reelection bid, a staggering sum that is likely the most raised by any gubernatorial candidate in American history. DeSantis has used the avalanche of cash to bury Democratic opponent Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor whose $31 million raised would put him in good shape in most competitive governor’s races across the country. But against DeSantis, Crist’s $31 million left him unable to adequately compete. DeSantis has more than $90 million remaining in the bank after spending about $100 million total this election cycle on his reelection bid via his aligned committee and campaign. That huge sum is fueling speculation that the Florida governor, who cannot run for a third term, will use it to seed the early stages of a potential 2024 bid for the White House. “If you look at where the money is coming from, it’s indicative of Gov. DeSantis being seen by national donors as the de facto frontrunner for president,” said Slater Bayliss, a longtime Florida Republican lobbyist who supports DeSantis. DeSantis’ campaign, which also speaks for the aligned committee, did not return a request seeking comment. Beyond the $10 million check from Bigelow, who did not return a request seeking comment, DeSantis received two $5 million checks from investor Ken Griffin, who recently moved his hedge fund Citadel LLC from Chicago to Miami. The Republican Governors Association also gave DeSantis $20 million and the Florida governor got $3 million from state taxpayers as part of Florida’s public campaign financing program. Those four alone gave his campaign more cash than Crist was able to raise during the entire election cycle. Crist is also considered one of Florida’s best political fundraisers.
Opinion | Florida Is a Blaring Warning Sign for Democrats – POLITICO - Rich Lowry - For some reason, the White House is telling itself that the president’s trip to the Sunshine State this week sets up his midterm message perfectly, or as a CNN report put it, serves “as the ideal backdrop for his warnings against ‘mega-MAGA’ Republicans.”“For months,” according to CNN, “Biden and his team have been hoping to use Florida’s constellation of Trump-aligned Republicans — including the former president himself — to crystallize Biden’s closing pitch that the election is a choice and not a referendum and galvanize Democratic voters.”A senior Biden adviser explained of Tuesday’s venture into Florida, “You can’t shake a stick without hitting a Republican that represents the MAGA extremes that the president is talking about. So, it allows the president to really drive home what’s at stake and what the choice is.”This raises some questions: If a large, politically prized state that is one of the most important in the Union has alleged extremists everywhere, are they really that extreme? And if Democrats do poorly in Florida next week, as seems likely, what does it say about the party?Every party that is heading for a midterm drubbing has a moment of desperation-driven wishful thinking near the end of a campaign, and clearly, this is one of those moments. Anyone who thinks that it’s a good idea to campaign against a future-oriented, ethnically diverse state where the Democratic Party is cratering has been spending too much time reading White House press releases, or Ron Klain’s Twitter account.
Why top progressives are keeping their campaign-trail distance from some vulnerable Dems -— Elizabeth Warren charged on stage at a get-out-the-vote rally here with an energetic reminder that Democratic Senate nominee Mandela Barnes is “committed to making this economy work for everyone.”The only thing missing as Warren called out Barnes and other Wisconsin Democrats as the best choices to “save our democracy”? Barnes himself.His campaign cited a scheduling conflict with another rally, and he attended a closed-press fundraiser with Warren later that day. Yet beyond that moment, progressive leaders are deploying their public appearances carefully in the lead-up to the midterms.Warren (D-Mass.) is campaigning alongside fellow female senators in two less conservative states than Wisconsin, both with less competitive races: Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). But she’s also appearing for, not with, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.). And Sen.Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) aren’t joining endangered incumbents even as they crisscross the country and host packed rallies to boost voter turnout.That strategy is a tacit acknowledgment that, despite top progressives’ skills at fundraising and turning out the Democratic base, the party’s battleground-district candidates are still worried about Republican attacks that try to associate them with liberal policies toxified as “socialist.”
Cockamamie Story - by James Howard Kunstler- It’s been several days since San Francisco police interrupted a hammer fight between Paul Pelosi — husband of House Speaker Nancy — and his “friend… David,” in the Pelosis’ Pacific Heights home, and apparently the cops have not asked David DePape why he was there in the first place. Is it possible that a whole chain of authorities from the SFPD clear up into the top of the US government and its Democratic Party sidekicks don’t want you to know what actually happened? So far, not much in this cockamamie story adds up. Quite a bit is known now about the attacker, David DePape. He was a colorful character on the scene in radical Berkeley across the bay, a “nudist activist” and BLM supporter. He’d lived there and had a child with one Oxane “Gypsy” Taub, a fellow nude activist and whack-job, who has spent time in prison for child abduction. That partnership ended seven years ago and DePape has been homeless on and off since then. Acquaintances and Berkeley neighbors describe him as not mentally healthy, saying he exhibits psychotic delusions and is sometimes incoherent.So far, police have not disclosed how DePape journeyed from Berkeley to Pacific Heights at 2:00 o’clock in the morning, about fourteen miles. Did he walk from Berkeley across the Bay Bridge and then halfway across town? Mr. DePape is apparently also known to the police as a gay hustler, that is, a person who sells sex for money. If David DePape didn’t walk fourteen miles from Berkeley to Pacific Heights, or take a cab (expensive), how did he get there? Here’s a theory: he rode the BART subway from Berkeley to the Church Street and Mission station in the city, a five-minute walk to the Castro, San Francisco’s fabled gay district. Sometime before 2:00 a.m. closing time, he met up in a bar there with Paul Pelosi, who drove DePape to the Pelosi house in a car not equipped with an interlock device. That is to say, David DePape was let into the house by Mr. Pelosi.The police and the news media have theorized that DePape broke into the place by smashing a glass door in back. Uh-huh…. Ask yourself: would there not be an alarm system at least on all the ground floor windows and doors in the house? Would there not be security cameras on the back side of the house — the side that burglars might prefer, if they could get over the wall? Would the Speaker of the House, with a discretionary budget on top of a $300-million fortune, and in a time of epic political rancor, not have a team of security guards in place at her private home?Initial news media chatter had both DePape and Paul Pelosi dressed in their underwear, struggling over a hammer which turned out to belong to Mr. Pelosi. Not until the police entered the house did DePape wrest the hammer from Mr. Pelosi and commence to brain him with it. What does the arrest report actually say about the two men’s state-of-dress? It is not public information. How and why were the police just watching until DePape assaulted Mr. Pelosi — who was hospitalized afterward and had surgery on his cracked skull? (Uh, how did a blow that literally broke his skull not kill the elderly Mr. Pelosi?)The news media initially suggested that somebody — a third person on the scene — opened the door to let the police in. Now they are saying no such person was there.
Musk's Twitter: 'This is exactly what many of us were worried about' - A day after Elon Musk seemed to confirm critics’ worst fears about his ownership of Twitter by tweeting out right-wing misinformation from his personal account, political leaders and operatives wrestled with a loaded question: Would the most important social-media platform in the political world survive his ownership?And if it did, should they stay on it?“This is exactly what many of us were worried about,” said Mark Jablonowski, the managing partner of Democratic digital advertising firm DSPolitical.Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), who chairs the House Energy and Commerce panel on consumer protection, said she was worried about Twitter becoming “a platform that is a sewer of hateful and harmful content” and planned to leave if Musk allowed it to become more of a Wild West.The immediate anxiety comes from a false story about the brutal attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, that Musk personally tweeted over the weekend. Musk has now deleted the tweet, but the story continues to ricochet around the conservative political world.In the larger sense, political players are worried that Musk’s promises to bring Twitter’s policies closer in line with his own ideas about politics and society, as well as his firing of its top accountability executives, will permanently change a platform they’ve come to rely on, and trust to police misinformation and hate speech.Musk has left no doubt who’s in charge of the company since he took Twitter private Thursday night. He renamed himself “Chief Twit” on his official bio, and told the Securities and Exchange Commission that he dissolved the board and named himself sole director. Musk himself acknowledged the concerns about Twitter’s future directly last week when he assured advertisers that Twitter wouldn’t become a “hellscape” and will be “warm and welcoming to all.” He also promised to set up a “content moderation council” that will presumably set standards for policing the site.
Musk personally led call with civil rights groups to address hate speech on Twitter - Twitter CEO Elon Musk single-handedly led a call on Tuesday with civil rights groups in an effort to assure them that he would curtail hate speech — and stop the spread of misinformation ahead of the midterm elections.Musk said that Twitter employees responsible for election integrity who had been locked out of their moderation tools during the company’s acquisition will have their access reinstated by the end of the week, three people on the call confirmed.Musk also said that users banned by the platform — including former President Donald Trump — will remain off the site “for at least a few more weeks.”Seven civil rights and policy groups were on the call with the tech billionaire, who handled the meeting solo, apparently without additional staff joining him. The gathering was part of Musk’s effort to set up a “content moderation council,” which would presumably police users and content on the platform — and help ease concerns from worried advertisers. Musk said Tuesday night that he wanted his council to “include representatives with widely divergent views, which will certainly include the civil rights community and groups who face hate-fueled violence.”Twitter has acknowledged a surge in hateful content in the days since Musk took over. And while Musk himself has said he didn’t want the site to become a “hellscape,” a tweet from his account on Sunday that forwarded a false story about Paul Pelosi has stirred controversy and led some advertisers toconsider pausing their business dealings with Twitter.
Musk sends email to Twitter employees, confirming plans for mass layoffs Friday: report - Elon Musk will begin mass layoffs at Twitter on Friday, the company told employees on Thursday evening, according to multiple outlets. “In an effort to place Twitter on a healthy path, we will go through the difficult process of reducing our global workforce on Friday,” Twitter said in a companywide email, according to The Washington Post.. The company’s 7,500 employees were reportedly told to go home and not come in to Twitter’s offices on Friday amid the cuts, The New York Times reported. Employees will instead receive an email by 9 a.m. Pacific time on Friday that will notify them of the status of their job. Musk, who acquired Twitter last week after closing out his $44 billion purchase of the social media company, is expected to cut to about 50 percent of the work force, according to the Post. “We recognize that this will impact a number of individuals who have made valuable contributions to Twitter, but this action is unfortunately necessary to ensure the company’s success moving forward,” Twitter’s email said, according to the Post.
Overseas bank account fines questioned in Supreme Court clash -U.S. Supreme Court justices questioned the legality of stiff penalties the federal government says it can impose on people who fail to file required reports listing their foreign bank accounts.Hearing arguments in a case with special resonance for Americans living abroad, the justices tested the Biden administration's interpretation of a law the government says deters money laundering and tax evasion.The 75-minute session, briefly interrupted at the beginning by three abortion-rights protesters, didn't give a clear indication as to the outcome.But several justices voiced concerns about unwitting taxpayers being hit with hefty penalties. Justice Samuel Alito pointed to contentions that "many, many people" with foreign bank accounts are unaware of the law and Treasury Department regulations."And if they're aware of it, they're pretty hard to parse," Alito said.The court is hearing an appeal from Alexandru Bittner, a businessman assessed a $2.72 million penalty under the Bank Secrecy Act for not filing timely reports for five years when he was living in Romania. Bittner contends the maximum fine is $50,000.The law, which applies to U.S. citizens and residents, authorizes penalties of as much as $10,000 for unintentional violations.The Internal Revenue Service concluded that Bittner violated the law 272 times, once for each account that was not reported in each of those five years. Bittner says he violated the law at most five times, once for each annual report he failed to file.Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said the government's position penalized people for putting their their money in multiple accounts."You're extracting different penalties from them for this purpose, based on this totally lawful behavior," she told a Justice Department lawyer. "It seems to me to make more sense that Congress was talking about wanting to just know who was doing this kind of thing, for the purpose of this statute."
Convicted ex-UBS trader Tom Hayes has U.S. Libor-fixing indictment dismissed -Tom Hayes, the former UBS Group trader convicted in the U.K. over the Libor-rigging scandal, had a criminal indictment against him dismissed by a New York judge. U.S. prosecutors asked the judge to throw out the case against Hayes saying there was no provable case after an appellate court overturned the convictions of two Deutsche Bank traders over interest rate fixing, according to a court filing. Hayes served about half of his 11 year jail sentence, the most high-profile conviction in a crackdown on the rigging of the London interbank offered rate. He has consistently pushed for his convictions to be quashed, arguing he was made a scapegoat.The U.K.'s Criminal Cases Review Commission provisionally said it wouldn't refer his case to the Court of Appeal but is expected to give its final decision soon, Hayes's spokespeople said.The rigging of Libor and another rate, Euribor, by traders seeking to bolster their positions were among the most high-profile crimes prosecuted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. By 2017, a dozen banks had paid penalties approaching $10 billion for rigging the benchmarks, which are tied to trillions of dollars worth of loans and derivatives."At last, after ten years the threat of extradition to the USA for doing my job legitimately as a trader has been lifted," Hayes said in a statement Monday. "It is now time for the U.K. to examine the convictions of all traders. The U.K. is now the sole jurisdiction that deems our conduct to have been criminal." The SFO closed its seven-year rate-rigging investigation in 2019 after securing three guilty verdicts and a guilty plea against bankers at Barclays. The prosecutor's results were mixed, however, with eight people acquitted in various Libor-related cases. Only a handful of other bank employees have faced criminal charges globally and several of Hayes's alleged co-conspirators were acquitted.
Three 2nd Circuit Judges, all in their 80s, Decide Traders Rigging Libor Wasn’t Really a Crime --By Pam and Russ Martens: November 1, 2022 ~ Life in the United States of America increasingly feels like a bad translation of a Kafka novel. We are specifically referring today to the arbiters of justice in our society – the men and women appointed as lifetime judges on the U.S. Supreme Court, federal appellate courts and federal district courts. These courts have now become Kafkaesque with no apparent means for the public to hold these judges accountable for their actions.There is Justice Clarence Thomas on the U.S. Supreme Court making rulings in matters impacting Donald Trump while his wife, Ginni Thomas, was one of the people plotting to help Trump overturn the election of President Joe Biden. (Also see our report: The Money Trail to the Ginni Thomas Emails to Overturn Biden’s Election Leads to Charles Koch.)We have Judge Aileen M. Cannon, appointed by Donald Trump, who sits on the Federal District Court for the Southern District of Florida, inserting herself in a case involving Trump’s purloining of Top Secret documents from the U.S. government andinitially ruling that the Department of Justice could not get access to those documents to pursue a criminal investigation.We have five justices on the U.S. Supreme Court effectively ruling that a woman’s right to control her own body will now require local politicians to be involved. (Four of the five Supreme Court justices who overturned the right of women to control their own bodies are men.)Which brings us to the latest news that federal prosecutors asked a federal court todismiss a criminal indictment against Tom Hayes, a former Wall Street trader charged by the Justice Department with rigging the interest rate benchmark known as Libor. Federal prosecutors say that they had no choice but to ask for the dismissal of the case because three federal judges on the Second Circuit Appellate Court ruled that (despite successful jury trials on the Libor issue, convictions and billions of dollars in fines paid by the banks for the illegal Libor activity) it wasn’t really illegal at all. The Tom Hayes case is a textbook example of how to bring a market rigging case. The Justice Department prosecutors had reams of chat room messages where Hayes requested other traders to move Libor in a specific direction in order to make profits for himself and UBS, the global bank where he worked. The unit of UBS that was involved, UBS Japan, pled guilty to felony wire fraud and admitted its role in manipulating Libor. UBS paid more than $1.5 billion to settle the charges with prosecutors and regulators in the U.S., the U.K. and Switzerland.UBS is represented by legions of lawyers from the most prestigious law firms around the world. Does anyone really think it paid $1.5 billion when its traders did nothing wrong?
Deutsche Bank warned by German watchdog to fix controls or face fines -Deutsche Bank was told by the German financial watchdog BaFin that it must fix its controls within given deadlines if it wants to avoid a financial punishment. “BaFin ordered Deutsche Bank on Sept. 28, 2022, to take specific actions to prevent money laundering and terrorism financing," the watchdog said in a statement late Friday. "It threatened to impose fines in case of noncompliance." Under Chief Executive Christian Sewing, Deutsche Bank has long struggled to sufficiently improve its compliance systems and anti-financial-crime bulwarks to satisfy regulators. BaFin and other watchdogs, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have repeatedly criticized the lender over what they say are deficiencies. "We are fully aligned with BaFin on the necessary measures and have already completed a large proportion of them," a Deutsche Bank spokesman said in an email. "We have, and will continue, to invest the resources and management attention necessary to improve our control environment and to meet regulatory expectations." BaFin's announcement contains "no new findings," the bank spokesman said. Deutsche Bank has been spending billions of euros in a campaign spanning several years to fill the persistent holes in its controls. A decision last year to once again step up investment on the issue was a key reason Sewing has missed several cost targets, Bloomberg has reported. Sewing has managed to resolve several of Deutsche Bank's older legal matters, and the amounts paid by the lender to settle them have tended to be lower than in the past. In addition, the bank has a much higher capital cushion than just a few years ago, making it possible to digest even potentially large fines.
Ex-Deutsche Bank trader asks top court to quash spoofing conviction An ex-Deutsche Bank precious-metals trader has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn his conviction for manipulating gold and silver prices with fake "spoof" trade orders.James Vorley, who was based in London, was found guilty by a federal jury trial in Chicago in 2021 after they found that he made bogus trade orders between 2008 and 2014 to illegally influence metals prices. Cedric Chanu, his colleague at Deutsche, was also found guilty and will file a separate judicial review.The prosecution of Vorley and Chanu was part of a U.S. crackdown on illegal spoofing cases since the global market "flash crash" in 2010. Spoofing is when a trader enters buy or sell orders and then cancels them before they are executed, creating false market indicators which the spoofer then exploits for profit by taking the opposite position.While canceling orders isn't prohibited, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act made it illegal to place orders with no intention of executing them.Vorley, who was sentenced to a year in prison, asked the Supreme Court to quash his conviction arguing that the orders were not fraudulent and the case "threatens to criminalize virtually any conduct that a prosecutor deems deceptive or dishonest," according to the filing."Under the government's theory, a trader who secretly hopes to cancel a bid commits criminal fraud against other traders, even if the trader is willing and able to honor every bid or offer," his lawyers said in the filing.Vorley also claims that prosecutors violated the Speedy Trial Act, which sets time limits for the various stages of criminal prosecutions. A lower court had previously rejected both Vorley and Chanu's appeals.A spokesperson for Deutsche Bank and lawyers for Vorley didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Wells Fargo faces U.S. demand for record fine exceeding $1 billion - Wells Fargo is under pressure from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to pay more than $1 billion to settle a series of investigations into mistreatment of customers, a deal that would shatter the agency's previous record — also with Wells Fargo. The regulator's demand in confidential talks, described by people with direct knowledge of the matter, reflects its escalating frustration with the bank, which has been punished multiple times by authorities over the past six years for a variety of past abuses. In March, CFPB Director Rohit Chopra vowed to ratchet up sanctions on large, repeat offenders, potentially even limiting their ability to engage in certain businesses.The latest talks with the CFPB span automobile lending, consumer-deposit accounts and mortgage lending, Wells Fargo said in a filing this week, without gauging the size of the potential payment. The bank set aside $2 billion in the third quarter to cover a variety of regulatory and legal issues, including making harmed customers whole. The figures discussed by negotiators in the CFPB talks are around $1 billion, the people said.Spokespeople for the regulator and bank declined to comment.Under Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf, Wells Fargo has been trying to resolve a slew of scandals that erupted in 2016 with the revelation that the bank opened millions of bogus accounts. Problems surfaced across business lines, resulting in the ousters of two CEOs and a number of costly penalties including the Federal Reserve's decision to cap the bank's assets. Scharf warned in October that the charge in the third quarter "isn't the end of it."
Tether bank-fraud probe gets fresh look by Justice Department -A Justice Department probe into a controversial corner of the crypto world — Tether — has been struggling to reach a conclusion. Now a new team is taking a crack at investigating whether executives behind the popular stablecoin committed a crime. Last year, federal prosecutors in Washington warned top officials at Tether that they could be charged for allegedly deceiving banks they used to move cash, people familiar with the situation said at the time. But after months of legal wrangling, the case has been transferred within the department, according to people familiar with the matter.U.S. Attorney Damian Williams in Manhattan took over the inquiry in recent weeks, the people said, asking not to be named discussing the confidential case. His office, based in the Southern District of New York, has been one of the most aggressive in pursuing suspected cryptocurrency crimes and recently secured a guilty plea from a person affiliated with one of Tether's payment processors.The unusual decision to move an investigation after it's reached such a late stage underscores the uncertain legal terrain in the rapidly developing realm of digital currencies, according to former federal prosecutors. The Southern District office's experience tracking money flows in banking and crypto probes may also give it an edge in gathering evidence or establishing other sources of information, they said.Transferring cases "doesn't happen often and there's going to be pretty individual, unique circumstances each time," said Robertson Park, a partner at Davis Wright Tremaine who previously spent two decades in the Justice Department's fraud section. But passing crypto cases to certain offices could become more common and makes sense, he said. "There's a steep learning curve for folks who get involved in these investigations and probably a fairly limited number of people who have real experience and understanding." Representatives for Tether, the Justice Department and Williams' office declined to comment. An investigation doesn't mean that charges will necessarily result.When Bloomberg reported the existence of the criminal probe last year, Tether referred to the article as "years-old allegations.""Tether routinely has open dialogue with law enforcement agencies, including the U.S. Department of Justice, as part of our commitment to cooperation, transparency and accountability," the company said at the time. "We are proud of our role as industry leaders in promoting cooperation between industry and government authorities in the U.S. and around the world."Tether is the third-biggest cryptocurrency, with a market value of about $69 billion that trails only Bitcoin and Ether, according to CoinMarketCap. The stablecoin was first issued in 2014, serving as a digital stand-in for dollars. By accepting Tether, exchanges could offer traders price stability, letting them park their balances without being exposed to bitcoin's gyrations. Tether's creators have said that each token is backed by a U.S. dollar, either in cash or other holdings, such as U.S. Treasuries.
Crypto political giving falls right before U.S. midterm elections - Crypto executives pulled back on political giving in the immediate run-up to the Nov. 8 midterm elections, a move that followed the crash in digital currencies like bitcoin and ether.The industry emerged as a significant player in political spending in 2022 and outpaced donor groups such as drugmakers and defense contractors for much of the current two-year election cycle. There has been a spike in the number of political action committees backed by digital-asset companies and executives, including GMI PAC — a super-PAC whose top contributors include FTX Trading Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Sam Bankman-Fried, the stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Financial and the venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz. But recent campaign-finance filings to the Federal Election Commission show this spending, which has topped $80 million since January 2021, slowed significantly as candidates entered the final stretch of the midterm election races.In the third quarter, donors typically pour more money into campaigns and other political committees than any other period. Yet crypto has given around $5 million or less each month since July, with September's $3.9 million representing a 63% drop from the $10.4 million in June. The slump continued in the first 19 days of October, with a haul of less than $600,000.There's probably more than one reason behind the drop in political giving — which could include donors' preferences to focus on primaries rather than general elections as a way to shift sentiment about the industry within the parties. But it's likely driven largely by the general decline in the crypto market and token prices this year, said Kristin Smith, executive director of the Blockchain Association, which recently launched its own crypto-focused PAC. "Those who work in the crypto industry are often heavily invested in crypto and oftentimes part of their compensation, if they work at a company, is in crypto. So when prices are down, people have less money to spend," said Smith, an active donor.
Cash is flowing from stablecoins to Treasuries, Circle CEO says -Investment is flowing out of stablecoins into assets like U.S. Treasuries in response to prevailing macroeconomic conditions, according to Circle Internet Financial Chief Executive Jeremy Allaire. Rising interest rates have led institutions to rethink how much exposure they want to crypto and instead purchase lower-risk assets like U.S. government bonds or money market instruments, Allaire said in an interview Friday."This is just a macro phenomenon," Allaire, whose company operates the USD Coin stablecoin, said on the sidelines of the Singapore FinTech Festival. "That's not in our control really."The market capitalization of USD Coin, also known as USDC, has dropped from a recent peak of about $56 billion to just over $42 billion, data from CoinGecko shows. Circle says the token — the second-largest stablecoin and the fifth-largest cryptocurrency — is fully backed by cash and short-dated U.S. Treasuries.Stablecoins, which typically pledge a constant $1 value, shot up the regulatory agenda this year following the $60 billion wipeout in the algorithmic variant TerraUSD and its sister token Luna. The implosion exacerbated this year's digital-asset rout and sparked blowups at a range of crypto outfits."We've been extremely skeptical of projects in algorithmic stablecoins," Allaire said. "It's kind of what I like to call financial alchemy."TerraUSD was meant to have a constant $1 value via a complex mix of algorithms and trader incentives involving Luna. The edifice crumbled when confidence in the ecosystem evaporated.Circle's plan for a merger with the special-purpose acquisition company Concord Acquisition Corp. has met with delays. Allaire said he's optimistic Circle can become a public company in the "near future." Earlier in the week, Circle said it received a license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore to offer digital-token payment services. It had previously identified Singapore as its principal hub in Asia.
N.Y. Fed: CBDC could make cross-border settlements faster, safer, more efficient — A central bank digital currency paired with blockchain technology could make cross-border payments faster, safer and more efficient, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has found. The New York Fed released the initial findings of its Project Cedar initiative, a multiphase research effort aimed at designing and testing the uses of a wholesale central bank digital currency, or CBDC, on Friday morning.Unlike a retail CBDC, which would be used by individual bank customers, a wholesale CBDC would be used for payment clearing and settlement between banks, governments, official institutions and nonbank financial companies. Project Cedar is the first undertaking of the New York Innovation Center, a research group formed within the New York Fed last year in partnership with the Bank for International Settlements Innovation Hub. The center studies technological innovation within the banking and finance sectors that could benefit central banking. There is skepticism about the usefulness of a digital dollar, including among some of the Fed's current and former governors and reserve bank presidents. The Fed has yet to take a firm stance on whether it will pursue its own digital currency. Still, the central bank has committed to studying the matter.Project Cedar joins the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's Project Hamilton, a partnership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology focused on CBDCs more broadly. The Boston Fed's initiative rolled out its first findings in February.Since then, the argument in favor of a central bank digital currency has gained traction, through supportive government research, advocacy in Congress and speeches from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard that have been more deferential to the concept. In rolling out its findings, the New York Fed noted that it was merely adding to the dialogue about CBDCs and it has taken no stance on whether one should be adopted in the U.S. Still, while the report noted there were more questions to be answered, its findings were largely positive.
CFPB probes U.S. Bank over unemployment payments during pandemic - U.S. Bancorp is the latest bank to face an investigation by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau into the administration of unemployment insurance payments on prepaid debit cards during the pandemic.The Minneapolis company disclosed the CFPB probe in a securities filing Tuesday. It also said that it is cooperating fully with all pending investigations. A company spokesperson declined Wednesday to provide further comment.U.S. Bancorp's filing did not specifically mention fraud, but numerous banks have been contending with the consequences of fraud in connection with expanded unemployment insurance payments during the COVID-19 pandemic.U.S. Bank is one of the largest players in the business of distributing unemployment benefits. Since the start of the pandemic, the Minneapolis bank has had contracts with government agencies in more than 15 states.In March 2020, Congress bolstered the funds available to workers who lost their jobs as a result of the health crisis. During a six-month span in 2020, an estimated 9.9% of the money paid in four states under two temporary pandemic-era unemployment programs went to likely fraudsters, according to a recent audit by the U.S. Department of Labor's inspector general.In July of this year, Bank of America was fined $225 million by the CFPB and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in connection with problems that occurred at the height of the pandemic, particularly in California, where the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank has the contract to distribute unemployment benefits on prepaid debit cards.The regulators said that BofA failed to respond to tens of thousands of cardholders who reported unauthorized transactions, and also that the bank blocked thousands of legitimate beneficiaries from accessing their funds.BofA has mostly pulled out of the government benefits business, and other banks are also retreating amid changes in the economics of the business.Late last year, KeyCorp decided to stop providing prepaid cards for jobless benefits in Illinois — a decision that contributed to a 24% decline in the company's fee income from cards and payment services during the first quarter."Banks are payment processors, and they are being asked to get involved in stopping the fraud," Haywood "Woody" Talcove, the CEO of LexisNexis Special Services, told American Banker earlier this year. "Why would a bank continue to provide a service when they're losing money?"U.S. Bank, the banking subsidiary of U.S. Bancorp, is one of the largest players in the business of distributing unemployment benefits. Recipients access their funds on a reloadable prepaid debit card from U.S. Bank called ReliaCard.
Top US Banks Under Investigation Over ESG And Climate Action - A coalition of 19 state attorneys general from across the country launched a formal investigation into six major U.S. banks last week citing legal concerns about banks’ “ESG” investing and their involvement with a United Nations alliance fighting CO2 emissions. The banks “appear to be colluding with the U.N. to destroy American companies” and undermine the nation’s best interests, one of the AGs warned in a statement e-mailed to The Epoch Times. Another AG argued that these U.N.-inspired banking policies were resulting in jobs being sent to communist China as the regime there continues building coal-fired power plants to ensure low-cost, reliable energy. The new investigation is the latest salvo by Republican-led states amid growing nationwide concerns about the “woke” policies of financial institutions and other powerful business interests. Multiple attorneys general who spoke to The Epoch Times about the probe said it was their job to enforce consumer protection laws and protect citizens in their states from potentially illegal activity by companies. In particular, officials are investigating the banks’ involvement in the controversial United Nations Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA). The global network of banks, convened and overseen by the U.N., pledges to eliminate emissions of so-called “greenhouse gases” by 2050 by transforming their lending and investment practices. Numerous AGs sounded the alarm about the U.N.’s involvement in targeting key American industries as banks cede policymaking influence to the global organization. The top law-enforcement officers for the group of mostly Republican-controlled states said they have reason to believe the banks being investigated agreed to align their investing and loan portfolio with U.N. emissions goals. The goals, outlined in the U.N. Paris Agreement on climate change, call for a transformation of the economy away from traditional energy sources. Government and business leaders in developed nations including the United States and Western Europe agreed to pursue significant reductions in CO2. The effect of these policies, the AGs warned, would be to starve key industries of credit—especially companies in the energy and agriculture sectors that are critical to the prosperity and even the national security of the United States. The banks being scrutinized by the top lawmen for their states include Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup. Each of the companies was served last week with civil investigative demands, essentially acting as a subpoena, demanding that they turn over documents related to their involvement in the U.N. NZBA. The banks are also expected to provide records of all “Global Climate Initiatives” in which they are participating, and how these U.N.-backed agendas are being incorporated into their businesses, civil investigative demands reviewed by The Epoch Times show. In addition, the banks are being asked to give details on the involvement of their CEOs in the process and how the decisions were made. Also under scrutiny are banking actions related to “Environmental, Social, and Governance” (ESG) investing. The controversial metrics take into consideration environmental and social policies in making business decisions, rather than simply the traditional metrics of risk and return. Critics say ESG investing is being used to impose unpopular and economically harmful ideas on Americans while forcing businesses across the economy to adopt them.
Republicans to probe Wall Street's climate friendly investments - Less than a week before the midterm elections, Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill are already gearing up to investigate what they see as “woke capitalism,” a reference to Wall Street firms that treat climate change as an economic risk. 10 steps you can take to lower your carbon footprint Polls suggest the GOP will retake the House, and Republicans there are preparing to grill the chief executives of big financial firms as well as Gary Gensler, the Democratic chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, about their efforts to curb climate change. In the Senate, where polls show a toss-up battle for control of the chamber, key senators are pushing legislation to punish businesses that prioritize environmental, social and governance causes — known as ESG — rather than pure profits. The moves are sure to escalate the battle over ESG investing and have a further chilling effect on Wall Street, where some CEOs are scrambling to emphasize that their firms are still investing in fossil fuels. Rep. Garland “Andy” Barr (R-Ky.) said in an interview that ESG principles “will be one of the major focuses of oversight of a Republican majority” on the House Financial Services Committee, which oversees the nation’s banking, insurance and real estate sectors. “My view is that ESG investing is a cancer within our capital markets,” Barr said. “It is a fraud on American investors.” The SEC “is a target of our oversight because of this 534-page monstrosity of a climate disclosure regulation,” he added, referring to a proposed rule that would require all publicly traded companies to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions and the risks they face from climate change. Not everyone is convinced that the Wall Street firms face a real threat from a Republican takeover of Congress. Some see the GOP moves as political theater intended to satisfy the party’s base and fuel the nation’songoing culture wars. The GOP is engaged in “a lot of political hay making,” said Ivan Frishberg, chief sustainability officer at Amalgamated Bank, which does not do business with fossil fuel companies. “But I don’t think this is changing what asset managers or banks are doing in terms of their approach to either their stewardship of assets in a changing climate, or participation in the climate initiatives that they’re a part of.” Yet supporters of sustainable investing are bracing for intense scrutiny if Democrats fare badly in the midterms, leading to high-profile hearings and grilling of administration officials.
U.S. banks processed about $1.2 billion in ransomware payments in 2021 - U.S. banks and financial institutions processed roughly $1.2 billion in likely ransomware payments in 2021, a new record and almost triple the amount of the previous year, according to a federal financial crimes watchdog. The total represents payments bank clients have made to possible cybercriminals. U.S. banks report the suspicious transactions to federal authorities under the Bank Secrecy Act. Over half the ransomware attacks are attributed to suspected Russian cyber hackers, according to a new report released Tuesday from the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, or FinCEN, which analyzed the data. The report reflects a sweeping government effort to identify and report ransomware attacks following the hacking of U.S.-based Colonial Pipeline's IT network in May 2021. Company CEO Joseph Blount Jr. paid Russian-based cybercriminals $5 million. The Department of Justice later recoveredapproximately half of the ransom.Leaders from 36 countries and the European Union met Tuesday in Washington to discuss effective counteraction against ransomware threats. Ransomware attacks are a type of cyberattack where a hacker installs malicious software on a computer or server that threatens to release data or blocks access to it until a ransom is paid. . FinCEN said there were 1,489 ransomware incidents costing nearly $1.2 billion last year, a substantial rise from $416 million in damages recorded in 2020, according to the report. FinCEN's analysis covers 2021, with a focus on the second half of the year. The agency said four of the overall top five ransomware attacks reported during this period are tied to Russia. Around 75% of ransomware-related incidents are also related to the country. The surge in reports might be due to a step up in enforcement since the Colonial Pipeline attack, according to the analysis. The attack shut down the pipeline for days, causing fuel shortages in the Southeast and snarling air traffic across much of the U.S. President Joe Biden declared a state of emergency as a result. In March, Biden signed a measure requiring some businesses to report certain cyber incidents and ransomware payments to the Cybersecurity, Infrastructure and Security Agency. CISA also launched a campaign to reduce the risks of ransomware in January 2021.
Fed ends enforcement action against one of China's Big Four banks -The Federal Reserve has ended a five-year-old enforcement action against one of China's Big Four banks and its New York branch. On Thursday, the Fed terminated a cease-and-desist order leveled against the Agricultural Bank of China and its New York branch in 2016 for failing to meet requirements of anti-money-laundering rules, the Bank Secrecy Act and other compliance regulations. Along with the Fed's cease and desist order, the Agricultural Bank of China, also known as AgBank, was fined $215 million by the New York State Department of Financial Services at the time for violating the state's AML laws. The New York agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this article. By lifting its order, the Fed has signaled that the institutions have implemented the various controls called for in the order, including improving governance and management oversight practices, creating a BSA/AML compliance program and better monitoring suspicious activity. AgBank was also required to improve its compliance with the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Asset Control and conduct a review of its clearing transactions between Oct. 1, 2014, and March 31, 2015, to determine whether suspicious activity had been properly identified and reported. Other stipulations of the cease and desist order called for the banks to improve their practices for handling suspicious activities and vetting customers. AgBank, the third-largest lender in China behind the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and the China Construction Bank Corporation, was one of several prominent Chinese institutions to run afoul of U.S. regulators around that same time frame.
BankThink: Put a former state bank supervisor on the FDIC board | American Banker - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. may finally have a full board of directors in coming months. However, whether the slate of nominees will fully represent the financial supervisors of the entities that the FDIC oversees remains to be seen. There are currently three open board seats. Last month, the Biden administration announced its intention to nominate Travis Hill and Jonathan McKernan. I certainly hope the third nominee is someone with state supervisory experience. I say that not just because Congress added the requirement that at least one FDIC board member have state supervisory experience to the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, but because of its reason for doing so. Much like the requirement that no more than three members of the board can be from the same party, the state supervisory experience amendment ensures perspective that represents the diversity and balance inherent in the nation's dual banking system. As someone who has spent my entire career as either a state bank regulator or working for state bank regulators at the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, I have seen the value of this perspective. State regulators spend countless hours visiting banks across their states, from institutions in bustling cities to those in small towns with one flashing red light. They charter banks that might serve historically underserved populations or ones with unique needs, such as farmers and local entrepreneurs. These institutions are the building blocks of their local economies, and state regulators are on the ground every day ensuring that these banks are providing safe and effective products to their customers. Simply put, no amount of public policy expertise can replace this state supervisory experience. State bank supervisors charter and are the primary regulator of 79% of all U.S. banks, with the FDIC having cooperative oversight at the federal level for most of them. That makes the FDIC arguably one of the most important federal standard-setters for state-chartered banks. The director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sits on the board to represent consumer protection, and the comptroller of the currency's seat on the board represents the national banking system.
Custodia ruling leaves Fed with no good options - Custodia Bank's lawsuit against the Federal Reserve is not going away anytime soon, and the case will likely have major implications for the reach of the Fed's authority.The Fed's effort to have the suit dismissed from the U.S. District Court of Wyoming fell flaton Friday as Chief Judge Scott Skavdahl said it was appropriate for the court to consider why the Cheyenne, Wyoming-based digital asset bank has had to wait two years for a decision on its application for a master account.The Fed now has two options: grant Custodia an account or let the case go to trial. Both routes would establish new precedents and expectations for master accounts — and potentially other matters — according to legal and institutional experts.Should the Fed allow the case to go to trial, it would not only risk being forced into a decision on Custodia's application, it would also have to release a host of previously nondisclosed information during the discovery process. Julie Hill, a University of Alabama law professor whose research focuses on Fed master accounts, said the Fed would almost certainly have to divulge information about master accounts that it keeps closely guarded."Almost everything we know about the master account process … has come through litigation. They don't just let this information out. We know about these things, because of the Fourth Corner [Credit Union] case, because of the Custodia case and because of The [Narrow Bank] case," Hill said, referring to previous master account challenges. "Those are the reasons we know anything about what's happening in the master account realm, so I expect if you actually had a case that went to trial, you would learn all sorts of interesting stuff."The cases involving Fourth Corner, a Denver credit union that sought to serve the state's legal cannabis industry, and The Narrow Bank in Norwalk, Connecticut, which wanted to hold all of its customers' deposits in risk-free reserves at the Fed, were both dismissed before going to trial. The Fed provided some explanation about the master account process in pre-trial court filings, but there was never a discovery process.Custodia says it has built on the rulings from the previous proceedings by ensuring it has a state charter that is in compliance with various federal requirements related to the Bank Secrecy Act, anti-money-laundering requirements and host of other considerations. Custodia argues that the Kansas City Fed's delay in issuing a ruling is having crippling effects on its business.
Fed weighs publishing list of master account holders, applicants -- The Federal Reserve is weighing whether to publish a list of institutions that have accounts at its 12 regional reserve banks. The Fed Board of Governors Friday announced that it is seeking public comment on a proposal to require reserve banks to submit a quarterly report on the depositories in their district that have been granted so-called master accounts, which provide access to the Fed's various payment services.The information on master account holders would then be compiled into a single list published on the Federal Reserve System website, according to a notice filed with the Federal Register on Friday.The Fed is also considering whether to publicize the names of groups that have submitted applications for master accounts, the dates on which they applied and the status of their applications."Today's proposal will enhance transparency to the public by periodically publishing a comprehensive list of financial institutions that have access to Federal Reserve accounts and payment services," Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said in a statement. "I look forward to getting feedback on this proposal for enhanced transparency."Historically, the Fed has made little information about master account related information available to the public, because it has deemed that to be confidential business information.In a statement released Friday afternoon, the Fed said the decision to consider a more public-facing approach to master account management stems from comments received during the rulemaking process for its new framework for granting master accounts, which was finalized in August. The Fed is also under pressure from members of Congress to provide more clarity into the master account granting process.For months, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, has been urging the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City to provide information about its handling of the master account of Reserve Trust, which became the first financial technology to secure an account with a reserve bank. The Denver-based trust later had its account revoked.
Wall Street bonuses duck NYC pay law aimed at fixing wage gaps - New York City's new pay-transparency law has a blind spot: Wall Street bonuses. The law, which took effect Tuesday, requires local employers to make a best estimate of a salary range when posting job openings, ostensibly giving candidates — especially minority and female applicants — a stronger hand in negotiating compensation. Bonuses are excluded, even though they often make up the lion's share of Wall Street pay, meaning those gunning for high-end banking jobs probably won't see much of a benefit. "For jobs where bonuses or commissions are a large part of compensation, a more comprehensive law would be better," Stephanie Bornstein, a professor at the University of Florida's Levin College of Law, said in an interview. "Even if base pay is consistent, total compensation may vary widely, and implicit biases can play a role in bonus setting."Female top executives at S&P 500 companies earned just 75% of what their male counterparts took home in 2020, according to Morningstar. And the higher they climb on the corporate ladder, the worse the disparity becomes. Women across all industries in the U.S. typically make about 83 cents for every dollar a man earns, U.S. Census Bureau data shows.The new law requires employers to make a "good faith" effort to post a salary range, but they don't have to publicize any information on bonuses, commissions or other forms of income.Those types of compensation make up the "great bulk" of many employees' overall pay, according to Richard Rabin, a New York-based partner with Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld. A financial services worker could be making many millions of dollars, he said, but the posted salary range could be as low as $200,000."The bark of this law is worse than its bite," Rabin said. "I don't expect it to be a watershed event."A spokesperson for City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams said commissions and bonuses often can't be determined at the time a job is posted because they're based on intangible factors such as future performance and revenue. Using salary as the basis means the majority of New Yorkers will have transparency about their main source of compensation, the spokesperson said. Bornstein at the University of Florida said the law has the advantage of putting the burden on employers to provide information "that only they have and for which applicants are reluctant to ask." She said studies show that "when pay is left entirely to negotiation, women and racial minorities are disadvantaged by gender and racial stereotypes about how they should behave."The new law joins others across the country that try to address systemic pay disparities, particularly in industries like banking that have long struggled with diversity and wage gaps. At least seven states have some form of a transparency requirement on the books. Colorado's attempt goes a bit further than New York City's law. Employers there must provide a "general" overview of bonuses, commissions and other compensation.
Wells Fargo is in talks with CFPB to settle multiple inquiries - Wells Fargo, which set aside $2 billion last quarter to deal with legal matters, said it's in talks with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to resolve investigations. The negotiations cover "a number of CFPB investigations, inquiries and other matters," including cases involving automobile lending, consumer-deposit accounts and mortgage lending, the San Francisco-based firm said Monday in a regulatory filing. "There can be no assurance as to the outcome of these discussions," the bank said. Wells Fargo said earlier in October that it was setting aside billions for a variety of historical legal matters, including litigation, regulatory cases and efforts to make customers whole.
What happens when the CFPB's funding question hits the Supreme Court? -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is widely expected to end up back before the Supreme Court defending itself for a second time in yet another review of whether the agency's structure is constitutional. Legal experts are gaming out the various options for the CFPB after a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit ruled on Oct. 19 that the bureau's funding is unconstitutional. Three justices appointed by former President Donald Trump unanimously found that the CFPB's funding through the Federal Reserve violates the separation of powers clause because it occurs outside the congressional appropriations process. Constitutional scholars and legal experts said the Supreme Court is likely to expedite a review of the case as early as next year, in its current term, given the potential impact on other federal agencies — particularly the Federal Reserve. A decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit last month could have drastic implications for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and other bank regulators in the likely event that it comes before the Supreme Court. "It is still possible for the court to [hear the case] in this term, and there is precedent in separation of powers challenges for the court to expedite this case," said Deepak Gupta, a Supreme Court and appellate advocate at the law firm Gupta Wessler. "This is the kind of decision that needs to be done in an orderly fashion because there is a lot of chaos in the near term."How the case unfolds may hinge on the outcome of the midterm elections. A Democratically controlled lame-duck Congress may feel an urgency to pass legislation that subjects the CFPB to congressional appropriations. Or if Republicans retake the House, the CFPB's funding structure could be a bargaining chip in future legislative compromises. Some lawyers even say the CFPB could end up in fiscal limbo with no funding after a Supreme Court ruling."The CFPB is between the proverbial rock and a hard place," said Alan Kaplinsky, senior counsel at the law firm Ballard Spahr. "If a Republican-controlled Congress doesn't like what the CFPB is doing, they could certainly prohibit the agency from doing certain things."
CFPB seeks more public input on Big Tech payment platforms The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a second request for public comment on big technology companies and online payment platforms as the agency seeks to better understand risks posed to consumers. The CFPB said Monday that it wants additional public comment on Big Tech platforms' business practices, including whether companies are adhering to key consumer protections and how they may be assessing fines and penalties. The bureau said it is seeking input specifically on Big Tech firms' so-called acceptable use policies, which lay out the constraints a consumer must agree to in order to gain access to certain networks or services. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Monday said it was seeking additional information from tech companies about their business practices and potential consumer protection violations.The bureau received roughly 93 public comments to a request for information last year and plans to reopen the public comment period for 30 days with additional questions. A notice will be published in the Federal Register in coming days with additional information, the CFPB said. "The scale and market power of large technology companies raise concerns about potential new risks to consumers and to broader competition in the marketplace," the bureau said in a press release. "We are seeking additional public input on companies' acceptable use policies and their use of fines, liquidated damages provisions, and other penalties."Last year, CFPB Director Rohit Chopra ordered six of the largest tech firms — Amazon, Apple, Alphabet's Google, Meta, PayPal and Square (now Block) — to provide informationabout their payments platforms. He invited public comment on whether tech platforms were fair and competitive.Chopra has continued to use his position to warn of tech giants' further incursion into the financial sector. Last week, the CFPB unveiled a timetable for its data access rule, known as1033 for its section in the Dodd-Frank Act, that is often referred to as an open banking rulemaking. The CFPB must first convene a small- business review of the rule that would require banks and other financial institutions to turn over bank account data if a consumer requests that the data be shared with a third party. The CFPB's data rights rule is expected to be proposed next year and finalized in 2024.
Big banks take heat from Democrat on deposit rates - Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., has asked the heads of the country's largest banks why they pay relatively low rates on consumers' deposits despite charging borrowers higher interest on loans. As the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate, banks have upped their rates for mortgages, credit cards and other products. Reed's office, in information accompanying the letters to the heads of JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial and PNC Financial Services Group, said that the interest that banks pay on their customers' deposits has hardly changed. "Higher interest rates, which are set by the Federal Reserve to help fight inflation, can raise costs for borrowers, but should also mean higher yields for savers," Reed's office said. "This is due to the fact that savings accounts at a bank effectively allow the bank to borrow the depositor's money, for which the institution pays the customer some form of interest in return." In the letters, Reed, the No. 2 Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, notes that there's a disparity between "average" customers and banks' wealthier clients, who have locked in higher yields. "While average consumers have seen virtually no increase in deposit rates, your bank offers higher-yielding longer-term deposit products to well-off customers who can afford to lock up tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for more than a year," Reed said in the letters. "But these deposit products are out of reach for many Americans who cannot afford them, and they are no substitute for savings accounts that give customers access to their money on demand to pay for rent or utilities." Reed questioned bank CEOs about the difference between the rates banks charge and those they pay out to retail customers in the hearing with the heads of the largest consumer banks in September. Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf said at the time that the bank was "beginning to raise rates." "We have products that have a range of alternatives, I think, up to a peak of 1.5% as of the other day," Scharf said. "And as rates continue to rise, we would expect to continue to increase the rates that we pay our customers."Reed said that since Scharf gave that answer, interest on savings accounts for Wells Fargo customers has "barely budged." The lawmaker, in the letters, requested answers by Nov. 15 as to why banks pay low rates on deposits and charge borrowers high interest rates.
Biden hits new midterm note, targeting 'junk' banking and airline fees -President Biden has added a last-minute boast about his administration's efforts to eliminate surprise banking and airline fees to his stump speech, just four days from midterm elections that will determine whether Democrats retain control of Congress."I'm doing away with unfair hidden fees," Biden said at a Democratic Party rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on Thursday, before making similar remarks in suburban California. "You bounce a check, and you have to pay $35 bucks or $50 bucks. You have an excess credit card fee of $50 bucks if you're late on your payment. Ending those. They're gone."Rising prices and fears of a coming recession have dragged on Democrats' prospects heading into next week's vote, and the White House has struggled to persuade Americans that Biden's policies will reduce their household costs. The president has previously pointed to measures he's signed into law that would cut some prescription drug prices in Medicare and extend Affordable Care Act subsidies.The Transportation Department and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau have been signaling a crackdown on airline and banking fees for months, although Biden has only recently begun to mention them on the trail. The CFPB released guidance last week at a White House event, following rulemaking in June on bank charges Biden derided as "junk fees." It isn't clear if Biden and Democrats can capitalize on the issue with voters, with polls suggesting headwinds for their party in the waning days of the campaign.\
Swipe fees may come to a head in lame-duck Congress — A bill that aims to reduce the largest payment networks' leverage on swipe fees could get new life after the midterm elections come to a close. The legislation, spearheaded by Sens. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., and Roger Marshall, R-Kan., would require large banks to allow credit card transactions to occur on at least two unaffiliated networks. One of them would have to be a smaller network, rather than Visa or Mastercard. The House has also introduced companion legislation. The bill was originally introduced in July, but its proponents' hopes to pass it into law have since been tied to the National Defense Authorization Act, which lawmakers plan to take up in the lame-duck session after the lawmakers return to Washington following the 2022 midterm elections. That makes the bill one of the only items of interest for banks during the lame-duck session. While an aide on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which is helmed by Durbin, cautioned that it's still unclear whether the NDAA will allow the amendment to be attached, they expect to push to have the legislation included in either the NDAA or a funding bill before the new Congress is sworn in. The aide said that the number of amendments that will be attached to must-pass pieces of legislation can vary widely. Although the NDAA is still the primary method of getting the amendment through, the aide said, an appropriations bill could also provide another vehicle for riders, including the credit card legislation. "Congress could pass an appropriations package but that will ultimately depend on the results of the election," said Andrew Olmem, a partner in Mayer Brown's Washington office and former deputy director of the U.S. National Economic Council under former President Donald Trump, and Republican chief counsel for the Senate Banking Committee. "Even if it does so, only policy riders with strong bipartisan support would have a chance at being included, as there won't be votes to spare."A few factors make the timing of passing the amendment into law more urgent. The results of the 2022 midterms could change the political calculus of getting the amendment passed. Although the bill is cosponsored by lawmakers of each party, fierce opposition from the banking industry would make the bill more difficult to pass in a Republican-controlled Senate or House. If either chamber flips, Senate leadership might allow more riders to be attached to must-pass legislation before Republicans set the agenda in the new year. Rising concerns about inflation are also spurring lawmakers to consider the swipe fee legislation before Republicans wrest control of either chamber after the 2022 midterms. Swipe fees rise with inflation, padding the bottom lines of both Visa and Mastercard. Some banks also rely on the fees for a significant share of their profit, making it an effective hedge against inflation while other business lines become less profitable.
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in September Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.69% in September from 0.72% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.62% in September 2021. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.41% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.48% in August). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.83% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.95%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.55% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.57%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.Mortgages in forbearance were counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they were not reported to the credit bureaus.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 28, 2022. This week’s results include revised data to reflect an update to last week’s survey results.... The Refinance Index increased 0.2 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 41 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage applications declined for the sixth consecutive week despite a slight drop in rates. The 30-year fixed rate decreased for the first time in over two months to 7.06 percent, but remained close to its highest since 2002,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Apart from the ARM loan rate, rates for all other loan types were more than three percentage points higher than they were a year ago. These elevated rates continue to put pressure on both purchase and refinance activity and have added to the ongoing affordability challenges impacting the broader housing market, as seen in the deteriorating trends in housing starts and home sales.”Added Kan: “With most homeowners locked into significantly lower rates, refinance applications continued to run more than 80 percent below last year’s pace, while the refinance share of applications was 28.6 percent – the fifth straight week below 30 percent.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 7.06 percent from 7.16 percent, with points decreasing to 0.73 from 0.88 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year.The refinance index is near the lowest level since the year 2000.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase indexAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 41% year-over-year unadjusted.The purchase index is 12% below the pandemic low and at the lowest level since 2015.
CoreLogic: House Prices up 11.4% YoY in September; Declined 0.5% MoM in September NSA - Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for August. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: While Buyer Demand Cools, Home Prices Dropped by 0.5% in September From the Previous Month: CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2022.U.S. home price growth continued to relax on a year-over-year basis in September, posting an 11.4% increase. As in previous months, Southeastern states put up significantly higher price gains than the national growth rate, with Florida again leading the country for the eighth consecutive month. Although rising mortgage rates continue to dampen housing demand nationwide, out-migration from more expensive states on the West Coast and in the Northeast is likely fueling homebuyer enthusiasm for properties in relatively more affordable Southeastern states. CoreLogic expects annual U.S. home price growth to continue to slow over the next 12 months to 3.9% by September 2023.“The rapid increase in prices during the COVID-19 pandemic caused many U.S. housing markets to reach completely unaffordable levels for potential local homebuyers,” said Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “On the West Coast and in Mountain-West states, home prices are slowing from this spring’s high but remain elevated from a year ago. By contrast, markets that continue to see an in-migration of higher-income households are still experiencing home price gains that are notably higher than the national rate of appreciation.”...U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased 11.4% year over year in September 2022 compared to September 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.5% compared to August 2022.
The Entry-Level House Has Become A Myth; Few Can Afford Them - With vanishing inventory, soaring mortgage rates, and stubbornly high prices, there's little left of the starter home idea... The once-ubiquitous entry-level home is now mostly a myth. Point2Homes comments on Starter Homes & Where to Find Them. Once upon a time, nearly 70% of all new builds were starter homes — single-family houses with 1,400 square feet or less that started at $6,990. But that was in the 1940s. Fast forward to 1980 and that share fell to 40%. Then, in 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that a mere 7% of all new homes were represented by the small, entry-level homes that are affordable for first-time buyers — and the prices aren’t even remotely similar.Due to the increasing cost of land, as well as zoning restrictions and skyrocketing costs for building materials, the modest, bare-bones homes of yesteryear have become the stuff of myths and legends — the actual unicorns of the real estate market. More elusive than ever, this type of home seems almost extinct. Based on the latest renter income figures, starter home prices and mortgage rates, in October, renters in Los Angeles and New York only earned 30% and 34%, respectively, of the income they would need to buy a starter home. When Is a Starter Home Not a Starter Home? When It Costs $1 Million.The median starter home in San Francisco costs as much as the median starter homes in the top 10 most affordable cities combined.The average renter household made $100,715, but the amount a first-time buyer would need to comfortably cover mortgage payments was $251,190. This means that San Francisco renters are $150,475 (or 60%) short of making their homeownership dreams come true. Moreover, in three other cities (San Jose, CA; Los Angeles; and New York), renters were more than $100,000 short of the amount they would need to cover their mortgage on a starter home. In fact, Los Angeles renters had it the worst: They’re making 70% less than the amount they would need to comfortably cover their monthly mortgage.
Year-over-year Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Year-over-year Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow. A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through September 2022 (Apartment List through October 2022).Note that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady. Then new leases took off, and the BLS measures are picking up....The Zillow measure is up 10.8% YoY in September, down from 12.3% YoY in August. This is down from a peak of 17.2% YoY in February.The ApartmentList measure is up 5.9% YoY as of October, down from 7.5% in September. This is down from the peak of 18.0% YoY last November.Rents are still increasing YoY, and we should expect this to continue to spill over into measures of inflation. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 6.7% YoY in September, from 6.3% YoY in August - and will likely increase further in the coming months even as rents slow sharply.... My suspicion is rent increases will slow further over the coming months as the pace of household formation slows, and more supply comes on the market. Housing economist Tom Lawler recentlywrote: "An actual decline in rents next year would be a reasonable base case"
Construction Spending Increased 0.2% in September --From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during September 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,811.1 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised August estimate of $1,807.0 billion. The September figure is 10.9 percent above the September 2021 estimate of $1,632.9 billion.Private spending increased and public spending decreased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,450.3 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised August estimate of $1,444.9 billion. ...In September, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $360.9 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised August estimate of $362.1 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Residential (red) spending is 35% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation). Non-residential (blue) spending is 28% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars).Public construction spending is 11% above the peak in March 2009.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 12.7%. Non-residential spending is up 10.5% year-over-year. Public spending is up 7.1% year-over-year.This was above consensus expectations of a 0.5% decrease in spending; and construction spending for the previous two months combined were revised up sharply.
Q3 2022 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate - The BEA released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report on Friday. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures increased at a 3.7% annual pace in Q3. Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q3 compared to Q2 and was up 22% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q3 and was down 1.3% year-over-year. And still declining as a percent of GDP.Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 16% year-over-year in Q3 - from a very low level. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.Lodging investment increased in Q3 compared to Q2, and lodging investment was up 6% year-over-year. All three sectors - offices, malls, and hotels - were hurt significantly by the pandemic. The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes).Investment in single family structures was $438 billion (SAAR) (about 1.7% of GDP) and was unchanged year-over-year. Investment in multi-family structures was up in Q3 from Q2.Investment in home improvement was at a $335 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q3 (about 1.3% of GDP). Home improvement spending was strong during the pandemic but has declined as a percent of GDP recently.Note that Brokers' commissions (black) increased sharply as existing home sales increased in the second half of 2020 but was down in Q3 2022. Brokers' commissions were down 15% year-over-year in Q3 (and down sharply as a percent of GDP).
Vehicles Sales "Surge" to 14.90 million SAAR in October - Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October. Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 million SAAR in October 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 10.4% from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% from October 2021. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales decreased late last year due to supply issues. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.Sales in October were above the consensus forecast of 14.3 million SAAR.
Trade Deficit increased to $73.3 Billion in September --From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.3 billion in September, up $7.6 billion from $65.7 billion in August, revised. September exports were $258.0 billion, $2.8 billion less than August exports. September imports were $331.3 billion, $4.8 billion more than August imports.Exports decreased and imports increased in September.Exports are up 22% year-over-year; imports are up 14% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and have now bounced back.The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, exports of petroleum products are slightly positive.The trade deficit with China increased to $37.3 billion in September, from $36.4 billion a year ago.The trade deficit was slightly higher than the consensus forecast.
AAR: October Rail Carloads Up Slightly Year-over-year, Intermodal Down --From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. October is usually a top month for carloads, and that’s the case in 2022. Total originated U.S. carloads averaged 238,019 per week in October 2022, the most since May 2021 and up 0.5% over October 2021. ... U.S. intermodal volume fell 1.4% ... its 14th decline in the past 15 months. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022:Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads averaged 238,019 per week in October 2022, the most since May 2021 and up 0.5% over October 2021. Typically, October is the second highest month of the year for total carloads (behind August), although there is more variability for monthly rankings for total carloads than there is for intermodal. The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers): Intermodal volume on U.S. railroads averaged 265,606 containers and trailers per week in October 2022, down 1.4% from October 2021. It’s the eighth straight monthly decline and the 14th decline in the past 15 months. High inventories at many retailers; warehouses that are generally still clogged (related to high inventories); the fact that many retailers moved up orders to earlier in the year to ensure delivery before the holiday season; and lower port volumes are some of the reasons why intermodal volumes this year are not as high as they otherwise would be.
ISM® Manufacturing index Declined to 50.2% in October -- The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.2% in October, down from 50.9% in September. The employment index was at 50.0%, up from 48.7% last month, and the new orders index was at 49.2%, up from 47.1%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.2% October 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The October Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the 50.9 percent recorded in September. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 29th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in September. The Production Index reading of 52.3 percent is a 1.7-percentage point increase compared to September’s figure of 50.6 percent. The Prices Index registered 46.6 percent, down 5.1 percentage points compared to the September figure of 51.7 percent. This is the index’s lowest reading since May 2020 (40.8 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.3 percent, 5.6 percentage points lower than the September reading of 50.9 percent. After one month of contraction, the Employment Index was unchanged at 50 percent, 1.3 percentage points higher than the 48.7 percent recorded in September. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 46.8 percent is 5.6 percentage points lower than the September figure of 52.4 percent. This reading, the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 percent), ended a streak of 79 months in ‘slowing’ territory. The Inventories Index registered 52.5 percent, 3 percentage points lower than the September reading of 55.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 46.5 percent is down 1.3 percentage points compared to September’s figure of 47.8 percent. This is the index’s lowest figure since May 2020, when it registered 39.5 percent. The Imports Index remained in expansion territory at 50.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points below the September reading of 52.6 percent.” This suggests manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in October than in September. This was slightly above the consensus forecast.
October S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI: Subdued Growth -The October S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 50.4, down 1.6 from the final September figure. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.Here is an excerpt from IHS Markit in their latest press release: “October PMI data signalled a subdued start to the final quarter of 2022, as US manufacturers recorded a renewed and solid drop in new orders. Domestic and foreign demand weakened due to greater hesitancy among clients as prices rose further and amid dollar strength. As such, efforts to clear backlogs of work, rather than new order inflows, drove the latest upturn in production.“Confidence in the outlook waned as underlying data also highlighted efforts to cut costs and adjust to more subdued demand conditions in the coming months. Input buying fell sharply and resilience in employment stumbled, as the pace of job creation eased to only a marginal rate. “On a more positive note, input costs rose at the slowest pace in almost two years amid signs of reduced disruption in supply chains. Lower demand for inputs was a contributing factor to this, however. Nevertheless, softer hikes in costs were reflected in a slower uptick in output charges, as firms sought to pass on cost savings where possible to try and boost sales.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
Chicago PMI Dipped in October =-- The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, dropped to 45.2 in September from 45.7 in September, which is in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity. Let's take a look at the Chicago PMI since its inception. Here's a closer look at the indicator since 2000. (see graphs)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Growth Outlook Worsens in October -The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for October. The latest general business activity index came in at -19.4, down 2.2 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:Growth in Texas factory activity continued in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged down three points to 6.0, suggesting a slight deceleration in output growth.Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened in October. The general business activity index posted a sixth consecutive negative reading and edged down from -17.2 to -19.4. The company outlook index also remained negative and was largely unchanged at -9.1. The outlook uncertainty index pushed higher to 38.3.Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity were mixed in October. The future production index remained positive, though it plummeted 25 points to 3.1, its lowest reading since April 2020. The future general business activity index remained negative and largely unchanged at -21.2. Other measures of future manufacturing activity saw large declines in index values this month, though most remained in positive territory, with the exception of the future new orders index, which fell to -4.5. Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator.
October Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview -Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia.Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP.The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated." The latest average of the five for October is -10.8, down from the previous month.
ISM® Services Index Decreased to 54.4% in October --The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, down from 56.7% last month. The employment index decreased to 49.1%, from 53.0%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4% October 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business® “In October, the Services PMI® registered 54.4 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than September’s reading of 56.7 percent. This is the lowest reading since May 2020, when the index registered 45.2 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.7 percent, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the reading of 59.1 percent in September. The New Orders Index figure of 56.5 percent is 4.1 percentage points lower than the September reading of 60.6 percent. This was lower than expected and the employment index was below 50.
BLS: Job Openings Increased to 10.7 million in September -From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - The number of job openings increased to 10.7 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The number of hires edged down to 6.1 million, while total separations decreased to 5.7 million. Within separations, quits (4.1 million) changed little and layoffs and discharges (1.3 million) edged down.The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.This series started in December 2000.Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for September the employment report this Friday will be for October.Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings increased in September to 10.717 million from 10.280 million in August. The number of job openings (black) were up slightly year-over-year. Quits were down 5% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
Job Market Refuses to Soften, Fed Gets More Stuffing for Rate Hikes: Layoffs, Quits, Job Openings, Hires -- by Wolf Richter --At every press conference following the FOMC monster-rate-hike meetings, Chair Powell discussed the tight labor market: The imbalance between high demand for labor and the tight supply of labor. And some of the data points he normally cites were released today. Two of the most important ones — job openings and layoffs — tightened further. The others remains very tight. This is based on what 21,000 businesses said about the number of job openings they have, the number of people they actually hired, the number of people they laid off, the number of people who quit, etc. Job openings rose by 437,000, to 10.7 million seasonally adjusted, up by 51% from September 2019. Not seasonally adjusted, they rose by 306,000 to 10.7 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job openings increased in all major sectors except wholesale trade, government (mostly education), and manufacturing. But even in manufacturing, the number of unfilled openings, though it dipped, remained huge – up by 84% from three years ago, just slightly less huge than before. Job openings had come down somewhat in the prior month, and there had been hopes that they would further track lower to show that the demand for labor might back off. But that didn’t happen, and instead, the number of unfilled jobs moved deeper into the astronomical zone. Layoffs & discharges fell from already low levels to even lower levels, near the record lows in late 2021. Employers reported that they laid off 1.33 million people in September, down from 1.49 million in August, and down by 33% from September 2019. Small scale layoffs, and most people were quickly rehired. There have been a lot of stories in the news about layoffs at famous or infamous companies, including at the most speculative ones that had gone public with enormous hype and hoopla via SPAC merger or IPO, and whose stocks then imploded. But they were mostly small-scale layoffs in the dozens or hundreds, and a few times a couple of thousand people. Among the big profitable companies, there were layoffs in some divisions, while other divisions still hired. This includes big tech. But it also includes companies like Ford, which has been implementing buyouts in its ICE division while hiring manically in its EV division. And most people that were laid off found new jobs quickly, given the still enormous number of job openings across most industries. Many people already had a new job lined up by the time they lost their old job. We see this confirmed by the actual number of people who filed for unemployment insurance with their state unemployment offices, which is reported weekly by the US Department of Labor. Last Thursday, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, at 217,000, was in the same low range where it had been all year and below nearly all prior lows. This confirms that most of the people who were laid off found a job so quickly or already had a new job lined up that they didn’t file for unemployment compensation. For the labor market to soften meaningfully, we would have to see the number of unemployment claims rise above the 300,000 mark
October Employment Report: 261 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, and the change for September was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 29,000 higher than previously reported. The first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, as of August, all of the jobs had returned and are now 804 thousand above pre-pandemic levels. I'll post this graph through the January 2023 report (includes the annual revision). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In October, the year-over-year change was 5.30 million jobs. Employment was up significantly year-over-year. Total payrolls increased by 261 thousand in October. Private payrolls increased by 233 thousand, and public payrolls increased 28 thousand. Payrolls for August and September were revised up 29 thousand, combined. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.2% in October, from 62.3% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.0% from 60.1% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased in October to 3.7% from 3.5% in September. This was above consensus expectations; and August and September payrolls were revised up by 29,000 combined.
October jobs report: late cycle deceleration and deterioration With the sharp increases in interest rates, and the complete stalling of real consumer spending measured YoY, since early this year I have expected employment to follow suit, decelerating over time to a stall. And the three month average in employment gains since February decelerated from over 500,000 to 372,000 through September. Because jobless claims, which have risen from their June lows, lead the unemployment rate, I have also expected that to stop declining, and indeed to rise a little.Both of those were borne out in today’s employment report for October. The three month average of job growth declined to 289,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 3.7%.Here’s my in depth synopsis.
- 261,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 233,000. Government jobs increased by 28,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report *delined* by -328,000 jobs. The above household number factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- U3 unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 3.7%.
- U6 underemployment rate rose 0.1% to 6.8%.
- Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, declined -117,000 to 5.717 million, compared with 4.996 million in February 2020.
- Those on temporary layoff increased 89,000 to 847,000.
- Permanent job losers rose 60,000 to 1,241,000.
- August was revised downward by -23,000, while September was revised upward by 52,000, for a net increase of 29,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was unchanged at 41.1 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs increased 32,000, and are at a level higher than before the pandemic.
- Construction jobs increased 1,000, also at a level higher than before the pandemic.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 2,400.
- Temporary jobs rose by 11,800. Since the beginning of the pandemic, over 300,000 such jobs have been gained.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less increased by 57,000 to 2,211,000, about 90,000 above its pre-pandemic level.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel rose $0.09 to $27.86, which is a 5.5% YoY gain, a further decline of -0.3% from last month and its 6.7% peak at the beginning of this year.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers increased 0.2% which is above its level just before the pandemic.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.4%, and is up 8.9% YoY. This metric has been decelerating nominally almost consistently for the past 16 months. Compared with inflation through September, it is up only 0.5% YoY (recessions typically start when it crosses zero).
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 35,000, but are still about -6.5% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments added 6,000 jobs, but are still -4.6% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Professional and business employment increased by 39,000, over 1,000,000 above its pre-pandemic peak.
- Full time jobs decreased -433,000 in the household report.
- Part time jobs increased 164,000 in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons declined -186,000 to 3,577,000.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate declined -0.1% to 62.2%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
SUMMARY: The establishment component of this report was decent, while the household component was poor, even recessionary.To start with the bad news, in the household report over 300,000 jobs were lost. Worse, the losses were in full time jobs, only made up partially by gains in part time jobs. Since this feeds into the unemployment and underemployment rates, both of those rose. Both the labor force participation rate and the employment to population ratio declined.By contrast, in absolute terms the household report was pretty good. There were widespread job gains, including in the leading sectors. That manufacturing jobs and hours held up was particularly good. In general the leading components of the report remained positive. Wage gains for non-supervisory workers remain strong, although they continue to decelerate on a YoY basis.I am particularly watching real aggregate payrolls as a recession marker. These probably remained positive, but I suspect they decelerated further, under 1% this month, but for that we’ll have to wait for the inflation report.All in all, a late cycle decelerating report, with a household component that may be a harbinger of worse to come.
U.S. workers have gotten way less productive. No one is sure why. - Employers across the country are worried that workers are getting less done — and there’s evidence they’re right to be spooked.In the first half of 2022, productivity — the measure of how much output in goods and services an employee can produce in an hour — plunged by the sharpest rate on record going back to 1947, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The productivity plunge is perplexing, because productivity took off to levels not seen in decades when the coronavirus forced an overnight switch to remote work, leading some economists to suggest that the pandemic might spark longer-term growth. It also raises new questions about the shift to hybrid schedules and remote work, as employees have made the case that flexibility helped them work more efficiently. And it comes at a time when “quiet quitting” — doing only what’s expected and no more — is resonating, especially with younger workers.Productivity is strong in manufacturing, but it’s down elsewhere in the private sector, according to Diego Comin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College. He noted that productivity is particularly tricky to gauge for knowledge workers, whose contributions aren’t as easy to measure.. “The data is very odd these past couple of quarters in so many different ways. It’s hard to even tell a coherent story.”Tech CEOs such as Google’s Sundar Pichai and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberghave been pledging to boost productivity, calling out low performers and asking their workers to do more. Meanwhile, Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella said his company coined the term “productivity paranoia” to describe employers’ anxieties about whether their employees are working hard enough.Leaders are under heightened pressure to boost employee performance as firms try to establish a post-pandemic normal, said Kathy Kacher, founder of Career/Life Alliance Services, who advises corporate executives.“The leaders are not seeing what they want, a nd they’re starting to get anxious,” Kacher said. Many employers have started using software to track employee activity. But Nadella has argued that the technology can have a deleterious effect on trust and employee engagement.
United pilots reject contract deal that 'fell short' - United Airlines pilots "overwhelmingly" rejected a tentative agreement that would have given them raises of about 15% over 18 months, their union said Tuesday, the latest setback in rocky labor talks between unions and airlines. The tentative agreement "fell short of the industry-leading contract United pilots have earned and deserve after leading the airline through the pandemic and back to profitability," the Air Line Pilots Association said. Close to 10,000 of United's roughly 14,000 pilots participated, with 94% voting against the agreement, the union said. Airlines and unions have struggled to reach agreements for new pilot contracts. Unions are seeking raises and better scheduling as airlines become profitable following a more than two-year Covid pandemic slump. Delta Air Lines pilots voted to authorize a potential strike if the airline and the union can't come to an agreement, their union said. United's union said it would organize informational pickets to encourage the company to resume talks. "Unfortunately, management has now taken a wait-and-see approach to negotiations instead of leading the industry forward," United's chapter of ALPA said in a statement. United, for its part, said Tuesday: "We are already working with ALPA on a new, industry-leading agreement that we expect to include improved pay rates and other enhancements."
Rock and pop musicians cancel fall tours out of pandemic-related concerns - Although the predicted fall surge of the pandemic is only beginning, many rock and pop musicians already have had to cancel concerts because of COVID-19 infections and related concerns. Because live performances represent a far bigger share of musicians’ income than royalties from online music streaming do, these cancellations can be a source of financial hardship. The artists are coming face to face with the fact that the current political setup can neither safeguard human health nor promote a flourishing culture. The most famous musician to be affected recently is Ringo Starr, the former Beatles drummer, who began a North American tour in September. On October 3, Starr announced that he had been diagnosed with COVID-19 and was canceling a week’s worth of dates. On October 10, he announced that he had tested negative and would resume the tour. Three days later, however, Starr tested positive again and decided to cancel the remainder of his tour. At age 82, the drummer is at high risk for severe outcomes of the virus, but the tour cancellation presumably will not cause him financial difficulties. Many musicians are far less fortunate. Animal Collective, an indie rock group whose music combines psychedelia and electronic influences, recently canceled their fall concert dates in the United Kingdom and Europe because of “touring obstacles related to COVID and the economy,” according to their post on Instagram. The band already had canceled shows during the past year after three of its members became infected with the coronavirus. They thus “lost large amounts of the income that sustains us and our families.” With notable frankness, the band wrote that they faced “an economic reality that simply doesn’t work and is not sustainable.” Citing inflation, currency devaluation and increased shipping and transportation costs, they concluded, “We simply could not make a budget for this tour that did not lose money even if everything went as well as it could. ... We are choosing not to take the risk to our mental and physical health with the economic reality of what that tour would have been.” With evident chagrin, the band apologized to its fans and asked for their understanding. Other musicians have been sidelined by Long COVID. Car Seat Headrest, a band known for its loose, introspective and moody style, recently canceled a West Coast tour and an appearance at When We Were Young Fest in Las Vegas because of singer–songwriter Will Toledo’s persistent symptoms. After his coronavirus infection, Toledo developed histamine intolerance, which, in his words, entails “heavy nausea, fatigue, dizziness and a buzzing nervous system.” This syndrome is a common presentation of Long COVID. “After another month of struggling to regain my health, I am currently forced to face the fact that my body lacks the basic levels of functionality necessary to leave the house most days, let alone embark on a tour,” Toledo tweeted.
Arizona federal judge rules that fascists have free speech right to intimidate voters at ballot drop boxes -On Friday Michael Liburdi, one of the roughly 90 right-wing district judges Donald Trump nominated from the ranks of the Federalist Society, ruled that fascist volunteers, some “camo clad” with body armor and other “tactical gear,” wearing masks and openly displaying firearms, have a First Amendment right to stake out Arizona ballot drop boxes, where they confront and record voters, and then publish information about people lawfully depositing ballots for the 2022 midterm elections. The ruling will undoubtedly encourage similar thuggish voter suppression conspiracies throughout the United States, especially in predominately minority areas within other so-called “swing states,” such as Pennsylvania and Georgia. An emergency appeal has already been filed in the Ninth Circuit, which includes Arizona and other Western states. A decision upholding or overturning the lower court ruling could be rendered at any time, as the election is only a week away. In the meantime Liburdi’s reactionary ruling remains in effect. The motion for an immediate injunction against the ballot drop box intimidation was filed by the Arizona Alliance for Retired Americans and Voto Latino, two organizations that represent Arizona voters. The defendants are Clean Elections, USA, and its principal Melody Jennings, and multiple as yet to be identified “John Does” whom Jennings coordinates at the drop boxes.
Why Illinois Is In Trouble – 132,188 Public Employees With $100,000+ Paychecks Cost Taxpayers $1 - So, just who is making all of this money? Meet the Illinois government employee $100,000 Club. It's comprised of 132,188 public employees and retirees who earned a new ‘minimum wage’ of $100,000 or more.While crime skyrockets in the neighborhoods, test scores plummet in the public schools, and inflation decimates private-sector paychecks, the Illinois public employee class is living the good life.Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com found nearly 500 educators in the public schools with salaries between $200,000 and $439,000. In small towns, city managers made up to $341,300. Three doctors at the University of Illinois at Chicago earned incomes between $1 million and $2.1 million.Barbers trimmed off $104,000 at State Corrections; janitors at the Chicago Transit Authority cleaned up $143,634; bus drivers in Chicago picked up $242,812; and suburban community college presidents made $418,677.Using our interactive mapping tool, quickly review (by employer ZIP code) the 132,188 public employees and retirees across Illinois making more than $100,000. Just click a pin (ZIP Code) and scroll down to see the results in your hometown rendered in the chart beneath the map.
Skyrocketing heating oil prices will leave some choosing between food, fuel and heat, Maine resident warns --Falling temperatures are forcing Americans to look for ways to keep their homes warm while staying on top of other necessities, a Maine resident warned on Monday. "A lot of us are asking the question, with these fuel prices right now, are we going to be able to fill our tanks? The other question is, what are we going to do for food?" Sherri Bukovskey told Carley Shimkus on "Fox & Friends First." The dental hygienist said, despite making a decent wage, she is feeling the pinch of making the decision between necessities, and she is far from alone. "I have had a few acquaintances tell me that they are choosing… food over medications, so all these inflated prices, it's definitely affecting us," she added. Bukovskey said, on top of the costs of grocery shopping and filling up her tank to travel to and from work, the housing crisis has stricken her family and forced her adult daughter to return home "[It] has hit us pretty hard up here in Maine. There are a lot of people without homes right now, and a lot of people are not able to afford the increases in the rent," she said.
Newsom rejects every California city's homelessness plan in stinging rebuke - — Gov. Gavin Newsom has issued a blanket rejection of local California governments’ plans to curb homelessness, putting on hold hundreds of millions of dollars in aid — a sharp rebuke to how cities and counties are tackling the metastasizing issue.“Californians demand accountability and results, not settling for the status quo,” Newsom said in a statement Thursday.The governor’s sweeping repudiation channeled profound public frustration with the prevalence of California’s homeless population. More than 113,000 people sleep outdoors on any given night in the state, according to state estimates. Encampments have become commonplace, spurring Democrats to move more aggressively on clearing people from public spaces.The visibility and scale of homelessness in California have exposed Newsom and other Democratic leaders to relentless criticism. Conservative media outlets regularly broadcast images of people living on the streets while portraying San Francisco and Los Angeles as failed cities.Newsom has budgeted billions of dollars to help local governments move people into permanent housing. But the governor said on Thursday that local plans to secure those funds fell woefully short, estimating they would collectively reduce homelessness by a mere 2 percent over four years. The governor informed mayors about his plans on Wednesday night and said he intended to convene local officials later this month.“At this pace, it would take decades to significantly curb homelessness in California — this approach is simply unacceptable. Everyone has to do better — cities, counties, and the state included,” he said.Big-city mayors pushed back on Newsom’s decision, arguing it came with little notice and undermined their efforts. Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf, whose city has previously clashed with Newsom over homelessness funding, said in a statement that she was “perplexed.” San Francisco Mayor London Breed accused Newsom of creating “more hoops for local governments to jump through without any clear explanation of what’s required.”“The State has decided to abruptly withhold funds that we have been planning around and that will actually make a difference in our communities — all without any warning or conversations or opportunities to address their concerns,” Breed said. “While we welcome accountability, now is not the time to delay funds that will help get people off the street.”
One in ten New York City public school students is homeless - Over the last year almost one in ten students in New York City lived in homeless shelters, doubled up with other families, lived in cars, abandoned buildings or outside, according to a new report by Advocates for Children of New York. This means that over 104,000 children were homeless, out of a total school enrollment of more than one million. This marks a 3 percent increase for the 2021-22 school year at a time when enrollment has dropped because of the COVID pandemic. The social blight of homelessness in New York City never paused during the last three years, although the increase in numbers slowed somewhat because of temporary rent moratoriums that the Democratic Party politicians were forced to implement in the early months of the pandemic. There are approximately 61,000 people living in city-run homeless shelters and another 3,000 living on the street. The official homeless figures, unlike those in the study cited here, do not count those families or individuals that have doubled up or are living in cars. The number of homeless in the United States is estimated at 552,830, one third of which are families. The worst-hit schools are in the poorest areas of the city. In District 24, which includes the Queens neighborhoods of Corona, Elmhurst, and Maspeth, for example, there was, according to the study, a 1.3 percent drop in enrollment and a 21.9 percent increase in students who had experienced some form of homelessness. That means that in District 24, about one out of eight students was homeless, a jump from a figure of one in ten from the year before. These neighborhoods have also had some of the highest fatality rates in the US from COVID-19 since the pandemic began in 2020. Other areas with significant increases in the number of homeless students were in the Bronx, the poorest urban county in the United States, where one in every seven students had experienced homelessness. The highest rates in the city were in the southwest Bronx District 9, where over one in five students was homeless in 2021–22. Upper Manhattan’s District 6, which includes Washington Heights and Inwood and Districts 23 (Brownsville) and 32 (Bushwick) in Brooklyn also had high rates. These figures do not include special education districts or the 6,000 migrant children that have come into the city in the last four months, expelled from the US-Mexican border by Republican Texas governor Greg Abbot. Many of these children and their families are escaping abominable living conditions in Venezuela and Central American countries. Homeless youth have suffered disproportionately from the effects of the pandemic because of lack of high-speed internet connections for remote learning in homeless shelters and from the inability to meet with counselors located in schools. The study also showed that 60 percent of homeless youth do not graduate high school in four years and are three times more likely to drop out than other students. Homeless children have a 64 percent chronic absentee rate, while that figure has climbed sharply for all students since the pandemic began to over 40 percent. A key factor in the growth of homelessness has been the lapsing of the moratorium on evictions. Democratic politicians from Biden to New York Governor Hochul permitted evictions to resume in January 2022, despite the high levels of joblessness and prevailing low wages for the poorest sections of the working class that, in real terms, are being pushed even lower by high inflation. Hundreds of thousands of workers now find themselves unable to pay months of back rent built up during lockdowns early on in the pandemic. As a result, the population of the city’s homeless shelter system increased by 25 percent from May to September to nearly 58,000. The shelter system is a concoction of 300 buildings mostly rented from private landlords and operated by dozens of nonprofit groups. Former Mayor Bill de Blasio’s promise to open 90 dedicated shelter buildings was never completed. The city has ended its use of 3,600 apartments in substandard shelter buildings, with only 1,200 of them converted into permanent housing for the homeless. The city, moreover, built or refurbished only 16,000 of the planned 25,000 affordable apartments between July 2021 and June 2022.
EPA Gives School Districts Across U.S. Nearly $1 Billion to Buy Clean School Buses - Stepping onto a yellow school bus for the first time is one of the most iconic rights-of-passage in a U.S. childhood. But it turns out these buses aren’t as wholesome as their bright color and rounded roofs suggest. In fact, most school buses run on diesel and, when children stand in their shadow, they are likely breathing in the most polluted air they will inhale during a day, as Nexus Media News pointed out. That’s part of the reason why theU.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is giving out almost $1 billion to help school districts in every state plus Washington, DC and several tribes and U.S. territories purchase more than 2,400 clean school buses, as the agency announced in a press release. The other reason, of course, is to give children a future less marred by the impacts of the climate crisis. “We are witnessing around our country and around the world the effects of extreme climate,” Vice President Kamala Harris said when she announced the grants in Seattle Wednesday with EPA Administrator Michael Regan, as AP News reported. “What we’re announcing today is a step forward in our nation’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gases, to invest in our economy… to invest in building the skills of America’s workforce. All with the goal of not only saving our children, but for them, saving our planet.″The funding for the new buses comes from the approximately $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill President Joe Biden signed nearly a year ago, as Nexus Media News reported at the time. The bill provided $5 billion for hybrid and electric buses to be distributed over a period of five years, according to a White House Fact Sheet. The first installment of these funds will go to purchase 2,463 buses and 95 percent of them will be electric vehicles.
The Right-Wing Mothers Fuelling the School-Board Wars - In August, 2020, Williamson County Schools, which serves more than forty thousand students in suburban Nashville, started using an English and Language Arts curriculum called Wit & Wisdom. The program, which is published by Great Minds, a company based in Washington, D.C., wasn’t a renegade choice: hundreds of school districts nationwide had adopted it. Great Minds’s promotional materials explain that Wit & Wisdom is designed to let students “read books they love while building knowledge of important topics” in literature, science, history, and art. By immersing students in “content-rich” topics that spark lively discussion, the curriculum prepares them to tackle more complicated texts. The materials are challenging by design: studies have shown that students read better sooner when confronted with complex sentences and advanced vocabulary. Wit & Wisdom’s hundred and eighteen “core” texts, which range from picture books to nonfiction, emphasize diversity, but not in a strident way. They provide “mirrors and windows,” allowing readers both to see themselves in the stories and to learn about other people’s lives. The curriculum assigns or recommends portraits of heralded pioneers: Leonardo da Vinci, Sacagawea, Clara Barton, Duke Ellington, Ada Lovelace. The lessons revolve around readings, augmented with paintings, poetry, speeches, interviews, films, and music: in the module “A Hero’s Journey,” students explore an illustrated retelling of the Odyssey alongside the Ramayana, a Sanskrit epic, while also discussing “Star Wars.” A section on “Wordplay” pairs “The Phantom Tollbooth” with Abbott and Costello’s “Who’s on First” routine.Elsewhere in Tennessee, teachers were saying that Wit & Wisdom improved literacy. The superintendent of Lauderdale County, a rural area where nearly a quarter of the population lives below the poverty line, published an essay reporting that his district’s teachers had noticed “an enormous difference in students’ writing” after implementing the curriculum. Wit & Wisdom encourages students to discuss readings with their families—a father in Sumner County, northeast of Nashville, was pleased that his daughters now talked about civil rights and the American Revolution at dinner.Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Wit & Wisdom became the target of intense criticism. Eric Welch, who was first elected to the school board in 2010, told me that the complainers “wouldn’t just e-mail us—they would copy the county commission, our state legislative delegation, and state representatives in other counties.” He said, “It was obviously an attempt to intimidate.” ”In May, 2021, as the district finished its first academic year with Wit & Wisdom, women wearing “Moms for Liberty” T-shirts began appearing at school-board meetings. They brought large placards that contained images and text from thirty-one books that they didn’t want students to read. In public comments and in written complaints, the women claimed that Wit & Wisdom was teaching children to hate themselves, one another, their families, and America. “Rap a Tap Tap,” an illustrated story about the vaudeville-era tap dancer Bill (Bojangles) Robinson, by the Caldecott medalists Leo and Diane Dillon, harped on “skin color differences.” A picture book about seahorses, which touched on everything from their ability to change color to the independent movement of their eyes, threatened to “normalize that males can get pregnant” by explaining that male seahorses give birth; the Moms suspected a covert endorsement of “gender fluidity.” Greco-Roman myths: nudity, cannibalism. (Venus emerges naked from the sea; Tantalus cooks his son.)The Moms kept attending school-board meetings and issuing complaints. Curiously, though they positioned themselves as traditionalists, they often borrowed “woke” rhetoric about the dangers of triggering vulnerable students. Readings about Ruby Bridges—who, in 1961, became the first Black child to attend an all-white school in New Orleans—exposed students to “psychological distress” because they described an angry white mob. (Bridges, in a memoir designed for young readers, wrote, “They yelled at me to go away.”) The Moms also declared that, though they admired Martin Luther King, Jr.,’s iconic line about judging others “on the content of their character,” the book “Martin Luther King, Jr. and the March on Washington” was unacceptable, because it contained historical photographs—segregated drinking fountains, firefighters blasting Black Americans with hoses—that might make kids feel bad. The Moms considered it divisive for Wit & Wisdom to urge instructors to remind students that racial slurs are “words people use to show disrespect and hatred towards people of different races.”
New study confirms: Structural racism in STEM programs needs fixing – EHN -A groundbreaking paper published last month in PNAS Nexus, a sibling journal to theProceedings of the National Academies of Science, offers stark quantitative data showing the continued blight of structural racism in academic STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) programs in the United States.Using a massive dataset of 110,000 students across six large research universities, the study found that white males are still more likely than other groups to earn STEM-related degrees even when they have a poorer academic record. Just as important, the study controlled for the high school preparation of students who intended to study STEM, assuming average grade points of 3.57 and ACT composite scores of 26 (placing students in the 83rdpercentile).The study offers some of the most stark evidence yet that even when students enter college with equal qualifications, white males are rewarded more richly for their grades in introductory courses while students from underrepresented populations are more severely punished.One of the study’s authors, Nate Brown, said that, given that the study had controlled for similar high school prep, he was “surprised and horrified” by how wide the gulf was between white and Black students after they went through their first-term collegiate STEM classes. The gulfs are so wide that co-researcher Chad Topaz said the findings should prod colleges to analyze how they teach, rather than continuing to blame disparities on individual deficiencies among Black, Latinx, Indigenous, and female students.Their study indicates that it is not the students, but the culture in core introductory STEM courses that is deficient.“Our study indicates that something is happening in the classes themselves,” Topaz said, “especially for students from already marginalized groups who receive a low grade in introductory courses. The system somehow treats them differently.”
OSU students protest university’s relationship with fossil fuels - WKBN.com – Outside a locked building holding the offices of Ohio State University’s top administrators, Isabella Guinigundo led the same chants, shouted the same demands on Friday that she’s been making for nearly two years: Ohio State needs to rethink its energy policies and priorities.More than 60 students joined Guinigundo and the Ohio Youth for Climate Justice in front of Bricker Hall on Ohio State’s campus Friday morning to protest what they said is the university’s failure to limit its climate impact. Protesters held signs reading “You’re killing us” and “RIP fossil fuels,” calling on the university to divest money from fossil fuel companies.Friday’s event was the latest in a years-long campaign the Ohio Youth for Climate Justice and climate justice advocates have waged on Ohio State’s campus. Until the university takes their demands seriously, Guinigundo said, it will be far from the last.“Until President [Kristina] Johnson and the Board of Trustees take action, we will continue to show up and intensify,” said Guinigundo, the communications director of Ohio Youth for Climate Justice and a third-year student in women’s, gender, and sexuality studies.Yousuf Munir, a second-year student in sociology and the education lead for the Ohio Youth for Climate Justice, asked protesters to think of the ways climate change has harmed global communities. As a Pakistani, he said his mind goes to the devastating floods that killed nearly 1,500 and displaced at least 30 million in Pakistan — floods that some climate scientists have said were exacerbated by climate change.“Really, it’s not their fault,” Munir said. “They’re not the ones emitting massive amounts of carbon. They’re not the ones over-producing. They’re not the ones killing the planet and killing the people who live on it. It’s not their fault, but they’re suffering the consequences of universities like ours.”Witnessing the global impacts of climate change, Guinigundo said, has made Ohio Youth for Climate Justice consider the wider-reaching impacts Ohio State has, primarily through its long-term investment portfolio.The Ohio Youth for Climate Justice claimed that Ohio State invests $15 million into fossil fuel companies, including Duke Energy and Energy Transfer Partners. When Ohio State was asked to confirm its investment amount, a spokesperson said Ohio State does not disclose specific investment funds, but clarified that it does not invest in individual stocks – it outsources to external capital managers.
Atlanta Medical Center closes, laying off hundreds and abandoning patients As of Tuesday, November 1, Wellstar Health System officially closed the Atlanta Medical Center (AMC), in Atlanta, Georgia, leaving tens of thousands without necessary health care and laying off hundreds of employees. This will be the first time in over a century that patients will not be able to seek treatment at the location. Wellstar’s decision to close AMC has left the city of Atlanta’s half million residents with only one Level 1 trauma center, at Grady Memorial Hospital. Level 1 trauma centers often deal with victims of vehicular accidents and other serious injuries and conditions. The decision to close the hospital is indicative of the crumbling infrastructure of the health care system in the US under conditions of growing public need. The company made the decision to close the medical center in August, citing declining revenue and the costs of staff and necessary medical supplies. Wellstar is choosing to prioritize profit over public health at a time when hospitals are facing a spike in pediatric patients suffering from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), as well as an expected surge of COVID-19 and influenza in the coming months. The closure also reflects a nationwide labor shortage amid inflationary pressures brought on by the coronavirus pandemic and the sapping of necessary funding for infrastructure as billions are poured into the US-NATO proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. Myriad industries are being affected as a result, including logistics, auto, mining, education and the railroads. However, the health care system is constantly under strain due to the criminal response of the government and corporations to the COVID-19 pandemic. Wellstar employed 1,742 full- and part-time employees at AMC. Approximately 1,450 of these employees have accepted jobs at other facilities operated by Wellstar, according to an AMC spokesperson’s email. Nearby Emory and Grady hospitals also hired staff from AMC.
TikTok perpetuates unhealthy diet culture among teens, young adults: study – TikTok helps perpetuate a toxic diet culture among teens and young adults and could contribute to disordered eating and body dissatisfaction in this user base, according to new research released Wednesday. The app is one of the most popular social media platforms among young Americans, with 67 percent of teens reporting using the platform in 2022. Study findings were published in the journal PLOS One and explored the content of food, nutrition and weight-related posts on the app. Researchers from the University of Vermont assessed 1,000 TikTok videos from 10 popular hashtags related to these topics, each with more than 1 billion views. Videos were then assessed for key themes, including the glorification of weight loss, positioning of food to achieve health and thinness and lack of expert voices providing nutrition information. Nutrition-related, weight-normative messaging, or the idea that weight is the most important measure of one’s health, was prominent among the posts, while the most popular videos glorified weight loss, according to the research. Less than 3 percent of videos were classified as weight-inclusive. Many posts also considered food as a means to achieve health and fitness. Expert voices that could dispel harmful information on the topics were largely absent from the online conversation, according to the study. “Each day, millions of teens and young adults are being fed content on TikTok that paints a very unrealistic and inaccurate picture of food, nutrition and health,” said study co-author Lizzy Pope in a release. Pope is an associate professor and director of the Didactic Program in Dietetics at the University of Vermont.
1 in 5 young Americans’ deaths attributed to excessive alcohol use -Alcohol accounts for 1 in 5 deaths in the United States among people between the ages of 20 to 49, according to new research. The study looked at alcohol poisoning, vehicle crashes and the long-term consequences of heavy drinking like alcoholic liver disease to reach its conclusions. Overall, 12.9 percent of all deaths per year among adults between the ages of 20 and 64 were due to excessive alcohol consumption, and excessive booze accounted for 20.3 percent of deaths among adults aged 20 to 49, according to the study. The study was led by Marrissa Esser, a health scientist at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. It was published earlier this week in JAMA Network Open. Esser and her team specifically looked at national and state mortality data from 2015 to 2019 and looked for deaths fully or partially linked to excessive drinking. The people behind the study said a reduction in alcohol-related deaths could be brought about by various policies, including increasing alcohol taxes and regulating the concentration of alcohol-selling businesses in an area. While the number of alcohol-related deaths varies by state, the study shows that excessive drinking is a leading and preventable cause of death across the United States. New Mexico had the highest rate of alcohol-related deaths out of all 50 states, with 21.7 percent of all deaths being somehow connected to booze, the study found. Meanwhile, the state with the lowest rate of deaths caused by excessive drinking during those four years was Mississippi, with an estimated 9.3 percent of all deaths believed to be linked to heavy alcohol use.
Playing With Fire- A Lab-Made Frankenstein COVID-19 Virus By Boston University - The creation of a new recombinant COVID-19 virus at Boston University, viewed as a “Frankenstein virus” by many, has raised a public uproar. This is not merely a risky gain-of-function experiment on “enhanced potential pandemic pathogens (ePPPs)”, it is a creation of an enhanced pandemic pathogen. NO “potential” here. What is the rationale for this statement? What is the chimeric virus that we talk about here? Specifically, they’ve swapped the S gene of the spike protein in the original SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan strain with the corresponding S gene from the Omicron variant. So, the lab-made Chimeric virus (Wuhan-Omi-S chimeric virus) has all the genes from the Wuhan strain, which is much more pathogenic than the Omicron strain, except the S gene, which is from the highly transmissible yet relatively mildly pathogenic Omicron strain. According to the preprint paper, the Omicron spike-bearing virus is able to effectively and robustly escape vaccine-induced humoral immunity just like the Omicron variant. In addition, unlike the naturally occurring Omicron variant, the Wuhan-Omi-S chimeric virus efficiently replicates in cell lines and primary-like distal lung cells. Furthermore, it has killed at least 80 percent of infected K18-hACE2 mice (a type of transgenic mice expressing human ACE2 receptors), whereas the mortality rate of the Omicron variant was zero while the Wuhan strain caused 100 percent death in two weeks in control experiments in the same transgenic mice. This 80 percent mortality in the mice model by the Wuhan-Omi-S chimeric virus was observed in a two-week period. The paper did not provide any further observations on whether the surviving 20 percent of mice eventually died faster than the control mice group infected with Omicron variants. The defenders for this risky study stated that the chimeric virus product showed reduced pathogenicity (100 versus 80 percent mortality) when compared to Wuhan strains, so it is not a gain-of-function study. However, this is an unjustifiably optimistic statement. The study did not provide any detailed or comprehensive pathology exam of different organs in the transgenic mice infected with the Wuhan-Omi-S virus. Rather than study individual gene motifs that might have influenced the Omicron variant’s pathogenicity, researchers at Boston University instead swapped all the pathogenicity-related viral gene motifs/sites from the Wuhan strain into the Omicron strain. Then, this study is a bonafide proven gain-of-function study: it makes the Omicron virus obtain more virulent factors, enhancing its infectivity and pathogenicity in in vitro and in vivo experiments. And this publication did not reveal any study to test the transmissibility of the chimeric lab-made virus in animal models. Is the Wuhan-Omi-S virus more or less transmissible in animal models? Can any of the researchers in this study 100 percent guarantee that this new chimeric virus is not more transmissible in different animal models, e.g. golden hamsters, ferrets, and primates? This study presented the main conclusion: “while the vaccine escape of Omicron is defined by 53 mutations in S, major determinants of viral pathogenicity reside outside of S.” However, it is a known fact that other genes outside S are involved in viral-host interactions at different steps of the viral life cycle and many genes outside S are relevant to viral pathogenicity in different tissues, organs, and animal hosts. So, by combining the pathogenicity-related components of the ancestral Wuhan strain and Omicron’s spike protein, the researchers would surely expect to create a virus that’s both highly deadly and highly transmissible. Even though it might be lucky that the final chimeric virus strains are less deadly and/or less transmissible than the Wuhan and/or Omicron strains, there is no guarantee that the degree of the risks or threats cannot be precisely controlled or assessed. The researchers at Boston University are intentionally playing with fire with clear knowledge of the risks involved. So, in essence, Boston University researchers created a lab-made Omicron variant with enhanced pathogenicity. As Omicron is a clear pandemic pathogen, taking over Delta and other COVID-19 virus variants, this study has created an enhanced pandemic pathogen. Not an “enhanced pandemic potential pathogen.”
Boston University study on Omicron variant smeared as dangerous gain-of-function research by right-wing reactionaries - Researchers investigating the SARS-CoV-2 virus conducted at Boston University’s (BU) National Emerging Infectious Disease Laboratories (NEIDL), one of the world’s safest facilities for work on deadly pathogens, recently released an important preprint study.The scientists, BU and the NEIDL have since come under vicious media attack by right-wing reactionaries and proponents of the fraudulent “Wuhan lab leak” theory. The conspiracy theorists have condemned the study as “gain-of-function” research, that is, an effort to increase the infectiousness or lethality of the virus, and cited it as further “proof” that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered at the direction of the Chinese Communist Party at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). The BU study involved adding an Omicron spike protein on to the backbone of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus to address why the Omicron subvariants are less virulent but more infectious. This is a very crucial question that has the potential for identifying new strategies for therapeutics and mechanisms for viral evolution, especially in light of the global catastrophe that has claimed the lives of more than 22 million people and countless more millions impacted by the chronic consequences of their infections. Rather than the work being examined on its merits, the situation has quickly deteriorated further as federal officials are now weighing in, demanding answers about why the BU researchers had not informed them about the study. The manuscript of the research report had cited support from grants provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH).Last week, a spokesman for the NIH told the media, “NIH is examining the matter to determine whether the research conducted [at BU] was subject to the NIH grants policy statement or met the criteria for review under the government’s guidelines for certain experiments with dangerous viruses.”A Boston University spokesman countered, “The research was reviewed and approved by the Institutional Biosafety Committee, which consists of scientists as well as local community members. The Boston Public Health Commission also approved the research. We fulfilled all required regulatory obligations and protocols. As BU researchers explained, “We set out to understand how the virus works, not identify new ways to make it more potent.” Nonetheless, the attacks on social media exploded last week after a right-wing British newspaper, the Daily Mail, wrote that the hybrid deadly virus killed 80 percent of the mice in the study. They avoided mentioning that these “humanized mice” are deliberately made very susceptible to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and 100 percent of the mice infected with the original strain, rather than the modified strain, had died.
Viral load of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 is lower than that of BA.2 despite the higher infectivity of BA.5 - Abstract: Sublineage BA.5 of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant rapidly spread and replaced BA.2 in July 2022 in Tokyo. A high viral load can be a possible cause of high transmissibility. Therefore, the copy numbers of SARS-CoV-2 in nasopharyngeal swab samples obtained from all patients visiting the hospital where this research was conducted were measured using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Viral genotypes were determined using PCR-based melting curve analysis. Next, whole-genome sequencing was performed using approximately one-fifth of the samples to verify the viral genotypes determined using PCR. Then, the copy numbers of the BA.1, BA.2, and BA.5 cases were compared. Contrary to expectations, the copy numbers of the BA.5 cases (median 4.7 × 104 copies/μL, n = 290) were significantly (p= 0.001) lower than those of BA.2 cases (median 1.1 × 105 copies/μL, n = 184). There was no significant difference between the BA.5 and BA.1 cases (median, 3.1 × 104copies/μL; n = 215). The results presented here suggest that the increased infectivity of BA.5 is not caused by higher viral loads, but presumably by other factors such as increased affinity to human cell receptors or immune escape due to its L452R mutation.
Evidence for Biological Age Acceleration and Telomere Shortening in COVID-19 Survivors -Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 infection determines the COVID-19 syndrome characterized, in the worst cases, by severe respiratory distress, pulmonary and cardiac fibrosis, inflammatory cytokine release, and immunosuppression. This condition has led to the death of about 2.15% of the total infected world population so far. Among survivors, the presence of the so-called persistent post-COVID-19 syndrome (PPCS) is a common finding. In COVID-19 survivors, PPCS presents one or more symptoms: fatigue, dyspnea, memory loss, sleep disorders, and difficulty concentrating. In this study, a cohort of 117 COVID-19 survivors (post-COVID-19) and 144 non-infected volunteers (COVID-19-free) was analyzed using pyrosequencing of defined CpG islands previously identified as suitable for biological age determination. The results show a consistent biological age increase in the post-COVID-19 population, determining a DeltaAge acceleration of 10.45 ± 7.29 years (+5.25 years above the range of normality) compared with 3.68 ± 8.17 years for the COVID-19-free population (p < 0.0001). A significant telomere shortening parallels this finding in the post-COVID-19 cohort compared with COVID-19-free subjects (p < 0.0001). Additionally, ACE2 expression was decreased in post-COVID-19 patients, compared with the COVID-19-free population, while DPP-4 did not change. In light of these observations, we hypothesize that some epigenetic alterations are associated with the post-COVID-19 condition, particularly in younger patients (< 60 years)
Protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 omicron BA.2.75* sublineage – Abstract: The BA.2.75* sublineage of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant escapes neutralizing antibodies. We estimated effectiveness of prior infection in preventing reinfection with BA.2.75* using a test-negative, case-control study design. Effectiveness of prior pre-omicron infection against BA.2.75* reinfection, irrespective of symptoms, was 6.0% (95% CI: 1.5-10.4%). Effectiveness of prior BA.1/BA.2 infection was 49.9% (95% CI: 47.6-52.1%) and of prior BA.4/BA.5 infection was 80.6% (95% CI: 71.2-87.0). Effectiveness of prior pre-omicron infection followed by BA.1/BA.2 infection against BA.2.75* reinfection was 56.4% (95% CI: 50.5-61.6). Effectiveness of prior pre-omicron infection followed by BA.4/BA.5 infection was 91.6% (95% CI: 65.1-98.0). Analyses stratified by time since prior infection indicated waning of protection since prior infection. Analyses stratified by vaccination status indicated that protection from prior infection is higher among those vaccinated, particularly among those who combined index-virus-type vaccination with a prior omicron infection. A combination of pre-omicron and omicron immunity is most protective against BA.2.75* reinfection. Viral immune evasion may have accelerated recently to overcome high immunity in the global population, thereby also accelerating waning of natural immunity.
Some healthcare workers vaccinated against COVID-19 show unexpectedly low responses to immunizations - A subset of healthcare workers vaccinated against COVID-19 had unexpectedly low responses to the immunizations, according to Cedars-Sinai investigators. The findings of the new study are published in iScience, a Cell Press journal.In a matched control study, investigators compared the vaccine responses among a group of Cedars-Sinai healthcare workers who were generally in good health. The study participants received the BNT162b2 vaccine produced by Pfizer Inc., and their average age was 48."It turns out that a small percentage of the healthcare worker population we studied did not have a robust response to the BNT162b2 vaccine. After vaccination, they produced lower levels of antibodies to the spike protein found on the surface of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. That low response persisted even after they received second and third booster doses," said Peter Chen, MD, who holds the Medallion Chair in Molecular Medicine at Cedars-Sinai and is one of the study's senior authors.Investigators noted that the "low responders" in the study were relatively young, but their immune systems reacted to the vaccine as if they were much older. The low responders had lymphocytes, white blood cells that are part of the immune system, with characteristics more typically observed in older people or individuals with chronic diseases. We know older people also tend to mount weaker responses to vaccines, so our data suggests this subset of healthcare workers could have immune cells that had prematurely aged and were therefore less responsive to vaccination."This study is part of the ongoing Coronavirus Risk Associations and Longitudinal Evaluation (CORALE) project led by Cedars-Sinai. Investigators say this study finding of a low vaccine response among otherwise healthy people requires further research."We would like to study the pathways that led to the premature aging phenotype to determine if it is specifically responsible for lower antibody levels after vaccination and then try and develop a therapeutic intervention to reverse this effect," "Also, our study did not evaluate the lymphocytes that are responsible for killing the cells that are already infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus; this is an important element of immunity against COVID-19,"
New research suggests booster dose of Novovax NVX-CoV2373 vaccine is effective against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants - A recent study posted to Research Square* preprint server evaluated the neutralizing antibody titers against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant and its sub-lineages after two and three doses of the Novavax protein nanoparticle vaccine NVX-CoV2373. […] The results indicated that two weeks after the second NVX-CoV2373 vaccine, the geometric mean titers (GMT) against the D614G strain were the highest at 1401. The neutralization titers showed an 8.1-fold decrease against the Beta variant with a GMT of 173. Against the Omicron BA.1 variant and the BA.4/BA.5 subvariants, the neutralization titers were 41- and 30-fold lower, with GMT values of 34 and 47, respectively. For Omicron BA.1, the neutralization titers for 79% of the samples were below the detection limit, as was the case for 59% of the samples against the BA.4/BA.5 subvariants.However, the neutralization titers were much higher against the Omicron BA.1 and BA.4/BA.5 subvariants when measured a month after the booster (third) dose of NVX-CoV2373 was administered.While the neutralization titers against the ancestral D614G strain increased to a GMT of 10862, the titers against Beta, Omicron BA.1, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 also increased to GMT values of 1733, 1197, and 582, showing increases that were 10-, 35-, and 12-fold, respectively. However, the titers against Beta, Omicron BA.1, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 were still six to 18-fold lower than that against the ancestral strain.In comparison, two doses of the adenoviral vector vaccine AD26.COV2.S elicited much lower neutralization titers than three doses of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine or the mRNA vaccine BNT162b22. The GMT values against Omicron BA.1 in individuals vaccinated with two doses of AD26.COV2.S were 10- and 14-fold lower than in those vaccinated with three doses of NVX-CoV2373 and BNT162b22, respectively. Against the BA.4/BA.5 subvariants, AD26.COV2.S elicited 11- and 12-fold lower neutralizing titers than those elicited by NVX-CoV2373 and BNT162b22, respectively.Furthermore, all plasma samples from individuals with three doses of the NVX-CoV2373 or BNT162b22 vaccine showed neutralizing action against Omicron BA.1, and BA.4/BA.5 subvariants, while only 13% to 50% of the plasma samples from individuals with two doses of AD26.COV2.S showed neutralizing activity against the Omicron subvariants.To summarize, in this study, a team of researchers from South Africa evaluated the neutralization titers elicited against the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain, the Beta and Omicron BA.1 variants, and the BA.4/BA.5 Omicron subvariants, in individuals vaccinated with three doses of the protein nanoparticle vaccine NVX-CoV2373. They also compared the neutralizing titers to those elicited by two doses of the AD26.COV2.S adenoviral vector vaccine or three doses of the BNT162b22 mRNA vaccine against Omicron BA.1 and BA.4/BA.5. The results indicated that while two doses of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine showed a significant reduction in neutralizing titers against Beta, Omicron BA.1, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5, as compared to the ancestral D614G strain, a third dose of the vaccine considerably increased the GMT values against all the variants tested. Three doses of the BNT162b22 vaccine showed comparable results, but two doses of AD26.COV2.S did not give adequate protection against the Omicron subvariants.
Do new Covid 'Scrabble' variants make omicron boosters pointless? Here's what experts say. - If you've received a new omicron-specific Covid booster, you're the most protected you possibly can be against the virus.But there's a new batch of so-called "Scrabble" variants circulating globally. While omicron's BA.5 subvariant still accounts for nearly 40% of U.S. Covid cases, strains like BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and BA.4.6 are rising each week, according to the latest Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.The new strains present an uncomfortable question: Are the new bivalent boosters still worth getting, or has the virus already outmaneuvered them?"A booster is a booster," Dr. Roy Gulick, chief of the division of infectious disease at Weill Cornell Medicine and New York-Presbyterian Hospital, tells CNBC Make It. "What about all these new Scrabble variants? The message remains the same: Get boosted, provoke your immune system to make a good response to the virus."The emerging strains are new enough that booster-shot-protection data doesn't yet exist for them. But experts still expect the shots to ramp up your immunity against all Covid variants, to some degree.Here's why, and what else you need to know.The new variants are descendants of omicron, which is a promising initial sign for the boosters."We have some hope, especially since this is all the same omicron. They're just multiple subvariants," says Dr. Rachael Lee, an associate professor in the division of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. "I'm hoping that that is enough to protect us through fall."Even though the Scrabble variants have found new ways to "cut through our immunity," they likely can't evade vaccine-induced protection entirely, says Dr. Deborah Fuller, a University of Washington School of Medicine microbiologist.When you get vaccinated, your body generates an alphabet soup of different virus-fighting antibodies, she explains. Some antibodies eventually become more dominant than others, and provide the majority of your body's protection.Those dominant antibodies become the target of new Covid mutations. But the omicron-specific boosters — or any Covid booster, for that matter — can help expand your "soup" and generate a greater concentration of antibodies, Fuller says.That can "restore a level of immunity and patch up the holes that some of these new Scrabble variants have found," she explains.No vaccine is ever 100% effective against infection. But ramping up other antibodies could help control the virus's ability to replicate, helping shorten the length of infections and protect against severe disease and hospitalization, Fuller says.
Study sheds new light on the risk of rare blood-clotting condition after covid-19 vaccination --A study published by The BMJ today sheds further light on the risk of developing a very rare blood-clotting condition known as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) after vaccination against the covid-19 virus. Based on health data from five European countries and the US, it shows a small increased risk of TTS after a first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, and a trend towards an increased risk after the Janssen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine, compared with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The researchers stress that this syndrome is very rare, but say these observed risks "should be considered when planning further immunization campaigns and future vaccine development."TTS occurs when a person has blood clots (thrombosis) as well as low blood platelet counts (thrombocytopenia). It's very rare and different from general clotting conditions likedeep vein thrombosis (DVT) or lung clots (pulmonary embolism). [..]Their findings are based on routinely collected health data for over 10 million adults in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the US who received at least one dose of a covid-19 vaccine (Oxford-AstraZeneca, Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna or Janssen/Johnson & Johnson) from December 2020 to mid-2021.Overall, 1.3 million first dose Oxford-AstraZeneca recipients were matched to 2.1 million Pfizer-BioNTech recipients from Germany and the UK.An additional, 762,517 people receiving Janssen/Johnson & Johnson were matched to 2.8 million receiving Pfizer-BioNTech in Germany, Spain, and the US, and all 628,164 Janssen/Johnson & Johnson recipients from the US were matched to 2.2 million Moderna recipients.A total of 862 thrombocytopenia events were found in the matched first dose Oxford-AstraZeneca recipients from Germany and the UK, and 520 events after a first dose of Pfizer-BioNTech.When the data were pooled together, analysis showed a 30% increased risk of thrombocytopenia after a first dose of Oxford-AstraZeneca compared with Pfizer-BioNTech - an absolute risk difference of 8.21 per 100,000 recipients.An increase in risk, albeit not statistically significant, of venous thrombosis with thrombocytopenia was observed after a first vaccine dose of Janssen/Johnson & Johnson compared with Pfizer-BioNTech. But the researchers say this finding needs to be replicated in other studies before any firm conclusions can be drawn.No differential risk of thrombocytopenia was seen after a second dose of Oxford-AstraZeneca compared with a second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech. Similarly, no increased risk of thrombocytopenia was noted after Janssen/Johnson & Johnson compared with a first dose of Pfizer-BioNTech.This is an observational study, and the researchers acknowledge that the rarity of the condition and incomplete vaccine records may have affected the results. What's more, they can't rule out the possibility that some of the observed risk may have been due to other unmeasured (confounding) factors.However, this was a well-designed study that allowed comparison of available vaccines with each other, rather than with no vaccination, and the results were consistent after additional analyses, suggesting that they withstand scrutiny.
Uptick in COVID-Related Blood Clots: Is It Real? - Since the beginning of the year when Omicron took hold in the U.S., physicians across the country have reported seeing fewer instances of blood clotting linked to COVID-19. However, recent social media postings from members of the medical community in the U.K. -- which has served as a harbinger for what's to come in the U.S. throughout the pandemic -- have raised the possibility of a reversal of this trend. Last week, Graham Lloyd-Jones, MBBS, MRCP, a radiologist with the Salisbury NHS Foundation Trust in the U.K., wrote the following on Twitter, sparking an extended thread from other healthcare professionals: "To all #radiologists. Have you seen the typical #COVID pulmonary vasculopathy on CXR/CT in the last week? We've not seen this since omicron became dominant Feb '22. I'm concerned we have a new variant which causes the same clotting in the lungs as delta/pre-delta." Responses to the post were mixed, with some saying that they had once again seen serious lung involvement with recent COVID cases and others saying they hadn't yet observed what Lloyd-Jones had alluded to. Even more responded with general concern and questions. In an October 7 report, the U.K. Health Security Agency detailed that there were indeed a number of new variants that had begun to circulate in recent weeks. "The development of these additional lineages has been rapid," the report read. "They have varying Omicron backbones but some convergent receptor-binding domain (RBD) mutations ... which are likely to produce a degree of escape from current immunity in the U.K." Specifically, the report noted BQ.X, BA.2.75.2, and BF.7 as the most concerning variants for the U.K. in terms of both growth and neutralization data. However, the report also mentioned BQ.1.1, which has been reported in about 20 countries and in dozens of U.K. samples, and several other variants in other parts of the world, as part of its horizon scanning. Even with new variants emerging, though, it appears that many radiologists in the U.K. and the U.S. have not yet observed any recent uptick in COVID-related blood clots. A spokesperson for the Royal College of Radiologists in the U.K. declined to comment on behalf of its officers.
Identifying trends in SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater to infer changing COVID-19 incidence: Effect of sampling frequency – Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater solids and liquids are correlated with reported incident COVID-19 cases. Reporting of incident COVID-19 cases has changed dramatically with the availability of at-home antigen tests. Wastewater monitoring therefore represents an objective tool for continued monitoring of COVID-19 occurrence. One important use case for wastewater data is identifying when there are sustained changes or trends in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations. Such information can be used to inform public health messaging, testing, and vaccine resources. However, there is limited research on best approaches for identifying trends in wastewater monitoring data. To fill this knowledge gap, we applied three trend analysis methods (relative strength index (RSI), percent change (PC), Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test) to daily measurements of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater solids from a wastewater treatment plant to characterize trends. Because daily measurements are not common for wastewater monitoring programs, we also conducted a downsampling analysis to determine the minimum sampling frequency necessary to capture the trends identified using the gold standard daily data. The PC and MK trend test appear to perform similarly and better than the RSI in terms of early warning signaling for increasing and decreasing trends, so we only considered the PC and MK trend test methods in the downsampling analysis. Using an acceptable sensitivity and specificity cutoff of 0.5, we found that a minimum of 4 samples/week and 5 samples/week is necessary to detect trends identified by daily sampling using the PC and MK trend test method, respectively. If a higher sensitivity and specificity is needed, then more samples per week would be needed. Public health officials can adopt these trend analysis approaches and sampling frequency recommendations to wastewater monitoring programs aimed at providing information on how incident COVID-19 cases are changing in the contributing communities.
New Covid variants are circulating. What do we know and will the Omicron-specific booster be effective? -Despite driving an increase in cases, the World Health Organization (WHO) says XBB and BQ.1 are not different enough from each other, or from other Omicron lineages, to warrant labelling them new variants of concern. Variants of concern are those that show increased transmissibility, virulence or change in clinical disease, and a decreased effectiveness of public health and social measures. XBB and BQ.1 are subvariants of Omicron, which continues to be a variant of concern. Examining global data available to date, WHO said there is early evidence that there is a higher risk of Covid-19 reinfection from XBB and BQ.1 compared to other circulating Omicron subvariants. However, cases of reinfection appear to be largely occurring in those previously infected with pre-Omicron strains, such as Delta, WHO says. The Victorian department of health says the ability of XBB and BQ.1 to escape immunity from past infection, combined with waning immunity from past vaccination, are driving rises in cases overseas. It is why remaining up to date with booster shots is critical. In October, the health minister, Mark Butler, expressed concern that there were still “several million people” who, more than six months since having their second vaccine shot, have not received their third. Boosters and current antivirals such as Paxlovid appear to work well against the new variants. So while the variants may trigger a new wave of infections, for most people, it appears these infections will not be severe. There is no suggestion that fifth doses will be needed for the general population in light of the new variants. In September, the first bivalent Covid-19 vaccine was approved for use in Australia, targeting two different Covid-19 viruses: the original 2020 strain and Omicron variant BA.1. It is commonly referred to as the Moderna bivalent vaccine, and in Australia it has been available to people aged 18 and over as a third or fourth dose since 10 October. A second bivalent vaccine, the Pfizer bivalent vaccine, was provisionally approved by drug regulator the TGA in October. But the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (Atagi) is yet to advise on how the Pfizer bivalent vaccine should be rolled out and used, and it is not yet available. Atagi considers receiving all recommended booster doses to be a more important factor than which variant is targeted by those doses. This is because even if the variant targeted by a vaccine does not necessarily “match” the circulating variants, the available vaccines all induce a broad immune response that protects against the circulating variants. Atagi have made no changes to the current booster recommendations and is not advising any extra booster doses beyond the fourth dose in selected populations. Booster doses should be given at least three months after the most recent Covid-19 vaccine dose or a Covid-19 infection.
Studies indicate that new Omicron subvariants could cause devastating COVID-19 surge in US - Over the past month, the United States has seen a steady rise in the prevalence of the dangerous new immune-evading Omicron subvariants of SARS-CoV-2, threatening yet another surge of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks, and potentially millions more cases of Long COVID. On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revealed that the highly immune-evasive BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants increased in prevalence from 11 percent to more than 27 percent in just two weeks, or a doubling time of 10 days. By mid-November, these two subvariants will likely be dominant across the country. The anticipated COVID-19 surge will take place amid a flood of pediatric hospitalizations across the country for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and an unusually harsh beginning to the influenza season. The simultaneous surge of these three respiratory airborne pathogens will severely impact health care systems during the winter months, under conditions in which the industry is already on the verge of collapse three years into the COVID-19 pandemic. While so far the crisis in children’s hospitals has been most acute, the elderly are particularly predisposed to complications with RSV and flu due to declines in their immunity. Among those 65 years and older, RSV leads to 177,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths annually. The typical flu season causes upwards of 16,000 deaths among adults. However, a severe flu season can be far worse. In 2017-18, the US experienced 41 million flu-related illnesses, 19 million flu-related medical visits, 710,000 flu-related hospitalizations and 52,000 deaths. Data from the CDC for the first four weeks of October shows that outpatient medical visits for flu-like symptoms are two to three times higher than the five-year average baseline. The exact magnitude of the next surge of COVID-19 is impossible to predict, but a number of recent studies indicate that it could potentially be the third catastrophic winter of the pandemic. First, a preprint study by Dr. Yunlong Richard Cao and his team at Biomedical Pioneering Innovation Center at Peking University, first released last month and updated regularly since then, found that the new Omicron subvariants render ineffective the monoclonal antibody drugs Evusheld and Bebtelovimab. The 9 million immunocompromised Americans eligible for these previously life-saving drugs will now have virtually no added protection against COVID-19. Furthermore, the same study demonstrated that immunity induced from currently existing vaccines will barely stand a chance in protecting against infection with the latest variants. The researchers procured antibodies from individuals previously vaccinated three times with the Sinovac vaccine who were subsequently infected with the Omicron BA.1 subvariant last winter and tested their serum against the new Omicron subvariants. Roughly 7.5 months after the individuals were infected with BA.1, their antibodies were almost entirely unable to neutralize the BQ.1.1 and XBB subvariants. Even individuals infected with BA.5 this summer showed a similar lack of protection against the new subvariants.
New Omicron Variants Are Here--What We Know So Far - Scientific American - The Omicron family of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, has some new menacing members. At the end of the week ending October 29, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that two variants—BQ.1 and BQ.1.1—account for nearly 17 percent of viral samples genetically sequenced in the country. That was a huge increase over a month earlier when the variants were practically invisible in the data and suggests they will soon outcompete BA.5 and BA.4.6, the dominant strains in the United States. Meanwhile, a variant called XBB has been causing a substantial infection wave in Southeast Asia. The three new variants are likely spreading so quickly because they sneak past some of the immune defenses acquired through previous infections and vaccinations. They also threaten to render monoclonal antibody treatments ineffective. These features warrant attention—especially as the country heads into the fall and winter—but not panic. Scientists suspect that the COVID vaccines will continue to protect against hospitalization and death. And Paxlovid, an oral antiviral pill, is also expected to remain effective. The mixed news means that the variants “have the ability to create a wave, but it’s not going to be a tsunami,” Omicron first emerged near the end of last year. The initial version known as BA.1 (previously known as B.1.1.539) overtook the Delta variant and caused more than 800,000 U.S. cases per day during its January peak. But BA.1 was just the first in a long line of Omicron subvariants. BA.2 took over from BA.1 and caused a surge in the spring. BA.5 edged out BA.2 and caused a surge in the summer. And now it looks like BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB—or some combination—will cause a surge this fall and winter. For the record: BQ.1.1 is the same as BQ.1 but with an additional mutation. So many scientists think the race will occur between BQ.1 or BQ.1.1 and XBB. But just how that race plays out—and whether it will cause a surge—depends on three essential metrics: how quickly these variants spread; if they cause more severe disease; and if they can circumvent our immune protection or evade immune-focused treatments. There is no question these variants are increasing at a rapid rate. BQ.1.1, for example, currently accounts for 7,000 cases per day and appears to be doubling every nine days, says Trevor Bedford, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center who models COVID evolution. It is outpacing BA.5—the current leading variant in the U.S. That’s because every person sick with BQ.1.1 is infecting an average of 1.4 other people, while those sick with BA.5 are averaging an infection of less than one other person. This so-called reproduction number can be telling. When BA.1 first arose, for example, it had a whopping reproduction number of 3. And when BA.5 first arose, it had a reproduction number of 1.6—roughly akin to that for BQ.1.1 and XBB. Barring the appearance of a totally new variant, the U.S. will likely see a wave similar to BA.5’s surge earlier this summer, but nothing on the scale of the Omicron surge last winter, Bedford says. And while it is too soon to tell whether BQ.1.1 or XBB will drive a larger fraction of infections, he predicts two likely scenarios: either BQ.1.1 hits first and suppresses the circulation of XBB (which has already been detected in the U.S. but is not yet widely circulating), or they cause two simultaneous waves. Depending on what comes into play, Bedford predicts the U.S. will see 100,000 to 200,000 COVID cases per day—much higher than today’s average of fewer than 40,000 cases per day. But how the number of cases will translate to hospitalizations and deaths is a big question. BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and XBB all carry mutations in the spike protein—the studs on the pathogen’s surface that it uses to recognize and infect cells. These mutations make it harder for the immune system to recognize the virus and kick into action early. Indeed, a few preliminary studies (neither of which have been peer-reviewed) have shown that antibodies from vaccination and earlier infections are less able to block infection from these new variants in a lab dish. That sounds scary, but our immune response includes additional levels of defense beyond antibodies, such as T cells and B cells. “These laboratory tests give us a really powerful and important data point—but they don't tell the whole story,” says Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health. So while the likelihood of reinfections will increase with the new subvariants, it will not necessarily drive more severe disease.
These 'Nightmare' COVID-19 Variant Symptoms Are Shared With New Omicron Subvariants - More evidence is mounting that a new group of Omicron subvariants — primarilythe XBB variant, a dynamic mutation that is a blend of earlier Omicron offshoots, as well as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 — may likely trigger a wave of seriousbreakthrough COVID-19 cases across the nation this winter.Officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say that the XBB variant isn't fueling a rapid spread of COVID-19 currently, but data sourced from international agencies in Asia suggests that it's proving to be the most immune-evasive form of SARS-CoV-2 scientists have seen since the pandemic began. Health officials are now attempting to closely track the spread of this particular variant among domestic communities after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that XBB has been recorded in 26 different countries so far; researchers in Singapore have well documented how the XBB variant quickly overtook BA.5 as the most dominant strain in just a few weeks.That's why XBB has earned the moniker of the "nightmare" variant, as officials and local experts alike are thinking ahead of the potential reality of another COVID-19 wave here in the United States — similar to the initial Omicron outbreak recorded over the 2021 holiday season.But healthcare experts in the United States say there isn't enough data currently to discern just how viral the strain is compared to other newly established Omicron variants or viruses from earlier in the pandemic. Questions linger about the ability of the XBB variant to evade vaccines, including recently administered boosters, and what kinds of sicknesses it may prompt this winter, explainsRichard Martinello, M.D., the medical director of infection prevention at Yale New Haven Health System."One question is how readily it is transmitted between persons. Another is how it may be able to escape immunity, people's natural immunity or perhaps immunity against vaccines," says Dr. Martinello. "Because with the mutations we see in this strain, we're just concerned it may be able to escape or push through the immunity we already have — if that does prove to be true, that gives further evidence to suggest that, just like the flu vaccine, we may need periodic updates to our COVID vaccinations."Having first been confirmed in India over the summer, scientists know that the XBB variant is a combination of earlier Omicron subvariants — BA.2, in particular, says Shira Doron, M.D., infectious disease physician and epidemiologist at Boston's Tufts Medical Center. Additionally, a forthcoming study in Chinasuggests that XBB strains are "the most antibody-evasive strain tested, far exceeding BA.5" and indicates that researchers believe that earned immunity wouldn't provide the same level of protection granted against previous versions of the virus."XBB doesn't appear to be more virulent or lethal at this time," Dr. Doron tellsGood Housekeeping. "It has a 'growth advantage' over strains that were circulating in Singapore [in October], likely due to either increased contagiousness, increased ability to evade immunity due to mutations, or a combination of the two."A heightened reason for concern over the XBB variant, in particular, is that its unique spike gene structure may be best poised to evade immunity granted by vaccines, Dr. Martinello adds. The same concerns exist for the effectiveness of monoclonal antibody treatments, including drugs like Evusheld that are given toat-risk, immunocompromised Americans who rely on extra protection to avoid infection. More research will be required to determine the severity of disease caused by XBB infections — both for those who have recently recovered from a COVID-19 illness and those who are up-to-date on vaccinations. For now, experts like Dr. Martinello say officials are modeling potential outcomes based on earlier Omicron subvariants.
COVID ‘Nightmare’ Variant XBB Is Likely Here in Mass., Experts Say – Boston doctors are "almost certain" that XBB, the so-called “nightmare” COVID-19 variant, is already circulating in Massachusetts. The new strain, a descendent of omicron variant BA.2, has been spreading rapidly in parts of the world, including Singapore. Dubbed the "nightmare variant," it is extremely immune evasive and has also shown that it might be immune to current vaccines. Tufts Medical Center Hospital Epidemiologist Dr. Shira Doron and Boston Medical Center's Dr. David Hamer explained whether people should worry and discussed their concerns around antibodies and the bivalent vaccine during NBC10 Boston's weekly "COVID Q&A" series. "There is a reasonable chance that XBB is already in Massachusetts, since it has been reported in New York," Hamer said. "Since we are sequencing fewer samples than before, it may take longer to identify." "Agree! I feel almost certain it is here," Doron said. XBB was first detected in the U.S. on Sept. 15. Over a dozen cases have been reported, mostly in New York, according to Fortune. But just because the variant has been making headlines for its role in a recent wave of COVID cases in Singapore, doesn't mean that will necessarily happen in the U.S., experts say. "It's always been true, but it is especially true these days -- you can't use what happens in another country as a definite predictor of what's going to happen in a different country," Doron said. "You should use it to prepare." Cases of RSV have been on the rise, overwhelming pediatric hospitals in parts of the country. The flu and COVID are also a seasonal threat. Two major concerns among the local doctors, though, is whether the new variant can evade treatment from monoclonal antibodies and render the new bivalent vaccines ineffective. "It has more mutations in the receptor-binding domain, so it's better able to evade immunity from some of the other omicron subvariants. So both the booster but also natural infection may not protect as well against this. So that gives it a fitness advantage," Hamer said. "But, you know, let's see what happens."
Put Your Masks On Again, Please - I’ve been hunkered down the past two weeks in what we’ve begun calling The Covid Cottage, tending the now-familiar symptoms that seem reluctant to abandon their temporary (I hope) tenancy. The cottage acquired its name on account of having become sort of a hostel for the sick, my 8-year-old great-niece included. When she tested positive at camp last summer, she and her mother quarantined here until she was allowed to return. It’s not exactly Walden Pond, but it’ll do. Unlike Thoreau, I didn’t build it with my own two hands. Far as I can tell, roaches did. Only they know all the secret places within. Surrounded by woods, the cottage is accessed by dirt road and a wooden bridge. Though less remote than it sounds, the area’s home to countless deer, rafts of geese, several hawks and at least one or two quite vocal owls, in addition to the usual backyard inhabitants. We probably have foxes and coyotes, too, but they’re too smart to be seen. No telling what passes in the night, but morning reveals tracks of varying sizes and sorts that keep me mindful of why I tend to stay indoors once darkness settles so deep and black, only bats can see. Maybe nothing’s out there. Maybe everything is. But I’ll tell you what’s everywhere — covid-19, and it smells your fear. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise, and don’t deceive yourself into thinking we’re all done with it. We’re not by a long shot. Despite our best efforts to thwart the virus that leads to covid — and despite my own adherence to best practices — it got me again. That’s two vaccinations, two boosters, and now, two covids — appropriate for a Libra, I suppose. This isn’t to suggest that one shouldn’t get the shot and booster. I’m confident that my suffering would have been far greater had I not taken these precautions. The bear of it is that the newest omicron variant doesn’t care. The honey badger of infectious diseases, it will find a way to find you and gobble you up, if you’re not careful. It also likes to linger, and its victims tend to test positive for longer periods, which translates into longer quarantines. I will say that this time was worse than the previous round, even if experts say this newest version is supposedly “mild.” Compared with what? Well, smallpox, I’d reckon. I felt very sick for about four days, then slowly better. Also, I’m still testing positive 10 days after symptoms began. The virus is getting smarter with each new turn, and our bodies and medicines are slow to keep up. What does this mean? Nobody wants to say this, but I think it means masks are back in order in public spaces and especially in crowded areas. My contagion point was probably a packed art gallery I visited on Saturday, Oct. 15. By Monday night, I had a sore throat; by Tuesday morning, I felt like a plank — immovable with aches, fever, a headache that lasted a week and all the rest. Today is Oct. 28, and I’m still positive, slightly stuffy, and wondering how much longer before the next variation swings through and isn’t so mild. If I were you, I’d mask up and get all the shots.
US Reports 68K Covid Cases, 573 Deaths - With 68994 new cases of coronavirus infection reporting on Thursday, the total U.S. Covid cases reached 97,692,919. 573 Covid deaths were reported the same day, taking the total number of people losing their lives due to coronavirus infection in the country to 1,072,245, as per Johns Hopkins University's latest data. Covid positive cases increased by 6 percent while deaths decresed by 6 percent in the last fortnight, according to the New York Times. U.S. hospitals reported a 2 percent increase in the number of Covid patients in the last two weeks. The number of I.C.U. admissions due to the worse stage of the viral disease increased by 2 percent. 27,415 people are hospitalized due to Covid. 3,168 of these patients are admitted in intensive care units. The nation's test positivity rate has increased to 8.9 percent. As per the latest data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 227,377,753 Americans, or 68.5 percent of the eligible population, have been administered both doses of Covid vaccine so far. This includes 93.4 percent of people above 65. 8.4 percent of the eligible population, or 26,290,124 people, have already received bivalent COVID-19 vaccines. The bivalent vaccines include a component of the original virus strain to provide broad protection against the diseases and a component of the omicron variant to provide better protection against Covid caused by the omicron variant. 2875 additional deaths were reported globally on Thursday, taking the total number of people who lost their lives due to the pandemic so far to 6,598,197.
COVID variants BQ.1/BQ.1.1 make up 35% of U.S. cases (Reuters) -The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday estimated that Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 accounted for about 35% of coronavirus cases in the country in the week ending Nov.5 compared with 23.2% in the previous week. The subvariants made up nearly 9% of total cases in the week of Oct. 15 and their proportion has been rising steadily among circulating cases since then. The two variants are descendants of Omicron's BA.5 subvariant and have been spreading rapidly in Europe. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has said they were likely to become the dominant variants shortly and drive up cases in the next few weeks and months. There is no evidence yet that BQ.1 is linked with increased severity compared to the circulating Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5, the European agency said, but warned it may evade some immune protection, citing laboratory studies in Asia. New variants are monitored closely by regulators and vaccine manufacturers in case they start to evade protection offered by current shots. U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Friday that Eli Lilly's experimental COVID drug, bebtelovimab, was not expected to neutralize these Omicron subvariants. BQ.1.1 made up nearly 19% of circulating variants and BQ.1 was estimated to make up 16.5% of circulating cases in the week of Nov. 5, the U.S. CDC said on Friday. The figure for the previous week was updated from 27.1% earlier. The BA.5 subvariant, which drove up cases earlier this year, is estimated to make up about 39% of cases, compared with nearly 51% in the week ended Oct. 29. Coronavirus cases saw a small uptick for the week ended Nov. 2, data from CDC showed. This comes after a gradual decline in reported cases from July highs.
Europe’s governments prepare third winter of mass COVID-19 infection, death --Contrary to the propaganda of the European political establishment and the corporate media the COVID-19 pandemic is not over. Thousands of people continue to die each week across Europe from the virus and a new winter surge, alongside other respiratory illnesses and increasing poverty, will lead to hundreds of thousands more excess deaths on the continent. Another winter of mass infection and death from COVID-19 is primarily a product of the European ruling class’s decision to allow the virus to freely spread through the population. With a “vaccine only” strategy and the near-total abandonment of even minimal measures to contain the spread of the virus, epidemiologists are warning of the deadly impact of two new vaccine resistant variants this winter. In Europe over the past two weeks cases have fallen slightly as the eighth wave of the virus slowly subsides. In the last seven days there were just over 1 million cases throughout Europe, compared to 1.5 million in the week before. There were 4,216 deaths in the last week, compared to 5,449 the week before. However, scientists are warning that the rapid spread of immunity-evading new variants in Europe will lead to a massive surge of the virus on the scale of the Omicron wave last winter. Omicron was first detected in Europe on November 19, 2021, and the original variant and its offshoots have caused the majority of over 600,000 European COVID-19 deaths since. On Friday, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) warned of the spread of the BQ.1.1 variant, which has immune escape from BA.5-targeted antibodies. The BA.5 and BA.4 drove the summer waves of COVID-19 throughout Europe. BQ.1.1 is already dominant in France and accounts for more than 40 percent of infections in the UK. The ECDC predicts that it will be dominant across the continent in mid-November. This is also when new bivalent vaccines protecting against BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 are scheduled to hit the European market. The effectiveness of these bivalent vaccines and their older counterparts against BQ.1 will be reduced, although it is not yet known to what extent. In a press conference on October 26, Marco Cavaleri, the head of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) vaccine strategy, stated that the EMA is also tracking the progress of the XBB variant in Europe. Due to its high number of protein spike mutations, it has been dubbed “the nightmare variant,” and is currently driving surges in Singapore and India. Early studies of XBB show significant immune escape from vaccines and the nullification of anti-viral treatments. A pre-print study from a lab in China describes the variant as, “the most antibody-evasive strain tested, far exceeding BA.5.” It is possible that the vaccine resistant BQ1.1 and XBB variants will drive back-to-back or simultaneous waves. Cornelius Roemer, a computational biologist at the University of Basel in Switzerland, told Naturemagazine, “If it turns out that XBB is going to dominate globally in the end, we might see some sort of double wave in Europe and North America.” It is also likely that the two variants are so genetically distinct that infection-based immunity conferred by BQ1.1 will be evaded by XBB and vice versa. Meanwhile, the level of vaccine conferred immunity is also waning amongst the European population. New vaccine doses are being taken up at a much slower rate than previously and the level of immunity gained from previous doses is continuously decreasing. These factors will significantly increase the number of infections and deaths over the winter.
Six things to know about the new XBB COVID variant - Public health experts are warning a new COVID-19 wave is about to break in Australia as more recent strains of the virus including XBB take hold. Singapore is coming off the crest of its XBB wave, heath authorities say. Here’s what you should know. First, if you’ve managed to dodge COVID-19 so far, your luck may have run out. The XBB sub-variant is a singularly successful escape artist. The combination of two strains of the omicron variant has at least seven mutations along the spike of the virus, which makes it harder for antibodies made by vaccines to recognise and repel it. It’s more “immune evasive” than previous strains. Masks are still common in Singapore and mandatory on public transport, but XBB has still spread fast. The good news is that vaccines, even those not designed with omicron in mind, are still effective in preventing serious illness from an XBB infection. The bad news is you still get sick.Second, if you had COVID-19 before omicron, you could be in for another bout. The World Health Organisation notes there is early evidence pointing at a higher reinfection risk from XBB, “as compared to other circulating omicron sublineages”.Third, there is no soldiering on - or at least there shouldn’t be. This is one of the most infectious strains yet. Masks are still common in Singapore and mandatory on public transport, but XBB still spread fast. In the last month, there’s been a hot mess of rescheduling going on as people test positive and then fade from view for a week or two. It’s as common as a holiday but a lot less enjoyable.So, you really should isolate (which is actually not too much of a problem given it’s hard to lift yourself off the couch for the first week or so).On Friday Singapore’s Ministry of Health announced the XBB wave is “subsiding”. Still, it’s going to distribute another round of rapid test kits free of charge to all households. The idea is that you find out fast if you’re positive, and then resign yourself to staying inside for a week or so. Fourth, it lurks. When I went to see my GP three weeks after I first tested positive to get antibiotics for an eye infection, he told me secondary infections were very common. Fifth, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines formulated with the older, BA.5 sub-variant of Omicron do seem to work pretty well against XBB - so if you’re due a booster, see if you can get one of those.Finally, the natural immunity gained following infection is likely to last for at least a few months. So if you do get caught up in the next spate of infections, XBB will hopefully be done with you before it has time to ruin your Christmas or your January break and give you a good run into 2023.
New Covid-19 wave to hit NSW within weeks, chief health officer says --A new wave of Covid-19 infections is looming in New South Wales, the state’s chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, has warned, with transmission of the virus predicted to increase in coming weeks.It follows Victoria’s chief health officer, Prof Brett Sutton, making a similar announcement last week, with Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and XBB tipped to overtake BA.5 as the dominant variants throughout Australia.“We are starting to see an increase of Covid-19 cases and changes in the variants circulating in NSW, which tells us we are entering the next Covid wave,” Chant said on Thursday in a video on the NSW Health Facebook page.“By looking at all the local information we have and what’s happening overseas we believe Covid cases will rise in the coming weeks.”Chant reiterated the importance of getting booster doses and again urged those most at risk of severe disease to plan ahead by talking to their doctor about the antivirals available to reduce the severity of infection.She also urged people to stay home if they have cold or flu-like symptoms and asked those who must leave the house while unwell to wear a mask when indoors or on public transport. They should avoid large gatherings and high-risk settings, such as hospitals and aged or disability care facilities, for at least seven days.Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and XBB are driving significant cases and hospitalisations overseas due to their ability to escape immunity from past infection – and due to waning immunity from past vaccination.The World Health Organization does not consider the two subvariants as different enough from other circulating Omicron subvariants to warrant their classification as new variants of concern. But the two sublineages remain part of Omicron, which is a variant of concern.The WHO has said there is no epidemiological data to suggest an increase in disease severity due to the variants. “Cases of reinfection were primarily limited to those with initial infection in the pre-Omicron period,” a WHO statement published on 27 October said. “As of now, there are no data to support escape from recent immune responses induced by other Omicron lineages.”
Pediatric health care workers cry for help as US hospitals are overwhelmed by spread of respiratory viruses - Pediatric hospitals throughout the United States are facing an unprecedented crisis as they are inundated with infants and children suffering from a number of respiratory illnesses, most predominantly respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), that are ripping through the child population. While reports show that three-quarters of all pediatric hospital beds in the US are now occupied, the number of intensive care unit (ICU) beds for the sickest children are at or near capacity as greater numbers of children are being hospitalized. RSV can cause bronchiolitis, or inflammation in the lower airways, and may lead to pneumonia if the inflammation spreads deeper in the airspaces of the lung. Children are presenting with difficulty breathing, eating and drinking, requiring critical care services that include breathing tubes and IV fluids, with some requiring to be placed on a ventilator. While the majority of children being hospitalized are suffering from RSV, other viruses such as rhinovirus, enterovirus, adenovirus, influenza and COVID-19 are continuing to circulate among children, with reports that some children are presenting to hospitals infected with multiple viruses simultaneously. Samantha, a Southern California pediatric nurse who works in an emergency department (ED), told the World Socialist Web Site that there are no beds at her children’s hospital, which is also running out of critical supplies. Her name has been changed to protect her identity. “The lobbies are nearing triple digits, holding kids in the ER up to 30 hours because there are no beds. They’re making makeshift beds, dedicating sections of the lobby for respiratory kids. Respiratory therapists are running around, a lot of suctioning. And we’re being projected to be hit harder these next couple of months. Plus a shit-ton of ED to ED transfers from all the other hospitals. “It’s getting out of hand. We are running out of HFNC. High flow nasal cannulas are a basic supply, especially for patients suffering from respiratory illnesses, that can supply a larger amount of O₂ for patients unable to be managed on the standard amount of O₂ flow.” Samantha went on to describe serious safety issues she has witnessed in the ED during the current surge, “We’ve had nights where we were severely understaffed. Our charge nurse pleaded to our ED director to divert. They said no and to just hold the staff over for double time. No one stayed. We had a patient seize in our lobby for about 20 minutes before we noticed because our check-in line was wrapped around to the main entrance and our lobby was packed like sardines. Kid ended up being intubated and sent upstairs. “We were told to move our admit holds to other parts of our ER to make room for patients from the lobby and runs. I once had a kid on a dopamine drip, another on an insulin drip, an oncology patient that was going septic and a seizure patient. In other words, patients were unstable but were being moved around just to accommodate the sheer volume. The floor hasn’t had the staff to fill beds, as is California law where ratios are mandated. So we hold patients in our ER for upwards of 30 hours.”
A mother’s harrowing RSV story ends with a simple lesson - The doctor listened to his chest with her stethoscope and didn’t like what she heard: wheezing, some crackling. She showed me how Ethan’s tomach moved heavily each time he inhaled and exhaled. They had Ethan complete a nebulizer treatment in the office, which meant slipping a device on his face that resembled an oxygen mask, while medicated air meant to open up his lungs flowed through a frightfully loud machine. The doctor listened to his lungs again. His breathing still didn’t sound great, but she said the hospitals were too inundated right now. I knew all too well what she meant. A few days before our urgent care visit, I had flagged a report for editors at The Hill that said children’s hospitals in the Washington area were at capacity, flooded with young kids suffering from RSV, a potentially life-threatening respiratory illness that has no vaccine. After a three-hour visit, she gave Ethan a steroid and told us to follow up with his pediatrician the next day. By the time we got to the pediatrician’s office the following morning, my happy-go-lucky, playful little guy was anything but. He curled up in my lap as we went through a similar routine that the urgent care doctor had done just the night before. His oxygen levels were too low, and our pediatrician had him do another nebulizer treatment. “Our goal is to keep you from going to the hospital,” our pediatrician told us. It seemed like an unusual “goal” from a doctor, but I understood her reasoning. But after Ethan’s oxygen levels dipped lower still after the nebulizer, she said we should rush him straight to the hospital after all. Surprisingly, a separate waiting area in the ER just for children wasn’t completely full, and I wondered if maybe news reports of endless waits were overblown. Not so. “He’s so cute,” a young mother in the waiting room told me, after telling me she had waited three hours so far. I held Ethan as my husband rushed from work to the hospital, meeting us there and with us as we were brought to an ER triage area. They ran more oxygen tests on Ethan, got some of his history, and then sent us back to the waiting room. Finally, they called Ethan’s name and we were in the ER. My vibrant, otherwise-healthy kid was lethargic, laying on me with a glazed look in his eyes. We struggled to fit the two of us on an exam table meant for a single adult. They draped a lead apron over me and Ethan as they took X-rays of his tiny lungs. The ER doctor finally came in our room and delivered a crash course in what might be to come. “Everywhere is full. The entire Eastern seaboard,” he said of hospitals. “We’ve been airlifting kids to Pittsburgh, sometimes to Richmond,” he added. This hospital had a pediatric unit, but not an intensive care geared towards kids. So if Ethan’s condition became even more dire, they wouldn’t be able to treat him there. Our only hope was that the pediatric unit, which had just a few remaining beds, accepted him. It was a gut punch. As the doctor left, my husband looked at Ethan, who had fallen asleep with a mask on as the nebulizer loudly buzzed away for another treatment. “He’s just a baby. He’s not supposed to be here,” my husband said, defeated. The pediatric unit doctor finally came into our room. She examined Ethan, and briefed us on how they’ve been dealing with case after case of the same thing: RSV. But she offered us hope: He could head to the pediatric unit at the hospital. We wouldn’t need to travel for his care, as long as he didn’t worsen. Ten hours after we first entered the hospital, we had a bed for Ethan. We’re among the lucky ones. We were told beyond airlifting, plenty of families had been spending multiple nights in the ER because there were no beds.
HHS renews public health emergency for monkeypox outbreak - The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on Wednesday renewed the national public health emergency for the monkeypox outbreak, with officials stating that the virus is still very present in the U.S. even as cases continue to drop.HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra cited the “continued consequences of an outbreak of monkeypox cases across multiple states” as well as a “consultation with public health officials” for his decision to renew the public health emergency.The public health emergency for monkeypox was first signed on August 4. Public health emergencies from HHS end after 90 days unless they are renewed.An HHS spokesperson told The Hill that the decision to renew was also prompted by the need to maintain the flow of data from states and jurisdictions as well as to allow vaccine effectiveness studies to take place. There are currently no vaccines or treatments specifically meant for monkeypox, but treatments for smallpox, which is part of the family of viruses that monkeypox belongs to, have been mobilized to at-risk communities. These include the smallpox vaccine Jynneos as well as the antiviral tecovirimat, better known as TPOXX.Since peaking in early August, monkeypox cases in the U.S. have continued to drop, with the most recent seven day moving average for cases standing at 30 per day. Experts have attributed this swift drop in cases to changes in behavior among men who have sex with men, the demographic that has been largely affected by the global monkeypox outbreak.Over 28,000 monkeypox cases have been confirmed in the U.S. as well as six related deaths. More than 77,000 cases have been reported globally. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in September expressed “moderate confidence” that monkeypox cases would plateau or continue to decline going forward, though the agency said it was unlikely that monkeypox would be entirely eliminated in the U.S.
Uganda reports more Ebola cases and deaths -- Uganda over the past few days has reported 2 more Ebola cases, along with 9 more deaths, raising the confirmed totals to 130 cases, 43 of them fatal, the World Health Organization (WHO) Uganda country office said in its latest updates. Officials have also reported 21 suspected cases, all of them fatal, from earlier in the outbreak. The event began in early September, and the virus may have been circulating for as long as 3 weeks before the first case was detected. The outbreak involves the rarer Sudan Ebola strain, for which there are no approved treatments or vaccines. The two latest cases were in Kassanda, one of seven affected districts. One involves a 9-year-old girl, and no details were available about the other patient. Both were contacts of known cases. Regarding the latest deaths, three were reported as part of case management data reconciliation. Of the other six, five were reported from Mubende, one of the main hot spots. The other involved a patient who died at an Ebola treatment center in Entebbe. The case-fatality rate among lab-confirmed patients is 33%. Outbreak responders are have identified 1,777 contacts across eight districts, and 87% of them are under monitoring. At a WHO briefing today, Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said Mubende is still the most affected district, but cases have recently risen in two neighboring districts. He said that, so far, 17 cases have been confirmed in Kampala, the country's capital and largest city. "Although these cases are linked to known clusters, the very fact that there are cases in a densely populated city underscores the very real risk of further transmission, and the very urgent need for increased readiness in districts and surrounding countries," Tedros said. He also added that the WHO yesterday released an additional $5.7 million from its emergency contingency fund to further support the response.
Uganda says Ebola outbreak death toll rises to 48 (Reuters) - The death toll from an Ebola outbreak in Uganda has risen to 48, with 131 confirmed cases, a health official involved in managing the outbreak said on Thursday. Last week Uganda's health minister put the death toll at 30, with 109 confirmed cases. "Confirmed cases by today 131 and 48 deaths," Henry Kyobe Bosa, Ebola incident commander at Uganda's health ministry, told a briefing organised by the World Health Organization's Africa office. "On the spread and when we are likely to have the outbreak ending I see no experts on this panel can actually predict when it will end," he said, adding authorities were using measures like contact-tracing, risk communication, and appropriate treatment and burials to control the outbreak. Last month the government said it was optimistic the Ebola outbreak could be wiped out by the end of the year. Africa's top public health body said last week it thought the situation was "not getting out of hand". The virus circulating in Uganda is the Sudan strain of Ebola, for which there is no proven vaccine, unlike the more common Zaire strain seen during recent outbreaks in Democratic Republic of Congo. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in mid-October that a clinical trial of vaccines to combat the Sudan strain of Ebola could start within weeks.
Lettuce recalled in Florida over possible salmonella contamination – Kalera Public Limited Company is recalling over 600 cases of lettuce due to concerns that the product could be contaminated with salmonella.According to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 633 cases of Krunch, Butter and Romaine whole-head variety lettuces are included in the voluntary recall. Affected lot codes include 001293 and 001294, and can be found on the label.Health officials say the affected products were distributed to a small number of retail and food service customers in Florida, who have been notified of the health concern. Kalera said there have been no reports of illnesses. Salmonella infection commonly causes diarrhea, fever and stomach cramps that begin anytime between six hours and six days after swallowing the bacteria. Infected people under the age of 5 or over 64, and those with weakened immune systems, may get severely ill and require hospitalization.
Nestle TOLL HOUSE Edible Cookie Dough Recalled --Nestle USA Inc., affiliated to Swiss food and beverage giant Nestle SA, is recalling a limited quantity of Edible Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough tubs from TOLL HOUSE citing the potential presence of soft plastic film, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said. The recall involves three batches of Edible Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough tubs from NESTLÉ TOLL HOUSE, such as 22135554RR, 22145554RR, and 22155554RR. They were produced between August 1 and 3, and distributed to retailers across the United States. The recall does not involve any other NESTLÉ TOLL HOUSE products, including other varieties of Edible cookie dough or Ready-to-Bake cookie dough. The company has not received any reports of illnesses or injuries related to the recalled products to date. Consumers who may have purchased these three batch codes of Edible Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough tubs are urged to return the product to the respective retailer for a replacement or refund. Nestle in mid- October initiated a separate and unrelated recall for NESTLÉ TOLL HOUSE Stuffed Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough with Fudge Filling citing the potential presence of white plastic pieces. Those ready-to-bake refrigerated Cookie Dough were produced between June and September 2022. In similar recalls, Foster Farms in late October recalled around 148,000 pounds of fully cooked frozen chicken breast patty products sold through various Costco stores due to the possible presence of hard clear pieces of plastic.
Researchers call for action on lead-contaminated meat due to EHN reporting – EHN --Scientists from the U.S. and Europe are calling for inspections of donated hunted meat at U.S. food banks to prevent toxic lead exposure for children and families.The paper, published last month in the American Journal of Public Health, cites anEHN.org investigation that found lead fragments are a known danger in hunted meat, but most states do not inspect for possible contamination. The reporting showed this lack of oversight could result in potentially hundreds of thousands of lead-contaminated meals each year, with fetuses, children and pregnant people most at risk. There is no safe level of lead in people’s blood. Exposure causes a range of health impacts including attention problems, decreased IQ, increased problem behaviors, kidney disease, preeclampsia and cardiovascular issues. A majority of hunters still use lead ammunition — though alternatives exist — and animals killed with lead bullets can contain fragments of the metal. The amount of contamination depends on the type of gun and bullet, whether the bullet hit the animal’s bones, and whether or not the meat is ground. (In Minnesota, where state officials actually test donated hunted meat for lead, most lead contamination has been found in ground venison).Reporter and University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health doctorial student and researcher Sam Totoni conducted the original investigation for EHN.org and also led the new call-to-action paper. Totoni and coauthors also pointed to the environmental injustice implications of this lack of testing.The authors acknowledge the benefits of donated hunted meat, but point out that there is nearly no oversight to ensure the safety of this type of meat at food banks across the U.S.Most states have adopted the FDA Food Code, which doesn’t address donated food. As a result, people who shop in grocery stores are protected from adulterated food that contains tiny pieces of metal, while people who receive donated food are not.“An underlying lack of food safety standards for adulterated donated food increases risks to low-income recipients, who are already disproportionately affected by elevated blood lead levels,” Totoni and colleagues wrote in their new report.
Glyphosate exposure for Indiana mothers linked to lower birth weights – EHN --Glyphosate exposure during pregnancy is linked to lower birth weights for babies, according to a new study of pregnant people in Indiana. Lower birth weights are associated with multiple health problems later in life, from diabetes to heart problems. In the study, published earlier this month in Environmental Health, the research team also found that mothers with high-risk pregnancies who had higher glyphosate levels in their urine during the first trimester were also more likely to have babies admitted to neonatal intensive care units, or NICUs. Although the study looked at a limited number of pregnant people, it adds to a small but growing body of evidence linking the most commonly used weed killer in the world to potential pregnancy harms, John Meeker, a professor of environmental health sciences at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health who was not involved with the study, told EHN. Given the animal literature showing congenital disabilities and reproductive harms from glyphosate, the new study, Meeker added, “really further shines light on the need for more studies in this area.” Glyphosate was originally marketed as a safer alternative to other herbicides, but as its use has grown, so too have concerns about its potential health effects. Of particular focus has been its potential to cause cancer, as highlighted by several recent high-profile lawsuits in the U.S., such as a class-action lawsuit in which up to 140,000 plaintiffs allege they developed a type of cancer called Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma due to Roundup use (glyphosate is the active ingredient in Roundup). But researchers like Dr. Paul Winchester, study author and professor of clinical pediatrics at the University of Indiana Medical School, are also worried about pesticide exposure in the womb. In an earlier study looking at glyphosate levels in pregnant people, Winchester and colleagues found glyphosate present in 94% of the expecting moms. “That was a huge surprise, that you went from a chemical that didn’t exist [on the market] to one that’s found in almost every pregnant mother,” Winchester, who is also a neonatal intensive care unit doctor, told EHN. Given glyphosate’s potential impacts on pregnancy outcomes, he and other researchers looked specifically at people in Indiana with high-risk pregnancies in the new study. When the team sampled the group’s urine during the first trimester, they found glyphosate in 186 out of 187 — or 99% — of the people involved in the study.
Wastewater Treatment Doesn't Prevent PFAS Reaching Crops --PFAS (per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances), a group of more than 4,700 fully synthetic compounds that are widely used in industrial and manufacturing processes and found in many consumer products, persist through wastewater treatment at levels that may impact the long-term feasibility of "beneficial reuse of treated wastewater," according to a study conducted by researchers at Penn State and recently published in the Agronomy Journal. PFAS, often referred to as "forever chemicals," are used to make fluoropolymer coatings and products that resist heat, oil, stains, grease and water, and are found in a variety of products from clothing and furniture to food packaging and non-stick cooking surfaces. “PFAS are so pervasive and persistent that they have been found in the environment all over the world, even in remote locations,” said Heather Preisendanz, associate professor of agricultural and biological engineering at Penn State. “Unfortunately, these compounds have been shown to negatively impact ecological and human health, particularly because they can bioaccumulate up the food chain and affect development in children, increase risk of cancer, contribute to elevated cholesterol levels, interfere with women’s fertility and weaken immune systems.” Because of their wide variety of uses, PFAS enter wastewater treatment plants from both household and industrial sources, said Preisendanz. Beneficial reuse of treated wastewater is an increasingly common practice in which treated wastewater is used for irrigation and other non-potable purposes. According to Preisendanz, this practice provides an opportunity for the soil to act as an additional filter for PFAS, reducing the immediate impact of direct discharge of PFAS to surface water, as would typically happen following traditional wastewater treatment. However, given that the chemical structures of PFAS are difficult to degrade, the risks and potential tradeoffs of using treated wastewater for irrigation practices, especially in the long-term, are not well understood. “PFAS have been shown to be taken up by crops and enter the food chain when the crops are consumed, so when treated wastewater is used for irrigation activities in agricultural fields, understanding these tradeoffs is of critical importance,” she said. Preisendanz and her colleagues analyzed PFAS concentrations in water that passed through a water reclamation facility. They collected bi-monthly water samples from fall 2019 through winter 2021 prior to treatment and after treatment. Since the treated water from the wastewater treatment plant is used to irrigate nearby crops, the team also collected tissues from those crop plants, including corn silage and tall fescue, to assess for the presence of PFAS. The team identified 10 types of PFAS across the site, with average total measured concentrations of 88 ng/L in the wastewater effluent and concentrations as high as 155 ng/L (nanograms per liter) in the downstream monitoring wells. The conclusions suggest that occurrence of PFAS across the site is nearly ubiquitous, and that levels increase with the direction of groundwater flow.
PFAS Chemicals Found in REI Rain Jackets - Center for Environmental Health --Today, the nonprofit watchdog Center for Environmental Health (CEH) initiated legal action against Recreational Equipment, Inc. (REI) after testing showed their waterproof rain jackets for kids and adults could expose individuals to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), two of the most hazardous and well-studied so-called “forever chemicals,” or PFAS. PFAS chemicals are widely used in consumer products to impart grease resistance, water resistance, and non-stick properties. Rain jackets from REI are treated with PFAS chemicals to make them waterproof, but the use of these hazardous chemicals unnecessarily exposes people to the harms posed by PFAS and further contaminates the environment with these persistent chemicals.Exposure to PFOA or PFOS is associated with the development of different cancers and a range of other adverse health effects. CEH’s legal notice claims that the company failed to provide consumers with a clear and reasonable warning about exposure to PFOA and PFOS in rain jackets, as required under California Proposition 65.“PFOA and PFOS are two of the most studied PFAS chemicals; exposure to PFOA and PFOS is associated with the development of liver and pancreatic cancer, thyroid problems, reduced immune function, vaccine efficacy, and harm to developing fetuses, among other negative health effects” said Dr. Jimena Díaz Leiva, Science Director at CEH. “Like all PFAS chemicals, PFOA and PFOS are highly persistent in the environment and break down slowly over time, accumulating in people and wildlife, and causing long-lasting health effects as well as polluting our environment. Given what we know about the negative health effects of PFAS, no company should be adding any PFAS chemicals into their products” said Emily Reder, Senior Manager of Illegal Toxic Threats at CEH.Last month, REI customers spanning 12 cities in 11 states delivered a petition signed by more than 130,000 people which called on REI to ban all PFAS from its products. Mind the Store, a program of Toxic-Free Future, led the national campaign against REI over the last year. For over 30 years, Prop 65 has served as a safeguard for consumers, protecting their right to know if a toxic chemical may be in a product before it is purchased, or serving as incentive for companies to remove concerning chemicals from their products so that they do not have to warn the buyer. CEH has previously found PFOA chemicals at high concentrations in makeup and cosmetics sold by Estée Lauder, MAC & Clinique.
Evidence of PFAS found in tampons — including organic brands – EHN - Five popular tampon brands — including two advertised as organic — have detectable levels of fluorine, an indicator of the group of chemicals known as PFAS, according to anew report from Mamavation.Partnering with EHN.org, the environmental wellness blog and community had 23 tampon products tested by a U.S.-Environmental-Protection-Agency-certified lab and found levels of fluorine ranging from 19 parts per million, or ppm, to 28 ppm in five of the brands: Maxim Hygiene Organic Cotton Cardboard Applicator Tampons, OrganYc Complete Protection Tampons (made with organic cotton), Playtex SPORT Regular & Super Tampons, Tampax Cardboard Applicator Unscented Tampons and Up & Up (Target Brand) Regular Tampons.EHN.org partially funded the testing and Pete Myers, chief scientist of Environmental Health Sciences, which publishes Environmental Health News, reviewed the findings. The report comes on the heels of an EHN.org investigation on PFAS in everything from sports clothes to makeup.Fluorine is a strong indicator of “forever chemicals”— which have been linked to everything from cancer to birth defects to lower vaccine effectiveness.Mamavation points out that per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, are just one of the possible harmful pollutants in tampons, as previous studies have found endocrine-disrupting chemicals like phthalates and bisphenol-A, commonly known as BPA, in tampons.“We know more than enough about low-dose toxicities of PFAS compounds and other cited contaminants to be certain that detectable quantities in tampons are unjustifiable,” Terrence Collins, Teresa Heinz Professor of Green Chemistry & Director of the Institute for Green Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University, told Mamavation.The new investigation is the latest from Mamavation, which previously found fluorine in everyday products such as yoga pants and leggings and clean beauty brands' makeup.A past investigation also looked at PFAS indicators in period underwear and found 11 of 17 tested pairs had detectable levels of fluorine. While the health impacts of PFAS exposure via skin contact are still somewhat unclear, Linda S. Birnbaum, Scientist Emeritus and Former Director of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and National Toxicology Program, told Mamavation “we already know that PFAS has the ability to impact almost every organ of the body. The vagina is an incredibly vascular area and dermal exposure is often higher there than in other places of the body.”
Beauty products with fluorinated ingredients may also contain PFAS, study reports - American Chemical Society -Smooth, foamy, water-proof. These characteristics are extremely desirable in beauty products, but manufacturers sometimes use ingredients that contain fluorine — including potentially harmful per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) — to achieve them. Now, researchers reporting in ACS’ Environmental Science & Technology show that some cosmetics and personal care products labeled as having fluorinated components also contain PFAS, whether or not these “forever chemicals” were listed as ingredients. Although the most concerning PFAS are no longer used in many beauty products, in some cases they’ve been replaced with other classes of PFAS that have unknown health and environmental impacts. And a recent study found that numerous cosmetics in the U.S. and Canada still contain these substances. However, it’s unclear whether these compounds are in personal care products, such as creams, cleansers, shampoos and shaving creams. So, Amy Rand and colleagues wanted to examine a variety of beauty products that listed fluorinated components in their formulations for the presence of PFAS. In 2020 and 2021, the team purchased 38 beauty products available from local stores in Canada and online that contained organofluorine compounds and analyzed them for older types of PFAS. All of the samples had measurable levels of PFAS, but some of the detected compounds weren’t listed as ingredients in the products. The levels found in personal care products were generally lower than in cosmetics. And the team identified that two foundations, labeled with terms similar to “water-proof,” had high levels of total PFAS, one of which had thousands of parts per million (ppm), a level that exceeds proposed Canadian PFAS regulations. Then, the researchers took a subset of the purchased items and screened them for over 200 additional PFAS, including the emerging classes that are replacing legacy compounds. One emerging class — monohydrogen substituted perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids — was found in 30% of the subset with amounts from less than one ppb to hundreds of ppb. During this analysis, they also found a variety of structurally diverse PFAS that didn’t appear to be related to the PFAS originally added to the products, which the researchers suggest could be the result of product ageing or contamination from impurities in raw materials. These results show the diversity of PFAS compounds, and the wide ranges of their amounts, present in some cosmetics and personal care products currently sold in Canada, but the researchers say more work is needed to understand where unexpected PFAS come from.
You Can’t Always Trust Claims on ‘Non-Toxic’ Cookware - Consumer Reports - If you’ve shopped for nonstick cookware recently, you may have noticed labels meant to indicate that your new frying pan is free of certain hazardous chemicals. That includes PFOA, which is one of the thousands of chemicals that fall into the category of PFAS—per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances. They’re called “forever chemicals” because many persist for months or even years in our bodies and they break down very slowly, if ever, in the environment. PFOA, which has been studied more than most other related chemicals, raises particular concerns because it has been clearly linked to health risks in humans. It also includes PTFE, the coating on many nonstick pans that was introduced in the 1940s as Teflon. Growing research suggests that many of the compounds used to make that coating may also pose health risks. To see if nonstick pans that are claimed to be PFOA-free really are, and if consumers can rely on other PFAS-related claims, CR recently tested three recommended nonstick frying pans in our ratings at different price points. They were the Our Place Always Pan and the Red Copper pan,, both of which have ceramic coatings and are said to be free of PTFE and PFOA, and the Swiss Diamond pan, which has a PTFE coating and is said to be PFOA-free. The two ceramic pans didn’t contain any of the 96 PFAS our testers looked for. The PTFE-coated pan, on the other hand, had measurable amounts of PFOA and several other PFAS. Because CR’s tests and research show that even products made without PFOA may contain the compound because of how they’re manufactured, we have decided to no longer display “PFOA-free” in our ratings of nonstick cookware. Such claims may not be reliable for PTFE-coated products. “Avoiding products made with PFAS, including pots and pans, may help protect your health and the environment,” says Eric Boring, PhD, a CR chemist who oversaw our testing. “And our findings suggest that consumers who want to avoid PFAS in their nonstick cookware may want to focus on products that claim to be PTFE-free.” He and other experts CR spoke with say that nonstick pans that are made with a ceramic coating and carry a PTFE-free claim, such as the Red Copper and Always pans, are far less likely to have forever chemicals. Of course, many uncoated pans, including those made with carbon steel and cast iron, are also unlikely to contain PFAS, though they might not prevent food from sticking as well or be quite as easy to clean. Below are more results from our tests of PFAS in nonstick frying pans, plus advice on how to find one made without those harmful chemicals.
PFAS left dangerous blood compounds in nearly all US study participants -Nearly all participants in a new study looking at exposure to PFAS “forever chemicals” in the US state of North Carolina have multiple dangerous compounds in their blood, and most at levels that researchers say requires medical screening. The North Carolina State University study, which is among the largest ever conducted, checked about 1,500 blood samples from people living in the Cape Fear River basin over several years. It’s the first study to recommend screening for cancers, kidney damage, heart disease and other health issues linked to the chemicals, using newly developed physicians’ guidelines for PFAS exposure.In most cases, the PFAS levels were much higher than the national median, and participants were “scared” by the results, said study co-author Jane Hoppin.“But the key piece to remember is that blood is measuring the past,” she said. “The [physicians’ guidelines] give us some things we can do to protect our health and, as much as possible, reduce the PFAS exposure that we currently have.”PFAS are a class of about 12,000 compounds typically used to make products resist water, stains and heat. They are linked to a range of serious health problems, and are estimated to be contaminating drinking water for over 200m people nationwide.In the Cape Fear basin, the pollution is thought to largely stem from a Fayetteville Chemours plant that DuPont operated for decades before 2015. Airports, textile producers and other industries upstream have also discharged PFAS into the river.The blood study has implications for which polluters are responsible and legally liable for health problems that many public health advocates and residents say stem from PFAS exposure.Some of the compounds, like those commonly known as Nafion byproduct 2 and PFO4DA, are produced by Chemours. But “legacy” compounds that have largely been phased out of production in the US, like PFOS (perfluorooctanesulfonic acid) and PFOA (perfluorooctanoic acid), were also used by other industries near the river. Chemours has previously seized on those points: “The results showed that legacy compounds not associated with Chemours manufacturing were the compounds most prevalent in participants.” But public health advocates say that’s misleading. Chemours emitted PFOA as recently as 2012, company and state records obtained by the Guardian show, and the chemical can stay in human blood for many years. Moreover, Chemours’ PFOA still contaminates a groundwater plume around the plant, and those chemicals can continue getting in drinking water and residents’ blood.And though some newer generation Chemours chemicals, like those commonly called GenX, were not detected at high levels in blood serum, some newer PFAS have been found to accumulate in organs, and in some cases, science simply cannot detect them in blood, researchers say.GenX is also highly toxic at small doses, so even if it does not stay in the body, it is dangerous, Hoppin added. She likened GenX exposure to drinking alcohol – the alcohol is quickly out of one’s body, but it still does damage to organs.In a statement to the Guardian, Chemours said it reduced its PFAS pollution in the Cape Fear by over 99%: “We continue to operate with transparency and continue to fulfill our commitment to reduce PFAS emissions by 99%.” However, the levels it once discharged into the river, coupled with other sources, were so high that even with the reduction, PFAS levels in drinking water around the Cape Fear basin still frequently exceed EPA advisory levels. And the 99% reduction only accounts for some PFAS compounds.“Chemours is going to say what Chemours is going to say, and they’ll try to spin it,” Hoppin said.
Parts Per Trillion: An Overview of State PFAS Drinking Water Standards | Rockefeller Institute of Government --Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been produced and used in the United States for roughly 80 years. Research has shown they are toxic, persistent, and bioaccumulative, and exposure through contaminated drinking water has been linked to several negative health outcomes including various forms of cancer, but there are currently no enforceable federal drinking water standards for any PFAS compounds. It is only in the last two decades or so that federal regulators have started to understand the negative health impacts following decades of industry’s failure to disclose internal health impacts studies and knowledge of harms. Regulators at the federal and state level have since started to address this group of human-made chemicals.State legislation and regulations pertaining to PFAS have increased in recent years in response to cases of contamination across the country coming to light. Affected communities and advocates have fought for greater state level protections and measures to address resulting harms in the absence of enforceable federal regulations. To date, nine states have set their own drinking water standards through a combination of legislative, regulatory, and advisory body actions.In late 2021, however, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) laid out a new PFAS Strategic Roadmap in which it slated the proposal of new federal drinking water standards for two PFAS chemicals—PFOA (perfluorooctanoic acid) and PFOS (perfluorooctanesulfonic acid)—for the fall of 2022. That formal proposal will need to work its way through a lengthy rulemaking process. If finalized, they will represent the first new federal drinking water standards for any contaminant since 1996, when the current process for establishing such standards was enacted. Moreover, since the PFAS Strategic Roadmap was laid out, in June 2022, the EPA revised its interim drinking water advisories (previously set in 2016) for PFOA and PFOS to drastically lower levels.This brief addresses the history of what we do and don’t know about the impacts of PFAS exposure with respect to drinking water. It provides an overview of how testing for unregulated contaminants like PFAS occurs at the federal level, and how the knowledge/ignorance produced through those processes relates to the absence of federal standards. Read the full policy brief.
Wisconsin DNR launches PFAS testing requirement across the state — The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is launching a new requirement to track down cancer-causing forever chemicals across the state. Cities with a population of over 50,000, including the City of La Crosse, will be required to test their water for PFAS beginning Nov. 1. In the city of La Crosse, that testing has already begun. “Human beings are mostly composed of water. So everything that we ingest has a direct correlation on our health,” said Lee Donahue, supervisor for the Town of Campbell. Water is life. But for those whose water is contaminated with PFAS, water can cause more problems than it solves. “Consuming these chemicals over time at levels we suspect health-based effects can happen are detrimental to people’s health,” said Adam DeWeese, the public water supply section chief at Wisconsin’s DNR. In hopes of tracking down PFAS levels across the state, the DNR has new testing requirement. The tests look for dangerous levels of PFOA and PFOS. “So if the system has any kind of water treatment, if they have filtration, disinfection, stuff like that; this sampling takes place after that,” DeWeese said. “If, through this sampling, we find out PFAS is a big problem, of course we will direct more resources to it.” According to a DNR database, all eight of La Crosse’s running wells have been tested. Each well had low contamination levels; none of them close to approaching a dangerous threshold. The DNR testing requirement will eventually apply to smaller municipalities. But for most of those who live in the town of Campbell, this is not a solution. “Each resident has their own well. The new requirement is for municipal water systems, so usually those are associated with either villages or cities,” Donahue said. For the rest of Wisconsin, the DNR says this is a step closer to more help. For cities smaller than a population of 50,000 but bigger than 10,000, that testing will be required beginning Feb. 1. For municipalities smaller than 10,000, that testing will be required on May 1.
'Nightmare' U.P. industrial fire rages for two weeks, raises PFAS concerns --A fire has been raging at an Upper Peninsula industrial complex for two weeks despite the "aggressive attack" firefighters across the region launched against the flames, Menominee Fire Chief Mark Petersen said Thursday. As fire crews from around Michigan and Wisconsin continue fighting the blaze, environmental officials are monitoring PFAS compounds in the area's drinking water, which have risen since the fire started Oct. 6 although state environmental officials say they remain within safe limits. The fire started on Oct. 6 at a paper plant and warehouse in Menominee, a small city on Michigan's border with Wisconsin. The warehouse was filled with bales of scrap paper and pulp towering more than 10 feet high. As the flames swept through the building, firefighters lost visibility, Peterson said. They were ordered out of the building to fight the fireand transition their focus to protecting portions of the industrial complex. "It's been a nightmare," Peterson said. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer declared a state of emergency for Menominee County on Oct. 13.It's unclear what started the warehouse fire. The damage has been extensive — 420,000 square feet of the 560,000 square-foot building has been destroyed, including the portion of the facility that housed Resolute Forest Products, a pulp and paper manufacturer headquartered in Montreal, Canada and employs roughly 100 people in Menominee, The Environmental Protection Agency, Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy and Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources are sampling surface water at 21 locations near the site as well as the Menominee and Marinette water treatment plants and the Menominee River. The facility is adjacent to the river and the state border.Levels of PFAS compounds in nearby drinking water have risen since the fire started, state and federal environmental regulators found, and some compounds have been detected for the first time.None of the compounds are above state-determined maximum safe levels, which means the state had deemed the drinking water safe for normal use, said Mike Bolf, Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy drinking water engineering manager. He noted that PFAS findings peaked early after the fire started and are trending down.But at least one PFAS compound, PFOA, was temporarily in excess of the interim advisory limits the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued this summer, which are more conservative than the limits set by states. PFOA levels were two parts per trillion in Marinette's drinking water on Oct. 10, EGLE found. The EPA's safety advisory says the acceptable limit is .004 parts per trillion for a lifetime of exposure in drinking water. For many PFAS chemicals, the EPA interim safety advisories set a drinking water limit of almost zero for lifetime exposure. Firefighting water that entered the Menominee River during the early days of the blaze may have been contaminated with industrial chemicals and PFAS that were stored at the facility, the EPA said on Oct. 14.
A Michigan community’s long battle with PFAS and the Pentagon - It was five years ago while kayaking with his wife on northeast Michigan’s Van Etten Lake adjacent to a former Air Force base, says attorney Anthony Spaniola, when he spotted a work crew testing a foam substance on the beach. He says he’d heard that the state had found astronomically high levels of toxic per- and polyfluorinated substances, or PFAS, in the foam that formed a snowlike crest around the lake. The foam was said to contain 2,200 parts per trillion of PFOS, a type of PFAS. The Environmental Protection Agency has set the current safe level of PFOS at 0.02 parts per trillion. Spaniola paddled over to the contractors testing the foam to see what results they were getting. “I said to them, ‘I saw that story in the paper about 2,200 parts per trillion. That seems really high to me,’” Spaniola said in a recent interview. “And in a moment of candor, one of them said to me, ‘Buddy, we got way higher than that.’” Spaniola was discovering what hundreds of communities across the country have been learning with increasing frequency in the past decade: U.S. military installations have colossal problems with PFAS, also known as “forever chemicals” because they don’t break down naturally, like the coatings on non-stick cookware and the compounds that resist flames in firefighting foam used by the military. The chemicals are also highly toxic, having been linked to a wide range of health problems even at very low exposures. Since early in 2010, Spaniola had been involved with community efforts to get the DOD to clean up contamination that has spread over nearly 6 square miles, including parts of Van Etten Lake, the Au Sable River and the groundwater used by hundreds in the town of Oscoda on the shore of Lake Huron. The toxic substances originated at Wurtsmith Air Force Base, a sprawling complex that operated for 70 years before it was designated a federal Superfund site in 1994, the year after it closed. Most of the PFAS came from heavy-duty fire suppressants known as aqueous film forming foam (AFFF) used to snuff out fires and in practice drills at the base, long a training site for bomber crews. But it took until 2010, through testing by a state environmental specialist, that PFAS was discovered in the water supplies, making Wurtsmith the first of more than 700 military sites found to be contaminated with the highly hazardous compounds.
How the Hulk took EPA to task over 'forever chemicals' - Mark Ruffalo was not satisfied with EPA’s approach to “forever chemicals.”The film and television star who plays the Hulk had been pushing the Biden administration to do more to regulate per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, which have contaminated water, land and air across the country. In October of last year, EPA announced its strategic road map for tackling the compounds, and several activists, including Ruffalo, were displeased at its limited scope.“Mark has been pushing the EPA (YOU) to do more and to move quicker on regulating PFAS,” said a call sheet memoprepared for EPA Administrator Michael Regan.The document went on: “In addition, he has been retweeting stories after you made the announcement that say that ‘experts say the plan isn’t enough,’” as well as stories that “emphasize” Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility and attorney Robert Bilott, the memo noted, citing two frequent detractors of the agency on its PFAS response.The memo and other records obtained by E&E News under the Freedom of Information Act shed light on how EPA tracks and mitigates high-profile criticism of the agency. Within days of the road map’s announcement and Ruffalo’s apparent frustration, EPA officials sought to arrange a meeting between the administrator and the actor.On the day the PFAS road map was launched, Kendra Barkoff Lamy, then a senior adviser to Regan, emailed EPA’s announcement to Ruffalo’s associates. “I wanted to flag this for both of you,” she said.Two days later, she was seeking a meeting with Ruffalo. “I wanted to circle back to see if we can still get the Administrator to connect with Mark,” Barkoff Lamy said in another email.Regan’s official calendar shows his meeting with Ruffalo happened less than two weeks later, on Nov. 1, 2021. An invitation describes the meeting as a video call lasting 20 minutes, with Ruffalo, Barkoff Lamy and John Lucey, a close aide to the administrator who served with him at the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, attending virtually.Underlying the memo’s suggested talking points for Regan was that EPA planned to do more on PFAS and that the administrator looked forward to working with Ruffalo on the issue.“As we do more, we learn more. As we learn more, we will do even more,” the memo said. “So the book is not closed, and we will be adding to it.” Also included on the memo for Regan were talking points for “ELGs” or Effluent Limitation Guidelines “(if he brings it up),” referring to Ruffalo. Those are wastewater discharge standards for industrial facilities and have been closely watched by environmentalists.
Higher levels of toxic-metal air pollution seen in racially segregated communities - Residents of the most racially segregated communities tend to breathe in higher concentrations of toxic-metal air pollution compared with residents in more integrated areas.That’s according to new research from Colorado State University that assessed air levels of toxic-metals like lead, cadmium and nickel in different communities throughout the country. Levels were recorded between 2010 and 2019.“While concentrations of total fine particulate matter are two times higher in racially segregated communities, concentrations of metals from anthropogenic sources are nearly ten times higher,” authors wrote, adding these pollutants are toxic and can cause cancer. Results showed industrial regions in the Midwest and shipping ports in coastal cities tended to have higher concentrations of human-emitted metal pollutants like lead. These areas also had high degrees of racial segregation. For decades, people of color have been exposed to higher levels of air pollution than their white counterparts. The systematic separation of racial or ethnic groups in separate geographical areas has also been linked with higher risks of infant and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, and pregnancy complications.These health disparities are largely due to systemic racism, including historic redlining. In the 1930s, laws permitted discriminatory loan distribution to residents based on their neighborhood’s desirability. This practice was outlawed in 1968 but continues to perpetuate present-day disparities, as it forced populations of color to live closer to sources of pollution. Researchers assessed the toxic metal components of fine particulate matter in both racially-segregated and racially-integrated areas. A total of nine metals were studied and separated into two groups: those resulting from human activity and those from natural sources.Overall, results showed different areas were exposed to different types of particles, and that emission sources play a role in exposure rates. “Anthropogenically emitted particulate metal concentrations are on average 30–75 percent higher in highly segregated counties compared to moderately segregated counties and a factor of 5-20 times higher in highly segregated counties compared to well-integrated counties,” authors wrote.
Air Pollution in Racially Segregated Areas Holds Far More Toxic Metals, Scientists Find – CNET - These communities are excessively plagued by airborne particles known to cause cancer, a new study suggests.Time and again, studies have shown that people of color in the US are exposed to much higher levels of fine-particulate air pollution than their white counterparts are. It's an injustice documented by "a mountain of evidence," as a 2021 New York Times report says.And on Tuesday, a study published in the journal Nature Communications presented information that's even more troubling. "Populations living in racially segregated communities not only breathe more fine-particle air pollution, they breathe a form of pollution that is much more concentrated in toxic, cancer-causing compounds," John Volckens, a Colorado State University engineering professor and co-author of the study,said in a statement. Those compounds comprise elements like lead, cadmium and nickel and often stem from the same human activities contributing to global warming -- industrial work in factories, for instance. These harmful substances are also connected to serious health risks other than cancer, like neurological and respiratory damage. Previously, scientists had focused on figuring out where fine-particulate matter (also called PM2.5 because each particle is less than 2.5 microns in diameter) resides. And such studies had plainly shown PM2.5 permeating places where communities of color are located -- a conclusion that illustrated how people of color are breathing in a greater number of particles known to add to the global burden of disease. The situation was already considered dire. But Volckens and fellow researchers wanted to dig deeper. They examined the toxic metal components in PM2.5 to understand where the most hazardous type of fine-particulate matter floats in the air -- plus, they specifically included an indicator of racial residential segregation in their analysis. In other words, the team looked to see whether those extra-hazardous PM2.5 clouds were concentrated in areas called home primarily by people of color. The results were concerning."While concentrations of total fine-particulate matter are two times higher in racially segregated communities, concentrations of metals from anthropogenic sources are nearly 10 times higher," the study states. The phrase "anthropogenic sources" simply refers to pollution sources originating in human activity.Connecting the dots, the study also highlights the possibility that known and recorded health disparities in communities of color may be blamed on these populations being exposed to higher amounts of such carcinogenic metals in the air. "Across the country, people in some racial and ethnic minority groups experience higher rates of poor health and disease for a range of conditions ... when compared to their white counterparts," the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says. That includes diabetes, hypertension, obesity, asthma, heart disease, preterm birth, and notably, in this case, cancer. "These disparities sometimes persist even when accounting for other demographic and socioeconomic factors, such as age or income," the CDC says.
Tiny particles of air pollution appear more deadly if from human-made sources – EHN -Patients exposed to air pollution in western Pennsylvania were more likely to die than patients exposed to similar levels of air pollution elsewhere.—Air pollution from human-made sources like factories and vehicles is significantly more dangerous to patients with certain lung diseases than other types of air pollution, according to a new study.Most research on air pollution treats all PM2.5 — air pollution particles smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter (much smaller than a grain of sand) — as equally dangerous.But PM2.5 can be made up of many components, including things like sulfate, nitrate and ammonium, which primarily come from human-made sources like fossil fuel combustion and industrial emissions, but can also come from natural sources like soil, sea salt and wildfires. This new study is among the first to indicate that the sources of air pollution particles could determine how harmful they are.“It’s often assumed that all PM2.5 is the same,” Dr. Gillian Goobie, lead author of the study and a doctoral candidate at the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Public Health, told EHN. “We now have a better idea of which specific particles are causing the most harm for these patients, and what the likely sources of those particles are.” The study, published in JAMA Internal Medicine, looked at the effects of air pollution from various sources on patients with fibrotic interstitial lung disease — a group of more than 200 lung diseases that involve scarring of the lungs. Patients with these diseases are more vulnerable to the effects of air pollution than the general population.The researchers used satellite data to determine the makeup of PM2.5 pollution and compared the impacts of exposure to different types of PM2.5 particles among 6,683 patients in three groups: one in Canada, one in western Pennsylvania, and one that spans 26 states across the U.S.All patients exposed to PM2.5 above a certain threshold had worse lung function and were more likely to die than patients exposed to lower levels of air pollution. But the group in western Pennsylvania, who were exposed to similar levels of PM2.5 but a higher proportion of human-made air pollutants than the other groups, had a mortality risk about 6 to10 times as high as the others.Canadian patients exposed to average annual levels of PM2.5 higher than 8 micrograms per cubic meter had a mortality rate about 45% higher than those exposed to PM2.5 levels below the threshold. Patients in the broad U.S. group exposed to PM2.5 above the same threshold had a mortality rate 71% higher. Meanwhile, western Pennsylvanian patients exposed to pollution levels above the threshold had a mortality rate about 440% higher.
Advocates say Allegheny County's air pollution rules should be revisited - Pittsburgh Business Times - Environmental advocates told the Allegheny County Board of Health that the new regulation that requires pollution controls during times of temperature inversion — which occurred for an extended period last month in the Mon Valley — needs to be revisited. They also questioned why the Allegheny County Health Department didn't issue an air-quality warning earlier in October. Rules passed by the Allegheny County Board of Health and County Council last year set out action plans to reduce emissions from local manufacturers when the inversion, which traps pollution at the surface, occurs. When there's an air quality warning, called the Mon Valley Pollution Episode Warning, companies are required to take steps to reduce pollution. Two of the five air-quality alert episodes in less than a year occurred in October 2022, including a warning that lasted from Oct. 22 to Oct. 26. Patrick Campbell, executive director of the Group Against Smog & Pollution (GASP) told the Board of Health at its Wednesday afternoon meeting that it should take enforcement action against U.S. Steel's coke plant in Clairton for its role in pollution. "GASP also urges ACHD to take action now to review and amend the Mon Valley Air Pollution Episode Rule and its implementation to ensure it's working as intended," Campbell said. That was also raised by Matthew Mehalik, executive director of The Breathe Project. "It is also unclear if the rule works," Mehalik said. "Do U.S. Steel and other Mon Valley polluters curtail their emissions enough to stop the ongoing pollution?" He said the levels of PM2.5 particles, hydrogen sulfide and other substances lead to health problems among people who are susceptible as well as children and older people. He also asked why ACHD wasn't enforcing regulations about smells, which has led to more than 1,500 complaints on the SmellPGH app in October. PM2.5 is also known as particulate matter, small particles that can be inhaled into the lungs and can cause health impacts. Two other residents also brought up the concerns about the Mon Valley Episode Rule, and an ACHD official mentioned at the meeting there were also six written comments that were submitted about the rule as well. Campbell and others claimed ACHD didn't move an Oct. 11 watch to a warning a day later when the limit was achieved in the morning and was high that day. "Why wasn't a warning issue," Campbell said. "Had a warning been issued and industry polluters like U.S. Steel required to enact their mitigation plans and reduce emissions, could the exceedance have been avoided?" Mehalik also questioned the watch. "Right now a watch condition seems to mean that county residents can watch as their air quality goes downhill throughout the course of a full day before any meaningful reduction actions are required," he said. During the public comment period, U.S. Steel's Mark Jeffrey also addressed the inversions and said that the company was committed to doing its part to maintain compliance and improve air quality. Jeffrey called on other sources of PM2.5 emissions, which he said has been found across Allegheny County and around Pennsylvania and was becoming a regional issue. He said that there are many sources of hydrogen sulfide, including abandoned mines, oil and gas development, and waste treatment plants as well as U.S. Steel's Clairton plant. He urged a comprehensive study be made of the sources.
EPA touts largest-ever investment in monitoring air pollution - The Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday said that it would be able to fund 132 projects for monitoring air pollution in 37 states after recent legislation passed Congress. The funds, from both the Democrats’ COVID-19 stimulus package and their climate, tax and health care bill, will cover the grants. “This is the largest investment in air pollution monitoring in EPA’s history,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan told reporters. Communities in 37 states will be assisted in efforts to monitor for pollutants including particle pollution and smog, which both cause lung issues, as well as other substances including a carcinogen called ethylene oxide that’s used to sterilize medical devices. The monitoring will occur in both major metropolitan areas like Detroit and Miami-Dade County, Fla., as well as smaller areas and tribal reservations. Some are also in places that have become infamous for air pollution, including an area sometimes called “Cancer Alley” in Louisiana.
Indian capital battles dangerous levels of air pollution - -- Indian authorities on Friday shut factories and construction sites, restricted diesel-run vehicles and deployed water sprinklers and anti-smog guns to control haze and smog enveloping the skyline of the capital region. The Delhi government closed primary schools and restricted outdoor activity for older students as the air quality index exceeded 470, considered “severe” and more than 10 times the global safety threshold, according to the state-run Central Pollution Control Board. In NOIDA, short for New Okhla Industrial Development Authority, a city on the outskirts of New Delhi, schools shifted to online classes up to the eighth grade to meet the public health crisis. The haze enveloped monuments and high-rise buildings in and around New Delhi. India's Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav blamed the northern Punjab state, ruled by the opposition Aam Admi Party, for its failure to stop the burning of crop residues, a key contributor to the pollution, at the start of the winter wheat-sowing season. "There is no doubt over who has turned Delhi into a gas chamber," Yadav tweeted on Wednesday. The state's top elected official, Bhagwant Mann, defended himself by saying that his government took office only six months ago and that the federal and state governments needed to tackle the pollution crisis together. Sarvjeet Singh, a 48-year-old autorickshaw driver, said the smog was hurting his eyes and he was finding it difficult to breathe. "There are problems, especially in the morning. It’s difficult to drive my vehicle because of the pollution. My autorickshaw is open. It will affect us more than people in cars. We have to work, what can we do?” Rahul Azmera, 29, a software engineer who works in the United States and is visiting New Delhi with his parents, said, “I feel like if I stay here for one month, I would be hospitalized, definitely. That would scare me a lot.” “I feel a lot of heavy breathing here because of the pollution. I could barely see up to 100 meters (328 feet) or 200 meters (656 feet),” he said. A full closure of schools, colleges, educational institutions and non-emergency commercial activities, and a restriction on private vehicles, is being considered in case the pollution level does not come down this weekend, a government statement said late Thursday. The government advised children, the elderly and those with respiratory, cardiovascular and other health problems to avoid outdoor activities and stay indoors as much as possible.
Schools: 97% vote for Delhi Schools to be closed as Delhi NCR AQI levels worsen - As the AQI Levels of Delhi NCR regions worsen and reach the ‘severe’ mark, many students, parents, guardians and teachers have been demanding for the closure of schools. As per a poll conducted by Times Now, 97 of the respondents have voted for schools to close in Delhi NCR. While Noida Schools have been closed till Tuesday and ordered to shift to online classes, information regarding Faridabad Schools, Ghaziabad Schools, Gurgaon Schools and Delhi Schools are awaited. In a poll conducted by Times Now, around 97 percent of the respondents have voted Delhi schools to close down due to the increase in pollution levels.Rising pollution levels puts the health of students at risk, especially those with respiratory problems such as Asthma. Netizens have also taken to Twitter to demand the closure of schools. “Pathetic air quality in Delhi & NCR. High time, Schools should be closed in NCR region and online classes may be conducted for next 10-15 days. One should not walk or run also during such period!,” stated a user on Twitter.In Noida, schools have been ordered to close down schools and shift to online classes. As per a notice issued by the Gautam Buddha Nagar government, all schools in Noida and Greater Noida will remain closed till November 8. For students of Classes 1 to 8, online classes shall be conducted.While classes for senior students in Classes 9 to 12 may continue, the district government has urged to shift to online classes for senior students as well.An update regarding schools in Faridabad, Gurgaon and Delhi are awaited. Delhi Government hasimplemented the protocols for GRAP Stage 4 and an announcement regarding schools and colleges closing is awaited.The AQI levels have reached severe levels in Delhi NCR. Near the Delhi University area, the AQI levels were recorded to be 563. Faridabad, Haryana has also crossed the 470 mark. The AQI levels in Delhi currently stands at 437.
Delhi Schools closed for primary classes till air quality improves: Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal - Delhi Schools have been closed for primary classes! Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has announced today, November 4, 2022 that schools will remain closed for students of Classes KG to 5. Delhi schools will remain closed for these students until the air quality improves. As for students in Classes 5 and above, all outdoor activities and sports activities will be halted until further notice. The announcement comes from the Delhi CM as the AQI levels in Delhi reach the 'Severe' mark. Delhi Government has also implemented the GRAP 4 protocols. As per this, the government has now decided to close schools for students in primary classes (KG to Class 5). Students in higher classes would continue to go to school for their classes. In a joint press conference with Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann, Arvind Kejriwal has announced that Delhi schools would be closed from tomorrow, November 5, 2022. This announcement from the Delhi Government comes as the AQI levels continue to worsen. Delhi BJP Chief Adesh Kumar Gupta to Lieutenant Governor Vinai Kumar demanding the closure of schools. Chairperson of the National Commission for Protection of Child Rights, NCPCR Priyank Kanoongo also issued a notice to the Delhi government asking them to close Delhi schools due to the rising pollution levels. In Noida, Schools have been closed and asked to shift to online classes for students in Classes 1 10 8. Students from Classes 9 to 12 would continue to go to school, however, the state government has asked schools to carry out online classes for senior students as well.
Trash Gathered at National Parks Reveals Need to Speed Plastic Phaseout - From July 1 to September 30 of this year, more than 500 citizen scientists recorded the litter they encountered at national parks and federal lands across the country as part of the Plastic-Free Parks TrashBlitz. Now, the results are in and they indicate that policy makers need to speed up their timeline for getting single-use plastic off ofpublic lands.“As a result of the nationwide Plastic-Free Parks TrashBlitz, we have solid data that shows single-use plastic items make up the majority of trash escaping the waste stream and ultimately harming the health of our people, wildlife, and waterways in our most cherished landscapes,” 5 Gyres Institute Policy Director Alison Waliszewski said in a statement emailed to EcoWatch. “We must take immediate action to reduce plastic pollution at its source — by eliminating the sale, distribution, and usage of all single-use disposable plastics and investing in reuse infrastructure and sustainable packaging choices.”The Plastic-Free Parks TrashBlitz was a project of 5 Gyres and both corporate and nonprofit partners including Oceana, Plastic Free July, Break Free From Plastic and Klean Kanteen. It saw 558 volunteers join 44 cleanups at both national parks and other public lands like urban parks and national monuments, according to the report released Tuesday. As the volunteers picked up litter, they also recorded what they found. The results confirm that single-use plastic is a major problem at national parks, making up 81 percent of the 14,237 pieces of trash noted in the report. They also reveal that park visitors need to be more careful with their smokes and their snacks. Cigarette butts were the top item littered at nearly 4,000 found and 45 percent of the litter picked up was food packaging, with volunteers reporting 355 cups, 294 straws, 278 lids, 133 utensils and 91 plates. The report also recorded items by type and brand. The top 10 most commonly tossed items were:
- Cigarette butts
- Wrappers
- Plastic bottles
- Bottle caps
- Textiles like clothing and shoes
- Metal bottles and cans
- Cups
- Straws
- Lids
- Wipes
The top 10 most commonly observed brands were:
- Camel
- Marlboro
- Nestle
- Coca-Cola
- Nature Valley
- Gatorade
- PepsiCo
- Crystal Geyser
- Parliament
- Kirkland
The report also looked at 14,780 pounds of trash collected at the annual Yosemite Facelift cleanup event in Yosemite National Park. Based on a random sampling of the collected items, TrashBlitz volunteers found similar top offenders, with food wrappers, bottles, cigarette butts, bottle caps and textiles being the most common items cleared and Camel, Marlboro, Nature Valley, Parliament and Kirkland being the most littered brands.
Possibility Of Additional Outbreaks- Bird Flu Strikes Iowa Egg Farm With Million Hens ---The unseasonable return of avian influenza or bird flu continues to wreak havoc on the US poultry industry. Iowa agriculture officials announced Monday that the first infection since April was detected at a large commercial egg-laying farm, AP News reported. Iowa Department of Agriculture officials said the commercial farm with 1.1 million chickens in Wright County (central Iowa) just detected the highly contagious and deadly virus.All chickens at the facility were culled and disposed of to avoid spreading the disease. Iowa has been hit hard by bird losses this year, with more than 13 million killed. On a national level, 47.7 million birds have been affected in 43 states. Bird flu continues "to be a significant threat across the country," Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig told The Des Moines Register. He added: "We have been preparing for the possibility of additional outbreaks," working closely with producers and the US Department of Agriculture."With migration ongoing, we continue to emphasize the need for strict biosecurity on poultry farms and around backyard flocks to help prevent and limit the spread of this destructive virus." In late September, we noted there was concern that the fall migration of wild birds could spread the virus. That appears to be correct.
UK Orders All Poultry And Captive Birds Indoors Amid Largest Ever Bird Flu Outbreak - - Authorities in the UK have ordered all captive birds and poultry to be kept indoors due to concerns over avian influenza.The stepped-up measures from the UK's chief veterinary officer make the housing measures a legal requirement, and are accompanied by stringent biosecurity measures to protect flocks from disease, Sky News reports.The rules come into force one minute past midnight on Monday, November 7th, giving owners one week to prepare.It comes after the national risk of bird flu in wild birds was raised to 'very high', and the whole of Great Britain was made a bird flu prevention zone two weeks ago.Chief veterinary officer Christine Middlemiss said: "We are now facing this year the largest ever outbreak of bird flu and are seeing rapid escalation in the number of cases on commercial farms and in backyard birds across England. -Sky News"The risk of kept birds being exposed to disease has reached a point where it is now necessary for all birds to be housed until further notice," Middlemiss continued. "Scrupulous biosecurity and separating flocks in all ways from wild birds remain the best form of defence."All bird owners must follow the rules, whether they keep 'a few, or thousands,' she added.
A new tax credit for biogas could be a boon to factory farms -When Maria Payan’s son was screened for cancer, she knew he had to leave home. The Payan family lived in Delta, Pennsylvania, a rural community of fewer than 1,000 people near the southern edge of the state, bordering Maryland. Payan, a Pennsylvania native, said she wanted her son Michael to grow up in a small, idyllic community like she did when she was young, making Delta an attractive place to raise a family. Then the farm across the road changed hands and became a concentrated animal feeding operation, or CAFO, home to thousands of poultry and cattle, churning out a steady supply of manure and animal waste. “It just changes your entire life,“ Payan told Grist. “Kids can’t play outside. You have to call them inside with the level of stench because you understand it’s not just odors.” The proliferation of CAFOs across the country has harmed the quality of life for neighboring small communities for decades, with environmental groups now suing the Environmental Protection Agency over the agency’s failure to regulate groundwater pollution stemming from factory farms. When a farm produces massive amounts of animal waste, the waste must go somewhere. Generally, farms have pits of manure that hold the waste, uncovered and outdoors, which increase methane emissions and contribute to more ammonia in the air, as well as pollution from nitrates and phosphorus. The waste also contains hydrogen sulfide, a chemical that causes a strong odor and inflammation in the eyes, skin, and lungs.Some of these massive farms cash in on fuel from this waste, known as biogas.But based on this year’s historic climate legislation package, biogas is set to boom. The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law this past August, includes a sweeping $369 billion investment in various clean energy technologies and credits for consumers to purchase greener technologies. One of those industries is biogas, an energy source that captures methane emissions from large-scale farms. Biogas facilities, which are billed as a “renewable energy source” in the industry, will receive various tax credits and investmentsfrom this legislation, prompting industry leaders to look into expanding and constructing facilities across the country. “It’s almost giddy,” said Timothy Baye, professor of Business Development and State Energy specialist at the University of Wisconsin. “It’s like waking up not expecting Christmas and finding a Christmas tree.” Animal waste, like cow manure, and agriculture have been identified as significant contributors to the planet’s warming temperatures, with agriculture accounting for 24 percent of global emissions of carbon, methane, and other gasses. Over 100 countries have signed a pledge to cut global methane emissionsby 30 percent by 2030. Methane emissions also come from the fossil fuel industry and have seen historic rises in recent years. The biogas industry has grown exponentially over the past two decades, primarily thanks to California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which was adopted in 2006. The standard created a market for “low-carbon and renewable alternatives” to gasoline and diesel, driving new biogas operations around the country. According to the EPA, electricity generated from biogas more than doubled between 2010 and 2020. The IRA will give tax credits of up to 30 percent — the same investments given to large clean industries like solar and wind — to biogas facilities built by the beginning of 2025. In addition, this legislative package will also invest roughly $2 billion in the United States Department of Agriculture’s Rural Energy for America Program, or REAP, which provides loans and grants to farmers and businesses in the energy efficiency and renewable energy sector, which includes biogas facilities.
Scientists go to bat for Halloween's iconic, at-risk species - Federal agencies and their allies are reinforcing the fight against the scary and, yes, tricky disease that’s been wiping out bat populations.In this month of Halloween, the Fish and Wildlife Service is offering grant treats of between $50,000 and $300,000 to scientists researching what the agency calls “biotechnological tools” that might combat white-nose syndrome.All told, FWS will provide $1.5 million in this newest round of grant funding, which comes at a seemingly propitious time.“In short, I would describe the current status of WNS research as promising,” Jeremy Coleman, the agency’s national white-nose syndrome coordinator, told E&E News today, noting that “there are a few different tools in field trials now across multiple states.”These potential tools, Coleman added, include vaccines, probiotics, microclimate manipulation and ultraviolet light, while the new funding could “advance development of biotech-based tools targeting the fungus for more enduring solutions.”Pitching in, the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation last week announced $478,000 in grants to address the disease and promote bat survival.“White-nose syndrome is a challenge that requires novel and innovative strategies to improve survival and recovery of North American bat species,” said Jeff Trandahl, executive director and CEO of the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation.Caused by a soil-based fungus named Pseudogymnoascus destructans, white-nose syndrome was discovered in New York in the winter of 2006-2007. Since then, it’s been responsible for the deaths of millions of bats (Greenwire, July 17, 2017).The fungus invades the skin of bats. Infection leads to bats waking up more — and for longer periods of time — during hibernation and eventual depletion of the fat reserves they need to survive winter.Underscoring the dangers, FWS last March proposed that the northern long-eared bat requires heightened federal protection as an endangered species. The move acknowledges a deterioration in the condition of the bat, which was designated a threatened species in 2015.A lawsuit filed by environmentalists subsequently compelled the federal agency to reconsider the status of the species (Greenwire, April 1, 2015).“White-nose syndrome is devastating northern long-eared bats at unprecedented rates, as indicated by this science-based finding,” FWS Regional Director Charlie Wooley said in a statement earlier this year.“There is no known mitigation or treatment strategy to slow the spread of [the fungus] or to treat WNS in bats,” FWS said, adding that white-nose syndrome has “caused estimated northern long-eared bat population declines of 97–100 percent across 79 percent of the species’ range.”
Blue whales ingest 10 million pieces of microplastics per day, study says - — A new study from Stanford University found that blue whales, the biggest creatures on Earth, ingest about 10 million pieces of microplastics per day.Microplastics are tiny pieces of plastic debris found in lakes, rivers and oceans that come from the breakdown of larger plastics.Researchers discovered that blue whales ingest so much of the microplastics because they exclusively eat krill, a shrimplike animal.“The krill eat the plastic, and then the whale eats the krill,” Matthew Savoca, the study co-author said in a statement.Blue whales were found to consume the most microplastics because they are “50 to 250 meters below the surface, a depth that coincides with the highest concentrations of microplastic in the open ocean,” the study found.The research also focused on humpback and fin whales and found that those whales intake a slightly smaller amount of microplastics than blue whales because of the different foods in their diet.Humpback whales, which eat primarily fish, ingest about 200,000 pieces of microplastics each day, and fin whales, which eat krill and fish, ingest about 3 million to 10 million pieces of microplastics per day.The study also found that all the microplastics that the whales ingest come from their prey, not the enormous amounts of seawater they intake when trying to catch their food.Even so, these findings make scientists question if whales are getting the proper nutrients they need to survive. “We need more research to understand whether krill that consume microplastics grow less oil-rich and whether fish may be less meaty, less fatty, all due to having eaten microplastics that gives them the idea that they’re full,”
Hundreds of elephants, zebras die as Kenya weathers drought (AP) — Hundreds of animals, including elephants and endangered Grevy’s zebras, have died in Kenyan wildlife preserves during East Africa's worst drought in decades, according to a report released Friday. The Kenya Wildlife Service and other bodies counted the deaths of 205 elephants, 512 wildebeests, 381 common zebras, 51 buffalos, 49 Grevy’s zebras and 12 giraffes in the past nine months, the report states. Parts of Kenya have experienced four consecutive seasons with inadequate rain in the past two years, with dire effects for people and animals, including livestock. The worst-affected ecosystems are home to some of Kenya's most-visited national parks, reserves and conservancies, including the Amboseli, Tsavo and Laikipia-Samburu areas, according to the report's authors. Related video: Somalia facing widespread famine during worst drought in 40 years They called for an urgent aerial census of wildlife in Amboseli to get a broader view of the drought's impact on wild animals there. Other experts have recommended the immediate provision of water and salt licks in impacted regions. Elephants, for example, drink 240 liters (63.40 gallons) of water per day, according to Jim Justus Nyamu, executive director of the Elephant Neighbors Center. For Grevy’s zebras, experts urge enhancing provisions of hay.
Low waters on Mississippi disrupt crop shipments at key time - Low water levels on the Mississippi River continue to plague shippers of key farm commodities at the peak of harvest season, raising costs for farmers and exposing the weaknesses of other transportation routes. The Soy Transportation Coalition, a trade group, warned Thursday that the reduced capacity on the inland waterway persists just as soybean exports are about to hit their seasonal high. Growers and shippers are looking for alternatives, from putting soybeans on trains to sending some north to the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway, according to industry groups. American Commercial Barge Line, one of the large commercial shippers on the river, said barges on the drought-reduced Lower Mississippi are being loaded to no more than 9 feet, down from the 11- or 12-foot depths that would normally be the case this time of year. Those are the lowest water levels since 1988, the company said in a newsletter. Shippers that might normally tow 35 barges of grain might move only 27, according to industry groups, while some of the more powerful tugboats have been taken offline because they need depths of at least 10 feet. For the week ending Oct. 22, the Agriculture Department reported 365 grain barges moving downriver, or 49 fewer than the previous week. Reduced shipping capacity means higher costs for farmers, agricultural economists said, as well as higher costs for consumers as the expenses are passed along the supply chain. The situation also sheds light on longer-term challenges, such as maintaining the inland waterway’s channels and locks and supporting alternative routes, especially as drought driven in part by climate change becomes more of a regularity. Last week, scientists with NOAA predicted that the persistent drought keeping the Mississippi at “historic low-water conditions” would continue into the winter (E&E News PM, Oct. 20). “Folks can turn to truck and rail. These are more expensive and less sustainable modes for transporting grain long distances,” said Matt Ziegler, manager of public policy and regulatory affairs for the National Corn Growers Association, adding that those routes have been shaky because of labor disputes. Ziegler said growers worry that Mississippi shippers may trim the allowable depths of barges even more — to 8 feet, 6 inches, some shippers have warned — resulting in a reduction of 800 tons per barge from recent levels. Seemingly small changes in the depth, or draft, of Mississippi River barges can have a big impact on U.S. agriculture. USDA said more than 40 million tons of bulk grains moved along the Mississippi River locking system to the Gulf Coast for export in 2020. About 57 percent of U.S. corn and 59 percent of soybean exports, by volume, are shipped on the system, the department said.
Record High- 75% Of US Winter Wheat Suffers From Drought - La Niña has returned for the third consecutive winter, allowing for drier-than-average conditions across America's crop belt. Some farmers told Bloomberg that conditions are so dry that "fertilizer is evaporating from the soil, and plants are struggling to emerge from the ground." The odds are stacking up that this winter's growing season in the Midwest is going to be a bad one. The latest government data shows drought is intensifying across the western half of the US. As for winter wheat, nearly 75% of the crop areas are in a drought, the highest level in decades. Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Gary Millershaski, chairman of the Kansas Wheat Commission, said farmers who typically spread chemical fertilizer on their fields in the winter to allow the soil to replenish with nutrients ahead of the spring growing season are pulling back because of the fear it will just "evaporate and disappear." Millershaski also farms wheat and corn in the southwestern part of the state. He said he'd planted about 4,000 acres of winter wheat but only expected to harvest 1,500 because of the severe drought ... that's less than half. "When it is this dry you don't know if will sprout and die or come up next year," he added. The lack of moisture indicates that some plants may not even sprout until spring, jeopardizing yields. Mark Nelson, director of commodities at the Kansas Farm Bureau, has already warned that the rate of emerged plants is already falling behind average levels for this time of year. Widespread extreme drought could devastate winter wheat crops but, more importantly, disrupt farmers from spreading critical fertilizers on fields ahead of the next growing season -- this could dent harvests at the end of 2023. As a reminder, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs states, "El Nino and La Nina are naturally occurring climate patterns and humans have no direct ability to influence their onset, intensity or duration."
Wheat Prices Jump After Russia Exits Grain Deal; UN Races To Save Agreement - It's been two days since Russia suspended its participation in the Ukraine grain export deal after a swarm of drones targeted at least one Russian warship from the Black Sea navy. Wheat futures soared Monday as traders eye tightening world supplies following Russia's exit. Moscow immediately suspended its compliance with the grain deal, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was formed and launched in July and ended a five-month Russian blockade of Ukraine's ports. The United Nations and Turkey brokered the deal, allowing safe passage for cargo ships in and out of Ukraine's ports to haul farm goods worldwide.The deal was successful, as Bloomberg data shows Ukrainian exports via the Black Sea ramped after the agreement was signed in late summer. But what the Russian Defense Ministry describes as a "massive" drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol derailed all hopes of a continuation of the deal as Moscow pulled out. Charlie Sernatinger, global head of grain futures at ED&F Man Capital Markets Inc. in Chicago, told Bloomberg on Sunday that grain prices are headed higher. Sernatinger is right. Wheat in Chicago jumped nearly 8% to $8.9325 a bushel Monday morning. Andrey Sizov, a Russian grains analyst at SovEcon, told WSJ that many funds would have to buy into grain markets Monday to cover their positions. Corn, soybean oil, and soybean prices were also higher.Meanwhile, a UN spokesman said Secretary-General António Guterres was attempting to reverse the Russian suspension. Also, the Turkish defense ministry was trying to rescue the deal, according to WSJ.No grain shipments transited the Black Sea safety corridor for Sunday, though Turkey, Ukraine, and the UN agreed for 14 grain vessels to transit the Black Sea on Monday. What's difficult to forecast is just how much higher grain prices are headed if the safe-passage deal Russia guaranteed is suspended, with no plans by Moscow (thus far) to extend it. This may deepen the global food crisis and push tens of millions of people closer to starvation.
Lula Defeats Bolsonaro in Brazil, a Crucial Win for the Amazon Rainforest --A tense presidential election runoff in Brazil has led to a victory for left-wing candidate and former president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva against the far-right incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro. But as of Monday, October 31, Bolsonaro has not conceded. Lula is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 1, 2023. In the initial election, Lula earned 48.4% of votes, and Bolsonaro received 43.2%. With neither party taking more than 50%, the election went into a runoff scheduled for October 30. In the runoff election, Lula won 50.9% of the votes, while Bolsonaro received 49.1% of votes. Bolsonaro is the first incumbent president of Brazil to not win re-election. Bolsonaro has not yet conceded at the time of writing and has previously made statements regarding voting fraud, leaving some concern on the transition of power. “So far, Bolsonaro has not called me to recognize my victory, and I don’t know if he will call or if he will recognize my victory,” Lula told his supporters on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. During voting, truckers believed to be Bolsonaro supporters blocked highways. Nasdaq reported that in one online video, a person said truckers were planning to block highways and were calling for a military coup to prevent Lula from becoming president. According to Time, analysts say it is unlikely for military leaders to allow Bolsonaro to attempt a coup. The Guardian reported that a close ally to Bolsonaro, evangelical preacher Damares Alves, tweeted that “Bolsonaro will leave the presidency in January with his head held high.” Lula’s win is especially crucial for the Amazon rainforest. He hopes to designate 193,000 square miles of the rainforest with protected status, decrease deforestation and offer subsidizing for sustainable farms. He also hopes to form an alliance for rainforest protection among Brazil, Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia. During his presidency in 2003 to 2010, Amazon rainforest deforestation decreased. Comparatively, over 13,000 square miles of Amazon rainforest were deforested during Bolsonaro’s four years as president.
Lula’s victory in Brazil sparks optimism on deforestation, with ramifications for the world - The narrow win by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the Brazilian presidential election marks a key turning point on environmental issues, analysts say. Da Silva, commonly known as Lula, took 50.9% of the second round vote to incumbent Jair Bolsonaro's 49.1%, according to Brazil's election authority. The 77-year-old leftist campaigned on policies including exempting the lowest earners from income tax, raising the minimum wage and upping investment in public services to create new jobs. He has vowed to reduce poverty and boost economic growth, citing his record of doing so when he served two terms as president from 2003 to 2010. The remarkable political return comes after he was jailed in 2017 on money laundering and corruption charges that were overturned in 2019. "It's a significant change, I can't emphasize how much things will be different in this country with Lula's election," It also, Green said, "means a return to policies to save the Amazon." As well as containing 25% of the world's terrestrial biodiversity, the Amazon plays a crucial global role through storing billions of tons of carbon and releasing billions of tons of water each year. Lula used his victory address to pledge to combat climate change and deforestation — issues observers say have not just been sidelined but severely worsened under Bolsonaro's tenure. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon rose to an all-time high in the first half of 2022 and was 80% higher than the same period in 2018, the year before Bolsonaro took office, according to a report by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute. Bolsonaro has been criticized for enabling the proliferation of illegal activity in Brazilian rainforests — including land grabs and violence against indigenous people and campaigners — through funding cuts to on-the-ground law enforcement; slashing the national environment agency's budget; seeking to overturn environmental regulations; approving thousands of new pesticides; and appeasing the country's powerful agricultural businesses by failing to act on encroachment onto protected lands. Bolsonaro has previously said he was taking action to protect the rainforest; but he has also defended the expansion of mining projects, while also accusing foreign governments and the media of exaggerating the damage being done. In 2019, he told foreign journalists: "No country in the world has the moral right to talk about the Amazon. You destroyed your own ecosystems."
Will Africa ever see its 'Great Green Wall'? - Few climate adaption projects can match the sheer ambition — or unfullfilled promise — of Africa’s “Great Green Wall.”The United Nations-backed initiative, launched in 2007, aims to plant a 5,000-mile belt of trees across Africa’s Sahel region from Senegal in the west to Djibouti in the east.If successful, the human-constructed forest would sprawl across 603,000 square miles and slow the southward creep of the Sahara Desert toward what’s left of the Sahel’s grazing and agricultural economy.Advocates for the project, organized under the U.N.-sponsored “Growing a World Wonder” campaign, call the Great Green Wall “one of the most inspirational and urgent movements of our time … that will transform the lives of millions living on the frontline of climate change.”But 15 years after its launch, most of the Great Green Wall remains unrealized as funding promises go unfulfilled and the first planted forests wither under the very climate change impacts they were intended to buffer. Meanwhile, demand for wood for shelter and charcoal has created an even greater tree deficit.Only 15 percent of the project area has been restored, U.N. officials wrote in a recent status report to funders who have agreed to pay roughly 30 percent of the project’s cost, or about $16 billion.That doesn’t mean work has stopped; sponsor countries Senegal and Mali have continued to build pieces of the wall under a joint project known as the “Olympic Forest” that will plant 590,000 trees across nearly 5,000 acres of degraded forest and agricultural land.But funding remains a major issue. According to experts, the Great Green Wall needs an additional $40 billion through 2030 to meet its stated goals. And it’s an open question whether that money will materialize, even as advocates — including 11 African countries that will benefit directly from the Great Green Wall — make another plea at next week’s international climate conference in Egypt, where parties to the U.N. climate accords will chart a course for the future.
Ex-NPS chief wants ‘political football’ split from Interior - Jonathan Jarvis got an enthusiastic response at the White House in 2011 where he watched then-President Barack Obama sign a proclamation to create Fort Monroe National Monument, preserving a historic site in Virginia where the first enslaved Africans arrived in 1619. “You got any more of those?” Obama asked Jarvis as they shook hands at the end of the ceremony. “Yes, sir, I have a long list,” replied Jarvis, who served eight years under Obama as the 18th director of the National Park Service. While Jarvis helped create 23 new park sites during the Obama years, running the agency wasn’t an easy gig, according to a new book that offers a rare behind-the-scenes look at the inner workings of the park service. Jarvis used the book to tout his success in growing the agency but also to chronicle his experiences during decades of infighting at the Interior Department. His ultimate conclusion: the park service should be allowed to operate independently. Under the control of the Interior Department, NPS has become “a political football,” subject to the always-changing whims of the next presidential administration, Jarvis argued. And he said that’s hurting the country’s prized national parks. “Every four to eight years, we hand over the keys to our parks and public lands to political appointees at the Department of Interior who view the world through a commodity lens,” wrote Jarvis, who’s now the board chair of the Institute for Parks, People and Biodiversity at the University of California, Berkeley. Jarvis, who began working as a park ranger in 1976, teamed up with his brother Destry to write the book, called “National Parks Forever: Fifty Years of Fighting and a Case for Independence.” They urge Congress to free the park service from some of the never-ending politics by approving a new management structure akin to the Smithsonian Institution, with the agency overseen by a separate Board of Regents. “Instead of the NPS remaining the overworked and under-appreciated Cinderella of the DOI, we see a better, more independent future for the agency as a necessity if these places of national significance are to be conserved unimpaired,” the brothers wrote. Together, the Jarvises drew on a combined 90 years of experience to make their case. Jonathan Jarvis, who’s now 69, worked for the park service for 40 years — as a ranger, biologist and superintendent at eight national parks before becoming the agency’s director in 2009. Destry Jarvis, who’s six years older, began his work as a national parks advocate in the early 1970s and held leadership posts with the National Parks Conservation Association, the National Recreation and Parks Association and NPS, where he served as assistant director under former President Bill Clinton.
At least 5 tornadoes touch down during a severe weather outbreak along the Gulf Coast, U.S. - A severe weather outbreak hit the U.S. Gulf Coast on October 29, 2022, spawning at least 5 tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama. The NWS Storm Prediction Center received 10 tornado reports from Mississippi and Alabama. 3 tornadoes touched down in Mississippi’s Jackson County, each of them with maximum wind speeds between 160 and 175 km/h (100 – 110 mph).1 There were two documented weak tornadoes in Alabama, one in Theodore and one south of downtown Mobile, each with winds of 115 km/h (72 mph) or less. On Sunday, survey teams in Alabama, where several funnel clouds had been photographed or filmed, were still searching for debris. Vancleave, Mississippi was hit by a tornado that had a path of 2 km (1.25 miles). It destroyed trees, a house, and several outbuildings. A tornado that hit Moss Point had a path of about 4.5 km (2.8 miles). It ripped through trees before bouncing across a swamp and Interstate 10. The tornado damage at Big Point park measured at 1.6 km (1 mile). The only damage reported was to several light poles. The focus of active weather over the next couple of days will shift into the western U.S. as a rather potent cold front is forecast to move through the region, NWS forecaster Kong noted.2 A steady stream of moisture ahead of a wave of low pressure tracking along the front is already bringing moderate to locally heavy precipitation into the Pacific Northwest–with rain at low elevations and snow near the highest mountain peaks. The cold front itself is forecast to penetrate well inland, reaching into the northern Rockies and down through the Great Basin by Wednesday morning, November 2. The cold air behind the front will lower snow levels as the precipitation expands east through the Pacific Northwest today, and down into northern California and the Sierra Nevada on Tuesday.
The death toll caused by Tropical Storm “Nalgae” rises to 110, 33 people still missing, Philippines - The death toll caused by Tropical Storm “Nalgae” — known as Paeng in the Philippines — rose to 110 on November 1, 2022. 33 people still remain missing. Nalgae made its first landfall in Virac, Catanduanes at 17:10 UTC on October 28, followed by another landfall in Caramoan, Camarines Sur, just 30 minutes later. It then crossed the Bicol Region, exited into the Sibuyan Sea and made its third landfall in Buenavista, Quezon. The fourth landfall took place at 00:40 UTC on October 29 in Santa Cruz, Marinduque, the fifth in Sariya, Quezon, and the sixth in Baliuag, Bulacam on the same day. According to an update released by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) at 06:00 LT on November 1, the reported death toll has now climbed to 110, with 79 already confirmed.1 At least 101 people were injured and 33 still remain missing. Out of the 101 injured persons, 63 are now validated while 23 out of the 33 missing have been confirmed. 6 542 houses were damaged in Regions 1,2, 3, Mimaropa, Regions 5,6, 7,8, 9, 10, 11, 12, Caraga, BARMM, CAR, and the NCR. Of these, 5 035 were classified as partially damaged and 1 507 as destroyed. The validated deaths include 59 in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), 18 in Western Visayas, and two in Soccsksargen. Deaths still undergoing confirmation are 31 — 12 in Calabarzon, five in Eastern Visayas, four each in Western Visayas and the Zamboanga Peninsula, two in Mimaropa and one each in Bicol, Central Visayas, Soccsksargen and the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR). 741 777 families or 2 418 249 persons in 6 158 barangays were affected in Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, Soccsksargen, Caraga, BARMM, CAR and the National Capital Region (NCR). A total of 53 575 farmers/fisherfolk were affected and 58 086 ha (143 533 acres) of crops.
Tropical Storm “Nalgae” moving along the southern coast of China - After making 5 landfalls in the Philippines and leaving more than 120 people dead and at least 36 missing, Tropical Cyclone “Nalgae” is moving north-westwards over the South China Sea, towards the southern coast of China on November 2, 2022. At 03:00 UTC on November 2, its center was located about 225 km (140 miles) south-southeast of Hong Kong. At the time, Nalgae’s maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 85 km/h (50 mph), with gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 95 km/h (60 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure was 994 hPa, and the system was weakening while moving NW at 11 km/h (6.9 mph). Nalgae is forecast to continue weakening and downgrade to a tropical depression as it moves along the southern coast of China, including southern Hong Kong and coastal Guangdong Province. Authorities activated level four emergency for Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, and Guangxi in response to the system.1 Moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast through November 4 in southern China. Before affecting China, Nalgae made 5 landfalls over the Philippines, leaving more than 120 people dead and at least 36 missing. Flooding and landslides caused by heavy rainfall have damaged about 11 300 houses, 141 infrastructure buildings, and 57 000 ha (140 850 acres) of cropland.
Category 1 Hurricane “Lisa” makes landfall in Belize – The Watchers -- Hurricane “Lisa” made landfall near the mouth of the Sibun River, Belize — about 15 km (10 miles) SW of Belize City — at 21:20 UTC on November 2, 2022. Lisa had maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h (85 mph), making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale and the first November hurricane to make landfall in Belize since 1942. Lisa brought strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge to the region, leaving much of the region, including the country’s largest city – Belize City, underwater. A state of emergency was declared ahead of the landfall, with authorities urging everyone to stay in their homes or shelters until it’s lifted. Much of Belize City was left without power and drinking water, but there are no reports of major damage or casualties. Officials are still assessing the damage. At 06:00 UTC on November 3 (22:00 CDT, November 2), the center of Tropical Storm “Lisa” was located over northeastern Guatemala — about 135 km (85 miles) W of Belize City.1 It had maximum sustained winds of 80 km/h (50 mph), minimum central pressure of 998 hPa, and was moving W at 19 km/h (12 mph). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, bringing the center of Lisa across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche. Rapid weakening is expected to continue due to land interaction and Lisa is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression today. Even though the cyclone is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche in a couple of days, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear will likely prevent intensification, NHC forecasters Bucci and Brown noted.2 Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico during the next day or so. Water levels are likely to remain elevated in areas of onshore flow along the coast of Belize overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over Belize, northern Guatemala, southern portions of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico overnight.
Tropical depression Lisa reaches Mexico after landfall in Belize - Tropical Depression Lisa has crossed into southern Mexico one day after making landfall as a hurricane in the neighbouring country of Belize, where it knocked out power in the country’s largest city.Lisa moved into southern Mexico on Thursday, bringing winds of 55km/h (35mph) and warnings of heavy rains, flooding and mudslides from the US National Hurricane Center.“Lisa weakens to a depression but still brings heavy rains to portions of southeastern Mexico,” the center said on its website. The agency said that the storm could bring between 10 to 15cm (4 to 6 inches) of rain to the Mexican states of Tabasco and Chiapas.No deaths or major damage have been reported as a result of Lisa thus far. But the hurricane brought fierce winds of up to 120km/h (75mph) when it made landfall on Wednesday outside of Belize City, the country’s main commercial port, knocking out power and uprooting trees.“It is a scary experience,” said Angelica Escalante, who works in the town of Sand Hill just outside Belize City and expressed concern about her neighbours’ homes. “Their roofs might not be strong enough for this weather.”Authorities in Belize reported that some homes lost sheet-metal roofs as a result of the storm and that some flooding occurred.The Belize government’s emergency services also announced on Wednesday that a state of emergency was in effect through Thursday. Officials advised people living in vulnerable areas to move to shelters, noting that border crossings, ports and airports have also been closed. Lisa was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm on Wednesday as it moved across Belize and northern Guatemala, and has now been downgraded further to a tropical depression.
Lisa slams Belize as Martin becomes farthest-north November hurricane - The tropical Atlantic remains unusually busy for November, with forecasters monitoring multiple systems at a time when activity is usually tamping down.After battering Belize as a hurricane Wednesday, where it caused flooding and wind damage, Tropical Depression Lisa is raining itself out over southeast Mexico.Meanwhile, Hurricane Martin, fueled by unusually warm ocean waters, is sweeping across the North Atlantic as the farthest-north hurricane on record during November.When Lisa and Martin coexisted as hurricanes on Wednesday, it marked only the third instance on record of multiple Atlantic hurricanes during the month. Statistically, a November hurricane should form in the Atlantic just once every two or three years.Meanwhile, two additional Atlantic disturbances are being tracked by the National Hurricane Center because of their potential to develop over the coming days. The ocean surge, pushing waters up to 4 to 7 feet above normally dry land — engulfed many parts of Belize City, home to 57,000 people, where eyewitnesses described widespread flooding.“Much of Belize City is underwater. My hotel is completely swamped,”storm chaser Josh Morgerman wrote on Twitter on Wednesday evening.Light to moderate damage to houses and infrastructure was also reported.Farther inland, the storm unloaded 4 to 8 inches of rain. Downpours continued Thursday in some areas, and totals could reach 10 inches.Excessive rainfall — and areas of flooding — not only affected Belize, but also neighboring Guatemala and parts of Mexico.Lisa was downgraded to a tropical depression Thursday morning as it decayed over southwest Mexico. A remnant low-level swirl of the storm center may emerge into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a few days, but it is not forecast to gain significant strength.About 3,500 miles to the northeast of Lisa spins Martin in the North Atlantic. The mammoth storm has tropical-storm-force winds that extend 520 miles from the center.The storm is racing northeast at 48 mph Thursday afternoon with sustained winds of 85 mph. Sitting at 45.6 degrees north latitude, Martin is the farthest-north hurricane on record this late in the year.“No Atlantic hurricanes have been recorded in November as far north as Martin,” meteorologist Michael Lowry wrote Thursday morning in his Substack newsletter. He attributed Martin’s high-latitude strength to “historically warm sea surface temperatures in this part of the world.”Martin is expected to lose its tropical characteristic but retain its hurricane-force winds as it moves over colder waters over the next two days. Its remnants may eventually threaten Ireland and the United Kingdom by late in the weekend as a weaker but still windy tempest.
NHC tracking 2 tropical waves off Florida, Hurricane Martin, Lisa weakens -- The National Hurricane Center is now tracking four systems in the Atlantic basin, including two tropical waves off the southeastern coast of the U.S. The tropical wave closest to Florida currently has a 30 percent chance for development over the next five days. AccuWeather forecasters noted that areas from the Caribbean to the southwestern Atlantic could be a "trouble spot" for tropical activity in November. Any of the disturbances could evolve into a tropical system. The next named storm of the Atlantic season will be Nicole.Even if tropical system doesn't develop, pockets of heavy rain could affect the Atlantic coast of the U.S. by next week, according toAccuWeather.Hurricane Lisa made landfall Wednesday on the coast of Belize as a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.Lisa is weakened into a tropical depression late Thursday morning. It's continuing to bring heavy rain to portions of southeastern Mexico.While Lisa is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the NHC said it should not re-intensify.Hurricane Martin is a huge hurricane in the central Atlantic, with hurricane-force winds extending out 70 miles from the center and tropical-force winds extended 520 miles from the center.The storm could get slightly stronger over the next 12 hours, with the NHC forecasting winds to reach 85 mph.Martin is moving fast, at 48 mph, and poses no direct hazards to land. However, Swells generated by Martin will likely spread across the North Atlantic, bringing life-threatening surf and rip currents to the Canadian coast, Azores and Atlantic coast of Europe over the weekend. At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Martin was located 730 miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.Martin is moving toward the northeast near 48 mph. A turn toward the north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected this evening. Martin's forward motion is forecast to slow down substantially on Friday. A general east to east-southeast motion is then forecast by Friday night, which will likely continue through the weekend.Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph, with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles. Martin is forecast to become a very powerful post-tropical cyclone within the next few hours. Martin's peak sustained winds will likely begin to decrease on Friday, but it will continue to produce strong winds over a very large area well into the weekend.
Evacuations Ordered From Miami Beach Condo on Same Avenue Where Tragic Collapse Happened Last Year – Is the climate crisis catching up to the Miami Beach waterfront? On Thursday, October 27, an unsafe structure notice was posted on a 14-story oceanfront Miami Beach condominium, forcing its residents to evacuate in only two hours. “We don’t know exactly what’s going on inside there but we can’t stay. That’s it,” nine-year resident Samy Boschsaid, as AP News reported. But the incident may be reflective of a larger problem, as sea level rise and erosion intersect with aging, poorly constructed infrastructure. The evacuated building was on the same avenue as the Champlain Towers South condo in Surfside, Florida, which collapsed in 2021 killing nearly 100 people and prompting the largest emergency response in Florida history that wasn’t caused by a hurricane. The recently evacuated building is the Port Royale condominium at 6969 Collins Avenue, as NBC 6 reported. It is located a little more than a mile south of the site of the Champlain Towers South condo collapse. The evacuation came as part of the 50-year building recertification process. Around 10 months ago, an inspection turned up “areas of concern that we designated as a priority to be repaired,” Arshad Vioar said in an email to the Miami Beach Building Department reported by AP News. Repairs of those areas then started around four weeks ago, but the process revealed that one of the main support beams in need of work had shifted and a crack in it that needed to be filled had expanded, prompting the evacuation order for the building’s 164 units. “We take issues of building safety with utmost priority and won’t compromise the safety of our residents and visitors,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said in a statement reported by NBC 6 on Friday.Inspection Engineers Inc. said it was waiting on a permit from the city to install “comprehensive shoring” within 10 days, after which another inspection will take place, according to AP News.
Major winter storm hits Nunavut, Canada - The remote Northern Canada region of Nunavut was hit with a major winter storm on October 28, 2022, marking its first blizzard of the season. The storm brought winds in excess of 100 km/h (62 mph), significant snow, and blizzard conditions to southeastern areas of Baffin Island and nearby marine regions.1 A Canadian Coast Guard ship reported a wind gust of 94 km/h (58 mph) near Killiniq Island while Iqaluit saw 12 hours of blizzard conditions. City services in Iqaluit were suspended, including water delivery, waste management, garbage pickup and snow removal. The conditions improved on Friday evening. The storm hit just 5 days after a good portion of Western Canada was hit by the country’s first significant snowfall events of the fall, with multiple days of travel woes, power outages and road impacts across the Prairies.2
A Warming Siberia, Wracked by Wildfires, Nears a Crucial Threshold - Nearly 23 million acres burned from 1982 to 2020. But almost half of that occurred in 2019 and 2020, and the region may be near a threshold beyond which extreme fires become more common. Rapid warming of the Arctic has led to the extreme wildfire seasons experienced in Siberia in recent years, scientists said Thursday, and such severe fires are likely to continue.The researchers said that the Siberian Arctic, with its vast expanses of forest, tundra, peatlands and permafrost, was approaching a threshold beyond which even small temperature increases could result in sharp increases in the extent of fires.“Global warming is changing the fire regime above the Arctic Circle in Siberia,” said David L.A. Gaveau, one of the researchers. His company, TheTreeMap, monitors deforestation around the world.In the Arctic, wildfires can result in the burning of decayed organic matter in peat and thawed permafrost. That releases carbon dioxide, adding to warming and making the goal of reining in climate change more difficult.Over the past four decades, the Arctic as a whole has been warming about four times faster than the global average. Recent summers in eastern Siberia have been marked by particularly extreme temperatures — as much as 38 degrees Celsius, or 100 degrees Fahrenheit.The warmth has been accompanied by severe and extensive wildfires. “Observations indicated that the fire seasons were exceptional,” Dr. Gaveau said. “But there were no precise quantitative assessments to justify these claims.” He and his colleagues analyzed satellite data to map the burned area each summer from 1982 to 2020. Over that time, a total of nearly 23 million acres burned. The researchers found that together, 2019 and 2020 accounted for nearly half of the total. “The burning was much, much higher than in the last 40 years,” Dr. Gaveau said. The study was published in the journal Science. They then looked at factors that affect wildfire risk, including the length of the growing season (which results in more vegetation available to burn) and air and surface temperatures (warm conditions dry out the vegetation, making it easier to burn) and found that these have increased over the decades.Those and other factors “are causing what we’re seeing — an increase in areas of burning,” he said.In 2019 and 2020, average summer temperatures in the Siberian Arctic have been above 10 degrees Celsius, or 50 degrees Fahrenheit. Dr. Gaveau said that 10 degrees could be a tipping point, or threshold, beyond which wildfire activity greatly increases with just a small increase in temperature.“It’s worrying because predictions essentially indicate that the fires of 2019, 2020 will become the norm by the end of the century,” he said.
Asteroid 2022 UW16 flew past Earth at just 0.1 LD - (animation) A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 UW16 flew past Earth at just 0.1 LD / 0.00026 AU (38 516 km / 23 933 miles) at 10:16 UTC on October 29, 2022. This is the 101st known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the 19th so far this month, making October the month with the most detected <1LD asteroid flybys. It is also the second closest asteroid flyby in the month of October and the 9th closest so far this year. 2022 UW16 was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona on October 30, one day after it made its close approach to Earth. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 4.5 – 10 m (15 – 33 feet).
Large potentially hazardous asteroid detected hiding in Sun’s glare - 2022 AP7 - An international team of scientists reporting in The Astronomical Journal discovered a large Apollo-type near-Earth object (NEO) hiding in the Sun’s glare. Designated 2022 AP7 — this object has an estimated diameter between 1.1 and 2.3 km (0.7 – 1.4 miles), making it the largest Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) discovered in about eight years. The object is also in the top 5% of the largest PHAs known. 2022 AP7 was first observed at Cerro Tololo-DECam, Chile in the twilight on January 13, 2022. It was recovered using DECam a few nights later on January 16, 2022, using the asteroid short-arc orbit and ephemeris computation program (known as KNOBS) written by Tholen & Whiteley. Recovery occurred again using DECam on the nights of January 18, 21, and 23.1 After recovery a few weeks later using the Las Cumbres telescopes and the University of Hawaii 88 inch telescope, 2022 AP7 was found in data from 2017 in both the NEO Pan-STARRS and Catalina Sky Survey images, when the object was last near opposition, though far from Earth and thus faint. The orbit is thus very well known — based on an approximately 5-year observation arc. 2022 AP7 is an Apollo-type near-Earth object (NEO) that crosses Earth’s orbit with perihelion near 0.83 AU (124 million km / 77 million miles) and aphelion near Jupiter at 5.0 AU (748 million km / 464 million miles). The Earth MOID for 2022 AP7 is only 0.0475 AU (710 590 km / 441 540 miles), making it a potentially hazardous asteroid and likely the largest PHA found since 2014 based on absolute magnitude. 2022 AP7 was relatively faint at discovery being 20.8 mag, but because it was relatively far from Earth at about 1.9 AU (284 million km / 176 million miles) and distant from the Sun around 1.4 AU (209 million km / 130 million miles). It is a fairly large object, likely being well over 1 km (0.6 miles) in size assuming a moderate albedo (1.0 – 2.3 km / 0.6 – 1.4 miles diameter for an albedo of 0.25–0.05, respectively), the authors said. 2022 AP7 was found as it approached perihelion, which is when cometary activity is expected to increase significantly. No obvious coma or tail was detected in the discovery and recovery images.
Climate change rapidly accelerating in California, report says - Wildfires, drought, extreme heat and other effects of climate change are rapidly accelerating and compounding in California, according to a report from state scientists. The fourth edition of “Indicators of Climate Change in California,” released Tuesday, paints a stark picture of the escalating climate crisis and documents how global reliance on fossil fuels has had wide-ranging effects on the state’s weather, water and residents.Since the last update in 2018, weather extremes have intensified and become more erratic, officials said, and human health indicators such as heat-related illness, valley fever and wildfire smoke have gotten worse. Some of the changes are irreversible.“What we find in this report is a continuation and acceleration of the trends we’ve been tracking in earlier editions,” Amy Gilson, a deputy director with the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, told reporters. “It’s not just heat, not just water, but that they cascade and compound through the ecosystem, causing the impacts that we’re seeing.” The nearly 700-page report focuses on more than 40 key climate indicators and tracks the state’s actions in response. Though much of it is grim, officials said California continues to take “world-leading actions” that could serve as a model for other states, including measures to protect coastal waters, invest in renewable energy resources and phase out gas-powered vehicles. Rising temperatures were among the report’s starkest findings, with annual average air temperatures in California increasing by about 2.5 degrees since 1895 and warming at a faster rate beginning in the 1980s. Eight of the 10 warmest years on record occurred between 2012 and 2022, and temperatures at night have increased by almost three times more than daytime temperatures.The warmer conditions have affected water availability in the state by causingmore precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow, the report says. Extreme heat events and heat waves — both of which have increased in frequency — are also leading to more heat-related illnesses and greater energy strain in order to provide cooling. Low-income communities and people with underlying health conditions are particularly at risk.Drought conditions have also worsened along with heat, with 2000 to 2021 marking the state’s driest 22-year period over the last 1,000 years in what the report described as “an emerging ‘megadrought’ era.”One striking finding notes that two snowfields and one of two glaciers in the Trinity Alps disappeared by 2015, with the remaining glacier “arguably too small to be considered a glacier any longer” as of 2021. The state’s warming, drying climate is having a profound effect on wildlife and vegetation, including unprecedented tree deaths in California, the report says. An estimated 170 million trees died between 2010 and 2021, including about a third of the conifer forests in the southern Sierra Nevada.Vegetation is also more primed to burn, and wildfires across the state have increased dramatically over the last 20 years. Ten of the 20 largest wildfires since 1950 burned in 2020 and 2021, including the record-breaking August Complex, which surpassed 1 million acres in 2020 to become the state’s first “gigafire.”Also troubling are the secondary consequences of the state’s climate changes, such as declining populations of birds and mammals due to hotter, drier conditions. Warming river waters have contributed to such huge declines in Chinook salmon populations that they have been designated as a threatened species.“California’s biodiversity is threatened as alterations to habitat conditions brought about by a changing climate are occurring at a pace that could overwhelm the ability of plant and animal species to adapt,” the report says.Humans are suffering too, including through increased exposure to harmful wildfire smoke. During the record-breaking 2020 wildfire season, smoke plumes were present in every county for at least 46 days, the report says, and air quality particulate levels remained hazardous for weeks.The report also says occupational heat-related illnesses are increasing, as areincidents of valley fever, a fungal infection linked to dry soil conditions.
Climate crisis: UN finds ‘no credible pathway to 1.5C in place’. - ”There is “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place”, the UN’s environment agency has said, and the failure to reduce carbon emissions means the only way to limit the worst impacts of the climate crisis is a “rapid transformation of societies”.The UN environment report analysed the gap between the CO2 cuts pledged by countries and the cuts needed to limit any rise in global temperature to 1.5C, the internationally agreed target. Progress has been “woefully inadequate” it concluded.Current pledges for action by 2030, if delivered in full, would mean a rise in global heating of about 2.5C and catastrophic extreme weather around the world. A rise of 1C to date has caused climate disasters in locations from Pakistan to Puerto Rico.If the long-term pledges by countries to hit net zero emissions by 2050 were delivered, global temperature would rise by 1.8C. But the glacial pace of action means meeting even this temperature limit was not credible, the UN report said.Countries agreed at the Cop26 climate summit a year ago to increase their pledges. But with Cop27 looming, only a couple of dozen have done so and the new pledges would shave just 1% off emissions in 2030. Global emissions must fall by almost 50% by that date to keep the 1.5C target alive.Inger Andersen, the executive director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), said: “This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us all year through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and stop doing it fast.“We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster.“It is a tall, and some would say impossible, order to reform the global economy and almost halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but we must try,” she said. “Every fraction of a degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to ecosystems, and to every one of us.”Andersen said action would also bring cleaner air, green jobs and access to electricity for millions. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said: “Emissions remain at dangerous and record highs and are still rising. We must close the emissions gap before climate catastrophe closes in on us all.”
Emissions Gap Report Calls for Rapid Transformation of Societies -- Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), is blunt and brutal in her foreword to this year's Emissions Gap report: "This year’s report tells us that unconditional NDCs [nationally determined contributions] point to a 2.6°C increase in temperatures by 2100, far beyond the goals of the Paris Agreement. Existing policies point to a 2.8°C increase, highlighting a gap between national commitments and the efforts to enact those commitments. In the best-case scenario, full implementation of conditional NDCs, plus additional net-zero commitments, point to a 1.8°C rise. However, this scenario is currently not credible." The gaps are gaping between where we are, what we promised, and where we have to go. As for the promises made by individual countries—the NDCs—they are demonstrably not enough. "Neither current policies nor NDCs currently trace a credible path from 2030 towards the achievement of national net-zero targets."Headlines about this report are dire. The Guardian picks up a quote from the Key Messages memo and writes, "Climate crisis: UN finds 'no credible pathway to 1.5C in place'." It is a phrase that doesn't actually appear in the report and is taken out of context from the paragraph where it is found:"As climate impacts intensify, the Emissions Gap Report 2022 finds that the world is still falling short of the Paris climate goals, with no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place. Only an urgent system-wide transformation can avoid an accelerating climate disaster. The report looks at how to deliver this transformation, through action in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems."It is such a weird phrasing because the whole report is about laying a credible path, albeit a difficult one. Once again, we know what we have to do; what's missing is the will. Perhaps that's why, in a press release, Inger Andersen says it is so dire:"This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us, all year, through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and stop doing it fast. We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster." One of the most interesting charts in the report shows who is emitting the most. To nobody's surprise, it is the rich—and their emissions are growing the fastest. "The bottom 50 percent emit on average 1.6 tCO2e/capita and contribute 12 percent of the global total, whereas the top 1 percent emit on average 110 tCO2e/capita and contribute 17 percent of the total. Super-emitters in the top 0.1 percent (average 467 tCO2e/capita) and the top 0.01 percent (2,531 tCO2e/ capita) have seen the fastest growth in personal carbon footprints since 1990." Time for some major carbon taxes on private jets and fourth homes.
Nations Aren’t Doing Enough to Prepare for Climate Impacts, UN Report Finds - As extreme weather events this year from flooding in Pakistan to historic global heat waves make clear, the climate crisis is already with us. Yet nations are not doing enough to adapt to this new normal, especially when it comes to funding adaptation projects in the most vulnerable countries. That’s the conclusion of the UN Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report 2022, released Thursday ahead of the COP27 climate conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, from November 6 to 18. “Adaptation needs in the developing world are set to skyrocket to as much as $340 billion a year by 2030. Yet adaptation support today stands at less than one-tenth of that amount. The most vulnerable people and communities are paying the price. This is unacceptable,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement on the release of the report emailed to EcoWatch. “Adaptation must be treated with a seriousness that reflects the equal worth of all members of the human family. It’s time for a global climate adaptation overhaul that puts aside excuses and picks up the toolbox to fix the problems.” The report, subtitled “Too Little, Too Slow – Climate adaptation failure puts world at risk,” found that at least 84 percent of the countries that are Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) do have plans, strategies, laws and policies in place to respond to climate impacts, and this was up five percent from the year before. More than a third of these countries have plans with timelines and quantifiable goals and nearly 90 percent of these plans consider the needs of marginalized groups including women and Indigenous people. However, what is missing is the funds to realize these plans, especially in the developing world. To adapt, these countries need an estimated $160 to $340 billion by 2030 and $315 to $565 billion by 2050. Yet international finance for these countries reached only $28.6 billion in 2020. Currently, needs are five to 10 times higher in the developing world than the international community is funding, and this gap will only increase if nothing changes. Further, adaptation actions themselves are falling short of impacts. So far, adaptation projects have focused on the agriculture, water, ecosystems and cross-cutting sectors. But the world at 1.1 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels is already a world of increasing extremes, and this will only worsen. This year’s UN Emissions Gap Report found that current national climate pledges put us on track for 2.4 to 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100, and every tenth a degree of warming makes the climate crisis more dangerous.
Countries vowed to try to ramp up climate pledges this year. Very few have. - Last fall, at a high-profile global climate summit in Scotland, the countries of the world embraced what seemed like a significant commitment in the quest to combat climate change.Acknowledging that progress had been too slow, leaders agreed to “revisit and strengthen” their national climate targets if possible over the coming year — rather than waiting every five years, as envisioned under the 2015 Paris climate accord. .The push came as part of the effort to hold average global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, compared with preindustrial levels — a key threshold past which scientists have said disastrous impacts become far more likely.But as the world prepares to reconvene in Egypt this month for COP27, the annual U.N. climate change conference, almost none of the globe’s biggest emitters have come forward with stronger commitments. Few nations overall have ramped up their ambition, despite another year of floods, fires and other climate-related catastrophes.“Disappointing,” is how Claire Fyson, co-head of the climate policy team at the nonprofit research group Climate Analytics, describes the lackluster reality. “Few governments have really done anything to substantially move the dial.”According to the independent Climate Action Tracker, as of Thursday only 21 countries have submitted updated national climate commitments as leaders are set to gather at the summit, which starts Nov. 6 in Egypt — and not even all those newer plans contain more ambitious goals. Meanwhile, another 172 countries have not updated their targets, the group said.Only one large country so far has filed a plan that includes stronger, credible emissions-cutting commitments: Australia.“But Australia came from a very, very low baseline,” said Niklas Höhne, a German climatologist who created the Climate Action Tracker. “They have a lot of catching up to do.”In short, the momentum that emerged at last fall’s summit in Scotland has stalled, as other crises such as the war in Ukraine and rising inflation and energy costs have demanded the attention of world leaders.
Climate Minister: Until People in Developed Nations Start Dying, Nothing Will Change - I’d like to put two facts before you, one a data point, and one a comment from the climate minister of a moderately well-off African nation. Each is important, but put together, the whole becomes more than its parts. First the data point. Not long ago, I wrote a piece entitled “Everything New Is Old Again.” As the piece explains, we live our lives at an unusual time, “tucked between the start of a world-historical collapse and stories about it so old they sound not special at all.”Is there anything new in these facts? Yet here they come again, this time from the United Nations’ “Emissions Gap Report” for 2022 (hat tip Umair Haque):Policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century. Implementation of the current pledges will only reduce this to a 2.4-2.6°C temperature rise by the end of the century So:
- 1. Current policies that control the burning of fossil fuel indicate a global warming of nearly 3°C by the end of the century. And:
- 2. If every nation’s promise to reduce emissions were met — and few are even close — 2100’s global warming will be just 0.3 degrees less that it otherwise would have been.
Even if we were able to “dead-stop” fossil fuel emissions, global warming will continue well past the end of the century: Even if humanity stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, Earth will warm for centuries to come and oceans will rise by metres. The report explains: starting in 2150, the model has the planet beginning to gradually warm again, with average temperatures climbing another degree over the following 350 years, and sea levels going up by at least three metres. Under the second scenario, Earth heats up to levels that would tear at the fabric of civilisation far more quickly, but ends up at roughly the same point by 2500. To put this in kitchen terms, when you pull a roast out of the oven, the meat keeps cooking. In this scenario, we’re the meat. Yet while this is ho-hum news in the industrial, wealthy West, it’s a near-present catastrophe for the poorer rest of the world.From the Guardian:Nothing will change on climate until death toll rises in west, says Gabonese ministerGabon is one of the former French colonies on the west coast of Africa. It’s relatively wealthy for a small nation of less than 3 million people. It’s not a Pacific Island with 40 people and a boat. Nor is it Haiti (another former French colony), which seems always on the verge of collapse. Gabon seems to be taking pretty good care of itself. Yet the Gabonese know which side of the global wealth gap the climate bread is buttered on:The world will only take meaningful action on the climate crisis once people in rich countries start dying in greater numbers from its effects, Gabon’s environment minister has said, while warning that broken promises on billions of dollars of adaptation finance have left a “sense of betrayal” before Cop27 [the upcoming U.N. 2022 global climate meeting].And there you have it, straight from the helpless-to-intervene minister’s mouth — until the rich world start dying, nothing will change.
Egypt Crushes Climate Action At Home Ahead Of COP27 - The United Nations flagship climate summit is usually a lively affair. As well as drawing world leaders, scientists, even executives, thousands of activists travel to cities hosting the COP talks, staging colorful demonstrations to demand more urgent action, and holding events to raise awareness of specific issues. Not this year. Non-profit organizations and activists seeking to attend COP27 in Egypt’s remote seaside resort of Sharm el-Sheikh say they’ve faced unprecedented hurdles in getting accreditation and finding accommodation, potentially limiting civil society representation, and even hindering the outcome. The restrictions have prompted high-profile Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg, who’s expressed solidarity with Egyptian political prisoners, to skip what she called the “greenwashing” conference. Climate campaigners from developing countries such as Pakistan, where global warming significantly exacerbated this year’s record floods, have faced difficulties getting funding to attend. “The real voices and real struggle of people in Pakistan should be featured on stage,” said Pervez Ali, a 19-year-old Pakistani activist with Fridays for Future who, unlike many fellow campaigners, secured accreditation and funds to take part. “The small number of activists is going to affect the results, and the fair and free process of COP — if you’re not allowing activists who are suffering the consequences of climate change to tell their stories, if you’re blocking them, you’re hiding that reality from the world.” Egyptian officials say they are making efforts to ensure civil society groups can participate meaningfully, but the difficulties campaigners have endured offer a glimpse into the challenges local activists face in their home country daily. Demonstrations are effectively banned in Egypt and NGOs operate in a highly restrictive environment, their leaders often facing government pressure, trial, even imprisonment. The crackdown on civil society has worsened since President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi seized power in 2013, reversing democratic gains made during the Arab Spring uprisings, violently crushing protests, and rounding up political opponents. That has turned climate activism — like any activism in Egypt — into a perilous undertaking, according to a recent report by Human Rights Watch. Egypt ranks 168th out of 180 in the World Press Freedom Index. Despite a series of pardons this year, thousands of political prisoners, including both Islamists and secular critics, continue to be held in its jails, often in poor conditions and without proper trial, Amnesty International said. They include about 21 journalists, making Egypt one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists, according to Reporters Without Borders.
Report: Countries need an impossible amount of land to meet climate pledges - To reach net-zero carbon goals with their current plans, countries around the world will need 1.2 billion hectares of land, an area larger than the United States and equivalent to the world’s total cropland, for carbon removal projects. More than half of that land would need to be transformed into new forests. According to a new study, countries are over reliant on massive tree planting projects, and other land-based carbon removal schemes, to meet climate targets and avoid more effective measures like cutting fossil fuel use or conserving primary forests. The “Land Gap” report, compiled by 20 researchers around the world and released this week by Melbourne Climate Futures, is the first to calculate the massive gap between governments’ reliance on land for carbon mitigation and the role that land can realistically play given availability and competing needs. The report also highlights that using land for carbon removal via tree planting programs will have negative impacts on ecosystems, Indigenous communities, food security, and human rights. “There are assumptions that land can save you somehow from having to do deeper cuts in terms of fossil fuel production and use,” said Anne Larson, one of the authors of the report. “It’s distracting and it’s not going to work.” For years Indigenous groups have warned about the dangers of depending on forests to remove carbon from the atmosphere without clear guarantees of Indigenous rights. The report shows global climate pledges have the potential to put communities at higher risk of danger. Repurposing land for plantations and other tree planting-based carbon removal could push Indigenous peoples from their land ultimately weakening the environment. “We will lose everything,” said Levi Sucre, Bribri from Costa Rica and the Coordinator of the Mesoamerican Alliance of Peoples and Forests. “We have to figure out an alternative way to sustain our lands, our communities.” Tree planting has been shown to be a tenuous strategy to mitigate climate change, and part of the problem is the accounting system used to track carbon emissions. Cutting fossil fuel use is a guaranteed way to reduce atmospheric carbon while trees are unreliable: they take a long time to grow, need land that often isn’t available, can be harvested, or can even burn down. However, countries treat cutting fossil fuels and planting trees as the same. That means countries can make ambitious pledges based on future land use changes instead of jeopardizing short term economic interests by cutting fossil fuels. The report recommends countries make deep cuts in emissions from industrial agriculture, deforestation and fossil fuels instead of relying on unavailable land for carbon offsets. “We should really be seeing reductions and removals as two different things,” said Kate Dooley, one of the report’s authors.
Fossil fuel building boom imperils global efforts to confront warming ahead of COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh - The U.N. climate summit in Glasgow last year ended with a resounding repudiation of fossil fuels, with countries including the United States signaling that it would be a costly mistake to move forward with big new oil, gas and coal projects.The mounting calls to limit investment in such ventures seemed to resonate: Many major projects had stalled, struggling to line up financing as the world looked toward a future of cleaner energy.But a year later, the fossil fuel industry is experiencing a remarkable rebound, with sudden momentum behind more than 80 projects that range from coal-fired power plants to hulking gas export terminals, many of which could lock the world into decades of new greenhouse gas emissions.The backsliding is occurring as nations grope for alternatives to Russian natural gas, cut off by sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine. It will be a major point of tension at this year’s global climate summit, which begins in Egypt on Sunday. It throws the global carbon budget into further jeopardy, threatening to deluge countries with far more fossil energy than they need to replace supplies from Russia.“If all of that new infrastructure is built and used until the end of its lifetime, there is no chance of meeting the goals in the Paris agreement,” said Niklas Hohne, founder of the NewClimate Institute think tank and an emissions scholar at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, referring to the effort by global leaders to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avert the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.“The plan was not to build any new infrastructure, because everything new you build has to run for 20 or 30 years to pencil out, long past the point we want to be off fossil fuels,” Hohne said. “But now all these projects are on the table again.”This is true not just in Europe, where there are seven new natural gas projects under construction and another 33 in various stages of planning, according to the nonprofit Global Energy Monitor. Another two dozen projects also are being pursued in the United States. Global investment in new natural gas infrastructure is projected to surge to $42 billion in 2024, according to the market research firm Rystad Energy, a jump of 50 percent above what it is this year. The result is that the worldwide supply of liquefied natural gas will nearly double by 2030, a volume that climate activists warn pushes the supply past what is needed to replace Russian gas deliveries. Worries about filling the energy void created by sanctions on Russia have led European leaders to sign several deals for new gas contracts in sub-Saharan Africa — which Europe and the United States for years tried to dissuade from pursuing large-scale, climate-unfriendly fossil infrastructure over cleaner alternatives such as solar and wind power. Europe’s energy deals in Africa include accelerating plans to transform the nation of Mozambique, which until this year had never shipped natural gas to Europe, into a global hub for fossil fuels following the discovery of vast deposits before the pandemic. The global warming impact of the projects, many of which won’t come online for years, would be immense and would directly conflict with the ambitious short-term emissions goals Europe and the United States only recently set for themselves. The United States, which already exports more natural gas abroad than any other country, will be positioned toship nearly 50 percent more with the pending completion of just three projects that are far along in construction, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. While it is unclear how many projects in the United States and elsewhere will ultimately get all the regulatory approvals and investment needed to move forward, an analysis by the advocacy group Food and Water Watch tallies the potential climate impact if every natural gas project on the table gets built. By 2030, the “lifecycle footprint” — which includes the impact of extracting, processing and shipping it all, plus the greenhouse gas effects when it is burned for energy — would equal the emissions of 621 million cars on the road for a year. It would be like building 100 new coal plants, according to the group.
Greta Thunberg Calls COP Process ‘Greenwashing’ and ‘a Scam’ --When the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change opens November 6 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, one notable face in the climate movement will not be present. Nineteen-year-old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg said she would not attend the conference during a talk in London Sunday as she promoted her new book The Climate Book, The Guardian reported. She also criticized the COP process in general. “As it is now, the COPs are mainly being used as an opportunity for leaders and people in power to get attention when they say, ‘We’re going to change,’ and using many different kinds of greenwashing, lying and cheating and so on,” Thunberg said in an interview with journalist Samira Ahmed. Thungerg was speaking as part of the Southbank Centre’s London Literature Festival to promote her new book, as The Independent reported. The Climate Book debuted October 27 in many parts of the world including the UK, according to Green Matters. The book features more than 100 essays from climate activists and experts including Bill McKibben, Michael Mann and Naomi Klein, as well as essays by Thunberg herself. However, U.S. readers will have to wait until February 14, 2023 to get their hands on a copy.
Greta Thunberg Calls For "Overthrow Of Whole Capitalist System" - Climate activist Greta Thunberg has gone fully mask off and is now calling for the overthrow of “the whole capitalist system.” Thunberg made the extremist comments during an appearance on Sunday night at London’s Royal Festival Hall to promote her new ‘Climate Book’. Nicholas Harris from UnHerd was there to watch Thunberg outline her demented manifesto. Previously, she’d sold herself as a five-foot human alarm bell, a climate Cassandra. Her role was to warn, not to instruct: her most viral moments involved her scolding political leaders, not trying to supplant them. She strenuously avoided programmatic detail, saying such things were “nothing to do with me”. But now, on stage and in this book, she has found her political feet, specifically the Left-wing ideology of anti-capitalism and de-growth. Interspersed among the usual directives about the need to pressure political leaders, her message was more radical and more militant than it has been in the past. There is no “back to normal”, she told us. “Normal” was the “system” which gave us the climate crisis, a system of “colonialism, imperialism, oppression, genocide”, of “racist, oppressive extractionism”. Climate justice is part of all justice; you can’t have one without the others. We can’t trust the elites produced by this system to confront its flaws – that’s why she, much like Rishi Sunak, won’t be bothering with the COP meeting this year. COP itself is little more than a “scam” which facilitates “greenwashing, lying and cheating”. Only overthrow of “the whole capitalist system” will suffice. So now we are finally seeing the contours of Thunbergism. Run your eye down the contributors to The Climate Book and you can see who she’s been reading: Jason Hickel, Kate Raworth, Naomi Klein. For these people the climate crisis isn’t man-made. It’s made by capitalism, as are the other forms of social injustice which plague society. There’s no GDP growth – especially of the capitalist sort – without increasing carbon emissions. The only solution to this state of emergency is for rich countries to immediately abandon economic expansion as a social goal.
Carbon-Credit Fraud Assumptions Challenged In New Study -Voluntary carbon credits might not be as bad as widely assumed, according to new research from carbon credits ratings firm Sylvera. In an analysis of 337 million carbon credits intended to prevent deforestation, Sylvera said 143 million, or more than 40%, are “high quality,” achieving its top three grades in an assessment covering factors such as a credit’s contribution to avoiding or removing CO2, as well as the permanence of such actions. The findings are “contrary to popular belief that all nature-based projects of this kind are unreliable or fraudulent,” the company said in a statement on Wednesday. Carbon credits allow companies to continue polluting while funding emissions reductions elsewhere in the world. The controversial instruments are lauded by some as a key solution for fighting climate change, while critics, including scholars and activists, say the credits provide a vehicle for greenwashing, distract from meaningful climate action, and exploit vulnerable communities on the frontlines of climate change. Voluntary carbon credits, also known as offsets, represent a metric ton of reduced, removed or avoided greenhouse gas emissions, and are bought by companies and individuals to subtract emissions from their own accounts to declare improved environmental performance. The poor quality of many offsets offered on the market has invited skepticism. Credit Suisse Group AG has referred to the opaque, unregulated industry as a “wild west.”
Tech companies driving CO2 removal are in financial free fall - A handful of major corporations that founded the Frontier climate initiative have been rocked by financial and legal challenges, raising questions about their nearly $1 billion bid to remove carbon from the atmosphere.The valuations of four Frontier founders — Google parent company Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Shopify Inc., and Stripe Inc. — have collectively dropped by more than $1.5 trillion this year. The market capitalization of online payments platform Shopify and Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, have been particularly hard hit: Each has plummeted by more than 70 percent since the end of 2021.And global consulting partnership McKinsey & Co., the other member of Frontier, is under investigation for tax fraud in France and is facing corruption charges in South Africa.Taken together, the financial tumult battering the high-profile coalition for advancing carbon-catching technologies illustrates the danger of relying on corporations to fund climate innovations that scientists say are essential to prevent the worst effects of warming.Companies facing economic headwinds often consider spending cuts on initiatives outside of their core business, but they also “will weigh that against the harm to their reputation from backing out of a commitment,” said Bill Weihl, the executive director of ClimateVoice, who previously led the environmental programs at Facebook and Google.“My guess: they’ll keep this commitment, but just spend less on it over the next 2-3 years,” he wrote in an email, referring to the Frontier member companies. “Because they have another bottom line to think about — satisfying the expectations of their employees that they will be climate champions.”
CO2 pipeline developers, foes clash over landowner lists - State regulators across the Farm Belt are weighing approval of projects representing thousands of miles of new pipeline to move liquefied carbon dioxide from ethanol plants to sites in North Dakota and Illinois where the CO2 would be permanently stored deep underground. Before those key decisions come, however, utility commissions and local courts are refereeing preliminary disputes between pipeline developers and opponents over access to names of landowners in the path of the three multibillion-dollar projects. The companies — Summit Carbon Solutions LLC, Navigator CO2 and Wolf Carbon Solutions — have sought to keep lists of landowner names confidential. Environmental groups and other opponents want lists made public to help their efforts to organize. The dispute underscores rising tension over the proposed build-out of a regional network of CO2 pipelines and the broader debate over the role of carbon capture as a climate solution and use of eminent domain authority by private companies. With such high stakes, environmental activists and some landowners vow to keep up the fight for access to information in what they see as a David vs. Goliath battle with well-funded, politically connected developers. “It absolutely has affected organizing efforts,” said Chase Jensen of Dakota Rural Action, a South Dakota nonprofit opposed to the two pipelines that would cut through eight counties in the state. “Locally, people in a lot of these communities know their neighbors, so they’re checking in with each other. But when you’re talking about upwards of 450 miles [of pipeline] … connecting local pockets of people who know each other has been tough.” In Illinois, regulators required Navigator to disclose a 73-page spreadsheet of names of landowners within a half-mile from the proposed route. Omaha, Neb.-based Navigator said its $2 billion, 1,300-mile pipeline would gather and transport as much as 15 million metric tons of CO2 annually — the equivalent of emissions from 3.2 million cars — to a sequestration site in central Illinois. A spokesperson for Navigator didn’t respond to an email seeking comment. But the company’s arguments for confidential treatment of the landowner list is that privacy interests outweigh the public interests of releasing the list. The developer also said it wanted to “protect landowners from unwanted publicity and bothersome contacts” by agents, consultants and attorneys or by representatives of interest groups seeking their support, it said in a filing with the Illinois Commerce Commission.
Q&A: Advanced energy advocate says Virginia governor's plan ‘falls short’ - Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin caused a stir early this month when he released an Energy Plan that doesn’t mention climate change in its 35 pages, an about-face from the carbon emissions-cutting pillars initiated by his Democratic predecessor. That roiling continued at the recent Virginia Clean Energy Summit, where Youngkin provided a sweeping overview of an “all-of-the-above” plan that focuses on his guiding principles of reliability, affordability, innovation, competition and environmental stewardship. While listeners politely applauded his talk, many had already expressed their disappointment with Youngkin’s proposals to subvert former Gov. Ralph Northam’s signature efforts to advance a once-lagging Southern state as a climate leader. One of those critics is Kim Jemaine, who in her role as policy director at the Virginia chapter of Advanced Energy Economy, represents a broad swath of businesses statewide. She characterizes Youngkin’s plan as a “U-turn away from a cleaner and cheaper energy future.” The plan’s proposals would weaken the landmark Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA), a 2020 law to decarbonize the state’s grid by 2050; repeal recently passed electric car standards, and pull the state out of a regional climate compact. “It misses the mark,” Jemaine said, adding that it puts too much emphasis on hydrogen, small modular reactors and other nascent technologies instead of readily deployable renewables. “This energy plan falls short on finding ways to meet the five goals he laid out,” she said. “It sounds like something developed in a vacuum without consideration of the policies already on the books in Virginia. “It’s a means to undermine them. And that’s a missed opportunity.” Jemaine, 32, began working in Virginia’s energy and environment realm a decade ago. She earned her master’s degree at Regent University in Virginia Beach. After the Richmond summit, the Energy News Network talked with Jemaine about AEE’s stand on specifics in Youngkin’s plan. This interview was lightly edited for clarity and length.
In Nevada, a tribe and a toad halt a geothermal plant - After about a decade of grinding its way through the federal permitting process, Ormat, a geothermal company, was building a new power plant in Dixie Valley to produce renewable energy.“The millions of tons of carbon that we don’t put into the air have a positive effect,” Paul Thomsen, the firm’s vice president of business development, said in May as he shielded himself with his pickup’s door from the wind whistling through this sagebrush-speckled valley.But soon came another legal snag. The company halted construction in August while federal agencies meet to discuss whether the project should move forward. The rugged, remote corner of Nevada’s Great Basin region found itself at the epicenter of a confrontation between some of President Biden’s, and the nation’s, most pressing priorities: renewable energy, wildlife conservation and Indigenous rights.To tackle climate change, the United States must build new solar farms, wind turbines, transmission lines and other infrastructure at an unprecedented clip. The geothermal power plant could help meet Biden’s ambitious plan to run the U.S. power grid entirely on clean energy by 2035.But climate change is also fueling an extinction crisis. To protect species from vanishing, as well as to respond to Native Americans’ sovereignty claims, Biden also promised to safeguard nearly a third of the nation’s land and water from development.The new geothermal plant would tap some of the same underground heat that provides habitat for a rare toad found nowhere else on Earth. And for the first people to populate Nevada, the hot springs represent an ancient and sacred healing place that would be unimaginable to lose.“We don’t have a church that’s in a building, like a Catholic church or a Mormon church or a Presbyterian church,” said Leanna Hale, land and water resources director for the Fallon Paiute Shoshone Tribe, as she walked down the road near the plant site. Hale’s tribe has sued to stop plant construction and has asked the administration to protect this area from further development. “This is our church.”Now, Democratic leaders in Congress are trying to advance a bill to accelerate permit approvals for energy projects as part of a broader climate and health-care deal with Joe Manchin III (D). The senator from West Virginia pulled his proposal from a must-pass government operations bill last month in the face of opposition from some Republicans and fellow Democrats.At the same time, environmentalists and tribes are pressing the Biden administration to begin land and water protections at Dixie Valley and elsewhere.The administration’s decision could affect not just Ormat’s plans and this patch of Nevada but also projects and landscapes across the country.
Federal landlord phasing out fossil fuel equipment - The federal government’s real estate management agency is working on going fossil fuel-free.The General Services Administration announced Thursday that Inflation Reduction Act funding will not be used to install fossil fuel-based equipment at any of its 1,500 buildings across the country. That includes natural gas boilers, industrial pumps or chillers.The pledge reflects the Biden administration’s push to infuse climate policies at agencies that are not traditionally considered energy- or climate-related — from the GSA to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Internal Revenue Service. GSA has committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by midcentury.“This isn’t a pipe dream,” said GSA Administrator Robin Carnahan. “It’s an actual plan, and we have the momentum and the money to make it happen.”The Inflation Reduction Act allotted $3.4 billion to GSA, which the agency will spend through its Federal Buildings Fund. The program includes support for sustainable building materials and converting federal facilities to high-performance green buildings.Historically, when GSA has had to replace a broken piece of equipment like a chiller, the agency has gotten a similar chiller. The new approach will promote the use of newer, greener technologies.“By committing that none of GSA’s IRA dollars will go to locking in new fossil fuel equipment, we break that cycle and create demand for clean energy technologies,” said Jetta Wong, senior GSA adviser on climate.
U.S., UAE sign $100 billion strategic partnership deal for clean energy investment — The United States and United Arab Emirates on Tuesday announced the signing of a strategic partnership that will see $100 billion mobilized to develop 100 gigawatts of clean energy by 2035. The deal, signed during the Adipec energy conference in Abu Dhabi, is entitled the "Partnership for Accelerating Clean Energy" (PACE) and encompasses four main pillars: the development of clean energy innovation and supply chains, managing carbon and methane emissions, nuclear energy, and industrial and transport decarbonization. "The cooperation comes within the framework of the close friendship between the UAE and the United States of America" and "affirms the commitment of both sides to work to enhance energy security and advance progress in climate action," according to a UAE government statement published by state news agency WAM. The White House described the new partnership as a major achievement for President Joe Biden's climate agenda. "Today President Biden again demonstrated his deep commitment to ensuring a global clean energy future and long-term energy security as the United States and United Arab Emirates announced a robust partnership to ensure the swift and smooth transition toward clean energy and away from unabated fossil fuels," the White House statement said. The two countries will set up an "expert group" to "identify priority projects, remove potential hurdles, and measure PACE's progress in achieving its goal of catalyzing $100 billion in financing, investment, and other support and deploying globally 100 gigawatts of clean energy," it said. The UAE is a major oil exporter but has invested heavily in developing non-fossil fuel energy sources, including building the world's largest single-site solar power plant and the first nuclear power plant in the Arab world. It plans to host the COP 28 climate summit in 2023.
Chevron, Algonquin partner on Permian Basin solar facility -- Multinational oil producer Chevron is venturing into renewable power through a partnership with Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.The two companies recently hosted corporate and New Mexico leaders at Chevron’s Hayhurst Solar Power Facility in Eddy County, New Mexico, that will generate renewable energy for oil and gas operations in the Permian Basin.The Chevron-Algonquin Renewable Power Initiative is in the early stages of construction, and when completed, will be the largest solar facility in Eddy County. The facility sits on 133 acres on state trust land managed by the New Mexico State Land Office. When complete, this solar facility will include 56,000 solar panels, six inverter stations with transformers that will produce 20 megawatts (MW) of renewable power for Chevron’s upstream operations. Chevron teamed with Algonquin, a company with experience in developing renewable energy, in 2020 to construct renewable energy sources to provide electricity to certain assets. The renewable energy generated by the solar panels will replace energy Chevron currently gets from the grid during the day, freeing that up for other uses and decreasing the carbon intensity of operations. Energy from the solar field will power the Hayhurst New Mexico development area’s field load. This field includes an electric compressor station that compresses gas out of the field and sends it to the pipeline for transmission.
In Court, the Maryland Public Service Commission Quotes Climate Deniers and Claims There’s No Such Thing as ‘Clean’ Energy - Maryland’s Office of People’s Counsel (OPC) has asked a state circuit court to order the Maryland Public Service Commission to investigate a gas utility company for deceiving its customers by falsely claiming that natural gas is cleaner than electric power and undermining the state’s goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The disagreement emerged when OPC, an independent state agency that represents the interests of utility ratepayers before the PSC, filed a complaint with the commission, saying that Washington Gas customers received bills last fall that included deceptive marketing statements about the “environmental benefits” of natural gas. “Natural gas is a clean, efficient, and reliable energy. Converting an all-electric home to natural gas is equivalent of 2.75 acres of trees or driving 26,520 fewer miles each year,” the Washington Gas bills said. “In addition, natural gas costs 1/3 less than electric, which makes it a smart decision for the environment and your wallet.” Refuting the Washington Gas claims, the OPC said in its initial complaint against the commission that natural gas is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions and its “production and consumption in the United States emits more than 1,500 million metric tons of CO2—about one-third of the United States’ total annual CO2 emissions.” Residential usage of natural gas accounted for almost 5 percent of annual U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, the OPC’s complaint said. The marketing statement falsely implied that natural gas use did not result in significant greenhouse gas emissions, the OPC said, and misled consumers about other emissions attributes of natural gas. “Despite the well-known fact that natural gas production, distribution, and consumption are major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, the marketing statements contain no substantiating or contextual information to qualify the environmental claims,” the OPC said. Before filing its motion for judicial review, the OPC asked the commission to direct Washington Gas and its affiliate, WGL Energy, to immediately remove the misleading marketing claim from bills, impose penalties of at least $500,000 on each of the two companies, and investigate their billing practices. Andre Francis, director of strategic communication for Washington Gas, in a written statement said: “The Maryland Public Service Commission exercised authority granted by the General Assembly to dismiss the Office of People’s Counsel deceptive marketing complaint as legally insufficient. OPC has appealed that dismissal to the Montgomery County Circuit Court. Washington Gas does not comment on active litigation.” A study by the Environmental Protection Agency found that “massive amounts” of methane leaking from “each piece of equipment” in the natural gas industry meant that global warming could not be reduced by replacing coal and oil fuels with natural gas. Another study by the Environmental Defense Fund—a national nonprofit—showed that methane leaks from 2012 to 2018 in the U.S. were 60 percent higher than the government’s estimate.
Almost 25% of U.S. Electrical Generation Came From Renewables in the First Two-Thirds of 2022 - Renewable sources of energy — like wind, solar, hydropower and geothermal — have a much lower impact on the environment than fossil fuels like coal and gas and are a source of unlimited power. The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is important to limit the amount of global warming and mitigate the climate crisis.Renewable sources of electric power saw increases in the first two-thirds of this year, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In the first eight months of 2022, nearly a quarter of electric power generation in the U.S. came from clean energy sources, reported Electrek.The EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report through August of this year showed that the generation of electric power in the U.S. provided by renewables was 23.3 percent, up from 20.6 percent for the previous year.“These latest statistics suggest that renewables may well be on track to surpass EIA’s forecast for renewables to provide 22% of US electrical generation in 2022 and 24% in 2023,” said Ken Bossong, the executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign, the nonprofit educational and research organization that reviewed the EIA’s latest report, as Solar Power World reported. “Bolstered by the Inflation Reduction Act, renewables’ share could easily surpass 25% by the end of next year.”In the first two-thirds of 2022, the electrical output of renewables, including small-scale solar, was up by 17.5 percent, reported Electrek.The generation of electricity through wind was up 22 percent and made up 10 percent of the total electrical output for the first two-thirds of 2022. Solar sources increased by 26.9 percent and accounted for five percent of the country’s total output of electricity. Hydropower was up 10.5 percent and made up 6.7 percent of total electrical output. Geothermal saw an increase of 0.7 percent. Electricity from wood and other biomass sources decreased by 2.1 percent.Altogether, renewable sources of energy outpaced coal by 17.9 percent and nuclear by 32.3 percent. In the course of the past five years, renewables have jumped from fourth into second place, while coal and nuclear have slid into third and fourth place, respectively. Half a decade ago, the amount of electricity that came from coal was 30.3 percent, while 19.6 percent came from nuclear sources. Now, these sources have fallen to 19.8 percent and 17.6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, clean sources of power have gone up from 18.2 percent to 23.3 percent.
Clean energy deployments tumble 22% in Q3 to 3-year low as delayed projects rise to 36 GW: report - Clean energy developers brought just 3.4 GW of new capacity online in the third quarter of this year, the least in three years, according to a new report from American Clean Power, which advocates for energy transition policies.Project delays accelerated during the third quarter, ACP said, in large part due to difficulties developers had in procuring solar panels. There were 14 GW delayed in the third quarter, and the total backlog of delayed projects now totals 36 GW. More than 60% of delayed projects are solar, according to the report. Interconnection challenges and the previous phase-down schedule of the production tax credit also slowed developement, according to the report. Despite the decline, the report says clean energy investments spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act will likely reverse the slide. Third-quarter installations were down 22% from the same period last year, according to ACP. Year-to-date installations of 14.2 GW are down 18% relative to the same period in 2021. Land-based wind installations declined the most, at 78% quarter-over-quarter. Solar installations fell 23%. Only battery storage installations posted growth, at 227%. Looking ahead, ACP says the Inflation Reduction Act “is set to catalyze clean energy growth, ultimately more than tripling annual installations of wind, solar and battery storage by the end of the decade.” The group said it anticipates the growth in clean energy development will deliver 550 GW of new projects by 2030. The bill, passed by lawmakers in August, includes $369 billion in energy and climate spending and contains major tax credit provisions to spur emissions-free energy, electric vehicles and clean hydrogen. Some analysts have speculated the Inflation Reduction Act could raise clean energy prices, however. “The IRA aims to achieve many goals over the next decade, like reducing emissions at an accelerated rate. However, its name may become a misnomer if investment surges while supply chains remain constrained, fueling inflation,” according to a BofA Global Research report issued in September.
Xcel Energy ends plan for Unaweep Canyon pumped storage hydro - Xcel Energy has killed its plan to build a hydropower project in Unaweep Canyon. The utility on Wednesday morning told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that it was withdrawing its application for a preliminary permit for a two-reservoir, pumped-storage hydropower plant in the rural western Colorado Unaweep Canyon. The commission on Tuesday had accepted Xcel’s Public Service Company of Colorado preliminary permit application, giving the utility the ability to further study the controversial plan. Several hours after the filing on Wednesday, Xcel spokeswoman Michelle Aguayo emailed a statement saying the utility had identified “multiple concerns” in Unaweep Canyon and the location “is no longer being considered.”Homeowners and residents in the canyon applauded the decision. Xcel in August 2021 quietly filed an application for a preliminary permitfor a pumped-storage hydropower plant in the canyon. The utility, which is working to be completely free from burning fossil fuels to generate electricity by 2050, was hoping the hydropower plant could generate up to 800 megawatts of electricity, enough to power about 326,000 homes for 8 to 10 hours.The utility proposed spending as much as $1.6 billion to build two 5,912 acre-foot reservoirs connected by a 4,900-foot pipeline that would be 22 feet in diameter. Water from the reservoir on top of the mesa would tumble down the pipeline, through turbines that would generate electricity. The power would be sent through 24 miles of new transmission lines to a substation in Grand Junction. Pumping the water back up to the top reservoir when electrical supplies are highest spends more power than the turbines generate, but the power from the pumped-storage project would generate electricity on demand when other renewable sources like wind and solar are ebbing. Xcel Energy told canyon residents at a community meeting earlier this year that it had studied several possible locations for its second pumped storage hydro project in Colorado and Unaweep Canyon was the only place where the project would work.
Transmission impossible: Are Democrats punting on permitting reform? - Massachusetts has to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the deadline the United Nations says is consistent with a livable planet, under a sweeping climate law signed by the state’s Republican governor last year. In order to do that, the Bay State plans to pipe in hydroelectric power from Canada. But the project has run into a roadblock: stiff opposition from the nearby state of Maine. Last year, Maine voters rejected the buildout of a proposed transmission line, which would run through its western flank and carry power from dams in Quebec to customers in Massachusetts. As a result, the clean energy project is stalled, maybe indefinitely — the most recent legal setback occurred last week — and Massachusetts’ effort to wean itself off of fossil fuels has suffered a serious blow. New England Clean Energy Connect, as the troubled Massachusetts project is called, is representative of a larger issue: Building new infrastructure in this country is a torturously slow process that often gets slowed down further by community opposition and legal challenges. Renewable and clean energy projects are particularly vulnerable to delay. Unlike natural gas pipelines, which are under the authority of an independent federal agency called the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, transmission lines are at the mercy of the states they run through. As more states commit to new climate plans, more interstate transmission lines like the one Massachusetts is fighting to build will have to crisscross the United States. There are precious few other ways to get clean power from renewable sources like wind and solar farms, geothermal plants, and hydroelectric dams, often sited in rural areas, to the dense urban centers that want to plug into it. Congress could speed up transmission construction by becoming the ultimate referee on interstate power lines, but so far lawmakers have declined to step into that role. The issue has taken on new urgency ahead of the midterm elections, which could wrest congressional control away from Democrats and shake up the power dynamics in Washington. If Democrats can’t figure out a way to reform the permitting process before the end of the year, they may not get a chance to revisit it for a long time. Meanwhile, experts predict that interstate squabbling over where transmission lines can go and who should shoulder their costs will continue to jeopardize new renewable energy projects as the nation scrambles to pump its patchwork of power grids full of renewable energy and make the tardy transition away from fossil fuels. “If you have an interstate transmission line, any state that that line is going through can veto the project,” John Larsen, who leads U.S. energy system and climate policy research for the independent research firm the Rhodium Group, told Grist. “It happens all the time.” The ease with which a state can nix another state’s transmission line could derail the nation’s green aspirations and evenundermine the historic climate change bill Congress passed in August, the Inflation Reduction Act. The Rhodium Groupestimates that nearly a quarter of the emissions reductions that are expected to take place by 2030 won’t come to fruition if no new transmission is built in the U.S. Other groups say the climate bill would take an even bigger hit without reforms that shorten the review processes for renewable energy projects and spur the construction of new transmission lines.
Energy prices threaten Mass. offshore wind project - A Massachusetts offshore wind farm says it may not be viable without changes to a power contract with the state, citing escalating global energy costs and a supply chain crisis that could chill the fledgling market as it prepares to raise turbines in the U.S. Avangrid Renewables said its proposed Commonwealth Wind farm off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard “would not be able to move forward” without changes to a power purchase agreement filed earlier this year that locks in how much Massachusetts’ utilities will pay the wind developer for the electricity it generates, a critical detail in securing financing for the wind farm. Now, it may want to renegotiate. In a filing with the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) on Oct. 21, the company asked for a one-month freeze on the state’s review of its previously filed power purchase agreement, citing “unprecedented commodity price increases, interest rate hikes, and supply shortages” as factors affecting whether the wind farm “remains economic and whether it can be financed under current terms.” Avangrid’s warning — echoed in part days later by Mayflower Wind, the developer of the state’s other upcoming offshore wind project — is the strongest signal yet that a chilling trend on renewable energy projects may migrate into the offshore wind sector. “The overall environment, not just for offshore wind, is very much so focused on these macroeconomic issues and how this is affecting the ability for projects to move forward,” said Chelsea Jean-Michel, a wind analyst for Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Energy costs and supply chain constraints have bogged down the global economy — collateral damage in the wake of the yearslong Covid-19 pandemic. The Russian war against Ukraine has also upended the global oil market, lifting fuel costs around the world and driving up inflation, with a depressing impact on many clean energy projects in the pipeline. The offshore wind sector has been somewhat shielded from immediate impacts, due to the long runway for projects — only two offshore wind projects are currently approved for construction in the U.S., though more than a dozen are seeking a federal green light. Wind developers enjoy a politically favorable position right now. Growing offshore wind is a priority for the Biden administration, which has committed to lifting 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030. It’s also key to many state goals, including Massachusetts’ target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Commonwealth and Mayflower — developed by Shell New Energies US LLC and Ocean Winds North America — could generate up to 1.6 GW of power and offset 2.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, according to the state.
Wind Turbine Orders Fall in EU, Putting Climate Goals at Risk --According to a report by wind association WindEurope, orders for onshore wind turbines in the EU have fallen to 36 percent in the third quarter of 2022, compared with the same time last year, putting climate targets at risk, reported Energy Live News. The decline was attributed to lagging permit processing, cost pressures from inflation and instability in the EU’s electricity market, the authors of the report said. The most orders came from Finland, with approximately 322 megawatts, followed by Sweden and Germany. “This brings total orders in 2022 to 7.7 GW — far off from what Europe needs to reach its energy and climate targets. The EU wants 510 GW of wind energy by 2030. This means the wind industry should install 39 GW of new wind each year up to 2030. At the current rate of turbine orders Europe would fall well short of this target,” WindEurope reported. WindEurope has encouraged governments to speed up the expansion of wind energy capacity if their climate goals are to be met, reported Energy Live News. “The rapid deployment of wind energy has never been more urgent — for energy security, for the climate, and for affordable energy prices. This requires a step change in EU policy: to accelerate permitting of new projects, give renewables investors visibility, and strengthen and expand [] the European wind supply chain,” WindEurope said. The rise in costs for wind turbine components, raw materials and international shipping have been affecting the industry, reported Power Engineering International. The wind energy supply chain also continued to be impacted by a market that isn’t sufficient in size.
Germany Is Dismantling A Wind Farm To Make Way For A Coal Mine - A wind farm is being dismantled in western Germany to make way for an expansion of an open-pit lignite coal mine in a “paradoxical” situation highlighting the current prioritization of energy security over clean energy in Europe’s biggest economy. The dismantling of at least one wind turbine at the wind farm close to the German coal mine Garzweiler, operated by energy giant RWE, has already started. RWEsays that lignite, or brown coal, has been mined from the Garzweiler coalfields for over 100 years.RWE also said at the end of September that three of its lignite-fired coal units that were previously on standby would return to the electricity market on schedule in October.“The three lignite units each have a capacity of 300 megawatts (MW). With their deployment, they contribute to strengthening the security of supply in Germany during the energy crisis and to saving natural gas in electricity generation,” RWE said last month.Now the company is expanding the lignite mine at Garzweiler after a court in Münster in the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia ruled in favor of the energy group in a land dispute in March this year to expand the lignite mine.Commenting on the dismantling of wind turbines to make way for expanding a coal mine, Guido Steffen, a spokesperson for RWE, told the Guardian, “We realise this comes across as paradoxical.”“But that is as matters stand,” Steffen added.Earlier this week, the ministry for economic and energy affairs of the state of North-Rhine Westphalia urged RWE to abandon the plan to dismantle the wind farm.“In the current situation, all potential for the use of renewable energy should be exhausted as much as possible and existing turbines should be in operation for as long as possible,” a spokesperson for the state’s ministry told the Guardian.
EU to Ban New Combustion Engine Cars Starting 2035 -- The European Union has come to an agreement deal to ban sales of new combustion engine cars and vans that run on gasoline and diesel fuels by 2035. The deal is part of the EU’s “Fit for 55” package that is meant to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 55% by 2030. With the Fit for 55 targets, car manufacturers will need to reduce emissions of new cars sold by 55% compared to 2021 emissions by 2030. Then, the companies will need to further reduce emissions to zero by no longer selling new combustion engine cars and vans by 2035. Additionally, the deal will establish a common methodology for member states that will assess the full life cycle of emissions on cars and vans in the EU market as well as the fuels and energy they consume. This methodology will allow manufacturers to report life cycle emissions of new vehicles to the EU Commission, but only on a voluntary basis. According to the EU, cars and vans make up 15% of total EU carbon emissions. It said that transitioning to 55% fewer emissions, and ultimately 100% zero emissions, will lead to better air quality, improved public health, more affordable electric vehicles and more development and manufacturing jobs.There are some challenges to the deal, though. For one, the EU does not offer evenly distributed charging stations, The Associated Press reported, and may have too few to support the expected rapid increase in electrical vehicle use in the coming years. The announcement was made to show “that the EU is serious about adopting concrete laws to reach the more ambitious targets set out in the EU Climate Law” ahead of the UN COP27 Climate Change Conference in November. A new UN Environment Programme report found that the world is already on track to reach 2.4°C to 2.6°C of warming by 2100 and that countries may only be able to limit global warming to 1.5°C with immediate, large-scale separation from fossil fuels to cut emissions at least 45%.Greenpeace criticized the ban, saying it will take effect too late to keep global warming at 1.5°C. “The EU is taking the scenic route, and that route ends in disaster. A European 2035 phase-out of fossil fuel-burning cars is not quick enough: new cars with internal combustion engines should be banned by 2028 at the latest,” Lorelei Limousin, Greenpeace EU transport campaigner, said in a statement. “The announcement is a perfect example of where politicians can bask in a feel-good headline that masks the reality of their repeated failures to act on climate. The UN has just confirmed that the climate crisis will spiral out of control unless governments take rapid and decisive action, including a shift to cleaner modes of transport.”
Despite rhetoric, GOP-led states start to embrace EVs - Republican-led states are pushing ahead with electric vehicle manufacturing and infrastructure, even as their GOP governors and congressional representatives often have resisted the transition to zero-emission vehicles. Federal funding is one reason. Economics is playing a big role, too. Last year’s bipartisan infrastructure law included $7.5 billion for a coast-to-coast network of EV chargers and $7 billion to support the U.S. battery supply chain. One major beneficiary of the funding is the so-called battery belt — a swath of Republican-led states in the South and Midwest that has attracted the attention of EV industry manufacturers. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation lists Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina and Indiana as the country’s “new EV production” states in a recent research summary highlighting new investments in electric vehicles. Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee are home to the greatest number of announced battery plants, according to the trade association. “States are starting to sort of realize the economic development opportunities and job opportunities” associated with the EV industry, said Ben Prochazka, executive director of the Electrification Coalition. At the same time, states are preparing to dole out contracts to private entities to build charging stations and offering incentives for companies to build gigafactories capable of producing enough batteries annually to power thousands of EVs. And that’s often in spite of Republican opposition to climate-friendly policies. Conservatives have pushed back on President Joe Biden’s climate efforts, often citing high costs, inflation and energy security as top concerns. Some Republicans have said the money going toward EV technology and infrastructure would be better used for shoring up the country’s energy independence — including by investing in fossil fuels — or for improving traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges. Few Republicans supported the bipartisan infrastructure law, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and not a single GOP member of Congress backed this year’s Inflation Reduction Act and its $369 billion in climate spending. “No matter how well-meaning my Democratic colleagues may be, they are turning the economy upside down and increasing taxes all in the name of climate change,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), said in a statement after the Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act in August. In spite of that, Prochazka said it’s important to watch what’s happening in the states themselves. “We’re seeing a lot of industry that has been built up in those states. Maybe their senator didn’t vote to support IIJA or IRA, but we’re very quickly seeing the recognition that this is happening,” he said. “And while there might be some jockeying around the rhetoric, at the end of the day, this is the path forward.”
Tesla Held Talks With Mining Giant Glencore Over Equity Stake - Tesla and mining giant Glencore held talks earlier this year about an equity stake in the Swiss commodities group, according to Financial Times, speaking with two people familiar with the matter. The move would've allowed Tesla to have increased control over securing supplies of metals for battery production. Elon Musk's electric car company was pursuing a 10-20% equity stake, but the two companies could not strike a deal earlier this year. One reason the talks ended was Tesla's concern that Glencore's coal mining segment wasn't compatible with the carmaker's ESG goals. One month after Glencore chief executive Gary Nagle toured Tesla's factory in Fremont, California, Musk tweeted in April that Tesla may get into the lithium mining and refining business directly. "Price of lithium has gone to insane levels," the billionaire tweeted. "There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but pace of extraction/refinement is slow."Tesla has already secured a cobalt offtake agreement with Glencore that provides the car company with thousands of tons of cobalt per year for factories in Shanghai and Berlin.In a recent earnings call, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas asked Tesla executives about vertically integrating into mining. Here's what Musk said in response to Jonas: "We'll do whatever we have to. Without limiting factors, we'll do. We do not personally constrain ourselves. We don't particularly integrate just for the hell of particularly integrating."
Lack of graphite could gum up American EV market - President Joe Biden’s ambitions for an American-made electric vehicle industry have a graphite problem.A key ingredient in the modern EV battery, graphite is used in making rechargeable cells. But it hasn’t been mined in this country for decades. There’s also synthetic graphite — often made with coking coal — but little production exists today in the United States.Like with so many parts of the battery supply chain, China dominates in production of both kinds of graphite — a source Biden and a bipartisan contingent of lawmakers in Congress have stridently turned against.To get around this, the Biden administration may now have to help prop up a domestic graphite mining and refining industry in the United States, while fostering the sector’s growth abroad.China’s control of the graphite market has started to weigh on the minds of people like John DeMaio, CEO of Graphex Technologies, a company building a graphite anode manufacturing plant in Michigan.“What would happen if the Chinese supply was cut off?” DeMaio said. “There will be less risky places … but you’re not going to transition the entire graphite supply chain overnight.” Only two places in the United States hold any potential in the near-term for new graphite mining, according to federal data: a river ecosystem in Alabama rich with rare species, and an untouched swath of tundra off the coast of central Alaska. Other countries have plenty of graphite in the ground — like Canada — but they’re not digging anywhere enough of it yet to fully supply the rapidly growing EV market.
Enchant Energy’s San Juan project at center of debate around new carbon dioxide rules - Enchant Energy will have to comply with new carbon dioxide emission limits should it successfully acquire the rights to own and operate the San Juan Generating Station.The New Mexico Environmental Improvement Board approved a new carbon dioxide emission rule for coal-fired power plants on Friday that will go into effect Jan. 1.The decision came after two days of hearings in Farmington that led to several changes to the draft rule proposed by the New Mexico Environment Department.The carbon dioxide rulemaking came as a result of the Energy Transition Act, which limits carbon dioxide emissions to 1,100 pounds per megawatt hour after Jan. 1, 2023. This limit will be calculated on a 365-day rolling average.During the hearing on Wednesday, Sargent & Lundy Senior Environmental Consultant Ken Snell said that Farmington and Enchant could operate the power plant at higher emission levels above the 1,100 pounds per megawatt hour early on and then make up for those high emissions by reducing the emissions later on. The engineering firm Sargent & Lundy has performed contract work for Enchant Energy.Enchant Energy has said that it plans to operate the power plant while installing the carbon capture technology.Board member Karen Garcia said the debate over whether to use net or gross power generation as the standard was the toughest part of the entire rule. Because operating the carbon capture system will utilize a large chunk of the power generated at the plant, it would be easier for Enchant Energy to meet the emission standards using a gross standard that would take into account all of the power generated at the plant rather than just the electricity provided to the grid. Enchant Energy has publicly stated that once the carbon capture retrofit is completed, carbon dioxide emissions from the plant will be far under the 1,100 pounds per megawatt hour requirement and that the equipment will be able to capture 90 to 95 percent of the generated carbon dioxide.“This stuff is going to work and work big, or it’s not going to work…If they’ve got a winning formula, a 30 percent handicap won’t really affect them, or it shouldn’t,” Board Member Barry Bitzer said about the carbon capture technology and referencing estimates that at least 30 percent of power generated will be needed to operate the equipment. While 25 to 30 percent was referenced in the meeting, a Front-End Engineering Design study contains higher estimates.
Analysis finds ‘stunning’ lack of compliance with coal ash rules -- More than nine out of 10 coal ash impoundments nationwide are contaminating groundwater in violation of federal rules, according to environmental groups’ comprehensive analysis of the latest industry-reported data. Even as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has stepped up enforcement of federal coal ash rules this year, the groups say more urgent action is necessary, including mandates that companies test all drinking water wells within a half-mile of coal ash impoundments, and that companies cease storing coal ash in contact with groundwater.Coal ash contains arsenic, mercury and other toxins that have been linked to a range of health impacts. And drinking water wells near coal plants, unlike municipal water systems, do not typically undergo regular testing.The report released today by Earthjustice and the Environmental Integrity Project delves into issues covered by the Energy News Network’s recent 12-part coal ash investigation with Northwestern University and Great Lakes Now. These include thethreat posed by historic ash not covered by federal rules and the likelihood that many companies avoid responsibility for groundwater contamination by placing background monitoring wells in areas actually contaminated by coal ash. The environmental groups also note that as pressure increases on companies to remove ash stored in unsafe ponds, it must not be reused as “fill” to build up land or berms, a common practice that poses its own serious contamination risks.Companies must report groundwater monitoring data and closure plans for all coal ash repositories that were active when the 2015 rules took effect. Posted in thousands of lengthy documents on scores of separate company websites, this information is not easy for the public to analyze. The environmental groups recently updated theirinteractive public database with the latest filings, showing that coal ash is contaminating groundwater at 265 of 292 sites (with a total of 746 different coal ash dumps) covered by the federal rules. Only 11 sites — or 4% — are planning to clean up coal ash in a way that will protect groundwater, the report says. “The sheer volume of noncompliance among U.S. coal plants is stunning,” said Earthjustice senior counsel Lisa Evans. “Federal agencies or state agencies should not have to stand over these plants and make sure they comply. These rules are not recommendations — it’s the law. To see U.S. coal plants blatantly violating the law at plant after plant is extremely discouraging and incredibly dangerous.”
Over 130 Power Plants That Have Spawned Leaking Toxic Coal Ash Ponds and Landfills Don’t Think Cleanup Is Necessary - EPA coal ash regulations issued in 2015 allow polluting utilities to self-regulate. And a giant loophole exempts coal ash piles that stopped receiving coal plant waste before that year. A new report based on electric utilities’ own records reveals a significant challenge confronting the Biden administration as it grapples with enforcing coal ash regulations adopted seven years ago in the wake of natural disasters.The Environmental Protection Agency waited until January to take its first significant enforcement actions to protect communities from the hundreds of polluting piles of coal ash and other coal-burning waste scattered across the country, often leaking toxic contaminants.But only half of 265 power plants with ash ponds or landfills that are known to be contaminating groundwater agree that cleanup is necessary, and 96 percent of these dissenters are refusing to propose any groundwater treatment, according to the 212-page report, “Poisonous Coverup: The Widespread Failure of the Power Industry to Clean Up Coal Ash Dumps,” by the Environmental Integrity Project and Earthjustice.The report, released Thursday, claims that some power companies are illegally manipulating data and monitoring systems to avoid cleanup requirements and proposing inadequate strategies that will not restore groundwater quality.Lisa Evans, a senior Earthjustice attorney, described the EPA’s task as immense and blamed that reality in part on the nature of the regulations, which were designed to be “self-implementing,” without requiring any action by a regulatory agency, according to EPA.“The industry cannot and does not police itself,” said Evans, co-author of the report. “Left to its own devices, the utility industry has chosen every off-ramp it could find to avoid safe closures and comprehensive cleanups. The Biden EPA is trying, but they are hampered by insufficient resources. State agencies are mostly missing in action.”A “glaring hole in the current rule” does not help, said Abel Russ, a senior editor with Environmental Integrity Project, also a co-author. The 2015 ruleexcluded dumps that stopped receiving waste before 2015, and ash ponds that were completely dried out by then and had also stopped receiving waste. “In my experience, most power plants have at least one or two coal ash dumps that are not covered by the current rule. This obviously makes groundwater cleanup much harder.”In August, Earthjustice filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., on behalf of the Environmental Integrity Project, the Sierra Club and several other organizations to close the loophole in the agency’s rules regulating the management of coal ash dumps that have leached toxic pollutants into rivers and lakes across the country.The environmental advocates, combing through records posted by utilities on their websites as required by the 2015 regulations, had identified buried ash from power plants dumped in open pits in nearly 40 states, often with no liner systems to protect groundwater, or dumped in old landfills—all still unregulated by EPA.The failure of the vast majority of power companies to follow the 2015 Coal Ash Rule, providing a set of safe disposal requirements, has serious consequences for water quality and public health, according to the new report.
Michigan launching study of nuclear power options to replace coal plants — (WJRT) - As Michigan's utility companies move away from coal-fired power plants, the state is launching a study of developing more nuclear options.Gov. Gretchen Whitmer signed a bill from a Mid-Michigan lawmaker commissioning a feasibility study of increasing the amount of power generated from nuclear sources in Michigan.Republican State Rep. Graham Filler, whose district covers part of Shiawassee County, said nuclear energy may provide a source of reliable and affordable energy for Michigan homes and businesses.“As more and more coal-fired power generation plants are shuttered, it’s critical that we have a serious conversation about the baseload we’re losing and how we can make sure that Michiganders are still able to access reliable energy they can afford,” Filler said. “It makes complete sense for nuclear energy to be part of that conversation.”Consumers Energy plans to shut down all of its coal-fired power plants in Michigan by the end of this decade. DTE Energy is planning to retire 11 of its 17 coal-fired power plants by the end of 2023.Both utilities are investing heavily in renewable sources of electricity, such as solar and wind farms. But Filler wants to see a study of whether nuclear energy also should be a bigger part of Michigan's energy platform. “Nuclear power generation is a safe, clean, and emission-free option,” he said. “This study will provide vital information that energy providers, legislators and community leaders will be able to rely on as they make decisions regarding the future of energy in Michigan.”Michigan already is home to DTE's Fermi 2 nuclear plant on Lake Erie in Monroe County and American Electric Power's Donald C. Cook nuclear plant on Lake Michigan in Berrien County. Entergy's Palisades nuclear plant in Van Buren County closed this year after more than 50 years of operation. Whitmer is leading an effort to examine reopening the plant and placing back into service.
PG&E asks feds to extend life of Diablo Canyon nuclear plant -PG&E Corp. formally asked federal regulators Monday to extend the life of Diablo Canyon, the last operating nuclear plant in California, as part of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s effort to improve reliability of the electricity grid.The state’s largest utility announced it applied to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to renew Diablo Canyon’s license and postpone the planned 2025 shutdown of the San Luis Obispo County plant, which supplies about 9% of the state’s power.Newsom, reversing his earlier opposition to prolonging Diablo Canyon’s lifespan, signed legislation in September that would keep the plant open until 2030. The legislation also allows the state to loan PG&E as much as $1.4 billion to make upgrades needed to postpone the plant’s closure.The governor appealed to lawmakers to keep Diablo Canyon alive to prevent rolling blackouts. The power grid is increasingly reliant on solar and other renewable energy sources. That makes it vulnerable to shortages during extreme heat waves, as in August 2020, when solar power fades in early evening but temperatures remain high.California narrowly avoided blackouts in early September, shortly after Newsom signed the bill, during a string of 110-degree-plus days.PG&E had decided to close the 37-year-old plant because it didn’t pencil out particularly well as cheaper energy sources such as wind and solar become more prevalent. But the utility relented as Newsom pressed for an extension. The governor’s aides told lawmakers that without Diablo Canyon, the state’s grid could become increasingly unstable.“We are proud of the role Diablo Canyon plays in providing safe, reliable, low-cost and carbon-free energy to our customers and Californians,” said Paula Gerfen, the company’s chief nuclear officer, in a statement Monday. “This request to renew our licenses is another step to help California reliable achieve its bold decarbonization goals.”
Westinghouse to Build First Nuclear Power Plant in Poland -The Polish government is expected to announce in the coming days that American company Westinghouse will build the first nuclear power station in Poland, according to reports. However, for political reasons, a compromise will be struck by which Westinghouse will only be allowed to build the first nuclear power station, leaving the door open for other providers. This solution is expected to lead to delays in the project, as the European Commission is likely to block, at Germany’s behest, Poland’s intention to allow the construction of the first nuclear power station to proceed. The Czechs have avoided falling into such a trap. The Polish government was put under pressure from the American government, which pushed the Westinghouse case and gave Poland a 30-day deadline, despite the fact that the Polish-U.S. nuclear power agreement sets no deadlines on proceedings. The U.S. pressure has been intense.Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in August attempted a reset in relations with France. One of the reasons for that reset was to gain France’s help in countering German opposition to Polish nuclear power capacity. France also has aspirations to participate in Poland’s nuclear build-out.According to portal “W zielonej strefie,” the government has opted for a “squalid compromise,” which the portal feels will lead to the delay of the whole nuclear project in Poland. The decision to give Westinghouse the right to build the first nuclear power station was only made to address French concerns and persuade them not to lobby the European Commission to block the tenderless process Poland is about to choose. However, the French do have some strong cards they can play. Poland had, under the previous energy tsar Piotr Naimski, favored the Americans with an actual state-level agreement, which may also have been desired by the French EDF and Korean KHNP. The whole process favored the Americans since they were the only ones able to prepare a detailed offer, as they had full information about the required parameters on the basis of AP-1000 reactor, which is the technology Westinghouse uses. According to European law, for the process to be free of public tender requirements, a member state must prove that there is only one potential offer that meets the desired criteria or that the investment is a continuation requiring the same technology. It does not seem as if Poland met these criteria. The Czechs actually did hold a tender, and its terms of reference were negotiated with the Commission.
Poland Signs Deal With Korea To Build 2nd Nuclear Power Plant, Days After Picking US Offer For First NPP -In one of Europe's most coal-reliant countries, where desperate homeowners lined up in wait for days to buy coal ahead of the winter as far back as August, today Poland signed an agreement with South Korea to develop the European nation’s second nuclear power plant, accelerating its efforts to become energy independent, although it has decades to go.Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., a state-run nuclear plant operator, signed a letter of intent with Polish utilities PGE SA and ZE PAK SA on Monday, South Korea’s energy ministry said in a statement. The consortium will build four 1,400-megawatt APR-1400 reactors near ZE PAK’s coal plants in Patnow in Central Poland, Bloomberg and Reuters reported.“The initiative of ZE PAK and PGE is extremely interesting because it fulfills the strategic goals of Poland and Poles -- cheap energy and energy independence,” Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin was quoted as saying in the statement.The companies, with government backing, intend to prepare a preliminary development plan for the plant by the end of this year, they said in a statement.As Reuters notes, the agreement comes just days after Poland selected Westinghouse Electric to build its first nuclear plant. The European Union’s most coal-reliant country is pushing into nuclear power to provide stable electricity while curbing the need for imports of coal and natural gas. The deal is also a shot in the arm for Korea’s government, which has been promoting the export of atomic technology as part of a wider push to reduce emissions.
Vice President John Skory exits FirstEnergy after 'violation' - A spokesperson for FirstEnergy said today that Vice President of Utility Operations John Skory left the utility after a violation of company policy.“John Skory, formerly vice president of Utility Operations for FirstEnergy, is no longer with the company following a violation of company policy,” Jennifer Young, a manager of external affairs for FirstEnergy, told the Energy and Policy Institute in an email this morning. “Since this is a personnel matter, we’re unable to share further specific information, though I can confirm this is not related to HB 6,” Young said. House Bill 6 is at the center of an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Ohio. A number of FirstEnergy executives and directors have left the company amidst the fallout from the investigation, including former CEOs Charles Jones and Steven Strah. The 2019 Ohio energy law included a now-repealed $1 billion ratepayer bailout of two nuclear power plants owned by FirstEnergy Solutions (FES), a then-bankrupt FirstEnergy subsidiary that later emerged as a separate new company now called Energy Harbor. HB 6 also rolled back Ohio’s renewable energy and energy standards for electric utilities, bailed out several coal plantsconnected to FES, and included a controversial “decoupling” provision that locked in FirstEnergy’s annual earnings in Ohio at ratepayers’ expense. FirstEnergy reached a deferred prosecution agreement with federal prosecutors last summer, andagreed to a statement of facts in which it admitted that it paid approximately $60 million to influence the actions of indicted former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder on HB 6. The company also admitted it paid $4.3 million to influence former Public Utilities Commission of Ohio Samuel Randazzo’s actions on HB 6 and other matters. Randazzo, who resigned from PUCO after the FBI raided his home, has not been named or charged in the investigation but is a defendant in a related civil lawsuit filed by Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost. Skory has also not been named or charged in the federal investigation. Skory’s name, however, did appear on copies of once “confidential” Cleveland Electric Illuminating (CEI) Company leases with DJM Lakeside LLC that PUCO released last year as “supporting documents” used in an HB 6-related audit of the FirstEnergy Delivery Capitalization Rider.
Natural gas-linked super PAC drops $1 million backing Republicans - cleveland.com - An opaque political entity has backed Republicans including J.D. Vance for U.S. Senate and a range of state legislative candidates.
Gas group is behind 'Affordable Energy Fund' PAC ads in Ohio - The Empowerment Alliance, a dark-money group aligned with the gas industry, is behind the mysterious Affordable Energy Fund PAC that spent over $1 million dollars on election mailers and digital ads supporting Republican candidates in Ohio over the last two months. The Empowerment Alliance (TEA) took credit for “establishing the Affordable Energy Fund as a political action committee” in a “Year in Review 2021” report. The Energy and Policy Institute obtained a copy of the report, which has not previously been made public, via a public records request filed with the Auglaize County Commissioners, who met in September with TEA’s then-executive director Matthew Hammond. The Affordable Energy Fund PAC (AEF PAC) has paid more than $1 million to the political consulting firm Majority Strategies for direct mail and digital ad campaigns since the start of September, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports the Super PAC filed in October. Hammond joined TEA as its new executive director in January, after previously workingas president of the Ohio Oil and Gas Association and a lobbyist for Chesapeake Energy. Hammond also began a new job as an associate vice president at Majority Strategies in January, according to his LinkedIn profile. He left TEA and Majority Strategies sometime in October and now works for the lobbying firm Orion Strategies. “We can run a digital, mail, or door-to-door campaign to any universe of Affordable Energy Voters,” TEA said in a guide on “How to Run on Energy” included in recent installments of its weekly e-newsletter. “Republicans have a once in a generation chance to reshape the electoral landscape,” TEA said in the election guide. “Dissatisfaction with Biden and democrats’ anti-energy energy policies have led to increased prices across the board, which has created a new universe of voters – Affordable Energy Voters.” On October 28, the AEF PAC reported to the FEC that it paid Majority Strategies nearly $225,000 for direct mailers supporting J.D. Vance, the Republican who is running against Democrat Tim Ryan for Ohio’s open seat in the U.S. Senate. The Super PAC previously reported that it paid Majority Strategies approximately $650,000 in September and $150,000 in October for “State IE” [state independent expenditures] digital advertising and direct mail campaigns. A sparse website for the AEF PAC says the Super PAC supports “pro-Ohio energy” candidates. The website links to YouTube videos about gasoline prices and home heating costs supporting Republican state senate candidates in Ohio, including Nathan Manning, Michael Rulli, Kristina Roegner, and Michele Reynolds. The videos supporting Manning and Reynolds appeared inGoogle ads paid for by the Affordable Energy Fund LLC, and the Reynolds video is also featured in a Facebook ad paid for by the AEF PAC.
EOG Resources plans 20-well program in newly accumulated Utica acreage - EOG Resources Inc. is targeting a 20-well program in the Utica in 2023 after establishing a new position in Ohio, accumulating 395,000 net acres and about 135,000 mineral acres in the southern portion of its acreage footprint—all for less than $500 million, the company said as part of its third-quarter earnings release Nov. 3.The product mix averages about 60-70% liquids across the acreage where the company already has completed four wells and operates 18 additional legacy wells across a 140-mile trend.The company “is now operating seven significant resource basins with the addition of the Utica Combo in Ohio,” said Ezra Yacob, chairman and chief executive officer. The multi-basin position provides flexibility “to allocate capital to the highest return projects across a diverse and improving inventory of future well locations,” he said. For fourth-quarter 2022, EOG expects total crude oil equivalent volumes of 900,000-936,700 boe/d with US crude oil and condensate volumes of 460,400-468,400 b/d and 1,360-1,440 MMcfd for US natural gas. Capital expenditure of 1.25-1.45 billion is expected.
Groups: End Ohio’s authority to regulate fracking waste - Mahoning Matters -- More than two dozen citizen, environmental and faith groups want the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to revoke Ohio’s authority to regulate fracking waste.In a new petition, the groups say the Ohio Department of Natural Resources hasn’t complied with federal Safe Drinking Water Act requirements or its environmental-justice obligations.Billions of gallons of oil and gas waste have been injected into Ohio’s Class II injection wells, including waste from other states.Ankit Jain, associate attorney with the Sierra Club’s Environmental Law Program, says Ohio’s regulatory program doesn’t hold oil and gas companies accountable for violations.“If you compare Ohio, really, across the rest of the country, it’s one of the worst programs,” Jain said. “Their regulation itself, the rules that the operators have to follow, are extremely lax. And then the enforcement for violating the lax rules is almost nonexistent. It’s not just that they could do better — it’s really one of the worst of the worst.”Ohio has more than 220 injection wells. Jain said the brine, which is toxic and radioactive, is spread on roads as a deicer and dust suppressant.ODNR said Ohio “operates an effective regulatory program that meets federal standards and protects public health.”Ashtabula County resident Julie Boetger is a member of the Ohio Brine Task Force and Ashtabula County Water Watch, both among the petitioners. She said tests run by ONDR, as well as independent researchers, have revealed the brine in Ohio exceeds federal and state limits for radioactivity.“This is contaminating our air, our water,” Boetger said. “This is contaminating things that we can’t see. So it’s very important that we pay attention to what’s going on in our own backyard, and what exactly they’re doing with fracking and brine.” The petition notes that injection wells are disproportionately located in low-income communities in Appalachia.Jill Hunkler, director of Ohio Valley Allies, is from Belmont County, one of the most heavily fracked in the state. She said people have voiced their concerns to federal and state officials.“Based on our mutual respect, I believe that we can work together to solve these issues, hopefully immediately,” Hunkler said. “I feel like it’s life or death for us here in Appalachia, Ohio, because we’ve been failed by regulating agencies — and certainly the industry.”
EOG Resources Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results, Announces New Position in Utica Combo ...EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) today reported third quarter 2022 results. The attached supplemental financial tables and schedules for the reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures and related definitions, along with a related presentation, are also available on EOG's website athttp://investors.eogresources.com/investors. "EOG is now operating seven significant resource basins with the addition of the Utica Combo in Ohio. Our growing multi-basin portfolio of high-return plays positions EOG for long-term sustainable value creation. "Our multi-basin footprint reinforces several competitive advantages. It provides flexibility to allocate capital to the highest return projects across a diverse and improving inventory of future well locations. Operating in multiple basins also fosters innovation through diverse, high-performing teams creating new ideas at the field level that are then shared across our operations. "Strong performance by our operating teams propelled third quarter production volumes and capital expenditures ahead of their targets, despite a challenging operating environment. We remain focused on applying new innovations and efficiencies to mitigate future inflationary cost pressures. We expect our multi-basin footprint, now with the addition of the Utica Combo play, will continue to lower EOG's overall cost of supply.
Pennsylvania Lawmakers Add $30M in Tax Incentives for Natural Gas Use, Offer Carrot for Hydrogen Hub - Lawmakers in Pennsylvania, the second-largest U.S. natural gas-producing state, last week signed a bill increasing tax credits by $30 million for in-state fertilizer and petrochemical manufacturers that use locally-produced natural gas. House Bill 1059, dubbed the Pennsylvania Economic Development for a Growing Economy (PA EDGE), amends the Keystone State’s tax code, boosting the natural gas use tax credits from more than $26.6 million to around $56.6 million. Companies that have invested a minimum of $400 million into an in-state fertilizer, natural gas liquids or petrochemical project could be eligible to receive the credit at a rate of 47 cents/Mcf of purchased dry gas by filing an application to the state’s Department of Revenue by March 1, once the tax credits come into play. Eligible projects also should demonstrate the use of carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS), or a similar technology, at the facility “to the extent it is cost effective and feasible” at the discretion of the company applying for the credit, according to the legislation. Each fiscal year, up to two eligible companies can each receive up to about $6.6 million in tax credits. The remaining available tax credits would be made available to a company that has made an investment of more than $1 billion in order to construct and operate a qualifying project in the state. Pennsylvania legislators noted the benefits of the bill’s predecessor, the Local Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit (LRMTC), which offered more than $26.6 million to incentivize Pennsylvania companies to use Pennsylvania-sourced dry natural gas in production. According to Pennsylvania Senate Republicans, the LRMTC brought in Houston-based Nacero Inc. to construct a $6 billion manufacturing facility at the site of a former Pennsylvania coal mine to produce gasoline from natural gas and renewable natural gas (RNG), rather than crude oil.
2K gallons of oil spilled in Somerset County, crews to spend weeks cleaning up (WTAJ) — A company in Stoystown announced Monday that they are actively working to clean up heating oil that was spilled into the surrounding environment. On Thursday, Oct. 27, approximately 2,000 gallons of No. 2 heating oil was spilled from one of the buildings at Highland Tank & Manufacturing Company in Quemahoning Township as a result of incorrectly installed piping for the heating system. Within two hours of discovery, remediation resources arrived at the scene to help clean up the oil. The company said it is believed the largest impact of the spill is to the soil on the Highland Tank property. However, an unknown amount of material did migrate through the soil to the Oven Run Creek behind the property. In the weeks to come, the company will continue to utilize contractors in its clean-up and remediation efforts on its property and any other impacted areas. The company also announced it will continue to work closely with federal, state and local agencies through every step of the process. “The goal of all parties is to focus efforts in a manner that will lessen the impact the spill may have on the environment and the surrounding community,” the company wrote in its release.
'All for naught.' Biden orphan well plan faces trouble in Pa. - A plugged orphan well is pictured in western Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania Department of Environmental ProtectionEven as Pennsylvania prepares to tap millions in federal money to plug roughly 300 of the state’s many abandoned oil and gas wells, drillers this year have already tried to walk away from another 354.The abandonments are not a fluke of oil prices or market shifts.From 2017 to 2021, state regulators sent more than 3,000 notices to companies for attempting to abandon oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania without plugging them.This potential new wave of abandoned wells highlights the hydra-like nature of well abandonment in the state, and worries environmentalists about what they might eventually see throughout the Appalachian region. While Congress and the Biden administration committed $4.7 billion last year to clean up abandoned wells across the country, that significant influx of money could fall short in the mountainous region if states don’t stop drillers from walking away when wells reach the end of their lucrative lives (Energywire, Nov. 23, 2021).“The federal money that is coming through the federal bipartisan infrastructure law is a godsend,” said explained David Hess, who worked in leadership at the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection for a decade, including as secretary in 2001 and 2002. “But if we don’t stem this continuing flood of new well abandonment somehow, it’s going to be all for naught.”Appalachia is home to roughly half of the country’s orphans, and a high number of aging wells are located in those states as well, signaling what could be the next chapter of well abandonment.“Wells enter the orphan rolls all the time,” said Adam Peltz, a senior attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund who tracks orphan well issues. Peltz said that the most concrete evidence of the problem is in Pennsylvania, but he remains concerned about it happening in other states in the region.But changing the way states manage oil and gas in Appalachia can be an uphill battle, with many lawmakers loyal to the long-standing industry and deeply opposed to federal intervention in how states manage oil companies.In Pennsylvania, conservative lawmakers from the natural gas-rich western region pushed through a law earlier this year blocking the state bureaucracy for 10 years from increasing bonding on some wells. That bonding is the financial insurance drillers lay down to ensure cleanup doesn’t fall to the taxpayers when companies go bankrupt or refuse to plug wells.Pennsylvania, where there are more than 8,000 known orphans, doesn’t require bonding on wells drilled before 1985, and critics of the new law say it sets bonding requirements that aren’t enough to cover cleanup costs. The administration of Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf — which allowed the new restriction to become law — said that it is looking for other ways to ensure oil companies don’t abandon wells.
Third-Party Issues Seen Challenging EQT Operations Into 2023 - Natural Gas Intelligence - Supply chain issues, midstream constraints and adverse weather combined to curb EQT Corp.’s third quarter natural gas output and are likely to impact the company’s operations through the middle of next year, management said last week. “These third-party constraints, along with water restrictions due to drought conditions in parts of the [Appalachian] basin, negatively impacted our 2022 production by more than 150 Bcfe, or 7% compared with our original volume expectations,” said CEO Toby Rice during a call to discuss the company’s third quarter results. Strong well productivity and work to optimize field operations have helped to “buffer the impact and clawed back” almost 50 Bcfe, he added. But production is likely to come in at the low end of the company’s previous forecast, or roughly 1.925-1.975 Bcfe. The company now expects to turn-in-line 64-79 wells this year, or 30% fewer wells compared to its February guidance. That’s expected to cut the company’s capital expenditures by $25 million at the high end of its previous forecast. Rice said water line problems have been resolved, but added that supply chain issues such as trouble getting equipment will continue “nagging at us.” He added that “we’re doing all we can to build more visibility into our program,” but said the nation’s largest gas producer isn’t likely to be back on track until mid-2023. The company, which operates only in Appalachia, also reported an average realized price for the quarter of $3.41/Mcfe, up from $2.33 during the year-ago period. However, that was partly offset by unfavorable cash-settled derivatives and lower Appalachian prices. EQT reported a wider-than-expected basis differential due to an unplanned outage on the Nexus Gas Transmission System and other midstream constraints in the region. Appalachian stalwarts Range Resources Corp. and Antero Resources Corp. also kicked off this earnings season by reporting midstream issues and inflationary pressures.
Fuel oil companies warn of a long, cold winter -— Local heating fuel companies are warning that it could be a cold winter for more than 1 million Pennsylvanians who depend on them to supply fuel to their homes. Owners of local heating oil companies say the biggest challenge they are facing now is not supply but cost. Their credit limits are not high enough to handle the ups and downs in the oil market, making them unable to store what they need to supply customers. Customers, in turn, can't afford to pay for it. It's not every day that you see competitors working together, but inside the Hazle Township Commons meeting room, the owners of several heating oil companies in Luzerne County and surrounding areas came together as they believe their businesses are in jeopardy. "As all the fuel dealers know that are here today, you know, the price has such swings in a day. Prices can change 30, 35, 40 cents a gallon when we're buying it, and we're having a lot of problems, not only getting the product but when it comes to paying for it," said Bill Gallagher of Hazleton Standard Fuel. "We can't afford to buy what they can't afford to pay for. That's what's happening every day right now. This isn't what if. It's now. And if it goes up another buck or two, freeze everything; everything stops. Nobody could afford to buy another gallon of diesel fuel," said Steve Passio of Button Oil and Propane. "It bothers us to know that there's a storm coming where we're going to be out, that we're going to be literally sitting with our trucks idle, waiting to collect money to be able to collect that money to then go push it back to the suppliers to be able to go get it. What if it's cold?"
The diesel market is in a perfect storm as prices surge, supply dwindles ahead of winter - A perfect storm is taking place in the diesel market, with dwindling diesel reserves, a drought on the Mississippi River pushing more product to rail and truck, and a possible rail strike leading to a surge in prices that is expected to continue.Diesel prices have increased by 33% for November deliveries."The national average price for diesel today is $5.30 per gallon and is expected to go up 15 to 20 cents in the next few weeks," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, LLC.Reserves for diesel this time of year have not been this low since 1951, with the greatest shortfall in the Northeast region including New York and New England. "This is not only constricting the ability of farmers to export the soybeans and grain they grow but also to receive the fuel and fertilizer they need to operate," said Mike Steenhoek executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition of the low water conditions that have turned the Mississippi River from a multi-lane interstate to a two-lane highway."Now adding insult to injury is the increased uncertainty that railroads will be able to provide an effective lifeline during this critical time. It's a vivid reminder that it is not enough to produce a crop or have demand for that crop. Having a reliable supply chain that connects supply with demand is also essential for farmers to be successful," Steenhoek said.Two rail unions recently voted down a labor deal needed to avert a national strike in the coming months. Diesel inventories in the New York/New England markets are facing an acute crisis, down over 50% since last year and at the lowest level since 1990, according to Lipow.Lipow said East Coast refineries are making as much diesel as they can and dependent on tankers and barges for supply, any weather delay causes a terminal to run out of product..According to the EIA, East Coast refineries operated at 100% capacity in June and July. "Last week, they operated at 102% of capacity," Lipow said. "No more supply is forthcoming from the four East Coast refineries." Diesel fuel and heating oil are the problem children of the petroleum complex, says Again Capital's KilduffNew England's diesel supply issues were made worse when a Canadian refinery in Newfoundland shut down in 2020 as the pandemic impacted on demand.The Midwest is also seeing supply constraints, pushing up costs for farmers."In visiting with a number of farmers, the consensus, of course, is that diesel costs are one more incursion into profitability," Steenhoek said. "As far as getting supplies, it looks like those areas most dependent upon the river are experiencing the biggest challenge. A couple of farmers told me diesel supply via their local vendor is day to day." In order for the Northeast to receive more diesel, the fuel needs to be imported from another country or a tanker from the Gulf Coast, but that is not allowed because of the Jones Act, also known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, which prohibits a foreign vessel from transporting all goods between two U.S. ports. "The Jones Act requires all cargo transported between U.S. ports be carried on ships that are U.S. flagged and built, and mostly owned and crewed by Americans,"
The U.S. Diesel Shortage Is Worsening - Multi-year low inventories and constraints in supply are exacerbating a diesel shortage in the United States, especially on the East Coast.Diesel demand continues to be strong after recovering faster from the pandemic slump than other fuels such as gasoline, refiners say.But several factors have combined this year to deplete U.S. distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil. And ahead of the winter, the distillate fuel crunch is worsening. U.S. refining capacity is now lower than it was before Covid, as operable refinery capacity shrank in 2021 for a second consecutive year to stand at 17.9 million barrels per calendar day as of January 1, 2022, according to EIA estimates. U.S. refiners permanently shut down some refinery capacity at the start of the pandemic when fuel demand plunged, while others closed facilities to convert them into biofuel refineries. Some refineries were under maintenance this autumn, reducing the availability of products. In addition, the U.S. banned imports of all Russian energy products after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and hasn’t imported any petroleum products from Russia since AprilLower refinery capacity in the U.S. since the pandemic, seasonal maintenance at refineries globally, and a major strike in France have all combined in recent weeks to create a shortage of middle distillates, not only in the United States, but also worldwide. The world is also scrambling for diesel supply also in view of the looming EU embargo on Russian fuel imports by sea, expected to kick in in early February.A diesel shortage and high diesel prices don’t bode well for the global economy, which is slowing down and could tip into recession at some point next year. Distillate fuels are used in transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, and heatingIn the U.S., distillate fuel inventories are about 20% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the EIA’s latest weekly inventory report. The U.S. has just 25 days of diesel supply in reserve, with some regional markets very tight.According to CNBC, U.S. diesel reserves at the end of October have never been so low since 1951, with the Northeast most exposed to low levels of diesel stocks.Not that refiners aren’t trying—refinery utilization on the East Coast was at 102.5% in the week to October 21, per EIA data.Yet, distillate inventories are much lower than normal, and diesel and heating oil prices remain high and stoke inflation as they make consumer goods and heating bills more expensive.Households in the Northeast who rely on heating oil for space heating will see 27% higher bills this winter compared to last winter, the EIA said in its Winter Fuels Outlook in October.“Our forecast for heating oil margins this winter reflects price pressures that have currently been affecting the U.S. distillate market, including low inventories, low imports, and limited refining capacity,” the EIA said.For diesel, one fuel supplier has already issued an alert for the East Coast.“East Coast fuel markets are facing diesel supply constraints due to market economics and tight inventories,” Mansfield said last week.“Because conditions are rapidly devolving and market economics are changing significantly each day, Mansfield is moving to Alert Level 4 to address market volatility. Mansfield is also moving the Southeast to Code Red, requesting 72 hour notice for deliveries when possible to ensure fuel and freight can be secured at economical levels,” the supplier said.The Biden Administration hasn’t ruled out the idea of limiting U.S. fuel exports in order to restore inventories and lower prices. Refiners are opposed to that idea,saying that “Banning or limiting the export of refined products would likely decrease inventory levels, reduce domestic refining capacity, put upward pressure on consumer fuel prices, and alienate U.S. allies during a time of war.”Tom Kloza, Global Head of Energy Analysis at OPIS, told USA Today last week, “Between now and the end of November, if we don’t build inventories, the wolf will be at the door.”“And it will look like a big ugly wolf if it’s a cold winter.”
Eversource CEO Warns of Winter Natural Gas Shortage in New England – Eversource CEO Joe Nolan wrote a letter to President Joe Biden last week warning of the possibility of power outages this winter if steps aren't taken to expand the country's natural gas supply. In his letter, dated Oct. 27, Nolan said New England might not have enough natural gas to meet the region's electricity supply if this winter is colder than anticipated. "ISO-New England, the region’s electricity grid operator, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have acknowledged for many months that New England will not have sufficient natural gas to meet power supply needs for the region in the event of a severe cold spell this winter," he said. "This represents a serious public health and safety threat." Nolan spoke to NBC10 Boston about his concerns Monday. "I am worried about a peak day, when we hit a polar vortex," he said. "I do not want be in a situation that they were in Texas or they were in California." Those states have had rolling blackouts in recent years due to insufficient energy. "Consumers in New England are already experiencing skyrocketing electricity and gas costs given supply constraints and global price pressures following the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Nolan added. "As the governors of the New England states mentioned in their letter to the Administration on July 27, New England’s energy situation will have significant implications for customers of all types." He urged Biden to use the federal government's emergency powers to take steps to ensure that adequate fuel resources will be available in the event of a colder than expected New England winter.
Equitrans call for legislation to finish Mountain Valley pipeline - Equitrans Midstream Corp. cited “the continued hostility of the Fourth Circuit Court panel” in calling for expeditious passage of federal energy infrastructure reform legislation that “specifically requires the completion of” its 2-bcfd Mountain Valley (MVP) natural gas pipeline project. The US Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral arguments Oct. 25, 2022, relating to Section 401 water quality certification in West Virginia.The company said that it remains engaged in the federal permitting process but that a combination of the court’s perceived hostility and uncertainty regarding the timelines on which other permitting is proceeding were threatening its ability to meet Mountain Valley’s targeted second-half 2023 in-service date and $6.6-billion total cost. MVP received its Section 401 stream-crossing permit from West Virginia in January 2022, but the permitting has faced nearly continuous legal challenges since.“There continues to be significant, bipartisan support for federal energy infrastructure permitting reform legislation,” Equitrans chief executive officer Thomas Karam said in a release. “However ... the same panel of judges in the US Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals has again been assigned and appears hostile in a (Mountain Valley) permitting case," Karam said. The Fourth Circuit has already vacated multiple project permits.Equitrans has an approximate 48.1% ownership interest in Mountain Valley and will operate the pipeline. Its partners in MVP LLC are NextEra Energy Inc., Consolidated Edison Inc., AltaGas Ltd., and RGC Resources Inc.Equitrans also said the Mountain Valley JV continues to evaluate its 300-MMcfd MVP Southgate project, including engaging in discussions with anchor shipper Dominion Energy North Carolina regarding likely changes to the project design, scope, and timing. MVP LLC last month filed a voluntary dismissal of eminent domain proceedings regarding the 73-mile pipeline (OGJ Online, Oct. 24, 2022).On Sept. 30, 2022, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a draft environmental impact statement for Equitrans’s 350-MMcfd Ohio Valley Connector Expansion Project (OVCX). OVCX is designed to meet growing gas demand through existing interconnects in Clarington, Ohio, with long-haul pipelines. Equitrans is targeting first-half 2024 in-service.
US NatGas Spikes As Temperatures Are About To Dive Nationwide - US natural gas prices catapulted into the stratosphere Monday morning after new two-week weather forecasts showed average temperatures across the country would begin to dive next week, driving up heating demand. NatGas for December delivery soared as much as 13% to $6.40 per million British thermal units in New York. Prices have come off the highs at the start of the US cash session, still up 10%, around $6.27. Bloomberg cited data from private forecaster Maxar Technologies that shows cold weather in the West will traverse the country into the Midwest next week. The two-week outlook for the US Lower 48 shows average temperatures will begin to sink Sunday and fall well below a 30-year mean through the second half of the month. By Nov. 15, average temperatures across the US could average in the mid-30s US Lower 48 heating degree days will rise well above a 30-year trend line, indicating heating demand via households and businesses will soar as colder temps swoop across the nation. "The gas rally underscores how sensitive traders are to potential cold blasts as below-normal stockpiles and booming exports stoke concern about whether supplies will be enough to meet demand in a deep freeze," Bloomberg said. Eli Rubin, an analyst at EBW AnalyticsGroup, said the prospect of colder weather means traders are buying back into NatGas markets. Prices have slumped by more than 35% since August, with hedge funds trimming bullish bets to the lowest in two years -- all because of warmer weather. NatGas appears to have found a near-term bottom as 'Old Man Winter' is set to make an entrance. As a reminder, soaring energy prices mean US households are about to pay 47% more for electricity than a year ago -- making it very costly to heat homes.
December Natural Gas Futures Above $6 Handle as Heating Demand Looms - Colder shifts in weather forecasts for mid-November outweighed the potential for increased storage injections, propelling natural gas futures on Monday. After losing ground to close out last week, the December Nymex gas futures contract climbed 67.1 cents day/day and settled at $6.355/MMBtu. January gained 65.4 cents to $6.607.NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. rose 4.0 cents to $4.385.The latest forecast from Maxar’s Weather Desk Monday showed colder trends day/day for the eastern half of the Lower 48 in the 11- to 15-day period (Nov. 10-14). Both the American and European modeling added several heating degree days to their respective projections, Maxar said.The forecaster said a pattern shift during the 11- to 15-day period would “allow for a colder air flow from the Northwest to the North-Central, while keeping the Southeast on the warmer side.”An outlook for more heating demand toward mid-November was the key catalyst driving Monday’s price spikes, though not the only one, according to EBW Analytics Group senior analyst Eli Rubin. “Speculator net short positioning is likely forcing some traders to buy back positions…amplifying the move higher,” Rubin said. “It would not be surprising to see the Nymex front month extend higher to test the 20-day moving average at $6.47.”It would likely require another “significantly colder weather shift and the timely return of Freeport LNG” to “sustain higher valuations for Nymex gas,” the analyst added. “Still, a continued near-term turn colder could lead to further gains first.”The Freeport liquefied natural gas operation in Texas was forced offline in June after a fire. It is slated to ramp back up in November, helping U.S. exporters meet robust European and Asian LNG demand and providing a bullish undercurrent for Nymex prices.LNG demand in October reached a four-month high at 12.5 Bcf/d, Rubin noted. Freeport’s return could pull up to 2.0 Bcf/d of natural gas from domestic circulation to meet export demand.
Natural Gas Futures Pull Back Despite Production Drop; Cash Prices Fall as Demand Fades - Natural gas futures failed to sustain momentum Tuesday as fresh signs of benign weather and weak demand overshadowed a drop in production. Following a 67.1-cent gain to start the week, the December Nymex gas futures contract on Tuesday settled at $5.714/MMBtu, down 64.1 cents day/day. January fell 52.7 cents to $6.080.NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 41.5 cents to $3.970 as forecasts pointed to warm weather delaying the heating season.As trading got underway Tuesday, both the American and European weather models dropped forecast demand over the prior 12-24 hours, according to NatGasWeather.The outlooks signaled warmer trends next Monday through Nov. 11, with the data “showing cold air over Canada failing to advance as aggressively into the Midwest” as earlier forecasts had hinted, the firm said. “There will be frosty air over Canada Nov. 8-15, but the weather data is struggling to determine just how much of it will arrive into the northern U.S.”This has contributed to uncertainty in the modeling, NatGasWeather said. “It just happened to be colder trends Sunday into Monday before reversing back strongly warmer over the past 12-24 hours,” the firm added.Overall, the updated pattern was “solidly bearish” through the first 11 days of the month, before shifting toward “closer to seasonal” conditions Nov. 12-15, according to NatGasWeather. “Very light demand will continue the next 10 days as warmer-than-normal temperatures rule most of the southern and eastern halves of the U.S.,” the firm said. “There will be chilly weather systems over the Northwest and into the Plains, but not enough to counter comfortable conditions elsewhere.”The latest forecasts outshined a substantial, albeit likely temporary, drop in production.Wood Mackenzie analyst Laura Munder said estimates showed output down 4.4 Bcf/d at 95.9 Bcf/d. “The declines are largely due to the first of the month scheduling and with significant revisions expected,” she said. “However, there is maintenance…impacting the production estimate.”Repair work in Texas and the Rocky Mountains could impact flows this week and curb output modestly, Munder said.That noted, production reached a record level in early October above 101 Bcf/d and has held near that mark since, with the exception of short-term maintenance interruptions. This, in combination with mild autumn weather over the past several weeks, cleared a path for plump storage injections, and analysts anticipate another with this week’s government inventory report.
U.S. natgas falls 5% on big storage build, lower demand forecast (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected storage build and forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Those lower demand forecasts should allow utilities to keep adding gas into storage for a few weeks beyond the usual Oct. 31 end of the injection season. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 107 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Oct. 28. Analysts said the build was bigger-than-normal primarily because the weather last week was mild, keeping heating demand low. That was higher than the 97-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 66 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 45 bcf. Gas futures declined despite forecasts for colder weather that should boost heating demand in mid- to late November, a drop in output so far this month and expectations gas demand will rise once the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas exits an outage. In what has been an extremely volatile week, front-month gas futures fell 29.3 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $5.975 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That follows a rise of 12% on Monday, a drop of 10% on Tuesday and a rise of 10% on Wednesday. Overall, U.S. gas futures are still up about 60% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $36 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $28 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said that average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 97.8 bcfd so far in November, down from a record 99.4 bcfd in October. Traders, however, noted that early-month output figures were usually revised higher later in the month. With the coming of seasonally cooler weather, Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.6 bcfd this week to 99.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.5 bcfd so far in November with the return of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point export plant in Maryland from a maintenance outage, from 11.3 bcfd in October. That is still well below the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March due mostly to the ongoing outage at Freeport. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. During the first 10 months of 2022, roughly 66%, or 7.0 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe, as shippers diverted cargoes from Asia to get higher prices. Last year, just 29%, or about 2.8 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe.
U.S. natgas futures jump 7% in volatile week on cold forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% to a three-week high on Friday at the end of an extremely volatile week of trade on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand in mid-November than previously expected. The market was focused "on the potential arrival of widespread below-average temperatures across the U.S. around mid-November that will increase demand for gas as heating fuel," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates said in a note. Futures also gained support from a drop in output so far this month and expectations the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas would return to service soon, according to traders. Freeport LNG submitted a draft Root Cause Failure Analysis to the Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) on Nov. 1, according to sources familiar with the filing. Freeport LNG, however, has not yet submitted a request to resume service. Freeport LNG said it still expects the 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November following an unexpected shutdown on June 8 caused by a pipeline explosion. At least four vessels were lined up to pick up LNG at Freeport, according to Refinitiv data. Prism Brilliance, Prism Diversity and Prism Courage were waiting off the coast from the plant, and Prism Agility was expected to arrive around Nov. 29. In what has already been an extremely volatile week, front-month gas futures rose 42.5 cents, or 7.1%, to settle at $6.400 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the highest close since Oct. 14. That follows a rise of 12% on Monday, a drop of 10% on Tuesday, a rise of 10% on Wednesday, and a drop of 5% on Thursday. For the week, the contract was up 13% after gaining 15% last week. In the spot market, mild weather and low heating demand pressured gas prices for Friday in the U.S. Northeast, with the Eastern Gas South hub in Pennsylvania at its lowest since November 2020, New York City at its lowest since April 2021, and the Algonquin hub in New England at its lowest since June 2021. Overall, gas futures were up about 72% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $35 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $29 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia.
Chesapeake Aiming to Be Major Natural Gas Supplier in U.S. LNG Capacity Expansion - A revamped Chesapeake Energy Corp. continues streamlining its strategy around supplying natural gas to the Gulf Coast LNG corridor, executives said in an earnings call on Wednesday. The company sees a somewhat softer natural gas market in 2023, with no real structural demand growth until new export capacity comes online starting in 2024. “As export capacity doesn’t begin to increase until at least 2024, we’re setting up our near-term volumes to be relatively flat and begin to ramp slowly as we approach 2024,” CEO Domenic J. Dell’Osso said. Management said the company remained bullish on its Haynesville and Marcellus shale assets. The company would only pull back on its production plans if prices fell to the mid-to-low $3.00/MMBtu range. As part of its liquefied natural gas plan, Chesapeake entered into an agreement with Momentum Midstream LLC to deliver 700 MMcf/d to Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas markets in 2024. Momentum is developing the 1.7 Bcf/d New Generation Gas Gathering system. Along with a supply agreement with Golden Pass LNG Terminal LLC, the company has 1 Bcf/d of capacity to deliver certified gas from the Haynesville to the LNG corridor starting in two years. The company sees already under-construction liquefaction capacity pulling an additional 5.7 Bcf/d of U.S. natural gas by 2025. Chesapeake, once the nation’s largest natural gas producer, emerged from bankruptcy last year when Dell’Osso was tapped to lead the company. The focus has since returned to natural gas production over oil.
New Fortress LNG plant review resumes, start-up slips to 2023 (Reuters) - U.S. firm New Fortress Energy Inc's proposed Louisiana offshore LNG facility likely will not begin operation until the second half of 2023, people familiar with the matter said on Monday. The 2.8 MMtpy export project initially was proposed to start next March but has faced delays during its permit review. U.S. regulators on Friday lifted a stop-clock order. The soonest the facility could begin producing LNG, assuming no further delays, is the second half of next year, one of the people said. The U.S. Department of Transportation's Maritime Administration (MARAD) in August had stopped the clock on a 356 day review process, citing information gaps in the application. "They were not going to make the first half of 2023 deadline as soon as they got the stop-clock letter," Christine Tezak, managing director at energy consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners LLC, told Reuters on Monday. "If New Fortress gets its resume-clock letter today, the earliest they would have approval is early June...so long as the clock is not stopped again and they get all their other approvals," Tezak said. It would take a further two months after approval is received to begin commercial processing. The company has said it will take about 14 to 16 months to fabricate each Fast LNG unit and another 4 to 6 months to install, hook up and commission the units at their offshore sites. Last week, NFE said it finalized a deal with Mexico state power and gas utility Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) to deploy multiple offshore LNG units.
'Hubris': LNG plant officials saw trouble days before blast - For at least two days before a pipe exploded at its Texas gas export terminal, Freeport LNG had been trying to figure out what was wrong, records show. The June 8 blast forced the plant to close and took almost a fifth of U.S. liquefied natural gas exports offline. But there is no indication in an investigatory report obtained by E&E Newsthat the company stopped operating to fix the problem before the explosion. An industrial safety expert called that an expensive mistake. “Why wouldn’t they have taken a shutdown action?” said Faisal Khan, director of the process safety center at Texas A&M University. The managers didn’t halt operations because they didn’t want to acknowledge there was a problem in the plant, according to a consultant hired by the company to do an in-house investigation. “It was hubris,” the consultant said in a recorded conversation with investigators from the fire marshal’s office in Brazoria County, where the plant is located. E&E News obtained the recordings and the report under the Texas Public Information Act. The plant’s managers seemed to assume “‘I know everything, and I couldn’t possibly be running a facility that had a line blocked in,’” the consultant added. The managers brought in an outside engineer to troubleshoot the problem with the pipe the day before the explosion. But the fire marshal’s report says that “someone did not listen to him and react to the pipe moving.” The pipe was filled with liquefied natural gas and was likely blocked for four days by an improperly closed relief valve, causing pipes to move on their support structure as pressure built up, according to the investigator’s report. The explosion caused the price of natural gas in the United States to fall, and it cut off about 17 percent of domestic gas exports at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine has made American energy a crucial worldwide commodity. The plant is on the tiny barrier island of Quintana near the town of Freeport, about 70 miles southwest of Houston. It has equipment that can process up to 2.1 billion cubic feet of gas a day, refrigerating it to negative 260 degree Fahrenheit, which turns the gas into a liquid that can be easily exported on ships. No one was killed or injured in the explosion. Freeport LNG officials declined to comment for this story, and the county investigators didn’t return phone calls seeking comment.
Fire reported at Valero East Plant on Corpus Christi's Refinery Row -- A fire reported at one of Valero's Corpus Christi facilities Thursday morning has been contained and did not result in any injuries, according to an afternoon update from a company spokesperson. Questions regarding the possible cause of the fire and the subsequent damage to the Valero East Plant, 1710 Cantwell Lane, were not immediately answered. Air monitoring conducted in response to the fire has found "no issues of concern," said Darcy Schroeder, a Valero spokesperson, in a written statement. "The safety of our workers and community is our priority," Schroeder said in the noon statement to the Caller-Times. "(W)e appreciate the coordination of efforts with local partners and agencies including the (Refinery Terminal Fire Company), Port of Corpus Christi, City of Corpus Christi, (Texas Commission on Environmental Quality) and the U.S. Coast Guard." TCEQ was notified of the fire at 6:29 a.m. and deployed personnel to the facility to provide assistance and oversight. They are conducting air monitoring in the area, TCEQ spokesperson Gary Rasp said in a written statement. "Valero personnel and their contractors are also conducting air monitoring and have reported no detections of concern at this time. In addition, there were no elevated readings at continuous ambient air monitoring stations in the area," Rasp said. Questions about whether and to what degree operations at the facility could be impacted were not immediately answered. A Reverse Alert issued just before 7:30 a.m. described a fire on Refinery Row that was being contained at a plant. "Response units are currently responding to a localized fire at the Valero East Plant. At this time, there are no off-site impacts and no community action is necessary. More information will be released as available," the alert stated.
Feds: Let Enbridge skip certain Line 5 inspections for 15 years — Detroit News - The U.S. Department of Justice has proposed allowing Enbridge Energy not to perform some in-line inspections on Line 5 for at least 15 years, stating pressure tests conducted in 2017 are sufficient to show the twin pipelines under the Straits of Mackinac are not in danger of rupturing on their own before then.
The nonprofits cleaning up the oil and gas industry’s ‘dirty little secret’ — Curtis Shuck stumbled upon what he calls one of the oil and gas industry’s “dirty little secrets” while visiting Montana for a work-related trip in 2019. It was a rusted, uncapped oil well in the middle of a wheat field — literally a hole in the ground. And there wasn’t just one; there were several. “These were images that I could not get out of my mind that day,” Shuck said. At the time, he had worked for 30 years in the oil and gas industry. “I was alarmed, disappointed, embarrassed and shocked that the industry would leave something like this behind without at least cleaning up after itself. I could not ‘unsee’ this stuff.”The wells aren’t just eyesores. They can leak hydrogen sulfide, benzene and arsenic into the groundwater and are a significant source of methane — a highly flammable, powerful gas that traps heat in the Earth’s atmosphere.Shuck’s discovery in Montana led him to establish the Well Done Foundation, a nonprofit organization that in the past year has plugged more than 22 orphaned and abandoned oil wells in nine states.But there are at least one million more abandoned wells to plug. President Joe Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Package provides up to $4.7 billion to plug some of them, including $560 million awarded this year to 24 states to address some of the worst polluting wells. Some estimates saythe cost to close all of the abandoned wells could be several times more than the amount provided in the infrastructure law.The wells, in backyards, fields and even community parks, were abandoned by oil and gas companies that went bankrupt over the decades. Regulations requiring the wells to be closed, or plugged, didn’t even exist till the middle of the 20th century. But the problem isn’t just historical. One investigation showed the number of such wells has increased 12% since 2008, as companies that were active in the hydraulic fracturing boom defaulted. “Bankruptcy is the business plan for many oil companies,” said Scott Eustis, community science director for the Louisiana-based environmental advocacy group Healthy Gulf.“If the USA wants to tackle the methane issue, we need a larger policy shift, a just transition, because we are likely to see many more wells abandoned at a faster rate in the near future,” he said. “I think we must focus on hiring more workers and getting more of them plugged, in whatever form that takes.” Companies that drill on federal land are required to provide a bond to plug wells when they are done with them, but a 2019 Government Accountability Office report found that in more than 80% of cases, the bonds didn’t provide nearly enough money to properly close the wells. According to the report, the average bond was $2,122 per well. The cost to cap wells starts at about $65,000, said Adam Peltz, a senior attorney at the Environmental Defense Fund who studies the abandoned and orphaned well problem.He points out, however, that federal wells represent just 10% of the onshore wells in the country — the majority are on state land, where oil and gas producers are often allowed to post a single bond for all of their wells in an area or a state. That amount is generally enough to close and cap just a fraction of the wells. “It’s woefully underfunded,” he said.
Drillers ask U.S. to exempt smallest wells from looming methane rule (Reuters) - Oil and gas companies have asked the Biden administration to exempt hundreds of thousands of the nation's smallest wells from upcoming rules requiring drillers to find and plug leaks of methane, according to industry groups, despite studies showing they emit huge amounts of the powerful greenhouse gas. The Independent Petroleum Association of America and a coalition of some 20 state drillers' associations have asked the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to exclude wells producing less than 6 barrels per day from the rule, arguing that including them would be costly and inefficient, according to the IPAA and the Kansas Independent Oil & Gas Association. An EPA official declined to confirm the request or discuss details of the upcoming proposal. Oil and gas production is the source of around a third of the nation's methane emissions and is a key target for the Biden administration as it seeks to combat climate change. The United States is among over 100 countries that have pledged to cut their methane emissions 30% by 2030 from 2020 levels. Biden's EPA last year unveiled a proposal that would require oil and gas companies to monitor 300,000 of their biggest well sites every three months to find and fix leaks, ban the venting of methane produced as a byproduct of crude oil into the atmosphere, and require upgrades to equipment such as storage tanks, compressors, and pneumatic pumps. Those rules will most likely take effect in 2023 and are aimed at slashing methane from oil and gas operations by 74% from 2005 levels by 2035, an amount equivalent to the emissions created by all U.S. passenger cars and planes in 2019, according to an EPA summary. But the rules left aside how the industry should manage methane emissions from its smaller "marginal" wells - those producing less than 15 barrels per day - an issue that will be dealt with in the EPA's supplemental ruling expected in the coming weeks. A source familiar with the administration's plans said the supplemental proposal could be announced at the United Nations climate conference in Egypt in November. Groups representing the owners of low producing wells have told EPA officials they lack the resources to monitor all their sites with the latest technology. They also say smaller wells often produce only insignificant methane emissions that don't warrant the cost and effort of a monitoring program. The problem, environmentalists say, is that collectively, the smaller wells produce a massive amount of climate-damaging methane.
Will Colorado's strict oil and gas rules spread to other states? - — Bill Coffee’s neighbors in this outer suburb of Denver figured they were doomed to lose their fight against the oil company’s plan to drill 26 wells next to their subdivision. But Coffee grew cautiously optimistic as he learned about a 2019 state law that prioritized health, safety and the environment ahead of oil and gas production. “That leveled the playing field, so to say,” Coffee said. It leveled it enough that they won their fight against Occidental Petroleum Corp. Thanks to the law and the concerted efforts of Coffee, his neighbors and activists, state regulators blocked the company’s plan to drill. Colorado’s law and the slew of regulations it engendered were one of the biggest regulatory responses to the fracking-powered drilling resurgence that revived the country’s withered oil industry more than a decade ago. The package, commonly referred to by its legislative moniker, SB-181, led to numerous limits on the oil and gas industry, such as banning routine flaring of gas and requiring wells to be 2,000 feet from homes. The industry warned that the new restrictions would “shut down” Colorado’s energy production. But today, rigs and other heavy drilling equipment are a common sight along the highways north of Denver. Well pads are part of the suburban landscape, along with fast-food joints and stately new signs at subdivision entrances. And Colorado was still the fifth-largest crude oil producer in the country last year. Oil production in Colorado is not back to where it was when the law passed or before the pandemic. There aren’t as many oil and gas jobs, either. But production is down in many states as oil companies cut costs, and oil field employment is down across the board. Some industry executives have now come to accept the rules, even embrace them. There’s a sense that Colorado’s approach is where the industry is headed nationally. That acceptance is part of the reason the industry also fears Colorado’s restrictions might spread to other states. “We certainly worry about things like that making their way outside of Colorado,” said Lynn Granger, executive director of the American Petroleum Institute Colorado. Particularly vexed by the 2,000-foot buffer zone, she worries about opponents arguing that “they’re doing it there, and they were able to make it work.” Granger calls Colorado’s rules “the strictest in the world.” But the new law doesn’t do enough for many environmentalists and local activists. People are still harmed by oil and gas operations, they say, and attempts to help them often come up short.
California's Natural-Gas Bans Push Utility to Find a New Strategy - Southern California Gas will need to spend billions to repurpose its system for a future with fewer gas customers. As California expands its efforts to phase out natural-gas use in homes, the nation’s largest gas utility is trying to reinvent itself for a future in which far fewer customers use its core service. Southern California Gas Co., a unit of Sempra, is studying how to repurpose its system—and handle the costs of doing so—as the state works to ban the sale of gas furnaces and water heatersstarting in 2030. The state’s initiatives are the latest in a series of measures aimed at reducing future gas use to address climate-change concerns. Already, about 50 California cities and towns have regulations in place to ban or limit gas hookups in new buildings.
U.S. oil production nears 12 mln barrels/day, at pre-pandemic high |- U.S. oil output climbed to nearly 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, the highest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as shale companies have said they do not see production accelerating in coming months.Overall U.S. output peaked at 13 million bpd in late 2019, and has not returned to that level since the pandemic started as rigs have been shut in and as costs for equipment and labor increased rapidly. Several U.S. shale producers recently said well results are disappointing, and production is falling short of forecasts. A little over two years after the pandemic wrecked havoc on demand and slashed profits, four of the five largest global oil companies brought in roughly $50 billion in net income in the most recent quarter. U.S. upstream oil companies are expected to bank a 68% increase in free cash flow per barrel in 2022, while output growth lingers at 4.5% year to date, Deloitte said last week. Crude production rose 0.9% to 11.98 million bpd in August, the highest since March 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly 914 production report. In top oil producing states, monthly output rose 1.6% to 5.10 million bpd in Texas and 0.6% to a record 1.58 million bpd in New Mexico, but fell 0.5% to 1.06 million bpd in North Dakota.
Here's how fracking and renewables are changing US energy production - Using annual report info from the Energy Information Administration, OhmConnect looked into how the U.S. generates its power, and how the rise of renewable energy fits into the future landscape. (detailed report w/ graphics) The use of renewable energy sources is on the rise in the U.S., which may be a welcome relief to both Earth and its inhabitants. Sourcing energy from renewables such as solar power, hydropower, and wind offers a plethora of health and sustainability benefits, especially compared to energy sources that release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Considering the volume of U.S. energy use, national over-reliance on GHG-emitting energy sources has been a cause for concern in most scientific circles for decades. Currently, the residential and commercial sectors of the U.S. each consume between 4-7 quadrillion Btu, or British thermal units, of energy annually, while the industrial and transportation sectors use between 22-27 quadrillion Btu. By far the largest energy consumer in the U.S. is the electric power sector, which gobbled up more than 36 quadrillion Btu in 2021.Unfortunately, renewable energy source use pales against sources like natural gas. The Energy Information Administration found that since 2000, natural gas use in the residential sector alone has been more than three times that of renewables, despite an uptick in renewable sourcing since 2010. In the commercial sector, the difference is even more extreme, at nearly four times that of renewables. So, it is of little surprise that hydraulic fracturing (or fracking), which is the method by which natural gas is extracted, dominated U.S. energy production in 2021—a year that also marked the third in a row that annual energy production exceeded energy consumption in the U.S.Fracking is a process fraught with controversy. While it has been a major industry in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Colorado, and the Dakotas for several years, it came to widespread public attention during the 2020 presidential campaign, when both then-President Trump and President Biden used it as a hot-button issue to make their respective energy stances known. The process is currently having a moment in the U.K. as a plinth from which the political right is attempting to address the nation's energy crisis.Both renewables and natural gas energy production reached record highs in 2021; however, even though incentives such as tax credits encourage increasing the use of renewables, fracking remains popular, as it offers what its supporters describe as a much-needed clean energy alternative to petroleum. Using annual report information from the Energy Information Administration, OhmConnect looked into how the U.S. generates its power, and how the rise of renewable energy fits into the future landscape.
Biden eyes new oil taxes, attacks 'windfall of war' - President Joe Biden floated the possibility of new taxes on oil companies yesterday, accusing them of war profiteering as consumers struggle nationwide with high gasoline prices. Speaking at the White House while standing next to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Biden called on energy companies to boost domestic production and refining capacity, adding, “If they don’t, they’re going to pay a higher tax on their excess profits and face other restrictions.” The president said he will work with Congress to “look at these options that are available to us and others.” “It is time for these companies to stop war profiteering, meet their responsibilities to this country, give the American people a break and still do very well,” Biden said. “The American people are going to judge who is standing with them, and who is only looking out for their own bottom line.” The president directly called out Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell PLC for the surging profits they reported in the third quarter. Biden said that instead of increasing production or “giving American consumers a break,” oil and gas firms are returning excess profits to shareholders or stock buybacks. “Give me a break. … Enough is enough,” Biden said, who described himself as a capitalist and said he has no issue with corporations turning a fair profit. “Record profits today are not because they’re doing something new or innovative,” Biden said. “Their profits are a windfall of war, the windfall from the brutal conflict that’s ravaging Ukraine and hurting tens of millions of people around the globe.” For most of the 1980s, the United States had an excise tax on oil that functioned as a windfall tax. It was applied to domestic oil producers when the price of oil rose above a pre-set price, according to a 2006 report from the Congressional Research Service.. But the tax may have reduced domestic production by as much as 8 percent, and it made the United States more dependent on foreign imports, the report said. “We must not doom ourselves by embracing the policy mistakes of the 1980s — where a similar tax ultimately resulted in lower domestic energy production, a higher reliance on foreign sources of energy, and runaway inflation,” Ed Longanecker, president of the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association, said in a statement. The American Petroleum Institute Monday also slammed Biden’s proposed windfall tax on oil and gas companies. “Oil companies do not set prices — global commodities markets do. Increasing taxes on American energy discourages investment in new production, which is the exact opposite of what is needed,” Mike Sommers, API’s president and CEO, said in a statement. “American families and businesses are looking to lawmakers for solutions, not campaign rhetoric,”
Biden threatens oil companies with ‘higher tax’ if they don’t increase production - President Biden on Monday warned that oil companies would face a “higher tax” on their excess profits if they don’t reinvest in increasing production to bring down prices at the pump. “They have a responsibility to act in the interest of their consumers, their community and their country, to invest in America by increasing production and refining capacity,” Biden said of the companies during a speech on Monday afternoon. “If they don’t, they’re going to pay a higher tax on their excess profits and face other restrictions,” he added in the remarks from the White House just more than a week before the midterm elections. Biden can’t unilaterally impose a tax on companies; he would need a new law to pass Congress. He pledged to work with the legislature to look at his options. His comments come after ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell reported high third-quarter earnings. The president name-checked both Exxon and Shell in his speech. Legislation would face a tough path even in a Congress held by Democrats, since at least 10 GOP votes would now be needed to break a filibuster in the Senate. Republicans are hoping the midterms will deliver GOP majorities in both chambers. Gas prices soared earlier this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western and U.S. sanctions on Moscow, a major oil producer. Biden and his allies have blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the high prices, and have also tried to pin the blame on the industry. Analysts have attributed this year’s high gas prices not only to the war, but to a rebound in demand after the pandemic as well as refinery closures and outages.
North America Leads $370 Billion Global Push For Oil & Gas Pipelines - This year, the United States became the world's biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter as deliveries to energy-starved buyers in Europe and Asia surged. In the current year, five developers have signed over 20 long-term deals to supply more than 30 million metric tons/year of LNG or roughly 4 Bcf/d, to energy-starved buyers in Europe and Asia. Unfortunately, whereas the United States has the world’s largest backlog of near-shovel-ready liquefied natural gas projects, takeaway constraints including limited pipeline capacity are seen as the biggest hurdle to growth of the sector. In the Appalachian Basin, the country’s largest gas-producing region churning out more than 35 Bcf/d, environmental groups have repeatedly stopped or slowed down pipeline projects and limited further growth in the Northeast. Indeed, EQT Corp. CEO Toby Rice recently acknowledged that Appalachian pipeline capacity has “hit a wall.” Luckily, the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale are still able to shoulder much of the growth forecast for LNG exports including pipeline development. Analysts at East Daley Capital Inc. have projected that U.S. LNG exports will grow to 26.3 Bcf/d by 2030 from their current level of nearly 13 Bcf/d. For this to happen, the analysts say another 2-4 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity would need to come online between 2026 and 2030 in the Haynesville. According to RigZone, initial findings from Westwood’s upcoming onshore pipeline market forecast has revealed that between 2022 and 2028, the world will spend ~$369B on 310,000km of new oil and gas pipelines, with North America responsible for the lion’s share. The forecast says that 205,000km, or two-thirds of total installations, will be gas pipelines, with several projects already lined up in the United States. According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), four U.S. LNG projects are currently under construction, and another 12 have won regulatory approval by federal regulators while four more have been proposed totaling 40 Bcf/d of potential LNG exports. The pivotal Permian Basin is preparing to unleash a torrent of gas and gas projects to meet exploding LNG and nat. gas demand. Energy Transfer LP (NYSE: ET) is looking tobuild the next large pipeline to transport natural gas production from the Permian Basin. The company is also working on the Louisiana-based Gulf Run pipeline, which will transport gas from the Haynesville Shale in Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana to the Gulf Coast. Heavy investment in O&G pipelines is also anticipated in China as the country looks to boost imports, including the West-East Gas Pipelines 4 & 5 (a combined 6,323km) and the Xinjiang Coal-to-Gas pipeline (8,372km). Strong activity is also expected in Eastern Europe & FSU, driven by the construction of additional pipeline capacity in Russia to serve Asian markets. In Africa, the proposed 6,500km-Central African Pipeline System designed to link 11 countries and improve energy security in the region could potentially mark one of the biggest pipeline projects on the continent.
Pemex’s crude oil exports rise 30% in September, production stable - Mexican state oil firm Pemex recorded a 30% monthly jump in crude exports in September from the prior month, boosted by soaring demand from Europe and Asia following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pemex said in a weekend report it had exported 1.21 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil compared with 914,665 bpd in August. Exports were up 23% year-on-year, from the 983,000 bpd recorded last September. The Mexican government, which had said that this year it would move toward refining more oil at home, took advantage of the higher prices that followed Russia’s war in Ukraine. Pemex said shipments of crude destined for Europe – which is looking to wean itself off Russian oil – surged 85% in September from August to reach 149,734 bpd, while shipments to Asia were up 80% at 292,008 bpd. While the company continued to ship largely to the Americas, sales to the region fell 14% to 579,840 bpd compared to August. The average price of the Mexican export mix in September fell slightly from previous months to $82.36 per barrel, Pemex said. Crude production remained stable at 1.77 million bpd. While fuel oil production in September reached its highest level this year at 278,888 bpd, gasoline output dropped slightly to 242,000 bpd. Pemex said last week that crude processing in its six local refineries had grown to an average of about 800,000 bpd. The figure for September stood at 779,664 bpd and 820,000 the previous month.
Venezuela’s Oil Exports Plunge In October --Venezuela’s crude and product exports slumped in October from September and from October last year due to lower oil production, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing ship-tracking data and export figures of state oil firm PDVSA. Venezuela’s exports of crude oil and products averaged 533,968 barrels per day (bpd) last month, PDVSA and Refinitiv Eikon vessel-tracking data showed. The exports in October were 25% lower than in September and 23% lower than the volumes exported in October last year. Lower production was the main reason for the lower exports. Most of the oil cargoes that departed from Venezuela in October were headed to Asia, mostly Malaysia and China, via intermediaries, according to the data cited by Reuters. Petrochemical and oil by-product exports, however, rose, partly offsetting the low crude and product exports. October saw the fourth-lowest monthly exports of oil from Venezuela, which has been grappling with U.S. sanctions on its exports, a lack of investment in aging infrastructure, and foreign oil firms backing out of the sector in the country holding the world’s largest oil reserves. Venezuela’s crude oil production dropped in September compared to August, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) by OPEC. According to OPEC’s secondary sources, Venezuela’s crude output fell by 19,000 bpd from August to 659,000 bpd in September. Venezuela’s self-reported figures to OPEC showed a decline of 57,000 bpd to 666,000 bpd.
Petrobras reports $8.8bn in net profit in Q3 2022 -- Brazil’s state-run oil firm Petrobras has reported a 47.6% increase in net profit for the the third quarter (Q3) of 2022, due to higher prices of Brent crude.The firm’s net profit stood at $8.8bn for the third quarter that ended on 30 September 2022, compared with $5.9bn in the same period a year ago.Net revenue for the quarter was $32.41bn, an increase from $23.25bn reported in Q3 2021. Petrobras CFO Rodrigo Araujo Alves said: “From the financial point of view, we brought our cash position to a level more compatible with the financial needs of the company, considering that besides cash balances of $6.8bn, we have access to revolving credit facilities, resulting in additional liquidity to the company should stress scenarios eventually materialise.”
Energy giant Repsol fined again after Peru oil spill - Peru’s environmental authorities announced new fines Monday against Spanish energy giant Repsol totaling more than $10 million — the latest sanction for an oil spill that polluted beaches and cost thousands their livelihoods. Almost 12,000 barrels of crude spilled into the sea off Peru on January 15 as a tanker unloaded oil at a Repsol-owned refinery. Peru said more than 700,000 people were affected by the spill which forced the closure of 20 beaches and dozens of tourism businesses. At least 5,000 fishers and shopkeepers lost their livelihoods. Repsol had blamed the spill on freak waves caused by a volcanic eruption more than 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) away near Tonga. The environment ministry said Monday that its Environmental Assessment and Monitoring Agency (OEFA) fined Repsol $3.5 million for reporting “false information” about the extent of the spill, and another $7.3 million for not doing enough to contain and clean up the mess. In July, the OEFA had fined Repsol another $1.3 million for “failing to identify” the areas affected by the spill. Repsol and five other companies also face civil lawsuits in Peru for $4.5 billion in damages to the environment and individuals. On its website, Repsol Peru says that its La Pampilla Refinery, where the spill took place, had signed compensation agreements with more than 3,200 families and others affected, including ice cream and umbrella vendors, and motorcycle taxi drivers.
UK Mulls Extending Windfall Tax On Oil & Gas Companies - Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is considering extending the UK’s windfall tax on oil and gas companies as he looks for ways to plug a £35 billion ($40 billion) budget hole. Hunt is looking at a significant expansion of the tax, raising the rate to 30 per cent from 25 per cent and imposing it until 2028 rather than 2026, according to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke anonymously about plans that aren’t finalized. The chancellor is also considering extending it to electricity generators, the person said. Hunt has warned he faces “decisions of eye-watering difficulty” as he prepares to announce an Autumn Statement on Nov. 17 that amounts to a budget in all but name. He’s seeking to make £50 billion of tax rises and spending cuts to provide extra headroom above the UK’s fiscal gap so that his plans have credibility with the markets. The plans to extend the windfall tax were reported first by Thursday’s Times and also the Sunday Times. The Times said the move would increase revenues from the existing tax by 50 per cent to £40 billion over five years, although that’s dependent on volatile energy prices. The government has come under increasing pressure to target energy firms for extra revenue amid surging profits. Shell Plc didn’t pay the UK windfall tax in the third quarter, a period in which its profit doubled to $9.45 billion, because it was making big investments in North Sea fields. Internal Treasury estimates suggest UK gas producers and electricity generators could make excess profits of up to £170 billion over the next two years.
Shell Paid No Windfall Tax in UK Despite Record Global Profits - Oil giant Shell has paid no windfall tax in the UK and said it did not expect to this year, despite making a record $30 billion in global profits so far in 2022, The Guardian reported. Companies are allowed to reduce their tax payments if they make investments in production, and Shell wasn’t liable because it shifted its third-quarter profits into investments in oil drilling in the North Sea, reported Bloomberg Tax. But this comes at a time when many people in the UK are struggling to pay their energy bills, and there have been calls for the government to make changes to the tax levy, which was meant to raise billions of dollars to help with the cost of living crisis. General Secretary of the Trade Union Congress Frances O’Grady said Shell’s profits were “obscene — especially at a time when millions are struggling with soaring bills. The government has run out of excuses. It must impose a higher windfall tax on oil and gas companies. The likes of Shell are treating families like cash machines,” BBC News reported. The energy profits tax was originally introduced in May by former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who became the UK’s new prime minister earlier this week. Following political pressure, Sunak had admitted energy companies were “making extraordinary profits, not as the result of recent changes to risk-taking or innovation or efficiency, but as the result of surging global commodity prices driven in part by Russia’s war” in Ukraine, reported The Guardian. But extreme reductions to the tax were offered for investment in oil drilling in the North Sea, to the tune of about $1.05 for each $1.16 invested. The levies also didn’t apply to trading gas and oil shipments and other highly-profitable activities like refining. Shell’s Chief Financial Officer Sinead Gorman said the company didn’t anticipate paying any energy profits taxes for 2022.
Strong Quarter For BP Enables $2.5B Share Buyback - BP Plc posted its second-highest quarterly profit on record and announced a further $2.5 billion of share buybacks, capping a stellar period for Big Oil after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed up energy prices. The strong earnings, which included an “exceptional” performance from gas trading, is delivering a windfall for investors, but also stoking the ire of politicians who are grappling with the economic damage from soaring inflation and rising interest rates. BP shares rose 1.1% to 484.9 pence as of 8:02 a.m. in London. BP’s home country of the UK has already imposed additional taxes on the oil industry, and companies could face more levies as US President Joe Biden and some other European governments seek to mitigate the impact of high energy prices. BP’s adjusted net income was $8.15 billion, just below the record set in the second quarter, but still well ahead of the average analyst estimate of $6.18 billion, the company said in a statement on Tuesday. It’s more than double the level from a year ago. BP actually reported a net loss of $2.2 billion for the period, mainly due to an accounting adjustment required by changes in forward gas prices. It’s another sign of how volatile global gas markets are having a big impact on the industry’s accounts, working capital and cash flows. That volatility, however, swelled the earnings contribution from BP’s large and opaque trading unit. Adjusted third-quarter profit for the gas and low carbon energy unit was $6.24 billion, exceeding the profit the business made in the first nine months of 2021. “The exceptional gas trading result is particularly impressive given the Freeport LNG outage,” RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria said in a note, referring to the Texas liquefied natural gas plant that was shut by a fire in June. Bumper profits have been used to pay down debt and reward shareholders. The company’s latest share buyback brings total repurchases announced in 2022 to $8.5 billion. Net debt fell to $22 billion, dropping at a slower pace than prior quarters but still down by almost $10 billion from a year earlier.
World needs to accept the urgent need for fossil fuel investment now, BP CEO says - BP's strategy is centered around investing in hydrocarbons whilst simultaneously putting money into the planned energy transition, the oil and gas supermajor's CEO said Monday. "What the world needs, more than ever right now, is a conversation and a series of actions that are involved in the practicalities and realities of today and tomorrow," Bernard Looney, who was appearing on a panel discussion moderated by CNBC's Hadley Gamble, said. "And by that I mean, our strategy as BP — which we're executing in the U.K., we're working on here in the Middle East and we're doing it in the United States and across the world — is to invest in hydrocarbons today, because today's energy system is a hydrocarbon system," he added. Speaking at the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi, Looney said his company was "obviously trying to produce those hydrocarbons with the lowest possible emissions" whilst at the same time investing in "accelerating the energy transition." "And we're doing that in Britain, we're doing that in the United States, we're doing it here," he said, namechecking carbon capture, electric vehicle charging, hydrogen and offshore wind. A major producer of oil and gas, BP says it's aiming to become a net-zero company by the year 2050 or before. It's one of many major firms to have made a net-zero pledge in recent years. While such commitments draw attention, actually achieving them is a huge task with significant financial and logistical hurdles. The devil is in the detail and goals can often be light on the latter.
Russia accuses Britain of blowing up Nord Stream pipelines - The Russian government has accused Britain of playing a major role in the September 26 blowing up of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. Powerful underwater explosions blew gaping holes in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which carry Russian natural gas 760-miles under the Baltic Sea to Germany. The pipelines have a joint annual capacity to provide 110 billion cubic metres of gas, more than 50 percent of Russia’s normal gas export volumes. On Saturday, a spokesperson for Russia’s defence ministry said, “According to available information, representatives of this unit of the British Navy took part in the planning, provision and implementation of a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26 this year blowing up the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines.” The “unit of the British Navy” referred to, as the spokesperson later detailed, were British operatives “in the city of Ochakiv, Mykolaiv region, Ukraine.” The explosions destroyed tens of billions of dollars in infrastructure vital to financing Russia’s economy, and powering and heating European industry and households. Russia’s state-owned energy company Gazprom is the main owner of the pipelines. The leaks took place on international waters, but of the four explosions two of them were in the Danish exclusive economic zone and two in the Swedish zone, close to the Baltic Sea island of Bornholm. Nord Stream 1 had been operating for nearly 11 years, while Nord Stream 2 contained gas but had not yet been brought into commercial operation, owing to pressure by Washington on Germany and other EU powers. The spokesperson also alleged UK involvement in Saturday’s attacks on Russian ships in the Black Sea. He stated, “At 4.20am today, the Kyiv regime carried out a terrorist attack on Black Sea Fleet ships and civilian vessels. “Preparation for the terrorist act and training of military personnel of the Ukrainian 73rd Special Operations Centre Marine Unit was carried out under the guidance of British specialists who were in the city of Ochakiv, Mykolaiv region, Ukraine. “It should be stressed that the Black Sea Fleet vessels that suffered the terrorist attack are involved in ensuring the security of the grain corridor as part of the international initiative to export agricultural products from Ukrainian ports.” Britain’s Ministry of Defence denied the accusations, saying they were made to distract from Russia’s “disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine”. Russia’s statement comes after weeks of insinuations by Britain and other NATO allies that the blowing up of its own pipeline was an act of sabotage by Russia. The incident has been used to further ramp up hostilities between NATO and Russia, with the activation of NATO's Article 5 collective defence clause being mooted.
Norway Deploys Armed Forces To Guard Its Vast Gas Pipeline Network - Norway took immediate action after the 26 September discovery of the severely damaged Nord Stream 1 & 2 gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea of the Danish and Swedish coasts to increase pipeline inspections on its 8,800-km pipeline network connecting Norway with continental Europe and Britain. “Together with Equinor, we have intensified the inspection programme based on this situation,” Gassco Chief Executive Frode Leversund said in an interview. Bolstering its response, Norway has deployed its armed forces to guard the pipelines and offshore platforms. The Nordic country has become Europe’s top pipeline gas supplier since Russia cut deliveries to the region following its invasion of Ukraine, with Moscow blaming the cuts on technical issues caused by Western sanctions. “We are doing more inspections now than we would have done in a normal situation,” Mr Leversund added. “Under its regular maintenance programme, inspections are risk-based,” he explained. According to Refinitiv vessel-tracking data, the Havila Subsea offshore supply vessel - equipped with remotely operated subsea vehicles - has spent the last weeks seemingly inspecting Norwegian pipelines to Germany and Belgium. Another vessel, the Volantis, has visited the key Sleipner gas transport hub, as well as another section of the Statpipe and Norpipe links ending at Germany’s Emden terminal.
U.S. LNG Cannot Replace The Russian Natural Gas That Europe Has Lost - Europe cannot rely solely on imports of U.S. LNG to offset the pipeline gas supply it will have lost from Russia when it starts rebuilding inventories after the end of this winter, according to BloombergNEF.So far this year, American LNG has been crucial in meeting demand in Europe, which is scrambling for gas supply and willing to pay up for spot deliveries, outbidding most of Asia.The United States is shipping record volumes of LNG to Europe to help EU allies and nearly 70% of all American LNG exports were headed to Europe in September, according to Refinitiv Eikon data cited by Reuters. However, the significant drop in Russian gas supply this year occurred only in June, meaning that Europe could still stock up on some Russian gas earlier this year.Ahead of the 2023/2024 winter, however, the gap in gas supply in Europe will be much wider without Russian gas. Europe will not be importing much Russian gas—or none at all if Russia cuts off deliveries via the one link left operational via Ukraine and via TurkStream—compared to relatively stable imports from Russia in the first half of this year, before Moscow started gradually cutting volumes via Nord Stream in June until shutting down the pipeline in early September.“The year-on-year increase is not sufficient to offset a total cut in Russian piped supply with under half of these volumes met by LNG increases,” BNEF analyst Arun Toora said.“The good news is that Russia looks close to having played its last card in terms of gas leverage over Europe. However Europe’s challenges will not disappear with the daffodils next spring,” London-based consultancy Timera Energy said in a winter gas market outlook at the beginning of October.Without most of the Russian gas supply, Europe will likely need to offset around 40 bcm of additional lost Russian flows next year. LNG alone cannot meet this volume, considering a lack of new global liquefaction capacity in the short-term, including in the U.S., limited further demand elasticity in Asia, and European regasification capacity constraints. Therefore, European demand will need to fall, Timera Energy said.
No Easy Fix For European Energy Crisis -A Russian gas-reliant Europe has no quick and easy fixes for the sky-high energy prices and the crisis it is currently facing. Piped gas imports from Russia are 80% down on last year, sending prices through the roof, and it will take time to resolve energy prices. Like the market for commodities such as oil, copper, and wheat, the current market model in the European power sector is based on marginal pricing. Essentially, that means that market prices are decided based on the variable cost of the most expensive source required to serve demand. With gas-fired generators providing Europe’s marginal power supply, gas costs are the major factor behind current high-power prices. It is worth noting that high gas prices are a significant issue, but they aren’t the only problem the European power sector faces. Major losses of electricity production from nuclear and hydro have defined Europe’s power supply mix in 2022 so far. In France, safety inspections and repairs have caused a loss of over 60 TWh in nuclear output over the first three-quarters of the year – with annual production likely to fall beyond a 30-year low – while in Germany the retirement of three reactors at the end of 2021 has meant the loss of over 25 TWh of generation so far this year. Germany will now retain its three remaining reactors in case of emergency. In France, the ongoing inspection program means 2023 production estimates are a little better than for this year. Meanwhile, Europe’s drought has led to a 60 TWh reduction in hydro generation, while low river levels have also put some coal deliveries at risk. With this year’s summer heatwave increasing air conditioning use, overall demand losses have remained small. As a result, the sector has very few options to boost supply, and the contribution of gas and coal generators have both increased. In the short term, wind – up 34 TWh – and solar – 27 TWh – have partly filled the gap in supply. However, solar will contribute far less over the winter, while low reserves mean hydro can be of little help to redress the short-term supply imbalance. Switching away from gas will therefore mean using more coal, plus nuclear and, to a far lesser extent, oil. Unfortunately, the ability of all three is limited, although Germany is allowing mothballed coal plants to restart and postponing closures. Coal generation is up 30 TWh year-to-date, but this is almost entirely in Germany and Italy. So far power demand has remained relatively resilient, but the EU has acted to bring forward arrangements to procure load reduction during peak periods and encourage steps to lower overall demand. However, interruptions or selective rationing cannot be ruled out as a last resort to maintain supplies to critical and vulnerable consumers.
TTF’s Premium Over Asian Spot LNG Price Narrows Sharply – The TTF front-month contract has fallen by 31% since the start of October. The TTF’s premium over the East Asia Index (EAX) was nearly $13.00/MMBtu at the beginning of October and has since narrowed to less than $5.50/MMBtu as the outright price has fallen as well. Price spreads to other European hubs have also narrowed in recent sessions. The week saw some demand for LNG cargoes for December delivery, with South Korea coming to the market with long-term demand. Europe saw its third highest ever imports in October, and the week saw Greek companies securing unloading slots at the Revithoussa terminal. Producer KUFPEC is selling an FOB cargo from its Australian Wheatstone LNG plant for a 19-24 December loading window. Japanese trading firm Diamond Gas International (DGI) has issued a 9 December FOB sell tender from the Cameron facility in the US. The tender closes on 4 November. Middle Eastern producer Oman LNG awarded at least 1 cargo close to $20.00/MMBtu on an FOB basis from the Qalhat facility. The tender closed on 1 November. Oman had offered an FOB two-cargo tender for 16-20 November loading and the other for late December. A third FOB cargo may be offered in January. In longer term demand, South Korean company KOSPO was seeking 15-year supply for up to 0.3mtpa to 0.4mtpa, starting from 2026. The tender closes on 7 November. In October, European LNG imports totalled 9.7m tonnes, which was the third highest on record, according to ICIS LNG Edge data. This includes the UK, but not Turkey. By far, the US was the largest single supply source by country at 4.1m tonnes, the highest since April The second-largest supply source was Qatar, bringing 1.9m tonnes in Europe, in line with the previous two months. As many as 55 cargoes have confirmed destinations into Europe for November, with most expected in the first half of the month.
Oil CEOs say this winter is not the season to worry about when it comes to the energy crisis — Politicians and governments around the world are bracing for potential civil unrest as many countries grapple with mounting energy costs and rising inflation. The global economy is facing an onslaught from multiple sides — a war in Europe, and shortages of oil, gas and food, and high inflation, each of which has worsened the next. Concerns are centered on the coming winter, especially for Europe. Cold weather, combined with an oil and gas shortage stemming from Western sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, threatens to upend lives and businesses. But as much worry as there is ahead of this winter, it's really the winter of 2023 that people should be worried about, major oil and gas executives have warned. "We've got a difficult winter ahead, and subsequent to that we've got a more difficult winter in the year ahead of that, because the production that is available to Europe in the first half of 2023 is considerably less than the production we had available to us in the first half of 2022," Russell Hardy, CEO of major oil trader Vitol, told CNBC's Hadley Gamble during a panel at the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi. "So the consequences of energy shortage and therefore price escalation, all of the things that have been discussed here about the cost of living, the expectation of problems ahead, clearly need to be thought about in that context," he said. We are in good shape for this winter. But as we said, the issue is not this winter. It will be the next one, because we are not going to have Russian gas. CEO Bernard Looney, speaking at the same panel, agreed. Energy prices "are approaching unaffordability," with some people already "spending 50% of their disposable income on energy or higher," he said. But through a combination of high gas storage levels and government spending packages to subsidize people's bills, Europe may be able to manage the crisis this year. "I think it has been addressed for this winter," Looney said. "It's the next winter I think many of us worry, in Europe, could be even more challenging." The CEO of Italian oil and gas giant Eni expressed the same worry. For this winter, Europe's gas storage is around 90% full, according to the International Energy Agency, providing some assurance against a major shortage. But a large proportion of that is made up of Russian gas imported in previous months, as well as gas from other sources that was easier than usual to buy since major importer China was buying less due to its slower economic activity. "We are in good shape for this winter," Eni chief Claudio Descalzi said. "But as we said, the issue is not this winter. It will be the next one, because we are not going to have Russian gas – 98% [less] next year, maybe nothing."
Europe Faces 1 Tcf Natural Gas Shortfall Next Winter, IEA Warns - Europe could face a 30 billion cubic meter (Bcm) natural gas shortfall for the 2023-2024 winter if the European Union (EU) doesn’t start planning ahead now, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report released Thursday. That’s the equivalent of about 1 Tcf of natural gas. And even though European gas storage facilities are currently 95% full, or about 5 Bcm (176 Bcf) above their 5-year average, it is wrong to expect the same conditions in 2023, the IEA warned. “With the recent mild weather and lower gas prices, there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe’s gas supplies, but we are by no means out of the woods yet,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. A gas supply shortfall next year could mean Europe would lack half the volume it needs to fill storage facilities up to 95%, which means inventories would only reach 65% of capacity for the 2023-2024 winter season. Russian gas deliveries were close to normal for the first half of this year, but they’ve been cut dramatically since. Total pipeline supply from Russia to the EU in 2022 is likely to amount to around 60 Bcm (2.1 Tcf), according to the report, “but it is highly unlikely that Russia will deliver another 60 Bcm of pipeline gas in 2023 – and Russian deliveries to Europe could halt completely.” “The IEA has rightly pointed out a more challenging time in 2023 than in 2022,” senior researcher Marco Giuli, of the Brussels School of Governance in Belgium, told NGI. “This winter might leave us with very low inventories,” he added. “Under an optimistic assumption, the current Russian flows through Ukraine and TurkStream might continue, but we’ll be nowhere near the amount of Russian gas imported in 2022. The shortfall will especially hit the region that used to be served by Nord Stream.”
The Israel-Lebanon Agreement Could Be A Game Changer For Natural Gas Markets - Israel and Lebanon announced earlier this month that they had come to an agreement over their maritime border, a historic step in diplomacy that should help boost the natural gas output of both countries. As the world battles gas shortages going into the winter months, this deal provides a ray of hope for global energy markets in the future. The most recent negotiations, led by the U.S., had been taking place over several months, with the impetus for a deal beginning in 2020. The final agreement is expected to “strengthen Israel’s security, inject billions into Israel’s economy, and ensure the stability of our northern border”, according to Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s president, Michel Aoun, stated that the deal “satisfies Lebanon, meets its demands, and preserves its rights to its natural resources.”It appeared last minute as if the deal might not pass as Israel was prepared to reject Lebanon’s final draft of the agreement. However, due to mounting pressure to pass a deal before Aoun steps down at the end of October, and elections take place in Israel on 1st November, the two rival states came to an agreement. Lebanon’s powerful Shia group, Hezbollah, is also backing the agreement due to the country’s dire economic situation. However, the maritime border agreement should not be conflated with a peace agreement, which still appears a long way off. Israel will now be able to produce natural gas from the Karish maritime reservoir, which, along with the Tanin field, is believed to hold 2 to 3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 million barrels of liquids. This is a shift, as Lebanon previously held claim to part of the Karish field. European and North American powers are eager for Israeli production to begin in the field, to alleviate the pressures of global gas shortages. Meanwhile, Lebanon will exploit Qana, the neighboring field. Several TotalEnergies representatives have traveled to Beirut to discuss the immediate exploration and development of the gas field. While the deal marks significant progress in the relations between the two countries, experts have been quick to criticize the deal due to certain undefined terms leaving space for ambiguity. While Lebanon will be given production rights in the Qana field, Israel will be entitled to a share of the royalties through an agreement with TotalEnergies, as the field crosses the maritime border into Israeli waters. The agreement does not stipulate the share of profit distribution that Israel will receive from Qana, which could lead to further disagreements in the future. The deal states: “Israel shall work with the Bloc 9 Operator in good faith to ensure that this agreement is resolved in a timely fashion.” Essentially, Lebanon’s development of Qana requires Israel to come to an agreement with Total before it can proceed. This comes at a time when Lebanon is facing severe energy shortages that have led to long blackout periods as it tackles a major financial crisis.
QatarEnergy in talks for 30% in Lebanon offshore gas project - State-owned QatarEnergy is in talks with the Lebanese government to take a 30 percent stake in an offshore exploration block and is also negotiating with TotalEnergies and Eni on this matter, CEO Saad al-Kaabi confirmed on Sunday. Two sources said last week that TotalEnergies and the Lebanese government reached a deal handing the French oil major temporary majority control of the block and paving the way for negotiations with Qatar over a stake in the gas project. “We are in the process of discussing that with the government of Lebanon and the partners, Total and Eni for a participation of around 30 percent ownership of that exploration block,” al-Kaabi said. “In due course when we get that basically finalised as an agreement and we sign that agreement, we will announce it.” The initial exploration licence was held by a three-part consortium of TotalEnergies, Italy’s Eni, and Russia’s Novatek. Beirut announced in September that Novatek, which held a 20 percent stake, would exit. Offshore areas in the eastern Mediterranean and Levant have yielded major gas discoveries in the past decade. Interest in these has grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted gas supplies.
EU Threatens Secondary Sanctions Against Turkey Amid Row Over NATO Bids, Russian Ties --Türkiye continues to exasperate Washington and Brussels with its willingness to chart its own course in its relationship with Russia. While ties between Ankara and Moscow grow stronger, the Turkish relationship with NATO is on the rocks. Washington is using Greece and Cyprus to increase pressure on Türkiye in the Eastern Mediterranean, and Türkiye continues to block the NATO bids of Sweden and Finland.Meanwhile the EU is reportedly discussing applying extraterritorial sanctions on Türkiye (pushed by members Greece and Cyprus) in what would be a major escalation. From Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: The EU diplomats I spoke to on the condition of anonymity indicated that the move to broaden the scope of EU sanctions should primarily be read as scare tactics to force third countries into aligning with the EU position on the issue. Some countries, notably EU candidate countries Serbia and Türkiye, have not followed Brussels’ lead on sanctions to date…It was Cyprus and Greece who were allegedly instrumental in pushing for the bloc going toward extraterritoriality. Does that mean Türkiye might be in the crosshairs? In a leaked European Commission document assessing the impact of the EU’s Russia sanctions so far — a document seen by RFE/RL — Türkiye, alongside China, is mentioned in a subchapter on circumvention with the text stating that “the value of Türkiye’s exports to Russia nearly doubled since the second quarter [of 2022].” The document also states that “exports of some member states to Türkiye have also risen sharply over 2022.”The threats of secondary sanctions come on the heels of the Netherlands-based operator of TurkStream, South Stream Transport, temporarily losing its export license after it was judged to be in breach of EU sanctions against Russia. Countries receiving gas via TurkStream include Türkiye, Greece, Serbia, Hungary, Romania, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.Ankara and Moscow are also pressing ahead with plans to make Türkiye a natural gas hub for Europe – an irritating thought for Washington and many in Europe who want to completely end the relationship with Russian energy no matter the economic costs to the EU.Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking to the media about the Nord Stream pipelines and plans with Türkiye on Oct. 31, said:It is difficult for us to control the situation because the [Nord Stream] site is in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark, Sweden and, farther, Germany.In this sense, it is easier for us to work with Turkiye, first of all, because President Erdogan keeps his word. If we come to an agreement on something – this may be difficult to do, but if we come to an agreement, we try to implement it. It was the first point. And secondly, it is easier for us to control the Black Sea area.Therefore, it is a perfectly realistic project, and we can accomplish it relatively quickly. And there will be enough of those wishing to sign contracts. I have no doubt about that.
Turkey and Iran Reach New Gas Exports Deal - Turkey’s state-owned energy company, BOTAS Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, has signed a new deal with the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) to export more natural gas to Turkey, a senior NIGC official privy to the deal announced last week. According to the report published by the Moderndiplomacy on October 24, Dispatching Director Mohammadreza Jolaei disclosed that high-level meetings had been held by the parties involved and an agreement reached. Jolei added that all the operational, technical, and executive frameworks for exporting Iranian gas to Turkey would be finalized in the next six months, given the agreement between the Iranian and Turkish gas officials. The agreed measures include but are not limited to the operational plans, cathodic protection, maintenance and repair services, coverage of gas pipelines between Turkey and Iran, renovation and upgrade of the Bazargan Station, and other cases related to gas export from Iran to Turkey. The expert-level meeting’s discussions also covered the gas transmission capacity, engineering, and technical services, as well as other fields of cooperation. “The significant position of the country in the world’s energy market must be taken into serious consideration, and consequently, effective steps must be taken to remove barriers and challenges,” the official stressed. The Islamic Republic of Iran is Turkey’s second-largest natural gas supplier after Russia, delivering 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually under a 25-year deal agreed upon by both countries. The Iranian gas is delivered to Turkey through a 2,577 km (1,601 miles) pipeline stretching from Tabriz to Turkey’s capital, Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that Turkey would continue buying energy supplies from Iran despite the US re-introducing the crippling sanctions on Tehran in November 2018.
Japan seeks to stay in Russia's Sakhalin-1 energy project after Exxon exit -- The Japanese government has decided to remain involved in the formerly Exxon-led Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project in Russia, Nikkei has learned, as it seeks a stable supply of energy despite international sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. ExxonMobil, which held a 30% stake in Sakhalin-1, announced in March that it would withdraw from the project. Remaining investors forced to decide whether to accept Moscow's new terms.
Former Exxon Oil Project In Russia Ramping Up Exports -Oil exports from Sakhalin-1 are ramping up after Russia took control of the project in the nation’s Far East from Exxon Mobil Corp., which had pledged to exit the country following the invasion of Ukraine. Two tankers recently loaded Sokol crude from the De-Kastri terminal and both vessels have signaled Yeosu in South Korea as their destination, marking the first exports from the project in five months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Russia’s Rosneft PJSC had issued a tender that closed last week to sell six prompt cargoes, mostly for November loading, said traders. Exxon had been winding down output at Sakhalin-1 since May after flagging its intention to exit the country, with Moscow terminating the company’s interests in the project and transferring it to a Russian operator. Sokol can be shipped to major refining hubs in China and South Korea in around three to five days. Some Sokol cargoes offered by Rosneft were at a discounted price to the Dubai benchmark on a delivered basis to China, according to traders involved in the Asian market who asked not to be identified as the information is private. It’s unclear whether the deals were settled, they said. Some smaller trading houses were also involved in marketing the cargoes, with buyers potentially fearing damage to their reputation or facing financing issues should they deal directly with the Russian oil company, said traders. Sokol shipments are most likely to flow to China and India, they added. The European Union is set to implement new sanctions on Moscow from early December, which will prohibit European companies from providing insurance and other important services for Russian oil shipments. That’s led to Indian refiners pausing spot purchases as they assess the potential fallout. Victor Konetsky and Vladimir Arsenyev signaled Yeosu after loading Sokol, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Yuri Senkevich has been anchored off De-Kastri since April and is likely to be the next to load Sokol, while Pavel Chernysh is en route to the port, according to Vortexa Ltd. All four vessels are shuttle tankers that are commonly used to transport cargoes of Sokol from De-Kastri to Yeosu for ship-to-ship transfers.
Sanctions are about to slam Russia’s still-booming oil export trade - The Putin regime has been enriching itself through oil exports ever since Russia invaded Ukraine. It still is. Russian oil sales continue to boom as of late October. Russian seaborne crude exports are averaging 3.4 million barrels a day this month, up 2.5% year on year, according to data from Kpler. In the eight months since the invasion, Russia’s average crude exports jumped 12% compared to the eight months prior to the invasion. The good news for those seeking to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin is that Russia’s oil gains face a serious threat in the very near future from a lack of available tankers. The bad news is that time is running out — it may have already run out — for the G7 price cap designed to keep Russia’s export volumes steady while simultaneously squeezing Russia’s profits. “It seems that a meaningful reduction in Russian exports is in the cards, at least temporarily,” warned Erik Broekhuizen, head of research at brokerage and consultancy Poten & Partners, in his latest outlook. Bruce Paulsen, a sanctions expert and partner at law firm Seward & Kissel, told American Shipper: “For the most part, shipments of oil and petroleum products are not arranged at the last minute. If guidance on [price cap] compliance doesn’t come soon, some industry players may sit on the sidelines until they can determine that shipments under the price cap are safe.” Sanctions effect imminent The EU has reduced its reliance on seaborne crude imports from Russia since the war began. According to Kpler data, EU imports of Russian seaborne crude averaged 1.1 million barrels a day in the eight months since the war began, down 31% from the eight months before the war. However, the EU was still importing an average of just over 1 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne crude this month, according to Kpler data. To comply with sanctions, volumes must fall to zero in just six weeks. In June, the EU agreed to ban seaborne imports of Russian crude starting Dec. 5 and imports of seaborne products on Feb. 5. Crucially for tanker markets, these sanctions also stipulated that no EU shipping service provider could be involved in the transport of Russian oil cargoes to non-EU nations as of those dates. The EU shipping services ban covers EU marine insurance and reinsurance providers. All-important U.K. marine insurance providers are heavily reliant on EU reinsurance. Whether directly or indirectly, insurers covering over 90% of the world’s tankers will be affected.
Oil is all that Putin has left, U.S. presidential advisor Amos Hochstein says - Oil is all Russia's economy has left following its invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, according to Amos Hochstein, special presidential coordinator for President Joe Biden."Oil is the only thing they have left in that economy … Putin has destroyed the rest of the economy," Hochstein told CNBC's Hadley Gamble Monday. "All he's got left is the stuff that comes out of the ground. He won't sell his gas to Europe anymore, so all he has is oil, so that's what funds this war." The Russian Embassy to the U.K. was not immediately available to respond to the comments when contacted by CNBC.The Russian economy shrunk by 4% year-on-year over the second quarter, and the Central Bank of Russia expects the downturn to deepen in the quarters ahead. The International Monetary Fund expects Russia's GDP to contract by 3.4% in 2022.Hochstein's comments, from the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi, come at a volatile time for energy markets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.Russia was the biggest supplier of both natural gas and petroleum oils to the EU in 2021, according to Eurostat, however gas exports from Russia to the European Union have slid this year. "Despite available production and transport capacity, Russia has reduced its gas supplies to the European Union by close to 50% y-o-y since the start of 2022," according to the International Energy Agency.
"Let's Get Out Of NATO": Discontent Soars Across Europe As Russian Sanctions Backfire - Western sanctions against Russia have been considered a powerful foreign policy tool by the US and the EU to paralyze Moscow back to the 'stone age.' Though sanctions against Moscow have entirely backfired, sparking the worst cost-of-living crisis for Europeans in a generation. In early September, we first noticed a wave of discontent sweeping across Europe as tens of thousands of people took to the city streets to protest soaring electricity bills and the worst inflation in decades. Some countries delivered relief packages to citizens to tame the anger, while other countries did not have the financial capacity to hand out checks. Tens of thousands of people have marched across metro areas in France, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Germany -- many of them are fed up with sanctions on Russia that have sparked economic ruins for many households and businesses -- but also very surprising, support for NATO's involvement in Ukraine is waning. There has been increasing awareness and dissent among Europeans about their countries' leaders prioritizing NATO's ambitions in Ukraine over their own citizens. The prioritization has been in the form of sanctions against Moscow, sparking energy hyperinflation and supplying weapons to Ukraine, which has made Moscow displeased with any country that does so. Some Europeans are now demanding NATO negotiate with Moscow to end the war so that economic turmoil can abate. Here are the latest protests across Europe of tens of thousands of people (if not more) frustrated with high inflation and crying out anti-NATO slogans.
“Nikkei-Owned Financial Times Begins to Crack on Sanctions” by Yves Smith - A journalist contact who knows the ins and outs of the Financial Times exceedingly well pinged about a new article, Japan cannot survive without Russian oil, warns trading house chief, bleating about the oil and gas sanctions, and without saying so, the going-live-soon G7 oil price cap. Yes, Japan is a member of the G7.The piece is noteworthy, as our alert colleague correctly noted, because the Financial Times has been a hardliner on Russia generally and the sanctions/economic war in particular.His remarks:Roula Khalaf was summoned to Tokyo to have this dictated to her…Khalaf is a careerist and there is no way she would have run this without being ordered to.Consider additionally:It is very unusual for the Japanese to make a stink like this. Using a venue like the Financial Times means they wanted the noisemaking to be noticed. The Japanese complain in public only after they’ve tried hard in private and gotten nowhere. This article looks to be the result of official Japan, which has sought and gotten some waivers from the oil and gas sanctions, believing it’s going to be in a very bad way without more relief.Recall that the EU version of the oil sanctions, was set to add extreme provisions, like permanently barring any vessel that violated the price cap regime from ever getting any services from EU companies, like insurance or even one assumes, resupply at an EU port.Remember further that Russia has said it simply won’t sell oil subject to a price cap regime. Experts anticipate that response would produce a big jump in oil prices. Japan is already in bad economic shape due to the yen being very weak at a time when commodity prices are high. The article points out that Japan gets 9% of its gas and 4% of its oil from Russia. Those levels may not seem like much, but as the cliche goes, you will be just as dead whether you drown in 6 inches or 6 feet of water.Or Japan’s real concern may be that the imposition of non-leaky sanctions will lead to those aforementioned big oil price increases. Simon Watkins in a new OilPrice story contends:1Oilprice.com sources: In the short term, Russia could secure at least three-quarters of the shipping needed to move its oil as usual to established buyers.However, the imposition of the price cap regime is sure to produce near-term dislocations as the work arounds (and likely longer transit processes) are implemented, so the immediate shortfalls would be greater than the “three-quarters of the shipping” suggests. Would it be mere weeks, or more on the order of months for these new mechanisms to be working smoothly?
Russian Oil Price Cap Will Not Apply To Resold Cargoes - The United States and its Western allies have agreed that a cargo of Russian oil will only be subject to the price cap mechanism at the first sale of the oil to a buyer on land, sources familiar with the ongoing discussions told The Wall Street Journal on Friday.This means that the upcoming price cap will not apply to the resale of the same Russian cargo. The price cap will not apply to a cargo of Russian crude processed into gasoline when the gasoline is sold, either.However, intermediary sales and trades of Russian oil happening at sea should be subject to the price cap, according to the Journal’s sources.The U.S. and the G7 allies and Australia are working on setting the details of the price cap before the December 5 deadline, after which the EU embargo on imports of Russian crude oil by sea enters into force. The G7 group of the most industrialized nations and the EU are looking to introduce a price cap on Russian oil, aiming to reduce Vladimir Putin’s oil revenues for his war chest. The allies will ban maritime transportation services for Russian oil unless the products are purchased at or below a certain price cap.Reports emerged this week that the G7 members had agreed to set a fixed price for Russian oil exports as a cap rather than a price set as a discount to a benchmark, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed source familiar with the discussions. The price itself has yet to be determined, the source said, adding that, according to the G7, “This will increase market stability and simplify compliance to minimize the burden on market participants.”Earlier, a price range in the mid-$60s was mentioned as a possible target for the cap as it represented the range in which Russian oil has traded before the last rally.While considering all the parameters of a price cap, the U.S. Treasury issued this week guidancethat says Russian crude oil loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading for maritime transport prior to December 5 will not be subject to the price cap if the oil is unloaded at the port of destination before January 19, 2023.
Russia Becomes India’s Top Crude Oil Supplier - Russia overtook OPEC heavyweights Iraq and Saudi Arabia to become the largest crude oil supplier to India in October, with record shipments of 946,000 barrels per day (bpd), the Economic Times reported on Wednesday, quoting estimates from energy analytics firm Vortexa. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India was a small marginal buyer of Russian crude oil. After Western buyers started shunning crude from Russia, India became a top destination for Russian oil exports alongside China. Indian refiners haven’t expressed hesitation to deal with Russia—their primary incentive to buy has been the much cheaper Russian oil than international benchmarks and similar grades from the Middle East and Africa. According to Vortexa’s estimates, India—the world’s third-largest crude oil importer—shipped in a record 946,000 bpd of crude from Russia last month, up by 8% compared to September. Total Indian imports increased by 5% month on month in October, Vortexa data cited by the Economic Times showed. Of note was that Russia surpassed both Iraq and Saudi Arabia to become the number-one crude oil supplier to India. Russian crude accounted for 22% of all Indian imports last month, while Iraq’s share was at 20.5% and Saudi Arabia’s—at 16%. Going forward, there will be a lot of uncertainties among buyers over Russia’s oil exports when the EU embargo enters into force on December 5.
India’s Sept crude oil imports fall 6.7% to 16 mn tonnes; 5.8% YoY decline - India’s crude oil imports in September fell to 16.46 million tonnes, down 6.7% from a month ago, government data showed on Friday. On a yearly basis, imports dipped by 5.8%, data from the website of the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed. The drop in intakes come against a backdrop of maintenance at refiners such as Reliance Industries and Indian Oil Corp. Russia’s share of India’s April-September crude imports rose to 17% from 0.7% a year earlier, data from sources has shown. India has emerged as Russia’s second biggest oil buyer after China, taking advantage of discounted prices as Western buyers stay away due to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Oil product imports came in lower for a second straight month, falling about 4% from a month earlier to 3.48 million tonnes in September, while exports dropped 4.8%. Of the 4.98 million tonnes of exports in September, diesel accounted for 2.69 million tonnes. India, Asia’s third-biggest economy, holds surplus refining capacity and exports refined fuels as well.
Nigeria's oil production dips as Addax workers resume strike - INDICATIONS are that the nation’s oil output may have further shrank by 22, 000 barrel per day following the resumption of strike action embarked upon by over 324 employees of Addax Petroleum Development Nigeria. It may be recalled that the Federal Government and management of the company has been unable to address the anti-labour practices and payment of their exit packages as Addax is ready to exit Nigeria. Addax is owned by China’s Sinopec Group with four Oil Mining Licences, OML 123, 124, 126 and 137. The company is operating the assets in Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited.
Uganda to begin commercial oil exploration in 2025, seeks funding - Uganda aims to start commercially pumping its oil reserves in April 2025, with China being considered as a potential source of funds to develop an export pipeline, authorities said on Tuesday. Although Ugandan officials have previously mentioned 2025 as the year for the commencement of production, it is the first time they are being specific on the month. “I hope that by April 2025 we shall see the first oil,” energy minister Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu said at a conference in Abu Dhabi. Uganda and neighbouring Tanzania are also confident they will secure funding for a planned crude export pipeline, she said. Tanzania President Samia Suluhu Hassan was expected to travel to China soon, Ssentamu said, for “the completion of the mobilisation of resources. And I know that we will get money.” “China is always ready,” she said when asked if the money would come from China. “China is always ready and I want to encourage Europe, I want to encourage America to [also] … invest in Uganda.” In February, TotalEnergies and its partner China National Offshore Oil Corporation reached a final investment decision to develop Uganda’s oilfields in the country’s west. Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni has criticised the European Union parliament after it passed a resolution urging TotalEnergies to delay the development of the pipeline by a year to explore an alternative route or alternative renewable energy projects. There has also been criticism from environmentalists about the proposed project because it runs through one of the country’s national parks. But Museveni has endorsed it, warning that he will not “allow anybody to play around” with “my oil”.
Iraq oil pipeline fire contained in Al-Abdeh - The maintenance teams of the Tripoli Oil Facilities, in cooperation with the firefighting units of the Benin-Al-Abdeh Civil Defense Center, managed to control the fire that broke out in the morning due to oil leaks from Iraq’s oil pipelines in the locality of Al-Abdeh. The holes in the pipes were closed temporarily, until work is done to replace the worn-out connections in the pipelines which is the only way to radically eliminate the risk of these leakages. Civil defense teams are currently working to cool the burning reed fields in the vicinity of these pipes, as a precaution for fear of renewed fire
OPEC Boosts Global Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC has increased its outlook for global oil demand in the medium and longer term, the group said in its 2022 World Oil Outlook released on Monday. OPEC said in the report that global oil demand will increase to 103 million barrels per day next year—an increase of 2.7 million bpd from 2022 and an increase of 1.4 million bpd from what the group predicted for 2023 last year. OPEC raised its oil demand outlook for the medium term as well, through 2027, increasing the outlook by 2 million bpd by the end of that period, compared to what the group forecasted last year. The reason for the bump in how the group sees world oil demand is the more robust recovery seen this year and next, and the shift in focus from energy transition to energy security. OPEC now sees oil demand hitting 108.3 million bpd in 2030, also up from what it forecasted for 2030 last year. In the even longer term, OPEC sees 2045 global oil demand hitting 109.8 million bpd, up from the 108.2 million bpd that it forecasted last year. OPEC sees its own market share rising, but sees OPEC’s output lower in 2027 than in 2022. In its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that was released on October 12, OPEC revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth for 2022 by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd), citing China’s Covid lockdowns, economic headwinds in developed economies, and inflationary pressures everywhere. In that report, OPEC saw world oil demand growing by 2.6 million bpd this year to average 99.7 million bpd. The cartel also slashed its oil demand growth forecast for 2023 in that report, by 360,000 bpd, expecting growth at 2.3 million bpd next year.
US backs Opec calls for more oil, gas investment - The US' top energy envoy Amos Hochstein today supported calls for investment in oil and gas to increase globally alongside spending on the transition to a lower-carbon energy system. "We hope this happens around the world," Hochstein told the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi. "Increased investment in production, investment in refining capacity and… at the same time additional investment in the [energy] transition." After weeks of tense exchanges between the US and Opec linchpin Saudi Arabia over the wider Opec+ group's decision to lower crude output quotas, Hochstein's comments put Washington on the same page as Opec, which has long called for increased oil and gas investment. UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told the Adipec conference today higher oil and gas spending will help the world navigate the energy transition and reduce the risk of today's supply crunch being experienced in the future. Al-Mazrouei was at pains to stress that increased oil and gas spending is not just an issue for Opec+ producers. "We in the UAE, as well as our fellow producers in Opec+, are keen on supplying the world with the [oil] requirements it needs. But, at the same time, we are not the only producers," he said. "Others also need to do their part in investing and encouraging investments." Opec+ — which groups Opec countries with 10 non-Opec producers led by Russia — is doing its part when it comes to investing in hydrocarbons, al-Mazrouei said. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in particular, are pursuing aggressive upstream expansions that should deliver close to 2mn b/d of additional crude capacity before the end of the decade. Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many governments in Europe and the US were pushing for a more urgent commitment to move away from fossil fuels. But Hochstein today insisted that energy investment is needed across the board. Spending on fossil fuels and cleaner energies is "not contradictory", he said. "They are just two different timelines," he said. "It may be that our climate goals are met by 2035 or 2050. But to get to those goals, we had to invest yesterday."
Oil giant Saudi Aramco's quarterly profit surges 39% on higher prices— State oil giant Saudi Aramco reported a 39% rise in net income for the third quarter year-on-year, on the back of higher crude prices and tightening global supply. Net income rose to $42.4 billion for the quarter, up from $30.4 billion the previous year and just above expectations. The Saudi company also reported an increase in free cash flow to a record $45 billion from $28.7 billion one year prior and paid out its second-quarter dividend of $18.8 billion. Its third-quarter dividend of the same amount is due to be paid out in the fourth quarter. In a statement, Aramco CEO and President Amin Nasser said the earnings and cash flow figures "reinforce our proven ability to generate significant value through our low cost, low-carbon intensity upstream production and strategically integrated upstream and downstream business." "While global crude oil prices during this period were affected by continued economic uncertainty, our long-term view is that oil demand will continue to grow for the rest of the decade given the world's need for more affordable and reliable energy," Nasser added. Aramco is not alone in predicting a continued rise in oil demand. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, on Monday raised its medium and long-term forecasts for crude demand, and said that $12.1 trillion of investment was required to meet it. Its outlook differs from that of some other bodies, like the International Energy Agency, which sees oil demand peaking sometime in the middle of the next decade, as nations attempt to transition away from fossil fuels.
Saudi Arabia may cut crude prices for Asia for Dec cargoes - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may cut the prices of most crude grades to Asia in December as weaker-than-expected fuel consumption in China amid its strict COVID-19 rules put a lid on regional demand, trade sources said. State oil giant Saudi Aramco may lower the official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light crude by about 30 to 40 cents per barrel in December, according to five respondents surveyed by Reuters. The price cut comes as China, the world’s largest crude oil buyer, extended stringent mobility controls to contain the highly transmissible Omicron variant after a surge in daily reported cases. Changes in the market structure for the Dubai Middle East oil benchmark typically guides how the Arab Light OSP is set. The premium of the first-month Dubai price over the third-month Dubai price narrowed by 59 cents during oil cargo trading in October versus the difference in September. That softening in the backwardation, or the structure when prompt prices are higher than for later delivery, suggests lower demand for oil. “Chinese demand is much weaker than expected,” said one respondent, adding that the market has already priced in the expectation that Chinese refineries will fully use their oil product export quotas. China in late September issued an additional 15 million barrels of new export quotas to boost its faltering economy, but some refineries have said the incentives to hike operational rates are low because of poor margins. The refining margin for a typical Asian refiner who processes the Middle Eastern crude fell to an average of $2.59 a barrel so far in October from $3.30 in September. DUB-SIN-REF But the respondents said that the OSP cut could be moderate given a tighter market supply. OPEC+ has planned to trim 2 million barrels per day of output from November to support oil futures prices that have dropped to about $90 from $120 three months ago on fears of a global economic recession, rising U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar. For other grades, three respondents expect the OSPs for Arab Medium and Arab Heavy to see a bigger reduction following a weaker refining cracks for fuel oil compared to middle distillate products such as diesel fuel and kerosene. FO380-SIN-DIF, GO10-SIN-DIF Saudi crude OSPs are released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting more than 9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude bound for Asia.
Oil Falls as Weak Chinese PMI Feeds Demand Fears - - Oil prices fell on Monday after weaker-than-expected Chinese business activity data brewed fresh fears over slowing crude demand, although expectations of tightening supply in the coming months helped limit losses. London-traded Brent oil futures fell 0.8% to $92.98 a barrel, while crude oil WTI Futures fell 0.5% to $87.42 a barrel by 22:31 ET (02:31 GMT). Data showed that China’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly shrank in October, as did overall business activity. The reading, coupled with a recent resurgence in local COVID-19 cases, drove widespread concerns that crude demand in the world's largest oil importer will remain subdued in the coming months. Markets remained wary of any more economic disruption in the country, after Beijing recently reiterated its commitment to maintaining its strict zero-COVID policy. The policy is at the heart of China’s economic woes this year, and has weighed heavily on Chinese crude demand, denting oil prices. This trend is expected to continue in the near-term, with Chinese industrial hubs such as Wuhan and Chengdu recently reintroducing more COVID-linked curbs. Still, losses in oil prices on Monday were limited by expectations that slowing U.S. production and supply cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will tighten crude markets in the remainder of the year. The prospect of tightening supply has helped crude markets weather headwinds from slowing economic growth. Crude prices fell sharply from two-year highs hit earlier in 2022, as markets feared that rising inflation and interest rates will weigh on global oil demand.
Oil Futures Fell on Monday on Expectations that U.S. Production Could Rise | Sprague -- Oil futures fell on Monday on expectations that U.S. production could rise even as weaker economic data out of China and the country’s widening COVID-19 curbs weighed on demand. Oil output in the United States climbed to nearly 12 million barrels per day in August, the highest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, monthly government data showed. U.S. President Joe Biden is also set to speak later in the day and call on oil and gas companies to invest some of their record profits in lowering costs for American families, a White House official said. Meanwhile, factory activity in China, the world's largest crude importer, fell unexpectedly in October, an official survey showed on Monday, weighed down by softening global demand and strict COVID-19 restrictions that hit production. December WTI settled down $1.37 or 1.56% at $86.53 a barrel however, this front month contract gained $7.04, or 8.86% on the month. Brent Crude for December delivery ended Monday’s session down 94.00 cents or 0.98% but gained $6.87 per barrel, or 7.81% to $94.83 this month. RBOB Gasoline for November delivery ended the session down 9.59 cents or 3.30% but gained 33.81 cents per gallon, or 13.67% to $2.8107 this month. ULSD for November delivery settled down 35.89 cents or 7.89% but gained 82.19 cents per gallon, or 24.40% to $4.1909 this month. OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand in the medium- and longer-term in its annual outlook and said $12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand despite the energy transition. OPEC said world oil demand will reach 103 million bpd in 2023, up 2.7 million bpd from 2022. The 2023 total demand is up 1.4 million bpd from last year's prediction. OPEC also raised its demand forecasts for the medium term to 2027, saying the figure is up by almost 2 million bpd by the end of the period from last year. It said the upward revision reflects a more robust recovery now seen in 2022 and 2023 and a "strong focus on energy security issues" leading to a slower substitution of oil by other fuels such as natural gas, whose price has increased due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. By 2030, OPEC sees world demand averaging 108.3 million bpd, up from 2021, and lifted its 2045 figure to 109.8 million bpd from 108.2 million bpd in 2021. The United Arab Emirates' Energy Minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, said that OPEC+ is keen on providing the world with the oil supply it needs, driving home the message that the alliance of top producers will always be in a position to balance markets. He said OPEC+ will always remain a trusted technical organization to balance oil supply and demand. A Reuters survey showed that oil prices will find support from OPEC+ output cuts and sanctions on Russia for the rest of the year and into the early part of 2023, however a recession could limit further gains. A survey of 42 economists and analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $101.10/barrel this year, and $95.74/barrel in 2023, up from estimates of $100.45/barrel and $93.70/barrel, respectively in September. U.S. crude forecasts were raised slightly to $96.23/barrel in 2022 and $90.39/barrel next year, from a previous forecast of $95.73/barrel and $88.70/barrel, respectively.
Crude oil prices edge lower amid China COVID-19 woes, Brent hits $92.77/bbl - Oil prices inched lower on Tuesday, extending losses of 1% from the previous session as more extensive COVID-19 curbs in China increased fears of slowing fuel demand in the world's second-largest oil consumer. Brent crude for January delivery was down 4 cents at $92.77 a barrel at 0112 GMT. The December contract expired on Monday at $94.83 a barrel, down 1%. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $86.35 a barrel. COVID-19 curbs in top crude oil importer China forced the temporary closure of Disney's Shanghai resort on Monday, while production of Apple Inc iPhones at a major contract manufacturing facility could drop by 30% in November. "With China sticking to the zero-COVID policy, the oil demand outlook overshadowed a record of US oil export data from last week," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. Strict pandemic restrictions have caused China's factory activity to fall in October and cut into its imports from Japan and South Korea. Also weighing on sentiment was the world's largest independent oil trader Vitol saying that its sees signs of oil demand destruction, ANZ Research analysts said in a note. Pressuring oil prices, US oil output climbed to nearly 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, highest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as shale companies said they do not expect production to accelerate in coming months. That is likely to lead to a rise in US crude oil stocks in the week to Oct. 28 of about 300,000 barrels, while distillate and gasoline inventories were expected to fall, a preliminary Reuters poll showed. The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute due at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration due at 10:30 a.m. (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. Brent and WTI benchmarks ended October higher, marking their first monthly gains since May after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia announced plans to cut output by 2 million bpd. OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand in the medium-and longer-term on Monday, saying that $12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand despite the transition to renewable energy sources.
Oil Spikes After Pentagon Predicts Iran Attack On Saudi Arabia Likely In "48 Hours", Iran Denies --Following Tuesday's WSJ report revealing that Saudi Arabia and its ally the United States are on high alert over a potential impending attack from Iran, the Pentagon has narrowed its assessment, saying there's credible threat of an attack "soon or within 48 hours." Oil prices spiked more than $2 on this new "48 hours" intelligence, which the Pentagon reportedly received from the Saudis, hammering tech stocks further. A subsequent and quite expected denial from Iran... ... because what will Iran say: "yup, you got us, we are about to launch an attack", reversed some of today's sharp gains.The Biden administration reaffirmed that it will not hesitate to respond... "We are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis," the National Security Council said in a statement. "We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region."
Oil up Nearly 2% as Weaker Dollar Offsets China Concerns (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Tuesday, recouping losses from the previous session, on optimism that China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, could reopen from strict COVID curbs. Brent crude for January delivery rose $1.84, or 2%%, to settle at $94.65 a barrel. The December contract expired on Monday at $94.83 a barrel, down 1%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.84, or 2.1%, to $88.37 after falling 1.6% in the previous session. An unverified note trending in social media, and tweeted by influential economist Hao Hong, said a "Reopening Committee" has been formed by Politburo Standing Member Wang Huning, and was reviewing overseas COVID data to assess various reopening scenarios, aiming to relax COVID rules in March, 2023. Hong Kong and China stocks jumped on the rumors. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman later said he was unaware of the situation. "We're getting a lot of signals in that direction and the market is responding very positively to that," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. The Brent and WTI benchmarks both registered monthly gains in October, their first since May, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, cut their targeted output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd). The OPEC+ cuts and record U.S. oil export data also support oil price fundamentals, said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng. Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, meanwhile, said that dwindling oil supply, a possible halt to release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and reinvigorated oil demand growth could also send crude back above $100 a barrel. An oil investment lag is sowing seeds for a future energy crisis, OPEC secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Tuesday. OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand in the medium and longer term on Monday, saying that $12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand. These bullish factors have offset demand concerns raised by COVID-19 curbs that lowered China's factory activity in October and cut into its imports from Japan and South Korea. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell in the latest week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. The API reported that crude stocks fell by about 6.5 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 28, they said. Gasoline inventories fell by about 2.6 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by about 870,000 barrels, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity..
WTI Holds Gains After Big Unexpected Crude Draw -Oil prices rallied today for the first time in 3 days after strong JOLTS data and rising geopolitical risks outweighed anxiety overFed-induced demand drags. Additionally renewed Zero-COVID lockdown easing rumors in China helped sentiment."Risks to energy supplies remain elevated after reports that Iran was planning an attack on targets that include Saudi Arabia and Northern Iraq," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. Meanwhile, "global economic outlook remains very fragile to a swathe of risks, and that should keep crude demand forecasts vulnerable to getting slashed, but for now energy traders remain fixated on how tight the market remains." For now, all eyes are on the API for any signs of distillates stocks rebuilding.... API
- Crude -6.53mm (+267k exp) - biggest draw since June
- Cushing +883k
- Gasoline -2.64mm
- Distillates +865k (-733k exp)
A much bigger than expected crude draw and unexpected distillates build were the highlights of the API report...WTI hovered between $88 and $88.50 and extended gains after the print... “We’re in a tale of two markets,” “The physical markets are very tight. The paper markets are pricing in bad economic news and a bad recession.” Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s suggestion that US oil companies are profiting from Russia’s war in Ukraine was “absolutely outrageous,” according to the trade group representing American oil and natural gas companies. “The statement itself was outrageous, and I would certainly hope that the President would reconsider such statements in the future,” Mike Sommers, chief executive officer for the American Petroleum Institute, told reporters Tuesday on a conference call. “A number of API member companies who have joint ventures in Russia withdrew from those before the federal government mandated those withdrawals.”
WTI Futures Slip Despite API Showing Crude Stocks Tumbled -Oil futures softened in early trade Wednesday despite the American Petroleum Institute reporting domestic crude and gasoline stockpiles tumbled well above consensus during the final week of October and the U.S. dollar extended losses against global peers on the back of mixed economic data ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's decision on interest rates. API reported commercial crude oil stocks plummeted 6.53 million barrels (bbl) last week, far exceeding calls for a 200,000-bbl decrease. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, tank farm, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, meanwhile, gained 883,000 bbl through the week ended Oct. 28, while inventory from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell 1.9 million bbl. Further details of the report showed gasoline stocks tumbled 2.64 million bbl in the reviewed week, nearly three times the expected decline of 900,000 bbl. If confirmed by government data later Wednesday morning, this would mark the third consecutive weekly drawdown from the domestic gasoline stockpiles that currently stand 6% below the five-year average. Distillate inventories added 865,000 bbl compared to an expected 800,000-bbl decline, easing some concerns over tight distillate supplies. The Energy Information Administration last reported nationwide inventories of middle distillates stand about 6 million bbl above 100 million bbl, which is assumed to be the minimum operational level for efficient midstream and downstream industry activity. Near 7:15 a.m. EDTD, NYMEX December WTI slipped $0.22 to $88.14 bbl, with Brent crude for January delivery easing $0.21 to $94.44 bbl. NYMEX December RBOB futures added $0.0028 to $2.5973 gallon, with the gasoline market remaining in backwardation through February 2023 delivery. December ULSD futures declined $0.0209 to $3.6002 gallon. Tuesday's economic data showed pockets of the economy are still surprisingly robust, strengthening the case for the Fed to move more aggressively on raising interest rates in December and February. The Labor Department's monthly survey of Job Openings and Labor Turnover showed new vacancies unexpectedly jumped by nearly 500,000 in September to 10.717 million after an August drop that some analysts thought would mark the beginning of a broader slowdown in the labor market. There were roughly 1.9 open positions for every person looking for work in September, up from 1.7 in August. The ratio has become more important for the central bank's efforts to cool the tight labor market and bring down stubbornly high inflation. When jobs are plentiful and workers scarce, employees have leverage to ask for a higher wage which puts upward pressure on inflation. the same time, a closely watched gauge of manufacturing activity in the United States posted the slowest growth in 2-1/2 years in September, with prices paid by businesses for inputs sliding for the seventh consecutive month, according to the Institute for Supply Management. ISM's manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.2 from 50.9, slightly higher than the consensus estimate for a reading of 50, a level that divides expansion from contraction.
WTI Rises After US Crude Production Slides, Gasoline Stocks Hit 8 Year Lows Oil prices pumped and dumped overnight as a big crude draw reported by API prompted gains into Asia and a statement crushing hopes of an end to China's Zero-COVID policy sent prices back down to unchanged. Today's FOMC decision and press conference are also weighing on traders desires to extend positions. “Crude trades near the top of its range, but the lack of visibility regarding the short-term direction continues to keep the market mostly rangebound,” “The demand side is torn between the prospect of a pickup in Chinese demand once Covid restrictions are lifted and worries global economic activity will continue to weaken in the coming months.” The next leg from here will likely be driven in the short-term by the official inventory/demand data until The Fed hit at 1400ET.. DOE
- Crude -3.115mm (+267k exp)
- Cushing +1.267mm
- Gasoline -1.257mm
- Distillates +427k (-733k exp)
While not as extreme as the API report, official data showed an unexpected crude draw last week (and the 3rd weekly build in a row in distillates stocks)...Graphs Source: Bloomberg Cushing inventories are steadily rising, but remain at the lowest seasonal level since 2009. Refiners are set to wind up their fall maintenance, presenting a tug once again on domestic inventories. In addition, the final tranche of SPR sales are about to conclude. Refinery utilization rebounded and is back to over the 90% mark nationwide. Rates rose after three consecutive weeks of declines as maintenance wraps up in all PADD regions.
The Energy Information Administration Reported Weekly Declines in U.S. Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories - Oil futures jumped on Wednesday, with WTI topping $90 a barrel. Prices gained support after the Energy Information Administration reported weekly declines in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, and as recent reports said Iran may be preparing an attack on Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, domestic oil production decreased from 12 million bpd to 11.9 million bpd. The decline in the domestic oil production may serve as a bullish catalyst for oil markets. Oil prices continued higher after the U.S. Federal Reserve approved an increase of 0.75 percentage points in its benchmark interest rate. December WTI tacked on $1.63, or 1.8%, to settle at $90 a barrel, the highest settlement for a front month contract. ICE Brent Crude for January delivery gained $1.51 per barrel, or 1.60% to $96.16 since October 10. RBOB Gasoline for December delivery gained 10.27 cents per gallon, or 3.96% to $2.6972, while ULSD for December delivery gained 5.63 cents per gallon, or 1.55% to $3.6774.The EIA reported that U.S. East Coast refinery utilization rates increased in the week ending October 28th to 103%, a record high. The EIA also reported that U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 0.6% on the week to 206.6 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2014. U.S. East Coast gasoline stocks fell by 900,000 barrels on the week to 50.2 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2014. Meanwhile, crude oil stocks in the SPR fell by 1.9 million barrels to 399.8 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1984.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 625,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 4th, increasing available refining capacity by 642,000 bpd.According to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil output fell in October for the first time since June on lower exports from African members and lower output from some Gulf producers after the wider OPEC+ alliance pledged a small output cut. The survey showed that OPEC produced 29.71 million bpd in October, down 20,000 bpd from September which was the highest output since April 2020. Output from the 10 OPEC members covered by the agreement fell 1.36 million bpd below their October target after a 1.32 million bpd shortfall reported for September.The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, but signaled future increases in borrowing costs could be made in smaller steps to account for the "cumulative tightening of monetary policy" it has enacted so far. The policy decision set the target federal funds rate in a range between 3.75% and 4.00%, the highest since early 2008. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, said the “ultimate level” of the Federal Reserve’s benchmark policy rate is likely higher than previously estimated. He said there is “significant uncertainty” around the level of rates needed to bring down inflation, but “we still have some ways to go.” He said the Federal Reserve could cut the size of its rate increase at its year-end policy meeting.
Oil prices fall as US Fed interest rate hike raises fuel demand concerns (Reuters) -Oil slipped on Thursday as an increase to U.S. interest rates pushed up the dollar and heightened fears of a global recession that would crimp fuel demand, though losses were capped by concern over tight supply. Brent crude dropped by $1.19, or 1.2%, to $94.97 a barrel by 1135 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.31, or 1.5%, to $88.69. Both benchmarks had gained more than $1 on Wednesday, aided by another drop in U.S. oil inventories, even as the U.S. Federal Reserve boosted interest rates by 75 basis points and Chair Jerome Powell said it was premature to consider pausing rate increases. That sent the dollar higher on Thursday, with Powell indicating that U.S. rates are likely to peak above current investor expectations. A strong dollar reduces demand for oil by making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. "Rising anxiety about stalling growth will inevitably impact global oil demand and another downward revision in the next set of forecasts is not a far-fetched idea," said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga. However, losses were capped by expectations that the oil market is set to tighten in the coming months. Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, said it was that surprising oil had proved so resilient after the move by the Fed, but he said that fundamentals have put a floor under prices. The European Union's embargo on Russian oil over its invasion of Ukraine is set to start on Dec. 5 and will be followed by a halt on oil product imports in February. Lower output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also lent price support, with a Reuters survey finding that the producer group's output fell in October for the first time since June. OPEC pumped 29.71 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, down 20,000 bpd from September, which was the highest output since April 2020. The group produced 1.36 million bpd below targets for October. OPEC and its allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, also decided to cut targeted output by 2 million bpd from this month. Another bullish factor is a potential pick-up in demand from China if Beijing eases its zero-COVID policies. Chinese policymakers pledged on Wednesday that growth was still a priority and they would press on with reforms.
Oil Futures Mixed, WTI Slides 2% as Rate Hike Lifts USD -- Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange settled mixed Thursday, as the U.S. dollar rallied for a second session following Wednesday afternoon's hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over inflation and interest rates that heightened concern the United States could tilt into recession. The U.S. dollar rallied 1.4% to a 112.804 two-week high settlement Thursday, continuing to find support a day after the Federal Open Market Committee lifted the federal funds rate by 0.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting to a target range of 3.75% to 4% -- the highest overnight bank borrowing rate since 2008. Economic projections by FOMC released in September noted a commitment by central bank officials to front-load rate hikes with a terminal rate of 4.75% to 5% by the end of 2023. While little changed in the Fed's trajectory on rates, Powell punctuated the central bank's hawkishness, stating, "There are still some significant rate increases coming before we get to the level that is sufficiently restrictive." The Fed chief added, "incoming data suggests no pattern of inflation coming down," implying a protracted period of higher interest rates. Data released Thursday supported Powell's comments, with unemployment claims barely budging despite rising interest rates and the service economy remaining in expansion territory for the 29th month in a row in October, according to the Institute of Supply Management. Adding to the market's worry, business operators reported ongoing price pressures for inputs and labor costs, confirming that inflation is becoming more entrenched in the broader economy. Service operators also reported that hiring remained a challenge and qualified workers were scarce, reinforcing Tuesday's Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey that showed new vacancies unexpectedly jumped by nearly 500,000 in September. The outlier in the oil complex was once again the December ULSD contract that advanced more than 5% on the back of tight distillate inventories on both sides of the Atlantic Basin, with demand for middle distillates expected to pick up in the winter months. Wednesday's inventory report from the U.S. Information Administration showed domestic diesel stocks rose only marginally ahead of the winter heating season and still remain some 22% below the five-year average at 106.8 million bbl. U.S. inventories remain low across the board for most petroleum products, heightening fears that the impending end of the releases from U.S. strategic reserves will remove a source of the cushion supply. Against this backdrop, the Department of Energy this afternoon announced final bids for 15.05 million bbl of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that will be released in December, which completes the 180 million bbl of SPR crude sales U.S. President Joe Biden pledged on March 31. At settlement, NYMEX December West Texas Intermediate slid $1.83 to settle at $88.17 bbl, with January Brent, the international crude benchmark, falling $1.49 bbl to $94.67 bbl. NYMEX December RBOB futures slipped $0.0033 to $2.6939 gallon, and December ULSD futures surged $0.1879 to $3.8653 gallon.
Crudes Spike as G7 OKs Price Cap, China Reopening Chatter - Oil settled Friday's session sharply higher on growing speculation China could soon scrap quarantine controls on international air travel in a first major step to ease zero-COVID policies, while the potential risk of supply disruption out of Russia tied to the G7 plan to cap the price of seaborne oil exports in response to Vladimir Putin's unprovoked war in Ukraine further boosted risk-on sentiment. After months of intense negotiations, G7 countries reached an agreement on Friday to enforce a fixed price on Russian oil exports but only at the point of first sale on land, meaning the resale of the same oil at sea won't be subject to the regulation. Additionally, sales of Russian petroleum products, such as gasoline and diesel fuel, won't fall under the price-cap plan, dropping an earlier proposal for a three-tier price cap. Many details of the agreement are still murky, including the exact price level at which Russian oil would be sold under Western shipping insurance or enforcement mechanism that governs those transactions. The original idea behind the price cap was to bar firms located in G7 countries from providing critical maritime services for the waterborne shipment of Russian oil unless the oil is sold at or below a set price cap. Because much of the world's maritime services are based in G7 countries, the Western partners were aiming to effectively dictate the price at which Russia can sell its oil on global markets. The fact that the language of the price cap agreement has been softened to the point of first transaction means G7 nations seek to avoid disruption of Russian oil flows on the global market. Russian officials repeatedly threatened to cut oil supplies to any country that participates in the G7 price cap proposal. Regardless of the final text, traders are likely to shun away from Russian oil in coming days before all rules and regulations governing sales of Russian oil are determined. The next question is what happens to an EU ban on maritime services for Russian oil shipments. So far, signs indicate EU will move forward with an embargo set for Dec. 5, but it remains unclear whether they will sign on to the G7 price cap that allows Russian oil exports to flow using European maritime services. Underpinning gains for the oil complex Friday are reports Chinese officials are moving expediently to remove some restrictions contained in Beijing's zero-COVID policy, starting with easing controls on international travelers and penalty system for airlines boarding infected individuals. The latest trigger came in the form of a transcript attributed to former state official Zeng Guang, who said at an investment conference organized by Citigroup in Hong Kong that Beijing will substantially change its zero-COVID policy next year. U.S. dollar plummeted more than 2% against a basket of foreign currencies to 110.774, with the offshore yuan strengthening more than 1% in Asian trading to a one-week high of 7.2441 per U.S. dollar. Stocks in Shanghai and Hong Kong posted their best week since at least July 2020. The reaction underlines how sensitive markets are to the so-called "reopening trade" as investors blamed Beijing's COVID controls for the cratering consumer spending and faltering economy since the pandemic broke out in early 2020. At settlement, NYMEX December West Texas Intermediate spiked $4.44 to $92.61 bbl, with January Brent, the international crude benchmark, surging to $98.57 bbl, up $3.90 bbl. NYMEX December RBOB futures advanced $0.0409 to $2.7348 gallon, and December ULSD futures rallied $0.0495 to $3.9148 gallon.
Oil up as Robust U.S. Jobs Surprisingly Gut Dollar; Russia Price-Fix Adds to Mix -- US jobs numbers overshot expectations again in October but the hedge funds that typically send the dollar rallying on that chose this time to hammer down the greenback — handing a win to oil and the rest of the commodities complex. News that G7, or the Group of Seven rich nations, along with Australia have agreed to set a fixed price — rather than adopting a floating rate — on Russian oil later this month made it a complete storm for oil bears. Futures of New York-traded WTI, or West Texas Texas Intermediate, and London-traded Brent surged as much as 5% at Friday’s close as oil bulls found their rhythm after being stymied for days over news of COVID lockdowns in top oil importing nation China. Both crude benchmarks had also slumped on Thursday in a belated reaction to the Federal Reserve’s renewed pledge from a day earlier to keep raising interest rates to curb inflation at four-decade highs. The Fed’s stance then had driven the Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, to a three-week high of 113.035 on Thursday. But on Friday, the Dollar Index dropped to below 111 at one point despite the United States adding 261,000 jobs last month in its October nonfarm payrolls report, almost 35% more than the 195,000 anticipated by economists. “If the dollar continues to slide here, oil’s strength could be relentless,” Moya added. WTI settled up $4.44, or 5%, at $92.61 a barrel. The session high was $92.81, marking a nine-week high after the U.S. crude benchmark breached $90 this week for the first time since Oct. 11. WTI was headed for a similar percentage gain on the week. WTI rose 5.4% on the week. Brent settled up $3, or 3%, at $97.67 per barrel. The global crude benchmark hit a session high of $98.74 earlier. Brent's weekly gain about 2%. Friday's oil rally was further fueled by fears of the Kremlin’s reprisal to the G7 plan to cap the selling price of Russian oil in order to limit Moscow's ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine without throttling global supplies. Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened in the past not to deal with countries that participate in the G7 plan or to suspend crude exports altogether, in retaliation against the scheme.
Gas Tanker Blast Leaves At Least 9 Dead, Many Wounded At Baghdad Soccer Field - At least nine people were killed and twenty more wounded when a gas tanker exploded in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad on Saturday, national security services said in a statement. "The explosion is an accident and not an act of terrorism," commander of security forces in Baghdad, Ahmad Salim, said. Most of the victims were soccer players participating in an amateur game on a field nearest the blast in a bustling eastern part of the city. However, conflicting reports pointed to the possibility of a car bomb having been denoted, or other IED which triggered the petrol tanker explosion.An AFP correspondent cited that many area windows were blown out, with extensive damage to nearby parked vehicles. "We were at home and felt a very strong blast and a smell of gas" an eyewitness told AFP."It felt like we were suffocating," the local resident added. "Our doors and windows were blown out."Iraq’s recently-elected president, Abdul Latif Rashid, vowed to launch an investigation to determine what happened and who was responsible. In an initial report, Reuters gave an account that appeared to conflict with Iraqi authorities saying it was 'accidental'. "The explosion took place in a garage near a football stadium and a café, when an explosive device attached to a vehicle detonated, leading to another explosion of a gas tanker that was close by, the security sources said," Reuters wrote. Shrapnel damaged surrounding residential buildings. Other reports too have questioned whether it was an attack or the result of accidental detonation: "Security officials, speaking to Associated Press on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said it was unclear whether the explosion was a technical failure or targeted attack."
Iraq Monthly Roundup: 105 Killed in October - During October, at least 105 people were killed, and 239 were wounded. The number of dead fell significantly from last month. In September, 179 people were killed and 294 people were wounded.Militant-related violence left 58 dead and 82 wounded. At least 43 civilians were killed, and 58 more were wounded. Eight security personnel were killed, and 24 were wounded. Also, seven militants were killed.The conflict involving Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (P.K.K.) continued in northern parts of Iraq. At least 45 P.K.K. members were killed, and six more were wounded. At least two Turkish soldiers died as well. Also, one civilian was wounded.Anti-government protests commemorating the October 2019 protests took place at the beginning of the month. About 150 people were wounded in them.
Rolling blackouts continue in Ukraine as government works to repair, stabilize grid before winter - Seated at the dinner table with his wife in a village on the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv, Yaroslav Vedmid can’t count the number of times they’ve eaten in the dark since Russian attacks triggered the blackouts beginning in early October. Moscow has openly declared its intention to target the country’s energy infrastructure and drive the nation into the cold. “When you’re relying on electricity, the worst thing is that you can’t plan … Psychologically it’s very uncomfortable,” said Vedmid, a 44-year-old business owner in Bilohorodka. The cuts are getting longer — nearly 12 hours of outages a day, he said. So far, Russia has destroyed about 40 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, affecting 16 regions, according to the Ukrainian government. The latest assault came Monday, when a massive barrage of Russian cruise missile and drone strikes hit Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, knocking out water and power supplies in apparent retaliation for what Moscow alleged was a Ukrainian attack on its Black Sea fleet. In Kyiv, some 80 percent of consumers in the city of 3 million were left without water because of damage to a power facility Monday. By Tuesday, water was fully restored as well as some power. Kyiv region governor, Oleksiy Kuleba said that 20,000 apartments in the region remained without power. The unpredictable rolling blackouts are increasing as the government scrambles to stabilize the energy grid and repair the system ahead of winter. The cuts add another layer of angst and uncertainty to a population already struggling with the stress of nearly nine months of war. To try to ease people’s burdens, energy companies are publishing daily schedules of when neighborhoods won’t have power. But it’s not consistent, especially as strikes intensify. Last week a power station in the central region was damaged, causing an emergency shutdown and prompting the government to warn citizens of tougher and longer outages. “Unfortunately, the destruction and damage are serious,” Kyiv region Gov. Oleksiy Kuleba said in a Telegram post. “It is necessary to prepare for emergency power outages for an indefinite period,” he said. Across the capital, residents are stocking up on heaters, blankets, warm clothing and power banks to charge electronics. While most say they’re willing to bear the brunt of the blackouts for the sake of the war, the frequency and fluidity of the outages are taxing.
Ukraine sees post-war reconstruction costs nearing $750 billion - PM - Ukraine estimates the cost of post-war national reconstruction at nearly $750 billion so far, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Monday. He made the comments in a speech to a German-Ukrainian business forum at which he touted the investment potential of the Ukrainian agriculture sector and thanked Berlin for providing Kyiv with air defences.
Much Of Ukrainian Capital Without Power & Water After New Russian Airstrikes -- Much of the Ukrainian capital of Kiev is without electricity or water, after the latest round of major Russian airstrikes on Monday. The Russian military announced 'successful' strikes on multiple of the country's vital infrastructure facilities. "The Russian Armed Forces continued to launch strikes with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons against Ukrainian military and energy facilities," the Defense Ministry said. "The goals of the strikes were successful. All assigned objects were hit." Meanwhile, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed direct hits on 18 sites - most of which were connected to the nation's energy supply. These ramped up attacks have created a growing sense of panic with temperatures plunging and winter approaching."Missiles and drones hit 10 regions, where 18 sites were damaged, most of them energy-related," Shmyhal stated on Telegram. "Hundreds of settlements in seven regions of Ukraine were cut off." Facilities in Cherkasy and Kirovohrad also came under attack. Ukraine's military said it intercepted projectiles over the Lviv region, which spared this western part of the country from damage.The Washington Post noted there are "power outages continuing in the Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions," and others. The Post listed some of the below regions impacted by large-scale power outages and water supply disruptions:
- Kyiv region: Russian strikes damaged buildings, and rescuers are searching for victims, the regional police said. Attacks left 80 percent of the capital without water and are likely to cause sustained power outages, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
- Kharkiv: Two strikes hit critical infrastructure facilities in the eastern city, causing problems with the water supply and affecting the public transit network, the mayor said.
- Zaporizhzhia region: An infrastructure facility was struck by rockets, the local governor said, prompting warnings from officials in the southern region that energy supplies there could also be affected.
- Cherkasy region: Some of the region lost power after air attacks on infrastructure facilities, the military administrator said.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba condemned the attacks as more war crimes: "Another batch of Russian missiles hits Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Instead of fighting on the battlefield, Russia fights civilians," he tweeted.
Rolling blackouts continue in Ukraine as government works to repair, stabilize grid before winter - Seated at the dinner table with his wife in a village on the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv, Yaroslav Vedmid can’t count the number of times they’ve eaten in the dark since Russian attacks triggered the blackouts beginning in early October. Moscow has openly declared its intention to target the country’s energy infrastructure and drive the nation into the cold. “When you’re relying on electricity, the worst thing is that you can’t plan … Psychologically it’s very uncomfortable,” said Vedmid, a 44-year-old business owner in Bilohorodka. The cuts are getting longer — nearly 12 hours of outages a day, he said. So far, Russia has destroyed about 40 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, affecting 16 regions, according to the Ukrainian government. The latest assault came Monday, when a massive barrage of Russian cruise missile and drone strikes hit Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, knocking out water and power supplies in apparent retaliation for what Moscow alleged was a Ukrainian attack on its Black Sea fleet. In Kyiv, some 80 percent of consumers in the city of 3 million were left without water because of damage to a power facility Monday. By Tuesday, water was fully restored as well as some power. Kyiv region governor, Oleksiy Kuleba said that 20,000 apartments in the region remained without power. The unpredictable rolling blackouts are increasing as the government scrambles to stabilize the energy grid and repair the system ahead of winter. The cuts add another layer of angst and uncertainty to a population already struggling with the stress of nearly nine months of war. To try to ease people’s burdens, energy companies are publishing daily schedules of when neighborhoods won’t have power. But it’s not consistent, especially as strikes intensify. Last week a power station in the central region was damaged, causing an emergency shutdown and prompting the government to warn citizens of tougher and longer outages. “Unfortunately, the destruction and damage are serious,” Kyiv region Gov. Oleksiy Kuleba said in a Telegram post. “It is necessary to prepare for emergency power outages for an indefinite period,” he said. Across the capital, residents are stocking up on heaters, blankets, warm clothing and power banks to charge electronics. While most say they’re willing to bear the brunt of the blackouts for the sake of the war, the frequency and fluidity of the outages are taxing.Ukraine Civilians Wait In Long Lines For Fresh Water As Infrastructure Destroyed -There is an old lesson of warfare that says "never believe your own propaganda." After the initial Russian strikes against Ukraine's power grids and infrastructure the general narrative was that Russian cruise missiles and drones were ineffective, inaccurate and that the country's utilities would be back up and running in no time. The message was reticent of previous propaganda out of Ukraine which requires constant theatrics of impending victory. As long as they act as if they are winning, billions in NATO dollars will continue to flow.Russian tactics were decidedly restrained in the early months of the conflict, with the Kremlin mostly avoiding precision attacks on vital resources, including power, water and internet. This is a departure from traditional military doctrine, which the US followed when it invaded Iraq and decimated vast segments of their grid utilities at the onset of the war. The Russian pull-back to lines in the Donbas region was a clear indication that their strategy was about to change and that wider strikes were inevitable. Now, Ukraine's grid amenities are being systematically destroyed, and it is reported that Ukrainians in major cities like Kyiv are lining up for blocks daily just to fill a few meager jugs with fresh water at city well pumps.The lack of access to utilities changes the dynamics of the war drastically. With winter looming, millions of civilians will face cold months without electric heat, light or easy access to water and food. The predictable end result of this will likely be a flood of refugees into Europe.
Opinion | Ukrainians are fighting cold and darkness, too - Millions of ordinary Ukrainians are fighting a new war this month, far from the front lines. They’re fighting cold and darkness rather than enemy soldiers and bullets and artillery. But if the first results are any indication, they’ll be up to the task. To see what this war looks like for many of us, you just have to step into an elevator. Natalia Horban, 36, and her 18-month-old daughter Alina returned to their apartment building after a late morning walk last week. They arrived 10 minutes before noon, when a scheduled blackout was supposed to start. But no sooner had they entered their elevator than the power gave out. The emergency button didn’t work, and neither did the phone. Natalia began to bang on the door, and the concierge downstairs heard her and called the emergency services. If things had gone differently, the mother and her child could have spent up to five hours in the elevator. As it happened, they only spent two. It was no fun, to be sure. But at least they had a bit of support: a box left in the elevator containing some food and sedatives. They didn’t end up using any of the supplies, but just having the box in the elevator was a great comfort. “I didn’t use the box, but psychologically it made the whole thing a lot easier,” Natalia told me. Earlier this month, Russia launched a bombing campaign specifically targeting civilian infrastructure all across Ukraine — including cities close to the western border. Since then, Ukrainians have been adapting to radically changed conditions. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that about 4 million people were subjected to electricity rationing only on Oct. 28. It might be worse as Russia has attacked even more electricity facilities since. Recently, as much as 80 percent of Kyiv residents have found themselves without running water. Ukrainian roads, even national highways, have lost their lighting; there is little light on the city streets. Villages, towns and cities don't have electricity for hours almost every day. So how do ordinary Ukrainians fight back? We are stocking up on warm clothes and candles and giving each other batteries and power banks as gifts. We are turning off appliances to economize on electricity. In our building, it was the local barber shop that started the emergency box in the elevator, filling it with cookies, water, garbage bags and medicine. On the first day, people in three entryways of the building got stuck in the elevators during power outages. The next day, residents filled the boxes with bottled water, chocolates, fruit and makeshift first-aid kits.
NBI Suspects Ukrainian Arms Might Be in Hands of Gangs - Finland's National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) said it has received preliminary information that criminals in Finland might have captured military arms, such as assault rifles, meant for Ukrainian forces. "Weapons shipped [by various countries] to Ukraine have also been found in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands," NBI Detective Superintendent Christer Ahlgren told Yle. International media outlets have reported that the European law enforcement agency Europol has anticipated criminal gangs stashing weapons in border areas. This past summer Europol issued a statement (siirryt toiseen palveluun) warning that the proliferation of firearms and explosives in Ukraine could lead to an increase in firearms and munitions trafficked into the EU via established smuggling routes or online platforms. "We've seen signs of these weapons already finding their way to Finland," Ahlgren said. The NBI has not released more details about weapons trafficked to Finland, saying that investigations are ongoing. The routes and contacts for trafficking illegal weapons from Ukraine to Finland are, however, already in place, according to Ahlgren. "Three of the world's largest motorcycle gangs—that are part of larger international organisations—are active in Finland. One of these is Bandidos MC, which has a unit in every major Ukrainian city," he explained. "We know that contacts and routes are being warmed up, so that they're in place." Since the war in Yugoslavia, Balkan countries have dealt with illegal arms trafficking. "Ukraine has received a large volume of weapons and that's good, but we're going to be dealing with these arms for decades and pay the price here," Ahlgren said. He also pointed out that the war in Ukraine has created more work for law enforcement, but this has not translated into additional police funding, according to a government report published this past February. Police are, for example, tasked with following up on a growing number of drone sightings near critical infrastructure. "Decision makers have forgotten that the war in Ukraine has also increased police work," he said, alluding to Finnish entry points.
Finland Says Ukraine Arms Ending Up In Hands Of Criminal Gangs - Critics of the massive US weapons pipeline to Ukraine have long pointed out there's no accountability or appropriate tracking once those arms enter the country, presenting ripe opportunities for criminals, terrorists, or lucrative black market arms sellers to take advantage. So it was perhaps only a matter of time before headlines like this began showing up in international publications - "NBI: Arms sent to Ukraine in criminal hands." The NBI is Finland's federal National Bureau of Investigation, and the report is from Finland's national public broadcasting company Yle, and provides confirmation that arms intended for Ukrainian forces are going outside the country.The recovered weapons featured in the weekend national police statement include assault rifles which were meant for Ukrainian forces. Further neighboring countries have recorded instances of West-provided arms proliferating from the Ukrainian battlefield and into the hands of criminals in neighboring Sweden and Denmark as well."Weapons shipped [by various countries] to Ukraine have also been found in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands," NBI Detective Superintendent Christer Ahlgren was quoted in the Finnish publication as saying. "We've seen signs of these weapons already finding their way to Finland," Ahlgren added. Some of this illicit arms trafficking is being brokered in online forums frequented by criminal gangs. According to more from the NBI lead investigator: "Three of the world's largest motorcycle gangs—that are part of larger international organizations—are active in Finland. One of these is Bandidos MC, which has a unit in every major Ukrainian city," he explained. "We know that contacts and routes are being warmed up, so that they're in place." "Ukraine has received a large volume of weapons and that's good, but we're going to be dealing with these arms for decades and pay the price here," Ahlgren added.
Thieves’ Paradise in Kiev — IMF Admits It Doesn’t Know How Much Ukraine Has Received of $35 Billion in Promised Foreign Cash, or Where the Money Was Spent - A new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reveals that the Ukraine has become a thieves’ paradise in which corporate loan defaults are written off; embezzlement from banks is not traced; the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) no longer audits the country’s bank liabilities and reserves; and the IMF admits it cannot tell how much of the $35 billion in foreign cash grants and loans promised to Kiev has been disbursed, or to whom.“Disbursements of all committed funds over the remaining months of the year is urgently needed and will make a difference,” declares Kristalina Georgieva (lead image), the IMF Managing director since 2019, “especially in light of the recent horrific damage to energy infrastructure.” Georgieva was speaking in Berlin on October 25.“In a best-case scenario,” she added, “we estimate that Ukraine’s financing needs would be about $3 billion per month. When we incorporate some additional financing for higher gas imports and some repair of critical infrastructure, we quickly reach $4 billion per month. The recent missile attacks, which have clearly caused much more damage, not only confirms the validity of these estimates but leads us to consider $5 billion upper range.”However, in a 32-page IMF staff report on the state of Ukrainian budget finance and the risk of system-wide financial collapse, the Fund experts have concluded that “large-scale forbearance with a delayed recognition of NPLs [commercial bank non-performing loans] and the suspension of NBU enforcement actions and audits of financial statements make a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the war difficult and uncertain.” The report has been released at this link on the IMF website.“Uncertainty” is IMF officialspeak for black hole. “The balance of probabilities,” according to the staff paper dated October 3, “would suggest that Ukraine has an unsustainable level of debt.” According to the Fund rules, this should suspend or stop IMF and all other foreign government cashflows.Georgieva and the IMF board, dominated by the US, say otherwise. The black hole, the staff report goes on to say, is “unique to the extreme circumstances now prevailing in Ukraine, [so] very high uncertainty makes it difficult, at present, to estimate with sufficient precision the impact of the war on the debt outlook, and what would be required to restore sustainability.”Instead, they have accepted a promise issued in a letter to the Fund dated October 1 from the Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko and NBU Governor Kirill Shevchenko. “We commit to undergoing a new safeguards assessment of the National Bank of Ukraine and will continue providing IMF staff with the NBU’s audit reports and authorize its external auditors to hold discussions with staff.” This is a future promise. The NBU audit reports already received by the Fund in Washington ought to show exactly how much foreign cash has been received at the NBU, and what has happened to it in the disbursement throughout the Ukrainian public finance system. They don’t. In fact, the staff report tables show “disbursed and prospective official financing” conflating the two numbers together, and treating both as imprecise and unreliable because they are “2022 proj[ected].”
Clashes with police during massive anti-government protests in Chisinau, Moldova - Massive anti-government protests are again taking place in Chisinau, the capital and largest city of the Republic of Moldova. Some reports mention more than 65 000 people took to the streets of the capital on October 30, calling for the resignation of President Sandu and the normalization of relations with Russia. The protesters clashed with the police, resulting in the detention of several opposition politicians. Protesters in Chisinau clash with police. Protesters demand that trade with Russia resume. Moldovans do not want to starve and freeze for Zelensky and Ursula von der Leyen. On the same day, massive anti-government protests took place in several cities across Germany. On October 31, Eurostat announced that the eurozone inflation rate in October hit a new record high of 10.7%. The main driver is energy – a result of sanctions against Russia.
Foxconn Ordered To Restore Output Despite COVID Closed Loop Lockdowns -The health authority in China’s Zhengzhou has reportedly ordered Foxconn's "iPhone City" to restore its production despite being stuck in a Covid "closed loop" lock down that we wrote about several days ago. Bloomberg is reporting early Monday morning that the site is being asked to "implement strict Covid-19 prevention measures" upon restarting production and that the company will bear main responsibility" for its production under its closed loop format. Recall, just days ago we wrote that the lockdowns were so bad that some Foxconn employees were "scuffling" over food rations and that Covid cases at Foxconn's main factory resulted in the facility going into a "closed loop" lockdown to begin with.The lockdown means that employees can't leave the campus and are tested regularly for Covid. After the lockdown, "food has become a source of unrest", we wrote. Cafeterias at the manufacturing site were shut down and workers on assembly lines were given "meal boxes". Some employees who have remained locked down in their dormitories were given items like bread and instant noodles. The origins of Covid on the compound are unknown, but workers in numbers up to a dozen can share "cramped living quarters", the report says. Bloomberg said that conflicting reports indicated that isolated workers may have been deprived of proper meals.
Workers are fleeing from Foxconn, China's biggest iPhone factory, by climbing over fences and walking down highways on foot amid COVID fears, photos and videos show - --Workers at the world's largest iPhone factory in China are fleeing the facility in droves, amid fears of severe COVID-19 restrictions following an outbreak, according to reports.The facility, located in in Zhengzhou city in the central Chinese province of Henan, employs over 200,000 workers. They make the majority of of the world's iPhones. The facilities were hit by a COVID-19 outbreak, which triggered strict pandemic containment curbs under China's Covid-zero policy and worsened living conditions, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing five workers.A risk of food shortages became a source of unrest, as only those working on production lines were provided with meal boxes, Bloomberg said on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. Workers infected with COVID-19, or those who feared leaving their dormitories, were just provided with basic supplies such as bread and instant noodles, the media outlet reported.Dramatic photos and videos of Foxconn workers escaping the Zhengzhou compound have made their way online. One video appears to show the workers carrying bags of their belongings while making their way out on foot. A video, posted by BBC's China Correspondent Stephen McDonell, appears to show workers climbing over fences to escape the facility. Foxconn, also known as Hon Hai Technology Group in China and Taiwan, said in a statement to Insider that it is "very aware that under the current situation, it is a protracted battle for safeguarding the health and safety of more than 200,000 employees in Foxconn's Zhengzhou park." The company did not make any reference to the social media postings.Foxconn said it's continuing to implement pandemic prevention measures in Zhengzhou park, including setting up a 24-hour hotline for employees. It added that the outbreak is stabilizing and there's ample supply of daily necessities.
North Korea Launches Record Number Of Missiles, Prompting Response From South --North Korea has just fired off the highest number of missiles ever recorded in a day as far as its recent history of threatening test launches. South Korea's defense ministry recorded as many as 23 short-range missiles fired to the east and west of the peninsula on Wednesday, including one that landed close to the south's territorial waters, said to be a first going back to 1945. Of the missile that landed close, "JCS said the missile landed in international waters 167 kilometers (104 miles) northwest of South Korea’s Ulleung island, about 26 kilometers south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) – the de facto inter-Korean maritime border that North Korea does not recognize," as cited in CNN.At least one missile also fell just outside Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), according to Tokyo officials. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a written statement, "This is the first time since the two Koreas split that a ballistic missile fell close to our waters, south of the NLL."Japan's Defense Ministry issued a statement saying, "North Korea has rapidly escalated its provocations, launching more than a dozen missiles today alone and reportedly firing more than 100 artillery shells into the Japan sea since announcing an extremely provocative statement earlier in the day."The launches set off the air raid warning system on a South Korean island which lies 75 miles east of the Korean Peninsula in the Sea of Japan: An air raid warning on Ulleung island, located about 120 kilometers east of the peninsula, was lifted about 2 p.m. local time on Wednesday. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said the North Korean test was an "effective territorial encroachment."
India's central bank starts pilot digital currency program -India's central bank started a pilot program of its digital currency Tuesday, allowing select banks to use it for settling secondary-market transactions in government securities. Several lots of bonds were traded, with data from Clearing Corp. of India Ltd. showing 7.38% 2027 debt and 7.26% 2032 bonds were among the first to change hands using the new form of currency. Nine banks are participating in the pilot.The e-rupee is set to be tested for retail use in select locations within a month, the Reserve Bank of India had said Monday. The limited rollout comes a day after Singapore's monetary authority unveiled trials of a digital version of its local dollar. The central banks of China, the euro area, the Bahamas and others have been experimenting in the field, while many others are examining ways to quell the threat to financial stability from private digital currencies. It "will provide the users the same experience of dealing in currency in digital form, without any risks associated with private cryptocurrencies," the RBI said earlier in a concept note. Central bank digital currencies, while providing the benefits of virtual currencies, will also ensure consumer protection "by avoiding the damaging social and economic consequences of private virtual currencies."
World’s Second-Largest Container Carrier Sees Global Trade Slowing -- Europe is nearing a recession, and the U.S. may be right on its heels, the world’s second-largest container carrier told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday. Recession fears have put a cap on oil prices as analysts mull just how deeply a recession would cut into the demand for the commodity that is stealing the political limelight in Russia, OPEC countries, and the United States. And A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S—which controls one-sixth of the world’s container trade—sees global trade slowing between 2% and 4% in a stark warning for not just the container industry but the oil and gas industry as well. A recession, according to Moller-Maersk, is a near certainty in Europe, thanks in no small part to the war in Ukraine and the looming energy crisis. “It’s really hard to be very optimistic with a war on our doorstep and a bigger energy crisis this winter so that is impacting consumer confidence and therefore also demand,” Maersk CEO Soren Skou said in an interview on Bloomberg Television, adding that global trade was moving backward. “It’s quite likely that we either are or will soon be in a recession, certainly in Europe but potentially also in the US.” Moller-Maersk’s share prices dropped in early trading on the publication of the gloomy forecast that sees “plenty of dark clouds on the horizon,” its Q3 earnings report read. Moller-Maersk sees the global container market broadly flat to negative next year, skewed to the downside. “We will see where this lands or normalizes.”
Bolsonaro hasn’t conceded to Lula. Is he following the Trump playbook? — Brazil and its president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the winner of Sunday’s election, woke up Monday to a question familiar to Americans: Will the loser concede?In the tightest presidential election in Brazilian history, following a bitterly fought campaign that deepened divisions in Latin America’s largest nation, President Jair Bolsonaro has remained out of public view since 8 p.m. Sunday, when the Superior Electoral Court declared Lula the winner of the second and final round. Bolsonaro, a close ally of former president Donald Trump, known for his fiery rhetoric and incendiary missives on social media, has opted for a response that for him has been extremely uncommon: silence.“Starting [Monday] I need to know how we’re going to govern this country,” Lula told supporters late Sunday. “I need to know if the president we defeated will let there be a transition.” He’s set to take office in January.On Monday afternoon, the Brazilian outlet Folha de São Paulo reported that Bolsonaro’s allies had drafted a concession speech, and the president was expected to deliver it Monday. The content of the speech was unclear; Bolsonaro was expected to claim he was a victim of injustice, but would not challenge the results.However, as of Monday night, Bolsonaro had still not spoken, even as his supporters set up 200 road blockades in 18 states, and observers warned of the potential for further unrest. In Telegram groups, Bolsonaro supporters were calling for occupations on Tuesday of more highways, avenues and entrances to military barracks.The Federal Highway Police — close allies of Bolsonaro who allegedly slowed down voting Sunday in areas with heavy backing for Lula — said they had dispatched forces to the protests. But amid claims they were failing to act, federal prosecutors demanded further information on their response.
In First Appearance Since Election, Bolsonaro Refuses To Concede, Vows To Follow Constitution - Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro finally spoke publicly for the first time since losing Sunday's election by a narrow margin. Many expected, or were hoping, for a concession speech - but that didn't happen. But it appears the short press event itself was all about the optics of accepting the loss. He vowed to "follow the Constitution" and called for "order" in the country- and yet didn't explicitly concede nor did he congratulate declared winner Lula da Silva on victory for the Brazilian presidency, which he's expected to take over on January 1st. At the same time Bolsonaro didn't contest the result either. As one Brazilian national outlet said of the very short speech, "Jair Bolsonaro has not said whether he will accept the election result. He didn't mention Lula and he didn't even congratulate the new elected president. It was a subtle pronouncement."
Mass demonstrations in Germany - Mass demonstrations took place in several cities across Germany on October 30, 2022. The people on the streets are demanding an end to sanctions on Russia which causes the destruction of their economy and inflation. While mass media outlets again report just a couple of hundred people attending the protests, there were tens of thousands of people protesting on the streets of Europe’s largest economy yesterday. Some of the protesters said their so-called leaders had enough time to make positive decisions but they refused to make them. There’s something ultimately powerful when such huge masses of people come together with one unified goal. Euro area annual inflation hit a new record high of 10.7% in October 2022. This is up from 9.9% in September, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in October.
Eurozone inflation hits record high of 10.7% - recession risks spreading - Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 10.7% in October 2022, up from 9.9% in September, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in October (41.9%, compared with 40.7% in September), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (13.1%, compared with 11.8% in September), non-energy industrial goods (6.0%, compared with 5.5% in September) and services (4.4%, compared with 4.3% in September).1 The 10.7% inflation rate for the month of October represents the highest-ever reading since the formation of eurozone. “Inflation surged again in October and are a proper Halloween nightmare for the European Central Bank (ECB),” analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics told CNBC.2 Salomon Fiedler, an economist at Berenberg, said the “continuing surge in consumer prices and still-resilient domestic demand in the summer indicate a risk that the ECB may hike rates by 75 basis points in December, rather than the 50 basis points we currently expect.” “Recession risks are spreading,” Spanish central bank Governor Pablo Hernandez De Cos said today.3 “Decisive action by us in the current juncture will support medium-term growth, by reducing inflationary pressures and avoiding a de-anchoring of inflation expectations.”
Bank of England Hikes 75 Basis Points, Most since 1989, to 3%. Hopes Raging Inflation Will “Fall Sharply” in mid-2023. If Not, “Will Respond Forcefully” --The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted today by 7-2 to raise its Bank Rate by 75 basis points to 3.0%, the largest rate hike since 1989, bringing the interest rate to the highest level since 2008. One member voted for a 50-basis-point hike, and another voted for a 25-basis-point hike.This maintains the BOE’s spot between the ECB and the Fed: The ECB last week raised its deposit rate by 75 basis points to 1.5%; and the Fed yesterday raised its federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 4.0% at the upper end of the target range.The BOE has a page for regular people that is not covered with central-bank mumbo-jumbo. And this is what it said to explain its big rate hike to the people of the UK: Inflation is too high. It is well above our 2% target. High energy, food and other bills are hitting people hard. If high inflation continues, it will hurt everybody. Low and stable inflation helps people plan for the future.Raising interest rates is the best way we have to bring inflation down. We know that many people are facing higher borrowing costs. In particular, many households face higher mortgage rates. And some businesses face higher loan rates. It’s our job to make sure that inflation returns to our 2% target. This month we have raised our interest rate to 3%. In total, since December 2021, we have increased our interest rate from 0.1% to 3%.What will happen to interest rates will depend on what happens in the economy. At the moment, we expect inflation to fall sharply from the middle of next year. And it provided this inflation chart:
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